Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
417 PM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TREK OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN UT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CO LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WITH LARGE SCALE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2"/HOUR OR GREATER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
317 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA THIS AFTERNON.
214 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A PLEASANT MILD AND DRY AFTERNOON WAS IN PROGRESS WITH GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE OWING TO DRY N-NELY SFC FLOW. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN RAPIDLY TO THE S-SE ON WEDNESDAY.
245 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 WV imagery shows the upper closed trough over western UT, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, and the thermal ridge extending from the Big Bend Area thru the Texas Panhandle. Latest RTMA analysis shows Red Flag conditions at 17Z extending along the higher elevations of the Guadalupes down thru the Delawares, along w/adjacent areas of the SE NM Plains. Elsewhere, leeside troughing and a 45-50kt LLJ will keep winds up overnight, especially this evening. Thermal ridge is forecast to shift to the SE, w/decreasing thicknesses, so despite downslope warming, afternoon temps should be a little cooler than today.
343 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A FAIRLY STRONG PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ROLLING PLAINS BUT THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAKES THIS AN UNCERTAIN EVENT AT BEST. RMCQUEEN COOLER PATTERN AWAITS LATER THIS WEEK EAST OF A BLOCKING LONGWAVE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING A LARGE EXTENT OF THE PACIFIC COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE. PERSISTENT TROUGHING FOCUSED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BEGIN PHASING WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PROCESS WILL CARRY THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION BUT LEAVE A SHEARING TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
1021 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 High pressure will move into the region from the north today. High pressure will allow dry weather through the rest of the week.
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
338 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS/FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR ARE EDGING TO THE NORTH. UPPER LOW HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH OF WATER-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF INTERSTATE 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
High pressure to our northeast will keep us dry and mostly sunny today with near seasonal temperatures.
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE HUN CWFA TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY, WITH A SECONDARY HIGH HOLDING STRONG OVER THE CAROLINAS. H5 RIDGING IS ALSO BUILDING IN ALOFT OVER THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70, WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY IN NE AL AND THE WARMER VALUES IN NW AL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION.
Intense 538 dm cold closed low spinning into western Utah this morning. This upper cyclone is expected to remain nearly stationary over the Great Basin today, as a strong leeside surface cyclone deepens over eastern Colorado. Can't rule out an isolated cell, and kept the low pops just east of the dryline during peak heating as inherited. Closed cyclone ejects into SW Nebraska, with an associated well-defined dry slot overspreading SW KS. Strong SW winds will veer to strong NW with cold frontal passage. much cooler in a much drier airmass, with lows ranging from near 30 NW to upper 30s SE. Wraparound clouds from ejecting cyclone likely to affect northern zones for a time Wednesday night.
246 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIAL ENERGY FROM CYCLONE KICKS OUT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
308 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE WEEK.
BUT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME BEFORE THE LOWEST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FINALLY SATURATES TO ALLOW MUCH DRIZZLE TO REACH THEGROUND. AS THE LOW PULLS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE LOW AS MOISTURE PULLS IN FROM BEHIND. SNOW POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMEPRATURES DO NOT DROP VERY MUCH BELOW FREEZING.
A large closed low currently over the Great Basin of Utah/Nevada will continue to push spokes of energy up into Lemhi county and southwest Montana. Also the slight shift farther south of the center of the low has cause the pressure gradient not to be as tight. Both the precipitation and winds will continue to diminish during the overnight hours as the low moves off to the east.
345 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE CNTL CONUS. STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GO THROUGH MAX HEATING ALONG WITH OUR WEAK WARM FRONT. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
408 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A large low pressure system was currently located over Nevada and Utah this afternoon.
450 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
213 PM MST TUE MAR 29 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW ALSO PLAYS KEY IN WHERE ANY DEFORMATION PRECIP DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF WY AND BRING COOLER AIR ALONG WITH SNOW. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE AREA AND DRIER MOVES IN.
Timing the lowering of dewpoints to mixing versus eventual advection of and increase in dewpoints across far eastern OK and western AR is problematic w/ short range data offer wide range of possibilities.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALMER OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PLACES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FROST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THIS CONVECTION LIKELY BEGINNING TO PUSH ONSHORE THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TOWARD NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LAND AREA WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE HIGHER RH VALUES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
AT LEAST SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. WHERE THE FRONT/INVERTED TROF WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AND IS REFLECTIVE OF FORCED ASCENT THAT WILL STILL BE ONGOING ALOFT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NW WI TRENDING DOWNWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MN TO LESS THAN 10 POPS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES PRIMARILY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER ONE MORE DAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
ridge axis will be moving across mid- Mississippi Valley tonight promoting subsidence. Clouds will also be on the increase tonight so leaned aoa the warmer MAV guidance for mins.
258 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT AS LEAD VORT CENTER EJECTS OUT OF LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE.
WAA EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WARMER TRENDS CONTINUE WITH ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES AND SUGGEST RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE UTAH AND NEVADA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. AND WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES WHERE ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET BUT ENHANCED SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES PLUS WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL OVERNIGHT.
325 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE LOW. SO ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY BY WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BLOSSOMS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH TX LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
351 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper trough will track east from the Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows only in the low to mid 60s. Storm chances do not end until well after midnight when cold front brings in drier air.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE FL EAST COAST. THE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE DRY DUE TO DRY AND AND STABLE AIR AT MID LEVELS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER. AREAS WELL INLAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
630 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN THAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SAT BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
625 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A LATE NIGHT TEMP FALL WITH SOME OF OUR VALLEYS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SITTING IN THE LOWER 30S THIS MORNING. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AS WE DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. RIDGES SHOULD STAY MIXED KEEPING THEM IN THE LOWER 40S. A TRANSITION TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING DOWNSTREAM OF A DAMPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
/issued 331 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Moisture continues to increase in the low levels tonight with good southerly flow across the area. Western areas that see more sunshine will be warmer.
SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE WINDS SOUTHERLY AND TEMPS WARMER. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE WARMER THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME SUNSHINE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
A DEVELOPING ROCKY MOUNTAIN LEEWARD TROUGH WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY ONSHORE WINDS. AREA TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S. /ISSUED 519 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016/ A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISO/WIDELY SCT SHRAS EXPECTED TODAY BUT POPS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. PCPN CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THURS AFTN. THE LINGER- ING TROF AXIS TO OUR WEST COULD KEEP MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FCST SAT/SUN (HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS COOL). THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SUN. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX TODAY/TOMORROW. 41 HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
246 PM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REPLACES AND EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR EAST-NORTHEAST, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS TO OUR REGION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW PLUS MINOR INSTABILITY A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE TRIGGERED TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
1124 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP TONIGHT AS NRN/SRN VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROF INDUCE SFC REFLECTIONS.
A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME TSRA IS ANTICIPATED BTWN 23/11-15Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD.
332 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THIS CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SOME MODEL SUGGEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS CWA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BEACH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER TO THE DAKOTAS/MONTANA BORDER. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROWAL WAS POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AND THE TROWAL AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOW AND MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
THROUGH DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BY MID DAY THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END.
WITH MOSTLY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE LOW AND ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
Highs today will be slightly cooler, with some cold air advection behind the wave, and from the upper 40s to around 50.
358 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 AT H5 BROAD TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER HIGHS ARE OFF EITHER COAST.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVES NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
412 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADED TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FALLING TEMPERATURES/GUSTY WINDS/FREEZING ON ROADWAYS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE SNOW WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES.
Surface cyclone strengthens to near 987 mb near Lamar by 6 PM, tracks to near Dodge City by midnight, and near Emporia by 6 AM Wed. Associated vorticity max will zip into SW KS after midnight, pushing a vigorous cold front quickly through all zones. Noticeably cooler thanks to modest cold advection behind the departing wave.
THIS DISTURBANCE WL SEND A COLD FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL BE A LITTLE COOLER. BUT COOLING ALOFT WILL HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
253 AM MST WED DEC 23 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.
335 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TODAY LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY TONIGHT. DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT. BUT THE 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT TSRA WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIKELY REACH NW OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AT WHICH POINT LOW PRESSURE. WILL SWING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER MONTANA WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES AND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, PRODUCING SMALL, TRANSIENT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TO GET BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW.
COOLER AIR MOVING IN THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW INTO SE ND ALONG WITH A CLEARING HOLE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS HUNG UP IN THE FLOW AS A STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL U. UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT WORKS INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SWINGS THIS WAY. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE LOW 60'S. WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM LOW CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WARM ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH OUR SEVEN-DAY FORECAST HORIZON. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROF AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSETTLED.
A warm front will begin to lift northward through Oklahoma and Arkansas late Christmas Day and into Christmas night as a deep upper trough digs into the southwestern United States.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE. AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHEAR GENERATED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS TREMENDOUS AND WILL SUPPORT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS W TX. AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR E TX COUNTIES WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALREADY DRAWING A PLUME OF DEEP MID/UPPER LVL PACIFIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH AND SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND A LVL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS AND A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.
MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS. I THINK THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN HOW THE LOW IS DEEPENING BUT INITIALLY THIS WILL BE A RAIN PRODUCER WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. 23/06Z LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RA TO SITES WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAINING MVFR AND LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR OR LIFR WITH RA.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES WITH 30KT TO MIX AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LAYERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BAND OF SNOW IN THE NORTH CLOSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NW ALSO TRYING TO BUILD IN.
MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE DECENT SHOT OF RAIN WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE LATE EVENING (EARLY OVERNIGHT) WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
Forecast area to remain on warm side of system through midday before strong cold front slides through region.
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON APPROACH INTO MID TN BY THE EVENING. SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.