Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1225 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather and below normal temperatures through Thursday. High pressure will provide dry weather today and tonight. A strong cold front will quickly drive through the area Thursday evening, reaching my southern counties shortly after midnight. Additionally, any large scale ascension stays well north of the region in close proximity to the large Hudson Bay upper low.
Latest surface map analysis indicates the cold front is now located from southeast Manitoba, slicing through the Turtle Mountains, and bowing across central North Dakota and back into central Montana. This is the leading edge of the cold front which will continue to progress south overnight. The high temperature forecast for Wednesday ranges from the upper teens north, to the upper 20s south. Normal seasonal high temperatures are in the low/mid 40s.
336 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2017 High pressure dominating the Midwest early this morning, with mostly clear skies and temperatures dropping into the low thirties. Tonight expected to be around freezing for much of the state. Winds become lighter under the ridge axis with a small amount of variability.
425 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather and below normal temperatures through Thursday. High pressure will provide dry weather today and tonight. A strong cold front will quickly drive through the area Thursday evening, reaching my southern counties shortly after midnight. Additionally, any large scale ascension stays well north of the region in close proximity to the large Hudson Bay upper low.
High pressure centered over South Dakota with a ridge axis that extends east across the Great Lakes will provide dry cool weather along with mainly clear skies through Wednesday night. Highs will be slightly below average in the low to mid 40s. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the cold front will keep lows Wednesday night a bit warmer mainly in the low 30s.
247 AM MST Wed Nov 8 2017 Current upper air analysis shows a short wave trough over the Central Plains. West of the short wave trough a ridge was slowly building in. Radar imagery shows the light snow is gradually ending/moving southeast ahead of the short wave trough. Warm air advection will allow highs to be warmer than yesterday. Winds will be light due to a high pressure at 850 mb overhead, although the pressure gradient will be tight enough to cause winds to gust 15-20 MPH. After midnight a cold front will move in, turning the winds to the north.
101 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 High pressure will remain in control across the Great Lakes region through Wednesday night. A strong cold front will move southeast across the region late Thursday into Thursday night.
A cold front will push through the area Wednesday morning with widespread MVFR and at times IFR ceilings prevailing throughout most of the remainder of the TAF forecast period.
with high temperatures generally in the lower to middle 80s away from the immediate coast. Developing sea-breeze flow off the now cooler shelf waters will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler at the beaches.
Strong Storms Possible Across Southern KY this Early this morning a line of showers was slowly pushing ENE out of TN into southern KY ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The latest model guidance suggests a round of mainly elevated showers/storms should develop just north of a warm front located across northern TN and move northeast through central KY/southern IN this afternoon and evening. If the warm front lifts a little farther north than anticipated, then better sfc based instability could make it into southern KY and create an isld tornado threat. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler on the back side of this weather system with highs mainly in the 40s.
227 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Trough will eject across the Rockies and close off as it moves along the Kansas/Oklahoma border tonight. No significant accumulations are expected during that time as the upper low moves away and winds will gradually diminish.
407 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 The mid to upper low continues its track along the KS/OK border early this morning. Then, by late this morning thru this afternoon, winds will increase from the northwest behind the cold front. A rapid warmup is still anticipated mid to late this week under an upper ridge axis. The next chance of storms will arrive Sun-Mon with a southern stream mid to upper trough likely impacting the Southern Plains.
On Tuesday, deepening trough from the Lower Mississippi River Valley at 12Z swings over the FL Peninsula by 00Z with significant upper support and mid level jet ejecting ahead of trough axis. Surface storm system center to move through the deep south with trailing cold front and pre frontal band of convection moving from the Gulf through the area.
The latest short term high resolution models are latching on nicely to a wet snow event for at least the first half of the day behind the departing upper low. There will be a large wrap-around region of light to moderate accumulating precipitation in the mid level deformation zone, even quite a distance west of the actual upper low center as it pushes east into southwest MO this afternoon.
116 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Aviation A cold front will move through Lower Michigan tonight. Cooler northeast winds behind the front will result in Monday temperatures at least 10 degrees below today's highs.
and Tuesday After a mild weekend, a cold front passage last night will bring cooler temperatures on northeast winds for the start of the new work week. The forecast area will be caught between high pressure to the northeast of the Great Lakes and the slow moving trough system over the northern plains. Early this morning, satellite imagery shows mid level clouds over the forecast area, while lower level clouds were more widespread over the northern plains with the weak trough system. Progs suggest the weakening upper trough system shifts eastward Tuesday. The potential of more clouds will lead to cooler max temperatures Tuesday compared to today.
Dewpoints have already dropped into the lower 20s to mid teens across eastern NM. We have decided to delay the high wind warning across our western 2 columns of counties until 22z due to the delayed onset of windy conditions thanks to this morning's rainfall. Currently the highest wind speeds are expected to be across the western TX Panhandle in correlation with the location of the H500 vort max. Just when you thought the wind may be over it will continue behind the cold front tomorrow. The weather should remain relatively quiet into late week as northwesterly flow aloft followed by upper ridging will bring mostly a warming trend.
416 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Conditions are favorable for some light freezing drizzle over northwestern parts of the area, including the northern Black Hills, so have updated the forecast to include that through this morning. Precipitation has transitioned to snow across most of the CWA, although there was some spotty freezing drizzle. Tuesday will see some warming at 850-mb, which should translate to slightly warmer weather than today (although still tempered by snow cover).
The low cigs will clear and the winds will shift from the west overnight, and then become northwest through the early morning hours as a cold front moves in the area. For now, it appears cigs behind the cold front tomorrow will remain just above MVFR around 035.
A series of anticyclones passing through the Hudson Bay region will dominate the weather across the forecast area, driving cool dry Canadian air into the region. Precipitation chances will be minimal until at least the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend, when a southern stream cyclone heads east from the Plains. For the remainder of the afternoon and this evening, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop southwestward across the area bringing an end to the mild weather.
Overall, much less wind is in store for today, through, windy conditions will persist across northeast New Mexico behind a back door cold front.
542 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 The short term concern remains the timing of incoming trough and attendant snow and amounts. Clouds have been persistent but there have been sporadic holes in the lower clouds, especially to the east. This will influence overall movement of the western trough into the area and should limit any significant precipitation over the eastern cwa. Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 40s to the east today, with mainly the mid/upper 30s to the west. This precipitation area will move into western cwa during the evening with categorical PoPs indicated as the upper trough/surface inverted trough move in. Forcing remains rather weak with the trough and will slowly work into eastern MN by 12z Tue.
Still, lapse rates aloft and the shallowness of the cooler air may produce a few stronger thunderstorms. while isolated severe potential cannot be ruled out from the MO bootheel east through in southern KY today, esp from near midday into the afternoon hours, the higher severe potential should stay a bit farther south into TN/MS/AL/GA.
North of I-70, where the rain will have a harder time reaching and where there is some potential for some breaks in the clouds, temperatures may climb to the lower 50s.
There is a low chance showers could re-develop early in the morning across the eastern 1/3rd of the CWA along the cold front.
The ride will however reach the highest peak temp-wise so far this spring by late week, with many areas finally cracking through for some 80 plus degree weather. The Gulf of Mexico looks to open back up for business beginning late week and moisture return will begin to increase across the southern Plains as a wrn upr trough begins to set up.
An upper level low over extreme northern NM, is expected to continue tracking eastward into north central OK by late tonight. Snow has continued over the mountains along the Continental Divide today, but scattered showers have also spread eastward acrs the high valleys and into the eastern mtns, along with some isold tstms. As the upper low works its way east, the winds will become northwest to north and strong, especially over the eastern plains.
452 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow through nrn Ontario into the nrn Great Lakes between a trough from Quebec into nrn New England and a ridge from IA into the ern Dakotas. Today, ne flow CAA will drop 850 mb temps to around -12C and keep temps below normal with highs from the mid and upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. A weak upper level trough will bring an increase in mid-level clouds Tue into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow circulating around a Hudson Bay high should ensure dry conditions.
The gusty winds will diminish Tuesday evening as high pressure begins to settle over the region setting up a beautiful mid week forecast with seasonal temperatures and plenty of sun. A cold front will move through the area during the day ushering in drier air which will allow this fog to dissipate.
Moisture advection does moisten up the lower levels overnight which may cause a little freezing drizzle and/or light snow into Monday morning mainly around I-falls while a little more potential for ice in cloud to the east, so have -sn there.
258 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Upper level low over northwest Oklahoma will continue to move east away from the Panhandles today. A cold front is moving southward in its wake across the region.
Latest radar mosaic shows showers/thunderstorms immediately along/ahead of the wave across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma, with a band of light rain likely associated with an upper-level warm front stretching from Kansas City southeastward to Paducah. High temperatures will mainly be in the middle 50s, except across the S/SE where clouds and showers will keep readings in the lower 50s. Elsewhere around central Illinois, mostly cloudy and cool weather is expected with highs only in the lower 40s.
Byrd Lingering rain showers across the southeastern CWA should taper off tomorrow morning as the aforementioned low pressure system moves away from the area. There may be a sharp E-W temperature gradient across the area on Thu night into Fri if models are correct with the placement of a warm front.
Another aspect to flight operations for flight pattern will be the likelihood of an easterly surface wind developing for several hours today as a down valley flow forms in response to the strengthening Mid America low pressure system.
631 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 A warm front will be south of the forecast area today. The front will lift northward and into the area tonight ahead of approaching low pressure.
Hodographs indicate the strongest 0-1 km shear over the eastern portion of the CWA from 18-22Z ahead of a Pacific cold front that will sweep across the Mid-South during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east this afternoon as cooler and drier air advects into the region behind the cold front. Temperatures will be notably cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. A few showers may linger over the TN Valley tomorrow evening but will come to an end soon thereafter as the trough pulls off to the east.
349 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 A vigorous upper level low pressure system currently over northern Oklahoma, along with a weak system over southern Alberta, will bring light precipitation to the region. Surface temps around freezing could limit the snowfall amounts. However a weak upper level trough will cross the region on Tuesday with additional light pcpn possible. The models show a weak short wave trough leaving the region to the east on Tuesday night with some residual chances of rain/snow for this time.
The wave will skirt east by this afternoon which should result in skies clearing, especially considering the dry air and increased subsidence from the high pressure system building into Ontario and the northern Lakes today.
Monday should see temperatures near to just above freezing. We'll still be under an active pattern at 500mb, with a weak trough over central SD and NE. Only expecting a brief break in the clouds, and potentially precipitation, as a deeper trough swings in from the northwest during the day Tuesday.
650 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure will ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks east across Tennessee through tonight. This low will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast Tuesday.
Again dealing with a deep, relatively dry northeast flow above this low level moisture. The moist low level air mass should help keep surface temperatures above freezing as the precipitation initially advances toward I-29 late in the afternoon, limiting any potential for any minimal snow accumulation prior to 00Z to just higher elevations in our far western counties. Surface/boundary layer temperatures will cool below freezing this evening as the wave slowly advances east, allowing rain to change over to light snow through the night. Amounts generally 1-3 inches, with the highest amounts in our higher elevations in southwest Minnesota/east central South Dakota, where cooling will reach the surface more quickly.
The more widespread/heavier precip should tend to focus along/just north of the mid-level convergence zone just northeast of the low center, transitioning from parts of central Kansas just north of the Wichita metro early this morning into east central Kansas and eventually western Missouri by late morning. An upper trof will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday with rather cool northerly flow upstream across eastern Kansas.
403 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 The latest surface map features low pressure moving across the southern Plains. A weaker inverted trough is currently aligned from the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians, with a more defined warm front aligned from west to east across the Gulf Coast States. Aloft, an upper level low is moving east across the southern Plains. Drier air in the low levels have kept this activity out of eastern Kentucky. Light precipitation will then fill back in again across the area during the afternoon, as a deeper trough takes shape across the eastern CONUS.
428 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Showers rapidly ending across the plains as the upper low across north central OK continues to pull eastward.
133 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 A weak cold front will drop across the region overnight. High pressure will build back into the region today, with this system influencing our weather through the end of the week. Behind a backdoor cold front clouds are increasing south of Lake Ontario near the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes. It will become just cold enough aloft to create lake induced instability, though a dry boundary layer and dry conditions through the lower atmosphere will limit any snow to just a few flurries south of Lake Ontario later tonight. High pressure across western Ontario province will ridge toward our region today. High pressure will remain blocked southwest of James Bay and low pressure will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley and eventually to the east coast Tuesday night.
A strong cold front will continue to push, from north to south, across West Central Texas today. This front will bring cooler air, along with gusty winds from the northwest and north. Highs today will be cooler than yesterday, mainly in the 70 to 65 range.
124 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure through Monday.
245 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Northwest flow aloft prevails between upper ridge over northern plains and upper low over Quebec. Weak cold front from the north is making its way across Upper Michigan this afternoon. Temps have steadied out in the low 30s near Lk Superior but pushed into the upper 40s again over scntrl this aftn where skies stayed mostly sunny all day. Mid clouds dissippate to from north to south on Monday but could be lingering low clouds due to cooler air aloft and flow continuing off Lk Superior out of high pressure over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay. A weak upper level trough will bring an increase in mid-level clouds Tue into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow circulating around a Hudson Bay high should ensure dry conditions.
SNELSON Much colder temperatures will be advecting into the area on breezy northwest winds by Tuesday night behind a cold front.
The 12Z models are in good agreement in pushing the upper low eastward across our region, but there is some discrepancy in the character and path of the surface system.
So will keep a slight chance of snow showers going there, but otherwise things look mostly dry for late Tuesday/Tuesday night as high pressure gradually builds over the region.
315 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Stacked upper low currently resides along the southern Kansas and Oklahoma border this early morning. Meanwhile a swath of elevated showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low forcing is lifting north and east from south central Kansas. These showers are progged to enter southern portions of the area in 1-2 hours with a weakening trend anticipated as updrafts encounter a cooler and more stable airmass. Rain showers may mix with snow for areas north of Interstate 70 as sfc temps fall into the low 30s. With morning temperatures starting in the low/mid 30s, a brief rain/snow mix may be possible before transitioning to rain. By mid-week, a broad mid-level ridge will become centered over the Rockies and gradually shift further toward the central CONUS.
Light snow/freezing drizzle continues to develop across southwest North Dakota this afternoon. Freezing drizzle will give way to all snow by later this evening. The consensus among forecast models is to focus the highest snow amounts across western and north central North Dakota.
As a cold front pushes across West Central Texas this morning, very gusty winds, from the northwest, will dominate. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs around 70 in the north to mid 70s farther south.
A vigorous upper low will track east across southern Missouri today bringing widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Steep 500 MB height falls and cooling aloft will aid in the destabilization of the lower atmosphere. The more significant rainfall will end from the west as the day progresses but patchy light rain and drizzle will persist into tonight as we remain in a deep cyclonic flow in the wake of the passing upper low. Cooler temperatures will settle into the region for Tuesday while cloud cover persist in the wake of the exiting storm system. An upper ridge will build into the region by late week as low level warm air advection increases.
Cooler than average temperatures will dominate the pattern through the end of the week, with the next opportunity for precipitation coming this weekend. Skies are still mainly clear with just some thin high clouds over central areas and a few low clouds associated with a weak cold front over the north. The low level flow will start off light from the NW before gradually turn around to the SE ahead of a low pressure system progged to track to our south tonight into Tue. As it stands, we are probably dealing with snow accumulating mainly on the ridges and lower elevation grassy surfaces.
Additional light snow is expected tonight into Tuesday morning as a weak front and the remnants of the upper trof push through the state.
421 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Cold high pressure will continue to build south from Canada through Tuesday.
627 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure building into the northern Great Lakes and low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley will set the stage for aviation weather in SE Michigan to start the week. The wave will skirt east by this afternoon which should result in skies clearing, especially considering the dry air and increased subsidence from the high pressure system building into Ontario and the northern Lakes today.
Pacific cold front pushes through close to 12z near the coast. Cold front still on track for the 3 am to 8 am window to sweep through and usher in the dry air.
Behind the dryline across west central Texas, a Pacific cold front is roughly along a Brady to Ozona line. Both of the above features will continue to move eastward early this morning while weak troughing in the mid-levels remains across the northern half of Texas. There is still a slim opportunity for some showers and storms to develop this morning as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. However, winds will not go calm tonight as a northern stream cold front moves through south central Texas.
Precipitation has transitioned to snow across most of the CWA, although there was some spotty freezing drizzle. Tuesday will see some warming at 850-mb, which should translate to slightly warmer weather than today (although still tempered by snow cover).
Except for the lower elevations east of a KCAG to KRIL to KASE line this morning, expect dry conditions today with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Given model differences, held onto slight chances of snow for the higher terrain of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado through Tuesday afternoon. A weak ridge will allow for steady warming through the middle portion of the week over the western slope.
437 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure will continue to bring dry and pleasant weather to the region today. After early morning lows from around 25 to 30, highs later today will range from the mid 40s northeast to the low 50s southwest.
Very isolated showers may accompany a pre-frontal trough during the morning hours with winds shifting westerly and speeds increasing to around 15-20 kts with higher gusts nearing 25-30 kts. Winds will shift further to the NW with the cold frontal passage late in the TAF period with speeds only dropping off slightly through the end of the period.
404 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure will ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks east across Tennessee through tonight. This low will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast Tuesday.
This should stifle the valley temperature drop, as a few sites have reached into the low to mid 30s thus far.