Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Have removed the low pops from northwest Arkansas after 06Z. Heat ridge builds across the region during the day with afternoon highs climbing well into the 90s. Added Heat Advisory for remainder of northwest Arkansas at the same time as winds turn more southwest and advect higher moisture into the Ozarks along with warmer H8 temps.
A weather system will move into Oregon on Sunday as an upper trough moves ashore over the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022/ The high heat remains large and in charge this weekend as an upper high shifts directly over the region by tomorrow, before departing quickly thereafter. This process will bring a layer of mid-level moisture around the ridge and into the NW South Plains and SW Panhandle through the afternoon, yet high temps should be largely unchanged from today.
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper-level ridge to be the predominant feature driving the weather pattern across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period. With the ridge becoming centered over the region by Sunday afternoon, subsidence will drive afternoon high temperatures to near 100 degrees areawide. With dew point values in the low to mid 70s, heat index values will soar to near 110 degrees.
High pressure will continue to deliver the hottest temperatures so far this year through Sunday.
354 PM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Showers will dissipate late this evening over the basin with showers remaining over the higher terrain overnight.
Surface ridging will remain over the area producing calm winds and good raditational cooling. Building Surface ridging will keep winds generally less than 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 91 73 97 75 / 0 10 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 89 72 95 75 / 0 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 71 95 74 / 0 10 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 87 68 92 71 / 0 20 20 30 20.
848 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (Issued 847 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022) A cold front is dropping into central Wisconsin this evening, and should continue southward into the southern part of the state late this evening into the overnight. High pressure behind the back door front will sit over the Great Lakes on Sunday, with persistent easterly winds keeping it cooler near the lake. Quiet conditions will continue through Sunday night, with persistent cooler temps northeast and milder southwest.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s across the entire area tonight amid an offshore flow. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.
High pressure wl begin to develop WWD from the Bahamas and W Atlc basin with the sfc axis initially across S FL. Mid level temps wl warm in response to influence of building ridge, which will help to limit storm strength, but with PWAT 1. Afternoon highs in the lower to Mid 90s with heat indices around 100.
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (Tonight) Temperatures have already climbed into the lower 80s primarily except in the Quad-cities area which has reached 87 degrees already this afternoon. With higher dewpoints being advected into the area, expect lows to be warmer, only dropping into the mid to upper 60s in most locations, despite clear skies and light winds.
Upper ridging aloft building across the central gulf coast will suppress typical afternoon convection.
The threat of severe weather has ended for those counties as cooler, more stable air has moved in.
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A broad upper ridge is centered over the southwest of the United Sates today. Trough/cold front will sag southeast and will be in our eastern southern CWA by mid to late afternoon. The ridge will be centered over the central and southern United States plains and will provide another shot at some potentially severe thunderstorms for Sunday night with increased low- level moisture return forecast. MUCAPEs should be substantial enough to support some large hail and perhaps damaging wind gusts, especially in the western CWA where the 850 mb theta-e ridge is forecast to be.
432 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Upper level analysis depicts a broad upper ridge over the western half of the US. As mixing continues through the afternoon, dewpoints will hover in the low to mid 50s across the area. Despite the meager thermodynamic environment, strong westerly winds along with northern periphery of the western ridge will result in effective bulk shear magnitudes 55-70 knots this afternoon and evening. A quick moving trough will move onshore near the OR/CA coast early Sunday morning. As this trough matures and digs across the southwestern US, upper level flow will shift out of the southwest.
The broad trough to our east moves further east while deep-layer ridging builds into the ArkLaTex Region overnight. Lows will range from the upper 60s northeast to the low 70s south. Deep-layer ridging builds further northeast over the Mid-South region on Sunday. A few model solutions depict an impulse that moves out of Missouri after midnight tonight and drops into the Tennessee Valley region during the day on Sunday around the periphery of the ridging aloft. Similar to today, the ridging aloft looks to remain the weakest across the southeast and that would allow isolated showers with a few storms to develop in this area. Highs will reflect the rising heights and will assume less shower and storm potential north and central with readings from the low 90s north and east to the mid 90s southwest.
(Rest of tonight) Surface analysis this evening shows ridging in control of the pattern through much of the SE US.
Tonight: Mid-level ridge will build E, leading to increase in low-level warmth & humidity. Due to increased moisture & some cloudiness overnight, lows will remain above climo in the low 70s for most of the region. As 594DM mid-level ridge builds E Sun, expect strong WAA & low-level thermo increase to nearly upper teens-low 20 deg. A big dome of high pressure will be parked over much of the southeast United States through this week. Upper ridging begins to build across the area on Sunday and will continue though much of the week, resulting in mostly dry conditions and increasing temperatures and heat stress concerns. This, coupled with dewpoints firmly in the lower to mid 70s through the period, will bring heat index values exceeding 100 degrees, and most locations around 100 to 105 degrees through the week.
Large scale pattern begins to amplify by mid week in response to an upper high pressure done becoming situated over the southeastern states.
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper-level ridge to be the predominant feature driving the weather pattern across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period. With the ridge becoming centered over the region by Sunday afternoon, subsidence will drive afternoon high temperatures to near 100 degrees areawide. With dew point values in the low to mid 70s, heat index values will soar to near 110 degrees.
(Today and tonight) Today will be another very hot one as upper ridging builds further overhead. As we saw yesterday, areas to the east will likely hold on to a bit higher dewpoints given lingering ground moisture and less mixing, and have once again gone towards the higher end of guidance with surface moisture for these areas.
317 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Upper ridging remains from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a series of upper impulses sliding across the Central Rockies. While this will push the higher dewpoints east, it will increase mixing and bring even warmer temps for Mon afternoon, with many locations topping 100. Heat advisory still looks good for today as the higher dewpoints stick around for one more day. As the trough continues east, a weak cold front will slowly work south into northern KS and will eventually become stalled across southern KS for the Wed-Thu time frame. Confidence remains high that above normal temps will continue through these extended periods with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
It will be another mild night with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Any lingering convection will come to an end by Sunday morning, leading to a warmer and more humid day as an upper level ridge continues to build over the region and a southeasterly low level flow brings an increase in near surface moisture. Monday will be the hot day of the week with the upper level ridge overhead and 850 mb temperatures climbing into mid to upper 20s C. Temperatures remain on the highest percentile with respect to climatology, and highs will reach the 90s - touching on 100 through the central and lower MO River Valley.
145 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 An upper level trough will move across the area through the weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the west early to mid-week.
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 An upper level trough will move across the area through the weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the west early to mid-week.
Low amplitude ridge building into the area today is bringing some of the warmest temperatures of the season so far to eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The short-term focus is on severe weather potential later this afternoon and evening on the periphery of the upper ridge. NAEFS ensembles show all 52 members have low levels warmer than all values in the 1979-2009 climatology for mid-June.
Have removed the low pops from northwest Arkansas after 06Z.
416 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected today with the passage of a cold front. An amplifying ridge over the Great Lakes will build east during the short term period, providing mostly dry weather during this time.
A weak ridge axis lies in the vicinity of the Florida Keys, which will make for another day of light and variable winds to start. This is combination with relatively drier air in the lower levels will act to stifle PoPs once again. The ridge axis will lift north tonight into Monday while strengthening.
Overall SPC HREF members are in decent agreement with the evolution of todays showers and storms and with the highest threat areas for heavy rain and damaging wind/hail. Monday a deep trough pushes east into the region driving a cold front across the area and shunting the atmospheric river eastward and weakening it. The cold front will likely kick off thunderstorms over these areas by late Monday afternoon. As the trough moves in snow levels fall across the mountains with accumulating snow expected to impact the Beartooth pass with at least a few inches possible.
948 PM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Showers will dissipate late this evening over the basin with showers remaining over the higher terrain overnight.
Upper level ridging present over the south-central U. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will build west into the southeastern U. Temperatures cool into the lower to middle 70's for most locations. Moving forward into Sunday, upper level ridging begins to shift east. 00Z CAMs have become more inclined in bringing this across the central Plains states tonight into Sunday morning, then rounding the periphery of the ridge and sagging south across TN into AL/MS Sunday evening. With high pressure building in, I would expect overall convective coverage to be more limited and for temperatures to be warmer.
/ISSUED 300 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ The high pressure ridge that has brought SE Texas dry and cool weather over the past couple of days will move eastward as an upper level trough moves across Mexico and into Texas over the weekend. During the afternoon and evening a coastal trough will form as the upper level disturbance moves overhead.
Dense cirrus over the area is being provided by an upper low currently off the coast of Baja. This low will move northeast over the next 24 hours increasing moisture and giving the Big Bend a decent chance at showers, with rain chances decreasing farther north. The low will be weakening as it transits west Texas so did not mention TS in the grids at this time though a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.
Northeast winds along the Space and Treasure Coast will limit temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, however inland locations with a more northerly wind will fall into the lower 50s, except mid/upper 40s northwest of I-4. (Previous disc) The pressure gradient will remain tight early tonight with solid Small Craft Advisory conditions, but a weak inverted trough associated with an approaching secondary northeast wind surge may ease winds a little late.
742 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 The 00Z MFL sounding shows northeast flow in the lower levels, becoming west northwest aloft. Strengthening north northeasterly flow this evening will advect in a cooler and relatively drier airmass.
The high pressure center currently located to our north will continue to slide east overnight. The plateau is on track to see lows in the lower and mid 20s with lows in the mid and upper 20s elsewhere.
Warm and windy weather can be expected over the next couple of days as ridging remains overhead with downslope flow at the surface.
/issued 406 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ High pressure centered over southern Illinois this afternoon will continue to slide to the east tonight and tomorrow turning winds easterly and eventually east southeasterly ushering in gulf moisture in advance of an upper level low advancing out of south Texas.
312 PM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 Flat upper level ridge will build over the forecast area, with warm advection continuing through Saturday. Lows tonight will be a little warmer in most locations, with the warmest readings near the foothills in light downslope flow. Airmass will remain very dry and southwesterly flow in the low and mid levels increases a bit, increasing the fire danger.
648 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central Rockies to the Canadian prairies and a deep trough across the eastern U. This ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sat. With the upper ridge moving into the area, lake effect snow showers will continue to slowly wind down to the east of Marquette and this is already covered in the going forecast. Went again with the coldest I could find which was adjmos guidance which I used last night and did better than the warmer guidance.
Farther south and west, increasing cloud cover should keep temps cooler than today, so humidity levels stay above critical levels.
527 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Gusty winds and scattered snow showers associated with a crossing cold front this afternoon will be followed by dry weather through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. This will continue into the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating plus the passage of the 850 mb thermal trough, and have adjusted PoPs to this thinking. High pressure will provide dry conditions through the weekend with a warming trend in temperatures.
Light winds and clear skies should allow for good radiational cooling and some locations in the northeastern third of the forecast area could see a couple of hours of freezing temperatures. High pressure will slowly shift away from the area allowing winds to veer to a more southerly direction Saturday, but it will take a while to increase low level humidity. Will keep the limited threat for fire danger going in the HWO/graphics for Saturday due primarily to the low humidity, although winds will be a bit gusty at times.
Overall, it will be a warm and windy weekend w/ some ridging aloft and a strong jet overhead.
An anticyclonic circulation around this high was bringing a northerly flow across the region. Earlier this morning, a weak cold front or reinforcing shot of colder air moved across the area from the north, which will fortify the cooler airmass currently in place. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged in the low/mid 60s most spots, with 5-10 mph and a few gusts to 15 mph winds from the north. As the high settled over the forecast area tonight, light winds, clear skies, and remnant cold air advection will bring below freezing temperatures across nearly all of the forecast region. Locations near large bodies of water may be a tad warmer, only cooling to around freezing. Highs tomorrow in the lower 60s will be close to seasonable norms of 61.
Currently, a surface warm front extended from a low over Alberta southeastward across Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. New Salem to Mobridge SD. The warm front will continue to push eastward tonight, with warming temperatures to above freezing at h850 above the surface layer. The surface layer will decouple from the warmer temperatures aloft tonight, and overnight lows should range from around 20 in the Turtle Mountains to the upper 20s in the far southwest. On Saturday, we should see significant warming with the surface mixing with the warmer layer aloft.
Onshore winds will increase throughout the morning as high pressure strengthens to our north. Onshore winds will increase Saturday morning as a strong high pressure system moves into the Mid-Atlantic.
Britt The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an upper-level trough pushing off the Northeast Coast, with an amplifying ridge building across the western CONUS. This upper-leveling ridging will build into the Midwest through the day on Saturday, bringing another substantial warmup to the region. Have gone with highs in the mid to upper 60s, with some of the warmer spots potentially climbing to around 70 degrees. KD Upper ridge over the region Sat evening will move ewd with sly to swly flow thru the low levels. Have trended aoa the warmer guidance. More clouds are expected on Sun with deeper moisture return and have therefore trended slightly cooler from Sat temps, but still above warmest guidance.
Ridge of high pressure building into the southern Appalachians producing clear sky and calm wind. Have issued a SPS concerning the potential impacts of the freezing temperatures. Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 59 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 56 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 25 56 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 51 27 61 / 0 0 0 0.
However, cloud cover will gradually increase and ceilings will gradually lower from southwest to northeast as an upper trough approaches. High pressure ridge at the surface will be exiting the region to the east tonight. Usually, low level moisture return precedes mid and upper level moisture ahead of an upper level trough but that will not necessarily be the case with our weekend system. This upper level trough is currently spinning across the Baja region of NW Mexico attm and is forecast to quickly begin filling as it moves into the Tx Hill Country during the day Saturday.
At the surface, a broad dome of high pressure -- currently centered across IN -- is expected to shift slowly eastward into the eastern Great Lakes/central Appalachians by 12Z. Although winds for most locations will continue to relax with the weakening pressure gradient, a few unprotected locations may experience a light easterly wind and briefly warmer temps throughout the night. Highs tomorrow in the lower 60s will be close to seasonable norms of 61.
542 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure will expand across the region through this TAF period. A dry and stable environment will maintain plenty of clear sky across the lowest 10k ft through Saturday. This will limit boundary layer mixing depths during the day, coupled with mid/high clouds overhead, and looking at another chilly day with highs mostly in the lower 30s.
aforementioned inbound wave will be accompanied by a weak cold front that will pass across the region today. expect another above average day as highs climb into the lower to middle 60s. Warming trend to continue right through midweek as broad upper ridging develops across the central U. in advance of a deep upper trough moving into California. expect leeside low pressure to develop across the Front Range with strong southwest flow expected further east across the Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley.
High pressure will bring an increase in afternoon high temperatures through Tuesday.
This will produce breezy/windy conditions at times with periods of clouds and sprinkles/light showers at the lower elevations. and a chance of rain/snow showers in the high country.
954 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 There are areas of high clouds across much of the forecast area this morning ahead of an approaching trough. The question is how quick these clouds will push out of here as warmer air aloft quickly returns on Tuesday.
Satellite also shows dry air infiltrating SE AL with the high cloud clearing line slowly moving eastward. Two upper lows, one located across Missouri and the other across the Carolinas, will merge as they move northeast towards the central Appalachians. Mid level dry air will work into the area this morning, shutting off the mid/high level moisture tap and shunting the high clouds south into the Gulf of Mexico. Highs today will mostly be in the lower 70s with a return of mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.
324 AM PST Mon Nov 14 2016 Slightly warmer for inland areas today under strengthening high pressure. Slightly cooler Tuesday.
Moisture-starved mid/upper level trof to move through the Ohio Valley region today. A secondary trof diving se into the back side of the main trof may be able to generate some very light precip over swrn portions of the forecast area, but for the most part, the main outcome from this system will be negligible in a QPF sense. Thereafter, fair weather high pressure will settle back in for the remainder of the short term. The passage of a weak surface trof/frontal system tonight will not have much of an effect on temperatures either, as the air mass behind the trof will be seasonally mild.
/issued 334 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016/ A wrapped up upper-level cyclone is moving east across the Mid- South early this morning with little fanfare. Temperatures this afternoon will be at or slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday, with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. This will help pull a bit more moisture into the Mid-South, increasing dewpoints into the low/mid 40s by sunset.
641 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 Low pressure will lift northeast of the area today. High pressure will extend into the area from the west in the wake of the low Tuesday.
The upper flow pattern consists of a large northeast Pacifc trough/storm system with the upper low center located just south of Kodiak Island. Tuesday another ridge moves over Montana. Models also show a cold front and a southwesterly flow that could generate additional light showers during the day and Tuesday night.
312 AM MST Mon Nov 14 2016 High pressure building over the region today and Tuesday will cause additional warming which will lead to much above normal temperatures by Tuesday. A low pressure system will then move through the western states midweek.
Tuesday will be warmer with drier air and clearer skies, and highs will reach into the low to mid 80s across the region.
Two upper lows, one located across Missouri and the other across the Carolinas, will merge as they move northeast towards the central Appalachians. Mid level dry air will work into the area this morning, shutting off the mid/high level moisture tap and shunting the high clouds south into the Gulf of Mexico. Highs today will mostly be in the lower 70s with a return of mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.
A cold front will usher in a much colder airmass for the weekend along with a chance of showers. Expect to see a continued increase in mainly high level clouds tonight as the short wave energy moving out of the mid Mississippi Valley helps carve out a broader trough across the Ohio Valley region tonight into Tuesday morning.
Several sites in the north got down to freezing this morning and frost was observed. Under clear skies and a calm winds, temperatures are warming rapidly into the lower 50s. This high will dominate today as it slides east and weakens.
604 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 High pressure will keep fair skies and mild temperatures over NY and PA through this evening. Another quiet day is forecast Monday as high pressure continues to dictate our weather.