Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
646 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Weak high pressure builds into the region through tonight, then moves off the coast Thursday. A cold front will move into the area this weekend. Latest sfc analysis shows the sfc trof axis has pushed off the coast with weak high pressure building in from the north. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. leading to the ridge slightly building during the day. A return to more moisture and chances for thunderstorms each day as a cold front moves into the area this weekend.
1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Surface analysis early this morning indicated a trough of low pressure across the central high plains with a warm front draped eastward across Nebraska and along the Missouri/Iowa border. Relatively dry low-level air was in place to the north with easterly surface flow under the influence of high pressure. Showers/isolated storms have been lifting northward especially across southeast Minnesota along the 850 mb warm front/moisture gradient. Stronger forcing will arrive late this afternoon with increasing low- level warm/moist advection ahead of the surface warm front. CAMs are in pretty good agreement that one or more bands of convection will lift north and eastward into the area by this afternoon and tonight as forcing from the upper trough increases.
252 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Other than morning fog, passing high pressure will provide for quiet weather today through Thursday.
By Thu night, upper low closed off in Greak lakes region and frontal zone has moved through. Weak short wave shows up in all operational models, sliding down back side of upper trof and bringing quick chance of more pcpn into central IL Fri night.
351 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A fairly active period of weather is expected over the next 24-36 hours a strong late summer low pressure crosses Upper Michigan. 0-6km shear of 20-25kts and freezing levels of 9- 10kft may allow for some small hail with the strongest showers/storms.
149 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Dry weather is expected across the North Country through Thursday night as high pressure builds over the northeast.
248 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Hydro High pressure will provide pleasant weather today. Low pressure tracking northeast through Wisconsin on Thursday will send very humid air into the region that will help trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 822 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017/ Weak high pressure is in place across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s for highs. Light winds and slight seas for the next several days with high pressure in place across the area.
A well defined cold front will be moving southeast into the lower Ohio River Valley on Thursday, with some short wave energy aloft. Believe that this will combine with all of the increasing moisture to offer the highest thunderstorm chances, and may even manage to work up a few stronger ones during the day.
Lowered highs mainly across the southwestern half of the area as slightly cooler air has moved in on the tail of the northerly winds. This system will drag a cold front through the area today and stall out. This cold front will become the focus for additional convection this afternoon into the evening. The center of a sprawling upper level ridge over the southeastern US will begin to move west on Thursday. The cold front that is expected to affect the region today will retreat back north during the day on Thursday allowing the entire region to become unstable.
A cold front will cross the area Thursday, but cooler air will hold off until evening, despite northwest winds by afternoon.
A TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) will bring some focused mid-level theta-E advection and a frontogenesis response. Thunderstorms have already initiated along the low-level warm front across northeast Iowa and northern Illinois, and they will continue to push north into the area this evening as the front lifts north. A secondary concern for this evening is the low-end tornado potential associated with any thunderstorms located near the warm front. The upper trough will be working through the western Great Lakes on Thursday, resulting in mostly cloudy skies with chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Overnight lows will only cool down into the lower 70s. The upper-level ridge will be established across the Southeast on Thursday, warming up temps but not keeping us precip free. Highs will reach the lower 90s with scattered showers/storms possible by the afternoon. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week, but it will feel even warmer with lingering moisture, so look for heat index values around 100 degrees across the TN Valley.
The isolated showers and thunderstorms that occurred earlier today over the western Hill Country and Edwards Plateau have generally dissipated as the weak trough that was over the Texas panhandle ejects further east into Oklahoma. Elsewhere, hot temperatures are the main story as high pressure is attempting to rebuild back over the region. The mid-to-upper level subtropical ridge off the coast of Louisiana should expand west and intensify further tomorrow. This should allow temperatures to increase 1-2 degrees above where they are today with most areas in the lower 100s aside from some mid to upper 90s in the Hill Country. Dew point values should decrease more quickly tomorrow as mixing is a bit more efficient across the region and drier air moves into the region from the west behind the weak trough.
241 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Current watervapor and visible satellite loop shows the upper level trough axis exiting Wyoming to the east early this afternoon as it moves into central South Dakota and Nebraska. Some low clouds and sprinkles are possible across the western Nebraska panhandle through this afternoon before drier and warmer air aloft moves eastward. This warmer air aloft has made it into southeast Wyoming and is capping most of the convection trying to develop across the mountains.
159 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper level low pressure will slide east across Quebec tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will crest over the area Thursday night.
638 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A fairly active period of weather is expected over the next 24-36 hours a strong late summer low pressure crosses Upper Michigan. 0-6km shear of 20-25kts and freezing levels of 9- 10kft may allow for some small hail with the strongest showers/storms.
/issued 1026 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/ Upper level ridging prevails across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the SE U. Cannot justify likely pops in that area this afternoon with the upper ridge in place and lack of a disturbance to trigger activity. However, since highs are expected to be a tad cooler than previous thinking then heat indices should stay below 105 degrees as well. Once that convection dies out then all eyes will turn to the north as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front that will be sinking south through Missouri.
255 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now over western IA, with showers exiting south central SD. Upper level analysis shows upper trough from eastern SD to western KS. A warmer and drier airmass will move over the area for the rest of the week and most of the weekend as near zonal flow develops over the region.
Scattered convection will remain possible this afternoon across the CWA ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the CWA this evening and overnight tonight. a cold front was positioned from the Texas Panhandle to Central Kansas with an ongoing MCS moving eastward across Eastern Kansas into Missouri. scattered rain showers continued to lift northeast across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within an axis of deep layer moisture out ahead of the cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight as the cold front moves into Northeast Oklahoma.
730 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front will settle over the eastern Carolinas tonight.
Broad high pressure again was positioned from the northern plains through the southern plains this afternoon. The rain cooled air behind this activity, already in the 50s will lead to even cooler temperatures for much of the area heading into the evening, mainly over the northern counties. Models show the the low clouds slow to break up early Monday. The cool period of the weekend and early part of the workweek will come to an end as a broad upper ridge followed by zonal upper flow and southwest downslope boundary layer air.
Seabreeze convection will develop across the lower Texas coast and move inland Monday. A mid level weakness will remain over the West Gulf, splitting a ridge centered over Northwest Mexico/Arizona, and the Bermuda ridge extending across Florida into the Gulf. High pressure behind the front has pushed out into the Northwest Gulf and is supporting light to moderate east winds. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s at night and held to the lower 90s during the day.
Scattered thunderstorms developing over southeast Oregon Monday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central and southwest Idaho, becoming more widespread Monday evening.
815 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions helped to fire off some scattered showers and isolated storms across the region during the afternoon, however similar to yesterday rather warm mid level temperatures (-5C at 500MB) again kept overall convective coverage on the low side for late June. This moisture coupled with the sea breeze and a frontal trough sinking south into the northern part of the forecast area, and cooler mid level temperatures will support higher coverage and chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region from late morning through the afternoon. Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight as high pressure remains in control.
As of 20z, a broad upper level trough was positioned across the upper midwest. At the surface, a cold front was located along Highway 400. As high pressure and dry air advection continues to build in, the front will continue to be shunted southward.
Templer Previous discussion - Weak ridging and high pressure at the surface will make for mostly clear skies, and generally light winds tonight.
Cooler temps and increasing breezes to develop in the coming days. A trough of low pressure off the West Coast will move into the Great Basin on Monday.
With high pressure in control, below normal temperatures and humidity levels continue.
1024 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Northwest flow continues across the northern Plains today as an upper ridge builds in from the western CONUS. Temps Monday will be slightly warmer than today with dry conditions continuing.
908 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front weakens offshore of the southeast coast through Monday. as high pressure builds over the region. stronger cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon and night. bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
714 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A slow moving cold front will stall along the coast tonight while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Cooler and drier air with lower humidity is expected through mid week. An upper level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance moving through the base of the trough combined with slow moving frontal boundary will continue showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Midlands to the coast early this evening. Have forecasted overnight lows from the mid 60s north and west to the lower 70s southeast. 5 inches through the morning but lowering through the day as high pressure continues to build into the area. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows Monday night in the lower to mid 60s.
However, a slightly warmer start to the evening and higher dewpoints as compared to the last couple nights should limit the threat. Shower activity and another cool night ahead, followed by a sunny and warmer day on Monday highlight the short term period. This Sunday morning we saw temps reaching the lower and mid 30s in parts of the southwest, so lowered current forecast a tad, which is lower than any of the guidance.
Lows mostly in the lower 50s overnight, with a few upper 40s by Knox and Stark counties. 1025 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Saskatchewan and ridging into the MO valley will remain in place through the night providing another fair and cool night to central/southeast IL. The relatively cool and dry conditions will continue into Monday, as the broad longwave trough slowly edges eastward across the Midwest. ridge flattens into a zonal flow.
819 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 High-based shower activity continues to spread into nern OK at this time ahead of approaching Central Plains short wave trough.
837 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 With a high pressure ridge and fair weather prevailing this evening into Monday morning, decreased Monday morning lows for most places per latest consensus of MOS guidance. Jaszka Upper level high pressure ridging over the region will bring hot and dry conditions to the region Monday.
An analysis of the 00Z upper air surface showed a weakness in the 500 mb ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf of Mexico, a moisture axis associated with a 700 mb trough over the upper Texas coast with another across norther LA into TX, and a moisture axis at 850 mb associated with a pressure trough across the southern portions of AL, MS and LA into SE Texas.
1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front will settle over the eastern Carolinas tonight.
959 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 High pressure over E AR is sprawling over the entire area with calm winds dropping temps early in LA and still light E winds down I-20 into E TX with low to mid 70s. Overall cooler than average low to mid 60s overnight with no changes to going forecast. /issued 349 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/ A band of showers along Interstate 20 in North Central Louisiana continue to exit the area as an upper trough axis moves east of the region.
1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Sunshine and northerly winds led to a mild afternoon under Canadian high pressure.
Have a Dewpoints have dropped into the 40s across much of the area, and will little cloud cover many spots will see lows cooler tonight than last night. A weak dissipating cold front will move into the area tonight but not have any real impact on the local weather. An approaching mid level short wave trough and associated cold front will bring an increase in cloudiness along with a chance of showers, mainly well after midnight.
1016 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Aviation section updated An upper level trough and weak cold front moving through the region may spark a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday into Monday evening.
High pressure aloft will shift east early Monday, allowing a mild southwesterly flow to develop across the region by Monday afternoon.
1033 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. Mean troughing will remain across the area through the short term period. The pattern rapidly evolves to favor flat ridging moving toward the Appalachians by the latter half of the work week. However, the lack of deepening of the system that shifts toward the upper Mississippi Valley combined with a fairly weak subtropical ridge off the southeastern U. coast will mean moisture advection should occur fairly readily over the flat ridge. As such, while a short period mid-week looks dry, humidity and thunderstorm chances should return with warmer air later in the week. A cold front approaching the region on Monday should set off scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of Pittsburgh.
/issued 349 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/ A band of showers along Interstate 20 in North Central Louisiana continue to exit the area as an upper trough axis moves east of the region.
Ridge axis still overhead this afternoon bringing a light flow to the area with winds mainly out of the southwest except for our southern zones which are seeing winds more out of the south and southeast. Weak frontal boundary starts to sag south into Florida increasing moisture and bringing in cooler air aloft. This will result in warmer afternoon temperatures and late afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage.
Surface analysis this evening places a weak cold front from the Ohio Valley back through Southern Missouri and Southeast Kentucky.
635 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For tonight, a warm front at 850 mb will lift northeast in conjunction with a weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight remain very near previous forecast form the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. On Monday, a broad trough will extend across the Great Lakes Region and Midwest with upper ridging moving east into the Great Basin. A weak backdoor cool front will bring an east to northeast wind, limiting any warmup in the east to the mid and upper 70s, while parts of the southwest reach the lower 80s.
723 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 High pressure and a drier air mass will continue to build over the area tonight, which will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period, along with calm winds overnight.
The same can not be said for western MN where there is a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms mainly this evening along the Buffalo Ridge thanks to modest low level warm air advection coupled with upper level support given the upper level jet structure. The center of the high will go from southern Saskatchewan this evening to the MN/SD border by tomorrow afternoon, which means our area will remain in northerly flow at the surface. With the high moving in, expect winds around 5 to 10 MPH through the day, becoming calm in far western MN by tomorrow evening.
922 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon and night. bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
Cool air remains locked in place so lows tonight in the 40s and highs on Monday in the lower to mid 70s. A warming trend with a more active weather pattern will take shape by the middle of the week as the upper ridge axis begins to shift east into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
1050 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Aviation Section Updated With a high pressure ridge and fair weather prevailing this evening into Monday morning, decreased Monday morning lows for most places per latest consensus of MOS guidance. Jaszka Upper level high pressure ridging over the region will bring hot and dry conditions to the region Monday.
749 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will keep it slightly cooler than normal through the first part of the week.
747 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Quiet weather in store tonight as building upper ridge dominates the region. Did tweak expected lows down a few degrees in the notoriously cooler spots, otherwise forecast is in good shape. Quiet night tonight as heights rise across the area with a building ridge from the west. The upper ridge slides into the forecast area Monday with the axis making it to around Billings Monday afternoon.
High pressure will keep temperatures hot today and Monday.
1142 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will keep it slightly cooler than normal through the first part of the week.
734 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A slow moving cold front will stall along the coast tonight while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Cooler and drier air with lower humidity is expected through mid week. Previous Discussion: An upper level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance moving through the base of the trough combined with slow moving frontal boundary will continue showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Midlands to the coast early this evening. Have forecasted overnight lows from the mid 60s north and west to the lower 70s southeast. 5 inches through the morning but lowering through the day as high pressure continues to build into the area. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows Monday night in the lower to mid 60s.
719 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dewpoints have dropped into the 40s across much of the area, and will little cloud cover many spots will see lows cooler tonight than last night. A weak dissipating cold front will move into the area tonight but not have any real impact on the local weather. An approaching mid level short wave trough and associated cold front will bring an increase in cloudiness along with a chance of showers, mainly well after midnight.
750 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A weak low pressure troughs will form over land Monday and move offshore Monday night.
522 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 High pressure still on track to amplify and center itself over the Four Corners through Monday due to a trough moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. By Monday night, high pressure begins to break down at lower levels.
otherwise skies are steadily clearing as H5 ridging and corresponding subsident drying build in aloft. Clear sky overnight and lights will allow temps to drop into the low-mid 40s all areas. Monday will see a few CU with daytime heating, esp east of the Red River where convective temps are the lowest.
722 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A slow moving cold front will stall along the coast tonight while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Cooler and drier air with lower humidity is expected through mid week. An upper level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance moving through the base of the trough combined with slow moving frontal boundary will continue showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Midlands to the coast early this evening. Have forecasted overnight lows from the mid 60s north and west to the lower 70s southeast. 5 inches through the morning but lowering through the day as high pressure continues to build into the area. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows Monday night in the lower to mid 60s.
Onshore flow will bring much cooler weather and mainly night and morning clouds for the upcoming work week. A thermal trough currently over the Cascades will shift inland tonight with increasing onshore flow.
/Issued 819 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/ High-based shower activity continues to spread into nern OK at this time ahead of approaching Central Plains short wave trough.
Southeast of that, and closer to the Florida Keys, a northeast to southwest oriented regional scale ridge is oriented from near 30 N 75 W southwest to around 24 N 85 W. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest marine and land observations and analysis detail another cold front parked from near Cape Hatteras southwest to the Florida Panhandle. Overnight, Given the ridging remaining across Florida from the Western Atlantic, expect a very typical early summer trade winds pattern overnight, which will also be accompanied with slight moistening in the lower to middle levels. Overnight, Moderate breezes earlier this evening have become more gentle given the proximity to the ridge over the Peninsula.
711 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A weak low pressure troughs will form over land Monday and move offshore Monday night.
1102 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A weak low pressure troughs will form over land Monday and move offshore Monday night.
1028 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A slow moving cold front will stall along the coast tonight while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Cooler and drier air with lower humidity is expected through mid week. Previous Discussion: An upper level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance moving through the base of the trough combined with slow moving frontal boundary will continue showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Midlands to the coast early this evening. Have forecasted overnight lows from the mid 60s north and west to the lower 70s southeast. 5 inches through the morning but lowering through the day as high pressure continues to build into the area. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows Monday night in the lower to mid 60s.