Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
521 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with northwest flow through the Northern Plains. At the surface, high is centered over the Upper Midwest with lee trof extending from central MT through eastern WY. Warm advection will continue today with increasing southerly winds as lee trof nudges eastward. A clipper embedded in the northwest flow will drive a weak cold front through on Monday with gusty northwest winds.
Mid/Upper trough expected to pull away, as some weak ridging aloft occurs across the region. This, along with an abundance of sunshine, will support warmer temps in the 70s and 80s over the plains and 70s across the mountain valleys. An upper level trough is expected to move across the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, sending a dry cool front through the eastern Colorado plains during the day. Currently, afternoon highs are forecast to reach the 80s to near 90 across the plains, and 70s to around 80 in the high valleys.
Much warmer morning today versus yesterday with current temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s thanks to widespread cloud cover. Radar also shows widely scattered showers across west Tennessee ahead of an approaching cold front across the Midwest, and this activity will gradually spread through Middle Tennessee during the day before exiting the area by early evening. Cold front will move through late today into tonight, with lows down into the 40s by Monday morning and highs only making it into the 60s to around 70 by Monday afternoon. A warming trend with continued dry weather is anticipated the rest of the work week as a weak upper ridge develops along the Gulf Coast.
As a cold front moves through this evening, some isolated light rain showers and MVFR cigs will be possible late in the period at TYS and TRI.
648 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Rain chances will return late today and tonight with the approach and passage of a cold front. Still a wide range of solutions from the latest model data on the timing and impact of a cold front and trough axis that will slowly cross Ohio today. Thus, will keep rain chances focused on late this afternoon across Ohio and then shift the higher PoPs eastward into the evening hours. If the clouds do break up for a time this afternoon, a brief surge of warmer temperatures is possible. Conditions will improve Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
527 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Pleasant day on tap for the western slope as high pressure to our west maintains a light westerly flow, dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and mild above seasonal high temperatures. Breezy conditions will occur at times Monday afternoon along with the low relative humidities, resulting in localized critical fire weather conditions in some valleys of northwest Colorado.
Low-impact upper level trough swings through the region today and tonight.
Support for precipitation will increase thanks to DPVA ahead of the approaching trough/surface cold front, with a shot of needed rain across the region tonight. Low pressure to the west will lift northeast over the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. exiting east of the ridges overnight. Dry conditions return Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
This flow pattern has developed in response to a southward shift in the upper ridge that has been on top of us for over a week. Otherwise, slightly cooler air coming in behind the front will lead to highs a few degrees cooler than the last few days, still above normal.
SREF surface vsbys were progged to be the lowest along and just west of highway 77.
120 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure aloft will remain in control through Monday, with hot and dry conditions inland, and a moderating afternoon sea breeze over coastal areas.
1135 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 18Z TAF CYCLE Southerly breezes will increase over eastern NM aft 19Z as a lee trough deepens along the Front Range.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 73 50 79 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 71 49 75 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 70 48 75 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 68 46 73 51 / 20 0 0 0 0.
Upper level trough will move through today with a deeper marine layer over the area. Another upper level ridge will build over Western Washington Monday.
Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western continental United States with trough over the Great Lakes into the Mississippi River Valley. For today, flow shifts more westerly as ridge tries to push into our area. This will bring warmer temperatures and quiet weather. For tonight, a cold front and affiliated upper level short wave push into the area late tonight. Cold front continues to push through the area in the morning, with upper level wave also continuing its progression. Winds will remain around 10 kts overnight while gradually turning to the west ahead of a cold front moving in from the west.
248 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 The early afternoon regional surface analysis placed a north-south trough from eastern MT to the OK/TX Panhandle. A dry cold front is progged to move through central and eastern WY Monday morning, and across southeast WY and the NE Panhandle by late Monday afternoon.
Behind the front drier air will filter in along with a slightly cooler mass of air. The ridge to the west will expand to the southeast and the trough over the Great Lakes will affect the northeast third of the country.
A weak cold front will move through the region this afternoon and early evening, bringing a northerly wind shift to the I-35 corridor. A weak cold front is moving through the SJT area early this morning, and the fropa is expected to enter LLano and Burnet county while slowing down after 12Z. While dew points should dry out by the evening, there isn't much to suggest any temperature changes needed in the first period maxes, tonight's lows should be 2- 5 degrees cooler than from this morning with the higher deltas over Central TX. Highs on Monday will still be in the 80s across most of the region and perhaps 1-3 degrees cooler than today's maxes.
