Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
710 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Warmer temperatures are expected today but there may be a couple of showers this afternoon.
Off of the Caprock, where skies will be a bit more sunny, temperatures should be able to warm into the low to mid 60's. Radiational cooling conditions will be much better tonight however a slightly warmer airmass will also be in place to limit how cold it can get.
Meanwhile, mountains, ridge tops and plateaus maintained most of their snow coverage which kept the far west of petroleum county under significant enough snow to maintain the Advisory. GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: A cold frontal passage today will lead to steady or falling temperatures across the region. Snow will taper off tonight, though lingering instability driven rain and snow showers are certainly a possibility into Monday as the upper level low remains over the forecast area. Ensembles show the height pattern reflecting a ridge toward the middle of the week building across SW Canada and the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern High Plain, oriented in a west to east fashion.
413 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s across the southeast half of the CWA but this will be several degrees cooler than normal.
A strong cold front will move through north central Montana today, then through central and southwestern Montana overnight.
637 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A cold front moving through the Northland today and tonight is the focus. Models are in good agreement with an elongated area of low pressure moving over the Northland today, and its associated cold front following behind. Vigorous cold air advection behind the low, accompanied by an upper low that closes off, will bring enough forcing to generate some snow showers/flurries from the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin.
In addition, increased the cloud cover over that area to handle observations associated with core of passing s/wv trough.
518 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Anchored massive western NOAM ridge will continue to support long trajectory N-S flow over central NOAM through the week. A potent trough will slide down the front of the ridge today, supporting a strong cold front into the region, with accumulating snow tonight and a period of below normal temps after. Mild conds can be expected ahead of the cold front today, with 50s/60s common across the SE half. There will be enough instability present to allow the cold front aloft to support convective showers, possibly a few thunderstorms ahead of the main FGEN band as it settles south. Otherwise, FGEN banding will allow a generally 3-5 inches on the surrounding plains, with local banding supporting the higher end of these amounts.
640 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A deep upper low centered over Hudson Bay and a large upper trough extending southwest into WY, MT and the Northern Plains will drive a strong cold front southward today. This cold front will drop south to near the NE/SD border by late this afternoon. The strong cold front will drop quickly south through the area tonight.
/28/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s across the southeast half of the CWA but this will be several degrees cooler than normal.
243 AM PDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Dry and warm spring conditions will prevail today through Monday as high pressure moves overhead.
628 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level low currently centered near the Four Corners region will slowly track south, reaching northern Mexico by Monday morning. Overnight low temperatures will also be below normal, in the low to mid 40s.
Warmer and drier weather will return Monday, with unsettled conditions possible again late in the week.
Impactful weather: Freezing temperatures through daybreak for sensitive agricultural areas of NW lower Michigan. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Deep low pressure is lifting up the north Atlantic coast early this morning, while upper troughing was seen in the central Plains and in Manitoba/Ontario. Skies start to increase in cloudiness by late this evening and especially overnight as the cold front approaches. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, in the low to mid 50s in eastern upper, and in the mid to upper 50s in nrn lower. Lows tonight will be in the lower half of the 30s for most areas. The surface cold front speeds southeastward likely reaching Lake Huron by 18z Monday taking the rain showers along with it.
A cold front will drop into the area Monday night and then stall.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s across the southeast half of the CWA but this will be several degrees cooler than normal.
E/NE flow everywhere except KCNM where weak lee trough will keep winds confined out of the SE. A ridge over the West Coast is providing northerly flow over the Central Plains that continues to funnel cool air into Texas and eastern New Mexico keeping temps below normal through this week. Rain chances will continue for much of the Permian Basin and Big Bend through tomorrow due to lift from an upper level low sitting over Arizona, unfortunately any rainfall amounts will be light with few accumulations over a tenth of an inch.
548 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Impactful weather: Freezing temperatures through daybreak for sensitive agricultural areas of NW lower Michigan. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Deep low pressure is lifting up the north Atlantic coast early this morning, while upper troughing was seen in the central Plains and in Manitoba/Ontario. Skies start to increase in cloudiness by late this evening and especially overnight as the cold front approaches. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, in the low to mid 50s in eastern upper, and in the mid to upper 50s in nrn lower. Lows tonight will be in the lower half of the 30s for most areas. The surface cold front speeds southeastward likely reaching Lake Huron by 18z Monday taking the rain showers along with it.
344 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A strong cold front will move through north central Montana today, then through central and southwestern Montana overnight.
A cold front moving through the Northland today and tonight is the focus. Models are in good agreement with an elongated area of low pressure moving over the Northland today, and its associated cold front following behind. Vigorous cold air advection behind the low, accompanied by an upper low that closes off, will bring enough forcing to generate some snow showers/flurries from the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin.
