Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Will continue to see the low exit into Canada as the ridge moves over western and central SD by 12Z Friday and the high itself over the far western Dakotas by 06Z Saturday. Most the daytime will be dry as high pressure at the sfc and aloft remain in control. Daytime readings will be stuck in the 30s and 40s with even cooler temps over the new snowpack areas in our northwest zones.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front will advance from the Upper Midwest and eventually sweep the lower Ohio Valley on Friday Night. Nonetheless, it is noted that phasing of a mid-level PV anomaly with the cold front circulation can produce a convective uptick south and west of our forecast area. High-pressure subsidence and resultant radiational cooling have induced a recognizable valley vs ridge temperature pattern, as noted in the Kentucky Mesonet. Expect cloud coverage to expand and thicken during the afternoon and evening hours as the cold front gets closer. Sfc cold front will push through on Sat morning, but the pre-frontal precip shield will be shunted well into eastern KY by then, so expect a dry day. Coldest part of the forecast is Sat night and Sun, with the low- level pressure ridge/thermal trof overhead around daybreak Sun.
Low temperatures may drop below freezing in a few locations this weekend, especially Saturday night. Otherwise, a diffuse cold front will stall out across the area overnight into Friday and, with some moisture advection, will continue the mention of 15 to 40 PoPs during time period. With the rain letting up during the day Friday in southern areas, can see an attempt to reach the low 60s, especially south of US-24.
/Tonight/ Sfc ridging has shifted E of the region into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast states, with a light ESE bndry lyr wind returning to the area. Unfortunately, the warm and muggy conditions return by Friday afternoon before the next weak cold front enters the region Saturday and thus, focuses some sct convection near and behind the bndry.
317 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Latest water vapor imagery shows a large upper low moving east into the Great Lakes region while nearly zonal flow can be seen from the Pacific Coast into the nation's mid-section. At the surface, a weak cold front continues to slip south through the CWA and into Kansas and Missouri early this morning.
Slightly warmer temperatures are in store for Friday under mostly sunny skies. A low pressure system will move inland over California on Saturday, with the main impact being stronger onshore flow and slightly cooler temperatures. A low pressure system looks to move inland over northern California on Saturday. Precipitation impacts look to remain well north of our area, leaving increasing westerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures as the primary impacts. Wind gusts of 40-45 mph can be expected across these areas, with localized higher gusts over mountain ridgelines and perhaps below the San Gorgonio Pass.
212 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A southward sagging surface cold front will make for a tricky temperature forecast today. Greatest impact will be across central Kansas with locations near the Oklahoma border much warmer. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will advect across the entire area on Saturday. While lows Saturday morning will flirt with freezing along the I-70 corridor in central Kansas, winds and patchy clouds should stave off frost potential.
200 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front tonight, and remains in control through Friday. Another cold front moves across the region late Saturday.
A backdoor dry cold front will continue to work its way across the Kansas prairie today. Some minor good news is that moderate afternoon relative humidity is expected with the cooler highs, so we should get a break from any fire weather concerns Saturday.
Saturday will be a bit milder and still a little breezy, but gusts should remain closer to 25 mph, with lighter winds in central SD as a ridge of high pressure builds south. Highs generally 40 to 50 with the warmer readings near the Missouri River.
The western side of the upper low continues to weaken very slowly, with snow showers continuing to impact the region. Upper level low pressure system continues to rotate over northeastern MN, with snow showers continuing to wrap around the backside of the low across our area.
254 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 WV imagery at this hour shows a mid-to-upper-level cyclone continuing to depart the region to the east, with a center of circulation near the MN/WI border at Lake Superior. An area of relatively cool cloud tops and enhanced upper-level moisture is evident across the cntrl Rockies extending into swrn SD ahead of low- amplitude troughing covering much of the nwrn CONUS. As the high becomes situated atop relatively fresh snowpack, some fog may develop over far nwrn SD beginning around 03z and extending into the morning hours.
Friday will be dominated by building high pressure with a bit of cold advection and northeast winds across the area. On Saturday the high pressure will slide easy with winds turning out of the east and eventually Southeast. Temperatures both days will max out in the 50s with chilly overnight lows near or below freezing.
May see a bit of a let up in the wind speeds this morning as high pressure begins to nose into the region, but will then see some better mixing this afternoon, with the speeds picking up again, but wind gusts should generally stay under 30 mph.
Dry weather and mostly clear skies will be in place as high pressure remains over the region. As the high pressure moves farther east tomorrow, winds will turn out of the east and begin to move moisture back north into our area.
