Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak front and trough passage will produce sct SHRA/TSRA, but confidence in impacts at terminals only enough to include prob30 groups at this time.
1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Upper level pattern of ridge over the Rockies and trough to the east is in place. A consistently forecast vorticity maximum is expected to round the upper ridge late tonight into Tuesday, giving us a shot at some precip. This pattern will be stable for the rest of the forecast for the most part, with near to below temperatures and periodic small chances of rain as minor disturbances in mid-levels are allowed over our area as they round the ridge to the west.
/issued 305 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s. A cold front currently extends from northwest Indiana through southern Missouri and into the Texas Panhandle. The cold front will continue to move south into the Mid-South later today. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with more clouds and the cold front passing through. The cold front should be moving out of the region tonight. High pressure will start to build into the region bringing dry weather for tonight.
503 AM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging can be expected in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
A broad upper level ridge of high pressure was in place over the central and northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this morning. The upper ridge will undergo strengthening today through Wednesday. with the upper level high pressure center building northeastward into the central Plains.
353 AM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure will remain centered over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado today and tonight though begin slowly sliding east, especially on Wednesday. Moisture and clouds area already flowing north along the western periphery of the high circulation with a thin plume of mid clouds stretching across eastern UT this morning.
915 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure will remain in control into Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Wednesday, then stall over southern VA through the end of the week. Based on anticipated deep mixing and with 850 mb temps up to 18C, still expect highs in the lower-mid 90s. Dew points will still be in the lower to mid 60s, making the highs 90-95 a bit more tolerable than they could be. However, the approach of the cold front to our NW counties late in the day will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the NW zones.
/issued 424 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A strong upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature again today, with mainly dry and hot weather prevailing. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows in the lower 70s. (Wednesday through next Tuesday) The upper level ridge will remain the star of this week's weather pattern across the southern Plains.
The main cold front is slowly pushing into northwest IL with dewpoints dropping through the 50s across central WI. A lake breeze is then expected to turn winds more northeasterly later this afternoon with temps a few degrees cooler at the lakeshore. With the lower dewpoints across the area tonight. A large and strong mid-upper ridge centered over the interior West and Plains will be quasi-stationary through the period, putting us under light dry northerly flow on the east side of the ridge.
Otherwise, temperatures are on a cooling trend back to seasonal averages in the low 90s for western Nevada and low 80s for Sierra valleys.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 1050 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure in the region will limit moisture in the forecast area through Wednesday. The high will be more dominate off the Southeast Coast allowing an increasingly moist southerly flow to be directed into the forecast area late this week. Both surface and upper ridging expected to continue extending westward from the western Atlantic. Afternoon highs today will climb into the lower to middle 90s. There will be weak h5 troughing.
348 AM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery animation revealed mid/upper level moisture spreading across WY/NE on the anticyclonic side of a strong high pressure center situated near the Four Corners. The upper ridge is progged to build slightly over the Rocky Mountain Front Range today. Isolated diurnal convection is also forecast for the higher terrain of southeast WY and along the Cheyenne Ridge. Wednesday/s high temperatures will be a tad cooler west of I-25, but still quite warm with 90 to 95 degrees east. Little change from recent model/ensemble runs with the persistent upper ridge axis in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountain Front Range.
In other weather news, the upper level trough remains located over the far eastern Pacific is not expected to budge much through the work week. This will cause temperatures to be much cooler than this past weekend across interior NorCal. The trough will also allow the Delta Breeze to stay with us for the remainder of the week, keeping Valley overnight temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s.
In addition cooler air aloft (-8C at 500MB) should result in frequent lightning and strong gusty winds with the stronger storms. High pressure will maintain pleasant boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light east-southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Upper high to remain located across the central and southern Rockies through tonight.
641 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A cool morning to start the day across the area with temps in the low 40s. South winds on the backside of the departing high pressure system will aid in mixing and keep temps up into the 50s for most tonight. The exception will be across the eastern forested areas where high pressure ridge axis may linger with calm winds allowing for a few upper 40s. From Wednesday into the weekend the pattern will be persistent with thermal ridging and instability axis oriented across the highs plains and gradually shifting east. The upper level ridging will cause rather weak and limited bulk shear, 0 to 6km, at 30kts or less, meaning widespread organized severe convection will be limited.
