Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S HAS MADE FOR A VERY NICE AFTERNOON ON THIS FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. BASED ON TRAJECTORY METHOD AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS APPROACHING MID 70S AREA WIDE.
516 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 248 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF TEXAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. LIKELY OWING TO SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS E/SE PROGRESSION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED PONDING IN THE LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WHILE THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
630 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
BUT THE UPPER LOW IS FILLING AND DRIFTING INTO EASTERN TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE A MARKED IMPROVEMENT INTO THE NEW WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to New England. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. The other concern is for patchy fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high clouds may push out toward sunrise. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An elongated area of high pressure centered over Kentucky and West Virginia and stretching back through the Mississippi Valley into northeast Texas will continue to drift eastward tonight. The ridge axis will remain over the eastern Ozarks which will bring very light wind to the area along and south of I-70. At any rate, it should be a fairly cool night under the influence of the high pressure.
404 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE AREA AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST INTO SOUTH ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. 13/MH THINGS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS THEY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S BY MID WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON SO LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 3PM. WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.
550 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND INTO TENNESSEE MONDAY. EXPECT POOR CONDIITONS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ESPECIALLY UNTIL THIS LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS.
538 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 /00 TAFS/ THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS BOTH THE STRATUS AND -SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE SLOW EAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. /ISSUED 257 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
946 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
/issued / Upper level low. scattered rain showers were pushing into parts of Southeast Oklahoma and wrapping around the low. The upper level low will continue to exit off to the east overnight tonight with the backside of the low departing the region Monday morning. A slight chance of rain showers will remain possible along and near the Red River through late this evening before the low shifts far enough east. A ridge of high pressure sets up over the Plains for the first half of week with south to southwesterly flow increasing low level moisture over the CWA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE THE RAIN EAST OF THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS IS YET TO EJECT OUT.
915 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY.
944 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY COOLER SPOTS SUCH AS HZY. STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
702 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A WARMING TREND TOWARDS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
WITH THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE KING RANCH MORE FAVORED.
739 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER IS WEAK AT BEST AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING SO MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST EXPOSED RIDGES. EACH OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW AGREEMENT IN MOVING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
629 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEK. IT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN US. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
911 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
1011 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MONDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE RIDGE LIKE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 925/850MB WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S MONDAY.
610 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS AT 03Z YET TO LIFT OUT BUT WILL BEGIN TO DO SO NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WIND SPEEDS NOW FASTER ON EAST SIDE. UPPER LOW SWINGS UP INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WHILE OPENING UP.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
544 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
EVERYTHING FINALLY COMES TO AN END AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF US ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES TRY TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER.
A southern stream upper level low will make its way from the TX/LA Gulf coast will gradually work its way ne into the TN River Valley by Monday/Monday evening.
/ISSUED 404 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ LOW PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE AREA AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST INTO SOUTH ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. 13/MH THINGS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS THEY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S BY MID WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
STILL EXPECT THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, SO STILL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 68 59 72 / 100 90 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 67 56 73 / 100 100 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 65 55 73 / 90 90 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 65 52 71 / 90 100 40 10.
842 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SKIES TO ALSO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW DEPARTS. /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY. UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN TX. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE NORTH. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD EXPERIENCE FOG FORMATION. A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NOAM WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN US.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE SOUTH AND INTO THE AREA. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND AND MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
An upper low across eastern TX, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet, will fill as it lifts northeast into TN Monday afternoon. A more amplified upper level trough will move onshore across the western US on Monday. As a result of the amplified upper level trough moving into the western US, a downstream upper ridge will amplify across the central US.
1037 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A WARMING TREND TOWARDS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS THE NEXT ONE DIGS INTO SRN CA THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY. UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s across the far southwest CWA. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge axis will keep winds very light tonight. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low 70s and light southerly winds.
627 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
/ISSUED 244 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND MOVING TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE/TROUGH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS UPGLIDE DECREASES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HIPRES WL BLD BHD THE TROF AXIS. HAVE INCLUDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING IS. BUT HAVE AN ELY COMPONENT WHICH COULD AID IN FURTHER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUE-WED. WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SO THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
907 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 RADAR LOOPS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS FROM EASTERN MONTANA ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
1042 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
804 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY MONDAY EVENING.
513 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FOG AGAIN LATE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
628 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A WARMING TREND TOWARDS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
THOUGH LEE TROFFING SHOULD HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS THROUGH CA/NV DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEE TROFFING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF 221 (TELLER COUNTY). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS.
EXPECT WARMEST CONDITION ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
503 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY.
708 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
524 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OBSERVATIONS ARE THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS IA THIS AFTERNOON ON AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BUT THE LOW-LEVEL AIR IS QUITE DRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING AND THE WARM FRONT NOW OVER DES MOINES WILL SHIFT TO ABOUT I-90 BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI INTO THE LOW 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH.
AND A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING EAST ACROSS TEXAS AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW TO THE NORTH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS BEGINNING TO DIG OUT SOUTHWEST CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
646 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
/ISSUED / HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEK. IT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN US. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO AND DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK.
332 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WEST COAST TROUGH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MONDAY CAUSING FLOW TO CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH GENERATING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE LEADING TO BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL THUS BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE FROM THIS MORNING.
856 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTH.
AS UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
Winds organize some Mon PM with tighter gradient e of lee trof, but still 10kts or less.
501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s across the far southwest CWA. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge axis will keep winds very light tonight. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low 70s and light southerly winds.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER ERN TX WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT THRU MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ARND 17Z. 07 /ISSUED 248 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF TEXAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. LIKELY OWING TO SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS E/SE PROGRESSION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED PONDING IN THE LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WHILE THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
It will bring the first significant snow event of the season to the High Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere. Main show still expected later tonight into early Monday as trough swings through NorCal. As cooler air wraps into the system, expect snow levels dropping to near pass levels between midnight and daybreak Monday and to around 5000 feet during the day Monday.
154 PM MST THU DEC 3 2015 THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE STRONGER LEE SIDE SFC TROF DEVELOPING AS WELL.
1113 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.
241 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. THE STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCRG SUBSIDENCE AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
133 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ABSOLUTELY DELIGHTFUL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
326 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT PRECIP RESIDES NEAR THE MAINE COAST. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR OVERNIGHT.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
1230 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF VERTICALLY-STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION.