Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
225 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016 The cool and dry trend will continue through the remainder of the work week as a mid-level ridge situated over the Rockies gradually builds into the Central Plains. This feature will be blocked by a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes to the east along with a developing trough over the Pacific Northwest expected to deepen through the latter half of the week. The upper low across the Great Lakes will sink southward tonight, which will send a secondary surface cold front into northern Missouri early Wednesday morning. Generally expecting lows in the upper 40s behind the frontal boundary with lows in the low to mid 50s ahead of the boundary.
The low will begin to fill today. Frontogenesis will occur late today over the Nrn Plains as a surge of cool air sinks S on the backside of the low. Expect a ridge of high pressure to build across the center of the country over the middle portion of the week as a strong low pressure system deepens across the Ohio valley and an area of low pressure spins off the Pacific northwest. expect the weaker area of low pressure across northern Mexico this lifting northeastward across the Rockies and into the plains toward the end of the upcoming weekend.
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Slow moving cold front is still somewhere in the vicinity of Interstate 20.
As high pressure continues to build over the region, skies will gradually clear, from north to south, today and tonight. Highs today and lows tonight, will be cooler than seasonal normals for this time of year: mainly 75 to 80 and mid 50s, respectively.
1141 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows large scale ridging across the Intermountain West extending northwards across the Canadian Rockies. Two closed upper low are sandwiched on either side of this upper level ridge: one over the Great Lakes, and another over the Baja Peninsula. Our CWA remains predominantly under the influence of the upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure remains in place over our CWA.
135 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Low pressure located near the north shore of Lake Superior will drift south across the central Great Lakes toward Ohio through Wednesday.
Clouds will begin to increase late in the day from out of the northwest as this low approaches but an otherwise sunny and pleasant day. Broad and deep upper level low drops south from the Great Lakes to Eastern KY by Wednesday night.
Another hot day today but trending cooler in most areas as gradients start turning onshore. Moisture wrapping around an upper low over the nrn portion of the Gulf of California is generating some clouds over LA County this morning and models show a little instability over the ern San Gabriels this afternoon. The rest of the area will see at least partly cloudy skies as mid level clouds wrap in from the upper low which will have moved over the center of Riverside county. the upper low will be in a prime position to wrap moisture into the mtns from the NE the best chc of TSTMs will be over the highest peaks of the VTA and LA mtns but there will be a slight chc of a TSTM over any part of the mtns.
An upper level low is expected to drift southeast from the upper Great Lakes into the Appalachian mountain region towards the end of the week. Upper low currently located over Lake Superior is expected to drop south through the Great Lakes tonight. Cloud cover should increase tonight as the cloud shield associated with the upper low drops south. Model guidance suggests a rather strong vorticity lobe rotating around the low will be approaching the area from the northwest during the pre dawn hours of Wednesday. Models suggest strong vorticity lobe, in conjunction with upper low, will move through the local area during the day on Wednesday.
The region will remain in a relatively dry airmass as the upper low to the north of the great lakes begins to propagate southward. Water vapor imagery indicates a stronger wave rounding the upper low that will bring forcing/clouds/showers to areas east of the valley today. upper/lower ridging builds into the region leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions.
A weak cold front drops southwest across the forecast area early Wednesday. the westward advancement of the cold front is evident at 850hpa as north central Neb cools from 15C to 7C and KLBF from 19C to 13C by the morning. With lightening sfc winds, a clear sky, and low level CAA, trended min temps toward the cooler MAV solution and dropped another degree in the river valleys. Max temps are still on the warmer end of guidance (ECM) for full sunshine.
For later tonight and early wed expect mostly cloudy skies with maybe some isolated showers or thunderstorms near the coast early then shifting east and south by afternoon as cooler drier air west of the weak front begins to surge further east. Expect cooler lows tonight especially to the north and west of kmob ranging from the lower to middle 60s to the north and and the upper 60s to lower 70s to east and along the coast.
657 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area through Wednesday night. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Cold front continues to move into the upstate with showers and thunderstorms moving into the western Midlands and northern CSRA. Models are a fairly good agreement on the movement of the Great Lakes upper low the next few days.
/Tonight/ Large upper level low pressure centered over Lake Superior will drop south through the overnight to southern Lake Michigan by Wednesday morning.
323 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Surface front is making its way across north and central Georgia this afternoon but the cooler/drier air is still a day away. A few showers and storms are popping up over the higher elevations of northeast GA where better low lvl forcing exists. Loss of heating after sunset will quickly diminish much of the convection as cooler/drier air begins to filter across our northwest GA counties overnight.
