Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
246 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure will build into the region through Tuesday, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend. Mid level ridging across the region will shift off to the east through Tuesday night ahead of an upper level trough/low moving through the central US. A potent low pressure system will impact the region for the first few days of the period. A cold front trailing the low will lie nearly parallel to the meridional upper flow, contributing to the rather slow progress of the cold front.
High pressure will largely remain in control through Tuesday.
There will be a gradual increase in precipitation across the higher elevations south of I-70 overnight, with snow levels settling near 8500-9000 feet. Snow levels should remain near 8500-9000 feet through the day and some minor accumulations in the high mountains.
316 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue its eastward movement overnight, with return flow beginning late in the night and continuing Tuesday. The upper air pattern features a broad trof over the CONUS and an active southwest flow pattern over our region. The HiRes guidance hints at mid level support lifting north across AR Tuesday night out ahead of the parent upper trof over the Plains. This will result in a higher chance of showers and storms with the highest chance over the west 1/2 of the area into SEMO.
Rain is continuing across the forecast area late this morning mostly light to moderate as low pressure area that was along the Gulf coast near Mobile early this morning has moved northeast into northern Georgia late this morning. The most unstable airmass is east of the low pressure area in South Carolina where heavy rainfall is occurring with thunderstorms. The low pressure area is forecast to move east and northeast toward the southern Appalachians by early evening so an increase of precipitation should occur in eastern areas this afternoon into early evening. Lowered QPF amounts western areas but kept the higher totals east and southeast.
The primary trough axis extends from the northern High Plains to the Baja Peninsula, placing the Mid-Mississippi Valley solidly within southwesterly flow aloft. In the lower levels, high pressure is moving into the Lower Great Lakes, resulting in northeasterly winds across Missouri and Illinois. We'll only see weak warm air advection with those wind directions, though highs this afternoon should be a bit warmer than yesterday thanks to less cirrus and more sun across the region. The upper trough will begin accelerating eastward tonight, further deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. The deepening low will veer low level winds to the south in our neck of the woods, advecting deeper moisture and warmer temperatures into the region through Tuesday.
228 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 With high pressure bringing dry easterly winds into our area, the arrival of rain with a storm system to our southwest looks to hold off until Tuesday night, when a warm front lifts into our area.
Snow was occurring in lift ahead of the approaching trough and in an unstable airmass. SREF has the trough swinging through the area tonight, followed by upper ridging on Saturday and SW flow Sat. afternoon with some weak forcing ahead of the trough, so had these PoPs in the forecast.
High pressure remains in control keeping relatively dry and warm conditions in place with overnight lows between the upper 50s to low 60s, and afternoon highs in the 80s. Mid level ridging remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico and this feature will continue to maintain dry and warm conditions through this evening. Otherwise, fog and low clouds should once again gradually erode by late morning on Saturday with mainly sunny and warm weather once again as mid level ridging remains established across the area.
151 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 A passing low will likely bring rain and localized freezing rain to the area tonight.
Northwest flow aloft will set back up across the high plains building due to increasing convergence aloft. High pressure at the surface will quickly push through the CWA Saturday morning with returning south winds late in the evening and into the overnight hours Saturday night remaining relatively light 10-20 mph. Morning low temperatures Saturday morning down into the 20s to mid 30s as a weak cold front pushes quickly through before sunrise turning winds briefly out of the north.
High pressure positioned over Quebec keeps easterly gradient flow over the area again today, supplying plenty of additional lower cloud cover. A midlevel trough moving across the Dakotas and Nebraska this morning brings our next period of interest from this evening into the overnight hours. This subtle forcing looks to deepen the low-level saturated layer slightly and, with ice nucleation not likely, may be enough to touch off some patchy drizzle after 21z or so. At this point, temperatures look to remain above freezing so impacts are not expected. Deeper ascent arrives after sunset as the trough moves in from the west and evolves into a closed low overhead.
Surface level high pressure remains in control of the region today.
1231 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 An area of low pressure will bring rain and perhaps some light ice to portions of the area tonight.
1031 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A weak cold front/boundary is currently across the Permian Basin with an abundant supply of moisture. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 30s across portions of Southeast New Mexico to the 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin.
Temperatures may warm into the low 40s tomorrow across the Snake Basin, from the Treasure Valley to the Magic Valley.
High pressure remains in control with light northerly winds and will lead to similar conditions again on Saturday night. High pressure remains in control keeping relatively dry and warm conditions in place with overnight lows between the upper 50s to low 60s, and afternoon highs in the 80s.
Highs today will be around or slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging from lower 50s north to upper 50s south.
