Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Departing Rainfall this Evening then Dense Inland Fog After Upper level short wave trough axis was pushing across the local forecast area this hour, with a cluster of thunderstorms moving from the JAX westside across the JAX Northside and Nassau and Camden counties. This cluster of storms formed along a lifting warm front/inland moving coastal trough axis, with upper level dynamical support enhancing updraft formation this afternoon/evening across inland NE FL. As the upper level trough departs offshore over the next couple of hours, deepest convection will press farther offshore as well, with just trailing showers which will tapper off over inland areas through midnight. Low level moisture will linger through the night, with the low level trough axis meandering across north Florida.
1023 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing a few showers. Cold and dry weather will arrive Wednesday with high pressure. Dry conditions are forecast for the remainder of this week as the high shifts to the East Coast, while temperatures increase in the southerly flow behind the high. Surface cold front bisecting Ohio will push east of ILN/s FA around midnight. Expect lows from the upper 20s west to the lower 30s east. A cold and dry airmass associated with high pressure extending from Northern Mexico to the Great Lakes will provide dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure extending across the area at the beginning of the period will move off to the east.
High pressure will continue to strengthen across the region over the next 24 hours, then remain in place through the remainder of the week.
946 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Cold front is pushing into southern Indiana, and just within the last hour or so has generated enough lift to show some decent radar returns. Broken cirrus clouds are beginning to spread overhead from western KY and southern IL ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front was draped from Lower Michigan through central Illinois, where radar showed a thin band of light precip pushing east. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s. High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, which will mean a cold start to Thanksgiving. Overnight lows should end up in the mid 20s for most, with typical cool spots possibly reaching the low 20s.
543 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 The cold front is progressing through South-Central Texas and will be through AUS shortly and the rest of the TAF sites a couple of hours later. A cold front and prefrontal trough currently moving into the Hill Country sweep across South Central Texas early this evening. Weak isentropic lift briefly develops as an upper level trough and jet streak move across our area tonight. Somewhat breezy conditions develop after the frontal passage as high pressure builds in due to a tight surface pressure gradient and continue into Wednesday.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: A mid level trough axis was working into the region, with the associated strong cold front now south and east of nrn Michigan. Forcing with the trough was a bit better than expected with DPVA working with RUC analyzed stronger upper divergence. High pressure and clear skies were seen in the middle of the country. Through Wednesday, the higher pressure will work into the region with low level winds backing more west then possibly a little south of west.
836 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front continues to move through the Mid-South this evening. Current temperatures are in the 40s, but will drop into the lower to mid 30s for lows. /issued 231 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ A cold front continues to move south toward the CWA this afternoon and will reach Walnut Ridge and Corning in the next hour or so.
518 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 The cold front will sweep out of our southeast counties by early this evening, but not before dropping some flurries or sprinkles across our northern and eastern counties this afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight, to less than 10mph, as the pressure rises weaken and the center of high pressure gets closer to Illinois from the Plains. Plenty of cold air will settle into the area behind the front, with lows dropping into the low to mid 20s. Full sunshine will not be of much help, as the cold Canadian air limits the highs to the mid to upper 30s.
An upper level ridge remains anchored in place just off the southeastern U. This ridge helps to keep the CWA under NW flow, hence the numerous fronts that are expected to push thru the area. With swly flow ahead of an approaching front on Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Winds will decrease tonight as high pressure builds into the area.
922 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will pass through tonight into early Wednesday, while weak low pressure moves up the coast. High pressure will build back overhead later Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day.
424 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Upper level flow will remain amplified, but progressive in the period, bringing unseasonably warm weather with periodic ridge topping/flattening impulses in the flow. Vigorous mid level impulse will push into the region Thur night int Fri, supporting a cold front and some precip chances over the western 1/3.
526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 226 PM CST The cold front quickly pushing across the region extends from northern Indiana through central Illinois at 230PM CST. Temperatures tonight should drop into the lower to middle 20s across area, with some isolated upper teens possible in sheltered low-lying areas. With high pressure building in from the west tomorrow, winds should be relatively light through the day and even with ample sunshine, temperatures tomorrow will only reach into the lower to middle 30s.
627 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 VFR conditions currently across the terminals with a cold front approaching from the west.
