Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will be the dominate weather feature over the southwest for the week bringing light winds and well above normal temperatures. Temperatures will begin to climb today into the rest of the week as a ridge of high pressure brings an increase in heights across the southwest. Be sure to hydrate and save strenuous activity for the cooler portions of the day in the morning and late evening. Warm and dry conditions are anticipated today and Tuesday, as another unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure builds over the district.
533 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A cold front will trigger scattered showers across central Illinois today. Once the front passes, strong northwesterly winds gusting 30 to 40mph will bring cooler conditions into the area. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Minnesota southward to Texas. High pressure will build into the region tonight, bringing clear skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 40s.
Westerly winds have developed on the edges of high pressure over Colorado. Winds will be breezy in that trough overnight across the east. High pressure briefly builds in on Tuesday. Less mixing will lead to cooler, but seasonable highs in the 60s.
Even with the lower forecasted highs today, RH values are expected to drop into the lower teens to near 20 percent across the area today, with dry air continuing to advect in. This should translate to wind gusts of up to 30-35mph and with the low RH values expected, see no reason to make any changes to the ongoing Red Flag Warning. A weak cold front will drop in from South Dakota overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, and will lead to a disparity in high temperatures. Highs are expected to top out only in the upper 60s in northern Nebraska to the lower 70s in southwest Nebraska.
/Today through Monday Night/ Highlights: > Mainly dry > Turning much colder late week Cold front is currently east of I-35 with a band of showers and a few storms just ahead moving into E Iowa. Satellite imagery shows a vigorous upper level trough sweeping across the High Plains, with the attendant forcing aiding band of mainly light rain/showers from far E Nebraska into W Minnesota. Will continue to hang onto a shower chance mainly until mid morning before the trough swings through. Rapid clearing should then ensue, with WNW winds remaining breezy at 15-25+ mph ushering in cooler and more seasonable temperatures today. Tonight, winds will abate this evening as high pressure traverses the region. Tuesday will bring another cold frontal passage during the day.
A weak front will affect the plains in the morning, however, by aftn a sfc lee trough will redevelop along the I-25 Corridor. Winds will remain gusty over the higher terrain but speeds will stay below high wind criteria. At the sfc, a lee trough will intensify along the I-25 Corridor. Component along winds increase to 55-60 kts overnight so there is certainly the potential for high wind criteria over the higher terrain and near the base of the Foothills. Meanwhile, a cold front will move into nern CO either late in the aftn or by early Wed evening. By Wed night into Thu, much cooler air will affect the area behind the cold front.
Upper level trough axis was into central Kansas at 08Z with residual moisture exiting to the northeast. The cold front was through all but the southeast corner of Kansas. Weak surface ridging crossing east across the state today brings west winds back to eastern Kansas and a decent afternoon WAA pattern. WAA weakens a bit overnight but a modest low-level jet helps keep temps from falling past the mid 40s A weak upper wave passing across the northern Plains brings a modest front/wind shift south into the area Tuesday though the overnight WAA brings a slightly warmer day.
Current satellite imagery is depicting the Northern Rockies sandwiched between a large, closed system of low pressure spinning over Saskatchewan and a broad, closed high pressure system off the coast of California. Snow levels will get down to about 6000 feet in northwest Montana as some of the higher peaks, especially in the Mission Mountains, see modest snow accumulations.
VFR will prevail through a vast majority of the TAF period courtesy of high pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere. /issued 311 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A 500 mb longwave trough rapidly transitioning through the central United States will drag a weak cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight, with mid-level ridging reasserting itself over the BRO CWFA in the wake of the front.
612 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front moving across the area this morning will continue to move quickly south and east of the area with gusty north winds in its wake. Much cooler temperatures are also expected today, with highs some 15 to as much as 25 degrees cooler than yesterdays.
A cold front will move across the region on Monday with a winds shift to the NW between 16-20z. Monday through Tuesday Night Currently quiet conditions are ongoing across the region in advance of an approaching cold front situated over the Mid-MS valley. This cold front will move across the forecast area with little more than a wind shift for most locations around mid-day Monday. After 14z, increasing winds ahead of the cold front should mix any remaining fog out and visibilities should improve. High pressure will settle into the region bringing quiet and sunny conditions beneath large scale subsidence aloft through the short term.
A strong cold front will provide a sharp wind shift along with increased surface winds/wind shear. Today Through Tuesday Night A cold front was pushing into northwest Arkansas early this morning. High pressure will begin building into the region tonight, and winds will diminish.
Otherwise, clouds are expected to greatly diminish by afternoon with a very warm day in the mid 70s to low 80s, plus scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along an approaching cold front currently southeast of Kansas City. Otw, cloudiness to persist into Monday as a cold front approaches.
554 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Light rain will clear out from west to east this morning, as skies clear out and drier air filters moves in to the region behind an exiting cold front. Another mild and breezy day is expected Tuesday with temperatures again warming into the low to mid 60s.
Better moisture also moving into the region for showers with the low pressure system, with some already showing up in the southwest zones. Upper pattern continues to amplify in the the end of the week, with a trof digging over the Great Lakes. A low pressure system will move across the region today bringing scattered rain showers along with a wind shift to the northwest in the afternoon. Some clearing is expected tonight before the next low pressure system bring more clouds and showers for Tuesday.
Today Through Tuesday Night A cold front was pushing into northwest Arkansas early this morning. High pressure will begin building into the region tonight, and winds will diminish.
Drizzle and fog are dissipating, and still expect the low clouds to break up as the day progresses allowing for some afternoon sun, so overall forecast for the remainder of today still looks reasonable. Sun should shine eventually this afternoon, and a cold front tonight will bring a chance of rain near the KTRI airport, but certainty and chances are too low to mention as a FM group in this TAF. There are also some low clouds in the area above the fog, and forecast soundings indicate we may not really get much mixing in the lower levels this morning. Most of the energy and moisture associated with this front/trough will be further to our north, so the rainfall and QPF forecasts are pretty limited during FROPA, with the best chances being in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
426 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Main upper trough axis has pushed east of the area, leaving behind clear skies and cooler temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
Drier air is filling in behind the cold front that passed through the area yesterday evening, and this is allowing skies to clear relatively quickly. Later this morning, we will see winds transition to more westerly and southwesterly as the upper trough continues eastward. Despite the cooler airmass, the relatively dry air and westerly wind component should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s.
A large lobe of high PV air associated with the Arctic tropopause and also with a large associated 500 mb trough is forecast to settle in over the eastern US. By Tuesday night, a cold front should be mostly through the CWA bringing a welcome temporary airmass change with less moisture and cooler overnight temperatures.
/issued 247 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020/ An upper trough has crossed onto the Central Plains early this morning and will quickly push to the Great Lakes region later today.
Downslope flow will help warm the airmass with most locations across northeast Colorado climbing into the lower 70s. A weak front will affect the plains in the morning, however, by aftn a sfc lee trough will redevelop along the I-25 Corridor. Winds will remain gusty over the higher terrain but speeds will stay below high wind criteria. At the sfc, a lee trough will intensify along the I-25 Corridor. Component along winds increase to 55-60 kts overnight so there is certainly the potential for high wind criteria over the higher terrain and near the base of the Foothills. Meanwhile, a cold front will move into nern CO either late in the aftn or by early Wed evening. By Wed night into Thu, much cooler air will affect the area behind the cold front.
223 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020 WV imagery this aftn shows an upper-level trof axis to the east of the Dakotas over the Upper Midwest. Sfc trof/cool front crosses the area this evening into the overnight. High pressure slides sewd quickly late overnight, allowing return flow to commence across wrn portions of the area by midday tomorrow. Another near-normal day of temps tomorrow, with slightly warmer temps across our west compared to the east owing to return flow.
118 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A line of showers will move through the region tonight into early Tuesday morning along a fast moving cold front. Dry and seasonable weather is then expected until a late week strong cold front brings precipitation and notably cooler air. The exception may be occasional very light rain/drizzle along the eastward facing slopes of the eastern ridges given upslope flow and lingering tropical moisture. A line of showers will rapidly cross the region late tonight through early Tuesday morning ahead of a passing sfc cold front and upper trough. Cooler air filtering behind the front will drop area temperature closer to seasonal norms.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1022 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A quick update with skies showing some slight clearing over the south before the prefrontal trough arrives and brings in a band or bands of clouds late this morning/afternoon. However, a weak cold front will be moving down from the northeast through the day today bringing a relief from the high dew points and usher in slightly cooler temperatures.
1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a sharp trough over the northern and central Plains early this morning. At the surface, a cold front extends from central Iowa into eastern Kansas. The latest runs of the HREF brings the upper trough across the Mississippi River Valley at midday and into the Great Lakes this evening. Then mainly dry weather is expected from tonight through Tuesday as subsidence sets in behind the trough at the same time there will be a deep, dry layer through the atmosphere behind the front.
CAA and high pressure will continue to affect the area. Quiet short term as high pressure builds into the area. Discussion: High pressure will continue to build into the area this afternoon and evening as cold H85 advection continues as well.
101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Drier air is filling in behind the cold front that passed through the area yesterday evening, and this is allowing skies to clear relatively quickly. Later this morning, we will see winds transition to more westerly and southwesterly as the upper trough continues eastward. Despite the cooler airmass, the relatively dry air and westerly wind component should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s.
Ridgetop winds along the Cascades have been very strong with gusts 50-70 mph, and Lionshead Peak near Warm Spring had one observation at 93 mph! The mountain waves have been confined to the ridges and have not propagated to the lee side of the Cascades. It's windy along the eastern valleys but not near as strong as the exposed ridges. Despite the gusty winds, it will be a nice day to be outdoors as it will be warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 60s to mid 70s. A cold front, accompanied by strong winds aloft, will quickly migrate east of the Cascades on Tuesday.
Ahead of the cold front tonight we'll have plenty of lower level moisture to work with so fog is a possibility overnight and have added mention of that to the forecast. Expect temperatures to be warmer tomorrow as drier air is expected to progressively fill into the region over the course of the day.
Cooler temperatures follow the front for the second half of the week and the weather will remain unsettled with multiple chances for showers in the coming week. Deep layer ridge which brought us nice sunny and dry weather over the holiday weekend pushes eastward tonight, allowing for widespread rain to move into the region. Low pressure system off the coast of New England will phase with very slow moving, nearly stationary surface front from the Great lakes moving eastward.
Drizzle and fog are dissipating, and still expect the low clouds to break up as the day progresses allowing for some afternoon sun, so overall forecast for the remainder of today still looks reasonable. A band of scattered showers will move through tonight as a cold front moves through. There are also some low clouds in the area above the fog, and forecast soundings indicate we may not really get much mixing in the lower levels this morning. Most of the energy and moisture associated with this front/trough will be further to our north, so the rainfall and QPF forecasts are pretty limited during FROPA, with the best chances being in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
245 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 At 17Z, mesoanalysis shows the cold front in the southern reaches of the Big Bend Area, moving at a pretty good clip, having fropa'd KMAF just after 09Z. Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper trough associated w/this front moving through the MS Valley, with a ridge over SoCal/Baja on the west coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. This cold front's effects will be brief, as sfc flow quickly veers back to return flow overnight, and thicknesses increase over the next couple of days.
High pressure will then move into the southeastern United States. The latest RAP MSLP analysis shows the leftover circulation of Tropical Cyclone Delta across eastern North Carolina. Plenty of low clouds remain behind the low, especially considering there has been no change in air mass. As mentioned earlier, with no change in air mass behind the low, expect low clouds to redevelop areawide during the evening hours, although there may not be as much fog as there was last night. The boundary will be followed by high pressure. With a return to sunshine, high temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday's values in the southeast where they are receiving partial sunshine, to 5 degrees warmer in the Triad where clouds suppressed temperatures today.
A light west to southwest wind will persist through this evening ahead of cold front approaching from the northwest. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast. VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light west to southwest winds through this evening becoming north after midnight in the wake of a cold front.
One trough moved out this morning, then a high pressure ridge has been sliding across MN/WI this afternoon and evening, and another low and front will trek through tomorrow morning. Another ridge arrives Tuesday afternoon followed by another developing low to our west Tuesday evening.
The upper-level pattern is defined by a ridge centered over the eastern Pacific strengthening toward the east and over Arizona. This feature will hold a cut-off low to our southwest over Baja California, which eventually meanders toward the west.
Otherwise, clouds are expected to greatly diminish by afternoon with a very warm day in the mid 70s to low 80s, plus scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along an approaching cold front currently southeast of Kansas City. A cold front will move through the terminals this afternoon and evening bringing a small window of scattered showers.
A weak cold front is currently making its way southward approaching South Texas, and a pre-frontal trough is shifting the winds around to the northeast and east this afternoon.
A quiet pattern will continue for the next several days with ridging along or just off the coast.
By 21Z, MVFR CIGS associated with a cold front look to move into KAEX. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX/ A quick update with skies showing some slight clearing over the south before the prefrontal trough arrives and brings in a band or bands of clouds late this morning/afternoon. However, a weak cold front will be moving down from the northeast through the day today bringing a relief from the high dew points and usher in slightly cooler temperatures.
Quiet weather prevails through much of the day ahead of our next cold front.
957 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Temperatures have risen above freezing in response to sunny skies this morning. Another clear overnight is expected however with warmer air aloft in place. overnight lows will run around 5 degrees warmer on Tuesday morning. The synoptic weather pattern will be characterized by a broad longwave trough over the north-central USA, and a developing ridge along the Pacific Coast.
1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A 60 mile wide band of MVFR cigs will continue to spread ESE across Lower E TX/N LA/SW AR, along and just ahead of a cold front extending from a JSO, to just W of SHV, to just E of TXK, to LIT line as of 18Z. /This Afternoon/ The morning sfc analysis indicates a cold front quickly dropping SE across NE TX/SW AR, reinforced by 3. In fact, the visible satellite imagery indicates a gravity wave quickly progressing SE into SE TX/Cntrl LA, which has scoured out the low cigs over these areas.
1258 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Light rain will clear out from west to east this morning, as skies clear out and drier air filters into the region behind an exiting cold front. Another mild and breezy day is expected Tuesday with temperatures again warming into the low to mid 60s.
Expect a very tight diurnal spread overnight with temps nearly steady in the low-mid 50s. Latest hires model data shows sfc cold front sweeping into the western Alleghenies 09-12Z accompanied by line of rain showers. The cold front and associated passing light rain showers should fade with south/eastern extent Tuesday morning, as winds shift to a westerly/downslope component. Max temps will rebound to near average levels generally in the 60-70F range with lows in the low-mid 40s.
1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Strong pressure rises behind an advancing cold front across Kansas is resulting in strong northwest winds in its wake. Otherwise, gusts are not expected this high further east and should remain below advisory criteria. Look for highs this afternoon just High pressure will build from Oklahoma into Missouri tonight and with the cooler and drier air in place will see lows in the mid to upper 40s under clear skies.
248 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A cold front moved through the area yesterday bringing cooler, drier air to the region. A high pressure system traveling eastward along the TX and OK border redirects winds to be from the southwest pushing dry desert air from the SW US.
224 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Surface observations and radar this afternoon clearly define the cold front that will sweep across the area later today, with the boundary currently about to cross the Mississippi River into western Kentucky. Much cooler and drier air will filter into Middle Tennessee behind the front with temps dropping into the 40s overnight, and struggling to get out of the 60s on Tuesday.
/This Afternoon/ The morning sfc analysis indicates a cold front quickly dropping SE across NE TX/SW AR, reinforced by 3. In fact, the visible satellite imagery indicates a gravity wave quickly progressing SE into SE TX/Cntrl LA, which has scoured out the low cigs over these areas. The cold front as of 11z was just beginning to enter our airspace from the northwest and its this feature that should help to clear out the lower ceilings later this morning and throughout the day.
Cooler. Well another welcome cold front moved across West Central Texas earlier today. This front brought gusty winds, from the northeast, along with cooler temperatures. At of this writing, temperatures, across West Central Texas, are around 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
A couple short wave troughs from the northwest will affect the region through Tuesday night. Otherwise, Tuesday should be a mostly sunny and breezy day with cooler temperatures. The period starts out with the region seeing around average temperatures before low pressure and a strong associated cold front bowl through the region leaving well below average temperatures in their wake.
1136 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Light northwest breezes are in the process of developing over the Keys, in response to the anticyclonic flow around a bubble of high pressure that formed overnight in the north-central Gulf. This boundary between air masses is indeed a weak early season cold front. This weak cold front will pass the Keys late tonight and will be followed by the drier air. The other focus for convective development will be from cloud line development over the Lower Keys. So that weak cold front will cross the Keys late tonight and will be followed by moderate northerly breezes over the Gulf waters. Widely scattered showers will form along the line of speed convergence accompanying the front, pushing a few showers across the Lower and Middle Keys during the late evening and overnight hours.
An associated cold front extended southwestward into central Florida, and is located just north of Lake Okeechobee per the 12. South Florida will be sitting under the eastern tip of a 500mb ridge for the middle of the week. At the surface, high pressure is moving across the southeast US, north of the Florida peninsula.
Monday through Tuesday Night Currently quiet conditions are ongoing across the region in advance of an approaching cold front situated over the Mid-MS valley. This cold front will move across the forecast area with little more than a wind shift for most locations around mid-day Monday. After 14z, increasing winds ahead of the cold front should mix any remaining fog out and visibilities should improve. High pressure will settle into the region bringing quiet and sunny conditions beneath large scale subsidence aloft through the short term.
146 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2020 High pressure continues to build in over the area, which will lead to a warming and drying trend for the week.
240 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 The main feature of interest through the short-term forecast period will be an incoming cold front tonight into Tuesday.
/issued 801 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020/ Latest RAP model has weak mid level ridging building over the Gulf of Mexico as a short wave trough slides across northern FL to the Atlantic today. Not much cooler air works in. High pressure dominates with west and northwest winds mostly below 15 knots for the next couple of days.
250 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Showers and thunderstorms this evening - Cooler after midweek -- Showers and thunderstorms this evening -- Sfc analysis shows a cold front near the western shore of Lake Michigan moving east.