Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The only tweaks were to push pops a bit further northward over the lower yellowstone valley based on the current radar picture. This will mean effective radiational cooling and temperatures falling into the low 20s. An upper level ridge will gradually build into the midweek allowing for dry weather and warmer temperatures with associated height rises.
Stratus deck continues to quickly fill in to the south-southwest behind the advancing cold front, which is near Watertown at this time. 850 mb temps drop to around 0 degrees C over northern and western areas today, with slightly warmer air further east.
Precipitation types this morning will encompass the possibility of freezing rain. rain and snow, eventually settling down to rain or snow as temperatures rise above freezing late this morning. This narrow band of snow is forecast to further develop this morning as an upper level trough swings through the Northern Plains. Locations and amounts are always tricky when it comes to mesoscale bands, but today's forecast is especially tricky due to temperatures remaining right near the freezing threshold. Further east across central North Dakota a mix of rain and snow is expected with warmer temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.
A weak upper-level trough could result in isolated convection across portions of East Texas south of I-20 during the 11/18z-12/00z time frame. A cold front to shift southeast across the midwest on Wednesday.
/issued 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016/ The forecast area will be located in-between a broad upper-level ridge over northern Mexico and energetic zonal or weakly cyclonic flow extending from southern California to the southern Rockies. Afternoon highs should range from the middle 80s in the southwest TX Panhandle to the low 90s in the Rolling Plains. Low temps will range from the low 50s in the southwest TX Panhandle to middle 60s in the srn and ern Rolling Plains. The warmth of today will come to an abrupt end as a northern stream wave swinging across the Midwest sends a strong cold front southward through the area. Isentropic upglide will then develop above the surface ridging.
As the upper trough approaches tonight, precip will move into the west behind the SFC cold front.
At the moment, there is a break in the cloud cover across southwest Minnesota underneath the 1000-850mb thermal ridge. A strong cold front will be exiting the region Wednesday morning, with brisk northwest winds in its wake. High pressure will build in overnight, so should see another night favorable for radiational cooling and low temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
706 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will build across the Northeast United States to the New England coast during today, then slides into the northern Atlantic late tonight through Wednesday.
A weak upper-level trough could result in isolated convection across portions of East Texas south of I-20 during the 11/18z-12/00z time frame.
High pressure covers much of the eastern U. Dry weather will continue for tonight as the high starts to shift east into the Atlantic coast. On Wednesday, a cold front will be located from the upper Mississippi valley to the southern plains. By Wednesday night, the cold front will have moved into Arkansas so some thunderstorms are expected to move into the forecast area mainly over north and western sections.
MSAS analysis showing strong high across New England ridging into the Gulf of Mexico.
Will tweak the sky grid with the addition of some of this high layer to the grids across the northern half of the forecast area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 46 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 47 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0.
a cold front will be knocking on our door across the far Northwest probably as early as 18Z. The west will be hampered some by the front and clouds but will still be in the lower to mid 70's.
1243 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure over New England will continue moving east Today weakening its influence over the local area.
Analysis has a cold front from eastern South Dakota through central Nebraska into northern Colorado at this time. The north will be much cooler today with the front moving through earlier in the day. Temperatures will be cooler than tonight. We will start out Wednesday with strong height rises at the surface behind a cold front. Much colder air will settle in behind the cold front and Wednesday should feel like a cold and raw day with quite a bit of wind, especially in the morning, and highs in the 50s.
High pressure off to our northeast will shift winds to the south, which will keep temperatures above seasonal normals today through Wednesday.
Some patchy fog and even freezing fog was being reported around the area this morning in places such as Meacham. Otherwise expect skies to gradually become sunny or mostly sunny this afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the forecast area. High pressure remains in control of our weather for tonight bringing clear skies and light winds.
/issued 333 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016/ Broad high pressure along the east coast continues to keep a steady northeast flow across the Florida peninsula today and into much of the week.
Also increased wind speeds behind cold front on Wednesday given latest 12z MET guidance.
845 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and east of the forecast area. Light snow accumulations, mostly an inch or less, are expected over portions of northeast WY and western SD, with a couple of inches possible across the higher Black Hills. Upper level analysis has strong trof swinging through the Northern Rockies at the moment. At the surface, cold front has moved south and east of the Forecast area, with high pressure building into northern Montana. Strong upper trof will shift east from the Rockies into the Great Plains. Highs will range from the upper 30s across parts of far northwest SD and northeast WY to the lower 50s over far southern SD. Upper trof axis shifts east of the area with cold Canadian high pressure over western SD Wednesday morning.
A backdoor cold front will work southward into the far northeast plains toward sunrise Wednesday.
Cold front through all but the Park Rapids and Wadena areas and it should be through those areas by 12z. Mid level moisture streaming northeast ahead of a positively titled 500 mb short wave trough will bring some light precipitation to northeastern ND and into far northwestern MN as the morning progresses and this precipitation area will sink south and east this aftn and evening. High pressure will build southeastward into the western ND Wednesday with gradual clearing expected from west to east into Wed evening.
912 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016 Below normal temperatures with night through morning low clouds and fog are expected through Wednesday as a weak upper level trough moves through the region.
Expect VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours as the 500mb ridge over northwest Mexico provides subsidence across the region. /issued 437 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A 500mb ridge over northwest Mexico will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through most of the forecast period.
953 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Canadian high pressure will shift offshore slowly today and Wednesday.
740 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will slide to the east today and Wednesday.
Upper ridge axis generally located from the northeast gulf to the GA/Carolina coast will remain mostly stationary and weaken through tonight. To the west next short wave trof moving eastward across the mid and lower central plains states this morning will shift east to the north central gulf states by this evening. Daytime temps will continue to be near or just above seasonal averages with highs in the lower to middle 80s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast.
1152 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Updated the forecast earlier this morning to lower temperatures by as much as 10-12 degrees due to the low stratus deck moving southeast into the area. Also updated the TAF's to account for the low stratus deck. Analysis has a cold front from eastern South Dakota through central Nebraska into northern Colorado at this time. The north will be much cooler today with the front moving through earlier in the day. Temperatures will be cooler than tonight. We will start out Wednesday with strong height rises at the surface behind a cold front. Much colder air will settle in behind the cold front and Wednesday should feel like a cold and raw day with quite a bit of wind, especially in the morning, and highs in the 50s.
The incoming cold front will have enough dynamics to support precipitation likely kicking off showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours.
715 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 Canadian high pressure will extend across the eastern U. Today: Continental polar high pressure will continue to extend SWWD across central NC today. Lows in the low to mid 40s W, to around 50 degrees or so E. Little change in the weather pattern will take place, with continued surface ridging lingering over the ERN U. In addition to the high clouds accompanying this feature, stratocumulus will continue to percolate beneath a still- strong subsidence inversion, though the models differ in the resultant coverage (more clouds depicted by the NAM than the GFS).
Chances for rain should hold off until later on Wed as a cold front moves south towards the state. These SRLY winds will allow for warmer temps than seen yesterday. with the cold front over the plains dropping south towards the state.
1247 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will crest over the area today and tonight then move east of the region on Wednesday.
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure over the region today will gradually shift offshore through Wednesday.
Cooler NE portion of the area was unable to gain any separation between temp and dewpoints before sunset. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 62 57 64 / 10 20 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 65 55 63 / 10 20 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 51 64 55 61 / 10 20 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 63 50 63 / 10 10 50 70.
Snow, some of it heavy, was falling over most of the forecast area outside of the southern James River Valley where freezing rain continued. Colder behind the exiting storm, warmer for mid week, then colder again to end the week into the New Year's Holiday Weekend.
533 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front will lift north through the Ohio Valley tonight.
However, as the front slows and slips into the mid-state tomorrow evening, 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 kts and some helicity, along with dew points in the low 60s providing some surface based instability (200-400 J/Kg) could present slightly more widespread thunderstorm activity than we have been advertising the last few forecast packages.
537 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Busy forecast again today with strong low pressure across the Central Plains lifting north tonight. Broad upper level trof will keep northwesterly flow over the area through the area.
523 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front is north of the state with a cold front now moving into eastern Oklahoma. IFR to LIFR conditions will return to all terminals tonight before the aforementioned cold front and associated SHRA/TSRA moves into western Arkansas. A cold front is moving east through central Oklahoma this afternoon.
A highly amplified ridge will remain in place from the eastern CONUS into eastern Canada through tonight, with unseasonably warm temperatures aloft and at the surface. Moisture continues to increase over our region as well, with dewpoints increasing into the low-mid 60s across northern FL and a cumulus field developing from the FL Big Bend region into parts of SW Georgia. After record highs across some locations this afternoon, lows should only dip into the lower 60s across most of our area overnight, with upper 50s possible in parts of SW Georgia.
Impressive dry slot on the satellite is the upper jet and associated dry conveyor belt moving over the high plains and leading to bombogenesis over the northeast corner of the state. A few more inches in the high country can not be ruled out.
High pressure ridging behind the storm will become centered across southwest Kansas with strongest gradient winds behind the departing cyclone off to our northeast.
