Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
925 mb temperatures also seem to be the lowest in most guidance as well. Most guidance shows a weak upper ridge building back over the area on Friday. Warmer low level temperatures associated with this ridge and continued abundant sunshine should allow temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
The cold front pushing through and decent mixing today will bring some breezy northwest winds. The cold front will also knock back temps a bit into the upper 60s to low 70s today. High pressure building in for tonight and tomorrow will make the end of the work week very quiet for the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow lows to drop into the 40s, and Friday highs will again be cooler than late August averages in the upper 60s to low 70s. Sun - Wed Long wave trough over Hudson Bay moves northeast. Long wave ridge remains over the Desert Southwest through the period.
For the morning hours, humidity will begin to increase as dew points rise into the low to mid 70s by this afternoon. An upper-level trough advancing over the Great Lakes today will keep strongest flow aloft north of the local area, though with the arrival of aforementioned low-level moisture, strong destabilization is expected this afternoon and evening, with MLCAPE values ranging from 3500 to 4000 J/kg. With the northern placement of the strongest flow aloft, deep layer shear values will be somewhat contained, locally, though initial storms will develop ahead of a cold front across southern Iowa, where higher shear values are likely. Additional storms will develop ahead of the western extent of the broad west to east frontal boundary, underneath a weak mid-level trough embedded within northwest flow aloft.
/issued 226 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ An upper ridge is centered over the southwest part of the country and an upper trough is over the Great Lakes area and the northeast part of the country. Temperatures today across West Texas and southeast New Mexico are cooler courtesy of the front and cloud cover across the area. Southeasterly surface winds will bring in more low-level moisture across the area on Friday resulting in the development of thunderstorms mainly south and west of the Pecos River along the higher terrain.
High pressure is allowing for clear skies and calm winds across the area.
419 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A cold front will stall near the coast today. The pressure ridge behind the front moving into the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
A Canadian cold front continues to push southward through Central MT this afternoon.
High temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the Labor Day weekend as high pressure continues to dominate the region with dry conditions.
High pressure will pass south of Indiana today. Surface analysis early this morning shows a large high pressure system in place across the lower Mississippi river valley. Thus will trend toward a mostly sunny sky today with temperatures slightly warmer than persistence given the return warm warmer flow.
A low level jet will nose into western Missouri Friday morning and help to keep thunderstorms possible across the area through the day as the cold front stall and becomes nearly stationary. The low level jet weakens quickly by mid day however with only some isolated storms expected during the day.
One: The ridge will be on the move. The GFS had been consistent in keeping the ridge in a favorable position, though tonight, it has trended a tad drier. The Euro is the driest solution, allowing the ridge to exert influence far enough east to shunt precip just to our east. Two: Weaknesses in the ridge will rotate around giving instability to the equation. As the ridge continues to move, the main question will be does it make a beeline for the South and Central Plains or stay just shy of that to the west.
1203 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Winds will continue to diminish this evening as the deep upper trof over northern Ontario finally begins to lose it's grip on the Northland. Weak high pressure ridging will build in overnight, but that will be short-lived as another fast-moving short wave trof and associated cold front will arrive in northwest Minnesota very late tonight. High pressure then builds in with significant height rises Thursday night, with drier air somewhat breezy northwest winds at least for a few hours in the evening. Cool high pressure remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into this weekend before weakening and shifting eastward.
It will be a cool and breezy day across western and central North Dakota in the wake of an overnight cold front. High temperatures today will be around 10 degrees below normal in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. The strongest gusts, around 30 kts, may be late this morning when the low level gradient winds are strongest coincident with initial mix-out. However, given some mid level cloud decks, did not go for the lowest edge of the guidance envelope at this time.
This evening through Thursday H5 ridge to the west gets the top flattened off during the next 12 hours, allowing a weak impulse and slightly more midlevel moisture into the region during the day Thursday.
340 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 An area of low pressure over eastern North Dakota is producing gusty winds along the lee side of the Prairie Coteau. Based on the latest NAM, these winds will strengthen over the next few hours before subsiding behinds the passage of a cold front. Clear skies, light winds, and dew points, temperatures by Friday morning should range in the mid 40s, in western MN, to the lower 50s, in western SD. This disturbance appears a bit slower, which could cause warmer temps on Friday, especially in the northeast CWA.
