Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE SCENARIO WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON TO NW IL BY 12Z/7AM FRI. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE TRIPLE POINT. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY ACTIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN EASTERN IOWA. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS NOT FAR FROM MOS GUIDANCE, IN THE LOWER 70S. FRIDAY WILL START OUT WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL.
642 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WORKS TO THE FOUR CORNERS. TONIGHT AS THE LOW WORKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW DROPS ONTO THE PLAINS AND LEAVES THE CWA IN NE FLOW. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE PRECIP ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OPENING UP AND GETTING ABSORBED IN A MORE ELONGATED TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
400 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH COOLER UPPER 80S FROM SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS, LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WITH UPPER 50S AT DODGE CITY AND 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM AS WE REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRL GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST BUT SHOULD BE TEMPERED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF ADVECTS INLAND.
Highs will again top out in the lower 90s at most locations with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s. Our region will remain on the northern periphery of the southern summertime summertime ridge. Will also have to monitor for the influence of the low level jet which could be factor Friday night.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CROSS CITY THROUGH MARIANNA, WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST OBSERVED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THIS REGION. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE GA/SC COASTLINE. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS RIDGING EXTENDS WEST OVER THE FL/GA BORDER.
753 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BRINGING A DAY OF AMPLE SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEARING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ) AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW.
COOLER AIRMASS WITH REGION UNDER NNE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE US IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SMALL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE HIGH PRESSURES ARE VERY DOMINATE AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE US. AND FORCING THE TROUGH OUT.
THE LOWER WIND PROFILE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS AS A RIDGE CONCENTRATES TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE RESISTANCE IN THE LOWER LAYERS WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST 24 HOURS.
1249 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 21Z TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF IN REGION OF VERY MOIST AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER- TO MID-60S FAHRENHEIT AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEARING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MORE APPRECIABLY WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
85h thermal ridge of 32C will extend across the Trans Pecos into SE NM.
926 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE EXPECTED SHORT TERM INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING BUILDING THE ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500 MILLIBARS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
THE 8 AM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
323 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MOVES OVER LOCAL AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALSO OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BECOME MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED DUE TO THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS SEEN IN THE MORNING SOUNDING.
HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MOST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT BACK INTO MEXICO AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE DEEPENING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ERODES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS MOUNTAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PROVIDING INCREASED INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS. THE UPPER LOW WORKS TO THE FOUR CORNERS. TONIGHT AS THE LOW WORKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW DROPS ONTO THE PLAINS AND LEAVES THE CWA IN NE FLOW. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE PRECIP ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OPENING UP AND GETTING ABSORBED IN A MORE ELONGATED TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG A DRYLINE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL SUPPRESS SHRA AND TSRA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST SHOULD SUPPRESS TSRA FRIDAY TOO. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT BACK INTO MEXICO AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE DEEPENING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ERODES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS MOUNTAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
Upper low currently over Great Lakes region is expected to remain E of the area.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS RATHER QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015 Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last night. Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the weekend.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TO DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND BRING A COOLING TREND. WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ALOFT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
245 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/7AM TODAY THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING. A COLD POOL OF AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW, HELPING CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EAST OF I-57, WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE PRESENT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PEAK TOWARD 18Z WHEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT TO EASTERN IL. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER INDIANA. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE MUCH OF THE DAY.
COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UT. WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STILL 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY ARE TONIGHT.
306 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
530 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS WITH THE QUICK MOVING UPPER LOW AND AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST NEAR THE ARRIVAL/PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEN BEGIN TO SLACKEN IN THE EVENING.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN TN VALLEY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH QUIET WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW WESTERLY ALOFT AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST.
A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON FRIDAY, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND AND THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS.
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/ SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 40S. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 00Z PLOT AND RAOB DATA SHOWS WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS WAS REFLECTED IN WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
142 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
420 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CHILLY START TO THE LAST DAY OF APRIL 2015. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR REINFORCING THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SENDING MORE COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.
THE SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOUTHEAST OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES. THIS WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FELT THROUGHOUT WESTERN KANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.
TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. POCKETS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SINKS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASING MOISTURE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
300 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015 High amplitude flow characterized by a 500mb closed low dropping from the Great Lakes today into the Ohio valley tonight, while ridging builds from the desert southwest into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A weak piece of energy dropping along the west side of the Great Lakes upper low is producing some mid clouds from Illinois back into potions of central and east central Missouri, but are very scattered in nature.
339 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF TROUGHS SURROUNDING THE UPPER LAKES. WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING RIDGING FRIDAY YIELDING A PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER DAY.
WITH UPPER LOW SLIDING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. ANY RAIN OVER THIS AREA WILL END QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
High amplitude flow characterized by a 500mb closed low dropping from the Great Lakes today into the Ohio valley tonight, while ridging builds from the desert southwest into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A weak piece of energy dropping along the west side of the Great Lakes upper low is producing some mid clouds from Illinois back into potions of central and east central Missouri, but are very scattered in nature.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM MONTANA. WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER AS BROAD RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP.
658 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DROP SOUTH TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAINS UNDER A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
126 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT ALONG THE PA LINE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY SETTLES OVER THE STATE WITH AMPLIFIED BUT NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THE KEY TO THE EXTENDED.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING NW WINDS LIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES AGAIN RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS A MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER EAST COAST TROUGH.
318 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND OVER BERMUDA.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY OVER A KDLN-KBZN-KLWT LINE. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY BUT REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE 70S FRIDAY.
420 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE AXIS FROM MINNESOTA TO TEXAS.
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST.
AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
Have therefore trended toward the higher-resolution models but even those are not in full agreement with each other. Southerly to southwesterly flow will commence, allowing for moisture and warmer temps to be advected in.
135 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS LIFTED NE ENOUGH TO ALLOW NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN. /ISSUED 324 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT KICKED EAST OF TEXAS OVERNIGHT HAS LEFT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED NW FLOW DISTURBANCE HAS WARRANTED LEANING SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST SK TO WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN ID. A LEE TROF EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE USUAL AREAS FROM THE PINE RIDGE TO THE FAITH AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 5-15 DEGREES BELOW LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME SO THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.