Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, a 1040mb high pressure center, indicative of a cold Arctic airmass, will dive southward out of the Canadian prairie today. This will push a cold front into west Texas throughout the day. The coldest air won't move in until later tonight, so highs today look to reach the upper 50s across the Big Country and Heartland, and the low to mid 60s for the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau.
305 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Strong high pressure system continues to spill into the region from the northwest, bringing steady northerly winds today and keeping temperatures around freezing despite what is becoming a sunny day for portions along and west of I-65 this afternoon. As we get deeper into tomorrow, expect that high pressure to scoot by to our north. Expect readings for most to stay below freezing, save for perhaps our southern KY border counties.
Upper level ridge moving across Colorado in the north-northwest flow aloft will bring a mostly sunny and dry day. There will be a brief respite on Wednesday as high pressure builds under moderate north to northwest flow aloft.
1135 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 (Today and tonight) Colder air will continue to move into Oklahoma today with the ridge of the air mass remaining in Oklahoma into Wednesday. As this upper trough moves slowly toward central NM by sunrise Wednesday, the chance for snow spreads southward along the western Oklahoma border.
The band will slowly propagate southward over the next several hours as the main UL trof swings through. For tonight, a relatively cold night is expected with values ranging from the positive upper single digits to the lower teens. For Wednesday, cold high pressure will prevail across the FA. Highs around freezing should prevail for much of the area with the coldest readings across the deeper snowpack.
Usually in these scenarios we end up with some stronger banding despite the low inversion heights. However, will wait to see how the trough looks as it is advecting very cold and slightly drier air.
1045 AM MST Tue Jan 25 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion An upper ridge/high is centered off the US west coast this morning with upper low just east of Hudson Bay and northerly flow in between across the Northern Rockies and MT. Low clouds extend from Havre south to Lewistown and into Gallatin county this morning with a few lingering flurries south of the Little Belts and some freezing fog earlier this morning in the Gallatin Valley. Drier and more stable air works into the region from NW to SE today with the incoming ridging for clearing and dry conditions across all areas by this afternoon. A period of drifting snow is possible as winds increase late this morning, but fairly wet/dense nature of snow and temps warming above freezing should limit the extent and duration of any impacts to visibility.
The inversion weakened from the passing short wave trough last night, although it did not remove it as evidenced by the widespread stratus southeast of Ontario, along with patchy fog in some valleys. The upper level trough that moved southward through Idaho last night increased wind speeds and mixing heights in southwest Idaho and far eastern Oregon. The trough also helped erode some the valley inversions. The trough had less effect in Oregon, and an Air Stagnation Advisory remains over north-central Harney County.
/28/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Rain will exit the forecast area through early afternoon as a dry cold front moves through the region. Behind the exiting cold front, high pressure will steadily build into the region.
A 1038 mb high pressure center has continued to move southeast into the central plains, bringing very cold temperatures into the Midwest. Some of this arctic air has filtered into Kansas as temperatures across the area have finally made it into the low to mid 20s. Overnight tonight, temperatures will fall back into the low teens and upper single digits.
335 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Arctic high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday.
242 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Surface observations this afternoon show our forecasted cold front to be just through northern GA. Low temperatures tonight will fall below freezing north of I20 as cold air advection occurs in the wake of the cold front.
The current pattern is likely to remain through the rest of today and into the evening, which will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night.
Little to no snow Colder temperatures are expected to move into the area later tonight and through Wednesday as a cold front tracks across the region and brings some potential for showers along with it. Overnight tonight through Wednesday morning, expect freezing to near freezing temperatures ranging in the mid 20s to lower 30s North of a San Angelo to Hall line.
255 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Arctic high pressure sits over the eastern half of the Northern Plains this afternoon, keeping temperatures cold but allowing plentiful sunshine. A warm front will begin to enter the state later this evening, scouring out the Arctic air and causing temperatures to rise overnight. It will also become breezy overnight in response to deepening low pressure over Manitoba, especially along higher terrain. The westerly component to the low level wind field favors temperatures exceeding guidance, even when taking into account snowpack. Areas along and to the south and west of the Missouri River have either little to no snow or a coating of ice on top from freezing rain within the past several days.
(The rest of today ) It's a much cooler start t the day today following the passage of a cold front yesterday. Gusty northerly winds will also make it feel even cooler most of the day, with gusts near 20 mph expected throughout the day.
