Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A storm system moving through the region will bring a few more showers to the southern Sierra along with the higher elevations of Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties today. Gusty winds will occur ahead of a cold front that will move through the region this afternoon and evening. Much cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend.
Cold front moving across the Idaho/Nevada border region early this morning bringing showers across that region this morning. Lingering light snow showers also expected across the west central mountains of Idaho as the upper trough slides through the state. Otherwise, an upper ridge builds into the region tonight through Saturday bringing clear skies with near normal temperatures.
Low level ridge centered over the area yesterday progged to continue sinking toward the south as a vigorous upper trof evident in water vapor satellite imagery over the PAC NW translates east toward the Plains. Elevated winds will continue tonight, mitigating any risk of fog but likely resulting in considerable stratus which will aid in holding temperatures up into the lower/mid 60s. Gusty southwest winds will near wind advisory criteria across parts of South Central LA on Saturday, with the CDFNT associated with the upper trof progged to cross the area during the afternoon and evening hours from NW to SE.
613 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 All the freezing rain/sleet/snow has exited far NW MN so the winter weather advisory was cancelled at 1130z. Cold front on its march eastward and seeing a good cool down behind it as it moves into the DVL basin. Will maintain the low pop we have going in SE ND into parts of MN. A cold front is moving east into eastern ND. Warmer air ahead of the front as well. Temperatures in this area should be a bit warmer with more 33-34 and thus a bit lesser risk of icing. Cold front will push though and winds turn west to northwest and temperatures will fall some behind it. Saturday a dry but chilly day as high pressure moves southeast across western ND.
552 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front.
This with mid level ridging will allow for rather warm temperatures across the region as maximums could push 80 over the southwest.
Early Saturday morning, winds will become stronger and shift northerly as a cold front moves through the terminals. An interesting mesoscale feature is noted on the H5 and lower fields suggesting the blocking of some of the flow by the Sandias which looks to let loose this afternoon. The polar trough axis then swings into the region tonight into Saturday.
744 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front.
The combination of a strong 850 MB thermal ridge and gusty southwest surface winds will result in afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s this afternoon. A strengthening lee trough will result in a tightening pressure gradient today, with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph by afternoon. Abilene Record High: 86 in 1938 Abilene Forecast High: 86 San Angelo Record High: 84 in 1938 San Angelo Forecast High: 88 A progressive short wave will move east across the Rockies and into the Plains tonight, with an associated cold front entering the northern Big Country towards daybreak Saturday.
High and midlevel clouds will be increasing through today and expecially tonight as a low pressure system approaches.
The associated cold front will move from northern Utah this morning and be across southern Utah by early this evening. High pressure will build in over the weekend with a gradual warming trend. During the afternoon the associated surface cold front combined with an increasingly unstable air mass will bring a burst of precipitation across the CWA this afternoon as it moves southeastward. Strong southwest winds will prevail across southern and east central valleys ahead of the cold front today. In the wake of this 500mb cold trough a strong ridge will build in over the region tonight through this weekend.
510 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 Complicated forecast in the short term for today through tonight as a strong cold front approaches the area from the northwest. Cold front lays along a line from central South Dakota to Newcastle to Riverton to near Evanston this morning.
1100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front.
Mostly clear skies are expected with afternoon high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 70s.
639 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will build across the state today.
1005 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Large high pressure ridge covers the eastern CONUS this morning, with shallow NNE/NE surface-1KM flow averaging 10-15KT.
1029 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
An interesting mesoscale feature is noted on the H5 and lower fields suggesting the blocking of some of the flow by the Sandias which looks to let loose this afternoon. The polar trough axis then swings into the region tonight into Saturday.
425 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba, with trough dipping down into the central plains. Some light spotty precipitation continues to show up on radar over southern portions of the area, as broader area of freezing precipitation has pushed off to the northeast. For today, some light precipitation may continue over southern portions of the area, but the threat for freezing rain and sleet will diminish through the morning as cooler air aloft works in. Temperatures will remain quite chilly to the northeast, warmer to the southwest. Mainly quiet weather is expected tonight with cold temperatures as high pressure settles in. A cooler day is expected on Saturday as high pressure continues to settle through the area.
