Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
917 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure overhead this evening will shift to the east coast overnight. Southwest flow will ramp up on Tuesday in advance of a trough developing over the Upper Great Lakes. The trough will deepen across the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday night pulling a cold front south across the area. Lingering cloud cover in Pennsylvania will gradually erode overnight as the ridge axis moves overhead and the flow backs to the southwest. Southwest flow and warm advection will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next trough that will deepen across the Great Lakes region during the mid-week period. Daytime hours will be dry with very dry air above 800mb until the airmass starts to moisten as the cold front approaches.
Surface wise, a nebulous ridge lies near our region with a trough of low pressure aligned across south central Florida and the adjacent waters. A mountainous and deep anticyclone will translate eastward into the Southeast United States southward down the Sunshine State and into the Northwest Caribbean Sea. With the close proximity of the ridge, strong subsidence along with scant moisture will preclude any shower activity.
High pressure builds in tonight and early Tuesday with dry weather expected.
741 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build eastward from the Ohio Valley overnight.
939 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday.
309 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 An upper level low will move east-northeastward acrs NM tonight, moving into the TX panhandle area Tue morning. Most of the forecast area should be dry on Tue, with warmer temps. The southeast plains should see highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with mainly 40s in the high valley locations. Tue night and Wed will be dry as an upper ridge moves ovr the area. Temps will be even warmer on Wed with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s acrs the southeast plains. Only slightly warmer temps are expected in the high valleys, where most temps will be in the 40s.
This high pushed a cold front across the region yesterday afternoon/early evening, which has ushered colder air across the region. An area of low pressure across SW New Mexico was spreading an area of high altitude clouds eastward towards this region. A stormy flow was moving across the northern Pacific Basin, as a powerful jet between 30-40N, and east of Japan to 150W continued south of upper lows east of the Kamchatka and the Aleutians.
A reinforcing surge of cooler air will move southward across the area Tuesday morning wtih gusty north winds in its wake. Tuesday night expected to be dry, as strong downward motions resume following the passage of mid-level trof.
High and mid level clouds will gradually increase throughout the day tomorrow, ahead of a low pressure system that will bring showers to the area Tuesday evening.
556 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper low approaching sw TX with mid level warm advection and increasing upper diffluence ahead of this wave resulting in showers moving into central/south central KS. Sharp upper ridging will develop over the Rockies and into the Plains by Thu with another southern stream impulse over northern Mexico. There is some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in tracking a sharp upper trough across the Rockies and out into the Plains Sun night through Monday night which will bring another chance of rain for much of our area.
We will be in a confluent flow situation with a trough developing over the Great Lakes, and a compact system moving east out of the southern Plains. Cannot completely rule out some partially melted snow which would result in pellets of some form, but temperatures should be above freezing, so there will be no impact.
Meanwhile at the surface, two high pressure centers were present, one over the NRN Great Basin, and a second well offshore from SRN CA. By midweek, the trough located to the west will advance EWD, and subsequently break down the upper ridge. Midlevel height falls occurring downstream from the previously mentioned zone of troughing will aid in shunting a midlevel ridge eastward, with moist south-southwesterlies developing in its wake. which will materialize in the form of a ~990 mb low pressure center near Vancouver Island, BC.
444 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Updated aviation discussion As of Monday afternoon, a cutoff low pressure system continues to spin over the southwestern CONUS. The center of this low pressure system will slowly drift east through New Mexico this evening. By midnight low pressure will transition eastward, with the best dynamic support for snow and mid-level moisture content shifting east into the high plains as well.
1008 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Generally under high pressure which should keep us fairly dry. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
Synoptic Setup: Coldest air sits over Baffin Island with the surrounding trough dipping down into the Eastern Canada and the Great lakes. A long wave ridge has formed in response over the US and Canada coastline where it is cresting over southern Alaska and is moving inland rapidly. Northeast montana sits under northwest flow aloft on the warmer side of this gradient. Today and Tonight: As warm air moves in aloft and surface temperatures rise above freezing today, snow coverage is beginning to melt away. This is providing for a moisture layer at the lowest levels where winds are not strong enough to mix it away.
720 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will briefly return for later tonight into Tuesday.
Southerly winds during this timeframe will be approaching 15 kts sustained speeds with higher gusts reaching or exceeding 20-25 kts ahead of the cold front which will not reach any of our sites until after this TAF period concludes at 12/00Z. Under mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Showers to increase in coverage across the region on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front across the Red River valley.
South to southeast winds will persist, but turn southwest Sunday morning ahead of a weak cold front. Still expect a decent warm up tomorrow as low level SW flow continues ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should make it into NW OK by mid day.
A weak low pressure system to our north will bring an increase in clouds and a slight chance of rain showers to the area on Sunday. No significant accumulation is anticipated from these showers as the bulk of the moisture associated with the low pressure system will pass to the north. Most locations are expected to see increasing mid and high level clouds with only a slight chance of any measurable precipitation mainly over the higher terrain near the Utah border.
This band of moisture will remain in about the same area through this evening, then drop south with the trough axis late tonight and early Sunday morning. Exception could be Rabbit Ears Pass which should be on the high end. For the plains I focused the PoPs a bit more on the time just before the trough passage as westerly flow should maintain a dry subcloud layer that will limit the chance of showers reaching the ground through this evening. Still a chance of some showers for a few hours on Sunday morning, probably a quick hit with temperatures near or above freezing so not too worried about significant amounts.
These include the Lower Treasure Valley of Oregon, the Upper Weiser River Basin, and Baker County. Additional showers are expected in the higher terrain of Baker County and in the west central and Boise mountains later tonight. Pcpn decreased or ended in most areas earlier today as a cold front sagged esewd through our CWA. Dense fog has developed in the Upper Treasure Valley and is slowly expanding into the Lower Treasure Valley of Idaho.
542 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 For the rest of today and tonight, we will see the pressure gradient continue to tighten and winds will continue to increase tonight as low pressure begins to track east into the plains. Parts of the far eastern Ozarks may have a 1-2 hour window for some very light freezing drizzle/rain before surface temperatures rise above freezing, but should not cause any hazardous conditions to develop. QPF chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, especially over the southeast 2/3 of the CWA as the cold front pushes through. Rain should come to an end over the eastern Ozarks prior to the overnight hours and sub-freezing surface temperatures should occur AFTER the precipitation ends. The cold air behind this cold front will be fairly shallow and 850mb temperatures should remain above freezing.
The high pressure centered over the upper Ohio Valley will shift east to along the eastern seaboard tonight. The ridge will still extend southwest into GA and southern AL. Above the weak inversion, a few spots could stay around 30 degrees on the ridge tops. Forecast soundings and MOS values suggest daytime maxes should reach back into the lower to middle 50s as a result. It's associated low will move track across the western and central Great Lakes region, while the cold front drops into a northeast-southwest position across the upper Ohio and lower TN valleys, just northwest of our forecast area by late Sunday Night.
Southerly winds during this timeframe will be approaching 15 kts sustained speeds with higher gusts reaching or exceeding 20-25 kts ahead of the cold front which will not reach any of our sites until after this TAF period concludes at 12/00Z.
This low has a developing band just to the south and east that may move through Valley and McCone county before all snow ceases across the counties. Sunday will see a weak ridge become zonal flow for a mostly dry day.
The mass-field squeeze play is the result of a 1034 mb high pressure system centered near the Chesapeake Bay, pressing against the northward creeping frontal boundary which has recently affected the island chain. Numerous showers and areas of moderate rainfall persist along this front, which stretches from South Florida, across the Middle and Upper Keys, to the distant Straits of Florida south of the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints now near 70. Strong high pressure will continue to slide eastward off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight through Sunday night.
Ridge in the low levels now centered over the Mid-Atlantic states which is allowing low level winds to become more easterly and southeasterly. On Sunday, low pressure is expected over the Southern Plains that will allow winds to become more southeast and south. /issued 341 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley which is providing an erly low-level flow over the ern 1/2 of the forecast area. As a result overnight temps will be considerable warmer across the swrn 1/3 of the area. some 15 degrees warmer across coastal sern TX. but still 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning's lows.
while a weak cold front drops across southern portions.
A weak low pressure system passing to our north will bring an increase in clouds and a slight chance of showers to far northern Arizona tonight and Sunday.
923 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 High pressure will build south of the region overnight.
High pressure currently dominating the area will move off to the east as the next trough slowly moves eastward across the high plains.
A cold front will bring a gusty north-northwesterly wind shift through the terminals Sunday afternoon. Northwesterly flow upstream of the trough axis will maintain generally dry conditions across the High Plains into the middle of the coming week. A series of cold fronts will bring airmasses with varying degrees of coolness southward through this time period with the first front forecast to move across the Panhandle Sunday, entering the northern South Plains late in the afternoon.
This slug of moisture should hinder nocturnal cooling, and the previous forecast has already accounted for overnight lows several degrees warmer than this morning. Latest global model output continues to be in outstanding agreement that the Desert Southwest will remain in dry northwesterly flow/flat ridging aloft as a very cold longwave upper trof digs southward into the north- central US.
High pressure and clear skies will remain through the night with low temperatures several degrees below normal. Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 49 41 54 / 0 20 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 48 41 54 / 0 10 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 22 48 41 51 / 0 10 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 45 37 51 / 0 10 70 90.
Precip chances will spread from coastal northeast Florida tonight into southeast Georgia by early tomorrow morning as coastal trough shifts northward along the southeast Atlantic coast. Low ceilings will continue to pivot northward tonight as a coastal trough breaks down and drifts NNW tonight. Onshore winds will persist through Sunday remaining between 15-20 mph as coastal trough develops along the southeast Atlantic coast overnight tonight warranting exercise caution wording in the near and offshore waters for the overnight period. As trough lifts northward and moves onshore winds will come down to 10-15 mph and shift to the southeast throughout the day on Sunday.
/DL/ Tonight through Sunday: Surface ridging continues to be over the region, leading to a warm afternoon as low level boundary layer temperatures are slowly on the rise as warm air advection slowly moves into the area. One thing of note is how well we have mixed with dewpoints falling into the low-mid teens. This will keep lows up somewhat in the west back closer to freezing while areas in the east could still fall into the upper 20s.
slowly warming through the lower to middle 20s through midday.
Pressure gradient has decreased in the north due to the proximity of an inverted trough. The inverted trough is forecast to dissipated by Sunday morning and the overall pressure gradient should tighten over most of the waters.
This low cloud field will gradually expand north tonight, moreso after Midnight. This will affect all of our TAF sites, although KABI may be near the northern edge of the low cloud cover. The low cloud field will remain into mid-morning Sunday before breaking up. However, low-level wind shear could occur at our southern terminals, given the strength of the low-level jet. The higher wind speeds and gusts are expected at KABI and KSJT. Temperatures will be much warmer tonight due to cloud cover and the increase in low level moisture, with overnight lows mainly in the mid and upper 40s. Southwest winds combined with 850mb warm advection will push temperatures well above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 70s.
346 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland.
Friday will be cooler and windy with late morning cumulus expected to develop, especially northeast of I-94. This area also has the steepest mid- level lapse rates, and therefore the highest instability. This is in pretty stark contrast with the HiRes models with show central MN and northern WI as the primary areas for strong storms, and this discontinuity between my conceptual model/current radar and the HiRes models are the cause for the high uncertainty in this forecast.
110 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Warm and humid weather will continue today and tomorrow, with a cold front expected to bring thunderstorms on Friday and cooler weather for the weekend. Friday and Friday night will bring the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms during the seven day forecast. Although the system's primary cold front will not cross the region until the overnight hours, showers could move into the forecast area as early as Friday afternoon. Timing of the cold front itself will be critical for determining just how much instability will be available for severe storms, but modest unidirectional wind shear should bring a chance for severe weather across the entire forecast area.
Upper trof and lake breeze are initiating isolated showers over the Northwest Mountains at mid afternoon. Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the lower to mid 70s southeast. Still looking for heat indices to approach advisory criteria over portions of the lower Susq River Valley on Friday.
203 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Warm and humid weather will continue today and tomorrow, with a cold front expected to bring thunderstorms on Friday and cooler weather for the weekend. Friday and Friday night will bring the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms during the seven day forecast. Although the system's primary cold front will not cross the region until the overnight hours, showers could move into the forecast area as early as Friday afternoon. Timing of the cold front itself will be critical for determining just how much instability will be available for severe storms, but modest unidirectional wind shear should bring a chance for severe weather across the entire forecast area.
High pressure looks to dominate across the region through the period. The broad mid/upper ridge which has persisted over the Deep South/North Gulf is forecast to break down slightly by this weekend, allowing weak disturbances which were previously being shunted around the CWA to have greater influence through the period.
Due to this, temperatures are running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. will be to the east with another upper level trough moving across the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this system will move across the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River Valley during the day.
353 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Things are evolving fairly rapidly as of mid afternoon as strong deep layer forcing from the upper trof in the Dakotas continues to overspread much of MN. This upper trough will dig into the Northwestern U.
1218 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a zonal pattern across the Central Rockies with an elongated ridge across the southern plains. A stronger trough is digging into the northern plains from the Northern Rockies. With faster trough passage in the northern plains FROPA is now shown to move through our CWA during the day today, with some faster members showing it south of our CWA by midday. Latest trends in short range and high resolution guidance is to keep our CWA dry through most of the day, with better chances late afternoon through the evening as activity along the Cheyenne ridge transitions southeast through the mean flow impacting our north and eventually our east.
air is drier and cooler with north-northwesterly sfc winds. models show a resurgence in easterly/upslope flow on the plains in the wake of the passing trough. Model then show a mid-level disturbance rotating over the top of the resident upper ridge and over Nero Colorado by mid to late afternoon. So large hail and damaging wind also a possibility along the slowly eastward propagating trough axis. storm chances much lower Ispell in the high country where air much drier and more stable. Highs tomorrow 1-3deg c warmer in the wake of today's short wave passage.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Persistent 500 mb ridge will remain stretched across Texas through the short term period, dominating the weather pattern. While the column overall is fairly dry, southeasterly flow in the lower levels will maintain dewpoints in the 60s and 70s.
1137 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 Current surface map shows cold front moving through western South Dakota. Warmer on Friday with return flow on back side of high.
Clouds/precipitation will have significant impact on temperatures as well, with some days warmer/some cooler than initialization grids. -Howerton Strong/gusty southeasterly winds should persist this afternoon, likely turning more north/northeasterly over mainly the northern half of KS by late afternoon/evening as high pressure approaches from the north.
Ridge axis across the southern Florida peninsula will shift southward tomorrow.
A flat ridge of high pressure over the region is in the process of giving way to an approaching weak cold front. More precipitation and cooler conditions are expected through the weekend. An upper trough will push a cool front into the Pacific Northwest tonight.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing scattered CU field generally east of the Highway 281 corridor. /issued 409 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb ridging will remain entrenched over the RGV through Friday with a subsident airmass maintaining hot and rain free conditions.
1241 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 /18z TAFS/ A broad upper level ridge will continue to stretch across the southern CONUS through Friday evening with mostly VFR conditions expected during the daytime hours. Expect the low clouds to mix out by mid to late morning. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across North and Central Texas but, it will shift slowly southwestward this weekend.
Continued to indicate only a low 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm through this afternoon and into the early evening and again Friday afternoon given high surface based instability and weak forcing aloft from a sheared out upper level trough axis. High pressure aloft builds in across the southeast U.
Upper ridging is quickly building in to the treasure state on the heels of an exiting low. This ridging will make for dry conditions tonight, and warming temperatures. High temps on Friday will be a good 10 degrees warmer then today.
Suspect warmer 700mb will suppress thunderstorm activity from forming especially west of I-135/35, with cooler 850-700mb temperatures possibly allowing for isolated afternoon redevelopment generally east of I-135/35. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period with multiple opportunities for deep moist convection as a vigorous mid/upper trough lifts over the Northern Intermountain region and into the Northern Rockies. Strong/gusty southeasterly winds should persist this afternoon, likely turning more north/northeasterly over mainly the northern half of KS by late afternoon/evening as high pressure approaches from the north.
225 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Another hot and humid day across the TN valley with temps at 2 pm in the low 90s with near 70 dewpoints. Friday, another hot day as a flat upper ridge builds across the area.
323 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 After the last night storms system exited the region this morning, short wave ridging moved over the region. Strong southerly winds were helping to keep some of the low level moisture from pooling across the region but also was aiding in bringing additional Gulf moisture into the region. One thing that will aid as a focusing mechanism overnight, will be a cold front that will also begin to move towards the region.
With slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday, the heat headlines will be allowed to expire early this evening. Meanwhile, a rather strong trough is moving east across the Northern Plains. Although temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler Friday, strong winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with storms that form. Other storms are expected over the High Plains late Friday afternoon and evening.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will not vary much, and range from 107 to 110 degrees, staying near normal levels.
318 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Weak high pressure will drift offshore tonight.
313 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Upper ridging over the state and weakness from Arkansas extending down into SETX. Upper ridge splits and shifts west and east maintaining the break and leading to a little more moisture spreading into the area Sat.
412 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Upper level ridge that has been in place across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles for the past several days has shifted slightly to the south and east throughout the day today. Friday the ridge breaks down further to allow a cold front to enter the Panhandles.