Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
late this afternoon the low was over west central Wisconsin while showers and a few thunderstorms were rotating around the low.
The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure as well as deep boundary layer mixing have resulted in breezy northwesterly winds over most of the South Dakota plains. Western CONUS ridge hardly moves keeping the CWA under dry northwest flow aloft. Models do show weak WAA going into Sunday and expect temperatures to be about 5 to 7 degrees warmer on Sunday compared to Saturday. Massive western noam ridge will dominate the weather in the period. Models have converged upon much stronger ridging over the northern plains, with probs for warm temps higher. Mainly dry wx expected per staunch ridging, with potentially an isold shra/ts tues on per high terrain mix out in return flow with weak subtle sw flow impulses.
The weekend remains dry with warming temperatures as the high amplitude upper ridge remains in place over the western United States and an area of high pressure at the surface drops south through the central high plains region on it's way to the southern plains by late Sunday.
With the rain and snow today, and generally light winds expected tonight as high pressure moves across the area, have added a mention of fog.
555 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 A weak trough is stalled across the region this afternoon. The Southerly winds in front of the trough is allowing warm temperatures today which are well above normal. A strong low pressure system will be moving into the region Thursday afternoon which will significantly increase the Southerly winds and the moisture transport across the region.
Showers are anticipated to increase in coverage tonight and into tomorrow morning as a cold front works through the region.
The upper low has moved off the west coast of Florida this afternoon while a mid level ridge has built over the Mid-South. Another very mild day on tap as we remain under the influence of the upper ridge over the southern U. Low pressure developing over the plains will begin to move northeast into the Mississippi Valley Thursday night.
Forecast soundings indicate low and mid level drying as high pressure begins to build aloft.
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance We will begin the short term period with a continuation of near record warmth as surface ridging continues ahead of the next advancing cold front over the Plains and Midwest states. Morning low temps Thu in the 50s will be followed by day time highs in the lower to mid 70s despite the presence of considerable cloud cover much of the day.
Northwest flow behind broad upper trough over Rockies will prevail over NorCal with a couple of weak disturbances dropping southeast.
Surface map shows high pressure situated to the east with S/SE flow keeping temperatures and dew points unseasonably warm.
515 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure moving east through southern Canada will drag the boundary back north as a warm front. leading to a mild night tonight and warmer day Thursday. A weak shallow cold front will try and push south across the area by Thursday evening.
Some 5kft moisture locked in across the Lower Miss Valley to our east but that cloud cover should stay to our east overnight.
Southwesterly winds have remained gusty ahead of the trough with areas southeast of the turnpike receiving gusts near 20 mph. The low RH's coupled with gusty winds will continue to create very high fire danger through the afternoon and early evening hours. As the low pushes eastward into southwestern KS, a warm front will progress northward across the CWA. Further north and east across the CWA, forecast soundings suggest a more moist LL environment, thus have the highest PoPs across far northeast KS. NAM bufr soundings along and north of the warm front in NE KS depict 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted at 850 mb with 30-40 kts of effective shear values, though the GFS has a much stronger warm nose and subsequently less instability.
Deep moisture associated with an upper level low will continue to move off to our east tonight. Highs are expected to reach the lower 70s.
Locally, mixing should reach around 875-900mb yielding highs in the lower to perhaps middle 70s.
The mid-upper level portion is highly anomalous, especially this far south, in fact, the 00Z KKEY 500 mb height (567 dm) is the lowest height for the date based on SPC's Sounding Climatology Page. The highest gauge and radar totals were in a strip from Sugarloaf to northern Big Pine Key, where 3. Moderate west to northwest breezes will persist as a slow moving area of low pressure drifts east across the Florida Peninsula. A low pressure system straddling central Florida will retain slight rain chances at either terminal.
A cold front will move through the region this evening bringing a few light showers to portions of the southern Great Basin. Cooler air will also filter into the region Thursday with below normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend.
/issued 341 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ Latest UA analysis and recent WV images shows upper low east of the area, moving toward FL. Overall, a rather pleasant aftn underway with temperatures in the lower 70s acrs LA and upper 70s/near 80 acrs southeast TX. Benign weather expected the next few days as weak ridging aloft transits the area. Highs Thursday are expected to reach the upper 70s/near 80 with the passage of the weak mid/upper ridge.
A cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma after 23z Thursday.
Kept a slight chance for thunder across nrn areas as well with lift from the mid level low and stronger low level convergence north of the developing low pressure area. NAM and HRRR models are the most aggressive with tight pressure gradient affecting nrn waters into THU morning north of a developing low pressure area across the east central FL Atlc waters. Developing weaker offshore flow south of the low pressure area will bring improving conditions into Thursday south of Sebastian Inlet.
Dry downslope flow in combination with a strong low level thermal ridge across the area will result in another unseasonably warm day on Thursday, with afternoon highs 25 to 30 degrees above normal.
Went with a blend of guidance, but going a bit closer to the cooler numbers due to the good radiational cooling and lighter boundary layer winds. Stayed on the warmer side of guidance, and am going for record highs in Corpus and Laredo. A few more clouds on Thursday night as a upper trough moves toward the area, but overall it will be more clear than clouds. Light southwest wind toward morning over CRP area will make the minimum temperature fall a bit more than normal, but still going to on the warmer side of guidance for Corpus.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a low amplitude ridge over Texas with nearly zonal flow. At the surface, a weak trough was moving across our northern area. The upper level ridge will move to the east and a trough will move across the southern Rockies during this period. A cold front will move to our northern border by the end of the period.
In addition, there is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the North Bay through this evening.
957 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak low pressure near Florida will keep onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through Thursday.
Latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance continues to show a developing low pressure system moving northeast into SW Kansas by Thursday.
538 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was moving across northern Minnesota. Soundings continue to suggest that this precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain during the evening and as the atmospheric column cools after midnight that this precipitation will change to a wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain.
Lows in the low 20s to near 20, with some spots across the borderland falling to the teens as skies clear out.
Impressive tightly-wound low pressure system centered near Twin Falls will be the focus for locally moderate to heavy snow showers through Thursday evening.
638 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak low pressure near Florida will keep onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through Thursday.
740 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 early evening radar data shows the bulk of the shower activity has shifted into the Atlantic coastal waters as a low pressure system over the eastern Gulf continues to approach the Florida peninsula. Therefore, this lower vis has been put into the taf site of KAPF for late tonight.
As high pressure shifts eastward winds will become east to southeast this evening and tonight and increase and become gusty during the late morning hours Thursday. /issued 319 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface have continued to provide plenty of subsidence throughout the entire column this afternoon across Deep South Texas, leading to hot and dry conditions once again. Thursday, there will be elevated fire spread and growth concerns again with slightly higher winds shifting to the south/southeast as a low pressure system develops across the Central Plains.
An upper low is currently spinning across the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. Some light isolated rain showers are wrapping around this upper low swinging around it from east to west across the area this afternoon but are tiny/spotty and should not last long at any one spot. This convection should decrease in coverage as we progress toward sunset and the upper low continues to nudge toward the southern half of Florida.
Much colder temperatures are forecast for Thursday behind a cold front moving through the area overnight. Passage of a strong cold front overnight, followed by much colder temperatures tomorrow, will be the main story over the next 18-24 hours.
However, elevated instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 60 kts of deep layer shear could still support the development of some elevated strong storms along and near the warm front, and bears watching tomorrow as precip develops.
/issued 310 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ The low-mid level cloud cover that blanketed northern and central LA earlier today, has finally cleared almost all but a sliver of southwest AR, thanks to a pesky upper level low pressure system slowly moving east-southeast across the Gulf of Mexico towards FL. The light and variable sfc winds of today will become more south-southeasterly tonight, as an ua trough shifts east to north of the Four-corners region and its sfc counterpart nears the Panhandle region. In addition, the quick passage of a low-amplitude ua ridge coupled with an uptick in 850 mb temps will provide for an upsurge in temps /a few 70s, mainly in the 80s/.
625 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure over Wisconsin will move eastward into Quebec on Thursday. This will allow a weakening cold front to sag into Northern Ohio. THis boundary will stall over central Ohio and drift northward as a warm front Thursday night.
429 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017 Upper analysis shows a weak wave moving through the northern plains, and a trough pushing in over the west coast. Low pressure will deepen tonight as trough swings over the Rockies. Cold air will wrap into the area with easterly winds, and snow will expand northward across much of SD as the low moves across NE. Best frontogenesis still looks to be along the SD/NE border, with the higher amounts expected there. The 12Z NAM has come in with a slightly stronger low with a more northerly track, bringing the higher amounts of snow northward.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The base of a broad upper trough has descended south into the Baja where it's picking up moisture off the warmer Pacific. The base of the trough will dig across the Great Basin, undercutting Montana for the most part. The trough is split with the Arctic portion centered over Hudson bay.
