Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While synoptically there is still a strong ridge sitting over northwest Wyoming, keeping temperatures 10+ degrees above normal for this time of year and many areas very dry, a surface frontal boundary will develop in southeast Wyoming late Sunday afternoon, providing the region with ample instability to jump start afternoon convection. Daytime heating will still be strong with the upper-level ridge holding strong over northwest Wyoming, so the panhandle is still conducive to thunderstorms, but confidence is lower for Monday's convection.
Otherwise, expect heat indices to average around 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, across the Midsouth.
With dewpoints into the 70s, heat indices will be in the low 100s. with the highest values around/just over 105F west of I-55 and south of I-20. Convection ends quickly as the ridging over the western CONUS edges into the Miss River Valley. Tomorrow: The forecast period starts off tomorrow with a stout ridge centered over the Four Corners region and active northern stream flow around the periphery of the ridge. A large trough will be located over the Pacific Northwest with a second trough diving through the Great Lakes region. Dew points in the low to mid 70s will also contribute to continued heat stress, especially along and south of I-20 where heat index values of 100-105 degrees will be likely.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Strong upper level ridging was in the SW/SC conus early this morning, with deep troughing off the US/Canadian coast. Cooler; Shower Chances Monday. An upper level short wave digging through the long wave trough aloft will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies and shower chances Monday.
630 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
646 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move east today bring showers and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic area.
High pressure will build over the area today with sunny skies and temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday for most locales. Through the morning, the surface front will slide southeast with high pressure building in its wake. Highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. Low temperatures were nudged below NBM guidance with this forecast, to the low to mid 50s.
600 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains off to the west of the area.
626 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak trough will set up from southwest to northeast across the state today. There could be a few showers or thunderstorms across the southern tier of the forecast area associated with the trough through tonight. High pressure will also build back in at the sfc this evening. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to persist under the upper ridge through the short term with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. The main initial focus in the long range will be on the building heat early in the period followed by the potential for a bit a cooler trend toward the end of the week.
The rain has made inroads into the lower Umpqua Valley, but the "wall of green" (shown on radar) stretches mainly west of a line from about Drain to Crescent City. Short waves will continue to rotate around a closed low that is sitting out around 45N and 137W this morning. While steadier rainfall will continue along the coast, many east side areas, under the influence of the ridge to the east, will remain sunny today, but with gusty afternoon/evening winds.
Also raised temperatures by a couple of degrees into the lower 90s. The weak cold front will push through the TN Valley early tomorrow morning, giving us one more muggy night tonight as lows only reach the low 70s. Warm temperatures continue tomorrow as highs reach the low 90s, potentially mid 90s, in the afternoon underneath clear skies. The good news is that dew points will drop from the mid 70s tomorrow morning down to the low to mid 60s tomorrow night.
Western Montana and central Idaho will remain under southwest flow aloft today and Monday as high pressure remains anchored to the east and low pressure sets up along the Pacific northwest coast. Today's storms will most likely form across the higher terrain of central Idaho and southwest Montana, shifting into west-central Montana this evening. However, as the trough begins to shift inland Monday evening, it may allow for the lift needed to overcome this stable air.
929 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s. Otherwise it looks to be sunny with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Clear to mostly clear overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
A compact upper low across WRN OK has served to destabilize the atmosphere across west Texas leading to bands of shower activity with the potential for a few thunderstorms. Max temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for most of us today, with warmer and drier conditions the farther south and west you go.
411 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
Highs today are on track to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s across the lower valleys, with the hottest temperatures expected from the Boise area east through Mountain Home and into the Magic Valley where temps aloft will be warmest.
Cloud cover should linger across most of the area, which will help to keep temperatures cooler than originally anticipated. By this afternoon, additional storms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado, which will then move south and east this evening.
The thunderstorms are behind a weak cold front which is moving south out of north Mississippi. The upper level pattern for the next few days will have a large upper level ridge centered over the Rockies.
Otherwise, look for another hot day with highs in the lower 90s to lower 100s. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer with max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the entire area. With the upper ridge nudging slightly west Monday, weakness in the northerly flow aloft could bring some slightly better chances for afternoon showers for our eastern counties.
