Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight lows will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night with upper 50s to lower 60s for the lower elevations across the forecast area. Hooley Ridging will continue into tomorrow, but a trough will start to shift the pattern tomorrow afternoon. Wednesday will be another warm day, with highs a few degrees warmer today, with much of the area in to the lower 90s. During the afternoon, as the trough start to push into the area, showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop mostly west of Billings. The GFS is still a little more sharp with the trough, but there is still a little better agreement between it and the ECMWF.
As the front reaches the front reaches the ridges in the east this evening, there may be an additional lift owing to the upslope. A belt of stronger wind will be maintained aloft on the srn fringe of a closed upper low that will meander across south-central Canada. Lingering mid-level troughing will lead to cooler daily temperature on Wed and Thu, with maxima likely struggling eclipse the mid-upper 70s. For much of the weekend, the Ohio Valley region will remain between an assertive sern-CONUS ridge and a persistent low in ern Canada. Periodic showers and restriction potential should continue through Thu under an upper-level trough. Restriction potential returns Sat with low pressure.
A few isolated showers/ storms are possible, mainly across the higher terrain. Upper-level ridging builds into the region for Wednesday, giving way to much warmer conditions as H7 temperatures climb to +12 to +14 deg C.
By mid-morning clouds were forming as another MCS was dropping out of Ok like yesterday around an upper level low. With the upper level low to our northwest and the ridge of high pressure at surface to the east moisture will continue to stream into the region over the next several days.
Surface cold front has pushed east of the forecast area this afternoon. As expected, temperatures have warmed back into the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the region. For Wednesday, we'll be within the base of an upper level trough axis. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s region wide. Issued at 250 PM Tue Jun 23 2020 A 5H closed low over the Great Lakes will slowly meander northward from midweek through the weekend. By Wednesday night, the upper level trough axis will lie N-S over the Ohio Valley with high pressure building in the lower level.
807 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 A cold front will cross the Mid-Atlantic tonight into Wednesday, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
In the upper levels, we have a large scale trough centered over the Great Lakes and Ontario.
610 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 A vort max is descending south across Minnesota this afternoon on the back end of a mid level trough centered over the Great Lakes. The trough will lift out late week with heights building behind it.
The front is exiting into the eastern ridges as of 02Z this evening. As the front reaches the ridges in the east this evening, there may be an additional lift owing to the upslope. A belt of stronger wind will be maintained aloft on the srn fringe of a closed upper low that will meander across south-central Canada. Lingering mid-level troughing will lead to cooler daily temperature on Wed and Thu, with maxima likely struggling eclipse the mid-upper 70s. For much of the weekend, the Ohio Valley region will remain between an assertive sern-CONUS ridge and a persistent low in ern Canada. Periodic showers and restriction potential should continue through Thu under an upper-level trough. Restriction potential returns Sat with low pressure.
Strong high pressure for hotter than normal temperatures into this weekend.
1049 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Considerable cloud cover persists across the region this afternoon on the backside of a large upper trough over the Great Lakes.
Early this afternoon a broad upper level trough was located across the east central US.
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 As of early this morning, an upper level trough was located over the Great Lakes region with ridging over the southwest CONUS. The aforementioned high pressure is progged to shift east of the forecast area by early this afternoon as a mid-level perturbation propagates across the Northern Plains. Tonight, a surface warm front lifts north across the area with increased isentropic ascent leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in east central Kansas.
No significant weather expected this evening and overnight as temps will be slightly cooler than last night as clear skies, light wind and H85 temps around 12 to 14C will be over southwest MO tonight. Wednesday high temps will be slightly below normal by a few degrees, in the lower to middle 80s. To the west of this low, ridging edges into the northern plains. On Wednesday night, H85 southwest low level jet increases in central and eastern Kansas with a resultant weak surface warm front.
Otherwise should be a quiet night, with lows in the low to mid 50s. Though MUCAPE in northwest North Dakota is on the low side due to surface dew points around 50 and warm low to mid level temperatures, the 20Z NUCAPS pass suggests mid- level lapse rates may be slightly steeper than what guidance is depicting. Deep layer shear increases with the approaching mid-level speed max, though with the low-end instability we will hold off on severe messaging at this time. The short term will be dominated by a large and cool upper low dumbelling around the Great Lakes region.
As a result I upped high temperatures today throughout southwest Kansas into the lower to mid 90s.
