Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold temperatures continue to drain into the region behind an upper low and its sfc reflection that is positioned across northern MN this morning. The low pressure system will continue to pull away from our region into the western Great Lakes and Ontario today.
Look for patchy freezing or ice fog in the valleys this morning.
Gusty winds early this morning will likely result in enough near surface mixing to keep temps up in the low 20s most areas and not bottoming out to some of the mid teen dew points across west central Kansas. A marked cooler afternoon due to the cold advection behind the front will lead to temperatures only as warm as the low 40s most areas, and struggling to exceed the 30s in locations like Hays and Pratt. The greatest uncertainty in highs will be in the south as the bias corrected models are generally warmer than the NAM and the MOS output. Following the HRRR trend, the temperatures may still be sub-freezing from Dodge City northward as of noon.
348 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Cold temperatures continue to drain into the region behind an upper low and its sfc reflection that is positioned across northern MN this morning. The low pressure system will continue to pull away from our region into the western Great Lakes and Ontario today.
533 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Currently have a deep upper trough extending from the Northern Plains down into the Desert Southwest. Within the trough there are two main pieces of energy, one moving across the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second digging into the Southwest Conus. At the surface, strong cold front stretches from IL into the Ozark region and finally into central TX. Upper trough is expected to slowly swing east late tonight and by Sat morning northwest flow aloft will be in place across the Plains.
222 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 Cold high pressure has moved into the region and will remain in place today. Very cold air running over warmer waters of Fort Peck Lake has produced an area of low clouds that are moving ESE across McCone, Dawson and Wibaux Counties this morning. Meanwhile, areas of dense freezing fog has developed overnight in several areas of the forecast area. The low clouds and freezing fog will continue into the daylight hours of this morning. While the freezing fog will gradually lift today, the low clouds being generated by Fort Peck Lake will likely shift as winds turn to the south and SE and start moving north from the lake this afternoon.
629 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Look for a transition to colder temperatures today as a strong cold front sweeps through the region with temperatures falling through the 40s this afternoon and evening. Northern Minnesota mid level cyclone lifts northeast towards James Bay late tonight. Sharp gradient to deeper moisture associated with Nicole lapping into southeast CWA later today, before being swept eastward by northern stream trough this afternoon. Secondary trough rotates through Upper Great Lakes with magnitude/depth of cold air mass increasing, sufficient for lake effect showers to develop Saturday morning into Saturday night before inversion heights lower.
427 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 Just enough moisture is lingering across the area to allow for some low stratus to remain over the higher terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado this morning. Temperatures for Saturday look to warm a few degrees as a transient ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Saturday will start out mostly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon hours as flow aloft switches to southwesterly ahead of a cutoff low pressure dropping south through the Great Basin.
340 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over eastern North Dakota. A trough extended southwest of this feature toward the Four Corners. West of this trough, ridging extended from northern California into the NW Territories of Canada. East of the trough, the remnants of TS Nicole were located over the Florida Panhandle. North of this feature, low amplitude ridging extended from the Mid-Atlantic northwest into eastern Ontario. At the surface tonight, high pressure was located over eastern Montana.
349 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Current surface analysis places low pressure near Park Rapids, Minnesota, lifting out toward the Great Lakes, while high pressure works its way through eastern Montana. Over the eastern parts of the state blowing and drifting snow continued in the higher wind speeds.
High pressure at the surface will nose southward and bring decreasing winds and decreasing low clouds.
This will keep temperatures generally cooler than average for this time of the year, occasional breezy conditions and a few showers with each disturbance. Another clear, calm night will lead to very cold temperatures across the High Country this morning. Many mountainous areas reaching well below freezing and valley areas lingering right at/slightly above 32 degrees. These next couple days of calmer/warmer/drier weather will only briefly stick around.
and Saturday A cold front has moves east of the forecast area this morning, as evidenced by the westerly winds and plummeting temperatures. Accumulating snow will generally be limited to north-central Wisconsin through Saturday, with the highest amounts across Vilas County. Snowfall amounts are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches across Vilas County today through Saturday, with the highest amounts in the Lake Superior snowbelt region. Highs today will range from the lower 30s across the north to around 40 near the lakeshore. Lows tonight will range from the lower 20s across north-central Wisconsin to the upper 20s across east-central Wisconsin.
An upper level ridge briefly builds over the Northern Rockies today with very stable conditions and strengthening valley inversions.
SFC winds will collapse to less than 5 knots, so some portions of the Lower Keys will radiationally cool.
Meanwhile, altocumulus over the forecast area this afternoon in response to modest lift ahead of an upper level short wave trough moving across New Mexico will shift to the east by early evening with the passing upper trough. Modest low level warm advection will help temperatures warm a bit with highs in the lower to mid 50s areawide after the cold start to the day.
Fetch of extensive post frontal cloudiness also expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon with corresponding adjustments to slightly cooler temp trends.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Hurricane Nicole's remnants are speeding off to the northeast as they get wrapped into the east side of the upper trough and our next quick hit of precip is right on its heels. The upper trough axis is still out to the west, but a surface front is pushing through the midstate this afternoon and evening bringing colder temperatures and an additional wave of light showers. Near freezing temps won't arrive in our northwest until closer to sunrise on Saturday, which is just as the rain wraps up in that area. Saturday night will be much cooler as the upper trough axis moves through and northwesterly flow brings temperatures in the 20s.
1020 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 07z surface analysis had high pressure from eastern MT into the southern Plains. Water vapour had upper low over northwest MN, which is swinging last slug of moisture into the CWA. - Mean upper trough settles over central North America.
1038 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 Just enough moisture is lingering across the area to allow for some low stratus to remain over the higher terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado this morning. Temperatures for Saturday look to warm a few degrees as a transient ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Saturday will start out mostly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon hours as flow aloft switches to southwesterly ahead of a cutoff low pressure dropping south through the Great Basin.
(This evening through Saturday) Skies are gradually clearing out this afternoon in the wake of the strong cold front that went through the area early this morning. Low temperatures will likely fall to around freezing late tonight, with low spots being the coldest. While this is NOT a Hard Freeze, sensitive plants could be still be affected by the freezing temperatures. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to be the main feature across most of Texas. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s.
257 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Much below normal temperatures prevailed across the Central CONUS today as we remain within a mid/upper level trough. Below normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend with the lowest values expected on Saturday with most areas seeing highs in the 15-20 degrees below normal range.
Otherwise, an upper ridge will move through the area today for dry conditions. High level clouds will increase from the west ahead of an approaching upper low near the Oregon coast.
Cloud cover may still be lingering around as several model solutions have some boundary layer moisture trapped under the high. Will see a blocked pattern across North America with upper level ridging in the north Pacific and Alaska inducing broad cyclonic flow across Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes region.
This will keep temperatures generally cooler than average for this time of the year, occasional breezy conditions and a few showers with each disturbance. Expect afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s for the high country with 50s and 60s in the lower deserts. Another clear, calm night will lead to very cold temperatures across the High Country this morning. Many mountainous areas reaching well below freezing and valley areas lingering right at/slightly above 32 degrees. These next couple days of calmer/warmer/drier weather will only briefly stick around.
106 PM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 Ridging across the state the next 36 hours will keep skies mostly clear and winds generally light (for Wyoming standards, anyway). Temperatures again rise into the lower 30s Saturday, inhibited mostly by snowpack.
Early this morning, a strong cold front was moving south across southern portions of the Big Country. Most of the area should see temperatures dip below freezing for several hours early tomorrow morning.
The low rip current risk remains in place through the weekend. For the remainder of the period, a large longwave trough over the central US, along with an associated strong cold front at the surface, will continue to progress eastward. Behind it, a much colder, drier air mass will begin to filter in as a strong high pressure system builds over the central US. Regions east may be able to warm into the low to mid 70s, being that the front does not reach these areas until the early to middle part of the afternoon. Local dips in VISBYs to low/MVFR levels are possible before a cold front moving over the area ushers in a cooler and drier airmass. After the cold front's passage, northwesterly winds of 10-15 knots and gusty are expected.
This will be short-lived though as well to our west, an upper low is moving closer to the Oregon coastline this afternoon.
220 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 To start the short term period, cold high pressure will build at the surface across the Dakotas. Forecast highs range from the low- mid teens north and central, to the low 20s far southwest where winds should be southerly.
A cyclone aloft will pass east of California this weekend, resulting in a slight chance of snow showers in the Sierra Nevada Saturday night.
Behind the rain, a cold frontal passage will cause temperatures to fall through the remainder of the day on Saturday as much colder air enters east TN from the northwest. Cold temperatures this weekend following a cold frontal passage.
Local dips in VISBYs to low/MVFR levels are possible before a cold front moving over the area ushers in a cooler and drier airmass. After the cold front's passage, northwesterly winds of 10-15 knots and gusty are expected.
At the surface, high pressure will build in tonight and remain in place through Saturday.
