Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will stall out tonight across the forecast area, and eventually push east of the local area tomorrow morning. Clouds will decrease this evening as drier air advects in behind a cold front.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a strong ridge from the central Gulf Coast to the upper Midwest, but there was a weak minimum in the height/temperature fields centered over Tallahassee. The latest RAP analysis did not show any Q-G forcing associated with this low. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. An upper level low positioned across the western part of the CWA is expected to move slightly west on Sunday, and then shift eastward on Monday. The movement of this low will begin to sink a cold front into the southeast. Ahead of this cold front, winds will shift east on Sunday and there will be an increase in moisture. High temperatures will remain above normal through the period, with highs in the low 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
858 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Upper level low now straddling the ND/SD/MT border will continue to drift NE tonight while broad upper level ridging continues to build east across MT with anticyclonic NW flow aloft. As low pressure continues to track away from the region over ND, surface pressure gradient will continue to relax overnight with winds continuing to diminish. High pressure aloft will then bring mostly clear skies to the area for the rest of tonight and at least through Sunday. The remainder of this forecast period will remain dry with mostly clear skies and warming temperatures as high pressure aloft builds into the area from the west.
356 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the north Sunday and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The short range models have been trending a little bit more sparse further north, but kept at least a short period of likely POPs up to the Highway 2 corridor. Upper level low will begin to exit the area Sunday night with wraparound showers exiting northwestern Minnesota. Breezy north-northwest Sunday night into Monday before diminishing Monday evening as high pressure ridge begins to move in.
245 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Cold front was making steady progress through the forecast area, located from about Sioux City, IA southwestward to Hebron, NE at 07z. Then the upper trough moves through the area this afternoon. It will be significantly cooler than yesterday with highs 68-71 and breezy northwesterly conditions. The remainder of the short term will be dry and quiet with high pressure prevailing.
1018 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the north Sunday and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A vigorous upper-level low pressure system continues to lift across the northern plains late this afternoon, with a narrow plume of mid and high level moisture extending across eastern WY wrapping around the back side of the system. Beyond 12z Sunday, considerable drying will occur beneath a building upper-level ridge w/ no chances for precip through the remainder of the period.
Focus will then shift to the winds across central/north central SD later tonight on the back side of the low pressure. High pressure will build into the area Monday night, with clear skies and light winds. Sided heavily to the MAV guidance values which show cooler temps in the upper 30s to low 40s for most areas.
A deep upper level low located near the eastern Wyoming/Montana boarder has been lifting northeast today. With this, a wave rounding the trough axis has lifted into central Kansas causing scattered thunderstorms and showers to continue this afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler than this past week, topping out in the lower 70s. Sunday night high pressure will build into the region as the cold front pushes south across Texas. A dry and cooler period is expected across the area with high pressure in control through much of the upcoming week.
Upper Weak high pressure will keep things dry tonight. A cold front is currently located from eastern South Dakota through central Kansas and into west Texas. Sunday will another hot day with highs in the low to mid 90s. By Sunday night, the cold front will be quickly moving into Arkansas and eventually will move through much of the forecast area. On Monday, the cold front will be moving out of the forecast area with scattered thunderstorms expected mainly during the morning hours. Cooler air will be moving into the region behind the front so highs on Monday will only be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Cold front will approach our west counties by evening, bisect the area around 06z, then clear our eastern areas before daybreak.
A strong cold front is expected to race through SW KS tonight, reaching the northern zones around 3 AM, and clearing Medicine Lodge by 7 AM. Pressure gradient behind the cold front will support strong north winds, gusting 30-40 mph late tonight through Sunday morning. Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 40s at Syracuse/Hamilton county to the lower 60s at Kiowa/Barber county. Highs only in the lower 70s, near room temperature, and actually several degrees below normal for a change. Radiational cooling will be at maximum strength with light winds and very dry air, and followed the coolest guidance in the low to mid 40s.
740 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and becoming centered over the northeastern states on Sunday. A cold front will push through the region late Monday and Monday night and should help generate much needed rainfall on the order of a few to several tenths of an inch. 18Z Temps in the lower 60s across the nrn and western mtns. Skies will become clear in most places by early this evening and PWATs will be below normal under the subsidence of the approaching, sprawling 1028mb area of high pressure bubble. Clouds increase Monday ahead of significant cold front headed our way.
120 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions through Sunday. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 50s to around 60.
1145 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Upper level low now straddling the ND/SD/MT border will continue to drift NE tonight while broad upper level ridging continues to build east across MT with anticyclonic NW flow aloft. As low pressure continues to track away from the region over ND, surface pressure gradient will continue to relax overnight with winds continuing to diminish. The remainder of this forecast period will remain dry with mostly clear skies and warming temperatures as high pressure aloft builds into the area from the west.
KAMX detects scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Lower Keys, as well as over nearshore and offshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys. Temperatures range from the upper 70s in rain cooled areas to the lower 80s elsewhere. In the low levels of the atmosphere, a weak pressure pattern will prevail overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the Tennessee Valley tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be located near the panhandle of Florida overnight.
55 Main concerns in the forecast cycle are chances of convection today through Monday associated with a cold front, then a temperature forecast, especially the cooler values behind the front. Surface dew point temperatures were from the lower 70s to mid to upper 60s over the central and north. Tonight, the cold front and weather system over the Plains will make slow progress toward AR, and some chance of convection will be possible late over northwest AR. Lows will be from the mid and upper 60s north, to the lower 70s south. Monday night, the front will gradually move southeast and usher in much cooler air over AR, as well as dry weather conditions.
An upper low centered over southeast Montana and northern Wyoming will move into the Northern Plains tonight. As this occurs, a cold front will move east into western Minnesota by 12Z Sunday. Localized heavy rain will be a threat given the high moisture and multiple storms tracking over the same area with storm motions south/southwest. There could be a narrow area of instability that develops Sunday afternoon just ahead of the cold front over far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Synoptically the extended begins with a trough digging into the central Great Lakes and cutting off by late on Monday.
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with a warming trend through the first part of the week. A cool northerly flow is over the area between the departing cold upper low and strong ridging building just off the west coast. The ridge nudges slowly ewd thru Mon bringing a dry, stable and warmer airmass. The exiting upper low is splitting with the srn portion forecast to close off by Sun morning over nrn Mexico. This closed low meanders slowly wwd thru Mon drawing in tropical moisture from ern Mexico and TX. The low then starts to lift n Tue with some of this moisture spreading into srn UT then the low accelerates nwd Wed spreading the moisture across the CWA.
The remainder of this forecast period will remain dry with mostly clear skies and warming temperatures as high pressure aloft builds into the area from the west.
847 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and becoming centered over the northeastern states on Sunday. A cold front will push through the region late Monday and Monday night. Clouds increase Monday ahead of significant cold front headed our way.
Expect light winds overnight should help to keep temperatures above freezing across the urban corridor and northeast plains. with an upper trough extending southward across the central and southern rockies. Some light rain and snow showers continue to fall across the high country. A strong upper ridge is going to build over the western U.
Strong upper level ridging continued across the lower Ohio Valley early this morning while high pressure remained across the Great Lakes region. An area of low pressure was analyzed over North Dakota with a strong cold front stretching south through the central Plain states. The aforementioned cold front will approach the region late tonight and likely be along or just west of the I-65 corridor by daybreak Monday.
A weak upper level low continues to slowly drift westward over the tri-state region tonight, yielding scattered thunderstorms over Apalachee Bay at this hour. The 00Z TAE sounding showed an overall increase in moisture throughout the column as overall flow has shifted to southerly this evening with the westward movement of the low. Afternoon high temperatures will generally run a few degrees cooler across the region today, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
139 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Dry and seasonal under high pressure through Sunday. A cold front brings rain and scattered thunderstorms on Monday. High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures through Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold front that will cross the region Monday afternoon.
Looking for a quiet weather pattern as temps settle into the lower 70s by sunrise. Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery shows large upper level trough dominating the CONUS region from the northern plains to the dessert southwest and is moving slowly to the east.
542 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A vigorous upper-level low pressure system continues to lift across the northern plains late this afternoon, with a narrow plume of mid and high level moisture extending across eastern WY wrapping around the back side of the system. Beyond 12z Sunday, considerable drying will occur beneath a building upper-level ridge w/ no chances for precip through the remainder of the period.
The current water vapor imagery indicating a amplified trough across the central and southern Rockies, with south-southwest flow over the Southern Plains. The GFS model indicate a strong upper level low developing over northwest Mexico through Sunday, and then retrograde slowly west by Sunday night. At the surface, a cold front will move south across West Central Texas Sunday afternoon and night. Also, temperatures will be much cooler by Monday with highs in the 60s to around 70.
A few rain and snow showers hanging on late this afternoon in wrap-around flow as the main upper low continues to lift northeast into the North Dakota. Cloud cover will be the big factor with potential freezing temperatures overnight with our higher valleys the biggest concern. Will hold off on an highlights for freezing temps at this time with expectation that any run to or slightly below freezing will be very late and short-lived. Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure building overhead.
The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that the cold front edges into the nw portions of se TX Monday afternoon/evening.
627 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large swath of showers and thunderstorms has developed this afternoon stretching from TX into central KS and into the Dakotas ahead of a deep upper-level trough over the Intermountain West. Showers and a few storms will continue into Sunday morning until the main cold front swings through during the late morning and early afternoon hours. By Monday an extensive area of high pressure will build into most of the central U. Eventually, a surface cold front will sweep through all TAF sites and push lingering showers out of the region between 09z and 15z Sunday, leaving behind gradually clearing skies and northwest winds.
223 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016 This morning's wx map shows a cdfnt extending from an upper low over the nrn plains to nwrn TX, while an upper ridge stretched from the Great Lakes thru the sern US. There was also a weak upper low over nrn FL which was bringing an increase in mid/high level moisture over much of central and srn AL, as well as GA.
High pressure is folding overhead with clear skies for all of SE Oregon and SW Idaho. Winds are expected to continue to weaken through the night, with another round of cooler than normal temperatures on tap. The building ridge will mean warming afternoon temperatures through early in the week with readings above normal in most locations.
1049 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Upper low over the Rockies is elongating as previously advertised. Main low is moving into MT/Daks while 150 kt 250 mb jet over BC begins to dive down the back of the trough and will eventually carve out another low over northern Mexico by late tomorrow. A cold front is still on track to push rapidly through the forecast area starting around 9 pm in the far northwest counties and clearing the area by around 4 am in the southeast. Sunday looks to be cooler, breezy but mostly sunny. Northwest flow aloft continues into Sunday night and Monday morning as a trough moves eastward and out of the region.
The area of strongest winds will also be where the lowest humidity values will be this afternoon. Given the lighter winds than Sunday, grassland fire danger will max out more in the high category west.
A back door cold front is pushing SW across srn VA/nrn NC this morning, reaching the NC mountains this afternoon. The front stalls as it is blocked by the higher terrain, so the rest of the area will continue to be stable and dry as the midlevel ridge remains centered over Middle TN.
155 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Aviation Clouds and rain chances will increase Sunday with the approach of cold front.
258 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 One upper level trough extended from an upper low over the North Dakota/South Dakota state line southwestward into southeast Colorado. Another upper level low was just about ready to cutoff from the flow over northern Mexico. The northern stream trough will help to drive a cold front southward across the panhandles this morning. Winds will decrease into the 5 to 10 mph range tonight as high pressure starts to build in.
712 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the north Sunday and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday. Dry high pressure will continue clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures today, with the exception of patchy morning valley fog early this morning, a well as some stratus in the southeast ridges. Expect some mid and high clouds to begin to arrive later tonight ahead of approaching cold front for Monday. Deepening mid level trough will be closing off over the upper Great Lakes Monday as it drives a cold front across the region. Showers will be exiting east in the evening as the front shifts east of the ridges.
Additional thunderstorm are expected to develop later this morning and become more numerous as cold front moves into northeast Oklahoma around mid morning. Cold front will continue pushing south through the area this afternoon however overall thunderstorm coverage along the front may begin to decrease as region becomes split between upper low developing to the west and upper trough lifting northeast.
/issued 405 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/ An upper ridge axis is currently along and just east of the Mississippi River, while a large upper trough is centered over Southeast Montana/Northeast Wyoming. The southerly flow between these two features is drawing moisture northward across the Plains and aiding in the development of convection along a surface cold front. The Rockies trough will split with the northern stream moving northeastward towards Canada, and the southern stream low becoming cutoff over Northwest Mexico. The Gulf trough will continue to slowly move west, but is only expected to reach near the western tip of the Florida Panhandle before dropping southward back into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface cold front will slowly move toward the area and showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday.
653 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 For the 00Z TAFs, a strong cold front will track across the terminal sites late tonight with a brief period of MVFR cigs psbl at both KGUY and KAMA. Gusty north to northeast winds will develop behind the cold front, but should remain below AWW criteria at KAMA. Pacific cold front over eastern zones at this time expected to move slowly westward this evening before being overtaken by much stronger polar front.
641 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A strong upper level ridge over the MS river valley including IL is providing another very warm and somewhat humid summerlike day, with temps in the mid 80s to near 90F and dewpoints in the 60s. A 564 dm 500 mb low along the eastern MT/WY border will lift into southern Manitoba by Sunday afternoon and push the cold front east into the IL river valley late Sunday afternoon. The 12z model runs are showing a slightly slower progression of the cold front Sunday night. Much cooler air will limit highs on Monday to the upper 60s N of I-74, with low 70s in the rest of our forecast area.
1236 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Dry and seasonal under high pressure through Sunday. A cold front brings rain and scattered thunderstorms on Monday. High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures through Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold front that will cross the region Monday afternoon.
Have also augmented timing of winds increasing behind the main push of a north to south cold front. A prefrontal trough/pacific front has already shifted winds at KDHT and KGUY out of the north but it will be a few more hours before we see wind gusts increase. /Issued 653 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/ For the 00Z TAFs, a strong cold front will track across the terminal sites late tonight with a brief period of MVFR cigs psbl at both KGUY and KAMA. Gusty north to northeast winds will develop behind the cold front, but should remain below AWW criteria at KAMA. Pacific cold front over eastern zones at this time expected to move slowly westward this evening before being overtaken by much stronger polar front.
1125 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and become centered over the northeastern US Sunday. A cold front will push through the region late Monday and Monday night. Clouds increase Monday ahead of significant cold front headed our way.
647 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 The main portion of a strong upper low/trough over the Northern Rockies will lift northeastward across the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Sunday night, while the southern portion of this trough breaks off and shifts southwestward into northern Mexico and the Baja region. Forcing for ascent from the right-rear quadrant of an upper jet streak, and low-level convergence near the front will be focused in this high moisture corridor. This will support numerous showers/thunderstorms in especially central/south-central Kansas through about 06z tonight, with the higher rain probabilities then shifting to the Flint Hills/Southeast KS late tonight into midday Sunday.
731 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Another day of dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected on Sunday before a cold front brings rain and scattered thunderstorms on Monday. Dry air is rapidly moving into the area this afternoon behind a cold front that has now slipped south of the Mason-Dixon line. As such, a few of the lower spots in Forest County as well as possibly Garrett County may manage to see some frost depending upon how much the wind backs off overnight. Fries Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold front that will cross the region Monday afternoon.
Surface and upper level low pressure will lift northeast across the forecast area tonight into Sunday morning. Cold front has made it through northwest ND and should move across the southwest this evening as the surface and upper low finally begin to lift northeast.
137 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure over southeast Canada builds across the area through Sunday night. The high slides offshore on Monday.
A strong upper ridge will build Sunday and Monday for sunny warmer weather.
220 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Upper level ridge axis that has slowly been working its way towards the area this week will finally move east of the region later today. Approaching trough in the Midwest will help push the ridge east and bring precip chances to the area on Monday.
A strong long wave ridge has built into the area from the west with northwest flow aloft. The easterly flow will peak tonight and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the ridges of extreme southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County for gusty winds and poor RH recoveries. The ridge will move very slowly east through the area with the ridge axis breaking to the east Sunday evening.
510 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A few rain and snow showers hanging on late this afternoon in wrap-around flow as the main upper low continues to lift northeast into the North Dakota. Cloud cover will be the big factor with potential freezing temperatures overnight with our higher valleys the biggest concern. Will hold off on an highlights for freezing temps at this time with expectation that any run to or slightly below freezing will be very late and short-lived. Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure building overhead.
High pressure will erode during the day tomorrow and give way to an upper trough digging across the northcentral U. Now for the news everyone has been wanting to hear: this upper low will be responsible for a long awaited cool down this week! We should begin to feel this on Monday as temperatures will likely only rise into the low to mid 80s.