Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
340 AM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern CO, with inverted trough stretching northward into eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over western WY into eastern MT, with strong jet south and east of the low from the Rockies to the Central Plains. Temps are in the 40s and lower 50s across the area, with some upper 30s across the higher Black Hills. Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to develop and push east across the area through much of the day, lingering across south central SD into the evening, as weakening upper low crosses the region. However, a prefrontal trough passage in the morning will help to bring gusty west to northwest winds across much of the area, especially northwest SD.
Showers and thunderstorms will move into the southwest two thirds of the forecast area during the afternoon hours ahead of a northward moving warm front. Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than usual.
08Z analysis shows a weak warm front in the vicinity of the IA/MO border. Showers are then expected to become more widespread this evening and overnight as 850 hPa moisture transport increases dramatically south of the northward advancing warm front and ahead of a sharp 500 hPa trough. Temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 60s under cloudy skies and light easterly wind. In both cases, however, a cold front sweeps across the forecast area bringing additional showers and perhaps an afternoon rumble of thunder or two.
335 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Dry weather through the day Saturday, but the chance for rain increases late Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
406 AM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 An upper level trough will move across the area this aftn into the evening hours. For tonight pcpn should quickly end during the early evening hours across the plains as the upper level trough moves east and subsidence develops.
Prior discussion below: Tonight and Friday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain the ongoing quiet weather across the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Otherwise, highs will again be warmer than normal as they top out in the upper 80s.
323 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region today bringing cooler air to the region tonight and Saturday.
241 AM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Upper low will finally kick out of the northern Rockies today and across the central plains, with accompanying strong synoptic scale forcing. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s in northeast Colorado to the upper 70s south of the front.
An upper low will shift east across northern Utah through today.
With southerly return flow just developing this morning as high pressure moves out to the east, lower levels will have some difficulty saturating. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer than previous nights with southerly winds generally remaining sustained and some clouds present overnight.
203 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front over central Pennsylvania will lift slowly to the north as a warm front Friday night and Saturday bringing another late taste of summer-like weather to the region.
The focus for convection will shift east tonight along a cold front moving through the area, though with the trough located to our north rain chances will not be very high.
Therefore, have greatly lowered rain chances prior to midnight with generally only isolated precipitation prior to midnight and then continued to go with the high rain chances moving across the area from west to east after midnight.
A compact mid level potential vorticity anomaly will be at the base of a sharp trough over Colorado late in the day, and this will induce low level cyclogenesis just out ahead of it over far southeast Colorado. Initially veered out surface winds will slowly back to due south, if not slightly east of due south in a very small area just ahead of the low. The cold front will sweep southeast quickly as the main body of the upper trough moves into western Kansas by 06z, clearing out all precipitation rather quickly. The airmass behind the Friday Night cold front will be very downslope modified, so highs Saturday will only be slightly lower than Friday.
1129 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 An upper level trough currently stretching from central Montana to northeastern Nevada will push eastward into the Plains states by Friday afternoon. Ahead of this trough, sufficient instability, relatively deep moisture and favorable orographic forcing continue to bring a threat of convection to the San Juan Mountains east of Cortez. As the long wave trough that has been over the West for days finally leaves the region, a few isolated showers or even a thunderstorm will be possible across much of western Colorado Friday afternoon.
555 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 For the Four State Region expecting one more day of pleasant weather conditions under the weakening ridge of high pressure aloft that will continue to flatten and re-form. An inverted upper trough/wave will be shifting West across the Northern and Western Gulf of Mexico today and tonight. Also aloft an upper level low over the Northern Rockies has a trough axis reaching to the Southwest across Nevada and California which will swing to the East putting a continued squeeze on the upper ridge overhead and nudging the cold front South tonight and during the day Saturday.
A warm front currently extends from the central Plains eastward through the lower Great Lakes. We'll see variable cloudiness through the day, but peeks of sun combined with a steady S flow will allow temps to rise into the low and mid 80s. Expect another quiet night tonight with lows in the low and mid 60s. This will only reinforce the warm sector over our area, with another day of temps in the low and mid 80s. By afternoon, enough deep moisture return will combine with forcing ahead of the trough to kick of some showers and perhaps a storm.
A warm front will bring some more clouds and a chance of shower Saturday.
An upper system over the Great Basin will move east across the central plains tonight, helping to push a cold front through our area.
314 AM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017 High pressure centered northeast of Bermuda will extend west into the central and southern Appalachians through the weekend.
looking for a range from the low 50s north to near 60F S and E. Looking for highs Friday to range from the low 60s north.
1201 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 The warm front is now over northern Missouri and central Illinois moving slowly northward with just isolated showers over eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois.
A warm front will lift north late tonight with a few more showers, followed by very warm air this weekend.
Upper low shifting east into Montana/Wyoming today as a short wave ridge comes in from the northwest. The ridge will bring sunny and warmer weather to our area.
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ VFR conditions will continue at all area airports through the evening under high pressure. Dry and warm weather conditions are expected tonight through Friday evening as an upper level ridge dominates the area.
157 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front over central Pennsylvania will lift slowly to the north as a warm front Friday night and Saturday bringing another late taste of summer-like weather to the region.
206 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Surface map shows a ridge of high pressure bisecting the mid state early this morning, with radiation fog already forming in some locations. A cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the Great Plains remains locked in place due to the strength of the ridge.
The gusty winds will persist in the higher terrain during the overnight hours as the valleys stabilize after sunset. Precipitation will be mainly confined to the higher terrain as the broader valleys will experience downsloping effects due to the strong winds aloft. Snow levels will decrease across the Northern Rockies on Saturday night, following the passage of a cold front.
A low pressure trough will move east through the dakotas to near the MN/SD-ND border by Friday evening. Ahead of the low, a warm front will move north into the forecast region by Friday. Somewhat warmer and moist air will push into the region along with increased instability. The trough will move through NE MN by midday Saturday and will move out of NW WI by late Saturday afternoon.
High pressure and drier weather returns for the weekend.
A cold front will swing through Saturday afternoon bringing a slight chance of a brief rain shower. The GFS remains at the higher end of the guidance with the NAM and Canadian in the middle and the ECMWF likely too low only depicting winds around 15-20 mph. For this forecast utilized MOS Guidance as it tends to handle wind events well compared to some of the blends which underplay the higher end events.
An upper low over the central Rockies will track east across the Rockies and into the Plains states by tonight. Rounding the base of the upper trough, a strong vort lobe will track east from the Four Corners region and approach the forecast area by 00Z Saturday. A cold front will push south and east across the Panhandles by this evening and tonight.
154 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Persistent high pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Friday.
646 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front over central Pennsylvania will lift slowly to the north as a warm front later today through Saturday morning bringing another late taste of summer-like weather to the region.
Early this afternoon, the upper level synoptic pattern was characterized by relatively zonal flow across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An elongated ridge has been slowly suppressed to the south, from Texas to the Carolinas, with troughing over the western US. This will send the boundary to our north further northward as a warm front. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s in the south and east to the lower 60s in the north. With southerly flow in the low levels and at least partial sunshine, highs Friday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Southwest flow will deepen further Friday night ahead of the approaching trough, so lows will be quite mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
1127 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Large upper low sits across the northern Rockies with ridging over SW to central Canada. Upper low will slide eastward tonight into the Dakotas. Drier weather is expected Saturday as high pressure builds back in. Breezy northwest winds will develop during the day as a cold front pushes through.
The trough and non-tropical low pressure area responsible for all of our clouds, wind, and showers is now moving westward away from the area.
Mild and dry weather today will give way to cooler temperatures and some light showers this weekend.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large ridge running from southern Idaho through Montana and into central Manitoba. Behind it a large trough resides over British Columbia and is quickly moving into the Alberta Plains. Farther west, a ridge is developing south of the Aleutian Islands with a trough north of it over the Bearing Sea. Today: A ridge will pass over the area leaving dry conditions, light winds, and partly cloudy skies.
502 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Dry weather through the day Saturday, but the chance for rain increases late Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Will continue to see these clouds push east into the evening, but later through the overnight hours, clouds will once again move into the region ahead of the next area of low pressure. Warmer readings into the 40s expected further south where clouds will initially affect the CWA later tonight. The extended is a tale of two troughs. Then there will be a brief break over the weekend when the flow shifts to southwesterly and draws up warmer and drier air. Another trough transitions in for the start of the work week.
A weakening cold front will push into the region over the weekend. Friday morning fog and/or low stratus will slowly lift as the stationary boundary across northern Ohio lifts north as a warm front. During the day Friday some weak mid-level ridging will temporarily move overhead with 850 mb temperatures rebounding.
Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the low to mid 50s.
Areas across southcentral Missouri have had more sunshine and warmer temps. If clouds clear out more than forecast then highs would need to be raised however currently highs in the lower 80s look reasonable with increasing south winds. Saturday will be a cooler day however afternoon clearing will help temps recover/level out somewhat.
Upper low shifting east into Montana/Wyoming today as a short wave ridge comes in from the northwest. The ridge will sunny and warmer weather to our area.
The highest rates should last maybe an hour or two given the fast motion of the system so 1-1. The trough lifts out Saturday night with temperatures likely rising overnight into the 20s.
High pressure stationary over the west coast blocking any systems from the Pacific to move on shore.
/issued 345 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper trough exiting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Further west, a highly-amplified ridge has developed over the western CONUS. Once the upper trough moves further east, dry, NW flow aloft will set in over the region, and dictate the wx into the extended. Over the next 36 hrs, models develop a cut-off low in the Pacific that is forecast to move east to Baja and undercut the ridge by 00Z Tue, but this looks to have little effect on things closer to home. Otherwise, w/the exiting trough goes the stratus/fog, allowing full insolation to get temps back to above-normal by Sat.
This could lead to slick roads as blowing or drifting snow may stick to the road surface with near freezing surface temperatures, followed by sub-freezing temperatures this evening and tonight. The biggest threat would be across the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley where temperatures will be the coolest today in the lower 30s so that the snow does not become too sticky to become resistant to blowing or drifting.
Snow showers are likely with a reinforcing cold front Saturday night. Otherwise, forecast is on track with dry conditions expected today under high pressure. Troughing will be the dominant feature through the period. Eastward movement of the surface cold front, and its associated deepening upper level trough, has slowed in the latest model runs. Timing will be predicated on the deep upper trough, which looks to reach western PA shortly after midnight.
A mid-level trough axis will sweep through the area with dry air and clearing skies tonight. Temperatures will drop to near freezing in a few locations with patchy frost being possible. Sleet has continued off and on with light rain here at NWS Brownsville, but a changeover might come soon as the low- levels continue to cool. A 500mb trough is located to the west of our area with an upper level 80 to 90 knot jet streak overhead providing substantial lift across the area. When the trough axis moves through the area later this afternoon, precipitation chances will quickly drop off with skies clearing from west to east this evening. Clear skies and lightening winds may drop temperatures to near freezing in a few spots, but confidence is low on issuing a Freeze Warning at this point.
Snow showers are likely with a reinforcing cold front Saturday night. High pressure will result in dry but cool conditions today. Troughing will be the dominant feature through the period. Eastward movement of the surface cold front, and its associated deepening upper level trough, has slowed in the latest model runs. Timing will be predicated on the deep upper trough, which looks to reach western PA shortly after midnight.
A cold front will shift surface winds to the northwest and cold advection behind the wave will create some higher winds in the 18Z to 03Z timeframe. Colder overnight lows in the low teens to around ten in eastern North Dakota.
This would likely be confined to bridges, overpasses, and secondary roads. Deterministic NWP output predict strong subsidence during the afternoon as the upper trough axis moves east. Cold conditions expected tonight with readings near freezing. Warmer Saturday owing to air mass modification (increasing 100-500mb thickness values.
954 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure and dry conditions will be present today into tonight. An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the region on Saturday bringing snow to the area.
We will watch this ridge axis slowly slide south during the day today as another frontal system moves southeast toward the area. On Saturday morning, the best chances to see some snowflakes will be in our eastern half as the cold front moves through (i. But given the depth of the low level moisture and very steep low level lapse rates, wouldn't be surprised to see flurries or even light snow showers just about anywhere Saturday morning. The low level moisture will move out of the region and push eastward Saturday afternoon and evening, leading to a decrease in cloudiness.
High clouds that were generally southeast of a KBBD-KMNZ-KSLR line at 1130z will continue to move away as the base of an upper level trough moves eastward. /Issued 359 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ /Today and Tonight/ High clouds that were southeast of a Comanche to Bonham line at 3 AM will move out of the forecast area by mid morning as the base of an upper level trough moves eastward.
Deterministic NWP output predict strong subsidence during the afternoon as the upper trough axis moves east. Cold conditions expected tonight with readings near freezing. Warmer Saturday owing to air mass modification (increasing 100-500mb thickness values.
Have removed any mention for additional precipitation for the day with the best forcing in association with the upper level trough expected to remain to our south and east through the remainder of the day. With the passage of the trough, we should continue seeing the cloud cover move south and east through our region as well with our southeast parishes obviously the last to clear. Freezing level is close to the ground and only moisture is in the mid deck for possible icing.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: High magnitude upper ridge currently covers the Pacific Coast and Western North America as far north as the Yukon. This ridge is expected to expand east into Montana today and Saturday with continued warm and dry weather. A large upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast during the entire period. There will be a deep upper trough to the east with Montana in varying degrees of NW flow aloft.
All of this is occurring in the warm advection/isentropic ascent regime in advance of the longwave trough dropping through the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. The trough will become more meridional this morning as it pivots on its trek through the region.
/issued 437 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The upper trough that brought precipitation to the area the past couple of days will continue to move off to the east today, with north to northwesterly flow aloft prevailing through tonight. Temperatures will be warmer but still below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s. Tonight will be clear and not as cold, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 30s, although a few readings in the upper 20s will be possible along the I-10 corridor.
Less traveled roadways may continue to see patches of ice through daybreak especially around bridges. While the Freeze Warning remains in effect for the majority of South Central TX the elevated canopy could lead to some Srn counties failing to reach freezing mark, and another Freeze Warning notice may be needed when the next cold air mass arrives. As the base of the deep upper trough moves across TX, a light warming west surface wind will develop today, removing any remnant ice that hasn't collected into piles. A full day of sun and warming min temps to start with Saturday morning should lead to most areas reaching into the low to mid 60s despite a deep layer of cold air advection.
310 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 North-Northeast flow aloft will prevail today around the upper level ridge over western North America. Localized gusts close to 60 mph will be possible over downslope favored area along the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. Large blocking ridge pattern will remain the dominate weather maker across the western CONUS for the foreseeable future. Colorado on the east side of this ridge will also remain under a moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft.
Regarding temperatures, project that maximum temperatures this afternoon over eastern locations will run some 15F to 20F degrees warmer than readings noted yesterday, while western sections should experience afternoon temperatures generally some 8F to 16F degrees warmer. A dominant ridge will remain along the west coast of the CONUS while a trough will be over the midwest. A modest short wave is forecast to move through the ridge around midweek (GFS and EC show this although there are timing differences) and this will cool temps during this time period, and may bring a snow shower or two to the high country.
The pattern will favor upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley with strong upper ridging over the western CONUS. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area overnight tonight with modest CAA in behind the front keeping temperatures in the 30s on Saturday.
601 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will track northward off the east coast late tonight and Saturday.
Weather pattern through the period will be defined mainly by upper trofiness over the eastern CONUS, which will maintain a generally chilly and somewhat unsettled regime over the Ohio Valley. Temps won't really bottom out any night as a westerly sfc gradient persists between a ridge along the Gulf Coast and the parade of lows swinging through the Great Lakes.
this morning, with a large ridge out west and a trough moving through the central part of the country. A strong jet structure ahead of the trough will promote a favorable shear environment for bowing segments and short- lived supercells, with the main concerns being damaging wind gusts and possibly an isolated tornado. Mainly IFR/LIFR cigs and some MVFR vsbys continue to prevail across all sites this morning ahead of a cold front, although most recent obs are showing some improvement, mainly from KSRQ southward. A cold front will slowly move through the region today through Saturday morning, with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms expected.
Sleet has continued off and on with light rain here at NWS Brownsville, but a changeover might come soon as the low- levels continue to cool. A 500mb trough is located to the west of our area with an upper level 80 to 90 knot jet streak overhead providing substantial lift across the area. When the trough axis moves through the area later this afternoon, precipitation chances will quickly drop off with skies clearing from west to east this evening. Clear skies and lightening winds may drop temperatures to near freezing in a few spots, but confidence is low on issuing a Freeze Warning at this point.
A broad trough stretches over the eastern CONUS and into Texas, while a high-amplitude ridge builds over the west coast.
A brief ridge of high pressure will build in this evening through Saturday afternoon, allowing for some breaks in the clouds to kick off the weekend. Overnight tonight, a brief ridge of high pressure will build over the area and allow cloud cover to decrease. Saturday will be slightly warmer than Friday as a relatively warmer air mass is advected northward. Cloud cover will increase again from east to west Saturday as a low pressure system moves northeastward off the Atlantic Coast.