Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmest readings look to be across the southwest CWA where portions of the I-90 corridor will be more into the lower 60s. Upper ridging will build over the region today with southerly sfc winds helping to draw up some waa. Much above average temperatures are anticipated this weekend, as an upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. However, there will be a gradual cool- down through the following work-week as the upper-level trough flattens.
The clear skies will help pull temperatures back below freezing for most by early Friday morning. Those near the city and right along the lake will likely stay above freezing with lows in the middle 30's. The steady SSW flow, with the aid of the sunshine and some midlevel height rises, will help temperatures climb into the lower 50's across the area Friday afternoon.
Upper-level ridging and increasing south to southwest winds will continue tonight into Friday, allowing for a steady warm-up to occur. Winds will ramp up on Friday, as a strong pressure gradient develops between low pressure in Sask/Manitoba and high pressure over the Ohio Valley.
Precipitation chances overall look to be low, although still cannot rule out a few showers along a weak cold front that will push from west to east Friday. An upper level ridge axis will move across the state this afternoon as it starts to deamplify. An approaching weak trough will flatten the flow further and increase cloud clover late today and tonight from the west. An associated weak cold front will bring a slight chance of light rain showers to the west overnight. Highs will be warmer today, ranging from the upper 40s across the Turtle Mountains, to the low to mid 60s across the southwest. Tonight's lows will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Friday will see decreasing clouds and breezy conditions developing behind the weak cold front.
1153 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Latest RAP analysis has northwesterly upper level flow with a ridge over the western CONUS. RH values in the lower 20s and wind gusts of 15-20 mph look to be the main concern along and west of Highway 27. Afternoon high temperatures were raised using the NBM 75th percentile, as the southwesterly winds, clear skies and advancing ridge are anticipated to have high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s especially over the western portion of the CWA. The warming trend continues with many locales reaching the low to mid 70s. Friday night, clear skies will prevail however the warmer air mass over the area will help limit radiational cooling again keeping overnight lows above freezing.
Mid/upper level troughing will persist across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing across the region. High pressure at the surface will continue to steadily build into the region through the course of today, behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. Areawide though, temperatures are also running a couple of degrees cooler due to the stubborn cloudiness. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: Very light rain will continue to be possible in the east this morning, but as high pressure builds in expect mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the day. Skies will clear overnight as high pressure and dry air continue to build in.
Will have a nice warm air advection pattern as well, so looking at lows remaining above freezing for much of the area.
Given clearing skies and light winds, another cold night is ahead tonight, with lows expected to range from the middle 30s north and across the higher terrain to 40s elsewhere. Fog that develops will likely persist until mid morning before dissipating, with temperatures rebounding into the lower to middle 70s for most Friday afternoon as rising heights overspread the region ahead of a building ridge to the west. Continued southerly surface flow Friday night and the associated increase in low-level moisture will will yield lows several degrees warmer than tonight in the 40s for most, upper 30s across portions of the northwestern Permian Basin and Lea county, and 50s expected through the Rio Grande Valley.
Upper ridge over the area today will be flattened by a disturbance tonight. An accompanying cold front will bring an increase in west winds that strengthen Friday.
428 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper level trough moving into the eastern US, with the trough axis moving east into the Mid Atlantic tonight. There is an upper level ridge stretching from the four corners region up through the northern plains, and another trough entering the pacific NW. At the surface, high pressure is to our NW over the mid west US this afternoon. The trough will continue moving east tonight and expect height rises locally. With high pressure remaining in control, expect another cold night with mostly clear skies across the region.
SE TX lies on the west side of an upper level trough axis and subsidence has begun to kick in and cigs are lifting with clearing noted on satellite. It will trend cooler tonight with clear skies in place and MinT values should fall into the lower and mid 40's most areas. Sunny skies are expected on Friday with high pressure over the Ohio Valley ridging into SE TX. Clear skies will prevail Friday night and lower dew points will filter into the region so went a few degrees cooler for MinT values with lows in the upper 30's NE to mid 40's Central and SW zones.
255 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 An upper level trough will track across the Northern Rockies tonight and push the ridge over the Central Rockies east of the Colorado. This will cause ridge top flow to increase after midnight and into Friday morning. Very warm temperatures are expected this weekend with a ridge axis centered just to the east of the state.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 50s with a nice breeze and plenty of sunshine. Freezing temperatures will kill any crops and sensitive vegetation. The aforementioned high pressure will influence our weather through the weekend.
