Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1017 AM MST Wed Dec 1 2021 Water vapor shows short wave trof over the Upper Midwest embedded in the mean west/northwest flow, with upper high over the southwest CONUS. At the surface, broad trof covers the Northern Plains. With thermal ridge overhead, temps both today and Thursday will be near records, aided in part by downslope low level flow. There is some question as to how warm Thursday will be, dependent on how far south a backdoor cold front will sink.
240 PM EST Wed Dec 1 2021 Mild and breezy conditions will develop tonight into Thursday behind a warm front.
1130 AM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 (The rest of today ) Surface trof extends from northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma this morning.
Expect increasing high clouds today with highs ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. Expansive mid- level ridging over the Southwest will begin building east over the area late tonight. Clouds will decrease through the day on Thursday while higher heights aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in even warmer temperatures.
Strengthening lower-tropospheric warm advection and broad synoptic scale ascent downstream from the trough may be sufficient to support the development of a few light showers late this afternoon, mainly across the northwestern half of the forecast area, and we have included a slight chance POP in the grids to account for this possibility. Otherwise, an overcast layer of cirrostratus clouds preceding the trough will continue to spread across the region early this afternoon, followed by a lower layer of stratus clouds by mid/late afternoon. Once this trough moves off to the east, warm-air advection really kicks up as the High over the Southeast builds back up, re- establishing itself over the region.
For Thursday, there continues to be a small area along the southeast Missouri Foothills/Crawley's Ridge area from southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois where temperatures are likely to overachieve in comparison to surrounding areas.
Through Thursday, northwesterly flow aloft remains with weak ridging building into the region from the west. At the surface, high pressure dominates through the period, leaving surface flow light and variable (even calm at times). With high pressure dominating, a low dewpoint depression, and light to calm winds for much of the area, patchy fog will be possible in the overnight hours tonight and into early Thursday morning. Temperatures will be quite pleasant with highs today reaching the low 70s for most locations, and highs on Thursday mainly in the mid 70s across the region.
Wind continues light except on the highest ridges in the central Idaho mountains, especially the closer to the ID-MT border (Montana front-range wind is expected to gust to 35 to 35 mph over the next couple of days).
131 PM EST Wed Dec 1 2021 Mid-level troughing extending south through the Mississippi River Valley will traverse eastward over the next 24 hours exiting into the western Atlantic by Thursday morning. Mid-level ridging will move eastward over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. On the surface, high pressure will settle in over the southeast U.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies through the end of the work week. Gusty westerly winds will continue across the region tonight through Thursday with the higher gusts being in the higher terrain.
In the upper levels, a trough is over the Northeast and a ridge is over the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure is moving through Ontario and a weak high is over the deep south. Lows will be warmer tonight in the low to mid 40s due to cloud cover and WAA.
The NAM seems too cold, with lows in the upper 30s over southern sections, so will go closer to the NBM guidance, with lows in the low to mid 40s tonight.
The high pressure system will influence southwesterly winds to funnel warm air advection into the Ohio Valley, bringing well above normal temperatures back into the forecast. Current forecast calls for temps comfortably in the mid 60s, which will be around 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
Question becomes how much, if any, of this higher momentum flow can make it to the surface. A handful of high-res models suggest at least pockets of gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with ensemble probabilities highlighting the Buffalo Ridge area being the most favorable. Southwest to northeast oriented thermal gradient sets up again across the immediate area for Thursday with locations east of the Buffalo Ridge perhaps topping out closer to 50 and locations nearing the MO River closer to 70.
1133 AM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 (Today and tonight) Weak ridging aloft will continue to build over the area today, resulting in continued benign weather over the area through tonight. Temperatures today are expected to reach into the low to mid 70s, which is about ten degrees above normal for this time of year.
Given the anomalously warm 850 to 900 mb temperatures and the downslope pattern, opted to go with the warmer 75th percentile NBM for high temperatures (close to the MOS consensus).
A cold front moves through the forecast area Thursday night.
A 586 dm midlevel anticyclone was centered near the Four Corners at midday, resulting in continued dry NW flow aloft over SW KS with embedded scattered cirrus. A fairly quiet pattern will persist into the early part of the weekend as medium range models indicate the flow aloft becoming more zonal across the Western High Plains, while a drier air mass dominates the region in the lower levels. The pattern of above normal temperatures continues Thursday as a deepening lee side trough brings about a more southwesterly downslope flow to western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid/upper teens(C) across the area.
144 PM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 A surface boundary/upper trough will sweep across Middle Tennessee later this afternoon. Look for decreasing cloudiness later tonight and tomorrow as ridging starts to build back into Middle Tennessee.
