Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1026 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Currently - A mid latitude trough moving off the Atlantic coast and high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley combined with day time heating over Florida resulted a noticeable northwest wind surge that was strongest on our gulf side waters. This northwest flow is helping to push a very unusual late season cold front down the Florida Peninsula. Short Term Update - South Florida will continue to cool overnight as the mid latitude trough begins to swing out to see and the previously mentioned high builds eastwards towards Georgia. The late season cold front should be able to push southwards through the Keys. High pressure will build eastwards into the extreme southeastern United States.
High pressure stretched from central Canada into the Upper Midwest this afternoon as a cold front extended from an area of low pressure in northern lower Michigan back into central Illinois and the Central Plains.
712 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 (Today and tonight) It will be mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s as a lee trough continues to bring southerly winds, gusty at times. Highs will be in the lower 90s, except for upper 80s in eastern section from Brady to Brownwood to San Saba where there will be a few more clouds.
A long wave ridge off the west coast will move slowly east through the weekend.
temperatures aloft, from 850 MB upward will continue to lower overnight, and with the clearing there will be areas that drop below freezing in the Rogue, Applegate and Illinois valleys by early Saturday morning. East of the Cascades temperatures will be well below freezing tonight into Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure remains offshore with weak fronts slipping down the back of the ridge bringing very light showers to the northern fringes of the forecast area Saturday.
739 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Expect mostly clear skies with widespread frost as low temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s tonight.
1036 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 An upper level trough over the eastern states will shift east tonight. Dry high pressure will build across the area over the weekend.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. Breezy and cooler conditions told behind the cold front that moved through yesterday. There is a very slight chance that we could pop a shower over Mono-Mineral this afternoon, but as the trough axis moves out of the region, the threat will push further into central and eastern Nevada this evening. Temperatures may drop down to near or below freezing in the colder Sierra valleys Saturday morning. Temperatures in the western Nevada valleys should remain above freezing, but outlying/rural valleys could see temperatures near the freezing mark Saturday morning.
548 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021 The latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the high plains, with an upper low over the Pacific Northwest, creating southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area this afternoon. Enhanced lift due to an impulse rotating around the upper trough, is expected to develop some showers and thunderstorms in the area of greatest instability which will move into northeastern Wyoming this afternoon, shifting eastward into western South Dakota this evening, with relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing moisture in a region of enhanced 850-700mb theta-e advection tonight. As the upper low remains to the west of the forecast area, a dry slot may move into the region from the southwest on Saturday, keeping much of the rest of the area dry through at least Saturday morning.
625 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 An upper trof over the Pacific NW will dig into the northern Rockies tonight, thus crushing the ridge currently over the region.
818 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 An upper level trough over the eastern states will shift east tonight. Dry high pressure will build across the area over the weekend.
925 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 High pressure settling in over the area this evening, with clear skies. Have decreased temperatures tonight this update to better match current guidance, which is also supported by the low dewpoints currently being observed across the area. As of 9pm, interior sites are reporting dew points in the low to mid-40s, while the coastal areas remain in the 50s. High pressure overspreads the area pushing off the northeast FL coast by late in the day. A pleasant morning with cooler temperatures, afternoon maxes recovering into the U70s to around 80 at the coast and L-M80s further into the interior. High pressure building into the local area, with northerly winds around 10-15kts overnight.
809 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Thunderstorms have weakened and moved east of the terminals this evening, but additional shower activity is underway behind the responsible cold front. Showers clear out by 01Z this evening with wind soon flipping northwesterly behind the surface cold front. High amplitude troughing emanating south of a closed mid level circulation anchored over Hudson Bay will govern conditions over the 48 hours. Late day cold frontal passage capitalizing on the underlying diurnally enhanced steep lapse rate environment maintains a window for convective development over the next several hours /particularly eastern sections/ - instances of small hail or graupel and gusts to 40 mph still a possibility within stronger cells. The nocturnal timing may even allow for a few wet snowflakes overnight across the north as freezing levels continue to fall.
Today Through Sunday High pressure continues to control the weather for much of the CWA. Sunday appears to be the best chance for the highest POPs across the state with thunderstorms likely.
Simultaneously, our next chance of precipitation will be on the way out of the Intermountain West in the from of a trough and attendant frontal boundary that proceed eastward through the southern Great Plains.
