Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
412 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Low pressure system over NE Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle will gradually move west along the southern U. Gulf coast throughout the remainder of the week as a strengthening high pressure over the western Atlantic builds west into Florida. As the low pressure over the NE Gulf shifts west, its effects on South Florida will lessen. SHORT-TERM (Tonight/Wednesday): this will be a transition period as the high pressure over the western Atlantic starts to builds in, with flow shifting from S/SW to SE. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Wednesday due to more early/midday sunshine, back to near normal August values.
Ample but thin cloud cover is mainly due to thin decks of high clouds forming around the southern periphery of an upper low centered over North Florida. Short Term Update - The broad ridge will remain nearby for the next several days keeping light winds ranging from southeast to south. lower and mid level ridge will remain near the island chain. As a result of the unfavorable steering flow and back ground ridging, rain chances will remain slight through mid week.
A dry, weak upper level trough prevails along the West Coast. Temperatures across the region are running around to slightly warmer than yesterday, as an upper low over the Pacific Northwest drifts eastward.
123 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Upper low across Pac NW continues to slide eastward into the nrn Rockies. Dewpoints across SCntrl SD are in the low 70s and are sliding northwestward into NW SD where dewpoints are currently in the 50s. Cooler and drier air will push into the region on the backside of the low.
Low pressure vicinity of the FL panhandle should drift slowly westward through the short term. The culprit? Broad low pressure impacting the region has slid west and settled over the southern Mississippi Valley, with abnormally moist tropical airmass situated over the southeast US.
High pressure centered off to our east, but in close enough proximity to still dominate our weather. Mainly clear skies across the state this morning, save for some high clouds topping the ridge across northern Michigan. Today: High pressure will remain in control while low level southerly flow gradually increases through the day. Tonight: Upstream cold front expected to skirt through Lake Superior and into upper Michigan while moisture/instability axis folds into upper Michigan. Have added/expanded precip chances up that way for tonight and hope we don't see some of that activity try to sneak further south of the bridge.
At this time the highest CAPE values remain across northern South Dakota where the best chance for late afternoon thunderstorms will be on Tuesday. During the day a low pressure system will set up roughly over western South Dakota with a warm front extending eastward from there into central Minnesota. A strengthening southerly low level jet will bring another chance of severe storms along and north of the warm front Wednesday afternoon and night.
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 The weather forecast across central Alabama will continued to be dominated by the affects of a broad area of low pressure along the Gulf coast. The path of the low's drift is forecast to remain largely to central Alabama's west, which would keep us on a presumablywetter sector with a deep southerly and southeasterly flow.
Similar to yesterday, surface dew points continue to linger in the lower 70s, dew point forecasts have been a struggle as guidance (traditional and meso) continue to stumble, especially with convection and the associated ingredients, thanks summer time ridging.
Partly cloudy skies throughout the morning hours have allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s already and with dew points back into the low 70s for everyone, instability values have grown quickly. The higher of those values has been over the southwest during these early afternoon hours, which is why most of the thunder we are seeing is relegated to our southwest counties.
257 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Surface cold front across southwest Ontario into northwest MN and eastern ND this afternoon will stall out and become nearly stationary across north-central MN this evening and overnight.
251 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 High pressure will move east of the region tonight.
Rodriguez 320 PM CDT An upper closed low presently across the northwest U.
Mid level heights build across the central High Plains today ahead of a strong upper level low pressure and upper trough over the western states.
545 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Surface cold front across southwest Ontario into northwest MN and eastern ND this afternoon will stall out and become nearly stationary across north-central MN this evening and overnight.
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 High pressure remains across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. This humidity and warmer temperatures for tomorrow are the main forecast drivers in the short term forecast. Main forecast question is the short term are the high temperatures and potential heat indices tomorrow across the area. Latest round of guidance has slightly lower lows tonight across the area, with the ECMWF still being the highest. Tomorrow, guidance and dewpoints are slighly lower than previously forecast as the raw American models seem to be overdoing the moisture in the low levels. If the dewpoints are on trend to be warmer tomorrow, a heat advisory may be needed.
323 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Line of scattered storms continues to develop in the southwest flow over the higher terrain. so suspect storms may transition to the plains over the cheyenne ridge or northern colorado.
