Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERING ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR EAST. A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST HAS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING OFF THE PERIOD.
1203 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. LCL HEIGHTS EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY MORNING.
356 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
311 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY.
339 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY LATE MORNING WITH SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 INTO SOUTH PARK. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE FCST TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
ESPECIALLY IN OUR COOLER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH RIDGING OUT WEST. AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. TO AROUND 60 ON THE RIDGES. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST SOUTH OF I-64. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS AND WE LOSE HEATING.
354 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
458 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN WHILE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 2K FT DEEP AND ONSHORE FLOW IS CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2-7 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDING WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ACROSS NORCAL RESULTING IN DIMINISHED ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS.
646 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
320 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS A TESTAMENT TO THE HEAT, THE LOW TEMPERATURE SUNDAY IN MEDFORD WAS ONLY 76, WHICH IS NOW THE HIGHEST DAILY LOW ON RECORD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS "COOLER" PATTERN WILL ONLY BE SHORT LIVED. A LARGE RIDGE, CURRENTLY SITTING OVER UTAH, WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO OUR NORTH. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
411 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND DISSOLVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. MOISTURE GRADIENT AND H85 TROUGH AXIS WITH 40 KTS FROM THE S AHEAD OF IT AND 30 KTS FROM THE SW BEHIND IT MAY BRING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OR LOW LEVEL TROUGH. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD ARISE GIVEN SUFFICIENT SPEED AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT/TROUGH. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
353 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 CLUSTER OF STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER JET NUDGES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF EASTERN CONUS CYCLONIC FLOW AND EASTERN FRINGES OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING. OWING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S. PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST.
205 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION.
A weak cold front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and along the I-49 corridor.
343 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT 3 AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. DRIER AIR IS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
656 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
1240 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
352 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD.
PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. AGREE WITH SPC PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROF IN THE EAST. WE SEE SHOTS OF VORTICITY/ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE AND EASTERN U. TROUGH POSITION.
IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the eastern half.
HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING FROM EASTERN AREAS TODAY TO WESTERN AREAS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
419 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 JET MAX ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
151 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN THE 1" RANGE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
/issued 500 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015/ WV imagery shows a fairly progressive pattern in play across the CONUS, w/West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal flow aloft as an upper trough moves thru the region today.
522 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SNAKING OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH DENSE FOG IN THE COOL AIR OVER WARMER GROUND. SOME VALLEY FOG IS THICK FROM TEXARKANA TO SHREVEPORT AND HUGGING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TERRAIN. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO OUR NORTH JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT OF FLOODING UPSTREAM. THE COLD FRONT AND CLOSED LOW WILL WRAP UP AND MOVE THROUGH RATHER PROGRESSIVELY FOR OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SEA BOARD WHILE WEAK TROFFING IS DEVELOPING OUT WEST. ONE DISTURBANCE IS SEEN PUSHING EWD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
426 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT.
328 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2015 WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
For the 12Z TAFs, patchy dense freezing fog will continue to affect northwest Arkansas sites for a few more hours this morning. /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015/ Patchy dense fog/freezing fog has begun to develop over portions of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. A freezing fog advisory will be issued shortly. Broad long-wave trough will shift out of the Intermountain West late this afternoon into tonight.
LIFR CIG/VIS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY AS WARM TROPICAL AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN OVER A RELATIVELY COOLER LAND SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SEA BOARD WHILE WEAK TROFFING IS DEVELOPING OUT WEST. ONE DISTURBANCE IS SEEN PUSHING EWD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOIST ADVCTN IN RESPONSE TO PTN AMPLIFICATION/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVR THE MIDWEST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THU. MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR CHRISTMAS AS MDLS DIFFER IN STRENGTH OF GT LKS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFICATION RESULTING OVR THE UPR OH VLY REGION.
WHILE DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE LOWEST LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 80S.
500 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 WV imagery shows a fairly progressive pattern in play across the CONUS, w/West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal flow aloft as an upper trough moves thru the region today.
