Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front is currently pushing through the forecast area, with strong northerly winds and much cooler temperatures behind it. Highs tomorrow will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than those today.
A large upper-level ridge centered over srn California will dominate our weather Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Highs slightly cooler than average on Wednesday (in the 60s) will warm into the 70s for Thanksgiving.
Most places are now in the low 50s, on track to max out between 55-60 degrees later today. Winds will continue to gust to 20-30 mph this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwest winds will become a bit breezy as a cold front approaches. Tonight expect an increase in cloud cover as a cold front passes through the region during the late evening hours. Despite the sunshine, temps will stay on the chilly side with highs in the low to mid 40s expected.
1245 PM PST TUE NOV 21 2017 High pressure aloft will bring hot, dry weather this week.
High pressure will strengthen across the region today, and remain in place through the remainder of the week. Mid level ridging continues to build aloft across the Great Basin region, with remnant moisture streaming along the northern periphery of its expansion. Do anticipate a net decrease in cloud cover for most areas this afternoon as the upstream ridge axis begins to shift overhead and further northward expansion of the ridge occurs, but not completely. This ridge will become the dominant feature across the region through Thanksgiving, and with a combination of overnight cloud cover and warming temperatures aloft, weak valley inversions should erode allowing for a warming trend across all areas through Thanksgiving.
1136 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 18Z TAF issuance Cold front continues to move south across the region this afternoon with gusty northerly winds behind it.
314 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will slide through the entire forecast area by early evening, reaching the Texas Gulf Coast overnight. Overnight lows across the remainder of the region will be in the lower and middle 40s. By Wednesday morning, the cold front will be well south of the forecast area, but north winds and cold advection will continue throughout the day.
Dew points have risen to the low 70s. A weak warm front is lifting from Central Florida to North Florida, and a weak upper level trough is remaining relatively stationary across the Central Gulf. As the warm front continues to lift northward, a dry air mass (evident on MIMIC) will move into the southern gulf and across the Florida Keys, filtering down below the 850 mb level tonight and dropping PWAT accordingly.
Otherwise, we sit and wait for this evening's dry frontal passage to bring additional dry air and temperatures likely a few degrees cooler tomorrow morning.
251 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will approach from the west tonight. The front will push across the area on Wednesday as a small wave of low pressure tracks north along the front. The cold front will continue east into the Maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure to our southeast combined with a cold front approaching from the west will bring a light southerly breeze and a relatively mild night tonight. Clouds will increase late tonight as the cold front gets near. A wave of low pressure tracking north along the front will bring a period of steadier rain Downeast beginning around mid morning and continuing into early Wednesday evening. The front will push east into the Maritimes Wednesday night carrying the low east with it and skies will clear.
In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Central and Eastern U. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s.
Southwest winds will back to southeast this afternoon over the coastal areas and northeast this evening in advance of the next cold front. KCRP VAD wind profile shows the low level flow has veered to southwesterly. Isolated to scattered showers still expected with passage of the short wave trough later tonight along with the cold front.
935 AM PST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure aloft will bring hot, dry weather this week with record highs likely.
South to southwest winds of 8-12 mph are expected through mid afternoon, but will eventually shift from the north as a cold front moves south across the CWA. Winds are expected to increase to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times in the wake of this cold front. Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front from the Upper Midwest back through the Northern Plains while a ridge of high pressure is centered over North Carolina. Water Vapor satellite trends indicate some high clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. This is associated with an upper level trough axis located across the region and upper level ridges over both the Western and Eastern United States.
Cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma late this morning and will pass through the remainder of the area by late afternoon along with clearing skies.
The initial wind shift with the cold front is just about to enter the northwest corner of our region, and should sweep through the entire area by mid-evening. The near zonal flow will become more northwest as an upper level trough and surface cold front approach the region at the end of the week.
The trough axis should then sweep through the forecast area during the day tomorrow. By tomorrow morning, the cold front associated with the upper level trough should be just offshore of Louisiana, and a surge of drier air should begin to feed into the region.
235 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 (Tonight and Wednesday) Cold front has passed across all of West Central Texas late this afternoon, leaving gusty north winds in its wake. With light winds and a dry atmosphere, good radiational cooling conditions are expected near the freezing mark along the I-10 corridor, NW Hill Country, and San Saba and Brown Counties. Lows will be a bit warmer in the mid 30s to lower 40s farther north and west where winds will be stronger.
1239 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Increasing clouds today with a chance for a shower this afternoon as a cold front drops through the region.
326 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Strong cold front that moved through the dvn cwa this morning and brought a brief period of light rain and sleet, extended from lower MI to north TX. Tonight: Canadian high pressure will push into the cwa with winds quickly diminishing by sunset. Wednesday: The high pressure ridge will shift to our southeast allowing winds to back to the southwest. VFR conds through this taf cycle as clearing skies expected as high pressure builds into the area.
High pressure will build in by late this evening, leading to relatively light winds and some quite cold temperatures tonight. Broad lee troughing east of the northern Rockies will promote a quasi stationary front stretching roughly from southern Alberta southeastward through southeast SD. The boundary slides a bit to the east for Thanksgiving, leading to a similar setup as Wednesday but with warmer overall temperatures. Once again am seeing a good warm layer aloft in forecast soundings, but the warmer air is located up around 850mb. Coupled with the lighter expected winds during the afternoon limiting the ability of mixing to gobble up some of the warmer temperatures aloft, will stick closer to consensus for highs.
231 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front continues to move south toward the CWA this afternoon and will reach Walnut Ridge and Corning in the next hour or so.
Expect a partly sunny day with cooler temperatures. The cold front will retreat quickly this morning. Cold temps to start the day, and some remnant cloud cover will keep temps a bit cooler, with highs in expected in the 40s. Ridging aloft builds in fairly quickly, driving temps into the 60s for Wednesday, and a return of mainly dry conditions. Some moisture and energy will slide up the back side of the ridge Wednesday, bringing a chance of precip to the higher elevations.
354 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Showers will end this evening as a cold front moves out of the area. Colder and dry weather is ahead for Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Mid to low level clouds will increase tonight as a cold front treks across the central Pennsylvania. The GFS, NAM and EC all showing a band of 850-700mb fgen forcing within right jet entrance region, resulting in bulk of precip falling in colder air behind surface cold front. The brief period of lake effect snow showers Wed morning will end by mid to late Wednesday morning as the approach of high pressure and falling inversion heights should result in minimal accums early in the day across the western mountains. GEFS mean 8h temps between -4C and -9C should translate to highs from the low 30s across the high terrain of northwest Pa, to the upper 40s across Lancaster Co.
1243 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. While full dry adiabatic mixing is not really supported, a good deal of that momentum should be capable of mixing downward, thus wind gusts were increased into the range of 30 kts through the afternoon, with the highest values expected to the north and in the ridges. Fries Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening and into the overnight hours. Minor snow accumulations are possible, but should be limited mainly to the I 80 corridor and ridges. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures.
239 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front entering NY from the west will bring chilly temperatures and a quick shot of rain and snow showers to our area early Wednesday morning. While Tuesday felt more like a mid-October day with temperatures well into the 50s, a storm system moving out of the Great Lakes will combine with a deepening trof to bring a quick shot of rain and snow showers, then much colder temperatures.
1042 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Moisture flowing the down the back side of the western ridge has led to orographic showers over the northern to central mountains early this morning. Dirty flow on the downstream side of the ridge continues into Wednesday and models want to keep some light precipitation over the northern mountains.
A surface warm front will propagate into the Missouri River Valley between 12-15 UTC Wednesday morning, with an elevated warm layer aloft with the slope of the warm front extending further east into north central North Dakota and the James River Valley. A clipper will propagate along the low level baroclinic zone from northwest to southeast across the state through the day. Thus, the potential for a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow has also shifted north compared to yesterday, now across extreme northwest North Dakota and through the north central along and north of US Highway 2. While QPF amounts are light, even a small amount of freezing rain will impact travel.
300 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure will be the primary influence on the weather of eastern Kentucky in the short term. The passing system tonight will usher some cooler air into the area, so highs on Wednesday are expected to only top out in the 40s across the area. Ridging will remain the dominant feature across the Desert Southwest, with persistent troughing across The Pacific Northwest and the East. Cool high pressure will build in across the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day.
312 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front entering NY from the west will bring chilly temperatures and a quick shot of rain and snow showers to our area early Wednesday morning. While Tuesday felt more like a mid-October day with temperatures well into the 50s, a storm system moving out of the Great Lakes will combine with a deepening trof to bring a quick shot of rain and snow showers, then much colder temperatures.
This lee trough transitions across the region by Wednesday evening. Amplified north northwesterly flow aloft late this afternoon through tonight precedes the strong upper ridge that moves over the Rockies on Wednesday. Highs near 70 are possible following overnight lows from the lower 20s to around 30. Amplified ridge centered over the Rockies will dominate through the weekend.
146 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Brisk north winds prevailing over the region this afternoon following the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. Meanwhile, latest satellite shots show a fair amount of clearing across the area this afternoon which will set the stage for strong radiational cooling later tonight after winds weaken and high pressure arrives from the northwest. From a sensible weather standpoint, very little in the way to get excited about this week as high pressure remains in control through the Thanksgiving holiday. In fact, much of our upcoming weather will be influenced by building heights aloft as West Coast ridging breaks down and warm air slides downstream over the Great Plains through late week.
That being said, have left some lowish POPs in the grids ahead of the next cool front and upper trof that'll be moving thru overnight. Cooler and breezy conditions will arrive overnight, and the next shift(s) may need to keep an eye on speeds closest to the coast where some guidance suggests values nearing wind advisory criteria toward sunrise. Mid/upper ridge centered near Baja will expand north and east, putting us in a deep northerly flow aloft. Extended grids were generally left as-is and agree w/ the previous forecaster that daytime highs in the early part of the weekend will probably be warmer than the blends indicate. 47 Winds will pick up overnight tonight with the passage of a cold front through the bays and gulf waters.
Overnight lows will be below freezing across most of our forecast area.
An upper level ridge remains anchored in place just off the southeastern U. This ridge helps to keep the CWA under NW flow, hence the numerous fronts that are expected to push thru the area. With swly flow ahead of an approaching front on Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Tilly As cold front moves through winds to veer to the northwest to north and become gusty. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: As cold front moves through winds to veer to the northwest to north and become gusty.
A cold front is pushing through the Panhandles this afternoon, with virga showers associated with parts of the front with the best lift. As a result of the lower winds, along with a 1035mb high pressure area approaching the area, overnight low temperatures this evening should drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
302 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 The cold front will sweep out of our southeast counties by early this evening, but not before dropping some flurries or sprinkles across our northern and eastern counties this afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight, to less than 10mph, as the pressure rises weaken and the center of high pressure gets closer to Illinois from the Plains. Plenty of cold air will settle into the area behind the front, with lows dropping into the low to mid 20s. Full sunshine will not be of much help, as the cold Canadian air limits the highs to the mid to upper 30s.
More higher altitude clouds otherwise were moving across the Tennessee Valley from the west; part of a trough extending south of Hudson Bay located upper system swinging by. A strong but dry cold front will be moving across the Valley during the night time. Colder air behind the front will take a bit to arrive, but will make for a cold predawn of Wednesday, with lows falling into the lower and mid 30s. After mild conditions today, highs on Wednesday will barely reach the lower 50s.
226 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front has moved through the area today bringing gusty northeast winds and very dry air. Clearing skies and light winds tonight will allow temps to drop to near freezing across southeast New Mexico, the Davis Mountains, and the Permian Basin while being marginally warmer in the Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
Otherwise mainly dry overnight through Weds night other than a few possible snow showers over the higher mtns into Weds morning. Warmer over the plains Weds as the warmer downslope winds spread east across the Panhandle. Mild and mainly dry weather seen for the CWA as upper ridging will be the prevalent feature influencing the weather.
305 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 This afternoon, the cold front was located upstream and stretched from central IN southwest across southern MO.
257 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Cold front will surge through area late this afternoon/early this evening. Lift from upper trough forcing this front aided to some degree by right entrance region of H25 jet streak lifting up east side of the trough will maintain a band of rain showers along and immediately behind this front. Colder air will settle into the area behind this front, with lows in the low/mid 20s tonight and highs no better than the middle 30s on Wednesday as the core of this cold airmass settles over the central Great Lakes.
/issued 343 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ The upper level ridge currently parked over the West Coast will continue to amplify today. High temperatures today and tomorrow will be slightly cooler than yesterday thanks to the cold front but, still warmer than typical November high temperatures. The warmer than normal high temperatures and continued dry environment will make for another elevated Fire Weather day.
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast, a trough on the Gulf Coast, a trough dropping into the upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough digs into the lower Great Lakes tonight. Main threat from this system will be gusty winds (possibly approaching advisory criteria in some spots) both ahead of and behind the low, but details with that will be dependent on track and strength which are both still in question. A strong low pressure system will track eastward just north of Lake Superior this morning.
1255 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday through the end of the week.
Upper level trough continues to swing across the area today with an approaching weak frontal boundary. With limited moisture, expecting a mainly dry fropa with just a slight chance for some drizzle/light showers across the higher terrain through the overnight hours.
