Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Broad trough over the western CONUS will be the driving force and focus for changing weather today and into the weekend. A strong jet along the base of the trough will nose into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, allowing the pressure gradient to tighten aloft. The trough axis swings across the Rockies on Saturday, but any precipitation tied to this system remains well to our north. Localized critical conditions will likely develop again Saturday, though cooler temperatures and increased RH will also dip into the northern borders of our CWA. The northern tier of the CWA should see a larger drop in high temps Saturday as they lie on the fringe of a cold front sinking southward.
551 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Enjoy the warmer temperatures through this weekend.
/issued 257 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/ Quiet pattern continues to provide warmer than normal to near record heat across our region. Overnight lows will be similar for tonight as we saw last night, maybe a tad warmer as dewpoints may be a degree or two warmer, especially the farther east you go into the Rolling Plains. Upper level flow over the CONUS is progged to buckle late in the weekend with a ridge over the entirety of the Pacific coast and a sharp trough over the Great Plains. A strong cold front will move quickly southward down the lee of the Rockies as the upper pattern amplifies.
Upper trough along the IL/IN border early this morning will continue to dive southeastward today. As the upper trough axis shifts over the region expect rain chances to die down and cloud cover to start scattering out. Slight upper level ridging will remain in place to start the period on Saturday with plenty of dry air in the mid/upper levels.
152 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Water vapor shows broad trof over the northwest/north central CONUS. At the surface, high is centered over the Black Hills with deepening lee trof along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Cold front will move into the region late tonight as upper low takes shape over southern SASK. Trof deepens over the Northern Plains on Saturday, with deep mixing by afternoon tapping into the 35-45kts of 800-700mb layer winds.
304 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 High pressure will remain in control of the regions weather Tonight and through the day Saturday. Southwesterly surface flow will continue to bring warmer than normal temperatures in to the region. High temperatures for this time of year are normally in the middle 70s but with the strong south flow highs today will reach the lower 80s and on Saturday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
(This evening through Saturday) Quiet weather expected to continue tonight through tomorrow, as a weak ridge aloft remains across the southwestern US. Overnight lows and afternoon highs are both expected to be warmer, with highs on Saturday climbing into the lower to mid 90s.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 63 82 66 / 20 10 0 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 80 63 81 64 / 20 10 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 63 81 62 81 63 / 20 10 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 79 60 79 60 / 20 10 0 20 20.
Moving on, upper ridging to briefly build in on Saturday. Under partly cloudy skies temperatures will warm into the lower 80s the next 2 days.
245 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 WV imagery shows the upper-lvl trough hanging tough over The Texas coast, with the ridge over SoCal/Baja nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Weak high pressure at the surface will gradually slide east into Alabama and Georgia allowing a more predominantly southerly flow to develop. Aloft, an upper low will continue to sit across the northern gulf coast which could promote a couple of isolated light showers Saturday although the very dry air above 850 mb is unlikely to allow for anything stronger.
Model moisture profiles suggest that the lower Ark River valley could stand the greatest chance, and thus an LIFR prevailing group was added to KFSM. Highs should be a bit warmer than yesterday, and the going forecast has this covered.
252 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 CIMMS mean-layer analyses place deep and well-stacked ridging to the southeast of the Florida Keys. The KBYX VWP detects southwesterlies from 1 through 10 kft, painting the northwestern flank of the mean-layer ridging. Showers and storms have favored the Gulf side waters for the past several hours, capitalizing on the high theta-e in the lee of the island chain, and the weak convergence between the southwesterlies and the cyclonic flow over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Early this morning, the forecast area remains in southerly low level flow and warm air advection ahead of a frontal boundary and associated trough draped southward from the Red River Valley of the North to near Huron, SD to the NE panhandle. Boundary layer mixing of much warmer mid level air should bring another unseasonably warm day with high temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s, warmest where warm air advection lingers longest in northwest IA. Expect another mostly clear evening with winds becoming light as the surface pressure gradient relaxes amidst passing high pressure. Expect one more day of warmer than normal temperatures on Saturday as westerlies aloft and subtle warm air advection coupled with another approaching weak surface front will do little to change the resident warm and dry airmass.
Sfc analysis reveals weak low pressure over southeast TN this morning. Upper trough along the IL/IN border early this morning will continue to dive southeastward today. As the upper trough axis shifts over the region expect rain chances to die down and cloud cover to start scattering out. Slight upper level ridging will remain in place to start the period on Saturday with plenty of dry air in the mid/upper levels.
