Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
242 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will linger atop region into the weekend.
Dry weather is expected overnight under high pressure. A building ridge should maintain dry weather and increasing warmth across the Upper Ohio Valley region through Wednesday night. Model ensembles indicate an upper high persisting across the Southern half of the CONUS through the period.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO Ongoing forecast looks reasonable and no changes were needed to the Heat Advisories and the high temperatures for today across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Some good news is in store for west Texas and southeast New Mexico beginning Thursday through the weekend as the strong upper level ridge centered over west Texas will slowly drift northward into north Texas and then into the southern plains this weekend.
308 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the north today before moving offshore late Thursday.
Dry and slightly warmer weather will continue through much of today. However, increasing humidity and an approach upper system and cold front will bring thunderstorms to the area tonight and Thursday. The cold front will briefly stall near the Ohio River before lifting to the north this weekend. Dry and a couple degrees warmer with strong insolation today. Low/mid level ridge to hold one more day. Attention shifts upstream this afternoon where strong destabilization to result in MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg over MO/IL in advance of low amplitude trough lifting northeast from the Southern Plains.
354 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will gradually move off the New England coast today and tonight, then build from the Canadian Maritimes southward into the western Atlantic through the end of the week. Strong upper level ridging will continue to be centered from the TN Valley southeast and off the SC Coast through tonight. High pressure will then begin to build into NC from the NE-E as ridging builds down the east coast from ME to NC/SC later today and tonight. Highs again should top out in the lower to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies.
A weak cold front will linger across central Utah through Wednesday. High pressure will slowly build across the west heading into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise cooler air on the north side of this boundary kept max temperatures suppressed a bit below normal across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, and this will remain the case again Wednesday before a warming trend ensues for the end of the week.
330 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Short Term [Today and Thursday] This morning's surface analysis indicates an area of high pressure extends across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and an elongated area of low pressure extending across the Central Plains. During Thursday, an upper level inverted trough is expected southwestward along the northern Gulf Coast.
Mid-level heights will build over the coming days as the ridge currently centered over the Southern Rockies gradually expands to the east. The weak, cut- off low over the TN Valley will shift south tonight and slowly migrate back to the west during the late week period on the southern periphery of the anticyclone. This ridge will remain in place through the short-term. Dewpoints are largely in the upper 60s this afternoon but that will change as a warm front lifts back across the area and southerly winds bring Gulf moisture back into the region. Most of the convection tomorrow will end around sunset but there is a potential for some overnight thunderstorms in the northern portion of the CWA (closer to the KY/MO borders) as a weak cold front drops south into the OH Valley.
Aside from the NAM, which is usually on the high side for CAPE, models seem to have low values (around 100 to 500 J/kg) perhaps because lingering cloud debris limits insolation ahead of thunderstorms. The low level jet lags behind the initial line of showers and storms so shear will be initially less than 30 kts and there will only be pockets of 30 kts of shear in our forecast area as it catches up to the boundary. As the low level jet catches up to the line around 6z, can't rule out a damaging wind potential west of US-31 as well as heavy rain with PWATs over 2". Areas east of of I-69 have the greatest potential to reach 90 degrees where the warmer 850 mb temps and better low level lapse rates reside.
An upper low overhead will likely provide some convective suppression east of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers today, though isolated to widely scattered storms will still be possible. West of the rivers, the forcing for ascent from the southwest propagating upper low will assist the seabreeze in generating more robust convection. Highs will climb into the low 90s, with heat indices between 100-105 degrees. Expect storms to diminish quickly around sunset, with lows falling into the lower to middle 70s.
High pressure is in place over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. With a stronger fetch of air from the south across our western zones, which are influenced more readily under return flow regimes, kept those areas a tad warmer tonight.
An upper ridge will continue overhead. Upper ridge possibly retrograding during the period which may allow some upper level short waves to rotate through the area especially late in the period. The ECMWF still appears to hold the ridge over the region longer.
227 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 The hot spell begins today with the upper high strengthening over the region. It appears as the upper high will win over, and hold the precip chances off area wide until Thursday afternoon, when diurnal help can cause showers and storms to develop. This will lower temps a degree or two, which is good since earlier model runs had this high a bit stronger placing warmer temps and heat index values over the mid state.
139 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure builds in across the area on Wednesday for a relatively dry day and temperatures right around seasonal normals.
For the moment, our area remains under the influence of the big hot ridge which has been dominant for a while, with southwesterly flow aloft keeping monsoonal moisture at bay.
1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Surface cold front has worked towards central Iowa with strato- cumulus field developing behind the front. As heat and humidity expands east behind a subtle warm front through the day on Thursday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases. Wind shear in the lower levels is quite weak, but there is some stronger mid and upper level winds creating 0-6 km bulk shear values near 30 knots.
Meanwhile in the mid/upper levels a strong ridge will setup across the southern U. The highest rain chances are expected along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor from Tampa Bay south.
Elsewhere, to the south of the Highway 54 corridor, a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible through the mid-morning. However, it is expected most areas will remain dry south of the Highway 54 corridor. Keeping these factors in mind, the current CAMs have been persistent in scattered thunderstorms developing in the early afternoon across portions of our northern CWA, along and north of the Highway 54 corridor. On the flip side, it is expected that areas south of the Highway 54 corridor will remain capped, thus limiting overall convection chances as the front sweeps through the region.
1132 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Conditions will remain dry tonight as a cold front and associated thunderstorm activity remain to the west.
The upper level ridge that has plagued the area with the dangerous heat will continue to broaden, weaken slightly, and shift to our north Wednesday and Thursday. While it may be a few degrees cooler than we have seen over the weekend and to start the week we will still be close to record highs at San Antonio and Del Rio. Highs for Thursday will trend another degree or two cooler.
A cold front was pushing south across western and central Kansas overnight. Cooler temperatures can also be expected across the area today behind the front. The models show an east-west oriented upper level ridge building from the mid Atlantic into the central and southern High Plains by Thursday. With increasing heights/thickness values, we will see a return to warmer temperatures on Thursday with this trend continuing into the weekend.
319 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure aloft will keep us above normal for temperatures into the end of the week.
A short wave will move through the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday night, providing the energy needed to generate at least a few thunderstorms in northern and western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will bottom out overnight in the lower 70s as dewpoints rise to meet them by sunrise, so some fog could occur, especially in favored areas, but should not become thick enough to be problematic. Our area will be in a zonal flow pattern, just north of an elongated ridge running from the Southern Plains to the southeast U.
346 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A ridge of high pressure will move across Pennsylvania today.
Upper low over central Canada will continue to exist through the short range, with a multitude of s/ws rotating through the fast flow across the Northern Plains. First off this morning some activity may sneek into the south central part of the state as it moves east out of the High Plains/Black Hills area with associated forcing aloft.
1015 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 After a couple warm days on Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will cool a bit as a weak Pacific cold front will bring breezy winds to the area along with a few mountain showers. Tonight through Thursday: High pressure will amplify into early Wednesday. Otherwise, the trof passes through Thursday will be marked with pops for weak shower activity and minor mention of possible weak pulse type short lived thunderstorms near the British Columbia Border. In addition the highest temps of the workweek forecast for locations other than the Cascades and close vicinity is set for Thursday.
another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives in far eastern Colorado by late afternoon around an upper level high centered over south central Oklahoma. High temperatures return to normal with readings in the low 90s. As the upper level ridge continues to sit in the center of the U.
Guidance numbers show lows tonight near persistent; however, highs for Wednesday are a degree or two cooler than forecast highs, from previous runs.
Models are in good agreement increasing the storm coverage as the short wave trough approaches. Otherwise, it will be a pretty comfortable and borderline cooler day for mid July with highs only in the upper 70s to around 80. Clearing skies overnight as a ridge of high pressure moves into the area. Thursday will be closer to normal with southeasterly flow and warmer, highs back into the mid 80s, overall a pretty nice summer day with plenty of sunshine.
The upper level ridge of high pressure that has been present across the area will persist thru the short term period, although it will flatten out across the midsection of the country. With that in mind I will issue a heat advisory for tomorrow, and will extend it to the northeastern counties, keeping only the higher terrain of the north out of it.
Dry and slightly warmer weather will continue through much of the day Wednesday. However, increasing humidity and an approach upper system and cold front will bring widespread thunderstorms to the area Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will briefly stall before lifting to the north this weekend. Good confidence the upper ridge will keep it dry tonight. The short term will mark a change to the weather as an upper wave will move across the area Wednesday night and a cold front will drop southeast and reach northwestern parts of central Indiana around 12z Thursday. Return flow ahead of the cold front will result in a warmer, more humid and unstable atmosphere.
The low level jet this morning will lead to some LLWS potential at all terminals so will keep that in from the previous TAFs. /Issued 956 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020/ A few showers may develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma again overnight much like last night, so will keep the low pops in place.
Fair weather will continue today as a large upper- level closed high pressure system remains parked over the northeast Pacific Ocean.
(Today and tonight) Another day, another forecast of thunderstorms moving out of the High Plains. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Colorado/New Mexico High Plains again this afternoon with good upslope flow developing north of the cold front that will be moving south through Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon. As far as temperatures, the cold front will definitely be noticable with high temperatures 10 degrees lower today than yesterday across many areas.
This will be embedded within a much larger-scale trough with an axis in central/northern Manitoba.
228 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A cold front with a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move south into the Kansas City metropolitan area early this morning. The good news (besides the much needed rain) is that temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in the mid to upper 80s.
An upper ridge will move across the area on Thursday with a high pressure system.
A weak cold front stalled over southern WI tonight. Thunderstorms will taper off this evening and low temperatures generally in the lower 60s are expected. High pressure will build into the Upper Great Lakes and give us sunshine once again. Humidity will be on the lower side with dewpoints in the lower 60s. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s.
Cooler temps prevail for a couple of days before the hottest weather of the season so far builds in for the weekend. TONIGHT: A wide range of temps indicate the placement of the cold front bisecting the area this afternoon. Southerly winds have pushed dewpoints into the low to mid 70s across southwest Iowa and lead to the area's best instability. Thursday will be warmer by 5-8F thanks in part to sunny skies and southerly return flow.
300 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 (Today and Tonight) The upper level ridge, centered over West Central Texas today, will weaken slightly today while the 850 mb thermal ridge weakens as well, with 850 mb temperatures decreasing to 26-30 deg C. This, in addition to the low level/surface flow switching to the southeast direction (resulting in higher dewpoints this afternoon in the 50s), will result in temperatures not quite as hot as the last few days. (Thursday through Wednesday) The high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place leaving hot and dry conditions across the region.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed and will continue to develop today areawide from a combination of a weak upper low just to our northwest and outflow boundaries from earlier storms. High pressure will be building westward into the east coast with a weak trough moving in from the west. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values around 100-105 both days.
The upper ridge axis over our area will slowly shift off just to to our east by tonight. With high pressure continuing to dominate our weather, expect another hot and dry day with plenty of sunshine today, followed by a mostly clear night tonight. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 90s today in most valley areas, but again humidity levels should be low enough that heat index values will be close to the actual temperatures.
This comes as no surprise as a ridge axis is lifting northward across the island chain this morning, coupled with moisture beginning to filter into the region from the east. Ridge axis will continue to lift poleward, eventually settling across the eastern Gulf and central Florida.
/issued 434 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): The strong mid/upper level high pressure over Texas will continue to provide very warm to hot conditions across the CWA through the period. High temperatures on Thursday may be a degree or two lower, especially near the coast, than previous days as the strong 500 mb ridge moves slightly to the north.
Daytime heating may be enough to pop a few late day storms over the high Sierra later today to the south of I-80. Activity will likely be capped further to the north by warmer mid-level temperatures.
637 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A cold front with a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move south into the Kansas City metropolitan area early this morning. The good news (besides the much needed rain) is that temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in the mid to upper 80s.
628 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure aloft will keep us above normal for temperatures into the end of the week.
Over the course of today initially southwesterly flow will back around to become more out of the east and northeast as the influence of high pressure ridging extending outwards from out of the northeast. High temperatures today will range within the lower to mid 90s over northeast Florida and in the mid to upper 90s over southeast Georgia.
Today, an upper trough advances east to replace the ridging that is currently over the Ohio Valley. The resulting high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will make for another hot day. Tonight, the upper trough becomes near stationary as in nears the Ohio River. At the surface, a co-located saturated axis of low pressure will combine with the moist southerly flow to push precipitable water values over 2" across Indiana. This combination ahead of an advancing cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms over southwestern Indiana as we head into Thursday morning.
723 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A ridge of high pressure will move across Pennsylvania today.
