Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Isolated thunderstorms fired over portions of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties this afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain. In the big picture, high pressure aloft just east of the area over southwest New Mexico will continue to move to the east as a west coast trough develops.
Cloud cover will gradually increase from the northwest overnight with a slight chance of showers after midnight across the far western counties as surface warm front approaches. There will be chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the entire forecast area the first half of Friday as warm front continues to slowly move east. coverage and intensity will pick up a little more during the afternoon and evening with daytime destabilization and a bit more surface convergence as weak low pressure center moves across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb.
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough along the east coast with dry northerly flow around the trough across the forecast area.
Temperatures will likely be a degree or two warmer and moisture will slowly increase through the day from the south, but remain below an inch.
Current water vapor imagery showing a rather vigorous mid-level low over the arrowhead of MN with a trough extending southwest through MN. At the surface, a weak cold front extended from western Lake Superior through east central/southwest MN. Then focus shifts to the mid-level trough and weak surface cold front pushing into the area this afternoon. The cold front will return north as a warm front Friday and produce a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-90 in the afternoon.
312 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The area of low pressure that had brought the heavy rain to South Florida is finally splitting, with the main low exiting to the north east. This upper level low is forecast to slide to the northeast and be over New England by Friday morning. This front, which is a cold front, without the cooler weather, but with drier air to the north, will push into the Lake region before stalling, then washing out.
347 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
Some residual cloud possible tonight making the lows slightly warmer than previously anticipated.
220 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Weak low pressure off the North Carolina coast will continue to move northeast tonight.
A bit more cloud cover remains prevalent over NE AL, in closer proximity to the upper low/trough axis across the Mid Atlantic states. A few very light showers have also managed to develop under the trough pattern over extreme NW GA, and these may drift into extreme NE AL over the next few hrs before max heating begins to diminish helping to end what few showers may be left. This should allow for a slightly warmer day on Fri, as afternoon highs climb more into the lower 80s with scattered cu again developing over much of the area.
By early Sat, ridging aloft is progged to expand eastward into our region. Surface winds from the south and a building ridge aloft will lead to temperatures climbing above normal with increasing humidity.
Temperatures this late morning are running in the mid to upper 70s and we should reach into the lower 80s across the area. Mostly clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 50s tonight (7 to 10 deg F below climatic normal) over most of the forecast area after highs reach the low/mid 80s. /EC/ Friday through next Thursday morning: Continued surface ridging and northwest flow aloft will reinforce the dry pattern as we go through Friday and into the weekend.
603 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
Overall most locations remain dry this afternoon, but a few showers and thunderstorms have developed along and near the high terrain of SE KY. Ridging will build across the eastern half of the CONUS and remain in place until late in the period, Dys 6-7, when energy associated with an Intermountain West low pressure system will begin to move into the Ohio Valley while the parent low tracks into central Canada.
WV imagery indicates weak upper level ridging transitioning eastward across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is pushing ashore into the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening across eastern Colorado. Lee troughing will continue across eastern Colorado through tonight leading to southerly winds felt across western Kansas. Highs today look to reach into the mid to upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
1113 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central MN, with a frontal boundary stretching southwest through southern SD into northeastern WY. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far northern MN with an upper ridge over the Rockies, creating northwest flow over the northern high plains. For today, upper ridge will continue to build allowing southerly flow to bring warmer air into the northern plains. Upper ridge becomes centered over the area Friday, with very warm temperatures expected. Winds will turn more south-southwest ahead of the approaching cold front and a dryline that will extend south into far northeast WY and the Black Hills.
Post-frontal showers will ease overnight, but an upper level low will return showers Friday morning. The upper low will continue showers through the weekend and possibly trigger some afternoon thunderstorms.
Overnight, advancing mid- to upper-level ridge will nudge elevated mixed layer gradually eastward. Friday will begin the warming, although somewhat more subtly as low level flow will be more southerly as warm front lifts northward and somewhat less mixy as temperatures warm more rapidly aloft.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The weather rounding out the work week will be picturesque as high pressure remains the dominate feature. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal, but slightly higher moisture levels could keep temperatures a smidge cooler for Friday. This wave will eventually become closed low cut off from the main flow over the western Gulf.
A trough of low pressure will bring windy conditions at times to the mountains and deserts this weekend, and temperatures well below seasonal normals.
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the pd, as high pressure at the sfc continues to dominate our weather pattern.
137 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Upper level analysis shows a large ridge building over the Rockies, with northwest flow through the northern plains. Upper ridge will shift over the northern plains Friday, and winds will become southwesterly ahead of an approaching low-level trough. A fast-moving upper wave will pass to the northwest of the CWA Friday night, briefly flattening the ridge, and a cool front will move through the region.
1044 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The passage of a cold front today will bring widespread showers and cooler temperatures to the Inland Northwest.
Ridge will start to build over the area tomorrow which will bring an end to precipitation chances while also bringing an increase in temperatures.
647 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Weak low pressure off the North Carolina coast will continue to move northeast tonight.
This should yield afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations in continued northwest mid/upper flow. as the mid level thermal ridge expands across the central high plains on Friday, the airmass in the vicinity of the dryline across western KS is expected to remain capped with dry weather anticipated across our forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Dry weather conditions will carry into the beginning of the weekend as the mid/upper ridge translates eastward across the area with increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence. Breezy south winds will return helping to boost temperatures into the low to mid 90s or higher for many areas.
Convection was associated with the h850 warm front and warm prod working into the west half of the state ahead of a short wave trough. Will increase the pops and thunder mention later morning over North central Wisconsin and then the rest of the area this afternoon and evening as the short wave trough and frontal system drop into the state. Winds aloft not strong but directional shear does increase this afternoon as well as the short wave trough drops into the area. Convection expected to diminish this evening from northwest to southeast as the low pressure system drifts east across the area, the frontal boundary drops south of the area and diurnal component ends. A high pressure system builds into northern Wisconsin Friday while the surface front stalls near the Wisconsin Illinois border.
216 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Low pressure will approach from the south tonight and track south of the Gulf of Maine on Friday.
Lows generally in the 70s, slightly warmer along the coast where winds remain onshore, mainly north of Melbourne. Expect a bit more sunshine once morning low clouds burn off, so warmer temps in store, mid to upper 80s most area.
350 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Current watervapor loop over the western United States shows the upper level ridge axis moving into eastern Wyoming and central Colorado this afternoon. As the upper level ridge slides east of the area on Friday, deep southwest flow is expected over the area with even warmer temperatures compared to today with highs in the mid 80's to mid 90's.
A cold front will move through the Northern Rockies today which will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development. Another concern is the high precipitable water across northwest Montana. A second cold front moves through the Northern Rockies on Friday and stalls out over north central Idaho into west central Montana.
Otherwise the forecast is on track with highs in the low 80s.
Temperatures have been warming aloft all day as the upper ridge axis has pushed out over northeast Colorado. On Friday, dry and warm southwesterly flow aloft is going to continue as the upper ridge makes its way to western Nebraska and Kansas. It will also drive temperatures into the lower 90s for the first time this year.
Latest surface analysis centers high pressure over southern Missouri, while H5 analysis depicts the local region under northwest flow aloft with an upper low to the northwest and a ridge axis to the west. Resultant northerly surface winds and northwest flow aloft have allowed temperatures to stay just under 80 today, but a warming trend will soon ensue as the upper ridge builds into the region.
649 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions into Friday morning, but expected scattered showers or storms by mid afternoon as low pressure and weak frontal boundary move into area. Cloud cover will gradually increase from the northwest overnight with a slight chance of showers after midnight across the far western counties as surface warm front approaches. There will be chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the entire forecast area the first half of Friday as warm front continues to slowly move east. coverage and intensity will pick up a little more during the afternoon and evening with daytime destabilization and a bit more surface convergence as weak low pressure center moves across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb.
230 PM PDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A cooling trend began today as a low pressure system approaches the region. This will bring cooler than normal and breezy conditions for the weekend as the system moves through. Big change in the weather finally taking hold of the Central California Interior as a weak disturbance moves through the region ahead of the main upper low.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure remains over the region.
207 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper low will spin across southwest Pennsylvania before moving into New England tonight. High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight into Friday, before a pair of disturbances drop southeast through the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night.
With increasing subsidence and light winds as the ridge moves east we can expect temps in the low to mid 80s.
Strong thermal ridge begins building over the High Plains Friday, with highs in the 90s beginning to nudge back into our western counties.
Then as a low pressure trough moves through the northern Rockies, showers and isolated thunderstorms with small hail and locally heavy rain will develop over the northern and western mountains Friday afternoon bringing some cooling.
