Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a result, cooler temperatures will be seen under the cloudy skies with highs only in the mid teens to low 20s.
256 PM PST Tue Jan 2 2018 Cloud cover will continue to increase tonight into Wednesday as high pressure breaks down.
The bone dry ground will also encourage milder temperatures, and expect some western locales to crack freezing for a few hours before sunset.
Weak ridging in the western CONUS will dominate the forecast through the end of the week.
Weakening low pressure center off the coast will quickly lift north tomorrow. A weak trough will move across the region tomorrow with a chance of showers.
Maybe Ole Man Winter gets up and stretches by Wednesday afternoon with afternoon high temperatures expected just above freezing by the mid afternoon hours, but he will definitely sit down again as a reinforcing dry cold front moves thru the mid state region on Wed night, and ushers in once again an Arctic based strong 1036mb high based in central Canada begins to influence the mid state weather. Dry cold frontal passage will occur Wednesday night also.
Those clouds may impact overnight lows and did a few adjustments to show a bit warmer temps, mainly north of Highway 2.
At the surface, cold arctic high pressure was over MO, but that has been moving southeast today. But it will drive a cold front through the area tonight. Otherwise a ridge of cold high pressure should build south/southeast into the area for Wednesday with sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Otherwise, there is some blowing snow noted in western Minnesota due to winds increasing behind the cold front. Due to the initial warmer temperatures this evening, will hold off on any wind chill headlines, but a few locations in central Minnesota will drop below -25F by 3 am.
Surface ridging through noon tomorrow will keep winds light and variable, but will becoming westerly along and behind the re-inforcing cold front Wednesday afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 16 39 18 28 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 11 35 12 24 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 11 37 16 24 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 6 33 9 21 / 0 0 10 10.
524 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 It was another cold start to the day, and though slightly (ever so slightly) warmer temperatures will prevail tonight, cold temperatures are still expected through the work week before we get a brief warm up and some much needed moisture this weekend. Of the two troughs, the first is a bit farther south and west, across Kansas and Oklahoma today. However, the secondary trough, currently sliding into Nebraska and Iowa, will skate through far northern Missouri late tonight.
Short-term/high-res guidance seems to be converging on redevelopment of showers this evening along tail end of amplifying mid/upper trough overspreading east TX tonight. We have expanded the hard freeze warning to include the coastal counties as many areas see freezing temps well into the mid 20s tonight, could even sees upper teens up north. Galveston island and areas along the immediate Gulf Coast may not get into the 20s, but it will be close and they will dip and stay below freezing for 4-6 hours before the sun tomorrow warms us back into the 40s for highs.
Some high levels clouds were working into the area within an upper ridge. An inversion will result in patchy valley fog, although the high clouds may keep it from getting dense. The ridge and inversion will remain in place through Wednesday.
We are looking at lows ranging from the upper single digits across the eastern Ozarks to the lower and middle teens along and west of the I-49 corridor. A surface cold front associated with that second upper level short wave trough will then pass through the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas Wednesday morning. We have gone with highs ranging from the lower 20s across central Missouri to the upper 20s near the Arkansas border. Another chilly night is on tap for Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the north. Temperatures will then quickly moderate to end the week as that high pressure shifts east into the Ohio Valley and surface winds turn around to the southeast.
Low pressure will intensify over the northern Bahamas overnight with moisture wrapping into the northern half of Florida. A small part of northern Levy County will reach freezing and freezing rain is expected late tonight and just after day break. Most of the county will remain above freezing. Lows will fall below freezing for several hours across the northern zones, with hard freeze conditions possible across northern portions of the Nature Coast. Lows will be in the mid to upper 20s north, to the lower to mid 30s inland, and the mid 30s to lower 40s coastal central and south.
The flurries should only last a couple of hours while the low level clouds sweep southward through the region.
A vigorous short wave along the SW flank of the broad long wave trough over the East CONUS will move across the area overnight. Temps will finally rise above freezing. The pressure gradient will increase northwesterly winds Wed evening/night and combined with mostly clear skies, temps will be a few degrees colder in the low/mid teens.
824 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Arctic air persists under strong high pressure into mid week. Cold front and upper trough for latter half of the week. Strong Arctic high pressure overhead, making for clear skies and cold temps across the region. High pressure still firmly in control of the sensible weather across the area. Temperatures in the lowlands approach freezing, but will likely fall just short for most on Wednesday.
313 PM MST Tue Jan 2 2018 Very dry dew points have spread across southern CO in the wake of the upper trof pushing into the southern plains. Dew points in the mountains are commonly in the -15 to -25 degree range with the lowest dew point registered on Pikes Peak of around -40. This does not look out of the realm of possibility as several mesonet sites in the higher mountains are in the -30s. Wednesday will be a little warmer across the area as the upper ridge expands eastward a bit. Highs should climb back into the 40s across the lower elevations with 20s and 30s for the mountains.
There is a good amount of dry air to overcome in the lower levels, however with how cold we will be, will not rule out the sighting of a flurry across the TN Valley late Tues night. Temps will finally rise above freezing. The pressure gradient will increase northwesterly winds Wed evening/night and combined with mostly clear skies, temps will be a few degrees colder in the low/mid teens.
The cloud cover associated with this disturbance will help to insulate the region tonight, resulting in temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, except in the Delta where clouds will clear first allowing for some radiational cooling before sunrise. Temperatures on tomorrow should finally return to above freezing area wide as skies clear and surface winds take more of an westerly component. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30's in the north to the lower 40s in the south. Cold high pressure at the surface will keep conditions dry but also chilly.
/Issued 257 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018/ Sharp upper trough axis sweeping across the region this afternoon.
A weak front will brush the area tonight with a chance of spotty light snow or freezing rain in the Cascade passes.
Our stretch of below freezing temperatures will finally come to an end tomorrow for most of the Midsouth, although areas of northwest Tennessee may only just reach 32 degrees. However sustained "warmth" will have to wait, as overnight lows plummet back into the teens behind yet another Arctic cold front.
Upper-level short wave/surface cold front quickly approaching from the northwest this evening. The clouds and southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the system will keep temperatures warmer than they have been the past couple of nights. Behind this feature, more bitterly cold air will surge southward, resulting in temperatures dropping through the late afternoon after peaking around 10 degrees near Galesburg to the low 20s south of I-70.
There is a significant chance for this precipitation to be in the form of freezing rain, especially Wednesday morning at area TAF sites.
Tonight and Wednesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show Arctic high pressure centered across the central Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, while the next Arctic cold front is heading towards the ND/MN/Canadian border. Arctic high pressure will be building south across the northern Mississippi Valley.
840 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 Potent upper level trough currently swinging through the Four State Region attm. The activity is quickly moving to the northeast in advance of the trough axis itself but because precip, albeit very light, is making it to the ground, did throw in some flurries for the remainder of the night for most areas with the precip ending across NE TX likely by midnight if not sooner. The weak cold front clearing out these clouds will bring w-nw winds around 10 kts btwn 03/15-18z.
High pressure will prevail across the region through the week as temperatures continue to run above normal with highs mostly in the 70s. A cutoff cyclonic circulation near 30N 133W continues to pump copious amounts of high clouds through a pronounced ridge axis and into the forecast area.
The ridge will hold its ground tonight with clear skies continuing. While temperatures will be milder by Wednesday afternoon (around 30), this trough will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic air to the area Wednesday night. Models continue to underplay the QPF during the Wednesday night period, and have gone a bit more aggressive, especially into the higher terrain where we will see better upslope conditions.
454 PM MST Tue Jan 2 2018 Aviation Section Updated Upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Pacific Northwest. As a result warmer temperatures will slowly move back into North Central and Southwest Montana over the next few days.
Arctic high pressure at the surface is still strong into tonight, but a cold front will make passage on Wednesday.
/issued 243 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018/ This evening an upper level short wave trough will move southeastward through the area.
239 PM PST Tue Jan 2 2018 Weakening low pressure center off the coast will quickly lift north tomorrow. A weak trough will move across the region tomorrow with a chance of showers.
18Z surface data has arctic high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley with a weak frontal boundary from northwest Minnesota into southwest South Dakota. Due to cloud cover and warmer air moving into the area, lows tonight will be much warmer than the past two nights.
555 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 An area of FZDZ/SN/IP is moving east across parts of South Central Texas due to isentropic lift ahead of an upper level trough moving across Central Texas. As the trough axis passes late evening into early overnight, CIGs/VSBYs rapidly dissipate leaving VFR skies with some cirrus. For Wednesday night, a weak surge of high pressure moves into the region.
The weak cold front clearing out these clouds will bring w-nw winds around 10 kts btwn 03/15-18z. /issued 144 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018/ Upper-level trough digging south across Oklahoma and Arkansas allowing for increased low cloud-cover across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and southern Arkansas this afternoon. Not expecting any precip with trough as it shifts southeast across the ArkLaTex this afternoon and tonight. By mid-evening, clearing line is expected from near El Dorado to Lufkin as low-level trough bisects the region and rapidly exits the to the east.
Even warmer day as heights and thicknesses increase with maximum temperatures rising into the mid 30s to mid 40s at lower elevations. The airmass continues to moderate slowly, so temperatures will be slightly warmer than those of tonight.
Upper troughing continues from the Northern Plains to the Southern rockies, while a large upper ridge extends across the Atlantic Ocean and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Increasing stability will overspread much of the peninsula on Monday, but a few showers and a stray thunderstorm may remain possible across mainly northern Florida nearer the remnant front/trough.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 44 54 44 / 70 50 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 42 48 42 / 70 50 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 41 49 42 / 70 40 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 43 49 38 / 90 60 60 30 NC.
with an icy mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain further east to the I-57 corridor. Further southeast, mostly freezing rain has been observed across southeast Illinois. to the lower 30s south of I-70. Skies will become mostly clear across all of central and southeast Illinois tonight as high pressure builds into the region from the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, ridging will develop downstream across the Plains/Midwest.
717 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Aviation Low pressure will bring snow to Lower Michigan today with about 2 to 5 inches of snow by the time the storm ends late this afternoon. High pressure at the sfc will be moving east of the area, allowing for a srly flow to bring in warmer temperatures. The uncertainty develops as we will have a nrn stream cold front dropping south toward the area, and a srn stream low coming out of the Plains.
Weak high pressure will build over the area today before an area of low pressure moves south into Central California tonight and Monday. With moisture lacking, the low pressure system will bring the threat of light precipitation especially over the Sierra and Kern County Mountains. Just a few high clouds noted this morning on the satellite imagery as subsidence (downward motion) is in place in the wake of Saturdays trough passage. Water vapor imagery nicely shows the next area of low pressure to affect the region heading southward from a position near 48N/130W or for those who prefer miles, about 400 miles west of Seattle.
Tonight, with strong high pressure in place, decent snow cover, and relatively light winds, expect conditions to favor strong radiational cooling.
Surface temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing in the area covered by the current Winter Weather Advisory. Expect a glaze of ice on some elevated surfaces which includes bridges and overpasses. However, additional forcing will overspread the Mid-South this evening as the upper- level trough swings across the region. Freezing temperatures are expected to move as far south as Interstate 40 overnight, opening the door for potential minor ice accumulations.
Latest sfc analysis places the cold front across northwestern sections of the mid state, just northwest of Nashville, and it extends toward the southwest. With the colder air continuing to filter into the region, the sfc freezing line will be moving through our northwestern counties. Given that 850 mb temps will be slightly north of freezing for a vast majority of the available moisture, I will lean toward a switch over to freezing rain.
Temperatures are marginal north of the river, but remain in the low to mid 30s. Surface temperatures will be mostly below freezing tonight as the band develops and strengthens a bit between 03-09z. The magnitude of that warm nose is variable and decreases with time, but its presence suggests a wintry mix of light freezing rain/sleet/snow. But in most areas, freezing rain and sleet will cut into those totals. Lows Monday morning will range from the low 20s in southern Indiana to around freezing near Lake Cumberland. Highs should rebound into the low to mid 40s. In general, as high pressure slides to the East Coast, southwest return flow is forecast to bring a surge of warmer air and moisture back into the Ohio Valley during the midweek period.
418 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 As of 4 AM, regional surface observations indicate a cold front extending from NE Louisiana southwestward through Alexandria and into the Gulf of Mexico around Sabine Pass. The cold front will continue to progress across the CWA through the morning hours. Moisture overrunning the surface cold front will result in a slight chance of showers through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. High pressure will build into the region resulting in cooler and drier conditions tomorrow.
428 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018 Forecast focus is on temperatures the next few days as a warmer and dryer airmass moves into the region as a low pressure system dives south along the west coast and the northwest flow aloft transitions to southwest flow aloft. The upper trough that brought snow to the region yesterday and overnight will continue to move east as a low center begins to drop south along the coast of Washington and Oregon.
Temperatures remain at or just below freezing across northeast AR and the MO Bootheel this morning, but radar returns have diminished and visibility has improved. Surface temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing in the area covered by the current Winter Weather Advisory. Expect a glaze of ice on some elevated surfaces which includes bridges and overpasses. However, additional forcing will overspread the Mid-South this evening as the upper- level trough swings across the region. Freezing temperatures are expected to move as far south as Interstate 40 overnight, opening the door for potential minor ice accumulations.
302 AM PST Sun Feb 11 2018 Lighter winds today and slightly cooler.
612 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region today as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
426 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018 Upper trough dropping south of the state this morning, and with radar and obs suggesting snow has ended across srn CO, will drop all pops and end the winter wx advisory with the latest forecast issuance. Skies will become mostly clear over the region today in the wake of the trough, though with plentiful snow cover in place and only modest winds, nudged max temps down a few degf many locations, as it will likely take until mid/late afternoon to push above freezing over most valleys/plains/I-25 corridor. Next upper trough then drops southward through the Great Basin late tonight, allowing mid level flow to gradually turn southwestward across the state by early Mon morning.
11/12Z Forecast Cycle Light drizzle or freezing drizzle will be possible this morning. Today Through Monday Night Early this morning, a cold front was located from central Louisiana through the Arklamiss region. This will be aided by a mid level trough moving through during the afternoon. As expected, shallow cold air has moved in behind the front, with what light precipitation there is in areas below freezing becoming light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. This will also continue this morning, as temperatures in the north and west will be slow to warm above freezing. The aforementioned trough will push east of the area tonight, with any lingering precipitation coming to an end as drier air moves in. High pressure will pass through the region on Monday, with the airmass moderating.
The cold front is still stretched through Central AL as we go into Monday, but it should be pushing south and east of the area around midday.
955 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Little change over the past 24hrs as deep lyr anticyclone remains firmly entrenched over the W Atlc/GOMex. Position of the ridge is generating a brisk srly flow thru the H100- H70 lyr. Fcst PoPs may be a little generous given the low PWat air overhead, but chc category seems reasonable. High pres ridge axis draped over the FL Peninsula will maintain a gentle to moderate S/SE breeze over the lcl Atlc. Little change in sea state as the ridge axis remains in place.
High pressure will keep light winds and seas in place through the next several days.
A cold front moving south across the CWA this morning, will continue to move south and should be south of the CWA by mid morning. Winds are progged to relax through Mon as high pressure settles across the area. Much cooler temps today with little diurnal change from this morning to this afternoon.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: We shift into a quiet and stagnant pattern for the remainder of the week as the mid level ridge rebuilds back across the region. Models are in agreement in showing a 590+ dm ridge centered almost directly overhead during this time, deflecting any mid-latitude systems to our north and keeping a very dry and subsident mid level airmass in place. East-southeast flow will prevail with the low level ridge axis to our north. Highs will remain above normal in the low-mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s to around 70 along the east coast. Overnight lows may trend a little cooler by late week as the easterly flow weakens.
The widespread freezing drizzle is also beginning to decrease in coverage and this trend is expected to continue through the morning. /Issued 428 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ Latest radar data is still detecting light freezing drizzle from Tulsa into northwest Arkansas. Untreated roads and sidewalks as well as bridges/overpasses will be very slippery this morning. Temperatures will eventually rise above freezing, but low clouds will prevent much temperature recovery until at least mid day.
912 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Update Low pressure will bring snow to Lower Michigan today with about 2 to 5 inches of snow by the time the storm ends late this afternoon. Since there is a "dry slot" over our southern CWA at this time, and temperatures are well below freezing some patchy freezing drizzle is possible there but I do not feel there will be enough of that to put in our actual forecast. High pressure at the sfc will be moving east of the area, allowing for a srly flow to bring in warmer temperatures. The uncertainty develops as we will have a nrn stream cold front dropping south toward the area, and a srn stream low coming out of the Plains.
Additional showers and some storms will be possible this afternoon ahead of a cold front. The cold front that will move through the area today is lingering near the Delta, down through central Louisiana. This is evident in the observations this morning where Greenville has dropped into the 40s whereas all other sites across the forecast area remains in the lower 60s.
820 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Added slight chance flurries/freezing rain showers in the southeast this morning based on recent RADAR trends. Otherwise, we expect a gradual clearing trend from NW to SE today as the trough axis slides past. Even as skies become mostly sunny in the afternoon, we expect temperatures to remain cold with highs only in the lower to mid 40s for most locations. The cool surface ridging will grudgingly give way on Monday yielding slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
431 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 At 10z, a strong Arctic cold front had moved through the entire forecast area with the exception of Grant and La Salle Parishes. Given the lack of precip in the obs, it appears dry air is advecting into the region in the lowest levels, and any precip is being pushed off to the east. Fortunately, the freezing line also appears to be the leading edge of the drier air. The chances for additional freezing drizzle appear low and should continue to decrease. Below freezing temperatures are likely across the northwest half of the area tonight/Monday morning.
This remains the focus of the highest PoPs while areas north and east have seen dry air and a lack of lift quell precipitation. Most of the forecast area is above freezing. The wave of rain impacting the southeast zones is associated with the low as it tracks north through the Ohio River Valley. This low will be north of the area this afternoon and will begin to accelerate northeastward as it is picked up by the upper- level flow pattern. As it sweeps northeast, the surface cold front that has stalled over central Ohio over the last 24-36hrs will drag through, bringing additional rain showers this evening. Dry conditions expected areawide by Monday morning as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.
Otherwise, we expect a gradual clearing trend from NW to SE today as the trough axis slides past. Even as skies become mostly sunny in the afternoon, we expect temperatures to remain cold with highs only in the lower to mid 40s for most locations. The cool surface ridging will grudgingly give way on Monday yielding slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.