Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Spotters reporting very light accumulations, even over the higher elevations.
548 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 By late this afternoon, the cold front responsible for some scattered showers today has made its way almost to the Indiana border. at least on elevated surfaces and bridges.
North winds have diminished slightly but high pressure will build into the region tonight and north-northeast winds will be gusty along the coast. Northeast winds Saturday morning will veer to easterly by the afternoon as the high pressure ridge moves to the east. Cold front positioned over the Texas Hill Country this afternoon will move into the area by mid evening (will make progress by early evening), with increasing north to northeast winds as the pressure rises and pressure gradient increases. Thus, a cooler night tonight and especially cooler on Saturday. Most guidance for highs is cooler than previous forecast, so went with it.
Gusty winds decrease some tonight but increase again late ahead of a cold front.
840 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 The cold front has pushed out of the state, and developed convection over western MS an parts east. A cold front is developing elevated winds from the northwest and winds will be 10 to 20 mph this evening as it moves through the state, lowering to 5 to 15 mph overnight. (59) A cold front will gradually move through AR this evening, and develop isolated showers.
Upper level trough remains entrenched over the West this evening with cold unstable air aloft over the region. With the cold unstable air aloft, expect isolated snow showers to develop during the afternoon heating on Saturday, mainly over the higher terrain.
The low pressure system which pushed the this front through may allow for lingering light showers across the northwestern Panhandles. After today, westerly flow will be in place, which will help induce lee side trough across eastern New Mexico and aid in bringing gusty southwest winds across the western half of the Panhandles.
/ISSUED 358 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ The gusty northwest winds behind the overnight cold front have started to decrease this afternoon. The low clouds that were immediately behind the front has shifted off to the east leaving sunny skies area wide. With temperatures starting off 15 to 20 degrees lower than they were this morning, it will be cooler Saturday despite the insolation.
All locations expected to fall below freezing by Saturday morning.
A cold front is currently situated just west and nearly parallel to the Mississippi River. Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the region on Saturday with temperatures remaining only in the upper 40s and lower 50s during the day.
929 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing ahead of cold front moving into middle Tennessee at mid evening. South to southeast winds were increasing in the higher Smoky Mountains and will be gusting over 40 mph until early Saturday.
Scattered to broken cu within VFR can be expected along and ahead of a cold front advancing across the forecast area this evening. With any significant moisture confined to only the lower levels, the boundary will come through dry. /issued 430 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ Temps today climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region ahead of a dry cold front that is moving through the lakes region of southeast Texas attm. Aftn temps tmrw will be in the low to mid 60s or about a 20 degree drop from today which should put us near our 30 year climo range.
350 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 Snow showers were increasing across most of the higher trrn at 2 pm. Stronger gusts will occur in the higher elevations.
It's a very interesting scenario because it appears, initially, the low level easterly flow will be favorable for advection fog along the I-95 corridor. The low level flow, however, will veer to the southwest after midnight and this may eventually push whatever fog is able to develop along the Atlantic coast back offshore by sunrise.
421 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 Upper low has moved over western IA, and weak ridging has developed over then northern Rockies. Another upper low is moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Short wave trough will across the area Sat night/Sun morning and produce light snow mainly in the southern Red River Valley. Flat upper level ridge will move over the area Sun night and another trough will move across southern Canada Mon. Cooler air will move in to the area Mon. Another trough moves through Tue night/Wed morning with some light snow.
925 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Cold front has now cleared our extreme southeast zones but not before isolated showers and thunderstorms developed along the boundary from Monroe south and west to near Alexandria earlier. /issued 612 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ For the 25/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions to prevail with clearing skies this evening behind a departing cold front.
535 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 The cold front is through the area at this time and into eastern Illinois. It will feel pretty cold though since we haven't seen lows in the 20s to low 30s in more than a week! Clouds will clear out on Saturday with high pressure building overhead. Seasonal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid 40s along and south of the I-70 corridor cooling to the mid and upper 30s further north.
A cold upper trough over the area this morning will shift east this afternoon.
The cold front that has been pushing through SE TX should clear the coastline in the next hour or so, with a wind shift out of the NW. High pressure will build in from the west following the front this evening, and remain in control through Saturday.
20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over the upper Midwest and middle MO river valley. Another upper trough was noted over the Pacific Northwest coast with a quasi zonal flow in between. If the clouds hold on through the morning, lows could be a couple degrees warmer. Saturday looks to be another relatively cold day with highs in the lower and mid 40s. Forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to around 850MB supporting the forecast highs in the lower and middle 40s. There may be some potential for afternoon highs to be a little warmer with MOS guidance a little warmer than my forecast.
High pressure sagging south from central Canada extends well into the Northern Plains. Aloft, a pivoting upper level trough is swinging through the area and will shift atop Lake Michigan by daybreak tomorrow morning. On Saturday night, at trough of low pressure pushing east across North Dakota will bring some light snow to northern MN, grazing central MN north of I-94.
Northwest winds will slacked after 03Z as cold front continues to move eastward. /Issued 329 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ Much different feel to today, as temperatures currently running anywhere from 25 to 40 degrees cooler than this time yesterday; but still not far off seasonal norms. Given the low dew points in place, forecast lows will side with cooler MET/MAV numbers as most areas see temperatures in the 20s, and a few teens possible in normally colder spots near the KS/OK border.
Dry conditions on the plains with warmer temperatures during the day. After which time, models show this plume of moist rising air translating southward causing a steady reduction in snowfall chances across the high country later that night.
Periods of IFR conditions possible in outlying sites of the east coast such as KTMB and KFXE as well as KAPF/Naples during that time frame, but can't rule out periods of IFR at east coast metro terminals Weak trough offshore could produce a couple of showers over the Atlantic late tonight and early Saturday, but no impacts expected at terminals. Light west flow kicks in after 14z as conditions improve, with sea breezes prevailing from 18z onward on Saturday as a cold front remains well to our north. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND WELL EAST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A WEAK REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Forecast remains generally unchanged in the short term with a strong cold front anticipated to sweep across the cwa this evening.
910 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 A cold front will bring rain and gusty wind tonight and early Saturday.
Proton PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: This period will be controlled by an upper trough over the area with disturbances dropping into the area. Abundant moisture under the trough will continue to contribute to light snow showers or flurries through Saturday.
Freezing drizzle now affecting much of the area will expand southeast into the Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha areas over the next 2 to 3 hours as temperatures cool. Ongoing drizzle across southern WI due to shallow saturated air warmer than -8C (the snow growth zone), and weak lift as low pressure tracks through northern IL and southern MI. Temperatures are hovering just below freezing across much of south central WI this afternoon. Expect temps to drop below freezing in portions of southeast WI through late afternoon as the sun goes down. Light ice accumulations due to freezing drizzle on untreated roads could cause slippery driving conditions during the afternoon commute. It should take a little longer for far southeast WI to drop below freezing, so we should have a shorter time period of freezing drizzle than inland areas.
1016 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight.
556 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 A cold front tonight will bring rain and gusty wind.
836 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 The recent snowfall will provide plentiful moisture and with very cold temperatures tonight, freezing fog will develop across the North Platte River Valley. Freezing fog has already begun to develop at Alliance bringing visibility down to 1/2 mile.
Cold front pushing into West Tennessee this hour. A cold front is currently situated just west and nearly parallel to the Mississippi River. Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the region on Saturday with temperatures remaining only in the upper 40s and lower 50s during the day.
The upper level low off the Oregon coast continues to move southward. As the low continues to drop southward the forecast area will be under a dry northerly flow with just a few lingering showers near the Oregon Cascades.
1018 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Mostly clear skies were observed earlier this evening across most of the Keys, with the exception of low stratus clouds that affected the west end of the Lower Keys. Temperatures were in the lower 70s along the Keys with 5 to 10 knots winds from the west northwest. A low pressure system to the east of northern Florida will continue to move northeast tonight and tomorrow Saturday along the southeast coast of United States. A low pressure bordering the south side of the Great Lakes this weekend and its extending trough to the southwest, will move east over the southeast U.
547 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Satellite and upper air data showing the main low/trough axis which brought accumulating snowfall to the CWA continuing to slide east across the Plains this afternoon. At the surface, as expected, gusty north-northwest winds have been in place behind the cold front, with CAA and a tightened pressure gradient.
520 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 In the wake of the cold front that passed through the region this morning, breezy winds were bringing cooler temperatures into the Ozarks. Temperatures overnight will be cooler than the past week as well with overnight lows dropping into the middle 20s under cloudy skies. Despite the sun, the cold Canadian airmass that will slide over the area will keep temperatures more seasonable with highs in the lower 40s.
559 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A cold front just nw of GLH at 2330Z will move across the area overnight. VFR conds are expected to prevail through Saturday but, vcty TSRA wl be psbl this evng HKS-JAN-GTR- MEI ahead of the cold front. /22/ Tonight through Saturday: Surface cold front moving through AR at the moment not producing anything more than cloud cover and a few light showers. This has been expected as the low level cap has held strong. Temperatures Saturday will be about 20 degrees cooler than today, but closer to normal for this time of year.
612 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 At H5 closed low moving into Pacific Northwest. dirty ridge into northern Rockies and closed low that brought snow to western Nebraska over Omaha with snow finished over western Nebraska.
Unsettled weather will continue for the next few days as a series of cold low pressure systems impacts Northwest California.
Temperatures will fall into the lower teens tonight and recover to the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday afternoon.
/issued 250 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ It has been a while since we have seen freezing temperatures in some of the forecast area, but we will see one tonight across most of the area.
This stacked ridging overhead will produce dry subsidence aloft while abundant surface moisture keeps warm and humid conditions in place under the low level inversion.
644 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Low pressure will track across the Central Lakes tonight dragging a strong cold front across the forecast area, ushering in more seasonal conditions. A trough will swing across the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
Seeing some areas of lower cloud cover across parts of the CWA this afternoon, but expect them to lift or dissipate tonight as high pressure settles in. A weak low pressure system will move over the Northern Plains on Saturday, and in association with an approaching mid level trough, may produce a few light snow showers, mainly over the northwestern CWA closest to the trough.
430 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Temps today climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region ahead of a dry cold front that is moving through the lakes region of southeast Texas attm. Aftn temps tmrw will be in the low to mid 60s or about a 20 degree drop from today which should put us near our 30 year climo range.
Drier and cooler conditions are forecast through tonight with chilly overnight temperatures. A minor ridge of high pressure built into our region today allowing for mostly sunny conditions along with fairly light winds. After a cold start this morning temperatures have bounced back a bit ahead of yesterday with many spots in the low to mid 50s. Locations will drop back into the 30s to lower 40s tonight -- generally 2 to 4 degrees warmer than this morning.
The warmest readings will end up along the snowless areas in the Highway 14 corridor.
Another cold front will push south overnight with northeasterly winds around 10 kts taking over.
Dry conditions will prevail through Saturday along with cooler temperatures.
Currently, an upper ridge extends through the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream west coast trough and northwest flow into North Dakota. This is forecast to be replaced with an upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a building ridge downstream along the west coast by March 6th. This would correspond to a warming trend with the upper ridge developing along the west coast during this time.
A cold front is developing elevated winds from the northwest and winds will be 10 to 20 mph this evening as it moves through the state, lowering to 5 to 15 mph overnight. (59) A cold front will gradually move through AR this evening, and develop isolated showers.
At 9pm local radars showed a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front that stretched from Eupora to Yazoo City to Natchez. The cold front and associated storms will shift southeast of the Natchez Trace by midnight and continue southeast clearing our CWA well before sunrise. Morning lows still look on track to bottom out in the low to mid 40s at most locations. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Saturday: Surface cold front moving through AR at the moment not producing anything more than cloud cover and a few light showers. This has been expected as the low level cap has held strong. Temperatures Saturday will be about 20 degrees cooler than today, but closer to normal for this time of year.
The first batch associated with the pre frontal trough is moving through NW AL while the secondary area, associated with the front itself, continues to drift through central MS. With the line(s) of storms expected to shift out of the area after midnight, cooler air will begin to usher in with high pressure reestabiling over the area tomorrow. High pressure will build across the area on Saturday, keeping skies clear.
Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley tonight are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than last night, with most locations staying at or above 32. A low pressure system off the Washington State coast will drop south along the west coast tonight and Saturday. The low will be near the central California coast by late Saturday afternoon and evening.
Stratus and stratocumulus rotating through SW KS on the backside of the departing cyclone will be slow to dissipate this afternoon, but ceilings will eventually lift and scatter out through sunset. High pressure over SW KS at sunrise will exit rapidly stage right during the day, ending up in the Mississippi valley by 6 pm.
With the surface pressure gradient looking less tight and the low level lapse rates not as steep tonight, lowered the sustained wind speeds into the 15 to 25 mph range and wind gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range.
906 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 With the cold front currently moving off the coast, no issues are expected for SE TX the rest of the night. The cold front that has been pushing through SE TX should clear the coastline in the next hour or so, with a wind shift out of the NW. High pressure will build in from the west following the front this evening, and remain in control through Saturday.
614 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight.
Highs tomorrow will only be in the 60s with the north winds and temperatures will feel much cooler around the area.
The cold front will push through around midnight or an hour or two after, bringing a quick end to the precip. Strong cold advection behind the front will send temperatures crashing, with Sat morning readings ranging from just above freezing in southern Indiana to the lower/mid 40s near the I-75 corridor. Look for gradual clearing Sat night as the mid-level trof exits, and temps will drop into the 20s, which is actually just a few degrees below climo.
We expect patchy fog to continue to develop around the region prior to the arrival of the cold front late tonight. 00Z, but expect cigs and visibility to gradually reduce to MVFR to IFR levels this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
926 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Low pressure will track across the Central Lakes tonight dragging a strong cold front across the forecast area, ushering in more seasonal conditions. A trough will swing across the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
We've been monitoring convective activity on what seems to be a pre-frontal trough over the last couple of hours. A couple of cores have peaked out at decent heights, but with dew points in the low to mid 50s ahead of this trough, we're not getting the surface based instability to really help spike these storms at anything more than "strong". The HRRR has had the majority of the development on this pre-frontal trough, where the NAM shows the development on the front itself, which is currently back over W Tennessee, nearing Clarksville. With the limited instability, I still think the best money is on this pre-frontal trough for any severe potential this evening. After the cold front passes, winds will flip to the northwest and remain around 10 to 15 knots sustained with gusts to around 20 knots.
Pencil-thin ridging over the central Peninsula is helping to "fill the void" left behind by this weeks low. Weak high pressure settling across Florida and eastern Gulf will weaken northerly winds over the waters to 5-10 knots.
Winds have been slow to pick up over the Gulf waters this evening but an increase in high pressure was slowly moving into the coastal waters at this time. Winds will quickly pick up over the next 2-3 hours over the Gulf waters as high pressure builds in. North winds have diminished slightly but high pressure will build into the region tonight and north-northeast winds will be gusty along the coast. Northeast winds Saturday morning will veer to easterly by the afternoon as the high pressure ridge moves to the east.
249 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 At 2 am, a cold front with a band of showers was moving onto the Cumberland Plateau. Early morning temperatures will be in the lower 40s. Today will be mostly sunny but much cooler. Sunday night looks very cold as the high pressure center moves over Mid TN. Lows will fall to the lower to mid 20s, but some of the usual colder valleys east of I-65 could dip into the teens.
Light and variable winds shift to N and NW with some gusts as high pressure follows the front. 00Z KTBW showed strong subsidence inversion near 850 mb, so this higher moisture will likely get trapped below the inversion allowing for some fog to develop in spots.
1002 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 Upper level trough was over the MN arrowhead with an upper level jet on the west side of the trough. Current thinking is to keep things around the 20 degree mark in the snow free zones while dropping into the low to mid teens where there is snow. Not a terrible mid November day on tap for Saturday as high pressure builds in. Although cooler than the first half of the month, high temperatures should be right around normal values, give or take a few degrees (low to mid 30s). 500 mb ridging moves into the N Plains Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of the storm system moving off to the east.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating still deepening 995 MB low center acrs northwest into north central WI ATTM, with main trailing cold front east of the DVN CWA. A few spotty light showers/sprinkles noted acrs central IA under llvl trof shear axis, will look to try and advect east-northeast acrs portions of the CWA west of the MS RVR thru sunset. Aloft, closed upper low was evident on the current water vapor loop acrs east central MN/MSP area. With mixing winds and cloud cover taken into account, will keep the low temps in the lower 30s east of the MS RVR, and into the upper 20s to the west.
High pressure from the west builds into western Kansas by early morning helping to decrease winds and push cloud cover east. Lows will range from the low to mid 20s throughout northeast Kansas. With winds not completely calm overnight, wind chill values will drop into the teens, with the lowest values seen in north central Kansas around 15 degrees. By Saturday afternoon, the high pressure will be located over northern Oklahoma expanding into northeast Kansas. On Sunday high pressure will be retreating eastward, which will cause return flow to develop across eastern KS. Warmer temperatures from the southwest will allow the highs to reach the 50s.
209 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 The cold front has passed the entire area and latest radar trends indicate that the precipitation has ended across our region. Meanwhile, we will be under northwest flow aloft, as the upper trough pushes east and a ridge slowly pushes east into the Plains.
Light precipitation will develop over southeast Oregon mostly after 12Z Saturday morning well ahead of a deep upper low approaching the Pac NW coast. Increasingly moist southwest flow aloft will bring a chance of light rain and snow to western and northern areas Saturday and Saturday night, then to the entire CWA Sunday as the main Pacific trough moves onto the coast.
The center of the cold high pressure system will settle into the freeze watch area tonight and result in light winds, clear skies and ideal radiational cooling. However, can't rule out any freezing temperatures in the areas outside of the Freeze Warning, especially in low lying river valleys. A Freeze Watch for tomorrow night will be more probable across the Northwest Hill Country counties by Sunday morning as the center of the high will be closer to that region. Temperatures will a little warmer across the remainder of the area, mainly at or above freezing.