The culprit for higher winds is still the high pressure along the eastern United States and Western Atlantic.
Have also increased winds this evening in eastern zones where higher gusts are currently occurring as a result of the deepening low in the Dakotas and local high pressure at the surface over western portions of N-central MT. then high pressure will clear out the lower conditions by around 06Z.
Central Alabama remains south of a warm front draped east to west across the Ohio River Valley and east of a cold front stretching southward through the Plains. The deep trough with associated cold front will approach Central AL on Monday evening, increasing cloud cover.
Snow, some of it heavy, was falling over most of the forecast area outside of the southern James River Valley where freezing rain continued. Colder behind the exiting storm, warmer for mid week, then colder again to end the week into the New Year's Holiday Weekend. Main hazard to aviation will be widespread blizzard conditions across west and central North Dakota with freezing rain and sleet at KJMS changing to snow.
Skies will remain partly cloudy as a low pressure system passing southward offshore sends some mid and high cloudiness over our area.
Upper level trough responsible for the increased winds today and our shower and thunderstorm maker for tonight and Monday is currently churning its way across the Inter Mountain west this afternoon and is fcst to quickly eject out into the Central /Northern Plains tonight. As the trough lifts out into the Plains, it will be dragging a cold front with it across the Southern Plains. maybe pushing completely through our region during the day Tue before beginning to lift back to the north as a warm front late Tue Night into Wed.
Warm front has lifted north into Kentucky with sharp temperature gradient between Nashville and the Ohio River. Cyclone over South Dakota will lift up toward the arrowhead by 12z Monday while dragging a cold front down through central Arkansas. Strong ridging across the southeastern U.
Main effects to our sensible weather will come with the coming and going of a cold front Monday. A warm front continues to lift north across the region this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase later tonight ahead of the next cold front pushing east toward the region.
911 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front lifts northeast tonight.
A departing low pressure system will continue to keep winds strong, around 25 to 35 kts with gusts up to 50 kts, at all terminals thru about 26/03Z.
With subsidence under a building upper level ridge weak offshore flow is developing. The low clouds should mix out of the east side Monday as there will be better mixing ahead of the front that moves in from the coast Monday afternoon.
expecting a lull later in the evening prior to a second push of SW winds then the westerlies take over by 10-12z tomorrow behind the low. Highs Monday will be in the 20s far north to the lower 40s in the south.
(ISSUED 523 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 ) A warm front is north of the state with a cold front now moving into eastern Oklahoma. IFR to LIFR conditions will return to all terminals tonight before the aforementioned cold front and associated SHRA/TSRA moves into western Arkansas. A cold front is moving east through central Oklahoma this afternoon.
The one exception is right along the coast where cooler water temperatures are keeping readings in the mid to upper 60s. Rua Low pressure in the Rockies will slide off to the east-northeast over the next couple of days.
705 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Upper level low pressure system was located over western SD. Warm air aloft was over mainly the Mn side of the REd River and far southeast ND and creating the freezing precip. Temperatures are right around freezing within the freezing rain area which may limit ice accumulation across some areas, but there will be areas where surfaces remain below freezing with significant ice accums.
Tonight Temperatures are hovering right around freezing across northern Clark and Taylor counties late this evening. We have extended the Freezing Rain Advisory for Clark and Taylor counties through 11 PM. As a result, we extended the Freezing Rain Advisory for northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota until 6 PM. North-central Wisconsin has only seen a light freezing rain so far. Strong 800 to 700 mb frontogenesis (associated with the elevated warm front) has resulted in scattered thunderstorms developing between Mankato Minnesota and Madison Wisconsin. Temperatures ahead of the cold front will climb into the 40s across much of the area tonight. This will bring an end to the freezing rain threat.
Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a potent and closed 529 dm low pressure system situated over the NE/SD border with wintry blizzard conditions across the northern Plains. Meanwhile a 590 dm subtropical ridge is anchored over Florida and ridging over the southeast U.
531 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Early afternoon weather has been strongly tied to warm front and pockets of clear skies. Warm front currently aligned WNW-ESE from STJ to Moberly. Instability will generally remain as-is or slowly increase during the remainder of the afternoon in areas south of the warm front, but most locations should realize AOB 500 J/kg of SB/MU CAPE. While enough elevated instability is expected to maintain some semblance of the convective line through the entire CWA, thanks in part to strong linear forcing, there remains limited instability in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. This window should quickly end by 02Z as instability weakens and the low- levels decouple.
With high pressure to the north of the area an onshore 15 to 20 knot east to northeast flow will continue across the area with Small Craft Exercise Caution over the offshore waters.
High pressure continues to dominate across the Florida peninsula and adjacent waters.
748 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front will bring a chance of light showers early Monday morning continuing through much of the day. Temperatures could be cold enough Monday morning for a brief period of freezing rain and a winter weather advisory has been issued for the area.
Heavy rain, thunderstorms, and freezing rain are being reported across the area this afternoon. Due to the uncertainty in local temps I went ahead and left the current headlines alone since many areas are still receiving a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Additional freezing rain/snow is possible. The transition from rain/freezing rain to snow, with 1-2 inch accumulations in Marshall, Day, and Roberts counties will need to be monitored as blizzard conditions are not out of the question.
303 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2016 Early afternoon water vapor loop indicated a stacked intense low pressure system over northeast CO. A cold front moved south and east into western NE and extended along the CO/WY border west- northwest into west central WY. Most of any lingering snowfall on the backside of the large storm system exiting to our east will be in the higher elevations of Carbon and Albany counties by morning (especially on the western facing slopes of the Sierra Madre and Snowy Mountain Ranges where strong midlevel winds will keep orographic forcing in play).
533 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2016 Early afternoon water vapor loop indicated a stacked intense low pressure system over northeast CO. A cold front moved south and east into western NE and extended along the CO/WY border west- northwest into west central WY. Most of any lingering snowfall on the backside of the large storm system exiting to our east will be in the higher elevations of Carbon and Albany counties by morning (especially on the western facing slopes of the Sierra Madre and Snowy Mountain Ranges where strong midlevel winds will keep orographic forcing in play).
In addition, a vigorous upper level low pressure system translating northeast across the central and northern Plains, has an associated Pacific cold front moving east across north central TX and central OK. Upper level trough responsible for the increased winds today and our shower and thunderstorm maker for tonight and Monday is currently churning its way across the Inter Mountain west this afternoon and is fcst to quickly eject out into the Central /Northern Plains tonight. As the trough lifts out into the Plains, it will be dragging a cold front with it across the Southern Plains. maybe pushing completely through our region during the day Tue before beginning to lift back to the north as a warm front late Tue Night into Wed.
547 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front lifts northeast tonight.
Early this afternoon a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a Pacific cold front was pushing east and should reach the western counties of the CWA after 19Z. The deep upper trough was lifting north-northeast across southwest NE. However, most of the higher resolution models show the instability remaining rather low across much of the CWA. Monday, will be cooler as westerly winds become northwest. Though high temperatures will be above normal with highs in the lower to mid 40s.
A cold front is expected to move through the area during the day Monday.
and the warm front associated with its development has remained to the south of the CWA this afternoon, limiting the warm up today. Two main concerns for the overnight will be the chance for some limited thunder with the best lift invof the cold front. There is a trof in the mid levels associated with the cold front. The overnight lows will be happening rather early this evening, and hourly temps should begin to climb behind the warm front into tomorrow morning. Temps tomorrow will either fall through the day in the northwest with the passing of the cold front early.
An upper ridge remains centered over the Florida Atlantic coast. The upper ridge continues to assert its effect on temps.
548 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 A strong low pressure system will continue occluding over the central plains tonight. Once the warm front has lifted to the north, southeasterly winds will increase and gust to 20-30 mph at times. SHRA/TSRA will be forced by the system's cold front and supported by large-scale ascent and modest H7-H5 lapse rates. The persistent low clouds and fog/mist which have been in place for the last few days will quickly clear out behind the cold front, and most locations should see partly sunny skies tomorrow.
559 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory. Winds have diminished this afternoon in the wake of a Pacific front as the parent upper low has progressed into the Northern Plains. Thus, have allowed the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and the Wind Advisory for Southeast New Mexico, and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, and western Permian Basin expire as scheduled. /issued 232 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016/ An upper low currently over the central Rockies will continue to move northeast tonight into the northern Plains.
This will reinforce the wedge keeping the low clouds across much of the cwa into Monday night. An approaching cold front will bring higher chances of rain to north GA late Monday night. Temperatures will remain mild for this time of year although it will be cooler on Monday due to the low clouds and wedge.
Reinforcing ridge extending down along the eastern U. Temperatures will be mild, with lows in the low 70s along coastal areas south of the Cape and in the mid to upper 60s farther north and inland. (Previous Discussion) A slight increase in easterly flow still looks on tap as rather strong high pressure moves off the eastern seaboard.
807 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A warm front will bring a chance of light showers early Monday morning continuing through much of the day. Temperatures could be cold enough Monday morning for a brief period of freezing rain and a winter weather advisory has been issued for the area.