Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ridge of high pressure builds in later today through tonight. and should diminish from west to east this afternoon and evening as the mentioned ridge moves into place. Sunday will then see flat ridging transition to dry west to northwest flow.
Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the 96 to 112 range. A cold front will move south through the area this evening/tonight and will bring additional showers and storms to the area.
Associated cold front will drop through the fa today. Clouds and cold advection will limit temperature recovery across the north to the 60s with warmer temperatures to the south. With cold advection continuing will see minimums in the lower 50s with 40s across the north.
The system will bring a cold front through the forecast area this morning. Gusty NW winds will develop by late morning as the cold front moves to the east. High pressure will build into Eastern Montana tonight diminishing the winds.
/issued 727 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ For the ArkLaTex, VFR/MVFR stratus and daybreak BR will quickly diminish with daytime mixing by 17/15-16z with mostly VFR skc as upper ridge increases over area.
Gusts of 35-40kts are possible following the highest edge of the forecast guidance with strong gradient winds, steep low level lapse rates and a modest pressure rise bubble around 3mb/3hr.
Earlier frontal boundary draped near the I-90 corridor has been convectively shoved well into central and southern Iowa as of 06Z, and unlike yesterday, it appears that feature will struggle to mix/advance back northward today with weak low level ridging building in from the west in advance of a cold front dropping south out of North Dakota and northern Minnesota.
Slightly cooler air following a weak cold front which crossed the area yesterday, and northwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level ridge building over the coast, will keep high temperatures a few degrees below normal today. On Sunday highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer as the ridge continues to amplify and shift east.
Showers and storms will affect the higher terrain this afternoon and evening with a lull expected overnight. The higher terrain will be the focus of any additional rainfall that occurs today, as southeasterly flow near the surface returns, which will promote moisture convergence along the ridges. Expect dry conditions overnight, as weak ridging will occur ahead of the deepening trough swinging toward the Western Great Lakes.
Surface dew points should be dropping in the west in the afternoon before elevated dewpoints in the 50s surge back south ahead of the cold front between 00 and 03 UTC.
As mid level ridging remains centered and situated across northern Mexico and extends far east, subsidence and warming is expected to continue with model readings of H85 temperatures ranging from 24-27C. For Sunday, another hot day is in store, but temperatures should be a few degrees less than compared to today as the ridge weakens slightly overhead due to a weak trough/low sliding south/southwest along the eastern periphery of the ridge.
The cold front is still looking to move into the western part of the forecast area near mid to late afternoon and quickly shift southeast. Looking to the south of this boundary, the low level enhanced flows look to be focused further south than previous forecasts were anticipating. This is when a deepening upper level trough, increasing shear as 70-80 knot mid level winds, and rather strong cold front arrives to provide the forcing needed to trigger the thunderstorms. With temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index values will soar into the mid to upper 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Surface analysis puts the western Atlantic ridge axis right across the region this morning, with ridging aloft already nosing into the region from the east. Weak storm motion with the higher moisture will mean locally heavy rainfall within some of this activity.
Do not expect any precipitation today with high pressure aloft in place and providing subsidence across the area.
The remnants of the MCS that moved across portions of the southeast are evident on satellite and radar imagery this morning, as associated low pressure lingers across southern Alabama/western Florida panhandle this morning.
Cyclogenesis over the wrn Great Lakes late tnt will help drive a cold front through srn WI by sunrise on Sun.
The higher terrain will be the focus of any additional rainfall that occurs today, as southeasterly flow near the surface returns, which will promote moisture convergence along the ridges. Expect dry conditions overnight, as weak ridging will occur ahead of the deepening trough swinging toward the Western Great Lakes.
It will be a cooler than normal day with highs in the 70's.
A dry cold front will continue moving south through Utah through this evening.
Weak high pressure aloft will prevail today. Expect a warm front to bring some light rain to the area mainly tonight and Sunday.
The main feature of interest this AM is that of an upper low over Mississippi that has been digging southeastward toward the Alabama Gulf Coast. With the upper feature expected to remain across the Alabama Gulf Coast today and into tonight, we would expect to see a north to south gradient in our rain chances with the best chances in the southern counties of Central Alabama closer to the low. The lower levels still promote onshore flow, and so we have deep moisture continuing to stream into the state through tonight with humid conditions remaining across the area.