Clear skies in the morning will make for some low-level heating, while a cold front associated with the incoming trough will lower temperatures aloft.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the region through late week resulting in above average temperatures, especially across the interior. Meanwhile, onshore flow will persist and maintain cooler conditions near the coast with continued night and morning low clouds. Temperatures were a few degrees warmer in some areas today and a few degrees cooler in others, but overall today's highs were similar to yesterday, and a substantial difference in temperatures persisted between the cloudy/foggy coast and hot inland valleys and hills.
1104 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 An approaching cold front will push through central PA tonight. Cluster of storms over the Lower Susq should be the last threat of heavy rain.
Further west in our forecast area, a sfc boundary left behind from last night's convection has pushed up against the higher terrain. Models indicate a new complex of storms will materialize off of the Sangre de Cristos Mountains in New Mexico this evening and drift southeastward along the eastern periphery of a large upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest. It looks like the best chances will be across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mtns to the Marfa Plateau. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow reaching the mid 90s.
348 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 High pressure over Grand Forks at 08z. Highs today a tad warmer than on Wednesday with mid 70s west to low 80s west across the forecast area. GFS shows this idea with a short wave moving east into eastern SD Thu aftn and weak low, possible warm frontal boundary in southern into east central SD. SPC shows this area near the warm front to our south as having best severe chances. Situation in SE ND muddled as depends on warm front location and degree of surface heating. Fcst temps near 90 in SE ND with dew pts in the low-mid 60s should yield MU CAPES in the 2500-3000 j/kg range in SE ND.
210 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A less humid and cooler airmass settles in today. A cold front moves through the mountains first thing this morning. This sets up a quieter day today, as weak high pressure builds in. The upper level short wave trough driving the surface cold front through first thing this morning, exits the area by afternoon, but another approaching the middle Ohio Valley late today, may erode the mid level inversion enough to stand up something taller west of the Ohio River. The high and its light surface flow will allow river valley fog to form tonight, even as upper level troughiness settles into the middle Ohio Valley, given a lack of mid and upper level moisture.
between high pressure over the southwestern U. and a low pressure system over east Texas. A complex of showers and thunderstorms currently dropping southward across the Lower Trans Pecos will clip far western Crockett County before dissipating by daybreak. Otherwise, upper level high pressure will nudge eastward across the region today. With no apparent upper level impulses in the northerly flow and high pressure building overhead have removed PoPs for most of the area for this afternoon.
353 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 The cyclonic turning in the winds aloft associated with the upper level low propagates slightly east as an upper level ridge nudges towards the Northland.
A weak cold front will approach the state from the northwest tonight.
1139 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 An approaching cold front will push through central PA tonight. Cluster of storms over the Lower Susq should be the last threat of heavy rain.
232 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft continues today as a ridge axis currently centered from eastern Saskatchewan southwestward into central Montana. Cyclonic flow on the southwestern periphery of upper trough over Ontario is resulting in isolated showers along our far eastern CWA border this morning, although expect mainly dry conditions today. As the ridge builds across the northern Plains today, warm air advection will ensue and temperatures will hit upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon.
Early this morning, the upper air pattern was characterized by a closed low centered over the Great Lakes region, with deep troughing over the eastern CONUS, northwest flow over the Plains, and mostly zonal flow over the northwestern US. With upper ridging becoming more amplified over the Dakotas, highs today will reach the lower 90s west, and 80s elsewhere. The chance of showers and thunderstorms begins this evening in the northwest with a weak impulse aloft and a surface warm front extended from the aforementioned low. This chance of precip will shift east to the north central and then south through the James River Valley overnight, ahead of the main push of showers and thunderstorms from an approaching cold front.
High pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday.
An upper low over eastern Canada will continue influencing weather for the area through the forecast period. Another system will move in as the high moves off to the east leading to better rain chances for the latter half of the forecast. Will carry a low pop through 04Z focused on the lower Wabash Valley with dry weather thereafter. An upper level low will continue slowly tracking over the Great Lakes and into SE Canada through the short term period. A couple of short waves off of this low will bring periods of slight rain chances in what will otherwise be a mostly dry mid-week.
401 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A cold front will pass through the region early this morning. Canadian high pressure will build toward the region for the rest of the work week, but an upper-level trough will also pass overhead during this time. A warm front will advance across the region early this weekend as Bermuda high pressure builds over the Atlantic.
With a northerly component to the wind, temperatures will remain a little below normal today in the low to mid 80s.
1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Cooler conditions can be expected with northwesterly upper level flow behind the deep upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes region. The better threat for typical diurnal convection should shift east of the forecast area for Wednesday afternoon as the upper level trough moves slowly eastward.
High temperatures again today should be a tad below normal with most areas warming into the lower to middle 80s. Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer as dew points begin to creep up. Lows should range from the lower 60s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle 60s along the I-49 corridor.
