Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
500 mb and 300 mb analysis shows a weak trough of low pressure over E TX so would expect heights to be falling, not increasing. The first will be the high temperatures during the afternoon which may affect aircraft performance -- temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s to around 100 from the Houston Metro sites inland to KCLL and KUTS. As noted via previous forecasts, the main culprit for the higher heat indicies/increased rain coverage appears to be the shifting of the upper low from the NE Gulf coast westward to the NCentral Gulf coast the last day or so. And so the combination of this feature with the upper low over situated over LA (and the proximity of the very high PWs) will likely sup- port at least chance POPS in the grids Sat/Sun.
/issued 412 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016/ Low pressure system over NE Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle will gradually move west along the southern U. Gulf coast throughout the remainder of the week as a strengthening high pressure over the western Atlantic builds west into Florida. As the low pressure over the NE Gulf shifts west, its effects on South Florida will lessen. SHORT-TERM (Tonight/Wednesday): this will be a transition period as the high pressure over the western Atlantic starts to builds in, with flow shifting from S/SW to SE. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Wednesday due to more early/midday sunshine, back to near normal August values.
The first is in regard to the high temperatures reaching into the mid 90s to around 100 during the afternoon -- this may affect aircraft performance from the Houston Metro sites inland to KCLL and KUTS. The criteria for an Excessive Heat Warning is 113 degrees or warmer with no time restraints. 500 mb and 300 mb analysis shows a weak trough of low pressure over E TX so would expect heights to be falling, not increasing.
Radar currently ppine across Middle Tennessee as mid level closed low continues to rotate over the southeastern U.
An area of low pressure will continue to edge slowly northwest out of the Central Gulf Coast toward the Mid Mississippi Valley. The deep southeasterly flow between the low and the sub tropical high just off the Atlantic Coast will be unfavorable for convective development across the Great Valley.
Convective coverage could be a little greater, especially near LFT/ARA as the upper low near the FL panhandle slides slowly west. /issued 340 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016/ Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level trough axis across the southeast U. North to northwest flow aloft is occurring over the forecast area due to flow around the upper level trough to the east. However, with convective temperatures in the low 90s being met or exceeded, late in the day showers and thunderstorms are developing. Consensus of guidance shows upper level subtropical ridge off the southeast U. This will push the upper level trough axis and deep tropical moisture also to the west, with the trough axis moving from the Gulf South to the Lower Mississippi Valley by late Wednesday.
Center of the upper low is moving northeast out of the forecast area this evening. A very weak upper level trough lingers over the Pacific northwest Wednesday.
The weather forecast across central Alabama will continued to be dominated by the affects of a broad area of low pressure along the Gulf coast. The path of the low's drift is forecast to remain largely to central Alabama's west, which would keep us on a presumably wettersector with a deep southerly and southeasterly flow.
For tonight, there remains a chance for some showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances along the Gulf coast. /issued 412 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016/ Low pressure system over NE Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle will gradually move west along the southern U. Gulf coast throughout the remainder of the week as a strengthening high pressure over the western Atlantic builds west into Florida. As the low pressure over the NE Gulf shifts west, its effects on South Florida will lessen. SHORT-TERM (Tonight/Wednesday): this will be a transition period as the high pressure over the western Atlantic starts to builds in, with flow shifting from S/SW to SE. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Wednesday due to more early/midday sunshine, back to near normal August values.
1040 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 An area of low pressure near the FL panhandle will drift westward over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to ridge into the southeastern states. Only isolated showers expected overnight in the moist southerly flow given loss of heating and h5 ridging building into the area from the east. Clouds and boundary layer mixing should hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Surface and upper level ridge off the North Carolina coast extending west into east South Carolina. Upper level low over the gulf coast and Florida retrograding to the west.
Strong high pressure will lead to unseasonably warm weather today and Friday, with increasing southwest winds forecast for Friday ahead of an approaching weather system. A period of active weather is forecast for this weekend as a low pressure system brings cooler temperatures, rain and some high elevation snow to northern Arizona.
526 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a well amplified upstream ridge situated over the western CONUS with hefty moisture spilling over the top through the Pacific northwest. strong high pressure was in control across the central Plains. aforementioned Pacific moisture riding down the front end the ridge will likely keep skies mostly cloudy.
The cold front has exited the CWA and the cold air is being ushered into the region behind some strong northwesterly winds. This winds will stay up during the day, so even with almost pure sunshine by the afternoon and temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, it will feel quite cooler than it actually is. A few cooler spots in the north will tempt the 20 degree mark by sunrise Friday morning.
Wind chills in the low single digits and mid-upper teens. Snow showers with lake enhancement are likely to linger over the Alleghenies into the evening in association with strong CAA, upslope and passage of upper trough axis. Blustery and cold conditions are in store for the region tonight, as pres gradient remains fairly tight between intense low east of New Eng and high pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.
Thus, the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere are quite stable this morning.
751 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2017 Issued a freezing rain advisory for Musselshell, Northern Rosebud, Treasure, and Custer Counties as warm air and precipitation overriding an arctic mass is causing freezing rain once this precipitation reaches the surface. Road conditions will be slick through the rest of this morning, and early afternoon along Highway 12 and Interstate 94 until temperatures warm above freezing. Warm moist air continues to advect into the area this morning, as upper level ridge shifts eastward. Any accumulations in the lower elevations should be light. Greatest concern today with regard to precip is potential for mixed precipitation (freezing rain, sleet, etc. Will certainly need to watch closely for freezing precip issues in those areas today.
Best potential for more moderate bursts of snow across Southeast Michigan will be between 5-11 AM EST when a weak cold front trailing low pressure developing near Lake Superior will pass through the area. H850 temps falling to -18 to -20 C will support max temps only in the low to mid 20s today, with wind chills remaining in the single digits. Very dry arctic airmass will fill in with high pressure behind the exiting upper wave. Dry air and winds shifting more southwesterly should support brief clearing late this evening and overnight before clouds increase again late ahead of the next low pressure system.
632 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Low pressure is moving off the Delmarva thiS morning. High pressure and much seasonable temperatures will return tonight and Friday. Road temps still above freezing. The trough axis will push east of the area around 00Z Friday with subsidence and drying shutting down squalls. We have issued a wind chill advisory for a portion of the Highlands for tonight. Very cold and brisk Thu night under building high pressure. Chilly Fri under high pressure.
/ISSUED 350 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ After a cold start to the morning with temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s, a warming trend will begin today as upper level high pressure builds in from the west.
649 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 For morning update have adjusted sky cover in line with current satellite, with greatest cover in the far southwest where warmer air aloft is trying to nudge its way in. A warm front will lift from eastern Montana and into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight. BUFKIT sounding profiles initially are cold enough for light snow this afternoon, with chances for sleet/light freezing rain arriving just after 00z/6PM CST Thursday. By 6AM CST Friday, temperatures will range from 27F in Rolla to the lower 40s in the southwest. A rapid warm up Friday followed by a couple of warm frontal and cold frontal passages with limited cooling. On Friday, despite a cold frontal passage during the day, highs will be in the 35F to 45F range with gusty winds mainly centered over north central ND.
Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon especially PVW/LBB with stronger winds developing aloft overnight as the low level inversion sets in. /issued 258 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ Upper level ridging will build into the the region today with northwesterly flow aloft continuing into tonight when the anticyclonically curved portion of ridge passes overhead.
Freezing rain is affecting many roads in Central Western Montana this morning, but the warm air is working its way north through the Bitterroot Valley causing a transition to just rain. Some areas of concern for pockets of freezing rain that may persist are east of Missoula on Interstate 90 through Bearmouth to Garrison Junction and Highway 200 through Potomac. An exception to that was the Mission Valley, which will likely remain mixed precipitation with some freezing rain until this afternoon. A change to a cooler air mass will begin Thursday night/Friday morning, and snow levels will slowly lower throughout the day on Friday. Areas that were rain will begin to transition to snow showers under this pattern, though freezing rain chances look minimal at this point.
Some slick roads are possible in the higher elevations above 3000 feet due to 1/2 an inch to an inch of accumulation. Elsewhere in the Valley, a dusting to a 1/4 inch is possible, mainly on cars and roofs -- but surface temperatures at/above freezing should not create issues on roads. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 26 58 41 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 23 57 41 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 24 56 41 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 19 52 36 / 40 10 0 0.
329 AM PST Thu Feb 9 2017 Tranquil and warm conditions will continue today under a ridge of high pressure.
547 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Aviation One wave of low pressure will track through the region this morning resulting in a continuation of snow showers. An area of high pressure moves in for this afternoon. Gusty southwest winds develop on Friday as a wave of low pressure tracks eastward through the Northern Great Lakes Region. Deep southwest flow develops on Friday as a wave of low pressure tracks eastward from the Northern Plains.
545 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure will move from the midwest this morning into the Ohio Valley this evening.
High pressure will move through the region over the next couple of days, keeping the weather quiet across central Indiana. Dry weather can be expected today as high pressure moves into the area. Dry weather will persist through Friday night under the influence of the high. However, as the center of the ridge passes tonight, surface flow will shift to the south and southwest and rapid warming is likely.
408 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure ridge will remain over the area the next few days providing mild but warm wx for the region. A strong upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Friday.
530 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 At 3 AM, a 1030 mb high pressure area was centered over Kansas City. The subsidence associated with this system and in the wake of a departing short wave trough (that brought mid clouds to the area during the evening) produced clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A tight surface pressure gradient between the high pressure system and a low pressure area over eastern Lake Superior kept the wind speeds in the 10 to 15 mph range. For tonight, a warm front will move quickly northeast across the area.
With a warm layer aloft moving in on the southwest side of the precipitation and surface temperatures remaining well below freezing, might see a brief period of wintry mix overnight but most locations impacted will see less than a tenth of an inch of total precipitation. Friday will be generally dry and much warmer than normal for this time of year.
554 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Low pressure will exit early this morning bringing an end to steady snow. Warmer temperatures and rain chances return for the weekend. N-NW flow, cold advection over the Great Lakes, and a crossing upper trough should result in scattered to numerous snow showers across the area today. The axis of the trough is progged to move into central PA by late afternoon. The highest snow amounts are expected to be in the higher terrain of WV/MD where upslope flow and saturation in the snow growth region should result in a few more inches of daytime accumulation. Building high pressure and backing flow should end any remaining snow showers this evening.
Even high country temperatures will be well above average for the date with 40s in the valley floors and 30s on the higher slopes. the upper ridge axis is progged to pass over the Continental Divide causing further warming aloft. Cross sections show this wind remaining up around timberline, however we'll need to monitor this flow should this momentum bleed down into the lower slopes of the Front Range. Will not issue any wind hilites but highest exposed mountain passes and ridge tops may see gusts 50-75 mph range. Moisture will be increasing over the mountains on Friday afternoon and evening with rain and snow showers in the mountain valleys in advance of next upper trof.
858 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 A cold front stretched southwest to northeast across FL in the vicinity of Tampa Bay. The cold front pushing south across the waters with increasing winds in it/s wake will finally clear out any lingering sea fog.
1018 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Low pressure is moving off the Delmarva this morning. High pressure and more seasonable temperatures will return tonight and Friday. Trough axis swings through the area today. We have issued a wind chill advisory for a portion of the Highlands for tonight. Very cold and brisk Thu night under building high pressure. Chilly Fri under high pressure.
546 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Low pressure is moving off the Delmarva thiS morning. High pressure and much seasonable temperatures will return tonight and Friday. The trough axis will push east of the area around 00Z Friday with subsidence and drying shutting down squalls. We have issued a wind chill advisory for a portion of the Highlands for tonight. Very cold and brisk Thu night under building high pressure. Chilly Fri under high pressure.
633 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 It will be windy in the wake of a strong cold front today. The pressure ridge moving into the forecast area behind the front will be near the area late tonight and Friday morning. The ridge will move off the coast Friday afternoon.
Snow showers with lake enhancement are likely to linger over the Alleghenies into the evening in association with strong CAA and passage of upper trough axis. Blustery and cold conditions are in store for the region tonight, as pres gradient remains fairly tight between intense low east of New Eng and high pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.
404 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a cold front from Mid Atlantic States to Mississippi Sound to Atchafalaya Bay and a 1030mb high over northern Missouri. Upper air analysis the main trough axis from Hudson Bay to Carolina coast and northwest flow over Plains and Mississippi valley. High pressure will continue to slide east tonight into Friday and winds will become more easterly Friday and southeast by Friday evening.
350 AM PST Thu Feb 9 2017 Tranquil and warm conditions will continue today under a ridge of high pressure.
437 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Cool high pressure, centered over the central Plains this morning, will move east today and tonight.
553 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Mild/dry weather to prevail the next couple of days as a flat up- per ridge builds over the region in the wake of yesterdays front. Warming temperatures/slowly increasing low-level moisture return to SE TX this weekend as the upper ridge breaks down and onshore surface winds resume. However, rain chances should remain on the low side starting Fri night through Sat given the lack of signif- icant lift/deep layer moisture. But we will be seeing changes by Sun afternoon/evening with the approach of a cold front from the Central Plains. This boundary is expected to slow down across SE TX Sun night and along with possible embedded short waves in the increasingly SW flow aloft (via the closed upper low near the CA Baja) will help produce scattered activity across the CWA by Sun night.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge axis lies on the outer Florida Straits with a weak cold front draped from north Florida into the north central Gulf of Mexico. Little change with the overall pattern as a ridge axis on the Florida Straits will shift southeastward as a weak cold front plows through the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A cold front will move down the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
16 Colder and drier conditions are expected today behind a cold front. The cold front has exited the CWA and the cold air is being ushered into the region behind some strong northwesterly winds. This winds will stay up during the day, so even with almost pure sunshine by the afternoon and temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, it will feel quite cooler than it actually is. A few cooler spots in the north will tempt the 20 degree mark by sunrise Friday morning.
A diffuse cold front will pass into and across South Florida later today, although IFR restrictions not anticipated. /issued 451 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017/ Today through Friday: Latest surface analysis shows a cold front draped along the Southeast CONUS from the Carolinas down towards southern Texas. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s, around 6 to 8 degrees above normal for this time of year. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent with dropping the aforementioned cold front southward over the region tonight. On Friday, behind the frontal boundary, winds will shift to the north, advecting in a cooler and drier airmass. Max temps are may only reach the mid 70s, a couple degrees cooler than normal.
551 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Unseasonably cold conditions expected across central and southeast Illinois today as a sprawling/chilly area of high pressure builds southeast into the area. However, the high is expected to be very progressive, with southerly return flow developing on its back side for tonight. The presence of this high and associated dry airmass will keep quiet weather going through the period. While surface temperatures will be significantly warmer than today -- reaching the 50s across areas from about Rushville southeast to Lawrenceville -- the northern CWA will be tempered by the 3-4 inches of snow cover that will start melting.
536 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 NW flow is currently in place across the Plains with a sharp trough over the Great Lakes and through the Ohio Valley. The cold front that swept through Tue night has pushed all the way down to the Gulf. As we head into Fri the upper pattern will flatten out which will allow lee troughing to strengthen. This will setup a strong warm advection pattern across the high Plains for Fri. Still confident in highs in at least the low 70s.
For morning update have adjusted sky cover in line with current satellite, with greatest cover in the far southwest where warmer air aloft is trying to nudge its way in. A warm front will lift from eastern Montana and into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight. BUFKIT sounding profiles initially are cold enough for light snow this afternoon, with chances for sleet/light freezing rain arriving just after 00z/6PM CST Thursday. By 6AM CST Friday, temperatures will range from 27F in Rolla to the lower 40s in the southwest. A rapid warm up Friday followed by a couple of warm frontal and cold frontal passages with limited cooling. On Friday, despite a cold frontal passage during the day, highs will be in the 35F to 45F range with gusty winds mainly centered over north central ND.
632 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure will move from the midwest this morning into the Ohio Valley this evening.
951 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure will move from the midwest this morning into the Ohio Valley this evening.
Warm moist air continues to advect into the area this morning, as upper level ridge shifts eastward. Any accumulations in the lower elevations should be light. Greatest concern today with regard to precip is potential for mixed precipitation (freezing rain, sleet, etc. Will certainly need to watch closely for freezing precip issues in those areas today.
The watch was dropped for the counties behind the surface boundary where temperatures have cooled into the low/mid 50s. Max temperatures were lowered several degrees today to account for the cooler post-frontal airmass. /issued 646 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2017/ The strongest gradient out ahead of the approaching cold front has shifted northeast out of the Midsouth. Though an isolated gust to near 35 mph will still be possible for the next hour or two in the lower Delta counties. observations and radar are currently positioning the cold front/line of storms from southeast Missouri back into Central Arkansas.
More snow is expected over the region Tuesday and Wednesday as a warm front moves north. A moist warm front will bring widespread precipitation today across the area. The other change was to lower snow amounts a bit on the palouse where temperatures have already warmed into lower 30s which will make accumulating snow difficult this afternoon with the high early March sun angle. Also made a few tweaks to the high temperatures for today. JW 18Z TAFS: Expect lowering CIGS and visibilities into the afternoon as a warm front brings widespread rain and snow. Drying in the boundary layer from increasing west-southwest boundary layer winds behind a cold front should result in MVFR/VFR conditions becoming more common by early Wednesday morning.
Currently, cold air advection on the backside of the large low pressure system to our northeast coupled with unidirectional winds and the mixed layer increasing in height has resulting in very strong winds aloft reaching the surface across much of western and central ND today. All counties within the blizzard warning have verified as of this writing, along with the majority of the high wind warned areas.
/ISSUED 349 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2017/ A cold front that extended south of a Hugo, OK to Decatur to Cisco line as of 3 AM will continue to move southeast this morning and should extend near an Emory to Cleburne to Goldthwaite line around 6 AM. Thanks to the cold advection behind the front, it will be cooler today despite us getting more insolation.
High pressure will continue to build over the forecast area today and Wednesday providing a majority of the area with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Although today will be chilly, afternoon temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday as a modest warming trend begins. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a low pressure system centered over the southern Canadian Province of Manitoba. A cold front is sliding south into the Mississippi Valley where an enhanced risk of severe weather is expected.