Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a warm front moves across western and central North Dakota, decided to bump up highs a bit quicker as we are warming a little ahead of schedule. Brief ridge of high pressure will be found across the region today bringing mostly dry conditions and mainly clear skies. The brief ridge breaks down tonight and brings dry northwest flow aloft. A clipper system and its associated cold front will approach the region Saturday.
1201 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 18Z TAFS A very tropical airmass is being lifted by an inland advancing warm front this afternoon resulting in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorm activity that will continue largely unabated through the TAF period. The warm front will continue to lift north into northern portions of the forecast area today before advancing back to the south this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms get going.
True warm front remains south of our southern most zones this morning with this feature not expected to move much further north before it gets shunted south once again late this afternoon/overnight as a cold front moves into our region from the northwest. Widespread areas of fog, some dense in places has developed across most of our region this morning but look for vsbys to improve in the wake of the cold front which as of 15z was located just to our northwest. Did not touch temperatures for now as we should warm just a few more degrees areawide ahead of the cold front.
The warm front will continue to lift north into northern portions of the forecast area today before advancing back to the south this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms get going.
1124 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Strong gap winds have developed behind the cold front through Guadalupe Pass. /issued 343 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/ The first of several cold fronts to affect the area the next seven days is currently moving through the area bringing modest northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures. An associated upper level trough dropping into the desert southwest will quickly move east into New Mexico today that will increase lift and precipitation chances tonight and early tomorrow for southeastern New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the lower Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings in southeastern New Mexico show cooling throughout the column so the precip type will favor snow as opposed to freezing rain or sleet as surface temps near freezing, however QPF amounts will be very light anyway so nothing more than a light dusting should be expected.
1124 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Batch of stratocu behind the cold front will affect portions of eastern Kansas early this morning. Clouds will increase, especially across southern Kansas, late Saturday in advance of the southern stream upper low which will move out across the southern high Plains.
153 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 High pressure dominating the Pacific Northwest through the Rocky Mountains, with an upper level low cutting east/southeast through Arizona and into New Mexico.
251 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Upper level low pressure will track across the Southern Plains from NM to OK tonight through Saturday night. This will drive a fairly strong cold front southeast through the area Saturday night. Ahead of the cold front expect a very mild day Saturday with H85 temps in the 8-10C range and westerly downslope flow. Went with the warmest guidance/90th percentile for highs due to favorable downslope flow, mainly clear skies and deep mixing promoting warmer air aloft mixing to the surface. Winds though will increase Saturday night as the cold front crosses the area.
420 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 High pressure dominating the Pacific Northwest through the Rocky Mountains, with an upper level low cutting east/southeast through Arizona and into New Mexico.
353 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Temperatures tonight and the potential for freezing fog over the west will be the main short term forecast challenge. A cold front completed moving through the CWA today.
The threat of urban/small stream flooding or even some flash flooding will also occur generally south of I-10 this evening where there is the highest potential for localized heavy downpours and training storms. This low, in combination with an upper level low moving in from the Four Corners region, will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region beginning in the early morning hours on Saturday through Saturday night.
515 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 High pressure in the central Plains will extend across much of the Midwest and lower Ohio River Valley early in the weekend.
Given the juxtaposition of the high and recent trends with the blended guidance, have skewed low temperatures and dewpoint values to the 10th percentile of the guidance envelope. The biggest question mark pertaining to fog is the timing of the ridge passage and the onset of return southwesterly flow through the lower troposphere. Saturday looks to be seasonably warm--forecast highs in the upper 50s versus the normal highs in the upper 40s--with high clouds increasing late in the day/night as the upper low approaches.
Upper level northwest flow will be in place over the area tonight and into the day Saturday, with a trough sliding over the Northern Plains Saturday night. At the surface, we will be situated between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south tonight and Saturday. The warmth will be short lived however, as a cold front will slide across the region Saturday night, bringing much cooler air with it. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower to mid 20s.
A dry weak cold front currently extends through southeast Illinois into far west Kentucky. The center of the high will drift east across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys through the day Saturday.
623 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the desert sw and a trough in the upper Great Lakes. The trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning moves quickly east by this afternoon.
722 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 High pressure in the central Plains will extend across much of the Midwest and lower Ohio River Valley early in the weekend.
