Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As expected, the increased moisture and cloud cover along with cooler low-level temperatures has resulted in lower temperatures this afternoon. We are running 3 to 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, but still getting close to 90 degrees, and still above normal for the end of April. A progressive upper-level trough will be moving east-northeast through the mid-Mississippi Valley region with a surface cold front moving into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With the ridge of high pressure retreating to the east.
312 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Latest upper level analysis shows the closed low along the KS/OK border moving east. Regarding current warnings, have canceled the high wind warning due to the threat for high winds ending. Monday will be warmer as northwest flow moves over the forecast area. Despite going cooler than almost all guidance, highs maybe too warm, especially where the heavy snowfall occurred. Winds will be a bit breezy west of the deeper snow field where the air will be warmer.
After that, it's a couple of recovery days for much of the remainder of the short term, with much cooler air sweeping down on the back side of the Low for Monday-Monday night in particular. There is an elevated warm front displaced maybe 25-50 miles to the north, where some overrunning energy could pop a few showers/storms. The model blend suggests that showers in the eastern half of the region could linger into Fri evening, but this seemed to be mainly because of the deterministic GFS, which had the mid/upper low more cut off from the mid level flow over the eastern CONUS. Active convection diminishing this evening will see lingering MVFR bases start to improve overnight, and as parent upper Low rides northeastward across MS valley, overall terminal improvement back to VFR should occur.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain over region for the next several days with warming and dry weather. Sunny skies again this afternoon with high pressure in control. Water vapor imagery shows the ridge axis centered out near 130w with quite extensive coverage of the east Pacific. Not too much change in the forecast thinking this afternoon as forecast models continue to agree in slowly moving the ridge axis towards the coast this week.
A few of the short term models such as the HRRR have indicated 2 waves of precip; one being this initial line currently approaching the I-65 corridor and the second band of precip closer to the cold front that will pass through the area this evening and early overnight. NVA isnt too strong behind the front, so clouds may stick around a bit longer as the upper low spins northward towards the Great Lakes.
This is all ahead of a pre- frontal trough axis still lagging behind the convection in western Mississippi. Additional showers are developing along the cold front further west over eastern Arkansas. Strong lift ahead of the approaching cold front along with good shear is forecast by models. The limiting factor will be instability with this activity ahead of the cold front. Given how prevalent cloud cover is both near the cold front and along/ahead of the pre-frontal trough axis, recovery of surface based instability looks very doubtful. Shear and helicity should rebound ahead of the cold front though. However given the high PWATS around 1. 6 inches forecast to continue overnight ahead of the cold front, additional heavy rainfall could still occur. Much drier and cooler air is forecast to move in behind the front on Monday.
That will shift the strongest pressure gradient farther away from the highway 83 corridor, and bring the axis of stronger surface winds over the eastern half of our area for the late afternoon and evening hours. Models are accounting for the snow in the west by discounting highs around 20 degrees between the warmer, near 70F far southeast, and our northwest counties. The trend is for warmer and drier continuing into the weekend.
The shower activity will persist for only a few hours as moisture rotates around upper level low pressure in SE Kansas. VFR to occasional MVFR conditions will persist as drier air tries to undercut the aforementioned low pressure as it starts to accelerate NE. The actual cold front is lagging several hours behind with a wind shift not expected until later in the period. Powerhouse upper level low currently located over SE Kansas at this time and forecast to finally lift out to the NE with drier air undercutting the departing system. (ISSUED 642 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 ) The cold front is still in western Arkansas this morning.
Strong high pressure aloft will finally reach the area for the latter half of the week.
Sufficient monsoon moisture in place this weekend will lead to mostly afternoon and evening chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly focused across the high terrain of central and eastern Arizona. Isolated storms will be possible across the lower deserts of south-central and southwest Arizona.
1052 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure will keep the weather quiet today for the Midwest. Northerly winds generally less than 10kts for the morning and temperatures already into the lower 70s. Quiet weather on tap in the short term, as high pressure settles across the Midwest through tonight. The area of high pressure will slowly edge eastward early in the week, preventing any meaningful moisture return into our area.
729 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A crossing cold front will end shower and thunderstorm chances by evening. Dry weather can be expected with Sunday high pressure. A cold front will complete passage over the region later today. Weak high pressure will move over the Great Lakes for Sunday, so dry weather will close the weekend.
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop late this morning into the afternoon as a cold front moves across the terminals.
