Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
129 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY TOWARD THE MID OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION BEFORE EXITING LATE TONIGHT.
346 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
1228 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BOTTINEAU TO NEAR MINOT TO BEACH. COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA ACROSS MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. CAA BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
235 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY.
153 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING MILD CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD FRONT BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS.
433 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE TX COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL MAINTAIN DRY WARM WEATHER, FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TIGHTENS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO TRANSITION THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NW AL AND NE MS WERE ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM.
HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THROUGH TIME. /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER TEXAS.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK, BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA REMAIN BETWEEN A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGES WILL LIKELY REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST AROUND THE LOW THRU WRN INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ONE SHORT WAVE NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO CENTRAL-NRN MANITOBA WITH TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST AND MEETING UP WITH THE TROUGH THRU NW ND INTO FAR SE SASK/SW MANITOBA. ACTUAL COLD FRONT A BIT EAST OF MAIN SHORT WAVE AND THUS ALONG THE FRONT NO PRECIP OCCURING AND MOISTURE IS MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WHILE SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN WILL SEE TEMPS APPROACHING 80 OR INTO THE LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN. COOLER AIR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
307 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
126 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL MAINTAIN DRY WARM WEATHER, FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
Therefore, will reduce rain chances for the rest of the night, leaving only a slight chance over the Big Bend and the Lower Trans Pecos. /issued 151 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/ Strong upper level low pressure area centered in southwestern Mexico will slowly shift east into eastern Mexico through Thursday. This precipitation courtesy of mid level energy rotating northward around the upper low.
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GETTING SHOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COOLER VALLEYS TO DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH RIDGETOPS CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. LOWS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH. AN ANOMALOUS LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST FIGHTING AGAINST A HIGH BLOCK OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.
THE UPR LVL RIDGE ACRS THE ERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST CHCS W-N OF PIT.
954 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 UPDATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COMES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN CLEARING THE SKIES.
321 PM MST WED MAR 9 2016 BACK END OF A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE AN END TO SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER MTN AREAS BY MID-EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW MID-TROP LAYER STABILIZING WITH WARMING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE REACHING UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STRONG HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY OVER WESTERN COLORADO BY MIDDAY. GOING WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10-14 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOW/MID 60S ON THE PLAINS AND MILD MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
901 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WARM AIR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MEXICO WHILE A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
704 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WARM AIR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM INTO THURSDAY.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
1027 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 CURRENTLY - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH EAST WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CROSSWIND VECTORS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL REACH 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE HIGHEST GUSTS.
655 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH.
304 PM MST WED MAR 9 2016 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.
/issued 151 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/ Strong upper level low pressure area centered in southwestern Mexico will slowly shift east into eastern Mexico through Thursday. This precipitation courtesy of mid level energy rotating northward around the upper low.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST. BACK END OF A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE AN END TO SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER MTN AREAS BY MID-EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW MID-TROP LAYER STABILIZING WITH WARMING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE REACHING UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STRONG HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY OVER WESTERN COLORADO BY MIDDAY. GOING WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10-14 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOW/MID 60S ON THE PLAINS AND MILD MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVE UPDATE AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE ACRS THE ERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST CHCS W-N OF PIT.
HOWEVER STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME -RA/DZ AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WITH THE UPPER LOW WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
933 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE WARM AIR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM INTO THURSDAY.
557 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 A cold front southeast of the IL river and approaching I-55 at mid afternoon will reach near I-72 by sunset and pass southeast of I-70 overnight, getting southeast of Lawrence county late tonight. Still looks like a prolonged period of rain through the weekend, but again, rainfall amounts look to be on the lower side. By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be just north of the Ohio Valley, with a short wave trough axis in the eastern Plains.
933 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUALLY ERODE THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND FORCE THE AXIS TO BE ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO STRAIGHT NORTH AND SOUTH.
255 PM PST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER TO START THEN TURNING WARMER AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER VERSUS THE LAST FEW DAYS TO START THE PERIOD.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLESS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OR SOME KIND OF MCV DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THESE COMPLEXES.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE ACCOMPANYING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE DROP TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS WITH THE HIGH LOW LEVEL RH.
648 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH.
That front won't move much courtesy of a strong mid level ridge in place over our area.
1100 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE THUMB THRU SW LOWER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS DUE TO FOG HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS FOG WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO AROUND 40 NEAR SAGINAW BAY. COOLER TO START THEN TURNING WARMER AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER VERSUS THE LAST FEW DAYS TO START THE PERIOD.
EVENING CENTRAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 850 MBS WITH MID LVL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LAYER ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 S COASTAL AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR.
651 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COMES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN CLEARING THE SKIES.
WV imagery indicates a closed off upper level low transitioning eastward across northern Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge of high pressure is moving east across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is shifting slowly east across the Upper Midwest. Associated "cold" front (trough) passage will bring a northerly wind shift Thursday morning. In fact, high pressure ridging building into the plains from the Desert SW will yield strong height rises and warmer temperatures Thursday.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF CRITERIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS NOSING INTO THE PLAINS.
545 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST.
/ISSUED 608 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY.
840 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TONIGHT DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT. THEN BEGIN TO FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH. TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED W/THE LOW ARRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO HELPING FOCUS RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. BEING ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSED LOW OVR OLD MEXICO WILL FINALLY OPEN AND NEWD IN WKNG FASHION LTR SUN AHD OF UPSTREAM KICKER DRIVING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. AS COLD FRONT WORKS EAST TONIGHT.
605 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. DESPITE MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. LIMITING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP. UPPED AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE FARTHER WEST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND WARMER AT 850HPA.
525 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARMER THAN FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ANY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY AND CLOSEST TO LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.
719 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
630 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 FGEN FORCING WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TREND TO IFR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE 18Z-00Z THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH 5+ SIGMA CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US. COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STREAMING NORTHWARD. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM PARENT LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC.
711 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER TONIGHT KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THE SCA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
208 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105. CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A WARM DAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL SUITES.
MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
BUT NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHS FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE MID-STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CYCLE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. ADDITIONAL, MORE ORGANIZED, CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SQUALL LINE PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF MISSOURI.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. UPPER LOW IS SPINNING AT ABOUT 30N/130W WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING N FROM S CA. THE RETREAT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING N OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU SAT EVENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT.
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE CONTENT BEGINS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE INTO MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS TX ASSOCIATED TO A UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE SE PLAINS.
552 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS HAS BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AND H85 WAA WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER DAY TOMORROW. STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LEAVE FORECAST AREA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AND SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAIN AND THEN RAMPED UP AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
ADDITIONAL, MORE ORGANIZED, CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SQUALL LINE PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF MISSOURI.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN.
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING PEAK HEATING THANKS TO DEEP MIXING.
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THE SHORT AND MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STORM THREAT WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 39 EXTENDED PERIODS MARKED WITH MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN AS UPPER TROUGH RETURNS TO THE AREA.
A LATE JUNE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND LAST NIGHT CREATED SOME COOLER AREAS. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U. WHAT EVER ACTIVITY DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORT LIVED UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES FOR A QUIET START TO WEEKEND. LONGER TERM CONCERNS STILL FOCUS ON PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WEATHER IN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS TOMORROW ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT STORMS WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIE ROUGHLY FROM SEMINOLE TO LAWTON TO VERNON AROUND INITIATION TIME.
THE WARM FRONT STILL REMAINS PARKED OVER THE OH RIVER AREA DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COOLER AIR BEHIND BEING A RATHER UNSEASONAL CHANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE AND MORE SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. VFR TAFS WILL BE THE MAIN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN KY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAWN AS THE LOW CIGS AND VIS BEGIN TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.
MOISTURE HAS ERODED AS THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE BULGES INTO THIS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UTAH AMPLIFIES TODAY. FORECAST MODELS INITIALIZED PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE HIGH END AT 00Z YESTERDAY EVENING SO THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEFINITELY BE QUITE DRY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN JUANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
327 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.