Low temperatures will be cool, ranging from the lower to middle 40s north central to the lower to middle 50s in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas. Developing southeast winds will keep the lakeshore a little cooler, with highs in the lower 70s.
Favorable boating conds as a weak ridge axis over the W Atlc/Deep South generates a light to gentle E/SE breeze acrs the region.
Weakening convection ahead of the cold front has shifted south and east of our forecast area along with most of the cloud cover with a period of cooler, less humid, and dry weather expected through Wednesday. High temperatures will be cooler today, especially across northeast MO and west central IL where highs will be about 5 degrees below normal. It will be cooler tonight across the entire area as the surface dew points continue to lower with minimum temperatures down into the upper 50s across parts of our area. The cooling trend will continue on Wednesday with highs mainly in the lower 80s.
1044 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach today and stall out, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Expect maxes in the east to be in the lower 90s, but hold below 80 where the morning showers and lingering clouds keep things cooler. Maxes will run cooler than recent days with 75-85F the range. Cold front slowly approaching from the NW will bring advancing mid/high clouds into the NW mountains by mid morning and across NW half by midday. The convection will be most widespread west of a HGR-IPT-BGM line before diminishing fairly quickly by early evening, while more scattered storms impact the Lower Susq Valley later in the afternoon into the mid evening.
658 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach today and stall out, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday.
949 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today and Wednesday with a slow moving cold front. Morning cloud cover and scattered showers along a pre frontal trough should help limit instability and the severe weather potential this afternoon.
Diurnal cu should be abundant this afternoon as upper trough axis pivots overhead. Upper level trough axis will be situated over the Central Great Lakes late this afternoon/evening, but the mid levels are not terribly cold, -11 C at 500 MB and 6 C at 700 MB. The surface flow/winds will also be very weak as surface reflection/diffuse cold front slowly tracks through. 850 MB temps of 14 C suggest highs mostly in the lower 80s, except mid 80s in the urban heat of island of Detroit. Extended stretch of dry weather remains on target per 00z Euro/Canadian, as sprawling high pressure (1023 MB) builds in for the end of the work week.
The upper trough axis and surface boundary will slowly push east after Wednesday which should push the best chance for showers east of us. However, high pressure over the central U.
An upper level trough has brought cooling to the interior as well as a deep marine layer (over 3000 feet per the KACV profiler). BUFKIT x-sections indicate drying in the boundary layer on Wednesday as the trough aloft weakens and the marine inversion lowers slightly.
424 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 (Today and Tonight) A strong upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature again today, with mainly dry and hot weather prevailing. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows in the lower 70s. (Wednesday through next Tuesday) The upper level ridge will remain the star of this week's weather pattern across the southern Plains.
Northern and eastern areas (Ord to Osceola to York) may remain in the upper 70s, but portions of northern Kansas could reach the low 90s. We will see the upper level ridge strengthen a bit on Wednesday, which will lead to a warmer day on Wednesday. Central Nebraska will mainly be in the mid 80s to low 90s, but portions of northern Kansas may reach the low 100s. Tomorrow night should stay mostly dry thanks to the ridging overhead, but we cannot totally rule out a few showers or storms near the highway 81 corridor where the low-level jet convergence will be best.
/Issued 356 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ Pattern in the short term period defined by large upper trough over the eastern CONUS with weak flow at the base of the trough over the southeast states. This trough is forecast to move very slowly east thru Wednesday with the axis only making slightly headway into the state and keeping the area in weak SW flow aloft. The forecast area will remain generally in a mid level trough through the period.
608 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach today and stall out, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday.
A weak front and trough passage will produce isold-sct SHRA/TSRA, so VCSH will be included all sites.
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the short term, mid level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS will continue to expand to the north and east. Ring of fire short waves will continue to top this ridge and move across the region through the next couple days.
/issued 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ A quiet pattern will ensue through at least late week as the upper level high moves back overhead.
422 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Short Term [Today through Wednesday] GOES 16 upper level water vapor imagery indicates a trough digging into the Mississippi River Valley this morning. At the surface, a cold front extended from the Great Lakes southwestward into Central Oklahoma. Both of these features are expected to continue pushing into the lower portions of the Mississippi River Valley and into the CWA today. However, the combination of the upper level trough, associated surface front, and PWATs of 1.
