Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
244 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Large scale lift will increase tonight in response to a mid/upper level trough that will lift out over the northern and central plains. The main concern tomorrow will be the threat of severe weather as the main trough pushes a cold front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening. A strong mid level jet will round the base of the trough causing deep layer shear to reach 45 kt.
400 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Dry and warmer than normal weather is expected in the short term portion of the forecast, as a ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across the eastern third of the CONUS. They all start off in good agreement with the upper level low associated with Hurricane Matthew and a deep trough sliding east along the international border of the Northern Plains. However, by the end of the week they start to diverge with the ECMWF slower to move Matthew north and less aggressive with its Northern Plains trough.
The low pressure system is tracking across southern Idaho into central Montana. The models are indicating a band of precipitation developing along the Continental Divide due to a disturbance being stretched between to low pressure systems. This band could put down additional snow in the higher terrain, especially across Glacier park.
223 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure through mid week. Upper trough and an associated cold front push across the area this upcoming weekend. Models indicate an upper ridge will develop across the area late tonight and remain in place through Tuesday. High pressure.
227 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 An upper level low pressure system will finish slowly moving through the region today, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Low pressure system still exiting the Great Basin this evening. Unsettled weather will remain for the northern portions of Nevada as multiple trough intrude into the state through midweek.
Moisture pooling over the area from washed out front combined with upper trough over the eastern Gulf will produce scattered to numerous showers/storms again Tuesday. Pops will be higher over ne Fl Tuesday as high pressure builds down the east coast pushing a ne wind surge into ne Fl by afternoon. Strong and persistent NE flow expected locally between Hurricane Matthew progged to be moving northward toward the Bahamas late Tue/early Wed and a stubborn high pressure wedge extending down the lee of the Appalachians over north Ga.
310 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Gusty southeast winds and warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates an upper- level trough digging into the Great Basin, with 500mb height falls up to around 150m centered in UT. Downstream ridge axis extended from the Great lakes into the mid-MS River basin, and also from central NE southward through KS/western OK/central TX. Upper-level jet around the base of the trough was noted with speeds up to 90kt behind the trough and 90-95kt ahead.
Models still indicate the upper level low. The main forecast concern will continue to be strong winds as the upper level low tracks just north and west of the forecast area in the afternoon. The High Wind Warning looks good beginning this morning. The High Wind Warning for Carbon county looks good. it will be noticeably cooler with a large range of temperatures across the forecast area. Temperatures during the day may be as warm as 70 across the lower elevations of the Nebraska panhandle. Downslope winds may modify temperatures enough for highs around 60 across the high plains of southeast Wyoming. including the High Plains east of I-25. The GFS and ECMWF are in excellent agreement with broad upper-level troughing encompassing much of the western US early in the forecast period.
However, moisture is relatively limited with surface dew points in the low to mid 50s east of the dry line. Cold front will move through after midnight with winds diminishing and shifting to the northwest. Cooler and much dryer air will filter into the area on Tuesday. Skies will clear and temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s. At the start of the extended a long wave trough is expected to move out of the Pacific Northwest and deepen as it moves over the Tri- State region. This trough looks to have a strong cold front associated with it. Along and ahead of this passing trough, and associated cold front, there will be mainly rain showers with it.
However, a surface cold front, and associated upper level trough, will move into and through your area, ushering in minimal if any pcpn.
148 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure through mid week. Upper trough and an associated cold front push across the area this upcoming weekend. Models indicate an upper ridge will develop across the area late tonight and remain in place through Tuesday. Quiet weather expected through the short term with high pressure and upper level ridging in control.
236 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure through mid week. Upper trough and an associated cold front push across the area this upcoming weekend. Models indicate an upper ridge will develop across the area late tonight and remain in place through Tuesday. High pressure.
The combination of high pressure at the surface and being on the western flank of an H5 ridge should keep the region dry through Tuesday night.
217 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Water vapor imagery shows strong negatively tilted upper low/trough across the cntrl to nrn Rockies with diffluent flow across the CWA. low pressure sits across se MT into ne WY with deep srly flow mainly across the wrn SD plains. Storm activity will slide eastward a weak cold front pushes in from the east associated with the dryline as the upper low continues to the NE. Cooler and drier weather is expected Tuesday as the upper low nearly stalls across se MT. A secondary cold front will cross the CWA during the day tomorrow bringing gusty W/NW winds and highs in the 50s across ne WY/nw SD/BH.
However, moisture is relatively limited with surface dew points in the low to mid 50s east of the dry line. Cold front will move through after midnight with winds diminishing and shifting to the northwest. Cooler and much dryer air will filter into the area on Tuesday. Skies will clear and temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s. Westerly to southwesterly upper level flow is expected over the Tri- State Area behind the low that will move over the Northern Plains and ahead of the next trough that will bring cooler weather at the end of the work week. Tuesday night drier air will continue to move into the area behind the cold front that moved through Monday night.
Upper-level ridge is in the process of flattening as a deep trough moves through the Great Basin. Tuesday night's min temps will also run 4-6 degrees above normal, generally in the low-mid 70's.
321 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Windy conditions, along with thunderstorms along the nearing cold front will continue to be the main concerns through the early evening hours.
1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Strong upper level trough continues to deepen over the northern rockies this afternoon. As a strong impulse lifts around the base of the upper trough, strong to severe thunderstorm development is anticipated over the northern and central high plains. There is good model agreement that rain chances will increase today as a large area of low pressure moves across the region. The best chances are favored in the western part of the state, so will continue to carry the highest pops in that area.
Tonight the upper-level trough axis will push east of the area as low-level ridging moves eastward into New England and southward down the eastern side of the Appalachians. With the southeasterly flow lows will remain in the low 60s southeast while falling into the upper 50s northwest. The high pressure system in New England will aid in this, but also produce an easterly to northeasterly wind field and drive high temps back down to low 80s. It's only effect will be cutting off the return moisture from the cold front that will enter the forecast area this weekend.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tomorrow for TRI with an isolated shower possible -- but most showers should restricted to the higher terrain east of the airport.
Dewpoints have dropped into the lower 50s in most areas. Warmer morning lows (59 to 64 degrees) will spread west into northwestern AL Tuesday night due to southerly flow. As a broad trough extends from the west coast to the northern Plains, a ridge stretches from the southeast up the Atlantic coast.
116 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will build into the region bringing dry and warm weather for the week. upper low is making it's departure, leaving in it's wake NW flow and prevalent stratocumulus. High pressure will build overhead for Tuesday returning mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. With southerly flow returning and rising heights, temperatures will be warmer than average.
A 500mb trough, even though weak, has brought enough instability to the area to help generate showers and thunderstorms today. The 500mb temps are slightly warmer than anticipated, which has help to lower the hail risk. For tomorrow, the trough is weaker, and another trough will begin to approach the region.
This trend will continue out ahead of the main cold front/dryline moving east across the Panhandles. Throughout the day tomorrow, best chances of precipitation will be confined to the far eastern Panhandles before clearing out in the early afternoon hours as the cold front moves out of the Panhandles region by then.
9 inches) combined with daytime heating, a remnant frontal trough axis across the central peninsula and mesoscale boundary interactions will support scattered to numerous showers and storms developing over the region later this morning and into the afternoon. High pressure to the north of the Gulf waters will maintain northeast to east winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less the remainder of today.
The current water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Basin, with an upper low over the Great Lakes region. Between these two lows, a high amplitude upper ridge covers much of the central U. The possible exception will be across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, where a narrow mid-level theta-e ridge axis beneath southeasterly upslope flow could yield an isolated shower or thunderstorm tonight and Tuesday.
425 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 The upper low will continue to move away from the region tonight and high pressure will allow for dry conditions through Tuesday night.
and expect slightly milder lows given the higher dewpoints. either with dryline storms pushing east or additional activity along the warm front situated near the KS/OK border.
402 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will extend into the Carolinas from the north through mid week. Quiet weather through the near term though and approaching trough will lead to an overnight increase in cloud cover. A cool season-like wedge of high pressure to our north and east will keep the weather fairly quiet. Upper level troughiness and Atlantic moisture still lingering into Tuesday but likely only to the tune of lingering cloudiness along the coast.
236 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will build into the region bringing dry and warm weather for the week. Upper low is making it's departure, leaving in it's wake NW flow and prevalent stratocumulus. High pressure will build overhead for Tuesday returning mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. With southerly flow returning and rising heights, temperatures will be warmer than average.
The stronger winds will support warmer temperatures and have thus boosted min temperatures some.
A relatively uneventful start to the week as high pressure builds in across the region. While today's temps have been close to normal for this time of year, the influence of the returning high pressure will be felt as highs climb back into the mid 80s (5 to 10 degrees above normal) through the end of the week.
552 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Still dealing with sc deck across forecast area despite upper low well northeast of region because of lingering cyclonic flow. Byrd Upper level ridge finally begins to retreat to the east as large upper level trough moves into the area.
241 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Slightly warmer temperatures for early October will remain across the region this evening and into Tuesday as a result of winds shifting towards the south. Overnight lows will only fall into the lower 60s tonight as as result of the southerly winds.
This will allow the amplified western CONUS trough o move east the next few days. The pressure gradient increases as the high retreats and should help keep temperatures up some. Picking up the forecast Tuesday night, the main concern will continue to be the ongoing thunderstorm and heavy rain potential working along the slow moving cold front draped north to south across the center of the state.
107 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd, as high pressure at the surface remains in control of our weather pattern. /issued 1039 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016/ Upper-level ridge across the region maintaining mostly sunny skies areawide.
330 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley with a mostly erly low-level flow prevailing. Water vapor imagery indicates ridging in place from the Rio Grande Valley across the Arklatex to the cntl Plains. Regional 88Ds continue to show any convection over the nwrn Gulf in proximity to a sfc trof offshore. the associated rise in dewpoints will lead to warmer nighttime mins tonight with readings generally 3-5 degrees warmer than this morning. The storm system crossing the Rockies today will continue breaking down the cntl CONUS ridge. and the lowering heights aloft combined with the increasing moisture will allow for some convection to begin developing.
305 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will build over the northeast today and tonight and remain across the northeast through the end of the week. High pressure will continue to build down from the north tonight pushing clearing south across the area. High pressure will crest over the area late tonight bringing calm conditions. Tuesday will then feature plenty of sunshine with highs near 60 across the area as high pressure on the surface and ridging aloft builds across the region.
1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 A partly to mostly sunny and breezy to windy day still looks good for today, as a strong upper low and cold front approach from the Rockies. For tonight the continued approach and arrival of the cold front, and upper impulses southeast of the upper low, should make for decent overall coverage of showers and storms spreading fairly quickly across the area from the west. Dynamics are not as strong as they will be further west, closer to the northeastward swinging upper low. Still feel the severe weather risk is on the low end for this event.
317 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 The upper low that has been bringing the rain and clouds to the area will move into New England tonight. Tuesday will bring clearing skies as high pressure moves into the area behind the low. and the cold pool aloft under the low enhancing the instability. Nothing much to discuss this period with high pressure building over New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Attention during this period turns to resolving the behavior between a cold front moving in from the Great Lakes and Hurricane Matthew in the Western Atlantic.
The widespread stratus deck that enveloped most of the Lower Peninsula early in the day is transitioning into a fresh stratocumulus field with some embedded sprinkles / very light showers. Consequently, the low-clouds and fog should not persist as deep into the day as witnessed today.
141 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 A large upper level low will lose it's grip on our weather as it moves into New England today. Have reissued an SPS for Hardin, Mercer, Auglaize, Logan, Union (OH), Delaware, Franklin (OH), and Licking counties to account for the low clouds/ patchy dense fog across the north. 12z KILN sounding) and high pressure moving in. Prev Discussion-> Upper low over the eastern Great Lakes to move into New England this afternoon. Highs to range from around 70 north to the lower/middle 70s south. The ridge axis slides a little east Tuesday with a southerly flow developing. Amplified upper air pattern will keep weather systems moving slow with broad trof developing over the western US.
The upper low currently over WY will lift north and eastward towawrds western ND tonight and tomorrow. Given the current track of convection over western ND is nearly due north, think the best chances will be later tonight as the low pressure system gets a bit closer and 850mb warm air advection picks up.
Tonight as the low center lifts north winds will become northwest and continue to gust. While abundant precipitation amounts are likely tonight, it may take most of the night to see temperatures fall to the low 30s. Will highlight 1 to 2 inches of slushy accumulations and up to 5 inches in the highest elevations.
Some Hi-Res models are producing isolated precip activity Tuesday afternoon, but given the low pop model guidance, have opted not to include any at this time.
High pressure along the NE seaboard is advertised to build south across the Mid atlc coast through mid-week in advance of approaching major Hurricane Matthew.
218 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 A weakening upper low over New York state will move east to the Southern New England coast by Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania behind this system, and will likely remain over the area through the end of the work week, bringing mainly dry and slightly milder conditions across Central Pennsylvania. The upper low near BGM will continue crawling off to the east to be off the southern New England coast by early Tuesday. High temps ranging from the U60s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower and mid 70s across the southern valleys will be several deg F or more above normal.
247 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Weak upper level ridging continues to dominate much of the Midwest with an upper low spinning over the Rockies. Southeasterly winds should remain up a bit overnight, ushering in warmer air and moisture. The area that may see the exception is along and south of I-70 where the winds are lighter closer to the ridge axis. Tomorrow is a similar day, with max temps a few degrees warmer, and the cu field developing before mid day. A longwave trough developing over the western half of the U. This feature looks to primarily affect northwestern Illinois and have the highest chance of precipitation (30-40 percent) from near I-55 northwestward.
311 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016 The upper low was located over central WY this aftn with a strong southwesterly flow aloft over the cwa. A cold front associated with this system is making its way south and east across the urban corridor and northeast plains and should move through the Denver area around 22-23Z time frame. In the high country. Mid and upper level mdt QG descent tonight behind the trough. The flow aloft will transition from southwesterly this evening to west/northwesterly late tonight and Tuesday with an upper level ridge allowing for dry and stable conditions for most of the area.
337 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 Currently - The Florida Keys are situated between a large high pressure system over the eastern United States and Hurricane Matthew, moving slowly northward through the central Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, a upper level trough extends down the Mississippi Valley and through the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast - The combination of a moist and unstable environment, a lower level flow becoming cyclonic, and an upper level trough lingering to our west justifies maintaining high chance pops through the next couple of days.
Soundings indicate an erosion of the inversion this evening with drying occurring in the lower levels. Therefore a dissipation in the low clouds is expected later this evening with shorter term models agreeing. As the night progresses, system across the Rockies will approach with warm advection increasing as thermal ridge slides toward the state.
/Issued 1037 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2016/ Morning water vapor imagery shows upper trough digging west of us across the Great Basin. Lee trough over eastern NM will intensify this afternoon. while upper ridge builds across the plains and southerly winds increase.
as a strong pressure gradient remains in place across the region thanks to a deepening low pressure system on the lee side of the Rockies. forcing the low level trough and associated frontal boundary across the region. with the best chance for any convective/severe activity only across the western most portion of the forecast area as the high plains convection may hold onto its intensity just long enough to affect areas primarily west of highway 183. Southwesterly flow aloft and a cooler airmass will be in place to start the extended periods.
309 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast while a storm system was organizing in the Rockies. Dew points were in the 50s from the Great Lakes and Plain with 60s in the lower Mississippi Valley. However, it does appear that Tuesday will be warmer.
314 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Central Great Basin area is progged to lift northeast into the Northern Plains later today and into Tuesday. A trailing cold front will become a focus for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The higher probabilities are expected to remain across central KS where a few strong storms with nickel sized hail will be possible during the predawn hours.
Latest surface analysis showed high pressure encompassing much of the Great Lakes region and lower Ohio Valley with mid afternoon readings in the 70s. Plan on mostly to partly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s.
Water vapor imagery is currently showing the large upper low is now located over central Wyoming. As the upper low moves into northeast Montana tonight into Tuesday, there will be a short period of favorable unsettled northwest flow to bring accumulating snow to this location. As the lows move east, pressure gradients will tighten across eastern Montana resulting in a windy day Tuesday.
131 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the upper lakes will slowly shift east across the area tonight and tuesday then into new england for the rest of the work week.
300 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Dry and warmer than normal weather is expected in the short term portion of the forecast, as a ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across the eastern third of the CONUS.
312 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will drift east into the eastern states the next couple of days allowing warmer air to move into the region.
235 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Still dealing with sc deck across forecast area despite upper low well northeast of region because of lingering cyclonic flow. Byrd Upper level ridge finally begins to retreat to the east as large upper level trough moves into the area.
Cooler and drier air behind an exiting low pressure system north of Arizona has settled into the Desert Southwest.
234 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will gradually build atop the region this week.
Upper ridge aloft also tends to flatten out some tomorrow.
/issued 1045 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2016/ Combo of ridging aloft and a drier airmass has led to a clear and rain-free morning across the forecast area. and expect all convection to remain over the Gulf in proximity to lingering sfc trof. Satellite/surface obs showing clear skies this morning in the wake of mid/upper level trof advancing east of the region. Early morning clouds yesterday with aforementioned trof kept morning lows several degrees above that of this morning under clear skies. Anticipating a dry and pleasant day as dewpoints continue to remain on the low side. Afternoon highs will continue above the norm but overnight lows will be significantly warmer.