Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Skies will be mostly sunny on Wednesday, with warmer temperatures. With development of a lee trough across New Mexico and tightening surface pressure gradient across our area, south-southeast winds will increase Wednesday morning and become gusty. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) A dry and warm weather pattern will persist across the area through the end of the week as upper level ridging moves east across the Rockies and into the Plains.
Should see a clearing sky on Wednesday as high pressure continues building into the Mississippi Valley from the west.
Should see a clearing sky on Wednesday as high pressure continues building into the Mississippi Valley from the west. Should see a clearing sky on Wednesday as high pressure continues building into the Mississippi Valley from the west. Another upper level disturbance will move across Missouri tonight which may bring some light showers and possibly some MVFR ceilings to parts of central Missouri, but current thinking is that the lower ceilings will stay a bit further west near Sedaila or Whiteman AFB.
However, lower confidence in the widespread 1/4 mile visibility fog as the majority of the hires models are very sparse in the lower visibility.
330 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Clearer skies and warmer temperatures are forecast for tomorrow. At the surface, an elongated meridional ridge axis stretched from the eastern Dakotas to the Texas Gulf coast. With the H850 ridge axis not clearing the CWA until late in the day tomorrow, WAA will not be terribly strong. That being said, while many solutions have backed down slightly on highs, leveraged the warmer BC grids for highs tomorrow to account for the models' recent tendency to under-forecast highs by several degrees on days with little cloud cover.
Lingering cloud cover and light precipitation (especially across the eastern part of the CWA) will once again limit daytime heating with highs today mainly in the lower to mid 40s. However by Wednesday, decreasing clouds coupled with building mid-level heights will yield warmer temperatures with afternoon readings in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Mid and high clouds will thicken and increase in coverage across the entire area overnight into Wednesday morning from the southwest, with some more orographic light snow showers possible over the higher terrain as this wave passes. Only anticipating an inch or two at best among the higher peaks with little to no impact. A ridge of high pressure will then slide over the region Wednesday afternoon with milder temperatures and partly sunny skies returning.
Accumulations are expected to be under an inch or two along the higher passes. Wednesday will be warmer with lighter winds.
Continue to expect a mix of rain and snow overnight with all snow in the higher elevations. We are looking for a good deal of deep moisture to move back in across N GA around the back side of the low center this afternoon and tonight. This will bring rain to the area and it will turn over to snow as a cooler airmass moves into the area overnight.
Fairly quiet weather is forecast today as the upper tropospheric pattern across the High Plains and into the Colorado Rockies will be fairly zonal from the west-northwest. 850mb temperatures will be warming back to the +5 to +8C range by late afternoon, warmer out west, and this will translate to surface temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This should help temperatures drop down to the upper 20s to lower 30s for lows, although some high cirrus clouds moving in could complicate this low temperature forecast just a bit.
Clear skies and light to near calm winds in most areas tonight should allow the low temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s, except near 50 near the marine influenced areas of the south shorelines of the tidal lakes and southeast Louisiana coast.
With temperatures near or slightly above freezing and minor snowfall rates, this snow will likely be slushy or melt quickly as it falls, with little additional snowfall amounts expected. Given the shallow nature of the low level moisture and drier air arriving at the mid levels, have removed mention of drizzle or freezing drizzle this evening and tonight. With low level moisture hanging on tonight, there will likely be some patchy fog development with ceilings lowering, especially in the higher terrain. Southerly return flow arrives on Wednesday, which will bring warmer temperatures to the area. There will be a large gradient across the area, with the lower 50s near the Missouri Valley where sunshine will be more ample, while the upper 30s are expected near the Buffalo ridge where it is likely to be cloudy most of the day.
121 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
Most of the precipitation will end by noon, with the low clouds decreasing from west to east during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise high confidence that a nice warming trend will unfold this period for Kansas, as upper level ridge amplifies over the central states and southerly winds increase.
300 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Chilly conditions for the first day of Spring will continue in the near term as persistent upper troughing/northwest flow remains over the Midwest. As the upper low quickly shifts toward the central Appalachians by daybreak, drier air will move into the area resulting in decreasing clouds and continued cool temperatures in the mid 40s across most of the area.
The line of showers and storms have exited the region and now we wait for the upper low to swing into the area. As the upper low works into the winds will begin to pick up. Overall not expected any major areas of freezing temperatures, with the exception of a few locally sheltered areas in the north.