927 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure over Wisconsin will move eastward into Quebec on Thursday. This will allow a weakening cold front to sag into Northern Ohio. THis boundary will stall over central Ohio and drift northward as a warm front Thursday night.
811 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing broad upper level cyclonic rotation across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico associated with the deep area of low pressure that moved into the region today. Through the next few hours, the highest rain chances in the forecast area will be generally limited to the Nature Coast and interior portions of West-Central Florida but these rain chances will gradually dwindle and continue to shift east through the overnight hours. The large area of low pressure that brought numerous showers into the area today will slowly continue to trek east across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic tonight and Thursday.
646 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 At H5 upper trough coming on shore in the Pacific Northwest Large closed low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mainly zonal flow over the lower 48 with the exception of Pacific Northwest. Upper closed low forms over the Great Basin tonight with diffluence aloft over western Nebraska developing through the early morning hours of Thursday. Upglide and cold front moving south into western Nebraska with a mix of precipitation early as the cold air moves south.
On Thursday there is an upper level low approaching the forecast area.
Then Thursday will have increasing chances for rain late as a low pressure system approaches from the Plains.
Therefore, this lower vis has been put into the taf site of KAPF for late tonight.
Latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed an upper low just west of Tampa with weak ridging over the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the mid-Atlantic with low pressure over the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show some saturation taking place in the low levels after midnight which may bring a round of patchy fog to parts of the area. On Thursday, the aforementioned washed out boundary will lift north as a warm front thanks to a developing low over the central Plains. Otherwise, plan on highs in the low/mid 70s with breezy southerly flow by afternoon.
We have a weak cold front that just pushed south of Evansville and should stall over the Jackson Purchase area up through Mount Vernon Illinois by morning. Monday chances will increase as we have the combination of a weak ripple in the flow aloft a stalled cold front and sufficient low level moisture. However still not deep level moisture but we do lose the cap south of the Ohio River as the front lifts back north as a warm front.
A more significant and widespread cool down is forecast for the middle of the upcoming work week as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. A 576DM low pressure trough continues to reside over portions of the Golden State this afternoon. The trough axis has not shifted much since this morning, and remains oriented approximately from Santa Barbara to Mammoth Mountain and east of the forecast area. The trough is generating thunderstorms over the central and southern Sierra Nevada, while locally generating only limited cumulus development over the elevated terrain of Monterey and San Benito counties. Meanwhile, a 596DM high pressure ridge is building closer towards the California coast in the wake of the aforementioned trough and a low pressure system looms in the Gulf of Alaska. Forecast models depict the eastern Pacific ridge retrograding from the Pacific coastline tomorrow.
This outflow has become stationary the past hour or so with cooler and cloudless skies to the east and warm/muggy conditions west. some cooler east flow in the eastern forecast area will keep readings a little lower there.
923 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Upper low to trek east overnight. with the highest rain chances to remain across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
The highest potential for marginally severe hail and outflow winds of 50-60 mph is across the NW zones and this evening, while the available CAPE is maximized.
The cooling trend that got underway today will continue through midweek an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast.
An upper level ridge will keep mostly benign wx across the area through the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers and storms developed this afternoon just ahead of a weak upper low. Short range models continue to advect a weak upper low eastward into the Ozarks tonight into Monday.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Sunshine and temperatures in the 70s this afternoon remain in place thanks to high pressure over the region. An upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest and closed low off the coast of British Columbia will help orient southwest upper flow over Montana.
717 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cold front continues southward push.
One stronger cell along the I-75 corridor over Columbia and Union Counties where southern edge of the trof axis and most best 1-3 kilometer moisture resides. The aforementioned trof axis extends down from the VA/NC coast into the Big Bend region of Florida with trailing cold front extending from NC to through TN/KY into southern IL. On Monday the cold front will seep to just south of Savannah to just north of Macon to near Calhoun Georgia while a short wave ridge will be over the SE U.
1122 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 We will remain under northwest flow for most of the coming week as a strong ridge builds over central North America. No significant issues with high pressure in dry airmass. A tad warmer than Sunday.
/issued 228 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016/ Upper level ridging was slowly building in from the west in advance of a storm system moving into Nevada and California. Overall instability levels are down a notch from yesterday and convective inhibition is up a bit from yesterday at this time while deep layer shear remains on the low side, but if storms are able to mature, there remains enough energy to support a brief strong to marginally severe storm. After another mild night tonight with lows ranging from the mid-60s to lower 70s, the building upper ridge will provide even hotter temperature tomorrow with highs in the mid-upper 90s common.
