Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
343 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
THE NEAR SURFACE RIDGING UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT PROVIDE A ROAD BLOCK FOR TRUE RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. AIRMASS MODERATION SUPPORTS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY AREAWIDE. DEEP RIDGING TONIGHT WITH AN INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH READINGS RUNNING IN THE 50S.
326 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
518 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTC COAST TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING OUR DRY/PLEASANT AIR TO BE REPLACED BY MOIST/MUGGY AIR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IS ONLY THE BEGINNING.
THE SYNOPIC PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW.
325 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THIS HAS HELPED TO SET UP A PRETTY GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 40S SO THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE CLOSED IN THOSE COOLER VALLEYS LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG.
155 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY TONIGHT.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A COMBINATION OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT. LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT. AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH OUR AREA. WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
123 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE WEST.
THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP COOL CONDITIONS TUE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI.
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN THE LOW 60S. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT.
125 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER OREGON AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
However, do not expect widespread showers and thunderstorm development as the NAM also shows an upper level ridge will build over the Midwest with the NAM/ECMWF showing either neutral or subsidence over the area. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with 850mb temperatures around +10C.
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS STARTED TO INFLUENCE THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE HIGH IS NESTLED DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT RISES.
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US SHIFTS EASTWARD. UPR RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY MIDWEEK AS EJECTING LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON AREA POPS/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS IT BECOMES "SANDWICHED" BETWEEN A MIGRATING /WEST/ CUT-OFF LOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DEVIATE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
Convection ramps up considerably in the evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated with the incoming upper trof. On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift northeastward over the southern and central plains.
WHILE WESTERN TROUGH RELOADS. WITH SOME DAYS IN THE PERIOD BEING WARMER/SOME COOLER THAN INIT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SAT.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS NEARING THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING AS A 90-KT JET WAS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER THE CWA BUT WAS GETTING DAMPED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. FOR TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MUCH BETTER LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO ERN WY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER ERN WY WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS WRN SD. ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
WEAK ENERGY WILL STREAM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
405 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL START TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE, WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE DDC CWA.
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN THE LOW 60S. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY. WHILE KEEPING A NARROW RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CONTINUED RIDGING WILL HELP TO SLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
139 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER.
THE MODELS ALL AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OFF OF THIS WAS OVER NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. IT WILL CLOUD UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE 60S. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS CWA.
AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IS SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. BUT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
High pressure ridging from the upper Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic coast will keep our weather quiet today and tonight. As the upper trof digs through the west, ridging will pump up over the southeast United States. The upper ridge will help to keep most locations dry on Sunday. Not much of a trigger present, other than a very weak surface trof combined with afternoon heating. High temperatures will be in the lower and middle 80s on south winds gusting to near 20 mph in the afternoon.
ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. BUT SHOULD ALSO KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large part from the southerly winds. The low level jet to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e pushing precipital waters to over 1.
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE GRADUAL UPSTREAM DRYING. BREEZY ONSHORE WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE EARLY-MID WEEK THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS. SO EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL BE WEAKENING MID-LATE WEEK. THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE- 700MB EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE HIGHEST POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST/WRN ATLC WATERS WELL NORTH OF ECFL WILL PROMPT CURRENT NNE WINDS TO VEER TO NE/ENE THRU THE DAY AND PERHAPS E/ESE TONIGHT.
LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS MORNING. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.
ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS HAVE THIS COMPLEX LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR NORTHWEST. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U. AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE, WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE DDC CWA.
/ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40-50 KTS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT THEN PICK RIGHT BACK UP BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
129 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST. DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER NW AZ LIFTS NE INTO UTAH TODAY. TROFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW DROPS INTO THE DESERT SW ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON TODAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE N/NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW LATE THIS WEEKEND. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID WEST A STRONG SURGE OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE DRAWN NWD INTO MN/WI. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION.
IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IF THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD STRATUS. UPPER TROUGH ALOFT AND A WAVE MOVE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED.
546 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTC COAST TONIGHT.
MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND ARRIVE OVER NW COLORADO BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
1031 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015 The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average, with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
RIDGE AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS PACKAGE.
613 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME. ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE AFTERNOON AND NT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SPOTS. BUT COOLER TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT.
311 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT THE BIG STORY WILL REMAIN THE WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. TODAY THRU SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO ROLL OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY EJECT THRU THE MO/OH VALLEYS EARLY-MID WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (U70S- L80S) AND SUNDAY (L-M80S). OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE 10-15 DEGREE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WE HAVE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCES WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM WYOMING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO COLORADO TONIGHT AND INTO WYOMING TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
314 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON SUNDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW.
GFS KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST. DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST.
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A TALL AND CLOSED ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADE TO CENTRAL TEXAS COMPLETE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOCALLY. BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD PLAY OUT IN THE NRN PANHANDLE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE TROUGH AND A STALLING FRONT. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO SHAKE OUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING WHILST VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO HOLD THE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AT LEAST THROUGH 120 HOURS BEFORE IT EJECTS NEWRD INTO SRN CANADA.