Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
907 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure builds into the region through the weekend through early next, however moist conditions will continue with fog expected each night and morning. Ridging builds in farther on Sunday as moisture from Jose nears from the south. Skies will become sunny from west to east under increasing subsidence from the high pressure once fog dissipates. The week begins with an upper level ridge through the northeast united states, and a strong blocking high downstream of Iceland in the Atlantic. South of the ridge, Hurricane Jose will try to push northwards around a Bermuda high.
CC /ISSUED 518 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017/ Widespread precipitation winds down and becomes spotty from northwest to southeast through this evening as the slow-moving upper level low moves east.
Have trimmed back patchy FG mention a bit this morning to include mainly Deep E TX/Ncntrl LA/Scntrl AR, as temps have been running a couple degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago which may help inhibit more extensive FG development.
A very summer-ish Saturday with highs about 8-10 degrees above climatology, and dewpoints somewhat sticky in the lower to mid 60s. Widespread dense valley fog has developed this morning across much of the area as high pressure has settled over the region. The weak disturbance that has become semi-stationary aloft within the ridge, and created showers over the past couple days, will again bring the chance for a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder, over NEPA Sat afternoon.
However, model forecast soundings show that the capping inversion due to the high pressure aloft will be a bit tough to erode; so, any showers that do develop will be fairly shallow and likely toward and off of the coast. Later today and on Sunday the upper level high pressure area will continue to develop over the Upper Texas coastal areas as an upper low pressure trough digs across the western part of the country.
711 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Dense fog is currently observed at all TAF sites, and will be slow to lift with the low sun angle of September and calm winds.
1142 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Hydro High pressure will bring fair and warm weather today and into Sunday. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through. Surface and upper ridging continues to bring fair and warm weather into Sunday, but moisture is streaming north today and tomorrow. A weak cold front moves into western zones by Sunday afternoon and there is enough instability to allow for a few thunderstorms.
1147 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Hurricane Jose to remain over the western Atlantic through the weekend with weak high pressure residing across the Midlands and CSRA. Hurricane Jose will remain well offshore of the Carolinas as it continues moving slowly northward with weak high pressure over the forecast area. High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast U.
Onshore winds will deepen the moist layer over the low levels this weekend and result in a continued reduction in the diurnal temperature ranges.
Latest surface analysis depicts leading edge of the wind shift associated with a cold front has already moved across much of the OK Panhandle and northwest third of the Texas Panhandle, and have adjusted wind grids to account for this during the afternoon hours. Cold front drops into northern part of forecast area before 12z Sunday, bringing a VFR overcast stratocumulus layer to GUY following frontal passage.
Widespread precipitation winds down and becomes spotty from northwest to southeast through this evening as the slow-moving upper level low moves east.
1052 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Updated the forecast to make minor changes to the high temperatures and sky cover. As we remain on the periphery of an expansive high pressure area over western New York, dry weather will continue through the afternoon over our area.
The most robust cumulus are currently across the lower Atchafalaya basin and Vermilion Bay where area radar shows some scattered showers have developed. a cool front will move out of the Rockies and into the Plain States while closer to home high pressure dominates the region but this will break down a bit in the coming days as moisture streams out of the gulf and into the region.
Cold front drops into northern part of forecast area before 12z Sunday, bringing a VFR overcast stratocumulus layer to GUY following frontal passage.
The highest elevations of the Bighorns will continue to see isolated rain/snow showers through the rest of the afternoon. Ascent with passage of upper trof will bring another period of precipitation from west to east from this morning into the afternoon, then descent takes over as heights begin to rise from the west. Today will again be much cooler than normal with high temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
1014 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure centered to the east will keep dry weather across the Ohio Valley today through Sunday.
A transitory weak ridge will move through the CWA today. The short term will start out with a short wave upper ridge over the region today, with the upper ridge axis passing across the CWA during the day today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 65 85 66 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 63 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0.
918 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Sunday.
1151 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for much of the upcoming 7 days.
Precipitation ongoing through middle of Snake Plain as upper low continues to shift east through the region.
646 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Somewhat complex setup for shower/storm chances today-tonight, with a lot of small scale features to contend with - aside from the front/trough combo for tonight. The trough's associated north-south running cold front moves in tonight, gradually making its way into eastern WI Sunday morning.
Expect a high risk for rip currents and high surf at east central Florida beaches today with beach erosion possible near the high tide cycles. Lows will range from the lower 70s over portions of the interior to the mid 70s along the coast.
