Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A ridge will become amplified over the eastern Pacific, keeping conditions dry through the week. Some of the higher elevations may see around an inch or two before the precipitation cuts off. A ridge will build across the eastern Pacific this week, strengthening over the coming days. With a strong trough deepening across the central and eastern parts of the country, we will be stuck on the eastern side of the ridge.
Another very cold, but not quite as cold night is expected tonight with some patchy freezing fog in valleys across northeast Nevada.
814 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022 High pressure builds north of the area with cold air advection weakening Tonight.
515 PM PST Sun Dec 18 2022 Freezing temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley Monday morning.
519 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) Upper trough moving across AZ today as a weak ridge stretches over the region. The trough will cross NM tonight and swing across the Panhandle Monday morning with a secondary portion of the trough swinging across the area Monday night. Temps will be warmer tomorrow which looks to be the warmest day of the coming week as a W wind kicks in behind a Pacific front.
A cold front will move across parts of western Oklahoma Monday afternoon, but not much in the way of colder air is expected with this frontal boundary.
538 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level low over Arizona early this afternoon is opening up and the emerging upper trough will move quickly to the east- northeast across northern New Mexico this evening and the Texas Panhandle overnight. Will favor the slightly warmer MOS numbers over the NBM for most areas, the exception being the favored cold areas in the sandhills around Muleshoe. Westerly winds to increase in the morning behind the departing upper trough and ahead of a fairly weak cold front that will move into the forecast area late in the day. Downslope component and modest pre-frontal compressional warming underneath abundant sunshine should favor a blend of the warmer MOS values over the NBM.
A northern trough will track east across the northern Plains Monday morning while a disturbance in the southern stream over the southern Plains advances northeast. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are likely, with the highest totals in WI where snow will persist the longest.
511 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) Breezy southerly flow will continue across the area through this evening, causing slightly warmer temperatures and some moisture to filter into the area. Given the increased cloud cover, overnight lows are expected to remain slightly warmer than previous nights, in the low to mid 40s, with the exception of upper 30s in a few low lying areas across the area.
941 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) Breezy southerly flow will continue across the area through this evening, causing slightly warmer temperatures and some moisture to filter into the area. Given the increased cloud cover, overnight lows are expected to remain slightly warmer than previous nights, in the low to mid 40s, with the exception of upper 30s in a few low lying areas across the area.
Tonight, temperatures will remain in the single digits to the lower teens in the foothills, urban corridor, and plains. The moisture and lift from this trough will miss our CWA to the south and the dry conditions will continue for our area. Some of the flow aloft will mix down to the surface especially over the higher terrain. Winds were a bit light in the higher terrain in the previous forecast so they were increased. Denver will be in the low 40s with colder temperatures on the eastern plains over the snow cover.
Deep upper trough over the eastern Canadian Rockies will shift south with a series of southern periphery impulses undulating the shallow sfc front the next 2 days. Skies will clear this afternoon over the SW third as warmer dry air interacts with the top of the BL. Arctic air will settle back south over the region tonight behind a weak trough with patchy fog, flurries, and low clouds expected once again.
1255 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 Quiet weather will prevail under high pressure through midweek until a possible winter storm late this week. High pressure will build into the region from the west today.
354 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 Quiet weather will prevail under high pressure through midweek until a possible winter storm late this week. High pressure will build into the region from the west today.
Also, the shallow inversion will result in patchy valley fog late tonight through Monday morning - including the Lower Treasure Valley. Pacific moisture will arrive in the flow and bring increasing chances for snow late Monday through Monday night in central Idaho and the higher elevations of Baker County.
1056 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level low over Arizona early this afternoon is opening up and the emerging upper trough will move quickly to the east- northeast across northern New Mexico this evening and the Texas Panhandle overnight. Will favor the slightly warmer MOS numbers over the NBM for most areas, the exception being the favored cold areas in the sandhills around Muleshoe. Westerly winds to increase in the morning behind the departing upper trough and ahead of a fairly weak cold front that will move into the forecast area late in the day. Downslope component and modest pre-frontal compressional warming underneath abundant sunshine should favor a blend of the warmer MOS values over the NBM.
1246 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 High pressure builds north of the area with cold air advection weakening Tonight.
Ridging over the east Pacific will result in dry northwesterly flow aloft across the region allowing for the continuation of dry conditions with occasional high clouds at times. Given that NBM verification has been at or above deterministic, and the low is passing to the east, opted to not issue a Freeze Warning for CA527. At this point, confidence is not high enough that freezing temperatures will be reached and elected not to go with a freeze warning at this time. With the moderating temperatures, overnight lows will start to increase and freezing temperatures for locations that normally don't freeze will become less likely.
Its distal appendage is a small 1030 mb anticyclone centered near Illinois and Kentucky. The high near the Mason-Dixon line has driven the frontal boundary into the Straits, with the Keys on the drier, breezier side of the front. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast overnight, resulting in fresh breezes through Monday night.
1042 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) Upper trough moving across AZ today as a weak ridge stretches over the region. The trough will cross NM tonight and swing across the Panhandle Monday morning with a secondary portion of the trough swinging across the area Monday night. Temps will be warmer tomorrow which looks to be the warmest day of the coming week as a W wind kicks in behind a Pacific front.
Warmer weather will gradually build by midweek with light rain for the northern half of the area Tuesday. One last night of clear, offshore flow has brought freezing temperatures all along the coast. As cold high pressure finally pushes east today, marine influence will increase. Though highs will remain around 50 throughout the area, increasing midlevel cloud cover will keep tonight much warmer near 40, restricting frost to Trinity County. All cluster ensembles show a very strong upper level ridge building by late in the week. Such warm air and light precipitation will mitigate any snow impacts with less than 2 inches expected even on the highest elevation pass of Highway 3. Precipitation will be accompanied by slightly enhanced southerly winds with ridgetop gusts to 35 mph.
546 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 (Today and tonight) Near average temperatures are expected today, though lingering clouds may keep things a bit cooler to the east of I-35.
A weak low pressure system will bring more high cloud cover Tuesday, with cool conditions continuing.
The leading edge of a very cold and shallow arctic high pressure system has drifted into srn Nebraska this morning.
A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the eastern Pacific, keeping conditions dry and chilly through the week across northern Arizona.
Low pressure to the south will move east, and low level flow will shift from easterly to northwesterly, drawing in colder air with less stratus coverage, allowing temperatures to show much more diurnal range tonight.
Current surface analysis shows high over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba with ridge stretched through the northern plains across the Midwest. A few waves continue to swing around the low. For today, next wave working around the low swings over the area and elongates, resulting in an area of snow moving through our neck of the woods.
213 AM MST Mon Dec 19 2022 Quiet and dry weather conditions are expected to prevail all week as high pressure centered just to the west influences our region. is looking fairly stagnant as a blocking ridge sets up just along and west of the Pacific coast. This expansive troughing to our east will largely keep the strongest heights from the ridge well to our west, so we will see another couple days of below normal temperatures with highs mostly in the lower 60s across the lower deserts.
412 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 The leading edge of a very cold and shallow arctic high pressure system has drifted into srn Nebraska this morning.
437 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 Current surface analysis shows high over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba with ridge stretched through the northern plains across the Midwest. A few waves continue to swing around the low. For today, next wave working around the low swings over the area and elongates, resulting in an area of snow moving through our neck of the woods.
This cloud deck remains over the entire Valley this morning and is helping to inhibit fog development while also keeping most Valley temperatures above the freezing mark. With this cloud layer expected to persist through the morning hours, probabilities for widespread freezing temperatures have decreased and therefore the Freeze Warning can be cancelled. Model ensemble solutions track a weak high pressure ridge axis eastward from the California coast today and blended model guidance erodes the resident stratus deck by later today, allowing for afternoon highs in the Valley several degrees higher than yesterday.
Temperatures trend warmer following this fairly weak disturbance, but colder temperatures may return by the end of the week.
847 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 Quiet weather will prevail under high pressure through midweek until a winter storm late this week will bring the chance for rain, snow, and wind. High temperatures will top out near freezing, with lows down to the low 20s.
Otherwise the sky was clear with temperatures 2 to 5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.
Coolest morning of the forecast period expected, with Harry Reid Airport 1 degree above freezing at 1:30 AM, and numerous locations around the forecast area already sub-freezing. Two forecast zones remain in our area that have not yet frozen this season: CA527 and AZ002 - both of which reside in the lower Colorado River Valley. Needles Airport has consistently observed overnight/morning low temperatures 2-3 degrees warmer than guidance (which, for this morning, is 33 degrees). 0 has less than a 50% chance of the site dropping to freezing temperatures. A deep diving plunge of CP air across the Rockies and eastern 2/3 of the CONUS will amplify a ridge over the Pacific by late week.
Quiet and dry weather conditions are expected to prevail all week as high pressure centered just to the west influences our region. is looking fairly stagnant as a blocking ridge sets up just along and west of the Pacific coast. This expansive troughing to our east will largely keep the strongest heights from the ridge well to our west, so we will see another couple days of below normal temperatures with highs mostly in the lower 60s across the lower deserts.
Temperatures currently range from the lower 40s across the northern portions of our CWA to temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across Lee, Charlotte, and Sarasota counties. As dew-points remain in the lower 30s to mid 40s, a comfortable and dry morning will prevail.
South to southwest winds will strengthen ahead of a cold front tonight. The low levels dont saturate until after 10z.
121 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 Quiet weather will prevail under high pressure through midweek until a winter storm late this week will bring the chance for rain, snow, and wind. High temperatures will top out near freezing, with lows down to the low 20s.
Forecast of dry conditions this afternoon with some breaks in the cloud over mainly eastern OK looks to be valid, with temps warming into the low 50s in areas west of Tulsa that see more sun.
At the sfc, a weak area of low pressure will develop off the southeast Texas coast and spread east southeast through the period. The highest rain chances will be overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.
Below average temperatures will slowly give way to warmer temperatures through the week, possibly becoming above normal into the weekend. An upper level ridge with an axis over the eastern Pacific is slowly moving into the West Coast which will lead to a gradual warming trend through the week.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Weak upper trough rolling across the region today with brief ridging moving in Tuesday. A much stronger trough will hit the NW US Tuesday night. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Tuesday with readings ranging from the 40s NE. Lows Tuesday night a bit warmer as southerly wind returns.
912 AM PST Mon Dec 19 2022 Slightly warmer today, but below normal temperatures will persist into Tuesday.
132 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 A cool and sunny day continues across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Temperatures Tuesday morning will be several degrees warmer than today ahead of an approaching low pressure system that is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low will track across the peninsula late Tuesday/Tuesday night, with increasing rain chances and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures are currently in the lower 70s along the island chain, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. High pressure is dominating the region at all levels. For today, winds will clock to the northeast to east as the aforementioned high pressure shifts to the east. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to move eastward across the eastern United States today, which will result in moderate to occasionally fresh breezes continuing through tonight. This area of high pressure is expected to weaken on Tuesday as a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico pushes towards Florida. Winds will then quickly veer from the northeast, to the southeast, and then eventually southwest ahead of a potentially much stronger cold front by the end of the week.
A very weak cold front will arrive tonight bringing light north winds and a cool down for tonight and tomorrow. In fact, skies will once again become overcast tonight across the eastern portions of our area (east of a San Angelo to Abilene line) with lows around freezing for some locations.
947 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 A few snow flakes have fallen in areas of north Mississippi this morning as temperatures remained at and below freezing. Temperatures are expected to warm to the low 40s today, meaning any additional precipitation will fall as rain.
113 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 Seasonal cool and mostly sunny today with temperatures moderating a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday as flow veers from NNW to NNE into the afternoon as a coastal trough develops. High temps will range from near 60 across inland SE GA to near 70 across our north- central FL zones today, with breezy NE winds into the afternoon with gusts near 15 to 20 mph along the coast as the trough further develops offshore. Breezy northeast winds develop today between high pressure over the Carolinas and a coast trough developing over the local Atlantic waters.
Lows will be warmer than last night, generally in the 40s for inland SE GA, lower 50s for inland NE FL, and mid 50s on the coast.
Seasonal cool and mostly sunny today with temperatures moderating a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday as flow veers from NNW to NNE into the afternoon as a coastal trough develops. High temps will range from near 60 across inland SE GA to near 70 across our north- central FL zones today, with breezy NE winds into the afternoon with gusts near 15 to 20 mph along the coast as the trough further develops offshore. Breezy northeast winds develop today between high pressure over the Carolinas and a coast trough developing over the local Atlantic waters.
Expansive high pressure across the southeast has shifted east some, however, the tightened gradient remains across the area. Cooler air and lower dewpoints will rise slowly through tomorrow as winds become easterly to southeasterly, bringing in more moist air. This low will shift southeastward and is forecast to traverse Central Florida. While the low itself is expected to remain north of our forecast area, impacts from this disturbance will still be felt across the Keys. A warm front associated with the aforementioned low will also be lifting northward across the forecast area. We will continue to monitor this very closely as the low approaches.
Weak cold air advection tonight in a broad upper trough over the northern Plains is just reinforcing the arctic air already in place. Winds will remain fairly light overnight under the high. However, there will be increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Tuesday, the cold surface ridging will attempt to dislodge eastward, in response to midlevel flow becoming zonal. Light and variable winds in the morning will trend light southeast in the afternoon as the high pressure departs. A sizable temperature range will result Tuesday afternoon, ranging from the upper 20s and below freezing across the northeast zones (Hays) to the mid 40s across the far southwest zones (Elkhart).
For tonight, weak low pressure moving along a cold front will bring a round of light snow to the region tonight.
228 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure remains in place across eastern Kentucky. Even so expected a few teens to lower 20s in the valleys and mid to upper 20s on the ridges.
An amplifying trough over the Central U. A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the west coast of North America for the next several days, though small impulses will move through the ridge at times.
Skies are clear across the region with temperatures warmer than 24 hours ago at most locales. Starting during the middle of the week a strong upper level low will will begin to move through the northern Rockies and into the Great Plains then into the eastern U. At the same time ridging will be building off the southern coast of California.
A cool and sunny day continues across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Temperatures Tuesday morning will be several degrees warmer than today ahead of an approaching low pressure system that is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low will track across the peninsula late Tuesday/Tuesday night, with increasing rain chances and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Several pieces of energy will reinforce the low over south central Canada, which will cause the pressure gradient to increase over the Pacific Northwest. The lows tonight might end up being around midnight or when clouds arrive as opposed to around sunrise. Highs tomorrow will only be a few degrees warmer than today with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
514 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Weak upper trough rolling across the region today with brief ridging moving in Tuesday. A much stronger trough will hit the NW US Tuesday night. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Tuesday with readings ranging from the 40s NE. Lows Tuesday night a bit warmer as southerly wind returns.
847 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 An inverted through of low pressure will be along the east coast Tonight, as a wave of low pressure approaches from the west. Rain chances will increase through the night in response to both the wave and the trough.
254 PM MST Mon Dec 19 2022 Upper air analysis shows a broad arctic trough across the north central CONUS. Models are suggesting a return of freezing fog tonight across south central SD to lower parts of southwest SD.
123 PM PST Mon Dec 19 2022 Slightly warmer today, but below normal temperatures will persist into Tuesday.
659 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 (00Z TAFS) Stratus will continue along the east coast, due to an inverted trough along the coastal waters, restrictions to MVFR can be expected. Lows will be warmer than last night, generally in the 40s for inland SE GA, lower 50s for inland NE FL, and mid 50s on the coast.
455 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 Quiet weather will prevail under high pressure through midweek until a winter storm late this week will bring the chance for rain, snow, and wind. This support wanes by early to mid evening, ending the flurries, but the lower clouds will remain across the north with moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion. Low temperatures will be seasonably cold, with lower 20s in the lowlands and upper teens in the ridges.
555 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front, located across far western Oklahoma early this afternoon, will continue to push eastward tonight. Cooler air behind the front will keep afternoon highs Tuesday about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
(This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front, located across far western Oklahoma early this afternoon, will continue to push eastward tonight. Cooler air behind the front will keep afternoon highs Tuesday about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
428 PM MST Mon Dec 19 2022 Upper air analysis shows a broad arctic trough across the north central CONUS. Models are suggesting a return of freezing fog tonight across south central SD to lower parts of southwest SD.
656 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022 Quiet weather will prevail under high pressure through midweek until a winter storm late this week will bring the chance for rain, snow, and wind. This support wanes by early to mid evening, ending the flurries, but the lower clouds will remain across the north with moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion. Low temperatures will be seasonably cold, with lower 20s in the lowlands and upper teens in the ridges.
As of this afternoon, an arctic cold frontal boundary has already slipped into northwest Montana, and tomorrow evening a trough will drop out of the northwest and enhance the ongoing snow showers along that boundary. Snow will increase later tonight and tomorrow morning over north-central Idaho and western Montana as the trough pushes warmer, moist air over the cold frontal boundary. About 4 to 12 inches will fall in the Missoula, Bitterroot, Mission, Seeley/Swan, and Flathead Valleys, as well as the lower elevations of I-90 from Drummond to St.
Warmer weather will gradually build by midweek with light rain for the northern half of the area Tuesday. More significant cold frontal rain is not expected until later in the day Tuesday. As far as snow, early in the day snow levels look close to 3000 feet but warmer air later in the day should raise snow levels above highway passes expect Hwy 3 in the Trinity Alps. After Tuesday all cluster ensembles show a very strong upper level ridge building by late in the week.
Storm total QPFs of up to about one inch are forecast, with the highest amounts along the coast south of the Tampa Bay, so minor street flooding will be possible for any localized areas that see higher totals.
Wherever clouds do end up being will result in cooler temperatures than what was expected.