Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad upper trough over the eastern United States will produce one more day of below normal temperatures across Central Alabama. Highs today will be several degrees warmer than yesterday, but still about 10 degrees below average for mid October. However, most areas will remain above freezing with lows in the middle to upper 30s. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to middle 70s.
1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Dry and pleasant weather will prevail the next 24 hours, as weak ridging aloft develops over the area into Friday. Skies will be mostly sunny today, with light winds and afternoon highs mainly in the lower 80s.
Still expecting one more night with lows in the 30s but temps should mainly stay above freezing.
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue through the end of the week due to high pressure over the area. Expect temperatures to fall to below normal by the weekend as a trough of low pressure brings cooler air and light precipitation to the area. Blocking High pattern continues to provide the region with sunny skies and warm temperatures. With the high in place over the west, winds remain light as the surface pressure gradient from KSFO to KLAS has been light and has not varied far from 1 or 2 mbs. Yet, a change in the weather pattern is approaching the region as much cooler temperatures and a possibility precipitation may enter the Central California Interior this weekend.
The trend for this period is initially for warmer temperatures ahead of a low pressure system producing rain and possibly a mix of light rain and snow. Cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the system and will persist through the end of the period.
309 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 High pressure builds in on Friday, bringing above average warmth lasting through the weekend. Clouds are in the process of retreating to the north as high pressure strengthens on the east coast tonight into Friday. Warmer air comes in from the west as the upper level trough weakens and moves east of our region. Warmer air at 850mb will shut off the lake effect ending the clouds east and northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario into tonight. Friday night will be warmer with low mostly in the 30s. High pressure will be in control through at least the first half of the weekend.
Slightly warmer temperatures Friday. The upper level trough will slide east, allowing higher heights aloft to build in from the southwest, thus warmer temperatures each day. Some locations overnight will be near or below freezing again with good boundary layer decoupling in place due to high pressure and calming winds.
230 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 As the mid/upper trough over the Northeast lifts north and eastward away from the area, mid/upper ridging has developed upstream over the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures. Light southerly winds will become established tonight with seasonable lows in the low to mid 40s anticipated for most areas.
(This evening through Friday) The deep trough that has been over the eastern US will continue to move to the east through the short term. A low pressure system developing off the east coast along with high pressure developing in the Gulf will allow for low and mid level flow will remain out of the northwest through the afternoon. warmer and more moist air will slowly advect into the state. high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
(through Tonight) A high pressure ridge will stretch northeast to southwest across the eastern US, with axis located just to the northwest of forecast area. An inverted trough of low pressure will be located to the southeast. A few clouds will wrap around the trough, providing a few clouds over southeastern counties, otherwise a clear and dry night is forecast.
These are up from lows that ranged from the mid 20s to mid 30s (with most spots at or below freezing earlier this morning). Highs temperature later this afternoon should rise into the lower 60s. This warmer flow and an overall moderating atmosphere should make for a not as cold night, with lows in the mid/upper 30s. Since much of the area has already had significant frost and/or freezing temperatures, a Frost Advisory will not be neccesary.
This will help temperatures and relative humidity to continue to rise on Friday, with the lows only dipping into the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s on Friday morning before warming up into the mid to upper 80s by the afternoon, which is actually near normal for this time of year.
Temperatures have warmed well past freezing at this time and the area will then warm into the upper 50s and low 60s. Short term forecast is otherwise still on track with quiet and high pressure driven conditions prevailing.
(This evening through Friday) Weak upper level ridging will result in above normal temperatures across West Central Texas on Friday. A lee trough will develop across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, resulting in an increased pressure gradient across the forecast area.
Highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday with mid 50s to mid 60s expected. High pressure centers over the Southern Appalachians tonight with light southerly winds and a mostly clear sky across Middle Tennessee. Some patchy frost will be possible across eastern portions of the forecast area within sheltered valleys along the Cumberland Plateau, but upper ridging and warmer temperatures arriving from the west will begin a warming trend. (Friday Night through next Thursday) The warming trends continues through the weekend with temperatures about 10 to 14 degrees above normal with dry weather beneath the upper ridge.
At the surface, a cold front will extend from north central North Dakota to southwest South Dakota this evening, then will track eastward, exiting the CWA to the east by sunrise Friday. High pressure will settle in over the region Friday morning. Winds will be light and variable in the morning, then will shift back to a southerly direction in the afternoon as the high gets pushed to the east by an approaching low pressure system. The low will become elongated from west to east Friday night.
Temperatures across the local area are also in the lower to mid 60s. The deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS will shift over the east coast and weaken through late week, with upper ridging moving over the Deep South on Friday.
159 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Current 500mb analysis shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region with northerly flow over the High Plains. As the trough continues to move off towards the east, we fall under northwesterly flow aloft this afternoon and temperatures climb into the mid-70s to low-80s. Into Friday, zonal flow takes over as the upper-level ridge breaks down with a passing trough to our north through Canada and another developing over the Pacific Northwest early in the weekend.
A dry layer in the low, to mid level along with lack of column- instability will inhibit any pcpn with the disturbance. Temperature will remain about 10 degrees below average given the cool airmass/upr troughing. Cloud cover will diminish tonight as the disturbance exits and as the upr trough begings to fill. Lows for most areas look to be a few degrees above this mornings freezing temperature readings. A progression of warmer days is in store for the weekend as the upper-level low that brought cooler weather to the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains finally lifts off to the northeast and we transition into a pattern that will be characterized by troughing across the western CONUS and ridging across the east. By Friday, southwest winds in the lower troposphere will ramp up, first with a trough lifting across the Upper-Midwest.
This afternoon: Temperatures are gradually warming through the 60s under near full sunshine, only a few cirrus clouds arriving from the west associated with an approaching upper trough. Tonight: As the upper trough crosses the region overnight some scattered cirrus will cross the forecast area but it is expected to be thin enough and exit the area soon enough to not have too much impact on overnight lows. Would not be surprised to see some outlying areas fall into the lower 30s. A continued warming trend and increasing ridging aloft.
Unlike last night, winds have largely dropped off across the area, allowing for more widespread sub-freezing temperatures. Will likely see a slight uptick of high clouds through the afternoon hours, but still expect high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With WAA kicking up later today and continuing tonight, low temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer, in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance High pressure over the Gulf Coast states today will set up across the Atlantic Coast down to the Gulf Coast by Friday. Given the degree of dry air, and the overall warmer than guidance bias for high temperatures in this drought regime, we are above guidance today and at or above for Friday. Southerly flow across the PAH forecast area will be bringing in warmer and more humid air.
High pressure will continue to bring dry weather and mild temperatures to Arizona through Friday.
Temperatures are currently in the high 40s-mid 50s and expected to peak this afternoon in the upper 60s. A longwave trough will persist over Georgia.
Aloft, broad closed area of low pressure over the Northeast and associated trough extending south should continue to lift north the rest of today and tomorrow. At the surface, a strong high pressure continues to push south over the region and it should dominate the weather for the next few days. In terms of temperatures, pleasant afternoon as temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 70s across the region. Highs for tomorrow are forecast to be in the 70s as well, with overnight lows in the lower 40s north to the mid 50s south.
326 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (Rest of today through Friday) South Floridian fall has begun! The cooler, dry Canadaian air made it's presence felt when we experienced our coolest morning lows since spring. With some break in the cloud coverage, afternoon highs are warming and will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Tomorrow, the upper level trough will shift further eastward and over southwestern Atlantic waters. On the backside of the low, drier air will continue to funnel into the region. However, once again, residual moisture in the lower portions of the boundary layer along the east coast metro areas may still result in the potential of isolated to scattered showers. High temperatures will trend warmer with afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
(Through Friday) Upper level troughing gets nudged east due to upper level ridging building into the region. Come tomorrow, high temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 70s.
155 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 High pressure will cross the region through Friday with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures.
After another chilly start with lows ranging from the mid 20s to 33/34 near large bodies of water and in urban areas, 2 PM temperatures across the area have risen into the lower 60s. With dewpoints in the low/mid 20s degrees, relative humidity values likewise have lowered into the low/mid 20s percent range, resulting in near critical fire weather concerns. The aformentioned NW flow aloft was being produced by an area of low pressure that has been located between the Hudson Bay and Great lakes for much of the week. This will result in more troughing forming to our west, and the eastern Canadian low weakening as it moves across the Davis Strait. Given that we've had widespread freezing conditions the last few days, we will hold off on a Frost Advisory for those normally colder spots this issuance.
A freeze warning remains in effect for tonight as we still expect sub freezing temperatures to be possible in most of the CWA. Friday's afternoon highs will be in the low 70s CWA wide bringing an end to "False Fall.
248 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Significantly warmer weather is on tap through the weekend, with highs expected in the 70s the next few days.
The dry air and warmer temps could lead to some fire weather danger this afternoon, especially after the hard freeze of the last couple of mornings has led to already dry fuels becoming more dormant.
249 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 For tonight, the upper level trough will begin to shift east out of our area. In response to this ridge, return flow will begin to build over our region. Areas east of the I-55 corridor could see morning lows dipping in the low 40s retaining a small portion of the cold airmass from the previous day. Highs will peak in the low 80s by the afternoon.
(This afternoon through Friday night) A large upper level trough continues to dominate the eastern half of the country with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the western edge of the trough. Upper ridging will begin developing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Friday but the ridge will be flattened a bit by a broad, upper trough moving over the Northern and Central Plains.
A cold front will approach the region late tonight. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to middle 30s at most locations, with some upper 30s and lower 40s near the lakeshore. the cold front will weaken as it pushes into the forecast area.
1110 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 The main theme for the rest of the week into the weekend will be warming temperatures as the trough responsible for the recent cold snap pulls north and east out of the area. Bumped up sky cover for the early aftn, but kept the idea of less clouds in the SE as mid-level mstr over central mtns is still progged to move to the NE more so than E or SE as the trough to our west digs. Building high pressure will result in diminishing winds tonight as well as skies clearing by daybreak.
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Near-freezing temperatures are possible tonight, before a ridge builds in tomorrow, bringing warmer and drier weather into the weekend. This will likely be the last influence of the persistent eastern trough that has brought seasonably cold temperatures and precipitation for most of the week. A progression of warmer days is in store for the weekend as the upper-level low that brought cooler weather to the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains finally lifts off to the northeast and we transition into a pattern that will be characterized by troughing across the western CONUS and ridging across the east. By Friday, southwest winds in the lower troposphere will ramp up, first with a trough lifting across the Upper-Midwest.
143 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (Today through Friday) As the apex of the upper trough that brought this weeks cold front starts to slide east, an upper level ridge will move in behind it. Temps will start to respond to this today, with highs moderating into the low 70s.
(Today through Friday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 The upper level ridge will start to break down today, leading to temporary zonal flow Friday.
High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley through the weekend, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures. Building cloud cover this afternoon will inhibit any increase in max temperatures, which are not subject to a change for this forecast issuance and should keep runaway lower humidity at bay with the current forecast being the low end minimum. A mid level trough axis will rotate down across the area through this afternoon. On the backside of the trough, mid level ridging will build into the area tonight into Friday.
1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Much of the region at 220 AM was running quite a bit warmer than 24 hours ago with Memphis leading the pack at +24 degrees thanks to steady westerly winds. Tonight, lee troughing emerges to our north underneath deeper westerly flow.
247 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2022 A transition to a cooler and more active pattern is underway. This will initiate the transition to a cooler pattern across the region.
1202 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Key Messages: - Return to seasonal temperatures today, warmer this weekend - Two model solutions remain for late-weekend system WARMING UP INTO THE WEEKEND: The forecast remains on track for warm air advection to aid in the return of seasonable temperatures today.
Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal as the troughing draped across the eastern CONUS progresses further eastward.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) After the last of our three-day freezes this morning, much warmer this afternoon with current temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Warmer temps, very low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s, gusty westerly winds and our ongoing drought are resulting in high fire danger across the region this afternoon. High fire danger is expected again tomorrow as temperatures continue to significantly warm up into the 60s/70s and low level moisture remains on the low side.
1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Today and Tonight: Another cold start with near record lows around freezing and areas of frost is expected this morning. Clear skies and a near calm wind has allowed temperatures to drop to freezing at several locations and temperatures will drop several more degrees before rebounding under full insolation.
343 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (Issued 343 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022) Tonight through Friday night: A quick-moving upper level trough will swing across southern canada tonight through Friday. More high clouds are expected Friday night, which will allow temperatures to remain mild in the lower to mid 40s despite the lighter winds.
The upper level pattern is relatively zonal while a trough builds in the Northwest CONUS and slowly makes it way towards the area.
Tomorrow, clear skies will continue under the influence of dry high pressure, and winds will toggle more NE by afternoon.
Tonight will be a few degrees warmer, but still colder than normal.
706 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 As the mid/upper trough over the Northeast lifts north and eastward away from the area, mid/upper ridging has developed upstream over the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures. Light southerly winds will become established tonight with seasonable lows in the low to mid 40s anticipated for most areas.
610 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (This afternoon through Friday Night) After the last of our three-day freezes this morning, much warmer this afternoon with current temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Warmer temps, very low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s, gusty westerly winds and our ongoing drought are resulting in high fire danger across the region this afternoon. High fire danger is expected again tomorrow as temperatures continue to significantly warm up into the 60s/70s and low level moisture remains on the low side.
435 PM PDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Updated for air quality section Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue through the end of the week due to high pressure over the area. Expect temperatures to fall to below normal by the weekend as a trough of low pressure brings cooler air and light precipitation to the area. Blocking High pattern continues to provide the region with sunny skies and warm temperatures. With the high in place over the west, winds remain light as the surface pressure gradient from KSFO to KLAS has been light and has not varied far from 1 or 2 mbs. Yet, a change in the weather pattern is approaching the region as much cooler temperatures and a possibility precipitation may enter the Central California Interior this weekend.
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 In the wake of an upper level trough of low pressure, high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley through the weekend.
706 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (Through Friday) Upper level troughing gets nudged east due to upper level ridging building into the region. Come tomorrow, high temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 70s.
Anderson (Issued 343 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022) Tonight through Friday night: A quick-moving upper level trough will swing across southern canada tonight through Friday. More high clouds are expected Friday night, which will allow temperatures to remain mild in the lower to mid 40s despite the lighter winds.
Confidence in the upcoming pattern change remains high, and weâre already seeing some of the changes ahead of the trough with an increase in cloud cover and even some rain being reported in northern Washington. A cold front is expected on Friday causing lowering snow levels and increased winds.
(Tonight through Friday) Large, sprawling trough was spatially dominant east of the Rockies.
613 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (This evening through Friday) Weak upper level ridging will result in above normal temperatures across West Central Texas on Friday. A lee trough will develop across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, resulting in an increased pressure gradient across the forecast area.
1006 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Cape profilers show a north wind flow in the low levels with sharply veering flow around 4000 ft out of the S/SW.
Strong warm advection and a warm front will set the stage for above normal temperatures and our next chances for precipitation as a strong upper level trough looms in the rockies.
For Friday, clear skies will continue under the influence of dry high pressure.
Would not be surprised to see some outlying areas fall into the lower 30s briefly before the sun rises. A continued warming trend and increasing ridging aloft.
Weak cold front continues to advance through the forecast area this evening, which will mainly introduce some cloud cover and cause temperatures to drop a few degrees for Friday.
550 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Aviation Section Updated A transition to a cooler and more active pattern is underway. This will initiate the transition to a cooler pattern across the region.
927 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Forecast is on track this evening with overnight lows not quite as cool as this morning's, averaging about 3-5 degrees warmer. Temperatures will rebound into the low 70s at the coast and the mid 70s inland, still below average by about 5 degrees for this time of year. (through Tonight) A high pressure ridge will stretch northeast to southwest across the eastern US, with axis located just to the northwest of forecast area. An inverted trough of low pressure will be located to the southeast. A few clouds will wrap around the trough, providing a few clouds over southeastern counties, otherwise a clear and dry night is forecast.
607 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Significantly warmer weather is on tap through the weekend, with highs expected in the 70s the next few days.
705 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 For tonight, the upper level trough will begin to shift east out of our area. In response to this ridge, return flow will begin to build over our region. Areas east of the I-55 corridor could see morning lows dipping in the low 40s retaining a small portion of the cold airmass from the previous day. Highs will peak in the low 80s by the afternoon.
838 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Another tranquil evening is on tap this evening, albeit a bit warmer.
642 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Near-freezing temperatures are possible tonight, before a ridge builds in tomorrow, bringing warmer and drier weather into the weekend. This will likely be the last influence of the persistent eastern trough that has brought seasonably cold temperatures and precipitation for most of the week. A progression of warmer days is in store for the weekend as the upper-level low that brought cooler weather to the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains finally lifts off to the northeast and we transition into a pattern that will be characterized by troughing across the western CONUS and ridging across the east. By Friday, southwest winds in the lower troposphere will ramp up, first with a trough lifting across the Upper-Midwest.
A cold front will be nearing from the northwest during the day on Friday.