Narrow upper ridging continues to build overhead this afternoon as a broad 500mb cyclone over Baja shifts southwestward away from expansive upper northwesterly flow overspreading much of the north-central CONUS. A swath of thin upper level moisture being pulled northward around the upper low over Baja may result in more notable high cloudiness tomorrow which may limit our overall warming, but have nevertheless leaned towards the warmer end of guidance given the progged positioning of the building upper ridge axis directly overhead and the anticipated increasing downslope component to the low level flow.
(The rest of today ) Surface trof extends from northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma this morning.
Therefore, it looks like mid 60s will be the highs today over northern areas while southern areas of the CWA into east central Kansas have reached the upper 60s. The warmer temperatures, allow for minimum RH values to dip into the middle 20 percent range again.
232 PM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 Unseasonably warm temperatures will be in store this afternoon in the south Red River Valley, with cooler temperatures further north where snow fell (but still warm enough to facilitate fast melting). Cooler temperatures will be in store for tomorrow, although still much warmer than normal for this time of year. Freezing rain is a possibility depending on strength of the warm layer aloft, although it doesn't appear it will be the predominant precipitation type.
Anomalous ridging with downslope flow will usher in well above average temperatures during the short term period.
Even warmer air is on tap for Thursday when highs are expected to reach well into the 60s. An upper trough is centered near St Louis late this morning and will continue to dig ESE. Decent pressure gradient overnight will keep the boundary layer well mixed in southwest winds, so lows well above normal in the low to mid 40s - more typical of early December highs. 850 mb temps peak at +10-12C on Thursday, making for an unseasonably warm day in the low to mid 60s.
Rain will continue through the rest of the morning and is still expected to come to an end late this afternoon as the upper trough pushes off to the east. Passage of the upper trough axis and onset of isentropic downglide this afternoon will bring an end to any lingering precipitation by 00Z, with dry weather expected through the remainder of the short term.
1129 AM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 High pressure overhead will once again result in clear skies and light onshore winds today area-wide.
Strong winds are expected across the Cascade ridges through today. Even Pullman has reached 61F and I would imagine Spokane should reach 59F or slightly warmer if this trend continues. Winds in excess of 40kts remain at elevations of 3000 feet and higher and will continue to create turbulent flow over the mountain ridges. There is a small threat for upslope stratus developing between Pullman and Spokane overnight given the flow pattern but given the low confidence, did not include restrictions in the 18z TAF issuance.
314 PM EST Wed Dec 1 2021 A crossing upper disturbance will spread light rain over the region through this evening with focus along a warm front which will keep overnight temperature mild. More showers and windy conditions can be expected with a Thursday cold front. Low pressure centered in the TN Valley and its attendant warm front are propagating newd this evening. Rain will end with the passage of the mid level trough axis later this evening, but relatively mild temperature can be expected until the passage of a Thursday cold front.
140 PM MST Wed Dec 1 2021 High pressure continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and extending into the Four Corners, with a deepening low pressure system digging to the southeast from the central Canadian border. Areas along the wind prone corridors have continued to meet criteria resulting in slight modification to the short term forecast with extensions in the High Wind Warnings through 00Z. The significant warmup tomorrow is on track with the broad upper level ridging pattern flattening out, resulting in the flow aloft decreasing and becoming more westerly. High temperatures on Thursday remain difficult to determine, with most models trying to push these values into the low to mid-70s across the domain.
A beautiful afternoon ongoing across the area today as highs have climbed into the lower to mid 60s and winds have remained fairly light. Temperatures will climb even higher tomorrow as a 850 mb ridge builds over the region.
1014 AM MST Wed Dec 1 2021 Low temperatures so far today have been running a few degrees warmer than yesterday, as expected. Looking at today, the area of high pressure that has been situated just to the west will shift slightly eastward as several disturbances move onshore of the Pacific Northwest coast. This will have little impact on our sensible weather though, as conditions will remain warmer than average and overall dry. An elongated lobe of high pressure will sustain its position aloft, maintaining consistent weather into the weekend, with little fluctuation in high/low temperatures expected.
The unseasonably warm temps will be ubiquitous across the lower desert today with most areas poised to see at least 80 degrees. The unseasonably warm temperatures of late are a result of a persistent broad ridge that has been parked over the western CONUS. A minor low pressure circulation remains mostly fixed off the Baja California coast but this disturbance will do little to impact our weather other than produce a few waves of upper level clouds.
1227 PM EST Wed Dec 1 2021 Rain chances return late today with a crossing warm front.
A cold front is expected to pass through the Upper Midwest late tonight. Forecast soundings reveal layer(s) of mid-level saturation within the zone of lift but the low-levels are rather dry giving questions on whether precip reaches the surface. The DGZ is semi-saturated but low- level to surface T and Tw hover near freezing.
955 AM MST Wed Dec 1 2021 The short term focus is on the near-record and record high temperatures forecast to be in the lower to middle 70s across the area today and Thursday. Northwest flow aloft flattens Thursday and Thursday night with a lee trough deepening along the Front Range in response to the more westerly flow streaming across the Rockies.
A northwest flow aloft will continue today as a broad area of high pressure remains entrenched across the southwest.
No, wait, it's actually December First! High pressure continues to bring temperatures that are about the normals for the beginning of November. Gradient remains tighter between low pressure to the northeast and sfc ridging to the west. The forecast area will remain sandwiched between the potent jetstream sitting north of the area and the intense dome of high pressure that's sitting over the Desert Southwest.
Through Thursday, northwesterly flow aloft remains with weak ridging building into the region from the west. At the surface, high pressure dominates through the period, leaving surface flow light and variable (even calm at times). With high pressure dominating, a low dewpoint depression, and light to calm winds for much of the area, patchy fog will be possible in the overnight hours tonight and into early Thursday morning.
Areas of dense fog likely across the coastal lakes, bays, and nearshore coastal waters as well with lower to mid 60s dewpoints riding over water temperatures in the lower 60s.
A surface boundary/upper trough will sweep across Middle Tennessee later this afternoon. Look for decreasing cloudiness later tonight and tomorrow as ridging starts to build back into Middle Tennessee.
Today and Tomorrow: GOES water vapor imagery continues to show northwesterly flow over the central CONUS along with ridging over the west and troughing over the east. An 850 mb thermal ridge is currently centered over the Rocky Mountain front range and is aided by the northwesterly flow in adiabatic warming with the lee side downslope flow. By Thursday afternoon, the main low-level thermal ridge will be centered over much of Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas and the lack of expected cloud cover will help surface temperatures soar. NAEFS and EPS ensemble situational awareness tables are showing the highest or the 99.
For the Florida Keys, a weak area of high pressure centered near Georgia continues to dictate the sensible weather. The associated ridge continues to result in large-scale subsidence.
Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast south of Cape Canaveral along the coast where temperatures will drop into the mid 50s to low 60s. Mid/upper level ridge will build eastward over the Gulf during the day. Light northwest flow can be expected with temperatures in the low-to-upper 70s for highs.
High pressure keeps Nevada mild and dry for the next few days, with near record warmth across central part of the state.
Have continued the upwards trend on current model guidance on highs for tomorrow ending with most locations hitting the low to mid 70s.
Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected with a Thursday cold front. Damp and relatively mild conditions can be expected overnight, and until the passage of a Thursday cold front. More developed low pressure will drag a cold front across the Upr OH Valley on Thursday.
429 PM MST Wed Dec 1 2021 High pressure continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and extending into the Four Corners, with a deepening low pressure system digging to the southeast from the central Canadian border. Areas along the wind prone corridors have continued to meet criteria resulting in slight modification to the short term forecast with extensions in the High Wind Warnings through 00Z. The significant warmup tomorrow is on track with the broad upper level ridging pattern flattening out, resulting in the flow aloft decreasing and becoming more westerly. High temperatures on Thursday remain difficult to determine, with most models trying to push these values into the low to mid-70s across the domain.
Current forecast lows are near or just above freezing for most areas. Although, if we were to see any clearing spots we could sneak down below freezing or even into the upper 20s, so would not be surprised that any areas seeing light rainfall tonight may experience slick roadways in the morning. Will also be watching a cold front slide south through the CWA tonight. A mean ridge will exist over the western CONUS for most of the period, but energy (clippers) are expected to ride through the ridge and dive southeast across the Northern Plains.
730 PM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 /Updated at 0720 PM CST Wed Dec 01 2021/ /Showers clip NE Alabama this evening; fair weather beyond/ At 01:30z/7:30p, water vapor imagery and H5 analysis showed a trough axis moving through the region. As the trough moves eastward tonight, we will start to get involved within a broadening H5 ridge centered toward our west. The air mass will cool into the 40s tonight before warming into the lower 70s for much of the region Thursday afternoon.
847 PM EST Wed Dec 1 2021 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Thursday as an upper trough moves over the state. Drier air will then settle over the area as the high center moves over the state for the end of the week and gradually east through the weekend. High pressure will remain over the coastal waters through the weekend with no headlines expected.
expect mostly sunny skies and max temperatures well above normal again and likely 1 to 2 degrees warmer than what we are seeing today.
High pressure will bring dry conditions through the coming weekend.
546 PM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 Unseasonably warm temperatures will be in store this afternoon in the south Red River Valley, with cooler temperatures further north where snow fell (but still warm enough to facilitate fast melting). Cooler temperatures will be in store for tomorrow, although still much warmer than normal for this time of year. Freezing rain is a possibility depending on strength of the warm layer aloft, although it doesn't appear it will be the predominant precipitation type.
The ridge over the west is quite strong with 500 mb geopotential heights from the Great Basin into the Central Rockies in the 99th percentile of climatology.
635 PM EST Wed Dec 1 2021 Mild and breezy conditions will develop tonight into Thursday behind a warm front.
The highest odds for fog development will be across parts of south MS and northeast LA. A warmer weather pattern will continue in the near term with moisture on the increase.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 69 44 71 48 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 66 44 69 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 66 43 67 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 62 41 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 0.
The highlights will continue. The one caveat to this will be the cold front front coming through in the late afternoon. Reimer Model clusters start out in fairly good agreement, then solutions began to vary with handling of trough early in the work week.
The winds aloft will be diminishing, so the ridgetop and east slope winds we're having now will subside this evening. And since most places did eventually break their inversions today, tomorrow's highs will likely be similar or a couple degrees warmer than today.
Only other change was to bump temperatures up a little for Thursday, so highs are at least as warm as today or a couple degree warmer. The winds aloft will be diminishing, so the ridgetop and east slope winds we're having now will subside this evening. And since most places did eventually break their inversions today, tomorrow's highs will likely be similar or a couple degrees warmer than today.
a warmer weather pattern will continue in the near term with moisture on the increase.
High pressure will remain in place through the remainder of the week, bringing above average temperatures and valley haze (primarily across the northern Utah valleys).
Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 40s for most places.
Have gone ahead and cancelled the eastern extent of the High Wind Warnings and continued the warnings for the western foothills overnight, where winds are still gusting to 60 mph or higher. The highlights will continue. The one caveat to this will be the cold front front coming through in the late afternoon. Reimer Model clusters start out in fairly good agreement, then solutions began to vary with handling of trough early in the work week.
The high resolution models continue to advertise areas of dense fog late tonight into Thursday morning, but there remains some disagreement with the exact locations of where the areas of dense will occur. Upper ridging will build over the lower Mississippi River region through Thursday in the wake of the upper trough moving eastward over the western Atlantic. This ridge will shift eastward over lower southeast states on Friday, but become more flattened with time. At the surface, high pressure dominates through the period, leaving surface flow light and variable (even calm at times).
This is being driven by an upper level ridge currently residing over the Rocky Mountains and placing our region under downslope winds. Tomorrow won't be nearly as warm, but still well above average out ahead of a cold front that will progress through the area during the afternoon. This weekend looks to be cooler behind the front, but still above normal with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
300 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Scattered showers and windy conditions can be expected today with a cold front.
Jaja A cold front associated with a low pressure system in far eastern Canada will stall in our northern CWA Friday. Locations north of I-70 will peak in the low to mid 60s, and locations south will reach the upper 60s to low 70s.
High pressure will bring dry conditions through the coming weekend. High pressure continues to bring warm and dry conditions to the area.
All silliness aside, early this morning, surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the central gulf coast region. High moisture near the ground and a decent inversion has allowed fog to form in most areas, excluding the higher elevations of the Ozarks and Ouachitas. A disturbance will move around the periphery of the gulf ridge and interact with the approaching boundary, with rain chances increasing by the end of the period.
1233 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021 Mild and breezy conditions will develop tonight into Thursday behind a warm front.
1008 PM MST Wed Dec 1 2021 High pressure continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and extending into the Four Corners, with a deepening low pressure system digging to the southeast from the central Canadian border. Areas along the wind prone corridors have continued to meet criteria resulting in slight modification to the short term forecast with extensions in the High Wind Warnings through 00Z. The significant warmup tomorrow is on track with the broad upper level ridging pattern flattening out, resulting in the flow aloft decreasing and becoming more westerly. High temperatures on Thursday remain difficult to determine, with most models trying to push these values into the low to mid-70s across the domain.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 69 44 71 48 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 66 44 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 66 43 67 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 62 41 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 0.
Thursday night a cold front moves through the area bringing an end to our well above normal temperatures. The better chance for the higher gusts looks to remain over east Colorado where the CAA is a bit stronger which will help the stronger gusts mix down, despite the early morning frontal passage. Friday, will be cooler than the previous days but still remain above normal. Winds will be breezy post cold frontal passage and last through the good majority of the day with gusts of 30-35 knots possible.