Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Drier air begins to move into the region tonight through Friday as midlevel ridging across the northern gulf slides farther west into Texas. Temperatures will gradually warm through the period, reaching the lower 90s today across most locations and the low to mid 90s Friday.
(Issued 306 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure extending from southern TX through much of the southeastern CONUS, while an upper level trough remained over the intermountain west. At the surface, temperatures were generally on track from the previous forecast (as of 2 am), with temps in the low to mid 70s. There might be a strong storm or two, though the highest threat with any storm that develops today will be locally heavy rain and lightning.
A weak upper low currently centered over Northern California will shift southward today.
929 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front over the area will drift off to the southeast today to allow weak high pressure to briefly build over the region through friday before shifting to the southeast.
This jet, along with the theta-e associated with the high MUCAPEs, will shift east this morning as a low in the western Dakotas shifts east as well.
North winds behind a cold front that moved through the forecast area yesterday have diminished overnight. The forecast area will see dry weather for part of today in between systems with much cooler temperatures. A deeper upper trough currently moving south across the Canadian Prairies will move into Montana this evening with a secondary cold front. This system has plenty of moisture especially near the base of the trough over Central and Western Montana where strong upper level dynamics are expected. Rain chances will diminish from north to south during the day as high pressure builds into the area from the north.
Upper level analysis at 500mb shows some ridging developing along the coast but it is rather flat and elongated.
High pressure will build back into the region through the period. /issued 420 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): (Today through Friday): Even fewer showers and thunderstorms are noted this morning over the coastal waters and near shore areas as high pressure builds back westward. and the 00Z sounding noted the lower moisture values in the mid levels.
This afternoon, an advancing upper level trough digs across the northern Plains, while a cold front drops across southeast South Dakota. Main severe threat will be in the highway 14 corridor, and extending into south central SD. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. With the cooler air mass moving in, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers on Friday, will be a hard time for temperatures to recover. Once the upper trough shifts through the area on Friday night, the precipitation chances appear to decrease.
Temps at 850 mb are expected to climb to around 20c by Friday afternoon will be tempered somewhat by the increasing cloudiness ahead of the trough.
652 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 As expected, the low clouds are winning out over fog except in a very few fairly isolated locations. The shear zone gets wiped out by Friday afternoon, as a more substantial mid/upper-level trough approaches the area from the west.
Modest warming trend heading into the weekend as high pressure builds. The upper low will keep large scale gradients light but enough inland heating will occur to induce a moderately strong afternoon seabreeze across the Bay Area valleys. Will be watching upper low as models hint at some moisture trying to come off the Sierra and rotate westward each of the next few afternoons. ECMWF solution shows heights building in excess of 590 dm over the weekend with a flat ridge in place.
Expect temperatures similar to yesterday's readings, or possibly a few degrees cooler.
Low pops retained in northwest tonight as storms could move in from the higher terrain. Pops increase notably Friday afternoon and Friday night along and ahead of cold front which should move through the northwest 1/3 of the forecast area Friday, before sweeping through remaining sections Friday night.
Temperatures are ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. A frontal boundary associated with a deep upper trof that will move across the Central U.
Mid-level ridging is in the process of gradually weakening, while the main moisture axis is gradually sinking southward but still generally remaining north and northwest of the area. Placement of low and mid- level ridging suggests sea breeze associated convection should mainly stay south of the forecast area except perhaps in the far southwest. Microburst parameters remain in the low to low-end moderate category with the relatively highest potential southeast. But I do think that the better rain chances, on a whole, will come Friday and into the weekend, as the southeast states upper level ridge weakens a bit and a cold front pushes down into our area from the north.
1102 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Thunderstorms today and tonight will be mainly associated with a moisture increase from the west, strong heating, and convergence into the lee-side trough. The upper ridging has weakened a little but it should continue to help limit coverage with h5 temperatures -6 to -7 C. Precipitable water will be around 2 inches and there should be a relatively slow storm movement associated with the upper ridging. We again followed the high maximum temperature guidance based on the bias of late and upper ridging.
Fog to dissipate by 9 am, then dry and warmer weather expected across the forecast area today. Highs will be in the low 80s to the south and east of metro area with around 90 degrees over central and northeast Missouri. Byrd Tonight, another mild night expected with a chance for some storms to bubble up over far southern portions of forecast area late as a warm front develops and begins to lift northward. By Friday night, cold front finally moves into northwestern Missouri and slides east across the area.