101 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The deep trough that brought the cold weather to the CWA for the past week is now pushing off into Middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
1131 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The latest analysis has an upper ridge across the lee of the Rockies with an upper low off the WA Coast. Considerable high clouds were streaming toward the CWA, but much of these were dissipating as they are coming off the Rockies downstream of the ridge, leaving clear skies across the CWA at the moment. A low- level thermal ridge over the CWA will lead to a mild day and another mild night Thursday night/Friday morning. No major impactful weather is expected over the coming week, with the main item being gusty northwest winds behind a cold front on Friday.
Cloud to Alexandria and the surrounding areas, with upper 30s still within the cloud bank unlikely to rise any further than the lower 40s this afternoon. Another mostly clear night is expected, with fog not expected to be as prevalent due to warmer temperatures, however some patchy fog from Mille Lacs to Douglas counties remains possible. The main concern for Friday will be increasing southerly winds at 10- 15mph with some occasional gusts to 25-30mph as the pressure gradient increasing behind the departing high pressure with a weak trough bringing enough of a low pressure surface response.
208 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Upper level troughing extends southwest through the Mississippi River Valley to southeast Texas. An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front later today and traverse eastward toward Florida.
150 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday until the axis of the high crosses to the southeast overnight.
At the surface, A weak wedge of high pressure has set up and keeping low clouds and cool easterly flow across the area. The models are showing a closed low center developing over the central Gulf Tonight into Friday morning. This low center will move NE across the FL peninsula Friday night and off the FL east coast Sat. As this low center is moving across the FL peninsula Fri night good backside moisture will push NW into Central GA bringing precip to areas south and east of an Americus to Macon to August line.
And due to the low clouds and fog, have trimmed back temperatures in those areas as well. At 500 mb a trough extended from the Great Lakes down into TX, a ridge extended from southern CA up into Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and another trough was crashing into the Pacific Northwest. South/southwest winds and a warmer boundary layer should help push highs to the lower and mid 50s in western IA, ranging to around 60 west of Highway 81 in eastern NE.
As high pressure pushes eastward, expect a warming trend to begin.
Snow levels are starting out high in the warm frontal environment and widespread rain showers are expected through the evening. Snow levels begin to lower tonight, but quickly drying conditions with the cold front passage means only light high elevation snow accumulations are expected with minimal impact.
1116 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The warming trend continues today as the ridge aloft progresses over the region. There may be a slight increase in the winds as this system passes to our north especially near the WY state line and the higher elevations. Overall this wave suppresses the ridge which will dampen the warm air advection, so highs tomorrow are not far off from today.
239 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 A pattern change will unfold over the next 24-36 hours as the positively tilted longwave trof centered through the eastern CONUS continues to progress eastward and height rises aloft begin across the region tonight.
While a freezing temp or two will be possible tonight most of the area should stay above freezing as surface winds, while light, should remain out of the south to southwest helping prevent further cooling. Skies should clear the area completely tomorrow with highs warming into the upper 60s/mid 70s as upper ridging begins moving over the region.
With a upper-level low to the east and ridging to the west, quiet weather continues with a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon. Mid- level flow has become southwesterly ahead of the aforementioned ridge moving eastward with WAA being felt already this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 50s.
256 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Currently have an upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes region with upper ridging about to move into the Rockies. At the surface, ridging extends from the Ohio Valley into the Arklatex region with Lee troughing continuing to deepen. Weak upper ridging is still expected to transition to southwest flow aloft for Sat into Sun which will lead to above normal temps. Because it's been so cool lately, we forget that normal highs for this time of year are in the low 60s. Gusty south winds will accompany the warmer temps, especially on Sun, with gusts over 30 mph common.
Cloud cover still remains in place across the area with temperatures remaining in the lower to middle 50s. Winds will be light tomorrow night and lows will be back into the lower 40s to near 50 degrees.
Northwest flow will continue over western Kansas through the short term with upper level ridging building over the Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing will be found across eastern Colorado bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the 30s with highs tomorrow ranging ranging from the low 60s across central Kansas to low 70s along the KS/CO border. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue this weekend as an upper level ridge slides over the Plains.
An upper level ridge will begin to build in from the west/southwest by Friday afternoon, leading to drier conditions and temperatures warming into the upper 60s/low 70s.
Frost formation will be dependent on skies clearing sufficiently overnight but at this time a patchy frost appears possible for at least the cooler/more sheltered locales within the advisory area if clouds can diminish this evening.
