Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING PAH AT THIS HOUR WITH -SHRA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. SHAMBURGER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA. WITH THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 18Z OR SO. WITH THE NAM HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK THANKS TO CAA FOLLOWING FROPA AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 8C-12C OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL SLIGHTLY COOL OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY CENTER AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS TODAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRIER BUT NOT THAT MUCH COOLER.
1145 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
SHARP UPPER TROF BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING US AN EARLY PREVIEW OF MID OR LATE OCTOBER TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF STARTS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA, BUT WE'LL HAVE JUST ENOUGH OF A NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.
422 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
351 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN WHAT SHOULD BE A REALLY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ABOUT 100MB DEEP CENTERED AROUND 700MB LATE TONIGHT. IT IS QUITE DRY BENEATH THE SATURATED LAYER THANKS TO OUR RECENT COLD FRONT.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN. ALL SMALL- SCALE MODELS SHOW CURRENT MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AS THE COLD FRONT LINES EVERYTHING UP.
1010 PM PDT FRI SEP 11 2015 Some cooling over the weekend with a threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. CI/AC OVERTOPPING RIDGE AND MOVING THROUGH DAKOTAS. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AND THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
250 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL WILL KEEP A DRY FCST FOR SUN AND THEN HAVE 20-30% POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MON AFTN. THUS WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON THU MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WRM BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
610 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED S OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -RA EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO S TX. WENT WITH THE LOWEST VSBY FOR THE VCT TAF SITE DUE TO HAVING LESS WIND AND DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS LONGER THAN THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER SATURDAY MORNING. WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT COOLER FROM EARLIER RAIN.
256 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. HAS BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND TO THE MID STATE. COLD FRONT. CHARACTERISTIC OF EARLY AUTUMN NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID WEST BUT SHORT WAVES HAVE A WAY OF FINDING IT ONCE NEARING THE BASE OF A TROUGH.
559 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 Surface ridging dominating the area this morning with a cool and dry air mass continuing to work its way into the area. Expect lows to continue dropping through the morning into the middle to upper 40s across the entire area, with the exception of the heart of the KC metro, where urban heat island should keep lows in the lower 50s.
347 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVERHEAD. MIXING TO ABOUT 900 MB SUNDAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER TODAY.
134 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
356 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 Surface ridging dominating the area this morning with a cool and dry air mass continuing to work its way into the area. Expect lows to continue dropping through the morning into the middle to upper 40s across the entire area, with the exception of the heart of the KC metro, where urban heat island should keep lows in the lower 50s.
The main weather impact will hold off until late week when the chance of thunderstorms returns with the approach of a cold front.
618 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO REGION. NARROW MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE ON THE EASTERN FLANK A THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THIS MORNING. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND LLVL FLOW OFF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
210 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
402 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2015 Dry weather and warm temperatures will continue this weekend for western Montana and central Idaho as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Forecast models have backed off somewhat on winds Sunday afternoon, but the model consensus still favors breezy winds in the late afternoon, especially over the higher terrain of western Montana. The ridge begins to buckle Sunday, giving way to westerly flow and eventually southwesterly flow.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MONROE LA TO COLLEGE STATION TO SAN ANGELO.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS WORKING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO SETS UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE CWA WILL SEE HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WARMEST IN THE WEST WHERE GRADIENT BETWEEN LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS STRONGEST.
436 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
UPPER TROF IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE BROADER TROF IS OVER CENTRAL WI. IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVING SOUTH. THOSE SPOTS WILL BE NEAR 40F TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
336 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 Quick northerly flow aloft as strong jet dives south along west edge of deepening upper low to the northwest. The warm air advection and more cloud should keep lows a few degrees warmer than this morning. High temperatures should warm into the lower to middle 80s. Winds will remain from the south as the boundary layer remains mixed through Sunday night, so expect warmer overnight temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
OBSERVED HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER SATURDAY. COULD SEE CRITICAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID TEEN PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY. CHANGES BEGIN SUNDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LONG-AWAITED BIG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE REGION AND WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY LATER ON TODAY. AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER. PASSING UPPER RIDGE PROTECTION.
THE PATTERN FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. AS WE HEAD THRU THE DAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA. UNTIL THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
134 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS NW KANSAS ALONG A LEE TROUGH. A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ON WED AFTERNOON. THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL VENTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH-TN VALLEYS WILL BACK THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SWLY THOUGH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO RESIDE IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT A DRIER COOLER AIR MASS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
329 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO REGION. NO THE MIDPR TOD K NARROW MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE ON THE EASTERN FLANK A THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THIS MORNING. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND LLVL FLOW OFF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
Large upper trof will deepen over the eastern conus next 36 hours, then move east, with a transition from zonal to SW flow expected late in the weekend as the trof moves east. High pressure will be stagnant over the central and southern Appalachians. The 500 mb ridge over the southeastern states is forecast to be strongest around mid-week. A gradual erosion of the ridge from the north appears likely by the end of the week. They are also slower to erode the ridge late in the week.
LOW-END-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT EASES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE WEST TODAY.
THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS LAGS A LITTLE TO THE WEST WITH THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE AIRPORTS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS PROG ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 A deep 500 mb trough coincident with 500 mb temperatures as low as -24 C is centered over the western Great Lakes this morning with low level northerly flow over Lake Michigan.
327 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE COMPLEX DUMPING DOWN WITH IT/S LEE SIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL MOVING ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS INTO SOUTHERN MS RVR VALLEY. THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP L/W TROF THAT HAS AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY REGION. IF SKIES CAN REMAIN REASONABLY CLEAR AND CIRRUS STREAK DUMPING DOWN WITH UPPER JET ENERGY INTO THE TROF BASE CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
629 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
THE END TO THE UNSEASONABLE HOT STRETCH CONTINUES TO APPROACH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEAKENS. WITH MOISTURE REACHING THE HIGHER RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES INCREASE.
Thermal trough aloft will remain in place and this will keep high temperatures in check, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Center of high pressure will be over the region tonight and this will be our coolest portion of the forecast with lows into the 40s area wide, with low 40s possible over the eastern Ozarks.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A LOWER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA IN ITS WAKE. A DRIER AIRMASS IS BRIDGING THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS NEARLY PUSHED THROUGH OUR SRN TIER IN DEEP E TX AND CNTRL LA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 937 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
317 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 A deep 500 mb trough coincident with 500 mb temperatures as low as -24 C is centered over the western Great Lakes this morning with low level northerly flow over Lake Michigan.
412 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RELATIVELY STRONG /80-100KT/ SOUTHERN STREAM UPR JET DRIVING THE RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR HOWEVER IS STILL BACK ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AIDED BY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE STATE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH -22C H5 COLD CORE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY MID TO UPR 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN STATE LINE.
458 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW LARGE UPR TROF ACRS THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES ON W-SW WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROF. MEANWHILE A SFC COLD FRONT. A TASTE OF FALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION WANE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND END COMPLETELY BY SUNSET THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOW-END-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT EASES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLY ENTERING NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY. A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
524 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL TRANSITION FM THE CURRENT REGIME WITH A WRN RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROF. TO ONE WITH A TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FLANKED BY RIDGES OVER THE ERN PAC AND ERN NOAM. AND SUNDAY A QUIET PERIOD AS ANTICYCLONE PASSES TO THE SW OF THE AREA.
246 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TODAY.
322 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
1143 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED ONSLAUGHT OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE LINDA PUSHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND IN RESPONSE.
A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BRINGS IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMP. 01 CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAVE RIDGING DOMINATE THRU PERIOD AND KEEP MAJORITY OF AREA DRY. BETTER PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR STILL BACK ACROSS NRN MS/WRN TN. AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SE OVERNIGHT.
402 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN FORMING TODAY. CHANCES WOULD FAVOR MORE OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.
407 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING BRIEFLY ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WHILE THIS LIFT IS OVER THE AREA. BUT THEN THE NEXT BATCH OF LIFT WILL BE HEADING INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS THE UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DIVES INTO THE REGION. KEEPING MIXING HEIGHTS ON THE LOW END TODAY.
330 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A TASTE OF FALL TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WAS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING.
331 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 MORE FALL-LIKE AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL MAKE FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. PRES FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS ALSO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT.
144 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY A DESCENDING TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE NEW ENGLAND AREA ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. ALOFT A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION DELIVERING US SUNNY SKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST WHILE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S.
DID INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C SUPPORTS THIS THREAT UNTIL THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ICE CRYSTALS TO REACH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS. FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW LINGER INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST WITH REGION REMAINING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
217 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST ENTERED WESTERN COLORADO.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING PERIOD FOR THE DISTRICT.
246 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FURTHER WEST TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAINLY BECAUSE OF A BAND OF CIRRUS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WHICH IS THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. SOME ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH AT LEAST THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS LATER IN THE NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.
155 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT DRIFTS EAST MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
The most significant snow impact will be near Glacier Park, particularly along the Highway 2 corridor east of Columbia Falls. Clouds will begin to break up a bit late tonight across the area, with mixture of freezing fog and low stratus clouds developing within mid-elevation valleys (such as Flathead and Missoula Valleys). This freezing fog will produce hazardous travel conditions, including low visibility and previously wet roads refreezing. Considering that high pressure will be strengthening across the region as well tonight, this freezing fog may last through much of Monday daytime. Valleys that maintain daytime freezing fog will experience very little afternoon warmth.
THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS THE WETTEST MODEL AND DOES SUGGEST A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. KRC A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON MON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE NWSIDE OF THE LOW. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SOME CONCERN ABOUT A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW FOR KRSL AND KSLN BY 12Z/MON. BUT OTHER HI-RES MODELS AND THE GFS AS DRIER IN THE LOW LAYERS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MT TO KIEN TO NORTHEAST NE. WATER VAPOUR MATINEE PROJECTED UPPER TROUGH FROM AB/SK TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NE THIS EVENING.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1028 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. /ISSUED 537 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WARMER CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
However, within a few hours of sunrise, light winds on the western edge of the calm ridge center are expected over parts of the Florida panhandle, and possibly as far inland as southeast Alabama.
1201 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
235 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
245 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.