Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
705 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 A storm system tonight through Sunday night will bring snow accumulations for all but the lower elevations of Central Washington. Some of the snow levels were lowered a bit as well as some light accumulation of snow is evident on the higher elevations of the Spokane area roughly above 2000-2200 feet MSL. A cold front will move off the the Cascades just before 06Z and into the eastern TAF sites after 06Z. The lower atmosphere will remain saturated and southwest up-sloping flow into the the KGEG-KCOE corridor and likely KPUW will result in IFR/LIFR conditions after 08z with improvements possible after 18-20z. Lastly winds behind the cold front will come around to southwest with sustained winds 10-20 kts and gust 20-30kts.
651 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE DECREASING AND SNOW WILL START REACHING DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.
748 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 A storm system tonight through Sunday night will bring snow accumulations for all but the lower elevations of Central Washington. A cold front will move off the the Cascades just before 06Z and into the eastern TAF sites after 06Z. The lower atmosphere will remain saturated and southwest up-sloping flow into the the KGEG-KCOE corridor and likely KPUW will result in IFR/LIFR conditions after 08z with improvements possible after 18-20z. Lastly winds behind the cold front will come around to southwest with sustained winds 10-20 kts and gust 20-30kts.
A LEE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE UPPER LOW SPINS OUT IN THE DESERT SW. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-SURFACE RIDGING AND E WINDS AGAIN ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE AREA TODAY.
505 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 313 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/ A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS, AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST, A QLCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET/FETCH INDUCED BY THE DEEP TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS.
647 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
811 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE IS LEADING TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
LATEST MODEL DATA IS INDICATING A LITTLE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
618 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE: There may be some patchy freezing drizzle still over parts over south central Illinois this evening. Recent radar trends have been showing returns over this area that as it moves east, and recent runs of the RAP are showing a drying trend at and above 925mb after 06Z, so will carry patchy freezing drizzle until midnight. Will keep the winter weather advisory going for parts of west central and southwest IL until 6 pm due to patchy freezing drizzle. The threat for patchy freezing drizzle should end later this evening as the low level stratus cloud deck shifts east of the area. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer on Monday, finally getting well above the freezing mark for much of the area after a cold weekend.
THE INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL LEAD TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS SOME 5-10F DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
545 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 /06Z TAFS/ A weak cold front with northwest to north winds of 8 KTS or less will move through West Central Texas this evening. /issued 335 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front has moved through much of the Big Country this afternoon and should move through the Concho Valley/Heartland late this afternoon and then through the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Expect north winds of 5 to 10 mph and slightly cooler temperatures behind the front.
HENCE SPREADING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTN. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
/ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK S/WV WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX IN THE EARLY AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER W TEXAS WHICH SHOULD SWING ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SE TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING SHOW INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO SURGE NORTHWARD. SURFACE FREEZING LINE NOW ROUGHLY FROM ERIN TO LAFAYETTE TO LIVINGSTON TO SPENCER. THIS INDICATES MAIN IMPACT THIS EVENING IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW OR SLEET MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN UPPER CUMBERLAND. AND HAVE REMOVED A FEW MORE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE NOW WELL ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT CLARKSVILLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.
BUT BECOME MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT TYS AND MOR BETWEEN 09-12Z. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 50 39 52 / 50 90 90 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 27 44 37 48 / 60 90 100 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 27 44 36 47 / 80 100 90 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 41 34 43 / 80 90 100 50 TN.
/ISSUED 252 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS TODAY HAS WEDGED IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. STILL ANTICIPATE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED BOTH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS EXPECTING TO SEE ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS /EVEN JUST A GLAZE/. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB INFLUENCE SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AREAS DEEP WITHIN THE WEDGE WILL NOT SEE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR conditions with extensive mid/high clouds expected through 15z TUL/RVS/BVO then mostly clear behind short wave trough.
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW BUT LOWER CIGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 411 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
530 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 AREA IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAMPLE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO OUR WEST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
411 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. UPSTREAM TRENDS POINT TO THIS MAINTAINING EWD THROUGH ABT 03Z BFR DIMINISHING AND XPCD TO BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES/ACCUMULATIONS ACRS NRN IN COUNTIES NWD OF THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID MONDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES, HOWEVER, BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNSATURATED, ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW GRAINS AS OPPOSED TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE, SO NO CHANGE TO PTYPE FCST ATTM.
545 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 /00Z TAFS/ A weak cold front with northwest to north winds of 8 KTS or less will move through West Central Texas this evening. /issued 335 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front has moved through much of the Big Country this afternoon and should move through the Concho Valley/Heartland late this afternoon and then through the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Expect north winds of 5 to 10 mph and slightly cooler temperatures behind the front.
558 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 AREA IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAMPLE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO OUR WEST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC STATES WILL SHIFT NE OVERNIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WINDS INCREASE OVER THE ATLC FROM THE E/ESE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
917 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED NEAR DETROIT LAKES AND WADENA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES UNTIL 12Z AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAX TRACKING OVER NORTHEAST MN. ALTHOUGH FLURRIES/DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 500HPA TEMPS OF NEGATIVE 30C.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW.
602 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 /00Z TAFS/ A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW COUNTIES WITH WINDS ACROSS THE DFW AREA AIRPORTS GENERALLY VARIABLE 5 KTS OR LESS. TIMING THE COLD FRONT AND SWITCH TO NORTH FLOW A LITTLE TRICKY.
INTERESTING EVOLUTION OF WINTER WEATHER EVENT HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING AS SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS SAGGED BACK SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DUE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA. 02Z HRRR AND 00Z NAM INSIST FREEZING LINE WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AND THIS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 30S AT CKV AND INTO SOUTHERN KY. ALTHOUGH MOST OBS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL PLATEAU COUNTIES. KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING FOR PUTNAM/WHITE/CUMBERLAND/VAN BUREN AS SOME AREAS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT CLARKSVILLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.
525 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 AREA IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAMPLE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO OUR WEST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
PUBLIC REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOMINATE IN MANY AREAS IN LAKES COUNTRY AND IN FARGO.
PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD WARM FRONT STILL OVER OUR AREA. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER EXCEPT IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS LAREDO AND COTULLA (IF THE MOISTURE GETS BACK THAT FAR WEST AND TEMPERATURES COOL) AND AS FAR EAST AS VICTORIA (IF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH/SHIFT EAST TOWARD MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT (TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN A FEW AREAS BUT THINK THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY 40S TONIGHT).
A RIDGE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA LATE MONDAY. BECOMING LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF FLORIDA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THE CULPRIT AND WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL HEAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 44 DEGREES. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 44 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
Added fog to much of the area, most notably in counties where SREF guidance has the highest fog chances east of a Osceola to Cassville line. Freezing drizzle will remain possible early this evening across far south-central Missouri, but the passage of an 850 mb front should shut that potential down rather quickly. We have gone on the high side of temperature guidance for overnight lows as we are expecting abundant mid and high level cloud cover.
510 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 LIGHT WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
TWEAKED THE LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT'LL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
639 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY CAUSING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAD ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID MONDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES, HOWEVER, BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNSATURATED, ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW GRAINS AS OPPOSED TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE, SO NO CHANGE TO PTYPE FCST ATTM.
SINCE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH EARLY TO MID FRIDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO DECORAH IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
/ISSUED 257 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS CAUSING A CHANCE OR LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY DAY IN STORE AND THE CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FIRST IS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB THERMAL TROUGH NOSING INTO NORTHWEST UT. FURTHER SOUTH AN UPPER LOW IS FORMING OVER NORTHWEST AZ WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. ALONG WITH CEILINGS BRIEFLY REDUCED TO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE.
655 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. AND WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AND AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE.
A CIRCULATING CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVABLE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW CENTER IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MODEL FORECASTS TAKE IT TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
720 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE E ACROSS ERN AZ/NRN MX AND INTO NM. DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER W TX FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E INTO NCNTRL TX/OK BY AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ WEAK UPPER RIDGING JUST OFF TO OUR WEST HAS RESULTED IN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA WIDE. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO PIVOT EWD FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS TX AND OK.
947 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A COOL WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD ACCOMPANY A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
1013 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN UTAH/AZ NOW TRACKING EWD. INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAIN DRY WITH 19Z OBS ACROSS THE FCST AREA SHOWING DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. 12Z WRF-NAM NOW CLOSING THIS TROUGH MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OR THE 12Z GFS AND ECM.
909 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
/issued / Upper low, currently moving over the Desert Southwest, will continue an eastward progression tonight into Friday.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND BPT AND LCH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS GETTING ORGANIZED IN WEST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
730 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
1019 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY PUSHING ANY REMAINING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON.
1052 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
657 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW STRATUS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECTING PRECIP TO START BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND BPT AND LCH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS GETTING ORGANIZED IN WEST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
1236 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ONCE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES AND THE HIGH BASED STRATOCU CLEARS OUT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH LIGHT NRLY FLOW BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN-CTRL FLORIDA GRADUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER/STRONGER HIGH WELL TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE STRATUS SHOULD BE GONE BUT ALREADY ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN H500 TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER BACK ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
1030 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING OF THIS IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GFS AND NAM WILL LEAN TOWARDS DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING WHILE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MET AND MAV SUGGESTS.
632 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LARGE STRETCH OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW WILL ALSO LIFT OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TEMPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE WEST.
Scattered showers are gradually diminishing this evening across the eastern half of the forecast area as a cold front pushes through the region. With limited support from a weakening upper trough, expect the activity to continue to wane overnight.
741 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
934 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO TO THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 65 46 64 / 0 0 0 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 62 42 67 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 61 43 66 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 59 38 65 / 0 0 0 10.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK, SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROF WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.
524 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015 THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER UT TODAY AS ENERGY SPLITS INTO AZ OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CO/UT BORDER SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF AZ. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY OVER OUR CWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO EASTERN UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PROBABLY THIS IS DUE TO TODAY/S DRYING GUSTY NW TO WEST WINDS AND THE MILDNESS WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AIMED TOWARDS NW WA THIS EVENING WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN TIER ZONES FRIDAY MORNING WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
1048 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING ROUGHLY ALONG AN ALBANY TO MACON LINE. /ISSUED 257 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS CAUSING A CHANCE OR LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY DAY IN STORE AND THE CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
1147 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
946 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL TAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
818 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 OVERALL QUIET FCST TONIGHT AS FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY USHERED IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS AND A SFC RIDGING OVER/N OF THE REGION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN E/NE MS TONIGHT. OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.