Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure over Lake Superior this morning will move slowly south through the Great Lakes region Today and Wednesday, then stall over Ohio for a few days. The low is expected to move back to the north over the weekend. Clouds and scattered showers associated with the low will continue to plague the area with daily highs in the 60s. As upper low drops south through the state so will the deep moisture.
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Early afternoon temperatures across the Midsouth range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s. Dew points are in the low to middle 40s. The exception will be in North Mississippi where the cooler air took longer to arrive. Expect morning lows around 7-10 degrees cooler in portions of North Mississippi. Most areas should drop into the low to middle 50s. A spoke of energy is expected to rotate around the cutoff low tomorrow into tomorrow night ushering in an associated cold front.
336 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 A cool down will begin on Wednesday with much cooler temperatures by the end of the week as a weather system moves toward NorCal. Last day of hot weather as ridge axis continues to shift east today. Main story for the rest of the work week will be cooling trend as upper level trough begins to move toward the coast.
An upper level trough currently over the Northern Great Lakes will sink southward today bringing breezy northwesterly winds to the eastern CWA. Under sunny skies, high temperatures should warm into the upper 60s in NE South Dakota, to the lower 80s in western SD. The upper level trough should be located over southeastern Lake Michigan later tonight with low stratus possible as far west as eastern SD. High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than previously expected. A back-door cold front will push across the region as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north.
Strong subsidence and drying on the east side of this high will keep skies clear overnight. Rising heights responding to warming aloft will equate to slightly warmer surface temperatures overnight. With the high slighting over eastern Colorado on Wednesday the light northwest flow aloft will transition to more of a southwesterly component which will begin to advect mid and high level moisture up into the state. By late in the day could see cirrus spreading over area and perhaps a few AC and/or CU clouds forming over the high terrain with strong diabatic heating. Temperatures tomorrow about the same as those today with lower 80s on the plains and 60s/70s in the high country. normal high temperature for the Denver metro area this time of year is in the lower 70s.
Generally cooler (especially mornings) and tranquil conditions are expected into the weekend. By Wednesday mid-morning, this will clear out clouds and lead to warmer temperatures by the afternoon. However, the drier air and resultant radiational cooling will set up a string of cooler mornings mid-to late-week with highs rebounding back into the mid to upper 80s.
Lower cu field noted over lower Acadiana where dewpoints have recovered into the low 70s and where radar is showing development of a few showers. Fair weather pattern expected through the week as drier air and cooler temperatures continue to settle over the region. Great Lakes mid/upper low progged similarly by models to settle south southeast into the Ohio valley during the latter part of the work- week, ejecting northeast through the weekend.
Across the valley and NW MN conditions less certain with model RHs fields suggesting more clouds overnight and dewpoints have held in the low to mid 40s. Quiet fall weather is expected late this week through the weekend as the cut-off low continues to slowly meander towards the Ohio Valley and ridging remains over the north central US.
Most of the rain will hold off but showers are possible from the NY/PA border toward 5 PM as an upper level low drops due south, and moisture around it increase in a increasing southerly flow. Main focus this period will be on rainfall potential with the slow moving closed upper low. In the big picture, model agreement is excellent this period, with a cutoff low in the upper levels meandering over the Ohio Valley, and a large ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic across eastern New England and southeastern Canada.
The upper ridge strengthens over the High Plains region through tonight and Wednesday with the high over the Gulf of Mexico extending northward into southern Canada by Wednesday evening. It appears a weak trough/cold front moves through the central high plains region overnight. This will bring slightly cooler high temperatures to the forecast area on Wednesday as the cold air advection veers through the day and becomes return flow around a high pressure area that will be pushing deeper into the central plains from the northern plains.
302 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Current water vapor imagery shows stacked upper low over the Great Lakes region beginning to push south towards the upper Ohio Valley. The upper low over the Great Lakes is progged to become a cutoff low as it moves south out over the upper Mississippi Valley while a more robust ridge builds in over the Plains.
1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Mostly sunny today with west winds this morning becoming northwest and gusty as a backdoor cold front moves into north central Nebraska this afternoon and moves across western Nebraska through the night. Continued mostly clear tonight as upper ridge pushes east on the backside of upper low to the east continues its trek to the southeast into southern Great Lakes. Warmer over night with lows in the mid 40s. Models trended a little slowly with the movement of the upper level closed low that meanders across the Great Lakes region and the Ohio river valley now through the weekend. Meanwhile a ridge across the western CONUS will shift east and flatten as the trough to the east holds strong. Also seeing a trough dig towards the Pacific NW by the weekend.
VFR conditions expected to prevail with light southwest and west wind ahead of cold front. Temperatures are expected to be warmer today and tomorrow compared to yesterday. A cold front that is expected to move across the region Wednesday will bring another round of cooler temperatures late this week. The weather pattern shown by the models for parts of this week is of an upper ridge over the Central U. with an upper low moving into the Ohio Valley. Models show the upper ridge breaking down late this week into the weekend with a longwave trough moving across the Western U. As the main upper trough continues to move across the western U.
But it does drag a weak surface cold front southward with it in our area.
At the surface, a high pressure is centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and low pressure is moving east across the Four Corners Region. A more significant disturbance ejects over the High Plains tomorrow afternoon. Cooler temps aloft and low level moisture should contribute to at least some MUCAPE, generally less than 750 J/KG. With the Tri-State Region well north of the cold front, severe weather should not be expected.
The warm front will either lift north through the area on Monday or reform farther north.
Cooler temperatures will continue into the day Monday however low to mid level flow will become southerly/southwesterly later on Monday, and will begin the warming trend for the region. The warm up will move in with the next trough from the west, and will bring in chances for precip later in the day on Monday.
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Area will remain in split flow with northwesterly upper level flow to our north and a weak upper level ridge across Colorado. This ridge will continue to weaken as it moves east across the central U. At the surface, area of cool high pressure centered over the nations's mid section will continue to shift southeast through the day. Moisture will be slow to return to the area behind the departing cold high pressure system.
Think that much of the CWA will stay in the low 40s overnight, but a few spots in the northeast could get down into the upper or even mid 30s. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today, with some north winds. The high pressure will continue through Monday night and with light winds and clear skies, lows will again drop into the 30s.
/issued 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016/ Cooler than normal temperatures to continue through most of the week. These showers were embedded in 700mb theta-e ridge, under the right entrance region of a 250mb jet core.
Chilly high pressure will build in from the west through Monday.
For today, strong southwest winds and cooler temperatures are forecast ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep trof extending from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes region. Gaps in the cloud cover early this morning should fill in with cu/stratocu for a time before 850mb thermal trof shifts farther e. A building upper ridge will bring 850mb temps up to around 9C by the end of the forecast period, so a warming trend to highs from the mid 60s to low 70s by late week is expected. A weakening low pres and trof will drop over Lake Superior tonight, and then push s on Mon.
High pressure will cross the region, but will be centered over the LMK CWA around midnight. By dawn the center of the high will be well off to our east, over West Virginia. RH and isentropic lift will steadily increase by Monday afternoon and especially Monday night as an upper trof approaches from the Midwest.
A low pressure system will slowly drift southward.
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure currently centered across the ARKLAMISS will move eastward through the period. Late week trough/short wave stronger but low-level easterly flow keeps instability limited.
A warm front will lift slowly north across the terminals overnight. The High Res/CAM models indicate scattered thunderstorms developing to our southwest across the Trans Pecos this afternoon and evening, and moving east into our area by this evening. Highs will be the mid 60s and 70s, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
Moisture advection from the gulf will north along the western edge of the high overnight. Cooler to the northeast but still 10 to 15 degrees warmer than early this morning with lows in the lower 40s. Long story short, KMCW SFC dewpoint depressions approach 30 degrees as fcst soundings appear to be very dry in the low levels.
At 2 PM MDT the upper low was centered just north of McCall, ID, with cool, moist air mass throughout our CWA. Locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms were rotating around the low. Tonight the upper low will turn south through western Idaho and showers will increase in sern Oregon and swrn Idaho but decrease in nrn-most areas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will also continue in the central Idaho mountains where swly flow aloft rises over the higher terrain. Showers will decrease from the north Monday night as the low moves further south through Nevada.
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 As High Pressure at the Surface migrates eastward across the Commonwealth tonight, it will anchor over the mid Atlantic tmrw and a more zonal wswly flow aloft will quickly stream moisture into/overtop the PAH FA. The circulation around the High will retain an easterly lower tropospheric flow into tmrw am, while the column starts to saturate top-down in this overrunning environ. We'll then see the lower trop flow gradually veer tmrw pm and esp tmrw night as it becomes warm sectored and southerly.
1218 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers to portions of Washington and Idaho along and south of Interstate 90 today.
Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates a not-so-May-like pattern, with an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, an upper low over the Pacific Northwest, and some ridging over the Rockies. At 850mb, temperatures were decidedly cooler than normal across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with a stout ridge axis from KS/NE through the Dakotas/Sask/AB.
538 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cool pressure ridge will remain in the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will move off the coast Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
Still expecting a bit of a break later tonight, but then the low on the east side of the mountains will start to wind up. During the night the best moisture convergence will be across Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, but this should all slide southward Monday morning with the lower levels saturating, upslope winds, and persistent lift. Snow level should also be lowering a bit during the day, settling somewhere around 7-8 thousand feet on the east slopes with warmer low levels holding it higher on the west side. Could be some heavy snow in the afternoon, but warm temps will limit the impact in populated areas so just the highest roads are of concern. a broad closed upper low will stretch from Northwest NV into northwest CO.
At the surface, a high pressure is centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and low pressure is moving east across the Four Corners Region. A more significant disturbance ejects over the High Plains tomorrow afternoon. Cooler temps aloft and low level moisture should contribute to at least some MUCAPE, generally less than 750 J/KG. With the Tri-State Region well north of the cold front, severe weather should not be expected. With the upper low center over the INTERMOUNTAIN region becoming more cut off from the upper flow.
A secondary dry cold front over north Florida will be moving slowly southward over the peninsula tonight with high pressure following under a zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight with high cirrus clouds streaming overhead. By Monday a short wave will approach from over the gulf and on the surface the area of high pressure moves over the Atlantic with surface winds becoming easterly then southerly.
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cool pressure ridge will remain in the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will move off the coast Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
Northwest flow aloft will weaken as a deepening upper low settles over the southwestern CONUS. With dewpoints hovering in the low 30s as of Sunday afternoon, the dry lower levels will take some time to saturate as moisture returns to the area this evening.
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure will build over the area through Monday.
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Broad area of high pressure centered over the Midwest continues to gradually translate ewd into the TN/OH Valley states this Sun afternoon. In fact, the latter half of the global models are keying on a deepening upper trough pattern and associated sfc wave out of the Srn Plains translating ewd late Thu into Fri.
SFC obs/analysis shows upslope flow enhancing convection over the higher terrain this afternoon, w/main concerns being KFST/KCNM for the first few hours of TAF issuance.
/issued 1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016/ All recent model runs coming into agreement with bringing deep primarily our TX zones which are already seeing pop up convection with somewhat warmer temps being reported.
allowing for some slightly warmer air to shift over the area. Temperatures tonight will likely remain several degrees warmer than the record values achieved this morning. we expect low temperatures in most areas to be in the low 40s.
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure across the northern and central Plains will build into the Ohio Valley tonight resulting in clear skies and diminishing winds.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a low amplitude ridge over Texas with a trough extending from the Great Basin to the Gulf of California. During this period, an upper level low will close off over the northern Rockies and drop southward. The stationary front will move back northward as a warm front tonight and the low level flow will become southeasterly. The combination of moist flow in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere will lead to PW around 1. Monday afternoon and evening the warm front will still be close enough to our northeast to give us another chance for convection.
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 The short term concern is the shower threat dropping south with the cold front overnight into monday. Overnight low temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight than last night ahead of the front with some cloud cover.
Cooler air is beginning to move into the region as a Pacific low pressure system in the northwest U.
A chilly morning is underway across the region, with 2 AM temperatures across much of the area in the low 40s. Readings were a bit higher across far southwestern and southern Missouri, where mid level cloud cover was helping to keep things a few degrees warmer. Despite a fair amount of mid and upper level cloud cover, today should be rather pleasant, with light winds and highs in the low to mid 60s. Precipitation chances will increase from the west this evening and especially overnight, as isentropic ascent increases ahead/north of a slow moving warm front. That warm front will lift north Monday before stalling along along the Kansas/Oklahoma and Missouri/Arkansas state lines.
111 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure over the Central Plains will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight providing fair weather in our area. Warmer conditions are expected this upcoming week.
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A cold front will move through this morning followed by high pressure passing by to the north through Monday.
1221 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Main features at 500mb are closed upper low over southern Hudson Bay with trough extending into southeast conus and ridge over the intermountain west extending into Alaska. There is a closed low undercutting the western ridge moving through the Pacific Northwest. The lowest condensation pressure deficits and best lift arrive during the daytime hours Monday. where the forecast will retain the highest pops. The parent trough will sag south through the day on Monday.
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region. with sunshine and cooler temps in place to wrap up the weekend. Northwesterly winds will continue to lighten through the afternoon as the ridge axis drifts eastward. High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing plenty of sunshine and considerably lighter winds than yesterday. As high pressure shifts east of the region, a warm front will take shape and begin to approach from the southwest late tonight into Monday. Trailing ridge axis and associated dry low-level airmass will likely keep the precip at bay until Monday afternoon.
Tonight through Monday An upper level low pressure storm center over eastern Oregon moving into western Idaho continues to spread Pacific moisture into western and central Wyoming.
The low pressure to our west will continue pushing up against our ridge of high pressure and will direct plentiful amounts of Pacific Ocean moisture into the Rocky Mountains where most of it will rain out.
Afternoon temperatures ranged from the low 50s near Freeport, Illinois, to the low 60s from Mt. A warm front will lift north into the region Monday, with overrunning rain spreading into the far southern counties during the morning, then near the Interstate 80 corridor in the afternoon. The northern stream upper trough may also support some light rain in the far north. More widespread clouds and showers will result in cooler afternoon temperatures south, mainly in the low 60s, with upper 60s in the far north.
306 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Showers end and high pressure dominates tonight. Unsettled weather possible for the first half of the week, as low pressure systems cross the region. Attention then goes to the plummeting temperatures tonight as high pressure becomes the dominant synoptic scale feature that will center over the Tri State area. so this could work against getting those last couple of degrees to freezing as lowland temperatures are generally in the 31-32F range. High clouds thicken from the southwest late Monday heading into the short term with a warm front setting up shop just to the west.
325 PM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016 As expected, southwest flow ahead of the low pressure to our northwest allowed moisture to increase overnight and today. The stronger storms have produced some pea to dime sized hail but the bigger concern has been gusty surface winds with the highest report being 52MPH from the Montrose airport. By daybreak Monday, the low pressure will be just entering northern Utah with plenty of moisture still remaining in our CWA. Very similar conditions to Sunday will be in place though lift will be enhanced somewhat as the low gets closer. The low pressure will be slow moving as upper level support will remain to our west and east.
700 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure will build over the area through Monday.
Temperatures will be near normal for mid May today then trend warmer through midweek.
342 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 (Tonight and Monday) As of mid afternoon, a stationary front remains just south of the forecast area and will lift back north as a warm front across the CWA overnight. Will maintain chance POPs overnight as the warm front lifts north across the area. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s. West Central Texas will be in the warm sector on Monday, with a warm front located along the Red River to our north and a sharpening dryline along our western border late afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies Monday morning, will give way to partly cloudy skies by afternoon, with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s east, to the upper 80s west.
316 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Showers end and high pressure dominates tonight. Unsettled weather possible for the first half of the week, as low pressure systems cross the region. Attention then goes to the plummeting temperatures tonight as high pressure becomes the dominant synoptic scale feature that will center over the Tri State area. so this could work against getting those last couple of degrees to freezing as lowland temperatures are generally in the 31-32F range. High clouds thicken from the southwest late Monday heading into the short term with a warm front setting up shop just to the west.
while high pressure centered over the mid-south has ushered in a bit of drier air over the nrn zones as dewpoints have lingered in the 50s through much of the day.
Since there should be less time with cloud cover and a drainage wind from the north, went a degree of so cooler with lows from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
It has been a pretty great weekend weatherwise for mid May thanks to a dry cold front that traversed the region yesterday. This front helped to usher in drier air which then resulted in much cooler temperatures this morning and into this afternoon. After starting the day with lows only in the upper 50s/low 60s, we have only reached into the lower 70s this afternoon. This is around 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and even nearly 15-20 degrees cooler in some locales. Elsewhere, conditions will remain dry but the atmosphere will slowly moisten through tonight into the beginning of the work week as winds swing around from the south during this time period thanks to the stalled frontal boundary moving north as a warm front.
424 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure will move across the region tonight and into the day on Monday.
This trend will continue with the highest PoPs expected over eastern, northeastern, and southeastern OK tonight before the wave exits the region early tomorrow AM. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front will make it tomorrow but the overall agreement is somewhere near or just south of the KS/OK border. Then, later in the evening, storm coverage should increase near the triple point (NW OK) as the mid to upper trough moves near the KS/OK border and the cold front begins its surge to the south.
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Freezing temperatures are expected tonight before temperatures moderate into mid week. With 850mb temperatures expected to range form -2C to -4C, clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow for temperatures to fall to near or below freezing overnight. A freeze warning has been issued for all counties, with lowest temperatures into the mid 20s expected in the ridge counties.