Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 A slow moving high pressure to the east will keep winds from the southeast today into Sunday. Otherwise Sunday morning temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning, most locations from 67 to 70. While east of the Missouri River capping should old, storms just west of the river may develop and would likely move a bit more easterly as the ridge aloft is breaking down a bit and westerly flow increases. Could we see a cold pool develop with more of an easterly movement versus northeast? That is possible as the weak cold pool aloft looks to move near the low level instability in the early evening.
847 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure centered over northwest Mexico will continue the warming trend through Sunday.
A weak upper trough hanging over the area today will shift east tonight.
Otherwise, high pressure will lead to warm and mainly dry conditions for the start of the upcoming week. Can't rule out that a cell or two could grow tall enough to hit the freezing level and produce some thunder. Low temperatures will be a degree or so warmer tonight, range from the mid 60s in west-central Ohio over to central Ohio to the upper 60s to around 70 in the Cinci Tri-State. On Sunday, the 500mb ridge re-establishes itself over the region. At the surface, high pressure from Canada will extend its influence down into the area. A weak mid level ridge and light southerly flow will keep a hot airmass and a continued chance of afternoon showers over the region through the forecast.
Tonight through Sunday night A southwest to northeast oriented upper ridge from the southern Rockies and southwestern states into the central Plains states will continue to provide for a northwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles through Sunday night. Embedded perturbations over the central and southern Rockies will track southeast and generate scattered to widespread convection this afternoon and tonight and again Sunday afternoon and Sunday night over the higher terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.
225 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Upper troughing continues to extend through the western Atlantic, across northern Florida and the northern gulf coast states. The surface reflection of this trough is a stalled out frontal boundary that has been lingering over the GA/FL line the past few days.
Water vapor imagery also shows an upper tropospheric trough axis across the south-central Gulf, with a subtle embedded spin now passing eastward to the north of the Yucatan Channel. The 00z ECMWF shows lobes of 300 mb divergence affecting the Keys at times through Sunday morning, in advance of the upper trough that will pass east across the Keys.
1251 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Pac NW upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region. Diurnal heating will lower CIN across the area this afternoon, esp over the NE WY and the higher Black Hills where convective initiation is expected. The next impulse emanating from the Pac NW upper trough will push toward the region with increasing support for TS activity, esp in the west where cells will fire in central WY and push east into the western FA late this afternoon and evening. However, strong capping will contain convection to over the Black Hills at first until diurnal heating weakens CIN enough to fire storms on an old trough/outflow boundary.
Summer like pattern will roll on through much of the extended, as mid and upper level heights remain elevated due to the ridge of high pressure emanating from the Central U. While there are no synoptic features of interest for lift through at least mid to late week, weaknesses in the ridging will allow for a breaking of the cap in the afternoon and early evening. This wave could bring a cold front across the Ohio Valley and bringing a better anchor for convection to Kentucky.
Temperatures will increase and approach the century mark in the lower elevations for the remainder of the holiday weekend. High pressure ridging has retrograded slightly and will continue to move westward a bit through Sunday. Otherwise, a dry southwesterly flow will prevail over Central California, and slightly warmer than average temperatures will remain throughout the region until Sunday.
An upper ridge with an axis to the west of the forecast area will keep hot conditions over central Indiana through the short term.
Quiet morning thus far with southwest flow in place over the region ahead of a deepening trough off the Pacific Northwest coast.
We are expecting thunderstorms to develop over the mountains by afternoon and move east across the lower elevations during the afternoon and evening. By mid week a ridge starts to build in a little stronger and less energy is moving through the flow. With the drier weather, expecting highs to warm from the lower 80s early in the week to the upper 80s by the weekend.
An upper-tropospheric trough is seen in water vapor imagery spinning over the southeast Gulf, bringing an increase in upper level winds across the Keys until Sunday morning.
More of the same today, with continued hot weather under the influence of the mid/upper ridge. High temperatures look to again top out in the 88-92 degree range, although dewpoints look to mix out into the low/mid 60s in most areas. This will keep us below Heat Advisory criteria, with most spots seeing max heat indices in the low 90s this afternoon.
Another area of storms will be approaching the southwest, ahead of an advancing cold front around or after 03z, likely in the form of a forward propagating MCS. This activity will likely diminish as the low level jet relaxes Sunday morning.
Lows tonight will drop into the middle 60s to around 70 tonight as highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s occur on Sunday. Heat index values in the low to middle 90s are expected on Sunday. An upper level ridge will be over the area through much of the week. Early in the week highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s will occur with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s.
1139 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate across the region today, and in the absence of any significant lifting mechanism and subsidence it should remain dry. The upper level pattern begins to change by later on Sunday as the ridge begins to flatten as upper level energy deepens and drifts across southern/central Canada.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A mid level ridge centered roughly over New Mexico/North central old Mexico will continue to dominate in the short term. High pressure over much of the Gulf will reign at the surface.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 91 71 88 71 / 10 50 10 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 92 71 90 70 / 10 40 10 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 71 90 70 / 0 40 10 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 89 68 88 67 / 0 40 10 40 10.
111 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure centered over northwest Mexico will continue the warming trend through Sunday.
The region will remain on the eastern side of an upper level ridge. The short term period begins with ridging overhead and relatively dry conditions.
WV loop suggests some weak energy will come out into the High Plains late this afternoon and evening, likely firing up convection over the region. During the late afternoon hours, a weak cold front will begin sliding into the northwestern part of the CWA.
Anomalous, high amplitude ridge moving east from the Central U.
Will keep the low chance pops (near 30%) for now. Elsewhere, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s.
The inherited POPs through the rest of the morning had this covered fairly well, although an update was made to reduce them some across far northwest Arkansas, confining the higher values to areas along and south of I-40. The overall POP configuration in the afternoon was preserved with this update, favoring parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas for the highest coverage, but the maximum values were reduced to mid-chance range. temps should be a few degrees cooler underneath the vort max and associated cloud cover. daily diurnal thunderstorm chances will be possible with the greater potentials within the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. surface winds return out of the south as a ridge of high pressure.
1105 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will keep conditions quiet and very warm this weekend, with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. After a partly to mostly sunny morning, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the higher elevations of the NY Susquehanna region and into the hills of Northeast PA. High pressure moves into the area tonight, leading to quiet weather with mostly clear skies. High pressure will be in control for Sunday, leading to mostly sunny skies.
Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with very low chances for an isolated shower or a rumble of thunder. The upcoming work week will see the return of above normal temperatures as the persistent ridge currently over us strengthens and becomes centered just to our west.
A low grade monsoon pattern is in store through the much of the upcoming week with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly over the higher terrain to the south and east of Tucson. Meanwhile, high pressure will result in temperatures a few degrees above average.
1113 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Synoptic Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated beneath an upper level ridge -- largely separated from the mid-latitude westerlies (SW flow aloft over the Intermountain West/Northern Rockies).
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Quiet conditions currently reign across the CWA early this morning, with upper air and satellite data showing ridging remaining the main feature. This ridging extends roughly from the NM/TX/Mex border area north-northeastward through the Central Plains. set up between low pressure spinning near the WA/Can border and troughing along the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure is draped NE-SW through the heart of the area, bringing light/variable winds CWA-wide.
253 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will keep conditions quiet and very warm this weekend, with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. High pressure over the western Great Lakes will move southeast into the area tonight with drier air. Sunday night warmer air moves in aloft. Lows will be from around 60 to the lower 60s.
This is due to shallow moisture in the lowest levels with dry air aloft combining with light winds to produce a conducive environment for fog development. Sunday will be similar to today as a mid/upper level high pressure system meanders across the desert southwest. Temps may be a degree or two warmer Sunday, which will lead to heat indices in the 105 to 109 range by Sunday afternoon. Sunday night is expected to be a tad warmer than tonight due to stronger LLJ and slightly more low level moisture/clouds.
By the latter half of the week, upper ridging to the west will begin to build east into the area.
Lastly, a moderate LLJ, especially along and west of the James valley will likely support convection coming off the High Plains into the overnight hours.
A stalling cold front will also be draped across the CWA tomorrow night, and will serve as a focus for additional convective development ahead of the main convective cluster(s), owing to enhanced low-level baroclinity amidst a moderately unstable and extremely moist environment with MLCAPE ~2,500 J/kg and mean mixing ratios as high as 15-17 g/kg.
Confidence is slightly higher, however, due to stronger forcing provided by a cold front that will push across the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
with a broad southeastern trough under the upper ridge. Have continued the highest pops in that area for the next few hours.
257 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Another hot day in store for the Ohio Valley on Sunday, but will take on a different character as the upper ridge that has been influencing our weather is starting to break down. Broad ridging will remain in place aloft, while a weak upper low initially located over the lower MS Valley will slowly push across the Deep South throughout the week.
1150 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Another active day is in store for the Western Slope as subtropical moisture circulating around a ridge of high pressure continues to be advected into the region. PWATs will remain in this range throughout the day before trending downwards overnight and into Sunday as the high's center drifts over Baja, shutting off the moisture tap. Activity will once again favor the higher terrain along the Continental Divide with lightning and gusty winds likely threats. Additionally, dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 40s across the southern and central zones this afternoon which will lead to wetting rains and even some brief heavy downpours with stronger cells.
/issued 510 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Models continue to maintain high pressure over the region today and tonight. This will not only suppress rain changes, but an associated thermal ridge, at 850mb, will also help create afternoon highs well above those more usual, for early July.
254 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 There is broad "Denver Cyclone" circulation going at this time. There is some drying/lowering of the dew points in the downsloping off the Palmer ridge. Models keep upper ridging over the CWA tonight and Sunday, with weak southwesterly flow aloft tonight and weak west- northwesterly flow aloft on Sunday. The low level winds should continue stays quo through early this evening, then normal drainage patterns. The highest CAPE proggs for this evening are over the southeastern CWA, mainly Lincoln County. For Sunday afternoon, the highest values are over the mountains and foothills. For Sunday aftenoon's pops, 20%-50%s with the highest in the mountains.
1147 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Current surface map shows weak trof across western North Dakota into eastern Wyoming. with eastward shift of surface trof through this afternoon. Moisture rich boundary layer along the surface trof pushes MLCAPE above 2500J/KG across much of western South Dakota.
324 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Summer like pattern will roll on through much of the extended, as mid and upper level heights remain elevated due to the ridge of high pressure emanating from the Central U. While there are no synoptic features of interest for lift through at least mid to late week, weaknesses in the ridging will allow for a breaking of the cap in the afternoon and early evening. This wave could bring a cold front across the Ohio Valley and bringing a better anchor for convection to Kentucky.
305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Summer like pattern will roll on through much of the extended, as mid and upper level heights remain elevated due to the ridge of high pressure emanating from the Central U. While there are no synoptic features of interest for lift through at least mid to late week, weaknesses in the ridging will allow for a breaking of the cap in the afternoon and early evening. This wave could bring a cold front across the Ohio Valley and bringing a better anchor for convection to Kentucky. Lingering fog has lifted into some midslope and ridgetop areas so far.
A compact upper low over southwest Missouri is expected to slowly move south and eventually merge with a larger upper low currently over the Gulf Coast. This forecast will lean toward the ECMWF solution with the low farther south and having little impact on our region.
The region will remain on the eastern side of an upper level ridge. Hot conditions continue as highs for the short term period are in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the lowlands and mid 70s to mid 80s for the higher elevations. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands and low to mid 60s for the mountains. Sunday will remain dry across most of the lowlands as high pressure and an upper level ridge hold over the area. A cold front approaches the eastern part of the region on Sunday, leading to possible showers and thunderstorm chances in the mountains Sunday afternoon/evening.
A weak upper low will be just off to the west during the day Sunday, along with an upper high to our east.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to be above normal in the lower to mid 90s across the area. Broad cyclonic flow will prevail from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the southern Mississippi Valley, with mid-level ridging gradually nosing into South Florida from the Bahamas.
145 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Synoptic Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated beneath an upper level ridge -- largely separated from the mid-latitude westerlies (SW flow aloft over the Intermountain West/Northern Rockies). The main ridge will be in the Four Corners region at the start of the period, as a disturbance slides across Canada and flattens the northern stream.
Moisture returning as trof/low aloft continues to linger over the lower Mississippi valley.
1045 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Currently - The combination of a midlatitude trough over the eastern United States and a weak closed low over the southeastern United States has dislodged the surface through lower level ridge southward across Cuba. A couple rounds of the reverse island cloud line was able to develop over the Lower Keys. In addition, there is some drier air through the lower levels. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain across Cuba through the overnight period, ensuring weak southwest breezes across the forecast area. While temperatures will settle down to the lower 80s to near 80 for most places, some protected and interior areas may see upper 70s. A ridge will remain across Cuba through the overnight period.
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Mid level troughiness continues over the southeast US and northern Gulf of Mexico through Sun as a frontal boundary meanders along the AL/GA/FL border. Atlantic high pressure stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico with an axis along the Florida Keys. Low temperatures will run above normal by a couple or degrees or so while the highs stay near normal. A high pressure ridge axis near the Florida Keys will provide west-southwest winds and adequate moisture for showers and thunderstorms for the next few days.
