Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight into Sunday morning the coldest of the 850 mb air will move overhead with the trough axis just off to our west. Temperatures Sunday morning will also be right around freezing and with the freeze program still ongoing across the southern portions of the CWA a frost advisory or freeze warning might be required for tonight into Sunday morning. During the day Sunday clouds will remain thanks to a second piece of mid-level energy diving south helping to reinforce the trough axis over the area.
VFR will prevail through the period due to high pressure dominating the weather. /issued 356 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Even after an adjustment earlier, temps still running a few degrees warmer than forecast at this hour in the mid-Lower RGV, mainly due to some stubborn mid- level clouds. With nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling in place, low temperatures for Sunday morning will fall to the low-mid 40s, except on the barrier island.
A layer of high clouds will make its way across Texas later this morning and early afternoon as the upper level trough brings some high level moisture. /Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ /Today and Tonight/ Today should be a fantastic but cool day across North Texas as the large upper trough continues to move east of the area and strong height rises spread through the southern Plains. This will make temperatures in the 50s feel a little cooler, although full sun will help. By tonight, the high will shift south and east of the area with light southwest winds prevailing across the region.
1111 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region today. A cold front is now pushing into the eastern portions of the forecast area late this morning. Fries The amplifying trough over the Central CONUS will shunt that front over the Upper Ohio today, but the jet-energy digging the trough is projected to slow progress and result in a brief period of split upper flow. The latest model trends are thus holding the moisture plume and precip over the ridges through Sunday, which is a deviation from yesterdays solutions. That same slowing trend is also retarding the encroachment of colder air over those same areas; thus, this mornings forecast issuance delays snow accumulation over the ridges until Sunday night, although some snow may mix with lingering rain over points west.
744 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A strong cold front has now moved into east Tennessee.
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A strong upper level trough remains just west of the forecast area, with the associated surface cold front just east of the TN Valley. Temperatures will be rather cool, given the strong CAA, with daytime highs expected to remain in the lower 50s (roughly 20 degrees below normal for late October). The deep upper trof axis will be overhead Sunday morning, fortified by another impulse dropping into its base later tonight. At the surface, the ridge axis will shift into the central Gulf Coast and TN valley.
1137 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Deep longwave troughing is evident in upper level water vapor imagery this morning. which is helping to push a sfc cold front across the region. 15z obs (ASOS & RAWS) indicate the cold front lies in the vicinity of a Summerville to Dalton line. Expect a non-diurnal trend in temps this afternoon for all locations except central and east-central CWA as the cold front pushes thru. /Issued 328 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ A cold front is about to enter far nw GA and is forecast to move across the area today and this evening. With increased winds tonight, freezing temperatures or frost are not likely.
Deeper moisture will surge northward off the Gulf late tonight into Sunday as the next mid-level inverted trough moves westward into Deep South Texas. Have slightly trimmed back PoPs for tonight from west to east with the timing of the higher moisture out west not expected to arrive until Sunday morning and afternoon. On Sunday, rain chances increase to 30% for much of the areas as the trough moves closer, but models still slightly differ, so have not made any major changes. Cooler temperatures are also expected on Sunday with highs ranging from the lower to upper 90s.
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Dry and pleasant weather will persist today as high pressure drifts south across the Great Lakes region.
High pressure will begin to erode and retreat wwd Sunday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes.
A weak upper level trough extending south-southwest from a larger trough over the northeast conus will remain over the region through the near term, while an upper ridge persists across the southwest conus to the central and southern plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s inland areas, mid 70s along the coastal sections, with upper 70s at the beaches.
A strong upper high will range across the central and southern plains, more or less, east to west.
357 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front from north central Canada will approach the region late tonight and will cross northern portions of region Sunday afternoon and evening then stall Sunday night over central portions of the region.
An upper level trough extends through the Great Lakes and into the Central Appalachians on Saturday. This trough digs southward over the weekend and stretches a weak cold front from the trough axis.
231 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Dry and pleasant weather will persist today as high pressure drifts south across the Great Lakes region.
A band of mid level dry air, in association with subsidence between mid-upper ridge to the north and TUTT axis to the south, is shown lingering over our central and northern sections. A mid level trough will dig into the southeast states early in the week, then diminish into a weak cyclonic shear axis late. This will shunt the low/mid level Atlantic ridge into central/south Florida. The position of the subtropical ridge will bring southwest steering flow, albeit weak, which will get east coast locations back into at least a scattered coverage of afternoon and evening showers/storms. Axis of high pressure ridge is forecast to drop in to the northern waters. Axis of high pressure ridge will settle farther south, probably into the southern waters.
