Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tightening pressure gradients due to strong cyclogenesis over the upper mid-west/Great Lakes and ridging east of the Appalachians will produce strong boundary layer southerly winds. The main focus will be some lingering gusty winds Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front, however, the strongest gusts of 20-30mph should remain limited to areas of higher elevation.
Latest runs of the HRRR (18-19Z) are also suggesting development along the surface cold front towards 01-03Z. As cold air advection increases behind the cold front after 03Z, 1000-900 mb lapse rates increase to near 8. Strong westerly-northwesterly winds of 40-50 knots are expected to follow behind the cold front, and with the steepening low level lapse rates, expect wind gusts to surface for a period. Potential for rain showers increases next Saturday as deepening trough across the west creates the chance for warm air advection showers. Cloud ceilings are expected to slowly rise as as cold front passes through the region this evening.
Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Plains. Band of rain/snow along the cold front is shifting into central SD, with a bit of snow beginning to increase in our western zones with secondary cold front.
506 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2020 Updated for expiration of Red Flag Warning across eastern CO, and the expiration of the High Wind Warning for the San Luis Valley. Upper trough axis crossing the mountains has spread strong winds across all of southern CO with gusts up to 77 mph reported at MYP and gusts to around 60 mph across the plains. though focus will will be shifting east and across the higher peaks and passes through the evening as winds across the lower elevations of the mountains/valleys start to come down. with a ribbon of warmer air along/west of I-25 where enhanced westerly drainage winds into the sfc lee trough continue overnight. Northwest winds gusting to 40 mph will still be possible across the higher elevations and east facing slopes of the central mountains during the afternoon.
Better snow amounts in the upslope areas and ridgetops.
As tonight progresses, an upper trough will approach and push a sharp surface cold front into the MS River Valley toward midnight, and then across mid-state through Sun morning. Behind this surface frontal passage, surface and low level high pressure and dry air will take control through next Saturday afternoon. Aloft, upper air pattern will transition into a ridging pattern by mid work week, followed by another incoming trough late work week.
/issued 209 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020/ Ridging to hold over the region through the weekend keeping the warm and humid conditions in place. A large upper trough will move from the Great Lakes region Sunday and set up over the Eastern U.
519 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Upper level low pressure trough bringing mid and high level clouds to the cwa along with some light rain to parts of central sd will move east into the evening. The main issue for the forecast for tonight will be the strengthening northwest winds across the east as the surface pressure gradient tightens up behind the upper trough and the caa affecting the depth of the mixing layer. Sunday should be a mostly sunny day with decreasing winds and with cooler highs in the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
For Sunday, look for a return to cooler temperatures with highs expected to reach the middle 20s near the International Border and the upper 30s in southeastern ND. Northwest flow would follow with some colder air Mon aftn into Tue with highs near freezing. The mid week will see some short wave ridging and a milder temp regime. Flow will turn more zonal, as a southwest trough ejects energy and pcpn into the Central Plains, probably far enough south of us to cause any concerns.
Mild and dry weather can be expected through mid week when a weak Pacific trough swings over the western states.
419 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2020 Coverage and snowfall rates have decreased across the northern and central Colorado mountains this afternoon in the wake of the mid- level trough which passed over the region earlier in the day. A ridge building over the West on Sunday night will bring an end to the showers in the evening. Expect colder overnight lows tonight with single digits expected in the higher valleys with teens and low 20s elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will be cooler than normal, but not by a lot. The ridge mentioned at the end of the short term discussion builds early in the coming week ahead of an eastward propagating mid-level Pacific trough.
401 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2020 Coverage and snowfall rates have decreased across the northern and central Colorado mountains this afternoon in the wake of the mid- level trough which passed over the region earlier in the day. A ridge building over the West on Sunday night will bring an end to the showers in the evening. Expect colder overnight lows tonight with single digits expected in the higher valleys with teens and low 20s elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will be cooler than normal, but not by a lot. The ridge mentioned at the end of the short term discussion builds early in the coming week ahead of an eastward propagating mid-level Pacific trough.
/issued 237 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ Upper trough pivoting into the central Plains this afternoon. As trough pulls away and winds begin to decouple, winds will come down rapidly toward sunset. Weak cold front will follow in the wake of this system with a shift to north winds around 04-06z. Low temps early Sunday morning near or below freezing on the Caprock with mid to upper 30s in the Rolling Plains. Strong NW upper flow over the central Rockies will result in quick surface lee troughing Sunday from eastern CO south along the TX/NM border and thus moderate gusty SW winds by afternoon esp over the NW South Plains/SW Panhandle. Sunny and slightly cooler day Sunday with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s under full insolation.
443 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Moisture continues to stream north ahead of an approaching cold front.
540 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Expecting some MVFR stratus (and possibly some patchy fog south of I-10) to develop ahead of a cold front that'll be passing thru late tonight followed by clearing and breezy conditions on Sunday. Warm and humid conditions come to an abrupt end tonight/early Sunday as strong Pacific cold front sweeps through the region Sunday morning and should be off the coast by 7 or 8 am.
629 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 [Through Tonight] High pressure will be east northeast of the region Tonight, with a weak inverted trough over the coastal waters. The combination of a moist onshore flow, and convergence associated with trough will lead to cloud cover and potential for a few showers near coast.
The main concern with the potential for thunderstorms to impact the western Arkansas sites through 06z as a cold front sweeps through the region rather quickly. This activity would likely shift east of the area by early evening, although expect additional development as the cold front enters northwest AR around 03-04Z.
824 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control through early Sunday. It will be a mild and muggy night with overnight lows in the upper 60s north, and around 70 to the lower 70s central and south. On Sunday the low clouds and fog will burn off by mid to late morning with another warm and muggy day expected. Similar to today some isolated showers will again be possible across central and southern zones during the afternoon with temperatures again climbing into the lower to mid 80s areawide.
This will hold until ceilings begin to lower ahead of a cold front. Shower chances remain on the lower end so VCSH is forecasted for all terminals. The cold front over West Texas this afternoon will rapidly move southeast this evening and overnight, entering the Inland Southeast Texas counties just before daybreak, and spreading across the remainder of the area by noon. Behind the front, much cooler and drier air to follow for most of the upcoming week.
For Sunday, look for a return to cooler temperatures with highs expected to reach the middle 20s near the International Border and the upper 30s in southeastern ND. Northwest flow would follow with some colder air Mon aftn into Tue with highs near freezing. The mid week will see some short wave ridging and a milder temp regime. Flow will turn more zonal, as a southwest trough ejects energy and pcpn into the Central Plains, probably far enough south of us to cause any concerns. Currently VFR with mid and high clouds, but MVFR not too far away in northwestern ND behind an incoming cold front.
A southwest breeze will persist through the rest of the evening until an upstream cold front passes through overnight. Due to the low likelihood and isolated coverage, PoPs will be kept at 20%.
255 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2020 Upper trough axis crossing the mountains has spread strong winds across all of southern CO with gusts up to 77 mph reported at MYP and gusts to around 60 mph across the plains. though focus will will be shifting east and across the higher peaks and passes through the evening as winds across the lower elevations of the mountains/valleys start to come down. with a ribbon of warmer air along/west of I-25 where enhanced westerly drainage winds into the sfc lee trough continue overnight. Northwest winds gusting to 40 mph will still be possible across the higher elevations and east facing slopes of the central mountains during the afternoon.
Upper level low pressure trough bringing mid and high level clouds to the cwa along with some light rain to parts of central sd will move east into the evening. The main issue for the forecast for tonight will be the strengthening northwest winds across the east as the surface pressure gradient tightens up behind the upper trough and the caa affecting the depth of the mixing layer. Sunday should be a mostly sunny day with decreasing winds and with cooler highs in the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
The High Wind Warning for parts of swrn Nebraska can continue in place until 6 pm CST. This would normally set the stage for radiational cooling across wrn Nebraska but gradient winds associated with low pressure across the upper Midwest stay up tonight between 10 and 15 mph. The temperature forecast leans on the short term model blend plus bias correction which is several degrees warmer than the guidance blend. The temperature forecast Sunday uses the guidance blend plus bias correction which was actually cooler than the short term blend.
The cold front is still well west of our area at the time of the update. The low will continue to deepen over the next 6 hours and the low level wind fields will strengthen in response. While the low level jet is very impressive, the low levels will be pretty stable, so there won't be much mixing to drag those stronger winds down to the surface. A cold front will approach Middle TN tonight and move through the area tomorrow.
Gusty west winds will decrease and become northwest to north after sunset as a cold front moves through the region.
Then high pressure will expand over the Great Basin to yield a couple unseasonably warm days.
541 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Widespread wind gusts in the 40s have been reported in the Wind Advisory area, with the highest gust so far of 53 mph at Williams Lookout in Hettinger County (which is one of our typical windy spots). Cold front continues to push southeast, with low stratus marking the boundary, located approximately from Dickinson to Rugby as of 2330 UTC. Winds will remain breezy to windy through the night tonight, and it will be windy along and east of the Highway 83 corridor Sunday morning, but should see diminishing winds Sunday afternoon. A digging upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will result in downstream ridging across the western U.
A dry cold front will push through the area later today into tonight with winds shifting to a northwesterly direction behind the front. Upper level westerly winds associated with an upper level High to our south will prevail. High temps will be in the low 80s. Main feature through the short term will be cold front that is expected to move through the area late Sunday afternoon and completely push through the region by Monday morning. Breezy and drier conditions are expected for Monday as northerly winds bring drier and cooler air into the region. High temperatures will be approximately 10 degrees cooler than Sunday's high temperatures.
Pressure gradient between the high pressure system and the low lifting northeast over the western Great Lakes will be pretty tight over the area, especially over the northeast half of the CWA. For tonight, the wind should diminish significantly by sunset with high pressure over the lower Mississippi valley. A clear sky and a dry atmosphere will lend to temperatures dipping into the low to mid 30s overnight.
This system pushed a cold front through the area earlier with surface pressures increasing rapidly behind the front. Upper-level ridging builds across the middle of North America with the upper jet pushed into the Northern Plains and southern Canada.
232 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Approaching cold front set to push into our northwest toward sunrise, then race rapidly east and out of the mid-state by early afternoon ahead of a trailing upper trough. SFC/LL high pressure takes hold while upper trough shifts to upper ridging around mid-week ahead of our next storm system.
Tonight the winds will decrease after sunset and based on clear skies and the forecast dew points in the teens the lows tonight will likely range from 25 to around 32 degrees. For the first half of the work week a slow warming trend is expected as an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies and out into the Plains.
Initial surge will be with the storm's warm front, so southern areas will get slowly warmer overnight. The storm's weak cold front and more pcpn will sag south Sunday then stall across southern Idaho Sunday night. The frontal zone will shift back north again Monday morning as a warm front, and by Monday afternoon all areas will be in the warm sector with at least partial clearing.
A warmer weather system on Monday will bring valley rain and mountain snow.
Winds remain out of the south tonight but gradually shift to more westerly Sunday morning and then northwesterly behind a cold front that moves through the area Sunday afternoon. These rain chances quickly end upon passage of the front as cooler and drier air filters in behind it. Lows tonight remain in the low/mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast due to the increasing moisture. Highs on Sunday will depend on the timing of the front, with areas across interior SE MS and SW AL topping out in the low/mid 70s before the front pushes through and temps drop or hold steady.
Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Plains. Band of rain/snow along the cold front is shifting into central SD, with a bit of snow beginning to increase in our western zones with secondary cold front. Upper ridge then builds in through mid week with dry and much warmer conditions likely.
Shower activity will then exit our region towards 04Z Sunday as a cold front pushes across the terminals. Areas of morning fog and low clouds are expected on Sunday with a slight chance of afternoon showers over ne Florida ahead of a cold front. High temperatures will reach the low/mid 80s Sunday afternoon.
Light/variable to east winds overnight gradually shift around to north during afternoon as cold front pushes down peninsula, which also looks to limit threat of cig/vsby restrictions late in period as drier air filters into region.
Drier air is moving in through the lower levels. Short Term Update - High pressure over the eastern seaboard will be more fully off the northeast coast by morning. Our local pressure gradient will be squeezed by a high pressure system spreading eastwards into the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front stretches from the DFW area to the Big Bend region and is moving toward the southeast. Temperatures across our CWA range from the upper 50s to the lower 70s and dewpoints are about the same.
1130 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 MVFR stratus filling in across inland locations in advance of a cold front that'll be passing thru late tonight. 47 Elevated fire weather conditions developing Sunday in the wake of the cold front.
352 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Main feature of the short term is an elongating cold front that will bring chance to likely pops of showers to the CWA into early afternoon, primarily in N GA. We start off with high pressure over the Northern Plains and ridging all the was south into the Mississippi Valley and into the local area.
253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Early this morning as of 0830Z, the 500mb trough axis is pivoting northeast and should be out of KS in the next couple of hours.
An upper trough will move from the northern/central Plains east into the Midwest tonight, with associated cold front pushing south across our area. Winds will shift to the north with the cold frontal passage. Much cooler conditions are expected overnight with early Sunday morning lows 40-44 degrees across our area. Sunny but much cooler conditions are expected for Sunday.
A cold front will make its way through South Texas late tonight into early Sunday morning bringing strong north to northeasterly winds and a gradual clearing behind it.
Otherwise the main feature to focus on will be the influence of an elongating cold front and aided upper trough forcing that will bring some chance pops of showers to mainly north GA Sunday morning into early afternoon. Conditions quickly scatter out and improve by afternoon Sunday as a more prolonged ridge starts to dominate. High pressure still on track to slide into the area on Monday and dominate our weather as it slides to the east and wedges itself against the Appalachians. "Fuels" are beginning to go dormant, as they tend to do this time of year, and the high pressure locked in place will allow that trend to continue in the relatively dry airmass.
Cold front currently located near Checotah to Gravette and will continue to sweep through the remainder of the area by Midnight. The main concern with the potential for thunderstorms to impact the western Arkansas sites through 06z as a cold front sweeps through the region rather quickly. This activity would likely shift east of the area by early evening, although expect additional development as the cold front enters northwest AR around 03-04Z.
850mb temperatures warm several degrees compared to Sunday and support highs in the low to mid 60s. Low temperatures are expected to be above normal in the low 30s. The start of the forecast has a ridge firmly in place across the plains resulting in above average temperatures and dry conditions.
A cold front is currently moving through southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas with scattered showers and storms across western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Cold front currently located near Checotah to Gravette and will continue to sweep through the remainder of the area by Midnight. The main concern with the potential for thunderstorms to impact the western Arkansas sites through 06z as a cold front sweeps through the region rather quickly. This activity would likely shift east of the area by early evening, although expect additional development as the cold front enters northwest AR around 03-04Z.
A mostly dry cold front will move through the area today with meager return flow from the Gulf and weak lift. After some patchy fog this morning, some breaks in the cloud cover today are expected to allow high temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s across most of the area. For tonight, cooler and drier air will begin to move into the area behind the front.
These rain chances quickly end upon passage of the front as cooler and drier air filters in behind it. Lows tonight remain in the low/mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast due to the increasing moisture. Highs on Sunday will depend on the timing of the front, with areas across interior SE MS and SW AL topping out in the low/mid 70s before the front pushes through and temps drop or hold steady.
This will hold until ceilings begin to lower ahead of a cold front bringing them down to MVFR. Precipitation chances remain on the lower end so only VCSH is being carried for all the terminals. This will hold until ceilings begin to lower ahead of a cold front. Shower chances remain on the lower end so VCSH is forecasted for all terminals. The cold front over West Texas this afternoon will rapidly move southeast this evening and overnight, entering the Inland Southeast Texas counties just before daybreak, and spreading across the remainder of the area by noon. Behind the front, much cooler and drier air to follow for most of the upcoming week.
Latest runs of the HRRR (18-19Z) are also suggesting development along the surface cold front towards 01-03Z. As cold air advection increases behind the cold front after 03Z, 1000-900 mb lapse rates increase to near 8. Strong westerly-northwesterly winds of 40-50 knots are expected to follow behind the cold front, and with the steepening low level lapse rates, expect wind gusts to surface for a period.
1138 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 A cold front is bringing a line of thunderstorms through the area at this time. Moisture continues to stream north ahead of an approaching cold front. Additional development, in a QLCS pattern, is expected to develop along a relatively fast moving cold front, to affect the forecast area during from mid evening through the early morning hours.
The cold front is still well west of our area at the time of the update. The low will continue to deepen over the next 6 hours and the low level wind fields will strengthen in response. While the low level jet is very impressive, the low levels will be pretty stable, so there won't be much mixing to drag those stronger winds down to the surface.
229 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 An upper level trough is currently centered just east of the forecast area. With a cooler airmass in place, temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, but highs should still be able to reach the 50s under mostly clear skies this afternoon. Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Rockies before shifting over the central Plains by midweek.
Upper level low pressure trough bringing mid and high level clouds to the cwa along with some light rain to parts of central sd will move east into the evening. The main issue for the forecast for tonight will be the strengthening northwest winds across the east as the surface pressure gradient tightens up behind the upper trough and the caa affecting the depth of the mixing layer. Sunday should be a mostly sunny day with decreasing winds and with cooler highs in the upper 30s to the upper 40s. We will continue under northwesterly flow aloft Monday, with a ridge set up across the western third of the nation.
Although it will be quite a bit cooler, with the lighter winds and abundant sunshine, expect a very pleasant day. South winds return tonight with a cool night and warmer day Monday, which will be the beginnings of a warming trend that will continue through the upcoming week.
Additionally, at H85 and H7, flow relaxes as a ridge axis swings through this afternoon in the wake of yesterday's system. With the low confidence in the longevity, if any at all, in Red Flag conditions, will forego any headlines and defer to the next shift to monitor. High temperatures a degree or two warmer than today can be expected as the airmass begins to slowly modify. A general warming trend is expected into midweek as an upper level ridge builds into the central CONUS. At H85, flow will switch to southerly as a ridge builds into Lower Mississippi River Valley.
410 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 A 500mb trough is swinging through the Mississippi River Valley today, driving a cold front into the forecast area this morning. with the temps in the low 60s. and the cooler air moving in behind the front will be balanced by sunshine. In the southeast ahead of the boundary, the high for today will be by mid morning.