1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Weekend shaping up to be quite a nice one as high pressure remains the main weather influence for the region.
1225 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A slow moving cold front will push southeast through the commonwealth late today.
600 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across the eastern sections of the forecast area early this morning as the short wave trough that brought them out of eastern Colorado late last evening continues eastward across Kansas. Temperatures are expected to be warmer today than yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s extending from the Nebraska panhandle region along the eastern Colorado border region. This will produce an axis of greater instability extending from western Nebraska through eastern Colorado from mid-day through early evening as a short wave trough aloft sweeps east of the Rockies and across Nebraska and Kansas this evening.
718 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front approaches the region today and passes through tonight.
921 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A crossing cold front will end shower and thunderstorm chances by evening. Dry weather can be expected with Sunday high pressure. With 9:15am update, decided to slightly expand coverage of likely pops in the ridges with the frontal passage. A cold front will complete passage over the region later today. Weak high pressure will move over the Great Lakes for Sunday, so dry weather will close the weekend.
730 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Aviation An isolated shower or two are expected today as a cool airmass flows over the warmer Great Lakes.
1018 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front approaches the region today and passes through tonight.
1218 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front approaches the region today and passes through tonight.
However, very warm conditions prevailed aloft, with the freezing level above 17kft and 500mb temps only -4C. With the low level trough to the northeast of the region, and no appreciable forcing, the warm temperatures aloft will help cap convection this afternoon. Temperatures will rise to near 90 to the lower 90s across the region, with heat indices around 105F this afternoon.
1112 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Hydro An isolated shower or two are expected today as a cool airmass flows over the warmer Great Lakes.
636 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Weekend shaping up to be quite a nice one as high pressure remains the main weather influence for the region.
The better chances for seeing this shallow fog will be generally south of the highway 60 corridor or where the heaviest rainfall occurred yesterday. As the aforementioned H5 impulse continues eastward on Sunday, much of the CWFA will remain dry with the highest probability of showers/storms residing right along the Arkansas and Oklahoma borders. The pesky northwest flow due to the upper level ridge over Texas will begin to flatten and become more southwesterly as the ridge begins to slide eastward across the southern tier states. High pressure has nosed down into the Ozarks region this morning with partly cloudy skies and light winds.
/issued 444 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Currently, a mid/upper level high pressure area extends from the northern Baja Peninsula, east into the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a cold front has slowed, and nearly stalled just south of the I-20 corridor early this morning. Warmer mid level temperatures generally south of a Mertzon to San Saba line is expected to inhibit rain chances for southern areas. For temperatures, will go with similar temperatures south of the cold front, slightly cooler north, with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 70 87 71 / 40 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 85 69 / 40 30 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 85 67 85 68 / 50 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 65 83 65 / 60 30 10 20.
918 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Low pressure will track northwest of the region Today.
1045 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest today and settle into central NC tonight through early Sunday. 2 inches (~150 percent of normal) coupled with a mid level trough, drifting slowly east, will trigger rounds of scattered convection. 12Z upper air analysis depicts the 850mb trough entering the western Piedmont. This feature progged to drift into the coastal plain by late in the day, focusing the highest concentration of showers and storms in this region. The low level convergence along this feature interacting with the available moisture should initiate/sustain scattered showers and storms through the night. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. Muggy lows again in the lower to middle 70s.
603 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes extends surface ridging over our area today resulting in a very nice Saturday.
Due to the fact that the low clouds have not begun to diminish since sunrise. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across the eastern sections of the forecast area early this morning as the short wave trough that brought them out of eastern Colorado late last evening continues eastward across Kansas. Temperatures are expected to be warmer today than yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s extending from the Nebraska panhandle region along the eastern Colorado border region. This will produce an axis of greater instability extending from western Nebraska through eastern Colorado from mid-day through early evening as a short wave trough aloft sweeps east of the Rockies and across Nebraska and Kansas this evening.
913 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front crosses today with some showers and storms expected. High pressure crosses to north Sunday.
1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A crossing cold front will end shower and thunderstorm chances by evening. Dry weather can be expected with Sunday high pressure. With 11:45am update, tweaked timing and placement of likely pops along the cold front, considering scattered showers have developed in the last hour. To the west of the cold front, low stratus is starting to break up somewhat, although cumulus will likely persist through the day. Weak high pressure will move over the Great Lakes for Sunday, so dry weather will close the weekend.
