Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Luckily the only gravity waves to be found this afternoon are in the High Plains of CO ahead of a strong arctic front. Our southern mountains still get brushed with some of this weak ascent and will catch some of the high level mositure moving through. Light snow amounts up to an inch continues to be forecast through sunrise over the high eastern San Juans. For the most part stayed on the lower end of guidance. Any lingering light snow or flurries along the Continental Divide will gradually diminish on Thursday as the trough across the southern Four Corners and northern Mexico digs farther to the south and east.
A cold front currently moving through the Texas Panhandle will move through the South Plains later this morning. This cold front will primarily bring much colder and blustery conditions today. A cloudy and cold day is in store Thursday as dense overcast encompasses the CWA with a diminishing northeasterly breeze as the positively-tilted mid/upper-level trough axis departs to the region.
246 AM MST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure continues to build across the the Pacific Northwest as it continues to push eastward, as the deepening low pressure system continues tracking eastward from the central Canadian border into the Great Lakes. Current surface analysis depicts the cold frontal boundary have continued digging southward into southern Colorado, with a portion of the boundary becoming stationary along the Rocky Mountains and northward across the Laramie Range. Should start to see the freezing precipitation to all snow transition early this morning at 12z, but could be as late as 16z, when the saturated layer drops into the dendritic growth zone.
519 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (Today and tonight) Colder air will overspread Oklahoma and northern Texas this morning behind a cold front. For consistency, will keep the previous mention of mainly light rain/drizzle in the forecast for today, but will go with either rain/ perhaps freezing drizzle across central Oklahoma.
A strong cold front will move through the region today, w/fropa at KCNM/KHOB around 17Z, and KFST around 21Z. (Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper-level trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, kicking off a few -SHRA, little of which is making to the surface, judging by the 00Z KMAF sounding. To the north, mesoanalysis shows the next cold front entering the Texas Panhandle at 07Z. Tonight, temperatures plunge precipitously as the front surges through, with all but the Rio Grande Valley dropping to freezing overnight, and a hard freeze for most locations. Models consistently develop precip over the northwest zones this evening, then ESE along the front overnight and Thursday morning, w/best chances along the front from Van Horn through the lower Trans Pecos Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Carolinas. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is helping to advect up moisture and warmer temperatures into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Short term model soundings indicate the most likely precipitation type would be in the form of freezing rain or sleet with a warm low level warm nose present producing some melting and/or refreezing precipitation aloft. Any potential wintry precipitation appears to be light at best and impacts would most likely be felt on untreated elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.
434 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Strong arctic cold front is sliding south through the region early this morning. After the frontal passage, forecast soundings are still indicating that the low levels will slowly moisten up across southern portions of the forecast area. Beyond Thursday night, long wave trough is still expected to setup over the eastern U.
At the surface, a relatively tight pressure gradient exists across the forecast area as high pressure drops southward into the region from Saskatchewan. Weak warm advection will overspread the area tonight as the upper ridge approaches from the west.
Continuing breezy conditions leading to patchy blowing snow across portions of central and eastern North Dakota will be the highlight of the short term period.
549 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Key Messages: - Arctic high pressure to bring gusty northwest winds today, resulting in localized areas of blowing snow across western Minnesota.
Freezing fog is possible early this morning which may result in reduced visibilities.
High pressure will move into far NE South Dakota by 12z Thursday and skies should be clear.
Southerly low-level flow has set up on the western side of the high. The upper level flow will moreover shift to southwesterly ahead of a strong, positively- tilted longwave trough currently over the Southwest CONUS and approaching Texas. By tonight, the aforementioned trough and an associated surface cold front will swing into the Southeastern CONUS. A colder airmass will once again begin to spread into northwest Georgia during the overnight hours and into Thursday as the front pushes into the forecast area, dropping temperatures to near freezing. Light precipitation will also trail behind the front, and wintry precip will therefore be possible on Thursday in mainly the higher elevations of the far northern tier. Thermal profiles continue to indicate a deep warm layer and shallow near-surface below-freezing layer, indicating a likelihood for freezing rain where wintry precip occurs.
Surface Arctic high pressure area in southern Canada will makes its way southeast into the northern plains into tonight before sliding east through Thursday. Otherwise, the highs today are expected to be below zero in the northeast cwa to 10 to 15 degrees above in the southwest cwa. On Thursday, slightly warmer air will return on increasing south winds. The upper pattern stays mostly the same with a eastern CONUS trough and a western CONUS ridge leading to northwest flow aloft.
617 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (Today and tonight) After a couple of very mild and spring like days to start off the week, winter returns with a vengeance as a strong cold front barrels down into west central Texas today. Otherwise, as mentioned above, the main story today will be the Arctic cold front sweeping down into the area. Strong cold advection will result in temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s tonight, with some spots possibly dipping into the teens.
A cold front was draped across the area early this morning, extending from south of Joplin to just north of Springfield to near Lebanon and Salem.
621 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Cold front moving through north Texas this am looks to make the southeast Texas this evening then the southcentral Louisiana coast after midnight tonight.
Winds will be out of the south at 10 kts until the cold front moves through the terminals.
410 AM MST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure continues to build across the the Pacific Northwest as it continues to push eastward, as the deepening low pressure system continues tracking eastward from the central Canadian border into the Great Lakes. Current surface analysis depicts the cold frontal boundary have continued digging southward into southern Colorado, with a portion of the boundary becoming stationary along the Rocky Mountains and northward across the Laramie Range. Should start to see the freezing precipitation to all snow transition early this morning at 12z, but could be as late as 16z, when the saturated layer drops into the dendritic growth zone.
The first will be a warm front today, which will graze northwest sections with some light rain/drizzle at times, especially from around Cape Blanco northward. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s for the west side valleys and along the coast, while areas east of the Cascades and in NE California will be in the mid to upper 40s. Brief upper ridging will move into the area tonight. The second disturbance -- an upper trough and cold front -- will swing through the area on Thursday with a continued chance of light rain across northern Coos, Douglas and NW Klamath counties. Showers could linger into Thursday evening in the Cascades north of Crater Lake, but the air mass will dry out rapidly overnight as high pressure builds in.
(Today and tonight) After a couple of very mild and spring like days to start off the week, winter returns with a vengeance as a strong cold front barrels down into west central Texas today. Otherwise, as mentioned above, the main story today will be the Arctic cold front sweeping down into the area. Strong cold advection will result in temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s tonight, with some spots possibly dipping into the teens.
934 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Another cold start to the morning, with some isolated spots across the inland Nature Coast getting down to freezing again, though not as widespread as yesterday morning. Conditions expected to continue to moderate as winds become more E/SE with the high pressure center shifting to over the Atlantic this morning. Highs are on track to warm into the lower to mid 70s most locations this afternoon. High pressure will keep pleasant conditions over the coastal waters through Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Colder air will overspread Oklahoma and northern Texas this morning behind a cold front. For consistency, will keep the previous mention of mainly light rain/drizzle in the forecast for today, but will go with either rain/ perhaps freezing drizzle across central Oklahoma.
412 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Key Messages: - Arctic high pressure to bring gusty northwest winds today, resulting in localized areas of blowing snow across western Minnesota.
Northwest Sandhills will see the high accumulations, closer to 1 inch, the farther south, the less snow accumulation, with once again some areas, possibly not seeing any accumulation due to low level dry air intrusion.
Rain is expected to develop along and behind the cold front during the day as a mid level trof moves east into the Southern Plains. With temperatures falling fairly quickly to below freezing, we could even end up with some travel impacts, especially on untreated and elevated roadways. In fact, wind chills may not make it out of the lower to mid teens during the day Thursday.
Strong upper high over the Eastern Pacific will build east into California through the week with dry weather and warming temperatures. Afternoon highs will generally be from the low 60's and upper 60's.
Forecast soundings and ensemble guidance suggest a mix of rain and snow with a narrow band of wintry mix/freezing rain in between. Places that see snow could see up to an inch, places that see freezing rain could see a light glaze to a couple hundredths of an inch of ice, and storm total QPF will range from a few hundredths to a little over a tenth of an inch per latest guidance. In fact, forecast high temperatures bring mostly everyone back above freezing by late in the weekend.
With an area of high pressure set up over the Pacific Ocean, a northwesterly flow aloft will effectively open the door for weather systems to drop down through the Desert Southwest. The associated cold frontal passage will leave behind a tight north to south surface pressure gradient across the Mojave Desert. These gusty north winds will be focused in the lower Colorado River Valley, with a gusty hot spot bringing 1 to 2 ft waves to Lake Mohave near Katherine Landing.
747 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing the risk for rain then snow showers. Updates to the forecast focused mainly on bringing light precipitation a bit further north late in the day ahead of the cold front, which will advance into our area this afternoon. Southerly flow has already pushed the majority of the CWA above freezing, and much of the precipitation during the daylight hours will be in the form of rain. Today's cold front will settle in south of the area this evening. The highest QPF, and in turn, snowfall, will be right along the front. The highest accumulations would be placed from the Mason-Dixon line southward. This trough will also increase the cold air advection, allowing for temperatures to rapidly decrease overnight.
A gradual warming trend is then anticipated for this Wednesday and into late week as mid/upper level high pressure off of the West Coast builds eastward. This will allow for breezy offshore flow to develop in the higher terrain of the greater San Francisco Bay Area late today into tomorrow.
527 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 A surface and upper level trough associated with high pressure centered over the Montana/Saskatchewan border is making its way across the area this morning. Thursday, the area can expect to see southerly winds on the back side of the area of high pressure which will now be centered over Minnesota and Iowa. Cold temperatures will continue, with highs generally in the lower 20s and lows generally in the single digits above zero.
532 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Strong arctic cold front is sliding south through the region early this morning. After the frontal passage, forecast soundings are still indicating that the low levels will slowly moisten up across southern portions of the forecast area. Beyond Thursday night, long wave trough is still expected to setup over the eastern U.
404 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Today will start with above normal temperatures before a cold front brings colder conditions this afternoon. A cold front will quickly shift southeast into the forecast area this afternoon. Went heavy on the high- resolution guidance for PoPs. Depending on mesoscale banding, which is a clear possibility with frontogenetical forcing, there may be local amounts near 3 inches in the far southeast with the highest QPF. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to mid 20s.
High temperatures Wednesday afternoon should remain below freezing across Wyoming with moderate cloud cover and cold air in place. Northwest flow continues through Wednesday with a very short-lived ridge overhead Wednesday night into Thursday. Considering most of the lower elevations across Wyoming have little to no snow on the ground temps should not plummet to near zero. With warm air advection and mostly clear skies on Thursday temps should rebound nicely east of the divide, whereas west of the divide temps will remain below freezing with clouds once again moving in as the next system approaches.
So any snow is expected to all but end with just some isolated snow showers lingering over the high country this afternoon. Thursday will be a rather dynamic day as warmer air pushes the arctic air east and temps get into the 30s to around 40 degrees. Pacific moisture from the west and an upper trough in the northwest flow will lead to increasing clouds with rain/snow showers spreading across the CWA from the west.
Cold front currently along the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK with the stronger push of colder air currently lagging across central KS.
355 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Surface Arctic high pressure area in southern Canada will makes its way southeast into the northern plains into tonight before sliding east through Thursday. Otherwise, the highs today are expected to be below zero in the northeast cwa to 10 to 15 degrees above in the southwest cwa. On Thursday, slightly warmer air will return on increasing south winds. The upper pattern stays mostly the same with a eastern CONUS trough and a western CONUS ridge leading to northwest flow aloft.
521 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front was currently moving through the area early this morning shifting winds to the north. Although winds are light at the moment, speeds will pick up later this morning to around 20kt behind the cold front. A cold front currently moving through the Texas Panhandle will move through the South Plains later this morning. This cold front will primarily bring much colder and blustery conditions today. A cloudy and cold day is in store Thursday as dense overcast encompasses the CWA with a diminishing northeasterly breeze as the positively-tilted mid/upper-level trough axis departs to the region.
649 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Today will start with above normal temperatures before a cold front brings colder conditions this afternoon. A cold front will quickly shift southeast into the forecast area this afternoon. Went heavy on the high- resolution guidance for PoPs. Depending on mesoscale banding, which is a clear possibility with frontogenetical forcing, there may be local amounts near 3 inches in the far southeast with the highest QPF. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to mid 20s.
308 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Continuing breezy conditions leading to patchy blowing snow across portions of central and eastern North Dakota will be the highlight of the short term period.
402 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 A surface and upper level trough associated with high pressure centered over the Montana/Saskatchewan border is making its way across the area this morning. Thursday, the area can expect to see southerly winds on the back side of the area of high pressure which will now be centered over Minnesota and Iowa. Cold temperatures will continue, with highs generally in the lower 20s and lows generally in the single digits above zero.
528 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Today will be much colder behind a cold front that moved through our area. The cold air will be reinforced on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 20s. Wind chills will remain in the low teens throughout the day.
Short-term model guidance has trended weaker with the low/mid level frontogenesis this afternoon/evening in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. If this indeed occurs and lingers into the early afternoon, high temperatures could be at least a couple of degrees cooler than forecast. A very strong surface anticyclone (near 99th percentile of climatology) is expected to move toward the northern CWA late Thursday night.
Current surface analysis depicts a sprawling area of high pressure centered in the vicinity of the Carolinas. From synopsis, breezes will slowly veer from the northeast to the east this afternoon through Thursday, as high pressure slides into the western North Atlantic.
Upper trough will continue to dig into MN/WI this afternoon and tonight. Falling snow should not be the prime concern surrounding the system (cold front) for Fri aftn into the eve; rather southerly winds ahead of it and more northerly winds succeeding it will yield the threat of impacts caused by blowing and drifting of the snow. Sun night into Mon system looks to be a sharper clipper with the low center bisecting the state of North Dakota in some fashion, while offering more in the way of FGEN and banding potential.
Cold front at this time was moving into SE OK with gusty north winds behind the boundary. Temperatures will continue fall this afternoon, with initial rain becoming a freezing rain sleet mix before turning to light snow by mid to late afternoon across NW AR.
(The rest of this afternoon/evening) Cold front pushing through far southeast Oklahoma and west-Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to fall through the afternoon hours across aforementioned area with light freezing rain/sleet developing, transitioning more toward sleet/snow. (Tonight through Wednesday) The bigger issue will likely be the bitterly cold conditions that will develop tonight as arctic high pressure continues to build into the region.
The sfc cold front has already moved through changing sfc wind directions to northerly, while the freezing line has just entered the Quad State from the northwest. Sleet is mixing in slightly ahead of the freezing line in SE Missouri and SW Illinois. The freezing line is expected to continue through the Quad State this afternoon. The western half of the CWA is more likely to see an hour or two of mixed precipitation with sleet or perhaps freezing rain before switching to snow, while eastern areas are less likely to see sleet/freezing rain during the rain to snow transition. The Arctic air brought in will drop lows tonight to around 10-20, while the wind results in early morning wind chills below 0 for much of S Illinois and SE Missouri and in the lower single digits for W Kentucky and SW Indiana.
The main threat from this upper trough will be for the potential of freezing rain in those areas that have seen cold air pooling, especially in the Yakima/Kittitas valleys as well as valleys across the northern Blues. Otherwise, a slight chance of rain will be possible across the Basin with snow on the higher peaks of the Cascades and the Wallowas.
This will affect areas west of I-29 the most as they will get the most time with southerly winds, allowing their temperatures to reach up into the lower 20s. By the evening hours, the surface pressure gradient tightens up as a fast moving low pressure system moves across central Canada, dragging a front across the northern plains.
Winds behind the cold front continued to gust in the mid to upper 20 MPH this afternoon. Rural areas may actually be cooler as well.
1133 AM MST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure continues to build across the the Pacific Northwest as it continues to push eastward, as the deepening low pressure system continues tracking eastward from the central Canadian border into the Great Lakes. Current surface analysis depicts the cold frontal boundary have continued digging southward into southern Colorado, with a portion of the boundary becoming stationary along the Rocky Mountains and northward across the Laramie Range. Should start to see the freezing precipitation to all snow transition early this morning at 12z, but could be as late as 16z, when the saturated layer drops into the dendritic growth zone.
Models indicate these clouds will continue to diminish through the afternoon, due to the high pressure system moving in and bringing in drier air to the area. Surface Arctic high pressure area in southern Canada will makes its way southeast into the northern plains into tonight before sliding east through Thursday. Otherwise, the highs today are expected to be below zero in the northeast cwa to 10 to 15 degrees above in the southwest cwa. On Thursday, slightly warmer air will return on increasing south winds. The upper pattern stays mostly the same with a eastern CONUS trough and a western CONUS ridge leading to northwest flow aloft.
At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic allows for south to southeasterly winds to continue over the region. Finally, a strong cold front, located from the Ohio River Valley down to Texas will continue to push southeastward throughout the day, reaching our region by early Thursday morning. Currently not expecting any thunder, but will not rule out one or two rumbles out over the Gulf waters, as the highest CAPE values (around 500 J/kg) will likely remain offshore. Lows tonight will range from the low 40s northwest (due to earlier passage of the front) to mid 50s to the east. By Thursday morning, a cold front will approach the region from the northwest.
Key Messages: - Arctic high pressure to bring gusty northwest winds today, resulting in localized areas of blowing snow across western Minnesota.
Strong pres rises of 9mb/3hr immediately behind the low combined with the strong CAA is bringing strong winds across the UP. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough across the ern U. otherwise VLIFR/LIFR conditions will slowly improve to IFR at CMX and MVFR at KIWD by late afternoon/early evening as a low pressure system shifts east. With the wind, freezing spray will continue to be a problem for this forecast period. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ243>251-264>267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-240>242-263.
Otherwise, winds will shift around to the NW during the afternoon with a cold frontal passage. Showers will linger into the evening, and may change to freezing or frozen precipitation later tonight before ending.
Arctic high slides through eastern Dakotas tonight resulting in a warmer temperatures for Thursday.