Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
734 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible until a cold front passes through the area on Monday. High pressure centered to the northwest of the area will spread in behind the front. Convection that has developed in the lower Ohio Valley will move east through the night. Cold front will move through the area tomorrow. After the front moves through, clouds will decrease as high pressure starts to build in.
Monday a cold front struggles to move through the area as the upper s/w sweeps through which should again destabilize the atmosphere and bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cold front is pretty diffuse at that point and hard to pinpoint but it may well not be all that relevant to where the storms initiate or focus for that matter with the increasing instability aloft.
1046 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moisture will increase in the southerly flow between high pressure off the coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moisture will increase in the southerly flow between high pressure off the coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
Despite the seeming lack of rainfall, no changes will be made to the inherited Flash Flood Watch given the high chances of rain tomorrow, at times potentially heavy.
933 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible until a cold front passes through the area on Monday. High pressure centered to the northwest of the area will spread in behind the front. Cold front will move through the area tomorrow. After the front moves through, clouds will decrease as high pressure starts to build in.
Winds still expected to veer to the southwest and decrease some by later tonight as high pressure moves offshore to the southeast.
533 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern MT, with frontal boundary stretching southeast into the Black Hills area. Cold front stretches southwest from the low across ID and northern NV. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low over the Southern Plains, with positively tilted ridge extending from the Southern Rockies to the northern high plains. Skies are mainly sunny across the area with temps in the 80s to around 90 degrees across the plains, 70s over the higher Black Hills. Warm conditions will continue into the upcoming week as ridging holds fairly strong across the region. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s and lower 90s again, ahead of slowly approaching cold front.
625 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows an upper level low over extreme southwest Ontario. This low was dropping southeast and will pass across Lake Superior and eastern Wisconsin/lower Michigan overnight. This system will be weakening through the night as it begins to become absorbed into a stronger upper level low dropping south from Hudsons Bay.
The low level winds will back to the southwest this afternoon, lifting the southern edge of the clouds shield from south to north across the area. Upper level westerly confluent flow will allow strong high pressure (1034-1036 MB) to translate east through the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday.
1021 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A weak area of low pressure will pass well north of the region late tonight and Tuesday.
945 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon. An upper level disturbance tracking across the lower Great Lakes will result in snow for parts of the area tonight. High pressure will offer a temporary dry period Tuesday with temperatures a little below normal.
Snow mixing with freezing rain will continue today, causing difficult travel conditions through the day.
Next cold front expected to spread near KCDS by mid or late evening and we are siding with faster solutions - then through KPVW and KLBB in the following couple or three hours. /issued 302 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018/ A persistent rex block off the west coast of the US will keep large scale troughing over much of the CONUS this week. Another cold front will continue to back door into the area tonight. Temperatures will be cold enough at the surface for freezing precipitation although it will be very light. Drizzle or freezing drizzle may be the more dominant precipitation type given how light the precipitation will likely be.
A sharp trough approaching from the northwest will intensify these snow showers overnight across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A stronger trough over the Great Lakes, central and eastern Canada has shifted this further south from previous forecasts. While this prevents a stronger surface cyclone, heavy snow accumulations still look probable somewhere across the Plains/Midwest given multiple rounds or prolonged light/moderate snow. Only KMKT will have any impacts in the next 6 hours as the bulk of the lower cigs/vsbys will occur in far southern Minnesota.
/issued 330 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018/ The majority of the pre-frontal convection has diminished over South Florida this morning as the cold front continues it progress southward over the peninsula of Florida. The boundary will stall over the southern part of the peninsula today into Tuesday as high pressure builds to the south over the Greater Antilles. As the next mid-level trough digs through the nation by mid-week, another frontal boundary will push south and eastward towards the region by late week. High pressure will hold over South Florida, which will keep us slightly drier and warmer.
Weak cold front moving very slowly toward the area and is just reaching the northern edge of the forecast area as of 4am. Expect the front to dissipate as it approaches the coast this morning, likely not pushing offshore along most of the coast as a coastal trough develops this afternoon. This will also lead to a mostly cloudy sky through the day and cooler temperatures. highs in the lower to mid 60s. As coastal trough pushes inland tonight and tomorrow, onshore flow increases as well as isentropic lift. Temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer Tuesday with a moderate southerly flow above the surface. As an upper level trough slides across the central U. 7" with the highest values over the waters and the northern Coastal Bend.
