Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR. AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. IN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2. 00 INCHES CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 87-90 DEGREES WITH THE LOWER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES.
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.
419 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015 Surface observations across the area indicate a lack of any discernible weather-making boundaries, with weak flow as an area of weak low pressure sits over the Southern Plains. Through the morning hours this trough will continue its trek to the south/southeast, dragging with it the better chances for rain.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ONE FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK SFC TROF THAT WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM FRIDAY AND EVEN WARMER SATURDAY AS 700 MB WARM ABOUT 2-4C.
MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TNT WITH ITS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TNT TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THANKS TO THE WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS BUT ALSO DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTH WITH A LGT WLY FLOW EXPECTED.
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
01 THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOW 90S TODAY. IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR. 50H RIDGE. PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET SIDE. SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. WITH 70H RIDGE RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY THE 4TH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. USUAL MODEL BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE.
625 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT.
Today will be another quite warm day with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday's and near record values. Fourth of July, Saturday: High pressure will begin to weaken, though high temperatures will remain very warm.
126 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE LOW-COUNTRY WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.
THIS SAME TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BEAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR STARTING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
414 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING AND THE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT 01Z TO 05Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY EVEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LOWS WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S(F) AND UPPER 60S(F).
305 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NW IA THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR, PRECIP HAS FIRED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO TIMING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE SHOULD THE SHOWERS MAINTAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT FROM TONIGHTS MCS/SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND END UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN IL.
254 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE LOW-COUNTRY WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.
229 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEK.
OTHERWISE CHANCES OF TSTORMS REMAIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CAPE BUILDS AND CIN WEAKENS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN WI. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO WI LATE ON TUE.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND A TROUGH EXISTS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT INLAND WARMING TREND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH MIDWEEK. THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
/ISSUED 1048 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT CAP YET.
AS SFC RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING E ACROSS OK/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FARTHER E TUESDAY. WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES ITS WWD PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE WEST TOMORROW.
301 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2015 EXPECT SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNTIL TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING A HEAT WAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BEST INLAND PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA. BY THU MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE WEEKENDS RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN EARNEST. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO PROGRESSIVELY WARM THROUGH THE 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY MID EVENING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING S/W TROFS INTO THE REGION. AND FOCUSES ON THE S/W TROFS AND A WEAK CANADIAN FRONT FOR PCPN CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER N WI ON WEDS.
351 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015 (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area the next 24 hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
WE ARE MOSTLY ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHY CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END FOR PRECIP TONIGHT/TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TOMORROW. AND OUR KANSAS COUNTIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 90S DEPENDING ON HOW THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE PATTERN ALOFT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A FLAT RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 00Z WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS THERE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
/ISSUED 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015/ (Today and tonight) An inverted trough/upper level low will remain across north Mexico/South Texas, while an upper level ridge builds into North Texas and Oklahoma. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the inverted trough are forecast to mainly remain across South/Central Texas as the upper level ridge suppresses most convection across West Central Texas. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s, with stratus development expected across the southern half of the area after midnight.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. MODEL DATA INDICATE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD FIRE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST AND 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT. ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROGH THE REGION TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AS WELL. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
LOWS BY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT RIDGING OVR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH EMBEDDED SW TROF NOW WELL TO THE E OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MO VALLEY. COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH TODAY. BUT ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NWRN FA WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SMALL EMBEDDED SW CURRENTLY OVR SRN ID. WARMER FLAT RIDGING. BUILDING LOW PRESSURE OVR SRN WY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE A SORT OF WARM FRONT UP INTO NERN WY THRU THE DAY. PERHAPS A COUPLE OVR/NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN THE EVENING.
TOMORROW WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, EXPECT STORMS TO FROM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN E TN AND SW NC.
RIDGING HAS REPLACED THE WEAKNESS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROF IN THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL OSCILLATE A BIT BACK AND FORTH ALSO AND THIS TO WILL HELP IN DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE.
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 90S WITH DEWS IN THE LOW 70S.
335 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS A 700 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL HAVE 30 POPS THIS EVENING CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER LIFT IN THIS PART OF THE CWA. THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
126 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
BUT BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHES IN. THOUGH STRONG CAP FROM RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW GRADE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE PLAINS THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF CONSENSUS GRIDS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN READINGS THIS MORNING.
332 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS AS OF 21Z. OUR CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN A NW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OR PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OR UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND 70S-80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS MOST TO THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE NW FLOW WILL BE E OF THE MTS.
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 700MB-500MB TROUGH AXIS EXITING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT. TODAY WILL FEEL COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTING NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN COOL. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY DEPARTS AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY BACK INTO PINE/SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS/CARLTON COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA. THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES TUE NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK UPPER S/W AND SFC INFLECTION DROP IN FROM THE NORTH.
1023 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2015 COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. GENERALLY A LITTLE COOLER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS DUE TO A WEAKER DELTA BREEZE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE COMMON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
1131 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING THE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH DETERMINING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF QUICKLY TRAVELING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT.
320 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A DRY AND WARM START TO THE WEEK WILL TURN STORMY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS STEADILY RETURNING FROM THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE NAM AND GFS. WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
252 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 STABLE POST COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS STUCK IN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY. A FEW CUMULUS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION WHERE ITS IS MORE UNSTABLE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AND NEAR THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PLAINS UNDER THE STRATUS. EXPECT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT QG DYNAMICS OVER OUR AREA.
254 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH MAY ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE EURO MEMBERS HAVE RANGES AS LARGE AS 65 PERCENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO HIGH MEMBERS DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.
141 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
307 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
HOT AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
632 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST TUESDAYS MORNING.
/ISSUED 201 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ THE PRESENCE OF THE UA RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE SYNOPTIC RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE INVERTED UA TROUGH DRAPED FROM ERN TX AND SW TO ACROSS SERN OLD MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SAID UA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE THROUGHOUT TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA /ACROSS SOUTHERN TX AND SERN OLD MEXICO/ COURTESY OF THE UA RIDGE EXPANDING A BIT MORE EWRD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UA RIDGE NOT CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING.
The significant flat ridge across the region. The boundary sinking south tonight will wallow across southern Kansas long enough before moving back to the north late Tuesday to allow for cooler temperatures.
AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY SUBTLE WAVE IN THE DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH/WAVE/DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MIGRATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE SERVICE AREA. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN.
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP THIS WAY FROM THE NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE TO TRANSITION THE BOUNDARY BACK INTO A WARM FRONT BY WED-WED NITE. WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER BARRELS ATOP THE HIGH IN THE MEAN NWLYS JUST TO OUR NORTH.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.