329 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A cold front will stall near the coast Today. The pressure ridge behind the front moving into the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
945 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Very warm summer weather is forecast this week as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
Rain and storm chances will carry into Friday, as a short wave trough moves through the region.
Models bring a cold front into northern portions of the PAH forecast areas by Friday afternoon.
1048 PM MDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Upper ridging covers the western CONUS, keeping the northern plains in northwest flow. Surface map shows low pressure over Saskatchewan, with a warm front extending through the CWA, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. Behind the warm front, winds are southwesterly and light, and temperatures are rising into the 70s and 80s. The cold front will begin pushing into the region tonight, having little effect on the weather besides a wind shift and some cooler temps for Thursday. The upper ridge will rebuild for the holiday weekend, resulting in dry conditions and a warming trend. Models continue to show a trough breaking down the ridge midweek. This could bring widespread precip and much cooler temperatures to the region; however, the ECMWF isn't nearly as strong with the trough as the GFS.
KCDS may be far enough east to stay out of the low ceilings and remain VFR through the forecast. However, an upper level short wave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southern Colorado moving to the southeast. The Sangre de Cristos remain pretty quiet this afternoon despite the presence of the upper trough, likely due to a westerly surface flow. However, models suggest that there is the potential for some precipitation to form across the Texas Panhandle and as far south as this forecast area later tonight into early Thursday as the trough propagates to the southeast, and possibly even a bit more to the south as the upper ridge over the desert southwest begins to build northward. Thursday into Friday will see the ridge to the west build northward over the intermountain west.
247 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Early this morning, surface analysis indicated a cold front moving southeast across North Dakota. A few gusts of 20 mph have occurred along the Buffalo Ridge in the last hour. Cool high pressure will build back in for the weekend.
Models show the persistent mid-upper high shifting slightly west and becoming centered over southern California Friday. Coincident with this wave emerging onto the Plains later today, a southbound cold front tied to Canadian trough will reach Kansas by evening.
Cooler and drier air was still filtering into the state on northeasterly winds, with a CU field located across western and southern AR this afternoon.
404 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 An upper level trough dips south between Indiana and New England. At the surface, high pressure continues to sit squarely over southern Indiana and Kentucky. Today, expect areas west of Interstate 65 to reach the mid 80s and areas east of I-65 to remain in the low 80s. Tonight, dry weather continues with lows dropping to the low to mid 60s. Low-amplitude upper pattern will prevail, with the faster westerlies remaining solidly to our north, and a ridge expanding eastward from the Rockies. A cold front will drop into central or perhaps southern Indiana early in the period, bringing with it a small chance for showers and storms in some of our Indiana counties Friday afternoon.
More humid air was noted just to our W and S, along the periphery of the ridge axis.
High pressure is entrenched across the southeastern United States and will remain there through the short term period.
but given such moist/unstable conditions in regional 00z soundings, plus the presence of the sfc boundary/troffing aloft, maintained slim POPs beyond 06z. /issued 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ Wx map shows diffuse cool front/trough boundary over NE TX/N LA. Radar showing scattered thunderstorms developed over C and SC LA where the high temperatures reached the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.
Today, a return to hotter, drier conditions is expected as upper ridging builds eastward across the area, with accompanying increasing thicknesses and 850 hPa temperatures ranging from around +25C to +30C expected to yield highs in the middle to upper 90s for most. A few locations through the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys could see highs in the lower 100s, with highs right around 90 degrees across the higher terrain. Storms are possible this afternoon into this evening, though will be favored mainly across the higher terrain and adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. This weekend, the aforementioned upper ridge will slide west, yielding a transition to weak northwesterly flow aloft, as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Highs Friday will be a few degrees cooler from around 75 to 80.
1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals as continental air continues to spread into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and remain settled over the region through Friday.
345 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 (Today and Tonight) A dry forecast returns to most of West Central Texas early this morning, with the front dissipating and the upper level ridge building back into place.
/issued 811 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019/ Latest RAP model has broad mid level ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. On Thu the inverted trough will bring higher moisture to about the southern half of the state and provide the best rain chances there.
208 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A cold front will stall near the coast Today. The pressure ridge behind the front moving into the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
151 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A cold front will stall near the coast Today. The pressure ridge behind the front moving into the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
A broad, large upper level trough was over southeast Canada and the north central and northeast CONUS early this morning. At the surface, a large area of high pressure was centered over KY and TN. Today through Friday, the upper trough will flatten and retreat northward. At the surface, the high will drift east to the mid Atlantic coast by late Friday.
