Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While a slightly backed low level flow (from the SSE this afternoon) and some degree of upper level cirrus may hinder a run to record territory (86 at DTW and 85 at FNT and MBS), suspect high temperatures this afternoon will range solidly in the lower 80s in most locations which is some 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages for this part of October. Some degree of convective activity will remain possible into the overnight hours as a cold front rotates northeast into the area as the low to the west spins up over Wisconsin/Lake Michigan. Temperatures will remain very mild for October standards for the rest of the week as area remains within broad southwesterly flow between upper ridging over the eastern CONUS and upper trough over the middle of the nation.
Temps will be slightly above normal despite the onshore Northeast flow at 10-15 mph along the coast with highs in the lower 80s and 5-10 mph inland with highs into the middle 80s.
1151 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in far NW MO as isentropic ascent and the exit region of the low level jet meet ahead of the front. We are also keeping our eyes on an approaching trough making its way into NW TX and OK through the afternoon. This trough amplifies lift and instability as it moves eastward triggering more widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the region late this evening.
252 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Current upper level analysis shows the upper trough currently situated over the west coastal states and southwest flow aloft over our region. To our east, weak split flow as mild ridging sits over the Great Lakes and the low that previously brought our precipitation situated near the Ohio Valley.
Latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery are showing sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70's. ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico producing a predominant east-northeast wind flow around 15 knots or less through the week. Rain and storm chances will remain on the low side making for a very pleasant week to be on the gulf coast waters.
Temperatures today will be slightly cooler, but not because of CAA. High pressure will become more dominant across S TX on Tuesday leading to little to no rain and higher max temps. The higher temps combined with a humid airmass will lead to heat indices of 105 to 109 Tuesday afternoon.
653 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure and southerly winds provide another warm and dry day today before a weakening frontal system brings a chance of precipitation tonight.
A weak yet mainly dry cold front will push across the region from west to east today. Weak surface ridging and lack of moisture will also make for a mainly clear to partly cloudy day.
618 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A departing area of low pressure across the Missouri River valley will continue to track east northeast today. there is not much to speak of as a nice afternoon with light winds and temperatures in the lower 70s is expected across the entire forecast area. This low should then reach the local area Tuesday night. the entire forecast area is in at lease a slight risk for severe weather as this powerful low pressure system crosses the local area. Given the dynamical nature of this low.
401 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The upper low continued to lift northeast into Northeast Oklahoma early this morning. Additional showers and scattered thunderstorms remained ongoing across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as they wrapped around the upper low. transitioning from south to west to northwest as the backside of the low moved into the region. the low pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to lift northeast and exit the region by early this afternoon.
Furthermore, guidance shows a vort max rounding the base of the mid to upper level trough and moving over the central and southwestern Florida peninsula and reaching the Keys during the afternoon. The light breeze will continue to prevail through the middle of the week, and then high pressure will settle across the southeast U.
454 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The upper ridge of high pressure over Colorado this morning will shift into the central plains this afternoon as the next storm system intensifies over the Great Basin. Ahead of the system, temperatures will be warmer today with readings around 70 degrees across the plains. Expect increasing southeasterly winds on the plains today as surface lee trof intensifies this afternoon. The path of first decent trough/upper closed low of the season has changed a bit from yesterday's 00Z model runs. From 12-18Z Tuesday morning, models have a closed low a tad north of the four corners.
It will be noticeably cooler area wide today, with highs ranging from the mid-30s in the Southwest to the mid 40s across the plains. Regardless of where these bands set up, the heaviest snowfall totals are still likely to remain over Gallatin, Madison, and Southern Beaverhead counties, particularly over the higher terrain.
Currently along the lower Keys and outflow boundary from the Florida mainland has been marching southwest and triggering showers across mostly Big Pine Key. Light and variable winds will persist through at least Tuesday as the trough lingers in the area. While all of this is occurring, an upper level cut-off low will meander across the region, eventually settling southwest of our area towards the end of the week. Thereafter, high pressure will settle across the southeast U.
