Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Models remain fairly consistent, keeping our central plains upper low the dominant feature really through the entire week. The low will make its way into the OH valley tomorrow, then possibly transitions into a deep trough, which will remain over the eastern US into the weekend. Latest ECM however favors keeping this upper low closed off.
The upr trough to the west will provide the primary synoptic scale forcing over the near term as it moves slowly eastward but tends to become less coherent over the OH/TN Valley regions. Active weather will continue into the first half of the weekend, as continued southwest Gulf moisture fetch persists in combination with a series of minor disturbances associated with a weak mid-level trough.
This appears to be co-located with the parent MCV spinning across N TX attm and/or the base of the upper trough itself that we have been dealing with for days.
1113 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level pattern remains largely unchanged from yesterday, with a low-amplitude trough over the Pacific Northwest. Track of this low is expected to be farther north, and so while strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday, better chances exist to the north.
These are tied to a +50kt jet streak on the eastern periphery of the much talked about upper low to our west this morning. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 70 85 70 / 50 60 30 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 85 69 84 69 / 40 60 30 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 69 84 68 84 68 / 40 60 30 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 65 84 66 / 30 60 40 60 30.
A large longwave upper level trough will remain centered just off the coast. A small low pressure center exiting the trough is passing over Washington and exiting the forecast area with just a few lingering showers over the far northern portion of the Northern Blue Mountains this morning. The trough will begin to cut off and form a closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today and overnight.
Aloft, water vapor and upper air data showed a large closed low centered over MO, with its influence felt from TX northeast into the Great Lakes, where scattered convection was occurring this afternoon. Tuesday, the upper low wobbles into eastern MO while slowly filling. The closer proximity of the low and associated large scale ascent, acting the tropical airmass, should lead to an uptick in convective coverage from today. Highs again in the low/mid 80s depending on cloud cover.
A deepening and slow- moving upper level trough is just off the OR-WA coast.
This is a result of a cold front from yesterday that is now retrograding northward as a warm front. Still, with plenty of dry air in the low-levels, damaging winds gusts, along with some large hail, will be possible.
/BCC-HUN/ Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the Ozarks. A dry slot wrapping around the low was currently moving over our CWA and knocked PWATs down below an inch and a half from near two inches per the 00Z Mon JAN sounding. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing east along the Gulf coast states that is progged to strengthen today but provide a low level southerly flow that will bring a surge of lower 70 dew points and help increase PWATs back to near two inches this afternoon. Tonight the closed low will continue tracking slowly to the northeast and slowly weakening.
given the low level moisture profile and subsidence inversion expect redevelopment of low MVFR ceilings, most likely between the 06 and 12Z window.
1031 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The main synoptic-scale dynamics in assoc/w a mid/upr level trough are poised well to the west of the region today. The aforementioned upper low will shift further to the northeast into the Ohio Valley, with its associated trough digging into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. The active weather pattern will continue late this week as a perturbation shifting from Ontario into the Mid Atlantic will finally nudge the upper trough and its associated cold front SE through the Tennessee Valley and into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
the main story is the development of the classic "La Canicula" pattern over the next few days, featuring a strengthening 500 mb ridge centered near the Texas Big Bend/Coahuila Mexico region by Tuesday and continuing thruogh Tuesday night.
Upper level low over NE OK/NW AR will continue to lift very slowly to the NE through the period. Main driver continues to be a slow moving, cut off upper low, and associated upper trough currently centered over NE Oklahoma.
330 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine -Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this week -Locally heavy rainfall possible daily but no drought-buster -Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this week No change to previous thinking that the upper low moving slowly northeast from Missouri and the tropical air mass ahead of it will provide a daily scattering of showers and tstms.
Better chances for this occurring will be across portions of northeast IA into central WI in the vicinity of some weak mid-level deformation north of a closed low extending from MO into IL. Coverage will be highest across central-southern WI, diminishing westward away from the upper low. This is where the best instability lies and is in closer proximity to the low.
Rain chances will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. Troughing will develop over the region late this week supporting higher PoPs once again. The pattern features an upper ridge along the coast with an upper trough over the central MS Valley.
Rain chances will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. Troughing will develop over the region late this week supporting higher PoPs once again. Previous discussion: The overall pattern featuring a very warm and moist air mass, typical of mid to late summer with some upper ridging over the eastern part of the forecast area. The axis of an upper level ridge will be just east of the forecast area on Tuesday. By the late afternoon and evening, we should see showers and thunderstorms diminish with NVA over the region and upper ridging building back to the west. Mid-week, an upper level ridge will build westward back over the region.
High pressure aloft has helped keep any convection from developing today. With high pressure at 500mb and the 500mb temperature at -5C, went ahead and agreed with the National Blend of Models and removed PoPs for today. The rest of the day should be quiet, especially with the high cloud cover over the western portion of the area. High pressure aloft and somewhat drier air mass should allow today to be a quiet weather day. Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent across the region as South Florida remains under the western periphery of Atlantic subtropical high pressure. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the east to the lower (or perhaps even mid) 90s for western inland areas.
A broad upper level trough will be moving very slowly across the Tennessee valley tomorrow. With our region on the southeastern edge of this trough, there will be enough forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the region again tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, with lows tonight dropping into the low 70s.
Cloud cover and showers have kept temperatures in check across portions of the Midsouth, though brief breaks in clouds have resulted in quick spikes of temperatures into the low 80s. Storms should weaken after sunset but due the presence of a weak upper level low at least showers should continue through the night. The upper low will begin to shift away from the area late tomorrow, but much of the Midsouth will remain on the east side of a broad trough.
Our flow aloft will continue to be weak and variable the next couple of days as this low continues to slowly lift northeast to rejoin the main stream.
101 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an open flow from the Gulf of Mexico into our region. The upper RIDGE is expected to amplify over the central CONUS as the mostly cutoff storm system slowly drifts northeastward into central MO this afternoon, to the MS River late tonight, and into east- central IL by Tuesday afternoon. TES The GEFS and ENS H500 mean heights continue to show the upper RIDGE dominating the central CONUS for much of the period, including our region.
Mins tonight will be in the m60s in the highest of elevations, but u60s-l70s everywhere else. Guidance consensus keeps it a tad cooler Tuesday, but still nearly 10F above normal.
A fairly weak cyclonic mid level flow regime was in place over the central Plains today around an upper low over centered over the southeast corner of Kansas. This appears to be forced by a weak vorticity lobe dropping down around the west side of the upper low combined with some deeper low level moist convergence. Through mid week, upper level ridging will be in place from southwest Texas into the central Plains to the east of a deep upper trough along the Washington/Oregon coast.
Continued warm and humid with a chance of afternoon and early Deep S-SWLY flow between the subtropical ridge centered over the SE US Coast and a slow eastward moving upper low/trough, currently over the Central Plains/Mid Ms Vally, will keep a very moist and humid airmass(PWATS 1. Highs today will be a bit cooler due to higher moisture content and cloud cover across the area. Lows generally in the lower 70s. There will be very little difference in the synoptic pattern and forcing across central NC as central NC remains sandwiched between the subtropical ridge centered over the SE US coast and a deamplifying trough drifting slowly east over the MS Valley. The high PWATS will support extensive cloudiness, including the slow and gradually lifting of the morning stratus cloud layer, which will retard and temper heating.
The threat for scattered storms will continue into early this evening as upper level low pressure continues to slowly drift northeast across the Ozarks.
1136 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone governing the local weather pattern. The combination of limited instability, dry air in the lower troposphere, and a lack of significant near-surface lift should limit incipient updraft strength and sustenance and depth of convective cells below necessary icing layers for lightning production (with the possible exception of the lower Straits of Florida, where a stronger mesoscale convergence zone was located earlier this morning). A high pressure cell centered over the western North Atlantic will dominate the local weather pattern for most of this week. Wind speeds will trend downward beginning mid week, as the high pressure cell weakens, and the associated ridge shifts southward across the Florida Peninsula.
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level trough has moved into central Missouri and will continue to slowly lift northeastward into central Illinois by Tuesday night. Byrd The majority of the deterministic and ensemble models, continue to have the upper level trough slowly weaken as it moves towards the lower Great Lakes region. In the meantime, the upper level ridge builds into the region with warmer and drier air gradually advecting in.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper low will continue to lift off to the northeast tonight. For Tuesday, could see some lingering precip along the Red River of south central and southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours with a dry and warmer afternoon. Thus will begin to transition to a much warmer and drier period.
An upper trof over the eastern portions of the southern and central Plains continues on a gradual weakening trend along with a slow northeastward movement through Tuesday. An upper ridge axis oriented just off the East Coast into the extreme eastern Gulf drifts westward in response, becoming oriented from the coast of the Carolinas across the northern Florida peninsula into the central Gulf. Model soundings show some drier air shifting westward across the northeastern Gulf and portions of the coastal counties on Tuesday, likely the result of subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge.
The warm front continues to lift back northward across South Dakota late this afternoon. Therefore, the activity may become elevated during the mid to late evening, north of the surface warm front. A supply of cooler (relatively) and drier air will filter in later Fri and could well persist through the weekend.
Large scale troughing will maintain a fairly benign showery pattern for much of the coming week, with temperatures running near or slightly below seasonal normals.
On Tuesday, The upper ridge will remain in place across the region, as an upper trough along the West Coast bring southwest flow to the western U.
Focus for the remainder of the week will be on expectation of thunderstorms with the upper trof along the west coast. An upper ridge builds into the area today with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies. The trough will combine with several ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms. Afternoon dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s.
101 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 All the models remain in good agreement with taking an upper level low currently over the southern plains northward today, wobbling it across Ill Tue-Thu. FRI: the GFS and EC remain in good agreement with taking a trough from the west coast east/northeast, pushing it into and across the entrenched upper level ridge that has been plaguing the region for the past many days. This would keep the ridge off to the west. The EC is suggestive that the ridge could then hang around for awhile. The GFS could drive a trough across it by mid week.
Rain and clouds have kept temperatures in the low to mid 70s across most of the area. /issued 641 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ The active pattern continues across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a pesky upper level low spins over Arkansas. This low will slowly move northward over the next day or two. I expect those to run on the higher side and perhaps over 2 inches at some point over the next couple of days.
This evening will be largely dry and warm under the influence of the stalled upper ridging. Tuesday will feel similar to today as upper ridging strengthens and temperatures rise into the 90s with dewpoints in the 50s to mid 60s. Will maintain the slight chance pop for now, though the strengthening ridging and weak deep layer shear make it unlikely for rain to occur.
This could be case again tomorrow, especially in eastern KS, as a broad and weak upper level low lingers across the region. Our air mass remains warm and muggy as an upper ridge builds from the Four Corners region into the midwest. The ridge is expected to expand over eastern KS into the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper low shifts further northeast into the Ohio River Valley.
The main synoptic-scale dynamics in assoc/w a mid/upr level trough are poised well to the west of the region today. The aforementioned upper low will shift further to the northeast into the Ohio Valley, with its associated trough digging into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. The active weather pattern will continue late this week as a perturbation shifting from Ontario into the Mid Atlantic will finally nudge the upper trough and its associated cold front SE through the Tennessee Valley and into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
214 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 A broad upper level trough currently situated across central Missouri continues to slowly circulate and move to the northeast. Currently expecting little to no shear in the low to mid levels with 0-6km bulk shear vectors around 10-215kts along with marginal ML CAPE that maxes out at around 1000 J/kg. By 09Z, model guidance is suggesting very strong lift in the low to mid levels with PWATS nearly 2 inches. Models continue to suggest a weak upper low lingering over northern Indiana and northern Illinois.
An upper lvl ridge will build over West Texas Tue bringing scorching temperatures to the area. The upper lvl ridge will enforce a strong LLTR overhead, which will support multiple days of triple digit heat. The ridge will strength Thu/Fri making those the hottest days of the year so far. An upper lvl trough will dive into NorCal Thu tilting the ridge in a negative orientation but the ridge will remain over the Southern Plains until a secondary trough will likely flatten the ridge out by Sat.
Otherwise, upper ridge begins building into the area from Mexico the next couple days which should allow for decreasing precip chances and higher temps heading into midweek.
Rain chances will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. Troughing will develop over the region late this week supporting higher PoPs once again. Previous discussion: The overall pattern featuring a very warm and moist air mass, typical of mid to late summer with some upper ridging over the eastern part of the forecast area.
301 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure will remain anchored off the SE coast of the US through the period. this will allow the weather pattern to be primarily controlled by a westward stretching ridge extending from the Bermuda High over the Atlantic Ocean.
1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper-level low that has been in place across the southern and central plains for the past few days will slowly start to move eastward today as a ridge starts to build in over the southern Rockies and High Plains.
A convective complex is expected to develop along the ridge axis to the west along Dakotas/MN border before traversing into the Arrowhead region. Upper ridging with associated anticyclonic flow will continue over Upper Michigan through this week.
High pressure remains to our north keeping southeasterly flow across the Sunshine State today.
Much of the same is in store for tomorrow temperature-wise with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s and highs in the low 90s.
326 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure will remain south of the region tonight. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday.
Latest RAP analysis is indicating 700mb temps of 12-16C across southern CO, which is on the higher side. This will include storms developing and weakening over and near the higher terrain, Raton Mesa, and along and north of the Palmer Divide where the previously mentioned surface boundary is now located.
307 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The broad and slow moving mid/upper trough continues to move slowly north and east across Missouri. For tonight, most areas should remain dry but it'll be hard to rule out a rogue updraft or two, especially east of the Kansas Turnpike and some of this activity could linger into the morning hours on Tue before the mid level thermal ridge starts to expand eastward across the area. With dewpoint temperatures rising into the low 70s, we'll see some heat indices above the century mark for a few areas on Wed and more widespread on Thu. The mid/upper ridge is progged to quickly build back into the area through early in the week with above normal temperatures and dry weather persisting across the area.
232 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary low pressure over western SD, with northward moving warm front generally across far northern SD right now. Cool front extends west-southwest from the low through east central WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge just to the east of the region, with southwesterly flow aloft from the Great Basin into the Northern Plains. A very warm and occasionally active pattern looks in store for much of the week as the area stays on the west side of a fairly persistent ridge centered to the east of the region.
With South-Central Texas remaining under a west-northwesterly flow aloft behind the upper level low that is now positioning around Missouri, we will need to keep an eye on any convection that may develop across portions of West/North Texas. Otherwise, a warm and very humid night is expected where dew points hold in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level ridging will continue to expand across the region from Mexico during Tuesday.
1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Summary: Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening following the lifting of a warm front across the area. A cold front has been slowing working its way across the CWA this morning. The exception will be locations adjacent to Lake Superior, where temps will be 5- 10 degrees cooler. Model guidance places the highest values of MLCAPE around 2000-2800 J/kg. While tornadoes are unlikely, there is the possibility of a weak tornado or two spinning up given the low level shear profile.
The much talked about southern plains upper low will begin to shift northeast into Illinois tonight and into Tuesday. Near-surface moisture will not be scoured out by any front or air mass change, so once convection dies off and the mid and high clouds begin to thin out with the drier air moving in, we should see low clouds and maybe some patchy fog develop in the low elevation areas tonight. As a result it should be a more typical summertime convective pattern with storms forming over the mountains by late morning and scattered convection developing in the lower elevations later in the day. Discussion: A meandering upper level low will visit the river valleys of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Rivers through the workweek.
An upper level low continues to very slowly make its way north out of eastern OK. A building ridge across the eastern Rockies is stifling its northward progression. Guidance is still pointing at midlevel flow tilting more SW to NE shoving much warmer air into the region. High temperatures climb into the low 90s toward the end of the week.
131 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. This Afternoon: Aloft, ridging will persist over the Southeast while a broad low positioned over the Central United States gradually shifts north and starts to weaken. At the sfc, the area will remain positioned along the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure, favoring a warm and moist southerly flow into the region. The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure through the period. Aloft, ridging will prevail over the Southeast.
The along with the upper level closed low to the west is leading to deep southerly flow and therefore PWATs in the 1. Highs for Tuesday will top out in the low to mid 80s for most. The lows will bottom out into the mid to upper 60s for most locations. The large scale pattern in the extended will feature a large ridge of high pressure situated over the southeastern CONUS at the surface, with ridging aloft extending westward into the Great Plains. The western third of the country should have a strong trough of low pressure aloft moving onshore to begin the period. As we go out in time, the western trough will deepen and push onshore, while the eastern ridging tries to hold its own.
The main forcing mechanism will be a warm front, which extends east of an area of low pressure across west central South Dakota, and is currently tracking northward across central and northeastern South Dakota. By about 00z (when CAMs suggest convection is most likely to first get started), the warm front should be positioned roughly from Stanley to McPherson Counties. Thus, the tornado across our CWA may be greatest (though still small) if relatively discrete storms can develop on the warm front prior to 00z, particularly if LCL heights can become lowered a bit by any prior convection.