The high res NAM remains on the cooler side of the guidance, however, as it is more aggressive with low level cloud cover thus keeping temperatures down in the 40s and 50s across much of the area.
305 AM MST Mon Feb 5 2018 Snow that has been occurring over the southwest part of the forecast area overnight will diminish this morning as high pressure builds into Northeast Montana. Skies will clear over the northeast half of the region today and remain mostly clear tonight with high pressure over the area. Another high pressure system moves through Tuesday Night with partly cloudy skies and low -5 to -15 in most areas.
High pressure center south of the region will allow for cold temperatures Tuesday morning in the negative teens to possibly negative 20s.
604 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon, offering colder temperatures with lingering flurries ending this morning. An upper level disturbance tracking across the lower Great Lakes will result in snow for parts of the area tonight. High pressure will offer a temporary dry period Tuesday with temperatures a little below normal.
As high pressure shifts off to the east through the day, winds will turn from northeasterly to southeasterly. For the most part, we will get only the southern edge of this high, as it is forecast to quickly move eastward today. But enough influence to bring brief clearing through this afternoon along and north of I-10 and cooler air with highs this afternoon in the upper 50s to lower 60s, near seasonal levels.
High pressure over the region will bring dry weather and very warm temperatures today. Breezy and slightly cooler weather will arrive Tuesday as a weak cold front passes through the Four Corners.
534 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 The center of high pressure will rapidly move out of the Central Plains this morning, and into the Mississippi valley and southern plains later today. As surface pressure falls across the southern High Plains, winds will rapidly turn northerly as a cold front moves from northwest Kansas into he Panhandles between noon and mid afternoon.
Along the coast, winds will remain around 10 to 15 mph and temps slightly cooler (low 60s). High pressure will build to our north and move offshore by early Tuesday, and a front will move through the Southeast.
629 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A pressure ridge approaching from the west will extend into the area through tonight. The ridge will be off the coast Tuesday.
Blocking ridge remains in place over the eastern Pacific keeping the storm track well to the north of the region.
Drier air moving into the region in the wake of a cold front now located across the south- central peninsula will continue to move into the region the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. Prevailing IFR to LCL LIFR cigs along with MVFR/IFR vsbys will gradually improve into the MVFR to VFR range after 16Z as the low clouds and fog slowly erode as drier air moves into the area in the wake of a cold front. A southward moving cold front will gradually push the ongoing sea fog beyond the waters by this afternoon. High pressure builds in behind the front and moves east with northwest to north winds the remainder of today veering into the northeast and east at 15 knots or less tonight through Tuesday.
510 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 At 2 AM, a ridge of high pressure was located along the Mississippi River. This ridge was producing mainly clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A short wave trough, currently located over the western Dakotas, will move southeast through western Iowa this morning. As this short wave trough moves into northern Illinois late this afternoon, the snow will quickly taper off from the west and north.
High pressure over the region will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures today. Breezy and slightly cooler weather will arrive Tuesday as a weak cold front passes through the Four Corners.
The weak cold front traversing the coverage warning area early this morning will continue this southward trend into south Florida and the FL Straits. High pressure will move out of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys today and toward the Atlantic Seaboard, then push off of the east coast overnight. Overnight lows generally in the 50s, except some M-U 40s possible in normally cooler locations north of I-4 (north Lake/inland Volusia).
a weather disturbance is currently moving toward the far northern zones of our forecast area early this morning ahead of its associated cold front. Looking for high temperatures to range from the low 30s to low 40s along the Kansas Nebraska border to the mid/upper 50s in Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties. For tonight through Tuesday precipitation chances increase from west to east as deep moisture moves across the area ahead of an upper level trough. Lows tonight in the 12 to 18 degree range with highs Tuesday in the low 20s (east) to upper 30s (west).
Another cold front will move southwestward into the region late tonight. Another cold front is expected to push into the area Tuesday morning cooling temperatures down for Tuesday afternoon.
In the wake of last evenings frontal passage, a much cooler day is expected today with the main issue how much cooler. The thickness of the cloud layer (most models indicate a thin cloud layer) and if the warmer airmass above can mix through it to the surface will have an impact on the high temperatures. Have gone with an average between the cooler NAM and some Hi-Res models and the warmer global and other Hi-res models as at least some insolation will make to the surface with below normal highs expected.
Some convection also possible with cooler temps moving in aloft. Trough passage tonight will be good enough to knock off 5 to 10 degrees from the max temps for Tuesday, or falling back in line with normal for a day. Lingering northwest flow will continue light snowfall for the northern Colorado mountains Tuesday night as the latest trough exits the region.
