Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a strong upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward into the Western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge of high pressure is building across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of high pressure stretches from eastern Wyoming southeastward into northeast Colorado. Water vapor loop shows a vigorous closed upper level low moving into Minnesota early this morning. A cold front associated with this system was moving south across the central Plains and has nearly cleared south central Kansas early this morning. An upper level ridge will build from the Four Corners region into central Canada through much of the upcoming week. With increasing heights and thickness values, a trend toward warmer temperatures will be noted through at least the early to middle part of the week.
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOSTLY UP IN THE LOWER 60S.
1037 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO SW MO AT 15Z. FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.
Strong storms continue to track southeast across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A cooler air mass will build into the region behind the cold front today. The region will remain in a northwest flow pattern through the week as upper level trough will be located over the eastern U. and an upper level ridge over the western U. For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS:A cold front and thunderstorms are pushing south of the area.
Light and variable winds will come around to the north beginning this morning as a cold front moves into the area around 15z. /issued 415 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending across the srn CONUS, from SoCal to the Florida. To the north, a trough was ejecting into nrn MN. Closer to home, sfc obs and area radars show a cold front moving thru the Texas Panhandle, trailing the trough. Otherwise, thicknesses should bottom out Monday, but temps will remain above-normal Monday afternoon before the ridge intensifies over the SW CONUS later in the week, pushing temps once more into the upper 90s most locations. Unfortunately, models keep the theta- e ridge to the west, affording little chances of rain in the extended.
The region will mainly be in between a ridge of high pressure over the southwest and a low pressure area off that is currently along the coast of Canada.
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED SUBSIDENCE IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS TODAY. /ISSUED / WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVENTUALLY RETREATS TO THE WEST.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER 05Z AT CKV, AND AFTER 09Z AT BNA.
649 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 MOST OF THE FORECAST SHIFT WAS SPENT TRYING TO BUILD IN DETAILS ON THE TRENDS IN THE WEATHER FROM THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARD ERN WI WITH LIGHT SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME POST-FRONTAL SHRA ABOUT A COUNTY FURTHER WEST. MULTIPLE FRONTOGENETIC BANDS INDICATED IN THE RAP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL SECONDARY TROUGH/FRONTAL AXIS ALONG MN/DAKOTAS BORDER IS SHIFTING TOWARD THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDING THE MN TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SCENARIO WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH AFFECTING NRN WI LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
707 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
1042 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND PROMPTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING HUMID AND SEASONABLY WARM. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS UPON REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT OVER EASTERN MAINE AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE WIND PATTERN AND PASSES NEARBY. WE MAY SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SYSTEM WITH BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE IMMEDIATE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED SUBSIDENCE IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS TODAY. 31 WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVENTUALLY RETREATS TO THE WEST.
1011 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER APPROACHING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. 14Z OBS INDICATING SFC TROF SPLITTING WV. LOWS A DEG OR TWO WARMER GIVEN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. BASICALLY IN THE L60S XCPT WARMER IN THE CITIES/ALONG THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS.
HIGHLIGHTING THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE COMPLEX. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS MOIST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
626 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OUT AEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OUT AEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
1258 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
826 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TODAY INTO MONDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER SHRINKS BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
838 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND PROMPTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING HUMID AND SEASONABLY WARM. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS UPON REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT OVER EASTERN MAINE AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE WIND PATTERN AND PASSES NEARBY. WE MAY SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SYSTEM WITH BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE IMMEDIATE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH SOME 4 MB/3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AT 11Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KTUL-KOKC-KLBB LINE. /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ THE NOCTURNAL MCS IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AT 11Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KTUL-KOKC-KLBB LINE. /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ THE NOCTURNAL MCS IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
TO PUSH INTO THE SE GA/NE FL REGION LATER TODAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. ABUNDANT INSOLATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES. THIS HEAT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 3000-4000J/KG VALUES TO FUEL THE DEVELOPING STORM ACTIVITY. LINGERING VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SFC TROF SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
422 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND TODAY.
A weak cold front will move south into the Big Country today, and should reach the KABI terminal by 04Z. With the low chance and low expected coverage of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, not carrying a mention at the TAF sites at this time. /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper trough is moving east from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest early this morning. Trailing portion of associated cold front is moving across northwest Oklahoma and the northern Texas Panhandle. Leaning toward a scenario with the cold front approaching the northern Big Country by late this morning, with the front weakening and slowing its southward movement into our northern counties this afternoon.
636 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE SECOND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM OF THE WEEK HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN DEW POINTS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRUSH PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND WHILE WINDS WILL EASE. THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK.
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TONIGHT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER SRN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF SHORE OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SWD INTO FAR SERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVHD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD EST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH I-44 AT 10 AM. /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS.
H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA HAS DEVELOPED SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION TOMORROW SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AND ECMWF MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE GULF COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF A TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EVEN AS MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX SUN NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE SUN NIGHT.
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 90S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY AS MOST STORMS WILL DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MON. FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWING FOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MON AFTERNOON AS WELL. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND 70S/80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Look for the wind to decrease early this evening as our fast moving cold front moves out of the Inland Northwest. This is associated with the upper trough that will pivot across the region later tonight and Sunday. /Kelch 00Z TAFS: Strong west or southwest wind gusts are starting to diminish as the cold front moves east to Montana. The upper level trough will slide over the region tonight into Sunday with scattered showers possible along with isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
INTERESTING FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MS/AL COAST. /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER. THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD. DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW. THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW.
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. MINS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING TROUGH. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI.
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ (Tonight and Sunday) Weak upper trough over west Texas resulting in mostly elevated showers/virga over the western half of the forecast area today. Temps today have been several degrees cooler with increased cloud cover.
Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to remain there heading into the upcoming work week.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 81 66 86 / 30 50 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 82 64 84 / 20 40 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 82 65 85 / 20 40 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 81 61 84 / 10 40 30 30.
1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS. AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S. AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WWD. BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA. NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA. IN ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY.
Winds become light and variable overnight as the ridge axis slides through the area. Southerly winds return by sunrise tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows overnight look to fall to around 60 degrees with highs tomorrow reaching into the lower 90s.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE 12Z PERIOD SO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.
1113 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. MINS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING TROUGH. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI.
AND A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE SO WE WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT POPS AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BILOXI MS.
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH APPROACHED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN UTAH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UT ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW UT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DIPPING BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.
WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.
930 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK. THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME MID 80S WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE.
AM WATCHING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH DEVELOPING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR TRENDS AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
Weak surface cold front lies just east and south of the CWA will inch southward overnight. Should be able to warm up well into the 80s on Sunday given the expected increase in sunshine and slightly warmer 925mb temperatures.
EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME DECENT CIRRUS OVERNIGHT COMING IN FROM C TX AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE RED RIVER. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE AFD FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE HAD MOVED LITTLE AND STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
931 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN.
THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
Elongated upper trough axis is currently stretched this afternoon from the Great Lakes region, southwest towards eastern OK. Towards the sfc, the 850 mb front and closed low are centering over the CWA this afternoon with shallow, yet persistent stratus that has been unable to overcome the strong inversion seen earlier this morning. Lows tonight fall to the lower 60s. On Sunday, 850 mb low shifts southward in response to incoming trough builds into western KS. Temps therefore are in question, like today, where highs may only reach the low or mid 80s for eastern areas. Upper ridging will spread east with time during the Sun night through Tues period with sfc-850mb response expected to be a gradual southeast to south flow re-establishing.
740 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE LOW INTENSITY CONVECTION NOW UNDERWAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HE DENVER METRO AREA. STILL UNDER A STRONG/VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS ABOUT TO PASS OVER THE AREA AS RAP MODEL. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDENSATION LEVELS LOWERING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FORMING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ONLY A 10 PCT POP ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS LATE.
938 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.