Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LIFT BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOWS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM COLORADO AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLIER THURSDAY SO HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOUND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION.
910 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 COASTAL SHOWERS/TROUGH ARE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND AS FAR AS INTERSTATE 95 AND JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL. INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE E AND THEN SE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
VFR conditions will persist at all terminals thereafter, with a wind shift from the SW to the NW behind the cold front. BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH.
OTHER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE IN OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA WHERE THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG HIGHWAY 20. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE ENE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND LOW SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA.
Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains.
1215 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN NEBRASKA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT REACHING MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW DOWN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS THAT WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
907 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 A 996 mb low pressure center over SW corner of Iowa this evening will continue to deepen and move northeastward through southern Wisconsin overnight, with a rich plume of moist air ahead of the low providing for continued showers much of the night over central IL. Instability has diminished over central IL to the point where no thunderstorms currently active over the area, however as the low moves northeastward better instability is progged to again cross over central IL overnight leading to a return of thunderstorms. Latest water vapor imagery shows a sharp upper trough extending from the western Plains to southern California.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENTS ELEVATED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 25 TO 35 KTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS EVENING BRING NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS TO ALL TERMINALS BTWN 31/04Z TO 31/06Z. THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL HELP KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING.
1109 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HYDRO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN NEBRASKA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT REACHING MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW DOWN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS THAT WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
633 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows a sharp upper trough extending from the western Plains to southern California.
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT EXPECT COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WHILE IN WESTERN VALLEYS EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
1002 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
632 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/ AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH WINDS AND HEIGHT FIELDS RELAXING. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR OR JUST ON THE LOW END OF WIND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. RMCQUEEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- DEEP RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA THIS EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE GULF MEXICO.
WEAK THETA-E RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE AT 12Z AS WELL.
1038 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 AN UPR LEVEL TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THIS IS DISPLACED FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN GA THRU SERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. FORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST FURTHER S-SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SFC WAVE EXISTS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN LIFT TO VFR UNTIL A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. -RA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 30/08Z AS THIS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH CIGS GRADUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AFTER 30/14Z.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW WELL S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. A THICKER LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF.
243 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATOCU LYR TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BY WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY E FROM THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACRS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE FCST AND SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS N OF I 80. MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING RIDGING BY ERLY IN THE WEEK. ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE BRIEFLY SEEN BY DAYBREAK.
146 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES WEDNESDAY.
243 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 A BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS FACILITATED A PROLONGED BAND OF SNOW FROM NEAR MANKATO TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO TO EAU CLAIRE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SUPPLY JUST ENOUGH ENERGY TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW.
925 AM PST TUE DEC 29 2015 FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE SUBSIDED AND TODAY SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WILL CERTAINLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY COAST/VALLEY AREAS.
326 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROF WITH SEVERAL WEAK CUTOFF CIRCULATIONS LOLLYGAGGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHER PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EAST COAST AND EAST COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST AN UPPER TROUGH IS PIVOT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HEADED NORTHEAST. A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH HAS STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DRAW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GENERAL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH/LEFTOVER FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTHWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TO THE STATE IS RACING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AROUND 650 MB THAT HAD WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS BACK WEST NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NRN IA. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 13 AND 18Z AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO EASTERN MOST TIERS OF COUNTIES FROM ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THEM.
354 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.
STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF A WEAK EAST/WEST ORIENTED TROUGH ACROSS SRN WI. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VARYING QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM ON THE HIGHER SIDE AND THE ECMWF ON THE LOWER END.
1231 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 Series of upper troughs move over the area keeping cold weather in the forecast. An upper trough will swing over the area but not bring much with it.
457 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
A DRY SLOT MAY KEEP PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OK CLEARER THAN OTHERS, BUT STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS BOTH WESTERN AND EASTERN OK WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH RESULTING IN INCREASED CIRROSTRATUS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS IN ADDITION TO WHAT REMAINS ON THE ROADS FROM THE LAST STORM SYSTEM. A MODEST WARM-UP IS ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS RETURN WITH SOME MID- LEVEL RIDGING.
A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the region by late week and into the weekend promoting strong valley inversions, fog and low clouds, but clearing skies in the mountains. Minor adjustments were made to the weather grids to extend the freezing fog north to include the Ritzville area of the basin this morning. Once the parent upper low, presently centered over the northern panhandle of Idaho, drops southeast overnight, the light snow will end. This will leave the building ridge and strengthening low level inversions the weather problem of note, along with the resulting valley fog and low stratus. The persistent ridge will put a lid on the atmosphere, bringing about air stagnation issues for all the valleys across the forecast area.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND MOISTURE DEEPENS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AND COASTAL REACHES WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. QPF VALUES MAY NOT BE VERY HIGH BUT UPWARDS OF A QUARTER OF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENS SO DO THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS.
345 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHTAND WEDNESDAY.
COVERAGE THEN BECOMES FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE COAST TOMORROW AS A WEAK COASTAL TROF DEVELOPS.
221 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TODAY. ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR THE WINTRY MIX TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS. AND PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH TEMPS REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION HERE AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE FREEZING POINT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AROUND 5K-10K AGL AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THESE PLACES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO BETTER MIXING AS THE LOCALLY SHALLOW ARCTIC-LIKE AIR WILL ERODE AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS STILL SOMEWHAT MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
/ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
122 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING.
306 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW REMAINED ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE BASE OF A TROUGH WAS ROUNDING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH AT 500HPA LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY A TRICKY ROLE IN THE LOW TEMPS. UPPED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE TOWARD THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE AS THE MODELS UNDERESTIMATED TUESDAYS HIGHS. WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY HELP WITH WARMER TEMPS.
TWO SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP PERIODS OF -SN GOING AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SW MT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF KGTF/KHVR/KLWT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
125 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
1134 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
242 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 A fairly deep trough over the Southern Rockies will kick out into the Plains tonight, weakening steadily as it does so. Upper pattern behind Wednesday morning's system will stay fairly steady for much of the remainder of the week, with high-amplitude ridging over the West Coast and flat troughing downstream across the eastern two thirds of the U.
KLCH RADAR REMAINS FREE OF PRECIP AS A DEEPER LYR OF DRY AIR SITS ATOP THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. A RETURN TO MVFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO THE TAF SITES AS EARLY AS 03Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z AS THE GULF FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMER AIR OVER THE COOLER SURFACE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT AS YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT NOW ORIENTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF RETREATS WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OLD MEXICO.
139 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
1055 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS WERE STILL MANAGING TO SURVIVE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NW OF THE AREA.
237 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY AS A STRONG INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS KEPT THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE TODAY. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EJECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE EXISTS ATOP THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND THUS.
THE SNOW IS DUE TO LAYERS OF MOISTURE OVER SW IDAHO AND LIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1143 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
ATTENDANT TO A MID AND UPPER LOW RESIDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BROAD WAVE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE ARIZONA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
1113 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO CANADA TODAY. COOL WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRY US OUT AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN FOR TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 604 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS THROUGH E TX THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE TROUGH AXIS. BULK OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF A PLAINS TO CHILDRESS LINE WITH LIGHTER FLURRIES POSSIBLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE. DO NOT HAVE MENTION IN FOR NOW AS THE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING LINGERED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. JORDAN ONCE THIS NEXT UA TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE.
COMPARISON OF THE MODEL 500HPA FIELDS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP ARE CONSISTENTLY TOO FAR EAST WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS.
336 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP IT CLOUDY.
118 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE TODAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE SUBSIDED AND TODAY SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WILL CERTAINLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY COAST/VALLEY AREAS.
306 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 Low pressure has moved over Michigan this afternoon. However, a surface trof is moving around the low and through the region today.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
1102 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 PASSING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK COVERING MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. DUE PARTLY TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SAME GOES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE AND AREAS OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPING PRINCIPALLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGELINES AND PASSES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY. A RATHER DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. APPEARS ONLY AFFECT FM THIS SURGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DUE TO STG INVERSIONS.
340 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP IT CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN LIFT TO VFR UNTIL A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. -RA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 30/08Z AS THIS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH CIGS GRADUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AFTER 30/14Z.
1134 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 SHORT RANGE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AROUND 5K-10K AGL AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THESE PLACES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO BETTER MIXING AS THE LOCALLY SHALLOW ARCTIC-LIKE AIR WILL ERODE AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.