The current cold snap will hang on for one more night and morning as the high pressure center currently over the Dakotas slides across Iowa late tonight. Further south and west return flow will kick in a bit earlier overnight as the high begins to move away, keeping temperatures from falling as far, though they will still get below zero everywhere. During the day Wednesday the cold high pressure area will move away pretty quickly to the east and southeast over Illinois, allowing southerly low-level flow to accelerate over our service area and sending temperatures back up into the teens and 20s above zero during the afternoon.
JS 18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue at all TAF locations and across the lowlands.
As this disturbance departs Wednesday night, a strong meso-high pressure system develops over the ID/ MT border.
1256 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Arctic high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday.
1111 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Weak low pressure will move from the Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of Florida by Wednesday afternoon. Moisture associated with the low pressure area will remain mainly southeast of the region. A re-enforcing dry cold front will move through the region tonight. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front and temperatures will fall back below normal through the weekend.
There could be a few passing high clouds tonight along with some lake enhanced clouds far northeast, but otherwise skies will be clear with increasing subsidence ahead of an area of high pressure. Winds will shift to the south by Wednesday night, allowing warmer air to start to work in.
419 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 High Pressure will continue to build across the WFO PAH forecast area this evening and overnight, with the maximum cold air advection and thicknesses centered over the northern part of the CWA in the 09z-15z time frame.
This low will continue to dive south and east throughout the day, with the trough axis expected to move out of the forecast area by this evening. As clouds clear from north to south through the night tonight, expect lows to drop 10-15 degrees versus this morning in the lowest elevations.
Arctic high pressure sits over the eastern half of the Northern Plains this afternoon, keeping temperatures cold but allowing plentiful sunshine. A warm front will begin to enter the state later this evening, scouring out the Arctic air and causing temperatures to rise overnight. It will also become breezy overnight in response to deepening low pressure over Manitoba, especially along higher terrain. The westerly component to the low level wind field favors temperatures exceeding guidance, even when taking into account snowpack. Areas along and to the south and west of the Missouri River have either little to no snow or a coating of ice on top from freezing rain within the past several days.
maybe a couple of degrees cooler as an area of high pressure moves to our north.
Dry with seasonable temps over the coming days as high pressure dominates. the upper level trough continues to push south and east of the region, with cool northerly flow in its wake. Northerly winds on the back side of the trough.
323 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 (Issued 315 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure will sink south of Wisconsin into Illinois by Wednesday morning. While it will be colder tonight, the high pressure center will lead to lighter winds. Going into tomorrow, the morning will remain clear and chilly before winds become southwesterly as the high exits east.
High Pressure will continue to build across the WFO PAH forecast area this evening and overnight, with the maximum cold air advection and thicknesses centered over the northern part of the CWA in the 09z-15z time frame.
Strong high pressure system continues to spill into the region from the northwest, bringing steady northerly winds today and keeping temperatures around freezing despite what is becoming a sunny day for portions along and west of I-65 this afternoon. As we get deeper into tomorrow, expect that high pressure to scoot by to our north. Expect readings for most to stay below freezing, save for perhaps our southern KY border counties.
/Issued 242 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022/ Surface observations this afternoon show our forecasted cold front to be just through northern GA. Low temperatures tonight will fall below freezing north of I20 as cold air advection occurs in the wake of the cold front.
With the warm front moving in from the west today and tonight, the low temperature tonight will be realized early this evening, as temperatures are expected to climb throughout the night tonight. In advance of another cold front later on Wednesday night, northwest winds will increase into the 25 G 35 kt range. The higher elevations of Wibaux and N Valley Counties could see amounts around 1 inch.
405 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022 Updated Aviation A dry weather disturbance moving through the area will result in breezy to windy conditions for areas generally along and to the west of the Lower Colorado River Valley this evening through early Wednesday. A warming trend is expected into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds across the western United States. The only sensible weather impact will be an increase in winds this afternoon through tonight along and to the west of the Lower Colorado River Valley as the pressure gradient tightens. High temperatures this afternoon look to top out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees across the lower deserts of south-central Arizona and in the lower 70s along and to the west of the lower Colorado River Valley.
647 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Arctic high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday.
429 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022 Water vapor shows long wave trof over the central/eastern CONUS with northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains. Short wave ridge is folding from the Pac NW through the Northern Rockies, with next upstream clipper diving southeast across northern BC. Winds will gradually turn west to northwest on Wednesday with surface trof moving through ahead of the next approaching cold front.
449 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Latest surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure over the north central CONUS. The center of this high will sink southeastward into Missouri and Illinois by tomorrow morning causing the winds to become light and variable at the same time skies will be mainly clear. There will be a upper trough that will be dropping south toward the area late tomorrow night, but the atmosphere will be dry through a deep layer so will keep the forecast dry.
Lows in the lower to middle 20s still looks on target, with wind chills as low as the lower teens in most valley areas, and single digits atop the higher Cumberland Plateau elevations.
A cold, Canadian high pressure will slide southeast across the area through this evening. Significantly warmer air will move into the area on Wednesday with 925 mb temps reaching above 0C for much of the CWA by 21Z. A cold front moving into the CWA Wednesday night could bring light snow. The period opens with weak low pressure moving through central SD.
118 PM PST Tue Jan 25 2022 Blocking high pressure will likely maintain dry conditions through the end of January.
850 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Satellite imagery continues to show cloud cover in association to a cold front that passed through the area today exit the region to the south. Satellite imagery this evening as of 25/23z is showing some lingering cloud cover in association with the passing cold front across our far southern zones of deep east Texas and central Louisiana. It will be colder to start with lows in the mid 20s north and just below freezing in our far south.
This suggests the potential for freezing fog onto elevated surfaces but not on the roadways, for the time being. Mention of freezing fog will be added to the overnight forecast across the higher elevations of Pike, Letcher, and Harlan counties. As with this morning's update, still not thinking about areas of icy roadways due to the warmer ground temperatures with these lingering areas of drizzle. Temperatures won't recover much through the day Wednesday and overnight lows for Wednesday are even colder due to lack of cloud cover and reinforced northwest flow courtesy of a the longwave trough the CWA has been mired in for the last couple days.
Satellite imagery this evening as of 25/23z is showing some lingering cloud cover in association with the passing cold front across our far southern zones of deep east Texas and central Louisiana. It will be colder to start with lows in the mid 20s north and just below freezing in our far south.
The ridge of high pressure is still the dominating feature over the West Coast as dry and stagnant condition will persist through the end of the week. Latest ensemble runs showing very good agreement with current state of the atmosphere as ridge dominates the West. For now, ensembles are showing high confidence in maintaining the blocking high over the West. While weak pieces of energy will ride over the ridge, they are only expected to maintain the northerly wind component as a lack of additional moisture will not introduce any chances of precipitation. Probabilistic (Cluster and Predictability) model analysis both show strong signals toward keeping the ridge over the West Coast through the weekend and slowly shifting it of California during the weekend.
An upper ridge of high pressure will be in control through the rest of the week.
Boxell (Issued 315 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure will sink south of Wisconsin into Illinois by Wednesday morning. While it will be colder tonight, the high pressure center will lead to lighter winds. Going into tomorrow, the morning will remain clear and chilly before winds become southwesterly as the high exits east.
Deep cyclonic flow persists over much of the nation to the east of ridging along the West Coast. In the low levels, the glancing blow of arctic air we are getting currently begins modifying Wednesday night as low level winds gain a southerly component. Model soundings show above freezing temps and a dry sub- cloud layer from 850mb downward. Accumulations are likely to be a dusting at best, and with surface temps near or just above freezing, travel impacts are not expected.
Dry with seasonable temperatures over the coming days as high pressure dominates. the upper level trough continues to push south and east of the region, with cool northerly flow in its wake. Northerly winds on the back side of the trough.
For temps, as precipitation wanes and skies begin to thin out, the combination of the area snowpack, some clearing and decent caa, the Tri State area will se overnight lows range from the upper single numbers above zero to the lower teens in spots. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs currently expected to reach the 30s.
No changes were needed for the eve update as weak cold advection continues under upper troughing. Wind Chill Advisory for the higher elevations of ern Tucker Co.
728 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022 Stratus has shot up through the Snake River Plain rapidly and issued update to expand cloud cover and patchy freezing fog overnight. Low stratus and patchy, freezing fog expected to redevelop tonight and linger into the morning hours across portions of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
543 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 A strong area of high pressure at the surface will move east of the area overnight, which will allow south to southwest flow to develop. A nice nose of warmer air will build into the area on Wednesday and bring mild and windy conditions.
The high wind threat looks marginal at this point, but decided to upgrade the High Wind Watch for ARL to a Warning. Any elevated to high winds on Wednesday will luckily be short lived due to a cold front dropping in from the north.