632 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will gradually move off the New England coast today and tonight, then build from the Canadian Maritimes southward into the western Atlantic through the end of the week. Minimal patchy ground fog was noted around sunrise, mostly in the river valleys around the lower Roanoke River around Roanoke Rapids. Strong upper level ridging will continue to be centered from the TN Valley southeast and off the SC Coast through tonight. High pressure will then begin to build into NC from the NE-E as ridging builds down the east coast from ME to NC/SC later today and tonight. Highs again should top out in the lower to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies.
The one area that could see some shower development is the Lower Atchafalaya Basin, and therefore will place VCSH after 15/21Z for KLFT/KARA to account for this. /issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/ Short Term [Today and Thursday] This morning's surface analysis indicates an area of high pressure extends across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and an elongated area of low pressure extending across the Central Plains. During Thursday, an upper level inverted trough is expected southwestward along the northern Gulf Coast.
630 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Another day, another forecast of thunderstorms moving out of the High Plains. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Colorado/New Mexico High Plains again this afternoon with good upslope flow developing north of the cold front that will be moving south through Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon. As far as temperatures, the cold front will definitely be noticable with high temperatures 10 degrees lower today than yesterday across many areas.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 1043 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will linger atop region into the weekend.
Another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms are possible again, with the better chances in the eastern portion of the region, associated with a weakness in the mid/upper level ridging.
Dry and slightly warmer weather will continue today. However, increasing humidity and an approaching upper system and cold front will bring thunderstorms to the area tonight and Thursday. The cold front will briefly stall north of the Ohio River before lifting to the north this weekend. Dry and a couple degrees warmer with strong insolation today. Low/mid level ridge to hold one more day. Attention shifts upstream this afternoon where strong destabilization to result in MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg over MO/IL in advance of low amplitude trough lifting northeast from the Southern Plains.
319 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Through Thursday, a weak trough of low pressure over California will keep high temperatures west of the mountains a little cooler than average with night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending inland into portions of the inland valleys.
345 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Longwave trough continues to progress across Canada, with WNW flow aloft in its wake. This will help bring weak ridging across the northern Rockies during the next 36 hours. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions look to close out the week, with weak ridging in place.
Current forecast remains on track today with mostly sunny skies and max temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s. Today, an upper trough advances east to replace the ridging that is currently over the Ohio Valley. The resulting high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will make for another hot day. Tonight, the upper trough becomes near stationary as in nears the Ohio River. At the surface, a co-located saturated axis of low pressure will combine with the moist southerly flow to push precipitable water values over 2" across Indiana. This combination ahead of an advancing cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms over southwestern Indiana as we head into Thursday morning.
Highs will climb into the low 90s, with heat indices between 100-105 degrees. Expect storms to diminish quickly around sunset, with lows falling into the lower to middle 70s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): The strong mid/upper level high pressure over Texas will continue to provide very warm to hot conditions across the CWA through the period. High temperatures on Thursday may be a degree or two lower, especially near the coast, than previous days as the strong 500 mb ridge moves slightly to the north.
636 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will linger atop region into the weekend.
1040 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Morning sounding and wind profilers from the Cape show much lighter wind flow in the low and mid levels. Weak high pressure has pinched off over the eastern Gulf producing a light north to northwest flow this morning over the area. Sounding shows considerable moisture in the low levels with precip water values of 1. With the Atlantic ridge axis drifting northward, dominant westerly flow will become light and variable early this morning, allowing for the development of both the west and east coast sea breezes by mid to late morning. Overnight low temps will drop to the lower 70s across the interior, but remain in the mid to upper 70s for coastal locations.
Embedded within the stratus and fog is a nearly stationary and weak trough of low pressure from the surface up to the 925 mb and 850 mb levels, deepest to the south where recent cooling in the vertical and marine layer depth has generally been greatest. Over the weekend more inland 90s can be expected with a slight increase in 500 mb height ridging and less onshore winds. SFO Bridge Approach.
/issued 343 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/ HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO Ongoing forecast looks reasonable and no changes were needed to the Heat Advisories and the high temperatures for today across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Some good news is in store for west Texas and southeast New Mexico beginning Thursday through the weekend as the strong upper level ridge centered over west Texas will slowly drift northward into north Texas and then into the southern plains this weekend.