Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1021 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 Some lingering light showers or sprinkles are still ongoing at the time of this writing in the northern Big Horn Basin and Mountains, and in northern Johnson County from a cold front that affected areas east of the Divide this morning.
The activity will become more plentiful late tonight as a very slow moving cold front approaches from the west. The activity will end from west to east Tursday night as the cold front exits the region. Winds will remain out of the south at 5 to 10 knots until the winds shift to the northwest as a cold front moves through during the early evening on Thursday. Overnight, skies will grow more overcast as a cold front approaches from the west and patchy fog may develop as temperatures cool amid steady dewpoints.
326 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The upper low that has been influencing conditions across the area will continue to dominate weather across the CWA today as it slides east across Arkansas. Precipitation will end west to east tonight as the upper level low gets caught in the upper level flow and moves quickly NE. Surface ridging and NW upper level flow will dominate the forecast through the weekend.
The forecast is still on track for a drier and warmer Thursday and Friday, with temperatures reaching their peak on Thursday.
1145 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Lobes of energy rotating westward from a a stalled upper low spinning over the Ozarks will support continued showers through Thursday early evening, especially across southeast Kansas. Friday looks like a 5-star day as Canadian high pressure oozes south into Mid-America.
Upper level flow this morning consisting of a ridge extending northward from the Pacific NW through British Columbia. Over the lower 48, nearly stagnant cutoff low was centered over northwest AR. A secondary cold front extended from northern MN to southwest SD.
356 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 This morning the upper low is spinning over the corners of the 4-state region connecting Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Off to the north, a disturbance is tracking along the Canadian/US border, with associated energy/front moving southeast across the High Plains of western Nebraska. This disturbance/front helps to kick the upper low over the Southern Plains off to the Southeast and it is a welcome change from the upper pattern that has impacted the region for much of the week thus far. The showers to the northwest are associated with the front/disturbance approaching the area and showers to the southeast are wrapping around the upper low.
1240 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 A large upper low remains centered southeast of the forecast area, leading to periodic cloud cover as pieces of energy rotate around it. Tonight, a cold front will push through the area.
Much cooler and dry conditions will then follow later Friday evening into this weekend. Expect ongoing isolated to scattered showers early Friday morning to grow upscale as strong northern stream trough and attendant cold front sweeps in/through. Otherwise surface ridging expected through the weekend with dry and quite cool conditions with highs 60s/lows 40s. Moderation through the work week as ridge slides to Southeast Coast.
Today Through Friday Night The upper low continues to spin over far WRN AR into ERN OK early this Thu morning. A few SHRA and an occasional TSRA have continued this morning in proximity to this upper low over some portions of the CWA. Some patchy fog has formed just to the east of the upper low in the area of calm wind and clear sky. The aforementioned upper low will continue to slowly rotate through this evening. As the upper low moves east. Looks like the best chances for the stronger storms will be across the SRN corner of the state just to the SE of the upper low center. the upper low will be shifting east of the state. with a cold front dropping SE through the state.
(Today and tonight) The upper level cyclone continues to exit to the east and is currently on the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. Some lingering light showers continues across Oklahoma, movement south/southeasterly influenced primarily by the cyclone while the upper level low continues to shift eastward.
The pesky upper low near the Oklahoma/Arkansas boarder will gradually open up Thursday into Thursday night as it is absorbed into a northern stream trough. The lower coverage of clouds and rain will also mean higher temps, with highs on Thursday in the upper 80s and low 90s with mid 80s along the coast. Rain chances increase after midnight Thursday night as the previously mentioned trough moves east into our area.
High pressure will strengthen over the region through Friday resulting in hot, mid-summer conditions. This high will move east during the upcoming weekend allowing a southerly flow aloft to develop across the region. The upstream ridge will continue to amplify the next couple of days while gradually shifting over Utah.
The stout 500mb trough that's been loitering over the southern plains continues to meander eastward over the ArkLaTex today. To the east of this feature, continual warm air advection has kept surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s on the leeward side of the low. Overnight, as the trough churns north northeast, increasing rain chances will develop westward across the northern half of Missouri and eventually into western Missouri and eastern Kansas through the morning. This cold front and the building upper ridge over the Four Corners will promote the final eastward progression of the low that's been lingering the past few days. Drier conditions will prevail Friday and generally through the weekend as a ridge continues to hold over the Inter-mountain West.
1025 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 19z surface analysis had cold front from northeast SD to KPHP to KDGW. Water vapour showed upper low south central Canada with trailing trough into western WY. Trough bringing post frontal synoptic lift over 100-500J/kg MLCAPE. Thursday, lingering showers will exit the CWA as upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Friday, return flow begins in earnest as upper ridge axis shifts into MT/WY.
