Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will deliver a slight chance of snow showers on Sunday to the White Mountain region, with colder temperatures and gusty north winds.
Many locations north and west received a half to two inches of rain last evening with a lifting warm front. This warm front will continue tracking northeast today/tonight as a tight SFC/LL low crosses the Great Lakes region. Movement of these lows will drag its associated cold front across the mid-state this evening, into the late night. ML/UL flow not especially good and along with cold front it will take some time for deep moisture/widespread rain to move out as well. Another weak front and upper trough will move through Thu night into Fri night but not more than a few showers at best are expected with these features at this point. A cold front will drop down into the area tonight and that will spell widespread pcpn reduced CIGs/VSBYs at all sites.
414 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A broad area of high pressure, located in the North Atlantic, is currently building to the south. This low pressure system will be relatively mild in terms of impacts to the area.
Our best confidence is that mainly the higher elevations will see the best chance over northwest Montana.
Cold front to north will press through KHOB/KMAF this AM around 14-15z with N shift. /issued 334 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/ Upper ridge giving way to trough diving down across UT and CO overnight and into AZ by morning. This trough will develop into a closed low as it slowly tracks across NM today and tonight moving across W TX Monday.
For KAEX, carried VCTS from 18Z ahead of a cold front that will enter the area on Monday. Down along the gulf coast the usual pattern that we have been experiencing continues with morning temperatures in the lower 70s inland to upper 60s at the beaches. Interesting climate side note: At the lowest, temperatures this morning at all our climate sites ranged from 69 to 72. So far this morning, the lowest temp for KAEX was 72.
334 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Upper ridge giving way to trough diving down across UT and CO overnight and into AZ by morning. This trough will develop into a closed low as it slowly tracks across NM today and tonight moving across W TX Monday.
(This evening through Monday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was situated just south of a San Angelo to Brady line. An upper level low will approach from the west tonight, and move across the area on Monday. (Monday night through next Sunday) On Monday night the upper low will move northeast, from the northwestern part of Texas into far southern Oklahoma. With north winds diminishing, expect temperatures to drop into the upper 20s for lows across the western half of our area, and into the lower to mid 30s in the eastern counties.
Tonight and Monday A low pressure system over northeast Wisconsin will quickly pull away from the region late this afternoon.
220 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front will continue to move through the area late this afternoon through this evening, bringing additional showers and isolated thunderstorms to eastern and southeastern Illinois. Once the front moves through, dry and cooler weather is expected through the week. A cold front will continue to move through the area late this afternoon through this evening, bringing additional showers and isolated thunderstorms to eastern and southeastern Illinois. Temps will drop to below freezing tonight with mostly clear skies across most of the CWA. Though temps tomorrow will be cooler than last couple of days, they will still reach back to around normal. in the lower to middle 40s.
A cold front will enter the area tonight and into the overnight hours.
This afternoon cold air advecting in the area behind a departing cold front have held temperatures near 40 across the northwestern CWA to the mid 50s across the southern CWA. High pressure will remain in control through Monday night.
In terms of rain, a cold front will advance over the local area beginning late tonight into early Monday morning. With the approach and passage of the cold front, winds will shift to be more easterly near the coast and more northerly north of Highway 84 by mid-morning Monday, ranging from 5-10 knots.
Locally gusty offshore winds at some of the highest peaks will continue to subside this morning. Given the cooler air mass above 1500ft, will see some of the highest peaks only get up into the 50s and low 60s F. Sunday night offers some changes as a low pressure begins to move parallel to the coast. Models, ensemble members, and the national blend have been trending to have this low stay far enough off shore that it won't offer rain chances. The low will be close enough to provide more southerly winds. This will cause slightly cooler conditions along south-facing coasts for Monday afternoon, but the more interior areas will be unaffected.
150 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Upper trough axis stretches from central MN through the Four Corners region, with a ridge building over the west coast. Surface map has a ridge over the Dakotas, and a trough over MT, resulting in westerly winds across our CWA. Temperatures are rising into the 20s across the snow-covered areas, with northwestern SD a bit warmer, in the 30s. Upper trough will split tonight with the northern portion sweeping into the Great Lakes region, and the Four Corners low slowly tracking across the southern states. Meanwhile, the west coast upper ridge will shift eastward, resulting in warmer/drier weather for us.
A cold front will sweep through tonight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 57 39 55 43 / 100 90 10 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 54 36 54 40 / 100 90 0 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 52 55 35 54 40 / 100 90 0 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 53 30 53 36 / 100 90 0 10 60 TN.
Main upper low has been digging down into southern Canada, with some decent snow currently going over southeastern Saskatchewan. Both CAMs and the larger scale models have been trending further south with the track of the snow, coming down over Fargo when previous forecasts have more along the Highway 2 corridor.
241 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Rain showers this evening followed breezy and cooler conditions. While it will be cooler on Monday compared to recent days, look for a mid week warmup and dry conditions this week. A line of rain showers is struggling to develop at this time ahead of an incoming cold front, on the poleward edge of a departing Pacific moisture plume. The cold front will sweep through from northwest to southeast from about 00z to 03z, resulting in breezy and cooler conditions. As such, paired with breezy conditions, I do not expect refreezing of roads to be an issue.
High pressure centered over central to western Idaho and low pressure swinging south lee-side of the Northern Rockies is producing a tight pressure gradient that conducive to strong west winds along the foothills west of Billings. High pressure will shift to be more centered in Yellowstone National Park tonight, which would shift the gradient to be more favorable for gap winds focused in the Livingston area, who's winds will continue to gust around 50 mph through Monday. Although we had a chilly night, downslope winds will help our temperatures quickly rebound to the low 40s today, and even reach the low 50s by Monday afternoon. Vertz High pressure is expected to dominate the weather for the upcoming week, with only minor waves moving through the overall flow pattern to flatten the ridging at times.
1116 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 (Today and tonight) Widespread dense fog early this morning is expected to dissipate as a cold front currently across northwest Oklahoma slides southeast bringing cooler/drier air into the area. There will be a small window for some of this activity around sunrise near the I-44 corridor, including central Oklahoma as the cold front swings through. However, higher chances will remain across southeast Oklahoma during the day as the front continues to move southeast and a weak upper trough translates northeast across the this area. Breezy north wind and cooler conditions tonight as drier air overspreads the area in the wake of the cold front.
5 C/KM and a sfc cold front/occlusion quickly approaching from the west, look for coverage and intensity of rain showers to trend up late this afternoon and early evening east of Hwy 131. --Colder air and a few snow showers Monday-- Arctic cold front slips south through the region on Monday and after a brief recovery in temps to near or slightly above freezing just before fropa (mainly south), they drop again through the 20s in the afternoon behind the front. Snow shower potential does not look too spectacular due to limited moisture, although Arctic cold fronts typically do have at least a narrow/brief band of snow showers with them as they come through.
High pressure then builds in Monday afternoon with decreasing clouds expected.
High pressure building over the region will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to the area today with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages. /ISSUED 433 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021/ Upper level ridging along the west coast shifts inland today and across the Northern Rockies and Montana early this week.
The mid/high clouds south of Denver have been fading as expected as the mid level trough axis drops slowly south. Highs will be largely similar to yesterday, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s over the plains, and in the 10s to 20s for the high country. Cool temperatures are also expected for much of the plains, with lows in the single digits to the low teens. The only place that will be on the "warmer" side will be the Foothills, where some light downslope winds will keep temperatures a little bit more mild. An upper level ridge will build over the area on Mon and then flatten out by Tue. This system will not have much cold air with it, so snow will be confined to the higher terrain, with rain at lower elevations.
A cold front, and associated shower activity, will come through Monday.
923 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Low pressure continues to develop in the lee of the Canadian and Northern U. upper ridge and a strong upper level jet dropping south through the Canadian Prairies. This feature will drive a cold front south through the Northern Plains, and will bring a shot of some light snow to the region through this evening. High pressure quickly moves south over the region after 06Z, decreasing clouds and bringing lows ranging from 10-15 below to the northeast.
While this began as early as 10 am across south central MO, there has been renewed vigor over the past hour or two thanks to a marginal increase in instability (200-800 J/kg of MUCAPE) along and south of an advancing surface cold front. BRC By Monday night, the synoptic scale pattern will begin a gradual transition from northwest flow aloft to quasi-zonal, as a longwave ridge very gradually flattens out and slides eastward into the plains and Mississippi Valley.
The cold front has pushed s and w to the FST-CNM with n-ne winds of 15-20kts in its wake. Cold front to north will press through KHOB/KMAF this AM around 14-15z with N shift. /issued 334 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/ Upper ridge giving way to trough diving down across UT and CO overnight and into AZ by morning. This trough will develop into a closed low as it slowly tracks across NM today and tonight moving across W TX Monday.
The cold front has finally pushed through the forecast area. Behind the cold front, low clouds continue to push south into the forecast area this morning. Temperatures behind the cold front are expected to be cooler today and the cloud cover will inhibit warming a little. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front will continue to sink south and eastward further out of our area this afternoon and evening, taking any lingering showers and storms across far southeast OK with it. Temperatures will stay a bit cooler across southwestern parts of the area where clouds and showers will be more extensive, but without widespread steady precipitation there likely won't be a huge gradient across the area (near 50 southwest, mid 50s elsewhere).
Snow and light freezing drizzle fell in the deformation zone of the low, including a narrow band of heavier snow associated with strongest frontogenesis. The vast majority of precipitation remained west and north of the area with only a few reports of light freezing drizzle or snow, with no accumulation reported.
1134 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 As this morning's cold front exits stage right, a much drier regime will follow, likely continuing through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. However, with mostly sunny skies and dry soils, especially upstream of our area, I opted to hold on the higher side of guidance for highs (similar to the previous forecast). A weakening upper level low will cross the Southern Plains MON/TUE, spreading a swath of precipitation from WRN TX east across OK. We'll continue to monitor trends, though, as any northward trend in the track of the low could bring parts of our area in play for some light precip.
Temps that pushed to near and even into the lower 70s today, will settle back closer to climo norms for the beginning of the workweek, in the lower 50s.
254 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front continues to push south through the area this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. High pressure builds over the region on Monday. Under mostly sunny skies highs will warm into the lower to middle 50s Monday afternoon.
A cold front will drop down into the area tonight and that will spell widespread pcpn reduced CIGs/VSBYs at all sites.
East winds will drop off on Monday, but it will be very dry and a little warmer.
A cold front along with rain will cross the region Monday.
Low pressure continues to develop in the lee of the Canadian and Northern U. upper ridge and a strong upper level jet dropping south through the Canadian Prairies. This feature will drive a cold front south through the Northern Plains, and will bring a shot of some light snow to the region through this evening. High pressure quickly moves south over the region after 06Z, decreasing clouds and bringing lows ranging from 10-15 below to the northeast.
Good track agreement and modest temporal variation exists with respect to the progression of the upper level trough out over the Four Corners. Very well, where do I begin? WV imagery depicts an elongated trough axis extending from WRN NE into central AZ. Most of the snowfall for this event is progged to occur in advance of the arrival of the upper low leaving scant little left to fall as the real (delayed) dynamical cooling sets in. The southerly winds within the eastern portion of the trowal are sourced from a region well above freezing (and not saturated). If I look at run accumulations and then take the residual of that which falls as the low finally gets here, we yield a fairly constant couple of tenths of an inch of snowfall.
Cloud cover spilling over an upper level ridge has filled in across Baker county and the w-central Idaho mountains this morning. The clouds will gradually break up this afternoon/evening as the ridge works eastward.
High pressure aloft is strengthening with the axis of the ridge along the Cascade Range. It will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs around 35-45 in the mountains and 45-55 in the lower elevations.
134 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 High pressure building over the region will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to the area today with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages. Upper level ridging continues to shift tonight and across the Northern Rockies and Montana early this week.
1023 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Cold front pushing through northeast OK this morning.
Morning temperatures will bottom-out in the low to middle 20s.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is gradually pushing southeastward, and is currently located along a SW/NE line from roughly KVIH to KPPQ. This first area of showers and thunderstorms will move to the northeast early this morning, but additional rain is expected to develop later this morning into this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that will move southeast across the area under the right entrance of an upper jet streak moving into the Great Lakes. The chance of rain will move south of the CWA by late this evening as the forcing exits the region and high pressure moves into the Midwest on Monday.
Temps have surged to the 60s and 70s, and even dewpoints in the low 60s. 6" range, and with model soundings showing a tall and skinny CAPE profile and a deep warm cloud layer, efficient rain-producing cells will continue this evening ahead of the approaching cold front and within a deep SW flow conducive to extreme moisture transport. Best wind energy is in the lowest 1 km. Cold front will pass through our southern IN counties around 00z, and should be our entire CWA by 03-04z tonight, evident by NW flow and CAA advection.
/Issued 1023 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/ Cold front pushing through northeast OK this morning.
1249 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a deepening long wave trough over the Plains to the Desert Southwest. Dry air within the trough has led to a clear sky. Water vapor from the subtropical jet stream is being pushed over the Southern Plains and Eastern CONUS ahead of the advancing long wave trough.
In addition, a cold front will move in from the north and could help generate isolated thunderstorms across portions of Burnet and Llano counties. As the above mentioned front continues to move southward this evening, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along and especially behind the cold front. Temperatures will also be much cooler and we have opted to trend toward the cooler guidance numbers with the expected precipitation, cloud cover and cold air advection behind the front.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather providing dry conditions and a southeast wind flow.
104 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front will sweep across the region this evening.
1005 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A warm front will continue to lift north into the region this morning, followed by a cold front late this afternoon into this evening.
202 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Cold front has cleared the forecast area, with the severe weather threat shifting east for the remainder of the day. Moisture won't be suppressed too far south, with a northward return forecast for later Monday ahead of the approaching upper low.
(This evening through Monday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was situated just south of a San Angelo to Brady line. An upper level low will approach from the west tonight, and move across the area on Monday.
1047 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 The Bermuda High remains in control across the western Atlantic with a ridge axis stretching across the Sunshine State and into the Gulf of Mexico. This high is maintaining moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. With moisture limited to the lowest 50-100 mb of the BL, mesoscale features will have to be the triggers for any isolated shower that develops. All that said, it has been quite with temperatures near 80 degrees and dew points in the lower 70s. Thereafter deep layer ridging in place across the eastern U.
(This evening through Monday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was situated just south of a San Angelo to Brady line. An upper level low will approach from the west tonight, and move across the area on Monday. (Monday night through next Sunday) On Monday night the upper low will move northeast, from the northwestern part of Texas into far southern Oklahoma. With north winds diminishing, expect temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for lows across the western half of our area, and into the lower to mid 30s in the eastern counties.
Dewpoints over northeast AR were a few degrees cooler, but should warm with the surface warm front north of the area. 8 inches will prevail in advance of the cold front exceeding the 99th percentile of late February precipitable water climatology.
While highs should be well above freezing, the increased albedo and eventual melting of the snow will keep temperatures cooler. Additional cloud cover may also be a possibility throughout this week due to greater moisture in the low- level vertical profile.
235 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 After an unseasonably warm day yesterday, it feels noticeably cooler today thanks to a cold front currently progressing southward through the region. As of 230 PM CST, the front has made it to I-10 and to the lee of the higher terrain, and will continue its progression south-southwestward to the Rio Grande tonight. In addition to the cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions, an approaching trough will bring the potential for some precipitation overnight tonight through Monday. There still remains uncertainty in the precipitation/snowfall forecast, however, given differences between even the high-resolution guidance this afternoon.
1046 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge. expect daytime highs noticeably cooler than yesterday. With an upper level ridge building eastward across the central Rockies, expect clear skies and a warming trend via gradual airmass modification.
So, any showers outside of the highest elevations are lucky to drop virga at best. As the existing trough slides to the east this evening, northerly flow takes over tonight. This is thanks to a ridge that quickly builds into the area tomorrow.
The highs on Monday should be similar to todays highs.
750 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 The upper trough continues its slow advance over the Rockies and northeast Colorado is now behind the trough axis. Skies are mostly clear, except for a few clouds around some of the high peaks of the Divide, and should remain so overnight with light subsidence aloft. It may well wind up just being some little clouds clinging to the ridges. The current forecast has lows near the colder GFS MOS guidance which looks good and highs near the guidance about 10-15 degrees warmer on Monday. An upper ridge over the area Monday evening will slowly move southeast, with a good surface pressure gradient in place along the foothills.
521 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front continues to push south through the area this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. High pressure builds over the region on Monday. Under mostly sunny skies highs will warm into the lower to middle 50s Monday afternoon.
308 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The main feature on the 500mb chart this morning was a trough of low pressure which extended from southwestern Minnesota into northern Arizona.
High pressure building over the region will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to the area today with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages. Upper level ridging continues to shift tonight and across the Northern Rockies and Montana early this week.
SRH values around 400 with some turning of winds in the lowest levels adequate enough for tornadic development. Taking a even a closer look, the warm front has continued to tracking northeastward, with a tight surface/low level lows across Great Lakes Region doing the same. Movement of these lows will drag its associated cold front across mid state region as evening hours progress and potentially even into late night hours. Mid and upper level flow not especially impressive as it is continuing to be depicted by latest model runs along with surface cold front. As a cold air advection pattern from our north settles into mid state region as Monday progresses, highs will be actually be a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values generally upper 40s to lower 50s.
South to southeast winds AOB 15 knots will continue under high pressure with some patchy sea fog possible mainly across the northern waters tonight.
High pressure will continue to build over the area through midweek yielding dry and warming conditions.