Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging aloft keeps 925 to 850 hPa temperatures anomalously warm. An added fire weather hazard worth mentioning is a wind shift that will occur as a strong cold front pushes through during the late afternoon and evening. As the aforementioned front moves through, there is a slight chance of light rain showers during the evening; however, several thousand feet of dry air in the low levels is likely to evaporate a majority of precipitation before it reaches the ground, leading to mostly virga. After midnight, temperatures could cool enough for a few flurries along the higher terrain of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota.
Skies will clear out with cooler temperatures today and Tuesday.
Look for strong and gusty winds accompanying a passing cold front moving across the Great Basin today. Temperatures will be much cooler Monday and Tuesday.
Gusty west to northwest winds will continue across the Northern Rockies today in the wake of the strong pacific cold front (which has now crossed into central and southwest Montana). Strong winds continue across southwest Montana and across Lemhi County, where the cold front recently passed through. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Lower Clark Fork region, as these bands will continue to bring periodic moderate to heavy snowfall to the I-90 corridor west of Missoula to Lookout Pass. Little to any valley snowfall accumulations are expected this afternoon as temperatures climb above freezing.
651 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Dry weather is expected today behind a cold front moving well offshore.
704 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Clearing of the high clouds has progressed northward overnight with high clouds north of Hwy 2 and clear south. South winds will pick up thru the morning out ahead of an approaching cold front. 850 mb cold front arrives about 2 hours after sfc front passes through and it is with this 850 mb front where winds will ramp up as mixing will increase and possibly reach 725/750 mb starting mid afternoon in the DVL basin and spreading east. Heading into mid-week, the weather will quiet down as a ridge begins to build into the northern plains. 850mb Temperatures will be on the rise after the cold front earlier this week, as will the surface temperatures. The ridge will hold strong in the upper levels for the foreseeable future.
Sunny skies, warm temperatures, and gusty winds Monday in advance of an approaching dry cold front that will cool temperatures through the middle of the week. High pressure will build once again, bringing seasonally warm conditions by the end of the week and to start the weekend.
414 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Another nice day is in store for the Mid South as high pressure moves through the region.
A weak cold front has moved and is stalling over the area. The combination of increased Atlantic moisture convergence associated with the trough, and a mixture of sea/lake breezes will result in scattered showers and possibly even a storm or two across interior Palm Beach county and the Alligator Alley corridor today. Persistent mid-upper ridging should gradually weaken across the eastern Gulf and Bahamas in response to a sharpening trough progressing from the central CONUS to the Eastern Seaboard late in the period.
Large scale upper trough will deepen over the the Rockies and Great Basin regions today.
537 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Based on this morning's observations across the central and northern Rocky Mountains Region and the state of Wyoming, surface cold front is just starting to push into northwest Wyoming with winds shifting into the north around Yellowstone NP. Do not expect widespread strong winds, but this is typically a favorable pattern for the Cheyenne Ridge with strong northwest winds and strong subsidence behind the front.
Winds are turning southerly across the area early this morning as a high pressure center moves through the lower Mississippi Valley. The southerly winds will rapidly increase today as the pressure gradient tightens up due to a low pressure system that will deepen over the central plains. Additionally, efficient mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere will allow for lower dewpoints at the surface, resulting in afternoon relative humidity values of 20-30 percent across the CWA. A cold front will move through the area from northwest to southeast on Tuesday, with a delay in moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico on the back side of the departing high pressure.
1043 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure is in control this morning and will keep the weather dry today. A cold front associated with the upper trough will be approaching from the northwest on Tuesday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of the front. Nearly full sun both days will allow for strong heating, although high clouds will begin to make a showing with the approaching upper trough. Night time temperature should show significant ridge/valley differences due to warm air advection keeping ridges mixed, while good radiating conditions allow valleys to decouple.
humidity values are expected to recover from south to north as low level moisture is transported back into the region with the approaching wave and a cold front progged to move into the CWA Tuesday. The cold front is progged to move into Northeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning and make its way east southeast through the CWA. Behind the cold front. rain and isolated thunderstorm chances become possible during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the main upper level trof axis pushing into the region.
1044 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Radar imagery and recent observations show cold front has moved just south of Orlando this morning, and is forecast to stall across central Florida this afternoon. Highs along the coast north of the front toward Volusia and northern Brevard counties are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s, while farther south, max temps will reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Cigs near to north of the cold front that has now pushed south of KMCO are mostly MVFR this morning, with still some localized IFR cigs being reported.
