Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This increase in cloud cover is in response to weak isentropic lift on the southern section of the ridge over central Appalachians. Also, convergence over the area associated with an inverted trough across far east Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. For today, this inverted trough will remain with enough instability, isentropic lift, and convergence to produce isolated to widely scattered showers over far southeast TN/southwest NC. For tonight, inverted trough is replaced by ridging across the southern Applachians.
351 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022) Today through Sunday: Low level warm air advection and moisture advection will increase over the area this morning and into the afternoon ahead of the low pressure system currently over southern Minnesota. A few storms have developed in Iowa associated with the low level jet. As the low tracks southeast, northeast flow on the backside will be present over the area, lingering moisture and potentially some light showers or drizzle mainly east of Madison Sunday morning. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side for the end of the weekend with values in the low to mid 70s.
We'll find ourselves largely in an amplified pattern with ridging in the west and troughing in the eastern parts of CONUS in this forecast period, resulting in mostly northwest flow aloft. As the low pulls away, we could see periods of light rain or drizzly precip persist through Sunday downwind of Lake Michigan. High pressure looks to largely dominate the region Sunday.
The mid to upper level ridge will center itself over the lee of the Rockies this afternoon near the OK panhandle. At the surface, light southerly to easterly flow between a lee trough to the west and high to the east over NE Arkansas will be present. Temperatures will be around 3-5 degrees F higher this afternoon under the ridge and clear skies.
933 PM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022 A cold front will push across the Inland Northwest tonight bringing the last threat of showers and thunderstorms to the region before pushing out on Saturday. This cold front will also lead to cooler temperatures and breezy conditions on Saturday.
Broad upper level high will continue to gradually shift ESE today from SE Colorado today into western Oklahoma by early tomorrow with very little change in ambient weather from yesterday. Overnight lows will be seasonally mild and maybe a degree or two warmer than early this morning, given the higher dewpoints across the region.
/Issued 1130 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022/ /Overnight through Sunday/ North and Central Texas will remain embedded within fairly deep easterly flow through the weekend around the periphery of stronger ridging centered off to our north. This higher moisture content is associated with a westward moving tropical wave and should approach the south Texas coast sometime on Saturday afternoon.
1052 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will remain over the Central/Southern Plains through tomorrow. A slight increase in moisture will help to keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than earlier in the week.
Compared to yesterday, the 850 mb thermal ridge will be of a similar strength (850 mb temperatures around 24-25 deg C), and surface flow will also be similar (from the east).
Slightly cooler and moister air is in place for most areas. Upper level analysis shows high pressure now centered over the southern Rockies/Plains, with weak westerly flow over the northern Plains. A slightly cooler and unsettled pattern will develop for the next few days as more active flow and monsoonal moisture aloft rotate around the high from the Great Basin region and the central Rockies. Considerable cloudiness on Sunday will likely lead to slightly cooler temps, but still above average.
The main story is the prominent ridge aloft bringing us hot and dry weather through the weekend. Water vapor imagery shows prominent ridging and high pressure aloft over the region. Tomorrow will be a tad warmer with highs still in the mid to upper 90s but with a few places seeing low 100s. The surface trof to the northwest will move overhead and start to bring a weak cold front through the area. Sunday, areas north of the front will see a very slight improvement in temperatures but it will still be hot in the lower 90s.
A weak cold front will enter the region from the north today, however high temperatures are not expected to be impacted much if any.
300 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry weather is expected under high pressure, until shower chances return Sunday with approaching low pressure. Scattered showers return late tonight and Sunday with increasing moisture and ascent as the trough axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region.
1022 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Hot and dry weather will be the story for the next few days as a upper ridge of high pressure remains centered over the plains. Dry surface conditions across the area will lead to surface dewpoints remaining in the lower to upper 50s, which will keep heat index values closer to the air temperature, with the highest heat index values of 100 to 105. So even with max temperatures around 100 it wont seem as oppressive with the lower dewpoints.
High pressure aloft and relatively dry atmosphere will provide quite aviation weather with just a light to moderate southerly flow in place. The center of the high is roughly over western parts of Kansas, and dry air is evident over much of the High Plains. Through the weekend, this upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly move south and become more centered over the forecast area, bringing the dry sinking air over the Panhandles.
Slightly warmer on highs today as compared to yesterday though.
