Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Heat index values will approach or exceed 105 degrees Mid to upper level ridging was centered over the Tennessee Valley region while cumulus clouds were developing across much of the area. Highs will range from the lower 90s east to the upper 90s west. Mid to upper level ridging will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley region tonight. Lows will range from near 70 in the higher elevations east to the mid 70s west and central. Mid to upper level ridging will move a east more on Tuesday, becoming centered over Northern Georgia. Highs will range from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid 90s elsewhere.
Expect that with this ridge of high pressure over us, that conditions will continue to get hotter with highs today in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 105 to 110 degrees. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Anomalous upper ridging centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will amplify today as a potent trough lifts through the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains.
Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs showed a warm front south of I-90, with dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the 90s south of the front, but 80s were beginning to expand across western Minnesota in the wake of some clearing from this morning's convection. Overnight the warm front will lift northward, and highs on Tuesday should quickly climb into the 90s. Forecast highs remain in the upper 90s, with 100 possible at a few locations if the thermal ridge remains in place longer during peak heating. This thermal ridge should hold off any convection, so Tuesday's forecast is still looking dry.
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (18Z TAFS) Southerly winds 20-25 mph at HOB/MAF will persist into the afternoon and then increase there and at most other TAF sites late afternoon/evening as the low-level jet develops.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the leeside trough axis, however it does not appear coverage of storms will be enough to generate much in the way of a cold pool, and most storms are expected to remain northwest of DDC this evening. The advancing cold front tomorrow will reach west central KS by afternoon before slowing down and eventually stalling out. The front is expected to stall out north of GCK-DDC line, so much of the forecast area will see highs in the lower 100s again.
An upper level ridge which currently covers much of the southeast U.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build across most of the Deep South early this afternoon.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to dominate over Texas. The subtropical ridge has shifted slightly to the east. The low level flow continues from the south with a fairly tight pressure gradient.
A ridge is centered over the Southeast tonight and tomorrow. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening but so far activity has been suppressed by ridging and an inversion around 5000 ft on forecast skew-t data. Tomorrow will be the same scenario with ridging in place and an inversion present as seen on forecast skew-t analysis.
This afternoon-Tonight: SW flow aloft is in place across the Plains with main region of diffluence/synoptic forcing still over the western Dakotas/Montana/Wyoming ahead of the deepening upper trough. Upper ridge builds solidly over the forecast area Fri and into the weekend, and with this the mercury will be on the rise.
231 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The H5 trough continues to get pushed east by the PacNW trough making landfall. As the trough moves across the state, it will bring along a cold front, which will bring temperatures downward tonight and tomorrow. The colder air will bring most areas near or below freezing tonight and tomorrow night, which will help limit the remaining snowpack from melting off.
(18Z TAFS) Southerly winds 20-25 mph at HOB/MAF will persist into the afternoon and then increase there and at most other TAF sites late afternoon/evening as the low-level jet develops. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) The subtropical ridge will remain in an anomalously far ewd location thru Wed AM, and heights in W TX/SE NM will show little deviation from the standard. It will be hottest across the wrn CWFA where highs Tue will still approach 105F in the lower elevations. Per the locations of said ridge, mid-level flow will be able to tap into some mstr as evident in the presence of mid-level theta-e ridge axis that today/this evening extends from far W TX-srn NM-EC NM and then Tue PM/evening from sw of GDP Mtns-SE NM-TX Panhandle.
24 Ridging aloft continues over the lower MS Valley, holding rain chcs in check and keeping hot conditions over the region.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 97 75 96 74 / 10 30 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 96 75 97 73 / 20 30 10 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 74 97 74 97 73 / 20 20 10 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 94 71 96 70 / 20 30 10 30 30.
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will move slightly further east into the Mississippi Valley today, allowing for temperatures to drop a few degrees compared to yesterday's highs.
1020 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. A strong upper ridge prevails across the region. A 595dm upper ridge will be centered over the region with dangerously hot and humid conditions continuing. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will lower heat index values a bit though conditions will still be very uncomfortable.
Overnight, WAA will continue and a warm front is progged to lift north Tuesday morning, bring a very hot and humid air mass into our region. This will create heat indices is the low 100's tomorrow prompting a Heat Advisory.
The upper high is moving over into the Tennessee valley as well for the short term helping to abate the mini heatwave.
In the wake of the MCS, a building high pres ridge will drive temperature about 10 degrees above the averages. This combined with the high humidity will drive heat indices toward the 100 mark, especially over East Central Ohio.
1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Rest of Today) Morning model guidance suggests that weather conditions across the local forecast area today will be dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure aloft centered across northern MS. Although a weak mid-level vorticity maxima dropping southeastward through the Lower OH Valley earlier this morning provided sufficient lift to initiate a few showers and thunderstorms earlier across western TN, this activity appears to be dissipating in both coverage and intensity, a trend that should continue as the weakening disturbance advances further southeastward into the TN Valley later this afternoon.
Warm front appears now to be slowly working its way to the north. Areas across northwestern IA have already warmed into the lower 90s, with heat indices near/above 100. Breezy conditions remain on tap tonight, ahead of a cold front tomorrow morning. Possible fly in the ointment with this would be lack of warming this afternoon, particularly in southwestern MN, which may lead to slightly cooler but still very mild lows. Aforementioned cold front moves through during the day on Tuesday.
This ongoing heat wave is the result of mid-level ridging that has been in place across the region for several days. With the axis of high pressure now shifting east of our region, highs are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow as much of the region is expected to be sub-100 degrees. Any triple digit readings should remain isolated and closer to the Graham/Breckenridge area. Mid-level ridging will result in minimal variations in temperature day-to-day, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 90s to low 100s and morning lows in the 70s. By late week, the mid-level ridge will shift back to the west, centering itself over the Southern Plains.
The latest hi-res model guidance has an MCS diving southward from Lake Erie towards the Blue Ridge and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday morning. As with today, confidence is low that any convection occurs, especially given that the heart of the upper level ridge will have built in across the area, so the POPs were blended with the latest guidance but left mostly intact from the previous forecast.
(Rest of Today) Morning model guidance suggests that weather conditions across the local forecast area today will be dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure aloft centered across northern MS. Although a weak mid-level vorticity maxima dropping southeastward through the Lower OH Valley earlier this morning provided sufficient lift to initiate a few showers and thunderstorms earlier across western TN, this activity appears to be dissipating in both coverage and intensity, a trend that should continue as the weakening disturbance advances further southeastward into the TN Valley later this afternoon.
The focus then shifts to our our west early Tuesday morning as an upper trough progresses across the InterMountain West. A cold front is expected to move through the region during the day.
Temperatures today will be a little cooler and winds will become even stronger with dangerous fire weather conditions developing across all of northern Arizona.
Gusty south winds (15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph) will persist though tonight, briefly subsiding overnight, then picking back up tomorrow morning as a tight pressure gradient remains poised over the area caused by the strengthening lee- side trough.
Gusty winds will lingering today ahead of a cold front moving southeast through northern Nevada. The cold front will continue south through the Mojave Desert tonight. The cold front is expected to progress and move southward later this afternoon and evening, with some stronger northerly winds moving through southern NV, southeast CA and eventually down the Colorado River Valley tonight. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today with highs right around normal for most areas and slightly below normal tomorrow afternoon. Broad trough will progress east through the Great Basin today. Meanwhile, cold front pushing south through central Nevada will shift winds from the northwest from Bishop east to Caliente. Cold front will sweep south through the remainder of southern Nevada, eastern California and northwest Arizona tonight. Northerly winds continue through Tuesday, especially within the lower Colorado River Valley.
322 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The mid-level synoptic pattern across the CONUS this afternoon consists of troughing over the western US and a ridge axis extending from the southeastern US toward the western Great Lakes region. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered in northern Colorado/southern Wyoming.
Drier conditions expected today with the departing area of low pressure. Another trough will swing through the region for Tuesday, to keep continued cooling temperatures and shower activity. Building high pressure anticipated Tuesday evening, with drier and warming conditions in the later week.
/issued 1020 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/ Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. A strong upper ridge prevails across the region. A 595dm upper ridge will be centered over the region with dangerously hot and humid conditions continuing. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will lower heat index values a bit though conditions will still be very uncomfortable.
1008 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 10AM UPDATE: The center of a low pressure system is currently transversing our CWA. Temperatures begin to trend cooler this afternoon given mostly cloudy skies and a cold frontal passage that will shift winds around to the west.
A second area of high pressure over the southeastern US will merge with this axis Tuesday and Tuesday night, and the reconfigured high will maintain moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys for much of the week. Episodes of weakly confluent and cyclonic flow will ride along the southern flank of the composite high pressure system, dragging moisture slugs through the Keys.
123 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Hot and dry high pressure will prevail into late week before a cold front likely impacts the region this weekend. Stretch of hottest weather begins today as amplifying upper level ridge continues to build into the Ohio Valley and SE CONUS. We will likely see some of the hottest temperatures of the year thus far, with highs in the lower to middle 90s and the warmest temperatures along and west of the I-95 corridor.
Tuesday features an upper trough lifting out of the Central Rockies which in turn nudges a weak dryline east toward an AMA-HOB line by peak heating. Temperatures will moderate back into the low to mid 90s on the Caprock, but still hover at or above 100 for most spots east of the escarpment across the Rolling Plains.
This ongoing heat wave is the result of mid-level ridging that has been in place across the region for several days. With the axis of high pressure now shifting east of our region, highs are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow as much of the region is expected to be sub-100 degrees. Any triple digit readings should remain isolated and closer to the Graham/Breckenridge area.
Strong upper level ridging over the SE US (98-99. Upper level low over Eastern Mexico this afternoon will meander northward and should bring an increase in upper level moisture/cirrus into SETX tonight through Tuesday night.
Above normal temperatures will continue through the overnight hours as an upper high centers over the Southeast and moisture rich air continues to flow into the area.
A hot afternoon across South Florida as temperatures have soared into the low and mid 90s. As we move into Tuesday, high pressure with ridging aloft continues to build helping with a more easterly flow throughout the column. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s across much of the area, with triple digit heat indices. Deep layer ridging centered over the Southeastern portion of the country will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the rest of the week.
122 PM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Dry and warmer weather continues through mid-week. Another weather system will bring cooler weather and a chance of mountain showers by the end of the week into the weekend. Trough axis from yesterday has shifted off to the east, allowing for a return of dry, offshore flow. As trough axis shifts further to the east and ridging begins to build in, temperatures will warm back into the low 90s across the Valley on Tuesday.
Afternoon temps were in the low/mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-110 deg range across the majority of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. (Tomorrow through Monday) Upper level ridge of high pressure. is progged to become highly amplified across much of the Eastern CONUS into mid week in response to a low pressure system. the low pressure system is forecast to shift eastward across Canada. while the ridge of high pressure builds back westward and becomes highly amplified over the Central U. the dome of high pressure looks to be centered over the Central/Southern Plains.
252 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Current surface analysis shows Pacific cold front stretching from eastern MT to eastern WY, with weak low pressure along the front across northeast WY. Upper level analysis shows trough across the western US, with low pressure across western MT. Strong upper jet is in place on the east side of the trough from southwest WY to eastern MT and far western ND. Further south and east, CAPE values increase with the warmer temps and increasing moisture. Upper trough will move further east across the northern Rockies and northern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Front will be well east of the area Tuesday morning, with much cooler air and brisk winds in place.
A large synoptic ridge is centered over N MS. Overnight lows only look to reach the high 70s with urban cores struggling to break 80F.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): High pressure overhead continues to maintain the hot and dry conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley into Tuesday.
High pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft will keep us rain- free through Tuesday night. In the upper levels, the ridge over our area will shift northeast and get squeezed by troughs riding over the ridge towards the northeast US and off the southeast coast.
1138 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Drizzle has been falling from the low clouds east of the Black Hills, so have added mention in the forecast through mid-morning. Upper-level analysis shows a trough over the west coast, a ridge over the central states, and several large clusters of thunderstorms moving through the northern plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary separates high pressure to the north from low pressure to the south. As the upper trough swings into the northern/central Rockies today, potential vorticity advection will increase, and a cold front will approach our area. Northern and western parts of the area, affected first by the cold front, will remain cooler/drier, with highs only in the 70s. Nonetheless, expecting some thunderstorms to spark along the cold front mid- afternoon across northeastern WY/southeastern MT/northwestern SD.
1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a stout trough positioned over the PNW and the northern Rockies; this was a catalyst for storm development last night across portions of western Kansas and Nebraska. Meanwhile, there is a strong upper ridge extending from northern Mexico to the Tennessee Valley, which has been influencing much warmer temperatures across the region over the past couple of days. For today, the upper ridge will be more dominate across the region helping to promote temperatures rising into the upper 90s to mid 100s this afternoon.
427 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 A trough of low pressure will continue crossing the area tonight then move east into the Maritimes on Tuesday.
Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s in Colorado to the lower 70s in Hill City. Surface front will move through the area on Tuesday with temperatures closer to normal, ranging from the middle 80s in Colorado to the lower 90s in Hill City and Tribune with later frontal passage. Low temperatures will range from around 50 in northeast Colorado to the lower 60s in Hill City.
The upper trough over the region appears to have a structure that is similar to, and appears to behave like, a TUTT low, with a vorticity maximum at 250mb (center of 250mb low SW of BRO), and with associated convection early this morning east of the low.
351 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough over the Pacific Northwest.
An upper low will bring scattered showers and a convergence zone tonight.
Gusty winds will lingering today ahead of a cold front moving southeast through northern Nevada. The cold front will continue south through the Mojave Desert tonight.
High pressure Becomes Dominant this Week, With Lower Rain Tonight. Prevailing southwest to west flow aloft will be a bit weaker on Tuesday as the Atlantic ridge axis slides north over part of Central FL. Highs Tuesday forecast to reach the lower 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland. While still short of record heat, these hot (and eventually hotter) conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend as stable mid-level high pressure settles over the region. Lows will remain mild in the low to mid 70s. Ridge extended across the region aloft weakens into the weekend, as trough builds down across the Northeast U.
Cold temperatures are forecast again tonight and Monday morning with guidance supporting temperatures likely dropping below freezing for many areas east of the Cascades.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) The subtropical ridge will remain in an anomalously far ewd location thru Wed AM, and heights in W TX/SE NM will show little deviation from the standard. It will be hottest across the wrn CWFA where highs Tue will still approach 105F in the lower elevations. Per the locations of said ridge, mid-level flow will be able to tap into some mstr as evident in the presence of mid-level theta-e ridge axis that today/this evening extends from far W TX-srn NM-EC NM and then Tue PM/evening from sw of GDP Mtns-SE NM-TX Panhandle.
Any tornado threat should be confined to locations across Illinois, along and south of the warm front. Overnight, WAA will continue and a warm front is progged to lift north Tuesday morning, bring a very hot and humid air mass into our region. This will create heat indices is the low 100's tomorrow prompting a Heat Advisory.
A cool upper trough will stay with us through Tuesday with a reinforcing lobe coming in from the northwest tonight. The cool trough and showers will exit east Tuesday night.
910 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 A trough of low pressure will continue crossing the area overnight and will move east into the Maritimes on Tuesday.
Heat index values will approach or exceed 105 degrees Mid to upper level ridging was centered over the Tennessee Valley region while cumulus clouds were developing across much of the area. Mid to upper level ridging will move a east more on Tuesday, becoming centered over Northern Georgia. Highs will range from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid 90s elsewhere.
650 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough over the Pacific Northwest.
542 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Current surface analysis shows Pacific cold front stretching from eastern MT to eastern WY, with weak low pressure along the front across northeast WY. Upper level analysis shows trough across the western US, with low pressure across western MT. Strong upper jet is in place on the east side of the trough from southwest WY to eastern MT and far western ND. Further south and east, CAPE values increase with the warmer temps and increasing moisture. Upper trough will move further east across the northern Rockies and northern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Front will be well east of the area Tuesday morning, with much cooler air and brisk winds in place.
620 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The H5 trough continues to get pushed east by the PacNW trough making landfall. As the trough moves across the state, it will bring along a cold front, which will bring temperatures downward tonight and tomorrow. The colder air will bring most areas near or below freezing tonight and tomorrow night, which will help limit the remaining snowpack from melting off.
828 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 High pressure will continue to dictate the relatively drier weather pattern tonight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, temperatures will once again soar into the low to mid 90's with heat indicies around 105 degrees by the mid afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure also builds over the area.
/issued 240 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): High pressure overhead continues to maintain the hot and dry conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley into Tuesday.
The ridge axis that has been in place over the Florida Keys for the past few days has finally started to lift to the north, and winds have already increased in response. From synopsis, Gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will continue to develop overnight as a low level ridge axis pulls northward away from the Keys.
Overnight lows will only reach the low/mid 70s with dewpoints anchored in the 70s as well, providing very little recovery or relief overnight.
An upper low will bring scattered showers and a convergence zone tonight. Showers will taper on Tuesday as the low pulls away.
In the wake of the MCS, a building high pres ridge will drive temperature about 10 degrees above the averages on Tuesday. This combined with the high humidity will drive heat indices toward the 100 mark, especially over East Central Ohio.