Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA MADRES WILL HELP PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
WITH DEEP TROFS AT THE COASTS AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER AR. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING TO NEAR 80/THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN. ONE MORE COOLISH NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI. THIS SRLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL.
lee troughing will continue across the High Plains. This is in association with a trof approaching the region and storms forming along the dryline and/or warm front. Any tornado threat will be confined along the warm front in NE CO and NW KS, where low level winds are backed with baroclinic vorticity augmentation.
Temperatures rise from near 50 this morning quickly into the 70s and low 80s as warmer temperatures aloft continue to move in from the west and mix down into the afternoon. Upper ridge continues to approach our area from the west into the overnight hours, with warm overnight lows expected to stay in the 50s to near 60. On Saturday a mid level trough will dig over the Great Lakes region, which will drag a front into the forecast area.
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE NE/SD BOARDERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FOLDING OVER INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN MODEST 60M HEIGHT RISES OVER OUR AREA YIELDING SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS OF 70-75F. VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN AND MODELS NOW QUICKER WITH ARRIVAL IN OUR AREA RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO TAP INTO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
428 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS SETX TODAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE SETX SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AS HEIGHTS FALL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTERLY DRIFT TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO TN FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED BRING THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE SPINNING ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM PRETTY QUICKLY IN RESPONSE.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
First, a warm front will set up somewhere between northern MO and central IA on Saturday morning, then will stall and eventually slowly sink southward across the forecast area.
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME WIND TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST.
316 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 High pressure moving over the region tonight is aiding temperatures in falling into the 40s area wide. The high was also bringing clear skies this morning. The mild and pleasant conditions will continue tonight as the ridge approaches the area with lows in the 50s. The upper level ridge will move over the region through the day Saturday though it will be suppressed to the south as an upper level storm system moves across the Rockies. Saturday will be another nice day with highs in the lower 80s along with southerly winds.
UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IN FROM THE NE. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE CREEPING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR IN FROM THE SW. ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT.
Light and variable winds will becoming more southerly this afternoon as high pressure begins to shift east of the region. /ISSUED 303 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/ High pressure will reign supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today at the surface and aloft.
437 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
448 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 THE BOWLING BALL UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE FA. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKNESS FORMING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT SPARKS VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LATER TONIGHT. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS LACK OF DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PROHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPWARD TREND THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
414 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN CUBA. AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MUCH WARMER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. EVEN ALONG THE IL SHORE SO NOW HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE SHORELINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR FLOWING IN OFF THE LAKE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON.
401 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DIGS OUT OF THE ARCTIC DIRECTLY INTO THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SWILL SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. CONSENSUS OF MOS IS MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY ELEVATED. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHEAST MT TO NORTHWEST WY. LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF COLD FRONT STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE ACCAS AT THIS POINT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY AS NOSE OF 120KT JET AT BASE OF UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO CO. SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NE THIS EVENING WITH NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND IT. UP TO 1500J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE MLCIN POOLS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH CO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WY.
SHOWER AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST UT AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. OUR RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SOUTH FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE BETTER MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SEPARATE DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS A TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY BEFORE TURNING NE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
A FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, BUT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEEPENING OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND PAST HELENA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT IT WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE ISLANDS AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING TROUGH. THE PASSAGE OF THE THIRD TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE COOLING OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WE/RE STILL SEEING SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BUT A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP IN TONIGHT. MEDIUM THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY.
WITH EASTERN HALF ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH MINIMUMS SLIGHTLY WARMER GIVEN MORE WIND AND MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OVERALL WOULD PREFER TO HEDGE WARMER/DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTEND.
354 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER TODAY THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAXES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
303 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 High pressure will reign supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today at the surface and aloft.
1140 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE AREA FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS IS GOING TO BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
620 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
ALOFT A H5 HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO BREAKDOWN. THIS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN AND H5 RIDGE WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THE LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A DIGGING WAVE AND FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL AID IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE WARMER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY.
1146 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER RIDGING SLIDING EAST AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND WITH ONLY FLAT CU ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SW. MAIN WX CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
The higher terrain, especially along the divide, could experience gusts in excessive of 40 mph. The main low pressure system will remain over the Great Basin of Nevada and Utah Saturday. The location of this low could keep wrap around precipitation going across Lemhi county into southwest Montana.
421 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE WORKS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS THE FEATURE OF FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGHER THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP ACTIVITY.
124 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH BY THAT TIME WILL BE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST AND A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. DUE TO THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY'S HIGHS SO FAR WITH LOW ELEVATION TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SITES AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
Mid level ridging off to the west will allow some return flow and warmer temps in the west/northwest, with temps reaching above normal levels for early May. A cold front ahead of it will be pushing through the forecast area on Saturday. Evening model suite continues to support the front hanging up in a northwest-southeast fashion from Nebraska to Kentucky, where it becomes parallel to the upper flow between the low north of the Great Lakes and the remnants of a ridge traversing the mid- Mississippi Valley.
/TODAY/ UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BE MAIN PLAYER TODAY PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS IOWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON HELPED BY AMPLE SUNSHINE.
IF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NE DO HOLD ON TONIGHT THOSE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY. THE CONUS IS UNDER A SEMI-OMEGA BLOCK TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MAKES UP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BLOCK. EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES TODAY, WE WILL BE UNDER CAA AND ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
603 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FOLDING OVER INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN MODEST 60M HEIGHT RISES OVER OUR AREA YIELDING SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS OF 70-75F. VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BLOCK ANY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN AND MODELS NOW QUICKER WITH ARRIVAL IN OUR AREA RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO TAP INTO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 (Today and Tonight) The upper-level ridge axis will be centered over the Central and Southern Plains today and will move off to the east tonight, with the approach of an upper low over the southwest states. Flow aloft will transition to southwesterly tonight as the upper ridge moves off to the east. Models show a weak disturbance lifting northeast across southwest Texas and Permian Basin region this evening, with some convection developing over the higher terrain to our southwest. Low level moisture will continue to flow into the region this weekend, ahead of a large upper level low over the Southwest United States.
315 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 High pressure centered over northern Arkansas will drift southeast today. Light west-southwest flow will increase in response to the passing ridge axis today.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TWO HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WAS OVER FAR W TX EARLY THIS AM. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT. WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL MORE ECHOES SHOULD APPEAR ON THE DFX RADAR SATURDAY AS ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WL CONT TO DROP SLOLY SEWD TODAY. MOST AREAS WL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SAT AFTN.
A deep upper level trough will continue to persist along the east coast today.
330 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW SLOWING MOVING ONSHORE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE SLOW ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AS THE DISTRICT WILL THEN BE IN AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN. THE FLOW PATTERN IS DRY WITH PRECIP CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
AND SATURDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RULE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PROVIDES A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.
204 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOW 70S. SO WONT EXPECT ANY HELP WITH MIXING TO WARM UP TEMPS MUCH MORE THAN THE LOW 70S. WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST THEN NORTH ALONG THE COAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION.
555 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 High pressure moving over the region tonight is aiding temperatures in falling into the 40s area wide. The high was also bringing clear skies this morning. The mild and pleasant conditions will continue tonight as the ridge approaches the area with lows in the 50s. The upper level ridge will move over the region through the day Saturday though it will be suppressed to the south as an upper level storm system moves across the Rockies. Saturday will be another nice day with highs in the lower 80s along with southerly winds.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITTING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS HAS KEPT THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER AND WINDY AT TIMES WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.