Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure ridging in from the north will keep generally east and southeast flow in place through the rest of the week, turning to southerly during the upcoming weekend ahead of an approaching front. Scattered showers or perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible during the weekend as moisture increases ahead of the cold front.
643 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through tonight and into Thanksgiving Day.
456 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 The upper level trough is centered over the Rockies, pushing clouds into northeastern WY and the western Dakotas. At the surface, the cold front is moving through the CWA, producing breezy northwest winds behind. Temperatures range from the 30s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the low 60s across south central SD.
617 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 A large area of high pressure will remain centered over the Commonwealth into Thursday before moving northeast off the New England Coast.
223 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 Upper level low dives south over the Rockies and bottoms out near El Paso Texas late Thursday. This low is bringing light snow to the northern mountains at this time. The northerly flow will usher in cooler air with highs for Thanksgiving in the 30s to lower 40s over northeast Colorado.
We should see temperatures well above freezing area wide tonight, in the low to middle 40s.
320 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 The cold front continues to move south across the state today, with snow spreading across the northern mountains, and sweeping down the I-25 corridor.
230 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 Today has been a warmer day than weâve had recently, and temperatures have successfully risen above freezing, breaking the streak of cold days in most places. Places that keep cloud cover will keep moderated temperatures, while those with clearing skies will have cooler temperatures and a high probability of fog development during Thursday morning.
519 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) The main story for the short term period will be the mid-level trough digging into the Plains Thursday bringing a cold front through Deep South Texas Thursday night. We are currently seeing temperatures in the low to mid 60s in the lower Valley with mid to upper 50s north and west. Thursday temperatures will warm up even more with highs in the low to mid 70s and we may even get a few peaks of sun! By Thursday night the aforementioned front begins to move into northern portions of the CWA allowing precipitation chances to increase across the region.
Temperatures above normal are expected under a ridge for the rest of this week. As the exit region of a jet streak begins to move over the Northland, a resultant cold front will bring slight chances for mixed precipitation across far northern Minnesota and light rain to drizzle in portions of northwest Wisconsin. Dry air aloft in northern Minnesota will bring possibilities for freezing rain with or before transitioning to snow as the vertical column saturates. Model soundings are hovering around freezing at the surface with a warm nose aloft, so just a few degrees difference or a difference in moisture will determine what the precipitation types will be and when. After the trough moves east, a ridge will move over the upper Midwest, where southerly flow will bring warmer and drier conditions across the area.
427 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Sunny skies and warmer weather continue this afternoon as ridging remains over the area. With WAA and sunny skies continuing until this evening, expect to see the low to mid 40s as a high temperature across the area today (observations already show temps in the low 40s across most of the UP as of this writing). Expect cloud cover to increase from the west late tonight as a cold front approaches the UP; this cloud cover may inhibit fog formation over the western half of Upper MI late tonight as temps at the sfc may be able to stay above the dewpoint.
551 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Sunny skies and warmer weather continue this afternoon as ridging remains over the area. With WAA and sunny skies continuing until this evening, expect to see the low to mid 40s as a high temperature across the area today (observations already show temps in the low 40s across most of the UP as of this writing). Expect cloud cover to increase from the west late tonight as a cold front approaches the UP; this cloud cover may inhibit fog formation over the western half of Upper MI late tonight as temps at the sfc may be able to stay above the dewpoint.
Dry conditions will continue for this Thanksgiving Eve, thanks to an area of high pressure settled over the northeastern CONUS. Southerly flow has helped current temperatures warm into the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. 1) Chances of light rain or drizzle will increase tonight, lasting through most of Thanksgiving day 2) Temperatures will remain above seasonal average for the short term period We will see increasing moisture across our region late tonight into Thanksgiving, thanks to southerly return flow around an area of high pressure that will linger over the New England area, along with a deepening upper-level longwave trough over the Intermountain West states. A cold front is also progged to sweep through the area on Thanksgiving day. Ahead of this front will see the increasing moisture, especially in the low-levels.
947 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 The cold front continues to move south across the state today, with snow spreading across the northern mountains, and sweeping down the I-25 corridor.
1233 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Sunny and seasonable weather will continue through Thanksgiving under high pressure.
Upper level low dives south over the Rockies and bottoms out near El Paso Texas late Thursday. This low is bringing light snow to the northern mountains at this time. The northerly flow will usher in cooler air with highs for Thanksgiving in the 30s to lower 40s over northeast Colorado.
So today will be cooler, but still nice with abundant sunshine.
1132 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Sunny skies and warmer weather continue this afternoon as ridging remains over the area. With WAA and sunny skies continuing until this evening, expect to see the low to mid 40s as a high temperature across the area today (observations already show temps in the low 40s across most of the UP as of this writing). Expect cloud cover to increase from the west late tonight as a cold front approaches the UP; this cloud cover may inhibit fog formation over the western half of Upper MI late tonight as temps at the sfc may be able to stay above the dewpoint.
A high pressure ridge along the west coast will move into our area through Thursday for dry conditions. The inversion weakened today, but will strengthen with the warmer air aloft and lack of any appreciable wind at the lower elevations.
1035 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 (Tonight) Mid/high clouds are beginning to approach NW AL out of the SW, as an upper low/trough pattern digs into the SW states. Otherwise, current temps are trending slightly warmer across the central TN Valley compared to the last few evenings, as high pressure begins to move east of the area, with current readings ranging predom from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Overnight lows still look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 40s, as mid/high clouds gradually spread more to the east.
220 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 High pressure will extend across the Mid Atlantic through Thanksgiving.
A cold front is entering northwest Oklahoma and will gradually make its way southeast through the day. As mentioned in the previous AFD, models are now diving the cut-off low south of New Mexico and letting it hang out for a bit near the Rio Grande River.
1054 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) The main story for the short term period will be the mid-level trough digging into the Plains Thursday bringing a cold front through Deep South Texas Thursday night. We are currently seeing temperatures in the low to mid 60s in the lower Valley with mid to upper 50s north and west. Thursday temperatures will warm up even more with highs in the low to mid 70s and we may even get a few peaks of sun! By Thursday night the aforementioned front begins to move into northern portions of the CWA allowing precipitation chances to increase across the region.
1249 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through tonight and into Thanksgiving Day.
From synopsis, high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will slide eastward into the western Atlantic by the end of the week.
An upper level trough will move across the eastern U.
Temperatures will rise into the 30s today before a cold front passes through later today.
The main story for today is warm/moist air advection ahead of a seasonably weak cold front tracking east across the UP this afternoon and evening. Model soundings show a shallow saturated layer near the surface as near to above freezing dew points move across existing snow cover.
511 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a trough over northern New Mexico with some mid level moisture extending northward across northeast Colorado. As the day progresses, the trough will slide further south and our entire forecast area will be under QG descent. Highs will be below normal with upper 30s to low 40s across the plains and in the 20s to low 30s across the higher terrain.
Not much is reaching the lower elevations with flurries being reported at Meeker. Warm air advection moving in aloft as the western ridge noses in. A closed low over southern New Mexico and another trough tip-toeing into the PacNW will leave the Desert Southwest under a transient ridge of high pressure.
High pressure will remain over western Montana and north central Idaho into Friday. Despite the ridge in place, mid and upper level cloud cover will continue to stream through the region. Consequently, the cloud cover will also keep valley inversions from strengthening as much as they did with the previous ridge of high pressure.
With the aforementioned frontal boundary pushing eastward, would expect any of this low cloud cover to remain to the east of our CWA as drier air pushes in behind the front. Related to this, high temperatures now look to climb into the lower to mid 40s - which is about normal for this time of year. In a slackening pressure gradient, winds will drop off and with clear to partly cloudy skies lows will drop down into the lower to mid 20s. Lows for Friday night should settle on the warm side, in the low to mid 30s.
301 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 The snow across portions of the area early this morning should end before sunrise as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will continue to control the weather and bring dry weather with warmer temperatures. Some areas could be much warmer.
High pressure will be in control through Friday week bringing dry conditions, light winds and warming temperatures.
639 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Air quality issues are potent today under a building ridge.
Temperatures are mostly in the 30s and low 40s with the higher elevations experiencing the warmer temperatures thanks to a strong inversion off the surface. Lows should be several degrees above freezing Friday morning.
An upper level trough will move across the eastern U. today and Friday, but upper level ridging will hold over the Florida peninsula with the associated surface cold front remaining north of the region.
549 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 The cold front has moved through the entire area and visibility is expected to continue to improve this morning.
The aforementioned forcing will push east of the CWA by this afternoon, but still expect the upper trough and attendant cold front currently over the Plains to move into the CWA by later this afternoon and this evening. The HREF shows this trough moving east of the area by late tonight which will bring subsidence in its wake on Friday bringing a dry day. Temperatures will be cooler today with the clouds and the rain, but will still be close to normal.
508 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Air quality issues are potent today under a building ridge.