318 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Tonight an upper ridge will be shifting eastward over the state the the axis expected to be about centered over CO by 12Z Fri. Then on Fri the ridge axis continues moving eastward over western KS by late in the afternoon. On Fri, drier air will be over the forecast area and will go with a dry forecast, along with warmer temps. Should see highs in the 90s across the plains, and in the 80s in the high valleys.
637 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Low pressure will approach from the south tonight and track south of the Gulf of Maine on Friday.
The frontal boundary across I- 90 will stall out and become north/south oriented as a warm front that will begin to push through the region on Friday. Based on the recent trends with temperatures, went on the high side of guidance once again.
Scattered convection was over northeast Mexico ahead of a weak short wave trough near the Big Bend region. Mid and high level clouds will increase over the region in advance of this short wave trough and associated convection this evening into the overnight hours. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to form in advance of the short wave trough moving into South Texas Sunday mainly over the coastal plains.
Overnight lows expected in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies once diurnal clouds dissipate, although there could be some stratus that redevelops late tonight. The weak front will return to the N/NE as a warm front ahead of another front approaching from the NW.
Moisture is on the increase as an upper level low moves up from the southwest.
* Low for ceilings AOB 5 kft Sunday afternoon * Low for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon Cool cyclonic flow persisting over the region as the strong low pressure system continues to pull away into Quebec this afternoon. Though the thermal trough has begun to recover, 850mb temps are still in the single digits lending to favorable low level lapse rates which are utilizing the remaining boundary level moisture to produce some afternoon cu. A bit more aggravated cu located over the thumb due to proximity to the low and even some showers developing in the narrow corridor of instability being shed off southern Lake MI which may brush Lenawee County this afternoon.
813 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 High pressure will provide dry but cool weather through Sunday.
1039 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Temperatures are running 10 to 15 degrees cooler today east of the divide than yesterday after last nights fropa. Southwest Wyoming on the other hand, closer to the high center over the Southwestern United States will remain dry.
604 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Currently, upper air analysis shows a broad, long wave trough over the eastern two thirds of North America. At the surface, low pressure exits over the southern plains, while high pressure sprawls across southern Canada. 850mb temperatures suggest another much below normal day on Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Models have almost uniformly trended south with the strongest forcing associated with a longwave trough progged to swing across the north central United States.
1023 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Currently, upper air analysis shows a broad, long wave trough over the eastern two thirds of North America. At the surface, low pressure exits over the southern plains, while high pressure sprawls across southern Canada. 850mb temperatures suggest another much below normal day on Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Models have almost uniformly trended south with the strongest forcing associated with a longwave trough progged to swing across the north central United States.
South winds will continue tonight and Sunday, with the higher speeds and gusts expected at KABI. /issued 329 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/ (Tonight) A developing lee cyclone over the Oklahoma panhandle has pulled a warm front to the north, allowing for strong south westerly flow across the entire area.
521 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Wildfire smoke from fires in British Columbia and Montana trapped under an area of high pressure will persist over Eastern Washington and North Idaho, otherwise dry conditions will linger through the weekend and through much of the upcoming workweek.
Upper level ridge over central SASK will drive 700 theta-e ridge over the southern valley farther south tonight and Sun.
Moisture is on the increase as an upper level low moves up from the southwest. Weak upper low off northern California has spread clouds across southwestern Oregon which should reach southern Harney County late this afternoon.
High pressure in eastern KY is extending ridging into the upper MS valley. This ridge separates a departing low in Quebec, and an incoming low in western KS. Better chances for rain will play out on Sunday in northern lower MI, as low pressure advances toward the lower OH Valley. But, with a coolish airmass in place and a warmer Lake MI, these may have somewhat more success in crossing the lake than one would otherwise expect.
506 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with weak cyclonic flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, weak Canadian high pressure has settled across the northern Plains, with a stationary boundary wedged against the east flank of the Rockies. Potential for severe weather later on Sunday looks minimal at this point, with less instability, good deal of clouds, and slightly cooler temps.
With a a warm atmosphere still in place, many minimum temperatures along the east coast metro will only drop to the low 80s, tying or breaking a few high minimum temperatures records. A 594 dm upper level high pressure cell continues to sit stagnant over the CWA, responsible for the subsidence and very warm weather.
On Sunday, a warm front will lift across the area and a disturbance will approach from the northwest.
With the upper low to the west cant discount the chance of additional convection forming overnight. Still seeing some storms fire from time to time over the Mexican Mountains, showing that there is enough lift out there due to the upper trough. Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge pushing up into Texas from the southwest with west-northwesterly flow over us. With the ridge building up convection was being kept to our east. A weakness in the ridge will develop tomorrow and we expect an increase in rain chances for Sunday and Sunday night.
942 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 A quasi-stationary cold front across southern NC south will return north was a warm front on Sunday. Another cold front will move into and stall over our region during the upcoming week. With it, the low- level frontal zone will likely also sag slightly farther south over the next couple of hours. High pressure will quickly move east off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the morning, with low level flow quickly becoming more southerly which will result in today's cold front lifting back north as a warm front, along with dwpts rebounding quickly to the upper 60s to lower 70s by late afternoon Sunday. In addition to the warm front lifting north, forcing for afternoon and evening shower/tstm activity may also include sea breeze/outflows across our southeast zones.
Sfc front will push NEWD as a warm front across mid state and eventually into the srn Ohio River Valley, along with developing swly upper level flow supporting weak disturbance passages aloft, by 06/24Z.
601 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Hudson Bay Low and associated trough into the central plains of Canada and the Great Lakes has a broad trough from the intermountain west into the eastern CONUS. There is some push back to this trough with the upper high centered over Florida. Sharp ridge continues along the west coast. With the upper trough overhead and numerous waves moving across western Nebraska thunderstorms have been initiating over and over today. Temperatures much cooler with the thick cloud cover on Sunday.
841 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 High pressure builds over the area through Sunday.
Overnight lows expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. The weak front will return to the N/NE as a warm front ahead of another front approaching from the NW.
722 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 VFR conditions expected through the period as dry air is in place behind a departed cold front.
The Pulley Ridge Buoy in the southeastern gulf reports 2 ft seas. However, the western flank of the high pressure ridge will remain in place across the Florida Keys, keeping prolonged easterly flow through the work week. The Bermuda high pressure center will gradually migrate eastward to the Central Atlantic midweek, but conditions relatively steady with winds out of the east. The low temperature so far today at Key West International Airport is 85 degrees.
731 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 High pressure returns this afternoon into Sunday as a cold front stalls over the Carolinas.
836 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Cooler and drier weather is in store for most of this weekend thanks to high pressure building into the state behind the cold front.
1126 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Hudson Bay Low and associated trough into the central plains of Canada and the Great Lakes has a broad trough from the intermountain west into the eastern CONUS. There is some push back to this trough with the upper high centered over Florida. Sharp ridge continues along the west coast. With the upper trough overhead and numerous waves moving across western Nebraska thunderstorms have been initiating over and over today. Temperatures much cooler with the thick cloud cover on Sunday.
Clear skies and below normal temps expected behind a departed cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 87 72 82 / 0 40 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 86 69 80 / 0 20 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 60 86 69 80 / 0 20 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 84 66 78 / 0 10 60 80.
716 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Cooler and drier weather is in store for most of this weekend thanks to high pressure building into the state behind the cold front.
IFR/LIFR conditions to continue at least temporarily ahead of a cold front set to move through the area later today/tonight. Temps mainly on track to reach into the lower 70s north to the lower 80s south. The cold front will sweep across the region late today and early tonight shifting winds to west to northwest with gusts up to 30 knots possible.
Temperatures have been steadily falling behind the cold front that moved through this morning. There is still some light freezing drizzle occuring over the I-65 corridor and this may continue off and on into the early afternoon.
79 The upper level pattern will remain amplified on Saturday with a ridge across the western U. and a trough in the east.
1200 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 A cold front is racing east across the Gulf of Mexico and will likely push through the Florida Keys overnight and Saturday morning. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s, a few ticks above MOS predictions. From synopsis, a cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, approach Florida Keys coastal waters tonight, and move through the area Saturday. In the wake of the cold front, an expansive continental high pressure system will advance southward, maintaining fresh to strong north to northeast breezes.
A weak warm front will lift northeast across the area tonight into Saturday morning for a bit more rain.
A cold front will push through the area later this afternoon and evening, shifting winds to the west and become gusty for a short time.
High pressure aloft will bring warm and dry weather through the long weekend.