633 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Main forecast concern in the short term will be timing of cold front on Friday. At 07z the cold front was just starting to enter the northern plains region with a stronger push southward across eastern Montana. Low pressure was located over northwest South Dakota. After that, at least for tonight, the front slows its southward progression into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper flow with a better push south into western Nebraska as initial piece of short wave energy drops into the region ahead of the main trough. System is expected to move off late Friday night as progressive upper trough sweeps through the region.
Expect another round of primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms with activity favoring the higher terrain. Winds aloft remain light although storms should show an east southeast drift today as influences of the northern rockies trough start arriving. This will send a little cooler conditions across the northern zones for Friday and provide for a bit more shear in the wind department for Friday afternoon and evening.
Moisture will increase as a weak cold front pushes in.
/issued 500 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Most of the area will be dry today with slightly cooler temperatures behind the front that went through the area yesterday.
1013 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a weak crossing cold front. A weak cold front will approach the upper Ohio Valley today. Will increase PoPs to likely category just ahead of front, but most of the day will see PoPs in the low chance range. In addition, pre-frontal cloud cover will aid in keeping the lower atmosphere relatively stable, hence confidence in thunder remains low.
835 AM MST Tue Apr 11 2017 Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring warming temperatures through the middle part of this week as well as very dry conditions. Lighter winds and continued above normal temperatures will return for the upcoming weekend as high pressure once again reestablishes itself over the region. Given the fact that the cirrus appears to be thin enough (for the most part) to allow a good deal of solar radiation to get through to the sfc, still expecting highs to warm up into the upper 80-low 90 range across the lower deserts today. A deep Pacific upper level trough just south of the Aleutian Islands is set to move southeastward later today, becoming nearly stationary off the Pacific Northwest coast through the remainder of the week. As this trough deepens on Wednesday, heights aloft over our region will build.
As of now, the only area that looks to reach the lower 80s is the Acadiana region where partly sunny skies are expected. /issued 424 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ IR satellite imagery shows deep convection has developed along a cold front extending across central Texas during the overnight hours. The thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish this evening heading into the overnight hours as the cold front is forecast to stall and undergo frontolysis north of coastal waters.
Augustine but as surface heating increases expected this moisture will lift into a SCT cloud deck with mostly to partly sunny skies across the forecast area today under mean layer high pressure. Cirrus will pass across SE GA today ahead of an approaching short wave mid/upper level trough. Breezy onshore winds will near 15 mph along the coast by midday with the east coast sea breeze with highs warming into the lower 80s inland to mid- upper 70s coast.
935 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure ridge across the area will remain in control of the region today with a weak cold front arriving Wednesday.
/issued 332 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ Early morning analyses showed a low pressure system over the western Great Lakes states and associated front extending southwestward into Texas. With the low lifting out into Canada, along with height falls off the west coast and downstream height rises over much of the CONUS, expect this front to dissipate over the next couple of days far to the north of Florida. Otherwise high pressure is in control over the western North Atlantic and this will continue for much of the week.
920 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A dry subsident air mass associated with deep layered ridging over the region will support another dry day across the forecast area. Temperatures will again rise to a few degrees above normal with highs climbing to around 80 to the lower 80s along the coast, and mid 80s inland.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 950 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will approach the area this morning and move through this afternoon and this evening.
633 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Freezing temperatures with a cold start this morning and temperatures today. The low clouds at 08Z were just south of LNK with freezing temperatures across much of the forecast area save for far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa and range from 23 degrees for the cold spot at 08Z of 23 degrees at OLU. Lows will not be as cold in the lower 40s.
1222 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A weak cold front slowly crosses today into Wednesday morning.
1001 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure remains off the Mid Atlantic coast as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. A cold front crosses the region Wednesday.
mainly clear skies over the region with temperatures currently ranging in the lower to mid 30s. The trough will begin to shift eastward into the Plains region late in the day. then shift to more central and eastern locales late in the day as the trough shifts east and eventually meanders over eastern Colorado/extreme NW Kansas/SW Nebraska. the trough over the Front Range takes up a SW/NE orientation over the CWA. allowing central/eastern zones to remain on the east side of the trough well into Wednesday. tapering to showers along the SE corridor w/ high pressure building into the NW.
/issued 241 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ Current conditions across the midsouth were fairly quiet for the moment as today's cold front begins to enter the far northwest counties. the Midsouth will remain under low amplitude ridging through the period.
907 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will push east across the area today, as low pressure over the central Great Lakes moves northeast.
1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Clouds will stick around through this evening as low pressure spins over eastern Lake Superior. Light westerly winds will prevail today, then become variable overnight due to high pressure drifting overhead. A developing WAA regime takes hold which erodes the lingering influence of low level thermal trough. Temps will get a boost over the chill of Tuesday though onshore flow will keep lakeside areas on the cooler side.
1103 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A weak cold front was located from near Detroit southwest across western Kentucky then southwest into eastern Texas late this morning. Temperatures are already in the upper 60s to the lower 70s at late morning. Winds will be southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts in the higher elevations up to 25 mph at times.
Today will be a pleasant spring day across the entire Northern Rockies, albeit somewhat cooler than normal by 5-8 degrees. A large upper low off the Pacific NW coast will approach the mainland and impact the Northern Rockies later this evening through Wednesday by ushering in moisture from a southwest flow.
Some warm air advection this morning will bring warmer, more seasonal, temperatures to the area. Generally dry and milder conditions will continue for the second half of the week as a weak ridging pattern remains over the region.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern NEB with the frontal boundary stretched from northwestern AR through central TX. There should be plenty of sunshine today but mixing of the boundary layer may be limited with the ridge axis over eastern KS for much of the day. So there isn't much in the way of warm air advection or warmer temps to mix to the surface. Parts of northeast KS may stay in the lower 60s due to the proximity of the high pressure center. Feel somewhat uncertain in storms able to develop this far east until perhaps during the overnight period as the upper trough approaches the cwa from the southwest.
The going temperature forecast in the upper 60s into the lower 70s looks good.
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will persist near Bermuda through tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.
/issued 424 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ IR satellite imagery shows deep convection has developed along a cold front extending across central Texas during the overnight hours. The thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish this evening heading into the overnight hours as the cold front is forecast to stall and undergo frontolysis north of coastal waters.
The upper low will continue heading east this morning and drier air will follow, clearing the clouds relatively quickly across Minnesota.
Clouds increased over the Mid-State overnight, in advance of a cold front that was located over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri at 08z. As cold front drops into northern parts of the Mid-State today, showers and thunderstorms will become widespread over northwestern and north-central areas, trending mainly scattered activity in areas further east and south. Cold front weakens tonight, as high pressure, over the Ohio River Valley bridges across it--putting our entire area in light northerly flow by 06z. Upper level ridge builds over the southeastern United States into the middle and latter part of the week.
648 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure that covers most of Nebraska & KS has produced a mostly clear & chilly night across KICT Country. Temperatures across most of Central KS have settled into the lower & mid 30s where a Frost Advisory is in effect for areas generally NW of a line from Great Bend to Salina until 9 AM CDT. Best chances for rain would occur Thu & Thu Night as a somewhat stronger mid-upr trof takes on a negative tilt as it pushes E/NE across KS & Nebraska. Fri-Sat: There'll be a brief rainfall intermission as the negatively- tilted mid-upr trof shears as it approaches the Mid-MS Valley.
This will keep the immediate coast a bit cooler, with high temperatures elsewhere in the mid 80s. As far as rain chances go, the ridge aloft will suppress most shower activity over the forecast area, but a few showers from the Atlantic side could reach some of our inland areas tomorrow.
Current package generally on track, with highs in the low to mid 80s still expected over most of the FA.
1102 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front extending south from low pressure over Michigan will move east across Pennsylvania this evening through early Wednesday.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast and a trough is moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A low is over the Great Lakes with a nearly stationary cold front stretched from Michigan to Texas. Highs will be in the low 80s.
A moderate easterly flow will continue across the region today, with axis of high pressure ridge north of the area. (Previous Discussion) A high pressure ridge extending from offshore North Carolina into north Florida will maintain a moderate east breeze over the waters.
1246 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will linger over the western Atlantic through midweek.
Cold front is hung up very close to the Ohio River, with a broken band of showers out ahead of it. High pressure then should build into the Midwest and move north of our area Wednesday.
632 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 An area of low pressure passing north of the region today will bring a few passing clouds to this CWA.
