Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Conditions tonight are a bit warmer than last night with most interior valleys in the mid 40s. Models are in very good agreement that upper level ridging will continue to build over the area through the weekend. Conditions in the interior look to be mostly clear and warm with high temperatures reaching the low 70's. Warmer air aloft should aid in the formation of a weak coastal inversion, bringing a triumphant return to coastal stratus. Low temperatures for the interior generally look to remain above freezing, but as conditions dry into this weekend, some patchy frost will become more likely. Even so, NBM guidance generally has less than a 10% chance of freezing temperatures. Model clusters are in good agreement that ridging will continue at least through the weekend.
Expect warmer high temperatures today and tomorrow with winds from the northeast. High pressure will continue to build with temperatures increasing to 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the weekend accompanied by very little wind.
Front itself will follow suit, with cooler air moving in behind it. Friday night will be colder, with clouds clearing out, winds diminishing and high pressure moving in.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Latest surface analysis shows a cold front making its way into the northeastern zones this morning, on the backside of an upper-level trough approaching the MS Valley. Unfortunately, a secondary front is set to backdoor into the area Friday, for even cooler highs, mainly over the northeast zones.
Otherwise, skies are clear except for a few high clouds spilling through the building ridge. Current temperatures are running a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago through much of the Central Valley where readings are in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A cold front is currently moving into central Arkansas. As this cold front continues to move east this morning through the Mid-South, showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread east across the remainder of the region. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. The cold front will be across east Tennessee this evening so all of the rain should have exited the region by then. Cooler air will start to move into the region tonight with lows Friday morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A second cold front will move into the Mid-South on Friday. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Friday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The second cold front will be exiting the region by Friday night with more dry weather expected.
Surface observations show a pre-frontal trough and cold front moving southward across central Texas early this morning. For the late morning and afternoon hours, dry weather, cooler temperatures and gusty north winds are in store. Another shot of cooler air will move into the region beginning early Friday afternoon across the Hill Country.
Gusty winds to continue today while a light wintry mix remains Light rain showers are possible today on the backside of a low pressure system across mainly the NE zones. Cold temperatures at the surface and aloft in the NE zones will mean snow, at least initially, as a warm front approaches. In between, cold temperatures as the surface with warming temperatures aloft support a wintry mix with light freezing rain also possible.
While temperatures tonight suggest precipitation will start out as snow, cross sections show moisture to be concentrated lower in the atmosphere, in a layer that is warmer than the temperatures conducive to snow formation. The result will be a good chance for freezing rain. Areas of concern for freezing rain this morning will be Highway 12 from about Lowell, ID east to the Lolo Pass summit, the Camas Prairie, Lookout Pass, Lost Trail Pass, and Highway 93 through the Bitterroot Valley. Moisture could remain shallow enough to produce freezing rain again on Friday morning where surface temperatures are able to drop below freezing on Friday night.
546 AM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 A cold front will move through the area today bringing rain and windy conditions. A warm front is currently located just south of the area. Expect another 10 to 15 degrees of warming today before much colder air arrives behind the cold front. Ahead of this cold front, rain will start moving in from the west shortly after sunrise. It will then dry out quickly behind the front this evening, and winds will come down but remain breezy with the upper low just moving into Wisconsin. As mentioned above, much colder air will follow the cold front as the upper low rotates through the Great Lakes.
An upper low over the Midwest on Thursday will shift eastward into the Great Lakes region on Friday. This system will slowly bring a weak cold front through South Texas today; with the boundary entering the northern counties mid to late morning, then the majority of South Texas in wake of the front by the overnight hours tonight. Highs won't feel that relieving, ranging from the low to mid 80s since CAA is weak and skies become clear allowing for that glorious sun to shine brightly through the afternoon.
Cold front currently located from north central into southwest Arkansas will continue to move through the region. Front itself will follow suit, with cooler air moving in behind it. Friday night will be colder, with clouds clearing out, winds diminishing and high pressure moving in.
427 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 An upper level low pressure area dropping in from Canada this morning along with an upper level low pressure trough over the northern plains will combine into one large closed upper level low pressure circulation to our east through tonight. As a result, at the surface a low pressure area in southeast Minnesota this morning will deepen and make a large loop around this system going north then west and then south before it weakens and moves east on Friday. The Sisseton Hills enhancement with northwest winds looks to continue to bring the highest snowfall amounts from 2 to 6 inches.
Highs today will range from the lower to mid 50s along I-70 to the upper 50s to near 60 along the Oklahoma border southeast of Dodge City. Temperatures will likely be a little cooler as the low level flow becomes more northerly instead of northwesterly, leading to less of a downslope component.
A weak disturbance embedded in northwesterly flow associated with building high pressure will bring the threat of precipitation to portions of northern Utah today. High pressure will continue to build into the region through the weekend.
526 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Key Messages: 1) Light rain possible mainly S tonight into early Friday 2) Cooler Fri through this weekend with freezing temperatures Friday night. 3) Warmer with highs in the 60s Tue/Wed then another chance of rain. Increased cloud cover tonight will keep most or all areas above freezing with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s (coolest east).
Not a ton to talk about across the San Juans or for the lower valleys where dry conditions continue with passing clouds as the northern waves work across.
521 AM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 A passing cold front tonight will provide rain showers. The associated surface cold front will swing through the upper midwest, then reach central Ohio this evening. The cold front will move quickly through the area overnight, bringing widespread rain showers. A secondary cold front, with much colder air behind it, will push through the region late Friday night.
516 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 (Today) High pressure will build across the region today in wake of the overnight cold front.
First, area observations are running a couple degrees warmer than forecast. Current wind advisory looks to be in great shape for now as we have already seen advisory criteria gusts in the higher terrain. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 44 63 39 51 / 90 40 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 44 62 39 49 / 70 80 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 42 62 38 48 / 70 70 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 44 60 35 47 / 50 80 0 10 10 TN.
A strong mid-level cyclone was deepening over the Northern Plains this morning, intensified by its placement in the left exit region of an upstream upper level jet streak. Snow will also impact the state today and tonight, generally north, central and east, as theta-e advection from a TROWAL wraps around the potent cyclone. On Friday, the upper low begins to kick east and high pressure builds under ridging from the west.
403 AM MST Thu Nov 11 2021 Radars are cameras are showing some light snow continuing over the high mountains at this time. There will be orographic snowfall in the high mountains, hampered by shallow moisture availability today and tonight. For Mon, it looks dry with warmer temps as readings rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, over nern CO.
601 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 The cold front has pushed through the region this early morning with some rain lingering across portions of central and north- central Missouri. Highs today will be cooler than previous days and near seasonal normals with highs in the low to mid 50s. Gusty west northwesterly winds will continue throughout the day today as the tight pressure gradient caused by a deep closed low across the Upper Midwest persists. The aforementioned closed low will slowly slide eastward toward the Great Lakes on Friday and will send a reinforcing cold front through the region early Friday morning with cold Arctic air filtering into the region.
Observations over the last hour continue to show light precipitation, mostly less than a tenth of an inch per hour, occuring mostly across the higher terrain as clouds droplets collide with one another along the windward slopes under a low level flow generally from the west-southwest. The moisture and dynamics are greatest the further north one goes, so the higher precipitation rates this morning are along the northern tier of the forecast area. With clouds and lingering moisture from the warm front having kept temperatures up overnight, we're expecting a mild day today with highs about 10 degrees above normal. Tonight through Friday night clouds will increase along and near the coast and then spread inland as a cold front pushes in from the northwest and generally washes out over the area.
A cold front will move across the area late tonight with winds becoming north at the TAF sites.
0 kft and will begin to scatter out as the bulk of the rain showers press east offshore into the Atlantic ahead of a cold front.
214 AM PST Thu Nov 11 2021 High pressure will bring mild afternoon temperatures followed by cool overnight lows through the weekend. Nothing much to see here as a strong ridge builds over the West leading to warm days, cool nights, and dry conditions. Otherwise, anticipate fog and freezing fog in the Martis and Sierra Valleys the next several nights.
A high pressure centered just offshore of the Carolina coast is slowly moving eastward.
A cold front tonight will switch winds to the north at 15 to 20 knots with some gusts picking up after 14z tomorrow. A cold front will move across the area late tonight with winds becoming north at the TAF sites.
Tmrw, expect jet streak dynamical energy to provide enough agitation as a 2ndary trof axis swings thru the area for patchy light rain to develop.
On the back edge is some enhancement which is likely the cold front. The upper low/trough will take 36 hrs or so to move across the cwa, which means we're likely to see showers through Friday night.
256 PM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 As the upper level trough shifts across the northern Plains into the Great lakes area this afternoon and evening, the trough will push the associated surface front through the forecast area starting in the next hour or so. Northwest winds behind the front will bring cooler and drier air across the area.
(This evening through Friday) Dry weather will continue across the area the next 24 hours, with another cold front moving through tomorrow. Slightly cooler temperatures will follow the front, along with breezy north winds. Expect clear skies and light winds tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s, with highs Friday ranging from the mid 60s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s and lower 70s over southern sections.
148 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 A cold front has pushed through our area with winds coming out of the northwest and colder air beginning to funnel in.
A weak backdoor cold front will result in a northerly wind shift across the eastern plains after 06Z.
1155 AM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 Mild air will be displaced by a cold front passing through tonight and early Friday morning.
It will be breezy and cooler on Friday as well with rain showers mainly in the afternoon. With a west wind in the low-levels, lake effect rain/snow showers can impact Berrien and Cass (MI) counties Friday night.
(This afternoon through Friday night) An upper level trough is centered over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and extends south to the Gulf Coast. Upper ridging is over the southwest part of the country. The upper trough will move eastward on Friday and the upper ridge will expand over the southwest conus. A cold front with gusty north to northeast winds will begin moving into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Friday morning.
Increasing cloud cover may help keep temperatures from dropping much below freezing in west central and portions of southwest Kansas.
Colder low temperatures can be expected tonight as cooler and drier low level air continues to advect into MO and IL. Clouds will rotate back into the region late tonight and Friday due to wrap-around type low level moisture south-southwest of the surface and upper level low over the Great Lakes region. Most of the precipitation associated with the slow moving low pressure system should remain north-northeast of our forecast area on Friday, although there may be a brief period of light rain in parts of northeast MO and west central IL Friday afternoon.
WARMER WITH PASSING SHOWERS. A coastal trough/hybrid warm front was pivoting northward across the local area this morning, with spotty patches of showers developing along and trailing the boundary within the 'warm' sector. Expect diurnally enhanced shower activity will continue to blossom across the area through the afternoon hours, streaming northward through early afternoon, then transitioning to more NNE to ENE into the evening with a slightly more organized convective line of showers moving offshore of the local Atlantic coast through early evening as a result of sea breeze and shallow boundary mergers, including a second trough axis pivoting northward from south-central FL.
Previous discussion: Light rain showers are possible today on the backside of a low pressure system across mainly the NE zones. Cold temperatures at the surface and aloft in the NE zones will mean snow, at least initially, as a warm front approaches. In between, cold temperatures as the surface with warming temperatures aloft support a wintry mix with light freezing rain also possible.
252 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Much cooler and dry weather is expected through the night, but a quick moving system will bring gusty winds to the area tomorrow, along with a mix of rain showers and snow showers to areas north of I-72/Danville.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, it is much more brisk across the area, particularly when factoring in a steady northwest wind. Along with cool mid-level temperatures under the upper low, this has been enough for a few scattered showers to develop across east-central Kansas. Along with cloud cover, the increased CAA will keep high temperatures in the low/mid 40s tomorrow. Tomorrow night, skies will begin to clear and winds will lessen as high pressure builds in.
Tonight and Friday A cold front was exiting the Door Peninsula late this afternoon and taking the steady rain along with it. Snow and rain showers will return late tonight as the upper low moves into Wisconsin from Minnesota. Scattered snow showers will continue Friday in the cyclonic upper flow with the low overhead.
Increased cloud cover tonight will keep most or all areas above freezing with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s (coolest east).
1017 AM MST Thu Nov 11 2021 Current surface analysis shows strengthening low pressure centered over far northeast ND/far northwest MN, with tightening pressure gradient across the Plains to the west and southwest. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far southeast SK, with very strong jet on the back side of the low from AB to MT, WY, and CO. Weakening pressure gradient and warmer air aloft to the west should limit mixing potential and stronger winds from northeast WY into far western SD.
Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas. Highs today will range from the lower to mid 50s along I-70 to the upper 50s to near 60 along the Oklahoma border southeast of Dodge City. Temperatures will likely be a little cooler as the low level flow becomes more northerly instead of northwesterly, leading to less of a downslope component.
Strong winds will continue through this evening as backside surface trof rotates through the forecast area.
1230 PM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 A cold front will move through the area today bringing rain and windy conditions. A warm front is currently located just south of the area. Expect another 10 to 15 degrees of warming today before much colder air arrives behind the cold front. Ahead of this cold front, rain will start moving in from the west shortly after sunrise. It will then dry out quickly behind the front this evening, and winds will come down but remain breezy with the upper low just moving into Wisconsin. As mentioned above, much colder air will follow the cold front as the upper low rotates through the Great Lakes.
218 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Showers are located along and just in advance of the cold front which currently stretches along I-65. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs generally upper 50s to near 60.
Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light in the lower elevations, with snowfall up to 2 inches above 4500 ft in the West Central Mountains and above 5500 ft in the Boise Mountains.
The best focus for afternoon and early evening showers will be generally along and east of the Highway 301 corridor, then resultant showers (and possibly a lone thunderstorm but potential too low to include in TAFs) drifted back toward the Atlantic coastal terminals through 00-02z while coverage and intensity fades.
Stronger upper wave will rotate around main upper low over the western Great Lakes tonight. Precipitation will generally be light with the highest amounts expected across far northeast Oklahoma.
First, area observations are running a couple degrees warmer than forecast. Current wind advisory looks to be in great shape for now as we have already seen advisory criteria gusts in the higher terrain. The main aviation concerns will be with a line of showers along a cold front expected to move through the area this afternoon and tonight. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 44 63 39 51 / 90 50 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 44 62 39 49 / 80 90 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 42 62 38 48 / 90 90 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 44 60 35 47 / 40 100 0 10 10 TN.
A cold front will cross the area with a band of showers and gusty winds.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ High pressure is rebuilding across the region this afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures are forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s tonight. West winds early on Friday to become northwest around 10 mph during the afternoon as reinforcing high pressure builds across the region. Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures on Friday to range from the lower 60s across the I-30 corridor to the mid 70s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to near freezing north of I-30 with lows near 40 elsewhere.
1021 AM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 Gusty winds and then showers will occur ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area late this afternoon and this evening.
While shear is impressive, especially in the low levels, the lack of instability today should inhibit any severe storms. The cold front discussed above will advance steadily southeastward early this evening, with scattered showers possible across mainly the southeastern half of the CWFA until the boundary exits the forecast area around 4-5Z. Although the postfrontal airmass will be notably cooler and drier, it's origins over the North Pacific suggest that lows will only fall into the u30s-l40s. Well to our north, the closed upper low noted in the near term discussion will track slowly eastward across the Upper-MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes tonight and Friday. A powerful upper- level speed max is predicted to dive rapidly south-southeastward across the central Plains on Friday and into the base of the trough on Friday night.
101 PM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 Gusty winds and then showers will occur ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area late this afternoon and this evening.
1120 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 The cold front has pushed through the region this early morning with some rain lingering across portions of central and north- central Missouri. Highs today will be cooler than previous days and near seasonal normals with highs in the low to mid 50s. Gusty west northwesterly winds will continue throughout the day today as the tight pressure gradient caused by a deep closed low across the Upper Midwest persists. The aforementioned closed low will slowly slide eastward toward the Great Lakes on Friday and will send a reinforcing cold front through the region early Friday morning with cold Arctic air filtering into the region.
153 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 A line of showers along a cold front is moving eastward across the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will gradually fall tonight down into the lower 40s. A reinforcing cold front drops down from the northwest on Friday.
This afternoon a strong and nearly stacked low pressure system sits just to the east of the forecast area. Along with the winds, widespread snow showers are found across much of the forecast area due to wrap-around moisture on the backside of the low. As the low slowly slides east overnight and through the day tomorrow, so will the snow showers and area of strongest winds. Clearing and diminished winds are expected across western North Dakota by early Friday afternoon as high pressure moves in. Early Friday night, western and central North Dakota will find itself in between two low pressure systems, resulting in light winds but skies becoming/remaining mostly cloudy.
At the surface a powerful low pressure system occluding over upper midwest states into the western Great Lakes sends a cold front sweeping through our area this afternoon and evening. Generally VFR conditions prevail across the region despite the increasing showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the approach of a cold front from the northwest.
139 PM EST Thu Nov 11 2021 Mild air will be displaced by a cold front passing through tonight and early Friday morning.
1155 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 (Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas today, behind a cold front that pushed through the region early this morning. Much cooler temperatures are forecast overnight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
So even though skies will be clear with winds remaining elevated overnight temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than those observed last night but still in the 30's and lower 40's. Early Friday morning a cold front will begin to enter the forecast area. The cold front should clear the forecast area by the late morning and winds will gradually diminish through the afternoon. This front will also bring slightly cooler air into the region with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid 50's in the southwest Texas Panhandle to the mid 60's in the southern Rolling Plains.
450 PM MST Thu Nov 11 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion Light precipitation and warming temperatures will begin to dominate the region late tonight and through the day on Friday as a warm front lifts eastward across the region.