Starting out this morning in between a 500mb ridge over the Great Lakes and up through Hudson Bay, with a trough across western Canada through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, at 09Z, an area of low pressure was set up across Hyde/Hand/Buffalo Counties. This low will continue to sink southeast, tracking across far southeastern SD by 15Z. It will push a cold front across our area this afternoon. The 500mb trough will be directly overhead 09-12Z Saturday, with northwest flow then being the rule for the rest of the forecast period. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 30s to low 40s, as cooler air filters in on breezy northwest winds of 13-18kts and a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
Otherwise, no significant changes made to the forecast in respect to the weekend and the cold front that should be moving into the northwestern parts of the area by Saturday afternoon and moving through the southern parts by Saturday night.
A gusty southwest wind will decrease this evening as a cold front approaches. Late this evening and mainly overnight, a strong cold front will move across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. Although temperatures will be much cooler Saturday, low afternoon humidity and gusty winds will certainly elevate fire weather conditions.
/issued 526 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ BKN-OVC VFR-IFR CIGS have plagued the terminals early this morning, with the western terminals experiencing the lower criteria /ktyr and klfk/. /issued 244 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ Upper ridge axis stretched from nrn Mexico newd into the Great Lakes region this morning.
A weak warm front is also expected to lift through AR, and possibly help develop the light showers. Better chances of rain will be seen tonight to Saturday, as upper lift moves through the region, and the cold front pushes into AR. / Issued 603 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ Combo of VFR/MVFR cigs wl be noted acrs the FA thru much of the PD as a warm front wl slowly lift acrs AR today/early tngt. Tngt wl be quite mild with breezy S/SW winds ovr AR as low pressure moves closer to the state. By late tngt, the low wl be movg to the N of AR, with a CDFNT trailing back to the SW.
526 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 BKN-OVC VFR-IFR CIGS have plagued the terminals early this morning, with the western terminals experiencing the lower criteria /ktyr and klfk/. /issued 244 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ Upper ridge axis stretched from nrn Mexico newd into the Great Lakes region this morning.
551 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of low pressure extending from swrn Canada to off the coast of Washington and Oregon. Downstream of this feature, a trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, south into the Mid Atlantic states. West of the low, a cold front extended into northeastern Wyoming. A cold front will approach the forecast area this morning and is expected to clear the forecast area by mid afternoon. A windy and cooler day is expected Saturday in the wake of the Friday nights cold front.
Winds will generally be out of the SSW with speeds approaching 20 knots this afternoon ahead of a cold front.
The MVFR CIGS across the area early this morning are still expected to lift to VFR levels by about mid morning as drier air surges north ahead of approaching trough. The winds will diminish tonight as a trough of low pressure moves overhead. We'll see fairly rapid column saturation this afternoon due to steady warm advection and isentropic lift ahead of the approaching trough of low pressure. Forecast confidence is high: Strengthening low pressure is expected to move through central or northern IL tonight, heading northeast into Ontario Saturday. Decent moisture surge with this low, as precipitable water values will be around an inch this evening. Gusty winds are expected on the back side of the low Saturday.
17/12Z TAF CYCLE Combo of VFR/MVFR cigs wl be noted acrs the FA thru much of the PD as a warm front wl slowly lift acrs AR today/early tngt. Tngt wl be quite mild with breezy S/SW winds ovr AR as low pressure moves closer to the state. By late tngt, the low wl be movg to the N of AR, with a CDFNT trailing back to the SW.
646 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
610 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Weak cold front well offshore. High pressure builds back into the area tonight, despite a secondary cold front dropping south into the region. High pressure will control the region through Saturday when the next cold front will approach from the northwest.
Winds will diminish a little bit just before a cold front starts to move through around 08Z Saturday for GUY, 09Z AMA/DHT.
Low pressure over Wyoming today will become better organized and stronger as it slides off the eastern slope of the Rockies and into the central Plains. A deepening upper trof coming in behind the surface reflection will allow the negatively tilted system to continue to strengthen as it crosses the central and eastern United States. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread into the rest of the region Saturday morning, and then become much more widespread in the afternoon as the cold front barrels in. The best chance of strong/severe storms will be in a narrow corridor just ahead of the cold front itself Saturday afternoon. With strong WAA will go warmer than guidance for lows tonight.
832 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast extends over the Florida peninsula with northeast boundary layer flow across the region.
555 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 09z surface analysis had low pressure over eastern SD with initial cold front into east central WY. This initial forcing will continue this morning as cold front exits the CWA to the south. Additional RASN will develop with mainly SN over the higher elevations.
Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures overnight dropped a little bit further in some places than expected. Today, an upper trough will track across the Pacific Northwest and swing across the state of Montana. As this occurs, expect some increase in clouds across the region, continued cool temperatures with the lowering 500mb heights, and perhaps an isolated snow shower over far southern areas. Tonight and Saturday, that trough axis will shift downstream of the CWA as an upper ridge becomes established over the western U. An upper ridge over the western U.
