Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Upper ridging dominating wx pattern thru tonight with no convection anywhere near cwa this aftn and aftn temps agina in the lower to middle 90's. Lapse rates will steepen by aftn with daytime heating within the weakening ridge and colder air aloft with upper trough. Temps will be a few degrees cooler, although areas that do not see convection until late aftn may still reach lower to middle 90s.
South of the front, temperatures will warm into the lower 90s, with upper 80s confined to areas north of Interstate 20. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s.
328 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Occasional showers into Thursday morning - Becoming blustery and cooler for Thursday afternoon - Frost possible along Route 10 Thursday night - High waves on Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon and night may lead to hazardous boating conditions The main challenges deal with the potential for more rain tonight and the risk for frost Thursday night. The next wave of low pressure moves in from the southwest tonight and deepens over far Southern Lower Michigan Thursday morning. The low pressure system will pull away from the CWA later Thursday morning into the afternoon.
1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 A narrow band of low to mid-level moisture continues to advect northeastward through northwest Missouri to eastern Iowa ahead of a southward propagating cold front. Dew points will rise into the lower 70s south of the front, while deep layer moisture contributions from the eastern Pacific will maintain PWAT values near 2 inches. Lapse rates will be hindered by cloud cover, but ample moisture in the lower levels will help to build moderate instability within a highly sheared environment given persistent strong southwest flow aloft.
The low pressure system continues to push over the Rockies and into the northern plains, while broad high pressure persists over the southeastern CONUS. Expect another cool and dreary day today: as the low transitions northeastward through northern plains, precipitation and fog will continue. As high pressure moves into the region tonight, skies will clear, and temperatures will fall below freezing most places. Have issued a Freeze Watch for northeastern WY and western SD; south central SD should stay above freezing. Beneath weak ridging and southwest flow, warmer and drier conditions will end the workweek.
Fog in the central Idaho valleys including McCall will dissipate by noon, leaving today sunny in all areas except eastern-most mountains closest to the departing upper low, which is already in Wyoming. Upper ridge in our area today will shift east tonight as the next trough from the Gulf of Alaska comes onshore in WA and OR.
Through the short term a strong upper level ridge will remain centered across the Southeast U. There is a weakness beneath the ridge that will move west into South Texas Thursday and Thursday night, and when combined with marginal moisture levels will allow for low chances for isolated/stray showers and thunderstorms, with the better chances remaining south of the CWA.
430 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure will continue to weaken this afternoon and tonight as an area of low pressure slowly moves west northwestward though the Carribean Sea. Low temperatures across the region tonight will range from the lower 70s across the northwestern interior sections to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas. High pressure should continue to weaken over the southeastern U. while a weak low pressure system in the Caribbean Sea progresses WNW into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Surface observations show temperatures across southwest Nebraska in the lower 50s, with the cloud cover expected to continue through the afternoon went ahead and lowered afternoon high temperatures across this area by a few degrees. At the surface, high pressure will settle in across northern Nebraska. Will keep Boyd, Holt, and Wheeler counties out of the Frost Advisory at this time as lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly warmer. Temperatures will rebound nicely on Thursday as ridging aloft begins to move into the area from the southwest. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will begin moving into the Pacific northwest late in the day Thursday.
A cold front stretched from near South Bend Indiana to Quincy Illinois to Kansas City. Temperatures were much cooler than they were 24 hours ago with current temperatures ranging from 77 degrees at Macomb to 56 degrees at Dubuque. A 500 HPA trough will lift into southwestern Ontario this evening as another wave rides along the frontal boundary to our south. High pressure will build into the area on Thursday pushing the front farther south.
Clouds will begin to clear by Thursday afternoon, but with the cool Canadian air mass in place, afternoon temperatures will be confined to the low to mid 50s.
333 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Another unseasonably hot/humid afternoon, but relief from the heat is finally on the way with the passage of next cold front. Cold front is forecast to move into the MLC/FYV area by 12Z Thursday, pushing south towards the Red River by mid afternoon.
Temperatures are running around 1 degree warmer than this time Yesterday. The region remains under a large ridge of high pressure which covers most of the eastern U.
220 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Cold front appears to be just west of Wichita Kansas as of 19z, with temperatures in the 50s over western Kansas and ahead of the front in the upper 80s. Upper level wave was over the northern Rockies and shifting east into the plains, with upper ridge still over the southeast U. The main focus will be with this front as it pushes through the area late tonight into Thursday, the potential of rain associated with it, and the cooler temperatures behind the front. Rainfall totals do not look overly impressive with the higher area receiving around a quarter of an inch.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 70s areawide. A weak disturbance in the rotation around the southside of the upper ridge will help to kick off some storm/shower activity in the southern portions of the region.
Inverted trough and 850 mb low will then move east northeast through the region overnight into early Thursday morning, bringing another round of showers. High pressure moving east into the region Thursday night will bring clearing skies and cool temperatures.
Slightly better coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow as some weak disturbances continue to propagate around the upper-level ridge helping to provide some additional lift. Otherwise, western periphery of the dominate ridge that has brought continued summertime wx will gradually erode and allow the trof near the Yucatan to move toward the coast of Mexico and south Tx later in the week. Deeper moisture will follow, but considering the llvl easterly flow in place the bulk of it and the higher rain chances should remain mostly offshore.
Temperatures are running within a degree or so of values at this same time yesterday so highs in the lower 90s most spots seems reasonable. Cold front moves through most terminals before the end of the forecast period however bulk of convection will be confined to nearer KBVO terminal. /Issued 421 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/ Latest early morning surface analysis indicates that cold front extends from northwest Missouri through central Kansas and then into southeast Colorado. It could be quite chilly over northwest parts of our forecast area, with highs not climbing much from morning lows in the low to mid 60s.
The good news is our first Fall cold front is expected to arrive tomorrow. As a result abundant sunshine will result in seasonably warm temperatures again, only slightly cooler than today.
A weak cold front will move into the area towards the end of the TAF period which will shift winds to the east and bring lower CIGS. The broad area of high pressure to the east will bounce the trough moving through the Rockies a little farther north than previously progged. We will still see the influence of the trough axis passing over a nearly saturated boundary layer today into early tomorrow morning.
304 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 This afternoon an upper level trough was progressing eastward slowly across the northern Rockies while a mid level ridge remained in place across the southeast states with southwesterly flow from Mexico into Wisconsin. Dew points south of the front were in the lower 70s with 50s to the north in north central Kansas. High pressure will continue to build in behind the front through Thursday as cooler and drier air moves in. Thursday will be more fall like for much of the area with highs in the low to mid 60s.
250 PM MDT Wed Oct 2 2019 A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region on Thursday, allowing for slightly warmer air to move into the region.
314 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The much advertised cold front has been making very slow progress southward this afternoon, straddling the OK/KS border. The cold front should continue pushing southward tomorrow and will likely be approaching the Red River by around noon.
230 PM MDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The persistent low pressure system responsible for last weekendâs storm finally makes an exit from the northern Rockies by this afternoon. A short-lived ridge builds over western Montana on Thursday morning, bringing yet another chance for valley fog or low clouds, but will give way to pleasant weather with temperatures just a few degrees below normal.
1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The upper trough currently located across the northern Rockies will pivot east into the Northern Plains today. Large scale ascent is apparent across the region this morning ahead of the trough. Have issued a frost advisory for areas mainly along and west of Highway 183, and a freeze watch for northwest Nebraska where below freezing temperatures are forecast.
302 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Updated at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Tonight, high pressure remains over the region. Enjoy the last night of mild temperatures as they only drop to the low 70s and upper 60s for most under clear skies. Tomorrow will transition into a great day as the end will come to the record setting heat as a cold front approaches from the northwest during the late afternoon to early evening. With the early sunshine prefrontal, highs will still reach the upper 80s in southwestern Indiana and the low to mid 90s throughout central Kentucky. Very pleasant (much cooler, drier) air will stream into the region behind Thursday's cold front.
243 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure over the region will result in above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather today and Thursday.
129 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The current upper-air pattern features a mid to upper-level low over the northern Rockies and an elongating ridge centered over the lower MS Valley.
310 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Another unseasonably hot/humid afternoon, but relief from the heat is finally on the way with the passage of next cold front.
Dry southwest flow aloft will help produce an even warmer day at most locations.
Dry conditions will persist at least across the lower deserts resulting in continued clear to mostly clear skies each day, with any precipitation chances expected to remain well east of south-central Arizona.
Tonight, cold front pushes south with stratus filling in behind it. A cold front moving southward into the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles this morning will track slowly south into the eastern and southern Panhandles later today. Highs today should rise into the upper 70s and 80s ahead of the cold front and provided some clearing occurs this afternoon allowing for afternoon heating.
