Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad upper ridge was positioned over the NCNTRL PAC during Sunday, with NWLY flow aloft occurring from the Gulf of AK SEWD across the PAC NW. This will aid in strengthening NLY winds across ridge tops and exposed coastal areas. In addition, marginal destabilization is forecast to occur over the higher terrain of Trinity County such that an isolated shower can't be ruled out during MON afternoon. This will be a result of offshore high pressure building towards California which will cause the pressure gradient to tighten.
230 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 As a Pacific low pressure trough over British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California moves east into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, west southwest flow aloft will increase across the area bringing pacific moisture and scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight and Monday.
107 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure still in place over Central Illinois today, and quiet and mild weather will prevail. Another quiet and pleasant day on tap, as high pressure slowly drifts east across the Midwest. Gradual air mass modification will take place this week as the upper level winds start to orient themselves more out of the southwest, and the upper trough over the Great Lakes tends to retreat a bit northward.
Upper low in North Dakota has been weakening and by tomorrow afternoon, it is expected to be drawn into a trough extending from the large eastern Canadian low now in northern Quebec. Until that happens, trough extending southward from the North Dakota upper low has been the locus of thunderstorms that have been in eastern South Dakota and now far western MN. There have been a couple breaks in the cloud cover in the form of narrow lobes spiraling around upper low, but in general there has not been enough instability.
Highs should be slightly warmer than today making into the mid 80s over most locations.
This has kept temperatures slightly cooler than anticipated with some areas in central Nebraska struggling into the mid to upper 70s. Where clouds have scattered out, temperatures are moving into the low 80s. The HRRR/RUC/NAMnest develop thunderstorms along the boundary this afternoon with the activity taking a dive southward into north central Kansas by evening, with a secondary chance overnight with activity from the High plains. The NAM moves activity out from the High Plains tracking eastward across the state and the GFS fires activity along the boundary and keeps it going over central and south central Nebraska all night long. Have taken a combo of these scenarios for the precipitation potential tonight, but my current thinking is that the NAMNest/HRRR/RUC are handling it better especially with the low cloud cover today.
Weak southerly flow in advance of the approaching low very late tonight and Monday will send a very weak warm front up through the area, with isentropic ascent and moisture just enough over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb to justify a low chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.
Temperatures across the area are trending around 5 degrees lower than this time yesterday, due to a cold front that passed over. The upper low will exit to the east of the Medford CWA Monday evening.
A short wave trough aloft sweeps through the region this afternoon and evening.
120 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 A cold front will stall across the southern counties of central NC today, and remain quasi-stationary through the middle of the week. Sfc cold front has progressed swd into the Sandhills and southern coastal plain of central NC, a little farther south than anticipated 24 hours ago.
232 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure moves in this evening.
A few showers and thunderstorms may try to develop across southwest OK late this afternoon, but the highest precip chances are expected late tonight thru early tomorrow morning.
657 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The area will remain situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through the week. The area will remain between an inland trough and offshore high pressure at the surface. High pressure will also build aloft. Deep moisture should persist through the period and in general the best rain chances should be across South Carolina closer to low pressure. Probably the main sensible weather highlight this period will be the high heat index values. Heights aloft will be on the rise through the second half of the week as stronger ridging develops across the Southeast.
210 PM MST Sun Aug 13 2017 While a more few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern Arizona, a distinct drying trend will end storm chances across the lower elevations. Some lingering moisture around the H7 layer may support a few early afternoon storms over the higher terrain of Gila County, though the increasingly strong westerly flow should steer any of these storms away from the CWA.
A trough extending from south central Nebraska into northeast New Mexico will be the focus area for discreet to clustered convective elements originating near the front range to spread east and southeast this evening. Another consideration for this evening will be the relatively low flash flood guidance generally west of the highway 83 corridor to the Colorado line.
A trough of low pressure moving across northern California tomorrow will result in brief cooling early in the work week.
This area was also located downstream of a mid-level trough axis over SE South Dakota and NW Iowa, and near the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. High pressure remained across the area. Temperatures dropped into the low and mid 50s shortly before midnight as the cirrus moved in. This cirrus kept temperatures warmer across the western CWA this morning. The ECMWF seems to be the highest guidance for temps. Later in the period, the upper level low over ND this morning will move east to the north of the area. Advection of moisture into the area today and tonight will lead to warmer lows than the past few nights. A developing warm front over Iowa and Illinois will be in place Monday, with continued moisture transport into the region.
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Minor adjustments to pops in the southern James River Valley this afternoon as the mid/upper level low slowly shifts into southeast ND later this afternoon. Followed the high resolution solutions with improvements in sky conditions through the afternoon. Upper low continues to track slowly east across eastern North Dakota. The low moves into Minnesota this evening ending the rain east. Weak H5 ridging moves in for a mainly clear sky tonight, but with high low level moisture in place fog will likely result, especially across the south. As the weak H5 ridge passes Monday southwest flow aloft becomes established, and with increasingly diffluent flow, upward motion results.
An upper high will slide westward over the Gulf Coast States and give more of a zonal flow pattern later in the week, but before that, chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger in the forecast. Highest precip chances will be overnight through the late morning as the trough slides by the area, and model soundings do have PWAT values between 2 and 2. Models are having a few differences still on location of the highest precip, but with high moisture content suggested by the PWAT values, heavy rain and potential flooding may be a concern, especially over areas that see training of stronger convection.
The upper level ridge remains in place over South Texas.
At the surface, weak low pressure is located near the Philip area, with high pressure across ND. A mainly dry day is expected today as a weak upper ridge briefly builds over the region. Ridge axis will cross the northern plains Monday, and temps will warm slightly. A series of waves associated with a Canadian low pressure system will begin approaching the area in southwest flow, the first of which is expected to spark another round of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening.
Thus, the high QPF seems to be a feedback problem of the erroneous strength of the baroclinic zone.
expect the weak cold front across western Nebraska to slowly sag towards and across the local area overnight. with high temperatures expected to only climb into the lower 80s this afternoon. with overnight temperatures once again expected to drop into the lower 60s overnight. An upper level ridge will move through the area on Monday. At the surface there is a warm front that lifts to the north across the forecast area during the day. There could be a few morning thunderstorms in the southeast before the ridge moves into the area, but the afternoon should be dry and temperatures will be near normal for this time of year.
Winds will increase on Monday as low pressure moves into the area. Our drying trend will continue as a deep trough of low pressure develops over the western CONUS.
A broader upper-level trough was noted in western Canada, with weak ridge between over MT/ID toward the UT-NV border. A small 850mb low was noted in southeast ND, associated with the upper low, with 12C+ dewpoints edging into western to central NE.
Mid and upper level ridging remains over our area, though with a slight erosion over Central Texas to northern portions of the Rio Grande as an upper level trough moves into the western states. Thermal ridging continues over our area along with elevated heat index values as mixing of dewpoints is not as efficient due flow off the Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon into evening.
A cold front will stall across central Georgia on Monday, with deep southwesterly flow continuing over the region.
643 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure moves in this evening.
248 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure will move in bringing mainly rain-free weather heading into the new week.
325 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure will move slowly east over the next couple of days providing fair weather.
Building high pressure under weak upper troughing will suppress precip and support seasonable temperature for the near term period.
Overnight surface analysis reveals broad high pressure and a cool-ish airmass across the western Great Lakes and Midwest region. with slightly cooler air aloft heading north through the U. Cutoff upper level low evident on water vapor imagery spinning its wheels over the Dakotas will head slowly east reaching northern Michigan Monday afternoon into Monday night.
The only impact to east central Florida will be some long period ocean swells propagating into the surf zone in the next 1-2 days, possibly bumping the Rip Current risk into the High category but at a minimum maintaining a Moderate risk.
1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes continues to extend surface ridging over the region this morning which helped keep the MCS over Nebraska from entering our area. This high will shift south today weakening this ridge and allowing a more southerly flow to develop over the region.
An upper level trough was located over the upper Midwest with west-northwesterly flow at mid to upper levels over the high plains.
PoPs were kept in the slight chance/chance category, with the highest values across the northern and western counties.
116 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Aviation Quiet weather conditions are forecast today due to high pressure situated over the Great Lakes region.
There is some disagreement amongst the models on timing/strength, but do think the cooler temperatures aloft will likely lead to a bit more coverage.
Cloud cover will remain minimal during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control aloft. /issued 403 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight will yield to a weak inverted 500 mb trough that will briefly develop over the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
The mid level ridge stays in place across the region through the period. The low level thermal profile is not expected to change today into Monday.
/issued 1013 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/ Radar indicating leading edge of precipitation will slide across the southwest Delta counties late this morning likely keeping temperatures cooler than forecast.
150 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure builds in today and shifts offshore on Monday. Weak low pressure passes to the south Monday night.
1044 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017 A cold front will move across the Inland Northwest this morning with light showers and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will will peak by the end of the week followed by cooler and breezy weather for the upcoming weekend. Cold front is continuing to move through the Idaho Panhandle bringing isolated rain showers and breezy winds. 18Z TAFS: Cold front currently passing over the Idaho Panhandle bringing gusty winds and rain to that area.
Hot weather will be the norm this week as high pressure tends to dominate our weather pattern.
At the surface, very moist airmass remains over the central and southern Plains with a cold front stretching across nw Nebraska. Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon over the high Plains of eastern CO and track southeast this evening. This will allow a cold front to push through Wed into Wed evening with this front likely having showers and storms tied to it. Pattern looks to remain active through most of these extended periods as broad upper trough remains from the Rockies into the mid/northern Mississippi Valley. The north/south ,moisture plume along highway 14 in the western part of the forecast area has kept KGBD, KRSL, and KHUT in the lower cu field all morning.
338 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure from the Ohio Valley will build across the region tonight.
Vertically-stacked low pressure remains centered over Southern Ontario this afternoon. Another area of low pressure and producing another round of sct/nmrs showers across mainly Northern Lower Michigan. A cutoff upper level low pressure system will continue to result in showery and somewhat cool weather across the region. There could be showers just about anytime during this period as upper level impulses circulate around the parent upper low. High temperatures will be in the lower and middle 60s with lows in the middle and upper 40s.
145 PM PDT Mon May 22 2017 Continued hot in the Inland Empire and the Lower Deserts through Tuesday with high pressure aloft. Cooler near the coast with night and morning low clouds and dense fog.
209 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a strong upper low over the northern plains with a ridge of high pressure just off the west coast. At the surface, a cold front extends through northern Nebraska from a low centered over southern Minnesota. Generally, temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
152 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will bring drier and cooler conditions for the beginning of the week. Upper level low pivots through the northern Great Lakes today, with westerly flow across the Ohio Valley. This high will bring dry conditions and temperatures a little below normal. High pressure will linger at the sfc tonight keeping the region dry. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 50s. Highs in Tuesday will warm into the lower to mid 70s, before cooling back to the lower to mid 50s.
Expect MVFR ceilings to develop between 23/12z and 23/15z across across northwest sections, associated with a cold frontal passage.
Temps will be cooler in many spots, and range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the region.
Upper level low circulation via water vapor over Lake of the Woods at 20z. Rain associated with this feature north and west of it and this rain will drop south as the upper low drops south tonight. Tuesday will see the upper level low/trough dropping further south with the cold pool aloft over southeastern ND and west central/central MN as warmer air aloft and upper level ridging begin to move into DVL region. Clearing will work southeast thru the area Tuesday night as high pressure moves in.
Guidance lows are a little cooler than the previous forecast, and that looks good. The low chance of showers on the plains still looks appropriate.
207 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure builds in this afternoon, then low pressure and unsettled conditions return as early as Tuesday afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. Weak low pressure will pass to our south and east on Tuesday with the best forcing remaining well to our east.
The cold front that has been providing forcing for the showers and thunderstorms over the past two days will begin to exit the region late in the day on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to clear the CWA by late tomorrow evening with northwest winds ushering drier air into the region.
Otherwise, the more organized area of precipitation will be associated with the upper low across South Dakota which is quite evident on Water Vapor imagery. There remains some threat of marginal severe weather with these storms with low freezing levels helping hail formation and inverted-V soundings suggesting some wind potential. Upper low will cross Iowa on Tuesday with any clearing that occurred overnight quickly becoming filed with cumulus as daytime heating increases. /Tuesday night through Monday/ Cold core upper low will continues to traverse the state Tuesday night.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s. Highs on Tuesday will generally be in the lower to middle 70s.
155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a strong trend from the lower left to upper right.
Return flow slys develop later tmrw pm/evening, allowing some better/deeper seeded moisture to move in, with evolving long wave Low pressure/trof poised to affect the FA. This system will drive a cold front into/across the area Tue night-Wed morn, resulting in scattered showers/chc thunderstorms preceding and with its passage.
The lowest POPs will be up across the Northern Plateau. Higher rainfall amounts expected across the higher POP areas, anywhere from 0. Tomorrow highs will be in the low to mid 70s due to increased cloud cover and precip, which is a few degrees below normal.
230 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Upper level low pressure was located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi valley region early this afternoon with a 100 kt upper level jet diving south on the back side of the low across the northern into the central Rockies.
350 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Cold front is continuing to make its way south through the region just about to exit the TX Panhandles as obs show winds shifting to northerly behind the front. Any left over showers or an isolated storm will linger through Tuesday morning as the main upper level trough axis continues to shift east bring the precipitation upstream of the axis further to the east throughout tomorrow morning. With the cold front passing and mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
This evening we have a cold front slicing through the CWA. Some short term models are indicating that we could have some elevated convection linger well behind the cold front this evening, so I was not in too much of a hurry in removing chances of precipitation. We will need to wait for the mid-upper level trough axis to pass through tonight for the rain chance to completely shut off, probably a little either side of midnight, depending on where in the CWA it is.
A low pressure system to the southwest is giving off some high cirrus clouds, so although sunshine will be filtered throughout the day, it won't affect forecast high temperatures. High pressure moving across Kentucky will bring a light steady northeasterly flow to the mid-state through this evening. A low pressure system over Louisiana is expected to track to the northeast overnight bringing rain shower chances to the plateau region late. Have included VCSH at BNA with no VIS or CIG reduction, but CSV may see MVFR VIS and CIGs after 12Z, depending on how far north the low pressure system tracks.
Late tonight, the upper level low will start working its way south into the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will sweep through the area. This is because the upper level low will be overhead, bringing in cold air aloft and lowering the freezing level to about 5000-6000 ft. It is also possible to see some small hail fall out of any storms that develop tomorrow afternoon due to the lowered freezing level.
430 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over Kentucky, though it was not effective enough to keep the high clouds at bay. Readings did hit the low 70s in the far south but only mid to upper 60s, so far, elsewhere. They all depict a deep and broad trough over the mid section of the nation amplifying and dipping southeast into the mid Mississippi Valley during the next 36 to 48 hours.
335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Broad upper trough centered over southern Canada continues to result in cyclonic northwest upper flow over the plains states with trey warm sector air suppressed well to our south at present. At this time it appears the best chance of thunderstorms and attendant severe weather/heavy rainfall threat will be early in the weekend, with front bringing cooler and drier airmass south for the end of the holiday.
Within this flow aloft, will be embedded impulses/500 mb 90+ kt jet max progressing within the base of the trough, that will move across the Four-State Region during the day tomorrow. In addition, a cold front will impinge on the region from northwest to southeast. As a result, we will not only have a mesoscale focus /frontogenetical forcing provided by the cold front/ but will also have increasing UL support coupled with an already moist atmosphere /PWATS being maintained aoa 1.
214 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will clear skies out tonight, allowing for a cool and clear Tuesday morning.
1210 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure responsible for the amazing weather yesterday was starting to slide east of the region. Today will be warmer, however, clouds will be on the increase as our next weather system (cold front and parent upper level short wave) begins to take shape. The Canadian front should slide through the region Tuesday evening/overnight as an upper level low pressure closes off across the cornbelt, amplifying the trough kicking the front southward.
Look for cooler conditions through most of the week as a onshore flow combines with the marine layer.
A high amplitude Pacific ridge will bring dry northerly flow and warm conditions for most areas across Northern Arizona. This afternoon through Tuesday the aforementioned ridge will keep conditions warm and dry with temperatures generally at or 5 to 10 degree above normal.
Freezing levels are also fairly low (right around 7kft), so hail production should be fairly efficient in any stronger updrafts. Low pressure then spins over the region on Tuesday with continued chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
325 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 The probability for the next 6 to 14 days appears to favor cooler and wetter than what is usually expected. With that said, troughing will dominate the lower 2/3 of central NOAM with high latitude storms dropping into the upper Great Lakes region. With the Rockies and the High Plains being on the Western side of the trough cold air and Pacific mositure will easily drop southward and help verify the cool forecast. NAM guidance continues to trend upward behind this front which doesn't seem to make sense though upper heights will be increasing as ridging temporarily replaces the trough over the central states. Did go for the cooler side of guidance for Tuesday which will be at or slightly below normal.