Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong high pressure continues to build along the west coast this morning.
145 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 The afternoon water vapor loop revealed a high amplitude upper ridge from CA into western Canada.
An upper trough over the eastern U. Temperatures should be fairly similar to yesterday with expected cloud cover and used a bias corrected average in the low 30s north to mid 30s south for this reason. The wave moves off to the east Sunday night, with just small chances for snow in the east for the first few hours before the whole area should be dry as upper ridging starts to build.
Cloudy skies with temperatures generally in the low to mid 50s prevail across the area this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low 70s on Sunday.
As main upper level trough pulls out of the Great Lakes region, a series of vort maxes will continue to drop through the flow through the Dakotas and Minnesota and on through Iowa.
Winds will once again be fairly brisk out of the northwest with high temperatures a bit cooler than what we saw today. Temperatures will respond nicely with highs warming into the lower to middle 50s.
Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the lowest readings in low lying areas and river valleys. High temperatures on Sunday will warm up to slightly above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail across the area through mid week as an upper level ridge remains over the western CONUS. The ridge will weaken by late week, with flow aloft becoming more zonal.
By midnight precipitation in the form of snow showers will begin to move into the far northwestern sections of our CWA as the first of a series of short waves rotating around the back side of an upper low over southeast Canada taps into deeper moisture.
Otherwise, mainly dry weather can be expected through the weekend with heights building aloft as ridging intensifies across the West.
Upper jet moving S along the eastern side of the upper ridge was over the Dakotas this afternoon per water vapor imagery. The airmass will dry out overnight and upper ridging on Sunday will become a flatter NW flow over the area Sunday night.
The Interior Northwest will remain under an upper level ridge through tonight. Thus will continue to see low clouds and varying amounts of fog or freezing fog below the base of the inversions through tonight. Overall, fog/freezing fog is patchy this morning, though areas of fog/freezing fog are occurring roughly between elevations of 2000 and 2800 ft MSL. Updates this morning reduced the areal coverage with areas of fog/freezing fog wording, while adjusting overall low cloud and fog locations in terms of information from visible satellite, web cameras and observations.
At the surface, a trough/cold front will move through the region later this morning. PoPs are still mainly in the 15-30% range with the highest values in the far east.
As is usually the case, the more efficient snow will be along the higher terrain and north of I-80 with enhancement from upslope/lake moisture.
Will see decreasing cloudiness as the day progresses as southern trof advances south and southeast over the region and drier air settles in for today and much of the upcoming forecast.
Western CONUS ridge will slowly push east in the period, with perturbed flow remaining on the western periphery of the Great Lakes trough. Western conus ridge will continue to shift east Sunday, with warmer wx expected all places.
1226 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 The region will be in between low pressure over southeastern Canada and high pressure over the Rockies this weekend with a couple of weak troughs or cold fronts moving through.
321 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Low pressure over Labrador will slowly lift north through Sunday. A weak cold front will move into western Maine Sunday morning, and will move off the Downeast coast Sunday night.
Highs today will be pleasant considering late January with afternoon readings in the upper 20s north to the lower to mid 30s in the far south.
1007 AM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 Western CONUS ridge will slowly push east in the period, with perturbed flow remaining on the western periphery of the Great Lakes trough. Western conus ridge will continue to shift east Sunday, with warmer wx expected all places.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large trough over the Hudson Bay, Ontario, and Great Lakes while a large ridge runs from California, the Intermountain West, and crests over the front range of Alberta and Montana in a weak chinook. Farther West, a cool pacific trough sets over the Gulf of Mexico. Today through Sunday: The crest of the ridge will move down the front range and be directly over northeast Montana by the mid Morning. This will lend to warmer conditions and strong downsloping. However, prior to that a weak disturbance will make its way south through the flow on the edge of the ridge this evening and could cause isolated showers across the far east near the ND/MT border before the dry air arrives in full force.
Much of the same cloudy conditions with scattered snow showers and flurries is expected on Sunday until another in the series of trofs passes early Sunday evening.
Surface to 850 MB ridging also looks to have a hand in dissipating much activity as the afternoon wears on into the evening.
Current temps are into the lower 50s for many portions of the area. A deepening trough over the U. I will be undercutting the numerical guidance as the snow/rain will pair with the lower wet bulb temps to keep us on the colder side.
With high pressure wedged into the CWA from the west, a disturbance embedded in northwest flow aloft will swing through the forecast area overnight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, look for another seasonable night across the CWA as lows fall into the low and middle 30s. Quiet weather will prevail early in the period as the region will transition to being on the west side of a digging trough on Sunday to more zonal flow through much of the week. By Sunday night, a large digging upper trough encompassing much of the eastern third of the CONUS will continue to push east. This should leave conditions on the cooler side in the northern part of the ArkLaMiss.
Expecting readings to top out in the 40s across the I-25 corridor and plains, teens and 20s across most of the high valleys and mountains with the exception of the Chaffee County lower elevations, which will probably see some above freezing temperatures.
A weak cold front and associated CAA was causing low stratus to push southward across the region this morning.
a weak trough was moving southeast through southern Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. For late tonight into Sunday morning, another short wave trough, currently located near the International border, will move southeast through the region.
316 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Sharp ridge over the western CONUS and deep trough over the eastern CONUS with northern and central plains in north northwesterly flow. As for high temperatures on Sunday, have raised them once again warmer than models are forecasting. Have bumped temperatures into the 50s across our southwest and across north central Nebraska where there is still an abundant snow cover have only bumped temperatures a few degrees to push them in to the low to mid 40s. Through the first part of the week ridge to the west flattens out with upper pattern through the northern plains becoming more fast northwesterly.
Overnight temps will be a bit warmer than last night as winds will have more of a downsloping component. Tomorrow will be quiet as a ridge builds over the west coast keeping us in northwesterly flow aloft.
Lapse rates will be steep in the lower atmosphere owing to some very small positive area (CAPE) on forecast soundings by late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Mixing should enable gusts over 20 mph once again, especially on the higher elevations. This may produce flurries more than anything else due to the low amount of moisture available.
Mid to high level clouds will continue to stream through the high pressure that has built over the Northern Rockies today. Patchy freezing fog will also be possible for the valleys of western Montana and north- central Idaho in the morning.
Clouds will decrease from west to east tonight as an upper level ridge of high pressure moves onto the California coast. 850mb temperatures warm another 8F to 10F across the area supporting highs in the low to mid 50s.
Mid/Upper pattern is characterized by longwave ridging across the PAC NW and longwave troughing across the eastern half of the CONUS. The upper trough will keep digging which will 'squash' the rain further south and east as the night wares on.
237 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Tonight a cold front will usher in a re-enforcing shot of cooler air, but no precipitation with this front. Overnight low temperatures will fall to the low 30s to upper 20s, but temperatures will rebound on Sunday. Once again the wind will make it feel cooler than what it actually is outside so a jacket will be needed for most of the day.
1153 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Strong ridging has built into the western half of the country setting up a predominately NW flow at all levels over the midwest and central plains. Multiple weak short waves will advect down the back side of the ridge Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning helping to create the potential for increased lift, cloud coverage, and possible flurries to light snow showers mixing into rain and snow in the afternoons. Little to no accumulations are expected over the area except for isolated areas in the NE portion of the CWA that may see a dusting Sunday morning before it warms above freezing.
Temperatures will remain mild with afternoon highs in the upper 20s and lows in the lower 20s. Early morning water vapor imagery with GFS 500mb heights and winds showed northwest flow across the region with a ridge axis over the Canadian Rockies.
250 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 South to southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring warmer and drier air to the region. Tomorrow will be dry with partly cloudy skies as a weak cold front will move into the northern rockies. This push will bring a slight chance of storms to the higher terrain and northeast plains. Due to the surface cold front moving into the foothills from the ENE high temperatures tomorrow will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s further east.
Over on the the west coast of the CONUS, a deepening trough will be the focus of this afternoon's showers and thunderstorms over parts of western and central North Dakota. This cap should remain strong through the afternoon until a cold front approaches with a push of mid level western air that will aid in cooling the mid-level temperatures slightly. If storms can realize the impressive environment without suffering from the cap suppression, storms will have the potential to produce some large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a condition threat of a brief tornado given some elevated low level shear eventually as the low level jet kicks in around sunset.
High High pressure will build in tonight and be overhead on Friday.
405 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley Region today. Available instability will remain sufficient, and given mesoanalysis trends suggesting the instability ridge is expanding into western Pennsylvania concurrent to model shear profiles weakening drastically as the upper low transitions southeastward, it would seem the movement of additional storm cells will become progressively slower through the evening. Fries Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
Will end the chc of pcpn by Friday evening as the cdfnt will be south of the cwa and a little cooler/less humid airmass moves across the Tn Valley.
636 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley Region today. Also, given mesoanalysis trends suggesting the instability ridge continues to ride into western Pennsylvania while model shear profiles weaken drastically as the upper low transitions southeastward, it would seem the movement of additional storm cells will become progressively slower through the evening. Fries Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The next 36 hours remains persistent with recent trends as H5 ridge slowly begins to shift westward toward the Four Corners region. Tomorrow will see another hot and humid day, though one or two ticks lower than today as the center of the ridge will be moving away from the valley.
Southeast winds will continue today, running about 15kts sustained with gusts into the lower 20s. /issued 448 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Water vapor imagery this morning shows the center of mid-level ridging nearly overhead. The 500mb ridge over Texas will slowly retrograde towards the north central Mexico and the Texas Big Bend Region through the forecast period. High temperatures today and Friday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West. The main forecast issue through the short term will be the high heat indices. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support moderate south-southeast winds today and Friday.
Another hot and humid afternoon is on tap as the summertime ridge continues to expand just to our west. We will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge and therefore have the potential for a few scattered storms this afternoon and evening primarily east of US Highway 65.
148 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley Region today. Still expect some recovery in the airmass sufficient to support another round of storms after 19Z or so ahead of approaching low pressure, with the full spectrum of threats still possible. Activity will begin to die down after 06Z or so with loss of instability and the passage of the low. Building high pressure will improve conditions rapidly behind the exiting low.
The highest chances will be in western OK but chances too low for mention in any TAFs.
night, as it turns more WSW with time ahead of a pacific trough. A cold front will cross the region Sat.
Given the lower probability of this occurring, only have 1 to 3 mile visibilities and lower ceilings in a tempo group for now around daybreak.
Lead 500 mb s/w trough is forecast to move across nrn portions of east Central Florida this evening with a reinforcing mid level trough axis dropping in across northeast Gulf overnight. 500 mb trough axis will push twd Central areas by mid to late afternoon shunting somewhat deeper moisture across srn portions of the forecast area with mid level drying forecast from the GFS/NAM across the nrn areas by late afternoon. Westerly low level flow in the h9-h8 layer is fcst around 20 knots which will keep High temps warm again in the lower to mid 90s.
A high pressure ridge will usher fair weather and warm temperatures into NY and PA this weekend. The current lightning map shows thunderstorms over western/central PA are flowing through the higher ml-cape environment extending along the PA/OH border. With little reason to believe the higher ml-cape values will move into our FA, we trended below guidance for thunder probability. An upper atmospheric ridge will extend through the Ohio Valley into NY/PA by late Friday, pushing warmer temperatures and fair weather into our region.
311 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure will build east through the upcoming weekend with dry and increasingly warmer weather expected. The upper level low that has plagued the region for the past several days will continue to move east of Newfoundland tonight and Friday. Friday will feature plenty of sunshine along with even warmer afternoon temperatures. Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 70s across much of the region. Relatively quiet weather expected through the weekend with a nose of the massive 500mb ridge dominating the country nosing into New England.
347 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 The main story today was the heat and the high heat indices.
252 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 With the cold front moving through the region and the upper low slowly moving out of the Great Lakes to the northeast. High pressure at the surface and aloft over much of the Midwest will keep fair weather across central IL for the next several days. As the ridge aloft amplifies and extends from the southwestern U.
Decided to add a Heat Advisory for the northwest portion of the area as the higher dewpoints and temperatures have contributed to heat index values above 105 degrees. The high so far today is 97 degrees at the Nashville Airport, and most guidance shows 98 or 99 degrees as the high. As the upper trough currently over the Great Lakes region dives southward, a lobe of PVA aloft and a cold front looks to cross the OH River Valley and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lingering chances may hang around in the southwest zones Friday morning and early afternoon, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail through the weekend as upper level ridging sets in.
144 PM MST THU JUN 16 2016 The large Pacific low pressure system along the west coast that had kept afternoon temperatures below normal for the past six days will weaken today.
612 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure will build east through the upcoming weekend with dry and increasingly warmer weather expected. Update 615 pm - North winds continue to blow this evening as a very pesky upper low slowly retreats into the open Atlantic Ocean. The upper level low that has plagued the region for the past several days will continue to move east of Newfoundland tonight and Friday. Friday will feature plenty of sunshine along with even warmer afternoon temperatures. Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 70s across much of the region. Relatively quiet weather expected through the weekend with a nose of the massive 500mb ridge dominating the country nosing into New England.
we may see our first 100-degree day this year at DFW as the upper ridge continues to strengthen.
High pressure will dominate throughout with temperatures reaching levels not seen for at least 20 years.
307 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will amplify just west of the region through the weekend and result in a continuation of the early season heat wave.
546 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure will build over the area tonight. The high remains thru the weekend. then gives way to a cold front early to mid week. Ely flow will keep the Twin Forks and immediate CT coast in the lower 70s. Upper level ridge builds in as trough gets pushed south off the southeast coast.
331 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 A very warm and generally dry period of weather can be expected over the next several days with upper-level ridging in place.
Upper level ridging will continue to build over Arkansas today. Expect to see afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
A cold front will move south through the area tonight as an upper trough drops southeast from the southern Great Lakes region. Moisture is expected to linger especially north tomorrow as the upper trough will be slow to depart.
109 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016 A strengthening area of high pressure should lead to an extended stretch of warm temperatures, comfortable humidity levels and dry conditions today through the weekend.
Everything else is as forecast with temperatures gradually warming as the high pressure center shifts northward. The area of low pressure centered just off the Oregon coast will slowly drop south today while the high pressure remains to our south.
Mid-afternoon readings were in the low/mid 90s, and will likely top out in the mid 90s in some spots, making for one of the hottest days so far this year and in this recent hot stretch. For tonight into Friday night, high pressure builds into the region from the lower Great Lakes.
Light showers continue, as do strong winds on the north side of the low where dissipating/evaporating showers are likely contributing to the broad area of 30-45mph wind gusts on the north side of the low. Will leave some morning cloud cover and likely some residual surface boundaries over the area, but with lack of a lifting mechanism to break the cap, and an upper ridge moving overhead by mid afternoon, will keep forecast dry at this time.
High valleys may cool to frost or freezing, while lower valleys will remain mid 30s or warmer.
544 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 A weak cold front will push south of the region this evening. High pressure will build in from the northwest overnight and Friday and will gradually settle south of New England over the weekend.
/issued 330 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level high, centered over northern Mexico, will remain in place today and tonight while a ridge builds north across the eastern Plains and western portions of the Midwest. Surface dewpoints are expected to drop into the lower 60s this afternoon across the western parts of our area, and into the mid to upper 60s across our eastern counties. With south winds, temperatures will be warm again tonight, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Otherwise, skies to remain mostly clear today with southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph as surface and upper-level high pressure prevail across the region.
348 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure from the Florida Straits to northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoint readings were generally in the low to mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Georgia to northeast Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to Minnesota. 18 With the upper level ridge axis expanding west and short wave well east of the forecast area, surface temperatures rise unabated by any significant coverage of rain and significant cloud cover tomorrow.
203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into Friday.
With more sunshine, our northern zones will see the warmest readings this afternoon (lower 80s), with highs in the low-mid 70s down over portions of northeast PA.
315 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure centered near Cleveland will move southeast off the Carolina coast by morning. This will allow high pressure to build over the region for the weekend. There will be a period of cloudiness in the cold air advection behind the low but drier air should begin to win out toward daybreak. Not much to write about in the short term as high pressure will dominate Friday through the weekend.
309 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure aloft will strengthen and bring several days of temperatures well above normal to the Borderland.
Satellite shows considerable low clouds from Minnesota through Wisconsin in the wrap-around along a lingering trough axis. Regional radars show a cluster of storms propagating from eastern Kansas into western Missouri attendant to weak impulse cresting upper ridge. Our area will remain anchored on the front flank of an amplifying upper level ridge over the next 24 hours.
The upper ridge will continue to strengthen across the area through the end of the week.
346 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 The center of our upper level low has already reached Western Lake Erie and will continue to exit southeast late this afternoon, allowing for rush of drier air to come in from the northeast from eastern Canada, allowing skies to clear out tonight.
Quiet weather is expected through the short term as South Texas remains under an upper ridge. Low level moisture trapped under that ridge will produce early morning low clouds and patchy fog.
302 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 Upper ridge axis is now across the upper midwest south deep southwesterly flow over the wrn CONUS. Surface analysis shows low pressure across the the northern plains. mainly depending on how much the low level cap weakens. Frontal boundary will stall across central SD Friday morning as small scale high pressure crosses eastern MT into western ND. Return flow will set up bringing warmer air back into the CWA through Fri afternoon.