Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low level moisture will continue to increase this evening into the overnight hours ahead of approaching cold front, which will move into northeast Oklahoma by mid/late evening. (Tonight through Sunday) Cold front stalls near or just south of I-40 on Monday with lingering storms possible near the boundary, possibly enhanced by modest surface heating during the afternoon. As positively tilted upper trough approaches from the west, storms will develop and grow upscale with an MCS likely tracking eastward into far southeast Oklahoma/north Texas.
Winds were also bumped a few knots as they seemed to be just under and the pressure gradient of the low was just a bit stronger than anticipated. MORNING DISCUSSION: A low pressure system located along the Montana/North Dakota border will continue east through the morning. Precipitation on the backside of this low is a mix of rain and snow. A flat upper ridge settles in across the northern Rockies/plains from this afternoon through Monday. A larger upper trough/low moves into the region Monday Night with a cold front.
(The rest of today ) Mid to high level clouds will continue to increase across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas today in advance of a cold front that will move into the area this evening.
A weak cold front has pushed through the Mid-South this morning. Return flow will set up across the region late tonight as high pressure slides east and another cold front slides into the Lower Mississippi Valley. High pressure will remain in control as it drifts ENE. Low pressure will track south of the Great Lakes and a cold front will push into northern parts of the Mid- South.
A strong surface pressure gradient force and strong mixing centered over west-central Nebraska should help wind gusts increase to 30 to 35 kts by late Monday north and west of a line from Albion to Wayne with highs reaching the lower 60's area-wide on an otherwise dry day.
At the surface, a dryline was analyzed from near Clarendon to Northfield to Post and a cold front was analyzed north of the forecast area from roughly Adrian to Happy to Pampa at 1:30 pm. The aforementioned cold front will sweep south through the area late this afternoon and early evening. Outflow boundaries produced from this activity may try to race northwards and interact with the southward moving cold front leading to elevated convection within our forecast area. Behind the cold front, winds will become northerly and remain breezy for much of the night. But with the colder air dropping into the forecast area tonight overnight lows will be a tad cooler than this morning mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. Early Monday morning 850 mb flow will ride up and over the surface cold front leading to expanding low-level clouds.
Portions of the area are seeing breaks in the wrap around clouds from last night's upper low. These clouds are associated with the long advertised upper low sliding across the northern Plains/upper Midwest currently. A weak warm front is also lifting along the mid- Mississippi River Valley and will continue to advance northeastwards with time. Temperatures on the warm side of the front should limit snow mixtures however, the combination of strong Fgen and temperatures near freezing north of the front will likely allow snow to mix with rain.
A warm front extends southeast towards St. Louis with an attendant cold front extending south through Lincoln, Nebraska and back into the Oklahoma Panhandle. A 1019mb high pressure center was located over the Mid-South. The aforementioned cold front is expected to swing eastward and into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening through tomorrow morning.
254 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Dry high pressure will build in through Monday.
Currently, mid level low pressure centered over southeast ND/northeast SD, with another embedded wave over far south central Canada. The rest of tonight will see a period of clearing skies as a subtle S/WV mid level ridge approaches, then increasing mid to upper level clouds overnight as an embedded wave follows the ridge. Lows will fall to below freezing at most if not all sites tonight. Though it will be breezy, temperatures will warm nicely, ranging in the lower 50s east to lower 60s west.
1234 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 High pressure will exit to the east this evening as a cold front moves into the north and stalls. Today Through Monday High pressure over the Tennessee Valley this morning will head to the east today/tonight. The high will keep it dry and mild today, with winds turning to the southeast. As the high moves farther away tonight, a cold front will be allowed to settle into northern Arkansas from the Plains.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 72 50 69 56 / 0 0 10 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 70 49 70 55 / 0 10 10 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 39 70 48 69 53 / 0 10 10 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 68 43 71 53 / 0 10 10 80 70.
145 PM PDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Marine layer clouds west of the mountains tonight will dissipate Monday as high pressure builds over the region. The deserts and the higher mountains will be mostly sunny with scattered high clouds.
Wrap around precipitation, currently in Aberdeens forecast area, will push into the Highway 14 corridor.
While the height of the inversion and depth of PBL mixing will increase gradually through the day on Monday into Monday night, it appears likely that ample cloud cover will remain as moisture remains trapped in the lower levels, and additional showers will become possible primarily late Monday night as another weak low passes to our south. Additionally, the increasing depth of mixing will likely be enough to produce some gusty winds, although not quite as gusty as experienced in recent days - gusts should top out in the low to mid 20KT range. Thicknesses suggest slightly warmer lows Monday night and NBM seemed reasonable here.
Cold front, through DHT and GUY, will advance through AMA this afternoon, causing westerly winds to turn clockwise to north- northeasterly.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s. Water vapor imagery highlights a sharpening upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Lapse rates should be steepening over the next several hours as the trough axis approaches. The upper trough axis will be very near the Keys on Monday and Monday night, with an improved veering profile in the lower troposphere, so we maintain rain/thunder chances above the consensus.
354 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather tonight. Periodic precipitation chances are then expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. A fast- moving trough will clip the northern portion of the CWA on Monday. Dry weather is expected by Monday night with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature.
Northeasterly flow is keeping us a touch cooler today before a warm up begins tomorrow into midweek.
Midlevel lift associated with the northern stream trough has developed a band of showers towards southeast Nebraska. Lingering cloud cover and weak CAA on the backside of the system cools high tomorrow by a few degrees into the lower 60s. The warm front lifts northward with showers expected to develop along and south of it Monday evening.
Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the previously mentioned baggy southern periphery of the high cell will continue to spread southeastwards. Expect overnight lows to settle down in to the lower to mid 70s with dew points lingering near 70. Ridging spreading southeastward across Florida and the Bahamas will eventually push light breezes east to southeasterly overnight.
823 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 A high pressure cell extending from OH into the TN valley will shift southeast tonight. On Monday, a southern stream trough will advance quickly eastward across the southern CONUS in advance of a strong upr jet and associated trough beginning to dig into the NW CONUS.
/issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022/ High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley at mid-afternoon. Aloft, northern stream is rather active with troughs over New England, the northern Plains and British Columbia.
545 PM MDT Sun Apr 3 2022 The cold front that moved through earlier today and brought some measurable snow and rain to the region has started to wash out as upper level support moves to eastern Colorado. Expect rain for the valleys though Pagosa Springs might see a dusting as temperatures hover around freezing there. While the closed low will stay well to our north, favorable flow and the ample moisture that has advected in will allow some orographic snows for the Park and Gore Ranges to form late Monday night.
915 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather tonight. Periodic precipitation chances are then expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. A fast- moving trough will clip the northern portion of the CWA on Monday. Dry weather is expected by Monday night with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature.
A cold front wl drop slowly into N AR on Monday and eventually stall out.
209 PM PDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Cooler Monday but mostly dry conditions for interior northern California then becoming seasonably warm this week.
The aforementioned trough will move past our CWA by the mid morning tomorrow and it will create QG descent in its wake. There will be a strong jet stream and trough the enters the Pacific Northwest region tomorrow and this will be responsible for creating strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. As flow aloft increases due to the nearing jet stream, winds will increase over the mountains by the afternoon with gusts up to 50 mph along the higher ridges.
High pressure will slide eastward to our north overnight, keeping the area ensconced in a modified continental air mass. On Monday, a southern stream trough will advance quickly eastward across the southern CONUS in advance of a strong upr jet and associated trough beginning to dig into the NW CONUS.
Surface analysis this evening places an area of low pressure in Northeast Oklahoma with a trailing cold front back into the Texas Panhandle and a warm front extending from the low into Eastern Oklahoma. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate some mid/high clouds moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A warm front extends southeast towards St. Louis with an attendant cold front extending south through Lincoln, Nebraska and back into the Oklahoma Panhandle. A 1019mb high pressure center was located over the Mid-South. The aforementioned cold front is expected to swing eastward and into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening through tomorrow morning.
Today will see pressure gradient tighten as low pressure develops and moves into the western dakotas. Will continue to watch guidance and depth of the inversion to see if the higher speeds can be realized tonight. Pacific moisture will move out of the NW CONUS and into the northern plains early in the week as an upper low sinks into the upper midwest from Canada. Rain will impact portions of the short term, but as the upper low shifts east and a deformation zones sets up over the CWA, a transition to snow may occur as dynamic cooling helps cool the column. However, H500 cluster analysis of the upper low show a significant variation in the placement of the low, giving low confidence in the placement of the deformation zone.
248 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Dry weather is expected tonight with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature. Another round of rain showers is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north across the region.
The dry airmass remains over the area, and it looks like mixing this afternoon will allow relative humidity values dip into the low to mid 20s across much of the area.
355 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Will begin to transition to a warmer, more tropical airmass today as sfc flow veers to the south and eventually southwest. Zonal flow will exist aloft ahead of a positively tilted trough swinging across the southwestern CONUS. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s with high clouds moving through the area. An active short term period will exist, as a warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. For one, the better moisture advection will be suppressed to our south during the morning and early afternoon hours, and dewpoints look to remain in the low to mid 50s.
The trough will bring southerly/southwesterly winds and despite the cloud cover, will help warm the surface and bring in some additional moisture. Some light showers are possible, mainly near the KY border today associated with that trough. Otherwise just expecting widespread showers during the day Tuesday as the trough moves through.
Low pressure over western Wisconsin will slowly move across the cwa today. Rain and snow have developed over Wisconsin in response to strong isentropic lift ahead of the low. This line will move northeast this morning as warmer air pushes north ahead of the low.
Temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land mostly from the southeast near 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts a weak front stalled across the far southern tip of Florida, with high pressure building into the Mid Atlantic. Aloft, westerly flow continues across the Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge suppressed southward into the Caribbean. A subtle upper trough embedded in this westerly flow is shifting eastward across the Gulf. Ample moisture/instability and the nearby upper trough will continue to provide a favorable environment for convection today into tonight, but lack of low-level forcing may be the limiting factor, with the nearby surface front expected to lift back northward and away from our area as a warm front today.
Midlevel lift associated with the northern stream trough has developed a band of showers towards southeast Nebraska. Lingering cloud cover and weak CAA on the backside of the system cools high tomorrow by a few degrees into the lower 60s. The warm front lifts northward with showers expected to develop along and south of it Monday evening. Next chance of rain arrives by Tuesday afternoon with the next upper trough swinging through the central plains. Confidence is increasing for a deepening cyclone over the Great Lakes region, tightening the pressure gradient on all levels downstream of the system into the central plains.
313 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022 An upper level trough currently seen on water vapor imagery in the southwestern CONUS will sharpen as it rapidly approaches the area today. An upper level jet streak located from approximately Baja California to far West Texas will progress eastward with the trough today. Dry northwesterly flow aloft will establish and persist through the rest of the forecast period as longwave upper troughing lingers over the eastern CONUS.
300 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022 The period starts of with somewhat flat mid-level ridging over the Northern Plains, but that will quickly change. This system will eventually become a closed upper low over the Upper Mississippi valley/western Great Lakes mid-week.
High pressure builds northeast of the region and into the Western Atlantic with a southerly steering flow developing and Sunny skies today will give way to increasing clouds tonight ahead of approaching storm system. Increasing moisture tonight as warm frontal boundary lifts north through the area may be enough to trigger an isolated late night shower, but overall expect mainly dry conditions this period. Surface flow will become southeast today and with plentiful sunshine expect highs into the lower to middle 80s inland, while onshore flow at the Atlantic coast will hold max temps in the mid/upper 70s.
1141 PM MDT Sun Apr 3 2022 The cold front that moved through earlier today and brought some measurable snow and rain to the region has started to wash out as upper level support moves to eastern Colorado. Expect rain for the valleys though Pagosa Springs might see a dusting as temperatures hover around freezing there. While the closed low will stay well to our north, favorable flow and the ample moisture that has advected in will allow some orographic snows for the Park and Gore Ranges to form late Monday night. The main closed low will move across the Dakotas on Tuesday and Tuesday night with wraparound northwest flow continuing across the forecast area. With high pressure situated off the coast of SoCal, a strong pressure/height gradient will be draped across eastern Utah and western Colorado.
A strong ridge will begin to build across the eastern Pacific on Monday, and strengthen through this week, with record heat possible by late week.
Surface analysis showed a 1007 mb low over southeast MN and a cold front extending south into eastern IA. The cold front sinks toward I-70 this afternoon, before stalling ahead of a developing southern stream wave. Tonight, the low amplitude southern stream wave ejects from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, spreading elevated warm advection forced showers north across southern IL. Quickly on the heels of this system, an expansive and deep closed upper low digging southeast out of the northern Plains, sends an occluded front into the region Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the 60s and 70s, possibly lower 80s along the I-10 corridor.
The low pressure center will be quick to move across the area, which will help the low clouds to break and lift this afternoon from west to east. NW winds will be gusty this morning, but as the low move into the southern Great Lakes this afternoon they should die off. A strong area of low pressure will remain well to our north through the day and punch a cold front through the area during the afternoon and evening, leading to another round of widespread rain. A southern stream wave may clip the south and east-central counties with light rain during the morning and afternoon, before the rain associated with the deep upper low/cold front.
Meteorological Analysis: A cold front making its way into northwest Oklahoma will reach Ponca City to Watonga to Quanah, Tx by 00z tonight (approximately), with a dryline developing and stretching southward from Quanah, Tx (approximately). HREF shows MUCAPE of 1000-1500 joules and deep layer shear of 35-45 knots, with the highest moisture / instability concentrated in a narrow corridor just east of the dryline / front.
355 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 High pressure will move off to the east tonight.
High pressure over the OH Valleys is drifting east this morning. Clouds are on increase as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes and a cold front approaches the Mid-South from the NW. The cold front will drift SE into northern sections of the Mid-South today. A potent upper trough will push into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Low pressure will develop along the stalled front across the ARLATEX and move ENE. A warm front will lift toward the Mid-South late tonight. Thunderstorms will blossom across the ARKLATEX by midnight and a MCS will organize and race across the Lower MS Valley late tonight.
Anticipate a slow moistening of the lower levels into the evening, with gradually increasing chances for light rain and drizzle. As the cold front finally advances eastward into the region, more focused lift will support greater rain chances, especially in central and southern Missouri along the boundary into the overnight hours. On Monday, ahead of a broad 500mb trough crossing the southwest, a swath of ample isentropic ascent will set up across the southern Plains and Ozarks, maintaining a focus for rain and thunder on Monday.
A high pressure cell extending from OH into the TN valley will shift southeast tonight. On Monday, a southern stream trough will advance quickly eastward across the southern CONUS in advance of a strong upr jet and associated trough beginning to dig into the NW CONUS. A wave of low pressure will develop along a developing warm front as it moves NEWRD into the TN Valley late Monday night into Tuesday morning. 5 inches, with the higher amounts favored generally in southern areas closer to greater atmospheric moisture.
However, with the moisture continuing to increase, boundary across the area, and the approaching upper trough, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and continue into tonight. Showers/storms are expected to move east of the fa later tonight/early Tuesday as the upper trough begins to exit the region.
A large upper low will wobble into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night, and the associated cold front will enter our region after midnight.
Dry conditions and warming temperatures expected through Tuesday before a cold front pushes through midweek.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 51 69 58 78 / 0 10 90 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 49 70 57 80 / 0 10 90 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 71 48 68 54 78 / 10 10 90 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 46 71 54 78 / 10 10 80 70 30.
Wrap around precipitation, currently in Aberdeens forecast area, will push into the Highway 14 corridor. No significant model changes to the the mid week system, as an upper level trough dives into the Northern Plains on Tuesday.
Rain will spread into the lower valleys as well overnight, with chances for thunderstorms across E WA and N ID Monday afternoon.
With good radiating conditions present for most of the night, temperatures were able to tumble to around freezing thus far in the coldest valleys, and will likely settle around 30 with widespread frost. That being the case, thinning could result in warmer temps than currently forecast, and thickening could hold us cooler.
PM PDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Cooler Monday but mostly dry conditions for interior northern California then becoming seasonably warm this week.
This boundary will merge with another cold front pushing into the state and will stall across north Florida on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, model consensus depicts high pressure building over the SE CONUS, Which will influence our synoptic flow and veer it more to the SE today. Models also show the remnants of the front finally moving away from the area late Tuesday, as a trough pushes across the SE CONUS. Warm temps continue each day with daytime highs in the low-mid 80s near the coast, and in the upper 70s inland.
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022 (Tonight) The main concern tonight is the potential for localized heavier rains, primarily across parts of northeast Oklahoma, as widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms expand mid to late evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A good chunk of the latest model solutions pinpoint far northeast Oklahoma for a localized band of 1"+ rainfall right around midnight, as this area is near a local enhancement of the low level jet - albeit a weaker one than that expected to develop farther southwest. A limiting factor for the higher totals indicated by some of the CAMs is that the favorable conditions will likely not last long due to the expected frontal progression.
727 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 A frontal boundary just to the south of the peninsula early this morning will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front later today. This boundary will merge with another cold front pushing into the state and will stall across north Florida on Tuesday.
An upper level trough over the Rockies will continue moving eastward today, moving across Texas tonight, and vacating the region Tuesday. By Tuesday, a mid level ridge will begin to develop in the wake of the disturbance.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today and Tuesday with breezy conditions continuing.
The lower levels, generally below 700 millibars, are fairly dry as indicated by model soundings today. A ridge of high pressure at the surface nosing into the central High Plains from the Midwest will keep winds on the light side today. An upper level low pressure system currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska is progged to move out into the northern High Plains by Tuesday morning. This will push a cold front south through the central High Plains during the day. Initially, a dryline and some warmer air will move out into southwest Kansas ahead of the cold front. Warmer temperatures are in store for Tuesday with highs generally in the 70s.