Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the upstream trough begins to dig slightly southeast by early Saturday morning, ascent should remain over areas along the ND/SD border. A few diurnally driven showers are possible mainly west of the Highway 83 corridor Saturday afternoon. An upper level ridge builds over the area in the wake of the exiting SD upper wave, bringing warming temperatures to start the week.
1001 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 A cold front will move southeast into the region this afternoon.
1033 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Currently - A broad disorganized area of low pressure is centered near the southeastern South Florida coast. Meanwhile, a weakening, but defined trough aloft extends down Florida and the Bahamas. Temperatures are broadly in the upper 70s with dew point temperatures in the lower 70s. The continued proximity of the lower level, the weak troughing aloft will mean shower, the presence of some CAPE with no inhibition suggests that a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will remain possible.
932 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Quiet/unseasonably warm conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this late Fri evening, as a weak cold front gradually approaches from the NW. Little change is xpcted in the seasonably warm pattern into the early morning period Sat, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s for most spots. Kept only 20 pop in the forecast given better lift along an approaching cold front will remain over Texas and Arkansas much of the day. Models continue to be slow moving with the front as the upper low over Texas phases with it.
736 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this evening with a crossing cold front. Mainly dry weather returns Saturday under building high pressure. Warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. A lingering, weakening cold front will allow for continued isolated showers through the day on Saturday South of PA. Despite the Friday cold frontal passage, above normal temperature is expected.
The short period of warm and dry conditions ends tomorrow as an approaching upper low approaches offshore, returning a cool and wet pattern to the region.
652 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Low pressure over upstate New York will track across southern New Hampshire and the southern tip of Maine spawning widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening. Along and south of the low track will be the area most likely to see thunderstorms containing large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The low will race offshore tonight with high pressure and drier air to follow for Saturday and Saturday night.
Cloud cover should keep afternoon highs on Saturday in the low 80s along the coast. (modified previous discussion) Hazardous boating conditions continue across all local waters through at least Saturday afternoon as low pressure lifts NE toward the NW Bahamas.
945 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Latest surface analysis showed that the cold front has moved to the Missouri/Arkansas border with light winds across the CWA. It will become a warm front and begin to slowly lift northward towards the forecast area late tonight. On Saturday the warm front will slide northward through the region in response to the approaching upper level system from the west and backing flow aloft. Expect scattered showers and a few storms during the morning hours with this boundary, then focus then shifts to warm sector south of the warm front. Saturday night, main cold front will begin to slide through region with showers and thunderstorms likely across the region. Highs on Saturday will be warmer, in the mid 70s to low 80s, then lows Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
654 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 An upper low pressure system will develop over Texas Saturday and move through Arkansas this weekend.
High clouds and warmer Saturday as an upper ridge comes in from the west.
The remainder of the forecast remains on track as the main upper level low passes through the area tonight through Saturday night and produces moderate to heavy rainfall. An initial lead short wave trough in western sd this afternoon was bringing showers and storms which were moving into central sd. Otherwise, the main upper level low pressure area will be moving across the region later tonight through Saturday night with rain overspreading most of the region by Saturday morning.
Upper low over MT with showers spreading into northeastern WY ahead of it. Saturday Through Friday Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected again on Saturday as the upper low slowly crosses the forecast area. The precipitation chances will end early on Saturday evening as the upper low moves off to the east and an upper ridge builds over the area from the west.
A few shallow cumulus also exists along and near the higher terrain, mostly from the Cascades eastward. The short period of warm and dry conditions ends tomorrow as an approaching upper low approaches offshore, returning a cool and wet pattern to the region.
649 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 A cold front will stall out in the Ohio Valley tonight and then return northward on Saturday ahead of a low pressure system that will be approaching along the boundary.
928 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Showers are expected tonight with a crossing cold front. Mainly dry weather returns Saturday under building high pressure. Warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. A lingering, weakening cold front will allow for continued isolated showers through the day on Saturday South of PA. Despite the Friday cold frontal passage, above normal temperature is expected.
In fact, a 4 mb/hr pressure rise occurred at the Levelland WTM site, with a 20 percent increase in relative humidity, a ~20 mph increase in surface wind, a 4 deg F drop in temperature, and a 4 deg F rise in the dew point (this is a classic resemblance of the highly localized mesoscale effects associated with undular bores!). Weak, mid-level ridging will build into the area this evening with a ripple/perturbation forecast to rotate over the CWA during this time. Sincavage Upper level lows around 95W will slowly move eastward. Upper level flow will become increasingly northerly on Sunday as a high pressure ridge moves into the central CONUS.
352 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected today with building high pressure, though isolated showers will be possible south of Pennsylvania.
Ridging persists across the southern Appalachians keeping area convection free. VFR conditions forecast for CHA and TYS through the period as high pressure remains in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 63 87 65 80 / 10 0 20 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 86 65 79 / 10 0 20 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 86 61 86 64 78 / 10 0 20 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 58 84 61 77 / 20 0 30 30 80.
333 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Weak high pressure currently across the CWA. For the short term portion of the forecast, the CWA will be situated between two systems: the tropical low off the southeast coast and the low pressure/frontal system currently west of the Mississippi River Valley. As the tropical low moves up the southeast coast of the US, stronger high pressure wedging will build in from the northeast across much of GA and should be at it's strongest overnight. In the meantime, the low pressure/frontal system out west will cross the Mississippi River and the wedge across much of the state will begin to erode.
A building ridge of high pressure will result in rising afternoon temperatures this weekend.
Tonight, an upper low over the lower MS Valley region, with a second evolving over the Upper Midwest will work in tandem to pull more moisture north ahead of an approaching surface cold front.
(Today and tonight) The upper trough over the southern Plains will slowly move east today with showers and storms likely, especially in the southeast.
315 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Today, the Ohio Valley sits in front of an upper trough with a low pressure system spinning over eastern Texas. Running along the Ohio River lies a front extending east of the low system. The higher temperatures will be near Bowling Green. Tonight, the low pressure system will begin sliding north with upper flow.
147 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Canadian high pressure passing to our north will guarantee a nice start to the weekend. then conditions will deteriorate Sunday as a warm front will extend across the region.
Drier air aloft is moving in as well as low pressure exits and a brief short wave ridge moves in.
A large pool of low-level moisture has been pushed south of Iowa but is ready to return once warm air advection commences tonight and advance of the amplifying upper trough. A digging upper trough is forecast to develop a closed 500 mb low over SD by 00Z Sunday. As for severe weather, the deep shear appears favorable for organized storms and in the vcnty of the warm front, decent low-level shear due to backing near the boundary.
An upper low pressure system will develop over Texas Saturday and move through Arkansas this weekend. A 500mb trough is approaching from the west, with a low level jet over OK. As the upper trough deepens and approaches the state by Sat morning and low level flow continues to carry warm, moist, Gulf air into the region, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the state. This will continue Saturday through the overnight hours, as a cold front approaches from the west early Sunday morning.
A humid airmass is in place across the region with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s and temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Models indicate a mid-level trough over East Texas will gradually move northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Drier air aloft is moving in as well as low pressure exits and a brief short wave ridge moves in. JW 00Z TAFS: Convection is expected north and east of a line from KOMK to KLWS with isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
351 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 8Z sfc map shows low pressure centered across southwest Kansas near the Ok border. The sfc flow will remain weak ESE until the cold front pushes through after 00z.
915 PM PDT Fri May 15 2020 Dry, seasonal weather is on tap this weekend as a weak ridge drifts overhead.
A closed upper low over Central Texas will move slowly northeast into the Arklatex region by this evening.
The remainder of the forecast remains on track as the main upper level low passes through the area tonight through Saturday night and produces moderate to heavy rainfall. An initial lead short wave trough in western sd this afternoon was bringing showers and storms which were moving into central sd. Otherwise, the main upper level low pressure area will be moving across the region later tonight through Saturday night with rain overspreading most of the region by Saturday morning. Sunday starts a period of dry and warmer weather for us as upper ridging aloft builds over the midwest.
400 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 The main focus in this period will be surrounding an upper level low pressure system that will slowly move across the region today into tomorrow. Shower & some thundershower activity continues to develop across portions of central and western South Dakota early this morning in response to ejecting s/w energy from upper low positioned across SE MT. Upper low will slowly work east- southeast today across western & central SD. Looks like best forcing with this system overspreads the area from mid-late morning through this evening as this warmer and more moist airmass lifts northward over the region. Temperatures do modify for the latter half of the weekend as the rain system pulls away and a ridge begins to build across the western Dakotas.
1133 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Canadian high pressure passing to our north will guarantee a nice start to the weekend. then conditions will deteriorate Sunday as a warm front will extend across the region.
While severe weather is unlikely a few funnel clouds will be possible if the 925mb to near surface warm front can lift far enough north. Instability very weak but with plenty of low level directional shear near this boundary some spin ups will be possible under this strong upper level low. The freezing level looks to be about 9000 to 10000 feet so some small hail will be possible with CAPE values from about 250 to 500 J/kg. Sunday will be a breezy day as low pressure wraps up to the east.
The region is between a ridge that stretches from the Atlantic, an area of low pressure over the central plains, and a cold front that stretches from the Ozarks to New England.
An area of low pressure is just offshore of the SE FL coast this morning, with 80 percent chance of tropical development through the next 48 hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms will stream into the area from the east as this low lifts to the NE through the day. The low then continues to lift NE away from the area tonight and Sunday pulling some drier air down over the area on the back side of the system with winds shifting from the NE to the W through Sunday.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 60s to lower 70s. On Saturday, a deepening low pressure system will move towards the area from Northern Plains. As the low pressure area moves through the region on Saturday night, the 850 mb moisture transport will gradually increase and preciptable water values will climb into the 1 to 1. On Sunday, the low pressure area area will move east of the area. This high will provide a prolonged dry stretch. Even though the warmest temperatures will be west of the area, temperatures will gradually warm from the 70s into the lower and mid-80s. Low pressure developing over the Central Plains will lift towards the area Saturday afternoon, with low level moisture increasing just out ahead.
219 AM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over southeast MT with upper ridge over the far western CONUS. At the surface, low is centered over the NEB panhandle with inverted trof extending northeast into southwest/south central SD, coinciding well with the most concentrated area of precip. Upper low advances slowly southeast across western/central SD today.
Expect an increase in activity late this afternoon and early this evening as the trough closes on the area and the region reaches peak heating. Models depicted a shallow transitory ridge over the region Saturday through Saturday night and, as a result, eastern Utah and western Colorado should be quiet with respect to both wind and precipitation. Q-vectors suggested downward vertical motion on Sunday which will limit sky cover supporting warmer and drier conditions.
Models didn't have a good handle on the low clouds hanging on this morning, but areas that cleared out warmed up quickly. Sunday looks to dry out as ridging fills in and strengthens. The beginning of the workweek looks to remain dry as the high sits overhead. Meanwhile, a closed low digs down the western coastline.
A disorganized tropical system offshore of the southeast Florida east coast will lift north northeastward, while a western Atlantic ridge axis noses westward into the Straits of Florida.
Quiet/unseasonably warm conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this late Fri evening, as a weak cold front gradually approaches from the NW. Little change is xpcted in the seasonably warm pattern into the early morning period Sat, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s for most spots. Kept only 20 pop in the forecast given better lift along an approaching cold front will remain over Texas and Arkansas much of the day. Models continue to be slow moving with the front as the upper low over Texas phases with it.
1140 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Showers will exit the area overnight with a crossing cold front. Mainly dry weather returns Saturday under building high pressure. Warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. A lingering, weakening cold front will allow for continued isolated showers through the day on Saturday South of PA.
The local area will remain under the influence of narrow high pressure between a subtropical low in the western Atlantic and an extra-tropical low pressure system over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Hot and dry conditions will continue with highs reaching the low upper 80s to low 90s.
However, no radar returns on the lowest radar scans, tells us that all the precip here on the back side is evaporating before reaching the surface. Can't completely rule out a stay shower on the backside of the upper low, but chances were really too low to mention at this time. Highs today will top out in the 80s to near 90s degrees with the higher values in the west. Some of the high-res models are showing a better potential of some showers on the backside of the trough tonight and will mention a 20 PoP for the eastern and northern area. Will keep the low chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday with highs in the 80s and 90s once again.
Upper low over MT with showers spreading into northeastern WY ahead of it.
High pressure remains off to our east but shifts slightly westward today and comes onshore into the Carolinas. This westward shift will result in calmer winds across the area today compared to yesterday as we will be closer to the center of the high. Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer today and range from the lower to mid 80s. Weak cold front that remains to our north across KY/Ohio River will begin to lift northward again this afternoon. Slight chance POP for isolated showers and storms in place across portions of the northern Cumberland Plateau, southwest VA, northeast TN, and the high terrain of the eastern mountains again today.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over far western SD. Upper trough will move to eastern IA by Sun afternoon.
144 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Showers will exit the area overnight with a crossing cold front. Mainly dry weather returns Saturday under building high pressure. Warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. A lingering, weakening cold front will allow for continued isolated showers through the day on Saturday South of PA.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below Surface analysis shows a weak ridge of high pressure extending south from Canada into the area today. There may be a bit of a gap (or at least a lightening of precipitation) in things across the central portion of the area where subsidence may be enhanced north of convection and in the downward side of the low level frontogenetic circulation. Then focus shifts to development/movement of blocking ridge central CONUS, cutoff low southeast CONUS, and Atlantic tropical system off of Carolina coast into midweek. Clouds are expected to remain and temperatures will struggle to warm through the 50s far east and the lower 60s west. In the wake of the weekend short wave the system cuts off an upper low and it moves slowly east in deference to building ridge over the central CONUS.
Ongoing MCS at the time of this discussion is moving through northwest Kansas and is quickly diving southeast that our northwest zones will begin to see the activity enter around 07Z and the CAM models are still suggesting some storms developing along a frontal boundary in the highway 50 corridor. Through the day today a cold front will come into western Kansas and we should have more stable air and clearing skies move into the northwestern zones through the afternoon.
Will be slightly warmer across western areas today due to more sunshine through the afternoon hours. Clearing trend continues overnight as a short lived upper level ridge migrates across the area with southwest flow aloft arriving on its heels Sunday morning. Much warmer air arrives with the southwesterly flow and it is aided by a subtle downslope gradient. A bit of thunderstorm activity is possible for the higher terrain west of Billings Sunday afternoon but do not expect this activity to migrate into the lower elevations.
High pressure aloft will move across Utah on Saturday, then shift east of the state as a strong upper level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday.
In the lower levels, low clouds associated with convergence along the stationary front that is sitting roughly along I-70 will likely linger through the evening. The stationary front should begin to lift northward as a warm front late tonight with it moving north of the area by late tomorrow morning. With no focus it's difficult to say one area has a better chance than any other area until the evening when a cold front moves through the area. Cooler and drier air move into the region for Sunday behind the front.
301 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a cold front running from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into western Kansas. Wrap around rain is expected Sunday as the low slowly makes its way to the east. Discussion: Sunday afternoon expect the upper level low to slowly be moving east. Overall the upper level closed low looks to become vertically stacked across our area, and eventually cut off from the flow. The upper level low looks to take up residence over the Great Lakes until late in the period another wave comes and pushes it out of the area. We look to have quiet weather and even though there is a strong ridge across the CONUS and a warm up, the easterly flow from the lakes will likely keep us from the summer heat.
Today, the Ohio Valley sits in front of an upper trough with a low pressure system spinning over eastern Texas. Running along the Ohio River lies a front extending east of the low system. The higher temperatures will be near Bowling Green. Tonight, the low pressure system will begin sliding north with upper flow.
704 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 (Today and tonight) The upper trough over the southern Plains will slowly move east today with showers and storms likely, especially in the southeast.
738 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected today with building high pressure, though isolated showers will be possible south of Pennsylvania.
806 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 An area of low pressure (Invest 90) off the southeast FL coast tracks across the northwestern Bahamas today. The highest odds of rainfall is expected inland. As the low moves out over the Atlantic this evening some drier air sweeps into the area over night. Low pressure tracking along the east coast of FL today will shift northeast winds to northwest in afternoon.
Also, slightly drier air is beginning to advect into the area in the wake of the trough. Today a progressive ridge moves over the region resulting in fairly quiet weather and slightly above normal temperatures. Tomorrow a strong closed low pressure pushes into the Pacific Northwest, which will bring southwest flow to our area.
529 AM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over southeast MT with upper ridge over the far western CONUS. At the surface, low is centered over the NEB panhandle with inverted trof extending northeast into southwest/south central SD, coinciding well with the most concentrated area of precip. Upper low advances slowly southeast across western/central SD today.
417 AM PDT Sat May 16 2020 Dry, seasonal weather is on tap this weekend as a weak ridge drifts overhead.
High pressure aloft will move across Utah today, then shift east of the state as a strong upper level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday.
The main focus in this period will be surrounding an upper level low pressure system that will slowly move across the region today into tomorrow. Shower & some thundershower activity continues to develop across portions of central and western South Dakota early this morning in response to ejecting s/w energy from upper low positioned across SE MT. Upper low will slowly work east- southeast today across western & central SD. Looks like best forcing with this system overspreads the area from mid-late morning through this evening as this warmer and more moist airmass lifts northward over the region. Temperatures do modify for the latter half of the weekend as the rain system pulls away and a ridge begins to build across the western Dakotas.