Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southerly flow ahead of the low pressure is causing moist air from the gulf to spread northward. The low pressure is forecasted to move eastward today across southern KS. Moisture may linger in the form of low clouds around I-70 this afternoon although cold air advection behind the departing low pressure may reinforce the stratus across the area especially in the evening. Lingering stratus into the afternoon would cause cooler temperatures in those locations therefore have tried to account for that in the forecast. Sunday starts out breezy as cooler high pressure continues to push southward over the state. High temps in the 40s are followed by a cooler overnight with lows back down into the 20s.
This will be due to strengthening southwesterly low-level flow between weak low pressure over the Central Plains and a Bermuda high over the Atlantic. Meanwhile cooler lows are expected in the east.
/issued 320 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) Pressure falls east of the Rocky Mountains in eastern CO and western KS has resulted in increased breezy winds across west central Texas out of the south/southwest, warmer temperatures, and increased moisture. Upper level ridging will move in over the area tomorrow ahead of a developing low along the southern California coast.
High pressure aloft will return to the western states for the the upcoming week. The cold front has moved into northern Utah and the associated 700mb baroclinic zone currently extends from near Wendover across to southwest Wyoming. Snow is expected to start mixing in with rain in many northern/central valleys towards the waning side of the precipitation event, so any snowfall in the lower valleys are expected to be minor.
A weak ridge of high pressure which does extend south into the Red River valley at 09z is providing a narrow clear wedge between clouds to the east and west into the nrn RRV. The basic idea is that low pressure will move east into Manitoba. Winds will turn southeast and then southerly during the morning-midday hours and then southwest to west as a trough of low pressure moves through as the low moves east thru Manitoba. Best chance of clearing and warmer temps lies when the winds turn southwest and then west. Also some light precip potential (-sn) in NW MN this evening as trough moves through. Expect a breezy northwest wind 15 to 20 kts behind the trough tonight. A few degrees cooler aloft but with much better chances for sun temperatures will still be a bit above average.
Tonight low level moisture will increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Only minor change in models for the next 48 hours is slightly faster cold frontal timing on Sunday, a trend that began with the 00Z model runs. Over north MS, the front will accompanied by modest midlevel height falls (at best) in advance of an upper low approaching from the desert southwest. Today's 12Z models were in better agreement with the track of the aforementioned upper low.
254 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Latest satellite image depicts the low clouds south of POF to Madisonville line.
On the synoptic scale, a very flat pattern was observed across the CONUS with a broad ridge axis centered across the Great Plains. West- southwest flow extended from well off the southern California coast into Colorado, promoting aggressive downslope conditions across the High Plains. As a northern stream trough axis moves east across the Dakotas on Saturday, a cold front will push south. This will lead to a bit more of a challenging temperature forecast for Saturday, with Hays staying in the cooler air (with respect to what we are seeing today), with highs in the lower 60s.
This will bring increasing gulf moisture and warmer temperatures to the region.
1251 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
Better chances for rain still looks to be on Sunday with the approaching cold front from the Great Lakes trough.
331 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Large high pressure over the Plains states this morning will move east and reach the Middle Atlantic region Saturday afternoon.
Moisture looks to remain quite sparse north of the low level ridge axis, which remains situated from northwest South Dakota into eastern Nebraska as the wave passes through the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side Friday, but given lack of appreciable snow cover, have hedged toward the warmer guidance solutions with highs in the 20s most areas. Gusty conditions continue into Saturday, with a cold front moving through the region in the afternoon and evening.
The cold front should move across the area tonight and into the coastal waters by Friday morning. High pressure will build over the area behind the front. The high pressure area will move east and winds will turn southerly.
With that being said it does appear that snow levels will rise substantially across central Oregon and temperatures will rise above freezing there by Friday evening so the snow and mix may change over to just plain rain especially below 4500 feet.
1141 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Cold front appears to be reaching the Interstate 10/12 corridor at present, several hours ahead of what was earlier expected. The sky was cloud free this evening ahead of the cold front, but some scattered showers are possible tonight as it passes through. Cold front is situated across central Mississippi and central Louisiana near Alexandria and should steady nudge southward overnight. Temperatures tomorrow will be running about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than this afternoon's readings along with low cloudiness and gusty northwesterly winds. High pressure then prevails over the area through Saturday with some frost and light freeze conditions possible in the northernmost fringes of the forecast area Saturday morning before a warming trend onsets later Saturday.
Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northwest SD, with arctic boundary still along the lee of the Rockies. Warmer air aloft will aggressively build over the area on Friday. Temps will not drop much Friday night as clouds build into the area with advancing warm front. Milder air will continue to push into the area for the weekend as arctic boundary pushes north and east into the area as a warm front. A cold front will clip the area on Saturday, keeping the mildest air over northeast WY and the Black Hills area.
1144 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Large, cold, high pressure will build across our area from tonight through Saturday.
304 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 A small potential for flurries this morning, cool this afternoon, then warmer for the weekend, are the highlights of this forecast. Sunshine and light winds should make rather cool temperatures feel a little warmer than the upper 20s or lower 30s highs. Warming really takes hold on Saturday as south then southwest low level flow ahead of low pressure moving east through South Dakota drags warmer airmass into the region.
1152 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a locally flat pattern prevailing across the Plains as a large trough dominates areas from Canada south into the mid-section of the United States leaving our section of the Nation under the influence of a west-northwest flow.
High pressure is currently centered over the Dakotas. the flow will come from the south as it circulates around the backside of the high. As for temperatures we will go below freezing the next two nights possibly even some teens Friday night.
With sunny skies, went a degree or two warmer than the mav guidance.
/issued 218 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Back to reality today behind a strong cold front that moved through overnight. We will start the week well above normal before a cold front slides through midweek and cools temperatures back toward average.
A weak mid-level trough will drop southeast through the region overnight, but appears no more than a few high/mid-level clouds will result. High pressure slides off to the east Saturday with low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains. This low continues to push into the area Saturday night. Also, could see a window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle northeast of I-94 Saturday night as there is some indications in the models for loss of cloud ice combined with lingering lift.
As high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley to end the work week, temperatures will briefly warm again ahead of a weak area of low pressure and associated upper wave. Weak ridging and a slight cooldown will return to end the weekend before we head into the new work week.
Clearing will take place this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds in. Highs today will reach the lower to middle 20s with lows tonight falling into the lower teens. A weak trough will drop through this morning, bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy skies into early afternoon. The clear skies and generally light winds will allow for strong cooling with lows into the lower teens. Have trended slightly cooler, but still held 10 degrees or higher.
1056 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2017 Recent real-time data and near-time computer simulations indicate that the potential for widespread light freezing/frozen precipitation and dense fog have decreased across Pueblo county, therefore have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for Pueblo county. Patchy Freezing Drizzle. Soundings indicate conditions will likely remain saturated for a continuation of fog, flurries and patchy freezing drizzle over parts of the plains this evening, mainly across El Paso, Pueblo and easter Fremont Counties. Don't think there will be the lift or depth to the stratus this time to squeeze out more precip so thinking just stratus this time around, although freezing fog could be a possibility if the fog gets thick enough. Again, the higher amounts would favor the central mountains north of Monarch Pass. May end up being several degrees cooler than that.
247 AM MST Fri Feb 3 2017 The 500 mb ridge will pass over the forecast area this morning then southwest flow aloft on the west side of the ridgeline will open the door to increasing clouds and moisture from the west. The higher passes along Interstate 70 should see lesser amounts and minor impacts.
Therefore, moved the start time to the High Wind Watch to 8pm. A minor reinforcing push of arctic air looks like it will sink down the high plains mainly affecting the northern Panhandle. Changes ensue Friday as the arctic boundary against the mtns erodes eastward as surface pressures fall over the high plains in response to weak impulses moving across in westerly upper flow. Temperatures wil become warmer though will lean towards the cooler side of guidance across the Panhandle given snow cover. The strong winds may spread into the high plains Saturday so this will have to be watched. Mainly dry otherwise except for the higher mtns Friday night and Saturday where moist westerly flow rides up the west-facing slopes creating snow showers.
Weak high pressure with patchy to areas of fog will this morning. A cold front will slide Southeast into SE GA early this afternoon, with a few showers possible. On Saturday the front will be south of the area with strong high pressure centered over NC and VA area at about 1033 mb. Temps will be much cooler than prior days with highs only mid to upper 50s north zones and around 70 south zones.
1216 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Arctic high pressure from central Canada will build toward the region late tonight through Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A cold front has passed through the entire inland portion of the BRO CWFA and most of the adjacent coastal waters per the most recent surface analysis and the current surface observations. As the inverted trough moves onshore and pushes west through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday, the chance of scattered patches of rain will persist. The passage of the aforementioned cold front will hold daytime high and overnight low temperatures at near normal levels for the period.
NW winds, preceding arrival of Canadian high pressure, brought colder temps to E Iowa/NW Illinois today. This Evening and Tonight: High pressure moving into the Plains and Upper Midwest setting up a seasonably cold night in the 10s most locations, with upper single digits in the counties along highway 20.
Otherwise similar, though warmer, quiet weather is anticipated. A weak upper level trough skirting the area to the north will spur surface lee cyclogenesis and strong downsloping winds.
High pressure building east into the Northern Plains, resulting in a clear sky and a steady west-northwest sfc wind. Increasing clouds for Friday with return flow developing and as upper level moisture streams through a flat ridge over the Rockies. Winds may become an issue Saturday as a decent pressure gradient develops in the wake of low pressure pushing east across the Dakotas.
249 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure will move across the Central Plains today on it's way to a position over central Kentucky late tonight. Tonight with the high moving into position over us and with mainly clear skies (passing high cirrus could provide some brief cloud cover), we should have good enough conditions for quick drops in temperatures. Highs will be warmer than today, but likely still a little below normal.
High pressure aloft will continue to result in dry and warm conditions across southeast Arizona through the weekend. High clouds continued to spread across the area late this evening as the ridge of high pressure aloft had shifted farther south today.
Early this evening a cold front was analyzed just north of I-10 across south Louisiana, then arcing southwest along the Texas coast. A cold front stretches from deep South Texas to the East Texas Lake Region and eastward across CenLA to the Carolinas. High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Friday and Saturday.
Most short-term guidance (NAM12/HRRR/HRRRX) suggests these low clouds (2500-4500 ft stratus) will remain quasi-persistent through the overnight hours, which should keep temperatures slightly warmer than the previous forecast. /ISSUED 223 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Early this afternoon, the cold front that passed through our area yesterday is approaching the Texas coast and extends westward through the Rio Grande Valley. This is occurring ahead of a deep closed low off the California/Oregon coast. In the wake of the second wave, veering low level flow should support warmer temperatures beginning in the west Saturday where clouds will clear out during the afternoon.
343 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Very little change in the forecast through Saturday morning as high pressure that was centered across Nebraska early this morning, moves southeast and keeps the Upper Midwest dry. Winds will gradually shift to the southwest, south and southeast as the center of the high moves over the Ohio Valley.
240 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Today will be mostly sunny and dry as a large area of high pressure across the Dakotas moves southeastward and into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper teens to lower 20s. Then, temperatures overnight are likely to hold steady or perhaps rise slowly as clouds increase from southwest to northeast ahead of the next low pressure system.
Cold front has pushed through the offshore waters down into Deep South Texas early this morning. High pressure will continue to build into the region today reinforcing the cooler air mass over South Texas. This reinforcing shot of cooler air has moved into the Victoria Crossroads and extends into the Hill Country at 09Z. Coastal trough will move toward the coast on Saturday. High pressure will continue to build into the marine areas today with northeast winds expected to reach SCA levels this afternoon over the Gulf waters.
132 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure with quiet and cold conditions into the weekend.
This background pattern will be supportive of warmer temperatures with weekend highs generally in the 40s.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to mid 20s. Highs tomorrow will be cooler than today, topping out in the mid to upper 30s. With good radiational cooling under high pressure and clear skies, temperatures Saturday morning will drop into the teens.
343 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Axis of high pressure propagates across the region with return flow setting up overnight, and westerly winds become southerly.
/issued 301 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ A cold front remains located from near Atlanta, Georgia to Natchez, Mississippi. Showers associated with a weak low pressure center that developed along the front continue to impact Northeast Mississippi. Highs will be similar to today with readings in the lower to mid 40s. The high will begin to shift east on Saturday.
as weak cold front and deep moisture move well south of the area. Colder air now working in behind with temps expected to drop to near to well below freezing overnight.
Given very dry air will hedge cooler tonight, but may not be cool enough.
A potential for some showers pushing ashore continues over the next several days as high pressure keeps a generally easterly flow across the area. The pattern aloft stays relatively quiet through Friday as a mid- level trough weakens before pushing across Florida on Friday into Saturday. With broad Atlantic high pressure at the surface and generally zonal flow aloft, the next several days look to be mainly sunny with some clouds and showers pushing in from the Atlantic.
1150 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Plans will move across the Upper Ohio Valley early this weekend and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday night.
358 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure will slowly build into the region through the end of the week.
1107 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cooler air mass has spread into the area today as afternoon temperatures are currently in the 30s. Southerly winds will start to return from west to east Friday night as the high starts to move off to the east.
333 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 A cold front continues to move through the coastal waters this early morning. High pressure over the Northern Plains is building in behind the front, providing a northerly flow and much cooler conditions. Rua A rather chilly day is in store for the forecast area, as high pressure will continue to build down from the plains, with northerly flow and cold air advection. High pressure will then move quickly off to the east on Saturday.
A high pressure ridge will stay over the area today, then a backdoor cold front will drop down from the north tonight and should reach northern sections.
The cloud cover overnight should help to keep lows warmer than the dry afternoon dewpoints would have supported. Will keep low temps ranging from the mid teens N of I-74 to the low 20s south of I-70. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the area Friday night as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal/northwest flow for the weekend.
With dry high pressure over the upper midwest tonight and Friday should see very little in the way of clouds. There is an upper level trough that will be moving through the Arrowhead this evening and across northern WI overnight, but with such a dry air column, not expecting any precipitation nor much in the way of clouds. High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland Friday night, but the next round of precipitation will bring increasing clouds as the night wears on. Low pressure will develop to the lee of the Colorado Rockies Friday night, and then move eastward into the Upper Midwest on Saturday and Saturday night.
1131 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure will continued build into Arkansas tonight and Friday. High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas. Cool conditions will continue tonight and Friday as the high settles over the area.
here are the highlights in order of "most importance": 1) Snow amounts: Kept all areas at least slightly below 1", but nudged most Nebraska zones up to at least half-inch potential if not more (especially west), and added some light accumulation potential under one-half inch to most KS zones as well. Model forecast soundings indicate that as system arrives, it will take time for the low levels to saturate and once the low levels begin to saturate, moisture decreases in the dendritic zone. Amounts within the snow band could reach a half inch to near an inch given the high liquid to snow ratios with the cold temps, while locations outside the band see little if any snow accumulation. Temps will be noticeably warmer, with Saturday seeing roughly a 20 degree jump in temps compared to Friday but with breezy/windy conditions.
Otherwise, high pressure continues to approach the area and will pass by early Saturday allowing for dry weather Friday and Saturday. The next low pressure system passes to the north on Saturday night with light snow, but little if any accumulation is expected. Lows overnight will dip into the lower to middle teens. and highs will only reach the lower to middle 20s on Friday.
1226 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure builds in through Saturday.
254 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure with quiet and cold conditions into the weekend.
Rain associated with a cold front will continue to slide across the northern half of the area this afternoon and then drift southward during the night. The cold front will then accelerate southward Friday afternoon as an upper trough passes by to the northeast. A cold front is currently draped across Central AL this evening and will continue to push slowly southward into tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow, ridge rebuilds from the west, resulting in dry conditions and clearing skies.
1114 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through tomorrow as high pressure currently over the northern Plains moves southeastward into Missouri and Illinois by Friday afternoon.
Models are in general agreement with weak system moving across Nebraska with broad zone of geographically driven lift over the High Plains gradually weakening before it reaches much further east as high pressure moves into the state late tonight. Meanwhile a subtle cold front is progressing southeast across western Wisconsin to southern Minnesota at 20z.
While there could be stratus lowering close to IFR late evening at KJCT and KSOA, the best potential for IFR ceilings (and perhaps MVFR visibilities in fog) will be after midnight Friday night as a warm front moves from south to north. as low level moisture returns from the south and overrides the cold front. /issued 351 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) A weak upper ridge over the southwest CONUS will continue to flatten through tomorrow with the upper flow over the forecast area becoming zonal.
Rains have ended with the passage of a cold front this evening. Early this evening a cold front was analyzed just north of I-10 across south Louisiana, then arcing southwest along the Texas coast. A cold front stretches from deep South Texas to the East Texas Lake Region and eastward across CenLA to the Carolinas. High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Friday and Saturday.
158 AM MST Fri Feb 3 2017 Upper level analysis shows a wave crossing the northern plains, and a ridge building over the western CONUS. Weak upper ridging/nearly zonal flow will move over the region today into the weekend. Highs Saturday will be tricky, as cooler air pushes in from the north behind the trough. With weak upper ridging over the region and southwesterly low- level winds redeveloping, milder air will push back into the area.
Cold Canadian high pressure stretching from MT down through eastern NE and western IA.
Do expect though that at least some light snow will occur, this will have to fight dry air in the low levels, but area soundings do indicate the column should gradually moisten with light snow developing. This is where an inch of snow may accumulate, with locally two or possibly three inches across far northwest Nebraska near the Pine Ridge in Sheridan county. South winds will increase Friday afternoon as high pressure moves east, and lower pressure across the Rockies will set up a fairly tight pressure gradient.
119 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Low pressure will pass to the south tonight and Friday morning. High pressure will build in from the northwest Friday night and will be centered over the area Saturday.