Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures could drop off efficiently over east central MN and western WI as winds subside this evening, but kept them above 5 degrees in the coldest locations due to the high clouds. As for the cold outbreak beginning this weekend, models have trended warmer - possibly due to the lack of snow cover from southern and western MN to the south and west. Weak disturbances tracking along the impressive baroclinic zone will be capable of bringing milder air northward temporarily (teens and maybe 20s) while frigid air remains in place northeast of the warm front.
Seasonably warm temperatures and shower activity across the West Central Mountains and Baker County of OR today ahead of an approaching trough. As the trough advances towards the area, the pressure gradient will tighten to produce gusty to breezy wind, especially across eastern Oregon and into southwestern Idaho. Models continue to show a notable push of moisture associated with this trough, with some areas seeing significant snowfall with the event. With the tilt of the trough axis, snowfall across the West Central Mountains will weaken by the mid to late morning hours of Wednesday, while much of the rest of south- central Idaho continues to see snowfall.
239 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 A flow of mild and moist air from the Ohio Valley will precede the passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Following the cold front, gusty west to northwest winds of 25-35 mph at times will develop tonight and last through the midday hours Wednesday.
Upper trof over the southern Queen Charlotte Islands of British Columbia will dive SE into the southern Intermountain West.
This high will quickly move east and by 06Z tonight, breezy east-southeast winds will already be starting up over central SD as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the low pressure taking shape over the northern Rockies. Generally went with a CONSMOS feel for winds which seemed to highlight the higher speeds anticipated given the pressure gradient and available MET/MAV guidance.
306 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 A weak high pressure ridge will move across the area tonight and tomorrow with some clouds and lighter winds. The zonal pattern will give way to a trough pattern with split flow. A trough will develop in the southwest and move out into the plains toward the end of the week.
Warm air advection in the lower and mid levels is very strong through the day and focused right over the heart of southeast SD, but with no instability, a general lack of moisture and the deeper dendritic temperatures to the north precipitation is not expected.
125 PM MST Tue Dec 19 2017 Upper ridging covers the northwestern CONUS, and a low pressure system is pushing into the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move onshore tonight. As the 850 mb low crosses the Rockies, a warm front will begin pushing into the northern plains. Temperatures Wednesday will depend on the track of the low and where the warm front sets up, but they are expected to range from the 30s across northwestern SD to near 60 across southwestern SD. Models continue to show the track of the upper low through the Four Corners region, weakening as it transitions eastward.
Morning lows in the low to mid 20s may be accompanied by a few lake effect cloud streamers, but rapidly diminishing moisture quality will limit potential.
236 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 A cold front will sweep east through the region this evening and will be followed by a secondary front on Wednesday.
Surface ridging quickly slides east on Wednesday and clouds increase during the day ahead of broad low pressure over western Plains.
1210 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 High pressure will remain in control across the region today. A weak cold front will push south across the area late this afternoon, followed by another weak cold front late tonight.
A strong upper level ridge will maintain dry conditions across Western Washington through Thursday. The ridge will begin breaking down on Thursday, allowing a weak cold front to bring a little rain late Thursday night into Friday morning. An upper level trough will follow the front Friday afternoon.
After temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s today will have temperatures in the lower to mid 50s on Friday (could have some partial clearing NW late in the afternoon).
400 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 Water vapor loop an upper level trough over southeast MT/WY border and was moving to the south/southeast around 50 knots.
A cold front will move through during the day today, and we will continue to carry increasing rain chances behind the front for tonight with the lower values near the coast and the higher values offshore.
253 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 06Z surface data has the cold front running from northwest Ohio, into southeast Iowa, and then to the eastern Dakotas.
A fast moving trough will move through the Four Corners on Thursday bringing an increase in clouds, some breeziness, and a slight chance of precipitation to far southeast Arizona.
A low pressure system moves through Pennsylvania early this morning, bringing widespread light to moderate snow areawide, followed by more mostly light lake effect snow showers later today into tonight. Snow will mostly die in place between 5 and 10 AM as the low transfers to the coast. On the back side of the low the flow shifts to NW late this morning bringing more lake moisture into our NY counties especially the Syracuse metro. Friday the flow shifts to the southwest ahead another weak system in the form of a weak cold front. Temperatures will rise into the low and mid 20s. Residual lake-effect bands Thursday evening should weaken over time and lift northward, as high pressure builds in, and the flow backs into the SW.
