Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Building high pressure overhead will further strengthen valley inversions today and tonight which models indicate will drive stratus down to the ground as a thickening deck of freezing fog. This should make tonight's lows much colder in those places which have been held in check this morning due to the low deck of stratus clouds.
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE CHAOTIC CEILING AT TIMES TODAY. ISSUED 358 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD A LARGER SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BAJA TONIGHT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME PRECIP MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TURNING COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND POOR-HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. (FROM PREVIOUS) BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AT 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND IT. MOS/WAVE GUIDANCE AND MARINE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL SURGE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
THE DETAILS OF FOG/STRATUS EVOLUTION IN THE LOWER ELEVATION INVERSION REMAINS A CHALLENGE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW STRATUS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE WEISER BASIN. THE EAST WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LOW STRATUS TO EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE OREGON.
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. DIGGING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN-CANADIAN TROUGH.
523 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
624 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY TO START THE NEW YEAR. BROAD COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROF DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS FAVORS KEEPING A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO OUR WEST THRU THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
638 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
637 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY TYPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SHUNTING THE HIGH MOISTURE FURTHER EAST. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROF PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN U.
613 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
1033 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 CURRENTLY - A TROUGH IS MIGRATING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE WESTERN EXTEND OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. WHILE WARMER DRIER AIR REMAINS ALOFT. HOWEVER VIRTUALLY ALL OF IT IS SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NW GULF SUPPORTING STRONG NE WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW OVER TOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
1025 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
STARTING TO SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH/DIFFLUENCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE LOWS SO FAR HAVE REMAINED BETWEEN 76 AND 78 DEGREES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
331 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 LEAD PV ANOMALY FROM EVOLVING POSITIVELY TITLED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES MOVING QUICKLY NEWD THIS MORNING INTO WRN SD. IN RESPONSE PV DESTRUCTION INCREASING FROM KS INTO NEB AND IA WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE THE TILT OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS SWRN NEB WHILE WINDS PICKING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS OF CO AND NWD INTO WRN NEB AND SERN WY INDICATIVE OF A BARRIER JET ON NWRN SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
HRRR/NAM/RAP MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE LOWEST MAINLY ALONG AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE BAYS.
928 PM PST FRI DEC 25 2015 Fog and stratus will form as high pressure builds into the region through Saturday.
1153 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
235 AM MST SAT DEC 26 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
1241 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
I WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WINS OUT AND THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO NORTH. AREAS IN THE SOUTH MAY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN RISE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER EXPECT THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF BY MID MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
The first round of organized convection will occur this morning as a warm front moves north across the Lower Ohio Valley. Showers and isolated storms will decrease from south to north in the wake of the warm frontal passage this afternoon and evening.
852 PM PST FRI DEC 25 2015 Fog and stratus will form as high pressure builds into the region through Saturday.
/ISSUED 1004 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/ RECORD WARMTH THIS CHRISTMAS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO 35-40 KNOTS (AHEAD OF THE EASTERN ADVANCING WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES) BY NOON SATURDAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PEAK OUT TOMORROW AS EASTERN TEXAS FALLS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THIS APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH SATURDAY. OR WHERE THE STRONGER LLJ RESIDES IN TANDEM WITH THE HIGHER 305K THETA %RH AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH NASHVILLE STILL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS LOCATED ALONG THE PLATEAU, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SHOWS SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. WAS HOPING THE WARMER AIR MIGHT LOWER RH VALUES AND REDUCE OUR CHANCE OF DENSE FOG, BUT DEW POINTS ARE COMING RIGHT UP WITH THE TEMPS, SO DEW POINT SPREADS EVEN IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE RUNNING ZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS, AS TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTHWARD. THE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
MODELS AGREE WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE 13Z. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND AND THE FRONT SLOW TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
1137 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
SW flow aloft across the central plains this afternoon continues east of large upper trough over the desert southwest. Based on current and expected temperatures, much of the forecast area should remain above freezing tonight except the northwest corner where temperatures near freezing should persist. Will change the precipitation from liquid to freezing/frozen in the northwest Saturday.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BUT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL TRY TO DRY OUT THE AREA SOME.