High pressure in control across the Tennessee Valley with tranquil weather continuing tonight with a mostly clear sky and light winds. Skies will become partly cloudy by the afternoon, which will help temps warm into the lower to mid 70s. A weak trough will move into the Southern Plains on Saturday night, shifting a ridge eastward and through the area. The axis of this ridge is expected to be east of the area by daybreak, with flow aloft shifting to the west-southwest. While we do have slight chance and chance PoPs in the forecast during the day Sunday, the better chances of rain will come Sunday night as the cold front makes its way towards the area.
An upper trof over the Pacific NW will dig into the northern Rockies tonight, thus crushing the ridge currently over the region. Various CAM solutions suggest upwards of an inch or more rain is possible, right over the driest areas of NC SD! Some of the rain will linger into Saturday night, possible mixing with snow as temps dip into the low and mid 30s.
108 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 Two cold fronts will cross the region, one this evening and one overnight which will bring scattered rain and snow showers.
916 PM PDT Fri May 7 2021 Low pressure to the north will maintain onshore flow, with periods of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts this weekend.
355 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021 Upper ridge extending from Mexico up across TX and through the Central Plains to Canada this morning will give way to a trough extending from MT down through AZ. This trough swill swing across NM and W TX later today. After it passes a flat ridge will extend from CA to the East Coast.
A band of light radar returns that could be seen extending from Death Valley up across southern Nye and Lincoln counties this evening marked the leading edge of a weak cold front pushing into southern Nevada.
At 500 mb, a trough was moving through the Rockies with strongest 12 hour height falls noted in northern ID (around 100 meters). Water vapor loop early this morning showed mid level trough axis extending south from a weakly closed low over western MT down into southern CA. Recent runs of the RAP13 model suggest main low pressure center will drop into southwest KS with warm front reaching into the far southern parts of southeast NE by late afternoon.
Expect frosty mornings with much cooler temperatures as well, especially in the mountain valleys. Through Sunday night: A low pressure trough will continue its trek across the Inland Northwest into tonight. Some light snow across the higher mountains is also anticipated. With cold morning lows in the low to mid 30s for much of the region, some favored locations may experience some frost Saturday morning.
As the warm front continues northward into Kentucky overnight, expecting much warmer and humid conditions on Sunday.
Outside of the rain showers Saturday and Sunday, conditions look rather miserable with temperatures Saturday struggling to get into the lower 50s with only slight improvement for Sunday.
There will be some gratuity PoPs in place but even the chances on Saturday withe passage of the upper system and associated cold front don't seem to be as good as before. The upper trough and surface front are moving through eastern NV attm and really not much more than thin band of organized clouds. The GFS/GEFS have come around the ECMWF solution of the base of the trough tracking north of Utah and Colorado, no longer producing a cutoff low over the Four Corners.
118 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 A slow moving upper level trough of low pressure will bring showers to parts of northern New York tonight and Saturday while Vermont remains on the dry side. Eventually the upper trough moves east and the entire area could see some showers Saturday night into early Sunday.
Ridge that was over the plains will shift east late tonight into Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will in the upper 60s near Paris, TN to the low 80s in Marks, MS. The focus for storm development looks to the the accompanying cold front that will pass through Sunday evening.
Tonight through Saturday night This will be a transition day as the ridge that brought the dry weather continues to move to the east and a trough and Pacific cold front move into the area. Saturday will be a breezy and much cooler day, with high temperatures 20 to 30 degrees cooler than today. We can't rule it out, but given the cooler temperatures and the lack of surface instability we left it out for now.
And, the specific positioning of the warm front will be a major determinant in whether a surface-based, severe storm threat develops over southeast NE. Based on latest model data, a reasonable-worst-case scenario would be a more northern low track with the warm front moving into southeast NE. Forecast parameter space is supportive of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes in the vicinity of the warm front where moisture and low-level shear are maximized. Highs on Saturday will range from the 50s across the northern half of our area to mid 60s to around 70 near the KS border, depending on how far north the warm front makes it.
1234 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021 (Today and tonight) It will be mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s as a lee trough continues to bring southerly winds, gusty at times. Highs will be in the lower 90s, except for upper 80s in eastern section from Brady to Brownwood to San Saba where there will be a few more clouds.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021/ The passing of an upper level ridge axis this afternoon will signal a transition to southwesterly flow aloft in response to a trough axis emanating from a low across the BC west coast and extending toward Baja California. Lee troughing across eastern NM will continue to pull moisture into the region. A cold front will move through Saturday night, resulting highs 10 to 15 degrees cooler for Sunday than Saturday.
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over Wisconsin with ridging extending southeast to Central Indiana. A warm front was setting up over SE Kansas and SW MO. Water vapor imagery continues to show NW flow in place aloft due to a deep upper low over northern Ontario and ridging in place over the Rockies. Aloft the ridging and NW flow is expected to flatten. May need to include some low chc pops across the southwest as this evenings warm front begins to arrive at those locations a bit earlier. The models continue their consistent story of a warm front arriving from the southwest. associated with a low pressure system over Kansas. Forecast soundings also indicate a saturated column as the warm front arrives with pwats over 1.
300 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low across extreme west- central Montana early this morning. The associated cold front has pushed across the forecast area. Cold air advection will continue today as the trough and upper low continues to pull eastward. After 03Z, models are showing a mainly dry night across the entire area as some subsidence on the south side of the upper low pulls across the forecast area. This is expected to change during the day Sunday as the upper low pulls possibly across northeast Wyoming into the northern High Plains. A closed low situated over far western Montana has an associated trough extending southward across Idaho and clipping northwestern Wyoming.
405 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 A cold front will cross the area early today. Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight.
As warm front moves into the area expect rain to develop across the region. Least amount of confidence is southeastern portions of the forecast area across the lower Scioto Valley and into northern Kentucky as model trends have been hinting at a more northern solution with the precipitation. Temperatures will start to warm some later in the night as the warm front moves northward. Warm front will extend across the area will low pressure approaching the region at the beginning of the period. Looks like there is potential for a bit of a lull in precipitation towards midday but then increasing again in the afternoon as the low moves into the area. Precipitation will continue into the evening and then end fairly quickly as the low and frontal system move off to the east.
3) Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through much of the upcoming week. Discussion: The current synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by troughing across the eastern and western CONUS with mid level ridging across the High Plains. Late tonight (around midnight or so), as warm air advection and the low level jet increases, showers and perhaps even some thunderstorms are expected to develop along an axis extending from southeast Nebraska into southwestern Missouri and move eastward through the overnight hours. The daylight hours of Saturday should be dry, with highs ranging from the upper 70s across souther portions of the region to the mid 50s across northeast Missouri as a warm front looks to move into the region before stalling out somewhere near the Interstate 70 corridor.
211 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Colder air settles into the area this morning, with rain transitioning to snow slowly over some of the higher elevations today. A winter weather advisory remains in effect mainly for the higher elevation of Cascade, Judith Basin, and Meagher Counties for late this afternoon through Sunday morning.
A pleasant day expected as weak high pressure settles over the area. Very dry airmass remains in place so expect full sunshine and low humidity for most areas with max temps in the lower 80s coast and mid 80s interior. High pressure will continue to influence the Space Coast. Dry air will persist behind the high with plenty of sunshine expected. However, a weakness in the upper-level ridge over south Florida, will allow some moisture to advect into the southern portions of the County Warning Area.
324 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 An upper level trough will continue moving into the Atlantic as dry high pressure builds across the area through the weekend.
1056 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 A weak backdoor type cold front was dropping southward through northern MO and central IL this afternoon. Could not rule out a few light showers or at least sprinkles across southwest IL late this afternoon where there is slightly better instability on the backside of an upper level trough. More convection will develop along and north of I-70 by Saturday evening along and north of a warm front. Temperatures will be well below normal across northeast MO and west central IL north of the warm front Saturday and Saturday night. There is a potential for a few severe storms across southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of the cold front, although the magnitude of instability is still in question depending on the amount of cloud cover and convection during the morning.
Dry conditions continue this evening before rain chances increase early in the AM as moisture advection ramps up ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Canadien, EC, and GFS guidance (both ensemble and operational) have all trended slightly farther north with the low track to some degree over the past couple runs. 24 hour precipitation amounts are forecast to range between one and one and a half inches with the highest amounts centered along a SSW line running roughly from Coshocton-> Pittsburgh-> Indiana. Widespread precip will diminish to more scattered showers Sunday night the backside of the low.
Isolated mainly evening rain or snow showers possible and mtn obscurations north of a line from KBKE-KMYL as the upper trough slides over the region. An upper trough will track to our north as it moves from the PacNW and into the northern Rockies on Saturday. The trough is then expected to stall over Montana or possibly retrograde back into Idaho on Sunday.
357 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021 A small window of opportunity early this morning for 60+ MPH gusts near Arlington/Elk Mountain as the 700 hpa CAG-CPR gradient climbs to near 60 meters after 09z in advance of a surface cold front now moving into western Carbon County. Precipitation chances are likely to be on the up- tick again by Sunday night as a vigorous upper-level trough begins to dig south into the Great Basin.
643 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Synoptic Overview: An upper level low (presently situated in northern Idaho and far western Montana) will stall/cut-off over the northern Rockies tonight. Today: A developing lee cyclone in Colorado will track eastward through southwestern and central Kansas today. Guidance suggests that small amplitude waves rounding the base of the upper low (over the central Rockies) will aid in convective development along the CO Front Range and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. on the northwestern periphery of the aforementioned lee cyclone. as the MSLP/H85 height gradient tighten in response to abrupt pressure rises assoc/w a developing meso-high (to the north and west) and pressure falls attendant the advancing lee cyclone (to the south and east).
643 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will warm again today as the 850mb thermal ridge moves into our area and intensifies. 850mb temperatures will warm 3 to 4 degrees Celsius along the western border of our forecast area which should easily push temperatures into the lower 90s for most of the western half of the area.
Meanwhile, high pressure is settling in across the southeast U. Otherwise, high pressure over the southeast U. High pressure currently over the southeast U. As this high moves into the western Atlantic, expect breezes to freshen with additional nocturnal surges occurring, peaking Sunday night.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will warm again today as the 850mb thermal ridge moves into our area and intensifies. 850mb temperatures will warm 3 to 4 degrees Celsius along the western border of our forecast area which should easily push temperatures into the lower 90s for most of the western half of the area.
A cold front will move across the region between 00Z and 05Z, with gusty north winds in its wake. A cold front will move across the area this evening and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may clip the western OK Panhandle as the cold front tracks southward from eastern CO, and have maintained slight chc pops for Cimarron county this evening.
329 AM PDT Sat May 8 2021 Low pressure across the northern Rockies will maintain onshore flow with periods of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts this weekend.
The low level jet will precede the influx of boundary layer moisture and instability on Sunday, in advance of the approaching surface cold front. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain on track for Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly timed with the passage of the slow-moving surface cold front. Beyond Sunday, split upper flow will continue across the lower 48. As such, midweek PoPs have trended a bit lower, and mid to late week temps a bit cooler. By 19-21Z, winds will begin to increase from the south behind a departing warm front. Have added mention of low level wind shear at KMEM, KMKL, and KJBR during the late evening into the overnight hours as the low level jet begins to increase across the area.
/NF/ Today through Sunday Night: The flow aloft will become more zonal today as an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS breaks down. As the low pressure system's attendant cold front moves south into this increasingly unstable air mass, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. The moist and highly unstable air, the presence of a weak cold front sagging into the region, and southwesterly flow in the lower levels will increase the threat for training heavy rainfall and flash flooding into the night tomorrow.
649 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 An upper level trough will continue moving into the Atlantic as dry high pressure builds across the area through the weekend.
Mid-level ridging will be over the region today before flattening out by Sunday. At the surface, ridging shifts eastward today with low pressure deepening over the Texas panhandle. Sunday looks very similar to today with temperatures a couple of degrees warmer, especially west where a dry line will approach and possibly move into the Rio Grande Plains.
446 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Synoptic Overview: An upper level low (presently situated in northern Idaho and far western Montana) will stall/cut-off over the northern Rockies tonight. Today: A developing lee cyclone in Colorado will track eastward through southwestern and central Kansas today. Guidance suggests that small amplitude waves rounding the base of the upper low (over the central Rockies) will aid in convective development along the CO Front Range and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. on the northwestern periphery of the aforementioned lee cyclone. as the MSLP/H85 height gradient tighten in response to abrupt pressure rises assoc/w a developing meso-high (to the north and west) and pressure falls attendant the advancing lee cyclone (to the south and east).
The low level jet will precede the influx of boundary layer moisture and instability on Sunday, in advance of the approaching surface cold front. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain on track for Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly timed with the passage of the slow-moving surface cold front. Beyond Sunday, split upper flow will continue across the lower 48. As such, midweek PoPs have trended a bit lower, and mid to late week temps a bit cooler.
A cold front will move across the area this evening and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may clip the western OK Panhandle as the cold front tracks southward from eastern CO, and have maintained slight chc pops for Cimarron county this evening.
625 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021 Low pressure and the associated rain and thunderstorms continue to advance eastward off the Rockies and into central SD early this morning. As the ridge shifts south through today, expect thunderstorm activity to taper off. Temperatures will either hold steady or fall today as rain moves in, especially as the upper ridge moves south and caa takes hold. Long range will be dominated by cool and mostly dry conditions, as an upper high drifts nearby, before the remnant upper low eventually kicks eastwards with some potential for light showers.