Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front that moved through last night has reached the MO/AR border and is helping develop the scattered showers we are currently seeing south of I-70 and east of I-35. Some elevated warmer air is advecting in around 700 mb, which has helped develop a few isolated storms south of our area. Some patchy frost is possible, but right now it looks like it will be pretty dry in the low-levels.
North and northeast winds tonight will remain gusty as a cold front moves through but will diminish after 06z. /issued 239 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ A cold front is currently tracking through the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Much cooler air is currently filtering southward behind the front and low temperatures tonight will be much cooler than last night and below normal. One concern is that the low clouds may persist for much of the afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin.
Forecast builder and SPC HREF guidance both indicated the chances for this freezing rain / sleet mix. Bufkit forecast soundings show a nice warm nose while HREF ensemble precipitation type products show potential for mixing/freezing rain developing by Monday afternoon with this risk continuing into Monday night across southwest zones. Confidence on placement and icing amounts given marginal thermal profiles is low, and some places may go to straight rain for a time Monday if surface temperatures climb above freezing Monday and have a hard time falling back at night.
725 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Warmer weather and occasional rain are expected for the next several days. Swrly flow continues to advect warm, moist air into the region ahead of an encroaching longwave trough/cold front. With persistent warm advection ahead of the aforementioned cold front, seasonably warm temperature can be expected tonight. Rain in association with one region of such enhancement and an advancing cold front is expected to spread area-wide Mon-Mon night. The frontal zone will stall in the region on Tue as sly flow strengthens in response to a strong trough developing in the Upper MS Valley. That zone will waver until a stronger trough approaches and passes late in the week.
Cold front in the northwest part of the forecast area will continue to slowly track southeast overnight stalling south/east of the I-71 corridor towards daybreak.
High pressure remains over the East Coast, stretching as far west as the Tennessee Valley. Being on the western side of the high pressure circulation, our weather will be dominated by fairly strong southerly flow bringing warm, more humid air in from the Gulf of Mexico.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: High pressure dominates the southeastern CONUS this afternoon, and the ridge axis is draped across the southeast from the mid Atlantic Seaboard to the Central Gulf of Mexico. The afternoon dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid 60s in several locations, particularly in the southeast. This surge of moisture will also be concurrent with some of the lighter winds in proximity to the ridge axis. An inverted trough to the NW will put swrn AR and nwrn MS close to some showers, but models so far are holding back. General broad trough dominates the CONUS, with the Gulf states on the edge of the more progressive flow/active pattern.
Cold front currently moving into the far northwest part of the forecast area will continue southeast, eventually stalling near or just south/east of the I-71 corridor later tonight.
The gradient between a large high pressure system over the eastern United States and lower pressure across the Western Caribbean, is driving enhanced northeast to east breezes through the island chain. An inverted trough was identified over east-central Cuba late this afternoon on the last available visibile satellite images. Also, due to the extremely high tides, boaters should lower biminis and antennae, and approach fixed bridges at the safest navigable speed, noting that clearance beneath bridges will be reduced. From synopsis, an expansive high pressure ridge will remain across the eastern third of the United States.
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 (This afternoon through Monday) The cold front will continue to move southward with falling temperatures in its wake due to significant cold air advection. Given the light, generally northerly, winds in the lowest ~1500-2000 ft (within the stratus deck), would anticipate stratus to remain in place though much of the day. Therefore, opted to keep temperatures on the cooler side of the NBM probabilistic data (i. There is a chance if the stratus persists all day, temperatures may even be cooler than currently forecast.
High pressure over the region will keep skies mostly clear tonight but southerly winds will help to keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight than the past couple nights. High pressure remains over the East Coast, stretching as far west as the Tennessee Valley. Being on the western side of the high pressure circulation, our weather will be dominated by fairly strong southerly flow bringing warm, more humid air in from the Gulf of Mexico.
/EC/ High pressure dominates the southeastern CONUS this afternoon, and the ridge axis is draped across the southeast from the mid Atlantic Seaboard to the Central Gulf of Mexico. The afternoon dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid 60s in several locations, particularly in the southeast. This surge of moisture will also be concurrent with some of the lighter winds in proximity to the ridge axis. An inverted trough to the NW will put swrn AR and nwrn MS close to some showers, but models so far are holding back. General broad trough dominates the CONUS, with the Gulf states on the edge of the more progressive flow/active pattern.
The unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midweek, then cool considerably behind a cold front late in the week.
Slightly cooler this afternoon with surface temperatures generally running 2 to 5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Northwest flow aloft will continue through midweek with high pressure situated well to our southwest and broad troughing over the northern tier of the CONUS.
Temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees above normal through much of the work week, however cooler temperatures are forecast by the weekend, with forecast highs on Sunday in the low to mid 80s! High pressure this week will ensure dry conditions persisting with only occasional high clouds or a thin veil of elevated smoke drifting through the region.
816 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 As of early this evening, a cold front was located near a KHRO-KJSV-KDUA line and was slowly moving to the southeast.
The weather across northern Arizona continues to be dominated by the longwave pattern with troughing to the east and ridging to the west.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 55 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 53 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 75 54 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 48 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Temperatures will turn cooler by midweek upon the approach of a weather system from the north. Today through Tuesday Persistent upper level pattern continues through the short term period with Nevada on the backside of a long wave trof which stretches across most of the northern CONUS.
Persistent east- northeast flow rounding the base of the high has been steadily returning moisture to our area, allowing for more cloud cover and slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s, but our northernmost counties could remain in the upper 70s, while we see lows in the 60s tonight.
Today Through Tuesday Night A cold front has dropped SE into the NWRN portion of the CWA early this Mon morning. this front will lift back north as a warm front on Tue. chances for precip will become low as the warm front lifts north of AR.
Low-level baroclinic zone steadily lifts newd through the area tomorrow as low-to-midlevel trof approaches, but persistent cloud cover should limit insolation and warming across much of wrn SD. Fcst soundings suggest at least a brief transition zone of FZRA/IP before a changeover to rain as warmer air overspreads the area from SW to NE. However, have opted to stay on the warmer end of guidance for hourly overnight temps given far from ideal conds for nocturnal cooling, which does keep this activity fairly limited in scope. Given shallow nature of warmer air, higher elevations of the Black Hills may remain as snow through Tuesday morning.
1209 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Radiational fog is developing in the lower lying valleys heading into midnight.
/issued 239 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ A cold front is currently tracking through the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Much cooler air is currently filtering southward behind the front and low temperatures tonight will be much cooler than last night and below normal. One concern is that the low clouds may persist for much of the afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin.
223 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 A cold front approaches tonight, stalling near the Ohio River by Tuesday morning. The front will then lift northward as a warm front Tuesday resulting in a warmer trend through the week. Cold front at 530Z across western Ohio/southern Indiana, will slowly sag into southeast Ohio zones this evening, before briefly stalling out near the Ohio River by the end of the period. Rain showers, associated with the front and associated waves of low pressure moving along the front, and lift aided by low level jet, will slowly overspread the area, mainly staying confined to SE Ohio, northeast KY and areas near to the Ohio River.
Flow aloft will become more southwesterly across the region today, with strong high pressure centered off the coast of the Carolinas building west into the region. With the high aloft wedging itself west and over the region, rain chances will remain confined west of the CWA, along a stalled weak frontal boundary. Look for highs this afternoon to warm into the low and middle 80s.
Overall a fairly tranquil forecast through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the Southeast.
Clouds and precip will keep temps cooler, with 40s in the north and 50s in the south during the day. After the front moves through, it quickly becomes a warm front and lifts back north, pushing any precip into the northern part of the CWA.
At the surface, cold front has pushed well south and west of the forecast area, with widespread stratus with some areas of drizzle and fog present in the wake of this front. Tonight, expect recrudescence of stratus and fog as the low levels saturate and an easterly upslope component returns to the low level flow. Tuesday, stratus should clear out more quickly as lee trough to our west strengthens, enhancing mixing.
Warmer southerly flow from the Gulf is packing an air mass in the southeast US with warm air and moisture. As the low deepens the exit region of the LLJ moves over our area.
Meanwhile Thur PM a strong upper-level jet will serve to deepen the broad cyclonic flow aloft and an assocd cold front will be moving s along the lee of the Rocky Mtns arriving into the nrn CWFA probably before 12Z Fri and then push sw thru the day. As such Fri will be about 15-20 degrees cooler for areas n of Pecos River and 10-15 degrees cooler to the s. The parent surface anticyclone will still remain in the Yukon/NW Territory, but will start to dislodge and move s-se with the help a cold mid-level trof.
A deep layer ridge of high pressure will remain oriented from the Eastern Seaboard and southeastern Atlantic coast to the north central Gulf Coast region through Tuesday. Highs Monday will range in the lower to mid 80s. Highs Tuesday may trend a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. We will keep the HIGH risk of rip currents in place.
High pressure remains over the East Coast, stretching as far west as the Tennessee Valley. Being on the western side of the high pressure circulation, our weather will be dominated by fairly strong southerly flow bringing warm, more humid air in from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will also be climbing each day going, with highs reaching into the low 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be getting warmer each night as well.
Lows this morning are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s, and climb into the low to mid 80s in the afternoon across the region.
/Issued 816 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ As of early this evening, a cold front was located near a KHRO-KJSV-KDUA line and was slowly moving to the southeast.
145 AM MST Mon Oct 19 2020 Temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees above normal through at least the middle of the week with cooler weather arriving over the weekend. High pressure will ensure persistent dry conditions with only occasional high clouds or a thin veil of elevated smoke drifting through the region. Early morning WV imagery depicts a hemispheric longwave flow pattern nearly identical to the past several days with a stationary Hudson Bay vortex coupled with East Pacific Rex blocking.
Slightly cooler behind the front tomorrow. Cooler still as heights begin to fall. Tuesday night will see an increase in mid-upper level moisture across the CWA as the flow turns a bit more westerly in response to stronger front/trough sliding south out of BC.
Then the boundary will stall and then work back to the north as a warm front on Tuesday. In the ext fcst, as mentioned prior, the boundary lifts off to our north as a warm front. A cold front will approach by the weekend, bringing a brief period of shower and tstm activity.
Temperatures a bit warmer over the area. No changes to the High Wind Warnings with the Summit and eastern foothills beginning to blow after 12Z.
The cold front that moved through last night has reached the MO/AR border and is helping develop the scattered showers we are currently seeing south of I-70 and east of I-35. Some elevated warmer air is advecting in around 700 mb, which has helped develop a few isolated storms south of our area. Some patchy frost is possible, but right now it looks like it will be pretty dry in the low-levels. Temperatures Tuesday will range from the low 50s north of HWY 36, to the mid 60s south of HWY 50.
447 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 High pressure over the Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through most of the week. A cold front will push into New England over the weekend. The area will remain between a broad upper trough to the northwest, and a 590 dm ridge off the East Coast. The front will remain nearly stationary just NW of the forecast area owing to a strong 590 dm ridge over the Atlantic holding it at bay.
The bulk of the rain will occur on the cooler side of the front. An area of low pressure along the front will lift northeast across northern Arkansas on Monday and will continue rain chances, mainly over our southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the CWA, where another half inch to inch of rain will be possible. Temperatures will cool behind the front as it moves through this afternoon for those areas not already on the cooler side. Highs should warm back into the 60s and 70s, with the warmer readings south of the front.
400 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Pressures are falling in the Caribbean and a ridge is entrenched in the Mid Atlantic region.
A broad area of low pressure extending from the extreme Northwest Caribbean Sea northward into South Florida will move slowly track westward to near the Yucatan Peninsula, while an expansive Western Atlantic ridge reaches into the Southeast United States and the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, a fairly well developed mid level trough centered in the Bahamas to the archipelago of Cuba will translate westward over the next several days. In wake of the low and mid level trough, high pressure will gradually press southward while weakening, as another broad area of low pressure evolves in the Western Caribbean Sea.
The stratus at KCDS is on the high end of MVFR, and will likely be mostly MVFR (maybe even low VFR at times) into Monday morning. There remains a lot of uncertainty when the low clouds will scatter and VFR return to the terminals, anytime from near or before daybreak to late in the day (if at all). Near the New Mexico border and any other area where low cloud coverage is delayed, there could be a few locations approaching freezing by daybreak. Temperatures will quickly jump into the 80s as southerly surface winds advect warmer air across our region.
146 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 High pressure over the Atlantic will remain dominant feature through most of the week. A cold front will push into New England over the weekend. A longwave upper trough to the west will very slowly approach, and could get close enough to allow for a few brief sprinkles or showers Mon afternoon/night mainly well NW of NYC. The onshore flow will veer more southerly Mon night as the high to the east continues to retreat. The front will remain nearly stationary just NW of the forecast area owing to a strong 590 dm ridge over the Atlantic holding it at bay.
1015 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Inherited forecast is largely on track, with a warmer and more humid overnight period expected.
These conditions will be associated with a slow moving cold front drifting southward. 19z subjective surface analysis indicates a pronounced cold front approaching northwest portions of the state. Mixing has allowed for warmer than normal temperatures across northwest sections of the forecast area late this morning and early this afternoon.
1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 (This evening through Monday) As of the 2 PM hour a strong cold front was entering the northern Big Country. Overnight nows will range from the lower 40s in the Big Country to the mid 50s to lower 60 across the northwest Hill Country. The NAM continues to be much cooler than the other guidance, keeping temperatures in the 50s for most of the day across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area due to thick low level cloud cover and strong cold air advection.
Shallow cold frontal boundary along the Pecos Valley will retreat ewd aft 18Z as sfc lee trough develops.
Late summer in mid October pattern continues early this week as low level southeast flow combines with a weakness in the 500 mb ridge that moves across south Texas today. Despite this weak trough. moisture is concentrated in the low levels with mean relative humidity around 20 percent between 800 and 400 mb. but this pattern is one that can produce quick up and down showers from late morning through early afternoon in the lower and mid Valley which would include both Harlingen and Brownsville.
1024 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 (This afternoon through Monday) The cold front will continue to move southward with falling temperatures in its wake due to significant cold air advection. Given the light, generally northerly, winds in the lowest ~1500-2000 ft (within the stratus deck), would anticipate stratus to remain in place though much of the day. Therefore, opted to keep temperatures on the cooler side of the NBM probabilistic data (i. There is a chance if the stratus persists all day, temperatures may even be cooler than currently forecast.
335 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Regional surface analysis shows shallow cold front presently hung up in the terrain of extreme southeast OK and stretching across northern AR.
Stalled frontal boundary is located roughly along the lower Ohio River Valley early this morning. By Tuesday morning, precipitation along a frontal boundary will begin tapering down in coverage as said frontal boundary begins to shift poleward as a warm front.
Went ahead and added the Laramie Valley into the High Wind Warning today through 00Z. Temperatures a bit warmer over the area. No changes to the High Wind Warnings with the Summit and eastern foothills beginning to blow after 12Z.
621 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 A cold front approaches tonight, stalling near the Ohio River by Tuesday morning. The front will then lift northward as a warm front Tuesday resulting in a warmer trend through the week. Cold front at 530Z across western Ohio/southern Indiana, will slowly sag into southeast Ohio zones this evening, before briefly stalling out near the Ohio River by the end of the period. Rain showers, associated with the front and associated waves of low pressure moving along the front, and lift aided by low level jet, will slowly overspread the area, mainly staying confined to SE Ohio, northeast KY and areas near to the Ohio River.
632 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area. Strengthening upper ridge over the Southeast will allow temperatures to climb to a few degrees above normal into the mid 70s north to near 80 south. With the strato-cu clearing early this morning it appears that we should have greater solar insolation across the area compared to yesterday in addition to higher 500mb heights with the ridge building. While high pressure hangs on, the development of a coastal trough as well may lead to increased low clouds once again, although there is considerable uncertainty amongst short range guidance. Lows will be warmer, mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Mid and upper level ridging over the southeastern states will weaken through mid-week.
Cooler temperatures by the weekend with a slight chance of showers over the mountains. Broad ridge centered over the eastern Pacific extends into NorCal providing clear skies and persistent dry and warm weather.
/Issued 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020/ Regional surface analysis shows shallow cold front presently hung up in the terrain of extreme southeast OK and stretching across northern AR.
/issued 400 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020/ Pressures are falling in the Caribbean and a ridge is entrenched in the Mid Atlantic region.
There may be a brief period of freezing rain early this morning through 9 am across the Flathead valley, the Seeley/Swan valley and highway 2 from Essex. Warmer air will move into northwest Montana and along the continental divide later this morning lifting snow levels to above 6000 feet.
628 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 (Today and tonight) Cooler conditions will remain across the area for this afternoon. Expect highs to be in the lower 60s across the Big Country. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected across areas near Interstate 10.
947 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 A cold front approaches tonight, stalling near the Ohio River by Tuesday morning. The front will then lift northward as a warm front Tuesday resulting in a warmer trend through the week. Cold front at 530Z across western Ohio/southern Indiana, will slowly sag into southeast Ohio zones this evening, before briefly stalling out near the Ohio River by the end of the period. Rain showers, associated with the front and associated waves of low pressure moving along the front, and lift aided by low level jet, will slowly overspread the area, mainly staying confined to SE Ohio, northeast KY and areas near to the Ohio River.
The lower pressure in the Caribbean in combination with ridging along the CONUS east coast is producing fresh to strong northeast breezes over the islands and coastal waters. The broad area of low pressure over the area will slowly progress westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula.
Expect these conditions to continue through the period as a cold front moves slowly through northern Arkansas. Today Through Tuesday Night A cold front has dropped SE into the NWRN portion of the CWA early this Mon morning. this front will lift back north as a warm front on Tue. chances for precip will become low as the warm front lifts north of AR.
As the region warms up to above freezing we may see a transition to rain or a snow/rain mix before moving out of the region this afternoon. Later Tuesday, the upper trough over the region lifts out to the northwest and flow becomes more zonal.
322 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2020 The Hudson Bay vortex hand analyzed on 19/00Z H500 map will be forced northward over the next 24 hours by upstream energy rotating through the large gyre of low pressure covering much of NOAM. The high level cloudiness may have something to say about this and confidence not high enough to widespread conditions and fire headlines attm.