302 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The confluent zone north of Cuba managed to stay convectively active into the afternoon, with outflow managing to propagate the boundary into the Lower Keys. In spite of some thinning of the high altitude overcast, temperatures remained mostly near 80 with dewpoints climbing slightly into the mid 70s. An active weather pattern is in store with a deep trough progressing eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley and southern Plains to the southeast U.
Temps are in the 60s for most, with 50s in the higher hills. Predominant flow is out of the S/SW as a lee trof approaches the area. Cool front with associated lee trof crosses the region tonight into early tomorrow. Any temperature impact from the front will be limited and short- lived, with low-level thermal ridging building over the Plains again this weekend.
/19/ Mid/upper level troughing will persist across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing across the region. High pressure at the surface will continue to steadily build into the region through the course of today, behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. Areawide though, temperatures are also running a couple of degrees cooler due to the stubborn cloudiness. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: Very light rain will continue to be possible in the east this morning, but as high pressure builds in expect mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the day. Skies will clear overnight as high pressure and dry air continue to build in.
1122 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE An area of IFR low cigs and patchy fog in the lower Pecos Valley will clear KROW thru 19Z.
A mid/upper level trough will continue to work it way east through the Deep South, while strengthening in the process through Friday. This, in addition to high pressure at the surface continuing to settle over the forecast area, will result in persistent cool dry conditions across the forecast area as we finish out the work week. Due to the cloud cover, they'll keep lows from achieving their full potential tonight, while keeping conditions a little cooler than what they could achieve on Friday. The upper trough that has been influencing our weather through the week will finally move east of the forecast area. Temperatures will be on the cooler side initially this weekend, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
1141 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Friday under high pressure. A brief return to zonal flow is anticipated, with southwesterly wind at the surface allowing for warmer weather mid-weekend. Long range ensembles indicate that temperature will gradually rise as high pressure maintains its impact through middle of the week.
248 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Key Messages: 1) Below freezing temperatures east of Highway 65 corridor tonight and over the eastern Ozarks on Friday night. As a result, areas primarily east of the Highway 65 corridor will once again see a chilly night with lows bottoming out in the upper 20s to low 30s locations along and west of Highway 65 see temperatures in the mid 30s. While low temperatures will be on the upward trend Friday night, some locations across the eastern Ozarks could still see lows below freezing given clear skies.
231 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Latest surface analysis places widespread 1030mb high pressure center across a large portion of the eastern US while satellite shows the region under mostly clear skies. 1000-925mb thickness values will gradually increase overnight, so expect temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than what experienced this morning, with morning mins ranging from the mid 20s to around 30.
343 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the area keeping skies dry for the next few days. Midlevel convergence along the west side of the high keeps overcast skies around most of the area this afternoon. The high slowly moves eastward over the weekend. Flow intensifies out of the SW CONUS advecting warmer air into the region.
Short term output from the higher resolution models offered a similar picture, mainly keeping the stratus hanging tough over the Tennessee Valley into the overnight. This moisture/clouds would help reduce radiation cooling over NW Alabama late tonight, and should keep temperatures a tad warmer. That said, the colder NAM was also hinting at this lower level moisture return, with it's MOS temperatures of 33 at Muscle Shoals. The warmer GFS has lows of 36.
1234 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 A transitional period to much milder temps will occur late this week as the persistent eastern US longwave trough is replaced by a progressive less amplified flow pattern. Friday still looks to be on the windy side as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface to mid-level trough approaching from the northern plains. The strongest 850 mb flow will be centered just ahead of the trough from northern IA into southern MN. Most areas should reach or exceed 50 degrees on Friday with continued warm advection ahead of the trough.
A weak trough will move over the district this afternoon into this evening and bring some clouds to parts of the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills.
Ridging moves to our east to allow a low pressure system and accompanying cold front to push into the FA.
1124 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday until the axis of the high crosses to the southeast overnight.
18Z temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. An expansive high pressure ridge extending from New England southwest through the Ohio Valley and into Texas will remain the dominant features through Friday night with dry weather and as the center of the high drifts east into Ohio and subtle ridging aloft develops. slightly warmer temperatures by Friday. This area of clouds is associated with a pocket of deeper moisture and higher RH values at 800mb out ahead of the approaching upper ridge. Model soundings and RH progs show increasing subsidence as the ridge aloft pokes into the Ohio Valley.
