Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We did speed up the arrival of the snow this evening while also slowing down it's departure on Tuesday as this wave will be deepening and taking on a negative tilt trough the day on Tuesday, resulting in snow lingering longer than previously forecast. Kansas City to Kalamazoo, MI is a little too far southeast to pull the higher snow amounts as far northwest as the core of Twin Cities metro.
largely tomorrow evening as a cold front sweeps by. Warm front now beginning to move northward across the mid state.
In 1987, after a high of 65F and low of 56F the previous day (the 1st), the low temperature of 48F at Key West International Airport on the 2nd shattered the cold record for the date. It is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Key West in the month of April (with the next-lowest being 54F in 1891), and the next- latest sub-50F reading ever is 49F on March 04, 1980.
Appears we've had a pre- frontal trough work across the central portions of the forecast area with winds shifting to the WNW. As the cold front rolls through tonight, showers will increase across portions of northwest Colorado and the mountains of west central and southwest Colorado. Very dry air will advect into the region behind the cold front tonight, shutting off any chance of precipitation by the early morning hours on Tuesday. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday as the cooler airmass remains over the region in northwesterly flow.
944 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 An approaching warm front will bring rain back into the region for Tuesday.
IFR/LIFR ceilings will likely persist overnight as low level moisture continues to surge north ahead of next cold front. Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma by mid morning Tuesday, pushing to near a MLC/XNA line around 18Z. Temperatures continue to struggle upward into the lower 40s across much of northeast OK as of 3PM, while low-mid 80s have been observed into northwest Louisiana and in far northwest OK. A few elevated storms may also develop by morning within this regime before the next cold front quickly moves into eastern OK Tuesday morning and through western AR by early afternoon. A Freeze Watch will be issued for all but far southeast OK where freezing temps should be more localized, but these counties may need to be added eventually if later data supports it.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning will drop below freezing across the area.
812 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure over the Southeastern States will weaken Tuesday.
largely tomorrow evening as a cold front sweeps by.
1049 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Impressive jet streak and assocaited sfc cyclone propagating through the region. This shift south is likely the result of a more aggressive cold frontal push this morning, which has biased thermal and momentum fields south. This Evening Through Monday Storm system moving across the northern Plains ahead of upper low over northern Rockies.
634 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A strong upper level low pressure was spinning across Idaho and western Montana this afternoon and will shift southeast onto the Plains late tonight. Will need to monitor the trends and if any of the high resolution models pick up and become more consistent on a small organized band of heavier snow we might need a small warning as winds will likely be gusting to around 35 mph at times. Do expect some falling temperatures through the day as the low pressure moves east.
This Evening Through Monday Storm system moving across the northern Plains ahead of upper low over northern Rockies.
605 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Impressive jet streak and assocaited sfc cyclone propagating through the region. This shift south is likely the result of a more aggressive cold frontal push this morning, which has biased thermal and momentum fields south. This Evening Through Monday Storm system moving across the northern Plains ahead of upper low over northern Rockies.
However, readings in the lower 90s will be common across the lower deserts the remainder of the week. Heights aloft will begin to rebound Tuesday as ridging (albeit not tremendously amplified) builds over the far eastern Pacific basin.
1050 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A strong upper level low pressure was spinning across Idaho and western Montana this afternoon and will shift southeast onto the Plains late tonight. Will need to monitor the trends and if any of the high resolution models pick up and become more consistent on a small organized band of heavier snow we might need a small warning as winds will likely be gusting to around 35 mph at times. Do expect some falling temperatures through the day as the low pressure moves east.
646 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Main challenge in the short term will be temperatures through tomorrow, and resultant potential for freezing drizzle or freezing mist north of the freezing line. While little to no cooling is expected overnight, portions of northern MO may not make it to freezing this evening and could hover there for the overnight period. Precipitation tonight should be mainly southeast of the below-freezing areas, but will still need to monitor the potential for freezing fog or light freezing drizzle as moisture advection continues. A few showers may develop as the low-level jet and isentropic lift increases overnight; the best potential will be across central MO where lift is the strongest. Lingering light rain showers are possible through early morning, then a cold front will sweep any remaining precipitation out of the forecast area on Tuesday.
739 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure over the Southeastern States will weaken Tuesday.
A weak cold front will move through northern Arizona tonight and will stall through central Arizona on Tuesday. The ridge breaks down this weekend as a trough moves into the Sierras and Great Basin. Arizona will be on the southern end of this trough, but there may be a decent sub-tropical tap. Looks like wind and cooler is a good bet, with a decent chance of showers.
1158 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Main challenge in the short term will be temperatures through tomorrow, and resultant potential for freezing drizzle or freezing mist north of the freezing line. While little to no cooling is expected overnight, portions of northern MO may not make it to freezing this evening and could hover there for the overnight period. Precipitation tonight should be mainly southeast of the below-freezing areas, but will still need to monitor the potential for freezing fog or light freezing drizzle as moisture advection continues. A few showers may develop as the low-level jet and isentropic lift increases overnight; the best potential will be across central MO where lift is the strongest. Lingering light rain showers are possible through early morning, then a cold front will sweep any remaining precipitation out of the forecast area on Tuesday.
A weak cold front sliding through the region will bring slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday along with gusty north winds down the Colorado River.
Gusty SW winds expected area wide and a cold front approaches NW AR after 03/18Z with winds gradually shifting more Wly over NW half of the area.
MVFR cigs expected to develop areawide after 06Z and persist into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. /Issued 249 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ Main forecast concerns are shower and thunderstorm potential associated with tomorrow's cold frontal passage, as well as a small window for enhanced fire weather concern behind the front.
Surface winds will shift to northwest with pre-frontal trof between 11z and 15z Monday, with speeds increasing as true cold front arrives between 14z and 19z. North and northeast surface winds behind cold front expected to gust into the 25 to 30 kt range. A cold front is still on schedule to push through the area Monday afternoon which will drop temps tomorrow into the 50s and 60s from the 70s and 80s today.
1027 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Currently - High pressure to our north is responsible for light to gentle northeast to east breezes across the Keys. Mid level ridging is maintaining mid level warm and dry air with a substantial subsidence inversion based above 800 mb. Dew points are in the mid to upper 60s with temperatures falling through the lower and mid 70s. Forecast - High pressure will maintain light to gentle winds across the island chain tonight. Expect mostly clear skies with temperatures settling into the lower 70s. High pressure to our north will brought in gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across Keys waters overnight. The highest winds will be found across the Florida Straits.
544 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Early this afternoon, high pressure was centered over the Ohio Valley region, with low pressure from NE Wyoming to near Denver. For tonight, the high will continue slowly east, allowing for some pressure falls, keeping SSE winds up overnight. A sharp H5 trof currently over the NW U. We will be monitoring the approach of an associated cold front trailing SW from the low. The cold front will move across the region Monday night.
406 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a 1023mb high over the Ohio Valley with the associated ridge axis extending southwest to Louisiana and north central Gulf.
Another mild and pleasant December day in store as a dome of high pressure sits over the region. Temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer now when compared to yesterday near this time, with most observing sites sitting somewhere in the upper 50s to low 60s. Mid to high level clouds will increase this evening, and continue to increase into tomorrow morning ahead of a strong upper level trough and surface cold front. This in turn will create a strong pressure gradient over the lower Ohio Valley, resulting in a very breezy Monday.
807 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure to north of the region will maintain easterly flow tonight, gusting to 10-15 KT along the immediate Atlantic coast. On Monday, with dry air still filtering in, expect another benign weather day with maximum temperatures in the low 80s, a couple degree above seasonal norms.
434 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017 road upper ridging covers the central CONUS, and the next trough to affect the region is pushing numerous clouds into the northern plains. Wintry weather will arrive abruptly tonight as the upper trough crosses the Rockies. A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight, and precipitation (rain changing to snow) will expand from west to east. A secondary wave associated with the upper trough will slide through the area Monday night, bringing another round of upslope snow to the northern Hills, and a reinforcing shot of cold air.
Elsewhere, highs have managed to get more into the low to mid 70s thanks to an earlier start to warming because of the relative lack of fog. So, for tomorrow expect winds to pick up out of the south in advance of the big cold front heading toward the Arklatex and Ozarks. Actually expecting the temperatures to top out a little warmer than today, despite the increased clouds, mainly because the overall air mass will be further warming right ahead of the incoming front.
710 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
957 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 For this update, expanded freezing rain/sleet possibility in the south a bit tomorrow morning. WPC thinks 12z GFS was an outlier with its farther west track toward Fergus Falls/Wadena with the low.
958 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
544 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
546 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure extending across the region from New England will keep dry weather in place tonight through late Monday.
644 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure remains in place through Monday.
Gusty winds will continue into this evening, turning north behind a cold front.
High pressure aloft will gradually strengthen over the region through at least midweek for drier weather. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest during this period for dry weather.
