Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
421 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure east of the region, with low pressure across southern CO. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough digging southeast across the western states, with southwest flow ahead of the trough across the Rockies and Plains. A wide range of temps across the area as usual this morning, ranging from the teens below zero in the valleys of northwest SD to the teens above zero over far southern SD where there is some wind to mix out the low levels.
Another record setting day ahead as high temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s, except for the upper 70s along the immediate coastal sections.
At 9 AM CST, a cold front was sitting along a line from about Dale Hollow Lake, back to Lebanon, Franklin, and Waynesboro. Northwest of the front, temperatures were in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and southeast of the boundary, temps were in the low to mid 60s. A pesky cold front is still trying to make its way through Middle Tennessee this morning, with a line of moderate to heavy showers moving onto the Cumberland Plateau as of this writing.
Temperatures across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas early this morning remained at or just the below the freezing mark with the exception of south central MO along the MO/AR border. Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain continued. The freezing drizzle/rain is expected to continue through sunrise today before temperatures slowly warm above freezing and the light precipitation tapers off. Temperatures with this system will remain well above freezing so all this precipitation will fall in liquid form.
Easterly to southeasterly flow will keep coastal regions cooler by 5-10 degrees when compared to inland areas. With the next trough axis moving in tonight, spotty showers are possible, 20-30% chance as things stand right now, for coastal counties across northeast Florida during the overnight and early tomorrow morning. Still a chance for limited visibility across the cooler waters of southeast Georgia.
Clear and cold to begin the day as weak high pressure remains over the forecast area. Little or no snow is expected west of a line from Selfridge to Bismarck and Carrington.
1005 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 Deep/strong ridge axis over the W Atlc remains the dominant WX feature for central FL. A strong high pres ridge centered btwn Bermuda and the Carolina Coast will maintain a gentle to moderate easterly breeze acrs the lcl Atlc waters.
943 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 High pressure will build toward the region today and crest over Maine late tonight. A weak area of low pressure will cross the area Friday night.
/ISSUED 400 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ Early morning Southeast Texas temperatures are cool in the wake of yesterday's cold front with upper 30s to lower 40s north, upper 40s to lower 50s central and lower 60s near the coast. With a persistent southwest aloft for the next several days, expect to see periods of showers and thunderstorms with the higher rain chances up north and the lower rain chances closer to the coast.
A period of relatively higher ceilings possible over western AR before additional rain moves into the area this afternoon, by which time all areas will see temperatures above freezing. Area radars/observations confirm the presence of some freezing drizzle from portions of central OK into northeast OK, with the activity lifting to the northeast. Suspect that the shallow cold air will hang around for several more hours, enough to warrant extending the winter weather advisory through the morning hours with temps eventually rising above freezing toward noon.
Light mixed precipitation of light freezing rain, sleet and possible light snow to occur this morning along and north of I-72 and eventually change to light rain during mid/late morning from south to north. Radar mosaic shows main area of rain has shifts east of IL by 4 am while scattered to numerous light rain showers were over central IL, including light freezing rain and sleet mixed in from I-72 north. The freezing line was as far south as a Litchfield to Taylorville to Decatur to Gibson City line, with temperatures around 30F over northern CWA.
Observations to our south in Kansas has indicated a wintry mix of freezing drizzle/freezing rain and snow. Areas north of the precipitation band this morning may see a lull/break from precipitation for a time or a period light freezing drizzle or flurries. Amounts are complicated given the wintry mix, as more snow vs freezing precip would lead to higher snow amounts, and more freezing precip than snow would lead to lesser snow and higher potential for icing. The wintry weather ends west to east during the evening as the mid level trough departs. Friday will see a break in the weather ahead of the main western upper trough which will be edging into the Rockies.
trough will only gradually translate east through the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL 925 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 This morning, a dome of high pressure continues to be centered over the western Atlantic, northeast of the region. As a result, the Keys are in a region of deep easterly flow to the south of the ridge axis. GOES-16 total precipitable water imagery this morning indicates a pronounced pool of moisture in the lower atmosphere over the region, with the Key West 12Z sounding showing PW near 1.
There will be patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle this morning, with showers/isolated thunderstorms increasing from the south and southwest this afternoon and tonight. Toward the Missouri border, temperatures are at/a little below freezing, so patchy freezing drizzle could occur.
