Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1019 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Scattered to numerous rain showers will diminish during the overnight hours as a cold front exits the area. Much cooler and drier air will follow in behind this front later tonight into Thursday.
The persistence of the showers and thunderstorms for most of the day has kept instability on the low side. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will decrease from northwest to southeast tonight as a 850 mb cold front clears the area. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40s with perhaps a few upper 30s possible up towards Truman Lake. Despite a lot of sunshine (especially across central Missouri), high temperatures on Thursday will only warm into the lower to middle 60s.
616 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 Early afternoon objective surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from eastern SD into northwest KS. Latest higher-resolution forecasts /RAP-HRRR-HRRRX/ indicate temperatures will flirt with freezing, but may not get as cold as previously thought.
For Thursday night into next Wednesday, mainly zonal flow aloft will keep the area dry until Wednesday when the next upper level trough is forecast to bring increasing chances for rainfall. Lows will stay above freezing and warm from the 40s Thursday night, then into the 50s.
Surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to approach Southeast Texas tonight, stretching from the Big Bend into North Central Texas. /ISSUED / A warm and humid summer-like evening with dw pts in the lower 70s.
751 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2016 A cold front will move through overnight into early Thursday, bringing showers and cooler weather to the region. High pressure will build in providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Mostly clear skies will continue through Thursday night with weak high pressure over the area.
610 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 /00Z TAFS/ A cold front is moving south through the area this evening having already moved south of KABI and is about to move through KSJT. /issued 344 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016/ (Tonight and Thursday) As of 330 pm, a strong cold front was south of Abilene, and heading south through the Big Country at around 20 mph. Although much cooler temperatures will follow behind this front, cooling tonight will likely be moderated somewhat by the development of low clouds after midnight.
803 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Dry, mild weather will continue tonight, as high pressure slowly retreats off the coast. Showers are expected to cross the region Thursday, associated with a cold front.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather and no changes are planned for the evening update. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 50s north of I-10 to the lower to mid 60s south.
Otherwise, a cold front will slowly move south tonight and bring areas of MVFR conditions with showers and isolated thunderstorms. The front will switch winds to the northwest to northeast overnight, as cooler air filters into AR.
734 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Aviation A strong cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over Northwest Arkansas should continue to shift off to the east over the next few hours behind a cold front moving through the region. /Issued 311 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016/ A cold front currently extends from far northwestern Arkansas to south-central Oklahoma. Temperatures will be considerably cooler Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.
A dry deep layer airmass remains in place across our forecast area this evening on the base of zonal flow across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley and on the northern fringe of an upper level ridge of high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico. Low temperatures in the lower to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast and beaches look on track.
1037 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will remain in the forecast area through the overnight. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north behind the front over the weekend. The surface pressure ridge will remain in the forecast area through the overnight. Aloft, broad troughing will be over the area. A cold front just west of the Appalachian region Thursday morning will gradually push southeastward through the day and cross the forecast area Thursday night.
628 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 The main forecast issue in the short term will be the freezing temperatures that are expected across a vast majority of the region. Unprotected plants could be damaged or killed by these freezing temperatures.
756 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2016 Canadian high pressure over the area will weaken in advance of a dry cold front into the area late Thursday.
/issued 610 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ A cold front is moving south through the area this evening having already moved south of KABI and is about to move through KSJT. /issued 344 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016/ (Tonight and Thursday) As of 330 pm, a strong cold front was south of Abilene, and heading south through the Big Country at around 20 mph. Although much cooler temperatures will follow behind this front, cooling tonight will likely be moderated somewhat by the development of low clouds after midnight.
/issued 243 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016/ Vigorous cold front had cleared the forecast area as of 19z. Isentropic lift will increase ahead of an upper level trough tonight.
417 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2016 Dry weather and slightly cooler than normal temperatures can be expected over the central California interior through Thursday night.
745 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Showers on schedule just out ahead and behind the surface cold front which is now moving across far western zones. Cooler tonight with lows in the middle 30s to the middle 40s with highs Thursday in the chilly upper 40s to lower 50s.
An upper ridge will remain in place from the Desert SW into the Central and Southern Rockies. Highs today near previous forecast will range from the upper 80s to near 90 north central to the lower 90s to near 95 southwest. A subtle cold front will develop during the afternoon and become located from Ainsworth to Imperial by late afternoon. Instability should range from 1500-2500 j/kg, with the highest deep layer shear values near 30 kts. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast overnight, as lows drop to near 55 in the northwest Sandhills to the lower 60s and near 60 southeast.
By Tuesday, trough axis is still to our west, and not much forcing. The trough will start to move east towards the area late in the day and could bring some showers/storms in from the west late in the day.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms to start the week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week. Drier and warmer air aloft will limit thunderstorms to mainly the White Mountains again today. These conditions will also result in afternoon temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Upper air weather map analysis this morning shows a strong mid-level Bermuda ridge of high pressure extending west into the southeast US. A well defined mid- level trough axis off the western FL Panhandle was spinning northwest. In the lower levels of the atmosphere, ridge of high pressure was well established from the southeast US into the southwest Atlantic. With the deep layer ridge axis to the east, wind profiles with height show a well established south to southeast flow over the forecast area, which keeps Gulf moisture opened up and sufficient for scattered showers and storms today. Although the mid-level trough off the western FL Panhandle is forecast to deamplify as it moves west-northwest today, this feature also brings potential of enhanced ascent for storms.
A pretty narrow band of warm air advection/moisture return will set up across the eastern CWA ahead of the low pressure system. Kept the highest POPs across the eastern CWA this afternoon, but will have to monitor if POPs need to be pushed further west. The low pressure trough will remain over the eastern CWA through Tuesday, and an such, slight chance POPs also persist across the far eastern CWA Tuesday afternoon.
429 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2016 High pressure over the west will keep warm and dry conditions in place through most of the week.
/issued 441 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently stalled just south of West Central Texas. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to near 90 across the Big Country to the low to mid 80s across the rest of the area.
Weak high pressure will begin to build at the surface in the wake of the Tuesday night front. Despite this, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through mid-week as the next upper-level trough advances through.
/Issued 351 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ Tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue for the next several days as high pressure remains in control over the Panhandles.
Warm conditions will persist inland and in the hills through midweek while cooler conditions continue near the coast. Temperatures will cool region-wide late in the week in response to a deepening upper level trough off of the California Coast. The 3 am temperature in Livermore was 11 degrees cooler than at the same time yesterday while the dewpoint there was 9 degrees higher. Somewhat cooler temperatures are forecast during the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper low develops near the central California coast. The low is forecast to drift farther offshore by late in the week and perhaps draw some moisture westward across California. SFO Bridge Approach. Cooler and more moist conditions are expected in the coastal valleys and on the lower slopes below 1500 feet today.
/Issued 454 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016/ Pattern in short term period still controlled by SWly flow aloft with upper trough just west of MS valley states and upper high centered over Bermuda.
Temperatures will be comfortable today with highs ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s.
At mid morning, Mid Tn continued to be on the fringe of a strong Atlantic ridge, with an axis of deep moisture remaining to our west across the Ms Valley and up to the Great Lakes. Cold front remains parked just west & north of the Mississippi & Ohio Rivers with warm, moist air still advecting into Middle Tennessee.
Later this afternoon, some of the short term model guidance indicates a little convective development may be possible in the northeast zones during this afternoon as a weak embedded upper level impulse moves into the area riding on northwest flow aloft ahead of an advancing ridge. The upper ridge looks to move firmly across the Northern High Plains on Tuesday with warm and dry weather conditions prevailing. This will be short lived though as the ridge quickly pushes downstream of the CWA and a new trough begins to approach from Canada.
Next upper level trough over the gulf of AK will approach the area on 12Z Thu.
A vigorous piece of vorticity will move overhead later today, while a weak cold front drops south across the plains through the late morning.
Further west, an abundance of sunshine should allow temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s. A pretty narrow band of warm air advection/moisture return will set up across the eastern CWA ahead of the low pressure system. Kept the highest POPs across the eastern CWA this afternoon, but will have to monitor if POPs need to be pushed further west. The low pressure trough will remain over the eastern CWA through Tuesday, and an such, slight chance POPs also persist across the far eastern CWA Tuesday afternoon.
With some clearing/drying in the northwest, lows could actually get in the lower 60s tonight/Tuesday night.
A weak ridge of high pressure will crest across the area late today and tonight before sliding offshore. Low pressure will track east from the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday pulling a warm front northward into the area. Showers and Thunderstorms will spread northward into the area during Tuesday then continue Tuesday night as the low crosses the region.
720 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Bermuda high pressure will extend into the Carolinas and Virginia through Tuesday.
A deep trough over NW TX has all the remnant tropical moisture penned up from South TX where the old low is barely seen on water vapor, then right across the ArkLaTex and into the US midwestern states. /issued 238 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ Remnants of our upper low has now been absorbed well to our north northeast into the Ohio Valley. This feature will become a little more diffuse as we move into the afternoon hours but strong PVA signal downstream of the longwave trough to our northwest along with slight heating and abundant moisture should result in additional convective development today.
Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin and producing clear skies and light winds across the forecast area.
/issued 449 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016/ A ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue southeasterly flow through mid week. A broad ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to bring deep east southeast flow and typical summer like weather to southern Florida today. Moisture in the lower and mid levels should increase by afternoon with the GFS forecast PWAT values pushing nearly 2.
/Issued 330 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ Upper low pressure system over eastern NM this morning will lift east/northeast across MO by Tuesday. It may be a good radiational cooling night on Tuesday morning so we favored the cooler guidance temps at sites where clearing was more likely.
543 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2016 High pressure aloft will give way to low pressure aloft midweek and likely persist into the weekend.
Latest radars as of 1115 AM depicted a few thunderstorms formed in Grant county north of Medford close the the mid/upper low. /issued 338 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ S/WV trough will progress eastward over the region today. With moisture lacking in the lower levels, we anticipate the virga continuing through early afternoon before mid-level cooling shifts north and east of CWA.
546 AM MDT MON AUG 15 2016 The forecast concern in the short term period is the possibility of isolated thunderstorms each evening clipping the western and northern sections of the forecast area as they lift off the Rockies during the afternoon and traverse the high plains during the evening. West northwest flow aloft brings a short wave trough across the Central High Plains region this evening. Even though mostly dry conditions are expected, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the high terrain each afternoon and lift out across the northern and central high plains each evening. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
1003 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Offshore high pressure/inland trough pattern will continue over the area through the middle of the week.
A weak upper level trough will bisect the area from northeast to southwest today. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue primarily across southeast counties this afternoon to the east of the trough axis where ascent is maximized. /issued 441 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently stalled just south of West Central Texas. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to near 90 across the Big Country to the low to mid 80s across the rest of the area.
910 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2016 High pressure aloft will give way to low pressure aloft midweek, which will likely persist into the weekend.
Early morning temperatures are in the low to middle 70s under cloudy skies. Morning lows are expected to be in the low to middle 70s. As a result Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than the remainder of the Midsouth. A weak positively tilted trough over the Central Plains and associated surface front will shift slowly to the East tomorrow through midweek.
631 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016 Well-advertised low pressure center cross western Arkansas this morning will continue lifting to the northeast today as a large scale trough slides east from the Great Plains. Temps today should top out a few degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to a healthy cirrostratus canopy aloft.
844 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 High pressure will remain to the Northeast Today, with a resultant onshore flow. Highs in the lower to middle 90s can be expected, except upper 80s along the coast.
Mid & high clouds will be on the increase as well today, but mixing should be sufficient to yield near-normal highs in the lower 80s.
Unsettled flow looks to continue into Tuesday, although heights build slightly over the region as a ridge axis shifts east over the Northern Rockies. Best chance for convection is over the higher terrain.
Temps will range from around 80 across Northeast Arkansas to the lower 90s across parts of Northeast Mississippi where some sun is expected. Early morning temperatures are in the low to middle 70s under cloudy skies. Morning lows are expected to be in the low to middle 70s. As a result Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than the remainder of the Midsouth. A weak positively tilted trough over the Central Plains and associated surface front will shift slowly to the East tomorrow through midweek.
After this system exits late morning region will be under a mid level ridge through tonight with mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will begin to build at the surface in the wake of the Tuesday night front. Despite this, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through mid-week as the next upper-level trough advances through.
/issued 338 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ S/WV trough will progress eastward over the region today. With moisture lacking in the lower levels, we anticipate the virga continuing through early afternoon before mid-level cooling shifts north and east of CWA.
A relatively flat upper level ridge remains situated over the forecast area this morning. A few of the normally hotter locations in the lower Columbia Basin and Snake River Gorge may reach 100 today.
Deep layer ridging will remain over the western Atlantic into the southeast U. With more sunshine to start the day today temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. For tonight the lows will be near normal and mostly in the 70s with highs on Tuesday from near 90 to the lower 90s thanks to some additional clouds.
High pressure ridge aloft remains along the West coast with a Northwest flow aloft over Colorado.
Clouds should generally diminish through the day as the base of the upper level trough continues to move east. Lows tonight are expected to cool to the lower 60s.
Dry air has moved into the area as high pressure builds in. High pressure is building aloft over Central and Southwest Montana.
5" as a mid level trough sits just west of the area. Low lvl convergence to the east of this trough and along the coast will remain the focus for shower and thunderstorm development today. with only a slight warm up on Tuesday into the lower 90s.
73 (Issued 245 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016) Center of upper low is now over the nrn TX panhandle while a stationary front extended from ern TX to the Great Lakes, not much change from last night position. Otherwise the Atlantic upper ridge will keep pcpn across the cwa today/tonight on the low side, but not zero. It will still be on the hot side today with highs mainly in the lower 90s and mrng lows on Tuesday in the lower 70s. Tuesday should be similar to today with low chc pops and highs temps arnd 90 as the upper ridge still keeps the main pcpn west of the TN valley.
An elongated area of low pressure is beginning to consolidate over Missouri as suggested by model guidance, and a circulation has started to appear in radar returns. The heaviest rainfall will fall east of the low track, which trends and forecast guidance suggest should be east of the I-55 corridor. A tropical moisture plume, strong isentropic upglide, and favorable jet forcing all support periods of heavy rainfall east of the low today, but a faster forward speed of the low will quickly taper off the heavy rainfall threat tonight over all but our far southeast counties.
Weak short wave ridging was over the Northland this morning ahead of a trough moving through the Northern Plains. There will be ongoing thunderstorms Tuesday night as the cold front moves through the Northland.
1109 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Partly cloudy skies, mainly over the Lower Keys, were observed this morning. Tomorrow morning, the atmospheric conditions in the lower levels will return to "normal" for this time of the year, where we can expect showers and thunderstorms to cruise over our waters. However, Sand Key Light remains in the border line and operators of small craft are advised to exercise caution across the western Straits and Hawk Channel waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
Cumulus cloud streets are developing across the area this morning in southerly flow around the western side of a deep layer ridge over the Atlantic. Convection is expected to be more isolated in nature for east-central and northeast Central Alabama, due to dewpoints mixing out into the upper 60s and large-scale subsidence due to the ridge. With pops on the low side today, mentioned some cumulus in the TAFs but did not mention SHRA or TSRA in at this time as coverage may be spotty during the afternoon in the prime heat of the day. Alabama will be on the western periphery of an upper level ridge for several days. But that ridge will become more west/east oriented and weaken by the end of the week.
An area of low pressure will move into the Great Lakes area. trended High temps 1-3 degrees cooler than the previous forecast.
(Issued 245 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016) Center of upper low is now over the nrn TX panhandle while a stationary front extended from ern TX to the Great Lakes, not much change from last night position. Otherwise the Atlantic upper ridge will keep pcpn across the cwa today/tonight on the low side, but not zero. It will still be on the hot side today with highs mainly in the lower 90s and mrng lows on Tuesday in the lower 70s. Tuesday should be similar to today with low chc pops and highs temps arnd 90 as the upper ridge still keeps the main pcpn west of the TN valley.
Alabama will be on the western periphery of an upper level ridge for several days. But that ridge will become more west/east oriented and weaken by the end of the week. With pops on the low side today, mentioned some cumulus in the TAFs but did not mention SHRA or TSRA in at this time as coverage may be spotty during the afternoon in the prime heat of the day.
947 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Cold front nearly stationary across Western Ohio, as high pressure lingers off East Coast. Cluster of shra/tsra moving thru SE OH associated with a ripple on the peripheral of the ridge. Surface cold front remains nearly stationary across western Ohio this morning as high pressure is still entrenched to our east.
High pressure will move in Tuesday and keep the weather mild and dry.
/issued 238 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ Remnants of our upper low has now been absorbed well to our north northeast into the Ohio Valley. This feature will become a little more diffuse as we move into the afternoon hours but strong PVA signal downstream of the longwave trough to our northwest along with slight heating and abundant moisture should result in additional convective development today.
This shud continue as the low moves newd thru the region. Began a rapid warm-up on Tues as mdls progd the thermal ridge pushing into nrn portions of the CWA. This trend continues into Wed and have trended aoa the warmer guidance.
/issued 212 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/ Anemic northwest flow aloft will continue to support drier and cooler air today and tonight, though cloud cover that kept Sundays highs at bay will push east and allow for a little more warming but still remain cooler than normal for mid-August.