Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1109 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Hot weather will continue on Tuesday as anomalously strong (~592 dam) and high-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered across the Midwest. The Southern Plains will be on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge with a persistent low-level thermal ridge remaining in place. The magnitude of the low-level thermal ridge does appear to be a little lower than today, so temperatures may not be as hot--especially across the west.
Obs as of 06Z show a cold front slowly moving from northwest Kansas to the north central parts of the state with Syracuse and Scott City's winds turned to the north. Despite the slightly cooler air coming in today it should quickly warm back up as the warm front lifts back into the region by late afternoon and highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s in the north to near 100 along the Oklahoma border. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. Confidence is not high that this will occur but with the low level jet developing.
Anomalously strong upper ridge extending roughly from Houston to Evansville to Detroit will continue to amplify over the next 24 hrs, with the more northern portion retrograding toward the I-55 corridor. Blocking mid-level pattern remains in place for the second half of the work week characterized by above-normal temperatures in the Ohio Valley. Then, the retrograding closed low will move clockwise over the Southeast US while eroding the anomalous ridge. Eventually, a more progressive flow will see the previously-stalled West Coast trough advance to the east and lift what energy is left over from the closed low.
321 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Warmer weather has returned to the region with a vengeance as the upper level ridge continues to build over the region.
259 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Tuesday and Tuesday night A strong ridge over the Central CONUS is contributing to subsidence across the region. The low clouds will begin to dissipate through the morning as mixing increases but clouds may linger through the day.
330 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Dry weather and a warming trend continues as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
135 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will remain anchored in place for most of the week.
1159 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Key Messages: - Severe weather threat this evening A low pressure system over eastern North Dakota is slated to lift northeastward through southern Canada as the associated short wave trough rides up and along the southwest to northeast oriented pressure gradient with ridging holding steady off to the east. Depending on how well surface temperatures reach this afternoon will play a large roll into how quickly storms can develop as a front approaches from the west and the lower atmosphere destabilize.
Obs as of 06Z show a cold front slowly moving from northwest Kansas to the north central parts of the state with Syracuse and Scott City's winds turned to the north. Despite the slightly cooler air coming in today it should quickly warm back up as the warm front lifts back into the region by late afternoon and highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s in the north to near 100 along the Oklahoma border. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s.
(Today) Large scale blocking pattern remains over the CONUS this morning with ridge axis just to our east. (Tonight through Monday) Increase in dry line convection will take place this afternoon over the high plains, but eastward movement will be limited by expansive ridge to our east.
Low pressure centered near the SD/ND/MN border triple point earlier this afternoon with a sharp warm/moist sector will traverse northeast, reaching the Manitoba/Ontario border this evening with its cold front sweeping eastward. The cold front will be aligned along the northern MN/WI border into southeast MN this evening, and it will be in the warm sector near and along this front that will have the focus for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Conditions will become more calm tonight through tomorrow behind the cold front as weak high pressure drops southeast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Skies will partially clear out tonight through tomorrow, but even with peak sunshine, temperatures will top out in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints down into the 40s to lower 50s.
1058 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Our warm up has commenced thanks to upper-level ridging building into the Midwest. With a few more hours of diurnal warming left, we are on track to see widespread values in the low to mid 80s, with portions of central Missouri seeing highs topping out around 90. Temperatures at 850 mb approaching 20 C tomorrow paired with deep mixing will support most locations seeing values right around 90 degrees for afternoon highs, with some locations seeing values in the low to mid 90s.
1010 PM MST Mon May 9 2022 Updated Aviation An expansive trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary just to the northwest of our region through mid week providing a modest cooling trend and continued dry conditions.
1022 PM MDT Mon May 9 2022 The longwave trough across the Intermountain West will begin to oscillate this evening, with southwest flow drawing back northward across WY as the main trough axis deepens along the Pacific Coast. With the slightly warmer temperatures, most precipitation will fall as rain, with snow confined to the highest elevations. A jet max in the southwest flow will bring another day of gusty winds to the state, with widespread gusts above 25, and frequent gusts above 40 for the higher elevations and the wind corridor from RKS to CPR.
245 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Upper ridging has been established over the area and will be with us for the next few days. Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with enough low level moisture for a scattered Cu field. Models have been showing a weak disturbance on the east side of the upper ridging tomorrow.
1254 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level ridge remains in place over Texas this afternoon with cyclonic flow over the state. The low level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass over our CWA.
With the upper ridge drifting a bit west into eastern OK today, the stronger mid-level flow ahead of the west coast trough will be displaced to the northwest of western OK today.
Water vapour had upper trough over western Canada to the west coast. Upper low just off the coast of northern CA. 130kt jet ahead of trough from NV into the northern plains as upper ridge holds firm from TX to the Great Lakes. Activity should wane this morning as flat upper ridge develops over the northern plains. Attention then turns toward aforementioned upper low. Today/tonight, upper low drops into central CA with modest rising heights over the CWA.
341 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure remains firmly anchored over southeastern Canada and the Northeast bringing persistent dry conditions and warming temperatures this week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 61 87 59 86 / 0 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 57 84 55 83 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 85 56 83 / 0 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 49 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0.
308 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Anomalously strong upper ridge extending roughly from Houston to Evansville to Detroit will continue to amplify over the next 24 hrs, with the more northern portion retrograding toward the I-55 corridor. Blocking mid-level pattern remains in place for the second half of the work week characterized by above-normal temperatures in the Ohio Valley. Then, the retrograding closed low will move clockwise over the Southeast US while eroding the anomalous ridge. Eventually, a more progressive flow will see the previously-stalled West Coast trough advance to the east and lift what energy is left over from the closed low.
400 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Today and Tonight: Little change is expected from the persistent forecast of warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather through the period. Surface ridging from the northeast and ridging aloft from the southwest will continue over the region through tonight. This will result in temperatures topping out from the upper 80s east to the lower 90s central and west. Record highs for the date run in the lower 90s at most sites so expect a couple more record highs tied or broken again today. The lows tonight will again range from the lower 60s east to the lower 70s over the delta region. Record warm lows for most sites run in the lower 70s.
438 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Very warm weather will persist for the rest of this week as an upper level ridge develops over the region in response to an amplifying trof well upstream.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper level ridge will continue to expand over the region through the short term period. Chances for rainfall will remain low as well given this ridge being place. Moisture levels will remain high however at the low levels. this week is the first of the year to see heat index values this high.
A broad area of troughing persists over the northwestern U. , so cooler than average and showery weather will continue into the weekend.
323 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 A stacked area of low pressure, the eastern anchor of a block was situated east of the NC Outer Banks. A cool northerly flow rounding this low and high pressure spilling in from NE Canada was producing an east-west temperatures gradient from the coast to the Appalachians. Some of this cooler air was spilling over the higher terrain to our east was making for slightly cooler conditions for our eastern areas. For today, sunny skies and even warmer temperatures given less chance for clouds as was the case yesterday.
Forecast Discussion: At 09Z (4 AM CDT) today, surface observations showed an area of low pressure in north-central Kansas with a weak boundary extending to its east-northeast into southeastern Nebraska. South of that boundary, conditions remained warm and muggy across the CWA with temperatures hovering close to 80 degrees and dew points in the low 70s. The low pressure system and associated boundary look to remain in the vicinity of northeastern KS today, but the front will become somewhat diffuse and forcing looks weak. The high heat will be the main concern this afternoon as an upper ridge expands over the area.
530 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Upper low was situated off the northern CA coast with a trough axis to the south. A high amplitude upper ridge reached from the west/central Gulf Coast into eastern Canada.
Otherwise, a west CONUS trough remains in place, which will produce a series of shower and thunderstorm chances.
Concur with deterministic output that an upper level Omega Block pattern will persist over the CONUS, with the ridge axis across the Midwest-Mississippi Valley-ArkLaTeX-SRN TX during the period. 5 inches this morning to around 1 inch Wednesday, and thus slightly cooler tonight.
1028 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure extends from New England into the Mid-Atlantic.
Models continue to show some light PoP trying to spark as some energy runs down the east side of the upper ridge. Otherwise SKC conditions prevail thru 11/12Z per ridging influences surface and aloft.
307 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 The center of low pressure located over the West Coast will drift southward today causing heights to rise over our area. Through the overnight and tomorrow the low pressure begins to shift eastward causing the pressure gradient to tighten. By the evening the low pressure begins to lift over the region as a negatively tilted trough. Tomorrow night the trough lifts overhead and pushes a cold front through the area.
1020 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Wednesday.
512 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 The center of low pressure located over the West Coast will drift southward today causing heights to rise over our area. Through the overnight and tomorrow the low pressure begins to shift eastward causing the pressure gradient to tighten. By the evening the low pressure begins to lift over the region as a negatively tilted trough. Tomorrow night the trough lifts overhead and pushes a cold front through the area.
Upper level high pressure builds over the southern Mississippi River Valley and southern Ontario and a trough will reside over the western United States. However, this heat will not reach Nebraska as high pressure over Minnesota and South Dakota draws cooler air from the east into the northern Plains. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s in western and north central Nebraska. Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week as maximum temperatures rise into the 80s, reaching the low 90s in southwest Nebraska.
High pressure builds Wednesday with a return to dry and mild weather. Much warmer inland by this weekend as 80s return to the region with potential for low 90s inland. A broad upper level trough remains parked over much of the West Coast. Embedded in the upper trough is a robust cold core upper level low pressure near the Redwood Coast.
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ Upper-level ridging will prevail for the next few days across the Mid- South. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a weak disturbance on the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow. Highs by midweek increase to the low 90s with lows in the 70s.
735 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Dry and warmer weather continues today as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
With a cooler airmass in place across the local area.
1044 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur today under high pressure. Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation will be this weekend with the arrival of an upper level low from the east. Some mid level energy will undercut the established ridge in place over the Ohio Valley today, combining with increased lower level moisture to bring some cloud cover to western and northern reaches of the CWA. South to southeast flow at the surface and increasing heights will help temperatures to rise into the lower 80s. Ridging remains in place tonight. Lows will be several degrees warmer ranging from the low 50s east to the low 60s west.
523 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 A potent yet small cluster of thunderstorms pressed southwest through the Lower Keys earlier this morning. A large mid-latitude cyclone is parked to the east of the Carolinas, but its cyclonic southwestern flank reaches down to near the Bahamas. Lower heights will press east across the Rockies today through Wednesday, which will split the long wave ridge over the central CONUS into two pieces.
Across the northern Front Range foothills and adjacent plains, observations and satellite imagery showing a stratus deck in the 6000-7000ft agl range due to last evenings cold front and shallow upslope flow. The southeast flow will also result in a developing Denver cyclone with northern winds developing North and northwest of Denver and a little cooler temperatures by later this afternoon. An area of enhanced 700mb flow positions over the region during the day as the trough lifts north.
631 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Warmer weather has returned to the region with a vengeance as the upper level ridge continues to build over the region.
948 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Dry and warmer weather continues today as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
Tuesday and Tuesday night A strong ridge over the Central CONUS is contributing to subsidence across the region. The low clouds will begin to dissipate through the morning as mixing increases but clouds may linger through the day. There is low confidence in this scenario due to strong upper ridging, but went ahead and increased POPs to slight chance.
629 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Very warm weather will persist for the rest of this week as an upper level ridge develops over the region in response to an amplifying trof well upstream. An upper level ridge was building over the area and will cause temperatures to rise well above normal today. The upper level ridge will linger over the region for several days, but low level flow will eventually bring drier air with a northeast to east trajectory out of Canada.
Upper ridging has zero intentions of going anywhere with a rather impressive omega block holding firmly in place through Wednesday. What does this mean for us weather wise? Hot and dry! Deep layer northwesterly flow will strengthen in between the large ridge to our west and large upper low off the Carolina coast slowly drifting southward. However, given the Gulf waters are still relatively cooler (not as hot as say September) a solid seabreeze circulation should develop keeping coastal areas more in the low to mid 80s. Lows will remain warm given the improved surface dewpoints with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Dry and warmer weather returns beginning Wednesday. Radar shows a few showers continuing early this morning over Tehama, Glenn and Butte Counties, just to the east of the center of the cold closed low. Current temperatures are mostly a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the 20s in the mountains to the upper 30s and 40s across the Central Valley. The low will drift slowly south to near the Sacramento area this afternoon.
731 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure remains firmly anchored over southeastern Canada and the Northeast bringing persistent dry conditions and warming temperatures this week.
A ridge will continue to meander across the area through the short term. An even warmer day is on tap for Wednesday as the ridge continues to build. However, we will be on the outer periphery of the ridge and could potentially see some isolated showers/storms develop across the north and west.
636 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur today under high pressure. Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation will be this weekend with the arrival of an upper level low from the east. Ridging today will extend from the southern plains northeast through the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. A mid-level impulse moving northeast up the western side of the ridge will spark showers and storms over the upper Midwest. Highs today will reach into the low 80s at most locations. Ridging remains in place tonight. Lows will be several degrees warmer ranging from the low 50s east to the low 60s west.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper low located over Nrn CA this morning will wobble in place today as a ridge remains centered on the TX Coast. The low will move southward tonight before moving across NV Wednesday as the ridge slides northward toward the Great Lakes. May be a couple degrees cooler on Wednesday.
545 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 (Today) Large scale blocking pattern remains over the CONUS this morning with ridge axis just to our east.
655 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure extends from New England into the Mid-Atlantic.
318 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Upper low was situated off the northern CA coast with a trough axis to the south. A high amplitude upper ridge reached from the west/central Gulf Coast into eastern Canada.
/issued 307 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022/ Upper level ridging holds from northeast Mexico to the Great Lakes through Wed as a low slowly tracks southward off the eastern seaboard. Then during the weekend they merge into an east bound upper trough that moves over the eastern states through Mon. Then a low pressure system move into the Gulf and weakens, allowing winds to diminish. A low pressure system approaching from the northeast will begin increasing moisture Thu.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Little change is expected from the persistent forecast of warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather through the period. Surface ridging from the northeast and ridging aloft from the southwest will continue over the region through tonight. This will result in temperatures topping out from the upper 80s east to the lower 90s central and west. Record highs for the date run in the lower 90s at most sites so expect a couple more record highs tied or broken again today. The lows tonight will again range from the lower 60s east to the lower 70s over the delta region. Record warm lows for most sites run in the lower 70s.
Thereafter, the winds will decrease but temperatures will heat up as high pressure builds late in the week and through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal. This evenings 00z VEF sounding did illustrate a fairly stout inversion layer near 600mb which lies just above the ridgeline of the Spring Mountains and may be contributing to the downslope enhancement across the Las Vegas Valley, as well as other locales downwind of terrain features. With a fairly deep 545dm low meandering over Northern California and a swift southwesterly 500mb flow of 60-70knots, the gusty winds will be with us for another couple days until the low finally kicks eastward on Wednesday. The trough over California will finally bottom out Wednesday and lift through the Mojave Desert and into Utah.
This sunshine and southerly flow will still help us warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Given the higher sun angle and longer daylight/heating in mid-May was hesitant to adjust temperatures a whole lot. However, if these clouds linger a little longer than expected we'll probably be a couple degrees cooler than originally thought this afternoon. A slightly warmer day is expected on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 80s east to around 90 over NW Alabama. Also with the warmer conditions, an additional inflow of moisture will also arrive during the mid week. Some of it, upper level moisture and support from older convection to our north, will move southward on the eastern side of upper ridging to our west.
Upper ridging has been established over the area and will be with us for the next few days. Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with enough low level moisture for a scattered Cu field. Models have been showing a weak disturbance on the east side of the upper ridging tomorrow. 850 mb temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Wednesday, so highs should be higher compared to today.
445 AM PDT Tue May 10 2022 Through Wednesday, a low pressure system moving inland through the southwestern states will maintain cool onshore flow with periods of stronger and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts.
Upper trof setting up to the west today with southerly flow aloft allowing some moisture to continue into the region but expect most precipitation in the central mountains this afternoon. Trof moves through region Wednesday and Wednesday with a chance of mainly mountain showers but very light amounts expected.
For these reasons, overnight lows should be quite a bit cooler than the toasty numbers observed over the past couple of mornings.
348 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 The anomalous upper-level ridge will gradually weaken during the latter half of the week as a deep, closed low retrogrades across the southeast CONUS.
This afternoon: A frontal boundary/trough axis was situated across central into north-central Wisconsin. In fact, dewpoint values were approaching or exceeding 70F across portions of the area with temperatures running around 80F or into the low 80s. The boundary is then expected to lift northward Wednesday as a warm front; however, capping in place and fairly week lift will likely lead to a mainly dry day with much quieter weather.
1018 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Low ceilings are more prevalent across west TN and northeast MS this morning, keeping temperatures 5-8 degrees cooler than sites along and west of the MS River. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today with highs in the mid 80s to near 90F. /issued 352 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ Upper-level ridging will prevail for the next few days across the Mid- South. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a weak disturbance on the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow. Highs by midweek increase to the low 90s with lows in the 70s.