Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level jet is trailing the upper trough. The upper level trough situated over the area for the last couple of days will move east of the area on Wednesday, allowing for upper level ridging and a moderation in temperatures. We do climb into the 50s most areas, and winds shouldn't be too bad, maybe a little breezy east of the Highway 83 corridor in the afternoon.
Cold front is currently entering northwest AR and southeast OK and will exit the region over the next few hours. /Issued 333 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/ The calendar might say it's the last half of April, but it will feel a lot like February for most of the area today as a strong cold front brings an unseasonably cold airmass south across the plains this morning. Given temps above freezing any accumulation will remain confined to grassy surfaces at best and would melt very quickly with moderating temps once heavier precip moves out. Widespread sub-freezing temperatures will result given the nature of this airmass and as such have gone ahead with a Freeze Warning for all of eastern OK and western AR tonight.
Unfortunately, not much warming is expected through the day, as 850mb temps remain below 0 deg C, with 925mb temps a couple degrees either side of freezing. Clouds build in today as a wave associated with an upper low over the Great Lakes dives south across our area, with the wave passing over through the afternoon and evening. Another upper wave rotates through previously mentioned upper low. Do expect these to lean a bit more toward snow for dominant type, although wet bulb temperatures Wednesday will be closer to freezing.
Weak high pressure will develop into Utah tomorrow.
A ridge is building over the region today and Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the low 60s in western Montana and low 70s in central Idaho.
Roads are expected to become slippery tonight with a burst of snow and with temperatures falling well below freezing over most areas. A strong cold front had moved well south of the forecast area with a secondary front moving south across far southern Lower Michigan into northern Illinois. Overall, models have come into better agreement with the handling of the low and associated precipitation. Travel issues are likely as surface temperatures fall below freezing.
Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing tonight and Wednesday night for most of southern Wisconsin, which could damage any sensitive vegetation.
435 AM MDT Tue Apr 20 2021 An upper trough axis is passing over the forecast area now, creating subsidence and clearing skies in northwest flow aloft. Clear skies early on will all for some warming over the plains, however readings will be seasonably cool, remaining in the low 40s at best with the recent snow cover. Flow aloft will turn more westerly tonight as another trough moves in from the north and flow increases. We'll continue with likely PoPs over the ridges and east slopes and chance PoPs elsewhere. It should still be cold enough for snow for the most part, though there could be a little rain over the lower part of the plains in the afternoon.
The cold front has moved through the CWA allowing cooler air to gradually filter into the region. Expect temperatures to be in the mid 30s northwest to the low 40s southeast at the onset of the precipitation. With that being said, there are a few negative factors working against potential of accumulating snowfall including daytime precipitation and above freezing air/road temperatures. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for counties along and north of the Highway 60 corridor for today. For Wednesday afternoon, expect a return of sunshine to the area with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s.
Barring some breezy easterly winds with the sea breeze this afternoon, winds will be mostly light as high pressure shifts offshore. By this evening, a dry cold front will be pushing south through Central Texas before impacting much of our CWA before midnight with some gusty NNE winds.
514 AM MDT Tue Apr 20 2021 Anomalously deep/cold upper trough is in place over the region, supporting below normal temps and unstable conds. This will support much warmer conds Wed and esp Thur.
Bulk of the moisture is in the lower levels with mid level clouds persisting across much of central MT into this afternoon as the flow interacts with the higher terrain across central MT.
A weak upper trough will move across central Wisconsin this afternoon and could produce scattered snow or rain showers. A backdoor cold front will be moving from northeast to southwest later today. It could combine with another weak upper trough and be the forcing mechanism for convective snow showers over much of the area Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will start to rise to the lower 70s by this afternoon before the upcoming front. A strong cold front will push through the area this afternoon and during the evening. Behind the cold front, gusty winds will push much colder air into the region and cloud cover. The rest of Wednesday will be a chilly day as high pressure builds into the area. As high pressure settles into the area Wednesday night another frost may be possible across the area.
620 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 Tranquil conditions this morning with just some patchy cloud cover within the persist troughing across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Pieces of energy will be rotating through the trough throughout the short term. Inverted V soundings and wetbulb temperatures below freezing throughout the column will keep showers predominantly in the form of snow. However, surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s and mild ground temperatures will ensure no snow sticks and melts on contact, regardless of intensity.
Highs this afternoon will range from the lower to middle 80s in eastern areas to the lower 90s out west. Low temperatures Tuesday night will range from the upper 50s in the ranchlands to lower 60s in the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak cold front will drop through the CWFA late this evening and early Wednesday morning, with the primary impact being slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday afternoon. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with highs generally in the middle to upper 70s for much of the CWFA, while the typical warmer spots out west reach the lower 80s.
