Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
332 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 A cold front moves through tonight and Sunday which could bring a few more showers or thunderstorms.
Then for most of the upcoming week a low level east to southeast flow will persist, except across portions of the Nature Coast where a more southeast to south flow will setup during the second half of the week as the ridge axis drifts south into central Florida.
This could potentially keep high temperatures several degrees cooler for southeast Kansas and central Missouri than counties further north.
Elsewhere around the area, mostly sunny and hot conditions will prevail with highs in the lower 90s.
While a cold front is expected to cross the region tonight into Sunday, there is a lot of dry air present that will make it difficult for locations to receive precipitation. Much of the rain currently associated with the cold front is north of Lake Ontario and moving to the southeast, so that rain would pass east of the region. There will be enough cloud cover to shrink the diurnal curve over the next 24 hours, keeping overnight temps a little warmer and daytime temps a little cooler.
1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Broad upper ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies with Tropical Storm Barry just south of the southern LA coast. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Ohio Valley with a weak stationary front extending from southern MN into western Nebraska. Upper ridge isn't expected to move much through the weekend.
As Barry continues to progress inland, high pressure builds over the rest of the southeastern states and the remnants of Barry are expected to track over the high pressure before becoming swept up into the westerly flow north of the local forecast area. QPF values over the next 7 days are around a quarter of an inch to about 2 inches, with the highest amounts across northern Georgia.
As for temperatures, with little change to the general air mass across the high plains tonight, look for lows back down into the 60s(F).
241 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Upper level ridge centered over the southern Rockies will keep the Panhandles under a northeast flow aloft through Sunday.
At the beginning of the period Tropical Storm Barry or just a tropical depression will be in Southern Arkansas and to the east across the forecast area there will be an upper ridge aloft.
A short wave trough in western sd this morning will continue to move east through the day into eastern sd. Looks like continued climo-like temperatures and humidity for mid- July with an upper pattern that features a low amplitude western CONUS ridge and low amplitude eastern CONUS trough, with fairly zonal flow aloft.
223 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 (Tonight and Sunday) Quiet weather is expected for tonight and tomorrow as a high pressure ridge continues to sit across the area. For tomorrow, expect sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s.
With upper level high pressure remaining anchored near the Four Corners and moisture in place, expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region through the weekend. After today, models were now showing the upper high becoming suppressed southward as a trough of low pressure moves through the Intermountain West early this week. Thereafter, the general trend will be an upswing in thunderstorm chances as the upper high becomes more amplified in response to a trough of low pressure deepening along the west coast.
Assisting the storms tomorrow will be a cold front that will pass through from east to west in the evening, helping to assist a more linear, MCS storm mode. All areas of impact will also be similar, with storms initiating over the mountains in the afternoon, and moving east into the lower plains and across SE MT through the evening and into the night.
to begin at 18Z, although the higher winds within the Wind Adv.
1005 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Strong high pressure aloft centered near the four corners region will hold position today then drift to the southeast late in the weekend. Moisture working north around the high pressure will spawn afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
While a cold front is expected to cross the region tonight into Sunday, there is a lot of dry air present that will make it difficult for locations to receive precipitation. There will be enough cloud cover to shrink the diurnal curve over the next 24 hours, keeping overnight temps a little warmer and daytime temps a little cooler.
This is in part due to Pacific high pressure at the surface and a ridge of high pressure aloft centered over the southern Rockies, providing us with dry and stable conditions. While it is always difficult to tell how much sun versus clouds each coastal location will see day to day, the general trend through the next few days should be for a weaker inversion as we see a bit more cooling aloft, with mid and upper-level troughiness settling southward from the Pacific Northwest.
320 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Saturday, central and northern Montana experience highs reaching into the low nineties, while thunderstorms sweep through our area from southwest to northeast. Central and northern Montana highs reach into the low 90's, with dew point temperatures ranging in the upper 40's to upper 50's. The trough approaches from the west and an attendant surface cold front is expected to pass through the region.
low temperatures overnight tonight are expected to be several degrees warmer compared to the past two nights with upper 60s and lower 70s forecast.
Otherwise minor changes were done elsewhere and overnight temps should fall into the 60s with 50s across the higher elevations.
High pressure will push east across the UP into the Mid Atlantic states between tonight and tomorrow night.