416 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Forecast challenges through the short term revolve around today's strong cold frontal passage and the implications it will have on temperatures and precip chances. In fact, we've seen some areas(Aberdeen area and points east) experience slowly rising temps into the low 40s as a westerly wind component has kicked in. The aforementioned cold front is currently poised across the far northern ND and northern MT. The CAA that sets in will usher in much cooler air through the afternoon hours.
It will be significantly warmer west of the mountains and very dry inland.
619 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Forecast challenges through the short term revolve around today's strong cold frontal passage and the implications it will have on temperatures and precip chances. In fact, we've seen some areas(Aberdeen area and points east) experience slowly rising temps into the low 40s as a westerly wind component has kicked in. The aforementioned cold front is currently poised across the far northern ND and northern MT. The CAA that sets in will usher in much cooler air through the afternoon hours.
549 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE Areas of VFR and MVFR cigs with occasional mt obscurations will continue through this morning as an upper low/trough moves southwestward through central AZ and low-level ely flow remains across NM. Drier and breezy west winds will return Monday with much warmer temperatures.
Today a cold front will move north to south across the region.
652 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Cold front starting to enter northern ND this morning, making it as far south as about Highway 2 so far. These cold front conditions look to be found across much of the area today as the front pushes south. A cold front will be the main weather maker today.
Accumulating snow expected today for the Little Rockies and A cold frontal passage today will lead to steady or falling temperatures across the region. Snow will taper off tonight, though lingering instability driven rain and snow showers are certainly a possibility into Monday as the upper level low remains over the forecast area. Ensembles show the height pattern reflecting a ridge toward the middle of the week building across SW Canada and the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern High Plain, oriented in a west to east fashion. Expect lowering ceilings and reduced visibility with rain and snow mix as a cold front pushes through the region through this evening.
1034 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Warmer temperatures are expected today but there may be a couple of showers this afternoon.
High pressure in the wake of a stalled frontal boundary will help keep below normal temperatures anchored over the area, with highs once again only reaching the upper 60s this afternoon. Lingering cloud cover from the passing upper level trough will hinder radiational cooling overnight. Due to these factors, overnight lows will be on the cool side again with lows in the low to mid 40s.
654 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Cold front pushing south through the northern valley will continue its quick travels across the rest of the FA this morning. This mornings cold frontal passage and associated precip the primary impact or concern today. Cold front and low pressure system will slide across the area this morning with temps ahead of the front above freezing and setting the stage for mostly rain with the exception of areas along the international border where thermal profiles suggest some snow showers are possible.
A cold front will begin to drop into our region on Monday and while there has been better convergence on the speed of this front through our area, there remains some differences in guidance on this feature. That said, there is good confidence on the front not making it south of I-70 until after sunset Monday evening, leaving a mostly sunny day with W-SW winds to drive temps well into the 60s, topping out in the low 70s in spots. Cooler air will filter into northern MO and central IL from a likely cold FROPA, resulting in temps topping out around 60 there and falling through the 50s Monday afternoon. Used the highest MOS for a starting point for max temps most areas Monday and increasing a degree or two further, which has verified well the past few "warm" day scenarios.
Dry conditions are expected to continue the rest of the day with highs in the low to upper 60s. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 72 48 75 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 69 46 73 46 / 30 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 46 70 46 73 44 / 30 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 66 41 71 44 / 20 10 0 20 20.
As temperatures fall below freezing late tonight, the rain looks to turn over to snow, with some light accumulations possible, mainly along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. Lows Monday night will be in the lower to mid 20s.
Highs might not reach 40 for some Monday with freezing temps for lows expected into Thu morning. While models continue to be at odds in strength, positioning and timing, there is some agreement that later Fri into Sat could see some chances as ridges slides east and ripples in the flow work in. A strong cold front will shift winds to the NW this evening with a period of gusts up to 25-30 kts possible behind the front, and gusts around 20 kts continuing into Monday. MVFR ceilings will develop behind the front with potential for SCT/BKN MVFR ceilings to persist into Monday in the cooler air behind the front.
301 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 High pressure will bring partly sunny skies and milder temperatures to NY and PA over the next few days. High pressure will bring a fair amount of sunshine through late Monday. Any thunderstorm which develops could produce small hail due to the low 0C level.
337 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Latest GOES East Low Level Water Vapor Imagery shows a positively-tilted trough digging across Missouri and Arkansas at this hour.
Forecast challenges through the short term revolve around today's strong cold frontal passage and the implications it will have on temperatures and precip chances. In fact, we've seen some areas(Aberdeen area and points east) experience slowly rising temps into the low 40s as a westerly wind component has kicked in. The aforementioned cold front is currently poised across the far northern ND and northern MT. The CAA that sets in will usher in much cooler air through the afternoon hours.
Low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s. Abundant sunshine will start the day on Monday: however, mid/high clouds will be on the increase everywhere north of the I-70 corridor as the day progresses as a cold front sinks southward into the area. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s far north around Galesburg. 12z Apr 18 models have all sped up the arrival of the strong cold front on Monday, with all solutions dropping it south of I-70 by evening. With a wave of low pressure developing upstream along the frontal boundary across the southern Plains, think the strongest forcing for overrunning precip will focus to the west of central Illinois for much of Monday night.
229 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A deep upper low centered over Hudson Bay and a large upper trough extending southwest into WY, MT and the Northern Plains will drive a strong cold front southward today. This cold front will drop south to near the NE/SD border by late this afternoon. The strong cold front will drop quickly south through the area tonight.
Cooling will begin along the coast on Monday, and progress inland through midweek as onshore flow strengthens ahead of another trough dropping south through Nevada.
Sunny skies a warmer conditions are expected for Monday. Following a warm and sunny day Monday, a cold front will move through the area Monday evening into early Monday night.
Lows tonight will be cool with readings in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees away from the coast and in the lower to mid 50s along the immediate coast. Highs Monday should warm into the lower to mid 70s.
415 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A dry and warmer Monday will follow this evenings scattered rain showers.
This change in airmass is due to a cold front arriving late tonight that will move into Kansas by sunrise Monday morning.
North winds of 5 to 15 mph this afternoon will become light, and eventually shift south by morning as the high pressure moves east. It will be cooler tonight with lows in the lower 40s. It will be warmer Monday, mainly in he lower 70s, except mid/upper 60s across Crockett, Sutton and Schleicher counties. (Monday night through next Sunday) Monday night, an upper level trough will start to dig south out of the Central Rockies and into the Southern Plains.
Temperatures may remain elevated this evening into tonight until the cold front comes sweeping through. Should snowfall occur, the combo of near to just above freezing surface temps and the high sun angle this time of year should keep travel surfaces just wet.
with regional 12z soundings looking fairly dry in the lower levels, suspect the vast majority of this is just mid-level cloud cover and very little is reaching the sfc and have thus kept any POPs out of the TAFs for now.
This has resulted in dry weather but continued north winds, and some cooler temperatures. These have been warmer than yesterday thanks to the influence of sunshine as readings have reached into the mid to upper 60s and some lower 70s across the region. Another nice day expected tomorrow with no precipitation expected and highs in the lower 70s.
Current forecast is on track with a high pressure ridge situated along the Pacific coast building inland today. Still closely monitoring the breezy winds Monday behind an arctic cold front approaching from the north. A cold front is expected overnight into Monday, with north to northwest winds increasing after 12-15Z.
Significant warm up expected on Monday ahead of unseasonably strong cold front.
Steep low-level lapse rates combined with modest ascent from the trough was yielding sprinkles and isolated rain showers. As the trough progresses east, all precip should move into MO. Afternoon temperatures have warmed into the low 60s.
The upper level low responsible for these showers will zip eastward across Middle Tennessee late today and tonight.
West to southwest pre-frontal winds will be increasing in the mountains and foothills after 06z, with the cold front progged to be along the CO/WY border by 12z, Big changes still in store for Monday with a cold front expected to push through Denver around 15z. Models show moderate mid/upper level QG ascent developing 18z-00z, as a 90kt jet max at 300 mb accompanies the trough. An upper trough will push across the forecast area Monday night with moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft.
Modifying high pressure atop the area tomorrow will make for high temperatures close to average for the date, although some periodic clouds in southern zones could keep readings slightly cooler than otherwise might be the case under full sunshine. Anticipate light winds and highs ranging from the low to mid 70s.
Clouds will clear out on Monday which will allow high temperatures to approach the low to mid 60s across most locations with near 70 degrees in the southern valley.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Temperatures don't get too much cooler than this for mid-April in Deep South Texas. As of 2 PM, temperatures around the BRO CWFA ranged from the lower 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to mid-60s in the Rio Grande Valley. Model guidance is in very good agreement that temperatures will fall into the low-mid 50s everywhere overnight tonight. As a result, cloud cover will increase in the morning and rain chances will increase slightly by the afternoon, especially closer to the trough axis. Slight rain/drizzle chances will continue along the coast Monday night as the coastal trough sticks around. Slightly warmer temperatures are anticipated Monday night with lows generally in the mid-upper 50 and lower 60s.