325 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 An upper/mid level blocking ridge will hold over the desert southwest through the remainder of the week, as a weak trough slowly swings through the northeastern US. At the surface, an inverted trough is forecast to develop off of southeastern Florida today and slowly pass west across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will maintain its influence over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. No significant weak mid-level disturbances will rotate on the periphery of the high through the BRO CWFA, and this will result in dry weather for the region.
300 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will slide eastward today. A little friction and moisture at the base of the longwave trough will generate scattered clouds and perhaps a sprinkle over the far NW today. A few showers will try to get into the far NW by sunrise Friday, but the cold front will be carrying most of that moisture from the Pacific. A slight tap of the Gulf still has to circle around the big OH/TN Valley high pressure to get here.
Otherwise, a cold front is situated back to the north and west of our CWA, and this boundary will drop through the area during the early part of the day, exiting over our southeast by afternoon. Friday will be a cooler day with highs generally lower 70s.
Cold front dropped across the forecast area overnight shifting winds to the east/northeast. A somewhat cooler air mass and easterly low level flow will lead to noticeable cooler temperatures for today. The chance of showers will continue through Friday into Friday evening before high pressure builds back in from the west for the weekend. High pressure over the region looks to dominate the weather over the weekend, bringing mainly dry conditions to the area.
553 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Under partly to mostly cloudy skies and northwest winds of around 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower 80s along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms covering the Lower and Middle Keys, and the adjacent nearshore and surrounding offshore waters of the island chain.
1020 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A cold front has nudged its way into the FL Panhandle this mrng. H100-H70 analysis shows an inverted trof extending from the nrn Bahamas to Jamaica combining with the eastern flank of a large anticyclone over the GOMex/Southern Plains to generate a deep lyr NE flow acrs central FL. Furthermore, despite the high PWat values at KTBW/KXMR, the overall moisture profile is mixed: H100-H70 mean RH arnd 80pct south of I-4, decreasing to arnd 70pct north of I-4. A mid lvl thermal ridge is place as well with H70 temps arnd 10C.
A broad, large upper level trough was over southeast Canada and the north central and northeast CONUS early this morning. At the surface, a large area of high pressure was centered over KY and TN. Today through Friday, the upper trough will flatten and retreat northward. At the surface, the high will drift east to the mid Atlantic coast by late Friday. High pressure will slide to the east by the end of the week, allowing weak return flow to develop across the region. This will allow warmer weather back into east Kentucky.
851 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Interaction between high pressure over the southeast U. and troughing extending through the western Atlantic is producing a persistent northeast wind flow over the Florida peninsula. Persistent northeast winds continue over the coastal waters as an inverted trough moves south of Florida and high pressure ridges in from the north.
502 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will slide eastward today. A little friction and moisture at the base of the longwave trough will generate scattered clouds and perhaps a sprinkle over the far NW today. A few showers will try to get into the far NW by sunrise Friday, but the cold front will be carrying most of that moisture from the Pacific. A slight tap of the Gulf still has to circle around the big OH/TN Valley high pressure to get here.
Expect mostly sunny skies the rest of the day with low humidity and beautiful temperatures in the low/mid 80's thanks to NW flow aloft and strong high pressure at the surface. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 59 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 54 83 61 / 0 0 0 0.
250 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Hot summer weather is forecast through the weekend as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
625 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A cold front will stall near the coast today. The pressure ridge behind the front moving into the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
/issued 356 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will maintain its influence over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. No significant weak mid-level disturbances will rotate on the periphery of the high through the BRO CWFA, and this will result in dry weather for the region.
A more stable pattern today with the norcal under stable southwest flow aloft between a high pressure ridge over the southwest U. and a trough off the coast.
Cooler air will filter into the region behind the front for the latter half of the week.
An area of low pressure over eastern North Dakota is producing gusty winds along the lee side of the Prairie Coteau. Based on the latest NAM, these winds will strengthen over the next few hours before subsiding behinds the passage of a cold front. Clear skies, light winds, and dew points, temperatures by Friday morning should range in the mid 40s, in western MN, to the lower 50s, in western SD. This disturbance appears a bit slower, which could cause warmer temps on Friday, especially in the northeast CWA.
/issued 345 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A dry forecast returns to most of West Central Texas early this morning, with the front dissipating and the upper level ridge building back into place.
447 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Early this morning, surface analysis indicated a cold front moving southeast across North Dakota. A few gusts of 20 mph have occurred along the Buffalo Ridge in the last hour. Cool high pressure will build back in for the weekend.
746 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will slide eastward today. A little friction and moisture at the base of the longwave trough will generate scattered clouds and perhaps a sprinkle over the far NW today. A few showers will try to get into the far NW by sunrise Friday, but the cold front will be carrying most of that moisture from the Pacific. A slight tap of the Gulf still has to circle around the big OH/TN Valley high pressure to get here.
For today, warm temperatures will prevail with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s at the beaches.
Cooler today, with showers expected overnight. Cold front dropped across the forecast area overnight shifting winds to the east/northeast. A somewhat cooler air mass and easterly low level flow will lead to noticeable cooler temperatures for today. The chance of showers will continue through Friday into Friday evening before high pressure builds back in from the west for the weekend. High pressure over the region looks to dominate the weather over the weekend, bringing mainly dry conditions to the area.
223 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019 High temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the Labor Day weekend as high pressure continues to dominate the region with dry conditions.
High pressure slowing building over the area will bring a warming trend which will extend through the weekend.
1011 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Water vapor imagery and mean layer analyses from CIMMS place mid- upper level ridging over the southwestern United States and also southeast of Bermuda. At the surface, high pressure centered over Tennessee reaches southwest to the Texas Gulf Coast. Hurricane Dorian is north of the Mona Passage, just southeast of an Atlantic ridge axis which stretches west to near the Bahamas. Locally, a broad and sloppy inverted trough extends from central Cuba to north of Nassau. This enhanced shower and storm coverage has since spread to the southwest of the Lower Keys. Steering flow in the lower troposphere is light northeasterly, so storm propagation should send some of this South Florida convection towards the island chain late this afternoon and early this evening.
An upper level trough dips south between Indiana and New England. At the surface, high pressure continues to sit squarely over southern Indiana and Kentucky. Today, expect areas west of Interstate 65 to reach the mid 80s and areas east of I-65 to remain in the low 80s. Tonight, dry weather continues with lows dropping to the low to mid 60s. Low-amplitude upper pattern will prevail, with the faster westerlies remaining solidly to our north, and a ridge expanding eastward from the Rockies. A cold front will drop into central or perhaps southern Indiana early in the period, bringing with it a small chance for showers and storms in some of our Indiana counties Friday afternoon.
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A cold front will stall near the coast today. The pressure ridge behind the front moving into the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
Highs Friday will be a few degrees cooler from around 75 to 80. An upper trough is evident on water vapor imagery sweeping across northern WI and the UP of MI. At the surface a cold front is dropping southeastwards through this same region. This will have implications on the ability to destabilize prior to the passage of the cold front.
The cold front has pushed through the CWA, and high pressure is sliding into the region. Beneath the cooler airmass, highs Friday will range from the mid 60s across north central SD to the upper 70s across northeastern WY. Upper ridging will rebuild for the weekend, resulting in a warming trend through Labor Day. Although subsidence should keep most areas dry, models have been showing increasing potential for isolated/scattered showers/storms with passing ridge riders.
Temperatures mainly in the lower 90s across the area. With the lower dewpoints from the Louisiana I-10 corridor northward, heat index values around 100-103 range. For coastal parishes S LA and most of SE TX, the higher dewpoints of the mid 70s yielding heat index values around 103-106 afternoon.
A thunderstorm complex will develop across portions of central and southern Nebraska this evening along an existing cold front as an upper level disturbance passes through the central Plains.
928 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Hot summer weather is still expected through the weekend as high pressure aloft continues to build over the Southwest.
Main edit area was the eastern CWA and across the Coteau region where wind gusts were increased a bit over the higher terrain. An area of low pressure over eastern North Dakota is producing gusty winds along the lee side of the Prairie Coteau. Based on the latest NAM, these winds will strengthen over the next few hours before subsiding behinds the passage of a cold front. Clear skies, light winds, and dew points, temperatures by Friday morning should range in the mid 40s, in western MN, to the lower 50s, in western SD. This disturbance appears a bit slower, which could cause warmer temps on Friday, especially in the northeast CWA.
Rest of the forecast region expected to remain dry Friday as high pressure starts to build back into the region for the Labor Day weekend.