The track of the low will leave us on the far northern edge, leading to little in the way of precip. Overcast skies across Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota will keep highs today in the low to mid 60s, while western Minnesota will be a few degrees warmer under mostly sunny skies. Overnight, we end up on the backside of this low as it taps into increased moisture aloft, leading to a westward expansion of our cloud deck by Tuesday. Temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 60s with light northerly winds. Cyclogenesis will be well underway over the central Plains Tuesday evening, with the low centered over western Nebraska. Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Plains will follow the low northeastward and reach southwestern MN after midnight.
647 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Dry and warm high pressure will remain in place through late this week.
448 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Current upper level analysis shows the upper trough currently situated over the west coastal states and southwest flow aloft over our region. To our east, weak split flow as mild ridging sits over the Great Lakes and the low that previously brought our precipitation situated near the Ohio Valley.
439 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A departing area of low pressure across the Missouri River valley will continue to track east northeast today. there is not much to speak of as a nice afternoon with light winds and temperatures in the lower 70s is expected across the entire forecast area. This low should then reach the local area Tuesday night. the entire forecast area is in at lease a slight risk for severe weather as this powerful low pressure system crosses the local area. Given the dynamical nature of this low.
There will also be a chance of showers as a weak cold front moves through early Tuesday morning.
Strong upper low over the Plains will work its way to the northeast today, and bring chances for showers and a few thunderstorms later in the afternoon through the evening hours. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances has weakened slightly, but a few strong storms will be possible late this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. Models weaken instability quickly towards and after sunset, but deep layer shear will remain strong with the upper low nearby.
647 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Morning lows will drop into the low 60s and possible upper 50s in north-western CWA. Today and Tonight: Surface ridging along the eastern seaboard remains entrenched despite a weak offshore low pressure center. A vigorous low pressure to our northwest will try to push a cold front into the area by late overnight, but the forcing will lift north and no precip is expected. With dew points in the low 60s, overnight low temps will again stay slightly above average. Upper ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico will extend northward across the area through the period.
609 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A mix bag of flight conditions remain across the area as a cold front and broken line of showers are moving through the region. the front will start to return northward as a warm front just before daybreak Tuesday, bringing a surge in low clouds northward. Temps on today will also be much cooler in most locations, with highs ranging from the upper 70s north of Interstate 30 to the mid 80s across Deep East Texas/Central Louisiana. Dry conditions to continue overnight into Tuesday morning, with cooler conditions moving into the region. However, the front looks to return northward as a warm front on Tuesday, with rain chances returning areawide by the afternoon. Should also see a return in southerly winds along with warm and humid conditions, as the warm front lifts through the region.
The current level just below flood stage is forecast to rise again with the high tide today and tonight.
Moderate southerly wind is gusty, but the cold front should pass through the Snake River plain sometime around 1500 MDT in the Pocatello-Idaho Falls area. Temperatures will likely peak today during the morning with the afternoon arrival of the cold front. Temperatures in the 40s will cool to the lower to middle 30s during the afternoon.
649 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure will keep it fair and dry today and Tuesday.
Gusts should decrease later this afternoon as the low lifts to the north. The upper level ridging over the region has slowly given way to an advancing 500mb trough/upper low. However, the upper low associated with this system moves northward and into the Midwest quickly. Max heat indices get into the low to mid 90s from the I-55 corridor to the Delta. Better chances for severe storms is to the north of the forecast area, in proximity to the upper low. In the afternoon, the low tracks north and the gradient relaxes, winds decrease. Cooler air filtering into the region behind the boundary results in overnight lows ranging from near 60F in the northwest to low 70s south of I-20.
928 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure will keep it fair and dry today and Tuesday.
High pressure will result in another dry day with above normal temperature. A weak trough will transition over the area Tuesday, however, with minimal moisture and weak dynamics have maintained a mainly dry forecast.
638 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Morning lows will drop into the low 60s and possible upper 50s in north-western CWA. Today and Tonight: Surface ridging along the eastern seaboard remains entrenched despite a weak offshore low pressure center. A vigorous low pressure to our northwest will try to push a cold front into the area by late overnight, but the forcing will lift north and no precip is expected. With dew points in the low 60s, overnight low temps will again stay slightly above average. Upper ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico will extend northward across the area through the period.
516 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.
This low should rapidly head NNE towards the southern Great Lakes by later today. This further separation of the low from thunderstorm activity along an advancing front will help limit overall storm strength for this area. Convection east of the low was occurring from east/central Missouri, to SW Arkansas and eastern Texas. Before shower activity commences, another unseasonably warm day is expected for Columbus Day, with high temperatures rising into the lower 80s (and a few mid 80s in the warmest spots). The aformentioned cold front should be near far NW Alabama early this evening. The front should slowly dissipate/fade as the upper ridge to our south rebounds. Also during today and Tue, a stronger upper low is forecast to move across the Central Rockies, with east of the Rockies cyclogenesis expected on Tue/Wed.
Low clouds will continue to circulate around the upper low pressure for most of the day today. An upper level low pressure over central Oklahoma will quickly move northward and be over northwest WI by early evening. The region could continue to see light precipitation into Tuesday morning as the upper level low pressure moves northward. Regardless, the region will experience slightly above normal temperatures due to a weak upper ridge that moves in during the afternoon. The next thing to note would be the cooler temperatures forecasted for later in the week. We will be in a caa regime as the aforementioned low pressure moves into southern Canada giving us highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s.
721 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Morning lows will drop into the low 60s and possible upper 50s in north-western CWA. Today and Tonight: Surface ridging along the eastern seaboard remains entrenched despite a weak offshore low pressure center. A vigorous low pressure to our northwest will try to push a cold front into the area by late overnight, but the forcing will lift north and no precip is expected. With dew points in the low 60s, overnight low temps will again stay slightly above average. Upper ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico will extend northward across the area through the period.
Low level moisture will begin to increase across the area tonight, as south winds return ahead of an approaching upper level trough to our west. This will result in warmer temperatures tonight, with overnight lows in the 60s.
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure and southerly winds provide another warm and dry day today before a weakening frontal system brings a chance of precipitation tonight.
1220 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Rainfall is unlikely this week as an upper level ridge builds into the region. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Tonight, an upper level trough will lift into the Great Lakes region. Upper ridging over the FA will help to keep a cold front outside of the area. With dew points in the low 60s, overnight low temps will again stay slightly above normal. Upper ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico will extend northward across the area through the period.
212 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Upper level ridging extends from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the eastern seaboard, while an upper low sits off the southeast coast of Florida. On the surface, broad high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest of Florida. This dry air will limit shower and storm activity through the week with only a 20-30 percent chance each day with the highest chances over the interior and southwest Florida.
By Tuesday, southwest flow begins to develop into western ND ahead of the next approaching system, however we remain under the ridge aloft and only increasing higher clouds would be expected through the afternoon. Due to the increase in cloud cover and shift in BL flow to the north, highs may be a bit cooler than today with values in the 50s to near 60 (instead of mid/upper 60s).
204 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Fair and warm conditions expected the next few days with pressure ridge across the area both at the surface and aloft. A cold front will move through the area this weekend with a chance of showers.
243 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A mid to upper-level cyclone over the Bahamas bisects mean layer ridging stretching from the western North Atlantic to Mexico. A wobbly node along the western flank of the upper cyclone continues to pivot southwest through South Florida and the Upper Keys. A thin line of showers developed south of the Lower Keys this morning, and since then, the lee of Big Pine and also the core of Key West have produced brief showers.
A developing cut-off low pressure system continues to spread moisture north and west across west-central and southwest Montana this afternoon.
The low level flow does back more southeasterly this evening as the wave approaches, and a very low tornado risk may exist until the sfc based instability fades.
A departing area of low pressure across the Missouri River valley will continue to track east northeast today. there is not much to speak of as a nice afternoon with light winds and temperatures in the lower 70s is expected across the entire forecast area. This low should then reach the local area Tuesday night. the entire forecast area is in at lease a slight risk for severe weather as this powerful low pressure system crosses the local area. Given the dynamical nature of this low.
A slow moving cold front and area of low pressure to our southwest are expected to combine to bring an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms across northern Michigan, mainly from early this evening into early tonight. Temperatures will remain on the mild side with lows in the low and mid 60s.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 65 83 65 / 0 20 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 79 64 82 63 / 0 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 79 63 82 63 / 0 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 78 60 79 58 / 0 10 10 10 0.
5+ precipitable water and rich boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Going through Tuesday we'll see the mid level ridge rebuild over the forecast area. Otherwise, expect the warmer than normal temperatures to continue.
