Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Short wave trof is exiting east of IL late this morning and an associated weak frontal boundary near I-70 will sweep through southeast IL during midday. 07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front advancing eastward toward the I-57 corridor. Further west, a cooler/drier airmass will arrive across central Illinois, with dewpoints dropping into the middle to upper 50s nearly everywhere by mid afternoon. Yet another wave will dive southeastward around the prevailing upper trough over Ontario/Quebec on Monday.
1027 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Numerous to widespread showers this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is currently moving into Middle Tennessee as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 66 87 63 / 90 50 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 65 84 62 / 90 50 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 77 65 85 61 / 90 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 62 82 58 / 80 50 10 10.
A squall moved through the lower Keys this morning with gusts near 35 knots. The mid level cloud deck associated with the low near the Yucatan is encroaching on the lower Keys, but clear skies from Marathon eastward. Much depends on the evolution of the low in the western Caribbean/ Yucatan Peninsula. However, in the short term, for this afternoon and this evening, there is good agreement on winds increasing through the day and approaching near 20 knots by this evening, mainly from the lower Keys westward.
A small upper level low embedded in the larger ridge flow continues to slowly move towards the area. The dynamics in the low produced lightning overnight and that convection is just approaching the southwest CWA border. This path puts it into the longwave ridge axis, and brings increased heat/moisture and therefore chances for showers and thunderstorms to our CWA. As the low draws closer tomorrow, most of the CWA has at least a slight chance Monday afternoon.
A high pressure ridge will remain over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will remain quite dry.
1001 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Cold front pushes through today with more showers and thunderstorms.
1112 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An approaching cold front will stall near the forecast area Monday.
1017 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Aviation section updated Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through the short term period as several waves rotate around a parent upper low over Ontario/Quebec.
1028 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 High pressure centered over the southern High Plains will provide a mild, dry, and sunny day across Oklahoma and north Texas today through tonight. /issued 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Patchy fog will be seen across south-central and southeast Oklahoma early this morning ahead of slow moving and very weak cold front.
1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front remains located across Northeast Mississippi this morning. but most locations were still in the low and mid 70s. moisture throughout the column will slowly push southeast today as current upper trough axis pushes into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Closer to the surface a weaker refection of the upper trough will also push across the area. Highs today will drop into the low and mid 80s.
Deep tropical moisture will be pulled up on its east side with the highest precipitable water values (~2. MOS and model blend PoPs, which were 40-50 percent, look reasonable for lingering evening convection and overnight showers in increasing moist southerly low level flow associated with the approaching cyclone.
Low pressure area over the central valley this morning with some showers lingering across parts of Shasta County. Temperatures running cooler this morning and will warm into the mid to upper 90s for most valley locations today with only the well inland areas reaching 100 degrees. As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than what happened overnight and will happen later today.
A large upper level low center will shift from the northern Great Lakes to the southern tip of Hudson's Bay today/tonight with and upper level northwest flow in place over our region. High pressure aloft will continue to approach the region from the west today.
533 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 The northern portion of the full latitude upper trough over the Mississippi Valley region rotates through the northeastern U. by this evening while the main upper low center moves north of the Great Lakes region. The weak low center over the Gulf coast region of Texas remains as a weaker elongated trough along the Gulf Coast. As these features of the high amplitude pattern over the U. move slowly eastward, the upper ridge axis over the western U. The smaller upper low center over northern California attempts to cut through the upper upper ridge, making it as far as northeast Nevada by late Monday.
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front advancing eastward toward the I-57 corridor. Further west, a cooler/drier airmass will arrive across central Illinois, with dewpoints dropping into the middle to upper 50s nearly everywhere by mid afternoon. Yet another wave will dive southeastward around the prevailing upper trough over Ontario/Quebec on Monday.
/issued 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Upper low pressure area that has been producing the persistent rainfall across the area is currently near the upper Texas coast. GPS-MET/Satellite derived TPW products indicate drier profile moving north through the central gulf as the low appears to be loosing its identity. Forecast still seems to be on track as trof remains over the area for the next few days as the upper low shears out.
Hourly temperatures are trending slightly cooler than the previous forecast suggested, so high temperatures were lowered only a degree this afternoon and hourly temps were adjusted to align with the most recent observations.