101 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A cold front moving through the Northland today and tonight is the focus. Models are in good agreement with an elongated area of low pressure moving over the Northland today, and its associated cold front following behind. Vigorous cold air advection behind the low, accompanied by an upper low that closes off, will bring enough forcing to generate some snow showers/flurries from the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin.
At the surface, the cold front has begun crossing SD, with gusty northwesterly winds and falling temperatures across northwestern SD.
The result has been more insolation for the central and western South Plains, which will also result in a slightly warmer afternoon. Off of the Caprock, where skies will be a bit more sunny, temperatures should be able to warm into the low to mid 60's. Radiational cooling conditions will be much better tonight however a slightly warmer airmass will also be in place to limit how cold it can get.
Dry conditions are expected to continue the rest of the day with highs in the low to upper 60s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 47 72 48 75 / 0 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 48 69 46 73 / 0 20 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 68 46 70 46 73 / 10 20 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 43 66 41 71 / 10 20 0 0 20.
This evening, a low level baroclinic zone will be draped from central Montana through southwest North Dakota into northern South Dakota, sloped up in the atmosphere behind a surface cold front which is now well into South Dakota.
220 PM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Cold front continues to track southward across Montana currently, and should be entering northern Wyoming around 6pm. Most lower elevations east of the divide will see some snowfall, but warmer ground temperatures will help travel conditions. With the front exiting southward quickly on Monday, most areas of snow will be ending, except for the highest elevations of the Winds and Bighorns Monday evening.
1048 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper trough will continue sagging swd over NM through 19/12Z. Drier and breezy west winds will return Monday with much warmer temperatures.
However, a northerly wind in the 10 to 15 mph range will make it feel a little cooler. Southwesterly flow aloft, weak low level warm air advection and plenty of sun will result in a warmer day Monday with highs generally in the lower and middle 70s.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level low currently centered near the Four Corners region will slowly track south, reaching northern Mexico by Monday morning. Overnight low temperatures will also be below normal, in the low to mid 40s. (Monday night through next Sunday) Monday night, an upper level trough will start to dig south out of the Central Rockies and into the Southern Plains.
Tonight, clouds will be on the increase from north to south ahead of a cold front that's currently in Montana.
Cool again tonight, with low temperatures generally from the upper 40s to mid 50s, highs Monday in the 70s, and slightly warmer Monday night, similar to SREF mean values/NBM.
Strong PV anomaly coupled with cold front is resulting in much more stable deep dry air arriving with CAA across our north, however this is also supporting a shallow low stratus layer that may complicate temperatures trends through the night (mid 20s with clouds, upper teens if clearing).
1006 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A strong cold front will move through north central Montana today, then through central and southwestern Montana overnight.
1130 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Anchored massive western NOAM ridge will continue to support long trajectory N-S flow over central NOAM through the week. A potent trough will slide down the front of the ridge today, supporting a strong cold front into the region, with accumulating snow tonight and a period of below normal temps after. Mild conds can be expected ahead of the cold front today, with 50s/60s common across the SE half. There will be enough instability present to allow the cold front aloft to support convective showers, possibly a few thunderstorms ahead of the main FGEN band as it settles south. Otherwise, FGEN banding will allow a generally 3-5 inches on the surrounding plains, with local banding supporting the higher end of these amounts.
Cloud cover has diminished somewhat this afternoon, lending to slightly warmer temps than we have seen in previous days.
The cold front will quickly move southward this evening and reach the NE/SD border about 8pm or so then continue to move south through the area overnight.
Onshore flow will strengthen late Monday ahead of another trough dropping south through Nevada, deepening the marine layer.
Overnight, with light winds and mainly clear skies, temperatures will drop into the 30s for the entire CWA before warming into the 50s and 60s on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Timing of the aforementioned cold front during the afternoon hours will be key in temperatures and start of gusty northerly winds.
Although 850 mb temperatures will be about 7-8 degrees Celsius warmer than this morning, excellent radiational cooling conditions will allow for the development of a shallow/sharp temperature inversion. Hence, lows will again fall into the 30s across most of the CWA, with temperatures near or even slightly below freezing possible across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwestern/western South Plains (where subfreezing conditions occurred this morning). Given this, we will continue to advertise the possible of near/below freezing temperatures for spots on the Caprock in a Special Weather Statement, with an emphasis on our northwestern zones. A strong cold front will accompany this system, plowing through the South Plains tomorrow night. Highs Monday will reach the lower to middle 70s for the entire FA.