Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front in the vicinity late in the week into the weekend. With plenty of low level moisture in place and the expected short wave trof to move along that boundary, expect scattered showers thunderstorms to develop in the daytime heating. Some areas in the lowlands may top out in the low 90s by tomorrow afternoon.
A very quiet short term in store as we are still under the influence of drier air and high pressure. It will be another calm and clear night with temps a few degrees warmer than last night, but still a degree or two below normal. Highs tomorrow will be a degree or two warmer with temps near 90 for most places. With a high pressure ridge off the east coast and a weak SW flow through the lower and midlevels, a fairly typical summer pattern can be expected for the middle of this week.
1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 A few showers have tried to get going in the ACCAS field just ahead of the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA. Just slightly cooler today behind the cool front, but still toasty warm in the mid to upper 90s in southeast NE ahead of it, with heat index values near 105 there for a period this afternoon. Strong to severe convection was over eastern Iowa in advance of a warm front from northwest into east central Iowa. PoPs will increase for northern parts of the area tonight as short wave energy tracks east across the region and low level jet kicks in with convection late tonight as surface boundary, now a warm front lifts to the north.
This combined with an upper level disturbance moving across southern Canada and northern Montana will help break the ridge down that has dominated the area the past few days. However, this will be short-lived as the ridge will once again build back by mid-week into the upcoming weekend. Tomorrow, winds will be gusty from the west and northwest behind the front resulting in slightly cooler temperatures compared to what we have been experiencing. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler and humidities slightly higher, fire weather concerns will continue as a result of the gusty winds on existing fires and possible new fire starts from todays activity.
240 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and more troughing across the ern U. There is also a ridge across the Rockies. Then, a low pressure wave tracking from the Northern Plains and passing across Lower MI Wed night will bring increasing easterly winds Tue evening thru Wed. Winds will then diminish Wed night/Thu as high pressure builds into the Upper Lakes.
This is all due to an unsettled west-southwest flow aloft, finally breaking down the persistent ridge of high pressure. The weakening of the ridge has also resulted in an influx of moisture from down south, allowing the San Juans to be favored for activity. Temperatures have been running slightly cooler today as a result of the increase in clouds and showers with Grand Junction only peaking at 98 degrees as of 3:30 PM MDT.
Our forecast will remain void of precipitation mention while also favoring slightly warmer temperatures by one or two degrees over yesterday for most locations. Tuesday will see the continental ridge fully extended with our area barely on the south side of the west-east ridge axis.
118 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The upper ridge centered over the 4 Corners region this morning will spread east to the Atlantic over the next couple of days. However by the weekend the ridge will become centered over the west once again which could allow disturbances to track down into the area on northerly flow. At the surface S to SE flow will continue for the foreseeable future keeping the low levels moist. Dewpts range from the lower 60s in the east to the upper 40s in the higher elevations of the west. Have only had a few random echos on radar today but satellite shows CU developing across the mountains so will go ahead and add isolated pops to the higher elevations into this evening.
The persistent ridge over the SW US will flatten a bit on Tuesday. Should be quite warm to hot on Tuesday especially with more of a W to NW component to the low level flow.
/issued 1017 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ Upper-level ridge to build east today across the southern plains allowing for drier conditions across the region. Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures to climb into the lower 90s areawide.
Subtropical ridges centered over the Four Corners region and near Bermuda slowly bridge to each other in the short term as a broad inverted trough develops over southern Texas by Tuesday. Deeper moisture with PWS near 2 inches has pooled along and east of the Highway 77 corridor and generally remains there. Have continued to go a degree or two warmer than guidance for today and Tuesday based on recent trends.
Return of south-southwesterly winds have allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 80s at most locations with a few readings over 90 degrees, while dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are predominant.
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure both surface and aloft will remain in place over the Mid South through Tuesday. Temperatures will again climb into the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints remaining mainly in the 60s, which should keep heat indices below 100 degrees.
A cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday and will push south through the region Tuesday night.
Although temperatures have been suppressed with the morning convective activity, southerly winds should return quickly allowing temperatures to rebound for the afternoon, with highs reaching the lower 90s, and heat index nearing 100 degrees. Muggy lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Aloft, the upper high pressure ridge has built into AR more, and has lower the overall chance of any convection. The surface and upper high pressure ridge will suppress any convection chances today and Tuesday, as temperatures warm a bit.
High pressure aloft will gradually weaken through Tuesday then rebound across the area after midweek.
Surface analysis this afternoon shows low pressure over Iowa with broad southwesterly flow ahead of it across the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys. Plan on lows in the lower to middle 70s, warmest in the urban centers.
Thereafter, upper-level high pressure ridging will rebound over the CWA Tuesday night.
Broad high pressure ridge axis aloft providing widespread subsidence and few if any clouds across Kansas. Also, 12z NAM develops a 997 mb leeside trough from SE Colorado to NW Kansas, inducing stronger SW winds Tuesday afternoon. After 7 pm, on the periphery of the high pressure ridge's influence, a few thunderstorms may encroach upon the NW zones. A westerly down slope flow will continue on Tuesday as an upper ridge axis located across the Rockies breaks down and an upper level trough quickly moves east across the Northern Plains.
High pressure rebuilds later this week for warmer weather. The thunderstorms are also possible in the high desert later on, but all tstorms will disappear rather early this evening.
This within an area of weakness between the subtropical ridge and southwest CONUS high.
High pressure remained anchored over the four corners, however it was weaker and ridging extended north into the Northwest Territories of Canada. Closed lows were located over northeastern British Columbia, as well as Hudson Bay in Canada. A trough extended south of the British Columbia low into northern California, while a broad trough of low pressure extended from the Hudson Bay low south into the eastern Great Lakes. This will initiate convection across the higher terrain of eastern WYoming and northern Colorado around 22 to 24z. At the same time, the stationary front across southern Nebraska will drift slowly north as a warm front into the evening hours. Based on where the front is expected to lie down this evening, will continue to place the highest pops north of highway 92.
An approaching disturbance is causing the strong ridge of high pressure to finally break down. Westerly flow will persist over the northern Rockies through Tuesday keeping the temperatures cooler to near normal readings.
Based on temperatures trends of late, trended toward the warmer mav guidance for highs on Tuesday.
2) along and north of the warm front. There could be more interaction between the features, and a lot will depend on just where the nose of the low level jet points.
Meanwhile, Bermuda high pressure builds back into the region for most the week.
High pressure builds offshore on Tuesday bringing increasingly hot and humid conditions to the area through midweek.
VFR conditions expected again through the period as drier air and high pressure are still in place across the forecast area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Satellite and radar images indicate isolated convection continues to develop across the coastal sections of the CWA this afternoon as the seabreeze front across the lower Texas coast moves further inland. 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and a 500mb inverted trough across eastern Mexico will continue to bring moisture into northeast Mexico tonight into Tuesday. Isolated showers will likely develop across the coastal waters Tues night and move inland across the lower TX coast late Tues night into early Wed morning.
Mid-level troughing will gradually transition to a more zonal flow regime, with rising 500 mb heights pointing to a continued warm and humid trend.
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep dry conditions along with seasonably hot temperatures in place today. Sunny skies can be expected with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s. /issued 354 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ Seasonal mid-July weather will prevail across the Midsouth this week, as ridging aloft gradually strengthens.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands the rest of the afternoon into this evening even as an inverted 500mb trough across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas allows isolated convection to continue to develop across eastern portions of the CWA. as the seabreeze front across the lower TX coast continues to move further inland. /issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the southwest United States will continue to flatten out through the period and spread eastward, keeping the CWA between it and an inverted 500 mb trough across eastern and northern Mexico. Models show drier air continuing to infiltrate the lower to mid levels, with a nice dry pocket from about 850 to 600 mb or so, especially evident this afternoon and into Tuesday.
The typical summertime environment should continue into the week, but towards the end of the week, a building ridge aloft should push temperatures up, and keep convection restricted more towards the seabreeze boundary.
On Tuesday, early-day clouds could linger across portions of northeast NE into west-central IA, holding temperatures to around 90 or the lower 90s. When coupled with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, afternoon heat indicies will approach 105 degrees. Currently, the highest probability of these values being reached is across portions of southeast NE where we will extend the heat advisory until 8 PM Tuesday.
Weak pressure gradient from a weak high pressure ridge over the northern Gulf will result in light winds outside of thunderstorm activity.
Surface dewpoints continue to mix out into the lower to middle 60s at this hour across our southwestern counties, but moisture content steadily increases as you head towards the north and east. Carlaw The ridge currently over the four corners will continue to diminish our rain chances for Tuesday as it spreads closer to North and Central Texas. Slight rain chances will be confined to areas southeast of a Sulphur Springs to Corsicana to Cameron line due to the higher moisture content being advected northward.
CAMS are showing afternoon convection developing over the higher terrain areas of the Northern Rockies. An area of low pressure and surface cold front will cross the region during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. This system, along with an upper level trough will become the focus for thunderstorm development mainly in the NE portion of the CWA.
Threat for convection is fairly low but continued the lower 20-30% PoPs roughly in the counties along and south of I-80 to account for isolated activity. Heat Indices: The highest dewpoints, in the mid 70s, are forecast to reside in the counties along and south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, Illinois for Tuesday afternoon.
On Tuesday Upper level and surface ridging over the Atlantic will lift north to lie across the northern peninsula during the day. Temperatures on Tuesday will run a few degrees above normal with highs climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and lower to mid 90s inland. Mid-upper level ridging continues to extend across the Florida peninsula from near Bermuda.
250 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Another spectacular blue sky was in place, and a clear sky is again anticipated tonight as high pressure ridging stays in place across the central and upper TN valley. Dew points are slightly higher today and weak southerly flow will enable lows to be warmer tonight, mainly in the m-u60s. The 5h sheared vorticity lobe will remain across central MS-AL-GA thru Tuesday as a weak sfc trof-8h wave tracks northward into the same general area during the afternoon.
336 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure continued to build eastward across the Southern Plains this afternoon. conditions are not expected to waver much across the region while high pressure remains the dominate feature over the southern half of the CONUS. Hot and humid conditions are forecast for the CWA with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. mainly over the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
614 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 A dying cold front will approach from the Great Lakes this evening, then stall out just north of Pennsylvania for the next few days. Much high humidity, along with cloud cover, will result in a much warmer night than recent ones, with min temps mostly between 65-70F.
Active lee trough in place with southerly WAA continuing to keep stronger dewpoints over eastern portions of KS.
1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The main concern for the next three days will remain the high temperatures and especially the high heat index values. A low pressure system over northern Iowa will cause an axis of WAA over northern Missouri to develop along the warm sector of a weak east- west oriented frontal boundary.
Increased the winds some for Tuesday due to a rather strong pressure gradient with the next cold front. Weak high pressure over the state will give way to a dry cold front expected to move through the area Tuesday. Two mainly dry short waves and associated cold fronts sweep through the region during the workweek.
Meanwhile upstream, the upper low over eastern North Dakota will continue sliding southeast this morning. A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow has accompanied this activity, but it is beginning to head into a colder atmosphere so it should transition to snow as it progresses into central and eastern Minnesota during the next few hours. Additional snow showers are possible with the upper low itself as it passes overhead, but they should be scattered and light with minimal accumulation. Drier air will filter in behind the low's passage with precip chances ending this afternoon. Winds on the western side of the upper low have been strengthening over the Dakotas. It may be tougher to get those kinds of gusts this far east given the track of the low.
Plenty of cloud cover thanks to a low pressure system sitting over Baja California.
1253 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure along with cold and dry air will remain in control of the region as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest.
A cold front will traverse the Mid-South this evening with gusty post-frontal winds possible during the overnight period. Temperatures will be on the order of 15-20 degrees cooler for tomorrow. Ahead of the cold front associated with this low pressure system expect warm air to bulge into the Mid-South as 850 mb temps climb above 10C. The cold front pushes through during the evening.
214 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over the southern states will weaken overnight allowing a dry cold front to cross the area Tuesday morning.
The forecast of low clouds (stratus), freezing fog (producing rime ice or hoarfrost), and below normal temperatures will remain common this week throughout many valleys across Central Idaho and Western Montana.
A cold front will be entering into Southeast, Northeast Texas, and Southwest Arkansas between 12/01-12/03Z to near the Interstate 30 corridor, to near a KELD-KSHV-KTYR line between 12/03-12/05Z, and a KMLU_KLFK line between 12/05-12/07Z.
428 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over the Southern States will weaken overnight allowing a dry cold front to cross the area Tuesday morning.
At the surface, west to southwest winds remain light with temperatures in the low/mid 70s. With dewpoints in the low 30s, relative humidity levels are quite low from the upper teens to upper 20 percent. Tonight a cold front located over the Southern Plains at 21Z should push through the area after midnight and off the coast by 12-13Z Tuesday. Overall the front will be relatively unnoticed with winds turning northerly with re-enforcing cooler/drier air.
The associated weakening should largely account for the weakening in the system's precipitation threat as progged my most of the high- resolution models. Weak ridging moving through central IL this morning, resulting in some variability in the winds, but generally more southerly flow at the surface. Tuesday, the cold air mass will keep the highs in the upper 20s/near 30.
