Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over the Western United States will keep very warm temperatures through the rest of this week and during the 4th of July. The ridge over the region is forecast to flatten on July 4th as a trough approaches Idaho and Montana.
423 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE TO MID LEVELS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
417 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
359 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WE EXPECT THE LONG WAVE THROUGH AND SEA BREEZE TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY.
456 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEN WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU.
AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES SOUTHWARD.
MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS AM, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/ NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U. WITH OUR REGION ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING.
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE HIGHS HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS SUPPRESS THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS TODAY.
443 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY. COLD FRONT. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER. AND KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA.
THE SUMMER- TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700 MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT.
The upper level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge extension southeast into west central Texas. (Thursday through Wednesday) Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY AREAS.
SEVERAL STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL.
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST- CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY DAYS END. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
106 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
That threat should end quickly with the increase moisture and warmer air coming in though.
649 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS EXITS THE AREA THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE MOJAVE DESERT. THE FEATURE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE THIS CONVECTION SHOWS UP IN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS A WAVE LIFTING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO THAT SYNCHRONIZES WITH A VORT LOBE EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW UP THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
629 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY. COLD FRONT. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER. AND KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST, BUT AREAS FROM THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ROSEBURG EAST WILL LIKELY ENJOY THEIR WARMEST DAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE RIGHT OVERHEAD. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 138W.
THIS POSES A CHALLENGE FOR MIN TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT AS COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BUT WITH THE WARM GROUND THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
Forecast soundings from Kansas City southward show a very favorable snow profile with the exception of the lowest two thousand feet or so, where temperatures and wet bulb temperatures are several degrees above freezing. But the low-level temperatures are not supportive of snow reaching the ground, or at least accumulating much. If precipitation rates are high enough, this could completely alter the low-level thermal profile and overwhelm warm ground temperatures, resulting in a slushy mess. With precipitation likely, temperatures several thousand feet above the surface at or below freezing, and strong forcing/potential for dynamic cooling, have gone with a non-diurnal temperature trend along and south of I-70. Immediately in the wake of the Friday system, the parent PV anomaly/trough will spin through the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, clipping the northeastern half of the forecast area.
UPPER LEVEL QUAZI- ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS UPPER AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL THE LOWER LEVELS BE TOO DRY? NEWER MODEL RUNS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER SOME RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY START OUT AS VIRGA AS THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED.
A cold front will move into the Big County late Friday morning then approach the Interstate 10 corridor by late in the afternoon. Daniels (Friday night through Thursday) The northern stream trough axis will pass to our north Friday night, providing one "last hoorah" for rain chances heading into the weekend.
BASICALLY WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
The period starts off with high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. The generation of the rainfall will be a result of the approach of H5 troughing ahead of a closed H5 low digging southeast out of the northern plains.
ELONGATED UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER MN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK TROWAL TO WRAP INTO OUR CWA FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING WEAKER/ELONGATED WITH TIME. RESIDUAL TROUGH AXIS TO THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS LATE. ANY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WITH AFTERNOON HEATING GIVEN LACK OF INVERSION AND THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
345 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY FRIDAY. COLD FNT REALLY MORE LIKE A SERIES OF FNTS OR SFC TROFS OVRNGT BRINGING GRADUALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. SFC TROF PROVIDES SOME LL CONV TO WORK AN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THE LAKE. ESP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MADISON AND OTSEGO CNTY.
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WE WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 30S WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT SEE AS BIG A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
The cold front has stalled just north of our area along a line from Charleston to Montgomery to south Mississippi.
343 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HOW THE ELONGATED H5 TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE DAKOTAS AND THE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AFFECTS OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. PROMINENT FEATURES ON THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR CHARTS WERE THE BROAD H5 TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTRY.
Rain should develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas. South winds around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with the cold front. Warmer mid 40s will be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.
335 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 A STRONG LATE WINTER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
353 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER NORTH FLORIDA. AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND COOLER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE RADARS WERE LIT UP AT MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE A STALLED COLD FRONT WAS NOTED. THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRIDAY EVENING BUT BY MIDNIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND PROLONG RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERED THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE FROM CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN TO NRN WISCONSIN. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN TODAY AS 850-MB TEMPS ARE FROM -4 TO -8C.
OTHER WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE DROPPING SOUTHWEST IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN MN INTO CNTRL ND ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS IN WCNTRL MN. SAME TREND INTO FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AND UPPER HIGH FORMS IN ERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. WITH TEMPS FRIDAY ABV FREEZING MORE MELTING ANTICIPATED AND WITH QUITE LIGHT SNOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED.
247 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT ABOUT AT AN END AS THE FRONT IS UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS THIS AFTN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO SURGE NWD WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT. WILL TRIM TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GIVEN LACK OF MEANINGFUL CLOUD COVER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR ERN ZONES AND PERSISTENT TREND FAVORING WARMER TEMPS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR SOUTH (ALONG THE GULF COAST), AND SPREAD SHOWERS NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED E TO W ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTN HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
306 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGH PUSHING TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH SETTLING OVER MANITOBA. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW.
1047 AM PDT THU MAR 17 2016 Chilly high pressure will build into the Inland Northwest today bringing mostly sunny skies and a chilly north wind.
Tried to lean toward the low end of the guidance envelope, but may not be cool enough. An upper low will take shape over the Upper Midwest Friday, and a disturbance will slide eastward to its south and right over our region late Friday and Friday night.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WELL. HAD PLENTY MORE 80S TODAY BUT MOSTLY IN THE VALLEYS AS COOLER MARITIME AIR LINGERED AT THE COAST WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AT TIMES. THIS COOLER AIR WILL PUSH FARTHER INLAND FRIDAY SUCH THAT THE VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A GOOD 5 DEGREES OF COOLING FROM TODAY.
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
241 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
More MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS expected tonight ahead of another cold front due to arrive around 18/15Z. This front will push the lower CIGs south and shift winds once again from the north and northeast. /issued 435 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/ A broad upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest with westerly flow over the CWA. A cold front is beginning to move into the area which will cool temperatures today closer to normal values. Another stronger cold front is expected to push into the area during the day on Friday resulting in high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the Western Low Rolling Plains to the 80s across the Rio Grande Valley.
NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL DIVQ AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WERE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FAVORABLE ELEMENTS OF SNOW PRODUCTION DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS 7H FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
THE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WAS VERY DRY AT THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FRIDAY.
1225 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS/SNOW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MARQUETTE MI OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING ELONGATED E/W CLOSED LOW ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM UPPER MI THROUGH NORTHERN MN/ND. CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
MAY SEE SOME ISO SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY - MAYBE NEAR/ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/ THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS NORTH OF CROCKETT AND MADISONVILLE AT 9 AM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WERE HELPING TO PRODUCE SEA FOG OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS AND SURROUNDING LAND AREAS ALONG THE COAST.
235 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 ELONGATED WEST-EAST RUNNING REGION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE CANADIAN/U.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.
AS EVIDENCE BY THE COOLER CLOUDS TOP ON IR AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF LIGHT PRECIP BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NODAK.
THE GFS FOCUSES PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND GA.
147 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 AVIATION SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT.
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING THE SURFACE THUS FAR AS INDICATED BY AREA METAR OBSERVATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
218 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
550 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
A GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NE PLAINS.
Showers and thunderstorms will push east and south during the day and evening as the cooler air continues to move further into the area.
630 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WE WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 30S WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT SEE AS BIG A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. THERE IS A SHARPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MAIN PATTERN OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT HAS MOVED TOWARD THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST.
305 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SHOULD GO TO ALL SNOW ONCE THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE TIME TO WEB BULB. THIS PESKY UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO PUSH EAST SAT AND BY 00Z SUN WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THINK THAT TEMPS ON WED AFTERNOON WILL ALSO PUSH 80 SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. LAWSON THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL THIS EVE WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING ALMOST DUE S SHUD ARRIVE KRSL ~18/00Z TO INDUCE A WSW-NE WSHFT BY 02Z.
A dry upper ridge will begin sliding over the Northern Rockies tonight and persist through the weekend. Daytime highs will start out a little cooler than normal as well on Friday as we recover from the departing northerly flow and cool air mass.
136 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN ITSELF OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING (ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE THE GROUND COULD TURN BRIEFLY WHITE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS). IMPACTS: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO WILL HELP TO USHER OUT AN OCCLUDING LOW STALLED OUT OVER THE STATE.
354 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
BUT THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AND INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO GO ALONG WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AS AN EAST-WEST MID LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
A MEAN LAYER ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH A NEAR-REPEAT OF TODAY'S CONDITIONS.
MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NE BRINGING A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS.
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A dome of high pressure lies over the northern Gulf rendering light and variable winds over the area today. Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be around 40-60%, with the highest values in the Panhandle and across north Florida. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low 90s.
320 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 THE STAR OF THE SHOW THIS WEEKEND IS THAT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SE ACROSS KS SAT & SAT NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE NORTHWEST KS SAT AFTERNOON THEN CROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING/REACHING THE SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK BORDER SUN MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL GET A SWIFT KICK BY A STRONG/SHARP MID-UPPER DECK TROF THAT WILL SURGE E/SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROF SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN OCCLUDE OVER ONTARIO ON SUN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN AMPLIFYING NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF PUNCHING NW ACROSS QUEBEC.
MVFR CIGS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF KSAT/KSSF AND HAVE BEGUN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE LOWER MVFR CIG THRESHOLD AS A PRECAUTION. KAUS APPEARS TO BE BEST SITUATED WITH MVFR BEING THE LOWEST CATEGORY OVERNIGHT UNTIL A RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE COASTAL ZONES AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
458 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY.
UPSTREAM 7H WAVE DAMPENS OUT AND WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO BUILDING SHORT WAVE RIDGING. AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPANDING SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE OVER SRN WI AND THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT UNDER M/CLEAR SKIES. MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS A 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.