Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly sunny and temperatures are warming into the 90s east of the nearly stalled out cold frontal boundary on stiff south-southwest breezes. West of the front, winds are out of the northwest and temperatures range from the low 70s to the upper 80s.
1116 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper ridge sits east of the forecast area today, centered over the mid-west/great lakes region. Upper trough is currently moving over The Rockies, and southwest flow sits aloft the FA. A surface cold front has made its way through the area this morning, and we will see cooler temperatures to start the work week.
Continued hot and humid with high pressure remaining in control. Models show a weak mid level short wave tracking west around the southern periphery of the high Tuesday. The combination of the short wave, instability and coastal convergence, will be conducive for convective development on Tuesday but the high pressure should keep the convection isolated.
The eastern Cu field should remain mostly inert this afternoon as the large upper ridge centered over Ark-La-Tex exerts enough subsidence to squash any rising convective towers. Shower activity should retreat back west to the higher terrain tonight and it will be mild across the forecast area again with some lingering cloud cover likely across the west. For Tuesday, it appears that the upper ridge will expand westward, and push the subtropical moisture plume farther from the area. Highs will range from the lower 90s in the far southwest Texas Panhandle to about 103 in the Rolling Plains.
20/18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD as high pressure persists ovr the FA. Today Through Tuesday Night High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the Natural State through the short term period. High pressure will likely be centered over AR the next couple of days keeping dewpoints relatively low compared to where they have been.
A low pressure system is creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across central into east Idaho. With the colder freezing and minus 20 levels, small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph are possible in thunderstorms. Overnight lows for Tuesday morning look chilly once again, but expect most areas in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley to stay well above freezing with the NBM showing less than a 5 percent chance of temps falling below 32 degrees. A weak upper trough will persist over the region for Tuesday which will keep highs below normal.
With relatively dry air in place across much of the region, temperatures will fall some overnight with lows Tuesday morning in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridge is centered over the region with mostly sunny skies and temps climbing into the 90s.
752 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) The heat has officially returned today with temperatures currently in the low 80s on the Plateau and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. However, it continues to be unusually dry in the low levels with dewpoints only in the 40s to low 50s, which is creating very low RH values down into the teens. With the airmass so hot and dry, heat index values are below the actual temperatures, aka it feels cooler than reality. H5 ridge centered near Memphis will begin strengthening and expanding tomorrow with heights rising aloft over Middle Tennessee, so Tuesday is expected to be several degrees warmer than today with highs around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s everywhere else.
625 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure ridging over the area will continue to bring dry and quiet weather to ENC early this week. Unsettled weather may return to the area mid to late week as troughing persists over the Southeast. Upper level ridging pattern begins to break down mid to late week, bringing a more unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.
920 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
1006 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front could then advance into or stall near the region late week into the weekend. Closed upper level high and a very sharp ridge axis extends from the Gulf up into the Great Lakes with the SE states sitting on the eastern periphery of the ridge, while a strong N-S oriented upper jet core noses down into the Carolinas. But with the increasing cloud cover, low temps should wind up a little warmer than last night, generally in the 60s inland to the lower to middle 70s along the coast. Aloft, the forecast area will be positioned between a large ridge over the southern and southeastern U. and a trough to the east.
An upper trough sliding east over 30 to 40 kts of 0-6 km shear and 500-1000 J/KG ML CAPE supports a mix of ordinary and multicell convection with perhaps a supercell or two.
An upper ridge will build over the region late in the week for sunny, and rather warm weather--especially over the weekend.
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected to dominate the short term period as the region remains under the influence of ridging aloft along with broad high pressure at the surface. Current surface analysis reveals the 1026 mb high pressure is centered just to our east over the Mid-Atlantic region, expanding across much of the eastern third of the CONUS. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed nicely into the mid to upper 80s so far, with a few locations expected to push into the lower 90s by mid-late afternoon. Satellite imagery indicates mostly clear skies across the region, with some passing mid-high clouds streaming over eastern KY keeping temperatures a touch cooler here. Expect seasonably warm temps then overnight, with lows in the lower to mid 60s for most into Tuesday morning.
714 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front could then advance into or stall near the region late week into the weekend. The high will continue to bring our area dry conditions and unseasonably low dew points. Expect minimums to range from around 60 degrees far inland, the mid 60s across most of our area, and the lower 70s at the beaches. Aloft, the forecast area will be positioned between a large ridge over the southern and southeastern U. and a trough to the east.
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 The upper level low across swrn WY featuring -20C h700mb air will lift northeast through MT tonight. The Recd jet will send a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The upper level low will cause modest cooling aloft across nwrn Nebraska with h700mb temps falling to around -10C. The upper low lifts into Canada during the day Tuesday and this should shunt the subtropical moisture plume south into KS.
1037 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Warmth and moisture will be on the rise through the midweek period with persistent ridge to the west. A highly amplified ridge across the MS valley today will help keep the column mostly dry with meager PWATs in place. Some mid/high clouds will likely continue to spill around the ridge axis during this time with partly cloudy skies prevailing - and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy skies at times. High temperatures will only be very slightly warmer on Tuesday compared to today. With mid to upper ridge just to the west, warming trend continues into mid week.
933 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Much warmer this evening compared to 24 hours ago with most locations and the min temp forecast tonight reflects that with overnight lows forecast to only fall into the upper 60s to the middle 70s.
Flanked by high- amplitude trough axes over the Mountain West and Canadian Maritimes/western Atlantic, the blocking upper-level ridge axis remains entrenched over the eastern half of the CONUS, extending from near the Hudson Bay south-southwest into the western Gulf of Mexico. Have accounted for this low-end potential in tomorrow afternoon's weather grids across our far southeastern counties.
951 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure ridging over the area will continue to bring dry and quiet weather to ENC early this week. Unsettled weather may return to the area mid to late week as troughing persists over the Southeast. Upper level ridging pattern begins to break down mid to late week, bringing a more unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Through Tuesday: Broad ridging will remain the primary influence across our area through tomorrow, maintaining mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. /DL/ A very large, anomalous 596dm upper ridge will be entrenched across the region, budging very little through the week. The upper ridge will weaken just a tad and shift west, becoming more centered over Texas late in the week and into the weekend.
High pressure will briefly return to Utah and southwest Wyoming on Tuesday, bringing a warming and drying trend.
/issued 334 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ A persistent and stout ridge aloft maintains its grip over the region today. The latest WV imagery shows considerable dry air aloft associated with the ridge has spread acrs much of our LA Parishes.
The trough has also brought much colder air, which has resulted in elevations above 8000 feet to see snow showers. As the trough lifts out, these showers and thunderstorms will weaken and end towards sunset.
The ridge that has dominated our recent weather continues to move east and out of the Upper Midwest. On the west side of this ridge has two impacts: this will be the peak of the heat wave and storms chances have increased. Storms are expected to fire up along vort maxes to our southwest and along a cold front slowly moving from the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota overnight. With this ridge overhead there is not great speed shear or even much directional shear across much of the forecast area.
Upper low propagates north of the region tomorrow, which should limit any impacts across our region. Wed will feature nothing but a (near) windless summer day with high temps near seasonal values from the upper 70s to mid 80s, before a series of troughs badgers the region with chances for tstms during the period from Thu through Sat. Main upper trough would look to be east of the area by Sun. Looking at temps, upper ridging is expected to redevelop in the Southern Plains, and likely develop its crest into the Northern Plains, but not nearly as amplified as the current upper ridge over the region. A dome of warmth underneath this ridge should reach into the Northern Plains by Thu/Fri, likely reintroducing temps into the 90s.
Expect this moisture to be accompanied by cooler temperatures and areas of breezy winds. An upper level trof passes across The Treasure State allowing moisture to blanket the surface. Expect some cooler temperatures and breezy winds. Behind this system, warmer air will gradually move into the area, resulting in a warming trend through midweek.
710 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Key Messages: - Record warm lows possible tonight - Hot and humid tomorrow with afternoon storm chances RECORD WARM LOWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT: Highly amplified large scale pattern over the CONUS will begin to breakdown as the longwave trough over the western U. The ridge will then flatten and become more zonal spreading across much of the CONUS. Ahead of the front tonight, the eastern edge of the low- level moisture transport gradient will approach allowing for some storm chances. As the cold front continues to propagate southeast across the forecast area tomorrow, locations in the southeastern half of the forecast area are forecast to remain cloud free (20. LOOKING AHEAD: Above average temperatures continue through the work week as the Upper Mississippi Valley stays on the warm side of broad, low amplitude ridging.
Reimer Upper trough moving through the region today will continue to bring areas of showers and thunderstorms through the evening. The upper trough will lift north and east of the area tonight, causing showers and thunderstorms to gradually decrease. Flow turns more zonal over the area on Tuesday as the aforementioned trough exits the region. Weather turns more unsettled by the end of the work week as a blocking pattern upstream puts the area under cyclonic northwest flow.
Cooler air has moved in so cancelled the heat headlines a little early. At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly sunny and temperatures are warming into the 90s east of the nearly stalled out cold frontal boundary on stiff south-southwest breezes. West of the front, winds are out of the northwest and temperatures range from the low 70s to the upper 80s.
Isolated showers in central Idaho will diminish and end this evening as an upper low exits the area to the northeast. Otherwise, dry conditions with mostly clear skies and light winds are anticipated through Tuesday as weak high pressure aloft develops across the region.
/22/ Through Tuesday: Broad ridging will remain the primary influence across our area through tomorrow, maintaining mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. /DL/ A very large, anomalous 596dm upper ridge will be entrenched across the region, budging very little through the week. The upper ridge will weaken just a tad and shift west, becoming more centered over Texas late in the week and into the weekend.
High temperatures will continue to run in the lower to mid 90s.
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Warmth and moisture will be on the rise through the midweek period with persistent ridge to the west. A highly amplified ridge across the MS valley today will help keep the column mostly dry with meager PWATs in place. Some mid/high clouds will likely continue to spill around the ridge axis during this time with partly cloudy skies prevailing - and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy skies at times. High temperatures will only be very slightly warmer on Tuesday compared to today. With mid to upper ridge just to the west, warming trend continues into mid week.
602 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level high pressure, currently over the southern Mississippi River Valley, will be the domineering force for the weather in West Central Texas over the short-term portion of the forecast. The upper high will begin to pivot clockwise and retrograde back towards eastern Texas overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with generally light winds out of the south to southeast under mostly clear skies. Otherwise, highs will be in the upper 90s to low 100s with no real strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. However, with the increased subsidence from both the surface and upper level low working against the convection, if these showers/storms do form, they are expected to remain very light and highly isolated in nature.
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High amplitude ridge axis is forecasted to topple/fold over rapidly across Southeast Michigan through 00Z this evening. A strong anticyclonic vorticity gyre is forecasted to roll across this evening increasing subsidence in the lowest 6.
Updated w/ a discussion for the 21/00Z TAFs VFR condns wl prevail through the fcst PD as high pressure remains settled to the E of the state.
535 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper level trough axis continues to lift northeast out of the region with a few showers/storms lingering over the Eastern Utah Mountains and along the Wyoming state line in Northwest Colorado. Pattern adjustment arrives on Tuesday as flow starts to bend back around the the south and southwest as a low pressure system sets up off the West Coast and upper level ridging builds across East Texas. Temperatures will be dependent on low level influx of moisture with the drier conditions allowing more significant warming (central and northern zones) with slightly cooler conditions where surface moisture improves.
Temperatures across the island chain sit in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms managed to fire along boundaries north of the Lower Keys, which triggered a 36 knot wind gust at Smith Shoal Light earlier this evening. High pressure over the southeastern states will traverse east and strengthen off of the Carolina Coast. East to southeast breezes will back to the northeast to north tonight and gradually freshen as high pressure builds and strengthens off of the Carolina Coast.
Cold front across western Dakota continues to move east through the evening and tonight, trailed by a mid level wave (currently across eastern WY/CO and western SD/NE). In this area through tonight, 0-6 km bulk shear values nearly parallel to the cold front above 40 kts is supportive of quick upscale growth. follows closer to the cold front motion than the mid level wave motion). Slightly cooler tomorrow, with highs in 80s to lower 90s. For mid week, dome of high pressure returns, with mid level flow becoming more zonal. Warming trend through mid week, with lower level flow beginning to shift more southerly and much warmer temperatures build in to the west ahead of the next wave rotating through the top of the ridge.
713 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure at the surface will maintain its hold for the next couple of days, while increasing aloft.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure entrenched across the Deep South. The lower RH values should still make for a fairly comfortable night and beginning to the day on Tuesday.
Mainly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid-60s by late tonight. Cold front arrives Tuesday night. An MCS across northern Michigan is currently weakening, but remnant cloud cover may spread southward along the eastern edge of the upper-level ridge. As the ridge builds eastward, upstream flow will weaken and cloud cover should gradually dissipate within large scale subsidence. Tuesday into Tuesday night Clear skies continue into Tuesday, with the axis of the ridge now overhead. Temperatures are expected to be much warmer as well, with highs in the mid 90s for most locations. Thankfully, the heat will be short-lived as a cold front arrives late Tuesday night.
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Dominant upper-level ridge will only continue to strength its grip on the region through the short-term as the center of the ridge axis shifts farther SW and anchors itself right over our CWA. Fortunately, dew points have held mainly in the 60s today although moisture is beginning to creep back northward from the Gulf as evidenced by the lower 70 dew points in parts of Deep East Texas.
There's a chance that some showers and thunderstorms will develop around the aerodromes on Tuesday as some deeper atmospheric moisture moves into the region, but with confidence in the timing and coverage still on the low side, have continued to include VCSH for now. Rain chances should wane pretty quickly after sunset tomorrow, as daytime heating is lost and the H25 ridge begins to re-assert itself, with the the aforementioned low moving inland to our south.
High pressure aloft building across northern California will result in increasingly hot interior temperatures through mid-week. High pressure will likely keep northwest California dry throughout the week, with plentiful sunshine. An upper trough of low pressure will weaken over the Western U. over the next couple of days as high pressure ridges across from the E Pacific to another high over the S MS valley.
Today's high temperatures were able to climb into the low 100s for most, and tomorrow should be no different.
Another quiet TAF period with high pressure still in control. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 69 99 74 98 / 0 0 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 67 97 72 95 / 0 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 96 67 98 72 95 / 0 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 61 94 68 91 / 0 0 10 20 30.
The blocking pattern keeping us dry for the next few days will break down towards the end of the week, allowing for more typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Upper ridge centered across the Mississippi Valley with trough off New England. Water vapor showing short wave trough over VA. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday mid 90s. High pressure center will have moved west over the south Central US that morning with a upper level trough to our east.
Conditions continue to be favorable for decent ridge valley temperature split tonight. An upper low/trough currently over the northern Rockies and northern plains will move east during the period, running across the northern side of the ridge and working to flatten it. Without an influx of cool air, our air mass will continue modify and heat up under the ridging aloft. Temperatures for Wednesday are expected to be remain in the low to mid-90s as high pressure remains overhead.
South of the front temperatures were still in the lower 80s, but the cooler air was in sight with lower 60s in the Sandhills. This will leave most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa in a post frontal regime today, with northeast winds and slightly cooler temperatures (afternoon highs 5-10 degrees cooler) compared to yesterday.
145 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure at the surface will maintain its hold for the next couple of days, while increasing aloft. Humidity ticks upward late tonight into Tuesday with lows about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning, with 50s for most. Upper low off the mid-Atlantic/northeast coast could send a few more clouds across the piedmont, but overall seeing more sun than clouds. The western trough will recede to the north as it folds into a low pressure system tracking east across Canada. The front associated with this low will sag south through the weakened omega- block, serving as an ignition point for storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
So, while temperatures have been and will continue to be on the hot side, drier air aloft (as per the strong persistent mid/upper ridge over the region) mixing down during the afternoon have and will con- tinue to keep SE TX heat index values just below Advisory criteria.
Upper ridge located over the Ozarks and the Mississippi valley will continue to gradually break down today. As the front pushes south, much cooler air will also move into the area for Sun and Mon.
437 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will cover the area today.
1228 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level high pressure, currently over the southern Mississippi River Valley, will be the domineering force for the weather in West Central Texas over the short-term portion of the forecast. The upper high will begin to pivot clockwise and retrograde back towards eastern Texas overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with generally light winds out of the south to southeast under mostly clear skies. Otherwise, highs will be in the upper 90s to low 100s with no real strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. However, with the increased subsidence from both the surface and upper level low working against the convection, if these showers/storms do form, they are expected to remain very light and highly isolated in nature.
251 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Expect another sunny day today with mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Latest surface analysis reveals expansive high pressure across the eastern half of the US with a 1025mb center over WV. 21/00Z upper air analysis shows robust ridging across much of the central CONUS with a 596dm dome of high pressure over the MS Valley. An upper level trough over Central Canada will attempt to break down the persistent omega block. In this attempt, a cold front will push into the area Wednesday afternoon. The storms and cold front will push through the region into the evening hours, before the front stalls just south of the KY border.
Upper air models show the upper Low situated over the MT/ND border. Today, the upper low will slide northeast into MB, and upper flow will become quasi-zonal through Wednesday. With this cooler drier air moving in, expect mostly dry conditions to continue through the work week.