Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Precipitation diminishing this evening as a low pressure system exits the area. Weak high pressure will bring dry weather Wednesday.
High pressure should return late tonight and Wednesday supporting a generally dry period with some patchy fog possible in the morning.
402 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move off the New England coast overnight. A slow moving cold front will move slowly east from the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will bring rain showers to the north country late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
250 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A busy weather day today with a low pressure system screaming east through central MN. The tough part of the forecast is whether or not the low clouds hang around as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This next system will lift northeast out of Colorado with the warm front advancing through much of Iowa.
150 PM PDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland across California tonight and Wednesday bringing gusty afternoon and evening winds to the mountains and deserts.
This will effectively lift the old front north as a warm front, while a dry line develops southward from the low. Models indicate the warm front will make it as far north as southwest Nebraska after midnight, which is where any elevated thunderstorm may develop. Might see some fog develop along and north of the warm front as well with moist upslope low levels.
Plenty of low clouds have wrapped in behind the departing low pressure system over the past few hours. Feel this, along with the coolish 925/850mb temps will act to keep highs a few degrees cooler than anticipated. High pressure nosing down out of Canada will provide for weak cold and dry air advection today, and generally temperatures will be around climo. There are actually two distinct waves, embedded within zonal flow, and result in two weak low pressure centers that eventually consolidate across Nebraska. Profiles during that time are also just barely above melting, with temperatures in the lowest 5kft ranging between +0 and +2C.
Water vapor loop shows our upper low that brought up to 1 and even 2 inches of rain to portions of the central and southern CWA exiting off to the east. With light winds and recent rainfall, the low level boundary layer should have plenty of moisture. There could be some brief clearing between the low level clouds dissipating and the higher clouds coming in, with some fog formation not completely out of the question. As for temperatures, with some breaks in the clouds think the far northern tier could see readings drop below freezing overnight, while the more moist south should stay in the upper 30s. Highs tomorrow will be dampened by cloud cover, but should be a few degrees warmer than today in the low to mid 50s.
149 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Aviation Fair weather will continue through the afternoon then showers will arrive this evening and tonight along a cold front.
324 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Weather features as of Tuesday afternoon include a cold frontal boundary extending from low pressure across Minnesota through South Dakota.
Issued by National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX 324 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A few showers continue to form in CU field streets this afternoon, limited in scale and range by the distance form the upper trough across east Texas. High temperatures tomorrow will again be nearly 5 degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s. Over the weekend, models continue to indicate midlevel trough sweeping into the southeastern US, dragging through a late season cold front.
359 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move off the New England coast overnight. A slow moving cold front will move slowly east from the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will bring rain showers to the north country late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
High pressure will build over the area through early Wednesday.
Under partly cloudy skies and a light southerly wind, we should warm into the low to mid 80s Wednesday afternoon.
154 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure in the Great Lakes will move east today and return flow will set up in the Ohio Valley.
411 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will move east of our region tonight.
318 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A rainy morning for the Lower Keys has given place to a cloudy afternoon, joining the rest of the Keys that only experienced light to no rain late this morning to early afternoon. A high pressure will sit to the east of north Florida tonight.
523 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A weak cold front across along the NC and SC border will slowly move southward today and stall over the southern Midlands through Wednesday. Wednesday night the front will weaken and return northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
Gusty south winds will also gust over 20 KTS at times at KSJT and KABI, beginning mid morning Wednesday as night time inversion breaks and lee trough strengthens. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail as upper ridging builds over the area from the west. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 80s, close to seasonal normals. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the lower 60s, around 10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals.
201 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will move east of our region tonight.
Somewhat progressive and nearly zonal flow pattern remains in place across the CONUS, downstream from a large scale trough/upper low in the eastern Pacific. with a cold front back into the central plains. Cold front swings through late overnight/early Wednesday morning and there may be a brief window of low stratus right in behind the front as slightly cooler airmass spreads into the region. Low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night, along the warm front As the low moves into the state, the rain will continue from the low level jet forcing the warm, moist air over the warm front along the M-55 corridor. By 00z/Fri it looks like the low will be crossing Upper Michigan, and the Dry air in the 700-500 mb layer level will begin to diminish the moisture overnight.
An upper low and trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will continue to provide a southwest flow aloft across our forecast area this evening through Wednesday. High pressure ridging will begin to build once again during the afternoon and overnight Wednesday. This will be short-lived as the upper low and trough off the Pacific Coast move onshore across the Great Basin area.
Expect SHRA/TSRA to initiate through 1900 UTC across W parts of the forecast area, where MLCAPE values are greatest and convective inhibition is the lowest. Then an upper low located at about 26. This dry surge of air looks to hang on through the work week as a stronger upper low moves east into the central gulf.
328 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 An upper level high pressure ridge will pass overhead tonight with mostly thin cirrus. Fog and stratus seems most plausible again over the Rolling Plains in-line with short-range solutions, but also not impossible again over the eastern and central parts of the High Plains, though only in a very thin layer near the ground. On Wednesday, an upper level trough will eject from the Rockies to our north but will flatten and increase mid level flow just a bit.
240 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A weak cold front across along the NC and SC border will slowly move southward today and stall over the southern Midlands through Wednesday. Wednesday night the front will weaken and return northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
1155 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Updated Aviation Latest surface analysis shows a warm front extending SE from southern Alberta through northern Montana. As far as this afternoon goes, the low/mid levels are fairly dry right now which should generally inhibit shower/thunderstorm development initially. A cold front will cross the area from west to east this evening as well.
Main challenge is precip amounts and impacts as a deep closed low develops over the southern Plains tonight and moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. Main precip shield is already well developed and working its way into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a warm advection wing lifting into the I-70 corridor in Illinois and Indiana, but not without producing some light rain showers across our northernmost counties in southern Indiana. Expect the evening to start off dry, but precip will break out late in the evening west of I-65 as the low-level jet starts to crank up. Likely/categorical POPs will hold through Thursday night, but lower QPF as we get cooler and more stable. For now will keep POPs after midnight in the high chance range, but if the NAM solution verifies that would increase again in southern Indiana.
Analysis of the NAM/GFS model soundings over the Arrowhead region shows some drier air progged in the low-levels, so precipitation may be hard to come by. High temperatures Friday should range from the upper 50s and lower 60s east to the lower 70s over the west.
413 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Cool and dry weather is in store for Southeast Texas today as an upper low pressure trough moves over MS valley. The upper trough will move east into the mid Atlantic Region early this weekend as an upper ridge moves over Texas. During the weekend another upper trough will dig into the West Coast with an upper low forming over the lower Rockies by the first of the new week. Temperatures will be slow to warm today and Friday as the long wave upper low slowly moves eastward.
Cold 500 mb trough axis over NE Colorado at midday will swing through SW KS late this afternoon and early evening. North winds will ramp up late this afternoon and early evening as the trough axis passes, gusting 30-35 mph at times. Sunny and warmer. Quiet weather with few if any clouds, as SW KS is sandwiched between a strong cutoff low near Memphis and a strong ridge near Phoenix.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to overspread the state with ample upper lift as a result of DPVA with the digging trough and right- entrance divergence aloft. As the system moved just a bit faster than initially expected, the associated warm front has been unable to make it into Arkansas, resulting in virtually non-existent surface instability. As the deepening trough reaches the Mid- South region, the upper low is expected to cut off from the main flow. Cloud cover will gradually decrease west to east on Thursday as drier air begins to filter into the low levels. Areas which receive insolation (probably the west), by mid day, will likely get into the low to mid 60s.
Windy And Cool With Light Rain Slowly Exiting The Area Later The slow moving area of low pressure was continuing light to moderate rain across the eastern potions of the Missouri Ozarks this morning. This will be the trend as we head through the the day today as the low track slowly to the east it will pull the lingering rain with it. Surface winds will be breezy out of the north to northwest today as the low moves to the east. Upper level ridging will move over the plains and allow for sunny skies, warming temperatures and light winds.
though proximity of the low/trof later this afternoon could result in some scattered thunder mainly S of I-70.
An approaching cold front that will push through the peninsula will bring showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Models show a deepening upper trough that closes off over the mid Mississippi Valley area with a cold front trailing across the Florida panhandle this morning.
158 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017 A strong ridge will move over the area today and tonight with the ridgeline passing east of the area around sunset Friday. As the ridgeline passes overhead Friday winds aloft will shift to to the southwest. Models were similar in driving the high pressure ridge farther east Friday night in response to a deepening, eastward propagating low pressure system moving ashore over the West Coast.