610 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 (Today and tonight) As of 2 am, a cold front is currently moving south through Childress, TX. With the earlier arrival of the front in the Big Country, expect cool afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s, while the Concho Valley and Heartland will see highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s, and the I-10 corridor will see highs in the low 70s. Gusty and cool north winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph will occur today behind the cold front. Meanwhile, the lows in the Concho Valley and Heartland look to reach around 33-36 degrees, so a Frost Advisory has been issued for those counties (except Irion County where it may be a bit warmer due to winds not being as light there).
After upper 60s to mid 70s area wide this afternoon, clouds will start to increase and an unseasonably strong cold front will approach from the west. With the approach of a strong cold front, many would assume severe weather, however, the precipitation with this system will be post-frontal.
534 AM MDT Tue Apr 20 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front is invading eastern NM and resulting in gusty northerly winds and areas of MVFR cigs. Cooler east today while central and western portions of the state remain nearly unchanged from yesterday.
613 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 Continued VFR with light winds today, followed by gusty NE winds tonight with a cold front. Barring some breezy easterly winds with the sea breeze this afternoon, winds will be mostly light as high pressure shifts offshore. By this evening, a dry cold front will be pushing south through Central Texas before impacting much of our CWA before midnight with some gusty NNE winds.
Another quiet night across the mid state tonight as the upper trough over the Plains continues to develop and work its way east toward the region. As the trough and cold front approach, southwest winds will pick up at the surface with very little moisture advection. Temps may be cool enough for some snow to mix in, especially east of I-65, but nothing to get excited about as surface temps should remain above freezing and precip will be mostly rain. Precip should be confined to the Plateau and just about out of the area by sunrise Wednesday, but expect cooler highs only in the 50s thanks to the cold front from overnight.
616 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 A cold front has greatly increased northerly winds early this morning with speeds still expected to increase a few more knots within the next few hours. This low cloud deck is expected to lift to VFR by mid afternoon. /issued 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/ The advertised cold front was currently plowing through the region early this Tuesday morning. Surface ridging will be in place Wednesday which will keep temperatures cool with light southeasterly surface winds.
704 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 An upper disturbance will keep cooler temperatures in place today into tomorrow along with chances for rain and snow showers during the day before warmer and drier conditions arrive to end the week. To the south, snow showers were seen along a baroclinic zone in the Missouri Valley in association with developing low pressure. As the day progresses, a lobe of vorticity and upper trough will pinwheel through the region as they spin around the large low to the east.
A cold front will push through the area overnight. The next cold front moving through the TX panhandle across NW OK. The next cold front over TX/OK expected to move through later tonight into early Wednesday morning.
1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 (Today and tonight) As of 2 am, a cold front is currently moving south through Childress, TX. With the earlier arrival of the front in the Big Country, expect cool afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s, while the Concho Valley and Heartland will see highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s, and the I-10 corridor will see highs in the low 70s. Gusty and cool north winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph will occur today behind the cold front. Meanwhile, the lows in the Concho Valley and Heartland look to reach around 33-36 degrees, so a Frost Advisory has been issued for those counties (except Irion County where it may be a bit warmer due to winds not being as light there).
No changes were needed for the early eve update as increased swly flow on the van of deepening, Great Lakes low pressure should support warm, moist advection and an overall increase in cloud cover ahead of a developing cold front. The developing cold front is supported by anticipated cyclogenesis, which should occur west of the region tonight. This should then support a fairly rapid increase to categorical PoPs after midnight, from west to east, as the cold front quickly advances eastward. Categorical precipitation, mainly in the form of rain showers should be ongoing Wednesday morning, but a changeover to a mix/snow is expected as upper troughing and sfc nwly flow continue to cool the column.
(This evening through Wednesday) As of 2pm, a strong cold front is progressing southward and has reached the I-10 corridor. The front will continue pushing southward this evening, as a 1025mb high pressure center moves into southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Overnight, the high will shift southward and settle over the Big Country by sunrise. Fairly light winds and mostly clear skies for most of the night will allow for decent radiative cooling conditions, which may drop temperatures down to around freezing, especially in low-lying areas. Tomorrow, the high pressure center is progged to drift further south over the Concho Valley before finally starting to move eastward late in the afternoon. Between potential cloud cover and the cold high pressure centered directly overhead, high temperatures for Wednesday are expected to stay well below seasonal normals.
1136 AM MDT Tue Apr 20 2021 Currently, upper trough exiting the region, and expect snowfall to continue to diminish through the morning. Overnight, most locations will again fall below freezing, though cloud cover will keep readings from dropping to record levels. An approaching upper-level trough and associated low will drop from the northwest on Wednesday and move into our area over the latter half of this week. The low will bring cold air advection at lower levels along with some additional moisture, which will likely result in some increased cloud cover and precipitation, which is expected to fall as snow.
Anomalously deep/cold upper trough is in place over the region, supporting below normal temps and unstable conds. This will support much warmer conds Wed and esp Thur.
Weak high pressure will persist through the day. A weakly organized storm system will bring unsettled weather for the middle to latter part of the work week before high pressure brings a warming and drying trend for the weekend. The forecast area finds itself under weak high pressure this morning in between a trough over the central United States and another making its way down the California coast. In the wake of the previous trough, much of the area had a relatively cold start this morning with widespread freezing temperatures.
A dry cold front will push across the region Wednesday morning, followed by gusty northwesterly winds. Main feature of the near term period will be an upper level trough passing through the region this morning/afternoon. Upper level trough axis pushes through tonight with clearing skies expected. Lows will be in the low 50s across AL and in the mid to upper 50s across GA and the FL Big Bend.
An upper trough axis is passing over the forecast area now, creating subsidence and clearing skies in northwest flow aloft. Clear skies early on will all for some warming over the plains, however readings will be seasonably cool, remaining in the low 40s at best with the recent snow cover. Flow aloft will turn more westerly tonight as another trough moves in from the north and flow increases. We'll continue with likely PoPs over the ridges and east slopes and chance PoPs elsewhere. It should still be cold enough for snow for the most part, though there could be a little rain over the lower part of the plains in the afternoon.
The piece from the north will help reinforce the cooler air in place. Don't expect any accumulation across the lower elevations.
A strong cold front is poised to move through tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be at least 10 degrees cooler than normal, with low ranging from the lower 40s in east Texas and central Louisiana to the mid to upper 40s along the I-10 corridor from Beaumont to Lafayette. Closer to the coast it will be in the lower 50s. High temperatures tomorrow will be int he 60s, a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler behind the front as high pressure builds back in.
1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 Latest data suggests that a shallow cold front was making its way through the PAH forecast area already, and should complete its trip by around daybreak, leaving the entire area under a light northerly flow. As the cold air continues to settle in after midnight, freezing temps are now forecast for locations along and north of the OH River and west of the MS River. After a chilly but mostly sunny day Wed, temps are expected to drop again to near freezing Wed night. Thu is also expected to be dry under high pressure and west- northwesterly flow aloft, with a slight moderation of surface temps ahead of the next ripple in the mid level flow.
Strong and gusty north-northeast winds behind this morning's cold front will weaken and become northeasterly this evening and eventually easterly overnight. /issued 248 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/ Clear skies will continue for most of the overnight ahead of our next cold front making headway through the Panhandle. Winds will shift out of the N/NE for the morning across much of the forecast area, leaving cooler and unfortunately slightly dustier air in its wake. Elsewhere in the region, lighter flow will occur over the Permian Basin and portions of SE NM where clear skies and high pressure will help temps plummet overnight into Wednesday AM.
A cooler night is in store across the region with dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s, partly cloudy skies, and light winds. The cooler surface temps may actually support some of the precip tomorrow to fall as a rain/snow mixture.
Dry conditions then return and will continue through the remainder of the short term period as high pressure settles in over the area late tonight and Wednesday before tracking off to the south Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper teens west to the lower 20s east, with highs on Wednesday ranging from the upper 40s east to the lower 50s west.
A cold front moves through overnight tonight, with gusty northerly winds developing after it passes. The next cold front moving through the TX panhandle across NW OK. The next cold front over TX/OK expected to move through later tonight into early Wednesday morning.
However, upstream observations to this point have shown only a few hundredths at best, and given the transitory nature of the showers, think the higher QPF is overdone. Generally looking for lows in the lower-mid 20s, though late night clearing and light winds could allow for pockets of colder temperatures. Low level temperatures slightly warmer than today, but still quite dry in the sub-cloud layer, so think snow is more likely with any heavier showers, while either sprinkles or flurries are possible with very light activity.
A closed low tracking form SW Oregon into the Great Basin today will draw an east to north wind across the region. Outside of the gusty winds, today will be mostly sunny, dry and cooler.
Tranquil conditions this morning with just some patchy cloud cover within the persist troughing across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Pieces of energy will be rotating through the trough throughout the short term. Inverted V soundings and wetbulb temperatures below freezing throughout the column will keep showers predominantly in the form of snow. However, surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s and mild ground temperatures will ensure no snow sticks and melts on contact, regardless of intensity.
Otherwise, it was chilly with readings at 1 pm in the low/mid 40s.
Clearing skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the low to upper 20s tonight. For Wednesday, expect partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 50s.
So cold in fact, we've issued a Freeze Warning for a chunk of the CWA, as overnight lows may get to at, or below freezing.
1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 The cold front has moved through the CWA allowing cooler air to gradually filter into the region. Expect temperatures to be in the mid 30s northwest to the low 40s southeast at the onset of the precipitation. With that being said, there are a few negative factors working against potential of accumulating snowfall including daytime precipitation and above freezing air/road temperatures. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for counties along and north of the Highway 60 corridor for today. For Wednesday afternoon, expect a return of sunshine to the area with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s.
As heating wanes and the large- scale trough axis shifts southeast this evening, snow showers should come to an end, and northwest winds also should diminish.
Incoming cold front will bring SCT SHRA and some MVFR ceilings late tonight, mainly from KTYS northward. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 58 36 63 41 / 10 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 53 34 60 37 / 20 20 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 53 33 61 37 / 20 20 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 52 30 55 32 / 30 40 10 10 0 NC.
Tonight, expect mostly clear skies allowing temperatures to drop well into the low to mid 20s across the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s in the ranchlands to lower 60s in the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak cold front will drop through the CWFA late this evening and early Wednesday morning, with the primary impact being slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday afternoon. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with highs generally in the middle to upper 70s for much of the CWFA, while the typical warmer spots out west reach the lower 80s.
1214 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 An upper disturbance will keep cooler temperatures in place today into tomorrow along with chances for rain and snow showers during the day before warmer and drier conditions arrive to end the week. To the south, snow showers were seen along a baroclinic zone in the Missouri Valley in association with developing low pressure. As the day progresses, a lobe of vorticity and upper trough will pinwheel through the region as they spin around the large low to the east.
1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 Snow has basically ended for our entire area as of 12pm, and temperatures are already rising above freezing, even where snow remains on the ground. Otherwise a very cold night for April standards is expected tonight with lows likely dropping below freezing area-wide.
Thermal profiles are cold enough for p type to be all snow as the column saturates, even this afternoon with sfc temps in the lower to mid 30s where it is snowing. We tweaked amounts to be in the 1 to 2 inch range as there will be some melting due to above freezing skin temps. - Cold High Brings Freeze tonight and Wednesday night Sharp upper trough and northerly flow will transport cold air into Lower Michigan. Temperatures were in the lower to mid 20s across our northern zones this morning and we expect them to be about 5 degrees colder tonight, with some upper teens in the colder spots. Widespread freeze both nights with several hours of sub- freezing temperatures potentially doing significant damage to fruit buds and blossoms.
High pressure will be the dominate feature over western Kansas through tomorrow as its ridge axis slides from eastern Colorado tonight and through southwest Kansas tomorrow. In addition, lee troughing will develop across eastern colorado. Lows tonight look to range form the low 20s across west central Kansas to upper 20s across south central Kansas.
breezy and warmer as a dry cold front moves across the area. Temperatures should reach the lower 80s area wide including the beaches due to gusty offshore winds.
At the surface, high pressure has expanded across the state with stratocu developing across much of the area as well. Otherwise, as sfc ridging remains dominant overnight with light winds, there remains little spread regarding morning lows with the entire area solidly seeing mid to upper 20s.
Cold front has reached the east slopes of the central mt chain where lingering MVFR to IFR cigs at 17Z are still expected to slowly improve through the afternoon. Cooler east today while central and western portions of the state remain nearly unchanged from yesterday.
Weak ridging will build into the area on Wednesday, bringing clearer conditions and warmer temperatures, but still a bit below normal for this time of year.
A deep upper-level trough has pulled cool arctic air out of Canada and this air mass, somewhat moderated by the time it gets here, will mean temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to get up into the mid to upper 50s.
1012 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 An upper disturbance will keep cooler temperatures in place today into tomorrow along with chances for rain and snow showers during the day before warmer and drier conditions arrive to end the week. To the south, snow showers were seen along a baroclinic zone in the Missouri Valley in association with developing low pressure. As the day progresses, a lobe of vorticity and upper trough will pinwheel through the region as they spin around the large low to the east.
200 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021 Winds are showing signs of decreasing in wake of this morning's strong cold front as low clouds erode west to east. We will opt to issue freeze warning from Hobbs northward and east to Borden Co as these are where the lightest winds will be with the highest surface pressure, and where high clouds will arrive the latest.