Satellite shows a low pressure system off the coast of the PacNW which continues to pump moisture into western OR/WA with continued rain showers along the Cascades expected today.
319 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Cold front roughly paralleling the Ohio River just after 18Z, with a fairly agitated Cu field and a few CB over northern Kentucky in just the last 30 min or so.
At 320 PM, apart from a few thunderstorms along a weak boundary in central South Dakota, upper level ridging and subsidence were in firm control across the Central Plains. Locally skies were clear, winds were light from the south and temperatures were in the lower 90s. Tonight & Monday: Ridging will remain the main driver of our weather through the next 36 hours, and this should keep us warm (highs in the mid 90s Monday) and generally precipitation free. There are some uncertainties regarding a convective complex expected over the High Plains tonight and a weak frontal passage that could toss a wrench or two into the dry forecast.
Mid level ridging will dominate through the short term period, even if it weakens locally as the ridge axis gradually lifts to the Four Corners region.
However, given the brief nature of low clouds this morning, south-southwesterly winds in the low- levels and the possibility of high clouds moving in, we will not mention in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, look for another hot day with highs in the lower 90s to lower 100s. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer with max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the entire area. With the upper ridge nudging slightly west Monday, weakness in the northerly flow aloft could bring some slightly better chances for afternoon showers for our eastern counties.
1102 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. That strong upper level ridge will be the main feature that will influence our weather through the next 7 days.
Satellite also suggests a very weak upper level disturbance across ncntl Colo/wrn WY which is expected to set off storm activity on the Laramie Range and perhaps the Pine Ridge. Winds aloft are weak at 20 to 25 kts but the bulk effective shear should increase to 30 to 35 kts given the low level inflow across the Panhandle. The convection tonight should help pull the cold front south into ncntl Nebraska providing a modest cool down Monday. The models are in good agreement building a fairly strong h700mb ridge across wrn Nebraska which should produce subsidence and no obvious trigger is shown aloft by the models.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 71 92 68 87 / 30 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 90 66 83 / 20 30 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 69 90 64 83 / 30 30 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 87 62 81 / 30 30 10 10 10.
Cold front being analyzed across central South Dakota back into northeastern Wyoming. Daytime heating will still be strong with the upper-level ridge holding strong over northwest Wyoming, so the panhandle is still conducive to thunderstorms, but confidence is lower for Monday's convection.
143 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Large ridge of High Pressure has entrenched itself over the area and this will cause temperatures to soar about 20 to 30 degrees above normal.
The main synoptic player over the coming days with be a strong and broad upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest.
High pressure will dominate the weather across the area tonight, keeping things dry with clear skies. A low pressure area with a trailing cold front will drop through the state Monday morning. This frontal passage will bring slightly cooler temps to the region and less humid conditions.
226 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 154 PM CDT What a beautiful early-summer day with current temperatures in the low to mid 80s, low humidity, and light winds! Tonight will be similarly pleasant with clear skies and lows in the mid 60s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s, except in the lower 70s along the lakeshore and upper 80s near Rockford. Stay dry when waves are high!) Borchardt 222 PM CDT Cooler and dry conditions will prevail for midweek thanks to a sharp upper ridge to the west and sharp upper trough to the east.
Typical colder valleys may drop into the lower 50s. Similar conditions are expected on Monday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s with continued lower humidity. Most of this week the area will be located between the mid level ridge out west and a trough in the eastern US.
316 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Cannot rule out some late isolated convective triggering across the area, but the greater chances are going to be in the NE mtns for orographic enhancement and central GA closer to the moisture axis and weak lobe of upper trough energy. Temps Monday afternoon should be able to reach decently above climo with most of North GA in the low 90s and even parts of central GA in the mid 90s.
With winds blowing at 10 mph, the temperatures near 90, but dewpoints near 45-50 are actually producing a wind chills in the apparent temperature grids today, as afternoon readings are holding in the lower to mid 80s. Thus, somewhat milder lows in the lower 60s north to mid 60s south are expected.
Shortly before the cumulus line started bubbling, the convergence over the Straits abruptly stopped, sending outflows to the north towards the Lower and Middle Keys. The low-level wedge along the collapsing outflows provided the final push along the Lower and Middle Keys to instigate a back-building, thundery cloud line. Aside from the rains along the Lower Keys, most locations reached 90 degrees this afternoon, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, and light southwesterly breezes. The most recent KBYX scans place scattered thunderstorms over the Straits of Florida southwest of the Lower Keys.
Discussion: Broad H5 anticyclonic flow dominates across the Four Corners, stretching eastward across the Plains into the lower OH/MS and TN Valley regions. Meanwhile a synoptic cold frontal axis stretches along the OH river this afternoon with modest heating out ahead in the relative warm sector across central/east KY, Middle/East TN, and southwest VA. On Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will shift southward as high pressure build in briefly ahead of another frontal axis that will approach Monday night. Cooler, drier conditions expected through mid-week with amplifying troughing.
130 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A strong upper level ridge will remain in place through the short-term. Would not be surprised if the convection remains east of the forecast area due to the strong subsidence from the ridge. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern with hot and dry southwesterly flow.
Cloud cover should linger across most of the area, which will help to keep temperatures cooler than originally anticipated.
400 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 High pressure will briefly build across the area tonight. Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will push southeast across the area on Monday.
We should see highs in the lower 90s in the Hill Country, mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor, with lower 100s out west along the Rio Grande. It will be warm again on Monday with highs ranging from the lower 90s in the Hill Country to lower 100s along the Rio Grande. As of now, it looks like the higher rain chances should remain locked up over west central Texas. We will keep a low chance (20%) for showers and storms in the forecast for areas along the Highway 77 corridor Monday afternoon given higher moisture levels in this area.
Gustiness will continue for a period this afternoon before winds come down in the early evening as high pressure builds in behind the trough.
With dew points in the lower to middle 70s and temperatures eclipsing 90, we should see isolated development soon. Isolated development is also expected along a cold front entering southern KY into middle and southwest TN. A 5h ridge axis will extend east from the large upper high in the southwest U. High pressure at the surface will drop southeast into the Ozarks and lower TN valley, but weaken some. A secondary cold front will be dropping in quickly behind as a strong trough axis drops southeast through the Great Lakes and OH valley.
Lows tonight will be a little cooler across most of our area with good radiational cooling due to a clear sky, the wind becoming light this evening, and relatively low surface dew points. Low temperatures will be slightly cooler across northeast MO and west central IL Monday night.
159 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak cold front will pass across the region today offering a chance for thunderstorms into the afternoon. A second threat for showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Cooler and drier air will then work in for mid week. In the wake of the front some drier air will filter into the region as weak ridging works into the area tonight. Highs to range from the lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. Any lingering pcpn from the s/wv trough will dissipate by late Monday evening. Flow aloft will begin to shift more towards the northwest as the H5 trough over the eastern CONUS becomes more amplified and digs further south into the lower Ohio Valley.
The first round will be this morning, mainly impacting areas from northern Brevard and northern Osceola northward as the upper-level trough digs south and the stationary boundary slowly moves closer to the Space Coast. Another warm day for east central Florida with afternoon highs in the low 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers this morning, mainly from Brevard northward as the upper-level trough digs south and the stationary boundary slowly moves closer to the Space Coast.
high temperatures today will be mostly in the low to mid 90s with heat index values pushing into the triple digits. The highest heat indices, approaching 105, will be from about I-40 south as higher dewpoints will stay there through the afternoon hours before the drier air filters into that area.
1200 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Aviation - Warm and less humid today, showers/storms tonight - Pleasant and mostly dry next few days - Likely warmer and a chance of precipitation late week -- Warm and less humid today, showers/storms tonight -- A few lingering areas of fog or low clouds this morning will quickly mix out. While it will be warmer than normal again today, it will be noticeably less humid as dew points drop into the 50s and perhaps upper 40s. An upper level trough digging into the region from the northwest tonight will aid the development of showers and perhaps thunderstorms, as moisture around 10,000 feet / 700 mb may have just enough potential instability for convection and increased rainfall rates.
High pressure is situated over western ND this Sunday afternoon with clear skies across all of western and central ND. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level ridge will build over the Rockies and into the High Plains tonight and Monday. Lighter and more easterly winds will be found along and east of the Highway 03 corridor.
high pressure is starting to expand northeast across the local area.
