Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
H20 vapor imagery was vividly showing a closed upper low over southeastern Nebraska within southwest to northeast oriented trough. Decent low pressure gradient in between the high and the low pressure system will allow for a modest northeast breeze this afternoon. The low pressure system will bottom out over the deep south Saturday night and then lift northeast into the western Carolinas late Sunday.
Meantime, a slow moving upper low to the southwest will continue to spread clouds and moisture above our dry surface air.
Winds will be southerly out ahead of the low this afternoon and evening, then pick back up out of the northwest tomorrow. Think that there will not be enough low level moisture for freezing drizzle and the warm layer aloft is fleeting.
349 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Broad upper ridging starts to nudge in through the day, bringing a surface warm front with it which will lead to a rebound in temperatures. This will mean highs in the lower 20s over the James River Valley, the upper 20s to mid 30s north and central, and into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the southwest. Expect overnight lows to range from the lower teens over the southern James River Valley to the 20s elsewhere. Modest pressure rises and steep low level lapse rates will lead to some gusty winds out of the northwest Sunday afternoon with the strongest gusts generally confined to the higher terrain around the South Dakota border.
Today expect high pressure to settle in at the sfc with northerly flow aloft. This high pressure will help to bring winds down gradually this afternoon and evening and then winds will turn southerly later this evening with the return flow around the high. This wave is a dry wave that is expected to dive south and bring a sfc trof axis through the area that will shift winds to being north and northwesterly.
803 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 High pressure centered across Ontario/Quebec will make for cold conditions in the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains Saturday into Sunday.
The phasing of the low pressure and the trough from Canada will continue to dive southward across the Central Plains. Given the snowfall on Sunday and it slowly tapering off I don't think temperatures are going to warm above freezing so have trended lower than guidance given the snow fall and snow cover.
Should be a relatively mild day with high pressure aloft in control. A weak clipper system will pass through the high plains tonight. Temperatures will be a little cooler for Sunday with 30s to lower 40s common.
A ridge of high pressure remains the dominant feature near the region this weekend for mostly dry weather, though morning fog or lower clouds likely linger each day.
No changes made to the forecast for this afternoon, expecting mostly clear skies as temps warm into the low 70s. (Previous Discussion) A strong low pressure will be making its way from the Lower MS Valley eastward with an extending cold front stretching from its center towards the eastern Gulf. VFR conditions prevail today, then winds begin to increase tonight as a strong cold front approaches the area. Surface winds increase to approx 17015KT by 16/10Z, just as winds just above the surface (2KFT) jump to 45-55KT as the low-level jet overspread the central peninsula. A strong low pressure system moves across Southeast U. , dragging a cold front through our area on Sunday.
Well above average highs in the low to upper 50s will be possible across our area.
645 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 High pressure keeps Saturday mostly dry, with a front approaching from the south late day.
Gusty northeast winds this morning will diminish in the afternoon as high pressure builds over the area.
501 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 High pressure keeps Saturday mostly dry, with a front approaching from the south late day.
(Today and tonight) A mid level cyclone continues to make its way southward across central KS early this morning. On the immediate backside of the low, however, a lobe of mid level moisture and light snowfall is making its way into western KS. By mid day as the cyclone moves over SE OK the far western extent of a trowal will result in some light snowfall occuring along and east of I-35. Widespread stratus will keep max temperatures well below avg behind the cold front, with subfreezing conditions present across the eastern 2/3 of our FA. Expect overnight lows in the low teens along and north of I-44, with colder temps present wherever there's some snowpack.
Overnight satellite imagery revealed a fairly well-structured mid- latitude cyclone centered across Kansas. RAP analysis had the center of the mid level cyclone almost dead center over central Kansas at 09Z. Radar mosaic showed light to moderate snow echoes wrapping around the mid level cyclone center, with the westernmost north- south oriented band extending right down along the U183 corridor from La Crosse to just northeast of Kinsley. The high wind event was winding down across much of the area as of 09Z, with only the central and south central Kansas counties still seeing some periodic gusts in excess of 40 knots. During the 10Z hour, we will likely cancel another big portion of the High Wind Warning.
518 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Cooler, but dry and windy conditions are expected today in the wake of the overnight cold front.
Additionally, with temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s, slick spots on roadways and sidewalks are possible with freezing fog. This afternoon moisture moving across the ridge will likely create light showers in northwest Montana and potentially into the mountains of west-central Montana, little to no accumulation is expected. Freezing drizzle is possible but low probability in northwest Montana, which could create slick spots.
1024 AM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Closed upper low was located over central KS, with an upstream ridge axis from southern Canada into the northern Great Basin. Went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for BRX beginning at 5 AM this morning and continuing until 11 PM this evening. Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for ARL valid from 11 AM this morning until 8 AM Sunday morning.
Tonight through Sunday night Dry northerly upper flow behind a departing closed upper low tonight. A return to brief downsloping southwest surface flow early Sunday before a cold front moves through the Panhandles. A quick warmup Sunday and then turning only slightly cooler following the passage of the cold front.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a broad upper ridge across the region as high clouds rotated over the top of the ridge spilling into SE Idaho. Under the high-clouds, widespread low-clouds extended from Boise east into the Snake Plain. The high-clouds are expected to diminish some overnight allowing fog and stratus to redevelop over the Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley.
1208 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 (The rest of today ) Well-defined upper low over central OK will continue to dig southeast into the Arklatex before making a turn eastward this evening. Regional radar shows a large precip shield extending from the Gulf Coast through the lower MS Valley into central MO with wraparound lighter precip, mostly snow, extending westward into western OK. Some lighter echoes across northeast OK may still be patches of freezing drizzle but latest imagery indicates increasing intensity along with moistening of the low & mid level water vapor suggesting the more production of ice crystals in the column with light snow the most favored precipitation type.
151 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Area is currently sitting on the back edge of the synoptic scale trof covering the central and eastern United States. This is close enough to the action to catch the tail end of disturbances dropping into the trof from western Canada, but too far west to realize any significant impacts other than winds. One disturbance is dropping through eastern MT now, and another stronger wave will move through late tonight dragging some cooler air and some flurry activity for mainly southeast MT overnight into tomorrow morning.
1047 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Main upper low continues to make progress into central OK at this time. Well above average highs in the low to upper 50s will be possible across our area.
1116 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 High pressure keeps Saturday mostly dry, with a front approaching from the south late day.
(The rest of today ) Well-defined upper low over central OK will continue to dig southeast into the Arklatex before making a turn eastward this evening. Regional radar shows a large precip shield extending from the Gulf Coast through the lower MS Valley into central MO with wraparound lighter precip, mostly snow, extending westward into western OK. Some lighter echoes across northeast OK may still be patches of freezing drizzle but latest imagery indicates increasing intensity along with moistening of the low & mid level water vapor suggesting the more production of ice crystals in the column with light snow the most favored precipitation type.
117 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Western NOAM ridge will remain in place, supporting downstream active flow with impulses about ever other day. Cold front will arrive Sun morning, with increasing flow and CAA ensuing.
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Cooler, but dry and windy conditions are expected today in the wake of the overnight cold front.
High pressure off to our east will bring some warmer air over the region through tonight before a weak, dry cold front moves through around daybreak.
Looking ahead, blowing snow looks like the main concern across the higher elevations and eastern downslope-prone slopes of the Prairie Coteau tonight, as discussed previously. Upper level ridging, along with some warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures into the area today with highs reaching the upper 20s, to the low 30s over the limited snow cover areas in the western CWA. Low level winds will increase tonight, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau. Slightly cooler, or stronger surface winds would yield more widespread blowing snow issues. in the models has not changed much from model run to model run with mean upper level ridging along the west coast and upper level troughing over the eastern U.
Both Halleck Ridge and County Road 402 WYDOT sites reporting gusts to 45 mph currently.
151 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Little change in the short term period as a closed low remains centered off the California coast and ridging builds into our CWA. maybe a few degrees warmer.
The upper level system that brought the quick burst of snow to central Indiana will continue to dive south through the night with the center of the low expected to move through Louisiana into Alabama by Sunday morning. The aforementioned system will begin to make a northerly turn during the morning hours on Sunday with the low traveling along the Appalachians during the daytime hours.
1043 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 A brisk morning across the Florida Keys with lows ranging from the lower 60s to 53 within the tundra of Big Pine. Dewpoints remain in the 50s with temperatures now in the lower 70s. Breezes will turn to the southeast this afternoon as low pressure takes shape over the Mississippi River Valley. From synopsis, light to gentle northeast to east breezes will become gentle from the southeast this afternoon, then quickly increase to strong from the south to southwest late tonight into Sunday, as an intense cold front moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico.
1138 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Main upper low continues to make progress into central OK at this time. Well above average highs in the low to upper 50s will be possible across our area.
254 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 The snow has wound down across much of the area as the upper low continues to dig southeastward through the Southern Plains. Diminishing winds tonight as weak high pressure becomes prevalent should combine with the clearing skies and fresh snow cover to make for a chilly night and generally went below guidance with temps, especially northern areas with lows in the single digits.
Some residual light snow and flurries can be expected in Southeast Kansas this evening as a strong Canadian high pressure system continues to build into the region. Early Sunday morning, the high pressure system will be pushing off to the east and the winds will be shifting to the south and southwest.
1014 AM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Water vapor shows transitory upper ridge crossing the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with next wave over BC/ALTA. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with warm advection ongoing in our western zones. Transitory upper ridge will move through the Northern Plains today, with warm front lifting through and pushing highs back into the 40s to near 50 for all but our far eastern zones.
119 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 High pressure centered across Ontario/Quebec will make for cold conditions in the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains Saturday into Sunday.
(Through tonight ) Upper low over northeast Texas continues to move southeast, but will begin turning east by early evening. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Skies will be clearing Sunday morning, and temperatures will be much warmer than today, with much lighter winds.
There are hardly any clouds across our area, and with high pressure near the surface dominating the pressure patterns, we don't expect much wind today either. Models have upper ridging moving into the CWA today. Will make sure there are fairly decent downsloping winds for the high mountains and foothills later this evening and tonight. For temperatures, today's highs are progged to be 1-2 C warmer than yesterday's daytime highs were. For Sunday, dry weather will persist along the periphery of the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin. There is a weak short wave dropping southeast across the Northern Plains States, which will push a weak cold front across the plains.
243 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Current surface analysis place trough stretching through northern Manitoba into central Saskatchewan, while high stretches from the central plains through the upper midwest over the Great Lakes. Upper level analysis places places compact low near the eastern Texas/Oklahoma border, with broad ridge over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies, though a few short waves are noticed in the flow.
Gusty northeast winds this morning will diminish in the afternoon as the current low pressure system heads to the east.
214 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Quieter conditions are expected tonight into Sunday as a brief period of high pressure spreads in. Sunday looks to be mostly dry with high pressure lingering through most of the day. Although global models aren't too excited about snow chances, the high resolution models are more supportive of it.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 39 26 39 24 / 90 90 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 39 26 36 24 / 80 80 60 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 38 25 36 24 / 80 90 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 36 24 31 22 / 60 90 70 40 10 NC.
May also see some lingering freezing fog overnight.
315 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 Discussion/Marine Quiet but cold pattern continues as dry Arctic air mass and surface ridging dominate.
215 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 (Issued 215 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: Persistent onshore flow will ease with lingering inverted trough into the evening hours. Surface ridging sets up tonight into early Sunday. In addition a fairly sharp low level trough comes into play. Both the NAM and GFS bufkit soundings show pronounced moistening within the column and so leaning a little more towards the higher NAM pops with this system as it pushes through in the afternoon into the early evening. The trough exits to the east later Sunday evening which will take the lingering snow chances with it.
The upper low will steer far to the east by daybreak Sunday. A weak boundary/cold front will be edging south out of the Texas Panhandle late in the day but should have no significant impact our area during the day Sunday.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 37 39 26 39 / 40 100 90 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 34 39 26 36 / 30 80 80 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 44 36 38 25 36 / 30 80 90 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 30 36 24 31 / 20 60 70 50 40 NC.
Current infrared satellite imagery showing substantial dense fog that has developed across the Lower Columbia Basin, Wallowa county, and the Yakima and Kittitas Valleys this morning. Current temperatures are hovering around or slightly below freezing for the aforementioned areas, as freezing temperatures have allowed for the potential for ice to deposit on surfaces, leading to the possibility for slick roadways and/or walkways. Thus, the Freezing Fog Advisories will continue through the morning hours. The presence of such a deep low cloud/fog layer will also inhibit warming through the Basin, as temperatures are expected to slowly break above freezing late this morning.
This should settle into the state tonight, and with fresh snow cover have dropped lows to the lower end of guidance with a least a period of favorable radiational cooling conditions. Confidence in the degree of cooling is not great however, with the high's passage and weak return flow starting overnight, and the possible expansion of stratus lingering over parts of west central and southern Iowa this afternoon. This leaves periods of light snow and light freezing rain/drizzle both in play.
804 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Quieter conditions are expected tonight into Sunday as a brief period of high pressure spreads in. Ridge of high pressure stretches from northern Missouri into SE Wisconsin this hour and will continue to slowly sag south towards central Illinois this evening. Northeast winds have diminished from earlier in the day, but continue to advect lower dew points into the area, with single digit dew points noted under the upstream ridge axis. Sunday looks to be mostly dry with high pressure lingering through most of the day. Although global models aren't too excited about snow chances, the high resolution models are more supportive of it.
229 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Latest visible satellite analysis and RAP analysis indicates the High Plains in between a departing (eastward) moving low and lee troughing developing over the northern High Plains. High temperature forecast remains on track with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 20s/low 30s to upper 30s, with the cooler temperatures over the eastern CWA which had high clouds linger longer from the departing eastern Kansas storm system. Tonight, mid to high clouds overspread the area from the above mentioned trough as winds become more southwesterly around 10 knots.
355 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Latest visible satellite analysis and RAP analysis indicates the High Plains in between a departing (eastward) moving low and lee troughing developing over the northern High Plains. High temperature forecast remains on track with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 20s/low 30s to upper 30s, with the cooler temperatures over the eastern CWA which had high clouds linger longer from the departing eastern Kansas storm system. Tonight, mid to high clouds overspread the area from the above mentioned trough as winds become more southwesterly around 10 knots.
Cloud cover will continue to invade North Texas and this could equate to less efficient mixing and a slow decay of the highest wind speeds. As the upper low approaches, we'll continue to see mid/upper level ascent spread across North Texas. Sunday will feature slightly warmer conditions, though still just below normal for the areas near and east of the US HWY 281 corridor. West of this region, however, highs will warm to 5 to 7 degrees above normal as west flow develops and pushes temperatures into the low 60s. Transient, weak ridging should keep conditions dry throughout North and Central Texas with highs in the upper 50s in North Texas and lower to mid 60s in Central Texas.
254 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Afternoon breezes will gradually subside this evening as high pressure nudges into the area. With high pressure in control of the weather on Sunday, expect a milder than average day across the area, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 30s in the Southwestern Valleys to the mid 40s across the plains. Winds this afternoon will gradually weaken this evening as high pressure slides into the area, bringing a bit of calmer weather to the area for the day on Sunday.
/Issued 534 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022/ Very gusty NW winds will relax from W-E tonight as high pressure moves closer.
238 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Current ridge of high pressure anchored over the U. extends its ridge axis well through the central and northern Rocky Mountains and the adjacent high plains region. This continues to provide warmer than average temperatures that we have seen here lately. This seems to be forced by a sweeping low pressure trough from the north.
Windshift and a dusting of very light snow tomorrow with a cold front passing through during the day. Clouds should increase through the overnight and into sunday as a cold front approaches. a cold front will drop into the area overnight and move across the area early on sunday, with winds turning from the northwest during the day.
201 PM PST Sat Jan 15 2022 An area of low pressure will continue to move north and eastward up the California coast bringing a chance of light precipitation to southwest Kern County this evening.
622 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Key Messages: - Blowing snow on the Buffalo Ridge tonight with gusts around 45 mph.
A near-shore area of low pressure and weakening interior high pressure will aid in disrupting recently observed moderate offshore easterlies. Otherwise, ensemble forecast guidance strongly supports robust upper-level ridging centered over the NERN PAC and West Coast. Southerly winds develop along the coast overnight tonight as the thermal trough pushes farther offshore, which may bring more widespread stratus Sunday morning along the coast. Northerly winds will continue to gradually diminish throughout the day today as a thermal trough near to the coast weakens and moves offshore.
High pressure will remain in place over the weekend.
Toward morning there will be a weak cold front that is expected to move through the area, mainly during the morning on Sunday. Despite the cold front, temperatures are expected to be much warmer on Sunday. There will be sunshine, the winds should increase which should mix down the warmer temperatures that are expected aloft. So, even with a cold front, expect temperatures to warm.
Afternoon breezes will gradually subside this evening as high pressure nudges into the area. With high pressure in control of the weather on Sunday, expect a milder than average day across the area, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 30s in the Southwestern Valleys to the mid 40s across the plains. Winds this afternoon will gradually weaken this evening as high pressure slides into the area, bringing a bit of calmer weather to the area for the day on Sunday.
218 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Ridging across the western US will continue this weekend, keeping a dry northwest flow aloft over Wyoming.
411 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Western NOAM ridge will remain in place, supporting downstream active flow with impulses about ever other day. Cold front will arrive Sun morning, with increasing flow and CAA ensuing.
529 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 (Through tonight ) Upper low over northeast Texas continues to move southeast, but will begin turning east by early evening. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Skies will be clearing Sunday morning, and temperatures will be much warmer than today, with much lighter winds.
438 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Little change in the short term period as a closed low remains centered off the California coast and ridging builds into our CWA. maybe a few degrees warmer.