Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
from the upper 40s in Northeast Arkansas to the low 60s in Northeast Mississippi. /issued 227 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ Large scale lift to the southeast of an upper level low pressure system moving northeast across the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight will overspread the Mid South later this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures should remain mild ahead of a trailing cold front that will move into northwest portions of the area late tonight. This front will slowly sag southeast through the day as the upper low lifts out to the northeast. but slightly cooler to the north.
High pressure will maintain dry weather across the area through Tuesday although low clouds will continue over the San Joaquin Valley.
403 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 Warm air advection will increase aloft across the area tonight and at the surface on Tuesday as an upper ridge builds over the region.
834 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 The only update to the current forecast was to make overnight temperatures cooler as many locations were quickly approaching their forecast overnight low temperatures.
Upper ridge sliding in place over the northern Rockies. The upper ridge will get flattened tonight and Tuesday.
908 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold front will move through on Tuesday.
840 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will build over the area overnight. A stationary front over the southern mid-Atlantic states will move north as a warm front Tuesday.
636 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Warm frontal boundary lifts north today and tonight for warmer temperatures and rain showers. Cold front Tuesday night. Shower activity will increase across the region tonight and on Tuesday, as a low pressure system across the central U. Cold front crosses Tuesday night, with showers diminishing in its wake. Any thunderstorms ahead of the cold front should diminish prior to the start of the period, as driving upper level short wave trough lifts out into the northeastern U. , actually outrunning the surface cold front.
309 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 Latest water vapor loop was showing the intense upper level low continuing to spin to the northeast. This closed low is showing signs of blocking the upper level ridge from building into the Rockies and slowing down the erosion of the cloud cover and subsidence.
321 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 228 PM CDT No real big concerns through the period as high pressure to the west is expected to build overhead later tonight into Sunday. Clearing skies still anticipated into Sunday, while warmer air mass advects into the region. As high pressure shifts to the east during the day Sunday, southerly winds will pick up while temps rise into the 50s. This will assist in keeping temps cooler in the 40s for locations near the lake.
142 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Mixed precipitation is expected today and tonight as low pressure crosses the region. Building high pressure should return dry weather later Sunday. Around an inch of snow is expected, with 1-2 inches toward the higher terrain of WV/MD/PA. The ridges could also see a period of freezing drizzle Sunday morning as moisture in the snow growth region dries out, but low level moisture lingers. Clouds should decrease late Sunday as high pressure builds in.
300 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Low pressure to develop south of New England tonight into Sunday. This low pressure system will pass out to sea southeast of Cape Cod and then into the Gulf of Maine.
1136 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Broad high pressure will remain over the area today and tonight. The 500 mb ridgeline will slide east of the area by sunset today with SW flow aloft spreading over the area ahead of a strong Pacific storm system.
Observational trends show temperatures have already reached the 90s early this afternoon across much of the lower deserts. Little to no change in temperatures is expected tomorrow, and some locations across southwest Arizona and near the lower Colorado River Valley will actually be slightly warmer.
High pressure was dominant over central California this afternoon. A cold front is currently draped across northern California.
1231 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Pleasant and mild day expected throughout the region with upper level ridging building over the high Plains. With warmer air building aloft, the breezy winds will create mixy conditions. Strong warming still expected on Sunday, ahead of and immediately preceding cold front pushing into the Lower James River Valley by late afternoon. Begin to see cooling aloft behind the cold front by 21z, but with 850mb readings still in the teens, mid to upper depending on model preference.
315 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Tonight through Sunday: Despite a weak cold front pushing south through the forecast area today and into tonight, little appreciable difference will be noted in the weather except for more seasonal temperatures across the area tonight under clearing skies. Warm afternoon temperatures will return for Sunday thanks to an upper-level ridge of high pressure edging eastward during the day, and a combination of mostly sunny skies and drier air allowing for good afternoon mixing. /NF/ Sunday night through the coming work week: We are expecting regional weather over this period to generally be dominated by upper level ridging extending north from Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, which will of course correlate to warmer than normal temperatures.
The lowest relative humidities do not appear to be collocated with the strongest winds, so will hold off for now on any fire weather headlines.
mid layer dry air and the influence of northern Gulf high pressure should suppress any storm development. The 200 mb upper level trough should move east of the forecast area and do expect ridging to help end the rain chances later this afternoon. Upper ridging over Midland at 00z will slide eastward today and combined with strong cap limit rain chances to the area mainly south of I-10 and west of I-45. Upper ridge continues to creep eastward and should end rain chances tonight for SETX but may see a storm or two develop closer to the Sabine river after midnight.