Winds become light and variable after sunset as the front treks off to the east, mixing decreases, and high pressure temporarily builds in. The bulk of the extended sees a large scale upper trough building across the eastern U. and an upper ridge building into the western U. This keeps our region in overall northwesterly flow and shuttles in plenty of cooler Canadian air.
Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight, with lows in the low 60s. The start of the weekend will feature above normal temps and gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusty winds could linger for most of Saturday night up until the cold front settles into central Illinois.
Widespread rain showers are expected during this time period, with breezy westerly winds with the higher terrain seeing gusts between 40 to 50 mph, especially along the Continental Divide.
As previously mentioned temperatures will gradually warm over the course of the weekend, as a weak cut-off low will become decoupled over the region. This low will help push wind directions back to the south, and for slight warm-air advection to slowly filter north. Overnight lows should remain in the mid 60s, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 80s.
In addition to the low clouds, some patchy fog is expected by early Sat morning. On Saturday, increasing southerly winds should help to dissipate the low clouds a little faster than today. Partly cloudy skies are expected Sat night, with lows in the lower 60s.
Otherwise, tonight into tomorrow looks to be dry with lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower 60s across the Hill Country to lower 70s along the Rio Grande. Since increased moisture is expected for the Saturday night period, the overnight low temperatures will also be a bit warmer with upper 60s over the Hill Country and 70s rest of South Central Texas.
Precipitation will be terrain driven with the highest amounts in the higher westerly facing slopes.
Although temperatures won't really be any cooler in the wake of the weak front, conditions could be slightly drier with only a very slight chance for showers expected tomorrow.
118 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the weekend.
H5 high pressure ridge over the Appalachians with a weak trough over northern MS Saturday evening. This trough will lift across our area and may wring out a few showers Sun/Sun ngt.
As eastward tracking low pressure moves toward the Carolinas Tonight, a cold front will move into forecast area from the northwest.
Incorporated the cooler MAV guidance for lows in the upper 40s, with low to mid 50s across the northeastern Sandhills. These warm temperatures will remain across western NE as a cold front reaches far northern Nebraska by mid afternoon.
Winds will increase behind the front as the pressure gradient sharply tightens again ahead of another bubble of high pressure. While forecast min RH is in the lower 20s, went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning given the strong winds and dry antecedent conditions.
/GG/ Weak high pressure at the surface will gradually slide east through the region during the weekend. Aloft, weak ridging will likewise quickly shift east in response to a closed low pressure system lifting northeast out of East Texas.
A deepening trough over the Ontario/Great Lakes region and a building ridge over the western US will be the driving features at the upper levels.
243 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Strong lee troughing will affect the area again on Saturday in response to a substantial upper level jet across the northern US. The surface pressure trough axis will push farther to the east Saturday afternoon into the western South Plains. Thicknesses will be up a little higher on Saturday leading to warmer temperatures. will undergo a drastic change late this weekend as a large trough settles across the Plains and into the eastern U. while ridging is amplified across the West Coast.
Satellite and radar show cold front has slowed this morning as it interacts with the Cascades. Showers will linger into tomorrow morning, then subside tomorrow afternoon as eastern Pacific ridge begins to build into the forecast area.
An isolated shower may be possible east and northeast of the Trinity bay area but chances look slim as upper trough moves through the area.
1102 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 CIMMS mean-layer analyses place deep, well-stacked ridging to the southeast of the Florida Keys. Despite the nearby ridging, the sloppy SFC pattern over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico places the Keys in weakly confluent and convergent flow. A southwesterly regime would tend to favor shower and storm developent in the lee of the Lower Keys this afternoon. The highest tides have already occurred across the Lower and Middle Keys, with a trend lower expected for the next several hours.
A weak cold front is sweeping in from the northwest. Broad cyclonic flow develops over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS behind a significant September cold front.
At the surface, cold front extends eastern SD into far NW KS. Cold front isn't expected to move much through Sat afternoon as the upper impulse over the Pacific Northwest quickly moves across the Northern Plains.
At the surface, a cold front is evident from southern MN into western KS. This will start to push the front southward again and we'll see very warm temperatures surge northeastward ahead of the front as the thermal ridge expands northeastward.
Clouds should begin to clear later this evening as a trough, currently over Nashville's area, continues to push towards the east. Only changes made today were to the high temperatures this afternoon.
Expect breezy conditions today and Saturday as a weak trough passes to our north. Model spread continues to be high on the location of the central plains trough in how far south and west to put this feature.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Under the influence of ridging over the western conus, today and tomorrow will be quite warm (hot over western parts of the forecast area), dry, and somewhat breezy.