331 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Low pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east and drag a cold front across the local area this evening.
1200 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Varying MVFR cigs have developed this morning across much of E TX and have begun to move into Wrn LA attm, and may briefly affect portions of extreme SW AR (including TXK) through mid afternoon before low level winds quickly veer Nrly ahead of a cold front that will enter the region. The elevated cigs will also clear with the attendant upper trough passage late, with SKC expected areawide through the end of the 18Z TAF period before some thin cirrus begins to spill S into NE TX/SE OK/SW AR later in the day.
This airmass was fairly chilly with current temperatures in the lower to middle 20s across central and eastern South Dakota. The center of the high pressure will move south across central Kansas overnight. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 50s over south central Kansas, closer to the center of the high pressure, to the mid 60s along the Colorado border where some weak downsloping will be in place. A strong high pressure ridge aloft will dominate the weather pattern over the western CONUS through much of the holiday weekend.
202 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A weak wave of low pressure will shift NE from the Gulf of Mexico to offshore the Carolinas, proving a slight chance of light rain through early tonight.
Latest WPC surface analysis shows a trough located in the Gulf of Mexico, accompanied by a warm front draped from central Florida eastward over the Atlantic. As the trough lifts northeast this afternoon, convection will be mainly confined to areas north of our CWA. Expect the lower vis to continue through sunrise, therefore, short tempo group was added to reflect the lower vis this morning. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the amplifying mid-level trough shifts eastward with associated clouds and convection. Slightly warmer temperatures and additional cloud cover are also expected today.
Otherwise, we sit and wait for this evening's dry frontal passage to bring additional dry air and temperatures likely a few degrees cooler tomorrow morning. However, recently calculated forecast RH values look like they should only bottom out in the low 30s this afternoon. A dry cold front passes today so this will be a cloud and wind forecast for the next 24 hours. As the cold front approaches gusty south to southwest winds are expected this afternoon areawide.
300 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front will pass through tonight into early Wednesday, while weak low pressure moves up the coast. High pressure will build back overhead later Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day.
Big story will be the gusty north winds behind a cold front. /issued 546 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ /12Z TAFS/ The main aviation concern is with the gusty north winds expected to occur in the wake of a cold frontal passage this afternoon. Winds will shift to the north with the cold frontal passage. /issued 353 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and bring gusty winds from the north.
241 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure extended from the northern plains into the lower Missouri Valley at 20Z with a pool of very cold air located over the area this afternoon. The center of the high pressure will drift southeast tonight and be over the lower Missouri Valley by Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to diminish through the evening as the high moves into the area and become light by late tonight. Warmer air will begin to spread back into the area on Wednesday as the high continues its track southeast toward the Ohio and lower Mississippi Valley and low level flow becomes southerly over the central plains region.
A weak coastal surface trof is also noted in the surface analysis this afternoon. The cold front is still situated well to the north of the area but is rapidly moving to the south.
252 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Weak high pressure off the southeast coast will continue to build away from the forecast area, and surface winds will shift to the north and northwest overnight. The tail end of a longwave trough will shift across north Georgia through tomorrow afternoon. The trough will help pull an inverted surface wave just south of the forecast area through early tomorrow evening. These features will bring a quick shot of increased moisture across the area tonight, with some clearing beginning in the northwest by mid morning tomorrow as cool high pressure builds into north Georgia.
228 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. A cold front will then start its slide toward the area, bringing first high clouds into the area. However, cold advection will yield overnight lows near freezing over most of PA/WV/MD, and in the upper 20s in Ohio. However, upper troughing will remain in place, which will preclude substantial warming, thus temperatures looks to slowly migrate toward the 40s through the remainder of the week.
256 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday through the end of the week.
253 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 226 PM CST The cold front quickly pushing across the region extends from northern Indiana through central Illinois at 230PM CST. Temperatures tonight should drop into the lower to middle 20s across area, with some isolated upper teens possible in sheltered low-lying areas. With high pressure building in from the west tomorrow, winds should be relatively light through the day and even with ample sunshine, temperatures tomorrow will only reach into the lower to middle 30s.
Strong southwest to northeast jet stream pushing into Montana tonight will flood warmer air from west to east tonight into Wednesday. The 12z models showed lesser chances of freezing rain for tonight and thus lowered PoPs. Winds crank up a bit Wednesday and followed the NBM closer, which gave stronger winds to the higher elevations (i.