Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect light to moderate snow to persist through early afternoon, becoming more focused only on the higher terrain, as this system and moisture shifts further to the south. As upper level low over the srn Great Basin sinks southward off the California coast today, upward motion will gradually end from e-w, with snowfall lingering longest over the ern San Juans/La Garitas, where several more inches of accumulation is likely through the day.
238 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Quiet weather through Wednesday with high pressure the dominant influence.
Temperatures are struggling to warm into the lower 40s across most of the Panhandles with the cloud cover that persisted most of the morning. With skies clearing, the temperatures may be able to rise into the lower to mid 40s across most of the area. RAP 500mb analysis shows a closed upper level low pressure system meandering towards the Pacific off the coast of southern Cali where it will remain stationary through tomorrow night. ERC percentiles are the highest in the northeast in the 50th-69th percentile, along with a few spotty areas int he 70th-89th percentile.
Wednesday we will see clearing skies develop through the day, as an area of high pressure works into the southeast U. Even so should be much cooler than today, with highs only topping out into the upper 30s to lower 40s for most. Wednesday night, a warm front will push northward as a southern stream weak wave pushes toward the Tennessee Valley.
Model guidance came in considerably cooler for tonight, so forecast lows have been dropped into the single digits and teens. Gusty southwest winds will mix down an axis of warmer 925-850mb temps beneath the upper ridge. NBM has trended a bit cooler for tomorrow, but is likely being dragged down by a stark bimodal distribution in the temperature guidance. Raw guidance is considerably cooler than MOS output, in excess of 10 degrees in some areas.
High pressure ridge axis will over the area will produce light winds and the onshore wind flow occurring now will back to a light NW drainage flow. Min temps will be chilly in the low to mid 40s most areas, except upper 30s in the normally colder locations north of Orlando. Milder temps on the barrier islands and eastern Martin county in the low to mid 50s. Max temps a little warmer reaching the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s along the Volusia coast.
On the backside of this low, we saw the combination of scattered snow showers and gusty winds in excess of 35-40 mph result in periods of drastically reduced visibility.
Continued Nice Weather For South Florida For The Rest Of The High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will continue to dominate South Florida's weather through Wednesday. The extended range of the forecast continues to be quiet as a ridge of high pressure remains in control across our area for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm through the week as a light onshore flow out of the northeast becomes established underneath the high pressure. The only potential weather maker in the extended range is a weak backdoor cold front that would approach the area from the northeast.
High pressure overhead this afternoon will move toward the west northwest Tonight, as a few weak cold fronts move southeast across region Tonight into Wednesday. A milder night is expected Tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 30s over the Suwannee valley to the lower to mid 40s elsewhere.
1159 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 (Today and tonight) The cold front has sagged south of our area early this morning. Today will be much cooler for our area, with cloudy skies and northeast winds. By later today an upper low will be off the southwest coast of California. This low will move south and be located to the west of Baja region by early Wednesday morning. Our area will be under southwest flow aloft, out ahead of this low.
216 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, keeping plenty of sunshine in place along with warming temperatures through the end of the week. High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days.
There is little in the way of surface forcing or moisture, but there is a decent vorticity max that will swing through the upper trough over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana, and this will bring a chance for light snow over the northern counties. With the wave completely east of the area by around 6z, will see the highest PoPs in the northern counties from 0 to 6z. From 6 to 12z, could see some lake effect flurries as northerly flow moves in ahead of building high pressure from the northwest. High pressure will build in behind the clipper late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring dry weather and a shot of slightly cooler air in the north, with highs in the upper 20s there but the mid to upper 30s south.
Winds turn to the southwest tomorrow morning, becoming rather gusty by mid day as strong low pressure dives south across southern Manitoba and southwestern Ontario.
The main features observed in the pattern included a large closed low off of the southern California coast with weak ridging out ahead across the Four Corners region. As this low continued to push southward, split flow prevailed across the central Rockies. Dry weather continues with the flow aloft becoming a bit more zonal and the ridging ahead of the upper low broadening across the southern CONUS. Warmer air filters into the area, with highs forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Wednesday night, the low off of the California coast begins its journey onshore, weakening in the process. A weak cold front associated with the Canadian system traverses the area in the evening.
This will be in response to moisture currently over northern Mexico pushing northeastward overnight as an upper low develops over southern California and moves south to southeastward. The trick to precip moving into the FA will be where the axis of the overhead upper ridge will be. Models differ in location of the ridge axis as well as the strength of the ridge. The NAM is most bullish (as it tends to be) with precip chances by having a weaker ridge with a further east axis than the GFS. Precip will be liquid rain as temps are expected to remain mostly above freezing. Any area that is at or below freezing and starts to see precip should warm to above freezing as mixing occurs. This is well in advance of an upper low approaching Baja California Wednesday evening.
As for right now, the entire FA has nearly cleared of the low clouds and flurries. There is some indication in deterministic/plumes of a spoke/secondary trough spinning through Thu morning or afternoon, but impacts would look to be rather minimal as that happens.
A pretty deep trough expected to move out of the western US shifting our upper flow southwest. This upper trough/jet will spin up a decent SFC/LL low which will pass just north of us Mon night.
Much of this winter has been characterized by cold frontal passages 1-3 times a week, leading to below-normal temperatures on average since the start of December.
Weak high pressure will pass across the area tonight with clearing expected. A strong upper level trough will move towards the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
1253 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure builds southwest of the region today. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday.
The closed low pressure responsible for snow across the southern mountains and valleys is now moving off the coast of California and Baja. As the low retrogrades southwestward the associated lift has been weakening and convergence is not as pronounced. Also, temperatures have warmed near to and above freezing and this has been limiting accumulation on the roads. Overall lows tonight will be cooler than this morning mainly due to less clouds. Highs tomorrow could be 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
A cold front has moved across most of the Midsouth approaching Tupelo and Clarksdale, MS. A weak ridge will build in tomorrow, becoming centered over the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow evening. As the ridge axis shifts farther East tomorrow night, rain will return to the Midsouth.
An axis of high pressure overhead with clear skies and relatively light winds this evening will help temperatures drop a lot more efficiently than recently. The deep mixing should allow many areas to rise well into the 30s by afternoon, with mid 40s possible near the Buffalo Ridge. One cold front will pass through Wednesday evening, shifting winds more westerly and remaining elevated.
313 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Snow development across southern Colorado is now focused primarily over the higher terrain, specifically the southwest mountains where some light to at times moderate snow is still occurring.
524 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 An upper level trough passes through the area tonight into Wednesday morning turning winds southwest.
335 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Light snow is possible this evening and tonight as a cold front moves across the region, mainly along and north of the I-74 corridor.
317 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Trend of warmer temperatures and dry weather continues with high pressure moving east.
But then a cold front sags through the region on Wednesday. This will end the high wind threat, and cause temperatures to start turning lower.
An upper level trough was digging south-southwest off the southern CA coast. Wednesday, The southern branch of the upper level jet will increase across the central Rockies, causing a lee trough to deepen across the southern high plains. Another H5 trough will dig southeast across central Canada into the upper Midwest.
431 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 The closed low pressure responsible for snow across the southern mountains and valleys is now moving off the coast of California and Baja. As the low retrogrades southwestward the associated lift has been weakening and convergence is not as pronounced. Also, temperatures have warmed near to and above freezing and this has been limiting accumulation on the roads. Overall lows tonight will be cooler than this morning mainly due to less clouds. Highs tomorrow could be 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Low temperatures should bottom out in the lower to mid 20s.
5 u component anomaly at 06z, have extended the high wind warning (HWW) that expires at 03z through midnight (08z) for our zone 69. Given the dry air mass and warmer air moving into Norcal overnite as 5H heights recover in the wake of the low, winds will decouple in the Valley setting up strong radiational cooling under the low level inversion. There is enough model agreement that a seasonably cold upper trof will move into Norcal on Fri giving the CWA a chance of precip. This area will be in the favorable location of large scale ascent and instability given the forecast track of the strong vort max embedded in the trof.
A weak high pressure ridge axis to the north will settle to across the central FL peninsula overnight. Overnight temps will be chilly, slightly below climo, falling into the 40s most areas; perhaps U30s for normally cooler spots of inland Volusia/north Lake counties; warmest (L-M50s) for the immediate St. Max temps a little warmer reaching the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s along the Volusia coast. High pressure ridge axis north will settle south overnight to across the central FL peninsula. A weak cool front will push offshore Georgia and north Florida Wed with high pressure then rebuilding across central and south Florida Thu and Fri.
217 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 The closed low pressure responsible for snow across the southern mountains and valleys is now moving off the coast of California and Baja. As the low retrogrades southwestward the associated lift has been weakening and convergence is not as pronounced. Also, temperatures have warmed near to and above freezing and this has been limiting accumulation on the roads. Overall lows tonight will be cooler than this morning mainly due to less clouds. Highs tomorrow could be 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Observations were running a couple of degrees warmer than forecast given the increased cloud cover. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 49 37 51 41 / 20 0 50 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 44 33 47 37 / 10 0 30 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 33 45 32 47 35 / 10 0 30 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 39 27 44 33 / 10 0 20 40 10.