Clouds should be exiting our eastern counties this morning once mid lvl trof slides east of the region by around noon. Rest of the day looks to bring plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures as mild high pressure works in from the west. The high will stay in control through Monday, with temperatures moderating up into the mid 80s during the afternoon. Front will be moisture starved in the lower levels, but mid level ascent forced by an approaching short wave may result in isolated showers/possibly a rumble or two of thunder Monday night as the front passes.
905 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms today as a cold front moves through the region. A mid level trough will be the dominant feature during this period.
An upper ridge will begin to shift eastward with onshore surface flow developing tonight and Monday.
749 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
1121 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region by early tonight. Appears will be a break in showers for much of the afternoon once late morning showers exit, as cold front is now into north central Indiana. have lowered POPs through much of the afternoon except for the southeast ridges. A mid level trough will be the dominant feature during this period.
/issued 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Patchy fog will be seen across south-central and southeast Oklahoma early this morning ahead of slow moving and very weak cold front.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to bring very hot temperatures through Monday. A couple of more days of very hot temperatures can be anticipated today and Monday as high pressure aloft remains in place.
High pressure aloft squarely over Utah will maintain the unseasonably warm and dry conditions today. A weak upper low will move slowly through the high pressure early in the week, followed by a return of strong high pressure aloft midweek. Amplified mid level ridging continues to build over the eastern Great Basin today, aided by the approach of a closed low centered over NorCal attm. H7 temps will continue a warming trend over the next 24 hours as the mean ridge position slowly shifts east across the state, with peak values settling into the +15 to +18 range through Monday (from north to south respectively).
1121 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Weakening upper level trough looks more like a shear zone this morning with more clouds than bite. /issued 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Upper low pressure area that has been producing the persistent rainfall across the area is currently near the upper Texas coast. GPS-MET/Satellite derived TPW products indicate drier profile moving north through the central gulf as the low appears to be loosing its identity. Forecast still seems to be on track as trof remains over the area for the next few days as the upper low shears out.
(Issued 228 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016) At 230 am cdfnt/upper trof extended from the Great Lakes thru sern MO and into central TX. Radars were showing sct shra and a few tsra across portions of AL and mid/ern TN, ahead of the cdfnt/trof. Today, the above mentioned cdfnt/trof will slowly push across the cwa today and is progged to be out of the TN valley by 06z tonight. Ahead of this cdfnt/trof there will be the chc of more sct shra/tsra across the cwa. Tonight, with loss of daytime heating and the cdfnt/trof continuing to push E of the TN Valley, will continue to taper off pops.
Otherwise, another warmer than normal but mild day is in store for the area. Templer Previous discussion: Upper ridge remains in place over the northern Rockies while an upper low develops over eastern Canada. Canadian high pressure slides into the Northern Plains on Monday with a slight drop in temperatures.
All precipitation today/tonight will remain well south of the region, closer to the upper low currently near the Texas coast. /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ An upper level ridge currently over the Desert Southwest will provide dry weather across North and Central Texas this week as it develops east across the central U. For today, an elongated trough which stretches roughly from the Texas Coast to Memphis, TN may provide enough lift across the southeast zones to produce occasional showers today. Any showers which form in this area will move southwest around the northern edge of the Gulf Coast trough. Temperatures will be plenty warm today and for the rest of the week for that matter as the upper ridge builds overhead and sunny days transpire.
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An upper level trough will swing across the Ohio Valley today, pushing a cold front with it.
1236 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Warm and windy conditions today will give way to increasing rain chances tonight as a cold front moves over the region.
941 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Current temps range from the low to upper 70s due to a bkn to ovc cloud cover this morning. As the high pressure continues to build across the region today and cloud cover decreases, temps will rise into the upper 80s. The high temp for today is normally 74 degrees at both KHSV and KMSL. The record could be met or broken at KHSV as the record is 88 (1926) while KMSL is a little warmer at 91 (1915). Moisture transport in the low levels remains rather persistent across the lower MS valley into the central and lower TN valley tonight into Wednesday.
Late in the week a cold front will sweep across the waters shifting winds to northwest and then northerly.
Upper ridging will remain in place today with continued strong southerly low level flow keeping dewpoints unseasonably high near 70 degrees. Late day convection along an approaching cold front will bring increased clouds to the northwest counties tonight.
A weak back door cold front will continue southbound across the eastern plains through 15Z, shifting winds to the north and ne behind it. A cold front this morning will provide some cooling across the east.
