Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure currently centered across the ARKLAMISS will move eastward through the period. Late week trough/short wave stronger but low-level easterly flow keeps instability limited.
Cold front in central Minnesota is quite weak, and short term models do bring it to far southern Minnesota during mid afternoon. The storm track is such that the upper Midwest will have high pressure and light winds, while the southeastern US has storms and precipitation. An upper level low will intensify over the west coast over the middle of the week. This will lead to ridging downstream over the center of the country.
This low level forcing shifts east as the morning wears on. High pressure then builds in from the northwest Tuesday. Both models moving toward a more amplified upper level ridge compared to a few days ago. bringing this stronger ridge axis over the region toward the end of the weekend. VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours as a cold front slips south through the area. Winds mainly under 10 knots will slowly veer from a more southerly direction overnight to the north and northeast into this evening as high pressure builds south into the region.
147 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will settle across the Carolinas through Monday before shifting offshore. A cold front will drop slowly south of the Carolinas mid week and then return as a warm front late in the week.
The approaching upper trough will place Colorado under rising motions through this evening. Significant accumulations will be possible on the peaks, ridges and higher elevation roadways, so a Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect through Tuesday. Temperatures are going to be much cooler than normal due to the lack of sunshine and occurring precipitation. Models have an upper closed low over Nevada into western Colorado at 12z Tuesday.
312 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 Low pressure over the Great Basin will maintain cooler conditions and a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected in the region today as low pressure over the Great Basin slowly moves eastward. Storms are also expected to form along the Sierra crest in Mono County but will most likely stay in the high Sierra, eventually moving to the west slope.
The southern steam features a broad weakening upper low centered over srn Idaho with the srn stream arcing southward across California then into Arizona and New Mexico. The precipitation area will begin to move back to the south this afternoon as the upper low to the west weakens and synoptic scale subsidence begins to affect the region as the upper ridge builds in from the north.
403 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 An upper low north of Pennsylvania will lift northward away from PA today.
647 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure slides through this morning. Moisture increases later today north of a warm front.
Precip chances increase today as an upper level trough of low pressure sinks slowly southward across the Great Basin setting up an increasingly divergent flow aloft across the Western High Plains. As this occurs, a frontal boundary is projected to develop attendant to the low, extending eastward generally across southwest and south central Kansas, providing ample lift across the region. Look for lows back down into the 40s(F) tonight as colder air filters southward into western Kansas behind a departing cold front. Cold air from the northern Plains will surge across western Kansas behind the cyclone that will move across Oklahoma into Arkansas by Tuesday morning. A sharp mid level baroclinic zone will persist across southern Kansas Tuesday morning, and moisture flowing around the surface cyclone may support persistence of light rain into the morning hours Tuesday.
321 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will settle across the Carolinas today before shifting offshore. A cold front will drop slowly south of the Carolinas mid week and then return as a warm front late in the week. Today will start off dry and unseasonably cool as high pressure now centered over western Kentucky builds overhead. Cloud cover will thicken, with rain chances increasing through the overnight hours as isentropic lift increases in advance of a warm front lifting north across the Carolinas.
Moisture will be slowly moderating over the next couple of days with high pressure in place. A dry boundary will continue to move through the area with high pressure building across the region through the rest of the week.
Also, an upper level low over nw Ontario will move to Northern Lake Superior by Monday morning and pass east of the forecast area Monday. The overnight cloud cover will prop up the lows, ranging from the middle 30s across the north to the low 40s across the south. Highs should range from the low to middle 50s across the far east to the upper 50s and low 60s across the west and south. Cold air will settle into the Northland on Monday Night, following the passage of a cold front on Monday. Strong upper level ridging will then take hold across the entire region for much of the work week and into the weekend.
High temperatures today are forecast to be in the mid/upper 80s to near 90 inland and the low 80s for the coast. Low level moisture is forecast to surge northward as high pressure shifts eastward and southerly low level flow develops. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast, and overnight lows will be warm in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
242 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 The main focus for the short term is the cold front currently dropping south across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Behind the cold front, the area will see Canadian high pressure moving over the area and remaining through Tuesday. Skies will quickly clear this evening and with light winds and pwat values falling to around a quarter of an inch, have trended the lows tonight towards the MET/MAV guidance.
Precip chances increase today as an upper level trough of low pressure sinks slowly southward across the Great Basin setting up an increasingly divergent flow aloft across the Western High Plains. As this occurs, a frontal boundary is projected to develop attendant to the low, extending eastward generally across southwest and south central Kansas, providing ample lift across the region. Look for lows back down into the 40s(F) tonight as colder air filters southward into western Kansas behind a departing cold front.
High pressure this evening is centered across southern IL and IN. High pressure will cross the region, but will be centered over the LMK CWA around midnight. By dawn the center of the high will be well off to our east, over West Virginia. RH and isentropic lift will steadily increase by Monday afternoon and especially Monday night as an upper trof approaches from the Midwest.
A weak upper level ridge will provide drying tonight and Tuesday.
115 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 An upper low north of Pennsylvania will funnel very cold air into the state tonight with a late season freeze likely in some western and northern higher elevations.
into early this week, carving out a trough across the Southwest and a ridge over the northern High Plains. This ridge will help to keep warm and dry conditions in place.
245 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 Scattered showers will linger over the southern Idaho Panhandle Monday before high pressure brings a dry and warm day to the entire region Tuesday.
Additional periods of convection will become more likely on Monday afternoon as disturbances continue to move in from the west with aid from an upper level trough out over the Rockies.
Water vapor imagery shows broad upper low over the intermountain west with an upper ridge centered just to our north over southern Alberta.
The thermodynamics for storms looks good this afternoon, due to surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, steep mid level lapse rates and MLCAPES of 2000 to 2500 J/KG.
126 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 South Florida transitioning to an easterly low level wind flow as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic Ocean.
A weak pressure pattern currently over south Florida and the Florida Keys will feel the affects of broad high pressure expanding over the southeast coast and into the western north Atlantic today.
Upper low energy in the southwest United States will send more disturbances towards Arkansas over the next 24 to 36 hours, which will keep rain chances in the forecast through the end of the short term period.
331 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Cool and dry Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region this morning, before sliding offshore by late afternoon.
The weather for most of the week will be driven by high pressure that is building to the north. NAM model sounding is showing a freezing level of around 14. However, last nights sounding showed the freezing level up to almost 16k ft. Tomorrow, the high shifts more to the east, causing the flow to be more southeasterly.
Of course, this has also allowed wind chill values to be warmer as well, so that now it's pretty hard to find any values colder than 25 below zero. Another cold front will drop south across the area tonight, with very cold air continuing to pour south through the region.
As the upper trof continues to move south and east this morning, snow will be ending from northwest to southeast acrs srn CO. An upper level ridge wl slowly be building into the area resulting in dry conditions tonight, with most areas seeing mostly clear skies tonight. Overnight low temps should be in the single digits above and below zero, although some of the high valley locations will be even colder.
Expect the low stratus that has formed over southeast Oregon and lower Treasure Valley of southwest Idaho to erode this afternoon as dry air aloft works toward the surface. While the southwest flow will bring warmer temperatures aloft, this first round of precipitation will be all snow to the lowest valley floors.
hourly temperatures were a little warmer across the south were bit cooler across the north where clouds cleared briefly allowing up to a 6 degree drop further than anticipated. Two waves on NW flow aloft, one currently moving through Northeast Montana and another one this afternoon and evening will combine with some overrunning moisture with a weak cold front to bring light snow to parts of the forecast area. The ridge remains over the area Saturday Night.
High pressure will allow for sunshine today, despite this though temperatures will only climb into the teens with snow remaining on the ground. Temperatures tonight will then fall into the lower single digits above zero.
Saturday night, wind speed will be higher, especially in the terrain as a cold air is reinforced with the digging trough.
At 12Z Saturday, the Central Plains are sitting under northwesterly flow aloft, between troughing extending south from a low passing through Ontario and ridging through the Rockies.
However, a quick half inch to inch of snow is expected over this area, which combined with the subfreezing temperatures will create some hazardous travel conditions on secondary roads as well as untreated primary roads. Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 20 32 15 / 40 90 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 19 29 9 / 50 80 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 18 30 11 / 60 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 18 27 6 / 60 80 40 0 NC.
A fast moving trough will bring precipitation mainly to locations northeast of Tucson this morning.
A fast moving trough will bring a slight chance of precipitation mainly to locations northeast of Tucson this morning.
Lower clouds will continue moving southeast and out of the area this morning as cold high pressure moves from the Great Plains into the Midwest. Ridge axis will be moving south of the Missouri River after 06Z tonight.
This is courtesy of the tail-end of a longwave trough, translating east across the Four-Corners Region, with a bit of ul support having been pushed upstream from the disturbance. Temps mainly above freezing south of I-20 at 10Z this morning suggests precip amounts in the form of liquid, but can not rule out a few snow flakes or sleet being possible throughout the morning. Temps will therefore crater into the lower to middle teens across southeast OK, portions of northeast TX and southwest AR, to lower 20s elsewhere.
Rain and high elevation snow will affect northern Arizona into early Friday ahead of and along a strong cold front.
Initial band will likely begin to tapper off in aforementioned area by mid morning, however an additional area of light snow could redevelop across SE OK by early afternoon in association with main upper vort max/trough. A second region of heavier snow, associated with the main trough axis, should develop by late morning and into early afternoon, affecting parts of far southeast Oklahoma.
Temperatures will remain below freezing today with highs in the low to mid 20s.
Current surface analysis places broad high pressure over the central plains into the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places very broad trough from the upper midwest into the southern plains.
The longwave trough remains in place across the CONUS with northwest flow and no obstruction to prevent the arctic air from spilling into the Upper Midwest as the jet stream remains well to our south. Newest guidance came in cooler across the board for highs today, which I can't disagree with. Cloud cover associated with this trough is advancing southeast through the eastern Dakotas early this morning, but the eastward progress is slow.
With temperatures forecast to remain above freezing this afternoon, I am not adding any ice accumulation. Tonight's low temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s in most places, so have issued a hard freeze warning for much of the region.
Cold high pressure will build in for the remainder of the weekend with a return to dry but continued cold temperatures. The low CIGS will spread into KTUP by 9Z.
12z Mon with a closed low off the Pacific NW and very cold air across central Canada. Approach and passage of a sfc trof this evening should lead to prevailing LIFR late aftn into mid evening. SE winds increase to 25 kts on Tue ahead of a low pressure system lifting toward the Great Lakes region. Heavy freezing spray will increase today and continue into Sat night.
Mosaic radar imagery (KBYX currently inoperable) indicates a line of slowly moving showers and thunderstorms across the Straits of Florida, collocated with the developing warm frontal boundary. The temperature gradient along this boundary will slowly increase today and tonight as artic high pressure merges across the Plains. At the same time, the broad warm frontal zone to our south will work northward. By Saturday, the cold front will be gaining momentum across the Gulf of Mexico. Flow ahead of this polar express will become confluent through the lower troposphere, while cyclonic flow sharpens along the frontal axis. In fact, it appears the ingredients are already present across the Straits along the warm front.
Wind chill values will range from the single and teen digits along the Hill Country to the lower 20s along the I-35 corridor this morning. Today's high temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 30s across the eastern two-thirds of South Central Texas and lower 40s along the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures will be above the freezing mark over that area and therefore, wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
543 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Cold Arctic high pressure ridge, currently in the plains, will slowly drift into the CWA today and into tonight.
Water vapor loop indicated a trough/jet streak over southern SASK/southern MAN. Trough will move across the area this afternoon/evening. Flattened upper ridge moves over the area Fri night.
A strong upper level low is moving across Central Canada with a trough digging southward along the Intermountain West. The trough currently over the Intermountain West will trek southeastward reaching the Florida Keys Saturday afternoon or evening.
Traditional guidance has this feature as well, keying off the approach of the 500 mb short wave trough off the western high plains.
456 AM MST Fri Jan 6 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE Drier air will arrive behind an upper level trough and Pacific cold front crossing from the northwest today.
This precip wl be assocd with the main upr trof that wl sweep thru the region tngt. The larger amounts wl again be possible in the higher elevations of the Ozarks and Ouachitas. Highs today wl rmn blw freezing over most if not all of AR.
12z Mon with a closed low off the Pacific NW and very cold air across central Canada. SE winds increase to 25 kts on Tue ahead of a low pressure system lifting toward the Great Lakes region. Heavy freezing spray will increase today and continue into Sat night.
Rain with isolated thunderstorms will develop tonight as low pressure from the Gulf moves across the area.
A ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched across the Southern Plains tonight allowing lows to plummet under clear conditions and light winds.
This ushers the colder high pressure to the east and brings a light southwest flow by early Saturday morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 20 32 15 / 40 90 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 19 29 9 / 40 80 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 18 30 11 / 40 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 18 27 6 / 30 80 40 0 NC.
Cold front currently extends southwestward from the Choctawhatchee Bay in the Western Florida Panhandle (At 4 AM. The cold front will continue to push southward across the Gulf and breezy to windy northerly winds will follow in its wake as modified Arctic air pushes into the region. North of the line light accumulations are anticipated sleet and snow less than 1/2 an inch and ice accrual from freezing rain less than one tenth of an inch. Overnight lows will drop into the low 20s to upper 20s low 30s closer to the coast.
412 AM MST Fri Jan 6 2017 An upper level trough was moving se across the area early this morning which was producing some light snow over the higher terrain along and south of I-70.
