Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOSING SOUTHWEST INTO THE HEART OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE PUSHING SOME ENERGY NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. THE LOWEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THU IN THE COL REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BETTER CHANCE PRECIPITATION EPISODES WILL BE EMBEDDED THU NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK CLOSED LOW SETTLES OVR/NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, RANGING FROM 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
320 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER S-CNTRL NE WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO IA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THAT TIME WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE PASSING TO OUR EAST. AND AHEAD AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS.
AT LEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID STATE THU NIGHT RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH YET AGAIN PATCHY FOG BEING POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWS THU NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.
Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING. FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE E-SE WIND WILL USHER THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE WEST. AM EXPECTING THAT FOG WILL DVLP E AND SPREAD W BUT THE LOWER VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED INLAND FROM THE COAST AND EXTEND TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VCT CROSSROADS. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE IN PLACE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE E AND SE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD COUNTER THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE RAIN AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. COOLER AIR WORKING INTO THIS REGION AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES SHOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. BUT TRENDS WARMER AND DRYER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NRN/NERN VT ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT.
WITH RAIN AND STORMS RETURNING FROM THE SW WITH A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS PUMPING DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL SHEAR IN PLACE.
Light snow accumulations over the higher elevations of the NorCal mountains. A little breezy behind this system on Thursday, then dry and warmer. An upper level level trough with a surface cold front will quickly pass through Northern California today. Snow showers in the higher mountains could bring a few inches of wet snow late this afternoon into tonight.
A low pressure trough is found extending from southeastern British Columbia south and east towards southern Idaho, while a 1021 mb Canadian high is situated over southeastern Alberta.
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AS NSSL 4KM SUGGEST MINI SUPER CELL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NEAR FREMONT EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW. NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR. WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS ALSO MATERIALIZED ON THE PLAINS AND ON THE HIGH MTN RIDGES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WINDING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/LOWER GREAT BASIN. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING IN. SHOW SEE SNOWFALL COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. PRETTY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE UPCOMING STORM.
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering surface winds to the southwest. Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper low. High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area Thursday night ahead of a deep trough.
3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SO HAVE REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TO CAPTURE THE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THREAT/LOW CONFIDENCE. A BREAK FROM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
252 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST LOCATIONS TODAY.
A DIFFLUENT LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS PLUS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE FOR TODAY OFF TO OUR EAST HOWEVER WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE NORTH BAY OR SF BAY THIS AFTERNOON PLUS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS FIRING UP. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE COAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE WILL MOVE TO 4-CORNERS BY MIDDAY AND ERN NEW MEXICO BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO NW AND NORTH.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
351 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 (Tonight and Tomorrow) High pressure dominating West Central Texas tonight, will quickly give way to another upper trough for tomorrow. For tomorrow, high pressure will quickly shift east, as another upper disturbance moves into the region. (Thursday Night though Wednesday) The next in a series of upper level troughs will be centered over the Four Corners area by Thursday night with a resultant southwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR.
143 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 AVIATION A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
The 06z analysis depicts a large, negatively tilted upper level trough across the plains with a large squall line stretching from Missouri southward to Texas. Closer to home, the low level flow has become southerly ahead of this system with an increase in boundary layer moisture.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WINE COUNTRY AND RADAR INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF CURRENT ECHOES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL'S HOURLY FORECASTS, THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH KERN COUNTY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS THEN MOVE THE LOW TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY HOWEVER SOME WRAP AROUND FLOW WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
A CHANCE FOR TSRA EXISTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH CDS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR EXPERIENCING CONVECTION. AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST.
146 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES WILL WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
/issued 624 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ Drier air in the wake of a Pacific cold front will continue to advect into the CWA this morning with winds becoming westerly at 8-12 kts. /issued 419 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ (Today and tonight) The Pacific cold front has moved through West Central TX and much drier air is being advected into the CWA by west winds around 10 mph. Max temperatures were kept closer to the cooler NAM MOS, with highs in the mid 80s across most of the CWA. Despite south winds of 5-10 mph tonight, relatively dry air and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low/mid 50s.
355 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.
CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SOME CONVECTION. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
1235 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA). FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.
/issued 315 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ Upper level low pressure area across the western high plains will slowly move northeast into the central plains today. In the meantime another Pacific upper level low pressure area will move onshore and dig into the southern Rockies by Thursday evening.
