Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
527 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 Fairly quiet weather expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure slowly advanced eastward and is replaced by southerly winds and warm air advection Friday and Friday night. The HiRes models have the highest QPF in southeast MN and west central WI, so have around a half an inch of snow possible later this evening near Red Wing MN.
The trough is expected to weaken as it crosses TX.
623 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure will build into the area promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. Dry high pressure will continue building east into the region today. Near normal high temperatures are expected under mostly sunny skies, in the lower 60s north to upper 60s southeast. Dry high pressure will remain across the region tonight and into Saturday. Guidance numbers across the area indicate a good chance for freezing temperatures tonight, with another possibility of freezing temperatures again Saturday night.
Highs will rebound into the 30s and 40s across the CWA, but we will not tap into the real mild stuff quite yet as the warm front will remain off to our west.
1024 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Low stratocu is lingering close to the Lower Keys early this morning. The cold front will continue to push south of the Atlantic waters today, with the strong north/northeasterly push still slated for later in the day.
/ISSUED 343 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ Mid/high level clouds are streaming eastward across the area early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s at some well inland spots to the mid to upper 50s at the beaches.
06Z surface data indicates high pressure over the upper and middle Mississippi Valley with a frontal boundary from the Tennessee Valley into the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen through sunrise and during the daylight hours as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Snow will begin breaking out in the highway 20 corridor west of Dubuque and increase in areal coverage and move to the southeast. On Saturday, a warm front will lift north through the region.
A new cold front continues to push south through the state this morning. cold front is pushing south through the CWA early this morning.
Will see some clouds very early in the period especially north/central near the exiting cold front, and perhaps some brief light snow/flurries north.
With temperatures barely dropping to freezing and road temps being warmer, the accumulation would probably be limited to grass and elevated surfaces.
Issued by National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 953 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure will build into the area promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. The forecast remains on track late this morning as dry high pressure continues to spread southeast into the region from the Ohio Valley, while a weak lee trough or front dissipates just northwest of the Midlands. Near normal high temperatures are expected under mostly sunny skies, in the lower 60s north to upper 60s southeast. Dry high pressure will remain across the region tonight and into Saturday. Guidance numbers across the area indicate a good chance for freezing temperatures tonight, with another possibility of freezing temperatures again Saturday night.
Mid and high clouds will increase across West Central Texas today, and will offset the slight increase in warming noted in the low level temperatures.
Early this morning, a clipper system, with a reinforcing cold front, was moving across the area. No travel impacts are expected, but the highest elevations could see a brief light dusting. For the daytime, dry high pressure will be in control.
There have been no road issues overnight, but it's possible there could be a few slick spots between 5am and 9am at the bottom of the diurnal temperature cycle with readings slipping just below freezing. High pressure over Missouri and Iowa this morning will arrive in central Kentucky by this evening and then proceed into the Appalachians on Saturday, providing us with dry and cool weather.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 26 55 33 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 25 57 32 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 21 51 29 / 20 0 0 0.
408 AM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 Upper ridge currently over the Great Basin will move into the plains on Saturday.
629 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Aviation An arctic cold front will slip south of the region this morning taking most of the snow showers with it. A weak wave of low pressure will track from northern Illinois to northern Indiana later tonight and Saturday.
An approaching Pacific low pressure system will send a decent moisture push across the area today. As the moisture and front progress eastward, resulting snowfall looks to anchor over the west central mountains of Idaho, lingering through at least Saturday where it may produce 2 to 6 inches of snowfall over the higher peaks.
An upper level low and trough of low pressure near the BAJA region will be moving under the ridge of high pressure aloft helping spread high level moisture from the Pacific across the Four State Region. Temperatures will moderate overnight and into the upcoming weekend as the upper trough to the West opens up as a wave as it rides into the ridge of high pressure aloft and adds additional moisture and mostly cloud conditions.
A weak secondary cold front is currently located along the Kentucky/Tennessee border and sinking southward. Winds will be a bit breezy as well, briefly gusting to around 20 kts along the front, and dew points will fall into the low 20s. Lows will be at or below freezing across the northern half with some upper 20s in the typically cooler locations.
Warm advection -sn ahead of lee trough currently still in Montana. With current progression of trough have backed off on any pcpn reaching the forecast area until noon or more likely later.
1004 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Morning water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the western part of the country, with a trough over the east. The state of Florida resides along the base of this trough. At the surface, a cold front has passed well to the south of the forecast area, with a strong area of high pressure slowly moving southeastward toward the Ohio River Valley region. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters as strong high pressure builds to our north today.
Based on radar trends across northeast Montana through 0845 UTC, the 06 UTC NAM and 00 UTC GFS appear to be overdone in regards to QPF in association with a weak wave and the surface warm front. Thus, will trend towards the 00 UTC ECMWF and 03 UTC SREF which have more plausible solutions for lighter snow across northwest and north central North Dakota and into the James River Valley as the warm front propagates east. Otherwise, behind the warm front and with clearing skies this afternoon, highs in the 40s are expected southwest, compared to temperatures only in the mid 20s for the Turtle Mountains under cloud cover and ahead of the front.
Warmer lows can be expected tonight due to rising upper level heights, continued low-mid level warm air advection, increasing southeasterly surface winds, and gradually rising surface dew points. GKS The weekend will feature a RIDGE aloft with a gusty S-SW flow at the surface. Forecasted temps at or above the highest MOS which will place in the mid to upper 60s.
Flow aloft will back to the southwest tonight and Saturday with even warmer temps expected and an increasing amount of high clouds.
1036 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 A fast moving area of low pressure is moving through the region early this morning. High pressure returns for the weekend.
A dry and quiet pattern will continue through Friday night as short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the period. A weak flow aloft and fairly dry air in the lower/mid levels will preclude any precip chances through late Friday night. With a prevailing south to southwesterly flow tonight, expect lows only down into the 30s(F) with the lower to mid 40s(F) possible in south central Kansas. A dry and quiet period can be expected through the weekend as weak upper level ridging is slow to push eastward across the Central Plains.
447 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 A ridge of high pres extends over the Red River to Lower MS valleys, with light NE winds acrs the area. Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a large trough east of the MS River in association with a low over Hudson Bay while a ridge was noted over the western CONUS. 24 Another day of dry pleasant weather is expected today as high pres ridging slides east acrs the area. This will bring an end to the cooler weather as warmer temperatures and moisture begin to spread back northward acrs the region.
423 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 Ridging aloft will become better defined from the Rio Grande to the Four Corners today all the while subtropical cirrus continues to spill over the region. This cirrus will blossom in extent tonight as as a southern stream trough enters NW Mexico and directs thicker subtropical moisture our way. Until then, lee troughing focusing in CO will keep the core of strongest SW winds (20+ mph) displaced north of our CWA today. Bulk of the low level moisture return will remain over the Rolling Plains but the dryline will manage to push west into eastern New Mexico through the day Saturday. Temperatures will also only warm a few degrees from today thanks to the low level moisture helping to moderate the warmth just a bit.
/issued 339 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): The most significant portion of the forecast period will be on Saturday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms anticipated as a 500 mb trough rapidly approaches from the southwest. Additionally, rough swells will approach the Lower Texas Coast from roughly the east due to a relatively tight pressure gradient.
Drier air has steadily advected in behind the cold front settling south of the area.
/issued 347 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ There is an upper trough centered to the north of the Great Lakes region and another upper trough just south of California. The upper trough south of California moves over the region on Saturday resulting in an increase in upper lift and low-level moisture.
Moisture will finally begin to gradually increase over southeast Kansas, however, warmer daytime temperatures will likely offset the subtle improvement. (See fire weather section below for Friday & Saturday) As upper level ridging begins to build over the Ozarks region (as a well established return flow), temperatures should warm well into the 60s if not close to 70 on Saturday.
Temperatures will quickly climb into the 60s later today under mostly sunny skies, south winds and weak ridging aloft.
Broad upper level trough covering much of the central US, the midwest, and the northeast will push to the east today. A lee side trough setup will provide warm southerly winds for the next few days.
A dry cold front is moving through the area and at 3 am it was located from KBNA-KMEM-KPBF.
/issued 447 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ A ridge of high pres extends over the Red River to Lower MS valleys, with light NE winds acrs the area. Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a large trough east of the MS River in association with a low over Hudson Bay while a ridge was noted over the western CONUS. 24 Another day of dry pleasant weather is expected today as high pres ridging slides east acrs the area. This will bring an end to the cooler weather as warmer temperatures and moisture begin to spread back northward acrs the region.
/issued 423 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ Ridging aloft will become better defined from the Rio Grande to the Four Corners today all the while subtropical cirrus continues to spill over the region. This cirrus will blossom in extent tonight as as a southern stream trough enters NW Mexico and directs thicker subtropical moisture our way. Until then, lee troughing focusing in CO will keep the core of strongest SW winds (20+ mph) displaced north of our CWA today. Bulk of the low level moisture return will remain over the Rolling Plains but the dryline will manage to push west into eastern New Mexico through the day Saturday. Temperatures will also only warm a few degrees from today thanks to the low level moisture helping to moderate the warmth just a bit.
High pressure will briefly work in this evening. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will push to the east tonight and a weak upper level disturbance will begin to approach the area. Warmer air will begin to advect into the area on Saturday. Have warmer temperatures across southwest portions of the region where there will be less cloud cover during the afternoon. Ridging aloft will occur during the early part of the period. This combined with southerly flow in the low levels will lead to a warming trend.
A high pressure center will slowly move across the region keeping the winds off to the South. However, as this high pressure system moves off to the East, a low pressure system will slowly move toward the region. By Saturday night, the low pressure system and its associated front will move through the region.
403 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 Fairly quiet weather expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure slowly advanced eastward and is replaced by southerly winds and warm air advection Friday and Friday night. The HiRes models have the highest QPF in southeast MN and west central WI, so have around a half an inch of snow possible later this evening near Red Wing MN.
High pressures will briefly work in this evening. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will be a little higher across southern portions of the region where more breaks in the cloud will occur later in the day as high pressure will then briefly work into the area. High pressure will push to the east tonight and a weak upper level disturbance will begin to approach the area. Warmer air will begin to advect into the area on Saturday. Have warmer temperatures across southwest portions of the region where there will be less cloud cover during the afternoon. Ridging aloft will occur during the early part of the period. This combined with southerly flow in the low levels will lead to a warming trend.
Models are in good agreement in placing an upper low and trough off the Pacific northwest coast today. This will allow ridging and rising heights to build across the forecast area resulting in dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Currently, lee-side troughing set up last evening which resulted in some tightening pressure gradients across the Upper Yellowstone and Stillwater valleys. The upper low and trough begin to move onshore across the Pacific northwest tonight through Saturday bringing an amplified southwest flow aloft to the area. Lee-side troughing develops again tonight into Saturday morning bringing another period of winds to the Beartooth/Absaroka foothills. Temperatures Saturday are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today.
Counties surrounding Baca county will need to be monitored closely for near critical to critical fire weather conditions at times today, although Baca county is expected to have the highest potential of critical fire weather conditions today.
1022 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The main issues Wednesday will be breezy to possibly windy conditions ahead of a cold front, and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots.
Meanwhile a mid level neutral tilt trof is expected to advect east across the forecast area overnight.
627 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The main issues Wednesday will be breezy to possibly windy conditions ahead of a cold front, and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots.
Still looking for a strong cold front to approach the Mid-State tonight, and then sweep across our area on Wednesday.
After midnight, the showers will be confined to the higher elevations. Snow showers, locally heavy, have shifted to central Idaho as upper trough axis shifts eastward across Idaho. Trough axis will reach western Wyoming this evening.
1007 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will move away to the east tonight as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes.
639 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through tonight before a strong cold front results in strong showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Fries Confidence continues to increase for severe thunderstorms to generate along the cold front on Wednesday.
High pressure remains centered over the Atlantic this afternoon while low pressure is developing over the plains along a frontal boundary that stretches into the Great Lakes. Strong to severe storms are expected tonight and tomorrow across the lower to Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Behind the front a cooler and more seasonable air mass will spill into the region and remain in place into the weekend.
A cold front will cause a wind shift from SW to NW during the overnight from N to S across the area. Latest surface mesoanalysis shows dryline in west central Oklahoma with deepening low pressure in SE CO while a cold front extends northeast into KS.
602 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will move away to the east tonight as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes.
