Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Not expecting the flurries to last long, as some mid level drying will occur just ahead of dry cold front expected to move southeast across the area by this afternoon. Cold advection with the northwest flow will lead to cooler temperatures on Tue, mainly back closer to seasonal normals. Ketcham Another dry cold front looks to move south on Thu, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day on Thu as well. Stout and gusty northwest winds will spread southeast across the region today behind a cold front approaching from the northwest. A dry cold front will push south across the area for this afternoon hours.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): An elongated 500 mb trough now located over the eastern portion of the lower 48 states will exit eastwards. A series of 500 mb troughs will dig southwards along the West Coast of the U. An asociated cold front will edge into the South Central Plains States and central TX throughout Tues. Since this cold front is oriented relatively parallel to the 500 mb flow pattern, it is not expected to push through the RGV through Tues Night.
A UL trof will move across the state today. A sfc front will be ushered in association with this trof. The combination of the slightly warmer temperatures, slightly lower RH's, and breezy winds will lead to limited to perhaps elevated fire weather conditions across the FA today. We will see a smattering of mid to high level clouds today as the mentioned UL trof pushes through. High pressure will build in from the north. A return to seasonal high are expected Tuesday as cool high pressure prevails. The fire weather threat will be a little lower tomorrow with the cooler highs and higher afternoon relative humidity.
Upper level pattern this morning was marked by a broad trough situated over the central and eastern CONUS. Guidance is fairly consistent in orienting the path of this low from the northwest through the southeast, generally avoiding the far southwest. Light snow may linger Tuesday morning in the cyclonic flow, but weak ridging should take over and shut off precipitation shortly after. Likely a bit cooler today under persistent cloud cover with highs ranging from 10 to 20 in the north central and east to around 30 in the west. A few degrees warmer can be expected on Tuesday, especially if clouds clear sufficiently quick enough.
Stronger winds are forecast to develop tonight and Tuesday as the second portion of the system drops south from the Great Basin across central California and deepens the developing closed low to the southwest of SoCal. Widespread gusts over 60 mph will be possible across the high Sierra, while gusts of 45-55 mph will be common over the western half of the Central Valley and adjacent foothills. Gusts over the northern Sierra foothills will be more localized to ridgetops and near canyons.
Enjoy it because a cold front arrives late this afternoon that will bring a return of colder temperatures tomorrow with highs dropping as much as 30 degrees from today. Meanwhile an upper level low will develop and drop south becoming stationary off the southwestern California coast.
Look for mainly dry weather on Tuesday with high pressure over the area.
540 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure will dominate through the day with south to southwest winds predominating. A cold front will move into the state tonight but precipitation will be lacking with the exception of the south where KLLQ could see rain. Today looks to be generally quiet with high pressure moving rather quickly along the Gulf Coast. Attendant cold front will just be getting into extreme northwest AR by the end of today. Rain amounts will average less than a quarter of an inch with the highest amounts over the far south. With the increase in cloud cover and precipitation chances in the forecast, temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than what will be seen on Monday but still average a degree or two above normal.
A weak upper level ridge will slide east across S TX today while an upper level long wave trough sags southeast across the southwestern U. The ridge aloft and the strengthening southerly winds will lead to partly cloudy skies, breezy winds and very warm temperatures across S TX this afternoon. The best chance will be across the northwest CWA due to a weak cold front moving across the Hill Country and an inverted trough developing across the western CWA.
527 AM MST Mon Jan 18 2021 A weather system and its cold front will move through the area today and depart tonight.
542 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 An upper level trough and weak surface boundary dropping south through the region today will produce morning snow showers across central and southern portions of the forecast area with some light accumulations likely. Overall progs for the day show this boundary slowly sagging south of the region by this afternoon leaving in its wake some light snow accumulations of a dusting to 2" in the lower elevations to perhaps 3-4" across the higher summits of Addison and Rutland counties. Highs today fall back to seasonal normals or slightly below north of the front in the low/mid 20s, and continue above normal in the low/mid 30s south.
Today looks to be generally quiet with high pressure moving rather quickly along the Gulf Coast. Attendant cold front will just be getting into extreme northwest AR by the end of today. Rain amounts will average less than a quarter of an inch with the highest amounts over the far south. With the increase in cloud cover and precipitation chances in the forecast, temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than what will be seen on Monday but still average a degree or two above normal.
1204 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 (Today and tonight) Southwest winds will pick up mid to late morning as a lee trough develops along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the mid and upper 60s the Big Country and lower 70s south. A cold front will move into the Big Country late afternoon after 4 PM and move through the rest of West Central Texas by midnight.
957 AM MST Mon Jan 18 2021 A weather system and its cold front will move through the area today and depart tonight.
242 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Light snow continues across the region this afternoon as weak low pressure tracks from northwest to southeast. Winds shift to the southwest Tuesday night and a drier, warmer air mass will move in.
Otherwise, expect a warmer mid December day. Low should remain well above freezing. /issued 557 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ Expect a nice day across the Mid South as high pressure rotates through the south. Sunny conditions will persist through the day but expect increasing clouds tonight as a cold front moves through the region late tonight into Tuesday.
A cool night is in store as well as temperatures drop into the low 20s. Periodic upticks in lake enhanced CAPE should allow for times of sputters and starts to this lake effect especially for a couple of hours after 00z tonight and then again during the afternoon Tuesday as a cold front slides south from MI into the area.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 54 35 51 37 / 10 20 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 49 32 46 33 / 10 10 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 33 50 31 46 32 / 10 10 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 45 29 40 27 / 10 20 10 10 30.
High pressure at the sfc is gradually moving ewd over the Gulf Coast states while NW flow aloft prevails over much of the region. Better moisture will continue to be ushered into the area on Tuesday, and cloud cover will continue to increase ahead of a cold front. This should limit temperatures from rising out of the lower 50s during the afternoon. Expect cloud cover to thin overnight in wake of the cold front, which will allow low temperatures to drop near freezing by the morning hours.
(This evening through Tuesday) Cold front located across central and southwestern Oklahoma this afternoon will continue to push southeast this afternoon and this evening. Abundant cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass will result in temperatures tomorrow afternoon several degrees cooler than today.
Clouds will begin increasing later this aftn and especially overnight, as a cold front approaches.
alternatively across the east side colder temperatures were added to the higher terrain, but most of the valley locations stayed roughly unchanged. Expect drying to be more pronounced at the ridges now that the dry air mass is wholly over the region. Offshore northeast winds are causing the air mass to dry out significantly today above the low- level inversion. The lower conditions are expected to mix out and become VFR by mid-afternoon. High pressure to the north and a thermal trough along the coast will bring gusty north winds today with widespread advisory conditions, except for gales in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco this morning. Long period west swell and steep to very steep wind waves will gradually subside tonight into Tuesday as the thermal trough weakens.
1223 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 A trough of low pressure will push east across the area this afternoon. One area of high pressure slides from the Gulf Coast States to the southeast coast today through Tuesday.
Patchy areas of valley fog are possible tonight into Tuesday as high pressure amplifies across the Northern Rockies.
354 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 Satellite-derived PW imagery shows significant drying spreading in from the northwest this afternoon, as the tail end of a longwave trough pushes further and further off the Southeast U. 500 mb heights will continue to rise over the Keys through Tuesday evening, as a strong upper high currently northeast of Puerto Rico retrogrades west across the Greater Antilles.
1102 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure will build south of the region this afternoon into Tuesday while low pressure remains over the eastern Great Lakes through mid week.
Upper trough over the eastern CONUS with subtle features drifting down out of Canada through Tuesday, with the first of such features overhead, a second just upstream and a third that will dip into the eastern CWA early Tuesday.
313 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week.
North winds prevail with the recent passing of the cold front and remain from the north through the period.
335 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico nosing poleward toward the Ohio Valley. This will bring a warm front northward and some isentropic assent is noted with decent 850mb jet of 40 to 45 knots leading to some light precipitation late tonight into early Tuesday. Right now it would not appear freezing rain would be an issue, but this will have to be watched closely in terms of potential clearing and timing of the precipitation. By Tuesday, this low pressure and cold front will move across the area through the day and into the evening.
An upstream weak trough embedded within the northwest (split) flow aloft will bring another minimal chance for falling snowflakes across far northern Missouri, more into Iowa, but again this should be an inconsequential batch of light snow, with little to no accumulation.
1211 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 Dry high pressure will build into the area through Tuesday.
Stratus currently across N TX will continue to stream northward in advance of cold front.
Not expecting the flurries to last long, as some mid level drying will occur just ahead of dry cold front expected to move southeast across the area by this afternoon. Cold advection with the northwest flow will lead to cooler temperatures on Tue, mainly back closer to seasonal normals. Ketcham Another dry cold front looks to move south on Thu, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day on Thu as well. Ketcham A cold front is moving through the state from northeast to southeast this afternoon. A dry cold front will push south across the area for this afternoon hours.
Areas along the Nature Coast will likely experience temperatures blow freezing, and a freezing warning is in effect for tonight through early Tuesday. Elsewhere, lows will range from the low 40s to 50s (especially near the coast). As high pressure ridge continues to build temperatures will gradually warm through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
340 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure builds in through Tuesday.
Temperatures have soared into the lower to mid 70s across most of the area this afternoon. A cold front is currently working its way into the northern Big Country as of the 2 PM hour. Winds have shifted out of the north at Haskell and Weinert, with temperatures in the lower 60s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) By Tuesday night, a upper level closed low currently off the southern coast of California, will begin turning east, and head toward the northern Mexico coast. We will remain cloudy, but may see a slight lull in precipitation as well Tuesday night, and lows will vary from the lower 30s along and north of I-20 to near 40 along I- 10.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 34 54 35 51 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 31 49 32 46 / 10 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 44 33 50 31 46 / 10 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 28 45 29 40 / 40 10 10 10 10.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure over south-central Lake Superior and a cold front that extended southwest from the low through central/southwest WI. Another weak low pressure was situated over north-central SD. A cooler air mass to have settled over northeast WI behind the cold front.
1134 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Summary: A cold front will continue moving out of the Northland today with lingering snow showers and flurries through the day. The lows associated cold front has been sweeping across the Northland in the overnight hours helping to provide lift for some bands of snowfall. As the day progresses this band of snow and cold front will exit to the east with cold northwesterly flow remaining over the region.
135 PM MST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure builds into the region tonight for drier conditions with any lingering snow over the central and southwest Montana mountains ending this evening.
Temperatures have risen well into the 60's with 70's along and south of I-20! A strong cold front is already beginning to move into the area and is currently along a Carlsbad to Odessa to Snyder line. Meanwhile, an upper low will develop and dig to our west setting up over the Baja through midweek.
Stronger height falls commence Tuesday night as an upper wave of arctic origin dives into the mean trough.
High pressure will persist through the TAF period with VFR conditions. High pressure should begin to build in as the cold front exits the region, with quiet weather for the day and gradually clearing skies. Winds will turn more onshore by Tuesday allowing temperatures to moderate by a few degrees with highs in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure centered across the FL peninsula and mid-level ridging anchored over the eastern Gulf will work in concert to keep dry and pleasant weather in place for the remainder of the week. Daytime highs will be in the 70s across South Florida for the start of the week and warm to the lower 80s by late week.
Southerly winds today will increase to 8-13 knots, but then slacken after sunset to 4-6 knots before turning to the NE early Tuesday as a cold front approaches.
Overnight lows will be a little cooler than previous nights, with lows in the teens. Highs tomorrow will only be in the low 20s, as a lobe of cooler air aloft rotates through the area.
The increasing moisture then spreads east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast as the moisture rises into the more zonal mid and upper levels. For today, have bumped temperatures up a few degrees mainly over areas south of the highway 84 corridor, with this portion of the forecast seeing a more drier airmass. Highs ranging from the mid 50s along and north of the Highway 84 corridor to around 60 southVFR conditions expected through the forecast. Areas north of the Highway 84 corridor will see increasing mid/upper level clouds during the 12z-18z time frame Tuesday. Areas north of the Highway 84 corridor will see increasing mid/upper level clouds during the 12z-18z time frame Tuesday.
Behind this boundary and a weak passing upper trough axis, dry conditions will occur much of Tues through Wed. On Sun, deep trough moving out of the desert SW shifts our upper flow and deeper moisture returns to the picture, with showers breaking out during the day.
High pressure will build overhead from the west this afternoon, and remain overhead through Tuesday. With the high overhead, calm to light winds, with clear skies expected. Temperatures will fall to around freezing inland Tonight, with mid to upper 30s at the coast.
/issued 830 AM PST Mon Jan 18 2021/ Very quiet day today with high pressure and limited fog and stratus. Only made minor updates, mainly to temperatures where more sunshine may mean warmer highs this afternoon.
An upper level trough that brought a cold front through the area overnight is quickly moving off the southeast US while mostly zonal flow develops behind this feature into Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure is filtering into the region with winds expected to become nearly calm after sunset tonight. Clear skies and calm winds will allow cold temperatures tonight around/just below the freezing mark.
Synoptically, an upper level low is in the process of closing off near the southern California Coast. Updated the forecast to trend temperatures warmer both hourly and for the max forecast in downslope areas. Aviation concerns increase at the SLC terminal with the development of gusty easterly, downsloping winds and the formation of rotor clouds along the ridgetops around 06z.
This follows approximate track of the center of the low, exiting the area Tuesday morning. Could see some wrap around light snow linger through Tuesday morning, but it's a rather progressive low, and weak upper ridging moving in afterwards should help skies clear and snow chances end. Highs will be in the lower 20s north central and east, to the mid 30s southwest.
This has mostly been flurries, but there were reports of patchy freezing drizzle this morning.
245 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Zonal flow aloft will amplify slightly through Tuesday with short wave ridging developing overhead. The forecast area should remain dry with precip well to our northwest associated with a short wave trough over southern California and well to our southeast associated with a southern branch jet streak. Cooler air behind today's cold front combined with increased mid to high level cloud cover will help keep Tuesday's highs on the cool side ranging from the 40s to lower 50s. By late tomorrow night, the closed low off the Baja coast will have split from the Polar jet and begin to set its sights on our region. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the low quickly transitioning into an open wave.
/Updated at 1049 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ Busy short term forecast with high pressure firmly in control over much of the Southeast for today, but will quickly transition by tomorrow afternoon as a weak frontal boundary is expected to move across the state.
Latest surface analysis located our next weather system to be over eastern KS/western MO, with a warm front extending to the east, and a cold front draped to the southwest into Oklahoma. Isentropic lift over the warm front should provide a decent precip shield to the southern IN counties. Road sfc temps look to be right at freezing tonight and into tomorrow morning.
Cold front is currently entering north central Oklahoma and will continue to push southeast this afternoon and evening. As front moves into southeast Oklahoma this evening, expect scattered light showers to develop near the front under a modest zone of isentropic ascent near the low level jet axis. Cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday behind the front as the boundary stalls over the ArkLaTex region Tuesday morning.
A cold front will blow into the area during the late afternoon and evening with a gusty north wind. Enjoy it because a cold front arrives late this afternoon that will bring a return of colder temperatures tomorrow with highs dropping as much as 30 degrees from today. Meanwhile an upper level low will develop and drop south becoming stationary off the southwestern California coast.
830 AM PST Mon Jan 18 2021 Very quiet day today with high pressure and limited fog and stratus. Only made minor updates, mainly to temperatures where more sunshine may mean warmer highs this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a longwave trough axis is exiting off the U.
331 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure will build south of the region this afternoon into Tuesday while low pressure remains over the eastern Great Lakes through mid week.
Impacts will likely be limited to only brief visibility reduction or patchy slick spots as temperatures fall back below freezing tonight.
A little light snow has been falling at MCCall/ID this morning and will also occur in the Boise Mountains later today as a weak trough moves south there.
837 AM MST Mon Jan 18 2021 Radar imagery still showing some orographic snowfall ongoing across the high mountains passes this morning. The upstream low level air is warmer than what we had forecast and also has a bit more moisture. Since we're starting a little warmer and still expect some sun, we'll warm today's forecast highs a bit. On Tuesday, the upper low will drop southwestward off the coast of Baja CA. Over CO, a dry and weaker northwesterly flow aloft will be in place, with high pressure at the surface and aloft.
The 500mb pattern shows an exiting trough and the pattern going zonal over the area, with some weak ridging over the western Gulf. At the surface, high pressure is building, with the center just to the north. Tomorrow, the east flow around the high will bring a slightly warmer, moister flow over the area, probably allowing for some fair weather cumulus to form through the afternoon.
Ice growth zone does dry out prior to low level saturation ending so while some patchy freezing drizzle is possible on the backside, suspect lift in the low levels will also fade quickly.
Then, dry weather will take over under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures were currently well above freezing over this area and upstream obs were showing mostly rain occurring over south central Illinois and southwestern Indiana. Northern sections will drop to the lower 20s.
Radar continues to show light orographic snow showers over the higher mountain passes while even some very light snow and flurries have developed over the Front Range, northeast plains and Palmer Divide. For tonight, the upper trof begins to dig southwest and become a closed low across the Great Basin. By later tonight the upper low winds up all the way back into Southern Nevada with gradual drying and more subsidence moving from the north. The cutoff upper low should be far enough south of the area to limit any sensible impacts to the weather by Tuesday night. Lows will drop to the single digits over the high valleys, and in the teens to 20s for most of the plains.
A weather system digging down from the north is expected to result in cooler temperatures, occasional gusty winds, and a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers starting Tuesday and continuing into the weekend.
Weak cold front tomorrow. High pressure end of the week. High pressure is attempting to sneak in between the previous upper level trough that moved out of the area to the east and a disturbance approaching from the west tonight. The remainder of the lowlands may also receive a dusting of snow as this system moves through. A weak cold front moves in behind this system and will cross through the area tomorrow. Snow will likely transition to rain along the lowlands later Tuesday morning as this system moves out. Temperatures tonight will only be a few degrees cooler than highs were today, in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the lowlands and upper teens to lower 20s for the higher elevations. Highs tomorrow will be quite a bit warmer than today with temperatures around normal.