Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, a warm front noted from near IAH to JAS, to just S of AEX as of 1130Z will continue to slowly lift N today, reaching the Lower Toledo Bend Area of Deep E TX into Ncntrl LA this afternoon. Should see additional SHRA with embedded TSRA redevelop overnight mainly from Deep E TX NE across N LA/Scntrl AR ahead of the main upper trough as it begins to kick E across the Srn Plains. /issued 447 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ A large area of rain and isolated thunderstorms continues to spread northeast across the CWA as an upper trough over Colorado moves into the Plains. The bulk of the precipitation should begin to shift eastward and should begin to diminish across Southeast Oklahoma and portions of East Texas by noon Thursday as the upper trough lifts north.
/issued 447 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ A large area of rain and isolated thunderstorms continues to spread northeast across the CWA as an upper trough over Colorado moves into the Plains. The bulk of the precipitation should begin to shift eastward and should begin to diminish across Southeast Oklahoma and portions of East Texas by noon Thursday as the upper trough lifts north.
253 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 The potential for drizzle and freezing drizzle exists tonight before high pressure builds in later on Thursday.
The higher clouds are part of a moisture stream from Mexico, ahead of an upper low currently over northern New Mexico. This low will lift northeast into the central Plains late tonight. Deep trof over the desert SW dominating the weather pattern across the CONUS, keeping temperatures well above normal for mid January.
Over the mountains tomorrow, moisture will be increasing from the west as a negatively tilted trough digs over the Great Basin. Temperatures will be around seasonal normals overnight and then a little warmer than normal tomorrow afternoon.
The high will move into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday. Warmer and semi-moist air moving over the northern MI snowpack continues to generate fog and low clouds trapped under 1kft inversion.
With that, all guidance indicates stratus increasing over the lower MO River Valley, northwestern IA, and portions of southwestern MN after 06Z. Lows will range from around 20 through the northern James River Valley and east central SD, to lower 30s through the lower MO River corridor into northwest IA.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A 500mb low pressure system is currently located over the Four Corners region and will gradually move eastward across the Central Plains through Thursday. At the surface a cold front is located off the Lower Texas Coast, which moved through Deep South Texas earlier this morning. Tonight, rain chances increase with another surge of deep moisture moving northward across the area and should combine with enough lift along the 500mb trough axis. After the trough axis moves through on Thursday, rain chances essentially diminish by the early afternoon with clearing skies from west to east.
Latest surface analysis indicates a low pressure center having formed along the tail end of a sfc front which extends across central North Carolina southwest to coastal Texas.
A weak nearly stationary cold front is located along the coast this morning and is expected to meander through the afternoon before pusing across the waters tonight. This is due to the main upper level trough shifting east across the region and increasing upper level diffluence and bringing the RRQ of the jet across S TX. The front is progged to begin moving east across the coastal waters by late afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches the area. The upper trough and associated cold front are expected to exit the region by Thu morning with drier conditions filtering into S TX. A subsident W to NW flow is expected to dvlp behind the front and combine with clring skies to bring warmer temps to S TX on Thu.
Locally warmer along the I-25 corridor and lee of the Laramie Range due to low level winds. Dry weather prevails as the low and mid levels become more moist but still not enough to support precipitation initiation.
High pressure was centered over Missouri and extended westward into eastern Kansas. South to southwest winds have developed across north central Kansas on the back side of the high at 09Z where temperatures have slowly risen over the past couple of hours. High clouds will continue to stream northward today as an upper level low moves northeastward into western and central Kansas. Tonight with the approach of the upper trough and associated energy rotating around it expect to see an increase in low level moisture with southerly winds increasing in the 950mb-850mb layer.
The good news is that the low clouds will help to suppress the formation of dense fog at these locations with the exception of Upper and Central Yampa River Basin where dense fog is currently being reported. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a trough of low pressure centered over New Mexico and a storm system pushing into British Columbia.
350 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure will pass through the region tonight with some additional light snow.
Surface analysis showed a stationary frontal boundary draped roughly along the Highway 59 corridor. Lift associated with this trough axis will result in light rain spreading along the coast from the southwest. The bulk of the rain early Thursday morning looks to focus along the frontal boundary, which should be pushed into the Gulf with the approach/passage of the upper low's trough axis. May see period of fog (some dense) developing south of this frontal boundary as moisture continues to pool ahead of it Thursday morning before the front moves off the coast with the trough axis by Thursday afternoon.
Mostly sunny and warmer on Thursday, with afternoon highs climbing well into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
1249 PM PST Wed Jan 18 2017 Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will create treacherous driving conditions over much of the Inland Northwest today. Temperatures will gradually warm this afternoon and much of the region will be above freezing on Thursday. A chance of freezing rain has also been added to the Okanogan Valley. There will continue to be pockets of snow mixed with freezing rain this morning and into the early afternoon for the smaller airfields tucked away in the mountain valleys. The amount of freezing rain that occurs at KMWH will be dependent on if temperatures can warm up this evening, which is uncertain at this time.
It looks like the low clouds across the area will gradually lift and develop breaks through the day, especially northeast.
307 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 The low stratus that had affected much of the area has steadily eroded in the last few hours over eastern KS and western MO. Fortunately, it looks like temperatures should stay above freezing so if widespread/dense fog develops, there should not be an issue of icing and slick roads. The other issue over the next day to day and a half will be with the the large upper low slowly tracking to the northeast. Mainly, with it becoming more dynamic, it looks like it's able to draw more moisture and warmer temperatures north into the area.
A weak trough at H85 approaches the CWA overnight and stalls across the panhandle during the day Thursday. Moisture content is rather impressive to the south and east with dew points in the 30s and 40s, and south winds will keep drawing that air ahead of the trough. NAM soundings show near saturation in the lowest 100-150 hPa at KBBW and KONL.
Will let the High Wind Warning ride since Bordeaux is so close this morning. Dayshift may need to extend it roughly 6 hours longer into Thursday as that is when the lower level gradients are forecast to ease.
351 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 The quasi-stationary frontal boundary this afternoon has been waving back north as a warm front and is located from near KESF to KJAS. An upper level low is spinning over East New Mexico/West Texas. Disturbances moving ahead of the upper low are over-riding the front and interacting with the warm moist air mass (PWAT near 1. Wind dynamics are increasing ahead of the upper level low, with increasing shear along the frontal boundary. Rua Upper level low will gradually shift eastward tonight into Thursday with the trough axis associated with it becoming increasingly negatively tilted.
A few of these storms could linger into Thursday as an upper level axis of low pressure swings across the state.
153 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level analysis has Rex Blocking pattern across the Central and Northern Plains with large trof entering the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central CONUS with broad but weak low pressure across the Dakotas and eastern Wyoming and Montana. Tonight, weakening upper ridge remains in place with temperatures falling into the teens across the SD plains, and in the 20s across Northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Thursday, weak upper low shifts northeast, replaces upper ridge, and weakens as upper trough develops over the west.
1032 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017 Updated to end the dense fog advisory for portions of the lower Arkansas River Valley. There is some dense freezing fog along the lower Arkansas River Valley, from Pueblo to Lamar. By far, the area from Pueblo to Fowler is seeing the most dense freezing fog, while areas further east it is much more patchy. a broad upper level low pressure system stretching from northeastern New Mexico into western Kansas will slowly lift northeast by this evening, while high pressure over Utah moves into western Colorado overnight tonight. As high pressure begins to build across the region tonight, flow aloft will transition southwesterly. This should help keep temperatures slightly warmer along the eastern lee slopes with 20s and lower 30s for lows.
Temps should drop down into the lower 50s, just like last night. The high will slip away to the northeast U. Fog shouldn't form as lows will remain above crossover temperatures (afternoon dewpoint temperature) in the low 50s and little moisture return will take place overnight. The southern stream will carve out a significant trof/upper low over the western U.
1052 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley places our area in weak WAA with southerly flow in the low levels.
951 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Cooler and drier air on tap for tonight. High pressure to start the work week.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough off the Texas coast and a ridge extending from northern Mexico to Colorado. The upper level ridge will push to the east across Texas during this period.
1039 PM MDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Cold front moving quickly through the cwfa and will cross Rapid City by 10 PM. Current surface map places cold front from far northwest North Dakota into central Montana. Cold front will enter northwest South Dakota and northeast Wyoming this evening and then through the rest of western South Dakota overnight. Period of gusty northwest winds behind cold front with 3-hour pressure rises of 4-6mb. Much cooler on Monday with extensive cloud cover.
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 /00Z TAFS/ Stratus may affect KSOA and KJCT early to mid Monday morning as low level moisture returns from the Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Otherwise south wind gusts of 18 to 20 KTS possible Monday as a lee trough develops. /issued 339 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) An upper level ridge will be centered over northeast Texas through the next 24 hours, while an upper level trough dives south across the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures on Monday will be slightly above normal, mainly in the low 90s.
A system will drop down from the north and bring cooler than normal temperatures to our region over the next several days. Temperatures are running cooler than yesterday in almost all portions of our CWA as a system to our north continue to approach the region. Synoptically the system to the north will continue to progress to the south and advance cooler air with it.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large high pressure system centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. The surface cold front will slide into the northern Mississippi Valley by late in the afternoon. Temps should still rise into the low 70s north to upper 70s in the hot spots.