223 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Cold front is still slated to arrive on the dry side Monday as nw flow aloft strengthens. The front will serve, however, to bring cooler and much more comfortable humidity levels into the region for the Tue.
Max temps will be generally in the lower to mid 70s with cooler 60s readings along Lake Superior. Troughing across the NE and GL region and deep troughing the PacNW will result in an anomalous ridge building over the inter mtn west.
247 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Messages of the Day - High pressure across the central US keeps skies clear and weather calm for the next couple days. A high pressure settled over the central CONUS paired with northwest upper level flow brings calm sunny weather to the region. Temperatures look to peak Monday reaching the low to mid 90's for many areas. A larger high pressure to the SW eventually shoves the current system out of the area. As the ridge continues to build from the SW, low level flow accelerates warm air and more moisture into the region. While temperatures look to retreat back to the high 80's toward the end of the week, dew points in the low 70's make it feel much steamier than what has been experienced over the past few days.
These models are depicting storms forming near Lost Trail Pass and moving north-northeast over the Bitterroot Valley, the Highway 1 corridor, I-90 east of about Superior to possibly as far east as Butte, Missoula, then moving up through the Mission and Swan Valleys towards Glacier Park, potentially clipping Kalispell.
222 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The primary short term concerns are the potential for severe storms tonight and again Monday evening along with the warmer than average temperatures expected.
High pressure will build across the area into Monday with cold advection in the wake of the short wave/front ushering in slightly cooler, dry air. Upper ridge over the western US will dominate the weather through mid week.
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 (Issued 240 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Vigorous short wave located just north of Lake Superior will take a dip to the southeast as upper level low pressure amplifies. Fairly strong low to mid level shear associated with wave and passing cold front may however have just enough mid-level moisture to trigger a few thunderstorms to the north, which could slip into the northeast CWA this evening, with the Fond du Lac, Berlin and Sheboygan areas possibly seeing a brief storm.
116 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 93 68 87 63 / 20 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 90 66 83 61 / 30 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 90 64 83 60 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 62 81 57 / 30 10 10 10 0.
1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Surface/low level trough across central South Dakota this morning, but more than likely its a weak push of warm advection responsible for morning convection near the Pierre area. A weak trough will set up from southwest to northeast across the state today. There could be a few showers or thunderstorms across the southern tier of the forecast area associated with the trough through tonight. High pressure will also build back in at the sfc this evening. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to persist under the upper ridge through the short term with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. The main initial focus in the long range will be on the building heat early in the period followed by the potential for a bit a cooler trend toward the end of the week.
1104 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge across much of the western CONUS with convective complex across the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, weak surface trof resides across the central and western Dakotas into eastern Wyoming. Another very warm day is on tap for the area, as the upper ridge continues to slowly build across the southwest CONUS. Upper ridge continues to build over the western CONUS on Monday, with temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the area.
High temperatures will likely be in the lower to middle 90s for Monday afternoon. That strong upper level ridge will be the main feature that will influence our weather through the next 7 days.
404 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak cold front will pass southeast of the area this evening. A second cold front will move through Monday afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier air will then work into the region for mid week. Temperatures will be able to drop into the lower 60s. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near the track of the low and affect the northeast part of the forecast area in the afternoon and early evening. High pressure will start to build in Monday night bringing clearing.
256 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 We've had a few puffs of convection in the higher foothills on the upslope wind convergence line, but this has generated clouds that will further hinder surface based convection in areas just east of the mountains and this initial batch has settled down. Model soundings and statistical guidance suggest another 2 to 4 degrees F of warming from today, which will put the warmer areas near 100.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains off to the west of the area.
We've warmed considerably from our cool morning lows thanks to southwest winds that developed ahead of a cold front that at 2pm was just entering the northwest portion of the MPX CWA. We'll see the ridge to our west build east across the Dakotas which will foster subsidence and clear skies.
452 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 High pressure will briefly build across the area tonight. Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will push southeast across the area on Monday.
1121 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Cold front is getting fairly close to the Ohio River based on wind and pressure fields, but lower dewpoints are still lagging behind. A weak cold front will approach from the north today and serve as a focus/lifting mechanism for additional convection late this morning into the afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will advect in behind the front overnight, which will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 60s by tomorrow morning.