Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Stratus deck has developed behind a cold front that moved across the area overnight. /issued 342 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving south across the area and will clear southern counties around mid morning. Thermal profiles support a light rain/snow mix across this area this morning but precipitation will be very light and no accumulation or impact is expected as temperatures remain above freezing. This will make for a cold night with temperatures falling well below freezing areawide, with lows in the lower and middle 20s by daybreak Sunday.
Temp trends thus far are largely following the models that trended colder 24hrs ago, with sub-freezing temps already invading northeast MO and should make a steady push southeastward today, reaching the northwest extremities of STL Metro area by midday and making a push thru the far eastern edges of our forecast area around Salem, IL early this evening. Still a high likelihood of accumulating snow with slickening of roadways, even without the higher snow accum amounts.
HOWEVER EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPS WILL BE COLD TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 20S (AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
945 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS ZONES WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND OVERCAST COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATO-CU. MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE POP GRID (REMOVING ALL BUT A 20 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH 09/18Z) AND SOME TWEAKS TO THE WIND AND CLOUD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS FOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE. /ISSUED 530 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEING USHERED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MUCH DRIER AIR COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILDS SOUTH.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FROM BAKER CITY TO ONTARIO AND NORTH TO CAMBRIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
Will transition rain to snow fairly quickly late today/this evening west to east, based on the GFS/NAM forecast of lowering freezing level heights below traditional thresholds.
THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE WINDS AS A PACIFIC FRONT HAS ALREADY RAISED SURFACE PRESSURES AND DRIED OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND RESIDENCE TIME OF THE LOW CLOUD LAYER.
651 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY.
WITH SOME WINDS GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH CREATING SOME BLOWING SNOW FROM THE BUFFALO RIDGE TOWARD THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA. WILL HAVE COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG IN THE RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR I 29 WESTWARD BY LATER NIGHT. STARTING A BIT EARLIER AND ENDING A BIT LATER IN EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE AXIS.
414 AM MST SAT JAN 9 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ACROSS THE GLD CWA WITH A CLOSED CENTER ROTATING OVER WESTERN OK TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US UPSTREAM. AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK FORCING BENEATH LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS COMBINED WITH A SATURATED LAYER FROM 925-700 MB AND STEEP LOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. STRONG U/L DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY COMBINED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA DUE TO COMBINATION OF U/L SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE COOLER MORE STABLE SHELF WATERS. WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER. SOME SPOTS UP NORTH COULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING NEAR FREEZING AS WINDS WEAKEN.
530 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEING USHERED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MUCH DRIER AIR COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH MOST AREAS OVERCAST INTO THIS AFTN BEFORE ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MIX THE LOW CLOUDS OUT BY MID AFTN. WILL CAP POPS IN THE HIGH END SCATTERED CATEGORY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR SE GA TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF AS CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TNGT. COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
843 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE EXPD WITH THE LOW LVL JET IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN MRNG PASSAGE. THOUGH LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LT SUN/SUN NGT COULD RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
/ISSUED 530 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEING USHERED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MUCH DRIER AIR COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILDS SOUTH.
SFC TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN THE 60S AND 70S OFFSHORE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SPARK OFF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR INTENSITIES. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT NORTH FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT INCREASE 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
530 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE IN SW AR WILL MOVE NE TODAY. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF WEST TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA. WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH A BIT OF A BREAK IN PRECIP IN AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVES IN LATER TODAY. PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
1000 AM MST THU APR 23 2015 A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FORMING NORTH OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM HIGHWAY 83 TO POINTS EAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AR WILL FOCUS SOME OF THE CONVECTION.
A RESPECTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE GUSTY ONCE MIXING OCCURS TODAY. AS THE HIGH CENTER APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENSUE.
SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX. WITH GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUE. WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
619 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY, PROVIDING CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT IS SETTING UP TONIGHT, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL MOISTEN FROM THE TOP-DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ONLY STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS MORE QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING INCOMING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLIES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACH. MOISTURE POOLING JUST UPSTREAM LOOKS TO SPREAD OVERTOP THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HOLD ON FOR QUITE A WHILE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS WRN GTLAKES. THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH CENTERED OVER ERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC CANADA WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD WITH 500 HEIGHT RISES OF 120 M OVER SRN WI. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS OF 3-5C YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR TODAY. BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. AND THERE WAS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
702 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/ COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
SOME DISTURBED WEATHER UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BUT THE MAIN BROKEN LAYER MAY JUST BE A CIRRUS LAYER AT TIMES.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACRS THE AREA AND THE LOWER CIGS/FOG APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BRIEF CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS ALOFT. AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RIDGE HAS HELPED KEEP THE FORECAST AREA QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A VORT MAX SLIDING OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
1150 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF CO. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS.
1018 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AB. WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO THE WEST. WARM FRONT WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE BLACK HILLS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK. WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. AS UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SECOND NIGHT OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE LOWER KEYS FROM BOCA CHICA THROUGH KEY WEST WITH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 0. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE AFORE MENTIONED MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS RIDING ALONG AN OLD REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE STRAITS.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES QUICKLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS LOOK TO FORM ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THEN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE ZONES AND THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST AS WELL. SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KHVR TO KBZN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST. BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR EVERYBODY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. NOT ONLY HAS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT DRIER AIR IN. IT HAS ALSO BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE. VFR FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP. THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DIPS SOUTHWARD REACHING NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER BY THIS EVENING.
616 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST FRIDAY.
959 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
642 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 ***640 AM AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM*** THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA UNDER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THEN SLOWLY SWITCH TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BUT STILL DROP BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 210 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH MO.
THESE STORMS MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRYAN TO LIVINGSTON LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS/ BUT THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AIDING THIS COMPLEX VEERS THIS MORNING. 850 MB FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THIS WILL ALLOW A CAP TO BUILD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /LOW TO MID 80S INLAND/.
AND THIS LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE REGION.
505 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING POKES NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN, AND THE ZONAL H3 JET PARKED OVER THE GULF COAST FOR MANY DAYS, IS DISPLACED NORTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CANADA WILL SLOWLY PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXITING IDAHO ZONES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WX. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN IDAHO ZONES BUT ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
649 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST. BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE DRY SHOULD BE A DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 42 72 56 / 0 0 30 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 37 70 54 / 0 0 10 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 37 70 55 / 0 0 20 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 33 66 44 / 0 0 10 60.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THUS WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE FOR GUIDANCE HIGHS. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WHERE SOME AFTERNOON SUN MAY OCCUR. BELIEVE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
635 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD NORTH OF I-80. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND LEFT A NORTH WIND IN ITS WAKE. OVERALL, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE INCHES CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC AND CHANGES THE WNW WINDS TO HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPLIT OFF FRIDAY AND SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A LARGER REGION OF WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
Cooler, more normal springtime conditions will be present across the entire region today as the area sits between weather disturbances. In fact several weather disturbances are expected to impact the area through the weekend as a larger area of low pressure moves inland and crosses the region. These types of weather systems can be challenging to forecast given their large size and ability to kick out waves of energy ahead of the main, parent low pressure system.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST VFR FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
635 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
1101 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST. WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY, PROVIDING CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT IS SETTING UP TONIGHT, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL MOISTEN FROM THE TOP-DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
1039 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER, FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY.