Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The primary weather headline of the immediate short term continues to be the approaching cold front and associated/ongoing convection. Mostly VFR through the period with the exception of lowered cigs/visb in association with cold frontal shra/tsra early Sunday morning. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 75 54 69 52 / 60 40 10 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 76 52 67 49 / 50 60 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 65 75 50 67 49 / 70 60 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 75 47 65 45 / 20 40 0 10 20.
Temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. An upper trough approaching the state from the west will be producing light snow in the mountains tomorrow night.
718 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An upper level low over eastern Nebraska this afternoon will lift ne into the upper Midwest overnight. Thunderstorm activity is still expected to ramp up later afternoon, as a pre-frontal trof moves into southeast Missouri by 5 or 6 p. The trof will push east through the evening, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Given we are already in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we maintained our inherited warmer highs than any blend option.
807 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected through tomorrow with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Shower coverage will increase through Sunday afternoon as an upper trough moves through the Pacific Northwest.
941 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 A very strong dome of mid-upper level high pressure is sitting over the Eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula this evening.
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 442 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The cold front pushed across the western portions of the CWA this morning and is currently sweeping through the Coastal Bend and the Victoria Crossroads. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front as the winds shift out of the north. The cold front is expected to stall in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Today: A quiet and warmer Sunday is anticipated across the region. Monday: Mid-lvl ridging will lead to another dry day on Monday, as a southeast surface wind develops. Once again, with slightly warmer 925 mb temperatures and more sun than clouds, we should see temperatures climb above the seasonal normals and into the 50s.
An upper level low over eastern Nebraska this afternoon will lift ne into the upper Midwest overnight. Thunderstorm activity is still expected to ramp up later afternoon, as a pre-frontal trof moves into southeast Missouri by 5 or 6 p. The trof will push east through the evening, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Given we are already in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we maintained our inherited warmer highs than any blend option. The mid-upper level trof will emerge from the southwest U.
Widespread rain is expected from Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. A weak weather system may bring light rain to the North Bay on Monday, otherwise dry high pressure will start to build.
1107 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 (This evening through Sunday) A Pacific cold front has moved through the area this afternoon as the attendant surface cyclone accelerates northeastward toward the Midwest.
1220 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Fairly quiet on the back end of the large low pressure system churning across Iowa and Minnesota. Precipitation associated with the low pressure system currently centered over eastern Nebraska has made its way to the far eastern part of the CWA this afternoon. This will also likely mean lower rain amounts that previously forecast as well, with the highest amounts of around a quarter inch still possible in the far southeastern part of the CWA and lesser amounts to the north and east. High pressure drops in over the area behind the exiting system on Sunday, with dry conditions expected Sunday and Sunday night.
A slightly cooler air mass has moved into the area and highs will warm into the middle to upper 60s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 40s.
202 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected through the morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
The cold front, that just passed through the area, is part of a strong stacked low pressure system centered over Wisconsin. Tonight, winds will continue to slow as the low pressure system drifts farther northeast and the high advances east into the Mississippi Valley.
244 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low continuing northeast over Eastern Nebraska. Sunday will be warmer and much more pleasant as an upper level short wave ridge moves overhead. Even though an upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area during the night, soundings show large dew point depressions until Monday morning. Lows will be almost 10 degrees warmer than tonight. Currently, this upper ridge does not develop as a strong upper low drops into the NW/NC Rockies and slowly moves eastward thru the northern Plains region into the first half of the upcoming weekend.
435 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Currently - A high pressure system centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda extends a ridge across Florida in to the Gulf of Mexico. Very stable conditions are in place with strong deep layered ridging aloft and a stunning subsidence inversion based around 940 mb with incredibly dry air above. Short Term Update - The high pressure system off the coast will gradually slide southeastwards over the next couple of days as the upper level ridge pivots more zonally.
341 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Quiet weather and sunny today as we are on the backside of a strong low pressure system that is off to our east. A high pressure ridge will be over the region tonight and will allow for clear skies, with northerly winds eventually becoming southeast by daybreak. A trough moving through the Rockies will move onto the Plains Monday.
153 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 A cold front will move through the area early this morning.
Less windy, but a touch cooler conditions expected today behind the departed system.