These areas could see some marginal critical fire weather conditions with gusts to around 25-30 mph for the lower elevations of fire zone 222 (Fremont county)where fuels are considered critical. Central mountains will continue to see some gusty west to northwest winds across the higher peaks tonight. though these should not be as strong as today's given upper ridging aloft.
327 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Challenge for the low impact weather for the short term will hinge mostly on cloud cover and light precipitation.
I have an inkling that I might still be too warm as both the HRRR and RAP indicate that we might only top out in the lower 40s as opposed to the mid 40s that I have predicted for today, but this is overall fairly minor. General warming trend through the work week, with northwest flow in advance of the approaching ridge. Then a bit more of a cooldown after the ridge axis pulls east, but still spring-like for the rest of the forecast.
Forecast soundings indicate saturation confined below the dendritic growth zone, depicting a freezing drizzle potential as this passes. Northwest flow sets in over the Northern Plains on Wednesday with upper level ridging over the Rockies and broad low pressure over the eastern CONUS.
235 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Cyclone energy induced rain/snow mix this pm is allowing falling (frozen) pcpn to mostly melt this pm, so minimal impacts are occurring. This should remain the case during these daylight hours, with temperatures above freezing, and dew point depressions ranging upwards to 10F in some spots in our north. Tmrw looks improving, but the continued back side of the cyclone input flow leans us toward a slightly more pessimistic sky forecast than numerical guidance would suggest.
319 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 The upper level low over the Carolina's will begin to lift northeastward as the surface front continues to push away from the forecast area. Forecast soundings support a mixture of rain and snow with all snow across the higher elevations.
Even with clouds, mid March sun and a starting point in the low 30s means most locations will warm above freezing.
The two aforementioned systems will pass the north and south of the area tonight with a ridge of high pressure building in after midnight into Wednesday. High pressure remains in control Wednesday night for partly cloudy skies and lows in the teens to upper 20s.
High pressure will be anchored in the far northern Ontario/James Bay/southern Hudson Bay area thru Wednesday. A 500mb trof will move into the western lakes late on Wednesday. This feature is contributing to the high cloud shroud over northern MI.
An upper level ridge will be building over the region, allowing for warmer air to slowly move into the area.
An area of high pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas tonight.
/issued 340 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/ (Today and Tonight) High pressure at the surface this afternoon will result in quiet weather for today and tonight. Then, temperatures overnight will drop to around the low to mid 40s.
Given the dry low-level air feeding into the area from the high pres to the n, expect this -sn to dissipate before reaching the fcst area. There will be troughing off the Pacific NW coast 00z Thu with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the ern U. This ridge moves to the lower Great Lakes 12z Sun and to the eastern U. A broad trough moves into the Rockies 12z Mon. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Tue. High pressure will generally remain over northern Ontario thru the remainder of this week.
An ISOLD TS will still be possible, mainly around the Pine Ridge area this afternoon. WAA will prevail Wed through Fri as trough re-loading commences over the western CONUS.
322 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Cyclone energy induced rain/snow mix this pm is allowing falling (frozen) pcpn to mostly melt this pm, so minimal impacts are occurring. This should remain the case during these daylight hours, with temperatures above freezing, and dew point depressions ranging upwards to 10F in some spots in our north. Tmrw looks improving, but the continued back side of the cyclone input flow leans us toward a slightly more pessimistic sky forecast than numerical guidance would suggest.
Medium Low pressure in the southeast US will continue to pull into the eastern seaboard this period. However, low level thermal trough amplifies a bit which will combine with the onshore flow to generate some lake clouds.
A cold front extending south of a complex of low pressure over the Mid Atlantic, continued to produce scattered severe weather from eastern North Carolina to Florida.
Evening convection across Martin/St Lucie will sweep southeast from Treasure coast into late evening as the surface cold front will move through the area and a dry slot aloft will work overhead through the late night hours. Will see clearing skies and cooler air move into central FL with low level WNW flow. Dry, breezy/windy and cooler conditions will occur Wed behind the front then remaining dry and cooler than normal into the end of the workweek as a continental ridge across the central U. High pressure then shifts offshore of the Southeast U.