Question is how much warmer will it be and how much impact with the high clouds be. The other main weather concern is fire weather related associated with an upper level trof passing by to our north on Tuesday thus bringing near critical fire weather conditions to area east and southeast of Tucson Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 414 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ Another nice day is in store for the Mid South as high pressure moves through the region.
Otherwise, aloft we remain on the eastern edge of a flattened ridge that extends from the eastern Pacific and across Mexico. With that said, cirrus and other cloud debris associated from this front is still streaming across the area thanks to the westerly flow aloft from the flated ridge.
/issued 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under a dirty broad ridge in between storm systems, allowing for a pleasant couple of days before the next trough arrives. Thicknesses will increase today, allowing temperatures to rebound above normal as return flow strengthens in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. Tuesday, the aforementioned trough will dig to the Four Corners, and develop a modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. A cold front is expected to slow/stall just to the north due to diurnal heating, allowing most locations to reach afternoon highs in the 80s or better. The cold front will surge south with the abeyance of peak heating, and another watch has been issued for gap winds through Guadalupe Pass.
High pressure has begun building in behind the cold front that passed over the local area. However, the cold front that passed to our southeast will eventually stall over the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, then advance northward as a warm front Monday evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to traverse the upper Mississippi Valley down through the ArkLaTex region by late afternoon/early evening Tuesday. However, rain chances will begin to increase over the open Gulf waters come this afternoon as the stalled front lifts north as a warm front. As moisture increases with the approach of the warm front, lows will be a bit warmer Monday night.
857 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Dry weather is expected today behind a cold front moving well offshore.
High pressure will continue to erode lingering stratocu southwest to northeast today, allowing for greater insolation. In response to a deepening trough over the central U. Tuesday, high pressure will shift with developing southwest flow aloft and increase warm, moist advection into the region.
637 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build across the region today, and offshore tonight into Tuesday providing dry weather.
Daytime highs should warm into the 70s this afternoon cooling into the lower 60s tonight. With the exception of temperatures in the mid 70s along the immediate coast, temperatures on Tuesday should warm into the 80s inland, with temperatures in the lower 90s across the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
719 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley and yield dry weather for today and Tuesday.
1030 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley and yield dry weather for today and Tuesday.
440 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Today and tonight: Dry through the period with slightly cooler than normal temperatures today and near normal temperatures tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1026mb high centered over the Tennessee valley that was ridging back to the southwest just to the west of our CWA. Under full insolation today but continued weak CAA temperatures will top out from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Under weak return flow tonight and some high cloud return by morning, low temperatures will bottom out warmer than this morning and range from the mid 40s northeast to the mid 50s southwest which is a couple degrees warmer than normal.
Daytime highs should warm into the 70s this afternoon cooling into the lower 60s tonight. With the exception of temperatures in the mid 70s along the immediate coast, temperatures on Tuesday should warm into the 80s inland, with east temperatures in the lower 90s across the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
Meanwhile, to our northwest, a strong cold front has pushed through western South Dakota into northern Nebraska, producing north/northwesterly wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH along the way. Given the "ground truth" of high winds upstream, we went ahead and expanded the High Wind Warning by 1-2 counties. Temperatures will also be significantly cooler, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees most places.
The very strong cold front that passed through our CWA during the night was already near the ID/WY border as of 9 AM MDT. The high wind warning there remains in effect for now, but we will probably downgrade it to advisory around 10-11 AM.
Will leave the wind headlines the same for now (other than adding Barnes County into the high wind warning). There is a potential tonight for some 50+ knot wind gusts to affect a few spots to the east of the high wind warned area.
Sunny skies, warm temperatures, and gusty winds Monday in advance of an approaching dry cold front that will cool temperatures through the middle of the week. High pressure will build once again, bringing seasonally warm conditions by the end of the week and to start the weekend. A trough of low pressure moving through the Great Basin has already increased the winds speeds aloft (12Z KFGZ sounding has 35kts at around 680 mb) and at the surface.
Winds will be southerly as warm air advects into Ohio Valley ahead of an approaching cold front that will be located from WI down into MO tomorrow morning. Afternoon highs ahead of the cold front will warm into the low/mid 70s. A large upper level trough will be in place over the central US and Canada Tue night, with the 500 mb trough extending south over the Upper Midwest and Plains. Moisture transport is briefly quite strong Tue evening into early Wed ahead of the cold front.
Forecast Summary: A windy and warm day today will be followed by a strong cold front and cooler temperatures through mid week.
137 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure is in control this morning and will keep the weather dry today. A cold front associated with the upper trough will be approaching from the northwest on Tuesday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of the front. Nearly full sun both days will allow for strong heating, although high clouds will begin to make a showing with the approaching upper trough. Night time temperature should show significant ridge/valley differences due to warm air advection keeping ridges mixed, while good radiating conditions allow valleys to decouple.
Dry conditions will continue tonight through most of Tuesday as high pressure begins to move off to the east. Developing south winds will bring warmer temps for Tuesday with highs in the 70s. A cold front will approach Middle Tennessee from the west tomorrow afternoon while pulling in a swath of Gulf moisture.
High pressure has begun building in behind the cold front that passed over the local area yesterday. This cold front will remain stalled over the central Gulf of Mexico through this evening then advance northward as a warm front late tonight into Tuesday, making its way to just south of the northern Gulf coast by late Tuesday morning and then remain nearly stationary over the area through the remainder of the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to traverse the upper Mississippi Valley down through the ArkLaTex region by late afternoon/early evening Tuesday.
Ahead of this upper impulse, Lee troughing continues to deepen which has resulted in a very strong low level jet with VAD wind profile from KICT showing 55kt by 3,000ft. Cold front is expected to surge through the forecast area tonight, moving through KICT on hour or two before sunrise. We are looking for highs in the 70s area wide by Sat with even warmer temps for Sun. Finally, a strong cold front will slice southeast across the region tonight, with strong and gusty northwest winds in its wake, especially across central Kansas. For any fires that are not able to be contained by early this evening, a cold front is expected to move through central KS after midnight, flipping winds around to the north.
431 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 The afternoon surface analysis shows a high pressure remains in place across the Ohio Valley. These clear skies will remain in the place tonight and this could lead to some additional frost and near freezing temperatures tonight in the sheltered eastern valleys. High pressure will pull east Tuesday and return flow will lead to a beautiful day, with highs in the lower 70s. Tuesday night, a vigorous upper level trough will push into the Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will bring the front now located in the Gulf of Mexico back northward as a warm front. This happens as a cold front pushes toward the Ohio Valley.
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will move offshore tonight through Tuesday.
1159 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Dry weather is expected today behind a cold front moving well offshore.
A cold front will move across the region late in the day Tuesday.
347 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 A cold front is stalled across northern and central Florida this afternoon, as we remain under a somewhat nebulous wind regime. Although the front is stalled to our north, we remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge that expands from the extreme eastern Pacific and across the entire Gulf of Mexico.
so will let the highlight continue thru the afternoon. Satellite imagery shows dynamic trof moving from eastern MT into ND and a trowal on its back side over north central MT. We will see rising heights on Tuesday as trof departs to our east. Upper ridging to weak zonal flow aloft will bring about downslope flow that will quickly raise temperatures into the 70s for the weekend, and easily look to be the warmest days of th year so far.
1008 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 50s. /issued 414 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ Another nice day is in store for the Mid South as high pressure moves through the region.
As an upper level wave moves across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, a cold front will approach and make passage across our region Tuesday evening and overnight.
Strong cold front later this evening. A strong cold front was about 50 miles north of Cheyenne WY. For now went with highest pops over the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak Region mainly during the morning hours tomorrow. With temps below freezing it will be snow, and cannot rule out the roads becoming icy as temps will drop quickly after the front goes by. Temps will likely not get above freezing over N El Paso, with 30s and 40s over the rest of the plains. With upslope developing and the trough hanging back, we may see some light precip along the mtns/plains interface tomorrow, and have ~30- 40 POPS over this region through the day tomorrow.
341 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Cooler and windy conditions on Tuesday, with moderating temperatures late in the week and continued dry weather highlight the forecast. A cold front across eastern North Dakota will occlude with a warm from across western Minnesota as they propagate across the Northland this evening, with a secondary cold front propagating through Tuesday. Westerly winds will increase tonight into Tuesday in steep low level lapse rates and cold air advection behind the series of cold fronts with 35-45kts at the top of the mixed layer.
A strong cold front will cross the region today, with a cool airmass remaining in place through Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region by midweek and remain in place heading into the upcoming weekend, resulting in a substantial warming trend. A strong but largely dry cold front continues to push southeastward across northern Utah. The associated upper level trough is already shifting eastward into the High Plains, with the bulk of any significant forcing for precipitation shifting east of the region. A few gusts over 60 mph have been observed near the Utah/Idaho border in normally windy locations, with most gusts outside these prone areas peaking in the low 50s.
