Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, an upper low will drift across the state today into tonight. As the upper low approaches this morning forcing from a combo of dynamic lift and 850-600mb frontogenesis will act to saturate levels above 850mb and eventually produce precip into northeast Kansas.
516 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 A cold front movg into the Red River Valley with developing convection along and just behind this boundary. /Today through Saturday/ Cold front just beginning to cross Red River bordering OK/TX with dewpoints in that region falling thru 50's attm.
340 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms remain ongoing across a good portion of Oklahoma ahead of an upper low that is moving into the plains this morning. Decent coverage of showers expected for much of the day as the upper low moves east, but will keep thunder mention isolated and confined to the 12-18z time period.
Warmer air will move into the region from the northwest on Saturday with highs reaching the low 40s, in western Minnesota, to the mid 50s, west of the Missouri River. Highs could end up being a bit warmer due to favorable mixing winds.
The trough axis should pass east of the CWA by 03Z, and precipitation should shut off completely at this point.
641 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 One more dry day today, then the next chance of rain will be late tonight and into Saturday evening as low pressure develops in the Deep South and lifts northward. The associated cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
403 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was moving south and southeast through the I-10 corridor region and should be exiting our forecast completely by about 4 am. As of 1 am, temperatures had fallen into the mid 40s north of the cold front, while temperatures south of the front were in the low 60s. Slow clearing of clouds and continued cold air advection will result in cool highs today in the low 50s in the Big Country and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
An upper level low, which is partially cut off from the main flow, is currently situated over the four corners area, and will begin pushing east across norther Kansas during the day Friday. Ahead of this low, expect increasing clouds mainly along the Kansas border.
Deep layer ridging aloft will push to the SE as the next cold front enters the SE region.
Drier and warmer weather will develop later today and last through the weekend.
For now, think PEQ and FST may remain on the edge of the low cloud deck so leave mention out attm. /issued 345 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019/ Latest sfc obs/mesoanalysis places the cold front in the Big Bend Area, in the wake of an upper trough over the MS Valley. Instead, a stratus deck should bank up against the mtns for at least today, socking the lowlands in and yielding temps lower than what most models are calling for. Tue, a fast-moving trough will move thru the region, dropping a cold front into the area and taking temps closer to normal Tue afternoon. Upstream of this trough, a massive secondary trough is forecast to develop over the PacNW and amplify down the west coast, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under progressive SW flow aloft.
These restrictions are expected through the early afternoon hours as a cold front moves through the area. The anticipated cold front is moving across the northern part of Val Verde and Edwards Counties based on surface observations and Doppler radar trends. Since the cold front is pushing across the area early this Friday morning with clouds staying in place through early this afternoon, high temperatures have been adjusted to the cool side of things. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s across the Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor to 70s along and south of highway 90.
Today will be very similar to yesterday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few more clouds. Another cold front will be arriving in our area tomorrow night, bringing higher rain chances into the area. The highest rain chances are expected to be concentrated offshore, with forcing mechanisms a maximum in this area.
High pressure to the north to settle south across the area over the next 24 hours. High pressure with weak pressure gradient across the local coastal waters.
341 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 Main upper low has reformed over sern CO, early this morning, and will move eastward into wrn Kansas by this aftn. Overall will see periods of generally light snow this morning with the best focus over the higher terran and from Denver south to the Palmer Divide. By tonight, the upper level low will continue to move eastward into the central plains with drier air spreading across the area. Models have weak upper ridging along with weak upper level flow for the forecast area Saturday.
406 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Upper low situated across SERN CO this morning is expected to translate eastward to the Ohio Valley by mid-day Saturday.
327 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 A generally weak upper ridge pattern over the region will provide continued dry and relatively mild weather conditions over the next couple of days.
A brief stint of high pressure domininance has developed overnight and should last through Sun afternoon. Near normal lows continue tonight with above normal highs on Saturday, but increasing cloudiness Sat night will cool Sun afternoon highss and keep low temperatures for Sat and Sun night mild but still below freezing even in the Snake River plain.
The weak cold front passes through the region on Saturday bringing breezy conditions, mainly west of I-29.
/Issued 340 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019/ Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms remain ongoing across a good portion of Oklahoma ahead of an upper low that is moving into the plains this morning. Decent coverage of showers expected for much of the day as the upper low moves east, but will keep thunder mention isolated and confined to the 12-18z time period.
300 AM PST Fri Nov 22 2019 High pressure and weak offshore flow will bring dry and warmer weather this weekend.
This next system will be in the form of a closed mid and upper level low that will move out of the eastern Rockies into the Central Plains today. Tonight the mid and upper level low will shift directly over the area although strong CAA is not expected, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. QPF will be light and with temperatures hovering near freezing, accumulation of only a dusting to perhaps as much as a half inch over the northeastern CWA will be possible.
603 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Cooler and drier air today with afternoon clearing.
Little change to the weather through Saturday as an upper ridge remains positioned over the Pacific NW.
/Today through Saturday/ Cold front just beginning to cross Red River bordering OK/TX with dewpoints in that region falling thru 50's attm.
Areas in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle may see some freezing fog as surface temperatures may drop below 0C. The upper level low in western Kansas will slowly twirl away from the region tonight through Saturday.
A low pressure system will continue to depart the area today. The broad low pressure system is currently centered over eastern Colorado, with some low clouds lingering over portions of Utah and southwest Wyoming. However, the arrival of the weakening back edge of the low this afternoon will bring some additional cloudiness, primarily in the mid and high levels. In the wake of the low, temperatures will again be on the cool side, with maxes running up to 5F below seasonal normals. For the weekend, high pressure building off the California coast will result in a generally dry and stable north to northwest flow.
859 AM PST Fri Nov 22 2019 High pressure and weak offshore flow will bring dry and warmer weather this weekend.
Upper level low resided over Southeast Colorado late this morning. with mid level drier air beginning to wrap around into the low. the upper low is expected to continue its eastward trek into the Plains with areas of light drizzle and rain chances remaining possible across the CWA. temps ranged from upper 30s to upper 40s north to south with high temps looking to be just a couple degrees warmer.
/issued 345 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019/ Latest sfc obs/mesoanalysis places the cold front in the Big Bend Area, in the wake of an upper trough over the MS Valley. Instead, a stratus deck should bank up against the mtns for at least today, socking the lowlands in and yielding temps lower than what most models are calling for. Tue, a fast-moving trough will move thru the region, dropping a cold front into the area and taking temps closer to normal Tue afternoon. Upstream of this trough, a massive secondary trough is forecast to develop over the PacNW and amplify down the west coast, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under progressive SW flow aloft.
944 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Skies continue to be mostly clear with temperatures rising into the low to mid 30s over snowpack and mid 30 to around 40 without snowpack. High pressure has moved south of the area located in NW Iowa at 09z. Increasing south-southwest winds today and warmer air at the 925/850 mb layer will advect eastward with westerly winds in that layer. Net result will be temps this aftn in the lower to middle 30s snow areas to upper 30s/40 in non-snow areas in SE ND/WC MN. Suspect the higher terrain areas along the escarpment from Walhalla to west of Grand Forks will be warmer than the immediate Red River valley. Saturday will see high temps above freezing once again with highs in the 35-40 range.
1242 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Skies continue to be mostly clear with temperatures rising into the low to mid 30s over snowpack and mid 30 to around 40 without snowpack. High pressure has moved south of the area located in NW Iowa at 09z. Increasing south-southwest winds today and warmer air at the 925/850 mb layer will advect eastward with westerly winds in that layer. Net result will be temps this aftn in the lower to middle 30s snow areas to upper 30s/40 in non-snow areas in SE ND/WC MN. Suspect the higher terrain areas along the escarpment from Walhalla to west of Grand Forks will be warmer than the immediate Red River valley. Saturday will see high temps above freezing once again with highs in the 35-40 range.
Chances for rain will diminish from west to east mainly during the afternoon Saturday, but enough cloud cover and low level moisture hang around for some light rain/drizzle as the upper trough continues eastward.
Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today with the snow covered area reaching into the low to mid 30s and the snow free areas in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Morning low temperatures to start the weekend will be quite cold dropping into the low to mid 20s across the entire CWA and possibly seeing the upper teens further north in areas of heavier snow from the aforementioned storm system.
1210 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Light rain showers will accompany the approach and passage of a cold front across the region this morning. Rain and snow shower chances will persist over the weekend with passage of low pressure. Any snow on the ridges should be brief and inconsequential. The lack of boundary layer moisture and quickly-building low-level ridging tonight will shutdown chances for typical post-frontal lake- induced showers despite northwest flow. Temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight, with marginally cooler air in place than we saw Thurs morning.
Closed low over the Plains states will allow a frontal boundary to linger near the forecast area and provide some focus for more rounds of rain. Precip expanding over w TN and n MS at his time represents the next round to arrive tonight, and it will be slow to exit as the closed low, though opening into an H5 trough as it moves into the MS/OH Valleys, will keep us beneath a moist sw flow Saturday. Once the best rain area moves east Saturday afternoon, patchy light rain will follow as the H5 trough passes overhead late Saturday afternoon through evening.
105 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Increasing chances for rainfall through late tonight and into Saturday evening as low pressure develops in the Deep South and lifts northward. The associated cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
146 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Looks like a quiet weather pattern will develop this weekend as the upper low over the western high plains continues to move east away from the area into the Ohio Valley and then into the eastern states.
then dry/mild for the weekend An upper low pressure system crossing through Kansas has produced a swath of snow which has impacted our southern zones today. The higher snowfall amounts of 1-4" have been confined to primarily Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell counties. The snow will be ending in the next few hours as the upper low pressure system departs into eastern KS. Afternoon temps will be noticeably warmer than the last couple days with highs mainly 50-55F. The warmer temps will be accompanied by increasing northwest winds in the afternoon with gusts of 25 mph.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 50s along the coast.
This low will produce a chilly northeast wind flow. The northerly winds and dense overcast will keep temps nearly steady in the lower to mid 40s through the day. Low level winds will decrease, allowing temps to radiate down to about freezing in most places.
1113 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Cooler and drier conditions can be expected for the remainder of the day with clouds gradually diminishing later this afternoon into early this evening.
943 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 Sent an update this morning to fine tune the expected coverage of diminishing freezing fog this morning and the return of freezing fog tonight. Warmer temperatures today will provide some melting which will erode the edges of the snow field and provide some low level moisture to support those chances of freezing fog. ---BMickelson Previous A generally weak upper ridge pattern over the region will provide continued dry and relatively mild weather conditions over the next couple of days.
1248 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Cooler and drier conditions can be expected for the remainder of the day with clouds gradually diminishing later this afternoon into early this evening.
Lows will be in the low to middle 20s, coolest across the north and warmest near Lake Michigan. Highs will be in the upper 30s across the Northwoods, and in the lower 40s elsewhere.
Most of this activity is behind a cold front which has moved into portions of central Mississippi. Low pressure is expected to develop along the cold front over northeast Louisiana this evening and then move northeast tonight. As this low moves along the front, it will help to increase the amount of showers across the region tonight. High pressure will start to build into the region bringing a dry but cool afternoon for the region.
High pressure offshore the southeast US coast continues to dominate the South Florida weather pattern. Winds will become a little more southeasterly to even more southerly to start the weekend with high temps continuing to warm into the low to mid 80s across the region.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm, depict lower amplitude broad troughing confined to most of the northern CONUS. To the south, a massive and still sprawling low amplitude middle and upper anticyclone centered over Southern Mexico, covers the much of the entire southern half of the CONUS as Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico, the Bahamas including South Florida and the Florida Keys. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest available marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 200 pm, detail a near 1030 mb cool season high near Omaha. East of that, a cold front extends from the St Lawrence Valley southwest to Eastern Texas. Closer to the Keys, a 1021 mb center of ridging located east of Jacksonville.
Low temperatures will be a good 10 degrees warmer than this morning, only bottoming out in the 20s. Little in the way of cold air advection behind the trough/boundary, and thermal profiles will actually continue to moderate with highs in the 40s to near 50.
823 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 High pressure extending across the region will keep light and variable winds across the area overnight. VFR conditions should hold for much of tonight, but high pressure keeping light winds and limited cloud cover in place will favor some patchy fog development toward daybreak. High pressure settles across the local coastal waters overnight with light onshore flow becoming S/SE 5-10 knots south of Sebastian Inlet and S/SW to the north.
715 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Closed upper low currently over the Plains states to open and move eastward overnight through tomorrow as developing surface storm system lifts through the Deep South.
Most of the forecast area will see little to no accumulation with the highest likelihood of a very light dusting of snow across portions of northern Missouri where temperatures are closer to freezing. Not a whole lot of CAA behind this system so temperatures will push back into the 40s by tomorrow afternoon under cooler northwesterly flow.
At the surface a diffuse warm front was oriented north-south over the eastern Dakotas with a surface pressure trough over eastern Montana. Lows tonight will be warmer as a result of maintained boundary layer mixing with low temperatures forecast to be in the mid 20s across the state.
Satellite images show some improvement this afternoon, but we expect the stratus to largely remain and expand to fill the valleys again this evening under the continued influence of a ridge.
The clouds will hold high temperatures down in the low 40s for areas in northwest Arkansas with upper 40s to low 50s across central and eastern Oklahoma.
224 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 20z surface analysis had trough from south central Canada into central MT. Water vapour had upper low over KS with weak ridging over the northern Rockies into the northern plains.
Northern light precipitation is result of upper low axis approaching, with rapid precipitation exit later this evening as axis moves through. Lack of cold air advection and clouds would suggest leaning warmer, while fresh snow would trend cooler. Hedged a couple of degrees cooler in areas with more snow, but for rest of the area with overcast skies hedged to the warmer side of the spread.
518 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 00Z TAF CYCLE As the upper level low pressure system continues to slowly exit farther away from New Mexico this evening, precipitation will continue to dwindle and diminish. However, patches of remnant low level moisture could lead to the redevelopment of low stratus clouds and fog/freezing fog in portions of central and north central New Mexico. This upper level low continues to move slowly to the east and northeast, but there remains enough wrap around moisture to keep areas of cloud cover moving across the eastern and northeastern sections of the state. Closed upper level low moves east and northeast this evening and overnight, taking most of the cloud cover and snow flurries with it.
Meanwhile, a developing upper low over the central Plains is expected to continue deepening overnight.
653 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Latest infrared satellite images show scattered cirrus streaming overhead with surface observing sites reporting temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmer underneath clouds. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today with the snow covered area reaching into the low to mid 30s and the snow free areas in the mid 30s to low 40s.
/issued 146 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019/ Looks like a quiet weather pattern will develop this weekend as the upper low over the western high plains continues to move east away from the area into the Ohio Valley and then into the eastern states.
Otherwise, expect temperatures on Saturday to be a bit warmer than today, with highs generally around 40 degrees.
As of writing, a cold front is currently sagging through South Texas. An expansive cloud deck has kept temperature cooler than expected this afternoon. Clouds will gradually clear out resulting in high temps in the low to mid 70s with a light northerly wind.
409 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 20z surface analysis had trough from south central Canada into central MT. Water vapour had upper low over KS with weak ridging over the northern Rockies into the northern plains.
647 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 VFR expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all terminals as high pressure remains well in control of the area weather. High pressure offshore the southeast US coast continues to dominate the South Florida weather pattern. Winds will become a little more southeasterly to even more southerly to start the weekend with high temps continuing to warm into the low to mid 80s across the region.
With the cold front just south of CHA and a low level inversion setting up, feel pretty confident that all terminals will remain mostly IFR through the night. Northerly winds turn southerly tomorrow as a warm front lifts north through the area.
Lift will focus more eastward overnight as mid level trough axis passes and coverage of drizzle should decrease by Saturday morning. Temps will be slow to cool overnight beneath extensive low cloud cover and expectations remain that most, if not all, precip will have ended before temps cool below freezing across NE OK into far NW AR.
We continue to err on the warmer side of model guidance tonight due to extensive cloud cover and the lack of cold air advection.
227 PM PST Fri Nov 22 2019 High pressure and weak offshore flow will bring dry and warmer weather this weekend.
The trough will move through central and eastern SD tonight.
306 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 Higher pressure and warmer temperatures continued to build into the region today, especially south of the Missouri River, away from the snow pack. Given the persistence of valley freezing fog overnight recently and clear skies and light winds expected, would not be surprised to have another round of freezing fog tonight.
638 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Increasing chances for rainfall through late tonight and into Saturday evening as low pressure develops in the Deep South and lifts northward. The associated cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
422 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 Higher pressure and warmer temperatures continued to build into the region today, especially south of the Missouri River, away from the snow pack. Given the persistence of valley freezing fog overnight recently and clear skies and light winds expected, would not be surprised to have another round of freezing fog tonight.
This low pressure system will move northeast, lifting the main swath of rain up across the Cumberland Plateau through mid morning. But, lots of low level moisture will remain in place as a mid/upper level trough moves overhead later today and tonight. Chilly air will accompany the trough with many areas not climbing out of the 40s to lower 50s today.
Cold front has pushed through the offshore waters this evening.
1132 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Trailing pv anomaly under the mid/upper level trof will pivot eastward across northern Oklahoma near the Kansas border of south central/southeast Kansas overnight. Northern light precipitation is result of upper low axis approaching, with rapid precipitation exit later this evening as axis moves through. Lack of cold air advection and clouds would suggest leaning warmer, while fresh snow would trend cooler. Hedged a couple of degrees cooler in areas with more snow, but for rest of the area with overcast skies hedged to the warmer side of the spread.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Higher pressure and warmer temperatures continued to build into the region today, especially south of the Missouri River, away from the snow pack. Given the persistence of valley freezing fog overnight recently and clear skies and light winds expected, would not be surprised to have another round of freezing fog tonight.