Some higher based cumulus has also developed across portions of the area, helping to keep the lower visibilities from becoming too widespread. Aloft, troughing rules out across the West, with ridging in the East. Highs will be in the lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. In general, models depict a mean mid-level ridge over the lower Ohio Valley through the period. This mean ridge breaks down temporarily as a result of Jose as it rides up the Atlantic coast.
A pleasant day on tap today with cooler than average temperatures, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.
1010 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. High temperatures in the low-mid 80s appear on target. The increasing cloudiness across the east will limit insolation, yielding high temperatures Sunday a couple of degrees cooler than today.
705 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair and warm weather today and into Sunday. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through. Surface and upper ridging continues to bring fair and warm weather into Sunday, but moisture is streaming north today and tomorrow. A weak cold front moves into western zones by Sunday afternoon and there is enough instability to allow for a few thunderstorms.
319 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Upper level ridging will move over the forecast area tonight and depart on Sunday.
Observations in SW VA have finally transitioned over to rain, although extreme NE portions of Russell County may still be seeing snow with temps just above freezing. Temps in our NE portions are expected to stay above freezing, even in the mountains with a strong inversion aloft, so freezing rain/drizzle should not be an issue. The low level moisture will likely be slow to clear tomorrow, so will keep broken to overcast clouds through the day, and lean high temps toward the cooler GFS MOS guidance.
High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week, with a warming trend. The weak warm air advection aloft has not been able to overcome the freezing temperatures in place that are only now showing signs of increasing this afternoon. Did increase the snow amounts in in the highest elevations near Flat Top mountain in Raleigh County, with no consequence to the warning already in place there. Have the whole system exiting quicker than the previous forecast late tonight, with clearing also rapidly entering the picture, and expect a largely sunny day Sunday with temperatures in the lowlands back towards 50 degrees.
Our best rain chances remain in place for the Tues/Thurs timeframe with the approach of the very well-defined upper trof/low from the west and its associated cold front. However, that being said, the progged track of this upper low is indicating that some strong dynamics could be in play when all is done.
A low pressure system will move through region tonight and Sunday bringing snow to northern Nevada. Temperatures rebound nicely into the 60s across the state as drier conditions associated with high pressure builds over the region.
255 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 (Tonight and Sunday) A weak cold front this afternoon extended from near Sterling City to just north of San Angelo to just south of Brady. A broad upper ridge over Texas will gradually shift east into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will develop over our area, as a strong upper trough moves east across much of the western CONUS. The aforementioned front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front toward the I-20 corridor overnight. The warm front will move north of our area on Sunday morning.
327 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 An upper trough of low pressure will drop south through Western New England and into southern New England overnight.
This has pumped copious amounts of moisture into the area with its warmer air overrunning a cold dome to the northeast that has been slow to retreat. As a result heavy snow fell through the northeast third of the state overcoming initially warm roads to accumulate and create treacherous driving conditions generally from the Mountain Parkway northeast as well as on the ridges to the southeast. Readings currently vary northeast to southwest across the JKL CWA from the low 30s in the cold air to the lower 40s nearer the Tennessee border while dewpoints are not far from temperatures everywhere contributing to patchy fog.
A weak cold front will backdoor its way into our NE terminals after midnight with winds shifting N/NE at ELD/MLU/TXK prior to sunrise.
Gusty northwest winds will continue through mid afternoon across NE OK/NW AR behind cold front. Cold front pushing into northwest Arkansas/southeast Oklahoma late this morning, currently located near a Bentonville/MKO/Stuart line.
258 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 The upper low center is currently centered over Iowa this afternoon. While clouds may attempt to break towards the Emporia area by late afternoon, the stratus is expected to fill back in overnight as the system exits eastward and ridging amplifies across the central plains. Sfc dewpoints in the 50s, possibly 60, advects northward towards the CWA, while a stout 850 mb jet overruns a warm front bisecting the CWA west to east.
400 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 The primary forecast challenge through Sunday deals stratus coverage and (freezing?) drizzle chances due to persistent upslope flow and good surface moisture. Isentropic analysis and forecast soundings show abundant dry air in the mid and upper levels, indicating all the moisture to be trapped in the lowest 100mb or so. Temperatures will be critical as forecast lows hover right around the freezing mark. Higher confidence of freezing drizzle exists over north central Neb where lows may dip into the 20s. Normals for the season around 30 for lows and low 50s for the highs.
Upper trof moves through the region over the next few days for continued mild temperatures. Some energy in the base of the trof could bring some precipitation to southern Montana on Sunday night. Flow turns northwest behind the trof, for unsettled but cooler weather.