The combination of increasing clouds and greater boundary layer mixing will yield warmer low temps tonight, with most locations only falling into the l-m 30s. A cold front will be pushing south of the area early Thursday morning, leaving northwest flow across the TN Valley. Zonal flow will take hold of the upper level pattern, while high pressure builds at the surface. With this trough, clouds will increase, with mostly cloudy conditions expected on Friday. This will keep temperatures from warming too much during the day and afternoon highs will only top out in the lower 40s.
1024 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Areas of freezing drizzle continue late this evening and have expanded into the James Valley. Reports of freezing drizzle received across northeast SD along with some icy conditions. Weak lift along a frontal boundary draped across northeast SD will continue producing patchy freezing drizzle and light snow through this evening. The precipitation should mainly impact the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills. The upper level flow pattern remains progressive through the extended with a number of troughs moving through the northern plains.
A cold front now moving into northern Missouri will continue southward, passing through southern sections of the state by early morning.
1252 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Low pressure will continue to move east, further away from the area overnight. High pressure will then build into the area for Thursday.
JHM Strong high pressure will continue to dominate NorCal weather through Friday.
239 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 Cloud coverage increasing over the area this morning as moisture associated with a backdoor cold front continues to overspread the area. Abundant cloud cover combined with continued cold air advection will lead to noticeably cooler temperatures today as highs barely reach the lower 40s. ridge begins to breakdown and a zonal flow develops downstream over the Plains. This should lead to increasing flow over the Rockies and leeside trough development through the day on Friday, with southwesterly flow redeveloping in a warm air advection regime downstream over the Plains. This should result in warmer temperatures with upper 40s possible across the western zones, while lingering cloud cover keeps areas further to the east in the lower 40s.
Lingering low level moisture across the southwest does have the potential to create areas of freezing fog or freezing drizzle through most of the night. Confidence was not high enough to extend the winter weather advisories for freezing drizzle. Dense Freezing Fog developed quickly this evening from Helena to Homestake Pass. with a Freezing Fog Advisory issued as a result. The southern valleys have this same potential for dense freezing fog. Anglin Snow will diminish across southwest Montana through tonight, with areas of freezing fog possible for central and southwestern portions. High pressure building aloft will bring clear skies across the area for Thursday.
winds continuing to slowly decrease and temperatures climbing into the 40s across the lower elevations this afternoon and falling into the 20s tonight.
A cold front located just north of the Interstate 70 corridor will continue to push southeast and clear the region by the middle of this evening. The gusty winds will continue overnight behind the cold front then decrease around sunrise over the entire area as the trough moves away from the area and a ridge of high pressure moves over the region. Otherwise, another cold night with lows in the low to mid 20s.
Behind this system, a ridge of high pressure will slide across the region Thursday and Thursday night with cold but mainly dry conditions.
Areas of freezing drizzle continue late this evening and have expanded into the James Valley. Reports of freezing drizzle received across northeast SD along with some icy conditions. Weak lift along a frontal boundary draped across northeast SD will continue producing patchy freezing drizzle and light snow through this evening. The precipitation should mainly impact the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills. The upper level flow pattern remains progressive through the extended with a number of troughs moving through the northern plains.
255 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 A weak and dry surface cold front will push south through the area today. An area of low pressure will develop along the NC coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday night.
A cold front is expected to move though the Rio Grande Valley late in the period. /issued Issued by National Weather Service NEW ORLEANS LA/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Large expansive cirrus deck invading from the wests through the Lower Rio Grande Valley this afternoon with a tap well into the tropical Pacific.
428 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front will brush the region late Friday. Satellite imagery shows breaks in the low clouds pushing south across the western part of the forecast area. High pressure over the region at the start of the period will quickly move off to the southeast. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Friday with a trailing cold front brushing the forecast area later in the day.
Cold front is currently northwest of CKV but will move through all four terminals by 13z.
The 4 pm subjective surface analysis showed a complex frontal system associated with a 992 mb low over western Michigan, and a weak, flat ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed northwest, dry, sinking flow over our forecast area, on the southwest flank of a broad trough over the northeast quadrant of the CONUS. Weak low-level warm advection and increasing high-level moisture will prevent low temperatures from freezing, with lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. In the upper levels a longwave trough remains over the Central and Eastern U. At the surface a weak cold front will move through on Friday.
1147 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 For the 06Z TAFs, a minor upper level low pressure system will move across the area Thursday accompanied by an increase in mid and high level clouds. /Issued 548 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/ For the 00Z TAFs, a minor upper level low pressure system will move across the area late tonight and Thursday accompanied by an increase in mid and high level clouds.
1221 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Rapidly moving low pressure will continue the snow overnight. Snow will end across much of the region around dawn save some lingering snow showers over the ridges. Wind gusts on the higher ridges bear watching, as instability could partially mix down 40-50 knot winds just off the surface in tight isobar packing behind the low. This will bring a quick end to the bulk of the snow with the exception of the ridges and perhaps the I-80 corridor, as much colder air rushes southward behind the exiting system. This will greatly hinder the development of lake bands and also will cutoff the ridge snow by mid to late morning.
1125 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A dry cold front that swept into the region today will exit to the southeast this evening.
Temperatures could be cold enough in the low-levels with a light rain/snow mix possible for Central Kansas on Thursday night.
413 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Rapidly moving low pressure will continue the snow overnight. Snow will end across much of the region around dawn save some lingering snow showers over the ridges. This will bring a quick end to the bulk of the snow with the exception of the ridges and perhaps the I-80 corridor, as much colder air rushes southward behind the exiting system. This will greatly hinder the development of lake bands and also will cutoff the ridge snow by mid to late morning.
Patches of light snow and flurries, and even freezing drizzle early this evening, will continue across the area overnight. Impacts for the next couple systems appear to be less as there is less wind and the threat for freezing rain is negligible. For this system also, wind speeds look to stay on the lower end, which should lessen its impact.
The influence of the Pacific area of high pressure will continue today, with a northerly flow as the axis remains offshore. Low stratus and fog are still expected today under the ridge with its continued inversion. An approaching trough will begin to advance towards the area tonight, helping to flatten the ridge during its approach, giving at least a brief reprieve from the current inversion. The trough axis will approach eastern Oregon on Friday afternoon, with the development of showers possible though limited in coverage.
The associated cold front is not very sharp, but winds will continue to veer to northwest through the evening while gradually diminishing. A broader and weaker upper-level trough will move through the region Thursday night and Friday, but there will be no moisture for it to work with, so our area will remain dry. It will feel quite a bit cooler Thursday, but that is as much due to cloud cover as cold advection.
The attendant cold front is aligned southeast of a line from KSYM to KGLW. Lower clouds will diminish into this evening, as drier air advects in; however, mid-level clouds will continue aloft, as a short wave trough moves through the Ohio Valley. The clouds will keep the low temperatures from achieving readings similar to yesterday morning. Friday will see decreasing clouds, as the short wave trough exits off to our east. Highs will be similar to today, generally between 35 and 40 degrees, with locations in the north perhaps a degree or so warmer compared to today.
With ample cloud cover expected thru peak heating and CAA continuing thru the day, have trended temps today twd the cooler guidance. With cloud cover anticipated to persist thru tonight, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Expect breaks in the low clouds to develop today. While fewer breaks in the high clouds are expected, thinner spots are very possible, allowing more heating than currently expected. Otherwise, another cold night with lows in the low to mid 20s.
Adjusted lows a bit as the Lake of the Woods region has dropped into the low single digits. Impacts for the next couple systems appear to be less as there is less wind and the threat for freezing rain is negligible. For this system also, wind speeds look to stay on the lower end, which should lessen its impact.
1104 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Gusty northwesterly winds will continue to diminish across the region through the evening and overnight hours as the pressure gradient continues to relax behind this mornings cold front. despite the cooler airmass that has filtered in across the region. As the atmosphere begins to saturate down to the lower levels ahead of this disturbance.
The low temperature forecast for tonight was lowered by several degrees across the northern half of McCurtain County and adjacent portions of extreme Southwest Arkansas. Meanwhile, a weak cold front extending from near the DFW Metroplex into SE OK/Wrn AR will slowly drift S into extreme NE TX/SW AR overnight, before seeping S across the remainder of the region Thursday. Cold front draped across srn OK will continue to slowly make its way through our region late tonight into Thursday morning, reinforcing the relatively cool airmass already in place.
1136 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 Update Low pressure tracking near the southern Michigan border will bring heavy snow to parts of southern and central lower Michigan this evening before ending overnight.
251 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Weak high pressure builds across the region today while a weak disturbance moves by to our south.
The best chance for accumulating snow is north of the low track. South of this area over most of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio, have trended snow amounts down where very dry air entrainment, max upward velocity outside of the dendritic zone and warmer boundary level temperatures may greatly limit snowfall. After this system passes, milder weather will follow with high temperatures rising well above freezing as the upper level flow becomes more high zonal.
Dry weather continues this week as high pressure resides over California a little longer.
1202 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure will persist across the region through Thursday.
With decreasing winds and clearing skies, expect temperatures to fall into the low teens by daybreak. North winds winds will be gusty this evening behind the low.
1020 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern IL, with tight pressure gradient extending back to the west across much of the Dakotas and Central Plains. Upper level analysis shows high amplitude ridge remaining along the west coast, with a long wave trough over the eastern US. Clouds are increasing from the west-northwest with temps mostly in the 40s, some 30s across the higher Black Hills. A more active pattern is expected over the next several days as ridge gradually flattens over the western US and a series of disturbances pass through the region. A low pressure system will slide south-southeast across the Dakotas late tonight and Thursday, bringing increasing winds and some colder air.
An extensive cirrus shield has shown signs of gradually building more NNE across E TX/N LA late this evening, and see no reason for this not to continue through the period as an upper low over Baja is reinforced by a digging upper trough diving S through the Rockies, thus providing a WSW flow aloft over the region. In addition, a weak cold front extending from Wcntrl TX through the DFW Metroplex into SE OK/Wrn and Nrn AR will gradually seep S into NE TX/SW AR through/shortly after daybreak Thursday, eventually drifting S across and S of the I-20 corridor during the afternoon. The low temperature forecast for tonight was lowered by several degrees across the northern half of McCurtain County and adjacent portions of extreme Southwest Arkansas.
Deepening upper low was centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon with downstream strong cold air advection keeping northeast Kansas on the cool and gusty side. Northwest winds generally from 15 to 25 mph with gusts in excess of 40 mph at times are expected to weaken around 10 mph as an upstream area of high pressure shifts southeast across central Kansas this evening. 850 mb ridge builds over the region tomorrow afternoon as winds back to the west and southwest around 10 mph. Temperatures associated with the ridge increase from 12-14C over north central Kansas. Further east, weaker winds and subsequent mixing result in highs in the lower 70s.
733 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Upper level trough with isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday. Cooler weather midweek. Another strong upper trough/low with associated cold front this weekend. Currently in a drier slot of air as seen on the water vapor imagery, ahead of the digging 500hPa trough axis. It appears the highest chance of getting wet will be across northern and western locations.
1017 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Upper level trough with isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday. Cooler weather midweek. Another strong upper trough/low with associated cold front this weekend. Worked on the overnight lows with minor adjustments overall, and dropped the high temperatures in the mountains for Wednesday, given the clouds and 850mb temperatures that will continue to fall. Only a few degrees above freezing for Snowshoe. It appears the highest chance of getting wet will be across northern and western locations.
The base of an upper level trough is currently making its way through AR/MS and will pass east through the area overnight. As the trough swings east and daytime heating is lost, clouds will also diminish with clear skies returning, most likely, by midnight. Dry weather should continue for the Wed-Thu timeframe, as cool high pressure builds from northern Rockies to the NW Gulf region, producing a more westerly wind. Light winds and clear skies would support patchy late night frosting (again within those normally cooler spots).
Temps not likely to fall much more tonight as warmer air moves in at 925 mb. The breezy northwest winds will persist through the afternoon but should begin to decrease this evening as brief surface ridging quickly passes through. Following the ridging, a weak clipper system is progged to quickly swing through the far northeastern forecast area late this evening and overnight. Clouds may inhibit how much sunshine we see (especially north and east) but a brief shot of decent warm advection should push high temperatures into the 60s along and west of the Red River Valley (slightly cooler 50s in the east).
1047 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A deep trough continues to dig into the east coast, while strong ridging builds over the west.
1212 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Broad low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week. Mostly clear skies expected overnight in an area of dry advection wedged between the main trough axis and the departing frontal boundary to the east. As the upper low moves east of the region Wednesday night, the chance for showers will drop off. Have continued with the chance for snow in the highest elevations, although temperatures right around the freezing mark should not allow for any snow to stick.
/Issued 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 by National Weather Service AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/ Continued northerly flow over the region due to the passage of another cold front this morning will continue this evening and into the overnight hours. Wednesday will be quite nice across the CWA with high pressure over the area.
/issued 141 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/ An upper ridge remains over the Western US with a trough over the east.
/issued 353 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/ A nice fall day across the forecast area as we are on the back side of a longwave trough across the region. This has allowed for northerly winds to continue to pump in cooler drier air into the region. Temps overnight should dip into the lower 40s and even perhaps the upper 30s across the northern portions of the forecast area.