Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry and warm conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure to the north keeps easterly flow overhead. Upper level ridging will begin to nose over the area tomorrow, kicking off a gradual warming trend across the area. Low temperatures tonight are forecast in the 50s with high temperatures tomorrow in the low 80s.
258 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Latest surface map shows high pressure over the area, resulting in another stellar day across the area with light winds and minimal cloudiness. This area of high pressure will shift eastward tonight and into Saturday, resulting in an eventual wind shift to the south. Tonight will continue to be quiet but low temperatures should be quite a bit warmer than the past few nights due to some weak warm air advection. Models continue to show a frontal boundary developing/lifting into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys over the weekend, as an upper level trof remains just to our west.
105 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure will continue producing favorable aviation weather. Upper level ridge will be slow to push east into the Eastern Great Lakes today, providing another mostly sunny day. 5 degrees warmer (-7. None-the-less, with the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge axis back across lake Michigan, looks unlikely showers will develop over southeast Michigan with limited cape (surface capes under 200 J/kg) indicated.
251 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 (Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: As the high pressure continues to depart this afternoon, clouds will increase from the west.
Expecting cooler temps overnight once again with temps falling back into the 40s across the area. Winds will begin to become more southerly tomorrow allowing warmer air and moisture to return to Middle TN. While tomorrow will still be nice, it will be noticeably warmer and a little more humid.
558 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (This evening through Saturday) An upper low in northern Mexico will move northeast across West Central Texas Saturday, with the center moving along a Sonora to Brownwood line. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, mainly in the higher elevations in northwest Crockett county Saturday morning and early afternoon.
Low pressure over northeast Mexico will gradually push east this weekend.
410 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 Broad upper-level ridging covers the western and central CONUS. Persistent upper ridging will keep weather mild and dry for the next several days.
935 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020 A low pressure was analyzed over the southeast U. earlier this evening with a cold front extending south over the western FL panhandle and reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Lows tonight dropping to the lower 60s and for northern Lake/inland Volusia to the upper 50s. As a cold front approaches the local area late overnight, a few showers will be possible, preceded and followed by low cigs. A cold front will move through the local Atlantic waters late tonight and early Sat morning. These will increase to 15-20 kt mainly offshore east of Volusia and Brevard later tonight but as the low pressure lifts to the northeast, the pressure gradient will relax again and winds will remain in the 10-15 kt range as these continue to veer and be from the north by Sat afternoon.
-Kredensor High pressure centered across the Northern Rockies and Montana will maintain mostly clear, dry and mild conditions across the region through the weekend. 1025 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 (05/06Z TAF period) VFR conditions are expected over the TAF period as high pressure moves overhead.
Most locations are currently sitting in the mid to upper 30s with a couple areas reporting lower 30s or freezing. Latest guidance and trends suggest that the majority of west Tennessee and portions of north central Mississippi will fall to or below freezing by tomorrow morning. The main forecast concern is for freezing fog overnight, as temperatures are forecast to be below freezing in the few hours before sunrise. Went ahead and added freezing fog to the forecast, but held off on an advisory for now. /issued 234 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ An upper level low pressure system is pushing east into Middle Tennessee at this time. High pressure will build into the area for Saturday.
924 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (Issued 917 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020) Skies have cleared across southern Wisconsin as high pressure settles in from the north.
A transition to MVFR conditions is expected to occur by 14-15Z Saturday as the clouds thicken and rain develops due to increasing large-scale ascent and isentropic upglide due to the approaching Mexican closed low. As a result, expect upper 30s to near 40 for overnight lows to prevail in this region with generally 40s elsewhere except the extreme lower valley where lows will be in the lower 50s given the thicker cloud cover in this region. KBRO radar continued to show light rain/virga approaching from the southwest towards the lower valley. However, towards sunrise sufficient moistening of this sub-cloud layer as a result of increasing isentropic lift and large-scale ascent from the approaching northern Mexico closed low will occur. The best chances for rain will again be the lower valley where the strongest isentropic upglide, dynamic forcing, and deepest moisture will coincide.
A cooler and drier airmass will prevail across the region for the next 24 hours in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will lead to clear skies with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
939 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 Made some adjustments to cloud cover, as the high clouds continue to push southeastward, moving across western MN and the southern RRV while the Devils Lake Basin clears out. Have trended temperatures warmer for Saturday too, although this is when the upper level disturbance will swing through the FA. After this, confidence is increasing on a warming trend caused by a lingering upper level ridge.
1202 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 Scattered snow showers are possible Saturday with a trough of low pressure.
1117 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 High pressure will provide clear skies and VFR conditions through the period. High pressure will be over the area through the period.
Temperatures are near freezing across southern areas. Over the next few hours temperatures should drop to near freezing at most locations while fog formation continues. With many areas across the eastern two thirds of middle TN expected to see areas off dense fog, will go ahead and issue a freezing fog advisory for this morning.
Have sped up exit of pops for the lower elevations, but kept pops lingering in the eastern mountains. The freezing level should be low enough now for precip in mountains to be mainly snow by now. Freezing level on radar down to about 6500 feet MSL or so. Should be getting drier in lower elevations as high pressure builds in. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 32 54 37 47 / 0 0 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 52 36 44 / 0 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 49 30 51 35 44 / 0 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 27 49 33 42 / 10 0 0 20 30.
Made some adjustments to cloud cover, as the high clouds continue to push southeastward, moving across western MN and the southern RRV while the Devils Lake Basin clears out. Have trended temperatures warmer for Saturday too, although this is when the upper level disturbance will swing through the FA. After this, confidence is increasing on a warming trend caused by a lingering upper level ridge.
319 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 A quick moving cold front is currently sitting over the Nature Coast producing some light showers inland with the heavier rain activity staying in the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will move through rather quickly and by the late morning hours should be in south Florida. High pressure will settle in behind the front and skies with be clearing out quickly by the afternoon.
1045 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Mostly clear skies, seasonable highs, and lows just below freezing will dominate the short term.
/Issued 1153 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ /Through Saturday Night/ A clear, cold and calm night will continue across North and Central Texas with temperatures falling to freezing or slightly below for most locations by sunrise. Mid and upper level clouds will increase from southwest to northeast on Saturday as an upper low lifts northeast out of Mexico. Some light rain will accompany this upper low but since the low levels will remain dry, much of the precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. The clouds on Saturday will hold most temperatures in the 50s but will help keep overnight lows above freezing Saturday night.
-Kredensor High pressure centered across the Northern Rockies and Montana will maintain mostly clear, dry and mild conditions across the region through the weekend. 450 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 (05/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions are expected over the TAF period as high pressure moves overhead.
A cutoff upper level low currently sitting south of New Mexico is integrating into the subtropical jet stream. At the same time, a ridge forms across western Canada. This ridge promotes northwest flow pushing in cool dry air into the central Plains.
as colder air will make its way across the region in the wake of a cold front. The lower temperatures this weekend will be accompanied by plenty of clouds along with some rain and snow showers. A mid level trough dropping toward the lower Great Lakes will sharpen early this morning slides through. Expect lull in precip to continue until colder air works in toward daybreak behind the cold front. For the rest of today, low pressure will rapidly intensify as it will track along the New England coast. Cold air advection will offset diurnal heating with temperatures expected to remain steady in the lower to mid 30s. Cyclonic flow around a mature coastal low in the Gulf of Maine will continue to filter in a cold (H850T -10C/-11C) but dry Canadian air mass across the Lower Lakes Saturday night.
The 00Z DNR sounding indicated the weak northeastern flow continue through much of the atmosphere as the upper ridge remains centered northeast of Colorado. Very little change in the upper air pattern through Saturday with high amplitude ridge of high pressure across much of the west. There is a tiny system which rides over the ridge into the Northern high plains and Great Lakes region Saturday. This brings just slightly cooler air into the low levels Saturday afternoon following a very weak frontal push.
248 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 An amplified pattern is in place with sharp an upper level ridge over the Rockies and a dry n-nw flow aloft.
1053 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020 (This evening through Saturday) An upper low in northern Mexico will move northeast across West Central Texas Saturday, with the center moving along a Sonora to Brownwood line. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, mainly in the higher elevations in northwest Crockett county Saturday morning and early afternoon.
The main westerlies remain displaced well north and south of the region through the bulk of the coming week with mean ridging over the western CONUS. Rather warm 925 mb temps and some mixing into this layer is keeping temps steady tonight but a weak mid level wave passing south through the central Plains brings slightly cooler temps in compared to Friday.
830 PM MST Fri Dec 4 2020 Upper ridge remains over Rockies. Weak surface trof moving southward with brief gusty winds that subside quickly. Saturday Through Friday Persistent upper ridging will keep weather mild and dry for the next several days.
255 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 Scattered snow showers are possible today with a trough of low pressure.
Weak low pressure over the area remains, with stagnant air persisting under light wind.
With current dewpoints in the mid 30s, and little fluctuation anticipated due to moist soil conditions, temperatures will likely fall into the 30-34 degree range for most of the region by sunrise (perhaps a few degrees warmer near large bodies of water). A patchy coverage of fog/freezing fog is also anticipated, mainly during the 10-14Z timeframe when winds should be calm. Dry weather is expected for the weekend, as high pressure builds towards the region from the west. Colder air from Canada tapped by the high will keep high temperatures for Sat/Sun only in the lower 50s, with lows Sat/Sun nights in the lower 30s.
There could be some minor areas of fog near warmer lakes and rivers, but nothing impactful expected. A cool night will be in store for the region tonight underneath high pressure and with deep dry air in place, expect efficient radiational cooling tonight with many places dipping into the 20s by Saturday morning.
Many sites are calm with dew points a few degrees cooler.
815 PM PST Fri Dec 4 2020 Freezing fog has expanded into the Yakima Valley this evening and have updated the Freezing Fog Advisory to include them. VIFR to LIFR ceilings will persist at sites DLS/ALW/PSC/PDT/YKM in freezing fog through about 18z then should see some improvement in the afternoon, before decreasing again after sunset. VFR conditions expected to prevail at sites RDM/BDN through the period, though vsby impacts from freezing fog could occur at sites RDM overnight or early tomorrow morning.
1239 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Warm/dry weather expected to continue as high pressure remains in control of the weather. Upper level high pressure centered over Idaho this morning. Do not see any change in the weather pattern through the short term as high pressure remains in place.
1011 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020 Low pressure will move east across the upper Great Lakes region, dragging a weak cold front southeast across the area this evening. At the same time, low pressure will move from the Southeast off the Mid Atlantic coast.
For the remainder of today, expect mostly sunny skies and no pops as ridge at the surface builds in from the west. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be near climo with mid 50s north to around 60 for the south. As winds subside and skies remain mostly clear, improved radiational cooling conditions will allow for lows around freezing for areas north of the metro.
Temperatures had dropped into the lower 30s in the cleared areas with a few spots in the valleys already dipping into the upper 20s. Moving into the daylight hours, a cold front to the north of the region is forecast to drop though our area this morning.
109 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 A cold front will drop through the region tonight, followed by cooler conditions for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
This cyclone will pass through Texas during the short term, well south of SW KS, with no sensible weather impacts. Upper ridge axis will persist/expand along the Rockies through the weekend, providing continued quiet pleasant weather with dry northerly flow aloft.
413 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 12Z TAF CYCLE Sct-bkn mid to high level clouds over se NM as an upper level low skirts srn NM and moves over the TX Big Bend. The ne-ely winds aloft associated with the upper low relax aft 06/06Z as an upper ridge builds over NM and the low moves east.
A few degrees cooler today as heights fall aloft with strong upper low digging into the MN Arrowhead and eventually the IL/IN by late tonight. The biggest story is good agreement in well above normal temperatures, as anomalously strong upper ridging gradually builds east from the West into the Central U.
For the remainder of today, expect mostly sunny skies and no pops as ridge at the surface builds in from the west. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be near climo with mid 50s north to around 60 for the south. As winds subside and skies remain mostly clear, improved radiational cooling conditions will allow for lows around freezing for areas north of the metro. Southern stream system moving through Texas on Sunday will quickly eject in to the lower Mississippi Valley for the afternoon hours.
Mid/upper low across northern Mexico should take a track across the Big Bend today and newd toward the ArkLaTex Sunday. At the sfc, look for a coastal trof and zone of convergence to develop offshore. Cloudiness will fill in across the region thru the day as the low makes further ewd progress closer to the region. But as we head into the afternoon and evening hours, column moisture will further saturate aloft and llvls further modify closer to the coast and offshore in association with the coastal trof. Precip will taper off west-east late tonight into mid morning Sunday as the upper low passes to the northeast.
258 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Upper-level ridge of high pressure will prevail across the region, with only brief weak disturbances trying to break down the ridge, and failing to do so. Each day will thaw to above normal high temperatures, and each cloudless night will return to a hard freeze, especially through the lower elevation areas and near the river valleys. Basically, it will all depend on whether the low pressure disturbances from the Canadian Rockies are strong enough to drop this far south as they try to cut down the ridge of high pressure to our southwest.
Thus, the mid level trofs/lows are not forecast to produce measurable pcpn for the PAH forecast area.
Temperatures are near freezing across southern areas. Over the next few hours temperatures should drop to near freezing at most locations while fog formation continues. With many areas across the eastern two thirds of middle TN expected to see areas off dense fog, will go ahead and issue a freezing fog advisory for this morning. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s.
An area of low pressure remains over northern Mexico while we remain under high pressure. While we stay under high pressure, a trough will come ashore over the PacNW on Sunday and by noon, a closed low will form at the base of this trough. This low will then drift southward into Nevada. GFS and EC ensembles are in good agreement with the track of the low pressure mentioned above.
This is all ahead of an upper level low that will move across the Big Bend region this morning and then across West Central Texas tonight. Models have their differences, mostly in how quickly the lower levels of the atmosphere can moisten up enough to allow any precip to reach the ground, but the general idea remains the same. Best chance for precip will be across Crockett County west into the higher elevations, with lighter precip farther north and east across the remainder of West Central Texas. Not expecting much accumulation, but perhaps enough to produce a brief dusting of snow and a few icy spots on bridges northwest of Ozona.
633 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 High pressure and drier air will build in early today and remain over the area through Sunday.
344 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 A longwave upper level trough digging across the Great Lakes and has expanded south and absorbing a close low near the Appalachian Mountains. Post frontal airmass will continue pushing into the local area as that trough shifts east today. An impulse within the Great Lakes trough will dig southwest towards the Mississippi River Saturday night. Some moisture will get drawn northward ahead of the associated cold front as it comes into LA and MS Sunday afternoon.
00z NAM progs temperatures to remain below freezing, so we are expecting no mixed precipitation types. Once the mid-level vorticity maxima passes by to the south, mid- level ridging to the west will keep conditions quiet at least through mid-week.
434 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Warm/dry weather expected to continue as high pressure remains in control of the weather. Upper level high pressure centered over Idaho this morning. Do not see any change in the weather pattern through the short term as high pressure remains in place.
950 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 Cold front currently across the area will slow down as it shifts southward into Okeechobee County and Treasure Coast late this morning and afternoon. Low cloud deck producing MVFR, locally IFR cigs north of the cold front, that has currently shifted south of KMLB, will continue to shift southward with this boundary. Winds will continue to switch to the N/NW behind the cold front as it shifts farther southward into the Treasure Coast waters late this morning into the afternoon.
This will be in response to approaching upper low that will track across northern parts of Texas through Sunday before phasing with fast moving upper trough that will swing over the region from the northern/central Plains.
With mostly clear skies tonight, temperatures will range from the lower 30s north to around 40 degrees south.
High pressure will remain over the Interior West through Sunday.
A weak cold front is just slipping through the southeastern most counties of Nebraska.
545 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Dry and slightly cooler conditions are on tap today.
633 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 The region will experience partly cloudy and cool conditions behind a cold front today.
Continued with the trend of going with the highest end guidance for warmth, and even beyond in some cases - especially for ABR. For tonight, high pressure moves across the area with winds going rather light.
Slight cooling trend through the weekend while a weak cold front moves into Northern California.
Subtle changes in the low- level flow will occur as well, leading to varying degrees of downslope enhancement. The low-level flow today and tomorrow will be a bit more northerly which should limit the downslope component some (compared to yesterday).
529 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 High pressure will dominate through the day before a weak area of low pressure approaches late in the period. Today through Sunday night Satellite perspective is showing barely a cloud in sight across the state as high pressure continues to be dominate the surface pattern. Upper pattern remains highly amplified at this time and highlighted by a sprawling upper ridge over the west and a deep troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. Areas of low pressure are seen over northern Mexico, northern Minnesota and racing up the east coast. The upper low off the east coast deepens rapidly into a nor'easter while the northern Mexico low lifts into northeast Texas by Sunday morning. Will only carry silent POPS right now over the south with temperatures slightly cooler than what will be seen today.
333 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 An upper level low in northern Mexico will push northeast into West Texas throughout the day. We remain in the cooler air north of the system, which will keep our temperatures a few degrees below normal, in the mid 50s. Winds will remain relatively light through the morning, becoming breezier out of the north this afternoon when the upper level low passes by, just to our south.
542 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Light snow possibly mixed with freezing rain could create minor travel impacts late this morning through early this afternoon in northwest MN. Mid/upper low over southern Manitoba/far southwest Ontario will slide south over northwest MN through the day today, and an axis of WAA and positive frontogenesis will align in our eastern CWA. Dry air aloft could limit mid level saturation and ice crystal development, which if low level remain saturated could result in light freezing rain/drizzle rather than snow. The mid/upper low exits and drier/stable air remains in place with west-northwest BL flow this afternoon into Sunday.
510 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 [Through 12z Sunday] Skies have cleared behind the cold front with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. A cooler and drier airmass will prevail across the region for the next 24 hours in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will lead to clear skies with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
520 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible today with a trough of low pressure. Dry weather returns Sunday under high pressure. Accumulation potential should be limited to the higher terrain, where a localized inch is possible in the highest elevations.