The deep trough that was over the eastern half of the US for the past several days will continue to get shoved to the east thanks to a mid level ridge migrating eastward into the central plains.
Tonight will be warmer due to the steady south winds. A cold front will move through the FA on Monday, with gusty northwest winds behind it.
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A cold front moved through most of the Midsouth today. North wind behind the front along with clearing skies and a drier airmass will result in much cooler temperatures tonight.
Farther West under cloudier skies, and behind a cold front the warmup hasn't been quite as dramatic. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s though a brisk North wind will make it feel a bit cooler.
315 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Cold front continues its eastward progress, now bisecting central Kentucky. Some of the traditional cooler spots in southern Indiana could dip into the mid/upper 30s so we will mention patchy light frost, but wouldn't expect enough coverage for a headline. Starting on Monday night, mostly zonal flow sits over the eastern half of the United States, including the Lower Ohio River Valley.
Otherwise a dry cold front will pass through the area later this afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. This will help to enhance the low level southwest flow with good H850 WAA into the region. A cold front may extend southeast into the far northwest Panhandles shifting winds to northwesterly behind the front, but should have no big impact on temperatures.
The cool airmass will remain in place today behind the departing upper trough with somewhat brisk conditions expected today with occasionally gusty winds and high temperatures in the low to mid 50s areawide. Winds are expected to become increasingly gusty over Lake Michigan this morning out of the north behind the passing cold front which will result in building waves into the northwest Indiana shore. A few sub- freezing temperatures (30-31 degrees) are not entirely out of the question, especially in frost prone areas.
251 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Showers will taper off from the west through this evening as a cold front moves through the region. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through mid week. The cold front is pushing east across our area this afternoon, currently located along the I-71 corridor. The NAM is much more moist in the low levels than the GFS later tonight but this may have something to do with possible fog development if we do clear out. Will range lows tonight from the mid to upper 30s in the far west to the low 40s across the east. Will allow for partly cloudy skies in the morning and then a decreasing cloud trend through the afternoon as the low level flow begins to back around to the southwest.
311 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning with a ridge over the western U. the 500 mb trough axis is across the upper Great Lakes this morning with the axis moving slowly east to the ewrn seaboard by 12z Mon. Tight pressure gradient ahead of it will keep southerly winds gusty over the east half of the area before diminishing after midnight as winds become more southwesterly behind the trough.
Temperatures will then trend warmer through the rest of the week. Highest confidence for frost formation is in the more western counties, which will be closer to the center of the high. This high will keep the short term period dry. As the high drifts east, this will place central Indiana on the backside, which will allow S to SW flow to pull in warmer air for mid week.
1011 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A cold front moving across northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana will continue to move southeast and across the forecast area late this afternoon and early evening. By late week guidance is still split on what will become of the current Invest 92L and approaching trof from the west.
1135 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Pleasant day on tap for the western slope as high pressure to our west maintains a light westerly flow, dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and mild above seasonal high temperatures. Breezy conditions will occur at times Monday afternoon along with the low relative humidities, resulting in localized critical fire weather conditions in some valleys of northwest Colorado.
Warm front. /issued 808 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ A warm front stretches southwest-northeast across West-Central FL early this morning as deep moisture from Tropical Storm Gamma in the southern Gulf of Mexico (Details in National Hurricane Center advisories) flows into it.
RH values will be low across all of southern CO on Mon, with generally 10% or lower at the lower elevations, and the fuels are dry. Temps on Mon will be above average with highs mostly in the 80s over the plains and in the 70s in the high valleys, with upper 60s to lower 70s in Teller County.
216 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 No real concerns with this forecast as high pressure looks to dominate the mid-south for most of the upcoming week.
Gusty northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures along with higher humidities will prevail.
Dry high pressure will remain over the region with VFR continuing. /issued 1011 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ A cold front moving across northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana will continue to move southeast and across the forecast area late this afternoon and early evening. By late week guidance is still split on what will become of the current Invest 92L and approaching trof from the west.
/EC/ The forecast is on track in the near term with a weak cold front just now pushing into northwest portions of the ArkLaMiss region. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A broad mid level trough remains locked over the eastern two thirds of the nation this morning with a ridge over the west.
/Through Monday Night/ A few lingering showers in association with a weak disturbance and associated cold front will continue to move across portions of east Texas and northwest Louisiana just north of I-20 this afternoon. We should see fairly good radiational cooling tonight, which with help low temperatures fall into the mid to upper 40s for area north of I-20 to the lower 50s south of I-20. Below normal temperatures will continue across the area for Monday, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s across our northern forecast area to the lower 80s across portions of deep east Texas.
Winds will decrease overnight to mostly calm as High pressure arrives to the Midwest. With the upper level trof moving out of the region and High pressure building back into the Midwest, winds will fall to near calm overnight. with highs peaking in the low 60s. The upper level pattern will give way to weak zonal flow, with High pressure lingering across the se US. This will limit the potential southern movement of any forming Low pressure systems in Canada.
Winds will diminish a bit Monday night as high pressure skirts the area.
Early afternoon surface observations and visible satellite imagery show a cold front is moving into portions of the Hill Country and adjacent I-35 corridor generally along a Llano to near Georgetown line. Cooler temperatures are in store tonight, with lows ranging from near 50 in the Hill Country to the lower 60s along the Rio Grande.
As the mean mid level trof axis pushes east of the area today, the minimal chance of light showers or sprinkles will end, primarily along the I-64 corridor and down in the KY Pennyrile. High pressure builds in tonight.
Today, the ridge that has been responsible for the fair weather over the Northern Rockies will flatten out. Meanwhile, a subtle disturbance moves along the Canadian border east of the Continental Divide, swinging a cold front through the Northern Rockies tonight. Surface winds stay elevated as the atmosphere destabilizes under the cooler air aloft and the presence of increased upper level winds under the southern edge of a jet streak aloft.
258 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Tonight through Monday: A weak cold front will continue to push south of the ArkLaMiss region as we start the new work week. The front will be followed by high pressure and a continuation of dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
An upper trof over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic as another upper trof begins to advance across the Plains. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the immediate coast.
Sun Oct 4 2020 Low pressure along the coast will push well out to sea tonight as high pressure over the Midwest builds east.
144 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Surface ridging shifting to the east of the forecast area this afternoon resulting in surface winds veering to the east and southeast. Further veering will occur tonight as the ridge shifts further to the east and as a lee trough develops across eastern New Mexico. Modest southerly component will result in slightly warmer lows tonight compared to this morning for most areas.
142 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning with a ridge over the western U. the 500 mb trough axis is across the upper Great Lakes this morning with the axis moving slowly east to the ewrn seaboard by 12z Mon. Models suggest that the pattern will become more zonal toward the end of the week as troughing from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes lifts off to the northeast and the western CONUS ridge gives way to a trough moving in from the eastern Pacific. However, as the trough and weak cold front move through Monday night there may be some light showers over the north and especially the east.
(This evening through Monday) Slightly cooler conditions will continue across the area for the remainder of this afternoon. Otherwise, look for a cool night in the low to mid 50s.
236 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A cold front will pass through tonight and high pressure will return for Monday and Monday night.
140 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A stationary front will linger offshore while weak low pressure moves northeast along it into tonight.
A dry cold front will pass through the area later this afternoon.
210 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Warmer than normal this week. A cold front will move southeast through the area this evening turning winds around to the Northwest while clouds increase. Upper low settles into Hudson's Bay this week and helps generate a WNW flow across the area for much of this week as an upper ridge resides over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest. This will allow for the jet stream to remain to our NE and a warmer airmass to remain over the area.
Temperatures will moderate through the week and mainly dry conditions expected as high pressure dominates until late in the week. An upper level trough axis to our west will move east across the area overnight. High level moisture from Tropical Storm Gamma located in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to stream into the area this afternoon, but should exit the region overnight as an upper level trough swings through. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 70s. As the upper trough moves through tonight, short wave energy will remain north of the region. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows at night in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures on Monday will begin quite cool (40s), but end up warmer than today. With the center of the midlevel ridge remaining nearly stationary over the SW CONUS, a short wave is expected to travel along the northern periphery of this ridge.
This process will deter radiational cooling, and temperatures sunrise Monday will be 10-15 degrees warmer compared to Sunday morning. With a downslope component at least through the first half of the day, ahead of a prefrontal trough, the dry/cured soil/vegetation, and the warmer atmosphere, increased max temp grids to the 90-93 range, save the far SE zones. A weak dry cold frontal passage is expected Monday night, accompanied by a gentle northerly wind shift.
A near stationary northeast to southwest boundary will remain across the area through Monday, with high pressure to the northwest then north.
1110 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with northwest flow through the Northern Plains. At the surface, high is centered over the Upper Midwest with lee trof extending from central MT through eastern WY. Warm advection will continue today with increasing southerly winds as lee trof nudges eastward. A clipper embedded in the northwest flow will drive a weak cold front through on Monday with gusty northwest winds.
This trough will bring some gusty winds to the region tomorrow. Ahead of the trough, strong warm air advection into the area will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 70s across the north to the mid 80s for locations south of I-80. Despite the trough, no precipitation is expected as moisture remains fairly non-existent. The next potential for significant precipitation arrives late next Sunday as a low pressure system develops off the Rockies and tracks eastward across the northern Plains. In addition, a trough moving through the area will create very gusty winds up to 35 mph across western and north central Nebraska. There is some uncertainty how strong winds will get across zones 209 and 219 as the latest models show the trough weakening as it reaches the eastern zones.
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A cold front stretched through KY from a little east of KCVG to KBWG late this afternoon. Dominating high pressure moving in from the northwest will then bring clear skies Monday night. Otherwise, frost could be a concern as the high passes over.
Cold front continues its push across the Ohio Valley, with the effective boundary at 15Z in southern Indiana from near Greensburg to Evansville, and southwest from there into far western Kentucky. Low pressure over the Wabash Valley early this morning will travel up the Ohio River over the course of the day, pulling a cold front along behind it. We'll keep some clouds and light winds through the evening hours, but as the high approaches we may clouds break up enough and see the winds drop off enough by early Monday morning to support some valley fog. As we move into the start of the new work week, the upper level trough will be exiting across the Northeast while a more quasi-zonal flow settles in aloft. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will be centered over the OH Valley.
Winds will continue to strengthen through at least early afternoon Monday ahead of an approaching trough. The trough axis will begin pushing into western MN during the morning, so the window is rather narrow for stronger gusts like those farther east. The trough will continue eastward through the day and wind gusts should ease throughout the mid afternoon to early evening. A rather mild Monday with 925 mb temps of +13C near Eau Claire to as high as +18C in the thermal ridge stretching from southwest to east central MN mid afternoon. Raised temperatures a tad across MN where mid to upper 70s are expected within the thermal ridge while WI counties should remain in the 60s. Warm and dry conditions continue through the week as anomalously strong ridging builds over much of the CONUS.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a few readings hit freezing up in southern Illinois.
Low pressure to the west will lift northeast over the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. exiting east of the ridges overnight. Dry conditions return Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
Synoptic winds will also be breezy as the pressure gradient tightens in between departing high pressure and an incoming front which will pass through dry late Monday night.
Broad upper level ridging is building into the region this afternoon with neutral northerly flow transitioning to WAA from west to east late this afternoon and tonight.
Southerly flow will increase and become gusty later tonight and Monday along/west of the Kansas turnpike to the east of the developing lee side trof across the high Plains. The warmer westerly component flow off the high Plains will allow for good warming over central Kansas Monday afternoon with highs topping 80 degrees. An upper trof moving across the Midwest/Western Great Lakes Monday night will push the surface trof and weak cold front across Kansas.
308 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 After a cool start this morning with readings in the 30s, warmer air was advecting onto the Central Plains today in rising heights aloft behind a departing upper trough. With warm airmass across our region, temps will be noticeably warmer Monday, rising well above normal into the low/mid 80s. Considered a fire weather watch for our western zones where RH will be the lowest, however despite deep aftn mixing, wind speeds and gusts look to remain below criteria for a fire weather headline.
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Surface analysis early this morning shows extensive high pressure across the region, from southern Ontario province across MN and the eastern Dakotas into the central Plains. Aloft, northwest flow once again prevails on the backside of a longwave trough emanating from Hudson Bay and extending south southwest into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, while a broad ridge exists from the southwestern CONUS into the northern Rockies. After daybreak, the upper trough will shift east, allowing an appreciable rise in H5 heights.
241 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Benign weather will continue tonight in the wake of a dry cold front. Dry conditions will persist through the beginning of the work week in the wake of a cold front, as Monday looks to be another beautiful day with high temperatures topping out in the low 70s. Will begin a gradual warming trend as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to slide over the Central Plains and heights increase over the area. Veering flow starts to increase overnight, with lows nudging back up near 50 degrees, a little warmer than we have seen the past several nights.