In doing so, dynamic cooling which has spread across southwest North Dakota will edge farther east as the upper low migrates closer. The snow will taper off towards midnight with colder air and lows in the lower 30s across western/central ND. Transitory ridge shifts across western/central ND with warm air advection initiating.
1244 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Wave of low pressure currently passing through eastern IA/northern IL. Deep mid-level closed low and trough will bring another round of showers across the area later this afternoon into tonight. Some showers still possible Thursday morning but should shove off to the northeast with some much-needed drying as high pressure builds in from the Plains. High pressure drifts overhead Thursday night for clearing and cold conditions.
Conditions will remain at VFR for all terminals during the overnight hours until around 1200 UTC Thursday as a cold front moves into the CWA from the north. As the front nears the CWA, gradual moistening of the low-levels will cause ceilings (CIGs) to lower to MVFR across the terminals along with a subsequent wind shift. Sub-MVFR conditions will be possible Thursday morning and into the afternoon as CIGs lower due to rain associated with the cold front.
641 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Cold front appears to be just west of Wichita Kansas as of 19z, with temperatures in the 50s over western Kansas and ahead of the front in the upper 80s. Upper level wave was over the northern Rockies and shifting east into the plains, with upper ridge still over the southeast U. The main focus will be with this front as it pushes through the area late tonight into Thursday, the potential of rain associated with it, and the cooler temperatures behind the front. Rainfall totals do not look overly impressive with the higher area receiving around a quarter of an inch.
926 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Periodic rain chances should continue through Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
The low level moisture will linger longer therefore a few patches of fog and drizzle may persist longer into the evening before the surface boundary passes and the low level moisture begins to scour out.
The much anticipated cold front was positioned from the Texas Panhandle through Northwest/North Central Oklahoma just west of Osage county of Northeast Oklahoma to Southeastern Kansas and Central Missouri this evening. the cold front will continue to make its way into the CWA reaching the Interstate 44 corridor around 06z and and near a line from Eufaula to Bentonville around 12z Thursday morning. With the cold front forecast to be across East Central Oklahoma to far Northwest Arkansas by early Thursday morning. have adjusted hourly temp/dewpoint/sky/pop/wx/wind grids to account for the movement of the cold front and to account for latest trends and observations.
904 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Ridge north of the area will keep a low level onshore flow overnight, but wind speeds will continue to decrease slightly. Otherwise, most areas will remain dry with lows in the low 70s along the coast and in the upper 60s to low 70s across the interior.
340 PM MDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Synoptic Setup: A cold core trough runs from Saskatchewan into eastern Montana and is forecast to move east into the neighboring states and provinces over the next 12 hours. A brief ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across eastern Montana later in the day on Thursday bringing clearing skies and warming temperatures.
730 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Periodic rain chances should continue through Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
506 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure over the region will result in above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather through Thursday.
High pressure ridge will shift east into the Rockies tonight, with upper trough dropping south through the area Thursday. Dry conditions and some gusty southwest mountain ridge winds will be possible with this system. Cool overnight low temperatures can be expected the next couple nights with Valley low temperatures in the low to upper 40's, about around 10 degrees below normal.
1005 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure over the region will result in above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather through Thursday.
1047 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure over the region will result in above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather through Thursday.
Updated at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Tonight, high pressure remains over the region. Enjoy the last night of mild temperatures as they only drop to the low 70s and upper 60s for most under clear skies. Tomorrow will transition into a great day as the end will come to the record setting heat as a cold front approaches from the northwest during the late afternoon to early evening. With the early sunshine prefrontal, highs will still reach the upper 80s in southwestern Indiana and the low to mid 90s throughout central Kentucky. Very pleasant (much cooler, drier) air will stream into the region behind Thursday's cold front.
No major changes were needed to the ongoing forecast as highly anomalous ridging and warmth remain in control of our weather. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 70s areawide. A weak disturbance in the rotation around the southside of the upper ridge will help to kick off some storm/shower activity in the southern portions of the region.
We are still under the influence of a strong late summer season record breaking upper level high.
This afternoon an upper level trough was progressing eastward slowly across the northern Rockies while a mid level ridge remained in place across the southeast states with southwesterly flow from Mexico into Wisconsin. Dew points south of the front were in the lower 70s with 50s to the north in north central Kansas. High pressure will continue to build in behind the front through Thursday as cooler and drier air moves in. Thursday will be more fall like for much of the area with highs in the low to mid 60s.
A ridge axis aloft will move east of the area after midnight, allowing southwest flow in advance of our next upper level trough.
726 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Strong area of high pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and southwest Florida tonight and Thursday.
720 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Aviation - Occasional showers into Thursday morning - Becoming blustery and cooler for Thursday afternoon - Frost possible along Route 10 Thursday night - High waves on Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon and night may lead to hazardous boating conditions The main challenges deal with the potential for more rain tonight and the risk for frost Thursday night. The next wave of low pressure moves in from the southwest tonight and deepens over far Southern Lower Michigan Thursday morning. The low pressure system will pull away from the CWA later Thursday morning into the afternoon.
1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Currently - A ridge across the southeastern United States and a broad low pressure system in the northwestern Caribbean Sean is responsible for moderate to fresh east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. The southern fringe of the lower through mid level ridge aligned over the southeast has pulled back some. Ridging over the southeastern United States and a broad low in the northwestern Caribbean Sea will result in moderate to fresh easterly breezes across Keys waters overnight. The slow downward trend will continue as the ridge to our north weakens and sags southward and the broad Caribbean low moves off to the west.
VFR conditions areawide to begin the period will become MVFR as low clouds overspread the region following the cold frontal passage late this evening and overnight. /Issued 333 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/ Another unseasonably hot/humid afternoon, but relief from the heat is finally on the way with the passage of next cold front. Cold front is forecast to move into the MLC/FYV area by 12Z Thursday, pushing south towards the Red River by mid afternoon.
In areas where temperatures dip below freezing, it could lead to a few slick spots. Avery Synoptic Setup: A cold core trough runs from Saskatchewan into eastern Montana and is forecast to move east into the neighboring states and provinces over the next 12 hours. A brief ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across eastern Montana later in the day on Thursday bringing clearing skies and warming temperatures.
750 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure over the region will result in above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather through Thursday.
With winds going light in the low levels during the early morning hours on Thursday, we will also include a TEMPO group for IFR cigs at AUS and SAT between 11-14Z. Through the short term a strong upper level ridge will remain centered across the Southeast U. There is a weakness beneath the ridge that will move west into South Texas Thursday and Thursday night, and when combined with marginal moisture levels will allow for low chances for isolated/stray showers and thunderstorms, with the better chances remaining south of the CWA.
High temperatures will trend warmer through Thursday.
/issued 1002 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/ An upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Mid-South tonight. The good news is our first Fall cold front is expected to arrive tomorrow. As a result abundant sunshine will result in seasonably warm temperatures again, only slightly cooler than today.
Much cooler today with highs mostly in the 50s except for 60s to near 70 over southeastern and far southern portions of the forecast area.
The weather pattern still remains under the influence of a large upper level ridge which covers most of the southeast U. Today will be the last day that the ridge is in control across the region with temperatures once again expected the low to mid 90s today. A cold front which currently extends from central Illinois through southwest Missouri and into northwest Texas. Cooler air will move into the Mid-South tonight behind the front. Temperatures will somewhat cooler with lows Friday morning in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Friday will be the first day of noticeably cooler weather as high pressure will dominate most of the eastern U. Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
Thermal profiles will be a touch cooler today as Canadian high pressure builds southward, though with the anticipation of more sunshine over most areas highs will nudge up just a bit - into the lower to mid 50s. A southerly flow returns to the region on Friday as the high pressure continues to slide to the east. With the approach of an upper level trough from the Rockies, warm air advection/isentropic lift will increase over the area by later in the day into Friday night.
A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region on Thursday, allowing for slightly warmer air to move into the region.
Temps are cooler at KTRI than this time last night, but dewpoints are also lower.
132 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Aviation - Occasional showers into Thursday morning - Becoming blustery and cooler for Thursday afternoon - Frost possible along Route 10 Thursday night - High waves on Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon and night may lead to hazardous boating conditions The main challenges deal with the potential for more rain tonight and the risk for frost Thursday night. The next wave of low pressure moves in from the southwest tonight and deepens over far Southern Lower Michigan Thursday morning. The low pressure system will pull away from the CWA later Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Temperatures out the door will be in the lower 50s for most, and down to the mid 40s across northwest Missouri. Lingering light rain will continue to taper off through the early morning as the cold front pushes south. Eventually this will give way to mid-level ridging late this afternoon and early evening, with clearing conditions expected into the late evening and overnight.
1002 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 An upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Mid-South tonight. The good news is our first Fall cold front is expected to arrive tomorrow. As a result abundant sunshine will result in seasonably warm temperatures again, only slightly cooler than today.