Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING DRIER AND HOT WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AND NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THESE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA A THE TROPICAL GULF LOW APPROACHES THE COASTAL REGIONS OF TEXAS.
BEING DRAWN AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE BY THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. THE MAIN FORECAST DIFFICULTY REMAINS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DISTURBANCE GET PUSHED BY THE RIDGE BEFORE BEING TAKEN OVER BY THE TROUGH.
233 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND NORTH OF PUNTA GORDA AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT A SMALL POCKET OF ENERGY WILL RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TAKING IT DOWN TO THE HIGH RES MODELS.
350 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 H5 FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY TODAY ACROSS SW COLORADO WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TODAY OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH BACK UP TO 0. THE COLD FRONT HANGING JUST NORTH OF THE CO/WY BORDER HAS REMAINED STATIONARY ALL NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE MORESO THAN THE WESTERN SLOPE TODAY. BARELY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS SOLUTIONS THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE LOW VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. ANTICIPATING CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON SO KEPT WITH THE CURRENT THINKING ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
Persistent ridging over the southeast has allowed a steady stream of deep moisture to stream into the area ahead of this front. Additionally, the high precipitable water/tropical airmass will lead to extremely efficient rainfall making storms.
The surface cold front will slide southeastward across the CWA on Monday, fueling convection along and ahead of the boundary.
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALOFT WILL DEVELOP. LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE S VALLEY. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH UP INTO WA.
CLOUDY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE DAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR PRECIPITATION TO END AND TO SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
317 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COOL/DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA.
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2-5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AS MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
614 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
633 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GUN FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. 00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
WHILE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROF/SHEER AXIS SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS TROF/SHEER AXIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS.
A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONG AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS WITH TIME. EXPECTED POSITION/STRENGTH OF ANTI-CYCLONE CORRESPONDS WITH OTHER EVENTS WHICH RESULTED IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S-LOWER 100S. THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS BEST (THOUGH STILL NO MORE THAN 20 PERCENT) ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE MORE REMOVED FROM THE STRONG CAPPING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WHICH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE. HEAT BUILDING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PUSH MOST OF CENTRAL NC AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK AND LIKELY INITIATE A HEAT ADVISORY. STILL EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
322 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE HEAT WILL BE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE HAS NOW TAKEN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
With moist and unstable air in place and weak upper trough overhead, the setup looks more favorable for diurnal development of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly this afternoon and evening. For now, carrying chance PoPs with the higher rain chances across roughly the northern third of our area.
307 AM MST MON JUN 15 2015 THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
A subtle ridge of high pressure will be over the region today causing mainly warm and dry conditions.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE DAKOTAS SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
350 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LAST EVENING CAME THROUGH RATHER WIMPY AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP FOLLOWING LAST EVENINGS SURGES WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SW OF DENVER WITH THE HELP OF A POSSIBLE DENVER CYCLONE SET UP. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR THE CYCLONE COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
1223 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 848 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ UPPER HIGH IS KEEPING PCPN WEST OF THE TN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.
A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WAS CROSSING OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WHERE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE PAC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW TOMORROW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ONE OFFSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING WAS ACROSS GULF COASTAL/SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTH OF FL. SURFACE - A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. WEAK TROUGHING WAS ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL DOMINATE WITH NE AND EAST WINDS. THE FAR SOUTH WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ODDS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
There will be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River overnight. As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough which will help force the stationary front north of the area into southern Iowa. Expect highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PLAINS.
930 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH.
647 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 PERSISTENT DRY INFLOW IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS HAS KEPT RAIN AT BAY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE INFLUENCE FROM BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
NO FORECAST CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. SO LEANED ON THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN HALF AS THE UPPER RIDGE INCHES A BIT FARTHER EAST. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING OUR PEAK HEATING HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING STEERED TO OUR NW WITH AN UPPER TROF EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER OUR BASES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING.
ISLTD SHRA/TSRA AND BKN VFR CIGS ACCOMPANY A WEAK INVERTED TROF CROSSING SRN LA AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INVERTED SFC TROF. PATTERN THEREAFTER MARKED BY A SW TO NE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EJECTING AHEAD OF A DIGGING WRN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. SLOWLY ERODING THE RIDGE ALOFT.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
CLOUDS WILL INCRS TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO THE E AND THE STALLED FRONT GAINS IMPETUS TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT TNGT THRU TUE. A NW-SE ORIENTED UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NNE ACRS THE AREA DURG THE DAY TUE. AND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WMFNT ALONG WITH ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE S.
1132 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.
1107 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 PERSISTENT DRY INFLOW IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS HAS KEPT RAIN AT BAY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE INFLUENCE FROM BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. AND ITS UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. /ISSUED 558 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION OVER THE GREAT LAKES MEAN WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. EVENING UPDATE GENERALLY BLENDED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVED VALUES AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE LOWER TEMPS ALONG AND N OF I-70 WHERE SHOWERS HAD JUST PASSED THROUGH.
/ISSUED 1029 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PLAINS.
KEPT VCSH IN FOR TONIGHT THEN PROB30 OF MVFR +TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING TROUGH TUE. /ISSUED 250 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough which will help force the stationary front north of the area into southern Iowa. Expect highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies.
AS RETURN FLOW IS COMMENCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE MINNESOTA PINES THE FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS GOOD WITH PROLONGED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH RH VALUES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S AND WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL NEED TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT OUTFLOW WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND TRENDED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BY 07-09Z THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO SLOW POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARRIVING AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION STARTING ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
829 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE TELECONNECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVES WILL BE TO CARVE OUT A BROAD SCALE TROF IN THE WEST. AND ALSO TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. WE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. AND UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE EXTENDED WILL START WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST.
1029 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PLAINS.
LATEST MODELS TAKE THE MAIN NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LOW INTO WASHINGTON TUESDAY.
LIGHT SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND BY 12Z AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST DEEPENS A BIT.
/ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AM.
828 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 AVIATION FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT THEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT BREAK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN THE VALLEYS OF SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE.
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A DISTURBANCE OFF THE EAST COAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
932 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING. SLIGHT WARMING WILL OCCUR INLAND TUESDAY AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.
922 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THE MINNESOTA PINES THE FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS GOOD WITH PROLONGED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH RH VALUES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S AND WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL NEED TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
910 PM MST MON MAY 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1138 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
an upper trough over eastern New Mexico will head northeast across west Texas as the dryline heads east toward our area.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS. THE 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS DOWN TOWARD SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THIS PERIOD THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY -- PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE -- AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT SE WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FOG DEVELOPED TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS SUCH AS THE DEKALB, PAINT ROCK, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BETWEEN GUNTERSVILLE AND BRIDGEPORT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RESTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK.
CERTAINLY THE LOW-LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BY STRONGER FORCING SUGGESTED IN THE RAP TO GET RAINFALL TO I-90. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ WEAK INVERTED TROF/ELY WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK WEST. ISLTD SHRA/TSRA AND BKN VFR CIGS ACCOMPANY A WEAK INVERTED TROF CROSSING SRN LA AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INVERTED SFC TROF. PATTERN THEREAFTER MARKED BY A SW TO NE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EJECTING AHEAD OF A DIGGING WRN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. SLOWLY ERODING THE RIDGE ALOFT.
1227 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 AVIATION FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT THEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.