Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level trough along the coast continues to bring onshore flow with unseasonably cool temperatures for this Independence Day. As a result temperatures at 2 pm were warmer today than yesterday, about 5-7 degrees higher overall and 9-12 degrees warmer in Delta influenced areas. Ensembles linger the main trough off the PacNW coast the next several days continuing below-average temperatures across interior NorCal into mid-week.
305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Convective coverage is fairly sparse this afternoon, mainly over the high mountains, foothills and Cheyenne Ridge.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ After a lucky few saw some decent rainfall yesterday mainly northwest of the Metroplex, mid level ridging has resumed control of North Texas weather and a period of hot and dry conditions will prevail through the week. Satellite imagery shows cloud free skies across most of the region with temperatures already in the lower 90s.
Periods of light rain and showers will carry through late Tuesday with an area of low pressure stalled offshore. Inland temperatures will remain well below average through the first half of the week under entrenched longwave troughing. Light precipitation chances will linger into late this week before high pressure finally builds in. A warm front has brought unusual but beneficial rainfall amounts for July to Northwest California. More beneficial rainfall will continue this afternoon and evening as the warm front continue advecting ashore.
738 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 High pressure will extend across the region this week before a front shifts through the area late weekend. Aloft, ridging will prevail. At the surface, weak troughing will linger in the vicinity as Atlantic high pressure prevails offshore.
1030 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 High pressure will extend across the region this week before a front shifts through the area late weekend. Aloft, ridging will prevail. At the surface, weak troughing will linger in the vicinity as Atlantic high pressure prevails offshore.
This added moisture is also helping keep temperatures elevated in the 60s and 70s, several degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. KOAK's evening sounding shows a moist profile throughout the lower- and mid- levels, with total PW at 1. Only one station along the Sonoma coast is showing a bucket tip in the last hour, but there is the possibility for some very light rain or drizzle overnight into Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area. For tomorrow (and next few days), we still will be influenced by the upper level trough centered just off the coast, meaning temperatures will be remaining below normal.
(Today and tonight) A broad upper level high, currently centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley, will expand a bit further west today, continuing to remain the dominant player in our weather. Strong insolation, slight strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge, and increasing thicknesses as the upper ridge further expands into our area will allow temperatures to tick upwards with areas generally north of a San Angelo to San Saba line seeing highs in the 100-103 range. It looks as though any chances of precipitation will stay to the west of our area with the monsoonal moisture over the higher terrain - though a few isolated showers in far western Crockett County cannot be totally ruled out.
The overall conditions will be very similar to yesterday as high pressure at 500 mb remains centered over the southern Mississippi Valley.
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 High pressure will extend across the region this week before a front shifts through the area late weekend. Aloft, ridging will prevail. At the surface, weak troughing will linger in the vicinity as Atlantic high pressure prevails offshore.
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across the Florida Peninsula and gulf coast states. Meanwhile, a subtle surface through lower level trough and elevated deep layered moisture is located over the western Bahamas and is advancing westward. Forecast - The surface through lower level Atlantic ridge will remain across Florida and the South through much of the week, keeping winds mostly gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast. The previously mentioned subtle trough will begin spreading across the Keys later today. Long range Doppler radar and satellite imagery indicates higher shower and thunderstorm coverage further east, coincident with the subtle trough and increased deep layered moisture (PW 2+ inches).
The upper ridge over the Central Plains and the broad upper trough over the northeast U. Dry and less humid conditions return this weekend as high pressure builds in across the region. Increasing clouds are expected by erly Tue as wind veers to the SW with a warm front.
A trof could push through northern Nevada mid- week bringing increase cloud cover. A trof could push through northern Nevada mid-week bringing increase cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday Low pressure off the BC/Pacific Northwest coast will remain quasi- stationary through tomorrow evening.
Main area of low pressure is holding over the Northern Plains. Stronger/more organized convection continues to fire along this warm front well south of our CWA. Widespread rain showers continue to fall across much of our area attm driven by a strong short wave and surface response riding north of the warm front along the rather fast upper level flow. with some clearing taking place this afternoon as high pressure builds into the Western Great Lakes. High temps this afternoon will range form the lower 70s across Eastern Upper michigan to the mid 80s near Saginaw Bay.
Showers and storms should remain offshore, as Atlantic high pressure over stretching across the area keeps east to southeasterly flow in place through the period.
Tranquil conditions will occur courtesy of high pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): For the short term period, high pressure will continue to remain parked overhead.
1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) This is the start of a time frame with a large and expansive upper level high dominating our weather pattern. This high will be centered over Arkansas and Tennessee tonight and Tuesday, with our area on its western flank. With strong insolation and slight strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, expecting highs on Tuesday to be 97-102 degrees across our area.
(Today) Broad high pressure aloft over the south central CONUS will bring another day much like yesterday, lots of sun and triple digit temps in several locations. (Tonight through Monday) Models indicate continued expansion of the low level thermal ridge will occur over the next couple days, as mid level heights slowly rise with H5 ridge slowly expanding west overhead.
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 High pressure will continue to move off of the mid Atlantic coast today. Considerable mid to high cloudiness covers central PA downstream of mature MCS tracking from the Lower GLAKS into the Ohio Valley this morning. central GLAKS and Fair and seasonable weather prevailing early this morning over central PA with high pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast. Hires guidance continues to suggest potential for another round of convection later tonight associated with a slow- moving cold front sagging south through the state.
Today was notably warmer than yesterday, with dewpoints running about the same as this hour last evening. That being said, July 4th festivities will add a lot of particulates into the lowest parts of the atmosphere which could aid in the development of some patchy fog and/or low clouds. KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 76 94 76 95 / 30 10 40 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 74 93 76 95 / 20 10 50 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 75 93 75 94 / 20 10 50 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 71 88 70 90 / 30 30 60 40 70.
Overall, QPF is on the lower side with any storms that pop up in that area, as moisture is lacking.
This will result in the better low level moisture remaining across southeast KS where the highest heat indices are anticipated and an excessive heat warning will be issued for multiple consecutive days of 105+ heat indices. maintained some low pops across portions of central Kansas to account for some activity drifting into the area although higher probabilities will likely remain north of our forecast area where the low-level moisture transport and LLJ will be more favorable for nocturnal storms. Better chances may arrive Wed night but the highest probabilities are expected to remain across our central KS counties with pops dropping off as we move toward the highway 54 corridor.
Low pressure sits over the WY/NE border today with a warm front draped near the SD/NE border. Weak low pressure tracks west to east through ND and south central SD late tonight. There is some capping given the warm air aloft under the upper ridge, but the NAM has that breaking this afternoon, especially in the north.
The main weather feature continue to be an upper level ridge which covers much of the southeast U. The ridge will continue to hold over the region for the next few days.
This is due to slight amplification of the upper ridge changing the potential track of the storms to the northeast. No major shift in the pattern is expected late in the week and into the weekend although the amplification of the ridge will continue.
In the wake of these thunderstorms, Wednesday has trended cooler for most of Nebraska, but the front looks to stall before pushing into northern Kansas.
313 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Overview: A relatively stagnant synoptic pattern, characterized by broad/expansive ridging aloft over the central and southeastern CONUS, will prevail in this period. Given that the Tri-State area remains situated on the WNW-NW periphery of an expansive upper level ridge. Expecting slightly cooler temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s during the initial portions of the period due to a weak cold frontal passage.
741 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 High pressure will continue to move off of the mid Atlantic coast today. Hires guidance continues to suggest potential for another round of convection later tonight associated with a slow- moving cold front sagging south through the state. Juxtaposition of periphery of mid/upper level ridge with above normal PWs for early July means that southern portions of central PA will remain favorable for additional rounds of storms through late Wednesday, and some may again contain gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
621 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 High pressure will continue to move off of the mid Atlantic coast today. Hires guidance continues to suggest potential for another round of convection later tonight associated with a slow- moving cold front sagging south through the state. Juxtaposition of periphery of mid/upper level ridge with above normal PWs for early July means that southern portions of central PA will remain favorable for additional rounds of storms through late Wednesday, and some may again contain gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
1052 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Mean layer ridging persists across the Deep South, supporting high pressure across the western North Atlantic and the southeastern United States. Temperatures are climbing through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Rainfall totals were the highest in Key West as well with Key West International Airport measuring 4.
Main area of low pressure is holding over the Northern Plains. Stronger/more organized convection continues to fire along this warm front well south of our CWA. Widespread rain showers continue to fall across much of our area attm driven by a strong short wave and surface response riding north of the warm front along the rather fast upper level flow. with some clearing taking place this afternoon as high pressure builds into the Western Great Lakes. High temps this afternoon will range form the lower 70s across Eastern Upper michigan to the mid 80s near Saginaw Bay. High pressure will continue to build over northern Michigan from the north Wednesday, continuing precipitation free weather and normal temperatures.