Dry conditions return for the first half of the next work week under building high pressure.
Deep layer ridging remains situated over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. However, the lower level ridge should push further east towards the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. Gentle to moderate northeast breezes will ease slightly into this afternoon as a ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico slides eastward. Expect breezes to continue to generally slacken through Sunday as the aforementioned ridge continues to drift eastward and settle across the Florida Peninsula.
This activity is occuring north of a warm front that is becoming stationary as northern stream upper trough passes over central plains this morning. In the wake of this upper wave, a reinforcing lower level ridge and associated weak cold front will move southward over Oklahoma during the day. Near this potential fog development, some temperatures will hover near freezing across far northern/northwest Oklahoma, so some riming in freezing fog cannot be ruled out Sunday morning.
Clouds will hold firm tonight as low temperatures drop into the lower to middle 30s.
Nevertheless, unseasonably warm conditions are expected to remain in place later today, with highs climbing mainly into the lower/mid 60s.
Models continue to show cooling in the low levels early this morning with plenty of moisture. In some higher elevations of the mountains where temperatures could get below freezing, some freezing drizzle or light rain remains a possibility. Therefore will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain in the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains. Temperatures in the higher elevations of the mountains will be close to freezing, so can't rule out some freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Precipitation will continue to linger for Sunday in northwesterly flow and areas of DZ, but overall, a drier trend will start to take hold as low pressure over the Great Lakes continues to move south and east.
440 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2022 The weekend weather will be fairly quiet with an upper ridge over the region ahead of the next strong low pressure system. Shallow inversion lingers but airmass is warming under the inversion for a smaller range of temperatures from rivers to ridge tops. Main focus for the forecast is the upper low moving through the west early in the week. Current model runs have slowed the progression of the Colorado low and closed off the upper low a little more.
During Sunday, a trough will move into the region. The path of an associated low pressure center is important for the focus of precipitation in north-central Idaho and western Montana, but model guidance is not in good agreement on the low location. A northern track of the low, which favors snow in north-central Idaho through west-central Montana, followed by Lemhi County and southwest Montana, is represented by the EC ensemble, while the GFS ensemble has a southern track with less snow in north- central Idaho and west-central Montana.
May locations will likely reach the lower 80s today with 70s along the coast.
703 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 Surface level high pressure remains in control of the region today.
With the influence of the upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast and the surface frontal boundary stalled in the region, temps were able to fall quickly last night. It currently appears to be more low clouds than fog in the slightly warmer area between I-20 and Highway 82, but some patches of fog are still possible through mid morning.
Visibilities will continue to improve as the fog burns off over the next hour or so, but the low stratus may take a bit longer to completely scatter out given how widespread it is for inland areas. Surface level high pressure remains in control of the region today.
429 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Key Messages: - Periods of light freezing drizzle, drizzle, and snow will be possible today. Today: Light snow, drizzle/freezing drizzle potential. Model soundings show little cloud ice available leading to drizzle/freezing drizzle during the early morning, with deeper saturation holding to northern locations.
With the clearing skies in along the I-75 and I-64 corridors, temperatures are likely to dip into the lower-40s in those locations. Forecasted dew points are in the lower-40s where saturation will likely take place and fog development will occur. Upper-level ridging will build through the day today, providing for a mostly dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper-50s. The Alberta Clipper is progged to track over the Great Lakes and will drag a cold front with it. High pressure builds in behind the departing from for Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing about a quiet end to an active weekend.
239 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Key Points: - Freezing fog development will begin around midnight tonight and could create slick spots around northeastern Kansas.
Low pressure developed along the front and tracked east across southern OK overnight, as evidenced by McAlester's (KMLC) brief stint in the warmer air. This frontal wave of low pressure is now over SW AR and will continue east.
Even so, low level ridging will remain in place, still only meriting 10 percent PoPs.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak slow moving cold front extended from Big Lake to San Angelo to Cross Plains this afternoon. Areas of fog will continue to be a concern along the weak dissipating cold front, tonight into midday Sunday.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be two to three degrees warmer than today.
Clear areas tonight and Sunday will stay much cooler than the foggy and cloudier areas.
Mid level ridging remains in place for now across the Gulf of Mexico so dry and warm conditions will continue through this evening.
A few mid level clouds but overall sunny skies with temperatures in the low 80s this afternoon. High temperatures will remain in the lower 80s across South Florida.
336 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 A cold front will bring a few showers on Sunday followed by a cooling trend as high pressure builds.
1106 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Key Messages: - Periods of light freezing drizzle, drizzle, and snow will be possible today. Today: Light snow, drizzle/freezing drizzle potential. Model soundings show little cloud ice available leading to drizzle/freezing drizzle during the early morning, with deeper saturation holding to northern locations.
The air mass will remain unmodified, however, and our temperatures will gradually climb from the 50s into the lower 60s by the afternoon thanks to the prevailing southerly winds.
1159 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 A 1018 mb low pressure system is situated in western AR while a nearly stalled front extends east across AR into northern MS.
Post-frontal temperature advection should be near neutral or slightly cooler.
(Sunday through Saturday) After any fog erodes Sunday morning, quiet weather is expected Sunday as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
Tranquil weather is expected over the short term with the atmosphere above western Kansas remaining dry with lee troughing developing across eastern Colorado this evening.
The lower clouds are likely to expand through sunrise before mixing out mid to late morning. 500mb ridge hanging around for another day with a stationary surface front analyzed over North Texas. Subsidence from the ridge and moderate to fresh southeasterly flow in advance of the front to provide another warm December day.
Dry conditions return for the first half of the next work week under building high pressure. As we head into the overnight period, a 500mb trough will shift eastward across the Great Lakes region. Models advertise precipitation along the trailing trough/cold front will develop after or around 06z/4am. Forecast thermodynamic profiles suggest that snow will be the dominate p-type across Venango/Clarion/Jefferson/Forest counties with a transition to rain farther south as both surface temperature is expected to be above freezing, along with less moisture in the dendritic snow growth zone. Overnight lows will range from the low 30s to the low 40s across the area. This precipitation should shift east out of the area by about 15z in wake of the cold front and associated trough.
This will lead to the formation of a lee low/trough forming over eastern parts of Colorado Sunday afternoon.
For the most part the low visibility across the forecast area is clearing. Highs today will be around or slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging from lower 50s north to upper 50s south.
The highest precipitation amounts will be in the southwest portion of the area. As the upper level system pushes east of the area, a brief ridging pattern will develop over the area ahead of the next active pattern.
Latest model data continues to show heavy snow through Sunday morning in the mountains, with totals over 2 feet on the highest peaks.
318 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 Radar returns are starting to intensity across Upper Michigan as a negatively-tilted trough continues its eastward propagation into the Upper Midwest.
1118 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 A 1018 mb low pressure system is situated in western AR while a nearly stalled front extends east across AR into northern MS.
Fog lifts in the hours following daybreak Sunday morning, followed by cloudy skies and cooler high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s northwest zones to the mid 70s southeast.
That trend should continue thru the day tmrw as the high strengthens its grip.
Drizzle, freezing drizzle and light snow remain possible into the afternoon ahead of an approaching upper lvl trough. Activity should taper off tonight as the trough axis pivots overhead and subsidence takes over. CMiller (Issued 249 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022) Today through Sunday: A mix of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries has been falling overnight, with temperatures in most locations between 31 and 33. Forecast soundings suggest that for most of the area, little cloud ice will be available, with most precipitation falling as light rain or drizzle (temperatures should be above freezing through the day today). In any case, very light rates combined with temperatures above freezing should result in little to no impact. Precipitation will end this evening as the wave pushes east, with lows in the low 30s.
Dry weather will then prevail until a larger low pressure system moves in mid-late week with multiple precipitation types and travel impacts possible. Otherwise, cloudy sky with nwly flow will prevail for all and temperatures will drop to near freezing for most.
Drier conditions are expected Sunday into the first half of the week as an upper level ridge builds into the region.
413 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 Radar returns are starting to intensity across Upper Michigan as a negatively-tilted trough continues its eastward propagation into the Upper Midwest.
Key Points: - Freezing fog development will begin around midnight tonight and could create slick spots around northeastern Kansas.
Deep upper low in place over the western states ushering moisture across Idaho today and expected to continue through and past the short term period. The deep south flow is expected to keep temperatures mild through the lower elevations for the Snake Plain and valleys south/east, which will limit or even eliminate snow potential EARLY in the event. Upper low moves into northern Nevada late Sunday into Sunday night, sending weak cold front across East Idaho.
539 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A weak slow moving cold front extended from Big Lake to San Angelo to Cross Plains this afternoon. Areas of fog will continue to be a concern along the weak dissipating cold front, tonight into midday Sunday.
Drier conditions expected Sunday into the first half of the week as an upper level ridge builds in.
954 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 A cold front will bring a few showers on Sunday followed by a cooling trend as high pressure builds.
A strong area of low pressure has continued to move southeast, taking the risk of high winds and heavy precipitation with it. Likewise, lowering snow levels to around 2000 feet over the next 24 hours could bring snowfall lower, but total accumulation should stay less than 2 to 4 inches everywhere except the highest peaks of the Trinity Alps. Any lingering showers are expected to dissipate by Sunday evening with weak high pressure allowing for dry, clear weather through the early week. Under weak winter heating and offshore flow, clear weather will also welcome very cold conditions with widespread freezing temperatures even along the coast. While this low could provide forcing, models vary widely on its ability to tap into tropical moisture.
943 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 Weak low pressure will cross the area tonight, maintaining low clouds, some fog, and areas of light rain or drizzle. The system will depart by Sunday morning leaving more low clouds and slightly cooler temperatures in its wake.
654 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 A cold front will bring a few showers on Sunday followed by a cooling trend as high pressure builds.
Synoptically, the track of the low pressure system responsible for this storm continues to stay along roughly the same path as depicted yesterday in the models.
A strong upper level low off the Oregon coast continues to bring strong southwest flow to the area.
1229 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2022 Weak cold front brings low chances for showers overnight into Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two cooler across the mountains tonight; therefore, the highest elevations may see light rain mix with or change over to snow. There is some uncertainty on how quickly the surface will cool, but with colder temperatures anticipated tonight light freezing rain continues to be a concern. A cooler air mass follows the passing trough, so expect temperatures to peak early in the day with downward trends after the noon hour. An upper wave will pass by northeast of the area, but given rather dry air in the low/mid levels, not really anticipating any upslope precipitation, although a highly isolated rain/snow shower early Sunday night across the northeast mountains cannot entirely be ruled out.
Have an SPS out currently for it, and another one in north-central Minnesota for freezing drizzle. Clear areas tonight and Sunday will stay much cooler than the foggy and cloudier areas.
354 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2022 Presently, a cold front is tracking across the forecast area.
Synoptically, ridging builds at the surface and aloft to the northwest and eventually north.
At the surface, a cold front was sagging southeast into southern middle TN and northwest AL between HSV and MSL.
1251 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2022 A cold front will bring a few showers on Sunday followed by a cooling trend as high pressure builds.
1249 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2022 Weak low pressure will cross the area tonight, maintaining low clouds, some fog, and areas of light rain or drizzle. The system will depart by Sunday morning leaving more low clouds and slightly cooler temperatures in its wake.
110 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2022 Weak cold front brings low chances for showers today. A weak cold front will push through the region today, with some showers possible. Behind the front, models show cooling in the low levels with a weak upslope component late today and tonight. As temperatures cool, any precipitation could become freezing drizzle or flurries. An upper wave will pass by northeast of the area, but given rather dry air in the low/mid levels, not really anticipating any upslope precipitation, although a highly isolated rain/snow shower early Sunday night across the northeast mountains cannot entirely be ruled out.
326 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2022 Light rain and rain, snow mixed showers will taper off today as low pressure exits the region. Dry weather and seasonable temperature will start the next work week before a large low pressure system brings a wintry mix of precipitation later in the week. Snow may mix for locations north of Pittsburgh where cooler near sfc air resides, but little to no accumulation is expected. Dry air and subsidence with impinging high pressure will promote a mostly dry afternoon to evening period with the low quickly exiting east.
Aloft, upper level flow became mostly zonal as the upper level trough flattened. At the surface, high pressure situated over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico should keep light winds, generally from the north and northeast.
1047 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A weak slow moving cold front extended from Big Lake to San Angelo to Cross Plains this afternoon. Areas of fog will continue to be a concern along the weak dissipating cold front, tonight into midday Sunday.
Low-level ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico moved very little over the past 24-hours. Water vapor imagery highlights plenty of synoptic action across the CONUS and western North Atlantic, but the Keys remain within the dry and stable confines of the mean-layer ridging rooted near the Yucatan.
531 DM upper low centered about 130 NM WNW of KCEC this morning is forecast to move down the CA coast today as secondary low moves into the Great Basin. 5H temps in the lower -30s C support potential for GS in stronger storms. Below normal high temperatures expected Monday with most stations in the Central Valley topping out in the lower 50s.
Forecast Highlights: -Dense freezing fog is occurring for some this morning. Forecast Discussion: Dense freezing fog is ongoing early this morning across eastern Kansas, with visibilities less than a quarter of a mile. In the meantime, temperatures will remain below freezing until after 15Z, so the fog could create some slick spots on sidewalks, driveways and area roadways.
627 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 (Sunday through Monday) The cold front is a little more than half way across our cwa with north winds now at Lufkin, Shreveport and Junction City.