Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Slightly stronger winds just off the surface will lead to elevation dependent breezier conditions, focused mainly through the Buffalo Ridge area. The moderation in temperatures continues with lows on Wednesday night in the 20s and highs on Thursday a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday.
Drier and cooler conditions are expected today in the wake of yesterday's cold front with high temperatures in the 70s. This will cause tonight's low temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than this morning and range from the mid 50s across the Lake region to the mid 60s along the East Coast.
1220 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 A cold front will move across the region tonight then high pressure will return through Thursday.
1054 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Latest satellite imagery is showing that the back edge of the low cloud have made it to the Mississippi River. Have trended toward the cooler guidance tonight. With ample insolation expected, have trended toward the warmer guidance. With southerly to southwest flow continuing Wed night, as well as cloud cover spreading north as the next system approaches, have trended warmer for Wed night. Will need to watch for freezing overnight as temps drop into the 20s. While trends have been cooler, going forecast may be too warm thru Sat. The operational ECMWF has an interesting solution for this entire system with a much stronger clipper which then develops into a cut off upper low.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored in eastern Colorado. ECMWF is also kinematically much weaker, with a much weaker open trough (as opposed to a 538 dm closed low near Canadian, TX yesterday). High confidence in increased clouds, increased north winds, and cooler temperatures Thursday as the trough passes.
1008 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 After one cold day on Wednesday, weak high pressure will bring a dry, milder day on Thursday.
1126 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Snow showers will continue tonight with a crossing trough.
353 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will be centered south of the forecast area today. The high will be off the Southeast Coast Thursday. Moisture will increase in an onshore flow on the backside of the high Thursday. A warm front will also develop in the region.
Nudged toward the HREF as it kept highs a little cooler than the consensus blends but still in the 30s. At 12Z Thursday a longwave trough will be set up from Canada through the Dakotas, and down through western Mexico. At the surface, low pressure over the arrowhead of MN/southern Ontario will be dragging a cold front across the forecast area and to our south by late morning/early afternoon. A brief ridge will build in for the afternoon hours.
This is likely accounting for the slightly warmer temperatures in this area verses across C LA where there is less cloud cover. The high pressure will continue to move east tonight, and be centered over southern Alabama by Wednesday morning. Per WPC, there is a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday, with a corridor of the highest threat extending southwest to northeast across our region.
Low level southerly winds also is bringing up warmer air from the south with snow levels rising to 4000-5000 feet except the Methow Valley where occasional light snow continues to fall. Westerly flow and cold advection aloft should destabilize the lower atmosphere to get gusty winds to mix to the surface. The well mixed atmosphere will also promote mild temperatures with latest MOS numbers around Wenatchee and Ephrata in the low 50s which would be near record highs for New Year's Day.
Dry and seasonably weather is expected through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. Around midnight, expect temps across the Las Vegas valley to range from the mid 30s to the low 40s. Thursday through this weekend will be dry as we sit under weak upper level ridging.
Front is anticipated to reach central KS early in the evening but stall somewhere about half way across the forecast area until upper trough gets closer.
Snow-free portions of the area may approach 40 degrees this afternoon, but areas with significant snow cover may struggle to even rise above freezing. Nevertheless, temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, with highs in the upper 30s and 40s. Slightly better chances for light precipitation arrive on Thursday as the trough pushes through the area. This would likely start off as some light snow followed by light rain/sprinkles in the afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing. 05" of total liquid equivalent precip, but this might even be on the high end.
Dry and warming weather is ahead for the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. A closed low continues to sink south toward the Baja Spur this afternoon. It will quickly move through the Four Corners region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, fusing with the southerly system to form a narrow but deep trough over the central CONUS. Further west though, with some ridging just beginning, temperatures will increase a bit. Thursday should also see some breezes down the Lower Colorado River Valley.
1250 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Low pressure moves northeast through southeastern Canada tonight and will be replaced by building high pressure through Thursday.
Surface ridging moving east early tonight should allow temperatures to drop off quickly. May see some flurries/patchy freezing drizzle over far northern CWA into Wednesday afternoon, but moisture will be lacking and overall forcing is weak. Thursday starts with weakening low pressure riding along Minnesota's international border before heading off northeast.
/issued 254 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level low across Baja California will drift south through Wednesday afternoon.
205 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure brings tranquil weather through tonight.
Sfc winds will veer to SW New Year's Day and remain elevated, especially over SE NM as an upper trough moves thru the area. /issued 254 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ The last full forecast package of 2019 concerns itself with the evolution of a progressive closed low now over the southern half of Baja California Norte. This low is expected to slowly translate east over northern Sonora tonight and early New Years Day before phasing with a short wave trough responsible in part for the atmospheric river event over the Pacific northwest. This in turn will carve out a long wave trough over the central third of the CONUS Thursday.
212 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 After one cold day on Wednesday, weak high pressure will bring a dry, milder day on Thursday.
For Wednesday, sunny skies to envelope the first half of the day but eventually will give way to increasing clouds from the WNW as a trough of low pressure approaches the region. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
101 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure to the south will provide dry weather and increasing sunshine today.
833 PM PST Tue Dec 31 2019 A low pressure system to our south will continue to bring partly cloudy skies and gusty easterly winds this afternoon.
1007 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 A weak area of high pressure will slide across the area overnight and off to the southeast Wednesday. With the area of high pressure off to the southeast Wednesday, the winds will swing around to the south and start to push some warmer air back into the area.
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
1035 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Currently - A cold front continues to bleed southward across South Florida and the Keys. However, due to the high dew point temperatures, a few patches of low stratus have been present across the Keys, but most have pushed past into the Straits. Short Term Update - High pressure spreading eastward across the gulf states will maintain light mostly northerly breezes across the Keys. This relatively cool drying flow will push dew points down into the lower 60s by sunup, and temperatures will nose into the upper 60s. High pressure spreading eastward across the gulf states will maintain gentle mostly north breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
A cold front is then forecast to move through KGUY and KDHT Wednesday evening with winds becoming north behind this boundary. This low is expected to kick out well south of the area as northern stream jet streak moves southeast from Pacific Northwest. Thus, upper troughing will become more evident across the Rocky Mountains through tomorrow night. At the surface, enhanced lee troughing will begin overnight tonight in response to uptick in cross barrier component aloft.
320 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Some sun possible this afternoon - Rain possible late week/weekend --Some sun possible this afternoon-- A ridge will be over Michigan today and the subsidence associated with it can be seen via the latest ir loop. Southest winds will push warmer air toward the Great Lakes and highs today will climb into the mid 30s with mid 40s expected Thursday.
This jet will dig a trof into the central CONUS through the end of the week. Temperatures have warmed into the middle 40s in places like Jordan and Winnett, but cooler air is still hanging tough in some of the valley locations with temperatures remaining in the 20s and 30s. It is a complex scenario with ambient air temperatures around 5 or 6 degrees C above freezing in the warm nose aloft, but very dry air is in place. This corresponds to a wet bulb temperature below freezing everywhere, though the reality is we will likely see a mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet until this dry layer can become fully saturated. As temperatures fall back below freezing late Wednesday, we will see another round of some light snow with once again less than an inch of snow expected.
A weak trough moves through the Rockies Wednesday night and onto the Plains on Thursday.
Valleys will see mostly rain with pockets of freezing rain in Baker Valley and near Ontario. As the cold front pushes in late Wednesday snow levels will drop once more, but precipitation at this time is forecast to be isolated in higher elevations leaving valley locations dry.
347 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
1044 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Low pressure moves northeast through southeastern Canada tonight and will be replaced by building high pressure through Thursday.
Light winds will become southwest after midnight as the next upper trough develops across the Rockies. Winds should become gusty out of the southwest by Weds afternoon as low pressure deepens across southeast CO. Highs should reach into the low to mid 50s given winds/mixing and sunshine.
313 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will be centered south of the forecast area today. The high will be off the Southeast Coast Thursday. Moisture will increase in an onshore flow on the backside of the high Thursday. A warm front will also develop in the region.
Temperatures are going to be an issue, as they have already dropped to around zero in a few of the cold spots of far north central WI, but will likely rebound if/when the low clouds arrive. The 20Z MSAS surface analysis showed a broad area of low pressure over extreme southeast Ontario. A modest ridge of high pressure stretched from the central Plains north-northeast into southern Canada. The ridge of high pressure is expected to move into the western Great Lakes region tonight, bringing mostly clear skies, a diminishing west wind and a cold night to the forecast area.
242 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
/issued 835 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this evening. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 50s. A cutoff upper level low will deepen off the Western Mexico Coast resulting in a highly amplified pattern across the Western US and strong Southwest flow over the Midsouth.
The approach of an upper trof on Wed, will bring increasing moisture to mainly western areas, and snow is expected to move into the Continental Divide around midday and increase thru the afternoon. By evening about one to three inches of snow accumulations will be possible over the higher elevations of the Sawatch and Mosquito Mountains.
High pressure continues to build over the region into Wednesday and departs to the east Thursday.
1112 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Low clouds continue to wrap around upper level low over the Great Lakes. As the system lifts out to the northeast, the low clouds should as well. High pressure moving in from the west will bring dry and sunny conditions for New Year's Day. In the upper levels, a low off of Baja and is forecast to move southeast and become absorbed by a trough swinging out of the northern Rockies by early Thursday. The energy moving across Mexico will increase the low level jet to allow moisture to move up toward our area.
Looking at the larger picture, water vapor imagery shows a well- developed upper low spinning along the Baja while strong jet energy is nosing into the Pacific Northwest.
1148 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Had several reports this evening of lake induced freezing drizzle, especially across the highlands of northern lower Michigan.
As the big low pressure system to our north pulls off to the east, we should see the drier air from the west/southwest push into the region. Lows should cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s across the region. Highs will range from the lower-mid 40s over the Bluegrass region, with mid- upper 40s over southern Indiana and across the rest of central and south-central Kentucky. Wet weather looks to return on Thursday as a rather large upper level trough digs into the central CONUS, allowing warmer air and GoM moisture to advect northward into the lower Ohio Valley.
Continued the low chance pops for a mix of light rain and snow across northwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon as the system approaches. Warmer temperatures Wednesday as westerly downslope winds will help highs reach the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Not seeing much signal for precipitation in the models and will continue to keep pops on the low side.
On Wednesday a strong cold front will arrive during the afternoon, delivering a chance of snow showers to portions of northeastern Arizona Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect much warmer temperatures by the weekend.
An area of low pressure that in part brought wet weather over this region a couple of days ago continued to move NE-ward over eastern Canada. This storm system exiting the continent, and high pressure building eastward from eastern Texas will continue a dry trend for the Tennessee Valley. As of 8 PM, some locations such as near Ft Payne have already cooled to near freezing, while other locations were in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Conditions will remain dry with warmer daytime highs reaching the lower 50s. The ridge will finally push east and southwesterly flow aloft will really start to pull moisture back into the region. A series of disturbances will slide in ahead of the approaching trough and produce showers starting late Wednesday night and become widespread by Thursday morning.
311 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Low pressure will continue to move northward through the Canadian Maritimes today. A weak ridge of high pressure passes south of our region on Thursday with above normal temperatures expected.
208 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 A cold front will move across the region tonight then high pressure will return through Thursday.
1213 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 After one cold day on Wednesday, weak high pressure will bring a dry, milder day on Thursday.
Tranquil weather conditions will continue today into tonight as a weak west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains, not to mention a much drier air mass in the lower levels settled throughout the region. Well above normal temperatures can be expected today as a prevailing southwesterly flow enhances marginal warm air advection into the high plains of western Kansas. Should see lows down into the 20s(F) tonight as a cold front begins to push into western Kansas late overnight.
1221 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Surface maps show high pressure in control at the surface to start off the new year.
Tranquil weather conditions will continue today into tonight as a weak west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains, not to mention a much drier air mass in the lower levels settled throughout the region. Well above normal temperatures can be expected today as a prevailing southwesterly flow enhances marginal warm air advection into the high plains of western Kansas. Should see lows down into the 20s(F) tonight as a cold front begins to push into western Kansas late overnight. ECMWF is also kinematically much weaker, with a much weaker open trough (as opposed to a 538 dm closed low near Canadian, TX yesterday). High confidence in increased clouds, increased north winds, and cooler temperatures Thursday as the trough passes.
252 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will be centered south of the forecast area today. The high will be off the Southeast Coast Thursday. Moisture will increase in an onshore flow on the backside of the high Thursday. A warm front will also develop in the region.
301 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure builds south of the region through Thursday.
310 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Low pressure will continue to move northward through the Canadian Maritimes today. A weak ridge of high pressure passes south of our region on Thursday with above normal temperatures expected.
309 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 After a few morning snow showers, building high pressure should return dry weather to the region today.
1230 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s tonight.
Weak winds up to 10 mph are expected to quickly increase by sunrise as a lee trough deepens southeastward towards Kansas in the afternoon. Mid level clouds are going to increase from the northwest as a broad, mid level trough shifts eastward towards the region this evening through Thursday.
524 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 After a few morning snow showers, building high pressure should return dry weather to the region today.
Look for rain to overspread the area starting late tngt and esp on Thu, as the lower atmosphere bcms further saturated, and upper dynamics/lift bcm maximized.
Winds will continue to shift to the to the SW today as H85 WAA brings warmer temps into the area. Quiet weather in the short term period as WAA brings warmer air to the area.
The upper trough will dig across the central to southern Rockies.
With strong high pressure off the coast, the door will remain open for weather systems moving in from the north. Some of this high cloudiness will linger over the area through the day. Winds will be generally light through this morning then a cold front will bring gusty northwest winds to northern Inyo and southcentral Nevada this afternoon.
Temperatures particularly in the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain still expected to creep above freezing today, warm enough for this afternoon to introduce a mix or brief change over to rain. Additionally, as temperatures drop below freezing tonight, this could be problematic for especially untreated roadways.
551 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Surface ridging will build into the region later today and Thursday, then low pressure lifting out of the southern plains will track northeast into Pennsylvania late in the week. Lingering light upslope snow over the Allegheny Plateau will slowly diminish today from south to north, as surface ridging builds in and inversion heights fall. Mixing down model 900mb temps yields expected highs today ranging from around 30F over the northwest mountains, to the low 40s over the Lower Susq Valley. High pressure centered off of the southeast coast will bring fair and mild conditions tonight and Thursday. Expect increasing clouds Thursday as Gulf of Mexico moisture streams north along southerly low level jet at interface of anomalous upper trough over the plains and upper ridge off the east coast.
The colder air mass that overspread the area in the wake of the weekend cyclones will shift off to the east as modified Pacific air sweeps east across the Plains and into the area. That will result in warmer temperatures. Surface temperatures tomorrow should reach/exceed freezing across the entire area when the highest PoPs (still only around 25 percent) occur.
Accumulations are expected to be light, but with the potential for snow or freezing rain, this could lead to slick driving conditions across Northeast Montana especially during the overnight hours when temperatures drop below freezing.
705 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
414 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Zonal flow is expected today and have leaned more toward CONSRaw as it has performed best lately, which will generally keep cooler temperatures over our snow-covered areas, lowering temps from the previous forecast by a few degrees for highs today. I prefer to go closer to the warmer MET guidance also, as sky cover should aid toward temps staying in the 25-30 degree range. An amplifying trough digs over the Plains Thursday/Thursday night, and I have backed off of chances for precipitation as the best support will be split to the north and south as it looks now.
A cold front will shift winds to the north overnight tonight starting with KGUY at 04z, followed by KDHT around 07z and lastly coming through KAMA around 10z.
523 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 VFR ceilings are in place across the region, but as the low-levels slowly saturate, MVFR ceilings are expected later this morning for the I35 sites. Temps today will be mostly within 10 to 12 degrees of the morning low, but clouds should dissipate from west to east Thursday to allow for some nice warming into the low 70s over western counties.
Slightly Warmer and Dry. Highs today will be very close to usual early January highs, with lows tonight likely warmer than usual.
Temps today will be mostly within 10 to 12 degrees of the morning low, but clouds should dissipate from west to east Thursday to allow for some nice warming into the low 70s over western counties.
At the same time, the influence of surface/boundary layer moisture advection and low level waa westerly mixing winds working down to the ground even across the eastern portion of the CWA should have high temperatures warming to above freezing today, with some low 40s not out of the question across the higher terrain/ridge-top areas of the western CWA zones. Compared to today, most of the forecast area looks about 3 to 5 degrees cooler for high temps on Thursday.
344 AM MST Wed Jan 1 2020 A cold front moves across the region tonight with a slight chance of light precipitation between late this afternoon and mid day on Thursday. A cold front sweeps across the region tonight ahead of a deepening upper trough moving east of the Rockies.
619 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Aviation - Some sun possible this afternoon - Rain possible late week/weekend --Some sun possible this afternoon-- A ridge will be over Michigan today and the subsidence associated with it can be seen via the latest ir loop. Southest winds will push warmer air toward the Great Lakes and highs today will climb into the mid 30s with mid 40s expected Thursday.
A dry cold front will produce a period of gusty winds across the ridge and below the passes in the Kern County Mountains and Deserts Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Notable warm air advection takes place at H85 with temps approaching 4C, which is about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs return to the 30s nearly CWA-wide in the wake of the cold front. This will be mainly driven by mid-level frontogenesis as the main trough axis passes by. Can't rule out a dusting along the Pine Ridge, but not expecting significant impacts.