Today Through Wednesday Night As of this morning, upper ridging remains fixed across the western half of the CONUS while upper troughing extends from a closed low north of the Great Lakes southward to the Tennessee Valley. Surface ridging stretches from south- central Canada to the southern Plains while the subtropical ridge axis extends from the Gulf into the Atlantic. A modest cold front to our north will slide south across the area today, but as the influence of upper troughing wanes, expecting this boundary to stall across southern AR by afternoon/evening. Surface ridging in the northern tier will slide east with the ridge axis traversing AR through the day Wednesday.
/issued 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ A large and nearly stationary upper level ridge of high pressure from the the Rockies to the western high plains will be the main weather influence for west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next several days.
Southwest flow covers Nevada today with a trough along the Pacific Northwest coast that extends southward to nrn California. On Wednesday, a weak closed low over the nrn Gulf of California streams northward toward the western Utah deserts.
542 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today and Wednesday with a slow moving cold front. Morning cloud cover and scattered showers along a pre frontal trough should help limit instability and the severe weather potential this afternoon.
535 AM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery animation revealed mid/upper level moisture spreading across WY/NE on the anticyclonic side of a strong high pressure center situated near the Four Corners. The upper ridge is progged to build slightly over the Rocky Mountain Front Range today. Isolated diurnal convection is also forecast for the higher terrain of southeast WY and along the Cheyenne Ridge. Wednesday/s high temperatures will be a tad cooler west of I-25, but still quite warm with 90 to 95 degrees east. Little change from recent model/ensemble runs with the persistent upper ridge axis in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountain Front Range.
The upper level ridge will be centered over northern NM today and tonight, with the best plume of moisture remaining to the west over AZ and UT. Should see showers/tstms develop over the higher terrain around noon, and then increase thru the afternoon over the mtns and high valleys. The Upper Arkansas River Valley and the San Luis Valley should see highs in the lower and mid 80s. Upper high will be centered over southeast Colorado Wednesday with monsoon moisture plume across Arizona and Utah. Lingering moisture over south central and southeast Colorado will allow for scattered thunderstorms over the higher elevations, especially the San Juan mountains. It will be a bit cooler in the mountains and high valleys with some clouds and thunderstorms to keep temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s.
4") in the mid/upper levels across SE GA and inland NE FL will provide for mainly dry and hot weather conditions as Max Temps reach into the lower to middle 90s. Max temps will range from the upper 80s at the coast to the lower 90s along the St Johns River Basin and US 301 corridor which should be enough to trigger a few storms and with slow storm motion from the Southwest at 5-10 mph expect locally heavy rainfall to be the main threat, but some cool mid level temps of -7C/-8C at 500 mb will provide enough instability for a few strong storms with wind gusts to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning which Hi-Res models are currently focusing in the Putnam/Marion county areas late this afternoon.
High pressure centered in ND with ridge extending into eastern KS. Today and tonight: High pressure and a very dry airmass will bring clear skies and very comfortable temperatures and humidity to the cwa.
240 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach and stall out over western Pennsylvania tonight, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Coverage may diminish to nothing across the Lower Susq and isolated elsewhere. We will hold onto a chc of showers and storm, with the highest chances being across southern PA.
However, as troughing remains over the region, in addition to the stalled weak front and a moist airmass, a shower or two bubbling up through the overnight hours can't be ruled out. This is as a result of ridging aloft increasing from the west.
An upper ridge remains over the western CONUS with northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State region. Normal high temperatures range from the upper 80s to low 90s with normal lows ranging from the low to mid-60s.
For the remainder of the short term forecast period, the PAH forecast area will be under northwesterly flow aloft just to the east of a western CONUS ridge, with general high pressure at the surface (centered over the Great Lakes). This pattern will yield another rain-free round of cooler than average temps and reasonably pleasant humidity levels.
1157 AM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure will remain centered over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado today and tonight though begin slowly sliding east, especially on Wednesday. Moisture and clouds area already flowing north along the western periphery of the high circulation with a thin plume of mid clouds stretching across eastern UT this morning.
While these diurnal showers should fade with sunset, more showers may re-appear overnight into early Wednesday across that same area due to a low level trough which persists along I-94.
233 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Upper ridge over the ridge will continue to cause hot conditions over the next few days with temperatures gradually warming each day.
Cooler and drier air will spread into the region for the next several days.
133 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today and Wednesday with a slow moving cold front. There is still widespread cloud cover between a line of thunderstorms that has developed across the ridges, the initial line of showers moving along the I-79 corridor, and a more scattered area of showers currently across north-central Ohio.
A rather quiet weather pattern will continue over the area for the next several days as forecast models keep the dry southwest flow in place over the area and high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest.
The western ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners, stretching from the Pacific to the mid-lower Missouri Valley. This will help support renewed development overnight, associated with a weak 500mb short wave trough, and possible minor MCS over NE/IA.
410 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over James Bay and a ridge from the southern Rockies through the Northern Plains resulting cyclonic westerly flow through the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley was slowly building to the east. Tonight, As high pressure continues to build into the region, expect favorable radiational cooling conditions with PWAT values dropping below 0. This will allow temps to drop into the lower 40s inland with even some upper 30s possible in favored cold spots. Dewpoints will also drop into the lower 40s inland with min RH values around 30 percent. Quiet, dry and slightly above normal warm weather is expected to prevail through the middle part of the week as high pressure continues to dominate our local weather.
Highs should be a tad cooler than today, generally in the lower 80s. Little change in this part of the forecast into the first part of the weekend, as the ridge builds across the Rockies late this week.
Temperatures in the mid-90s this afternoon will drop to the high 60s and low 70s overnight.
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A cold front will approach late today and cross the region on Wednesday.
232 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 The center of an upper level ridge will shift slightly to the east over the next few days to a position nearly overhead of the South Plains.
142 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A cold front will move into the area late today and then slowly cross the region tonight and Wednesday before finally pushing off to the east on Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes for the end of the week into the weekend. Mid level trough across the region will not start to move out until Wednesday. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will enter the region from the west at the beginning of the period and take until near the end of the period before exiting out of the eastern counties. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 60s tonight with highs getting back into the lower 80s on Wednesday. The potential for a few thunderstorms across the lower Scioto Valley will come to an end Wednesday night.
1049 AM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging can be expected in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
Ridging aloft centered over northeast NM will nudge east thru tomorrow.
For the short term, mid level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS will continue to expand to the north and east. Ring of fire short waves will continue to top this ridge and move across the region through the next couple days.
Northwest flow a loft and high pressure at the sfc are the main culprits for the string of quiet, nice days. Under northwesterly upper level flow with ridge centered over southwestern U. With high pressure meandering overhead, a light wind field in the vertical and clear skies will promote fog in the river valleys.
Northwesterly flow has already built into the region that will transport cooler and especially drier air into Upper Michigan, but in the meantime there is still some lingering low level moisture producing cloud cover over mainly the west half this morning. Skies will clear out completely by the afternoon today with seasonally cool temps topping out in the 60s along Lake Superior from Marquette eastward and into the low to perhaps mid 70s elsewhere. Quiet, dry and slightly above normal warm weather is expected to prevail through the middle part of the week as high pressure continues to dominate our local weather.
The cold front to our north will move across the Mid- South this evening, pushing what's left of this afternoon's convection out of the CWA. /issued 305 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s. A cold front currently extends from northwest Indiana through southern Missouri and into the Texas Panhandle. The cold front will continue to move south into the Mid-South later today. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with more clouds and the cold front passing through. The cold front should be moving out of the region tonight. High pressure will start to build into the region bringing dry weather for tonight.
157 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 156 PM CDT High pressure centered over Minnesota this afternoon will drift eastward into Wisconsin tonight. A large and strong mid-upper ridge centered over the interior West and Plains will be quasi-stationary through the period, putting us under light dry northerly flow on the east side of the ridge.
253 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure overhead has led to light winds, sunny skies, and dry conditions. Dry air lingers tonight which will allow radiational cooling to drop tonights lows again into the lower 40s and locally into the upper 30s.
1117 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Mostly cloudy skies this morning with widely scattered showers ahead of an upper level trough over middle Tennessee.