203 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air to overtake the region today and Sunday. Today and Tonight: Main cold front will be south of the cwa through the period. An unseasonably deep upper level trough over New England will push a cold front south of the CSRA and Midlands on Sunday. The lower dew points will allow low temps to drop into the mid to upper 60s. A few sheltered locations might drop into the lower 60s.
A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will return tonight into Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. The low levels will remain fairly dry though which should help limit pcpn chances later this afternoon across our north. Temperatures today will remain a few degrees below normal with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s across the north to the low 80s in the south. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs on Sunday ranging from the low 70s in the northeast to around 80 degrees in the far southwest.
Cold front will move south to near the GA/FL line this afternoon, then sink just to the south Tonight, as high pressure builds to the north.
353 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Strong upper level high pressure will keep conditions dry through today.
108 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Unsettled weather will continue across the area through the remainder of today as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. The front will move south of the area later this afternoon allowing high pressure along with cooler and drier air to overtake the region for the weekend. An unseasonably deep upper level trough over New England will push a cold front south of the CSRA and Midlands on Sunday. The lower dew points will allow low temps to drop into the mid to upper 60s. A few sheltered locations might drop into the lower 60s.
1214 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) High pressure centered over CO/KS/OK border will keep us near to slightly above normal today with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Rain chances will decrease substantially this afternoon, confined only to the higher terrain, as drier air pushes southward into the CWA. Overnight temperatures will continue in the low to mid 70s thanks to light winds and clearing skies.
The weekend is expected to be dry as a mid lvl ridge rmns centered ovr central Plains States. The ridge is progged to expand into the Mid-South the next few days, keeping a lid on rain chcs.
301 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure exiting the region is allowing for a disturbance to become increasingly impactful to the U. This is expected to slowly but increasingly fill in over the next few hours, courtesy of sitting on the periphery of the Plains' ridge. We'll find ourselves largely in an amplified pattern with ridging in the west and troughing in the eastern parts of CONUS in this forecast period, resulting in mostly northwest flow aloft. As the low pulls away, we could see periods of light rain or drizzly precip persist through Sunday downwind of Lake Michigan. High pressure looks to largely dominate the region Sunday.
409 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected all weekend as high pressure will be present over the region. High pressure will persist through this period with dry conditions expected through Sunday. Partly sunny skies are expected Sunday with cloud cover increasing late in the day as an upper level trough approaches the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as the flow becomes more westerly. A slow-moving trough over eastern North America will carve out a mid-level cutoff low over the northeastern U.
1150 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Cooler and dry conditions will continue tonight, along with some high clouds. Conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening in the northeast and east as a cold front moves into central Illinois. Clouds will hang around for a while this evening, but should scatter out later in the evening as high pressure trys to build back into the area later tonight. The warm front associated with this system will bring showers and possible storms to the northeast and eastern parts of the CWA tomorrow night. The weather system that moves into the area Sat-Sat night will have a cold front move through as well.
113 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through the weekend.
GOES-16 satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis this evening depicts an upper level ridge encompassing the Rockies and Plains and an upper level trough axis over the Eastern United States. Some high clouds embedded within northerly flow aloft are dropping into the Lower Mississippi Valley resulting in mostly clear skies. /issued 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022/ Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. Currently, a large area of high pressure covers much of the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will remain below normal on Saturday but warm up quite a bit on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
An upper level ridge has built southeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portions of the Southeast, shifting an upper trough east of the East Coast. Have also toned down the likely or higher PoPs, with a combination of increased upper subsidence from the upper ridge poking southeast over the Southeast, and decreased moisture levels overall. A few of these have a better chance of becoming strong to severe, though, with decreased cloud cover in the morning hours leading to warmer temperatures and greater instability, especially the further inland from the coast one goes. Looking at temperatures, around seasonal temperatures are expected, with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s each day and bottoming out in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast.
1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (Tonight) Quiet/seasonably mild wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this Fri evening, as a frontal boundary continues to drop southward closer to the Gulf Coast, while high pressure out of the north settles more into the region.
Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 50s north to the lower to middle 60s south. For today, low pressure across southern Minnesota is expected to move east into the Great Lakes region. The track of the low and warm front surface position will be the focus for additional showers and a few storms this afternoon into this evening across eastern Wisconsin. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s.
342 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 On the synoptic scale, a trough is centered over the east coast while a ridge is positioned over the Rockies. Low pressure located in southwestern Minnesota will progress southeastward towards Central Kentucky by Sunday night. As the low pressure moves through Indiana, a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm is possible late tonight in portions of the Evansville Tri-State. Breezy southwesterly winds Sunday will result in temperatures warming to near normal and an increase in moisture ahead of an afternoon dry cold frontal passage.
A period of light winds and nearly flat waves will continue for tonight then south winds will increase again on Saturday as the high pressure center moves east. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as low pressure moves along a warm front.
H500 ridging looks to remain dominant to the west of the area with a trough persisting across the eastern US. At the sfc, ridging south of the Great Lakes will slowly work its way eastward. Temperatures may be a bit cooler across NE AR Saturday but by Sunday hot temperatures are expected areawide.
North Texas will remain under the influence of mid level high pressure with the deeper tropical moisture remaining confined to coastal areas. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Sunday/ North and Central Texas will remain embedded within fairly deep easterly flow through the weekend around the periphery of stronger ridging centered off to our north. This higher moisture content is associated with a westward moving tropical wave and should approach the south Texas coast sometime on Saturday afternoon.
456 AM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure settled just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle during the night and models suggest it will remain quasi-stationary this weekend.
Additional moisture has pushed into the region, thanks our position on the edge of an upper level ridge along which weak disturbances can pass along. Those along Lake Superior will stay somewhat cooler as usual, with northeasterly winds or a lake breeze circulation expected most afternoons.
500 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Current mesoanalysis very early this morning indicates a cold front continuing to drop southeast across the area. With weak cold air advection persisting into tonight, it will be a cooler night. Lower to mid 60s will be more common to the west as the low level flow becomes more southeasterly when high pressure over western MN drifts eastward.
Upper ridging begins to transition to a more zonal pattern come Sun as low level flow becomes more southerly. Daytime highs look to be in the low to mid 80s, dropping a bit by the end of the week.
Strong upper level high pressure will keep conditions dry through today.
Ridging aloft has nudged a bit further east into the region, with northwest flow aloft prevailing. Regardless, highs across the forecast area will remain warm as they peak in the low and middle 90s.
On the synoptic scale, a trough is centered over the east coast while a ridge is positioned over the Rockies. Low pressure located in southwestern Minnesota will progress southeastward towards Central Kentucky by Sunday night. As the low pressure moves through Indiana, a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm is possible late tonight in portions of the Evansville Tri-State. Breezy southwesterly winds Sunday will result in temperatures warming to near normal and an increase in moisture ahead of an afternoon dry cold frontal passage.
Keeping that in mind, waiting to see if we get some stratus development soon with the higher low level moisture across the S. Although the dew points are lower in the N half and should continue to be so today into much of tonight, we are still looking at warm temperatures today for highs from the mid 80s to the lower 90s, just not as humid across the NRN half.
Temperatures are quickly rising into the low and mid 80s.
704 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will keep us dry with lower humidity into early Sunday.
The large scale pattern for today has high pressure centered over the Central Plains with monsoon moisture being directed across Arizona, southern California, eastern Nevada, and western Utah.
An U/L trough along the eastern seaboard will sink south over the Florida peninsula over the next couple of days with increasing deep layer moisture and instability across the forecast area. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds less than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet through the period.
536 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry weather is expected under high pressure, until shower chances return Sunday with approaching low pressure. Scattered showers return late tonight and Sunday with increasing moisture and ascent as the trough axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region.
High pres ridge aligned ovr the FA. The weekend is expected to be dry as a mid lvl ridge rmns centered ovr central Plains States. The ridge is progged to expand into the Mid-South the next few days, keeping a lid on rain chcs.
335 AM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 A ridge of high pressure remains firmly in place over the western CONUS. By the evening hours, slightly drier air will begin working its way into the northwestern corner of the state as the ridge is suppressed by stronger westerly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast is on track today with weak SE flow around the periphery of the ridge resulting in some weak upslope flow across SE TN. This increase in cloud cover is in response to weak isentropic lift on the southern section of the ridge over central Appalachians. Also, convergence over the area associated with an inverted trough across far east Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. For today, this inverted trough will remain with enough instability, isentropic lift, and convergence to produce isolated to widely scattered showers over far southeast TN/southwest NC. For tonight, inverted trough is replaced by ridging across the southern Applachians.
1007 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Weak high pressure continues to ridge across the state at the surface this morning as a stalled boundary lays across the deep south. Aloft, a deep trough will push offshore of the eastern US coast today and then linger through mid-week. At the surface, the stalled boundary will slowly settle southward through the rest of the weekend as the high pressure ridge axis across the area shifts south. Temperatures are on track to reach to around 90 near the coast to the lower to some mid 90s inland. Winds will be in transition today and Sunday as the high pressure ridge shifts south over the area.
Temperatures through the weekend will range from the lower to mid 90s across western Nevada to the 80s in central and eastern Nevada where cloud coverage and moisture will be greater.
High pressure aloft and relatively dry atmosphere will provide quite aviation weather with just a light to moderate southerly flow in place.
645 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected all weekend as high pressure will be present over the region. Some minor updates were needed for the hourly temperatures as some areas were cooler than forecasted. High pressure will persist through this period with dry conditions expected through Sunday. Partly sunny skies are expected Sunday with cloud cover increasing late in the day as an upper level trough approaches the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as the flow becomes more westerly. A slow-moving trough over eastern North America will carve out a mid-level cutoff low over the northeastern U.
621 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air to overtake the region today and Sunday. Main cold front will be south of the cwa through the period. An unseasonably deep upper level trough over New England will push a cold front south of the CSRA and Midlands on Sunday. The lower dew points will allow low temps to drop into the mid to upper 60s. A few sheltered locations might drop into the lower 60s.
928 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will keep us dry with lower humidity into early Sunday.
616 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows the upper ridge currently centered across the central High Plains with fairly dry mid level air expanding southward through west-central Texas. With the upper ridge still off to our north, near average temperatures will continue this afternoon and blended guidance continues to fare quite well in this setup. The ridge will pivot southward Sunday, centering across the TX Panhandle and nudging thickness up some. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be a degree or two warmer than today as a result, reaching the mid to upper 90s for most with 100s possible in the northeastern Permian Basin and along the Rio Grande.
Another productive day of thunderstorm activity is on tap today, with SBCAPE values ranging 1000-2000 J/kg and the highest values are forecast south and west of Tucson. With a weak mid-level anti-cyclone nearby, steering flow is rather light today. Clouds will continue to decrease in coverage through mid morning before cumulus begin to develop over the higher elevations followed by SCT SHRA/TSRA after 17z-18z.
740 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry weather is expected under high pressure, until shower chances return Sunday with approaching low pressure. Scattered showers return late tonight and Sunday with increasing moisture and ascent as the trough axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region.
A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will return tonight into Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. Not too many notable changes made to the ongoing fcst as S/W energy pivots around the NE periphery of a pronounced midlevel ridge positioned across the south-central plains. The low levels will remain fairly dry though which should help limit pcpn chances later this afternoon across our north. Temperatures today will remain a few degrees below normal with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s across the north to the low 80s in the south. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs on Sunday ranging from the low 70s in the northeast to around 80 degrees in the far southwest.
549 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 A large upper ridge has set up over the central plains and will be the primary catalyst for dry and hot weather to continue through the beginning of the work week. With the slowly approaching cold front, winds will gradually veer out to southwesterly.
929 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected all weekend as high pressure will be present over the region. High pressure in control today with sunny skies across the region. Some minor updates were needed for the hourly temperatures as some areas were cooler than forecasted. High pressure will persist through this period with dry conditions expected through Sunday. Partly sunny skies are expected Sunday with cloud cover increasing late in the day as an upper level trough approaches the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as the flow becomes more westerly. A slow-moving trough over eastern North America will carve out a mid-level cutoff low over the northeastern U.
607 AM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure settled just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle during the night and models suggest it will remain quasi-stationary this weekend.
Forecast is on track today with weak SE flow around the periphery of the ridge resulting in some weak upslope flow across SE TN. A low 10 to 20 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms is possible near the higher elevations in the vicinity of CHA, but the probability is too low to include in the TAF. Clearing is expected tonight with light winds across the region as high pressure remains in control. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 71 90 69 / 10 10 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 87 69 88 67 / 0 10 20 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 86 69 86 67 / 0 10 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 83 65 82 64 / 0 30 50 60 30.