Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight's lows will be in the low to mid 60s with Wednesday highs in the low 90s west to low 80s east with 70s along the coast. Wednesday night will be a touch warmer lows in the mid to upper 60s. Low pressure over the central plains will continue to lead to a tightening pressure gradient with moderate winds continuing through tonight and breezy conditions expected once again on Wednesday.
Temperatures will stay around normal with cooler temperatures in Sheridan County and along the ND/SD border, with the slightly above freezing temperatures in Sheridan County, most of the roads will become slushy throughout the day today and should melt by tonight.
/issued 305 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021/ Tonight through Thursday, upper level ridging and high pressure over the Gulf will be the main pattern, so rain chances will be low for these days.
Water shows large trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front has swept through our entire CWFA with gusty northwest winds. Another band of heavy snow now looks more likely from the NEB panhandle northeast through southwest SD, especially from around Pine Ridge northeastward to south of Philip. Western CONUS Trof gets pinched off by northern stream trof Thursday.
Winds should subside for most locations late this evening, but will remain elevated into the night over ridges. While no individual system is impressive, accumulated snow over the higher terrain of Central and Southern Utah could be noteworthy. An approaching short wave trough will bring increasing chances for snow showers this evening with best chances for light snow at the terminal between 06-12Z.
Once again another closed low will be dropping down across the west coast, settling over the southern CA coastal region by the end of the period. A surface cold front will be dropping down across the southern Plains during the period, and will begin to stall out late in the period near the northwest corner of the state. SPC currently has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in portions of northern and northwest AR during the period, which will be associated with greater lift in the vicinity of the cold front.
100 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Did a quick update to the T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends capturing the ongoing large ridge to valley temperature differences. Have tweaked the hourly temperature grids to account for this trend, but the lows still look to be on track. A large scale positively tilted trough aloft was over the western and north central CONUS. Ridge/valley differences can be expected with the dry air mass and warm air advection, but exactly which valleys can decouple and where temperatures settle is the question. The period Thursday begins with a positively tilted trough axis across the western US and a ridge off Atlantic Coast. A surface cold front will get stuck in between these features from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains.
By the afternoon, the dryline will have moved eastward to around the Kansas Turnpike corridor, with a cold front approaching north-central Kansas from Nebraska. As the cold front moves southeast and merges with the dryline tomorrow evening, our first thunderstorms of the year will develop along and behind the front in northeast and east-central Kansas. The deep upper trough over the Southwest CONUS will slowly approach the Plains late week and into the weekend.
The expansion of the low level moisture axis from TX into the lower MS River valley will support continued low chances of showers north of I-40 on Thursday.
Tonight a cold front which as of 4pm is located near Thedford will slowly push southward into the northern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures are currently trending a bit cooler than previously forecast, but not much. Also, a Canadian cold front will likely move south over the Hi-Line after 18Z, shifting winds more northerly there and possibly bringing in lower VFR ceilings by 00Z.
251 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 A warm front will lift across PA today and tonight, brining even more warmth to the region. Some rain will occur along and in advance of a cold front dropping down from the north late this week. Much cooler weather is then in store for weekend.
A cold front will reach central Missouri and central Illinois in the afternoon.
On Wednesday, an approaching low will bring noticeably cooler temperatures, along with increasing chances for rain and snow across western Arizona during the afternoon/evening timeframe.
One of note will spin up a surface cyclone over the central Plains later tonight and lift northeast into the Great Lakes Region. The center of the low lifts into the Upper Midwest by Wednesday night, pushing a cold front through the area.
343 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Expect increasing clouds and wind today as high pressure exits east. Showers and windy conditions will accompany a cold front on Thursday.
Will still be breezy and mild ahead of the main low and trailing cold front. The cold front will advance through southern WI. We should see some shra/tsra with this cold front. Gusty west winds will bring in a cooler and drier airmass after the fropa.
1006 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 A large anticyclone parked over the southeastern states is responsible for the tight pressure gradient over the Keys and coastal waters, which has resulted in strong northeast to east breezes across the area. This scenario will not change much overnight and through tomorrow as a blocking pattern sets up over the east coast and a high amplitude trough digs into the west coast. With the ridge creeping slowly towards the east, winds will remain fresh to strong through Wednesday evening. Strong east northeast breezes, resulting from strong high pressure sitting over the southeastern states, should persist through Wednesday evening.