A strong cold front will move through the region Saturday, moving through SE NM TAF sites around 15Z and W TX TAF sites by late Saturday afternoon. /issued 229 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/ Strong upper trough over the SW US will cutoff with the low moving along the US/Mex border and then swinging across the area. Once this low swings northeast out of TX another upper trough will quickly follow it down into the area.
1144 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 The quiet weather over Christmas Day will begin to transition to more active weather as a significant trough begins to dig into the Desert Southwest overnight. This trough will translate into the Southern Plains before ejecting northward towards the Mississippi River Basin and Great Lakes region. If the system can pull in colder air, the NW portion of the CWA could see several inches of snow, however, If the temperature profile remains warm in the mid-levels but a shallow layer of cold air works in at the surface then freezing rain could pose issues.
A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES PRESENTLY WITH CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
1249 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATED 0535Z SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT EASTWARD. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING PERIOD IS FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND INTENSITY AT LOCAL TAF SITES.
1258 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MERRY CHRISTMAS! FELIZ NAVIDAD! IT IS ANOTHER WARM ONE AS A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FL. THIS WARM, HUMID PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH YEAR'S END AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP COLD FRONTS FROM ENTERING OUR AREA.
Slow-moving warm frontal boundary now along the Lake Cumberland region. As the day goes on Saturday, should see the warm front accelerate as the flow aloft turns a little more southerly and strengthens.
ONGOING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER NRN LA/EXTREME SRN AR IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER NWD OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
TIMED WITH EXPECTED EROSION OF THE LOW DECK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SPEEDIER FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER.
328 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH COVERS THE ROCKIES WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THUS WE SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. ROAD TEMPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR ARE AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. A RATHER ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS WHICH ALONG WITH THE 850 MB CIRCULATION BECOME THE FOCI FOR PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
Earlier 06z BUFR forecast soundings from NAM and GFS suggested that a brief window of freezing precipitation may be possible around 12z north of I-74 and west of Illinois River, but 12z Suite has backed off on that scenario. With chances of any precip low, will keep mention of any freezing rain out for tonight.
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE COAST TODAY. DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFFSHORE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT S/SE TOWARD NORTHERN CA ON THURSDAY.
344 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR /DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER T0 MID 30S/ THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ON THURSDAY NIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS NRN CALIF TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN SRN ZONES OF OREGON AND IDAHO AND ALSO IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE MID/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. THEY THEN MOVE THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER CENTRAL/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO DISTURBANCES IN THE SHORT RANGE, WITH COLDER AIR INTRUDING FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
THE AXIS OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SPLITTING PAC TROF CROSSING UT TODAY SITS FROM ROUGHLY NERN NV TO NERN AZ WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE PRECIP ACROSS OUR CWA. EXPECT THIS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NRN PORTION LINGERS OVER THE NORTH AND PRECIP COULD LAST INTO THIS EVE THERE. THIS NEXT TROF CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW OVER SERN NV BY MIDDAY THU AND PRECIP WRAPS BACK UP INTO SERN UT THAT AFTN THRU THE NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS NWRN UT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO NRN NEW MEXICO AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS LINGERS THRU FRI UNTIL UPSTREAM RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE CWA AND SHUTS IT DOWN.
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL COME INLAND ACROSS CALIF AND NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NEAR THE LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHT PCPN. ROAD TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WERE OBSERVED NEAR ONTARIO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 32 FROM NAMPA THROUGH BOISE TO ELMORE CO. PRECIP IS FILLING IN ALONG A CAMBRIDGE-KUNA AXIS AND WILL SLOWLY FILL IN ACROSS SW IDAHO. UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TO NV THURSDAY WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
334 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 S/W TROF AXIS OVER IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES/FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
1214 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
252 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT. AS THE MID/UPPER TROF MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WE WILL SEE THE PRECIP MOVE EAST OF SE TX ON THU MORNING AND WE WILL SEE SOME BRIEF DRYING. ANOTHER DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES ON FRI AFTERNOON AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TENDED UPWARD WITH RAIN CHCS WITH THIS FEATURE.
trough which should limit the ability of the recycled arctic air mass in place to saturate. This has led to a bit less cloudcover and temps a few degrees warmer than previous forecast grids.
/ISSUED 934 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. /ISSUED / THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PROVIDING AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME TO THE LOCAL AREA. DO EXPECT SOME MARGINAL TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AS OPPOSED TO THE 20S SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
WE COULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE CLOSE. BUT THE LOW CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN AT AMA THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SO HAVE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST. /ISSUED 1001 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/ CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 60S JUST OFF THE COAST AND WE ARE SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1032MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD RIDGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER OUR CWA TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA THURSDAY. OUR PWAT THIS MORNING WAS LESS THAN A THIRD OF AND INCH AND AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST.
THE COASTAL TROUGH IS THE MAIN FEATURE. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THAT WE ARE NOT SEEING GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF THE RADAR BEAM OVERSHOOTING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EASTERN SITES SHOULD LOWER CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COASTAL TROUGH IS KEEPING SOME STRONGER SHOWERS IN MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR BEING THE NAME IMPACT FROM THE FRONT. WILL NOT SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN ID. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A BROAD TROF MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. MASSIVE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INITIATING BROAD SCALE HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL GENERATE MID LEVEL LIFT AND ALLOW REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THESE SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE FRI BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TITLED CANADIAN TROUGH.
DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TOMORROW.
331 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
355 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE ROCKIES.
DIFFICULT TO TELL THIS TIME OF NIGHT IF ANY OF THE LOWERED VIS IS LEADING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL COME DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH BUT TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL HOLD OFF. COOLER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST IN COMPARISON TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE SOUTHEAST BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
302 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS AND WINDS GAIN MORE OF A SOUTHEAST/ SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
PATCHY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A DRY /ABOVE FREEZING/ WARM LAYER TO OVERCOME BEFORE SNOW P-TYPE SHOWS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SISSETON TO MILLER. EXPECTING THE STRATUS LAYER TO DEEPEN AND FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE UNTIL THE DRY LAYER IS OVERCOME BY SATURATION/WET-BULBING PROCESSES. HIGHWAYS/BRIDGES AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS TO BE ON. SETTING UP FROM WHEATON THROUGH ABERDEEN THEN OVER TO THE MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE REGION.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. OVERALL WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WEAK SHEAR AT TOP OF STRATUS/INVERSION HEIGHT. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME. BUT LIGHT ICING FROM FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE. WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND BLACK HILLS WILL SEE ONE LAST DAY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HAVE UPDATED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY TO WHAT THE TEMPERATURE DOWN THE DRY ADIABAT FROM 850 MB INDICATES. SHASTA CITY, WE'VE HAD A SLOPPY MESS OF RAIN, SNOW, AND EVEN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. IN THE MEAN TIME, IT'S STILL PLENTY TREACHEROUS IN THE AREA WITH ALL THE WATER, SLUSH, AND FREEZING RAIN. MODELS SHOW MOST AREAS GETTING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN THROUGH THE DAY, BUT MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DONUT HOLE IN THE RAIN OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY. ALL OF THIS WILL WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE, AS THE REST OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TREK DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DEEPEN INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. WEAK QG ASCENT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ARTIC FRONT THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW.
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE HAS ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS THUS FAR. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES ALSO WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN DECREASES AS WELL THANKS TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHARP TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. RIDGING AND DRIER AIR PULLING THROUGH ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHUTS OFF THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
317 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
851 AM PST WED JAN 6 2016 Freezing rain over northeast Washington and northern Idaho this morning will produce slick driving conditions especially on untreated roads.
BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER LATE TONIGHT AS WELL SO NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH.
325 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
316 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 MEMPHIS HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO THE LOW 50S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER MAY MAKE IT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST.