Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low will pull away from central NC tonight and Tuesday. A strong upper level ridge will build over the Southeast through the remainder of the week. Pesky upper level low has begun push to the east-northeast off the northern coast of NC at mid-afternoon. As the low pulls farther away, subsidence will aid to diminish cloud coverage southwest-northeast this evening. Upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will begin to expand northeast into the southeast U. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to strengthen over our region Tuesday night.
237 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 An upper level ridge remains across the area extending from the Great Lakes south to the lower MS valley. High clouds continue to push in slowly from the west as the moisture encounters the ridge. Weak return flow trying to set up west of high pressure to our east. GFS and NAM diverge Tuesday night, with the GFS showing greater s/wv ridging in the wake of the aforementioned system.
Forecast area remains under southwest flow aloft with upper low camped over Sask. Next wave rotating around upper low will swing into the area later tonight.
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure and the associated dry air mass has dominated the region the last few days resulting in some nice diurnal temperature ranges and warm daytime highs. A positively tilted long wave trof will remain centered through the western U. while the upper ridge axis currently extending through the MS Valley will shift east as the mid Atlantic upper low/trof moves to the northeast off the east coast.
Today Through Tuesday Night A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest.
Mid to upper ridge axis near the central Louisiana coast stretching north to the upper Mississippi River valley and great lakes region will shift east to the central gulf states and Tennessee river valley through Tuesday afternoon. At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure mostly centered along the Mississippi. As for temps have opted to lean generally towards the slightly warmer mav/ecmwf guidance through Tuesday afternoon mostly due to better subsidence in the lower to mid levels along with better consistency with other wfos.
(Today thru Wed) A pronounced upper level ridge axis will be the main weather player thru at least Tuesday evening across the mid state, providing dry conditions and clear to mostly clear skies. Upper level ridge axis will be aided at the surface by the evolution to a Bermuda high pressure pattern by Wed.
8Z subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front situated along a line from KONL to KEAR to KHYS. Aloft broad southwesterly flow was noted ahead of an upper level western conus trough. This trough, as it shifts east, will be a major weather maker for our area by the end of the work week and looks to dominate our weather into the weekend.
High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday weekend as various upper waves move across the area. /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/ High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear to clear skies through the night.
An upper level low will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to interior Northwest California on Tuesday.
248 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast United States over the next seven days while an upper trough digs into the Central Plains.
315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 20Z water vapor imagery continues to show a mean trough over the western U. At the surface, an area of low pressure was analyzed over the OK panhandle with an inverted trough of low pressure extending through eastern NEB. Overall, think convergence along the inverted trough axis to the northwest of the forecast area should be the main focus for redevelopment as low level moisture continues to advect north. Lows tonight should again be in the lower to mid 60s due to cloud cover and the moist airmass remaining over the region.
353 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the northern Great Lakes region. High pressure will remain over the region and settle over eastern Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s in the northwest where some southerly flow may persist.
223 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern Saskatchewan with a trough in the northern rockies, a closed low along the mid atlantic seaboard and a 500 mb ridge over the upper Great Lakes. Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are expected through this evening as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.
Strong surface and upper high pressure ridging prevail over the Arklamiss this afternoon and expect these conditions to continue through tonight.
558 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure off Virginia coast will continue moving northeastward. High pressure will build into the forecast area tonight then move off the southeast coast Tuesday.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern Alta into western MT with several short waves rotating around the system. Upper level ridge over the Great Lakes shifts east through Tue. Thereafter upper ridge is knocked down with trough moving across central and eastern Canada. Upper ridge rebuilds over the Northern Plains Wed with approaching MT/Alta trough. Showalters become negative again Tue with cooler air moving in aloft.
There are actually two troughs (one in the polar jet over MT, the other in the subtropical jet just approaching central CA) that comprise the western trough of the Omega block. Meanwhile, a ridge is blocking any advancement of MCS or other convective activity from the Plains towards the Southeast, while the eastern trough is over New England. 77 (Issued 253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016) Pleasantly warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through tonight as synoptic ridging on the eastern flank of an Omega block continues. In particular, afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate with loss of daytime heating which with decoupling should yield overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. This will mean warm temperatures into the 80s while dewpoints in the low 50s will likely prevail.
