Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold upper trough centered across eastern Utah will exit to the east this afternoon. The decaying center of the upper low that brought widespread snow to much of Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight is reforming across Colorado late this morning. Up north heavy snowfall persists, driven largely by deep layer warm advection wrap around flow on the back side of the decaying upper low.
After a chilly start to the morning, temperatures will moderate up to the lower 50s this afternoon.
Southern portion of this trough near the four corners will be what gives us active weather today. At mid levels the models tended to be too far east/south with the incoming trough. The lower visibilities may spill over to the next row of counties. However, rainfall is currently moving in and should mix out the lower visibilities. Temperatures are warmer than yesterday so kept the phase as liquid.
Temperatures may warm to near freezing again in the low elevations, but guidance shows strong differences about this event.
The latest MAV/MET and ECS temp guidance for the region is in decent agreement with the ECMWF showing a slight warmer bias versus the NAM and the GFS. Will lean closer to the warmer side of guidance through tomorrow. The numerical guidance maintain some slgt chc pops through Mon as a cold front sweeps through central Texas tomorrow.
Southwest flow begins to strengthen overnight behind a departed warm front, resulting in breezy conditions across the higher elevations. Overnight lows will be warmer than our normal highs for this time of year.
The big trough to nudge TSTMS our way late in cycle and into Mon p. Warm front which was stalled across the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas into Southwest Arkansas moved back to the north overnight with warm sector conditions now prevalent across our entire CWA. Weak isentropic lift in the lowest 3kft is helping to generate pockets of light rain and/or drizzle across our western half this morning with some also noted across portions of North Central and Northeast Louisiana.
258 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Busy forecast again today with strong low pressure across the Central Plains lifting north tonight. Broad upper level trof will keep northwesterly flow over the area through the area.
Temperatures are right around freezing within the freezing rain area which may limit ice accumulation across some areas, but there will be areas where surfaces remain below freezing with significant ice accums.
Warm front which was stalled across the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas into Southwest Arkansas moved back to the north overnight with warm sector conditions now prevalent across our entire CWA. Weak isentropic lift in the lowest 3kft is helping to generate pockets of light rain and/or drizzle across our western half this morning with some also noted across portions of North Central and Northeast Louisiana. CIGs may actually continue to gradually lower as the low levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten. More robust convection ahead of a strong cold front will move into the area after 26/06z and will slowly advance southeast through the end of the period.
However, the low pressure system will be moving northward, taking most of the moisture across the east with it resulting in central Nebraska remaining in the dry slot. Low pressure will lift north of the region by Monday morning allowing high pressure to return. Temperatures remain cooler for Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 20s across the north to the low 40s south of I-80.
308 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 The high temperature so far at Key West International Airport is 82F, which also is the current reading. The low temperature this morning was a balmy 75F, yielding an average temperature of about 78. A robust, deep layer mean ridge will support a sprawling surface anticyclone over the southeastern United States and western North Atlantic.
206 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 The vigorous mid/upper trough responsible for our windy and stormy weather conditions will move rapidly north and east across the Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley area by early Monday morning. As high pressure settles over the area Mon night, radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the low to mid 20s. A mid/upper trough is progged to dig over the Central Great Basin/Southwest States as we move into the weekend bringing an increasing chance for precipitation to the area late in the weekend.
1224 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 TEXT A warm front is lifting through northern Arkansas, with improvement to MVFR flight categories behind the front. Guidance suggests LIFR conditions will return to all terminals tonight before a cold front, and associated SHRA/TSRA, arrives in western Arkansas late this evening. A warm front was subjectively analyzed at 09z from just north of Monticello, to El Dorado, to just north of Mena.
1234 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure centered over Lake Huron will move off to the east today. This will allow a warm front to lift north across the region tonight. Near record warm temperatures will occur on Monday before a cold front moves through Monday night. Scattered rain showers associated with the incoming warm front currently extend from south-central Kentucky to central Illinois. Temperatures trends were adjusted slightly, mainly to slow the rise over the next few hours, with max temps a degree or so cooler than the previous forecast in some locations. Warm front will lift across the entire area overnight. A band of showers will develop along a pre-frontal trough and move southeast through the afternoon. Progress of the precipitation will slow into Monday night until a cold front overtakes the pre-frontal trough.
Strong upper level trough was located over and north of the Four Corners region early this morning and progressing fairly rapidly to the east and northeast. A warm frontal boundary was just south of the Oklahoma border and the strong moist advection had resulted in widespread dense fog over much of western Kansas north of the front, except for portions of far southwest Kansas. Have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning and extended north and east to include areas from around Dighton through Dodge City and Ashland. Given the strong downslope flow, have increased temperatures a few degrees over parts of the area more in line with the warmer MAV MOS guidance. Under clear skies, low temperatures should fall back into the low to mid 20s in most areas.
Sfc temps will likely hold steady due to the sustained winds and cloud cover then rise as winds turn more southerly with passing warm front. Second surge of precip arrives ahead of cold front later in the night. Cold front will punch east resulting in the falling temperature trend throughout much of the day.
1121 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Today: Early this morning scattered light showers developed just north of a warm front that is draped across Northern OK. A deep negatively-tilted upper-deck trof that has been discussed for about a week is still expected to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it surges northeast from AZ & NM to the Nebraska/SD border. With an equally intense surface cyclone situated over Eastern CO, the lower-deck southwest flow will increase considerably to not only scour the fog but enable richer moisture to continue surging further into the Central Plains. As the vicious cyclone crosses the Nebraska/SD border this afternoon, a Pacific cold front will surge east/southeast into KS.
331 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Early this afternoon a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a Pacific cold front was pushing east and should reach the western counties of the CWA after 19Z. The deep upper trough was lifting north-northeast across southwest NE. However, most of the higher resolution models show the instability remaining rather low across much of the CWA. Monday, will be cooler as westerly winds become northwest. Though high temperatures will be above normal with highs in the lower to mid 40s.
A cold front moved through the region this morning, resulting in gusty west winds areawide. /issued 411 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016/ Upper trough passing over the Great Basin early this morning. This trough will quickly lift NE passing over the Rockies later in the day reaching the plains tonight and on to the Canadian border by early Monday. Will continue the High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mtns in effect Eddy Co. Temperatures will be warmer than usual for December with highs mainly in the 60s.
Temperatures will hold nearly steady in the 30s today but will surge warmer overnight after a warm front lifts through the region. A cold front will move through the area on Monday with showers expected.
Early this Christmas morning, a warm front was stretched west to east, just south of Interstate 40. By mid morning, the warm front will be lifting north of TN. South winds and breaks in the clouds will bring warm, possibly record setting, temperatures in the lower 70s for most locations. A cold front will be approaching, so the chance for showers will return, especially late Monday.
The associated cold front is predicted to stall north of the CWA Monday.
A cold front is moving east through central Oklahoma this afternoon.
A very dynamic system is beginning to take shape as 09Z water vapor imagery shows the base of an upper trough beginning to lift out from the four corners region with a negative tilt. The falling low pressure is causing strong low level warm air advection into the central plains with surface OBs showing moisture surging north through TX and OK with the warm front across northern OK. While the warm front remains to the south of the forecast area, patchy dense fog should linger as moisture advects into the relatively cooler airmass. Highs today are expected to make it into the lower and middle 60s just based on warm air advection.
These strong winds combined with the low RH and warm temps will lead to increase wildfire potential. /issued 528 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016/ IFR conditions are quickly lifting to MVFR south of a warm front which was near the KS-OK border this morning. /issued 355 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016/ Visibility is increasing south of the warm front with dense fog left only in northern Oklahoma.
1243 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front lifts northeast tonight.
239 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front will bring a chance of light showers early Monday morning continuing through much of the day. Temperatures could be cold enough Monday morning for a brief period of freezing rain and a winter weather advisory has been issued for the area.
208 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front lifts northeast tonight.
300 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 A strong low pressure system will continue occluding over the central plains tonight. Once the warm front has lifted to the north, southeasterly winds will increase and gust to 20-30 mph at times. SHRA/TSRA will be forced by the system's cold front and supported by large-scale ascent and modest H7-H5 lapse rates. The persistent low clouds and fog/mist which have been in place for the last few days will quickly clear out behind the cold front, and most locations should see partly sunny skies tomorrow.
316 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Warm front drifting ever so slowly north across the region, keeping frontal fog across our north KY and south IN counties this hour. In fact, there is a spread of 25 degrees from south to north across our forecast area! As the warm front pushes north this evening, it will pull the rain chances and fog north with it, to north of our region by early/mid evening. The dryness will be brief however as a vigorous cold front, now over the Central Plains, approaches our area.
Temps have climbed into the lower and in some spots middle/upper 80s this afternoon.
Large Ridge aloft will probably still act in suppressing any possible T-storm activity and have removed from the forecast for now.
So it seem likely that the line of convection will remain in tact to be just east of the Highway 75 corridor by 00Z.
A low pressure in the eastern Pacific has brought high clouds to part of SW Oregon and NW California. As this low pressure moves further to the south, expected the high clouds to move out of the area. Most valleys saw below freezing temperatures overnight except for Medford and Grants Pass where low clouds had formed earlier in the evening and kept temperatures from falling much below freezing.
129 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Monday night. A warm front will develop just south of the region tonight.
A heavy freezing drizzle was falling at Bismarck at 17z. Forecast was updated to include freezing drizzle across all southern zones for this morning as the low stratus deck was producing that. Very light freezing drizzle that was reported earlier this morning in the eastern part of the state worked its way west towards Bismarck, and was observed at the office. The models have been fairly consistent in bringing the warmer air into the southern James River Valley, and there is an Ice Storm Warning posted for LaMoure, McIntosh and Dickey counties for today into tonight. The lowest amounts are in the southern James River Valley due to the warmer air. Winds will increase this afternoon and especially tonight as the low passes.
Mid-level circulation around the low will allow precip to wrap around the low and push back into the I-15 corridor and eastward this morning.
The cold front will pass the sites tonight resulting in improving conditions, at all but KFSM. So it seem likely that the line of convection will remain in tact to be just east of the Highway 75 corridor by 00Z.
08z/2am surface analysis shows 995mb low over Colorado with warm front extending southeastward into Oklahoma/Arkansas. The low is progged to deepen to around 982mb as it tracks into South Dakota by early this evening, gradually pulling the warm front northward into central Illinois. Powerful storm system will continue tracking northeastward across the Upper Midwest tonight, with trailing cold front not reaching central Illinois until Monday morning. Thin line of convection is still expected to develop ahead of the slowly approaching cold front, so have increased PoPs to likely/categorical after midnight. Before the boundary passes, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s east of I-55. Further west, readings will fall into the 40s during the afternoon as a cooler airmass arrives.
A pacific cold front trailing the parent low pressure had shifted eastward across Central Kansas to Osage/Pawnee counties in Northeast Oklahoma and extended southwest through Southwest Oklahoma and Western Texas. The exception could be any convectively driven winds focused along/just out ahead of the cold front as gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range were reported over Western/Central Oklahoma earlier today. the cold front will continue to slide east through the CWA. Behind the pacific cold front.
Expect the cold front currently over the high plains to stall well before moving into the local area. This will keep us planted firmly in the warm, moist air mass until a much deeper trough begins to dig into the central and eastern CONUS late in the week.
258 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 We have seen quite the transition in weather across the Missouri Ozarks over the last 12 hours as a warm front continues to lift northeast across the area. A trailing surface front/trough will be the focus of a thin line of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight as this feature tracks east across the area. We have gone on the high side of guidance with highs expected to reach the lower to middle 60s over most areas.
123 PM PST Sun Dec 25 2016 A low pressure system will pass to the west, brushing the Central coast late tonight into Monday morning possibly bringing light rain to the area.
247 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Early afternoon weather has been strongly tied to warm front and pockets of clear skies. Warm front currently aligned WNW-ESE from STJ to Moberly. Instability will generally remain as-is or slowly increase during the remainder of the afternoon in areas south of the warm front, but most locations should realize AOB 500 J/kg of SB/MU CAPE. While enough elevated instability is expected to maintain some semblance of the convective line through the entire CWA, thanks in part to strong linear forcing, there remains limited instability in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. This window should quickly end by 02Z as instability weakens and the low- levels decouple. Large clearing pocket upstream, south of warm frontal boundary, provides a more optimistic forecast for terminals.
1105 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Warm front lifts across the area this afternoon and tonight.
The low level flow will remain strong enough through Monday to keep the sea breeze pinned near the coast, if it develops at all, so we should therefore see temperatures warm up into the 80s even close to the coast with the possibility of a few more record highs.
1012 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Forecast was updated to include freezing drizzle across all southern zones for this morning as the low stratus deck was producing that. Very light freezing drizzle that was reported earlier this morning in the eastern part of the state worked its way west towards Bismarck, and was observed at the office. The models have been fairly consistent in bringing the warmer air into the southern James River Valley, and there is an Ice Storm Warning posted for LaMoure, McIntosh and Dickey counties for today into tonight. The lowest amounts are in the southern James River Valley due to the warmer air. Winds will increase this afternoon and especially tonight as the low passes.
Light snow has been falling throughout the morning as this low pressure system continues to track north and east toward the area as expected. Have had a couple of reports of light freezing drizzle along parts of the North Dakota border, so added that into the forecast this morning. Latest 00z and 06z model guidance continues to support intermittent snow during the day today before steadier snow approaches from the southeast and expanding northwest this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks into the Dakotas. Additionally, as low pressure tracks downstream, expect a tight pressure gradient to set up over these locations helping to drive gusty north winds. Given some degree of uncertainty on the westward extent of the highest snowfall rates, opted to leave Daniels, W.
304 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Main effects to our sensible weather will come with the coming and going of a cold front Monday. A warm front continues to lift north across the region this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase later tonight ahead of the next cold front pushing east toward the region.
The center of a sharp upper trough responsible for this front was carving across the Four Corners region before daybreak and will lift rapidly northeast before reaching the Nebraska Panhandle by early afternoon. Opted to undercut post- frontal dewpoints in accord with some of the drier high resolution guidance, which also plays into deeper mixing and warmer high temps.
Expect winter driving conditions through at least this morning in the high country, make sure to check road conditions before venturing out.
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 A cold front will move through the region during the afternoon and evening hours with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it by afternoon and progressing east into this evening. Cooler and much less humid air will arrive starting tonight and linger into the start of the new work week. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the lower 60s. Challenging forecast in store with regards to convective chances into this evening ahead of a strong cold front and seasonably strong upper level trough. Second round will be pre- frontal trough currently firing convection from far eastern Iowa to western Illinois. sufficient forcing will exist on the cold front with little in the way of scouring of moisture. Cooler and less humid air will begin to move in.
230 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 High pressure will remain over the area today then move east into the Maritimes tonight into Sunday.
332 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Upper trough axis is moving eastward across the eastern Dakotas early this morning. Showers continue to move across the CWA with the highest concentration over the eastern CWA. The upper trough will move into MN later this afternoon, with weak instability residing across eastern SD and west central MN. This is a cool high pressure system, and if ideal radiational conditions set up, we'll be looking at some rather chilly morning lows come Sunday morning.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected today with the highest coverage near DHN in the afternoon. Deep layer high pressure was settled across the southern CONUS and northern Gulf Coast today. An upper level short wave trough will dig into the upper Mississippi Valley Saturday and swing eastward across the Great Lakes through Sunday night. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the mid 70s.
Later today, will see surface cold front approach from the west. Front will encounter plentiful moisture in the profile, with surface based TDs in the lower 70s as aforementioned.
325 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Upper level trough digging into the plains this morning with a lead wave now lifting out over the upper Mississippi valley and the main energy with the trough over south central South Dakota. Cold front and associated storms are tracking most closely to the timing of recent runs of the ECMWF, thus will use this as a general basis for this morning's forecast.
339 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Showers were moving across the region early this morning in advance of a cold front that was moving to the south across eastern Kansas. The cold front will make its way through the region this morning, pushing through the area by mid day. Cloud cover will quickly diminish in the wake of the front with cooler and drier air moving into the area for this afternoon and through tonight.
650 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. A cold front will move into the area Sunday night. Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of the cold front through Sunday.
A cold front will bring better rain chances tonight into Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase today in southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Area of low-level convergence would likely place a better chance for afternoon showers and storms over the ridges, so highest PoPs will be confined to those locations. The main player remains the mid-level trough moving from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, and it's leading cold front.
1142 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion Satellite imagery this evening shows a NW flow aloft across the Northern Rockies and MT downstream of a large upper level ridge across the eastern Pacific. At the surface, high pressure is sliding SE across WY with generally light winds across N-central and SW MT, becoming southerly later tonight into Saturday. High pressure ridging along the Pacific Coast gradually moves eastward through the weekend, bringing us mostly fair skies and dry conditions on Sat/Sun. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue tomorrow, keeping temperatures in the low 80s, but become more westerly on Sun as the ridge axis moves east of the Continental Divide.
Little change in the wet pattern with a cold front on approach with more Tstms for anytime Saturday into early Sunday with Northerly sfc and low level winds under SW flow aloft.
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 The forecast area is currently situated along the southern edge of westerlies with a broad upper-level trough over the Plains. As the larger trough shifts into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, an area of enhanced convective activity will be focused along a weak front that will traverse the CWA from the North in the morning to the central and southern parts of the area during the afternoon and evening.