Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Broad subsidence associated with the high along with departing cloud cover will allow for a cold start to the day with temperatures in the single digits and low teens across the region. Cold, calm, and mostly clear conditions will continue for the rest of the day as the high builds to the south.
Adding to the uncertainty is temperatures at KPVW and KCDS that will hover near freezing likely producing periods of -FZRA or -FZDZ, especially at KPVW. KLBB looks to remain at or just above freezing so have held off mentioning in the TAF or issuing an Airport Weather Warning. /issued 448 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ Wow, that was some cold front at 2:01 AM CST! We saw a 9. As temperatures have already fallen below freezing for the southwestern TX Panhandle (and continue to fall area-wide), the likelihood of freezing rain has increased through noon for the southwestern TX Panhandle and the adjacent areas of the South Plains. A blocking high over Alaska has been forcing air further north into the Arctic, which will be poised to head south over the weekend.
Relatively dry conditions under weak high pressure will bring continued slightly above normal temperatures through at least the weekend.
543 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Breezy and colder conditions will prevail across central Illinois today with high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s far north around Galesburg. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a strong cold front along the Ohio River. Afternoon highs will remain in the lower to middle 30s across much of the area, with upper 30s to around 40 degree readings noted south of I-70.
A ridge of high pressure will move into the region tonight, which will bring an end to any lingering lake effect flurries this evening. High pressure will shift east on Friday, but dry conditions will prevail.
541 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Light rain and freezing rain will continue until 15-18Z for most of the terminals. The freezing rain may transition to snow over WWR but very little is expected to fall. Brief IFR cigs will be followed by MVFR cigs until the cold front brings drier air in after 18Z. /issued 354 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ The strong cold front is more or less on schedule, now extending from near McAlester to Ardmore to south of Wichita Falls, Texas. It will continue its southward advance today, ushering in much cooler/colder weather to Oklahoma and north Texas. Precipitation will continue behind the front, extending this morning into northwest Oklahoma, where temperatures are below freezing. Some light accumulations of ice are possible in the northwest, though roads (except bridges/overpasses) should be warm enough to remain ice-free.
432 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Showers are expected areawide this morning with a cold front before transitioning to snow this afternoon. Regional radars show much better coverage of light to moderate showers over the area this morning in advance of the cold front.
455 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 High pressure moving off to the southeast today with downslope flow expected to develop during the afternoon.
259 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 09z surface analysis had high over eastern SD/NE with weak return flow across western portions of the CWA ahead of weak trough from central MT into eastern WY. Today/tonight, upper level ridge builds into the northern plains.
Some light precipitation, most likely in the form of patchy freezing drizzle, was occurring over the far southwest part of the area around Elkhart. In spite of the increased insolation, temperatures will considerably cooler with highs around 40 or in the lower 40s. Good radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 20s.
Skies are expected to remain mostly sunny today, with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s, which is about 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Thankfully, high pressure will begin to slide east of the area Thursday evening, allowing southerly low level flow to moderate temperatures on Friday. Temperatures will climb back into the 40s across western Iowa, and potentially reach the low 50s across parts of northeast Nebraska.
321 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Breezy and colder conditions will prevail across central Illinois today with high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s far north around Galesburg. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a strong cold front along the Ohio River. Afternoon highs will remain in the lower to middle 30s across much of the area, with upper 30s to around 40 degree readings noted south of I-70.
521 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Cold front has just passed southeast of the forecast area early this morning with light to moderate rain continuing across southeast MO and southwest IL, south of a line from VIH to CPS to SLO. Accumulation is not expected as any wintry precipitation will be light and short lived, and with road/ground/surface temperatures well above freezing will melt on contact. Despite the afternoon solar insolation the high temperatures will be unseasonably cold due to strong low level cold air advection, and about 20 degrees below normal for early November.
423 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 09z surface analysis had high over eastern SD/NE with weak return flow across western portions of the CWA ahead of weak trough from central MT into eastern WY. Today/tonight, upper level ridge builds into the northern plains.
Some of the high-res models are wanting to paint some isolated showers over the eastern and far southern San Juans this morning and early afternoon as a disturbance continues tracking across New Mexico, but this outcome seems very unlikely. Given the dry air overall and at the low levels, showers are going to have a really tough time forming. Model guidance has been much cooler than what we've experienced, so trended warmer. Friday will be more of the same with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions under a light north-northwest flow as high pressure continues to amplify out west and inch a bit further eastward towards our CWA. Ridge of high pressure remains in control this weekend with mostly sunny skies and mild, above normal temperatures.
