Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite the clouds, VFR conditions will remain in place for all TAF sites through 03z Sunday before conditions begin to deteriorate as a warm front begins to push into the area. /This Afternoon/ The morning visible satellite imagery indicates that the narrow areas of low AC cigs over portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/N LA continues to slowly dissipate, with this trend expected to continue this afternoon as weak elevated isentropic ridging weakens in response to a more zonal flow developing over the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley. The 16Z temps are also trending a bit warmer than forecast, and thus did raise temps 1-2 degrees areawide to account for strong insolation with the thinning AC shield, and ahead of the advancing cu field from the SW.
50F+ surface dewpoints and PWATs running around 1" will return Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Light onshore flow around departing high pressure to the NE will produce somewhat milder temperatures. Min temperatures will not be as chilly with lows ranging from the mid 40s across the north interior (Deland), lower 50s metro Orlando to the lower 60s along the immediate Treasure coast (Stuart). High pressure will strengthen off the US east coast and increase the NE-E wind flow, producing breezy conditions especially along the coast.
A warm front is also noted along the coastal plains this afternoon. Cloud cover will thicken this evening as southerly flow in the low- levels strengthens. Some light showers are also possible after midnight as the low-level jet strengthens and the above mentioned warm front moves northward. However, given southerly flow in the low-levels, we should manage to warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Warmer temperatures on the way for the afternoon with lower to middle 50s expected across most of the region.
Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. This upper jet will lead to an area of low pressure in the lower levels. As the low-level flow increases, warm and moist advection will actually warm temperatures up after midnight with the entire forecast area above freezing as precipitation develops in the predawn hours. Isentropic ascent into the right entrance region of the upper jet, ahead of the mid-level short wave trough, mentioned above, will allow precipitation to develop and expand across southeast KS into western MO late tonight into tomorrow morning.
1019 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the region until a weak front moves through tonight.
Low pressure will move across the southern part of the state later today bringing some banded snow with it. While the thinking is the precip will likely shut off at that point, there could be periods of freezing drizzle. North to northwest winds immediately behind the low will gust as high as 35 mph Sunday morning.
1243 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 Weak low pressure will support light snow chances through tonight.
Temperatures will then trend slightly cooler through mid week with unsettled conditions persisting.
Warmer air continues to move in from the west, so will keep highs in the teens to low 20s. Warmer air continues to move into the area this morning. Water vapor loop also indicated another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. Upper trough will move into southern CA by 00Z Mon. Upper level jet on the south and east side of upper trough will nose into SD later this morning and into NE Sat night. Another upper trough extended from northern BC to southern Northwest Territories. This trough will sweep across the forecast area for Sun. Little if any precipitation is expected with upper trough.
As mentioned in the early morning discussion, how far north the 850 mb warm front goes will be the big factor to determine snow totals.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 30 57 45 57 / 80 10 0 60 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 29 55 43 55 / 80 20 0 40 100 Oak Ridge, TN 43 28 55 43 55 / 50 10 0 60 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 27 52 38 52 / 60 30 0 30 100 NC.
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the region until a weak front moves through tonight.
The cold front arrives in northeast NE 10-12z, then quickly sweeps across the forecast area before Noon. However, by this time, the best deep layer saturation may also be pushing northeast, resulting in perhaps more freezing drizzle.
Highs in the 60's and 70's will be common over west TX and Southeast NM ahead of a cold front that will be pressing south across the Panhandle.
Moisture will diminish in the wake of an upper-level trough this evening.
Further upstream, the next trough is beginning to move onshore across the Pacific NW. At the surface, a high pressure cell is emerging off the southeastern US coast out over the Atlantic. Quickly on its heels is another high pressure cell that is moving through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures managed to recover into the lower 70s.
Satellite showing upper low moving across the Pacific northwest today. The center of the low is over eastern Washington with clouds and precipitation focused into northeastern Oregon. Cold advection with the upper low has lowered snow levels.
At the surface, a cold front over the Northern Rockies this afternoon will surge southward across the Northern and Central Plains tonight and Sunday. This front will usher in cooler air for much of the area on Sunday while bringing increasing chances for showers and isolated storms to much of southeast KS.
Although short term models indicate a right-entrance region to a strong zonal upper level jet developing across western Kansas tonight, model soundings indicate a predominate deep layer of drier air holding across the high plains of western Kansas. As for temperatures, prevailing southerlies will draw warmer air into western Kansas tonight resulting in lows ranging from the mid/upper 20s(F) in west central Kansas behind an advancing cold front to temperatures generally in the 30s(F) further southeast ahead of the boundary.
Broad upper trough continues to translate across the eastern US with brisk northwest flow over the northwestern US. Frontogenesis along the northern and northwestern periphery of the low will provide favorable lift for heavier bands of snow across portions of NE WY, NW SD, and the western SD plains. Winds will become breezy following the passage of a cold front overnight into Sunday, which could lead to patchy areas of blowing and drifting snow across portions of NE WY and northern SD.
Within the flow is a trough that will track southeast over the Northern Plains. To the south of the trough dry air has caused the sky to be clear for the most part. At the surface a cold front was moving southeast through Wyoming, and a warm front had moved north into Nebraska. Tonight the light winds will turn to the west then northwest and become breezy as the cold front moves through. Due to the breezy conditions, lows will be warmer than last night for most of the forecast area. Sunday the cold front will be through the forecast area by sunrise. The highest isallobaric pressure rises will be over the northeast half of the forecast area. Highs will be cooler than today. Lows will be cooler than the last couple of nights, falling into the teens and low 20s.
1129 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 As a low pressure syatem over the lower Great Lakes moves away, flurries should come to an end this afternoon. LAPS sounding suggest may be mix with freezing drizzle at times, but only Fulton County is reporting any road issues late this morning. First part of the work week looks quiet, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest.
Temperatures will then trend slightly cooler through mid week with unsettled conditions persisting. Highs will range from the upper 20s north to the low 40s across the Lower Susq Valley. A weak system of low pressure may kick off a few light snow showers during the day on Sunday, especially along the spine of the Laurels and into northeast PA.
145 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a broad, positively tilted trough over the wrn U. Based on rapid deterioration in conditions across sern MT (KMLS/KBHK) early today, do not suspect it will take the low levels long to saturate given sufficient precip.
104 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 A fast-moving low pressure system will move east of the area this afternoon.
It will be warmer and more humid Sunday, ahead of a strong cold front which will be moving into the northern Big County late afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Winds will come down a little overnight and then a cold front will move through the TAF sites around sunrise or shortly after which will bring northerly winds at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts. Main concern for this period will be the low level wind shear anticipated tonight for all three terminals as a cold begins to edge in from the north. Cold front could reach KGUY as early as 3 am tonight. Northwest flow aloft will gradually become more zonal as a transient low amplitude ridge dampens ahead of the next upper trough. This trough can be seen on water vapor imagery digging southeast into the Pac Northwest.
1015 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 A fast-moving low pressure system will move east of the area this afternoon.
128 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 A cold front is moving through central and east Idaho this afternoon. Some light snow is falling across the high country with an inch or two accumulation possible.
Cold front passed through southwestern Idaho early this morning and was nearing Jerome/Twin Falls as of 9 AM MST.
230 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 Weak low pressure will support light snow chances through tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 57 45 57 53 / 10 0 60 100 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 55 43 55 50 / 30 0 40 100 90 Oak Ridge, TN 28 55 43 55 49 / 20 0 60 100 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 52 38 52 47 / 30 0 30 100 90 NC.
Light east northeast winds less than 5 mph with slightly cooler and drier air continues north of the boundary, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and dewpoints in the 30s/40s. South of the boundary, southeast winds and higher dewpoints in the 50s will slowly return northward behind the northward moving warm front.
Temperatures range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with light westerly winds. Latest surface analysis places an area of high pressure over the Mid-South with a lee side 1001mb low just east of the Rockies.
602 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 From late tonight into Sunday morning, strong frontogenetic forcing and moisture advection will develop ahead of a fairly vigorous short wave trough moving east along the Minnesota and Iowa border. As the system begins to move out of the area, there could be a brief period of freezing drizzle.
Warming temperatures through the overnight continue until tomorrow morning before a cold front enters the area with temperatures gradually falling into the afternoon tomorrow. This in turn is helping stronger southerly winds remain in place from western KS into portions of eastern KS with the intensification of a lee trough enhanced a bit by daytime mixing. Behind the cold front, high temps will be tempered by CAA so have kept highs only in the 40s and even suppressed into the the upper 30s for Sunday.
Quick look at 18z NAM and it shifted the higher QPF/Snow totals a bit farther south(similar to previous overall model trends), but still looks good for at least 6 inch accumulation over the far southern metro area to Eau Claire WI. Next threat of precipitation arrives in the Wed/Thu time frame with cooler temperatures following this frontal system. Trends indicate fast flow to continue with another weekend system working across the region with a bit warmer air.
Expect a cold front across the northern Rockies to race southeast overnight.
240 PM PST Sat Feb 8 2020 Cooler this weekend with windy conditions.
724 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 Occasional light snow will end this evening, with minimal snowfall accumulation expected before high pressure builds.
In the meantime, low level moisture will be on the increase ahead of system tonight as the upper level trough continues to slide southeast out of the northern Plains. With surface temperatures hovering near freezing, especially along and east of MS River, precipitation will begin as either snow or a rain/snow mix, then quickly transition to all rain as warmer air moves in.
347 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Elongated vorticity axis yielded some patchy light rainshowers this morning and early afternoon, but have since dissipated as continental high pressure ridge over the eastern U. bridges back into the central gulf coast.
Quickly moving weak cold fronts will mean some more cold air over the weekend, with some light snow showers, mainly in the north, and east.
Lows should range from the lower 30s over central Missouri to the lower 40s over southwestern Missouri. At this point, temperatures look as if they will be above freezing as the drizzle threat increases. The threat for morning drizzle should then transition to more of a shower threat Sunday afternoon as we see at least marginal instability develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Most areas should warm into the lower and middle 50s with upper 50s attainable across far southwestern Missouri.
742 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
With steep mid level lapse rates, some mucape instability, frontogenesis, strong waa, and upper divergence with a strong short wave trough moving through, the snow will become heavy in a band from northwest to southeast. At this time, have a band of heavy snow of 6 to 10 inches from central through northeast South Dakota from south of Mobridge to Watertown.
A cold front will enter the forecast area late Sunday morning and eventually clear the entire area by mid afternoon. Models have come into slightly better and cooler agreement across the area with the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean slightly speeding up.
507 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
The regional surface analysis placed a low pressure center over east-central WY, a quasi-stationary front from southeast MT through northeast WY, the NE Panhandle into western KS. A cold front was moving into western WY. The High Wind Warning for WY Zone 106 remains in effect until 5 PM MST. Recently cancelled the High Wind Warning for the South Laramie Range Foothills as wind gusts have struggled to rise above 45 MPH.
VFR conditions will give way to MVFR conditions late Tonight and into Sunday with widespread showers developing across the area on Sunday as a cold front moves through the region. 50F+ surface dewpoints and PWATs running around 1" will return Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.
With steep mid level lapse rates, some mucape instability, frontogenesis, strong waa, and upper divergence with a strong short wave trough moving through, the snow will become heavy in a band from northwest to southeast. At this time, have a band of heavy snow of 6 to 10 inches across central through northeast South Dakota from south of Mobridge to Watertown.
856 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Surface analysis places high pressure further to the east this evening. As high pressure slides eastward, middle and high level clouds will start to filter in from the west overnight ahead of the next system. Temperatures range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with light westerly winds. Latest surface analysis places an area of high pressure over the Mid-South with a lee side 1001mb low just east of the Rockies.
A large upper level trough moving over the region has been responsible for the uptick in widely scattered snow showers from the higher terrain of north-central Idaho into much of western Montana. This is why we extended the winter weather advisories until 8 pm this evening in southwest Montana, especially to account for refreezing.
440 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a broad, positively tilted trough over the wrn U. Based on rapid deterioration in conditions across sern MT (KMLS/KBHK) early today, do not suspect it will take the low levels long to saturate given sufficient precip.
306 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 From late tonight into Sunday morning, strong frontogenetic forcing and moisture advection will develop ahead of a fairly vigorous short wave trough moving east along the Minnesota and Iowa border. As the system begins to move out of the area, there could be a brief period of freezing drizzle.
525 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 Occasional light snow will end this evening, with minimal snowfall accumulation expected before high pressure builds.
Not as cold tonight with morning lows in the mid 40s in western Volusia and northern Lake Counties, lower 50s Metro Orlando to the lower 60s along the immediate Treasure coast (Stuart). High pressure will strengthen off the US east coast and increase the east-northeast wind flow, producing breezy conditions especially along the coast. High pressure over the southeast U.
650 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
342 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 A cold front will move through the Panhandles Sunday morning. Highs will range from the lower 40's in the far northwest to the upper 50's in the far southeast.
355 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Warming temperatures through the overnight continue until tomorrow morning before a cold front enters the area with temperatures gradually falling into the afternoon tomorrow. This in turn is helping stronger southerly winds remain in place from western KS into portions of eastern KS with the intensification of a lee trough enhanced a bit by daytime mixing. Behind the cold front, high temps will be tempered by CAA so have kept highs only in the 40s and even suppressed into the the upper 30s for Sunday.
Southerly winds will become gusty lat Sunday morning with the highest gusts of 25kts expected across the Delta at KGLH/KGWO and with gusts around 20kts elsewhere. Latest observations have indicated that temperatures have warmed a degree or two warmer than forecast, which isn't too surprising given the lack of cold air advection. Heading into tonight, the frontal boundary to our south is progged to lift north as a warm front with dewpoints and temperatures rising during the night. Warm air advection will ramp up tomorrow as a 40kt low-level jet advects in 850mb temperatures of 9-11 C, which would be upwards of 4- 6 C warmer than today.
Latest observations have indicated that temperatures have warmed a degree or two warmer than forecast, which isn't too surprising given the lack of cold air advection. Heading into tonight, the frontal boundary to our south is progged to lift north as a warm front with dewpoints and temperatures rising during the night. Warm air advection will ramp up tomorrow as a 40kt low-level jet advects in 850mb temperatures of 9-11 C, which would be upwards of 4- 6 C warmer than today.
1056 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
248 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Fine weather expected today with a good bit of sun and warm temps, as SFC/LL high vacate and weak ridging aloft shifts southwest. Deep upper low will move very slowly across the southwest US while SFC/LL high moves across the OH valley. Early Wed however, upper low across the southwest opens and accelerates east, going negative Wed night. This will initially drag a warm north, with a trailing cold front passing Wed night. Gusty southerly winds will continue through the night and there is a great chance for LLWS with winds gusting to 50+kts in the lowest 2000 ft.
Just a quick update to the grids this morning to account for the recently issued freezing fog advisory. Freezing fog also a possibility at both TYS and CHA but no mention in TAFS for now. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 44 58 53 63 / 0 30 100 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 41 54 50 60 / 0 20 100 90 50 Oak Ridge, TN 54 41 54 49 60 / 0 30 100 90 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 37 53 47 57 / 0 20 100 90 50 NC. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Cherokee- Clay. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Bradley- East Polk-Hamilton-Loudon-McMinn-Meigs-North Sevier- Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-West Polk.
/issued 347 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020/ Elongated vorticity axis yielded some patchy light rainshowers this morning and early afternoon, but have since dissipated as continental high pressure ridge over the eastern U. bridges back into the central gulf coast.
/ISSUED 913 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020/ A near stationary warm frontal boundary is now moving up into the northern third of the forecast area. West Coast upper low will keep the southern branch of a split jet over coastal Texas while strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow.
138 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Weak high pressure will build into the area tonight and move off to the east Sunday morning.
Rain chances increase for the evening and have introduced thunder for TXK and TYR towards the end of the period as the cold front pushes into the region from the northwest.
1044 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a broad, positively tilted trough over the wrn U. Based on rapid deterioration in conditions across sern MT (KMLS/KBHK) early today, do not suspect it will take the low levels long to saturate given sufficient precip.
The current VFR conditions will be replaced by MVFR and even possibly IFR conditions later Tonight and Sunday as widespread showers develop in advance of a cold front that will move through on Sunday.
/issued 1000 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020/ Sfc analysis shows the front which crossed the area overnight/this morning has started lifting back nwd as a warm front with srly flow well established behind it across much of the area. Light east northeast winds less than 5 mph with slightly cooler and drier air continues north of the boundary, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and dewpoints in the 30s/40s. South of the boundary, southeast winds and higher dewpoints in the 50s will slowly return northward behind the northward moving warm front.
323 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Dense freezing fog and dense fog advisory until 900 am this morning.
/issued 856 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020/ Surface analysis places high pressure further to the east this evening. As high pressure slides eastward, middle and high level clouds will start to filter in from the west overnight ahead of the next system. Temperatures range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with light westerly winds. Latest surface analysis places an area of high pressure over the Mid-South with a lee side 1001mb low just east of the Rockies.
A few sites along the Highway 82 corridor have reached forecast lows already. Latest observations have indicated that temperatures have warmed a degree or two warmer than forecast, which isn't too surprising given the lack of cold air advection. Heading into tonight, the frontal boundary to our south is progged to lift north as a warm front with dewpoints and temperatures rising during the night. Warm air advection will ramp up tomorrow as a 40kt low-level jet advects in 850mb temperatures of 9-11 C, which would be upwards of 4- 6 C warmer than today.
This zone has the highest chances of seeing 10 to 12 inches and intense snowfall rates of nearly 2 inches per hour. From late tonight into Sunday morning, strong frontogenetic forcing and moisture advection will develop ahead of a fairly vigorous short wave trough moving east along the Minnesota and Iowa border. As the system begins to move out of the area, there could be a brief period of freezing drizzle.
From synopsis, a stationary cold front stalled over the distant Straits of Florida will erode tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will slide east into the western North Atlantic.
1024 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
312 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Light snow showers are expected today as a weak area of low pressure passes by to the south.