Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Short wave will send cooler air into the area tonight and Mon. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level ridge was rotating through the area. Gusty northwest winds may be possible this evening as cooler air moves into the area. 500 hpa height falls mainly over southern Canada today will shift south into the area Mon morning as BC short wave digs into the area and concurrent ridge building occurs over western North America. It will remain dry through the end of the week as an upper ridge builds into the northern high plains and high pressure at the sfc sits over the Great Lakes.
301 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Weak high pressure will keep us dry through Monday.
252 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 It's been a very warm early September afternoon with a good push of 1000-850 mb warm advection and southwesterly surface winds ahead of the cold front that will push through later tonight into early Monday. A few of the high-res models do try to pop a few higher based showers above the cap farther south. Following the frontal passage, a cooler and breezy day Labor Day is expected, although temps will still reach the 70s in most spots. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers should develop in the afternoon amidst steep lapse rates as upper level troughing deepens across the Midwest, especially north of I-90.
Despite plentiful solar insolation /temps having warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s late this aftn/, the precip activity will be limited in strengthening given the weak UL trough and a relatively dry atmosphere in place /PWATS of 1.
1116 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest SK, with cold front stretching westward across far southwest Canada. Upper level analysis shows high pressure still centered over the Great Basin region, with large scale trough over the Great Lakes region. Hot and dry weather can be expected today, ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs will be well above average, 90s to around 100 degrees, with upper 80s across the higher Black Hills. The dry cold front will begin to move into northwest SD by late afternoon and then move southeast across the rest of the forecast area tonight. Much cooler air will be in place for the first half of the week, with highs below average.
Weak cold front pushed thru the region earlier today and we are seeing gusty winds across our eastern cwa this afternoon. After midnight and by sunrise, we will see a sharp Canadian cold front (currently in Alberta) drop through eastern MT. This will bring gusty northerly winds and much cooler temps for Monday.
Medium Mild and quiet night ahead as southwest winds strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front. The somewhat warmer 3 hourly mos temp guidance looks pretty good. Medium Aforementioned cold front slides through mid/late morning with warm thermal ridge out ahead so temps will rebound pretty quick before the front. The vorticity is also rather strung out/channelized as the mid level trough starts to carve into the area.
340 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Wx map shows weak high pressure over the SE US through TX, giving light and variable winds. Across the upper levels, a significant trough will deepen across the Central and East U.
A cold front will arrive with scattered thunderstorms from late afternoon through the evening hours. Much cooler temperatures and periodic light rain showers are expected for the middle of the week. Extreme energy over southern Sask/Man to begin to carve upstream trof into Monday with southern periphery of 80-90kt midlevel jet to press south/expand eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. Multi-spoked upper low to dominate mid week with cooler temps.
Much colder air (850mb temps dropping in the low to mid single digits) and gusty NW winds will increase wave heights, which will lead to increased swim risks Mon into Wed, mainly on Lake Superior. The cooler airmass will bring cold nights, with frost potential inland Tue night through Fri night. The greatest frost coverage/cold temps are expected Wed night and Thu night high pressure moves in, with great uncertainty in frost potential Tue night and Fri night. Fri through the weekend looks warmer and dry as upper ridging moves in. Winds at all TAF sites will also experience multiple wind shifts as the trough moves through. Tonight as a cold front pushes southeast across the lake, winds will briefly pick up to around 20 knots.
158 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 12Z MAF sounding continues to show NE mid level flow is in place with flow dominated by an upper ridge to the NW and an upper low just SE of CWFA. For Tue, the cold front is on schedule to arrive INVOF I-20 corridor before 21Z.
317 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A cold front has moved into northwest Minnesota and warm southwest winds were occurring across the Northland ahead of it.
600 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 It's been a very warm early September afternoon with a good push of 1000-850 mb warm advection and southwesterly surface winds ahead of the cold front that will push through later tonight into early Monday. A few of the high-res models do try to pop a few higher based showers above the cap farther south. Following the frontal passage, a cooler and breezy day Labor Day is expected, although temps will still reach the 70s in most spots. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers should develop in the afternoon amidst steep lapse rates as upper level troughing deepens across the Midwest, especially north of I-90.
Flow becomes more zonal tonight as the previous trough lifts further off to our NE. Not expecting as much fog overnight compared to last night and early this morning due to warmer overnight temps but still some patchy fog is possible across some areas. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s which is normal for this time of year.
332 PM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will remain firmly situated over the western CONUS over the next several days, keeping conditions generally dry and warm. Residual moisture trapped underneath the ridge will continue to be recycled each afternoon, resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
/19/ High pressure at the surface centered over Central Alabama will keep conditions quiet and warm across the mojority of the forecast area today. It will remain mostly clear tonight as the high continues to shift eastward.
High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen across the Intermountain West through the first half of the week. This high pressure will generate very warm temperatures and dry conditions across most of the state. The ridge will shift east midweek, along moisture to return to the forecast area for the end of the week.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY GET INTO THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST, BUT SHOWERS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. AS PART OF THE GENERAL MOISTURE SURGE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP AND MAY DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT IMPACTS TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREA WILL BE SLIGHT TO NONE.
Valleys in far eastern Kentucky look to be toward the cooler end of this range, but slightly lower crossover temperatures here as opposed to the Lake Cumberland region should offset in terms of fog potential. Ridges look to only drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s as light southwest winds preclude greater radiational cooling. Increasing moisture/warm air advection will continue Monday as troughing from the Hudson Bay low swings through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
1259 PM PDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will provide unseasonably hot temperatures and light winds into the early part of the work week.
the marine layer and weak onshore flow will keep areas near the coast cooler with higher humidities. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia will continue to track slowly towards the west northwest off the coast of northern Baja and beyond the islands off the Southern California coast. Some elevated convection is continues to move across the region, but so far only small accumulations have been reported, except for the San Bernardino mtns and portions of the high deserts where scattered tstms have developed and are likely to continue through this evening.
A mostly stationary high pressure system will be in place through the middle to end of this week, allowing for warm and dry conditions.
224 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will move in this evening and provide fair and warm weather for Labor Day.
300 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will build across the Carolinas through tonight, then drift offshore Monday.
553 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 00Z TAF issuance A few storms have developed across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend this afternoon. /issued 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017/ 12Z MAF sounding continues to show NE mid level flow is in place with flow dominated by an upper ridge to the NW and an upper low just SE of CWFA. For Tue, the cold front is on schedule to arrive INVOF I-20 corridor before 21Z.
358 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will move in this evening and provide fair and warm weather for Labor Day.
249 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A highly amplified pattern will develop this week characterized by ridging in the west and troughing in the east.
235 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Weak high pressure through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. Cooler behind front to end the week. Weak high pressure lingers through Monday. A strong cold front approaches Monday night.
1157 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 The dominant feature remains the high pressure centered over the Great Basin. Models suggest the center of this high will shift a bit east and south today which could explain why convective coverage is so minimal. Not much difference Monday as the high remains overhead. The huge ridge building over the Great Basin and much of the western U.
A high pressure is over the western Atlantic, to the east of the Carolinas and a trough extends from the coastal waters of New York towards the south-southwest across the Florida peninsula. On Monday, this high will extend to the west reaching northern Florida.
156 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will build across the southeastern states through Monday bringing dry air and near normal temperatures.
Much colder air (850mb temps dropping in the low to mid single digits) and gusty NW winds will increase wave heights, which will lead to increased swim risks Mon into Wed, mainly on Lake Superior. The cooler airmass will bring cold nights, with frost potential inland Tue night through Fri night. The greatest frost coverage/cold temps are expected Wed night and Thu night high pressure moves in, with great uncertainty in frost potential Tue night and Fri night. Fri through the weekend looks warmer and dry as upper ridging moves in. Winds at all TAF sites will also experience multiple wind shifts as the trough moves through.
237 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Large amplitude pattern in place across the CONUS this afternoon with a large area of high pressure across the western U. and a trough across the northeastern U.
449 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will move in this evening and provide fair and warm weather for Labor Day.
1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 For the 03/18z TAFs, a weak upper trough overhead has resulted in the development of a few isolated showers along the Interstate 30 corridor.
349 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will build across the Southeastern States through Monday bringing dry air and near normal temperatures.
128 PM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Water vapor shows large upper ridge covering the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft carrying smoke through the Northern Plains. At the surface, low is centered over eastern ND with surface trof extending through central SD, and cold front extending into southeast MT. Red flag conditions continue to spread east across the cwfa within the hot/dry airmass ahead of the cold front. Cold front will push through the region tonight, and usher in much cooler air that will continue into the middle of the week as flow aloft becomes more northerly.
207 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Another hot day is anticipated across much of the area on Monday before a strong cold front arrives late in the day and into the evening and overnight hours. The only concern will be a strong cold frontal boundary that will push into northern KS and eventually southward across central KS by Mon morning.
328 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Climatological conditions will continue for the next couple of days with highs in the low 90s everywhere but the coast and a weak sea breeze providing very isolated afternoon showers.
With the moisture increase and the cloud return, lows tonight will be much warmer than they have been in recent days, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Low level moisture is advancing ahead of an upper level trough which will move across the area on Sunday. With the trough approaching from the northwest, winds just above the surface will begin to scour out some of the moisture during the day on Sunday, ahead of the lift from the trough itself. Otherwise, looking for highs pretty close to where they are ending up today, with highs in the low 60s. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Rain chances will end as the upper trough exits our area Sunday night. The weak cold front will push south through the rest of west central Texas prior to Midnight.
Kept the low chance mention of accumulating snow into the early/mid afternoon in central ND. Also, southerly winds ahead of the warm front are a bit stronger than previously forecast. especially for the higher elevations of the Coteau - roughly from Minot to Jamestown areas. The low level warm advection has been supporting steady flurries across much of central North Dakota this morning. The Superblend guidance trended the highs down 1 to 2 degrees over previous forecast implying the inversion will be late to break, or at least not see as robust mixing. Tonight the warmer air/subsidence moves across the region at h850 and in general this will continue eroding the clouds while holding temperatures up a bit.
1247 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 Cold temperatures should continue as building high pressure ends any remaining snow showers today.
A cold front moved through north central Idaho and western Montana earlier today, largely bringing an end to freezing rain across the region. Behind the front, scattered showers have developed, which will bring periods of snow to the higher terrain and snow, or a rain snow mix, to valleys. Shower activity will gradually decrease for the most part tonight as weak high pressure builds over the area.
The low clouds will arrive from the south and drizzle and rain is likely over the eastern half of Oklahoma.
However, the prominent upper trough over the eastern U. As high pressure moves through the Midwest, our highs today will remain quite cold, close to 10 over the deeper snow pack. Have leaned more toward the colder NAM solution in that regard, with temperatures mainly in the lower 30s late afternoon into much of Sunday night. NAM forecast soundings would suggest more of a freezing rain issue.
1244 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 A deep area of low pressure will remain across the northern Canadian Maritimes today. High pressure will build south of the region this weekend.
1207 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 A pressure ridge will extend along the East Coast through Sunday.
440 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The latest surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered to out northwest across central illinois. This area of high pressure will continue to move east across the Ohio Valley tonight. GIven the similar setup This high pressure will slide east and eventually setup across the Virginia and North Carolina coast line Sunday afternoon. This will allow a little more advection of relatively warmer air into the area. The temperatures will still remain below normal with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 30s for most locations. Then we switch to a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain throughout the morning and early afternoon from west to east.
The high clouds coupled with the gradual increase in moisture will lead to a warmer overnight /versus recent nights/ with 30s and 40s expected.
255 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 At 2 PM CST, area under arctic high pressure moving into Illinois with light east winds and sunny skies with temperatures still very cold in the 5 to 10 degrees above zero range.
High pressure centered northeast of our CWA will dominate. Although temperatures will be warmer today than the last several days, a dry and colder than normal day is still on track. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: The very cold trough responsible for this past week's cold outbreak will continue to shift northeast of the area this weekend. The ArkLaMiss is currently on the outer margins of arctic high pressure that is moving through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region today.
/issued 853 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018/ We started off the weekend with another day of cold temperatures with some freezing temps reported over the northern counties north of Hernando County along the Nature Coast. Most places are already above freezing at this time and will continue to warm up nicely under mostly sunny skies through the day. With that being said, temperatures will still run about 10 degrees below average with highs expected in the low 50's for the northern counties and low 60's from Tampa Bay southward. High pressure to remain north over the region keeping NE-E winds over the E Gulf waters through the weekend combined with evening and overnight surges for elevated winds and seas into the SCEC range.
1156 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2018 After looking at recent trends with high res models and potential for dynamic lift over southeast Wyoming ahead of the upper level trough tonight, decided to increase POP and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Sierra Madre Range for 4 to 8 inches of snow. Downsloping should act to hinder pcpn over the plains with most of the snow falling over the higher peaks.
Moisture ahead of the system will deepen as the day progresses with little chance for precipitation before noon, then becoming likely, mainly over the higher terrain, during the afternoon. Tonight will be the most active period of the storm as the trough carries from the western Great Basin then across eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight. The lower valleys will have rain or a rain/snow mix initially until temperatures cool sufficiently, limiting accumulations. As the trough exits south of the region late tonight snowfall will diminish from northwest to southeast across the area. Subsidence in the wake of the trough will cause showers to decrease to scattered coverage by mid-morning Sunday with all but a few flurries remaining by midday.
308 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U.
First, is the PoP's for the lower elevations later today as short wave rounds the ridge aloft this afternoon. That said, there is a slight chance of some brief freezing precipitation. For Sunday, there may be a few snow showers over the higher terrain, but we expect generally dry conditions. Temperatures will likely remain above normal, and actually on the warmer side for the eastern river valleys as the arctic air mass will be gone. Weak ridging remains in place to start the period, followed by another shot of wintery weather. Shallow ridging will allow plenty of mid level moisture, and associated cloud cover over the area.
129 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2018 As a Pacific low pressure trough moves across the area tonight, snow across the west will spread east through the evening, tapering off Sunday morning. Most of the lower elevations can expect an inch or less. Behind the trough colder air will move from northwest to southeast.
1119 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 Another quiet and cold weather day with high pressure across the mid Mississippi River valley. A trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will cross the Rockies tonight and onto the Plains Sunday. Due to warm aloft, there probably will not be ice in the clouds, and with surface temperatures below freezing, there is an opportunity for light freezing drizzle or freezing rain for a short period before warming above freezing to allow for just drizzle or rain. We do have some very minor icing forecast in extreme southeast NE/southwest IA Sunday morning, with just isolated slick spots all the way north to I80 where freezing drizzle or light snow could occur, but with no accumulation.
There will be a window where rain and snow showers will be possible as the main upper trough axis shifts south and eastward into north central New Mexico toward Sunday morning. An additional 2 inches of snow will be possible over the higher terrain through midday, while any pcpn across the plains will likely fall as rain or perhaps a rain snow mix through the morning.
Light northwesterly winds early this morning will give way to northeasterly winds later this morning as a reinforcing shot of cooler air is injected across the southeast by high pressure sliding across the upper Midwest.
/issued 325 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018/ The mean trough remains anchored over the east early this morning, resulting in well below normal temperatures for most of the eastern CONUS. This wave has driven a weak, reinforcing cold front across the Mid-South which will temporarily stall the warming trend. Northeast winds today will keep afternoon temperatures in the 30s across most of the Mid-South, although some areas south of I-40 are expected to reach the lower 40s. The eastern trough will move off the coast tonight with quasi- zonal flow aloft setting up over the region for Sunday. Southerly winds will resume Saturday night and continue on Sunday as the surface anticyclone moves east.
Upper level trough over the region will be exiting this afternoon. There will be some lingering showers over the eastern mountains into the afternoon coming to an end as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
A broad upper trof covers the eastern United States with a cold dome of high pressure at the low levels. Temperatures this afternoon will still be well below normal, but a little warmer than yesterday. This will shift our winds more southerly as the CAD pattern begins to breakdown, allowing moisture to push into the area ahead of this trough.
This high will work its way to the east by tonight turning low level winds back out of the south and providing enough incoming moisture to allow for the development of a low level cloud deck Sunday morning Jones PREV DISCUSSION. Temperatures were very similar to this time yesterday morning across Texas and Louisiana with lows in the low to mid 30s. The low level jet will ramp up in the afternoon with disturbances approaching the area.
The trough axis will pass right over the South Plains and models have been consistent with it deepening as it moves east. The trough will push a cold front through around 18Z. With the trough directly overhead to provide lift, and moisture available at mid and low levels, a few showers will be possible Sunday afternoon. Precip chances do not stay around long with the trough quickly moving off to the east and the column drying out.
Even though the strong warm from from the west looked very impressive in the models leading up to today, it has become evident that the warmest surface temperatures only easily reached the higher elevations and hill peaks across our area. Conversely, the lower river valley locations were much more difficult to warm up today, especially the Milk River valley.
As the ridge continues to shift east, a gradual temperature moderation trend will continue. Highs today will generally be in the lower 50s for most areas under mostly sunny skies, although a few upper 40s will be possible over far northern portions of the forecast area. Since the light northeasterly flow will continue through most of tonight, combined with continued low dewpoints and clear skies, overnight temperatures will still be just below freezing over most of the interior, but in the low to mid 30s closer to the coast.
1040 mb high pressure system will sink southeast across the Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley today and tonight, reinforcing the arctic cold conditions across the region. Still, most locations should make it above freezing Sunday afternoon for the first time in quite awhile.