Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A rogue rain shower or thunderstorm will be possible this evening in advance of a cold front near KCDS but chances are very low. A cold front will move through the area this evening shifting light winds to the north to northeast. /issued 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ An upper ridge over the Great Basin is not expected to move much today. The main story will be a cold front moving through the area late this evening and overnight stemming from a system moving into the northern Great Lakes. The evolving Omega Block over the Great Basin is expected to continue to intensify through the end of the week, with a ~594 dam mid/upper-level anticyclone centering over the Four Corners region.
This is the area tied to a nearly stagnant upper trough axis, and where higher low level moisture was prevalent. Temps will be a few degrees warmer tonight, given the southerly flow bringing in higher dewpoints during the day, and expect lows in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will trail from this low, south-southwestward through the Mississippi Valley. The trough will quickly move eastward, helping the cold front advance through the TN Valley during the day Wednesday. Behind the front, a brief glimpse of Fall is expected as high pressure settles in across the region and northerly flow advects a cooler air mass into the region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Another 500mb trough swings across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as the mid level ridge remains anchored across the Desert SW. Another cold front sweeps south into northern Texas surging drier air southward before generally dissipating.
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Upper level ridging will persist over the western CONUS through the period.
852 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 No significant changes to the forecast this morning with generally clear skies across the area downstream of an upper level ridge axis located to the west across WA/ID.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to amplify over the Northern Rockies this afternoon and Wednesday, allowing the warming and drying trend to continue.
309 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 (Issued 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: The line of storms along the 850mb cold front exited southeast WI and the surface front is lagging a little behind, but will clear southeast WI by 5 pm. Low pressure and associated upper low will very slowly move across Ontario tonight through Wednesday.
Cold front will be entering northwest portions of Oklahoma shortly, with steady but relatively slow progress southward through tonight. However, with increasing mid-upper level flow and weak upper trough moving into northeast Oklahoma overnight, we could see some elevated storm activity continuing into southeast portions of Oklahoma tomorrow morning. Slightly cooler temperatures still look like a good bet for tomorrow with dominant northeast to easterly low level flow. Most areas should see highs at least 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those seen today, with parts of north-central Oklahoma possibly see highs 15 degrees cooler than those see this afternoon (mid 80s as opposed to 100).
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Cold front working its way through the region early this morning although any meaningful moisture displaced to our northeast and thus main impact from its passage will be in the way of gustier winds. Outside of the breezier conditions, a quiet Tuesday expected with the frontal passage flushing out yesterday's upper level wildfire smoke as well as ushering in cooler temperatures. Likely enough of a pressure gradient on the backside of the Great Lakes troughing to keep breezier conditions into Wednesday afternoon, although not as strong as today's anticipated gusts. Upper level ridging continues to build to the west through the second half of the work week.
This north to south movement of the high clouds though is clear indication of the pattern we are in with a strong ridge of high pressure sitting to our west across the Great Basin, with northerly flow moving across the western slope, helping transport all that smoke from NorCal, the PacNW and Intermountain West clockwise around the high. Smoke is expected to remain trapped underneath the high and recirculate as long as this ridge remains in place, which looks to be through the rest of the week. Very dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains firmly in place overhead, also allowing smoke to remain trapped.
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Warmer air will flood central Pennsylvania tonight and Wednesday ahead of a cold front to cross the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
A strong low level inversion developed last night, as there were poor to moderate RH recoveries and warmer temperatures along the higher elevations compared to the mountain valleys. The inversion will weaken by late morning, but the mountains will quickly warm into the 80s while the lower elevations warm to around 85 to 95.
256 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The main upper level ridge will continue to keep its grip on the area during the next couple of days.
/issued 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ An upper ridge over the Great Basin is not expected to move much today. The main story will be a cold front moving through the area late this evening and overnight stemming from a system moving into the northern Great Lakes. The evolving Omega Block over the Great Basin is expected to continue to intensify through the end of the week, with a ~594 dam mid/upper-level anticyclone centering over the Four Corners region.
A weak back door cold front pushing through the northeast plains today and through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening will bring a few gusts between 20 and 25kt along and behind it. Unseasonably hot and dry condtions are forecast through the week as strong high pressure strengthens over the Four Corners. With very dry air in place, overnight low temperatures are forecast to be on the cooler side. Drying of the atmosphere over NM continues under the influence of an expansive upper high, centered over NV at an anomalously high (for early Sep. Today's highs will generally be 5-10 degrees above normal and several degrees warmer than yesterday's. The upper high will continue to dominate Wednesday, with similar high temperatures forecast across our area.
/Issued 730 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ GA will remain on the southern fringes of a Great Lakes upper trough through the short term. By Wed night the upper level trough centered over the Great Lake states will have pushed south into the southern states along with a second surface frontal boundary pushing into NW GA. The second and much drier cold front moves into NW GA late Wed into Thu morning and pushes the old stalled boundary and the tropical wave south and east across the state.
A large summertime high was positioned over the intermountain west with broad troughing across the eastern half of the conus. A weak cold front positioned across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri will approach the region this evening, and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. For Wednesday, fantastic weather is expected with highs only in the low to mid 80s.
1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A strong ridge persists over the Great Basin with northwesterly flow aloft downstream into the OH Valley. There is a weakness in the ridge over the Lower MS Valley but the air mass remains quite dry across the region. The upper level pattern bringing this nice weather to the Mid- South is northwest flow aloft, between an upper low to the northeast and an upper high to the west. There a couple waves that will move around the upper low that is near the Great Lakes and this will bring the chance of rain on Wednesday. By the weekend an upper high moves into the area.
Dry across the area today with upper ridging over TX and weak upper troughing over SWLA.
238 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front will move southeast across our region late tonight into early Wed morning. High temps will be in the lower 80s.
Temperature wise, we should be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 87 64 83 59 / 10 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 86 63 81 58 / 10 40 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 85 60 81 57 / 10 40 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 61 79 53 / 10 40 40 0 0.
114 PM PDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Dry, hot weather to continue for the next few days across the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert due to a strong ridge of high pressure.
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Short wave trough entering Ontario continues to amplify or strengthen this morning. Will be watching southern extent of convection as associated cold front pushes through the area. As this passing wave becomes closed upper low north of Great Lakes we transition into cooler Wednesday with autumn-like clouds and possibility of some diurnal showers in northwest flow. By Wednesday night, skies should clear off again and with cooler temperatures and light winds, will have to watch favored bog areas in central Wisconsin for any frost possibilities.
251 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Northwest flow aloft continues across the Mid-South downstream of the anomalous ridge over the Intermountain West. This ridge is quite strong with 500 mb geopotential heights among max climatological values across NV/UT. Meanwhile, a fairly strong trough is digging over the Great Lakes leading to a +PNA synoptic pattern. In the near-term, the trough digging across the Great lakes will send a weak cold front through the Mid-South tomorrow. Low-level moisture return ahead of this system will be scant, but we do anticipate an uptick in column moisture along/ahead of the cold front with a band of PWATs near 1. The western ridge shifts a bit eastward over the Southern Rockies by the end of the week, finally breaking down late in the weekend and allowing the westerlies to sink farther south across the CONUS.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ The latest mid-level analysis indicates deep ridging centered over the Intermountain West with the ridge extending into the ArkLaTex region. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and extends northwestward into the area. Another area of high pressure extends from Montana into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from the Great Lakes across the Missouri Valley into Oklahoma. Highs tomorrow are close to the NBM/GFS solutions in the lower 90s across much of SE OK/SW AR to the mid 90s in central Louisiana and Deep East Texas.
Upper level high pressure will be centered near the Four Corners region late tonight into Wednesday, with the ridge axis extending southeast into Texas. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to drift south into portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland by afternoon. The front, in combination with a weak disturbance rotating around the ridge axis, may result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 during the afternoon hours.
232 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Temperatures have been slower to warm today due to cooler air behind last night's cold front and the increase in smoke today. Not much change in the weather for Wednesday as the upper level high over the Great Basin dominates the weather pattern.
In a pattern typically reminiscent of autumn, low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis over Hudson Bay will allow for a cold front to propagate eastward over the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday.
202 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front swept through this morning and brought scattered showers across the area. Early this afternoon, the cold front was well off to the east of the area stretching from northeastern Wisconsin curving through southeastern Iowa. Then temperatures increase into the lower 70s by the afternoon with mostly sunny skies and a few developing cumulus clouds.
Upper ridge spinning over the NV/UT border. Wednesday, upper ridge maintains dry northwest flow as temperatures rise to a couple of degrees above normal.
355 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front will provide a chance of precipitation late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather will following the front late this week into the weekend. Cold front draped across the central Great Lakes back into central Illinois this evening will shift east overnight into Wednesday. Amplified mid level flow with mean trof over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the west.
