Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall, it will continue to be well above normal, but likely not as hot as Friday, with highs in the low to mid 80s expected.
526 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High pressure centered over Northern Virginia this morning will drift southeast and off the Delmarva Coast this afternoon.
High pressure moving off the mid Atlantic coast and Hurricane Delta moving north toward the LA coast over the western Gulf will support southeast to south winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 4 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
642 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a small upper low along the Kansas/Oklahoma border that is moving east early this morning. Latest runs of the HREF/RAP are showing that this low will slowly move east across southern Missouri today. Will continue with a slight chance of showers over a small part of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois late morning into afternoon as Delta moves north into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Britt Latest runs of the EPS/GEFS means are in relatively good agreement in showing an upper ridge over the Upper Midwest on Saturday evening at the same time that Delta will be over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
530 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High clouds will continue to sweep across the region today ahead of a low amplitude trough over the Great Basin. Despite cloud cover, expect warmer than normal temperatures to continue. A split mid-level trough moves ashore overnight and mid and high clouds are expected to continue to stream overhead ahead of the system. Clouds will continue to sweep over the area as the West Coast trough, mentioned previously, pushes over the northern Rockies and western Great Basin on Saturday. A closed low over southern California split off from the main trough will help feed high clouds across the region, but otherwise will have little impact. Flow aloft ahead of the the northern stream of the trough increases and deep mixing is expected to bring gusty southwest winds to the area Saturday, especially across northwest Colorado.
Texas counties sneaking back into the low 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows across the board will stay in the low to mid 60s.
535 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Breezy and very warm conditions will be the rule across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s. As a large ridge of high pressure extending from Ontario into the Mid-Atlantic states shifts eastward, winds will veer to the southwest and increase across central Illinois today. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, generally in the lower to middle 80s.
Today through Saturday: A cold front will approach from the west today as high pressure retreats to our east. The afforementioned cold front will sink southward over southern Wisconsin overnight Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in behind the front on Saturday with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures in the 60s and low 70s due to northerly winds.
Deep southerly flow will develop for Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures back to NE WY and far western SD.
Because of this, have gone ahead and put in slight chance POPs across the aforementioned areas through the rest of the morning until the higher POPs this afternoon. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 65 76 68 77 / 40 60 60 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 64 74 65 77 / 10 60 70 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 78 63 73 64 76 / 10 70 70 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 60 70 62 73 / 10 60 70 60 70.
Otherwise, increasing southerly flow across the area in advance of low pressure hugging the US/Canadian border and cold front across the Northern Plains was keeping temperatures fairly mild. Warm air advection on gusty southwest winds ahead of advancing cold front from the Northern Plains will push 925mb temperatures into the 23-26C range by later this afternoon. That cold front comes through dry tonight as we maintain a very stout cap. Saturday is looking cooler and mostly sunny as high pressure drifts across the region.
409 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High clouds will continue to sweep across the region today ahead of a low amplitude trough over the Great Basin. Despite cloud cover, expect warmer than normal temperatures to continue. A split mid-level trough moves ashore overnight and mid and high clouds are expected to continue to stream overhead ahead of the system. Clouds will continue to sweep over the area as the West Coast trough, mentioned previously, pushes over the northern Rockies and western Great Basin on Saturday. A closed low over southern California split off from the main trough will help feed high clouds across the region, but otherwise will have little impact. Flow aloft ahead of the the northern stream of the trough increases and deep mixing is expected to bring gusty southwest winds to the area Saturday, especially across northwest Colorado.
Lee troughing leading to stronger low-level wind fields than recent days with temps still in the 60s in most locations. A weak wave in the northern branch brings a modified cold front southeast into central Nebraska late today and settles into Kansas late tonight.
/issued 332 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020/ Upper ridge centered near Baja this morning extends up across the SW US as Hurricane Delta moves toward the Upper TX/LA coast. As Delta moves ashore and starts heading NE the ridge will build eastward across TX. At the same time a cut off low will come ashore the Srn CA Coast as a trough moves into WA.
337 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Overview: Ridging aloft will prevail over the Central High Plains through Saturday. as Tropical Cyclone Delta moves ashore the Louisiana Gulf Coast and tracks slowly northward into the Lower MS River Valley. With ridging aloft over the region, above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist.
403 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a small upper low along the Kansas/Oklahoma border that is moving east early this morning. Latest runs of the HREF/RAP are showing that this low will slowly move east across southern Missouri today. Will continue with a slight chance of showers over a small part of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois late morning into afternoon as Delta moves north into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Britt Latest runs of the EPS/GEFS means are in relatively good agreement in showing an upper ridge over the Upper Midwest on Saturday evening at the same time that Delta will be over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
All of these factors combined should help boost temperatures 5-10 warmer than what was experienced yesterday for locations on the Caprock placing daily high temperature records in jeopardy. For locations off of the Caprock, today will be very similar to yesterday with high temperatures only a degree or two warmer. /WCI An upper level high pressure ridge will remain atop the southern high plains Saturday.
Saturday will be wet, windy, cooler followed be a small threat of afternoon thunderstorms in the afternoon.
As winds diminish with the approaching trough. While temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler across the area Saturday, they will still remain well above normal, with most locations topping out in the 80s, or about 15 degrees above seasonal norms.
A cold front will bring widespread rain and mountain snow on Saturday.
Clear skies along with ridge axis traversing the area overnight will allow temps to all in the 30s for tomorrow mornings low. By afternoon temps will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s with SE winds developing on the back side of the ridge axis.
West southwest flow aloft strengthens, helping the surface lee side trough to strengthen and boosting our south and southwest winds. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will help the low level gradients to strengthen as well, and provide enough low level mixing to produce another relatively mild overnight period.
342 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 The forecast area remains under the western Atlantic upper ridge and on the eastern fringes of the influence of Delta. Delta is expected to move into the Lower MS River Valley tonight and Saturday. Models indicate that we will remain in an east to southeast flow of moist tropical air as a warm front struggles to move from southern GA into central GA during the day Saturday.
121 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2020 No significant weather tonight with 500 mb ridge dominant over the region. Saturday will see increasing mixed southwest winds ahead of a Pacific NW trof moving ashore.
A cold front will move through Saturday afternoon into the evening bringing widespread showers, high-elevation mountain snow, moderate to strong winds, and much cooler temperatures.
338 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 The afternoon surface analysis show high pressure off the east along the coast centered around the border of Virginia and North Carolina. Given the higher Flash Flood Guidance due to the recent stretch of dry weather would think we will be able to handle this and only a marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been put into place across the Cumberland Valley from WPC. Given this have added rain showers to most of the TAFs and lowering into the lower end MVFR range through Saturday morning.
The cyclone is expected to turn a bit toward the NNE over the next few hours, making landfall across eastern Cameron Parish near Rutherford Beach late this afternoon or early evening.
1132 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High clouds will continue to sweep across the region today ahead of a low amplitude trough over the Great Basin. Despite cloud cover, expect warmer than normal temperatures to continue. A split mid-level trough moves ashore overnight and mid and high clouds are expected to continue to stream overhead ahead of the system. Clouds will continue to sweep over the area as the West Coast trough, mentioned previously, pushes over the northern Rockies and western Great Basin on Saturday. A closed low over southern California split off from the main trough will help feed high clouds across the region, but otherwise will have little impact. Flow aloft ahead of the the northern stream of the trough increases and deep mixing is expected to bring gusty southwest winds to the area Saturday, especially across northwest Colorado.
1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a small upper low along the Kansas/Oklahoma border that is moving east early this morning. Latest runs of the HREF/RAP are showing that this low will slowly move east across southern Missouri today. Will continue with a slight chance of showers over a small part of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois late morning into afternoon as Delta moves north into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Britt Latest runs of the EPS/GEFS means are in relatively good agreement in showing an upper ridge over the Upper Midwest on Saturday evening at the same time that Delta will be over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Breezy and warm conditions will be the rule across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s.
131 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A low pressure system off the coast of California will continue to move southeastward, bring cooler weather to the region through the weekend.
245 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A cool front will spill into the area tonight and bring cooler air for Saturday. High pressure will gradually shift east on Saturday with mild temperatures and increasing winds.
Upper ridging will guide continued dry but warmer temperatures into NE Montana for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
1054 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Breezy and warm conditions will be the rule across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s.
214 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 The combination of high pressure sitting along the southeast seaboard, and Hurricane Delta in the northwestern Gulf approaching Louisiana, has resulted in slightly higher than expected winds along the Keys coastal waters through this afternoon. As Delta progresses inland, and the ridge along the coast slides eastward over the western Atlantic, the gradient over the area will slacken significantly. Into Saturday night, the area will be under the influence of the ridge sitting off the Atlantic coast, with no definable ridge axis protruding into the area.
As a weak surface cold front slips through the area on Saturday, 850 moisture lingering under the weakening cap (but also weakening lapse rates) may be just enough to touch off weak convection during the afternoon in southern to southeast Michigan.
931 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A low pressure system off the coast of California will continue to move southeastward, bring cooler weather to the region through the weekend.
looks like a decent set-up for additional low clouds/fog tonight as broad surface ridging conditions prevail and ribbon of low-level moisture remains across much of central in eastern OK.
This beautiful weather will continue into this evening as a weak cold front moves through our area and our cooler temperatures return. Up near the international border, cloud cover is expected to increase tonight as a low pressure to the north moves through tonight, and should clear in the late morning Saturday as a high moves in behind the low. Saturday should be cool and dry with the high still over the upper Midwest.
448 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 The forecast remains dominated by the persistent ridging pattern reaching from the Pacific Northwest into South Texas. Upper ridging will hold firm over the region tomorrow as what remains of Delta accelerates through the southern Mississippi River Valley. Weak surface ridging wrapping around the back side of Delta will result in easterly flow for most spots off the Caprock by Saturday afternoon. On the Caprock light downslope winds, full insolation and deep mixing within a dry troposphere will cause temperatures to soar into the lower and middle 90s.
Rainfall amounts between 3 and 6 inches have already fallen across SW LA and SE TX, and a broad swath of 6 to 10 inch rainfall totals are expected through tonight along and generally just N/NW of the center track from SW to Central LA, with amounts decreasing to 1 to 2 inches across the lower atchafalaya to the east and to the west across interior SE TX.
/issued 448 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020/ The forecast remains dominated by the persistent ridging pattern reaching from the Pacific Northwest into South Texas. Upper ridging will hold firm over the region tomorrow as what remains of Delta accelerates through the southern Mississippi River Valley. Weak surface ridging wrapping around the back side of Delta will result in easterly flow for most spots off the Caprock by Saturday afternoon. On the Caprock light downslope winds, full insolation and deep mixing within a dry troposphere will cause temperatures to soar into the lower and middle 90s.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 76 68 76 66 / 70 60 80 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 74 65 77 66 / 70 70 60 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 63 73 65 76 65 / 70 70 70 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 70 63 75 63 / 60 70 60 70 60.
High pressure building in over Deep South Texas will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast period, with light and variable winds expected overnight tonight.
640 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 The return of shallow low level moisture will remain in place tonight ahead of a surface trof which will sag southeastward into central Kansas.
The highest rain totals have been over our far E/SE counties. but don't be too surprised if a few sites hit the lower 90s.
Band of moisture across NE to Cape Canaveral lies juxtaposed to a swath of much drier air lifting over the northern Bahamas towards the Treasure Coast and a much broader area of drying associated with the Atlantic ridge drifting eastward off the Carolina/Virginia coastline. No other noteworthy changes made, with nighttime lows in the low/mid 70s, upper 70s at the coast.
203 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Dry weather and much cooler through continues with some light precipitation possible tomorrow, mainly over the mountains and north end of the Valley.
Cold front is moving into the Pacific northwest this evening. Much cooler as compared to the past few days.
316 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A ridge axis is currently overhead and is expected to pass by this evening, which will lead to a more southwesterly flow regime in the upper levels for tomorrow afternoon. Relative humidity values are expected to be below 15% across all of the lower elevations, but the strongest winds are expected over the aforementioned counties. The enhanced wind speeds are from tightening surface pressure from the interactions from what will be Tropical Storm or Depression Delta, a surface lee cyclone, and two synoptic systems to the north.
Vertz No significant weather tonight with 500 mb ridge dominant over the region. Saturday will see increasing mixed southwest winds ahead of a Pacific NW trof moving ashore.
The lower level flow is out of the southeast, tapping into a more moisture rich source. Short Term Update - Ridging to our northeast will maintain control across Keys weather through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. A high pressure system off the mid Atlantic coast will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across Keys waters through the overnight.
As skies clear and high pressure moves in expect many locations to be near or below freezing in our north or traditionally colder spots in MN. Clear skies along with ridge axis traversing the area overnight will allow temps to all in the 30s for tomorrow mornings low. By afternoon temps will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s with SE winds developing on the back side of the ridge axis.
624 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Clouds will increase from the south through Saturday as the remnants of Hurricane Delta tracks into the lower Mississippi river valley.
The best alignment of higher CAPE and shear looks likely to occur during the morning and afternoon hours stretching from southeastern MS and along the highway 84 corridor, and this will be the area of greatest interest for isolated tornadoes. Temperature forecast remains on track with lows in the lower to middle 70's throughout tonight, rising some Saturday afternoon into the upper 70's and lower 80's.
Temperatures haven't dropped too much yet, but with clearing skies and decreasing winds expectation is still there for near or below freezing temps, with Td values already in the 30s for many locations. As skies clear and high pressure moves in expect many locations to be near or below freezing in our north or traditionally colder spots in MN. Clear skies along with ridge axis traversing the area overnight will allow temps to all in the 30s for tomorrow mornings low. By afternoon temps will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s with SE winds developing on the back side of the ridge axis.
657 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 The synoptic pattern remained relatively low amplitude with Hurricane Delta and a closed low off the the coast of CA the exceptions per the 20Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, a low pressure system was moving east across Ontario with a trailing frontal boundary extending through the Dakotas. A prefrontal trough of low pressure was seen from the central High plains through central MN. The morning stratus limited insolation across east central KS where temps have only managed warming into the lower 80s. South of the front where stratus is expected, lows are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s once again. Highs are expected to be a bit cooler with less mixing.
549 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A cool front will spill into the area tonight and bring cooler air for Saturday. High pressure will gradually shift east on Saturday with mild temperatures and increasing winds.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 68 76 66 82 / 70 80 90 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 65 77 66 79 / 60 80 80 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 73 65 76 65 80 / 80 80 80 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 63 75 63 77 / 70 70 80 60 30.
244 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the desert southwest. A ridge spur rides north out of this through Wyoming and eastern Montana. A large trough has burrowed its way inland over the Pacific Northwest and is making its way into easter Montana rapidly. Today: Warm front moving through the area this morning will raise temperatures for the day into an unseasonably warm mid 80s which will lead to very low RH in the lower teens across the west. While wind itself won't be a problem initially, a cold front arrives mid-evening and could spread any fires that were active during the afternoon.
Cold front is moving into the Pacific northwest this evening. Much cooler as compared to the past few days. Cold frontal passage later tonight into Saturday morning with rain and ceilings bkn-ovc 030-060.
330 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Warm weather will continue across central Illinois today as afternoon highs once again top out in the lower to middle 80s. Elsewhere, partly to mostly sunny conditions with highs in the lower to middle 80s will be common.
After record-breaking heat yesterday, today will feature slightly cooler temperatures thanks to the passage of a weak cold front. Highs are still expected to reach the low 80s across most of the area, so it will still be plenty warm for October. Winds will remain fairly light, turning to the east and southeast this afternoon as high pressure slides across the northern Plains.
Highs today will again climb into the low to mid 80s across the area.
1146 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A ridge axis is currently overhead and is expected to pass by this evening, which will lead to a more southwesterly flow regime in the upper levels for tomorrow afternoon. Relative humidity values are expected to be below 15% across all of the lower elevations, but the strongest winds are expected over the aforementioned counties. The enhanced wind speeds are from tightening surface pressure from the interactions from what will be Tropical Storm or Depression Delta, a surface lee cyclone, and two synoptic systems to the north.
Weaker wind fields and lingering low cloud should keep high temps similar to slightly cooler than Friday as the weak boundary undergoes frontolysis.
Upper level ridging will move into the area today, resulting in hot temperatures. As the ridge moves east, a low level thermal ridge will do the same. The predicted highs at Abilene and San Angelo are both warmer than their current records.
344 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Another warm day for much of Ohio and Indiana today, but slightly cooler north.
An upper trough approaching the Pacific NW coast will bring clouds and precipitation to the region on Saturday.
852 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A weak low pressure system will track southeast, off the coast through Saturday, maintaining a deep marine layer and gusty onshore flow over the mountains and deserts.
316 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Quiet but hot weather will continue today with more record high temperature records in jeopardy as upper level ridging remains in place. Tonight, clear skies and light winds should allow for good radiational cooling which will drop temperatures back into the low to mid 50's.
Most of the area should warm back into the low to mid 80s today, but the added cloud cover and possible scattered rain will keep temperures in the far southeast in the upper 70s. Delta remnants will continue shifting northeast tonight, with a ridge axis aloft shifting east into the area.
451 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 High pressure centered to the east of the Delmarva reaches southwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Deep layer ridging centered over the Bahamas supports deep southeasterlies across the Florida Keys, corroborated by the KBYX VWP. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Most of the island chain from Bahia Honda to Key Largo have had a round or two of brief rain, while the Lower Keys have remained dry. Meanwhile, the mean layer ridge will retrograde to the west across the Florida Keys, driving a moist and southerly profile through the island chain.
1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 A cool front will spill into the area tonight and bring cooler air for Saturday. High pressure will gradually shift east on Saturday with mild temperatures and increasing winds.