240 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Quick zonal upper flow was over the southern 2/3 of the CONUS with a deep upper low over Ontario. With last night's idea of mixing being too strong for good radiational cooling also in mind, have stayed on the warmer side of guidance for temperatures, limiting near-freezing temperatures to far northern areas which keeps any frost or freeze potential low.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 57 74 51 70 / 0 60 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 53 72 47 69 / 0 60 50 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 78 52 73 46 68 / 0 60 50 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 48 68 42 65 / 0 40 50 10 20.
1259 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Low pressure of around 992mb has meandered into northwestern Ontario this afternoon, with the U. Thermal profiles aloft support primarily snow to fall, but where temps are running warmer close to the surface, such as in the east, rain could mix in. Thankfully, many are beginning to crest as temps struggle to rise much above the freezing mark today, and the heavier rain that caused it has shut off. Upper Michigan will remain under the influence of broad cyclonic flow into the weekend as a closed upper low continues to rotate over Ontario. But, as the upper low progresses farther northeastward into Ontario tomorrow afternoon, the LES is expected to become lighter. Time cross sections indicate a drying air column late Saturday as subsidence slowly strengthens over the region with approaching Canadian high pressure.
134 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A cold front moves through the area today. High pressure builds in tonight into Friday with dry weather and cooler temperatures. A weak cold front will cross the area on late Friday night into Saturday with another chance of light precipitation. The flow turns south behind the high pressure in the afternoon so temperatures rebound to the 60s to lower 70s. Best rain chances will be to the south, especially along the southern Blue Ridge and North Carolina mountains where southerly flow ahead of the wave should generate some lift along the terrain.
Tonight west winds will relax and become northwest as high pressure begins to build into the region. High pressure continues to build southeast towards the area on Saturday, ushering in cold air advection and diurnally driven cloud cover as daytime heating increases.
The high pressure will strengthen to around 1030mb and be centered across the Dakotas by Saturday morning. As the high pressure builds south, it should act like a backdoor cold front leading to north and east winds across wrn and ncntl Nebraska.
A meandering cold front will make its way south through our forecast area today, with models projecting it to be south of the I-70 corridor by the afternoon. As for temps, expect cool conditions with morning lows ranging in the lower 30s in northern MO and into the upper 40s in southern and central MO. By the afternoon, we can continue to expect the large spread in temps due to the frontal boundary with afternoon highs in the lower 50s in northern MO and into the upper 60s to lower 70s in southern and central MO where WAA is prevalent. The only notable mentions are the cooler morning temps in the lower 30s for areas north of I-70 and into the lower 40s for southern MO. Cooler highs on Saturday can also be expected with temps in the 50s.
Temperature will be above the climatological norm due to the insolation and the ensuing warm advection as the pressure gradient tightens via low pressure crossing ern Canada.
1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Highlights: 1) Warm in southern KS Friday 2) Cooler on Saturday 3) Chances for showers/storms in SE KS Friday & Saturday Challenge: Temperatures on Friday Changes: 1) Adjusted temps on Friday 2) Increased precipitation chances on Friday A cold front will move through Kansas on Friday. The question is the southern progression of this front and respective cooler air in terms of timing which could play a role in the afternoon temperatures. Some places may not get as warm while others may be even warmer than the current forecast. Convective development would occur near the cold front. Cooler air behind the front should drop temperatures on Saturday to around 60 degrees. Some models maintain a cooler trend which would result in lower values than the previous forecast.
1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Latest sfc analysis shows high pres centered acrs TN/KY, ridging south and southwest toward the Gulf coast. However, with a very warm, moist airmass in place, isolated to scattered, diurnally driven, convection will be possible during the afternoon with the highest probabilities across central Louisiana and points further north.
135 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A cold front moving through the eastern Carolinas will stall out just to our southeast this morning. Weak high pressure will build in from the north today, before moving quickly off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. The front will push back northward as a warm front starting early Saturday, as an upper level disturbance crosses the region.
Cold upper level trough will remain over the area into Saturday.
1117 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front will push offshore this evening. Temperatures will trend cooler toward seasonal averages on Friday, with a showery start to the weekend on Saturday.
A warm front is expected to develop near the AR/MO borders late this afternoon with an unstable airmass developing to the south of it. Soundings also indicate rather low freezing levels around 9kft and steep mid level lapse rates. After highs in the mid 60s to low 70s today, we will cool down slightly into the low to mid 60s on Saturday.
Expect a wet and showery start to the weekend with cooler temperatures on Saturday.
A continued tight pressure gradient will mean gusty westerly winds will gust to 30 to 40 mph at times, with the highest gusts across central and east-central Wisconsin. A ridge of high pressure building in across the western Great Lakes is expected to end the lake effect snow across the north by Saturday afternoon with continued cold temperatures across the region.
Low pressure over eastern Canada and an associated frontal system will bring showers back to the Ohio Valley Friday night. The next cold front begins to approach the region late on Friday. Clouds clear out of the area Saturday late morning but temperatures still remain a bit cooler than climatological norms as northwesterly flow dominates with highs in the low 50s to the north and low 60s to the south.
Lows Friday morning will drop into the mid to upper 40s area-wide with lows Saturday morning ranging from the upper 40s over the north to the lower 60s over the south.
The upper low, that brought blizzard conditions into the region, is now located over the Boundary Waters and will continue it's eastward progression. Thus placing North Dakota in the wrap around region of the cyclone. However, as the upper low moves east, the pressure gradient will diminish reducing winds. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to plummet into the low teens for much of the area and single digits for southwestern North Dakota. Saturday, an upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies will progress eastward into the Northern Plains.
A cold front slowly moving into northern FL this morning will stall with the energy with it shifting east of the state through the day today. Enough moisture will remain to allow for scattered afternoon showers and storms with the sea breeze, with the highest chances south and inland. Weak ridging will then build over the peninsula through Saturday night, with afternoon storms again possible with the sea breeze.
TWH Upper low that brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the region is now currently spinning over northern Minnesota this afternoon, with gusty northwest winds continuing to bring areas of blowing snow over the east. Generally an inch or less of snow is possible onto the lower elevations. STP Saturday starts out with a ridge building and high temps in the mid-30s for most, lower 40s south. Ensemble members are in good agreement regarding a vigorous upper trough moving into the the Pacific NW through the day Saturday, which would start to affect our area Saturday evening. As the trough moves further east, it is expected to stay along a more northerly track and move quickly through the area.
Very strong cyclonic flow around a deep upper low in the upper Midwest continue so bring high winds to our CWA, and over the northern 1/2 of the area, we've seen sustained winds around 35-40 mph, and gusts to 55 to 60.
Cooler temperature, closer to the climatological norm is expected overnight with clear sky under building high pressure. Temperature will be above the climatological norm due to the insolation and the ensuing warm advection as the pressure gradient tightens via low pressure crossing ern Canada. Long range model ensembles indicate that another low pressure system undergoing cyclogenesis in the upper Great Lakes region may result in mixed precipitation in the area mid-week.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A nearly zonal flow aloft will prevail across the southern tier of the country today through Saturday with a 500mb ridge across north-central Mexico through the short term forecast. a warm front across south Texas this morning will continue to lift northward today as low pressure across the Texas panhandle and high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico provides southeast winds across deep south Texas today. Patchy fog will linger across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands this morning before the warm front moves northward. Highs are expected to be slightly warmer Saturday compared to today. Expect haze to continue across the coastal sections of deep south Texas today and Saturday with some patchy fog developing across the lower Texas coast late tonight into Sat morning.
520 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Overnight lows thus far have been on the mild side with current readings sitting 8 to 12 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Moisture embedded in the unsettled westerly flow aloft has allowed for light orographic snow showers to develop over the higher peaks along the Continental Divide overnight. Saturday will see upper level flow shift to the southwest as a trough of low pressure pushes inland across the northwestern CONUS. A 110 knot jetstreak rounding the base of the trough will settle over the Western Slope which will translate to yet another afternoon of breezy conditions.
Strongest winds will occur just lee of the higher terrain, both over the San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas as well as parts of the I-25 corridor, mainly near and east of the main gap flows.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a large upper low moving east into the Great Lakes region while nearly zonal flow can be seen from the Pacific Coast into the nation's mid-section. At the surface, a weak cold front continues to slip south through the CWA and into Kansas and Missouri early this morning.
1044 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Water vapor imagery highlights a sharpening mid to upper-level trough across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled significant height falls from 500 to 200 mb, with very little change in the lower troposphere. There are indications that the inverted trough overtop of the Keys may be collapsing, which would enhance the needed moisture convergence. Collapsing troughs are not common in the afternoon across the Florida Keys because normally South Florida heats up and interferes with the lower tropospheric kinematic fields.
Though sunny skies are expected due to dynamic subsidence, low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis will result in a tightening pressure gradient.
Quick zonal upper flow was over the southern 2/3 of the CONUS with a deep upper low over Ontario. With last night's idea of mixing being too strong for good radiational cooling also in mind, have stayed on the warmer side of guidance for temperatures, limiting near-freezing temperatures to far northern areas which keeps any frost or freeze potential low.
Expect lingering precipitation behind the cold front in the eastern and southeast mountains today with light accumulations under an inch expected. Snow levels will be very high ahead of the cold front between 6500 feet and 7500 feet. High temperatures ahead of the cold front Saturday will reach near 60 degrees in the Snake River Plain. It will be windy Saturday ahead of the cold front with 15 to 25 mph sustained winds in most areas and gusts up to 35 mph.
437 AM PDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A little warmer today, then a little cooler on Saturday with stronger and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts.
Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop this afternoon with an upper-level jet overhead and ample mixing allowing for 20-30 kts gusts to mix down to the surface, especially over the high terrain.
803 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A short wave trough off the FL east coast this morning creeps east today while quasi-zonal flow resides above the Gulf of Mexico. isolated to locally numerous with the higher coverage inland and south. A weak front across the waters washes out today and relaxed high pressure builds in for the weekend. Another front pushes in Sun-Mon with high pressure in it's wake.
623 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A southward sagging surface cold front will make for a tricky temperature forecast today. Greatest impact will be across central Kansas with locations near the Oklahoma border much warmer. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will advect across the entire area on Saturday. While lows Saturday morning will flirt with freezing along the I-70 corridor in central Kansas, winds and patchy clouds should stave off frost potential.
Westerly winds are expected today before a cold front pushes southward this evening, leading to northeasterly winds at all sites. Today, expect a lee cyclone to develop in E NM with the Panhandles seeing downslope westerly flow through much of the day.
Scattered drizzle/showers will develop later this morning due in part to isentropic lift as a warm front pushes ashore. Expect highs mainly in the low 80s, but some areas east of I-45 will top out in the upper 70s. Weak ridging aloft also develops overnight, which sets the stage for above normal temperatures on Saturday. 850mb winds out of the southwest will bring in increasingly warmer 850mb temperatures (17-20 degrees Celsius). a cold front?! A cold front will be knocking on the door on Saturday night, which increases PoPs for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas. model consensus points toward the front stalling just outside of Southeast Texas, at least temporarily since the upper-level trough associated with it is fairly weak.
521 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 WV imagery at this hour shows a mid-to-upper-level cyclone continuing to depart the region to the east, with a center of circulation near the MN/WI border at Lake Superior. An area of relatively cool cloud tops and enhanced upper-level moisture is evident across the cntrl Rockies extending into swrn SD ahead of low- amplitude troughing covering much of the nwrn CONUS. As the high becomes situated atop relatively fresh snowpack, some fog may develop over far nwrn SD beginning around 03z and extending into the morning hours.
The most noticeable differences will be a slight reduction in wind speeds as winds aloft weaken, as well as warmer temperatures under rising heights and warm advection. The mountains will remain under the influence of somewhat moist west/northwest flow, with terrain-enhanced showers bringing the potential for a couple inches of snow to the high peaks through the day.
318 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Overnight lows thus far have been on the mild side with current readings sitting 8 to 12 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Moisture embedded in the unsettled westerly flow aloft has allowed for light orographic snow showers to develop over the higher peaks along the Continental Divide overnight. Saturday will see upper level flow shift to the southwest as a trough of low pressure pushes inland across the northwestern CONUS. A 110 knot jetstreak rounding the base of the trough will settle over the Western Slope which will translate to yet another afternoon of breezy conditions.
Models have not had a good handle on this wave, with most solutions keeping activity tied to the higher terrain and foothills. Will have to watch the potential for some freezing precip over the southeast late Saturday night. Lingering snow cover will keep the ground surface temperatures well below freezing.
As the dryline mixes eastward, a low-level thermal ridge will expand eastward with progged 850 mb temperatures of ~20 to 25 deg C. Even so, temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s deg F (which is ~15 deg F above average for mid- April). Otherwise, our brief bout of warmer weather will be coming to an end as the aforementioned cold front advances southward tonight.
Before the moisture gets here, dry dewpoints especially in the east will drive min RH values down to around 20 percent, and even in the high teens.
However, a 50 kt low level jet should be in place by late early tonight, and is expected to interact with a southward moving cold front progged to move through the forecast area this evening. Forcing aided by the low level jet above a low level stable layer will combine with rapidly increasing moisture to spawn elevated thunderstorms within a steep mid level lapse rate regime during the fist half of the night, some which could be fairly strong with heavy rains and possibly some marginally severe hail. High pressure is then expected to press southeast through the Midwest on Saturday. This should bring a return to dry conditions and seasonably cool afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 60s at most locations.
A storm system has organized over the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the state. By Friday evening, the warm front will have advanced to northern AR, meeting the cold front over southern MO. The front will push southward as a cold front, and storms will continue to develop along the frontal boundary as it works its way southward across the state overnight and into Saturday.