Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Later this week, more active weather may return with cooler temperatures, stronger winds, and a potential for showers. Later this week simulations continue to show a trough dropping into the Pac NW with the potential for a cold front to swing into the Sierra and western NV. Ensemble cluster analysis highlights what the previous forecast noted in regard to the changes in depth and trajectory of the incoming trough. Only 10% of the ensemble solutions show the trough dropping directly across the Sierra and western Nevada, which is quite the change from the forecast the past few days! That solution could still happen, but the probability is lower for now.
The combination of cooler temperatures aloft and mid and high level cloud cover will keep highs decidedly cooler today compared to the last several days, with low to mid 70s expected. Highs are expected to warm into the low to mid 70s, with afternoon humidity values falling to between 20 and 30 percent.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to range from the low 90s across northern and central Oklahoma up to near 105 degrees across western north Texas and parts of southwest Oklahoma.
Clouds will start to clear out by early afternoon, but it will be cooler today behind this storm system and have lowered high temperatures a bit into the lower 70s for south central Nebraska to the mid and upper 70s across north central Kansas. This should be a dry and warm day as an upper ridge slides east across the region. Highs for most areas will be in the lower 80s.
Behind this, satellite imagery shows an area of drier air moving in as a ridge builds in. This ridge will continue to build through the day today. Tempeatures will be warmer today, with highs in the 70s. Monday will still be dominated the ridge over the western US. However, some energy and moisture will work under the ridge. The highest values are over the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains. Temperatures will again be a little warmer into the the mid 70s.
Ridging builds toward the region today but remains west with a shallow trough to the east. What we will have is hot temperatures today and even hotter on Monday as the ridge shifts to nearly overhead. Expect ~102 west to the lower 90s east today and around 2 degrees warmer across the board tomorrow.
SB CAPE in the 2000-3000 range ahead of an advancing cold front along with deep layer shear is expected to result in strong to severe thunderstorms across east Kansas and much of Missouri this afternoon.
High cloud cover ahead of this trough will increase late this morning into the afternoon.
A weak disturbance will lower high temperatures around 6 degrees for Monday, and conditions will continue to run around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal through the remainder of this week. A west coast upper level ridge of high pressure is producing dry and warmer than normal conditions across central California.
The upper level low continues to hold its grip over our weather today, which means, you guessed it, another day of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Tonight, lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
426 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 Should see a break in precip chances much of today as we wait the approach of the next mid level short wave and associated cold front. Moderate instability along/ahead of the cold front and increasing deep-layer shear associated with the approaching mid level short wave is expected support strong thunderstorm development from eastern MO into southern IL during the afternoon, potentially spreading eastward toward the OH Valley by evening. Northwesterly flow aloft and an area of high pressure drifing east across the mid MS River and lower OH River Valleys will likely bring dry and seasonal conditions in for Mon/Tue time frame.
Outside of the breezy conditions, skies will be clear as the upper level ridge builds across the area throughout the day. Underneath this ridge, temperatures will also increase today with the warmest day occurring on Monday as the ridge/thermal ridge parks over much of Wyoming on Monday.
Some locations along thermal belts are still reporting temperatures in the low 70s as of 2:30 am. The breeziest locations are forecast to be near the Delta, western side of the Valley and over the high Sierra peaking this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are also forecast to be above average today with highs only slightly cooler than yesterday for some locations.
A cold frontal approach on Monday morning will provide necessary support for ascent via jet and frontogenesis. Temperature will remain relatively cool after the cold frontal passage, with recovering high temperature in the mid 60s. VFR will generally prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front, but morning showers east of PIT and isolated aftn convection may yield lcl restrictions. Next chance for widespread restrictions will be with the cold front early on Monday and shower/storm coverage should affect most TAF sites. Restrictions associated with a crossing cold front are expected Monday.
Monday looks to be a bit cooler in parts of the north, but much of central GA could reach the upper 80s to even low 90s.
A strong ridge from western Mexico through the desert southwest will bring even hotter conditions today before slowly diminishing through the week. As high pressure breaks down and dirties up with several weaknesses in the flow, we will go from a peak of 12-15 degrees above average today, to 4 or 5 degrees above average by mid week. Minimum RH values will be in the low single digits with poor overnight recoveries.
Should see a break in precip chances much of today as we wait the approach of the next mid level short wave and associated cold front. Moderate instability along/ahead of the cold front and increasing deep-layer shear associated with the approaching mid level short wave is expected support strong thunderstorm development from eastern MO into southern IL during the afternoon, potentially spreading eastward toward the OH Valley by evening. Northwesterly flow aloft and an area of high pressure drifing east across the mid MS River and lower OH River Valleys will likely bring dry and seasonal conditions in for Mon/Tue time frame.