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG U/L LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS WITH PLACEMENT OF QPF ALONG STRETCHED OUT DEFORMATION ZONE INDUCED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
The cold front won't have any impacts on our sensible weather overnight other than continue to stream in some high level clouds. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 50s.
While the winter precipitation is ending along the Interstate 90 corridor, there may be some localized dense fog on the ridge tops this afternoon. Moisture feed ahead of this low was producing mainly scattered rain showers along/south of I- 90. cloudy through the remainder of the night with lows falling into the lower 30s. Thursday night could get a little interesting as models bring a fairly vigorous mid-level trough into the region.
/issued 517 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front has cleared the forecast area early this morning. /issued 403 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front has pushed southward across the entire forecast area early this morning. drier and slightly cooler air has moved into west central Texas. Weak ridging will build in over west Texas. Will see slightly cooler afternoon highs today, generally in the 60s, with sunny skies.
Water-vapor imagery showed a baroclinic leaf developing in an area of upper difluence ahead of an elongated Pacific trough moving onto the coast. The trough will approach the region today bringing increasing q-vector convergence to the central and western zones. Northern branch of the splitting trough will move over the area tonight with strong q-vector convergence moving quickly through the area through Thu. A weak pacific cold front will cross the area as well. Upper ridging will build over the area behind the trough on Thursday. Lee troughing will support 50 mph wind gusts in the gap-flow areas. The lee trough will strengthen during Thu.
By mid morning, fog should dissipate leaving behind the higher cloud decks. A weak upper level trough will slide eastwards into the southeast states today and push a weak cold front into the region. However, with minimal deep moisture and the upper ridge holding strong across South Florida, any precip associated with the front is expected to dissipate before reaching the local forecast area.
401 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over southeast Wisconsin will move northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Thanksgiving Day. Persistent cyclonic low level flow/trapped moisture well into Thu as system occludes/anchors in northern Lower Michigan as trof axis takes on strong negative tilt.
Fog is expected to persist until wind shift with cold front early Thursday morning. The unstable and fast moving Pacific trof and associated cold front crossing the region still appears on track for this evening and overnight. Upper ridging will build over the area behind the trof on Thursday. Surface lee troffing will also develop. The lee trof will strengthen Thursday night.
357 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Dry west flow today ahead of an approaching trough on Thursday.
223 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Much cooler conditions across the area this afternoon behind the cold front that moved through last evening. Once the trough passes to our north a cold front will move south across the region tomorrow night.
109 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Dry high pressure will be off the coast tonight ahead of a weak front approaching from the west by morning.
1249 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over the mid Mississippi Valley will weaken as it moves towards the Great Lakes today.
1135 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Northwest winds with a weak high pressure system building in will slowly clear the skies out for today. This weak high pressure will move out of the area tonight as the next short wave approaches.
242 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front today. A weak cold front Thursday.
/ISSUED 332 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ A cold front that extended southeast of a Sulphur Springs to Austin line at 3 am will exit the forecast area before daybreak.
208 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front will bring some rain chances to the region this afternoon.
High pressure north of the waters will shift slightly southeast through the rest of the week, with light winds continuing.
A fast moving disturbance will bring gusty winds to much of the region today with north winds persisting along the lower Colorado River Valley Thanksgiving Day.
351 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front will bring rain chances to the region tonight.
Current water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough with the axis near the Mississippi River. At the surface a cold front is located just to the west of the Mississippi River with high pressure along the eastern seaboard. The weakening cold front will move through the forecast area during the day tomorrow. The front will become more diffuse as the upper trough pushes off to the northeast and a ridge builds into the area.
1012 AM MST Wed Nov 23 2016 Upper level ridge shifting east across the forecast area this morning with patchy low clouds and fog hanging on in a few of the lower valleys. This activity will burn off after 9 am with a dry and warmer day in store as the ridge moves through. Next Pacific system and its associated cold front will be sweeping through tonight with scattered rain and snow showers developing along the front this evening.
346 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 (Tonight and Thanksgiving Day) As high pressure builds over the region, look for beautiful Fall weather, across West Central Texas, for the next 24 hours. For Thanksgiving Day, winds from the south will return, and highs will range from the lower 70s to the mid 70s.
257 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Winds have been rather breezy and gusty today, enhanced by a strong pressure gradient between a mid-Atlantic Ridge and an advancing trough, combined with deep mixing. Weakening dynamic forcing in addition to an abundance of dry air at the lower levels is causing a rapid reduction in rainfall along/ahead of the front. The cold front will cross the area tonight with only mild cold advection for tonight and Thursday since this is a strongly modified and mixed airmass of continental/maritime origin.