A high amplitude trough axis extending from this low will traverse Lower Mi tonight. This trough will mainly work with the available moisture flux off the lakes, supporting some enhanced lake effect potential late this afternoon and tonight. The low level flow has already backing toward the west across srn Lake Mi. There is general agreement among the high res solutions that the flow will be weak enough to allow the development of a meso scale vortex over the lake, forecast to ripple southward late tonight/Wed morning. Expansive mid level ridging/subsidence on Wednesday will ensure quiet but cold conditions as highs will likely remain stuck in the teens.
A widespread cold pattern continues with a longwave upper level trough across the central and eastern states. On the surface map, a 1036mb high pressure system was centered over North Dakota.
Weak cold advection continues under upper troughing and patches of stratocumulus are anticipated, albeit not quite as extensive as previous. Wind Chill Advisory for the higher elevations of ern Tucker Co.
Satellite shows a large area of low stratus and dense freezing fog extending from the eastern Magic Valley up the Snake Plain. Will issue a freezing fog advisory for this morning as expect visibilities to be less than a half a mile or lower this morning. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will pass through the region this afternoon. Expect low stratus and fog to quickly redevelop this evening with models showing the highest chances beginning around INL/Arco and expanding southward through Wednesday night. Areas that don't see the low stratus will see very cold temps with single digits and subzero temps possible. High pressure will be in control for Thursday with the only real question being when/if we can mix out the low stratus and fog from the night before.
Dry high pressure continues through Thursday with periods of offshore winds.
A 1038 mb high pressure center has continued to move southeast into the central plains, bringing very cold temperatures into the Midwest. Some of this arctic air has filtered into Kansas as temperatures across the area have finally made it into the low to mid 20s. Overnight tonight, temperatures will fall back into the low teens and upper single digits. Another cold front will pass through northeast Kansas late Thursday morning and early afternoon with most ensemble guidance keeping the passage dry with limited moisture in place. Timing and location of the upper low still remains uncertain this far out and will change within the upcoming week.
Windy and warmer Wednesday with some light snow. Cold high pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas this afternoon, to southeast Iowa late tonight. Some light snow or flurries are expected to develop along the Borderland from late morning into the afternoon as a cold front approaches from south central Canada. A second cold front moves through the Northland Wednesday night ushering back in the well below normal temps.
251 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Cold air remains around the area between now and the weekend with only a slight warm up on Thursday ahead of a cold front.
There is potential for a dusting of snow, but with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s, impacts are not expected even with the higher end of guidance.
Locally, winds have picked up a notch with a tightening pressure gradient between the gulf low and high pressure just northeast of the Bahamas. Conditions have moderated considerably since the very cool morning, with temperatures remaining in the lower to mid 70s and dew points all the way up into the mid 60s. Short Term Update - Guidance has been reasonably steady in indicating the upper troughing in the gulf will flatten and lift out some. At the same time, expansive surface ridging will continue to expand over the eastern United States. As a result, the surface gulf low/trough will gradually weaken and shift southeastwards nearer the island chain. Convection associated with this low has tended to weaken substantially before making it into our northwestern and western waters.
1206 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Low pressure will pass well south of the area tonight as cold high pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.
This low will continue to dive south and east throughout the day, with the trough axis expected to move out of the forecast area by this evening. As clouds clear from north to south through the night tonight, expect lows to drop 10-15 degrees versus this morning in the lowest elevations. The current pattern hinges on a longwave trough extending from Ontario, Canada southwestward to the 4 corners along with a highly amplified Pacific ridge of high pressure centered over the west coast. Much like today's passing wave, the next system will pass through the southward flow on the eastern perimeter of the Pacific ridge just glancing the high terrain of our CWA's eastern border. However, do expect some light accumulations in the higher terrain of the central Mountains.
Main concern for today will be potential for fire danger as dry air advects into the area behind yesterday's cold front.
/issued 850 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022/ Satellite imagery continues to show cloud cover in association to a cold front that passed through the area today exit the region to the south.
The upper ridge will give way to a more active weather pattern around the end of the week.
Northwest flow continues to reinforce cold advection as high pressure shifts southward this evening across the Midwest into the OH Valley. Moisture in the low levels pooled on the windward side of the Appalachians continues to favor low stratus in the valley/foothills, which should sct out through mid morning. VFR through the period at all sites as high pressure continues to build into the region from the north. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 43 25 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 39 22 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 24 39 22 47 31 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 36 18 44 29 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Just made some minor adjustments for tonight as some patchy fog has developed ahead of the actual cold front lagging back over Mississippi. Highs Wednesday will likely be in the low to mid 50s and then increasing to the low to mid 60s by Thursday.