138 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Cooler and less humid conditions will arrive for a few days.
208 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A cold front will cross the Mid-Atlantic tonight into Wednesday, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
1207 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 229 PM CDT The trough and upper low over the western Great Lakes region today will gradually lift north into eastern Canada this week, but not before a couple more small perturbations pivot around the upper low. With slightly cooler air aloft and slight warmer air near the surface allowing for some modest SBCAPE.
Although instability is lacking, there will be a broad upper trough moving across the OH Valley and central Appalachians today and tonight, which may be enough to warrant a slight chance PoP north of I-40 late today and tonight, with chance PoPs south near the front.
124 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A slightly cooler airmass will move into the region, bringing seasonable temperatures.
The next chance for precipitation will be Wednesday night as the ridge axis begins to break down ahead of an approach trough.
950 PM PDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Expect a dry and mild night followed by a weak cold front late tonight into Wednesday.
A deep upper-level trough centered over Ontario will dominate the weather across central Illinois today.
158 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A cold front will push through central PA tonight. However, a brief shower will remain possible with passage of cold front, which lies from KELM to just east of KAOO and KUNV at 06Z. The one exception could be the northwest mountains, which will be on the edge of stratocu associated with upper low over the Grt Lks. Temperatures are on track to bottom out from the mid 50s over the northwest mountains, to the upper 60s in the Lower Susq Valley.
1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 229 PM CDT The trough and upper low over the western Great Lakes region today will gradually lift north into eastern Canada this week, but not before a couple more small perturbations pivot around the upper low. With slightly cooler air aloft and slight warmer air near the surface allowing for some modest SBCAPE.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below A vort max is descending south across Minnesota this afternoon on the back end of a mid level trough centered over the Great Lakes. The trough will lift out late week with heights building behind it.
Ridge axis has moved off to the east as an upper level trough approaches the region. Current temps 5-10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Upper trough will move across the Pacific northwest Wednesday along with a weak cold front. Partly cloudy and cooler with increasing westerly winds. Winds 5-15 kts will continue through 16Z followed by a weak cold front that will cause westerly winds to increase to 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts.
359 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Another beautiful day in store today! Temperatures will once again top out in the lower 80s with reasonable dewpoint values in the upper 50s to low 60s. While yesterday was somewhat breezy, light winds today may make it feel warmer when compared to yesterday afternoon.
Cold front is pushing through the area with only a few remaining showers and isolated storms. Will keep some slight chance POPs in along the eastern mountains and southern TN valley overnight as the cold front will come to rest somewhere in the vicinity of these areas later tonight. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 87 67 87 / 50 40 40 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 64 84 66 86 / 30 30 30 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 84 63 84 65 86 / 20 30 30 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 61 81 61 83 / 20 30 20 20 30.
We'll see the complex decay towards the Lower Trans Pecos with some lingering showers trailing back towards the Marfa Plateau by sunrise. With the ridge shifting slightly to the west and more southeast return flow expected over SE NM and west TX, the eastward extent of the storms will be less pronounced as the past few nights. Pulse variety storms over the Davis mountains and further west will continue through the extended, but storm motion will be slow with drifting back south and west thanks to the ridge breaking down as troughing returns by the weekend over the western US.
402 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Under mostly clear skies and light east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 80 along with extremely uncomfortable dewpoint readings in the mid to upper 70s. A deep layered ridge locked in over the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters will move little over the next several days.
This will occur as an upper-level trough presently across the Midwest begins to lift out of the region, allowing some weak ridging back into the Southern Plains.
Upper low is centered near the Straits of Mackinac, with a vort lobe swinging through NE Illinois at this hour. Surface cold front has pushed east of the forecast area this afternoon. As expected, temperatures have warmed back into the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the region. For Wednesday, we'll be within the base of an upper level trough axis. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s region wide. Issued at 250 PM Tue Jun 23 2020 A 5H closed low over the Great Lakes will slowly meander northward from midweek through the weekend. By Wednesday night, the upper level trough axis will lie N-S over the Ohio Valley with high pressure building in the lower level.
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue its slow eastward progression overnight, as high pressure over the Dakotas moves further east. Convection allowing models are in decent agreement regarding the low thunderstorm potential. Expect slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s.
As advertised, a surface cold front pushed through West Central Texas this morning, leaving a more stable airmass in place. Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, with generally variable winds driven mainly by mesoscale features. Tonight, skies will gradually clear out as an area of high pressure moves into north Texas, although some high clouds may stick around. High pressure will drift east, while a weak low moves over the southeast Texas coast.
307 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Upper ridging will linger into the first half of today, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 90s and RH's get down to the upper teens. However, warm and dry conditions will be short lived as a trough will swing through the area overnight, with a cold front ahead of this system moving through this evening. Troughing will persist through Thursday, allowing rain showers and weak thunderstorms to occur this evening and persist through Thursday across the area.
948 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A cold front will pass through the region early this morning. Canadian high pressure will build toward the region for the rest of the work week, but an upper-level trough will also pass overhead during this time. A warm front will advance across the region early this weekend as Bermuda high pressure builds over the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the lower level ridge is directly overhead. Short Term Update - Ridging will dominate our weather pattern this afternoon, keeping winds light out of the east to southeast. A pressure ridge across South Florida will result in light east to southeast breezes across Keys waters.
/Today through Thursday Night/ Weak upper trof over SE TX somewhat pinched off from the main trof axis over the Great Lakes and Upper MS/Ohio River Valleys. Upper trof to pivot ewd today, taking the MCV ewd as well.
Meanwhile, onshore flow will maintain cooler conditions near the coast with continued night and morning low clouds. Similar to 24 hours ago, temperatures are holding in the mid 50s to lower 60s for most urban areas while 60s to 70s persist in the hills/ridges above the marine inversion. This warm air mas aloft is in response to mid/upper level ridging over California and the Desert Southwest.
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Another beautiful day in store today! Temperatures will once again top out in the lower 80s with reasonable dewpoint values in the upper 50s to low 60s. While yesterday was somewhat breezy, light winds today may make it feel warmer when compared to yesterday afternoon.
658 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 A cold front has moved to the Blue Ridge this morning and will track to the coastal plains today. A second cold front will enter the Ohio Valley this afternoon and move across the region Thursday.
615 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Northwest flow associated with a ridging pattern continues today. The storms will dissipate or move southeast of the area in the evening with mild low temperatures in the low to mid 60s as continued southeast low level moisture advection continues. A surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest.
The period will start with an upper level trough over the northeast CONUS, and an associated relatively dry air mass (by summer standards) over the JKL forecast area.
946 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 The cyclonic turning in the winds aloft associated with the upper level low propagates slightly east as an upper level ridge nudges towards the Northland. Thursday begins to warm up with highs in the lower 80s across the area. An upper level trough begins to advance across MT towards MN. At the surface an occluded system works its way through the Canadian Prairies with it's associated warm front draped through the Northern Plains. This warm front continues its march eastbound and will instigate storm development. An uptick in the low level jet in the evening hours will inject additional moisture for storms to roll through the night.
A deep upper-level trough centered over Ontario will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. The Ontario upper trough will shift northeastward on Thursday, resulting in rising heights across the Midwest. A warm front will lift into Illinois Thursday night: however, strongest forcing associated with nocturnal low- level jet will remain well to the W/NW across Iowa.
High pressure over Grand Forks at 08z. Highs today a tad warmer than on Wednesday with mid 70s west to low 80s west across the forecast area. GFS shows this idea with a short wave moving east into eastern SD Thu aftn and weak low, possible warm frontal boundary in southern into east central SD. SPC shows this area near the warm front to our south as having best severe chances. Situation in SE ND muddled as depends on warm front location and degree of surface heating. Fcst temps near 90 in SE ND with dew pts in the low-mid 60s should yield MU CAPES in the 2500-3000 j/kg range in SE ND.
949 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 The cyclonic turning in the winds aloft associated with the upper level low propagates slightly east as an upper level ridge nudges towards the Northland. Thursday begins to warm up with highs in the lower 80s across the area. An upper level trough begins to advance across MT towards MN. At the surface an occluded system works its way through the Canadian Prairies with it's associated warm front draped through the Northern Plains. This warm front continues its march eastbound and will instigate storm development. An uptick in the low level jet in the evening hours will inject additional moisture for storms to roll through the night.
631 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Today another lobe of vorticity rotating around the backside of the upper closed low over the Great Lakes will provide another chance for isolated to scattered showers, with some thunder possible, especially in west central Wisconsin where CAPE is forecast to reach about 1000 J/kg this afternoon during peak heating. Any showers or thunderstorms should dissipate quickly this evening and ridging will start to move into the forecast area from the west.
This has resulted in cooler and drier air in locations such as Harrison and Mountain Home, with warmer and more moist air across central and southern regions of the state. The H500 low associated with the surface boundary will continue to slowly move east towards the Great Lakes Region, keeping mean troughing across the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, ridging across the Desert Southwest will become more amplified.