Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1237 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. H5 RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. H5 RIDGING SHOULD OCCUPY MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z.
141 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL START TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH. WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EXTREME EASTERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT.
248 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PROMOTING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMER DAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER THE AREA. AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST.
ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS THE EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE CLOUD LINE MOVING OFF THE LOWER KEYS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST AND IS THE CATALYST FOR THE INCREASING WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST TODAY. THE RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY.
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST TODAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IT IS VERY DRY (850 MB TO 700 MB). MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
LATE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS IN MOST CASES. WITH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE GREAT PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW INTO SEMI WILL PERSIST AROUND THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 6KFT IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION TO SURVIVE THEIR TRIP INTO SE MICHIGAN, EVEN WITH THE HELP OF MARGINAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
atmospheric moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri Vly. trough ejects into the central High Plains.
ALTHOUGH NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
ONE MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AS WELL AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWESTERN STATES. HAS LED TO A SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ARE RIDING UP AND ALONG THIS BROAD RIDGING PATTERN. BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TOMORROW AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS GAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT ALL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE HIGH VARIETY. THE ONLY IMPACT THIS SCT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE IS TO PREVENT SUCH A LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAIN STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGIONS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BEING SEMI- PERMANENT FEATURES.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND REACH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PLUS WARMER CONDITIONS. NEAR THE COAST THE COOLER WATER TEMPS AND LACK OF AN OFFSHORE WIND WILL KEEP THOSE SPOTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM SCA. SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM.
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WHICH HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD YESTERDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION.
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. 19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.
543 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE, WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE DDC CWA.
THE HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. AN UPR TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO. THE UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FOR SAT.
There's fair agreement that an intensifying upper trough within the westerlies over central Canada will phase somewhat with the east Texas low, pulling it up and away toward the middle of the week. Behind this trough, upper level ridging is forecast to build over the desert Southwest east across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Warmer temperatures are forecast areawide this week, running some 5 to 10 degrees above normal for last September/early October.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. DESPITE MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF. /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROAM AROUND THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
752 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AVIATION MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH CLEARER SKIES.
THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPREADING NORTH BUT THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS BEEN RELEGATED WELL SOUTH THUS FAR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
707 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 244 PM CDT BREAKS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO ADDITIONAL MID AND LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTH IN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THERMAL 850/925 RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK NEAR 80 WITH CONTINUED MID-LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 80 67 76 / 20 30 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 83 67 76 / 20 20 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 82 67 76 / 20 20 30 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 79 65 74 / 20 20 40 70.
1225 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFLECTS FORECAST POPS THROUGH MONDAY.
807 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60) AND CLOUDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE S-SW FLOW WILL BRING THE LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SE MI.
635 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 112 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A VAST AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF ITS POSITION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY WEAKENS LEAVING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF POSITION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER E-CNTRL WI WL SHIFT NEWD AS THE LOW-LVL WIND FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
953 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON BAY. SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HEIGHTS STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT IS BRINGING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT DEEPER TAP IS OVER WYOMING AND CURRENT RADAR DOES SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE PARK AND THE BIG HORNS.
613 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Water vapor imagery depicts a broad region of moisture advection from the south extending into southern and central Missouri associated with a dissipating upper low. This will maintain afternoon highs in the upper 70's to low 80's for the southern CWA with temperatures expected to peak in the low to mid-80's for northwest Missouri.
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER DESSERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS IN OVER WEST TEXAS. IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TO CLOSE OUT SEPTEMBER WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER WEST TEXAS.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF.
Cloud cover has had a considerable impact on temperatures this afternoon, with temps under the more persistent cloud deck staying in the low 70s. Readings have warmed into the low 80s where clouds haven't been as widespread.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA. THIS WEAKENING OF THE JETS RESULTS IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IN WHICH THE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE WHERE UPPER HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS OVER NRN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND OVER CENTRAL MAN/CENTRAL SASK. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAS MOSTLY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
Very weak pattern aloft as an upper low along the Texas Gulf coast has cut itself off from the westerlies. Flow over the Ohio Valley is very light through a deep layer, with enough low-level moisture pooling along a weak inverted sfc trof to support a few light showers.
958 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFLECTS FORECAST POPS THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO OVER MOST INLAND AREAS. THE AIR MASS WILL WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MENTIONABLE TOMORROW. /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RESIDE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON BAY. SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A FLATTENING RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH MONTANA. AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHERN TROUGH IS PUSHING A WEAK SHALLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS IDAHO WHICH THE GFS/NAM STILL INSIST WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SMALL MENTION OF POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
1105 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S OVER THE REMAINDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF CONSIDERABLY STARTING IN THE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS.
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ND WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
1131 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AT 19Z.
EVEN THOUGH, PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE KEYS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
954 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND OVER CENTRAL MAN/CENTRAL SASK. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAS MOSTLY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A few showers have been tracking northwest out of southern Illinois, associated with what is left of the upper low over the Tennessee Valley. The latest NAM model favors more of a patchy fog scenario, which would seem more likely given the lack of widespread clearing plus not much of a wind field to advect the low clouds into this area, so will continue with mention of patchy fog for now.
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROAM AROUND THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
AIR MASS DRIER TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOS MAY BE KEYING ON THE HIGH PWATS/MEAN RH VALUES ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY MORNING. AND HERE IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GO (NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME). THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION (IF ANY) WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS UPPER LOW IS WELL EAST OF AREA. A BIT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
722 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
557 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDS. ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDS. ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A DEEPENING MID LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE UPPER TX COAST IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS ALONG I-35 AFTER 15Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IOWA TO TEXAS WITH A CLOSED LOW IN IT OVER TEXAS. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT A BIT TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BUILD IN.
738 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFLECTS FORECAST POPS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES OF LUNAR ECLIPSE AS WELL AS KEEP MUGGY/HUMID EARLY MORNING LOWS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT TO SEE JUST ENOUGH SUNNY BREAKS IN THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND JUST ENOUGH WARMTH TO HELP TRIGGER EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY. WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REACH HIGHEST VALUES SINCE LAST NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IN NOV 2012 AND IN SOME LOCATIONS THE HIGHEST SINCE TS FAY IN 2008.