1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance The frontal boundary is now to our south, however, dew points still over in the lower 70s across our southern tier of counties. Sunday night, a piece of energy tops the upper ridge, to our west, and falls down the Wabash valley, on the back side of the upper trof, to our east.
The cold front that is generating today's convective activity will also cause temperatures to fall back into the 70s and 80s for highs on Sunday. As a result, temperatures could cool off across valleys of northwest Montana, with some places seeing lows dropping down to as low as the mid-30s! Locations such as Polebridge, West Glacier, Eureka, Libby, Yaak, and Troy will have the best chances of seeing temps dip below the 40 degree mark.
135 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. Mid-to-upper level trough swinging across the area this morning has triggered a few showers over the Mohawk Valley and western Catskills. The upper level trough axis will set up over New England today.
At the surface, the Bermuda high pressure ridge axis across the region will weaken further for light winds tonight then weak bay and seabreezes Sunday.
A cold front stretched across the forecast area will continue to move southward this evening and tonight. Behind the front, high pressure begins to build in with subsidence leading to a mostly clear sky. The cold front will linger just to our south on Sunday with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions expected for most of the area.
327 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 An area of high pressure currently over southern Saskatchewan will track southeast across the region tonight through Sunday morning. The high pressure will shift the winds from the northeast today, to the southeast on Sunday. A low pressure system approaching the region from the west will strengthen the pressure gradient Sunday afternoon, mainly in north central where gusts could exceed 25 mph at times.
By Sunday afternoon, the mid and upper-level inverted trough will be located over the Coastal Plains and Texas Coast.
Convection likely to develop offshore overnight with some of it moving inland before weakening, so shifted the higher POPs overnight more toward the coast. For Sunday, plentiful moisture and weakness in the ridge/weak inverted trough near the coast should bring scattered convection to the area, and have gone with at least chance POPs (likely over the Victoria area) for Sunday. For overnight lows went a degree or two warmer tonight than lows this morning, but still below guidance south and west since a light land breeze is expected toward morning (which will help bring the very light fog in some areas). Add another degree to the overnight lows for Sunday night from the lows Sunday morning. Going cooler on Sunday than today due to the clouds and rain; overall not a big change to the previous high temperature forecast for Sunday.
Temperatures running cooler than curve however with thinning clouds will not alter maximum temperatures. Upper level ridge over the Rockies will move east and flatten over the Northern Plains by Sun and over the Great Lakes by 12Z Tue. Upper level trough off the BC coast will follow in tow and move into northeastern Canada by the end of the period. The region will be stuck in zonal flow aloft before transitioning to slightly more northwesterly flow between an upper low near Hudson Bay and ridging continuing to build across the southern CONUS.
The one exception may be convection associated with the cold front across our northeastern zones.
As of 08Z an upper level ridging across the Rockies to inch its axis towards the central and northern Plains. Upper trough across the northeastern CONUS continues to eject northeast. At the surface, high pressure center across western IL/eastern IA continues to sink southward within the Mississippi Valley.
An inverted trough will be forming in the height field just south of Plains ridging and eastern CONUS troughing tomorrow. Models advect in early work week higher PVA within easterly flow underneath an eastward expanding Southern Plains ridge. The only mentionable item in the extended will be that upper ridging will envelop the southeastern U. 31 High pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over West Texas will maintain generally onshore winds for the next 5 to 7 days.
Overnight lows will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 70s. West Central Texas will remain on the southern periphery of an upper level ridge centered across the Central Plains. Daniels (Sunday night through Saturday) Broad upper ridging will remain north and west of the region for much of the period, with a gradual eastward expansion through the work week.
144 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak trough of low pressure will dissipate across the area this evening. Weak high pressure will move east across the area through Sunday evening.
311 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Moisture associated with a weak upper low over central Colorado, stuck under a broad upper ridge across the intermountain west, continues to allow scattered thunderstorms to form, mainly south of I76. The upper low will slowly shift east over Lincoln County overnight, keeping a chance of showers and storms continuing over there. The upper low will continue moving east Sunday, with warmer midlevel temperatures moving in from the west. Overall however, high temperatures will be slightly warmer. Most of the plains will remain dry except the far eastern plains still under the influence of the upper low.
