Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm sector destabilization had increased the coverage east of a surface pressure trof oriented along the MS River. For this evening, expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to slowly decrease, focused mainly east of the weak surface pressure trof lifting through west TN. Additional showers and perhaps an elevated thunderstorm or two will be possible overnight ahead of a 700 mb trof axis rotating through. Additional showers will likely develop to the north and east of Memphis Thursday, aided by diurnal heating and cooler temps aloft, near the base of the upper trof.
A lake breeze will likely develop by mid-morning but stall over the Chicago Suburbs by mid-afternoon, keeping locations closer to the lake in the lower 70s.
As it continues its northeastward track this afternoon and evening, it will lift the eastward extending warm front currently located over the TN Valley northward along the Ohio River. This will place our CWA within the warm sector of the low pressure system, with sfc temps in the low to mid 70s expected along with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Another round of showers and some storms come tomorrow afternoon as diurnal heating regenerates the cold front sitting across the region.
1148 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A positively tilted trough will slowly drift east across the area today, gradually turning low level winds to a more westerly direction.
105 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Water vapor show massive positively titled upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, trof had nudged through much of south central SD with light northerly flow across most the CWFA.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper trough remains over Texas, and little change in the pattern is expected through Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with highs on Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
248 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 (Issued 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021) Tonight through Thursday Night: A weak trough will be moving through the region today, however, kept the forecast dry due to the limited moisture across southern Wisconsin.
A lake breeze will likely develop by mid-morning but stall over the Chicago Suburbs by mid-afternoon, keeping locations closer to the lake in the lower 70s. A large ridge will build from the Plains into the Great Lakes region this weekend allowing for dry weather and slowly increasing temperatures.
There may be a resurgence of mostly shower activity late tonight over parts of the region as a mid level trof approaches. Thu will be a little warmer than today, with decreasing cloudiness from the west. The mid level trof axis will be over our region by afternoon, thus winds aloft will be weaker than today. Though highs Fri will be in the lower to middle 80s, dewpoints will remain in the 60s, which will greatly limit any heat index effects. Our area will be on the backside of this high with southerly flow becoming firmly established.
A strong upper ridge residing over the area today will result in even warmer temperatures compared to yesterday.
307 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central U. and ridging over the western states. Isolated showers have developed near the axis of this upper trough. Surface obs showed a weak pattern with high pressure over the central plains. The surface pattern is progged to remain under the influence of weak high pressure. So with a good setup for radiational cooling, think the low lying areas close to moisture sources like rivers are most likely to have some fog redevelop.
A deep upper level trough extends from the Central Plains to the northern Baja Peninsula this afternoon with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface warm, moist air remains in place with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. The southern part of the upper trough will close off during the next 12 to 24 hours and drift across northern Mexico.
Otherwise, the lingering upper trof over the area the past few days will shift east on Thursday.
Weak low pressure over northern North Dakota with an even weaker upper level reflection is producing a few clouds and showers over MN and eastern South Dakota early this Wednesday morning. High pressure remains over Iowa aloft, while a surface reflection stretches east into Michigan at this time. Across this area, forcing is a bit deeper and a general area of rain and some thunderstorms continues across the lower Ohio River Valley into the Gulf States. Rather than blanket the area with low PoPs today, will leave out for now due to the low overall chances for a shower at any given location.
253 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Water vapor imagery indicated upper ridge axis pushing into the inner Rockies across Idaho and down into Nevada. Airmass under the ridge is quite warm with mid level temps only reaching these extremes about once every 5-10 years for this time of year.
Ahead of the trough, 800 j/kg of surface based cape has developed ahead of an alto-stratus cloud deck, which contributed to convective clouds and isolated showers and storms. Forecast moisture convergence points towards areas north of HWY 29 from Green Bay to Wausau should see the highest coverage of thunderstorms. High temperatures will be warmer than today and range from the upper 70s to middle 80s. The upper trough will depart the area Thursday night and instability will wane with the loss of daytime heating. This will lead to mostly sunny conditions along with a warmer and more humid airmass.
125 PM PDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure will move southward across the area continuing the warming trend today with the marine layer becoming shallower and coastal low clouds not spreading as far into the valleys.
An upper level trough remains anchored west of the area this afternoon while a low level disturbance moves northward west of the area. Convergence at the nose of a low level jet associated with the low level disturbance has helped enhance widespread rain showers this afternoon. Southerly flow continues and lows drop into the lower 60s. The base of the aforementioned upper level trough shifts through the area during the day on Thursday. DCVA attributed to the trough is expected to peak during the afternoon hours and spawn showers/thunderstorms from the late morning through the late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms rapidly end Thursday evening due to instability dying off and the upper level trough shifting east.
222 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 GOES water vapor imagery/RAP 500 mb analysis early this afternoon showed longwave ridging centered over the western US with downstream northwest flow aloft into the Upper Midwest. As the western ridge continues to gradually build eastward, the warming trend will continue on Thursday with highs generally expected to reach the 80s over the area. The heat builds in for the weekend as the 500mb ridge over the Northern Plains shifts eastward.
356 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Low pressure over western Kentucky will continue northeast tonight and move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
The bulk of the activity will push off the plateau early Thursday morning, but we will still be stuck in the troughing pattern. Scattered showers and storms will develop again as the main trough axis finally swings through the area. Behind the trough axis, models show some clearing late Thursday night which could allow areas of fog to develop with the copious amount of low level moisture.
1145 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA is underneath the base of an upper air trough with an eastward moving upper air ridge over the western CONUS.
425 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A warm front will lift north through the area late this afternoon through tonight.
At the surface, a washed-out frontal boundary is located just northwest of the the CWA, while aloft, a deepening trough is situated across the center of the country from the Great Lakes to Texas. Upper level disturbances rotating around the base of this trough, in combination with the moist airmass overhead and the lingering surface boundary have provided another day of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area.
Moisture is expected to increase through late week as an upper trough approaches from the west. High temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 80s across the forecast area. Upper trough moves further east into the Ohio Valley on Thursday with moist southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Temperatures on Thursday could be challenging given timing of convection and overall cloud cover but expect highs in the lower to mid 80s with warmest temperatures in the CSRA.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over Kansas. For the rest of today, it is possible a couple showers or storms develop along the periphery of the high pressure system, mainly east of Highway 25. However, with high pressure in place, precipitation seems unlikely. Temperatures should be warmer tonight, only falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Warmer temperatures also appear likely with the current forecast calling for afternoon highs in the 80s.
414 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A warm front will lift north through the area late this afternoon through tonight.
Scattered cumulus has begun to develop across the higher terrain and near MAF and will further develop later this afternoon across all TAF sites. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain this afternoon and move east. /issued 324 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/ The unseasonably cool, unsettled weather pattern will continue across the region today, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday, but still below normal for this time of year.
Kavinsky (Issued 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021) Tonight through Thursday Night: A weak trough will be moving through the region today, however, kept the forecast dry due to the limited moisture across southern Wisconsin.
/EC/ An upper level trough centered across the plains with an associated frontal boundary has brought the ArkLaMiss a very moist set-up. By tomorrow, the upper-level trough will swing across the Mid and Deep South however, rain and storm chances will be confined to the south and some parts of the east as the previous mentioned boundary pushes through the region. /JNE/ For the Thu Night to Wed period our region will continue to see the general flow regime featuring "cut off" energy and slow evolution before E conus ridging builds. Taking a closer look, the "cut off" upper low pattern continues to build support from the overall guidance. This will have some impact on temps and the warmer trend is still supported.
Aloft, trough stretching from the Great Lakes southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains will shift into the eastern CONUS by late Thursday night. At the surface, a wave of low pressure over southern IL will continue to track northeast, first lifting a warm front north of eastern Kentucky tonight and then pull a cold front through the area Thursday night.
A strong ridge of high pressure with unseasonably warm air will result in near record temperatures across much of the Northern Rockies. Some valley locations, especially the in the lower hells canyon in Idaho will approach the 100 degree mark.
Milder temperatures prevail as high pressure moves eastward. Marine influence will be enhanced by a passing cold front later tonight. A weakening ridge allows cooler temperatures and a quicker onset of stratus this evening. Interior temperatures are also milder as troughing interrupts the high pressure ridging over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will build again tonight and into Thursday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the greatest risk focused in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Any showers that reach the Lower Susq Valley may not arrive until late at night. Mainly cloudy skies and increased low level moisture will result in an relatively mild night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s over the northern mountains, to the ow 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. The highest POPs should be during the evening in vicinity of the cold front across the northwest mountains.
Overnight mins will drop to seasonably cool levels, with a few high mountain locations dropping to near freezing by early Thu morning. Max temps will creep upward another few degf as mid levels warm, with 70s and 80s widespread across the lower elevations in the afternoon.
527 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Afternoon satellite imagery reveals a scattered to broken deck of cumulus has developed across the higher terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado. This is in response to a weak vort max spinning along the eastern periphery of a stout mid-level ridge located over the Great Basin. Looking at BUFKIT forecast soundings, the low levels still appear fairly dry and deep inverted V signatures are quite prevalent. Outside of the high elevations in southwest Colorado, not anticipating much in the way of QPF. In the end, the impacts will be minimal as most QPF will be confined to the higher elevations of the San Juans with very little reaching the ground in the lower valleys.
A broad upper level trough will gradually shift into the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and result in a cooling trend through that time and a chance of light rain this weekend.
As the low pulls off to the northeast, a surface boundary will drag across the mid state overnight, with additional showers and perhaps a storm or two expected with its passage.
Should see a break in activity this evening as storms decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating; however, a disturbance bordering a closed low will continue to drift east towards the state overnight tonight, providing the opportunity for isolated overnight convective development. As far as Thursday is concerned, am leaning more towards the HRRR as it has initialized fairly well with this afternoon's convection, though majority of the models are in agreement that the atmosphere will be quick to destabilize as daytime temperatures increase and the closed low moves closer to the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Thursday with lows in the 70s tonight and tomorrow night.
505 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Water vapor show massive positively titled upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, trof had nudged through much of south central SD with light northerly flow across most the CWFA.
With sufficient heat and moisture in the lower boundary layer, overnight convection is certainly possible.
1046 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday ahead of a cold front.
858 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A warm front will lift north across the area tonight.
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 GOES water vapor imagery/RAP 500 mb analysis early this afternoon showed longwave ridging centered over the western US with downstream northwest flow aloft into the Upper Midwest. As the western ridge continues to gradually build eastward, the warming trend will continue on Thursday with highs generally expected to reach the 80s over the area. The heat builds in for the weekend as the 500mb ridge over the Northern Plains shifts eastward.
More moisture and cooler temperatures aloft tomorrow will result in more instability available for possibly stronger storms. High pressure NE of the region will promote SE onshore flow, already raising PWAT levels from the morning Jax sounding to 1. Lows tonight will be warmest at the coast in the low 70s and the upper 60s inland.
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 (This evening through Thursday) An upper trough remains over Texas, and little change in the pattern is expected through Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with highs on Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The ridge over the area that has been responsible for the warm and dry conditions will begin to dampen and slide east into Thursday.
/Issued 317 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021/ Latest surface analysis shows near stationary front draped over the the mid GA region with a mid level/upper level trough back to the west over the Ozarks. This trough expected to increase PoP chances moving into tonight as isentropic lift works in tandem with waves within the flow, primarily across N and NW GA. Current models have MU/SBCape values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range across most of the area, this in tandem with slightly lower bulk shear values 20-25kt could lead to isolated damage winds as the weak surface cold front pushes through the area. In the wake of the eastward moving upper trough.
Strong high pressure will remain over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the end of the work week, resulting in record breaking high temperatures. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the weekend, though temperatures will remain well above normal. High pressure is centered over the Great Basin this evening, resulting in dry and unseasonably warm conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming. A bit of cumulus has developed over some of the higher terrain but will tend to dissipate after sunset. Maxes today ran around 10F above seasonal normals, with highs 15-20F above seasonal normals by tomorrow afternoon as the ridge continues east and moves overhead.
525 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Current satellite imagery shows fair weather cumulus this afternoon across the region with peak heating as upper level ridge continues to build in place. H5 heights continue to rise as the ridge axis remains positioned farther west.
629 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High clouds have moved into the area this evening, with temperatures generally remaining in the lower to middle 80s. Winds are slowly shifting to the northwest following a trough passage. An upper ridge continues to build into western North Dakota and conditions remain fairly dry.
20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central U. and ridging over the western states. Isolated showers have developed near the axis of this upper trough. Surface obs showed a weak pattern with high pressure over the central plains. The surface pattern is progged to remain under the influence of weak high pressure. So with a good setup for radiational cooling, think the low lying areas close to moisture sources like rivers are most likely to have some fog redevelop.
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the greatest risk focused in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Any showers that reach the Lower Susq Valley may not arrive until late at night. Mainly cloudy skies and increased low level moisture will result in an relatively mild night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s over the northern mountains, to the low 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. The highest POPs should be during the evening in vicinity of the cold front across the northwest mountains.
758 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Broad high pressure aloft across much of the Western U. Some cumulus has developed over the northern plains near the border as the higher clouds cleared, and this will likely continue as well. The upper level ridge will be in place across the western U. S with eastern Colorado on the east side of the ridge axis.
344 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Today and tonight: A weak front remains stalled across the area this morning, delineating drier conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across north LA/AR/northwest MS from a more moist airmass with isolated showers, low clouds, and patchy fog extending from central LA through south and east MS. In addition, dewpoints will range from the lower 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south.
Due to the lower POPs and less cloud cover. Temps will be a bit warmer.
Even with the cloud cover in place this morning, think much of the area will be primed for an additional round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms later today as an upper-trough slowly moves eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Storms will gradually wane in coverage and intensity late in the day as the trough and its associated front begin to shift off to the east. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening in wake of the passage of an upper trough and weak cold front. However, these clouds should dissipate by the late morning on Friday as high pressure attempts to build into the region from the north. Despite the northerly flow, ample sunshine in the afternoon should allow temperatures to warm back into the low to mid 80s.
1023 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 GOES water vapor imagery/RAP 500 mb analysis early this afternoon showed longwave ridging centered over the western US with downstream northwest flow aloft into the Upper Midwest. As the western ridge continues to gradually build eastward, the warming trend will continue on Thursday with highs generally expected to reach the 80s over the area. The heat builds in for the weekend as the 500mb ridge over the Northern Plains shifts eastward. The thermal axis of 25 deg C+ air at 850mb over the High Plains Friday generally stays west of the forecast area, however 850mb temperatures do increase to 18 to 21 degrees C with southwest flow aloft.
1018 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop across much of the area as a remnant MCV at the base of the upper trough continues to rotate across central OK. Thursday will likely offer a rare break from our wet pattern as the upper trough moves slowly east of our area. High will still be on the cool side for this time of year (but warmer than they have been), reaching into the low 80s for much of the area.
Ridge axis stretching from Bermuda towards the local area will maintain generally south to southeast winds through the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances remaining likely, with the highest coverage occurring during the afternoon.
1046 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Water vapor show massive positively titled upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, trof had nudged through much of south central SD with light northerly flow across most the CWFA.
The strong upper ridge will move east tonight, resulting in southwest flow aloft on Thursday. The hot dry conditions in the lower atmosphere will enhance the convective wind threat with the thunderstorms, with gusts to 50+ mph possible with the stronger storms. A weak cold front arrives on Friday with the focus for convection shifting into central Idaho and the higher elevations south of Twin Falls.
Also added some patchy fog to the late night/early morning forecast from around Shelbyville to Rantoul eastward as higher dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and light/variable wind in this area suggest some fog potential, however it is far from the ideal fog setup with few breaks in cloud cover expected and, with the exception of areas southeast of Effingham to Danville, recent precipitation has been spotty.
Similar to the last few days, the best opportunity for storms looks to be west of the Pecos River and particularly across the higher terrain this afternoon, with potential for eastward development as storms congeal into multicell clusters and/or outflow boundaries generate additional convection into this evening.
Ahead of the trough, 800 j/kg of surface based cape has developed ahead of an alto-stratus cloud deck, which contributed to convective clouds and isolated showers and storms. Forecast moisture convergence points towards areas north of HWY 29 from Green Bay to Wausau should see the highest coverage of thunderstorms. High temperatures will be warmer than today and range from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
/issued 917 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/ A few showers remain over the forecast area this evening, mainly along an old stalled frontal boundary roughly along the Highway 190 and I-10 corridors. At the surface, a washed-out frontal boundary is located just northwest of the the CWA, while aloft, a deepening trough is situated across the center of the country from the Great Lakes to Texas. Upper level disturbances rotating around the base of this trough, in combination with the moist airmass overhead and the lingering surface boundary have provided another day of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area.
Otherwise, the lingering upper trof over the area the past few days will shift east on Thursday. A warmer and drier pattern will commence and continue through Friday with increasing southerly low level flow beneath ridging aloft over the northern/central Plains.