Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER SE UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEREBY WEAKENING GRADIENT FLOW. A FEW WEAK STORMS MAY POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN (WITH THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BEING THE PREFERRED SPOT). HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL BE NUDGING SLOWLY WEST AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK.
AT THIS POINT PROGS SHOW BETTER 850 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 850 WIND MAX AND TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH SO DO PREFER THE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE HIGHER QPF NUMBERS TO OUR SOUTH.
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SW FLOW IN THE MID-UPR LEVELS WHICH WILL TAP NICELY INTO THE MONSOON PLUME AS EVIDENT BY H7 THETA-E ADVECTION/RIDGING.
249 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPO CONDITIONS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AT KMFE AND AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281/69C. 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. SQUEEZING BETWEEN THE SUMMERTIME NORTHERN GULF RIDGE AND THE HEAT LOW TO THE WEST.
615 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
543 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP MID SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY DUE A DRYING AIRMASS AT ALL LEVELS FROM SUBSIDENCE.
558 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/ Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday and near normal values for this time of year. A dryline is present across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos. The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
RAP/HRRR CONTINUE TO LINGER SHRA ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MIDDAY. SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES. CL UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN IDAHO THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL PROVIDE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WEAK WAVES KICKING OUT FROM THE LOW. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL POSITION OF THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT DIFFER SOME ON PLACEMENT OF WAVES KICKING OFF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR CONVECTION TO YESTERDAY WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOMEWHAT LOW FREEZING LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING ON THURSDAY.
254 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON STATE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
A CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM IS STILL OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
352 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL WORK INTO AZ TODAY AND WHILE REMAINING SLIGHTLY AHEAD. IT WILL PHASE WITH THE IDAHO LOW FOR A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH. WILL APPROACH ON THU WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY. THE HRR AND RAP MODELS PICKED OUT THIS SHORT WAVE EXTENDING OFF OF THE MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER ID/WA/OR. THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS JUST AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THEN AS THE MEAN TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER WYOMING. YET ONE MORE WEAK SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL INSTIGATE SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE EASTWARD THUS CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING THURSDAY.
452 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A REVIEW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE HAS COMMENCED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A FEW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS AROUND MIDNIGHT DUMPING 0.
LATEST VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NE ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND SW NC BEING MAINTAINED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE. WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO JUST OVER 1000J/KG WHILE MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 3KM IS GENERALLY 500J/KG OR SO. AND ANY PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS WELL.
A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
647 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000J/KG CAPE WHILE STILL RESPECTABLE 30-40KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF CWA WHERE LATER FROPA SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY WEAKEN A BIT WHILE DRIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH NEARBY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH APPROACHES. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE.
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS WI THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
423 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000J/KG CAPE WHILE STILL RESPECTABLE 30-40KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF CWA WHERE LATER FROPA SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER INSTABILITY.
650 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE TODAY. WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WITH FRI THE DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN. LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W.
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS ON THU AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.
626 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. IT ALLOWS WEAK MID- LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH ACROSS THE FA.
411 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD.
439 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015 A low pressure circulation over the Northern Rockies will continue to bring occasional shower and thunderstorm activity to the region through Thursday.
EAST CENTRAL FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 60W AND TROUGHING ALOFT WELL NW OF THE AREA. LOW LVL FLOW WILL TURN TO ESE/SE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WORKING UNDER THE MID LVL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GFS AND NAM MOS POPS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY. THUS HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. FORECAST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE RESIDING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
159 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.
431 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA.
SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES. CL UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
328 AM PDT Wed May 27 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
357 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015 The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one minor wave working its way east into Colorado. The next upper wave meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for convection to re-fire there this afternoon. The southwest flow aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Most of models develop convection driven by weak mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus is not obvious at this point. There could be a break Thursday night before the next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage.
241 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
305 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE TODAY. WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WITH FRI THE DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN. LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W.
653 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION A WARMING TREND WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FCST ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS S/W TROUGH BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAINFREE FORECAST. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
636 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. IT ALLOWS WEAK MID- LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH ACROSS THE FA.
442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015 COLORADO IS GOING TO BE UNDER WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER UTAH TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE PACNW AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA CA COAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER KERN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH.
/issued 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ We are looking at a very active weather period the next several days for SE NM and W TX as a slow-moving upper low (currently located over AZ) approaches the region from the west, significantly increasing rain chances as well as the potential for flooding/flash flooding. The upper low is forecast to reach the AZ/NM state border tomorrow afternoon, increasing upper forcing for ascent across the area. Wednesday night, the upper low looks to briefly stall near the AZ/NM/Mexico border then slowly sink south into northern Mexico Thursday.
This highly spatially variable features will be difficult as best in advance of the wave of warm advection aloft expected later in the overnight. A cold front will traverse the area on Thursday.
Winds will generally be from a southelry direction throughout the day due to a trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. Skies look to be partly cloudy overnight with winds shifting to more of a southwesterly direction ahead of a cold front progged to move through Thursday. As for temperatures, highs today look to top out around 80 degrees with lows tonight ranging form the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas. A cold front will traverse the area on Thursday.
347 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015 AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AROUND MIDDAY TODAY ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THE LAST OF THE PRECIP REMAINS CONCENTRATED UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT THIS TIME. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN DRIER. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR. HOWEVER A WEAK PERTABATION CARRIED ALONG BY THIS NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
145 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
310 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.
354 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
443 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 (Today and Tonight) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level low over southern Arizona this morning will continue to develop over West Texas today and slowly expand eastward in coverage through tonight. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 80s over all of West Central Texas and morning lows tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies will be in the lower 60s.
A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING AND SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION OR CENTRAL OREGON. THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO AROUND 060 FEET AGL WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING.
Weak ridging aloft will keep conds dry overnight into Weds with light winds also expected. However, cold front trailing this system to the southwest will pass across forecast area during Thursday into Thursday evening. NAM is quite dry with this front while other short/medium range models indicate good coverage of precip along and just behind the cold front and have somewhat disregarded NAM as the outlier.
A SFC COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH NW WI THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CLEAR AS WELL AS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH NW MN MOVES E AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE DAKOTAS. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.