Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
315 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
533 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 We'll see an active pattern over the next few days with the upper ridge flattened or shifted west and a quasi-stationary boundary across the area. So afternoon highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s yield heat indices at or greater than 105 from Linn county, KS through Henry county, MO. High pressure building into the north should help to dry things out. Although this is all relative this year and dewpoints will likely remain in the 70+ range until the high is nearly directly overhead.
Tonight high pressure sags through, with continued dry conditions.
327 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 We'll see an active pattern over the next few days with the upper ridge flattened or shifted west and a quasi-stationary boundary across the area. So afternoon highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s yield heat indices at or greater than 105 from Linn county, KS through Henry county, MO. High pressure building into the north should help to dry things out. Although this is all relative this year and dewpoints will likely remain in the 70+ range until the high is nearly directly overhead.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS KEPT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA.
155 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING A WESTERLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TSTMS TAPER OFF AFT 03Z THIS EVE BUT TROF LINGERS INTO THE EARLY MRNG SO A FEW LEFTOVER SHWRS PSBL. RDGG FNLY CLRS THE TROF OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIPRES ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HOLDS THRU MON NGT KEEPING THE WX DRY. ANOTHER TROF/ COLD FNT PASSES ON TUE AND MODELS GENERATE SOMEWHT WIDESPREAD BUT GNRLY LGT PCPN FOR THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS REMOVED THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 50S REPORTED OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE SHOWING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70 TO THE MID 80S.
A RATHER STATIC WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE.
AND WITH MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS FOR SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF COAST STATES.
320 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW CLD COVER WILL LINGER ON THROUGH SUNRISE AND WILL THEN START TO IMPROVE AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING KICKS IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 8 INCHES THIS MORNING MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE ALOFT MUCH MORE DRY AIR IS SHOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. INTO SUN THE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WITH THE HIGHEST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG FOCUSED ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO ROBINSON LINE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. FEATURES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED POPS WITH FROPA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO THE LOWER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED, AND SPC HAS REMOVED MOST OF FORECAST AREA FROM DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THERE BEING LESS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SO WILL KEEP VCTS AT PIA AND BMI FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN END THEM ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AROUND 00Z.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SAID DRY AIR IN PLACE. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS LIKELY TO GET CONVECTION FIRING YUP IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET CARVED OUT ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.
HOWEVER EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH OF THIS BNDRY AS WELL. AS FOR TEMPS READINGS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE MIN TEMPS HOLD ARND 65. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVING N OF THE CWA DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME PRECIP FRI INTO SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. TUE AND WED WE WILL BE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH E AND A BUILDING RIDGE W. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS (TO 30 KTS) EXPECTED AT KCMX DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.
500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY STATUS QUO CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. A LITTLE MORE CLD COVER FOR MON MAY HOLD DOWN THE HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
212 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING A WESTERLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TSTMS TAPER OFF AFT 03Z THIS EVE BUT TROF LINGERS INTO THE EARLY MRNG SO A FEW LEFTOVER SHWRS PSBL. RDGG FNLY CLRS THE TROF OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIPRES ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HOLDS THRU MON NGT KEEPING THE WX DRY. ANOTHER TROF/ COLD FNT PASSES ON TUE AND MODELS GENERATE SOMEWHT WIDESPREAD BUT GNRLY LGT PCPN FOR THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THEN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH CA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO CO/WY. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD WITH RATHER STRONG JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH WY INTO WRN SD BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM JET ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW A FEW -TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER PARTS OF WY INTO THE BLKHLS AND SWRN SD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER TO MID 70S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
514 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
156 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLORES.
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL IA. MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DUE TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASSENT. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON.
107 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDING IN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT EXPECT PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. 15 LARGE SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Will not issue any heat advisory for Sunday owing to the high potential for storms to mess up the high temperatures, but this might be something to watch for Sunday.
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME SHORT- TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HILINE, INCLUDING KCTB AND KHVR.
958 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SOME SHORT- TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST. AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL CAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS COULD BE WARMER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST.
AND VERY MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE POKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. A DEEP AND STACKED SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOUD LINE GENESIS IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
646 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
854 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
1238 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SERN TX. A LARGE BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED SHRA OVER WEST CENTRAL MS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW. THICK CANOPY OF CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NW GULF COAST CONTINUES TO STREAM NEWD OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LGT SHRA OR POCKETS OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS WHAT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA DOWN INTO SW KS.
723 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE BUMP BACK UP IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THERE STILL IS WARMER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS DEEPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE.
1011 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HILINE, INCLUDING KCTB AND KHVR.
940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THURSDAY.
TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
SO RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHICH INCREASED THE HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH THE TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S TODAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
716 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAKER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WILL BE MUCH COOLER /BELOW NORMAL/ ACROSS BAKER COUNTY DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KBKE AROUND 3Z/03 AND MAGIC VALLEY AROUND 9Z/03. ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY. BUT AS MUCH AS 10 DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN BAKER COUNTY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY IN SWRN IDAHO AND SRN MALHEUR COUNTY. AND ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTH. ENSEMBLES AND THE EC AND GFS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN, south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across extreme northeast KS. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH THE TROUGH.
MOST OF THIS WL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE LOWER CAPES AND MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
1053 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
A WEAKNESS AT 500MB OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY.
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
Daytime highs will be warmer across the west with less cloud cover compared to the east.
SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE BUT MAY SEE A FEW DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN FURTHER.
1138 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 72 93 70 / 10 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 69 90 68 / 10 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 69 90 67 / 10 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 64 89 64 / 20 10 10 10.
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/ MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES STILL LARGELY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
741 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AND LOWERING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF FOG AND STRATUS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE LOW OVER NV/UT ROTATES AROUND AND KEEPS THE AREA IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. FOG/STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER MAGIC VALLEY LAST NIGHT HAS SLOSHED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
BY SATURDAY THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS REGION. IT APPEARS SOME DRIER LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE PULLED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EJECTING EASTWARD AND ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
A strong upper low over the Great Basin this morning will slowly wobble east the next few days. This low will bring potential of winter weather to the region. A strong cold front is moving rapidly southward across the region this morning. The front and the low will provide ample lift for rain. and for the Van Horn region down through the Davis Mountains primarily for the higher elevations. and bridges. Eventually the low moves east but additional troughs move over the western part of the country.
308 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT READINGS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AREA) ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHILE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 CAN BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WILL CARRY THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES UP NORTH AND THE LOWER NUMBERS IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AND THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER EAST TEXAS.
123 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
MULTIPLE VORT MAXIMA WERE ORBITING THE LOW OVER THE W. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TOMORROW BUT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING.
242 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE CLOSED LOW IN ITS RETROGRADE WEST TODAY IS PULLING ENERGY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THE NAM12 ACTUALLY CLOSED IT OFF AT 500 MB OVER SW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND IS PROJECTING THIS TROUGH TO BECOME THE STRONGER COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE OTHER MODELS CATCH UP WITH THIS AND BY LATE SAT NIGHT THE SW COMPONENT OF THIS MULTI-CENTERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER UTAH WILL BE WEAKEN AND BE DRAWN EAST BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT.
AS THIS HAPPENS IT'LL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY CLOSER TO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.