Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the 850 mb ridge shifts to the east tonight and the pressure gradient tightens, winds will shift to the south. Depending on where the ridge sets up overnight, we can see a wide range of temperatures ranging from the upper 30's in our western CWA to the low 20s and upper teens in our eastern and northeastern counties.
Elsewhere, clear skies prevail over much of the region with the low cloud deck remaining offshore. Temperatures are forecast to warm slightly through late in the week with very little change in day-to-day weather conditions as high pressure builds over central and southern California. With the position of the ridge, the warmest daytime temperatures will occur over the Central Coast where lower/middle 70s will be possible late in the week. The ridge of high pressure in this solution would hold as the dominate weather feature and keep the storm track well offshore.
900 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Extended the Winter Weather Advisory until Noon due to icy roads, including bridges and overpasses, as the main impact and temperatures still in the lower to mid 20s. /issued 347 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/ (Today and tonight) A Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM for the ongoing freezing drizzle. These areas of freezing drizzle and fog will continue to persist over the next few hours with temperatures right at or just below freezing in most areas along and north of Interstate 10. The cold temperatures will continue though with high temperatures in the low to mid 30s expected for this afternoon.
in north Mississippi the temperatures are near 32 degrees with some showers producing light freezing rain or sleet. therefore have lowered high temperatures today into the low to mid 20s, except over north Mississippi where they should still see some 30s. Likewise tomorrow will see warmer temperatures with less cold air advection during the day. Sunny skies will bring highs to the low to upper 30s.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep the air mass mild for the remainder of the week. Cooler weather is expected this weekend as a weak cold front moves across the region, but temperatures will stay above normal.
524 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Coldest temperatures of the season are close to, if not at record territory this morning as a 1044mb high pressure ridge axis slides directly overhead.
Mid to high level cloud cover continues across southeast Arizona this morning which is resulting in temperatures this morning being warmer than yesterday morning. An upper level trof, seen nicely on water vapor imagery, extending from western Wyoming to s-central California, will sweep these high clouds out of the area later today. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday. The upper air pattern through the end of the week will be marked by high pressure centered off southern California, with ridge axis extending east across the desert southwest, and an upper level low west of southern Baja California. The current high cloud cover is associated with the upper low.
Most of the early morning light snow and freezing drizzle likewise should diminish by later this morning. /issued 422 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/ West Texas will remain under NW flow aloft through the weekend thanks to a stubborn upper level trough currently stretched from the north central USA to the East Coast. At the beginning of the week flow aloft becomes more northerly as the upper level pattern begins to modify and a large amplitude ridge moves on shore from the Pacific. The drizzle/freezing drizzle and snow that plagued the area yesterday and early this morning should start to diminish late this morning into the afternoon as lift diminishes and drier air takes over.
A wave of low pressure moving across Se Ga will produce occasional light rain there through most of the morning with rain tapering off this afternoon as the wave moves offshore. Another wave of low pressure moving in from the central Gulf of Mexico will bring scattered areas rain across northeast and north central Florida beginning late this afternoon and evening. Conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR by around 18Z this afternoon and to IFR by late afternoon and early eve as a wave of low pressure tracks towards the area.
505 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a narrow ridge extending from west to east over the southern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, Bahamas, and subtropical western North Atlantic Ocean. A broadly cyclonic west-northwesterly flow regime prevails north of this ridge, over the continental United States. At the surface, an arctic air mass is oozing southward over the north-central United States, with an associated anticyclone centered over the Missouri River Valley. Much of the subtropical western North Atlantic and Gulf basin contain remnants of the last several orphaned cold fronts, in the form of mesoscale moisture plumes and convergence zones caught up in the easterlies. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 70s, with dewpoint temperatures near 70F.
High pressure will remain over the area for the next several days. Otherwise high pressure aloft will dominate the weather through the end of the week. The pattern is a rex block with a ridge off the CA coast and an upper low off the Baja coast.
1025 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Weak frontal trof stalled over the NE GOMex/N FL Peninsula will remain in place thru sunset as a strong high pres ridge centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes drifts slowly eastward. Weak inverted trof over the lcl Atlc will maintain a light to gentle northerly breeze thru late aftn, bcmg gentle to moderate toward sunset as a frontal boundary extending from the NE GOMex to the NC Outer Banks presses down the peninsula.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will maintain a dry and mild west-northwest flow across much of Utah over the next several days.
Freezing fog will also continue to affect most terminals this morning, lowering vis to around 2-3SM. In addition, some patchy areas of light freezing drizzle/rain will occasionally affect INK, MAF and FST through the early morning hours.
501 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Strong high pressure will be centered northwest and north of the forecast area through Thursday night. The high will direct cold air into the region. An area of low pressure along the front will bring light rain to much of the area this morning. Another low may bring light precipitation to the southeast section of the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night with freezing rain possible Thursday night.
IFR to LIFR ceilings and moderate north winds prevail across deep south Texas this morning in the wake of a cold front. /issued 430 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A cold front currently extending from near Rio Grande City to McAllen to Harlingen, will continue to push south and move off the lower Texas coast by dawn. High temperatures Thursday will struggle to reach the low to mid 50s as weak cold air advection continues.
747 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST and included areas to the west and south as freezing drizzle and fog continues to result in icy roads. Freezing fog will also continue to affect most terminals this morning, lowering vis to around 2-3SM. In addition, some patchy areas of light freezing drizzle/rain will occasionally affect INK, MAF and FST through the early morning hours.
Complex weather situation is unfolding across the area as warmer air is trying to work into the region and displace the cold surface based air entrenched over the Columbia Basin and adjacent lowlands. However there is already evidence that warmer air aloft is overspreading the area so some light freezing rain will be possible mainly over the Blue Mountain Foothills region and the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon. High temperatures south of the foothills will be above freezing and north of the foothills will be in the 20s. High temperatures on Thursday may rise above freezing into extreme southern Washington.
Moisture within the flow will result in light snow across northern portions of the forecast area, including the higher elevations of Baker County and the West Central Idaho Mountains. Precipitation starts off in our far northern zones, mostly for the higher elevations.
Wheatland-Chugwater will likely begin increasing once lee-trof slides east and mixing ensues 8-11A. Will leave the High Wind Warnings unchanged. Temperatures will be MUCH warmer today as the arctic air mass retreats, allowing highs to climb into the 30s at most locales.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 21 44 26 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 18 39 22 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 18 39 21 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 12 36 15 / 0 0 0 10.
North to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with occasional higher gusts can be expected today as high pressure builds into the region from the north. Overall trends indicate that temperatures will likely remain in the 40s over most interior areas today (perhaps around 40 to the lower 40s over the northwest), while locations near the immediate coast could remain around 50 to the lower 50s.
The southwest flow is bringing a warmer and moist air mass over the shallow cold layer, with the result being light rain that radar is depicting across the forecast area.
929 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 A layer of stratocumulus is hanging over the lower Keys, but otherwise clear skies over the middle and upper Keys. A few showers are expected this evening as sufficient moisture in the lower boundary layer combined with nocturnal marine boundary layer instability should result in a favorable environment in the straits.
Otherwise, temperatures will be seasonable along the coast, with warmer than normal daytime highs expected over the interior.
/issued 347 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/ (Today and tonight) A Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM for the ongoing freezing drizzle. These areas of freezing drizzle and fog will continue to persist over the next few hours with temperatures right at or just below freezing in most areas along and north of Interstate 10. The cold temperatures will continue though with high temperatures in the low to mid 30s expected for this afternoon.
422 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 West Texas will remain under NW flow aloft through the weekend thanks to a stubborn upper level trough currently stretched from the north central USA to the East Coast. At the beginning of the week flow aloft becomes more northerly as the upper level pattern begins to modify and a large amplitude ridge moves on shore from the Pacific. The drizzle/freezing drizzle and snow that plagued the area yesterday and early this morning should start to diminish late this morning into the afternoon as lift diminishes and drier air takes over.
624 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic high pressure will be in control of the weather through the weekend.
413 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 West Texas will remain under NW flow aloft through the weekend thanks to a stubborn upper level trough currently stretched from the north central USA to the East Coast. At the beginning of the week flow aloft becomes more northerly as the upper level pattern begins to modify and a large amplitude ridge moves on shore from the Pacific. The drizzle/freezing drizzle and snow that plagued the area yesterday and early this morning should start to diminish late this morning into the afternoon as lift diminishes and drier air takes over.
High pressure ridging over the west coast will bring dry conditions through the short term period.
425 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 WV imagery shows a stationary trough off the Baja coast, under a broad, upper ridge over thew west coast, and an exiting trough over the east. Near the sfc, isentropic upglide behind yesterday's front has resulted in a wintry mix of freezing fog, drizzle, and flurries across the NE CWA this morning. Stratus should hang around all day, and areas NE may not even get abv freezing this afternoon.
948 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic high pressure will be in control of the weather through the weekend.
514 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Today and Tonight: The potential for light freezing rain and light sleet looks to be ending early. This high was bringing in cooler and drier air to our CWA with the freezing line nearing the Highway 82 west of Interstate 55 at 4 am. Very light freezing rain occasionally mixed with light sleet will remain possible early this morning along and north of Highway 82 but it appears that potential will end shortly after daybreak. Temperatures will be much cooler than normal today, held down by a cool north wind beneath mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will bottom out below freezing across much of our CWA tonight but temperatures across our southern zones where the light rain falls will remain above freezing and no wintry mix threat is anticipated.
/22/ Today and Tonight: The potential for light freezing rain and light sleet looks to be ending early. This high was bringing in cooler and drier air to our CWA with the freezing line nearing the Highway 82 west of Interstate 55 at 4 am. Very light freezing rain occasionally mixed with light sleet will remain possible early this morning along and north of Highway 82 but it appears that potential will end shortly after daybreak. Temperatures will be much cooler than normal today, held down by a cool north wind beneath mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will bottom out below freezing across much of our CWA tonight but temperatures across our southern zones where the light rain falls will remain above freezing and no wintry mix threat is anticipated.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A cold front currently extending from near Rio Grande City to McAllen to Harlingen, will continue to push south and move off the lower Texas coast by dawn. High temperatures Thursday will struggle to reach the low to mid 50s as weak cold air advection continues.
734 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic high pressure crosses tonight into Thursday.
Upper level high pressure will remain in control of the NorCal weather through the weekend, as it shifts east from the eastern Pacific to SoCal. Daytime high temps will be around 10 degrees above normal with valley readings in the low 60's.
257 PM PST Wed Dec 27 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the west coast will provide a quiet and dry end to the year with above average daytime temperatures, areas of high clouds, and light valley winds. Temperatures around Tahoe have already increased to the mid 50s while down in the lower valleys of western NV and northeast CA temperatures are still near 50 degrees below the inversions. Ridge of high pressure will remain over the CA coast with periods of mid and high clouds.
Winds will remain light overnight as high pressure settles across the region and will veer around to southerly by 15-16Z.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 22 42 26 45 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 18 37 24 42 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 18 37 23 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 12 35 19 39 / 0 0 10 10.
223 PM PST Wed Dec 27 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the west coast will provide a quiet and dry end to the year with above average daytime temperatures, areas of high clouds, and light valley winds. There is potential for cooler temperatures and wetter storm systems moving through the region during the first week of January. Temperatures around Tahoe have already increased to the mid 50s while down in the lower valleys of western NV and northeast CA temperatures are still near 50 degrees below the inversions. Ridge of high pressure will remain over the CA coast with periods of mid and high clouds.
437 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2017 High clouds have moved over northern parts of the area this afternoon with the approach of a weak upper level trough in dry northwesterly flow. High pressure over the desert southwest will keep the rest of the area clear this afternoon and evening. Mid level warm advection will warm things up heading into the weekend with some valleys reaching the low 50's.
High clouds will then thicken and lower during Thursday, ahead of the next low pressure system moving into the Midwest. This slight waa will help bumps highs into the lower teens everywhere will plenty of sunshine to start the day.
As such, the ridges have taken an early lead in the drop off south of I-64. After the passage of a dry arctic cold front this morning, clouds are continuing to clear out of the far southeast portion of the CWA early this afternoon while much colder temperatures advect in from the north. Temperatures will fall into the low single digits overnight, with wind chills below zero in most locations by 12Z Thursday.
Continued northerly flow tonight and tomorrow as high pressure to our north helps to keep a newly developed coastal trough in place. Cool, damp, and drizzly/light rain are expected to persist over the next 24-36 hours with better chances of light accumulations east closer to the trough. None-the-less, clouds will remain in place with a northerly wind drawing in some cooler and slightly drier air. Thursday is much the same as today with cloudy skies, cooler conditions and areas of light rain expected, mostly Hwy 281 eastward. Temperatures look to be a few degrees warmer, closer to the low-50s, with weak cold air advection in the low-levels still occurring. Surface winds try to veer a bit towards the east-northeast late Thursday night which may help to send the coastal trough towards the west.
944 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the region tonight and Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to develop south of the area by late week and move northeast of the region over the weekend as very cold air spreads across the area in its wake. Despite a veil of high clouds, temperatures have dropped into the lower to mid 30s over much of the CWA and are on track to drop into the 20s in most areas overnight. Expect max temps in the low/mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40 along the beaches.