230 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Intense cyclone passing across southern Canada has aided a broad fetch of strong winds through the Plains and these winds will only gradually subside this evening. The system cold front will move into NE OK tomorrow morning and clear NW AR and SE OK by late evening or early morning hours on Wed.
South-Central Texas will be positioned at the base of a mid-level trough by the end of the short-term period and low level southerly flow increasing throughout Tuesday afternoon. Most of the region will see lows in the low 50s to low 60s.
Areas east of the front peaked as high as the lower 80s. High pressure builds in at the sfc in central SD Tuesday night.
1244 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure through Tuesday. Strong midweek cold front followed by a sharp cold spell to end the work week. A high pressure system will provide dry weather through Tuesday. This setup brings light southerly flow, gradually increasing into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front approaches from the west, southerly flow will increase moisture with PWATs increasing to 1.
Much cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Strong upper ridging will build over the western/central states mid to late week, resulting in dry conditions and a warming trend through the weekend.
138 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley and yield dry weather for today and Tuesday.
411 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure building into the region will bring clearing skies and an end to windy conditions tonight.
903 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Morning update: First cold front is through the state this morning with strong wind gust and showers. RAE Early morning discussion: A strong cold front will blow through the forecast area early this morning and will move to the east by sunrise or shortly after. Upper low moves along the MT/Canada border today which will bring a secondary cold front through NE Montana in the late morning and early afternoon. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the upper low will bring some additional snow along the Canadian Border this afternoon that will continue into part of tonight in some areas. Will add mention of snow to the High Wind Warning and not issue any winter weather highlights for now. The low moves to the east overnight diminishing the snow.
A tight pressure gradient and deep mixing has allowed for gusty southerly winds to develop and persist today, while temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 70s, relative humidity values have fallen between 20-30 percent. Wind speeds will further decrease with the approach of a cold front projected to move through between midnight and mid-morning Tuesday. A much cooler day is also expected on Tuesday behind the front upon CAA and increased cloud cover, with highs in the 50s.
310 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 A strong cold front will race southward across the region tonight with northerly winds spiking up.
915 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Secondary cold front is continuing south through N-central MT this morning with a quick burst of snow and low visibility as winds shift to the N/NW with gusts to around 50 mph.
Temperatures have surged into the lower 80s across far western MN, which will expand eastward to possibly the Litchfield and Redwood Falls areas by late this afternoon. The cold front will move east this evening, shifting winds west.
1130 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build across the region today, and offshore tonight into Tuesday providing dry weather.
At the surface a low was centered over far southern Manitoba, with a cold front draped across the far eastern Dakotas. Strong pressure rises along and behind the cold front were responsible for wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range this afternoon across much of western North Dakota. The upper level pattern for the remainder of the week transitions to a long wave ridge across the western and central CONUS, with more zonal flow over the Northern Plains. Warmer and dry conditions arrive with this pattern, with widespread highs in the 60s and 70s likely. A cold front has pushed through the region with gusty westerly/northwesterly winds in its wake.
249 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Upper trough comes down out of the NW today and develops into a broad trough from Canada to NM Tuesday.
330 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will slide offshore tonight and Tuesday.
Front pushes through much of the forecast area overnight with a cooler airmass spreading across the state for Tuesday. Winds will be brisk on Tuesday with temperatures 20 to 25 degrees cooler than today.
/issued 1008 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 50s. /issued 414 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ Another nice day is in store for the Mid South as high pressure moves through the region.
Ensuing increase in depth and magnitude of southwest flow then offers a more robust window of warm air advection heading into Tuesday - 925 mb temperatures by Tuesday afternoon a solid 10 degrees warmer than readings noted today. The high degree of insolation potential within a moderately mixed environment lends to well above normal temperatures - highs mid 60s to lower 70s. Cold frontal boundary marking the lead edge of inbound stronger height falls set to govern late week conditions will migrate across southeast Michigan Tuesday night.
High pressure slides east today, and return flow southerlies develop. Highs will be seasonally mild in the lower to middle 60s. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, and with the high to the east, the gradient tightens/resulting in a breezy day. which helps warm temps toward/into the lower 70s for highs. The surface tongue of dew points struggles into the lower 50s this far north, and may be an inhibitor regarding sustained heavy rains.