Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Downstream from this trough strong ridging aloft was allowing for a seasonably hot, but capped atmosphere over the FA. Height falls still start to spread into the high Plains this evening, and into the mid Missouri River valley during the day on Saturday as an intense 110 kt H3 jet rotates into the Dakotas. 5 C/KM, we will likely develop around 1000-1500 j/KG of MLCAPE by afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. The cold front will slowly work off to the southeast on Saturday night with the threat of some showers or maybe a few thunderstorms continuing in southeast Neb and southwest IA.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, a weak pressure pattern will prevail overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be centered over the panhandle of Florida tonight.
With the persistence of patchy fog development after midnight last several nights across northern Highland Rim locations, and with ridging influences sfc/aloft persisting thru tonight, resulting in yet another night of possibly at most a passing high level cloud or two, along with calm winds expected, patchy fog development likely will occur again across these areas. High pressure over the area will continue to bring VFR conditions this evening with clear skies and light NNE winds.
This high will provide E to NE low level flow and drying, with pleasant early fall weather anticipated both tonight and Saturday. Cooler air will continue to filter into the area tonight, with 850 mb temps dropping to near +4C across northern Lake Huron after midnight. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 40s inland to near 50 along the coasts. Models suggest mid-high clouds currently over MN and western WI may traverse mid level ridge axis over western Great Lakes and reach NW Lower MI after midnight, and linger into Saturday.
This is not too surprising given the depth of the low level inversion per 00Z DTX sounding. Surface cold front has slipped just south of the border with elevated front quickly on its heals. Large high pressure north in Canada will slowly slide southeast across Ontario through Saturday. Northeast flow will advect in cooler and drier air that will bring partial clearing into thumb region overnight, however, low and mid level moisture will remain in place across the rest of the area until Saturday afternoon, when surface ridging noses in bringing quick clearing from the northeast.
An upper level low is centered over south central Georgia. Water vapor imagery shows this area of low pressure to be very dry, with the area just west of the Apalachicola and Choctawhatchee Rivers to have more moisture. Being on the western edge of the low, the area has seen mostly weak northern flow, with the development of a weak late afternoon seabreeze front along the Panhandle coast. These storms will continue to dissipate over the next hour, however, and we expect the rest of the night to remain dry with lows dipping into the low 70s by the early morning hours.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a large upper level trough across the mountain west moving slowly to the east. As the upper level trough slowly makes it way to the east, lift will increase and so will the shower activity as the weekend progresses.
The potent upper level trough and low digging into the Rockies will move further into the central plains, with the tail end of this trough gradually getting closer to the region. The combination of high moisture (PWAT values exceeding 2 inches across much of the region) and the position of the upper level trough will lead to more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm throughout the period. Persistent temperatures will prevail through the period as well, though lows Saturday night will be a degree or two cooler.
The forecast remains on track this evening with high pressure nosing in across Washington and Oregon and easing into western Idaho. Upper-level low pressure that has been bringing much needed moisture is finally tracking eastward into southwest Wyoming. The clearing skies in the wake of the low will set the stage for very cold temperatures Tonight across southeast Oregon and below normal readings for most other locations. Some patchy fog may develop in the low spots of Malhuer and Harney counties by daybreak Saturday. On the larger scale, upper low in Utah will move into Wyoming tonight and rain should exit the Magic Valley to the east. Patchy fog will form in the valleys early Saturday morning and then Saturday will be sunny and a little warmer than today.
A surface cold front will move through the area Saturday, and models continue to indicate this will should be east of the area by the time any surface based convection develops during peak heating Saturday afternoon.
continued high pressure and upper level subsidence. A weak upper low begins to drop into the area from the northeast late Saturday. Temperatures clearly haven't received the memo that it's no longer summer, as they continue to run much warmer than normal through tomorrow afternoon.
With the persistence of patchy fog development after midnight last several nights across northern Highland Rim locations, and with ridging influences sfc/aloft persisting thru tonight, resulting in yet another night of possibly at most a passing high level cloud or two, along with calm winds expected, patchy fog development likely will occur again across these areas. High pressure remains over the area with light winds and VFR.
/issued 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s. An upper level ridge remains in place over the Mississippi Valley today and the ridge should remain over the region for much of the weekend.
The 15-18 UTC operational and experimental HRRR iterations continue to show strong run to run consistency in developing convection across eastern Wyoming this afternoon, and propagating this convection into southwest North Dakota by 02-04 UTC, sustained by a strengthening low level jet and a resurgence of upper level forcing ejecting out of the intermountain west upper level low. For Saturday, followed a blend of the 12 UTC global suite given good agreement amongst the larger scale guidance for the aforementioned upper level low to propagate into southwest North Dakota by early Saturday evening. All ingredients will be available for strong winds on the backside of the low, with a tight pressure gradient and strong cold air advection aided by isallobaric forcing.
1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A cold front continues moving south of the area early this morning.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s over the interior central and east.
Tonight through Saturday, the upper-level low pressure circulation center will move from Wyoming northeastward to the Montana/North Dakota border.
Later tonight a surge of cooler air will arrive as winds shift to northwest.
Therefore, the lower levels of the atmosphere will stay fairly saturated, aiding in early Saturday morning development along the coast especially in the western coastal counties of our CWA.
527 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A strong upper level low was over northern UT this aftn with moderate QG ascent over CO at this time. As the upper low moves into central Wy tonight. Cooler on Saturday and generally dry across the northeast plains. A mix bag of rain and snow showers in the high country saturday aftn. The upper level low will be over Wyoming on Saturday with wrap around moisture continuing to bring precipitation to the mountains through Saturday afternoon. Instability and lingering moisture will keep a slight chance of precipitation through Saturday evening for the higher mountains and adjacent plains. Elsewhere on the plains clouds will increase through the day with cooler temperatures on continuing cold advection.
Upper-low slides over northern Wyoming this evening with colder air wrapping around the backside of the low in the early morning hours.
A strong low pressure system currently centered over southeast Montana will continue to lift toward central North Dakota this evening and overnight. Upper ridging begins to nose in on the heels of the exiting system on Sunday.
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A strong upper level ridge over the MS river valley including IL is providing another very warm and somewhat humid summerlike day, with temps in the mid 80s to near 90F and dewpoints in the 60s. A 564 dm 500 mb low along the eastern MT/WY border will lift into southern Manitoba by Sunday afternoon and push the cold front east into the IL river valley late Sunday afternoon. The 12z model runs are showing a slightly slower progression of the cold front Sunday night.
129 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Aviation High pressure north of Lake Huron will provide fair weather today and through most of Sunday.
A sharp mid level trof will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile the ridge will begin to break down. Surface cold front should be near SEMO, SW IL by Sunday evening.
High pressure building to the North will provide for a more moist onshore flow for Sunday, leading to better chances for convection. With the onshore flow, and water temperatures along the coast now in the lower 80s, highs will be in the lower to mid 80s Eastern counties Sunday, and upper 80s to near 90 further inland. The upper air pattern for the short term begins with upper troughs across the middle of the country and over the northeastern conus and Canadian maritimes, with a ridge in between over the Great Lakes. A weak trough will also remain over the deep south, centered around the western Florida panhandle, with light west to southwest flow aloft over the region.
402 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and becoming centered over the northeastern states on Sunday.
A strong cold front is expected to race through SW KS tonight, reaching the northern zones around 3 AM, and clearing Medicine Lodge by 7 AM. Pressure gradient behind the cold front will support strong north winds, gusting 30-40 mph late tonight through Sunday morning. Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 40s at Syracuse/Hamilton county to the lower 60s at Kiowa/Barber county. Highs only in the lower 70s, near room temperature, and actually several degrees below normal for a change.
Cooler temperatures/stratus and light rain are occurring over northeastern Wyoming and parts of the Black Hills in the wrap- around area to the west of the low pressure system. The low pressure system will continue to move northeastward tonight which will swing a cold front across the forecast area. with precipitation winding down overnight as the low pressure system moves away to the northeast. Strong upper ridging combined with a slowdown in the upper pattern will bring dry weather to the region through much of the upcoming work week.
High pressure is rapidly building into the region this afternoon. High pressure is building into the region this afternoon, however the effects at the surface have been a bit slower than expected.
A cold front will stall out tonight across the forecast area, and eventually push east of the local area tomorrow morning.
405 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper ridge axis is currently along and just east of the Mississippi River, while a large upper trough is centered over Southeast Montana/Northeast Wyoming. The southerly flow between these two features is drawing moisture northward across the Plains and aiding in the development of convection along a surface cold front. The Rockies trough will split with the northern stream moving northeastward towards Canada, and the southern stream low becoming cutoff over Northwest Mexico. The Gulf trough will continue to slowly move west, but is only expected to reach near the western tip of the Florida Panhandle before dropping southward back into the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will erode during the day tomorrow and give way to an upper trough digging across the northcentral U.
Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery shows large upper level trough dominating the CONUS region from the northern plains to the dessert southwest and is moving slowly to the east.
1144 AM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Upper low is now centered over southern Wyoming, with leading edge of forcing (associated with jet streak) over western Nebraska/Kansas. Subsidence/deep dry air is building eastward around the southern part of upper low into our western CWA. At the surface a cold front is already moving towards the Colorado border and should be through our CWA by sunrise. Today-Sunday: As upper low continues to shift towards the northern plains large scale subsides as a result of ridging in the west will spread eastward.
A weak warm front will brush the northern portions of Western Washington bringing clouds and a chance of light rain tonight into Sunday morning. A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will build into the area midday Sunday giving drying and warming conditions.
146 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Upper low over the Rockies is elongating as previously advertised. Main low is moving into MT/Daks while 150 kt 250 mb jet over BC begins to dive down the back of the trough and will eventually carve out another low over northern Mexico by late tomorrow. A cold front is still on track to push rapidly through the forecast area starting around 9 pm in the far northwest counties and clearing the area by around 4 am in the southeast. Sunday looks to be cooler, breezy but mostly sunny.
327 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Upper ridging remains over the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon with a very weak upper low near the Georgia-Florida border. Where convection has not occurred, temperatures have risen into the lower and middle 90s.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a strong ridge from the central Gulf Coast to the upper Midwest, but there was a weak minimum in the height/temperature fields centered over Tallahassee. The latest RAP analysis did not show any Q-G forcing associated with this low.
High pressure continues at the surface and aloft through the near term. A weak upper level low will move into the area from the northeast late this afternoon. Weak instability associated with the upper low combined with the sea and bay breeze low level forcing may be enough for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms where locally enhanced moisture convergence will aid in convective initiation. Temps will remain well above normal with highs today in the low to mid 90s inland to around 90 near the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the low 70s inland to mid and upper 70s along the coast.
Meanwhile, the eastward advancing north/south band of thundershowers across central NE and western KS oriented ahead of an advancing cold front should make progress eastward into at least eastern NE 12-15z, although these should not be particularly strong. Beyond then, thunderstorms should become more numerous through the remainder of the afternoon as instability builds, eventually reaching 2000-2500 J/kg as surface dewpoints peak near or in the lower 70s.
313 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Hot weather on-going this afternoon with an upper-ridge directly overhead across the region. did add some 20-30 PoPs along the high terrain of the East Tennessee Mountains for the late afternoon. We will have a weather pattern change early in the extended as a cold front approaches the region. models continue to struggle with timing of the cold front.
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper level trough presently over the eastern Rockies will push out onto the Northern Plains for today and tonight, bringing increasing rain chances to our area during the period. A surface cold front is currently analyzed through west central SD and NE, with showers and thunderstorms streaming northward along this boundary. Cooler air will begin to filter into the area behind the boundary, and looking at lows in the lower to mid 50s overnight. Large closed upper level low continues to swing northeast into south central Canada on Sunday, transitioning the region into cool and brisk northwest flow.
555 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through Sunday.
Maintaining VCTS at BPT, no precip mention at all other terminals with dry high pressure aloft. /issued 1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/ Weak high pressure at the surface will continue to ridge into the forecast area from the northeast with light low level southeast flow the result. Some weak upper level ridging will preclude widespread shower activity. No POPs have been mentioned remaining sites as ridging aloft should maintain enough capping to limit convection today. Aloft a ridge remains in place, however it is centered over the NE gulf coast and is gradually weakening.
220 PM PDT Sat Sep 24 2016 High pressure will bring warm and dry weather to the Inland Northwest this weekend.
1051 AM PDT Sat Sep 24 2016 High pressure will bring warm and dry weather to the Inland Northwest this weekend.
The heaviest showers and thunderstorms will be most likely from early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon, as the approaching cold front finally takes shape in the Central Plains and surges into the region. The highest rainfall amounts will affect parts of northeast Oklahoma, with notably lighter amounts across southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. The latest data continue to show a progressive system, with the low in the southwestern United States expected to retrograde and have little effect on the area.
This is due to light and variable winds at the surface and through the lower levels that will likely produce precipitating cloud lines.
Significant warming continues to take place over central California as upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific nudges east over the California coastline. Temperatures were generally between 3 and 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago and are forecast to warm to near climatological normals in the next few hours.
259 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions this weekend.
A strong cold front should be through the forecast area by 18Z Sunday with waning instability and shear so the threat for strong storms will be minimal. Showers of moderate intensity will continue over the East through early to mid afternoon before the upper trough finally pushes through.
(Issued 1017 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016) Overnight lows fell into the low to mid 60s with mostly clear skies and high pressure overhead.
Upper level low will begin to exit the area Sunday night with wraparound showers exiting northwestern Minnesota.
Pacific cold front over eastern zones at this time expected to move slowly westward this evening before being overtaken by much stronger polar front.
That leaves a ridge of high pressure beginning to build in tonight.
420 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A weak cold front has stalled across the area this afternoon and will wash out this evening. High pressure will then build into the area Sunday.
Weak troughing aloft will continue over the northern Gulf and north Florida through Sunday, but will have little actual impact on our weather.
236 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A vigorous upper-level low pressure system continues to lift across the northern plains late this afternoon, with a narrow plume of mid and high level moisture extending across eastern WY wrapping around the back side of the system. Beyond 12z Sunday, considerable drying will occur beneath a building upper-level ridge w/ no chances for precip through the remainder of the period.
600 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and becoming centered over the northeastern states on Sunday.
153 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Canadian high pressure builds over the Tri-State through the weekend with our first touch of fall-like weather.
Dry conditions will persist through Sunday morning with ridging aloft and high pressure centered over Ontario. However, the pattern will change by Sunday afternoon as a low pressure system tracks out of the Northern Plains and into Manitoba and Ontario. This system will break down the current persistent upper ridge, and its associated cold front will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to central Indiana starting Sunday afternoon.
1129 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Water vapor shows upper low lifting into srn WY. Upper low will gradually lift through WY and into nwrn SD late this aftn. Strong upper ridging combined with a slowdown in the upper pattern will bring dry weather to the region through much of the upcoming work week.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a strong ridge from the central Gulf Coast to the upper Midwest, but there was a weak minimum in the height/temperature fields centered over Tallahassee. The latest RAP analysis did not show any Q-G forcing associated with this low. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
The area remains in between an upper level high to our east and a large upper level low over Wyoming. Therefore the flow is primarily parallel ahead of a cold front across Kansas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight across western Missouri and southeast Kansas as the main upper low remains to the west. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur during the day on Sunday as the cold front pushes through the region.
133 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Canadian high pressure builds over the Tri-State through the weekend with our first touch of fall-like weather.
256 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 The main portion of a strong upper low/trough over the Northern Rockies will lift northeastward across the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Sunday night, while the southern portion of this trough breaks off and shifts southwestward into northern Mexico and the Baja region. Forcing for ascent from the right-rear quadrant of an upper jet streak, and low-level convergence near the front will be focused in this high moisture corridor. This will support numerous showers/thunderstorms in especially central/south-central Kansas through about 06z tonight, with the higher rain probabilities then shifting to the Flint Hills/Southeast KS late tonight into midday Sunday.
Upper Weak high pressure will keep things dry tonight. A cold front is currently located from eastern South Dakota through central Kansas and into west Texas. Sunday will another hot day with highs in the low to mid 90s. By Sunday night, the cold front will be quickly moving into Arkansas and eventually will move through much of the forecast area.
153 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A very amplified long wave trough was evident across the western United States with an Upper Ridge centered across the mid section of the nation. Due to the amplified long wave trough and boundary layer winds nearly parallel to the mean upper winds, precipitation may linger in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin longer.
The upper level trough that has been digging into the western CONUS is still progged to split on Sunday, with a cut off low forming and retrograding over northern Mexico while the upper trough continues tracking eastward. This will allow for a cold front to push into the state and approach South Texas. As this upper level system and cold front approach the region more scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday.
There is a chance of lower ceilings and perhaps showers and a few storms along a cold front early Sunday morning. /Issued 319 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/ An upper level low was located over southern Wyoming early this morning. The panhandles were under the right entrance region of the upper jet streak that was rotating northward into the Wyoming upper low. This trough may also provide a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms which will again move east across the eastern panhandles. A cold front will move south across the panhandles late tonight into Sunday morning as the upper level low moves out onto the northern plains.
The chances for rain will rapidly diminish from west to east on Sunday as a strong cold front ushers in much cooler and drier air.