Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY STILL SHOW THE MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KM. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ARE PUSHING THRU THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER TROF OFF THE WEST COAST. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY DELAY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL PROBABLY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST QPF BY THE MODELS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY, BUT IS DAMPENED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS/RIDGING IN MID LEVELS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, A LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO THE GULF COAST OF LA/MS. WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN THE AL/GA COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
/ISSUED 935 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BUT COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND AT LEAST WEAK OVER- RUNNING AT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD COMBINE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
BUT WITH FALLING PRESSURES AND A LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIDING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODEL FORECAST HIGHS UNDER CLOUD COVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SEEM CORRECT. THE HIGHEST CAPES ARE PROGGED INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E-SE ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER AND DRIER SPECTRUM OF NWP WINDS AND HUMIDITIES /RESPECTIVELY/ WHICH TEND TO PERFORM BETTER IN THESE ARID DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETUPS.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY.
A large trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest Coast is supporting a couple of weather producing features of interest this morning across the region: 1. Weak high pressure moves over the region Tuesday which could be favorable for hard freeze conditions for many locations Tuesday morning. The high pressure will be short lived as a weak system fills in the area.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT WITH THE SAME STALLED BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SOME RIDGETOP LOCATIONS MAY STILL BE SEEING A MIX WITH SNOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL DIRECT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST MILD AND AMPLIFIED FLOW AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
439 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015 THE QUASI-STATIONARY "SLASH" WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING. WARMER AND MORE MOIST TREND AS CXO AND UTS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES (WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED VISIBILITIES) THE LAST FEW HOURS. MORNING LOW OVERCAST AND PATCHY FOG THAT HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO WILL LIKELY LIFT/IMPROVE THROUGH 10 AM AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN TX. LEANS THE FORECAST TO MID TO LATE DAY PARTIAL CLEARING DUE TO MIXING AND HAS MANY SITES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE THAT INCREASES MID TO LATE WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, A LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO THE GULF COAST OF LA/MS. WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN THE AL/GA COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
Lighter winds in the lower elevations could hold the dryline farther west than models are currently showing. Things could get interesting this weekend as models are all showing a deep upper level low moving in from the Pacific, east along the U.
448 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE FL EAST COAST HAS SERVED AS A CONVERGENT AXIS TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. AVBL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MODEST ESE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS TROUGH FEATURE WASHES OUT LINGERING MOISTURE. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GOMEX NEWD ACROSS FL WHILE THE ATLC RIDGE DOMINATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS-NORTH FL FRI NIGHT-SAT FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MINOR RIPPLES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN TEMPS VERSUS THE SHORT RANGE AS THE "PRE-SUMMER" PATTERN KEEPS MAX TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL AND MINS ROUGHLY 2-3 CATS ON THE HIGH SIDE.
143 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. RIDGING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV WILL PUT A LID ON ANY SGFNT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA MONDAY AFTN DESPITE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW/WAA CAUSING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER LAYER SATURATION AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND WARM.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. UNTIL A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CLOSE IN CLOSER ON KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AND NEARS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THIS TREND WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WORKED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVERHEAD THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. NW FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS A FAMILIAR RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN. SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
314 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING AS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL ENTER A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGINS PUSHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO THE WARMING TREND SHOULD BE GRADUAL IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE WARMING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST IS NOW BUILDING INLAND. BUT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING.
1059 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WAS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT A WARM LAYER ALOFT COULD REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES. WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CLEARING OUT SKIES.
401 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015 THE COLD FRONT WORKED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVERHEAD THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. NW FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS A FAMILIAR RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN U.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
456 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
1036 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 CURRENTLY - DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS. WHILE A LONG RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 70. WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST OVER THE COOLER AND DEEPER GULF WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE COMING DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 37 38 22 / 80 90 100 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 35 36 18 / 80 90 100 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 33 34 18 / 80 90 100 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 33 33 17 / 80 90 100 10 TN.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THEN A COOLING TREND WILL ESTABLISH AS A SERIES OF UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WORKED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVERHEAD THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. NW FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS A FAMILIAR RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN U.
WITH A SECONDARY FRONT AND SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FREEZING LINE REACHES JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG AROUND NOON. AND CLEARING SKY COVER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. MODELS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS STARTING OUT AT AROUND 6-7K FEET AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5500-6K FEET DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND SONORA LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
441 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.
226 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
651 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
404 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015 WARM FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 20 REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH. WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH A MIX OF SLEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL RULE THE WEATHER TODAY.
521 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE.
IF SO EVEN WITH WARMER START THAN EXPECTED SINGLE DIGITS MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LONE MODEL WITH QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
526 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.
545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 424 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/ THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WARM FRONT HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK. A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE RESULTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. IT WILL STILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING THE SLEET AND SNOW MIXING IN WITH FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE TEMP PROFILE GOING BELOW FREEZING JUST AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY.
421 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015 SNOW IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN AS THE FINAL SNOW BAND SAGS SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND THE JET ENERGY DEPARTS. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COLD DAY AS THE LLVL THERMAL TROUGH SWEEPS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
929 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
225 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THEN A COOLING TREND WILL ESTABLISH AS A SERIES OF UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER TROF HAS MOVED EAST THIS MORNING WITH A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA DOWNSTREAM FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE ERN PAC. THE ERN PAC RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY INLAND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK GRADUALLY WARMING THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NW. THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROF IS PROGD TO MEANDER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGD TO BLAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN CWA AROUND 03Z-04Z AND S OF LRD TO KINGSVILLE AROUND 05Z-07Z THEN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WIND TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
Strong high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and west coast will dominate the weather pattern through the end of the week and beyond bringing fair skies and well above normal daytime temperatures. A MFR to SAC 5 mb surface gradient and northerly flow aloft ahead of the building ridge is bringing breezy north winds to much of the forecast area this morning. The upper ridge is forecast to shift inland today. Lighter pressure gradients at the surface and aloft will bring lighter winds while increased subsidence brings a little warmer temperatures. Daytime highs will climb to several degrees above normal today and this warming trend will continue through the end of the week as the upper ridge axis settles in over the coast.
916 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE OZARKS THIS MORNING. IT WILL RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ESPECIALLY GIVEN WELL BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
AND PUSH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN. SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES ROUGHLY LITTLE ROCK TO BOWLING GREEN. WE'VE GOT THE FREEZING LINE REACHING MARION COUNTY ABOUT 10Z THURSDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN. IF ONE OF THOSE CONVECTIVE CELLS WERE TO OCCUR WITHIN THE COLDEST (SUB-FREEZING) LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES.
A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW THEN SLOWLY EASING AS THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE JET MAX PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. A 500 MB MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REACHES WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT. BUT MAY BECOME UPWARD BRIEFLY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL WITH MOST OF THE HIGH CIRRUS STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AT A FEW SITES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS WELL. /ISSUED 404 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/ WARM FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 20 REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH. WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH A MIX OF SLEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
550 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015 A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND NW MN AT 08Z. IT WILL PUSH THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR TODAY. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF. COLD AIR SURGES IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN.
BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NOW HEADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS COLDER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WAS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT A WARM LAYER ALOFT COULD REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES. WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CLEARING OUT SKIES.
607 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
601 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT SE COMPONENT TO THE WIND POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
235 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
212 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. /ISSUED 1014 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH UPPER WAVE AHEAD OF IT, MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MIGHT SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 307 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/ ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL PULL AWAY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MILD AND IN THE 50S.