Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most of this activity has shifted west into the waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge and out to the Dry Tortugas. A few showers have on occasion passed over mainly the Lower Keys. Radar estimates show around one-tenth of an inch of rainfall accumulation occurred across portions of the Lower Keys.
A cooler and drier airmass will dominate this period as high pressure pushes in. May see some diurnal CU pop up on Monday and then clear off again into Monday night with the high pressure ridge axis sliding off to our east.
Gusty west-northwesterly winds are mixing to the surface out ahead of the trough, producing wind gusts of 25-35 mph across much of Upper Michigan. by this evening from the trough pushing eastward. As the trough exits the U. Amplifying west coast ridging leads to a prolonged period of troughiness and near to below normal temperatures across the Great Lakes region.
1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over the southern half of the country during the short term period. The low level flow beneath the ridge is from the southeast and this pattern will also continue.
The region remains positioned between Bermuda high pressure to the east, an expansive upper ridge to the west, and a weak upper trough over the northern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak lee-side trough has set up across the western Midlands and upper CSRA. Lows tonight forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. Upper pattern continues to show a weak upper low sandwiched between the Bermuda high in the western Atlantic and the southern Mississippi Valley Ridge.
1203 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) High pressure will continue to be the main feature across the region.
There is a possibility of an isolated shower over south central SD towards morning on Monday, though dry air in the low levels will keep any precipitation very light.
1211 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (The rest of today ) Excessive heat will continue to build this afternoon as low level thermal ridge re-expands across much of eastern OK.
Short-term models vary in how convection will move off the high plains this evening with the areal trend and marginal risk for severe thunderstorms aligning higher pops for the far southwest this evening through midnight. The main story in the short term is the cooler temperatures expected across the region. With the passage of the front yesterday, cooler air will filter in out of Canada bringing some relief to the extremely hot temperatures of the past week. Highs today will drop into the mid to upper 80s with highs on Monday even cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. In addition to cooler air, isolated thunderstorms are expected both this evening and Monday evening.
Hi-res models keep almost all precipitation and convection north and east of the Divide along the high terrain of Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Low temperatures for tomorrow morning will widely be in the low 50s and 60s.
This is largely due to a strong high pressure centered just east of Bermuda. Aloft in the low and mid levels the subtropical ridge continues to dominate across the central Atlantic with the ridge axis extending well west across Florida and the entire span of the Gulf of Mexico.
One last day of normal temperatures while an upper trough moves from the Idaho Panhandle to western Montana. Hotter beginning Monday and lasting all week as the core of high pressure aloft shifts from the desert southwest to the interior northwest US.
1118 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Current surface shows high pressure across the Northern Plains. Broad upper trof sets up across the Northern Plains this week, shunting the heat south and west of the area. Ridge rebuilds across the Rockies for the end of the week, with warmer temperatures returning.
Monday Night Through Sunday High pressure will bring dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal temperatures for Monday night.
149 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 An upper low over western Montana will move east and provide an active 12-18 hours of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. %his, along with ascent from the upper low will be enough for thunderstorms (some of which could be severe) to develop. A cold front will push through the forecast area late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. High temperatures on Monday will be cooler than today, with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge directly over the Southern Plains, in the process of redeveloping east. Temperatures Monday should be identical to today's or even a bit cooler.
(The rest of today ) Excessive heat will continue to build this afternoon as low level thermal ridge re-expands across much of eastern OK.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in above normal temperatures.
The upper level ridge that has dominated weather patterns for the past week will begin to push eastward over the next few days. Rain chances will begin to increase Monday, as a cold front stalls over the TN/KY state border. This combined with the ridge pushing east could lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the northern portions of the CWA starting tomorrow.
125 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) Late update to better monitor conditions going into the afternoon with top of the hour readings in the lower 90s northern half where we have more sunshine. 24 hours ago we were 2-3 degrees cooler, and dew points are plus or minus 1-2. However, the drier soil at DeQueen and El Dorado have them some 6 and 4 degrees warmer, but still upper 90s HX respectively speaking. Otherwise it will be a daily numbers game to be determined overnight after accessing the highs and peak HX for the previous day.
226 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 A cold front is making inroads into our forecast area early this afternoon with dry, northwesterly flow beginning to scour out our still fairly soupy airmass. Recent mesoanalysis and area soundings suggest some degree of capping will remain in place, especially north and west of I-55, through the afternoon thanks to a layer of warmer air aloft around 700 mb which suggests the thunder threat should remain fairly low. Farther south and east, temperatures aloft are cooler, although widespread cloud cover left over from morning convection has muted diurnal reductions in MLCIN. Somewhat cooler conditions will prevail on Monday with highs generally in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
The models suggest that may be some showers into the evening in E Upper as the 500 mb short moves through, otherwise, sfc and 500 mb ridges begin to build into the region and some clearing will begin.
12Z guidance came in lower than expected for highs today probably due to the high clouds moving in from the north. Late tomorrow morning showers and possibly thunderstorms will move in as a cold front approaches but the best chance for impacts will be after 18z in the afternoon. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 91 73 90 74 / 10 50 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 73 88 73 / 10 60 40 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 73 89 72 87 72 / 10 60 40 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 88 69 84 70 / 20 70 50 70 20.
Will keep likely PoPs late tonight into Monday morning over central and southeast Missouri when the low level jet will intesect the front ahead of a mid level vort max. Highs on Monday will be cooler with highs along I-70 only around 80 degrees because of the expected clouds and weak cold air advection.
Most of the thunderstorm activity should move out of the area by around 9pm with some lingering showers behind the low before more widespread clearing occurs after midnight. A northwesterly flow becomes established over the region Monday to the SW of a larger scale upper level trough across Canada. A cooler airmass also slides south into the area Monday with the the most noticeable cooling occurring across the north-central MT plains where temperatures will be a few degrees below seasonal averages.
The rain chances will be enhanced and sustained as an upper low/inverted trough currently positioned over the southern tip of Texas approaches the area on Monday.
We are seeing a few showers developing on just ahead of the surface cold front late this afternoon but these are not expected to become much more heavy rain showers until they get south of I-94 toward evening. Once the cold front clears the area skies should clear from northwest to southeast overnight.
Little change on the low end with a warm evening last night and looking to edge to persistence plus a degree or so everywhere if not tonight, tomorrow night.
Presently, we are situated in northwest flow aloft with an expansive mean ridge to our west. At the surface, high pressure is keeping the sky mainly blue and wind light. The aforementioned trough will swing down into western South Dakota tonight, potentially giving the southwest and south central a glancing blow with chances of mainly showers. The main trough will then ride down the ridge to our northwest on Monday, transitioning us briefly into zonal flow through much of the day. Monday will be a bit warmer than today with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s.
A surface pressure trough will remain well to the northwest of the area with the upper ridge suppressing convective development this afternoon. Flat upper ridging is poised to remain over much of the southeastern CONUS through at least midweek.
236 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Clouds (and a few sprinkles) have persisted across much of northern Kansas into this afternoon, resulting in temperatures 20 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Exact location of heaviest precipitation is a bit uncertain, but ensembles favor areas between I-80 and the KS/NE state line to have the highest totals. Monday has continued to trend cooler as models indicate that clouds and possibly even some rain showers may hang around into the afternoon hours.
The upper ridge begins to shift east, becoming centered over the Lower/Mid Mississippi River juncture by Monday evening. For tonight, the soupy airmass in combination with upper subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep low temperatures tonight around to a bit above seasonal norms.
136 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Plume of monsoon moisture continues to advect NE in an WAA regime ahead of the western MT upper trough. Cooler weather with temps around normal can then be expected Wed and Thur as lower heights settle into the Northern Plains. A warming trend will then ensue toward the end of the week as the western CONUS ridge re-builds back into the region.
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Chances for showers and storms remain this evening ahead of a cold front. Dry, cooler and less humid air overspreads the region to start the workweek, though chances of showers and thunderstorms return by midweek. Latest visible satellite imagery showing some agitation to linear cu field associated with low level convergence tied to cold front pushing east through extreme southwest Wisconsin/northeast Illinois, albeit still relatively shallow returns.
(Rest of Today) Latest model guidance suggests that a mid-level subtropical high will remain centered across the southern High Plains today, as a pronounced ridge axis extending eastward from the high expands across the Mid-South, TN Valley and southern Appalachians. In the lower-levels, light southwest to south-southwesterly flow will persist along the western edge of a broad surface anticyclone situated to the immediate northeast of Bermuda, and this will maintain weak boundary layer moisture advection across the local area.
/Issued 1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022/ /This afternoon through Monday/ The upper level subtropical ridge centered across Oklahoma and Arkansas will remain in control of our weather with mostly sunny skies, hot temperatures, and dry weather prevailing. Temperatures will again top out around 100 degrees for the entire area today, and it should be about a degree warmer tomorrow. The work week will be no exception to the triple digit heat as the upper level ridge extends east toward the Southeastern US.
144 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Upper level Low currently over the Montana/Idaho border will push east southeast this afternoon, opening up into a weak wave as it does.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Monday/ The upper level subtropical ridge centered across Oklahoma and Arkansas will remain in control of our weather with mostly sunny skies, hot temperatures, and dry weather prevailing. Temperatures will again top out around 100 degrees for the entire area today, and it should be about a degree warmer tomorrow.
(This afternoon through Monday) Late update to better monitor conditions going into the afternoon with top of the hour readings in the lower 90s northern half where we have more sunshine. 24 hours ago we were 2-3 degrees cooler, and dew points are plus or minus 1-2. However, the drier soil at DeQueen and El Dorado have them some 6 and 4 degrees warmer, but still upper 90s HX respectively speaking. Otherwise it will be a daily numbers game to be determined overnight after accessing the highs and peak HX for the previous day.
The mid-level low pressure system that has been spinning over north-central Idaho and west-central Montana today, will slowly move further east and south through this evening. Monday will be another very warm day across the entire Northern Rockies as a strong high pressure builds over central Washington.
Will continue with the heat advisory as triple digit temperatures are expected areawide and heat index values 105-110 in the east where humidity will be the highest.
RAIN ON THE WAY: Current surface analysis has last night's cold front stalled across northern Kansas and light showers working along that front from west to east.
We continue to see ridging to our north with an east to southeast flow throughout the forecast period.
324 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 A few light showers around with a secondary push of cooler air today, should diminish along with the associated CU field this evening. Northwest winds should drop off and become light and variable overnight as high pressure moved overhead. The period starts with a surface boundary impacting the area with showers and a few storms, and cooler air filtering in as the system departs.
The remainder of the week is more of the same, streamlines do begin to shift toward the end of the week, as high pressure develops over the northwestern Great Basin. Light winds away from storms, with much cooler temperatures.
Temperatures are cooler this afternoon, with current temperatures in the panhandle in the 80s, and 70s and 60s in Wyoming. Thunderstorms have begun to develop over the high terrain and plains of northern Colorado.
Plume of monsoon moisture continues to advect NE in an WAA regime ahead of the western MT upper trough. Cooler weather with temps around normal can then be expected Wed and Thur as lower heights settle into the Northern Plains. A warming trend will then ensue toward the end of the week as the western CONUS ridge re-builds back into the region.
A few light showers around with a secondary push of cooler air today, should diminish along with the associated CU field this evening. Northwest winds should drop off and become light and variable overnight as high pressure moved overhead. The period starts with a surface boundary impacting the area with showers and a few storms, and cooler air filtering in as the system departs.
Cooler weather will start the new work week. Guidance suggests a bit slower movement southeast of the convection overnight and the highest probability of severe weather in the I-80 corridor and possibly the western edge of the forecast area. The system will complete is passage through the region by the early afternoon hours Monday, with storm chances primarily relegated to the higher terrain southeast of Pittsburgh. Building high pressure and cold advection with a northwest wind will create dry and seasonable weather the rest of the day Monday.
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 A cold front is making inroads into our forecast area early this afternoon with dry, northwesterly flow beginning to scour out our still fairly soupy airmass. Recent mesoanalysis and area soundings suggest some degree of capping will remain in place, especially north and west of I-55, through the afternoon thanks to a layer of warmer air aloft around 700 mb which suggests the thunder threat should remain fairly low. Farther south and east, temperatures aloft are cooler, although widespread cloud cover left over from morning convection has muted diurnal reductions in MLCIN. Somewhat cooler conditions will prevail on Monday with highs generally in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Temperatures will remain cooler, even below normal for higher elevations.
1021 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Currently - A robust Atlantic ridge extends west southwestward across northern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Atlantic ridging will continue to dominate the Keys through the overnight period. This ridge is expected to lift slightly northwards into southern Georgia. Expect lows to fall in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. A ridge across northern Florida will lift north slightly overnight.
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Clouds (and a few sprinkles) have persisted across much of northern Kansas into this afternoon, resulting in temperatures 20 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Exact location of heaviest precipitation is a bit uncertain, but ensembles favor areas between I-80 and the KS/NE state line to have the highest totals. Monday has continued to trend cooler as models indicate that clouds and possibly even some rain showers may hang around into the afternoon hours.
654 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Chances for showers and storms remain this evening ahead of a cold front. Dry, cooler and less humid air overspreads the region to start the workweek, though chances of showers and thunderstorms return by midweek. Latest visible satellite imagery showing some agitation to linear cu field associated with low level convergence tied to cold front pushing east through extreme southwest Wisconsin/northeast Illinois, albeit still relatively shallow returns.
652 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Clouds (and a few sprinkles) have persisted across much of northern Kansas into this afternoon, resulting in temperatures 20 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Exact location of heaviest precipitation is a bit uncertain, but ensembles favor areas between I-80 and the KS/NE state line to have the highest totals. Monday has continued to trend cooler as models indicate that clouds and possibly even some rain showers may hang around into the afternoon hours.
628 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 The high pressure system continues to be squashed to the south with a trough from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi River Valley regions. Some scattered showers and storms have develop near a cold front stretching back to the Great Lakes.
639 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in above normal temperatures.
930 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (Issued 930 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022) The going forecast looks on track for this evening as a secondary cold front drops south across the area and continues to usher in a much more pleasant, less humid airmass. A cooler and drier airmass will dominate this period as high pressure pushes in. May see some diurnal CU pop up on Monday and then clear off again into Monday night with the high pressure ridge axis sliding off to our east.
Dry, cooler and less humid air overspreads the region to start the workweek, though chances of showers and thunderstorms return by midweek. A cold front continues to work its way east through northern Indiana at this time. Latest visible satellite imagery showing some agitation to linear cu field associated with low level convergence tied to cold front pushing east through extreme southwest Wisconsin/northeast Illinois, albeit still relatively shallow returns.
Western Washington will heat up under an upper ridge during the weak ahead.
Will keep likely PoPs late tonight into Monday morning over central and southeast Missouri when the low level jet will intersect the front ahead of a mid level vort max. Highs on Monday will be cooler with highs along I-70 only around 80 degrees because of the expected clouds and weak cold air advection.
RAIN ON THE WAY: Current surface analysis has last night's cold front stalled across northern Kansas and light showers working along that front from west to east. The clouds and showers of Monday will help keep southern Nebraska cooler than the northern portions of the CWA. PLEASANT ENOUGH FORECAST THIS WEEK: The synoptic pattern remains busy through the work week with WNW upper flow rounding the persistent Hudson low and the ridge and heat relegated to the western CONUS. Highs Tuesday will be a bit warmer (especially the south) but with an evening front forecast, the warming trend will be cut short and chance POPs will be warranted.
Expectation is to have the lower stratus linger throughout the afternoon.
245 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 A stagnant, quiescent pattern to continue today as upper level high pressure will remain overhead as robust ridging holds in place from New Mexico to southern Appalachia. Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to persist through mid-week albeit longitudinally elongated as a large, mid/upper-level cyclone over south-central Canada modulates its amplitude. The center of the ridge will continue to drift eastward, which will position the core of the monsoonal fetch to the west and northwest of the CWA.
1119 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across Pennsylvania late tonight and Monday. High pressure will build over the region Tuesday, than a warm front will lift into the region by midweek. Temps will stay up and above normal for one more night, but cooler air starts to filter into the northern third of the area overnight. Convection should ramp up along the cold front, as it pushes into southeast PA Monday afternoon, while drier/cooler air continues to take over across the northwestern counties. Although cloud cover should hold temperatures down, strong mid level flow and associated deep layer shear, combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, should support organized convection and possible isolated supercells across parts of the Lower Susq Valley.
247 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Cold front sweeps into our area through daybreak allowing most of the showers and thunderstorms to end. Cooler and drier conditions arrive behind the front later today through Tuesday. Cold front is just arriving over northwest Niagara Frontier and will continue southeast rest of the early morning hours, ending showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast. As high pressure builds toward our region we should become mostly sunny through the afternoon with comfortable levels of humidity returning as dewpoints fall into the mid to upper 50s. High pressure will continue to track toward the region through Tuesday, eventually becoming centered over western New York by Tuesday afternoon. The high along with associated dry air will provide fair weather through Tuesday night.
255 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region today through early Tuesday.
Afternoon highs are expected to be in the low to middle 90s. The ridge that has suppressed rain across the Midsouth for many recent days is weakening a bit while shifting east. As a result, we should see the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon that we have seen in quite a while. A weak cold front will stall along the Tennessee/Kentucky and Arkansas/Missouri state lines.
A broken band of thunderstorms was draped along a cold front in the OH valley west through southeast MO. Highs will once again be in the lower 90s and middle to upper 80s in the higher plateau areas.