Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
406 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler and breezy conditions today along with a chance for light showers. Currently, northwest flow aloft with an embedded S/WV and sfc cold front over northern North Dakota. Cold front will be driven south across the remainder of the state this morning followed by a somewhat more defined S/WV sliding southeast across the region this afternoon/early evening.
The cold front has now pushed into the northwest corner of Minnesota and is nearing the Fargo-Moorhead area as well. Currently, a weak cold front extended from northeast North Dakota back through west central North Dakota. Kept ceilings VFR today, although KTVF and KBJI may drop into the lower end of VFR this afternoon.
Short wave mid level ridging today will allow for pleasant conditions across the area with temperatures expected to rise quickly into the mid 60s this afternoon.
/issued 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/ Upper low near the 4 Corners Region this morning with a secondary trough swinging across Srn CA. The low will track E across the TX/OK Panhandles today with the trough moving into the area tonight. After trough passes east will have brief ridging over the area Sunday.
Temperatures this morning have dropped into the upper 20s in a few places, and the southward extent of the sub- freezing temperatures is greater than initially forecast, stretching as far south as I-40. Dry and even warmer weather will return for the beginning of the work week, as the area will be between storm systems.
Latitudinally oriented upper trough extends from ERN CO to SRN CA and it is the subtropical jet which is responsible for the aforementioned approaching disturbance. Overnight what is effectively a Pacific front will shift winds to a more westerly direction followed by a modest cold front due in around sunrise Sunday and a back-door frontal surge late Sunday afternoon.
Gusty southwest winds will continue through late this evening ahead of a cold front. This high is expected to bring cooler and drier air to the forecast area, resulting in clearing skies by the afternoon and below normal high temperatures.
231 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Drier air will filter into the area this afternoon and evening behind a cold front.
The main cold front has moved through the CWA, with breezy northwest winds and cold air advection, although there has been enough mixing and sunshine to still boost temps in the 50s a bit higher than expected. A trough developing to our north in response to this will shift winds to the southwest again.
254 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2020 A secondary mid-level short wave trough combined with jet divergence working on a conditionally unstable atmosphere will continue to bring scattered showers to the region this evening. Moisture will continue to stream eastward over the region ahead of a weakening closed mid-level low pressure system moving southward from the northern Intermountain West to the Great Basin on Sunday. Weak perturbations moving through a weak transitory ridge aloft, combined with upper-level divergence and steepening lapse rates are expected to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area with the afternoon period favored. The mid-level closed low to the west opens and weakens as it begins to move eastward over the Great Basin during the night.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue for the remainder of the weekend as widespread night and morning low cloudiness persists.
200 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Cold front currently dropping in across northern MN will continue to sink southeast through the afternoon, sliding across and through the forecast area tonight.
139 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Drier air will filter into the area this afternoon and evening behind a cold front.
1248 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Sunny skies will allow temperatures to recover into the low to mid 50s by later this afternoon.
A cold front will swing through the Dakotas today. H85 temps will fall to -4C tonight and Sunday resulting in some cooler temps at the sfc behind this front. That will be reinforced by persistent upper troughing.
Dry and breezy to windy conditions have also developed across most locations to the west of the Pecos River, particularly across the higher terrain and adjacent plains, where elevated fire weather conditions are expected through this afternoon.
Clouds will build into the region overnight ahead of a Low pressure system that will pass through the se US on Sunday.
402 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure will pass off to the southeast tonight.
1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Water vapor satellite this morning show a low amplitude short wave trough near Lake Winnipeg with another over Alberta. A cold front was just entering North Dakota and these waves will propel this across the area tonight. With the low amplitude to the short wave trough, the pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer is expected to stay well to the north of the area. 00Z HREF seem to confirm this with only some spotty activity shown along the front as it passes through the area with the better coverage remaining farther north closer to the short wave trough. Sunday will be cooler than today with afternoon high temperatures being around 10 degrees lower.
An inland advancing warm front will provide enough lift to produce interior scattered showers and thunderstorms. The warm front washes out this evening and any lingering northern county convection will weaken while periods of more southern county light precipitation (primarily drizzle or a light shower) hangs on through sunrise.
Our concerns will turn to fire weather for the next several days as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Main short wave trough will exit to the southeast late this afternoon. A cold front will move to around the GA/FL this evening and stall. There will be a chance across mainly northeastern counties this evening due to convergence along the cold front. The stalled boundary will slowly begin to lift north overnight as a warm front. Rain chances will increase toward morning along the warm front. Upper energy will move along the warm front Sunday morning, enhancing precipitation coverage and increasing thunderstorm chances, along with the potential for strong storms.
NW winds continue to advect cooler and drier air across the area. Drier air will be dominant in the lower levels through the remainder of the forecast while upper level moisture increases late ahead of the next storm system. The cold front is just making its way through the Great Valley at this hour with widespread light to moderate showers advancing quickly across the Southern Appalachian Region. Quiet night expected with lows ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower and middle 40s south.
A cold front will move through the TAF sites overnight switching the winds around to the northwest and north. A weak cold front is expected to move across the terminals tonight with northwest to north winds in its wake.
Cloud cover will clear from west to east throughout the day Sun behind a cold front, and with subsidence following the trough.
139 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure to build in from the west, offering dry and cool weather today.
NW winds continue to advect cooler and drier air across the area. Cigs decrease from SW to NE Sunday morning as moisture from an approaching area of low pressure advects into the region. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 65 54 70 48 / 20 80 80 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 65 52 67 47 / 10 80 80 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 64 51 68 45 / 10 80 80 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 66 48 65 43 / 0 70 80 20 0.
312 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine Low pressure moving across southern Canada will bring a cold front with scattered showers late tonight.
1259 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Clouds have cleared out and winds were light over the CWA early this morning as high pressure was centered over southern Missouri. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s, so will leave the going frost advisory/freeze warning as is through 9 am. The high will move off to the east today which will cause warm air advection to begin later today. Ahead of the trough, strong low level moisture convergence will cause showers to develop late tonight into Sunday as this system moves across the area. Have kept the highest PoPs south of I-70 with model MUCAPES showing some modest MUCAPE late tonight into tomorrow over parts of central and southeast Missouri.
Trend should be for coverage to diminish as front loses baroclinicity and transitions to warm front later this evening. This boundary will be transitioning to warm front through tonight and migrate northward, with marine layer cloudiness to prevail, varying between MVFR and VFR through about 06Z then lowering into IFR levels overnight.
18/18Z Initial vfr conditions will give way to increasing clouds and showers/storms developing by late evening into the overnight hours as a warm front lifts back toward Arkansas.
Otherwise quiet weather conditions and a nice warming trend expected until mid week when an upper low arrives from the southwest.
Given the high dewpoints approaching 60 for much of the county warning area, low temperatures were raised several degrees above guidance, so this will be a fairly mild night. As upper ridging builds back in to west Texas and a weak cold front dips into northern and eastern Texas, strong westerly winds will develop by late morning. High temperatures were bumped up to the mid to upper 80s for most areas, except for the Big Country, where the cold front will have much more influence.
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure overhead has resulted in sunny skies and light winds this afternoon.
High pressure will drift southeastward across the Northern Plains and into the middle Mississippi River Valley Sunday with lighter winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for the Northland. Temperatures Sunday will trend a bit cooler with highs in the upper 30s in the eastern portions of the Arrowhead and the upper 40s from central Minnesota east into northwest Wisconsin.
The northern branch upper jet remains in place over the northern Plains with another wave ushering a cold front south into northern Nebraska. Isentropic lift via the upper wave and ahead of the cold front is focused south of east-central Kansas, while decent upper forcing from wave late tonight into Sunday morning encounters modest moisture in central portions of the state. Winds steadily drop off ahead of the front tonight with modest cold-air advection on NNE winds and some early-day cloud keeping Sunday's highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Lastly, fog could become a bigger factor by this evening and overnight mainly along the Coastal Bend as a warm front lifts NW ahead of dewpoints in the 70s.
Surface observations show a weak cold front approaching the Rio Grande Valley, with multiple cloud decks over all three RGV TAF sites and moderate south-southeast winds ahead of the front, and moderate northerly winds behind it. First, a weak cold front will gradually intrude into the region from the north today before dissipating tonight.
256 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Quiet conditions are expected over the next day as north central Nebraska remains on the northern fringe of strong high pressure. This high will allow warm air advection into the region keeping temperatures on the warm side. Highs in the mid 50s are expected across the north on Sunday and in the low 60s south of I-80. If thunderstorms do develop, the best chance will be across southwest Nebraska where afternoon and early evening peak CAPE values are the highest.
But realize the potential will be the highest from late Sunday morning across SE TX and the afternoon hours across C and SC LA.
A cold front will move south across the region overnight behind the departing short wave.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue for the remainder of the weekend as widespread low cloudiness persist.
A weak cold front is slowly moving southward through the Northern Rockies this afternoon bringing scattered light showers.
Satellite is depicting an increase in cloud cover as our upper low for today drops into central Oregon.
357 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Skies are clear across the Mid-South with weak high pressure centered over western TN. An upper- level trough is located upstream of the Mid-South over the Desert Southwest. High pressure will quickly move out of the region as the longwave pattern remains relatively flat and zonal.
259 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure slides through the area tonight with a cold front arriving on Sunday.
303 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Despite the windy conditions with gusts up to 35 mph today, abundant sunshine and temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s feels pretty good! There is a cold front that has moved into southern SD, and that will move through the region overnight. Sunday will be cooler than today with a northerly wind.
Cool and quiet tonight as high pressure builds over the forecast area and will be situated over central North Dakota at 12 UTC. With clearing skies and light winds with a dry atmosphere, thinking the low side of guidance seems reasonable. Temperatures will be similar to a little warmer than today.
1117 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Drier air will filter into the area this afternoon and evening behind a cold front.
There should be enough elevated instability north of the warm front to support a few severe storms, with large hail being the main concern.
This should allow for sub-freezing temps tonight over much of the area as winds go light. As the high shifts south Sunday afternoon, look for westerly winds to develop with a cooler air mass in place compared to today.
Other than some weak isentropic ascent tonight as a warm front lifts slowly NW, background ascent appears slim to nil until the southern periphery of an upper trough arrives after midnight. A highly modified Pacific front will accompany this trough and could spark a few showers and storms from the northern Brush Country to the Crossroads Sunday morning. Potential for strong and severe modes remains very conditional due to lackluster ascent and strong CIN this far south of the trough. Fog on the other hand could be widespread and dense (at times) this evening and overnight as the warm front advects lower 70 dewpoints northwestward. Sunday night remains quiet, but should prove rather cool as light winds and dry surface ridging build across S TX.
1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Today will start out mostly sunny and mild with southwest winds, but a cold front will move through the region and bring some clouds and northwest winds, along with cooler temperatures for Sunday.
However, the presence of elevated instability will result in a convective nature to this activity which will overcome the low-level dry air in a quicker fashion.
Look for afternoon highs to only top out in the low 60s under this northerly boundary layer flow.
343 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 A weak cold front has been pushing its way across the area today, with only portions of SW MN and NW IA remaining for it to travel through.
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 18Z surface data has a cold front running from the arrowhead of Minnesota back into southwest South Dakota. A weak cold front will sweep through the area late tonight that may result in some sprinkles or spotty light rain. Dry and cooler than normal conditions will be seen across the area on Sunday as high pressure moves into the Midwest.
expect a weak disturbance moving across the high plains to scoot by to our south.
Across nern CO most of the high based showers have already ended. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the high terrain and into the urban corridor and Palmer Divide. Cloud cover overnight will help keep temperatures similar to slightly warmer than last nights values. Skies will be clearing in the morning behind the overnight trough, but that clearing will be short-lived as another trough sinking south from the Northern Great Plains will be moving in.
Despite the windy conditions with gusts up to 35 mph today, abundant sunshine and temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s feels pretty good! There is a cold front that has moved into southern SD, and that will move through the region overnight. Sunday will be cooler than today with a northerly wind.
730 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure will pass off to the southeast tonight.
608 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Cold front currently dropping in across northern MN will continue to sink southeast through the afternoon, sliding across and through the forecast area tonight.
Thunderstorm potential will remain through the morning with decreasing chances by late afternoon as a weak cold front slides southward. There should be enough elevated instability north of the warm front to support a few severe storms, with large hail being the main concern.
1007 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Currently - In general, a nebulous pressure field is in place across the Keys this evening with a trough out to the northeast lifting out and a ridge to our east. The lower level ridge is aligned over South Florida and the Keys. This evenings sounding did indicate some drier air through the lower levels. Generally light winds, initially ranging from northeast to southeast, will firm up somewhat out of the southeast through the overnight period due to ridging building across South Florida.
May see a bit of improvement in the morning, but will be accompanied by another round of thunderstorms on a cold front sweeping in. An inland advancing warm front will provide enough lift to produce interior scattered showers and thunderstorms. The warm front washes out this evening and any lingering northern county convection will weaken while periods of more southern county light precipitation (primarily drizzle or a light shower) hangs on through sunrise.
A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure stretched across the FL Straits/Keys and the storm system to the north will make for a breezy day with southwest winds increasing into the 15 to 20 mph range with higher gusts.
923 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure slides through the area tonight with a cold front arriving on Sunday.
1046 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Marine Low pressure moving across southern Canada will bring a cold front with scattered showers late tonight.
538 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure slides through the area tonight with a cold front arriving on Sunday.
934 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Sunday.
/issued 357 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/ Skies are clear across the Mid-South with weak high pressure centered over western TN. An upper- level trough is located upstream of the Mid-South over the Desert Southwest. High pressure will quickly move out of the region as the longwave pattern remains relatively flat and zonal.
18Z surface data has a cold front running from the arrowhead of Minnesota back into southwest South Dakota. A weak cold front will sweep through the area late tonight that may result in some sprinkles or spotty light rain. Dry and cooler than normal conditions will be seen across the area on Sunday as high pressure moves into the Midwest.
Dew points have been meager (teens and 20s) and in spite of cooling aloft associated with the upper trof, CAPE has been running under 500 J/kg and convection has been weak. Showers should push into KS during the evening with some residual cloudiness and mountain showers lingering within broad trough extending back across UT and NV. So will ramp up pops again to generally scattered across the mountains and the Palmer and Raton Ridges with isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. Temperatures tomorrow should be similar to a degree or so cooler than todays.
High pressure overhead has resulted in sunny skies and light winds this afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected overnight, but strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow, mainly across North Mississippi as a warm front lifts Northward and a strong upper level Jet shifts across the area. 30 Skies are clear across the Mid-South with weak high pressure centered over western TN. An upper- level trough is located upstream of the Mid-South over the Desert Southwest. High pressure will quickly move out of the region as the longwave pattern remains relatively flat and zonal.
Air mass is very dry in the low levels and virga has been more prevalent.
613 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 A weak cold front has been pushing its way across the area today, with only portions of SW MN and NW IA remaining for it to travel through.
510 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2020 A secondary mid-level short wave trough combined with jet divergence working on a conditionally unstable atmosphere will continue to bring scattered showers to the region this evening. Moisture will continue to stream eastward over the region ahead of a weakening closed mid-level low pressure system moving southward from the northern Intermountain West to the Great Basin on Sunday. Weak perturbations moving through a weak transitory ridge aloft, combined with upper-level divergence and steepening lapse rates are expected to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area with the afternoon period favored. The mid-level closed low to the west opens and weakens as it begins to move eastward over the Great Basin during the night.
This traverses the gulf states with the deepest moisture over southern sections of Missouri and Illinois, southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The second part of this is a surface boundary/trough that extends southwest out of the Great Lakes Region. This will position northwest flow aloft with cooler than normal temps favored through the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest.
Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead of the low will draw moisture into central and portions of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints climbing into the 40s(F), producing a limited amount of instability with CAPE values upward of 500 J/kg. Still, the high based nature of any storms may produce gusty outflow winds upward of 45 to 55 mph. Sunday will be a bit cooler under the influence of a light to moderate northeasterly flow across the area. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening as series of H5 vort maxima eject out of the southern Colorado Rockies into the high plains.
754 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Aviation Low pressure moving across southern Canada will bring a cold front with scattered showers late tonight.
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Quiet conditions are expected over the next day as north central Nebraska remains on the northern fringe of strong high pressure. This high will allow warm air advection into the region keeping temperatures on the warm side. Highs in the mid 50s are expected across the north on Sunday and in the low 60s south of I-80. If thunderstorms do develop, the best chance will be across southwest Nebraska where afternoon and early evening peak CAPE values are the highest.
Regarding temperatures, highs should be similar Sunday to what we're seeing today, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
While there may be a couple showers in a few spots around cha this afternoon, much of the more impactful flight weather will hold off until around 00z Monday and later when the main Central Plains States storm system low pressure center builds through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
100 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020 High pressure slides through the area tonight with a cold front arriving on Sunday.
High pressure will briefly build in the wake of each passing system with improving conditions before the next system in line arrives into the region.
Patchy fog was introduced earlier and will maintain this along with drizzle through late morning across much of the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Othewise, front will make its way through the area today, bringing in some drier, but not much cooler air into the area.
405 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020 High pressure will give the area a mostly sunny and mild day. A cold front approaching will bring showers late in the day and this evening. Cooler and drier weather will return for Monday.