Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Early this morning a broad upper level trough was translating eastward across the plains. Most of the showers and isolated thunderstorms have shifted east of the area ahead of the cold front which was exiting the southeast counties of the CWA early this morning. There may be enough DCVA ahead of the trough axis for a few showers or sprinkles across the eastern half of the CWA through the mid morning hours but as the H5 trough axis passes over head and to the east, the ascent will shift east of the CWA.
Although the lowest levels of the atmosphere are dry, sufficient saturation exists aloft.
(Today and tonight) A cold front tracking across the region this morning will bring cooler, dry, and gusty conditiions to the area today, with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph this afternoon. Much cooler air will remain over the area through tonight, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and overnight lows in the 40s.
A cold front will pass thru all terminals this AM with KHOB/KCNM seeing passage between 08-10z with remaining sites around 11-14z with a N to S passage. (This afternoon through Friday night) Broad upper level troughing continues to progress over the Rockies extending into the Southern Plains. Friday morning a cold front will dive into the area reinforcing cooler temperatures. Below normal temperatures, Friday afternoon, are forecasted to reach the low 70s across much of the CWA.
456 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a potent long wave trough over the northern Rockies and Plains, ahead of a tilted upper level ridge axis extending northeast through the spine of the Appalachians. Closer to home, the mid to upper level cyclone continues to spin over east-central Cuba. At the surface, high pressure centered over the southeastern United States supports gentle northeast to east breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
342 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 - Much Cooler today, highs in the upper 50s to around 60 F.
As a cold front moves through today visibilities could be impacted as some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible from this evening into late tonight. The synoptic pattern includes an high South of TX stretching northeast over the Gulf of Mexico with a mid-level trough digging across the Plains. As the Trough progresses eastward a cold front will surge south reaching our CWA Friday late afternoon/evening and the coast late Friday.
A weak backdoor frontal push is making its way southward along the TX border as an upper trough exits to the east this morning. This observation coupled with weak southerly winds forecast tonight further erodes confidence that overnight lows will reach freezing through the eastern plains.
647 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 An upper level trough extended from the Dakotas south into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. The low and trailing cold front will shift southeast of our forecast area this afternoon as the upper level trough moves eastward through the region. Showers and storms can be expected along this front across southeast MO and southwest IL with scattered post frontal showers for much of the rest of the forecast area due to upper level divergence ahead of the upper level trough. With cloud cover, precipitation, and cold air advection behind the cold front we will not see much of a diurnal rise in temperatures today, except across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL. It will be cooler with below normal high temperatures for a change.
The showers have been steadily dissipating throughout the night as the ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Northern Rockies.
425 AM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Upper trough axis is just east of the Rockies, and an upper ridge is developing over the west coast. Skies will clear and WNW winds will become breezy today as high pressure pushes into the area. The west coast upper ridge will gradually slide eastward over the weekend, resulting in a warming trend and dry weather.
623 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A cold front will move across the region today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to mainly SHV/ELD/MLU/TXK. /Today through Saturday/ Cold front currently across central Oklahoma to race east this morning, eventually moving through the ArkLaTex later today. An approaching upper-trough will allow for sufficient height falls to destabilize the atmosphere across much of the region. Expect much cooler temperatures behind the front with high temperatures dipping from the mid to upper 80s today to the lower 70s on Saturday.
For tonight, showers and possibly a thunderstorm will increase in coverage as a cold front approaches. Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 58 68 47 66 / 30 90 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 58 66 44 64 / 20 80 70 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 57 66 43 64 / 30 90 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 67 40 61 / 10 80 70 0 0 NC.
Currently the base of a high amplitude upper level trough is at the western doorstep of the FA in New Mexico. This trough will continue to traverse the FA through the day today. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal today behind a cold front. With clear skies and low dewpoints in the west and northwest FA, temperatures could very well drop below freezing for the first time this year. By Saturday morning the upper level trough will be well off to the east with upper level ridging building into the area. Clear skies and surface winds returning to the southwest will help daytime highs reach near normal in the lower 70s across the area.
632 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front tracking across the region this morning will bring cooler, dry, and gusty conditiions to the area today, with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph this afternoon. Much cooler air will remain over the area through tonight, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and overnight lows in the 40s.
754 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Fair and warm weather will continue across the region today under the influence of high pressure. A cold front will cross the region on Saturday afternoon and evening.
340 AM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Water vapor satellite this morning shows a gradual drying trend behind the departing trough axis. The associated cloud cover has also kept temperatures a little bit warmer than forecast, but sub-freezing lows are still anticipated near daybreak when clearer skies are expected. Cool weather should continue today with highs in the low 50s for the plains and upper 20s to low 40s for the high country.
343 AM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The longwave mid-level trough which has dictated weather across the region over the past several days finally shifted east of the area overnight. The drying trend will continue today as the longwave trough shifts farther eastward. A ridge of high pressure builds over the West tonight which will help clear any remaining clouds from the area. Strong radiational cooling working with the cold airmass left in the wake of the exiting storm is expected to bring another round of widespread freezing conditions to the lower valleys. The ridge moves overhead on Saturday as the pattern remains progressive with another longwave trough approaching the West Coast. High pressure remains centered over the forecast area at the beginning of the medium range forecast period.
512 AM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Upper ridging will develop across the region heading into the weekend. Large scale subsidence will drive mainly dry weather conditions as well as warmer temperatures.
1050 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase today through part of Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses the region.
Dry weather with warmer daytime temperatures are forecast today through Saturday.
Early this morning a broad upper level trough was translating eastward across the plains. Most of the showers and isolated thunderstorms have shifted east of the area ahead of the cold front which was exiting the southeast counties of the CWA early this morning. There may be enough DCVA ahead of the trough axis for a few showers or sprinkles across the eastern half of the CWA through the mid morning hours but as the H5 trough axis passes over head and to the east, the ascent will shift east of the CWA. Saturday through Saturday night, the upper trough will shift east into the eastern US and the central plains will be under northwest flow aloft through Saturday night.
/issued 326 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ The leading edge of a surface cold front is just now (3:30am) passing through the southern portion of our CWA toward the I20 corridor. As the base of the upper level trough gradually shifts east during the day today, gradient forcing will enhance cold air advection across the region throughout the day. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 60s in most spots, a little warmer across the southern Rolling Plains. Light winds and clear skies will result in enhanced radiational cooling, with some locations seeing temperatures drop to or slightly below freezing, especially across the western South Plains and southern Texas Panhandle. A modest warming trend will commence this weekend as upper level ridging moves overhead, although increases in heights and thicknesses will be slight.
Warming trend continues across the region today with afternoon highs forecast to reach the low 80s.
Currently a line of showers with a few embedded weak thunderstorms is located along or just south of the Interstate 40 corridor associated with a prefrontal trough. WPC QPF may be on the low side at around 0. The weekend and most of the upcoming work week looks much cooler and dry.
A warming trend will continue through Saturday with the lower deserts reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.
and Saturday An upper trough will bring increasing mid level clouds today, and a slight chance of sprinkles or light rain showers in the Fox Valley and lakeshore counties during the midday or early afternoon hours. A west wind will make it feel cooler than it has been lately.
The strongest of the storms should be east of the area by sunrise, but a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may linger for a few hours today as a cold front pushes southeast across the area.
With clearing skies expected tonight, lows will drop into the lower 40s across much of the area, with some upper 30s possible across northwest IL and the usual cool spots.
413 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 An upper level trough extended from the Dakotas south into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. The low and trailing cold front will shift southeast of our forecast area this afternoon as the upper level trough moves eastward through the region. Showers and storms can be expected along this front across southeast MO and southwest IL with scattered post frontal showers for much of the rest of the forecast area due to upper level divergence ahead of the upper level trough. With cloud cover, precipitation, and cold air advection behind the cold front we will not see much of a diurnal rise in temperatures today, except across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL. It will be cooler with below normal high temperatures for a change.
A rather pronounced mid level trough will affect approach the area and move through later today into this evening. There will be some jet enhancement with some left front divergence noted out ahead of the trough with some weak troughing evolving at the surface as well. Tonight through Saturday: Cold advection works in after the forcing shifts east with low level thermal trough setting up later this evening into Saturday morning.
Gusty north to northwesterly winds will develop mid to late morning behind the cold front, dropping off after sunset. The strongest of the storms should be east of the area by sunrise, but a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may linger for a few hours today as a cold front pushes southeast across the area.
644 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 (Today and tonight) Showers/storms will exit eastern/southeast portions of forecast area by daybreak and areas of fog across southern portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas will also decrease as winds pick up and drier air arrives behind cold front.
The synoptic pattern includes an high South of TX stretching northeast over the Gulf of Mexico with a mid-level trough digging across the Plains. As the Trough progresses eastward a cold front will surge south reaching our CWA Friday late afternoon/evening and the coast late Friday.
A pesky upper-level low remains in the vicinity of the Bahamas and has actually shown some signs of retrograding back westward as it merges with a larger mid- latitude trough draped across the central Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad anticyclone entrenches the Eastern Seaboard, with a longwave trough and associated cold front stretching from Texas northeastward to the Ohio Valley. However, the low levels remain relatively moist. The in- house waterspout index registered at 23%, well above climatology for October, certainly indicative that a cumulus cloud line could form late this morning or this afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the Lower Keys.
Thus, mostly dry conditions expected today across ECFL as a high pressure system remains over the local area. Mostly dry conditions expected today, as a high pressure system remains over the local waters.
640 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 - Much Cooler today, highs in the upper 50s to around 60 F.
536 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase today through part of Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses the region.
The fog and stratus should gradually scatter out 14Z-17Z ahead of a cold front. A cold front is located across Northwest Texas. Cooler and drier on Saturday with lows forecast in the 50s and highs in the 70s.
314 AM MST Fri Oct 15 2021 A warming trend will continue through Saturday with the lower deserts reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.
526 AM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The longwave mid-level trough which has dictated weather across the region over the past several days finally shifted east of the area overnight. The drying trend will continue today as the longwave trough shifts farther eastward. A ridge of high pressure builds over the West tonight which will help clear any remaining clouds from the area. Strong radiational cooling working with the cold airmass left in the wake of the exiting storm is expected to bring another round of widespread freezing conditions to the lower valleys. The ridge moves overhead on Saturday as the pattern remains progressive with another longwave trough approaching the West Coast. High pressure remains centered over the forecast area at the beginning of the medium range forecast period.
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 An upper level trough extended from the Dakotas south into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. The low and trailing cold front will shift southeast of our forecast area this afternoon as the upper level trough moves eastward through the region. Showers and storms can be expected along this front across southeast MO and southwest IL with scattered post frontal showers for much of the rest of the forecast area due to upper level divergence ahead of the upper level trough. With cloud cover, precipitation, and cold air advection behind the cold front we will not see much of a diurnal rise in temperatures today, except across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL. It will be cooler with below normal high temperatures for a change.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 68 47 66 46 / 90 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 66 44 64 43 / 80 70 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 66 43 64 43 / 90 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 67 40 61 39 / 80 70 0 0 0.
Gusty north winds diminish around sunset and light winds back westerly by early Saturday morning as the center of the high develops over west Texas. Dewpoint temperatures decrease across western Oklahoma tonight with the advancement of the cooler/drier airmass. While clear skies, light winds, and lows in the mid-30s will promote perhaps some patchy frost growth over parts of northwest Oklahoma Saturday morning, the low dewpoints and westerly downslope flow should prevent significant frost coverage.
With the upper trof pushing off to our east and a large ridge building over the western part of the country, expect quiet weather to become established tonight and continue through the weekend.
125 PM MST Fri Oct 15 2021 High pressure over the region will yield mostly clear skies and quite seasonable temperatures through the weekend though periodically breezy conditions will be common through south-central Arizona.
1038 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The longwave trough is currently pushing through the plains, and the cold front positioned from Lane to Durant. Latest radar loops show light showers skirting northern Oklahoma as the upper trough axis advances across the area. Current temperatures/dewpoint temperatures range from the low 50's/upper 30s (northwest Oklahoma) to the low 70s/upper 60s (southeast Oklahoma), respectively. Thompson (Today and tonight) Showers/storms will exit eastern/southeast portions of forecast area by daybreak and areas of fog across southern portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas will also decrease as winds pick up and drier air arrives behind cold front.
242 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The main story this afternoon and tonight is the high winds between Arlington and Elk Mountain along Interstate 80. Skies are expected to clear overnight as a ridge sets in with weakening winds through the weekend. Upper level ridge is expected to dominate the area through the remainder of the weekend which will provide very mild conditions over the region.
Gusty north winds diminish around sunset and light winds veer westerly by early Saturday morning as the center of the high develops over west Texas. Dewpoint temperatures decrease across western Oklahoma tonight with the advancement of the cooler/drier airmass. While clear skies, light winds, and lows in the mid-30s will promote perhaps some patchy frost growth over parts of northwest Oklahoma Saturday morning, the low dewpoints and westerly downslope flow should prevent significant frost coverage.
216 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The forecast challenge is whether frost/sub-freezing temperatures materialize overnight. As of 2 PM CDT, skies are sunny to partly cloudy, with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s on breezy west winds. Add in the surface winds going light from the west or south-west, and should be able to achieve that elusive "below freezing" low temperature later tonight that has been missing from the past 3 or 4 weeks. Additionally, areas that maybe don't see below freezing temperatures tonight, could end up with some decent frost formation by morning.
It is hard to get calm winds on the high plains. Even when high pressure is very close, it seems that winds stay westerly and this may have something to do with the sloping terrain upward to the west.
Tomorrow, a cold front will work it's way across the region.
A cold front is pushing across the area this afternoon with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along it and extending from Taylor southwestward to Sisterdale to Brackettville as of 230 pm. The cold front should clear out our CWA by 6 or 7 pm this evening.
246 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 WV imagery this aftn shows a trof axis shifting east of our area, with remnant boundary layer moisture contributing to a high-based cu/stratocu field from swrn SD thru much of ern SD and NE. Farther upstream, cirrus is evident from the Pac NW into the nrn Rockies atop a building ridge over the wrn CONUS.
1126 AM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Upper trough axis is just east of the Rockies, and an upper ridge is developing over the west coast. Skies will clear and WNW winds will become breezy today as high pressure pushes into the area. The west coast upper ridge will gradually slide eastward over the weekend, resulting in a warming trend and dry weather.
This afternoon, post-frontal cold air advection is bringing much cooler temperatures to the region so far, with temperatures 5-10 degrees lower than 24 hours ago, along with gusty northerly winds (10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph). There should be some pretty good radiational cooling tonight due to the weaker winds and mostly clear skies, resulting in much cooler lows in the low to mid 40s. We'll also see much cooler highs Saturday in the 68-73 degree range.
Lagging cold front south of the low was well depicted by fine line of showers and isolated storms from Portland to Van Wert. Any severe threat will exist with this line as well any storms ahead of it where temps remain in the lower to middle 70s, with more stable 60 degree temps right behind the line (Van Wert 64 vs Lima 74). Thus far storms have behaved with window of opportunity likely done by 21 or 22Z with focus then shifting to the impacts of second, stronger front and arrival of the main upper level trough that will be deepening and become negatively tilted over the area tonight. 25 inches or so and progressive nature of the trough.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft tonight and Saturday as an upper ridge builds in from the west by Saturday night. Freezing temps across the far western Texas Panhandle and the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle will prompt a Freeze Warning tonight from Midnight through 9 AM Saturday morning. Warmer southerly and southwesterly surface flow expected to commence.
However, as a cold front moves across the area late tonight into early Saturday morning, lower CIGs (to MVFR and some instances of IFR) are expected.
Saturday will remain cool as the trough continues to influence temperatures across the area, however changes are on the way.
211 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Area webcams and most recent GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that the light snow showers have ended across all transportation/populated areas including all the high mountain passes. A 500 mb ridge builds slowly eastward towards Colorado, which reduces the flow aloft significantly and advects warm air from the west- northwest, with 700 mb temperatures warming further into the +4-5 degC range. Surface pressure gradients are weak in proximity to the 500 mb ridge, so winds will be weak just about everywhere.
Cold air aloft within this trough together with daytime heating led to a few showers across the region, so continued the trend from the previous forecast with afternoon chances for rain. Did trend toward the lower end of guidance, and the extra hours of cooling should allow the surface winds to decouple across much of Minnesota, so did issue a frost advisory and freeze warnings for several of these counties. If clouds hang around longer than forecast, and if surface winds don't go calm overnight, then temperatures will be a bit warmer than forecast.
Will keep very low PoPs in place through about 3 PM for the highest passes, but in general the snow is done for most areas. Water vapor satellite this morning shows a gradual drying trend behind the departing trough axis. The associated cloud cover has also kept temperatures a little bit warmer than forecast, but sub-freezing lows are still anticipated near daybreak when clearer skies are expected. Cool weather should continue today with highs in the low 50s for the plains and upper 20s to low 40s for the high country.
/issued 1110 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ A cold front will move through this afternoon, bringing a widespread potential for severe weather to the Mid-South today. Currently a line of showers with a few embedded weak thunderstorms is located along or just south of the Interstate 40 corridor associated with a prefrontal trough. WPC QPF may be on the low side at around 0. The weekend and most of the upcoming work week looks much cooler and dry.
319 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front that currently stretches along the Ohio River southwestward through Arkansas. Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region and will bring temperatures that finally feel like autumn. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s while the lows will drop down into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
222 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 An upper low will continue to move away from the region today and tonight with upper level ridging beginning to move overhead resulting in height rises aloft.