Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current surface analysis places low over southwestern Saskatchewan, with cold front dropping to the south. For today, additional showers will continue to develop and move into the area this morning, pushing east through the day as the cold front moves through the area. Winds will be on the increase behind the cold front, leading to a windy afternoon over much of the area. A few showers will linger mainly over eastern portions of the area in the evening while the upper low moves east over northern North Dakota and starts to stack up with the lower features overnight.
303 AM PDT Thu May 19 2022 A trough over the Western U.
442 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Current surface analysis places low over southwestern Saskatchewan, with cold front dropping to the south. For today, additional showers will continue to develop and move into the area this morning, pushing east through the day as the cold front moves through the area. Winds will be on the increase behind the cold front, leading to a windy afternoon over much of the area. A few showers will linger mainly over eastern portions of the area in the evening while the upper low moves east over northern North Dakota and starts to stack up with the lower features overnight.
1032 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 Around sunrise, a narrow, lengthy boundary consisting of towering cumulus and showers drifted northward along the leading edge of deep moisture rounding a deep layer ridge over the western north Atlantic. Light east to southeast breezes will become light to gentle southeast to south breezes this afternoon, as high pressure over the western north Atlantic extends over the region.
/issued 443 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022/ One last hot and dry day today, then moisture surges north over the area for Friday as high pressure lifts north.
Passes along the Divide will be of particular vulnerability to periods of snow covered roads as road surface temperatures cool to near freezing after sunset.
/19/ Overall, high pressure remains in control of the weather across the region through the period. Quiet and hot conditions will persist, with highs again climbing into the low and middle 90s this afternoon and lows only falling to around 70 tonight. While Friday doesn't look favorable for hitting record high temperatures, still wouldn't be a surprise if a few spots do over achieve and reach record high temps especially those pockets of areas who may see more sun and are naturally warmer. As we head into the weekend, an approaching cold front along with increased southerly flow will help return rain and diurnal storm chances to the region this weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid level ridging will remain in control across Deep South Texas in the short term. As dew points gradually increase, heat indices will reach the triple digits for most of Deep South Texas (excluding the Lower Valley and the coast) today, and will expand across most of the region on Friday. On Friday, highs will be a few degrees warmer than today. Persistent moderate to strong south-southeasterly winds through the later part of the week into the weekend will increase wave heights and the wave period, therefore the rip current risk will increase at the lower Texas coastal beaches.
Mostly clear skies and noticeably warmer at forecast time. In fact, we're about 15 degrees warmer than this time last night.
Meanwhile, a large upper trough will sink across the western CONUS through Friday with flow aloft becoming increasingly southwesterly locally.
A cold front will begin moving across KGUY and KDHT between 08Z and 12Z Friday with northwest winds in its wake.
Low pressure area will move into the Great Basin late tonight and early Friday.
However, mid level ridging will work to suppress convection this afternoon, resulting in PoPs around 20%, topping out at 30% near Lake Okeechobee later in the afternoon. (Previous Discussion) The 915MHz wind profiler at the Cape shows steady low-level southerly flow has developed underneath a mid-level ridge situated across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Today is likely going to be the hottest day of this week, with temperatures reaching the low 90s along the coast, and mid 90s west of I-95. High pressure across the Atlantic basin will build into the eastern Caribbean.
/issued 432 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid level ridging will remain in control across Deep South Texas in the short term. As dew points gradually increase, heat indices will reach the triple digits for most of Deep South Texas (excluding the Lower Valley and the coast) today, and will expand across most of the region on Friday. On Friday, highs will be a few degrees warmer than today. Persistent moderate to strong south-southeasterly winds through the later part of the week into the weekend will increase wave heights and the wave period, therefore the rip current risk will increase at the lower Texas coastal beaches.
532 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 Scattered showers will end this morning as high pressure builds in.
As surface heating continues, temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 80s, potentially approaching the lower 90s across the far southern valley. This mornings update includes updates to hourly PoPs, and hourly temperatures based observations indicating temperatures warming a bit warmer than forecast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 70 92 70 90 / 20 20 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 68 93 69 90 / 40 40 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 92 68 90 / 50 40 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 62 92 65 90 / 60 50 10 0 40.
/issued 229 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/ Thunderstorm outflow from the MCS currently across northwestern Oklahoma is pushing into our northern zones and is bringing gusty winds in excess of 30 knots along with cooler temps. Today should be noticeably hotter for most areas across the FA as thicknesses increase across the region amid weak upper ridging to near zonal flow. The increase in temps for today will also be aided by southwesterly surface winds as a result of a surface lee trough. The amplitude of the mean troughing aloft and the length of the meridional waveguide will reinforce the baroclinic gradient along the front, with significant CAA trailing behind as the northerly fetch extends into Alberta and Manitoba.
Much drier and cooler air has been filtering into the region in the wake of the cold front. Expecting colder temperatures tonight with lows likely dropping to or just below freezing for much of the agricultural zones, so a Freeze Warning has been issued to account for this threat.
252 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 The closed low currently over Baja California will continue its trek ESE across northern Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Lee surface pressure falls shift to eastern New Mexico tomorrow out ahead of the aforementioned closed low over northern Mexico and a deepening broad synoptic trough to our north.
A cold front will move into the northwest part of the area during the afternoon with a shift to northwest winds and a drop in temperature expected.
I did go with a slightly warmer guidance for lows tonight following the trend.
A warm front extends from the central Mid-Atlantic west across southern KY into a mesoscale induce convective vortex (MCV) center over Missouri. North of the warm front, the airmass was dry and stable. South of the warm front, the airmass was moist and quite unstable with SBCAPES of 3000+ j/KG across TN/KY. For our forecast, we used the HREF which seems to have the most realistic representation of where and when showers/storms will develop with progression downstream along the warm front. There were at least one or two members that developed a bonafide MCS, those members having this feature move along the warm front from KY into WV during the overnight. After tonight, the warm front is expected to lift north, leaving the forecast area under building high pressure.
Cold front currently over the Plains will push eastward on Friday.
(Rest of Today) A zonal mid/upper level flow over the region should over the next few days become more amplified, as troughing develops over the western CONUS, and ridging amplifies off of the east coast. Late morning temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with SW-W winds of 5-10 mph. Thus slightly warmer temperatures are more likely this afternoon. Highs should rise into the lower 90s for most spots.
114 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 High pressure will prevail through Friday. The high-res models are not particularly aggressive with convection today, though the HREF shows some activity along the sea breeze which seems unlikely. Tonight: Heights will continue rising this evening and overnight as a ridge starts to develop off the Southeast coast. Increasing, deep ridging aloft as well as a relatively dry air mass above H85, will keep rain chances non-existent Friday.
1232 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 (Rest of Today) A zonal mid/upper level flow over the region should over the next few days become more amplified, as troughing develops over the western CONUS, and ridging amplifies off of the east coast. Late morning temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with SW-W winds of 5-10 mph. Thus slightly warmer temperatures are more likely this afternoon. Highs should rise into the lower 90s for most spots.
Expect dry conditions tonight with low temperatures in the low 70s and lingering cloud cover.
Deep tropical moisture remains poised to flow into the Keys from the southeast and south, rounding a broad ridge in the western north Atlantic.
Also during the evening, the trailing cold front over IA is expected to trigger a broken line of storms that will also move toward south central WI for late tnt. The cold front will then gradually pass on Fri but rising 500 mb heights are expected.
These winds are forecast to then increase this evening and overnight in response to an approaching cold front.
Such features are interesting in that they share a number of similarities with tropical cyclones, for example. Today-Tonight: A fairly robust (982-985 mb) lee cyclone will develop in eastern CO this afternoon -- in response to strengthening cyclonic flow aloft over the northern/central Rockies. On the eastern periphery /warm sector/ of the cyclone. An evaporatively-cooled airmass -- emanating from precipitation in the lee of the northern Rockies -- will surge southward along the lee of the central Rockies late this afternoon and evening, manifesting as an effective cold frontal passage in the 00-05Z time frame. will round the base of a broad upper level trough over the Intermountain West (Fri).
(This evening through Friday) Very hot temperatures are the rule across the area this afternoon, with highs once again reaching into the low to mid 100s across our southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas counties and 90s elsewhere. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning, reaching the I-44 corridor by late morning or early afternoon before stalling. Additional storms will be possible behind the cold front, especially across northeastern portions of the area, with these storms mainly posing a risk for hail due to their expected elevated nature. Fire weather concerns will continue today and tomorrow for our western north Texas counties behind the dryline and ahead of the cold front tomorrow.
(Tomorrow through Thursday) Cold front moves into NE OK by early afternoon and near the Interstate 44 corridor by late afternoon.
This high should amplify somewhat towards the weekend. Meanwhile out west, a system moving ashore the Pacific NW will induce troughing over the western CONUS. Temperatures with winds staying in the 5-10 mph range at the surface and stronger aloft could yield even warmer lows.
217 PM MDT Thu May 19 2022 19z surface analysis had low over southeast SD with cold front into southeast WY. Attention then turns toward disposition of upper low spinning into northeast MT per water vapour this afternoon. Later tonight into Friday, upper low drops into northern MN, swinging well-defined cyclonic flow/upper trough into MT/WY/western SD. Result will be 1-3" of snow over the higher elevations with locally higher amounts possible given some high resolution model depictions.
Upper level ridging will relax today; however, it should remain enough in place to keep the current afternoon forecast on track. The upper ridge will breakdown tonight into early Friday as a broad upper trough moves out of the central US. With higher dewpoints up in the low 70s, heat indices will likely climb into the mid to upper 90s on Friday. Some patchy fog may be possible over south central Alabama late tonight where enough of the influence from the ridge will allow for radiational cooling.
The cold front from last night has left behind cold, breezy and showery conditions throughout the Northern Rockies. Tonight another cold front will push into western Montana from the north and east causing another round of widespread precipitation with northerly winds.
Latest satellite imagery showing flat fair weather cumulus across much of the region as temperatures push into the lower 90s. Regional radar showing some isolated convection forming along the ridges of NC possibly associated with a weak disturbance crossing the mtns. Continue to highlight the highest pops over the northern Midlands but only chance at this time. Temperatures likely a degree or two warmer across the area with the exception of the CSRA where a bit of high clouds will push in during the afternoon but otherwise expect mostly sunny skies. Moisture begins to return Friday night as the ridge axis shifts offshore and deep southerly flow returns to the forecast area.
An approaching trough is bringing gusty winds to the region, primarily north of the Mogollon Rim. Tomorrow, the base of the trough moves closer and heights fall, resulting in temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than today.
A weak cold front has stalled out across the region early this morning. A warm front will lift northward this evening, and could be the focus for some severe storms as some models hint at MLCAPEs upwards of 2500 J/kg along with 25-35 kts of deep shear. Of more concern is the afternoon thunderstorm activity possible ahead of an approaching upper trough and in the vicinity of a cold front.
After midnight, a strong cold front will sweep through western Kansas and envelop the entire CWA by sunrise tomorrow. Wind speeds will be the highest shortly after fropa with a slight decrease as the day progresses.
Temperatures trended a degree or so warmer, which has caused snowfall amounts at lower elevations to be reduced.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue into the evening with Lows only dropping in the low 70s under southwesterly winds.
313 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Winds will be the main threat for the next few hours behind a cold front passing across the area. Expect isolated to scattered showers in our northwest flow at the surface as the main 500mb trough slides across the forecast area.
A much cooler and windy day is in store today across the area. Breezy winds were observed overnight behind a cold front in the lower elevations with strong, gusty winds on mountain peaks. As daytime heating increases, strong winds aloft will further mix down into the lower terrain. High temperatures today will be around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs only in the 50s in the lower elevations. Finally, temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s in the agricultural valleys, with temperatures dipping below freezing in the Magic Valley by early Friday morning. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt and up to 40 kt in the Lower Snake River Plain, decreasing to W-NW 5-15 kt after 20/12Z.
As surface heating continues, temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 80s, potentially approaching the lower 90s across the far southern valley. This mornings update includes updates to hourly PoPs, and hourly temperatures based observations indicating temperatures warming a bit warmer than forecast. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 92 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 93 69 90 69 / 10 0 0 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 92 68 90 68 / 10 0 0 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 92 65 90 64 / 20 10 0 40 20.
Areas from Billings west have seen gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range frequently since about 10am, with a few locations spiking into the lower 60s. Expect this activity to diminish later this afternoon and dissipate early evening as the upper low approaching from the north kicks dynamics southeast of the area. Upper low mentioned above will drop south pushing a Canadian cold front through the area late tonight. Winds will turn sharply northerly as the cold front passes and speeds will remain elevated through mid day on Friday, though much weaker than today. Precipitation chances will increase through the night as energy with the upper low combines with increasing upslope northerly low level winds.
The warm quiet weather pattern will continue tonight as mid/upper ridging persists across the region. Lows tonight should range from the lower and mid 70s inland. Overnight lows could be warmer tomorrow/Fri night per the increased cloud cover and onshore flow.
300 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Potent upper low is located west of Winnipeg this afternoon. An elongated area of deep low pressure extends from eastern Colorado to eastern South Dakota just ahead of a strong southeastward moving cold front. Surface winds have become west to southwest ahead of the cold front this afternoon which has shunted the richer low-level moisture/humidity well east of the area. Any surface based convection that develops along the cold front will remain east of the area where the better low-level moisture resides.
A cold front will turn winds northerly from 09-13Z and have gusts of 25-30kts again.
The jet stream will sag south of our area tonight while colder air with the upper trough comes in from the north. The Treasure Valley should stay slightly above freezing. Gradual warming is expected after that so no repeat of freezing temperatures should occur Friday. However, even though low elevations will get warmer, cold air will continue aloft, resulting in steepening lapse rate and destabilization.
Light southerly winds will continue as the western Atlantic ridge lifts north into central FL. Overnight lows will be average to slightly above average for this time of years with lows in the low 70s. Mostly dry with the axis of the western Atlantic ridge lifts into the local waters.
A warm front is currently draped across Central Indiana with the southern half of the CWA in the warm sector. An upper wave over Illinois along with the approaching MCV will provide the main forcing for storms with the warm front providing subtle forcing and enhanced directional shear. A cold front will slowly begin to approach Central Indiana late Friday night with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across mainly NW counties. Confidence is low in any precipitation for Friday night as guidance continues to trend slower with the approaching cold front.
All of this being said, with strong southeasterly winds bringing in warm, moist air from across the Straits of Florida, along with a blanket of mid- and upper-level clouds persisting through tomorrow evening, likely shower chances and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s remain appropriate, although a few passing showers could result in a brief drop in temperatures to the lower to mid 70s. From synopsis, high pressure over the western north Atlantic will gradually drift north, building and extending westward into the southeast U.
509 PM MDT Thu May 19 2022 19z surface analysis had low over southeast SD with cold front into southeast WY. Attention then turns toward disposition of upper low spinning into northeast MT per water vapour this afternoon. Later tonight into Friday, upper low drops into northern MN, swinging well-defined cyclonic flow/upper trough into MT/WY/western SD. Result will be 1-3" of snow over the higher elevations with locally higher amounts possible given some high resolution model depictions.
A dry cold front will continue to move into the CWA from the north with cool temps and gusty N/NW winds continuing into the overnight before trending lighter.
Overnight low temperatures in the lower 70s will be near high-minimum records at each climate site. Expect dry conditions tonight with low temperatures in the low 70s and lingering cloud cover.
Low temperatures are on track to remain in the low 70s. I did go with a slightly warmer guidance for lows tonight following the trend.
Today is the last day for unsettled, and cooler than normal weather. Then, a ridge of high pressure will bring our first thermal trough that we have seen for a while with conditions turning drier and warmer beginning this weekend.
633 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Potent upper low is located west of Winnipeg this afternoon. An elongated area of deep low pressure extends from eastern Colorado to eastern South Dakota just ahead of a strong southeastward moving cold front. Surface winds have become west to southwest ahead of the cold front this afternoon which has shunted the richer low-level moisture/humidity well east of the area. Any surface based convection that develops along the cold front will remain east of the area where the better low-level moisture resides.
The cold front has moved southward through central and western Nebraska with much more humid air moving in behind. Potent upper low is located west of Winnipeg this afternoon. An elongated area of deep low pressure extends from eastern Colorado to eastern South Dakota just ahead of a strong southeastward moving cold front. Surface winds have become west to southwest ahead of the cold front this afternoon which has shunted the richer low-level moisture/humidity well east of the area. Any surface based convection that develops along the cold front will remain east of the area where the better low-level moisture resides.
/issued 252 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022/ The closed low currently over Baja California will continue its trek ESE across northern Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Lee surface pressure falls shift to eastern New Mexico tomorrow out ahead of the aforementioned closed low over northern Mexico and a deepening broad synoptic trough to our north.
Generally dry and relatively warmer conditions will stretch into Friday.
620 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Winds will be the main threat for the next few hours behind a cold front passing across the area. Expect isolated to scattered showers in our northwest flow at the surface as the main 500mb trough slides across the forecast area.
635 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 (This evening through Friday) Very hot temperatures are the rule across the area this afternoon, with highs once again reaching into the low to mid 100s across our southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas counties and 90s elsewhere. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning, reaching the I-44 corridor by late morning or early afternoon before stalling. Additional storms will be possible behind the cold front, especially across northeastern portions of the area, with these storms mainly posing a risk for hail due to their expected elevated nature. Fire weather concerns will continue today and tomorrow for our western north Texas counties behind the dryline and ahead of the cold front tomorrow.
Temperatures likely a degree or two warmer across the area with the exception of the CSRA where a bit of high clouds will push in during the afternoon but otherwise expect mostly sunny skies. Moisture begins to return Friday night as the ridge axis shifts offshore and deep southerly flow returns to the forecast area.
Post sunrise mixing on Friday will offer sunshine through the rest of the day with temperatures maxing in the lower 90s alongside a southerly breeze.
This trough is interacting with a stationary surface boundary that stretches from E-W near the Ohio River. Expect overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the low 70s.
131 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022 High pressure is anchored off the East Coast, and we've got plenty of return flow to keep the air mass over Middle Tennessee warm and humid.