A more significant cold front will push into northwest portions of the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon. It could bring a few showers, but drier deep layer air should limit deep convective potential in spite of temperatures reaching the lower 90s.
The gusty northwest winds occurring today will diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as the high settles in. Rather warm air makes its way into the region as the western CONUS ridge begins to move over the plains.
245 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Surface observations show strongest wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range, largely along and north of the Highway 14 corridor, with wind speeds expected to decrease into the evening hours. Otherwise, early afternoon satellite imagery shows very little in the way of clouds across the region on the backside of the upper-level trough.
1112 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Mean western CONUS ridging will support overall warm and dry weather through this week. Breezy NW winds can be expected across the NW through central SD plains today on the backside of the departing upper trough.
Most of the area will see a similar day, but with cooler temperatures and somewhat lighter winds on Wednesday. Any SHRA/TSRA activity in the northeast tomorrow afternoon should quickly end by evening, with high pressure and lighter winds bringing 40s to much of the area for lows Wednesday night.
1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 High pressure continues over the area. A cold front currently in Kansas will move through Arkansas tonight. A cold front will drop south into the state tonight into Wed morning. A new cold front will drop SE into the state late this evening and overnight.
An upper level trough passage in association with a weak surface frontal boundary passage will provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms/scattered showers and thunderstorms higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region as day progresses on Wednesday.
The cold front has pushed well south of the area, and the entire area is seeing gusty north winds in its wake. Skies remain clear aside from some haze from the high level smoke just behind the front.
247 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A ridge of high pressure will drift east across Pennsylvania today while an ill-defined stationary frontal boundary stretches over the southern tier counties of the state.
1127 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion No significant changes to the forecast this morning with generally clear skies across the area downstream of an upper level ridge axis located to the west across WA/ID.
Weak high pressure has moved over South Central Texas today. Temperatures are generally two to five degrees cooler than 24 hours ago after a weak cold front moved through. An upper level ridge will build over Texas from the west tonight and strengthen through the rest of the short term period. Temperatures will be warmer tonight and Wednesday climbing back above normal in most places.
Strong high pressure aloft will be the predominant weather feature across the Southwestern U. Daily high temperatures will mostly range from 105 to 108 degrees across the Arizona lower deserts to a couple of degrees warmer across southeast California and southwest Arizona. The unseasonably strong high pressure ridge across most of the Western U. The ridge center is currently analyzed across central Nevada with 500mb heights around 598dm, likely around record climo for the date in that area. The expansiveness of the ridge also engulfs the entire Desert Southwest creating strong subsidence aloft which will continue to suppress most if not all of convection over the next couple days and likely longer. If the NBM trends warmer over the next few model runs, additional localized areas may need an Excessive Heat Warning.
454 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Warmer air will flood central Pennsylvania tonight and Wednesday ahead of a cold front to cross the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
259 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Synoptic setup for today has the CWA on the southern border of a Great Lakes trough with a high over the western US and the beginnings of a tropical wave down in the Gulf. By Wednesday afternoon the aforementioned trough is expected to sink further into the area, bringing another frontal boundary towards the area. Simultaneously, the wave in the Gulf is expected to approach the Florida/Alabama coast advecting deep tropical moisture across all of central Georgia and to portions of northern Georgia before getting swept up into the trough.
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A weak cold front stalls out across the Region through Wednesday, creating mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
222 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Aviation - Upper Troughing and Severe Threat today followed by deamplification to quasi-zonal flow regime There are currently 2 lines of thunderstorms heading this way. The latest guidance still shows 1500 j/kg mix layer cape this afternoon and the low level jet still is forecast to strengthen this afternoon as it moves across our CWA. Environmental winds are strong with 40 to 50 knots near 5 kft AGL and some of this could mix down in the cold air advection behind the cold front, but more likely in any solid line of convection along or ahead of the front. Scattered showers will persist on Wednesday under upper troughing with diurnal and lake enhancement in the cool air.
309 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 An upper level trough moving off the east coast of the U.
ADK After the slight chances for late day convection as mentioned above along the cold front in southeast Kansas, much drier and somewhat cooler air will advect south across Kansas tonight through Wednesday.
Upper level ridging will persist over the western CONUS through the period.