A deepening trof to the west of the area will induce divergent flow over the area today, helping to pull a surface front with reinforcing cold air into the area this afternoon. Split the difference about 60/40 toward the American models which puts temperatures 3 to 5 degrees cooler than previous forecast. Upper trof to the west today, slides east into the area Friday.
North winds behind the front have brought much cooler temperatures, currently in the upper 40s for the ranchlands and in the 50s along the river. As the front passes back through, it will interact with another midlevel impulse riding around the bottom of the broad upper trough along the Rockies.
506 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 /12Z TAFS/ Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will be possible at all sites this morning, with rain chances decreasing by late morning. Freezing Rain or Sleet. The potential for freezing rain or sleet will continue, across much of West Central Texas, until noon today. With surface temperatures remaining below freezing, where we currently have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect, until around noon today, we extended our advisory in time to expire at noon.
Overnight, will likely see LIFR conditions in either CIGS and/or VSBYS with the isentropic pattern and the boundary moving north as a warm front. Normally the HiRes models will handle these cold air masses a bit better than the other synoptic models, but this cold air mass is rather thin and thus we could get much warmer than these HiRes models are showing (mainly tonight but especially on Friday). Temperature forecast for today mainly using higher resolution models, then blending the warmer models by late Friday morning as the boundary moves north.
Freezing Rain or Sleet. The potential for freezing rain or sleet will continue, across much of West Central Texas, until noon today. With surface temperatures remaining below freezing, where we currently have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect, until around noon today, we extended our advisory in time to expire at noon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 61 79 60 / 30 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 58 77 59 / 20 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 75 59 78 59 / 40 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 55 77 54 / 20 20 10 20.
504 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 Low pressure passing south of the area will cause rain to move off to the east by this afternoon. Meanwhile temperatures across the far northern part of the forecast area have been fairly steady with only a few sites reporting readings at or below freezing. In addition, it appears that road temperatures are remaining above freezing. This would minimize impacts of freezing rain except on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. Have trimmed a few counties from the winter weather advisory where temperatures are expected to remain above freezing. More widespread precipitation will move out of the area with the low level jet. As this happens, a warm front will then be able to lift across the area late tonight into Friday morning. A cold front will quickly follow in the afternoon.
Mild temperatures with muggy conditions will continue tonight with mins in the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies.
/Issued 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/ Broad scale upper trough continues to slowly move east and into the southern plains. with the highest chances/areal coverage expected on Saturday as the upper low draws closer to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
910 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 A weal cold front will move through the area this evening. Weak high pressure will remain in place through Saturday night.
928 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather through Saturday, bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area.
928 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2017 Weak high pressure will build into central NC through Saturday, then drift offshore Saturday night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 90 66 84 / 10 20 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 87 64 84 / 10 10 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 61 88 62 85 / 10 10 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 86 57 83 / 10 10 10 50.
Pressure rises in the wake of the trough producing an hour or two of gusty winds from the west/northwest, which should wind down over the next couple of hours. Currently, upper ridge axis moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley ahead of a mid level S/WV over the Western Dakotas. Ahead of the trough, thermal ridge extending north with 29-31C 925MB temperatures poking northward from far south central ND north-northeast into the Turtle Mountain region. Also accompanying the warm air is a very moist airmass with sfc dewpoint temperatures into the lower 60s.
This activity is likely attributed to some weak ridge riding energy diving ese and attendant low level warm advection. Wouldn't be too surprised to see coverage trend toward low end scattered by morning into eastern IA coincident with arrival of MN ridge riding energy. 18Z surface data has an inferred warm front, based on moisture, running from southern Illinois northwest into north central Iowa. Temperatures will be warmer than normal. The Highway 20 corridor from Dubuque to Freeport remains in the day 2 marginal risk area, and the severe risk looks minimal.
1131 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017 A weak warm front oriented roughly north to south just west of the Mississippi River will remain nearly stationary through rest of today.
857 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 A warm front crosses Saturday.
This activity should remain mostly north and west of the TAF sites but will need to monitor KAUS and KDRT that will have the higher risk of TSRA/SHRA activity overnight through early to mid-Saturday morning. Weather mention for KAUS/DRT TAFs was not included at this time given the isolated TSRA nature in the next 6 hours and the lower confidence in then 06-12Z period. The upper level trough will sharpen and move east on Saturday and by afternoon and evening the axis will stretch from Oklahoma south into West Central Texas and the Big Bend.
Do not think at this point that the activity will be severe late tonight, but will have to watch in case the low level jet gets going more than expected. A weaker e-w boundary extends from the low along the ND/SD border then se to near RST. Main wave pushing across e MT/WY with a weaker impulse under the ridge axis over the central dakotas border region.
