Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to gradually build over the CWA with the resulting increase in subsidence allowing for much fewer storms to develop tomorrow afternoon. While temperatures have warmed in the mid- levels of the atmosphere, southeasterly flow in the lower levels is advecting in enough cooler Gulf Of Mexico air to offset the warming above keeping temperatures steady both today and tomorrow.
High pressure building into the region will keep conditions very warm and dry on Monday.
130 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 VFR conditions prevail through the period as high pressure continues to build in from the west and dry air filters in. A few boundary layer clouds around 5000 ft should tend to dissipate as further drying of the low-levels occurs early in the forecast. Clear sky this time allows radiational cooling to reflect the lower humidity air mass in place and help low temperatures drop to near the 60 degree mark outside of metro Detroit.
1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain anchored across the region today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday or even a degree or two warmer.
High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight and Monday, bringing dry and warm weather to central IL. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a zone of agitated cumulus near the I-70 corridor in the vicinity of the slowly southward advancing cold front. Behind the front, north winds around 10 mph have dropped dewpoints to the low and mid 60s over the northern third of the CWA. High pressure currently centered over IA, will drift southeast into the area by Monday afternoon, being the dominant weather feature for the early part of the week.
The HRRR indicates smoke near the surface increasing today as daytime heating mixes smoke into the lower atmosphere. An upper ridge over the Great Basin this morning will amplify and shift northeast through Monday and bring us hotter temperatures. Smoke will keep temperatures several degrees cooler than their full potential.
Heat and humidity will be the main weather story through the middle of the week, followed by a weak cold front passage late in the week. The strong 500 mb high over the western states will shift east into the Plains, but persistent troughing over the Northeast USA appears likely to dig in its heels by the weekend. This trough will limit the eastward movement of the torrid heat and humidity from the Plains.
Rain-cooled air combined with predominately overcast skies for much of the day has kept temperatures in the low 80s along the NE border to the low 90s along/southeast of I-35. Otherwise, the heat and humidity will be on the increase through the week as the midlevel ridge amplifies and expands across the central Plains.
1018 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 (Issued 958 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021) The forecast remains on tracks as high pressure continues to build into Midwest bringing quiet, but very warm conditions across WI today. High pressure will dominate today as it settles into the western corn belt, leading to clear skies overall. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s with moisture scoured out of the region by yesterday's cold front. Monday should be a similar day to Sunday, although few degrees warmer as some slightly warmer 925mb temps will nose into the area aloft.
The CAPE progs are pretty limited over the eastern plains, with little to no CAPE over the rest of the plains, with the highest values over the southwestern CWA. 0 C warmer than today's Isolated thunderstorms in the central mountains and southern plains may persist into Monday evening. There is good model consensus through this week, as a large ridge will continue to build and move slowly east over the CONUS.
250 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 (Issued 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure settling in across the Midwest will continue to bring quiet conditions to WI tonight and into Monday. We could see a few showers and thunderstorms triggered by the low-level WAA associated with this first wave, but the better dynamics remain nort of the area.
1117 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas. For today, weak warm front lifts northward.
Some storms have had rainfall rates exceeding 3 inches per hour, but the higher rates generally have not lasted too long in any one location.
Showers are occurring north of Superior, in a zone of enhanced moisture in advance of low pressure over far northern Ontario/Quebec. High pressure to continue Monday, then rain chances.
210 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 This afternoon it appears a somewhat diffuse warm front is gradually edging north through South Dakota. Sfc warm front will have likely lifted north of the CWA, as somewhat weak looking boundary progresses east over the region.
Another hot and generally dry day is expected tomorrow as the CONUS ridge and Bermuda high attempt to merge into one synoptic scale feature. This will put our region just south of the ridge tomorrow leading to a shift towards easterly flow which will increase moisture advection into the region from the Atlantic. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs in the mid 90s.
757 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A weak cold front will cross the Commonwealth tonight, with isolated showers and thunderstorms into the early evening, mainly well south of I-80. The start of the work week looks rain free and seasonably warm, with weak high pressure the main controlling feature. Forcing from weak cold front won't be enough to sustain this activity much past sunset. Later tonight, the actual cold frontal boundary mentioned above will limp its way across the Commonwealth, with any residual showers/thunderstorms on the decline by that time. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s in the northern mountains to the lower 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains, to the low-mid 60s in the Susquehanna Valley.
A weak low is expected to move over northern Florida from the east before dissipating on Monday, with high pressure then building back into the area.
628 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A cold front is making its way south across the area this afternoon.
Our low pressure system that brought record rainfall to the area is now west-northwest of the area, with broad steering flow out of the south for our corner of the state. Subsidence and some drying behind the low will inhibit thunderstorm coverage tomorrow, below average for our typical monsoon day and nowhere near recent days.
Deep monsoon moisture along with a weak low will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the district on Monday, especially over the higher elevations of the Sierra as well as Kern county mountains and desert.
527 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Water vapor shows large high stretching from the southwestern through south central CONUS, with ridge amplifying into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, warm front has lifted to near I-90 across northeast WY and western SD. As upper ridge expands north and east through mid week, temps will continue to warm the next few days.
Feel the higher chances for additional development will be over western KS where some moisture transport/theta-e advection will remain.
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 (This evening through Monday) A hot and dry forecast continues into Monday with upper level high pressure firmly in control. A large area of upper level ridging will remain in place over Texas and much of the CONUS from Monday night through the rest of the week.
802 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A weak cold front will shift south through the area this evening before washing out south of the Ohio Valley early this week.
1008 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Weak low pressure continues off the north Florida Coast while ridging remains split between the north Atlantic and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Overnight, guidance continues to indicate the deep southwest-to- northeast moisture axis wrapping into the east side of the low pressure area east of Florida pulling further northwest, with drying near 700 mb reaching the Upper Keys by morning. From synopsis, low pressure centered off of the east coast of Florida will slide northwestward towards Georgia. This will allow a strong ridge over the central Atlantic will build across the Florida Keys and South Florida throughout the week.
Cronce (Issued 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure settling in across the Midwest will continue to bring quiet conditions to WI tonight and into Monday. We could see a few showers and thunderstorms triggered by the low-level WAA associated with this first wave, but the better dynamics remain north of the area.
An upper ridge will be positioned over the Pacific Northwest through the week for dry weather.
404 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A slight reprieve (relatively speaking) from the extreme heat today thanks to a combination of a weak boundary, morning convection, and some cloud cover as heat indices currently reside primarily in the low to mid 90s.
951 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Thunderstorms are developing in far southeastern North Dakota this evening, likely along the nose of the low level jet, but unsure if there will be any development back to the west in our forecast area. Broad ridging pattern continues over the western United States, with low amplitude northwest flow over the Northern Plains. The threat on the North Dakota side will depend on the northern extent of the low level jet, with best chances for now kept to the south.
942 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A weak cold front will cross the Commonwealth overnight. The start of the work week looks rain free and seasonably warm, with weak high pressure the main controlling feature. Diffuse sfc cold front finally catching up to prefrontal trof over my southeast, which by midnight will spell the end of the persistent evening shra/tsra tracking across southern portions of the Lower Susq River Valley, dropping locally heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s in the northern mountains to the lower 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains, to the low-mid 60s in the Susquehanna Valley.
1031 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A weak cold front will shift south through the area this evening before washing out south of the Ohio Valley early this week.
The storms were occurring ahead of a weak cold front entering KY from the north. We see strong ridging across much of the western portion of the country, with general troughing over the east.
This afternoon it appears a somewhat diffuse warm front is gradually edging north through South Dakota. Sfc warm front will have likely lifted north of the CWA, as somewhat weak looking boundary progresses east over the region.
612 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A disturbance within the subtropical plume rotating around upper level high pressure, kicked off heavy thunderstorms early this morning across portions of southwest into south central NE. Rain cooled air has rushed north and west from the thunderstorm complex and has kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than expected. The higher theta-e air has been pushed west into portions of the Panhandle and west central NE.
High pressure that is situated over southeast Texas and southern Louisiana has allowed temperatures into the mid 90s with a few locations a bit warmer. The high pressure brought in lower dew points from the north and the heat index remained from the century mark through about 104 degrees. The ridge aloft has crushed all storm potential as seen in southeastern Louisiana. Tonight with clear skies will see a bit of fog towards sunrise but with the lower dew points a bit less than what we had this morning. The high will pull back to the northwest tonight into tmrw and this will open up south-central Louisiana for storm development and the moisture to our east will spread acrs cntrl Louisiana.
As this area of low pressure continues to move slowly W/NW overnight, low level winds will switch to the S/SW across the area. A slight chance for rain will linger along the coast for any onshore moving showers or any that develop in closer proximity to the low off the coast.
Tonight's temperature forecast was slightly adjusted to be higher due to observations being warmer than forecasted for central MS. Winds very light/calm on obs across the area this afternoon enhancing the impacts of the high heat index values across the region.
Upper high builds to the north with the deeper moisture getting pushed to the New Mexico border and into the Eastern San Juans.
High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight and Monday, bringing dry and warm weather to central IL. Further north, dew points had been in the lower/mid 60s but have since rebounded several degrees with the end of daytime mixing. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a zone of agitated cumulus near the I-70 corridor in the vicinity of the slowly southward advancing cold front. Behind the front, north winds around 10 mph have dropped dewpoints to the low and mid 60s over the northern third of the CWA. High pressure currently centered over IA, will drift southeast into the area by Monday afternoon, being the dominant weather feature for the early part of the week.
618 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A weak cold front will cross the Commonwealth tonight, with isolated showers and thunderstorms into the early evening, mainly well south of I-80. The start of the work week looks rain free and seasonably warm, with weak high pressure the main controlling feature. Forcing from weak cold front won't be enough to sustain this activity much past sunset. Later tonight, the actual cold frontal boundary mentioned above will limp its way across the Commonwealth, with any residual showers/thunderstorms on the decline by that time. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s in the northern mountains to the lower 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains, to the low-mid 60s in the Susquehanna Valley.
706 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 VFR condition are expected throughout the forecast as high pressure builds eastward into the region. A welcome return to sunny and dry weather this afternoon as the easternmost edge of high pressure over the Midwest settles into SE MI. High pressure drifts southeast into the Ohio Valley Monday maintaining a persistence forecast for lower MI.
613 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A slight reprieve (relatively speaking) from the extreme heat today thanks to a combination of a weak boundary, morning convection, and some cloud cover as heat indices currently reside primarily in the low to mid 90s.
As this boundary rolled through the Dodge City area the strong gusty winds ushered in a 15 to 20 degree cool down in temperatures as the mercury fell from the lower 90s to the lower 70s. A little sun however can go a long way this time of year so continue leaning towards the warmer guidance for highs Monday afternoon. Models remain in decent agreement with each other and previous runs in building an upper high across the Rockies and out into the Northern and Central Plains through mid week.
Heat indices this as of 2 PM CDT ranged from the upper 90s to mid 100s across the region, with the higher values across north central Louisiana. The upper level ridge that has had control of our weather pattern will yet again bring another hot day on Monday and has the potential to easily be our warmest day of the upcoming week. The upper level ridge is expected to retrograde slightly on Monday, so PoPs will expand further to the west, potentially spilling over into our east Texas counties Monday afternoon which could impact our forecasted highs.
126 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A weak cold front will shift south through the area this evening before washing out south of the Ohio Valley early this week.
310 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
Another afternoon of full sun helps high temperatures reach for 90 compared to normal highs in the lower half of the 80s. Low to mid level moisture transport is feeding nocturnal/elevated instability along and ahead of the warm front connected to northern Plains low pressure. This system connects to and rides along a cold front settling into the Great Lakes from northern Ontario. Ongoing elevated convection then becomes surface based during the day and increases coverage along the cold front into Upper MI by this evening.
1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A cold front is making its way south across the area this afternoon.
The storms were occurring ahead of a weak cold front entering KY from the north. The large scale pattern in the extended will once again feature a large upper ridge over the western CONUS and a large trough over the eastern part of the country.
1102 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A slight reprieve (relatively speaking) from the extreme heat today thanks to a combination of a weak boundary, morning convection, and some cloud cover as heat indices currently reside primarily in the low to mid 90s.
1118 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Water vapor shows large high stretching from the southwestern through south central CONUS, with ridge amplifying into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, warm front has lifted to near I-90 across northeast WY and western SD. As upper ridge expands north and east through mid week, temps will continue to warm the next few days.
304 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure over Illinois and eastern Missouri will allow doe another warm day with limited chanced for showers and thunderstorms. Where storm develop however, temperatures may be slightly cooler thanks to the localized increased cloud cover and rainfall. Temperatures will remain in the lower 70s for most of the region with areas in the eastern Ozarks falling into he middle 60s, especially in valleys and low lying areas.
255 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A very weak cold front near the Ohio River will continue to crawl south and east across Kentucky today.