202 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Mid level upper low continues to linger over eastern Colorado, with deep plume of moisture overriding our CWA.
High pressure will keep dry conditions across central Indiana through Sunday morning. A cold front will bring chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening before dry weather returns for the beginning of the work week. expect quiet and pleasant weather today as the region resides under the influence of high pressure. Nudged high temps in the Indy metro and points south up a degree into the lower 80s based on morning trends but left them alone elsewhere. Coolest temps will be northeast of Indy where the low clouds are limiting warming right now.
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure over Illinois will drift southeast to the Carolinas by Sunday evening.
Temperatures range from the 60 in the higher terrain to the lower 80s in the sunnier southeast. The nice weather will continue Sunday with low humidity, fewer clouds, and thus warmer daytime high temperatures.
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure centered just northwest of Pontiac this morning keeping the weather largely quiet this morning. The rest of the CWA still looks to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. A weak high pressure ridge remains in control of the weather across Central Illinois this morning. And with slightly drier air in place, the warm temperatures in the low 80s with plenty of sunshine and light winds will result in a mild, pleasant day for Central Illinois. Overnight tonight, the ridge axis shifts to the east and the winds become increasingly south/southwesterly, starting a prolonged period of warm air advection into the region that will bring a warming trend into the work week.
/Issued 421 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ A weak low pressure trough is situated across central GA early this morning. A weak cold front is also situated across the TN valley and Mid Atlantic. The front will be accompanied by a mid level trough axis with plenty of available energy.
An approaching Pacific cold front is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Great Falls forecast area this afternoon. Gusty west winds and dry conditions will prevail across north central Montana on Sunday with afternoon highs expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
Temperatures have been trending 3 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Clouds moving up from the south will spread over parts of the region and help to keep tonight's lows a little warmer. The clouds will move east during Sunday morning and temperatures will warm to between 103 and 108 for the highs. The heat will be short lived as the high pressure shifts to the east and a weak trough develops over the west coast.
/issued 1039 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ A cold front currently stretches across northern portions of the CWA, and will be a focal point for convection today as it eases south. /issued 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ The cold front continues to inch southward across the CWA early this morning and is running nearly parallel to and just north of Interstate 40.
Some patchy fog to areas of fog will develop after midnight across the region as temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, topping out in the mid to upper 80s. For tomorrow night, a cold front will drop towards southern IN.
But drier air is also mixing down from aloft as subsidence increases across the area, which is particularly evident in the low level water vapor. The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered over eastern KS with a trough extending from Ontario and Quebec south and southwest into the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. Meanwhile another upper level ridge center is expected over the Southwest Conus with a trough to the north extending from central portions of Canada southwest into the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northwest.
In addition, a surface inverted trough was located along 23N in the Gulf. A weak upper level trough axis from east Tennessee to southern Mississippi, inverted trough from west central Gulf to southeast Louisiana and dirty high over Florida.
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 The cold front continues over southern Arkansas at this time. with highs in the low 80s to low 90s. As a result of the slightly cooler temps.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across far south central KY this morning near the cold front. Surface analysis reveals a weak cold front north of the TN border that is slowly moving south. Drier air and subsidence associated with high pressure have resulted in mostly clear skies behind the front. Warm and dry weather can be expected Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
306 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure over the midwest will control the weather through Sunday.
Pre-frontal trof will move into the area overnight tonight from the west and will provide an additional focus to continue isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. Expect another warm night across the area for those that do not get rainfall, with lows in the 65 to 75 degree range in the lower elevations. Tomorrow's set up remains pretty much unchanged with the pre- frontal trof holding over SE MT and main front moving into the area in the early afternoon hours as an upper level low crashes the upper ridge and moves across southern Canada. Models continue to indicate a squall line of stronger thunderstorms will develop along the cold front and push through the area during the afternoon and early evening hours.
1118 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 The cyclonic circulation trapped under the ridge appears to have cleared the divide overnight as is spinning over the eastern High Plains of Colorado. Temperatures remain above normal with triple digits found over the lower desert valleys of southwest CWA. As would be expected this time of year the stronger energy is in the higher latitudes. Some of this energy is forecast to eject from the Low of the Left Coast and travel through the Canadian Prairies before being absorbed by a large circulation over Northeast NOAM. The ridge appears to be strong enough to deflect the stronger westerlies to the north though the ridge axis will be slowly pushes east onto the Plains by mid week.
The passage of a cold front tonight will produce breezy west winds starting late this afternoon and continuing through Sunday. Today: Elevated forced convection in the form of thunderstorms will continue to run up the west side of a ridge of high pressure with an axis placed over Montana. Tonight through Sunday night: The ridge axis is displaced further east and oriented almost over the Montana and Dakotas border and thus any convection firing up and following the eastern edge of the ridge gets shifted east and away from Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho as well. End result is a weak trof takes hold over Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho and lingers there through this interval.
High pressure moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday will keep surface winds from the southeast over much of the area and dry conditions in place. Temperatures should remain slightly cooler than today, with lower 80s over the Buffalo Ridge to the middle and upper 90s over the Missouri River Valley.
230 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. Mid-to-upper level trough swinging across the area this morning has triggered a few showers over the Mohawk Valley and western Catskills. The upper level trough axis will set up over New England today.
A weak cold front will slip across our area this afternoon and tonight and push the best rain chance south of our TAF sites by early this evening.
Upper ridge building across the plains will lead to a slow warming trend for the beginning of the week with highs climbing into the middle 90s.
1130 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak upper level circulation centered near Pueblo this morning, with a few light showers/sprinkles rotating around the low over the eastern mountains and plains as of 10z. Farther west, from the I-25 corridor back into the mountains, moisture and instability remain plentiful, so another round of afternoon convection looks likely to develop over the higher terrain early in the afternoon, spreading across lower elevations late in the day.
257 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 At 245 PM, a cold front extended from Marquette Michigan to Sioux Falls South Dakota. The highest threat for storms and severe weather will be from 4 PM to 10 PM. Since the current satellite is showing this moisture in the wake of the cold front and this has been a consistent feature, increased the cloud percentages some.
Night/morning low clouds and fog will be restricted to coastal areas as the marine layer becomes shallower under strengthening high pressure aloft. The upper-level ridge has begun it's progression northward, which has brought stronger southeast flow in the mid- levels, although the lower levels remain very dry as seen on the morning KNKX sounding. The ridge may be a bit strong for much convection over the mountains today, but a stray shower/thunderstorm could develop this afternoon as a weak upper- level disturbance moves over the area.
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Upper level ridging over the western CONUS will build eastward over the next 24 hours and allowing southerly return flow to become more established over NE Kansas. Raised lows a couple of degrees given recent cool biases in the models and the potential for the high clouds. Highs for tomorrow will rise back into the low to mid 90s as H850 temps rise into the low to mid 20s C.
247 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and troughing over the Pacific NW and a trough in New England. A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and early evening and kick off some low chance to slight chance pops.
210 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 It has been relatively quiet thus far today as high pressure aloft suppresses convection. The upper ridge will continue to drift southward as an upper trough tries to push southward across Georgia. Isolated showers and storms will become scattered in nature late this afternoon into the early evening across interior southeast Georgia closer to the upper trough, and between Highway 301 and I-75 in northeast Florida as the sea breeze boundaries collide. The upper trough will nose into southeast Georgia from the north late tonight and near the FL/GA border by Sunday afternoon. Light winds in the low levels will allow the sea breeze boundaries to move inland in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 90s, except upper 80s at the beaches.
334 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing around the region this afternoon, associated with a cold front.
However we will likely see somewhat drier conditions over the lower elevations (as compared to the last few days) along with warmer conditions. Temperatures over the lower elevations will warm up with mid to upper 90s returning to the plains, 70s and 80s mtns/valleys.
High pressure generally centered north to northeast of the area will keep us open to easterly wave and inverted trough activity the first half of the week. A weak inverted trough remains immediately upstream in Chihuahua and southern New Mexico with that feature slowly rotating into our area over the next 48 hours. We'll pick up a southerly component to our flow later in the new week but still nothing from the westerlies as the ridge shifts a little east.
Meanwhile, cooler marine air will persist along the coast, with temperatures moderating slightly during the afternoon as low clouds dissipate. An upper high positioned from SRN NV ENE across the SRN/CNTRL Rockies is forecast to flatten out during the next 24-48 hours as a series of upper troughs progress E across the NRN CONUS/SRN Canada.
327 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure will bring mostly clear skies tonight.
Strong onshore flow is developing this afternoon in response to an upper level trough that will cross the forecast area late tonight.