Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper trough positioned over the Pacific NW will feed further shower development this afternoon along with isolated thunderstorms, primarily over southeast Oregon and higher terrain of southwest Idaho. Surface winds: NW 15-25kt with gusts to 40kt for the Lower Snake River Plain and Magic Valley, otherwise N-NW 5-15 kt. Meanwhile, a large upper trough that extends from our area to the west coast will lead to isolated morning showers that will expand in coverage this afternoon - promoted by daytime heating. the bulk of the showers will develop over the higher terrain.
1223 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 High pressure builds in from the west into tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across east Tennessee keeping with light and variable today and tonight.
High pressure reigns as the forecast remains on track into the afternoon forecast package. /Issued 736 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ Continued southerly to southeasterly low level fetch will persist under an amplified upper ridge, which will allow for an unseasonably warm and mostly clear end to the work week and start to the weekend. Max temps today and Saturday above climo norms generally in the low to mid 80s and overnight min temps near normal generally in the low to mid 50s this morning and a bit warmer for Saturday morning with much of the area in the mid 50s. Baker It will be warm to close out the weekend and start the new work week as persistent upper ridging remains situated across the region.
240 PM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Current surface map shows low over southeast Wyoming with warm front/trof extending northward into western South Dakota. with some lingering potential across south central South Dakota along cold front/dryline. While snowfall snowfall amounts will generally be an inch or two, some upslope enhancement is possible on the higher ridges.
257 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A tranquil, pleasant short term forecast continues with highs in the low 80s and morning lows in the mid 50s with clear skies outside a bit of afternoon cumulus and light SE winds.
VFR conditions should prevail through much of the upcoming period along with strong southerly winds which should veer to west- southwesterly as a Pacific cold front arrives late this evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the Panhandles today through this evening ahead of a closed upper low tracking east across the Great Basin region and across the central U. The closed upper low is expected to lift north and east into the northern Plains states by 12Z Saturday.
1215 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A secondary cold front and upper trough will cross the region later today.
1254 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A warm front brings chances of light rain to areas from Pittsburgh on north tonight into Saturday morning.
Cooler temps have kept a fairly stout capping inversion overhead with 15Z LBB AMDAR sounding showing a +6C inversion and a convective temp of 84F. The upper low currently over the Four Corners will push a Pacific Front through the region late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to near 10 percent area wide tomorrow afternoon despite slightly cooler temps.
332 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 High pressure builds in from the west into tonight.
Look for more of the same tomorrow, though it will be a little warmer and more breezy.
221 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Upper level ridging stretching from the Rio Grande Valley to the southeast US settles down across the Gulf of Mexico and FL during Sat. The main concern is some breezy winds as high pressure maintains a tight pressure gradient across the area. High pressure centered north of the terminals maintains ENE or E winds. Have opted to just extend the advisory rather than create any confusion by dropping then re- issuing the advisory High pressure on the Mid-Atlantic coast slides out over the Atlantic during the weekend and continues east as a weak and dryish front moves in late Tue or Wed. High pressure continues through the weekend with dry air and some robust winds.
943 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022 MORNING UPDATE: Temperatures were a bit warmer than expected this morning so went ahead and raised maximum temperatures a few degrees for this afternoon. High impact winter storm set to bring significant precipitation to the region with blizzard conditions expected for eastern Strengthening low pressure will lift northeast into North Dakota this weekend, with precipitation spreading across the Northern High Plains along the way. Temperatures will be warm enough for rain and a wintry mix initially which may even include some freezing rain, but as the storm tracks to the NE and colder air wraps around it from the north, more places will transition to snow.
312 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A remarkable warm front is set up over the area today, with a widespread thunderstorm with torrential rainfall rates event ongoing just north of it. This is despite building CAPE values available, as the southern CWA is in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. These reading are going to be lower than the overnight temperatures by nearly 10 degrees!!! As convection wanes through 5 PM, we'll see the warm front lift north, and as is does so, we'll see temperatures rise at least 10 degrees higher in the north by late evening, which makes the whole idea of tonight's low temperature irrelevant. Saturday night, a strong cold front will arrive.
Broad upper level ridging is dominating the weather pattern across the entire Southeast today. Following a clear and calm night with mild overnight temperatures, we could have an even warmer day for your Saturday by a degree or so.
Breezy south winds will continue through the night, and with dewpoints generally in the lower 60s expect very mild overnight lows. Could see a few scattered showers a perhaps a storm across northeast OK late tonight into early Saturday in associations with the low-level jet. Storms will likely become more linear later in the evening as the cold front catches up to the dryline across northeast OK, although a weakening trend is likely into the overnight hours as instability wanes.
254 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Tonight will be dry and about 10 degrees warmer than normal in light south surface flow well ahead of a storm system over the Plains. South winds will continue with some gusts of 20-25mph, pulling temperatures into the 80-85 degree range beneath upper ridging.
This should easily maintain the unseasonably warm trend, as highs both Sat/Sun climb predom into the lower/mid 80s, while lows Sat night trend more in the upper 50s/lower 60s. A little bit of a pattern change is then expected Sun night into the first half of the work week, as the upper ridge translates east into the Atlantic states, while an upper trough pattern dives into the Plains states. The front continues to exit to the east more into Mon night, as another large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states builds into much of the region. This should likewise bring a return of quiet/tranquil wx conditions starting Tue, with overall temps closer to seasonal trends given the passage of the cold front earlier.
This is in part thanks to a large surface anticyclone parked along the eastern U. Otherwise, the strong anticyclone will keep windy conditions going through the overnight and into Saturday.
By 03z isolated storms are possible along/east of the CO/KS border as a cold front starts to move through. a 545dam upper low pressure center over western Nebraska in the morning is expected to lift northeast into South Dakota by the end of the day then into southeast North Dakota overnight. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower to upper 60s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s to middle 70s elsewhere. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, amplified ridging is evident across the nation's midsection with upstream troughing digging across the Intermountain West. Initial chances arrive tonight as convection is already ongoing to our southwest in advance of a slow northward moving warm front, that's expected to slowly trek south to north across the forecast area tonight through Saturday. Ongoing convection to our southwest has made little northward progress through much of the day owing to antecedent dry air across northern Michigan as high pressure overhead earlier this morning has been slow to retreat northeast. Unseasonably Warm then Sharply Cooler.
Temperatures tonight will reach the low to mid 60s across the interior and hover near 70s along the coastline. Strong, large high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic and eastern U.
A remarkable warm front is set up over the area today, with a widespread thunderstorm with torrential rainfall rates event ongoing just north of it. This is despite building CAPE values available, as the southern CWA is in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. These reading are going to be lower than the overnight temperatures by nearly 10 degrees!!! As convection wanes through 5 PM, we'll see the warm front lift north, and as is does so, we'll see temperatures rise at least 10 degrees higher in the north by late evening, which makes the whole idea of tonight's low temperature irrelevant. Saturday night, a strong cold front will arrive.
/issued 328 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ Upper ridging this afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into the Great Lakes. A deep upper trough was noted over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure over eastern Canada extended southward into the Carolinas, then westward into our area. Low pressure was developing over Colorado. Mid-afternoon temperatures were generally in the lower and middle 80s, with dew points in the 60s.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: This weekend: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an omega-like pattern over the CONUS with upper level troughs over the western CONUS and the New England states and the ridge over the central CONUS. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend along with a slow increase in moisture.
327 PM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A break from precip late this morning, allowed temps to get a bit warmer over central zones today. Expect a period of very heavy snowfall for the higher terrain in Big Horn county and from Treasure county eastward. Snowfall shifts eastward through Saturday afternoon as the upper low slips northeast.
These wild swings are courtesy of a deep low pressure trough that will push across Colorado tonight and tomorrow.
Water vapor imagery showing strong upper trough digging into the Great Basin with thunderstorm activity in Utah. Winds look to be the most consistent issue through Saturday afternoon as the strong upper trough surges northeast. 925 mb winds staying around 40 knots should keep strong winds in place for much of Saturday before a cold front moves in late in the day. Activity in the High Plains is still on track to diminish with eastward extent overnight and should struggle to reach the local area. Main coverage of precip is still expected from late Saturday afternoon through the night as the dry line and cold front surge through, with weakening lapse rates slowly limiting high-based coverage during the day.
534 PM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Current surface map shows low over southeast Wyoming with warm front/trof extending northward into western South Dakota. with some lingering potential across south central South Dakota along cold front/dryline. While snowfall snowfall amounts will generally be an inch or two, some upslope enhancement is possible on the higher ridges.
Storms will likely become more linear later in the evening as the cold front catches up to the dryline across northeast OK, although a weakening trend is likely into the overnight hours as instability wanes.
Most of the area climbed into the low to middle 80s. Clear skies, fairly light wind and dew points mostly in the 50s will allow temperatures to fall into the low to middle 60s.