Rich precipitable water axis ahead of this MCV combined with relatively cooler mid-level temperatures will yield a moist un- capped and unstable airmass.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure over the Southern Plains will continue to influence our weather as we start the work week. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A disturbance within the subtropical plume rotating around upper level high pressure, kicked off heavy thunderstorms early this morning across portions of southwest into south central NE. Rain cooled air has rushed north and west from the thunderstorm complex and has kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than expected. The higher theta-e air has been pushed west into portions of the Panhandle and west central NE.
Scattered cirrus moving through the region from the east otherwise it should be a mild quiet night with strong high pressure still dominating the weather.
An upper disturbance/ridge rider moving out of southern MB will interact with the surface boundary this afternoon as temperatures max out and convective temps climb into the 90s.
202 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of a slow moving cold front that crosses today.
1139 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 VFR conditions will continue as high pressure builds east into the forecast area. A welcome return to sunny and dry weather this afternoon as the easternmost edge of high pressure over the Midwest settles into SE MI. High pressure drifts southeast into the Ohio Valley Monday maintaining a persistence forecast for lower MI.
However most CAMs still suggest more development along the South Dakota border overnight along a northward bulging warm front currently located just north of KABR. Thunderstorms are developing in far southeastern North Dakota this evening, likely along the nose of the low level jet, but unsure if there will be any development back to the west in our forecast area. Broad ridging pattern continues over the western United States, with low amplitude northwest flow over the Northern Plains. The threat on the North Dakota side will depend on the northern extent of the low level jet, with best chances for now kept to the south.
Todays high of 79 was only the 12th time since 1894 that the high temperature on a July day did not hit 80 degrees.
314 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A strong U/L ridge will extend from the inter-mountain west across the southeast U.
The Florida Keys will continue to enjoy a southeasterly wind regime today as a ridge across north Atlantic gradually begins to build back westward. Meanwhile, rain chances will remain elevated for today due to a weak tropical wave, pivoting around said ridge. As the ridge continues to build westward across the Sunshine State and Florida Keys, pockets of relatively drier air in the lower levels will pivot around the ridge. This coupled with weak and light flow in the lowest 6 km of the atmosphere means that mesoscale forcing will dictate where and when showers and isolated thunderstorms develop.
Another area that will need to be watched this afternoon will be out west toward the Colorado border where pristine surface-based convection is expected where low level convergence is enhanced in vicinity of leeside trough. As far as temperatures go today, we expected afternoon highs again in the lower 90s outside of thunderstorm activity.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 90 73 95 / 70 30 70 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 92 72 96 / 80 20 50 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 72 90 71 95 / 80 20 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 90 66 94 / 80 20 40 10 10.
220 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Current surface map shows warm front across far northwest South Dakota.
1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 (This evening through Monday) A hot and dry forecast continues into Monday with upper level high pressure firmly in control. A large area of upper level ridging will remain in place over Texas and much of the CONUS from Monday night through the rest of the week.
The Excessive Heat Warning remains unchanged, starting today at 10 AM for all but the higher elevations. Overnight lows will warmer tonight than the last couple, with most areas being in the mid to upper 60s for lows.
This is occurring as northwest Texas remains beneath an eastward extention of mid-level monsoon moisture trapped within broad upper ridging.
This is very close to yesterday's highs, in urban areas and a bit warmer than yesterday in rural areas.
Will keep a watch on this just in case the high clouds are thicker than anticipated.
143 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A weak cold front will cross the Commonwealth overnight. The start of the work week looks rain free and seasonably warm, with weak high pressure the main controlling feature. Diffuse sfc cold front finally catching up to prefrontal trof over my southeast, which by midnight will spell the end of the persistent evening shra/tsra tracking across southern portions of the Lower Susq River Valley, dropping locally heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s in the northern mountains to the lower 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains, to the low-mid 60s in the Susquehanna Valley.
IR satellite imagery revealed mostly clear skies across southeast Arizona with the upper low which fueled our unsettled weather now off the western coast of srn CA.
532 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Overnight moist convection is slowly beginning to wane across northwestern OK along a subtle convergence zone within mid level theta-e ridge.
533 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 The center of the upper level ridge extended across northwest UT and north/central NV, with the monsoonal moisture plume across the Desert Southwest. Large scale subsidence beneath the upper ridge will suppress most convection today. The exception may be southern Carbon and Albany counties where the high-res models generate widely scattered afternoon and early evening convection. With the low/mid level thermal ridge centered over the CWA, high temperatures outside the mountains will range from 90 to 104.
919 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
608 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A ridge of high pressure will build over Pennsylvania today.