Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The chance for showers will continue through the night as the upper trough slowly slides east through the state, with no thunderstorms expected overnight. Dry air and clearing skies in the far west will let temperatures drop into the lower 30s, while staying in the lower 40s in the far eastern part of the forecast area. As the trough aloft progresses further southeast on Saturday, there is a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in central and eastern North Dakota, ending by early evening. Temperatures are expected to be above average, with highs ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Northwest flow continues into the weekend This will send a couple weak mid-level waves of low pressure/small-end shower chances toward the area tonight through Saturday night. End result for tonight will be scattered to broken altocumulus cloud cover with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
Expect a cold front to provide a shift in wind direction through this evening. The winds will turn to the northwest at all sites by this afternoon behind a cold front. /issued 448 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Dry conditions will continue, for another 24 hours, and another cold front will push south, across West Central Texas, today. Gusty winds, from the northwest today, will bring drier air into West Central Texas, along with slightly cooler temperatures. Highs today, mainly across the Big Country, will be close to yesterday's highs, but still warmer than usual late April highs. Elsewhere today, high in the lower to mid 90s look likely. Then, as drier and cooler air settles over West Central Texas, expect lows tonight at or a few degrees cooler than usual late April lows.
A cold front will follow and low level convergence will increase across our extreme SE/E during the late afternoon.
237 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building slowly eastward from the Pacific coast into the Intermountain West. Saturday-Saturday night: With relatively little change in the overall pattern, expect conditions similar albeit slightly warmer conditions.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ This afternoon, the upper level trough is approaching the area from the west while the dryline is beginning to take shape over North Texas. Meanwhile, low level moisture continues to filter into the Four State Region with dewpoints increasing into the lower 60s over and near our western sections, and instability will not be an issue as MLCAPE has already reached 1500-2000 J/kg in these same areas. Most of this activity will occur between 4pm and midnight as the upper level trough and surface front race through the area. Skies will become mostly clear during the day tomorrow and will be quite pleasant with highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows Saturday night will range from the upper 40s north of I-30 to the low to mid 50s elsewhere.
Most of the area will drop to near 40 degrees tonight before rebounding nicely to the lower 70s on Saturday afternoon.
Isolated returns on radar indicate that some precipitation may still be falling in the higher terrain. Temperatures have ended up a bit cooler today compared to yesterday as expected, given the passage of the trough. The next weak trough approaches this evening under a northwest flow regime in place over the central and northern Rockies. Favorable upslope flow as well as chilly temps aloft (700mb values in the -4 to -5 range) will result in some snow accumulations in the higher elevation of the Flat Top, Park and Elkhead ranges. Warm-air advection will commence over much of eastern Utah and western Colorado, and temperatures will recover from Friday and end up 5-8 degrees warmer across the western slope. Canyon country of eastern Utah will top out in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies.
After a rather tranquil night time period, an upper low will move from the Missouri Valley into the Tennessee Valley by 12Z Sat bringing a surface reflection along with it.
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across central Illinois this evening as low pressure approaches from the west.
These clear conditions will linger thru the evening, but will be short lived as a quick-moving low pressure system shifts from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley overnight. Expect an overcast sky to redevelop by Midnight, with isolated to scattered light showers increasing through the forecast area late tonight into early Saturday morning ahead of a cold front. Our attention will quickly turn to the aforementioned low pressure system that will shift into the lower Ohio Valley that will push a cold front across the region on Saturday.
150 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Hot weather will result from high pressure aloft and some offshore winds today. Flow turns onshore this weekend for slightly cooler weather.
Rainfall should decrease from northwest to southeast through the overnight hours as the midlevel trough axis progresses east of the forecast area.
Similarly to today, temperatures will be in the 60s over the lower elevations. High temps on Sun are expected to be several degrees above average, with highs in the 70s across most of the plains, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the high valleys, and mostly 60s in Teller County. The high valleys should see highs on Wed in the 70s, and by Fri should be in the mid and upper 70s, with a few lower 80s possible.
Skies are sunny across all of Southeast Texas so far today with mid- afternoon temperatures ranging from around 90 degrees at several inland locations to the low 80s at the coast (today's record highs are 93 at CLL, 92 at IAH, 90 at HOU and 87 at GLS). We are waiting for possible shower and thunderstorm development near and to the north of our far northern counties along and ahead of an approaching cold front late this afternoon through early this evening. For the rest of the weekend, benign weather will continue as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 73 51 65 46 / 20 70 30 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 73 52 61 44 / 10 80 40 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 52 72 51 61 43 / 10 90 50 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 68 50 58 41 / 10 80 70 40 40.
349 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Some showers have begun to develop in eastern Arkansas this afternoon ahead of a deepening trough over the Plains. Rain chances will finally come to an end Saturday evening as the low-pressure system moves to our east.
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop soon across northeast Oklahoma just ahead of a cold front, with the activity building south into southeast Oklahoma over the next 2-3 hours. The biggest limiting factor for tornadoes is the lack of deep low level moisture, although surface dewpoints may reach the lower 60s near the Red River just ahead of the storms.
A very mild and pleasant afternoon ongoing with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s, while humidity values remain on the low side with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. Cool front extends southwest from the low, with a warm front or old boundary extending through east Texas into the Gulf waters. Expecting dewpoints to rise into the mid to upper 60s prior to the cold frontal passage. Dry and very pleasant weather pattern returns for the weekend as high pressure becomes reestablished.
However, this low pressure will produce widespread showers mainly south of highway 36 tonight. North of Missouri River including the Metro area the atmosphere is cooler and more stable so stronger storms not as likely.
259 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building slowly eastward from the Pacific coast into the Intermountain West. Saturday-Saturday night: With relatively little change in the overall pattern, expect conditions similar albeit slightly warmer conditions.
854 AM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Hot weather will result from high pressure aloft and some offshore winds today. Flow turns onshore this weekend for slightly cooler weather.
226 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Increasing clouds tonight ahead of a deepening upper level disturbance over the lower Ohio valley with rain showers over northwest Indiana possible toward daybreak. Highs Saturday afternoon will range from the low 50s in rain cooled areas to the lower 60s in central Indiand and western Ohio. Upper trough through ern KS this aftn will sharpen considerably into wrn KY by this time tomorrow before nrn stream disturbance phases Sat night. Thereafter based on swd swing of upper low see little reason to not adjust pop gradient strongly sewd Sat night and shrink prior shower mention Sun morning.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with highs on Saturday in the lower to mid 60s. Westerly flow aloft dominates the early period before a ridge builds in during the second half of the week.
348 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 A strong upper level disturbance will exit the high plains tonight, resulting in decreasing clouds with the loss of daytime heating. An increase in mid level cloud may prevent temperatures from getting close to the freezing point in far western Kansas, with mid to upper 30s more likely there.
The cooler airmass will continue working in overnight with a seasonally cool night on the way.
This will usher a fairly weak cold front through the RGV late Sat. This will bring a bit of a break to the region from the high heat that the region is experiencing today.
Seasonably mild temperatures continue through Saturday (though clouds/precip may keep temps a bit cooler in our west than the last few days). Cooler temps behind the system Tue night into Wed. There are good indications that a decent ridge will start to build over the region for Thu and Fri moving temps trough the 60s and toward that 70 degree mark.
Much of the shower activity has diminished with a few isolated showers over the lower elevations and snow showers over the mountains still occurring. We expect the diminishing trend to continue over the next few hours, with the region going precipitation free after midnight, as an upper ridge builds into the Northern Rockies.
As our aviation model data was not too keen on the idea, I chose to restrict mention to patchy and locations to the lower river valleys. Saturday, a warm ridge of high pressure will keep any precipitation away from our region and allow our NE Montana temperatures to rebound up to near 70 again.
A cold front approaches on Saturday, potentially keeping MVFR ceilings through the day. This will usher a fairly weak cold front through the RGV late Sat. This will bring a bit of a break to the region from the high heat that the region is experiencing today.
520 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building slowly eastward from the Pacific coast into the Intermountain West. Saturday-Saturday night: With relatively little change in the overall pattern, expect conditions similar albeit slightly warmer conditions.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ The cold front has exited the region as of 830 PM, taking all storms with it. Dry/cool air advection and increasing large scale subsidence will result in a mostly clear and cooler night and a sunny and seasonably warm day on Saturday with highs in the 70s.
If one looks closely enough, you can see through the high clouds on satellite imagery. A low out in the Gulf of Alaska will bring a cold front through the region on Saturday. Fog will again be in the cards as clearing skies, high pressure, and recent rainfall aid in fog formation.
/issued 349 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020/ Some showers have begun to develop in eastern Arkansas this afternoon ahead of a deepening trough over the Plains. Rain chances will finally come to an end Saturday evening as the low-pressure system moves to our east.
613 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Leading part of complex trough digging through the Plains resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, most concentrated near a subtle inverted trough back through far southeast SD. For tonight, after the diminishing of showers early on, will be quiet until we start to feel influence from the upstream trough digging into eastern MT and western ND late this afternoon.
Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than today.
A weak cold front and weather system will approach from the west during the afternoon hours and could bring showers to DLS.
A strong upper level disturbance will exit the high plains tonight, resulting in decreasing clouds with the loss of daytime heating. An increase in mid level cloud may prevent temperatures from getting close to the freezing point in far western Kansas, with mid to upper 30s more likely there.
Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building slowly eastward from the Pacific coast into the Intermountain West. Saturday-Saturday night: With relatively little change in the overall pattern, expect conditions similar albeit slightly warmer conditions.
Southerly winds 5-10 KT can be expected in advance of a cold front that will move through the area between 06-12Z. A very mild and pleasant afternoon ongoing with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s, while humidity values remain on the low side with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. Cool front extends southwest from the low, with a warm front or old boundary extending through east Texas into the Gulf waters. Expecting dewpoints to rise into the mid to upper 60s prior to the cold frontal passage. Dry and very pleasant weather pattern returns for the weekend as high pressure becomes reestablished.
420 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Leading part of complex trough digging through the Plains resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, most concentrated near a subtle inverted trough back through far southeast SD. For tonight, after the diminishing of showers early on, will be quiet until we start to feel influence from the upstream trough digging into eastern MT and western ND late this afternoon.
752 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across central Illinois this evening as low pressure approaches from the west.
/issued 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020/ A cold front moved across the area earlier today shown mainly by gusty northwest winds as the colder air is still to the north. Winds will shift from the northeast tonight as high pressure builds south and that is when the colder air will filter in with tomorrow's highs only reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s in most locations.
Rain chances in the northeast however, look to continue until noon as the upper level closed low is a little slow to lift out. In the wake of the cold front, drier air will move in and temperatures will be cooler than normal in the north but slightly warmer than normal in the south.
649 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 (This evening through Saturday) An upper trough currently across the Central High Plains will be digging into Oklahoma in the next few hours and through the evening hours, providing the upper support for storms to begin firing up soon across portions of northcentral into eastcentral Oklahoma. Being on the back side of the cold front, tonight should be dry and a little bit cooler and breezy as we tap into air originating from the Central High Plains.
659 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Increasing clouds tonight ahead of a deepening upper level disturbance over the lower Ohio valley with rain showers over northwest Indiana possible toward daybreak. Highs Saturday afternoon will range from the low 50s in rain cooled areas to the lower 60s in central Indiana and western Ohio. Upper trough through ern KS this aftn will sharpen considerably into wrn KY by this time tomorrow before nrn stream disturbance phases Sat night. Thereafter based on swd swing of upper low see little reason to not adjust pop gradient strongly sewd Sat night and shrink prior shower mention Sun morning.
A more significant upper trough will work into the area Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing a somewhat better chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
There is some fire weather concerns in our southwestern forecast area where the RH values will be the lowest and where they didn't get as much rain today.
No changes to the fact that fair and warmer weather with some gusty winds will dominate Saturday's weather story.
00Z upper air analysis indicates a mid-level trough over Kansas, Eastern Oklahoma, and Northeast Texas with GOES-16 satellite trends have shown convective development along this mid-level trough axis. /issued 349 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020/ Some showers have begun to develop in eastern Arkansas this afternoon ahead of a deepening trough over the Plains. Rain chances will finally come to an end Saturday evening as the low-pressure system moves to our east.
Some mid-level cloud cover is moving into the western half of the area this evening, and temperatures are steadily falling into the low 60s and upper 50s.
As this system moves closer, the warm front stays to our south, but the low-level jet up around 850-mb will help to advect in a warmer, more unstable air mass aloft. While the best elevated instability will generally be along the nose of the low-level jet over central/northern Tennessee, we could still see enough instability over northern Alabama and south Middle tennessee for a few rumbles of thunder. Our attention will quickly turn to the aforementioned low pressure system that will shift into the lower Ohio Valley that will push a cold front across the region on Saturday.
Though instability(CAPE)values aren't on the higher end of the scale there is still enough and combined with mid-level wind shear, an isolated storm or 2 that does cross the state border and the MS river may become strong to severe.
An upper trough was advancing east across the Gulf of Alaska during Friday afternoon, while downstream, a ridge was building over the coastal CONUS. Skies have subsequently cleared beneath the ridge across most of NWRN CA, with the exception of Del Norte County, where occasional radar echoes had been observed during the morning and mid day periods. A frontal boundary associated with the previously mentioned upper trough is forecast to advance east and south tonight, and then dissipate as it approaches the Del Norte County coast.
As this system moves closer, the warm front stays to our south, but the low-level jet up around 850-mb will help to advect in a warmer, more unstable air mass aloft. While the best elevated instability will generally be along the nose of the low-level jet over central/northern Tennessee, we could still see enough instability over northern Alabama and south Middle Tennessee for a few rumbles of thunder. Our attention will quickly turn to the aforementioned low pressure system that will shift into the lower Ohio Valley that will push a cold front across the region on Saturday.
Gusty w-nw winds will occur behind cold front tonight with MVFR ceilings spreading over much of the area. /Issued 353 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020/ Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop soon across northeast Oklahoma just ahead of a cold front, with the activity building south into southeast Oklahoma over the next 2-3 hours. The biggest limiting factor for tornadoes is the lack of deep low level moisture, although surface dewpoints may reach the lower 60s near the Red River just ahead of the storms.
Strong low level wind fields combined with a wake high pressure area behind the stronger convection early today allowed increased winds above guidance across the central/nrn marine zones into this evening.
956 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low located over northeast MN. The next upper low was in tow over far northeast MT. Low level theta- e axis was located under a cold pool aloft from the upper low. However instabilities will remain overnight tonight with lift from MT upper low. Seasonably mild temperatures continue through Saturday (though clouds/precip may keep temps a bit cooler in our west than the last few days). Cooler temps behind the system Tue night into Wed. There are good indications that a decent ridge will start to build over the region for Thu and Fri moving temps trough the 60s and toward that 70 degree mark.
621 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across central Illinois this evening as low pressure approaches from the west.
/NEW/ /Remainder of Tonight through Saturday Night/ Quiet weather is expected through the period as high pressure builds into North Texas and north winds usher in cooler and drier air. Skies should remain mostly clear with low temperatures in the lower 50s.
This will allow the leeside trough in the low levels to deepen and subsequent pressure gradient to increase.
High pressure aloft will gradually build inland across the Great Basin Saturday. This high pressure will weaken on Sunday, allowing for some shower activity during the afternoon and early evening. High pressure will then strengthen once again through midweek, bringing very warm temperatures to the state.
However, this low pressure will produce widespread showers mainly south of highway 36 tonight. North of Missouri River including the Metro area the atmosphere is cooler and more stable so stronger storms not as likely. Sunday looks quiet with ridging over the area and nice temperatures near 70 in the afternoon.
Winds have shifted to the north across most locations this evening, and are expected to do so at all sites as a surface cold front moves offshore overnight. Cigs and visibilities should remain within VFR thresholds for the duration of the TAF period as cooler and drier air enters the area behind the departing front. Skies are sunny across all of Southeast Texas so far today with mid- afternoon temperatures ranging from around 90 degrees at several inland locations to the low 80s at the coast (today's record highs are 93 at CLL, 92 at IAH, 90 at HOU and 87 at GLS). We are waiting for possible shower and thunderstorm development near and to the north of our far northern counties along and ahead of an approaching cold front late this afternoon through early this evening.
00Z upper air analysis indicates a mid-level trough over Kansas, Eastern Oklahoma, and Northeast Texas with GOES-16 satellite trends have shown convective development along this mid-level trough axis. /issued 658 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020/ Some showers have begun to develop in eastern Arkansas this afternoon ahead of a deepening trough over the Plains. Rain chances will finally come to an end Saturday evening as the low-pressure system moves to our east.
Warming will occur ahead of the front with temperatures reaching the lower 70s in some valley locations, including the Treasure Valley. A ridge will build into the region on Sunday with mostly clear skies and light winds.
A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and may potentially maintain MVFR ceilings through late morning. A cold front approaches on Saturday, potentially keeping MVFR ceilings through the day. This will usher a fairly weak cold front through the RGV late Sat. This will bring a bit of a break to the region from the high heat that the region is experiencing today.
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Rain returns this evening and will continue through Sunday, with the passage of low pressure. A stacked low pressure system will move into the lower Ohio River Valley region today. Showers will develop late this afternoon along a warm front which will swing through the southern half of the region late in the day. Elevated instability will increase south of the warm front late this afternoon and evening as well, which could allow for an isolated thunderstorm to develop.