Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
334 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A retrograding subtropical ridge, currently centered over E TX/LA early this morning, will continue to muscle its way westward today and eventually anchor itself overhead by Sunday. Today's temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the higher terrain to the low/mid 90s elsewhere. By Sunday the upper ridge will take hold of the region completely, suppressing any convection through the upcoming work week.
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF/4KMWRF ALL SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE VERY SPOTTY/ISOLATED SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
232 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA.
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
233 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA INTO SUNDAY.
630 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.
248 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 WITH THE STG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS TX.
336 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 IT APPEARS THE WET STRETCH OF LATE WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD THIS WAY TODAY AND BECOMES CENTERED NEARBY ON SUNDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE TAKES FULL CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THOUGH THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF AFTER DARK AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTS ITSELF. RANGING FROM THE MID-60S AROUND FRIONA TO LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OUT EAST.
338 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE TO MOVE FARTHER WEST UNDER A COLD FRONT OR AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
/Kelch 06Z TAFS: A slow moving upper low pressure system will continue to move across the region tonight.
408 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY. THE ONLY WRENCH IN THE FORECAST WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
WILL CUT AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY BACK TO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES OF OREGON.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CONUS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE A BIT WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUALLY INCREASING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS WITH ECMWF SHOWING 925/850 MB TEMPS A DEG OR TWO WARMER SUN AFTERNOON VS TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAXES A DEG OR TWO WARMER EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR THUS FAR THIS EVENING FROM RUN TO RUN HAS OVER DEVELOPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. DO EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL TODAY BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES STRONGER SWLY.
333 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DRIFTING WEST AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NW FLOW TO AFFECT THE AREA. A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO S GA AREA WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. THINGS SEEM TO FAVOR MAINLY N GA WITH THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUING.
401 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN RECENT DAYS WILL SURGE WESTWARD INTO THE LONE STAR STATE TODAY.
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE JUDITH GAP/SNOWIES AREA TODAY. BUT ALSO PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THAT UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO CANADA WHILE RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
622 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY. THE ONLY WRENCH IN THE FORECAST WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
249 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE MUCH ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS EVENING. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. WITH 07Z TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE HIGHER POTENTIAL TO BE ACROSS THE EAST. WHERE THE RIDGE MAY NOT BE AS STRONG.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY WILL HELP TO USHER IN A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE WE COULD SEE SOME LATE DATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/OZARKS REGIONS (WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA).
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
300 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A THICKENING OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
314 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE NEAR LOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT. A VERY TRANQUIL PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATE.
With stacked high pressure in place, skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light through tonight. Temperatures will be right around climatological normal for early March with highs peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows tonight in the low-mid 40s.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD VALUES. LIVINGSTON WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE MID STATE AFTER 06/00Z.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MON WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS. AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OVER NRN MEX BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE SE SLOWLY BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF REGION AND WEAKEN. AS THE TROUGH PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU NRN AL AND SRN TN THIS EVENING SHIFTING SWLY WINDS TO THE NW-N.
129 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Upper ridge will give way to next upper trough that moves onto the West Coast early Sunday. As this trough moves east it develops into a cut off low that rolls along the US/Mex border. should lift northward but will keep temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
219 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Very dry air has pushed into the area behind a cold front with RH values in the teens to 20s this afternoon. Winds have been gusting from 15 to 20 mph across mostly the eastern CWA, with lesser speeds in the west as high pressure has built in. Very mild conditions are expected on Sunday night with surface winds continuing to be gusty ahead of the low pressure system.
405 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. THE STORM DOOR IS OPEN AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS VULNERABLE TO SHORT WAVE EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH. AND THE TROUGH ITSELF WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE. WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH NOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OVER THE AREA WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FAVORED RIDGE LOCATIONS. THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS TO AROUND 975 MB OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE NEAR LOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Upper level winds appear to steadily increase tonight so the higher terrain will experience gusty winds. A cold front will swing through the Northern Rockies on Sunday.
348 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A MAINLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE TODAY. A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TOMORROW AND COMMENCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DEPART THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SAID DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES (AT OR MOSTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING).
1157 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Very mild temperatures were observed early this morning across the region, with 2 AM readings in the mid to upper 40s, with a few spots still in the low 50s. Readings should fall a few more degrees before sunrise, settling into the low to mid 40s. Despite the passage of a very weak cold front this morning, temperatures will again be quite pleasant today, with highs in the 60s with light northerly winds. Winds will become easterly and then southeasterly overnight tonight, as high pressure pushes east of the area. Southerly flow and rising heights will help push temperatures into the low 70s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas, despite an increase in mid and high level cloud cover.
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO NW ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN MS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO INDIANA. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER THERE. REGARDLESS HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU NRN AL AND SRN TN THIS EVENING SHIFTING SWLY WINDS TO THE NW-N.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure transitioning eastward across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is shifting eastward across eastern Kansas while a lee side trough of low pressure is beginning to develop across eastern Colorado. Surface winds will increase today from the south/southeast in response to the lee troughing.
349 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 RETURN FLOW WAS WELL UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT THAT HAS SINCE WASHED OUT NEAR I-20.
1104 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WHEN WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. DESPITE A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FABULOUS THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND RIDGING ALOFT.
1119 AM MST SAT MAR 5 2016 LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
1111 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
438 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE INDICATION THAT THIS OCCURS OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT. DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL HEAD AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. TAKEN WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE RESULT OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD BE AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES VERIFYING ON THE HIGHEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN IS THE CASE THIS MORNING.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM LAKE HURON TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO NORTHERN ALABAMA. BUT ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER KEYS.
THE NAM IS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS IN THE MORNING ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH.
346 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. QUIET/DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. BUT POST FROPA WE SHOULD SEE LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST. QUIET/DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS.
CHANGES ON THE WAY WITH COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS DROP SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY START TO INVADE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF. ALONG WITH LEE TROFFING/WESTERLY SFC WINDS. THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWS MAY ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S.
FORECAST MODELS BRING A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF BREAK OCCURRING FROM MID MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SECOND TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE COAST. LATEST LIQUID PRECIPITATION OF UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE LOWER SIERRA SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER REGION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND FORECAST WINDS VALUES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE.
1111 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO POUR STRATUS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. AND A SHOULD ALLOW A SFC WARM FRONT TO FROM NWRN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH EVEN MIXING OF THE COOLER SIDE OF 925 HPA FORECASTS SUGGESTING MAINLY 60S. WILL SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS WELL AS A STOUT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
234 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY. SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS MN WHERE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WAS MOVING IN. BY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/MILD AIR AND NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
WHICH WOULD KEEP MINS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 20S/AROUND 20 DEGREES. BUT ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING TOMORROW. SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER ERN NM AND ERN CO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
Dry conditions will persist through tonight as a weak upper level ridge of high pressure pushes further east across the Central Plains giving way to a zonal flow aloft across the high plains of western Kansas. A weak flow aloft combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep precip out of western Kansas overnight. Significantly warmer temperatures can be expected for lows tonight as a stronger southerly flow persists across the region. The warming trend this weekend will continue into Sunday as a robust south to southwest flow draws much warmer air into the high plains of Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well up into the mid to upper teens(C).
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST AFT 06Z SUN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
324 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARRIVING. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TO BEGIN THE EVENING WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.
322 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Pleasant conditions will continue through Saturday as a ridge continues to build and move eastward of the Rockies. Northerly surface flow will keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s for areas north of I-70 with temps reaching the low to mid 60s for points south. Ahead of this feature, a strong low level jet will develop underneath the ridge axis. With adequate mixing, sustained winds around 20-20mph gusting to 30-35 mph are possible as the low level jet enters the Central Plains, particularly for areas near the MO/KS border.
MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING SHOWERS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW-VFR-MVFR IN THE VALLEYS TO IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT COMES IN SUNDAY MORNING SUPPORTED BY A COLDER AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE INLAND.
107 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
WITH LT SELY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW 50S ARE SEEN FROM JENNINGS TO LAFAYETTE AND ALONG THE COAST.
1111 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHRTWV TROF MOVG INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MRNG THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL SEE H5 HEIGHT RISES OF 100-110 M TODAY AS THE SHRTWV RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DEVELOPS EWD. THE 08Z SFC ANALYSIS INDCD A RIDGE AXIS FM SW NEB INTO ERN SD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 50 EAST TO THE LOWER 60S FAR WEST.
349 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WAS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST. TO THE LOW 50S SOUTHWEST. WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 ISSUED AT 258 CST SAT MAR 5 2016 PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO GREAT LAKES WILL DAMPEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL PLAINS. THE INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL INITIALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER ERN MT.
1237 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING TO JUST A MIX OF FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY.
233 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SE CONUS. A VERY WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE IS PRODUCING SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL ENTER SE GA TNGT. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S COAST TO THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND.
256 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID STATE TODAY WITH THE QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ARE PUSHING PRECIP FURTHER WEST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FOR MID WEEK.
Abundant cloud cover and increasing moisture will result in mild temperatures tonight, with lows mainly in the lower and middle 50s. It will be a little cooler on Sunday, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 70s.