528 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains. Due to a staunch cap overhead and subsidence beneath upper ridge and in between waves, cu is having a hard time developing across the region this afternoon. Sunday should be the hottest day with thermal ridge overhead, with most areas in the 90s.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019/ The region remains between an upper ridge to the west, currently anchored over northern New Mexico/southern Colorado, and Tropical Storm Barry, which has made landfall over the southern Louisiana coast. Temperatures this afternoon are on their way to topping out near normal in the lower to middle 90s for most, with northeasterly flow aloft and at the surface yielding dry conditions.
The highest rainfall totals also continue to shift westward.
/issued 223 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019/ (Tonight and Sunday) Quiet weather is expected for tonight and tomorrow as a high pressure ridge continues to sit across the area. For tomorrow, expect sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s.
Showers & storms should increase in coverage along & west of I-25 over the next few hours in advance of an upper-level short wave trough lifting north east across the Great Basin.
A trough of low pressure will deepen over the west coast the next several days while high pressure in the desert southwest pushes eastward.
535 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 UPDATED AVIATION Saturday, central and northern Montana experience highs reaching into the low nineties, while thunderstorms sweep through our area from southwest to northeast. Central and northern Montana highs reach into the low 90's, with dew point temperatures ranging in the upper 40's to upper 50's. The trough approaches from the west and an attendant surface cold front is expected to pass through the region.
High pressure will continue to build westward from the Atlantic and will become centered over the northeast Florida waters tonight. High pressure will then gradually sink south of the northeast Florida waters towards midweek, resulting in prevailing southerly winds.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms across SW Idaho and the higher elevations of SE OR.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 72 90 / 70 40 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 86 70 88 / 60 50 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 86 70 89 / 60 50 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 87 67 88 / 20 20 10 30.
CIMSS layer mean wind analysis shows deep ridging centered to our northeast across central Florida. The strongest winds look to occur in the vicinity of the Lower Keys out towards the western Straits where the pressure gradient is maximized.
As for temperatures, with little change to the general air mass across the high plains tonight, look for lows back down into the 60s(F). Seasonally warm and dry conditions will continue through the middle part of the week as medium range models show persistent weak ridging aloft remaining settled across the Western High Plains for much of the period.
659 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains off to the west of the area this afternoon, but has shifted a little closer to the region. As a result, temperatures have been able to warm into the middle 80s to the lower 90s currently. Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to those that are occurring this afternoon, with highs in the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
922 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 West Atlantic ridge nudging into Florida tonight will keep a relatively light E/SE flow across the area. This onshore flow and drier air in the lower levels kept convection limited across east central Florida this afternoon and evening, and no additional showers or storms are expected across the area overnight. Lows overnight will generally range from the low to mid 70s.
The ridge will briefly breakdown by midweek, as what is left of Barry is picked up by the northern stream westerlies.
Northeasterly flow aloft will continue with the upper ridge axis centered to our west and Tropical Storm Barry pushing further inland across Louisiana. Highs will climb into the lower to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Areas ahead of the trough will keep drawing up warmer air on southerly flow.
Expect diurnal convection through the weekend, with somewhat drier conditions for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. Morning lows in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging east of "Barry" will begin building into the area through the day. The remnants of "Barry" will be moving slowly up the Mississippi River Valley early this week which allows high pressure to build over the Southeast U. Subsiding air underneath this high will lead to a reduced chance of precipitation.
Upper ridge near the Four-Corners with dry and subsident northeast flow will hold into Monday. Late Monday, the ridge will de-amplify with Pacific wave action skirting by to the north resulting in brief northwest flow aloft Monday night. Flow aloft does not look very strong, mostly under 20 knots at the 500 millibar level, but solutions appear consistent moving scattered thunderstorms southeast off the higher terrain to our west.
Little change in the overall upper level pattern as high pressure remains anchored across the 4-corners area with an active southwesterly upper level flow across the northern Rockies as a series of impulses top the ridge. Monday should be slightly cooler behind the front, with mostly 80s.
308 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Upper ridge remains situated over the southern Rockies with Tropical Storm Barry now on shore over central LA. Did go ahead and insert some very small shower/storm chances this afternoon over far southeast KS as some cooler mid level temps from Barry work into the area. Did keep some slight chances for storms Mon afternoon but confidence is high that the higher impact heavy rain will stay east of the forecast area. Did go slightly cooler for Mon for areas along and east of I-135 with an increase in cloud cover expected. GFS is more agressive then the ECMWF in trying to bring down a weak cold front into northern KS Thu night into Fri.
A broad ridge dominate the western half of the CONUS, with weakly northwesterly flow over much of the Upper Midwest.
Evening Update: Just slightly warmer over most locations on Sat and some minor cooling is expected over most locations on Sun. This is due to minor changes in the synoptic pattern over Norcal as the Four Corners High and TS/HRCN Barry impede the progress and effects of the trof moving into the Pac NW this weekend. JHM A trough of low pressure will deepen over the west coast the next several days while high pressure in the desert southwest pushes eastward.
The most likely change is with slightly cooler temperatures from central Missouri and points south as cloud cover builds ahead of Barry. Better precip chances will hold off until Monday afternoon as Barry continues to advance north, though the upstream ridge should limit precip to central Missouri and points southeast. Monday afternoon highs will be limited to the low 80s across these areas where more notable cloud cover will be present, while areas generally north of the Missouri River will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s.
Mid-level high pressure over ne Fl today will produce hot and mostly dry conditions. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s at the coast before the seabreeze forms.
The upper ridge will continue to build across the Midwest, and daytime temperatures Sunday should reach the lower 90s, and then the lower to mid 90s Monday. A weak front does try to push into northeast Nebraska Monday night, however it's having a hard time pushing southward into the ridge.
Isolated showers have dissipated across the north as the cold front drops into the CWA. Moisture is largely absent with the boundary, and what little upper support there is for lift will decrease toward morning with the departure of a mid-level trough axis. Nighttime low temperatures will dip degree or two below normal, with clear sky and light wind provided by high pressure. As the remnants of Barry start to lift northward along the Mississippi River on Monday/Monday night, it will induce downstream southwest flow that will start to push the frontal boundary back into our region as a warm front.
Low temperatures will range from the lower 70s across the northwestern interior sections to the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas. Tropical Storm Barry will continue to move northward through the lower Mississippi Valley throughout the rest of the weekend. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure located over the western Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through the early portion of the week.
112 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure offshore will build back toward land, limiting shower and thunderstorm activity to isolated in coverage.
Upper ridge expands a bit on Monday, and could see more heat advisory conditions, especially along and west of I-29.
Elsewhere around the area, mostly sunny and hot conditions will prevail with highs in the lower 90s. While some models try to aggressively spread precip northward into the area, think prevailing ridge of high pressure and corresponding synoptic subsidence well ahead of Barry will keep the precip largely at bay.
253 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Very warm weather today, but less humid as a cold front sweeps across our region.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms /ie the outer bands/ are expected again today in the easterly flow north of the cyclone. Based on the latest track, NW AR should remain to the west of the cyclone and thus the latest QPF forecast was trended lower with this update.
A cold front will bring some cooling for Sunday with continued breezy conditions. The rest of the region shall be fairly quiet excluding late morning winds behind the weak cold front passing through the region. Wind speeds across the region are expected to increase for the Columbia Basin into the low 20 MPH range. A weak trough will dig in late Sunday AM, tighten the gradient, and bring increased winds to region with gusts near 20kts from the SW.
/Issued 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019/ Upper level ridge centered over the southern Rockies will keep the Panhandles under a northeast flow aloft through Sunday.
Broad ridging remains across much of the central US today.
On Tue, associated closed upper low opens and its then upper trough will take at least through Wed night to move east of the area. do expected development to be a bit less east of I-65 as warm front pcpn focused on yesterday is expected to move north of the of the area while a weak high moves in from the east. EURO favors ridging across much of the east, centered up in the OH valley. GFS keep ridging further west, with almost a summer clipper type trough over the east, which brings a front/pcpn though the area Sat.
Expect little change in temperatures today due to a ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners region.
1046 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains. Due to a staunch cap overhead and subsidence beneath upper ridge and in between waves, cu is having a hard time developing across the region this afternoon. Sunday should be the hottest day with thermal ridge overhead, with most areas in the 90s.
Another fairly warm day is expected today with highs likely reaching the mid to upper 80s across much of southern Wisconsin, however light east/southeast winds will keep areas near the shore a bit cooler.
1158 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains off to the west of the area this afternoon, but has shifted a little closer to the region. As a result, temperatures have been able to warm into the middle 80s to the lower 90s currently. Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to those that are occurring this afternoon, with highs in the middle 80s to the lower 90s. The system is expected to track through the area with the heaviest rainfall occurring east of the low.
Additional nocturnal activity likely tonight given 850-700mb theta-e ridge and boundaries.
Deep layer ridging off the east coast will remain across the eastern half of the CWA and keep some drier air entrenched through much of SW GA and the FL Big Bend. Highs today will be slightly warmer into the lower 90s with heat indices approaching 100 degrees.
PWAT values remain abnormally high across eastern Utah and western Colorado, as residual moisture wraps around the high pressure system centered over northeast New Mexico. A deepening trough of low pressure off the PacNW will start to tighten the pressure gradient over northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Monday afternoon, producing an uptick in afternoon winds. Anomalously low heights will continue to feed into the high latitudes from the Aleutians to the northern Pacific Coast of NOAM this week. This will generally keep a trough along the PacNW coast. suppressing the subtrop ridge to our south. However as energy and jet maxima rotate through this general trough the ridge will deform and bulge at times and feed a bit of moisture back northward into our far southern CWA.
1041 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Very warm weather today, but less humid as a cold front sweeps across our region.
An upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to meander around the southwestern and south-central states for the next several days.
A weak cold front pull south, east of the Divide tonight. This will result in cooler conditions for northern Wyoming Monday.
Current winds average 10 to 18 knots across Hawk Channel, tending higher west of the Seven Mile Bridge. From synopsis, a high pressure cell will extend west across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period.
High pressure remained centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border during the early morning.
High pressure will bring another seasonally warm day to northern California. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler though, with most locations in the Valley making it into the 90s to near 100 degrees while the mountains and foothills span from the upper 60s to the low 90s. Tomorrow, the ridge over the Desert Southwest will give way to a digging trough over the Pacific Northwest.
409 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 The synoptic scale weather pattern features a persistent features a strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the central Rockies and central plains, while a trough of low pressure aloft from the northwestern US states and northern Rockies.
Models and BUFR soundings this morning indicated only high level moisture will proceed an upper level disturbance as it moves through the upper ridge axis over the Rockies and out into the Western High Plains later today. As for temperatures today and Monday will based the highs on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends which indicated highs today will be similar or a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
00Z GFS persisted in developing an eastern CONUS northern branch longwave trof and associated late week surface cold frontal through the Midsouth. The weekend periods remain based off the ECMWF and Canadian blends, with hot and humid conditions prevailing under a 5940m 500mb height ridge.
645 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Upper ridge remains situated over the southern Rockies with Tropical Storm Barry now on shore over central LA. Did go ahead and insert some very small shower/storm chances this afternoon over far southeast KS as some cooler mid level temps from Barry work into the area. Did keep some slight chances for storms Mon afternoon but confidence is high that the higher impact heavy rain will stay east of the forecast area. Did go slightly cooler for Mon for areas along and east of I-135 with an increase in cloud cover expected. GFS is more agressive then the ECMWF in trying to bring down a weak cold front into northern KS Thu night into Fri.
Mid/upper level high pressure will build over the area today, and this will suppress convective activity this afternoon.
Did trend with warmer model solutions as temperatures the past couple days have been closer to the warmer models temperatures. However, that being said, Monday could be a concern for a headline as heat indicies will be approaching 100 degrees, this will be monitored as a forecast of a couple degrees warmer will put heat indicies above 100.
A weak upper level trough will bring showers to the Olympics and North Cascades today.
547 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Area of high pressure becoming centered over lower Michigan today will provide favorable VFR conditions throughout the period. The relatively cool airmass that will slowly advect into Se Mi today and limited mixing depths due to the mid level subsidence will support afternoon highs mainly in the low 80s, with mid/upper 70s across the thumb and Port Huron regions. The airmass associated with this high is rather dry and will sustain sfc dewpoints in the 50s today with ample afternoon sunshine. A warm frontal feature is forecast to lift into western Lower Mi during the day.
Subtropical moisture will continue to move into the forecast areas from the west/southwest, around a ridge of high pressure centered over northwestern New Mexico. High resolution models initiate deep convection over the higher terrain after 16z. It looks like a very warm week ahead as a strong upper level ridge pattern is forecast to dominate the weather picture across the southern half of the country.
Lowered the POPs across the southern TN Valley through the rest of the morning due to the high amount of cloud cover currently in place but didn't adjust afternoon POPs. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 73 92 73 / 30 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 70 90 71 / 50 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 84 71 90 71 / 50 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 90 67 / 30 20 20 20.
This moisture level will be enough when combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes to see isolated to scattered convection this afternoon and early evening with the highest rain chances once again across southwest Florida. Also, with the lowering seas will be allowing the High Surf Advisory to expire at 10 AM EDT, but will continue to see a High Rip Current Risk into this evening.
The impressive 4-corners high of recent days will be suppressed by a low pressure area sinking down from the Pacific Northwest. While the 4-corners high remains strong, there is an upper low pressure area in the Pacific Northwest region that is pushing on the ridge and will nudge the monsoon flow eastward tonight upon de-amplification of the ridge.