Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today through Wednesday: Drier air and high pressure are expected to build into the area through this time period.
601 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Upper level ridge remains to the west of the area as an upper level trough is moving south across the eastern U. The highest heat index readings across the southeastern Kansas and western MO where heat index values in the middle to upper 90s are expected. Heat index values in the lower to upper 90s are expected again.
515 AM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge across the central CONUS, with deep trof off the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure is located across the the Dakotas with lee trof developing across central Montana and Wyoming. Upper ridge axis will reside across the Northern Plains today. Strong upper low moving across central Canada will flatten the central CONUS ridge, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. A cold front will move into the area very late tonight.
The strong high pressure system aloft will park itself over the Four Corners area today through Wednesday.
620 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will move slowly through the area this afternoon and a few showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly in the east Midlands.
618 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
444 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A ridge of high pressure will build westward from the 4 corners region this week bringing dangerously hot, life-threatening temperatures. This flow is being directed between a trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast and a ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners Region. The trough will swing inland today as the high pressure ridge strengthens and begins to build westward over southern California. The trough lifts northeast into Canada on Wednesday allowing the dome of high pressure to expand across California. Widespread triple digit heat will begin to affect the rest of the lower elevations on Wednesday too but not to critical levels yet.
The low over the Black Hills continues to help generate some storms across western SD, but there has been little, if any, movement east into central SD with limited forcing available. Winds will increase out of the southeast today west of the James Valley as the gradient tightens ahead of the low moving off the Rockies. The low will move off the Rockies and push east across the state on Wednesday with breezy southerly winds ahead of the front and breezy northerly winds behind it. The period starts out with an upper level Canadian low continuing to knock down the ridge that has been in place.
Meanwhile, upper ridge will continue to build across the region, with a very hot air mass still in place. Despite this ridge moving overhead, there could be enough moisture and support via decent upslope component to provide afternoon and evening isolated thunderstorm development over and near the mountains today. Some potential for an isolated storm to move away from the higher terrain, especially around the Pikes Peak region, this afternoon.
225 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Today will be cooler and locally breezy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
558 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 An upper low will move across the area today, bringing a period of showers and a few thunderstorms.
622 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry and VFR will continue with our area remaining in the southeast quadrant of the massive upper level high pressure centered over the 4-Corners.
An amplified flow pattern was analyzed over the western/central CONUS this morning as a stout ridge builds over the Northern Plains. A baroclinic zone under the ridge, rooted around 800-700 mb, has been the initiation point for elevated convection from central Montana through western South Dakota early this morning. Warmest temperatures today will be in the southwest, on the edge of an eastward advancing thermal ridge. Highs in the low-mid 80s west to 90s southeast forecast.
632 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A passing weak trough may spawn a few showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 and along the ridges.
1049 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
This is a result of a relatively complex synoptic environment, which features the base of high amplitude trof along the eastern seaboard just to the north of the area. This has served to displace the axis of the Atlantic ridge to our south, with winds through the boundary layer out of the southwest.
Add in the forcing of a cold front around daybreak and strong thunderstorms are expected from the Yaak down to north-central Idaho and throughout the Cabinet and Purcell Mountain ranges. With the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees compared to the previous 2 days. Although this cool off will feel good to most, we will still be around 5 degrees warmer than normal through Wednesday and as much as 15 degrees warmer than normal by the weekend as high pressure rebounds over the region.
725 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A passing weak trough may spawn a few showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 and along the ridges.
/Issued 223 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ An N-S elongated upper ridge to our west will gradually orient itself more NE to SW by midweek, and will maintain hot and dry weather for our area.
310 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Warming trend this week with widespread triple digit heat expected across the lower elevations by mid-week continuing into the weekend. Action in the form of showers and thunderstorms remains well to the north over northeast Oregon and eastern Washington in advance of the trough now approaching the PacNW coast. High pressure will begin to rebuild across NorCal today as the upper trough pushes east toward the far northern Rockies.
Today through Wednesday Today will be the hottest day of the year thus far for many locations as the ridge reaches its maximum strength. An approaching dry cold front will help to increase southwest winds ahead of it this afternoon. The cold front will help bring down Wednesday's highs, with the most relief across Johnson County and the far northern Bighorn Basin.
415 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Our weather continues to be dominated by the stout mid level high centered over the Four Corners and accompanying high amplitude ridge across the west central CONUS. Highs today and tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s for the vast majority of the region (upper 80s across northeast MO) with subsidence keeping skies clear.
Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving into northeast Texas early this morning. This short wave trough will move south to southwest into central Texas this afternoon. Models show the short wave trough or developing mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) will move southwest into the Brush Country Wednesday.
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 The 12Z TAF period is expected to be pretty quiet, as the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle sit under high pressure. /Issued 159 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ An upper level high pressure system will dominate the area for the next few days. The center of the high pressure will be primarily centered over the Four Corners Region with northerly to northeasterly flow aloft.
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Our weather continues to be dominated by the stout mid level high centered over the Four Corners and accompanying high amplitude ridge across the west central CONUS. Highs today and tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s for the vast majority of the region (upper 80s across northeast MO) with subsidence keeping skies clear.
258 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A Pacific cold front will shift winds to westerly for most areas tonight with windy conditions continuing into Wednesday across north-central Montana. Somewhat cooler but mainly dry conditions follow for the rest of the week. Temperatures rose rapidly this morning as the shallow surface layers mixed out to the well established layer of warmer air aloft. The Pacific cold front associated with this system has crossed the northern Rockies and is beginning to press across western portions of North-central Montana. PN Temperatures on Wednesday will be around 15-20 degrees cooler than today thanks to the cold front and suppression of the upper level ridge as the previously mentioned upper trough lifts NE across western Canada.
Tonight, despite dewpoints in the 60s, the light winds and clear skies should induce enough radiational cooling for the lows to drop into the upper 60s for most of the region. Wednesday, some warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge, a switch of surface winds to a warmer southeasterly direction, and mostly sunny skies, should result in warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
A surface cold front has stalled across the Anaconda-Pintler Wilderness in southwest Montana this afternoon.
For the rest of today, an upper level trough and mid to high level jet lifting northeast into Canada will pass over the forecast area. This will aid any shower and isolated thunderstorm development as the storm potential moves north and east over the Lower Columbia Basin, Blues, Ochocos, and Wallowa county. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate by this evening as trough and mid level jet exit the region.
/issued 955 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ As of 9:45 AM CDT, temperatures are continuing upward at an anticipated rate with dew points in the low-70s in most of the Ark-La-Tex.
By Wed afternoon, thicknesses will increase slightly and max temps will be around 1-3 degrees warmer than today. Precip chances will remain nonexistent Wed under the influence of the upper ridge.
Enjoying cooler temperatures and less humid conditions than this time yesterday afternoon per high pressure influences building out of Manitoba/Ontario Providences of Canada starting to take hold across mid state region. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be close to values being experienced this afternoon as bulk of Canadian based high pressure influences expected across mid state region.
329 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A welcomed quiet pattern change and ridge dominated regime for the short term. Pretty strong NW flow aloft and dry ridging persists for Wednesday and will actually have afternoon highs slightly below to near normal.
High pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry and cooler conditions to the area today. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 85 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 81 58 83 60 / 0 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 57 83 60 / 0 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 78 50 80 55 / 0 10 0 0 0.
The upper ridge is centered over the Four Corners region, with the ridge axis extending up into the western Dakotas. There is a weak zone of near surface convergence along the eastern edge periphery of the ridge, which has led to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska today. Heat indices are not too far off the actual temperatures, as vertical mixing has lowered dewpoints by a few degrees from this morning, now generally in the low/mid 60s. Tomorrow will see more of the same, though perhaps a degree or two hotter as slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures move in. Once again, heat indices will not be much higher than the actual temperatures, thanks to dewpoints only in the low to mid 60s.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through much of the week. This high pressure centered over the four corners region will help more mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of daily isolated mainly dry thunderstorms.
Temperatures will fall into the low-70s with dew points in the upper-60s to low-70s. Afternoon highs are trended towards persistence as the NBM has handled the warmer temperatures in a more accurate fashion, with low to mid-90s likely areawide. Otherwise, overnight lows in the low-70s are likely with mostly clear skies.
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A fairly high amplitude trough is sitting along the east coast, and is currently part of a blocking pattern with a large ridge sitting over the southwestern states. Because of this, the trough will be slow to degrade and move off towards the northeast. There is a large swath of moisture through the depth of the troposphere to the east of the trough along the eastern seaboard which extends across south Florida and the Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico.
215 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Latest GOES-W satellite imagery showed the mid/upper level ridge centered over the WY/CO Front Range. The nearest thunderstorm activity was detected over the higher terrain of central and southern CO. A weak front will settle south into east-central WY and northern NE Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, lowering temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Wednesday night will be cooler with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
346 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 No major changes to the forecast today as high pressure builds in for the week.
High pressure remains the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee this afternoon.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through much of the week. This high pressure centered over the four corners region will help more mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of daily isolated mainly dry thunderstorms. Excessive heat will continue through the weekend as high pressure aloft remains in place.
230 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front crossing eastern Midlands this afternoon.
1105 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front crossing the area through the afternoon.
208 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Anomalously strong upper level ridge currently centered over the Four Corners Region will continue to build into the area over the next couple of days, which will maintain hot and dry weather for much of our forecast area through the end of the week.
* None The Great Lakes region will lie between a high amplitude ridge axis across central NOAM and a long wave trough from eastern Canada into the ern US over the next couple days. Gusty north winds off Lake Huron today combined with the cooler airmass will keep afternoon highs confined to the 60s across the thumb, with better mixing potential farther inland supporting highs into the 70s. Some airmass modification on Wednesday under full sun will support slightly warmer afternoon highs.
1112 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front sweep across the region late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build across the Southeast U.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Northerly flow remains centered across the Great Lake early this afternoon between sharp Intermountain West centered ridge axis and deep northeast NOAM centered troughing. Combination of this high and flow directed out of Canada has resulted in mostly sunny skies and temperatures running just a smidge below normal.
244 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 We continue to see troughing in the upper level with abundant lower level moisture and westerly winds. As we go through the afternoon troughing will start to move away and winds will slowly be shifting to the south.
1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Upper level ridge remains to the west of the area as an upper level trough is moving south across the eastern U. The highest heat index readings across the southeastern Kansas and western MO where heat index values in the middle to upper 90s are expected. Heat index values in the lower to upper 90s are expected again.
248 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A dry cold front has pushed through the region, with a notable drop in dewpoints in its wake. In fact, current readings across the Tennessee Valley are in the low to mid 50s, making our current surface temperatures in the mid 80s feel quite comfortable. The end result will be a cooler and much more comfortable night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect more of the same for the rest of the work week as high pressure settles into the area. Thanks to the lower dewpoints and RH values, it will feel fairly pleasant for this time of year.
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will sweep across the region late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build across the Southeast U.
Hot and dry conditions will persist Tuesday as the large upper ridge remains firmly in place over the Rockies. Skies should be mostly clear of clouds through the day, but we may experience an increase in haze due to smoke from multiple fires to our south and west, which is flowing through the ridge to Colorado. Recent RAP and HRRR Smoke runs suggest that the higher concentrations of the plume will move over the mountains in the afternoon and evening and may affect the plains by Tuesday night. The large high pressure ridge will remain across the 4 corners region on Wednesday with continued hot temperatures and possibly more record breaking heat.
139 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A mostly dry cold front will move south through the region this afternoon.
/Issued 639 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ The 12Z TAF period is expected to be pretty quiet, as the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle sit under high pressure. /Issued 159 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ An upper level high pressure system will dominate the area for the next few days. The center of the high pressure will be primarily centered over the Four Corners Region with northerly to northeasterly flow aloft.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast each afternoon, especially over the high terrain.
A north-south oriented cold front traverses the area from the west Wednesday. This increase of theta-e content will gather beneath an EML ejecting out of the high terrain of the west, helping steepen mid level lapse rates. The cold front will be driven by height falls as upper ridging flattens due to a developing upper low in central Canada.
Interestingly a late surge of cooler air behind the passing H850 front did drop temps in a handful of locations into the 50s. High pressure at the surface and a northwest flow pattern aloft will provide dry, fair weather for eastern Kentucky. The period will begin with an upper level low featured across the east coast of Quebec and a large ridge across the Four Corners.
340 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure will build across the Southeast U.
Mid-level troughing moving onshore in the pacific northwest will move northeastward into the Canadian Prairies tomorrow pushing the western ridge eastward. The thermal ridge axis moves into Minnesota tomorrow with high temperatures increasing a few degrees from today with highs topping out in the mid 80s east to the mid 90s west. The previously mentioned mid-level trough will start to drag a front through the area overnight Wednesday.
Notably warmer weather develops Wednesday as the upper ridge builds eastward and warm air advection ramps up in southerly flow ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Further east, temperatures will be slightly cooler but still peak near or above 90 degrees.
131 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Aviation - Dry and seasonably warm air today and Wednesday - Warmer, increasing moisture, chance of storms late week -- Dry and seasonably warm air today and Wednesday -- North flow will continue to advect drier air into Michigan.
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Northwest flow aloft and large high pressure anchored over Ontario were keeping sunny, dry and warm conditions going over the area this afternoon. Actual temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s west, lower 80s east, which is a bit warmer than anticipated, possibly due to the drying soil conditions. High pressure will remain the dominant influence overnight into Wednesday. The Canadian high will drop south into the western Great Lakes Wednesday as the sharp upper level ridge over the Rockies and Northern Plains begins to flatten and nudge eastward.
1248 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A passing weak trough may spawn a few showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 and along the ridges this afternoon.
Refreshingly pleasant and dry weather will last through midweek with noticeably cooler nights and low humidity.
1110 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Today will be cooler and locally breezy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
At the surface, a cold front will approach the northern Gulf coast through the day today; however, given the lack of forcing aloft, the main focus of storm development through the period will be focused along seabreeze boundaries that development this afternoon and Wednesday. Thus, given this, the high CAPE combined with high PWATs, and the seabreeze boundary, some isolated to scattered storms are expected to development along the coast today with the potential for some downbursts with strong outflow occurring. As drier air filters in from the north, lows tonight will be a tad cooler with low to to near 70 along and north of I-10, and low to upper 70s south. Highs Wednesday will also be slightly cooler, ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.
1227 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms today, some of which may be strong to severe. High pressure will build behind the front bringing a long stretch of near rain-free conditions. High amplitude upper level trough and associated surface cold front today is expected to be a weather maker, especially for this afternoon. As front pushes offshore, a local low pressure forms and the front will stall, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday near coastal communities. Dry northwesterly mid level flow through the period on the backside of a healthy trough over the Northeast.
Satellite imagery indicated a longwave trough across the eastern half of the nation this morning with an amplified ridge over the Rockies, and extending northward into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, high pressure is in control and will remain in control through tonight with dry conditions and an easterly flow. This flow will become southeast Wednesday which is in response to a powerful storm system moving inland over the Pacific Northwest today, and allows for a cold front/trough of low pressure to develop and move across the Northern Plains.
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Amplified upper pattern in place with a hot ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners and a strong closed low over Quebec. In between we have deep northerly flow with Canadian high pressure building south from Gitche Gumee. As a result, mild and dry weather will continue through Wednesday, with the only noticeable differences being a cooler start Wednesday morning, and less wind through the day.
256 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Breezy conditions with a cold front moving through the area on Wednesday highlights the short term forecast. Low level warm air advection ahead of the low and attendant cold front will keep overnight lows quite mild, in the 60s. The cold front moving through on Wednesday is the main feature of the forecast. Winds will diminish late Wednesday as the front exits and diurnal mixing decreases, with cooler overnight lows in the 50s.
149 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Latest upper air analysis has the upper ridge axis over the western half of the CWA as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is located across the the Dakotas with lee trof developing across central Montana and Wyoming. The strong upper low over the Pacific Northwest will move across Canada, flatting the central CONUS ridge, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. A cold front is expected to push through the region overnight and shift the winds out of the northwest.
137 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 The ridge axis has pulled east into the High Plains with a very dry and hot southwest flow across the forecast area. The upper ridge flattens out tonight with a dry westerly flow across the area through Wednesday night. A cold front will push across the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. The biggest beneficiary will be across the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County where highs will be around 15 degrees cooler, while the rest of the area should see highs between 4 and 8 degrees cooler. The upper-level ridge that has been impacting the region will begin to flatten out and become more zonal to start the period.