Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
447 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Isolated showers were noted through much of the night, except very recently more concentrated showers have developed along a boundary just off the Lower Keys reef. Temperatures were steady in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
359 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The cold front that brought the shower and storm activity to the area yesterday has essentially washed out over the area, with lingering moisture across the area. While heights will recover through the first part of the day, another cold front, currently over the southern Great Lakes, will push south across the area this evening. This cold front will bring even lower moisture into the area.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than those that occurred on Sunday as readings top out in the lower to middle 90s. With the drier air mass in place, heat index values will be near those of the highs this afternoon.
With 850mb temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, along with east to northeast surface winds, high temperatures should also be a few degrees cooler than Sunday with primarily mid 80s to near 90.
/Today through Sunday/ Dry and quiet weather continues into the first half of this week as a high amplitude ridge holds a firm grip over the western conus. Iowa sits on the eastern periphery of this ridge under dry northerly flow.
231 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Current surface analysis reveals a weak area of low pressure with an associated surface cold front pushing off to the south and east of the region this morning, while broad high pressure influences much of the Midwest. Winds this morning have been generally light in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Another cold front is progged to push through later this afternoon, and while the vast majority of guidance is dry, a few models hint at some very isolated showers/storms developing along the front. Behind the front, we will gradually see dewpoints fall into the lower 50s by tomorrow morning. Slightly cooler air will also advect in behind the front, and many locations should start off in the upper 50s by tomorrow morning.
An upper level trough is progged to set up to our east Monday, allowing for a bit more SH/TS development across portions of the CWA.
1115 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Strong upper ridge axis is building over the northern Plains with warm air advection moving toward the forecast area. Surface boundary is slowly sinking southward through southern SD as evident of the northward moving CU field with the higher dewpoints and southwest winds stopped at the boundary with northeast winds and lower dewpoints to the north.
337 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure ridging into the Upper Lakes from the northern Plains will yield a quiet and seasonable start to the work week. Highs will mainly be in the 70s but with onshore flow near Lake Superior expect it to remain cooler there. A mainly clear and seasonable night is expected tonight with high pressure ridging into the U. Troughing across the NE and GL region and deep troughing the PacNW will result in an anomalous ridge building over the inter mtn west.
420 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Low pressure well off the North Carolina coast today will move further offshore tonight.
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area through the period.
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Summary: High pressure will bring quiet and warm conditions to start the week before the pattern turn more active for the end of the week and into the weekend. High pressure was located over North Dakota and into the Canadian Prairies this morning with an area of low pressure over northwestern Ontario. A cold front trailed from this low to just north of the Winnipeg area and then to the northwest.
303 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge over the central CONUS with deep trof off the West Coast. At the surface, weak low pressure is located across south central SD, with high pressure covering the remainder of the Northern Plains. Another very warm day is expected today as central CONUS ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge axis remain over the area on Tuesday, with dry conditions expected.
/issued 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid-level high pressure edges toward the Four Corners today into Tuesday, gradually weakening the ridge along the lower Texas coast.
Slightly cooler temperatures today with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
753 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Shower and thunderstorms chances are expected again today with a reinforcing cold front. Another crossing disturbance will maintain lower shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday before high pressure returns dry weather for mid week.
515 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Shower and thunderstorms chances are expected again today with a reinforcing cold front. Another crossing disturbance will maintain lower shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday before high pressure returns dry weather for mid week.
A dominate, unusually strong upper level ridge will persist over the western CONUS, centered over the southern Rockies, while negative height anomalies continue over the Great Lakes through the mid-Atlantic seaboard.
Instability and the trough dynamics wane westward, so it appears Juneau/Adams will be just out of the scattered showers moving south this afternoon. A very similar scenario on Tuesday afternoon plays out with a trough swinging through eastern WI, but with a bit less instability. Cooler high pressure settles in for drier, not as warm days.
A weak ridge is penetrating South Florida and the Florida Keys, with an amplified upper level trough digging through the Mid-Atlantic States. CIMMS satellite-derived vorticity products reveal cyclonic flow in the lower and mid- levels, providing ample forcing for ascent to permit scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in our Bayside and Gulfside waters as well as the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
maybe a degree or so cooler. It does look like winds will be onshore through the day, so higher confidence in cooler conditions near the lake.
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area through the period. Today Through Tuesday Night The upper level high pressure system is now centered over New Mexico and continues to expand. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas through Tuesday night. Dry air has filtered into the state behind a cold front. A backdoor cold front will enter from the northeast Tuesday and bring a reinforcing shot of dry air. Lower dew points will bring lower humidity as highs today climb into the lower to mid 90s, and into the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
Today Through Tuesday Night The upper level high pressure system is now centered over New Mexico and continues to expand. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas through Tuesday night. Dry air has filtered into the state behind a cold front. A backdoor cold front will enter from the northeast Tuesday and bring a reinforcing shot of dry air. Lower dew points will bring lower humidity as highs today climb into the lower to mid 90s, and into the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
557 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will be in control for most of the week, with several days of dry weather expected.
The exception will be a couple days at the end of the work week when warmer and somewhat more humid conditions briefly return, accompanied by a better chance for thunderstorms. The large scale pattern will continue to amplifying through Tuesday, with a ridge over the Western Plains and a trough over eastern Canada and New England. The pattern will result in one moderate opportunity for precipitation--during the latter half of the work week when the warmer/more humid air shifts through the region. Quiet weather with more sunshine but slightly cooler temperatures is expected Tuesday.
Some convection fired over this area yday but with the cooler temps and cloud cover lacked the energy to produce strong storms and a similar case may be today. A low pressure system over the epac that was responsible for the moisture will remaim stationary while keeping the region in a southerly moist flow aloft.
We lie on the eastern edge of influence from the strengthening ridge, allowing perturbations to kick off MCS activity. Later on today, it appears that a backdoor cold front will move toward our CWA from the northeast. Unsure of how far this cold front will make it, but it does appear that it could make it just into the northeast third of the CWA and perhaps become a focus for thunderstorm initiation. With lowering 700 mb temps (GFS cools more than ECMWF), cooler mid- levels would be more favorable to thunderstorm development and perhaps along with a perturbation/jet streak could break the cap by early evening.
731 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure ridging into the Upper Lakes from the northern Plains will yield a quiet and seasonable start to the work week. Highs will mainly be in the 70s but with onshore flow near Lake Superior expect it to remain cooler there. A mainly clear and seasonable night is expected tonight with high pressure ridging into the U.
We lie on the eastern edge of influence from the strengthening ridge, allowing perturbations to kick off MCS activity. Later on today, it appears that a backdoor cold front will move toward our CWA from the northeast. Unsure of how far this cold front will make it, but it does appear that it could make it just into the northeast third of the CWA and perhaps become a focus for thunderstorm initiation. With lowering 700 mb temps (GFS cools more than ECMWF), cooler mid- levels would be more favorable to thunderstorm development.
High pressure remains centered over North Dakota this morning while an upper level ridge amplifies just to the west. Today the ridge will continue to amplify with its axis shifting east. The temperature trend will repeat for tonight and early Tuesday morning, with the east being the coolest in the low 50s and the west remaining warmer with lows in the low 60s under continued southeast flow. An elevated mixed layer arrives with the upper level ridge axis, developing a corridor of instability by this evening where southeasterly return flow is expected to bring modest low level moisture into far southwest North Dakota.
938 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 An upper ridge continues to build over the Four corners region, while an upper trough will swing down through the Ohio Valley today. Dewpoint temps will remain in the low to mid 70s, meaning one more day of afternoon heat indices near or just below 100. With clear skies expected today and current temperatures running a little warmer than depicted by models, have raised highs by a degree this afternoon. The main story in the short-term forecast period will be the dry cold front on Tuesday.
Tuesday, the ridge begins to erode, turning our winds back to westerly/southwesterly, advecting warmer, drier air into southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.
The cold front that brought the shower and storm activity to the area yesterday has essentially washed out over the area, with lingering moisture across the area. While heights will recover through the first part of the day, another cold front, currently over the southern Great Lakes, will push south across the area this evening. This cold front will bring even lower moisture into the area. This will set up a much cooler Tuesday morning with lows falling back into the mid to upper 50s.
The strength of the upper level ridge of hot high pressure will be realized by Tuesday. Even today, substantial ridging will allow for high temperatures to climb well into the 90s for most locations.
1031 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Low pressure will move away from the region today. A cold front will approach the region by the middle of the week. The Lowcountry/Coastal Empire will remain in between newly developed Tropical Depression 2 off the NC coast and an approaching cold front to the west. This activity may reach the far inland portions of the Lowcountry/Coastal Empire near the CSRA/eastern Midlands. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday: The axis of a mid-level trough will continue to drift farther from the area as a cold front approaches from the north.
633 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front moved through Minnesota and western Wisconsin yesterday before stalling in Iowa overnight. There is another disturbance north of Lake Superior this morning that will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air for tonight and Tuesday. Both the EC/GFS continue to support a building mid-upper level ridge across the Rockies, and extending northward into the Canadian Prairie early this week.
VFR and light southeasterly low level flow otherwise will dominate with upper level high pressure building from western New Mexico into the 4-Corners. /issued 331 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ Upper level high pressure will amplify across the 4-Corners area later today and tonight with northeast steering flow across the Texas South Plains region.
Current surface analysis reveals a weak area of low pressure with an associated surface cold front pushing off to the south and east of the region this morning, while broad high pressure influences much of the Midwest. Winds this morning have been generally light in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Another cold front is progged to push through later this afternoon, and while the vast majority of guidance is dry, a few models hint at some very isolated showers/storms developing along the front. Behind the front, we will gradually see dewpoints fall into the lower 50s by tomorrow morning. Slightly cooler air will also advect in behind the front, and many locations should start off in the upper 50s by tomorrow morning.
a 598 dam upper level ridge remains centered over the four corners area with northwest flow aloft over the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 90s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 60s. Heat index values this afternoon in the low 90s to near 100 degrees. a 599 dam upper level high remains firmly planted near the four corners area with about a 30 dam height rise at 500mb over the Tri-State area. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 60s.
An upper level trough offshore will eject northeastward tonight, followed by building high pressure and warmer interior temperatures for the rest of the week. The unseasonable upper trough that has been parked offshore for the last several days will finally eject NE today through tonight. Significant warming is forecast for the interior toward the latter portion of the week as an upper ridge over the 4-corners region expands westward over NW California.
High pressure will settle over the east today keeping that area dry. This could set off a few showers again late tonight, especially toward morning when another inverted trough develops and noses into Jones county.
440 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge over the central CONUS with deep trof off the West Coast. At the surface, weak low pressure is located across south central SD, with high pressure covering the remainder of the Northern Plains. Another very warm day is expected today as central CONUS ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge axis remain over the area on Tuesday, with dry conditions expected.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through much of the week. This high pressure will become centered over the four corners region by the middle of the week, allowing mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of isolated mainly dry thunderstorms. The ridge of high pressure responsible for this excessive heat will shift farther north and become centered over the four corners region on Tuesday.
447 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Summary: High pressure will bring quiet and warm conditions to start the week before the pattern turn more active for the end of the week and into the weekend. High pressure was located over North Dakota and into the Canadian Prairies this morning with an area of low pressure over northwestern Ontario. A cold front trailed from this low to just north of the Winnipeg area and then to the northwest.
649 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure has yielded clear skies and near calm winds across the area this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. The stout mid level high centered near the Four Corners and accompanying ridge across the west central CONUS will continue to drive our weather for the next several days. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90s (warmest temperatures in far eastern KS and along KS/MO border with slightly cooler temperatures as you head east), but dewpoints will remain quite low for June standards.
643 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region today and Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
617 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Low pressure well off the North Carolina coast today will move further offshore tonight.
612 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure continues to bring clear skies to the area. Pleasant summer weather is expected in the low impact, short term period. An upper ridge extending from an upper high over NM will slide into the Dakotas during the short term period, providing plentiful solar. Ridge axis slides into MN tonight and most of area will see surface winds shift to the east, becoming rather light in areas east of the valley.
An upper level ridge will continue to amplify over the Rocky Mountains and Great Pains through the next couple days. In north central Nebraska, flow aloft will not be quite as warm, and a backdoor cold front may hinder heating in the late afternoon, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s. The previously mentioned backdoor surface cold front will continue to push further into north central Nebraska in the late afternoon and early evening. Conditions appear to be more calm on Tuesday as the upper level ridge amplifies over the western United States. Continued WAA from the south will drive temperatures up further, with highs ranging from the upper 90s in southwest Nebraska to the low 90s in north central Nebraska.