1015 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 The tropical low that has been the primary WX feature has been absorbed by a frontal trof over the Deep South. This has allowed the Bermuda Ridge axis to rebuild over S FL, though the said trof will keep it pinned south of Lake-O thru the weekend. Deep moisture remains overhead in the wake of the low. The departure of the low has left the FL Peninsula under a deep lyr col between the Bermuda Ridge and an anticyclone over the GOMEX.
1138 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Low pressure will track northwest of the region this afternoon.
936 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 230 AM CDT A broad upper trough is currently in place over much of the Great Lakes region.
Farther upstream, the latest GOES16 water vapor imagery shows the main upper level low now circulating over northeastern Montana extending into northwestern North Dakota. A 500mb cold pocket of -17C was noted with the upper low, along with isolated showers/thunderstorms.
1204 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A slow moving cold front will push southeast through the commonwealth late today.
1030 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure and dry air will build in from the west.
High pressure over Wisconsin tonight and over the Great Lakes Sunday. A broad upper trough will move across the Upper Great Lakes, with a west/northwest flow across southern Wisconsin. Have used the high resolution HRRR for winds today, that bring more a a lake breeze into the far east. Areas of fog expected tonight as high pressure moves across Wisconsin. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure overhead on Sunday will bring another round of pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin.
The remnants of the small low pressure system continues to move north through the forecast area this morning with some isolates to scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. The upper level ridge over the region is shifting to the east allowing an upper level trough to move into the region. The leading edge of the trough will push a cold front across the forecast area late tonight and Sunday. The front could produce some light steady rain as it passes but the main impact will be cooler temperatures and enough westerly winds to finally mix out most of the smoke in the forecast area. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening across the higher elevations as a trough crosses the region.
1038 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A cold front will move through the area this evening and become stationary across the Carolinas early in the week. Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday and holds through the end of the week. Air aloft is a little cooler too with -10C at h5. Cold front crosses the area tonight with PoPs ending by 2am. Cold front persists south of the area through the middle of the week.
1007 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Under golden sunshine and light east winds temperatures are climbing fairly quickly in the lower to mid 70s. Surface wise, a broad western Atlantic ridge extends across the Sunshine State resulting in mostly east winds of 10 knots or less on our marine district.
A vigorous low pressure system was centered over northern California and Nevada this morning. Increasing southwest flow has kept breezy winds going overnight in the high country, with some upslope stratus also developing. By early this evening, the trough and associated cold front will begin to affect northwest Coconino County with increasing chances for snow. Deep saturation, dynamic lift ahead of the trough and moderate upslope flow suggest a period of moderate to heavy snow for elevations above the 5000 ft level. The heaviest accumulations are forecast for the Mogollon Rim including the Flagstaff area, the Grand Canyon north and south rims, and the higher elevations of northern Navajo and northeast Coconino Counties.
Clouds can be seen dropping down from the north as upper low slides over and east of the area. Previous discussion: A deep and cold upper low over northern Maine at 12Z this morning will pull east of Nova Scotia this evening. Another upper low in Quebec will move toward the region tonight. Arctic air has spilled into the area early this morning, and temperatures today will feel more like January with highs in the teens north to the low 20s along the coast.
1115 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Crossing low pressure will spread a light wintry mix of precipitation along and south of Interstate 70 this morning. Light snow and sleet/freezing rain mix is moving into northern WV and is pulling east quickly. Most locations will make a run at 50 save for the higher elevations and north of I80.
608 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A much quieter day in store, as low pressure over northern MO and southern IA will continue to pull away from the region. Upper level ridging builds into the region on Sunday, providing for a milder day with highs in the 40s, though nearing 50 degrees through the lower MO River corridor.
1034 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather and a good amount of sunshine today. A weak cold front may produce a few flurries or light snow showers on Sunday.
1125 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Warm frontal showers continue to exit the region to the east at this time leading to drying conditions through the mid/late afternoon hours. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 49 68 53 / 30 20 0 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 48 64 50 / 30 40 0 70 Oak Ridge, TN 72 48 65 49 / 40 30 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 44 61 45 / 60 60 0 40.
920 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A broad swath of stratus extends from the upper low over Kansas City along an inverted trough to the northeast across central Nebraska into the Dakotas. This area of stratus is progged to move to the east as the upper low moves east today. Areas over north central Nebraska will be the last to clear with resultant cooler temperatures there only in the 30s this afternoon. Clear skies tonight with southeast winds ahead of upper trough to the west. Diffluence aloft over the Panhandle and upslope flow there is the possibility for some light mixed precipitation along the Pine Ridge.
