Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Favorable flying conditions today through tonight as high pressure remains over Texas. /issued 329 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Established 500mb ridge over Texas extending into the Southern Rockies will remain in place through the Short-term. Surface ridging extending over the Gulf combines with a thermal low over SW Texas and NE Mexico producing a southerly flow allowing for a steady increase in low level moisture. With the ridge remaining overhead no other feature is indicated to provide forcing or lift of the moisture. Temperatures remain at or slightly above seasonal norms thanks to the modest 588mb ridge.
A dry cold front is approaching western Montana, and will produce increasing west winds through today.
/06Z TAFS/ A few convective cells may interact with AUS with rain and outflow winds possible this afternoon and the high-res reflectivity stamps seem to agree with slightly higher chances at AUS versus the Hwy 90 terminals. Tomorrow, ridging aloft will strengthen some, but with elevated moisture remaining in place and some weak upper energy embedded in the northerly flow aloft, some isolated showers or perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the afternoon over the northeastern two-thirds of the region, lower in coverage than today. Expecting it to be a bit warmer as surface flow returns to southerly/southeasterly with the loss of any influence from Ida.
Winds are starting to shift back to the north as high pressure from Canada begins to drop further south towards us today. Once we hit daylight today, expect another day like yesterday, with temperatures possibly being a little cooler, particularly along the southern shore of Lake Superior as light northerly winds should keep these areas a little cooler (think upper 60s). should be in the low to mid 70s, as mostly sunny skies are expected. Expect conditions to become drier today as the high pressure approaches us today and tonight. Thinking that it is very possible for lows to get into the upper 30s across the interior west tonight as the high pressure should bring cooler, drier conditions over us.
Slightly hotter temperatures are expected over the next couple of afternoons as a strong cyclonically curve jet moves into the northern Rockies Today and northern Plains Tonight, helping to amplify the upper ridge over the central Great Plains. A look at the HRRR model soundings this morning shows a relatively weak wind profile through much of the lower troposphere, suggesting wind gusts this afternoon may be well limited. Of the models this afternoon the FV3 is consistently too warm while the HRRR is just a couple of degrees warmer than the consensus of most of the rest of the CAMS. Consensus is for mid 60s overnights across the western third of so the the forecast areas, while the lower elevation plains east of highway 283 may be a bit warmer/mild around 70s degrees by early Wednesday morning.
619 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 (Today and tonight) The axis of the mid/upper ridge will shift east into the southern Plains today.
DDV (Issued 323 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021) Today through Wednesday: A weak cold front made decent southward progress over Lake Michigan yesterday but stopped just south of Green Bay overnight. As high pressure to our north strengthens and shifts south we can expect the front to regain its southward momentum today. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today especially for eastern locations with highs mid to upper 70s. Similar conditions are forecast for Wednesday with high pressure remaining overhead.
The highest potential for flash flooding this evening will be over Iron, Washington, and western Garfield and Kane counties.
As the upper level trough moves into central Canada on Wednesday, southwest flow will bring stronger energy across the area later in the day and Wednesday night. A cold front will push through the area later Wednesday and Wednesday night as well. CAPE and shear will be most favorable for isolated strong to severe storms mainly to the east of the Black Hills, especially toward central SD, ahead of the advancing cold front.
234 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep but narrow ridge aligned from the Carolina coastline, over the Florida Peninsula, to near the Yucatan Peninsula. This ridge is straddled by two cyclonic gyres -- a lower/mid-tropospheric gyre associated with Tropical Depression IDA over the Tennessee Valley, and a mid/upper-tropospheric gyre associated with the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), and centered over eastern Cuba. Over the next 48 hours, the upper flow pattern over the North American midlatitudes will quickly amplify, with a building anticyclone over the Plains and a developing long-wave trough across the East. The large-scale trough will absorb the remnant circulation of IDA, while drawing the TUTT cell north- northeastward.
A cluster of slowly moving showers was producing very heavy rainfall with the majority of the rain production below the freezing level. Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be in the upper 50s north of Highway 30 to the lower 60s south.
The mid to upper level ridge over the area will move slowly to the northwest on Wednesday. Models continue to show a very weak trough at 25H over the coastal plains on Wednesday.
An isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out late this evening into the overnight hours as a cold front slowly sags further south toward the region. Any patchy morning fog and stratus should mix out by late morning, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon as mid level ridging builds back in from the west.
However, most of the night will be dry as high pressure builds in, bringing dry and less humid weather into the area for the next couple of days.
