Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Arklatex region as the strong cold front has pushed well into the Gulf. Conditions today and Fri will be very similar to what we've had the last few days, with seasonal temps and dry conditions as weak high pressure briefly affects the Plains. ECMWF has now come around to the slower GFS solution with regards to the eastward progression of the closed low. Attention will then turn to yet another piece of energy set to carve out a robust trough over the Great Basin and Rockies Tue into Tue night. This feature will push a strong cold front across the area Tue night into Wed morning with what looks like a polar airmass to follow.
1111 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Quiet conditions in place early this morning, with upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow across the region, as the main low pressure system continues to gradually push east through the Great Lakes region.
356 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will prevail through the end of this week.
Most light snow ends by Friday morning however areas of freezing fog are possible across much of northern and central Nevada.
Calm winds and clear skies should again let temperatures drop to near freezing in the northeastern portion of the forecast area tonight, while areas to the south and west should hover a few degrees above freezing.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Zonal flow aloft will become more southwesterly tonight as a short wave trough digs south along the West Coast and cuts off over Northwest Mexico. Plentiful East Pacific moisture will pump over the area into the ridge building over East Tex and the Lower Miss Valley, supporting overrunning. At the surface, high pressure will spread out over the Southeast United States under the ridge, interacting with pressure falls upstream over Mexico being induced by the cut off low.
337 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 An upper level low north of the region will move off to the northeast Friday Night.
1110 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 The short wave rounding the base of the upper level trough will start the system lifting into eastern Canada during the afternoon. Model soundings also indicate healthy enough boundary layer growth for freezing level to rise from 300 ft observed in the 12Z DTX sounding to well above 1000 ft through the afternoon. This will ensure a liquid precip type as surface temperatures creep into the lower 40s. Extensive stratus canopy extending back into the northern Great Plains is not going anywhere, especially with southwest surface winds veering to westerly over the lake as the low-level flow flattens out a bit today.
Slow moving stacked deep upper low inching its way through eastern Ontario/western Quebec, with several embedded waves rotating around this system. One surface and short wave trough slipping through northern Michigan this afternoon producing lake enhanced and light synoptic precip over a good chuck of the snow belt areas. Lead short wave trough will slip on through the region heading into the evening hours with low level mean winds turning a little more WNW. Precip should transition over to mainly snow across the inland areas and particularly the higher terrain areas, although surface temps will hover at or above freezing for a good part of the night and should curtail snow accumulations.
343 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. An upper low will remain the dominant feature during this portion of the forecast.
/Today through Tonight/ Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the upper Midwest including Iowa today into tonight although it will be weakening with time as main upper low pulls into southeastern Canada.
An upper trough was working its way into western Montana early this morning and will shift across the forecast area today and tonight. The trough weakens and slides east Friday.
The lower clouds have been producing occasional flurries in the valleys and expect this to continue through late morning before the stratus scatters out. Accumulations are expected to be low, only an inch or two even at the highest elevations. Tonight and tomorrow, an upper level ridge will build in from the west, resulting in NW to N flow aloft.
205 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cold front sagging southward through EC FL as of mid afternoon. Latest meso models continue to indicate weak low/trof forming off the Treasure Coast overnight which may help showers to move onshore via a NNE onshore component associated with this feature, so will keep PoPs in through the overnight there. Drier air and some decrease in clouds across the north will allow low temps to fall into the low-mid 50s roughly north of I-4 to near 60-mid 60s south and upper 60s-near 70 immediate Treasure coast. Noticeably cooler max temps, especially north with upper 60s-lower 70s north, and mid-upper 70s south.
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service Birmingham AL/ High pressure will begin to build into the area through Friday as the cold front exits stage right.
12Z KOTX sounding shows quite the cold conditionally unstable airmass over Eastern Washington and North Idaho contained in the cold trof over the region. Thus pops will remain rather high in the more orographically favored locations with a general decreasing trend through the day and tonight as the flow aloft becomes more northerly in nature with less disturbances moving through it and the most unstable air moves east with the trof.
An upper level trough will move southward fm the nrn Rockies as an upper level low develops over Utah by late tonight. Across nern CO the low lvl flow will become light ese with a dry layer abv the sfc. After 09z the lower levles may become more saturated which may lead to a slight chc of light snow in and nr the foothills. The upper trof will continue to dig south and southeast into southern Arizona during the day on Friday as the low becomes closed off.
331 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will build in from the west over the next several days, bringing dry weather and gradually cooling temperatures.
Synoptic Setup: A weak mesoscale ridge lies over northeast Montana with a meso trough over Idaho and western Montana. Farther west a ridge sets off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, the ridge to the west will move onshore over southern British Columbia and nose out over Alberta.
1256 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Upper level low pressure will be entrenched north of the Great Lakes region, bringing westerly flow to the Ohio Valley. High pressure will build in early in the weekend.
Have allowed the advisory for the high risk of rip currents to expire this morning. What a difference a day makes as a cool, dry and quiet weather pattern has settled over the area in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Thursday night lows will fall into the low to mid 40s near the coast and mid to upper 30s inland.
With less of a fetch of Lake Michigan, possible for breaks in the low clouds to develop, especially across MBS and FNT where confidence is lowest in ceilings holding. The short wave rounding the base of the upper level trough will start the system lifting into eastern Canada during the afternoon. Model soundings also indicate healthy enough boundary layer growth for freezing level to rise from 300 ft observed in the 12Z DTX sounding to well above 1000 ft through the afternoon. This will ensure a liquid precip type as surface temperatures creep into the lower 40s. Extensive stratus canopy extending back into the northern Great Plains is not going anywhere, especially with southwest surface winds veering to westerly over the lake as the low-level flow flattens out a bit today.
341 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 An upper level low north of the region will move off to the northeast Friday Night.
High pressure is centered over northern Louisiana this morning which will keep the region sunny this afternoon with temperatures warming into the 50s across the forecast area. Latest H5 analysis places the region under nearly zonal flow aloft, with a strong upper low located over southern Ontario and an amplified ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, 06z surface analysis depicts a cold front just inland the Atlantic coast, with high pressure building into the local region behind the feature. Temperatures in the 50s on Thursday will warm to near 60 on Friday as 500 hPa heights increase slightly over the region as an upper trough digs across the southwestern CONUS.
1225 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Still getting reports of very light freezing drizzle and flurries throughout the CWA. Forecast challenge will be potential for freezing drizzle during the early morning hours. This mid level dry layer will continue to sink south throughout the night and should cut off any remaining light snow with the loss of ice in the column, however there is a potential for patchy freezing drizzle behind it. Will keep the patchy wording in through mid morning and re-evaluate at the 7 AM update, but confidence is decreasing for freezing drizzle. With the cloud cover and northerly flow temperatures should remain in the low 30s. A ridge of high pressure moves over western ND and will keep light northerly flow and some cold advection over the area.
and Friday Precipitation continues to wind down across most of the area early this morning as a mid level low pressure system slowly tracks through the northern Great Lakes. Snow chances will slowly wane across north-central Wisconsin tonight and Friday as the low continues tracking eastward, with the best chances concentrated over Vilas County given the lake effect component.
243 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 The lower local wind profile remains veered, but has been slackening from this morning through early this afternoon. A mid to upper level low amplitude ridge will translate eastward away from Florida tonight and Friday.
325 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 As of mid afternoon, a closed upper low was over eastern Ontario and western Quebec with a general broad trough over much of the CONUS and North America. At the sfc, high pressure was centered over the lower MS Valley with ridging extending into the OH and TN Valleys. This evening through Friday, the upper level low will move into the St Lawrence Valley and Maritimes with a couple of weak disturbances rotating around it across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. At the sfc, high pressure will continue building into the area.
231 PM MST Thu Dec 1 2016 Deep and broad upper trough continues across much of the CONUS with NW flow aloft persisting over the northern plains.
400 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through Friday.
146 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Remaining clouds and moisture associated with frontal boundary will pass Southeast of the region Tonight, as high pressure builds from the West. High pressure will be Northwest of the region on Friday with a light Northwesterly/Northerly flow. This pattern will result in a cooler and drier airmass with sunny skies, and temperatures near to slightly below normal.
Increasing moisture values moving up ahead of a developing southern Texas warm front will thicken clouds Friday afternoon. 12z soundings support highs in the lower 70s over the extreme SW zones to the lower 60s over the extreme NE zones.
249 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
However, the ridge is expected to shift to over Alabama tonight and so we should see even less wind for Friday. /Issued 127 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ High pressure is now building into Central Alabama this morning and will be in control of the weather through Friday nights.
Though, the higher valleys and mountain roads of Idaho and Clearwater counties in Idaho could see additional accumulations of 2 to 5 inches through the afternoon. As the day goes on it will break up and become more showery as the upper level trough axis moves east of the mountains.
Izzi 229 AM CST Upper trough over the region will slowly ease its grip heading into the weekend, but continued cyclonic low level flow and lack of dry air advection should be enough to keep stratus locked in through Friday night.
The upper low moving further east will leave a flat westerly flow over the Dakotas, with a weak short wave drifting east and arriving over the James Valley this afternoon. A little drizzle or freezing drizzle would not be out of the question given the lack of ice with the drier air further up. Lows tonight should be a tad cooler, in the 20s, but still above normal. Weak ridging makes a return on Friday into Friday night.
318 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Quiet weather continues across the region this afternoon, with high pressure in control.
343 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 It was sunny and cool across the Mid-State this afternoon, with 3 pm temperatures ranging from the middle 40s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower 50s elsewhere. Expect a cool high pressure system to remain over the Mid-State through Friday, along with mostly clear skies. Upper trough deepens over the western United States by Friday night, with upper level flow becoming southwesterly across the Tennessee Valley.
324 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Large upper low centered north of Lake Huron providing extensive low stratus across the northern Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Clouds: Little change in the airmass as upper level trough will remain across the Great Lakes region. The exception will be in far northeast MO on Friday where clouds should decrease as that area will be closer to high pressure sliding eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s with highs on Friday in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
High pressure is expected across the area through the end of the week.
254 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Chances for very light freezing drizzle/flurries or fog will be the main challenge for the short term. Obs reports of flurries or freezing drizzle have become more sparse in the last few hours. Model soundings continue to show the classic pattern for freezing drizzle, and the 900mb level has plenty of RH and periods of rising omega in the layer overnight. Will continue to keep patchy freezing drizzle and isolated flurries going overnight. The patchy freezing drizzle/flurries may continue into the early part of the day, but cyclonic flow decreases and flow aloft becomes more westerly, so think that the threat for nuisance wintery precip will be decreased.
/issued 434 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ Zonal upper level flow will rapidly become southwesterly in orientation today as trough digs into the desert southwest. Precipitation chances increase through the day as well as isentropic lift increases out ahead of the deepening upper level low working ESE across the Baja. After sunset and after cooler air works its way south across the SW Texas Panhandle and NW South Plains, we'll likely see some of that rain change over to snow.
Winds will be quite light, even at the highest elevations. Light precip will likely continue over the higher terrain.
155 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A cold front along the coast will continue moving offshore as high pressure builds in from the west.
230 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A cold front along the coast will continue moving offshore as high pressure builds in from the west.
/issued 325 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ Upper low has moved east to the Great Lakes Region while a new one comes down from the Canadian NW.
300 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Concerns for the short term involve the patchy freezing drizzle across the central and east with some patchy fog tonight. Lack of seeder-feeder ice crystals will also support some patchy freezing drizzle through the night north and east. Will not mention freezing drizzle as bufkit soundings appear to dissipate the weak low level vertical motion that seems to be supporting the drizzle Thursday afternoon.
300 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
The low pressure trough over the Rockies and Desert SW tonight will split into a southern stream closed low that will slowly track east into northern Mexico, and a more progressive northern stream trough that will move into the MS Valley on Sunday. The southern stream low will spread a deep flow of moisture across the Southeast today, with isentropic lift increasing in our southern sections this evening as the northern stream trough approaches.
Winds will veer to a more easterly flow this afternoon and become breezy and gusty at times as high pressure begins establishing across the region in the wake of a frontal passage. Weak front has moved south into the Keys this afternoon with high pressure building with drier air moving into the region. North to northeast flow returns with gradient strengthening as high pressure continues to build over South Florida. During the weekend, ridge will gradually drift east into the Atlantic waters returning east to southeast wind later in the weekend across S Florida. Ridge will keep us under drier conditions for the most part with no significant rainfall expected. Models continue to show an upper trough digging southeast along the west coast into the Desert Southwest this weekend and strengthens as it moves across the Central Plains.
High pressure will nudge into the area over the weekend marking a return to more seasonal conditions. The surface pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure noses into the area Sunday for lighter winds across most of the region with seasonal temperatures.
300 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Areas of light rain starting to spread north into the region this morning in response to amplifying upper trough over the desert southwest and corresponding upper low over northern Baja.
Gusty winds are decreasing over the Sierra ridges tonight as the pressure gradient and mid level winds decrease. /Issued 239 PM PST Fri Dec 2 2016/ Strong easterly ridge winds continue today in the Sierra with dangerous wind chill temperatures possible in the highest elevations.
333 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build into the area today. The high will move off to the east on Sunday as an upper level disturbance quickly moves to the Great Lakes.
1240 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build into the area Saturday and move off to the east Sunday morning.
341 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 An upper level disturbance is currently pushing east into the Plains as and upper level low is located across northeastern Mexico early this morning. This evening as the trough tracks across the region light rain will develop across southeastern Kansas and spread into central Missouri. An increase in clouds and rain spreading into the area will result in highs in the middle 40s to the lower 50s this afternoon.
Soundings show that this low level moisture will remain across the area through this time period. With these clouds, the low temperatures will not cool as much as the model consensus indicates. From Saturday night into Sunday, a short wave trough will move northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Heaviest precip will be out ahead of the system and well to our south, but there should be enough forcing on the northern end of things along the trough axis to keep 20-40 POPs going for the period.
248 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 Upper level analysis has trough over the western and north central CONUS, with a closed low over the gulf of California. Upper trough will cross the region today, with increasing clouds and winds becoming more westerly. West to southwest boundary layer flow will advect in slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s expected.
High pressure should keep most of the area dry. A mid level trof over the Plains 06-12z Sunday will support precip to our west, while along and east of an inverted surface trof we will see rains move NE into the area then shift toward the TN valley tonight through Sunday morning. As the Plains trof moves east and becomes positioned over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, drier air working in from the west will end precip chances from west to east Sunday. Dry weather is forecast Sunday night as high pressure maintains.
435 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure will build in later today but slide quickly off to the east on Sunday. Low pressure over ME and Canadian Maritimes will move to the east and relax the NW flow - but not until late today and this evening. Still looking for an inch or less for accums on the higher ridges in the NW, and nil elsewhere. Temps will be cooler tonight without so much wind to keep us well-mixed. Just the highest hill tops of the SE may get a dusting. It is a nighttime event, and temps in the nrn tier are much more likely to be sub-freezing all night.
For tonight, warm air advection will result in increasing mid/upper level cloudiness to overspread the forecast area in advance of an approaching upper trough. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than last night, with minimum readings in the upper 20s to middle 30s. The strongest of these waves will approach the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, likewise giving the CWA the highest probability of precipitation Sat night. Based on forecast soundings across eastern Kansas into Missouri, the thermal profile supports the large majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain, with a warm layer in the lowest 2-3kft, and wet-bulb temperatures in the mid-30s.
WAA/short wave trough mid level clouds shown on satellite will be making their way east tonight. The clouds may hold in longer across the east on Saturday along with chances of light rain/light snow coming in the far east later in the day as a short wave trough moves through. The temperatures should be warmer with the snow cover out west still having an effect. The period begins with an area of low pressure and upper level trough crossing the region. While temps will be above freezing ahead of this system, most of the pcpn should fall in the cold section as snow.
329 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 H5 hand analysis from this evening continues to indicate a fairly chaotic pattern across the lower 48 and Canada. High pressure was located over the eastern Pacific, off the coast of central California. north of this high, a trough of low pressure was located over British Columbia with 100 to 150 meter falls noted across the west coast of Canada. East of this trough, high pressure was located over northern Manitoba with a downstream trough of low pressure located over Quebec. Highs will be in the lower to middle 40s in the western half of the forecast area, where clearing is expected by afternoon.
Clouds may erode later this afternoon into this evening as low level mixing begins to increase and thermal trof slides off to the east. Not out of the question to see a few spots as high as 5 given some of the higher model QPF, particularly in the southwest forecast area.
Result will be slightly warmer mins tonight and cooler highs on Saturday.
1032 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016 Upper trough is over the western and north central CONUS, and an area of low clouds continues to cover much of the northern plains. With high pressure over the region, winds are light and variable. Trough will cross the region Saturday, with increasing clouds and winds becoming more westerly. A weak upper ridge over the northern plains and westerly downslope flow at the surface will support dry weather with near average temperatures on Sunday.
A vigorous low pressure system will arrive on Sunday bringing heavy snow to the Panhandle mountains and to the Cascade crest.
344 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Current surface analysis places low over southern Alberta with trough dropping through eastern Montana towards the Black Hills. Weak ridging between systems will bring dry conditions during the day on Sunday.
Mid and high level clouds, associated with an upper low over the swrn US, will continue to move across the TN valley overnight. These clouds should keep mrng lows a little warmer (in the mid 30s) than this mrng. Broad isentropic lift and strong warm advection occurs ahead of the low and is developing precip/low clouds to our southwest by Saturday afternoon.
352 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 High pressure ridge across the area will move east to northeast today while a weather system approaches from the west. That same warm air will keep highs on Mon and Tues in the low 40s in Central Illinois.