Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
PV lobes rotating around a broad Northern Plains longwave trough provided enough support for isolated showers across Nebraska and Kansas today, but these showers were on a downward trend and having a minimal impact on the sensible weather. North to northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph behind a departing cold front funneled Canadian air southward into the region and helped keep highs in the 70s to around 80 today. A high pressure ridge building southward down the High Plains will bring clear and cool weather tonight and tomorrow with lows tonight in the mid 50s and highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to around 80 (climatological high/low for Topeka is 87/66). with the broad mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes region resulting in northwesterly flow aloft.
1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 High pressure moving in this afternoon should provide a very pleasant few days.
659 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Cold front is about ready to push south of the area.
A strong and dry high pressure system will continue to build across the pacnw tonight.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies over the weekend.
A cold front has passed southeast of the forecast area. With the drier air, clearing skies, and cooler air moving in, expect lows in the mid to upper 50s over most of the area tonight, with low 60s south of I-70. A cold front pushing just south of I-70 at mid afternoon will move through se IL next few hours. Much drier air ushering into central IL on breezy northerly winds, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s from I-55 nw while muggy upper 60s to mid 70s southeast of a Rantoul to Taylorville line. A nice early summer day for central IL on Saturday with mostly sunny skies and breezy nw winds with cooler highs in the middle to upper 70s.
Hence, have dropped the flash flood watch with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm still possible through the much of the night as a cold front over the Ottawa Valley sweeps through the region. Additional weak low level troughing settling south toward the intl border during the afternoon may spark scattered showers/isolated storms across the far north, but most of the day should be rain-free for most areas.
808 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will weaken tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Looking at surface observations there's still plenty of juice to work with as dewpoints have only "dropped" into the lower to middle 70s. The cold front is expected to be over the area Saturday morning and a weak disturbance moving along the front out of the OK/TX area could generate some showers and storms during the day Saturday.
1007 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A cold front sweeping through early Saturday will return comfortable humidity levels by the weekend.
Winds also appear to remain light overnight with high pressure at the surface. Coulston An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies over the weekend.
01Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Paris, TN through Memphis and East Arkansas. Showers and thunderstorms associated with instability along and ahead of the cold front have greatly diminished over the past couple of hours. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to push into this warm and juicy airmass. Can't rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday across North Mississippi as the higher dewpoints may linger across the region.
1157 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Cold front is about ready to push south of the area.
921 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 The cold front responsible for the severe weather and heavy rain continues to push through southern Arkansas.
The closed upper low spinning over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba continues to drive northwest flow aloft through Northeast Montana this evening. Dry weather will continue into Saturday with an upper ridge building across the Pacific coast and gradually translating east, leaving NE Montana in northwest upper flow. This eastward moving Pacific feature will lead to rising heights over the Northern High Plains and somewhat warmer temperatures on Saturday as well, but much of the warming will hold off until just beyond the short term period.
747 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Sea state continues conducive to high rip current risk, and thus will retain the high risk. Nevertheless, will consider extending the high rip current risk. Best place to be is at the beach but with the high risk of dangerous rip currents it's not advised to get into the water so you should only look at the water Overnight will remain quite muggy and just plain gross. Coastal troughing/convergence will be better with a bit less of a capping inversion as the mid-level ridging and heat core move towards the west.
1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Breezy northeast winds will continue to subside as high pressure builds into the region. Below normal temperatures will linger into the weekend across the area with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 50s/around 60.
1115 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Water Vapor/Regional Radar Mosaic imagery this afternoon featuring a mid-level trough and associated scattered shower activity swinging eastward through MN. Looking for this trough and showers to continue rotating east into our area later this afternoon into this evening. For the rest of tonight, plan on partly cloudy and cool conditions with lows dipping into the lower/middle 50s. A rather vigorous mid-level trough/strong 700-300mb pv-advection will drop through the area for Saturday, bringing with it widespread shower/scattered thunderstorms by afternoon lasting into the evening.
Seabreeze convection is expected to develop Sat afternoon as low to mid level moisture increases across the lower Texas coast Saturday as a 500mb inverted trough across the southwest Gulf of Mexico provides a weakness in the 500mb ridge across south TX. /issued 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ Short Term (Now through Saturday night): A break in the oppressive heat is noted moving into the short term as the summertime H5 ridge finally gets nudged back to the west. During the next 24 hours, the inverted trough currently along the Yucatan Peninsula will move west across the western Gulf, drawing much more moisture into south Texas.
1205 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Cooler and much drier air has filtered into southeastern Michigan this evening. Redevelopment of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through late afternoon before cooler and less humid air arrives behind the cold front and brings an end to activity by early evening. A clearing trend with cooler and less humid air will follow the exit of early evening showers/storms through the overnight and Saturday morning. This will occur under cool temperatures aloft carried in by the upper level trough now over the Midwest which will bring 500 mb temperatures from around -9 C today to around -18 C Saturday afternoon and evening. Daytime heating that will lift high temps into the lower 70s will produce at least scattered convection over lower Michigan.
1048 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 High pressure will settle in to the Western High Plains with the gradient slackening just a bit over the area. Likely a couple degrees warmer but still some upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations as clouds will be less than today.
Will continue to see low clouds over the area tonight with a cold front approaching the area toward morning.
Under partly cloudy skies with moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes, temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s. On this date in 1912, the low temperature in Key West dipped to 71 degrees.
Cool night still in store with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Cool and breezy conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper trough sits over the region. The upper flow through the next few days will be mainly northwesterly with a trough to the east and a slowly eastward migrating ridge to our west.
Slightly warmer H85 temps on Wed should result in higher sfc temps. Tides may briefly approach the dune line during the high tide cycle this morning, but overall the water line should remain low enough to preclude a Coastal Advisory Issuance.
A trough aloft and another cold front are expected to move toward the region by the end of the week. A weak trough aloft over the central Appalachians and upper OH valley will drift northward at the same time. Backdoor cold front pushes through Tue night with sct tstms working from north to south. By midday Wed the backdoor cold front is predicted to extend from the southern Chesapeake west through VA then up toward Chicago.
118 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 High pressure centered along the southern Middle Atlantic coast will drift offshore tonight. A backdoor cold front will follow and settle south through VA into northern NC into Thu. The higher dew points and the considerable high clouds will aid in keeping lows up overnight. Associated destabilization and weak forcing for ascent, atop an 850 mb theta-e ridge nosing into those areas from the sw, will support a higher- than-previous-days chance of diurnal convection (15-30 percent), mainly from Albemarle to Raleigh to Warrenton and points nwwd.
A series of upper impulses will move around the edge of an upper ridge. These will not only break down the ridge but also interact with a hot and humid atmosphere to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through the work week. A cold front will bring more chances for rain for the weekend. For now will time the highest PoPs during the afternoon when instability is at its highest.
As advertised, weaknesses in the upper ridge over the southeastern US are becoming more evident, and now have an atmosphere conducive to scattered convection that largely will be dominated diurnally, but not completely as POPs will continue into the overnight portion of the forecast. But still kept some slight chance POPs around with the high precipitable water -- 1. Models still indicating an upper level disturbance and weak cold front sometime Wednesday into Wednesday night, which could provide a bit more organization to the thunderstorms.
359 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms primarily to the southern tier, the western Catskills and northeast Pennsylvania this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region overnight making for a partly to mostly sunny Wednesday along with cooler temperatures. A combination of a mid level short wave, back-door cold front and atmospheric destabilzation ahead of this feature will increase the areal coverage of thunderstorms over the southern tier, western Catskills and northeast Pennsylvania this afternoon. Local severe weather checklist indicates the potential for gusty/damaging winds as model soundings show some mid level dry air and inverted V in the low levels. It will be warm and muggy with highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s in central New York and middle to upper 80s in northeast Pennsylvania.
The upper level low that brought widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms yesterday is now located in south-central Montana.
241 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through midweek.
As advertised, weaknesses in the upper ridge over the southeastern US are becoming more evident, and now have an atmosphere conducive to scattered convection that largely will be dominated diurnally, but not completely as POPs will continue into the overnight portion of the forecast.
320 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest SD, with an occluded front stretching northwest back to low pressure over central MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure centered over south central MT, with strong jet feeding northward across CO, eastern WY, and into eastern MT. Temps range from the lower 50s across parts of northeast WY to near 70 over south central SD. As Upper low moves northwest of the region today, the drier air will continue to push eastward across the area. A few high based showers or thundershowers could develop in the afternoon over northeast WY into the western Black Hills area and far northwest SD as some energy rotates around the low to the north.
137 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. The risk for isolated to scattered showers will increase along the Georgia coast after midnight as weak low pressure develops along a sharp coastal trough that extended from the Northeast Florida coast to about 80nm east of Hilton Head.
