Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front with an accompanying wind shift will impact the KCDS terminal early tomorrow morning prior to the next scheduled TAF. The cold front, and wind shift, are not anticipated to reach either the KPVW or KLBB terminals during this forecast period. /issued 226 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022/ After very brief short wave ridging overhead this evening a short wave trough will approach the area on Sunday setting up a critical fire weather day. This speed max will be juxtaposed with a low level thermal ridge on the caprock during the afternoon before moving east.
There was still enough moisture and a little instability over the mountain ridges for an uptick in the showers the last couple hours, but this should wane later this afternoon. Sunday night, the trough will lift to the northeast of CO with decreasing mid/upper level QG ascent. The best chance of accumulating snowfall over the urban corridor/northeast plains will be in the evening, generally an inch or less with the highest amounts along the Palmer Divide and near the foothills. Another 1-3 inches possible in the high country.
BT High pressure is beginning to move into the area and keep somewhat tranquil conditions for the rest of today and the weekend. That being said, we still stay under cyclonic flow aloft due to a deepening upper low over the 4 corners region that will keep us in unsettled northwest flow. For once, winds will actually behave in the foothills west of Billings as well, as no pressure gradient looks to form, as SE idaho and Yellowstone will lack any centralized high pressure over them.
Temperatures tonight will once again be above normal, with lows in the low to mid 60s, except upper 60s to low 70s along the Treasure coast where onshore flow is stronger.
Chances for showers will continue to occur across the Mid-South during the evening hours, but better chances will likely hold off until the overnight hours as a cold front approaches the area.
The storm system responsible for the strong winds and shower activity today will move away from the area tonight with lighter winds and warmer temperatures expected on Sunday.
254 PM MST Sat Mar 5 2022 High pressure is beginning to move into the area and keep somewhat tranquil conditions for the rest of today and the weekend. That being said, we still stay under cyclonic flow aloft due to a deepening upper low over the 4 corners region that will keep us in unsettled northwest flow. For once, winds will actually behave in the foothills west of Billings as well, as no pressure gradient looks to form, as SE idaho and Yellowstone will lack any centralized high pressure over them.
A cold front will move through the area this evening into tonight. A warm front will move in from the south during the day, with the low moving along that front in the evening. There is still some uncertainty in the exact track of the low and placement of the warm front, but looking at SREF data suggests 250-750 J/kg of MUCAPE along I-44 and 500-1,000 J/KG of MLCAPE south of I-44, with greater potential for surface based convection at points farthest southeast. As colder air moves in behind the system Sunday night, some light snow or freezing drizzle may be possible for a short period of time, but impacts would be minimal/nil given warm ground temperatures and limited intensity and duration of precip.
This morningâs cold front pushed through faster than expected, resulting in a significantly colder day for most of the area. Fortunately, road temperatures are still above freezing across most of the area, but northern portions of the area have seen significant ice accretion (ODX ASOS reported 0. This threat is most prevalent in the advisory area where air temps are already at or below freezing, but some slick spots are possible across the rest of central Nebraska as temperatures fall late this afternoon.
Near normal temperatures through the early part of the week before another trough drops down to bring another chance of snow and below normal temperatures. Additionally a warm nose around 850mb will provide a potpourri of precipitation types with snow and freezing drizzle to the north to rain to the south and mixed precipitation in between. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued due to a mix of snow and freezing rain and a Ice Storm Warning has been issued as portions of northwest WI is expected to have an additional quarter of an inch with locally higher amounts.
High pressure from the west is already suppressing any further isolated snow showers west of Glasgow. General flow pattern keeps some semblance of upper level low pressure in the region, albeit kind of messy.
A polar air mass infiltrated western Montana last night and has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. The cooler air mass didnât make it over into north-central Idaho where Pierce is sitting at 51 degrees as of 1 pm PST.
The low pressure system that brought today's showers and storms moves out to the northeast tonight with dry air behind the cold front helping the soggy conditions subside. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 30's due to breezy northwesterly surface winds.
Light isolated showers will increase this evening across the area as a cold front moves from the Plains into northwest Arkansas this evening.
The first remains across western and central portions of SD in assoc with an upper lvl trough stretching down from southern Canada and it's interaction with the main upper lvl low/trough across NE. A mixture of freezing drizzle/freezing rain/sleet/snow and claps of thunder has been observed in southeast SD with this precip. A plethora of wintry precip/freezing precip will be possible at initial onset late this afternoon before transitioning to all snow by this evening. The suite of BUFKIT profiles continue support this with the column becoming saturated up through the DGZ and all below freezing this evening. High pressure will gradually take hold and keep conditions on the chilly side.
658 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface will pave the way to the warmest days of the year thus far.
Expect intensity to increase later this evening ahead of a cold front. Temperatures tonight will generally be in the mid 60s with high temperatures tomorrow ranging from the low 70s to low 80s across the Mid-South. Chances for showers will continue to occur across the Mid-South during the evening hours, but better chances will likely hold off until the overnight hours as a cold front approaches the area.
Temperatures are running a little warmer than fcst hourly mins as of 02-03z but will let the min temp forecast ride tonight. We may lose these ceilings later this evening before MVFR ceilings return in earnest later tonight and those ceilings should prevail across all terminal locations trough much of the morning on Sunday.
A broad low pressure trough brought unsettled weather to the region over the last few days, with light to locally moderate rainfall amounts of up to 0.
1142 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 A cold front will move through KCDS near sunrise Sunday, with a brief period of MVFR CIGs possible. The cold front is not expected to reach KPVW and KLBB, though winds will increase out of the southwest during the afternoon hours with sustained speeds of at least 20 kt with VFR at all terminals. /issued 226 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022/ After very brief short wave ridging overhead this evening a short wave trough will approach the area on Sunday setting up a critical fire weather day. This speed max will be juxtaposed with a low level thermal ridge on the caprock during the afternoon before moving east.
Temperatures are running a little warmer than fcst hourly mins as of 02-03z but will let the min temp forecast ride tonight.
1250 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Rain and windy conditions will interrupt the warmer weather for the start of the new week.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 78 60 75 44 / 0 10 10 90 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 77 59 75 44 / 0 10 10 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 55 76 59 74 42 / 10 10 10 90 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 75 54 76 43 / 10 10 10 80 70 TN.
341 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface will pave the way to the warmest days of the year thus far.
250 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 A short wave trough will eject into the Central Plains today and will bring precipitation chances to much of central and southern Kansas today. We should see the return of mild to below normal highs as cold air gets reinforced behind the trough.
Infrared satellite imagery at midnight revealed a clear sky across Kansas, with modest cold advection continuing behind the cold front currently making progress south through Oklahoma and Texas. Mid level clouds will increase through Sunday as ascent increases ahead of the trough axis. In conjunction with increasing clouds, temperatures will struggle into the low to mid 40s Sunday afternoon.
- Breezy conditions and dry air both ahead and behind the cold front increases fire weather concerns. A strong cold front to the west moves through this afternoon bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with potentially strong to severe storms expected across northern MO.
A wintry mix of light rain, sleet, and perhaps freezing rain is possible across portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma through about mid-day. As a cold front/northerly wind shift advances southward from Kansas this afternoon/evening, cooler temperatures and higher dew points will result in improving relative humidity and fire weather conditions. , freezing rain or sleet) across west-central/northwest Oklahoma during the onset. However, the more likely scenario is temperatures will warm above freezing before precipitation begins (i. Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front (in the warm sector) across southeast Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.
311 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Rain and windy conditions will interrupt the warmer weather for the start of the new week.
354 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface will pave the way to the warmest days of the year thus far.
Cold air will remain over the central plains today, behind Saturday's departing low pressure system.
Although the low pressure system is tracking to our south, an area of convergence is resulting in snow showers in south-central Idaho east of Mountain Home, including the Western Magic Valley and southern Twin Falls County.
This band of clouds is associated with a band of enhanced moisture advection out ahead of the cold front draped across SE Missouri back into Oklahoma. We'll see increasing clouds overnight tonight as the cold front gets even closer to our area.
1252 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface will pave the way to the warmest days of the year thus far.
1238 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 (06Z TAFs) With dry and stable high pressure in control, VFR prevails with a generally easterly, gusty prevailing wind.
1043 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022 A large anticyclone centered to the east of the Delmarva supports strong easterly breezes (22-27 knots) across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A meager moisture surge, in conjunction with the boisterous BL flow, has resulted in a squally evening for the Lower Keys west of Big Pine, with some locations experiencing several rounds of gusty winds and heavy downpours. We issued an earlier update to increase rain chances for the Lower Keys, but aside from this small tweak, no other changes are needed to the forecast.
1043 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022 Rain and windy conditions will interrupt the warmer weather for the start of the new week.
Parts of northwest Iowa that received less snowfall will warm into the low to mid 30s. However, the GFS keeps the lower levels of the atmosphere dry while the NAM has moist low levels. High pressure takes control for Monday, clearing skies and keeping light west/northwest winds for the day.
Low pressure will develop along the stalled boundary and give it momentum this afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. especially as an upper trough near the Four Corners Region ejects out into the Plains and pushes the surface system eastward. High pressure will shift into the region.
Also, a cold front was located just north of the Red River. The higher dewpoints and deeper boundary layer moisture has caused low clouds to move into southern and eastern parts of the area. most West Central Texas will remain in the warm sector and dry with highs in the lower to mid 80s. The cold front will move south to near the I-20 corridor by this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler north of the front, with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. For tonight, the cold front will move south across the rest of the area, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country.
Temperatures across the northwest one-quarter or so of Oklahoma will be near or below freezing, with wetbulbs well below freezing over a larger area at daybreak. By the time any precipitation moves into those areas, temperatures are expected to recover but wetbulbs will still be below freezing. There is a question on if coverage/duration will be sufficient to cool a widespread locations down to the wetbulb temperature and result in freezing rain potential. With all of the uncertainties, and likelihood that the more aggressive high-res models are overdone on duration and coverage in the subfreezing surface air areas, no winter weather advisories are planned.
The cold front is still working across the area as of 3 AM, positioning itself just south of the area by daybreak. A warm front will lift northward tonight though there does remain some uncertainty on how far north it will get. As dry air wraps into the low, loss of cloud ice could result in a brief period of freezing rain in the previously mentioned area. High pressure fills in across the area on Monday night as the aforementioned low tracks into the Northeast US. Temperatures will be cooler Monday night, but look to rebound nicely going into the middle of the week as southerly return flow sets up on the backside of the high.
Surface analysis places a cold front from Wisconsin back through Missouri then back into the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase across the Mid-South today as the aforementioned cold front drops into portions of Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. This front is expected to briefly stall out then move back north as a warm front later this afternoon into this evening. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions are indicating a decrease in convective chances this evening as the warm front pushes north of the Mid-South. However, this will be short-lived as a cold front moves through the Mid-South later tonight.
An approaching cold front will push a band of showers into the region today, with the cold front stalling over the area later today. The front will then push back northward as a warm front Sunday night, with a band of showers expected as well, and possibly a couple of thunderstorms. On Monday a cold front will spread another round of rain across the region with a slight risk for thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
Light snow showers linger across portions of eastern NV today, with temperatures trending a little cooler through the remainder of the weekend.
Have adjusted the wind/wind gust grids along with the hourly temperature forecast to better accommodate ongoing trends which were about 4 degrees warmer. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 61 75 43 61 / 10 10 90 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 61 75 43 59 / 10 10 90 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 61 73 41 60 / 10 10 90 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 56 76 42 58 / 10 10 80 70 10 TN.
334 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Light snow has begun to wind down across the area as the low pressure system responsible for the precipitation is now tracking well east of the area. High pressure will drop southward over Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas today and tonight, before getting pushed southward by an approaching frontal boundary on Monday. Conditions will remain dry through the short term period, and will be a bit chilly today before WAA ahead of the approaching boundary brings slightly warmer air back to the area on Monday.
High pressure across the western Atlc with associated east-west oriented ridge axis across north-central FL will provide a breezy/gusty (15-20 mph/G25-30 mph) onshore flow across the Space/Treasure coasts with speeds 10-15 mph over the interior and higher gusts expected. High pressure ridging to the north providing for breezy/gusty ESE/SE flow with a slow and gradual decreasing of the speeds tonight. However, the breezy/gusty SE winds will be capable of rapid spread of any new or ongoing fires despite the higher RH values near the coast.
An upper level trough was situated over the southern Canadian Provinces into the Northern Plains.
High pressure is centered just offshore and the weather will stay dry through Monday.
Drier northerly flow aloft has set in over interior NorCal as area comes under the influence of EPAC upper ridge. Given clear skies, light wind, and lower dew points, morning temperatures running upwards of 10+ degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Min temperatures expected in the low to mid 30s across portions of the Central Valley this morning with areas of frost possible.
350 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 (Issued 350 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022) Today through Monday: Low pressure currently over northeast Wisconsin will continue the strong southwest to west winds over the area this morning. An upper level trough will approach the area with the right entrance region of the upper level jet moving over the area around midnight. This will help provide ample upper level support over the area as low pressure tracks from Missouri into the Ohio River Valley.
Light snow has begun to wind down across the area as the low pressure system responsible for the precipitation is now tracking well east of the area. High pressure will drop southward over Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas today and tonight, before getting pushed southward by an approaching frontal boundary on Monday. Conditions will remain dry through the short term period, and will be a bit chilly today before WAA ahead of the approaching boundary brings slightly warmer air back to the area on Monday.
The current winter storm is moving out of the area this morning, but I expect lingering light snow or flurries and even some patchy freezing drizzle today.
PoPs across the central portions of the CWA are the lowest confidence at the moment as it is difficult to determine the extent to which the edges of either system will reach. While heavy banding is possible to the west, these bands have a tendency to weaken as they move east, so right now the highest snowfall totals are only 1-2" in Dawson county.
Unsettled weather pattern setting up as we head into the short term as a cold front sags southeast into the OH River Valley region today and stalls. Though dew points will likely range from near 60 to the lower 60s in this region, there still seems to be some uncertainty as to how much overall instability will be present. This will bring an end to the showers and storms from nw to se during the day as much cooler and drier air spills in behind the front.
These areas will remain the primary focus areas for snow once again today as moisture associated with an area of low pressure in southern Utah continues to stream over the area. The SE corner of the state remains the likely snowfall "winner" with this event with another 1-2" likely across lower elevations with maybe 2-4 additional inches across the higher peaks.
Light snow and freezing rain in the deformation area of the system across far Northern Wisconsin should end this morning as the system moves off to the northeast. There should be a period of dry weather this evening, with light snow expected to arrive over the southeastern half of the forecast area after midnight as an upper trough approaches.
228 AM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Latest upper analysis shows a low pressure center over the four corners area in the southwestern CONUS. A weak upper low is located over southern Manitoba, with a trough extending to the southwest and currently swinging southward out of Canada into Montana and North Dakota. Moisture streaming northward ahead of the southwestern CONUS low pressure system will react to a broad area of ascent associated with the upper trough moving southward out of Canada to produce areas of light snow today. Subsidence behind the departing trough will lead to a dry day on Monday.
740 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Rain and windy conditions will interrupt the warmer weather for the start of the new week. Cooler conditions will follow passage of a Monday front. Deeper moisture and better convective potential are expected to fuel a general inch of rain, but again the strong wind field may yield gust problems and a possible severe threat as the systems cold front is swept eastward during the early afternoon.
553 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 (Today and Tonight) Cold front continues to push into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as showers develop along it from Carrol and Madison counties into Haskell county. Breezing conditions are also expected, especially for the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where the deeper mixing will occur.
410 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Unsettled weather pattern setting up as we head into the short term as a cold front sags southeast into the OH River Valley region today and stalls. Though dew points will likely range from near 60 to the lower 60s in this region, there still seems to be some uncertainty as to how much overall instability will be present. This will bring an end to the showers and storms from nw to se during the day as much cooler and drier air spills in behind the front.
Shower chances increase again on Monday, mainly over the high terrain. Snow showers continue across much of the area this morning as a cold front moves through the region. Thus, less widespread shower activity is expected on Monday with the most likely areas being the high terrain.
A west to east oriented upper level ridge extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains will bring milder conditions to the area on Monday. The ridging will quickly shift downstream with upper level northwest flow setting up and an eventual upper level low gaining influence across the broader part of the region. While light rain and snow is possible during the transition to this pattern, much of the middle to end of the week will remain dry with precipitation chances remaining to the south, as the trough pattern maintains below normal temperatures over the area.
426 AM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Latest upper analysis shows a low pressure center over the four corners area in the southwestern CONUS. A weak upper low is located over southern Manitoba, with a trough extending to the southwest and currently swinging southward out of Canada into Montana and North Dakota. Moisture streaming northward ahead of the southwestern CONUS low pressure system will react to a broad area of ascent associated with the upper trough moving southward out of Canada to produce areas of light snow today. Subsidence behind the departing trough will lead to a dry day on Monday.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to warm into the lower to mid 80s with breezy south winds again in the 10 to 20 mph range. Temperatures will stay warm tonight as a cold front approaches and steady south winds continue through the overnight hours. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by the early Monday morning hours in advance of the cold front.