These will consolidate as deepening closed low shifts slowly eastward today. In its wake, mean north-northwesterly flow will result in dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures across our area. Forecast sounding support deep enough mixing for gusts of 30-35 mph during the afternoon across eastern portions of the area where height gradient is tighter and winds aloft stronger in closer proximity to the closed low.
As the upper low slowly pivots across the area through this evening, abundant low cloudiness will persist today and across much of the area through the night. Areas of drizzle and isolated showers will remain possible overnight, mainly in closer proximity to the upper low across northern zones.
This feature will track northeast and drag a cold front across the mid state this afternoon. Forcing will increase in the afternoon with the linear omega fields matching up reasonably well with the higher shear and instability levels. Moving on, the associated upper level low will allow shower activity to persist within the colder post frontal sector.
1128 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 Quiet through much of the short term period with a dramatic warming trend as the ridge builds in.
Current forecast is near guidance today and a little cooler tonight which looks good.
400 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Northeast winds through Guadalupe Pass has diminished below High Wind criteria therefore the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire.
436 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Ohio Valley bringing rain to the region today and Friday.
Plenty of sun tomorrow as ridging aloft builds into the area. Kept high temperatures about the same to slightly cooler based on the latest data. The upper level pattern has stayed fairly consistent the last few days in regards to a ridge moving over the region through the weekend. Thursday night the ridge is moving into the region from the west and fully engulfs the CWA by Friday.
/issued 107 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ Cold front currently heading into the Big Bend with gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures behind it.
631 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Ohio Valley bringing rain to the region today and Friday.
Better chance for strong to severe convection later in the afternoon through the evening as the surface cold front pushes through. Upper low settles into the southeastern U. Right now it appears that the atmosphere will remain too stable for thunder as the showers spread back into the state late tonight and Friday, but plenty of cold air in the mid-levels associated with the upper low will merit some small possibility that the shallow convection may produce some small hail or graupel and even a flash or two of lightning. 20 A deep closed upper low sits over the TN Valley region at the beginning of the period.
After the storms dissipate, we should have a quiet night lead into a quiet weekend weather-wise as a ridge builds across the region. Surface flow will return to the south to southeast and combined with the building heights under the ridge will bump high temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s for the Caprock and upper 80s to some lower 90s for the Rolling Plains.
Strong upper ridge will support dry weather and warmer temperatures today - the warmest so far this year. The ridge will shift to the east tonight as a cold front approaches from the PacNW. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong - capable of producing gusty winds - due to strong winds aloft and drier air in the low levels. The cold front is expected to swing through portions of SE Oregon late Friday afternoon, including Baker City and Burns. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees lower near the cold front, with little change in SW Idaho as highs there will be in the 70s to lower 80s.
Upper level high pressure will dominate the pattern through the short term period, with dry conditions expected each day.
206 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 The 500mb weather pattern shows a high amplitude ridge set up across the western third of the nation and Canada, with a trough across the eastern half of the nation.
554 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: MVFR ceilings are spreading across the area behind a cold front this morning. As the upper low slowly pivots across the area through this evening, abundant low cloudiness will persist today and across much of the area through the night. Areas of drizzle and isolated showers will remain possible overnight, mainly in closer proximity to the upper low across northern zones.
316 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper high circulating over central Nevada, with the associated ridge axis north through Alberta, Canada. Winds bounded within the lowest afternoon humidities only around 5kt/6mph, so no fire weather concerns.
642 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend.
A upper level positive tilted trough continues to dig equatorward across northeast Texas. Some of the high res sounding profiles does show a chance of some patchy fog early tomorrow morning as crossover temperatures could be exceeded. Continuing through the remainder of the work week into the weekend, an upper level ridge will build across the region bringing tranquil weather conditions.
406 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. Light rain will continue to move northeastward over Ohio, in an area of isentropic lift, ahead of the approaching low pressure system this morning.
254 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 High pressure will slide off the east coast today. A storm system will track into the Ohio Valley this evening, bringing rain and cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend. Before the night is through, many locations will bottom out in the lower to middle-30s, with patchy frost forming. High pressure will slide off the New England coast today. A stacked low pressure storm system will meander into TN/KY this evening, spreading rain showers into our region overnight. Light rain showers will continue Friday evening as the low rotates northward to the NY/PA border.