526 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Upper level low pressure will track across the Southern Plains from NM to OK tonight through Saturday night. This will drive a fairly strong cold front southeast through the area Saturday night. Ahead of the cold front expect a very mild day Saturday with H85 temps in the 8-10C range and westerly downslope flow. Went with the warmest guidance/90th percentile for highs due to favorable downslope flow, mainly clear skies and deep mixing promoting warmer air aloft mixing to the surface. Winds though will increase Saturday night as the cold front crosses the area.
643 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the region tonight, then high pressure will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
The main frontal push/boundary was shifting acrs eastern IL into IN ATTM, with ridge lobe upstream acrs the west central plains and into northern MN and western Ontario.
A weak cold front crossing the region Saturday should shut off the strongest gap winds around Livingston and the western foothills by early afternoon.
Afternoon water vapor imagery depicts positive tilted troughing extending from Ontario through the Great Lakes and into the midwest. A compact upper level low continues to rotate across the southwest CONUS with increasing southwest flow with Pacific origins extending across the southern plains and into the Tennessee valley. The surface reflects general high pressure across much of the Tennessee valley while a weak surface wave continues to provide a focus for showers and embedded thunderstorms across the lower Mississippi river valley. Continued moistening of the lower atmosphere will occur overnight, however, recent model soundings depict a dry sub-cloud layer below 800mb. The increase in cloud cover should keep overnight lows a bit warmer than climatology.
302 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Scattered cirrus clouds continued to stream across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon in the wake of a weak dry cold front that moved through this morning. A low pressure system.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring dry conditions and cold overnight low temperatures to northwest California through this weekend.
Otherwise, a cold front will swoop down from the Midwest overnight, bringing colder air and clearing skies to our northwest counties where lows are expected to drop into the mid 30s. Clouds will likely linger all night across the rest of the area where lows will be warmer in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Temperatures tonight and the potential for freezing fog over the west will be the main short term forecast challenge. A cold front completed moving through the CWA today.
High pressure will remain in place through the first part of the weekend.
This afternoon through Saturday night Issued at 255 PM MST Friday Nov 27 2020 The low cloud deck is in the process of dissipating, starting from the axis of the far west valleys, and working its way toward the foothills of the surrounding mtns at the time of this writing.
Aloft short wave trough extending from the Hudson Bay to the Ohio Valley will transit the region overnight. This could be the focus for a wave of low pressure and precipitation later beyond the short term period.
/Issued 302 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/ Scattered cirrus clouds continued to stream across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon in the wake of a weak dry cold front that moved through this morning. A low pressure system.
534 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Water vapor channel imagery shows a closed low along the Arizona / New Mexico border, moving eastward toward the area. The closed low isn't particularly strong and won't be effective at tapping substantial moisture, but modest moisture advection and isentropic ascent will occur and a band of precipitation will move into our far southwest counties by morning. Low-levels are quite dry and will take time to saturate, so the shallow low-level inversion with sub-freezing temperatures should mix out before precipitation begins in western Oklahoma. Models remain fairly consistent with track and strength of this closed low, with perhaps a slight northward shift per GEFS mean, and slightly less anomalous.
358 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the central Plains with weak trof across the Dakotas. Upper level ridge located over the northern Rockies. Upper trof/surface cold front crosses the western Dakotas Saturday night.
319 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Upper level northwest flow will be in place over the area tonight and into the day Saturday, with a trough sliding over the Northern Plains Saturday night. At the surface, we will be situated between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south tonight and Saturday. The warmth will be short lived however, as a cold front will slide across the region Saturday night, bringing much cooler air with it. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower to mid 20s.
Gusty north winds will subside over the next 24 hours as high pressure moves into the area. Analysis this afternoon shows that winds continue to subside across the region due to the exiting upper level low pressure system.
224 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Water vapor shows a bowling ball of a cut off trough taking its time moving eastward through New Mexico. Dry air and subsident flow on the north side of this trough will keep conditions dry across our forecast area through tomorrow. Slight ridging will develop over our CWA tomorrow between the aforementioned trough and another trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. Warmer 700 mb temperatures associated with this ridge will lead to high temperatures increasing 5 to 10 degrees above today's highs. The only thing that may keep temperatures slightly cooler is the snow cover. Since temperatures continue to be slightly cooler than forecast over the snow cover across the plains, highs were lowered 2 to 3 degrees there.
