Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Today the long lived trough over Mid-America will finally shift northeast of the area and transition into weak ridging by tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, highly anomalous ridging continues over the Pacific Northwest with another ridge present over the Mid- Atlantic.
Upper level ridging is steering the remnants of TD Danny into north Georgia and Alabama late this morning. Temperatures this morning were rising fairly fast from lows in the lower 70s to reach the lower to mid 80s now. Kept highs below 90 southern valley where denser cloud cover was moving in right now but lower 90s are expected from Knoxville northeast to Tri- Cities more under the influence of the ridge.
The high PWAT airmass will remain in place through Wednesday with the better coverage of showers again expected across portions of south central and southeast Kansas.
329 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 A surge of tropical moisture was apparent on satellite and radar images today as the westward limb of a mid level ridge centered over the Atlantic seaboard helped sweep the moisture into the PAH forecast area.
256 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 18Z upper air analysis indicated a ridge axis nosing its way into Texas High Plains this afternoon with a narrow corridor of weakly difluent flow to the east of a vorticity lobe digging into the Four Corners region. Isolated rain showers (and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) will be possible tomorrow afternoon, though the orientation of the forecast vertical thermodynamic profiles indicates warm/tropical rain processes that will be dampened in intensity and coverage as the mid/upper-level anticyclone drifts westward.
An MCV tracking across the northern half of Central Alabama will be the main player in the forecast in the near term, followed by the remnant low pressure center of what's left of Danny over Georgia. Central Alabama will be wedged in between an upper ridge developing over Texas and the previous ridge over the western Atlantic. The mid to upper level disturbance/inverted trough will continue moving westward along the Gulf Coast.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ An upper ridge continues to expand westward from the Mid Atlantic region into the Mid South, and into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Models continue to suggest that greatest coverage will be west of the I-49 corridor, especially across our East Texas zones, as the upper ridge should limit coverage across the eastern 2/3rds of the region. Lows overnight will drop down into the lower 70s, with some low cigs and patchy fog possible close to daybreak. On tomorrow, the ridge will continue to build westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains. However, with less rain across the region, afternoon temps will likely climb into the lower 90s areawide. But, additional rain could develop late Wednesday night in areas north of the Interstate 30 corridor ahead of a weak cold front diving down the Plains.
Highs will range from the low 80s northwest to around 90 southeast.
The moisture axis shifts little tonight into Wednesday as the pattern with the high out west and on the eastern seaboard remains in place though Wednesday morning. Highs on Wednesday will be influenced by clouds and precipitation in east central Kansas where the cooler temperatures are expected in the upper 70s to around 80, whereas the north central counties should see highs in the mid 80s.
308 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach the area late this week. Broad high pressure of the Atlantic continues its influence over the region. Lows in the low 70s inland to around mid 70s near the water. High pressure shifts farther out over the Atlantic as a deep upper level trough digs south from the Great Lakes driving a cold front toward the East Coast.
Several places in the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mtn Foothills have already reached 100-105 degrees.
An upper level ridge is starting to build back into the area which will increase subsidence and hurt chances for storm persistence. They all show a substantial decrease in activity compared to the past two days due to the increase in subsidence from the aforementioned upper level ridge. The NAM Nest shows little to nothing in the way of activity with it's thinking that the subsidence from the ridge will outpace any lift over the area. This high water content in conjunction with, once again, very little shear will allow for slow moving showers and storms that could quickly drop a lot of rain.
A large high pressure in the SE CONUS is preventing this moisture from further advecting out of the area which enables it to pool over much of the central Plains. A disturbance moving through the Great Lakes looks to unsettle the apparent blocking pattern reintroducing zonal flow across the continent.
148 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a strong mid-level anticyclone centered along the WA/BC border. Downstream, a positively tilted trof extends from Hudson Bay across the Plains, resulting in sw flow into the Upper Lakes.
The circulation now in northwest AL becomes sheared out and stalls out in MS and western TN on Wednesday amidst an east west upper ridge axis across the southern U.
1126 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 The trough to the east combined with the ridge to the northwest is producing northeasterly flow across Wyoming. Highs will be at least 5 degrees warmer on Wednesday, with the Bighorn basin climbing into the mid 90s.
Highs tomorrow look to be a bit warmer with mid 80s.
A brief cool down is expected as a backdoor cold front moves through Wednesday night and driers out the atmosphere.
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
Rain chances are expected to diminish toward sunset across the interior, but deep moisture and the low-level onshore winds will keep scattered showers and isolated storms in the forecast this evening and tonight across the coastal counties with heavy downpours and lightning being the main concerns. Low temps in the low-mid 70s.
A very amplified ridge over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies highlights the upper air pattern this afternoon, producing record breaking temperatures across the northwest. Mid-week begins with the highly amplified ridge over the Northern Rockies and a trough over the Hudson Bay.
Highs will continue to be a few degrees warmer into the the mid 90s for much of the area. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. The high pressure will continue to move north of Montana allowing temperatures to rise.
Upper level ridge over the eastern seaboard today remains in control which is keeping convection limited today over northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The ridge will be in place for about one more day before weakening by Wednesday night.
0 inches and a mid level ridge will settle in over Texas, putting a damper on convective activity, but have kept a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Quiet weather across the area for the next several days as weak flow aloft settles into the area from the west and a trough digs into the northeast. Overall this will keep high pressure at the surface nearby into the early part of the weekend which means lighter winds and lower than normal humidity for this time of year. Light northerly or easterly flow will be in place on Wednesday with low level temperatures just a bit warmer than today. This should allow for highs from the mid 80s in southwest MN to the lower 90s along and west of the James River.
Tomorrow, moisture and elevated PWATs are still in place, but a strengthening upper ridge should help suppress some shower activity leaving the better chances during peak heating during the day and more coverage along and near the Coastal Plains. With the strengthening of the upper ridge, temperatures should be able to climb closer, but still just below normal tomorrow.
348 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows Bermuda ridge over the mid-Atlantic states arching southwestward into the region around the remnants of TC Danny over N AL/N MS and an easterly wave over the NE Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures have remained in the lower to mid 80s thanks to the abundant cloud cover from the shower and thunderstorms that moved through the area throughout the day. High pressure is currently anchored in the western Atlantic and is supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters.
Another front will move through Wednesday night with winds shifting to the north and bringing cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s overnight.
248 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a strong mid-level anticyclone centered along the WA/BC border. Downstream, a positively tilted trof extends from Hudson Bay across the Plains, resulting in sw flow into the Upper Lakes. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the nern U. and a trough off the Pacific NW coast and a ridge in the Rockies 00z Thu. The ridge moves to the plains and western U. trough digs southward into the eastern U. In the extended, GFs and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the eastern half of the U. and a ridge in the plains and Rockies 12z Sat. Upper pattern changes little into Mon except the ridge amplifies a bit over the Rockies.
Very similar conditions are in place for tomorrow (for rain) but progs of a mid-level ridge building in from the NE could help to lower rain chances a bit. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low situated over nw Mexico early this morning. 4" values across SE Tx and surface obs show a well defined area of speed convergence along a weak trof at the coast. 1") and weak mid level ridging builds in from the ne.
The latest 1200 UTC HREF paintball plots show a lot of spread in the more focused activity, but the general agreement is for convection to orient itself more west to east as mid/upper level ridging weakens and slides east. However, a seasonably strong cold front is forecast to move into the CWA Wednesday night ahead of an amplifying longwave trough. Strong synoptic forcing for ascent aided by the aforementioned trough and divergence beneath a jet streak over the Great Lakes should lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage.
1117 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Upper air analysis depicts the omega block pattern is still in effect across the Pacific Northwest, as the upper level trough remains across the Midwest. Expecting much less convection today, outside of the higher terrains west of Laramie, as a bulk of the moisture remains further to the south into Colorado and across the Four Corners. Cooler temperatures will remain across the CWA from the influence of the omega blocking pattern as the western seaboard continues to break record highs. The next few days should start to see the return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the upper level trough begins to transition towards the east.
500 hPa RAP analysis continues to show the axis of a positively tilted trough extending from the central high plains into the Great Lakes region. Tomorrow afternoon, a remnant shower or thunderstorm is possible in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa as the upper level trough currently over our region deamplifies and propagates to the northeast.
Daytime highs Wednesday will be warmer than today with readings generally in the 80 to 85 degree range. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday The latest ensemble means indicate that the beefy ridge over northwest North America will translate east and deamplify over the period. Some of the heat within the ridge will shift east but the full brunt will likely not reach into northeast Wisconsin as the ridge weakens before moving into the Great Lakes.
/issued 855 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021/ Deep layered ridging over the Atlantic and extending east over the eastern U.
The lowest visibility will generally be in areas along and west of I-75, with a few locations likely restricted to less than 1 mile. Cooler and Less Humid. An upper level trough settles in over the region through the period.
Upper ridge in the east will retrograde somewhat by Wednesday, but much of northeast OK and northwest AR will remain on the northern periphery with some threat of showers and storms continuing, along with locally heavy rain.
(This evening through Wednesday) Convective coverage should decrease somewhat tomorrow with mid- level ridge retrograding to the west. The 591 dam ridge is forecast to be centered across western north Texas by tomorrow afternoon. While it'll be one of those days where any location could see rain, the highest probabilities for convection will be across the northern half of Oklahoma (given the location of the ridge).
Current thinking is that coverage will be a bit less than today as mid to upper level ridging works into the region bringing slightly drier air and subsidence.
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 18Z upper air analysis indicated a ridge axis nosing its way into Texas High Plains this afternoon with a narrow corridor of weakly difluent flow to the east of a vorticity lobe digging into the Four Corners region. Isolated rain showers (and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) will be possible tomorrow afternoon, though the orientation of the forecast vertical thermodynamic profiles indicates warm/tropical rain processes that will be dampened in intensity and coverage as the mid/upper-level anticyclone drifts westward.
/86/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: An inverted trough and associated remnants of what was Tropical Storm Danny will continue to slide west beneath flat upper ridging. Heading into tonight, partly cloudy skies are expected with overnight temperatures falling into the low 70s. By tomorrow, the aforementioned upper ridge will begin to break down as a pronounced northern stream longwave trough drops in the Great Lakes region. Afternoon high temperatures will be seasonable in the low 90s.
While most convection will die down after sunset, a few stray showers and maybe a quick rumble of thunder is possible over the higher terrain. Also to our west, a broad, weak area of low pressure will provide some lift but QG analysis shows this lift as lackluster at best so we'll have to see how all these different influences play out. For now, forecast puts the best chances for any precip over the higher terrain with less chances for the valleys. Taking a look at the bigger picture, the ridge of high pressure that brought record-breaking heat to the Pacific Northwest will be centered over the Canadian Prairie Provinces Wednesday and is forecasted to continue slowly shifting eastward. An elongated trough of low pressure draped from New England to northeast New Mexico Wednesday will also drift slowly east.
1001 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
618 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Convective coverage should decrease somewhat tomorrow with mid- level ridge retrograding to the west. The 591 dam ridge is forecast to be centered across western north Texas by tomorrow afternoon. While it'll be one of those days where any location could see rain, the highest probabilities for convection will be across the northern half of Oklahoma (given the location of the ridge).
A mid-level ridge that is progged to build in from the NE could help to limit POPs a bit by tomorrow (afternoon). But did opt to err on the side of wet until more evidence of this high is available. And so based on the higher POPs/clouds, did keep max temperatures tomorrow near 90.
Onshore flow will continue to bring cooler but still above normal temperatures to the region through the Fourth of July holiday.
This wet and humid weather pattern will finally break down late in the week, and the upcoming holiday weekend looks cooler, less humid, and dry.
954 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Warm and muggy conditions with scattered storms continue through the evening under the western periphery of subtropical high pressure centered off the United States east coast.
A surge of tropical moisture was apparent on satellite and radar images today as the westward limb of a mid level ridge centered over the Atlantic seaboard helped sweep the moisture into the PAH forecast area.
Temperatures in the island communities are in the lower 80s to the upper 70s, mainly in the Lower Keys. The dew point values are in the lower to mid 70s. The surface analysis depicts an expansive subtropical ridge positioned over the western Atlantic and extending to the eastern United States. The Florida Keys remain in the southwestern periphery of the ridge, supporting moderate east to southeast breezes. The regional satellite imagery shows an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
917 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Despite loss of daytime instability, showers and isolated storms will continue to lift NNW from the south as a surface-850 mb trough axis pivots northward from the central FL peninsula through midnight. Expect for precipitation coverage to progressively decrease as it moves north and westward across the Suwannee River Valley and inland SE GA over the next couple of hours as forcing weakens aloft as mid/upper level PVA rotating around the GOMEX upper level low south of Pensacola retrogrades westward with the vortex. With the ridge to the northeast this afternoon, the flow will be from the east. For Wednesday, with the high located more toward the east, the flow will be from the east southeast.
/29/ Tonight and tomorrow: An inverted trough and associated remnants of what was Tropical Storm Danny will continue to slide west beneath flat upper ridging. Heading into tonight, partly cloudy skies are expected with overnight temperatures falling into the low 70s. By tomorrow, the aforementioned upper ridge will begin to break down as a pronounced northern stream longwave trough drops in the Great Lakes region. Afternoon high temperatures will be seasonable in the low 90s.
Upper level ridging tries to become established tomorrow as well and the subsidence associated with the ridge should aid in lowering rain chances. A mid-level ridge that is progged to build in from the NE could help to limit POPs a bit by tomorrow (afternoon). But did opt to err on the side of wet until more evidence of this high is available. And so based on the higher POPs/clouds, did keep max temperatures tomorrow near 90.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop again during the heat of the day Wednesday, but coverage is expected to be a bit less as weak ridging aloft builds into North TX.
Most of the area looks to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow compared to today.
This low will continue to fill overnight, and while most showers/storms have died off, additional development may occur later tonight along the Plateau, but little more expected.
Routine summer time weather across NW CA as high pressure aloft maintains clear skies and warm temperatures across the interior. Expecting another night of the low clouds and areas of fog returning along most of the Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino coasts tonight. Trinity Valley highs tomorrow will still be in the low 100s thus will maintain a Heat Advisory for those areas. The main ridge responsible for all the record heat up and down the West Coast will shift to the east and north as the low offshore moves north-northeast. Though, another ridge will quickly build back in to keep those hot interior temperatures around through the end of the work week.
- Moldan 520 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 (30/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions are expected throughout the duration of the TAF period; however, high density altitude impacts will likely grow over the course of the week due to an anomalously strong upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
748 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
/issued 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/ 18Z upper air analysis indicated a ridge axis nosing its way into Texas High Plains this afternoon with a narrow corridor of weakly difluent flow to the east of a vorticity lobe digging into the Four Corners region. Isolated rain showers (and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) will be possible tomorrow afternoon, though the orientation of the forecast vertical thermodynamic profiles indicates warm/tropical rain processes that will be dampened in intensity and coverage as the mid/upper-level anticyclone drifts westward.
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Quiet weather across the area for the next several days as weak flow aloft settles into the area from the west and a trough digs into the northeast. Overall this will keep high pressure at the surface nearby into the early part of the weekend which means lighter winds and lower than normal humidity for this time of year. Light northerly or easterly flow will be in place on Wednesday with low level temperatures just a bit warmer than today. This should allow for highs from the mid 80s in southwest MN to the lower 90s along and west of the James River.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 90 71 88 71 / 20 30 20 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 90 71 87 69 / 20 30 30 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 70 86 69 / 20 30 30 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 88 69 85 67 / 10 20 30 80 90.
726 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach the area late this week. Broad high pressure of the Atlantic continues its influence over the region. Lows in the low 70s inland to around mid 70s near the water. High pressure shifts farther out over the Atlantic as a deep upper level trough digs south from the Great Lakes driving a cold front toward the East Coast.
A surface cold frontal boundary will began to shift southward into northern IL on Wednesday.
7 inch range) spreads northwestward in the wake of an inverted mid-level trough. However, there is some indication that convection will redevelop in the 7-8Z timeframe as the westward-drifting mid-level trough interacts with a zone of subtle low-level convergence currently across northwest AL/northeast MS. The circulation now in northwest AL becomes sheared out and stalls out in MS and western TN on Wednesday amidst an east west upper ridge axis across the southern U.
Showers and thunderstorms will be limited tomorrow due to a ridge building into the region. /issued 348 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/ Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows Bermuda ridge over the mid-Atlantic states arching southwestward into the region around the remnants of TC Danny over N AL/N MS and an easterly wave over the NE Gulf of Mexico.
437 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Tonight and tomorrow: An inverted trough and associated remnants of what was Tropical Storm Danny will continue to slide west beneath flat upper ridging. Heading into tonight, partly cloudy skies are expected with overnight temperatures falling into the low 70s. By tomorrow, the aforementioned upper ridge will begin to break down as a pronounced northern stream longwave trough drops in the Great Lakes region. Afternoon high temperatures will be seasonable in the low 90s.
A weak area of low pressure will continue to pull moisture northward across southern and central Utah tonight.
955 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 High pressure will continue over the area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach the area late this week. Low temps warm and muggy in the low to mid 70s. Broad high pressure of the Atlantic continues its influence over the region. Lows in the low 70s inland to around mid 70s near the water. High pressure shifts farther out over the Atlantic as a deep upper level trough digs south from the Great Lakes driving a cold front toward the East Coast.
Several CAMs depict additional scattered showers forming over north MS into southwest TN overnight, in association with an inverted midlevel trof.
At the same time a large scale upper ridge continues along the eastern CONUS and that will draw Gulf moisture from the southwest over most of the Texas area. While temperatures will still be fairly cool, in the lower 70s to low 80s, there may not be much needed to get showers/storms due to the high dewpoints (60s).