400 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Upper level ridge axis over the western states will move to the western Dakotas by Sat. Ridge amplifies as it moves east. Upper level jet rides around the periphery of the ridge. The forecast area stays on the east side of the ridge under north/northwest flow aloft. Water vapor loop indicated a double ridge axis. The other ridge axis was over the Pacific Northwest. Short wave will send a back door cold front into the area late Fri into Sat.
For the rest of the night, the forecast looks on track with winds beginning to increase after midnight ahead of the cold front that is forecast to arrive late Thursday. Winds and seas will begin to increase after midnight tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions expected north of Tarpon Springs.
The main player in the short term will be the upper level low currently spinning over the ARKLATEX.
Upper level low pressure is clearly visible over north central Arkansas at this time while a sprawling area of upper level ridging is over the western United States. Upper low expected to continue to cut off from the prevailing flow with this feature taking a good part of the day to finally lift out. Moisture will continue to wrap around the upper low for a continuing chance of showers over mainly central and especially northeast to eastern sections of the CWA. Temperatures will be warmer over the west as more sunshine is expected. The aforementioned Pacific trof will push the western ridge in our direction and come Friday, much drier air will overspread the region.
The trend also shows little in the way of t-storm activity for Friday across Central WA as cooler maritime air spills in. /sb 06Z TAFS: High pressure strengthening over the region will promote clear skies through 18z. The environment will become increasingly warmer and more instability with an increasing risk for t-storms along the spine of the WA/OR Cascades. A cold front slides in after 03z delivering the forcing and increased risk for showers and t-storms through the overnight periods.
With thermal trough passing over the region this evening, area of rain will expected to continue a south and southeast progression across the region with slow weakening. After this system moves by, we will primarily be under the influence of the large ridge currently over the Rockies that will only slowly move toward the Plains.
Cold front and its associated convection has moved south of the terminals with gusty northerly winds in its wake. Cold front should continue to pick up speed and move through the area by 06Z. Cold front will be a little slower to move into the region this evening. Front was located near a College Station to San Marcos to Del Rio line with a pre-frontal trough located from Conroe to Cotulla 23Z. Expect the cold front will reach VCT around 02Z, and ALI/CRP/LRD around 03Z. Concerned that pre-frontal trough will diminish available instability over the region before the low level forcing from the cold front needed to overcome convective inhibition arrives.
As low pressure lifts northeast across AR this evening, rain and rain showers will continue to spread northward across the CWA. Heaviest rainfall should be when the low is southwest of the area and based on the models, it appears that will occur during the overnight hours. The low pressure area associated with the ongoing precip will still be southeast of the area Thursday night and then will weaken and lift east-northeast away from the area.
144 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 High pressure with light winds early in the TAF period and VFR conditions. a cold front approaches from the west.
232 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. Light rain will continue to move northeastward over Ohio, in an area of isentropic lift, ahead of the approaching low pressure system this morning. In addition, adjustments to temperature through this morning were to keep some areas warmer, based on insolation from incoming clouds.
305 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017 We're looking at a change in the pattern for the next few days as a high amplitude ridge builds overhead through the early part of the weekend.
305 AM PDT Thu May 4 2017 Strong high pressure will bring another very warm day to the region today.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Cold front and associated line of thunderstorms have pushed across the CWA this morning bringing moderate to strong northerly winds.
252 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 High pressure will slide off the east coast today. A storm system will track into the Ohio Valley this evening, bringing rain and cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend. Before the night is through, many locations will bottom out in the lower to middle-30s, with patchy frost forming. High pressure will slide off the New England coast today. A stacked low pressure storm system will meander into TN/KY this evening, spreading rain showers into our region overnight.
Thanks to high pressure over the area we will enjoy plenty of sunshine and our warmest day of the year (some 10-15 degrees above normal). Friday will be just as warm as today, however a trough off the northwest will amplify and begin to break down or move the ridge eastward. Moist southerly flow and unstable conditions as a cold front approaches the region will increase the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms in far northwest Montana and central Idaho Friday morning.
138 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. Light rain will continue to move northeastward over Ohio, in an area of isentropic lift, ahead of the approaching low pressure system this morning. In addition, adjustments to temperature through this morning were to keep some areas warmer, based on insolation from incoming clouds.
335 AM PDT Thu May 4 2017 Above normal temperatures continue today then much cooler Friday into the weekend.