Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The feature now roughly bisects the CWA from northeast to southwest, but will likely make little further progress south because the driving upper level trough has departed to the northeast. Regardless of the decent progress the front has made into the region the main air mass change is still confined north and northwest of our region as most locations in the Arklamiss Delta (in the wake of the boundary) are still seeing dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
313 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will push through the region late this afternoon, followed by a cooler airmass with much lower humidity.
Morning to early afternoon rain has pushed out of AR, as the drier and cooler air behind the cold front has gradually filtered into AR. The upper low pressure trough deepened enough to allow the cold front to push all the way through AR and finally end the rain.
346 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front approaches this evening and moves across the region late tonight. High pressure then dominates the upcoming week.
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through the early portion of the week. With the lower coverage in thunderstorms early in the week combined with a later start time, temperatures will be allowed to climb into the lower to mid 90s across many locations.
1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure centered over the central Plains will build east across the Mid Mississippi Valley today and into the Ohio Valley by early Monday morning. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80 today combined with this low humidity will feel more like September 21 than August 21.
244 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Upper ridge axis will cross the local area tonight resulting in dry conditions. Clouds will dissipate after sunset with loss of surface heating but with winds forecast to stay breezy from the south through the night temperatures will struggle to fall below the lower to middle 60s. Upper ridge will move east on Monday with southwesterly flow by the afternoon.
Water vapor loop depicted a upper trough from a Hudson Bay low south to the Missouri River valley. A broad upper ridge dominated the western CONUS with its center over northern California. Short range models are in good agreement with the western CONUS ridge progressing east across the Rockies and Great Plains through Monday as a fairly deep upper low tracks east across southern British Columbia and Alberta. It will be quite warm with highs into the low-mid 90s east of I-25, with 70s and 80s to the west.
Quiet conditions will ensue early in the week as this high builds across the area. Upper heights are already building on Monday/Monday night as upper trough pivots to the east/northeast.
526 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 High pressure will provide cooler and much less humid conditions through the first half of the week. A mid-level trough axis will push through tonight as a surface cold front moves well east. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday with high pressure in control.
Then a dry cold front that will arrive by this evening with windy conditions and elevated fire danger.
304 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 A cold front will cross the North Country today bringing showers, heavy at times. On Monday, high pressure returns bringing cooler temperatures and drier weather.
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A strong cold front will approach tonight and cross the region Monday morning.
209 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 A cold front will cross the North Country today bringing showers, heavy at times. On Monday, high pressure returns bringing cooler temperatures and drier weather.
142 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 High pressure will gain control tonight resulting in drier, and more comfortable conditions through the first half of the week. Only a few showers lingering this afternoon, primarily along the higher terrain of the southeast. Lower dewpoints are lagging behind the cold front a little, but some western observations are already dipping below the 60 degree mark. The upper-level trough axis will push through tonight. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday as high pressure regains control of the area.
1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Low pressure develops across Srn Alberta today and tonight. South winds increase to 10 to 15 mph this morning and a thermal ridge will build east into Wrn Nebraska.
314 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Next surge of cooler air will arrive tonight as a cold front crosses the area.
The initial upper-level pattern has a ridge riding over eastern Montana tonight. This will be pushed along by a closed low trough swinging across the Canadian Rockies. Today the hot desert air moved towards the north to cause the thermal boundary to move north as a warm front. Monday night the spinning upper low shifts into Saskatchewan, just above the International Border, sending a cold front across the local area.
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 High pressure will gain control tonight resulting in drier, and more comfortable conditions through the first half of the week. Only a few showers lingering this afternoon, primarily along the higher terrain of the southeast. Lower dewpoints are lagging behind the cold front a little, but some western observations are already dipping below the 60 degree mark. The upper-level trough axis will push through tonight. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday as high pressure regains control of the area.
Upper trough axis is expected to shift east of the area overnight. 20 No major changes are planned for the extended as long range models continue to show an upper level ridge settling over the southeast and dominating through the period. Looks like at least slightly above normal high temperatures will prevail under high pressure influence. At the surface a ridge of high pressure will nose into the state bringing slightly drier air into the CWA. however overnight lows will be a little cooler than normal due to the slightly drier air.
Drier and cooler airmass settles in through the early part of the week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week. Getting some enhancement to the line of showers along the cold front as it accelerates through the eastern portion of the CWA into the mountains. No major changes to the dewpoints and temperatures in the airmass following the cold front. Drier and cooler air will make a relatively short stay through the near term and into the beginning of the short term. Guidance show good agreement with high pressure building from the west Monday night.
The main low to midlevel cold front progressively pushed across the cwa between 06-07z this morning. As for the sensible weather or precipitation forecast, not much of change is anticipated because large wavelength to upper level trough.
541 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 A cold front will continue to move east across the area into this evening.
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A surface cold front is currently aligned from central New York down along the central and southern Appalachians. Broad high pressure centered across the southern Plains is moving in, along with a much more pleasant air mass, with dew points in the 50s. Aloft, a trough axis is swinging through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Skies will become mostly clear tonight, as high pressure builds in at the surface, while heights recover aloft. The lower dew points in place will set up another cool night as skies remain mostly clear. High pressure will push east through the midweek period, with return flow bringing slightly milder air into the region.
Another day of below average temperatures will follow on Monday with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s. Through midweek will see some fairly rich and deep moisture drawn northward around the western end of an upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states while a trough that will develop across the western CONUS will provide a series of upper level short wave troughs to work on that moisture.
245 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Upper ridge across the wrn CONUS continues to build across the nrn plains today. Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved into the MS valley. Thermal ridge will cross the region Monday ahead of the next trough crossing the nrn Rockies.
At this writing, the surface cold front has not quite made its passage across the entire FA.
Otherwise, convection should diminish by late evening with skies becoming mostly clear overnight and temps falling into the low to mid 70s. This drier air and ridge aloft will limit shower and thunderstorm development into the afternoon.
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will push through the region late this afternoon, followed by a cooler airmass with much lower humidity.
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will move through from the northwest late tonight.
608 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A reinforcing cold front will push southeast across the area tonight.
With a continued rather dry airmass entrenched, temps should climb easily into the 80s, with some low 90s possible into eastern North Dakota closer to the thermal ridge axis. The H5 ridge axis looks to pass across the Red River Valley early Monday evening with southwest flow increasing aloft during the evening and overnight.
134 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Drier and cooler weather will move into the region today in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will then settle across the Ohio Valley by Monday.
This will set up a southerly flow across western Kansas which will begin to draw slightly warmer air northward into the area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) tonight.
The latest surface analysis has the thermal trough east of the Cascades with weak onshore flow on the westside.
627 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 A cold front will continue to move east across the area into this evening.
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure will move east into the Maritimes this afternoon. A strong cold front will approach tonight and cross the region Monday morning.
(Issued 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016) The 14z surface analysis indicated that the cold front was approaching the forecast area and was situated across northeast Mississippi, extending northeast into southern middle Tennessee. Have also slightly tweaked precip chances this afternoon based upon the expected slightly slowing of the cold front into the forecast area. Still expect the cold front to make it through the forecast area by around 21z this afternoon. TT For 18Z TAFs: Cold front moving through the TAF sites at this time and expect northwest winds at around 6 knots and MVFR ceilings until between 22z-23z.
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Areas of SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue to move across the region ahead of a cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 64 90 / 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 84 62 88 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 85 61 88 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 82 56 85 / 10 10 0 0.
1204 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cool start across the area under influence of high pressure. Models have a strong consensus to development of pressure trough downstream of the Buffalo ridge, suggesting winds should see a bit of ridge enhancement by late night along with slowly rising temps.
/Issued 650 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/ An upper-level trough swinging through the OH/TN Valley region and the associated surface front moving in from the northwest should lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms once again across the forecast area. As the upper-level trough becomes displaced from the front, it will lose forward speed and stall across the CWA on Monday.
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will push through the region late this afternoon, followed by a cooler airmass with much lower humidity.
307 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A quiet conditions are expected for central Nebraska through Monday as high pressure continues to influence the region. Areas east of this line will drop into the low 60s. Highs Monday rise into the low 90s south of Antioch to O'Neill line.
248 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front continues to march across the eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon. stretching from the highlands of SW Virginia back into southern Middle Tennessee. A cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region in wake of the front. Cooler air will also filter in late tonight. along with the clearing sky (which will allow for good radiation cooling) will result in low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 50s to lower 60s! These temperatures will be between 10-15 cooler than what the region has seen in several weeks. A cool northeast flow tomorrow will help to keep high temperatures in check in the low to mid 80s in most locations.
A dry cold front will move into the northern Rockies overnight, and stall out over the area Monday.
1232 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure continues to slide east with winds gradually returning from the southwest this morning. High pressure is settling over the region this morning with clear skies and light winds. The aforementioned high will move east of the area today with south to southwest winds and warmer temperatures moving in. The heat will build into Monday as southerly winds increase and broad upper level ridging builds over the Dakotas.
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 A cold front will continue to move east across the area into this evening.
241 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Pleasant late summer weather continues tonight and Monday as high pressure slides across the area. Weak return southerly flow on the back side of this feature will keep tonight's temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than last night, while highs on Monday rise into the lower to middle 80s.
201 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The cold front has made it through the mid state with most of the precipitation having cleared out and clouds beginning to scatter farther upstream. Finally, cooler, drier air will advect into Middle Tennessee over the next several hours as we transition to a drier period overall. Once the upper trough pushes through later this afternoon, high pressure will build in from the south and will remain the dominant upper-level feature across the southeast for at least the next 7 days.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continued east of a weak lower to mid level trough along the I-35 corridor with more isolated coverage further west. The Subtropical Ridge begins to build into Texas from the east forcing the weak trough to shift west to the Rio Grande overnight. A developing lower level jet and the trough is expected to generate showers and thunderstorms overnight with the greatest coverage across the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau. PWS remaining around 2 inches will allow for the possibility of locally heavy rains closer to the trough where inflow will be strongest and moisture will be deepest. The Subtropical Ridge builds further into South Central Texas on Monday into Monday night forcing the weak trough away from our area.
a western ridge continued to expand eastward into the western Plains. Meanwhile an upper level low/trough was over southern British Columbia. Tonight and Monday the upper level ridge remains and builds over the Northern Plains as the British Columbia low moves east across the southern Canadian Rockies. This will allow quick warming with mixing of the low levels to well above 10,000 feet. Looking at high temperatures in the low to mid 90s over western and most of central ND with afternoon relative humidities as low as 15 to 20 percent.
Clouds will also decrease during this period, with mostly clear skies expected tonight and Monday as high pressure builds into the area. Temps will be below normal tonight, but will recover to around normal tomorrow as southerly winds develop within the western portion of the high.
635 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will move offshore by Monday morning bringing cooler and noticeably drier air into the Carolinas. This air mass will prevail in the upcoming week as high pressure extends along the East Coast. As for the overnight hours there is some decent agreement on some convection maintaining itself along a cold front passing through the area. This is the long advertised front that will slowly usher in a cooler and significantly drier airmass. The potent mid level trough readily apparent in the latest water vapor imagery will swing across early Monday with a westerly flow ensuing at the mid levels. The flow will buckle some through the period with the main feature being a ridge across the midwest. This will drive cool and dry high pressure into the area at the surface.
657 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A surface cold front passed through metro Detroit early this evening and will continue on a southward track during the rest of the evening. Winds veered to the northwest with the passage of the cold front. Quiet conditions will ensue early in the week as this high builds across the area. Upper heights are already building on Monday/Monday night as upper trough pivots to the east/northeast.
Cold front has made it south of I-40 with northerly wind shifts noted at BNA and CKV.
320 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The well advertised cold front continues to push S/SE through the area this afternoon. The front is forecast to stall out to our south tonight as the low pressure system/main driving force behind the front lifts further north into Canada. Expect temps to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s across the southern half of the area and in the lower 60s across the northern half for tonight/Monday morning.
as a weak cold front has now become stationary over portions of E TX and N LA. /issued 1111 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/ A cold front is still located from near Toledo Bend Dam to near Monroe, LA.
The cold front has made it to far southeast AR at this time with the northwest to north flow taking over the state. activity developing near a cold front that was progressing SE through the state. Much cooler and less humid conditions will be seen tonight as the drier air continues to filter into the state. The cold front will attempt to lift back north as a warm front on Mon into Mon night.
134 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 A pressure trough will remain in the forecast area through much of the week. The pressure trough and heating should help support showers and thunderstorms. The high- resolution models displayed scattered coverage. The high low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling should help support stratus late tonight. Upper level trough over the northern Gulf of mexico east across Florida will slowly retrograde during the period.
325 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail through at least Tuesday night for the PAH forecast area, resulting in rainfree conditions for the majority of the region. This, combined with subtle low level convergence and increasingly southerly flow, should result in the highest PoPs for the easternmost counties (chance category).
345 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016 Upper level high pressure is centered over west Texas. with an upper level trough of low pressure stretching from Washington state south into California. Colorado lies under the northern edge of the ridge.
349 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Low amplitude upper ridge continues to build over the Great Lakes with the ridge axis set to cross the region later this evening. In addition, a deeper mid/upper level low tracking through central Canada will fold the amplified thermal ridge along Western Plains over into the region by Tuesday night.
441 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will cross the area tonight into Tuesday, then move east Tuesday night.
Sprawling 500 mb ridge locked in place, and with no advection of any significant moisture (with a possible exception of some thin non-descript cirrus) the current conditions of temperature, humidity, and wind will continue for another 36 to 48 hours.
The broad area of low pressure over the deep south and extending down into the NE Gulf continues as high pressure remains ridging across south FL from the Atlantic. The low weakens and retreats to the west tonight and Tuesday as the ridge across south FL strengthens and starts to lift a bit north. Aloft, the low over the state will start to weaken and shift to the west as well through Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will range from the lower 80s north to near 90 south.
219 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016 Upper air analysis shows an upper low across the Pac NW with active SW flow extending into the nrn Plains. Upper low will drift eastward into the nrn Rockies Tuesday with sw flow aloft deepening over the nrn Plains.
Temps will be mild overnight with lows in the lower 70s. A ridge of high pressure will slowly establish itself just to the east of the region. The ridge flattens heading into the weekend and shifts east as a weak upper-trough swings into the Ohio Valley. This will also result in some slightly cooler temperatures. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 74 90 / 30 50 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 73 92 / 40 40 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 74 91 73 91 / 40 40 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 89 69 89 / 40 30 10 30.
343 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will bring clear weather to the area tonight with temperatures falling into the 50s.
126 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will continue to extend into the region today. A trough of low pressure will track east to west across the area tonight and Tuesday. Inverted trough along the western slopes of the Appalachians will move west across the region tonight and tomorrow. a weakening mid level disturbance will be lifting northeast from Illinois into the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday.
223 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 The effects of a trough moving into the western U. are already being felt on a ridge of high pressure as more storms are forming this afternoon.
Weak TUTT low centered across NE Texas will continue to slowly drift away from the area, but this together with ridging to the SW of the feature will produce some modest upr level diffluence across the Panhandles today. This should allow warmer temps in the OK panhandle, while near persistence temps likely work for the remaining areas. Most importantly, the H7-H5 theta-e ridge axis (monsoonal plume) remains across the region today.
A cause is an area of mainly upper level low pressure from the west coast of Florida to the Bahamas. The GFS, its ensembles and the ECMWF do hint that the main upper low or moisture maxima will move to the NW across the western portion of the region during the early weekend.
1142 AM PDT MON AUG 8 2016 A weak upper trough along the West Coast will strengthen, bringing a cooling trend to the region through mid week with widespread night through morning low clouds in coastal and valley areas. High pressure will build into the region late in the week and into the weekend, bringing a warming trend with a reduction in low clouds across inland areas. Looks like our forecast was several degrees cooler than yesterday and cooler than model numbers for San Luis to Paso Robles, so pushed them back up today.
Mesoscale models differ in solutions and with the ridge aloft still over the area, will hold off on any mention of convection in TAFs.
151 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 A pressure trough will remain in the forecast area through much of the week. The pressure trough and heating should help support showers and thunderstorms. The high- resolution models displayed scattered coverage. The high low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling should help support stratus late tonight. Upper level trough over the northern Gulf of mexico east across Florida will slowly retrograde during the period.
251 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions into tonight and Tuesday morning. A weak trough and building instability may combine to spark a stray shower or storm Tuesday afternoon east of Interstate 69.
High The quiet and stable influence of departing high pressure to our east will persist this period. So will see a bump in temps to the low/mid 80s.
Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail through at least Tuesday night for the PAH forecast area, resulting in rainfree conditions for the majority of the region. This, combined with subtle low level convergence and increasingly southerly flow, should result in the highest PoPs for the easternmost counties (chance category).
High pressure remains in control with layer RH values getting lower every day and PWAT near normal. Expect high temperatures on Tuesday similar to today, maybe a degree warmer.