A warm front extended eastward from the low, generally along the IA/MO border. Behind the low is a tight surface pressure gradient but the one feature that really stands out from the 18z analysis is the lack of cold air behind the system. In fact, most temperatures on the backside of the low were in the lower to mid 40s. Scattered thunderstorms across the area have dropped mainly pea-sized hail with a very low freezing level. Of note, we recently had a gust to 53 mph at FNB with the southwesterly winds on the southern side of the low. It continues to look like much of the precipitation should remain to the west and south of our area but have included pops to account for any northward placement of the mid-level trough.
Focus in the short term is on the high winds occurring across the southern half of the forecast area. That will leave the area under northwest flow loft tonight with light westerly winds, and temperatures falling back below freezing once again over a large portion of the area. Next opportunity for precipitation and thunderstorms returns on Monday as the ECMWF shows a more southerly trajectory wave digging into the Southern High Plains and an upper low more focused over the DDC forecast area and northwest Oklahoma.
Plenty of isentropic lift and 500 mb PV advection will remain in place on the back side of the system, along with a tiny bit of instability, to produce continued shower chances today as the low pushes off to the east across Wisconsin. Trend has been toward a little bit slower progression of the low, which will keep precip lingering in the forecast area into the early evening hours. Can't completely rule out some Wind Advisory level (45+ mph) gusts, but with 30-40 mph being on the higher end of guidance and the aforementioned hindrance to mixing, would think those advisory-level speeds would be somewhat spotty. Expect a cooler night compared to the past several days, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
358 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected through the morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
As the strong upper level low pressure system continues to lift out into the upper midwest and Great Lakes, we will see the strong northwest surfaces diminish. With the sunshine and just a modest amount of CAA behind the cold front temperatures will be in the mid 60s today. Slight ridging moves over the region by tonight which will also help keep the temperatures comfortable. Relatively weak upper level trof moves from the west coast into the Texas Panhandle inducing a weak lee side trof which draws up some Gulf of Mexico moisture into Kansas by afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The most recent surface analysis indicates a stationary front along the Lower Texas Coast. The stationary front is expected to transition to a warm front and slowly work back through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, maintaining the opportunity for isolated showers. Temperature-wise, with no significant cold air having been introduced with the passage of the cold front, near to above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures are anticipated.
Plenty of solar today as a strong low pressure system moves out of the region. Will see brisk northerly winds, especially in the southern valley, which will usher in slightly cooler temps and keep daytime highs in the upper 30s and 40s. with models showing the greatest impacts/lowest visibilities over southeastern North Dakota where SE winds create a subtle upslope into the higher elevations of the escarpment.
Strong winds on the southern periphery of this trough will mix into the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Watch has been issued. The trough will also push another pacific front through the area, though being cutoff from colder air to the north will have little impact on temperatures.
914 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The upper level trough along the west coast will weaken as it tracks east across the Great Basin Sunday through Sunday night.
/issued 652 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ Latest surface analysis places a 993mb low pressure system over southwestern Iowa, with a warm front extending eastward through north central Illinois, and a cold front extending southward through western Missouri and into Little Rock, Arkansas. Storms have begun to fire just ahead ahead of the cold front in Central and eastern Arkansas. However, the risk for QLCS-type tornadoes will likely increase this evening, as the low level jet picks up and storms organize into quasi linear segments. A few trailing post-frontal showers are possible overnight as the main trough lifts out of the area. Pacific high pressure will build into the Mid-South for Sunday, leading to dry and pleasant conditions. High pressure will quickly slide by Monday as another system develops to our southwest.
This trof will quickly translate eastward throughout the day. Strong winds should overspread the area as a 50 kt 700 hpa jet rotates through the base of the trof.
/issued 828 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ Ridging aloft over the state coupled with surface ridging over the W Atlantic extending across the Peninsula maintain our warm and dry conditions. Ridging aloft will finally begin to loosen its grip Sunday, allowing for slight moderation of afternoon highs. High pressure remains in place across the waters through Monday with mainly light southeast flow in place, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.
The next storm system to impact the region will moving across the Four Corners region by sunrise Monday and this will result in a weak area of low pressure to develop across southeastern Colorado.
A 70-90 kt mid-level jet in the southeastern portion of the upper trough will overspread the region this evening and overnight. Convection today has been concentrated along the warm front now well to our north as well as a southward extending pre-frontal trough now over Missouri and Arkansas. A deep southerly plume of moisture continues to stream northward in the warm sector along and downstream of the pre-frontal trough. Sunday looks somewhat cooler (but not cold) and quite windy.