Nice early fall weather with generally sunny skies dominate the upper Midwest as high pressure moves east with temperatures mostly in the middle 70s.
After this morning's slightly cooler temps behind the front. we return to slightly warmer morning lows through the early part of the week with return flow setting up once more. leaving the coastal waters between high pressure over the sern CONUS and a weak low drifting wwd across the cntl Gulf.
Overnight lows should be similar to last night albeit a touch warmer, especially across central MO where there will be a longer duration of southerly flow around the back side of the departing high pressure center and perhaps even slightly stronger winds due to a slightly tighter pressure gradient ahead of a developing low pressure system over the plains. Similar to last night, river fog may develop again due to the interaction between a much cooler air mass in contact with the relatively warm river waters.
/issued 353 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016/ Weak upper level ridge has begun to shift east and southwest surface winds have brought temps into low/mid 80s on schedule across West Texas as of 3pm. Mid-level height falls begin to drop behind the exiting ridge while thicknesses remain relatively unchanged in the short term out ahead of the next system that is still working its way out of the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 50's north of Interstate 40 and the lower 60's to the south. Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from New England/Mid-Atlantic states then back through the Southeast United States and Southern Mississippi. A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring mainly rain free weather to the Mid-South tonight through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s with a few locations in Northeast Mississippi rising into the lower 90s.
100 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will move eastward across the region overnight then reach the New England coast by Monday evening.
Southwest flow will prevail through Monday as an upper trough deepens into the western Great Basin. This trough moves slowly east through mid week, bringing cooler temperatures and an increasing threat of showers. A surface boundary associated with this trough is forecast to sag southward across northern Utah during the day Monday.
High pressure will build north of the waters through the coming week continuing the onshore flow pattern.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from New England/Mid-Atlantic states then back through the Southeast United States and Southern Mississippi. A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring mainly rain free weather to the Mid-South tonight through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s with a few locations in Northeast Mississippi rising into the lower 90s.
Upper trough digging into the northern Intermountain West tonight will cause a fropa to occur by late tonight into Monday morning. The cooler temps on Monday along with moistening behind the front will end the fire weather threat for at least a few days. The highest pops (40-50 percent) will be over the northwestern half of Converse county during the evening. Kept the patchy fog in the fcst along the Cheyenne Ridge and southern Laramie Range.
The week ahead will turn much cooler due to a cold front that will come through on Monday and Monday night. Extra lift was supplied by a strong short wave that was ejected from the deep long wave trough digging into the southwest. The cold front will move out northwest Wisconsin Monday evening.
Overview: Large expanse of high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes down to the Gulf Coast leading to quiet weather overall. Temps may run a bit warmer across the northern and western part of the CWA thanks to increasing winds off the surface. Increasing SW flow will usher in warmer air and kick daytime highs into the mid and upper 70s, and a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the second half of September.
High pressure will be firmly in control across the region through Monday night, providing a continuation of dry weather. The airmass will start to modify through the period, so highs on Monday will return to the low to mid 80s. An upper level ridge will be the dominant feature across the southeastern Conus through the end of the work week. A short wave trough will move from the Midwest, to the Great Lakes, and eventually into the Saint Lawrence River Valley through the middle of the week. This will allow for a weakening cold front to drop southeast across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level low will open up across the western CONUS, with a positively tilted trough slowly shifting east across the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley by the end of the week.
638 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure will continue to push east across the Ohio Valley this evening, resulting in a steady southeast breeze across the region as the surface pressure gradient tightens slightly. Temperatures tonight will not be as cool as last night, though still pleasant, with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s east to low 60s west. The period starts off with a flat ridge in the upper levels over the southern states and an upper level trough moving southward out of Western Canada. The upper level trough will eventually break into two with the southwestern portion becoming cut off over the CA-NV border while the remainder continues eastward towards the Great Lakes.
1148 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Aviation High pressure over the Ohio Valley will drift east to the East Coast by Monday.
Upper level trough continues to dig deeper into the Northern Rocky Mountain region this evening.
The trough in the eastern Bahamas continues to track west and widely dispersed showers and some thunderstorms will continue across the Atlantic waters tonight and affect the Atlantic metro areas from time to time as they pass westward. There is generally good consensus amongst the global models that the trough will continue to track northwest along the Bahamas Islands chain over the next day or so and could be in the vicinity of the northwest Bahamas around 18z Monday then maybe off the coast of Palm Beach and Martin counties Monday night, but need to stress the uncertainties.
