Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
335 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northern Manitoba with broad troughing extending into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front was dropping from northeast MN into northwest WI. Clearing skies and diminishing winds with much drier air moving in will allow temps to drop into the lower 50s inland while readings remain closer to 60 near the Great Lakes.
An upper low begins to deepen across eastern British Colombia and western Alberta late Tuesday afternoon; this will serve to amplify the overall flow pattern heading into mid-week.
This pattern is not xpcted to last though as a break down in the upper ridge pattern over the SE Atlantic states allows for more of these upper disturbances to traverse SE across parts of the region. While much of the area could see showers/tstms begin to develop heading more into the afternoon hrs, the higher prob will be for locations along/east of the I-65 corridor. Outside of any rainfall, it will be another unseasonably hot/humid day, with highs climbing well into the lower/mid 90s and max heat indices perhaps reaching the 99-103F range, mainly for NW AL.
1127 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Nrn stream upper wave pushing a cold front southward through the plains this morning, with wind shift roughly along the Arkansas River as of 10z. Max temps today will run some 5-8f cooler than yesterday over the eastern mountains and plains, though that still means mid-90s for usual warm spots along the lower Ark Valley.
High pressure to our north currently will settle east of the CWA by tomorrow and remain into midweek, and lee-side troughing over the eastern Rockies/Front Range.
A broad 500 mb ridge over the southern tier of the country will continue to keep the weather relatively quiet over Central MS and the ArkLaMiss. At the surface, a high pressure ridge has slowly moved to the Atlantic coast, and the more active northern stream is beginning to spur waves across the country, bringing storm systems a little closer for tomorrow. keeping them in the low to mid 100s.
Region will be in the base of a 500mb trough this period, with the flow at that level from the northwest. At the surface the region will be between high pressure to the east southeast and a trough of low pressure just to the northwest.
In addition to this surface flow, mid-to upper level ridging over western TX continues strong enough to keep any shower activity at bay due to strong subsidence and capping. Ridging aloft continues to produce subsidence across the region; thus, any shower/storm will need to fight against this environment.
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The forecast continues to remain challenging today as a cold front, reinforced by thunderstorm outflow, continues to push through the forecast area. In the long-range, we will have to keep an eye a trough progged to move across the Northern Plains as we approach and enter the weekend. A cold front will be moving southward through the terminals with storms firing in the vicinity of the front early in the period.
307 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Weak troughing aloft will remain in place through Tue night while at the surface weak Bermuda High lingers offshore. The sea breeze and Piedmont trough will continue to be the main features of note.
Weak high pressure will continue through mid-week, with light winds turning onshore in the afternoon and diurnal convection forming along sea breeze and outflow boundaries through the afternoon and evening with scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage across the area. Highs will continue in the lower to mid 90s each afternoon with max heat index values generally around 105, and lows will be in the mid 70s to around 80. Slightly stronger ridging then builds in for the end of the week and through the weekend. Light winds and seas will continue under weak high pressure through mid-week. Slightly stronger ridging builds in for the end of the week, with E/SE winds turning onshore in the afternoon.
218 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Latest 19z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Ontario Canada into southern Iowa.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500 mb high pressure over Texas will continue to dominate in the short term. As the ridge continues to build into Tuesday subsidence should lead to a slight drying of the atmosphere marginally lowering PoPs for the remainder of the short term, though isolated sea breeze showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out.
Remnant outflow boundaries and an approaching cold front will keep storm potential going through the evening and overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. Due to increased expected cloud cover, afternoon temperatures should average a few degrees cooler than today. Late in the week and into the weekend we expect the upper ridge over the south central US to gradually build westward as an upper level trough deepen over the upper Midwest.
With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and little reduction expected due to mixing out, the heat indices will be in the 100s shortly everywhere, already starting to show up here and there. With high pressure ridging dominating the pattern at all scales today, temperatures should warm up to the mid or upper 90s (several degrees above normal for this time of year).
335 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure will build in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Broad and weak low pressure will develop over the Southeast mid to late week. Lows continued warm and muggy in the low/mid 70s interior to near 80 beaches. In the lower levels, continued SW flow on the periphery of the Bermuda high will keep ample low level moisture in place through the period, with storm trends following mainly diurnal patterns, with the greatest threat for thunderstorms coming each afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze.
This, coupled with a strengthening lee trof over ern WY, has promoted a tightening pressure gradient over nern WY and swrn SD, allowing for increased return flow across the area. LLJ develops tonight across nern WY/wrn SD ahead of a deepening low- to-midlevel trof.
911 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Today will be dry under high pressure aloft, with only isolated showers or weak t-storms over our southern mountains. A broad surface trof settles over the area which should keep wind speeds in check, but southwest wind direction will bring drier air and hot temperatures back to the area, with highs in the mid 90s. BT Upper troughing and west to southwest flow aloft is the dominate weather pattern for the rest of the week, slowly bringing cooler temperatures to the area, with highs in the low to mid 80s by the weekend. However, persist downslope flow and a couple relatively dry cold fronts will keep conditions dry across the area, including in SE Montana.
219 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure will remain near the coast through much of this week. The medium range period begins Wed night with a typical upper level ridge centered well off the SE coast and an upper trough to the E of Hudson Bay Canada. The models differ with respect to how progressive that upper trough is while moving to the SE Thu-Sat. The 12Z/09 GFS is quite a bit more progressive with the upper trough pushing off to Atlantic Canada Fri and then well offshore on Sat. This keeps the upper ridge along the Carolina/SE coast and would make it difficult for a front to sag S into the local area through the weekend.
1238 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure settles into the area today and then lingers nearby through midweek.
The low-level jet (LLJ) will setup primarily west of the I-29 corridor, bringing that area back into the mid- upper 80s with areas east of I-29 in the lower-mid 80s. Temperatures during the day will get up into the mid to upper 80s, combined with dewpoints in the 70s will cause the heat indices to get into the lower-mid 90s.
The upper ridge will remain located over the Southern Plains leaving the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the 70s. A pattern change could occur by next Monday as a cold front moves into the region.
the mid level boundary looks to lose definition as a weak 500-mb trof axis and associated vort max slide east southeast toward the CWA. confidence remains on the low side and will hold with small chance pops along/just south of the Oklahoma Kansas border after 21z.
It has lead to generally rainy to mostly cloudy conditions in the central portions of the eastern Tennessee Valley, as noted by temperatures lingering in the low 70's near Knoxville. There aren't any signs of ridging to suppress these diurnally driven showers and storms.
A surface cold front will approach from the north, and a 5H vort that is in the Kansas City region this afternoon will be moving through the Ohio Valley. Freezing levels and warm cloud depths will be very high, so locally torrential rains and gusty winds will once again be the main threats. Dew points will remain in the low to mid 70s as temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80s and at times near 90. The overall pattern looks to remain unchanged through the rest of the week with a strong upper ridge over the southern US and the main upper-level flow along the US/Canadian border. There could be a few weak impulses moving along the edge of the ridge for the end of the week but the mid/upper level winds remain weak through the period.
1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Early morning radar imagery showed a cluster of severe storms moving through the Twin Cities area, just ahead of a southwest to northeast oriented surface cold front. Any precip should exit by late afternoon/early evening with high pressure building in behind the front.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Tues morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. /issued 248 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500 mb high pressure over Texas will continue to dominate in the short term. As the ridge continues to build into Tuesday subsidence should lead to a slight drying of the atmosphere marginally lowering PoPs for the remainder of the short term, though isolated sea breeze showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out.
732 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Weak troughing aloft will remain in place through Tue night while at the surface weak Bermuda High lingers offshore. The sea breeze and Piedmont trough will continue to be the main features of note.
High will range from the lower 80s in the northwest to around 90 in the lower Scioto Valley. High pressure starts to build in from the north Tuesday night, bringing slight cooler air.
While temperatures remain near average, a jet streak aloft will descend from north of the Canadian border as an upper level low pressure area spins near the British Columbia-Alberta border. Later on Tuesday, a dry cold front associated with the Canadian low pressure system will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies.
959 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure will build in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Broad and weak low pressure will develop over the Southeast mid to late week. Lows continued warm and muggy in the low/mid 70s interior to near 80 beaches. In the lower levels, continued SW flow on the periphery of the Bermuda high will keep ample low level moisture in place through the period, with storm trends following mainly diurnal patterns, with the greatest threat for thunderstorms coming each afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze.
1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Weak troughing aloft will remain in place through Tue night while at the surface weak Bermuda High lingers offshore. The sea breeze and Piedmont trough will continue to be the main features of note.
507 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Bermuda ridge offshore.
Afternoon radar and satellite imagery shows fairly robust shower development and a few lightning strikes over the Yolla Bolly Mountains, along with more modest cumulus development starting to take shape over the higher terrain of eastern Trinity County. Weak steering flow aloft will mostly keep any showers over the higher terrain, perhaps drifting slowly eastward with time. Hot interior temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday and remain closer to seasonal normals for most of the week as broad troughing develops over the West Coast.
Return flow does develop over western South Dakota which will keep temperatures on the warmer side. The period starts off with flat mid-level ridging over the region, and decent looking mid-level trof over western Canada. That trof aloft will gradually advance and push a frontal boundary east across the region.
645 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Pleasant weather is expected throughout the short term as high pressure remains over the Northland with zonal flow in the upper levels. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s. Skies tomorrow will be mostly clear, with high temps in the low 80s. These gusty winds are a result of a pressure gradient between high pressure over southern MN and low pressure over northern Ontario.
The most likely area for redevelopment should be along the southward sagging cold front although other activity will be possible further south where some lingering outflow boundaries may remain. The frontal boundary is progged to become stationary meandering across the forecast area on Tuesday before lifting north as a warm front. Upper ridging will build over the southwest CONUS for Wed with a weak upper impulse situated over AR.
Since this feature has already pushed west of the Atlantic metro, the highest POPs will reside along the Gulf Coast and Lake Okeechobee Region this afternoon and early evening. Atlantic metro looks to miss out mostly in this pattern as the low level flow affecting the sea breeze is easterly. Deep ridging will remain prominent over the western Atlantic as an upper trough advances into the eastern states late in the period. South Florida should remain along the southwest portion of the ridge periphery. A modest increase in the pressure gradient should increase the low-level easterly flow a bit, but the increase should be modest.
559 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion Debris from convection to our south is quickly departing this afternoon, which will leave mostly clear skies for tonight as high pressure builds in from the west.
855 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure will settle to the south of our area through tonight. A cold front will approach late Tuesday into Tuesday night and remain stalled near our area through the end of the week. Warmer tonight with lows staying in the 70s. A southerly flow will continue Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Warm and moist air advection will again allow for heat index values to reach the upper 90s, maybe a few areas in the lower 100s.
713 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Bermuda ridge offshore.
Have therefore trimmed PoPs back, keeping only a slight chance along/ahead of the synoptic cold front which is now located near a KJEF>>K3LF line. This should be particularly true for portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois behind the cold front and where at least some clearing should occur. Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and tonight with very unstable conditions ahead of an approaching cold front currently extending from eastern WI southwest through northwestern MO. High temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday and close to seasonal normals.
1029 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Bermuda ridge offshore.
Overnight will be precipitation free and low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s over the plains, the 30s over the shear mountain valleys and Lake County, the 40s over the San Luis Valley, and the low to mid 50s over the San Luis Valley. A sharp moisture gradient is expected to form over Baca, Bent, Prowers, and Kiowa County as lee troughing pushes dry air into more moist air.
Redding Airport hit 110 yesterday, and has been running 3 degrees warmer for much of today.
Throughout the forecast period, the subtropical ridge will remain stretched out across the central and southern CONUS while a seasonably strong band of westerlies persists across Canada and the far northern CONUS. The ideal situation for that to happen would be if the storms were moving faster, but given the high lake/bay levels it doesn't take much displacement of water to result in flooding of low areas near the shoreline. Quiet weather is expected overnight and Tuesday as a weak anticyclone slowly shifts into the region. for 18Z TAF Issuance A cold front will exit the area this evening.
/issued 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ Current radar is showing scattered storms developing in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. An upper high to our west will expand east across much of Texas the first half of this week reducing rain chances and sending temperatures to near advisory levels with highs exceeding 100 degrees in many locations and 105 along the Pecos River. The upper high then erodes and retreats back to the west the latter half of the week to the point where we may see a weak cold front over the weekend.