420 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Cold front has just passed southeast of the forecast area early this morning with light to moderate rain continuing across southeast MO and southwest IL, south of a line from VIH to CPS to SLO. Accumulation is not expected as any wintry precipitation will be light and short lived, and with road/ground/surface temperatures well above freezing will melt on contact. Despite the afternoon solar insolation the high temperatures will be unseasonably cold due to strong low level cold air advection, and about 20 degrees below normal for early November.
The remainder of today will be partly cloudy as high pressure strengthens over the region.
Very quiet weather continues as the ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the southwest U.
A fair degree of directional shear is also observed in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere at 175 M2/S2, and these values would support mesocyclone development in more robust convection.
443 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 For today, the surface pressure gradient associated with southward building high pressure will continue to relax, resulting in slowly diminishing winds. The upper level low pressure system currently moving across New Mexico will maintain its eastward movement across the region today in a weakened state. As it approaches and tracks across the area, it could produce a wintry mix of light freezing rain and light snow. The atmospheric column may become sufficiently below freezing such that some light snow may encompass parts of the OK Panhandle and northwest TX Panhandle, with the potential for a wintry mix across most of the remainder of the fcst area as a bit of a warm layer still exists aloft.
412 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 High pressure will linger over NC early today.
Broad anticyclonic flow around the offshore upper ridge has brought some scattered high clouds into the region. A gradual eastward shift of this ridge is likely with heights being roughly 1 to 1. Radiational inversions will form each night with the the typical thermal belts remaining about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the Valley. While temperatures remain warm into the weekend, heights do begin to lower a bit in response to a weak trough moving through the Central Great Basin.
It should not be a surprise that an upper level ridge will continue to dominate our weather for the next 7 days. Only isolated ridge level gusts to 21 mph are expected for the next couple of nights and mornings.
Early this morning a mid-level wave was moving southeast across the northern and central Plains within the broad trough centered over James Bay. This feature will continue to move across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region by afternoon as the trough progresses east. High pressure of arctic origin will will continue to build southward into northeast Kansas this morning allowing the pressure gradient to weaken and decrease the gusty north winds.
The snow covered areas may have a little affect on the highs today as it melts with sunshine and warmer temperatures out west. Highs in the upper 20s to the upper 30s today will warm into the 40s to the lower 50s on Friday with steady west to southwest breezes.
/Issued 443 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ For today, the surface pressure gradient associated with southward building high pressure will continue to relax, resulting in slowly diminishing winds. The upper level low pressure system currently moving across New Mexico will maintain its eastward movement across the region today in a weakened state. As it approaches and tracks across the area, it could produce a wintry mix of light freezing rain and light snow. The atmospheric column may become sufficiently below freezing such that some light snow may encompass parts of the OK Panhandle and northwest TX Panhandle, with the potential for a wintry mix across most of the remainder of the fcst area as a bit of a warm layer still exists aloft.
448 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Wow, that was some cold front at 2:01 AM CST! We saw a 9. As temperatures have already fallen below freezing for the southwestern TX Panhandle (and continue to fall area-wide), the likelihood of freezing rain has increased through noon for the southwestern TX Panhandle and the adjacent areas of the South Plains. A blocking high over Alaska has been forcing air further north into the Arctic, which will be poised to head south over the weekend.
529 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 High pressure building in from the Dakotas providing a mostly clear and cold night across the area early this morning. High pressure will slide into the area today and settle overhead tonight. Lows set to tank tonight with the high overhead and mostly clear skies through at least midnight. In case you were wondering, these temperatures are some 20-25 degrees below our norms for early November! Warm air advection (relatively warmer) kicks in Friday/Friday night with increasing cloud cover as the high slides east and low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains.
249 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Relatively dry conditions under weak high pressure will bring continued slightly above normal temperatures through at least the weekend.
A few ASOS stations have been reporting freezing drizzle this morning; however, radar data, along with looking out the window, indicate very light precipitation is more widespread. Therefore, it is likely several areas will continue to experience off and on freezing drizzle east of the Sangre de Cristos for the through around 7 or 8 AM MST. The cloud layer is not very deep, so expect clouds and fog, along with freezing drizzle, to start dissipating after the sun rises and begins to heat the surface. Despite the clearing skies this afternoon, highs are expected to be cooler than average, with temperatures only reaching the low to mid 40s across the plains and upper 40s to near 50 in the high valleys.
940 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 High pressure continues to ridge over Florida producing mostly sunny skies and rain-free conditions across most of the region, except along the Nature Coast where low clouds continue to linger.
The dominant ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will continue to maintain our dry trend. This ridge will slowly build eastward towards the West Coast by the weekend bringing a slight warming trend, and weak offshore flow to the area by late in the weekend. This will bring warmer temperatures to the coast, along with clearing out coastal stratus. This will also result in additional drying across the higher terrain, although winds are forecast to generally remain light. SFO Bridge Approach.
with the cold front filtering across SE TX/C LA this afternoon. By Friday, the upper air pattern will be dominated with a large scale long wave trough across the Central and Eastern U.
The cold front that moved through this morning is currently along the Rio Grande with temperatures remain steady or slowly falling behind the boundary. Weak upper ridging builds in this weekend allowing for warming temperatures and dry conditions.
This adjustment is still 3-5 degrees warmer than the MET/MAV/MEX guidance, but cooler than all of the raw model solutions. It is certainly possible that some low-lying locations drop into the low teens--a few sites in the Siouxland fell below zero with the passage of the ridge last night. There will be little in the way of sensible weather given the building upstream upper level ridge other than possibly some mid-level clouds attendant with a weak H850 trough in the afternoon.
1120 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Cold front has just passed southeast of the forecast area early this morning with light to moderate rain continuing across southeast MO and southwest IL, south of a line from VIH to CPS to SLO. Accumulation is not expected as any wintry precipitation will be light and short lived, and with road/ground/surface temperatures well above freezing will melt on contact. Despite the afternoon solar insolation the high temperatures will be unseasonably cold due to strong low level cold air advection, and about 20 degrees below normal for early November.
1132 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 High pressure building in from the Dakotas providing a mostly clear and cold night across the area early this morning. High pressure will slide into the area today and settle overhead tonight. Lows set to tank tonight with the high overhead and mostly clear skies through at least midnight. In case you were wondering, these temperatures are some 20-25 degrees below our norms for early November! Warm air advection (relatively warmer) kicks in Friday/Friday night with increasing cloud cover as the high slides east and low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains.
A strong ridge offshore is keeping the Pacific northwest under dry northwesterly flow aloft. At low levels, a weak thermal trough remains in place along the coast. The ridge will move slowly east with time, with the axis moving onshore tonight. While winds will be light, RH recoveries over the southwest Oregon ridges will remain moderate at best.
151 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 It has been another cold and damp day across the forecast area as cold advection persists while weak mid level ascent from the remnants of a short wave upper trough over New Mexico moves very slowly to the east and southeast.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: High pressure moving off to the southeast today with downslope flow expected to develop during the afternoon.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ With limited instability from cold frontal cold air wedging, no thunder has been observed with the area of rain that is slowly movg across cwa. Have tapered off pops this eve from north to south except keeping in drizzle as well with the low clouds.
Skies are starting to clear from the northwest to southeast as a drier air mass moves into the area with the high. Lows tonight will be able to drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s, some middle teens are not out of the question across parts of central Missouri.
147 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 High pressure continues to ridge over Florida producing mostly sunny skies and rain-free conditions across most of the region today.
Much cooler temperatures are on their way as the front that is pushing this moisture along moves through our area. The main change was to adjust the high temperatures for today to reflect those upper 50s over our southern counties.
Cold front crossing the region is east of the ridges and rain will continue to transition to snow with CAA behind the front the remainder of the afternoon. Full transition to all snow expected by early evening as lingering snow showers south and west of PGH diminish but LES activity picks up across the north and upslope keeps activity going in the ridges. 1-2 inches or less is expected in the higher elevations of the ridges, and generally around 0. Much colder air is expected Friday behind the cold front, with afternoon highs only rebounding into the 30s (20s in higher elevations). Dry conditions will continue with building high pressure through this weekend.
/issued 448 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ Wow, that was some cold front at 2:01 AM CST! We saw a 9. As temperatures have already fallen below freezing for the southwestern TX Panhandle (and continue to fall area-wide), the likelihood of freezing rain has increased through noon for the southwestern TX Panhandle and the adjacent areas of the South Plains. A blocking high over Alaska has been forcing air further north into the Arctic, which will be poised to head south over the weekend.
205 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Tonight will be quiet and much warmer than last night as cloud cover moves in and southwesterly winds and warm air advection kick in.
Ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature for at least the next few days. Some cirrus topping the ridge will move across the area today and tonight.
The inversion is expected to become stronger Friday as warmer air aloft accompanies a building high pressure ridge.
/Tonight through Thursday/ High pressure will be in control of the weather across Iowa for the next few days. Tonight through Friday as the high shifts off to the southeast, return flow will make it's way back into the state. The warm advection will continue on Friday and highs will be warmer but cloud cover resulting from warm advection processes will temper highs somewhat.
