Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect fair and cold weather tonight behind the cold front that brought the strong winds today.
There will likely be a break in precipitation later this morning through early afternoon, before additional convection develops ahead of a cold front moving through the region. Rainfall should end from west to east later tonight with high pressure building in on Tuesday. Highs will reach into the lower to middle 60s both today and Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move across the Mid South by Tuesday night as the upper low drops southeast into the Mid West.
Upper level low over Hudson Bay will eventually merge with the organizing upper level low/circulation over the central Conus. Southeast Michigan is currently caught in between, with upper level ridge and dry air in place today.
The sweeping parent long wave Low/trof passage across the lower Ohio valley Tuesday night will result in some instability pops, mainly across our north and east.
A few showers present over the higher elevations this morning. A drier northwest flow then develops tonight as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. This will begin a period of dry and warmer weather across southwestern Idaho and eastern Oregon. Even with warming on Tuesday, temperatures will still be around 5 degrees cooler than normal.
1048 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 06Z TAF CYCLE Dry Pacific cold front near a KRTN to KLVS to KONM line moving sewd late this evening. Wind speeds will continue to diminish overnight, except in the higher terrain where strong west to northwest winds remain at mt top level. Overall eastward progression of the cold front and upper storm system have been slower than what was previously forecast, allowing temperatures this afternoon to warm more than what even the 12Z guidance was indicating. In fact, the cold front only just reached KFMN.
/issued 700 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018/ Another quiet evening across the region with high pressure and dry air continuing to dominate. Winds will diminish overnight allowing for decent radiational cooling once again with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to lower 50s, except along north and east facing portions of Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor where the water will keep temperatures warmer.
MVFR cigs will trend toward IFR at most sites ahead of a cold front, which is forecast to sweep across the region Monday morning. An associated cold front was positioned across Colorado and New Mexico. the cold front is expected to catch up to the dryline and make its way across West/Central Oklahoma and push into Eastern Oklahoma around 12z Monday morning. Lows in the upper 40s in Osage as the front moves in to the low 50s elsewhere are forecast.
An upper level trough progressing across the Rockies this afternoon will assume a neutral to negative tilt as it emerges east of the Front Range atop the High Plains late tonight and Monday. An attendant lee cyclone will deepen invof the Tri-State border the remainder of this afternoon, then track east invof the KS/NE border, with an associated cold front surging through the Tri-State region this evening.
Cold front will begin to enter the region around 6z and should push through all terminals Tuesday morning.
350 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will bring fair skies and dry weather Monday.
Dry weather is expected for the work week with warmer temperatures Tuesday onward. A ridge of high pressure aloft will provide the area with dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures this week.
905 PM PST Sun Mar 4 2018 Well, certainly not as exciting an evening compared to the last couple! Clear skies plus moisture from daytime snow melt should lead to areas of freezing fog in Sierra valleys and maybe valleys in Western Nevada outside the cities. Only thing against widespread fog formation is light east flow that can mix things just enough, but right now that's confined to just the higher ridges so not expecting wind to be a factor. Looking ahead to this week with new models coming in - several nice days with ridging overhead.
Upper trof over south central MT continues to produce areas of lighter snow across the east half of our cwa, though the stronger forcing from earlier today has ended as the mid level low shifts to the northeast. Other than freezing drizzle and light snow grains, areas from Rosebud to Sheridan Counties eastward have avoided precipitation today, courtesy of dry slot ahead of upper trof. In our far east near Baker and Ekalaka, be patient, as strong winds arrive by tomorrow and the trowal snowfall may persist for awhile, depending on how fast the low departs. Expect dry conditions Tuesday as heights build in response to ridging along the Pacific coast.
Even though we'll remain slightly cooler than normal behind the cold front that will eventually pass southeast across our CWA today, winds will remain elevated behind the front. Otherwise, vortmax continues to round the base of an upper level trough shifting east-northeast across SE Colorado and Kansas into the Central Plains.
With dewpoints near to just above freezing in the west side valleys makes the current forecast of patchy freezing fog more confident. Weak ridging will build in tonight into tomorrow, bringing quiet weather for a few days. Monday will be one of the warmer days we've seen in a while, with temperatures over the west side reaching the mid 50s and 40s east of the Cascades. Tuesday will start similar to Monday, with clear to partly cloudy skies overnight helping temperatures drop to near freezing or below and giving way to patchy morning fog. Tuesday afternoon will be several degrees warmer than Monday, with west side valleys possibly cracking 60 degrees, and the east side approaching 50.
As the low level jet kicks in tonight, this will lift from south to north. The low is progged to slowly slide off to the south and east throughout the day on Tuesday with precipitation gradually tapering off from north to south early in the day. With temperatures right around the freezing point, uncertainty is high on exact precip type through early Monday morning.
304 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather until low pressure returns precipitation chances Tuesday. Mainly sunny and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. High pressure is expected to slide E of the region tonight. Low pressure is progged to advance slowly out of the Midwest late tonight and Tuesday, with an associated occluded front progged to cross the OH Valley region.
1245 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will extend from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas through today. A warm front will approach central NC on Tuesday, ahead of a wave of low pressure that will track east across SC Tuesday night.
230 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Temperatures will steadily warm through the week as high pressure builds across the region. Correspondingly, a large upper low will become quasi-stationary through the east Pacific helping tap copious amounts of high subtropical moisture around the trough base. By the middle of the week, the pattern will unlock to a degree lifting the east Pacific trough into the Pacific Northwest and dampening the SW Conus ridge.
Meanwhile, upper low across the High Plains continues to push ewd, with the associated cold front now encroaching upon the TX and OK panhandles. As the upper low and cold front push ewd today, additional convection is fcst to develop and spread sewd across our region. Cold front will push e of the region by mid evening, bringing any ongoing severe threat effectively to an end, with rain ending prior to sunrise.
An upper level low is progged to move across the rockies and into the northern and central plains through the short term. The associated long wave trough moving across TX will bring a cold front into S Central TX today with a prefrontal/dryline moving into the western CWA this afternoon. The dryline and cold front are progged to meld together through the afternoon and into the evening. As the frontal bdry pushes south this evening, cooler temps will begin filtering into the northern CWA with mid 50s for lows across the northern areas. Tue highs will be warmer across the northern CWA due to clearing skies, while rain and clouds will keep the southern CWA cooler. Winds are expected to begin weakening tonight ahead of a cold front.
An upper level trough will continue to move away from the region tonight. High pressure will follow for most of the upcoming week. Cyclonic northwest flow aloft extends across the forecast area this evening, in the wake of a departing upper level low which is making its way through the northern High Plains. This activity should diminish during the overnight hours as this feature moves away from the forecast area and the low levels begin to dry. High pressure will gradually amplify across the region during the first half of the upcoming week resulting in a drying and warming trend.
MVFR to IFR stratus continues to linger over many of the terminals, but will quickly shift east as a cold front blows through from 09-12Z. Winds will shift from the NW with the cold front early Mon morning, with gusts around 30 kt likely for at least a couple of hours.
At the surface, low is centered over north central KS near the Nebraska border with cold front extending from this low into sw KS. Upper low is expected to shift east for Tue and current indications are that pressure gradient will actually tighten for Tue setting the stage for even stronger winds with great mixing once again expected. The higher speeds are expected to be across central KS. Afternoon RH values will be in the 15%-20% range with the lower values west of I-135. RH values will also be slightly higher as they range from 20% to 30% with the lower values again west of I-135.
A cold front will shift winds to the north- northwest around mid morning on Monday. The front will knock temperatures down close to average, or about 15 to 20 degree cooler than today.
340 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will slowly shift east today.
347 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 Recent water vapor imagery showing strong upper trough emerging into the Plains with lots of dry aloft air over Kansas. Cold front was moving into central Kansas at 08Z with some sustained winds and gusts to Advisory levels behind it and very weak convection along it. Initial strong winds behind the front could reach Advisory levels as seen in upstream obs, but concern for strong winds persists into the late afternoon as the upper trough deepens over eastern Nebraska and subsidence occurs as winds become unidirectional. As the upper low continues to drop southeastward into the Ohio valley with a westward extension of the trof moving over the state on Tuesday, the tight surface gradient and depth of wind in the column continue to make winds and fire danger the primary concerns.
The mid to upper level ridge axis will be shifting to the east of the Appalachians today, with increasing midlevel clouds behind it. A warm front across West TN and AL this morning will track east through the day, with associated showers from isentropic lift arriving in the Plateau this afternoon.
1229 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure through Monday. Warm front Monday night. Cold front Tuesday.
A warm front will continue to slowly creep toward the region overnight, bringing scattered light showers into the Tennessee Valley by early Monday morning. The increased cloud cover and moisture will help temperatures around 10-20 degrees warmer than last night, with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 40s in most areas.
Another gorgeous early Spring day underway across the lower Ohio Valley. GOES-16 reveals hardly any clouds in the sky, and a strong +1044mb high pressure over northern Canada continues to hold influence over the eastern 1/3 of the country. Clouds will begin increasing tonight as a cold front begins to approach from the west, though we'll remain through the overnight hours. Tuesday will be warm and dry through most of the day, though clouds will begin increasing Tuesday afternoon as a weakening upper level low swings into the region.
The dryline had made it about as far as west as a Gail to Midland/Odessa to Fort Stockton line but by 3am CST, it had already started to push back east as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. The cold front will move through Southeast New Mexico before sunrise then through the remainder of West Texas by mid to late morning. High temperatures will be closer to normal for early March which will be about 15-20 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday! This front will shove low level moisture to the east today and the dry/cooler air looks to stick around through mid week thanks to a secondary cold front Tuesday.
Dry weather is expected this week with warmer temperatures Tuesday onward. Scattered this high clouds were passing over the area this morning under westerly flow aloft. Highs mostly 2-5 degrees warmer although the western areas will see a bigger change, up 6-8 degrees.
This Disturbance will track Southeast across the area today, bringing occasional Snow Showers, mainly to the high terrain areas along the Montana and Wyoming borders eastward to the Benches east of Pocatello and Idaho Falls, with perhaps a brief Snow Shower working into Pocatello during the Afternoon. The highest amounts are forecast over the Bear River range west of the Bear Lake Valley where a few Inches of Snow are possible.
This gradually filling upper low will be a feature across the Midwest through the middle of the week, gradually being absorbed by another low dropping southward from Hudson Bay. South of the low track, winds will be rather gusty as well, around 30 mph or so in areas south of I-72.
250 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Overnight water vapor imagery showed a potent upper trough axis along the Rocky Mountain Front Range, with surface cold front and associated precipitation across central SD/NE. Good agreement with the short range models/ensembles with the upper low over eastern MT/northeast WY moving southeast into SD/NE today and quickly intensifying. The low tracks slowly east into MN/IA tonight and Tuesday. It will be quite windy Tuesday east of the Laramie Range as strong winds aloft mix down on the backside of the intense Midwest upper low. Northwest flow aloft will weaken as the Midwest upper low lifts northeast across the Great Lakes.
A pre-frontal trough will move into South Texas during the afternoon with south- southwest flow over the coastal plains while winds shift to the northwest over the western Brush Country. The cold front will push into the northern counties of South Texas during the evening hours with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms possible.
A cold front will move through the area Monday morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts. A cold front will move through the area Monday morning, resulting in gusty north winds of 12 to 16 knots. /issued 254 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Although another cold front will bring north winds to West Central Texas tomorrow, temperatures will remain above seasonal normals. Tomorrow, another cold front will bring gusty winds from the north, along with much drier air; nevertheless, this front will have either limited or no impact on highs tomorrow. Yes, some of our locations north of Interstate 20 could have slightly cooler highs than today, perhaps in the 65 to 70 range.
Currently, somewhat of a lull with a dry slot across southwest and south central ND, and light freezing drizzle northwest. Both the NAM/GFS show strong synoptic scale ascent atop low level frontogenesis, both overlapping the surface boundary/inverted trough today.
Dry and much cooler weather is expected elsewhere today with plenty of sun anticipated. High pressure then nudges in from the west on Tuesday with moisture continuing to erode across the northern mountains, leaving a whole lot of dry across eastern Utah and western Colorado as we head into the middle of the week. 05/00Z hand analysis is showing a cut-off low hanging of the Left Coast.
1019 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Have updated to allow the High Wind Warning to expire. Therefore, have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire. Will continue the High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories for portions of the forecast area through mid evening.
235 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure will extend from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas through today. A warm front will approach southeastern NC Tuesday, ahead of a wave of low pressure that will track east across SC Tuesday night.
Showers will redevelop in the morning, followed by thunderstorms in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through from NW to SE, reaching KCLL around 22Z or so before working its way down to LBX by around 06Z.
Similarly, snow has ended over the lower elevations of northwest Colorado zone 1 with some very light showers lingering at KEEO and KHDN. Lift and diminishing fast as the trough moves east of the Continental Divide so expect drying trend will continue for these areas and have cancelled CO zones 1 and 2 early.
The highest impact time will be from noon to midnight. Snow exits the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as low pressure tracks toward the Ohio River Valley.
Have some chance PoPs in the forecast fore the remainder of the morning but that may be a little generous in the end as most guidance has more organized, albeit still scattered in nature, convection attendant to the cold frontal passage this afternoon. By early this evening, the cold front will be nearing or crossing the Mississippi river and drier air will begin to filter into the region. The trough driving the cold front today is currently over the CO/NE/KS border region, but will eventually form a cutoff low over the NE/IA border by late tonight before diving southward through Missouri on Tuesday.
Soundings over Marshall county in the higher elevations suggest maybe 2 hours of freezing rain before the switch over to snow.
This AM, a low pressure system was noted across NE and KS with a front extending back to the SW from it into the TX Panhandle and NM. Also, a warm front was pushing NE across LA/MS and extending to the AL coast.