329 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 Complicated forecast in the short term for today through tonight as a strong cold front approaches the area from the northwest. Cold front lays along a line from central South Dakota to Newcastle to Riverton to near Evanston this morning.
Expect moisture to become more showery as the day goes on as high pressure slowly builds into the region.
The main upper level trough will move over the region later this afternoon and should help initiate another round of shower activity across a similar area near the Idaho/Montana border. High pressure will begin to build over the area after the upper level trough exits to the east, shifting the threat for any additional light snow showers nearer to the Canadian border by Saturday morning and then north of the border by Saturday afternoon.
The flow then backs to the northwest through a deep dry mid layer, and then resides under a relatively strong zone flow in the highest layers.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 51 65 40 / 0 0 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 48 66 39 / 0 0 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 62 48 63 39 / 0 0 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 40 63 37 / 0 0 30 70.
As the high continues to quickly build into the region, a broad upper level ridge will cross with plenty of subsidence aloft. Given this pattern, expect very pleasant conditions through the day with temperatures right around climo, mid 50s in the higher terrain in the NE, mid 60s in Atlanta and upper 60s toward south Georgia. This will result in Saturday morning lows being in the low/mid 40s area wide. Localized higher amounts will be possible in the higher elevations of the north Georgia mountains where wind gusts above 40 mph may be possible.
Models still favoring the central mountains for the highest QPF and forecast is still built that way. it should pick up as the upstream cold front approaches. Much cooler conditions move in for Saturday with highs some 15 to 25 degrees cooler. By sunset Saturday a ridge building over the Great Basin will be in controll of the weather over the forecast area.
341 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will shift east across the Northern Rockies and Montana today for cool and unsettled conditions.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Light precipitation is occurring over the west central Wisconsin portion of the forecast area this morning, in response to weak moisture advection north/east of a warm front edging into southwestern Minnesota. So far either light rain or light snow has been observed, but cannot entirely rule out a brief window of light freezing drizzle this morning over Polk/Barron/Rusk/Chippewa counties where surface temps are currently at 32 degrees. Any freezing precipitation would be light and brief, so ice accumulations are not expected.
A strong cold front will move across the region early Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures / widespread 50s / still look on track in the forecast.
532 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front.
Tngt wl be quite mild with breezy S/SW winds ovr AR as low pressure moves closer to the state. By late tngt, the low wl be movg to the N of AR, with a CDFNT trailing back to the SW.
553 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 A high pressure system will provide gradual clearing today. A strong cold front crosses Saturday night.
518 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Return southerly flow will develop today, as high pressure moves away from the region. Tonight, there should be an uptick on convective chances as a warm front surges northeast quickly in the evening. By 12z Saturday, a strong cold front will be just northwest of our CWFA, ahead of a positive mid level s/wv across the Plains.
1009 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure north of the area will make for a rather nice day with seasonable temps and plenty of sunshine. High pressure north of the area today will provide a light onshore flow with good boating conditions.
/Issued 254 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ Unseasonably warm/windy conditions expected today ahead of strong cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight. As mentioned previously, cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight in association with vigorous upper wave moving out of the northern Rockies into the Central Plains.
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 /06Z TAFS/ Cold front and an area of showers and storms continue across the South Plains late this evening. Otherwise, timing of the cold front continues to be on track, with most areas seeing north winds by around sunrise, even across the southern terminals. Cold front across Western Kansas will drop rapidly south overnight and move into the area before morning. An associated cold front will move south across the area late tonight and Saturday morning. Best lift associated with the upper trough will largely remain north of the forecast area but will clip the Big Country overnight. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Ongoing VFR conditions will continue ahead of approaching cold front. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will be later this evening and after midnight as a cold front moves into the region. The Chances for showers and thunderstorms will diminish by Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves east of the area. Even with the cold front moving through Tonight into Saturday, Daytime temperatures will still remain above normal.
An advance cloud shield ahead of the cold front is quickly moving over the region. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Synoptic Setup: A strong upper level trough and strong jet aloft will push across the area tonight with a deep low pressure system aloft moving across Alberta and Saskatchewan overnight tonight. This system will push a cold front across NE MT tonight into early Saturday morning. A strong jet aloft, just at the inversion level and above will produce some strong winds over some of the higher elevation sites, like the Little Rockies in SW Phillips Co. , and that is the reason for the High Wind Warning for the area tonight into Saturday morning.