1018 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Areas of fog & freezing drizzle are ongoing across a large part of the CWA early this morning. A Freezing Fog Advisory will remain in effect until 6 AM this morning for current hazards including low visibilities & slick roads. Otherwise, decreasing clouds today w/ temperatures trending warmer for much of the area.
255 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Updated at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 As we head into the evening, precip will continue to push southeast and diminish as the cold front exits the region. Temps behind the front have already dropped from the low 50s this morning into the upper 30s across most of the region, with mid 40s near the TN border.
1037 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 09z surface analysis had high over eastern SD/NE with weak return flow across western portions of the CWA ahead of weak trough from central MT into eastern WY. Today/tonight, upper level ridge builds into the northern plains.
/issued 940 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019/ High pressure continues to ridge over Florida producing mostly sunny skies and rain-free conditions across most of the region, except along the Nature Coast where low clouds continue to linger.
Areas of dense fog continue to affect portions of the district, but the North Bay Valleys and a few spots in the East Bay are seeing the lowest visibilities. The dominant ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will continue to hold, and slowly build eastward towards the West Coast by the weekend bringing a bit of a warming trend, and weak offshore flow to the area by late in the weekend. This will help to bring warmer temperatures to the coast, along with clearing out coastal stratus. This will also result in additional drying across the higher terrain, although winds are forecast to generally remain light. SFO Bridge Approach.
Much drier and colder air is in store for the next couple of days thanks to the upper trough over the eastern U.
Dry and mild conditions will continue into the weekend under the influence of high pressure. High pressure remains centered off the California coast this morning, keeping a dry and stable northwest flow over Utah and southwest Wyoming.
Hathaway A cold front and associated showers and possible thunderstorms will move across SE TX today (winds shift to the NW and N and possibly become gusty 15-17Z CLL area, 18-20Z IAH area and 22-00Z GLS area).
Temperatures aloft continue to warm for Friday, leading to daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, peaking in the mid 50s for the lower elevations and the mid 40s higher aloft.
Upper level ridging will persist over the Rockies or near the West Coast through mid November, with dry northwesterly flow at upper levels across the plains.
Upper level ridging offshore will shift inland Friday then weaken Friday night.
A strong cold front is approaching Tupelo and should move out of the Midsouth in the next hour or so. Temperatures tonight will be 20-25 degrees cooler than this morning, ranging from the middle 20s to the lower 30s.
Upper ridging will allow temperatures to increase through the rest of the week, and keeping conditions relatively mild across most of southeastern Montana.
Updated at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 As we head into the evening, precip will continue to push southeast and diminish as the cold front exits the region. Temps behind the front have already dropped from the low 50s this morning into the upper 30s across most of the region, with mid 40s near the TN border.
This is a result of a high pressure system off the coast of northern California and an area of low pressure off the Baja coast causing a Rex Block pattern.
Accumulation will be light with measurable amounts along and north of Interstate 80 and in the ridges. Changes for the eve update were primarily cosmetic as cold front has completed passage and widespread precip. When the mid level trough axis passes later tonight, cold flow off the Lakes will deepen and snow showers will pick up, mainly along and north of I 80. No real change was made to the accumulation of a couple inches for those areas and the ridges. Dry conditions will continue with building high pressure through this weekend.
The low level moisture and low clouds will likely linger with upslope flow.
The dominant ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will continue to maintain our dry trend. This ridge will slowly build eastward towards the West Coast by the weekend bringing a slight warming trend, and weak offshore flow to the area by late in the weekend. This will bring warmer temperatures to the coast, along with clearing out coastal stratus. This will also result in additional drying across the higher terrain, although winds are forecast to generally remain light. Exact timing of the low clouds will be the challenge and will amend the TAFs as necessary. SFO Bridge Approach.
937 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Mostly clear skies were noted over the Keys with temperatures in the lower 80s, and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Aloft, the Keys were under northwest anticyclonic flow with 500 mb heights steady near 591 Dm, reflective of the broad upper ridge across the southern Gulf of Mexico. and cold sprawling high pressure building from the upper Midwest. As the last remnants from the western extension of the ridge in the western Atlantic dissipate as heights begin to fall in response to the deep upper trough carving out across the eastern U.
High temperatures will be a little warmer than today.
441 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Updated Aviation Discussion An upper level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, allowing for a mild but windy day over the region.
/issued 147 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019/ High pressure continues to ridge over Florida producing mostly sunny skies and rain-free conditions across most of the region today.
342 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Upper level ridging will persist over the Rockies or near the West Coast through mid November, with dry northwesterly flow at upper levels across the plains.