Cooler air arrives today. Overview: Broad troughiness is in place from the west coast through the Great Lakes with a pronounced temperature gradient and attending strong upper jet streak cutting across the CONUS. Today: Cold front and trailing batch of showers will cross the region this morning. After that, cooler and drier air will overspread the region through the afternoon, although upstream satellite/obs data and model RH forecasts suggest lower cloud cover will hang around through a good chunk of the day, particularly in eastern upper Michigan. Much cooler with lows solidly in the 40s, although still a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid October. For the day, it looks like high pressure over the warm sector begins to move out of the region, and the cold front moves through.
Cold front still expected to stall over far southeast portions of CWA this afternoon. /For the 12z TAFs/ A cold front will have moved through all terminals by mid morning. /issued 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/ Brief Weather Overview: Cooler temperatures are expected today across much of the area with the exception being across southern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas.
Still a lot of dry, subsident air in the mid and upper levels due to a ridge centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The region remains under a deep ridge this morning, however with enough heat and instability this afternoon a few showers will be possible. The ridge will shift east and weaken Wednesday as a trough digs into the plains.
Model guidances have shown to be too pessimistic with the lower conditions at the I-35 TAF sites, especially in the later periods. Subtropical Ridge eases off to the east as an upper level trough moves from the Great Basin to the High Plains. Isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible along the Highway 77 corridor due slightly deeper moisture there on Wednesday.
647 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016 A cold front was located from northern Missouri to southeast Kansas, to west-central oklahoma early this morning.
Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is on tap with high pressure over the SE U. A cold front will approach our far NW counties by 00z. But some of the higher res guidance shows isolated activity could continue down through the middle of the area.
1032 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Another warm/rain-free day on tap as the upper high lingers over the area. /ISSUED 457 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ Upper ridging planted over the state will provide continued dry (precipitation-wise) and very warm conditions for southeastern Texas today.
Meanwhile, the upper level trough over the area will lift northeastward with the jet stream this morning.
Mean layer analyses from CIMSS indicate deep layered ridging across North Florida and the Southeastern United States. A squashed and broad area of high pressure centered north of Bermuda stretches west into the Southeastern United States. Temperatures should reach the lower 80s near the coast this afternoon, with upper 80s inland. From synopsis: A broad area of high pressure will reach from the western North Atlantic into the Southeastern United States this afternoon through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure currently northeast of the Turks and Caicos is expected to slowly intensify as it moves northward.
Cooler and Less Windy but Still Local Red Flag Conditions. The cold front that moved through overnight has definitely helped the fire situation. Just dry elsewhere overnight with cooler air filtering into the region.
/For the 12z TAFs/ A cold front will have moved through all terminals by mid morning. /issued 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/ Brief Weather Overview: Cooler temperatures are expected today across much of the area with the exception being across southern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas.
941 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A warm front will lift northeast toward the area today followed by a cold front tonight.
Aside from I-20 E TX sites with a zero, most sites are running 1 to 3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. A few more degrees of SW direction would easily swing warmer numbers, but that little grab off of the Gulf will keep us in check. /issued 317 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ Upper level ridge continues to remain in firm control over our region's weather this morning, and our max temps the last couple of days have really reflected this.
One last storm system will cross northern Utah and southwest Wyoming today before high pressure returns for the latter half of the week. This system will cross northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon through this evening, bringing a final round of precip and a reinforcing shot of cooler air. High pressure is on track to move in behind the exiting storm system for Wednesday, remaining in place for the rest of the week. The ridge will keep dry conditions in place with a gradual warming trend in temperatures through the weekend. Southerly winds will prevail at the SLC terminal through about 19Z then switch to northwesterly with a cold front.
Pacific trough passing directly through our CWA this morning with widespread light to moderate pcpn. Latest NAM and GFS bring the trough through in two parts which matches satellite imagery well. Scattered showers have developed across the region in advance of an upper trough approaching the Oregon coast early this morning. Wednesday is dry and mostly clear as an upper ridge builds over the Pac NW. High temperatures will warm 4-8 degrees across southeast Oregon and the southwest ID mountains and 2-4 degrees in the lower valleys.
1214 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A warm front will lift northeast toward the area today followed by a cold front tonight.
/issued 359 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/ The cold front continues to make good southward progress this morning and was located along a Muleshoe, Plainview, to Paducah line as of 330 am CDT. This should result in a pleasant day across the area with highs generally 15 degrees cooler than we saw yesterday. Southerly flow across the western South Plains should keep the normal areas from cratering as well but would not be surprised to see a few areas approach the upper 30s to lower 40s in some of the low-lying/cold air drainage areas. Jordan Dry cyclonic flow kicks off the extended realm before buckling back to upper ridging complete with above normal warmth for the weekend.
A weak cold front will affect the KABI terminal this morning, with light north winds through afternoon. /issued 415 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a weak cold front stretched across the southern Texas panhandle and extended east across southwest Oklahoma. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front today, with highs topping out in the mid and upper 80s across the Big Country. Temperatures south of the front will be very warm again today, with highs in the lower 90s.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 70s along and east of the Highway 65 corridor to the middle 70s across far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A cold frontal boundary is expected to drop into our region later today/overnight before stalling close to the I44 corridor as flow aloft becomes parallel. A low pressure will develop along the front out ahead of a short wave trough that should begin to amplify over Kansas.
/issued 317 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ Upper level ridge continues to remain in firm control over our region's weather this morning, and our max temps the last couple of days have really reflected this.
728 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 VFR conditions prevail through most of the day across South Florida as high pressure builds over the region.
TFJ Broad upper trough will remain over Montana today and Wednesday with weak upper level disturbances.
731 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Warm and windy conditions today will give way to increasing rain chances tonight as a cold front moves over the region. In addition, the latest model soundings indicate deep enough, and early enough mixing to up wind gusts a bit under todays crossing low level jet on the flank of Great Lakes low pressure. Otherwise, warm weather will continue through Wednesday despite the encroachment of a cold front.
925 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 An upper-level ridge will build across the area through Wednesday.
628 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Green Bay Wisconsin to Des Moines Iowa.
Meanwhile aloft a sprawling mid level ridge was centered over central Louisiana this morning. An upper ridge will expand over the area and surface temperatures are forecast to reach record values today in most locations.
Cold front was entering northeast OK and will stall across the region today. /Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ Cold front was located near a line from KEMP-KPNC-KHBR per 08z sfc obs, with weakening pressure rises to the north over the past few hours. Overall progress of frontal boundary should remain limited over the next 48 hours, the net result today being high temps several degrees cooler across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, while areas to the south will once again see much above normal temperatures.
Light rain mixed with snow for the higher elevations will occur across the northern mountain ranges, and as far south as the Ruby mountains. High pressure brings drier and warmer weather beginning on Wednesday.
The upper level trough will remain over the region today but with a ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. The ridge will arrive overnight bringing back mostly clear skies but also allow for cooler overnight low temperatures.
/Issued 226 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/ The cold front moved through the panhandles overnight will knock highs down by about 20 degrees from yesterday's readings. Then another cold front will move through the region on Wednesday.
633 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had an elongated area of high pressure extending from Baja California east northeast into the southeastern CONUS. North of this high pressure, a broad area of low amplitude flow extended from California east into the central plains, then northeast into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended from the Texas panhandle northeast into far northwestern Missouri and central Iowa. For today: Much drier boundary layer air will be present across the region today as the before mentioned cold front continues to push south into the mid Mississippi valley.
A warming and drying trend is forecast for the second half of the week as high pressure builds over the region. Previous forecast remains on track with the idea of switching gears from the active weather to dry and warmer conditions. Morning temps in the Bay area and along the coast are in the low to mid 50s with mostly clear skies and light winds.
1017 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Dry high pressure will build across the area through the middle of the week.
/issued 728 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ VFR conditions prevail through most of the day across South Florida as high pressure builds over the region. /issued 519 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ High pressure over the Southeastern United states will remain nearly stationary today into Wednesday, as a disturbance remains nearly stationary east of the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is forecast by the medium and long range models to move the north or north-northwest slowly late this week through the western Atlantic waters, before moving northeast this weekend through the mid Atlantic Waters ahead of a cold front. The disturbance will remain well east of South Florida this week, and the only weather impacts will be some breezy northerly winds due to the pressure gradient between the high to the north and the disturbance well east of South Florida.
Westerly winds in wake of cold front will bring drier air into the area. With surface ridging building across tonight into Wednesday expect a lighter wind regime with VFR conditions. Westerly winds will continue to diminish today as high pressure builds in. Low levels moisten after the cold front. Therefore, expect a dry cold frontal passage with possible sprinkles mainly north areas this morning, behind the front.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate across the region today.
1141 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 An upper-level ridge will build across the area through Wednesday.