This is due to a persistent placement within the right entrance of a 90-100+ Kt H3 jet streak stretching from the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic which is keeping an inverted trough at the surface over the S Appalachians. MVFR cigs and patchy drizzle are persisting this afternoon, but as the inverted trough finally moves away, expect all sites to be dry by 20Z. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 56 37 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 57 35 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 56 35 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 56 30 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
Currently, we're under a ridge axis as the next weather system comes ashore across the PacNW. Upper level support for this system will shift the ridge axis eastward and also flatten the high as it does so.
A leeward trough will sharpen east of the Rockies ahead of this feature with winds turning southerly overnight across our area east of the trough.
Guidance again fairly aggressive with expanding dense fog, particularly on the upslope side of the Buffalo Ridge. Areas closer to the Buffalo Ridge may see temperatures stuck in the 50s if clouds persist too far past the morning hours.
Warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend.
For tonight, we will see the lower levels under an inversion saturate; especially in eastern parts of the area.
Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than we saw today with temperatures in the lower 50s across the area. The clear skies will help pull temperatures back below freezing for most by early Friday morning. Those near the city and right along the lake will likely stay above freezing with lows in the middle 30's. The steady SSW flow, with the aid of the sunshine and some midlevel height rises, will help temperatures climb into the lower 50's across the area Friday afternoon.
Quiet weather for the region as an upper level ridge builds in overnight. Southerly winds will put the CWA in a waa regime bringing in warmer temperatures for Friday with a gradual increase to above normal temperatures throughout the weekend.
805 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The weather remains quiet tonight with ridging overhead. An upper level trough will track across the Northern Rockies tonight and push the ridge over the Central Rockies east of the Colorado. This will cause ridge top flow to increase after midnight and into Friday morning. Very warm temperatures are expected this weekend with a ridge axis centered just to the east of the state.
More showers are expected this weekend with potential for snow at the higher elevations.
530 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Friday under high pressure. A brief return to zonal flow is anticipated, with southwesterly wind at the surface allowing for warmer weather mid-weekend. Long range ensembles indicate that temperature will gradually rise as high pressure maintains its impact through middle of the week.
Expect sunrise temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across most of the Midsouth resulting in widespread frost and freezing conditions. Temperatures will trend warmer over the next several days. Temperatures are in the low to mid 50s with a nice breeze and plenty of sunshine. Freezing temperatures will kill any crops and sensitive vegetation. The aforementioned high pressure will influence our weather through the weekend.
723 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Have updated to incorporate a faster temperature drop in valleys this evening and Friday evening, and to have larger ridge/valley differences for mins. Latest analysis shows an upper level trough moving into the eastern US, with the trough axis moving east into the Mid Atlantic tonight. There is an upper level ridge stretching from the four corners region up through the northern plains, and another trough entering the pacific NW. At the surface, high pressure is to our NW over the mid west US this afternoon. The trough will continue moving east tonight and expect height rises locally. With high pressure remaining in control, expect another cold night with mostly clear skies across the region.
Temperatures are sitting in the upper 30s currently on their way down to the lower to mid 30s.
Latest surface analysis places widespread 1030mb high pressure center across a large portion of the eastern US while satellite shows the region under mostly clear skies. 1000-925mb thickness values will gradually increase overnight, so expect temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than what experienced this morning, with morning mins ranging from the mid 20s to around 30.
1026 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Mainly clear skies will continue overnight with high pressure remaining over the region. Winds will remain light out of the the north, shifting eastward as the high moves to the south. 18Z temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. An expansive high pressure ridge extending from New England southwest through the Ohio Valley and into Texas will remain the dominant features through Friday night with dry weather and as the center of the high drifts east into Ohio and subtle ridging aloft develops. slightly warmer temperatures by Friday. This area of clouds is associated with a pocket of deeper moisture and higher RH values at 800mb out ahead of the approaching upper ridge. Model soundings and RH progs show increasing subsidence as the ridge aloft pokes into the Ohio Valley.
1029 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Currently - An upper trough, now aligned over the western Gulf of Mexico, is sharpening as it continues to swing eastward. Downstream of this trough is a west southwest to east northeast jet that is supporting pressure falls in the central Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough will push into the central Gulf of Mexico overnight and the associated deepening low will drive towards the northeastern to eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures should bottom out in the lower 70s with the dew point much much below that, likely leading to a soggy morning whether or not a location sees precipitation.