Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect another round of showers and tstms to develop over the higher terrain of sern CO and ern NM later this afternoon, then track southeast and possibly affect parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle as well as parts of the western and central Texas Panhandle late this afternoon and evening.
509 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft continues today as a ridge axis currently centered from eastern Saskatchewan southwestward into central Montana. Cyclonic flow on the southwestern periphery of upper trough over Ontario is resulting in isolated showers along our far eastern CWA border this morning, although expect mainly dry conditions today. As the ridge builds across the northern Plains today, warm air advection will ensue and temperatures will hit upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong southerly low level flow will advect moisture ahead of the wave and cold front.
A frontogenetic warm front is developing near the southwest border of our CWA and inching toward the northeast. Best low-level convergence looks like it could very well be this morning near the nose of the low-level jet. The warm front will move very little over time, and the instability axis should lie somewhere over our CWA, probably favoring the southwest a bit.
442 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Today another lobe of vorticity rotating around the backside of the upper closed low over the Great Lakes will provide another chance for isolated to scattered showers, with some thunder possible, especially in west central Wisconsin where CAPE is forecast to reach about 1000 J/kg this afternoon during peak heating. Any showers or thunderstorms should dissipate quickly this evening and ridging will start to move into the forecast area from the west.
It does turn cooler on Thursday, with showers ending by late in the day.
309 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Upper ridging will begin to slide east today. Very warm and dry conditions to begin with will transition ahead of the next approaching cold front. These showers and storms may linger into tonight and Thursday with that frontal passage, otherwise expect temperatures on Thursday to be notably cooler over the region.
Latest updates to short-term modes continue to show scattered thunderstorms developing later this afternoon,first over Southwest MT, then across North-central MT with an approaching cold front. It does turn cooler on Thursday, with showers ending by late in the day.
Synoptically, high pressure continues to ridge over southern Florida keeping us in a very warm and muggy environment. Temperatures are already in the low to mid 80's with heat indices in the 90's. High pressure northeast of the Bahamas continues to ridge across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.
If so, we could see the higher coverage of storms with greater intensity focused closer towards the coast, especially Brevard northward. Very warm temperatures forecast again today in the lower 90s near the coast and climbing into the M90s inland, perhaps a couple U90s within reach. The Atlantic ridge axis remains across the south-central FL peninsula today.
Additionally, temperatures and dewpoints were raised slightly through the afternoon to depict a warmer trend being seen. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 67 83 68 86 / 50 40 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 65 84 66 86 / 20 20 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 65 85 66 85 / 20 20 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 62 82 61 84 / 20 20 20 10 20.
High pressure will bring continued hot temperatures over the next couple days.
Strong high pressure for hotter than normal high temperatures into this weekend.
As of early this morning, an upper level trough was located over the Great Lakes region with ridging over the southwest CONUS. The aforementioned high pressure is progged to shift east of the forecast area by early this afternoon as a mid-level perturbation propagates across the Northern Plains. Tonight, a surface warm front lifts north across the area with increased isentropic ascent leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in east central Kansas. Northwest flow gives way to more zonal flow on Thursday as southerly surface winds and clearing skies boost temperatures back into the low 90s.
421 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Northwest flow associated with a ridging pattern continues today. The storms will dissipate or move southeast of the area in the evening with mild low temperatures in the low to mid 60s as continued southeast low level moisture advection continues. A surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest.
Drier air aloft coupled with the warming will result in some mixing out of the low level moisture. Forecast highs for the mountains today looked a little ambitious, it may be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.
623 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 The cyclonic turning in the winds aloft associated with the upper level low propagates slightly east as an upper level ridge nudges towards the Northland. Thursday begins to warm up with highs in the lower 80s across the area. An upper level trough begins to advance across MT towards MN. At the surface an occluded system works its way through the Canadian Prairies with it's associated warm front draped through the Northern Plains. This warm front continues its march eastbound and will instigate storm development. An uptick in the low level jet in the evening hours will inject additional moisture for storms to roll through the night.
Upper level ridging will build over the area from the west, suppressing thunderstorm chances, and resulting in warming temperatures for Thursday. Highs should be 2 to 5 degrees warmer on Thursday, with some Concho Valley locations potentially reaching the upper 90s.
However, some uncertainty in placement and timing of showers and storms even as early as tonight through tomorrow still exists within the high resolution models, thus degrading some of the confidence in precipitation potential at any given point in the region. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will begin to slide east today. Very warm and dry conditions to begin with will transition ahead of the next approaching cold front. These showers and storms may linger into tonight and Thursday with that frontal passage, otherwise expect temperatures on Thursday to be notably cooler over the region.
An area of low pressure continues to spin over Southeast Texas. The low is centered north of Houston and roughly over Walker County. Aloft a trough is moving through the central sections of the country creating a weakness locally.
On satellite we can see a line of clouds from southwest to northeast, and that is most likely our weak cold front.
Thursday will be mostly dry during the day, as an upper level ridge moves into the Northland. Temperatures Thursday will be warmer, with highs in the lower 80s expected.
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 North to northwest flow aloft will continue tonight into tomorrow courtesy of a weak upper level ridge centered southwest of the CWA. This evening, a weak disturbance moving through the northeast portion of the ridge will help kick off convection in central and eastern NM. Tomorrow the upper level ridge will continue to flatten as a West Coast upper trough moves westward.
In general, pattern slowly evolves through the short-term forecast period as broad upper troughing over the eastern U. shifts east and weak upper ridging builds toward the region. Ridge certainly not dominating enough to suppress all convective activity, but coverage and intensity should be on the decrease after tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will continue overnight south and east of KBOI as a Pacific cold front crosses the area.
248 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 This afternoon, low pressure and an associated cold front in south central Saskatchewan is forecast to move east to Manitoba by Thursday afternoon. The cold front will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms tonight and Thursday. On Thursday, expectations are thunderstorms will redevelop by mid afternoon along the cold front across eastern ND.
A low level ridge is stretching west over the northern Gulf, creating deep southerly low level flow and keeping moisture levels high. An upper ridge stretching west over the Gulf of Mexico helps to direct the energy exiting the Lower Mississippi River upper trough in an east- northeast direction, and for the fore the forecast area, bringing a better chance of rain to inland areas of the forecast area through the Near Term. A combination of MLCapes approaching 2500J/kg, the soupy airmass over the forecast area and nearby, along with a bit of help from a weak 850mb speed max on the southeast side of an embedded low level trough moving across the Southeast will help to create favorable conditions for convective downbursts.
Despite some areas of cumulus congestus today, convection has struggled mightily to develop and maintain with dewpoints down in the low to mid 50s and very weak midlevel lapse rates.
However, instability is forecast to be much lower across northern Oklahoma (coincident with a strengthening cap this evening) and the low-level jet axis is progged to remain across western Kansas. As a result, low temperatures will be around 5 degrees warmer than last night.
1254 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 The cyclonic turning in the winds aloft associated with the upper level low propagates slightly east as an upper level ridge nudges towards the Northland. Thursday begins to warm up with highs in the lower 80s across the area. An upper level trough begins to advance across MT towards MN. At the surface an occluded system works its way through the Canadian Prairies with it's associated warm front draped through the Northern Plains. This warm front continues its march eastbound and will instigate storm development. An uptick in the low level jet in the evening hours will inject additional moisture for storms to roll through the night.
Today another lobe of vorticity rotating around the backside of the upper closed low over the Great Lakes will provide another chance for isolated to scattered showers, with some thunder possible, especially in west central Wisconsin where CAPE is forecast to reach about 1000 J/kg this afternoon during peak heating. Any showers or thunderstorms should dissipate quickly this evening and ridging will start to move into the forecast area from the west.
More active weather expected for this weekend with the approach of a cold front. A cooler boundary layer with ample surface heating beneath remnants of an elevated mix layer based between H650 and H500 combined with synoptic ascent associated with the right entrance region of an H250 jet are combining to yield an agitated cumulus field across the region this afternoon.
243 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Upper ridging continues across the northern Great Plains, with the main axis now crossing the CWA. A low amplitude trough is crossing the Pac NW into the northern Rockies and a series of waves are embedded within the WSW flow, crossing Idaho to Wyoming. As the upper flow across the CWA transitions into the WSW direction behind the ridge access, chances for storms will increase from west to east tonight through Thursday.
A cold front was situated from central KY through far northwest TN into central AR. With some uncertainty on the low clouds clearing, high temps may struggle to reach the l-m80s, but will stick close to this based on suggested blended guidance.
328 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Currently - A surface Atlantic pressure ridge extends across South Florida resulting in light east to southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. The lower level ridge is aligned a bit further south across the Keys.
1119 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft continues today as a ridge axis currently centered from eastern Saskatchewan southwestward into central Montana. Cyclonic flow on the southwestern periphery of upper trough over Ontario is resulting in isolated showers along our far eastern CWA border this morning, although expect mainly dry conditions today. As the ridge builds across the northern Plains today, warm air advection will ensue and temperatures will hit upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong southerly low level flow will advect moisture ahead of the wave and cold front.
Today and Tomorrow: It is a downright pleasant day with temperatures in the low 80s, light winds, and mostly clear skies. A thermal ridge will build over the area Thursday. That ridge combined with strong southwest winds will lead to a 10 degree increase in temperatures and dew points.
1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Northwest flow associated with a ridging pattern continues today. The storms will dissipate or move southeast of the area in the evening with mild low temperatures in the low to mid 60s as continued southeast low level moisture advection continues. A surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest.
1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Another quiet start to the day with surface ridging across the region. Expect relatively similar conditions to yesterday, although a bit warmer as temperatures aloft have warmed a couple/few degrees. Overall consensus in the guidance is to to keep the warm sector precipitation free and instead focus any CI along the cold front and incoming mid level wave across central and northeast SD. Any tornado threat is much more conditional with fairly good curvature in the low level hodograph but also plenty of uncertainty/doubt about any storms being able to utilize that shear off of the cold front.
Conditions will be warmer on Thursday with highs in the mid 80s.
Upper air and satellite imagery depicts upper low center spinning over southern Canada north of Great Lakes. Short wave rotating around the low extends to the southwest, into central IA. A deep upper-level trough centered over Ontario will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. The Ontario upper trough will shift northeastward on Thursday, resulting in rising heights across the Midwest. A warm front will lift into Illinois Thursday night: however, strongest forcing associated with nocturnal low- level jet will remain well to the W/NW across Iowa.
Temperatures this afternoon are in the low to mid 80s.
Additionally, temperatures and dewpoints were raised slightly through the afternoon to depict a warmer trend being seen. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 83 68 86 68 / 40 30 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 84 66 86 67 / 20 20 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 66 85 67 / 20 10 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 82 61 84 65 / 20 20 10 20 10.
349 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A weak cold front will move southeast across NC Thursday.
Mid level flow will become zonal/westerly, which will in turn deepen a 996 mb leeside surface cyclone near Goodland by 7 pm (per 12z NAM).
405 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
Overnight temps will be a few degrees warmer than what we saw this morning, but still into the 60s for most locations.
Strong high pressure for hotter than normal high temperatures into this weekend. High pressure dominates with another 2 or 3 degrees of heating today and tomorrow. Surface dew points have crept into the lower 40s near the southern border as a weak shallow push of moisture spreads northward.
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Sierra and southern Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday as a weak trough moves through.
However, an upper level trough of low pressure will combine with daytime heating to bring scattered to isolated showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Flow is becoming more southwesterly as the trough is starting to move in. Tomorrow will be cooler, but it still looks like showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly from Harlowton to Sheridan and west, but areas east of there could still see some activity.
Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. For Thursday, we'll remain under cyclonic flow aloft, but the upper trough axis will shift to the east during the day. Sensible weather will feature mostly sunny skies with highs warming into the low-mid 80s. Issued at 305 PM Wed Jun 24 2020 By Thursday night, the synoptic setup will consist of a deep closed low over Quebec as subdued ridging over the central CONUS is bookended by troughing on each of our coasts.
High pressure will build to the south Fri night into Sat. Upper flow will transition from zonal to an upper ridge during the weekend, allowing for warmer temps and dry conditions. An upper low will transit into the Northern Rockies at this time, edging closer to the Northern Plains. The approach of an upper wave/500 mb trough by Tue could provide the de-stabilization/forcing necessary for organized strong to severe convection.
318 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Quiet weather tonight as weak high pressure moves East.
Reimer Upper ridging will linger into the first half of today, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 90s and RH's get down to the upper teens. However, warm and dry conditions will be short lived as a trough will swing through the area overnight, with a cold front ahead of this system moving through this evening. Troughing will persist through Thursday, allowing rain showers and weak thunderstorms to occur this evening and persist through Thursday across the area.
Expect some diurnal cu and warmer high temps into the 80s as 925 mb temps climb to 21-22C.
Strong high pressure for hotter than normal high temperatures into this weekend. High pressure will continue to dominate our weather in the short term. The ridge is going to dirty up a bit with a Great Basin trough leaving behind a weakness in the flow immediately upstream near Las Vegas and far western Arizona.
Later into the evening and overnight, the trough axis will shift east and instability will be reduced, allowing rain chances to quickly diminish.
Thursday will start unsettled as a vort max in the base on the longwave trof will be swinging through the area. This will help to keep temps down into the low to mid 80s most places, which is several degrees below normal.
410 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Upper level trough will continue to deepen over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with an associated stalled boundary from southeast Texas to the Arklatex.
Temperatures will cool down into the lower 70s tonight and highs are expected to be in the lower 80s to mid 80s.
517 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 An upper level trough drops through our area through Thursday.
Continued hot conditions for tomorrow, with slightly higher rain chances as winds start to turn to the SE with the ridge lifting northward. Light winds overnight will increase from the S/SW through the day tomorrow and a few storms will be possible with the highest chances at the inland and southern terminals. The ridge will be lifting north and westerly flow will be becoming SE over the next day or two with onshore flow near the coast in the afternoon.
Currently, a surface frontal boundary is located across southern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA) with upper-level troughing across the eastern U. With the placement of the trough, the CWA is within the right entrance region of a 50+ knot jet streak, which will help to provide upper-level divergence.
As showers from Williamson County to storms over Jackson County fizzle over the next hour or so, temperatures should fall into the low and mid 60s.
Just to our northwest, a surface cold front continues to drop south toward the area. With some uncertainty on the low clouds clearing, high temps may struggle to reach the l-m80s, but will stick close to this based on suggested blended guidance.
The high temperatures and the relatively dry air will create near critical fire conditions over the mountain valleys and adjacent plains, but winds will not be strong enough for a Red Flag Warning.
Quiet weather tonight as weak high pressure moves East.
A western Atlantic ridge axis extends across the Bahamas and across south-central Florida. This is combination with deep layer ridging overhead will continue to suppress rain chances through the next 24 hours. Overnight lows will struggle to fall into the lower 80s.
611 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
Showers and storms will likely linger overnight over interior se GA with approach of short wave trough aloft and increasing vertical wind shear.
Lee trough strengthens Thursday, resulting in an increase in south and southeasterly low level flow. Overnight temps will be a few degrees warmer than what we saw this morning, but still into the 60s for most locations.
Despite slightly cooler temperatures today, an extended stretch of hot, dry, and sunny weather will continue across interior northwest California through the end of the week. An approaching upper level trough has temporarily broken down the high pressure ridge which has been in place over the West Coast. Temperatures across much of the area were cooler than this time yesterday due to the decreasing thicknesses associated with the trough.
645 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 High pressure continues over the northwest half of Arkansas, with a stationary front over the southeast part of the state.
Further northwest a complex of storms is riding along the nose of a thermal ridge. This afternoon, low pressure and an associated cold front in south central Saskatchewan is forecast to move east to Manitoba by Thursday afternoon. The cold front will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms tonight and Thursday. On Thursday, expectations are thunderstorms will redevelop by mid afternoon along the cold front across eastern ND.
The upper trough that brought cooler temperatures with east side thunderstorms moves east with an upper build building into the forecast area tonight.
Upper level trough moving out of the region this evening. Trough and front brought breezy to windy conditions this afternoon. Upper ridge builds in Thursday with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds.
555 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Upper ridging continues across the northern Great Plains, with the main axis now crossing the CWA. A low amplitude trough is crossing the Pac NW into the northern Rockies and a series of waves are embedded within the WSW flow, crossing Idaho to Wyoming. As the upper flow across the CWA transitions into the WSW direction behind the ridge access, chances for storms will increase from west to east tonight through Thursday.
/issued 146 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020/ North to northwest flow aloft will continue tonight into tomorrow courtesy of a weak upper level ridge centered southwest of the CWA. This evening, a weak disturbance moving through the northeast portion of the ridge will help kick off convection in central and eastern NM. Tomorrow the upper level ridge will continue to flatten as a West Coast upper trough moves westward.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s. The Atlantic ridge axis remains across the south-central FL peninsula.
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A weak cold front will move southeast across NC Thursday.
High pressure will provide plenty of sunshine and light winds across central Illinois today, allowing afternoon highs to top out in the middle 80s. As the high shifts eastward, a developing warm front will lift into the region from the southwest tonight. S/SW winds gusting 20-25mph in the wake of the warm front will boost highs into the lower 90s, while peak afternoon heat index values reach 95-100 degrees.
On Friday, a small chance for thunderstorms will be in place during the day, with increasing chances later Friday night with a warm front stalled out north of the area. High pressure over the area today should keep conditions dry. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the low to middle 80s. Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure starts to move to the east. By Friday afternoon, a warm front to the north and plenty of moisture and instability across the area could allow for diurnal storms over central Indiana in the warm sector.