1255 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Eastward pressing rain showers ahead of a cold front have brought rain to parts of the east and south overnight. Amounts today look mainly confined to the higher, upslope areas of the west, with most folks in these locations likely seeing 1-2 inches of snow. By early afternoon, expecting the western half to be hovering in the low 30s to upper 20s and near 40 in the east. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low off the Pacific NW coast, a deep trough across the upper Great Lakes down into the southern plains 00z Sat with a closed low north of Thunder Bay, Ontario. This trough move slowly east with the trough axis over the lower Great Lakes 12z Sun and into New England Sun night.
/ISSUED 423 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022/ As the low pressure system associated with the recent snowfall continues to propagate eastward beyond the Dakotas, an upper-level ridge extending deep into Northern Canada moves east from the Pacific. This ridge will bring fair weather to the CWA, allowing temperatures to warm up slightly from the previous few days. Breezy winds continue off the Rocky Mountain Front, spreading into the plains west of I-15, bringing temperatures in the low teens to elevations above 3500 ft as far east as Great Falls and areas adjacent to the north slopes of the Little Belts.
Skies will continue to clear behind the passing upper trough. Satellite water vapor imagery shows the trough axis moving overhead exceptionally clearly today, due to some mid level drying right along the axis which is probably related to a stratospheric intrusion.
1020 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 A strong cold front is moving across the Midsouth. Prepare for a cold weekend featuring sub freezing temperatures each morning and highs in the 40s.
1126 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Currently have a deep upper trough extending from the Northern Plains down into the Desert Southwest. Within the trough there are two main pieces of energy, one moving across the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second digging into the Southwest Conus. At the surface, strong cold front stretches from IL into the Ozark region and finally into central TX. Upper trough is expected to slowly swing east late tonight and by Sat morning northwest flow aloft will be in place across the Plains.
TFJ Cold high pressure has moved into the region and will remain in place today. Very cold air running over warmer waters of Fort Peck Lake has produced an area of low clouds that are moving ESE across McCone, Dawson and Wibaux Counties this morning. Meanwhile, areas of freezing fog has developed overnight in several areas of the forecast area. The low clouds and freezing fog will continue into the daylight hours of this morning. While the freezing fog will gradually lift today, the low clouds being generated by Fort Peck Lake will likely shift as winds turn to the south and SE and start moving north from the lake this afternoon.
More formidable lake response indicated Sat night as low level thermal trough peaks within favorable long axis lake Michigan low level flow trajectories. While CAMS derived output looks aggressive, moisture/saturation depths within a relatively deep boundary layer/thermal trough does suggest potential for substantial banding and accumulating snow. Otherwise quite chilly with core of low level thermal ridge in place.
1247 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Cooler today with temperatures falling through the 40s this afternoon and evening. Northern Minnesota mid level cyclone lifts northeast towards James Bay late tonight. Sharp gradient to deeper moisture associated with Nicole lapping into southeast CWA later today, before being swept eastward by northern stream trough this afternoon. Secondary trough rotates through Upper Great Lakes with magnitude/depth of cold air mass increasing, sufficient for lake effect showers to develop Saturday morning into Saturday night before inversion heights lower.
12z models are continuing to struggle on the steepness of the low level lapse rates and the depth of moisture over the region.
Some additional support will come from a low-level fgen band sinking down from southeast Minnesota as well as a departing midlevel trough well to the south. Continued northwest flow will keep highs in the low to mid 30s tomorrow.
Look for brisk northeast winds in the foothills this morning, with some patchy high clouds and slightly warmer conditions into Saturday.
1142 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 The cold front associated with upper level troughing in the central US has pushed through the majority of the CWA.
Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough sliding east into the Plains, west of a ridge axis with the remnants of Nicole absorbed within its core. A semi-cutoff and small cyclone near the western tip of Cuba is moving slowly east. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
Otherwise, dry conditions will resume tonight and for most of the forecast period as upper level ridging sets up once again over the area.
518 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Much below normal temperatures prevailed across the Central CONUS today as we remain within a mid/upper level trough. Below normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend with the lowest values expected on Saturday with most areas seeing highs in the 15-20 degrees below normal range.
Upper trough axis is finally starting to push out of southeast CO this afternoon, and dry but cold northwest flow behind the axis has eroded cloud cover across the forecast area. As stated, the passage of the upper trough has allowed cold dry northwest flow to settle in across Colorado, and this will make for a clear and cold night across the region. Tomorrow a temporary ridge of high pressure crosses the state, with some associated high level cloudiness pushing across through the afternoon. Plan on high temps in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the plains.
A quick moving short wave trough and cold front will then move over the region tonight into tomorrow. The trough axis will then push over the area during the day and that will keep scattered showers in the forecast with the best chances over the higher elevation.