This well ahead of a cold front, which will sweep across the area today. The airmass behind the front is more of Pacific origin, thus temperatures will actually be warmer behind the front, especially over southeast Kansas and western Missouri where more sun will be seen. With clear skies expected will see temperatures drop into the lower and middle 30s for overnight lows.
316 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 Cold front currently located over central Kansas will sweep through the region today with gusty northwest winds developing behind front. Mostly sunny skies combined with warmer downslope northwest flow should allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s in the red flag areas with RH values falling into the 15-20 percent range. Speed max rotating around backside of upper low over the Great Lakes will allow northwest winds to increase into the 40-45 mph range Tuesday afternoon.
833 PM PST Sun Mar 4 2018 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring a warming trend with lower humidity and gusty northeast winds near the coastal foothills. a trough of low pressure off the West Coast will bring a return of moist onshore flow, along with cooler weather and a chance for rain and mountain snow. Surface pressure gradients were still weak onshore KSAN to the lower deserts, but had trended sharply offshore at 6 MBS from SW NV.
Another concern is that some light freezing drizzle could develop after 09Z tonight southwest of GRR as a dry slot pushes in, so advisories may still need to be considered to cover a potentially slick Tuesday morning commute when sfc temps are expected to be below freezing. Model soundings have rather steep lapse rates due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low.
The latest Hi-Res ARW and NMM really keep the best chances at seeing scattered showers across the northwest during the day on Monday and feel that this is a good strategy based on the timing of the trough and the strength of the high pressure system.
After this band moves thru the LoW region the second or third bands will likely not make it into LoW region so coord with DLH and dropped LoW county from advisory. This band will continue to move NNW and as anticipated a larger area of precipitation incl thunderstorms in eastern half of SD on the north and east side of low pressure in eastern Nebraska/SE South Dakota will spread north and then northwest thru SE ND into central ND into the morning and aftn. Northwest flow aloft develops over the Northern Plains as the upper level low impacting the region during the short term moves to the east. Another upper low interacts with the lead low ejecting out of the Northern Plains.
257 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Current surface map places deepening low pressure over eastern Nebraska, with inverted trof through eastern South Dakota into central North Dakota. Water vapor shows mid/upper low over eastern Montana with next upper low beginning to cut off over southeast South Dakota. As upper low cuts off over southeast South Dakota today, lift increases across central south Dakota into north Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the area for the end of the work week, with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Next upper trof arrives for the weekend, bringing a chance of snow to the area.
Meanwhile, areas of -RA will remain possible through the overnight hours mainly over SW AR, along and N of a warm front that will continue to slowly lift N through this area through mid-morning Monday. Cigs should slowly lift by mid to late morning Monday, although widely sct -SHRA may develop after 15Z along and just ahead of a cold front as it shifts SE across extreme NE TX/SW AR. Afterwards, Cu/AC cigs will quickly diminish as drier air deepens in wake of the fropa, although cirrus cigs will linger through Tuesday beneath the deepening upper trough across the Cntrl and Srn Plains. Also, stg temp and dewpoint gradient along nwd advancing warm front required making some overnight low adjustments, mainly to raise lows for east TX and nw LA.
Lighter winds will allow for greater ice accumulation both before onset of snow and in the dry slot on Monday afternoon when precip transitions to freezing drizzle for a few hours.
Mid to high level cloud bases were streaming southeastward from the Lower MS River Valley to the central Gulf coast to start the period. Mid to high level cloud bases were streaming southeastward from the Lower MS River Valley to the central Gulf coast to start the period. A weak mid level impulse embedded in an upper ridge to the west continues to track west over the mid to lower Mississippi River valley this afternoon. Surface winds will continue to veer to the southeast through Mon afternoon as the ridge of high pressure to the north shifts east.
A weak upper ridge off the coast will slowly spread into Western Washington on Monday, with a decreasing trend on showers.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the state through mid to late morning before a cold front sweeps through between 18z-00z, ending precipitation. Tonight Through Tuesday An upper ridge over the Midwest and mid south today will move east tonight and Monday. This ridge will move to the east coast Monday night, and an upper low will dive into the northwest U. The cold front will move through the state on Monday and bring the precipitation to an end. High temperatures will be warmer on Monday in the lower 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, then slightly cooler on Tuesday.
The low pressure is expected to pivot northward into eastern SD overnight, with rain developing first through south central SD and the James River Valley by late evening, then expanding eastward across the area overnight. With that, temperatures will begin to fall over that area as colder air begins to wrap in behind the low, and rain will change to snow toward 12Z. The surface and main upper level low move only slowly eastward on Monday night, with snow and breezy to windy conditions continuing across the area with most places picking up another 3 to 4 inches.