Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1217 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Expect patchy mvfr fog and stratus into the morning hours, with isolated showers/storms as an upper level low continues to slowly retrograde toward the Arklatex region and several disturbances rotate around the periphery of it.
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 High pressure aloft will gradually build east from the Plains into the mid MS River and lower OH River Valleys during the short term. As the high pressure builds in with time, temperatures will likely tick up a degree or two each afternoon.
Upper level ridge continues to build east and become less amplified as a trough deepens over the PAC NW today. Warm temperatures above west central Neb will continue to cap the atmosphere through much of the day, though late this afternoon, moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will work on an advancing front to produce isolated thunderstorms over the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska. TD/s will rise back into the mid to upper 60s while the ridge promotes high temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Across our far east, we expect TD/s in the lower 70s.
Better rain chances are expected later this afternoon and into the evening with a crossing cold front.
228 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Skies were mostly clear across the tri-state region overnight, with RAP 500mb heights showing an area of high pressure extending south from central Nebraska through western Kansas and into northeastern Arizona. An upper level ridge spanning much of the Plains builds and peaks today. The ridge is anticipated to steer any storms around the region as the warm air aloft serves as a cap to prevent development.
123 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Typical summertime upper level ridging has become established across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the desert southwest. The exception is across the Northern Plains on the norther periphery of the ridging, where several thunderstorm complexes have dove southeast through the Mississippi Valley the last couple of days. In fact the ridge reaches it's peak Saturday, with highs approaching 100F for most areas. A cold front will slowly sag into northwest Nebraska Saturday night as the ridge weakens and begins to flatten slightly.
457 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front crossing the region later this afternoon and into the evening.
312 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A quiet, yet mild night around the region as high pressure begins building. Temps remain mild tonight, only falling back to the low 70s. The other question and concern for the overnight, is a weak vort max that will track along the eastern edge of the high pressure ridge.
an upper low will meander around Gulf States/Mississippi Valley area providing rather weak flow aloft over the Southern Appalachian Region.
115 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area Saturday.
Another hot and humid day is expected across the region today as warm moist air gets pulled northward into the region between a high pressure system to the east and low pressure to the west. The frontal boundary associated with the low to the west will slide across the CWA late this afternoon into tonight, and the big question will be whether or not convection will be able to develop under strong instability and somewhat decent shear, but under a still fairly strong capping inversion. May see some precipitation linger into Sunday morning, then high pressure settles in by the afternoon. Slightly cooler air moves in on Sunday, with highs in the 80s. Sunday night will still feature the 500mb ridge to our southeast, along with the surface cold front/trough.
526 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area today. Scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front this afternoon into this evening.
High temperatures will be into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s. An expansive upper level ridge extended from Mexico across the Central Plains and into the Midwest.
A quiet, yet mild night around the region as high pressure begins building. Temps remain mild tonight, only falling back to the low 70s. The other question and concern for the overnight, is a weak vort max that will track along the eastern edge of the high pressure ridge. Sunday will be a repeat of today, but with temps a couple degrees warmer.
Over the next couple of days, our weather regime will largely be dictated by the upper level low in the vicinity of the Arklatex Region. As the system retrogrades, disturbances will move up around the periphery of the low, and with high low level moisture in place, scattered showers/storms will continue to be a possibility through the short term.
750 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area today. Scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front this afternoon into this evening.
Upper level ridge continues to build east and become less amplified as a trough deepens over the PAC NW today. Warm temperatures above west central Neb will continue to cap the atmosphere through much of the day, though late this afternoon, moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will work on an advancing front to produce isolated thunderstorms over the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska. TD/s will rise back into the mid to upper 60s while the ridge promotes high temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Across our far east, we expect TD/s in the lower 70s. The front pushes through the CWA SAT night/Sunday leaving cooler post frontal conditions for the Sandhills and northwest Nebraska.
and Sunday Upper ridge will continue to build during the first part of the weekend before a couple waves flatten the ridge in classic ring- of-fire fashion.
The main upper low that is fairly stationary across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana will help to pump moisture into the area. With the counter-clockwise spin of the atmosphere thanks to the upper low, moisture will stream into the area form the Gulf of Mexico. Look for the highest chances to be in the southeast, but that will spread northwest through the day and into the evening hours. The weakening upper level low over Texas slowly begins to shift southward during the day Sunday as high pressure strengthens across the region. A gradual warming trend will also occur with the vertically stacked high pressure overhead providing subsidence.
408 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Across North America this morning, we have an UL trough across the Pacific northwest, a dome of high pressure centered just to our north, a low on the SE side of Hudson Bay, and a tropical wave from the central Gulf Coast southward toward the Bay of Campeche.
530 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The forecast area remained between a high centered over the southern Plains and a trough off the West Coast. The trough to the west fills early in the coming week which allows the high over the southern Plains to expend westward across the Desert Southwest.
521 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Latest upper level water vapor imagery shows a deep trough just off the western coast of the CONUS and a persistent ridge over the central CONUS. The same trough that is the star of the show on Saturday will provide a rich environment for severe storms on Sunday. The GFS keeps the higher dewpoints in the Panhandle. The NAM does seem to be slightly aggressive for Sunday, but many of the high resolution models are in agreement on deep instability and strong shear and helicity. As the upper level trough continues to move east, multiple rounds of precipitation are expected. Upper level vorticity advection will increase over the high plains producing strong and consistent upward omega values. Southwest flow may mitigate some of the lower RHs due to moisture advection.
337 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The forecast area remained between a high centered over the southern Plains and a trough off the West Coast. The trough to the west fills early in the coming week which allows the high over the southern Plains to expend westward across the Desert Southwest.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Baja del Sur NE well into the Central Plains. To the east, the inverted trough has moved a little west over the past 24 hours, and now sits directly over the MS River. W/the upper ridge positioned where it is, the low-lvl thermal ridge will remain well to the west of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, allowing temperatures here to remain closer to normal throughout the extended. Today and Sunday should be the warmest days this forecast, after which temperatures will fall to near-normal as heights fall w/the approach of the inverted trough.
Southwesterly flow aloft to continue through the weekend with NV wedged between low pressure along the Pacific NW coast and high pressure near the four corners region. A stagnant pattern will remain over the region with a Pacific Northwest trough and high pressure centered over the southern plains.
Moist southeast flow on the east side of the low will combine with daytime heating to bring scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity to the forecast area, but without the colder air aloft/ instability and lift associated with the mid/upper low, these storms will be disorganized and more ordinary than recently experienced with vertical totals generally less than 25.
1025 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front crossing the region later this afternoon and into the evening. Despite slightly warmer temps aloft, sufficient Sufficient instability, steep lapse rates, and dry air aloft will be supportive of isolated severe storms with damaging wind along with small hail. The cold front will reach the I-80 corridor this evening and progress southward overnight, pushing a fairly broken line of thunderstorms south and east. Dry and cooler air behind the front will end storm chances. Less humid air and cooler temperatures expected on Sunday behind the aforementioned front.
A sprawling upper level ridge extends from Baja California Sur northeast into central Canada early this morning. Through the short term, the upper ridge will extend a subtle influence to the northeast into the Midwest, while the strong upper trough drops southeast into the Northeast US.
High pressure aloft will gradually build east from the Plains into the mid MS River and lower OH River Valleys during the short term. As the high pressure builds in with time, temperatures will likely tick up a degree or two each afternoon.
/issued 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ Across North America this morning, we have an UL trough across the Pacific northwest, a dome of high pressure centered just to our north, a low on the SE side of Hudson Bay, and a tropical wave from the central Gulf Coast southward toward the Bay of Campeche.
312 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Very strong ridge of high pressure remains across the Great Plains, with deep southwest flow across the northern High Plains. Downsloping across the northern Black Hills area is keeping adjacent foothill temperatures in the low 80s. Highs well ahead of the low over central SD will reach will into the 90s to just over 100 degrees today. Across northeast WY where the front is expected to arrive this morning, highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Today through Tonight Upper ridge from the southern Rockies into the central Plains states today will allow for dry northeasterly upper flow across the Panhandles today through tonight. The ECMWF MOS was the closest and will adjust some 2 degrees warmer today over the guidance. Schneider A pattern change begins to take place on Sunday as an inverted mid level trough moves west from the coastal areas of MS/LA.
403 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 One more rather hot and muggy day before temperatures begin a downward turn toward below average with weakening mid-level ridge and deepening easterly low level flow.
