Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s, with some areas of upper 20s possible in typical cool spots. A couple hours of sub-freezing temperatures across the eastern Bluegrass region may even result in a freeze. Afternoon highs will therefore be several degrees warmer than today, reaching into the lower to mid 60s for most locations.
The cold frontal passage will preclude any fog formation overnight. The cold front is making steady progress across the forecast area this morning and is delineated by the by a narrow band of clouds and a more northerly wind shift. At 14 UTC, the front stretched from near the Walton/Bay County line northeast to near Marianna and Bainbridge to Tifton. An upper level trough axis will pass over the region today with zonal flow in its wake tonight. A drier and cooler air mass will arrive behind the cold front.
This should only allow for lows tonight to fall into the lower to upper 50s despite dewpoints in the 30s and 40s and winds becoming light overnight.
The surface cold front has pushed through the area this morning and is now well offshore. Dewpoints have dropped into the low 50s and are expected to continue to fall into the 40s by this afternoon or evening. A few clouds will linger through the morning until the subsidence from the building mid-level ridge really cranks in this afternoon and evening and any lingering moisture gets advected out of the area. With an overall dry airmass and low level cold advection tonight, we will probably see our coldest temperatures of the fall with some locations north of highway 84 dropping into the low 40s (If you're lucky/unlucky you might see a 39 mix in). VFR conditions have developed in the wake of a cold front and should continue through the forecast period.
237 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Frost is likely again tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s.
However, due to the amount of dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, am not expecting much in the way of accumulations. A strong cold front will dive across our area Saturday, with FROPA expected to occur in the mid to late afternoon. Thus, given the strength of this front, have quite the spread in afternoon temperatures, as highs behind the front hover in the low/mid 50s, while highs ahead of the front reside in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Seasonably cool day expected as high pressure begins to slide east.
Fall conditions will persist over the next 24 hours or so as the early morning cold front has now cleared the area. Cloud cover, winds, and a few sprinkles have made it feel that much cooler when compared to yesterday. We are expecting to clear overnight with calming winds, so many spots will be squarely in the 30s by morning, with the metro areas remaining in the lower 40s.
1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Pattern change in store this weekend as a massive ridge will build into the eastern Pac forcing a large pocket of arctic air south into the CONUS. This will allow for warmer temps, perhaps the warmest day in the next 7 days or more. However, the track of this system has shifted south some given the location of the upper jet and sfc front, with slightly cooler highs that previous model runs have suggested. Strong cold front will advect through the region Sat morning, with strong convergence supporting a decent chance for rain and snow with some accums expected Sat night across the SW 2/3 of the FA.
The large-scale 500mb trough continues to progress into the eastern half of the CONUS. Even so, the stronger winds during most of the day will usher in warmer air bringing highs to the low to mid 70s ahead of the front.
306 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Despite sunny skies this afternoon, the upper-level trough in the midwest has kept high temperatures limited to near to just above 60. This trough will move out to the east by tonight with a more zonal flow returning for Saturday. A low pressure system in the upper plains tomorrow, along with high pressure in the Appalachians, will result in a tight pressure gradient in the northwestern half of the Quad State generating strong southerly winds across the Quad State.
A clear sky, light wind, and low surface dew points has resulted in frost and near freezing temperatures across parts of our area early this morning.
The cooler temperatures today will yield to warmer temperatures, as winds, from the south, return overnight. Lows tonight will still remain cooler than normal; but, highs on Saturday will be warmer than normal, with gusty winds, from the south.
While surface cold front has cleared the area, a narrow band of anafrontal light rain continues in its wake mainly over southern MS at the moment. /GG/ Prior discussion below: A cold front has made its way through the ArkLaMiss region this morning. In its wake, cooler air is moving into the region. Temperature this morning are in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations, expect the Delta which has dropped into the lower 50s. Overnight lows will be cool in the lower to mid 40s, though some upper 30s in the northeast won't be out of the question.
Temperatures tonight will plummet into the lower 40s with parts of west Tennessee and northern Mississippi getting down the low to mid 30s. /issued 351 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ The synoptic pattern doesn't look to change much over the next several days as the Rex Block off the west coast will persist with a broad trough prevailing over the central/eastern CONUS.
Although freezing rain is not expected, it cannot be ruled out in this warmer area. Breezy winds behind the mentioned cold front will bring some areas of blowing snow, especially to areas with recent snowfall accumulations.
A strong southwesterly low-level jet develops ahead of the trough this evening and veers more to the west/northwest late tonight as the trough advances eastward. The better mixing tonight will keep temperatures up with lows remaining above the freezing mark in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A cold front will be surging southward across MT and ND Saturday morning. Highs should reach at least into the lower 70s across far southwest Nebraska where the frontal arrival will be later in the afternoon. Cooler lower to mid 50s across northwest/northern Nebraska where the front arrives earlier.
First wave of low pressure was moving through the area presently with scattered showers/graupel showers now mainly confined east of the Mississippi River. Could see quite a north to south contrast in temperatures for Saturday with highs in the upper 40s/near 50 across north central WI, to the lower/mid 60s south of I-90 in the warm sector of the low.
High pressure settling in behind yesterday's cold front is currently centered over Oklahoma with ridging nosing down into the CWA.
This trend will continue for the next several days as the synoptic scale features (high to the southwest, broad trough across much of the U.
New convective development will likely take place in the mesoscale, with the areas of most frequent boundary collisions propagating south of the cold frontal zone over the southeast Gulf. While lightning and heavy downpours with the slow movement the primary threats, the high CAPE environment may lead to a few highly localized wind gusts, perhaps as mainland convection produces more substational outflow toward the southwest. Through the weekend, deep layer high pressure to the north with an increasing pressure gradient will bring breezy northeast to east winds with moisture mainly 700 mb and below. Through mid to late week in the medium range, high pressure will dominate to the north with lowering pressures in the western Carribean, resulting in breezy to windy conditions.
Locations that have experienced sun have experienced a nice warmup into the lower 70s this aftn, while temps have more or less remained steady in the upper 50s/around 60 where clouds have persisted. That said, the coolest temperatures of the season are still expected overnight, with lows ranging from the middle 40s acrs cntl LA, to the lower/middle 50s along the I-10 corridor (about 5 to 10 degrees below normal). Despite this, pleasant conditions are expected, with a gradual increase in clouds from west to east, light winds and mild temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
/GG/ While surface cold front has cleared the area, a narrow band of anafrontal light rain continues in its wake mainly over southern MS at the moment. /GG/ Prior discussion below: A cold front has made its way through the ArkLaMiss region this morning. In its wake, cooler air is moving into the region. Temperature this morning are in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations, expect the Delta which has dropped into the lower 50s. Overnight lows will be cool in the lower to mid 40s, though some upper 30s in the northeast won't be out of the question.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): A cold front has pushed through the area leaving cooler and dropping temperatures in its wake. Temperatures will remain cool overnight falling into the low 60s with some spotty upper 50s throughout the CWA. Tonight into Saturday, high pressure begins to builds east of the area which will quickly switch our current northerly winds back to the southeast on Saturday and allow for warming temperatures, though we will continue to remain slightly below normal.
All sites will be VFR this afternoon through tonight as high pressure builds in. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 41 66 46 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 39 64 42 70 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 38 64 41 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 34 62 38 67 / 30 0 0 0 0 TN.
Gusty south winds, warmer temperatures, and low humidity values Saturday will result in an elevated fire danger Saturday, especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
This is part of our larger ridge of high pressure offshore. This will bring somewhat cooler high temperatures and increased cloud cover to southern Oregon (areas of northern California will mostly be unaffected).
/issued 626 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ Its a spectacular day outside, take my word for it and go out there! Current temperatures are in the the lower 60s with clear skies. The big story tonight is the low temperatures. Temperatures tonight will plummet into the lower 40s with parts of west Tennessee and northern Mississippi getting down the low to mid 30s. Highs will be in the lower 60s and skies will be mostly clear.
Thanks to yesterday's cold front passage, today's temperatures were in the cooler mid 50s to lower 60s under sunny skies. Dry high pressure will continue to move into Middle Tennessee tonight with clear skies. Some parts of the Upper Cumberland could touch freezing by daybreak, but any freeze will be very brief, so we do not think a freeze warning is needed.
733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A shallow cold front will push across the area tonight and early Saturday stalling across south Florida and the Florida straits later in the day. in fact the U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Little change in temperatures as highs will remain in the low to mid 80s north.
Low pressure system is forecast to swing through the Dakotas overnight and Saturday morning, slamming a cold front into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa during the day.
Clear skies and light winds as high pressure settling over Kentucky and Tennessee this evening.
1032 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a long-wave trough pivoting east through the eastern United States. A cold front is across north-central Florida, and high pressure is spilling east- southeast through the Mississippi River Valley. Also, boaters should lower biminis and antennae, and approach fixed bridges at the safest navigable speed, noting that clearance beneath bridges will be reduced. A frontal boundary will slide southeastward and pass through the Florida Keys coastal waters late tonight, as an expansive high pressure ridge builds into the eastern third of the United States.
Gusty east-northeast ridgetop winds will diminish during the next 24 hours. A large upper ridge was located over the NERN PAC during Friday afternoon. South of the ridge, a cut off low was drifting north offshore from Baja California, while northwesterly flow aloft was positioned over coastal WA, OR, and NRN CA. Low- level offshore winds are forecast to subside during the next 24 hours, which will lead to slightly cooler high temperatures during the weekend. Otherwise, ensemble forecast guidance indicates upper ridging will persist over the NERN PAC during the next seven days, which will favor dry weather over NWRN CA during the foreseeable future.
The only notable change to the current forecast period was increasing cloud cover a bit due to the high clouds. After midnight, a low level jet will begin to develop over eastern Oklahoma as high pressure moves farther east. Gusty south winds, warmer temperatures, and low humidity values Saturday will result in an elevated fire danger Saturday, especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
A cool, dry air mass will settle into the region this evening and overnight as high pressure continues to build into the Tennessee Valley from the northwest.
High pressure over the SE will build over the area Saturday and increase the NE wind flow 12-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots at coastal terminals.
512 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Fast northwest flow continues between a upper trough over the MS Valley and upper ridge over the eastern Pacific.
/issued 309 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ Its a spectacular day outside, take my word for it and go out there! Current temperatures are in the the lower 60s with clear skies. The big story tonight is the low temperatures. Temperatures tonight will plummet into the lower 40s with parts of west Tennessee and northern Mississippi getting down the low to mid 30s. Highs will be in the lower 60s and skies will be mostly clear.
733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A cold front will push east of the area tonight, with cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. This is ahead of & associated with the deep 500 hPa trough pivoting across the OH Valley. This should keep fog out of the picture, and allow us to fall into the low 50s for most of the region, and upper 40s in the north! A strong low level jet tonight will help to keep the fog at bay, but I don't think it'll be strong enough to require a Lake Wind Advisory at Lake Marion. High pressure will be building into the region behind the exiting cold front. Cooler and much drier air will push into the forecast area through the weekend.
Temperatures are falling into the lower to middle 40s in southern TN and middle to upper 40s outside urban areas in north AL.
Short wave trough passing by to our north tonight with middle and high clouds. Clearing, cooler, and breezy Saturday. Northwest flow aloft will continue at least another week as the main upper ridge stays over the eastern Pacific. Latest GFS carves a cold trough over our area next Friday, much different from the ECM which continues mild weather in our area.
757 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Frost is likely again tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across southeast Arizona through the coming work week.
Temperatures underneath the stream of clouds are a bit cooler than anticipated for this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s in El Paso County to mid 50s in Pueblo County as of 2 pm. Areas under thin or no cloud cover have reached the lower to mid 60s across the lower elevations. A cold front is then anticipated to begin moving through the plains late tomorrow afternoon into early tomorrow evening. As far as temperatures go, lows tonight are expected to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the plains and mid 20s to mid 30s in the high valleys. Highs tomorrow are anticipated to be around 80 across the plains and around 70 in the high valleys.
540 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Despite sunny skies this afternoon, the upper-level trough in the midwest has kept high temperatures limited to near to just above 60. This trough will move out to the east by tonight with a more zonal flow returning for Saturday. A low pressure system in the upper plains tomorrow, along with high pressure in the Appalachians, will result in a tight pressure gradient in the northwestern half of the Quad State generating strong southerly winds across the Quad State.
An amplified low-level thermal ridge will extend s from the low resulting in a rapid warm-up across the area today with widespread U80s-L90s. A cold front will start to slowly move s Sun AM as an 80kt 5h jet moves into/thru the base of broad mid-level trof in the central plains. We will have to watch as Thur could be warmer than advertised (just ahead of cold front). Cooler and breezy Fri, still dry.
Strong upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific centered near 140W is maintaining an unseasonably warm airmass over our area with afternoon highs expected to be 12-15 DEG F above seasonal averages today and again on Sunday.
Much warmer today within this strong southerly flow. Low level moisture will continue to increase tonight as a lee low moves SE across the TX panhandle and a cold front moves into northern OK around 09Z.
Temperatures have been slowly falling into the low to mid 30s. As colder air filters in behind a cold front tonight, this will lead to a swath of accumulating snow across portions of northern Valley, Daniels, and Sheridan Counties. As the cold front moves south through the area tonight, northerly winds will ramp up behind the front with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible for a couple hour period. High pressure will bring dry and colder weather to most of the region on Saturday and Saturday Night. Light snow will linger in parts of the southwest which will be on the northeast fringes of the moisture from the cold front which will be over southern and SW Montana.
217 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. By later in the afternoon, winds will decrease as the center of the high shifts closer to the area with winds becoming light by tonight. High pressure will be building into the region behind the exiting cold front. Cooler and much drier air will push into the forecast area through the weekend. May see some moderation in temperatures through the day, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Attention will turn to a shallow cold front that presently is surging into the northern plains.
1123 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Following a stretch of mild autumn days, expect a much cooler and damp end to the week with frost/freeze possible over most of Central PA Saturday morning, and perhaps again Sunday morning.
With a tightening surface gradient, strong cold air advection behind the trough, and momentum transfer winds of 25 to 30 kts, it will be a breezy afternoon. The cold front will drive well to our south tonight - all the way to KS and MO by later tonight. With colder air driving southward lows will fall into the lower to mid 20s from the Interstate 90 corridor and northward, while near 30 will be more common through the MO River into northwest IA. Look for highs in the lower to mid 40s.
Cold front has moved to the south of the forecast area early this morning. Light snow will linger in parts of the southwest especially Petroleum County which will be on the northeast fringes of the moisture from the cold front which will be over southern and SW Montana. High pressure will build into NE Montana today and tonight with dry and cold weather along with some clearing.
258 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict a broad trough covering much of the upper half of the US. As this low moves eastward, a strong cold front will quickly drop through the forecast area this morning. Additionally, expect a period of near-wind advisory criteria winds by mid-morning into the early afternoon behind the cold front. Ongoing rain and snow showers will continue today, with rain changing to snow as the colder air filters in behind the cold front. This transition to all snow will occur relatively early this morning across the higher terrain of the Black Hills and NE WY.
In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or slight ridging will be over the region today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure is over the Southeast. Winds will decrease by mid to late afternoon as the pressure gradient loosens around the high.
Winds through the rest of the morning will gradually subside as temperatures fall closer to freezing. Meanwhile rain will persist for much of the area through Sunday as the cold front associated with this system moves through.
First wave of low pressure was moving through the area presently with scattered showers/graupel showers now mainly confined east of the Mississippi River. Could see quite a north to south contrast in temperatures for Saturday with highs in the upper 40s/near 50 across north central WI, to the lower/mid 60s south of I-90 in the warm sector of the low. Another mid-level wave of low pressure moves out of the Northern Rockies Saturday night, rippling just south of the area after midnight/early Sunday morning. Several waves of low pressure look to impact the area. South to southeasterly winds to start the TAF period will veer southwest by midday, then shift to the northwest in the afternoon as a cold front drops through.
A cold front will move through the area this afternoon. An upper level low pressure system spinning over southern Hudson Bay will bring in multiple short waves with enough energy to produce occasional rain and snow chances throughout the first half of the week. The flow aloft becomes nearly zonal by mid week as the low moves off to the east.
Main thing to start is the low level wind shear which the radar is currently picking up around 50-55 knots from the southwest at about 1000 ft AGL.
A broad upper level trough continues to progress eastward across the eastern CONUS this evening. Overnight lows still look on track to range in the lower to mid 40s inland to the upper 40s to mid 50s closer to the coast. Highs on Saturday remain fairly cool with the surface ridging still in place and readings should range in the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday with the return flow.
Southerly flow in the low-levels remains intact tonight. Low temperatures tonight will also be warmer and more uniform, with most areas dropping into the lower 60s to near 70. Highs will be much warmer on Sunday, with mid 80s to lower 90s in store.
Conditions will gradually improve late Saturday morning and early afternoon as the weak boundary moves north as a warm front.
105 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Frost is likely again tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Northwest flow will continue across the PNW as a broad trough is dominating the weather pattern across eastern CONUS. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer today along with higher RH, so bumped up forecast lows and RH values overnight to account for the additional atmospheric moisture that should inhibit radiational cooling. Saturday highs will be slightly cooler on account of the added atmospheric moisture as well. Highs will drop back into the low-60s with high sin the low-40s on Sunday, as drier conditions return heading into the workweek.
High pressure settling in behind yesterday's cold front is currently centered over Oklahoma with ridging nosing down into the CWA. An upper level trough moving across the northern U. , well to our north, will push a weak cold front into West Texas and eastern New Mexico Sunday night.
359 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 The general synoptic scale pattern over the next ten days will feature upper level troughing over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Dry cold fronts will occasionally move southward on the back side of the trough, and bring cooler air into western Kansas.
446 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. By later in the afternoon, winds will decrease as the center of the high shifts closer to the area with winds becoming light by tonight. Models indicate southwest flow aloft with a broad upper trough across the northern two-thirds of the conus and upper ridging building across the Southeastern States.