The high will begin to slide east this evening through Wednesday with winds becoming more east to southeast in the process. For Wednesday, a warm yet pleasant day is expected under mostly sunny skies, with temps slightly warmer in the upper 70s across the Coastal Plains to lower 80s across the Brush Country. Wednesday night will still be cool, but temperatures will be slightly warmer when compared to tonight, with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Due to lack of upper level support with mid level ridge over the region, expect this activity to continue to weaken early this morning. Mid level ridge to shift east with flow backing as s/w tracking into the MS VLY tonight. Thunderstorm chances will increase, especially over the nw counties as low level convergence/warm front develops. With increasing moisture and clouds temperatures will be mild tonight with lows generally in the lower 70s. Ongoing storms to start Thursday especially invof of the warm front. Warm temperatures to continue with Thursdays highs from the lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. Cold front will be moving east Thursday night.
Rain is likely with a Thursday cold front. Increasing southwesterly flow late tonight into Thursday will lift a warm front through the area. The warm front will lift north of the area Thursday afternoon, with mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector.
A broad area of warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front will produce lift for more scattered convection this afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes across central Kansas. Warm sector temperatures will push into the mid and upper 80s and with dew points in the low to mid 70s will yield heat index readings in the middle 90s. Lingering showers Thursday morning will give way to quieter weather, as high pressure builds for the afternoon and overnight hours. Slightly cooler and less humid weather will settle in on Thursday, but heat index readings will still manage to top off near 90.
A cold front moving across western Kansas early this morning will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms by this afternoon and early evening. The front will likely have a better push southward over the higher terrain to our west. Warmer lower to mid level temperatures over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas may limit convective potential, however, there should be enough storm organization to keep high chance POPs across this area.
624 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Clear skies and calm winds overnight have allowed for patchy dense fog to form through the lower Susquehanna river valley.
Airmass will modify only slightly keeping temperatures in the low 80s.
249 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A weak and almost exclusively dry cold front will drift south across Central PA tonight before dissipating as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Morning sunshine on Thursday will fade behind increasing afternoon clouds as a warm front approaches from the south, bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the region mainly Thursday night.
Most of the model guidance has backed off on the rain chances for the rest of the night, despite the slow arrival of a warm front from the southwest. Overnight, skies become partly cloudy and once again a little warmer than the night before.
Because of the earlier start to convective development today, guidance is slightly cooler with highs expected to be slightly below climatic average.
333 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front.
304 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Developing storm system over western Kansas early this morning will be lifting northeast and strengthening today, with the synoptic models centering the low over southeast Minnesota by late tonight. A line of thunderstorms associated with the cold front itself should begin to take shape by mid afternoon from western Iowa into Kansas. The low will continue to strengthen as it lifts northeast across Wisconsin on Thursday, with the front itself crossing the forecast area Thursday afternoon.
A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma late tomorrow afternoon and will slowly shift southeastward through the evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across north central into central Oklahoma. A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front toward the the end of the TAF period. One of the stronger waves passes overhead tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing the highest rain chances to the area, along with a risk of additional severe storms.
This still seems like a day in the lower to upper 80s from north to south. With zonal flow and a dearth of largescale trofs across the area, daily chances for precip will be inextricably tied to mesoscale processes.
308 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017 An upper-level trough along the West Coast will maintain a deep marine layer with below average highs today, and create areas of drizzle this morning.
This afternoon, ridging is shunted eastward into the Dakotas as a weak upper level vort max moves into the Absarokas. A couple showers and thunderstorms possible over the Absarokas this afternoon but elsewhere expecting clear skies with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Stronger low pressure system moves intro the area Thursday morning.
Most locales will top out in the lower 90s, on par for mid August. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but with sufficient sunshine in the afternoon, still expecting mid to upper 80s.
Deep layer ridging continues to build in from the east. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices around 105 degrees.
213 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Low pressure and an associated weak frontal boundary will slowly drop south into North Carolina later tonight into Wednesday. High pressure over the Great Lakes builds into the northeast and mid Atlantic region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. The high slides off the coast Thursday afternoon as the next low pressure systems moves through Ontario.
A large 500mb trough was set up across the western half of the nation, with a ridge across MN and down through IL, leaving us in southwesterly flow aloft. An initial embedded trough currently over western WY will swing over western SD Wednesday morning, and exit across the eastern half of the state through the afternoon hours. We are currently stuck between exiting high pressure across the Great Lakes region, and low pressure nearing from western SD/NE.
Surface dewpoints are widespread in the 30s up in the high country with even some 20s way up high.
A strong upper level trof across UT/NV this afternoon will approach Nebraska overnight lowering heights aloft, steepening lapse rates and forcing thunderstorm development. The model consensus shows a sfc cold front drifting southeast overnight with a large warm sector opening up across Ncntl Neb. The rain activity is expected to shift east Wednesday morning with cooler temperatures and northwest winds. The upper level trof across UT/NV this afternoon moves into the midwest Thursday morning.
407 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper level analysis has a trof across the western CONUS, and another across New England with weak ridging across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure and weak trof reside across the central and eastern Dakotas, with main low across Kansas. High pressure is settling into the Northern Rockies behind the surface trof. Upper level trof across the western CONUS will shift into the Northern Plains as the surface trof move east of the area. Near zonal flow and weak ridging is expected for the end of the week and this weekend, with mainly dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures. Clouds will decrease as surface & upper level trof cross the forecast area.
132 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. A warm front lifts through tonight, with POPs on the increase through the night.
The upper ridge builds somewhat through the period. A front starts to move into west TN on Thursday however the upper ridge holds across the forecast area.
Will go with persistence for temperatures today through Thursday as the upper level ridge across the southeast U.
However, since highs are expected to be a tad cooler than previous thinking then heat indices should stay below 105 degrees as well. Once that convection dies out then all eyes will turn to the north as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front that will be sinking south through Missouri.
In fact, decent agreement exists now on the overall evolution of the low pressure system and associated precipitation shield to our south. On Thursday, a narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface will be in place, providing for dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
/issued 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ Today have an upper ridge centered over FL with a broad trough over the western US. As the trough moves off to the east the ridge will shift back west to TX and NM by Thursday. Over the weekend a cut off low does form off the CA coast but current models sweep it over the top of the ridge. Will have some rain chances in the extended mainly over the higher elevations.
This should result in generally warmer temperatures across the area, rebounding back into the 90s across most of the area after yesterday's cooler temperatures. By late this afternoon and evening, a cold front currently moving into the northwestern Texas panhandle region will approach our northern counties.
Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 80s. A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes region.
The sub-tropical ridge remains stretched from the Atlantic into the northern gulf coast this morning which is keeping the warm south fetch in place. Aloft the region is between a ridge over Texas and a ridge over Florida. An upper low is over the central gulf. With no ridge in place aloft, the area under the northern edge of an upper low, and a hot and humid air mass in place another day of showers and storms can be expected. Beyond today weak ridging aloft is expected to build over the area.
Sfc map this afternoon features a warm front across southern NE with low pressure across southeast CO. Meanwhile, water vapor sat loop shows one wave across northern OK moving into southern KS with the main upper trough still back near the Four Corners. The main trough axis lifts out over south central and eastern NE Wednesday night.
A weak area of low pressure over the western states will provide a tranquil weather pattern and a slight warming trend for most of our region through the weekend.
338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Early this morning an upper trough extended from the Northern Plains into CA. This has helped weaken the upper ridge over Mexico with SE Texas now on the western edge of the upper high pressure ridge centered around the FL/GA border. An upper low located over was over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Today and Thursday the upper low will drift westward as the ridge builds westward as well. Even as the upper low moves west over the lower Texas coast, the building ridge aloft will keep rain chances low over SE Texas on Thursday.
333 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Southeast New Mexico and West Texas will remain under fairly weak westerly flow aloft today while an upper ridge to the east slowly begins to inch westward. 850mb temps back off a few degrees and slightly cooler highs expected. The upper ridge will continue to build to the west heading into the weekend, decreasing rain chances across the FA. Looks like we could get enough heating/instability and southeast/upslope flow in and near the mountains to overcome the suppression of the upper ridge for some afternoon/evening storms each day through the weekend.
Wednesday and Thursday will be more humid than previous days, with noticeably warmer overnight lows. This is particularly true as the night wears on and lower level convergence/warm frontal structure begins to develop and increase. With near 70F dewpoints advecting into the area, think overnight lows will only fall into the lower 70s for most on Wednesday night. Period looks like it will begin with a warm front crossing the region and scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. Later in the day, additional thunderstorms are expected as a cold front pushes east up the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures overnight were generally in the lower to mid 60s. With the clear skies and decent radiational cooling, lows will bottom out in the lower 50s tonight. An upper ridge across the Western U. The ridge then flattens and progresses onto the southern Plains over the weekend, transitioning the flow to zonal across the central/northern Plains.
The upper 500mb ~594DM upper ridge will slowly build west into Wednesday & increase heights in the area. In addition, the strong surface ridging wedging into the east will help suppress convection overall as we go into tonight & also help winds lighten up. Lows should be warm above normal in the low-mid 70s. Our area will still be situated in the western periphery of the upper ridge while an upper low propagates northwest across the central to northern Gulf.