Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MOISTURE RAMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO OUR WEST HEADS EAST. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WHILE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FAR WEST.
THERE WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA.
BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DECENT DELTA BREEZES CONTINUING ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA OF MID CLOUDS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS AND IT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THETA-E AXIS NOSES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS LATER TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LATE THIS AFTN THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAD SHIFTED INTO NW NM WHERE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR/TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH SUN AS A STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP DATIME PRECIP CHCS VERY LOW. MODERATE SOUTHERLY BL FLOW WILL PERSIST AS SURFACE TROFFING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
Much cooler tomorrow for western Montana. A significant change begins to occur tonight as a backdoor cold front will move into the area from Canada. This cold front will bring a dramatic shift in the wind direction to more of an east or northeast direction, and could become quite gusty at times, especially across northwest Montana. The front will bring a significant cooling trend to particularly western Montana, where temperatures on Sunday will run on average 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Saturday. Those recreating in Glacier National Park should be prepared for an abrupt weather change, with much cooler temperatures, winds, and likely showers/thunderstorms.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 30 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST ALBERTA DRIVING THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IS GOING TO MOVE DUE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF.
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF.
FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER.
414 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF.
300 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY AND TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS MODELS SHOWING NO UPSTREAM H5 TROUGHS AND A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SE MICHIGAN AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE INBOUND UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. LACK OF FORCING AND A STRONG 700MB INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WHILE MIXING TO 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C SUPPORTS HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 80S.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT A BIT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA.
337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN. WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH PLATTES CWA. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON SUN AND I SHOWED CENTRAL SECTIONS COOLER AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP (SIMILAR TO TODAY).
A RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 300 MILES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALLOWING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD. UPPER DISTURBANCES BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AREAS WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
326 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery under a northwest flow aloft. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2- 4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD FRONT. HIGH POPS WARRANTED ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN TODAY. WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DESPITE THE WARMER CONDITIONS. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES.
HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENT UPPER LOW CENTER IS DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS. CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. BUT A SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TRANSITION ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S EAST.
308 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER THOUGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SUNDAY DAYTIME LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HOLDING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REINFORCE ITSELF OVER OUR REGION.
306 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA WILL SHARPEN UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS. HAVE TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL BE LACKING A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AND THERE WILL BE LINGERING HAZE IN PLACE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FARTHER EAST THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER AND THE MIXING NOT A STRONG.
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH NAM VALUES CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
254 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A NICE 4TH OF JULY NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS AT DUSK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL IL DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR TODAY.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW AND COLD FRONT. UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO MONTANA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM.
There is a little MVFR cigs other the higher clouds that may affect the southern terminals, but it would very brief if it does. (Sunday and Sunday Night) The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for convective development.
WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWED MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A RIDGE ALOFT. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF KANSAS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE INTERIOR IN THE COMING WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY DRIFTING SW BUT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER CLOSER TO THE CA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. MOST OF THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
This is allowing somewhat drier air to filter into the area early this morning, with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 60s, under clearing skies. A very isolated shower/thunderstorm or two may be possible this afternoon across the higher/more complex terrain along the Arkansas state line, but the vast majority of the day should be dry. Convection will likely be weakening as it moves into the area, with much of the activity dissipating by late morning as the low level jet weakens.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST.
OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH BRIEFLY DISRUPTED THE WEEKEND ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NW INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OFF THE CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NNW OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MTNS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO OREGON AND SW IDAHO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ROTATING INTO NORTH-CNTRL CANADA WHILE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD NRN IDAHO.
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT OVER OUR AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID STATE SPINS OVERHEAD.
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST COMPARED TO TODAY IN THE LOW LEVELS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST AND RESULT IN VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE RIDGING EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A HEALTHY CAP AT 750 MB AT 18Z.
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TO ARKANSAS, WHICH HAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT LIES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR OUR CWA NORTHERN BORDER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30 KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN CANADA APPROACHES. ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THE INTERIOR SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZES REACH INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON.
A 500 MB LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM CNTL TENN TOWARDS OHIO WHILE A BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS CNTL AND SOUTH FL. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE W TO SW FLOW AS THE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday. The center of this ridge will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward to TX and NM.
158 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS.
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z. A SHORT WAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MN THIS EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE A SFC TROF BISECTS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BASICALLY NORTH OF U. AN H85 LLJ INTERSECTS THE TROF AS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ARRIVES WITH AN H25 JET MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAREST THIS JUNCTION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY. TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.
WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VCSH AND ISOLD TSRA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE TROF AXIS.
PER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROMIMITY.
LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO WARM AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS CONSOLIDATING FROM 28 NORTH 70 WEST TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED AND PUMP DRIER AIR DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH PWS OF 1. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BUILDS A LITTLE TO THE EAST DRYING THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY FROM ABOVE.
The dry cold front will push southward through the region this evening between 6-10PM increasing wind gusts across the region. This highlight may need to come down earlier but ran it through 1PM to see how conditions are in the morning. Notice, we do not expect this to continue to into peak heating when most humidities are at the lowest. /sb 18Z TAFS: A cold front sags in later Saturday evening, with a few more middle to high clouds.