SPC day 1 outlook has all of eastern ND and all of our NW and WC MN counties in a slight risk, with the high resolution models kicking storms off by mid to late afternoon and lasting into the evening. Monday then looks quiet with high pressure overhead.
Cloud cover will gradually decrease with lows generally in the low 70s.
As high pressure settles in across the Gulf of Mexico, expect prevailing light west to northwest winds overnight. With rich low level moisture, expect a rather mild and damp night, with lows ranging from the low 70s inland, to the mid 70s near the coast. Winds look to become more southwesterly late in the week, as the ridge axis slips into south Florida and the Bahamas.
1006 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 We will remain under northwest flow for most of the coming week as a strong ridge builds over central North America. No significant issues with high pressure in dry airmass. A tad warmer than Sunday.
753 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight and early Monday. Overnight lows expected in the lower to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. A secondary cold front/trough will move into or through the area Monday morning. The GFS is more aggressive driving slightly cooler/drier air south of the region than NAM. and this is reflected in the cooler MAV guidance. Weak downslope early and warm advection/upper level ridge/mos cool bias suggest temperatures will only be a little cooler. So continued forecast maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s as surface winds shift to east.
929 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Weak surface boundary along the Red River of Northeast Texas and Southeast Oklahoma combined with an upper-trough and enhanced sea-breeze contributing to strong thunderstorms across the region during much of the evening.
834 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure will build over the area through Monday.
Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. (Monday Night through Sunday) Looks like summertime weather for this week as an upper level ridge builds over the area.
803 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front is currently pushing through the area this afternoon and will bring drier and cooler air in its wake. High pressure will build south into the region tonight. The high will remain over the area on Monday. Warm and more humid conditions will return by mid week as the high moves east, allowing a weather system to approach from the west. A cold front is currently pushing through Wilmington with drier and cooler air slowly working its way south behind the front. Have gone slightly higher than this across the southwest and slightly cooler than this across the northeast.
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure will build over the area for tonight and Monday.
751 PM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area tonight and Monday. Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a weak upper low over the area. This upper low is resulting in some instability over the mountains. The upper low has also resulted in a deep marine layer that was close to 5000 ft earlier this morning. The low clouds will be stubborn to burn off this afternoon and most areas probably won't see any clearing.
919 PM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure off the coast will move inland tonight and weaken through Monday.
705 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Winds will diminish with loss of daytime heating this evening as ridging builds in allowing flow to become more northerly and variable. Interior parts of the Thumb may be just a bit cooler than that, while the heat island of interior Metro Detroit may help keep low temperatures in the low 50s. Still, the dry low level air that has been ushered into the area with this high will limit shower and thunderstorm potential as this trough works into the area.
At mid afternoon the low pressure was over southeast North Dakota while a warm front extended from the low and across central MN and central WI. These storms have been forming along the instability gradient that has been marching eastward as the low level jet increases ahead of the low pressure.
1156 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes tonight into the eastern Great Lakes by Monday night. Interior parts of the Thumb may be just a bit cooler than that, while the heat island of interior Metro Detroit may help keep low temperatures in the low 50s. Still, the dry low level air that has been ushered into the area with this high will limit shower and thunderstorm potential as this trough works into the area.
Temperatures where there have been thunderstorms have cooled into the lower 70s with other areas still in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will be rather warm with highs in the lower 90s.
648 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Continuing to look at convective chances tonight as cold front approaches from the west. As of 20z, cold front poised between Chamberlain and the James River Valley. High pressure builds into the northern plains on Monday, with a gradual decreasing trend of pops from north to south throughout the day.
Monday Through Monday Night Monday, upper trough moves toward the plains as a better piece of energy moves from the four corners area into CO and WY and then into the Dakotas late. Suspect about 1KJ/kg MLCAPE will be available along trough that will move from western portions of the CWA to the SD plains Monday night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 72 91 73 / 40 30 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 66 90 70 / 10 10 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 93 66 90 71 / 10 10 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 57 89 67 / 0 0 30 40.
A fairly well defined upper low continues to spin over the Southern Plains. Weak lift is making its way around the low over the Southern Plains and has continued to support thunderstorms with instability of 2000 J/kg and weak shear of 20-25kts. At this time, it looks like we could mainly be seeing any thunderstorm and showers later in the morning into the early afternoon time frame as additional lift comes from the slowly advancing cold front from western Nebraska.