Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM ABOUT PEORIA-LINCOLN EASTWARD IN THE LOWER CLOUDS. WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT AND CONCENTRATED THE LOWER READINGS ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR. WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER 00Z JULY 9 GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE. THIS MEANS THE ONCE DRY FORECAST WILL NOW BE REPLACED BY A MORE UNSETTLED SCENARIO WHERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 644 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WAS BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
232 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUING THIS PERIOD.
LOOK FOR A BRIEF RESPITE TODAY FROM THE WET WEATHER WITH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS.
A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18 TO 03Z. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN SAT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURES BEING THE CLOSED LOW OVER TX AND A SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE NWD PROGRESSION OF PCPN DUE TO THE OVERALL SLOWER SPEED OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOW AND DRY AMBIENT COLUMN OVER IOWA. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH READINGS IN THE MID-UPR 50S SOUTH /DUE TO SHOWERS/ TO THE MID 60S NORTH. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
/ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ Upper low that has brought several days of rain chances to the area continues to slowly moving northward and is currently located over south central TX.
EAST WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE FAR NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A UPPER LOW SYSTEM WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING MUCH SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AND FINALLY PROGS ARE FOCUSING THE PCPN ALONG A BROAD TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. COOLER READINGS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER READINGS ALONG THE LAKE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER TEXAS WILL GET CAUGHT UP THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP FOR TEMPS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING THINGS COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE.
A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AXIS WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL. HRRR INITIALED WELL AND INDICATED THE LOW BANK DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS A FEW SHOWERS WERE POPPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE CAPE AND INLAND EAST OF TBW.
12Z GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS TREND WHICH WILL BRING A BIT STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY AT 15Z. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WYOMING. SURFACE TROF/WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE TROF/COOL FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
Moist southwest flow will continue today above the cooler air moving into the northern Rockies, keeping plenty of clouds and showers in the area through the weekend, especially over the mountains.
1017 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
654 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
329 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH DECREASING WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY ENDING THIS MORNING.
A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE PROGS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE LESS PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN SAT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
623 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND INTO ARKANSAS BY TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY. WE WILL COME INTO AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ OUR PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.
440 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FLOODING RAINS. EXPECT BANDS OF CONVECTION TO SPIRAL AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS LOW. PATCHY FOG INCREASING AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. AS UPPER LOW RETREATS TO NE SAT NIGHT.
458 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48. WITH A UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. A STRONGER NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH EXTENDED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST U. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS PROGS THE AZ UPPER LOW TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL STILL YIELD MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES FOR TODAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED SOME SPOTS TO DEVELOP SOME VERY PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 C RANGE WILL BE OFFSET BY THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE HIGH CLOUDS. SO KEPT MANY SPOTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
418 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
507 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS CENTER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR AUSTIN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE TOWARDS EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO ARKANSAS AND THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE FOCUS BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS THIS WEEK/S UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER ONE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN ARIZONA MOVES INTO ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
Gusty conditions are expected at KABI, and to a lesser extent at KSJT, as the low-level jet intensifies after 03z. Abundant moisture remains in place this morning, with dewpoints still in the lower 50s and precipitable water near 0. Forcing for ascent will shift to the east this morning and the lower and middle troposphere will quickly dry out, bringing precipitation chances to an end. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s across the southwest half of the CWA, likely remaining in the upper 60s across the Big Country. Southerly winds will increase overnight in response to surface pressure falls in the Panhandle, veering to the southwest and west as a Pacific cold front marches across the CWA around daybreak.
A DEEP SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE UPPER LOW (TROF) WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.
326 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48. WITH A UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. A STRONGER NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH EXTENDED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST U. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS PROGS THE AZ UPPER LOW TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL STILL YIELD MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA FROM THE SPINNING UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SE TX. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S AT FREEPORT IL TO THE MID 40S AT FORT MADISON IA. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RAIN ADVANCING NORTHWARD AS THERE IS AN AWFUL LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME. THE UPPER LOW IN SE TX CONTINUES TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH (THICKER CLOUDS) TO THE LOWER 60S FAR NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED AS SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES IN COMBINATION WITH HIGHER PWAT'S OF OVER AN INCH WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS OVER ALL THE CWA.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL OPEN UP TODAY AND FINALLY SWING NORTH. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND PLACE MIDDLE TN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING.
423 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION BY 13/00Z. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS COMPLETELY OUT THIS EVENING.
914 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE LOCAL WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ACCOMPANYING THE WARMER AIR WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TAX FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS JUST HOW QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST THIS CYCLONE ADVANCES IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS.
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW PUSHES EAST INTO NORTHERN TX LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE MET TEMPS APPEAR TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE THREE SHORT TERM MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND THE ECMWF BOTH TRENDING MUCH WARMER VERSUS THE NAM.
THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING AS THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST SECTIONS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN FOR SUNDAY BUT A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) The upper low was located in south central TX early this morning and meandering northward. Well in advance of the low, a weak disturbance aloft extended from southeast KS into extreme southern MO. Clouds will keep temperatures suppressed and highs will cooler than yesterday for most locations.
607 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE COAST.
Thereafter, the thinking regarding precip today remains the same with the best chances occurring along the warm front this afternoon. A deep upper trough spinning over TX this morning will begin to open up and lift to the northeast today. It will continue across the lower Ohio Valley through Sunday. Ahead of this main trough, a weak disturbance moving north early this morning will bring a few showers to the region, mainly west of I-65. In addition, a warm front will lift north across the region today. Many hi-res models show a band of showers and a few thunderstorms developing this afternoon along the I-64 corridor along the warm front. Temperatures will be tricky today as they will depend on how far north the warm front makes it and how much rain develops.
KCRP RADAR DID SHOW A FEW SPRINKLES WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE LOW BUT EVEN THESE WERE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WL INCREASE TNT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA LATER TNT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TNT AT LEAST 5-8 DEGS WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS COMPLETELY OUT THIS EVENING.
424 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH MRMS RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER C TX WHERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW OF COLLEGE STATION APPROACHING BRENHAM. THE CENTER OF THE LOW MAY BE JUST A TOUCH WEST OF THE CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS VERY LITTLE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION REACHING THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SW WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE S PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
COOLER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING ACROSS ARIZONA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SPELL COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR YOUR SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT THIS TIME WITH COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THIN SWATH OF CLOUDS STRETCHING SW FROM RIM COUNTRY TO NEAR NOGALES. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TODAY. VALID THRU 13/18Z COLD FRONT FROM KSOW-KTUS-KOLS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SE AZ TODAY AND BRING BRIEF SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES OF 6-10K FT AND PARTIAL MT TOP OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES.
MODELS REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CARRYING THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTER TO NORTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z. THE NAM INDICATED GOOD QG FORCING NORTH OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING IN CONCERT WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO END WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE DIVIDE.
This piece of upper level energy spiraling ahead of the main upper level low pressure which is still over Texas will move out of the area later this morning. The main core of the upper level low will move northeast tonight across the mid Mississippi Valley region.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA BY MID-EVENING. AS THE LOW EXITS. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE NORTH PORTION OF A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE LEADING TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET TONIGHT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS FINALLY GETS SHUNTED NORTHEAST TODAY AS A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL UPPER LOW SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. 20 SOUTH TX UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM UP AND DOWN THE CNTL. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON.
Late this afternoon into this evening, scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will approach ECP and DHN with MVFR ceilings returning ahead of an approaching cold front. Water vapor imagery continues to show a slow moving upper low centered across south-central Texas with a large area of convection across the central Gulf. Another upper trough is seen moving eastward through the southwest states which will act to kick the stationary upper low over Texas eastward starting today.
533 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 A closed upper low over Texas early this morning is about to start moving rapidly northeastward toward the Midwest today as a strong progressive trough pushes rapidly eastward through the southwest U. Temperatures expected to reach the low 60s with light east winds around 5 to 8 mph. Have increasing chances of showers spreading nne across central IL during tonight into Sunday as upper level low over central Texas moves into the mid MS river valley.
MIDLVL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW LOCATED NEAR BASTROP WL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TX THROUGH THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTN AS THE CLOSED LOW QUICKLY ACCELERATES TWDS EAST TX AND NRN LOUISIANA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
628 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW THATS BEEN SPINNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO FINALLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
354 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS. STRONG SURFACE GRADIENTS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVED EAST OF THE SIERRA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LEADING COLD CORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST AND LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY TOWARDS PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING COLD FRONT OVER NCAL.
557 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER TX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WHILE EJECTING NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. EXPECT A CONTINUED NWD EXPANSION OF THE EVOLVING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAKOTAS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NERN NEB BY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THRU THE TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT. /ISSUED 423 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.
AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 10 TO 50 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE RETAINED FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LOWER KEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS IN PLACE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND IS RIDGING BACK OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WITH THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER EAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERLAYING THIS WILL BE THE LARGER SCALE DEFORMATION AXIS AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF US. PLACES THAT GET HIT A COUPLE OF TIMES AND GET A LITTLE OROGRAPHIC SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH COULD GET 4 INCHES. DRIER AND COOLER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE.