Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Along with hail one of the main threats for areas off the caprock is tornadoes as the warm front begins to push northward and the dryline pushes eastward. While PoPs are still present in the current forecast they have been lowered to slight chance and may need to be dropped depending on future evolution of the forecasted upper low.
413 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Weak low pressure will cross the area this evening.
A few wraparound showers are possible Wednesday afternoon, north of I-20, as the upper low moves east across North Texas. 04 (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Some wrap-around showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the northern Big Country Wedneday night as an upper low moves east our of the Panhandle.
1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A brief return of mid-level ridging over the Central Plains will maintain dry conditions despite persistent low level moisture beneath 850 hPa. Values will range from the mid 50s north of the I-70 corridor to the lower 60s for points south, where weak WAA will persist.
The warm and dry pattern will persist as mid/upper level ridging and weak surface pressure remain across the region.
with weaker storms driven by low amplitude upper level troughs. A long wave ridge continues to build into the west coast this morning.
215 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Latest analysis showed the upper low located over New Mexico this afternoon with abundant moisture streaming northward into the forecast area along the east side of the upper trough. Temperatures may cool enough this evening for some light snow to develop over the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Any snow accumulations there tonight would be light, generally an inch or two, with locally higher amounts possible on the highest peaks overnight. The precipitation will gradually end from north west to southeast tonight as the upper trough shifts the southerly flow of moisture to the east of the forecast area. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected on Wednesday with decreasing clouds and highs on the plains generally in the 50s.
308 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Upper level ridging will move into the region tonight and remain over the Ohio Valley Wed/Wed night. South central KY will likely reach the lower 70s. Slightly warmer lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s are expected for Wed night.
Low pressure over Indiana will depart the area early this morning. allowing high pressure to build across the Hoosier state. as the high moves through the region. another low pressure system over the southern plains will begin to push toward Indiana.
627 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight and stall near the CSRA.
High pressure keep VFR conditions in the forecast.
Statocu and cumulus have been rather persistent, but breaks and thin spots in the clouds have allowed many locations to experience temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s under the increasingly strong late March solar insolation. The axis of the upper level ride is expected to continue to move east and should move across the area Wednesday evening while the next in a series of upper level troughs/upper lows moves from the Southern Plains and begins to nears the MS Valley late. Despite high pressure building into the area, subsidence from mid and upper level ridging should help keep low level moisture and clouds in place.
Otherwise, skies will be clear through Wednesday with a warming trend, with highs mostly in the 80s in the valleys by Wednesday and lower 90s in the lower deserts.
An upper low is expected to move to the east through Kansas or Oklahoma, depending on the model. The models have some slight differences in the movement of the low as it moves east tonight and Wednesday.
The cold front was located near TCL/BHM/ANB with a good wind shift noted.
A low pressure system across west central New Mexico will bring isolated light showers to areas mainly east of Safford to Douglas line into this evening.
104 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 An area of low pressure will move along the Mason-Dixon line through tonight.
Due to a digging trough over the southern plains and another digging trough off the west coast, our impulse tracks very slowly to the east. With surface temperatures mostly above freezing, do not anticipate any significant freezing precipitation issues. Otherwise, we are expecting highs back up into the lower 50s north central, and the lower 60s over the west central into far southwest ND.
Upper trof/front moving across eastern Montana this afternoon. Flatter westerly flow followed behind the front with warmer and drier conditions. Ebert A new trough will dig into the western U.
203 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 High pressure will build in for the middle of the week, providing dry weather.
A cold front due to enter the region will switch winds at KDHT & KGUY to a northerly direction AFT 29/02Z. The upper low which will bring this moisture is moving across western New Mexico this morning. This low will help to spark showers across the western portions of the Panhandles as early as 6 AM. These storms are anticipated to move northeastward across the Panhandles as the upper low moves closer to the Panhandles over the course of the day. recent model runs have shown the track of the upper low to be slightly further south than previously indicated. This, as well as morning convection, will help to keep the warm front further south that previous thought.
423 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure exits tonight. High pressure passes Wednesday.
Forecast soundings do show that the low levels will stay saturated through the night, with an increase in mid-high clouds as upper low currently over New Mexico moves northeast into the Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight per the GFS and NAM as the upper ridge moves east and a band of strong moisture convergence sets up on the nose of a 40kt low level jet. This low level forcing combined with increased mid-upper ascent from approaching low will be enough to set up one round of showers and scattered thunderstorms late tonight and tomorrow morning.
209 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure crosses and then moves away today, with lingering NW flow showers.
256 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed an upper level low over New Mexico.
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure will pass to our south tonight. Behind this system, a northwesterly flow will introduce cooler and drier air into the region for the second half of the work week.
132 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest today and settle southeast of the area tonight into Wednesday. Drier weather will develop as high pressure builds southward from eastern Canada along the east coast.
01 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure across the SC/NC border along the Atlantic Coast. The drier airmass at the surface would favor cooler morning lows on Sunday.
926 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will continue through the period. /Issued 240 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ Models continue to show dry conditions through the short term and beyond as the area remains under high pressure influence. thin high clouds will try to spill over the upper ridge anchored over the deep south as a large low pressure system deepens over the southwest. mainly in the low to mid 40s. then maybe a couple degrees warmer Sunday night as the air mass modifies. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 70s for most areas under ample sunshine.
739 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A cold front, which brought the shower to South Florida today, is exiting the area to the south. /issued 443 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ This afternoon and evening: A decaying cold front is moving through the area as of 4:30 pm. As the ridge strengthens to the north of the area late Sunday into Sunday night, winds will gradually increase out of the east-northeast.
Northeast low level flow in the lowest 1-2 kft will continue near 20 knots through the night with a 5 MB pressure gradient from JAX to MIA this evening. Northeast winds will stay up along the immediate coast and beaches keeping low temps warmer in the upper 60s to around 70 along the coast to the lower 60s over the interior.
916 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A broad upper trough will be over the Northeast tonight and Sunday producing cool temperatures and scattered snow showers in the mountains with maybe an isolated shower or flurry elsewhere. By Sunday night the trough exits to the east allowing high pressure to build east.
820 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft building in over the region will maintain pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight through Sunday. With dew points running in the upper 50s to around 60 it will feel quite comfortable outdoors with low temperatures tonight bottoming out around 60 across the Nature Coast, lower 60s central zones, and mid 60s south with daytime highs on Sunday again climbing to around 80 to the lower 80s. A 4-5mb pressure gradient associated with high pressure to the north of the waters will maintain cautionary and small craft headlines over the near and offshore Gulf waters the remainder of tonight, with at least cautionary conditions likely to continue on Sunday as the gradient remains fairly tight.
902 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper ridge remains in place across much of the lower Midwest and Southeastern states this evening. Even with the clouds, the scattered nature of those clouds coupled with the light winds and lower dew points, will allow temps to fall into the lower 40s to lower 50s. The upper ridge remains in place across much of the ern half of the country on Sunday. Thus another dry day over the cwa with highs a little warmer than today, mainly in the mid 70s.
/issued 158 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ Upper low over AZ this morning.
717 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 For the 06/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail this period with mainly mid and high clouds continuing to spread over the area well out ahead of an upper low centered across the four corners region. /issued 306 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ High pressure across the Ohio River Valley continues to maintain north to northeast winds across the region. However, could see slightly warmer overnight low temperatures across portions of deep East Texas due to persistent cloud cover.
/issued 717 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ For the 06/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail this period with mainly mid and high clouds continuing to spread over the area well out ahead of an upper low centered across the four corners region.
High pressure is centered over the mid-Ohio Valley. Ridging extends north into WI/Lake MI. Aloft, an amplified 500mb ridge axis will move slowly east, and will be overhead by late Sunday.
940 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper trough will move through the north country overnight and early Sunday, with a slight chance of rain or snow showers.
631 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over the four corners region with surface lee troughing continuing to strengthen over western KS/eastern CO. With large scale ridging remaining over the Rockies/Plains, confidence is high that near or slightly above normal temps will remain for the Wed through Sat time frame.
The upper-level trough currently moving onshore in Washington and Oregon will weaken as it approaches the longwave ridge position over the central and western U. Precipitation will end across the area by Sunday evening as the upper-level ridge begins to rebuild.
727 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper trough will move through the north country overnight and early Sunday, with a slight chance of rain or snow showers.
Gilchrist Previous discussion:Upper ridge over the Northern Plains bringing sunshine and temperatures about 20 degrees above normal. Weak upper low over the four-corners states is helping to push some high clouds across the eastern zones tonight. A large upper trough centered off the West coast will be the next weather maker for the area.
919 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A weak trough of low pressure moving across the area is causing some light rain and snow showers for eastern Aroostook to central Penobscot.
A little fog was able to develop this morning, and given that winds will be light and temperatures will again be cool off pretty will under clear skies, will not rule out a little be forming again just in the low-lying areas. The models were in good agreement in pushing a cold front across the area on Sunday which will usher in breezy conditions. Based on frontal timing, temperatures will reach the lower to mid 60s.
737 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper trough will move through the north country overnight and early Sunday, with a slight chance of rain or snow showers.
A broken layer of cirrus continues to spread across the valley and mountain region this evening under the influence of high pressure.
620 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper level closed low at 500 mb currently over the four corners region will weaken and lift northward over the next 24 to 30 hours.
1108 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper trough will move through the north country overnight and early Sunday, with a slight chance of rain or snow showers.
It's the highest flight in over 6 months. The sounding doesn't "look" much different than 12 hours ago with a huge, extremely dry layer aloft, but the small increase in moisture in the lower levels resulted in a jump in precip water from 0. That is a result of the better established southeasterly flow in the lower levels which can be seen in the wind field in the column. /issued 311 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ Fair weather will continue through Sunday as the upper level ridge moves slowly east.
Johns counties starting around midnight as inverted trough sharpens over the waters tonight.
715 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure brings a stretch of dry and cool weather through the early workweek. A cold front pushes through mid week, with temperatures dropping to more seasonable values. High pressure remains in control through near term periods. Another ideal radiational cooling night is on tap, and dense river valley fog with once again form with freezing fog an issue in the mountain river valleys. High pressure remains in control through the short term.
859 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure just off to our east this evening will continue to drift slowly away from central Illinois over the next 24 hours. Based on the current temperature trends this evening and the expectation of the high level cloud cover to thin out late tonight, have lowered overnight lows a couple of degrees over most of the area. Still may be a few upper 30s tonight in that area given the proximity of the ridge axis, but most locations should bottom out in the low 40s. High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Ohio River valley to northeastern U.
/Issued 240 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ Models continue to show dry conditions through the short term and beyond as the area remains under high pressure influence. thin high clouds will try to spill over the upper ridge anchored over the deep south as a large low pressure system deepens over the southwest. mainly in the low to mid 40s. then maybe a couple degrees warmer Sunday night as the air mass modifies. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 70s for most areas under ample sunshine.
917 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure brings a stretch of dry and cool weather through the early workweek. A cold front pushes through mid week, with temperatures dropping to more seasonable values. High pressure remains in control through near term periods. Another ideal radiational cooling night is on tap, and dense river valley fog with once again form with freezing fog an issue in the mountain river valleys. High pressure remains in control through the short term.
646 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A persistent ridge over the Central CONUS will slowly progress eastward through the latter half of the weekend. This will maintain dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures both today and Sunday. Saturday highs will reach the lower 70s with Sunday highs dropping to the mid to upper 60s.
Leading edge of the upper-level trof that will bring increased clouds from west to east overnight is now in the Idaho Panhandle, perhaps just slightly slower than early model runs were indicating.
An upper low located near the Four Corners region this aftn is progged to move slowly east/northeast through Sunday. For tonight the flow aloft will continue to be southerly, then the flow aloft will weaken and become west/northwesterly on Sunday as the trough moves eastward. Weak mid level qg ascent coupled with some aftn instability has allowed for sct to nmrs rain and snow showers in the high country today, especially south of interstate 70. On Sunday, weak qg ascent will continue ahead of the upper trough axis with increasing mid level subsidence fm west to east.
847 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the region through Election Day.
928 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure moving through the southern Appalachians is supporting a 6. Similar observations have recently impacted Smith Shoal along the Gulf side of the Lower Keys. A second update is planned to reflect the higher winds and will reevaluate the tonight period rain chance at that time. Building high pressure across the eastern United States tightens the pressure gradient and freshens northeast winds to near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts.
With the rain that fell or is falling, thinking fog development is possible given the saturated low levels and clearing skies behind the trough passage. The Winter Weather Advisory will continue until 06z this evening as the main not-so-cold pocket of the trough travels over the San Juan mountains. The main trough aloft also travels over the San Juans and western CO this evening. Also increased areal coverage over the central mountains and central valleys late this afternoon and early evening as the main area of uplift north of the low center rotates overhead. By Sunday morning the main trough will be east of the area with orographic showers shifting to NW facing slopes. These should decrease throughout the day as the trough moves off to the NW.
948 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Quick update for cancellation of the snow advisory for the higher elevations of the Eastern San Juan mountains. Upper low over the 4 corners region will continue to weaken and lift out to the east northeast tonight. High res models keep majority of the activity along the CO/NM border through this evening, with showers weakening/dissipating as they lift northeastward towards the highway 50 corridor. However showers may hold together better towards Sunday morning as upper trof axis swings through. Temperatures tomorrow should be a little warmer out west given clearing conditions. Across the plains, temperatures will end up similar to a tad cooler across the far eastern areas versus those of today.
522 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn plains with cut off low over the four corners. broad trof covers the nrn Rockies/nrn plains. An upper trof will track along the US/Cndn border late Sunday and push a cool front into the cwfa. This upper trof will also pick up the cut off low currently over the four corners and eject it through the cntrl plains Sunday night.
940 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Despite some high clouds streaming into the region the deeper valleys have dropped off into the lower 40s this evening. High pressure remains in control tonight based off the latest surface analysis and trends. High pressure will continue to hold over the area through Sunday night, perhaps drifting just off to our east. Regardless, subsidence will continue under this high pressure ridge and set up another cool night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 30s. High temps in the lower 40s expected on the ridges. Highs tomorrow should be milder by a few degrees, but should be close to the highs we saw today. By Sunday night with the ridge edging east, lows may be a bit higher, but still expecting some readings into the 30s with more fog and frost possible.
720 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure remains in control tonight based off the latest surface analysis and trends. High pressure will continue to hold over the area through Sunday night, perhaps drifting just off to our east. Regardless, subsidence will continue under this high pressure ridge and set up another cool night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 30s. High temps in the lower 40s expected on the ridges. Highs tomorrow should be milder by a few degrees, but should be close to the highs we saw today. By Sunday night with the ridge edging east, lows may be a bit higher, but still expecting some readings into the 30s with more fog and frost possible.
High pressure over the area will give way to a cold front that will move very slowly across the forecast area overnight and then exit into Idaho on Sunday.
1154 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A broad upper trough will be over the Northeast tonight and Sunday producing cool temperatures and scattered snow showers in the mountains with maybe an isolated shower or flurry elsewhere. By Sunday night the trough exits to the east allowing high pressure to build east.
Weather conditions across the Southern Appalachian region should not impact flight operations again during the forecast period with another massive ridge in place.
A large upper low was evident in water vapor imagery over the four- corners region Saturday morning while a well-defined lead short wave trough was kicking northeast over the Oklahoma panhandle and another in eastern New Mexico. One area of lower clouds will build into central KS tonight into Sunday, and will probably lead to slightly warmer overnight lows and slightly cooler daytime highs in north central KS during that time frame. Otherwise, high cloud cover and a bit of a breeze overnight should keep things a bit warmer in the east tonight as well, with Sunday highs similar to today if not a degree or two cooler owing to the increased high cloud cover. There will be plenty of mid level moisture, while the lower levels may take some time to saturate.
Weak surface pressure gradient with high pressure over the region an dry low levels will lend to another night of quick temperature drops after sunset and also some readings back into the 30s in the eastern Ozarks. Will be a bit warmer out west again with some lows in the low to mid 40s. Trough out west will gradually shift eastward on Sunday with some light precipitation possible as early as late Sunday night out in our far western CWA.
An upper level closed low at 500 mb currently over the four corners region will weaken and lift northward over the next 24 to 30 hours.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is slowly building across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, high pressure is shifting slowly eastward across central Kansas.
623 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Low pressure is well east of the region this morning as we await the passage of the upper level trough. As this trough passes it will allow much cooler air to spill into the area.
A high cirrus deck was moving eastward into northwest Minnesota associated with the first push of warm advection and frontogenesis marking the approaching warm front. Temperatures at 4 AM ranged from the low 20s over portions of Koochiching County to the middle 30s under the low stratus across my south. The low stratus layer will slowly move eastward this morning, but should linger until late morning when it should mix out. Ahead of the trough, the warm front will advance across the Dakotas and into my western zones tonight. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal for today as the surface warm front remains west of the Northland. Look for highs today in the low 40s in the high terrain of northeast Minnesota and around 50 degrees in my southwest.