Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging to the west will become more predominant today as the upper level long wave trough shifts slightly east. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer on Tuesday as the ridge builds in from the west. With elevated humidity and the warmer temps Tues, heat indices will briefly reach 105 to 109 Tue afternoon.
551 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 An upper level system will move across the area today in tandem with a cold front and will bring showers and a few thunderstorms.
As the high exits to the east on Tuesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will move into central SD in the afternoon.
Then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week with fair weather and comfortable temperatures. A sharp upper trough axis extends south from a closed 500 mb low centered north of Lake Huron with vort lobes rotating through across Lower Michigan today into Tuesday.
/issued 349 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The mid-level trough that generated convection over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this past weekend will ease towards the east during the forecast period. Simultaneously, 500 mb high pressure centered just off the southern California coast will gradually build farther east in the wake of the mid-level trough.
An upper trough and a passing weak front are likely to bring a few showers/storms to the area this afternoon.
Late tonight into early tomorrow morning, thetae ridge axis will continue to shift eastward and decent WAA will develop from 09-15Z near I-35.
TFJ Upper ridge over eastern Montana with trof pushing through southern BC. Lee trof strengthening in central Montana with fairly strong low level jet into eastern Montana.
1233 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Cooler temperatures return today, as a weak boundary lingers across southern Illinois.
1159 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Synopsis: A persistent upper ridge over the Intermountain West was flanked by upper troughs over the MS Valley and Pacific Northwest. Short range models/ensembles indicate little change in the synoptic pattern with the upper ridge and surface front making slow eastward progress through Tuesday. The Pacific trough will track east across MT this afternoon and tonight, flattening the upper ridge. The axis of better instability and shear will shift east into the high plains east of I-25 Tuesday afternoon.
A broad high pressure ridge is building over the Plains From the Dakotas south into OK, and Tropical Storm Isaias is moving up the east coast of the CONUS. Although cooler and drier air is filtering into the region, mid and low level moisture is still enough for the development of a cu field by mid morning.
These conditions were mainly due to cyclonic flow aloft from an upper low rotating over the Great Lakes. Abundant low level moisture as noted on our 18z special sounding and temperatures in the low 70s, has allowed an expansive stratocu deck of clouds to develop this afternoon. I did maintain slight chance wording from previous shift for a late afternoon shower across our far eastern counties in IL, as the longwave trough moves through. Light north winds and clearing will occur overnight tonight, with lows dropping into the lower 50s. pleasant conditions are expected with Canadian high pressure moving into the area. After a cold start, afternoon high temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 70s. Expect lows to drop into the lower to middle 50s.
A ill-defined cold front was analyzed from Paducah, Kentucky extending southwest through Memphis, Tennessee. /issued 457 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/ Below normal temps remain on track through mid/late week, influenced by an upper level trof over the eastern third of U. A rather-ill defined surface cold front will pass through at least the I-40 corridor during the afternoon.
The upper-level trough will slowly travel eastward with ridging associated with a mid-level high over West Texas coming in from the west to replace.
1148 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary frontal boundary still west and southwest of the area, with high pressure centered over eastern ND. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis centered over the northern Rockies, with a trough along the Pacific NW coast. Skies are clear to partly cloudy with temps mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s, cooler over the higher Black Hills and some valley locations on the plains. Today will be a bit warmer than yesterday, but still near to slightly below average, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.
1033 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Cooler temperatures return today, as a weak boundary lingers across southern Illinois.
Breezy winds of 10 to 20 mph will remain through around sunset due to the passage of a weak cold front. High pressure is expected to rebound on Tuesday leading to average temperatures and dry conditions.
1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure and northwest flow dominate the next 3 days bringing unseasonably cool but welcome conditions for the area.
350 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure is expected to move into the region, leading to a quiet short term.
221 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure will gradually shift east tonight, with return flow setting up this evening.
318 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 H5 analysis from this morning continues to show high pressure over the SW CONUS. A high amplitude ridge extended north northeast of this feature into north central Canada. Further east, a trough of low pressure extended from northern Quebec, south southwest into southern Louisiana. East of the trough, high pressure was anchored over Bermuda with Isaias located just east of Jacksonville Florida. At the surface, high pressure was located over eastern South Dakota. The models hint at some development along the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado later tonight.
On a larger scale, an upper ridge remains centered over SE AZ, and extends north thru the Rockies into Canada. This will nudge the ridge into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in widespread triple digits returning to the area beginning Tue afternoon.
The strong high pressure aloft over the Interior West will bring another day of hot and dry conditions today. A weather disturbance moving east across the northern Rockies tonight will bring a dry cold front to the area and drop temperatures back to more seasonal levels Tuesday. An elongated mid level ridge axis remains situated along the US/Mexico border region, keeping monsoonal moisture suppressed well south across the lower desert of Arizona, while maintaining a hot and dry airmass across the forecast area.
HRRR and NAMNest this morning both spreading some showers/ts this afternoon with the upper level trough still in place.
358 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 A cold front will slowly move east across the area tonight, as low pressure moves east across the lower Great Lakes. The low will move northeast of the region Tuesday, bringing a trough east across the area.
437 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 An upper trough will advance through the eastern states as Tropical Storm Isaias ejects northeast along the eastern Seaboard. Highs both today and Tuesday should be in the lower to mid 90s, with lows around 75-80, except a few degrees warmer along the Atlantic coast. The overall pattern keeps a 500mb trough over the eastern United States, although a 500mb ridge does build over the western Atlantic and looks to undercut the trough, allowing some 500mb height rises over South Florida for the latter half of the week.
Most of this activity has been in response to deep synoptic scale lift in association with deep mid-upper level troughing across the eastern US. Slightly cooler mid level temperatures spreading across a warm boundary layer will increase lapse rates and yield CAPE values in excess of 1500-2000 j/kg by the afternoon. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 89 67 91 68 / 30 30 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 87 66 89 66 / 40 40 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 86 65 88 65 / 40 40 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 84 62 85 63 / 40 50 40 40 30.
The first of several surges of cold air is making its way south across the forecast area at this time, but will slow or stall across the higher terrain later tonight.
A much drier airmass will move into the region behind the exiting low pressure system that brought rainy conditions the past few days. Despite the passage of a cold front this morning, max temps will be on the order of 5 to 10 degrees warmer than what we saw on Saturday. Lows tonight will range from around 40 north to the lower and mid 50s south.
Dry and warmer than normal conditions will continue through the coming work week. Tranquil weather will continue into the early part of the week with temperatures running 6 to 9 degrees warmer than average for early February.
1004 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 The snow showers from last night and early this morning have all but diminished this afternoon aside from the highest peaks of the Elkhead and Park ranges where very light snow continues. Most snow will taper off Sunday morning with only leftover snow showers and flurries lingering in the highest elevations along the northern Continental Divide through Sunday afternoon. When all is said and done, 4 to 8 inches of total snowfall accumulation will be common with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches possible in the highest peaks. Elsewhere, mild westerly flow aloft will usher in a warmer air mass with temperatures climbing several degrees above normal.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 29 56 42 60 / 20 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 26 51 36 55 / 50 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 43 26 52 37 55 / 40 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 22 50 32 51 / 60 0 0 10 20 NC.
Mostly clear skies overnight and diminishing winds will allow for radiational cooling and expect low temperatures near or just above freezing.
With the movement of the low, the rain will move out of the area as well. Meanwhile across us, a cold front will shift east through the forecast area late tonight. This will cause slightly cooler drier air to advect into the region, as high pressure likewise builds south into the forecast area on Sunday.
A number of disturbances will bring periods of light snow to the area during the upcoming week as they track along the strong baroclinic zone in place south of the arctic high pressure over Canada. The reinforcing shot of arctic air that sweeps into the area behind this wave will hold the high temperatures in the teens (lower teens at that over the northern half of the forecast area). Surface ridging will work east into the area tonight and allow for diminishing winds.
Radar imagery this evening shows light rain has spread across the southwestern half of the forecast area, with reports of flurries in the higher elevations on the leading edge of the precip. On the Plateau where temperatures are already in the mid to upper 30s and surface wet bulb temps are near freezing, precip will likely begin as snow this evening and remain such through the event. Passage of a cold front overnight will usher in north winds around 10KT to all sites.
A cooler and more unsettled pattern will develop to begin the work week. With strong winds on exposed higher ridgelines and also in the higher valleys such as southwest Wyoming, blowing snow will be a possibility. The strong winds are expected to remain along the higher ridgelines and adjacent downslope valleys, but most downslope areas such as far northwest Utah and Castle Country are not expected to see breaking waves or the winds surface as strongly as last night.
Temperatures on Sunday will be about the same as today, in the upper 40s to low 50s in the lower valleys.
At this time, little accumulation is expected with the highest amounts around a half inch to an inch.
1259 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
300 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 A fast moving area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania early today, bringing a light snowfall to most of central Pa.
348 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure builds in behind low pressure pushing off to the northeast today, allowing for drying conditions with gusty winds.
114 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 Weak low pressure developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico will track northeast tonight and off the South Carolina coast Sunday.
As expected lower ceilings scattered out as a weak surface cold front move through the terminals leaving behind VFR conditions. /issued 1024 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ Cooler air settling in but counteracted further north due to the cloud cover. There will likely be some shower activity over central Louisiana and the lower Acadiana area through late afternoon. A cold front is moving into east Texas and is forecasted to move through the region this evening.
With our flow expected to persist from the northwest aloft, thinking we will only see some of this drier and cooler air seep into our neck of the woods in the next 24 hours with the main impacts being a subtle lowering of snow levels back to 2000 feet. We continue to see gusty winds in the foothills of the Blue Mountains along the Highway 12 corridor between Lewiston and Starbuck with gusts around 40 mph but these should be decreasing in the next 1-2 hours closer to 30 mph and look to blow into the night.
In the meantime, mostly clear skies early on this morning will give way to increasing clouds as another weak mid-level trough of low pressure ripples through the Northern Rockies into the Plains and then across IA into IL.
1024 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 Broad upper trough spans coast to coast across the Lower 48 with its center axis from the Upper Midwest to the southern Great Plains. Forecast challenges during the short term will be snow accumulations with the next short wave trough and strong winds impacting portions of south-central and southeast WY. The aforementioned short wave trough will move southeast along the arctic boundary tonight and Sunday morning. With the arctic front retreating slowly east into the high plains during the next 12 to 18 hours, strong westerly surface winds will become more prevalent, with a belt of 50-60 kt 700mb winds spreading east along the I-80 corridor from early this evening through Sunday.
1024 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Cooler air settling in but counteracted further north due to the cloud cover. A weak surface cold front will be moving across the forecast area this evening. There will likely be some shower activity over central Louisiana and the lower Acadiana area through late afternoon. A cold front is moving into east Texas and is forecasted to move through the region this evening.
Another round of strong to severe storms expected across the area overnight as a cold front moves south into central Florida. Scaled back the PoPs for tonight, as model guidance is trending slower for the passage of the cold front,bringing the severe threat more into late tonight and into tomorrow. Overnight temperatures will reach in the low 60s across the north and mid to upper 60s across the south with extreme southeast Martin forecast to reach 70 degrees tonight. The stalled front is across northern Lake and northern Volusia counties, with a cold front expected to move southward into central Florida late tonight and into tomorrow. Another round of strong to severe storms is expected to cross the area overnight as a cold front moves southward, first affecting the northern terminals, and then spreading to the southern terminal throughout the day.
351 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure builds in behind low pressure pushing off to the northeast today, allowing for drying conditions with gusty winds.
1014 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 Large, broad trough is sitting across much of the CONUS, with arctic air over the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
1258 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 Snow showers will cross the region today, with the passage of a cold front. Problematic accumulation will be confined to the West Virginia ridges. A cold front, with limited moisture and weak upper level support, will quickly cross the region today. The highest accumulations are anticipated over the ridges. The heavier snowfall will be due to crossing low pressure over the Mid- Atlantic. This low will advect deeper moisture into southeast locales, thus increasing snow fall totals.
355 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 Snow showers will cross the region today, with the passage of a cold front. Problematic accumulation will be confined to the West Virginia ridges. A cold front, with limited moisture and weak upper level support, will quickly cross the region today. The highest accumulations are anticipated over the ridges. The heavier snowfall will be due to crossing low pressure over the Mid- Atlantic. This low will advect deeper moisture into southeast locales, thus increasing snow fall totals.
1043 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Broad longwave troughing will span the length of the CONUS through the short term as a disturbance tracks to our south this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the Midwest underneath subsidence aloft. High pressure will be centered over the CWA on Sunday with another disturbance expected to pass to our south. Broad longwave troughing is expected to remain centered across the northern CONUS through most of the forecast period as embedded short waves move through the main flow.
311 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 Weak low pressure along the coast this morning will move northeast and deepen off the Mid Atlantic coast.
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 At the present, conditions vary across a cold front stretched across the I-44 corridor. South of the front, temperatures are in the low to mid 40s with some light rain falling. Light freezing drizzle will be possible Sunday night, with potential for that to mix with or change to snow depending on moisture/temperature profiles.
210 AM PST Sun Feb 7 2021 Areas of dense fog along the Coast will dissipate late this morning, leaving fair skies and cooler weather, especially over coastal areas.
As for lows tonight, did trend to the lower guidance on temperatures with widespread lows around 0 degrees to a few degrees below zero.
Its southern edge was marked by a cold front that was nearly stationary across Texas. South to southwest flow aloft is expected to push moisture and warmer air over the colder air near the surface. This will generate clouds and possibly a little freezing drizzle this morning. However, after midnight tonight, strong isentropic lift ahead of a mid-level wave and the slowly retreating warm front (the cold front retreating back north from Texas) will likely generate freezing drizzle or light freezing rain over northern Oklahoma.
Cooler temperatures and increasing clouds are expected starting Monday, although dry conditions will likely continue through the middle of the week.
Models suggest that clouds will thicken over the region tonight as a broad upper trough moves into the region.
Heavier bands of snow are expected to remain north of the MO River with the highest accumulations in far NW MO near the IA border. Precipitation may enhance saturation of the lower levels which could drag CIGs into IFR range.
418 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 Low pressure will move away from the North Carolina coast today with high pressure building south into the region tonight and Monday.
642 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure builds in behind low pressure pushing off to the northeast today, allowing for drying conditions with gusty winds.
Sometime mid week the core of the arctic mass near the mentioned upper level low may rotate into the region.
The shallow cold airmass has sagged through much of the region, although in typical fashion it has hung up across the higher terrain of southeast OK into western AR. Forecast soundings/HREF are supportive of areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle/flurries across parts of northeast OK into far northwest AR, with some light glazing possible before surface temperatures gradually warm above freezing. May also see some areas of light freezing drizzle for parts of far northeast OK/northwest AR.
There are some indications it may make it as far east as Bismarck, although the higher confidence still remains in the southwest. Light winds have held off some more extreme values, although these are still life threatening wind chills and will continue the highlights as is. Sometime mid week the core of the arctic mass near the mentioned upper level low may rotate into the region.
A much drier airmass will move into the region behind the exiting low pressure system that brought rainy conditions the past few days.
Surface pressure gradient will also increase as a low pressure develops over north TX; therefore, a breezy day is expected.
Have increased pops mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area and included a chance for freezing drizzle along with the light snow and flurries. Areas of freezing fog could also develop overnight. Several days of sub freezing high temperatures are in store for southwest Kansas as an Arctic airmass remains entrenched across the region.
Orographically driven snow may still produce a few inches along the highest peaks, but shower activity will dwindle this morning as the polar jet shifts northward.
First, the center of high pressure will establish itself over the region, and this will cause winds to become much lighter. This could result in air temperatures being cooler tonight than they are this morning, but also slightly lesser wind chill values. Very gradually moderating temperatures are expected going into mid- week as flow becomes a bit more westerly and eventually southwesterly, but even so, the bitterly cold air mass associated with a broad closed upper level trough will continue cycling cold air into the region.
While a broad trough over the north-central US continues to allow very cold temperatures to dive south through the Heartland, an upper level ridge (corrected prev. For today, early morning temperatures will continue to cool beneath mostly clear skies before settling in the low to mid 40s across the lower desert by sunrise. Although deterministic and ensemble guidance all flatten the aforementioned ridge the next few days, guidance shows relatively little change in atmospheric thickness across the Southwest.
410 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 A fast moving area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania early today, bringing a light snowfall to most of central Pa.
Drier air moving into the area under a weak high pressure. First, a warm front is expected to move north over the area and stall becoming a stationary front.
726 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 Low pressure will move away from the North Carolina coast today with high pressure building south into the region tonight and Monday.
SCEC over the northern offshore waters, with a marine dense fog advisory over the northern and central coastal waters this morning as a line of convection moves through the central and later the southern waters ahead of a cold front.
532 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021 12Z TAF Cycle IFR to VLIFR conditions at the Guymon TAF site until around 15Z to 17Z today and then VFR conditions until after 06Z to 08Z Monday when IFR to VLIFR conditions return in low cloudiness and freezing drizzle and freezing fog. Today through Monday night Low cloudiness, freezing fog and patchy light freezing drizzle along and east of the Caprock this morning will lift by mid to late morning with the low clouds eroding from west to east by this afternoon. Low cloudiness, freezing fog and freezing drizzle will again develop after 06Z Monday mainly across the northeastern half of the Panhandles until around 15Z Monday or so.
Meanwhile, temperatures reach the low teens to low 20s. It is possible that parts of east central KS could see some freezing drizzle with a loss of cloud ice; however, some forecast soundings show low-level temps (900-925mb) dropping below -12C, so confidence in this potential is low at the present time, but it is worth noting for now.