Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The forecast area remains under northwesterly mid-level flow this morning downstream of a ridge centered over Texas. Finally, the high temperature forecast and heat advisory remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to high temperatures. 92 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
1239 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Latest water vapor imagery showing a weak mid-level trough swinging through northern WI early this morning with a broken line of showers/thunderstorms staying just north of the local forecast area. Otherwise, a rather muggy airmass was in place with temperatures as of 2 am ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Mid-level heights rebound behind departing wave with high pressure also in place at the surface. As a result, look for heat indices in the lower to middle 90s south of I-94. Attention focused on incoming fairly strong mid-level wave/cold front Thursday into Thursday night with ample warmth/moisture for the front to work with.
110 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to expand over the region through Thursday providing warm and mainly dry conditions.
Main focus is Thu afternoon and evening when an upper low will move into far western Ontario and drag a cold front into western Upper Michigan. A mid/upper level low lifting ene to srn Alberta today will move into srn Manitoba by 12z Thursday and to near James Bay by 12z Fri.
325 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 (Tonight and Tomorrow) The upper high continues to grip West Central Texas through Thursday with sizzling hot temperatures. (Thursday through Wednesday) An upper level ridge of high pressure will result in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas for the next 7 days.
251 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Broad area of high pressure is in place across the region at 19Z with a cold front moving into the western Dakotas. The cold front will move southeast tonight and reach northeast Nebraska by Thursday morning and far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa late Thursday afternoon.
High pressure will remain over the Pacific Northwest for the next couple of days bringing pleasant summer weather.
Due to high pressure sitting over Texas and lighter southerly winds (5 to 10 knots with a few higher gusts at DRT) moisture has been on the decrease so no MVFR/IFR cigs are expected tomorrow. Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge firmly in place over the southern half of the country. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the southeast. In the short term, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate our region.
340 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 A low pressure system currently digging into northwest ND will slide eastward along the CanAm border through the late afternoon and evening hours. Somewhat cooler and drier westerly flow will develop on Thursday. Upper ridging will build into the Plains states as slightly cooler and drier Canadian air works its way southward. Temperatures to end the work week and start the weekend look to top out slightly below normal with values mainly in the mid to upper 70s and gradually into the lower 80s.
Tonight Through Thursday A strong low pressure trough passing through the Northern Rockies into the northern Great Basin will continue to produce strong gusty winds with very low relative humidity and an unstable air mass until 9 pm mdt. A cold front will pass through the state through the night with a sharp wind shift to the northeast. Much colder air will move in with freezing temperatures possible in the mountain valleys of the west.
658 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2016 High pressure will move off of the New England coast Thursday.
the weak upper ridging keeping most of the area dry but an upper low and troughing will ramp up the POPS late tonight across WRN KY overnight and act more like a tropical system. With upper low and trough overhead and coupled with high PWATs have increased pops to likely (even categorical from 18-21z) very heavy localized rainfall amounts are expected.
612 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 A warm front will lift north across the area tonight into Thursday morning.
High pressure is dominating the north Gulf and is supporting light to moderate onshore flow. A weak inverted mid level trough appears in the NAM from Thursday to Thursday night, moving overhead from east to west, which could enhance Thursday night streamer showers, but for now not going above silent PoPs, though future shifts may want to keep an eye on it.
Afternoon showers and storms continue to develop across the region, but have really struggled to propagate off the higher terrain. However taking a look at upstream water vapor imagery, there is a sharp area of drying over west Texas and what appears to be a weak inverted trough moving into New Mexico. A weak drying trend is forecast to begin tomorrow although taking a look at the low/mid level flow, it still retains a noteworthy easterly component.
High pressure will move off of the New England coast Thursday.
The gradient of higher pops to the east and slightly lower to the west is due to upper ridge centered over central Texas. The upper level ridge will for all intents and purposed remain in place situated west of the area throughout the rest of this week and the weekend. This keep the local area in a shear zone between that ridge and the Bermuda ridge. Not expecting much change in temperatures as well with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows mainly in the upper 70s. 18 Two weak but broad upper level highs located over Texas and off the east coast of Florida will be strong enough to keep a generally static pattern over the northern gulf.
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 A strengthening southerly flow, ahead of an APPROACHING low pressure system, will bring increasing mid level temperatures today. A cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over northwest Minnesota this evening, tracking into north central Minnesota overnight. ELevated freezing levels around 14,000 ft and warm cloud processes will limit large hail threat. The strong cold front will move east of the Northland on Thursday Night, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms out of the region as the night wears on.
324 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2016 An upper high over Texas and an upper low over Arizona are combining to keep a moist southerly flow over the Borderland tonight and again on Thursday. With the high moisture content, flooding will once again be a threat on Thursday.
slightly better mixing has resulted in dewpoints in the lower 60s. Very little change in temperatures is expected tomorrow as the center of the 500mb ridge will be directly overhead. mainly around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge.
343 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 High pressure will build off the coast tonight, allowing southerly flow to develop.
FROPA has occurred and dry air is pushing into the region, dropping RH values into the lower teens thus far.
Most of the shower activity has been relegated to the distant Gulf waters well north of the Lower Keys, as well as the Straits of Florida southeast of the Upper Keys. A low level ridge of high pressure stretched across South Florida is responsible for moderate southeast winds across our marine district and land observing stations.
With slightly warmer 500mb temperatures developing early this evening and loss of daytime heating should see a quick end to thunderstorm chances. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s for far eastern Colorado, mid 80s to around 100 elsewhere. Low temperatures in the low 60s west. A cold front works its way through much of the forecast area during the day apparently hanging up over the far east and southeast portions of the area late. High temperatures should range from the low to mid 80s in far eastern colorado with mid 80s to mid 90s east of the CO/KS border, hottest ahead of the front in the Hill City and Gove county areas.
134 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An area of weak high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will shift to the east on Thursday.
326 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 We will remain on the northeastern periphery of an upper level ridge into Thursday. With dew points generally remaining in the lower 70s, we are looking at heat indices in the 100-108 degree range over many areas.
Tonight a weak upper trof will pass by to our north as it crosses the Great Lakes. upper ridge. Winds gusting to around 20mph by Saturday afternoon will help drive temperatures into the lower and middle 80s.
132 PM PDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Highs slightly above normal for the weekend under weak high pressure.
This is in response to increasing 500mb heights as weak upper ridging starts to build in allowing the atmosphere to stabilize. A preliminarily look at the new data does not give me higher confidence that temperatures will drop at or below freezing for longer than a few hours tonight. Tonight through Saturday morning VFR is mostly expected due to incoming high clouds and near freezing temperatures, but some fog is possible in the lower valleys such as the Upper Klamath Basin and the near coastal valleys, as well as MVFR to local IFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin. Showers will diminish across the area this afternoon as high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest. Winds will become northerly Saturday morning as the area of high pressure drifts northward.
The system will exit the region to the east toward morning, leaving the region still under the influence of a large-scale upper trough.
* Synoptic Overview: Large scale trough moving across the Pacific northwest giving way to warmer southwest flow ahead for the southern High Plains. However, with the higher 0-1 SRH values of 150-250 m2/s2 this evening, if supercells are in play an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. A triple point is expected to set up along the northeast OK/TX Panhandle with a retreating dryline and a southward moving cold front throughout the evening.
A ridge aloft is providing a stable and dry air mass. High pressure over the eastern U. High pressure over the eastern U.
The exception to this will be the slight possibility of some light shwrs/tstms developing across the Cumberland Plateau Region Sat afternoon as ridging influences sfc/aloft begin to shift EWD of mid state region, allowing available atm moisture to interact with marginal instability and the orographic lifting mechanisms effects of the Cumberland Plateau Region. This sfc front will eventually push NEWD at a warm front placing the mid state in the very broad warm sector, making the weather pattern somewhat summer-like, with isolated to scattered mainly light shwrs/tstms thru at least Thu. Increasing atm moisture along with increasing chances of rainfall will result in lows Sat and Sun nights a few degrees warmer, generally in the lower 60s, upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region, with highs on Sun upper 70s to lower 80s. Dry high pressure will keep VFR conditions going across the Mid State.
338 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Chances of showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will begin to increase from west to east this evening and into tonight along a warm frontal boundary lifting northeast through the area.
329 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure to the north will shift offshore and prevail through the weekend.
309 PM PDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will provide dry and warmer weather through Saturday.
Generally above normal temperatures are expected in this regime with a lee trough/dry line a persistent surface feature. Weak forcing along with heating of the higher terrain will spark isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from the eastern New Mexico plains south into the western Permian Basin to the Davis Mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening mainly across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend where heating of the topography will enhance lift.
With high pressure remaining the dominant forcing locally, expect mostly clear skies and breezy easterly winds this afternoon that will calm overnight.
159 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure moving off of the eastern seaboard will maintain fair and dry conditions today.
Temperatures are in the the lower to mid 80s across the area.
55 High pressure continues east of Arkansas and moisture will stream into Arkansas with the south flow on the back side of the high. Today Through Saturday Night An upper ridge is over the eastern U. this morning with an upper low pressure system near the Pacific Northwest and over the Plains. The upper ridge will remain over the southeast U. as the upper low pressure systems move to the northeast and remain north of the ridge. A warm front in the Midwest this morning will slowly move north into the Great Lakes tonight. A cold front will slowly move through the Plains today and Saturday but should remain northwest of Arkansas through Saturday night. with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
315 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Stratus has been slowly dissipating this afternoon as the upper trough associated with this mornings rain has moved northeast of the area. With continued southerly flow overnight, low temperatures stay warm in the lower 60s. If some can develop, will need to watch for wind gusts possibly mixing to the surface if they can break through the low level inversion.
Strong southerly winds of 20-30mph have been common, with a few gusts in the low 40s so far today. Continue to monitor the cold front which is evident on the latest satellite image, extending across the western half of ND and into far western Corson County. While we will be monitoring convection nearing from the south by ATY later this afternoon, we will also be watching for potential shower and thunderstorm development near the cold front as it moves east of MBG around 00Z. A strong area of low pressure west of the region will push into Canada today.
Aside from the adjustment to offshore winds, the forecast remains on track for a warm, sunny day with highs in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s along the coastline.
Quiet weather tonight through Saturday given limited moisture on the NW periphery of an upper high over the SE U.
550 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 No significant convective development has occurred through 2245 UTC across south central North Dakota and into the James River Valley in a narrow warm sector ahead of a cold front near Fort Yates that occludes with a warm front in the Devils Lake basin. Water vapor shows an upper level low over southwestern Saskatchewan with a southwest flow into ND. Greatest synoptic scale and frontogenetical forcing is in the north and this is where the highest chances for precipitation exist Saturday. Much cooler Saturday for most areas with highs in the mid 50s west to mid 60s far southern James River Valley.
357 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Current conditions across the area feature high pressure still over the area but slowly shifting east. Evidence of moisture finally beginning to enter the area is apparent with cu fields in central and south central Kentucky creeping into the lower I-75 corridor. Still some dry air in place with dew points mostly in the mid 40s will allow temps tonight to drop into the lower 40s for some of the valleys. So will have a ridge to valley temperature difference again.
Isolated showers will continue across portions of southeast Georgia within the vicinity of a weak coastal trough.
Expect showers/storms to continue to increase through the evening in conjunction with increasing 850-700 mb warm/moist advection ahead of a surface warm front along with forcing from the upper wave. By later on Saturday, the cold front will approach the region with increased chances for convection during the afternoon/evening. Widespread clouds could serve to limit instability, but there is the potential for stronger storms to fire along the cold front Saturday afternoon with some hail/gusty winds.
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front will push north into the Great Lakes tonight.
With cloud cover and increasing moist/warmer southerly flow setting up not expecting the usual diurnal dropoff in temps.
/26/ Through tonight: Our region should experience the maximum effect of a transient, but relatively stout, upper ridge building over the area today before the feature translates to our east tomorrow. This ridge will help advect drier air into at least east and southeast portions of MS by the afternoon and help boost high temperatures in those areas into the upper 80s in some cases. Tonight, a plug of dry air advecting in from the southeast in association with the ridge (which will be starting to depart by that time) will ensure subtly increasing south to southeasterly low flow only has a chance to produce late night stratus in southwestern zones.
1240 PM PDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Low pressure lingering over the region on Friday will promote cool, showery, and breezy conditions.
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure over New England will move offshore tonight.
157 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Somewhat moist west flow east of a long wave low pressure trough will bring areas of showers, mainly snow above 7700 feet as short wave low pressure troughs move east through the flow.
333 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Quiet weather tonight into the first half of Saturday when high pressure will shift east of New England allowing a frontal system to approach from the southwest.
223 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure off of the eastern seaboard will maintain fair and dry conditions into Friday.
615 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front will return rain chances for Saturday.
144 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front will linger across the northern portions of the region today before lifting north tonight.
Ridging at both the sfc and the upper levels will make for an overall dry and pleasant day across the CWA. Still not out of the question a few showers and thunderstorms could develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of northeast Georgia where orographic effects would work in tandem with diurnal heating. This seems to be where the best instability is forecast and the west side of far n GA is closer to the upper ridge. The upper ridge drifts e across the area for Saturday and looks to continue quiet weather as a warm southerly low level flow continues.
An upper level trough will maintain showers over the region through this evening. Showers will dwindle overnight then come to an end Sat as high pressure moves into the area.
/ISSUED 425 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/ A southeasterly fetch off the Gulf is remarkably dry at 850mb as it swings around the periphery of an anticyclone over the southeastern states. Weak troughing will remain above North and Central Texas today, and even with some sunshine, afternoon temperatures will only be a few degrees above normal.
116 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Dry conditions will continue until rain chances return with weekend low pressure.
/issued 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Despite mid-level ridging steadily building over the Lone Star State, enough low level moisture will exist to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms today.
343 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather tonight. The next chance for showers arrives Saturday afternoon and evening with a warm frontal boundary.
302 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Upper level analysis has ridging shifting to the east with large trof over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is located across southern Canada, with a cold front currently across central SD. Large occluding low pressure system will spin across south central Canada as upper low develops within the trough over that same area. Cold front will shift east of the forecast area this evening.
Another upper wave and the surface cold front will push across late Saturday morning and afternoon. Daytime heating and dew points pushing 60 degrees with little capping should allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop with activity most widespread along the cold front. Continued the highest PoPs/QPF across the eastern half of the CWA. If there's any sun during the early afternoon, could see some locations break into the low 70s. For the most part we'll be dealing with zonal flow across the northern part of the CONUS through the period, meaning we'll have relatively seasonal temperatures and periodic chances for precipitation as short wave troughs periodically ripple through the flow. Toward the tail end of the period we'll see things change a bit as a deep trough develops over the southwest CONUS.
Enough ridging aloft is expected today to keep any significant showers from forming with just some daytime heating type strato-cu in the low levels with VFR ceilings. /issued 423 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/ High pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS will shift eastward through the day today resulting in increasing moisture return over the region. Currently, the greatest rainfall chances and highest rainfall amounts are expected across Acadiana where model guidance is indicating that the highest precipitable water values will be juxtaposed with the maximum in mid level moisture and mid level vertical motion.
Temps JMS-BIS reaching the low 70s so did raise temps into the upper 60s-low 70s into the RRV. Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will roll into southern Canada by late Sat into Sun. Upper level jet will be on the south and east side of the upper low and over the Northern Plains late today and through 84 hours. With upper level jet moving into the area, the low level jet will respond. Cold front over western MT will move through Fri night. Another cold front will move through Sat afternoon/evening.
Occasional afternoon breeziness can be expected throughout much of the upcoming week as weak dry troughs moves through the area. Longwave trouging remains in place across the southwestern CONUS this afternoon associated with a large upper low over Washington and Oregon. Longwave troughing will remain in place through the weekend with only minor day to day variations in thicknesses, temperatures, and cloud cover.
238 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Strong high pressure building southeastward from Ontario and Quebec will provide sunny skies, pleasant temperatures, and light winds across the North Country today. The ridge of high pressure will shift east of New England on Saturday, allowing a frontal system to approach from the southwest.
Shower chances will increase this evening with the best chances over the Absarokas and north through Livingston and Harlowton, gradually spreading north and east overnight as an associated cold front swings through the area. Temperatures will drop to near freezing overnight, so some minor snow accumulations are possible.
403 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure off of the eastern seaboard will maintain fair and dry conditions into Friday.
/issued 1027 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/ All in all a fairly quiet day expected for this Friday, with temps topping out in the low to mid 80s areawide.
247 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Wv imagery shows weak disturbance over the lower MS River Valley somewhat cut-off from the main jet, which has displaced itself nwd over the OH River Valley due to upper ridge over the SE CONUS.
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Warm front expected to lift further north through today. A frontal boundary just south of I-72 is expected to lift back north as a warm front today, and should get north of CWA during early afternoon. Convection chances to diminish from sw to ne during this evening as warm front pulls further north away from area and mid level level short wave moves into western Great lakes. Upper level ridge over IL today continues to influence IL's weather on Saturday bringing a breezy and even warmer day in the lower 80s across the area. Should stay dry on Saturday with a cap in place, though GFS model is showing some qpf in southeast IL on Sat, but discounted that for now with upper level ridge nearby.
155 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build southward into the area today and linger over the central NC through Saturday.