Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
115 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 Cold high pressure will build across the area through mid-week, then warmer weather will develop late week. Strong Canadian high pressure, centered over the Tn Valley, will build east towards the region overnight. Dry, cold air advection will drive temperatures down into the low to mid 30s, with a few areas near the NC/VA border flirting with the upper 20s. Freeze Watch for Cumberland, Wayne and Sampson Counties Wednesday Cold, Canadian high pressure will build over central NC through Wednesday night. Winds will be light during the day, but will still create wind chills ranging from the low 40s in the NE to the upper 40s in the SW.
Southwesterly winds have increased across the high country as well where some gusts to around 35 kts have been noted at MYP. Upper ridge axis shifts eastward as a progressive Pacific trough moves through the western U. Winds increase across the high country overnight but stays confined to higher areas with gusts approaching 50 mph by morning across the higher peaks and passes. Should be another mild night for the lower eastern slopes given deepening lee troughing and westerly drainage winds. Breezy southwest winds will spread down into the lower elevations on Wednesday with critical fire weather conditions developing along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains by late morning/early afternoon. Across the adjacent plains winds will increase to around 25 mph in the afternoon as the lee trough kicks eastward in response to energy crossing the Rockies to the north.
VFR conditions and southwest winds around 8-12 knots are then expect on Wednesday as this ridge shifts further east with time. Skies will go mostly clear overnight with winds going near calm towards sunrise as ridge axis will be overhead. High pressure will quickly move east Wednesday allowing for return flow of warmer air, combined with mostly sunny skies, should get highs in the low to mid 40s.
255 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Upper ridging is over the central part of the country and will shift a little east by this evening. Temperatures today are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 70s.
1058 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Area of mid/high clouds on the eastern edge of the upper ridge will continue to push east and break up some as we head into this evening. Fairly zonal upper flow will prevail across the northern CONUS through the period, with some low amplitude troughing by the end of the period.
1200 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Stronger south to southwest boundary layer/surface flow will develop across central/eastern Kansas to the east of the deepening lee side trof on Wednesday. Wind speeds will flirt with or exceed advisory criteria over much of the area, with the highest confidence along/either side of the Kansas turnpike corridor.
316 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 Strong, cool and dry Canadian high pressure will build across the area through the mid-week period, with the high's center settling across the region Thu and continuing well into the weekend.
The pressure gradient relaxes today as high pressure slides further east into the area. Northerly flow continues though due to the position of the high so temperatures will still be on the cooler side, around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Models have really been struggling with dewpoints as they have been on the high side. Tonight, high pressure continues to drift eastward and northerly flow eventually becomes southerly after midnight. This will allow temperatures to be a few degrees warmer compared to those forecast for this morning.
157 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 The surface pressure gradient will increase today across the Midwest between the departing high pressure center across the Ohio River Valley and a developing trof of low pressure to the lee of the Rockies.
330 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 Large area of high pressure over the Ohio River Valley continues to provide clear skies and below average temps across the CWA through the period. Winds expected to become more easterly this afternoon as the high pressure pushes eastward.
We extended the warning into Missouri than our what typical Red Flag Warning RH values would suggest, but with the high winds and grass being the main fuels we think they will dry out quickly today.
1234 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 A cold front will move offshore this evening. High pressure will build into the region from the Ohio Valley Wednesday, then will become centered over the Carolinas through the end of the week and over the weekend.
It will also bring warmer temperatures today to the areas where strong low level inversions limited temperatures yesterday.
344 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure will extend across our region through the rest of the week.
929 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure will build into the region from the Ohio Valley today, then will become centered over the Carolinas through the end of the week and over the weekend.
Winds will remain from the southeast at 5-10 mph with 15 mph gusts today, but even with sunny skies and a southern breeze, temperatures will only make it to the low to mid 50s for most. Temperatures will fall to the low to mid 30s over the eastern half of our CWA and to the mid 30s to near 40 over the western half of the CWA as warm air tries advecting up the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. On Thursday strong high pressure will be centered over VA/NC as a cold front arcs from Hudson Bay through the upper Great Lakes to the Desert Southwest.
/Issued 330 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020/ Large area of high pressure over the Ohio River Valley continues to provide clear skies and below average temps across the CWA through the period. Winds expected to become more easterly this afternoon as the high pressure pushes eastward.
620 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure will extend across our region through the rest of the week.
Today and Tonight: High pressure centered across the Ohio River Valley will drift slowly eastward this afternoon. At the same time, a low pressure system will slide from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, while dragging a cold front across the northern Plains. Highs today will be a bit warmer, reaching into the mid 40s for most locations. Thursday: The aforementioned low pressure system will slide into northern Ontario by Thursday afternoon as the cold front passes through northeast Wisconsin. Otherwise, winds will continue to gusty ahead of the cold front, but to a lesser extent as the core of strong winds aloft shift off to the east.
With high pressure in control both sfc/aloft and basically no low-level moisture noted on forecast soundings/time-height sections, expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. High pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley this morning and stretches from the Great Lakes to the northern gulf coast. As the ridge moves east the flow will become more onshore which will warm and moisten the area through the end of the week and into the weekend.
625 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure will cover much of the Mid Atlantic and southeast United Stated through the end of the week. Long wave trough over the eastern United States moves offshore today as upper ridging builds over the southeast. Stayed close to warmer MAV guidance for afternoon highs. Valleys will decouple this evening with a sharp drop in temperatures after sunset, but the temperatures on the ridges will become steady late. A frontal boundary draped across the Ohio River Valley will try to creep in from the north as a result of an upper level trough digging into the Great Plains.
A large area of high pressure will remain in control of weather across the Tennessee Valley today. The low level wind field from the south or southwest should pick up a bit due to the tightening pressure gradient. Increasing warm air advection along with winds around 5 mph should provide warmer overnight lows across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Currently, high pressure remains located over the Mid-South. Current temperatures have dropped to freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will recover quickly once the sun comes out and are expected to reach into the lower to mid 60s for highs. On Thursday, fire danger concerns will increase as low relative humidity values will occur once again, but this time will be combined with increasing southerly winds over the area as high pressure shifts east.
Will cancel the High Wind Warning to account. 09z surface analysis had low over northeast MT with warm front into eastern NE and lee trough into eastern WY. Gradient remains in place across the south as lee trough shifts east during the day. Gusty westerly winds will continue most of the day south of I-90 and over the higher terrain. Thermal ridge peaks today with potential temperatures in the 70s. Tonight/Thursday, upper ridge breaks down allowing a cool front to sink through CWA bringing gusty northwest winds at times and lower temperatures.
558 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 Strong, cool and dry Canadian high pressure will build across the area through the mid-week period, with the high's center settling across the region Thu and continuing well into the weekend. High pressure continues for the next 36 hours with plenty of sunshine with minimal to no cloud cover. Lows tonight is the main story this forecast period with some of the coldest lows of the fall season with readings forecast to be in the upper 20s inland to near the freezing mark along the coast. Frost is likely for many locations, as well as freezing temperatures that will potentially bring damage to sensitive outdoor plants such as late season blooming flowers. 500mb ridge just to our south through the period and forecast to become elongated west to east.
Warmer temperatures will be the main message for today and tomorrow. some deterministic solutions near 60 for the southern valley but will keep the cooler solution with increased cirrus expected. A trough moves across the Devils Lake basin in the late afternoon, with winds beginning a shift to westerly flow. Timing of associated precipitation and surface temperatures will dictate p-type for the afternoon hours, however for the daytime period low confidence for FZRA with sfc temperatures right around freezing.
359 AM MST Wed Nov 18 2020 Trough over the PacNW will drift NE into Canada today and push its associated cold front into northwest Utah this afternoon and into southern Utah by midday Thursday.
Winds in that area could gust to around 40 mph as the low level jet mixes down from mid morning to around Noon as shown by RAP13 model SFC wind gust forecast.
with temps in the low 30s to low 40s. some areas in the higher terrain across the NWRN counties have seen elevated winds. These areas have seen temps remain warmer in the mid to upper 40s.
Light to moderate precipitation continues to spread southeast along the cold front into central California. Higher resolution CAMS indicating a relative lull, more isolated shower activity, across the lower elevations early this morning.
High pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley this morning and stretches from the Great Lakes to the northern gulf coast. As the ridge moves east the flow will become more onshore which will warm and moisten the area through the end of the week and into the weekend.
The unseasonably strong high pressure ridge centered to our south, but extending through the southern tier states has already started to flatten out in response to a deep Pacific trough nudging southward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Despite the flattening ridge, heights aloft will remain toward the upper end of climo for the period allowing temperatures to only drop off 1-3F from the previous couple days.
604 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 Skies vary from mostly clear in the Lower Keys to mostly cloudy elsewhere along with strong northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph with occasional gusts near 30 mph. A strong and expansive western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Southeast United States and the Sunshine State today, will slowly retreat eastward and gradually sever by early this weekend.
648 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure will build into the region from the Ohio Valley today, then will become centered over the Carolinas through the end of the week and over the weekend.
333 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 A dry and rather uneventful short term is shaping up for the region as high pressure prevails across the southern U.
A rather slow-moving closed upper level low pressure system spins along the coast of British Columbia this morning.
233 AM MST Wed Nov 18 2020 09z surface analysis had low over northeast MT with warm front into eastern NE and lee trough into eastern WY. Gradient remains in place across the south as lee trough shifts east during the day. Gusty westerly winds will continue most of the day south of I-90 and over the higher terrain. Thermal ridge peaks today with potential temperatures in the 70s. Tonight/Thursday, upper ridge breaks down allowing a cool front to sink through CWA bringing gusty northwest winds at times and lower temperatures.
Upper level trough centered off the west coast will gradually shift inland with several embedded disturbances moving through the region as the larger scale trough lifts into western Canada by Thursday. First disturbance and associated cold front moved through the area overnight with showers mainly affecting areas near the continental divide.
508 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 The surface pressure gradient will increase today across the Midwest between the departing high pressure center across the Ohio River Valley and a developing trof of low pressure to the lee of the Rockies. The favorable wind direction should result in most locations topping out in the lower 70s! The current forecast is around the 75th percentile of all the guidance and one could argue to go higher (90-95th percentile) given past performance (verification) of these same conditions this fall season.
328 AM MST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure ridge axis will be shifted east of Montana as a broad trough moves onto the Pacific Northwest coast today and across the northern Rockies Thursday. Pressure gradients will tighten along the Upper Yellowstone and Stillwater Valleys later this morning as lee- side troughing will develop. In addition, a cold front will move across the forecast area tonight and this will allow for some higher winds aloft to mix down ahead of the front today. Highs today will be well above normal with 50s to lower 60s for the lower elevations.
405 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 Relatively cooler and drier conditions will remain over the region through the next couple of days with high pressure in control over the southeast. Conditions will start to moderate for the end of the week into the weekend as this high shifts out into the Atlantic and more easterly winds bring in some additional moisture.
By daybreak, expect winds to turn more southerly, with breezy conditions forecast to continue throughout much of the day as mid level ridging amplifies to the west and a tightening SPG moves overhead the region.
The low humidity and recent lack of rainfall will continue to raise concerns for fire danger, but given the expected light winds, will keep the threat level limited in the HWO.
A dry and rather uneventful short term is shaping up for the region as high pressure prevails across the southern U.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A mid-level ridge across southern Texas will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term.
/issued 353 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A mid-level ridge across southern Texas will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term.
/issued 405 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020/ Relatively cooler and drier conditions will remain over the region through the next couple of days with high pressure in control over the southeast. Conditions will start to moderate for the end of the week into the weekend as this high shifts out into the Atlantic and more easterly winds bring in some additional moisture.
A cold upper level trough progressing into the Pacific Northwest will generate showers and isolated thunderstorms today through tonight. The shower activity will come to an end by midday Thursday as high pressure builds into the area.
841 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 Lake effect snow showers come to an end this morning with high pressure pushing into the region. Temperatures remain cold than average today, but trend warmer Thursday and really warm up for the weekend with broad ridging building in. By late afternoon, high pressure/ridging will slide eastward into the area through the day, however with cold NW flow still coming across the lakes, the low clouds will not clear till around sunset. High pressure will be overhead tonight with clear skies, light winds and perfect conditions for efficient radiational cooling. Warm air advection overnight Thursday along with some intermittent cloud cover will keep overnight lows at or above freezing across the region.
336 AM MST Wed Nov 18 2020 09z surface analysis had low over northeast MT with warm front into eastern NE and lee trough into eastern WY. Gradient remains in place across the south as lee trough shifts east during the day. Gusty westerly winds will continue most of the day south of I-90 and over the higher terrain. Thermal ridge peaks today with potential temperatures in the 70s. Tonight/Thursday, upper ridge breaks down allowing a cool front to sink through CWA bringing gusty northwest winds at times and lower temperatures.
For this reason, we have favored the warmer solutions of model guidance which puts much of the area in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer on Thursday across our western CWA given the warmer 850-mb temperatures and relaxed surface pressure gradient. We have again favored the higher spectrum of guidance for Thursday.
519 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 (Today and tonight) Sunny and breezy today as the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to lee side troughing beneath the upper level zonal flow. With the low clouds returning tonight, lows temperatures should only fall into the lower 50s.
Strong high pressure over the Ohio River Valley ridges south into the eastern Gulf of Mexico producing gusty northeast winds around 20- 25 knots with higher gusts.
511 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 (Today and tonight) South winds will continue to increase today as western trough takes shape and pressure falls occur across the high Plains.
The good mixing plus the ridge aloft will help pull warmer air into the region today with near record highs in some places. High pressure skirts the area on Thursday with light winds. Temperatures will be cooler due to cloud cover, but most of the cold air advection will be limited to North Dakota.
/issued 255 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020/ Upper ridging is over the central part of the country and will shift a little east by this evening. Temperatures today are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 70s.
Our stretch of quiet weather will continue through the short term as high pressure remains in control across South Texas. Light northerly winds this morning will veer to the east and southeast throughout the day which will allow our highs to to reach the low 80s today across our inland areas. Persistent onshore flow will keep us roughly 5-10 degrees warmer tonight. Our warming trend continues tomorrow with highs a couple of degrees warmer than today. The high risk may be extended through Thursday.
Much drier and cooler air has settle over the mid-state behind yesterday's passing front. SFC/LL high pressure will remain in control well through the weekend, as well as upper ridging which builds later today. Later Sun we will get our first chance of precip in several days as a cold front moves to near the MS river valley ahead of decent upper trough toward days end. A few showers may sneak into our northwest counties in the late afternoon but it will be Sun night before deeper moisture/more widespread showers spread across the mid-state with passing cold front/upper trough. Showers will linger into early Mon afternoon across the plateau, but SFC/LL high pressure/upper ridging will move rapidly in behind Mon night. EURO slower but more aggressive with deeper trough and frontal boundary than the GFS.
Strong high pressure north of the area will lead to developing NE winds that will increase to 15 to 20 mph across much of the interior and up to 20 to 25 mph along the coast this afternoon. Today's max temperatures will be a little cooler than average for this time of year, with highs in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows ranging from the 60s along the coast to mid to upper 50s across the interior as an elevated low level onshore flow persists across the region.
some cooler air moves in behind a cold frontal passage. This will cause high temperatures to be about 10F to 12F cooler compared to Wednesday but still above normal with readings in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures fall into the low to upper 30s.
Early morning satellite imagery with 500mb heights and surface obs showed an upper level ridge across the Upper Midwest, with southeasterly surface winds and temperatures still in the 30s. On Thursday a weak cold front will move through.
This should give way to SKC later today with high pressure still the dominant sfc feature, albeit more to our NE at this time. /Today through Thursday/ The trend of dry and seasonable weather will continue during the short term with high pressure anchored to our NE across the Ohio Valley. This will result in winds gradually veering more SE today with temperatures climbing back into the lower to mid 70s again for afternoon highs. /Thursday Night through Wednesday/ By Thu Night, upper ridging will dominate from Central Mexico east northeast into the SE U.
The initial round through midweek will bring warming temperatures with breezy conditions, followed by cooler weather and breezes once again for the end of the week.
The highest precipitation totals will remain in the Sierra Nevada north of Tulare county. Yesterday was a dry and unseasonably warm day across our area as we waited for a slowing cold frontal system to work its way through the region. This is also bringing snow to the Sierra zones where snow levels are currently above 8000 ft, but expected to lower to around 7000 as cooler air moves in. By the time the precip tapers off later this afternoon, there should be as much as 6-12 inches of snowfall accumulation in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Besides some Valley rain and Sierra snow, the frontal system will bring in cooler air, and our highs today will be several degrees lower than yesterday, topping out right around normal during the afternoon.
315 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Sunny skies and above normal temperatures are once again expected today as high pressure aloft remains centered over the area.
/Issued 315 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020/ Sunny skies and above normal temperatures are once again expected today as high pressure aloft remains centered over the area.
On Thursday we will see even warmer temperatures with downslope effects boosting daytime highs.
1105 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure to our west will slide closer and then sag southeast into the Carolinas on Thursday.
A couple of weak troughs will push a cold front into northern Utah this afternoon and into southern Utah by Thursday afternoon.
1252 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure to our west will slide closer and then sag southeast into the Carolinas on Thursday.
The high pressure responsible for the dry conditions will slide east towards the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in winds gradually shifting from easterly today to more southeasterly by tomorrow. This ridge is bringing a rather dry air mass also into the forecast area. High pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley this morning and stretches from the Great Lakes to the northern gulf coast. As the ridge moves east the flow will become more onshore which will warm and moisten the area through the end of the week and into the weekend.