Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1218 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IDAHO INTO NRN UTAH WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S WEST TO LOWER 30S EAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SK. WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. COLD FRONT TRAILS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE REGION.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL LESSEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID LOWER MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTH AND THE NISH VALLEY WHERE CLEARING AND A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS. UPPER LOW ACROSS MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ADRIFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE MAIN POLAR JET HOLDS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS WYOMING ON TODAY. AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MODERATE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SOME COOLER AIR. OF MORE CONCERN IS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT FORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN WI THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM. CAM AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALIKE SHOW PRECIP BLOSSOMING ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK TO THE SW ACROSS CENTRAL MN. AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY OVER E TX AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NWD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT N INTO S TX.
A WARM FRONT IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AT THIS TIME. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BUT WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 45-55 MPH IN THESE AREAS. WISTER A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
As we get into the weekend period, the upper level low pressure system responsible for all this rain will finally approach the Ozarks from the south.
MAINLY ON THE HIGHER PASSES AND SLOPES. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO IN WNW FLOW. OVER NERN CO THERE WILL MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS HOWEVER CROSS- SECTIONS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO MAY ONLY SEE VIRGA OR A SPRINKLES LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY MID EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A DRIER AIRMASS DEVELOPING SO PCPN WILL END IN THE MTNS.
THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOWEST READINGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
309 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. DESPITE MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. LIMITING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP. UPPED AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE FARTHER WEST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND WARMER AT 850HPA.
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK. POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WELL. UPPER TROF WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ARE ALL COLLOCATED WITH THE CORE OF COOL AIR OVERHEAD.
328 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TX. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE AREAS WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 70S.
/ISSUED 1001 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016/ 00Z SNDG CONFIRMING SOLID RIDGE IN CONTROL WITH VERY STRONG INVERSION BASED AROUND 4800 FT WITH A CLOUD DECK THAT IS PROBABLY 200 FT DEEP AT MOST. REGARDLESS SCU WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND WITH TEMPS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL OR SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.
AVBL LL MOISTURE WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THU AND A RAIN FREE FORECAST WILL REMAIN AREA WIDE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
IT NOW APPEARS AREAS CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WILL BE WHERE THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS WIND UP OCCURRING.
/issued 316 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/ (Today and tonight) An upper level low currently over northwest Mexico will slowly track east southeast toward central Mexico by early Thursday. High resolution models indicate an increase in activity as an upper level disturbance rotates around the aforementioned upper level low and then moves across the region. A cold front will also move through the area today resulting in gusty north winds and cooler temperatures. Overnight we may see a lull in precipitation, especially across the northern counties, as the upper level low drifts east toward deep south Texas. The highest PoPs will be across the southern counties then decreasing as you head north into the Big Country.
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
251 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MEXICO WHILE A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
154 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION HALF OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST WITH THE NWRN MTNS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES AND THE VALLEYS SKIFF TO AN INCH ALONG WITH EITHER KEEPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS OR QUICKLY BRINGING THEM BACK IN. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS TO THE WEST.
WARMER BASED ON THICKNESS TRENDS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
1234 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH LESS CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
1039 AM MST WED MAR 9 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ALPENA MICHIGAN TO DES MOINES IOWA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
1003 AM MST WED MAR 9 2016 PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD INTO EASTERN OREGON ZONES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS. A WARM FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NE ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. THE SNOW WILL MELT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES WARMER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS NOSING INTO THE PLAINS.
UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST. AS THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT STILL HAS GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH UPPER LOW STILL OUT WEST. GENERALLY STAYED WARM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT (BUT COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT).
Meanwhile, anticipating the arrival of a moist warm front which will bring a good chance of rain to the central Cascades and Basin by early afternoon. Next system will be warm front that will push in from the southwest this afternoon. Southeast winds will steadily increase through the night with the higher gusts of 30kt across the KPUW-KGEG area toward 12z when the cold front pushes through the region.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGH VALLEYS NORTH OF THE EASTERN UINTAS AND THE CRAIG TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HEED WAY TO MUCH CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS WE START OFF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN WSW FLOW.
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BH GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND LOW TW VALUES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL ENSUE WITH WAA SPREADING OVER THE FA.
A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT IS PRODUCING A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FT). NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED -SHSN VCNTY KBZN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
I am somewhat skeptical of this development so far north of the upper low and the current convective zone.
Associated "cold" front (trough) passage will bring a northerly wind shift Thursday morning. In fact, high pressure ridging building into the plains from the Desert SW will yield strong height rises and warmer temperatures Thursday.
AREA 88-D IMAGES AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS STILL HOLDING FIRM INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
1215 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY.
Cold frontal boundary is currently situated near the KC metro, running southwest to northeast along a KCNU to KDVN line. The same change will be in place for Thursday as well, as surface ridging takes a firm grasp of the northern plains, and eventually the lower Missouri River Valley. Despite the surface ridging (which generally brings a cool down) temperatures on Thursday will be rather balmy with highs in the middle to upper 60s, with an outside look at lower 70s. By late in the week rain chances will return to most of the area, as the strong mid level trough remains cut off from the ambient mid level flow and eventually reenters the main flow. Once it reenters the mid level flow it will eject toward the northeast through ArkLaTex region and eventually into the lower Missouri River Valley.
WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
AROUND 7 TO 13 DEGREES WARMER. WARMUP CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA AREA FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER EAST.
Next system will be warm front that will push in from the southwest this afternoon. Southeast winds will steadily increase through the night with the higher gusts of 30kt across the KPUW-KGEG area toward 12z when the cold front pushes through the region.
Deep closed upper low over the Mexican Desert and strong East Coast ridge remain the main players in our weather, but the devil is in the details of the northern stream. Westerlies to our north have strengthened just enough to suppress that ridge and bend the tropical moisture feed eastward into parts of Kentucky. Another northern stream wave will further erode the ridge beginning Thursday morning, allowing precip to spread south and east into more of central Kentucky as the day progresses. Current forecast reflects MOS consensus, but leans toward the high end in the south and the low end in the north.
As, the upper low continues to move slowly east, our counties will be positioned under an upper level deformation zone.
EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE MAIN LARGE SCALE WX FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WX INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TX. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL HIGHS.
316 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTING REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING TODAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT DUE TO THIS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOWEST READINGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
318 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 PARTLY CLOUD SKIES REIGN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES MORE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S. MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY HOLD OFF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO HELPING FOCUS RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. BEING ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSED LOW OVR OLD MEXICO WILL FINALLY OPEN AND NEWD IN WKNG FASHION LTR SUN AHD OF UPSTREAM KICKER DRIVING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. AS COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH TONIGHT.
1258 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
An upper low continues to spin over Mexico early this morning with maybe a slight shift to the east expected through the day. At the surface, breezy north winds will develop across the FA through this morning with the passage of a cold front. Not expecting good CAA with the cold front however with widespread rain and cloud cover persisting through the day, below normal temperatures generally in the 50s can be expected.
311 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 A cold front southeast of the IL river and approaching I-55 at mid afternoon will reach near I-72 by sunset and pass southeast of I-70 overnight, getting southeast of Lawrence county late tonight. Still looks like a prolonged period of rain through the weekend, but again, rainfall amounts look to be on the lower side. By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be just north of the Ohio Valley, with a short wave trough axis in the eastern Plains.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL QUIET REGIME. BUT WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
Meanwhile, anticipating the arrival of a moist warm front which will bring a good chance of rain to the central Cascades and Basin by early afternoon. A warm front will form during the afternoon and light rain will begin first over the western TAF sites of KMWH and KEAT and then over the eastern TAF sites around 00Z.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GOLF COAST WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW PARKED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT ESPECIALLY WARM DUE TO THE 850MB RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION ALOFT. PERHAPS REACHING THE LOW 50S IN A FEW SPOTS. MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX. ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS HIGHEST SINCE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING.
1137 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS REACHED FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING AND THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN USHERING IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING.
WIDESPREAD ALTOSTRATUS ~15,000FT WAS STREAMING N FROM A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEX. THIS AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT: WITH THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING E TOWARD THE ERN RIO GRANDE ON THU THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST TX. NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK RIDGE EXTENDING FL TO THE MID-MS VALLEY THE SRN PLAINS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT N ACROSS CENTRAL & E TX.
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS SETUP IS PUMPING TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND START TO PUSH IT EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY ON THURSDAY.
With a surface boundary just to the north and west, plenty of deep moisture, and periodic impulses of upper level energy lifting northward across the region from the upper low over Old Mexico, most areas are going to see rain off and on this afternoon and tonight.
Deep layer ridging will remain in place over and just east of the local region. It will be quite warm with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE EAST COOLER WHILE CENTRAL AND NORTH- CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE. WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH LEADING TO A WARM-UP. WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BY SAT AFTERNOON.
319 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WARM AIR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM INTO THURSDAY.
WITH MIXING HOLDING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION MINIMUMS MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
344 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WARMER. AND CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
The showers will begin to exit the area from northwest to southeast tomorrow as an upper trough moves across the area.
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AS THE REGION IS SEEING WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE CLOSED LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE THE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF US INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALSO TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A SHARP TROUGH MOVING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT WARMER AS DRIER AIR KEEPS LOW CLOUDS AT BAY AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
252 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTH PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING A WARMER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING 50 DEGREES AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS BEEN BLOCKED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION DUE TO AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ALLOWING FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.