Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOZLEY UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUES NIGHT. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. A LONG RUN OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS FLAT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TRANSITIONS TO A RATHER BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
628 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TO A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY.
643 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COLD AND PROTECTIVE INFLUENCE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET AND DRY THIS PERIOD.
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH LINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER TONIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST. I LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
There is also a potential for patchy fog development north of the low clouds, but it shouldn't be too widespread.
/ISSUED 405 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ SFC RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO ECNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SLIDE E.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS CONTINUING TO VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
405 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015 SFC RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO ECNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SLIDE E.
THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL E-ENE FLOW PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SOLID LOW SC DECK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE RETURNING WARMER SE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER MORNING CEILINGS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RGV WIDE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND START WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
The low clouds will continue to decrease the next couple of hours, with clear skies area wide by sunset. Aloft, southwest flow will continue over the area into Tuesday, ahead of an upper level trough nearing the Great Basin region. At the surface, a lee trough will strengthen on Tuesday, resulting in breezy south to southwest winds from mid morning into the afternoon hours. Temperatures tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s, with warmer temperatures slated for Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 70s.
627 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015 SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. /ISSUED 225 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ THIS AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL GET INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL ALLOW THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES EAST INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT LEADING TO SOME FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GIVING A SHORT DRY SPELL.
THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE SECOND SCENARIO ENTAILS THE LOW CEILINGS HANGING AROUND AND EVENTUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
919 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015 WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PLATEAU VICINITY EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
ISOLATED COOLER SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BUT REMAINING LIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
505 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015 DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALLOWING SOME SOUTHEAST WINDS TO RETURN IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIDE INTO THE 50S TNITE IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT.
HIGH OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A SOUTH WIND INTO IOWA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
433 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN.
SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 50S INLAND. /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE TX HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected to prevail once again tonight, as an axis of high pressure continues to drift east across the region. Lows 30-35 should be common, but would not be surprised to see some areas dip into the 20s once again with the lower dew points in place. High pressure will dominate the weather one more day on Tuesday with dry and slightly warmer temps. High pressure will move east tomorrow evening and this will allow southerly winds to return and bring much warmer temps to the area for Wed, as well as bring an increase in low levels and sfc moisture to the CWA. Cyclonic flow will remain over the area as another shot of cooler air advects into the area end of the week.
637 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE N RRV AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. EXACTLY HOW TEMPS BEHAVE IN BETWEEN WILL DEPEND ON THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
529 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ AN UNIMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MO WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE IN PLACES AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE AL AND S MIDDLE TN MAY SEE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
/issued 254 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ An upper level trough is digging southward and moving eastward along the western conus. Temperatures are expected to warm up even further into the upper 70s across the Permian Basin on Tuesday as the previously mentioned upper trough moves closer to the region.
855 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TO A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT REVEALED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING OUT ACROSS MISSOURI. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAD MOVED INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER ON VETERANS DAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT PATCHY WORDING. AND WITH THE MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE WE ARE LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S.
/ISSUED 209 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFYING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A S/W RIDGE AND BY TUESDAY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BE A GOOD 10 KNOTS STRONGER THAN TODAY. WITH LEE TROUGHING REMAINING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT.
545 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TO A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY.
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH NW UT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THE SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPING AND DIGGING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WITH COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH FROM ABOUT CAG TO JUST WEST OF 4 CORNERS BY 18Z. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
Upper low moving off into Missouri, with weak ridging and warm temperatures over the state in its wake. Next robust upper trof is moving onshore the West Coast and impacts our area mid week. Would anticipate highs to be a few degrees warmer than today with strong warm advection somewhat tempered by early cloud cover.
629 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
1049 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TO A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY.
Local radar imagery shows a few isolated showers remaining north of the warm front.
339 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN.
THERE ARE THREE DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST.
307 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015 A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN IS IN STORE STARTING TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
833 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ALREADY INFILTRATING INTO THE PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE COAST AFTER DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING AND WEST TO NW WINDS WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST WI FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE UPPER LOW OVER IL SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE NRN OH VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 68 WEST 26 NORTH. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A WEAK COOL FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PANHANDLE MORPHS INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
STRONG CLOSED LOW IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY WILL TRACK TO LINCOLN COUNTY BY 10 AM TUESDAY, TAKING THE IDEAL PATH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST TOTALS, POTENTIALLY, OVER ONE FOOT, WILL RESIDE ACROSS RURAL WESTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY, AND RURAL NE NYE COUNTY, INCLUDING U. WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
757 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
1036 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TO A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 64 41 70 / 30 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 61 40 68 / 50 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 50 62 40 66 / 50 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 61 37 67 / 70 20 0 0.
