Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another afternoon of hot temperatures is expected today across northwest California, followed by cooler conditions during the second half of the week. However, the greatest threat for thunderstorms will materialize this afternoon and evening over the interior mountains as an upper trough moves east across the region. Otherwise, warm temperatures have held steady through the night, with values ranging from the mid 50s to 60s along the coast, to 60s and 70s across the higher ridges.
521 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Current surface analysis shows weak cold front across southern SD, with high pressure centered over ND. Ridge is in place across the west coast. Relatively nice weather is expected for the next couple of days as high pressure moves south-southeast across the Plains. Warmer air will build into the area for late week as the west coast ridge slowly moves east over the Rockies and eventually weakens as it moves over the high plains.
High pressure currently over the region bringing the hottest temperatures so far this year.
With the cloud cover there is no surprise that current temperatures are still very warm across the area with mostly low 70s to even the low 80s in Bakersfield, Fresno, and Merced. Through this evening, the weak upper level low at 35N/130W will move into Northern California.
A few showers will be possible ahead of the cold front this evening in the Delta, but limited instability/ moisture will not support much in the way of thunderstorm potential.
A cold front will move across all sites too with a northerly wind behind the front. /issued 219 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ Cold front currently across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push southeastward through the morning, sweeping any lingering storms to the south along with it. Behind the front, a drier and slightly cooler airmass will produce pleasant weather through tomorrow for most of the area.
The near-term forecast is relatively quiet as will be in a cooler post-frontal airmass through the day today. Highs are also only expected to reach the low to mid 70s today. Dry conditions continue through the day on Thursday as we see rising heights aloft and the upper trough continues eastward. Rain chances return late Thursday night as the low-level jet kicks up isolated to scattered showers and storms.
1008 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure will crest over the region early today before shifting offshore. Low pressure tracks up the East Coast on Thursday spreading rain through New England.
1025 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 High pressure overhead early today will slide off the New England Coast this afternoon. Blended model guidance weighted toward the NBM yields high temps this afternoon ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the mid 70s in the Lower Susq Valley. The clouds and light to moderate southeasterly flow across much of the region (except for the southern tier counties where upper blyr winds will shift to the south then SW as a warm front moves through) will keep daytime temps rather cool across the higher terrain. Storm total rainfall amounts appear to average around one inch across the Lower Susq Valley and Western Poconos to between 0.
High pressure aloft will bring the hottest daytime temperatures so far this year through Thursday.
A Western Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain over the Straits of Florida through Thu morning, leading to light and gentle southerly breezes on all Keys waters.
With the upper ridge axis over the southern Rockies, flow from the northwest will continue through tomorrow afternoon. At 850mb, models indicate a thermal ridge will expand, from the west, across West Central Texas, tomorrow afternoon.
/TW/ A trough axis will continue to swing through the Mississippi River Valley today with a reinforcing cold front sliding into the region from the north. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s and no major changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. A few showers will be possible ahead of the cold front this evening in the Delta, but limited instability/ moisture will not support much in the way of thunderstorm potential.
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Muggy and moist conditions continue across West Central and Southwest Florida as the region remains sandwiched between a quasi- stationary frontal boundary over the panhandle and high pressure ridge axis extending westward across the southern peninsula. Southwest mid/upper flow in association with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS continues atop this surface setup favoring the continued influx of moisture into the region.
A frontal system and upper trough will move through the area tonight into Thursday.
Models showing some showers hanging around NETN and SWVA into tomorrow morning as the cold front hasn't completely exited yet. There is the potential for a storm or two up that way late morning/early afternoon before POPs drop off as the front and trough exit.
Tonight and Thursday An upper level trough was combining with a cold front to produce widespread showers across all but north central WI this afternoon. Cooler and drier air will push into the region in the wake of the front, resulting in temperatures falling into the middle to upper 30s northwest, and 40s elsewhere.
With the south winds and sunshine, expect there to be warmer temperatures for Thursday.
121 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Satellite and radar clearly show the deep troughing over the midwest with a large amplitude ridge building into the plains. If an updraft gets strong enough over central Missouri there could be isolated quarter sized hail with the freezing level around 8-9kft, so limited melting time. Once sunset occurs these storms will likely dissipate quickly leaving clear skies overnight as a cooler airmass continues to advect into our area. This cooler airmass could break some record lows tonight with the following records being close: MCI at 47 & St Joseph at 44.
Mid level trough will continue to push east across the region late this afternoon into this evening. Look for showers and thunderstorms to taper off with the loss of daytime heating and the trough pushing off to the east. High pressure then gradually builds in tonight into Thursday providing quiet weather. High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies on Thursday.
Quiet, less wind, and cooler than normal temps still expected with highs in the 60s (maybe a 70 reported here or there in eastern ND or the RRV in MN).
High resolution models suggest a brief break in precipitation around midday, with additional thunderstorm development by afternoon ahead of a cold front.
321 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 The combination of daytime heating, cool air aloft and a bit of upper level support has helped overcome high pressure to spark a few thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of central South Dakota. Otherwise, the area will stay mostly dry through Thursday night under departing high pressure.
Low temperatures will range between the upper 60s to lower 70s north of I10 and between the lower to mid 70s south of I10.
Scattered showers and storms developed around midday and have been dropping south and the backside of the upper low. Winds will also subside this evening as surface ridging approaches western Iowa.
55 A cold front will move through the state today. with a cold front dropping SE through the state.
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A deep upper low pressure system will move into the western Great Lakes tonight.
309 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A cold front is currently approaching the Big Bend. Models are persistent in keeping a short wave trough over the Four Corners area, and as such we could expect to see minor impulses coming out of said trough.
320 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A weak cold front currently situated in eastern Arkansas will move through the area later this afternoon into the evening. The aforementioned cold front should move out of the area should move out of the area by tonight into tomorrow morning. As for tomorrow, a high pressure system will move over the area and promote fantastic weather.
High pressure will keep the region mostly dry today. The upper trough will also keep temps cool with highs not reaching 70 in most areas. Upper flow will shift from one dominated by an upper trough over the eastern CONUS with a ridge to the west. Over time, the western CONUS ridge breaks down, while the upper trough to the east pinwheels in place.
257 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 The cold front that arrived this morning has pushed well south of the forecast area leaving a rather pleasant afternoon across the region. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be 8-10 degrees warmer than today as the front rapidly mixes northward through the day and the warm front may provide a focus for storm development late in the afternoon. At the same time, another speed max in the jet stream will approach the region and with slightly weaker northwest flow aloft still in place, storms could fire along the warm front in northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and drift southeast.
/issued 416 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ Models have had a tough time with sharpening the long wave trough to the west of the area. The trough is digging a bit and winds are sharpening in the base of the trough which is forcing deeper moisture northward. The closer to the coast and south of the coast, the higher the rain chances.
These instability showers/storms will be possible through the afternoon, on the back side of the upper trough.
/issued 1104 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ Water Vapor satellite indicates a midlevel short wave trough moving across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. As of 10 AM temperatures are in the lower to middle 70s at most locations.
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Satellite imagery this morning revealing large scale flow consisting of a broad upper trof covering the eastern half of the CONUS, with a well amplified ridge over the western half. Also, several vort maxes were riding down front end of upper ridge and spreading out across the Central Plains/Mid MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure was centered over northern WY.
An upper level trof will pass over Alabama tonight and push a cold front through the area. The higher (60+) surface dewpoints will get swept out of the area overnight and replaced by more comfortable readings in the 50s. The main upper level trough axis has pushed just to our east by Thursday morning, so the area will remain dry. A cooler air mass advects into the region, so expect lows Thursday night to drop into 50s for most locations.
A few storms are still expected to form over the higher terrain south of I- 70. An upper level ridge is expected to remain centered over the Utah/Colorado state line through tonight with moderate northwesterly flow aloft across northern Colorado. At the surface, an area of high pressure will be rotating over the eastern half of the state with wind gradients shifting to an easterly direction by afternoon. The easterly flow will help to keep temperatures cooler and the airmass stable through the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop are expected to dissipate as they move eastward from the foothills, and encounter the cooler, more stable air on the plains. Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal, but all in all, not too bad.
Forcing comes from the right entrance region of a jet streak at 300 mb, with weak high pressure at the surface.
High pressure in control on Thursday with conditions dry.
Surface cold front is almost into northwest Arkansas, with northwest winds already occurring at KROG/KXNA. These instability showers/storms will be possible through the afternoon, on the back side of the upper trough.
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front and associated spotty thundershowers continue to make progress through the forecast area, and should be out of the area altogether within the next hour or so. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front tonight with diminishing winds, which allows lows to drop into the mid to upper 40s. Models are consistent in showing a subtle weak trough moving out of the central Rockies Thursday night.
1120 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Current surface analysis shows weak cold front across southern SD, with high pressure centered over ND. Ridge is in place across the west coast. Relatively nice weather is expected for the next couple of days as high pressure moves south-southeast across the Plains. Warmer air will build into the area for late week as the west coast ridge slowly moves east over the Rockies and eventually weakens as it moves over the high plains.
321 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the central U. with a ridge in the western U. and a ridge off the sern U. The trough will slowly move east to the lower Great Lakes by 00z Fri.
255 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into tonight behind a cold front pushing across the PAH forecast area this afternoon and evening. A few showers may linger in our northeast counties early Thursday morning due to moisture wrapping around the low, but Thursday will generally be dry with decreasing clouds.
To our west, a well defined upper level trough on water vapor imagery continues eastward across Arkansas, which a few showers breaking out ahead of this feature across western Tennessee. As the upper level trough approaches and this moisture continues spreading northward today, models all indicate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will break out east of I-65 this afternoon.
1104 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Water Vapor satellite indicates a midlevel short wave trough moving across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. As of 10 AM temperatures are in the lower to middle 70s at most locations.
205 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A deep upper low pressure system will move into the western Great Lakes tonight.
Winds will veer out of the ENE as a cold front moves through PEQ and FST. /issued 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ An upper trough is over the central part of the country with northerly flow over the area. A cold front will push into the area today but will not have much of an impact on temperatures as highs today will be similar to yesterday.
201 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 The latest observations have the CWA in northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge over the western CONUS and upper trough over the Midwest.
/issued 304 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ Spring is not quite done yet with us but it will be trending much warmer this weekend. A cold front currently moving through the region early this morning was initiating some convection mostly across the Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. This cold front is expected to make its way through the region by daybreak or so and will advect in drier surface air. Surface ridging behind the front will essentially kill any instability leading to a poor environment for thunderstorm continuation.
248 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 An upper level trough was currently traversing the area.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed in the area as a minor perturbation shifts southward on the backside of the departing upper trough. Still believe fog potential is on the low side given the ample sunshine and winds to evaporate much of the ground moisture. Lows were adjusted slightly up to account for the high clouds in north central areas, but overall expect readings in the middle to upper 40s. As mid-level flow de-amplifies across central US, corresponding heights and temps rise, but flow backing to westerly opens the door to several weak and difficult-to-time short wave troughs.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the Mississippi River and a ridge over the Rockies. The upper ridge to our west will move into the plains during this period and flow will turn from northwesterly to westerly. The low level flow will be easterly through Thursday and turn to the southeast Thursday night.
235 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A few showers will affect far northeastern Montana this evening into tonight as a ridge continues to shift east into the area. This ridge will bring hot temperatures to the region Thursday afternoon with many locations reaching around 90 degrees.
258 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Subsidence deeper dry layer aloft in place over our CWA on back side of upper trough, with northwest flow beginning to spread into our CWA. Surface flow becomes southerly as high pressure transitions east and lee troughing develops further west, and this should allow Tds to begin to recover by Thu afternoon and instability to increase with daytime heating. Overnight/morning lows tonight and Thursday night should also trend warmer (40s tonight/50s Thursday night).
Evening surface analysis had a mostly dry cold front nearing our northwest zones that will move across our CWA tonight. By morning temperatures will be cooler than normal in the lower 60s at most sights but upper 50s may be seen at the normally cooler locations. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: A trough axis is progged to propagate through the Mississippi River Valley through tonight and into the Ohio Valley tomorrow. A reinforcing cold front is also expected to drop into the area tomorrow bringing another shot of cooler and drier air. Increased high temperatures a few degrees for tomorrow into the low to mid 80s.
Upper ridge will drift east as weak trough passes through NorCal over the next few days. This will lead to cooler, but still above normal temperatures.
A brief break is expected Thursday morning before showers and storms re-appear Thursday afternoon as a cold front crosses the region. An upper trough will advance ewd from the Plains into the Ohio Valley with strong warm, moist advection occurring ahead of the main axis. Given cool air aloft, a moist boundary layer and the advance of a cold front in association with a mid-level jet helping with the ewd movement of the primary trough, renewed convection is expected by 18Z amid a destabilizing airmass. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens. VFR conditions will continue through this evening with exiting high pressure. MVFR ceilings are expected in showers late tonight as an amplifying trough digs eastward.
Upper trof axis is digging into the mid-Mississippi Valley, with decent precip coverage from western Illinois into eastern Missouri but echoes weaken as they try to push into eastern and southern Illinois. Precip coverage and intensity will diminish quickly after sundown, even with the upper trof axis and low-level cold front passing through the region.
Scattered thunderstorms in southeast Oregon this evening, some of which are still strong, will spread into southwest Idaho overnight as an upper short wave trough moves through the area.
823 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front was roughly along a Pontiac to Taylorville line just before sunset. High pressure in control on Thursday with conditions dry.
619 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Cold front and associated spotty thundershowers continue to make progress through the forecast area, and should be out of the area altogether within the next hour or so. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front tonight with diminishing winds, which allows lows to drop into the mid to upper 40s. Models are consistent in showing a subtle weak trough moving out of the central Rockies Thursday night.
Radar shows showers and thunderstorms have begun developing as anticipated east of I-65 where a tongue of deeper moisture characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s has spread northward from Alabama. This activity will shift eastward out of the area tonight as an upper level trough swings through the Tennessee Valley, with a much drier airmass filtering into the cwa tomorrow.
High pressure will build to the northwest and push a cold front across the waters late Thursday.
An upper ridge remains over the region but the axis has now shifted east over the Great Basin. The ridge is providing well above normal temperatures and an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley. Being on the warm side of the ridge and with no cloud cover, temperatures are actually running slightly higher compared to this time yesterday. A weak upper trough over the eastern Pacific will continue to nudge the ridge farther east as it pushes over the coast Thursday.
712 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Tweaked the precipitation chances for the overnight/early Thursday morning periods with the high res models showing some elevated convection drifting into the region late tonight.
425 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 For this evening and tonight, isold tstms that might develop over the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico may try to make a run at our far nwrn zones this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into tonight behind a cold front pushing across the PAH forecast area this afternoon and evening. A few showers may linger in our northeast counties early Thursday morning due to moisture wrapping around the low, but Thursday will generally be dry with decreasing clouds.
407 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 A trough axis is progged to propagate through the Mississippi River Valley through tonight and into the Ohio Valley tomorrow. A reinforcing cold front is also expected to drop into the area tomorrow bringing another shot of cooler and drier air. Increased high temperatures a few degrees for tomorrow into the low to mid 80s.
A relatively flat ridge of high pressure was located over the desert southwest, producing weak northwest flow aloft across the state. The ridge to the west of the state will continue to weaken and flatten over the next 24 hrs, with increasing chances for precipitation and storm activity for southeast Colorado. However, it is expected to be much warmer tomorrow with highs in the 70s to near 80F for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains. Warm temps in the high country tomorrow will continue the snow melt process.
A low pressure system will be bringing some unsettled weather to the Silver State beginning with a few showers across northern Nevada tonight.
Overnight lows should drop into the upper 40s across parts of northwest AR with Thu highs mostly in the 70s except for those near the Red River and in the lower Arkansas River valley.
628 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Satellite and radar clearly show the deep troughing over the midwest with a large amplitude ridge building into the plains. If an updraft gets strong enough over central Missouri there could be isolated quarter sized hail with the freezing level around 8-9kft, so limited melting time. Once sunset occurs these storms will likely dissipate quickly leaving clear skies overnight as a cooler airmass continues to advect into our area. This cooler airmass could break some record lows tonight with the following records being close: MCI at 47 & St Joseph at 44.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 76 54 80 / 70 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 73 52 77 / 60 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 74 52 78 / 60 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 70 47 75 / 30 20 10 0.
/issued 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ A cold front is currently approaching the Big Bend. Models are persistent in keeping a short wave trough over the Four Corners area, and as such we could expect to see minor impulses coming out of said trough.
519 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019 The latest observations have the CWA in northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge over the western CONUS and upper trough over the Midwest.
Otherwise, clear skies and unseasonably cool temperatures will prevail tonight, as Canadian high pressure settles south across the region, with forecast low temperatures around 50 degrees.
Subsidence deeper dry layer aloft in place over our CWA on back side of upper trough, with northwest flow beginning to spread into our CWA. Surface flow becomes southerly as high pressure transitions east and lee troughing develops further west, and this should allow Tds to begin to recover by Thu afternoon and instability to increase with daytime heating. Overnight/morning lows tonight and Thursday night should also trend warmer (40s tonight/50s Thursday night).
/Issued 425 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/ For this evening and tonight, isold tstms that might develop over the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico may try to make a run at our far nwrn zones this evening.