Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some isolated rain showers across northwestern zones ahead of a cold front through sunrise Saturday morning. The aforementioned cold front will push through through this time frame of the morning hours turning winds northerly and increasing clouds behind it. Regardless, cooler temperatures and increasing cloud cover will be had by all behind the cold front with the best chances for more scattered showers and very isolated storms overnight into Sunday morning associated with the backside of the apparent low occluding around southwest Kansas. Temperatures Sunday morning will be quite pleasant in the low to mid 60s and light northerly winds.
Behind this wave a cool front will bring cooler air and quickly stabilize the air mass through the day with gusty northwest winds and much drier air filtering in. The main and fairly strong upper level wave across will deepen and swing east this evening into tonight across southern Canada, which will drop a secondary surge of cooler and drier air. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday as this secondary surge of cooler air spreads across the area.
1145 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Aviation Section Updated Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a passing upper level low pressure system will diminish and end from west to east this evening.
1240 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies have dominated Upper MI this afternoon as a very weak trough remains over the area. Therefore, with cloud cover moving into the west late tonight, expect to see highs in the low to mid 60s in the west and mid to upper 50s in the east. Expect showers and thunderstorms to move into the far west late tonight/early Saturday morning as the cold front comes in. Troughing will move into the Great Lakes this weekend bringing cooler weather with it. The coolest day will be Sunday as a secondary cold front swings through. Ensemble mean 500mb heights show that troughing could dominate the pattern in the extended from the Hudson Bay to the Upper Great Lakes.
Today Currently early this morning, upper ridging is in place across the eastern U.
141 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight. Additional showers and storms will move into the region Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. Dry conditions and light/variable winds prevail overnight as high pressure lingers. Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday with high temperatures around 90 degrees.
The approaching cold front will bring our relatively best chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight.
and Sunday A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms as it sweeps across the region from west to east through this evening. Clearing skies are expected tonight behind the departing cold front as cooler and drier air advects in across the region. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower to middle 50s across the north, with lows in the lower 60s across east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday will be much cooler, ranging from the middle to upper 60s across north-central Wisconsin and lower to middle 70s across east-central Wisconsin.
431 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern and the Great Lakes region and a trough in the northern high plains and Rockies. This trough will move east into the northern plains today. There could be a few very light rain showers Sunday afternoon as the trough axis pushes eastward with the mid-level low exiting Ontario into western Quebec.
(Today) High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas today, keeping the heat that we have felt for much of the week in place for another day. As this high builds, an upper wave will rotate into NW GA and into NE AL, and will lead to increased convergence amid a moisture rich environment.
- The cold front arrives today, dropping temps into the 80s north of I-70 in the afternoon. Broad upper troughing this morning towards the northern and central plains has resulted in scattered showers and isolated thunder along and north of a strong sfc front stretching from southwest KS into central NE. The cold front is expected to sweep through the CWA during the morning and afternoon hours from the northwest. Coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70s along and south of I-35, heat indices may briefly reach around 100 degrees before the front arrives. Mid level vort max rounds the ridge axis from the southwest, entering western KS aft 00Z. Could certainly see isolated severe storms south of I-70 given this environment however anticipate the severe threat to wane overnight as the higher CAPE axis shifts south of the area.
Meanwhile, infrared satellite indicated clear skies over West Central Texas, with surface observations showing warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s. It will also be yet another hot day as the 850 mb thermal ridge remains strong over our region.
219 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Current surface map places cold front across far eastern South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle with secondary cold front across eastern Montana into Wyoming. Upper level trough is moving into the Dakotas.
230 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Weak high pressure overhead will slide east and start to direct warmer air in from the south today and Sunday.
The low level jet is playing a big role in the development of these storms early this morning. As we head into the evening there is still a highly conditional chance for some additional showers and thunderstorm to develop along the cold front. With the low and skinny CAPE profiles and some low level capping/inversions to overcome, any storms that due develop are expected to be elevated.
134 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 The weekend will remain dry with afternoon high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90's.
1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Like clockwork, temperatures across west central Texas this afternoon were once again in the upper 90s to low 100s as a 590dam mid-level ridge continues to be the main feature across the southern Plains.
146 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
1125 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep rain-free weather over the region for most of the weekend.
1255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure will dominate the forecast across the mid-Atlantic states into North Carolina through the weekend.
259 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern and the Great Lakes region and a trough in the northern high plains and Rockies. This trough will move east into the northern plains today. Troughing will move into the Great Lakes this weekend bringing cooler weather with it. The coolest day will be Sunday as a secondary cold front swings through. Ensemble mean 500mb heights show that troughing could dominate the pattern in the extended from the Hudson Bay to the Upper Great Lakes.
The main exception is the southern James River Valley of ND, which may reach the low 70s.
/issued 900 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ Upper ridging prevails across the area with mostly clear skies and light winds. /issued 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ Heat indices have remained below 100 degrees so far this afternoon with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s. RH's are in the low to middle 30s. A ridge will continue to build across the Midsouth tonight and tomorrow. High temperatures and heat indices should be a couple of degrees warmer than today. Rainfall for Sunday is looking more promising as a cold front moves into the area and stalls.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Mid-level ridging centered over the ArkLaTex region will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to support light to moderate south to southeast winds through the weekend. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s across the northern ranchlands and Brush Country, the mid to upper 70s across the Rio Grande Valley and around 80 degrees at the beaches. A passing weak inverted 500mb trough combined with the seabreeze and very limited low-level moisture, may generate a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon.
355 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern and the Great Lakes region and a trough in the northern high plains and Rockies. This trough will move east into the northern plains today. Troughing will move into the Great Lakes this weekend bringing cooler weather with it. The coolest day will be Sunday as a secondary cold front swings through. Ensemble mean 500mb heights show that troughing could dominate the pattern in the extended from the Hudson Bay to the Upper Great Lakes.
304 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
225 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Warm and dry today before a weak cold front brings a chance for a few showers and perhaps an isolated storm overnight.
227 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 The upper trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to the area yesterday has pushed into eastern Montana. Rising mid level heights will cause warmer temperatures (highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees) on Sunday.
The inverted surface trof axis will be near the I-65 corridor by late morning. Convective activity today will be concentrated along and east of the surface trof axis, so highest rain chances will be along the I-65 corridor. Forecast model soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates and moderate mid level lapse rates near the trof axis with PWAT's near 2 inches. Afternoon temperatures on Sunday will be cooler due to influence of easterly wave.
1254 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected under high pressure until shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Sunday cold front. A ridge is progged to strengthen and build from the Srn Plains to the NE CONUS today, maintaining mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures. The NE periphery of the ridge is progged to break down Sunday.
Northward expansion of the ridge axis results in rising heights tomorrow along with plenty of sunshine, contributing to a slightly warmer day with high temperatures peaking around the 90 degree mark. Overall pattern shifts late tomorrow afternoon and evening as a closed upper low pushes eastward across the upper Midwest, dragging a surface cold front along with it. Initially will see an increase in mid to high cloud coverage tomorrow evening as a warm front pushes eastward into the area, with winds veering southwesterly throughout the vertical column. Upstream convection may be able to hold together, reaching western portions of the CWA after midnight Sunday, although will be limited by waning diurnally-driven instability and residual dryness in the low levels.
552 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Surface cold front will move southward today from central into southern Kansas as an upper trof moves eastward across south central Canada/northern Plains. Localized heavy rainfall is possible into the overnight hours in the higher PWAT airmass across southern Kansas with some convection lingering through Sunday morning. Otherwise, much cooler air will overspread the area on Sunday with high temperatures expected to remain below 80F.
An upper level ridge will continue to build over the area through the weekend.
/issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/ One more day of heat before a cold front moves into the area on Sunday to bring us some much needed rain. A cold front will move into the region later on Sunday bringing a chance of showers and storms. This will also keep temperatures cooler.
559 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Northerly winds will pick up into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts by mid morning behind a cold front. /Issued 415 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/ A cold front will pushing southeast across the Panhandles this morning. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight across the northwest CWA as another short wave trough moves across this area and interacts with the subtropical moisture.
The ridge remains in control over the southwest for much of the upcoming week. Heights do begin to gradually decrease, however as the ridge begins to wobble eastward.
KEY MESSAGES: - Showers/thunderstorms this morning will diminish this afternoon with the passage of a cold front.
JKL The upper trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to the area yesterday has pushed into eastern Montana. Rising mid level heights will cause warmer temperatures (highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees) on Sunday.
High temperatures will be noticeably cooler with readings ranging from the lower to upper 70s in far eastern Colorado, middle 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. The high temperature forecast will be tricky given the potential for extensive cloudiness and for areas across our south and southwest some rainfall. Currently, high temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle 60s across the southwest portions of the area to the middle 70s from Norton to Hill City.
Some scattered showers are clustered close to the Bridgeport area of northern Jackson county. Temperatures near and east of this boundary have only risen into the lower to mid 70s due to cloud cover. Temperatures with morning sunshine have risen into the lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Progged SBCAPE values looks too low for a hail threat given high freezing level. Given the pooling of dewpoints near the I-65 corridor (dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s) and highs in the 90 to 95 degree range, heat index values there could top off in the 100 to 104 degree range.
GOES Water Vapor/Derived Winds/NWP model output depict an upper inverted trough/low near the coast. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs move this trough slowly westward during the period.
445 AM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure returns overnight into Saturday, starting a gradual warming trend.
313 AM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure returns overnight into Saturday, starting a gradual warming trend.
Showers and thundershowers are left around ahead of the cold front, which is not in a huge hurry to clear the CWA this morning and is still northwest of the tri-cities as of 5 AM. With the cold front taking more time to clear the CWA to the south southeast, we may be cutting it close with the redevelopment of storms near the cold front this afternoon. Upper level trough will swing through the northern Plains as cold air advection ensues behind the surface cold front for out area. You may notice a bit of a breeze from the north with gusts to around 30 mph or so due to the strong (for this time of year) cold air advection as high temps reach near 80 and drier air works in behind the cold front.
Lastly today looks to be quite a bit cooler compared to recent days, with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s. The main exception is the southern James River Valley of ND, which may reach the low 70s.
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies the next couple of days. This ridge will cause a warm and dry conditions for the region.
724 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Weak high pressure overhead will slide east and start to direct warmer air in from the south today and Sunday.
624 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern and the Great Lakes region and a trough in the northern high plains and Rockies. This trough will move east into the northern plains today. There could be a few very light rain showers Sunday afternoon as the trough axis pushes eastward with the mid-level low exiting Ontario into western Quebec.
827 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected under high pressure until shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Sunday cold front. High pressure remains in place, though will shift east ever so slightly today, allowing for a light southerly wind. Warm and more humid air will return late tonight as southerly flow picks up ahead of an approaching trough. The NE periphery of the ridge is progged to break down Sunday.
Afternoon high temperatures will be near or a bit cooler than average.
937 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure will move offshore later today.
611 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 (Today) High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas today, keeping the heat that we have felt for much of the week in place for another day. As this high builds, an upper wave will rotate into NW GA and into NE AL, and will lead to increased convergence amid a moisture rich environment.
514 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Current surface map places cold front across far eastern South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle with secondary cold front across eastern Montana into Wyoming. Upper level trough is moving into the Dakotas.
518 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Mean layer ridging stretches southeast from near the Arklatex to Cuba, although a few summertime cyclonic upper-level nodes have invaded its core. Temperatures range from 73 to 83 along the island chain, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The oblong cyclone to the east of the Delmarva will sink to the south over the next couple of days, with its western core scraping through Florida. The lower tropospheric kinematics will remain weak, lending to mesoscale processes dictating the rain and thunder chances.
Round two of low pressure retrograde is expected to begin within a few hours, current hi-res models remain in line with what they were depicting yesterday. Relatively drier air from the NE moving in behind the low pressure area will likely confine most of today's shower and storm activity to the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama. Given the early onset of convective activity, temps are expected to cooler than the last few days, with a caveat being humidity will be on the rise. Expect overnight lows in the low 70s with daytime highs hovering around 90 degrees.
TFJ Upper trough currently over eastern Montana will move to the east this morning. High pressure moves into the area tonight with diminishing winds and a cool night with lows in the 40s.
