Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
403 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 Current surface analysis shows relatively tight pressure gradient remaining over the Northern Plains, between low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and high pressure over the Rockies. Upper level analysis shows deepening trough over the Great Lakes Region and a ridge over the west coast. Mainly quiet weather expected through Friday as ridge to the west eventually moves over the area. Highs on Friday will be above average, mid 30s to upper 40s, as weakening ridge slides over and east of the area.
This High pressure aloft will build into Montana today, keeping the area dry with near normal temperatures and breezy westerly surface winds. Have therefore upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning there and cancelled the Watch elsewhere. Winds elsewhere in the High Wind Warning area could gust to around 70 mph at times, while other areas will likely have 50 mph gusts at the strongest.
/issued 311 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Currently cold front had exited Monroe County taking with with it the last of the precipitation. Post frontal temperatures ranged from the low 40's in the north to the upper 50's in the far southeast. digging upper trough in the Mississippi Valley will shift east this period leaving a northwest upper flow over the area.
Much Cooler. Look for much cooler temperatures for the next 24 hours. Another cold front continues to push south across Texas this morning. This front will produce winds from the north today, along with much cooler afternoon highs, mainly in the lower to mid 50s. However, cloud cover and light winds should help maintain lows above the freezing mark tonight.
812 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 The wintry mix will end this morning as a cold front exits the area. The post dawn update featured cancellation of the morning winter weather advisory for freezing rain as temperature rose above freezing and precip is ending. The winter storm watch for Preston, Tucker, and Garrett Counties was replace with a winter storm warning, and advisory which extends up the ridges of Fayette and Westmoreland Counties. Expect a break/diminishment in precip activity until later in the day when the colder air crosses the lakes and the lake snow/upslope machine gets going with better aligned flow in the wake of the mid level trough. Steepening lapse rates and a more favorable lake trajectory should support a period of efficient snowfall production, especially in the typical locales north of I-80 and in the high terrain through Friday.
Temps much cooler Friday but still only a few degrees below average for this time of year.
A large upper trough will swing through the region today and tonight, bringing the potential for snow squalls to portions of central Indiana.
Mesoanalysis and satellite imagery confirm a noteworthy subsidence wake over Minnesota and Wisconsin accompanied by an embedded lower level thermal ridge. Nearly saturated boundary layer supports blanket mention of high chc to likely pops across the area, particularly within favored LES fetches and along the glacial ridge. Increasingly veered flow in the wake of departing cyclone will steer potential for banding into western Monroe County overnight where 1 to 2 inches will be possible. Thermal trough and copious stratus directly overhead to begin Friday. Middle and upper levels will begin to moderate as flat longer wavelength ridging propagates across the central and eastern US in advance of another round of east Pacific energy coming onshore over the West Coast.
As main trough continues to settle into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region, high press will work its way into the Plains off the Rockies and tighten the surface press gradient.
12Z TAF discussion: A line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front has just about cleared the entire forecast area this morning, but will impact KHBG through around 13Z. /NF/ Today and Tonight: A low pressure system was spinning over the Great Lakes region this morning with its cold front extending southward through our forecast area. A line of thunderstorms that developed along the front last night has cleared the Interstate 20 corridor already, and the weakening line should clear the Highway 98 corridor through southern Mississippi by 7 or 8 a. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the front throughout the day, but temps today will stay near seasonal normals. /NF/ Cool high pressure will move across the area on Friday with highs in the low/mid 50s under partly cloudy skies.
444 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 The cold front has moved through bringing a slightly cooler, albeit still seasonable, airmass.
641 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front will move across the area on Thursday. sleet and freezing rain will develop overnight and change to rain after sunrise Thursday. Will keep winter weather advisory up for now for southern zones as mixed precipitation including light freezing rain will make travel conditions tough at times.
High pressure will become established across the region though Friday with inversions becoming stronger across most valleys.
06Z surface data has a cold front from eastern lower Michigan into the Tennessee Valley with high pressure over the Rockies. ahead of a digging west coast/eastern pacific trof.
Upper level ridging will dominate the weather pattern today, resulting in above normal temperatures, clear skies, and light winds. An upper low, currently about 600 miles off the southern California coastline, will begin to slowly shift east northeast today. The low is forecast to move into southern California late Friday morning, with precipitation spreading north into Kern county early Friday morning.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with thew coldest air over Nunavut and a large trough extending south through Manitoba and the Mississippi Valley. This trough is very wide with influence from New England to eastern montana. As second more narrow trough extends out of the cold center through Northern British C Columbia and into the Gulf of Alaska. Between these two large features is a broad weak ridge jutting up the western CONUS coastline into southern British Columbia. Northeast Montana lie between the eastern trough and the ridge to the west placing it under northwest flow aloft. Today: The crest of the ridge will move through the area generating partly cloudy to clear skies and western winds. wind will pick up and mechanical mixing may provide for a warmer overnight temperatures again.
A cold front pushed off the Cumberland Plateau overnight and by 3 am a band of trailing clouds lingered over our extreme eastern areas. Upper trough deepens over the eastern United State through tonight and then starts to pull east on Friday. As 1000-700mb moisture increases in base of trough tonight, values increase to around 70% in our extreme northeast.
A cold front is moving through Central AL this morning. For today, high pressure builds in to our west as the trough moves off to our east. Will monitor through the morning, and if winds trend higher than forecasted, a Wind Advisory may be needed, especially in the higher elevations.
/issued 244 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Low amplitude upper ridging will drift eastward toward the forecast area today while an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes with the jet streak supporting it carves the trough as far south as the mid-South. As a result will see cool air behind the cold front that moved through the South Plains region last evening supported with additional northeasterly surface flow through much of today. Abundant cirrus again today should keep temperatures on the cooler end of objective guidance while the flip side is expected for overnight lows.
543 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 The wintry mix will end this morning as a cold front exits the area. Hires models are indicating a quick end to the precipitation, with most, if not all, moving over the higher elevation counties in the east shortly after dawn. These locales will be where I have implemented the highest PoPs. Steepening lapse rates and a more favorable lake trajectory should support a period of efficient snowfall production, especially in the typical locales north of I-80 and in the high terrain through Friday. Have thus maintained the winter storm watch for the ridges of WV and MD in collaboration with neighboring offices.
High pressure aloft will continue through tonight with relatively mild air above colder valleys resulting in an inversion and the usual fog in the valleys. On Friday a cold front from the north will spread light snow into our CWA with flurries or light snow as far south as the Treasure Valley by sunset. Friday will be a little milder than today ahead of the approaching cold front.
High pressure of Pacific (non-Canadian or polar) origin will build east into the southern Plains and then into the se U.
614 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Early this morning a cold front had moved into Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana and Mississippi along/near a line from Natchez, Mississippi to Boyce and Hornbeck, Louisiana and Brookeland and Huntsville, Texas. High pressure on the surface and aloft will spread over the Four State Region today and remain across the area through late Friday providing a break in the rain. Cold air will settle over the area overnight providing freezing temperatures for a few locations.
538 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 The cold front has made it through all TAF sites, although winds have only come up at KAUS and KSAT so far. Cold front passage taking place early this morning will result in a breezy and dry day for South Central Texas resulting in some elevated fire weather concerns and near advisory level wind impacts. Local terrain effects with due northerly winds as expected typically result in wind maxima being located along the I-35 corridor between Travis and Bexar counties and it is in those locations that the higher wind speeds, potentially briefly exceeding the 26 mph advisory threshold, could be seen.
1026 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front will cross the area by midday and move off the coast by early this afternoon.
Today Through Friday Night The cold front and associated convection are now long removed from Arkansas, and drier air is beginning to filter into the state.
The near term forecast is on track with rain having ended and cooler and drier air continuing to move into the ArkLaMiss region. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the front throughout the day, but temps today will stay near seasonal normals. /NF/ Cool high pressure will move across the area on Friday with highs in the low/mid 50s under partly cloudy skies.
450 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Current sfc analysis shows the cold front about to enter the nrn portions of the forecast area. The cold front will continue moving swd through the forecast area over the next few hours with the bulk of the precip expected to stay to our east where better moisture/lift is progged. Much cooler temps can be expected tonight with overnight lows dropping to the upper 30s nern zones/lower 40s elsewhere.
with yesterday's trof moving into the Ern USA. A broad ridge was along the W coast. and that will force the Wrn ridge over the Plains tonight. This high will emerge into the Srn Plains today and then remain there tonight. A warm front will form to its S in the lee of the Rockies as downslope warming occurs. High temps will be a little cooler than yesterday. Low-lvl ridge axis moves thru.
Cooler and becoming cloudy Friday, with showers likely in the afternoon and evening, as low pressure moves across the region.
This will keep dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere and VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Upper level moisture will continue to move in from the Pacific as a low pressure system spins off of the West Coast. The high clouds should thin and scatter out tonight. The high pressure center will build east on Friday and allow the wind to turn to the south.
Latest 29/00Z model and probabilistic data continues to show a zonal synoptic flow over the lower half of the CONUS.
visibilities and winds increase through morning as the cold front moves through, with VFR conditions expected by noon.
324 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 Current surface analysis shows relatively tight pressure gradient remaining over the Northern Plains, between low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and high pressure over the Rockies. Upper level analysis shows deepening trough over the Great Lakes Region and a ridge over the west coast. Mainly quiet weather expected through Friday as ridge to the west eventually moves over the area. Highs on Friday will be above average, mid 30s to upper 40s, as weakening ridge slides over and east of the area.
Pacific high pressure will continue building eastward into the central Plains this afternoon as an upper trough slides into the Upper Midwest. With more of a southwesterly surface wind trajectory, Friday may bring even warmer highs due the the influence of downslope.
This morning's sounding sampled light winds through the lower troposphere. The cold front currently pushing through the northern Gulf Coast, will blast through the Florida Keys tomorrow morning, between 12-15Z (700-1000 AM local). From synopsis, a broad high pressure system will steadily weaken through the day. A strong cold front will race across the Gulf of Mexico tonight. A cold front likely will sweep through the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters early Friday morning.
Cool and dry conditions will continue through the next few days as a weak ridge settles over the area.
A much quieter morning with respect to fog/stratus as low level winds have increased ahead of a cold front approaching north Florida. The cold front is forecast to push rapidly through central FL with winds turning northwest-north and remaining breezy overnight. Strong cold advection will produce temperatures falling into the mid 40s north of Orlando to the lower- mid 50s down to Okeechobee and along the Treasure coast. A strong cold front will cross the waters with winds becoming N/NW behind the front and rapidly increasing to 20-25 knots with occasional gusts to gale force.
357 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 Clear skies and generally calm conditions are being reported across the forecast area this morning as a ridge of high pressure temporarily resides over the Western CONUS. Under these conditions current temperatures are running in the low to mid teens in the high country and low to mid 20s in the lower elevations. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 20s to mid 30s in the high country and mid 30s to lower 40s at lower elevations this afternoon. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned over the Western CONUS with a cut off low centered off of the Southern California coast.
524 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Pacific high pressure centered over the Rockies moves into Texas today. the forecast shows 30 to 40 mph gusts with the higher speeds north. Temperatures are much cooler north with highs in the 30s where there is snow cover. a warm front currently across British Columbia will lift through Nebraska. New Year's weekend will be dry, but a cold front will surge south through the area late Friday night as an Alberta Clipper system crosses the northern plains.
649 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 An upper level trough will allow for snow showers across the area today into Friday.
Upper level trough shifting eastward from the Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region early this morning. Fire weather will be main focus the next couple of days both at the front of the high building in today and on the back side of the high on Friday. Over the upcoming weekend, we will be dealing with a closed low (currently) in the Pacific, opening up and bringing in precipitation chances. it will be colder than the past couple of days with cold air advection in the lower levels as the high pressure system builds in.
331 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 Northwesterly flow aloft will be decreasing and turning westerly through tonight as an upper ridge moves in from the west coast. Warm advection will allow for slightly warmer temperatures today, however much lighter winds may keep some low lying spots and areas with snow cover similar to or even slightly cooler than yesterday. Warm weather Friday likely followed by a harsh return to cold Friday will quite warm in most areas with warm advection aloft, strengthening lee trough, and downslope warming. By tomorrow night, a cold front is still on track to push across the plains bringing a surge of somewhat cooler and more moist low level air.
553 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Today-Friday: Brisk northwest winds anticipated today will become light downslope tonight as high pressure builds in the region.
West to northwest flow aloft continues across Colorado, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Desert Southwest. Expect dry weather and near normal temps across the forecast area over the next 24 hours as high pressure continues to build into the 4 Corners region. Look for high temps today in the 40s for the plains, and 30s to near 40F for the high valleys.
Expect dry weather and warmer than normal conditions again today.
The cold front mentioned in the previous discussion has finally moved through the region leaving behind cirrus and VFR conditions at all of the TAF sites. /issued 614 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Early this morning a cold front had moved into Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana and Mississippi along/near a line from Natchez, Mississippi to Boyce and Hornbeck, Louisiana and Brookeland and Huntsville, Texas. High pressure on the surface and aloft will spread over the Four State Region today and remain across the area through late Friday providing a break in the rain. Cold air will settle over the area overnight providing freezing temperatures for a few locations.
525 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 Weak ridging lingers across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and over the Florida Keys. A strong upper level trough is digging through the Central Plains. Locally, much of the Florida Peninsula remains shower-free, with dew points generally in the low to mid 60s and with depressions within 0-2 degrees, causing foggy conditions. The spotlight remains on an incoming cold front, which will be the strongest of the season thus far. The upper level trough currently digging across the Central Plains will have enough support by the jet stream to make it through the island chain.
Combined with winds aloft backing to a more westerly direction expect lee side troffing to increase along with gap winds over the western foothills. May need a High Wind warning for this Highway 191 corridor with later forecasts but for now Wind Advisory remains in effect for Livingston and the Beartooth Foothills through Friday evening. Breezy conditions in the morning will keep warm up going through about noon with temperatures possibly making it into the 40 degree realm for a brief time in some locations before a cold front moves in for the afternoon.
401 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Today and Tonight: A low pressure system was spinning over the Great Lakes region this morning with its cold front extending southward through our forecast area. A line of thunderstorms that developed along the front last night has cleared the Interstate 20 corridor already, and the weakening line should clear the Highway 98 corridor through southern Mississippi by 7 or 8 a. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the front throughout the day, but temps today will stay near seasonal normals. /NF/ Cool high pressure will move across the area on Friday with highs in the low/mid 50s under partly cloudy skies.
Cool and dry conditions will continue through the next few days as a weak ridge settles over the area. Temperatures are a little cooler than expected this morning across eastern portions of the CWA. Cool and dry conditions will continue through the next few days as a weak ridge settles over the area.
314 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016 It's not often we see the highest dewpoints pooling in our western counties, but such is the case today with drier/recycled return flow trajectories residing off the Caprock. This theme should change later tonight across the eastern Panhandle as a LLJ enhances lift along a pseudo-warm front at 310K oriented NW to SE. Afterwards, height rises and increasingly anticyclonic flow take grasp as the upper ridge relocates overhead by late day. Ridging across the central CONUS will give way to southwesterly flow aloft as next storm system comes ashore the Pacific Northwest. A trailing trough should makes its way into the area by mid-week.
Given this and trends in several of the high-res NWP we have opted to add an isolated thunder mention across roughly the western two columns of counties through 03Z. /issued 314 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/ It's not often we see the highest dewpoints pooling in our western counties, but such is the case today with drier/recycled return flow trajectories residing off the Caprock. This theme should change later tonight across the eastern Panhandle as a LLJ enhances lift along a pseudo-warm front at 310K oriented NW to SE. Afterwards, height rises and increasingly anticyclonic flow take grasp as the upper ridge relocates overhead by late day. Ridging across the central CONUS will give way to southwesterly flow aloft as next storm system comes ashore the Pacific Northwest. A trailing trough should makes its way into the area by mid-week.
Vertically stacked low pressure over Indiana this morning will lift northeast through the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. The region should see a gradual decrease in moisture through the period as the low to the east moves away from the region. For for Sunday, highs should be about a category warmer than today.
Tonight Through Sunday A large Pacific low pressure trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast will move inland and eventually across western and central Wyoming bringing increased clouds and showers with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
The remainder of the weekend looks nice with ridging building back into the area and slightly warmer temperatures expected on Sunday. we'll be watching a couple of features that are likely to bring warmer and more humid conditions to North Texas through midweek. along with increased rain chances and a cold front by the end of the week.
The center of the large upper closed low pressure system over the Ohio River valley region will slowly drift northeast and slightly fill over the next 24 hours. A medium amplified upper level trough will follow the system and extend from the low to the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
The current northern IN upper low will finally pull away which will weaken the low level cyclonic flow and moisture transport with high pressure into IA by 12z. /Sunday night through Saturday/ The large level upper low that has been camped out from the lower Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley is finally getting caught up in the flow with high pressure over the western Atlantic and another upper low digging into the Pacific Northwest.
Concur with the GFS deterministic which predicts an upper disturbance to enter the western CONUS and contribute to the increasing of the upper ridge amplitude over the central CONUS/CWA during the period.
A cold front will push though the area this evening bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to north central and southwest Montana. Showers will return to southwest Montana Sunday morning and spread north through the day as a large upper level low pressure slowly moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Moist upper level southwest flow aloft has set up across the region as a Pacific trough deepens and translates east.
1048 PM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016 A strong cyclone over the mid-west and a downstream Bermuda high will continue to create a blocky pattern going into the early week period. As such the upstream cyclone off the central NOAM left coastline will be forced to dig into the northern Great Basin during the same time frame. Gusty winds will be more of a threat than precipitation in the lower elevations. High temperatures should be a degree or two warmer. The subtropical jet will be forced over our CWA tomorrow night as a branch of the stronger polar jet dives into the base of the low.