A DRY BUT CLOUDY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN TEMP RISE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE YET TO RESPOND UNDER CLOUD DECK IN SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND TROUGH EXITING STATE. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MOIST ADVCTN IN RESPONSE TO PTN AMPLIFICATION/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVR THE MIDWEST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THU. MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR CHRISTMAS AS MDLS DIFFER IN STRENGTH OF GT LKS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFICATION RESULTING OVR THE UPR OH VLY REGION. A PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
928 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED A DRY BUT CLOUDY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS FAR SE MT NEAR THE NW SD BORDER. TEMPS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS ARE ALSO REMAINING IN THE LOW 40S VS 20/30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO ND TODAY WITH SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WRLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE PANHANDLES. /ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015/ A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CHRISTMAS EVE AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES CHRISTMAS DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
539 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAKE FOR A RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FORTY.
IMPROVEMENT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. THIS WARMING/RIDGING ALOFT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION. PREFNTL TROUGH LOOKS FVRBLY POSITIONED TO SPARK LOW TOPPED STORMS WED AFTN ESP WEST HALF EARLY FOLLOWED BY EWD PROGRESSION INTO EAST HALF WED EVENING. HWVR A MORE WIDESPREAD SIG EVENT UNLIKELY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING LOOKS FRAGMENTED BTWN PREFNTL TROUGH AND SFC CDFNT FTRS. REGARDLESS DRY SLOT IN ASSOCN/W THIS SYS PROGRESSES RAPIDLY NEWD W/EXPANDING SFC RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH FRI. AFT THAT THE PICTURE MUDDIES CONSIDERABLY ESP W/PLACEMENT OF BOTH STALLED SFC BNDRY INVOF OH RVR AND EVOLUTION OF VRY DEEP CYCLONE ACRS THE SWRN US AND ITS EVENTUAL NEWD EJECTION INTO THE LAKES.
WHILE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS. PRODUCING THE HIGH PRECIP VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES IT SHOULD RESULT IN THE LOWEST VSBYS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 58 71 65 / 30 100 70 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 56 69 62 / 30 100 70 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 56 68 62 / 20 90 60 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 51 68 57 / 60 100 80 50.
642 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 AT H5 BROAD TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF LOWER 48 WITH UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER NEBRASKA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM BLACK HILLS SOUTHWEST INTO GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES INT THE MID 40S TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE SNOW FIELD TO THE WEST IN THE LOWER 40S.
430 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CHRISTMAS EVE AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES CHRISTMAS DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
LOWS IN THE LOW 30S IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WEDNESDAY: A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. THIS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOW 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND THE 60-DEGREE MARK. (FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S).
1011 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MOIST AND WARM SOUTH FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE LOWER 60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CIRCULATING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
432 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2015 WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER ANDROS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 305 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST. THERE WAS A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND ERODE THE RIDGE. THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A SLOW DECLINE STARTING TOMORROW. THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN PATTERN AND MOVE INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY THIS GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND CENTERS 594-597DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
415 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
1124 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015 AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING THRU THE RIDGE FROM NW CO THIS MORNING.
BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT HEAT INDICES IN CHECK WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REACHING 100 SO FAR TODAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE RIDGE THAT PREVAILED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH NOW CNTRD OVER ERN NM WITH A TROF EXTENDING FM NEW YORK SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. POPS WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE.
344 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING. SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A VERY-HOT-DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 109-113 RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MAINLY FROM GILA BEND WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LA PAZ COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON (LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH).
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE BEING HELD IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER. TEMPS QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOW 90S. BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SFC WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
330 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WK SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO ROUNDING TOP OF PERSISTENT SWRN US UPR RIDGE WILL SHEAR OUT ACRS THE LAKES THIS PD.
640 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY. A ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER START TO THE MORNING OVER YESTERDAY MORNINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
219 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
313 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
1228 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA.
250 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
239 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT INTO THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST. AFTER 08Z WILL SEE A PUSH OF COOLER MARINE AIR WITH CIGS AOA 10K AND INCREASING WEST WINDS AFTER 14Z.
545 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE COAL FIELDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE COMMANDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AND TROUGHING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. DAMPENING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT MOVES IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.