Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
641 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Water vapor satellite shows an upper level low spinning over western Nebraska continuing to trek eastward into the northern Plains. Surface observations also show a stout cold front draped from northeast Kansas to south-central Kansas. This cold front continues to push southeastward across the state, and most of Kansas, with the exception of far southeast Kansas, will be in the cooler and drier post-frontal airmass by late this morning.
953 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week, keeping temperatures above normal through Thursday. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area.
528 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area.
723 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Expect dry and warm conditions with high pressure still in place. A cold front will arrive on Thursday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Dry weather is expected today as high pressure throughout the column moves east across the Ohio Valley region. Low pressure undergoing cyclolysis will propagate eastward from the southern Midwest, in tandem with a cold front lent by low pressure near Hudson Bay. The upper level low will then meander around the Upper Great Lakes as broad trough troughing remains over the region.
402 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Return flow will will continue throughout the day ahead of a cold front that will move through the region late tonight into Thursday morning.
Have expanded low precipitation chances a little north, but trimmed back the higher chances over the far south, as what is making it over the border so far is quite limited. For today, aforementioned upper low will move to the east/northeast passing over the eastern South Dakota/Nebraska border around mid-day, sliding over the Iowa/Nebraska border by evening. This will result in the coldest night we have had so far over the area, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s.
Low pressure is centered over eastern Nebraska early this morning with a trailing cold front extending across central Kansas and western Oklahoma. The cold front is expected to move across the region during the afternoon and evening. A noticeable cool down will occur behind the front on Thursday with temperatures topping out in the 60s as a Canadian high pressure builds into the area.
540 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 The potent mid-level cyclone that moved across the region the past 24-36 hours has exited stage right and is now trekking into the northern Plains. Water vapor imagery reveals subsident northwest flow in the system's wake as a ridge builds in across the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Other than some mid/high level clouds (associated with a stream of moisture rounding the base of a deep trough off the West Coast) spilling eastward over the ridge, expect a fair amount of sunshine today across most of the Western Slope. Thus, anticipate overnight lows to be a few degrees warmer than where they bottom out this morning.
For today, aforementioned upper low will move to the east/northeast passing over the eastern South Dakota/Nebraska border around mid-day, sliding over the Iowa/Nebraska border by evening. This will result in the coldest night we have had so far over the area, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s.
918 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will warm over the next few days.
720 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week, keeping temperatures above normal through Thursday. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area.
541 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure continues today with temperatures moderating. A cold front arrives Thursday with the next chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. A ridge aloft will hold today providing dry weather with temperatures moderating several degrees over the previous day. As an upper level trough and an associated cold front approach from the west tonight, the area will see an increase in clouds and milder overnight lows. Precipitation chances increase ahead of a cold front Thursday, with the greatest likelihood of showers and storms from mid to late day as the front crosses through.
This change will be due to a weak wave ejecting off of a Pacific trough and moving through the Panhandle of Idaho and northwest Montana.
617 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 (12Z TAFS) Satellite shows that MVFR CIGS have made it to near Big Lake while cold front looks to be near LBB. (Today through Thursday afternoon) Water vapor shows mid/upper low centered INVOF wrn NE with assocd cold front moving thru the TX Panhandle. S of the front, across the Trans Pecos from the e side of the Davis Mtns into the Lower Trans Pecos, low-level mstr will hold within a steep mid-level LR environment resulting in the possibility of a few SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon. Mostly there will be little sensible change to the temps today, but richer mstr and proximity of higher surface pressure will attempt to keep temps cooler across the far e and se PB.
410 AM PDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Warmer days through Thursday with weak high pressure aloft and weak onshore flow.
There will be a break in the precipitation threat late this morning and early this afternoon, then scattered showers and a few storms will develop late this afternoon and early this evening along the cold front as it moves southeastward through our area. Although excessive rainfall amounts or severe storms are not expected with only modest low level moisture and instability and only weak convergence along the cold front, could not rule out a few storms with brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and strong wind gusts late this afternoon and early this evening.
KBYX is only detecting a few light showers that are currently passing over the Lower and Middle Keys. These showers are likely being caused by a wind surge, as the highest winds of the morning have been recorded at Alligator Reef Light and Carysfort Reef Light thus far today. High pressure centered over the southeast is currently supporting moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the southeastern United States will slide east into the western North Atlantic this afternoon through Wednesday night.
A trough of low pressure will push across the area today through this evening, bringing widespread showers to the CWA. The 500 mb trough is currently over west-central Nebraska with elevated showers and thunderstorms noted over southeastern SD. Cooler temps on the back side of the trough is causing a transition from showers to snow, mainly in southwestern South Dakota. Buffer soundings for KABR from the NAM/GFS both support a transition to snow as the warmer layer above the surface is very shallow. The low pressure system should depart the region to the east tonight, with light pcpn remaining in the far eastern CWA until 3Z or so.
Clouds are increasing across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as moisture advances from the south and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
By Fri, a flat upper level ridge will build over the area, with dry westerly flow aloft. On Sat, the flow aloft will become more WSW, as a sfc lee trough is along the front range. For late Sat night into Sun, a quick moving upper level trough may affect the area. The Canadian Model is more like the GFS with a weaker trough. In addition, there will be some cooler air behind a weak front, which will drop highs back to more seasonal levels. Looking ahead to Mon, an upper level ridge will rebuild across the area with mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures. By Tue, another upper level trough may affect the area, bringing another chc of snow to the mtns.
/issued 402 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021/ Return flow will will continue throughout the day ahead of a cold front that will move through the region late tonight into Thursday morning.
Weak ridging over SETX this morning will continue into Thursday. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coast (and along/east of the trough) and over the coastal waters this morning gradually shifting eastward through early afternoon. Temperatures on the increase and should be a degree or so warmer this afternoon and again tonight. Rain chances diminish tonight and remain low Thursday with westerly flow aloft and weak ridging still in place over SETX.
The low level trough axis moving east so am fairly confident that the MVFR ceilings should be short lived. Weak ridging over SETX this morning will continue into Thursday. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coast (and along/east of the trough) and over the coastal waters this morning gradually shifting eastward through early afternoon. Temperatures on the increase and should be a degree or so warmer this afternoon and again tonight. Rain chances diminish tonight and remain low Thursday with westerly flow aloft and weak ridging still in place over SETX.
513 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Latest trough continues to sweep east across central Nebraska this morning, with wraparound northwest winds across eastern WY and the Nebraska Panhandle. The NW flow has been able to produce a couple snow bands off the highest mountains recently, but moisture is more limited, causing only light flurries. Weak H5 ridging will build across WY today, with quickly moderating conditions, as highs recover into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Quieter weather ahead with a ridge of high pressure building across the western CONUS, effectively cutting off any significant weather into the area through the weekend.
446 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 A cold front will bring showers on Thursday. No changes were needed for the even update as eroding high pressure wl maintain dry weather tonight although strengthening WSW flow aloft will increase high, and eventually mid level cloudiness.
We will have changes by tomorrow as the dry high pressure we have enjoyed gives way to a cold front passage. Otherwise, atmospheric moisture and instability are unimpressive with the main low pressure driving the front located well north over the Great Lakes.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 1133 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Latest trough continues to sweep east across central Nebraska this morning, with wraparound northwest winds across eastern WY and the Nebraska Panhandle. The NW flow has been able to produce a couple snow bands off the highest mountains recently, but moisture is more limited, causing only light flurries. Weak H5 ridging will build across WY today, with quickly moderating conditions, as highs recover into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Quieter weather ahead with a ridge of high pressure building across the western CONUS, effectively cutting off any significant weather into the area through the weekend.
331 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week, keeping temperatures above normal through Thursday. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area.
High pressure over the Southeastern U. The high will continue to support pleasant dry weather with an easterly wind flow over the entire forecast area through tonight.
336 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Skies have mostly cleared across north central Kansas today with persistent cloud cover still lingering across much of south central Nebraska behind a departing area of low pressure. surface temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area overnight.
This instability should be enough for storms to form in the mountains and spread east into the lower Trans Pecos and possibly eastern Permian Basin.
Cold front has pushed into NE OK with a narrow corridor of dense stratus preceding the boundary. Clouds are increasing across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as moisture advances from the south and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Upper level trough over Southeast Oregon will continue showers across Southwest Idaho through noon MDT. Winds have increased behind the trough with gusts across SE Oregon reaching 30 MPH. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 60s in the lower valleys.