614 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the region tonight and Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to develop south of the area by late week and move northeast of the region over the weekend as very cold air spreads across the area in its wake. Anticipate low temperatures in the low to mid 20s with lower 30s Outer Banks. Expect max temps in the low/mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40 along the beaches.
615 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic high pressure crosses tonight into Thursday.
806 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 A weak cold front is sinking south across the central Florida peninsula this evening. Ample post-frontal moisture in the wake of the front will support increasing low clouds across the forecast area the remainder of the night along with some patchy fog as the low level flow become northeasterly. Cool air advection will support cooler temperatures overnight with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 50s across the Nature coast toward morning, and upper 50s to lower 60s central and south. A weak cold front sinking south through the central peninsula this evening will bring an uptick in northeast to east winds (increasing to around 15 knots) over the central and northern Gulf waters the rest of tonight with seas in the 2 to 3 foot range expected.
914 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather tonight and Thursday.
Dry atmosphere in place, with the high nearby, will need time to moisten up. Light fluffy snow will break out ahead of low pressure system currently over lee of Rockies from MT thru WY and south.
412 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a developing low/inverted trough just southeast of the Mississippi river. Also, a cold front was from north Georgia to east central Mississippi to west central Louisiana and a 1043mb high was located over Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. Upper air analysis showed a large cyclonic circulation centered just northeast of Newfoundland with a broad trough over the Lower 48. A weak trough was located from northern Baja California to the southwest. Flow ahead of this trough and the main trough had created a strong westerly confluent flow over southeast CONUS.
706 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather tonight and Thursday.
/issued 327 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/ Low clouds have been thinning/lifting the past couple hours and temperatures have been slowly inching up toward the freezing mark on the Caprock, while lagging by a few degrees in the Rolling Plains. Some weak isentropic ascent and weak moisture advection as winds turn southerly may result in the redevelopment of low clouds and freezing fog across portions of the Caprock later tonight, with low confidence in the extent of any dense fog. Warmer temperatures return tomorrow with downsloping westerly winds pushing highs into the low 60s across the western South Plains.
Tonight through Thursday: Latest analyses show a cold broad flat trough pattern over the CONUS with west northwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface a cold arctic airmass was spreading south across the region with readings from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures should remain just above freezing in our southern counties, and model soundings show a warm nose aloft, so it should stay all rain with very light QPF amounts. This will bear close watching given that temperatures will be near freezing. The disturbance will exit the region on Thursday as the low end rain chances will be confined to our southeast counties during the afternoon.
800 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure over the Northeast will ridge into the forecast area bringing dry, cool weather through Thursday. Developing low pressure to our southeast may bring a chance of freezing drizzle to the southeast Midlands Thursday night.
Weak cool frontal boundary will continue to sag into the southern FL peninsula overnight with trailing band of moisture in the low-levels. A high pressure system will force local winds to veer onshore as a fast and energetic flow pattern continues aloft. GFS and ECMWF generally agree that most of the surface amplification will occur to the northeast of the area, keeping the highest rain chances confined to the coastal waters off Volusia County.
Temperatures are expected to drop to or slightly below freezing from the east Texas Lakes area to CenLA. A brief window of freezing drizzle is possible, however accumulation will be very spotty and very minimal if at all. Temps will remain above freezing elsewhere. The ridge will move to the Atlantic coast.
High pressure will continue to sit over the region this week with only periods of high clouds spilling into the area. With a dry airmass locked in place, seasonable morning temperatures will be followed by afternoon highs warmer than average into the 70s.
640 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Strong high pressure will be centered northwest and north of the forecast area. The high will direct cold air into the region. Low pressure developing long the front could bring a chance of winter weather to the southeast Midlands Thursday night.
610 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather tonight and Thursday.
The last traces of the low clouds, fog and flurries are finally exiting the southeast corner of Colorado this afternoon. The high valleys are in the 40s to around 50. Lingering low clouds and fog across the lower Arkansas River Valley and far eastern plains should dissipate pretty quickly during the morning leading to generally mild conditions during the afternoon. This will produce stronger w-nw winds across the higher terrain, which will at times translate down to the lower levels and help warm, depending upon the MSLP pattern.
Have stayed about in the middle of the warmer MOS numbers and the cooler raw model numbers which gives us lows in the 20s and 30s mainly with a few teens probable up north.
1012 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 In the mean a deep cold trough will dominated the weather over much of North America. At the surface two massive anticyclones of arctic origin will push across our region. So despite two massive anticyclones moving through our region in the next 7 days it will difficult for most locations to pop below 0F.