Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1020 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor show northwest flow aloft with subtle trough axis pivoting across the Northern Plains today. Expansive high pressure over SW US and ridge axis over the Pacific NW will dominate the weather through at least midweek. Fully expect the occasional wave riding the top of the ridge, although dry west-northwest flow will limit precipitation chances and storm coverage.
356 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A passing shower or storm can be expected with the passage of a cold front late this afternoon and evening. A fast moving surface front, being pushed eastward by the aforementioned trough, will cross the western half of the region by 00Z. Crossing cold front will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, but the coverage of the rain should rapidly decrease with the loss of daytime heating and upper level support.
Models have struggled with consistent convective development along this advancing trough as various CAM solutions have differed in both timing and placement of storms today.
Tomorrow, slightly cooler temperatures are expected especially if clouds/showers persist longer than expected, and so no Heat Advisory will be needed.
Otherwise clouds are scattering out behind the cold front this morning from west to east. Amplified upper pattern will exist through midweek with upper ridging over the western U. and troughing over the east. 85H temperatures will cool into he 5-7 C range from Monday as High pressure builds in from the northern Plains.
Temperatures for tomorrow morning were left as is but don't be surprised if they are a degree or two warmer than forecast thanks to the cloud debris keeping it a little warmer.
Cold front has pushed just east of our CWA early this morning. a short wave/500 mb trough axis is sliding into Lower Michigan. it does appear to be strengthening a bit with the approach of the upper trough axis. The rest of the day will feature overall dry wx with mainly sunny skies as high pressure and drier air take control. Tonight will be mainly clear and cooler with overnight lows in the 50s. High Impact Weather Potential: None Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper trough remains in place over the Great Lakes during the short term period with below normal temperatures. In the wake of the secondary cold front, cold air overhead along with descent diurnal heating will bring some instability which will try to overcome increasing surface drying.
1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A cold front is moving through north Arkansas at this time and sparking a few thunderstorms in the northeast. A cold front will be located on the AR/MO border Sun morning, and will drive a wind shft to N/NErly through Sun.
Expect the center of the high to be positioned over central and southern Missouri today and tonight. With the clear skies tonight, lows will be in the low to mid 60s in most locations, albeit, some upper 50s are not out of the question in some of the cooler locations over the eastern Ozarks. Pattern will dominated by a large western ridge, with north to northwest flow over our area. A cooler and drier air mass was filtering into the region this evening and will remain in control of the regions weather.
415 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front will move across the area today. Another weak cold front will swing through on Monday. High pressure will then build into the region. Cold front bisecting Indiana early this morning will continue to move east and sweep across the forecast area today. Next short wave moving through a mid level trough will pass through on Monday. Lows will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight with highs getting back into the lower to mid 80s. Forecast period will be marked with an upper trough over the eastern U.
246 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Fairly quiet and cooler forecast well through the coming week. Anyway, for the remainder of the weekend, the forecast looks rather nice, with the high pressure remaining parked over the area. Not to re-hash the synoptic discussion the past few days, but the area will remain sandwiched between a steep ridge over the western U. to a deep trough to the east. The conditions persist through the day Sunday thanks to high pressure and dry low level air.
By later in the period on Sunday, a weak cold front will begin advancing its way south into the region with winds veering N/NW and increasing to near 10 kts. However, there is relief on the horizon by Monday morning, as a cold front will be pushing its way south across the region. This rain activity will be in part to the ridge slightly breaking down to our west, allowing for a disturbance trekking across central Texas to potentially reach our extreme western zones.
After the showers and thunderstorms depart after sunrise, the Northland will be under the influence of a high pressure and should see the cool, clear weather continue with highs in the mid to upper 70s for the next couple days.
The short term will start off with rain chances as an upper wave slowly makes its way eastward leaving behind slightly cooler temperatures than we have been seeing recently. Behind this second wave on Monday, even cooler and drier conditions are in the forecast for the rest of the period, kicking off the start of a week of pleasant weather. Temperatures will start off near normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s, trending to slightly below normal, with highs near 80 and lows near 60.
311 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A large high pressure system and heat dome sit over the southwest US while a trough is located in Canada west of Hudson's Bay.
