Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler air will also move over the mountains. A cold front will drop south across eastern Colorado tonight.
Upper trough seen on GOES-16 WV imagery this afternoon over the Great Basin area will dampen as it ejects eastward over the Rockies and onto the plains by Sunday evening.
145 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will approach the area today with increasing clouds and afternoon rain showers. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s to the lower 70s. Showers were already developing early this morning over western IL and eastern IA in an area of frontal lift ahead a developing low pressure area over MO. Have increased rainfall amounts with the highest values from Ft Wayne east and south to around 2 inches.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to northern Oklahoma between 15-18z Sunday. Hot conditions are expected again Sunday over southern and western Oklahoma ahead of a cold front that will arrive in northern Oklahoma by afternoon, keeping temperatures down there.
A small area of high pressure embedded in the larger zonal pattern will keep conditions dry trough much of morning tomorrow.
Though still gusty, they are no longer reaching high wind criteria, so have decided to cancel the high wind warning. Snow showers were increasing over the higher terrain. Otherwise expect winds to gradually decrease this evening over the lower elevations, although winds will remain a bit breezy throughout the night on the plains, especially along and south of US50. Snow across the central mountains will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this evening and last into tonight as jet and weak wave move across the higher terrain. Snow and blowing snow will be a major concern across the higher terrain across the central mtns tonight.
318 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Ridging at the surface and aloft will dominate the central Gulf Coast region for the next two to three days.
Cloud cover is keeping conditions on the cooler side in some locations with readings in the lower 70s.
157 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Strong high pressure will build to the north today.
Current surface map places weak low near the Black Hills with cold front moving through southeast Montana into northeast Wyoming. Cold front slips through western South Dakota this morning. High pressure builds across the northern plains Sunday.
340 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front across the Tennessee valley will lift north, and move north of the forecast area Sunday morning. A strong cold front will move across the area Sunday night kicking off thunderstorms. Warm front just into SRN KY. Surge of moisture overnight combined with the warm front will produce showers after midnight tonight. gradually moving east of the forecast area as the warm front finally lifts north of the area. but shear increases significantly as the 850mb winds increase to 55 kt by 00Z ahead of the cold front. GFS and ECMWF in good agreement moving the cold front into NW OH by 00z.
Even with upper ridging building in from the west enough surface heating will occur today to produce a few thunderstorms east of the MS River this afternoon. Quiet weather with a broad upper ridge across the area. Expect rainfree weather and very warm temperatures with lows in the 60s and highs on Sunday in the lower 80s.
High pressure will settle over the region on Sunday with highs only the lower 30s expected.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front over the northern Plains and high pressure positioned over the east coast. Low level warm advection will continue across the region, ahead of a cold front that will move across western Wisconsin after midnight. Temps should not move very much, so not expecting any freezing drizzle. A couple of cold fronts will keep temps chilly along with brief periods of snow shower activity across the far north as winds turn northwest behind the cold fronts. Progs are attempting to focus the first period of lake effect snow showers Sunday night after the Sunday cold front.
After morning low clouds and fog burn off, we should see another warm and dry day across the area as an upper ridge remains across south and central Texas.
today and tonight, supporting the equatorward advance of a cold front from the northern High Plains into the mid-MO Valley. Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will move through most of the forecast area with a low-probability chance of light rain within a zone of frontogenetical forcing over our northern counties. On Sunday into Sunday night, a low-level ridge axis will build through the mid-MO Valley with the presence of a continental-polar air mass and scattered to broken clouds holding high temperatures generally in the 40s.
309 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Plenty of mid level cloud cover continues to stream across the region this afternoon as most of the low level stratus from this morning has eroded. along with allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 50s the past hour or so. have a difficult time seeing a rapid fall off in temperatures overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite this low potential. with a rapid erosion of any fog that does develop as the aforementioned cold front tracks south across the local area. so also added this low end probability to the forecast.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front just north of the I-70 corridor in Missouri then back through Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures are in the lower 70s at most locations. Highs on Sunday will approach the lower 80s.
315 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A positive tilt upper trough will translate east across the northern plains tonight and into the upper Midwest by Sunday evening. A predominantly zonal upper level pattern will be in place for the period, with the breakdown of a broad ridge over the NE Pacific allowing a weak wave to press southward midweek.
