Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a result, highs will be similar or a little warmer than yesterday. A little warmer airmass and a little wind will make lows a little warmer in most spots. Only minor changes to the forecast this morning, for existing clouds this morning, slightly warmer highs in the northeast corner, slightly cooler lows in the mountain valleys tonight, and a bit more wind over the ridges. In the mountains, enough mid level moisture will advect into the state by the afternoon for a chance of snow showers in the afternoon, especially along the higher southwest facing slopes of 31 and 33. Highs will climb into the 60s as downslope intensifies with the development of a lee trough.
High temperatures today to climb into the mid 70s with overnight lows forecast to fall into the lower 50s. Low temperatures on Sunday night to range from the mid 50s across northeast Louisiana to the lower 60s across deep East Texas.
This southerly flow will allow an increase in high temperatures from the 50s today to the 50s and low 60s for Sunday as a warm front slides in.
With a building thermal ridge over the Plains working its way east, temperatures will remain well above normal today.
/Issued 408 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ Closed upper low over Baja today will track east across northern Mexico and the southwestern states and will weaken into an open wave by tonight.
602 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 A weakening area of high pressure will remain across the region through today.
Center of the high will remain along the NE/KS border providing light and variable winds (mostly north this morning, flipping to southerly in the afternoon). Cooler model solutions limit highs over the central Kansas counties to the mid/upper 50s, while a broad near 60 degree average high across the forecast area is not unreasonable. Overnight lows ought to be a few degrees warmer tonight. Most raw model and MOS output is consistent with keeping above freezing temperatures for Sunday morning's lows, and as warm as around 40 degrees near the OK line and the souther central Kansas counties. More breezy south winds and warmer temperatures are expected Sunday morning, resulting in afternoon highs well into the 70s over most of the area.
High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather and mild afternoons through the weekend. An approaching strong frontal system will bring showers and perhaps a few storms to the area, along with a drastic pattern change as temperatures turn markedly colder and large scale troughing sets up over the Midwest. Quiet and mild weather expected again today under the influence of high pressure. Should see the low to mid 50s across central Indiana today.
358 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2017 Upper level analysis has near zonal flow across the CONUS with very weak ridging across the northern Plains and a trof just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central Plains, with a weak trof across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Weak ridging will slowly shift east this weekend as the Pac NW trof moves onshore tonight. West to southwest boundary layer flow ahead of this trof will continue to advect warm air into the region, with above average highs today and Sunday, in the 50s and lower 60s.
853 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure through the weekend.
Continued mild today with small chances of light precip this High Impact Weather Potential. Weak moisture-starved area of low pressure is currently centered over the arrowhead of Minnesota. Strengthening WAA is holding temps above freezing (and in some locations well above freezing) for much of our area. A few locations in interior Northern Lower Michigan have dipped below freezing (i. High pressure will slide back into Michigan this afternoon and tonight in the wake of the departing low.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 20s. The broad h500 westerly flow for much of November will give way to a Ridge-Trough pattern allowing the arctic air to move south. Although models have been fairly benign as far as precipitation up until today, the GFS now develops a closed upper low along the strong baroclinic zone across Wyoming-South Dakota-Minnesota tracks this low northeast.
Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s across much of the area with overnight lows between 55 and 65.
609 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure through the weekend.
The 7 am surface analysis showed a weak ridge across much of the eastern CONUS with very light winds across our forecast area. The 500 mb flow was mostly zonal across the CONUS, with just a few, weak short wave troughs well removed from our region.
/issued 341 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ Upper pattern has a flat ridge stretching across the country with a cut off low over Baja. By Sunday this low will move east and weaken opening up into a trough as it moves into NM/TX. At the same time another trough will move ashore the NW coast.
With weak high pressure to our east and a trough just starting to develop over the Northern Rockies, there is not much pressure gradient over the region. West to southwest winds should bring in some slightly warmer air into the region, and even light speeds should allow for at least some mixing. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low beginning to deepen off the northwest coast. This low is forecasted to move onshore Saturday and into Sunday, progressing over the Rockies by Sunday evening. The lee cyclone is expected to mature and move northeastwards towards the Great Lakes region, bringing precipitation chances along and northward of the warm front.
The upper low will slowly weaken as it tracks E-NE across northwest NM today and West Texas Sunday.
650 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure overhead will maintain dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures through the weekend. Highs today will generally range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
We should see improvement in the fog by mid-morning as the low-level inversion breaks. Plenty of cloud cover is anticipated on Sunday, but temperatures will continue to remain above normal given warm, southerly flow in the low-levels.
Weak ridging aloft will prevail across the high plains today. A potent Pacific low pressure system will move into the northwest CONUS tonight and intensify Sunday as it approaches WY. Precipitation in the form of valley rain/high elevation snow will develop by Sunday afternoon and increase in coverage and intensity while spreading east into the high plains by Sunday evening.
Signs point to phasing these two jets as early as Sun as very strong jet stream and upper level trough crash ashore the western Conus. Normal highs for early Dec are in the low 30s. Into tonight, high pressure over Ohio Valley ridges toward Upper Great Lakes.
500 mb ridging will remain in control over the RGV for today and tonight which will maintain a pretty stable atms. The NAM/GFS and ECMWF maxes and mins for this weekend are in reasonable agreement but will likely lean on the warmer side temp guidance through Sun due to the increasing southeasterly surface flow.
As the winds turn to the south tonight, there will be a little warm advection and temperatures should be a little warmer than currently. expect there to be enough warming ahead of the upper level system and associated cold front to send most locations into the 60s by early afternoon.
High pressure will push across the area today and tonight as a weak trough of low pressure exits to the east later this morning.
Highs today will climb into the lower 60s at most locations with middle 60s in far southwestern Missouri.
A low pressure system will clip the Yosemite area on Sunday with a small threat of precipitation. Strong high pressure will then prevail off the Northern California and Pacific Northwest coast through mid week as weak low pressure forms off the Southern California coast. In the overall weather pattern models area now slow and farther north with the incoming Pacific trough. Water vapor imagery shows the current center of low pressure out near 45N/135W and moving to the southeast.
Expect this low to inch ESE during the day today so temperatures may be a bit tricky this afternoon. Further north over the Rockies, a fairly deep trough will begin to dig. As the previously mentioned trough crosses the central CONUS Mon afternoon a fairly impressive cold front will dive south.
Initially, the zonal flow will start to amplify as troughing takes shape over the west with downstream ridging over the Midwest for today and tonight. This ridging will then move off to the east Sunday with the flow turning to the southwest ahead of the storm system as it progresses into the central Rockies.
A winter storm system along with a fast-moving cold front will bring rain and snow showers to Nevada Sunday. Mountains and higher elevations will see the highest snow accumulations.
Showers will decrease Sunday and end Sunday night as high pressure builds.
High pressure building near the West Coast will bring continued dry weather late in the week, with temperatures rising back to near normal.
For the rest of the day, temperatures will warm back into the lower 80s across much of South Texas with moisture on the climb. Moisture then increases across the northwestern Gulf and the Texas Coastal Plains tonight through Sunday due to a developing coastal trough. For now, maintained mainly shower activity, but as moisture increases in the mid- levels, isolated elevated activity may throw out a lightning strike or two as the trough swings east. With the increase in moisture, overnight lows will also show a warming trend, with temperatures tonight in the low to mid 60s.
A short wave trof passing through the area in the Midnight to 6 AM window of time early today is bringing mid and high clouds to the area, and an increase in south winds.
The RAP model was a few degrees cooler than the HRRR models. The high clouds blowing off the Laramie and Big Horn ranges this morning should dissipate. Generally clear skies are expected this afternoon with light southwest winds developing associated with low pressure tracking through Srn Canada. This was a degree or two warmer than the straight guidance blend. A new area of low pressure will form on the nrn high plains and this should cause southwest winds to strengthen across Nebraska toward morning.
411 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2017 Early morning satellite imagery reveals some mid level cloud cover over the central and northern mountains as a bit of moisture remains in the wake of a weak trough. The 12Z model run this morning highlighted decent snowfall amounts as the upper level trough and cold front moved through. while moisture will increase ahead of the cold front on Sunday, once the front moves through the moisture lowers very quickly. Up north, 700mb circulation will eventually close off and become a closed low and cause some lift but this all remains over Wyoming.
A weak trough will continue to pass over northern Wisconsin this morning to shift winds to more westerly and depart clouds. High pressure ridge to drift over the area today under the zonal flow. Upper heights begin to build over the area tonight into Sunday as a deepening upper trough drops into northwest states. Sunday max temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than Saturday, but could go a bit higher if clouds are delayed.
957 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 A weakening area of high pressure will remain across the region through today.
348 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2017 Upper level analysis has near zonal flow across the CONUS with very weak ridging across the northern Plains and a trof just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central Plains, with a weak trof across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Weak ridging will slowly shift east this weekend as the Pac NW trof moves onshore tonight. West to southwest boundary layer flow ahead of this trof will continue to advect warm air into the region, with above average highs today and Sunday, in the 50s and lower 60s.
Surface wise, an expansive region of high pressure is covering most of the eastern United States and down the Sunshine State.
By Sunday a low pressure system moving across the great basin. While this system is not expected to impact Northern Arizona, the cold front associated with this will impact Northern Arizona.
By Sunday a low pressure system moving across the Great Basin. While this system is not expected to impact northern Arizona, the cold front associated with this will impact northern Arizona.
504 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2017 Early morning satellite imagery reveals some mid level cloud cover over the central and northern mountains as a bit of moisture remains in the wake of a weak trough.
Highest coverage concentration for showers/ISOLD-SCT storms remains south of Melbourne over ECFL, which will generally be south/east of the approaching low pressure. A low funnel cloud/waterspout potential will exist again today across ECFL due to close proximity to the low. Weak tropical low pressure along the west- central FL coast forecast to slowly drift into the central peninsula by this evening, then near/north of the Cape along the east coast by daybreak Sat morning.
High pressure extends from the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Skies are clear with temps in the lower to mid 60s across the region this morning. High pressure will continue across the region with below normal temperatures and low humidities.
See appropriate TCV and HLS products for emergency information, and NHC products for expected track and cyclone behavior after it makes landfall. Once the storm makes landfall, its future holds considerable uncertainty as it stalls between two high pressure systems and along a stationary front.
Canadian high pressure will continue to extend down into Tennessee through the weekend. Cooler than normal air will remain in place through Saturday with tolerable humidity levels. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.
1250 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Quiet weather continues through the short-term portion of the forecast as high pressure, centered over the U. A very dry atmospheric profile will lead to very few afternoon cu across the area; however, good mixing will occur during the afternoon hours as the back edge of broad troughing lingers nearby. As the high slides slowly off to the east tonight, light southerly flow will retur over the west half, helping to keep temperatures a bit warmer. This will be due to the enhanced radiational cooling under the high pressure center.
In the lower levels, a drier air mass remains in place with a front stalled just south of the area. Peak heat index values will be closer to only 90 degrees today, even through the Highway 84 corridor. Thicker cloud cover tonight should keep overnight lows in the low 70s.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a rather broad upper level trough extending across much of the eastern CONUS, while Hurricane Harvey continues to spin over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As the TN Valley remains in between these two features, near zonal flow persists aloft, with high pressure in control at the surface. A pleasant weekend is in store for the area as weak upper ridging builds from the southeast in response to Hurricane Harvey's northward progression. Models are in fair agreement that an upper low will develop over south central Canada and drop into western Great Lakes late Saturday night.
612 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Showers and thunderstorms remain across northwest Iowa this morning on the nose of the low level jet and persistent warm air advection. Shear is largely weighted to the low levels with the overall deep layer shear around 25 kts. As the evening progress and the low level jet becomes entrenched across the region, damaging winds could also become a threat. Should see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies on Saturday night as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
A mid level trough just to the east over New Mexico continued moving away from the region with a dry subsident westerly flow in its wake. There may be just enough instability over the Rim and sky islands across SE AZ to generate some afternoon convection but the lower elevations will be unwelcoming of them. A sprawling anti-cyclone anchored over the Great Basin will envelope the entire western US this weekend.
Other storms will develop in the Black Hills region along a cold front and dive southeast overnight. Saturday will see northwest flow develop as a ridge strengthens over the Great Basin. A cold front will slip into the area from the northwest during the afternoon, providing a focus for thunderstorm development.
Light easterly low level flow is expected today with the highest low level moisture focused across the eastern half of the area. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values in the 100-105 range.
Some models showing a spotty shower or two popping up this afternoon in this troughing/NW flow pattern. Large scale northwesterly flow continues into the weekend as the upper trough slowly gets replaced by short wave ridging. As this occurs, the consensus favors rapidly deepening upper troughing and eventually a closed upper low dropping into the western Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend. Before that time, the upper low that will have moved into the Great Lakes early in the week seems poised to slowly meander eastward as it weakens. While we start to get into science fiction forecasting land beyond that juncture, there are some indications from the GEFS/Canadian that deepening troughing in the central portions of North America should drop down from Canada.
A weak cold front and modest mid level disturbance within west northwest flow aloft will move into western Nebraska this afternoon and tonight. Pops in these areas are the highest at around 50 percent. Went cooler with lows across the west in the mid to upper 50s and low 60s central and eastern zones, using CONSMOS.
Large scale northwesterly flow continues into the weekend as the upper trough slowly gets replaced by short wave ridging. As this occurs, the consensus favors rapidly deepening upper troughing and eventually a closed upper low dropping into the western Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region is bringing rainfree and pleasant weather to the Mid-South. High pressure extends from the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Skies are clear with temps in the lower to mid 60s across the region this morning. High pressure will continue across the region with below normal temperatures and low humidities.
Upper level high pressure will remain over the western U. The position of the upper high and also the lack of a significant upper through in the eastern part of the country are expected to work together to collapse the steering currents moving Hurricane Harvey.
Rainbands from Harvey offshore are now actively sweeping over the lower valley from the northeast. Rainfall will be the biggest concern today, with coastal areas of the lower valley in the mix as rain bands arrive with regularity.
The combination of cooler temperatures aloft and daytime heating could trigger isolated showers during the afternoon. Morning lows fall into the mid- upper 30s in the higher Dacks, with mid-upper 40s expected else where. Areas immediately around Lake Champlain will be warmer.
724 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Quiet weather continues through the short-term portion of the forecast as high pressure, centered over the U. A very dry atmospheric profile will lead to very few afternoon cu across the area; however, good mixing will occur during the afternoon hours as the back edge of broad troughing lingers nearby. As the high slides slowly off to the east tonight, light southerly flow will retur over the west half, helping to keep temperatures a bit warmer. This will be due to the enhanced radiational cooling under the high pressure center.
An upper level ridge will start to build into the Pac NW this weekend for a stretch of warmer weather.
Peak heat index values will be closer to only 90 degrees today, even through the Highway 84 corridor. Thicker cloud cover tonight should keep overnight lows in the low 70s.
and Saturday Canadian high pressure covered the forecast area early this morning. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 40s northeast to the upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 60s and lower 70s southeast.
A fairly weak upper level trof will migrate eastward across the area today.
Air temps are warmer under the blanket clouds in the upper 60s to mid 70s, but will be well below average with a filtered sunshine umbrella this afternoon.
So far High resolution CAM guidance has been overdoing pcpn development in warm advection zone vcnty developing E-W warm frontal boundary in SD. Best rain potential will be along and east of the trough. Based on most recent model trends will start backing off on pops across the north keeping the highest pops over the far south closer to better low level forcing. With best rain potential along and east of inverted trough will keep highest pops mainly over the Mn portion of the FA.
Highs today will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s for most locations with some 60s at higher elevations. Dry and warmer conditions will continue into the weekend with above normal temperatures for the beginning of the work week.
1003 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 High pressure and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal for late August as highs top out in the lower 80s with low humidity this afternoon. Lows tonight will cool into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the western U.
Highs are expected in the lower 90s. Light easterly low level flow is expected today with the highest low level moisture focused across the eastern half of the area. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values in the 100-105 range.
Tstms along the Ern border of Neb are at the nose of the low-lvl jet. Aloft: Anticyclonic flow was over the Srn USA with an embedded trof over Ern CO. with trofs over the NW and NE and a ridge between them over the Nrn Plns/Canadian Prairies. The primary feature of interest for the Cntrl Plns is the CO trof which will advance across Neb/KS today. but a sfc trof will develop to its SW and move into the Panhandle today. Today: Quite a bit of mid-high cloudiness this morning ahead of the upr trof. Pattern: The signal remains persistent that significant amplification will occur Sat as a subtropical high builds over the Wrn USA with a downstream trof over the E.
853 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather into the weekend.
High pressure centered across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley will keep dry and cooler than normal weather in the offing today and Saturday. Dry northwest flow aloft will continue as gentle height rises occur in wake of a trough approaching New Brunswick.
1012 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary/warm front stretching from far northwest SD to north central NE. A cold front extends from central SK to southern ID. Weak low pressure is developing along the boundary across southwest SD and will move east- northeast through the afternoon and evening with the front. Upper ridging sits across the upper Midwest this morning with near zonal flow across the northwest CONUS. Strong upper ridging is then progged to develop across the western CONUS with the region sitting under northwest flow aloft.
Protective short wave ridging should prevent any of the more substantial -shra from pushing into far western CWA today, but possible a few sprinkles may affect the Reedsburg, Mineral Point and Darlington areas. Upstream warm air advection increases tonight over MN/IA ahead of short wave trof moving through the northern Plains. The mid-level warm front will push into our western areas on Saturday afternoon, but will remain to our west at the surface. This means the lowest portions of the atmosphere will remain fairly dry, so we'll mostly just see increasing cloud cover across our CWA, with just a slight chance of showers in our far northwest.