The synoptic pattern remains unchanged with stout upper ridging centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A pocket of dry air across eastern Mississippi will keep heat indices there in check as dewpoints mix out into the low 60s to upper 50s. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures through the period.
The leading edge of cooler air pushed south of Interstate 80 overnight, with winds shifting to a northerly direction and gusting above 30 kt. The cold front will continue its southward progress into northern CO this morning before stalling across central CO this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will average 15-20 degrees cooler, especially east of the Laramie Range with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
718 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Weak high pressure overhead will slide east and start to direct warmer air in from the south today and Sunday.
651 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
446 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Showers/thunderstorms this morning will diminish this afternoon with the passage of a cold front.
618 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Warm and dry today before a weak cold front brings a chance for a few showers and perhaps an isolated storm overnight.
415 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 A cold front will pushing southeast across the Panhandles this morning. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight across the northwest CWA as another short wave trough moves across this area and interacts with the subtropical moisture.
Current temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s.
549 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure will move east of the area today, allowing for modest return flow.
725 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Broad upper level ridging will be in place directly over Southeast Michigan today. H5 geopotential heights of 588 dam expand marginally into southern Lower Michigan today denoting minor ridge amplification while the focus of the anticyclone fixates over Arkansas. The potent moisture plume advecting eastward marked by sharp 0-3 km AGL layer max ThetaE gradient reveals that most of the lower tropospheric moisture gets displaced well ahead of an inbound cold front. Rest of Sunday looks to be a bit cooler (mid 80s) with healthy zonal gusts around 25 mph at times.
918 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
233 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 The main weather story will be a cold front that will cross our region Sunday morning.
Upper level ridging that has been in firm control of the region will flatten and shift westward through Sunday as an upper trough digs over the Great Lakes region. It is in these eastern areas that the effects of the retreating upper ridge are weaker and an enhanced zone of deep layer moisture resides. Lows overnight are expected to only fall into the lower to mid 70s.
255 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure should allow for a mostly dry forecast to continue through the weekend.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak inverted trough can be seen moving slowly northwest across the area this afternoon, while an upper level low is moving east through southern Canada. A cold front being pushed south by the Canadian low can be seen in satellite and radar imagery just north of the I-40 corridor in the TX panhandle, making slow progress to the south. Have included some Slight Chance Pops near and along the cold front for Sunday afternoon, as convergence along the front, along with ample instability and moisture should be enough to get at least some isolated to scattered storms going during the afternoon hours. For tonight, expect similar conditions to the last several days, lows mainly in the low to mid 70s, mostly clear skies, and south winds 5 to 15 mph.
An upper ridge building over the Pacific NW will move in over the next several days allowing for subsidence, warming and mainly clear skies.
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 The weekend will remain dry with afternoon high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90's.
Expect low temperatures to drop into the low-to-mid 70s overnight.
Best chances generally come north of Interstate 94, and more so in the Highway 2 corridor. Lastly today looks to be quite a bit cooler compared to recent days, with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s. The main exception is the southern James River Valley of ND, which may reach the low 70s.
349 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Summary: A cold front accompanied with rain showers continues to move across northeastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. The cold front moving through the Northland this afternoon is bringing scattered showers through the area.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible through Mohave County, mainly through the higher terrain. This is also where some of the high-res model wind fields show potential outflows this afternoon.
316 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure starts to break down some Sunday, allowing for increased rain chances.
254 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 A cold front will move east across the Ohio Valley later tonight and through the day on Sunday, leading to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will build into the region for the start of the work week. A cold front will approach from the west late tonight as some deeper moisture advects northward ahead of it. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warm side with overnight lows generally in the lower 70s. A cold front will move east across the region on Sunday as a mid level short wave shifts east across the Great Lakes. The highest pops are expected to be across our southeast in the mid to late afternoon hours.
251 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Widely scattered convection has fired off the higher terrain already this afternoon. This lull will be short lived, however, as flow turns once again more southeasterly as a ridge of high pressure builds in over the Great Basin. With high pressure in place, the only source of lift for showers and storms will be the terrain itself, and this is where convection is expected to fire during the late morning or early afternoon hours.