241 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating south to southeast flow aloft across southern Colorado, as an upper low is currently spinning across the east central Arizona and west central New Mexico border at this time. Otherwise, mainly clear skies are in place across the region, with current temperatures in the 40s across the plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, save for 20s at the peaks.
212 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the central Plains with weak trof across the Dakotas. Upper level ridge located over the northern Rockies. Upper trof/surface cold front crosses the western Dakotas Saturday night.
1020 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Upper level low pressure will track across the Southern Plains from NM to OK tonight through Saturday night. This will drive a fairly strong cold front southeast through the area Saturday night. Ahead of the cold front expect a very mild day Saturday with H85 temps in the 8-10C range and westerly downslope flow. Went with the warmest guidance/90th percentile for highs due to favorable downslope flow, mainly clear skies and deep mixing promoting warmer air aloft mixing to the surface. Winds though will increase Saturday night as the cold front crosses the area.
High pressure over California will result in sunny, mild days and clear, cool nights through the weekend.
1021 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the central Plains with weak trof across the Dakotas. Upper level ridge located over the northern Rockies. Upper trof/surface cold front crosses the western Dakotas Saturday night.
246 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Clouds will increase, especially across southern Kansas, later today in advance of the southern stream upper low which will move out across the southern high Plains.
An upper level low centered in New Mexico will move east into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles throughout the day today. As the low drifts east tonight areas from St.
258 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 The main forecast foci are the cold frontal passage late tonight and the midweek brief cool down.
308 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Northwest flow is in place at all levels this morning with the upper trough axis shifting east of the area.
1000 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 High pressure dominating the Pacific Northwest through the Rocky Mountains, with an upper level low cutting east/southeast through Arizona and into New Mexico.
WAA associated with a thermal ridge ahead of the front will bring maximum 850 mb temperatures to 9 to 10 degrees Celsius. Cloudless skies combined with the thermal ridge will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region, 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
(This evening through Saturday) Water vapor channel imagery shows a closed low along the Arizona / New Mexico border, moving eastward toward the area. The closed low isn't particularly strong and won't be effective at tapping substantial moisture, but modest moisture advection and isentropic ascent will occur and a band of precipitation will move into our far southwest counties by morning. Low-levels are quite dry and will take time to saturate, so the shallow low-level inversion with sub-freezing temperatures should mix out before precipitation begins in western Oklahoma. Models remain fairly consistent with track and strength of this closed low, with perhaps a slight northward shift per GEFS mean, and slightly less anomalous.
Clear skies, calm to light winds and subfreezing temperatures are owing to a frosty start. Relatively benign weather is expected in the short term, as the service area will remain positioned in between the northern stream wave progressing toward the Upper Midwest and the southern stream closed low shifting eastward into Oklahoma. Southwest winds will be increasing today as the high pressure ridge shifts to the east. A rather strong cold front is slated to approach late tonight. As a result, the trend of a little warmer with the lows continues with a general range from around 30 to the mid 30s.
Gusty southwest winds will result for Saturday, and should bring highs into the lower 50s. As a cold front and upper level short wave move through the region today. High pressure will then move into the region from the west behind the upper level short wave tonight. Southwesterly winds return Saturday as the high pressure moves southeast toward the Ohio River Valley. The dry air and high pressure will keep skies clear Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 40s.
1044 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the region tonight, then high pressure will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 43 60 41 46 / 0 0 80 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 38 60 41 47 / 0 0 50 90 30 Oak Ridge, TN 60 38 59 41 46 / 0 0 50 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 33 60 41 49 / 0 0 20 80 40.
Gusty north winds will subside over the next 24 hours as high pressure moves into the area. Evening satellite imagery showing the low pressure that brought breezy conditions and cooler temps to the area is now centered over west central New Mexico. Lows in the Las Vegas valley will drop into the 30s with some spots potentially seeing near freezing values as winds come down overnight. Saturday is looking pretty quiet with temps a hair warmer than today, clear skies, and breezy afternoon winds down around Lake Mohave. Analysis this afternoon shows that winds continue to subside across the region due to the exiting upper level low pressure system.
1114 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Water vapor channel imagery shows a closed low along the Arizona / New Mexico border, moving eastward toward the area. The closed low isn't particularly strong and won't be effective at tapping substantial moisture, but modest moisture advection and isentropic ascent will occur and a band of precipitation will move into our far southwest counties by morning. Low-levels are quite dry and will take time to saturate, so the shallow low-level inversion with sub-freezing temperatures should mix out before precipitation begins in western Oklahoma. Models remain fairly consistent with track and strength of this closed low, with perhaps a slight northward shift per GEFS mean, and slightly less anomalous.
241 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s. High pressure was currently centered over south central Kansas. Temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs mainly in the 50s.
334 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Minimal weather to discuss this weekend with high pressure overhead keeping conditions sunny with slightly above average temperatures.
1115 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 High pressure in the central Plains will extend across much of the Midwest and lower Ohio River Valley early in the weekend.
1238 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the desert sw and a trough in the upper Great Lakes. The trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning moves quickly east by this afternoon.
1033 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the region tonight, then high pressure will build into Pennsylvania this weekend.
204 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Early This Morning: Persistent light southwesterly winds are holding overnight low temperatures in the lower 30s, with more sheltered valley regions dropping into the 20s. Warmer air has continued to advect eastward tonight and by 12Z, we'll likely see 925 mb temperatures moving past the 90th moving average and towards the max temperature running average. Barring any impact from high lvl cirrus this afternoon, have trended temperatures towards (and above in some areas) the highest model numbers which would result in 50s and even 60s.
High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and dry conditions early in the forecast period.
217 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 02Z water vapor imagery showed a cutoff upper low over NM. At the surface, weak high pressure was centered over southern KS with the better surface moisture shunted south along the gulf coast. Tonight should see increasing high clouds as the upper low over NM moves out across OK and northern TX. But it will hing on enough moisture lifting north of the upper low and the operational consensus is to keep any QPF just south of the forecast area. Lows tonight should be a little more mild ranging from the lower 30s north to the middle 30s south.
A few high clouds tonight across northern zones as a weak trough approaches from the west. An easterly wind in the Snake Plain will limit fog potential to the lower Treasure Valley.
1041 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 Currently - A weak ridge across Florida is responsible for light east northeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. This reflects the fact that the lower through mid level ridge is aligned nearby. Weak ridging will remain across Florida through the overnight period. Because of the higher surface moisture and some room for growth, will maintain slight chance for showers.
Those winds were swinging around to southwest across the region as surface ridging moves east.
252 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Lift from the upper low is beginning to push into the FA with a southeast expansion shown on WV imagery. As temps continue to cool to near freezing on the Caprock there should be a more steady change over to snow. The change over to snow will mostly depend on surface temps and how quickly/close they get to freezing. Precip will decrease from west to east through the day as the upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle with precip expecting to end around midnight area wide. Wraparound precip does not appear to be an issue as the low passes to our east tonight, but a few flurries/sprinkles can not be ruled out. Some cloud cover is expected behind the low which will help to keep temps slightly warmer.
1050 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating south to southeast flow aloft across southern Colorado, as an upper low is currently spinning across the east central Arizona and west central New Mexico border at this time. Otherwise, mainly clear skies are in place across the region, with current temperatures in the 40s across the plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, save for 20s at the peaks.
High pressure over the central Plains will build eastward into the Ohio River Valley today, providing abundant sunshine and southwesterly winds. Due to continued southwesterly boundary layer flow, lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 30s.
349 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Fairly dry and breezy day expected today out ahead of an approaching cold front and clipper system. Dry westerly flow aloft ahead of the cold front looks to mix down this afternoon and bring fairly dry and warm conditions. Cold front then looks to push through this evening bringing more breezy winds to the area. The lack of confidence comes in the timing of the front as the highest pressure rises are in the early evening. Here winds will also be on the border of criteria while afternoon RH values dip into the low 20s. Post frontal type day looks to be found on Sunday with breezy westerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
608 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Today, maximum temperatures should be in the low to mid 40s across much of our area, with the warmest temperatures in our southern counties. Sunday, a low pressure system is expected to bring snow showers to the Northland, mainly in the Arrowhead and along the south shore of Lake Superior. This upper level ridge is expected to bring warmer maximum temperatures today. These temperatures are expected to mix down to the surface, raising highs into the low to mid 40s. These mild temperatures won't last long as a deepening trough in Canada moves through southern Ontario. A cold front will move through the Northland and lower temperatures back into the 30s for Sunday, and could potentially bring snow showers as well.
Skies will be sunny today before clouds increase Sunday ahead of a strong low pressure area.