Cold front currently stretches from northeast KS into the west central portions of the state. Cold front will be well south of forecast area by 12z Wed with main story turning to drying low levels and fire weather concerns for Wed afternoon. Also pretty good signal for strong surface winds Sat afternoon as lee troughing strengthens. A strong cold front will continue to move southeast across the area tonight.
906 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Dry conditions continued today due to a small cap around 750mb and dewpoints mixing out into the lower 60s across the interior. Another warm night is forecast, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Low level moisture will pivot around the ridge axis to our south, with scattered/broken stratocu moving into the region overnight.
Rain chances increase through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. A deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West ejects eastward over the Great Plains tonight. As the aforementioned trough progresses into the eastern CONUS, an attendant cold front dives into the lower Mississippi River valley by the mid afternoon hours Wednesday. Ahead of this cold front, a moist and unstable airmass will develop as Gulf air continues to pump into the central Gulf states.
00Z TAF CYCLE Significant Pac trough passage will finish its sweep over the area this evening. Areas of precipitation and wind will taper off tonight as an upper level trough exits east of New Mexico. In the wake of the weather system, cooler air will continue to funnel into central and eastern parts of the state on Wednesday, but temperatures across western areas will begin to rebound.
This has resulted in slightly more backed surface winds, higher relative humidity, and cooler temperatures. For this evening into tonight, a cold front will pass by from northwest to southeast across the area. A tight pressure gradient will result in gusty northwest winds for 3-4 hours immediately behind the cold front. Temperatures will be cooler, more seasonable for late February.
603 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over eastern Iowa, with warm front extending southeastward along/just north of the I-74 corridor. Based on these parameters, it appears convection will first initiate near the warm front across the northern KILX CWA within the next hour or two. After that, attention will focus further west ahead of an advancing cold front where a squall line will take shape. Windy and much cooler weather will be noted in the wake of the system on Wednesday. 500 mb trough axis to shift across central Illinois Wednesday evening with lingering low chance POPs across our far north and east.
The upper ridge will slowly build in from the southwest tonight which should end precip altogether.
Quick update to try and get better timing for upcoming chances for isolated storms in the northwest, as well as storms ahead of the cold front moving through tomorrow. A strong cold front and a line of storms will move through all three terminals during the taf period.
Northwest flow aloft is expected overnight with the upper trough axis shifting east.
The low level profile is warm this evening in strong onshore flow. The elevated inversion and lack of lift should keep the area rain free overnight, but this airmass will support thunderstorms Wednesday ahead of the cold front. Winds wrapping around that high pressure continue have kept surface dewpoints around 70 degrees. Upper ridging in place supports column heights that allow for temperatures to once again reach or come close to records. The upper ridge aloft will begin to suppress south Wednesday as a broad longwave trough tracks across the Central and Upper Plains towards the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this feature will be approaching the forecast area from the west by around noon.
High pressure will return dry conditions and a warming trend to the area the rest of the week. The trough is exiting the area to the east with a long period ridge building into the west coast over the next 36 hours. Our weather will respond with less wind, warmer temperatures and a drying trend.
A high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to move away from the eastern U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 73 40 57 / 30 80 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 71 38 53 / 50 90 50 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 71 37 54 / 50 90 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 72 35 50 / 60 80 60 0 NC.
01 UTC surface analysis shows an area of low pressure across the Upper Mississippi River Valley with a cold front extending across the Central Plains.
However, instability will be sparse as the ridge axis drops into south FL and blocks out any mid lvl short wave energy, while maintaining a stout subsidence inversion in the H85-H70 lyr.
For this reason, we have expanded the areal coverage of the High Wind Watch to include all of our north-central counties.
A broad flat "dirty" ridge has built into the area.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely tonight as a strong cold front approaches.
Snowfall should end from west to east as it passes, save for some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide north of Monarch Pass.
Winds wrapping around that high pressure continue have kept surface dewpoints around 70 degrees. Upper ridging in place supports column heights that allow for temperatures to once again reach or come close to records. The upper ridge aloft will begin to suppress south Wednesday as a broad longwave trough tracks across the Central and Upper Plains towards the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this feature will be approaching the forecast area from the west by around noon.
Tuesday evening convection will be more isolated and strong to severe, while tonight a cold front will gradually push across the state and additional convection will be seen along the cold front with also isolated strong to severe storms.