Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Disturbances moving through the flow will bring periods of increased clouds and perhaps isolated/scattered flurries or sprinkles, but any lingering precipitation across the eastern CWA will quickly shift eastward tonight as the upper trough shifts eastward. Highs tomorrow should be around 10 degrees warmer than they were today. However, the GEM is a stronger outlier with a much deeper trof and sfc wave. As for temps, Tues still appears to be somewhat warm, but have trended twd the cooler guidance with CAA across the CWA and clouds moving into the region.
Weak west flow at the surface and continued dry airmass should result in min temps in the lower 40s to upper 30s across most of the area. Cool again Mon night with min temps a few degrees warmer than tonight/s values.
As advertised, this system carries more dynamical support compared to this morning's light snow/rain/drizzle activity, and latest observations show some visibility reductions amidst the higher reflectivities. Hi-res, near term models show an abrupt west to east loss of deep moisture after 03z, at which there's the potential for precipitation to end as light freezing drizzle or drizzle depending on surface temperatures. Highs are expected to top out in the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, with Monday night lows falling into the low/mid 30s.
Temperature will fall below freezing this evening and without much wind to speak of, area roads are likely to remain wet.
Skies will gradually clear this evening as a high pressure ridge approaches from the west. The NAM is the outlier with the low tracking slower and farther north than the other models.
Temps are svrl degs warmer than yesterday attm. With more sun, warmer 850mb temps, and mixing/downslope have increased temperatures just slightly from the previous forecast for today. Yesterday was a few degrees warmer than forecast, and tried to follow the warmer trend for today. There is a weak cold front that moves through the area, but only turns the winds to the northwest during the afternoon.
850 temps will be some 4 to 8 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon and couple that with extensive cloud cover and low level cold advection, should help to keep temperatures from rising much today with afternoon readings in the low to mid 30s accompanied by a gusty northwest wind. The deep trof over the eastern half of the CONUS will continue to slowly modify. At first, the mid level ridge in the west provides some warmer temps for the first couple days of the week. By late in the period, clouds will be lowering again from the west ahead of the next system, but the lower ceilings should hold off until after 18Z.
311 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 The region remained under meridional flow today with a broad mid- level trough over the eastern U. and a mid-level ridge stretching across the western U. Even though this trough axis was shifting a bit further to the east today, the northwesterly flow aloft continued to allow some very weak embedded waves, and thus scattered cloud cover, to stream across portions of northeast and east central KS. However, breaks in the cloud cover allowed for some decent afternoon heating with temperatures reaching into the low 50s to mid/upper 50s from east to west.
Much warmer today under abundant sunshine and breezy conditions. Nice warmup today with 2 pm temperatures running 7 to 14 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Dry and warmer conditions this week.
231 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 Area is on the backside of a trough that passed through yesterday/last night.
Satellite shows mid level cloudiness associated with the upper trough passage today mainly affecting the northern half of Alabama. Overall moisture remains shallow across Central Alabama and only a slight chance of rain is expected across the far northeast tip of the CWA this afternoon as the airmass in the lower levels remains very dry.
Quiet and cool conditions will persist across the CWA once again today as high pressure at the surface remains wedged into the region, along with prevailing northwest flow aloft. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Continued slightly cooler than normal and dry. Early morning surface analysis had a 1031mb high centered over west Texas ridging east across the northern Gulf coast.
354 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will move across the region tonight with a ridge of high pressure building east across the region on Monday.
An upper trough over the eastern conus will shift east early in the period with northwest flow aloft becoming more westerly by mid week.
Today will be another day with locally breezy conditions, abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures. Dry conditions will continue through the coming week with mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. Another cold morning across southeast Arizona but warmer temperatures are on the way.
1021 AM MST Sun Jan 29 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE High pressure will dominate routes over the landscape.
Models shows NW flow aloft flattening out in response to trough digging south out of Canada. This variance is particularly important early on as both models show a strong cold front and arctic high pressure moving towards the northern plains being pushed south by the trough along the Canadian border. GEFS/GFS has trended a little cooler than 24 hr ago, but nowhere near what ECMWF/GEM are showing.
1245 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region today. Weak high pressure will build in from the west tonight through Monday night.
1059 AM PST Sun Jan 29 2017 Strong high pressure will bring persistent low clouds to central Washington and parts of northeast Washington through at least Monday.
The Interior Northwest remains under an upper level ridge this morning. This ridge will be flattening through today and tonight as a weak disturbance moves through British Columbia. Overall should see a gradually lowering of the top of the cloud/fog deck through tonight as the weak disturbance flattens the upper ridge.
1134 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 Conditions have been cooler and windier than expected this morning. This setup has led not only to widespread light rain from increasing nimbostratus, but frontogenesis from the northern Bahamas to the lower Straits of Florida. Later this afternoon and tonight, the upper-level forcing should wane, with a low-level ridge approaching from the northwest/north. A cold front over the Straits of Florida will advance southward this afternoon and tonight, with strong north to northeast breezes expected across Florida Keys coastal waters through this afternoon.
Montana will remain warm and dry as part of this ridge. This will bring a cold front through the forecast area late tonight and Monday morning. The winds will diminish Monday Night as high pressure builds into the area.
If winds subside slower than expected, we should see temperatures hold above freezing for much of the night. Thus, lows will be milder Monday Night staying above freezing.
Mid to upper flow looks to flatten out and become more zonal for the Mon night thru Wed time frame, which will allow a series of dry cold fronts to drop south into the plains. Ketcham The better surge of cooler air will drop down on late Tue night or early Wed, with max temps expected to drop back to near climo normals for Wed-Fri.
Flurries with occasional snow showers will continue through most of the afternoon as an upper trough and associated cold front moves across the region. Expect clearing tonight as high pressure approaches from the west.
142 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 We are still looking at a prolonged period of northwest to westerly upper level flow thanks to a dampened ridge along the west coast.
High pressure holding over the area and VFR conditions to prevail. somewhat shallow eastern CONUS troughing with its axis extending down from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Western Texas higher pressure will have this west to northwest low level wind keeping the higher moisture shunted well offshore through Monday.
/issued 631 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017/ For the ArkLaTex, SKC and light West winds attm which will be picking up by mid morning through the afternoon with WNW at 10G20KTS almost everywhere as high pressure over the OK/TX panhandles builds into S TX this cycle. Climb winds NW 25-50KTS and up to 80KTS at high flight levels, a good bit less wind to be sure now that the longwave trough is East of the MS river.
Increasing WAA will cause an area of light snow to develop in advance of the the low across the valley and into NW MN. Some concern with the track of the low as the baroclinic zone is farther west than expected currently.
A strong mid level ridge will remain in place across the region through midweek. A strong mid level ridge centered along the CA coast has expanded inland across the Great Basin over the past 24 hours. This building ridge and attendant warming aloft has strengthened valley inversions, while allowing for a warming trend across the higher terrain.
After collaborating with neighboring offices and local discussion, the best course of action was to maintain the High Wind Watch. The high wind watch maintains the idea/potential for very windy conditions.
Snow showers will continue into this evening as an upper trough pulls away from the area. High pressure will assert itself in the wake of this system and as a result the remainder of the short term will be dry. Models keep a strong upper low over eastern Canada just east of the Hudson Bay.
236 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 Prospects for accumulating snowfall diminishing for all but the highest elevations of NE GA.
305 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 North and Central Texas will remain between a ridge of high pressure across the West Coast and a broad trough across the eastern half of the nation.
A slow moving deep broad trough over the southeast CONUS has allowed for isentropic lift over the region today, which thickened the mid level cloud deck and rung out widespread light to moderate precipitation. Interestingly enough, for the calendar day, max temps generally peaked in the low to mid 60s, just after midnight early this morning. Monday, the trough axis will further push east of the region, taking most of the remaining moisture with it. This scenario should promote much less cloud cover, dry air advection, light northerly flow, and warmer weather. Maximum temperatures are forecast from the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, around 10 degrees warmer than today.
245 PM MST Sun Jan 29 2017 A dry northwesterly flow aloft will be over Colorado with a ridge over the western u. On Monday, another mild afternoon expected with highs again in the lower 60s, with just some areas of high level moisture moving over the state.
200 PM MST Sun Jan 29 2017 The pattern across the lower 48 begins to deamplify as the California high weakens and the east coast trough exits.
328 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area this evening. Weak high pressure will build over the region Monday night.
High pressure ridge will build in overnight leading to wind directions becoming northwesterly.
Temps are in the 30s at most locations, and even though 850 mb temps are running around -4c to 08c, freezing levels(agl) are generally above 800 ft. As we get toward late afternoon, freezing levels will be lowering with more areas receiving some of the light snowfall.
This is expected to sag southward with time as a cold front approaches the region. Several factors including lift, available moisture through 650mb, and strengthening cold advection will support a period of enhanced snowfall over the high terrain of WV. In addition, unidirectional nw flow will support further upslope once the trough axis shifts eastward through Monday morning. While snowfall is expected to be the highest here, it is not unreasonable to think that the mountain tops of Preston and Garrett may also see slightly higher amounts. Snow shower activity should really begin to wane by midday Monday as the low level wind direction shifts to the west- southwest and surface ridging takes place. Yet another system will quickly cross the Great Lakes Monday night, spreading light snow across the region along a lifting warm front.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 30s. Temperatures up to around 50 degrees over west central Illinois in the clear area, but mainly holding in the lower 40s over the eastern CWA. High pressure area currently west of the Mississippi River will continue to edge eastward across the Mississippi Valley tonight.
High pressure ridging over the northern Plains and lower MO valley will drop into the lower OH and TN valleys Sunday morning. Lows should bottom out in the lower to middle 30s in these areas with upper 30s along the MS border. Fine weather is forecast for Sunday as the surface and 850 mb ridges shift east into the region with light flow expected.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 61 40 70 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 56 36 66 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 37 57 36 66 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 51 32 62 / 20 0 0 10.
1247 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Crossing low pressure will generate some light rain and snow through early morning.
Overnight temps will again be warmer than the previous evening by about 5 degrees or so. Winds will shift to the northwest and north on Sunday behind a weak cold front.
Areas of drizzle and some flurries will continue through the remainder of the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. If it lingers long enough into the evening as temperatures drop, a brief period of isolated freezing drizzle wouldn't be out of the question , but the likelihood is low. The low stratus has kept temperatures locked in the mid 30s today, setting us up for a colder night ahead with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Forecast soundings show low level moisture being stripped out from top down tonight, with only the lowest 1km still close to saturation.
/EC/ Tonight through Sunday: Despite a weak cold front pushing south through the forecast area today and into tonight, little appreciable difference will be noted in the weather except for more seasonal temperatures across the area tonight under clearing skies. Warm afternoon temperatures will return for Sunday thanks to an upper-level ridge of high pressure edging eastward during the day, and a combination of mostly sunny skies and drier air allowing for good afternoon mixing. /NF/ Sunday night through the coming work week: We are expecting regional weather over this period to generally be dominated by upper level ridging extending north from Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, which will of course correlate to warmer than normal temperatures.
Otherwise high pressure will settle over WI tonight and Sun AM before moving east with sly winds and warm advection. Diminishing winds in the works as well with the more slack gradient with surface ridging. Medium to High 500 millibar ridge in place at the outset with some flattening during the day as some energy shifts east from the northern Plains. Low level traj will keep the eastern/lake areas cooler with a potential boost into the 50s in the western CWA.
1117 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Surface and H8 ridge will move east of CWA during the evening and overnight period, allowing southerly flow to return to the area, impacting temperatures and low level moisture. Records are in the lower 80s, thus though well above normal for mid-March, not record setting. Front will move south of the area overnight Sunday, placing enter CWA on the cold side of the surface frontal system, and thus temperatures will trend cooler.
Outside of the low clouds, no significant aviation concerns are expected through the period. /ISSUED 317 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/ A fairly persistent and dry forecast is expected for the next several days as upper level ridging dominates the area.
1016 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Low pressure moves south and east of the area tonight and Sunday.
/issued 353 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/ Well the low decks are now letting in some decent sunshine with a few more likely "warmer than forecast" readings to occur late this afternoon. The real cooler dew points are spreading right down the lower elevations of the MS river valley and may still plug into the Ouachita valley of El Dorado and Monroe this evening, but the weak front will bounce out overnight with low level winds to return from the SW bring some more clouds and or fog. Little change to write home about just yet as the warmer than average pattern lingers all week.
1139 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Low pressure moves south and east of the area tonight and Sunday.
946 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Warm front will move through the area tonight. Warm front will move across the area tonight with warmer lows expected, especially south and west. A warm front across eastern Montana this afternoon will propagate east across North Dakota tonight and occlude. A mild overnight is favored tonight given the warm airmass and increased mixing with the passage of the aforementioned front with widespread lows above freezing. Despite cold air advection, most of western and central North Dakota outside of the far southwest may actually see warmer temperatures on Sunday compared to Saturday thanks to greater mixing.
This activity is expected to diminish and exit the area Sunday afternoon as a surface warm front lifts north. Warmer temperatures are in store for Sunday with readings approaching 80 degrees west of Highway 65. A deeper upper level trough will approach from the west late in the week allowing the warm sector to spread north.
Things still seem on track for increasing winds and warmer air moving in overnight. The low clouds have finally been lifting, but remain in the central and northern Red River Valley north of Fargo. Following this, wind speeds should decrease somewhat on Sunday, with much warmer temperatures expected. It will stay quite a bit cooler though for areas with deeper snow cover. A cold front will be moving through the area late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Low level ridge axis progged to be over the region tonight, which will create good conditions for fog to develop once again. Despite the boundary sinking into the area, lower dewpoints and cooler air will remain east and northeast of the area so overnight lows tonight are expected to be near or even a little warmer than last night, ranging from around 60 acrs central LA to the lower 60s acrs lower southeast TX.
821 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Crossing low pressure will generate some light rain and snow through Sunday morning.
1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this evening. The cold front which moved through the forecast area earlier today is moving into central Mississippi with high pressure centered over southwest Iowa. The high is forecast to move into central Illinois tonight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River so some patchy frost is possible in these areas. High pressure will remain over the region on Sunday with more dry weather expected. A warm front will be moving into central Arkansas Sunday night.
As for the potential for frost, although temps are expected to dip mainly into the low to mid 30s by the late overnight hours, winds however are expected to remain in the 5 to 10 mph range overnight, and should keep any widespread potential of frost from forming although mostly clear skies are also expected. VFR expected through the next 24 hours with high pressure moving into the region.
/ISSUED 317 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/ A fairly persistent and dry forecast is expected for the next several days as upper level ridging dominates the area.
Northwest flow continues at the surface with a high pressure ridge now pushing into western Iowa. Lows in the mid to upper 20s in the northeast 1/2, while increasing southeast winds in southern sections help keep lows closer to freezing. Initial concern is chance for storms Sunday night ahead of the advancing cold front.
1026 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 High pressure will move east of the region overnight. low pressure will track well south of the region Sunday and Sunday night.
1010 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Upper level low drops southeast tonight to the mid Atlantic coast.
701 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 An upper trough and cold front will push through the area tonight.
As for the potential for frost, although temps are expected to dip mainly into the low to mid 30s by the late overnight hours, winds however are expected to remain in the 5 to 10 mph range overnight, and should keep any widespread potential of frost from forming although mostly clear skies are also expected. Mainly VFR expected through the next 24 hours with high pressure moving into the region.
859 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Still looking for increasing clouds and some fog development overnight (dense fog advisories might be needed) with low temperatures expected to bottom out in the lower to mid 60s inland and in the mid to upper 60s at the coast. There has been a downward trend in the coverage since noon which looks to be due to the upper ridge becoming more dominate as the upper trough continues to move off to the east. Over the weekend a building upper level ridge will help diminish rain chances and bring a continued trend of daytime high temperatures reaching into the lower to mid 80s. An upper level low pressure trough will move into the Southern Plains and Texas late in the work week.
/Issued 813 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/ A slowly retreating warm front was located from SW AR across E Central to NW OK early this evening. Surface observations show warm front positioned just north of the Red River Valley and will gradually move northwards tonight and tomorrow. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight tonight over the higher terrain in NW Arkansas as the warm front moves northward and increasing low-level jet.
Drier air currently settling in behind a passing cold front expected to bring largely VFR conditions to middle TN the next 24 hours.
/issued 1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this evening. The cold front which moved through the forecast area earlier today is moving into central Mississippi with high pressure centered over southwest Iowa. The high is forecast to move into central Illinois tonight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River so some patchy frost is possible in these areas. High pressure will remain over the region on Sunday with more dry weather expected. A warm front will be moving into central Arkansas Sunday night.
Expect overnight temperatures tonight to be the lone period in the forecast to remain above freezing. BMickelson A warm and dry afternoon is expected to continue across northeast Montana thanks to a large upper level ridge over the western U. extending north into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. The main story for Sunday will be cooler temperatures with highs into the 50s along with gusty west winds in the post-frontal environment.
1137 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Made slight upward adjustment to temperatures for the rest of the night with lows from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 60s southwest.
A weak cold front will move through the waters late tonight through Sunday morning, producing a period of poor to hazardous boating conditions. Weak cold front moving southward through central Florida through the morning will reinforce the drier airmass in place across the region.
1200 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: Patchy fog will be possible along and south of the cold front as it tracks across the south half of the ArkLaMiss overnight. /17/ Made slight upward adjustment to temperatures for the rest of the night with lows from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 60s southwest.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will progress southward down the Florida peninsula overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the Bahamas tonight.
753 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 An area of low pressure will move southeast through the Great Lakes today, with some showers moving across the Ohio Valley.