1242 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Expired Winter Weather Advisory earlier and issued Special Weather Statement for patchy freezing drizzle in our far NW CWA. Forcing within saturation is likely localized, but patchy freezing drizzle still can't be ruled out based on past obs/reports. Travel impacts continue across the area as light snow lingers in the valley and with some freezing drizzle developing to the west. In the wake of the light snow freezing drizzle and or reduced visibilities down to around 3 miles is occuring across much of central and northeastern ND. Will continue winter weather advisory with travel impacts from slippery roads as road temps remains just below freezing across the region.
417 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Issued 355 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Main forecast concern is timing of next short wave trough approaching the area later Sunday afternoon. Water vapor imagery showing cirrostratus associated with outgoing trough is finally thinning over the western CWA. We kept the low end chance PoP for some light rain moving into the far west after 21z Sunday.
One mid level vort max will skirt the northwest, and temperature profiles via BUFKIT suggest a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, rain, and snow this evening before moving into the Turtle Mountains overnight Another vort max will organize over central South Dakota and move into the James River Valley by early Sunday morning, which will also bring chances of a wintry mix. The 12z NAM did show a brief period of freezing rain possible with a warm nose aloft and a saturated surface layer, but dry air in the 700-500mb layer should help to cool the warm nose fairly quickly as ice crystals begin to fall from the near saturated layer above, resulting in mainly snow. Light freezing rain or freezing drizzle will potentially linger on the backside of the snow, as far west as the Bismarck area.
212 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Southwest flow aloft will prevail tonight and Sunday ahead of an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin.
334 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Northwest flow aloft transitions to more of ridge later today into tonight as split flow southern system tracks well to the south of Upper Michigan, from the Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Upper trof moves through the region over the next few days for continued mild temperatures. Some energy in the base of the trof could bring some precipitation to southern Montana on Sunday night. Flow turns northwest behind the trof, for unsettled but cooler weather. Aside from a few pockets of dense freezing fog this morning, A lingering glancing shot of mixed precipitation is expected to move north through Blaine and Phillips county with little if any impact.
147 PM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A low pressure trough along the West Coast will maintain onshore flow and cool weather this weekend under a deep marine layer with areas of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog extending onto the coastal slopes.
With the upper level low still back over north central IA, there will be several more hours of strong lift, setting up a band of heavy wet snow roughly along an NW to SE axis from Independence through Clinton to Bureau County IL. A dry slot further southwest, currently SE of the upper low, may result in a period of light precipiation in the form of drizzle with fog over SE IA and NE MO until mid to late afternoon when light snow should spread back south into the area. a wet snow heavy at times with some thunder-snow this morning to near the highway 34 corridor.
340 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Surface cold front has pushed through the area with breezy northwest winds behind it. Temperatures on Sunday morning will be quite a bit cooler than this morning, with lows in the 30s and 40s for much of the area.
An upper trough over the Pacific NW Sun morning will move into the Great Basin by the evening, bringing a return of snow showers to the central mts by the aftn. Look for highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains.
A cold front continues to work through western Montana this afternoon, with showers continuing across much of western Montana and central Idaho. Behind the cold front, breezy southwest to west winds will continue into the early evening, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. This evening and tonight, a low pressure circulation currently over eastern Washington will move over northwest Montana.
Several Rounds of Moderate to Heavy Rainfall Sunday Night into A cold front is moving through the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri this afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight into the lower and middle 30s with afternoon highs Sunday in the middle to upper 50s. A large and deep upper level trough will slowly move across the western U.
However, snow amounts tonight will not be as heavy as last night and snow is not expected at the pass until after 8 PM when temperatures have decreased to near or below freezing. The broad low pressure off the Oregon coast is sending another front inland this evening. So far southerly wind ahead of this trough is keeping low level temperatures above freezing but moderate showers along the coastal range is pulling the snow levels down to near 2000 feet. South to Southeast winds ahead of this low are also quite breezy in the Shasta Valley and the Klamath Basin. Temperatures in the Illinois Valley and over the Sexton Pass are forecast to drop into the lower 30s as precipitation moves into the area tonight. The low pressure is expected to move inland Sunday and weaken to a trough.
424 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 (Tonight and Sunday) A weak cold front this afternoon extended from near Sterling City to just north of San Angelo to just south of Brady. A broad upper ridge over Texas will gradually shift east into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will develop over our area, as a strong upper trough moves east across much of the western CONUS. The aforementioned front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front toward the I-20 corridor overnight. The warm front will move north of our area on Sunday morning.
236 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Tonight, the Pacific trough to our west will continue to dig southeastward through the West Coast. PWs will be near an inch, and upslope flow along the surface cold front could be just strong enough to produce light showers across parts of the FA area with an isolated thunderstorm developing in the far SE portions of the Rolling Plains.
Tonight-Sunday: Main upper trough moves from Saskatchewan across Manitoba Sunday, with increasing southerly flow keeping decent moisture advection in place over our CWA. Weak high pressure to follow for the daylight hours on Tue. On Wed with projected high temps above freezing some periods of rain or mixed may occur. As snow (and possibly freezing drizzle) overspread the region after midnight tonight and Sunday conditions should decrease to MVFR/IFR once again.
However, brisk easterly winds will continue, keeping it chilly across the east and warmer out toward Madison and points west.
229 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Water vapor shows large scale trof over the western CONUS with SW flow aloft into the Northern Plains. At the surface, broad SE flow covers the region with strong high north of the Great Lakes and lee trof east of the Rockies. Thermal profiles towards central SD suggest more of a freezing rain/drizzle threat with some light icing possible late tonight and early Sunday before short wave ejects further east.
Highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's are expected, slightly cooler across the ridges of western Nebraska due to south to southeast winds at the surface. For Sunday and Sunday night, models are in good agreement showing a weak upper level trough moving eastward across the Great Basin region with some jet dynamics aloft across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska through late Sunday evening. A cold front is expected to slowly push south through the day with limited available colder air to work with. Cold air will be limited behind the cold front with models showing the system splitting as it moves into Wyoming.
Perhaps could be a flash of lightning and rumble of thunder over NE WA/N ID but given the cooler airmass the risk is very limited and I did not put them in the official forecast.
400 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Current sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Florida coast maintaining a srly low-level flow over the forecast area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low over the upper Mississippi Valley while weak ridging is again noted from the Mexican Plateau nwd through TX and into the srn Plains. The upper low dropping through upper Midwest should help push a sfc front swd to near perhaps the I-20 corridor over the next 24-36 hours. Otherwise forecast models continue to indicate at least minimal capping under the weak ridging as it builds slowly ewd. A storm system coming ashore along the Pacific coast will push ewd, helping flatten the mid/upper-level ridge.
318 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Generally tranquil conditions will prevail through the early part of the new week as ridging aloft builds into the central Gulf Coast region and eventually across much of the eastern conus. In the near term, a short wave trough moving across the Ohio Valley and into the mid Atlantic region will push a cold front south toward the forecast area later tonight and Sunday.
310 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 High pressure is centered just east of Central Florida and continues to support moderate east breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are a little warmer today and have reached the upper 70s in most locations.
207 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A back door front will move through the region late tonight bringing rain, with wedge conditions and associated low cloudiness and cooler temps developing over our forecast area and lingering through Sunday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Warm and dry weather will continue through Sunday, with overhead ridging providing stable conditions and strong high pressure over the Gulf coupled with a Plains low pressure system supporting moderate to strong south southeast winds. High temps Sunday will range from the mid 80s east to the mid 90s west, slightly warmer than normal by 5 to 10 degrees. As the H5 ridge shifts east and a more southwesterly mid level flow develops over the Sierra Madre Oriental range of Mexico Sunday night, unorganized isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop well to the west, but should keep their distance from deep South Texas and the RGV.
113 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A low pressure system will track across the area this evening, which will bring rain and lowering vis/cigs to all TAF sites.
110 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017 A cold front is currently pushing through the region this afternoon. The coldest readings will be across central Missouri where readings in the low 20s are expected.
High pressure will continue to build into the area today and will keep the sunshine around for the next couple of day. but Friday will be cooler as a reinforcing shot of colder air dives into the Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys. with subfreezing readings in the north and east.
Aloft: Low-amplitude WNW flow was over the Cntrl Plns with an approaching ridge that extended from MT-NM. This ridge will deamplify and broaden as it crests over the tonight. Surface: The cold front that moved thru overnight extended from the GtLakes thru MO into NM at 18Z. This high will gradually slide E into WI tonight and the GtLakes tomorrow. The remnant trof will cross the CWA Sat night. A ridge will follow Sun with WSW-W flow Mon-Wed. Surface: a weak cool front will slide thru Sat associated with the upr trof.
/issued 1106 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/ Drier air continues to move into the region as high pressure builds across the region today.