Throughout the forecast period, the subtropical ridge will remain stretched out across the central and southern CONUS while a seasonably strong band of westerlies persists across Canada and the far northern CONUS. The ideal situation for that to happen would be if the storms were moving faster, but given the high lake/bay levels it doesn't take much displacement of water to result in flooding of low areas near the shoreline. Quiet weather is expected overnight and Tuesday as a weak anticyclone slowly shifts into the region. Cold front will exit far eastern Wisconsin by the beginning of the TAF period taking any lingering thunderstorm activity and associated MVFR cigs with it.
623 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Bermuda ridge offshore.
A broad upper level trough will swing across the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. This will bring a return to cooler temperatures along with an increase in late night and morning clouds to the coast and north part of the interior. Warmer weather returns towards the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the far western U.
High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to mainly range from the low to mid 90s.
The timing of that cold frontal passage into northwestern ND will likely be in the 8 PM to 10 PM CDT time frame when the boundary layer will be decoupling as the lower atmosphere cools, but winds behind the front will shift northwest and may remain gusty for a time.
1015 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 A broad area of high pressure remains over the region tonight and moves into the Atlantic on Tuesday.
614 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Latest 19z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Ontario Canada into southern Iowa.
913 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Cu field has pretty much dissipated for the evening and with light south winds, we are still seeing some warm temperatures at the 9 pm hour with readings in the lower 80s northeast to the upper 80s out west. New 12km WRF coming in and it's suggesting we could see more in the way of scattered convection across our northern zones by Tue Aftn as the upper ridge continues to break down across our region. /issued 432 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ As the upper ridge axis shifts south of our region over the next 24 hours, this will open up the northern and eastern portions of our airspace to disturbances aloft which will combine with daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon.
Chambers Flat ridging exists over the region today bringing clear/dry conditions. Temps Tuesday will jump to the low-mid 90s most places. a result of warm advection in advance of a deepening trof along the BC coast. JKL Upper troughing is still the main story into the weekend.
704 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The forecast continues to remain challenging today as a cold front, reinforced by thunderstorm outflow, continues to push through the forecast area. In the long-range, we will have to keep an eye a trough progged to move across the Northern Plains as we approach and enter the weekend.
Current dew points in that area range from the low 70s to 76.
832 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Bermuda ridge offshore.
Redding Airport hit 110 yesterday, and has been running 3 degrees warmer for much of today. Weak trough develops along the West Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, pushing most of the late day thunderstorm activity back well to the east of the forecast area by Wednesday. The trough will also result in strengthening onshore flow by this evening which will bring cooler temperatures (back to around average for this time of years for a couple of days.
Slightly warmer tomorrow compared to today with highs around 2-6 degrees higher with mid 90s forecast in the Treasure Valley. On Wednesday this slight chance will shift to southern-most Idaho, and then east and out of our area Wednesday night, as a Pacific trough pushes inland from the northwest coast. The trough will push a cold front and cloudiness across our northern zones Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Throughout the forecast period, the subtropical ridge will remain stretched out across the central and southern CONUS while a seasonably strong band of westerlies persists across Canada and the far northern CONUS. The ideal situation for that to happen would be if the storms were moving faster, but given the high lake/bay levels it doesn't take much displacement of water to result in flooding of low areas near the shoreline. Quiet weather is expected overnight and Tuesday as a weak anticyclone slowly shifts into the region.
1111 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The forecast continues to remain challenging today as a cold front, reinforced by thunderstorm outflow, continues to push through the forecast area. In the long-range, we will have to keep an eye a trough progged to move across the Northern Plains as we approach and enter the weekend.
339 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A cold front will drop through central Illinois today. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Chicago metro southwestward to near Kirksville, Missouri. High pressure will build into north-central Illinois tonight, pushing the front further southward toward the Ohio River. High pressure will dominate the weather across much of central Illinois on Wednesday.
92 flowing into the area struggles to spread inland with dry air aloft mixing down hence the low rain chances Tuesday. By Wednesday may see an uptick in coverage as upper trough swings by to the northeast and moisture pooling along the shear axis sags south into the area.