These gusty winds are due to daytime mixing tapping into higher winds aloft, as well as from a reinforcing cold front moving through the region. The cool, dry air mass behind the reinforcing cold front will allow temps to dip into the 40s, although continued winds and linger scattered clouds should prevent temps from dipping further.
Today through Friday An approaching cold front will cause showers and embedded thunderstorms to spread from northwest to southeast across southern Wisconsin through the day. The highest rainfall totals will be across central Wisconsin, with decreasing amounts across the southeast. Highs today are expected to generally be in the lower to middle 70s, with upper 70s across far southeast Wisconsin. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will then build in across the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, ushering in a cool, dry airmass across the western Great Lakes region.
304 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Northerly flow aloft will persist today as we remain sandwiched between an upper low to our east and a building ridge to the west. However, the early day cloud cover, coupled with weak surface ridging nosing in from the north, will keep temperatures a little cooler than yesterday for most spots. Regardless, it will be a fine afternoon as highs reach the lower to middle 80s.
Slightly cooler airmass and breezy conditions will lead to temperatures in the mid 70s.
149 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Aviation - Showers and thunderstorms through this evening - Showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night - Fair and much cooler weather this weekend - Showers and thunderstorms through this evening - An upper level disturbance approaching our area from far northwest OH will combine with the lake breeze to cause continued convective development through this evening. - Showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night - An approaching cold front will combine with an upper level system moving in from the southwest to bring more convection Thursday. - Fair and much cooler weather this weekend - A high pressure ridge will build in behind the cold front and bring fair wx with much cooler temps for the weekend.
525 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Clearing skies today as high pressure moves into the region with a few showers possible across northern Minnesota in the afternoon. Light showers over southern Price county are slowly dissipating as a cold front moves east, and look to move out of the CWA by the late morning hours. 06Z model soundings near INL have dry air in the lower levels this afternoon, so very little accumulation is likely. Partly cloudy skies are in store for Friday as high pressure settles over the Upper Midwest.
Very strong high pressure will dominate the weather this week with well above normal temperatures continuing in northern Arizona.
/issued 430 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas this morning and early afternoon.
858 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Surface cold front continues to slowly push south, with a low stratus deck currently spreading over north central and northeast North Dakota. Cold front now moving into northern North Dakota with some cloud cover also reachng the border. Today, a cold front will move into the state from Saskatchewan and Manitoba, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds.
639 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Unsettled conditions expected through the end of the week with low pressure lifting into the area today followed by an upper trough crossing the area late in the week.
Dewpoint temperatures are in the upper 70s, and low temps across the island this morning in the the low 80s. With the lower tropospheric Atlantic ridge axis cutting across south Florida and the Keys, flow will remain relatively light throughout the boundary layer, with surface flow out of the southeast. While this may favor cloud streamers mainly off the larger islands of the lower Keys, conditions are not very favorable for waterspout formation.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible late this morning into the afternoon as one of these troughs rotates through the Tennessee Valley. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 64 83 63 81 / 50 30 60 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 64 81 62 79 / 50 30 70 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 63 81 61 79 / 40 20 60 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 62 81 59 77 / 50 40 70 50 20.
Current WV satellite reveals an upper low over E OK/W AR, an upper ridge over the western CONUS, and several perturbations in the northwesterly flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into E NM/W TX. For Thursday, expect the upper low to continue to churn eastward with another day of partly cloudy conditions with northeasterly surface winds across the CWA. Turning to Friday, the upper low looks to rejoin the main flow as it heads over the OH/TN Valley.
638 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Cold front now moving into northern North Dakota with some cloud cover also reachng the border. Today, a cold front will move into the state from Saskatchewan and Manitoba, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds.
430 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas this morning and early afternoon.
312 AM MDT Thu May 28 2020 An upper ridge will build into the Rockies today with 30 to 50 meter rises over the forecast area. This ridging should suppress much if not all convection, but cannot rule out a stray shower near the mountains decaying quickly as they push east southeast into adjacent foothills. Most areas will also see highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday. On Friday, the upper ridge will remain in place, but weak disturbances moving through the ridge and slight instability will allow for isolated to locally scattered diurnal thunderstorms mainly over the north.
721 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Clearing skies today as high pressure moves into the region with a few showers possible across northern Minnesota in the afternoon. Light showers over southern Price county are slowly dissipating as a cold front moves east, and look to move out of the CWA by the late morning hours. 06Z model soundings near INL have dry air in the lower levels this afternoon, so very little accumulation is likely. Partly cloudy skies are in store for Friday as high pressure settles over the Upper Midwest.
623 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The upper low that has been influencing conditions across the area will continue to dominate weather across the CWA today as it slides east across Arkansas. Precipitation will end west to east tonight as the upper level low gets caught in the upper level flow and moves quickly NE. Surface ridging and NW upper level flow will dominate the forecast through the weekend.
240 AM PDT Thu May 28 2020 High pressure will continue hot weather today with moderate to high heat risk. A pattern change begins Friday which will lead to cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Hot weather will continue today as the strong ridge remains overhead, though the upper ridge axis will begin to shift east by this afternoon.
An amplifying ridge over the Western CONUS will slowly track to the east over the Desert Southwest and the Southern Rockies. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop across the higher elevations to the west of the Tri-State area this afternoon. Temperatures today will be around normal with highs ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s and lows in the low to mid-50s. Friday, the amplifying ridge will continue to progress eastward, coming over the Tri-State area. A closed upper low will push ashore over the Central California coastline, becoming an open wave and being absorbed into an upper trough over the PAC NW later this weekend. High temperatures will be warmer, ranging from the upper 70s in the eastern CWA to the mid-80s in the western part.
Persistent upper low over Arkansas continues to creep eastward. Ahead of the upper low, deep southwesterly flow remains in place across the forecast area.
333 AM MDT Thu May 28 2020 Mainly dry weather conditions will continue over the next few days along with a warming trend in temperatures as high pressure remains over the region.
1000 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 It's already very warm and humid out with temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s as of 10 am. Looking at another day of scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms, with the highest concentration across the interior and far north. Afternoon temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s along the Space and Treasure Coasts, and up into the low 90s inland and in Volusia County. Temps remain on the warm/muggy side, just slightly above normal for late May, in the low to mid 70s.
By Friday morning, a broad upper trough axis will begin drifting into Deep S TX and serve to stabilize our region from N-S by mid/late afternoon.
With the edge of an upper trough skirting South Dakota and northwesterly flow aloft, cooler temperatures are expected through Friday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be about 5 degrees cooler than climo averages. Clouds will sweep back in to the region on Friday as low pressure moves off the Rockies.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Latest GOES-16 WV imagery shows a manifestive mid/upper level low spinning over the OK/AR border.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the Northern Rockies today as temperatures climb another 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday. A few of the latest model runs are indicating a weak feature trying to make its way through the ridge late tonight into Friday morning. Temperatures will continue to rise on Friday as the ridge is still the dominant features.
Low pressure system over Arkansas continues to funnel ample Gulf moisture into the region, causing light showers and cloudy skies to remain ongoing. By mid-morning we should see a relative lull in activity, as the aforementioned low pressure system and sfc cold front edges closer to KY. Otherwise, expect any lingering shower activity to gradually wane after sunset, with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s. Cold front, which will snap us out of the early summer pattern we've been in this week, will be on our doorstep Friday morning.
/issued 304 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020/ Northerly flow aloft will persist today as we remain sandwiched between an upper low to our east and a building ridge to the west. However, the early day cloud cover, coupled with weak surface ridging nosing in from the north, will keep temperatures a little cooler than yesterday for most spots. Regardless, it will be a fine afternoon as highs reach the lower to middle 80s.
613 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 (Today and tonight) The upper level cyclone continues to exit to the east and is currently on the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. Some lingering light showers continues across Oklahoma, movement south/southeasterly influenced primarily by the cyclone while the upper level low continues to shift eastward.
615 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 This morning the upper low is spinning over the corners of the 4-state region connecting Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Off to the north, a disturbance is tracking along the Canadian/US border, with associated energy/front moving southeast across the High Plains of western Nebraska. This disturbance/front helps to kick the upper low over the Southern Plains off to the Southeast and it is a welcome change from the upper pattern that has impacted the region for much of the week thus far. The showers to the northwest are associated with the front/disturbance approaching the area and showers to the southeast are wrapping around the upper low.
Another round of convection is forecast to develop over the higher terrain this afternoon and will move S-SE with time. An upper high building up over the Desert Southwest will begin shifting east toward the state today and will lead to warmer temperatures across far western NM. Low level easterly upslope flow will help keep a lid on temperatures across eastern NM today, which will be around 5 degrees cooler than yesterday's. PWATs will continue a gradual uptrend into Friday as the upper high shifts further east into NM, leading to warmer temperatures most areas.
/issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020/ Upper low still nearly stationary across OK and AR this morning. The low will begin to open up and lift out to the northeast resulting in a weak front entering into the region this afternoon into tonight.
445 AM MDT Thu May 28 2020 Deep upper trough continues to traverse the northern CONUS this morning. Additional showers may also develop over the high terrain of the Black Hills late this morning, before a strong subsidence inversion builds into the area this afternoon and limits instability. Cooler day expected most places today as a frontal zone stalls over the region with ample mid clouds limiting sun across the SW half.
1146 AM MDT Thu May 28 2020 Deep upper trough continues to traverse the northern CONUS this morning. Additional showers may also develop over the high terrain of the Black Hills late this morning, before a strong subsidence inversion builds into the area this afternoon and limits instability. Cooler day expected most places today as a frontal zone stalls over the region with ample mid clouds limiting sun across the SW half.
An upper level low over Arkansas region will continue to slowly shift northeastward tonight into Friday and will merge into an upper level trough that is moving eastward across Northern CONUS. As the low gets pulled into it, the southern end of the trough will tilt southwestward, reaching into the Central Texas area Friday morning. Environment along the northern sections of the CWA will not be as favorable for rain development as the southern sections, thanks to the incoming dry air and high pressure building over North and Central Texas. Expect a return to more normal temps for early June in the lower 90s for highs by the end of the weekend.
However, additional showers and storms may begin to approach the coast by morning, as another slug of deep moisture is pulled north by the approaching longwave trough.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the Four State Region, are rotating around an upper level low pressure system which is located over norhern Arkansas. The upper low will begin to fill late this evening as a surface front pushes south across the area.
Weakening and slowly dissipating closed low, spinning over Arkansas at midday, continues to influence SW KS weather. Variable amounts of mid and high clouds continue to rotate southward, on the backside of the cyclone's circulation. During the course of the short term, through tonight and Friday, cloud cover will gradually diminish as the cyclone finally pulls away. The cyclone continues to control local pressure gradients, with N/NE winds gusting to near 30 mph this afternoon. A warming trend will begin Friday, especially western zones, as high pressure aloft begins to build overhead. Have ghost pops in for now, but doubt this will measure anything significant as the low levels are expected to remain fairly dry. All through the weekend and into the next business week, a 500-hPa ridge will build right on top of Central to Southern Plains.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will again develop during the afternoon, especially across the Highway 82 corridor.
Weakening and slowly dissipating closed low, spinning over Arkansas at midday, continues to influence SW KS weather. Variable amounts of mid and high clouds continue to rotate southward, on the backside of the cyclone's circulation. During the course of the short term, through tonight and Friday, cloud cover will gradually diminish as the cyclone finally pulls away. The cyclone continues to control local pressure gradients, with N/NE winds gusting to near 30 mph this afternoon. A warming trend will begin Friday, especially western zones, as high pressure aloft begins to build overhead.
212 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020 19z surface analysis had high pressure over eastern MT nosing into the CWA. Friday, upper ridge over the western CONUS edges eastward. Lee trough/warm front develops under warm air advection regime from central MT into central WY.
Overall, the risk for any severe weather appears quite low due to the low instability, weak shear, and poor mid level lapse rates. Activity will redevelop Friday morning and especially Friday afternoon as the main upper trough axis shifts eastward across the Tennessee Valley and a cold front pushes through Middle Tennessee. Despite the upper trough and frontal boundary, severe risk once again looks minimal to non- existent due to low CAPE/shear and poor lapse rates aloft, but cannot rule out a strong storm or two.
254 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020 Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus off of the higher terrain but mostly sunny conditions in many lower elevations. Radar returns remain constrained to the higher mountains with a bit of virga spilling over into the lower elevations downwind. This will allow us to start breaking down the omega and nudge the ridge (currently the axis remains just west of our forecast area) slightly eastward during the short term. One thing to watch for Friday will be the poential for dry thunderstorms in the lower elevations (especially near the Utah/Colorado border). Moisture in the low levels has not quite caught up to what's trickling in at the mid levels. Temperatures will continue to climb well above normals for this time of year as the ridge axis moves directly over our CWA.
This morning the upper low is spinning over the corners of the 4-state region connecting Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Off to the north, a disturbance is tracking along the Canadian/US border, with associated energy/front moving southeast across the High Plains of western Nebraska. This disturbance/front helps to kick the upper low over the Southern Plains off to the Southeast and it is a welcome change from the upper pattern that has impacted the region for much of the week thus far. The showers to the northwest are associated with the front/disturbance approaching the area and showers to the southeast are wrapping around the upper low.