The convection is in response to an outflow boundary moving S-SW across the area and a cold front currently along the northern CWA border that will continue to move south. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with Sunday seeing sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s. Not only will Sunday be cooler, but also drier with dew points 15-20 degrees lower than today. A cooler and drier air mass was filtering into the region this evening and will remain in control of the regions weather.
328 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Calm and seasonable morning continues with lows in the low 50s near the international border to upper 50s within the southern Red River Valley. Monday's high temps will be similar to slightly warmer than Sunday's ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest near central ND. Will see chance for showers and storms return to the area towards the end of the work week as NW flow flattens some with less amplified flow as western CONUS ridging weakens.
The cold front will be close enough to northern portions of SE TX that with heating, we will likely see scattered convection near the boundary beginning around 21 or 22Z.
At the surface, the Atlantic sub-tropical ridge axis will extend across southern Florida through the the first half of the week, with generally westerly low level flow. A ridge of high pressure will hold across southern Florida through the first half of the week with westerly winds generally less than 15 knots. The ridge will lift north by mid week, with winds turning southwesterly and southerly.
The lower levels did dry out a bit overnight as easterly winds pushed some drier air westward through Dodge City; but this will change this morning as we moisten back up. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high plains given elevated heating on the western edge of the higher CAPE late this afternoon, and could move into extreme western Kansas this evening.
A cold front will move across all TAF sites before 16/18z, and winds will shift to the north and northeast following the frontal passage. However, there is relief on the horizon by Monday morning, as a cold front will be pushing its way south across the region. This rain activity will be in part to the ridge slightly breaking down to our west, allowing for a disturbance trekking across central Texas to potentially reach our extreme western zones.
403 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A trough of low pressure will push scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area on Sunday and Monday. Dry, pleasant weather will return for the middle of the week as high pressure builds over NY and PA. A trough of low pressure will rotate into the Great Lakes today and cause humidity levels to rise across NY and PA.
Northwest flow is expected to persist through the day across the TN Valley, as a longwave trough remains anchored along the Appalachians. The highest rain chances will be over our western areas, though coverage is still expected to be scattered at best. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler this afternoon than those observed yesterday, but highs will still reach near seasonal norms. The pattern will generally remain unchanged through the first half of the work week, as the TN Valley remains situated between a strong ridge over the Plains and a trough over the eastern CONUS. Any lingering convection this evening will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating as high pressure settles into the area. Radiational cooling will allow temps to fall into the mid to upper 60s, a few degrees cooler given lower dewpoints in place.
1004 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Mainly dry conditions are anticipated today, though an approaching trough of low pressure will eventually allow a few showers and isolated thunderstorms into the area by tonight into especially Monday. Dry, pleasant weather will return for the middle of the week as high pressure builds over NY and PA. One is a developing low just offshore of the Midatlantic coast making its way up towards southern New England; the other a trough of low pressure currently approaching from the Central Great Lakes. Latest high resolution models make it pretty clear that the surface ridging in between will be dominant for the rest of today. A trough of low pressure will rotate into the Great Lakes today and cause humidity levels to rise across NY and PA.
534 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A slow moving area of low pressure will track off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania on Monday. High pressure is likely to build in from the Great Lakes during midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week. 09Z MRMS RALA loop shows light rain falling across southeast Pa early this morning in association with low pressure tracking across southeast Va.
649 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front will move across the area today. Another weak cold front will swing through on Monday. High pressure will then build into the region. Meanwhile, cold front bisecting Indiana early this morning will continue to move east and sweep across the forecast area today. Next short wave moving through a mid level trough will pass through on Monday. Lows will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight with highs getting back into the lower to mid 80s. Forecast period will be marked with an upper trough over the eastern U.
508 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 An upper level trough deepening over the northeast CONUS will support a cold front which will move through the local area during the late afternoon and evening. Fog will dissipate with warming/mixing after sunrise on Monday, and drier air will be realized at the surface, with dew points expected to fall to the lower to mid 60s. The extended will feature a large trough of low pressure aloft, parked over the northeastern CONUS. Pulses of moisture and energy around this trough will provide the ingredients needed for sporadic shower and storm activity across eastern Kentucky primarily during the afternoon and early evening periods. A cold front moving in from the northwest is expected to set off scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon into the evening, bringing localized sub-VFR conditions.
