Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will be situated southeast of the region this evening. A low pressure system will begin to approach the area late tonight into the day on Monday bringing precipitation chances to the region.
Otherwise, the mid to upper level low over the Big Bend will move northeast through northwest Texas this evening and into eastern Oklahoma by Monday morning. Short wave trough moving across northern Coahuila will move into south central Texas this evening. Winds will back to southwest and south Monday night with lows slightly warmer than tonight.
Line of thunderstorms ahead of the low extends from near Shreveport to Houston at 3 pm with scattered strong to severe storms in advance of that line across the western half of Louisiana. Upper low over Texas appears to be about to take on a negative tilt, which may cause the best divergence to be somewhat north of earlier expectations.
300 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 As of Sunday afternoon a vigorous mid-level trough was over southwestern Texas. A few showers are possible during the evening hours, as large scale ascent associated with the mid-level trough approaches the area, mainly along and southeast the KS Turnpike.
536 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Dry and quiet conditions continue through tonight as a weak ridge of high pressure remains in place. As far as precipitation type goes for this system, rain will likely be the main precipitation type as temperatures remain well above freezing for most of Monday (upper 40s and 50s). There is a slight chance of some snow across the Pine Ridge region early on Monday morning, though, as temperatures drop to near freezing.
Temperatures will only be slightly cooler behind the front Monday afternoon, with highs ranging from the middle 50s in Colorado to the middle 60s in central Kansas. Monday the weak cold front moves over the northwest half of the forecast area. This will cause temperatures to be cooler behind the front.
High pressure shifting east of the region today should allow for milder conditions to move into the forecast area. In addition, things should remain rainfree until low pressure over the southeast TX coast begins to lift north into the Southern Plains tonight. This low is now progged to lift farther north/west as compared to yesterday at this time. Surface front will move through early Monday night as the low lifts northeast into the southern Great Lakes region.
These waves will cross the area and Monday as an upper trough redevelops across the Four Corners region late Monday into Monday night.
300 PM MST Sun Apr 2 2017 A high pressure system over the region will weaken tonight as another mostly dry cold front approaches the region.
The cyclone heading out of the southern Plains tonight is now forecast to track much farther north than it was in yesterday's guidance--into northern Illinois by late Monday. In contrast to the Monday system, the following cyclone set to arrive mid-week is now forecast to track a little farther south (especially by the ECMWF). Was hesitant to go along with the southward shift as guidance took a last minute northward jog in the tracks of a couple of the previous cyclones, and appears to be doing the same thing with the Monday system. Quieter weather will return late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as ridging shifts over the area.
Strong mid level shear in place as the upper low over northeast Mexico moves northeast into northwest Texas later today and mid-upper level jet streak moves across south-central Texas.
Daytime highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler for locations north of I-70; between 5 and 10 degrees cooler from this afternoon's highs. Tomorrow afternoon a more substantial upper level trough will work its way through the area, bringing with it the potential for significant mountain snowfall and valley rain.
As the trough axis crosses the mountains, the high res models have continued to push rain showers east of the Rockies across the Plains. A weak cold front will move south from Wyoming late morning/midday with gusty northwest winds across northeast Colorado. This front, combined with cold advection at 700 mb (3-5 degC drop from Sunday) and cloud cover will hold temps in the low to mid 50s across the Plains. Mountains will also be 5-8 degF cooler than Sunday. Southwesterly flow aloft is over the CWA Monday night ahead of the next approaching upper trough.
Much of the lower elevations along the I25 corridor look like they will achieve advisory criteria. Mon afternoon a new upper level trof will move into srn UT and nrn AZ. In the afternoon hours pcpn will also spread across the high valley and the eastern mtns. The highest CAPE values are forecast to be over southern portions of the forecast area in the afternoon, but will put isold thunder in the afternoon forecast for all of the forecast area.
300 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight. Low pressure will track into the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night.
The low pressure over TX currently creating severe weather in that area will start to track into southern MO tonight creating some isentropic lift and a band of showers that will push through early Monday around rush hour. This wrap around precipitation on the NW side of the low will stall over the region and slowly track to the east Monday afternoon bringing a chance for more moderate rain over the KC metro area and isolated elevated non- severe thunderstorms which will move out of the area by Monday evening.
Temperatures on Monday should reach the 60s, but northwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph will make it feel a bit cooler.
LCH 12z sounding does show a blend of stg instability and very high low lvl shear, which has translated nwd with advancing warm front.
The passage of the main upper level low across West Central Texas this afternoon should bring a return of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms for a few hours this afternoon and evening. VFR skies will follow the upper low for later tonight. A second round of convection is likely later today, as the upper level low itself moves across the area. Otherwise, much cooler today behind a cold front that has cleared the southern counties as of 08Z.
The lower levels around 925mb are quite a bit warmer than yesterday ahead of the frontal boundary. Most models are showing the front coming through PIR up to ABR around 00Z this evening, so the thermal ridge will be right in that area by late afternoon during peak heating. Raised highs a few degrees today and sided towards the higher end of available guidance. A bit cooler temperatures expected on Monday behind the frontal boundary, but northern areas of the CWA will likely be warmer than southern areas due to more clouds and precip chances down that way.
Scattered precip continues over much of the area as moisture/warm air continues to push northeast of the main upper low over the Southern Rockies. Short-range solutions continue this trend into the morning hours, with upper wave making its way into the Pacific Northwest giving the broad troughing over the Central and Southern Rockies a push east, allowing some drier air work into western portions of the CWA. The next main area of precip looks to develop late in the night as the upper low to the southwest swings northeast with good synoptic-scale forcing ensuing still in a very moist troposphere. Have increased PoPs in mainly eastern areas ahead of this low. On Monday, the center of the upper trough will lift northeast and pass over extreme southeast KS.
" Rain chances will end west to east as the night progresses with increasingly vertically stacked low pressure tracking northeast across north Texas into Oklahoma advancing a cold front across the area.
142 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will bring milder conditions today.
235 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure slides east tonight.
Lows in the Rogue Valley will be in the lower to mid 30s and frost is possible at many locations outside Medford. High pressure will build into the forecast area Monday for another day of sunny sky and warmer temperature.
Monday we will have north/northeast low level flow from high pressure in Canada, with a subtle wave that will cross southern South Dakota. As for temperatures, cloud cover and cooler mid level air will result in readings into the 50s.
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather today. A series of crossing low pressure areas will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. Highs should average just above seasonal levels and increased warm air and moisture advection will bring additional cloud coverage and warmer temperatures overnight. Temperatures near 10 degrees above normal are expected Monday as this continues as WAA continues with rain chances increasing mid-afternoon through the night as low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes.
confidence is high Low pressure is currently situated over the Southern Plains beneath a deep cutoff low positioned over central/west Texas. The mid- level warm front will also surge into the CWA around 12z Mon as well.
1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening is highlighted by a closed low over western New Mexico and eastern Arizona with a trough extending south into northern Mexico. East of the low, a low amplitude ridge extended from southern Alabama into Iowa. West of the trough, low amplitude ridging extended from central California into southern Idaho. Readings as of 3 AM CDT were generally in the lower 40s with the exception of Ogallala and Imperial which were in the upper 30s. That being said, limited highs to the lower 60s today.
/issued 332 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/ Strong upper low over Northern Mexico this morning will move across the region today with center passing over the Big Bend. tonight this low will lift across North TX passing into OK by morning.
Isentropic upglide over a weak warm front will continue to support rain showers across central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The southern stream trough will continue to deepen overnight and lift northeastward into the middle Mississippi River Valley by late Monday afternoon.
324 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather today. A series of crossing low pressure areas will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. High pressure centered over the area this afternoon will slide eastward this evening. This will mean return flow around the back side of the high and ahead of the next system to affect the area should keep temperatures above the levels we dropped to last night. Fries Temperatures near 10 degrees above normal are expected Monday as this continues as WAA continues with rain chances increasing mid-afternoon through the night as low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes.
100 PM PDT Sun Apr 2 2017 A low pressure trough will swing southeast across the Great Basin on Monday, ramping up onshore flow and the marine layer across southern California. Westerly winds will become gusty over the mountains and deserts, and it will be cooler.
Tonight: Scattered showers this evening will transition to a more widespread rain situation later tonight, as gradually deepening low pressure pulls out of north TX and into far sw MO by sunrise. Increasing moisture throughout the column and stronger low level moisture transport (warm conveyor belt) ahead of the cyclone will allow for likely pops. Monday: Soaking rains expected as the deepening cyclone tracks to central IL later in the day with excellent moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the severe threat appears to be well to our south where the higher instability will exist. Monday night: Eventually the cyclone (987 mb) tracks to the "thumb" region of lower MI, gradually ending the rainfall from southwest to northeast across the cwa.
High pressure will provide dry and mild weather to central Indiana today.
338 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 A large shield of showers with embedded thunderstorms being noted across the Southern Plains ahead of a deepening upper low over the TX panhandle. and will maintain slightly higher POPs over the west late tonight into early Monday closer to the upper low.
Meanwhile an upper level low/trough system continues to develop over the Canadian Rockies. The aforementioned upper level system continues to develop/expand and merges with a southern stream low developing in the base of the overall longwave trough system over the Rockies. This rather slow- moving system will exit to our east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as one large very strong upper level low pressure system.
Upstream dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s was observed across the central and southern Louisiana which was associated with a northward moving warm frontal boundary. As far as temperatures are concern lows will be in the 60s and highs on Monday will be in the middle 70s to the lower 80s. /17/ Monday night through Sunday: By Monday evening the closed low and mid level trough axis will shift farther northeast of our region leaving zonal flow across our region. This will be brief though as our winds aloft will begin backing to the southwest by morning ahead of another closed low dropping over the southern plains.
Patchy freezing drizzle and fog will remain possible across the James Valley through the afternoon. Several weak upper lows meandering through the Northern Plains over the next 24 hours will result in little to no ventilation through the atmospheric column. This allows shallow cool air to create favorable conditions for fog and the lack of seeder/feeder ice crystals will support drizzle/freezing drizzle. patchy freezing drizzle will be common across the much of the central and eastern sections. Expect little change in temperature today and tonight beneath the low clouds and fog. Sunday will see a slow end to the thermal profiles supporting the fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle as the flow aloft becomes more westerly with the upper lows exit.
/Issued 147 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017/ Models in better agreement at the start of the period with the closed upper low vicinity of the TN valley.
850-700 mb frontogenesis should maximize along the deformation zone this evening through the very early morning hours Sunday and help wrap precip around the low with a focus along the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. All indications point to the primary precip type being rain as dew points (and hence web bulb temp) will struggle to fall to the freezing mark at the surface for most of the area with the main exception being the northwestern zones where wet bulb temps should drop to freezing prior to precip ending and thus snow should mix in mainly between 9 PM and 3 AM tonight.
Sunday has the best chance of snow in the lower elevations but most of the precipitation will be over by the time the colder air moves into the forecast area.
201 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to clearing skies and good mixing. Sunday the sky will clear as an upper level ridge begins to build onto the Plains. Highs will be similar to today due to WAA from the approaching ridge.
Very damp and mild pattern will persist through tomorrow as a stacked but unimpressive low pressure system slowly shifts northeast across the area overnight through Sunday morning. In northwest portions, where overnight temperatures will drop to around freezing, some of the precipitation may come as freezing drizzle and could present icing problems around daybreak tomorrow morning.
A strong upper level impulse ahead of the main trough will rotate into the area tonight, with both a low level jet intensifying across the area and the upper level jet nosing into the area from west. The highest threat area will be across south Central Alabama, generally near and south of the US Highway 80/I-85 corridor, but will also be contingent on how far north the warm front lifts. There is a low chance of another wave of storms across the southeast tomorrow afternoon, but that is dependent on how storms evolve overnight and how/if the airmass can recover ahead of another upper level jet expected to move across that area in advance of the approaching upper level trough.
A weak disturbance will move northeastward into prevailing high pressure, and provide just a chance of patchy drizzle today into tonight. Overnight lows in the 30s limited by cloud cover and dewpoints in the low 30s, while max temps Sunday similar to today in the upper 30s to low 40s. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region Sunday night.
No significant changes were needed with the morning update as temperatures are on track to top out warmer than normal and rain chances still look to hold off in the southwest until late afternoon.
343 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase across our area into the evening hours as a compact but potent upper low currently over eastern New Mexico moves rapidly east towards our area. Thunder chances will decrease later tonight as steadier rain develops across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to the north of the upper low track.
With the westerly/drying flow, the stratus will continue to retreat with temperatures warming to around 45 near SD where there are lingering clouds to the lower 50s near the KS border. Manual 00z upper-air analysis and early-morning water vapor imagery indicate the presence of a high-amplitude wave pattern over the lower 48 states. In the low levels, a moist air mass which has contributed to areas of dense fog and drizzle/rain showers early this morning will become displaced by a drier boundary-layer advecting into the the mid MO Valley from the west and northwest.
High pressure, marred only by residual morning and increasing high cloudiness, will maintain dry and warm conditions today. Model depictions of the cutoff low pressure set to dig toward the Upper Ohio Region have deviated from previous runs with a more westward track of the center. An inch to inch and a half is anticipated for the early week with limitations imposed by low pressure progression and mid level dry slotting.
223 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Weak ridging to neutral flow will persist through the period with dry wx. Western CONUS troughing will promote local ridging Sunday night, with gusty sw flow developing over NE WY and portions of the Black Hills.
Winds back more towards the south tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Very windy conditions expected as the cold front pushing through the region Sunday morning. Strong northwesterly winds kick in with sustained winds in the mid/upper-20 knot range with gusts possibly into the lower-40 knots closer to the coast.
234 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Have removed several lower elevation zones from the winter storm products including most of SE Utah, the Paradox Valley area and the Colorado river valley from Grand Junction to Avon as the best push of precipitation moves northeast of these areas and temps have risen to or above freezing, changing much of the precip to rain. Satellite imagery and upper analysis show the 500 mb trough to be splitting as it moves over northern Colorado. The break between storms is well defined with dry ridging developing over the western Great Basin.
Developing cyclone currently advancing east into the south plains will be the main player for this afternoon and tonight. a strong upper level trough was poised to move into Texas and Oklahoma this evening resulting in moisture and instability returning to our area late this afternoon into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening along and ahead of the cold front tonight. Northwest winds are expected to be brisk on the back side of the low.
Light onshore flow and even warmer and more humid air moving northward across southern Lake Michigan will continue to generate dense fog. This will eventually send a warm front into the region, resulting in mild temperatures this afternoon and shunting rain chances to our north.
Winds are expected to increase Sunday, which should finally kick out the fog and lift some of the lowest cloud ceilings.
Low pops will linger into early Sunday over Southeast KS before large-scale forcing for subsidence arrives across the area in the wake of the trough bringing a rapid demise to any lingering light rain showers. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the central Conus early in the week supporting above normal temperatures across the area.
Plenty of sunshine within a south trajectory will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s with the highest temperatures at the Marathon ASOS. However, with the close proximity of the ridge axis, expect the wind surge to be brief before a steady and prolong wind increase begins late tonight and Sunday.
1026 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 CWA currently between systems with an upper low drifting north over North Dakota and a negatively-tilted upper trough moving over the southwestern CONUS. Narrow area of clear skies currently over the CWA but mid/high clouds starting to increase from the southwest in association with the southwestern upper trough. Mainly dry conditions return for a time later tonight through Sunday as an upper ridge amplifies and moves across the Rocky mtns. Snow showers will then increase over the far western parts of the CWA Sunday night as the upper ridge axis moves east over the plains and increasingly moist southwesterly flow sets up.
327 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Surface pressure gradient has been tightening this afternoon in response to an approaching upper level low exiting the Four Corners. The low is progged to quickly pass over the TX Panhandle this evening, relaxing the winds slightly, however, as the low pulls away to the east, winds will begin to pick up once again as a cold front is dragged through the forecast area. As for overnight precipitation, models continue to lean towards moisture wrapping around the backside of this low and producing at least a small amount of precip across our northern zones. Surface temperatures will certainly be warm enough, but the freezing level has risen significantly across several models to around three or four thousand (or more) feet above the ground.
This second area is associated with the upper low over northern NM that is expected to move quickly southeast along the Red River early Sunday.
402 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region tonight.
Convection to exit the region to the east after 22/08Z but may return early Sunday morning around the back side of the upper low pressure system that moves along the Red River Valley Region.
1103 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 High pressure will move east of the area today. A weak cold front will cross the region tonight.
Model depictions of the cutoff low pressure set to dig toward the Upper Ohio Region have deviated from previous days solutions with a more westward track of the center. An inch to inch and a half is anticipated for the early week with limitations imposed by low pressure progression and mid level dry slotting.
This, as well as strong winds rounding the base of the trough have resulted in a windy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Aided by a little subsidence on the backside of the trough, we see no reason to discontinue wind warnings/advisories as they currently lay, as winds look to saty up all night. In fact, models suggest the strongest winds rounding the base of the trough will be over the SW zones at 12Z Sunday, so some warnings/advisories SW and S will need to be extended into Sunday. Once the trough clears the region, grids look dry into the extended.
The precipitation shield in the nw quad of the low is expected to remain se of WI. However the surface pressure gradient is expected to tighten up a bit and this will result in an increased northerly wind component and cooler though still above normal temperatures.