Dry conditions will continue today but moisture return is occurring as the ridge axis shifts to the east. Southerly flow in the low- levels is also forecast today as the low-level high shifts further to the east off the Carolina and Georgia coast. The parent low will pull a cold front into the region and return showers and thunderstorms to the forecast. The cold front will push through the forecast area by Thursday night and returning dry conditions by late Thursday night. Behind the front there will be cooler and drier air filtering in, however it will not be as robust as what we experienced with our last frontal passage.
243 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Clear skies have developed early this afternoon as drier air and subsidence spread east behind this morning's cold front and on the south side of the upper low near FSD. Guidance remains rather consistent with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, coolest in the west where the high cloud would move in first. Have shaded temps on the cooler side of model means for Thursday and Thursday night with high cloud spreading east and thickening through the day, then clearing in the evening with modest north-northwest winds becoming light overnight.
) Isolated to scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight with the passage of a cold front.
High pressure will be over region Today, then become centered to the east Tonight through Thursday. Subsidence under this high will keep dry weather in the forecast this period. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid 80s are expected.
253 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week, keeping temperatures above normal through Thursday. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area.
1225 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Dry and warm weather continues through tonight with departing high pressure. A cold front will arrive on Thursday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
1258 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 For the 20/18Z TAF period, VFR will largely prevail this period as a weak cold front will gradually begin to enter our airspace this evening through the overnight hours. /Today through Thursday/ Wednesday's pattern will see the upper level ridge which has dominated the story for the past several days continue to weaken and drift northeast over the Great Lakes region. Rain chances will return Thursday morning, primarily across McCurtain county and southwest Arkansas as an upper level trough clips us to the north. As Thursday continues, winds will become westerly, shifting to northerly as a weak frontal boundary associated with the upper level trough makes its way southward through the region.
A few of the storms on the warmer side of the system (eastern MN) have been strong with some small hail, but have remained well below severe limits. The dry slot will fill in with additional showers as the low continues east across southern MN. Clouds will linger behind the showers for several hours, but mid level ridging and much drier air will bring the back edge of the low cloud cover through the region Thursday morning.
As a high pressure remains to our north and in control of the nice weather we have been having, tonight will be another night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The latter portion of the week features loss of influence of Atlc high pressure, as it retreats to the east over the open Atlantic.
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Water vapor satellite shows an upper level low spinning over western Nebraska continuing to trek eastward into the northern Plains. Surface observations also show a stout cold front draped from northeast Kansas to south-central Kansas. This cold front continues to push southeastward across the state, and most of Kansas, with the exception of far southeast Kansas, will be in the cooler and drier post-frontal airmass by late this morning.
A weak cold front making its way into the into the region this afternoon/evening has some higher potential to stall near or north of the I-20 corridor tonight. Ceiling heights range from 1500 to 2500 feet across most terminals as of 18Z, with TEMPO groups being used for the low cloud potential across all terminals except KSOA.
TODAY: The large upper level low continues to spin across the Tri- state area early this afternoon. We're continuing to see scattered convection redevelop on the eastward side of the upper low, in an area of slightly enhanced mid-lvl lapse rates. TONIGHT: The upper low will continue to move eastward tonight, though eventually moisture aloft will start to dissipate. Clouds should hold temperatures upwards through the night, but gradual cold advection at the surface will still push lows towards the lower to middle 30s.
So the next two days are quiet as a brief and low amplitude (thus weak) upper level ridge transits the area. In spite of the few clouds and the trough, temperatures will continue to warm.
245 PM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Current surface analysis shows low over far southern MN, with high pressure centered to the north of the region. Milder and drier weather will return for the next several days, at least through the weekend, as a building ridge over the Great Basin and Rockies will hold on for a while.
A weak cold front making its way into the into the region this afternoon/evening has some higher potential to stall near or north of the I-20 corridor tonight.
1223 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will warm over the next few days.
Winds remain gusty as well, with the gradient persisting through 03-06Z, but weakening thereafter (though mixing and high humidity will keep temperatures probably above freezing despite clearing).
High pressure centered over the southeast is currently supporting moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Winds will become more easterly as the aforementioned high pressure shifts eastward off the southeast coast. The frontal boundary that passed across the island chain a few days ago and that is currently lingering south of Cuba will make a return as a warm front and remain in the vicinity of the Keys for a few days, bringing lower heights aloft along with it.
1106 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Upper level analysis shows low pressure moving along the southeast SD/northeast NE border late this morning. Lingering areas of rain and snow continue to wrap around the low from parts of northwest SD to central SD. Moisture continues to circle around the low, still rain on much of the SD plains, but changing to snow farther west. Precipitation will shift out of our area today as the low pushes eastward, and most parts of the CWA will see clearing skies and decreasing winds. Milder and drier weather can be expected through the rest of the week, as an upper ridge builds behind the exiting low.
228 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Rounds of showers and storms today will continue into the overnight hours as a low pressure system currently situated on the Iowa/Minnesota boarder moves east into Wisconsin tonight. As the cyclone moves east tonight, its cold front will pass through providing forcing for additional showers. The cyclone begins to occlude as it approaches helping the rain shield to wrap around the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. Cooler temperatures and gusty winds are expected tomorrow thanks to northerly flow behind the cold front. Most areas will see high temperatures in the low to mid 50s with sustained winds of 10-15 knots and gusts up to 20-25 knots. Once the system currently impacting the area moves out of the region, a large area of high pressure looks to settle in for a couple of days.
Have hedged towards cooler forecast highs, especially across central Missouri.
1155 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 The potent mid-level cyclone that moved across the region the past 24-36 hours has exited stage right and is now trekking into the northern Plains. Water vapor imagery reveals subsident northwest flow in the system's wake as a ridge builds in across the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Other than some mid/high level clouds (associated with a stream of moisture rounding the base of a deep trough off the West Coast) spilling eastward over the ridge, expect a fair amount of sunshine today across most of the Western Slope. Thus, anticipate overnight lows to be a few degrees warmer than where they bottom out this morning.
The trailing cold front will move from the Mid Mississippi Valley early tonight into the western Tennessee Valley Thursday morning and then into the eastern Tennessee Valley by Thursday evening. Lows a few degrees warmer than past nights. Dry and cooler Fri and Sat with near normal temps.
In it's wake, a ridge of high pressure at the surface is progged to nose into the Central Plains later tonight bringing decreasing wind speeds and some enhanced radiational cooling to portions of the area.
A low pressure back towards southwest MN will continue to track along this front with rain showers and occasional lightning occurring mainly north of the front due to isentropic lifting. Showers will continue as the low tracks from west to east across the southern third of WI. Much cooler air will be in place and tomorrow will likely be the coolest day since last May for many locations, with highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
137 PM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Very stormy conditions are expected for the West Coast for the next several days that will help to induce a ridge over Montana.
330 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Precipitation chances return overnight and through the short-term forecast period as the upper-level ridging flattens in response to the short wave moving through the Great Lakes region. Associated cold front approaches during the day Thursday and settles into the forecast area Thursday night.
The synoptic pattern shows a Rockies H5 cyclone moving into the Northern Plains with the surface cyclone moving into the Upper Midwest. The trailing cold front extends south through the Plains and will move into the Mississippi River valley late tonight but not into east Tennessee until Thursday afternoon.
Kept highs in the low to mid 40s. Have expanded low precipitation chances a little north, but trimmed back the higher chances over the far south, as what is making it over the border so far is quite limited. For today, aforementioned upper low will move to the east/northeast passing over the eastern South Dakota/Nebraska border around mid-day, sliding over the Iowa/Nebraska border by evening. This will result in the coldest night we have had so far over the area, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s.
Highest confidence in this is north of the Pine Ridge in Niobrara County, WY, as well as Sioux and Dawes counties in NE.
945 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Upper level analysis shows low pressure moving along the southeast SD/northeast NE border late this morning. Lingering areas of rain and snow continue to wrap around the low from parts of northwest SD to central SD. Moisture continues to circle around the low, still rain on much of the SD plains, but changing to snow farther west. Precipitation will shift out of our area today as the low pushes eastward, and most parts of the CWA will see clearing skies and decreasing winds. Milder and drier weather can be expected through the rest of the week, as an upper ridge builds behind the exiting low.
242 PM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Low cloud continue to clear across the lower elevations today, as upper level ridging builds in from the west. Upper level ridging will dominate the pattern throughout the short term period, bringing dry conditions and a warming trend to the area.