Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTER KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT COOLER TOMORROW. TRENDED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
DIURNAL PATTERN EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED WITH WCSB HAVING ALREADY REACHED THE MID-FLORIDA RIDGE FROM POLK COUNTY SWD. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTHEAST U.
11 /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/ ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE AND HI- RES MODELS ARE POINTING TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FINALLY OPENING UP AND KICKING EAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST SHEAR.
322 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MADE VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AND IS STILL LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S.
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWING TREND. COULD SEE GREATER COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE EVENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION.
Winds will become elevated late Sunday morning out of the northwest as a cold front moves into the area. Low level westerly flow continues to advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline clears the forecast area to the east.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.
323 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO CONTINUE SCT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST THAT IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE MODEST WARM ADVECTION REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
623 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONG LOW TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL KEEP THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND FORCES A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A DECENT AREA OF RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
Temperatures are well on their way to around 80 for highs and may end up more solidly into the lower 80s if the upper level clouds do not limit insolation too much. The remainder of the day will be partly cloudy and warm for this time of year as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft. Dry weather will not last, however, as a low pressure system moves out of the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and across Indiana Sunday.
349 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.
MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE TROF / FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED OUT OF MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
ALLOWED FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR THE CORTEZ AND NUCLA AREAS AS TEMPS THERE ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING OR WILL BE SO SHORTLY. TODAY IS THE DAY IN WHICH THE CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. A LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AIDED BY A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER IS UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CRASH THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL LIFT OUT AND COLLIDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FORMING A VERY LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW. UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE SHARPLY ACROSS NRN CANADA SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH CIRCULATE COOL AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE 06Z TEXAS TECH WRF AND 15Z HRRR BOTH FORECASTED BEST CHANCES STARTING NEAR THE COAST BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
340 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL OPEN UP AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND TEMPERATURES WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS COOL REGION-WIDE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. AGAIN OTHER THAN AN ENHANCED MARINE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE. MODEL SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR TRI BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH DECENT SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE BREAK DOESN'T LAST LONG THOUGH AS CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE WITH APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND GET ABSORBED BY UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE U.
SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO. AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE.
613 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TOMORROW WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
WITH FULLY MATURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN CONTROL AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DETAILS: MILD AND DRY TONIGHT WILL ALL ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINING WELL REMOVED TO OUR WEST ALONG SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THEN TURNING COOLER WITH SHOWERS. DECENT MIXING WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ANOTHER DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FLATTEN OUT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
242 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH DURING THE DAY AND SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A BIT FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES OF UP TO 10 DEGREES. REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. AS A WELL DEFINED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN CONUS BORDER.
633 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET AND WARM THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
317 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 Warmer conditions this afternoon should extend to Thursday for much of the forecast area. Temperatures will be at least a category cooler over the far western counties on Thursday with a weakening of the surface downslope, however temperatures across south central Kansas may be even warmer, easily reaching the middle 90s or higher ahead of the developing thermal discontinuity.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW ATMOSPHERIC HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AGAIN TODAY AS A LEE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AREA.
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015/ A BIT WARMER TONIGHT WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TODAY OR TOMORROW AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST AND OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN WYOMING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE BORDER OF MINNESOTA WHILE THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY. LOWS WILL MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
Higher low-level moisture will also advect in from the south southwest where dewpoints are currently in upper 60s to lower 70s, and although mixing could eliminate a few degrees from those readings by afternoon, the afternoon will certainly feel a bit stickier than the last several days as heat indices climb into the lower 90s. The thermal ridge strengthens directly over southern IA into the northern CWA during the morning hours, likely ending any ongoing precipitation shortly after sunrise.
High pressure to our east and ridging aloft will keep our weather quiet this period.
Warmer conditions this afternoon should extend to Thursday for much of the forecast area. Temperatures will be at least a category cooler over the far western counties on Thursday with a weakening of the surface downslope, however temperatures across south central Kansas may be even warmer, easily reaching the middle 90s or higher ahead of the developing thermal discontinuity.
WAS WARMER WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES IN 70S.
250 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2015 A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER CALIFORNIA AS LINGERING CLOUDS WERE STILL SEEN OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTING THURSDAY, REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND. LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT ONGOING WILDFIRES TODAY, BUT CONTINUE TO THINK THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE BIGGER FACTORS FOR THE SHORT TERM. DRIER WEATHER AND NORTH WINDS WILL CHANGE THINGS RATHER QUICKLY, THOUGH AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO SPREAD IN.
214 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2015 BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SWITCH THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TO EASTERLY AND SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF TOMORROW/S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LANDS.
WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. STABLE/DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN NORTH AMERICA UPPER RIDGE.
357 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED DESPITE SOME SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ALBEIT WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. WITH THE RIDGE MAINTAINING A GENERAL EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER LAND AREAS ON THE WEAK SIDE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE LESS FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
Troughing in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic states has southerly flow firmly entrenched over the region. Temperatures this morning are similar to yesterday morning, ranging from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid/upper 60s near the MO/KS along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS THIS MORNING AND WEAK WAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END. COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
308 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2015 MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE FROM AN UPPER TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST.
Both the NAM and GFS show the area will continue to have neutral or subsident vertical motion even though the upper level ridge will begin to shift to the south tonight. Mid level trough currently over the central high plains will stay north of the area tonight, and any low level moisture convergence will not have enough moisture to work with to produce any measurable rainfall.
WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRONG LATE SUMMER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF RAIN. SNOW WILL BE FLYING ACROSS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE TO START THIS PERIOD AND POSSIBLY DROP TO THE WESTERN VALLEY FLOORS FOR A FEW HOURS AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHERE FORCING IS BEST AND WHERE FAVORABLE NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE BIGHORNS.
319 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
333 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
306 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
133 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. ACCORDING TO ALL THE MAJOR MODELS THIS LOW WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN OUR PREVIOUS LOW. THE LOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
1245 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 252 AM CDT STRONG RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER. THEN THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ADDED AS THE THERMAL RIDGE INCHES CLOSER. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO TO OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL HELP TO MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
145 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2015 PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
The low clouds will burn off by late Thursday morning and return to VFR across the area. Forecast lows are a degree or two warmer than what we experienced this morning, with lower 70s anticipated across west central TX. Morning clouds will give way to partly cloudy conditions Thursday afternoon with temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s.
314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 The overall pattern remains the same as yesterday so expecting continued high pressure to the east and low pressure trough to the west, giving the CWA southerly winds and above normal temps. Skies should be mostly clear tonight with temps only falling into the 60s most of the area; which is warmer than normal.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EAST WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME STRONGER TOMORROW AND END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
WHILE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL U.
250 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH SOME MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLAT RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE WEST COAST. MORNING LOWS WILL BE CHILLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH 30/40S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY AND SMOKE PRODUCTION, BUT THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST.
THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
The low clouds will hang around through the mid to late morning hours before scattering out. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.
The ridge aloft will be suppressed a bit Thursday night, and this may allow some convection to drift off of the cold front and possibly down to the I-64 corridor.
126 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET AND WARM THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
230 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS SEEN ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS WHY MOST OF THE AREA IS SEEING NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A LEE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEEN LIMITED TODAY AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING EACH DAY.
TONIGHT SE MICHIGAN STILL FIRMLY POSITIONED WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE GRIP OF UPPER RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MINOR INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOCALLY TONIGHT AS A LOWER AMPITUDE RIDGE ARRIVES WILL SIMPLY REINFORCE THE EXISTING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS LARGELY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.