Snow showers have extended a bit further south into east central areas under the upper low migrating across that area so extended snow showers further south in eastern areas. Previous discussion: A deep and cold upper low over northern Maine at 12Z this morning will pull east of Nova Scotia this evening. Another upper low in Quebec will move toward the region tonight. Arctic air has spilled into the area early this morning, and temperatures today will feel more like January with highs in the teens north to the low 20s along the coast.
A large upper level low continues to slowly track through southern Oregon and will be moving into Idaho by this evening and overnight. Moisture wrapping around the low is impacting most of the forecast area this morning with some rain and snow showers.
Low pressure will be pulling off to the east today, dragging sfc front through the region. Cooler temperatures will lag the frontal passage today, so should remain fairly mild today despite possible lack of sunshine.
954 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Although the radar scope was clear of any showers and thunderstorms early today, we still expect that to change this afternoon, as a cold front sags into the area.
Satellite shows MVFR clouds deck into southwest MO on the back side of upper low centered over IA this morning. /Issued 405 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ Early this morning an area of low pressure was positioned across Central Missouri with a cold front extending southwestward through Northwest Arkansas. the cold front is expected to push south of the CWA and become nearly stationary across Northern Texas. northerly winds 5-15 mph and cooler temperatures are forecast for the CWA with highs in the 60s/low 70s from north to south. which will help to lift the cold front back northward toward the Red River. The ECMWF continues to be the furthest south with the low moving through Northern Oklahoma while the GFS/NAM indicate the low moving through Southern Kansas.
A low pressure system, over northern Missouri, will slide southeast across the Ohio Valley and Appalachians today. This system will bring a swath of freezing rain to northeastern sections of central Indiana this morning. High pressure will bring a brief end to the precipitation tonight through Sunday evening.
1002 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 An area of low pressure will push east across Kentucky and Tennessee today.
A wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet, and temperatures hovering near or just above freezing resulting in some wet roads and minor accumulations on elevated surfaces. A brief period of light freezing rain will be possible across the far northern KILX CWA early this morning: however, with air temperatures hovering right at 32F and relatively warm/wet ground conditions, do not think icing will be a major problem. Any early morning freezing rain will quickly transition to rain as temps edge above freezing by 14z/9am. Once the upper low responsible for the precip shifts off to the east, subsidence on the back side of the low and a dry northerly flow will allow the clouds to slowly scatter from north to south tonight.
852 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Crossing low pressure will spread a light wintry mix of precipitation along and south of Interstate 70 this morning. Warming aloft will keep the threat of sleet or freezing rain in the forecast through at least midday, but the competing wet-bulbing process could switch the northern edge of the precipitation shield back to snow.
/issued 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ An occluding cyclone over IA/MO will continue to move east this morning. Dry air is wrapping around the southern periphery of the circulation between the cyclone and subtropical jet. Synoptic scale forcing for ascent interacting with the low-level jet will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through sunrise, mainly south of I-40, but this convection is expected to be east of the area by sunrise. Winds will be shifting from the west today and eventually from the north this evening as a cold front moves across the area. This front is forecast to gradually lift back to the north on Sunday as a warm front.
714 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Aviation An area of low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley today. A weakening cold front will dissipate as it moves into the region tonight.
The lower flight conditons will spread northeast to TRI this morning as a warm frontal boundary moves through the area. Elevated instabilitiy and warm frontal boundary passage is producing a broken line of showers and thunderstorms over the Plateau and is approaching CHA terminal.
702 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A broad swath of stratus extends from the upper low over Kansas City along an inverted trough to the northeast across central Nebraska into the Dakotas. This area of stratus is progged to move to the east as the upper low moves east today. Areas over north central Nebraska will be the last to clear with resultant cooler temperatures there only in the 30s this afternoon. Clear skies tonight with southeast winds ahead of upper trough to the west. Diffluence aloft over the Panhandle and upslope flow there is the possibility for some light mixed precipitation along the Pine Ridge.
/issued 331 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ THIS WEEKEND: We will remain under the influence of low level high pressure centered just to our east through the weekend. With the ridge axis just to our south, prevailing flow will veer more south- southwesterly, leading to a warmer and slightly more moist atmosphere. Afternoon highs will be closer to normal in the low to mid 80s.