The convective environment today is not that great otherwise, with slightly cooler temps and dew points in the 30s and 40s. Prefer the cooler GFS guidance which was a couple degrees cooler than our previous forecast. a relatively dry southwesterly flow aloft will remain over Colorado ahead of an elongated upper trough over the west. The southern branch of the trough will make its way into southern NV by 00Z Thu. a Denver cyclone Tue aftn will generate a boundary that will act as a focus for tstms late Tue aftn/evng.
2 to 3 feet of snow has been recorded over the higher terrain (above 6000 feet) in the Glacier National Park area and also north of Whitefish.
148 PM MST MON MAY 23 2016 A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western States through the weekend. Southwesterly dry flow continues across the Desert Southwest with a large scale upper level trough entrenched across the Western United States.
Focus for convection through the evening hours should be in the vicinity of a Pine Bluffs WY to Alliance NE line, closer to the H25 speed max and the llvl theta-e ridge axis.
Mostly cloudy out west in line with the higher moisture axis, partly cloudy cumulus field to east as temperatures achieve the lower 80s. Texas will remain under the southern belly of the mid to upper level ridge centered over the Midwestern states through mid week.
WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an elongated upper level trough set up across the Intermountain West. A cold front is advancing across central NE into northern KS, which will reach the central sections of our forecast area mid morning. However this may become complicated by the true southward extent of the aforementioned cold front position. Another area of interest will be behind the washed out cold front in the increasingly easterly upslope surface flow along the KS/CO line where the NAM is insistent on isolated supercell development with potential for giant hail, and much less of a tornado threat.
A warmer, more summer-like weather pattern will set up by midweek. With the cool pool aloft well to the east now, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s today under partly sunny skies.
Don't expect dewpoint temperatures to really begin rising until after 12Z Monday so think lows will drop to near dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 50s across most of the area. Southerly flow on the western periphery of the ridge on Monday will begin moistening up the boundary layer. At night, our area should additionally be downstream from where the low level jet sets of the MCS of the night where this feature could either move in late night or during the following morning.
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over the southern Canadian Rockies and the northern United States Rockies and upper level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes Region. 00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in breaking down upper level ridge over the Great Lakes Region and developing southwesterly flow aloft over the central United States.
Unsettled weather will continue through Memorial Day weekend as a trough of low pressure sits entrenched over the western US.
Afternoon highs behind this activity over NW Missouri will be kept to the mid 70s within the rain cooled air with temperatures expected to peak in the lower 80s ahead of this activity.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool, but gradually warmer later in the week.
To explain, they are just west of an upper level ridge that arcs across the Mississippi river valley. The clouds start to spill overtop the flattening ridge then, so we'll see more cloudiness Tuesday than today (Monday). At this writing, it looks like said pcpn chances will peak (in the short term) Tue night into Wed, as the ridge flattens out, southerlies deepen, and pieces of upper energy begin to shoot out of the deepened swly flow aloft, overtop the flattened ridge and across our area/northward. Daytime highs will be in the lower 80s, and upper 50s lows tonight will nudge upward into/thru the 60s for the ensuing nights.
Will see this dissipate into this evening as deep layer ridging makes greater headway east. This will set up an appreciable ridge/valley split tonight along with patchy valley fog once again, with lows bottoming out in the mid 40s in valleys and low to mid 50s on ridgetops. Sunny skies will prevail for Tuesday as high pressure and deep layer subsidence remain in firm control. Building heights/thicknesses and full insolation will spell highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. Return flow will begin to take shape Tuesday evening and night as ridging slips off to the east.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tranquil forecast for the next 36 hours as H5 ridge dominates South Texas. Low pressure across the Permian Basin will interact with high pressure across the eastern U.
343 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will gradually build into the area through tonight and will then move off the Southeast coast by late Tuesday.
Meanwhile in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota, southerly winds ahead of a long wave trough have allowed surface dew points to climb into the 50s and lower 60s. These are developing ahead of a short wave trough moving northeast out of north-central Iowa and in the right entrance region of a 90-knot 250 mb jet. Meanwhile another short wave trough will move to the south of the region. Due to this, kept the highest rain chance north of Interstate 90. On Tuesday, the models continue to show that a weak trough will settle south across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There is very little convergence along this trough.