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Upper level ridging will build northward from the Southern and into the Central Plains today through Wednesday.
The mid-level ridge that has been over the southwestern part of the country will move over Oklahoma Wednesday.
Current temps are on the cool side and are generally in the lower 70s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid level ridging will continue to build into region and provide subsidence through the short term.
The remains of Ida will continue to move northeast into the northeast states as it merges with an eastward moving upper level trough. A weak cold front will move south into the Tennessee Valley during the day on Wednesday with the drier air moving in behind it.
By Wednesday, high pressure will build into the area bringing dry weather.
Tomorrow Ida's circulation and upper trof will pull off well to the east, taking the rain along with it. North breezes of 10-15 mph with highs around 80 and dew points in the low-mid 60s will further enforce the fact that September will have arrived.
Cooler, drier air is expected after the system passes Wednesday night. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front and Ida as a rather amplified trough-ridge-trough longwave pattern develops across the mid-latitudes of North America and strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
Given increased shear in the lowest 3km, the potential for brief rotation does exist, although is still uncertain. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 82 63 82 62 / 80 40 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 80 63 81 60 / 100 60 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 80 62 80 59 / 100 40 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 76 61 77 55 / 100 80 30 10 10 NC.
1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will build in gradually from the west today, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly in the eastern third of West Central Texas. With less cloud cover and storm activity, temperatures will climb a degree or two, with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the region. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate early evening with low in the lower to mid 70s tonight.
Clouds should clear out from northwest to southeast early evening as this system moves out of the area, with mostly clear skies then hanging on through Wednesday as high pressure begins to build into the area.
Tranquil conditions will persist tonight into Wednesday as ridging aloft continues to slowly build while edging east through the Central Plains. As a northwest flow aloft gradually intensifies across the Western High Plains, developing low pressure is projected to remain anchored in eastern Colorado through this evening while outflow from this morning's convection in southern Nebraska/northeast Kansas stalls out generally from west central Kansas into southeast Kansas.
With low level moisture remaining in place overnight temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than they were last night with mid 60's across the South Plains increasing to the low 70's across the Rolling Plains. Upper level ridge will remain in place across the region on Wednesday with little change in thicknesses.
This is occurring between the remnants of Ida which will lift into the Mid Atlantic tomorrow and high pressure expanding into the northern Great Lakes.
A weak upper level ridge moves into the area on Wednesday and temperatures are expected to warm a little.
Given increased shear in the lowest 3km, the potential for brief rotation does exist, although is still uncertain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 70 82 63 82 / 100 80 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 70 80 63 81 / 90 100 70 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 75 69 80 62 80 / 100 100 60 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 68 76 61 77 / 80 90 90 30 10 NC.
This afternoon, weak ridging aloft extended over the forecast area as an upstream trough and closed low were placed over the Pacific Northwest. A cold front extended to the southwest of the low, while some sort of frontal boundary is to the southeast. There is a slightly better chance of the cap breaking in parts of western North Dakota where mid level temperatures are cooler and height rises are closer to neutral.
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 31 2021 A dry cold front moving through Central and Southwest Montana this evening will maintain westerly winds, with temperatures trending cooler into Wednesday.
126 PM MDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Early afternoon satellite imagery shows flat ridge axis in the western Dakotas and an upper low over southeast BC (moving slowly to the east). Pressures are falling at a decent clip in eastern and south central MT as cold front approaches slowly from the NW. Behind the front, we will see a cooler night with 40s to low 50s in our west by early tomorrow.
As Ida advances into the Mid-Atlantic, it will help pull a cold front southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow. Warmer conditions are expected, which may be enough to push daytime heat indices into the 100F-105F range in southwestern zones.
The subtropical ridge has begun to expand across west TX today, resulting in clear skies across much of our CWA.
100 PM MDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Early afternoon satellite imagery shows flat ridge axis in the western Dakotas and an upper low over southeast BC (moving slowly to the east). Pressures are falling at a decent clip in eastern and south central MT as cold front approaches slowly from the NW. Behind the front, we will see a cooler night with 40s to low 50s in our west by early tomorrow.
Modest lee troughing was over the central and northern High Plains under better westerlies still to the north. Upstream water vapor imagery showing a large upper low over southern British Columbia and another weaker wave off Baja with several areas of convection in western Mexico.
254 PM MDT Tue Aug 31 2021 A weak, dry cold front moving across the Northern Rockies today will cool daytime temperatures throughout the region and redistribute some of the area wildfire smoke.
Further west, the rain has basically come to an end however, a few bands of light rain continue to linger on the backside of the low. In the wake of Ida, northwest flow ushers in a cooler and drier airmass.
339 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure over New Mexico with a low amplitude ridge extending north into the western Dakotas and south central Canada. East of the ridge, the remnants of hurricane Ida were centered over NW Alabama. Further west, closed low pressure was located over southern British Columbia. A trough of low pressure extended south of this feature into northern California. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will reach into the lower to middle 90s.
With western high plains troughing developing overnight will see southeasterly winds persist helping keep temps a bit warmer than the past couple morning's with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
High pressure will move to the southeast through Tonight, as remnants of IDA track up the Appalachians. A trough on the east side of the frontal system extending from IDA will continue to move across forecast area this afternoon and evening generating showers and storms. Another wave of moisture will develop over the Gulf and move northeast into forecast area late Tonight into early Wednesday, as moisture pools ahead of approaching cold front trailing from tropical low to the north.
205 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 The main story as we head into September is still the heat anticipated for the rest of the week and a chance for some rain and slightly cooler temperatures by this weekend. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms look to be possible toward sunrise tomorrow morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as convection develops along the periphery of the building mid level ridge in Kansas and Missouri and propagates southward within the northwest flow aloft by early morning.
Tranquil weather will continue into Wednesday as mid-level ridging gradually builds eastward, while Canadian high pressure centered to the northeast will advect seasonably dry air across the region.
A weak backdoor front will nudge in from the northeast by Wednesday morning as an upper ridge begins pivoting towards the area from the southwest. This setup is traditionally conducive for "ridge runners" with Plains convection riding the periphery of the ridge and low- level instability/theta-e gradient. This may be slightly underdone based on some hi-res guidance, but did maintain a more conservative approach for now given the low confidence nature of these setups. Unfortunately, a building ridge is also favorable for boosting temps and tomorrow will be no exception.
Therefore, storm chances tomorrow will remain confined to the higher terrain and adjacent plains.
Upper ridge will then begin to build into the area on Wednesday and should end the precipitation chances.
An upper low over southern British Columbia is bringing SW flow across the area while near the surface, a surge of moist and unstable air is moving in on SE winds over the eastern zones. Upper low swings into the Prairie Provinces Wednesday with a cool airmass to settle in.
hat index values have also been warmer than forecast with Galveston briefly reaching advisory criteria (108 degrees).
Ridging aloft will build across the region for tonight into early Wednesday as energy ejects out of the PacNW and into Canada.
This area will eventually spread NE as the trough ejects/shears out.
643 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure over New Mexico with a low amplitude ridge extending north into the western Dakotas and south central Canada. East of the ridge, the remnants of hurricane Ida were centered over NW Alabama. Further west, closed low pressure was located over southern British Columbia. A trough of low pressure extended south of this feature into northern California. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will reach into the lower to middle 90s.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 81 64 82 61 / 80 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 79 63 81 60 / 100 50 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 79 62 80 59 / 100 40 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 75 61 79 54 / 90 90 40 10 10 NC.
402 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Summary: Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday under a departing high pressure.
953 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Wx map shows Tropical Depression Ida over Eastern TN, with high pressure ridging across the Gulf of Mexico keeping a light southerly flow across the region.
Weak high pressure will cover the area for the short term as surface frontal boundary has moved into northern Kansas. On Wednesday, upper level ridging is expected to move into the Central Plains through the day. Late Wednesday night an upper level short wave trough is forecast to eject out of Wyoming and move northeast into the Dakotas. This will allow a cold front to move into central Nebraska on Wednesday.
Upper trough passing by to our north has cleared smoke out of the northwest half of our CWA.
739 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 High pressure anchored over the upper great lakes ensures benign weather for aviation this taf period. Confidence in renewed lower cloud development during the morning period remains low owing to the higher magnitude of dry air and shallow moisture flux. This is occurring between the remnants of Ida which will lift into the Mid Atlantic tomorrow and high pressure expanding into the northern Great Lakes.
614 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Light winds and VFR dominating with upper level high pressure ridge building overhead. With low level moisture remaining in place overnight temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than they were last night with mid 60's across the South Plains increasing to the low 70's across the Rolling Plains. Upper level ridge will remain in place across the region on Wednesday with little change in thicknesses.
1032 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 High pressure will take up residence across the Great Lakes with mainly dry weather for the rest of the week with a few minor exceptions. Temperatures will trend cooler through the end of the week, with much lower humidity. High pressure will continue to reside just to our north overnight as the flow will gradually turn northeast with the northeastward advancement of the remnants of Ida. Mainly dry weather is then expected to continue through the remainder of the period as high pressure remains in control.
Remnant low pressure from Ida was moving across the Cumberland Plateau this evening.
Later tonight we'll see the next round of convection move into the northeast gulf waters and Nature Coast as the trough of low pressure settles south.
917 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure over New Mexico with a low amplitude ridge extending north into the western Dakotas and south central Canada. East of the ridge, the remnants of hurricane Ida were centered over NW Alabama. Further west, closed low pressure was located over southern British Columbia. A trough of low pressure extended south of this feature into northern California. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will reach into the lower to middle 90s.
/issued 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid level ridging will continue to build into region and provide subsidence through the short term.
644 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Summary: Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday under a departing high pressure.
The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest today will elongate, stretching from southwest to northeast over the next few days, but remaining over the region until the end of the week.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s well inland to the mid to upper 70s for locations around Lake Pontchartrain and coastal locations south of I-10. Heat index values remaining in the low to mid 80s overnight for these coastal and urban locations will keep conditions uncomfortable for those without power and air conditioning.
Tonight through Wednesday night Upper high over the southern Rockies tonight will build slowly eastward across the Panhandles later tonight through Wednesday before shifting east and south by Wednesday night. As the upper high shifts east and south away from the Panhandles late Wednesday into Wednesday night, a transition aloft to southwesterly will allow for tropical moisture coming northward from the Pacific and Mexico to advect northeast into the western Panhandles late Wednesday through Wednesday night.
827 PM MDT Tue Aug 31 2021 A dry cold front moving through Central and Southwest Montana this evening will maintain westerly winds, with temperatures trending cooler into Wednesday.
1035 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Currently - Winds remain light and quite varying across the forecast area due to being within the western flank of the surface Atlantic ridge. Lower level Atlantic ridging also extends westward across our area and into the Gulf of Mexico, however the ridge is rather weak from the Bahamas westward. This evenings sounding came back with relatively dry air through the lower levels and inhibition between 800 and 950 mb. Short Term Update - Weak ridging will continue across the area through the overnight period. The weakness of the flow, along with continued drier air and inhibition in the lower levels will keep rain chances at a minimum dimes. Weak ridging across Keys waters will result in light and variable winds through the overnight period.
Cooler, drier air is expected by Wednesday night. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front and Ida as a rather amplified trough-ridge-trough longwave pattern develops across the mid-latitudes of North America and strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures trend a bit cooler than recent over the next couple of days.
A continued cooler weather pattern will linger into Wednesday as a low pressure area aloft slowly moves over the region. High pressure aloft will build in from the east and a bring a warming trend for the holiday weekend.
In the wake of Ida, northwest flow ushers in a cooler and drier airmass.
Soundings show it getting moist in the low levels but not to the point of saturation.
/Issued 205 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/ The main story as we head into September is still the heat anticipated for the rest of the week and a chance for some rain and slightly cooler temperatures by this weekend. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms look to be possible toward sunrise tomorrow morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as convection develops along the periphery of the building mid level ridge in Kansas and Missouri and propagates southward within the northwest flow aloft by early morning.
335 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Welcome to meteorological fall! High pressure sitting over Hudson Bay extends southward into the Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning with light to calm surface winds. This will yield similar, if not slightly cooler, temperatures compared to yesterday with highs in the 70s to around 80. A slightly cooler night on tap tonight with lower fog potential owing to some drier air advecting in from the northeast today.
As Ida advances into the Mid-Atlantic, it will help pull a cold front southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow. Warmer conditions are expected, which may be enough to push daytime heat indices into the 100F-105F range in southwestern zones. Temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler as a result.
As the upper level trough moves into central Canada on Wednesday, southwest flow will bring stronger energy across the area later in the day and Wednesday night. A cold front will push through the area later Wednesday and Wednesday night as well. CAPE and shear will be most favorable for isolated strong to severe storms mainly to the east of the Black Hills, especially toward central SD, ahead of the advancing cold front. The cold front will move slowly east of the area by midday Thursday, with main chances for showers and storms in the afternoon and evening over south central SD.
41 By Thursday morning, the trough associated with the remnants of Ida has shifted off to our north and east and taken any remaining tropical moisture with it.