302 AM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows cool front south of the region, with weak high pressure centered over eastern portions of the northern and central Plains. The pattern for the rest of the week becomes more unsettled, especially by late week, as a stronger long wave trough tracks across the western US and eventually into the Plains. Medium range models have been inconsistent on the track and speed of this trough for late week, but are trending faster and somewhat weaker in the latest runs.
523 AM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows cool front south of the region, with weak high pressure centered over eastern portions of the northern and central Plains. The pattern for the rest of the week becomes more unsettled, especially by late week, as a stronger long wave trough tracks across the western US and eventually into the Plains. Medium range models have been inconsistent on the track and speed of this trough for late week, but are trending faster and somewhat weaker in the latest runs.
Generally light flow is expected to continue, as the area remains wedged in between high pressures over the GOMEX and western Atlantic. This will produce the highest PoPs (40%) and will be the area with the greatest chance for a stronger storm or two.
Sunny this morning, with increasing clouds this afternoon, and warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening to areas north of the Highway 50 corridor. The flow aloft is transitioning from zonal to southwesterly today, which will in turn bring still warmer temperatures to the region.
Temperatures will be the warmest of the period today as the ridge slides east with the potential for more daily high records to be broken. Temperatures in the lower elevations will be in the mid to upper 90s with a few areas approaching 100 F. In the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon, temperatures will exceed 100 F creating dangerous conditions for those are not prepared for the heat.
318 AM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Upper ridging is expected to bring dry weather and warmer temperatures to NE Montana for today. An upper level Pacific NW trough will deepen and slide east toward the middle of the week. As that trough pushes downstream of the region late in the week, look for gusty northwest winds to develop across the area with temperatures near or a few degrees below normal.
A weak cold front moving into northern parts of the forecast area this evening will bring a better chance for TSRA and possibly gusty winds to KGLH, KGWO, and KGTR after 00Z Monday.
Overall, conditions improve later Monday, and winds become northerly as a weak thermal trough develops and persists through mid-week.
A building ridge of high pressure will maintain strong subsidence, leading to mostly clear skies. Temperatures rise to about 5 degrees above normal, but the high sun angle this time of year and lack of wind will make it feel warmer. As the ridge amplifies, Monday temperatures will warm by another 10 degrees compared to Sunday, bringing them up to about 15 degrees above seasonal normals.
The highest confidence for more widespread early afternoon storms, with mainly a wind damage potential, is across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
413 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 Should see a break in precip chances much of today as we wait the approach of the next mid level short wave and associated cold front. Moderate instability along/ahead of the cold front and increasing deep-layer shear associated with the approaching mid level short wave is expected support strong thunderstorm development from eastern MO into southern IL during the afternoon, potentially spreading eastward toward the OH Valley by evening. Northwesterly flow aloft and an area of high pressure drifing east across the mid MS River and lower OH River Valleys will likely bring dry and seasonal conditions in for Mon/Tue time frame.
A beautiful day is on tap with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s and a stiff breeze out of the northwest. Cyclonic flow continues over the north central CONUS as a closed upper level low slowly moves from the southern Canadian Prairies towards the Hudson Bay today. The state remains under the northwest flow that has brought windy conditions over the previous several days, however the stronger flow and pressure gradient is shifting to the east, with ridging and high pressure building from the west.
Given the clear skies and light winds associated with the ridge and the recent rainfall, it would seem reasonable that fog would develop in spots by late tonight. High pressure will remain in control Monday, which should make for a very enjoyable day weather-wise! High temperatures will be near 80 degrees, winds will be light and dew points will be in the 40's and 50's.
An upper level trough progressing eastward across the northern Plains will send a weak cold front southward across the Big Country overnight. Temperatures will be slightly cooler across the Big Country- highs in the mid to upper 90s- where the surface flow will be out of the east behind the aforementioned front.
Cooler and drier weather arrives for the start of the new week with temperatures expected to top out in the 70s.
220 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 Showers and a few embedded storms are expected tonight as a strong cold front moves through.
The thunderstorms are then expected to congeal into an MCS this evening and spread to the south-southeast in advance of a cold front moving through the region. (Monday through Sunday) High pressure is set to prevail across the region on Monday as the cold front eventually stalls across north Texas.
1118 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022 Update Will maintain the low pops across the forecast area, especially south, through this afternoon and early evening.
The highest instability axis is currently across Southern Arkansas where SFC based CAPE is around 5000 J/KG. Meanwhile, areas of West Tennessee that saw convection overnight are slightly cooler with dewpoints in the mid 60s. SB CAPE in the 2000-3000 range ahead of an advancing cold front along with deep layer shear is expected to result in strong to severe thunderstorms across east Kansas and much of Missouri this afternoon.
A few strong storms can not be ruled out with some cooler air aloft today. Drier air returns for most of the work week as high pressure settles into the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring lower PoPs and warmer temperatures.
235 PM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Summer-like temperatures are developing under the amplified ridge running along the Rockies from the southern border to the northern one. Low level moisture remains severely absent allowing afternoon humidity levels to plummet into the single digits and lower teens over the lower elevations. An arriving trough on Monday will promote deep mixing in this warm atmosphere along with building afternoon convection. The good news is the cooler Spring has allowed much of the snow to come off in an orderly fashion.
Monday will remain relatively mild, though likely a few degrees cooler than Sunday.
Despite the cooler temperatures though, there are still some fire weather concerns over interior western upper Michigan where winds are gusting up to 20 mph with RH values dipping into the mid to upper 20s, especially over Gogebic, Ontonagon, southern Houghton, Baraga, and Iron counties. Overnight lows are projected to be in the low to mid 40s.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 90s for most locations with hotter values up near Llano County. Latest runs of the high-res guidance actually sends a small complex of showers and storms resulting from this activity southward late this evening and overnight, but as of now any possible rainfall from this should remain just east of our area.
Current observations show northern AR in the low to mid 60s behind that main line with southern AR in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Record and near record heat will give way to cooler readings by the middle of the week as high pressure aloft shifts east of the area and the storm track drops farther south. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the low single digits to lower teens with poor overnight recoveries.
1112 AM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows cool front south of the region, with weak high pressure centered over eastern portions of the northern and central Plains. The pattern for the rest of the week becomes more unsettled, especially by late week, as a stronger long wave trough tracks across the western US and eventually into the Plains. Medium range models have been inconsistent on the track and speed of this trough for late week, but are trending faster and somewhat weaker in the latest runs.
222 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region on Monday with more showers and thunderstorms.
Mid to upper level troughing persists across the region today before shifting slightly east going into Monday. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 90's for most locations.
This is allowing for notably cooler temperatures for areas west of the mountains than were observed at this time yesterday.
/JNE/ Monday evening a weak cold front is expected to still be clearing our southeast most zones so wl maintain low chance pops into the evening.
Scattered diurnal cumulus has developed across much of the west and central as we have warmed into the low to mid 60s over most locations. A beautiful day is on tap with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s and a stiff breeze out of the northwest. Cyclonic flow continues over the north central CONUS as a closed upper level low slowly moves from the southern Canadian Prairies towards the Hudson Bay today. The state remains under the northwest flow that has brought windy conditions over the previous several days, however the stronger flow and pressure gradient is shifting to the east, with ridging and high pressure building from the west.
High pressure to move in on Monday but the low cloudiness will hang on through the morning.
Another round of showers and storms are possible early tomorrow morning ahead of and along a cold front. CIGs will drop to MVFR at all sites and west winds increase to 10kts behind the cold front. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 82 58 84 60 / 20 40 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 79 56 81 57 / 40 50 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 79 54 83 57 / 40 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 75 51 78 53 / 30 70 0 0 0.
High pressure to the east southeast this afternoon, will build more toward the southeast Tonight.
Situation is continually evolving ahead of a cold front that is draped across KS/MO and the CAMs have had difficulties of late. An outflow boundary that was draped along the highway 412 corridor early this morning from last night's storms has lifted north and washing out.
350 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 A weak, stagnant, upper-level trough axis remains anchored over the forecast area, keeping weak flow throughout the troposphere. Tomorrow morning, an aggressive mid-level trough will be sweeping eastward, digging into the Midwest and lifting through the Mid- Atlantic region, gaining a more negative tilt over time.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over Baja Sur, extending up through the Rockies and providing a warm, sunny afternoon for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Late tonight, a cold front will backdoor the area, but the colder air doesn't look to arrive in time to have any meaningful impact on lows. However, for those who like cooler temperatures, highs will come down 1-2F Monday afternoon as a result of the front, especially over the northern zones, and may remain double digit there.
The highest instability remains across Southeast Arkansas where CAPE values are around 5000 J/KG. Additional storms have developed along the Mississippi River on the edge of the humid airmass(dewpoints in the lower 70s) and the drier air(mid to upper 60s). A few showers may develop behind the storms along the trailing cold front when it moves into the area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the front. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s but should feel nice with lower humidity.
Upper low over the Eastern Gulf will retreat further east as a mid to upper level ridge builds back in across the Plains. Wedged between these two features, a cold front oriented from Michigan to Arkansas will push southeast. Otherwise, overnight lows will reach the low 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer as 850mb temps climb, so daytime highs will reach the mid 90s.
Breezy to windy northwest winds will also start to relax in the evening as the atmosphere decouples and ridging to our west begins to nudge in. The ridge axis will approach western North Dakota on Monday, deamplifying as a weak wave/warm air advection brings a chance of some showers. Highs will be a touch warmer on Monday with more ridging influence, ranging from the lower 60s across the Turtle Mountains to the mid to upper 70s over the southwest. The ridge will continue to flatten Monday night as the next weak wave approaches in nearly zonal flow aloft.
The cold front that is currently moving through the region will retreat back northward tomorrow as a warm front. A ridge of higher theta-e air will focus around and north of the warm front. The higher surface dew points that will advect into the area tonight will mix out a bit by late tomorrow afternoon under continued very warm temperatures.
255 PM MDT Sun May 15 2022 Upper ridge providing a dry and seasonal day across the area. High temperatures on Monday will be warmer with readings moving into the mid 70s for most of the area.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging is expected to bring dry weather and warmer temperatures to NE Montana for today. An upper level Pacific NW trough will deepen and slide east toward the middle of the week. As that trough pushes downstream of the region late in the week, look for gusty northwest winds to develop across the area with temperatures near or a few degrees below normal.
Ridging aloft will continue to build over the region through the period from west to east. A few ripples of energy may move across the eastern periphery of the upper level high, but since we are lacking moisture (PWATs below 1") and with subsidence occurring, not anticipating any rainfall over South Texas.
A weak disturbance will lower high temperatures around 6 degrees for Monday, and conditions will continue to run around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal through the remainder of this week. While the ridge axis is center closer to the Sonora, Mexico, its influence will still be felt across Central California today with temperatures climbing to temperatures last seen in early April.
115 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022 All Cams and short res modeling in some form or fashion bring the cold front in this evening, and initiate showers/storms along/ahead of it. Residual showers may continue a few hours w/lower clouds until the drier/cooler air can work in later tonight and esp tmrw.
A cold frontal approach on Monday morning will provide necessary support for ascent via jet and frontogenesis. Temperature will remain relatively cool after the cold frontal passage, with recovering high temperature in the mid 60s. The next chance of general restrictions arrives ahead of a cold front, which will cross Monday morning.
This is helping to trend temperatures a little cooler so far in the Delta and increase winds over the interior.
A deep- layered ridge with axis through the southeast Bahamas and central Cuba is expected to lift northward starting tonight, with CIMMS MIMIC imagery indicating a sharpening plume of greater-than-2 inch precipitable water in the northwestern Caribbean. Minor coastal flooding has been observed, within a few hours of the higher high tide in the lower and middle Keys, and remaining near constant along the bayside of the upper Keys.
1112 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 Light north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain located along the western flank of a nearly stationary mid-level trough extending from the southeastern CONUS into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Not finding any guidance showing temperatures getting much cooler than that at this point. 850mb temperatures cool a few degrees on Monday, so anticipate highs to be a little cooler than today.
Light north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain located along the western flank of a nearly stationary mid-level trough extending from the southeastern CONUS into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The weak CAA through the day will keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler tomorrow, with highs ranging from the upper 60s across the north to the lower to mid 70s near the Fox Valley.
This Evening Through Sunday Upper ridge is over the Rockies with northwest flow over the forecast area. Thermal ridge builds over the area Monday and with mostly clear skies for much of the day, so temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s. Another system approaches the area late Monday, with thunderstorms developing, especially from the Bear Lodge Mountains southeast across the Black Hills and southwetern SD where CAPE values are above 1500 j/kg with theta-e advection along the northern end of the low level jet, although storms shouldn't be able to become too strong late in the da.
Tonight through the day Monday expect weak high pressure to push in from the west bringing mostly clear skies throughout the day and overnight.
Using CONSShort guidance, highs will climb into the low 90s along and south of the I-20 corridor, with areas north experiencing upper 80s, particularly in regions of prolonged cloud cover or where showers and storms develop.
With subsidence associated with a mid level ridge moving over the area tonight, any low stratus or fog development is uncertain. Periodic upper level disturbances moving through the flow will bring chances for thunderstorms to the region as a frontal boundary oscillates north and south through the High Plains.