A weak cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to stall before reaching our CWA.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a strong area of low pressure over eastern sections of Lake Superior with areas of high pressure with over the Northern Plains or stretched from the Central Plains east-northeast along the Ohio River Valley. As upper ridging builds from the Northern Plains northeast into Western Ontario, this will force the nearly vertically-stacked system to drop south from Lake Superior to southern sections of Lake Michigan tonight.
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Dewpoints are currently in the 40s across the area as sfc ridging extends from AR eastward across the mid state. Should see lows generally in the lower 50s by sunrise. Upper level support is evident as a deepening upper trough drops southward.
1252 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Main concern in the short term is rain chances with large upper low spinning through the Great Lakes Region for the next few days. Satellite imagery shows the low spinning over eastern Lake Superior, and it will slowly drop south today. This occurs as upper ridging tries to build in from the west. The big question comes in by the weekend as the models try to figure out how to handle the closed system and how it will react to the weakening ridge and deepening western trough approaching from the west coast.
544 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area through Wednesday night. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Latest analysis depicts the cold front extending from eastern West Virginia southwestward along the spine of the Appalachians into northern Georgia. The high moisture content and possible training of convection may lead to a limited isolated flood threat especially in the northern Midlands where recent rain has fallen. Models are a fairly good agreement on the movement of the Great Lakes upper low the next few days.
322 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Models a little faster with cold front tomorrow but still expect near or above average temperatures across the southern half of Oklahoma into northern Texas.
201 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An encroaching upper low will return rain chances for the latter half of the week. The resulting south, to southwest wind has already neutralized cold advection in the wake of yesterdays front, and resuming warm advection should support highs near the seasonal averages despite the encroaching, cold upper low.
High pressure will provide a dry day today, then an upper level low will move into the area and loiter into the weekend. High pressure will remain in control of the weather across central Indiana today.
Upper low remaining nearly stationary tonight over the Great Lakes into southern Canada, while our area remains cool and clear with light westerly winds. Overnight hours are also clear with light winds, but upper low sends a back door front into the area toward sunrise, which may keep northern counties in the upper 40s with middle 50s to the better mixed farther southern counties. Ridging dominates the local weather through at least the early portions of the weekend.
Gradients trending onshore today have turned temperatures cooler in most lower elevation locations. San Luis Obispo the one exception at 106 so far today, otherwise most locations about 5-10 degrees cooler. And if a tstorm does form the northeast flow around the upper low may push those into the foothills and valleys.
613 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An encroaching upper low will return rain to the Upper Ohio Region for the latter half of the week. The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the Mid, and Upper Ohio Valley for the latter half of the week.
The upper low responsible for the northwesterly flow will continue to dig its way southward, centering itself roughly near the IL/IN border this afternoon. Dew points likely to dip back into the low to mid 30s during the afternoon with the aforementioned mixing and dry air mass remaining over the area.
Welcome to Fall! Deep, closed upper low located over the Great Lakes region this morning will rotate south into the Ohio Valley during the next 48-72 hours. Deterministic models seem to agree that the center of the upper low will remain just east of the forecast area, but this still may be close enough to generate a few showers over our eastern counties as we head toward mid week/late week. Would not be too surprised to see some cold air funnel cloud reports by that time, esp just east of the forecast area, where sb capes at or above 500 J/KG may be generated underneath the upper low. The consensus is to sink a cut off upper low from the great lakes region south/southwestward over central KY toward the end of the week.
Winds will be light and primarily out of the northwest today as the region sits northeast of a high pressure centered over Texas. However, this high will continue to weaken as a trough approaches from the north. Tomorrow, a dry cold front will approach from the North, which will turn winds from the WSW to N as it passes. High temps today wl range fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The fnt wl sweep thru the area by late Wed ngt, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air.
Lots of sunshine and warmer for Wednesday which will likely be the warmest day of the week. A strong upper level low develops across the eastern CONUS and a narrow ridge builds over the central US.
Tonight Through Wednesday High pressure remains anchored over the state through the overnight hours. An area of low pressure is expected to move through the desert southwest beginning early Wednesday morning, and continuing to move northeast through Wednesday. Wednesday night to Tuesday The stretch of dry weather looks to end on Wednesday night as moisture from an upper level low now Near California begins to move into southwestern portions of the state.
