Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
658 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY. IT WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST.
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST REACHING OUR NORTHERN BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT.
514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS. AND THAT WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY EVENING.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN REINFORCED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
ONCOMING COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE MS RIVER INTO N CNTRL AR. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES.
WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY. SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. WHERE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MID VALLEY JUST BEFORE DAWN AND THEN PROCEEDS EAST TO THE COAST JUST AFTER DAWN. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. A NORTHWEST -TO-SOUTHEAST 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKED TODAY IN THE MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S FOR KEY WEST AND THE LOWER KEYS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE KEYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE KEYS MONDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE AGAIN.
1007 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK HAS ALSO BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKING LIKELY FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
704 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
1002 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY. IT WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. A THERMAL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ALLOWING OFFSHORE FLOW TO COMMENCE SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
SOME MINOR POPS THIS EVENING IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS.
IN THE WEST WILL SEE THE OPPOSITE TREND IN WINDS AS LEE SIDE TROFFING DEVELOPS AND 700MB WARM ADVECTION GETS GAP WINDS GOING OVERNIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ROSEBUD. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE LOWER 50 MPH RANGE ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AND THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 8 PM.
WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST. AREAS OF FOG OR A LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS /FOG HAS ALREADY SET UP IN THE LONG VALLEY/ BY MONDAY MORNING AS NEAR- SURFACE LAYER IS FAIRLY MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/ AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.
946 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY. IT WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST.
/ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/ A cold front is moving across the area late this afternoon and evening, and will bring colder temperatures Monday, along with strong and gusty northwest winds. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.
659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
447 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE.
418 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016 A BLOCKING WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK ARE THE WEATHER DRIVERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
715 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS INCREASE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION. COOLER/MUCH DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. SEVERAL WAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND AFFECT THE REGION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 88 69 88 / 10 20 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 87 67 87 / 10 10 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 88 67 87 / 10 10 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 86 63 86 / 10 10 10 20.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENING OUT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN U. WITH THE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LINCOLN, NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO RUSSELL, KANSAS AND SOUTH TO DODGE CITY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WETTER THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE AREA. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAKER AS WELL SO COULD SEE MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW.
1002 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ABNORMALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S AGAIN. BUT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL MANAGE TO YIELD SOME AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TOMORROW GIVEN INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING RETROGRADING UPPER LOW IS NOW SHOVING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE 1.
1207 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 JUST THINNING CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MBS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING FOR FNT AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO TILT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A RANCH OF THE JET STREAM BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS NOT OF A SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS WILL INCREASE FGEN ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND GRADUALLY FORCE IT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
UPPER RIDGE OVER TX. WITH UPPER LOW OFF THE MS/AL COAST WILL CONTINUE A PREDOMINATE NNE FLOW. THE REGION IS LOCATED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROF TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF IS PROG TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. THE LOW LOOKS TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FLOW WITH A TROF PATTERN SETTLING UP BACK TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
927 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1042 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER SLIDES OFF SHORE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES FOR LABOR DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT.
742 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER SLIDES OFF SHORE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES FOR LABOR DAY.
724 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER IN MOST LOCATIONS OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
933 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
923 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE RETURN FLOW/LLJ LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION. COOLER/MUCH DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. SEVERAL WAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND AFFECT THE REGION.
/ISSUED 425 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO HOLD OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS REACHING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS DROPPING SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WAS SHIFTING EAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA.
654 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS OF 20Z. DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14KFT. IT WILL COOL INTO THE FIFTIES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
720 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
1047 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 POTENT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. HOLDING INTO THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE FROM GA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A MID-UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL DRIFT SW AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z MONDAY. ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT ROUND THE EASTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC. CONTINUED RETROGRESSION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OPENS THE DOOR FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST.
622 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 159 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S TO THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS ARND 70 DEGREES. A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US WAS BRINGING MOISTURE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER HIGH BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING WEST.
1024 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
908 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WEEK COLD FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER RIDGING AND WARMING ALOFT. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
732 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
Overnight lows mainly in the low 70s are expected.
1124 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ABNORMALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
1155 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA AT 02Z.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.
736 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER IN MOST LOCATIONS OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
702 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 ISSUED AT |659 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 MAIN COLD FRONT AND ANY PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EXPANDS WEST. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
638 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 High pressure ridge still dominating the weather through the overnight, although a cold front is approaching to nudge the benign weather out of the way. That same mid level moisture will translate into increased clouds, effectively trapping the WAA at the sfc and resulting in higher overnight lows in the NW in the lower 70s. only a few degrees cooler in the SE. A cold front draped across the Plains from north-central Minnesota to NW Kansas will slowly approach western IL over the next couple of days.
NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNS EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHER THAN A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION WITH THE EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA AT 02Z.
1255 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
938 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS IS PULLING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SO EXPECT INCREASING THIN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. EARLY EVENING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE THOUGH. A BREEZY AND DRY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
1010 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS INCREASE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 POTENT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. HOLDING INTO THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SHIFT THIS WEEK TRANSITIONING FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST TO AN UPPER RIDGE.
WE WILL BE GAINING A FEW DEGREES IN THE AIRMASS OVERALL BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ERASE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE IN THE LOW SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD AND FINISH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
917 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNDERWAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WAS LIGHT FROM THE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER AS AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP FROM THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. ESSENTIALLY THIS WILL REPRESENT THE LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER FEATURE. SLOWLY RETROGRADING DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN A SOUTH FLOW OF MOIST AIR.
415 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW IS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE FLOW IS BEING PRIMED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LOWER 70S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
This convection should exit by mid/late morning Thursday, and then all eyes are on the cold front trailing off the Great Lakes low.
119 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MILD CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
358 PM MDT WED MAR 30 2016 PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHER THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS THE SHORT LEAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IS CURRENTLY RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LULL IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED AS SUNRISE APPROACHES WITH A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COOL SURGE MOVES IN AHEAD A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
Also monitoring the development of thunderstorms farther west across south central Kansas in advance of approaching primary upper level trough and surface dryline. Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains.
219 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
UPPER LOW IS ACROSS THE NEB PNHNDLE MOVING ENE WHILE A SECOND STRONG WAVE IS CROSSING WRN SKTWN DIVING SOUTHWARD. THE COMPACT UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS TONIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE WRN SD PLAIN ADJACENT TO THE ERN BLKHLS INCLUDING THE RAPID CITY AREA WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS REACHING 35-45 WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
228 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Breezy west winds will continue to increase this afternoon as strong upper winds (60-65kt 500mb jet), associated with an elongated upper trough to the west, mix down to the surface through peak heating today. The main upper trough to the west will begin to shift east on Thursday while a weak front moves through. Slightly cooler temps can be expected as a result.
THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER WESTERN TEXAS PLACES EASTERN TEXAS WITHIN A DOWNSTREAM WAA AIR MASS.
1139 AM MDT WED MAR 30 2016 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BLACK HILLS AND IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LATEST UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY. FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SPREADING EAST INTO THE METROPLEX ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A PROGRESSION RATHER QUICKLY INTO THE ARKLATEX BY MIDNIGHT. AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES.