Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WINDS WILL DIMINISH/VEER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. /ISSUED 408 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016/ DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND DURING MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY THIS EVENING. MONTANA IS CURRENTLY BENEATH A BRISK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS ALMOST TO THE UT/NV BORDER AT THIS TIME WITH AXIS OF THE WEAKENING UPSTREAM TROF CROSSING CA. SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS CLEARED SKIES OVER THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS HAVE PLUNGED THIS EVE IN THE SNOW COVERED WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH LOCAL FOG BEING REPORTED ALREADY AT DELTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AS THE UPSTREAM TROF ARRIVES.
1140 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016 SURFACE MAP SHOWING LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE INCHES TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. BUT LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING WORKING IN ACROSS MN/IA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS MID CLOUD RACES IN AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/DAKOTAS. LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MIXING IN THE SECTOR OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED IN OUR AREA. CL WHILE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
RADAR HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER COTEAU REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS AND ISSUED A PRE-FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER SNOW CHANCES PRIOR TO 12Z.
203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
The only real item of concern is how quickly skies will clear as high pressure begins to build into the area. A large area of low clouds blankets WI/MI/IN/IL/MO and eastern IA this afternoon with an upper level trof settling into the Midwest. Forecast models track low pressure ne into central Quebec by dawn Thu while upper level trof axis moves into the MS river valley. This should keep low clouds in place over much of CWA tonight with some decrease clouds west and SW CWA later tonight with surface ridging into mid MS valley by Thu morning. Brisk west winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph will veer WNW and diminish to 8-14 mph by overnight as Canadian high pressure over the central Rockies ridges toward the mid MS river valley by dawn Thu.
Combo of clearing skies and light winds within an approaching low-level ridge axis will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper teens across most of the region tonight. Passage of tonight's low-level ridge to the east on Thursday will bring winds around from the southwest and allow temperatures to rise into the 40s across most of the area.
206 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE U. A COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
WV Imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning eastward across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies eastward into the Western High Plains. sunny and warmer. Migratory high pressure ridge builds into Kansas, with the ridge axis near the KS/CO border by 6 pm. Meanwhile, melting snow will hold temperatures down across the northern zones, with Scott/Lane/Trego counties struggling to get to the freezing mark.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
/ISSUED 242 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/ POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.
923 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016 STORM SYS MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN AND INTO OUR REGION.
1019 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
343 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST TODAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY AIR MASS, TEMPS WILL TUMBLE TO FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
AS THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE E CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC BASINS. AND WITH THE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER COMES THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST SIDE OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. OTHERWISE COOLER CONDITIONS AS MORE SUN RETURN ON THU. A RETURN OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE A RIDGING WEST/TROUGHING EAST SETUP.
101 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MILD AIR LINGERING AND MIXING WILL BE WEAK DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUR LOOKS DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA - BUT THE LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL HOLD ON INTO THURS NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS AND THEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEST ENERGY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHSN DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND IN THE LAURELS.
217 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS FROM WESTERLY WINDS BOOST THE LOW LEVEL WARMING.
317 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 A COOLER AND MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS PARADE OF TROUGHS THAT MOVE ALONG A POLAR JET THAT APPEARS TO MOVE EQUATORWARD AND MERGING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AT TIMES. IN FACT, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA MERGED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. HOWEVER, DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, CAA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH (NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE) TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
1147 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER INLAND LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT DECELERATING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. WHICH LIES BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE FL BIG BEND HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE PAST HOUR. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIPS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AS RAINFALL AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WATERS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND BRING ONLY SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA.
106 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY.
VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER DUE TO 925-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END BY 06Z WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
951 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING SOME ACCUMULATION WILL LOST ON WARM SURFACE TEMPS. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL BE AROUND ONE INCH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (UP TO 2 INCHES) IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late this afternoon and into the evening hours. We'll have some morning stratus around but as the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way to some sun by afternoon.
A 1035MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE ROSBY WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST.
1033 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NORTH OF THE PINE TREE STATE WILL BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO DOWNEAST MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING. THE LARGEST THREAT FURTHER INLAND IS ALONG THE HIGHER HILLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY DEPART AFTER 12Z. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.
By sunrise, temperatures will drop into the teens for portions of southeast NM and the higher terrain while other locations will see lows in the low to mid 20s. This warming trend will continue through the weekend with lows near or below freezing most areas.
909 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MILD AIR LINGERING AND MIXING WILL BE WEAK DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUR LOOKS DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA - BUT THE LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL HOLD ON INTO THURS NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS AND THEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEST ENERGY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHSN DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND IN THE LAURELS.
1106 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NORTH OF THE PINE TREE STATE WILL BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO DOWNEAST MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING. THE LARGEST THREAT FURTHER INLAND IS ALONG THE HIGHER HILLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY DEPART AFTER 12Z. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.
1139 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016 DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED EAST OF OUR AREA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST TOMORROW WITH INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND THAT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST WARM UP BACK TO JUST SHY OF THE FREEZING MARK IN SNOW COVERED AREAS. MITCHELL COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW IN THAT AREA.
TO EXIT A LITTLE LATER THAN THE HIGHER CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY BE OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY AS RIDGING QUICKLY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE. THIS IS BECAUSE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WAITING NOW FOR THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS/BANDED LIGHT SNOW WORKING DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA IN THIS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE PRAIRIE COTEAU TERRAIN FEATURE WILL ALSO LIKELY AIDE IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LIGHT DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATING OUT OF THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
/ISSUED 923 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/ STORM SYS MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN AND INTO OUR REGION.
SOME THIN CIRRUS WAS EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THIS CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WITH TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ND INTO CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE REGION. WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF. BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK.
A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY IS CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN A LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOP STRONG WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE OVERNIGHT. WIND FORECAST TRICKY OVER THE WEST AS THE TROUGH DOES SEND QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY INTO IDAHO AND THIS MAY CAUSE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
230 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016 High pressure advancing into Illinois from the west will push the remainder of the low clouds into Indiana shortly after sunrise. A low pressure system approaching Wisconsin today will drag a band of clouds into northern Illinois this afternoon. As the high pressure center edges closer to IL, the pressure gradient will continue to diminish, helping to curtail the wind gusts, which will be a nice change from yesterday's blustery conditions. Broad upper trough covers a large part of the central U.
1109 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016 Low clouds rotating around the exiting cyclone over the Great Lakes will clear from west to east late today and tonight.
835 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARM.
1127 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS.
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIDGES AS THE COLD AIR FORCES THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW GROWTH ZONE TOWARD THE SURFACE AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW.
A SECONDARY TROF AS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE OVERALL WEATHER MINUS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AGAIN WHICH WILL CALM WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS IN ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S AREA WIDE. /ALDRICH LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MID- SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. BOUNDED ON BOTH SIDES BY AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PUSHING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL BE WAITING FOR A FINAL BATCH OF ENERGY DURING THURSDAY TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COVINGTON COUNTY TONIGHT AS CURRENT TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT THE DOWNSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LEFT OUT TSTMS EXCEPT FOR OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUES GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
ANY LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS BEING SHEARED TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIDGES AS THE COLD AIR FORCES THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW GROWTH ZONE TOWARD THE SURFACE AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW.
THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1021 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016 WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WIND WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
815 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUR LOOKS DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA - BUT THE LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL HOLD ON.
THE SYSTEM'S FRONT AND MAIN PRECIP BAND EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER BASIN SOUTH TO THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, AND EAST TO IDAHO.
SNOW RATIOS APPEAR TO BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO AT 17:1 WHICH COULD LEAD TO 6 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
A BROAD CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that extends from Canada to Mexico. Smaller scale pieces of energy rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado. Lows still fall into the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where heavier snow fell. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.
TROUGH SHOULD EXIT EASTERN CWA IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAW TODAY.
THE STRONG CYCLONE THAT HAD BEEN THE "STAR OF THE SHOW" THE PAST 2 DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO & WAS FAST APPROACHING THE EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC BORDER. A STRONG/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG & JUST E OF THE PACIFIC COAST FROM NRN CA TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SUFFICIENT LOWER- DECK MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE N INTO CENTRAL & ESPECIALLY EASTERN KS AHEAD OF A SE-MOVING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EAST OF THE TRUNPIKE FRI EVENING.
Broad high pressure extended from the Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were mainly in the teens across the area. Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with winds relatively light through the night. Lows tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THIS AREA AS A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MUCH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER ALABAMA. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SPREADS FROM TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN CONUS.
845 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016 WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD DROP INTO THE ZERO TO -12F DEGREE RANGE WHILE SEVERAL SPOTS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROP TO 20 BELOW OR COLDER. BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE TROUGH IS GOING TO MOVE OVER THE STATE AS AN OPEN WAVE. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN RE-FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS LATER TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARD KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON EASTERN COLORADO.
818 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NORTH OF THE PINE TREE STATE WILL BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO DOWNEAST MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY. KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING. THE LARGEST THREAT FURTHER INLAND IS ALONG THE HIGHER HILLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY DEPART AFTER 12Z. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AT THIS HOUR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND IS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CONTINUED FRESH WINDS. A TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE THE LOWEST OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.
933 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING. AS IT GETS INCREASINGLY HUNG UP IN THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BACK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO FORM. BUT THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THU EVENING. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1050 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY.
1206 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NORTH OF THE PINE TREE STATE WILL BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO DOWNEAST MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT THE HIGH WIND WRNGS ALONG THE COAST AND THE WIND ADV FOR NRN HANCOCK AND CTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING. THE LARGEST THREAT FURTHER INLAND IS ALONG THE HIGHER HILLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY DEPART AFTER 12Z. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.
AS THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE E CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC BASINS. AND WITH THE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER COMES THE COOLER/DRIER AIR.