The low clouds and even areas of fog should continue into mid to late Saturday morning before clouds scatter and VFR returns.
1047 PM MDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak cold front now from central ND through western SD to southeast WY. The weekend looks to be dry and warm as ridge rebuilds over the region.
A mid level ridge and weak surface flow will persist through Saturday.
827 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Low pressure will meander over the maritimes tonight through Saturday.
1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure moving slowly across the Ohio Valley will provide dry weather through Saturday.
Surface ridging into the Tennessee Valley will keep winds mainly light through the forecast.
This activity is likely attributed to some weak ridge riding energy diving ese and attendant low level warm advection. Wouldn't be surprised to see coverage trend toward low end scattered by morning into northern IL coincident with arrival of MN ridge riding energy. 18Z surface data has an inferred warm front, based on moisture, running from southern Illinois northwest into north central Iowa. Temperatures will be warmer than normal. The Highway 20 corridor from Dubuque to Freeport remains in the day 2 marginal risk area, and the severe risk looks minimal.
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017 A weak warm front oriented roughly north to south just west of the Mississippi River will remain nearly stationary through rest of today.
1218 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Quiet and warm weather can be expected today with high pressure.
An upper trough will advance into the high plains tonight with height falls and steepening lapse rates. On Saturday, the front just southeast of the area will stall out as the upper trough washes out and focuses over the western Great Lakes.
748 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure moving slowly across the Ohio Valley will provide dry weather through Saturday.
Current forecast temperatures on track and not much cooling left as dewpoints are expected to hold in the lower 70s. /issued 241 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/ Wx map showing weak sfc trof over Western Gulf, with weak high pressure over the SE United States, keeping an east to southeast flow over the region. First, a slow moving upper level low/disturbance over Texas will continue to only drift east over the weekend.
949 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to build across the region into Saturday.
23z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky - centered just east of the area. Temperatures are running in the upper 70s and lower 80s most places - though down to the upper 60s already in the deeper valleys - with comfortable humidity levels from dewpoints varying from the mid 40s northwest to the low and mid 50s southeast. This is a good set up for a ridge to valley temperature split to develop later this evening as the inversion takes shape. Have incorporated this into the forecast using the co-op MOS as a guide to the lowest possible values in the sheltered valleys.
Training of cells will also need to be monitored for the threat of Flash Flooding, given that the steering flow in place isn't exceptionally strong (despite the nearing cold front).
The better chance for a line of storms will be overnight Saturday night along a cold front. Ceilings should be VFR until the cold front reaches us.
A broad upper trough moving into the Texas Panhandle through Saturday places eastern Texas in a more favorable position to experience the passage of weak disturbances caught up within the mid to upper southwesterly flow pattern. with the high theta e axis moving up from the Matagorda Bay region in the morning into the western and central CWA by tomorrow afternoon.
An approaching low pressure trough will bring slightly cooler weather to the area over the weekend. Afternoon highs were slightly warmer than normal in most locations. Only patchy low clouds have developed in coastal areas thus far this evening, and a few high clouds associated with a weak upper trough offshore have been drifting overhead. As this upper trough gradually approaches the coast over the next 24-36 hours, look for an increase in onshore flow and deepening of the marine layer.
941 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure will allow for dry weather through at least Saturday night.
/Issued 257 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/ In the upper levels a positively tilted trough stretched from northwest Mexico into the south central plains. A northern stream trough was located across Montana and Wyoming. A piece of the northern upper level trough is expected to move southward through eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon and then through the panhandles Saturday night. This small upper level disturbance may be enough to trigger a better chance of showers and thunderstorms initially across the northwest CWA and then spreading southeast with time as the short wave trough moves south. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will still be there for the southeast half of the CWA since this area will be closest to the dynamics of the positively tilted trough.
High pressure will shift further east of the area tonight.
Dewpoints are running slightly warmer than expected, and locations that received rainfall today, might see light fog develop before sunrise.
Surface and upper ridge are the dominant features influencing Middle Tennessee's weather this Friday evening.
A weak upper low circulation will meander into Texas and Oklahoma through Saturday as a ridge builds to our west. This will allow showers and storms to continue developing over the higher terrain as well as the central and east.
