Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Skies will be clear through Wednesday with a warming trend, with highs mostly in the 80s in the valleys by Wednesday and lower 90s in the lower deserts.
948 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Showers will plague the Upper Ohio Region today with crossing low pressure. Low pressure is progged to track across the Upper Ohio/Mid Atlantic Regions today. Showers will thus persist until the exiting system pulls a cold front across the area during the afternoon and early eve. As high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, cooler and drier air will filter over the region.
Precipitation becomes likely late this afternoon into the overnight as the low-levels become saturated. Starting on Wednesday, rain is expected to be ongoing across our region as an upper low pressure system crosses the central and southern plains.
705 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Showers will plague the Upper Ohio Region today with crossing low pressure. Low pressure is progged to track across the Upper Ohio/Mid Atlantic Regions today. Showers will thus persist until the exiting system pulls a cold front across the area during the afternoon and early eve. As high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, cooler and drier air will filter over the region.
751 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 An area of low pressure will move along the Mason-Dixon line through tonight.
A low pressure center will shift east into New Mexico this afternoon with decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity over northern Arizona.
The axis of an upper level trough has moved to our east this morning and a strong upper ridge will be building in from the west through the day. At the surface, high pressure centered off the southeast U. coast will ridge westward to the central gulf. A cold front entering northern AL/GA will pivot to become more east to west oriented and begin to stall.
High pressure will move into the region tonight bringing lighter winds and slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday.
1104 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 An area of low pressure will move along the Mason-Dixon line through tonight.
By Wednesday, an upper ridge across the southwestern U. A new trough will dig into the western U.
/Tonight/ Concern today/tonight will be coverage and evolution of expected convection along/ahead of the weak cold front. Cold front moving through the CWA today to stall out across the south tonight and may have some lingering activity across the south into early Thursday.
602 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Across the country this afternoon, high pressure dominates the east coast, but moving westward into the Midwest, the pattern is considerably more unsettled.
1025 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Update/Marine A low pressure system moving slowly through the Great Lakes region will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon.
Upper high is centered over nrn MS this afternoon.
1024 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move offshore as a warm from central Indiana to southern Ohio moves northeast through the region. On Thursday the region will be in a rather warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
726 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Broad area of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking off an aftn shower or tstorm. Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge.
1258 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region through Thursday.
900 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure surface and aloft to the north of the state will maintain a moderate northeast to easterly wind flow over the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight. High pressure north of the waters will maintain a northeast to east wind flow over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight with winds in the 10 to 15 knot range near shore and around 15 knots offshore with seas of 2 to 4 feet.
The localized mid level subsidence and negative theta-e advection will then give way to a resurgence of moisture transport ahead of the cold front late tonight through Thursday morning. Restriction is expected to evolve more into a fog scenario overnight before improving through mid Thursday morning within warm sector prior to cold front set to arrive Thursday afternoon. The low level jet will also continue to advect some good moisture as precipitable waters get to around 2 inches. While the storms should continue to move to the northeast around 30 mph, the high water content with the forcing on the back side of the MCV continuing to feed the system could lead to a couple of rounds of showers and storms with heavy rainfall for a few isolated locations, especiallyfrom Detroit on south.
Little change in today's weather compared to the last few days with a 594dam subtropical ridge centered over N MS/AL. The best convection this afternoon was once again along and south of the I-20 corridor further away from the subsidence from the ridge while areas to the north remained dry.
Based on high resolution model guidance the best chances for showers across the far north will be later tonight when secondary cold front swings through. This low will track slowly across southern Manitoba tonight and into southwest Ontario on Thursday morning.
712 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 A s/w ejecting out ahead of the main trof over the srn Plains will continue to lift newd this evening. Tilly Cold front to continue it's slow progress to the south on Thursday, finally stalling out just south of forecast area Thursday night. Depending on cloud cover and precipitation, highs will range from the low 80s far north to the low 90s south on Thursday.
A ridge aloft and at the surface remains stretched across the southeast states and into the local area. While a slightly drier airmass is located across SE TX and Western LA today, a deeper moisture plume and weak inverted trough is being advected west along the southern periphery.
Restriction is expected to evolve more into a fog scenario overnight before improving through mid Thursday morning within warm sector prior to cold front set to arrive Thursday afternoon. The low level jet will also continue to advect some good moisture as precipitable waters get to around 2 inches. While the storms should continue to move to the northeast around 30 mph, the high water content with the forcing on the back side of the MCV continuing to feed the system could lead to a couple of rounds of showers and storms with heavy rainfall for a few isolated locations, especiallyfrom Detroit on south.
An upper level ridge of high pressure is over the southeastern U. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index readings in the 95 to 100 degree range this afternoon. These muggy conditions will continue into early this evening then temperatures will slowly cool into the lower 70s for overnight lows tonight. The upper level high has pushed a front across south central Kansas into northern Missouri. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range again across much of the area. The front will be able to sag slightly farther to the south as the upper level high sags slightly to the southeast.
Across the country this afternoon, high pressure dominates the east coast, but moving westward into the Midwest, the pattern is considerably more unsettled.
1029 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will remain to the south through Thursday.
As upper trough and associated height falls continue to move toward the Great Lakes region, height rises will overspread the northern Plains. Temps will be a few degrees cooler Thursday, especially in portions of north central NE. A longwave upper trough will extend across Montana into northeastern Nevada Thursday night.
749 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will give way to a storm system sliding out of the Great Lakes.
/Issued 346 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016/ Upper air analysis shows a shear axis/trough roughly situated across the Interstate 20 corridor this afternoon. Even though the airmass will remain very moist, high pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather pattern.
1125 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front as weak upper level systems move across the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s each dasy.
648 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Well-advertised cold front is currently draped across southeastern NE into west-central IA, aiding in blossoming up convection. Ridging to the south and east is allowing for perturbations to ride its periphery right across the local region and southerly to southwesterly flow to allow for a continued source of moisture advecting in.
Afternoon seabreeze should also help to develop more isolated to scattered showers during the peak heating hours with the better chances along the higher moisture axis across the northern Coastal Bend. Temperatures will be right around normal but with the higher PWATs and dewpoints moving back in, afternoon heat index values may approach 105 to 109 degrees across the Coastal Bend areas.
A disturbance moving slowly eastward along the western MT/WY state line has produced up to two tenths of rain in the Beartooth foothills, and a reinforcing upper disturbance/surface cold front moving into northeast zones from the main upper low over south central Canada. An upper low centered over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba continued to keep the area under cyclonic flow aloft this afternoon, with upslope flow at the surface. Below normal temperatures will continue into Thursday as the region remains underneath a trough.
803 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Aviation A low pressure system moving slowly through the Great Lakes region will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon.
Deep layer moisture continues to increase over central PA early this afternoon as return southwest flow has commenced west of the 850 mb ridge moving offshore south of Long Island.
/issued 344 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ The mid-level anticyclone is firmly entrenched over the southeast CONUS this afternoon. Despite a modest diurnal Cu field, temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 90s across the Mid- South. Expect overnight lows similar to what we experienced this morning, with temperatures generally in the low/mid 70s. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today's, with highs in the low/mid 90s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again tomorrow, but like today, the subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge will limit coverage.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals as cold front moves farther south. The cold front that was expected to push into the Panhandles is hung up over the Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle. It is a reasonable scenario that the front will be held up as the short wave moving in from New Mexico is not as strong and the upper ridge to our east remains in place.
In the positive, the upper trough continues to slowly edge toward the area, and is providing some divergence and ascent within an upper-level jet of 50 to 60 kts running from Far West Texas into northwest Oklahoma. The threat of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain will also be reduced this evening, however with the boundary running parallel to the mean flow there is some potential for training activity and locally heavier rainfall totals despite the lowered instability. A chance of rain showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight, although the bulk of the activity may shift to the north closer to the alignment of the low- level jet and a cold front moving south through the panhandles. This process is in response to a departing trough Thursday night and a subsequent development of reduced meridional flow.
