Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE 60S AND 70S THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AROUND DAYBREAK MON. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW IS NOT SHOWING A TENDENCY TO DEEPEN ATTM AND THE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FEATURE FOR CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PCPN LOCALLY. GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES FROM ORLANDO NORTH. ROBUST MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL THEN DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE ERODES AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING INTO DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S. AS NORTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM UPSTREAM INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. COLD RAIN TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
1154 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1102 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/ THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTH ALABAMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE INVOLVING MOVING THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. A DECENT AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 04Z TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE 12Z TIME FRAME.
DURING THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA.
THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTH ALABAMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE INVOLVING MOVING THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. A DECENT AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 04Z TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE 12Z TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL MEAN -RA MAY TRANSITION TO -RAPLSN AT TIMES BTWN 23/03Z-23/12Z.
1249 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO MIX INTO A WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA BUT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN THE WIND AND PRECLUDE A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS MONDAY EVENING FALLS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 135W WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND LEAN INTO B. THE BRISK FLOW ALOFT WILL EASE UP ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA MOVES SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/FZRA. HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S. AS NORTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM UPSTREAM INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. COLD RAIN TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next couple of days.
A TWO PROLONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
243 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIRECT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING NEAR SUNRISE AND THAT/S WHEN WE HAVE THE -FZDZ IN THE TAFS. LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS WHERE WICHITA FALLS IN NOW DOWN TO 34 DEGREES AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NORTH OF THERE.
An upper level storm system was currently moving southward down the High Plains Region and Rockies. Temperatures are falling this morning behind a cold front that just passed through.
1011 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CLOUDS.
WITH THE HIGH GOING OVERHEAD/LIGHT WINDS/ LATER TODAY AND WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. TEMPS WARM OVERNIGHT SO BY MORNING SHOULD BE WARMER THAN 25 BELOW WIND CHILLS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO THE LOWER TEENS.
405 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
1253 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT PERSISTENT PATCHY MAINLY RIDGETOP FOG. BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR MID RIDGE AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS THIS MORNING AS FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING ROAD TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING NEAR FREEZING AIR TEMPS AND SLUSHY ROADS. OTHERWISE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL BE MOSTLY OFF TO THE SE TO START THE DAY. THIS FOG SHOULD SUBSIDE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LOW STRATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 05Z TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
101 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT PERSISTENT PATCHY MAINLY RIDGETOP FOG. BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR MID RIDGE AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS THIS MORNING AS FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING ROAD TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING NEAR FREEZING AIR TEMPS AND SLUSHY ROADS. OTHERWISE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL BE MOSTLY OFF TO THE SE TO START THE DAY. THIS FOG SHOULD SUBSIDE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT STALLED JUST ON OUR DOORSTEP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY ALSO. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SCA BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND 06Z MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND UPPER WEISER BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
907 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015 ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN FROM ROUGHLY AMERICAN FALLS TO IDAHO FALLS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE HIGH CIRRUS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN.
A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon under a mostly sunny sky.
314 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 On Monday morning, eastern Kansas remained firmly positioned under a pattern of fast upper level northwest flow while the low levels remained dry with a west to southwest breeze. A stream of short wave troughs continue to pass through the fast flow aloft, with one such weak trough crossing the central Plains states today. Any local lift with this trough is weak and the airmass quite dry so no precip and little to no cloud cover is expected. Cold advection will be minimal as well and temperatures will warm nicely into the lower to middle 60s. Winds will taper through the evening with weak high pressure building overhead. Temperatures will cool into the lower 30s with valleys a bit cooler given the light winds and clear skies.
TEMP SURGE IS ON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER ERN ND AND THE RRV AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE. TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM ENVIRONMENT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT SAT. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.
337 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON AND ALBERT LEA. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED YET. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ECMWF APPEARS CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THIS REGARD AND IS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM AND GFS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CENTER OVER UTAH MONDAY.
955 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
436 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA.
300 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALOFT.
117 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
357 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED VALUES.
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WINDS COLLAPSED AS EXPECTED WHICH ALLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT BIG PINE KEY TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 52 DEGREES AT BIG PINE KEY TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (1004 MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE KENTUCKY. WITH AN ATTENDENT COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT A WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SOME WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
409 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
WE WILL SHOW A MIX JUST FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLAND RIM. ALONG WITH THE LIGHT MIX FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU FROM JAMESTOWN TO MONTEREY COULD STILL PICK UP ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MID MORNING.
A WELL ORGANIZED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL GENERATE A BAND OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THE IMPACT OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL WITH THE SNOW FALLING FIRST AND ROAD TREATMENTS OCCURRING.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE RIDGE AND FROM LUSK TO SCOTTSBLUFF WITHIN WAA REGIME AND A BAND OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE.
Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be able to accumulate a light dusting of snow. Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas, but rising into the low 50s for central MO.
333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW.
DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.
1245 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 WAA ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED WITH WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MT/ND BORDER. AND FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE-TUE NGT PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. NEXT SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON THU SHOULD CAUSE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES IN OUR AREA INCLUDING RAIN/SNOW AND PSBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
1247 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOMORROW MORNING, WILL PRODUCE SOME 30 KT GUSTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/ TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
451 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AROUND THE ELONGATED CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER WRN TN/MID-SOUTH REGION. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CU FIELD TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED LOW.
THE POTENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL SOON HELP CREATE THE NORTHEAST U.
236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS.
1239 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL AWAY.
Breezy northwest winds will kick in behind the front with a cooler airmass spilling in. Highs should run about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday, with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s in the northwest to the upper 50s in the southeastern Big Bend.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL AWAY TODAY. EXPECT TO PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT WILL STALL IN THE GULF. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN SITES.
303 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS THE SE CWA THAT DID NOT MIX OUT YESTERDAY.
/TODAY/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SETUP OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WERE BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH PER THE 00Z MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD BASED ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE.
538 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BUT ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
551 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST COVERAGE AND TIMING OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST RAP/HRRR TRENDS DEPICT THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO CAUSE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. INTERMITTENT FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC BASIN. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE SE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM TUE NIGHT. WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SFC WAVE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC BASIN. WHAT MAY BEAR WATCHING WILL BE THE NEXT INFLUX OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. AS A CLIPPER LIKE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY REGIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL INDUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.
936 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 THE ONLY CHANGE MADE THIS MORNING WAS TO KEEP PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER SE ND/WC MN. WE HAVE GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT MIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK. WINDS CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE LOWER END WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND. GET A BREAK FROM THE LIGHT SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A RIDGE AXIS BRIEFLY POKING UP INTO THE AREA.
636 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 VFR CIGS SCT-BKN040-050 BKN-OVC250 WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SHOVING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Given the depth of dry air below the lift and moisture, expect little more than sprinkles with only a very small potential for a rain shower if weak elevated instability can develop today under the approaching trough. Based on the assumption of afternoon sunshine, high temperatures should climb into the lower 50s despite a northwest breeze and some cold advection. Elongated upper trough digs southeast towards the southern plains on Wednesday. While weak mid level frontogenesis develops as the trough axis passes overhead, dry air through 10 kft will bring only passing mid level clouds through the day.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS WELL WITH AN INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FROM CANADA AND LESS WARMING DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. THE LOW POPS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. 500MB RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT BUT THE AIRMASS WAS NOT FORECAST TO COOL DOWN MUCH. THEN DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE.
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PRECIPITATION LEADING EDGE WOULD BRING THIS TO THE LOWER KEYS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MAINTAINS THE INTEGRITY OF THE RAIN SHIELD AS IT MOVES OVER THE LOWER KEYS. WITH FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OVER THE LOWER KEYS. RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE LOWER KEYS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OVER THE KEYS TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
714 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY UP NEAR THE RED RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AN UPPER TROF OVER THE DESERT SW WILL START AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN FOR US ON WED SO THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH.
Besides the lingering showers this morning, there could be some patchy freezing fog in the valleys of northwest Montana. Clearing skies will lead to cooler than normal temperatures for tonight and the potential for freezing fog development.
614 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015 SOME FOG DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING FOG UNTIL 15Z. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A SECOND TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
EXCEPT FOR THE LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. ZONAL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.