There is broad "Denver Cyclone" circulation going at this time. There is some drying/lowering of the dew points in the downsloping off the Palmer ridge. Models keep upper ridging over the CWA tonight and Sunday, with weak southwesterly flow aloft tonight and weak west- northwesterly flow aloft on Sunday. The low level winds should continue stays quo through early this evening, then normal drainage patterns. The highest CAPE proggs for this evening are over the southeastern CWA, mainly Lincoln County. For Sunday afternoon, the highest values are over the mountains and foothills. For Sunday aftenoon's pops, 20%-50%s with the highest in the mountains.
738 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will maintain mainly clear skies through the forecast period with just a few diurnal cumulus on Sunday afternoon. Winds will be light and northeast into tonight and swing to the south to southwest as the center of high pressure settles a bit south.
VFR conditions expected to prevail as the Rio Grande Valley remains under the influence of mid-level high pressure centered over SW New Mexico. /issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A mid level ridge centered roughly over New Mexico/North central old Mexico will continue to dominate in the short term. High pressure over much of the Gulf will reign at the surface.
1028 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Afternoon showers and storms will mainly stay confined to the higher elevations through the weekend. Low pressure is forecast to bring tropical moisture to the Southeast during the first half of the week, likely resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. As a stationary boundary well south of the area begins to slowly lift northward as a warm front and a weak boundary lingers north of the area, expect increasing coverage for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms once again on Sunday as upper ridging deamplifies and shifts eastward.
Another hot day in store for the Ohio Valley on Sunday, but will take on a different character as the upper ridge that has been influencing our weather is starting to break down. Broad ridging will remain in place aloft, while a weak upper low initially located over the lower MS Valley will slowly push across the Deep South throughout the week.
Surface analysis late this evening shows broad high pressure in place over the Great Lakes. Strong ridging aloft over the plains was continuing to provide strong subsidence across Illinois and Indiana. An upper ridge with an axis to the west of the forecast area will keep hot conditions over central Indiana through the short term.
High pressure and subsidence overnight. Weak cold front sagging south from the Ottawa valley later Sunday and Sunday night.
Other than a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoons in northern mountains, skies will be mostly sunny the next several days, with normal or slightly below normal temps due to an upper trough along the northwest coast.
High pressure will lead to mainly dry conditions on Sunday. On Sunday, the 500mb ridge re-establishes itself over the region. At the surface, high pressure from Canada will extend its influence down into the area. A weak mid level ridge and light southerly flow will keep a hot airmass and a continued chance of afternoon showers over the region through the forecast.
644 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 A slow moving high pressure to the east will keep winds from the southeast today into Sunday. Otherwise Sunday morning temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning, most locations from 67 to 70. While east of the Missouri River capping should old, storms just west of the river may develop and would likely move a bit more easterly as the ridge aloft is breaking down a bit and westerly flow increases. Could we see a cold pool develop with more of an easterly movement versus northeast? That is possible as the weak cold pool aloft looks to move near the low level instability in the early evening.
A low grade monsoon pattern is in store through the much of the upcoming week with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly over the higher terrain to the south and east of Tucson. Meanwhile, high pressure will result in temperatures a few degrees above average. Troughiness through the northwest with strong high pressure over the desert southwest and northwest Mexico.
Mostly sunny-sunny skies expected tomorrow area-wide with seasonable highs with readings a few degrees warmer than today in spots.
High pressure and subsidence tonight. Weak cold front sagging south from the Ottawa valley later Sunday and Sunday night.
509 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Pac NW upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region. Diurnal heating will lower CIN across the area this afternoon, esp over the NE WY and the higher Black Hills where convective initiation is expected. The next impulse emanating from the Pac NW upper trough will push toward the region with increasing support for TS activity, esp in the west where cells will fire in central WY and push east into the western FA late this afternoon and evening. However, strong capping will contain convection to over the Black Hills at first until diurnal heating weakens CIN enough to fire storms on an old trough/outflow boundary.
Partly to mostly clouds skies will prevail with lows in the lower 70s.
553 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Synoptic Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated beneath an upper level ridge -- largely separated from the mid-latitude westerlies (SW flow aloft over the Intermountain West/Northern Rockies). The main ridge will be in the Four Corners region at the start of the period, as a disturbance slides across Canada and flattens the northern stream.
The pattern will not change appreciably during the period as the region remains under the influence of large scale troughing to the north, which will promote a moderately deep 2000-3000 ft marine layer as supported by the bulk of the guidance as well as recent profiler data.