Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Deep layer southeasterly flow will prevail as south Florida is sandwiched between mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic and and low pressure over the southern Mississippi valley. At the surface, a low pressure trough now located over the Bahamas will slowly progress through our area, bringing an increase in deep layer moisture along with it. Forecast precipitable water values during this time remain on the high side, at around 20 to 30 percent above average as previously mentioned. The highest totals are expected towards the interior and Gulf coast, although localized heavier amounts are always possible in heavier showers or storms regardless of location. Mid to upper ridging will become increasingly prominent from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast CONUS. However expect less widespread storm coverage and warming temperatures given the ridging in place.
Summer time high pressure over the southeastern States will remain across Indiana and the Ohio Valley this weekend.
1158 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 An upper level ridge will build across the central plains leading to continued hot and dry conditions. The upper level ridge will dominate our weather pattern, which will likely keep most if not all of our area dry through the weekend. The main concern will be the high heat index values of 100-105, and the possibility that we may need to issue a heat advisory if these expected heat index values get any higher. The highest heat index values will likely be across our eastern zones where dewpoints will be the highest.
Although greatest chances this afternoon will lie across the higher terrain due to differential heating, with the warm, humid, unstable atmosphere in place, feel that it can't be completely ruled out elsewhere. Another cold front pushes through Saturday night, showers and storms possible, likely waning with time through the overnight.
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 High pressure over the mid Atlantic States will move southeast overnight as a weak cold front slowly sags south across the area Saturday afternoon. A secondary trough will drop south across Lake Erie and the east portion of the region Saturday night.
234 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 RAP IR satellite analysis shows high pressure is firmly in place over the Lone Star. Sounding profiles signal deep mixing tomorrow, so temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.
908 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019 A low pressure system stalled along Pacific Northwest coast will maintain dry, breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area into the upcoming weekend. Anonymously deep closed low over the Pacific Northwest will maintain hot, dry and breezy conditions across the region today.
326 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Typical summertime upper level ridging has become established across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the desert southwest. The exception is across the Northern Plains on the norther periphery of the ridging, where several thunderstorm complexes have dove southeast through the Mississippi Valley the last couple of days. In fact the ridge reaches it's peak Saturday, with highs approaching 100F for most areas. A cold front will slowly sag into northwest Nebraska Saturday night as the ridge weakens and begins to flatten slightly.
A dry cold front with its associated band of mid and high-level clouds will continue over portions of Central CA per latest satellite images.
Expect drier and warmer conditions to move into the region over the weekend.
/28/ Showers and storms continue to slide down through the western half of the forecast area as an upper low pressure system meanders across the northern part of the area. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: The convective scenario for today could end up being similar to yesterday as we watch a meandering upper level low continue to dig southward around the eastern periphery of an expanding subtropical high over the central CONUS. Colder air aloft (H500 T ~ -10 deg C) and lift associated with the low will continue to interact with a very moist airmass to bring another round of potentially organized storms today per latest CAM guidance.
A deep upper trough was still positioned over the Pacific northwest. An outflow boundary and/or cold front, will push through by late evening and shut down the convection. The cold front will serve as a provider of more stable air on Saturday. Latest MAV guidance keeps temperatures in the 70s on Saturday, but ensembles still have highs touching the lower 80s.
Better rain chances are expected Saturday with a crossing cold front. Given slightly cooler than forecast sfc temperatures combined with warmer air aloft, expect that convection this afternoon will be more limited in coverage and severity than yesterday.
Current temperature guidance is near or slightly warmer than the previous run. Going by model bias, consensus, and performance, I went a little warmer for tomorrow than today. At the start of the period, upper ridging stretches across the country.
Cool temperatures today with abundant high cloud cover will give way to fewer cloud and warmer temps for the weekend.
335 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Despite generalized upper level ridging over the Tennessee Valley, sufficient moisture along with strong early summer daytime heating and resultant instability have resulted in the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley. Before convection initiated an hour or two ago, high temperatures across the region have soared into the lower 90s, with heat indices into mid 90s. Highs temperature both Sat/Sun should warm into the lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid/upper 90s.
Gusty northwest wind, cooler temperatures, and a lower cloud deck will accompany this frontal surge. Temperatures will remain above normal across the central and southwest, although a few degrees cooler than Friday. Saturday night through Friday Mostly dry on Saturday night as the ridge continues to dominate.
The upper-level ridge will build over the area through the weekend, and eventually cap off all diurnally-forced convection. However, the warmer mid-level temperatures may not make it over the eastern half of the area in time to prevent a few isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
This has kept temperatures a couple degrees cooler than their potential thus far but with dewpoint values in the 70s, heat indices remain quite uncomfortable. Temperatures tonight remain mild, generally only falling into the lower 70s.
High temperatures will be into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s.
224 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 (Tonight through Saturday) This afternoon, an upper-level ridge was located over the Desert Southwest/far west Texas. This ridge was slowly creeping into the central Plains, while an inverted trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley was gradually retrograding westward. One exception to this is that the aforementioned inverted trough will reach east Texas by tomorrow afternoon.
Moisture is on the rise and is producing a little higher coverage of rain today than previous days as inverted trough pushes west across south Fl. Showers and storms expected to be likely on Saturday as models show a weak mid level trough lifting north into central Fl.
Cloud cover today could keep parts of the western area of the region a touch cooler than currently forecast, but it shouldn't be a significant impact. /ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019/ Today: A large-scale closed upper level low is now positioned over western Washington. Still, isolated showers or afternoon thunderstorms remain possible, particularly over the higher elevations.
Cloud cover today could keep parts of the western area of the region a touch cooler than currently forecast, but it shouldn't be a significant impact. Brusda /ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019/ Today: A large-scale closed upper level low is now positioned over western Washington. Still, isolated showers or afternoon thunderstorms remain possible, particularly over the higher elevations.
Low rain chances begin Saturday night as the upper low currently over MS drops southwest toward the area.
235 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Upper ridging is in place over the region with an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. An isolated storm or two is possible south and west of the Pecos River in and around the higher terrain this afternoon.
For Saturday, a weak mid-level low and inverted trough will approach the region from the northeast. Much will depend on the timing of these storms and for now we will keep the higher rain chances confined to the evening hours.
148 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 High pressure will bring increasing warmth and humidity to the region through tonight. A cold front will settle south through the forecast area Saturday.
1126 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Large upper low is sitting along the Pac NW coast, with upper ridging sitting across northern Great Plains. At the surface, low pressure is persistent across Wyoming. Thermal ridge across the CWA today will result in hot conditions. Weather will remain dry today and again Saturday, which will end up being the warmer of the two days.
A mid/upper ridge across the southern Rockies is progged to build north and east across the region through the weekend.
A weak pressure gradient is located across the area with high pressure generally located off of the East Coast with weak SE flow at the surface. WV imagery and 12z soundings continue to show the upper level low placed over northern Mississippi with SE flow aloft. With lower heights across the area due to the weakness in the ridge/upper low across the midsouth, RAP analysis is showing MLCAPE of about 700-1000 J/Kg across much of the area, and this is expected to grow with surface heating. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 70 90 71 / 30 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 68 89 70 / 40 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 68 90 70 / 30 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 65 87 66 / 30 20 30 20.
Showers and storms continue to slide down through the western half of the forecast area as an upper low pressure system meanders across the northern part of the area. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: The convective scenario for today could end up being similar to yesterday as we watch a meandering upper level low continue to dig southward around the eastern periphery of an expanding subtropical high over the central CONUS. Colder air aloft (H500 T ~ -10 deg C) and lift associated with the low will continue to interact with a very moist airmass to bring another round of potentially organized storms today per latest CAM guidance.
314 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Large scale flow consisting of a well amplified ridge centered over the central CONUS with an upstream positive tilt trough extending from about British Columbia to off the the western U. /Can border while strong high pressure remaining dominate feature over the region. Sultry conditions will prevail through tonight as dew point temps remain in the low 70s. On Saturday, dew point temps in the low/mid 70s combined with max temps pushing into the mid 90s will result in heat indices in the 100-107 degree range.
Saturday-Saturday night: Appears that western sections, especially along/west of Highway 14, will have warmer temperatures as moisture at or below 850MB mixes out given downslope component.
A deep trough over the Pacific Northwest will keep broad and moist southwest flow over the region today.
Given the high instability in place there is some potential for severe wind/hail.
For now will leave the TAFs dry, but KFSM and KMLC will have the higher potential for storms Saturday morning. Mesonet observations indicate that we are running about 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, but our forecast highs reflect that.
This will play a minor role with regard to afternoon heating for areas on the east side of this feature, though temperatures continue to quickly rise into the lower 90s as of the early afternoon.
However, a few models are trying to show convection developing later this evening over northwest SD with the storms progressing east into Mobridge area after 6Z. With the return of low clouds tonight into Saturday morning, and the potential for limited heating due to convection in North Dakota, confidence with high temperatures on Saturday is on the lower side.