An area of low pressure over the central Plains is drawing rain up into southern South Dakota this afternoon. The good mixing will lead to warmer temperatures with highs climbing well above normal and topping out in the mid to upper 70s. As temperatures rise, RH will tumble into the lower 20s across central SD.
Otherwise, aforementioned front will slide quickly southeast through Kansas this evening to overnight as the main upper trough moves into the Great Plains.
1033 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Aside from some elevated and weak echoes close to the Lower Keys a few hours ago, convective activity has been less than expected over the past few hours. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the lower 80s. Expect breezy conditions across the Lower Keys overnight. Despite that, analysis supports keeping a higher wind field and an advisory for small craft headlined for all waters west of the seven mile bridge. Intensifying tropical cyclone Nate is resulting in short term downward motion thru at least 0600Z, however, thereafter outer bands could impact either/both terminals, resulting in a short term MVFR/IFR cigs and/or vis, but probability is too low to include in TAF attm.
On Saturday, an upper level trof will swing into the area and interact with the tropical moisture.
Latest 12Z model runs continue to show low level moisture increasing significantly across the forecast area tomorrow ahead of a stalling cold front to our west and Nate over the Gulf.
551 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A cold front will push across the region tonight. Much cooler weather will then persist through the weekend, with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers.
The main axis of heavy rain will be to the south and east of the tropical cyclone track.
A strong H5 jet rounding the trough provides deep layer shear on the scale of 60+ kts. The H5 trough axis quickly pushes into the Great Lakes, leaving western Neb. Trended highs toward the warmer MAV guidance due to downslope flow and decent WAA at H85. Meanwhile, a broad upper level low will be positioned near northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba with modest to strong height falls evolving across western CONUS and south central Canada.
Overnight lows will be warmer than the last few days with low to mid 70s expected. Southeast winds are expected this weekend with high pressure well to our north, and Tropical Storm Nate in the southern Gulf.
A 300 mb jetstreak was located over western Colorado at 12Z and height falls ahead of the mid level trough over the Rockies were in excess of 50 meters at 500 mb.
Latest water vapor shows a mid/upper level trough shifting through western ND this afternoon, with visible imagery and surface observations indicating a cumulus field over south central ND. Attention then turns to a potent cold front which sweeps through Saturday.
to the lower and mid 70s south where sunshine most prevalent. This activity firing up ahead of upper trough over central Colorado. sunny skies and near to above normal high temps that will range in the lower to mid 70s. At the start of the period, an upper trough extends from the northern Plains across the Rockies, placing the region under southwest flow aloft.
1052 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front extending from Western New York, to near Altoona and Baltimore this evening will lift slowly to the north as a warm front late tonight bringing another late taste of summer-like weather for us on Saturday.
Central Alabama remains dry tonight, as low level flow remains out of the east to southeast with high pressure centered well to our northeast.
As for tonight, wind speeds will stay up enough to hold temperatures warmer than the past couple of nights. The surface pressure gradient will tighten up on Saturday, as an area of low pressure moves across southern Canada. A cold front connected with this low will push across the FA on Saturday.
Precipitation has rapidly dissipated since 01Z, presumably in association with subsidence/cold advection on the western periphery of the mid-level trough progressing into central KS. to the lower and mid 70s south where sunshine most prevalent. This activity firing up ahead of upper trough over central Colorado. sunny skies and near to above normal high temps that will range in the lower to mid 70s. At the start of the period, an upper trough extends from the northern Plains across the Rockies, placing the region under southwest flow aloft.
1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 The low to mid level boundary that has produced showers and thunderstorms this morning has pushed south of the area. Will expect additional rainfall amounts of a half an inch to an inch as the low level jet briefly backs in central Nebraska and south central SD before veering to the southwest and taking the higher chances to the south and east of the area. In central SD some fog will be possible where clouds clear as winds will be light and the low levels are fairly moist.
639 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 The 19Z/2 pm surface analysis shows a warm front over northern IL north of I-80 and extended to deepening 1002 mb low pressure over se CO. Areas along and south of I-70 have been dry today and have seen more sunshine and warmer temperatures of 80 to 85. Low pressure to eject ne into central IA by dawn Saturday, keeping better chances of showers over IA/WI and nw IL. Highs Saturday to range from the lower 70s by Galesburg, to the low to mid 80s from I-55 east with warmest readings over southeast IL and the Wabash river valley. 12Z models continue to swing cold front quickly eastward across IL during Saturday afternoon accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms, and mostly east of IL Saturday evening after dark.