Sent an update tonight to incorporate the latest near and short term model data into the forecast for tonight into tomorrow - representing the band of rain behind the cold front oriented SW to NE through our CWA tonight. BMickelson The main story of the short-term period is the broad upper-level trough dropping out of Western Canada into the Pacific Northwest today. That trough will push a cold front mostly through Northeast Montana before 00Z this evening.
708 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Cold front has dropped south to near a Athens to LaGrange line. Cold front currently just south of ATL-AHN and will continue to drift south through the CWA.
911 PM MDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Cold front moving quickly through the cwfa and will cross Rapid City by 10 PM. Current surface map places cold front from far northwest North Dakota into central Montana. Cold front will enter northwest South Dakota and northeast Wyoming this evening and then through the rest of western South Dakota overnight. Period of gusty northwest winds behind cold front with 3-hour pressure rises of 4-6mb. Much cooler on Monday with extensive cloud cover.
The approach of an upper level trough will drive a cold front across northwest Nebraska overnight. The front will clear the sandhills region by midday Monday and provide for noticeably cooler temperatures and possibly some QPF. Longwave trough building into the western conus will be the main driver for northern and central plains weather this week. Trough will push cold front through western Nebraska on Monday and will be into northern Kansas Monday night.
High pressure ridge remains north of Florida with ESE flow averaging 10-15KT in the lowest surface-2KM. Sharp upper trough which has been in place NE of Florida the past few days is rapidly deforming from the influence of DLM Bermuda ridge to its east and short wave trough to its NW. A weak inverted trough over the SE Bahamas continued to move WNW toward the SE-East coast of Florida.
Monday will be significantly cooler than today with light to moderate northwest winds. Overall, model solutions are working out with the upper trough carving south-southwestward over our area this evening. Trough will form a closed low in northern California late Monday.
1145 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Skies have cleared across our entire CWA late this evening thanks to strong high pressure and plenty of dry air over Michigan. Overview: Large expanse of high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes down to the Gulf Coast leading to quiet weather overall. Temps may run a bit warmer across the northern and western part of the CWA thanks to increasing winds off the surface. Increasing SW flow will usher in warmer air and kick daytime highs into the mid and upper 70s, and a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the second half of September.
As the lee-trough becomes more well defined through the TAF cycle, more consistent southerly flow is expected to ensue. This will result in warmer temperatures by Monday morning and increasing humidity. The large scale weather pattern will begin to change Monday as upper level high pressure deamplifies and gets forced eastward by a developing western U. S upper trough. This low pressure system is progged to deepen and translate across the western half of the country through the week.
Building high pressure over the region will maintain mostly clear skies for most of the coming week. Thermal low pressure along the coast will bring occasional offshore flow, which will result in warmer temperatures as well.
(Issued 121 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016) Water vapor and streamflow analysis indicate a southwest flow aloft in advance of a slowly migrating trof axis from KY and TN into TX. At the surface, drier air was slowly advecting southward behind a cold front that was becoming nearly stationary in central MS and AL into northern GA. Dew points have dipped into the upper 50s in northwest AL into middle TN, but remain in the lower to middle 60s further south across northern AL.
That said, the pressure gradient remains quite strong across the forecast area tonight on the western flank of the high, keeping winds elevated and fog suppressed. However, drier air aloft and lack of forcing will keep the region dry through the afternoon, with only a gradual west to east increase in mid-high clouds ahead of an approaching cold front.
/issued 218 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016/ Weakness in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere combined remnant moisture from previous rainfall contributing to broken cu deck across much of North Louisiana and East Texas. At the surface, a cooler and drier airmass bringing a taste of autumn to the Four State Region with high temperatures this afternoon in the mid 80s. However, ridge to gradually weaken by midweek allowing for nearly zonal flow across the region. Disturbance in gulf to gradually weaken into a broad trough contributing to increased showers and thunderstorms across the region. Increased instability to generate sufficient cloud- cover and precipitation to limit high temperatures in the lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower 70s through the end of the workweek.
Red Flag Conditions are being met across the higher terrain of east-central Utah and northwest Colorado zones with much drier air and gusts of 30 to 35 mph being common. The southern areas were already seeing increasing showers as the lower atmosphere moisture had increased.
Sprawling cool high pressure is centered over the lower Great Lakes with mid- afternoon temperatures locally in the mid to upper 70s. No significant weather is expected through the short term as high pressure moves across lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic. Rural, valley locations may dip down in the lower 50s by sunrise Monday morning. Look for highs to top out in the low/mid 80s under mostly to partly sunny skies.