Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 241 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Large H5 ridge dominating the southern US is currently centered roughly over far East Texas. Models are consistent with continuing to slighlty shift the ridge westward to central Texas, keeping the strong and subsident weather regime in place for the state. With no moisture changes forecast with the ridge during the next 36 hours, will continue with the persistent forecast of hot and more hot. The lack of moisture will also result in a lack of rainfall, with only a few clouds able to bubble up under the ridge right along the seabreeze tomorrow.
1234 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 The area will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough early this week. High pressure will then become suppressed farther to the south which could allow a weak cold front to approach from the north by the middle part of the week. Regardless, an inland trough will likely linger through the latter part of the week.
Temperatures cool, especially inland, late this week and into the weekend as an upper level trough approaches the region. The stratus deck sits under a 2000 foot marine layer and is poised to move inland tonight trough coastal gaps and valleys. Conditions will see little to no change through midweek as high pressure remains in control across the district and a deep marine layer persists along the coast. Cooler conditions are forecast for the second half of the work week as an upper level low drops down from the Pacific Northwest. This upper level system will introduce a cooler airmass to the region allowing temperatures to drop to seasonal averages. Models indicate a weak upper level low currently located at approx. 35N 135W is progged to ride in on the coat tails of the upper low mentioned above.
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough will cross the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states through Tuesday. An associated surface cold front will settle south through VA Tuesday and through NC Tuesday night.
The eastern Tennessee Valley remains downstream of weak impulses in northwest to southeast flow around upper level trough that lies across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states.
/Tuesday through Monday/ The thunderstorm complex forecast for tonight will depart to the east on Tuesday morning, in its wake pushing a weak trough/outflow boundary down toward southern Iowa or even northern Missouri, while the weak synoptic cool front remains to our northwest across Siouxland. This regime will suppress temperatures a bit north of the trough/outflow boundary, but even there diurnal heating should allow for decent recovery with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
High pressure has dropped south across the region and is continuing to provide for clear skies and dry conditions. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Expect zonal flow tonight over Northeast Montana as the low in northern Saskatchewan moves into Manitoba. That along with the local area remaining on the cool side of the boundary between the hot air-mass to the south and the cooler air- mass to the north will bring about a slightly cooler than normal night. For Tuesday the next low nudging up against the Washington/BC coast will pinch up a narrow ridge over Montana. This will make the thermal boundary act as a warm front, increasing temperatures back above normal. With increasing instability from the warm front, evening and late night thunderstorms are expected.
A cold front will approach the two state area and a few showers are possible over the Washington cascade crest toward morning. Meanwhile a low pressure system moving into the pacific northwest will tighten pressure gradients and wind gusts to 30 kts is possible especially at taf sites kdls.
/00z Update/ VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the forecast period with upper level high pressure continuing to build across the region. A 594 dm high pressure center sits comfortably over East Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. with the Hill Country just a couple degrees cooler.
1247 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Weak low pressure south of New England will gradually drift out to sea tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
Weak ridging aloft will support continued diurnal convection across the area with thunderstorms expected daily. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms with highs in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure dominates the forecast with scattered thunderstorms at night and isolated storms during the day.
Our heat advisory will continue for now with highs edging upwards a bit under the building mid level ridge. Upper level ridging should suppress cu across much of our region on Tuesday but did make mention of a growing cu field at the LFK/MLU/ELD and SHV terminal locations. /issued 404 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Upper level ridge axis firmly anchored across the region today has resulted in strong subsidence and soaring temperatures in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. The ridge has kept a lid on convection thus far today with only a few stray showers along the MS delta.
This will be near a 850-700 mb shear axis and also where the highest PWATs will be, as well as lingering boundaries. Microburst parameters overall remain in the low category, but given the instability and expected tall updrafts a few strong storms will be possible. 05 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s. This will be near a 850-700 mb shear axis and also where the highest PWATs will be, as well as lingering boundaries. Microburst parameters overall remain in the low category, but given the instability and expected tall updrafts a few strong storms will be possible.
826 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Drier subsident mid level air on the western side of an upper level low over the Atlantic offshore the southeast U.
05 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s. This will be near a 850-700 mb shear axis and also where the highest PWATs will be, as well as lingering boundaries. Microburst parameters overall remain in the low category, but given the instability and expected tall updrafts a few strong storms will be possible.
1041 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 A weak upper level disturbance will push south of the area this evening as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes.
Our heat advisory will continue for now with highs edging upwards a bit under the building mid level ridge.
Later tonight the main action with a more widespread pattern of convection will occur as storms developing in association with the Ohio Valley upper level trough move into the eastern Tennessee Valley from southeast KY and middle TN.
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Latest subjective surface analysis shows fairly tight gradient across eastern Nebraska between a broad area of low pressure across the western Plains and high pressure across the Great Lakes. a low pressure trough extends from north central South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon.
747 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 A weak upper level disturbance will push south of the area this evening as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes.
Think that as the activity propagates northward and gets closer to the low level ridge axis and drier air aloft, it will diminish. Ridge axis near to a little north of Canaveral is providing an east/southeast wind flow.
627 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will keep subsidence over the region and VFR conditions at all TAF sites through Tuesday evening. There is a weak upper low above 300mb centered over the region but this feature will have little impact with respect to precipitation as strong subsidence prevails beneath the 500mb ridging.
An upper level trof will remain across the region overnight, with partly/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area. However, locally cooler mid to upper 40s are possible across northwest areas. The upper trof moves east of the state on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will once again be well into the 70s to near 80 degrees but a bit cooler along the immediate coast.
639 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Low pressure will slide through Nebraska overnight with warm front lifting northward across the CWA as southerly winds increase. This warm front should act as focus of scattered thunderstorms, mainly this evening between 00-06z. Later in the evening, the low level jet will increase across northwest Iowa leading to increased shear and lingering CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. As the low exits the area to the east on Tuesday, northerly winds will bring in some drier air bringing decreasing clouds through the day. The extra sunshine and better mixing should allow for warmer daytime temperatures than today, with highs reaching 85 to 90. No worries for heat headlines at this time since the western areas where it will get warmer will also be seeing dewpoints 10-15 degrees lower than areas to the east.
1152 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Relatively stagnant pattern with forecast area on edge of active periphery of upper ridge.
818 PM PDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will keep temperatures near normal through mid week.
850 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Bermuda high pressure will maintain humid conditions across the area through midweek, sparking scattered thunderstorms.
1055 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 A persistent upper level low pressure system will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon and this evening, some with brief heavy rain.
754 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 A persistent upper level low pressure system will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon and this evening, some with brief heavy rain.
Tomorrow, winds increase out of the southeast ahead of a developing lee side trough. High pressure will remain in place over the area, with clear skies and temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to near 60. Quiet weather is in store for tonight with upper ridging and a dry airmass in place. The ridge shifts E during Tue. The upper low seen on water vapor imagery off the S BC coast this afternoon, moves into NW MT by 12Z Wed.
829 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 The area will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough early this week. High pressure will then become suppressed farther to the south which could allow a weak cold front to approach from the north by the middle part of the week. Regardless, an inland trough will likely linger through the latter part of the week.
Windspeeds are decreasing as sunset approaches, but promise to increase tomorrow as an upper level low moves toward the area and pushes a dry cold front through the region. Tuesday a dry cold front will move over the area with increasing westerly winds at the surface and aloft. Dry southwesterly flow aloft over our CWA ahead of approaching upper low currently located 50/135 in the north Pacific. The upper low will move inland across Washington Tuesday and into northern Idaho Tuesday night. Dry surface cold front will pass through eastern Oregon Tuesday afternoon and southwestern Idaho Tuesday evening.
857 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Weak low pressure south of New England will gradually drift out to sea tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
/ISSUED / An upper level high pressure ridge centered over SE Texas will drift westward over the next several days. The ridge will keep hot and mainly dry conditions across the area through the end of the work week. However, as the center of the high works its way slightly west of the area, a deep layer easterly flow may help the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the latter part of the week.
950 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 The area will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough early this week. High pressure will then become suppressed farther to the south which could allow a weak cold front to approach from the north by the middle part of the week. Regardless, an inland trough will likely linger through the latter part of the week.
It's another typically hot and muggy summer afternoon across the Mid State, with temperatures ranging from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
A low pressure system offshore will move across the region during the day Tuesday for cool and unsettled conditions. This system will move east of the area Tuesday night and will be followed by high pressure aloft.
1039 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Currently - Accelerating flow and increasing low level flow arriving on the southern periphery of a ridge extending across the Florida Peninsula, has set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain to our north, maintaining a moderate to fresh easterly across the Florida Keys. A ridge across the Florida Peninsula has brought moderate to fresh east breezes across Florida Keys waters.
