Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cooler air mass is associated with the high as a warmer air mass is located to the west. As a result a decent temperatures gradient has setup across the area as temperatures currently range from the lower 40s across central Missouri to the upper 50s across far southwestern Missouri during the mid afternoon hours. The pressure gradient will tighten some across the are on Saturday as the high pressure slides off to the east and a system approaches from the west. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 50s on Saturday under mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trough and cold front will move across region Satruday night into Sunday. An upper level ridge will build over the region during the early and middle portions of the week, allowing a warmer air mass to spread into the area.
211 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas.
1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper analysis shows a large ridge over the western CONUS, with a 90 kt jet over the northern plains in northwest flow. Another warm and dry day is expected, as the upper ridge shifts over the Rockies. Tuesday will be hot, with highs around 90, as the thermal ridge shifts over the area. The upper ridge will break down Tuesday as a wave pushes into the region, and convection will initiate across western SD during the afternoon. The trough will quickly push into the eastern Dakotas, and most of the activity will also shift east into central SD by early evening. However, some additional storms will possible across western SD with the cold front later Tuesday evening.
231 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper level high pressure ridge over the region will bring hot conditions to Montana today. Later tonight, a surface cold front will sweep across the state with a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The front will bring cooler temperatures with it on Tuesday.
With upper ridge in place and very little surface flow. upper ridge in place over the Plains region. with a strong surface gradient setting up with low pressure west. increased instability on strong WAA with bring temps into the low 90s.
159 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front crosses Tuesday morning.
330 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. Wly flow aloft a result of central NC being in the base of broad upper level trough will maintain fair and dry conditions tonight. The approach of a minor s/w will sharpen the trough overnight, lowering heights 30-40m. Current CAM solutions are a little too robust considering current coverage across the lower Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley. High temps Tuesday upper 70s NW to the low-mid 80s southeast.
Dry weather is on tap for the rest of the week along with cooler temperatures.
213 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. Cooling mid levels as the upstream longwave trough axis approaches from the west will support isolated shower coverage this afternoon. Overnight, more substantial precip coverage is likely to develop as the trough axis crosses the forecast area. Cold troughing will keep isolated showers in play through the morning but will diminish by the afternoon with the upper trough axis to the east.
349 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Enough moisture and instability sneaking underneath the ridge of high pressure has lended itself to a bit more thunderstorm coverage than expected today. Hot and dry conditions are prevailing elsewhere with high pressure remaining in control. However, smoke from the Brian Head wildfire in southwest Utah near Cedar City will continue to settle back into the lower elevations of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, so introduced areas of smoke back in the forecast for this evening through Tuesday morning. An upper low over British Columbia will track into Alberta and eject a disturbance across eastern Utah and western Colorado late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
328 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Another cool and dry summer afternoon remains in place across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures in the low-mid 70s and dewpoints comfortably sitting in the mid 40s-mid 50s. Moisture will be very limited and confined to top-down moistening, as surface ridging moves south into the Tennessee Valley. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday afternoon as the axis of the mid level trough swings through eastern Kentucky. Given steepening lapse rates owing to lower heights with the base of the trough overhead, isolated thunder chances will be in the offing until a weak cool front pushes through by mid-late afternoon and shuts off any additional chances for precipitation.
Due to this the high temperatures have been dropped 3-5 degrees into the low to mid 70s to account for the colder airmass, cloud coverage, and precipitation. The clear skies will allow enough nocturnal cooling with temps into the lower to mid 50s creating the possibility of lower visibilities in fog near sunrise, especially over areas that got precipitation today.
/issued 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ There is an upper ridge over the southwest part of the country with an upper trough over the Great Lakes area. This will allow for a plentiful supply of low level moisture across the area with a chance of storms mainly across the higher terrain.
Upper level low/cold pool (-25 C at 500 MB) sliding through southeast Michigan this evening. Surface dew pts started out in the lower 50s early this morning, but have mixed down into the 40s, limiting SBCAPES to 500 J/kg or less. However, isolated thunderstorms remain possible, especially across Lake St Clair and western Lake Erie, as warmer waters provide a moisture boost, and max negative showalter values seen tracking through that area early this evening.
223 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The high pressure ridge over eastern Idaho will move east as a Pacific low pressure trough moving into the Pacific Northwest coast spreading southwest winds across the area tonight and Tuesday.
147 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. High pressure will provide dry weather at midweek with increasing precipitation chances toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Tuesday afternoon will be dry with highs again in the lower to mid 70s.
354 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An appraisal of geostationary satellite imagery this afternoon reveals mostly sunny skies across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters, with narrow lines of shallow cumulus streaming northwestward off the islands of the lower Florida Keys. Currently, air temperatures are in the upper 80s in most Keys island communities with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and heat indices in the lower 100s. The large-scale weather pattern features weak flow in the upper troposphere, a weakening lower- and mid-tropospheric subtropical anticyclone over the western North Atlantic, and diminishing east-southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters.
This will allow temperatures to cool off tonight, with many locations inland cooling to the low 40s tonight. Actually, with ideal radiational cooling, its not out of the question that a few of the typically cooler locations may see a few upper 30 degree readings. Models suggest a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with a transition toward zonal flow during the middle of the week and troughing through the north cntrl CONUS this weekend as a mid level low moves from Alberta to the nrn Great Lakes.
322 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The cool air will continue through tomorrow as an upper low moves slowly through the Great Lakes.
/issued 1045 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ Water vapor imagery shows a trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the US this morning, with a couple of weak disturbances moving around this trough. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for today, with temperatures running a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. /issued 305 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ Tight upper ridge ovhd, as seen by isold showers wrapping around center to the south and west of the cwa, and mid lvl cloud decks movg eastward across se OK and central AR around topside of ridge.
309 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Cooler temps aloft noticeable today with convective activity bubbling up much sooner than previous days.
409 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Continental high pressure in place to provide a much needed dry period with much appreciated lower humidity levels tonight through Tuesday. The high moves eastward while becoming fortified by another surge from Canada but the west gulf region falls on the fringe of the migrating high to onset the return flow by later in the day Tuesday.
High pressure over the area bringing clear skies however nw flow aloft over far northeast is brining some clouds down over Lake of the Woods/Roseau/Beltrami county region so have increased sky accordingly. Minimal weather impacts today as a cool Canadian high pressure brings light winds and a dry airmass to the northern plains. Breezy south winds will develop Tuesday with boundary layer responding to broad area of low pressure across the western Dakotas. These south winds will bring a warmer airmass to the area and combined with full solar highs will be in the 80s across portions of eastern ND and upper 70s elsewhere.
233 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
310 PM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Temperatures will begin trending cooler this week along with dry conditions. Water vapor images show wind flow aloft turning West due to an upper trough moving through North California. Temperatures running much cooler today due to a stronger onshore flow and synoptic cooling with the trough. A couple of additional disturbances will move through the Pacific Northwest suppressing a ridge south towards the Baja Peninsula. Models prog the upper ridge rebuilding northward over the East Pacific for the latter part of the week. The warmup may be mitigated during the weekend with the extended models indicating a weak upper trough moving through the PacNW and cutting off over CA. The lower temperatures may slow the runoff of melting snow from the Sierra and help to alleviate some of the flooding concerns downstream.
411 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Frontal boundary is draped across the north Central peninsula this afternoon, pushing the ridge axis further south into our region.
248 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A weak disturbance, rotating around the upper low over the Great Lakes region, will affect our area this evening and into the overnight hours.
Cold front that is over southeast Nebraska will continue to move southeast into Kansas.
Today marks the last day with area weather influenced by cyclonic flow on the periphery of the mid/upper trough dominating the eastern half of the CONUS, although the effects will be less notable than they were over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be sliding into MN from the Dakotas. This will make for much lighter winds than experienced the last couple of days, with speeds generally around 10 kts or less (with west central WI on the higher end of the range).
123 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. Another, albeit deeper trough is projected across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Cold troughing will persist through Tuesday but changes are projected to ensue thereafter with moderating temperatures as flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging across Western Canada.
More sun and low level warm air advection should allow for warmer afternoon temperatures than previously forecast. It still appears the highest rain chances (30-40%) will remain over western north Texas this afternoon, though ongoing cloud cover has limited heating and destabilization so far in western north Texas. Believe western north Texas will have the highest chances for rainfall this afternoon where moisture is deeper (precipitable water values 1. Hard to tie showers over southern Oklahoma to anything other than lingering mid-level moist layer, with activity over southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma an extension of passing wave/speed max moving around Great Lakes upper low.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A weakness aloft persists over the west Gulf, with an inverted trough analyzed at the surface. Garden variety tropical showers and thunderstorms will be the norm, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s to the lower to mid 90s.
359 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A generally zonal mid level flow pattern prevails across our forecast area this afternoon on the base of a broad upper level trough that extends across much of the eastern CONUS.
347 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. High pressure will provide dry weather at midweek with increasing precipitation chances toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. highs again in the lower to mid 70s. Tuesday will be dry with rather cool highs from the lower 70s northeast to the mid 70s southwest.
(Tuesday night through Monday) Upper level ridging will strengthen over the region once again by the middle of the week, leading to hotter and drier conditions.
A weak upper trough will cross the region tonight and Tuesday.
444 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Aviation section updated A surface and upper level trough will move through the area this afternoon and this evening, perhaps bringing a spotty shower or thunderstorm to portions of the area.
110 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will linger near the coast or just offshore through Tuesday.
121 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an upper trough will lingers over the Great Lakes region.
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west. An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week. A long awaited cold front is situated northeast to southwest from just south of Wilmington to just north of Kingstree South Carolina. I opted for the slightly warmer MET numbers for daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s.
A trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest tonight will bring drier southwest winds over Arizona on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest is pushing drier air over western Arizona today.
A sharp upper level trough will move across the region on Tuesday.
The main ridge axis has pushed as far east as Billings. Overnight through mid-day tomorrow a cold front will moves across the area. The low levels will remain dry so the main hazard is strong winds.
Lower PWs in the northern counties of the CWA, with drier conditions indicated on the low to mid level water vapor satellite imagery, will hinder the development of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Low temperatures tonight will be around normal for this time of year, dropping down into the lower 70s further inland near College Station and upper 70s near Galveston. At 500 mb, an area of high pressure continues to slide in from the west as we move into Tuesday, but should recede back by Tuesday night.
Near stationary frontal boundary will slowly sink South across region through Tuesday as high pressure builds to the Northwest. Daytime temperatures will be a little cooler than normal this period due to the coverage of clouds and precipitation.
Gusty southeast winds will continue to blow across northeast Montana through the evening hours as high pressure at the surface pushes eastward toward Minnesota. Again isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible by the afternoon hours supported by an upper level disturbance associated with an upper trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan.
This activity is associated with a small-scale trough over the Great Lakes region rounding the main large-scale Hudson Bay low. Upper ridge that has been positioned over the western Conus will get a nudge to move on by a northern stream trough moving into British Columbia. The ridge will begin to break down and place the local region in more of a zonal flow pattern mid to late week. As this trough moves past the Rockies and out onto the Northern Plains, the associated surface cold front will work its way through the rest of the Plains states.
541 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. Cold troughing will keep isolated showers in play through the morning but will diminish by the afternoon with the upper trough axis to the east.
An upper level trough will move through the area over the weekend bringing a slight chance of showers to parts of the area.
high pressure aloft will start to shift eastward across Colorado with westerly flow developing statewide late tonight. the upper ridge will shift east into the Central Plains tomorrow with westerly zonal flow increasing across the area through the afternoon.
The low dew point temperatures from this afternoon, from the upper 30s to middle 40s, and the expected radiational cooling suggest temperatures could make a run for that range of temperatures overnight. The forecast lows are in the lower to middle 40s. Tuesday: The ridge axis will exit east, and there will be lowering pressure from the west. Leaned on the warmer model guidance, such as the bias-corrected consensus of the GFS and NAM MOS. However, for the most part, the threat of showers and storms will generally hold off until later Tuesday night when the low pressure to the west further advances towards the Northland. The highest precipitable water values are forecast to be south of our CWA, although we should see PWAT values on the order of 1.
302 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 As of 19Z, an upper level trough continues to slowly push eastward across the Great Lakes region. Tuesday: high pressure will push into the Mississippi Valley by midday Tuesday, allowing return flow for the southern and central Plains. Dew points will surge into the low and middle 60s. High temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 80s. By the afternoon, an upper trough will begin its push towards the northern and central Plains. Thunderstorms look to develop in the foothill of the Rockies along a weak cold front.
