Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA WITH REPORTS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE ECMWF/UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK WHICH ONLY HAVE A SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE. OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM JUST BELOW TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING OR NOT DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE. DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.
THEN NORTHERLY NEAR 10 KTS AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT DOES SLOW IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
614 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW ALL EYES ARE ON THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THAT WILL RACE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WILL LIKELY INHIBIT A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THRU THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND ROAD TEMPS ABV FREEZING. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. FAINT AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY FALL OUT OF THE LOW CLOUD LAYER PRIOR TO THE MAIN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP.
IT LOOKS WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND MOST OF THEM EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN ALTHOUGH SEVERAL ROADS ARE STILL EXTREMELY SLICK AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES TODAY WON'T MOVE MUCH TODAY SO EVERYONE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
1012 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 A COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LEAVING IT TO ITS OWN FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A DEEP HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC/SE GOMEX. WEAK FRONTAL TROF STALLED OVER THE FL BIG BEND/CAROLINA COAST HAS WEAKENED THE LCL PGRAD SUFFICIENTLY TO DROP SFC/BNDRY LYR SWRLY WINDS BLO 10KTS. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL DRIFTS NWD AND FORCES THE FRONT BACK TO THE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT.
649 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 MONITORING FOR ANY FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EARLY MORNING.
635 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SOME WEAK INITIAL WAVES LIFT THROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SHIFTING/TRANSLATING ITS ENERGY FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THUS A COMBINATION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ARE BOTH POSSIBLE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. AS A PRONOUNCED 700-500MB TROWAL/PER NAM/GFS 700-500 THETA-E-RIDGE AXIS. THIS 12HR SUSTAINMENT OF A WARM/MOIST AIR FEED COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DESERT AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER COLD OVER THE SIERRA WITH PLENTY OF SUB ZERO READINGS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SOME FROST AND SUB FREEZING READINGS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING HOWEVER SUSTAINED READINGS BELOW 28 DEGREES AND ESPECIALLY THE CITRUS SENSITIVE 26 DEGREE MARK ARE NOT LIKELY AT AVAILABLE DATA LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL STEER COOL AND DRY AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. IF THE HIGH CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
/ISSUED 915 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. CALM WEATHER PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL LEADING TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES.
CLUSTERS OF STORMS NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKING BORDERLINE AT THIS POINT, BUT IN AN AREA OF CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PROVIDING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY BE SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE WARMER AND MORE BUOYANT AIR. A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN THE REGION OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO ERODE SHOWER CHANCES AT LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AGAIN TODAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA MONDAY.
THE LARGE RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION.
125 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN MORE DRIER AIR AT THE HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH AN AMPLE UPPER RIDGE WITH RELAXED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SFC CHARTS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND FLOW TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST SPOTS. PLENTIFUL SUN EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MORE THAN WAS THE CAST YESTERDAY.
640 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MAY BRING SCATTERED MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.
443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015 The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper trough moves ashore the CA coast. This trough will bring a chance of the storms to the region as it moves east.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS, TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK AS A LONG- ADVERTISED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. POPS ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS POINT FOR OUR PLATEAU AREAS AND WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE, WILL LEAVE OUT ATTM.
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS EXPECTED COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE.
/ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC AND ALOFT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ASIDE FROM CONTINUED AFTN CUMULUS. AS DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH OVER FOUR CORNERS TAKING ITS TIME ORGANIZING.
H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.
326 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE A TROF PROGRESSES INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
400 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA. WETTER AND COOLER.
AL & FL TOMORROW MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN THEY'VE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
152 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.
509 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLY TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS, AND CAPE VALUES OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG. WILL FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NET 24HOUR 850MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL RANGE FROM +2 TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. ALSO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
634 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE A TROF PROGRESSES INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
THE NEXT SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL PRETTY MILD.
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast. Sunday, the ridge will be east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
WITH BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT. TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
504 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WAS PROVIDING VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. TEMPS WILL FALL ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEG F OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINS AT SUNRISE VARYING FROM THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS. TO 45-50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WHERE MDLS POOL LL MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF OLD SFC TROF.
516 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION TODAY. WARMER START THIS AM AND 925MB AFTN TEMPS ON ORDER OF ABOUT 3C WARMER SUPPORTS MODICUM OF INCRS IN ALREADY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRIOR FCST.
141 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY.
640 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WAS PROVIDING VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. TEMPS WILL FALL ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEG F OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINS AT SUNRISE VARYING FROM THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS. TO 45-50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WHERE MDLS POOL LL MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF OLD SFC TROF.
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY.
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES. ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER SPOTS OF GARRETT COUNTY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING. COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70 NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS THERE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE CLIMO PWAT VALUES INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
239 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE A TROF PROGRESSES INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
COOL UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ON MON. SO TEMPS INLAND WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
324 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. MID CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO RETURN.
154 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE AREA OF CU EXTENDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. A TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FORCES A SYSTEM OVER BAHA TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING NORTH WITH THAT FEATURE EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
131 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
635 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALLOWED TO INVADE BY THE CONTINUING SMOOTHING OF THE RIDGE. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
209 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN WAS PROVIDING VERY LIGHT WIND. MANY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT 06Z. TO 45-50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WHERE MDLS POOL LL MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF OLD SFC TROF. DESPITE A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H TROF TRACKING THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS LATE SUN AFTERNOON. PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS INDICATED BY THE GEFS/SREF MEANS.
149 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
624 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.
307 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
A SFC TROF WAS ALSO FOUND IN CENTRAL ND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING AHEAD OF THIS TROF IN THE VCNTY OF EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING AS A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK. SUNDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST IS GOING TO SENT A STRONG.
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY KEEPING A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE WRN GULF UP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. ONE MORE DRY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS FIRM. SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ALOFT MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL GIVE A PUSH TO THE RIDGE. WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS AND OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WHILE A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES A NONDESCRIPT PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast US. Locally across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SENDING US PIECES OF ENERGY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. SO DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM THE LOW CHANCE POPS WE HAD GOING EAST OF I-25. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE CUT OFF ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA AND STALLS NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING RAINS WILL AID IN ONGOING GREENUP OF FUELS.
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. BUT PERSISTENCE OF OHIO VALLEY RIDGING WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ANCHORED WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE SW TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE NEPAC THIS AFTN WILL REACH THE BC COAST EARLY TUE AND THEN CUTOFF ACRS THE WRN US. HWVR BEYOND THAT SIG CONSENSUS SOLUTION EXISTS W/EVOLUTION OF ROCKIES CUTOFF AND DOWNSTREAM SIG MID LVL RIDGING. FVR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WRT MID LVL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION. THUS THE ADMITTEDLY MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION SCOPE SUGGESTS LTL IF ANY POPS ARE NEEDED BEYOND TUE AS LEAD FNTL BNDRY WASHES OUT AND MID LVL RIDGE BLDS SUFFICIENTLY TO CAP OFF THE LOCAL AREA.