This lee-side low/trough will gradually move southeast across the high plains as winds shift into the north and northwest. With such a shallow depth of cold air and some drier air aloft, not sure most areas will receive much snowfall outside of the mountains and ridges east of I-25. For late tonight and Tuesday, models are in good agreement showing the base of the secondary upper level trough to the south of Wyoming as it rapidly moves east through the day. Expect most of the snow associated with this trough to remain to the south.
This trough will enter western Missouri late this afternoon. Forecast soundings are all below freezing, so expect this to be an all snow event, with accumulating snow staying over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. With clouds increasing over the area today ahead of the trough, highs will struggle to reach guidance temperatures which are below normal. Areas along and south of I-44 in MO and I-70 in IL will see a mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. As loss of ice crystals and warmer WetBulb temps aloft moves in Tuesday evening, could become more of a freezing drizzle event as pcpn tapers off late Tuesday night for southern half of forecast area.
High pressure will remain in place near the West Coast through the remainder of the week. The warmer hills are likely due to the breezy to gusty NE winds currently being reported.
A combination of weak east-southeast winds, isentropic ascent, and moisture advection associated with a warm front will allow ceilings to fall to IFR by 5Z and LIFR with fog by 8Z at the I-35 sites. In the wake of last evenings frontal passage, a much cooler day is expected today with the main issue how much cooler. The thickness of the cloud layer (most models indicate a thin cloud layer) and if the warmer airmass above can mix through it to the surface will have an impact on the high temperatures. Have gone with an average between the cooler NAM and some Hi-Res models and the warmer global and other Hi-res models as at least some insolation will make to the surface with below normal highs expected.
1036 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A secondary cold front has pushed off the coast. High pressure will build into the region this afternoon.
637 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A sharp cold front will push east and off the New Jersey coast late this morning. After a period of generally fair and colder weather for much of today and this evening, a weak area of low pressure will pass well north of the region late tonight and Tuesday, with a secondary shot of cold air and some light snow spreading over the northwest half of the state during this period.
It'll be hard to rule out some patchy freezing drizzle on the back edge of the departing snow Tuesday evening, but the predominant precipitation type appears to be mostly snow.
638 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Prevailing IFR to LCL LIFR cigs along with MVFR/IFR vsbys will gradually improve into the MVFR to VFR range after 15Z as the low clouds and fog erode as drier air moves into the area in the wake of a cold front. Aloft broad cyclonic flow resides over most of the nation as a couple of short wave troughs traverse through it. To the south a ridge across the Yucatan and Cuba gradually builds east to the Atlantic. The high pressure tracks east and exits to the Atlantic Tue afternoon. The cold front settles down the state. as the high pressure sliding across the eastern states provides a drier northerly behind the front.
348 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2018 We'll see a bit of a change in the overall weather pattern today with a short wave moving over this ridge currently in place. As for the remainder of the day Monday, this wave will bring cooler temperatures compared to what we've been seeing over the last few days. Even with this slightly cooler weather, temperatures are still expected to be roughly 5 degrees above average for this time of year.
1030 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Zonal-progressive flow across the continental United States supports an eastward moving high pressure system centered over the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures are in the upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
522 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A sharp cold front will push east and off the New Jersey coast late this morning. After a period of generally fair and colder weather for much of today and this evening, a weak area of low pressure will pass well north of the region late tonight and Tuesday, with a secondary shot of cold air and some light snow spreading over the northwest half of the state during this period.
At 2 AM, a ridge of high pressure was located along the Mississippi River. This ridge was producing mainly clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A short wave trough, currently located over the western Dakotas, will move southeast through western Iowa this morning. As this short wave trough moves into northern Illinois late this afternoon, the snow will quickly taper off from the west and north.
Northwest flow will continue the chance for showers through Monday, but mainly in the higher terrain in the north and along the coast.
1048 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure building into the area today and tonight will move off the coast Tuesday.
601 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 Broad area of high pressure across the Plains and into the Midwest on the surface analysis this morning. Clear skies and snow cover with the ridge axis moving through the region this morning have set up very efficient cooling. A chilly start to the morning with winds coming around to more southerly as the ridge gives way to a quick and aggressive wave moving out of the WNW and rippling through Illinois. The northern tier of the state will see the higher amounts and an earlier start.
Water vapor satellite loop this morning at 0730Z showed the upper trough moving across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extended from eastern North Dakota southwest into southern Wyoming while a pre-frontal trough was present across western Kansas into northeast Nebraska. A breezy and windy day is expected today in the wake of the cold front moving through this morning. Highs today will be in the 60s with lows tonight in the lower 40s. Progressively colder this week as a series of cold fronts push into the area. CAA remains in place into Tuesday with a highly amplified western ridge and eastern trough pattern in place.
610 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A cold front currently over northern Neb will rapidly drop south across the forecast area during the morning hours. Tonight-Wed: This secondary shot of cooler air will lead to slightly cooler than normal temps for tonight through Tue.
622 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A cold front is presently pushing through the James River Valley very early this morning and should be through the entire CWA by 13Z. Otherwise, an upper level trough will deepen over the central CONUS today, and with cold air advection behind the aforementioned front, rapid surface pressure rises, and winds increasing to 40 to 50 kts at the top of the mixed layer, it will be a windy day. Even so, by later in the night winds will begin to increase again as the gradient tightens in response to a rapid intensification of low pressure over the Great Lakes area.
438 AM PDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Expect mild and dry conditions through the week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest.
Global model guidance is in generally good agreement in the short term, depicting a digging ERN CONUS trof which sends a reinforcing cold front through the area late tonight. Ahead of this feature, plenty of sun along with a warming low level temperature profile (thermal ridge) will yield a seasonably mild afternoon.
/issued 333 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ A broad upper trough is over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest and extends southward towards the Gulf Coast states. Winds will start to come around to the north today as a cold front approaches the area. On Tuesday, the upper trough deepens and shifts a little more to the east.
626 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Surface winds will veer this morning in advance of a cold front arriving later this morning.
Rain chances increase this evening and overnight as cold front gradually approaches the region, so VCSH placed in TAFs after 21-23z.
After visibilities improve mid morning, all but the far southeast should be dry with VFR conditions for most of the day, though showers are possible by late afternoon as an upper low develops across northern illinois tonight. The low slowly pulls away Tuesday evening with POPS becoming trimmed to the eastern CWA.
Based on rainfall and current observations, the cold front is right along I-65 and will be pushing eastward through the rest of the overnight period. Clouds will remain across the area as an upper low will swing through during the day. Look for isolated to scattered rain chances with the upper low through the afternoon.
647 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Strong winds will develop today as a cold front pushes through the region. A very powerful storm system will develop over the next 36 hours across the Great Lakes region as a broad upper level trough with a textbook PV signature merges with a cutoff low over the Tennessee River Valley.
Expect all areas of fog to clear by this afternoon, then temperatures should warm up under the building ridge aloft.
A cold front arrives in the late evening and is currently forecast to move through the TAF sites between 05Z and 07Z.
High pressure will continue to build through the middle of the week.
Then tonight, as cold front gradually approaches, additional showers will continue, especially out wet. Rain chances increase this evening and overnight as cold front gradually approaches the region, so VCSH placed in TAFs after 21-23z.
Drier air surging into western Kansas behind the front will reinforce the dry air mass already in place across the high plains limiting instability. A cold front pushing through western Kansas early this morning will cap climbing temperatures earlier in the day today. Should see lows well down into the 30s(F) tonight with the lower 40s(F) possible in south central Kansas.
524 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Low amplitude trough sits across the central to western CONUS with a strong wave pushing across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains.
/issued 329 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Drier air continues to filter into the area early this morning in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Northerly flow will continue on Tuesday with a stronger high pressure system moving southward into Texas.
A cold frontal boundary is over the Florida Panhandle in the vicinity of the Apalachicola River and is sweeping eastward with mainly showers with a few isolated thunderstorms ahead of it.
1035 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A cold front that was accompanied by widespread showers, with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds during the overnight had translated well east of the forecast area. The partially closed upper trough currently moving across our region will become absorbed back into the broad long-wave trough as it deepens in the Midwest and central Plains region today. A reinforcing short wave will push the trough far southward into the northern GOM. Without sufficient moisture advection ahead of this next trough/front tonight, rainfall does not look like a possibility.
High pressure building over the region will provide dry weather through Tuesday.
A very strong ridge of high pressure has built along the Western US, bringing clear skies across California. With a warming airmass across the region, temperatures are running several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Warm temperatures will be the story for the next several days, as the anomalously strong ridge lingers across the West. These forecast high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.