Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
533 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 1034 MB High pressure OVER AL/MS and ridging northward into eastern IL and western IN at mid afternoon will drift into the mid Atlantic states by Sunday morning. Low temperatures to likely be reached during the evening, ranging from mid 20s from Champaign/Urbana ne to the lower 30s from Springfield southwest. A pronounced warm-up is on tap for Sunday, as strong southerly winds develop ahead of an approaching cold front. A steady flow of moisture into Illinois ahead of the cold front will bring increasing mid and high clouds Sunday afternoon. Despite the limited sunshine, the warm advection airflow will be enough to push high temps into the low to mid 50s.
HUSTON COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
1100 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY.
1000 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MT TO ID. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN. MODEL SOUNDING IN THE EASTERN ZONES INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS WHILE MID LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED. WILL KEEP FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
542 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL SD/NE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WARMER/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS FAIRLY COOL GROUND HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN FORECAST SUNDAY. AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR BRIEF FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THOUGH EXPECT ANY WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO BE QUICK WITH MINIMAL.
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND METRO AREAS WITH MID 60S IN THE WESTERN SUBURBS. INLAND AND GULF COAST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S WITH MID-UPPER 50S FOR GLADES AND HENDRY.
LIGHT S WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE NEAR 10KT BY 16Z AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
1054 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRACKING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST COOLER MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING COOLER OVERNIGHT.
854 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 THE HIGH PRESURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TO EASTERN TENNESSEE. AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY. MODELS DO AGREE IN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES. PERIOD STARTS OFF A TOUCH COOLER AND ON THE DRY SIDE AS A SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ITS PLACE THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.
504 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 A COMFORTABLY MILD SUNNY SATURDAY THAT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL EVOLVE INTO A WARM EVENING WITH SLOW COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S (INTERIOR)/LOWER 60S (COAST) BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
450 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SHORT LIVED AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TO BE REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AND THE LOWER 50S IN NORTHERN KANSAS. AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER THERE. BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY EVENING WE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA AND HEADING OFF TO THE EAST.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO TURN AROUND AS THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD OHIO AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR SUPPLY BEING CUT OFF.
SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR COVERING MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
/ISSUED 504 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ A COMFORTABLY MILD SUNNY SATURDAY THAT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL EVOLVE INTO A WARM EVENING WITH SLOW COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S (INTERIOR)/LOWER 60S (COAST) BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY. MODELS DO AGREE IN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES. PERIOD STARTS OFF A TOUCH COOLER AND ON THE DRY SIDE AS A SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ITS PLACE THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TARGETED AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO FREEZING ALREADY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. WITH A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REST OF THE US.
915 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
526 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT HOURLY OBS REVEAL TEMPS RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 28 57 41 56 / 0 0 10 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 25 54 38 55 / 0 0 10 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 27 53 38 55 / 0 0 10 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 52 35 53 / 0 0 10 50.
523 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT AS LEE TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AS SHORT- WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOV THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SC TRAIL THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW EVE/NIGHT GIVEN THE COND PRES DEF ON THE 280 AND 285 K SFCS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF DZ BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER EXPOSED TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL OK IN THE AFTN. COMBINED WITH THE WARMER TEMPS.
658 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 AVIATION AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
BUT LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. AND PLUME WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGHS IN 40S ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND A LACK OF SNOWPACK. THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY UNNOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY HIGHS. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL CONUS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH DOES INJECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SEEN ON IR ACROSS OREGON ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIP AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND DENSE FOG WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
Lee troughing prevailed over the high Plains. An approaching upper level system and associated cold front may aid in some showers later in the day on Sunday and into Sunday night but overall precipitation looks to be on the light side.
KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR BILLINGS AND A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
537 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH TO THE EAST ANALYZED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ONE TO THE WEST. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. FORECAST FOLLOWS THE COOLER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOW PACK. TOMORROW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN SO ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AGAIN. ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS CREATING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT DOES BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL LOW-ELEVATION VALLEYS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW ADDITIONAL FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
620 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BECOME STEADY AND MAY SLOWLY RISE BY DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
624 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
This is occuring in association with a well-defined wave aloft moving into the Rockies and well in advance of the upper trof currently centered in SOCAL.
As the trough swings across the States it will induce a bit of a low amplitude trough that will stretch across the continent through the mid-work week. And, while normally words like, "low amplitude trough that will stretch across the continent.
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO.
822 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
826 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THIS WEEKEND.
732 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER IS STILL AROUND 2000 FT AND THOUGH THE DELTA BREEZE HAS WEAKENED SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING, TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. JBB WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH STATE WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PACNW IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY DROP TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDS INTO THE DISTRICT.
HIGH RES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS WEEKEND.
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NE OF CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING CWA IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS.
MODELS SHOW THIS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO COLORADO BY THIS EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL DUE TO 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 90+ KT JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE CAPE MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW END.
1104 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TODAY.
ANOTHER RATHER HOT DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND WITH MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 103 TO 107 RANGE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT HIGHS WERE ON THU. THE FRONT WILL START TO WASH OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE REGION OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN MORE MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
614 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2015 High pressure centered over the Southern Plains is keeping a hot and humid air mass firmly in place over the region. A series of short waves moving along the northern periphery of the upper level ridge has set off scattered convection across the mid Mississippi into the Texas panhandle overnight. Highs for today and Saturday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values ranging from 99 to 104 today and 100 to 105 on Saturday. Conditions are expected to remain hot and humid through the weekend as the upper level ridge remains in place over the area.
THE 12Z KKEY RAOB OBSERVATION INDICATES DRY AIR AND LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
732 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS SW INDIANA WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME BACK UP SOME INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST PLACES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WHEN THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN MORE MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH KEEP SW TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
728 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THIS WEEKEND.
MSAS ANALYSES DEPICT A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SERN CWA.
TO BE REPLACED BY MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGIONS.
735 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 41 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
958 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS NW OHIO TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS SW INDIANA WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS BUT HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COOL FRONT EXIT THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING.
SO CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE.
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. WITH HEAT INDICES BEING THE HIGHEST SOUTH AND WEST. LOOK FOR A VFR FORECAST WITH RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.
WARM TODAY WITH LINGERING DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL SEE SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE CONTAIN PRAIRIE. A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM AROUND INL DOWN TO MOOSE LAKE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH THE WARM FRONT RISING NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. A NORTH-SOUTH ORDAINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS AND SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TEMPORARILY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OR JUST A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. COMBINE THAT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S YIELDS MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA OF 105-108 DEGREES.
H5 ANALYSIS CENTERS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND CONCENTRATE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
927 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY PROVIDING ANOTHER NICE DAY UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. UPPER LOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SET UP A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ELKO AND NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN NV TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NV THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHERN NV AND UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL NV.
1128 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
943 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
1202 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAUSING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. WHICH IS OF CONCERN DUE TO THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOLLOWING THIS PAST WEEKS ACTIVE PATTERN. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERAL OF THE UPPER RIDGE THRU THE WEEKEND. ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DIVING SE OVER THE AREA.
WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH STATE WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PACNW IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY DROP TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
DYNAMIC TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH AND AIDED BY ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.