Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After a relatively warm day today, temps will cool only into the mid 20s to low 30s tonight as high pressure builds in over central ND. Some of the high- res models have a frontogenetical band of snow nosing in from the west into the Valley City area late tonight. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday as high pressure dominates. Although some cooler air will have moved in for Monday, temps in the 40s are expected in most areas by mid afternoon.
244 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will remain over the region through Monday night.
The better chance for showers and a few storms in the short term period will come Monday night as a cold front sinks south across the lower Ohio Valley.
120 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Low pressure passes well to the east today as high pressure builds later today through Monday.
333 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Current satellite and observations show the cold front close to Lake Okechobee with a north to northwest winds gusting between 15 to 20 mph and a cloud deck at around 3000 feet ahead of it. Dry air will continue to advect into the region early portion of the week, allowing to lower rh values into the upper low 40s upper 30s and mid to low 30s by mid week.
A warm front was surging through the Ozarks, as dew points were shooting up some 30 degrees in many locations.
Tomorrow, VFR is likely with surface winds once again becoming breezy due to the typical high pressure and low pressure interaction. /issued 254 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): High pressure, both surface and aloft, will continue to dominate the weather through the short- term. The only change of note during the next 36 hours is that a slug of even drier air beneath the upper high will move into the eastern half of the CWA overnight. These areas will have lighter winds and cooler temps, as well as having been more fog-prone of late.
Latest surface map showing low pressure centered over north central Nebraska, with a frontal boundary extending northeast into southeast Manitoba. With time, this boundary should focus more into a warm front over Iowa as the low moves eastward. While the initial band of showers/storms shifts into Indiana early Monday, the high-res models try to develop some additional convection over the eastern CWA with the arrival of the front itself early afternoon. A cold frontal boundary will slowly drop into southern Illinois Monday night, shifting the focus for rain south of our forecast area.
The main kicker for shower/storm chances should be just south, with the low level jet impinging on the on the southern tail of the front.
633 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will remain over the region through Monday night.
255 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure will build over the area into Monday, before weak low pressure crosses the area Monday night.
As a frontal boundary drops south across the area tonight, could still perhaps see some redevelopment overnight in the northeastern and eastern portions of the forecast area, right along the edge of upper-level ridging as a weak vort max rotates around.
The cold front has now moved south of the region with very dry air moving in behind it. High pressure will move from the western Gulf today to over the southeastern states on Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): High pressure, both surface and aloft, will continue to dominate the weather through the short- term. The only change of note during the next 36 hours is that a slug of even drier air beneath the upper high will move into the eastern half of the CWA overnight. These areas will have lighter winds and cooler temps, as well as having been more fog-prone of late.
637 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Low pressure will track well south of the region overnight. High pressure will build across the region Monday.
128 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Dry conditions will prevail until the next cold front crosses the region Monday afternoon and overnight. Fog/freezing drizzle issues have mostly resolved and we are left with broken/overcast skies. The clouds will start to slowly erode as ridging builds in from the west. Sunday night will remain dry as the ridge continues to slide east. Rain will be possible sunday afternoon and into the evening as the next cold front quickly crosses the region.
148 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Low level clouds continue to slowly break up as high pressure moves east. After a quiet evening and early overnight, expect a cold front to approach late tonight and early Monday with showers and a possible thunderstorm that could continue into the day. Temperatures should begin rising overnight, with all temperatures rising above freezing before precipitation begins. Therefore, no travel issues are expected with temperatures staying above freezing. No freezing rain, sleet or snow is expected.
348 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 It will be a quiet and dry evening as high pressure slides to our east. There is a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight with the highest chances over northwest Indiana. A cold front will cross the area Monday and showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Don't believe it will get too much warmer in that area. 850 mb thermal ridge is over the area thru 18z with 925 mb thermal ridge over the area thru 21z. Thus there will that period where a favored southwest to west wind will occur this aftn bringing down warmer temps aloft into the red river valley. temps will settle back below the freezing mark by 12z mon. Favored west wind Monday along with some sun should allow temps to reach the 40s in all but areas north of devils lake despite cooler 925-850 mb temps.
Warm front currently looks to extend from north-central Missouri southward into NW Arkansas and down towards New Orleans, and shows up quite well in visible satellite imagery with abundant cu field in the warm sector. The warm temperatures will continue into Monday with broad ridge in place over much of the Central Plains and Midwest. Thermal ridge placement will extend over the area Monday with 850mb temperatures of 15-20C. Steep lapse rates will allow these warmer temperatures to mix down to the surface. Convection chances look low as front nears the region, but with a bit cooler air at mid-levels the higher terrain of NW Arkansas could see a storm or two late afternoon and early evening. Cold front will stall over the area, but models place it a bit more north along the NE OK/SE KS border.
High pressure was over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. The high will keep things dry tonight. A warm front currently stretches from eastern South Dakota through western Arkansas and into southeast Louisiana. Warmer air will move into the region behind this front which will allow temperatures to warm to around 80 degrees over much of the forecast area. By Monday night, a cold front will approach the region from the north.
From satellite we find the remnant, trough (backdoor front), across South Florida this afternoon. This trough is the southern most extent of the system currently bringing snow to the New England coast, but has only some extra cloudiness associated with it. Winds are out of the northwest to north around 10 knots at the island terminals and the marine station east of the Lower Keys, while the stations adjacent to the Lower Keys and to the west show 10 to 15 knots. The dry backdoor front will push across the Keys late this this evening and overnight, with high pressure building across the eastern United States on its heels. This area of high pressure winds will increase winds this evening and overnight out of the northwest initially, veering around to northeast on Monday.
Thicker cirrus showing up on satellite, and this may slow warming some, however did raise highs into the lower and mid 80s for the southern part of the forecast area with a record/near record at LNK (current record is 82 set in 1921. Not bad for the last day of astronomical winter! A cold front will move into the area tonight. Much cooler on Monday for the first day of Spring, but still above normal with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Breezy northeasterly winds prevail which will usher in drier dewpoints, with grassland fire danger indices only reaching the high category.
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 High pressure builds into the region tonight and Monday. Warmer and dry weather can be expected Monday, with temperatures trying to get above 40 for the first time in a while in many places.
High pressure will remain in control of the regional weather pattern through most of the week.
High pressure will seep into North Dakota tonight and with a shift to a northerly wind Monday will be cooler with temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
This is in conjunction with 850mb thermal ridge expanding into the state from the Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. Eventually, sufficient lift for parcels to reach the LFC will occur in eastern Iowa near the Highway 20/30 corridor later this evening, according to meso-models. Drier and cooler air will push into the state on Monday on the backside of the system with partly sunny skies. Although temperatures will be cooler than today, readings will still be several degrees above normal with the bigger surge of cold advection arriving Monday night.
West of this lift, a ribbon of weaker ascent was noted arcing west across the southern Panhandle and back into eastern NM - all along the western periphery of an elongated 700mb ridge. PoPs were boosted accordingly in these areas in tune with some of the higher res models that have performed the best in recent days.
Quiet dry weather Today through Tuesday as high pressure reigns. This includes very comfortable readings mainly in the 50s to near 60 by dawn this morning, which will generally be repeated this coming night as dewpoints remain on the low side. This along with ridging aloft will bounce daytime temperatures up another few to several degrees for most locations.
For today, an upper level low will slowly wobble through central Washington allowing for scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Southwest Montana. As the low moves into the Idaho Panhandle on Tuesday, rain showers will become much more widespread across Central Idaho into western Montana. Daytime temperatures will cool further with highs in the low to mid 70s for valleys.
114 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 A weak cold front will become stationary over Eastern North Carolina through Monday Night. High pressure will build offshore late in the week. The diffuse surface cold front was located from just north of Cape Hatteras southwest to near Kinston and appeared to be becoming stationary late tonight.
Short term model does not bring the low clouds into Roseburg but instead keeps them to the west and Northwest in the lower Umpqua River Valley. The overall synoptic pattern favors a stronger westerly flow into our forecast area as the main low pressure moves into western Washington and NW Oregon. Cooler temperatures will continue today and Tuesday with high temperatures almost 10 degrees cooler than normal for early August.
Forecast models have high pressure sliding slowly east of the region today and tonight. The influence of the high will bring dry conditions to the area. 925 mb temperatures suggest highs in the lower 80s inland, and upper 70s lakeside with persistent onshore winds.
Latest HRRR shows convection across southeast Montana associated with cold frontal boundary will approach southwest North Dakota late this evening. By Monday afternoon, a surface wind shift/weak cold front will be situated along the Highway 83 corridor, with middle to upper 60s F dewpoints expected in the pre-frontal warm sector.
An upper level trough along the West Coast will dominate the weather pattern for the next several days. As a result, temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal and coastal locations will continue to experience low clouds and fog each morning. High pressure will build over the region late in the week, resulting in a reduction in fog and low clouds along the coast, and modest warming elsewhere.
439 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 (Today and Tonight) With the upper level high over the forecast area, hot and dry conditions will continue. Going with a persistence temperature forecast with the highs today and lows tonight.
/Issued 746 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016/ A moist and moderately unstable airmass along with a weak upper low spinning over the southeast will continue to support scattered to numerous convection through the evening. Low pressure over north FL may move little during the short term. Path of FL low will affect rainfall totals across the area and at this time the evolution of the low is uncertain. BDL The broad low pressure system centered just west of the CWA should stagnate through the vast majority of the fcst period allowing for an abnormally moist and tropical airmass with PWATs in 2.
A fairly persistent forecast is in store for South Texas with mid/upper level ridge remaining over Texas. Slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday and high dewpoints will bring higher heat index values to inland areas and a heat advisory may be warranted.
High pressure will provide another dry day Monday. Dry conditions and partly cloudy skies will prevail with high pressure anchored over the Midwest. Current temps across the area are ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s and are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s overnight. With some clouds around went closer to the warmer MAV MOS low temperatures, which is similar to a raw model blend.
Widespread dew points in the lower to mid 60s are supporting MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which combined with bulk shear in the 25-35 knot range is favoring MCS maintenance to the E this morning.
Warmer weather will return later in the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the district. A westerly flow aloft resides over CA underneath a closed upper low in the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels today but a bit warmer than yesterday due less cooling from a shallower marine layer. Upper level energy upstream of a Pacific Northwest low will push South and dig an upper trough across central CA tonight.
Thermal ridge at 850 mb and at 700 mb extended from Mexico up into Montana. At 500 mb a closed low was centered near Seattle. with general weak troughing over the far western United States. weak ridging was noted from Texas up into the western Dakotas. Surface analysis early this morning showed high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. with highs in the lower and mid 80s. high pressure should continue to move eastward.
624 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions throughout the forecast with light/variable winds becoming northeast during the day and then southeast Tuesday morning as this high moves off to the east. Sprawling high pressure now centered over Lower Michigan this morning will continue to be the dominant feature for the forecast. While all of the models are in agreement with this feature, it is the low level moisture profile from 850 mbs and below where differences are noted. 00z NAM brings this moisture as far north as the ridgeline in Southeast MI while all of the others keeps it in Northwest and North Central OH. Even without the high pops of the NAM.
WV imagery shows the subtropical ridge still centered over Texas, where it has resided the past few days, although a bit further SE than 24 hours ago.
Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s away from Lake Michigan, while areas closer to the lake will remain in the upper 60s. Beachler 205 PM CDT Upper ridge will strengthen across the region allowing for primarily dry conditions along with a warming trend through midweek. Ridge axis is expected to shift to the east coast by Tuesday with south/southwest flow setting up across the midwest which will help kick off our warming trend in earnest. Models have trended a little slower in pushing the ridge axis east, but also continue to keep the better precip chances well off to our west increasing confidence in a dry forecast through midweek.
Expect clouds to continue to advance N thru the predawn as an inverted surface trof sets up over the area. Decent theta e advection with the low level convergence from said trof should allow shra to break out over SW Va this morning. Axis of theta e and inverted surface trof pivots W this evening. The lone exception will be over the E slopes and the C WV mountains as a disturbance rides up the Blue Ridge. continue to roll with a MET/Superblend look which keeps the mountains quite a bit cooler compared to the Lowlands. With the low level puff and clouds. kept lows tonight on the high side of the guidance envelope. While we will be under high pressure, lobes of moisture may drift up into our unstable air mass giving aftn tstms.
Additionally, we may see isolated convection in our eastern counties this afternoon in association with convection occurring across East Texas and Oklahoma on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge.
415 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Skies are mostly cloudy with temperatures holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is draped across extreme South Florida, resulting in east to southeast winds of around 10 knots except slightly higher on the Florida Straits.
Rain chances increase throughout the day and into tomorrow as an upper level low pressure system along the Florida coastline begins to wrap mid-level moisture over the ArkLaMiss. Best chances remain along and east of Interstate 55 where there will be the best support from the upper low.
Broad upper level troughing is exiting the Great Lakes through New England with ridging building into the Midwest/western Great Lakes. High pressure will drift across the region today and off to the east tonight, while maintaining quiet weather across the Great Lakes. Afternoon high temperatures will rival Sundays highs, if not just a touch warmer with most areas reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds themselves should remain low enough so that we don't elevate the fire danger, but the fire danger will be high as it is from the high temperatures and low humidity.
Highs for today were trended toward the warmer MAV guidance as the MET has been too cool over the past couple of days. Mid week will a broad ridge across most of the southern conus along and east of the rockies, meanwhile a low slowly lifts from the pacific NW towards the canadian plains. Southeasterly winds will bring an increase of BL moisture along with warmer temps. MOS guidance continues to push highs well into the 90s by Wed and have some concern the increase BL moisture and recent lingering effects of cloudy cool weather may keep the temps in the lower to mid 90s. Still with highs this warm and the high dew pts will have to monitor the heat index values as they near advisory criteria across the east.
322 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure centered to our north will continue to hold over the Great Lakes for the next 24 hours before edging off to our east on Tuesday. As a result, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than over east central Illinois this afternoon with highs expected to range from the lower 80s far southwest to the mid and possibly upper 80s over the east and southeast counties. 00Z forecast models continue to expand the subtropical mid/upper level ridge across the southern states, northward over IL through mid week. Tropical heat and humidity will be pushing northward with this ridge into central and southeast IL on Tue and especially by Wed.
High pressure will continue to cross the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow, then shift to the east tomorrow night. Temperatures will be cooler once again tonight with lows in the 60s in most locations. Thus, lows will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight.
Temperatures are warmer compared to 24 hours ago as onshore flow has slackened and the marine layer is down to around 1000 feet. The low over the PacNW will continue to edge slowly east early this week maintaining a weak trough south into NorCal. Warming is likely after mid-week as the trough lifts out and is replaced by ridging from the eastern Pacific.
127 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Aviation High pressure will continue to produce fair weather early in the week with warming temperatures early to midweek. High pressure will continue to bring fair weather tonight through Tuesday. Mid to upper level ridging will be in place to start the period as the low level thermal ridge arrives.
Currently, upper level ridge axis pushing east across the Dakotas allowing our flow aloft to transition to southwesterly ahead of a closed upper level low over the Pacific Northwest. Showers and thunderstorms which moved into western North Dakota a few hours ago rapidly diminished as they moved to the east of a trough of low pressure positioned across eastern Montana. Surface wind shift along the trough will be situated along the Highway 83 corridor or to just west. However, the relatively narrow moisture/MUCAPE axis coupled with a capping inversion near a thermal ridge and lack of good height falls looks to keep storm development more isolated, with SREF Prob Severe not keying in on a strong severe signature.
An approaching trough/short wave will place the Northland in a return flow with increasing 850hPa temps Monday. The upper level ridge will break down early this week as the west coast upper low/trof slowly digs into the western CONUS. This upper feature, in concert with a return to low level warm advection on back side of retreating high, will set the stage for some thunderstorms beginning Monday night in the far west and spreading east overnight and mainly Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through.
Went closer to the GFS for temperatures and more towards the NAM for winds, but both are warmer than previous runs.
Slow moving low pressure across the Suwannee River Valley early this morning will drift north today across SE Ga then west tonight. with more widespread and persistent rainfall near the low center. Rain chances across the remainder of the area will be a little higher than recent days due to the northward progression of the low and convection across these zones will increase into the afternoon with diurnal heating. Mid level 500 mb temperatures were still relatively warm in the -4 to -6 deg C range with some further cooling over the coastal waters this afternoon as an upper level low north of the Bahamas drifts west. cooler than recent days across SE Ga as the rainfall potential shifts farther north today. Low temperatures tonight will range in the low/mid 70s.
Thermal ridge axis will be over the fa tonight so temperatures will hold up. Short wave ridging builds in briefly Tuesday ahead of next stronger wave so brunt of the day should be dry. Upper low over the northern rockies will lift slowly NE Tuesday night through midweek.
Broad upper ridge covers the region with a wedge of drier air stretching from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s north into the lower 70s south. Skies are partly cloudy to mostly clear with light north winds and temps in the mainly in the lower 70s.
Meanwhile the area of rain and embedded thunderstorms has shrunken over the northeast gulf but continues to regenerate on the southwest side of a weak low pressure area over north florida. During Monday the area of low Pressure is expected to drift westward some with the southwest flow becoming more southerly. Abundant moisture will remain in place and it looks like we will see a similar pattern to today across the region with the highest pops and heaviest rainfall expected to be near the coast from around Tampa Bay north along the Nature Coast, but cannot rule out some locally heavy rain with some of the storms that develop outside the rain area.
332 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 Have trended forecast toward a combination of ARW/HRR in the short term bridging toward the GFS this afternoon. existing 2 inch PWs will be further enhanced by ridge of 850 mb moisture transport as winds veer so moderate to occasional heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding in flood prone areas.