An upper ridge over Montana today will lean east tonight and allow for a cooler airmass to filter into the area. A dry cold front will drop south tonight across the CWA allowing for the cooler air to push in on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): A weak coastal trough lies offshore, still triggering isolated convection, but coverage is on the decrease over land as north winds and lower dew points take hold. Have trimmed back pops for tonight through Wednesday night, and gone with scattered or less showers through the short term, which is a lot less than a model consensus was advertising, probably trying to bring the coastal trough onshore. Cooler, drier air is filtering in and essentially turning a convective situation into an overrunning one, however, and a weak one at that. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, in the lower to middle 70s at night, with some upper 60s possible in the upper valley.
but a few upper 60s may occur cooler rural interior sections. 12Z GFS run still indicating deep layer low pressure area dropping from the Great Lakes region through OH/TN region Wed-Thurs.
230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Closed 500 mb low/trough sinking southward across the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon. Area of showers firing in response to the closed/stacked low pressure system, with a strong bit of upper level energy having a large hand in its production. Despite the bulk of the forcing mechanisms having vacated the local area, the low level lapse remain favorable, there hints in the GFS/NAM of weak (~50 J/kg) of instability, and the proximity of the low (still close by) also support the small chances. The main concern for the beginning of this period is if the closed low will retrograde and affect the forecast area.
255 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 A cold front will move well offshore this evening. High pressure will gradually build into the region from the north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The high will remain parked to our north while low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east.
254 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 The southern High Plains will remain sandwiched between an anomalously cold closed low over the Great Lakes states and a deepening long wave trough off the west coast of North America.
147 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Deep closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw conus troughing ongoing. This will support mean ridging with associated waa over the northern plains under dry nw flow and no sig wx in the period. Rotating Fujiwara like impulse will support a weak backdoor cold front into the fa tonight.
Most of the rain will hold off but showers are possible from the NY/PA border toward 5 PM as an upper level low drops due south, and moisture around it increase in a increasing southerly flow. Wednesday night the upper lvl low will start to dig southward across the midwest and the low pressure system that is currently riding up the east coast will drift out to sea.
The synoptic pattern featured a large deep closed low over Lake Superior while yesterday's cold front has made it down to northern GA and western NC. The aforementioned upper low will drop down into Wisconsin/Michigan. Strato- cu associated with the upper low will work into central and southern Indiana toward daybreak Wednesday. On Wednesday, the upper low center swings into Indiana while pieces of energy pivot around it.
254 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 An upper level ridge will remain over the area tonight and Wednesday, as an upper level low slowly moves from northern Baja CA into southern CA. Low temps tonight should mostly be in the 30s and 40s, with around freezing again in the Alamosa area.
Surface analysis this morning places a ridge of high pressure from the Ohio Valley back through the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. A ridge of high pressure will bring a pleasant and rain free day to the Mid-South today.
A dry cold front will move through the region late in the period. Warmer temperatures expected today as light west to southwest winds will be the rule today. however moisture ahead of the front will remain cut off due to the upper level system centered across the lower great lakes region. A period of dry weather will continue through the weekend as upper ridging remains in place across the plains as the upper system remains cut off across the eastern CONUS.
222 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 No weather concerns in this period what so ever as a massive high pressure ridge dominates the weather map. The only interesting thing would be a backdoor cold front that will spread a reinforcing shot of cool air over the region on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.
(Issued 1029 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016) This morning finally felt like Fall with cooler and drier air in place, thanks to the passage of the cold front yesterday. Overnight lows were cooler by several degrees, getting into the lower 60s with dewpoints continuing to fall. Adjusted cloud cover, with visible satellite showing some bkn/ovc lingering across NE AL a little bit longer than originally forecasted, otherwise temps will be substantially cooler across the board with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Went with highs closer to the warmer NAM MOS temperatures which supports the RAP forecast soundings that show mixing up into the 850-800 layer by this afternoon. Both the GFS and NAM are showing a weak upper trough moving through Missouri and Illinois from the northwest which will bring an attendant surface cold front into the CWA between 06-12Z. This trough will produce some weak mid-level ascent, but have no moisture to work with, so only expect partly cloudy skies with its passage and no rain. Models are showing a tremendous amount of mid-upper level vorticity dropping south over the area on the western side of the low. Remainder of the week should remain seasonably cool under the influence of a sprawling Canadian high pressure system.
High pressure will break down and shift east tonight as a weak storm system moving up from the south begins spreading moisture back to the area.
A backdoor cold front will traverse across the forecast district tomorrow morning. In the meantime, lows tonight should be a little warmer as a downslope wind continues through the overnight - upper 40s to mid 50s. With the above mentioned front, tomorrows highs will be cooler. There is weak caa, particularly across the NE zones, where 850-hPa temperatures are forecast to drop in the lower teens.
Latest water vapor imagery in addition to RAP 500mb analysis shows a large upper level low spinning over the northern Great Lakes with a building ridge over the western states. This upper low is progged to continue to drop south and rotate into the Ohio River Valley by late Wednesday. A strong vort lobe rotating around the back side of the low will aid in pushing a westward moving cold front into the CWA keep highs in the 60s for Wednesday.
The mid to upper level ridge will be over the region through the forecast period.
410 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An upper level low will work into the region on Wednesday and influence the weather pattern through the remainder of the week. Clear to mostly clear skies will give way to an increase in clouds overnight as an upper level low approaches the area. Went on the cooler side of guidance for low temperatures overnight. Increased precipitation chances for the day on Wednesday as the upper level low pressure system approaches the area.
643 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 A cold front will move well offshore this evening. High pressure will gradually build into the region from the north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The high will remain parked to our north while low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east.
354 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 A stationary front with weak areas of low pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic states to Louisiana. Another cold front will track through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic will move slowly northeast into New England this weekend. Front was hung up along the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Models fill low clouds and some fog back in overnight, especially east of the Blue Ridge.
Warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
A trough is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula.
1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Upper ridge and light northerly flow aloft will keep dry weather over the region again today. Old upper low begins to migrate northward into southern CA and southwest AZ tonight. An upper low over southern CA will open up and migrate across the Great Basin starting Wed, drawing moisture up across the 4 Corners into western CO. The ridge of high pressure over the state will slide to the east through the day, with the ridge axis reaching the eastern border Wed night. Look for max temps in the 70s for the high valleys, and in the 80s for the eastern plains.
For areas farther inland, a rather cool and pleasant night is expected with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s and lows dipping into the lower to middle 60s. However, farther south along the coast, rather humid conditions will persist for one more night with lows only cooling into the lower to middle 70s. By tomorrow afternoon and night, an upper level trough axis will rotate around the base of a parent upper level low over the Great Lakes States and pass through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This upper level trough will provide enough forcing to drive the drier and cooler airmass parked across North Louisiana and Mississippi southward into the forecast area. As this airmass moves in, a noticeable drop in humidity and cooler temperatures can be expected for tomorrow night.
/issued 946 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/ The first cold front of the Autumn season has pushed into the Gulf this Tuesday morning. Accordingly in the wake of the front, expect a cooler and drier airmass to control our weather for the next several days.
A deep 500mb closed low centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon will sink south into the lower Ohio Valley through the short term period. A couple of vorticity lobes rotating around this upper low will bring some rain chances to the region through Wednesday night. With freezing levels around 8-9 kft, a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Lows tonight should be a bit warmer than last night in the lower to mid 50s.
Expect the lower cloud ceilings to scatter out at VCT by this evening and the southern TAF sites overnight.
236 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An encroaching upper low will return rain to the Upper Ohio Region for the latter half of the week. The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the Mid, and Upper Ohio Valley for the latter half of the week.
A strong PV anomaly rounding this large trough will help drive a cold front through the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The low will become cut off from the progressive westerlies through the end of the week, which will keep it spinning just east of the region until it finally lifts back to the northeast by late in the upcoming weekend. With this westward shift, portions of western and southwestern IL will be more under the influence of several vort maxes rounding the low.
An upper level low is expected to drift southeast from the upper Great Lakes into the Appalachian mountain region towards the end of the week. Models suggest strong vorticity lobe, in conjunction with upper low, will move through the local area during the day on Wednesday.
The large upper level low currently over the western Great Lakes region will gradually shift southward towards Kentucky throughout the short term. Energy from this low is expected to pivot into our area Wednesday afternoon, providing enough lift for at least a chance for showers. In terms of sensible weather, today will finally feel like autumn with a much drier airmass in place and seasonal temperatures in the lower 70s. Once the fog dissipates, skies should remain mostly clear throughout the day as the upper low stays far enough to our north. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 40s before rebounding into the low and mid 70s by tomorrow afternoon. As the upper low approaches tomorrow afternoon, cloud cover and shower chances will increase, with shower chances peaking in the afternoon and evening.