Have tweaked the hourly temperature grids to account for this trend, but the lows still look to be on track. A large scale positively tilted trough aloft was over the western and north central CONUS. Ridge/valley differences can be expected with the dry air mass and warm air advection, but exactly which valleys can decouple and where temperatures settle is the question. The period Thursday begins with a positively tilted trough axis across the western US and a ridge off Atlantic Coast. A surface cold front will get stuck in between these features from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains.
Temperatures are currently trending a bit cooler than previously forecast, but not much. Also, a Canadian cold front will likely move south over the Hi-Line around 18z, shifting winds more northerly there and possibly bringing in lower VFR ceilings by 00Z.
Seasonably cool and showery weather will persist through Wednesday as broad low pressure off the Pac NW coast drifts southeast into California.
At the surface, a circulation rounding high pressure situated along the East Coast was providing light SSE winds. Highs on Wednesday should reach the middle 70s for most (lower 70s atop the higher plateaus). On Thursday, upper 70s for most areas (middle 70s atop the higher plateaus). This will occur as south-southwest flow increases in low levels, while the 5h ridge remains in place over the Gulf of Mexico, and the surface and 8h highs remain over the southeast U.
These temperatures are due to high pressure over the area, aided by gusty winds that will continue to increase this afternoon. This corresponds to the NAEFS/EC/GEFS ensembles showing anomalous PWATs that should accompany the warm front and move through Northern Michigan Wednesday afternoon. QPF continues to trend downward with the warm front with a quarter to half an inch now possible north of Muskegon. Instability will continue to increase as a short wave trough will aid the cold frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday.
High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions through the TAF period with just some high cirrus at times. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 50 72 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 50 71 53 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 50 70 53 70 / 0 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 44 70 48 66 / 0 0 0 10 40.
Upper trough over the Rockies will eject northeastward into eastern SD today, then lift into the arrowhead of MN. Low pressure will track to our south and east, deepening as it moves into eastern MN.
635 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Expect increasing clouds and wind today as high pressure exits east. Showers and windy conditions will accompany a cold front on Thursday.
At the surface, low pressure currently draped across the Southern Plains will deepen today as it lifts off to the northeast.
The headlines will remain in effect today until 5 PM MST due to heavy snow along a cold front. Temperatures today will be much cooler than they have been the last few days with our highs in a mere 30s and low 40s (if you're lucky) and lows tonight in the teens and 20s with the coldest temperatures to the north and west. This low strengthened very quickly and is dropping higher snowfall amounts than we were initially forecasting, but because the temperatures were so warm yesterday and are still relatively warm, the actual accumulation amounts are hard to forecast.
Mid level ridging will persist across the southeastern CONUS as a mid level trough forms over the western CONUS.
An upper level ridge will help keep any significant shower activity out of the forecast until the end of the weekend when a storm system over the Plains kicks a weak cold front into the forecast area. This is allowing for southerly flow in the low levels off the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge however, looks to build up from central old Mexico and the southern Gulf to keep mid levels dry and a cap over the atmosphere that should limit any significant shower activity.
Thursday the upper low on the West Coast will dig down into southern California. The longwave trough will continue to stretch out across Wyoming and into the northern plains. As the upper low begins to cut off and drifts a bit east models indicated a weak shot of energy into southern Wyoming. An upper level low pressure system over the SW U.
Modest additional mixing of the low-level jet this morning should bring more persistent gusts in the 40-45 knot range into at least early afternoon. Gradient relaxes late this afternoon as the Pacific front moves in and the Canadian cold front sinks into north- central Kansas.
High temperatures today are expected to be mainly in the middle 70s for most locations except slightly cooler along the immediate coast.
If not, and we get rain, ground temperatures are slightly above freezing, and air temperatures will be around the freezing point, which would probably limit any ice with negligible public impacts.
Beyond today, southern portion of western CONUS trof gets pinched off. with the low slowly moving through the four corners region.
An approaching low will bring noticeably cooler temperatures today, along with increasing chances for rain and snow across western Arizona this afternoon and evening.
Upper pattern features broad troughing over the western United Sates with a closed off low moving into Northern California. Pattern will be slow to change with the upper low only making it into southern California by the end of the period. Meanwhile, upper level high pressure will be strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico keeping the pronounced southwest flow in place.
The highest speeds will be late morning into early evening. Underneath a strong mid level capping inversion due to the southwesterly flow aloft, the low level jet could generate patchy drizzle or light showers during the morning hours, before it mixes out.
Isolated convection is also possible in proximity to the dryline / cold front intersection late this afternoon with the most likely area of initiation remaining north and west of the forecast area.
Dry and cooler air will then return for the weekend. A limiting factor will be warm frontal rain moving in overnight, with evaporational cooling and saturation of the mixed layer helping to stabilize the lower atmosphere, thus keeping the stronger winds from mixing down. A low pressure system will bring rain through much of the day Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible, especially just ahead of the cold front as it moves across the area from northwest to southeast during the mid to late afternoon.
Tightening low pressure fields and a strengthening LLJ (~45kts) will allow gusty conditions this afternoon.
Cooler today with a chance of snow over the far southern James River Valley. Longwave trough persists over the western United States. Temperatures today will be generally cooler, especially south central and southeast where cloud cover and precipitation should keep the diurnal curve flattened. Highs range from the low 40s northwest to the low 30s in the areas of the southern James River where snow is expected. Going into this weekend the story remains the same as the previous shift with a closed low expected to develop out of the southwest into the southern/central Plains, below a strong upper ridge over the Northern Plains. The previous forecast discussed the outside potential for a wetter solution, though unlikely based on the blocking pattern.
731 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Dry and warm conditions continue today before rain chances return on Thursday and Thursday night with a slow moving cold front. Dry weather and above-average temperatures continue today as the ern-CONUS high pressure finally slips east into the Atlantic. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening with increasingly moist flow in advance of our next cold front.
Broad high pressure continues to ridge southwest along the eastern seaboard, over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure ridging in from the northeast will produce rain- free conditions and gusty east-northeast winds through the end of the week and into the weekend.
343 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Current observations show the going short term forecast is on track as temperatures hover near freezing across Sheridan and Cherry counties. Despite mostly sunny skies on Thursday, cold air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -4 degree C range will keep temperatures on the cooler side. A few isolated locations generally southeast of a line from Imperial to O'Neill may be lucky and see a high in the low 50s.
416 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Cooler today with a chance of snow over the far southern James River Valley. Longwave trough persists over the western United States. Temperatures today will be generally cooler, especially south central and southeast where cloud cover and precipitation should keep the diurnal curve flattened. Highs range from the low 40s northwest to the low 30s in the areas of the southern James River where snow is expected. Going into this weekend the story remains the same as the previous shift with a closed low expected to develop out of the southwest into the southern/central Plains, below a strong upper ridge over the Northern Plains. The previous forecast discussed the outside potential for a wetter solution, though unlikely based on the blocking pattern.
334 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Changing weather ahead with a storm system targeting the plains During the predawn hours, a surface cold frontal boundary had moved into portions of our region. Isolated convection developed in our northeast zones along the boundary, but convection quickly focused to our east on the nose of the low level jet. An upper trough lifting out of the north central Rockies across Neb into south Dakota may produce a little light rain in our northern counties today.
The closed low pressure system that was responsible for snowy weather across north-central Idaho and parts of western Montana over the last few days is moving south towards California. Some lingering moisture may be present to fuel isolated snow showers over the higher terrain of the Clearwaters, Bitterroots, Missions, and the Glacier Park region. Highs should top out in the 50s for many valley locations by the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies starting on Thursday.
Changing weather ahead with a storm system targeting the plains During the predawn hours, a surface cold frontal boundary had moved into portions of our region. Isolated convection developed in our northeast zones along the boundary, but convection quickly focused to our east on the nose of the low level jet. An upper trough lifting out of the north central Rockies across Neb into south Dakota may produce a little light rain in our northern counties today.
403 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Dry and warm conditions continue today before rain chances return on Thursday and Thursday night with a slow moving cold front. Dry weather and above-average temperatures continue today as the ern-CONUS high pressure finally slips east into the Atlantic. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening with increasingly moist flow in advance of our next cold front.
Underneath a strong mid level capping inversion due to the southwesterly flow aloft, the low level jet could generate patchy drizzle or light showers during the morning hours, before it mixes out.
-Cold front works through the region this evening leading to thunderstorms. By late in the day, cold front is expected to approach northwestern Missouri. As the cold front continues to work farther southeast this evening, expect thunderstorms to develop as strong short wave moves from southwestern Nebraska into western Iowa. Front is expected to stall near the I-44 corridor, and with slow moving upper trough to the west through the weekend, a prolonged threat for rainfall in the vicinity of the front appears likely.
554 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Current observations show the going short term forecast is on track as temperatures hover near freezing across Sheridan and Cherry counties. Despite mostly sunny skies on Thursday, cold air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -4 degree C range will keep temperatures on the cooler side. A few isolated locations generally southeast of a line from Imperial to O'Neill may be lucky and see a high in the low 50s.
The cooler eastern valleys that bottomed out in the 30s this morning have warmed into the 40s. Still looking at max temps in the lower to middle 70s as south winds increase into the 10-20 mph range. The upper ridge will continue building into the region as high pressure centers over the Gulf of Mexico. Believe high pressure will remain dominant through the short term forecast, with temperatures rising each day through the end of the work week.
Another beautiful day on tap here across the Tennessee Valley as an upper ridge axis begins to center over the Atlantic Coast and southwest flow continues aloft. The upper ridge will continue building into the region as high pressure centers over the Gulf of Mexico. Believe high pressure will remain dominant through the short term forecast, with temperatures rising each day through the end of the work week.
A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing widespread rain and some thunderstorms.
Temperatures might drop a couple more degrees before sunrise, but most locations will remain in/around their current 3 AM temperatures that range from the upper 50s to the low to mid 60s. Partly cloudy skies this evening will likely become mostly cloudy to cloudy tonight through early Thursday morning, and low temperatures in the low to mid 60s can be anticipated. Thursday's high temperatures may end up a degree or two warmer than today's highs, and there also might be some isolated shower development.
/issued 205 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021/ A deep layer ridge stretching from Central Mexico across the Florida Peninsula Will build in response to a digging trough in the Western U.
Low pressure is spinning off the coast of Northern California and sending moderate to occasionally heavy (near Mt Shasta City) precipitation into Northern California and extreme Southern Oregon this morning. Our attention then turns to what this upper low and it's associated energy will produce over our forecast area this afternoon. The high-end potential (10 percent chance) for the mountain passes is about 10 inches of snow from this afternoon through the overnight hours from Crater Lake northward. As the upper low to the south moves farther away late tonight into Thursday morning, precipitation chances diminish over the area.
VFR through the period as high pressure continues to dominate. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 73 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 71 53 70 52 / 0 0 10 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 49 71 53 69 51 / 0 0 10 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 71 48 65 46 / 0 0 10 40 30.
Even though the gusts will be on the low end of advisory criteria, mainly over portions of central/northeast Missouri and west central Illinois, will issue a wind advisory for this area from 17z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Deepening upper level trough is still progged to come onshore over the southwestern U. Highs on Thursday will depend on location of the cold front, cloud cover and precipitation. Byrd Since there is still a lot of uncertainty on where the cold front will stall out at, confidence of exactly how much rainfall can be expected is hard to pin down at this time.
1205 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Changing weather ahead with a storm system targeting the plains During the predawn hours, a surface cold frontal boundary had moved into portions of our region. Isolated convection developed in our northeast zones along the boundary, but convection quickly focused to our east on the nose of the low level jet. An upper trough lifting out of the north central Rockies across Neb into south Dakota may produce a little light rain in our northern counties today.
Scattered showers are expected to develop this afternoon as an upper level low off the coast of northern California will continue to spread instability into Oregon.
Upper level ridging continues to strengthen and become more defined over the Gulf of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche today into Thursday promoting large scale subsidence over our region. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic, encompassing a large area into the southeastern U. Being on the southwestern periphery of the high, low level flow will generally be southeasterly helping to increase low level moisture content today and Thursday, and likewise promoting the development of some low level fair weather cumulus. Temperatures will generally be on the warm side of guidance, with our late morning temperatures so far already edging on the high side of model guidance. Similarly, Thursday should evolve the same way with highs in the middle to upper 70's, and isolated spots possibly reaching the lower 80's.
A forecast update is in place which moves the rain snow line east about 20 miles, raises precipitation chances and removes the mention of freezing rain. The potential for accumulated ice viz freezing rain appears fairly low in the HRRR and RAP. Current observations show the going short term forecast is on track as temperatures hover near freezing across Sheridan and Cherry counties. Despite mostly sunny skies on Thursday, cold air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -4 degree C range will keep temperatures on the cooler side. A few isolated locations generally southeast of a line from Imperial to O'Neill may be lucky and see a high in the low 50s.
At least Thursday should have a weakening ridge to the east and overall less dry airmass under more SW flow aloft so not anticipating RH based fire weather concerns then. Expect lows tonight a tad warmer than climo in the mid to upper 40s for most areas and moderating even warmer for Thursday night in upper 40s/low 50s.
Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the low 60s, with afternoon highs tomorrow ranging in the upper 70s and low 80s. However, by tonight, a cold front will begin dropping south through Oklahoma, and this front will allow for some shower and thunderstorm development north of I-30.
This ridging will remain strong enough to keep any weather well to the north of the area through the end of the week and into the weekend. An area of low pressure develops over the central U. The ridge will slightly weaken and flatten out, but should keep most of the weather to the north.