935 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Rain will gradually end tonight as low pressure exits the region. Generally dry weather is expected after the steady rain ends as weak low level ridging briefly builds in.
We're starting to see a fair bit of high cloud cover move through this ridge, though this should have little impact on sensible weather. Temperatures as of this writing are largely in the 60s across valley locations, while a few locations should peak around 70 degrees in the lower deserts. Fair weather should continue through Saturday under the influence of the aforementioned ridge. Look for temperatures this weekend to be a few degrees warmer than they are today, though generally remaining below normal.
The low-level circulation around Nicole has our winds out of the north already, even before an approaching cold front moves through this evening. Although the front is beginning to settle into northern MS and central AR this afternoon, some weak cyclogenesis along the southern end of the cold front will delay the main thrust of the cold front passage through our forecast area until later this evening.
Well organized subsidence behind the upper trough will then help clear the skies for Sat nt. Polar high pressure will finally reach WI late Sun and through the night.
1032 mb high pressure centered over wrn SD/ND this afternoon will ridge south into cntl Nebraska tonight setting the stage for light drainage winds and strong radiational cooling. The forecast assumes the strong high pressure and subsidence will produce generally clear skies. This forecast is slightly warmer than the coolest guidance, the MET guidance, but splits with the NBM 50th percentile which is cooler north, and warmer south. Very dry air will remain across wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday but then moisten up Saturday night as the high pressure builds east into the MO-IA-MN midwest region. The guidance blend, which was warmer the than the NBM 50th, suggested highs in the 20s, 30s and 40s. A warm front will push east, part way into wrn Neb.
A closed low will push across Oregon on Saturday as a transitory ridge moves across the forecast area. This closed low will drop south across Nevada on Saturday night.
425 PM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 Ridging across the state the next 36 hours will keep skies mostly clear and winds generally light (for Wyoming standards, anyway). Temperatures again rise into the lower 30s Saturday, inhibited mostly by snowpack.
532 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Hurricane Nicole's remnants are speeding off to the northeast as they get wrapped into the east side of the upper trough and our next quick hit of precip is right on its heels. The upper trough axis is still out to the west, but a surface front is pushing through the midstate this afternoon and evening bringing colder temperatures and an additional wave of light showers. Near freezing temps won't arrive in our northwest until closer to sunrise on Saturday, which is just as the rain wraps up in that area. Saturday night will be much cooler as the upper trough axis moves through and northwesterly flow brings temperatures in the 20s.
548 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Skies are gradually clearing out this afternoon in the wake of the strong cold front that went through the area early this morning. Low temperatures will likely fall to around freezing late tonight, with low spots being the coldest. While this is NOT a Hard Freeze, sensitive plants could be still be affected by the freezing temperatures. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to be the main feature across most of Texas. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s.
More formidable lake response indicated Sat night as low level thermal trough peaks within favorable long axis lake Michigan low level flow trajectories. While CAMS derived output looks aggressive, moisture/saturation depths within a relatively deep boundary layer/thermal trough does suggest potential for substantial banding and accumulating snow. Otherwise quite chilly with core of low level thermal ridge in place. In addition to lake effect, mid/upper level forcing will increase across NE Indiana Saturday morning as southern stream trough ejects northeast with elevated mid level frontogenesis forcing possibly bringing some light snow to KFWA from 14Z-20Z.
A weak upper ridge over the Pac NW will drift east through Saturday before a weak disturbance drops into the region from the NW.
A weak ridge of high pressure is over the region causing strong valley inversions. High clouds associated with a low pressure along the Pacific coast will be moving over the Northern Rockies tonight. The aforementioned low pressure system will dig into the Great Basin region this weekend causing weak northerly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies.
511 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Yesterdays low pressure system continues to move off to the northeast this afternoon. Northwesterly flow on the backside of the low is blanketing the entire region in low level stratus while producing flurries. As surface ridging continues to slide east, surface winds will begin to veer to out of the east during the afternoon hours.
238 PM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 A ridge of high pressure over the inter-mountain region will mean another night of chilly northerly flow over our region. That upper ridge axis will start to shift east Saturday and allow our daytime highs to moderate a bit more, but still remain below seasonal averages. Look for highs ranging from mid and upper 30s west to the lower 20s east under increasing high cloudiness late in the day. BT A dominate upper ridge looks to remain in place over coastal British Columbia that will keep steep northerly flow over the area through mid next weekl. Cooler temperatures will stick around that will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal each day(normal high for this time of year is ~48).