341 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 As of 20Z Friday afternoon zonal flow was overspreading the central Plains as a stronger northern stream trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Another hot afternoon is on-tap for Saturday as lee troughing across the High Plains continues deepening, allowing WAA to persist through the forecast area. Elsewhere temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s.
Highs should be a bit warmer than yesterday, and the going forecast has this covered.
343 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Expect warm conditions to continue through the weekend with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Low level moisture held south along the Ohio River Valley with ridging from western Pennsylvania through Indiana to Arkansas. Thermal moderation continues with highs into the lower/middle 80s next two days. Discount of EC per outlier solution digging strong cutoff from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley versus developing less intense Upper Great Lakes circulation, as per NAM/GFS.
1224 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Current surface map places cold front through central South Dakota into the Nebraska panhandle. High pressure builds across the area today with dry weather and highs in the 70s. Upper trof swings through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Saturday. with cold front arriving Saturday morning.
Instability is building ahead of this feature as temperatures warm into the lower 80s and dewpoints reside in the mid 60s.
zonal flow aloft will be over the area in between high pressure to our west and southwest and low pressure near North Dakota. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with northeast winds 5 to 15 mph, highest along and south of the interstate.
1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 The first of a series of cold fronts will progress through wrn and ncntl Nebraska today. A second stronger Pacific cold front will drop into nrn Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Temperatures tonight lean on the guidance blend plus bias correction which is cooler than the model blend. The cold front passing through the region today will lift back north tonight opening up the warm sector across the region Saturday.
243 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Stronger westerly winds and tanking RHs into the low teens have been felt across southeastern Wyoming this afternoon.
High temperatures will be similar to today, but a degree or two warmer.
1245 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Mostly dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
At least SCT clouds are likely to linger across southern KY through the evening in closer proximity to an area of weak low pressure. As moisture aloft departs the region, abundant low-level moisture and very light flow through the lower levels will likely yield areas of fog and low stratus. Some dense fog will be possible early Saturday, particularly in the southern half of central KY where clouds have kept temps relatively cooler this afternoon. Brief upper ridging in place along with weak warm advection will result in a dry and warm Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
With the cloud cover and light winds, lows in the lower to mid 50s still look good. Winds will increase behind the front as the pressure gradient sharply tightens again ahead of another bubble of high pressure. While forecast min RH is in the lower 20s, went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning given the strong winds and dry antecedent conditions.
603 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 (This afternoon through Saturday) Under the influence of ridging over the western conus, today and tomorrow will be quite warm (hot over western parts of the forecast area), dry, and somewhat breezy.
As of 20Z Friday afternoon zonal flow was overspreading the central Plains as a stronger northern stream trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Another hot afternoon is on-tap for Saturday as lee troughing across the High Plains continues deepening, allowing WAA to persist through the forecast area. Elsewhere temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s.
Deepest moisture on Sat is again forecast south of Orlando with only slightly cooler (-6C) temps aloft (500 mb).
Weak and erratic low-mid level flow will dominate through the weekend, thanks to a broad area of high pressure overhead.
The forecast is on track with temperatures falling into the low to upper 60s. Otherwise, tonight into tomorrow looks to be dry with lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to low 80s.
403 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Drier cooler air move into the region overnight decreasing showers and winds for the region.
Water vapor shows broad trof over the northwest/north central CONUS. At the surface, high is centered over the Black Hills with deepening lee trof along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Cold front will move into the region late tonight as upper low takes shape over southern SASK. Trof deepens over the Northern Plains on Saturday, with deep mixing by afternoon tapping into the 35-45kts of 800-700mb layer winds.
655 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 High pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the weekend.
Winds remain on the breezier side into the evening as the cold front clips northern Nevada overnight tonight. High temperatures over the weekend shouldnât break out of the low 70s, but a building ridge into the region lets our weather warm up into the 80s during the week.
Skies across the area remain mostly cloudy as temperatures hover in the low to upper 60s. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 63 83 66 / 10 10 0 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 79 63 81 64 / 10 10 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 62 80 62 81 64 / 10 10 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 78 60 79 61 / 20 10 0 20 10.
607 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Quiet weather expected to continue tonight through tomorrow, as a weak ridge aloft remains across the southwestern US. Overnight lows and afternoon highs are both expected to be warmer, with highs on Saturday climbing into the lower to mid 90s.
523 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Water vapor shows broad trof over the northwest/north central CONUS. At the surface, high is centered over the Black Hills with deepening lee trof along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Cold front will move into the region late tonight as upper low takes shape over southern SASK. Trof deepens over the Northern Plains on Saturday, with deep mixing by afternoon tapping into the 35-45kts of 800-700mb layer winds.
251 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Drier cooler air move into the region overnight decreasing showers and winds for the region.
Showers will continue to spread across the area this evening ahead of an approaching cold front situated in WA/OR. The showers will occur mainly in the higher elevations of the north (Baker County and the Boise/West Central Mountains). Temperatures will be much cooler with valley highs mainly in the 60s.
554 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE A strong upper level ridge in place over NM will continue VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs.
548 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Stronger westerly winds and tanking RHs into the low teens have been felt across southeastern Wyoming this afternoon.
740 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Expect warm conditions to continue through the weekend with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Low level moisture held south along the Ohio River Valley with ridging from western Pennsylvania through Indiana to Arkansas. Thermal moderation continues with highs into the lower/middle 80s next two days. Discount of EC per outlier solution digging strong cutoff from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley versus developing less intense Upper Great Lakes circulation, as per NAM/GFS.
High pressure will remain in control of the regions weather Tonight and through the day Saturday. Southwesterly surface flow will continue to bring warmer than normal temperatures in to the region. High temperatures for this time of year are normally in the middle 70s but with the strong south flow highs today will reach the lower 80s and on Saturday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper-lvl trough hanging tough over The Texas coast, with the ridge over SoCal/Baja nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
/issued 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/ Strong lee troughing will affect the area again on Saturday in response to a substantial upper level jet across the northern US. The surface pressure trough axis will push farther to the east Saturday afternoon into the western South Plains. Thicknesses will be up a little higher on Saturday leading to warmer temperatures. will undergo a drastic change late this weekend as a large trough settles across the Plains and into the eastern U. while ridging is amplified across the West Coast.
Patchy fog may develop from from west central AR into SE OK under the last bit of influence from sfc ridging though coverage and density will be less then previous nights.
251 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas, with cold front moving through central Montana/Wyoming. Deep upper trof sets up over the eastern CONUS for much of week with upper ridge along the west coast. Periodic dry cold fronts with gusty northwest winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions at times. VFR conds should persist through the TAF period, though brief MVFR cigs cannot be ruled out behind the cold front over higher elevations of the hills. Cold front will move through this morning, with strong northwest winds developing behind the front. Another round of very strong northwest winds are expected Sunday, but temps should be cooler and relative humidity slightly higher.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will help guide dry weather conditions across the region for today along with lighter winds when compared with yesterday. LLWS: There is a chance that OLF and GDV could see some low level wind shear issues between 6am and 9am Saturday morning ahead of the cold front. With the cold front Saturday, expect west winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
By Sunday evening, we will say hello to our ridiculously resilient ridge, which will be taking up residence for some time. The region will start to feel the influence of the offshore ridge Sunday as a warming and drying trend begin with clear skies and calm winds.
Incorporated the cooler MAV guidance for lows in the upper 40s, with low to mid 50s across the northeastern Sandhills. These warm temperatures will remain across western NE as a cold front reaches far northern Nebraska by mid afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will move across the Northern Plains Saturday night, not yet reaching western NE until Sunday morning. An upper trough digging across MT and WY. A deep upper level trough will persist across Hudson Bay Canada south into the eastern U. flanked by an upper ridge across the west.
Today Through Sunday Night A weak upper level closed low is centered to the south of AR early this Sat morning. have temps a bit cooler than near term model guidance. the upper low will lift NE into SERN AR. this upper low will lift NE of the area. increasing SRLY flow at the SFC will allow for warmer temps for Sun. A cold front will drop SE into the state for Sun night.
Winds will slowly veer around from the SE-NW at the far western terminals by this afternoon as a sfc trof develops INVOF the TX/NM state line. /issued 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper-lvl trough hanging tough over The Texas coast, with the ridge over SoCal/Baja nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Today's models now eject the trough NE to the MS Valley by 06Z Sunday, and this will allow thicknesses to increase closer to home Sat/Sun. This all comes to a lamentable end Sunday night with the arrival of a strong cold front, the strength of which models have increased considerably over the past 24 hours.
At the surface, cold front extends eastern SD into far NW KS. Cold front isn't expected to move much through Sat afternoon as the upper impulse over the Pacific Northwest quickly moves across the Northern Plains. This will allow the cold front to surge south on Sunday with showers and storms likely along it. Highs on Mon will be in the 60s, which will be around 30 degrees cooler than highs today and Sat. By Tue afternoon sharp upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley with strong northwest flow over the Plains.