The roller coaster winter will continue with snow turning to rain, then back again with perhaps some freezing rain mixed in this weekend.
509 AM PST Fri Jan 6 2017 Below freezing temperatures in the valley this morning.
The mean jet stream position east of the Rockies continues to sag south into the gulf coast states through Saturday as the main upper trough sweeps across the southern plains into the Mississippi Valley region and the Appalachians. a ridge amplifies over the Intermountain and Rocky Mountain region.
As a low pressure system approaches, snow intensity will pick up tonight, reducing visibility to MVFR as well with some periods of IFR vis possible.
322 AM MST Fri Jan 6 2017 A western US weather pattern change is underway going into the weekend as the Northern Pacific quasi-blocking pattern breaks down somewhat and a subtropical jet/atmospheric moisture train strengthens.
Moisture plume streaming from trough axis over northern Arizona will continue to spew east through the morning as heaviest snow bands move south and southeast out of Colorado into eastern New Mexico and West Texas while struggling to overcome dry surface boundary layer across the northern South Plains. Most of the snow should be ending by early afternoon as the trough axis shifts east and subsident flow quickly sets in across our area and rapidly scours out surface moisture. High temps will struggle to get into the low 20s as clouds linger through the afternoon. By this evening though we'll see clearing all across West Texas as high pressure expands across the region. Saturday morning will see ridging staring to move into the area behind the system that is bringing this morning's snow to the Panhandle.
Cold high pressure will build in for the remainder of the weekend with a return to dry but continued cold temperatures.
511 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Quiet and cold is the name of the game, at least in the short term as high pressure continues to settle south across our region this AM. Temps here at the office had been hovering in the lower single digits, however the mercury just dropped below zero thanks to calm winds and breaks in the overlying stratus deck. High pressure to settle directly over the area tonight, which should lead to another cold night with most areas again falling into the single digits despite a return of weak southerly winds during the period.
532 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 MVFR ceilings are prevailing this morning and should continue to do so behind the cold front through the late morning and perhaps the early afternoon hours. Even with temperatures below freezing, the dry airmass and breezy winds should allow for much of this to evaporate before causing any impacts. Wind chill values will range from the single and teen digits along the Hill Country to the lower 20s along the I-35 corridor this morning. Today's high temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 30s across the eastern two-thirds of South Central Texas and lower 40s along the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures will be above the freezing mark over that area and therefore, wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
We remain under the trough so high temps today will only be between 8 and 15 above zero. JEE 320 AM CST A large high pressure system moves over the region Saturday evening through the rest of the weekend.
Subfreezing temperatures expected tonight and a wintry mix of light freezing rain and sleet expected over inland areas but rain is expected to remain the precipitation mode at TAF sites. Cold front currently extends southwestward from the Choctawhatchee Bay in the Western Florida Panhandle (At 4 AM. The cold front will continue to push southward across the Gulf and breezy to windy northerly winds will follow in its wake as modified Arctic air pushes into the region. North of the line light accumulations are anticipated sleet and snow less than 1/2 an inch and ice accrual from freezing rain less than one tenth of an inch. Overnight lows will drop into the low 20s to upper 20s low 30s closer to the coast.
However, the subfreezing temperatures will create slick roads. Use extreme caution if you must travel! Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 20 32 15 / 60 90 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 19 29 9 / 60 80 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 18 30 11 / 60 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 18 27 6 / 60 80 40 0 NC.
Tonight's low temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s in most places, so have issued a hard freeze warning for much of the region.
410 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Current surface analysis places broad high pressure over the central plains into the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places very broad trough from the upper midwest into the southern plains.
1023 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 The low clouds and areas of dense fog continue to slowly erode this morning and have already allowed the dense fog advisory from Manatee/Hardee counties south expire at 10 AM. After a cool start temperatures will rise to above normal during the afternoon with highs reaching into the lower to mid 70s north, and mid to upper 70s central and south.
419 AM MST Fri Jan 6 2017 Very cold morning across most of the area behind the strong cold front that swept through over the past 24 hours and helped scour out the deeper moisture. Heights bounce up this afternoon and Saturday with flat ridging sliding overhead. Expect a cold day today, especially in the snow covered valleys, where inversions are likely to strengthen with the ridge building in.
Very cold morning across most of the area behind the strong cold front that swept through over the past 24 hours and helped scour out the deeper moisture. Heights bounce up this afternoon and Saturday with flat ridging sliding overhead. Expect a cold day today, especially in the snow covered valleys, where inversions are likely to strengthen with the ridge building in.
Upper level ridging will bring moderating 850 mb temperatures from -8C to -12C and highs from the upper teens to lower 20s.