Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Convective temperatures on the RAP are in the 90s across IA, which looks to delay any initial convective development near the cold front until late this afternoon. While west/northwest IL is favored at this time, the low level jet will ramp back up in this high PWAT environment, which could lead to an uptick in showers and storms late this evening/early overnight hours. The lower level airmass will be on par with today's if not a bit warmer, and thus many areas will likely tag 90 or even the lower 90s. A warm frontal boundary will lift back north of the area Thursday night with hot and humid conditions continuing into this weekend.
Unseasonably warm and humid air mass is taking hold over the Ohio Valley, but the surface pattern remains quite sloppy with no mechanisms to focus convection and the cold pool associated with the upper low is solidly to our NE over Ohio. Instability looks decent, but deep moisture does not keep up with the low-level moisture and sources of lift are lacking, so expect any storms to be isolated and short- lived.
117 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will prevail through this weekend. The high will weaken and shift inland as Hurricane Maria tracks northward off the Southeast U. Thursday through Friday: An upper level trough and an axis of PWATs 1. Otherwise, above-normal highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows upper 60s/mid 70s will give way to slightly cooler Friday temps featuring in the mid/upper 80s and lows mid/upper 60s inland/lower 70s near the coast as high pressure and associated northeast winds spread into the region.
211 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A stagnant weather pattern will set up over the next several days, with mid-level ridging over the region. Fog potential is the greatest concern for tonight, with a favorable setup in the wind and pressure pattern (overall light flow with the main axis of the boundary-layer ridging just to the east).
Hi-res model guidance isn't showing the highest consistency concerning TS chances this afternoon.
201 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A mid to upper level trough will drift across the Carolinas today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. A vorticity disturbance will drift slowly eastward across eastern NC on Thursday, and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast. H8 temps and low-level thickness drop off ever so slightly, so perhaps a degree or two cooler when compared to today, but still in the same ballpark with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range.
Starting Friday the trough over the pacific northwest will deepen as it moves across the western CONUS.
407 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A quiet day is on tap with high pressure over the Northland. Temperatures will start cool across the area, but as the ridge axis pushes east of the area, southerly return flow will bring much warmer air by late this afternoon. Several of the high resolution CAMs feature showers or thunderstorms moving into the southern CWA this evening.
153 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and the coming weekend, as high pressure will remain in place across the region.
205 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A mid to upper level trough will drift across the Carolinas today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week.
Upper high this afternoon will be centered over srn IL by afternoon. This feature is not very strong but ridging does extend ne across the Great Lakes region.
GFS guidance continues to be on the low side of consensus with ECMWF on the high end.
A ridge of upper high pressure could contribute to some fog development again overnight, but will also keep dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through the weekend.
411 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 An upper level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will continue digging south today, eventually cutting off into a deep low pressure system over the desert southwest this weekend. This trough will pull low level moisture back across the entire CWA lowering temperatures a few degrees from yesterday.
H5 high centered near Indianapolis and a low pressure axis from coastal NC out to TS Jose has us beneath a northerly to northeasterly steering flow for any isolated/scattered convection to be directed by.
19z surface analysis had cold front from MN to KS with high pressure over the central plains behind it. Developing lee trough over the Rockies combined with high producing gusty west/southwest winds over much of the CWA this afternoon. Moisture looks scant, so mid/high clouds will be main effect along with the usual Black Hills/foothills downslope warming and gusty winds over the higher terrain of the Black Hills and over the southern SD plains. Dry boundary layer will preclude pops, although a few showers may develop off the Big Horns late and approach the CWA as a cold front starts to sink southeast toward CWA.
320 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017 It will be a pleasant, but breezy day across much of the area today as a significant upper-level trough continues to dig into the Great Basin.
Warm and dry pattern will be in place through much of the short term as a deep upper trough digs across the Great Basin, and increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of it over the CWA. Large scale and anomalously deep upper trough digs into the central/southern Rockies on Friday night.
Although they are likely underdeveloped, most convection allowing models are handling general convective trends ok this morning and suggest weakening over the next 3-4 hours with the typical diurnal waning of the low level jet and associated convergence and warm advection. GFS and NAM soundings both depict little inhibition by 21z with moderate to high instability, but there appears to be little convergence or focus and surface based convection is difficult to develop on retreating warm fronts. This advancing warm front will allow better mixing today and temps may reach 90 in spots central and south with muggy lows in the lower 70s tonight, possibly setting new record high mins in spots.
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will build overhead through the weekend. Early this morning, Jose continues to meander off the coast of New England, well to our east, while a ridge of high pressure is building over the midwest aloft. At the surface, the high pressure ridge extends along the Appalachians. The only fly in the ointment is the trough which brought showers and thunderstorms to western Virginia yesterday - this system remains nearby, but is slowly sinking south.
1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 15z/10am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front extending from Lake Erie southwestward through central Illinois into Oklahoma. High temperatures will only reach the lower 80s.
Still anticipate scattered to numerous storms over and near the higher terrain this afternoon and evening, but still not sure how far east storm will make it across the I-25 corridor. Starting to see some stratus develop across the lower eastern slopes of the the Pikes Peak region, which would tend to support less storms for the COS area. At any rate, best coverage will remain over the higher terrain, with the main threat from storms once again being locally heavy rainfall and the threat of flash flooding, especially over area burns scars, including but not limited to the Waldo, Hayden Pass and Junkins scars. Low level moisture remains equally impressive with 60s widespread across the lower elevations and 50s across the high valleys.
First is the presence of a low pressure circulation along a frontal zone straddling the area. With the northeast flow in place, temperatures today look to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. The strengthening north-northeast winds in the wake of the low will align well with the fetch of Lake Michigan, and as a result build waves along the Illinois and Indiana shores.
Highs today should be cooler than yesterday at nearly all locations.
The precip is being aided in general by a developing upper trough over the northeast CONUS, with warm/moist air advection underneath, and eventually a cold front impinging on the air mass. The cold front is expected to move through from northwest to southeast on Friday afternoon and evening, with the threat of significant rain ending after its passage.
118 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Aviation A cold front will move through Lower Michigan today with only scattered showers and thunderstorms then drier conditions can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds in. Forecast issues in the near term are for POPs today as cold front moves through with a few showers and thunderstorms, then the potential for some diurnally enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday as upper low comes through. Heights fall and lapse rates steepen on Friday morning as an upper low moves across the central Great Lakes with showers and thunderstorms diurnally enhanced into the afternoon.
/issued 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The upper high, which is currently centered over the southern Plains, will shift slightly to the west over New Mexico and Colorado during the next 24 hours. Highs this afternoon will be similar to yesterday, but should be about a degree warmer across our central and northern counties where an upward creep in 850mb temperatures is indicated. A weak cold front will move south across the Texas Panhandle and the northern half of Oklahoma today.
310 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will sag southward across the region this evening as low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley.
The next round of showers will develop along the sea breeze this afternoon and move inland with the highest chances (30-50 POPs) over the inland counties. During the upcoming weekend a slight uptick in winds can be expected across the central and northern waters as the gradient tightens some as an amplifying upper level trough over the eastern U. pushes an attendant cold front toward the northern Florida peninsula.
Showers and thunderstorms with the low combined with the East coast sea breeze will keep the highest rain chances in the eastern third of the CWA. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s away from the coast.
341 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front over the lower Great Lakes early this afternoon will drift southeast and cross the state tonight and Friday morning. The front will stall along the Maryland border for Friday and an unusually strong wave of low pressure for mid summer will form and move east along this boundary, pulling abundant moisture up and over the front from the south.
248 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front bisecting the KILX CWA. Thanks to cloud cover and relatively cool temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, LAPS data is showing CAPE values of only 1500-2000J/kg. Cold front will sink slowly southward tonight, pushing any lingering shower chances south of I-70 by midnight. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower 60s far northwest around Galesburg. to the lower 70s far southeast near Lawrenceville. Front will sink into the Ohio River Valley on Friday as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. A cooler/drier airmass will flow into central Illinois from the north behind the departing front. with high temperatures remaining in the lower 80s. as a western CONUS upper ridge/eastern CONUS upper trough pattern dominates.
The majority of the precipitation is expected to fall over our south and eastern areas, but storms may still develop over the higher terrain in the west. Behind this disturbance, northwest flow aloft returns as a high pressure ridge moves back over the region. Period will be borderline hot as the upper ridge pushes into the area through the weekend.
Trofs were along both coasts. the high will gradually advance into the GtLakes. A great night for opening up the windows with lows in the low-mid 60s. Cooler temperatures than what were seen the past few weeks and 2. This helps to keep temperatures slightly cooler. any small disturbance (and there are a number of them) that drops down across the area as it moves into the trough over the East could help to fire off showers or thunderstorms. There is the chance for some fog to develop thanks to the light winds/cooler temps, but kept as VFR/6SM at this point, models/guidance not showing a lot of support for sub-VFR conditions at this point.
Ridge of high pressure building over the desert southwest will continue to bring above average temperatures with chances for thunderstorms each afternoon. A weak area of low pressure off the coast through tomorrow, and a departing jet streak, will continue to allow enough instability for thunderstorms to form along the eastern Sierra in the afternoon and move into western Nevada south of I-80.
A weak cold front will then push into eastern WA this afternoon.
352 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A few showers have developed over the past hour in the vicinity of a prefrontal trough/cold front in western and central Oklahoma. Additional storms are forming in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles in advance of a mid level trough axis/vort max.
A weak front will cause winds to turn out of the northwest Friday morning, with ridging expected to build back over the region. Best chances will be over the higher terrain and western areas.
CU field has been limited so far today as drier air moves into the region and expect the low clouds to clear out by late this afternoon. Main difference between yesterday and today will be the departure of the inverted trough as it drifts west underneath the dominant US ridge. As the ridge builds in, some drier air will return to the region between 5000 and 10000 feet.
1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 For this afternoon and evening, a vigorous short wave trough, currently located over southern Manitoba, will move southeast across northern and eastern Wisconsin.
Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s for most areas west of the Plateau, with heat index readings peaking from 98-103. A few showers had developed over the Plateau, and the higher terrain will continue to have better rain chances today, around 30 percent.
Models still on track with pushing a rather unusually strong cold front for late July through the SE U.
646 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms before midnight. High pressure will build in on the weekend bringing a sunny and dry weekend for most areas. The cold front is shown by the latest run of the NAM12/RAP and HRRR to slide across the state tonight. The cold front is expected to stall along the coast into the midday w/some light showers lingering.
1212 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Very heavy rain is tracking across extreme eastern KS into western MO this morning where a rather strong low-level jet has been feeding copious amounts of moisture into a cold front that is slowly making its way southward. Cold front will continue making its way southward into the Ozarks tonight while a large area of high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.
With warmer column in place Friday temperatures should continue a slow warm up with all areas in the 80s.
Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the coastal waters drifting to the west-southwest. GOES 16 image of precipitable water continues to show an axis of deeper moisture with PWAT values around 2 inches along the Lower and Middle Texas coast.
148 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Seasonal summer weather through Friday with high pressure over the Southwest.
This is due to a weak pressure pattern across the Keys, with Florida bisecting high pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. A low pressure system will develop in the southeastern United States heading into this weekend, in response to an amplifying upper level trough. This will nudge the Atlantic ridge eastwards, resulting in light winds slackening and turning more southerly then southwest to west through the weekend. Rain chances will edge upwards later in the weekend as lower level flow becomes confluent and strengthens a bit in response to the low over the southeastern United States.
The dry air is associated with the high over the gulf riding into the area. This high has also kept dew pt temps lower over our area by drier air mixing down into the boundary layer.
343 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will build in on the weekend. The cold front is shown by the latest run of the NAM12/RAP and HRRR to slide across the state tonight. The cold front is expected to stall along the coast into the midday w/some light showers lingering.
224 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017 There is a weakly unstable air mass in place across the central High Plains today in the wake of yesterday cold front. The missing ingredient for thunderstorms is forcing, with no surface features and ridging aloft. Nonetheless, might see a few storms drift into northeast Colorado later tonight off the Cheyenne Ridge, however they will be weakening by that time and will dissipate after midnight. Will go ahead and carry some patchy fog overnight and early Friday morning with the high dew points and light upslope winds. On Friday, the upper ridge retrogrades just enough to allow the central Plains to get under more of a northwest flow aloft.
On Friday the ridge over S FL responsible for lower than normal storm coverage during recent afternoons will become less of a player as US E coast trough north of FL begins to undergo amplification.
A combination of surface and upper ridging of high pressure will then control the weather for our area with mostly clear skies starting Friday night, and remaining dry until at least next Thursday. A gradual fill-in of the cloud deck should occur tonight as cooler temperatures on north winds overtake the area. A fairly sharp upper trough will drop southeast across the Great Lakes Friday and with it, a low threat for showers or thunder continuing in our far east and southeast counties at least through the morning hours Friday.
Additionally, as storms move into the lower deserts, DCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg could result in wind gusts of 50-60 mph.
306 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern MT, with frontal boundary stretching southeast into far western SD. Weak high pressure is centered over northeast ND. Upper level analysis shows weak ridging over the high plains, with trough off the pacific NW coast. Skies are variably cloudy across the area with temps mostly in the 80s over areas where it has been dry, cooler over rainy areas.
256 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front over the lower Great Lakes early this afternoon will drift southeast and cross the state tonight and Friday morning. The front will stall along the Maryland border for Friday and an unusually strong wave of low pressure for mid summer will form and move east along this boundary, pulling abundant moisture up and over the front from the south.
However, a weak cold front has moved farther south than expected resulting in a variable wind direction at all TAF sites.
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Cold front/prefrontal trough extends from near Erick to around El Reno/Piedmont to an area of low pressure in north central Oklahoma. A cold front will move south slowly across the area today bringing a shift to northerly winds, and possibly a brief period of MVFR stratus this morning to GAG/WWR. For the next several days we will be on the eastern periphery of mid- upper high heights center to our west.
Dry weather is then expected for the rest of the overnight hours into Friday as high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes region. Some patchy fog is once again possible later tonight, however it should mainly be limited to the far north given the lower temperatures and lighter winds.
128 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Surface cold front crosses our region bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms today. Finally beginning to see some clearing across northwest New York in the wake of a pre- frontal trough passage which brought a round of light showers to the region this morning. These showers are exiting east of the Connecticut River Valley right now, and for the remainder of the day the focus will be on the potential for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing as instability increases from west to east ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold air advection behind departing cold front will keep temperatures a bit on the mild side for Friday with max temps only in the mid 70s. We'll be locked in with light cold air advection and high pressure building into the North Country.
Another hot and humid day on tap for Friday as high pressure remains in control of the area weather but begins to be pushed southward by an approaching cold front. Expect afternoon temps to top out in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Rain chances begin to increase overnight Friday night as the upper low over the Great Lakes drops southward forcing the surface front toward the Gulf Coast.
407 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 The upper level ridge axis continues to hold strong across the southern CONUS with mostly middle 90s for highs this afternoon. Unfortunately, we've got one more hot day ahead on Friday before the cooler and drier air really begins to arrive.
Cooler Weather for the Next Several Days. Forecast concerns will be early morning fog then cooler temperatures and spotty thunderstorm chances.
The much anticipated cold front is currently located over northwest Oklahoma, extending northeast into southeast Kansas/southern Missouri.
203 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 203 PM CDT One more afternoon of muggy conditions will come to an end as a large area of high pressure builds southeast into the midwest tonight. Ahead of the high weak upper level forcing atop the moist low level airmass has led to a few showers this afternoon along and north of the surface boundary across central IL, with some occasional gusty winds. KMD 1219 PM CDT High pressure expected to slowly build across the region through the weekend.
424 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front continues to sink southward through the Ohio Valley this evening into the overnight hours. Convection will increase again across north GA after daybreak as the aforementioned cold front approaches north GA. A more active day is expected on Friday as the aforementioned cold front approaches the region. This cold front will bring increasing thunderstorm chances especially across the northern half of the area as it moves southward. Short wave moving across southern Canada will dig into the eastern trough and develop a closed low over the Delmarva Peninsula.
850 mb jet streak will remain active south of the low which will be across central MO towards sunrise. We are expecting the highest QPF early this morning across central MO where a widespread 1 to 1. The cloud cover and rainfall will put an end to the extreme heat we have had for the past couple of weeks with highs from the low 80s in the northeast to low 90s southwest. It will also be cooler as we remain in a northwest flow aloft with a trough axis across the eastern U.
Heavy rain and small hail the most likely threat given the high PWAT air mass lingering over the area but gusty winds also possible. High pressure redevelops over the Great Basin through the weekend. Expect warmer temperatures as well, so convective temperatures may be easier to reach.
It is possible that the low level jet could spark some elevated overnight convection across the central CWA the next couple of nights, so will look more closely at those possibles with the afternoon update. At the surface, high pressure will be dominant over the Northern Plains through the day Friday, then gets pushed east, with the CWA being situated between it and low pressure over the lee of the Rockies.
North of the trough/low-level boundary, there were residual areas of light showers and sprinkles, but mostly south of I-80. Highs are forecast in the lower to middle 80s. Lows are forecast in the lower 60s on avg.
Temperatures in the low 90s, dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index generally within a 100-105 range.