Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT FOG PATCHY OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. VERY FRIGID CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES AT ALAMOSA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 20 BELOW ZERO WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES BUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOING THE SAME.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE ARKLAMISS AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD THRU THE OH VALLEY. A MORE POWERFUL TROF WILL THEN FOLLOW BEHIND IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT TRAVELING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
820 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
/issued 327 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016/ Procession of upper troughs will continue this week. First upper trough passes over NM this morning and W TX during the day.
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH MAY COME ACROSS THE KLBX AND KGLS TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY OR VARIABLE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT THE COAST. AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S.
418 AM MST MON JAN 11 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER UINTA BASIN AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.
Weak low pressure is forecast to shift southeast out of eastern Nebraska into southeast Iowa by Noon along with the upper level support, and then east-northeast into northern IL by this evening. First part of the clipper system will be passing through this evening, with the highest PoP's concentrated in that time frame. Fresh snow cover could get temps close to zero in some areas by late Tuesday evening, but as winds shift southwest as a high pressure ridge passes, some leveling off of the temperatures should occur late.
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG COAST ALREADY AS THE LAST GASP OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIMPS TOWARD THE COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY WEST SIDE LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS AS IF FRIDAY WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT A DRY DAY AREA-WIDE AS A VERY WEAK RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA.
POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS.
928 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT LEAVING DRY.
613 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
612 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
1033 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
910 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING AND EVEN THOUGH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES. THIS DRY-ISH PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SO SNOWFALL RETURNS TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW SAGS TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE NAM HOLDS A PORTION OF ENERGY OVER CENTRAL UTAH.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD AND MOVES THE PRECIP AREA AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY AND WILL BECOME COLDER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN EXPECT SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND KRWL AS WELL AS KCDR AND KAIA LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
619 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPDATE 6:15 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE WHICH IS WARMER IN NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY AND WILL BECOME COLDER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
1015 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH FOG ALSO IMPACTING VISIBILITY IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
635 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
320 AM PST THU JAN 7 2016 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE PASSAGE OF A VERY SUBTLE 500 MB TROUGH THROUGH THE LONE STAR STATE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING IS MOVING EAST ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
Chances for precipitation will increase from the southwest toward the northeast late in the afternoon as the low approaches from that direction. Temperatures will continue to hover in the low to mid 30s this morning as cloud cover and winds prevent much cooling from occurring the remainder of the night. rising to the low to mid 40s this afternoon. A deep trof is developing over the western half of the country as the Midwest remains under mainly southwesterly flow, keeping mild temperatures in place with increasing llvl moisture as well. Temperatures may have had a chance to become even warmer, but the series of waves and the precip/clouds forecast will counter that. Todays highs in the 40s will end up with temperatures remaining above freezing through the overnight and the second wave bringing likely rain through Friday.
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VARYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
ON THE SOUTHERN-MOST EDGE OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST IN NORTHERN AREAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE WEST OF KDHT CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
205 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances within this flow nearby our region.
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THIS AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
147 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW CONTINUES.
401 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING. A SPLIT PATTERN EXISTS IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TEXAS AND NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE. A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CLOSE OFF TO A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AND WITH WEAK FORCING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIND/HAIL.
ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT IN MORE OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
STAGNANT LATE SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGING THAT WE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF RENEGADE CELLS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
BUT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
447 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER KEYS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOLLOW BY A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW WILL THEN LINGER OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A CLOUD LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES OF THE LOWER KEYS.
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY NIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST.
AND PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THIS WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SAG INTO NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN US/SE CANADA WILL LEAD TO MORE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
204 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER KENTUCKY AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG RIDGE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS FOUND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END SCATTERED POP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of western North America with downstream ridging centered across the central CONUS. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric forcing for ascent. The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in check across eastern CO/northwest KS.
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer conditions. Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip with the ridge axis in place. May have some thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the lower and middle 90s.
110 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS OVER OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
300 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 TONIGHT-SAT: THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EXTREME WRN KS. POSSIBLY EVEN TWEAKING THOSE NUMBERS A LITTLE WARMER STILL.
ITSELF TUCKED UNDER BROAD AND RATHER SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER/CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH UPPER RIDGE FOLDING OVER THE UPPER LOW /QUASI-REX BLOCK/. WITH RESIDUAL BAGGINESS IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER WESTERN ND WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN OK AND WEAK COOL FRONT INTO SOUTHERN ID. SO HAVE LOWERED SOME IN THE NORTHWEST BUT KEPT READINGS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THERMAL RIDGE/BEST MIXING COINCIDE.
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE RIDGE. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL LINGER.
And the deepening of the upper level low moving down the Washington/Oregon coastline will actually shift the precipitation back westward across Montana and into parts of central Idaho.
347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 (Tonight and Friday) Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control. Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. Models continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest. By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge, which has been so persistent over Texas, won't relinquish its position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas, from the west, each afternoon.
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. WITH A DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RECORD HIGHS TODAY: YEAR WILLISTON 102 1978 MINOT 101 1940 DICKINSON 99 2007 BISMARCK 101 1978 JAMESTOWN 99 1922 THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD CAP ANY CONVECTION TODAY. TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND START SLOWLY WORKING TOWARDS THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN.
1241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 UPPER RIDGING AND WARM AND HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY CHANGES. COULD BE EVEN COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS HANG AROUND AS IN YESTERDAY SINCE WERE NOW INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKY AND HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the forecast area through the weekend which will result in high temperatures remaining above normal. However, a plume of mid and upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and again Friday. The mentioned plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while the ua ridge will build a little further westward. Will still carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. AS FOR THE LOW DIGGING DOWN THE COAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR WEST.
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. 590DAM HIGH EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. TO GRADUALLY SHIFT JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH FRIDAY.
Temperatures are in the lower 90s with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s in many places. 12Z upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depicts a large amplified upper ridge across the middle of the country, extending up into Canada. An upper level low was situated over the Great Lakes region. Over the next several days this ridge axis will slowly shift east with time. In the meantime, our region will generally be on the east side of the upper ridge aloft and high pressure at the surface.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE DEEP- LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS.
A SIMILAR DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STILL IN PLAY.
SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER.
240 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY ANCHORED. PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND SUPPORT AN INCREASING POS THETA-E ADV REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A LINGERING MONSOON IMPULSE.
Summertime high pressure was established across much of the nation's mid section keeping conditions rather calm. With little to no precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower 90s in nearly all locations.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER KENTUCKY AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG RIDGE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS FOUND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TONIGHT.
WILL LEAVE ANY LATE SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL FORECAST NEAR 50 PCT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT DRIVING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA TONIGHT.