1121 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 If it wasn't for the smoke we would be seeing mainly clear blue skies over the next few days as high pressure is in control of the pattern and very dry air is in place. Rockies the center of the high pressure cell is favorable for smoke to continuously rotate into the Great Basin.
These clear skies are a result of the high pressure center that is currently centered over the area and is forecast to begin migrating eastward towards the Four Corners region on Wednesday. As a result of the high pressure and clear skies, strong daytime heating will occur with "High" and "Very High" heat risk values for this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the 70s.
Cold front, currently located roughly along a DHT-PYX axis, is pushing south and should clear the CWA this evening. This bit of moisture may allow an updraft or two to survive as low level convergence occurs along the front, with the southeastern Texas Panhandle favored - temperatures aloft appear too warm for convection farther west due to the influence of a stout upper high over UT. Unfortunately for fans of cooler weather, the atmosphere should dry out following the frontal passage, so few clouds are expected. Additionally, the UT upper high will begin to shift southeastward over the Four Corners, with heights building aloft a bit compared to Tuesday.
On Wednesday, upper low shifts east with upper ridge also creeping east.
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 High pressure and light winds will mean VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours.
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The cold front is currently along a Kirksville to Kansas City line and moving southeast.
Wednesday will be another breezy day, albeit less than today, as well as a chance for scattered showers near LOW as upper trough's influence lingers. Zonal flow across the Northern Plains is favored by guidance along the northern extent of the stronger ridge in the southwest US.
/issued 1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ A strong ridge persists over the Great Basin with northwesterly flow aloft downstream into the OH Valley. There is a weakness in the ridge over the Lower MS Valley but the air mass remains quite dry across the region. The upper level pattern bringing this nice weather to the Mid- South is northwest flow aloft, between an upper low to the northeast and an upper high to the west. There a couple waves that will move around the upper low that is near the Great Lakes and this will bring the chance of rain on Wednesday. By the weekend an upper high moves into the area.
1131 AM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue today through Wednesday as a strong ridge persists over the western CONUS. This morning, a weak cold front is slowly advancing southwestward and will get hung up along the Continental Divide. The dry northwest flow becomes more westerly on Wednesday as the ridge axis approaches the area. The only notable change from Tuesday will be warmer highs, about 8 to 10 degrees above normal.
A strong upper ridge to our southwest will build a bit into Montana.
239 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The Florida Keys and the South Florida mainland remain under the general influence of a stagnant, weak, and broad ridge extending across the western Atlantic. However, recent KBYX VAD wind profile data shows mean weak southeast to south flow in the lowest 1-3 km of the atmosphere.
Although some of the models will support relatively mild overnight lows around 60 degrees or higher in the far southeast sections (Pratt/Coldwater/Medicine Lodge) there is ample model data supporting lows falling as low as the low 50s across sections of west central Kansas by Wednesday morning.
Surface temperatures were generally in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. For tonight, a cold front will push toward the region from the north. For Wednesday, cold front should cross the Ohio River just after sunrise (around 12Z). Highs on Wednesday should be a little cooler due to the anticipated clouds and precipitation around. High pressure at the surface and mild ridging overhead is expected to keep cloud cover and precipitation to the south and north of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across primarily northeast Oklahoma during the early to mid evening remain a possibility, with winds being the most likely severe threat given the high instability and fairly weak wind fields. After the cooler temperatures tomorrow, the afternoon mercury seemingly has nowhere to go but up, as the upper level ridging currently over the western United States builds eastward into the Southern Plains through the weekend.
958 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front is entering northeast Oklahoma at this time, and will push southeast across the area overnight. A cold front is expected to push southeast into Northeast Oklahoma this evening and across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across primarily northeast Oklahoma during the early to mid evening remain a possibility, with winds being the most likely severe threat given the high instability and fairly weak wind fields. After the cooler temperatures tomorrow, the afternoon mercury seemingly has nowhere to go but up, as the upper level ridging currently over the western United States builds eastward into the Southern Plains through the weekend.
405 PM MST Tue Sep 7 2021 Updated Aviation Strong high pressure aloft will be the predominant weather feature across the Southwestern U. Daily high temperatures will mostly range from 105 to 108 degrees across the Arizona lower deserts to a couple of degrees warmer across southeast California and southwest Arizona. An expansive and anomalous anticyclone across the Great Basin will gradually slide east and south over the next several days.
242 PM MST Tue Sep 7 2021 Most areas will see dry conditions for much of the upcoming week as high pressure settles over the region.