Shower and a few thunderstorms which were numerous and widespread across portions of the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas have really weakened in coverage and intensity as expected and for that reason, have lowered pops back to slight chance/low end chance variety for the remainder of the night. Cigs will be lowering as well to MVFR during the overnight hours through early Monday as low level moisture increases ahead of a cold front. Cigs may further deteriorate to IFR/LIFR toward daybreak with some improvement later in the day as stronger winds help to mix out some of the low level moisture.
Temperatures will support all rain at the onset of the event as highs reached the mid to upper 60s along the Pine Ridge and H85 temps don't fall below 0C until closer to 12z. Regardless, the gusty winds will cause widespread blowing snow across the north (where the higher amounts/greater rates), to a lesser extent drifting (due to accumulations generally under 2 in). Went toward the higher end of guidance for tonight's lows due to expansive cloud cover, strengthening winds, and the coldest air not arriving until daybreak.
619 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 The focus through Monday will be the passage of a strong cold front associated with an potent upper level storm system approaching the area. The upper system will move into Nebraska/South Dakota towards sunrise Monday and cold front will begin making its way into central Nebraska overnight and through most of the forecast area by sunrise. As the pattern shifts with a large upper trough moving into the east CONUS, cooler weather will ensue.
Recent water vapor imagery indicating upper trough pushing east into the northern Rockies with fairly steady plume of cirrus downstream from northern Baja into the Great Lakes. A weaker wave was in the southern stream over central Texas, but cirrus associated with this wave was pushing east, for decent afternoon insolation and breezy south winds downstream of the deepening surface cyclone in northeastern Colorado to allow temps to reach the mid 60s to 70F at 20Z (near record values -- see below). Dewpoints also rising nicely in this flow, the low to mid 50s, though similar values were found south to north Texas. The upstream upper wave rotates northeast Monday with a Pacific front surging east across the area during the morning to early afternoon, then a Canadian cold front follows in the late afternoon and early evening.
Looks like the bulk of the action will be centered around the cold frontal passage including strong wind gusts in the lower elevations and bursts of heavy snow across the northern and central Colorado mountians. The Park and Gore Range still appear to receive the best snow totals from the storm with cold northwest orographics behind the cold front keeping snow going there through tomorrow evening. Seeing some gusts over 45 mph in several locations and this should continue with approach of the front and some clearing in the West as the higher cloud shield shifts southeast. much cooler temperatures will be another piece of this storm and lows by sunrise the next few days will be back to or below normal.
Strong high pressure strengthens on Monday and prevails for the remainder of the week.
Isolated showers over the Atlantic have been moving south/southwest, and as the low level winds veer, there will be a small chance for showers to impact the coast, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Weak frontal boundary draped across central FL and the adjacent Atlantic will dissipate and a high pressure ridge will build to the eastern seaboard.
NE winds will remain elevated along the coast tonight between high pressure wedge axis extending across southern GA and departing low pressure and trough axis offshore of the SE Atlantic coast. Closer to the coast, some lifting and erosion of the low ceilings is possible across Duval by midnight as the drier air settles farther south down the coast.
Other than that, the forecast appears to be on track for fog and patchy freezing fog in the valleys tonight. Showers that will taper off through the day behind the trough is expected to keep ceilings at the primary airfields mostly in the MVFR to local IFR range in showers, and VFR to MVFR outside of showers.
Cigs will be lowering as well to MVFR during the overnight hours through early Monday as low level moisture increases ahead of a cold front. Cigs may further deteriorate to IFR/LIFR toward daybreak with some improvement later in the day as stronger winds help to mix out some of the low level moisture. /issued 330 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ Water vapor imagery continues to shows a dirty ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon, with southwesterly flow aloft. For this reason, temperatures are running similar too or slightly warmer than this time yesterday. The main focus of the forecast continues to be with the approaching cold front.
One will be high pressure centered over the southeast states and the other a complex frontal system over the northern USA.
Highs tomorrow look to be around 10 degrees or so above seasonal normals again, but morning lows tonight and tomorrow night are expected to remain just a few degrees warmer than normal. Upper ridge axis moves over the forecast area tonight and begins quickly flattening tomorrow through tomorrow night as the upper low over the southwestern U.
303 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase tonight as a warm front works north into the forecast area. Warm front located from southern Iowa into central Illinois will continue to work northeast and should push the bulk of this precip out of the area. Severe threat contingent on upstream organization and location of warm front which should lie near our SW areas. Clouds and slightly cooler air will allow for temps to remain in the 60s.
A low pressure system will move slowly northeast out of Arizona today.
622 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night as a stationary front remains to the north.
By early afternoon, the front is expected to drift northward toward I-74 as low pressure progresses along the front from Iowa towards Illinois. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s far north around Galesburg and Lacon. to the lower to middle 80s across the S/SE. Cold front will drop southeastward out of the Northern Plains later today, increasing areal coverage of storms across the Illinois River Valley late this afternoon into the evening. Cold front will settle southward through central Illinois on Thursday, resulting in continued rain chances through the day.
Dew points in the lower 70s and an isothermal layer with a lowering base will support the lower ceilings. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop and move northeast across the Upper Valley tonight, but not expecting much impact for the Lower Valley as southeast winds will remain light to moderate and will help keep the area clear.
/issued 250 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017/ The upper low responsible for the active weather yesterday across portions of the area has continued its northeastward progression, and per latest satellite imagery, is now located over western New Mexico. Height falls associated with the low are expected to keep flow backed across the Edwards Plateau and into the Lower Trans Pecos overnight, which should be enough to push the dryline westward into portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and perhaps the southeastern Permian Basin. Lows tonight will be in the 50s for most of the area, with 40s possible across portions of southeastern New Mexico and higher terrain, and 60s expected across the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.
For Thursday, the theta-e ridge shifts more from the Rio Grande to the central portions of the CWFA, so the chances for showers and possible thunder are a bit better, with the thunder over the northern areas where CIN will be nearly nil.
a well defined upper level low is evident in water vapor imagery across New Mexico this afternoon. As this low continues to lift northeast overnight. with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms across north central Kansas throughout the day as the main upper level low tracks east across Kansas. Despite the forcing with the aforementioned upper level low. A ridge of high pressure is expected to amplify across the plains over the upcoming weekend.
Deep layer ridging is in place over the area. Overnight lows will be mostly in the low 60s.
1249 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows the circulation of a closed low just south southwest of the Four Corners region and a ridge downstream extending from the western Gulf Coast to the Middle Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a short wave trough in the Central High Plains is lifting northeastward wherein large scale forcing for ascent from the wave coupled with low-level warm advection across NEB is helping sustain convection in the region. Three hour precip totals across western NEB as of 3 AM CDT showed the highest reading at KLBF, 0. Upper low will be accelerating eastward across southern KS Thursday.
Confidence remains on the low side on how widespread the activity becomes. Isolated to scattered convection may develop from eastern Kansas into central Missouri this morning within warm air/moisture advection regime as the low level jet veers. The coverage of convection today is expected to remain isolated to scattered as our region remains under the influence of the departing upper level ridging and primary forcing mechanisms located to our north and west. Additional activity will form across the southern Plains in advance of the approaching upper low. Expect a greater coverage of showers and storms area wide Thursday and Thursday night as the upper low lifts northeast across the Plains and a cold front sags southeastward into the Ozarks region.
201 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night as a stationary front remains to the north.
402 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will remain over the Northeast United States tonight through Thursday, as a frontal boundary extends from the Ohio Valley southeast to off the coastal Carolinas.
On Fri, the upper level high pressure will break down as a massive low enters the west coast. Only a small portion comes through with a strong cold front late Fri night or Sat.
A stable environment under a mid/upper level ridge has controled our area today, but the ridge will start to give way tonight. The passage of the mid/upper ridge axis to our east will allow for some increasing moisture aloft through tonight, mainly in northern sections, but any precip should stay north of our area near a front along the OH River. Will bring chance PoPs into SW VA tomorrow afternoon as surface heating will be aided by an upper level trough and a southward drift of the front.
Gradual destabilization is also expected along the cold front sagging south into central Kansas this evening. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows an embedded short wave rounding the base of the main upper level low pressure center. The upper low will move slowly eastward during the day on Thursday along the KS/OK border with a surface front sinking southward across Kansas.
This area is downstream from a large upper low centered over New Mexico, has a healthy amount of low level moisture that remains in place despite the early morning MCS that moved across the area, and has an elevated mixed layer spreading northward from the Permian Basin. That timing seems about right, but with the upper low still the west it seems prudent to hang onto a 20-30 percent chance mention this evening. The upper low is progged to move across the Panhandle on Thursday. The low moving out onto the High Plains will usher a cold front south through the forecast area during the day, setting up a pretty good gradient in the high temperature forecast with lower 70s northwest to upper 80s southeast.
225 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 An amplified upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico northward through the TN and OH valleys will provide subsidence, warmth and dry weather through Thursday. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 60s tonight, with more very warm temperatures on Thursday with highs back into the middle to upper 80s.