Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the area. An upper level ridge remains in place across the Plains while a trough remains over the western states. The lower boundary layer remains mixed tonight so temperatures are only expected to fall into the lower 70s in most areas. With little change in the overall pattern save the thermal axis extending into central Kansas, highs should range from the low to upper 90s across the CWA.
Large area of cool Canadian high pressure remains centered across Ontario into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Broad upper level troughing is holding over the NE US. calm and rather cold mid June night across the Northwoods as that cool Canadian high pressure center shifts into Quebec with pronounced surface ridging holding throughout the Great Lakes region. Eventually, the center will sag into New England, bringing some weak southerly return flow into the region along the backside of the high.
The upper trough shifts slightly eastward on Sunday, but otherwise the pattern remains largely the same and another round of isolated showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening, with greater focus closer to the coast where greatest moisture will reside.
216 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 ridge in place over the pains with the axis of the ridge now centered over eastern CWA extending north to the Canadian border. Strong capping to north of warm front and very warm/dry conditions to south of it make it very unlikely that any storms will initiate along front. Deeply mixed boundary layer and weak instability will bring potential for high based thunderstorms mainly across western CWA where influence of ridge will be be weakest and heating the strongest.
Upper level trough offshore moving inland tonight into early Sunday.
Fair weather appears likely through midweek as a ridge builds from the southern PLains into New England and brings a warming trend to central IL.
After highs in the lower to middle 90s today, another night with lows in the lower to middle 60s is expected. For tomorrow, persistence prevails with dry conditions and highs in the lower to middle 90s.
By Sunday, mid-level trough is expected to dig south the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley as an associated weak surface front approaches from the north.
Height rises for Sun-Sun nt as the high amplitude ridge over the Great Plains shifts to the Upper MS River Valley.
111 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Cooler weather will be in store for today as a trough continues to move through California.
/22/ Mid morning surface analysis had a >1020mb southwest-northeast oriented ridge just to our northwest that was resulting in a light north to northeast wind this morning. One minor difference will be the influence of a weak upper level trough that could help perturb the low level flow along the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, expect high temperatures today to be slightly warmer than yesterday with lows tonight several degrees below normal under mostly clear skies. Our forecast area will be on the eastern periphery of a mid/upper level ridge and that will keep deep layer dry air across our region.
The front becomes energized slightly by an upper low that moves across the southern Ohio Valley area towards the Mid-Atlantic region during the day. Several models develop convection along a front that reforms and extends southwest from the upper low into eastern Tennessee into extreme northern Alabama Sunday afternoon into the very early evening hours.
Will see breezy/windy conditions, with the highest speeds across central SD. Upper ridge sits right over the Dakotas today as the Pacific upper trough advects its way eastward. By Sunday, the trough shifts eastward into our region. The region will be between high pressure to the east and low pressure over western South Dakota Sunday evening.
This trough axis pivots down into the mid/upper Ohio Valley on Sunday, with a weak cold front associated with it. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Sunday across the northeast half of the region, where readings look to only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The forecast and NBM solution is favored toward a blend/consensus of members, with the upper Low lingering over the Southeast U. Toward the end of the period, the member consensus evolution of the Low is to dissipate its identity/influence here, and otherwise move it farther south/east and away from the PAH FA, as we transition to more zonal westerlies sweeping across the Mississippi River Valley.
However, you can watch on satellite this morning how the leftover clouds and moisture associated with the trough is already starting to produce shower activity south of I-4. An upper level trough will push into the southeast over the later half of the week.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper level ridge axis in place across much of TX, extending nwd into the Central Plains, squeezed between an upper trof axis over the Pac NW and the nern CONUS. High pressure at the sfc over the last several days continues to hold steady. Have introduced some 10 PoPs across our far nrn areas Sunday aftn, as the very remote possibility exists for a tstm or two to develop under the influence of the upper trof axis over the Mid MS River Valley.
126 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper level ridge is centered over the High Plains region today, aiding in the warm dry conditions. Another hot day will be in store for Sunday as the upper level ridge slowly moves eastward.
Temperatures look to top out a little higher than yesterday, with a warmer low level thermal profile sampled on the morning RAOB. /issued 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ The combination of scattered high clouds and intermittent mixing wind is producing less than ideal radiational cooling this morning resulting in a nearly 10 degree variation in temperatures across the region from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Little change in the apparent of the last couple of days with deep ridging extending across much of the central U. As was mentioned in the previous forecast, a somewhat shallow plume of mid level moisture wrapping around the southern periphery of the ridge is expected to result in more low level clouds and even a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across south central Louisiana.
The best overlap between the low RH and the higher winds will be in northwest Oklahoma again tomorrow, and the geography of the Fire Weather Watch still looks good.
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Northeast winds will bring cooler temperatures to central and southeast Illinois today. A cold front has reached just south of the central IL forecast area, stretching from the northern Plains into Kentucky. Progressively cooler air is noted to the northeast, with 10 am temperatures in the low to mid 70s from near Jacksonville into southeast IL, and mid to upper 60s along/north of I-74. Latest surface analysis placed a cold front near a Rushville to Paris line. Northeast winds to provide low humidity and cooler temps than the past few days with highs ranging from the upper 70s northeast of I-74 to the mid 80s over the far southeast CWA.
/Today/ High pressure at the sfc and aloft continue to dominate our weather pattern.
909 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Cooler weather will be in store for today as a trough continues to move through California.
A series of upper level lows will keep the region generally on the cool and wet side. Now, weak band of storms very near center of upper low is moving through Snake River Valley with less convective precipitation stretched on a PWAT axis from near Baker NNW toward Walla Walla. Another upper low may increase coverage of showers and light to mod rain overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
401 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. A mid and upper level trough along the northeast coast weakens tonight leaving the area under near calm to a light steering flow. There will be a large temperature range with the normally cooler locations in the mid 40s and the metro areas in the mid to upper 50s. Several days ago there was uncertainty with the closed upper low that forms at the base of the departing upper trough over the northeast this weekend with the potential for several days of inclement weather.
Satellite imagery shows an upper low over central Idaho rapidly pushing north. The associated cold front over eastern Idaho will push into far western Wyoming later this afternoon. The mainly dry cold front will gradually pull eastward tonight into Sunday morning. Despite the cooler temperatures Sunday, breezy to windy conditions will continue and some areas could again see elevated fire weather conditions. By Sunday night, the upper low shifts northeast away from the area with dry conditions expected. General troughiness will be the story across the region throughout the period. With this broad trough, there is a tight pressure gradient which will bring gusty winds, mainly to the Wind Corridor, throughout the period. The trough will also bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers across northwest areas.
The current versions of the high-resolution models (and in fact most synoptic models) suggest that dewpoints out west need to be reduced a couple of more degrees, which of course brings down the forecast relative humidity this afternoon. Right now, our current forecast wind speeds are on the high end of the guidance envelope, which seems reasonable given the expected mixing and the forecast deepening cyclone over eastern Colorado. Fire weather will be critical through the day today in the northwest with the low humidity and gusty winds.
The only feature worth noting will be an upper low that will settle over the eastern CONUS tomorrow.
1033 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Northeast winds will bring cooler temperatures to central and southeast Illinois today. A cold front has reached just south of the central IL forecast area, stretching from the northern Plains into Kentucky. Progressively cooler air is noted to the northeast, with 10 am temperatures in the low to mid 70s from near Jacksonville into southeast IL, and mid to upper 60s along/north of I-74. Latest surface analysis placed a cold front near a Rushville to Paris line. Northeast winds to provide low humidity and cooler temps than the past few days with highs ranging from the upper 70s northeast of I-74 to the mid 80s over the far southeast CWA.
Tonight and Sunday Canadian high pressure will shift very slowly east through Sunday, allowing for another round of cool temperatures tonight, then increasing southeast winds and a gradual warm-up on Sunday. Lows tonight should only be a few degrees warmer than last night, but still cold enough in north central and far northeast WI for patchy frost. Sunday Night Through Saturday Sunny and dry conditions will persist into midweek for Northeast Wisconsin as an upper level ridge remains in place over the western Great Lakes. The ridge, sandwiched between a cut-off low over the Southeast U. and a broad low pressure trough over the Northwest U.
Relatively quiet weather will continue through the short term period with broad high pressure in control and with H5 ridging aloft.
405 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 High pressure remains inbound from northern Ontario during mid afternoon while providing cool but otherwise pleasant conditions across the region. Satellite imagery depicts this feature moving in from western upper Michigan with a strong circulation but too far removed from the low level frontal zone over the Plains-TN valley for anything more than mid-high cloud production over the Great Lakes. The upper level circulation exits into the Ohio valley Sunday morning and is followed by a short wave ridge that reinforces dry high pressure over the region. The surface air mass does modify slightly with another afternoon of full sun helping temperatures gain some ground into the lower 70s inland from Lake Huron.
152 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Cool, dry weather will prevail for the remainder of the day; isolated shower/thunderstorm may be spotted in West Virginia ridges. Periodic showers are possible south of Pittsburgh tomorrow as an upper-level trough lingers. While the aforementioned surface cold front will be south of the forecast area, convergence and flow up the low- and mid-level frontal boundary will help generate showers late tonight for areas south and east of Pittsburgh. As the upper-level trough mentioned above phases with 500mb closed off low, showers will become heavier south and east of Pittsburgh. On average, a quarter to a half inch of rain is expected near Morgantown/WV ridges. The trough is expected to weaken and drift south late Sunday night as high pressure builds over the Midwest and extends into the Great Lakes.
Plenty of sunshine follows for Sunday with temperatures remaining cooler than normal, but warming considerably from chilly morning readings into the mid to upper 60s.
253 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 An upper level ridge is moving east across the region today, with the ridge axis in MN by tomorrow.
1040 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A slow moving Low will bring widespread rain showers with isolated thunder and cooler temperatures for the weekend.
Our CWA will also remain between mid level ridging to our west and a deepening trough to our east. Under clear skies and a light wind tonight temperatures will bottom out below normal again but, remain several degrees warmer than this morning. Temperatures Sunday are expected to reach the lower 90s at most locations which is slightly warmer than normal. /22/ This coming work week into next Saturday: is still lining up to be rather quiet on the weather front as mid/upper ridging builds over the Plains and expands eastward.
1138 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper ridge axis is centered across the northern Plains. Southwest flow aloft has set up across the northern to central Rockies, ahead of a trough crossing the West Coast into the Great Basin.
A high amplitude H500 ridge over the center CONUS is centered right over the Panhandles with a slight shift to the east as we go into the day on Sunday.
Due to upper level ridging and a strong west to east surface pressure gradient, Sunday will be another warm, breezy and sunny day. Still think any convection will struggle due to the ridging aloft, and left precipitation chances at less than 15%.
Upper-level troughing and mid-level to surface ridging remains across the area today resulting in a mostly clear sky and near seasonably normal temperatures. Already seeing some cu develop across the higher terrain of the mountains, and while precip is unlikely, will have a slight chance of a brief light rain shower across the highest elevations today with the main chance across the mountains of NE TN where ridging is weakest and mid-level height falls will be greatest. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 88 62 83 61 / 0 30 20 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 84 59 81 60 / 0 40 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 84 58 81 59 / 0 40 20 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 79 57 74 56 / 10 70 60 50 30.
Moderate instability will set up ahead of the trough, with adequate shear in place.
By Sunday evening, it will have developed into yet another closed upper Low for the area, settling in near Ashland KY/Huntington WV. Highs on Sunday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today due to the weak cold frontal passage, topping out in the mid to upper 70s for most locations, with a few lower 80s along the Tennessee border.
A mid-latitude trough is currently diving south through the Ohio Valley into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over Florida. The 500 mb height at KEY dropped 40 meters from 12z yesterday to 12z this morning, highlighting the developing weakness in the subtropical ridge.
847 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Local 00z sounding tells the story, with a dry conditions through the entirety of the vertical column as high pressure remains in control. Large area of cool Canadian high pressure remains centered across Ontario into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Broad upper level troughing is holding over the NE US. calm and rather cold mid June night across the Northwoods as that cool Canadian high pressure center shifts into Quebec with pronounced surface ridging holding throughout the Great Lakes region. Eventually, the center will sag into New England, bringing some weak southerly return flow into the region along the backside of the high.
Skies should clear later this evening and remain so into Sunday, with strong high pressure to the northeast of the region. Height rises for Sun-Sun nt as the high amplitude ridge over the Great Plains shifts to the Upper MS River Valley.
617 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. A reinforcing cold front will slip through the area this evening with winds shifting around to the NE. A large area of high pressure will begin to build in from the north overnight. Several days ago there was uncertainty with the closed upper low that forms at the base of the departing upper trough over the northeast this weekend with the potential for several days of inclement weather.
Isolated showers will continue to develop over the Atlantic, and with the easterly flow in the low-levels, some of these will push onshore.
931 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Lowered temperatures a degree or two overnight in the FYV area and in the lower valley areas of southeast Oklahoma given latest guidance and based of this morning's lows.
1020 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. Large area of high pressure continues to build in from the north. Several days ago there was uncertainty with the closed upper low that forms at the base of the departing upper trough over the northeast this weekend with the potential for several days of inclement weather.
An upper level ridge is moving east across the region today, with the ridge axis in MN by tomorrow.
We raised the highs tomorrow, mainly near the mountains. Guidance looks to be not warm enough as we hit the low 90s ahead of the clouds today--Denver should be a little warmer tomorrow while other areas should at least see similar highs with sunshine and wind.
By Sunday evening, it will have developed into yet another closed upper low for the area, settling in near Ashland KY/Huntington WV. Highs on Sunday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today due to the weak cold frontal passage, topping out in the mid to upper 70s for most locations, with a few lower 80s along the Tennessee border.
Low level dry air feeding into area on east/northeast flow off Great Lakes high pressure is yielding high cloud bases and little in the way of measurable rainfall.
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 The upper level ridge will continue to slide eastward and break down through this afternoon.
18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 ridge in place over the pains with the axis of the ridge now centered over eastern CWA extending north to the Canadian border. Strong capping to north of warm front and very warm/dry conditions to south of it make it very unlikely that any storms will initiate along front. Deeply mixed boundary layer and weak instability will bring potential for high based thunderstorms mainly across western CWA where influence of ridge will be be weakest and heating the strongest.
Fair and dry through the period with high pressure passing by to our north.
Some slightly better rain chances will return tomorrow as an upper trough dips out of the Great Lakes into the Midwest. Upper low expected to drop down just northeast of the area on Sunday.
Highs are a bit cooler in the far west, but warming up nicely as expected in central, eastern and southern portions of the area.
A line of showers associated with an upper trough will continue to move through southwest Idaho tonight as it exits southeast Oregon this evening. An upper low near the PacNW coast will move inland and across the ID Panhandle on Sunday, resulting in rain showers (snow showers above 6500 feet) mainly across Baker County and the West Central Idaho mountains.
1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Currently - The Keys reside between broad troughing across the southern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea and a large anticyclone over eastern North America. Strong gusty winds impacted much of the Lower and Middle Keys and torrential rains continue in the eastern Middle Keys. Short Term Update - Broad troughing will remain the dominant feature for the Keys through the overnight period. It will likely take a substantial amount of time for the Lower Keys, having been recently worked over. Dew points will range from the lower to mid 70s. High pressure over eastern North America and broad troughing over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will result in gentle mostly east breezes across Keys waters.
Mainly clear skies through the period with high pressure passing by to our north.
724 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Periodic showers are possible south of Pittsburgh on Sunday as an upper-level trough lingers. Removed evening PoPs in the ridges and lowered cloud cover across much of the region. While the aforementioned surface cold front will be south of the forecast area, convergence and flow up the low- and mid-level frontal boundary will help generate showers late tonight for areas south and east of Pittsburgh. As the upper-level trough mentioned above phases with 500mb closed off low, showers will become heavier south and east of Pittsburgh. On average, a quarter to a half inch of rain is expected near Morgantown/WV ridges. The trough is expected to weaken and drift south late Sunday night as high pressure builds over the Midwest and extends into the Great Lakes.
Continued VFR through Sunday with light winds as high pressure remains nearby. The mid to upper level ridge axis will remain from the central and southern plains into northern Mexico through the period.
High pressure remains inbound from northern Ontario during mid afternoon while providing cool but otherwise pleasant conditions across the region. Satellite imagery depicts this feature moving in from western upper Michigan with a strong circulation but too far removed from the low level frontal zone over the Plains-TN valley for anything more than mid-high cloud production over the Great Lakes. The upper level circulation exits into the Ohio valley Sunday morning and is followed by a short wave ridge that reinforces dry high pressure over the region. The surface air mass does modify slightly with another afternoon of full sun helping temperatures gain some ground into the lower 70s inland from Lake Huron.
Weak ridging over most of the southeast this evening, maintaining a mostly quiet weather pattern. Our CWA will also remain between mid level ridging to our west and a deepening trough to our east. Under clear skies and a light wind tonight temperatures will bottom out below normal again but, remain several degrees warmer than this morning. Temperatures Sunday are expected to reach the lower 90s at most locations which is slightly warmer than normal. /22/ This coming work week into next Saturday: is still lining up to be rather quiet on the weather front as mid/upper ridging builds over the Plains and expands eastward.
Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the area. An upper level ridge remains in place across the Plains while a trough remains over the western states. The lower boundary layer remains mixed tonight so temperatures are only expected to fall into the lower 70s in most areas. With little change in the overall pattern save the thermal axis extending into central Kansas, highs should range from the low to upper 90s across the CWA.
Weak northwest flow will persist across the region through tomorrow as an upper level low drops into the Ohio River Valley. Lows are expected to drop down into the lower 60s near the Tennessee River with upper 60s further west. By Sunday, mid-level trough is expected to dig south the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley as an associated weak surface front approaches from the north.