Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1152 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020 The classic Southwest monsoon pattern continues today as an upper level trough over the West Coast and an upper level ridge over the Southern Plains continue to feed a plume of moisture originating in the tropics north over the Four Corners region. The difference today is that cloud cover and showers associated with this plume have persisted over much of UT/CO border region all day, maintaining cooler temperatures and more stable conditions. The passage of an upper level trough to our north Saturday night will steer drier air across the north for Sunday, but the tropical plume will remain in place across the south.
229 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Cold front currently moving through NE Montana has produced some thunderstorms early this morning. An upper level trough also moves through the forecast area this afternoon which will help keep chances for thunderstorms going into this afternoon. NW winds behind the cold front will be strong enough in the late morning and this afternoon for a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler today and slightly below normal for highs today. High pressure builds into the area late this evening diminishing the winds.
Sunday continues to look dry and a few degrees warmer across the region.
332 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure will settle over the region today and tonight.
240 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Weak energy aloft within a large upper ridge over the region will keep typical July warmth and humidity in place along with a chance of diurnally enhanced convection.
This will come ahead of a cold front sinking into the area Sunday night which could lead to heavy rainfall producing localized flooding as well as the chance for a few strong to isolated severe storms. The upper level ridge axis that moved over the forecast area yesterday will remain over the area today keeping conditions hot and dry. Highs will again rise into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Sunday the upper level ridge across the area will become flattened as a upper level trough moves from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front towards the area during the evening. However, out ahead of the front Sunday, modest WAA will continue to remain in the lower 90. Sunday evening the cold front will drop into northern Missouri.
A trough will persist over NV through the rest of today before shifting westward on Sunday. The southerly flow will become moist with the trough shift on Sunday as monsoonal moisture infiltrates that silver state anew. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with highs on Sunday being in the mid to upper 90s.
Rain chcs rmn in the fcst again today, with the highest PoPs noted acrs the SE half of the area. It will be another rather warm day, with highs ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Models indc a weakness/inverted trof in the upper flow setting up along the MS River.
Week upper-level low wobbles over central/southern California, while ill-defined ridge remains centered around New Mexico.
428 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 The trough continues to sweep across southern Canada and Montana today, which will drag a weak cold front into the far notrhern counties of Wyoming. This cold front will have little effect on temperatures statewide today, with lower elevations in the 80s and 90s, and the higher elevations in the 70s. With the trough continuing east along the US/CA border tonight into Sunday, weak ridging will build back across the spine of the Rockies. This ridge isn't overly strong, so showers will again be a possibility, mainly along the higher elevations.
425 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure will slowly build back over Eastern Washington and North Idaho this weekend.
/issued 340 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/ A 594 dam high centered over W OK will expand wwd today shunting convection toward the higher terrain mainly west of the Pecos River, altho isold showers or storms will also be possible across the far E Permian Basin per HRRR and NAM12.
Upper level ridging will continue to hold over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through the weekend.
Central Alabama will be under the influence of a large scale upper ridge that extends from the Plains states eastward to the mid- Atlantic states. Deeper moisture over the Gulf of Mexico will not make much headway northward due to the presence of the ridge, and rain chances will be near normal values for late July, with mainly diurnally driven storms. Models indicate a patch of higher mid level moisture over northeast Alabama that gets wedged between the bottom side of the aforementioned ridge and southeast flow on the eastern side of tropical cyclone Hanna.
1059 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Building high pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather for the weekend.
Upper trough to our north will bring slightly cooler than normal temperatures to our CWA today.
Weak energy aloft within a large upper ridge over the region will keep typical July warmth and humidity in place along with a chance of diurnally enhanced convection.
633 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 332 AM CDT Continued quiet but increasingly warm and humid conditions will be in place today and most of Sunday before shower and thunderstorm chances increase later on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. As broad ridging over the Great Lakes pushes east, locally we move into the warm and moist return flow on its western flank today and more so on Sunday.
443 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 The upper-level ridge remains over much of central CONUS. A trough continues to deepen over California helping to provide southwest flow to the Gulf of California and the southwest CONUS. Tropical cyclone Hanna is expected to make landfall today over south Texas. The aforementioned tropical cyclone will provide some subsidence over the FA. Kendrick High pressure centered across OK/KS looks to keep TC Hannah on a westward track this morning with broad southwesterly flow just west of the CWFA.
Easterly flow will push the highest chances further inland through the day, as the diffuse east coast seabreeze pushes quickly westward. High temperatures reaching the low 90s inland and the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast.
The same high pressure ridge that is Steering Hanna into South and Deep South Texas will continue to steer moisture and unsettled weather into South Texas through early in the week.
/Issued 323 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/ Upper ridge remains over the Southern Plains this morning, with the center expected to be placed a bit farther to the north today.
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of western and central North Dakota today and this evening. While mean wind vectors generally parallel to the initiating boundary may favor messy storm modes, this may be mitigated by a neutral to positive mid-level height trend through the day as the upper level low remains to the north.
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Subtropical ridge extending across the southeast US will provide moist and deep easterly flow across our area through this evening. A ridge axis of high pressure north of the waters will reside in place through the weekend with east and southeast winds.
A passing upper level system and it's attendant cold front is traversing the region this morning. Otherwise, slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry conditions are anticipated today. However, it appears that there will be a round of showers and thunderstorms over the southwest this afternoon and evening as the cold front gets hung up down there. The entire CWA is expected to stay dry on Sunday, with temperatures continuing to run slightly below normal as a northwesterly flow aloft takes shape ahead of an approaching ridge of high pressure.
/issued 443 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/ The upper-level ridge remains over much of central CONUS. A trough continues to deepen over California helping to provide southwest flow to the Gulf of California and the southwest CONUS. Tropical cyclone Hanna is expected to make landfall today over south Texas. The aforementioned tropical cyclone will provide some subsidence over the FA. Kendrick High pressure centered across OK/KS looks to keep TC Hanna on a westward track this morning with broad southwesterly flow just west of the CWFA.
Water vapor imagery and vorticity analysis show a sheared trough axis over north AL and east-northeast along the spine of the Smoky Mtns.
Warmer weather is forecast over the weekend, especially inland, but for the most part temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. The synoptic pattern hasn't changed much over the past 24 hours, with a weak upper trough persisting over California. However, the trough axis has shifted slightly to our east - a subtle change that has resulted in the marine layer depth at Fort Ord decreasing from 2000 feet yesterday to 1500 feet currently. This reduction in the depth of the marine layer, in conjunction with an expected decrease in onshore flow today, will mean warmer temperatures in most areas, especially inland.
911 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure will settle over the region today and tonight.
653 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Building high pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather for the weekend.
605 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Upper level high pressure will remain centered over central and eastern Kansas today. Lows tonight will again be in the lower to middle 70s over most of the area. That upper level ridge will retrograde a bit on Sunday with strong upper low pressure also beginning to move east across the Canadian prairies. We are not seeing much of a change regarding sensible weather across the Ozarks with highs once again in the lower to perhaps middle 90s.
Showers and storms have lingered across the trough axis and along residual outflow boundaries, in the presence of a LLJ this morning. The upper-level low that will be responsible for flattening our heat-encapsulated upper- level ridge by Sunday will also usher in a cold front this evening. Due to the high instability and high moisture through the column, any thunderstorms have the potential to become strong to severe and produce heavy rain, though confidence is not particularly high in the severe threat given relatively sub-par shear. A cooler and much less humid airmass moves in on Sunday behind the frontal passage, and most should be precipitation-free as high pressure builds. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected.
631 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure will settle over the region today and tonight.
924 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Cold front stretches from Crosby to Williston to Beach, arching back west through Baker MT. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of western and central North Dakota today and this evening. While mean wind vectors generally parallel to the initiating boundary may favor messy storm modes, this may be mitigated by a neutral to positive mid-level height trend through the day as the upper level low remains to the north.
807 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Building high pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather for the weekend.
235 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 A weak trough extending southward from the eastern Canadian Maritimes to the New England region continued retreat further to the north, as upper level ridging reestablishes itself over the eastern lower-48. Night time low temperatures should cool into the low/mid 70s with light winds. Upper ridging more in place over the eastern CONUS and another very warm to hot day with sufficient moisture, will bring isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Similar high temperatures are forecast for Sun, rising into the lower 90s.
The H5 ridge, currently centered over NC OK/SC KS, is forecast to retrograde back to the West this upcoming week.
201 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Upper low traversing east across central Sask today is expected to move across Manitoba Sunday.
131 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure will settle over the region today and tonight.
This afternoon through Sunday night The trough continues to sweep across southern Canada and Montana today, which will drag a weak cold front into the far notrhern counties of Wyoming. With the trough continuing east along the US/CA border tonight into Sunday, weak ridging will build back across the spine of the Rockies. This ridge isn't overly strong, so showers will again be a possibility, mainly along the higher elevations.
For Sunday and Sunday night, a cold front will approach the Oklahoma Panhandle late Sunday afternoon. The cold front is slated to move across the OK Panhandle and most of the northern TX Panhandle Sunday night, with an increasing threat for showers and tstms across most of the area except the far southeast TX Panhandle.
Expect highs in the lower 90s each day with heat index values in the triple digits. A trough builds in over the Great Lakes region. A ridge amplifies over the Rockies.
High temperatures will reach the lower 90s, and with dewpoints in the 70s, expect heat indices to top out in the 98-103 range for most areas.
211 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA on western fringe of large H5 ridge centered over southeast Kansas.
Focus then shifts to potential convection overnight into Sunday night as a slow moving cold front moves through the region. The cold front will get a decent push into the area Sunday from a reinforcing upper wave coming out of the Rockies. This will result in cooler temps in the 80s behind the front, but still hot and oppressive ahead of the front, and southwest IA/southeast NE could again reach heat index criteria near 105.
A cold front will pass through the region late this afternoon, through tonight, and into the morning hours leading to drier conditions and cooler temperatures for Sunday. The passing cold front could provide enough forcing to produce a few thunderstorms this afternoon mainly in central or north central South Dakota. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 80s. The work week begins with northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface.
Temps could be a touch warmer tomorrow as a cold front approaches the CWA from the north so will let the night crew decide on possible heat advisory for tomorrow afternoon.
1045 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 The trough continues to sweep across southern Canada and Montana today, which will drag a weak cold front into the far notrhern counties of Wyoming. This cold front will have little effect on temperatures statewide today, with lower elevations in the 80s and 90s, and the higher elevations in the 70s. With the trough continuing east along the US/CA border tonight into Sunday, weak ridging will build back across the spine of the Rockies. This ridge isn't overly strong, so showers will again be a possibility, mainly along the higher elevations.
There is a better chance later Sunday when a cold front slides south across Wisconsin.
With south winds tonight and lots of moisture in the air the overnight lows will struggle to fall into the low 70s.
336 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Upper ridge axis has shifted just east of Upper Michigan. Weak cold front will slowly cross the area on Sunday but it still will be a very warm and humid day. Locations not see a cooling shower or storm will see temperatures not falling much below the low/mid 70s.
340 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across Nebraska due to an upper level ridge positioned off to the east over the Midwest. The low level jet will increase this evening, though current thinking is that it will focus east of the area. Beyond this weekend, an upper level ridge will amplify over the central CONUS and lead to a break in above average temperatures. Flow aloft will transition to more northwesterly with the building of the ridge, and should help to shunt the deeper moisture southward.
/issued 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020/ Subtropical ridge extending across the southeast US will provide moist and deep easterly flow across our area through this evening. A ridge axis of high pressure north of the waters will reside in place through the weekend with east and southeast winds.
115 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 The low clouds have taken their time to scour out. The next chance for thunderstorms will be tied to the advancement of a cold front (tied to the strong system well north in Canada). Cooler and drier airmass will have advected into the region. Guidance is in decent agreement and confidence is toward the higher end of the spectrum. Upper level low will propagate eastward across Canada, well north of the region. With a much cooler and drier airmass along with ridging across the region, anticipate a relatively stable weather pattern. Return flow and warmer temperatures anticipated by the end of the week, although still some uncertainty how quickly this may happen or if it will happen at all.
With the center of the ridge axis to our west becoming elongated and building east, high temperatures in many spots will warm a degree or two higher than Saturday's values, into the lower 90s.
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Building high pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather for the weekend.
The upper ridge will retrograde slowly, but subsidence will continue.
Breaks in the cloud cover should allow the low-levels to destabilize, supporting a few stronger updrafts. As mentioned above, the higher rainfall amounts will be confined to areas where bands of heavier precipitation develops.
Most of the next work week will be dominated by upper trofiness extending S/SW from a closed low over James Bay.
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 332 AM CDT Continued quiet but increasingly warm and humid conditions will be in place today and most of Sunday before shower and thunderstorm chances increase later on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. As broad ridging over the Great Lakes pushes east, locally we move into the warm and moist return flow on its western flank today and more so on Sunday.
