Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper trough will bring rain showers primarily to the far northeastern zones around Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Roseau counties. More significantly, winds behind the trough will become quite breezing over the Devils Lake basin.
High pressure will move east of the region through tonight.
253 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 A cold front has worked through the area and this will provide a cooler day today. Expected highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. Cooler temperatures should allow for higher humidity.
946 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Gusty wind today has removed haze over much of the Pacific Northwest today as a dry cold front moves through. A change is expected over the upcoming weekend bringing wetter, cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions. Today through Sunday: After the dry cold front moving thru the area bringing improved ventilation via gusty southwest winds along with some remote spotty sprinkles clears the area this evening the ridge influencing the area will rebound and amplify some.
251 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 After some patchy early morning fog, high pressure moving from the lower Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic states will provide us with clear skies and light winds today and tonight.
1213 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 (This evening through Monday) Slightly cooler conditions will continue across the area for the remainder of this afternoon. Otherwise, look for a cool night in the low to mid 50s.
Temperatures will moderate through the week and mainly dry conditions expected as high pressure dominates until late in the week. Temperatures will be about a category warmer today than yesterday with air mass modification and filtered sunshine through higher clouds. Tonight, the next upper trough will dig into the OH/TN valleys and result in moisture being pulled back inland from the coast as PWATs rise to around 1. Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer than tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows at night in the lower to mid 50s.
06z surface map placed 1027 mb high pressure just south of St. Louis with the ridge axis extending north into northern IL. Clear skies and light winds have allowed efficient cooling and 2 am readings in the low/mid 30s were common (coldest temps since May 9th for most of the area). Some spots will dip below freezing for a short time over the next few hours. The high will sink south into the Ohio Valley this afternoon, and return southerly flow develops ahead of a front over the upper Midwest. Highs to be warmer than recent days but still several degrees below normal, in the low/mid 60s.
Another upper level ridge will build over Western Washington Monday.
315 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure at the surface will begin to shift east of the region today with light southeast winds developing under sunny skies. Warming trend will continue for the next few days as broad upper ridge begins to build over the southern Plains.
Details of temperatures and little muddled by the trough position as the NAM/HIRes models favoring considerable not as warm temperatures out ahead of the trough as the MOS. By the evening, a cold front will move though the area pushing out all the 20-22 deg C 850 mb level air. Models area averaging about 5+ degrees F or so cooler, in the 40s out west and 50s east in general.
/issued 845 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ Skies have cleared across the Mid-South this evening as high pressure is beginning to build into the region. /issued 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ A cold front moved through most of the Midsouth today. North wind behind the front along with clearing skies and a drier airmass will result in much cooler temperatures tonight.
As high pressure builds across the area today, VFR conditions are forecast at all sites during the second half of the forecast period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 50 79 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 49 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 48 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 46 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0.
These conditions will combine to produce cold low temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the eastern Ozarks by sunrise today due to radiational cooling. The highest wind gusts of 20-30 mph late this morning into afternoon and, subsequently, the most significant warming is posed to occur over southeastern Kansas and western Missouri where highs will reach into the low to mid 70s.
The onset of daytime heating should allow for an increase in low level mixing which should cause these low clouds to sct out, as the weak cold front continues to move SE away from the area. A very weak influx of cooler/drier air out of the north should briefly spread into the mid TN Valley later today, as another large dome of high pressure out of the nrn/mid Plains states builds into much of the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Afternoon highs look to trend more in the lower 70s/near 70F for most spots, under mostly sunny skies. A broad upper trough pattern over the NE CONUS will also give way to weak upper ridging over the SE Gulf region.
The trough axis will pick up speed tonight and swing over eastern PA shortly before dawn. Minor ridging in the upper level flow, and an ejection of the colder air aloft, will support a decrease in cloud cover from west to east through the morning and early afternoon hours.
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 WV imagery shows the west coast upper ridge has developed a little farther east over the past 24 hours, and is now centered over AZ. Meanwhile, a trough east of the MS Valley is approaching the eastern seaboard, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under persistent NW flow aloft. Yesterday's cold front had little effect but to mitigate afternoon highs a little, which still came in a few degrees above normal. Today temps will rebound to around 10F above normal or better as thicknesses increase as the ridge continues developing into the region.
419 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will slowly build into NY and PA this afternoon, bringing an end to our sprinkles and light showers. Light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off today as high pressure pushes into NY and PA. Model soundings suggest clouds will remain stubborn through the morning hours, then give way to afternoon clearing as temperatures rise into the lower 60s.
501 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern U. The trough over the Canadian Prairies heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and this remains over the area tonight. Models suggest that the pattern will become more zonal toward the end of the week as troughing from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes lifts off to the northeast and the western CONUS ridge gives way to a trough moving into the western CONUS from the eastern Pacific.
507 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 The ridge centered on the SW US will remain persistent through the next 36 hours, generally deflecting any significant weather systems to the north. A weak cold front will move across eastern and central WY this morning, hanging up along the Continental Divide by noon. High temperatures today behind the front will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler, but still remaining a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Southern WY will remain in the drier and warmer airmass south of the front, with gusty west winds expected through the afternoon.
928 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Another picture perfect fall day for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure overhead will result in mostly sunny skies. Light winds out of the north around 5 to 10 mph will keep afternoon high temperatures in the low 70s today, but with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s, it will feel quite nice outside. A broad upper trough pattern over the NE CONUS will also give way to weak upper ridging over the SE Gulf region.
Corrected Trough Timing WV imagery shows the west coast upper ridge has developed a little farther east over the past 24 hours, and is now centered over AZ. Meanwhile, a trough east of the MS Valley is approaching the eastern seaboard, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under persistent NW flow aloft. Yesterday's cold front had little effect but to mitigate afternoon highs a little, which still came in a few degrees above normal. Today temps will rebound to around 10F above normal or better as thicknesses increase as the ridge continues developing into the region.
634 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Only change for early morning update was to adjust cloud cover a bit with current conditions as cold front continues to push through the area. Current surface analysis places low over northern Manitoba into western Hudson Bay, with cold front dropping to the southwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the western conus, with modest short wave pushing into the northern plains. Another wave makes its way through the region on Tuesday, but this time the higher winds look to be more over northeastern portions of the area.
No chances of precipitation are in the forecast with upper ridging building overhead into late week.
330 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Dry weather with unseasonably hot temperatures continues early this week, then much cooler with a chance of precipitation by the end of the week. Clear skies cover the region early this morning as strong ridging continues to extend from the Desert Southwest into NorCal. Not a whole lot of change expected today and Tuesday as high pressure persists.
332 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 The ridge centered on the SW US will remain persistent through the next 36 hours, generally deflecting any significant weather systems to the north. A weak cold front will move across eastern and central WY this morning, hanging up along the Continental Divide by noon. High temperatures today behind the front will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler, but still remaining a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Southern WY will remain in the drier and warmer airmass south of the front, with gusty west winds expected through the afternoon.
Details of temperatures and little muddled by the trough position as the NAM/HIRes models favoring considerable not as warm temperatures out ahead of the trough as the MOS. By the evening, a cold front will move though the area pushing out all the 20-22 deg C 850 mb level air. Models area averaging about 5+ degrees F or so cooler, in the 40s out west and 50s east in general. The cold front from the previous night will usher in only a marginally cooler airmass - tempering highs slightly on Tuesday afternoon despite a rapid return to southwesterly surface winds in the west. Highs will only be a few degrees cooler, and afternoon highs should still be in the low 80s area wide.
Very weak echoes over Turtle Mtns not expecting to have any precipitation reach the ground with better chance for any rainfall this afternoon as upper trough moves across Lake of the Woods. The upper trough will bring rain showers primarily to the far northeastern zones around Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Roseau counties. More significantly, winds behind the trough will become quite breezing over the Devils Lake basin.
Northern and western Nebraska will be somewhat cooler but still well above normal in the upper 70s and 80s. Upper level ridging across the western U.
416 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Current surface analysis places low over northern Manitoba into western Hudson Bay, with cold front dropping to the southwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the western conus, with modest short wave pushing into the northern plains. Another wave makes its way through the region on Tuesday, but this time the higher winds look to be more over northeastern portions of the area.
620 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will slowly build into NY and PA this afternoon, bringing an end to our sprinkles and light showers. Light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off today as high pressure pushes into NY and PA. Model soundings suggest clouds will remain stubborn through the morning hours, then give way to afternoon clearing as temperatures rise into the lower 60s. High pressure will give us a beautiful autumn day on Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow today will result in slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday and afternoon breezes. High pressure remains on track to keep above normal temperatures and dry conditions for this week.
The ridge wl begin to weaken on Tue, allowing a warming trend to commence heading into the middle of the week.
/Issued 315 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020/ High pressure at the surface will begin to shift east of the region today with light southeast winds developing under sunny skies. Warming trend will continue for the next few days as broad upper ridge begins to build over the southern Plains.
After some patchy early morning fog, high pressure moving from the lower Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic states will provide us with clear skies and light winds today and tonight. Highs today will be in the 60s, about ten degrees cooler than normal. With the core of the high being to our east tonight, it won't be quite as chilly as last night with lows around 40. This will allow temperatures to warm nicely through midweek after a cooler start to the week.
Temperatures will moderate through the week and mainly dry conditions expected as high pressure dominates until late in the week. Temperatures will be about a category warmer today than yesterday with air mass modification and filtered sunshine through higher clouds. Tonight, the next upper trough will dig into the OH/TN valleys and result in moisture being pulled back inland from the coast as PWATs rise to around 1. Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer than tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Majority of the cwa should remain dry, but an inverted trough off the southeastern coast may bring enough moisture inland across eastern SC/GA to possibly produce isolated showers through the day on Tuesday and Tuesday evening across extreme eastern counties.
804 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will slowly build into NY and PA this afternoon, bringing an end to our sprinkles and light showers. Light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off today as high pressure pushes into NY and PA. Model soundings suggest clouds will remain stubborn through the morning hours, then give way to afternoon clearing as temperatures rise into the lower 60s. High pressure will give us a beautiful autumn day on Tuesday.
453 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot High pressure currently exists over the southwestern quarter of the CONUS sneaking upward into the southern half of the Pacific Northwest.
937 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Weak low pressure passes through the region this morning.
636 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 12Z TAFS High pressure will continue to build across the region this morning. Skies were mostly clear during the night with temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
This southerly flow will also usher in warmer temperatures for the afternoon today and have pushed temperatures to the upper half of available guidance, or mid 70s to lower 80s. Not much of note thru much of the extended periods of the forecast with mid/upper level ridging amplifying to our west and shifting eastward thru the week.
This evening and overnight, a dry upper wave in the westerlies will dig through, which will begin pushing a weak cold front/surface boundary into northwest Oklahoma by sunrise Tuesday.
Clouds have been decreasing this morning in most areas behind cold front but have been slow to clear across the big lakes and associated valleys across extreme southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina this morning. Temperatures were warmer this morning than previous mornings with cloud cover overnight mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs today should be a few degrees cooler behind the front. The highs will be in the mid 60s extreme northeast and higher elevations to mid 70s near Chattanooga. Predominant VFR conditions and light winds are forecast at all sites today with high pressure across the region.
High pressure aloft continues to dominate the weather.
These conditions will combine to produce cold low temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the eastern Ozarks by sunrise today due to radiational cooling.
06z surface map placed 1027 mb high pressure just south of St. Louis with the ridge axis extending north into northern IL. Clear skies and light winds have allowed efficient cooling and 2 am readings in the low/mid 30s were common (coldest temps since May 9th for most of the area). Some spots will dip below freezing for a short time over the next few hours. The high will sink south into the Ohio Valley this afternoon, and return southerly flow develops ahead of a front over the upper Midwest. Highs to be warmer than recent days but still several degrees below normal, in the low/mid 60s. This leaves the area in a continued west/southwest gradient flow and the resulting warm advection should finally push highs a few degrees above normal, into the low and mid 70s.
Surface ridging builds across the area today as the surface cold front shifts to our east.
628 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern U. The trough over the Canadian Prairies heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and this remains over the area tonight. Models suggest that the pattern will become more zonal toward the end of the week as troughing from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes lifts off to the northeast and the western CONUS ridge gives way to a trough moving into the western CONUS from the eastern Pacific.
These winds are in response to the strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the primary cold front, still north of the region pushing south out of Montana.
The trough will advect dry air into the region from the northwest, resulting in relative humidity as low as 10 to 15 percent in far southwest Nebraska. As air aloft compresses behind the trough, afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s across most of the area, possibly reaching the low 90s in parts of southwest Nebraska. The upper level ridge will persist through the rest of the week, keeping temperatures in the 70s to 80s, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
A trough, evident with a narrow band of mid to upper level clouds, is pushing into western Minnesota. Aside from the brief window of increased clouds and a slight wind shift to the west, very little sensible weather change will accompany the trough. The airmass behind the front will actually be warmer Tuesday. 925 mb temps will increase into the lower 20s C from the upper 10s C of today. This should give surface temps a boost to the lower 80s across western MN and lower 70s in WI. Westerly flow will steadily strengthen through the day before another cold front sags south through the area Tuesday evening. Lighter wind and slightly cooler temperatures will result, as will the anomalously dry conditions seen this fall. The high will push off to the east to the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley late week.
An upper level trough will move through the region late tonight and Tuesday morning.
250 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 A trough slumped across the central CONUS has produced stronger winds aloft as a jet noses across the Northern Rockies. High pressure builds back over the Four Corners region on Tuesday, which should relax winds aloft. Temperatures may fluctuate a touch warmer in response to the ridge sliding back overhead, but none-the-less, our unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern continues.
211 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will bring fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through Tuesday.
An inverted trough will develop over the region through Tuesday, extending northeast from tropical system in the gulf. This trough will keep the flow of moisture aloft from the southwest going through the period.
Meanwhile, the upper trough digging into the Great Lakes region will present a more zonal upper flow over the Southeast.
For tonight, a surface boundary stretching southwestward from the aforementioned low pressure system will slide through the forecast area along with an upper level trough axis.
121 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern U. The trough over the Canadian Prairies heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and this remains over the area tonight. Models suggest that the pattern will become more zonal toward the end of the week as troughing from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes lifts off to the northeast and the western CONUS ridge gives way to a trough moving into the western CONUS from the eastern Pacific.
Weak cold front continues to push across the CWA this morning shifting winds to the northwest and bringing isolated light rain showers. With RH in the low 30s and winds in the 20s, conditions could become near critical at times. Only change for early morning update was to adjust cloud cover a bit with current conditions as cold front continues to push through the area. Current surface analysis places low over northern Manitoba into western Hudson Bay, with cold front dropping to the southwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the western conus, with modest short wave pushing into the northern plains. Another wave makes its way through the region on Tuesday, but this time the higher winds look to be more over northeastern portions of the area.
We will be under the influence of an upper ridge and continued dry air through tonight and Tuesday, limiting any chance for precipitation. 0 ft MSL and while it is marginal, if any shift in track of the tropical cyclones in the Gulf occurs, coastal flooding is possible.
The highest winds look to come for northern, central, and eastern ND. Through the work week we see weak to flat ridging across the area.
Temperatures won't be impacted much by the cold frontal passage tomorrow and temperatures should quickly bounce back to climb into the mid and upper 80s by afternoon.
320 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern U. The trough over the Canadian Prairies heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and this remains over the area tonight. This low looks to lack significant moisture, but given it'll be aided by left exit dynamics at 300mb, some widespread rain showers are still expected. Through Tuesday night, the showers will progress from west to east along the surface cold front.
High pressure has settled in the wake of a dry cold front that has sagged south along the northern Gulf Coast. With less than an inch PWs & some slight cooling in thermal profiles, limited cloud cover is expected, other than some slow decaying stratus along the Highway 25 corridor. Highs will generally below normal in the low-mid 70s north of Interstate 20 to near 80 degrees in the Pine Belt.
The warming trend which starts today will continue through the week as a broad upper ridge shifts eastward from the southwestern US.
With dew points remaining in the lower 40s through much of the day, expect fire danger to increase as mixed layer grows and 20-30 knots of wind aloft mixes towards the surface. Dry and mild conditions continue as ridge across the west spills into the Plains.
Another picture perfect fall day for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure overhead will result in mostly sunny skies. Light winds out of the north around 5 to 10 mph will keep afternoon high temperatures in the low 70s today, but with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s, it will feel quite nice outside. A broad upper trough pattern over the NE CONUS will also give way to weak upper ridging over the SE Gulf region.
249 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will be over the area through Tuesday with above normal temperatures continuing.
145 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 VFR conditions are expected this cycle as high pressure influence spills across the terminals. Winds trend upward Tuesday morning with gusts to around 20 knots as lower troposphere winds associated with a large trough aloft push through a dry cold front with continued VFR skies. A midlevel trough is forecasted to arrive and push across the Lake Superior region Monday night and Tuesday. The structure of the midlevel trough is rather diffuse with little in the way of synoptic scale forcing for ascent.