A pretty deep trough expected to move out of the western US shifting our upper flow southwest. This upper trough/jet will spin up a decent SFC/LL low which will pass just north of us Mon night. High pressure will keep fair wx in place through Wednesday with winds backing to the SW late in the day.
812 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure is centered over north Florida this evening. A cold front will be stalling across north Florida tomorrow as high pressure remains across south FL. Ridging remains in place across the area then through the week. The boundary then settles south and east over the weekend as high pressure builds from the Atlantic, and this ridging will remain across the area through the end of the period. Light winds and seas will be in place through the period as high pressure remain across the waters.
/issued 411 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ Clear skies has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 70s across the region as southeast to south flow continues.
Lighter winds are expected overnight with ridging at the sfc, then as this ridge slides southeast winds will turn from the NW to the SW. Tomorrow brings a nice warm up, by around 10 to 15 degrees across the area, along with some breezy winds again as a sfc trof to the north sags south and compresses the pressure gradient.
These areas will struggle to reach the low 20s after starting below zero. Models continue to back off of the next trough dropping down the Pacific Northwest coast before sweeping inland.
715 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 A cold front will move through the region tonight with limited moisture.
546 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Light snow is possible this evening and tonight as a cold front moves across the region, mainly along and north of the I-74 corridor.
The system will continue to pull away from the area overnight allowing for cooler and drier air to filter in. Winds briefly pickup up before midnight but then begin to weaken with high pressure moving to the south tonight. Winds turn to the southwest tomorrow morning, becoming rather gusty by mid day as strong low pressure dives south across southern Manitoba and southwestern Ontario.
402 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Current surface trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming.
/issued 317 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ Trend of warmer temperatures and dry weather continues with high pressure moving east.
839 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 A cold front will move through the region tonight with limited moisture.
/Issued 222 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ Cold front has settled well south in TX, with a chilly and dry night expected as surface riding builds across the forecast area.
411 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Clear skies has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 70s across the region as southeast to south flow continues.
As warm front approaches and southwest winds increase cloud cover will also increase, so we should start to see the expected increasing trend later this evening/overnight. Will continue to monitor for drifting snow impacts overnight as winds increase, but strongest winds will tend to be during the day Wed when temps will also be above freezing (nice and mild compared to average for late Jan). As for right now, the entire FA has nearly cleared of the low clouds and flurries. There is some indication in deterministic/plumes of a spoke/secondary trough spinning through Thu morning or afternoon, but impacts would look to be rather minimal as that happens.
Decent northwest wind continues this afternoon from east-central WY into western Nebraska behind the trough. Clear skies will continue overnight and allow temperatures to drop well below freezing across the forecast area. The surface pressure gradient however will strengthen as high pressure builds over SW WY and decreases over the northern plains.
543 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will deepen over eastern CO and eastern NM on Wednesday. Temperatures are struggling to warm into the lower 40s across most of the Panhandles with the cloud cover that persisted most of the morning. With skies clearing, the temperatures may be able to rise into the lower to mid 40s across most of the area. RAP 500mb analysis shows a closed upper level low pressure system meandering towards the Pacific off the coast of southern Cali where it will remain stationary through tomorrow night. ERC percentiles are the highest in the northeast in the 50th-69th percentile, along with a few spotty areas int he 70th-89th percentile.
On Wednesday, a warm front will approach from the southwest, with clouds increasing again and precip becoming possible over the western and central portions of Arkansas by the end of the period.
Light snow accumulations were observed today as an upper level trough pushed eastward, leaving a tenth of an inch of snow at our office. Locations right on the shores of Lake Superior could stay slightly warmer, dropping to just a couple degrees above zero.
The higher QPF should remain west where the best isentropic lift will be noted. West of the front, temps should fall into the lower to mid 50s.
534 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Accumulating snow showers are likely through Wednesday, with highest amounts in the eastern ridges and I-80 corridor.
221 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Current surface trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming.
346 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Winds increasing along foothill locations as energy moves into BC suppressing a positively tilted ridge over the region. Wednesday morning cold front moves across the area pulling the best pressure gradient off the foothills but also allowing for momentum to mix down over the plains so expect a breezy day with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Gap flow winds will decrease during the afternoon and less mixing across the area will bring a cooler night.
By Wednesday afternoon we could see gusts to around 40 mph out of the northwest with the passage of a cold front. Another cold front drops south Wednesday Night which will usher in the colder temperatures the remainder of the week as an upper trough moves into the area.
Confidence is low, but there could be a few spots that experience some light freezing drizzle or very light snow after midnight tonight from Olney to the northern Flathead Valley to Glacier Park.
Rain and snow showers will diminish by this evening across northern Arizona with some slick roads lingering in the high country.
TAF sites south of the Highway 82 corridor remain VFR, but as rain moves south into these areas, they will drop to MVFR through the evening and overnight.
841 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 A cold front continues to move through North Mississippi this evening. A cold front has moved across most of the Midsouth approaching Tupelo and Clarksdale, MS. A weak ridge will build in tomorrow, becoming centered over the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow evening. As the ridge axis shifts farther East tomorrow night, rain will return to the Midsouth.
930 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure over the Southeast states will push southward tonight, as a dry cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic states and Carolinas.
A weak cold front continues to stall above the I-20 corridor so places north of I-20 will see rain showers throughout the night. With the increased rain chances, temperatures tonight will be on the warmer side especially for areas below I-20.
Dry weather tonight with high clouds accompanying an upper ridge axis folding in from the north.
Other sites have also been exceeding 40kts at times, and the potential remains for some spots to record some gusts up around 50kts, so the High Wind Warning was maintained for those counties as of now. But then a cold front sags through the region on Wednesday. This will end the high wind threat, and cause temperatures to start turning lower.
At the surface, a trof axis will linger across the High Plains. Breezy to gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the sfc trof axis are expected for much of the day. Burning is discouraged given the higher fire risk. The sfc trof will fragment and push eastward across the state.
252 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 The cold front is now to the south of the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to fall this morning with values dropping to the low to mid 30s by daybreak. Some locations could top out in the low 50s if the clouds are slower to return this afternoon than forecast. The low-level high will shift to the east later this evening into tonight with southwesterly flow returning in the low levels. In the mid and upper levels, a northwesterly flow trough will move into the Tennessee Valley later tonight.
226 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A dry cold front will move offshore early this morning. The high pressure will be overhead tonight and early Wednesday, before shifting offshore late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
1014 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights mean-layer ridging across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, with a well defined upper-level ridge axis building north through Texas. High pressure is in about the same location as last night, draped across North Florida, although about 3 mb stronger. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Straits of Florida west of the Seven Mile Bridge due to northeast to east winds near 20 knots and seas as high as 7 feet. From synopsis, a strong high pressure center over far northern Florida will elongate into an east-west ridge tonight.
335 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A dry cold front will move offshore early this morning. The high pressure will be overhead tonight and early Wednesday, before shifting offshore late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Reimer Winds increasing along foothill locations as energy moves into BC suppressing a positively tilted ridge over the region. Wednesday morning cold front moves across the area pulling the best pressure gradient off the foothills but also allowing for momentum to mix down over the plains so expect a breezy day with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Gap flow winds will decrease during the afternoon and less mixing across the area will bring a cooler night.
Quiet weather through Wednesday with high pressure the dominant influence.
As a result mostly clear skies and cooler conditions are occurring across the area. Temperatures are in the 20s to the lower 30s early this morning. Winds will become south to southwesterly behind the high. The pressure gradient will tighten between the departing high to the southeast and the low pressure to the northwest. Warmer temperatures will also occur today as highs generally warm into the low to middle 50s.
331 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A weak cold front continues to push through the area at this hour without much fanfare. Not getting temps to reach freezing anymore so do not feel freezing rain will be a problem but there could be alight mix or rain and snow at the onset for the higher elevations.
1049 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 An upper level trough passes through the area tonight into Wednesday morning turning winds southwest.
247 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Under the influence of low-level ridging, a clear sky continues across the region, a nice change from the previous several days. By this evening the low-level ridging will have moved east out of the region, and a weak low will move through the lower Mississippi Valley. This low, combined with an area of weak low-level frontogenesis will generate rain across southern Missouri and much of Arkansas this evening. Continued WAA into the evening will keep overnight lows warmer than the previous nights, bottoming out in the upper-20s near the Missouri-Iowa border and in the 30s across areas to the south.
1038 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Snow development across southern Colorado is now focused primarily over the higher terrain, specifically the southwest mountains where some light to at times moderate snow is still occurring.
129 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Western NOAM troughing will support much cooler and continued semi-unsettled conds. Ahead of the trough, mild conds are expected with highs in the 40s and 50s, warmest over the southern half.