An upper level low persists over the Pacific Northwest causing southerly flow over the Northern Rockies. Over the weekend, this low pressure system will weaken and start to retrograde back to the west.
High pressure northeast of Florida will keep generally easterly to southeasterly winds in place through the weekend, with winds turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.
642 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Typical summertime upper level ridging has become established across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the desert southwest. The exception is across the Northern Plains on the norther periphery of the ridging, where several thunderstorm complexes have dove southeast through the Mississippi Valley the last couple of days. In fact the ridge reaches it's peak Saturday, with highs approaching 100F for most areas. A cold front will slowly sag into northwest Nebraska Saturday night as the ridge weakens and begins to flatten slightly.
/issued 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/ RAP IR satellite analysis shows high pressure is firmly in place over the Lone Star State. Sounding profiles signal deep mixing tomorrow, so temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 71 90 / 20 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 90 70 88 / 20 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 70 90 / 20 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 88 66 85 / 20 20 20 30.
A mid level low pressure is currently stationary over the ARKLAMISS.
This is in association with an upper low that is traversing the region from east to west. As a weakness in the upper level pattern occurs over our area through Saturday, with the upper trough across the Northeast United States and a ridge to the west, this will promote additional showers and storms.
However, the latest RAP40 analysis shows two H100-H70 anticyclones consolidating over the Mid Atlc/Bermuda region, as well as an inverted trof over the ern GOMex. Ridge axis consolidating over the Mid Atlc/Bermuda region will generate a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze over the lcl waters overnight.
Highs Saturday of 88-92F with dewpoints in the lower 70s giving afternoon heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s.
North of the ridge troughing will be in the forecast area. Upper-level ridging will persist and help keep moisture shallow and limit thunderstorm coverage.
The previous MCS and outflow has also kept temps cooler with less mixing, especially northeast, so these areas may be susceptible to fog and have added some mention for a start. The main concern is the degree of mixing and how this would affect dewpoints, but a model blend seems quite realistic with values mainly in the lower 70s.
1040 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area Saturday.
621 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 High pressure over the mid Atlantic States will move southeast overnight as a weak cold front slowly sags south across the area Saturday afternoon. A secondary trough will drop south across Lake Erie and the east portion of the region Saturday night.
Low pressure situated off the OR/WA coast will continue southwest flow over the area on Saturday.
/issued 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/ (Tonight through Saturday) This afternoon, an upper-level ridge was located over the Desert Southwest/far west Texas. This ridge was slowly creeping into the central Plains, while an inverted trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley was gradually retrograding westward. One exception to this is that the aforementioned inverted trough will reach east Texas by tomorrow afternoon.
932 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Dewpoints have risen into the the lower 70s this evening across most of the cwa making conditions muggy. However, a few models are trying to show convection developing later this evening over northwest SD with the storms progressing east into Mobridge area after 6Z. With the return of low clouds tonight into Saturday morning, and the potential for limited heating due to convection in North Dakota, confidence with high temperatures on Saturday is on the lower side.
627 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Large scale flow consisting of a well amplified ridge centered over the central CONUS with an upstream positive tilt trough extending from about British Columbia to off the the western U. /Can border while strong high pressure remaining dominate feature over the region. Sultry conditions will prevail through tonight as dew point temps remain in the low 70s. On Saturday, dew point temps in the low/mid 70s combined with max temps pushing into the mid 90s will result in heat indices in the 100-107 degree range.
Showers/storms will increase over the waters this weekend as a moist se flow persists with inverted trough shifting west across s Fl.
628 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 With an upper level low pressure gradually moving SW over the state.
956 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 High pressure over the mid Atlantic States will move southeast overnight as a weak cold front slowly sags south across the area Saturday afternoon. A secondary trough will drop south across Lake Erie and the east portion of the region Saturday night.
/issued 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/ Upper ridging is in place over the region with an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. An isolated storm or two is possible south and west of the Pecos River in and around the higher terrain this afternoon.
Highs temperature both Sat/Sun should warm into the lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid/upper 90s.
1152 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area Saturday.
Strong subsidence in the water vapor imagery moved across the region today clearing the high cloudiness over our region to the east. Another weak short wave is forecast to move through the Ern Pac trof Sat with some occasional high cloudiness, but is not expected to increase the Delta Breeze substantially, allowing temps to modify. These clouds have been acting to keep temperatures a but cooler in the southern portion of the Sacramento Valley with highs in the low 80s, with the northern half of the Valley reaching into the upper 80s by late afternoon.
Dewpoints have risen into the the lower 70s this evening across most of the cwa making conditions muggy. However, a few models are trying to show convection developing later this evening over northwest SD with the storms progressing east into Mobridge area after 6Z. With the return of low clouds tonight into Saturday morning, and the potential for limited heating due to convection in North Dakota, confidence with high temperatures on Saturday is on the lower side.
206 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A mid/upper ridge over the Central High Plains is progged to build slowly north and east across the Central Plains as we move through the weekend. As it does, deep layer easterly flow will develop on the southern periphery of the H5 ridge leading to mostly benign weather conditions across the area.
The stationary low pressure system over the pacific northwest was continuing to pump moisture into the region and combined with daytime heating produced showers and isolated thunderstorms across some locations earlier.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Baja del Sur NE well into the Central Plains. To the east, the inverted trough has moved a little west over the past 24 hours, and now sits directly over the MS River. W/the upper ridge positioned where it is, the low-lvl thermal ridge will remain well to the west of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, allowing temperatures here to remain closer to normal throughout the extended.
The main upper low that is fairly stationary across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana will help to pump moisture into the area. With the counter-clockwise spin of the atmosphere thanks to the upper low, moisture will stream into the area form the Gulf of Mexico. Look for the highest chances to be in the southeast, but that will spread northwest through the day and into the evening hours.
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Another hot and humid day is expected across the region today as warm moist air gets pulled northward into the region between a high pressure system to the east and low pressure to the west. The frontal boundary associated with the low to the west will slide across the CWA late this afternoon into tonight, and the big question will be whether or not convection will be able to develop under strong instability and somewhat decent shear, but under a still fairly strong capping inversion.
319 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A ridge of high pressure remains over the Plains today. A weak upper level disturbance is moving to the west under the ridge. Warm and humid conditions will continue with highs once again topping out in the middle 80s to the lower 90s. Heat index values in the lower 90s to around 100 degrees can be expected this afternoon. Lows tonight will only cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Mid level ridging from northern Mexico in the Central Plains will continue to dominate the weather in our part of the world the next couple of days.
307 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area Saturday.
Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100- 107 degrees. Upper level high pressure, centered over the central U. , remains the main feature of influence with upper level low pressure systems both over the Pacific Northwest and eastern Canada. At the surface, we remain between low pressure to our west and high pressure to our east. This will allow for warm air and moisture advection to continue into the region, resulting in temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with dew points again in the low to mid 70s. It'll then feel like 98 to 107 degrees across the area, with those from Bates county MO up to Putnam county MO and areas west seeing the higher readings.
344 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 A sprawling upper level ridge extends from Baja California Sur northeast into central Canada early this morning. Through the short term, the upper ridge will extend a subtle influence to the northeast into the Midwest, while the strong upper trough drops southeast into the Northeast US.
However, near the lake expect much cooler conditions today. This should result in more pleasant conditions right along the lakeshore, with temperatures expected to remain in the low to mid 70s.
An inverted trough will move across cntl Fl today. Given the high PW (2+ inches) some storms may produce locally heavy rain in excess of 2 inches.
251 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 High pressure over the mid Atlantic States will move southeast overnight as a weak cold front slowly sags south across the area Saturday afternoon. A secondary trough will drop south across Lake Erie and the east portion of the region Saturday night.
342 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The upper level ridge axis becomes oriented over the region today, and will see the peak of the current heat wave as the low level thermal ridge shifts to the east - resulting in high temperatures into the 90s across the entire area. With dew points back into the lower to mid 70s by afternoon, heat indices will top out at 100 to 105 degrees - with localized higher values - and the Heat Advisory remains valid for this afternoon into mid evening. Another very mild to warm night tonight as lows only fall into the lower to mid 70s.
1106 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Large scale flow consisting of a well amplified ridge centered over the central CONUS with an upstream positive tilt trough extending from about British Columbia to off the the western U. /Can border while strong high pressure remaining dominate feature over the region. Sultry conditions will prevail through tonight as dew point temps remain in the low 70s. On Saturday, dew point temps in the low/mid 70s combined with max temps pushing into the mid 90s will result in heat indices in the 100-107 degree range.
Low temperatures tonight should bottom out in the low to upper 70s. Convection associated with an upper level trough looks to develop and shift into our northeastern counties by mid to late morning Saturday.