Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
815 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Old frontal boundary situated across south central GA should begin to push northward tonight in response to a cold front moving into the Mississippi River Valley. The cold front should remain well west of the CWFA until later in the day Thursday. There are some timing differences with the cold frontal passage between the NAM and GFS. Thursday will be a little complicated, because the highest pops will be centered around the two boundaries, the approaching front in the west and the old stationary front across eastern GA. The chances for precip will begin to increase quickly from the west late Thursday afternoon/early evening as convection along and ahead of the cold front approaches the area.
As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from around freezing across west central Kansas to low 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to range from the low 50s across central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.
The low centered over southern Kansas will continue to pull away to the northeast tonight. The northern TX and OK Panhandle will likely clear out last as the center of the low will still remain fairly close in proximity tonight.
Weak dryline/cold front is moving across northeast Oklahoma at this time, and the potential still exists for a few strong to severe storms east of this boundary over the next few hours.
1059 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure system centered over southeast KS.
1006 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure exits tonight.
506 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Issued at 310 MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Flat ridge shifts east tonight with dry and cool conditions holding in place.
726 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure exits tonight.
(Tonight through Thursday evening) As a cold front crosses the region, shower coverage should increase some overnight, with the highest rainfall amounts found over interior portions of Humboldt and Del Norte counties. With the resultant increased cloud cover, low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night, with near seasonal values expected.
544 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure system centered over southeast KS.
Thunderstorms have shifted east of northwest Arkansas late this evening with cold front. Over the past hour, scattered convection has developed ahead of the cold front, which as of 930 PM had pushed a little east of I49. Some wrap around showers associated with upper low moving across eastern KS could affect parts of northeast OK later tonight, with breezy W-SW winds persisting through the night in many areas. Weak dryline/cold front is moving across northeast Oklahoma at this time, and the potential still exists for a few strong to severe storms east of this boundary over the next few hours.
1028 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The pressure ridge extending through the forecast area tonight will be off the coast Thursday. Moisture will return Thursday with a developing onshore flow and warm front just to our south.
Latest GOES water vapor imagery showing closed low churning through the OK/TX panhandle. cloud cover and precipitation were keeping temperatures down in the lower/middle 40s. Our area will be on the northern periphery of precipitation associated with the low. Light rain/drizzle chances linger through Thursday and possibly into Thursday night east of the Mississippi River as the area remains in weakening stretched deformation axis associated with the closed low moving off through the Ohio River Valley.
Proton Previous Discussion: Near short-term discussion through Thursday: Nearly zonal flow aloft over Montana tonight turns more from the southwest early Thursday morning in response to a strong upper- level trough moving over the Pacific Northwest states. Model agreement is excellent in keeping temperatures above freezing throughout this event.
657 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Water vapor imagery clearly illustrates the upper low rotating over central/eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, with ample moisture streaming northward into the area. Temperatures will lower into the low/mid 30s tonight, with lower 40s to lower 50s common for highs. Lingering clouds across the southeast one half of MPX forecast area should remain due to moisture/cyclonic flow from the departing upper low.
This rain is associated with lower level moisture and support from the upper low across KS.
The upper low responsible for the precipitation has been moving through Kansas today and will continue through the night. As the low moves further to the east, the precipitation should become a little more spotty during the evening.
525 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Upper low is centered over south central Kansas with large plume of mid-upper level moisture across NW Kansas. Ridge is building into the Central Rockies with axis of subsidence extending from the Nebraska Panhandle across central Colorado. This afternoon-Thursday morning: As upper low transitions eastward we should see a continued downward trend in rain coverage and intensity, however at least through the afternoon hours additional showers may develop as large scale forcing linger. Guidance shows showers lingering in our east through late tonight ending by 12Z as upper low final exits the region and ridging builds aloft. Cooler air mass lingers in our east, while southerly flow east of lee trough begins to bring WAA to our west.
1043 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Mean layered ridging persists across the Florida Keys. A formidable mid latitude cyclone sliding east through the southern Plains will carve out lower heights across the northern Gulf and southeastern United States overnight and Thursday. Our resident ridge complex will concede real estate and slide east into the western North Atlantic. The low level gradient will tighten, resulting in freshening southeast breezes, especially late tonight through Thursday night. Broad high pressure will remain north of the Florida Keys overnight and Thursday.
Minimum temperatures should be similar if not a degree or two warmer considering warmer highs today. Column does cool slightly so max temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than today.
1035 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Upper low is centered over south central Kansas with large plume of mid-upper level moisture across NW Kansas. Ridge is building into the Central Rockies with axis of subsidence extending from the Nebraska Panhandle across central Colorado. This afternoon-Thursday morning: As upper low transitions eastward we should see a continued downward trend in rain coverage and intensity, however at least through the afternoon hours additional showers may develop as large scale forcing linger. Guidance shows showers lingering in our east through late tonight ending by 12Z as upper low final exits the region and ridging builds aloft. Cooler air mass lingers in our east, while southerly flow east of lee trough begins to bring WAA to our west.
Light and variable winds ahead of the next cold front will allow patchy fog and low clouds to develop late tonight, especially at HRL and BRO. Winds shifted to the north fairly quickly, which has kept temperatures from exceeding the lower 90s this afternoon. Tonight, a weak cold front associated with low pressure in the Central Plains will move through the area early Thursday morning with patchy fog possible along the coast where moisture may recover ahead of it. During the day temperatures will be near normal for late March with highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s.
A large upper level trough with embedded closed low pressure area over north central Oklahoma will advance eastward over the central and southern Great Plains tonight and approach the Mississippi River on Thursday.
1044 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The upper level low presently located over Kansas will move only slowly eastward overnight, becoming situated over eastern Missouri by Thursday afternoon. Soundings suggest that saturation in the dendritic layer over that area will be iffy at that point, so confidence is not that high, and any impacts would be minimal anyway with surface temps remaining above freezing. Otherwise, Clouds will linger in the east on Thursday, where highs will only be in the lower 40s. Back to the west where more sun is possible, looking at highs in the lower to mid 50s. The low affecting our southeast zones in the near term will be shifting off further to the east by Thursday night.
A powerful low pressure system, spinning over OK/KS this afternoon, will move eastward through Thursday night.
1046 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The pressure ridge extending through the forecast area tonight will be off the coast Thursday. Moisture will return Thursday with a developing onshore flow and warm front just to our south.
1246 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Scattered showers across the area will become more numerous overnight and Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the southern plains. Thunderstorms are also possible Thursday and Thursday night as the low moves through.
High pressure will drift eastward from the Bahamas and also move east off the mid Atlantic coast. This will allow low level flow to veer to the south with high temperatures into the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and in the upper 80s for the interior.
Will see a tranquil weather pattern through much of the TAF period with a ridge of high pressure slowly sliding east of the region. As the ridge continues to exit the area on Thursday.
A closed low will then move into the central part of the country by the end of the day, suppressing the ridge a bit and generally lowering its influence over Florida. Overall, there should be enough suppression from the ridge to keep rainfall out of the forecast and temperatures will remain on the warm side, just a bit cooler at the coast. Upper level ridging sits along the eastern seaboard as an upper low over Missouri and associated troughing moves eastward.
919 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 A large upper low continues to make slow progress across the forecast area at this time. The low is currently centered just east of McPherson. Wrap around showers on the backside of the upper low have diminished some, as moisture transport on the north side of the low has decreased some. Expect the upper low to continue to make slow progress into ern KS and wrn MO late tonight into early thu morning, with a possible up tick in the wrap around showers by around 09-12z/Thu as moisture transport on the north side of the low increases again. So will keep likely pops going for this light precip for the overnight hours, especially across Central KS as the upper low slowly makes its way east.
1143 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 A large upper low continues to make slow progress across the forecast area at this time. The low is currently centered just east of McPherson. Wrap around showers on the backside of the upper low have diminished some, as moisture transport on the north side of the low has decreased some. Expect the upper low to continue to make slow progress into ern KS and wrn MO late tonight into early thu morning, with a possible up tick in the wrap around showers by around 09-12z/Thu as moisture transport on the north side of the low increases again. So will keep likely pops going for this light precip for the overnight hours, especially across Central KS as the upper low slowly makes its way east.
A cold front continues to slide through Metroplex terminals and will continue eastward through the evening hours. /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ An upper low continues its steady eastward march across the Southern Plains this afternoon, bringing showers and storms to the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. The upper low will continue east tonight, dragging a cold front southeastward through the area. The front should sweep southeast through the entire area by Thursday morning, bringing cooler and drier air to the region.
This fog developed last night in the wake of the yesterday's cold front which has returned back inland as a warm front. Rain chances will also buoyed with the ap- proach/passage of a second stronger cold front this afternoon.
Moisture has surged back into South Texas overnight with dewpoints back into the low to mid 70s along the coast. The cold front that moved through yesterday retreated qucikly back into the region overnight as a warm front and is responsible for the increasing moisture. Next cold front will be approaching the area today. Initial trough/wind shift will push through by mid-day. A modest drying of the lower levels will occur behind this initial boundary, but stronger push of high pressure and drier air will occur this evening. Much drier air is anticipated, with cooler temperatures by Wednesday morning. Cooler temperatures will continue Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
A cold front moving through overnight will bring moderate northerly winds overnight. Moisture has surged back into South Texas overnight with dewpoints back into the low to mid 70s along the coast. The cold front that moved through yesterday retreated quickly back into the region overnight as a warm front and is responsible for the increasing moisture. Next cold front will be approaching the area today. Initial trough/wind shift will push through by mid-day. A modest drying of the lower levels will occur behind this initial boundary, but stronger push of high pressure and drier air will occur this evening. Much drier air is anticipated, with cooler temperatures by Wednesday morning. Cooler temperatures will continue Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Low-level moisture axis supporting clouds as far west as Indiana should slowly erode as clouds work through the southeast half of the CWA and dewpoints fall into the low 40s by this aftn. Uncertainty increases markedly by Wednesday as the large cyclone to the west nudges east and an elongated shear max propagating through the eastern periphery of the trough lifts through the area. Lower static stability supports potential for deepening low pressure to foster a blossoming precip shield overhead. With no airmass change from Tuesday, increased clouds and potential for rain suggest max temps in the low to mid 50s. Maturing cold conveyor will finally push through the forecast area Wednesday night as the low is shoved into Quebec by the continued surge of Pacific jet energy.
A dry cold front moving through the area will be preceded by westerly winds gusting 15-25 knots by mid-day becoming light northwesterly by early evening. /issued 356 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper trough passing eastward across the southern Plains today through tonight will drop a dry cold front through the forecast area today. West winds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts will precede the cold frontal passage with northwesterly winds dropping to around 10 mph after frontal passage. A few of the more sheltered areas could see temperatures dip to the freezing mark before sunrise.
High pressure building over the region will maintain dry weather conditions and temperatures near seasonal averages today.
Flow in the lower atmosphere will be more out of the northwest today with significantly lower speeds as the core of stronger winds aloft shift over southern New Mexico and exit out across west Texas. A cold week is in store as a deep upper level trough ushers in the coldest air of the season today.
High pressure is moving eastward off the mid Atlantic Coast this morning and the axis of the high pressure is beginning to tilt over northeast to southwest across the Florida Peninsula. Winds are out of the southeast near 20 knots at the C-MAN station south of the Island Chain and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, showing the tilt in the ridge axis.
generally 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible over the higher locations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 61 66 38 / 30 90 100 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 60 68 41 / 50 90 100 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 58 66 41 / 40 90 100 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 56 65 39 / 80 50 100 40 TN.
403 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016 Large broad trough was covering most of the western 2/3rds of the country this morning. a large upper level low over the Great Lakes is forecast to lift northeast with broad northerly flow aloft transitioning northwesterly.
1017 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 A warm front will lift through the area today. An area of low pressure will move across the area Wednesday with a cold frontal passage Wednesday night.
Currently, stacked low pressure remains centered over far southeastern ND early this morning, with precipitation bands continuing to rotate around the storm across the Dakotas underneath a waning TROWAL.
The pump will already be primed from the departing disturbance, and rich Gulf moisture should easily spread inland through the afternoon and evening as an effective warm front moves northward. 87/Grantham We will end the week dry and cool as high pressure sets back over the region.
527 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 Ongoing stagnant storm system spinning north of the forecast area near the lower Red River Valley will be primary focus through the next 24 hours. Thus have introduced some patchy freezing drizzle/drizzle into the forecast into this evening, however do not anticipate much additional impact from brief periods of freezing drizzle early this morning. The cool upper low will be moving slowly east from MN into WI Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Most of the rain will fall southeast of the I-71 corridor and then colder air will enter in Wednesday evening behind a cold front. Slightly cooler highs are expected on Wednesday from the mid 50s to low 60s under more cloud cover and weak neutral temperature advection.
For tonight, a cold front will move across the region bringing a reinforcing shot of dry and cool air. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 40s to lower 50s.
For the remainder of the day then, on again off again showery type precipitation for the higher terrain with some continuing accumulations possible though not as great as seen over the last few days.
1015 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 Mrng WX pic shows a Mexican Standoff btwn a large high pres ridge extending from the Canadian Maritimes to Bermuda to the FL Straits, and a well dvlpd storm system centered over the Upr Midwest with a cold front extending down the Appalachian Chain into the Deep South. The Atlc ridge will dominate the WX pattern over the next 24-36hrs as it maintains a deep/steady southerly flow acrs the region. Given the standoff btwn the Atlc ridge and the continental trof, there is little to no prospect that low/mid lvl steering winds will back enough to allow any of these to push onshore.
653 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 Warm front continues to lift northward and VLIFR conditions mainly east to west through the ELA/CXO/DWH/IAH/6R3 corridor with improving visby to the south. As the cold front pushes into the area may get one last squeeze to help development of showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid afternoon for IAH/HOU. This fog developed last night in the wake of the yesterday's cold front which has returned back inland as a warm front. Rain chances will also buoyed with the ap- proach/passage of a second stronger cold front this afternoon.
The upper level low to the west will push a cold front through later today with a warm front moving northeast ahead of the front. The low level moisture along with warmer temperatures could allow east texas and Central louisiana areas to see severe weather later today mainly hail and wind. The next weather maker will be another trough of low pressure out of the Pacific northwest that will move into southwestern US.
A cold front will move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the pre- dawn hours of Wednesday, producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of Deep South Texas.
/issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/ There is an upper low centered west of the Great Lakes this morning with a trough extending southwestward to Mexico. As this trough moves east will get some brief ridging before a secondary trough moves down the West Coast. This will come around to the NW tonight when the upper trough pushes a cold front through the area. There is uncertainty in the models as how the West Coast trough will turn out. Some models show the trough progressing across the area while others develop it into a cut off low to the west.
Cannot rule out convection at ELD/SHV as well, but the remaining sites should remain dry as a cold front arrives later this evening into the overnight hours. The upper level low to the west will push a cold front through later today with a warm front moving northeast ahead of the front. The low level moisture along with warmer temperatures could allow east texas and central Louisiana areas to see severe weather later today, mainly hail and wind. The next weather maker will be another trough of low pressure out of the Pacific northwest that will move into southwestern US.
An upper low just east of the Four Corners this morning has brought much drier and colder air into Arizona. In addition, some wrap around showers associated with upper low are currently affecting far northeast Arizona. Both these areas should dissipate later this morning as the low continues to move eastward. Surface winds will become north or northeast today behind the low, ending the last several days of strong and gusty southwest winds.
Back edge of the steady light rain is approaching the high terrain of WV/PA/MD.
a very broad upper level trough covered much of the country with the exception of extreme east and west coast. As the trough deepens and moves slowly east today. will start the morning with low probability of rain and then increase this afternoon and continues to remain elevated into tonight as the next cold front moves across the area during the overnight period.
Given the extensive cloud cover and the low overhead, diurnal warming will be stunted, but readings will still be well above climatological normal. Forecast concerns deal with a cutoff upper low expected to form in the desert southwest this weekend, and move slowly eastward. MVFR and IFR ceilings will prevail through the period under the influence of the low pressure center overhead.
The low has begun to gradually drift to the east and should take a southeast trajectory to near Alexandria by mid afternoon. This slow transition will limit the best snowfall accumulations once again to about the Highway 281 corridor and west, where a second round of 1 to 3 inches is possible by 00Z Wednesday. Light snow is expected to continue through noon Wednesday, with only minor accumulations, however if the lower layers of the atmosphere do not dry out and end precip, there is a chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle expanding north to south during the afternoon hours.
/Issued 421 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/ Satellite imagery showers broad upper level trough centered over the Dakotas, with cold air in place as far as the west side of the Rockies down to the OK/TX Panhandles and along the Mississippi Valley. This would require significant precipitation aloft to get the evaporative cooling down to the surface, and model soundings just don't show moisture making down to the lower levels. Winds will shift out of the north this afternoon 10 to 20 mph as the colder air with the trough digs further south. By Wednesday evening the upper level low will pull over the Great Lakes and a more zonal but still cool flow will take place over the southern CONUS.
641 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough over the Plains with a low centered over the eastern Dakotas. Tonight, Dry slot of mid-upper low moving across the area should ensure dry conditions across much of the forecast area under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Min temps will range from the low 30s over interior west to the mid to upper 30s near the Great Lakes. By that time, cooler air will begin to move in aloft which may allow some snow to mix in with the rain at times over the far west late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night.