Look for coastal clouds to dissipate inland by late morning or early afternoon with temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday. Despite the light warming trend, inland areas will remain a bit below seasonal averages as a broad mid/upper level trough lingers over the West Coast. Temperatures are forecast to moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the upcoming week as the trough weakens and lifts northward.
/Today through Sunday/ Showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper trough drifting west across Louisiana will also move south and southwest across the area this morning. As the center of the upper trough passes just south of the area, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop areawide, especially as the atmosphere destabilizes during peak daytime heating. We'll likely rinse and repeat the process again during the day Sunday, but areal coverage of the showers and storms should be somewhat lower as the upper trough drifts farther west into Texas.
Cold front was crossing the area overnight with a jet max over central Montana. Heights begin to build over the area today in the wake of the cold front. High temperatures will range from the middle 70s over western areas to the lower 80s over eastern areas today. The biggest change in the extended is that the models are showing less spread with the evolution of the trough moving through the area mid-week. By mid-week as the aforementioned trough moves into the Pacific Northwest, flow will turn more southwesterly. Reimer A cold front has moved through much of southern Montana and is currently between KMLS and KBHK and KSHR. The lowered flight conditions are expect to dissipate by mid morning, with VFR conditions prevailing.
637 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A mid/upper ridge over the Central High Plains is progged to build slowly north and east across the Central Plains as we move through the weekend. As it does, deep layer easterly flow will develop on the southern periphery of the H5 ridge leading to mostly benign weather conditions across the area.
651 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area today. Scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front this afternoon into this evening.
The center of the upper ridge will drift from the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. MRM An upper ridge centered over the Missouri-Iowa border will stunt precipitation chances early in the coming week, allowing tranquil but seasonally hot and humid conditions to persist. During the beginning of the week an upper level high pressure ridges splits.
/issued 403 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ One more rather hot and muggy day before temperatures begin a downward turn toward below average with weakening mid-level ridge and deepening easterly low level flow.
Shra/tstms, associated with a vort lobe embedded in the mid level inverted trof, will be moving into the region from the northeast toward the southwest today into this evening. Inverted trof will slowly to trek wsw thru the area tonight and Sunday, so there should be additional precip redevelopment.
522 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Very strong ridge of high pressure remains across the Great Plains, with deep southwest flow across the northern High Plains. Downsloping across the northern Black Hills area is keeping adjacent foothill temperatures in the low 80s. Highs well ahead of the low over central SD will reach will into the 90s to just over 100 degrees today. Across northeast WY where the front is expected to arrive this morning, highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
High temps will average in the mid 80s to around 90 with overnight lows close to 70, at least until later in the week when slightly cooler air arrives Saturday or Sunday. Given that overall pattern, PoPs will tend to the low side as considerable uncertainty exists in the timing and location of precipitation through the period.
E/SE winds up to around 10 knots will weaken to 5-10 knots and become S/SE into late tonight as ridge axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic shifts southward across the area.
Mid and high level moisture from Tropical Storm Alvin will work north into the southern Great Basin and parts of the Mojave Desert this weekend bringing an increase in clouds along with a slight and isolated chance of showers to the higher elevations.
Sunday will continue the great weather but be slightly warmer with 80s in valleys of western Montana and around 90 for low elevations of north central Idaho. The presence of a low pressure circulation along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain an unstable atmosphere over the region, with showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon and evening period.
This weather pattern will continue until Sunday morning, before an area of low pressure moves mainly south of the region by Sunday afternoon.
Vis sat trends show a band of cu along the sfc trof over our far southern fcst area early this aftn. It is not impossible that an isolated shower or storm could develop over our extreme sse fcst area until the trof moves south of our fcst area. However the better chc for a shower or storm later this aftn will be se of our fcst area in an area of increasing instability and sfc convergence near the trof axis. Our wx pattern will become more active early to midweek as the upper ridge flattens a bit and puts our area potentially in the path of several convective complexes with ample low level moisture in place and building instability as ML/SB Cape values could potentially reach at least 1500-2500 j/kg daily.
A mid-level low across the Arklatex will continue to slowly drift to the southwest around the southeastern periphery of a mid-level ridge located across the High Plains. Scattered storms on the northwest periphery of the low will continue to affect southeast Oklahoma (Bryan and Atoka counties) through the late afternoon/early evening hours.
130 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front pushes south into the area on Sunday.
415 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area this evening. Scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front.
Temperatures look on track, with most locations a couple degrees cooler than yesterday given cloud and convective trends.
Moreover, a developing upper level trough extending from the Central Plains southward into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to shift to the west later today and Sunday as high pressure ridge over the Rockies amplifies and shifts eastward into the Central Plains.
8 to 2 inch range by late in the afternoon and remain entrenched across the area on Sunday, with the highest of these PWAT values in central Georgia. In the absence of any organized forcing mechanism, convection will once again be diurnally driven today and Sunday, with the highest chances (high-end chance PoPs to low-end likely PoPs) focused across central Georgia where the deepest moisture is expected to located.
A back door surface cold front will move southwestward across the Mid-Atlantic and approach SW VA late Sunday and Sunday night. At the start of the extended, a large portion of the CONUS will be dominated by upper level ridging.
A mid/upper ridge over the Central High Plains is progged to build slowly north and east across the Central Plains as we move through the weekend. As it does, deep layer easterly flow will develop on the southern periphery of the H5 ridge leading to mostly benign weather conditions across the area.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today, where the highest rain chances stay focused along and south of Interstate 40.
200 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Stout upper ridge of 594 dm is elongated from central Miss Valley SW into Northern Mexico and will continue to dominate for a few more days with seasonably warm temperatures and limited instability due to weak subsidence aloft and warm mid level temperatures. Feature of interest continues to be upper low/trough located this morning across SE Texas.
The MCS will develop over the nrn Great Plains later today and eventually track along and just north of the warm front into srn WI after 12Z and likely exiting by 18Z. The gradual rolling over of the Great Plains upper ridge toward the Great Lakes will aid in the steering of the MCS into srn WI. However, heat index values may still be able to rebound into the lower 90s well away from Lake MI.
The center of the upper ridge will drift from the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. MRM An upper ridge centered over the Missouri-Iowa border will stunt precipitation chances early in the coming week, allowing tranquil but seasonally hot and humid conditions to persist. During the beginning of the week an upper level high pressure ridges splits. Winds at KCOU and KUIN should become predominantly westerly as the aforementioned high pressure drifts southeastward.
A cold front will move south of the forecast area overnight. High pressure will build over the region on Sunday. A cold front will move south across the forecast area overnight. High pressure will briefly build over the region on Sunday bringing dry, clear and cooler conditions.
Low to mid level disturbance rounding the western side of the Atlantic ridge late this morning, and is now lifting north up the peninsula.
327 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area today. Scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front this afternoon into this evening.
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Typical summertime upper level ridging is established across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the desert southwest. The exception is across the Northern Plains on the norther periphery of the ridging, where several thunderstorm complexes have dove southeast through the Mississippi Valley the last few days. A cold front will slowly sag into northwest Nebraska tonight as the ridge weakens and begins to flatten slightly. The upper ridge begins to break down and flatten further Sunday, allowing a cold front to slowly move southward across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills.
High temperatures will be into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s. Additional development through the night possible with westerly low level flow impinging warm frontal boundary draped from Upper Mississippi Valley into west central Indiana.
A persistent upper trough will keep the potential for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms across the mountains through the weekend, with relatively dry conditions in the lowlands.
Deep moisture between 700 and 300 mb looks to accompany the trough, along with some elevated instability. Thus, there is the potential for some showers and thunderstorms as this trough moves near/through the region tonight and Sunday. On Sunday (particularly the afternoon), increasing instability during the day could combine with moisture and lift from the aforementioned trough for showers and storms to form along and south of a west to east oriented boundary (which will be located along the Concho Valley and Heartland regions). Otherwise, look for lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s and highs Sunday in the low to mid 90s.
The upper level ridge axis becomes oriented over the region today, and will see the peak of the current heat wave as the low level thermal ridge shifts to the east - resulting in high temperatures into the 90s across the entire area. With dew points back into the lower to mid 70s by afternoon, heat indices will top out at 100 to 105 degrees - with localized higher values - and the Heat Advisory remains valid for this afternoon into mid evening. Another very mild to warm night tonight as lows only fall into the lower to mid 70s. Sunday remains another hot day, though confidence in temperatures is a little lower - dependent on where a surface cold front sliding southward ends up.