Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER PICTURE AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 TO -7C AND ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUGGEST LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
A MOISTURE CHALLENGED TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. RW MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CREATED SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THIS MOISTURE AS THIS BAND DROPS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF IN EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RETURN FLOW WAS NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST DUE TO A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. BEST SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS THE CONTINUING WEST COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE COASTAL PLAINS SEA BREEZE.
816 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON'S BAY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A CUTOFF LOW TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST IS SHOWING AN EXPOSED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY FOR FRIDAY. IN ADDITION THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE STABILITY INDICES INDICATING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. STILL FORESEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 Generally quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected over the next several days as upper-level high pressure currently over the southern Plains continues to retrograde westward and brings northwest flow back across the region. At the surface, high pressure will drift very slowly to the east, allowing light southerly winds and a bit more moisture to seep back into the region beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, bringing dewpoints back into the upper 60s to near 70, and max heat indices back into the mid to upper 90s most afternoons. A few disturbances may ride down the ridge and into the region during the forecast period, but will be somewhat difficult to pin down both spatially and temporally.
THIS TROUGH PRECEDES A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH, ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LAMESA, TO GUTHRIE, TO VERNON. ON FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. CONTINUITY AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS HAS IMPROVED TODAY REGARDING A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THEY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PLACING MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THEY ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WASHING OUT LATER THAT EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY OR NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY/HEARTLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO. WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED SLIDING ACRS ND. AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH. UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE COAST AND INLAND.
MODELS WERE IN GENEARL AGREEMENT THAT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKING INTO QUEBEC TUE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THU.
735 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 924 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA WERE IN THE LOWER 60S TO A FEW UPPER 50S. A LARGE SFC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THE CHC OF PCPN OUT ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.
STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND PINE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS TO TREK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
850 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL EVOLVE INTO HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
929 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND MORE TOLERABLE ON FRIDAY. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWESTWARD. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AND NOT WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Storms are finally settling down for the evening, but heavy cloud cover over the area will mean another night with warmer temperatures- only dropping to the mid-upper 70s, around 80s along the coastline.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z.
MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NORTHWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE PLUME WILL DETERMINE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED. FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE DOMINATE OVER THE REGION EXTENDING NW WELL INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A 700 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WILL HELP WITH KEEPING AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT REGULATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BRING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WILL HINDER HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWESTWARD. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AND NOT WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 14 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY.
1048 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
For tonight, look for comfortable weather with lows in the low to mid 60s. Winds will be light and variable due to a Canadian high pressure system hovering overhead. Northwest flow will persist into the weekend as summertime ridging becomes more focused over the deserts of New Mexico.
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL EVOLVE INTO HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF IN EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RETURN FLOW WAS NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER FOR ALMOST ALL PARTS OF THE CWA.
947 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. WITH THE UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN. AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF.
A WELCOMED COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EVIDENT COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACTUALLY HAVING A CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. 58/ROSE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY.
709 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT'S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS TIGHTENED THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
728 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MS. 58/ROSE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 91 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 88 65 88 / 10 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 87 62 85 / 0 0 0 10.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 01/06Z WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED. SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
THE FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.
THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH H850 TEMPS NORTHEAST (COOLER THAN) OF THE 14C ISOTHERM. EXCEPT IN THE METRO WHERE TEMPS WILL HANG ON INTO THE LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U. FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN AS THE SURFACE HEATS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO COOLER AIR ALOFT.
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO. WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED SLIDING ACRS ND. AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH. UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.
922 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
1022 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 Upper ridge axis extending from southwest to northeast across the southern plains continues its firm hold over the region this morning.
BUT THIS TIME THERES JUST A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH AND GIVING THE REGION A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE EAST TO NORTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW RATHER THAN DUE NORTH DRYNESS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.
A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY AND BECOME MORE ROBUST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE WESTERN ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROF/FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A NORTHGATE TO MINOT TO STEELE TO ASHLEY LINE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2200 J/KG (HRRR VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS IN THE HIGHEST CAPE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. A WEAK VORT MAX AND SWT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER NRN MANITOBA BRINGING A CHANCE OF WEAK SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. MAJORITY OF AREA HOWEVER WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ENTERING FAR NW.
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WARMER AS SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE.
COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OUR COLD UPPER LOW IS ALREADY IN ALBERTA. COOL UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW STATES WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE CAROLINA COAST WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LOW. A WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
949 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TRUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFFSHORE JAX BEACH NWD INTO SE GA.
A deep upper level trough will eject rapidly northeastward into the northern plains today, helping to push a weak cold front into western Kansas by late this afternoon.
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ROTATING A FEW EMBEDDED WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE AND SW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. BUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 68 88 69 / 30 20 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 66 87 67 / 20 10 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 67 87 67 / 20 10 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 62 86 63 / 20 10 30 10.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE TROUGH HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
1246 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON LABOR DAY.
/ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ THE RIDGE. AM INCLINED TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE ATTM. BY MONDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AS THE FEATURE HELPS TO SQUASH HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.
THE BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH MID LEVEL HIGH IN TEXAS RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. AS UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST TODAY. JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH WILL SHOVE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE LOWER 90S WILL YIELD GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A BROAD TROUGH FROM UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND THE BULK OF LSA CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE FA. SUPPORTING MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WAS ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN LA COAST AT 930 AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH IN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
/ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ PATTERN TODAY IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EAST.
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A nearly persistence forecast today, with an upper ridge parked directly over West Central Texas. Some of the high resolution models indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, however, this convection has failed to verify the last several days, with strong subsidence under the upper ridge.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. TO THE LOWER 50S.
A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY AND BECOME MORE ROBUST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY. NEVER TO TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! A MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST.
1231 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
There is a chance of thunderstorms along and just ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cells, but the main concern is damaging wind gusts given the high cloud bases.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RETROGRADES INTO THE GOMEX BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MAV/MET LOOKS IN LINE. ATWELL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. COLD FRONT NEARING GRAND JUNCTION AND CHEYENNE. AND WENT A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE AS WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE COOLER AIR MASS AND LESS CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. SHOULD BE SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
Upper ridge axis remains oriented from TX northeastward along the IA/IL border, just northwest of the CWA. So am expecting temps in the lower to middle 90s again this afternoon. Hot and humid Monday with highs in the lower 90s, except upper 80s nw of the IL river where more clouds expected and better chances of convection. Muggy lows again in the lower 70s Monday night. Cold front that moves into the IL river valley during Tue night, pushes se through rest of central IL on Wed and thru southeast IL by Wed evening.
/ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD.