Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Later tonight, guidance and various CAMs suggest drizzle will become more widespread, and with continued overcast skies, overnight lows will drop only slightly into the low 50s.
MUCAPEs have climbed to between 700-1200 J/kg over parts of central and north central WI, with much lower values in the Fox Valley and lake shore due to the lower dewpoints. The low wet bulb heights of 6000-7000 feet will continue to favor hail producing storms, with the strongest possibly producing some severe hail. For late evening/overnight, skies will at least partially clear out as the trough and front exit the area. Weak high pressure looks to keep things dry, along with limited moisture, but can't rule out a stray shower along the remnant outflow boundary and/or lake breeze. Temps will be very spring-like and will return to a little above normal readings, with most spots seeing highs in the 70s, except cooler near the shores of Lake Michigan.
Lows tonight will be warmer as winds become more southerly and clouds increase from the west. As high pressure continues moving off to the east tomorrow, southerly winds and increasing moisture will be the rule across the region. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow under southerly winds, ranging from the middle to upper 80s.
1135 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021 An upper level positive tilted trough is expected to track eastward towards the Midwest, with a ridge of high pressure coming on-board from the western seaboard. However, high-resolution models remain in fairly good agreement that much of the precipitation is expected to remain to the south, with better chances along the higher terrains and in the Rockie Mountains.
A building upper ridge to our west will continue to provide mostly clear skies and a warming trend.
To the north, conditions were dry as the rain was having a difficult time winning over a deep layer of dry air in place from high pressure ridging over the east central U. Further off to the north, a cold front was analyzed from eastern South Dakota to north central Wisconsin. An additional rain shower or isolated storm will be possible this evening mainly along and north of Hwy 20, as the cold front slowly approaches the area. The presence of surface ridging, near-calm winds and added boundary layer moisture from rain showers will increase potential for patchy fog tonight, with focus primarily on I-80 south.
Moisture will be a little more favorable in the low levels along the lakeshore, but there is a lack of any large scale or organized forcing.
100 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low to mid 70s can be expected today into Tuesday.
146 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Aviation - Dissipating thunderstorms from the NW this evening - Risk for Thunderstorms later Thu - Near seasonable High temps into Thu then warmer than normal - Dissipating thunderstorms from the NW this evening The atmosphere in WI becomes rather unstable this afternoon and evening. We will hold onto the low risk for thunderstorms in that region for this evening.
/27/ Dry weather will continue today as high pressure remains in control across the region. Dry weather will continue through tonight, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer as winds become more southerly and cloud cover increases from the west. As an upper trough moves across the region and sends a frontal boundary toward us, this will allow for pretty much daily shower and thunderstorm chances for our region through the week into the weekend. The trough won't be quick to move through the region but should be exiting stage east by the weekend. This will bring high pressure at the surface and upper ridging back to the region.
221 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will control the weather pattern across the lower mid-Atlantic today and Tuesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
The warming and drying trend will continue as a ridge of high pressure strengthens and moves over the Northern Rockies this week.
Discussion: A quiet forecast in store as high pressure is just off to our southeast. Southwesterly flow and increasing high clouds late tonight will allow overnight temps to be around 10 degrees warmer compared to last night with temps in the lower to upper 50s. Because of the high clouds and temperature increase, dont' not expect to see any fog overnight. If an isolated shower were to develop, it would be across the high terrain of the eastern mountains late in the afternoon but currently don't have any POPs in the forecast. Highs tomorrow will be back in the lower 80s.
High cirrus will continue to stream over the area ahead of a Midwest trough and jet streak. Lows tonight should be 7-10 degrees warmer than last night, mainly in the 50s. Discussion: A quiet forecast in store as high pressure is just off to our southeast. Southwesterly flow and increasing high clouds late tonight will allow overnight temps to be around 10 degrees warmer compared to last night with temps in the lower to upper 50s. Because of the high clouds and temperature increase, dont' not expect to see any fog overnight. If an isolated shower were to develop, it would be across the high terrain of the eastern mountains late in the afternoon but currently don't have any POPs in the forecast. Highs tomorrow will be back in the lower 80s.
Peak heating is expected this Memorial Day as high pressure builds inland over California. With the ridge axis building into Northern California, the hottest temperatures are likely to remain confined to the interior North Bay and East Bay where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM this evening. Above average temperatures look to persist through much of the week as high pressure aloft gradually weakens. Ensemble guidance suggests troughing developing over the Pacific Northwest and down into Northern California by late week. SFO Bridge Approach.
It's an absolutely perfect Memorial Day afternoon with very little cloud cover and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. We are situated within zonal flow with an upper trough approaching the Great Lakes and very broad troughing in the Southwest. The northern trough will pass to the north with no consequences to our area. The broad troughing to the west will impact the weather over the next few days. The general trough axis will slowly slide eastward with a couple impulses ejecting.
20Z water vapor and profiler data suggests a couple vort maximum within a broader upper trough over the southern U. And surface obs show an inverted trough over the southern plains with high pressure across northern KS.
A trough of low pressure over Arizona and The Baja is responsible for this activity. The main trough moves into the Central Plains on Tuesday while the souther portion of the trough cuts off over the Baja Spur.
Surface ridging will continue to hold strong for much of tonight, but will propagate east/southeast by morning. Quiet weather with few impacts in the short term as the center of a high pressure system lingers over south central ND. High pressure slides off to the southeast tonight and will set up return flow into eastern North Dakota tomorrow. Fire weather concerns will be very dependent on extent of cloud cover and my thinking is temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previously thought, resulting in humidity values in the upper 20s.
631 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Tonight brings one last round of cooler air before a warming trend returns temperatures back to where they are supposed to be for meteorological summer. High pressure moves offshore, creating strong return flow for the coastal Carolinas. Quiet near term period thanks to high pressure centered near the area. Area warms up tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s and scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. Lows Tuesday night in the low 60s away from the coast.
1014 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure builds across the area tonight, then moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
It will take some time for the lower levels to moisten up.
655 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will control the weather pattern across the lower mid-Atlantic today and Tuesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
A strong ridge of high pressure has built into NorCal and we are seeing hot temperatures this afternoon. The upper level ridge will remain in place tomorrow and that will bring another hot day but we will continue to see flow through the Delta and that will keep the Delta region and the Sacramento area slightly cooler then today.
Onshore flow, deeper moisture, remnants of an old frontal boundary and mid level PVA on the back side of the low should support scattered showers and a slight chance for lightning storms across the Treasure Coast from around midnight into the overnight hours. High pressure becomes anchored over the western Atlc with a continuous plume of higher moisture persisting over the area. The Atlc ridge axis will shift south with time which will veer the low level winds out of the SE-S. The persistent onshore flow will keep min temps very mild in the low to mid 70s along the coast, dipping into the upper 60s interior. High pressure will consolidate and become anchored over the western Atlc.
High pressure and unremarkable zonal flow aloft will continue to keep us dry this evening and tonight. The mid and upper pattern will transition to a more SW deep layer flow over our region by Tuesday in response to an amplifying central CONUS trough.
828 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is centered just north of Wichita Falls with a cold front draped across central Oklahoma into West Texas.
933 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift off to the east tonight.
952 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will control the weather pattern across the lower mid-Atlantic today and Tuesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
832 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will build overhead tonight and move offshore Tuesday. An upper level trough will pass through the area at the end of the week. High pressure will build overhead tonight. Warmer with highs near 80 with humidity levels still at comfortable levels. Moisture and instability increase further on Wed with scattered mainly afternoon showers and t-storms mainly west of the Blue Ridge as an upper level trough inches closer to the area.
637 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure builds over the region tonight, then moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
759 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will settle over the region resulting in fair and seasonable conditions through Tuesday.
Severe thunderstorms are no longer expected across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian Basin so the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for these areas has been allowed to expire. The upper level trough supporting the convection will slowly move east tomorrow allowing PoPs to diminish the remainder of the week. However the trough will deposit a cutoff low over Mexico that will linger for several days continuing some chance for scattered showers.
520 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska with a weakly defined area of low pressure over central Montana/western Wyoming, tightening the surface pressure gradient and creating breezy southerly winds over the forecast area.
The progressive pattern will continue throughout the short term, as the previous day's ridge has now exited the region. Behind the ridge, some increased winds aloft and moisture downstream of the loft has lead to mostly cloudy skies over most of central Indiana. These upper level clouds will still have some effect on the overall temperature gains this afternoon, but highs should still get into the low to mid 70s.
736 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 A quiet night is in store with low temperatures primarily in the lower 50s.
Presently, high pressure sits over the region leading to calm winds and sunny skies. A gradual warming trend takes place through the period as a west CONUS ridge, along with southerly flow in the lower levels, gradually works its way eastward through the week.
1013 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure centered over the area will move off to the mid- Atlantic coast tonight.
615 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Surface ridging will continue to hold strong for much of tonight, but will propagate east/southeast by morning. Quiet weather with few impacts in the short term as the center of a high pressure system lingers over south central ND. High pressure slides off to the southeast tonight and will set up return flow into eastern North Dakota tomorrow. Fire weather concerns will be very dependent on extent of cloud cover and my thinking is temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previously thought, resulting in humidity values in the upper 20s.
Light SE flow will continue overnight, in concert with the increasing cloud cover, which will keep temps in the low 60s.
747 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure centered over the area will move off to the mid- Atlantic coast tonight.
1057 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will control the weather pattern across the lower mid-Atlantic into Tuesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
The upper ridge will continue to build into the Intermountain West over the next few days, resulting in a warming trend and dry, calm conditions.
731 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift off to the east tonight.
540 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Upper northwest flow continues over the area today and Tuesday as the ridge continues to strengthen over the western CONUS. Temperatures will begin warming in earnest Tuesday as the ridging builds further, with highs over 5 degrees above normal at many locations.
However, the earlier rain has kept temperatures cool and the lower levels moist. The upper low currently over the southwestern CONUS will cut off over Baja California on Tuesday and remain there for much of this week. We will come under the influence of westerly/northwesterly flow aloft as an upper level trough moves across the Plains. An upper ridge building over the western CONUS on Tuesday will develop a pseudo like rex blocking pattern for the next several days.
737 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Much of our area was on the subsidence side of an upper level trough this afternoon.
1016 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure builds across the area tonight, then moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
930 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 A peaceful night is in store with high pressure at the surface and cirrus streaming overhead. High pressure and unremarkable zonal flow aloft will continue to keep us dry this evening and tonight. The mid and upper pattern will transition to a more SW deep layer flow over our region by Tuesday in response to an amplifying central CONUS trough.
233 PM PDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure strengthens over the region through midweek with building heat as high temperatures rise several degrees each day.
621 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) At this hour, a line of rain and thunderstorms was located along a cold front as it slowly moved southward. In addition, the cold front will sink further south into the Hill Country, which should provide plenty of lift for showers and thunderstorms.
Do expect the low level jet to continue increasing across portions of E OK/NW AR with stronger low level forcing developing and PWATs climbing into the 1.
804 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure builds across the area tonight, then moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
1001 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
The slow moving trough responsible for our active weather pattern the last few days will continue to impact the region, with another round of strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly west of the Pecos River, and favored across the higher terrain and immediately adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas.
Surface analysis and radar trends suggest a weak boundary/warm front remains stretched from Oklahoma to the Ozark Plateau.
High cirrus will continue to stream over the area ahead of a Midwest trough and jet streak. Lows tonight should be 7-10 degrees warmer than last night, mainly in the 50s. High pressure will prevail during this taf cycle amidst modest moisture in the low levels. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 65 83 66 81 / 10 20 30 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 63 80 65 79 / 10 10 30 50 90 Oak Ridge, TN 82 62 79 63 78 / 10 20 40 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 59 80 61 78 / 10 10 20 50 90.
Light SE flow will continue overnight, in concert with the increasing cloud cover, which will keep temps in the low 60s. The main trough axis will position itself SW of the area Wednesday, and the surface front reflection will stall out near the TN Valley, resulting in more precipitation coverage.
Surface ridging will continue to hold strong for much of tonight, but will propagate east/southeast by morning. Quiet weather with few impacts in the short term as the center of a high pressure system lingers over south central ND. High pressure slides off to the southeast tonight and will set up return flow into eastern North Dakota tomorrow. Fire weather concerns will be very dependent on extent of cloud cover and my thinking is temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previously thought, resulting in humidity values in the upper 20s. 500 mb vort trough will move through during the day. Moisture remains scant, but some possibility of an isolated t-storm Wed aftn in north central Minnesota and points east where 500 mb temps a bit cooler.
The upper level trough defined in the water vapor imagery remains in place extending from Western Colorado southwest across Arizona to northern Baja. Model guidance only shifts this trough slightly southeast through the week, keeping instability generally over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
1233 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Tonight brings one last round of cooler air before a warming trend returns temperatures back to where they are supposed to be for meteorological summer. High pressure moves offshore, creating strong return flow for the coastal Carolinas. Quiet near term period thanks to high pressure centered near the area. Area warms up tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s and scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. Lows Tuesday night in the low 60s away from the coast.
1139 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA has a westerly flow aloft as it lies underneath a positively tilted trough that has its base over the Baja Peninsula while an upper air trough move in off the Pacific coast. Hwy-36 into the evening hours due to some isentropic lift currently seen in the area along with the placement of the upper air trough axis. Remainder of the day temperatures look to be around the lower to upper 60s range.
Subjective H850 continues to show sub tropical high over the southeast US while the low last week is now over New England. Another weak area of low pressure is over the southwest with a narrow ribbon of higher moisture streaming north over western TX and a broader area of moisture riding north into OK and KS last night. Our next system will be a slow moving upper level trough over the Dakotas into MN as well as a weak boundary over northern Iowa.
The low clouds and patchy fog should stay with us through the mid morning hours. A cold front moved through yesterday and last night with the showers and thunderstorms, bringing a more stable surface air mass into the area.
The main story for the end of the week and into the weekend is gradually warming temperatures and increasing dewpoints as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
As the main trough axis moves eastward, the upper- level low at the base of the trough becomes cut off over northern Mexico. High pressures then builds to the north and west of Arizona, keeping the low locked in place through the week.
The main upper trof will continue to dig to our west Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the trof axis taking on a positive tilt, extending from eastern NE through west TX.
Widespread wet ground and vegetation will assist with this, and temperatures will be held in the lower 50s (near the dewpoint) at most locations. Midlevel trough aloft will remain over SW Kansas through Tuesday, with chilly 500 mb temperatures as low as -15C. Primary trough axis finally moves east on Wednesday, centered on the Ozarks by 7 pm. This will finally allow for some warming in the lower atmosphere, with 850 mb thermal trends supporting mid 70s in the afternoon.
Once again high pressure is laying off to the east allowing for moisture to funnel into the region from the gulf around the backside of the ridge.
The upper-level positively-tilted trough over the Midwest into Oklahoma and north Texas will shift slowly to the east today, leaving the southern Plains under northwest flow aloft. With the upper trough in close proximity, however, a few scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms will remain a possibility through tonight.
Rain will increase overnight into Wednesday as the main upper trough continues to dig just to our west.
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure lingers over the area today.
118 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A quiet night is in store with low temperatures primarily in the lower 50s.
20Z water vapor and profiler data suggests a couple vort maximum within a broader upper trough over the southern U. And surface obs show an inverted trough over the southern plains with high pressure across northern KS. For tonight through Wednesday, models are in good agreement that the larger scale upper trough will slowly propagate east continuing to impact the region until it passes east Wednesday night. Highs Tue and Wed are forecast to be in the low to middle 70s while lows remain in the middle 50s. Mid level ridging is progged for the end of the week. This should lead to more dry weather with temps trending warmer with highs in the middle 80s forecast for the weekend. The ECMWF and GFS show an upper low pressure system lifting north from central TX by the end of the forecast period.
321 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A mid-level trough is working across the area this morning while another system organizes in the Northern Plains. 2) Warmer and more humid later in the week and beyond.
257 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 (Issued 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021) Today through Wednesday: A quiet morning is underway today, with early morning temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Cooler temperatures and breezy east winds can be expected behind the boundary. The only exception may be the far north and northwestern fridges of the forecast area, where a few showers or storms could develop along the remnant cold front (which is located just to our northwest). Temperatures look to be a touch warmer on Wednesday, with most of the area in the upper 70s to around 80.
Wednesday will signify the beginning of some changes as the upper trough over the Central Plains amplifies and pushes eastward, setting up southwest flow aloft locally. While most convective coverage will remain well to our west closer to the trough, at least a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon in far north Georgia. RW As the period begins on Wednesday night, an amplifying upper level longwave trough will be moving eastward into the Mississippi River Valley region. Southwesterly flow will be in place ahead of the trough and over much of the Southeastern CONUS. At the surface, broad high pressure in the mid-Atlantic will promote easterly to southeasterly flow over much of Georgia.
Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 70s Tuesday with another chance for showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Cloudy condtions will continue rest of the night with overnight lows reaching down into the low 50s in the north to the upper 50s in the southeast. Low and mid level ridge axis in place along the East Coast will continue to slide further east this evening allowing SW flow and moisture return into the Midwest. Strong upper ridge is in place along the West Coast this afternoon while just downstream a trough spans much of the central part of the country.