Upper level low pressure across the central Gulf Coast region will persist through the day bringing a prevailing SW steering flow across the area. A spoke of mid/upper level energy extended east of this upper level low and was assisting the generation of the early morning convection flirting across our western NE Florida zones. with an intrusion of drier mid/upper level air trailing the upper level trough axis.
This activity was being maintained by a small closed low seen on water vapor imagery spinning over east central Mississippi. Lowest pops and warmest afternoon highs will be carried over our western zones where the eastern periphery of the 592dam ridge will continue to inhibit convection there. Highs today will range from the lower 90s west to the upper 80s southeast. Morning lows will continue above normal in the lower 70s at most locations.
For today, weak high pressure and dry air will be in place. A cold front will be on approach from the Mid Ms Valley, and this may bring a few showers or storms into our far northwest counties late night. On Sunday, increasing lift and instability will develop with the continued approach of the cold front.
An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a fairly deep, moisture-laden, and unstably stratified east-southeast flow, between deep layer ridge over the northern bahamas and a trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. The weather over the next several days will be driven by the interaction between a large-scale midlatitude anticyclone centered well north of the Florida Keys, and a somewhat more erratic and unpredictable Caribbean geopotential height field.
Medium A steady south/southeast wind will prevail this period between departing high pressure through the eastern Lakes and a trough of low pressure in the northern/central Plains. Nevertheless temps should reach well into the 70s with cooler readings near the lake due to an onshore component there.
With winds becoming more easterly as the high builds in, we will advect a little better moisture, especially in the low levels, back into the region. Maximum temperatures will approach the low 90s across the western peninsula and upper 80s for the east coast metro region, typical for this time of year. Through mid week: By Monday, models begin to build a dominant high pressure cell over the eastern CONUS and mid Atlantic waters, tightening surface pressure gradients, and increasing easterly flow over South Florida.
350 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 233 PM CDT Overall quiet conditions are expected through Monday, albeit turning warmer. While higher level clouds will continue to be streaming over the region tonight into Monday, warm air advection will continue to pump in a warmer airmass into Monday. As a result temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs on Monday should mainly be in the low 80s across the area.
Snow cameras and automated equipment show significant snow accumulations happening in the higher mountains of northwest CO so began the Winter Storm Warning an hour earlier. Active weather continues as the storms from the overnight hours exit western Colorado and are replaced by instability from an incoming 100 kt jet and cold front. These bands of cloud cover will initiate showers and thunderstorms later this morning across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado and begin the transition of the cooler airmass reaching the region.
A cold front moving through the area tonight and Monday will bring breezy to windy conditions along with much cooler temperatures.
301 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure dominates the Atlantic seaboard this afternoon, and increasingly southerly winds and mid/high level clouds are edging into the Midwest. Not only warmer with southerly winds, but increased cloud cover will limit radiation. The broad trough that is currently over the western half of the CONUS will be the driving force of this forecast. Waves moving out of this trough will ripple from SW to NE, resulting in a boundary and several smaller waves to follow until the main low moves out of the SW.
403 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure at the surface is located over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast US.
319 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Upper level southwesterly flow will slowly strengthen over the region as a trough digs into the western United States. Most areas should see high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, with a few locations along the I-49 corridor warming into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.
High temperatures Monday will be in the lower sixties over much of north central into northeast Minnesota and from 65 to 70 over much of northwest Wisconsin.
Confidence remains high on a continues dry forecast through the short term as high pressure at the surface and aloft remain nearly stationary over the eastern quarter of the nation.
The surface cold front will move south, aided by convection, with a little disagreement among the short term models regarding how far it will push. South of this axis, there is greater confidence in temperatures warming up to the lower to mid 80s for highs with strong south winds 25 to 35 mph (gusts 40+ mph at times).
335 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Tonight and Tomorrow: The ArkLaMiss will remain on the western periphery of a steep upper ridge that is positioned over the eastern half of the US. A disturbance in the lower and mid levels will begin to approach the region overnight from the SE. Best chances for showers tomorrow will exist in the southern portions of the region where moisture will be the highest.
306 PM PDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Cooler weather with breezy north winds early this week.
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 233 PM CDT Overall quiet conditions are expected through Monday, albeit turning warmer. While higher level clouds will continue to be streaming over the region tonight into Monday, warm air advection will continue to pump in a warmer airmass into Monday. As a result temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs on Monday should mainly be in the low 80s across the area.
with weak surface ridging set to replace it as the morning hours progress. Temperatures from the latest observations shows 60s ahead of the trough with cooler air behind it in the 50s. Winds in the warmer sector southerly with strongest gradient across central and eastern zones with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Behind the trough. Surface cold front sinking S and E into the CWA. with an upper low set up to our north and west. and H5 ridging to our east and south.
This wave is pushing a cold front southeast in to the region tonight. After a lull in activity during the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. Do expect the activity to eventually become a line of thunderstorms along the cold front, pushing southeast overnight.
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Early morning satellite imagery with GFS 500mb heights and winds showed a strong, negatively tilted longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest angling southeast toward the High Plains of Nebraska. A powerful upper level jet will round the base of the trough leading to a prolonged period for synoptic scale ascent, clouds, and precipitation.
Some additional cloud cover out of the WSW is trying to work its way more into the region, as an upper ridge translates into the OH Valley/SE states. The ridge will continue to shift eastward with models showing a disturbance moving into the northern periphery of the ridge in our area on Monday.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes.
A midlevel ridge will continue to extend across the southern Appalachian region through the period, with the center of high pressure at the surface shifting slightly southward across the Mid Atlantic region.
1031 AM PDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Cooler weather with breezy north winds into early this week.
A series of passing disturbances will maintain cooler than normal temperatures and breezy periods across our area through the middle of the week. Temperatures will then warm into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Northwest flow continues over central California between a northeast Pacific ridge and an upper low over the northwest US.
309 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Warm air advection ahead of a deep upper trough to the west produced several areas of showers through the day today, but this activity is finally clearing out as the best mid-level moisture shifts into Iowa. Additional showers and storms will likely develop later tonight ahead of a slow-moving cold front advancing across Nebraska. Upper trough to the west will gradually become more sheared in nature and edge eastward through the middle of the week which will allow the boundary to the west to slowly edge southeast into our area.
334 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Confidence remains high on a continues dry forecast through the short term as high pressure at the surface and aloft remain nearly stationary over the eastern quarter of the nation.
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 With the upper ridge now to our east and an upper trough deepening over the west, flow from the low to mid levels has become southerly. But with a tightening pressure gradient from a strengthening lee side trough, surface winds will be on the increase.
113 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures to begin the new workweek. Another clear and chilly night is in store, though several degrees warmer than last night on average. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as the high moves off to the NE and we start to see a milder southerly flow develop. Abundant warmth and dry wx will continue through midweek given well above normal upper ridge/heights. There remains a good deal of model variability concerning the northern stream flow which should suppress the anomalous ridge and send a cold front through the area toward the end of the week. Timing of the late-week front and low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes over the weekend remains uncertain - and therefore will utilize multi-model blend.
358 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure builds through Monday night.
Lows will likely remain in the lower 70s across the FL Big Bend, while dropping into the mid-upper 60s elsewhere across our area.
103 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Canadian high pressure remains established over the region into the middle of the upcoming workweek. High pressure is going to keep our area mainly sunny today with low humidity. Tonight, as the flow turns more northeast to east, a few low clouds may shift into the area and/or form near the Blue Ridge, but overall airmass stays dry enough that scattered clouds are all that is forecast. Temps staying cool although a few degrees warmer than this morning. Lows in the lower to mid 40s in the west and into the upper 40s in the Piedmont and foothills.
This is supported by an upper level ridge over the eastern United States. This upper ridge will shift east towards the east coast today through Monday night, increasing in strength and amplitude with time as an upper trough strengthens in the western U. As the upper ridge strengthens, a weak upper low/disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will shift west towards the Texas/Mexico border. Do not expect a return to the egregiously hot weather from last week, but slightly warmer and more humid air will return to Arkansas today and Monday.
326 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Jet streak currently rounding the base of the main Rockies trough, will lift E-NE, late this afternoon and this evening, helping to push a cold frontal boundary into NW KS. Warm and windy weather will be the main story for late tonight through Mon as the upper level trough across the Rockies deepens over the next 24 hours. As this trough deepens, pressure gradient across the plains will tighten. As the winds increase on Mon, still some uncertainty on the position of the cold frontal boundary expected to be located across north central KS.
The low end severe risk still seems appropriate. a surface boundary associated with low pressure over SE Sask. Main upper level trof is over the intermountain west with primarily southwest flow aloft.
The combination of non-calm winds and low-level WAA will keep overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night. Unseasonably warm temperatures are still expected on Monday beneath a retrograding upper ridge.
More noteworthy is a disturbance in the 850-700mb layer currently across Southeast Louisiana into Central Miss which is fcst to retrograde westward in association with an area of low pressure aloft across the Central Gulf of Mexico.
205 PM EDT Sun Oct 01 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north through mid week. However, given the aforementioned cloud expectations, readings could be a little warmer than they otherwise would be under clear skies and light winds. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue right through this part of the forecast.
1110 AM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with cold front now moving southeast into northwestern portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough continuing to dig south across the western US, with strong jet from the WA/OR coast to the Four Corners area. Cold front will move from west to east across the forecast area through the morning and midday hours, exiting south central SD early to mid afternoon.
Right now it looks as though redevelopment associated with the approaching cold front will not occur until late afternoon or early evening, and have made adjustments to POPs accordingly. By this afternoon an area of low pressure and cold front will begin working across the region.
On the plains, a cold front has dropped down out of Wyoming, bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures. Much cooler temperatures are also expected through tomorrow.
203 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A return to warmer than normal conditions while remaining somewhat unsettled is forecast for the next several days. Aloft, a blocky and slightly retrogressive pattern is forecast, with an increase in upper level ridging forecast this week. Isolated to scattered mainly diurnal convection is also forecast as the combination of surface convergence near a lee trough, abundant moisture through the column, and daytime heating/weak tropical impulses coming out of the Gulf are expected.
Highs will be in the lower 80s. Lows will range from the mid 50s along the TN River Valley to the lower 60s in the Delta. Latest model runs are starting to develop quite a bit of cloudiness over the area as another weak inverted trough moves through. Have cut the previous forecast a few degrees though it could be much cooler if clouds hang in and any precip develops.
High pressure will shift further away from the region today, allowing winds to veer from easterly to southeasterly. Due to the increasingly southerly component to the boundary layer flow, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and a slowly approaching cold front, winds will not drop off after sunset as they have the past few nights.
446 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will build across the region through mid week. A weakening cold front will move south across the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Monday with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures Monday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 north to the lower to mid 60s Downeast. Cool high pressure builds in Monday night with another chilly night. Right now, looks like a solid frost but unsure if it will get to freezing.
132 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days.
259 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure influences the weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
522 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through the first half of the week. increased cloud cover slightly for the evening with cirrus ahead of approaching upper ridge axis. High pressure will result in continued dry weather through the period with a warming trend in temperatures.
This should help the mid tropospheric trough dig over the western US during the next 24 hours. At the 700 mb level, a weak thermal ridge extended from AZ to western NE. This activity will probably all be ahead of the cold front, which should push into the northwest part of the forecast area by daybreak Monday.
Afternoon highs today, with afternoon sun, will be much closer to seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 80s.
There is currently an upper level trough diving southward into the Pacific Northwest. The work week begins with the trough closing off into an upper low.
305 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A strong upper jet now diving across the Pacific Northwest will lead to an amplification of the long wave trough over the western US, which will support a building of the upper ridge across the eastern US over the next two days.
A slow moving cold front will drift into the Ohio Valley for the second half of the week. bringing an increasing chance for rain along with cooler temperatures.
Synoptic Setup: A large ridge runs north from the southern US Plains through the Upper Mississippi Valley and backs into southern Saskatchewan. A large trough drops southern from the Northwest Territories through British Columbia and Alberta and then bottoms out over northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Between these two features a low pressure system has begun to spin up over northeast Montana. To the west another large ridge resides over the Gulf of Alaska.
234 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Starting to see some echoes forming across our eastern most zones this afternoon and this is in response to daytime heating and a tongue of increased moisture in association with an easterly trough of low pressure present in the 700-850mb layer field. Rapid increase in dewpoint temperatures this afternoon as this higher PWAT atmosphere retrogrades westward into our region overnight which will result in warmer overnight temperatures areawide.
There should also be at least scattered diurnal cumulus clouds across southeast MO and southwest IL as low level moisture advects northward into this area this afternoon as the low level flow becomes southerly.