A potent upper low over the 4 corners region Tuesday morning will swing northeast into the Central Plains Tuesday night. For tonight,lows will be mainly in the lower 60s, especially over southern sections which will see increasing moisture and clouds. With the low level moisture surge moving back into the area and the cooling aloft with the upper trough approach, getting some hail or wind gusts from the stronger storms certainly possible. Meanwhile, weather maker 2 will be entering the picture in the form of tropical cyclone Pamela. Cool air mass settles in behind the front and Pamela, with highs only climbing into the lower 70s for the weekend.
As the line approaches the I-65 corridor this evening, the combination of losing daytime heating and the battle with capping/upper level troughing should kill off any lingering thunder and diminish most of the rain. Today's front won't bring any relief from the warmer temperatures. Upper ridging will maintain itself across the southeast U.
319 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Conditions will remain quiet tonight as weak high pressure remains over the region. A fairly strong storm system will begin to approach the area on Tuesday, with the low center reaching western Nebraska by late afternoon. The low continues northward Tuesday night, becoming centered over western South Dakota. A large shield of precipitation will accompany this low, with the entire CWA likely to see light to moderate rainfall and windy conditions Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s, with lows Tuesday night mainly in the 40s.
1026 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A few light rain showers continue across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning as low pressure spins over west-central Missouri.
The cold front is moving east and should be out of the area later tonight. There remains a small chance that as the front moves into the warmer air near the Tennessee River, where it has been sunny most of the day, it maybe able to produce a stronger storm than we have seen so far today. As the front moves through skies will clear and the winds will decrease tonight as high pressure at the surface moves into the area.
High pressure to the north and a ridge axis parked over the area will keep dry and warm conditions through the near term period, although a few stray showers will be possible across the offshore waters in the morning.
1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Powerful upper low is situated along the KS-OK border southeast of Wichita and is continuing to lift quickly off to the northeast. Initial line of strong/severe convection is tracking across western MO with a secondary line of convection lifting northeast out of north central/northeast OK and is situated very close to the upper low. Surface ridging between departing low pressure and developing cyclone over the Rockies will quickly translate eastward early tonight with developing and increasing south to southeasterly surface flow by Tuesday morning.
/Issued 1026 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021/ A few light rain showers continue across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning as low pressure spins over west-central Missouri.
High pressure centered near Maine and extending into the region will retreat as an new area of high pressure develops across the Southeast during the middle and late portion of the work week. The low clouds will finally begin to clear out on Tuesday as the coastal low finally departs to the northeast. Also noted the upper trough progged to lift NE across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. and once a shear axis trailing south of that trough passes across the Mid Atlantic region by mid day, look for the upper ridge to our SW to expand across our area, further helping to scour out the lingering moisture and allowing sunshine to return.
216 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Mild/breezy conditions this afternoon behind departing low pressure system, currently lifting through central Missouri. Level moisture will begin to surge back north into the day Tuesday as another strong upper low/trough lifts into the central Plains. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will spread back into area during the day Tuesday as stronger isentropic lift develops with a warm front lifting back north. Surface based instability will be dropping off during this time with the main upper dynamics of upper low lifting well north of the area.
Broad ridging at all levels has resulted in a mostly clear and dry day, with only high cirrus for cloud cover. A weak trough will transition over the area Tuesday, however, with minimal moisture and weak dynamics have maintained a mainly dry forecast.
Went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations of Prairie County tonight where 2 to 3 inches of snow can be expected (mainly affecting the highway from Brockway to Terry).
331 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A Pacific cold front is moving into nrn Nebraska this afternoon. The very low freezing levels, less than 10kft, suggest the potential for small hail.
1144 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Current upper level analysis shows the upper trough currently situated over the west coastal states and southwest flow aloft over our region. To our east, weak split flow as mild ridging sits over the Great Lakes and the low that previously brought our precipitation situated near the Ohio Valley.
1231 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure and southerly winds will provide another warm and dry day today before a weakening frontal system brings a chance of precipitation tonight.
352 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The low pressure system which brought widespread heavy rainfall to much of E KS and W MO this morning continues to make its way across northern MO. Surface convergence and warm frontogenesis across US36 will keep showers going into this evening for areas north of the MO River and east of I-35. On the flip side, cloud cover today has kept temperatures much cooler with many areas struggling to reach the mid 60s.