Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, a strong upper level ridge over western North America extended well into northwestern Canada and eastern Alaska with a well established upper level low over Hudson Bay. An associated surface cold front will sweep southeast across the state this morning as well, but mainly affecting the eastern half of the state. Over western ND, neutral temp advection this morning with warm advection from the west this afternoon as the western upper level ridge builds eastward. Tonight as the western ridge continues building eastward, warm advection aloft will expand eastward across the state.
This has induced frontogenesis in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere. A big pattern change will commence from mid to late week as an upper level ridge builds into the central United States.
Wly winds and mild morning temps will lead to another day of high temps in the lower to middle 40s. An upper trough and cold front will arrive for the late afternoon and evening with mostly cloudy skies and small chances of snow showers forecast. Forecast soundings do show unstable conditions in the low levels. Brisk nwly winds and cold advection will drop temps into the lower 20s by Wed AM.
315 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 In a cold air advection pattern behind yesterdays frontal passage, will see cooler temperatures for today, albeit it still above normal for this time of year. Both the GFS and the NAM are suggesting stratus dropping through Minnesota overnight, and cannot rule out that this would scrape our far eastern MN/IA zones after 06Z, though at this time it appears that much of this low level moisture will remain to the east of our area.
305 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Another day with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees, ahead of a cold front which will track through southern Lower Michigan this evening. 00z Raob out of MSP showed a 925 mb temp of 4 C, and although the bulk of this warm air will sink southeast into the Northern Ohio Valley, 00z euro/RAP/Regional Gem still sporting temps of 1-3 C at 925 mb during the afternoon, and based on yesterday's results, favor warmer NAM/Euro mos guidance for Today, mid to upper 40s.
331 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 Sharp ridge over the western CONUS between Aleutian low and cutoff low over the Texas panhandle and Hudson Bay low. Even with clear skies and good insolation gusty northwest winds will advect cooler air from the northwest across western and northern Nebraska. Jet stream to the northeast keeping much cooler temperatures at bay. Tonight winds becoming light westerly downslope component as upper ridge and warmer air aloft pushes east across western Nebraska.
The main challenge for the short term will be temperatures as an upper ridge slides over the valley (ridge axis centered over MN around 18Z).
925/850mb temps really take off on Sunday as even warmer air pumps into the region.
Upper level ridge over the central High Plains will push east today with increasing west southwesterly flow aloft in its wake. Warmer temperatures are in store for far southwest Kansas where increasing thickness values will warm temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Temperatures along the Highway 281 corridor should at least reach the mid to upper 60s. As surface dewpoints continue to increase, overnight lows by Sunday morning will be some 10 degrees warmer than this morning.
Some upper ridging was located across the Plains early this morning with a low level jet situated from the Plains into the mid MS valley. The pressure gradient will tighten up over the western half of the CWA with low pressure to the west and a high to the east.
414 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Ridging aloft over the plains will provide a generally quiet next 24 hours, with the anticipated warming underway. GOES-16 imagery fairly impressive with a warm frontal boundary lifting northward into southern Nebraska, with temperatures in the 40s to around 50 south of the boundary.
Slightly warmer temperatures across the valleys today will keep snow levels between 4000 and 6000 ft, resulting in rain through this afternoon. Snow levels will decrease through the evening and overnight hours as a cold front approaches eastern Oregon. The cold front will continue to progress eastward on Sunday, with models hinting at an increasingly unstable atmosphere through the afternoon.
648 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Strong high pressure then settles over the Mid Atlantic states through Sunday.
Surface winds are light and variable early this morning with high pressure over the Ohio Valley. As high pressure slides east today, a 5-10 mph southeast wind will develop, gradually veering southerly later in the day. Quiet weather continues through Sunday with upper level ridging building through the region.
1039 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. High pressure will slowly build in this morning and the main upper level trough will glide toward the east. Increased sunshine, moderating temperatures and dry conditions expected Sunday as a rather strong upper level ridges moves through the Upper Midwest, pulling warmer air northward ahead of it.
Dry conditions will return this afternoon and remain in place for the remainder of the weekend with high pressure in place. High pressure will be situated to the east tonight into Sunday.
Northwest flow aloft gives way to upper level ridging moving into the region today. thus much warmer temperatures. Leaned slightly warmer than guidance over the majority of the forecast area resulting in nudging up temperatures a couple of degrees today.
614 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure will build into the area promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. Temperatures should rise above freezing by 9 am. A slightly cooler airmass will push into the area as dry high pressure moves closer to the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop back down to near freezing tonight. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to near normal, in the lower 60s north to upper 60s south. This will result in temperatures several degrees warmer than the previous few nights, in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
647 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Cold high pressure will extend across the eastern U. High pressure will continue to ridge Swd along the Middle Atlantic coast, beneath a progressive ridge aloft forecast to build Ewd from the MS Valley. It will consequently remain cool and dry, with temperatures similar to, or slightly milder than those of Sat, owing to modification of the high.
Another surge of moisture associated with a cold front is still expected to begin to impact the region late this afternoon and evening, and will bring more mountain snow, with a mix of rain and snow to the valleys. 2 to 4 inches of snow will be possible for the higher valleys, with the mountains and mountain passes along the MT/ID border seeing slightly higher amounts. At this time, the cold front is expected to move through west central and southwestern Montana after midnight tonight, with some models hinting at the front stalling somewhere between Missoula and Butte and points south into Lemhi County, ID. Several inches of snow, up to 6 inches or more, will be possible for the higher terrain, with 1 to 2 inches for the Missoula/Bitterroot valleys by late morning Sunday.
So we will have another dry sunny day with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s northernmost zones to around 70 and the lower 70s elsewhere.
549 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Weak warm front across northern MO and central IL will continue moving northward today. Upper level ridge over the Plains will move eastward into our area.
936 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Cold high pressure will extend across the eastern U. -MWS High pressure will continue to ridge Swd along the Middle Atlantic coast, beneath a progressive ridge aloft forecast to build Ewd from the MS Valley. It will consequently remain cool and dry, with temperatures similar to, or slightly milder than those of Sat, owing to modification of the high.
A low pressure system moving inland through the western states will bring cooling through Sunday with a chance of mostly light precipitation on Sunday along and west of the mountains and in the upper deserts.
Another dry and mild day in store today before a powerful cold front sweeps across the area tonight and Sunday bringing snow along with gusty winds and much colder temperatures.
732 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. High pressure will slowly build in this morning and the main upper level trough will glide toward the east. Increased sunshine, moderating temperatures and dry conditions expected Sunday as a rather strong upper level ridges moves through the Upper Midwest, pulling warmer air northward ahead of it.
Easterly flow was observed the lower levels, while mainly westerly winds were observed in the mid and upper levels.
611 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Aviation A strengthening area of high pressure will drift east of Lower Michigan today.
Temperatures will continue to average well above seasonal climo, though an increase in clouds on Sunday is expected to shade things a tad cooler along/east of the turnpike.
Sely winds and warm advection will continue into tonight as an upper ridge axis builds over the region. Broad ridging aloft will extend across the Great Lakes, with a potent wave breaking along the Pacific Northwest coastline. Low to mid level warm advection will occur on southerly winds with the surface warm front pushing north through the area. A bit of drizzle isn't out of the question either as the low-levels saturate.
A warm front across central arching into northwest North Dakota as of 08 UTC is forecast to propagate east through the morning and wash out through the afternoon. A second warm front, currently manifested as a trough across central Montana this morning, will propagate east across western and central North Dakota this evening and tonight. This supports a mild day, with highs in the mid to upper 50s southwest where southwest winds are forecast this afternoon, with cooler but still mild highs in the 40s for most of the central where south-southeasterly winds are expected through the afternoon.
953 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Canadian high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through tonight. Tonight will be cold again and much of the area will have freezing temperatures. It will not be as cold Sunday night because of air mass modification and developing onshore flow as the ridge shifts eastward.
Best rain chances and a majority of the highest rainfall totals still look to be setting up near the coast and offshore.
1012 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure is moving over the east coast.
1035 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure will continue to drift over the eastern U.
Clouds increase this morning with cold frontal rains reaching the far North Bay later this morning then spreading south of the Golden Gate after 4 pm. Much cooler Sunday with post frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms as snow levels lower from 2000 to 3000 feet.
Northwest flow energy aloft tops the ridge and spills its cloud cover across especially our north/east ptns FA, even as warm air advection high clouds remain poised just to our southwest.
To the West an upper short wave trough of low pressure near the Baja and West parts of Mexico continued to shift east with a large area of moisture lifting across Mexico, and adjacent sections of New Mexico, Texas and around the upper ridge to the East. The slow movement of the trough will continue to supply a series of disturbances over the forecast area keeping rain chances in store through the weekend and into the start of the work week. IN wake of weekend system a stronger storm system in the Pacific Northwest will move inland across the Northern sections of the country and Southern Canada with the associated trough of low pressure amplifying South through the Rockies and out into the Plains. A large surface with the system will have a series of cold fronts dropping South and Southwest.
High pressure will shift east today ahead of an area of low pressure that will bring gusty winds to the area through the weekend.
Surface warm front had lifted north of all but the far NE corner of the CWA (Brown County) by 09Z per surface obs and GOES-16 IR imagery. Winds looks to remain in the 10 to 20 kt range overnight, further aiding in keeping low temperatures on the higher side. The main story for Sunday and Sunday night remains the low level moisture advection. While moisture will be on the increase, chances for measurable precip don't appear to be to good as the low level moisture return remains capped by an elevated mixed layer and there is little forcing progged to break the cap. With this in mind, have kept highs across eastern portions of the forecast area in the lower and middle 60s.
This will be especially true in the higher terrain.
The aforementioned southerly winds will continue to increase Sunday morning as the cold front portion of the storm system continues to push towards Eastern Colorado and Western Colorado. In addition to these strong winds the cold front will bring the potential for precipitation across the forecast area on Sunday. At lower elevations expect rain with snow for the higher elevations above 7,000 feet. Snow levels will drop Sunday night as cold air fills in behind the cold front.
/issued 354 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017/ An upper trough is over northern Mexico west of the CWA putting the area under south to southwest flow aloft. This trough has resulted in an increase in upper lift and low-level moisture is good across southern and eastern portions of the area. There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain due to mid-level lapse rates near 7 degrees C/km.
Areas over our far northeast such as Hoopeston may have a tough time cracking the 50 degree mark, while locations across far southwest Illinois, such as Winchester, will see afternoon temperatures in the lower 60s.
This low pressure area will then drag a Canadian cold front southeast into North Central Montana tonight, likely bringing a band of snow to the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, including Cut Bank. The cooler air will be slower to get into the valleys of Southwest Montana and to the south and east of the line, so showers should mostly be at most a rain/snow mix there.
945 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure building into the Carolinas today will send NE wind surge down the coast with winds increasing to 15-25G30-35 mph this afternoon and lesser winds inland. Max Temps slightly cooler than normal in the 60s across SE GA and coastal NE FL, with temps in the lower 70s across inland NE FL.
Elsewhere, satellite shows an influx of mid-level clouds from far West TX ahead of a decaying upper low crossing the Gulf of California. As the upper impulse treks over the Concho Valley tonight, modest ascent and sufficient saturation near the trough could embolden some showers or storms to wander north and threaten our southeast zones, but this is too conditional for any measurable rain chances. Despite winds veering southwest overnight in the wake of the minor trough, trajectories will moisten and open the door to a more robust round of stratus over much of the region. Some advection fog may also ensue ahead of the low clouds, but the few models showing such a scenario are often too bullish with the quality of moisture return which argues against fog for now.
High pressure will retreat east and warmer southerly flow will develop.
Skies will begin to clear this afternoon with highs ranging from the lower 30s northeast to lower 40s southwest.
1051 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 A 1044 mb high pressure system is centered northeast of the Ohio River Valley and bulges south through the Appalachians. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints near or just below 60.
A cold front continues to push slowly south of the Florida Straits early this morning, as expansive high pressure continues to build across much of the eastern third of the CONUS. South Florida remains in a tight pressure gradient between the frontal boundary and high pressure, and this has allowed for continued breezy to occasionally gusty northeast winds across the region. High pressure to the north will gradually shift eastward through the short term period, allowing the flow to gradually become more eastward with time.
Little change as strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard will maintain a northeast wind flow. A weak inverted trough associated with this surge boundary will actually make it less windy today, compared to yesterday, except maybe in Martin county. The pressure gradient has become baggy across the north/central waters associated with an inverted trough accompanying a wind surge, which was seen on satellite imagery offshore northeast Florida.
A compact upper trough approaches TX and will bring a near widespread rain event Today into Sunday. Model analysis of the upper level winds confirm a steady weakening, and the upper trough will continue dampening while lifting NE across TX through late Sunday. Mesoscale and synoptic scale model qpf values continue to target the higher precipitation regions to focus south of Hwy 90. Some late day clearing Sunday should lead to a modest warm-up to above climate norms to the south and west while northeast counties should be relatively cooler.
Currently, pressure falls along the front range have allowed some lee-side troughing to develop across the forecast area resulting in some gap winds for the Livingston and Nye areas.
540 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 CIGs/VSBYs gradually lower through MVFR this morning to IFR this afternoon and LIFR tonight as RA becomes more widespread moistening the lower levels. A compact upper trough approaches TX and will bring a near widespread rain event Today into Sunday. Model analysis of the upper level winds confirm a steady weakening, and the upper trough will continue dampening while lifting NE across TX through late Sunday. Mesoscale and synoptic scale model qpf values continue to target the higher precipitation regions to focus south of Hwy 90. Some late day clearing Sunday should lead to a modest warm-up to above climate norms to the south and west while northeast counties should be relatively cooler.
606 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 As the upper trough moving across the Baja region this morning advances into the mainland of Mexico. As the upper trough lifts up into Texas tonight. Best rain chances and a majority of the highest rainfall totals still look to be setting up near the coast and offshore.
Dry high pressure was giving Mid Tn a very chilly morning with temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 20s. As the high pressure center moves to the east coast, southerly flow will begin. A nice temperature recovery will occur, with highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s Plateau. South winds will increase Sunday, bringing warmer temperatures along with increasing cloudiness.
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with a warming trend through the early portion of the week.
Afternoon satellite and radar show the cold front just beginning to nose its way into Central AL. The upper low centered on the panhandle of Florida is beginning to stream moisture in from the Gulf, which has increased storm and shower activity for the southeastern counties. Convection in the southeast is expected to gradually diminish as the upper trough pushing in the cold front begins to push the upper low southward. Storms and showers associated with the cold front will slowly transition from NW to SE this afternoon. 92/Baird The cold front is forecast to continue to pushing southward, although at a fairly slow pace, as initial driving force of the upper level trough lifts out to the northeast.
The large vortex/upper low over southern Ontario/northern Great Lakes will continue to influence the weather over mid-America as it gradually sinks southward across the Ohio Valley.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a strong area of low pressure over southwest Ontario with high pressure extended from the northern Rockies to the central Plains. This nearly vertically stacked surface/closed upper low to edge south into northern sections of Lake Superior tonight.
The first significant cold front of the season has finally pushed across the area.
A low pressure system over central Baja California will move north into southern California late Tuesday.
949 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Manual analysis of 12z upper-air data revealed an intense mid to upper-level low over Ontario into the upper Great Lakes with an amplified upstream ridge from western Canada into the Great Basin. In the low levels, an elongated anticyclone stretched from the northern Intermountain Region into the southern High Plains as of early afternoon. Expect these winds to quickly diminish this evening with clear skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Tomorrow (Tue), west-northwesterly downslope flow in the low levels will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures (compared to today) with gusty surface winds again developing by afternoon.
/Tonight/ Iowa remains in cyclonic flow overnight with a large upper level low pressure system situated to the northeast of the state over southern Ontario and Lake Superior. Dew points this afternoon have fallen in the lower 30s to lower 40s with good mixing up to near 750 mb. The Euro did have the better handle on the situation in that it retrogrades the low Westward and has a vort max rotating around the low.
805 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front with a line of showers will sweep through the region overnight.
WSR-88D indicated scattered showers and a few storms across the coastal waters in association with a weak area of low pressure along the east central Fl coast. This activity expected to remain across the waters as the low along the coast begins to move northeast and onshore winds back to the west by later tonight. Winds will continue to back and decrease tonight as an area of low pressure along the east central Fl coast moves northeast.
A ridge to the west continue to have the main sway as it moves eastward into northeast Montana. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: An upper ridge building into Montana today will stay in control across the area during this period.
614 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Manual analysis of 12z upper-air data revealed an intense mid to upper-level low over Ontario into the upper Great Lakes with an amplified upstream ridge from western Canada into the Great Basin. In the low levels, an elongated anticyclone stretched from the northern Intermountain Region into the southern High Plains as of early afternoon. Expect these winds to quickly diminish this evening with clear skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Tomorrow (Tue), west-northwesterly downslope flow in the low levels will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures (compared to today) with gusty surface winds again developing by afternoon.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a ridge of high pressure over the region with the ridge axis over Idaho and Montana. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s to lower 60, except in the mid 40s to mid 50s in the mountains and in the lower 30s to lower 40s in the higher valleys in mountainous areas. Tomorrow we will be on the western flank of the ridge so we will begin seeing more thin high clouds tomorrow afternoon. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 80s, which is 3-5 degrees cooler than the highs today.
Miami radar is detecting only stratiform light rain over the Gulf waters to the west and north of the lower Keys, with no thunderstorm activity in recent hours. However, there is a good deal of conditional instability in the sounding, so once the atmosphere moistens again in the lower troposphere it is likely that convective activity will resume towards the predawn hours. With the Keys situated at the base of a mid and upper level trough, the diffluent flow aloft favors thunderstorm development.