Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 311 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/ Around 500 mb winds have been northerly on the back side of the recent trough that came through. This has allowed for sunny skies, although expect highs are only suppose to be around the low 40s. Winds will pick back up out of the north with a another cold front Thursday afternoon. Although the cold front will have moved in, dewpoints will come up a bit to the teens and low 20s and daytime highs will be able to reach the low 50s.
Freezing temperatures as far south as the I-10 corridor will be possible. Tomorrow will see temperatures a bit warmer as winds are not expected to be as brisk as today with high pressure setting into the gulf states.
333 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 The upper trough that brought the snow to the area this morning is quickly moving off to the east while a second trough is currently dropping into Missouri helping to enhance the diurnal cumulus and produce some scattered sprinkles/flurries this afternoon. This activity will dissipate by early this evening as this second trough moves off to the east at the same time there will be loss of daytime heating.
Then the upper ridge over the Pacific NW helps to push that moisture stream east and sunshine returns.
High pressure building into the area with temperatures that have been steady or falling this afternoon.
549 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 A cold front moving into the area will cross the region by this evening. Behind the cold front, drier and cooler air will settle across the area through the weekend. Cold front moving through the central Midlands at 22z. As the front and trough axis cross the region this evening winds will shift to the west and become gusty as cold air advection takes place and continues through the night.
Total accumuluations look to be on the order of 2-4 inches in the highest elevations of the Park Range.
Forecast Confidence is Moisture in the low levels has continued to bring flurries to even light snow showers today. However, due to the continuing moist low levels it is possible flurries continue through this evening and even through some of the overnight hours before the low level start to dry out early Thursday morning.
408 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 High pressure continues across the Upper Midwest region today, with north/northwesterly winds bringing a chance for Lake Effect snow to the Wisconsin South Shore. Overnight low temperatures across the region will range from the lower single digits, to a few degrees below 0.
533 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 H5 analysis this morning had an area of closed low pressure over northwestern Ontario with a trough extending south into the upper Mississippi valley. West of this feature, weak ridging was noted from central California into Oregon. East of the ridge and west of the trough, north northwesterly flow extended from eastern Montana into the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended from southwestern Saskatchewan south into eastern Wyoming. Highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s with coolest readings in the northeast. Lows will be somewhat mild with readings in the lower to middle 20s.
630 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 The upper trough that brought the snow to the area this morning is quickly moving off to the east while a second trough is currently dropping into Missouri helping to enhance the diurnal cumulus and produce some scattered sprinkles/flurries this afternoon. This activity will dissipate by early this evening as this second trough moves off to the east at the same time there will be loss of daytime heating.
CAG-BRX/CAG-CPR 850mb gradients of 60-70 mtrs will begin to decrease this evening, with the High Wind Warning for WY zones 106 and 110 expiring at 8 PM.
/issued 331 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/ An upper level trough will continue moving through the Mid-South this evening. The Mid-South will actually see the sun on Thursday as clouds clear behind the departing trough.
331 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 An upper level trough will continue moving through the Mid-South this evening. The Mid-South will actually see the sun on Thursday as clouds clear behind the departing trough.
As we decouple from the low level some areas may even go calm after midnight with a frosty night ahead. /issued 546 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/ For the ArkLaTex terminals FEW to BKN Cu will become SKC shortly with SFC winds dropping gusts as the winds decouple from the lower levels under the clear skies.
18Z surface data has the main storm system over the eastern Great Lakes with high pressure over the Plains. Dew points were in the teens from the upper Great Lakes into the northern Plains with 20s from the lower Great Lakes into the central Plains. Midnight through sunset Thursday The current forecast has dry conditions for the entire area as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
This activity is occurring in the vicinity of a boundary layer warm front. Therefore, there is a slight chance of light snow most of the day Thursday across central North Dakota, where the trough will be centered over. Light snow remains possible across central North Dakota Thursday night before the trough washes out to the southeast.
As a result, overnight lows should be 5-10 degrees warmer than last night. Depending on exact timing, precipitation could briefly begin as snow tomorrow morning, but should quickly change to rain as near-surface temperatures rise above freezing. Bufkit profiles show a good unidirectional wind profile in the low levels.
/issued 252 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/ (Tonight and Thursday) Northwest flow aloft will persist across the region through Thursday, as a large upper trough remains over the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure settle over the area tonight, then move off to the southeast tomorrow. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 20s elsewhere, with a few readings in the lower 20s possible. Sunny and warmer weather is on tap for Thursday, along with breezy southwest winds developing from late morning into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal, with afternoon highs in the lower 60s.
401 PM MST Wed Feb 26 2020 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the remainder of the week.
With clear skies, radiational cooling should allow temperatures to drop into the lower 20s where winds remain near calm. However if a light southwesterly breeze can develop after the ridge axis passes, lows may remain slightly warmer than forecast.
Also, a back door cold front will shift winds out of the north and northeast across the eastern plains on Thursday.
624 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 A cold front moving into the area will cross the region by this evening. Behind the cold front, drier and cooler air will settle across the area through the weekend. Cold front moving through the central Midlands at 22z. As the front and trough axis cross the region this evening winds will shift to the west and become gusty as cold air advection takes place and continues through the night.
For the short term period, tonight into Thursday night, upper ridge over the western portion of the country, and a deep trough/closed low over the eastern portion of the country, puts the CWA under a N/NW flow aloft. light westerly flow returns for thursday night as systems exits east allowing for high pressure to build back over the region.
A longwave trough will remain draped from the Rockies to the East Coast with dry northwest flow across the ArkLaMiss region. A few impulses are progged to dive into the base of the longwave trough tomorrow, but these fast moving and weak systems will be moisture starved and no precipitation is expected. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 30s area wide with afternoon highs tomorrow in the low to mid 50s. Upper level flow out of the northwest will keep conditions cooler than normal for this time of year as cold, continental air flows overhead.
301 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 18Z surface data has the main storm system over the eastern Great Lakes with high pressure over the Plains. Dew points were in the teens from the upper Great Lakes into the northern Plains with 20s from the lower Great Lakes into the central Plains. Midnight through sunset Thursday The current forecast has dry conditions for the entire area as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
Outside of patchy high cirrus, mostly clear skies and light winds are expected, with lows falling into the lower to middle 20s.
Cold front detected by radar from near JAX international airport to NW of GNV. will steadily move southeastward Tonight, ushering in cooler air.
This is already being witnessed with northern locations already cooling into the low 60s and steadily falling.
A weather system will approach from the northwest this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and the potential for light precipitation. Generally, temperature trends are warmer than yesterday at this time, and are running above seasonal normals for February.
Winds very light across the lower elevations with some breezy conditions along the Divide. Otherwise fair conditions will occur tonight with much (relatively) warmer temps. Expect lows mainly around 20F on the plans with a few warmer temps along the mtns/plains interface. Warmer temps will occur region-wide tomorrow and it will be on the breezy to windy side over the far eastern plains as NW'erly winds of 20 to 30 mph. Temps by mid afternoon tomorrow should rise into the U40s to M50s across the plains with the warmest temps along the lower ark rvr valley.
Surface temperatures are currently above freezing with the exception of Crossville which is sitting at 32 degrees. The moisture will still being deep enough to produce some orographically-induced snow showers after the trough axis moves through the area thanks to low level northwesterly flow, but this should shut off by 12z as moisture pulls out.
257 PM MST Wed Feb 26 2020 Upper ridging remains across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the northern Great Plains. Upper ridging will build in for the end of the week, bringing much warmer temperatures to the forecast area.
311 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 Around 500 mb winds have been northerly on the back side of the recent trough that came through. This has allowed for sunny skies, although expect highs are only suppose to be around the low 40s. Winds will pick back up out of the north with a another cold front Thursday afternoon. Although the cold front will have moved in, dewpoints will come up a bit to the teens and low 20s and daytime highs will be able to reach the low 50s.
530 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 High pressure continues across the Upper Midwest region today, with north/northwesterly winds bringing a chance for Lake Effect snow to the Wisconsin South Shore. Overnight low temperatures across the region will range from the lower single digits, to a few degrees below 0.
A rather potent mid-level vorticity maxima will continue to progress eastward across the TN Valley early this evening, in tandem with the axis of a broader longwave trough extending from the western Great Lakes into the central Gulf coast. allowing a sleet/snow mix in the higher elevations in eastern north Alabama. which combined with the low temperatures will cause wind chill values to be in the upper teens and lower 20's through mid morning. high pressure and clear skies will remain through the day.
429 PM MST Wed Feb 26 2020 Upper ridging remains across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the northern Great Plains. Upper ridging will build in for the end of the week, bringing much warmer temperatures to the forecast area.
825 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 Rain will change to snow showers as a cold front passes tonight. The frontal passage will also introduce better mixing, which combined with a tight sfc gradient, will create 25 to 35 mph gusts for lower elevations and up to 50 mph in the higher terrain. Snowfall accumulations through Thursday will be 1-3 inches around and north of I-80, 2-6 inches in the higher terrain given upslope flow, with less than an inch for the rest of the region. There is uncertainty in the snowfall totals in the higher terrain, with potential for accumulations reaching warning criteria. There appears to be a few hour window late tonight when strong vertical motion and moisture within the DGZ will create moderate to heavy snow, mainly in the higher terrain.
High pressure ridging will settle over the region pretty quickly overnight and set us up for a very cold night ahead under clear skies. Do have a little concern that if winds dont drop off to very light levels the temps could remain up just a bit, but still think the northern counties should reach freezing for at least a couple of hours. The ridge will gradually shift to the east during the day on Thursday with skies remaining clear and light winds. Another cold night is expected Thursday night, but with lows a few degrees warmer.
The light snow/rain showers associated with a deep mid and upper level trof will move east this evening, with dry colder weather overnight as clouds decrease.
Total accumulations look to be on the order of 2-4 inches in the highest elevations of the Park Range.
546 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 For the ArkLaTex terminals FEW to BKN Cu will become SKC shortly with SFC winds dropping gusts as the winds decouple from the lower levels under the clear skies.
Winds may take on more of a westerly component later this afternoon as the ridge axis moves closer. This has helped keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than forecast. The net result will likely be a shorter duration of subfreezing temperatures Thursday morning. A longwave trough will remain draped from the Rockies to the East Coast with dry northwest flow across the ArkLaMiss region. A few impulses are progged to dive into the base of the longwave trough tomorrow, but these fast moving and weak systems will be moisture starved and no precipitation is expected. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 30s area wide with afternoon highs tomorrow in the low to mid 50s. Upper level flow out of the northwest will keep conditions cooler than normal for this time of year as cold, continental air flows overhead.
The high pressure area will move to the east Thursday afternoon. May see some isolated spots outside of the warning area get near or just below freezing due to cold air drainage.
Modest warming at 850 mb combined with downslope NWly momentum will allow afternoon temperatures to return to the lower 50s, which isn't far from normal for late February. Warmer mid 50s near the Oklahoma border, with the warmest upper 50s in the Red Hills SE of Dodge City.
Decided to add the Summit and eastern foothill zones into the High Wind Warning through 12Z Thursday as a result. CAG-BRX/CAG-CPR 850mb gradients of 60-70 mtrs will begin to decrease this evening, with the High Wind Warning for WY zones 106 and 110 expiring at 8 PM.
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure along the gulf coast dominates.
1113 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 The upper trough that brought the snow to the area this morning is quickly moving off to the east while a second trough is currently dropping into Missouri helping to enhance the diurnal cumulus and produce some scattered sprinkles/flurries this afternoon. This activity will dissipate by early this evening as this second trough moves off to the east at the same time there will be loss of daytime heating.
Kept the categorical snow chances in the higher terrain but feel that snow outside of the mountains and plateau will be very light so cut PoPs to account for that expected trend. Will see the low clouds break up all sites by mid morning to early afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 31 48 31 50 / 0 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 30 43 30 44 / 0 40 50 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 30 44 29 45 / 0 50 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 26 40 26 39 / 20 40 70 40 10 TN.
101 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 Dry and cooler air will settle across the area through the weekend. Strong cold advection through the early morning hours in the wake of a cold front now located off the coast. Dry and cool high pressure over TX and the western Gulf of Mexico will ridge into the area. An upper level trough over the eastern conus will shift off shore, but broad troughiness will remain over the eastern half of the nation.
156 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 The elongated upper level low over western Ontario into the northern Great Lakes this morning will move slowly to the east today. A northwest flow regime will remain over the region in the wake of the upper level low which should allow another short wave trough to move across the area overnight. Forecast soundings suggest the lower levels of the column may become saturated overnight with the approach of the short wave trough and just enough lift through this saturated layer to support some very light snow or flurries.
1140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 High pressure continues across the Upper Midwest region today, with north/northwesterly winds bringing a chance for Lake Effect snow to the Wisconsin South Shore. Overnight low temperatures across the region will range from the lower single digits, to a few degrees below 0.
May see some isolated spots outside of the warning area get near or just below freezing due to cold air drainage. The high pressure area will translate to the east into the northwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon.
345 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 Cold front has exited the region with some clouds and patches of light rain continuing to move across the region early this morning. Breezy northwest to north winds will continue to bring cooler drier air south today helping to clear skies across most of the area. Northern parts of the Nature Coast could fall to or just below freezing for a couple of hours and will be issuing a Freeze Watch for Levy county. Across the remainder of the Nature Coast we could see isolated spots drop to near freezing, but most locations will remain between 33 and 36 degrees with frost likely to develop and will be going with a Frost Advisory for Citrus, Hernando, Sumter and inland Pasco counties.
1035 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 Drier and cooler air will settle across the area through the weekend. Secondary cold front has pushed through the area this evening.
Have seen up to a half inch of accumulations in the heavier snow showers, and as temperatures continue to fall below freezing, could see some slick spots on untreated/snow-covered roads for the morning commute. Expect fairly quiet weather for the rest of today as northwesterly flow on the back side of the upper low continues to advect in colder and drier air. Temperatures this morning will start off in the mid 20s, with wind chills dipping into the low 20s/upper teens. Clouds will begin to increase again tonight ahead of a quick moving disturbance through the upper trough.
This has helped keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than forecast. The net result will likely be a shorter duration of subfreezing temperatures Thursday morning. A longwave trough will remain draped from the Rockies to the East Coast with dry northwest flow across the ArkLaMiss region. A few impulses are progged to dive into the base of the longwave trough tomorrow, but these fast moving and weak systems will be moisture starved and no precipitation is expected. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 30s area wide with afternoon highs tomorrow in the low to mid 50s. Upper level flow out of the northwest will keep conditions cooler than normal for this time of year as cold, continental air flows overhead.
1159 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 For the ArkLaTex terminals SKC with SFC winds decoupled from the lower level flow and likely to be near calm overnight. Light N/NW or calm with high pressure settling in for the night. As we decouple from the low level some areas may even go calm after midnight with a frosty night ahead.
Expect some warming today due to those warmer southwest winds and strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures tonight should be warmer, but still cold, with lows in the low to mid 30s.
1019 PM MST Wed Feb 26 2020 Upper ridging remains across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the northern Great Plains. Upper ridging will build in for the end of the week, bringing much warmer temperatures to the forecast area.
325 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 Dry and cooler air will settle across the area through the weekend. Strong cold advection through the early morning hours in the wake of a cold front now located off the coast. Dry and cool high pressure over TX and the western Gulf of Mexico will ridge into the area. An upper level trough over the eastern conus will shift off shore, but broad troughiness will remain over the eastern half of the nation.
1139 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 Upper trough currently extends from the western Great Lakes region into the Tennessee Valley, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure stretches across the southern High Plains.
1127 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 H5 analysis this morning had an area of closed low pressure over northwestern Ontario with a trough extending south into the upper Mississippi valley. West of this feature, weak ridging was noted from central California into Oregon. East of the ridge and west of the trough, north northwesterly flow extended from eastern Montana into the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended from southwestern Saskatchewan south into eastern Wyoming. Highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s with coolest readings in the northeast. Lows will be somewhat mild with readings in the lower to middle 20s.
Winds will continue to relax through the night as the center of cold high pressure approaches the the forecast area from the west. Freezing temperatures as far south as the I-10 corridor will be possible. Tomorrow will see temperatures a bit warmer as winds are not expected to be as brisk as today with high pressure setting into the gulf states.
There is a slight chance for some freezing drizzle in the James River Valley, with soundings showing a loss of ice aloft, but snow is still likely to be the predominant precipitation type. Finally looks like we'll have a break from the snow on Friday, with continued warm air advection and an upper-level ridge building to help boost temperatures into the mid 40s southwest.
All of these things should fade by late morning as the trough moves eastward.
Otherwise, a drier northwest flow regime will develop across Kansas on Friday as a deeper longwave upper trof evolves across the eastern CONUS.
420 AM MST Thu Feb 27 2020 Very light snow continues in the highest terrain of the central and northern Colorado mountains early this Thursday morning. Areas that have remained clear overnight outside of influence of the weak trough have really plummeted. A warm-air advection regime will move in on Friday afternoon resulting in warmer temperatures - afternoon highs will finally exceed seasonal averages by around 5 degrees or so under sunny skies.
Little or no snow accumulation is expected as moisture will be limited and surface temperatures will be above freezing. Once this wave departs, rising upper heights will bring dry and warmer weather to the area over the weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): As high pressure continues to settle deeper into Deep South Texas today and begins to shift to the east on Friday, skies will remain clear and winds will be light and variable through the short term. With radiational cooling, some local areas in the ranchlands may drop to near freezing before sunrise this morning, but generally, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing across the region.
250 AM MST Thu Feb 27 2020 Expect warmer and drier weather through Friday, with some locally gusty winds, at times.