Therefore have patchy fog mainly in the central zones and the higher elevations in the north for the afternoon. Visibility restrictions possible across the ridge tops as low cloud merges into fog. The low cloud is on the edge of a Canadian high pressure system which is expected to move east today. Temperature profiles lean toward high potential for freezing rain if any precipitation falls during the overnight hours, with snow possible before exiting the state on Thursday morning.
329 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Cooler and much drier air has filtered into North and Central TX in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage.
The trough which brought widespread precipitation through the area overnight is shifting eastward into Nevada. Upper level ridging will bring a return to dry weather tonight and into Thanksgiving.
Forecast - High pressure over the eastern United States will migrate eastwards over the next couple of days and elongate into a weakening ridge east of the southeastern United States.
At this time visible satellite shows low clouds wrapping behind the upper level low to our north. The real deal cold front is half way over us with this fresh cool air advection bringing back a nice crisp feel to the holiday coming. Upper 50s extend in the wake of the cold front with still a range of 60s from El Dorado to Shreveport and Toledo Bend country and Deep E TX.
Still expecting a slight possibility of freezing rain tonight, but elevated surfaces are the only threats for freezing. Remnants of it will move across the CWA tonight, bringing the chance of snow north, freezing rain in the central and rain SW.
Warm front shield of rain showers lifting now north of the I-64 corridor into southern Indiana and southwest Ohio. As the cold front approaches from the west later this afternoon, rain showers will spread back into the area, especially mid afternoon onward. The base of this trough has a vortmax now over the Red River and it will rotate northeastward and cross the Wabash River this afternoon.
A surface trof will cross the area on Thanksgiving day.
138 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front today. A weak cold front Thursday.
Despite this rain showers will eventually move into the area tonight ahead of an advancing cold front. The initial rain falling out of mid level clouds will result in virga and will also go to moisten up the lower layers. In addition to the lower atmosphere moistening up, an extensive area of low clouds near and behind the cold front will spread into the area early Thursday as the front presses across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be only slightly cooler behind the front on Thursday and Thursday night, remaining above normal.
343 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over Illinois will weaken as it moves toward the Central Great Lakes tonight.
Upper level ridge shifting east across the forecast area this morning with patchy low clouds and fog hanging on in a few of the lower valleys. This activity will burn off after 9 am with a dry and warmer day in store as the ridge moves through. Next Pacific system and its associated cold front will be sweeping through tonight with scattered rain and snow showers developing along the front this evening.
Temperatures were generally in the lower to middle 30s, although there were a few temperatures in the upper 30s near Lake Superior. In terms of snowfall, 8 inches appears to be the max, which occurred northwest of Two Harbors in the higher terrain. One thing is for sure, the low clouds across the area do not appear as if they will be going anywhere for some time. The low clouds blanketed the entire western Great Lakes region, back through the Northern Plains, and even into south central Canada.
227 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A mid-afternoon surface analysis showed an area of low pressure near St Louis with a warm front across Indiana and Ohio, and a cold front back across Missouri and Arkansas. Thursday night lows will range the lower 30s across southwest Indiana to near 40 across the Lake Cumberland region.
Lastly do not expect winds to strengthen and snowfall to begin in the high country until this evening. Winds will start to come up a little over the higher ridges ahead of the approaching trough, but showers should wait until sometime this evening. Incoming trough will cause winds to pick up overnight. Window of opportunity for an amplified mountain wave with and behind the trough axis, roughly 09z to 15z Thursday.
Light showers and drizzle WI will end this evening as the surface and mid level trough axises clear the area. Northwest winds will pick up slightly after midnight on the backside of the low. There is good model agreement on lows at or just above freezing. Mid level ridging moves in Thursday which dries out the atmosphere somewhat but it will still be a overcast day.
1254 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure along the eastern seaboard will move off the coast.
132 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over northwest Illinois will move across Lower Michigan on Thanksgiving Day. Rain this afternoon will end by late tonight as the low moves northeast. Plume of deeper moisture within warm conveyor belt downstream of broad mid-upper level trough will bring periods of mainly light rain to the area today-this evening. Could see some very light snow accums on mainly grassy/elevated surfaces, with some light freezing rain possible mid morning given expected near freezing wet bulb profile under a warming/moistening layer near 800-750 mb. Weakening low level reflection and occluded front will lift east- northeast into the lower Great Lakes tonight.
305 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front today. A weak cold front Thursday.