Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
602 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 The closed low center over LA today will gradually work its way eastward through Arizona and into New Mexico over the next 24 hours leaving western Colorado and eastern Utah in a bit of a col. Anticipating precipitation will stay in the mountains for the most part, with forecast dewpoints not really getting out of the teens during the trough passage. The Highway 160 corridor across SW Colorado is the most likely valley area to receive precipitation overnight tonight through Wednesday morning, but the threat looks to be short-lived and over by the early afternoon.
An upper level trough is expected to track through this evening, bringing with it a decent chance to see some rain showers, especially in far northeastern Wisconsin. Expect temperatures to stay high enough that the majority of this will remain rain, but there is a slight chance to see some freezing light drizzle or a few snowflakes on the back end of this event as the cold air follows behind the trough. Kept overnight temperatures a touch warmer across the Fox Valley and the north, given the cold bias the past couple days. Dry conditions will return Wednesday and last into the evening but temperatures are expected to be cooler than they were today, with highs in the lower to middle 40s.
The pressure gradient will continue to increase across the lower Texas coast tonight into Wednesday but winds should diminish tonight as mixing decreases with the loss of diurnal heating. Winds should diminish Wed evening as the low level jet moves eastward and the pressure gradient weakens across the lower TX coast Wed night as a weak cold front moves into the western portions of the CWA late Wed night. Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm across the area tonight through Wednesday with slightly cooler air filtering into the Rio Grande valley late Wed night.
This ridge is expected to weaken and shift further east into the Western Atlantic through tonight. This will allow a warm front in Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana to push north and eastward into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi tonight. As the warm front pushes into Mississippi, we will get increasing cloudiness and areas of rain develop and push into Central Alabama from the west with isentropic lift.
641 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will move offshore tonight through the day on Wednesday. A cold front will then move southeast through the region tomorrow night.
704 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will drift east tonight.
347 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 The closed low center over LA today will gradually work its way eastward through Arizona and into New Mexico over the next 24 hours leaving western Colorado and eastern Utah in a bit of a col. Anticipating precipitation will stay in the mountains for the most part, with forecast dewpoints not really getting out of the teens during the trough passage. The Highway 160 corridor across SW Colorado is the most likely valley area to receive precipitation overnight tonight through Wednesday morning, but the threat looks to be short-lived and over by the early afternoon.
Cooler temperatures will also accompany the storm, especially in it's wake Wednesday and Wednesday night. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward. That said, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going for the higher valley locations like Oracle, Sonoita, Bisbee, and Sierra Vista as well as for the mountains.
920 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 Sfc analysis shows strong high pressure over eastern NC/VA at 1029 mb with broad low level northeast flow acorss the ern forecast area. warmer air will aid in lifting cigs to above VFR after 14-15z with SSI perhaps still seeing MVFR cigs until early aftn.
405 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the area, with high pressure centered to the northeast of the region. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the northern US, with low pressure located across southern CA.
A low pressure will move east of the area tonight resulting in a clearing and drying trend through Wednesday.
547 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 Main concern in the short term periods is the threat for stratus, some potentially dense fog, along with a chance for freezing drizzle in some locations tonight into tomorrow. By this evening, the lowest 1500-2000 feet look to be saturated, putting all three potentially into play, particularly stratus and fog. Stratus is expected to linger through much of the day Wednesday until the next wave helps to dry out the lower levels a bit. That next wave arrives Wednesday night and it continues to look like it will not bring much notable weather to our CWA, aside from continuing chances for freezing drizzle and flurries in northwest Iowa.
Winds are expected to increase once more as a Pacific Cold Front moves across the region just after daybreak Wednesday. An arctic cold front diving south out of Kansas and Colorado should arrive at KGUY AFT 28/19Z with winds veering to the north at 15 to 25 kts. Cold front hangs up across the northern portions of the forecast area through the day Wednesday before finally surging south across the remainder of the Panhandles by Wednesday evening.
626 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure over the region will move off the coast Wednesday morning. A weak warm front moving north through the region Wednesday will provide a chance of light rain.
/issued 309 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018/ Our wind-maker for tomorrow is still presenting as a closed low over southern CA this afternoon, though, it is showing signs it will be opening as it continues it west-southwestward trek. The lowest RH values will actually be displaced from the highest winds. Once this upper trough passes, a weak front will be dragged through the region and cool NW flow will settle in for the first day of March.
Sfc flow will continue veering to the west and increase over the next 24 hours as an upper-lvl trough approaches West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The latest NAM puts the low-lvl speed max over the Permian Basin/Stockton Plateau at 00Z Thu, so winds at KMAF/KFST/KPEQ will actually increase into the evening hours. Our main concern for Wed in the potential for windy-very windy conditions as the strong trough moves very near the area and an assocd Pacific cold front surges hard east.
High pressure to the north of Florida this evening will shift east and south late in the week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast early in the forecast period. However, there are low chances for some showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday as the ridge aloft breaks down.
945 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
709 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Under high pressure and dry northwest upper level flow, VFR conditions are expected for the entirety of the TAF period.
Today Through Tuesday Night Most locations this morning are close to, or maybe slightly cooler than this time yesterday morning. Driving this cooler weather is upper level northwesterly flow, with an upper ridge axis out west and a trough in the east.
Latest satellite/radar mosaic shows two MCVs -- one in southwest Kansas just west of Dodge City, and a more well-defined one moving off the Caprock region onto the low rolling plains, near Floydada. We will keep the highest POPs late today and tonight across the southwest-third or so of our CWA.
Today through Tuesday night: A flat ridge of high pressure shows gradual amplification through this time interval allowing for continued dry forecast with a gradual warming trend. Very weak upper level disturbances overtopping the ridge will allow for bouts of increased surface winds and gust at times. Heat trof over Oregon allows for a more northerly component of wind to linger on for Tuesday into Tuesday night.
High pressure remains anchored to our east. With upper ridging moving in, most of the area will remain dry today, however to the east of the weak wave, BUFKIT profiles suggest just enough instability that daytime heating could still spark a weak storm or two. Freezing levels begin falling in the wake of the front, from 14kft down to around 11kft, so while gusty winds will be the main threat with any pulse convection, cant rule out some small hail under this regime.
1049 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A weak cold front will drop south through the region today and will stall offshore overnight. Weak high pressure will build over the area on Tuesday and will shift offshore Tuesday night.
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A quiet morning across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure at the surface helping to promote a mostly clear sky and dry conditions across the region today. The upper ridge starts to break down tonight with any afternoon cumulus dissipating with sunset. High level clouds should remain which will keep lows a bit warmer than previous nights, in the mid to upper 60s. This won't have too much of an impact on highs, maybe a deg cooler than what is forecast for today (Monday).
Another tranquil day expected across the Tennessee Valley as an upper ridge remains in control of the local weather. Should see slightly more clouds today as cirrus clouds are going to be streaming southeast along the upper ridge. The upper ridge starts to break down tonight with any afternoon cumulus dissipating with sunset. High level clouds should remain which will keep lows a bit warmer than previous nights, in the mid to upper 60s. This won't have too much of an impact on highs, maybe a deg cooler than what is forecast for today (Monday).
A couple thunderstorms persist across Laramie County at this hour ahead of the trough. Cannot rule out a few showers late tonight across Converse/Niobrara Counties as a vort max rides the top of the building ridge and over Wyoming.
1129 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Update An area of high pressure will remain over the region today through Tuesday providing most regions with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures.
/Issued 437 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ Similar to this time yesterday, the High Plains are active with weakening storms across southwest KS.
Made some minor adjustments to the forecast to show these slightly cooler temperatures.
Building high pressure over the state will result in a warming trend through midweek.
Drying conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday as the upper ridge over over Nevada and Utah produce a dry northwesterly flow at mid levels.
Otherwise, drier air inland should preclude any rain development today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Upper ridge is still expected to retreat westward allowing a large broad trof to take shape over the eastern half of the country. High pressure lingering over the northern MS river valley will help keep these generally light E/NE winds in the forecast through at least late Tue. As the high moves off further east. Otherwise a series of weak upper level disturbances moving in from NW during the remainder of the week and then a possible cold front approaching this upcoming weekend will help produce periods of un- settled weather across the marine waters these next several days. 41 Generally VFR conditions expected as light NE winds prevail in the wake of the cold front.
More efficient heating due to the drier airmass help to counter-balance the cooler airmass, allowing daytime highs to rise to around seasonal (upper 80s along the coast to low 90s inland). Tonight, the dry airmass works with the cooler airmass to allow temps to fall to sell below seasonal levels. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s along the immediate coast, expected.
Our inverted trough/deformation area is in nearly the same position as 24 hours ago. A ridge builds to our northwest through the remainder of this week as the inverted trough exits to the west. It is possible that the ridge will be strong enough to start to suppress convection, especially to the north, over time. Scattered TSRA will redevelop this afternoon, initially over the mountains and then spreading into the lower elevations.
The warmest day of this string of heat is expected with additional boost just ahead of approaching cold front. SFC winds will become southwest and mix down adiabatically from near 850mb across E ND ahead of the front helping temps reach into the low 90s in the DVL Basin and across the northern and central Red River Valley. A bit cooler conditions to the southeast with mid and upper 80s expected across west central MN. Cold front will push into the NW portion of the area between 4 and 7pm initiating thunderstorms within a narrow axis of instability that pools along the boundary. Temperatures will peak in the 80s, 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Monday.
High pressure at the surface centered over northern IL will keep a northeast to east wind resulting in little change in temperature.
Otherwise, temperatures as of 2 am ranged from 60 to 70 degrees with dew points in the lower 60s. For today, will be watching that mid-level trough/wave move across southern MN into eastern IA. Steepening lapse rates associated with the trough/colder air aloft expected to produce MUCAPE values in the 1000-1500J/Kg range by this afternoon with very weak bulk shear. So, isolated to scattered showers and pulse type thunderstorms expected this afternoon as surface temperatures heat up into the lower/middle 80s along with dew points in the middle 60s. Attention then turns to an incoming cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: The forecast area will remain under northwest flow aloft and the influence of high pressure at the surface centered north of the region. Flow in the upper levels will remain from the NW on Tuesday over the ArkLaMiss as a steep, anomalous ridge builds over the western CONUS and troughing occurs in the east.
1046 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure with cooler and drier air prevails through mid week.
The ridge over the west coast will be unusually strong, which will intern provide record heat along the west coast. Meanwhile, we will be within northwest flow in between the upper ridge to the west and a trough in the eastern United States.
1258 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A broad region of high pressure will remain over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today and tonight. Weak cold front/narrow moisture axis (PW values around 1.
958 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Fair weather with below normal temperatures and humidity will prevail the next few days as Canadian high pressure works into the region.
/Issued 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ Water vapor analysis at 07z reveals the persistent ridge in place over the Western US into the Southern Plains. Sfc analysis reveals a broad area of high pressure from the Plains to East Coast and a cold front draped across central FL west through the Gulf and into southern TX.
836 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable weather through early this week.
High pressure in the mid and upper levels will maintain a dry northerly flow keeping any convective development in check. /issued 510 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ A rather nice change to the weather this morning as the latest cool front has dropped temperatures into the lower 70s and the dew points into the upper 60s.
Our inverted trough/deformation area is in nearly the same position as 24 hours ago. A ridge builds to our northwest through the remainder of this week as the inverted trough exits to the west. It is possible that the ridge will be strong enough to start to suppress convection, especially to the north, over time. Scattered TSRA will redevelop late this morning and afternoon, initially over the mountains and then spreading into the lower elevations.
/issued 414 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ Cool front has moved well offshore with longwave troughing holding cooler airmass in place.
mostly in the low 60s. A strong ridge will build along the West Coast. but it will translate to a deepening trough over the Eastern half of the US keeping us seasonably cool.
Very hot and dry conditions for interior locations, as a strong ridge of high pressure presides over the West Coast throughout the week. The hot weather is brought to you by a strong ridge of high pressure settling over the West Coast of North America. This upper level ridge is enhanced by the remnant of tropical storms Irwin and Hilary. These tropical systems travel on the west side of this ridge, and transport additional subtropical heating to enhance the ridging.
649 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight and Tuesday.
The storms are slowly moving in a mostly eastward direction thanks to the center of an upper high being situated to our south. How far the line will get before it falls apart is unknown as even the higher res models have have trouble lately with storm evolution. Rain chances will continue today and tomorrow as the upper high continues on a westward trek.
The summertime ridge was centered over southwest Texas and is expected to shift west toward the Great Basin.
A cold front analyzed near the MT/Canadian border at 07Z will slide slowly S into the forecast area today, reaching the northern sections between 18Z and 21Z. Models also brought in a reinforcing cold front from the N Tue. will be cooler with higher humidities.
1051 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure over the Mid Mississippi River valley will slowly slide to the east. Kelly Little change in the forecast as high pressure over the Mid Mississippi River valley is responsible for the unseasonably cool and dry weather over the area. Northwest flow aloft is being driven by a trough over the northeastern US and ridge covering most of the western part of the country. The combination of light east to northeasterly flow and clear skies in complex terrain will likely drive temperatures a couple of degrees cooler over areas of southeast Missouri and the Ozark valleys tonight.
Overnight the low center is forecast to emerge off of the Treasure Coast and continue a NERLY track from here and gradually regain strength during the day on Tue as it moves away from ECFL. This flow partially provided by the clockwise circulation around a large, broad high pressure area centered across the Midwest. Must caution to mariners due to the higher precip chances southward from the Cape that convective winds will frequently disrupt both wind direction/wind speeds thru the day/night.
Cloud cover will continue to build in through the morning, and highs today will be similar to those of yesterday, reaching into the low 80s. Dewpoints in the low 60s this afternoon will keep conditions feeling pleasant and unseasonable. The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the western US.
Interesting setup early this morning with low pressure, now TD #6, off the west coast of the Tampa Bay area with a stationary front extending from it near the Interstate 4 corridor. Widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms are occurring from just north of stalled boundary southward and this will continue through the morning hours as the low drifts slowly eastward toward the coast. System is forecast by the hi-res models to move across Tampa Bay this morning and eventually into the interior counties this afternoon with the highest rain chances south and east of the system generally south of Interstate 4.
High pressure centered to our north is keeping a dry, cooler-than-normal air mass locked in over Middle Tennessee today.
1030 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon through early tonight.
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NORTH WINDS OF 15 A developing northwest flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures to Montana over the next few days.
846 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A quick look at thickness changes from yesterday to today would indicate highs in a few spots a degree or two warmer than in the previous forecast, so made those changes in the gridded forecast.
1234 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Hydro An area of high pressure will remain over the region today through Tuesday providing most regions with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures.
HRRR and HRRRX showing the lowest storm coverage seen in well over a week this afternoon. Drying conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday as the upper ridge over over Nevada and Utah produce a dry northwesterly flow at mid levels.
1155 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure over the Mid Mississippi River valley will slowly slide to the east. Kelly Little change in the forecast as high pressure over the Mid Mississippi River valley is responsible for the unseasonably cool and dry weather over the area. Northwest flow aloft is being driven by a trough over the northeastern US and ridge covering most of the western part of the country. The combination of light east to northeasterly flow and clear skies in complex terrain will likely drive temperatures a couple of degrees cooler over areas of southeast Missouri and the Ozark valleys tonight.
Ridge of high pressure will be anchored over the Great Basin through the work week with north to northwest flow aloft over NM. This will allow short wave troughs to move southeast into the central plains states, and associated cold fronts to drop into eastern NM, and perhaps farther west.
1155 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable weather through Tuesday.
- Izzi 241 AM CDT On Tuesday, GFS is fairly bullish in the coverage of convective QPF over much of IL, though there seems to be little to trigger convection other than slight baggy trough aloft.
High temperatures will be in the upper 80s, but with dewpoints crashing into the low to mid 60s, it will be noticeably less humid area-wide today compared to recent days.
729 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A weak cold front will drop south through the region today and will stall offshore overnight. Weak high pressure will build over the area on Tuesday and will shift offshore Tuesday night.
/Today through Tonight/ Overall similar conditions expected today from previous days with high pressure still in control of the region. Cooler air in place, with some moderation late today.
Beyond today and tonight, we should manage to keep enough moisture around for storms, but with the major high influence shifting back westward as a trough develops through most of the east we may see a less favorable flow and warming mid levels Tuesday.
A quick look at thickness changes from yesterday to today would indicate highs in a few spots a degree or two warmer than in the previous forecast, so made those changes in the gridded forecast.
WV imagery indicates an upper level high pressure center located across southeast New Mexico and west Texas with a weak westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, broad area of high pressure extends from the Upper Midwest southwest into eastern Kansas. The biggest event will be the unseasonably deep upper level trough that will move into the midwest/Great Lakes area by mid week.
We will keep the highest POPs late today and tonight across the southwest-third or so of our CWA.
Convection developing over the higher terrain and mountains of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado will propagate southeastward into the Panhandles during the afternoon and nighttime hours.
An upper trough crossing Quebec will push a weak cold front southward into upstate NY. Latest guidance suggests isolated convection will develop in vicinity the Lower Lakes which may drift over the northern tier of central PA during the afternoon/ early evening. Humidity will slowly increase today and Tuesday, and will become noticeable as sfc dewpoints rise into the lower 60s for most by this evening. and to the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday.
In the upper levels the ridging over our area begins to break down as a pieces of energy moves south on the east side of the ridge.
Embedded within the ridge is a weak, slow-moving trough setting off storms over SD.
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon through early tonight.