Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
619 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES WITH THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH THE LEAD WAVE OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB TODAY BUT K INDICES ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THISWEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.
1251 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY, THEN DRAG MUCH COOLER AIR THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY.
655 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE TAF PERIOD ENDS.
ISSUED BY NWS LINCOLN IL 1123 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 311 AM CDT LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015 A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.
124 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKLEY CATAGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT ALKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES. IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
221 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH/EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE PATTERN EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS WEAK/TRANSIENT S/W RIDGING AND BROAD MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE TN VLY. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL SHIFT E/NE TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
41 THE MUCH ADVERTISED COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WEDGE WILL RESULT IN NEAR 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.
130 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH 70S.
1225 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 REGION STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH UPPER LOW NEAR NEW MEXICO SPAWNING AREAS OF MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO KEEP LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONERY SUGGESTING NO IMPACTS TO OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY GOING WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. ZONAL MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
/ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ BECAUSE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
209 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
540 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN US HAS SETTLED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT STEADILY EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. READINGS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER VALLEY AREAS OF GRAHAM.
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES. IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
210 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2015 High pressure over the west coast for mainly fair skies and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
208 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region, bringing warm, dry days and cool nights, through the remainder of the work week.
After a cool night TONIGHT things will quickly rebound to very pleasant conditions with sunny skies and temperatures warmer than normal.
315 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ALOFT WITH A VERY DEEP 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETUP SHOULD YIELD A SLOW MIGRATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY.
320 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA FROM THE WSW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMING WX. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NW OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL WAIT FOR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ON FRIDAY.
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT WE HAVE A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.
1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW. A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST.
146 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY.
549 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
INITIAL CONCERN IS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BRB THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
BEST CHANCE STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 LATE AFTERNOON AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPS 65-75 NORTH OF FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH ALONG INTERSTATE 4. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MEANS SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL BE THE SPARK FOR STORMS. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT CREATING A SLIGHT SPLIT FLOW OVER THE STATE BY THE TAILEND OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
336 PM MST THU APR 16 2015 EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. SOME HINTS OF A WARM FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT.
250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SPLINTERING RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUT WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 75 57 77 / 30 30 10 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 75 56 77 / 20 30 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 75 57 77 / 20 30 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 73 52 78 / 30 20 10 20.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EWX CWA DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THIS AREA.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
138 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.
257 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 H500 DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA FORMING A REGION OF SINKING/DRYING AIR OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
356 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AN IMPRESSIVE SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CREATING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY WINDS IN PORTIONS OF GRAHAM. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST VALUES IN SEVERAL WEEKS. NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
1155 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PHASES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. BEHIND THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUR LINGERING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. AS THE LOW EXITS EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER AND AREA-WIDE DRY CONDITIONS WILL SET IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS CO. MODELS COMING TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THRU THE WEEKEND.
525 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
418 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
1240 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 BASED ON DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ASSUME BROAD SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A H250 JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS PEMBINA. TO NEAR MOBRIDGE IN SOUTH DAKOTA. ON FRIDAY WESTERN CONUS WILL BE IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND PERIODIC WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER COLORADO. IT WILL WRAP SOME MORE MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET UP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER ANCHORING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FOR SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MOISTURE PLUME EXISTING JUST UPSTREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO THE THERMAL TROUGHING WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. 5 TO 9 C ADVERTISED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AND THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MAXES IN THE LOWER 70S.
The atmosphere remains fairly juicy, especially in the low levels, with precipitable water pushing 1.
BUT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STILL EXPECTING NORTHERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES A WEAK SFC TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE SFC RIDGING ENDS THE ACTIVITY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
312 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS QUASI ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LOW DIGGING IN AT H5 OVER THE DESERT SW. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING ACROSS ILLINOIS, AS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO COLORADO.
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT THINGS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORTER TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH TOWARD KUTS/KCLL DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT. /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ A SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW ANALYZED JUST INLAND. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY FOCUS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SUBSEQUENT (DOWNSTREAM) PRIOR CONVECTION OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THAT BEING THE SLOW-MOVING FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW PLACING TEXAS WITHIN A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIFFULENT FLOW PATTERN WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.
341 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015 Upper low continues to spin around the Four Corners this afternoon. Low and mid level moisture transport into central and western Kansas will continue this evening and increase overnight as the low level jet strengthens. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the evening and overnight with the highest confidence mainly west of a Marysville to Manhattan to Council Grove line where shear and instability will be favorable for strong to a few severe storms. On Friday, the upper low will pivot east northeast from the four corners into southern Colorado.
1214 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
351 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
RAIN WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY.
631 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016 WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AND LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST.
MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THESE WILL BE EXITING BY 8 TO 9 AM THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY'S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.
THE COLDEST CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEST. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE GREAT BASIN.
STILL HAVE A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS TODAY.
A PAIR OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.