A broad area of low pressure in eastern Washington continues to usher in moisture and instability into the northern Rockies this afternoon. The upper low will move over northwest Montana tonight. The upper low will progress northeast into southern Alberta early Wednesday. Wrap around moisture will occur behind this low. Expect steady rain and cooler temperatures across the Canadian border, especially over Glacier NP.
Convective elements from the overnight MCS have all but dissipated, however several CAM solutions continue to indicate isolated weak elevated convection could still form along the ND/SD state line associated with the tail end of a 500mb trof this morning.
A narrow strip of mid and high level cloud cover from Mena to Texarkana to Shreveport and the lower Toledo Bend Reservoir keeping temperatures in check slightly but elsewhere.
High pressure builds in over northern and central Nevada later this week resulting in warm and dry conditions though the weekend.
The upper level low is centered over the forecast area this morning producing some showers mainly over the eastern portion of the forecast area. The low will slowly move to the east and be over the Idaho panhandle by this afternoon. The low will then move off into western Montana overnight bring the shower to an end for the forecast area.
Upper ridge/high will remain off the Atlantic coast, with weak flow on the west periphery and across our area.
As warm rain processes will dominate due to a lack of deep instability and high freezing level, heavy rainfall was included with the thunderstorm wording in the area of best moisture advection overnight. The Southern CONUS upper high is progged to be shunted east by the weekend as an upper trough advances out of the West.
High temperatures are warmest in the northern and central valley with readings in the lower 90s. The upper level pattern will feature a ridge along the Eastern Seaboard with a westerly trough along the Gulf Coast. Southerly to southwesterly flow in the mid and lower levels around the ridge will keep PW values up into the 1. Over the weekend, the upper level ridge shifts towards the east as the Gulf low moves northwards across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 91 75 90 / 20 50 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 90 72 88 / 20 40 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 73 90 72 88 / 20 30 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 88 70 86 / 20 30 30 50.
Temps are ranging from the lower to upper 80s, higher in areas that received more sun. At the surface, the well advertised low pressure area that has been impacting the Florida Gulf coast has moved west and is centered near Mobile Bay. As well, there is an inverted trough/convergence boundary stretching NE to SW across the CWA. Synoptically speaking, the local area is still between a ridge pushing westward from the Atlantic and weak ridging to the west as an upper low digs into the northwestern states. The low pressure area in the Gulf has continued to feed moisture and weak vort maxes from the southeast today.
As noted via previous forecasts, the main culprit for the higher heat indicies/increased rain coverage appears to be the shifting of the upper low from the NE Gulf coast westward to the NCentral Gulf coast the last day or so. And so the combination of this feature with the upper low over situated over LA (and the proximity of the very high PWs) will likely sup- port at least chance POPS in the grids Sat/Sun.
Rainfall gauge networks across the lower elevations are reporting amounts roughly ranging from 0.
619 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. A weak warm front will help support areas of cloudiness early this morning. The temperature guidance was consistent with highs mainly in the lower 80s and just below records for the date. The main issues Wednesday will be windy conditions ahead of a cold front and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots.
The cold front is currently along the I-70 corridor and is the focus for some heavier snowfall and will need to be watched as some snow is accumulating on I-70 near Loma and Mack and also Debeque and areas east. Thickness values indicate the cold front will have moved through just about our entire CWA by noon with the upper level trough moving through a few hours later.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a broad upper-level trough in the western US, with west-southwesterly flow across the central US. Temperatures likely will reach morning (northwest) to midday (central) to early afternoon (southeast) highs before falling behind the cold front/inverted trough. In wake of the cold front and as the upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes, temperatures will temper down toward normal for Wednesday.
333 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will start to build in today.
Main concern for snowfall today will be associated with this band as the main trough axis moves across the state. The bands are progged to translate eastward into the cwa ahead of the main trough axis later this morning and afternoon. Snow will decrease but could still get 1-3 inches along the higher north and west facing slopes with areas of blowing snow along and east of the Continental Divide.
525 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through tonight before a strong cold front results in gusty showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Speed and directional shear are progged to continue to increase as the low's associated cold front approaches.
The threat will continue into the overnight hours as the cold front begins to move through the region. Cold front will be clearing areas south of I-70 early Wednesday morning, with much of the precipitation pulling out of the area by midday. Longwave upper trough to cross the Midwest through Wednesday night, as pattern shifts toward a series of fast moving waves dropping down from the northwest.
This will help produce more showers and thunderstorms ahead of the warm front mainly during the morning hours. Behind the warm front, temperatures will be warm this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s. By tonight, a cold front will sweep through the southern plains and move through Arkansas during the overnight hours. Otherwise, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front and move across the region starting later tonight and continuing through the overnight hours. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the cold front could also become severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threat. Temperatures will be quite mild tonight with lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 60s. On Wednesday, the cold front will move quickly through the forecast area. High pressure will start to build into the area Wednesday night.
830 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 Upper level trof to move across Colorado this afternoon and early evening. Duration only a few hours with quick moving trof. Main concern for snowfall today will be associated with this band as the main trough axis moves across the state. The bands are progged to translate eastward into the cwa ahead of the main trough axis later this morning and afternoon. Snow will decrease but could still get 1-3 inches along the higher north and west facing slopes with areas of blowing snow along and east of the Continental Divide.
756 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through tonight before a strong cold front results in gusty showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Speed and directional shear are progged to continue to increase as the low's associated cold front approaches.
Forecast remains on track for clearing skies and a warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s almost everywhere except for the immediate coastline, where temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 70s. In the upper levels slight ridging will be over the Southeast today. At the surface a low will be centered over Iowa and high pressure will be over Eastern CONUS. Cloud cover will thin out by afternoon and highs will be in the lower 80s.
Temperatures were a little warmer across Yellowstone Valley but with the region warming up quickly today and low stratus in place these temperature differences shouldn't impact the highs by much at all.
259 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will start to build in today.
700 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 IFR/LIFR low stratus and fog will continue at KCHA this morning as -RA eventually moves into the region from the SW along/ahead of a warm front.
Short wave trough over the Desert Southwest early this morning will move quickly east-northeast into the southern and central plains this evening and through the Mississippi River valley Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low level flow of 35-40 knots early this morning will move to the east today with the trough/dryline moving into southwest Texas late this afternoon. Will lean toward the higher MAV guidance for highs today with readings 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Cold front will be moving into region around 12Z Wednesday. Very limited moisture in advance of the cold front will keep rain chances low with the best chance being over the Gulf waters on Wednesday.
726 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 The 12z sounding has more low level stability than the sounding at 00z as indicated by a high level of free convection at around 750mb and a weak lapse rate in the lowest 3km of only 5.
TSRA with some possible severe storms will approach from the west toward the end of the period, ahead of a cold front.
An increasingly dry and warmer westerly flow aloft will set up for the latter half of the week.
Cold front at 3 am was located along the US50 corridor and then extended northward towards COS. Cold front will continue to move south but is expected to stall from roughly Springfield to Walsenburg later today. As for precip, heaviest precip will occur this morning over the higher terrain, with precip gradually decreasing this afternoon. By later this morning into the afternoon, as cooler moister air advects onto the plains, the chance of showers will increase, especially across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Mid lvl trough axis will be along the I-25 corridor.
Temperatures are below normal, but will trend warmer into Wednesday.
Northwest flow and subsidence behind yesterday's trough has resulted in clearing skies across much of the region, and showers over northwest California have been dissipating as them move inland. High pressure will build across the region into mid-week with dry weather.
606 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area today, leading to near record high temperatures by Wednesday.
Gusts to return after 01/06Z with VCTS conditions possible across TYR/TXK/ELD ahead of an approaching cold front. They believe isolated super cells may develop out well ahead of the cold front this afternoon so we will watch for that possibility. the cold front is due to arrive and shift the winds by this time tomorrow.
A line of strong, possibly severe, storms associated with an approaching cold front and upper trough crossing the Plains should begin to approach the ArkLaMiss Tuesday night from the west.
With the moisture and warmer temperatures, visibility values are beginning to drop into the 1-3 mile range across some locations. The strength of the CAP is being aided by strong southwesterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Highs today will return into the 80s across much of the area and will actually be a bit warmer than yesterday. A mid-level trough axis currently located across the western CONUS will move east today/tonight before moving through the Central Plains by tomorrow morning. This will send a cold front south into the CWA after midnight tonight, with the front exiting the area shortly after sunrise.
Weak low pressure near the Sierra Madre this afternoon will keep winds fairly light across the far west with gusty winds near the coast today. Mostly cloudy skies return tonight with low temperatures falling into the lower 70s across much of the area. A cold front will approach and move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday before the cooler air arrives.
A trough of low pressure will continue to slowly move out of the Great Basin today, taking the chance for showers along with it.
Snow is coming down at a pretty good clip as the flow is forced over the mountains, especially along the Cascade Crest where the low level flow is most orthogonal to the terrain. As a general rule, we'll probably see less shower activity today compared to yesterday as upper ridging starts to develop off shore and heights over us rise.
Winds should decouple after sunset, and begin veering thru the end of the forecast period as a cold front approaches. 85h temps and downslope wind mostly supports the high temp forecast of M70-U70s SE NM to mostly 75-85 remainder of the area. Noticeably warmer Sat, especially across the w, and expanding east Sun/Mon. Said strong mid level winds will intersect the fire effective low level thermal ridge just off the Caprock at the surface and on the high plains at 85h. Meanwhile the lowest surface dewpoints will push hard into the windward side of the 85h thermal ridge around 21Z today. Also the fire weather as indicated the RFTI will fall into the high end critical (6-7)to extreme(8) range.
957 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will build across the region today. A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday.
758 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will build across the region today. A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday.
902 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will build across the region today. A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday.
511 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 Snow has pretty much ended across the CWA early this morning and only some snow showers are now expected over the higher mtns mainly tonight through Wednesday night in a favorably moist northwesterly upper flow.
Temperatures are already in the upper 70s and low 80s across the island chain, and dew points indicate a humid airmass upon us, with readings in the low 70s. The buoy at Pulley Ridge reports 3 ft seas.
645 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. A weak warm front will bring low clouds and areas of fog early this morning. The temperature guidance was consistent with highs mainly in the lower 80s and just below records for the date. The main issues Wednesday will be windy conditions ahead of a cold front and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots.
we'll have subsidence with ridging over the area this afternoon. With strong warm advection occuring over the cooler waters today, sea fog will be possible, especially over SE GA waters. High pressure will be East of area waters through Wednesday.
A strong upper level trough that extends from the Pacific Northwest south into southern CA will move toward the area today. Ahead of this trough increasing flow aloft will move in over west Texas. Overnight, a cold front will move through, likely reaching the I-10 corridor by around sunrise or shortly after, turning winds to the north at 15 to 20 mph. Lows will be in the low 40s north to near 50 south.
Short term high res models show light amounts of spurious precip, so have left chance pops along the highway 14 corridor. Upper level trough moves through the region tonight with isentropic lift developing on the 290K surface across the eastern half of the forecast area. Have raised pops into the low likelies in southwest Minnesota, with high chance pops extending down into northwest Iowa.
Went ahead and upgraded the high wind watches to warnings. Snow has pretty much ended across the CWA early this morning and only some snow showers are now expected over the higher mtns mainly tonight through Wednesday night in a favorably moist northwesterly upper flow.
Both the high resolution CAM (Convection Allowing Models) and the larger grid spaced model guidance (12km NAM-WRF, 20km GFS, as well as the ECMWF and CMCnh) are initializing the convection 40-80 nm too far to the west-southwest.
In the upper levels slight ridging will be over the Southeast today. At the surface a low will be centered over Iowa and high pressure will be over Eastern CONUS. Cloud cover will thin out by afternoon and highs will be in the lower 80s.
422 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 Upper level analysis has trof crossing the Northern Rockies with unsettled southwest flow across the Northern Plains. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today, mainly in the 30s for highs and teens to lower 20s for lows. Upper trof finally shifts east of the area with northwest flow taking over.
Northern terminals will remain in the IFR or low-end MVFR categories until the cold front sweeps through late tonight.
They believe isolated super cells may develop out well ahead of the cold front this afternoon so we will watch for that possibility. the cold front is due to arrive and shift the winds by this time tomorrow.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight as a strong cold front approaches. Highs will reach into the lower to middle 60s this afternoon.
247 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2017 A few snow showers may linger near the Oregon border today, otherwise high pressure will bring dry conditions with light winds this week.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic will extend across north central Florida today, with low level winds out of the southeast. Aloft, flow will generally be zonal with ridge centered south of Florida, keeping warm and stable conditions in place. Partly sunny skies expected today, with highs in the low 80s along the coast to mid to upper 80s over the interior. High pressure ridging across north central Florida into the gulf will provide southeast winds across the waters this morning.