Temperatures will stay steady or even rise a degree or two in most locations over the next couple hours before falling mainly into the lower 70s by daybreak.
An upper level ridge will build in during the period, with clear to mostly clear sky other than the early clouds north. Freezing temperatures can be expected again across parts of the area especially north and in SW NC valley areas, but the freeze program has not started yet so no freeze warnings issued.
Northeast Montana begins the day under a ridge of high pressure with all winds in the vertical wind profile from the southwest. The southwest upper flow will be based on the ridge axis, surprisingly, reaching into Hudson Bay, while a trough/storm system churns off the Pac-NW and Western Canada coasts. The weak cold frontal boundary begins to move into the local region tonight, generating rain, then snow showers over the western counties, then the Northern Tier before Sunday morning. By Sunday morning, the base of the Pacific trough will have descended south to the coast of central California, where it will pick up additional moisture, ejecting it northeast into the broad area of the Great Basin, and the Northern and Central Rockies.
High pressure will begin to shift east on Saturday ahead of an area of low pressure that will bring gusty winds to the area through the weekend.
Broad ridging aloft will extend across the Great Lakes, with a potent wave breaking along the Pacific Northwest coastline. Low to mid level warm advection will occur on southerly winds with the surface warm front pushing north through the area. A bit of drizzle isn't out of the question either as the low-levels saturate.
354 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 An upper trough is over northern Mexico west of the CWA putting the area under south to southwest flow aloft. This trough has resulted in an increase in upper lift and low-level moisture is good across southern and eastern portions of the area. There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain due to mid-level lapse rates near 7 degrees C/km.
A cold front will pass Idaho Falls and Pocatello around 5-6 pm Sunday.
Have high pressure crossing the region, providing lightening winds, but also a good drop in temperatures. Saturday night upper level ridging will work into the region from the west bringing warmer air. As a result Sat night low temps will be warmer than tonight.
248 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Surface warm front had lifted north of all but the far NE corner of the CWA (Brown County) by 09Z per surface obs and GOES-16 IR imagery. Winds looks to remain in the 10 to 20 kt range overnight, further aiding in keeping low temperatures on the higher side. The main story for Sunday and Sunday night remains the low level moisture advection. While moisture will be on the increase, chances for measurable precip don't appear to be to good as the low level moisture return remains capped by an elevated mixed layer and there is little forcing progged to break the cap. With this in mind, have kept highs across eastern portions of the forecast area in the lower and middle 60s.
212 AM MST Sat Mar 4 2017 09z surface analysis had warm front from central ND into eastern NE with a lee trough from central MT into eastern CO. Lee trough supported by low level warm air advection under building upper ridge aloft. Gusty south to southwest winds over portions of northeast WY into the higher terrain of the Black Hills noted. Today through Sunday afternoon, upper ridge will shift into the Midwest as southwest flow aloft develops over the CWA ahead of upper trough now moving onto the northwest US coast. Warm air advection supports peak thermal ridge for Sunday. Sunday night, upper trough approaches with close-off 500mb low developing over northwest SD late. Low will pull cold front into CWA late.
The low level gradient remains similar going into tomorrow so we will maintain a strong breeze out of the south, however mixing to 900-850mb with 850mb temperatures between +6 and +10C will allow for temperatures to top out in the 50s and 60s for most of the area.
413 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Strong high pressure then settles over the Mid Atlantic states through Sunday.
Overall, it will be a warm and windy weekend w/ some ridging aloft and a strong jet overhead. The strongest winds will most likely be confined to areas along/west of I-25 through Sunday, w/ warm temps over the high plains. A strong, fast- moving upper trough arrives for Sunday night with rain changing to snow as a cold front blasts across the region.
High pressure will shift east this weekend ahead of a cold Pacific storm.
224 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Some upper ridging was located across the Plains early this morning with a low level jet situated from the Plains into the mid MS valley. The pressure gradient will tighten up over the western half of the CWA with low pressure to the west and a high to the east.
1022 PM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 Latest upper analysis shows a ridge building over the region as an upper trough develops off the coast of British Columbia. At the surface, the lee side trough is deepening to the east of the northern Rockies as warmer air moves in aloft. Tonight into Saturday the warm front will push east of forecast area as the upper ridge crosses the plains. Gusty winds will continue over northeastern Wyoming and the higher elevations of the Black Hills through Saturday afternoon given deep mixing potential and 2-4mb/3hr pressure falls to our east. Temperatures will be 10-20F warmer than average on Saturday. Continued southwesterly flow aloft Sunday and the peaking thermal ridge will be over the area with temperatures 15-25F above average.
High pressure continues to move off to the east. High pressure will be over eastern Ontario Sat afternoon with increasing Southerly winds to 10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph over central IL along with more sunshine bringing milder spring like temps back to the area. Highs Saturday afternoon range from the lower 50s by Danville, to 60-65F from Macomb and Springfield sw.
328 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Surface winds are light and variable early this morning with high pressure over the Ohio Valley. As high pressure slides east today, a 5-10 mph southeast wind will develop, gradually veering southerly later in the day. Quiet weather continues through Sunday with upper level ridging building through the region.
Lower valleys including the lower Snake Plain will see light precip before midnight with another chance early Saturday morning with passage of upper jet energy, though areas along the foothills stand the best chance.
Farther south and west, increasing cloud cover should keep temps cooler than today, so humidity levels stay above critical levels. Low level moisture should then begin to surge north Sat night into Sunday as weakened remnants of upper low currently over Gulf of California moves across Texas. Widespread clouds cover will keep temps a bit cooler for Sunday with much higher RH, though winds will remain gusty out of the south.
940 PM PST Fri Mar 3 2017 The weather will turn cooler over the weekend as a low pressure trough moves across California.
An advancing upper level ridge will closely follow this wave passage into Saturday so there will be little change in our overall regime. Warm advection will continue for the most part with a warm front setting up through the heart of Iowa later in the day.
233 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Arctic high pressure will build over the forecast area this morning and slowly shift east this afternoon into tonight. The proximity of this high pressure will maintain chilly conditions through the day, especially considering temperatures will begin the day in the single digits to lower/mid teens. In fact, after bottoming out at or shortly after midnight, temperature may very will be steady to slowly rising as upper level cloudiness slips over upper ridging from developing low pressure to the west. So, while the entire area will see milder weather, temperatures by afternoon will range from near 40 over the Thumb to 50 southwest of metro Detroit with much of the area in the lower/mid 40s.
359 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Cold high pressure will extend across the eastern U. High pressure will continue to ridge Swd along the Middle Atlantic coast, beneath a progressive ridge aloft forecast to build Ewd from the MS Valley. It will consequently remain cool and dry, with temperatures similar to, or slightly milder than those of Sat, owing to modification of the high.
125 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Cold high pressure will extend across the eastern U. The winds will be noticeably less as the high pressure will bring light winds 10 mph or less through the day. The leading edge of the air mass change or the cold front is forecast to arrive Saturday evening. Sunny and chilly conditions are expected Sunday with the strong high pressure extending down the eastern seaboard into Florida.
1238 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure will build east of the region tonight. A band of light snow will develop late tonight into Saturday morning ahead of a northward advancing warm front.
This is the result of increasing winds aloft and low pressure tracking across Srn Canada. Strong winds aloft appear to hold a sfc trof stationary across Wrn Neb which will produce light sfc winds.
Broadening out just a bit, water vapor imagery this afternoon continuing to show our region under the influence of northwest flow aloft, as weak ridging begins to move/build across the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains. Meanwhile further west, deep upper troughing is expected to begin moving into the Pacific Northwest, with strengthening zonal flow anticipated downstream across the Central Rockies tonight. What does this all mean for us? Well, strengthening southerly winds as pressure falls overspread the Plains which will result in the northward lifting of a warm front over our region early Saturday morning. This will lead to noticeably warmer temperatures on Saturday with the gusty southwest winds as already alluded to above. This may result in increased cloud cover as compared to Saturday, with the possibility of slightly cooler temps despite the continuation of warm air advection.
1145 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 For the 04/06z TAFs, deep layer moisture will gradually increase from the top down ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Surface lee trof well established across eastern CO with breezy winds and Red Flag conditions materializing across Baca County. West coast upper trof will push inland on Sunday and winds aloft really increase in earnest through this period.
1231 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure will build into the area promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. Today: Temperatures should rise above freezing by 9 am. A slightly cooler airmass will push into the area as dry high pressure moves closer to the region. Temperatures tonight falling back down to around freezing. Moderating temperatures Sunday as upper trough moves off the east coast and ridge builds east from the southern Plains.