512 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE US LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY MID LEVELS MEAN THAT THERE IS A BUST POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOST SUGGEST THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 20S.
THE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND WITH SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES UNDERNEATH THE VORT MAX NEAR THE COAST.
THE CWA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 18- 21Z. TO THE LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
238 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHI VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATKANTIC COAST TONIGHT. BROAD TROF OVER THE NEUS AND GREAT LAKES CONTS. PERHAPS DUE TO THE TERRAIN BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC TROF IN THAT AREA. SERIES OF WVS CONT TO MARCH EWRD THRU THE DEEPENING NEUS TROF. UPR TROF AND WEAK SFC BOUNDRIES CONTS A CHANCE OF SHWER SINTO FRI.
334 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH SOME COASTAL CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.
TO THE LOWER 80S. AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS LOOKS TO SWING SEWD THRU THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE RIDING SE THRU THE MEAN NW-SE FLOW BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A FORMING TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS THE TROF DROPS THRU ON ITS WAY TO FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VLY REGION FRI NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COON CONDITIONS.
656 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHI VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATKANTIC COAST TONIGHT. BROAD TROF OVER THE NEUS AND GREAT LAKES CONTS. PERHAPS DUE TO THE TERRAIN BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC TROF IN THAT AREA. SERIES OF WVS CONT TO MARCH EWRD THRU THE DEEPENING NEUS TROF. UPR TROF AND WEAK SFC BOUNDRIES CONTS A CHANCE OF SHWER SINTO FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S N TO AROUND 50 S.
409 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 WEATHER TODAY WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U. DRIVING A TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER LATE FRIDAY.
WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BUOYANT AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA- E RIDGE AXIS.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
351 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY. AND SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND TRAIL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEGUN PUMPING UP OVER THE WEST COAST FOR FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH STATE.
ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LATER ON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER. LATEST BRO RADAR INDICATES ONGOING CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-69C AND ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. H5 INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. BUT RIDGING IS NOT REALLY BUILDING BACK SOUTHWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER UNTIL THEN AS THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA WITH A WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AND TAKING AIM AT CENTRAL IL. WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NW MISSOURI TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE INFLUENCE THAT RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. MANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASING AND BACKING LOW LEVEL JET WITH TIME WILL GIVE THE WARM FRONT A PUSH INTO CENTRAL IL VERY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE HIGHEST AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FARTHER SOUTH (JUST NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR). THE TRAILING OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SETTING UP THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO AN ENHANCING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
BELIEVE THAT POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAILING THIS MORNINGS WAVE MEANS CLOUD COVER NEVER FULLY GOES AWAY AND A COMBINATION OF LIMITED CAPPING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE STORMS GETTING STRONG. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS INDUCED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
/ISSUED 144 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/ UPPER-RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER AS UPPER-TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION.
1208 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS SW AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PROVIDING SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTH BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER BEFORE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THAT WILL HELP BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THEREFORE THE HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR SOUTH BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
For the remainder of today, conditions should remain dry however, a cold front will be sinking slowly south across the CWA. Strong instability, along with steep lapse rates, and extremely moist conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will lead to severe potential. This precipitation will finally push south of the area by Friday night as a deepening upper level trough digs through the Upper Midwest and force the front south of the area. Conditions should be cooler on Friday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
331 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ENOUGH SFC HEATING OF THE DAY TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TO FORM CUMULUS IN THE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND AS IT DOES SO. BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN U.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND.
339 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST.
341 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF OHIO. WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
317 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH AROUND GALESBURG AND LACON TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-70. INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
250 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105. WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL PERSIST WITH A BROAD AND WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT HOW MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY FRONTAL POSITION. H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH TROUGH DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES EAST.
THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING (COLD FRONT. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO BRING AN END TO THE WEEK.
STAGNANT MID- LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AS LONG-AWAITED AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE GETS UNDERWAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROF AND LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGES FROM STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW. COLD FRONT REACHES NORTHERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
615 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY.
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015 (Today and Tonight) Very quiet weather with no precipitation expected over the next 24 hours as upper level ridging expands from the southwestern U.
111 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 18Z SFC DATA PLACES AN INFERRED LOW JUST EAST OF KOMA WITH A WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR KSTL. DEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS THROUGH THE REGION IN SHARPENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
325 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH STARTING LATE FRIDAY.
MUCH-ADVERTISED RIDGE IS FINALLY BUILDING IN DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS PROVIDING THE SYNOPTIC BACKDROP FOR THE SHORT TERM. BY TONIGHT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST WHILE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MID WEST.