Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
647 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHWEST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGESTS BULK OF HEAVIER BANDED SNOW IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS REMAINED N-NW OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW WITH STRONG CAA RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECTED FRESH SNOW COVER AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 307 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND BRING MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED BUT WILL HELP TO USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS.
THE CLOUD COVER IS AFFECTING AREA TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY IF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
631 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO BUILD IN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
400 AM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
1248 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE TO JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE THE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP STRATOCU PRETTY THICK OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1201 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 921 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT HAS KEPT CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WHICH WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR LOCATED ACROSS GA/SC WESTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT AND LIKELY LOW VALUES OF THE DAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THIS WARMER AIR MOVES WESTWARD.
As the upper low over the southeast U. This essentially puts the mid-Mississippi Valley beneath a very weak ridge, leaving the FA almost totally devoid of any upper level dynamics.
622 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE OVER THE RIDGES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE RIDGES. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE RIDGES TO THE FAR WEST.
AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAGGING ALL OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND TOWARDS US START TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RAINS SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END TODAY AS THE ENERGY FROM THIS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID-STATE AND IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH EVEN SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL START TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
147 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
146 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT NE WINDS FAVORED MILDER THAN THE COOLER NAM MOS MINS.
DYNAMICAL LIFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION NEAR THE SOCAL COAST DRAWS UP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
305 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Early this morning a closed upper level low was digging southeast across central CA. A longer wave-length trough was located across the western US. A weak lead short wave trough was lifting northeast across western KS. Ahead of the minor upper level trough there was enough ascent for scattered showers across northwest and west central KS. As the minor H5 trough lifts northeast into NE any isolated showers or sprinkles across north central KS should come to an end. If the cloud cover lingers across the western counties, then highs may only reach the lower 60s.
400 AM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Storm moving into Central and Southern CA today will bring cooler weather, gradual weakening of winds, and diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms today.
331 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND WELL WEST INTO THE NORTHLAND KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT BEEN REAL THICK AS THEY FIRST MOVE IN AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HIGH WILL LOSE SOME ITS INFLUENCE TODAY AS IT DRIFTS EAST.
650 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED WEST OF MICHIGAN. MODEST SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS NOSED ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT RATHER UNUSUAL BLOCKING PATTERN ABOUT SET TO TRANSITION TO ONE MUCH MORE FAMILIAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT INITIAL UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE INTO SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCE CANADA BY LATER SUNDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP IN CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE OVER THE RIDGES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE RIDGES. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE RIDGES TO THE FAR WEST.
513 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND WITH SUPPORTING DYNAMICS FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
341 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ALOFT - A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC REACHED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LOW WAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER WITH A COMPACT TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD.
Southeast winds will continue today through tonight as lee troughing continues across eastern Colorado. An upper level low will spin over the Desert Southwest during the first part of the week then shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by mid week.
With this in mind and increased cloud cover from the approaching system, afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, generally in the 80 to 85 degree range.
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Another day of below normal temperatures will be noted across the region due to the continued influence of the cyclonic flow around the very slow moving southeast US upper low.
349 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA, OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
346 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 CONTINUED DRY & PLEASANT WX EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL. NEXT WEST COAST TROF. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION & MOVEMENT OF THE TROF BEYOND THURS. 47 LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BY TUES AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM (DEEPENING AROUND THE CALI BAJA) BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE FARTHERN EAST INTO THE GULF WITH A PERSISTENT STREAM OF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ Pleasant autumn weather will continue today as ridging continues to prevail at the surface and aloft. The future evolution of the upper low that will be moving out of the southwest U.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR/COOLER AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. HAVE GONE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT CENTRAL AND WEST. ON SUNDAY THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-WEEK AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 THE UA RIDGE HAS EXITED THE REGION. BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN NEARBY SFC LEE TROUGHING AND LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /70S/.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK. AND INTO THE LOWERS 60S ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
REMAINS DRY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY FILLS AND ABSORBS BACK INTO THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT A PAIR OF MID LEVEL WAVES EJECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SE CONUS TROUGH SATURDAY LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE THETA E GRADIENT AND WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. UPPER LEVEL JET IS TRANSITIONING TO WEST COAST TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGE AS THE STRONG BLOCKING QUEBEC HIGH AND ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM RELEASE EASTWARD.
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD IN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL JUST BE SITTING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CNM has the highest chances of experiencing storms but HOB, INK, and PEQ will also likely see some storms. /issued 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined shrtwv trof INVOF AZ/NM border with a mid level trof axis sw of srn Baja and remnants of Marty s of Baja's srn tip. Minor shrtwv trof moving thru the flow today and tonight will result in scattered SHRA/TSRA. Yesterday part of the challenge was identifying shrtwv trof/s moving thru the flow and is today as well. However there does look to be some consensus that a stronger shrtwv trof will move from nrn Mexico into the Trans Pecos Sunday, merging with the weakening shrtwv trof from AZ/NM.
305 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 STUBBORN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA-SOUTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS PRODUCING RECORD RAINFALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA. WHILE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW MOVES A BIT MORE EASTWARD AND LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
303 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Deep upper low currently centered over the southeast CONUS continues to funnel low/mid-level moisture northwestward into central Illinois this morning. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery shows a low overcast across the entire area, with the lowest clouds focused over the E/SE KILX CWA. Given some late day sunshine, high temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s along/south of I-70.
408 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THEREFORE BLENDED IN A 50 PERCENT MIX OF THE COOLER ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL BIAS CORRECTED VALUES TO TONE DOWN THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
ESPECIALLY BRIDGES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE MID 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
306 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A WEAK SSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER COLORADO WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD. AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.
COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE OVER THE RIDGES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE RIDGES. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE RIDGES TO THE FAR WEST.
329 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD. MODELS INDICATED THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW SETTLES OVER LOS ANGELES.
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY.
Winds aloft weaken as the influence of the ridge builds in from the west as the upper low works into northern Florida. There is still plenty of north-south oriented channeled vorticity at mid levels, but both high resolution and medium range model soundings show rapid mixing and drying of at the low and middle levels, especially to the east over Southwest Indiana and parts of the Pennyrile of West Kentucky. With an already mixed planetary boundary layer, an insolation should translate through the layer allow for at least a moderate rise in temperatures, with some greater subsidence west of the impressed inverted trough over Central Kentucky. Otherwise, tranquil weather will dominate through early in the week as ridging builds into the area.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY HOWEVER. SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION FIELD.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST SUNDAY AS WELL.
MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM THE PACIFIC IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF AN CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY SNEAK IN AND ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVERALL EVERYWHERE TO MOSTLY THE LOW 60S OTHER THAN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THAT MAY BREAK 70 IF GUIDANCE HOLDS TRUE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT FELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW 60S TONIGHT.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN TO CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY.
BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN DENSITY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY MOVES TO OUR EAST. THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW ON THE WEST COAST.
240 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 THE 07Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH FROM A LOW IN NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE HAVE THE NORTHERLY STREAM TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WE ARE IN EASTERLY FLOW WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. NOT A LOT CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OMEGA PLOTS NOT SHOWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF FORCING AND WITH COOLER AIRMASS. IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE AREA WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER TOMORROW BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS VERY COMPLEX FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LARGE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA. TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
254 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SWRN GA WHILE AT THE SFC AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM SE GA THRU ERN TN. FOR TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE SERN COASTLINE.
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Pleasant autumn weather will continue today as ridging continues to prevail at the surface and aloft. The future evolution of the upper low that will be moving out of the southwest U.
407 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FL HAS BEEN A DOMINATING INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER RECENTLY. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.
404 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN HERE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A TAD WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
321 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MADE A RETURN TO OUR REGION. THE SE COAST UPPER LOW WILL DEPART AND THE CA LOW IS FCST TO MOVE INTO W TX FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING MUCH TO OUR REGION.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MAINTAIN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF GRADUAL SHIFTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUT TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH RIDGING THIS WEEK. THE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MOVING CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BE DECREASING AND IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING EASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BRING DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO BROOKINGS TODAY AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST SIDE. THE RIDGE AT THE CENTER OF THE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK.
Cooler valley temps can be found immediately along the Divide, however, which will bring about a fairly chilly morning.
This rainfall is taking some attention away from a weak cold front that has also slid into the Permian Basin and is currently near the I-20 corridor. Air behind the front is about 10 degrees cooler than ahead so it will be felt as it moves through though it is really losing steam and may not make much more of a southward push before stalling and eventually lifting back to the north.
619 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.
IT ADDITION TO THE LOWER CLOUD COVER. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY ACROSS IOWA TODAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IS TEMPS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE MAIN THINKING ON THAT IS THAT THE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE STATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF SO WE SHOULD START THE DAY A LITTLE WARMER THAN WE DID YESTERDAY AND THE I AM COUNTING ON THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN A LITTLE SLOWER THUS ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE CLIMB IN TEMPS OFF THEIR LOWS THROUGH THE MORNING.
124 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
Locally, this will mean increased advection of warmer, moister air into our northwestern zones and wedging of cooler air into our eastern zones. Highs today will be cooler in south central Georgia, hovering around 70 at best, with low to mid 70s over the rest of the area.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA.
SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY APPROACH KTXK AND KSHV. LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MAY EXPAND WEST INTO PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES/PARISHES IN SRN AR/N CNTRL LA.
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.
219 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, AN IMPRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES.
424 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY.
355 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
132 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY DAWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING ALONG AN INVERTED TROF FROM ERN KY NORTH TO CENTRAL LAKE ERIE IS FCST BY LATEST HRRR TO MOVE WEST INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALONG ISENT SURFACE TO WANE OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE CENTROID JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY FILLS AND SAGS SWD AND SC COASTAL LOW/ASSOCD WITH SWRN GA MID LVL VORTEX WEAKENS AS CAT 4 JOAQUIN ACCELERATES NEWD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD UPSTREAM BEFORE A BROAD UPPER TROF GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROF.
UPPER LOW WAS DEEPENING AS IT SETTLED SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON.