Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 312 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 The area remains under the influence of high pressure, keeping the forecast for today dry. Thursday will be a little warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
233 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Another dry and quiet day is on tap for central Illinois with temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
Ridging over the Central Great Basin will continue over the next couple days while broad troughing continues in the east CONUS, leaving weak NW flow overhead.
Mid/high clouds have increased over the area with moisture streaming northeast and then east ahead of a low latitude upper low off the coast of northern Baja. Some of that moisture will move into our area tonight before a 850mb trough shunts the moisture back to the south and east by morning.
253 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Widespread light rain showers to start the day as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
Relative humidities have been in the low 30's which combined with the gusty winds elevate fire concerns. Ridging along the subtropical jet keeps the dry weather around for the rest of the work week.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s by early morning Thursday, then warming into the low to mid 60s by the afternoon hours. A few of the high res models are showing scattered showers moving across the northern two thirds of the forecast area in the overnight night hours on Thursday so will continue with a slight chance to chance of PoPs. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front (mid 50s in the Big Country) vs mid 60s and lower 70s across the southern half of the area.
Temps bouncing around for the time being, and the low clouds are expanding as they move into the wrn mtns. Low pressure tracking to the north will drag a dry cold front through CPA by Thursday night.
Satellite showing upper low located off the southern BC coast with westerly flow into Washington and Oregon. Low dew points are allowing temperatures to fall with evaporational cooling with most areas in the low to mid 30s now. The upper low will be located off the Oregon coast Thu then move across southern Oregon into California by Fri. Models have been consistent with an area of light snow over central Oregon on the north side of the low Thu night and Fri morning.
Have therefore lowered them in that area around 5 degrees mostly into the lower to mid teens. Coulston After a final warm day across the area today, expect a cooler day on Thursday as temperatures fall to more seasonable levels. As cooler air moves in, a weak disturbance will bring snow to Southwestern Montana. Further north, expect a mostly quiet day with peaks of sunshine, though it will be noticeably cooler.
/issued 259 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ High pressure has shifted east which has increased our cloud cover.
Strong southwesterly winds that developed to the southeast of the trough axis over southwest and south central Kansas this morning were gradually diminishing as a low level jet over the area propagates east. The trough axis will move southeast of the forecast area later tonight. High temperatures will be somewhat cooler Thursday given the loss of downslope flow but are expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60, well above normal for the latter half of January. A weak cold front will be pushing south through western Kansas by Thursday evening.
Temperatures will be a little warmer than today, and around 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the lower 50s. Broadscale WNW flow will transition to SW through the period, as upper level energy digs out a trof over the west U.
The upper low is located off the northern Baja California coast this afternoon, plentiful low level moisture but little forcing this far north. For late tonight into Thursday, as the low weakens and lifts northeastward there will be an increasing chance of rain and high elevation snow showers, mainly along/south of a line from Prescott to Show Low.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Forecast for today has been well on track as we experience warmer temps into the 30s and 40s. The pressure gradient and wind speeds will relax a bit as the trough approaches and passes.
531 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A weak cold front is slowly pushing through the area early this morning; however, the front has washed out quite a bit making it difficult to determine its exact position.
336 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A cold front will drop quickly south through the area this morning, quickest down thru the Red River valley.
However, into the evening we will front from the backside of the low drop through the region. Although the upper levels will lack moisture the low to mid levels are expected to moisten up with cool enough temperatures aloft to reach the DGZ in the low and mid levels. As high pressure pushes in Friday with upper level large scale ridging expect drier conditions Friday/Friday night.
So far this has keep temperatures in the south a little warmer, with lower 20s under clear skies at Hays and upper 20s at Dodge City. A weak cold front will pass across western Kansas this afternoon and evening.
A cold front will usher in much cooler air this evening, with highs in the mid 20s or low 30s on Friday.
A surface front will then strengthen over the Southeast later today and tonight, while mild high pressure otherwise expands across the Carolinas and remains through Friday. A dry cold front will cross the region Friday night, followed by Canadian high pressure that will build across the middle Atlantic this weekend.
An approaching cold front will move into the area late this afternoon and tonight, bringing with it lower ceilings and rain. Changes will commence today as an upper low over the southwestern states moves rapidly eastward and weakens.
Radar continues to indicate small bands of snow are moving south along an advancing cold front. Cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies today as a cold front drops in from the north. Winds combined with relatively cooler temperatures today (highs teens north to 20s south) will produce wind chills from around or just below zero to around 10 above south. Cold high pressure settles in tonight, with lows a few degrees above and below zero across the forecast area.
Overall, expect a widespread 1"-3" of rainfall over the next 24 hours with the highest amounts occuring in the south this evening and tonight.
314 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Another dry but weak trough looks to move south across KS today, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day. A reinforcing secondary cold front will move south across the area tonight, which will lead to much cooler temperatures moving into the area tonight into Fri. Warm advection associated with the low pressure area, suggests this will be a rain chance for most locations as surface temperatures climb above seasonal normals.
301 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Under quasi-zonal flow aloft and west-southwest flow at the surface and with significantly warmer morning temperatures, today is shaping up to be even warmer than yesterday. A dry cold front will move through the region overnight Thursday, and resulting northwest low level flow will bring stout CAA back to the region.
A weak cold front stretches over north central Kansas dividing the overcast high clouds towards the southern CWA and clear skies to the north. Latest runs from the HRRR and RAP are consistent with the higher dewpoints and subsequent dense fog potential remaining just south of Coffey and Anderson counties later this morning. Thursday should be the final mild afternoon across the area as high pressure slides eastward, as light winds prevail in the 5 to 10 mph range. However, as the winds hold on the lighter side, fire danger should be limited to the high category.
At the surface, a cold front will push through the region early this afternoon bringing a wind shift and fairly weak cold-air advection. Highs today should range from around 40 in our north and northeast to the lower 50s in our south. Highs will remain chilly compared to previous days ranging in the low 20s in our east to the mid 30s in our west.
553 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Temperatures this morning are quite mild for a January morning, but that will change this afternoon as a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes drags a cold front across the forecast area. The winds will begin to decrease late in the afternoon and continue to decrease overnight as high pressure builds in behind the front. Friday looks to be a beautiful mid winter day with light northwest winds and cold high pressure giving us plenty of sun. Highs will be mainly in the low to mid teens, except near the Buffalo Ridge where some low 20s look possible.
Upper low, currently over northern Baja, will lift northeastward today with low rain chances developing across far southeast Oklahoma into tonight. Stronger push of colder air expected tonight into the day Friday as Arctic high pressure builds into the Upper Mid-West.
A significant shift in the weather pattern will bring rain showers and much cooler temperatures to the region on Friday.
The main trough axis is expected to move through North Texas tonight and as it does so, one final round of light rain and patchy fog is expected overnight. Drier air will finally filter into the area on Friday as subsidence and westerly surface winds work in behind the passing trough. With the westerly low- level flow and the sun returning, highs on Friday should be much warmer ranging from the lower 70s in the north to the upper 70s and near 80 degrees in the southern counties.
415 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 09z surface analysis had high over southern AB with ridge poking into the Dakotas.
Rua The old frontal boundary moved north as a warm front yesterday and is located just north of the forecast area where it will likely stall. Current temperatures in the low 60s are close to what the normal high temperature should be for today. Some sea fog developed and moved inland during the evening hours as dewpoints crossed over cooler nearshore waters. Although instability will remain weak, limiting any thunderstorm activity, a secondary surface cold front will move down from the north and merge with the old warm frontal boundary.
Otherwise, an increase in mostly high cloud cover is forecast today ahead of Friday's wx system, with the closed low center currently near 48N/133W (W of VCRISL). The low center is forecast to drop SEwd into Norcal during the day on Fri, preceded by its associated cold front. This low pressure system is not associated with an AR so it does not have an abundance of moisture associated with it, but it will be associated with a cold pocket and steep mid level lapse rates.
Although low level profiles, support rain, a few sites are really close to the freezing mark.
At the surface, temperatures have cooled into the upper teens to lower 20s in the wake of a cold front that passed through earlier this evening. For today, a cold front will slowly pass through the area this evening. Good CAA at H85 through the day will take temps from above freezing this morning to near -5 to -8 by midnight tonight. At H85, a ridge axis begins to translate across the CWA early Friday morning. This also transitions H85 flow to southeasterly behind the H85 ridge axis and promotes isentropic ascent. Current indications are that snow will begin in the 03- 06Z timeframe across the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge.
(Today and tonight) An upper low, which is currently moving across the northern Baja region, will open into a trough as it shifts over southern Arizona/New Mexico this evening. With west-southwest winds, temperatures will be warmer today, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 60s.
The low level wind and thickness fields show a weak cold front to get into the plains this morning/mid day. The low level winds will be upsloping through the day, with southeasterlies this evening before normal drainage patterns kick in by 06Z tonight.
545 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper low, which is currently moving across the northern Baja region, will open into a trough as it shifts over southern Arizona/New Mexico this evening. With west-southwest winds, temperatures will be warmer today, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 60s.
415 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 Moderate W-NW flow aloft across the region again today as old swrn cut-off low ejects well south of the state.
219 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front has moved through the area and this will set up a few colder days ahead. At the same time, an upper low will drop into northern California and push moisture over the top of the colder air. Cold air not tremendously deep, so not expecting a great deal of snowfall here, but enough to accumulate for road impacts, especially with roads possible becoming quite slick with some freezing going on. Looking at generally 1-4 inches, with the higher amounts over the mountains and along the foothills, with the central zones (Billings) likely struggling to get a half inch or so. TWH Ensemble clusters showed a positively-tilted split trough over the western U.
So for the overnight a few inches of new snow is possible for the higher elevations. With increased moisture and west to southwesterly flow, some light snow will start falling over the higher elevations of eastern Utah and western Colorado. For now, expect plenty of clouds Friday with some sporadic light snow for the higher elevations and a sprinkle or two for the valleys in the afternoon onwards.
A fast moving cold front is progged to push into the region from the north later today. Winds will die down this evening shortly after frontal passage, but passage of the cold front will drop our temps greatly for tonight.
A warm front was in the process of moving through the region and at 3 AM, KCLL was 51 degrees while KHOU was a balmy 63 degrees. Temperatures near the coast have been steady or slowly warming overnight in the wake of the warm front. That said, models remain pessimistic with regard to ceilings and visibility today as warm and moist air flowing over the cooler shelf waters will remain favorable for more sea fog later today. North of the warm front, gentle lift should also keep low ceilings in place with areas of fog to persist. The persistent warm air advection pattern should yield some patchy light rain this morning but rain chances should increase this afternoon as a weak cold front approaches the region.
316 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies today as a cold front drops in from the north. Winds combined with relatively cooler temperatures today (highs teens north to 20s south) will produce wind chills from around or just below zero to around 10 above south. Cold high pressure settles in tonight, with lows a few degrees above and below zero across the forecast area.
Cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies today as a cold front drops in from the north. Winds combined with relatively cooler temperatures today (highs teens north to 20s south) will produce wind chills from around or just below zero to around 10 above south. Cold high pressure settles in tonight, with lows a few degrees above and below zero across the forecast area.
Upper level low pressure system will continue to slide east across the Great Lakes region into Ontario, with a trailing frontal boundary stretching southwest through the Western Great Lakes. This frontal boundary will arrive across Central Indiana this evening, with high pressure then returning to the Ohio Valley for Friday. This evening will feature a return to more of a quasi- northwesterly flow in the low-levels, with longwave pattern indicating some height falls aloft and weak troughing returning to the Ohio Valley. But with the quasi-zonal orientation to the 500mb wave, expect some surface ridging to maintain minimal cloud cover but with cooler air sinking south from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late tonight into Friday. Subsidence associated with a large dome of high pressure will keep the first half of the weekend dry and cool.
629 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front moving south quickly and is near New Rockford to Hillsboro to Bemidji. A cold front will drop quickly south through the area this morning, quickest down thru the Red River valley.
The Crossville ASOS is notably reporting UP, but the 00Z OHX sounding along with Bufkit forecast soundings show a deep above-freezing layer up to nearly 10,000 feet.
The most likely area for dense fog would be in areas just north and northeast of OKC where dewpoints in the upper 30s are lurking just southeast of areas where temperatures are in the lower 30s, but winds are light so moisture is slow to advect north. The low-level moisture over the area is very shallow, with veered winds above the surface keeping any deeper moisture to the south of the area today.
503 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Under quasi-zonal flow aloft and west-southwest flow at the surface and with significantly warmer morning temperatures, today is shaping up to be even warmer than yesterday. A dry cold front will move through the region overnight Thursday, and resulting northwest low level flow will bring stout CAA back to the region.
Most sites are in the low to mid 40s and reporting light fog. Latest surface analysis places a low pressure system over Ontario, Canada with a cold front extending southwest through Michigan and back through southeast Missouri.
This snow will spread south across the western mountains and valleys through the afternoon, as the longwave trough digs south along the West Coast. By Friday, expect the low over California to move towards the Four Corners region which will shift the majority of our activity west of the Divide.
Changes will commence today as an upper low over the southwestern states moves rapidly eastward and weakens.
Warmer airmass has readings up some 30 to 35 degrees from yesterday morning, which are even mild for normal highs this time of year. Perhaps main focus today will be watching development of snow showers going into the afternoon as a sharper short wave trough drops out of Manitoba and into the Great Lakes by tonight. Wave and associated cold front pass tonight making for a return to cold, albeit seasonal, temperatures.
347 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Temperatures this morning are quite mild for a January morning, but that will change this afternoon as a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes drags a cold front across the forecast area. The winds will begin to decrease late in the afternoon and continue to decrease overnight as high pressure builds in behind the front. Friday looks to be a beautiful mid winter day with light northwest winds and cold high pressure giving us plenty of sun. Highs will be mainly in the low to mid teens, except near the Buffalo Ridge where some low 20s look possible.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): The stationary front currently just off the lower Texas coast this morning may waffle back towards the coast later this morning before washing out this afternoon. Southerly flow develops later this morning into the afternoon with gradually warming into the low 70s. Low temperatures tonight should fall into the upper 50s across the western ranchlands to the low to mid 60s across the Rio Grande Valley. Friday will be warm with highs reaching the upper 70s near the coast to the low 80s inland with a mix of sun and clouds.
411 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A weak cold front is slowly pushing through the area early this morning; however, the front has washed out quite a bit making it difficult to determine its exact position.
Low pressure in Ontario drops into the St Lawrence River Valley late tonight/early Friday morning allowing an arctic cold front to drop through the Great Lakes region.
High pressure remains straddled across the region, permitting sunny skies and seasonably pleasant weather across South Florida the remainder of the week. While a stationary boundary that is currently draped across the FL peninsula will make an attempt to ooze southward, its attempt will be thwarted with ridging aloft holding firmly in place.
253 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 In the near term, the western edge of the cloud shield associated with a low pressure system to the east will swing over the region.
653 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 Moderate W-NW flow aloft across the region again today as old swrn cut-off low ejects well south of the state.
Expect valley high temperatures near freezing, while overnight lows drop into the lower teens. Temperatures will continue to stay around normal through next Thursday, when southwesterly flow brings in slightly warmer temperatures and a better chance at precipitation.
254 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 09z surface analysis had high over southern AB with ridge poking into the Dakotas.
Widespread light rain showers to start the day as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
326 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Temperatures this morning are noticeably warmer than the past couple of mornings, with most locations expected to remain in the 40s through daybreak. Southwesterly surface flow will aid in warming this afternoon, despite continued cloud cover and precipitation, with highs expected to rebound above normal into the lower to middle 60s for most. No wintry precipitation is expected given temperatures areawide remain above freezing, however, the rain could still result in slick roads, and patchy fog this morning mainly along and south of I-10 and across the higher terrain could produce some localized visibility reductions. The trough/upper low responsible for the unsettled weather pattern the past couple of days is finally on the move, progressing across northern Baja this morning, and progged to open up and dampen as it quickly moves across the region through tonight.
Another dry but weak trough looks to move south across KS today, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day. A reinforcing secondary cold front will move south across the area tonight, which will lead to much cooler temperatures moving into the area tonight into Fri. Warm advection associated with the low pressure area, suggests this will be a rain chance for most locations as surface temperatures climb above seasonal normals.
Have gone with warmer CONSMOS numbers there and stayed with numbers closer to NBM over the south which will have cloud cover much of the day, with highs in the low 50s. For tonight will see a partly to mostly cloudy sky with lows from the mid to upper 20s north and near the freezing mark in the south.
Slight upper level ridging persists through Friday over the Gulf of Mexico promoting near zonal flow aloft over MS/AL/FL. Rains should have moved offshore late in the afternoon Friday as the frontal boundary drops offshore and a cooler/drier northerly flow develops over the area. Friday will be a tick cooler than Thursday with the continued cloud cover and lingering rains, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s north of I-65, and middle 60s south of I- 65.
258 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Mild temperatures return reaching the upper 40s for areas north of US36 and the low to mid 50's for places south. This system will have little impact on our weather thanks to the large high pressure dominating the central CONUS.
Tonight, the closed low just south of Arizona at this time, will move east over Texas as a weakening wave. A cold front will move south to near a Sterling City to Brownwood line tomorrow.
1010 AM PST Thu Jan 21 2021 Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry weather today and tonight.
1101 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Light rain/drizzle has just about tapered off to the SE this late Thu morning following the passage of a cold front. As such, any surge of cooler/drier air behind the exiting front is displaced well to the N/W, in closer proximity to a reinforcing cold front from the OH Valley SW into the Midwest/mid Plains states. In any case, with low level flow remaining out of the SW/W, afternoon highs look to climb mainly into the lower 50s.