/NF/ This weekend: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an omega-like pattern over the CONUS with upper level troughs over the western CONUS and the New England states and the ridge over the central CONUS. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend along with a slow increase in moisture.
/Issued 257 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ A tranquil, pleasant short term forecast continues with highs in the low 80s and morning lows in the mid 50s with clear skies outside a bit of afternoon cumulus and light SE winds.
Once the wind settles down this evening and the rain chances end tonight as low pressure over southern Utah pulls away to the east, the main concern for Saturday will be northerly winds gusting to near 40 mph in the Colorado River Valley. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer areawide than what we saw today.
On Saturday our CWA will be under drier but still cool northwest flow aloft between the exiting trough to our east and an incoming ridge from the west.
929 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Milder and mostly sunny skies are on the docket for today as high pressure slides overhead. Tonight, a warm front will push up through the Ohio River Valley, bringing the chance of light rain showers ahead of the front for tonight and Saturday morning.
Tonight will be dry and about 10 degrees warmer than normal in light south surface flow well ahead of a storm system over the Plains. South winds will continue with some gusts of 20-25mph, pulling temperatures into the 80-85 degree range beneath upper ridging.
610 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 The short term portion of the forecast will be dominated by high pressure. It will cause large scale subsidence in the atmospheric column that results in surface temperatures reaching into the lower 80s thru the first half of the weekend. South winds will be daytime breezy, and become a little more gusty on Saturday as our next developing system approaches and squeezes the gradient together a little tighter between it and the ridge to the east.
853 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 High pressure remains in place through early Saturday.
802 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 The weather feels like Ground Hog day here in Florida as persistent high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast and a relatively tight gradient over the forecast area continues to produce partly cloudy breezy warm dry days and mostly clear skies at night with lighter winds.
707 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 (Issued 706 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022) A line of thunderstorms developed along the 925mb warm front this evening. Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected Saturday, with temperatures in the upper 70s expected across southern Wisconsin. Winds will shift to southerly and be gusty on Saturday ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
925 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue across the CWA overnight. /Issued 257 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ A tranquil, pleasant short term forecast continues with highs in the low 80s and morning lows in the mid 50s with clear skies outside a bit of afternoon cumulus and light SE winds.
The ridging aloft will support broad subsidence, which will lead to warming temperatures each of the next few days, with mostly rain free conditions persisting.
Nice weather in store for the Bay Area this weekend as high pressure builds bringing a return of dry and mild conditions.
In these locations the highs will be closer to 70 to 75 degrees given the timing of the cold frontal passage. Tonight the winds will decrease as an area of high pressure begins to build into the west central high plains.
This AM satellite is indicating a generally clear sky across C AL as we remain under the influence of both surface ridging and ridging aloft. Surface ridging across AL into the Carolinas will continue to weaken through the short term and shift EWD. The upper ridge will be weakening as well as an upper low moves NE out of the Rockies toward the Dakotas and then toward Ontario through Sunday. This will pinch the SE US/Gulf of Mexico into E Conus ridge, weaken it, and send it EWD.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: This weekend: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an omega-like pattern over the CONUS with upper level troughs over the western CONUS and the New England states and the ridge over the central CONUS. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend along with a slow increase in moisture. Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s Saturday and Sunday while morning lows range from the upper 50s east to the lower 60s central and west.
225 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A warm front will slowly push eastward out of the Ohio Valley and through the Commonwealth of PA between tonight and Sunday. The warm front will bisect PA Sat afternoon, resulting in warm temperatures in the west and cool temperatures in the east. The front will nudge to the east on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expanding farther eastward.
/Issued 925 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue across the CWA overnight. /Issued 257 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ A tranquil, pleasant short term forecast continues with highs in the low 80s and morning lows in the mid 50s with clear skies outside a bit of afternoon cumulus and light SE winds.
Not much has changed synoptically as upper level ridging continues to reinforce over the area through the weekend. Forecast highs will be warm in the lower to middle 80's Saturday and Sunday, with morning lows starting in the upper 50's to lower 60's.
By 03z isolated storms are possible along/east of the CO/KS border as a cold front starts to move through. a 545dam upper low pressure center over western Nebraska in the morning is expected to lift northeast into South Dakota by the end of the day then into southeast North Dakota overnight. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower to upper 60s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s to middle 70s elsewhere. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s to lower 40s. High temperatures will be cooler with middle 50s to upper 60s expected.
Ongoing rain showers and high-elevation snow showers should continue to slowly diminish overnight and become increasingly confined to the highlands and mountains along the Wyoming border per the new HREF ensemble suite. Persistent precipitation remains over East Idaho this afternoon with upper low centered over southern Utah per satellite imagery.
1242 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A warm front will support periodic light rain mainly north of Pittsburgh tonight through early Saturday, with otherwise dry and milder conditions prevailing into Sunday.
Also, over the northeast CWA will have a wind advisory in effect for especially the Coteau where the higher elevations will see some pretty good gusts. Given the strong winds, any snowfall lingering will cause visibility issues given the strong winds anticipated on the back side of the low. Precip looks to be out of the region by Sunday afternoon or evening as the low continues to move away from the region.
Dakota with storms firing along its associated very lengthy dry line and warm front. The surface warm front lifts north across northern lower through rest of the morning, with much warmer conditions behind it. Within the warm sector will be higher thetaE air, with temperatures in the low 70s across much of northern lower (cooler near lake Huron where onshore flow may persist). Showers move off to the northeast by the early afternoon, with breaks in the clouds south of the bridge. We spend much of the remainder of the day into the night dry, until moisture increases and a slight chance of showers in the far west ahead of the cold front.
Windy conditions continue on Sunday and a cold front will bring showers and storms to the area late in the day.
High pressure remains over the Southeast this morning with clear skies and enough southerly winds to keep us mostly clear of any fog. Otherwise, today will be another warm, sunny day with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. As the high pressure circulation continue to shifts eastward, an increase in the pressure gradient across our area will help to ramp up southerly winds later this morning, with wind gusts around 15-25 mph by this afternoon. As this system pushes the upper- level ridge that has been in place off to the east, we will see a cold front start to approach on Sunday. Expect a second day of breezy southerly winds and warm temperatures getting up into the low-to-mid 80s.
Discussion: Strong warm air advection is ongoing across the region out ahead of a cold front that is moving across western Kansas. The best potential for severe weather will come this evening along the cold front.
The strong upper level trough that lead to severe storms over western Kansas and the Western Great Plains yesterday will progress northeastward into the Northern Plains. Confidence is higher in storms initiating once the cold front overtakes the dryline somewhere along or east of I-135.
1 showing a steady couple degree warm up through the weekend as high pressure tries to nose in.
Fair skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure continues over the area. 13 Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 60 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 58 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 59 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 82 53 82 / 10 0 0 0 20.
351 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere over the southeast CONUS will dominate our weather through Sunday, resulting in warm and dry conditions. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be channeled around the periphery of the ridging, leading to precip potential from the western Gulf Coast northward to a cold frontal boundary crossing the Midwest.
Moisture will continue to increase over the area, although dry conditions are expected to prevail as mid- level ridging remains parked over the state. Low temperatures will warm into the low 60s.
As we move deeper into this event, things really pick up tomorrow morning as we have rain, freezing rain, ice pellets/sleet, snow (up to 2" an hour at times) all in the forecast. As the upper level low moves NNE-ward, winds will increase and by daylight Saturday, gusts will start hitting 35 mph and by noon up to 50 mph. Best advice: *Stay home once freezing rain hits and/or snow starts accumulating. Rain will change over to freezing rain or mixed precipitation around midnight and become all snow by tomorrow morning.
A powerful low pressure system will exit to our northeast tonight. Gusty winds will subside after sunset as high pressure arrives. For your weekend, expect mostly sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures in the 80s across the lower elevations.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will become centered over the Carolinas, but will continue to dominate our weather, keeping us dry and our temps nearly 10 degrees above normal this weekend.
Winds were light and variable across most of the state, however gusty S winds were felt over the higher terrain of the Ozark and Ouachita Mtns. Today, surface PGF will tighten between high pressure E of AR and low pressure NW of AR. This will result in Srly winds gusting 20- 30 mph, possibly even higher over the higher terrain. On Sunday, vigorous upper level troughing over the Cntrl CONUS will take on a increasingly negative tilt as it ejects to the NE into the Nrn MS Valley region. At the surface, low pressure should located N of the Great Lakes region with a surface cold front extending back to the SW into portions of NW AR and OK.
228 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Upper high positioned over the Carolina coast this morning. Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Thanks to sunshine and southerly winds gusting as high as 35 to 40mph, afternoon high temperatures will soar into the lower to middle 80s. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a slowly approaching cold front, southerly winds will increase to 20-25mph today. With partly to mostly sunny skies and strong WAA continuing, afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. reaching the lower to middle 80s. Cold front will push into central Illinois on Sunday, triggering showers and thunderstorms.