Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
634 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Main concern out of the gates will be scattered thunderstorms through the morning hours on nose/surge of good 850mb moisture transport and warm air advection as a warm front pushes through. Breezy southwest winds will continue to advect warmer/increasingly humid air in the area Monday night. There is some indication buy the models that forcing from an incoming mid-level trough may be enough to erode the cap and bust out some convection by later in the afternoon, so went with 20-40 percent chances mainly north of I-90. Focus then turns to storms expected to expand in coverage/intensity going into Tuesday eve/night as that mid-level wave drives a surface cold front southward into the area.
1058 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and near normal temperatures before a warm front brings a chance of rain back Tuesday.
752 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and near normal temperatures before a warm front brings a chance of rain back Tuesday.
An area of low pressure queued to form off of the California Coast along with a growing ridge of high pressure from the South Plains will tango this week.
This is where the moisture is trapped to circulate under the ridge aloft. Winds will abate on Tuesday as the ridge expands back to the West by a split in the large upstream trough. The southern energy of the split trough mentioned above will form a closed low off the Baja Coast. With the jet well to the North the low will be pinned in the E. Pac with a blocking downstream high over the northern Mexico and a digging trough downstream of that. Pac and the closed low will finally be kicked out by the late week time period. This low will mainly lift to our West but it is uncertain how much mositure it will be pulling along with it.
More certain is that the increase in moisture/cloudiness will help keep temperatures from warming very aggressively which in turn will limit highs to the lower and middle 80s for most spots. Cut off low will continue to move off to the northeast during the day on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds back across the forecast area. Ridge axis will become squarely planted over the forecast area by the latter half of the week.
Thunderstorms that were fairly vigorous along the ND/SD have weakened significantly as they move off the higher MU CAPE values to our west and into our area. The low level jet is feeding into west central MN, but will also be weakening and moving east as the morning goes on so at this point do not think it will feed the development of stronger convection over our area. This afternoon should be fairly quiet, with surface winds turning northwesterly behind a trough axis. Fairly quiet tonight with lows a few degrees cooler with weak cold air advection. Air mass should be a bit cooler on Tuesday but still pretty warm with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s possible.
907 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
536 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 An approaching warm front will bring an increase in clouds later today. It will remain dry and seasonably cool with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
There is less moisture in the low levels compared to yesterday morning, so some of this may not be reaching the ground, and is likely to dissipate around sunrise when the lift weakens. For the rest of today, the ridge will remain dominant over the southern CONUS while its axis slowly moves east. As a result, temperatures will turn much warmer with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, warmest in north central KS where deeper mixing is expected.
Tuesday will probably be the warmest day with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s.
Otherwise, a surface front/trough from the northwest will push through the cwa into the evening with winds coming around to the north and northwest. The main issue today will be the hot temperatures as with the sunshine we will mix out into the upper 80s to the lower 90s today. The trough/boundary will stall across southern sd as winds turn north to northeast. A short wave trough will then be sliding across the far northern U. Before this occurs on Tuesday, expect some late night convection along the ND border in north central SD with the upper level trough.
652 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 The trend continues today as upper ridging continues to become more influential. We will see temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the low to mid 80s and mostly sunny skies.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies cover the region early this morning as a weak trough moves across the area. Mid/upper level COL develops across NorCal today and continues into mid-week as the trough splits with a cutoff low dropping south to off the coast of SoCal as westerlies retreat north into the PacNW and ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific and the Desert Southwest.
A strong upper level ridge remains in place across the central US keeping Nebraska dry for much of the time. This warmer air combined with plenty of sun and south to southwest winds will keep surface temperatures on the warm side of guidance for both today and Tuesday. today being the warmer of the two days. These storms will be supported by a warm front. The upper level ridge that was in place earlier in the week keeping conditions mostly dry, will break down by mid-week.
The robust upper-level ridge over the region will begin to flatten on Tuesday; however, thickness values remain mid-summer-like, so expect another toasty afternoon with temperatures in the 90s for many locations. The trend in lower-resolution models such as the GFS has been to move the frontal feature further north; however, the NAM shows storms building southward as they are fed by the low-level jet during the early overnight.
it looks like our tropical moisture tap has been shunted east and south of the Cheyenne CWA this morning as upper ridge axis shifts into western Nebraska. satellite imagery continues to show a low pressure system off the coast of southern California with moisture streaming into western Idaho and eastern Oregon. May see temperatures a few degrees cooler Tuesday over today's highs as associated surface front moves south and 700mb temperatures cool into the upper single digits.
High pressure passing just to our west today will maintain fair skies over the region through this aftn.
An upper ridge will be situated over the Central and Northern Plains with an upper trough extending from the Baja Peninsula to the Texas Gulf Coast. The lowest RH values will be in the teens along and east of a line from Russell Springs to Yuma. A lee trough will move through the area in the evening.
433 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2020 A generally weak south/southwesterly flow will aloft continue across the forecast area, with an upper level ridge over the Southern Plains and a closed upper low off the west coast. No record anticipated but still well above normal with the high around 90.
516 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and near normal temperatures before a warm front brings rain chances back to the region on Tuesday. Dry conditions will continue today as high pressure remains the dominant feature. The evening will remain dry before rain chances increase after midnight with an approaching warm front.
Weak high pressure aloft will build into the region later today then shift eastward tonight as a weak cold front approaches on Tuesday.
730 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
An upper level low continues to spin over northern Mexico. The upper low will move slowly across Texas during this period and produce diurnally driven convection. The upper low will be moving away to the northeast tonight and Tuesday and rain chances will decrease as it moves away.
The CWA sits between the exiting warm front and approaching cool front. Warm and mostly dry weather can be expected beneath the upper ridge axis today. Ridge flattens Tuesday, and cooler air advects into the northwestern CWA again, so lowered highs there further.
615 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 (Today and tonight) This afternoon's temperatures will be similar to yesterday's, although mid to high cloud cover will increase from south to north throughout the day thanks to mid to upper level low disrupting the ridge a bit. At least partly cloudy skies will remain present through tonight as the low nears the Red River by early Tue morning. A slight increase in low level moisture and periodic cloud cover will result in slightly warmer morning lows Tue, mainly in the mid 60s.
312 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure settling across the region looks to deliver mostly sunny skies, seasonably warm temperatures, and dry conditions to NE Montana for today. High pressure will return dry conditions to the area for the midweek along with seasonably warm temperatures.
Clouds and a breezy afternoon are in store today as a weak cold front approaches the northern Rockies from the west.
933 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 A surface cold front is currently located from the Devils Lake Basin into the James River Valley. Winds behind the front have been towards the high end of guidance, especially across northern North Dakota which is in closer proximity to the occluded low over central Saskatchewan. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form over the higher terrain in Montana this evening and make their way into an environment, potentially characterized by MUCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear values up to 50 knots across the southwest later tonight.
/DL/ Today and tonight: A broad mid/upper ridge will extend from the central Gulf and into the Upper Plains, with a pleasantly dry low level airmass over our area maintaining the current stretch of dry conditions into today.
858 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 A weak front will settle across the area and stall today as high pressure builds into the area form the north. For today, moderate easterly flow will keep the sea breeze close to the coast, and some drier air with the weak front will keep the highest rain chances mainly south of I-4. A weak front washes out across the southern waters today as high pressure to the north builds down across the area. High pressure will remain in place through the rest of the period, with the high center shifting east to over the Atlantic, then south through the weekend.
1002 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Cool and dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Temperatures will begin to warm and humidity will increase by midweek through the end of the week as high pressure settles far off the Southeast United States coast. Break from heavy rainfall continues today and Tuesday with mostly sunny skies, and cooler than normal temperatures for June 1st. Max-T Tuesday 2-4 deg F warmer than today.
/issued 336 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today as an upper low moves slowly northwest into the Big Bend and Tran Pecos. It will be cooler in the 80s for highs today, with cloudiness and rainfall.
12Z sounding does show a moist column supportive of convection in face of upper level ridging.
253 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Increasing clouds and warmer tonight with lows around 60.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST High pressure will extend across the region this week, before a cold front approaches the area this weekend. Tonight: High pressure centered near Cape Hatteras will drift south, and the resulting pressure gradient will slacken, allowing for winds to go light or calm many areas.
Multiple days of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the low to mid 90s are expected. Given the cooler spring, extra precaution needs to be taken when outdoors this week. Happy Meteorological Summer! And the summer weather is showing up right on time, with a rather large upper level ridge has taken shape over the central part of the country, and southwesterly flow tapping into the Gulf of Mexico. Today will be a stepping stone, with highs in the low to mid 80s and really no heat index. Tomorrow is the beginning of the upper 80 to low 90 degree temperatures with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
For tonight expect another ridge riding s/w to spawn some convection late tonight, with that activity potentially making it to the James valley before decreasing or dissipating. Developing LLJ of moderate intensity will develop over the High Plains tnt and should help usher in more moisture/instability to the region.
331 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Another day of gusty southwest winds under a upper level ridge axis has allowed temperatures to reach the 90s for the first day of June. Dewpoints have also pushed into the low 60s, which will make for another relatively warm night tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. On Tuesday, temperatures are once again forecast to reach the mid 90s as a cold front approaches from the northwest. By late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front in or just northwest of the forecast area.
Shear approaching 50kts could support some weak rotation in stronger thunderstorms, but hail size will be limited by marginal instability and high freezing levels.
241 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 The Ohio Valley remains under upper ridging that currently covers the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered near Cincinnati. This high will continue to get pushed southeast towards the North Carolina coast.
A weak cold front will cross northern and central Utah Tuesday, with continued hot temperatures through the remainder of the week. A shallow cold front will push into northern Utah tonight, leading to cooler temperatures across the north tomorrow. Relatively dry conditions are expected to continue through the next few days, although a few cumulus buildups will be possible over the higher terrain midweek.
Cloud cover will then begin to diminish this evening with the loss of heating, as temps quickly fall into the lower/mid 70s after sunset. Temps should continue to fall overnight into the lower/mid 60s for most spots, as high pressure over the mid Atlantic states continues to drift south. High pressure will continue to settle more into the srn Atlantic coastal areas heading into Tue, as southerly flow develops over much of the region. Weak upper ridge pattern in place over much of the SE region may also limit much in the way of convective development thru Tue, before the ridge axis begins to weaken on Wed.
1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Main concern out of the gates will be scattered thunderstorms through the morning hours on nose/surge of good 850mb moisture transport and warm air advection as a warm front pushes through. Breezy southwest winds will continue to advect warmer/increasingly humid air in the area Monday night. There is some indication buy the models that forcing from an incoming mid-level trough may be enough to erode the cap and bust out some convection by later in the afternoon, so went with 20-40 percent chances mainly north of I-90. Focus then turns to storms expected to expand in coverage/intensity going into Tuesday eve/night as that mid-level wave drives a surface cold front southward into the area.
1220 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight.
1150 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will extend across the region this week, before a cold front approaches the area this weekend. Tonight: High pressure centered near Cape Hatteras will drift south, and the resulting pressure gradient will slacken, allowing for winds to go light or calm many areas.
We remain on track with dry conditions across our area today with the expansive upper ridge centered over the southeastern US. This ridge will begin to retreat to the southeast over the Florida Peninsula as an upper level low moves into the ARKLATEX region. With the high overhead, temperatures are well on their way to 90 degrees inland with upper 80s at the coast. Highs tomorrow will likely be a tick cooler as the upper ridge moves southeast and more clouds move into the area.
215 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure departs eastward Tuesday with an approaching warm front. Dew points will also rise into the low 60s across the lower terrain by Tuesday afternoon. A warm front boundary will be draped a few hundred miles shy of the northern forecast area boundary, keeping shower potential out of our territories through the forecast period.
Tuesday will once again feature hot and humid conditions as the ridge aloft continues to shift eastward and zonal flow aloft prevails.
250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control of sensible weather through Tuesday. Subsidence beneath the ridge and a relatively dry lower troposphere will result in no chances for showers and thunderstorms.
328 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Showers and isolated storms tonight - Slight risk for Severe Weather Tuesday Night - Dry late week - Showers and isolated storms tonight A warm front will focus development of showers and a few thunderstorms tonight as elevated instability increases north of the front. - Slight risk for Severe Weather Tuesday Night The cold front will bring convection late Tuesday through the overnight. Overall severe weather threat is slight given unfavorable timing of the cold front passage in terms of surface based instability.
/10/ The high clouds are continuing to over spread the area this morning as upper level moisture streams northward from the Gulf. High pressure maintains its presence over the region. /10/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: A broad mid/upper ridge will extend from the central Gulf and into the Upper Plains, with a pleasantly dry low level airmass over our area maintaining the current stretch of dry conditions into today.
Sprinkles and light showers remain over the region this afternoon courtesy of an upper low over Southwest Texas and deep moisture being transported in through the low and mid levels from the gulf. The east flow at the surface is around a ridge across the eastern U. Tuesday the ridge will shift into the Atlantic which will turn the flow more southeast. The upper low over SW TX will move closer to the region.
Winds will increase from the west-southwest tomorrow as high pressure moves out of the Appalachians to the east coast, increasing the pressure gradient across the region.
A weak upper low over central TX will wobble slowly northeast and bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms to southern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon.
An upper level high situated over Missouri and Arkansas and an upper level ridge over the Rockies will continue the quiet weather pattern in southwest Kansas through the short term. Tuesday the trough in eastern Colorado is forecast to be pushed farther east from the convection that happens tonight. Highs will warm back into the lower to mid 90s.
Temperatures are trending a bit warmer than the forecast so far today. A surface cold front is currently located from the Devils Lake Basin into the James River Valley. Winds behind the front have been towards the high end of guidance, especially across northern North Dakota which is in closer proximity to the occluded low over central Saskatchewan. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form over the higher terrain in Montana this evening and make their way into an environment, potentially characterized by MUCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear values up to 50 knots across the southwest later tonight.
Temperatures are climbing into the low 80s with most of the area seeing dewpoints in the 50s and 40s.
Overnight lows will slowly warm each night with high temps keeping station, as the surface winds orient more off the Gulf's warmer waters by late in the short term period.
301 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 (Tonight and Tuesday) Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of West Central Texas as a tropical-like upper level low to our west drifts north into the Permian Basin. 20 (Tuesday Night through Monday) An upper level ridge will build east into our area during the middle to late part of the week, and will be centered over Texas this weekend.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Midday satellite imagery reveals our upper low circulation is centered near Midland, with broad ascent occurring on its eastern periphery. This will allow for widely scattered showers and few storms as lift from the nearby upper low remains in place, with peak coverage occurring during the afternoon.
There is a large 500mb ridge covering the CONUS. Inside the center of the ridge in southwestern TX/northeastern Mexico, is a low pressure bubble. By Tuesday the low pressure cell gets picked up by the main flow and swept off east.
Latest MOS guidance has also picked up on a cooler trend in this area as well. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 86 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 85 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 86 65 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 82 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 10 20.
shower and thunderstorm coverage is a bit higher compared to the past few days and focused on a cold frontal passage in the afternoon through mid evening before moving east and south out of the area after midnight.
An upper level ridge axis will shift eastward, bringing hotter temperatures to the area beginning tomorrow.
The high clouds are continuing to over spread the area this morning as upper level moisture streams northward from the Gulf. High pressure maintains its presence over the region. /10/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: A broad mid/upper ridge will extend from the central Gulf and into the Upper Plains, with a pleasantly dry low level airmass over our area maintaining the current stretch of dry conditions into today.
157 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 An upper low over the area today is a weakness in the upper ridge that extends northward across the center of the country. This low will weaken and drift east Tuesday as ridge strengthens from the west.
Current temps have rebounded into the upper 60s/near 70F from their earlier lows mainly in the lower/mid 50s. With ample heating xpcted thru the afternoon hrs, as high pressure over the mid Atlantic states drifts south, highs later today look to climb into the lower/mid 80s for most spots, under partly cloudy skies. The axis of the mid-level ridge discussed above will shift slowly eastward across the TN Valley from tonight-Tuesday, gradually weakening with time. In the lower-levels, south-southeasterly flow will become more established overnight, with the combination of moisture advection and cloud cover yielding low temps in the l-m 60s. Synoptic scale influences from subsidence aloft will be even less for the remainder of the short term period, as the weakening ridge shifts eastward into the southwestern North Atlantic ahead of a trough approaching from the region from the west.
The northwesterly upper- level flow pattern will transition away from the area on Tuesday as a broad upper level ridge builds over the eastern CONUS.
246 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Upper ridging continues across the Great Plains today, with generally quiet weather across the area. High pressure has been building into the area, bringing slightly cooler air than yesterday. A cold front will push through late tonight into Tuesday morning.
118 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Increasing clouds and warmer tonight with lows around 60.
A large thermal ridge building across the central U. With lows only around the upper 60s overnight we should have no trouble climbing into the lower 90s across most or all of the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon, and there have been no significant changes to the heat forecast or messaging on this shift.
253 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 With mid to upper level ridging overhead, conditions at the surface are quiet and on par for the beginning of June. /10/ Upper ridging slowly breaks down going through midweek.
The cloud cover will return Tuesday evening, as a cold front approaches the state.
The last wave of energy associated with this past weekend's low pressure trough is presently passing over the Northern Rockies. Warmer weather is likely to set in on Tuesday as drier, westerly flow aloft settles in across the Northern Rockies and Pacific/Inland Northwest.