As we work through the day the front will sag southward and a pre-frontal trough will lift north.
A cold front bisects the forecast area early this morning. The atmosphere is still rather unstable with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will warm into the low 90s under this ridge with dewpoints in the upper 60 to low 70s. The main story in the short-term forecast period will be the dry cold front on Tuesday.
Today through Tuesday The core of the really disgustingly hot temperatures will be over the area over the next couple of days as ridging continues to build northward over the area through Tuesday. For today, 90s will be ubiquitous across the lower elevations, including some of normally cooler areas in the west. The warmer areas, like the Big Horn Basin, will see triple digits with some record highs likely to fall today. Humidity will also remain rather low, falling into the single digits again across many of the lower elevations. Some of the warmer spots could see highs well into the 100s. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the northwest.
1056 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region through tonight. High pressure with drier and cooler air will cover the area mid to late week.
Last weeks upper trough finally well east. High pressure behind will strengthen as we head into the afternoon and that will eventually push this boundary to our south. And a secondary upper wave and frontal boundary will push through tonight, which is setting up some fine dry mid-June weather Tue and Wed with cooler temps and more comfortable humidity.
Persistent upper trough that has remained off the West Coast all weekend remains nearly stationary with a front and associated showers remaining over northwest California.
Tuesday will be a warm, dry day as the upper level ridge axis advances farther east.
/Issued 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ High pressure continues to dominate the southern Plains and the mid-level pressure center lifts towards the four corners on Tuesday.
413 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The warming trend will continue Monday as the ridge over the Rockies continues to build.
/issued 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ Center of upper ridge near the 4 Corners region today will move little over the next several days but a trough moving along the US/Canadian border late Tuesday will flatten it out.
Tomorrow might hold a little better chances for showers east of I-35 as the upper ridge that has held on shifts slightly west.
650 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Shower and thunderstorms chances are expected again today with a reinforcing cold front. Another crossing disturbance will maintain lower shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday before high pressure returns dry weather for mid week.
940 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Low pressure well off the North Carolina coast today will move further offshore tonight.
As a Pacific trough pushes on shore it may provide the lift necessary to initiate convection.
High pressure continues to bring clear skies to the area. Pleasant summer weather is expected in the low impact, short term period. An upper ridge extending from an upper high over NM will slide into the Dakotas during the short term period, providing plentiful solar. Ridge axis slides into MN tonight and most of area will see surface winds shift to the east, becoming rather light in areas east of the valley.
At the surface, there is a developing lee trough over central Wyoming with high pressure over the Dakotas. Temperatures at 1 PM range from low 80s in the Hills to the low 90s over the plains. Upper ridge axis remains over the area on Tuesday, with dry conditions expected.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a rather diffuse pattern over the Great Lakes with any surface boundaries located well to our south and high pressure over the northern Plains. High pressure stretching from central Canada into the northern Plains is forecast to build into the western Great Lakes tonight, allowing for the clear skies and a light north wind. Max temperatures for Tuesday will range from the lower to middle 70s north/near Lake MI, middle 70s to around 80 degrees south. Tuesday Night Through Monday High pressure in place across the western Great Lakes region will keep the forecast dry during the middle part of the week as temperatures hover around normal for this time of year.
1203 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will be in control for most of the week, with several days of dry weather expected.
Meanwhile, the Central and Western Big Country counties and eastern Concho Valley were in the low to mid 70s, while elsewhere to the east and southeast (and also in Crockett County), clear skies have resulted in much warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Due to the slight cooling brought about by the MCV, lows tonight could be slightly cooler (upper 60s to low 70s). Tuesday, some warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge and sunny skies should result in warm highs in the low to mid 90s.
322 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Currently have upper ridge centered over the Southern Rockies/Desert Southwest with upper troughing over the Eastern Great Lakes Region. At the surface, high is centered over Northeast OK with return flow across the High Plains. Not much is expected to change for tonight into Tue with upper ridging remaining over the Four Corners region. Wed and Thu continue to look like the hottest through this forecast package as the upper ridge remains planted over the Four Four Corners region. This feature will push a weak cold front across the Northern Plains. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front is expected to stretch generally along the KS-NE border and will sink south into the forecast area Fri night into Sat morning.