This looks to continue into the early evening hours before an increase in moisture moves across the southern half of the area from southern Colorado around midnight associated with the approach of an upper trough. On Thursday the upper trough and better moisture slowly move east through mid to late afternoon before ending late in the day. If it verifies temperatures across the southern half of the area would be much cooler given extensive low cloudiness and a bit better chance of precipitation.
This low will track slowly across southern Manitoba tonight and into southwest Ontario on Thursday morning.
Mid level frontogenesis over the area resulting in fairly extensive mid-upper level cloud cover this afternoon, but expect this to diminish later tonight, allowing temperatures to drop into the lower-mid 50s by daybreak Thursday.
A surface cold front lags behind this system, however, and is moving across far western Wisconsin early this afternoon. The cold front over the northern Mississippi Valley will slide across the region late this afternoon and this evening, before stalling over southeast Wisconsin overnight. Cooler low temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Thursday Night Through Wednesday High pressure drifting over the Great Lakes Region for the remainder of the week will produce quiet dry conditions to most areas.
Surface cold front had slipped into far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon where calm winds and dew points were near 70. Freezing levels remain relatively high, near 14kft, so large hail looks unlikely given modest instability.
The upper ridge axis was remaining across the Tennessee valley region tonight.
803 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Broad area of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking off an aftn shower or tstorm. Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge.
cooler air with higher humidity will continue to spread south and west across the area tonight and Thursday. snow of 1 to 2 inches is possible in the higher mountains. Less precipitation will occur in the lower elevations and across the south.
918 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 HRRR meso model shows isolated showers/thunderstorms increasing in coverage a little late tonight, mainly far south and far southeast from milwaukee south ahead of the weak cold front. Winds will be weaker and out of the west after a weak cold front moves through the region.
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level closed low over southern Canada. Latest 19z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Canada into central Iowa and is producing light rain/sprinkles or drizzle along and ahead of cold front per latest KARX radar.
High pressure at the sfc extends SWwrd from the Carolinas down into the TX/LA border.
904 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 A few showers developed this evening in northeast Louisiana on the back side of the high pressure area. Expect these showers to dissipate soon but the high clouds will continue to stream into Arkansas.
VFR flight categories will prevail with mainly scattered lower clouds around 5 kft and ceilings of middle and high clouds from 13 kft to 25 kft for much of the lower half of East Texas and North Louisiana and parts of Southwest and South Central Arkansas. /issued 421 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ An upper level ridge centered over Mississippi has kept most of the CWA dry and hot today. This moisture stream is being drawn westward around the ridge and then northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Expect these showers to dissipate soon but the high clouds will continue to stream into Arkansas.
High pressure both sfc and aloft will persist over the fcst area. especially over coastal and western portions (closer to western periphery of ridge) of the fcst area as afternoon CAPE expected to again be in the 1500-2000 J/KG range. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 70s over interior areas to the upper 70s down near the coast. High temperatures on Thursday ranging from the low to mid 90s over interior locations.
1053 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over southern Manitoba with broad troffing over the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains with breezy northwest winds across northwest SD. Upper low/trof will diminish into westerly flow as it shifts eastward out of the region.
914 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific will provide some hot and dry weather with moderate offshore breezes.
Otherwise drier and warmer for most of the area as the high pressure begins to take hold. For the end of the week and into the weekend most of the area will be dry with the high pressure over the area. The strength and placement of this wave is still yet to be determined and will be determined by the placement of the ridge over the southeast and if there are any weaknesses within that ridge. Otherwise, we are looking at VFR conditions with mainly light and variable winds and low pops for Thursday thanks to ridging.
/issued 957 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ High pressure at the surface and aloft prevails across the Mid- South. /issued 344 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ The mid-level anticyclone is firmly entrenched over the southeast CONUS this afternoon. Despite a modest diurnal Cu field, temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 90s across the Mid- South. Expect overnight lows similar to what we experienced this morning, with temperatures generally in the low/mid 70s. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today's, with highs in the low/mid 90s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again tomorrow, but like today, the subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge will limit coverage.
945 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, an extensive area north atlantic ridge extends well into the Southeast United States and down the Florida peninsula. Outside of any possible heavy downpours, low temperatures will remain in the lower 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Otherwise drier and warmer for most of the area as the high pressure begins to take hold. For the end of the week and into the weekend most of the area will be dry with the high pressure over the area. The strength and placement of this wave is still yet to be determined and will be determined by the placement of the ridge over the southeast and if there are any weaknesses within that ridge. Otherwise, we are looking at VFR conditions with mainly light and variable winds and only low pops for Thursday thanks to ridging.
946 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will remain off the east coast tonight and Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Expect Mostly clear conditions across the region with lows in the low to mid 70s tonight. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler than what we've observed over the past several weeks- mostly in the lower 70s inland and away from the cities.
928 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper level ridge firmly entrenched over East Tennessee and North Carolina will remain in place over the next several days. At the surface, ridge of high pressure extending SW across Virginia into East Tennessee has brought light return flow to the area. With it, dewpoints have climbed back into the lower 70s across much of the region this evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 93 73 93 / 20 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 71 93 / 10 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 92 71 93 / 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 89 68 91 / 10 30 10 10.
653 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Main feature tonight is the mid level low pressure creating widespread clouds and scattered showers. Wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low across southwest Manitoba will remain across western and central North Dakota through the evening and into the early overnight.
502 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over southern Manitoba with broad troffing over the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains with breezy northwest winds across northwest SD. Upper low/trof will diminish into westerly flow as it shifts eastward out of the region.
Our western counties may be in question as some moisture works around the west side of the high.
830 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front as weak upper level systems move across the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s each dasy.
/issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper ridging over the southeast conus. The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a little less lift over the area and less low level moisture.
The slow moving cold front this evening remained positioned from the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles through Southern/Eastern Kansas into Northern Missouri and continuing northeast into the Great Lakes Region. temps could be a few degrees cooler as well with low around 70 to mid 70s possible.
631 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level closed low over southern Canada. Latest 19z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Canada into central Iowa and is producing light rain/sprinkles or drizzle along and ahead of cold front per latest KARX radar.
Upper trof now over eastern Montana continues to push east and is taking the cloud shield with it. Will leave the low PoPs in place through midnight.
/issued 421 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ An upper level ridge centered over Mississippi has kept most of the CWA dry and hot today. This moisture stream is being drawn westward around the ridge and then northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: An upper level low pressure system across southern Saskatchewan will continue to bring isolated to widely scattered showers to parts of northeast Montana through this evening. However, the upper level trough will persist in the vicinity and so cooler weather conditions will continue with highs below climate averages.
Building high pressure off of the southern California coast has resulted in mostly sunny skies over inland areas this afternoon. Late in the week, the aforementioned ridge will begin to shift southward as a broad mid/upper level trough drops southward out of the Pacific Northwest.
Winds will diminish inland and temperatures near 70 to the lower 70s are forecast.
746 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move offshore as a warm from central Indiana to southern Ohio moves northeast through the region. On Thursday the region will be in a rather warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
The upper level ridge will shift east during the day on Thursday and convection is expected to occur across parts of East and Southeast Texas. /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the southeastern U.
The upper level ridge will shift east during the day on Thursday and convection is expected to occur across parts of East and Southeast Texas.
Winds will ease at the lower elevations this evening, but east-northeast winds are expected over upper slopes and ridges overnight due to offshore flow. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control and with the dry offshore flow, little in the way of cloud cover is expected overnight.