Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure across Alabama will decrease today as the main ridge center weakens and elongates to a west/east regime from Florida into the Western Atlantic. In the upper levels we have mainly zonal flow starting off with a slight west- southwest stance around a large gulf upper ridge. With our available moisture in place and weak disturbances moving through this flow, will continue with occasional rain showers across the north and west around the ridge and in step with our feed of low level moisture.
1210 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 High pressure will move off to our east tonight and Wednesday.
300 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 High pressure slides offshore of the New England coast through today.
122 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A cool wedge of high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Current temperature readings are likely to be the eventual lows overnight as the warmer southerly push will result in rising temperatures after midnight in most locations with a warm front drawing northward from the Gulf.
This low level southerly flow and persistent warm air advection should keep overnight low temperatures from falling too low, generally in the mid teens to low 20s. There is still some indication in the high resolution guidance of fog potential overnight, and given moisture advection and some snowmelt due to the sun today, went ahead and added patchy mention.
1201 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A trough of low pressure will result in increasing rain chances today.
439 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Deep ridging persists across the region, with prevailing moderate to fresh easterly breezes and above-average temperatures and humidity across the Florida Keys. A deep layer mean anticyclone will vacillate east and west across the subtropics, between Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. This setup will maintain zonal westerlies aloft and zonal easterlies in the low levels, with weak large- scale subsidence persisting while the storm tracks remain far to the north.
A northward push of Gulf moisture in progress as southwest gradient organizes over the southern and central US in response to western US height falls and high pressure situated over the East Coast.
223 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 Near zonal flow has developed across the northern Plains, with the next upper trough now pushing into the Pacific NW. Portions of the northern and eastern foothills of the Black Hills may even see temps in the low 50s as downsloping winds enhance warming.
Upper level ridge also sinking southward further into the Gulf and weakening slightly, though it is expected to strengthen and shift flow more northwesterly late tonight. Isolated showers are still possible over the coastal waters where very weak trough development is possible, but elsewhere should remain dry. Wind will become light and variable tonight as the high settles in across the area, and overnight lows in the mid 50s are expected.
Add on full sunshine and a favorable southwest wind direction for warming to the bare ground and see no reason why what the ECMWF has been showing for highs out there for days does not happen, which is places out by Madison and Montevideo get into the lower 50s.
The high will then drift down the southeastern U. coast and allow a warm front to develop and move northward through the middle Atlantic states through mid to late week. Aloft, high pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico, ridging northward through the deep south and into the Carolinas, with North Carolina on the northern fringe of the ridge. Overnight lows will be fairly mild, in the low to mid 50s.
The past few hourly runs of the ECAM and the 0Z ECMWF are much warmer today, especially in northeast SD and western MN.
There also is fog potential as well, with the warmer air moving over the snowpack.
314 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures will be some be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Tuesday with highs in the 60s.
Currently, a cold front was situated west-east across central Alberta/Saskatchewan. Today the cold front moves south, entering northwestern north Dakota around mid-afternoon, moving into southern ND later this evening, and exiting into South Dakota after midnight. Highs should range from the low and mid 30s north to upper 30s and lower 40s across southern ND. Timing for the cold front and snow chances is a bit slower in the latest model runs.
336 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 A mid-level trough is noted just off the coast of southern California with southwest flow over most of the southern and central Plains. Southwest surface winds this afternoon will aid in warmer temperatures today with mid-60s still expected near central and east central Kansas.
Rainfall amounts will generally range from a quarter to half inch, with the highest amounts over central Kentucky.
327 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A trough of low pressure will result in increasing rain chances today.
This snowmelt will load the lower boundary layer with moisture, and is expected to lead to some fog development tonight, mainly along and south of I-90.
301 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts multi-stream troughs off the Pacific NW and CA coasts with a downstream belt of confluent mid-level flow from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes. In the low levels, west-southwest winds will develop today in response to the progression of a weak surface cyclone from Saskatchewan into northern MN.
835 PM PST Tue Feb 13 2018 An upper level low off the Southern California coast will move east on Wednesday, renewing the chance for showers again through Wednesday evening.
Based on temperatures yesterday exceeding expectations, I will go along with guidance in even warmer temperatures this period.
After this happens, main item of note today will be the warm temperatures as most locations should warm into the lower 60s by mid/late afternoon. Quick look at 850-hPa anomaly data suggest todays 850 temps will be 1-2 standard deviations above normal, with these increasing even further tomorrow ahead of tomorrow afternoon's cold front.
This is a low confidence forecast given the trends of the past 24 hours not being well handled by the models and abnormally warm conditions likely overwhelming the climate aspects of the low cloud process modelling.
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM/ An upper level low pressure system off the southern California coast will begin to move inland on Wednesday causing the flow aloft to strengthen over the panhandles.
1111 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 A weak wave of low pressure will move across the area tonight with another weak wave moving up the ohio Valley on Wednesday.
Temperatures to remain fairly mild overnight with plenty of cloud cover in place with recovery into the low to mid 50s (pretty similar to Wednesday) for Thursday.
Skies will clear from west to east tonight as upper ridging builds into the northern plains. The next system will be a trough digging into the Great Basin Thursday night.
723 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. Atmosphere ahead of trough is not overly unstable, either at the surface or aloft, but there may be enough shear to allow for, already developed convection, to be maintained through the evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence in stronger winds is low, but hail is a possibility as the freezing level is reachable and lies within the unstable layer aloft. Overnight lows will be mild with cloud cover and continued WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms.
A weak ridge of high pressure will build south from Canada on Thursday, but skies will remain mostly cloudy.
757 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front draped across the northern Ohio Valley in an east- west orientation will stall out this evening before lifting back northward tonight as a warm front.
701 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front will sag southeastward toward the Ozarks region tonight and across the area on Thursday.
Surface analysis has weak low pressure in the Panhandle so expect southerly winds to continue tonight/tomorrow. Upper level ridging should be stronger so only a very slight chance at a shower or storm.
A cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast today, and was oriented from KJYR to KPHG at 20Z. Precipitation chances return at the end of the workweek as an upper trough over the Rockies emerges onto the central and southern plains.
Winds should then veer west behind a cold front later Thursday morning into the afternoon. 12Z NAM appears to concentrate a little too much of the thunderstorms tonight well north, along the 850 mb warm front. HRRR is similar, though it does have a little more showers/thunderstorms near the warm front. The GFS has more showers/thunderstorms after the 850 mb warm front lifts north this evening, which is preferred. Low tornado threat near the warm front just after midnight and early morning, mainly southwest of Madison. A wind threat will exist with any morning thunderstorms with the cold front. Initially expect a stratocumulus shied to move in behind the cold front.
838 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Upper low continues to move east this evening with precipitation coming to an end across the far east. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to 30s across the lower elevations overnight. Upper low continues to move away from the area with precipitation expected to end over eastern zones early this evening. Brief ridging will bring a dry day to the area Thursday with temperatures in the 60s.
Temps are also running a bit cooler than previously forecast, especially in areas that got rain earlier so they were brought in line with current conditions. On Thursday, a cold front will approach from the NW in the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70's in the cloudier areas of srn IL to the lower 80's in parts of west KY. On Thursday night, the cold front will exit western KY after midnight. The period will begin with a cold front off to our south over the Gulf Coast states.
Negatively tilted trof makes a slow passage through Eastern Washington and North Idaho during this time interval with eventual exit via an earthward path through North Idaho Thursday night. As such the highest amount of rainfall, about one half inch, is expected in that general area tonight. Momentum mixing brought about by the passing trof expected to make for breezy/gusty conditions during some portion of the early evening today and again tomorrow afternoon and evening. With the cold trof in place for much of this interval forecast temperatures are generally on the cool side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
Showers in the vicinity of Abilene are possible tomorrow evening beginning around 00Z as a weak cold front moves south toward that airport. An associated surface cold front will drop south towards the area on Thursday, reaching far northern portions of the Big Country by late afternoon or early evening. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with lows in the lower 60s. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The 12Z models indicate that the cold front will move south into the northwestern part of our area Thursday evening and early Thursday night before stalling.
One short wave trough was leaving the east this afternoon with a second stronger short wave trough moving in from the west. Otherwise, the low clouds will be slow to move out into Thursday across the region.
906 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 The cold front has moved into the base of the foothills bringing gusty ENE winds to the plains and Denver Metro. Lingering snow showers over the high elevations will come to an end over the next few hours as dryer flow moves in with increased subsidence.
940 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front draped across the northern Ohio Valley in an east- west orientation will lift northward overnight as a warm front.
A trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland across California tonight, though the coastal low clouds and fog will be less extensive.
A cold front will approach the Mid-South late Thursday. Thus, PoPs ramp up by late afternoon and into the evening hours as the cold front enters the CWA. but likely a bit cooler if your underneath a good downpour.
Expecting thunderstorms to develop rapidly along the cold front around 5pm for Central Kansas, as it continues to move southward and cooler mid-level air approaches from the west to weaken the cap. Daytime highs will be cooler than Wednesday and closer to seasonal averages.
An upper level trough will bring showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.
Precipitation will decrease in coverage heading into Thursday, as high pressure builds across the region.
On Thursday, a cold front will approach from the NW in the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70's in the cloudier areas of srn IL to the lower 80's in parts of west KY. On Thursday night, the cold front will exit western KY after midnight. The period will begin with a cold front off to our south over the Gulf Coast states.
Some spots have broken into the low 50s, but for the most part, most locations are still in the mid to upper 40s. Thus, sfc temps should rise into the low to mid 50s by this evening.
1008 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
High pressure will then bring lighter winds and warmer days through the weekend. Thursday afternoon will see a trough move across the area. High pressure will move over Arizona this weekend with light winds and warmer temperatures.
The atmosphere has continued to destabilize as temperatures south of the warm front warmed into the 70s.
Current VFR conditions will deteriorate late Tonight into Thursday as showers and thunderstorms spread into the area in association with a cold front. /Issued 428 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/ A windy, warm and humid day across the region with warm air advection ramping up ahead of a cold front moving across western Kansas.
917 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure continues to dominate, however, a weak inverted trough just offshore has produced an area of cloudiness and a few showers over our offshore Florida waters.
VFR conditions will worsen as we move through Tonight and into Thursday as a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms move into the region. Narrow band of thunderstorms across KS along the associated cold front continues to sag south and southeast this evening.
Evening update: Satellite this evening shows an upper trough off the coast with the Inland NW in a southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough.
633 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 One short wave trough was leaving the east this afternoon with a second stronger short wave trough moving in from the west. Otherwise, the low clouds will be slow to move out into Thursday across the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 84 62 81 / 20 30 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 82 62 79 / 20 30 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 61 78 / 20 30 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 78 57 76 / 30 50 30 70.
Warmer temperatures return on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
A cold front pushes into our area Thursday night, bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms.
802 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure off of Atlantic Canada will move further away from the coast tonight and Thursday. A lee-side trof will setup across the area tomorrow.
959 PM MST Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, keeping the storm track to our north.
The active and wet trough that brought wetting rains to Northeast Montana slowly continues on east this evening. Thursday and Thursday night an upper ridge brings about a return to mild and dry conditions. The ridge will linger along the MT/Dakota border Thursday Night as the next upper trough moves into Western Montana and the base of the trough digs south into Colorado.
A surface warm front extended east across southern Iowa. South of this warm front, the surface based CAPES have climbed into the 1 to 2K j/kg range. The models continue to show that elevated supercells will develop north of the warm front and ahead of the approaching short wave. However with the warm front so far south, confidence is not high that this will occur.
Expect temperatures to remain above normal with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Going into the weekend, an upper low is forecast to drop southeastward from the Rockies toward the Middle Mississippi Valley.
913 PM PDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Shower chances into Thursday then dry and warmer for the weekend. Trough is currently along the coast with a healthy band of showers and isolated thunderstorms from Crescent City to Eureka.
Expect a dry period overnight tonight with lows in the lower 60s. For Thursday, a cold front will approach the area late in the day. Clusters of storms along and just ahead of the cold front will enter our region Thu evening and move ESE through the area Thu night. Highs on Thu should reach the lower 80s with lows Thu night ranging from the lower 50s over S.
918 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weak low pressure will track across Quebec tonight pulling a cold front across the region. The front will stall across southern New England on Thursday as a weak area of high pressure builds by to our north.
Another relatively mild overnight is expected, but tomorrows highs behind the front will be notably cooler and featuring a north-south gradient.
1215 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms.
1205 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
High pressure across northeast North Dakota will likely limit the northward extent of the precipitation area.
A cold front will move southeast across much of Oklahoma and into the KSPS area of Texas between 00Z this evening and 00Z Thursday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front in Kansas this afternoon and evening. Thursday evening and night, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to form as a trough approaches the southern Plains.
Light rain has reached Fargo however returns from there south to the border not very impressive so will not be increasing pops which at this time seem on the high end. Temperatures to remain fairly mild overnight with plenty of cloud cover in place with recovery into the low to mid 50s (pretty similar to Wednesday) for Thursday.
933 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Light rain has reached Fargo however returns from there south to the border not very impressive so will not be increasing pops which at this time seem on the high end. Temperatures to remain fairly mild overnight with plenty of cloud cover in place with recovery into the low to mid 50s (pretty similar to Wednesday) for Thursday.
920 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Low pressure just off the Carolina coast will dissipate tonight. A trof of low pressure will develop along the coastal plain Thursday afternoon.
925 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. Overnight lows will be mild with cloud cover and continued WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms.
726 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
617 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A strong cold front will move through around daybreak Thursday morning bringing strong northerly winds and possible MVFR CIGS. Another relatively mild overnight is expected, but tomorrows highs behind the front will be notably cooler and featuring a north-south gradient.
An associated surface cold front will drop south towards the area on Thursday, reaching far northern portions of the Big Country by late afternoon or early evening. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with lows in the lower 60s. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The 12Z models indicate that the cold front will move south into the northwestern part of our area Thursday evening and early Thursday night before stalling.
In the middle and upper levels(700-250 mb)latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 pm, shows that the southern stream of the upper jet at 250 mb is split by a regional scale upper trough parked over the Western Gulf of Mexico, with some reflection of this at 500 mb. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. (Surface to 700 mb),latest IR imagery overlaid with marine and surface observations as of 900 pm details 1022-1025 mb surface ridging located east of Savannah out into the West Central Atlantic. The 00Z evening at Key West illustrated gentle to fresh easterlies from the surface to 850 mb, with limited moisture in the lower to mid troposphere with columnar PWAT at 1. Overnight, aforementioned western atlantic ridging will build slightly, to around 1025 mb across the same area.
We will still have some low chance POPs for this evening along the frontal boundary that is expected to shift into northern Illinois as low pressure, currently over northern Kansas moves into Iowa later this evening. Most of the high resolution convective allowing models suggest what is left of the showers and storms over west central Illinois will track east with the cold front during the morning with redevelopment expected to take place along and especially east of the I-55 corridor Thursday afternoon. Mixed Layer Capes in the 1500-1800 J/KG range tomorrow afternoon just ahead of the cold front with 0-6km shear values of 40-50 kts so the potential still exists for isolated strong to severe storms in east central through southeast Illinois through late afternoon/early evening.
With the trough depressing further southeast, ridging will return to the region through the day tomorrow, with tranquil conditions expected. Moisture remains trapped in the lowest levels, generally 5 to 6000 feet, so some cloud cover will bubble up again tomorrow, but vertical development is not expected to be enough to produce showers.
The cold front associated with the low moving through the upper Great Lakes will sweep east across our area Thursday, likely causing thunderstorms.
Expect a dry period overnight tonight with lows in the lower 60s. For Thursday, a cold front will approach the area late in the day. Clusters of storms along and just ahead of the cold front will enter our region Thu evening and move ESE through the area Thu night. Highs on Thu should reach the lower 80s with lows Thu night ranging from the lower 50s over S. The aforementioned cold front will settle near the KY/TN border for Fri providing rain chances to mainly south central KY but a 20-30% chance of rain will still be possible as far north as the Ohio River and portions of southern IN during the day Fri. The cooler post-frontal airmass will limit highs to the mid 60s to low 70s.
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front will sag southeastward toward the Ozarks region tonight and across the area on Thursday.
This warm front tilted poleward with height, and an area of elevated showers and thunderstorms was moving across the forecast area producing a cool, light to moderate rain. Supercells storms will quickly become severe across Iowa, and a few of these storms could propagate north of the warm front and produce a threat for large hail across the southern part of our forecast area near I-90. Cold air will rush in on Thursday as the parent cyclone quickly matures. Looking ahead, the weekend looks dry as high pressure builds across the region.