305 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Upper low slowly spinning eastward across the northern Rockies will influence our weather today as increasing upper winds and shear associated with increasing SW flow south of this low over West Texas combine with moderate to strong instability and dry line convergence to produce scattered thunderstorms today after 21z.
/issued 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ Thunderstorm activity near KPVW may hold together trough 03Z-05Z as it makes its way toward KCDS. This was in response to a deep upper level low currently in the Great Basin. This low will eject out of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies and then the northern Plains tomorrow. Surface dew points in the lower 60s have allowed mixed layer instabilities to climb to around 2000 J/kg already and could go slightly higher in the next few hours. We will begin to see rising heights on Wednesday with a strengthening ridge to the south of the region.
But still kept some slight chance POPs around with the high precipitable water -- 1. Models still indicating an upper level disturbance and weak cold front sometime Wednesday into Wednesday night, which could provide a bit more organization to the thunderstorms.
ENE surface winds will keep eastern areas cooler than yesterday. Heat Indices still expected to get into the low to mid 90s in the southwest. The mid level ridge breaks down as a closed low tracks across southern Canada. A warm front looks like it will be stretched from NW to SE across the area, with east winds north of Milwaukee. There are precip and thunderstorm chances during the day with these features and then into the night ahead of the approaching weak cold front. Lake shore areas will be cooler with the east winds.
A strong low pressure system will move through and exit the region today. Expect winds to diminish quickly this evening as most of the wind is being created by a strong pressure gradient associated with the low.
The low pressure system that brought a taste of winter to June is quickly moving to the Rockies with zonal flow (neither a trough or ridge) over the region the next few days.
609 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the area maintaining fair weather today with temperatures near normal.
400 AM PDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A strong ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the region this week. Upper low continues to exit the region this morning as satellite imagery and upper air analysis now has it moving through the Northern Rockies. Yet, the lingering effects of its passage through Central California will be felted for another day as only weak ridge is now pushing through the area.
300 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 High pressure centered along the southern Middle Atlantic coast will drift offshore tonight. A backdoor cold front will follow and settle south through VA into northern NC into Thu. The higher dew points and the considerable high clouds will aid in keeping lows up overnight. Associated destabilization and weak forcing for ascent, atop an 850 mb theta-e ridge nosing into those areas from the sw, will support a higher- than-previous-days chance of diurnal convection (15-30 percent), mainly from Albemarle to Raleigh to Warrenton and points nwwd. Significant uncertainty persists with regard to whether or not a backdoor cold front will extend SW into portions of central NC during the day Thu as high pressure shifts offshore the New England/Mid-Atlantic coast, though the impact thereof will primarily be limited to high temperatures.
The unseasonably cold upper low over extreme southwest Montana will continue northeast away from Utah today.
525 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Hot and humid weather will prevail across central Illinois today, with afternoon high temperatures once again topping out in the lower to middle 90s. Due to increased boundary layer moisture and surface dewpoints reaching the lower 70s, widely scattered convection is expected to develop during peak heating. Meanwhile, high pressure building southeastward from Canada into the northern Great Lakes will push a weak cold front southward tonight. Elsewhere around central Illinois, am expecting dry weather with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. Low pressure currently over southeast Wyoming will lift northeastward into Manitoba on Wednesday, pushing a weakening cold front into the Midwest. With upper ridge only flattening slightly, this boundary will become parallel to the upper flow and quickly lose any forward momentum.
The subtropical ridge is in place off the Southeast U. coast and it is ridging back across Dixie with the axis north of the forecast area. The upper level ridge is also east of the area with a weakness developing aloft. Guidance has finally caught on with the lower daytime temps and we only adjusted down by a degree or so for Wednesday.
343 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Hot and humid weather will prevail across central Illinois today, with afternoon high temperatures once again topping out in the lower to middle 90s. Due to increased boundary layer moisture and surface dewpoints reaching the lower 70s, widely scattered convection is expected to develop during peak heating. Meanwhile, high pressure building southeastward from Canada into the northern Great Lakes will push a weak cold front southward tonight. Elsewhere around central Illinois, am expecting dry weather with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. Low pressure currently over southeast Wyoming will lift northeastward into Manitoba on Wednesday, pushing a weakening cold front into the Midwest. With upper ridge only flattening slightly, this boundary will become parallel to the upper flow and quickly lose any forward momentum.
Upper low is situated over Yellowstone Park and progged by models to meander northeast to the Dakotas by tonight. It appears models are in good agreement that the precipitation will wind down by Wednesday morning, with some clearing likely by Wednesday afternoon as 500 MB heights increase behind the upper low. Warmer temperatures should arrive Wednesday, but with highs still a bit below normal.
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Fairly uniform flow aloft across the southeastern US this morning with the only real upper level feature being a very weak trough near the Florida panhandle. By Wednesday, weak upper ridging begins to build over the area as the upper flow turns zonal across much of the CONUS.
341 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Hot and humid summer-like conditions to continue today and Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes region southwest into the lower OH/MS Valley regions and TX. Afternoon temps rising back up into the lower 90s both days will combine with sfc dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s to create heat index values in the upper 90s in many locations.
On Tuesday an upper level trough will cross the Central Rockies and move out into the Western High Plains. By 21z the NAM and GFS both place the dry line east of highway 283 as the upper level trough begins to cross western Kansas. Convection Tuesday evening will end/move east of north central and south central Kansas early Tuesday evening as an upper level trough crosses the Central Plains. As this upper wave passes a surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas which will bring an end to the 100 plus temperatures.
The bulk of the area, however, will remain dry through the afternoon under the influence of high pressure. Predominantly dry wx will persist through tonight as the ridge axis passes directly overhead and northeast flow reinforces low-level stability & suppresses temps and dewpoints into the low 60s.
/26/ Today: The region remains under the influence of a weak mid level ridge extending from TX northeast across north MS and into TN. Tonight: Convection will wind down in the early evening as temperatures cool into the low to mid 70s.
500 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest SD, with an occluded front stretching northwest back to low pressure over central MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure centered over south central MT, with strong jet feeding northward across CO, eastern WY, and into eastern MT. Temps range from the lower 50s across parts of northeast WY to near 70 over south central SD. As Upper low moves northwest of the region today, the drier air will continue to push eastward across the area. A few high based showers or thundershowers could develop in the afternoon over northeast WY into the western Black Hills area and far northwest SD as some energy rotates around the low to the north.
420 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A cold front will move south across the region reaching southern New Hampshire by late in the day.
Will also need to monitor the northward track of the warm front overnight as it moves into northeastern SD from Onida to Watertown around 09Z. With the warm front nearing, the very dry airmass (current dewpoints in the 30s to low 40s over western and central CWA) will allow for low level moistening and dewpoints moving back into the upper 50s and low 50s overnight. Tuesday temperatures will be tricky, either in the upper 80s to low 90s, or much cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s if the stratus clouds linger longer. One concern, limiting the severe weather potential would be the stratus deck that could keep temperatures cooler and result in a more stable atmosphere. The long wave pattern appears as if it will slowly transition to a west coast ridge/east conus trof.
348 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 TODAY AND TONIGHT: The axis of the western Atlantic ridge continues to stretch across North Florida this morning, keeping South Florida under fairly deep east-southeasterly flow. Satellite analysis continues to show a pocket of drier air, both in the low levels and aloft, over the Bahamas that is expected to advect across the region later this morning. this same drier air may also enhance the potential for a few gusty storms in this same area, especially as temperatures aloft remain a little cooler than normal.
334 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the area maintaining fair weather today with temperatures near normal. These clouds will help mitigate fog development despite light winds and sufficient low level moisture recovery with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Thus, it would appear the coarser, large scale models ultimately handled the early parts of this dynamic storm better than the higher resolution models. The latest webcam imagery from Gilmore Summit (7000 ft) and Lone Pine (6300 ft) in Lemhi County, Idaho are showing light snow with temperatures across the area residing in the low to mid 60s. Light snow will continue to fall across Lemhi County and the higher terrain of SW Montana, especially under heavier areas of precipitation, throughout the morning hours.
Lows tonight will fall into the low/mid 50s, with a few upper 50s across the southern U. Then for Tue highs will warm into the low/mid 70s, but with a northeast wind areas along the northern U. and adjacent to Lake Superior or within the Lake Superior shadow could remain several degrees cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s. With a low pressure system moving N into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight into tomorrow, a boundary will push north of the area with moist, southerly flow across the region. With high pressure overhead tonight lifting northeast Tuesday, winds will turn northeast to east but the gradient is expected to remain light with a 10-20kt winds.