Slight weakness in upper ridge to continue to weaken slightly as ridge over the SW CONUS and western Atlantic build. SNELSON High pressure and weak steering aloft will continue to drive the afternoon convective pattern similar to the one we have seen for the better part of a month now.
TFJ Cold front currently moving through NE Montana has produced some thunderstorms early this morning. An upper level trough also moves through the forecast area this afternoon which will help keep chances for thunderstorms going into this afternoon. NW winds behind the cold front will be strong enough in the late morning and this afternoon for a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler today and slightly below normal for highs today. High pressure builds into the area late this evening diminishing the winds.
Convection should be further east than yesterday as the upper level trough axis and drier air shifts slightly east this afternoon and should limit the instability. Week upper-level low wobbles over central/southern California, while ill-defined ridge remains centered around New Mexico.
For tonight will be watching for an uptick in showers/thunderstorms as a cold front slowly makes its way toward the region and as we are located on the southeast periphery of increasing low level 850mb jet/moisture transport. Otherwise, overnight lows will only make it down into the low to mid 70s with those dewpoints in the 70s. The cold front will continue to push south into the area Sunday for increased shower/thunderstorm potential. With expected shower/storm activity/cloud cover, will hold off on heat headlines as temperatures may be cooler than today. The cold front finally pushes through the area Sunday night, taking the thunderstorms and uncomfortable heat with it.
222 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 An upper ridge extends from the southern U. The hurricane will push into northern Mexico on Sunday and may contribute to rain/storms for the Lower Trans Pecos southward to the Rio Grande.
Humid ridging will continue to provide diurnal convection this evening and again Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure off the Carolina coast and another centered near St. Slow moving nature of convection thanks to the weak steering between the two high pressure maxima means that locally heavy rain is possible in spots.
More technically, a large upper level ridge centered near Kentucky has been weakened on its southern side by Hurricane Hanna.
Moisture expected to deepen ahead of this trough/front bringing fairly high pops to the area Tue.
So we will keep highs around 90 and lows in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will slowly build back over Eastern Washington and North Idaho this weekend.
Upper ridge will remain over the area tonight thru Sunday. This is when the surface cold front, associated with the northern stream upper trof will focus convective chances across central Kansas.
222 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 The latest water vapor images show a ridge over the central United States with an upper low over Saskatchewan. Temperatures will drop back to near average behind the cold front.
1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Upper level high pressure will remain centered over central and eastern Kansas today. Lows tonight will again be in the lower to middle 70s over most of the area. That upper level ridge will retrograde a bit on Sunday with strong upper low pressure also beginning to move east across the Canadian prairies. We are not seeing much of a change regarding sensible weather across the Ozarks with highs once again in the lower to perhaps middle 90s.
Dry, mainly sunny and seasonably warm conditions are expected Sunday for the entire region before much warmer temperatures develop for the week ahead.
Regardless, clouds will increase and temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.
Expect highs in the the lower 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s by the mid afternoon as surface dew points reach the upper 60s to near 70F.
254 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Subtropical ridge resides across the southeast US for the rest of the weekend as an inverted mid level trough over the Bahamas this afternoon shift to over FL Sun. On Sun the increased moisture along with the mid level trough will enhance coverage with late morning convection spreading northward during the afternoon. From Mon through next Sat: The mid level trough lifts northward and dampens out Mon as the subtropical ridge eases southward. By Tue the subtropical ridge is across FL and over the Gulf. As the ridge axis settles down over us. High pressure ridge axis currently north of the waters drops into north FL by Tue then central FL midweek where it meanders with a relaxing gradient.
609 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across Nebraska due to an upper level ridge positioned off to the east over the Midwest. The low level jet will increase this evening, though current thinking is that it will focus east of the area. Beyond this weekend, an upper level ridge will amplify over the central CONUS and lead to a break in above average temperatures. Flow aloft will transition to more northwesterly with the building of the ridge, and should help to shunt the deeper moisture southward.
High pressure north of the region will slowly shift southward over the next several days, with fairly light winds enhancing along the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.
A weak trough extending southward from the eastern Canadian Maritimes to the New England region continued retreat further to the north, as upper level ridging reestablishes itself over the eastern lower-48. Night time low temperatures should cool into the low/mid 70s with light winds. Upper ridging more in place over the eastern CONUS and another very warm to hot day with sufficient moisture, will bring isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Similar high temperatures are forecast for Sun, rising into the lower 90s.