For tonight, clear skies but return flow, although light in and east of the valley, will keep overnight lows much warmer than last night. A broad low pressure system will begin to move into wrn Dakotas tomorrow and a tightening pressure gradient over western zones should bring 25 to 30 mph gusts to western zones. Tuesday night will see a 500 mb short wave trough and associated surface front move east through eastern ND and the RRV with the frontal system moving thru NW MN 12z-18z Wed period.
With more clearing and breezy winds, temps Tuesday will be in the low 90s.
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Tonight and Tuesday: Quiet, cooler than average conditions will continue to prevail over the ArkLaMiss through tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures overnight will fall to the lower to mid 60s. However, dewpoints in the low 60s will make for another pleasant day.
The southern Indiana counties could get down to the low 50s if clouds clear out quick enough toward dawn.
316 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Much drier and cooler air mass remains has settled over the area as high pressure dominates. Expect building cirrus overnight tonight into Tuesday as a series of upper level impulses traverse an approaching upper level trough. Even with the trough, little convective development is expected due to the abnormally dry high pressure at the surface. The ridge gradually moves east.
145 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. Our coolest airmass will be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trof axis moves across the area, perhaps accompanied by a few showers.
415 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area tonight into Tuesday morning.
The main concern is placement of the low level jet and orientation of the strong theta-e ridge /85h- 70h/, which may displace the core of the convection either north or south of MPX forecast area.
Looks to be a weak surface front/trough laid out across southern Nebraska with a few storms developing along this feature over south central/sw Nebraska. The good news with the pattern remaining active is that an upper ridge never gets to take hold, which means temps will remain close to or slightly below normal for this time of year. Isolated storms may develop along an outflow boundary over east- central Kansas late this afternoon, and along a weak, southward moving cold front sliding southward to near I-70 by 23 UTC.
Low clouds do remain in these areas so have adjusted cloud cover wording until the low clouds burn off. High temperatures today in the low 80s. Models continue to advertise an upper trough axis to move into far eastern Colorado in the 3PM MDT to 6 PM MDT timeframe with showers and thunderstorms possible. The trough axis continues east through midnight and should be out of the area by if not before sunrise. 850mb temperatures from the past 5 days support high temperatures in the low to upper 90s while nearly all other guidance is several degrees cooler.
Multiple Risks for Svr Tstms this Week with Greatest Coverage Aloft: The Westerlies were moderately amplified with a ridge over the Wrn USA. a trof over the E and cyclonic NW flow between over the Plns. This low will weaken and cont E as a trof tonight into tomorrow and arrive into MT/WY after midday. This will force the Wrn ridge to deamplify and move over the CWA tomorrow. The tail end of this trof will cross the CWA Tue night. Significant Wx: Cold frontal passage this afternoon with WSHFT to NE.
The showery and cool pattern will finally break Tuesday, with plenty of sunshine expected under high pressure.
Current KEMX radar imagery shows thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson, primarily across the higher terrain. The expectation is most of the convection will remain east of Tucson, with the metro area being on the western fringe as the storms move south off the higher terrain such as the Catalinas.
South and west of this feature, potent upper level ridging persists from the Southern Rockies into northern Mexico, bringing an extended bout of extreme heat to parts of the southwestern U. Weak mid/upper level ridging will remain across the area through the period. Meanwhile at the surface a stalled out front across north Florida at the start of the period will dissipate with high pressure moving across the eastern U.
402 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front crosses Tuesday morning.
220 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Today is turning out to be the quiet day as expected with a ridge moves overhead.
Superblend dewpoints begin to rise into the 50s to around 60 across central North Dakota Tuesday afternoon along a warm frontal boundary. An EML moves over southwest North Dakota and this should help temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s and at the same time provide a CAP to convection until late afternoon. Will hold off on the mention of severe weather until Tuesday evening when the cold front breaks the CAP. NAM/GFS models do bring in a narrow band of significant CAPE between 2 and three thousand along the cold front.
Upper low is moving into northern California and will continue to move northeast across the region later this afternoon and evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and continue through the evening as the low moves through. A weather system and cold front will move into the region today bringing scattered showers and afternoon/evening isolated thunderstorms.