Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another chilly night in store as a reinforcing cold front has swept through the area and is situated south of Marshall/Dekalb Counties. Although we are slightly warmer than our forecast temperature trend, thinking that with dew points in the upper teens/lower 20s, once the winds diminish, temps will drop quickly. Mid level clouds continue to linger in areas east of Huntsville so temps will stay a little warmer there until the clouds clear out. Won't make many changes to the forecast lows which should still fall to the lower 20s.
1016 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE Strong ridge of high pressure aloft centered over CA and NV with northwest flow over NM. Winds will remain light except along a few back door cold fronts where some brief breezes are possible. The cold fronts will be rather weak, and will only provide a few degrees of cooling in most instances.
A clipper system will dig across the Upper Mississippi Valley area on Monday driving a cold front south across the area.
1146 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A low pressure system rotates into the area tonight with windy conditions and mountain snow showers.
1238 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Digging upper trough and cold front push east overnight.
301 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning with high pressure nosing back into the region for the southwest.
Day time humidity levels will drop below critical fire weather thresholds for most of the lower elevations again on Sunday. Sunday should yield temperatures a degree or two warmer than today's. -KT The omega block off the west coast and stationary trough over the eastern conus will keep dry northwesterly flow across Southern Colorado for the next several days.
334 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Synoptic setup over the CONUS this morning showed a continued ridge of high pressure west of the Rocky Mountains to the West Coast and a longwave trof axis over the East Coast. These conditions will aid in afternoon temperatures climbing into the low/mid 60s for much of Eastern Oklahoma with upper 50s/low 60s possible for Northwest Arkansas. Winds should subside Monday night as the trof axis pushes southeast through the region.
A dry deep-layer northwest flow remains in place through the near term as a broad upper longwave trough pushes east over the eastern seaboard. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure builds east from central Texas across the northern Gulf, maintaining the light west to northwest winds across the local area. High temps reach the low to mid 50's areawide this afternoon, a good 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows tonight dip below freezing once again for most, with mid to upper 20's inland and low to mid 30's along the coast.
Temperatures are expected to drop to around or just below freezing across portions of Levy County, where a freeze warning is in effect. Locations along and near the Gulf Coast can expect temps in the lower to mid 40s.
Currently, a highly amplified Pacific western ridge / eastern trough pattern remain in firm place over the CONUS. At the surface a weak backdoor cold front has meandered into the area as evidenced by drier dewpoints from northeast to southwest.
Dry air in the low levels should preclude any measurable snow. Have gone with highs there in the upper 30s to lower 40s, while areas north of I-80 will likely be limited to the lower to mid 30s, close to blended model guidance.
1215 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Low pressure off Virginia coast will continue to lift northeast tonight.
1036 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS and a deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country. Temps have risen into the 50s across most plains locations with some temperatures east of the Black Hills hitting the low 60s. Warmer air moving in will bring temps into the 50s to low 60s across a wider area tomorrow under mostly sunny skies. A cold front will cross the area Sunday night into Monday bringing cooler weather.
While we will be void of any precip chances, northwest flow aloft will allow for a pair of cold fronts to traverse the Panhandles.
319 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 An upper level trough presently centered over the Ohio Valley will shift eastward today while upper level ridging to our west nudges into our area. Low pressure over south central Canada drops into the Upper Mississippi Valley by late tonight, driving a cold front into our area by Monday morning. The cold front sweeps through the region on Monday, and it will become windy in a tight gradient and winds at the top of the mixed layer running around 40 to 45 kts, resulting in the potential for near Wind Advisory criteria at times, so will be something to watch for in future forecasts.
356 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Cold and dry high pressure will be over the region today through Monday night with temperatures well below normal.
A weaker wave is passing through now (10z), bringing a weak cold front and associated weak cold air advection. The warm air advection snow should be done by around 06z, and then the cold front propagates through the region (06z to 15z from north to south). High pressure moves over the region overnight Monday allowing temperatures to reach closer to normal lows, i.
Attention then turns to low pressure diving southeast out of Saskatchewan Canada into northern MN Sunday night. Therefore, will have to watch for some patchy freezing drizzle as there will be lift in the lingering stratus layer. Low pressure moves through the area on Monday for a continued chance of some light snow along with the possibility of some patch freezing drizzle in the morning. Bulk of the precipitation looks to push east of the area by afternoon as the low pulls into the Great Lakes Region, however, could still see some lingering flurries or drizzle as there will be plenty of lingering cloud around with weak lift.
Upstream ridge of high pressure will yield northwest flow through the period.
High amplitude ridge will remain anchored over the western U. While winds in the low to mid levels will be quite strong, low lapse rates, limited pressure rises and low-level inversions should keep strong winds from mixing to the surface. It will be cooler on Monday due to cooler air behind the system that will be moving SE out of the Dakotas.
This will occur as the upper trough currently extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will move east tonight. Highs tomorrow will climb into the 50s ahead of a cold front that will move across the area. Mostly sunny skies and southwest winds ahead of the cold front will cause temperatures to climb above normal.
A broad upper level trough remains across the the eastern us with a ridge to the west. Lowered tonight's temperatures a couple degrees cooler than guidance, especially in the normal cold spots and low elevations. A deep upper level trough will remain over the eastern half of the U. , and a upper level ridge will continue to sit along the west coast during the next seven days. These disturbances will bring multiple cold fronts through the area and each front will vary in terms of strength.
Some concern that we might see freezing fog this morning or late tonight, but based on observed trends and very dry conditions immediately above the surface, no fog is anticipated. Black ice potential exists nonetheless, but may be a little lower coverage due to slightly warmer temps. Larger scale pattern remains fairly static through the period with ridging dominating the western half of the country and troughing over the east. A couple of decent short waves sweep through the large eastern trough through the upcoming workweek.
Mondays highs move into the 40s, but the trough/wave bringing snow chances to the north and east is accompanied by the second round of deep cold air and flurries with Monday night temps drop into the 20s.
Temperatures are already rising into the low/mid 20s. Lows should be in the lower 20s northeast sections to upper 20s southwest.
Any snow should come to an end by early evening as the mid level trough and surface system that brought widespread snow to the area continue to move away from the state. Warmer temperatures are in store for Sunday with highs in the 20s at most locations.
Low temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s. For tonight a west wind around 10 mph through midnight then increasing slightly after midnight ahead of approaching cold front. some cooler air backs into the area during the day with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F (west) to 13F (east). This would support highs in the low to mid 50s which is currently advertised in the forecast.
High pressure at the surface and dry, subsiding NW flow aloft will lead to clear skies and light winds overnight. High pressure at the surface and dry, subsiding NW flow aloft will lead to clear skies and light winds overnight. Mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures, not a bad start to the weekend at all. Like this morning, there may be some patchy frost here or there in the cooler, more sheltered locations.
231 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Upper trough moves away today.
Anomalously positive mid/upper heights continue over the NW Conus into western Canada with deep large amplitude trough across the east.
328 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Southeast Texas will see some high clouds stream across the area from the southwest and west over the next couple of days as a mid/ upper level low lingers around the Baja Peninsula. After another cool start to the day (3 AM temperatures range from the low to mid 30s inland to around 50 along the coast), look for warming daytime high temperatures today and Monday as surface winds come back around to the west and southwest.
WV imagery shows the west coast ridge remains highly-amplified, has moved further inland, and is now centered over CA/NV, leaving dry, NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. To the west, a cut-off low has undercut the ridge, and is centered over Baja. The next couple of days should be similar to yesterday's, if not warmer, as 850mb temps rise under light westerly flow.
428 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Skies range from mostly cloudy in the Lower Keys to mostly clear elsewhere. Because of the cloud cover and wind trajectory, temperatures range in the mid and upper 50s to the lower and mid 60s in the Lower Keys. Surface wise, an extensive area of high pressure is centered over the Lone Star state of Texas, with a lengthy ridge reaching across the entire Gulf of Mexico and down the spine of the Florida peninsula.
Synoptic pattern this morning across the CONUS per water vapor and RAP analysis depicts a longwave trough across the east coast with northwest low to mid-level flow occurring back across the Central Plains. A H5 ridge exists over the west coast with a weak closed low anchored to the south of this ridge west of Mexico over the east Pacific Ocean. This closed low is trapped by the ridge to the north but some mid and upper-level moisture from this system will shift into the base of the longwave trough over Texas and some high clouds will stream over the region today.
305 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Low pressure will move off the mid Atlantic coast tonight.
Weak high pressure settles in again on Sunday ahead of a clipper low dropping over south central Canada. Warmer low level air will move into the region, with both 850mb and 925mb temps rising into the single digits above zero. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 20s to around 30 degrees, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 30s in west central Minnesota to the upper 50s over the southwestern CWA.
Otherwise, breezy and dry conditions expected the rest of this afternoon with not much really to talk about for the rest of the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure parked over the western states keeps any passing upper level systems to our north and east, as well as any deep cold air intrusions.
Models continue to have strong H5/H7 ridging over the western portion of the country. with a trough/upper low combo over the east. These systems will work SE into the Central Plains region before moving east and eventually get caught up in the circulation of the low/trough over the east.
147 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017 Imagery shows large scale continuing stagnant pattern in place with amplified blocking ridge west of the Mississippi (axis centered roughly along the west coast), a deep trof east, and now WY west of the inflection point but still under nrly flow aloft. The SFC has strong high pressure guarding most of the entire wrn CONUS and centered under the the ridge aloft. Through the forecast period: Persistent ridge/trof pattern (west/east) continues across the CONUS.
Weak high pressure will then build into the area later tonight into Sunday. Low clouds will linger for the first part of the overnight, then the back edge of the low clouds will work into the sw after midnight, and will gradually work e through the region. Temperatures will continue to drop, reaching the lower 20s by morning. First, a weak ridge of high pressure will move east across the region on Sunday. Highs will range from the lower to mid 30s. This feature, along with a weak trof axis, should only result in clouds. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 20s.
A large mid/upper level trough is currently situated over the eastern half of the CONUS, while an impressive mid/upper level ridge sits over much of the western CONUS including Nevada and California. High temps this afternoon will be a little warmer than yesterday as we continue a gradual warming trend. Light downslope flow and low moisture content in the atmosphere will allow for mild temperatures through the remainder of the weekend and into the beginning of the work week, with highs in the 60s expected across much of the CWA on Sunday and only slightly cooler highs on Monday.
Current thinking still paints a band of 1 to maybe 2 inches near and east of the Mississippi River where we should hang onto a sub-freezing column for much of the event, but farther west there are questions about saturation initially as well as a pretty good signal we may deal with some sleet or even brief freezing rain pending just how robust the warm nose ends up being.
Currently watching a cold front slide through the area this morning.
A dry cold front passes through the region this afternoon and into the early evening hours bringing some clouds to parts of the region. Temperatures do not really cool off that much behind the front so tonight's lows should be warmer than what we have been experiencing, and likely drop down into the upper 20s. Another surge of warmer air will arrive on Monday as warm air advection ramps up again and temperatures will soar even higher than what we will see today. The cold front will pass through Monday afternoon with little fanfare but will bring an end to that warmer weather as gusty northwest winds usher in colder air during the evening hours. The clouds will help keep temperatures a few degrees either side of freezing Monday night.
In the low levels, early- morning surface observations indicate a notably warmer air mass (owing to downslope-induced compressional warming) to our immediate west which will overspread the region today. These systems will be attended by a cold front which should move through the area Monday morning. Given these winds and the indication that the post-frontal air mass will not be significantly cooler (i. Monday's highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s), there could be some fire weather concerns late Monday morning into afternoon again over our western counties.
Most locations are in the low to mid 30s but will still see some places drop into the 20s this morning. With clear skies, high temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s this afternoon.
Dry northwest flow aloft is in place across the forecast area this afternoon in the wake of the upper level trough moving into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions and southeastern states. The combination of clear skies, light winds, sub-freezing temperatures and residual snow pack will likely result in more areas of black ice in our northwestern zones tonight, and have issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting this potential. Patchy freezing fog may also develop in these areas and have added mention to the forecast. We went slightly below guidance across interior southeast MS and southwest AL where areas of snow cover are still in place, but kept overnight lows in the lower 20s (just above Hard Freeze Warning Criteria). Sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sunday, but readings will still average about 10-12 degrees below normal for early December.
315 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 314 AM CST Low pressure over Minnesota will weaken as it moves across the western Great Lakes today. Winds shift briefly to northwest behind a weak cold front associated with the weakening low. A high pressure ridge then spreads over the region tonight, and winds back to southwest. Low temperatures will be in the low 20s. The upper level pattern will continue to trend toward high amplitude and slow progression with upper ridging building over the wrn 1/3 of the CONUS and broad troughing over the ern 2/3 CONUS.
/Today through Tonight/ The main forecast concern today was focused on temperatures and how warm they reach before the cold front located in northern Minnesota drags south across Iowa later today. Warm front looks to surge eastward this morning from eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and provide some decent downslope effect over the forecast area. For maximum temperatures today, leaned slightly warmer than previous forecast, especially across the southwest half of the CWA. Not a significant amount of cold air behind the cold front expected to push through from 15z to 20z from north to south today.
/27/ Prior discussion below: At mid afternoon an upper trough axis extended from the Great Lakes to just east of the Lower Mississippi Valley. A dry cold front was approaching the Forecast area from the north.
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Ample sunshine was competing with 850mb cold air advection and leading to afternoon temps in the low 40s across the west to the upper 30s in the east, closer to the upper level low. Sunday will be warmer as 850mb temps increase over today's readings. Generally looking at highs in the low to mid 50s. Southwest winds become stronger Monday out ahead of a approaching cold front an upper level wave.
1040 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Aviation Section Updated No change from previous forecast this evening with strong surface to upper level ridge centered over the interior western US maintaining dry and stable conditions with mainly clear skies. Meanwhile, breezy W/SW winds along the east slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains will maintain relatively mild temperatures overnight, in some cases warmer than average expected afternoon temperatures this time of year. Meanwhile, the valleys of Southwest Montana will be strongly influenced by temperature inversions for cold overnight temperatures with areas of freezing fog.
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Digging upper trough and cold front push east overnight.
High pressure will briefly build in to begin the day on Monday. Next in the series of short waves moving through the mean trough will pass across the region early in the period.
Northwest flow remained over the central plains between ridging to the west and troughing over the eastern U. Highs today are expected to be warmer with most areas seeing highs around 60 given good insolation and some warm air advection from the west. So temps are forecast to fall into the 20s along the KS river valley while locations up on hills are likely to see lows hold in the lower 30s. The low level jet is forecasted to reach upwards of 50 kt as the wave passes to the north. This deep mixing will be supported by a cold frontal passage that causes the low levels to become unidirectional and abnormally warm temperatures prior to the cold air advection.
A strong upper ridge anchored over the western states into western Canada while a deep upper low persists near Hudson Bay and deep trough extends southward into the Appalachians and Deep South. Westerly winds behind the trough were holding temperatures in the 30s across the area early this morning. A low pressure system at the surface will move south with the disturbance while an associated cold front will drop south across the central High Plains Monday morning.
The drier surface air, clear skies, and light winds overnight should again set the stage for an efficient radiational cooling set up and allow temperatures to reach near freezing or below in the colder locations on the Plateau and Hill Country, with slightly higher temperatures off the Plateau. Again in the afternoon hours, RH values will fall into the low 20 percent and even upper teens possibly which may warrant a more isolated but still elevated fire weather concern.
We expect temperatures to be above normal every day through at least the next 7 days especially the high temperatures, which could be a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal on several days. We will see glancing shots of cooler air with quick moderation as most of the really cold air slides east of our area.
High pressure was anchored over northern California with a ridge extending north into western Alaska. Low pressure was situated over Hudson Bay with a trough extending south into the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface: Low pressure was present over northern Minnesota with a warm front extending sse into sern Nebraska. Highs will reach the lower 60s this afternoon with some mid 50s in the northeast. A clipper system will dive south into Minnesota tonight, forcing a cold front through the forecast area. Amplified upper ridging will remain over the western U.
A cold front will pass through the region Monday, and by the afternoon the winds will be from the north around 20 mph. A cold front will pass through the region on Monday afternoon with wind speeds from the north at 20 mph and gusts closer to 30 mph.
257 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017 Upper ridging covers the western CONUS, while a trough persists over the east. Strong upper ridging will result in another warm and dry day today, with highs in the 50s to mid 60s.
225 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017 Pattern remains stagnant through the short term period with the moisture blocking Rex over the Western States.
215 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 High pressure will build south of the region today and tonight.
316 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 A cold pattern will continue through this work week with a strong ridge out west and a deep trough over the eastern states.
/issued 907 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/ As of 9 PM, temperatures range from the low 40s south of the I-10 corridor to the lower to middle across interior SE Texas and SW Louisiana. With high pressure in place across the northern gulf, another night of clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to drop below freezing north of the I-10 corridor although without the cold air advection, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than we saw this morning.
An upper level trough in the westerly flow aloft will track across the Northern Rockies Tuesday. Westerly flow around the base of the trough will bring mild temperatures and also breezy conditions to northern Colorado. A cold front will push into northern Colorado late Tuesday afternoon.
It is occurring on the northwest fringes of the low clouds. A weak cold front will push through Wed, but the drier air will be short-lived. GFS moves this feature through faster than the ECMWF and thus pushes the cold front through quicker. Whichever model verifies, confidence is high that by Fri night, the front will be through and drier cooler air will be spilling south. Once the low level stratus moves into the region during the overnight hours, the fog issues will abate and low MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to dominate.
1031 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Rockies. Upper ridge will peak over the Northern Plains on Monday, with many areas reaching into the lower 60s. A weak upper wave will flatten the ridge on Tuesday, pushing a cool front through the Northern Plains. Breezy/windy W/NW winds expected with slightly cooler temps.