A secondary Pacific low should carve a trough across the western tier of the US during the weekend. Models are trending a littler further south with the Pacific low/trough.
653 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will gradually build into the area through tonight and will then move off the Southeast coast by late Tuesday.
308 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 The cold front that moved through last night has stalled southeast of the forecast area. Tuesday looks a lot more interesting as a low pressure system deepens over eastern Colorado during the day and lifts northeast into the evening. Southeast flow ahead of the low will draw in rich moisture, with dew points in the 50s and 60s across the area. Bulk shear will also be sufficient to support large hail with enough in the low levels to consider the threat for a tornado or two. Initiation should be west of the forecast area but storms will eventually transition into this favorable environment with a focus for convection expected along the warm front as it lifts north into Nebraska. A warm front will be dradped near the Nebr/Kansas border early Tuesday evening.
High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle of the week.
Weak high pressure filling in behind weakening frontal trough out over the Atlantic will provide a light onshore flow. A mid level impulse is indicted rotating through the trough along the east coast, so cannot discount these higher PoPs. Dry pattern continues as a weak upper level low begins to evolve and drop southeast toward the Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure ridge to the north will allow onshore flow to develop and slowly increase.
The main driver of the weather over northeast Montana tonight will continue to be the low pressure system centered over southern Saskatchewan. As this rotates around the retreating upper low.
Strongest isentropic lift on the 310K surface is along nose of the low-level jet, so thinking highest probabilities for storms will be in central/south-central Kansas. Clusters of elevated storms may linger over eastern Kansas into midday or early afternoon Tuesday, with isentropic lift then diminishing thereafter, as the low-level jet backs/weakens.
The region will continue under the influence of a low pressure trof today. Latest water vapor loop shows an upper level low drifting slowly eastward across southern Saskatchewan at this time.
There are actually two troughs (one in the polar jet over MT, the other in the subtropical jet just approaching central CA) that comprise the western trough of the Omega block. Meanwhile, a ridge is blocking any advancement of MCS or other convective activity from the Plains towards the Southeast, while the eastern trough is over New England. 77 Pleasantly warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through tonight as synoptic ridging on the eastern flank of an Omega block continues. In particular, afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate with loss of daytime heating which with decoupling should yield overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. This will mean warm temperatures into the 80s while dewpoints in the low 50s will likely prevail.
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Early this afternoon, an upper-level low pressure system was in place over southern Saskatchewan with a trough extending across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level ridge extends from South Texas to the Great Lakes. The dryline will stretch southward from the low this afternoon, likely along a Claude-Pampa-Slapout line by late afternoon. This will keep the best moisture and instability axis focused along a corridor from the Low Rolling Plains of Texas through western Oklahoma (clipping the southeastern TX Panhandle). As an upper level trough digs into the western conus mid week, the area will see a break from precip.
CAPE values between 1000-3300 J/kg are progged, with the highest values over the far northern to northeastern plains.
327 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will continue through the remainder of the week with highs expected to reach the lower 80s.
With the low level boundary stalling, moisture along/east of I-29 never really gets scoured out through the day, and with light surface flow and partial clearing, could see some fog develop early Tuesday morning. However, warm front is expected to lift north across the plains approaching the southern fringes of the forecast area in the late afternoon hours.
The lower conditions will return to the same areas tonight. Weak low pressure over the coastal waters will persist into Tuesday. then weaken as offshore high pressure builds into the area.
A warmer, more summer-like weather pattern will set up for midweek and beyond. Broadening out on the synoptic scale, upper level low still parked over the mid Atlantic coast with the forecast area in a deep NE flow. However as the upper level low to the south pushes NE additional showers associated with this feature will develop and move up the coast later this evening into the overnight. The upper level low continues to push NE through Tuesday moving into southern New England. Highs will generally range from the low 70s east where there will be more cloud cover to the upper 70s west.
245 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will provide mainly clear and quiet weather tonight with seasonably cool temperatures expected. Moisture pivoting north and west around departing offshore low pressure will bring a renewed threat of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and early evening, mainly across Vermont. High pressure will provide mainly clear skies and light winds to the region again tonight. On Tuesday short-term models continue to show good consistency showing a filling upper low will drift northeasterly along the northeastern seaboard through the day. High temperatures will be similar to today from the northern Champlain Valley west into northern New York (upper 70s to lower 80s) with slightly cooler readings (70s) further east where coverage of afternoon clouds and showers will be greater.
Southwest flow aloft remains over the region through mid week however as the upper low is expected to drift over Montana/Southern Canada.
Afternoon highs behind this activity over NW Missouri will be kept to the mid 70s within the rain cooled air with temperatures expected to peak in the lower 80s ahead of this activity. For tonight and into Tuesday, the low-level jet will favor convection over central Kansas overnight.
Tomorrow will be similar to today in that broad troughing will still support showers in the afternoon.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern Saskatchewan with a trough in the northern rockies, a closed low along the mid atlantic seaboard and a 500 mb ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The pattern will be dominated by a large trough across the west half of the U. , and a large ridge across the east half of the U. Upper MI will be near the top of the ridge, so any energy will produce showers and some thunderstorms.
Tomorrow will be similar to today in that broad troughing will still support the chance for showers in the afternoon.
CU field remains thick this morning due to moisture stuck in the lowest levels. /issued 414 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb ridging will be steadily strengthening over south Texas and northern Mexico through Mon and Tues. The higher terrain of northeast Mexico may provide enough orographic lift during the max heating on both Mon and Tues to fire some conv to our southwest. The NAM/GFS and ECWMF guidance all place pops through the short range period in the single digits and will stick with these values considering the strength of the 500 mb ridge axis. The 1000-500 mb thickness values will be gradually increasing at the 500 mb ridge axis strengthens.
HRRR model indicated the higher rain chances to shift east across North Louisiana and South Arkansas from East and Northeast Texas. An upper-trough across the west coast will swing east and deepen into a closed low across the desert southwest by midweek.
With a low and mid level theta-e ridge axis over southeast Wyoming, expect isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon south of a Rawlins to Douglas line.
1214 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Upper level flow remains southwest with a trough in the western United states lobbing pieces of energy into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front marches east across the CWA with thunderstorm outflow helping to propagate the front east.
Farther west however, warmer low-levels resulting in higher mixed-layer instability of 4000-5000 J/KG will be able to ignite strong and severe storms across the Big Bend of Texas and along the Burros Mountains. Storms should initiate farther NW of the area and on the higher terrain where the capping is weaker and then move towards Val Verde/Edwards late afternoon/early evening. Tuesday will feature slightly stronger H5 ridging as the dryline retreats farther westward. With ridging and capping in place, rain and thunder storm chances will be lower.
658 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build across the region through tonight.
246 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure near the Southeast Virginia coast today will continue moving northeastward. High pressure moving into the forecast area from the west today will be over the area tonight and off the southeast coast Tuesday.
305 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure will slowly move north off the coast tonight through Tuesday and will dissipate over the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night.
It may take most of the day to rid the region of the lower clouds, still with more than enough low-level moisture in place we will more than likely end up mostly cloudy again. Mid-level ridging will be directly overhead with sufficient capping so we keep the forecast dry at this time.
1106 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Shallow cold front was dropping southward through the plains this morning, bringing a shift to north winds and slightly higher dewpoints to most areas along and east of I-25. By early Tue morning, cold front will slosh back southward through the plains, with perhaps enough low level moisture for some stratus along the KS border toward sunrise.
244 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build across the region through tonight.
140 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the forecast area from Hill City to Gove. the Tri State region will sit between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the country. with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the rockies/western half of the country.
The sharp upper ridge which brought several warm and dry days to the area is gradually breaking down and shifting east. But the upstream trough over the western CONUS is expected to remain in place. Tonight and Tuesday Another warm day was noted across the region with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s away from the bay and lake. For tonight, a cold front will approach from the west.
Southwest flow aloft will remain perhaps slightly more backed as low pressure moves from central California into the southwest. This will come from a slow moving trough across the southwestern US this week.
The sun should shine this afternoon and even though a slightly cooler air mass overhead, highs still rebound nicely, into the mid and upper 70s. Tuesday through the remainder of the week looks to be quite active as multiple low pressure systems track across the central Plains.
A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western States through the weekend. Southwesterly dry flow continues across the Desert Southwest with a large scale upper level trough entrenched across the Western United States.