Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front moving through the area this afternoon. Much drier and more stable conditions for Wednesday as upper ridge begins to build across our western CWA.
Upper level low propagates eastward. High pressure moves in by later in the day on Wednesday.
Upper trough along the eastern seaboard and ridge across the Mississippi Valley. Low pressure developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A short wave trough may rotate southeast through base of trough along coast enhancing lift across the region late this afternoon and evening. The high resolution models focus convection near this surface boundary. Muggy conditions expected overnight with temperatures falling into the low and mid 70s.
After the upper low exits the region Wednesday, a broad h500 ridge replaces it, bringing warmer temperatures and generally dryer conditions to the region.
354 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A cold front will be stalled nearby through Wednesday keeping the weather unsettled.
With an upper level trof moving through the region today, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area. Warmer air moves into the region on Wednesday, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the 80s for the next several days. Otherwise, the drying trend will begin to push forward over the area, leading to clearing skies, warmer temperatures, and the potential for some patchy fog over the next few days. With a slow moving upper level trof moving through the region today, expect a scattered showers/thunderstorms to continue to reside over the region into the afternoon hours. An upper level high will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in a southwest to west flow aloft over our region.
320 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a warm front advancing eastward into central Illinois. As has been advertised for the past few days, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon. CAMs are in relatively good agreement with a broken line of convection forming along/ahead of the front within this highly unstable/weakly sheared environment by mid-afternoon. Have highlighted locations west of the I-57 corridor with the highest PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Aside from the storm chances late in the day, Wednesday will be a hot and humid day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and peak heat index readings topping the 100-degree mark.
In addition, guidance suggests somewhat enlarged hodographs in the low levels with 0-3 km shear values approaching 30 kts and 0- 1 km shear values right near the warm front near 20 kts. The overnight hours look to be fairly dry aside from perhaps a few pop up showers as the warm front and strongest forcing move off to the east. In addition, could see some lingering showers as the upper level trough axis slides through.
Wednesday, very hot and humid conditions anticipated, with highs in the low to mid 90s, pushing heat index values solidly into the 100 to 105F range. Wednesday night, a weak cold front will move NW/SE across the area. Small chance PoPs continue, as better energy with an upper level trof stays mostly to our north.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees above normal, ranging from the low to mid 70s. A strong H5 ridging pattern will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 90s through mid-week, a few degrees above normal for this time of year.
A cold front is then progged to move through the area towards sunrise tomorrow shifting winds to the north. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to range from the low 60s across west central Kansas to low 70s across south central Kansas. Summer like conditions continue as an upper level high builds over the Central and Southern Rockies.
Showers and thunderstorms across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa early this afternoon are expected to push east as a mid level short wave trough and surface warm front make their way across the region. The low will drag a cold front through the state as MUCAPE values rise above 2,000 J/kg in eastern Wisconsin and surface to 3km bulk shear increases to 30 to 40 knots across much of the area. Canada border and a few short wave troughs moving through at times. The first such upper trough will exit the area Wednesday night, with northwest upper flow to follow through the end of the week.
1214 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build into Pennsylvania later today and Wednesday.
238 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 An upper low currently over Eastern Montana will move off to the east this evening. An upper level ridge and high pressure will bring dry and warmer weather on Wednesday.
Mid level high pressure across S TX is progged to shift slightly west tonight and Wed as a short wave tracks southward on the high's eastern periphery. However, the high pressure will continue to keep S TX mostly rain free, hot and humid with only a slight chance expected by Wed night. The low level moisture/RH will lead to heat indices of 105 to 109 with a few locations briefly reaching around 110 Wed afternoon.
1116 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A broad ridge will continue building across the southern half of area today as its center moves out of Texas and over New Mexico.
Weak mid level troughiness over FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico slides west and becomes a closed low over the central Gulf late Wed. At the surface - Broad low pressure in southern AL/GA slips into the northeast Gulf tongiht then tracks westward during Wed. Atlantic high pressure extending westward continues south of the Florida Keys. For Thu through next Tue: The mid level low slowly moves away from the area as ridging builds in from the Atlantic. Atlantic high pressure extending westward near the Florida Keys eases northward. Winds and seas may begin to increase after Wed/Thu as low pressure moves over the Gulf and starts to deepens.
Meanwhile high pressure will continue to build across the western US.
743 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Delmarva Coast will drift east overnight, and create a southerly flow of slightly warmer and more humid air on Wednesday.
BMickelson Previous discussion: An upper low currently over Eastern Montana will move off to the east this evening. An upper level ridge and high pressure will bring dry and warmer weather on Wednesday.
1021 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Delmarva Coast will drift east overnight, and create a southerly flow of slightly warmer and more humid air on Wednesday.
Muggy conditions expected overnight with temperatures falling into the low and mid 70s.
Upper troughing continues to dominate the weather today. As the trough rolls through the Dakotas and into MN on Wednesday, it will bring showers and thunderstorms as well as cooler temperatures. As the trough pushes east tonight and high pressure builds in, pressure rises will cause gusty winds, especially across north central SD where gusts to 45 mph are not out of the question. While still affected by the upper trough, highs will only rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, about 10 degrees below average.
Ridge of high pressure will continue to expand west and north across the Rocky Mountain region tonight and Wednesday. a trailing cold front looks to drop southeast on the eastern edge of the ridge through the Plains Wednesday. Ahead of the approaching cold front. High temps in the low/mid 90s combined with moisture pooling over the region.
1034 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Currently - A broad area of low pressure has taken shape over the northeastern Gulf Coast, while an Atlantic pressure ridge extends westward across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The lower to mid level pattern roughly mirrors the surface pattern. While a few showers were able to develop along an island cloud line over portions of the Lower and Middle Keys late this afternoon, they have long since dissipated. Temperatures are broadly in the lower 80s with dew points mostly in the mid 70s. While CAPE is not impressive, the lower level inhibition is quite weak. A broad low pressure system along the northeastern Gulf Coast and ridging through Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea will maintain light winds, becoming southeast to south overnight.
While there may be more widely scattered convection over the Cumberland Plateau and across the higher terrain along the North Carolina border, the chance for a storm to drift into the valley is not terribly high.
East of the Cascades, where clouds are a bit thinner, temperatures are rising through the 70s and some areas will end up in the low to mid 80s. The anomalously moist upper low, located about 500 miles off the WA/OR coast, will send a frontal system onshore this evening. Overnight into Wednesday, the cold front will get hung up along the coast/just offshore and this will keep a chance of showers there and over the coastal waters.
Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will gradually diminish into the evening as forcing wanes and an upper low shifts east.
318 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners region tonight into Wednesday, bringing warmer and drier conditions into western Colorado and eastern Utah. Mostly clear skies will allow for a deep layer of mixing during peak heating, however, with the ridge axis sitting over the CWA, relatively weak winds aloft will be mixed to the surface. The broad ridge of high pressure spinning over the region will keep temperatures above normal extending into the weekend.
/issued 318 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019/ Temperatures are in the low to middle 90s across the Midsouth with dew points in the middle 70s. Highs will be near or maybe degree warmer than today. A weak cold front will move across the area tomorrow night.
Weather pattern will become more summerlike in the coming days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the four corners region. In the meantime, flat high pressure ridge over the southwest will keep conditions dry, and still relatively mild the remainder of today. Tomorrow temperatures will climb several degrees warmer, ending up near to slightly above normal for the first time in about a week.
A return of monsoonal moisture will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Wednesday over the higher terrain.
Dry weather can be expected over the central California interior for the next several days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners region.
817 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 It has been another cloudy, rainy and cooler than normal July day as a broad area of low pressure continues to organize across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas may begin to increase after Wed/Thu as low pressure moves over the Gulf and starts to deepens. Mariners should monitor the forecast through the end of the week as higher seas may be possible with swells from developing tropical cyclone.
An upper level high will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in a southwest to west flow aloft over our region. Brusda Updated 609 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 (10/00Z TAF) In general, ridging dominates this TAF period. Some lingering instability in association with a trough moving eastward out of our area, is causing thunderstorm activity and rain showers to effect KLWT, intermittently causing IFR conditions in thunderstorm during the first couple of hours of this aviation forecast.
Current forecast is on track to see temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s by early Wednesday morning.
An upper level high will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in a southwest to west flow aloft over our region. Brusda Updated 550 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 (10/00Z TAF) In general, ridging dominates this TAF period. Some lingering instability in association with a trough moving eastward out of our area, is causing thunderstorm activity and rain showers to effect KLWT, intermittently causing IFR conditions in thunderstorm during the first couple of hours of this aviation forecast.
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a warm front advancing eastward into central Illinois. As has been advertised for the past few days, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon. CAMs are in relatively good agreement with a broken line of convection forming along/ahead of the front within this highly unstable/weakly sheared environment by mid-afternoon. Have highlighted locations west of the I-57 corridor with the highest PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Aside from the storm chances late in the day, Wednesday will be a hot and humid day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and peak heat index readings topping the 100-degree mark.
629 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a warm front advancing eastward into central Illinois. As has been advertised for the past few days, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon. CAMs are in relatively good agreement with a broken line of convection forming along/ahead of the front within this highly unstable/weakly sheared environment by mid-afternoon. Have highlighted locations west of the I-57 corridor with the highest PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Aside from the storm chances late in the day, Wednesday will be a hot and humid day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and peak heat index readings topping the 100-degree mark.
325 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure build into the region through the week bringing hot temperatures.
/issued 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019/ Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, an upper-level ridge was in place across the Rio Grande and Big Bend area. Tomorrow, the heat will continue for much the region as the 594dam upper ridge shifts over the Panhandle/South Plains. A few chances for afternoon thunderstorms exist across the I-10 corridor with a small weakness on the southeast periphery of the ridge. For dewpoints, it appears they will remain in the low 70s for the eastern portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley, while western portions will see dewpoints in the mid 60s.
With the proximity of low pressure system, can not rule out overnight showers, but chance too low for mention till closer to sunrise.
Temperatures are generally a few degrees warmer today, but overall the cool weather pattern persists. Cloud cover in that area is bringing locally cooler temperatures. Highs Wednesday will be another 3 to 6 degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will continue to warm through the remainder of the week as upper level ridging centered over the 4 Corners area begins to expand westward.
Large upper low centered offshore this evening pushing a frontal boundary through the Pacific northwest. The low will be moving into southern BC on Wednesday.
533 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners region tonight into Wednesday, bringing warmer and drier conditions into western Colorado and eastern Utah. Mostly clear skies will allow for a deep layer of mixing during peak heating, however, with the ridge axis sitting over the CWA, relatively weak winds aloft will be mixed to the surface. The broad ridge of high pressure spinning over the region will keep temperatures above normal extending into the weekend.
744 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A cold front will be stalled nearby through Wednesday keeping the weather unsettled.
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Breezy northwest winds gusting to 35 mph will begin fairly early this morning and last throughout the day as a diffuse cold front pushes through the region. The core of the potent parent upper- level trough will be close enough today to cause scattered rain showers, as cool temperatures aloft support shallow convection. On Thursday the pattern will begin to change as an upper-level ridge builds in the wake of Wednesday's trough.
Showers and thunderstorms across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa early this afternoon are expected to push east as a mid level short wave trough and surface warm front make their way across the region. The low will drag a cold front through the state as MUCAPE values rise above 2,000 J/kg in eastern Wisconsin and surface to 3km bulk shear increases to 30 to 40 knots across much of the area.
231 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 After scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning, cooler and drier conditions will prevail for a day or two before heat returns for late week and the weekend.
Low temperatures early this morning will range from the lower 70s across the northwestern interior sections to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas. The main story for the remainder of the week will be an area of low pressure located in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. In any event, both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a ridge of high pressure building back towards South Florida which will allow for the return of southeasterly flow during the end of the week and into the weekend.
More widespread rain chances are expected with a Thursday cold front. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected overnight under ridging. Expect little relief Wednesday night in advance of Thursday's cold front with temperatures only dropping to around 70 degrees. The cold front will be well west of the region Thursday morning, with the front across central Ohio Thursday morning and moving through on Thursday.
Highs will be a few degrees above convective temperatures, in the lower 90s. Updated at 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A potent upper level trough is forecast to drop southeast over the Ohio River Valley Wednesday night. A cold front also pushing in from the northwest should be centered over the forecast area around 12z Thu. Moderate instability on the order of 2000+ J/kg SBCAPE along with plenty of moisture will help fuel storms forced by the upper wave as well as the cold front.
1151 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners region tonight into Wednesday, bringing warmer and drier conditions into western Colorado and eastern Utah. Mostly clear skies will allow for a deep layer of mixing during peak heating, however, with the ridge axis sitting over the CWA, relatively weak winds aloft will be mixed to the surface. The broad ridge of high pressure spinning over the region will keep temperatures above normal extending into the weekend.
A narrow line of t-storms formed near the low prior to 08z and moving south. Otheriwse showers on the north and west side of the upper low will move eastward today as the low departs. though dry tongue which wrapped around the south and now east side of the upper low will cutoff moisture and allow the deformation zone rain NW of the upr low to diminish as it moves east. Low pressure with system north of Winnipeg with a front/trough southwest into NE ND late Thursday aftn/eve.
The frontal boundary should move quickly through our area and by the late evening much of the convection should be gone and the rest of the evening will be quiet with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
A cold front in Nebraska is developing convection from McCook to Broken Bow and will continue to move southward through the night. As a result cooler and slightly more refreshing air will be the case as dewpoints should fall more into the 50s up north and lower to mid 60s in the south. Summer like conditions continue as an upper level high builds over the Central and Southern Rockies.
Large upper low centered offshore this evening pushing a frontal boundary through the Pacific northwest. The low will be moving into southern BC on Wednesday. An area of low pressure off the Pacific northwest coast will move generally northward over the next couple of days. Some moisture on the eastern side of this low will bring a few showers to the eastern side of the Cascades this afternoon and evening though amounts are expected to be light.
1200 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Delmarva Coast will drift east overnight, and create a southerly flow of slightly warmer and more humid air on Wednesday.
Mid-level high pressure over South Texas will shift slightly west today. A short wave is expected to track south along the eastern edge of the high; however, chances of precipitation will remain low for most of the area through tonight.
Wednesday, very hot and humid conditions anticipated, with highs in the low to mid 90s, pushing heat index values solidly into the 100 to 105F range. Wednesday night, a weak cold front will move NW/SE across the area. Small chance PoPs continue, as better energy with an upper level trof stays mostly to our north. Thursday night should be dry with high pressure moving in. High pressure will remain firmly in control of the region through the first half of the weekend.
High pressure aloft over the southern Rockies will expand north and west through the remainder of the week.
Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring warmer air into the region with valley highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Thursday.
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a warm front advancing eastward into central Illinois. As has been advertised for the past few days, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon. CAMs are in relatively good agreement with a broken line of convection forming along/ahead of the front within this highly unstable/weakly sheared environment by mid-afternoon. Have highlighted locations west of the I-57 corridor with the highest PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Aside from the storm chances late in the day, Wednesday will be a hot and humid day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and peak heat index readings topping the 100-degree mark. The front will push through Illinois Wednesday evening, followed by cooler/less humid conditions with highs only in the lower 80s on Thursday. After that, upper ridging will build in earnest across the Midwest by the weekend.
Water vapor imagery showing upper ridge axis shunted east to along the Mississippi River as an upper trough swings northeast into the northern Plains, ushering the richest deep moisture into southeastern portions of the state. Thunderstorm activity associated with the next upper trough has been persistent over northern Wyoming with a frontal boundary pushing southeast into northwestern South Dakota at 19Z. Local observations showing little indication of convergence from any overnight outflow though dewpoints have remaining the lower to middle 70s for most areas. The potent upper trough brings rather strong summertime forcing to areas to the north though continued cold/dry advection below it keeps upstream thermodynamics more limited than recent days and another night of questions of how much convection can enter the local area.
Today, the upper level subtropical ridge will continue to migrate NW as it strengthens and eventually settles along the CO/NM border. Attendant anti-cyclonic flow around the upper high will stream drier air aloft into the region. Drier air and high pressure aloft will limit storm growth at first but, once storms get going and CAPE values become realized a few pulse severe storms could occur.
317 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Delmarva Coast will drift east overnight, and create a southerly flow of slightly warmer and more humid air on Wednesday.
The area will remain quite warm under the eastern edge of a ridge of high pressure.
A cold front in Nebraska is developing convection from McCook to Broken Bow and will continue to move southward through the night. As a result cooler and slightly more refreshing air will be the case as dewpoints should fall more into the 50s up north and lower to mid 60s in the south.
More widespread rain chances are expected with a Thursday cold front. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected under ridging. Warm and humid conditions are also expected, with highs near 90 in some locations outside of the higher terrain.
Not much precip is expected with this first wave along the warm front and mainly just some sprinkles. /SVH 06Z TAFS: A weak warm front is moving in east of the Cascades late this evening. A weak cold front passage will occur late in the afternoon and into the evening.
216 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Delmarva Coast will drift east overnight, and create a southerly flow of slightly warmer and more humid air on Wednesday.
Much warmer weather is on tap for midweek here in central and eastern Idaho.