For tonight, with the ridge overhead expect little in the way of clouds tonight with unseasonably warm temps. Lows will only get into the 40s and 50s on the plains and 20s and 30s across the higher terrain. Record warm temps will be possible (likely?) tomorrow across the region as the ridge moves to the east and the westerly low level gradient picks up a bit over the area.
231 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Upper level low drops southeast tonight to the mid Atlantic coast.
The warm dry period that has persisted over our region will give way to cooler and weather this coming week as temperatures pull back to near normal.
The cold front which moved through the forecast area earlier today is moving into central Mississippi with high pressure centered over southwest Iowa. The high is forecast to move into central Illinois tonight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River so some patchy frost is possible in these areas. High pressure will remain over the region on Sunday with more dry weather expected. A warm front will be moving into central Arkansas Sunday night.
Surface observations show warm front positioned just north of the Red River Valley and will gradually move northwards tonight and tomorrow. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight tonight over the higher terrain in NW Arkansas as the warm front moves northward and increasing low-level jet.
A warm front across eastern Montana this afternoon will propagate east across North Dakota tonight and occlude. A mild overnight is favored tonight given the warm airmass and increased mixing with the passage of the aforementioned front with widespread lows above freezing. Despite cold air advection, most of western and central North Dakota outside of the far southwest may actually see warmer temperatures on Sunday compared to Saturday thanks to greater mixing.
1258 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 A weak cold front continues to slowly backdoor SW into extreme SE OK/SW AR, and extended from just S of a FSM, to just S of ADF, to CDH and LLQ line as of 18Z. The slightly cooler dew points remain in the delta for now, but upstream 30 and 40s have pushed into much of E AR and will sag our way all day. Low 60s now in El Dorado are forecast to dip into mid 50s, the latest HRRR is warmer for ELD at 21Z so will leave well enough alone with something of wind shift likely to occur for AR counties and maybe down into I-20 corridor of N LA just not sure about much of an air mass change.
Keeping an eye on the higher dewpoints today with and unstable layer aloft.
1227 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017 An upper level ridge will be over the area today which will keep the weather dry and very warm. Tonight the upper ridge will flatten over the area as a disturbance moves through the flow to the north. The weather will remain dry and overnight lows should be warmer than average.
Temperatures will likely top out around 90 on the Caprock, with low to middle 90s over the lower elevations. However, further west, isolated high based convection will likely develop over the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico. An upper level ridge will propagate across the central U.
Winds are out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15 knots at the marine stations east of the Lower Keys, near 15 knots at Smith Shoal and Pulaski Shoal lights, and Near 15 knots, gusting to near 20 knots at Sand Key Light. The trough moving across the Great Lakes will continue to trek eastward through Sunday, and deepen off the Northeast Metroplex Sunday afternoon. A short wave is currently pivoting around the upper low over the DELMARVA Peninsula, and will continue to adjust the position of the ridge to the southeast. Behind the deepening trough, a backdoor front will slide across South Florida and the Keys Sunday night.
404 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Surface and H8 ridge will move east of CWA during the evening and overnight period, allowing southerly flow to return to the area, impacting temperatures and low level moisture. Records are in the lower 80s, thus though well above normal for mid-March, not record setting. Front will move south of the area overnight Sunday, placing enter CWA on the cold side of the surface frontal system, and thus temperatures will trend cooler.
611 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Crossing low pressure will generate rain and snow showers through Sunday morning.
/issued 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/ A persistent upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the region, as above normal temperatures look to continue through the next 7 days.
The upper-level pattern remains amplified with a ridge over the central U. and troughing over the east. This will keep the region under dry northwesterly flow aloft and also help to push another cold front through the state late tonight and during Sunday. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure over central Florida today will weaken and split as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
No precipitation as drier air moves in and the lack for surface forcing (weak winds) precludes any rain especially with high pressure aloft.
Cold front currently very close to Nashville. Drier air currently settling in behind a passing cold front expected to bring largely VFR conditions to middle TN the next 24 hours.
Windy conditions will develop this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front passes.
In the near/immediate term, we have a cold front bearing down on the FA, and ahead of it, dense fog with vsbys restricted to 1/4 mile or less in many locations, particularly east of the Mississippi river. Already expanded the inherited Fog Advisory westward to the river, and at press release, will have to make a final adjustment for counties behind and still in front of the cold front/passage. After that, High pressure moves in/overhead and provides a dry/seasonally nice weekend. With the High shifting east Sunday, return flow southerlies warm sector us Sunday night.
There has been a downward trend in the coverage since noon which looks to be due to the upper ridge becoming more dominate as the upper trough continues to move off to the east. Over the weekend a building upper level ridge will help diminish rain chances and bring a continued trend of daytime high temperatures reaching into the lower to mid 80s. An upper level low pressure trough will move into the Southern Plains and Texas late in the work week.
245 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 An area of low pressure will move southeast through the Great Lakes today, with some showers moving across the Ohio Valley.
135 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Cold front has cleared Middle Tennessee, with high pressure building in from the northwest and drier, cooler air advecting in.
246 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 An upper trough and cold front will push through the area later this afternoon providing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Pee Dee/Catawba region.
Overall warmer pattern as any troughing looks to be brief with best northern stream dynamics and coldest air staying well north into Canada.
Showers have diminished and exited the forecast area in association with a cold frontal passage.
329 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 At H5 large closed low centered over Juneau and quasi blocking pattern over the Great Lakes with broad trough extending into the southeast CONUS. Between these two systems is a large warm dry ridge of high pressure extending from Mexico through the northern plains into central Canada. Cold front will move through dry with stronger winds in the west.
Clearing conditions are expected this evening as the weakening cold front clears the region and the associated storm system moves eastward. Surface ridging will begin to nose into the region behind this system, yielding tranquil conditions and cool temperatures tonight.
Clouds were thinning and breaking up as the cold front sags south into the afternoon over AR.
240 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 High pressure ridging over the northern Plains and lower MO valley will drop into the lower OH and TN valleys Sunday morning. Lows should bottom out in the lower to middle 30s in these areas with upper 30s along the MS border. Fine weather is forecast for Sunday as the surface and 850 mb ridges shift east into the region with light flow expected.
146 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Cold front crosses today. Upper disturbance crosses today into tonight as low pressure intensifies off the east coast.
1255 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 The low clouds continue to break up to the east of the Red River Valley, but it appears it will take the longest to scour out in the immediate valley. Will see much less wind today with cirrus filtered skies as cirrus continues to spill over the top of the ridge and drift over eastern North Dakota. A cold front will work across the area Sunday afternoon with increasing clouds high and mid level clouds.
257 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Upper level low drops southeast tonight to the mid Atlantic coast.
Cold front now approaching n Ga will move across se Ga/ne Fl late tonight. Highs will be cooler on Sunday behind front with readings ranging from the mid 60s coast to the upper 60s/low 70s inland. Chilly conditions Sunday night as high pressure settles in.
Temperatures ranged the upper 20s across the far north to the lower 40s across east-central Wisconsin. For the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, most of the low clouds should dissipate around sunset or shortly after. On Sunday, increasing south winds are expected ahead of a cold front.
Another bout of low clouds and fog may develop early Sunday morning as the low-level moisture lingers in the region.
An increase in clouds and lower level moisture will result in cooler conditions across the region this weekend with a slight chance of light precipitation, primarily across the North Bay.
High pressure continues working in from the west, leading to diminishing wind speeds early this morning. Meanwhile, the amplified upper level ridge aloft will begin spreading across the Upper Midwest. The stratus deck covering most of the area will erode from west to east as much drier air fills in behind the departing trough that is currently centered over the Great Lakes. Partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected by this afternoon and temperatures should reach the low to mid 40s, going a few degrees higher than the guidance consensus.
245 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Latest sfc analysis shows last night's cold front stalled invof KMAF, and return flow has pretty much washed it out. WV imagery shows the upper ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is almost centered over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
345 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Broad upper level ridge dominating the western CONUS will gradually shift east this weekend while trough over the northeast coast exits the region. This trough will bring weak front over South Florida on Sunday.
A mid level disturbance and attendant jet streak will move over Central Idaho & Western Montana in conjunction with an approaching cold front later this afternoon (between 5pm & 7pm MDT). Breezy winds will persist into this evening and there could even be a few rumbles of thunder as the cold front passes. Dramatically colder air exists behind the cold front and should produce occasionally snow covered conditions on Lost Trail, Homestake and MacDonald Pass.
Temperatures up to around 50 degrees over west central Illinois in the clear area, but mainly holding in the lower 40s over the eastern CWA. High pressure area currently west of the Mississippi River will continue to edge eastward across the Mississippi Valley tonight.
The low clouds have finally been lifting, but remain in the central and northern Red River Valley north of Fargo. Following this, wind speeds should decrease somewhat on Sunday, with much warmer temperatures expected. It will stay quite a bit cooler though for areas with deeper snow cover. A cold front will be moving through the area late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
257 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Sunday with upper level ridge axis shifting eastward across the state. There is a weak wave passing to our north Sunday morning which knocks the ridge down slightly, increasing westerly flow aloft.
339 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 The 20Z afternoon surface analysis showed a high pressure axis extending down the central Missouri River basin, bisecting the eastern half of the CWA. Upper level ridging encompassed much of the western CONUS with high orographically-generated cirrus spilling southeastward across the Central Plains. As the high slides east tonight, return flow is expected to bring an increase in low-level moisture northward from the Southern Plains.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a large amplitude ridge over the western half of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the southeast across our CWA. The upper level ridge will continue to dominate over Texas during this period.
121 PM PDT Sat Mar 18 2017 A high pressure ridge aloft over the Southwest will keep the weather fair and mild through Sunday, except for areas of low clouds and fog within twenty miles or so of the coast nights and mornings.
Upper ridge axis is right overhead currently and is progged to move eastward into Nebraska overnight. Ridge aloft will flatten on Sunday with increasingly zonal flow.
353 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 An upper-level low will move east of the region tonight with high pressure building in behind it for Sunday.
At 19z, cold front was seen in surface observations moving through central WA and OR.
306 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Northwest flow continues at the surface with a high pressure ridge now pushing into western Iowa. Lows in the mid to upper 20s in the northeast 1/2, while increasing southeast winds in southern sections help keep lows closer to freezing. Initial concern is chance for storms Sunday night ahead of the advancing cold front.
/issued 1006 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/ Skies are clearing across much of the forecast area this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s. The cold front is moving south through north Mississippi at this time. areas of dense fog will continue through sunrise across the northern half of the region until the cold front pushes south. High pressure will settle over the region tonight with clear skies and light winds allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s. A dry but slightly cooler day can be expected on Sunday with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to around 70 degrees south.
There is some threat of this lower level cloud cover to stall and then lift back to the northwest late tonight as the southerly flow develops/increases ahead of the next cold front. Will carry some of the mid level clouds east tonight as some of this higher level moisture rides over the western ridge. and the do saturate the lower levels by early afternoon into central MN.
Expect increasing mid-level clouds at all terminals from north to south this afternoon as a weak cold front approaches. A broad upper level trough currently resides over the eastern CONUS, and will become more amplified throughout the day as it digs into the Southeast. At the surface under the base of the upper trough, a broad area of low pressure will move southeastward through the Mid- Atlantic region, with a trailing cold front moving southward through northern AL and GA during the afternoon.
The warm advection intensifies into Sunday morning as low level thermal gradient builds into Iowa with 850mb thermal ridge into western Iowa by afternoon. Highs will be much warmer than today although some cloudiness keep the overall highs in check with soundings indicating low level moisture trapped beneath a rather substantial inversion.
1201 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 High pressure over the Great plains will drift southeast into the Mississippi Valley today. This high will bring cooler temperatures to the region with highs mainly in the mid and upper 50s. The ridge will continue moving east tonight and low level return flow will develop after midnight. Lows tonight will dip down to the low and mid 30s as the high drifts overhead. May actually see the lowest temperatures between 06-09Z with steady temperatures or a little bump before sunrise. There is good agreement between the GFS/NAM/ECMWF that the upper pattern will become more zonal late in the weekend as a east coast trough moves east and the upper ridge currently over the Rockies dampens out as it moves east across the central CONUS.
A warm and dry afternoon is expected to continue across northeast Montana thanks to a large upper level ridge over the western U. extending north into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. The main story for Sunday will be cooler temperatures with highs into the 50s along with gusty west winds in the post-frontal environment.
657 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 High pressure will move east of the region overnight. low pressure will track well south of the region Sunday and Sunday night.
130 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 A few rain showers may pop here and there this afternoon, with cloudy skies prevailing through Sunday morning before high pressure brings slowly clearing skies.
320 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Crossing low pressure will bring rain and snow showers into Sunday morning. High pressure brings drier weather by late day.
/NF/ 18Z TAF discussion: As a cold front pushes south across the forecast area this afternoon, MVFR ceilings will clear from north to south. Today and tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed an upper trough over the Great Lakes region dragging a cold front toward the region under northwest flow aloft. The cold front and isolated showers will exit the region by this evening. Lows will range from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
Elevated moisture will spread northeast over top the warm front and looks to spark off some showers/storms late tonight into Sunday morning across southeast Kansas and Missouri. Meanwhile much warmer air and gusty south winds will overspread the region on Sunday, with daytime highs possibly breaking a few record highs across central Kansas.