156 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will lift northwards today. A strong cold front will bring the potential for severe weather Sunday evening into Sunday night. Now, high resolution models indicate that chance will be minimal, with the higher PoPs remaining off to our west and northwest with an embedded s/wv. All in all, highs will occur late as the thermal warming will be mainly WAA due to an approaching warm front from the south. Went close to guidance for high temperatures on Sunday with highs in the lower 70s to upper 70s. Thunderstorms in advance of a cold front will begin to push into the region at the very end of the short term period.
Pops diminish overnight as the upper ridge builds back over the state. No pops for Sunday as the forecast area remains under the flat upper ridge.
Although warmer air is slowly working northward, moderate to briefly heavy snow has been occurring over parts of Clark into Taylor County, with a general 2 to 3 inch snowfall still expected over parts of Clark into Taylor County. With lower stratus in place, could also see the typical late fall bouts of dense fog for the higher terrain spots as stratus scrapes the ridges. As discussed yesterday, faster arrival of a cold front and associated cooling aloft looks to spoil what could have been a much warmer day locally with highs mainly in the 40s early but falling through the afternoon. Not a whole lot to talk about through the coming work week, as the overall flow remains dominated by some degree of upper troughing across the region (opinions may vary among guidance).
A cold front will move southeast across central Missouri and central Illinois Sunday afternoon. In addition, the low level flow will decrease and veer westerly overnight.
Surface based CAPE's reach over 1500 J/kg by midday along and south of I-72, with strong speed sheer in the lower levels. Little change in temperature is expected tonight, ranging from the lower 50s northwest of Peoria, to the mid 60s south of I-70.
To close out the weekend, a strong upr lvl trof is fcst to move thru the NRN Plains and into the Great Lakes region.
324 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Scattered showers will be possible this evening and Sunday with the passage of a warm front.
549 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A shower or two will be possible this evening and Sunday with the passage of a warm front.
Subtle short wave trough and upper level divergence bullseye continues to advance through NE lower Michigan/ Lake Huron. Subtle short wave trough will exit out of the region tonight taking showery precip with it. This will drive a cold front through the state during the day Sunday. Short wave trough/attending showers will exit out of the region heading into the evening. lots of low level moisture/a deep surface based saturated layer and strong inversion aloft remains through much of the night along with substantial shear through the low levels. cold front presses into the western Great Lakes during the morning and crosses the region through the day. Colder air returns behind a departing cold front Sunday night.
335 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 As anticipated by earlier shift, seeing a distinct difference in temperatures this afternoon between low stratus in our east and clearing ahead of the surface cold front in our west.
Despite the cloud cover, highs will be warmer today and slightly above normal for early November. Scattered convection is possible mainly late tonight across northeast MO and west central IL along and north of a weak warm front that will develop across central MO. The cold front should begin to move southeast through the day on Sunday. Ceilings should improve to at least high MVFR ahead of the cold front tomorrow.
The lower VSBY's are expected to be at ALI to VCT. A fairly persistent forecast will continue across South Texas as a mid level ridge remains overhead.
An upper level short wave trough can be seen in WV and IR satellite imagery over the MS/AL state line. Locally, expect a quiet day dominated by high pressure, with some upper level cloudiness over our northern zones.
Freezing drizzle was reported north of Park Rapids earlier, but temps have roads have improved also. Tomorrow cloudy skies, northwest winds of 15 mph, and highs in the 20s are expected as cold high pressure moves in from the northwest.
303 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 The mean layered ridge remains situated over Mexico, allowing a short wave trough apparent on water vapor imagery to dive southeast through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. To our east, an inverted trough has carved out a pocket of cyclonic flow over the Bahamas. Deep convection has been lacking across our region despite the falling heights (see this morning's RAOBS) and the agitation in the lower levels.
Lows in the lower-mid 60s interior to mid-upper 60s close to the coast.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Area of low pressure currently stretching from the central Dakotas into western NE/KS and CO. This is associated with an upper trough moving through the central plains of Canada currently on WV imagery. As associated cold front will drop through the state late tonight into Sunday.
A 500 mb ridge is in place to the west, keeping South Florida on the eastern edge.
243 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure builds across Southeast Canada then into the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, ridging down into the Mid Atlantic.
A large area of high pressure stretching from New England southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico will dominate our weather through the weekend. A quasi-stationary trough of low pressure over the Gulf Stream off the east coast of Florida will aid in the development of some showers on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will run several degrees above normal with lows tonight generally in the lower to middle 60s and highs on Sunday in the middle 80s. Stable dry conditions under the deep layered ridging will support pleasant dry weather with light winds across the entire forecast area with above normal temperatures continuing through the period, with sufficient low level moisture and light winds supporting some patchy fog development over inland locations during the late night and early morning hours each day.
339 PM MST Sat Nov 4 2017 The region will remain situated between strong high pressure centered over Mexico and strong low pressure centered near the Pacific Northwest.
Attention will turn to our northwest Sunday afternoon, as we watch showers and storms develop as a cold front plows across Illinois, and Indiana.
This is a high pop/low qpf event so not looking at more than an inch of accumulation in the lower elevations, but maybe a bit more in the foothills and mountains.
The cold air damming regime will erode on Sunday and a return to warmer temperatures is expected. The forecast problem for Sunday will center around the erosion of the CAD wedge as the airmass will hang around despite the high pressure lifting off to the northeast.
Webcam in Lemon is also showing light pcpn, possibly in the form of rain/freezing rain. With increasing low level lift, pcpn could become more robust later this afternoon near Mobridge. Road surfaces are still ice covered however so a SPS will remain in place through the morning for poor travel conditions until we can get some peeks of sun and slights warmer temperatures. BUFKIT soundings remain mostly saturated in the low levels into tonight as could be expected - with varying thickness from 3 to 6kft.
416 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Primary forecast challenge through Sunday afternoon deals with the cold front passage this evening and remnant moisture in its wake. Moisture ahead of the front is quite limited in the low levels per 15F+ dew point depressions and the lack of low/mid level cloud cover. The wild card is a warm wedge around 5kft agl, which introduces the threat of freezing precip. Made little change to min temps overnight other than a degree cooler due to stronger/earlier CAA upstream. Did lower Sunday max temps at least 2-3 degrees for most places to follow the trending cooler MAV and MET guidance.
/issued 414 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A Mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico and south Texas will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. High temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s inland. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s area wide.
Upper ridging will continue to keep some hold on our region, which should limit convection later tonight and through the day tomorrow.
This as region remains on the northeast periphery of an expansive anticyclone positioned over old Mexico yielding a dry westerly flow.
/issued 344 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/ After a day of cooler temperatures yesterday, we will see things warm up rapidly again today and Saturday.
Rain ending early this morning as a weak surface cold front passes through the Bay Area with afternoon clearing.
217 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Warm front quickly lifting north, just south of Interstate 44 this afternoon, extending into northwest Arkansas. South of the front temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 80s. Cold front forecast to be near the Interstate 44 corridor around 21Z Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will again be in the lower to mid 80s along/south of front.
330 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure hanging over the sern CONUS, providing the area with a continued onshore low-level flow. Closer to home, as temps have continued to warm to the lower/mid 80s, a few showers have popped up as expected, otherwise a warm and partly cloudy day continues.
This is due to a cold front moving down from Nebraska. Highs today are expected to range from the lower 60s across north central Kansas to low 80s across far southwestern Kansas. The cold front mentioned in the short term section will sweep through the CWA early Sunday morning. Cooler air will be ushered in behind this front with highs ranging from around 50 degrees across northwest Kansas to mid 60s along the KS/OK border.
Zonal flow aloft will continue the remainder of the weekend and into early work week with 850mb thermal ridge holding in place.
These cooler temperatures were a result of the snow that fell across this area last night and this morning. The highest snow total was 4 inches near Owen and Riplinger (both in Clark County). Meanwhile, temperatures were in the lower and mid 40s across remainder of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. For this evening, model soundings show that the lowest 1 to 1. The highest signal for drizzle was across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin where there was some weak 900 to 800 mb frontogenesis. After midnight and Sunday morning, a cold front will move southeast through the region.
Wide range in temps expected this afternoon/evening with temps in the low 70s where sun is breaking out and only middle 50s in Southeast Kansas. Temperatures will start off in the 50s and 60s Sunday morning with increasing southerly winds as low pressure develops across Oklahoma and Kansas. A cold front will approach our far NW CWA shortly after midday into the early afternoon hours Tomorrow.
As we go past 12Z near the end of the TAF forecast period, winds will shift to northwesterly at KGUY behind the cold front.
Next system of interest will be in the from of an approaching cold front, late Sunday night.
Given the humidity on hand, you can expect apparent temps in the lower 90s inland.
These features will move off to the east later today and weak mid level ridging will move in. Forecast confidence is high: Models are in pretty good agreement for Sunday, bringing low pressure through the region.
High pressure over the Great Lakes is losing ground to the approach of a series of waves out of the west as an upper low tries to take shape over the Northern Rockies. further assisted by showery activities enhancing the low level RH. but moving eastward in the afternoon/evening hours where the low level jet starts to ramp up.
The best chance of any precipitation will be in the high southern Sierra of Inyo County this weekend.
A few lingering showers this afternoon as a weak surface cold front passes through the Bay Area.
May see patchy fog across the ranchlands and brush country late tonight into the predawn hours of Sunday, but southern Plains low pressure ahead of a cold front will support light winds and lesser fog potential for the Lower Valley.
WV imagery shows flow aloft has gone from zonal to almost SW as an upper ridge builds over Mexico, and a trough moves onshore CA out west.
107 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 The main forecast concern is timing of the exiting precipitation and remain headlines early this morning and then the movement of the cold front east over the cwa tonight. The latest water vapor imagery showing the initial short wave trough exiting to the east this morning. We should remain in between system for the day as the next trough moves east over Montana and into the Dakotas. There may be some patchy flurry or freezing drizzle activity into central areas early, so will we retain some of e advisory until its original expiration. The cold front sweeps east tonight and we will increase pops from west to east overnight.
643 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure will move east offshore overnight.
A weak warm front associated with this developing system is working into the Pacific Northwest and will cause a few showers over portions of the area today.
Snow showers were increasing over the higher terrain. Otherwise expect winds to gradually decrease this evening over the lower elevations, although winds will remain a bit breezy throughout the night on the plains, especially along and south of US50. Snow across the central mountains will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this evening and last into tonight as jet and weak wave move across the higher terrain. Snow and blowing snow will be a major concern across the higher terrain across the central mtns tonight.
Main question today is how far north will ultimately mix out cooler air and low clouds before sunset. /Issued 423 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/ Short term concerns are the fog and low clouds this morning, followed by the warm front location this afternoon. Or, if the low clouds don't erode by mid afternoon, temperatures could just rise to the low/mid 70s, especially given current temps in the low 50s. The low level flow just off the surface is from the southwest, which should help erode the clouds this afternoon, but the temperatures should stay quite cool much of the day with the clouds. Earlier data suggested that Sunday would be quite warm, but the next cold front may arrive earlier on Sunday than previously expected, suppressing highs across northeast Oklahoma a bit.
335 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure will move east offshore overnight.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge pushing up through Mexico with westerly to northwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Northern Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south to southwest. The upper level ridge will shift slightly to the east during this period. There will be little change to the low levels.
Despite the cloud cover, temperatures still managed to warm into mainly the lower to upper 80s late this aftn and as such, a few locations have been threatening record temps once again /the record at Shreveport LA airport is 86 degrees and the temp is at 20Z was 86 thus tying the record thus far/. 500 mb height fields have been on the rise courtesy of an UA ridge expanding northward from Mexico and southern TX, though remaining centered well south of the CWA. Tomorrow aftn, lee troughing will maintain a southerly sfc flow whilst a tightened pressure gradient results in slightly breezy conditions especially across east TX.
A mid level high pressure system remains centered south of TX across Mex.
Made a few changes to the ongoing forecast such as showing the correct surface temperature curve as it is warmer than was depicted in the earlier forecast package. Southerly surface winds have maintained more than adequate low level moisture resulting in warmer dewpoint temperatures than initially thought. Given the warmer surface temperatures and computer models doing a poor job with the above normal warmth of late, have gone ahead and raised the max temperatures by a few more degrees /resulting in temperatures 10-12 degrees above normal/. /issued 513 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/ Cooler temps in the I-30 corridor and North as weak 1015mb bubble of high pressure over OK has nosed into our area over the last day or so. Otherwise just a slightly cooler day with the overall warm regime to persist under flat ridging into the new week.
Next in a series of cold front will move into northwest parts of Oklahoma after sunrise Sunday and progress southward over at least the northern half of Oklahoma by mid- afternoon.
Otherwise some fog/drizzle hanging around this morning, with low level waa/lift and saturated lower levels across the north through the evening ahead of the approaching cold front.
Rain will develop along a cold front this evening to the northwest, which will slide through late this evening and overnight.
The weather will turn wetter but warmer after midweek with significant mountain snows possible by the weekend. An unseasonably chilly upper level trough will promote periods of light snow for the remainder of the weekend. A pair of upper level disturbances will track through our chilly trough enhancing snow today and late tonight. There are some discrepancies between the models on how far north the warm frontal forcing will track.
Once the front gets into central and eastern MO by midday tomorrow, clashing with warmer, more unstable air, some of these showers could develop into elevated thunderstorms for the local forecast area.
High pressure ridging will nose into the Northland with skies gradually clearing.