Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
739 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH DEEPENED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY.
CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT THIS HOUR MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETTING SQUEEZED BUT STILL HOLDING ON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH DEEPENED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
THAT SAME MODEL DOES SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT 09Z-ISH IN THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID- 60S.
1046 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND PULL NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY WITH MORE DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. A NEW COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
1202 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
APPEARS AS THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH. THAT SAME MODEL DOES SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT 09Z-ISH IN THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.
736 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE AREA INDICATES STORM ORGANIZATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MIDWEEK.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT. EARLY SUMMER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
940 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND AS OF 02Z WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF AN ELD. FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALONG A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/NW LA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN TIER OF PARISHES ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. /ISSUED 549 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ARKADELPHIA AR THROUGH QUITMAN TX THIS SATURDAY EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE S TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
912 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE AS AN OCCLUDING/COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE HIGHLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE DEEP LOW OVER OHIO. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND LOWER CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF FL AND WEAKENS.
621 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCT TSTMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE.
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PENETRATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SW MONTANA. ISOLATED TS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND PULL NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
825 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 COLD FRONT PASSING EAST OF MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST.
CLOUDS AND SUBSTANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA. PROBABLY RECORDS HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THE LOWS FALLING TO THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. SOUTH TO 15 KNOTS UP TROUGH 10K FEET MSL. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WARM IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SHOWERS. RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN CANADA AFTER WED. CURRENT TREND SHOWS THE ECMWF BACKING OFF MOVING TROUGH INTO CANADA.
THIS WAS DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THUS COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE DISCUSSION FROM THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFD THAT COVERS FROM THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALMOST TO THE DIVIDE. FLAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. JOHNSON COUNTY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN SUNDAY AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM SUNDAY WEST. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE EXPECTED TODAY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST WY AS THE SFC FRONT RETREATS NORTHEAST.
THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND RAINS FROM EARLIER WOULD SUGGEST FOG BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE.
CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES.
419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST/DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW STRATUS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECTING PRECIP TO START BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE MIDDLE/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION/OHIO VALLEY. AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE MID SOUTH ALONG THE CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-40 AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE STRATUS SHOULD BE GONE BUT ALREADY ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN H500 TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER BACK ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
WARM FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SLOWLY DRIFTING N. DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE WARMER AND MUGGIER. MODEL SOLNS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND A DRY SLOT DVLPG AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MODELS ALL SHOW PRECIP FRI NIGHT AHD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. BUT THIS CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ELEVATED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX/MEX WILL DEEPEN FRI AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS LED TO TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NEAR THIS OH RIVER WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOWING COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST, AND MASSENA AND POTSDAM SHOWING GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30S KTS. 850 MILLIBAR JET MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
WE HAVE AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH HEAVY WX FRI/SAT.
THE NAM AND GFS APPEARED TO BE DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S DESPITE THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH ENDED UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED. SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY. COOLED OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
High pressure expected to build back into the Midwest tonight, eventually eroding the clouds towards morning with lighter winds. Ridge axis moves over the region tomorrow, with some variability to the lighter winds and sunny, highs warmer than today into the upper 50s. Deep upper low over the southern states moving out across the country as another upper low and developing low pressure system moves across the southern border of Canada.
WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS BEGUN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HEIGHT RISES FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE JET ENERGY EAST OF OUR REGION BY 18Z. MOISTURE STARTS SURGING BACK TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BUT QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH.
1202 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.
200 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO TONIGHT. WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDEM STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET BY FRIDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO HAVE INCREASED TO NEARLY 50 KTS ACROSS THE CWA. DEW POINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THOSE ISOLATED POCKETS OCCUR OVER SATURATED LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE HIGH RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35).
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS DISSIPATED BUT SHOWERS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. AND SHOW THE SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA THRU 22Z. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WAS QUICKLY ERODING THE LOWER CLOUDS.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH A TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR. MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES. BUT WILL PUT IN SL CHC POPS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME W/NWRLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID STATE.
Based on radar trends, have expanded the slight chance PoPs eastward to cover all of southeast New Mexico, western portions of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos through this afternoon. The rest of the forecast looks to be on track, with precipitation chances increasing ahead of the approaching upper trough. /issued 428 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ An upper trough is currently over the western conus and is expected to deepen and move eastward during the day. Temperatures will be warmer this afternoon compared with yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s. As this upper trough begins to move over the region, rain and storm chances will spread eastward and significantly increase tonight into Friday morning.
Rain will spread eastward through our forecast area Friday night as an upper level trough approaches from the Plains.
AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGES CLOSER.
THE CULPRIT WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE EJECTING UPPER LOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS GETTING ORGANIZED IN WEST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
316 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLIER. AT THIS POINT THIS UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL COME AT US IN PIECES AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DRAGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.
323 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. AND WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AND AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE.
405 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front extending from near Atlanta through Pensacola, then west- southwestward to the TX coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a weak southern stream short wave trough translating quickly eastward across AL. Later tonight, drier air behind the aforementioned cold front will filter into our region from the northwest.
A SFC THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MANITOBA.
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.
306 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS SITUATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
250 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 Upper low, currently moving over the Desert Southwest, will continue an eastward progression tonight into Friday.
411 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LARGE STRETCH OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW WILL ALSO LIFT OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TEMPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE WEST.
1138 AM MDT THU OCT 29 2015 RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
408 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.
END RESULT WILL BE SUBFREEZING TEMPS FOR A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD AT MANY LOCATIONS. COMPLEX TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK. HOWEVER THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY HIGH IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS RIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTOGENESIS BY FRIDAY NIGHT IS BOTTLED UP MOSTLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LIKED THE WAY A LOT OF BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AND REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA.
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PER HRRR THE LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS INTO THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING PSBLY INTO PARTS OF THE RRV MORE TOWARD 06Z.
321 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A COOL WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD ACCOMPANY A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
Rain and Thunderstorms Likely Starting Tonight and into Friday Deep upper trough currently over southern Arizona will continue to head eastward over the next couple days. May see isolated strong storms over the southern half of the area where CAPE values may approach 1000, but cloud cover and cooler temperatures will limit instability.
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
Based on radar trends, have expanded the slight chance PoPs eastward to cover all of southeast New Mexico, western portions of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos through this afternoon. The rest of the forecast looks to be on track, with precipitation chances increasing ahead of the approaching upper trough. VFR wx will prevail thru the day in advance of another upper level trough. /issued 428 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ An upper trough is currently over the western conus and is expected to deepen and move eastward during the day. Temperatures will be warmer this afternoon compared with yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s. As this upper trough begins to move over the region, rain and storm chances will spread eastward and significantly increase tonight into Friday morning.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO DECORAH IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
344 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
430 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING OF THIS IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GFS AND NAM WILL LEAN TOWARDS DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING WHILE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MET AND MAV SUGGESTS.
Upper trough was located over the western states and will gradually move to the east into the ROckies tonight while ejecting energy northeastward out into the plains.
107 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 A LARGE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A RIDGE BEGAN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SURGE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS OF 08Z TODAY LOWS HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HOWEVER TEMPS COULD QUICKLY FALL NEAR FREEZING UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD.