Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
451 PM MST Tue Mar 8 2022 Northwest flow aloft will back to the southwest by Wednesday morning as a strengthening short wave trough drops south across the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. Latest models show the cold front pushing through the Denver area well after midnight and around 3-4am. Snowfall amounts at the lower end of criteria, but with the potential for heavier snow bands and this occurring during the evening commute decided to issue.
Current surface map places cold front across central Wyoming into southern/central Nebraska. Upper trof combined with diurnal instability is bringing snow shower activity across much of the forecast area.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE CASPER AREA BY 9AM THIS MORNING AND HAS ALSO PASSED THROUGH THE WIND RIVER BASIN.
It should be noted that this cold air advection still has the potential to bring additional (a bit less likely) isolated snow showers through Wednesday afternoon, while the main upper low trough still dominates over our region.
Rain is quickly spreading into the area as a mid level trough pushes through the southern plains with lift and moisture increasing across the Mid-South.
529 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 H5 analysis this morning had a broad trough of low pressure extending from central Canada, south southwest into northern Mexico. West of this trough, a high amplitude ridge extended from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. South southwest of this feature, a cold front extended from the low into northwestern Iowa, then southwest into central and far southwestern Nebraska.
537 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 Light precipitation has continued to persist along a cold front as it moves east across MN early this afternoon. Most of the precip is snow, though a couple of stations (specifically, LJF) has reported light rain with sub-freezing temperatures at the surface. Lows tonight will be in the lower teens in southern MN to western WI while decreasing into the lower single digits in western MN. But, the likelihood of precip decreases greatly to the south (our CWA) farther away from the trough. Highs are forecast in the lower teens to lower 20s (coldest in western MN). Heading into Wednesday night, a developing low pressure system in the Central Plains will keep clouds across southern MN.
624 PM EST Tue Mar 8 2022 Aviation - Small chance of snow showers on Wednesday - A cold front will sweep east through the area on Wednesday.
There could even be a touch of freezing drizzle with the front, as moisture struggles to saturate to -10c and activate ice nuclei. Pattern/Synopsis: A wave sinking into Minnesota is supporting a weak (~1000mb) clipper system that will drag a cold front towards our area very late tonight. Forecast/Details: The clipper treks right along across Ontario tonight, dragging its associated cold front into the western portions of the CWA by daybreak. North of the bridge has better moisture between 925-800mb, thus have better chances there. A moisture starved surface cold front will move across northern Michigan through the day Wednesday.
714 PM EST Tue Mar 8 2022 Another crossing low pressure trough will generate rain and snow for the Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight and Wednesday.
A low pressure system will move south of the CWA tonight, increasing our cloud cover tonight into early Wednesday morning. Low temperatures early Wednesday morning will be near seasonal in the mid to upper 20s, with sites near Lake Michigan a few degrees warmer. Cloud cover will decrease as the low to the south moves away. Southwesterly winds will turn northwesterly Wednesday morning as a weak, dry cold front moves through, traversing the CWA from the northwest early Wednesday morning and exiting to the southeast by late morning.
605 PM EST Tue Mar 8 2022 Early March diurnal mixing has been gradually eroding the low end VFR strato cu field across portions of Se Mi this afternoon, a trend that is expected to persist into the evening. Based on the low level flow and model RH projections, these clouds may affect the Detroit terminals off an on tonight. Otherwise, broad high pressure across the Ohio Valley will maintain light winds through the night. High pressure sprawled across the Ohio valley drifts into New England while low pressure moves into northern Ontario tonight. This places SE MI between systems until a dry cold front slides through the region Wednesday afternoon.
Ample sunshine and southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front have helped recover our temperatures quite impressively today. Overnight lows were in the single digits over portions of eastern Iowa, and mid teens in Illinois, and as of 2 PM, as snow cover melts away, temperatures range from the lower 30s north to around 40 in snow free areas. The cold front at 2 PM is located from near Sioux City Iowa to Minneapolis Minnesota.
218 PM MST Tue Mar 8 2022 Northwest flow aloft will back to the southwest by Wednesday morning as a strengthening short wave trough drops south across the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. Latest models show the cold front pushing through the Denver area well after midnight and around 3-4am. Snowfall amounts at the lower end of criteria, but with the potential for heavier snow bands and this occurring during the evening commute decided to issue.
After a cold front had moved through this morning, gusty northwest winds and snow showers were impacting North Dakota, reducing visibility under isolated to scattered showers across the state and with blowing snow over areas of the north.
Fortunately, this should result in no hazard concerns given the surface temperatures well above freezing. Rain is quickly spreading into the area as a mid level trough pushes through the southern plains with lift and moisture increasing across the Mid-South.
Mild with temps in the low 70s. (Previous Discussion) Ridge axis remains south of the area into tomorrow, with an elevated S/SW flow expected.
208 PM MST Tue Mar 8 2022 Current surface map places cold front across central Wyoming into southern/central Nebraska. Upper trof combined with diurnal instability is bringing snow shower activity across much of the forecast area.
Winds will shift to the north to northeast overnight as Canadian cold front drops south.
242 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 Cyclonic flow will continue aloft today with a deep upper level low near the Hudson Bay. CAMs are consistently pinpointing areas south and west of the Missouri River as having the highest coverage of snow showers.
After that low ceilings will stick around through most of the day, and we'll start seeing breaks in the low ceilings closer to 00-06z. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 41 63 44 68 / 30 10 10 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 39 61 43 68 / 50 10 10 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 55 39 60 42 66 / 40 10 10 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 35 60 38 66 / 80 10 10 0 40.
1107 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 Light precipitation has continued to persist along a cold front as it moves east across MN early this afternoon. Most of the precip is snow, though a couple of stations (specifically, LJF) has reported light rain with sub-freezing temperatures at the surface. Lows tonight will be in the lower teens in southern MN to western WI while decreasing into the lower single digits in western MN. But, the likelihood of precip decreases greatly to the south (our CWA) farther away from the trough. Highs are forecast in the lower teens to lower 20s (coldest in western MN). Heading into Wednesday night, a developing low pressure system in the Central Plains will keep clouds across southern MN.
With saturation implied by low pressure condensation deficits, there is a brief window of precipitation. As of this afternoon, the high is centered directly over central Indiana and will continue to progress ENE, leading to dry weather. This low will also bring a chance of precipitation in the far southern portion of the forecast area for the early Wednesday morning hours. The high in place should help to keep most precip to the south of the area, but depending on how the low tracks, may not keep out all the precip. Tonight's low will be in the low to mid 30s followed by highs tomorrow near 50. Modest warm advection and absence of ridging will keep us from warming substantially prior to the arrival of the next trough.
However, this wave will be far enough removed from the 850 MB Theta-e Ridge/moisture axis headed to the East Coast, and with the dry airmass in place, precipitation is not expected (with perhaps a little high based reflectivity/virga showing up). A weak cold front will then swing through behind the wave this afternoon. However, increasing mixing depths in the afternoon and March sun will mask the low level cold advection initially, and maxes solidly into the 40s looks good based on 925 MB temps rising to around 1 C.
907 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 (Issued 906 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022) Becoming increasingly concerned about upstream uptick in snow shower activity in vicinity of cold front draped across western Wisconsin into far southeast Minnesota. Kavinsky (Issued 205 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Surface/850 cold front slides through later tonight into Wednesday morning.
1146 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 Summary: colder conditions are expected for Wednesday through the end of the week as a cold front moves through the Northland today.
1254 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 Aviation - Small chance of snow showers on Wednesday - A cold front will sweep east through the area on Wednesday.
1257 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 Brief high pressure across the region will be replaced by an advancing low pressure system to our south.
Showers will persist overnight and into Wednesday morning as an upper trough arrives from the north. Snow levels remain above valley floors this evening (3500-4500 feet), but will lower to valley floors late tonight through early Wednesday morning as a cold front crosses the region from the north. The snowfall will become focused over the higher elevations south of the Snake Plain late tonight through Wednesday where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
1033 PM EST Tue Mar 8 2022 Brief high pressure across the region will be replaced by an advancing low pressure system to our south.
This will likely lead to at least elevated fire weather danger as conditions will be dry with dewpoints in the low to mid teens across our northwestern zones, but currently temps look to remain cool enough to prevent the need for a Red Flag Warning. The cold front is currently progged to move into the southern Texas Panhandle shortly after midnight and reaching our southern zones close to sunrise. Given the density of the airmass associated with the cold front (temps in the single digits to below zero in the source region) it is possible for the front to push through a few hours ahead of the forecast.
A weakening cold front will advance across Se Mi Wed afternoon. High pressure sprawled across the Ohio valley drifts into New England while low pressure moves into northern Ontario tonight. This places SE MI between systems until a dry cold front slides through the region Wednesday afternoon.
Expect slightly warmer temperatures, along with gusty west through southwest winds on Wednesday.
1049 PM EST Tue Mar 8 2022 The positively tilted long wave trough over the western CONUS continues to assault the mean layer ridge parked to its southeast. The deep subsidence on the ridge's eastern flank is farther east than this morning, now near the Windward Passage. The 00Z RAOBs across Florida registered falling heights at most levels, highlighting the ridge's retreat into the western North Atlantic.
1248 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 Another crossing low pressure trough will generate rain and snow for the Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight and Wednesday.
High pressure building in will bring drier weather and warming temps late week into the weekend. Snow showers across the north will continue and expand into central NV later this morning as the broad cold upper level trough continues to drop south. The trough axis is expected to drag south across the region overnight into tomorrow morning, with snow showers diminishing north to south behind its passage. Winds will become quite breezy to windy from the west to northwest this afternoon, then turning more northerly tonight as the trough/front drop through and the north to south surface gradient tightens. Cooler today, especially across the north, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s in northern Elko county to upper 40s to low 50s in northern Nye county.
Winds at the surface will be from the SW ahead of the cold front that approaches by the evening hours on Thursday.
303 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 A cold front moves into the area today, turning winds to the northwest.
Latest analysis shows an upper trough extending from Hudson Bay into Montana with a weak vort max band currently passing southward across southwestern South Dakota. Diurnally driven scattered snow showers with lift enhanced by the approaching upper trough will develop this afternoon.
Clouds with the aforementioned system will diminish today, but as a weak cold front moves this afternoon, some increase in clouds will occur again.
The passage of a weak cold front brings a wind shift to west-southwest and some reduction in cloud bases for the afternoon period. However, this wave will be far enough removed from the 850 MB Theta-e Ridge/moisture axis headed to the East Coast, and with the dry airmass in place, precipitation is not expected (with perhaps a little high based reflectivity/virga showing up). A weak cold front will then swing through behind the wave this afternoon. However, increasing mixing depths in the afternoon and March sun will mask the low level cold advection initially, and maxes solidly into the 40s looks good based on 925 MB temps rising to around 1 C.
Highs will reach the lower 50s where clouds develop some breaks, but locations that stay overcast will be limited to the upper 40s at best.
Latest guidance shows the low levels staying much drier across the Missouri River then earlier runs. While it is unlikely, locations south of the Highway 20 corridor could possibly squeak out a few tenths of an inch if the low levels can saturate to the surface. Otherwise, northwest flow continues into tonight ahead of an incoming cold high pressure system, dropping low temperatures into the single digits to teens. Locations along the Highway 20 corridor may see a few snowflakes or flurries, but no accumulating snow is expected. A strong cold front will push through the forecast area overnight on Thursday, once again dropping low temperatures into the teens and single digits.
542 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 Active weather is expected for the short term as an upper level trough pushes through the region.
Some freezing fog could occur as well, especially over southwest Arkansas, in the vicinity of the Ouachita Mountains. We should see less cloud cover and slightly warmer temperatures today, with highs mostly in the 50s. The high pressure will shift eastward tonight into Thursday. A rather potent upper trough will begin digging down into the Rockies. This will push the Arctic front in the Plains down into the region as low pressure deepens along the boundary.
High pressure moves in this evening diminishing the snow chances. A cold front drops south on Thursday in the NW flow aloft which will allow Thursday Night to be the coldest night of this week.
In addition to the cold, snow showers in the high terrain will linger over the next few days.
412 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 Active weather is expected for the short term as an upper level trough pushes through the region.
Ceilings will lift between 14Z-16Z time frame to mainly VFR and MVFR levels and then prevail to VFR this afternoon before showers and T'storms arrive from the west as a cold front moves into the area with 4 hour long TEMPO convective groups from KSSI starting 18Z, then south to the Duval county terminals at 20Z as well as KGNV, then finally to KSGJ from 23Z to 03Z. The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast and a frontal boundary to the northwest today.
Unseasonably warm and muggy weather continues across all of west central and southwest Florida early this morning as high pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula and into the eastern Gulf remains in control. High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to support south to southwest winds around 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the coastal waters the remainder of today, with best rain chances expected from Tarpon Springs north to the Suwannee River during the afternoon hours, and wind and seas will be higher in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) Clear skies and relatively light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the 20s and lower 30s across the area, with lows still expected to fall into the low to mid 20s, so we'll have a cold start to the day today. However, we will see warmer conditions today and tonight across the entire area. A weak upper trough will move through the southern plains today, inducing pressure falls along the lee slopes of the Rockies, which will increase our winds out of the south and southeast. Could also see a few highs clouds associated with the trough. Lows tonight will range from the low 30s in some of our valley locations to near 40 degrees in higher elevations where winds stay stronger, and the lower atmosphere remains more mixed.
Warmer temperatures and more tranquil conditions are expected by the end of the weekend. Cold front passage will shift the winds northerly across central Nevada overnight with next segment of our wind advisory going into effect at 4 am Thursday for Esmeralda and central Nye County. 15" over the higher plateau's of northern Mohave County could produce around 1" of snow.
508 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 (Today and tonight) Clear skies and relatively light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the 20s and lower 30s across the area, with lows still expected to fall into the low to mid 20s, so we'll have a cold start to the day today. However, we will see warmer conditions today and tonight across the entire area. A weak upper trough will move through the southern plains today, inducing pressure falls along the lee slopes of the Rockies, which will increase our winds out of the south and southeast. Could also see a few highs clouds associated with the trough. Lows tonight will range from the low 30s in some of our valley locations to near 40 degrees in higher elevations where winds stay stronger, and the lower atmosphere remains more mixed.
Weak high pressure continues to ridge across the area with a stalled frontal boundary just to the north of the state.
Skies then clear as winds turn NE to E late tonight and early Thursday morning while this low drops into the Great Basin. This wind switch will advect a critically dry airmass across much of the interior during Thursday as well, with very poor recoveries Thursday night across interior ridges. Latest guidance continues to depict a trough slipping over the ridge this weekend, bringing a good chance for light precip to mostly the NW portion of our CWA, although chance PoPs extend across most of the region. The highest waves will be south of Cape Mendocino, around 8 feet.
Will keep the highlights going in these areas, but will end the rest.
Expect warmer temperatures along with gusty west winds today.
Low level cloud cover will likely persist through Thursday afternoon, in the cold, moist air left behind the departed area of low pressure that brought the precip to the area in the first place. Todays highs should only make it to the upper 40s for most locations, while Thursdays max temperatures should be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than todays. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s. As this drops into the CONUS trough, it will also amplify it. The result still shown by models is a unified, deep upper level trough sweeping eastward across the eastern CONUS early in the weekend.
Still looking pretty bleak for much precipitation, though some light showers will be possible along the crest of the northern Sierra with perhaps an inch or so of snow accumulation over the higher passes. It'll likely be another moderately strong event with gusts around 30-40 mph in the valley, and 30-50 mph in the windier spots over the northern Sierra (locally higher over the exposed higher elevation ridges).
456 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 Rain and snow is expected today with a crossing trough.
Cyclonic flow will continue aloft today with a deep upper level low near the Hudson Bay. CAMs are consistently pinpointing areas south and west of the Missouri River as having the highest coverage of snow showers.
An arctic cold front is moving through the area currently. Above 6000 feet, 3 to 7 inches of snow is possible, with the higher amounts in the Wasatch/Albion mountains.
Winds will remain southerly, and become fairly gusty in western Oklahoma where the surface pressure gradient will tighten due to the approaching cold front and cooler airmass. The cold front will begin entering into northwestern Oklahoma Wednesday evening.
The low- level thermal ridge will be maximized within the lee trof, but temps will be warmer across all areas. Despite being warmer the high temps will again be below normal (3rd day in row) with highs mostly in the M60s, except L70s Pecos/Ft. Gusty sly winds can be expected e of the lee trof, while across the wrn areas the boundary layer wind will be around 20kts and will result in a few hrs of breezy conditions, locally windy GDP Mtns. Challenging part of the fcst will be focused around cold front that will be INVOF nrn CWFA by 12Z-15Z Thu.
521 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 A cold front moves into the area today, turning winds to the northwest.
For Thursday, a low pressure system from the north will bring a chance of showers.
The cool airmass across much of Texas will be replaced by warmer and drier conditions across the region with PWAT's dropping down below 0. Temperatures today will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s with low 70s out west. Tonight will still be cooler with much of South Texas in the 40s.
This will likely lead to at least elevated fire weather danger as conditions will be dry with dewpoints in the low to mid teens across our northwestern zones, but currently temps look to remain cool enough to prevent the need for a Red Flag Warning. The cold front is currently progged to move into the southern Texas Panhandle shortly after midnight and reaching our southern zones close to sunrise. Given the density of the airmass associated with the cold front (temps in the single digits to below zero in the source region) it is possible for the front to push through a few hours ahead of the forecast. A strong cold front with a modified cA airmass trailing behind is forecast to move through the region on Thursday morning as mean troughing across the CONUS amplifies.
Highs today will still be below average, but considerably warmer than yesterday, ranging from upper 50s to low 60s before falling into the middle 30s areawide Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon will be warmer still, with highs reaching seasonable values of upper 60s to lower 70s.
322 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 After a breezy overnight, northwest winds of generally 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 25+ mph will remain possible into the afternoon before high pressure becomes better centered across the Dakotas this evening.
617 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 A cold front moves east across the area tonight, followed by high pressure on Thursday.
After a breezy overnight, northwest winds of generally 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 25+ mph will remain possible into the afternoon before high pressure becomes better centered across the Dakotas this evening.
but seems to be more of an outlier given the front and trough position.