451 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Dry air will slowly filter into the region from the west as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Desert Southwest. Dispersing cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb this afternoon with some impressive temperature changes from the past 24 hours with current temperatures sitting some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Available moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere remains scant so am confident in continuing with the previous forecaster's reasoning for just some light snow flurries lingering over the northern mountains through Wednesday.
Strong cold front that moved through the dvn cwa this morning and brought a brief period of light rain and sleet, extended from lower MI to north TX. Tonight: Canadian high pressure will push into the cwa with winds quickly diminishing by sunset. Wednesday: The high pressure ridge will shift to our southeast allowing winds to back to the southwest. Initially gusty northwest winds close to 15 kts will diminish to 10 kts or less this evening as high pressure over the northern plains spreads into the area.
312 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Dry air will slowly filter into the region from the west as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Desert Southwest. Dispersing cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb this afternoon with some impressive temperature changes from the past 24 hours with current temperatures sitting some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Available moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere remains scant so am confident in continuing with the previous forecaster's reasoning for just some light snow flurries lingering over the northern mountains through Wednesday.
716 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front entering NY from the west will bring chilly temperatures and a quick shot of rain and snow showers to our area early Wednesday morning. While Tuesday felt more like a mid-October day with temperatures well into the 50s, a storm system moving out of the Great Lakes will combine with a deepening trof to bring a quick shot of rain and snow showers, then much colder temperatures.
700 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A weak area of low pressure will develop off the Florida coast, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast tonight. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. An area of low pressure has become well defined just off the FL panhandle. Min temps should vary from the mid 40s NW to the low-mid 50s SE. Its attendant sfc cold front will move through during the morning into mid-day hours, followed by subtle CAA, subsidence and drying in its wake. High pressure will gradually build to our north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Look for lows from the lower 30s north (lighter wind closer to the high center) to upper 30s south (where thicker highs clouds will be found).
608 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight.
940 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday through the end of the week.
907 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Rain and snow showers will accompany a cold front across the region tonight.
713 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Mostly VFR ceiling will follow the cold front over SE Michigan during the night. There will remain potential for lake effect contributions to stratocu coverage which will diminish during the day as high pressure approaches the region. Cold front will surge through area late this afternoon/early this evening. Lift from upper trough forcing this front aided to some degree by right entrance region of H25 jet streak lifting up east side of the trough will maintain a band of rain showers along and immediately behind this front. Colder air will settle into the area behind this front, with lows in the low/mid 20s tonight and highs no better than the middle 30s on Wednesday as the core of this cold airmass settles over the central Great Lakes.
950 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Latest analysis shows the warm frontal boundary has pushed into the FL panhandle, leaving weak dry air advection in its wake across central FL. Threat for thunder remains low, however, as nocturnal heating min and weak lift behind the warm front should limit vertical motion. Warm frontal boundary has pushed into the FL panhandle, leaving a greatly slackened pgrad in its wake.
738 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 New Information added to update section Updated to add a mention of freezing drizzle over north central and northeast WI Wednesday night. BUFKIT soundings indicate potential for a brief period of light snow or flurries, followed by a few hours of freezing drizzle as mid-level moisture erodes. With the potential for early holiday travel, opted to update now and put a mention of freezing drizzle and slick roads in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
956 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A weak area of low pressure will develop off the Florida coast, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast tonight. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. Previous Discussion (As of 700 PM): An area of low pressure has become well defined just off the FL panhandle. Min temps should vary from the mid 40s NW to the low-mid 50s SE. Its attendant sfc cold front will move through during the morning into mid-day hours, followed by subtle CAA, subsidence and drying in its wake. High pressure will gradually build to our north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Look for lows from the lower 30s north (lighter wind closer to the high center) to upper 30s south (where thicker highs clouds will be found).
436 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 A dry sfc cold front continues to move through MO.
750 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Latest surface analysis shows leading edge of the truly cold air, which lagged well behind the cold front, now along or just south of the I-44 corridor this evening. The center of the surface anticyclone will slide south tonight, and then over our area on Wednesday. A strong cold front is currently pushing through the forecast area, with strong northerly winds and much cooler temperatures behind it. Highs tomorrow will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than those today.
854 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure centered over northern Nebraska this evening is forecast to push into Iowa by Wednesday morning with the ridge axis just to our west. The cold front will sweep out of our southeast counties by early this evening, but not before dropping some flurries or sprinkles across our northern and eastern counties this afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight, to less than 10mph, as the pressure rises weaken and the center of high pressure gets closer to Illinois from the Plains. Plenty of cold air will settle into the area behind the front, with lows dropping into the low to mid 20s. Full sunshine will not be of much help, as the cold Canadian air limits the highs to the mid to upper 30s.
630 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A weak area of low pressure will develop off the Florida coast, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast tonight. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. An area of low pressure has become well defined just off the FL panhandle. Min temps should vary from the mid 40s NW to the low-mid 50s SE. Its attendant sfc cold front will move through during the morning into mid-day hours, followed by subtle CAA, subsidence and drying in its wake. High pressure will gradually build to our north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Look for lows from the lower 30s north (lighter wind closer to the high center) to upper 30s south (where thicker highs clouds will be found).
High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona over through this weekend.
536 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Brisk north winds prevailing over the region this afternoon following the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. Meanwhile, latest satellite shots show a fair amount of clearing across the area this afternoon which will set the stage for strong radiational cooling later tonight after winds weaken and high pressure arrives from the northwest. From a sensible weather standpoint, very little in the way to get excited about this week as high pressure remains in control through the Thanksgiving holiday. In fact, much of our upcoming weather will be influenced by building heights aloft as West Coast ridging breaks down and warm air slides downstream over the Great Plains through late week.
555 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Dealing with a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings this evening across our airspace ahead of a cold front which will be moving southward into our airspace overnight. As a result, drier air in the low levels will eventually spread into our region overnight with much of the cloud cover dissipating later this evening or after midnight.
911 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Low pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east and drag a cold front across the local area this evening.
638 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday through the end of the week.
/Issued 252 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017/ Weak high pressure off the southeast coast will continue to build away from the forecast area, and surface winds will shift to the north and northwest overnight. The tail end of a longwave trough will shift across north Georgia through tomorrow afternoon. The trough will help pull an inverted surface wave just south of the forecast area through early tomorrow evening. These features will bring a quick shot of increased moisture across the area tonight, with some clearing beginning in the northwest by mid morning tomorrow as cool high pressure builds into north Georgia.
734 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A very dry period is in store after a weak, dry cold front passes through overnight and early in the morning. High pressure will then hold until another cold front with meager precipitation rolls through in the middle of the Holiday weekend. After that, high pressure will build back in for several more days. The brief period of lake effect snow showers Wed morning will end by mid to late Wednesday morning as the approach of high pressure and falling inversion heights should result in minimal accums early in the day across the western mountains. GEFS mean 8h temps between -4C and -9C should translate to highs from the low 30s across the high terrain of northwest Pa, to the upper 40s across Lancaster Co.
642 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front entering NY from the west will bring chilly temperatures and a quick shot of rain and snow showers to our area early Wednesday morning. While Tuesday felt more like a mid-October day with temperatures well into the 50s, a storm system moving out of the Great Lakes will combine with a deepening trof to bring a quick shot of rain and snow showers, then much colder temperatures.
527 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Wind speeds in the wake of the cold front have begun to diminish faster than originally expected, so the Wind Advisory was dropped at 11AM as no observations were reaching criteria any longer. With persistent northwest flow, temperatures will remain below freezing, seeing no daytime improvement and combined with the breezy conditions, the apparent temperature will be in the teens all afternoon. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today with low to mid 30s expected area-wide. By tomorrow evening, the building ridge across the western CONUS will begin encroaching on western MN leading in to Thanksgiving day.
A backdoor cold front moving west this evening will result in easterly gap/canyon winds at KSAF and KABQ this evening. Strong high pressure near the Baja Peninsula will keep Pacific storm systems well north of New Mexico through the Holiday weekend.
430 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 Today through tonight: The very cold trough responsible for this past week's cold outbreak will continue to shift northeast of the area this weekend. The ArkLaMiss is currently on the outer margins of arctic high pressure that is moving through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region today.
This high will work its way to the east by tonight turning low level winds back out of the south and providing enough incoming moisture to allow for the development of a low level cloud deck Sunday morning Jones. Temperatures were very similar to this time yesterday morning across Texas and Louisiana with lows in the low to mid 30s. The low level jet will ramp up in the afternoon with disturbances approaching the area.
