Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
246 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 A STRONG 598 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NM WHILE A 567 DM 500 MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. A 1022 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WI SW ACROSS NW MO AND EASTERN KS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
High pressure at the surface will be shifting east this weekend. At the same time, an inverted low pressure trof aloft develops and extends across the lower to mid MS and TN valleys.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE DUE TO IN PART BY THE DISTURBANCES THAT STREAMED IN AROUND THE HIGH AND HEADED TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT/TIMING OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS SE INDIANA INTO THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS. THUS WILL KEEP THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND GO WITH HIGHS JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TENNESSE VOLUNTEER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WHILE A SUBTLE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST AND MINOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE.
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ALONG A KCTB-TO-KDLN LINE AT 1100Z WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
729 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GENERAL TROUGHING CONTINUED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY SITS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING US WITH THE HOT AND DRY TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. A TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. BASED ON MORNING RAP MODEL ANALYSIS THERE ARE SUBTLE SIGNS THAT A SHORT WAVE AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH SITUATED OVER EAST TEXAS IS WHAT IS KICKING OFF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 15/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS.
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GENERAL TROUGHING CONTINUED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS TODAY TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME TRAPPED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER AROUND 70 DEGREES.
ALONG/OR WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSAGES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ALOFT IN SCT SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT ELEVATION IN MOISTURE LEVELS.
930 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY WITH REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER AS UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS JET STREAM AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TODAY WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS TROF PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS.
High pressure over the four corners will build westward over the next couple of days.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS MOVED INLAND ACROSS SE GA UNDER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADED WESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL COAST. LOW TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. TO THE UPPER/MID 80S TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD. WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BE PREPARED FOR EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES IF YOU ARE HEADING INTO THE LOWER DESERT AREAS OF ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TO GENERATE MORE CONVECTION TODAY.
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A RESULT OF A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TX COAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
Showers and thunderstorms have been concentrated along and south of the trough this morning with most of the local activity confined to the coastal waters. Expect to see the highest rain chances remain fairly close to the coast in the Panhandle for today, with another maximum over the eastern Big Bend as the east coast seabreeze approaches this afternoon.
925 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK TROUGH THAT EXISTED OFFSHORE YESTERDAY HAS BROKEN DOWN ALLOWING A RELATIVELY LIGHT LOW LEVEL SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
AS UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. /ISSUED / UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WERE STILL PREVALENT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT WEAKEN.
650 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BUBBLE OF WARM AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE 15.
A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
839 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER TEMPS AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP IN THERMAL PATTERN QUITE WELL DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS SET OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
1051 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS A WEAK CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT ELEVATION IN MOISTURE LEVELS.
942 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN IDAHO AS GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 MPH CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME. A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING HAS MANAGED TO PUSH A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND THE WEST DESERT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER THAN THAT ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRRAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING TOMORROW.
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/ UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
1026 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 THE BROAD ZONE OF LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THAT IS BREAKING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STAY EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT UPPER TROUGH COULD BE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
100 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DESERT SW. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SUN LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 69 89 69 / 30 20 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 67 87 68 / 40 20 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 67 87 68 / 50 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 63 85 65 / 30 20 20 20.
932 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
932 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS STRONG RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES CANADA. SECONDARY UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA LATE. WEAK UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
SHOWERS HAD PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS WEAK TROUGH. AND ANY OF THOSE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE WEAK TROUGH. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT PUTTING A LID ON ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 CURRENTLY THE CWA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LIGHT SE FLOW FROM RIDGING OFF THE SE COAST FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 850 MB. HOWEVER, THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE PENETRATION TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 TO 60 ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST FORCING FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECKS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE LOWER KEYS.
Low elevations are likely to stay wet through Thursday, however road conditions could get a little dicey from wet pavement freezing after sunset Thursday.
A weak cold front extends south along the upper Mississippi river, into/across central MO at this writing. As the surface reflected boundary approaches from the west, strong PVA aloft carves a sharpening upper trof thru the lower OH/mid MS river valley.
1216 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HYDRO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
134 PM PST WED DEC 9 2015 The mild and wet weather of late will change to cooler and snowier starting tonight. /SVH 18Z TAFS: A strong cold front is exiting the region late this morning.
1129 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015 The mild and wet weather of late will change to cooler and snowier starting tonight. The High Wind Warning for the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area down to the Palouse, Northeast Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie has been downgraded to a Wind Advisory. Strong wind gusts up to 60-65 mph were observed with cold front passage this morning. /SVH 18Z TAFS: A strong cold front is exiting the region late this morning.
221 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015 Weak high pressure of 1016 mb over southern MS river valley and ridging northward across the MS river valley will shift into the southeast states by sunrise Thursday morning. West winds 7-15 mph this afternoon will veer SSW this evening at 5-10 mph and then gradually pick up to 10-15 mph west of I-57 later tonight as pressure gradient starts to increase while south winds stay lighter in southeast IL tonight closer to high pressure ridge. Combination of ssw winds and passing mid/high clouds to keep low temps well above normal and freezing with lower 40s most areas and coolest around 40F near IN border where winds will be lighter tonight.
340 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONT THAT HAS PERSISTED IN VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS FINALLY BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER SUBTLE H5 TROUGH PASSES.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS COME INLAND AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER BRIEF RIDGING AND DRYING THIS EVENING A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THEIR FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING THEN DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY MILD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY ON THURSDAY WITH PCPN FALLING ALL DAY. COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY SITTING ALONG THE COAST AT ABOUT 4 AM MST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY BRINGING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT BELOW 6500 FT MSL. EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 11 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY THE LOWEST 100-150 MB SATURATED. NOT A BIG CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH REMAINS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND COULD SEE CLOUD COVER HOLD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS AND WK HIGH PRESSURE WL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED GIVEN THE WARMER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE WINDS WL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ONSHORE LATER TNT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH PASSED THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS MORNING AND SWRN IDAHO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF RIDGING AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM COMES INLAND DURING THE NIGHT AND SPREADS MORE PCPN ACROSS SERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND WRN-MOST IDAHO IN THE PRE-DAWN THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT AROUND THOSE LOCATIONS AS THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY KICK IN BY THIS EVENING AS A BORA TYPE WIND EVENT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CARBON COUNTY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
JMS /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015/ 5H TROF AXIS IS NOW ALONG THE AL/GA LINE WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOS OVER NERN AL ON LOCAL RADARS. AFTER THE WEAK TROF GOES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS.
253 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015 5H TROF AXIS IS NOW ALONG THE AL/GA LINE WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOS OVER NERN AL ON LOCAL RADARS. AFTER THE WEAK TROF GOES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS.
303 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE THE EASTERN U. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRI-SAT WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA. WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AREA. THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL NOT EVEN REACH THE CWA BUT RATHER REMAIN TO THE NORTH AS IT PASSES EAST. THE COMBINATION OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
415 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING, DUE TO CIGS, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
348 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY POST- FRONTAL WINDS. BUT THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT AND RUGBY. THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE- ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR FULL MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT THROUGH THE EVENING. AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS WELL BASED ON OBSERVED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. WE THEREFORE ARE NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN ISSUES. WE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
305 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015 DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST COULDNT MATERIALIZE. NOW THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS THROUGH.
OVERNIGHT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL MOIST NIGHT LIKELY TO BRING MORE VLIFR/-IFR 09-15Z AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. /ISSUED 1014 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015/ HAND DRAWN SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE MID TENN VALLEY THAT SNAKES SOUTH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM. /ISSUED 202 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015/ A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO SET-UP AS SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS WEAK UPPER-RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
253 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015 SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON AVERAGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 KT RANGE AS A LEE TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THEY WILL THEN TEMPORARILY BECOME LIGHT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LEE TROF DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS FROM GETTING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WITH MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 40S.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO PUSH THE LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
324 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS GIVES HOPE THAT EVEN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT ABOVE FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER NW MN.
109 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
1144 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN DOWNEAST AND SNOW NORTH IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENING TOWARD MORNING AND SOME SUPER COOLED MIST OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS VERY EARLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION.
106 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
355 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
LIGHT SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING IS SHOWN BY THE NAM TO EXTEND LOW CLOUDS SLIGHTLY LONGER IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OVER CENTRAL TX. SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE WARMER DEW POINTS.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS LIFTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE SOUTH FL PENINSULA WHICH WAS IMPACTING OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES THIS AFTN.
116 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LEE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE ROCKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS UNLIKELY AS THE SOURCE REGION OF COOLER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF US. THIS FRONT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. YET ANOTHER LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH THE SHIFTS OFF THE ROCKIES STILL HAS SOME PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES IN THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
346 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
330 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
NORTHERN LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. 17 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS NORTH OF ALABAMA ON TODAY.
336 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
1014 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 HAND DRAWN SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE MID TENN VALLEY THAT SNAKES SOUTH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM.
1248 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
BUT IF THE COOLER TEMPS ARE DELAYED IT MAY ALSO STAY AS JUST RAIN TOO. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AMOUNTS TREND TO THE LOWER SIDE OF THE TOTALS LISTED ABOVE.
704 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROPAGATES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. WAA TONIGHT CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE S/WV RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST OR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.