The Pacific cold front was pushing into the Coastal Plains this afternoon. Cooler tonight with lows ranging from the 40s in the Hill Country to low 50 elsewhere. Mid and high clouds are forecast to return during the day on Sunday, in the west and southwest flow aloft ahead of another developing trough. A warm front is forecast to move back north into the region late Sunday night into Monday morning, with south and and southeastly low level flow deepening.
Clouds will continue to clear out quickly in the far eastern forecast area as strong low pressure to our east continues churning to the northeast and a ridge builds into the region today. Light winds and sunny skies will lead to a warmer day today with above average highs mostly in the 50s to around 60 degrees along and west river. Temperatures Monday will generally be a few degrees warmer than today. The next system begins to work its way towards the region Monday as low pressure over the high plains pushes east and starts to become more organized. At the beginning of the period a broad mid-level trof is digging into the northwest CONUS with broadly diffluent flow across the Northern Plains.
Overnight, cloud cover continues to increase from the southwest ahead of another trough currently moving into the Great Basin. The lower atmosphere then moistens overnight and snowfall descends to valleys floors allowing for a dusting. Low valleys will see freezing temperatures again tonight but those will be moderated (somewhat) from yesterday due to the increasing cloud cover overnight. The forecast area should be right in the axis of the aformentioned trough on Monday morning. As this trough moves eastward, precipitation chances will be at their highest across the southern mountains in the morning hours.
423 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 A cold front will move through the area early this morning.
More strong winds will redevelop later today behind a strong cold front with speeds from 25 to 35 mph with some gusts possible to 50 mph.
327 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will move across the Great Lakes today. High pressure returns for tonight and Monday, with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures.
After sunrise, the foggy areas will clear more quickly than the low cloudiness which will more gradually lift and scatter through the morning. The highest confidence in areas of dense fog is from the eastern FL Big Bend northward into portions southwest GA. An approaching cold front could lead to an isolated shower and rumble of thunder west of the Flint River into the Wiregrass region Sunday afternoon.
The primary weather headline of the immediate short term continues to be the approaching cold front and associated/ongoing convection. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 54 69 52 60 / 30 10 10 70 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 52 67 49 56 / 60 0 10 50 90 Oak Ridge, TN 75 50 67 49 55 / 60 0 10 50 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 47 65 45 54 / 40 0 10 20 90.
318 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 A cold front is forecast to move across the area today and this evening.
Skies should clear out from west to east this morning, with cooler air moving in as well behind the front.
/Today through Monday/ Skies continue to clear in the wake of a cold front. The next upper trough will quickly move into Four Corners Region and into the Eastern Rockies by Monday morning. Showers will be possible along the warm front as early as tonight, but more likely during the morning hours before sunrise Monday.
All activity will form ahead of a fast moving cold front, and should be east of the forecast area by 29/00z.
1114 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Afternoon GOES-R satellite composite imagery showed the stacked low pressure system over eastern NE, with a trailing cold front southwest through central KS and northwest into eastern CO. Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to upper 40s. Aside from light snow over high elevations of Carbon County, it will be drier with winds diminishing this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds east into the CWA. Cold frontal passage remains on track around Wed/ Thu. Widespread gusty wind & considerably cooler temperatures will be the main story.
Cooler weather and additional showers are expected for the coming week. A Great Lakes cyclone will continue to pull mild and moisture- rich air into NY and PA today. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s Sunday night and rise to near 50 Monday. A broad mid-level trough and upper level low will be in place across the region. This trough, coupled with west and northwest winds will likely lead to some scattered rain showers throughout this period.
1105 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest analysis shows the upper trough is moving off to the east of the forecast area as an upper ridge builds to the west. Rain showers currently over parts of south central South Dakota will taper off later this afternoon as the low pressure system moves farther away from the forecast area. Drier air moving in and subsidence associated with the building upper ridge will lead to clearing skies tonight with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Monday will be a little warmer with a chance of afternoon showers over parts of western South Dakota due to the combined instability of diurnal heating and a southern stream trough that will cross the central plains. The pressure gradient ahead of trough may bring breezy southerly return flow.
As the high moves to the east later today and tonight, southerly winds will return, and low-level moisture will begin to return with it.
1056 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low continuing northeast over Eastern Nebraska. Sunday will be warmer and much more pleasant as an upper level short wave ridge moves overhead. Even though an upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area during the night, soundings show large dew point depressions until Monday morning. Lows will be almost 10 degrees warmer than tonight.
This could result in significant snow in the higher mountains of northeast Oregon and Southeast Washington as well as the Cascades Sunday night into early Monday. Winds are expected to increase with and behind the main cold front with this next weather system as mixing takes place with the cold front and strong winds aloft are mixed down to the surface. May need highlights for snow for the Blues/Cascades as well as wind highlights on Monday for some areas, especially the Lower columbia Basin. After that the forecast area will remain in a cyclonic flow under a broad upper low pressure system over south central Canada with periodic weather disturbances bringing showery and unsettled weather during the coming week.
Rotation quickly weakened as the storm crossed the warm front into the more stable air mass. - Izzi 359 AM CDT Low pressure associated with the current storm system will begin its occlusion into Sunday and it will track toward Lake Superior through the day. High pressure will push in making for dry but seasonably cool temperatures. We will get a reinforcing shot of cooler air with northeast winds on the northern fringes of this system, thus highs will remain in the 40s area wide, coolest lakeside. Some moderation will occur midweek as we await a western trough for the latter half of the week which will bring better precipitation chances and continued cooler weather. Southwest winds will slowly increase overnight reaching the lower 30kt range before daybreak and then into the 35-40kt range by mid/late morning.
Gusty W/NW winds assocd with this sys were ushering cooler and much drier air into the state. Look for dry and cooler conds to prevail acrs the FA today as a high pres center slides EWD thru the region.
207 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 07z surface analysis had low over southeast MN with weak ridge over the northern Rockies into the central plains. Water vapour had ridging over the northern Rockies heading our way. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts east with weak warm air advection in the lower troposphere.
300 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Ridge aloft will keep dry and warm conditions going across the area today. Will see the ridge shift east on Monday with more unstable southwest flow developing during the day.
259 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine Low pressure will move northeast of Lower Michigan today with strong winds gusting over 40 mph into this evening along with some rain showers. Conditions will improve for Monday and he rest of the week looks fair with temperatures cooler than average.
Drier and cooler conditions will build in to start the work week.
Cooler weather and additional showers are expected for the coming week with an upper level disturbance parked over the Northeast U. A Great Lakes cyclone will continue to pull mild and moisture- rich air into NY and PA today. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s Sunday night and rise to near 50 Monday. Short term will be dominated by an upper level low stationed over the NE U.
1253 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected through the morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low lifting over the Upper Midwest. A third upper low could be see over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a low pressure system was lifting into WI and weak ridging was filling in behind this system across the southern and central plains. The main affect of this is to shift the higher POPs south, although still maintaining likely POPs across most of the forecast area.
700 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 strong winds will redevelop later today behind a strong cold front with speeds from 25 to 35 mph with some gusts possible to 50 mph.
649 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 A cold front will move through the area early this morning.
Quiet weather and sunny today as we are on the backside of a strong low pressure system that is off to our east. A high pressure ridge will be over the region tonight and will allow for clear skies, with northerly winds eventually becoming southeast by daybreak. A trough moving through the Rockies will move onto the Plains Monday.
Dewpoints are now in the lower to middle 50s across a large portion of the forecast area. Only extreme coastal Louisiana continues to see higher dewpoints in the lower 70s as they are still on the warm side of the front. Temperatures are on track, so no adjustments to expected afternoon highs in the lower 80s were made.
(This afternoon through Monday) Slight changes to temperatures and dewpoints today and tonight, a few degrees cooler most locations.
653 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Bands of rain and snow continue to rotate around an upper low, which is crawling northeast across Dakota County early this morning during its occlusion process. The upper low will begin accelerating to the east later this morning. Northwest winds will gust to 35 mph today, but as the system departs this evening and surface ridging builds in overnight, winds will diminish and become light and variable by Monday morning. Mostly clear skies overnight and heavy precipitation from this weekend should promote areas of fog/freezing fog after midnight. A trough over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest will be the main feature the active pattern focuses on.
sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures are expected across the region today in wake of yesterdays low pressure system. upper level ridging responsible for todays nice weather will continue. An upper level low off the coast of central California will make its way into the central Plains on Monday. rain showers and slightly cooler temperatures back to the region.
507 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 07z surface analysis had low over southeast MN with weak ridge over the northern Rockies into the central plains. Water vapour had ridging over the northern Rockies heading our way. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts east with weak warm air advection in the lower troposphere.