An impressive upper wave trough will lift northeast today with an accompanying warm front tracking through the interior NW. A low pressure system off the northern California coast will send a warm front through our area as the system tracks east then north along the Oregon coast. Warmer air arrives behind the warm front with highs on Wednesday in the 60s to lower 70s in the Treasure/Western Magic Valleys. The next (larger) Pacific trough will approach the west coast on Wednesday. Moisture will increase ahead of the trough as showers will work back into SE Oregon and portions of SW Idaho, excluding most of the Treasure/Western Magic Valleys and along the ID/NV border.
1236 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A trough of low pressure moves into the region this afternoon. Summer like temperatures will continue today until the trough passes.
H2O loop is showing exiting trough (main impacts have remained well north) which should put CWFA in a more subsident pattern. We have plenty of instability, but shear is not strong and thus we could get a few storms to pulse up but the severe concern should be limited to isolated at best, especially since heating may not be maximized with clouds for most of the day (and impact from the upper ridge get closer). Wednesday looks much drier and slightly warmer.
Weak warm advection along with modest mixing should be able to hold minimums at or a bit above freezing.
747 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will linger over the western Atlantic through midweek.
A few showers continue in the vicinity of this boundary, with more stratiform precipitation over the lower delta region of AR/MS. As the boundary layer destabilizes today, convection should become more widespread along the cold front. /issued 241 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ Current conditions across the midsouth were fairly quiet for the moment as today's cold front begins to enter the far northwest counties. the Midsouth will remain under low amplitude ridging through the period.
Rain will arrive overnight and continue Wednesday morning as a low pressure system reaches the Washington coast.
A cold front will continue to slowly move through central and southern Arkansas today. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper level ridge is currently over the east coast with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and Central Plains. This upper trough will continue to move east today. By tonight, some ridging begins developing over the Plains. A cold front is across northwest Arkansas at this time and slowly moving southeast. Another cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday night so will keep small rain chances in the west.
1000 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will continue to extend into Eastern NC from the Atlantic through tomorrow.
/Issued 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ High pressure moving east out of the area as frontal boundary moves into the region from the MS river valley. 01 A weak cold front is expected to be across the area Wednesday night and is expected to dissipate.
South-southwest flow aloft increases Wednesday and Wednesday night as the incoming Pacific trough moves onto the west coast with low level winds shifting to the S/SE across much of the forecast area ahead of a developing low pressure trough over western MT/ID.
751 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Aviation Dry weather is forecast today through Wednesday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes from the west.
This system will bring a colder air mass with it, with 850 mb temps below freezing moving in Wednesday evening.
Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring warming temperatures through the middle part of this week as well as very dry conditions. Lighter winds and continued above normal temperatures will return for the upcoming weekend as high pressure once again reestablishes itself over the region. A deep Pacific upper level trough just south of the Aleutian Islands is set to move southeastward later today, becoming nearly stationary off the Pacific Northwest coast through the remainder of the week. As this trough deepens on Wednesday, heights aloft over our region will build.
Mid-level ridging will make for a much quieter night tonight into Wednesday morning, but the progressive flow will assure the respite is short-lived.
As the high moves east away from the area tonight, winds will become from the south.
Temps look decent despite a much warmer night in the southeast, under the VFR deck. Weak warm advection along with modest mixing should be able to hold minimums at or a bit above freezing.
Easterly winds right off the deck near 20 knots at 1K feet reach above the inversion to near 15K feet as high pressure remains in place across the western Atlantic through the Southeast U. Northeast to east winds are near the morning peak across Dry Tortugas through Smith Shoal, and along the Lower Keys Reef near 20 knots, with slightly lower winds further up the chain.
An area of low pressure passing north of the region today will bring a few passing clouds to this CWA.
This is most unstable amounts, and is probably on the high side given the weak lapse rates in the mid and upper levels.
At upper levels, a smaller scale upper level low was over the Alberta/Saskatchewan/MT border with weak zonal flow aloft over ND.
647 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Cold front will continue to push off to the south and east further away from the CWA during the day today. These low clouds combined with modest cold advection aloft yield high temperatures today about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday and leaned aob the slightly cooler MET guidance for today's high temperatures. High pressure will then dominate the sensible weather for the tonight period as it will be centered across western Illinois early this evening. Lows in the low to mid 40s seem reasonable but again leaned cool given the synoptic setup and upstream readings.
It may change to freezing drizzle or drizzle before ending as mid level moisture exits the region.