Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
316 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Weak southeasterly winds in advance of a cold front will allow stratus to back across north central Nebraska overnight and may provide for some patchy fog around dawn. Thursday night the northern plains trough continues to track towards the Great Lakes with ridge building across the Rockies.
Winds will pick up later this evening ahead of a cold front and should help dissipate the smoke.
345 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 The upper low is seen well on the visible imagery over NE AR and is now moving quickly away to the NE as fresh high pressure off the plains builds Southeastward and deepens the NW flow upwards in the atmosphere clearing skies.
South Florida will remain on the south side of the low level ridge with moderate easterly flow advecting these clouds across the region through the day. High pressure will continue to remain over South Florida today into Thanksgiving day keeping the weather mostly dry along with easterly wind flow.
The RAP/NAM hold on to the low level moisture and clouds with some decrease toward Norfolk by mid afternoon. With the light winds and low level moisture should see the low clouds fill back in and could be some patchy fog as well. A 120kt jet will help the h5 trough over the West Coast this morning to quickly advance toward the Rockies Thursday morning.
Sunshine will be noted in most areas on Thursday as high pressure builds over the area from the Plains.
Low pressure being analyzed on surface analysis over central Idaho with a trailing cold front into northwest Utah and northeastern Nevada. 700mb winds really begin ramping up towards 00Z today, up to 40kts as the low approaches.
227 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Upper level trof with embedded s/wv energy making rapid progress ENE, with widespread rain showers along I-55 in SEMO, east across the rest of the CWFA.
320 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Outflow boundary/pre-frontal trough serving as a mini cold front ahead of the main front. Actual cold front is still back to the west but should move into the are later this evening and overnight without much fanfare. A secondary surge of cooler air will move into the area for the weekend.
1212 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over the mid Mississippi Valley will weaken as it moves towards the Great Lakes today.
1245 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure builds over the Tri-State today.
/Issued 324 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016/ Overall moisture increases today and tonight as a cold front over the mid U. moves to the Lower-Mid MS valley late day. An upper level trough associated moves across the area tonight with a weak short wave on Thursday.
We also looked at Bordeaux but the position of the mean sea level pressure pressure trof was not as clear cut on when that trof will slide east to allow those winds to really increase. This will also be factored on how much the upper level trof slows down or amplifies. The next issue is the snowfall potential in the mountains tonight and how much will occur in the high plains west of the Laramie Range. Even though there is not a great deal of moisture present it may be able to squeak out 2 to 3 inches in the mountain with values mainly an inch or less in the high plains such as Rawlins and Douglas. This may yield to some snow accumulation along the mid level trof as it passes through.
A short wave ridge is currently moving east across the Dakotas and providing some WAA over my west and is trying to erode clouds. Embedded mid level trough over the Intermountain West will propagate east tonight into the Rockies. Low pressure develops in response over the high plain of Wyoming and moves east into western SD by 12Z, then morphs into an elongated trough during the morning/early afternoon as it moves across central into eastern SD. Placement of the trough puts the favorable low level forcing right along the ND/SD border, which has been fairly consistent with the last several model runs.
310 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Latest 20z surface analysis indicates low pressure over western Illinois with trough extending north into western Wisconsin. Low pressure/trough and associated lift/forcing moves east into Michigan tonight.
310 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Weak ridging across the SRN CONUS will give way to an approaching trough axis across the Great Basin. The bulk of the energy associated with this trough will pass to our north though, with the lack of moisture SFC-UNLTD, we won't see just a lot of effects other than a dry frontal boundary Thanksgiving afternoon.
1215 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front will bring some rain chances to the region this afternoon.
Dry high pressure will return for Thursday and persist through the first half of the weekend. Trough centered over the California coast this morning with the associated front over eastern Nevada. However, with temperatures rapidly moving below freezing this evening/overnight, there is potential for black ice, particularly on bridges and overpasses. Overall, the storm is expected to be a quick hitter, with the best precip over the state occurring before midnight, though some showers could linger overnight over the higher terrain. High pressure will move in quickly behind the exiting system during the day Thursday and remain in place through the first part of the weekend. Southerly winds will increase late this morning at the KSLC terminal as a cold front approaches from the West.
Have gone with areas of fog in the grids for this afternoon and evening, timing the decrease from west to east as the front passes and winds increase, although gridded guidance has been focusing on the areas from about Bloomington-Lawrenceville eastward as potentially being the lowest visibility. However, we are at that time of year where the sun angle does little to help erode the low clouds, and currently the cloud deck extends all the way back into central parts of Kansas and Nebraska.
231 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Dry high pressure will be off the coast tonight ahead of a weak front approaching from the west by morning.
Cold front is located just to the east of the ID/OR border, and will move through Boise before noon and Twin Falls/Jerome mid-afternoon. Snow levels were between 3500 and 4500 feet although the bulk of the accumulating snows have been ahead of the cold front above 4500 feet. Cold front estimated to be along the Oregon/Idaho border at 16Z and will shift east of the forecast area after 21Z. Quite impressive satellite imagery early this morning with a distinct cold front now inland in WA and OR, and another cold front in the North Pacific 140W. KCBX radar shows pcpn increasing in eastern Oregon as the first cold front approaches.
237 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure over the area will move east as a frontal system pushes into the state tonight. A cold front now over the Mid and Southern Mississippi River Valley will continue moving east rapidly over the next 24 hours pushing increased cloud cover and precipitation into North GA tonight. The highest POPs in the forecast right now are right around 30 percent between 06z-15z Thu.
235 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Cold front is just west of STL metro area as of 19z and continues to track east across forecast area. Most of the dynamics and moisture will stay north of the area while the attendant cold front moves through, so have kept the forecast dry.
125 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A low pressure system will move through the area today into Thursday.
1151 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Minor adjustments to the morning forecast concerning persistent cloud cover and pockets of fog in the higher elevations of the Sisseton hills. NAM has increased QPF/Snow amounts in a localized band of moderate intensity snow that will travel between Mobridge - Aberdeen - Watertown. The region is currently under a broad upper level trough with light surface winds. This stratus deck may erode some from the southwest later tonight as winds become southerly ahead of a low pressure system. With temperatures near freezing, believe snowfall amounts will range between a dusting to one inch for most areas. Slightly higher amounts will be possible in the eastern portion of the CWA where better low level moisture and cooler temps are possible.
Temperatures appear on track to reach the lower 20s for all areas, especially as plume of subtropical moisture and high-level cloudiness is now beginning to depart to the southeast. Based on reasoning mentioned above, winds will be a bit stronger in our elevated terrain locations and this will drive wind chills into the lower teens and single digits. Strong northerly flow will continue to advect colder air southward, and daytime highs will remain in the low to mid 30s, despite clear skies.
/issued 222 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ The remainder of the snow is moving east of the area with freezing temperatures across most of the CWA except south of the Davis Mountains, portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and along the Rio Grande.
701 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough extending from the central MAN/SASK border into eastern ND. Actually, global models handling current shsn area better than the high resolution models which are generally dry. If skies completely clear, look for temperatures to be around the low 20s below zero.
/issued 257 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ Arctic high pressure continues to settle into the Mid South today and will remain overhead through the remainder of the week before moving east by this weekend.
Strong cold advection will continue tonight with temperatures falling into the lower 20s north to around 30 south. It could be at late as 10-11AM tomorrow morning before temps rise above freezing across the far north.
High pressure will nose into the region tonight and slowly push East through Friday night. There is a stratus deck over the Northeastern third or so of the state that will continue to shift off to the East as the high moves in and the upper flow becomes less influenced by a short wave that is exiting.
Cp based arctic high pressure at the surface will sweep its ridgeline across the Mississippi river valley through Friday. Trajectories and modified soundings/forecasts suggest High temps tmrw struggling toward the freezing mark, after FA-wide teens tonight.
Atmospheric moisture has begun to deepen across the higher elevations of NW CO but will be become more widespread and bring dewpoints up across all of eastern UT and western CO throughout the next 24 hours.
Latest surface analysis indicated a stationary boundary sitting along the Florida Straits and a cold front draped across the central Florida peninsula. On Friday, as the cold front continues to push south over our region, surface winds will shift to the north and northeast. Cooler air will also spread across South Florida with Forecast high temperatures around 10 degrees lower than todays.
Despite winds becoming southerly on Friday, the proximity of the high center will keep temperatures below average for this time of year with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
/issued 326 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ Another cold night is in store with temperatures dropping to near 10 degrees in the north and the lower 20s in the south with the coldest temperatures of the season thus far expected in many areas.
628 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A cold front will move east of the Midlands this evening.
Clouds between FL090-FL120 appear to be associated with moisture at the base of a broad 700mb trough. This trough should slide eastward through the next 6-12 hours which may result in a scattering of the FL090-FL120 ceilings, first at the DFW Metroplex around midnight and then a few hours later at Waco. Winds are expected to become light during the overnight hours as high pressure settles in across the region. As high pressure slides towards East TX, some return flow sets up along the western periphery of the high. Friday will be a much warmer day even though the morning will start out very cold. Progressive zonal flow will prevail through the weekend which will result in the development of a surface lee trough across the High Plains and the return of Gulf moisture.
545 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Deep cyclonic flow persists across the region with low pressure in southeastern Canada and expansive high pressure in the Plains the controlling surface features. The resultant gusty west-northwest surface winds will diminish this evening and especially overnight as high pressure gradually shifts eastward from the Plains.
A few lingering flurries east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota are expected to diminish through the mid-late afternoon, with mostly clear skies and decreasing winds dominating over the rest of the forecast area.
Freezing rain is still a small possibility this evening across some parts of central Nevada but a switchover to all valley rain will occur overnight as temperatures rise above freezing.
Much cooler airmass arrives later tonight. Very fast southwest-west flow aloft is noted in water vapor imagery across the southeast and east CONUS associated with mid/upper level trough extending from Great Lakes to the S Central U. as strong sfc cold front over SE GA at 8 pm. in the lowest radar scans moving toward N Central FL this evening.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 20s, although a few locations may drop into the upper teens. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected across locations where cloud cover persists into the morning hours. Highs on Friday will mainly be in the low to mid 40s. Warmer temperatures this weekend, followed by a weak cold Dry and warmer weather is slated for this weekend, with south to southwest winds returning to the area.
with the ridge axis eventually reaching the Mississippi River by Friday evening. central Illinois will continue to be influenced by cyclonic flow around a deep upper low over Quebec.
This will mean that the low clouds that are currently blanketing all but our far southeast zones may hang tough through the night over much of the area.
Temperatures on Friday to climb into the low to mid 40s.
703 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A cold front will cross the area tonight bringing much colder air and scattered snow showers.
Rather strong high pressure over the mid section of the country will build slowly southeast and provide northerly low level winds/cool air advection locally. A broad mid-upper level trough over the eastern U. Forecast soundings even show the low level dry layer holding on in the south, so the chance for light rain there looks to be 30 percent or less. Am not confident enough to make any major changes though, since high pressure building in will slowly strengthen low level cold advection and partially compensate for the extensive cloud cover. High pressure building out of the mid section of the country will tighten the pressure gradient and provide a gusty northerly wind flow starting overnight and lasting through Fri.
The warm front, accompanied by above- freezing temperatures, was situated across southern Oregon. There is still a slight chance for light freezing rain just ahead of the front, but model runs depict little or no precip amounts. Therefore, the freezing rain is not a concern at this time.
Although some sunshine filtered though the high thin clouds today, it was still a chilly day across the area with temps 5 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday afternoon's temps.
With clear skies and winds dropping off overnight, temperatures will fall into the lower teens to upper single digits across the Ozarks tonight. The high pressure will allow plenty of sunshine for the region during the day Friday. This will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the freezing mark.
The higher mountains can expected west and northwesterlies strong enough for some blowing snow. For temperatures, Friday's highs will be 8 to 13 C warmer than today's highs.
Temps in the low to mid 30s at this hour will drop off rapidly early this evening, especially with dew points in the low to mid teens. Elsewhere, plenty of sunshine could help temps rise to near freezing.
Cooler, drier air will move over the area, but with winds expected to be high enough to create good mixing in the boundary layer, have went a bit above guidance with respect to lows tonight.
All of this will work together to make a rather tricky low temperature forecast tonight as any 1-3 hour period with calm winds and clear skies will result in several degrees cooler for low temperatures, but there is potential that clear skies and calm winds will not align in time and space tonight.
This will allow cooler temperatures. Upper level analysis places flat ridge over the west coast with northwest flow over our area.
807 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A cold front will move east of the Midlands this evening.
410 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Forecast appears to be on track with previous expectations regarding lows flirting with freezing in the northern portions of the forecast area tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 41 23 44 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 21 36 20 41 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 22 38 21 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 34 17 38 / 0 0 0 0.
/Issued 151 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ A short wave trough over northern and northeastern New Mexico will impact the western Panhandles tonight. Some very light snow or light freezing drizzle possible across the western portions of the forecast area between 06Z and 18Z Friday.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Plains with a weak trof moving through the Great Lakes. On Friday, high pressure from the Plains will move into the area. The high will allow a partial break up of the remaining clouds across the northeast half of the area. However, due to a warmer layer of air aloft, the possibility does exist that the clouds will remain across the area on Friday.
844 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 A weak surface trof noted on the latest analysis this evening over east central Iowa has been producing scattered flurries across the forecast area, especially over the north and east. We expect this activity to continue until the trof axis shifts off to our east by Friday morning. We did have some brief clearing from Springfield west to Jacksonville over the past few hours, but that is about to end as the lower clouds settle back to the south this evening. with the ridge axis eventually reaching the Mississippi River by Friday evening. central Illinois will continue to be influenced by cyclonic flow around a deep upper low over Quebec.
Arctic high pressure remains over the region with 1045mb center stretching across the MT/ND border into western/central SD. then this low level forcing will shift into central SD through the mid to late morning hours.
Cold front well offshore at this time with solid gale force winds through marine areas. Expect temperatures to remain above freezing. Forecast quiets down tomorrow and tomorrow night with high pressure building.
These winds, combined with temperatures dropping into the lower/middle teens, will produce predawn wind chills in the single digits above and below zero.
/issued 410 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ Forecast appears to be on track with previous expectations regarding lows flirting with freezing in the northern portions of the forecast area tonight.
Tweaked evening and overnight sky grids to better match satellite trends, otherwise the rest of the forecast in good shape with low temperatures a couple to few degrees warmer than those last night Issued at 230 PM PST Thu Dec 8 201.
Latest visible satellite imagery indicates that clouds are finally starting to erode across the TN Valley, as high pressure slowly builds across the region. This will combine with our light winds to create very cold wind chill values, with locations in the higher elevations experience single digits. This is also expected to be a long duration freeze event, as our temperatures will fall below freezing between 9 and 10 pm and will likely remain below freezing through much of Friday morning. Strong northerly flow will continue to advect colder air southward, and daytime highs will remain in the low to mid 30s, despite clear skies.
Northwest flow aloft is over the area as arctic high pressure has settled over the area at the surface. The arctic air mass impacting the High Plains slides further east and warmer air surges north into the region Friday night.
815 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 High pressure will continue to build in across the CWFA through tomorrow.
Temperatures in the lower 50s to mid 40s this afternoon. Tomorrow night still looks to be the coolest night through the forecast period with freezing temperatures expected in all zones except St.
Although the overall flow pattern appears nearly identical this evening from the past couple days, 00Z sounding data sampled H5 heights 4-5dm higher than this morning (576-580dm range locally) with H8 temperatures around 2C warmer than yesterday afternoon. Consequently, ambient air temperatures were somewhat warmer than 24 hours ago, and this subtle warming trend will continue the next few days. They all keep the Desert Southwest under flat ridging/dry northwesterly flow aloft as the main longwave trough remains positioned well off to our north over central Canada and the central US, with very strong ridging building northward across the eastern Pacific into Alaska as time goes on.
Water vapor loop indicated upper level trough from the central MAN/SASK border to the Red River. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough extending from the central MAN/SASK border into eastern ND. Actually, global models handling current shsn area better than the high resolution models which are generally dry. If skies completely clear, look for temperatures to be around the low 20s below zero.
Through tonight into Friday, the axis of the high pressure moves off into eastern Kansas and Missouri while surface pressure lowers in the lee of the Rockies. Slightly warmer conditions are expected in the southwest corner where lows are expected to bottom out in the mid teens.
41 High pressure will continue to build in across the CWFA through tomorrow.
Upper level analysis places flat ridge over the west coast with northwest flow over our area.
A 1044 mb polar dome of high pressure is centered just east of the Canadian Rockies. As the high builds southeast overnight, the trend of increasing winds and lower dewpoints will spread southeast through the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a cold front will reach the Florida keys overnight.
Southerly flow will also draw warmer temperatures and increasing moisture ahead of the next system.
814 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016 Clear skies, light winds, snow cover and arctic high pressure combining for plummeting temperatures over eastern zones this evening.
A cold front will continue to move very slowly across the mid state overnight.
1140 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 After a round of morning fog, skies have become mostly sunny across the area with highs reaching into the low 80s for most locations. Convection has formed across the high plains of Colorado and far western Kansas, and is slowly making its way eastward. On Sunday, not expecting a repeat of the fog given increasing southerly winds through the period, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer today in the middle 80s. Models are in smilier agreement with the main jet stream carrying embedded upper waves across the far northern CONUS while an upper ridge dominates the southern plains and a cut off low rotates off the CA coast.
911 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016 The weak cold front has made it through Billings and is now moving into Rosebud County. As of early this afternoon, clouds were increasing from the west as moist zonal flow begins to overtake the Northern Rockies and subsequently break down the ridge over the region. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday with breezy west to northwest winds across the area.
A weak short wave trof moving through the Ohio Valley region was tapping into some very deep tropical moisture over the Central Gulf States. Areas east of I-65 have seen very little rainfall today, but the upper level forcing associated with the short wave trof will eventually shift into areas east of I-65 later this afternoon and evening. The loss of daytime heating will result in the areal coverage decreasing significantly after sunset, but small rain chances will continue throughout the night as the main short wave trof approaches from the northwest.