449 AM PST Sat Jan 6 2018 A cold front will move across the central California interior today.
621 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.
The low level warm advection has been supporting steady flurries across much of central North Dakota this morning. The Superblend guidance trended the highs down 1 to 2 degrees over previous forecast implying the inversion will be late to break, or at least not see as robust mixing. Tonight the warmer air/subsidence moves across the region at h850 and in general this will continue eroding the clouds while holding temperatures up a bit.
453 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2018 A cooler airmass remains over the eastern sections of the forecast area today with lower clouds and patchy fog this morning. The upper trough moving through the Intermountain Region today will move across the forecast area Sunday morning.
520 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 The main focus of this forecast continues to be the potential for wintry weather on Sunday, and particularly the potential for light icing from freezing rain. The NAM continues to be an outlier, showing a slow warm up to just above freezing through much of the forecast area. A secondary concern is that given how cold we've been for nearly 3 weeks, that ground temperatures will lag the air temperature and still be able to accumulate ice with air temperatures above freezing. But given a cold start, with warm advection precipitation overrunning the shallower cold air, the potential for freezing rain looks very real. And icing on the order of several hundredths to as much as a tenth of an inch looks possible before air/ground temperatures rise above freezing.
GAH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A ridge axis runs up the High Plains from Colorado to Alberta. An equally large trough sets just behind it over British Columbia and eastern Washington State. Father west, another ridge-trough couplet sets over the northeast Pacific. Today through Tonight: Ridge axis will move forward this morning as pacific air from the trough behind it rapidly eats away at the crest of the ridge from the northeast. Even though the daytime highs may break freezing in several places, a cold front is expected to arrive by mid to late afternoon. The airmass may compress enough to generate weak mixed-showers this evening from any snow-melt moisture that was generated by the earlier ridge's passage. While a small chance for freezing rain exists with this passage, the passage will be very fast and shouldn't leave any accumulations.
Temperatures range from the lower to mid 50s in the Upper keys to near 60 degrees elsewhere. Despite a massive, extremely sharp and unusually deep trough reaching down to just above 850 mb, moisture will remain limited across the island chain.
Expect increasing cloud cover this morning in advance of an approaching trough. This trough will pass through the Four Corners and bring a chance for showers later today through Sunday morning to the northern third of Arizona.
Downsloping should act to hinder pcpn over the plains with most of the snow falling over the higher peaks.
1034 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 Large area of high pressure located across the area today with subsidence and clear skies expected. Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 17 42 32 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 11 38 27 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 28 11 38 28 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 5 36 23 / 0 0 0 10.
655 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U.
514 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 Another quiet and cold weather day with high pressure across the mid Mississippi River valley. A trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will cross the Rockies tonight and onto the Plains Sunday. Due to warm aloft, there probably will not be ice in the clouds, and with surface temperatures below freezing, there is an opportunity for light freezing drizzle or freezing rain for a short period before warming above freezing to allow for just drizzle or rain. We do have some very minor icing forecast in extreme southeast NE/southwest IA Sunday morning, with just isolated slick spots all the way north to I80 where freezing drizzle or light snow could occur, but with no accumulation.
The focus of the short term period was on the approaching cold front towards the end of the period. It still appears that the best lifting and deep layer moisture will be confined to along and east of the I-35 corridor, especially after 00Z when the 850 mb trough axis is positioned over the corridor (per the 00Z GFS/ECMWF).
Persistent longwave trough over the eastern U. At the surface, reinforcing ridge of high pressure over the upper Mississippi River Valley builds towards the mid Atlantic coast today. Freezing temps over the Nature coast early this morning to rise above freezing around 8 am while low level flow veers NE off the W Atlantic to allow the slow moderating trend to start, but temps will remain about 10 degrees below seasonal averages today and tonight. May see brief freezing temps persist in Levy County tonight.
853 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 We started off the weekend with another day of cold temperatures with some freezing temps reported over the northern counties north of Hernando County along the Nature Coast. Most places are already above freezing at this time and will continue to warm up nicely under mostly sunny skies through the day. With that being said, temperatures will still run about 10 degrees below average with highs expected in the low 50's for the northern counties and low 60's from Tampa Bay southward. High pressure to remain north over the region keeping NE-E winds over the E Gulf waters through the weekend combined with evening and overnight surges for elevated winds and seas into the SCEC range.