Expect the center of the high to be positioned over central and southern Missouri today and tonight. With the clear skies tonight, lows will be in the low to mid 60s in most locations, albeit, some upper 50s are not out of the question in some of the cooler locations over the eastern Ozarks. Pattern will dominated by a large western ridge, with north to northwest flow over our area.
1000 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A slow moving area of low pressure will track off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania on Monday. High pressure is likely to build in from the Great Lakes during midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week.
A large high pressure system and heat dome sit over the southwest US while a trough is located in Canada west of Hudson's Bay.
942 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 High pressure is in place across south Florida, with a cold front in place across the deep south just to the north of the state. Highs will reach into the lower to mid 90s. W/SW flow in place over the waters will continue through mid-week, then gradually shift back to the E/SE as the high pressure ridge axis to the south of the waters gradually lifts back to the north for the end of the week.
A surface cold front dropping south across the Upper Midwest this evening may also spark a few storms farther north than this afternoon's activity. Cooler northerly flow will allow the front for Monday under clear skies.
Strong high pressure will maintain a very hot and dry airmass across the region through at least midweek.
619 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The cold front will continue to move through central and south Arkansas today. High pressure will build in behind the front. Today Through Monday Night The large upper ridge continues over the desert southwest providing northwest flow aloft over the Plains. A cold front will move through central and south Arkansas today. High pressure will build into the area behind the front, which by 00Z should be near the Louisiana border.
920 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are expected with the passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Thus, high temps, which are expected to approach the low- 80s, will be too low for deep convection. A broken line of showers will remain and advance along the frontal boundary and exit over the ridges by midnight.
Temperatures will once again top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s today, and combined with dewpoints in the low 70s will lead to heat indices nearing 100 degrees this afternoon. The good news is that a brief period of relief is in our very near future! The pattern will generally remain unchanged through the first half of the work week, as the TN Valley remains situated between a strong ridge over the Plains and a trough over the eastern CONUS. Any lingering convection this evening will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating as high pressure settles into the area. Radiational cooling will allow temps to fall into the mid to upper 60s, a few degrees cooler given lower dewpoints in place.
956 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue along the coast through today, but will diminish tonight as drier air builds in behind a cold front moving offshore this evening.
323 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The upper level ridge will continue to build over the entire western US today. High pressure aloft will be persistent for the greater portion of the week. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today with light winds and plenty of sun.
Calm and seasonable morning continues with lows in the low 50s near the international border to upper 50s within the southern Red River Valley. Monday's high temps will be similar to slightly warmer than Sunday's ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest near central ND. Will see chance for showers and storms return to the area towards the end of the work week as NW flow flattens some with less amplified flow as western CONUS ridging weakens.
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A slow moving area of low pressure will track off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania on Monday. High pressure is likely to build in from the Great Lakes during midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week. 09Z MRMS RALA loop shows light rain falling across southeast Pa early this morning in association with low pressure tracking across southeast Va.
536 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A passing shower or storm can be expected with the passage of a cold front late this afternoon and evening. A fast moving surface front, being pushed eastward by the aforementioned trough, will cross the western half of the region by 00Z. Crossing cold front will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, but the coverage of the rain should rapidly decrease with the loss of daytime heating and upper level support.
733 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Aviation -Storms exiting this morning -Showers and weak storms possible Monday -Mild weather this upcoming week --Storms exiting this morning-- Convection from the approaching cold front continues to move eastward through central Michigan. The upper level trough continues to move through Central Canada with cooler air dropping down across the state today. Given it is still summertime, Max Temperatures will still be in the low 80s with northerly flow dominating today. --Showers and weak storms possible Monday-- As the upper low drops down toward the Great Lakes a secondary front will move through Monday. Several weak troughs will move through the region this week.
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Early this morning a cold front was positioned from Southwest Kansas through Northwest Oklahoma to along the Interstate 40 corridor over Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas and extended east northeast into Southeast Missouri. weak low level frontogenetic forcing coupled with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s had allowed for a few showers to develop along/near the boundary across the CWA. The cold front is expected to continue its southward movement to near/just south of the Red River this afternoon where it looks to then become nearly stationary. Cooler and drier conditions are forecast for Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas today with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and dewpoints in the 60s. the ridge of high pressure is still progged to expand over the Western CONUS with a trof over the Eastern CONUS.
Most of this activity is associated with a passing disturbance and a lingering cold frontal boundary.
632 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Fairly quiet and cooler forecast well through the coming week. Anyway, for the remainder of the weekend, the forecast looks rather nice, with the high pressure remaining parked over the area. Not to re-hash the synoptic discussion the past few days, but the area will remain sandwiched between a steep ridge over the western U. to a deep trough to the east.
Benign pattern with an H5 ridge upstream and broad high pressure locally. /issued 310 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Strong H5 ridging will persist over the Desert Southwest and its effect will extend southeast over the area. Replacement high pressure from the Plains will move south into the northwest Gulf on Monday. Otherwise, fairly seasonal weather will prevail, albeit a bit warmer than normal.
643 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A slow moving area of low pressure will track off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania on Monday. High pressure is likely to build in from the Great Lakes during midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week.
512 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The midlevel high pressure has become centered over the southern end of the Great Basin and will remain quasi-stationary for the next few days. Highs will run well above normal again today, but like yesterday areas under the thicker smoke will remain a few degrees cooler than surrounding areas.
1038 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front will move across the area today. Another weak cold front will swing through on Monday. High pressure will then build into the region. A stratus deck will continue to lift into a cumliform deck as a cold front moves into our region from the west. The cold front will pass east across the region through this afternoon. Overall, highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Next short wave moving through a mid level trough will pass through on Monday. Lows will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight with highs getting back into the lower to mid 80s. Forecast period will be marked with an upper trough over the eastern U.
The low-level ridge axis stretches west across the Florida Keys, supporting light breezes across the coastal waters. The island chain and locations just to the north of the Lower Keys should bubble with isolated convection this afternoon, which is well-covered by our advertised 20% rain chances.
Highs will be reaching the lower to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s/lower 100s.
628 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A trough of low pressure will push scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area on Sunday and Monday. Dry, pleasant weather will return for the middle of the week as high pressure builds over NY and PA. A trough of low pressure will rotate into the Great Lakes today and cause humidity levels to rise across NY and PA.
556 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A cold front has pushed southeast of IL this morning, while weak high pressure will settle into MO and IL today and tonight. A secondary cold front will push south through central IL on Monday, and should pass through dry. Highs today and Monday will be in the mid 80s, with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
The highlights for this forecast package are: no chance for rain until mid week (I was going to say little to no chance but thought I'd try to be brave), hot over the western half of the forecast area with a few places nearing 100 degrees for daytime highs, comfortable at night with low dew point temperatures, low daytime relative humidity west half, and no significant winds (by North Dakota standards). This as the expansive western H5 ridge was building in.
646 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front will move through through the area today, bringing drier conditions to the region. Plenty of cloud cover early this morning due to stratus layer behind the cold front, but this is beginning to show signs of breaking up as drier air mixes in. 5 inches behind the cold front. Even with upper troughing over the area, 500mb heights will still be around average which combined with increased solar insolation will lead to increased temperatures compared to Sunday, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Another weak surface cold front will descend into the southern Appalachians bringing some increased moisture, allowing for a chance for shower and storm development, mainly along the Piedmont. Models have trended slower in deepening the trough in response to the ridge in western CONUS.
The CONUS will remain in a highly amplified mid level flow pattern throughout the short term period, with a strong ridge out west and troffing in the east. Lift will be aided by the introduction of another dry and cooler airmass. Afternoon highs will still be quite warm through Mon, then cool from the middle and upper 80s to the lower 80s for Tue. High amplitude pattern forecast across the CONUS, with a strong H5 ridge over the Southwest U. , and a persistent trough from the Great Lakes region, across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley regions.
A frontal boundary will work into the northwest by the afternoon, and may provide just enough lift to generate an isolated storm or two, but moisture will be limited as the main concentration of moisture will be associated with the axis of the main trough to our east. Highs will be warmer today with readings in the upper 80s/low 90s in the northwest to mid 90s in the southeast. The upper 80s to near 90 degree mark will be almost to the I-85 corridor on Monday with the southeast still in the low to mid 90s.
401 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Upper trough axis now to our east by the looks of water vapor imagery. Massive upper ridge to our west, centered near Las Vegas.
348 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Record breaking heat continues through at least mid-week as exceptionally strong high pressure builds across the region. Afternoon showers and storms will be possible again today and tomorrow across the higher elevations of southern Mohave, San Bernardino, and Inyo counties.