A cold front will push of the area this evening ushering colder temperatures back into the Ozarks region. Dry cold frontal passages will occur every couple of days resulting in fluctuating temperatures and variable wind direction. Pilots can expect gusty winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest this afternoon as a cold front pushes across the region. Winds will shift the west and northwest this afternoon as a dry cold front pushes southeast across the region.
Latest water vapor imagery highlights the potent mid/upper low circulating and shifting into southeast North Dakota early this morning. Highs today will mainly be in the upper 30s to around 40F west and most of central, but colder from the Turtle Mountains into the northern James River Valley, with temperatures into the lower 30s this afternoon. Warm air advection commences from west to east tonight as a warm front slides through. Expect mainly cloudy conditions central with a partly cloudy sky developing west behind the warm front. Western and central ND will be in the warm sector Tuesday per passage of the warm front from the short term period. Highs Tuesday will range from the lower and mid 30s east central to around 50F southwest.
1223 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 An alberta clipper will track just north of Pennsylvania tonight, with a trailing arctic cold front sweeping through the area Tuesday.
High pressure parked across the western United States will result in dry and quiet weather this week. Temperatures will be well above average for this time of year with highs in the middle and upper 70s across the lower deserts.
Left Coast ridge transitions to deep Eastern States trough. Will continue to fight temperature forecast with inversions in place but for the most part it remains status quo with the high valleys and basins struggling to hit most guidance and mid slopes seeing the warmest temperatures.
238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A dry cold front was making its way southeast across Missouri this afternoon. The front will cross the lower Ohio Valley this evening, followed by increasing northwest winds and post-frontal stratocumulus clouds. Winds will diminish as high pressure builds closer.
249 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through tonight, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation. A more prominent low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night, pushing a strong cold front through the local area.
This will create northwesterly steering flow over the Great Plains where disturbances will send a series of cold fronts through our CWA.
233 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over the southern states will weaken overnight allowing a dry cold front to cross the area Tuesday morning.
These clouds will begin to fade this evening as ridging builds further south.
1245 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will extend over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states today through tonight.
135 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure parked across the western United States will result in dry and quiet weather this week. Temperatures will be well above average for this time of year with highs in the middle and upper 70s across the lower deserts. While not nearly as influential as several nights ago, some gusty ridge top/gap LLJ winds should keep overnight lows locally elevated, then begin a deeper mixing process Tuesday.
142 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions along with valley inversions, cold nights, and light winds for the next several days. Inversions should ease by the end of the week as a weak cold front brushes the Oregon border, but no precipitation is expected. Mild days and cool nights will continue as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. This morning's low temperatures were a perfect example of the inversion -- most valleys were in the teens and single digits while midslopes and ridges above the inversion had lows in the mid 30s to low 40s! Guidance is actually suggesting slightly cooler temps the next couple of nights, despite the airmass really not changing much.
320 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Front is working its way through the South Plains this afternoon with slightly cooler air in its wake. Will make for a chilly Tuesday morning with low in the mid 20s on the Caprock and near 30 in the lower elevations.
302 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure will move east tonight. A strong upper level disturbance and associated cold front will move east across the mid- Atlantic region Tuesday. As the strong mid/upper level trough approaches from the NW tonight, it will be milder as high cloudiness and even a southwesterly flow increase. Gusty NW winds to 25-30 mph with wind chills in the 10-15 The main cold front and upper level feature will move across central NC between 12z and 18z. Once the cold front passes, winds will shift to the WSW and increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Readings will slip below freezing within a few hours of sunset in the Triad, and by late evening in the Triangle. Lows will be in the lower to mid 20s.
231 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 /Tonight/ After a very warm, sunny, and near record temperature-breaking afternoon, a cold front lurks on the horizon across the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma. The cold front should clear our Central Texas counties well before sunrise. Initially, the surface cold front will bring a subtle shift of current westerly winds to northwest at 10-15 mph, before strong low level cold advection and a shift to the north at 15-20 mph arrive 3-4 hours post passage.
Winds will then shift out of of the north late in the night through Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the region.
A cold front meanwhile approaching from the west moves through late tonight with winds shifting to the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots in the wake of the front.
231 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) A weak cold front will move through West Central Texas this evening into early Tuesday morning, resulting in a wind shift to the north at 5 to 10 mph. Winds behind the front may stay up just enough to hinder radiational cooling conditions somewhat, but still expect most locations to drop into the low to mid 30s. Cooler temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday, with highs near to slightly below seasonal normals. A large upper level trough over the eastern half of the U. One of these is currently moving east into western IL, which will push a cold front through tonight.