Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Gusty north winds are expected down the lower Colorado River Valley today, notably for Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu.
604 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes today will weaken and shift east Tuesday.
1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A closed upper low was located in northeast Utah this afternoon. The cold front is now east of the forecast area. As the upper low lifts into central Wyoming overnight, two distinct disturbance will move through the forecast area. On Monday, The upper trough will lift into the western Dakotas and Nebraska panhandle. The upper trough axis will swing across western Nebraska Monday night, providing one last shot for showers. The highest chance will be in the evening from near 60 percent east of Broken Bow through Atkinson, and 30 to 50 percent to the west.
102 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Aviation High pressure will continue to control our weather for the next few days. Cooler weather will arrive mid week after a strong cold front moves through. We'll be well into the 90s Monday with high pressure both at the surface and aloft. The ridge finally begins to move east Tuesday, but hot temperatures in upper 80s are still anticipated with records within a degree or two. The best chance of rain will be late Tuesday as a strong cold front moves through.
The Four State Region remains between a large upper trough over the Rockies and a high-over-low block over the Eastern CONUS. The weak upper low in the Eastern block is over Southern Mississippi/Southeast Louisiana. Unfortunately, this low is not expected to provide much enhancement to any diurnal sea breeze convection. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain in the low 90s.
Other than fog, good flight conditions expected through the period at all sites with high pressure remaining in control.
Meanwhile the main upper level trough was over the US Rockies with the low center over western Wyoming. These energy impulses continue during the daytime Monday as the upper low lifts northeast into eastern Montana this afternoon, and the western Dakotas Monday night. WV imagery shows deep upper trough centered over northern Utah with good fetch of moisture continuing to stream northward into the central and eastern Dakotas. Increased pops across southwest and central ND on Monday as upper level trough across the west lifts east/northeastward with trough axis across eastern Montana by 00z Tuesday. Continued low pops into Tuesday morning as trough lifts east of the Dakotas by 00z Wed, while upper level ridge develops across the western CONUS, putting the Northern Plains in northwest flow by Tuesday night.
A strengthening upper ridge and developing low level offshore flow will bring sunshine and warmer weather by mid week. Should also see cooler temps today. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures Tuesday provides W WA with a day of transition as clouds will likely still linger. As the ridge continues to intensify. Helping this warm-up will be a growing thermal pressure trough entering into the area Wed and hanging around into Thurs.
318 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather into mid week. This seems to be upper level moisture feeding off of Maria that is being sandwiched between the ridge dominating just to our northeast and a weak upper low along the Gulf of Mexico coast.
348 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Main forecast issues will be how long to keep the rain chances going and temperatures, especially the lows. Slow moving cold front looks like it has finally cleared the forecast area.
240 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 The overall pattern that has kept the Central High Plains region wet over the weekend will begin to shift eastward by late Monday as the upper low over the Great Basin begins to lift out across the Rockies and into the northern high plains. High temperatures on Monday should remain in the 50s while the overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to middle 50s.
452 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 (Today and Tonight) A deep upper trough currently extends across the Rockies early this morning, with an embedded closed low situated over Wyoming. This low is progged to break away from the main upper trough and lift northeast into the northern Plains by early Tuesday morning, while energy on the back side of the trough closes off a second low over the Great Basin on Tuesday. In the low levels, southeast flow is transporting rich Gulf Moisture across the area. Regional radar imagery shows convection developing across the low rolling Plains and the Permian Basin early this morning.
140 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. On Monday H5 ridge weakens from the south, due to the presence of Hurricane Maria. The ridge, although weaker, will hold again Monday night. Lows will be a little warmer, ranging from 60 to 65.
415 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 The cold front has now progressed into northwest Wisconsin this morning, having moved slowly across northern Minnesota in the last 24 hours. This is going to bring much more fall like weather to the area, and high temperatures today will be significantly cooler than what we had over the weekeend, in some cases by as much as 20 degrees cooler.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level low centered near the UT-WY border, with upper-level ridging dominating the eastern half of the CONUS (along with Maria centered well off the coast of the Carolinas). A 110kt upper-level jet streak was noted ahead of the trough from western NE into the central Dakotas. An 850mb high was centered around Lake Erie, with an ill-defined trough from around western ON toward CO/NM.
However, chances are on the low side, giving too much uncertainty to include in the TAFs attm. /issued 411 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Low pressure remains aloft over the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Maria continues northward to the east of the Bahamas. Later in the week, Maria will continue her path northward and a trough extending into the South Florida will bring some additional moisture and increasing rain chances.
410 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A Large upper level low pressure system is currently spinning across the western half of the nation and is centered across western Wyoming this morning. Diffluent flow aloft ahead of this low and the right rear quadrant of an upper jet across New Mexico will combine with a moist and unstable atmosphere to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today and tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Beyond today unsettled weather is expected to continue through the work week due to a couple of large and deep upper level low pressure systems residing across the western states.
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes today will weaken and shift east Tuesday.
521 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Warm high pressure remains over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross northern Maine Tuesday then stall.
The longstanding upper ridge continues across the eastern half of the country today. This feature will drift north today in the highly amplified pattern, and patches of high/mid cloud with it as well as some more cumulus will be seen. Temperatures early this morning are running about 1-3 degrees cooler than previous mornings thanks to lower dew points and 850-925mb temperatures down about 1C in 24 hours.
411 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a strong 500 mb ridge over the ern U. The trough will move into the northern and central plains 00z Tue while the ridge moves to New England and the lower Great Lakes. An associated north-south oriented cold front will begin to quick shift east through Upper Michigan through the day Tuesday ahead of the approaching deep trough from the west. A continued very moist environment ahead of the cold front will allow for at least some heavy downpours at times; however, rainfall totals are not expected to be too impressive across the area as the cold front is expected to shift east fairly quickly.
1155 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The closed low over northern Utah will eject northeast across Wyoming on Monday and onto the Northern Plains by Monday night. A ridge of high pressure will be anchored over the western US through most of the workweek. However, a closed low will drop into the southern Great Basin on Tuesday with an increasing southerly moist flow developing over the forecast area associated with this system.
134 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to pop up this afternoon ahead of the cold front over the eastern Dakotas, where boundary layer heating has resulted in 3-hour MLCAPE increases of 100-200 J/kg over western Minnesota. In the big picture, the western upper trough will lift northeast and work its way across our area through midweek. Ridging will re-build across the west during that time, with northwest flow setting up over our area for the second half of the week. The western ridge will then flatten as it shifts east toward our area over the upcoming weekend.
Warmer and drier conditions will develop today and continue into midweek. Another upper low will develop over western Arizona tomorrow. This low will lift north and impact much of southern and eastern Utah during the latter half of the week.
349 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. Another warm day is expected this afternoon with mid-level ridging slowly pulling east allowing 500 mb heights to slowly fall.
Forecast remains relatively unchanged as high pressure generally centered just east of the Great Lakes Region remains in control.
517 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather into mid week. This seems to be upper level moisture feeding off of Maria that is being sandwiched between the ridge dominating just to our northeast and a weak upper low along the Gulf of Mexico coast.
314 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper low continues to fill as it moves northeast into central portions of Wyoming. Associated cold front was from southwest Kansas to northeast Nebraska early this morning with temps ranging from 55 at NRN to 73 at SLN. Precipition should generally increase in coverage from northwest to southeast through tonight as the cold front pushes on through, but should see at least isolated activity ahead of it in weak but deep mid-level isentropic upglide.
A ridge of high pressure along the west coast is gradually getting stronger leading to a slow warming trend. Aside from some freezing fog near Truckee and the Sierra Valley, benign conditions remain on tap for the near future as high pressure continues to build along the California coast. The warming trend increases more rapidly starting Tuesday afternoon as generally light northerly winds shift more easterly due to an inland shift of the ridge axis.
150 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast.
336 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A cool and wet day in store for much of the area today, persisting into tonight, as remain situated between slow-moving upper trough over the Rockies, and strong upper ridge east of the Mississippi. Although a bit slower than previous runs, still seeing a good punch of mid-upper level drying move into the forecast area as the upper trough shifts east late tonight. This along with broad downglide on the isentropic surfaces and weak cold advection in the lower levels, should bring a gradual decrease in precipitation through the late night hours. The broad upper trough slides eastward through the Great Lakes through the mid-late week period, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS.
Upper level low over southwest Wyoming will drift northeastward today, crossing into the Dakotas by Tuesday. Upper trof axis shifts east tonight with warming and drying trend expected into Tuesday.
130 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather into mid week. Cirrus is starting to advance from the south, which seems to be upper level moisture feeding off of Maria that is being sandwiched between the ridge dominating just to our northeast and a weak upper low along the Gulf of Mexico coast.
The low over Wyoming continues to weaken and move away from us. The Frost Advisory remains in place for the Upper Plain as temperatures are dropping into the low/mid 30s in many areas. Clouds will keep increasing from the northwest as moisture spills over the top of a ridge building in from the west. Very light snow is possible on higher peaks and ridges tonight across the central mountains. Temperatures remain 10-15 degrees BELOW normal with highs approaching 60 across the Lower Plain, Magic Valley and around Challis.
454 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper level trough continues its slow drift through the Rockies today, with next wave of showers and thunderstorms lifting northward through the eastern plains early this morning. Overall, basically below seasonal temperatures in combination with unsettled meteorological conditions at times expected this week with warmer temperatures then anticipated by this weekend.
638 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Warm high pressure remains over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross northern Maine Tuesday then stall.
Deese Quiet fcst period continues with dry and abnormally warm airmass due to amplified ridging and likely even some aided subsidence from Hurricane Maria off the southeast coast.
1006 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Warmer through mid week with dry conditions continuing. Cooler towards the end of the week with lighter winds. JHM A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region and remain in place through midweek.
Brownsville radar indicates a few showers moving northwest across the lower Texas coastal waters early this morning. /issued 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): The region will remain trapped in an area of weakness aloft, as a mid/upper level trough deepens across the western half of the US and a weak area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf coast states slowly drifts westward. As the western trough builds eastward Monday and Monday night, deep layer moisture will be on the increase, with the dry pocket between 500 and 700 mb effectively eliminated.
The low-level moisture was supporting precipitable water values well above 1 inch (Midland's 00Z sounding integrated 1. Some form of southwesterly flow aloft will persist through much of the week as a broad trough remains anchored over the western states. One center of circulation within the trough currently spinning over Wyoming will open and lift into southern Canada during the next two days.
As for temperatures, highs today are expected to range from the low 70s across west central Kansas to upper 80s across central and south central Kansas. The cold front moving across the Central Plains is projected to push further southeast toward the Ark-La-Tex Region while cooler and drier air filters southward into the high plains. Otherwise, the cooler/drier air mass moving into the high plains in wake of the frontal passage from the past weekend will limit precip chances to areas of western Kansas further north.
But The upper level high pressure ridge is slowly losing control of out weather locally.
This system is moisture starved, but a few isolated showers in the higher elevations of central NV cannot be ruled out.
108 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes will weaken and shift east Tuesday.
835 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will cross the region today then exit the coast early tonight.
High pressure aloft and low level offshore flow will produce record breaking high temperatures for much of Western Washington this weekend. The high pressure aloft will move inland Sunday with low level flow turning onshore late in the day and cooler air reaching the coast while the interior will have its warmest day.
Clear skies and warming temperatures today as the ridge along the coast starts to build and move inland. More warming on Sunday as the surface thermal trough also starts to move into the area from the southwest, driving even more warming near the surface.
Cassell An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies through the weekend. Slightly unstable northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge will bring a few showers to the region on Saturday, but mostly dry conditions on Sunday as the ridge axis moves overhead.
Winds will range veer from the NNW to the NE with time as high pressure continues to build into the region from the north. Today Through Sunday Night A cold front was situated south of Arkansas this morning. A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the United States will push high pressure into Arkansas from the north.
Challenge will be rain shower placement with passage of upper low and def zone rain band across the northern FA this afternoon. Center of the upper low moving into SE ND this morning with an area of showers heading for the southern Red River valley. Second area of rain expected to move into the Devils Lake basin and northern valley late this morning to early afternoon as band of 700mb Omega slides south with the upper low.
A steady southeast breeze persists, averaging 10-15 mph over land, and ranging from 10-15 knots to 15-20 knots over water, with the higher wind speeds, south of the Florida Reef tract. On the large scale, a deep layer mean anticyclone is centered over the western North Atlantic this morning. The Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters are positioned beneath the southwestern flank of this anticyclone, with a prevailing deep current of east-southeast winds.
100 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and drift into central North Carolina tonight. However, with the main surge of cooler area still to the north and west of the area expect high temps on Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with even a few 90s in the far s/se.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies through the weekend. Slightly unstable northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge will bring a few showers to the region on Saturday, but mostly dry conditions on Sunday as the ridge axis moves overhead.
Also tweaked temperatures slightly to account for current observations, keeping us a one or two degrees cooler due to cloud cover.
Some of the short term models are hinting at possible isolated convection over the higher terrain of southern Monterey and San Benito counties. Otherwise expect continued modest cooling into Sunday as an upper trough approaches the offshore waters and strengthens the onshore flow as the marine layer will likely deepen to around 2000 feet. SFO Bridge Approach.
Cooler temperatures are forecast for today across inland areas with near- coastal areas about the same. Otherwise expect a continued modest cooling trend into Sunday as an upper trough approaches the coast and strengthens the onshore flow. SFO Bridge Approach.
1246 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will cross the region today then exit the coast early tonight.
1039 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front and low pressure moves across the area this morning.
1042 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Much drier and cooler air will arrive today and last through much of the coming week. Mins across the southeast will fall to the lower 60s. Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout. Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.
1042 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Cold front exits eastern mountains this morning. High pressure builds providing dry conditions.
742 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front is crossing the region early this morning. High pressure will build back into the region later today.
An essentially dry cold front slides from Central to Eastern Pennsylvania late this morning. Mainly dry and cooler air with comfortable humidity will arrive and last through much of the coming week. Afternoon highs should range from the mid 70s north to the lower to middle 80s southeast. Mins across the southeast will fall to the lower 60s. Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout. Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.
The primary model that advertises this high-based/light precip potential is the HRRR, and is likely overdone, but with modest mid-level lift/saturation already evident from satellite trends in the form of generally increasing mid-level clouds, at least a few rogue drops seem conceivable despite the relatively dry profile especially in the lowest 10,000 ft. An upper level trough will track from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes tonight. At the sfc a cool/dry area of high pressure will slide down out of Canada and into the northern and central plains. As we get into the first days of the upcoming work week, the upper level ridge axis is starting to push east more into the Rockies, thanks to a stronger system moving into western Canada.
Soundings also continue to show relatively warm air aloft due to ridge still being nearly stacked over region. The affects of the ridge will continue to supress convection, but increased moisture should increase coverage compared to yesterday. Low level ridge position a bit south of past days should support more focus closer to the coast north of the Cape (along I-4 coridor), but aformentioned models have backed off on coverage compared to previous runs. Atlc ridge axis draped across central FL and adjacent Atlc will produce a southerly flow turning SE near the coast in a sea breeze this afternoon.
1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning. Dewpoints have dropped into the lower to mid 60s resulting in lower humidity across the area. /issued 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/ A cold front has moved through the Midsouth, currently located along a line from Greenwood, MS to Columbus Air Force Base to Jasper, AL. At Walnut Ridge, AR and Pine Bluff, MO, dew points are in the low 60s.
One area of showers assoc with the main upper low circulation that is near Fergus Falls at mid morning will continue to move south-southeast. Challenge will be rain shower placement with passage of upper low and def zone rain band across the northern FA this afternoon. Center of the upper low moving into SE ND this morning with an area of showers heading for the southern Red River valley. Second area of rain expected to move into the Devils Lake basin and northern valley late this morning to early afternoon as band of 700mb Omega slides south with the upper low.
926 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will cross the region today then exit the coast early tonight.
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and drift into central North Carolina tonight. However, with the main surge of cooler area still to the north and west of the area expect high temps on Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with even a few 90s in the far s/se.
634 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 An upper level trough will track from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes tonight. At the sfc a cool/dry area of high pressure will slide down out of Canada and into the northern and central plains. As we get into the first days of the upcoming work week, the upper level ridge axis is starting to push east more into the Rockies, thanks to a stronger system moving into western Canada.
Elsewhere, have VCSH starting at 16Z as heating, a cold front, and boundary collisions generate additional showers and thunderstorms later this morning through Sunday. Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad, shallow trough over the country with the flow over Texas from the northwest. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from south of Dallas to San Angelo to Van Horn. The cold front will move into our CWA and stall.