Heat indices are warmer by a couple of degrees. Wednesday's temps will still be hot, but a significant 10 degrees cooler or so as that front sags south. Another ridge rider may work off the higher terrain out west and find its way to the Missouri River and beyond.
5 and 2 inches, which is above the 90 percentile of observed values at MPX on the low end and near the maximum for the day on the high end. These temperatures combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s will create heat index values in the 90s to low 100s. The highest heat index values will be in the I-90 corridor where heat index values up to around 103 will be possible. The upper ridge continues to remain over us for the remainder of the week thanks to the upper high stalled over the south central CONUS.
Mostly cloudy conditions throughout the day today with highs varying from the upper 70s along our western and southern counties with cooler temperatures closer to the Lake.
304 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Upper low is nearly stationary off the Pac NW coast.
Breezy southwest winds along with slightly below normal temperatures will continue each afternoon through Wednesday as a trough of low pressure remains in place along the west coast. This trough will lift out during the second part of the week and be replaced with a ridge over the four corners region. Today and Wednesday A trough of low pressure in place along the west coast will result in another breezy day across the region today and keep temperatures a few degrees below seasonal norms. The trough will begin to lift north by Wednesday as high pressure begins to build across the four corners region.
/issued 307 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will maintain rain-free conditions with above-normal temperatures for the BRO CWFA for the period. Although the mid-level ridge will dominate over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today, it may cede control to a weak inverted mid-level trough that will approach from the east tonight and Wednesday.
622 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 High pressure will continue to move off of the mid Atlantic coast today. Hires guidance continues to suggest potential for another round of convection later tonight associated with a slow- moving cold front sagging south through the state. Juxtaposition of periphery of mid/upper level ridge with above normal PWs for early July means that southern portions of central PA will remain favorable for additional rounds of storms through late Wednesday, and some may again contain gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
An overall decrease in storm coverage is expected Wednesday with warmer temperatures.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle 60s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s to middle 70s elsewhere. High temperatures remain in the middle 90s to around 105 degrees with low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. the forecast area remains in monsoonal flow, in between upper level high pressure over the southern states and low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
A broad area of low pressure will remain off the Pacific Northwest coast, while high pressure strengthens through the central Plains.
During the early portion of the period we will reside under the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft, near the north or northeast edge of upper level ridging associated with high pressure centered over the Deep South. Late in the period the upper high is expected to creep westward as troughing amplifies along the East Coast. The resulting broader area of west to northwest flow developing over the Ohio Valley and southeast CONUS will allow a cold front to drop south.
619 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Heat will build today and Wednesday as a strong upper level ridge becomes centered over our area while sprawling across all the southern states.
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (Today) Broad high pressure aloft over the south central CONUS will bring another day much like yesterday, lots of sun and triple digit temps in several locations.
533 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Upper low is nearly stationary off the Pac NW coast.
The upper ridge over the Central Plains and the broad upper trough over the northeast U. Dry and less humid conditions return this weekend as high pressure builds in across the region.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies cover the region early this morning as the upper trough remains off the coast.
A pattern shift also begins late Wednesday night as the area of high pressure centered over the Gulf states begins to expand westward.
Mid to upper level ridging will shift further into the region today leading to another hot day. As we head into Wednesday, the ridge axis begins to drift off to the northeast.
The large scale weather pattern continues to feature a broad upper level ridge centered over the central US with upper level troughing along the west coast. Model guidance remains consistent in the big picture trend of expanding the ridge west through the rest of the work week, warming temperatures above seasonal averages by Wed and beyond, while additional disturbances ejecting out of the W Coast trough move around the periphery of the ridge across the Northern Rockies and MT, maintaining a daily chance for thunderstorms each afternoon/evening.
610 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 An upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region today before beginning to weaken/retrograde on Wednesday.
WV imagery indicates broad ridging aloft situated across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado border.
For our folks in the higher terrain of the Ouachitas and Ozarks, and most of the Wrn and N/Wrn portions of the state, there may be a silver lining, this being increasing S/Wrly winds into the afternoon.
404 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Overview: A relatively stagnant synoptic pattern, characterized by broad/expansive ridging aloft over the central and southeastern CONUS, will prevail in this period. Given that the Tri-State area remains situated on the WNW-NW periphery of an expansive upper level ridge. Expecting slightly cooler temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s during the initial portions of the period due to a weak cold frontal passage.
600 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (Today and tonight) A broad upper level high, currently centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley, will expand a bit further west today, continuing to remain the dominant player in our weather. Strong insolation, slight strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge, and increasing thicknesses as the upper ridge further expands into our area will allow temperatures to tick upwards with areas generally north of a San Angelo to San Saba line seeing highs in the 100-103 range. It looks as though any chances of precipitation will stay to the west of our area with the monsoonal moisture over the higher terrain - though a few isolated showers in far western Crockett County cannot be totally ruled out.
The upper ridge will extend westward on Tuesday and Wednesday, and temperatures each afternoon will tick a few degrees higher than the previous day. As the case has been each day over the past week, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon with the greatest chances being in the higher terrain.
346 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The trough of low pressure off the West Coast will weaken for the weekend as high pressure over the south central states expands across the southwest states.
Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast, and patchy late night fog will again be possible. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the lower 90s, and afternoon heat index values will be 100-106.
119 PM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The upper trough over the Eastern Pacific will continue to weaken through the weekend while high pressure over the Central US strengthens and expands westward.
Atmosphere behind outflow boundaries stable right now below the higher terrain of the Black Hills. Wednesday, upper ridge amplifies slightly over the CWA with implied synoptic scale subsidence as thermal ridge expands slightly. Upper/thermal ridge portends a somewhat drier pattern for the end of the week.
Mid to upper level ridge (~594dm) is centered north of the region, providing northeast flow over Southeast TX. As the ridge slightly drifts north-northwest, this impulse of energy will continue to move westward into the Upper TX coast tonight into Wednesday.
The Florida Peninsula remains underneath the influence of upper- level ridging, with the feature centered over the central Gulf Coast. The pattern remains mostly static for at least the next few days as ridging remains in place and no real synoptic changes take place. For the weekend, however, there are indications that a more meridional flow over the SE could allow a trough axis to dig towards the Florida peninsula. In response, a WSW flow would be favored and - if this trough stalls across Florida, additional moisture may be present.
249 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The persistent plume of monsoonal moisture streaming into the Four Corners remains in place along the western perimeter of high pressure anchored over the Great Plains. Stream gauges in the Highway 550 corridor have recorded nearly 0.
Temperatures started the morning quite mild, about 7 to 13 degrees warmer than yesterday morning and at 11 am were 4 to 7 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. Partly to mostly cloudy skies cover the region early this morning as the upper trough remains off the coast.
Breezy southwest winds along with slightly below normal temperatures will continue each afternoon through Wednesday as a trough of low pressure remains in place along the west coast. This trough will lift out during the second part of the week and be replaced with a ridge over the Four Corners region. Each day as we progress through the week, winds will diminish, and temperatures will increase due to rising heights from a high pressure over the southern Plains. Today and Wednesday A trough of low pressure in place along the west coast will result in another breezy day across the region today and keep temperatures a few degrees below seasonal norms. The trough will begin to lift north by Wednesday as high pressure begins to build across the Four Corners region.
Similar low temperatures to this morning are expected again tonight with little change to the air mass stretched across the high plains.
326 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The main headlines continue to be the heat and humidity this week along with the chance for daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms as an upper level ridge is over the FA.
1051 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Drier air aloft will be moving over the region from the south with the upper high center remaining to the east of NM. An overall decrease in storm coverage is expected Wednesday with warmer temperatures.
409 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit through the Maritimes on Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Heat will build today and Wednesday as a strong upper level ridge becomes centered over our area while sprawling across all the southern states.
(This evening through Wednesday) Hot and dry conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge remains centered across the Southeast United States.
MCV over northern Franklin/southeast Huntingdon County at 18Z and associated cluster of showers/tstorms will continue to track ESE through the lower Susquehanna Valley this afternoon.
Temperatures have rapidly fallen into the low/mid-70s immediately in its wake. With this lowered confidence see no reason to make drastic changes to the overall thinking in chances for precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening. More widespread thunderstorm chances look likely after sunset across southwest into central Nebraska with the increase of the low level jet.
- A bit cooler the next couple of days, otherwise mainly above normal temperatures through the period.