Sky cover and moisture have been increasing this morning and will continue to do so today as a warm front sitting off the Louisiana coast lifts onshore throughout the day. However, there is a non-zero chance of an isolated tornado forming south of the warm front due to low level helicity and better shear.
A cold front will bring gusty north winds Thanksgiving Day, especially in the lower Colorado River Valley.
530 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 Still not seeing any lower ceilings across the northeast FA, so will go ahead and remove the low precipitation chances there for right around sunrise. So today will be cooler, but still nice with abundant sunshine.
High pressure returns on Friday, with warmer temperatures and light winds expected through the weekend. An upper-level low over New Mexico will continue to meander southward through the day today as a ridge strengthens off the California Coast. Mixing combined with the pressure gradient effects should help to promote gusts in the 30-40 mph range over much of the High Country through this afternoon. In addition the the wind, a sharp drop in temperatures is expected on today with the low overhead. Daytime highs are expected to be around 35-45 deg F over the high country, and 50-60 deg F over the lower elevations.
Models show a cold front, currently extending from southeast Nebraska into the Texas Panhandle, moving into southeast Missouri by around 00z, then through the PAH forecast area by 12z Friday. Rain will end from west to east late tonight with the passage of the cold front.
Only a few high clouds this morning as the upper level ridge builds across the region. The ridge will continue to strengthen the surface inversion. Above the inversion, better mixing will allow temperatures to reach normal in the higher terrain. The ridge will begin to breakdown on late Friday as the flow increases ahead of the next cold front.
This is because aloft, a strong mid/upper level ridge is centered over the western Caribbean Sea and Cuba. This continues to be a source of subsidence and a layer of relatively dry air in the low to mid levels. From synopsis: High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will slide offshore tonight and Friday, as a cold front moves across the region.
Surface ridging will overspread the forecast Friday, which should keep the forecast area dry with high temperatures reaching the 50s areawide.
The sun has finally come out behind a cold front across the western two thirds of our CWA this Thanksgiving Day after starting out with low clouds and fog for much of the morning.
This is much warmer than our previous forecast and NBM guidance, and even near or above the NBM 90th percentile, so had to raise temps several degrees for this afternoon. Dry and slight cooler weather is anticipated for Friday and Friday night, with highs only in the 50s/60s and lows dropping into the 30s per latest NBM.
A period of low clouds and a wind shift to the northwest will accompany a cold frontal passage through the rest of the afternoon and part of the evening. Wet roads over northern WI may become icy in spots as temperatures drop below freezing later this evening and overnight. Stayed with a blend of the warmest guidance sets for temperatures, with highs mostly in the lower to middle 40s.
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 Radar has been showing a few sprinkles across our northwest counties this morning out ahead of a large upper level low over New Mexico. Temperatures are mostly in the 30s and low 40s with the higher elevations experiencing the warmer temperatures thanks to a strong inversion off the surface. Lows should be several degrees above freezing Friday morning.
The cold front has moved through the entire area and visibility is expected to continue to improve this morning.
207 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 The warm front is the main challenge for the short term forecast. Temperatures will increase a couple degrees from today as the warmer air mass advects into our region from Montana.
1020 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 The snow across portions of the area early this morning should end before sunrise as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will continue to control the weather and bring dry weather with warmer temperatures. Some areas could be much warmer.
Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s for all island communities. This is in response to an upper level trough moving eastward into the Hudson Bay with an associated surface feature in the same area. Meanwhile, a potent upper level low is moving out of the Four Corners region and into Texas.
144 PM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 Next 36 hours look tranquil, as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures Friday will reach the low to mid 40s for most locations, with some 50s along the I-25 corridor.
Still not seeing any lower ceilings across the northeast FA, so will go ahead and remove the low precipitation chances there for right around sunrise. So today will be cooler, but still nice with abundant sunshine.
942 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 Radar has been showing a few sprinkles across our northwest counties this morning out ahead of a large upper level low over New Mexico. Temperatures are mostly in the 30s and low 40s with the higher elevations experiencing the warmer temperatures thanks to a strong inversion off the surface. Lows should be several degrees above freezing Friday morning.
239 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 High pressure slides east tonight.
Tonight will continue to be dry with mainly clear skies as upper level ridging moves overhead. Upper level ridge flattens and zonal flow will bring warm dry air aloft. Some of the higher snow depth remains across central ND where the NBM is showing a smallish range of temperatures that generally hover around the low 40s. Areas with not as much snow have higher confidence of getting into the 40s, with some areas in the southwest starting to show high confidence of getting into the low 50s. For now blended the NBM with the NBM 75th and NBM 90th that warmed most areas into the lower to mid 40s.
301 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Discussion/Marine - Scattered rain showers tonight The warm air advection ahead of the cold front has generated a few showers near Grand Rapids and Muskegon. The cold front was pushing southeast of Minneapolis at this time with little or no precipitation along it.
1255 PM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 The upper trough is pushing into the Great Lakes region, while a ridge builds over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure is spreading into our CWA. The broad upper ridge will shift eastward over the northern states Friday, as a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As winds become southwesterly ahead of the approaching low-level trough, strong WAA will commence across the northern plains.
The upper trough over the southern Plains will gradually drift eastward tonight as it gets picked up by the northern stream. Forecast soundings indicate the column saturating in the lowest levels generally after 06Z tonight when the highest rain chances are expected.
A rather complex synoptic pattern has set up with a ridge over the northern Rockies, a trough near the Great Lakes, and a deep closed low along the Rio Grande. At the surface, high pressure takes control of the central and northern Plains. Northwest winds have gusted above 30 mph today in the wake of a strong cold front.
A warm frontal boundary will lift ahead of the system likely between 00-02Z. However, this will being to lift north as a warm front again with showery activity increasing Friday night.
High pressure will continue to weakly ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the northeast through Friday, with winds remaining less than 10 knots.
Latest model/ensemble runs continue to keep the upper level cut-off cyclone down near the Texas/Mexico border before ejecting northeastward through the region. Low stratus has remained over most of the region, with portions of northwestern and northern Oklahoma beginning to clear well behind the cold front. As the upper level cyclone begins moving to the northeast from western Texas, cloud cover will begin to increase ahead of the cyclone.
Skies have cleared nicely for most of the region due to high pressure over the Pacific Northwest.
619 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Light rain is expected tonight and early Friday with a crossing cold front.
348 PM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 The upper trough is pushing into the Great Lakes region, while a ridge builds over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure is spreading into our CWA. The broad upper ridge will shift eastward over the northern states Friday, as a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As winds become southwesterly ahead of the approaching low-level trough, strong WAA will commence across the northern plains.
422 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Light rain is expected tonight and early Friday with a crossing cold front.
High pressure returns on Friday, with warmer temperatures and light winds expected through the weekend. A cold and windy Thanksgiving day is underway across northern Arizona due to an upper level low that has now moved into southwestern New Mexico. Temperatures today have remained in the 30s - 40s in the mountains with 40s - 50s in the lower terrain. High pressure over the region will result in waring temperatures and lighter winds.
817 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Update/Aviation A weak cold front is moving through the Great Lakes region this evening. As the front moves east on Friday, the lower ceilings should clear out from the TAF sites by 16Z or so. - Scattered rain showers tonight The warm air advection ahead of the cold front has generated a few showers near Grand Rapids and Muskegon. The cold front was pushing southeast of Minneapolis at this time with little or no precipitation along it.
(The rest of tonight) Dry air will continue to work into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight behind a cold front still moving across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas.
At the surface, high pressure currently over the area will drift southward tonight ahead of a trough that will dig down the lee of the Rockies on Friday. Winds have been out of the northwest today, and will shift to the southwest tonight and Friday, allowing warmer air to be ushered into the region.
Cooler air with breezy conditions will continue into Friday as high temperatures run a few degrees below normal. Warmer temperatures can be anticipated over the weekend.
Otherwise, drier air will filter into northeast Oklahoma and eventually far northwest Arkansas later tonight as a cold front pushes south across the area.
910 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022 Light rain is expected tonight and early Friday with a crossing cold front.
518 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 The warm front is the main challenge for the short term forecast. Temperatures will increase a couple degrees from today as the warmer air mass advects into our region from Montana.
Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at NWS Quad Cities! Clouds have largely stuck around our region on this Turkey Day, thanks to increased moisture ahead of a cold front that will eventually sweep through the region late this afternoon and early evening. 1) Dry conditions through the day Friday into the weekend, with decreasing cloud cover late tonight into Friday morning Any lingering precipitation ahead of the cold front will gradually come to an end this evening as the front scours out the moisture. Highs Friday will warm into the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. High pressure continues to slide east, leaving us in southerly return flow.
347 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 A rather complex synoptic pattern has set up with a ridge over the northern Rockies, a trough near the Great Lakes, and a deep closed low along the Rio Grande. At the surface, high pressure takes control of the central and northern Plains. Northwest winds have gusted above 30 mph today in the wake of a strong cold front.