1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Warmer weather has returned to the area as upper-level ridging builds into the central Plains. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates 500mb ridge extending from central KS through central NE/eastern SD/eastern ND and into MB. Upstream trough was located from MC/southern AB into northwest MT. The 850mb ridge had drifted eastward toward the MS and OH river valley areas, leaving the central US in southwesterly flow and with slowly increasing dewpoints.
747 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight followed by another weak frontal passage on Saturday.
755 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky - centered just east of the area. Temperatures are running in the upper 70s and lower 80s most places - though down to the upper 60s already in the deeper valleys - with comfortable humidity levels from dewpoints varying from the mid 40s northwest to the low and mid 50s southeast. This is a good set up for a ridge to valley temperature split to develop later this evening as the inversion takes shape. Have incorporated this into the forecast using the co-op MOS as a guide to the lowest possible values in the sheltered valleys.
1042 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Moisture ahead of a weak trough will remain mainly south and east of the forecast area through Saturday.
701 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to build across the region into Saturday.
Under mostly cloudy skies and light east winds, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a broad western Atlantic ridge extends across the Sunshine State, resulting in mostly east winds of 10 knots or less except slightly higher on the Straits of Florida. This dry layer coincides with a western Atlantic ridge lying across our region. We fail to see support for these prognostics based on available forecast soundings, which indicate warm and dry air will persist in the lower levels.
/issued 906 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/ MCS associated with impulses on the downstream of the upper low over N TX continues to track ewd. Muggy conditions will continue through the weekend along with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms as a broad upper level trough continues to advance eastward out of New Mexico.
Weak high pressure this evening will give way to the tail end of a system moving into southern B.
751 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure will continue to cause fair weather across our area through tonight.
730 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure will continue to cause fair weather across our area through tonight.
/issued 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/ Short Term (Now through Saturday): A low pressure trough in the mid and upper level atmosphere over Northwest Mexico and U. Best moisture associated with the upper trough looks to remain north of Deep South Texas with trough orientation keeping a warmer and drier Westerly flow aloft AOA 700mb. At the surface and through the boundary layer, moisture charts continue to show low level moisture (mean RH 70%)AOB 800mb persisting and with Deep South TX in between the trough to the north and the ridge to the south a light ENE-ESE flow is expected tonight through Saturday. With the latest model package shows less than 20 percent for all inland areas will just paint the CWA with broad brush 20 percent to cover the lower uncertainty.
715 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure will allow for dry weather through at least Saturday night.
619 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Broad ridging across the western and central US is maintaining a summertime precipitation pattern across the region through the weekend.
1246 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight followed by another weak frontal passage on Saturday.
728 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2017 Weak high pressure will build into central NC through Saturday, then drift offshore Saturday night.
Will include TSRA at most terminals Saturday as more will develop under a slow moving upper low.
Mostly clear skies will persist overnight as high pressure remains in control of the weather across Middle Tennessee. Expect mainly light winds tonight and tomorrow as the ridge axis remains close by.
725 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 A warm front crosses Saturday.
520 PM MDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak cold front now from central ND through western SD to southeast WY. The weekend looks to be dry and warm as ridge rebuilds over the region.
904 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday offering sunshine and warm weather.
Secondary trof moving through eastern zones with drier air in behind it.
1032 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight followed by another weak frontal passage on Saturday.
1216 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A trough of low pressure will remain over the area through Saturday.
/issued 241 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/ Wx map showing weak sfc trof over Western Gulf, with weak high pressure over the SE United States, keeping an east to southeast flow over the region. First, a slow moving upper level low/disturbance over Texas will continue to only drift east over the weekend.
906 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017 MCS associated with impulses on the downstream of the upper low over N TX continues to track ewd. Muggy conditions will continue through the weekend along with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms as a broad upper level trough continues to advance eastward out of New Mexico.
Sfc temp forecasts have also trended warmer reducing the amount of icing. As precip ends from northwest to southeast Tuesday night, there is a chance that the rain will turn to freezing rain for a couple hours as the surface temps drop before the dry air arrives.
Warm front lifting north through the area with some showers breaking out across northern sections this morning. Longwave trough digging into the western U. pumps up the upper ridge over the SE U. Northeast Arkansas stands the best chance of rain during this period as that area will be on the periphery of the ridge.
Stout deep layer high pressure centered offshore the eastern seaboard is producing a low-mid level east to southeast wind flow. Quite strong high pressure over the Atlantic with an axis extending into the southeast U.
The highs for this period expected to stay below freezing with overnight lows reaching the single digits for most of the region.