Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level ridge axis has edged eastward some into the eastern half of Texas, with a large trough across the western CONUS, and low over the southeastern U. The combination of the western trough and ridge in our area is resulting in active southwest flow just to our west across far west Texas and New Mexico.
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ASIDE FROM WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU WITH LOW VFR/HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS THAT WILL LINGER OVER ERN AR/NE LA AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL AL. WHICH REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FL PANHANDLE.
REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER MT IS PROVIDING THE INSTABILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING DOWN THE W COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR LAX BY SUN EVE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NV MON NIGHT. SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY TUE MORN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO UT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY WED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A MINOR SHORT WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED NIGHT/THU MORN.
THEN FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS AND BKN CIRRUS MOST AREAS WITH ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE EAST OF A KBMQ TO KBAZ TO KBEA LINE SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. FEW-SCT MVFR OR LOW END VFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA COULD BE CLEARED OUT OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY. SUNNY AND DRY TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. WITH LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE IMPACTS FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING.
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND DRIVE EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS REGION. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN NERN WY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH NEVADA INTO ARIZONA WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON.
331 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING ARE BREAKING UP WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
Cold front now entering wrn MO will approach the MS River by around noon. Another area of showers associated with the cold front itself will also bring additional rain to most locations as it moves east today. Colder conditions will arrive tonight into the weekend as Canadian high pressure slowly presses south toward the northern U.
342 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
1035 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WITH READINGS -26C TO -17C AND A MIX OF CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES SKIRT THE LOW END OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WE WILL SEE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET STREAK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
Cold front making its way into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning, with area of MVFR cigs ahead of it. /ISSUED 401 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ A cold front is moving across the forecast area early this morning bringing an end to the unseasonably warm weather we have enjoyed the past couple days.
While the cloud deck is shallow, and showing signs of breaking at times, the clouds have kept temperatures cooler which has in turn made it harder to mix away the cloud deck. Saturday will feature light winds and high pressure overhead.
348 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) Upper low over the 4-corners region will move east along the the Red River Saturday. Gusty north winds otherwise expected Saturday as a cold front moves along the I-20 corridor around 6 AM and south of I-10 by Noon. Cooler Saturday with skies clearing in the mid/late afternoon.
255 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE. THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE VA CST AFTR MIDNIGHT. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS. SNSH WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW DEGS WARMER I-95 AND E. MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS. RESULTING IN TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BY MID MORNING WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW. WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO BE COOLER TODAY /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ THAN YESTERDAY. UA TROUGHINESS WILL. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO BELOW 0 C AND SFC TEMPS FALLING TO/BELOW FREEZING. OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX /SE ZONES LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING/. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT COLDER SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
1131 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 MUCH COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
BY MON AFTERNOON THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BEYOND THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WED MORNING AND SWINGING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS ISN'T NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS TROUGH.
1107 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE AT SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUMP A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHTS LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cold front is beginning to move into forecast area as of 09z.
326 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
RIDGETOP WINDS WILL BE STRONG. WARM FRONT STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND USHERS IN RAIN AT KRDM, KBDN, KDLS AND KYKM BEGINNING AROUND 16TH/06Z. TAF SITES WILL RECEIVE STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT SO I WILL CHANGE THE OBSERVABLE/REPORTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE FROM -SHRA TO -RA IN THE TAFS.
245 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 Colder air will continue to filter into the region tonight behind cold front that pushed through the area earlier this morning.
LIGHT SNOW IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES WEST. HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. I HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL ADVECT SE PER AN ADVANCING STRONG BACKSIDE UPPER JET. WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS.
1045 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROCEED THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SHOULD BE TO THE LITTLE ROCK AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 535 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS ARE LOCATIONS IN DEKALB AND JACKSON COUNTIES WHICH ARE STILL EXPERIENCING RAIN CAUSED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. DESPITE THIS LOWERED HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO OVERALL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 03-06Z THIS EVENING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS.
HOWEVER HI RES MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN TONIGHT BUT SOME DECREASED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH.
TEMPORARY RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF TEXAS IS CURRENTLY KEEPING CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPS ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 30S OUT WEST OF HWY 281.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THESE TWO SITES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS PASSING TROUGH AND BOUNDARY. WITH HIGHS AROUND FIVE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW.
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 35KTS AT TIMES BUT THIS SHOULD RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. A 130KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.
A cold front will move through Saturday morning, with northwest to north wind gusts up to 25 KTS. An upper level short wave trough over the Inter-mountain west will dive southeast into the Southern Plains this weekend.
1230 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
AS A WEAK POCKET OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PASSES IN THE BASE OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ROTATING FROM MANITOBA/ONTARIO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
RIDGETOP WINDS WILL BE STRONG. WARM FRONT STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH RESULTING IN LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUD BASES THIS EVENING AND USHERS IN RAIN AT KRDM, KBDN, KDLS AND KYKM BEGINNING AROUND 16TH/06Z. TAF SITES WILL RECEIVE STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT, SO I WILL CHANGE THE OBSERVABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE FROM -SHRA TO -RA IN THE TAFS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS ARE LOCATIONS IN DEKALB AND JACKSON COUNTIES WHICH ARE STILL EXPERIENCING RAIN CAUSED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. DESPITE THIS LOWERED HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO OVERALL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUT HSV SHOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF IFR RANGE UNTIL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
331 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY 18Z SATURDAY.
249 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS PRECIP EXITING THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECOND WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX GULF COAST AND THIS BECOMES OUR NEXT PRECIP MAKER. AS THIS LOW CENTER MOVES DUE EAST IT BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS LA/AL SAT EVENING AND INTO GA SAT NIGHT.
Some sun is expected to return in the afternoon and this should allow temperatures to warm into the lower 40s, except for possibly upper 30s for any areas that receive significant snowfall.
The cold front has passed through the region and into the OH Valley and CAA is underway. Stratus, northwest winds, and CAA will continue tonight as high pressure continues to build south/southeastward from the northern Plains into the MS Valley. Weak high pressure will dominate on Saturday with gradually diminishing clouds.
314 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON STAYS QUIET AND MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS THICKEN UP LATER THIS EVENING AS DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AREAS ABOVE 1500-1800 FEET FROM NORTHERN SULLIVAN THROUGH DELAWARE COUNTIES. HOWEVER RIGHT NOW, LOOKS LIKE MAINLY JUST A RAIN/SNOW CONCERN AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LESS OF A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION, A COATING UP TO LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS WITH CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LAYERS QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY THROUGH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN CA/OR AND WILL HEAD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NM OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE SHY SIDE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE HIGHER EASTERN SAWATCH RANGE AND WESTERN MOSQUITOES. BUT COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TODAY. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
1016 AM MST FRI JAN 15 2016 ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE PASSED THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND CRAIG. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH FAVORABLE NW FLOW KEEPING SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
AT LEAST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WITH SCT -SHRA WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
1035 AM PST FRI JAN 15 2016 Dry weather returning for today except maybe a few light snow showers in the higher Sierra.
/ISSUED 1107 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE AT SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUMP A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHTS LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS ARE STEADILY ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN US. DECENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD PRODUCE.
COLD UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHICH DROPS A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT REALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW DROPPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND GETTING QUITE COLD. IN FACT CLEARING IS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO LOOKING AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF JUST OVER ONE INCH THROUGH THE NORTHERN MO RIVER VALLEY TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.
LIGHT SNOW IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES WEST. HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. I HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCLUDING KCTB, KHVR, AND KLWT, AND CAUSE LOW CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE BUT OVERALL IT WILL KEEP THE BRUNT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH.
Low clouds wrapping around the back side of a low pressure system aloft over MO have spread into NW AR this afternoon. This cloud cover should be gone by the end of the day as the low continues to pull away. only minor tweaks to the highs were made. Cold front making its way into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning, with area of MVFR cigs ahead of it. /ISSUED 401 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ A cold front is moving across the forecast area early this morning bringing an end to the unseasonably warm weather we have enjoyed the past couple days.
BUT ANY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
228 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 20z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front pushing east of the I-57 corridor, as the area of rain ahead of the boundary exits into Indiana. While temperatures are still in the lower to middle 40s across the E/SE KILX CWA, readings have dropped into the lower to middle 30s further west across the remainder of the area. Large high pressure ridge will move into the area and affect the CWA beginning tomorrow.
222 PM MST FRI JAN 15 2016 A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE THIS EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH CLEARING THE AREA TO THE EAST BY 03Z. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
1048 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 16z/10am surface analysis shows cold front along the I-55 corridor, with an area of light to moderate rain occurring ahead of the front across much of the eastern KILX CWA. Highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s, although a few readings near 50 degrees will be possible across the SE counties before temps fall after FROPA. Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over southwest Wisconsin, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the southern Plains. The low is forecast to reach eastern Michigan by this evening, with the cold front expected to be east of the forecast area by mid-afternoon. Next lobe of Arctic air poised to start its southward push, associated with a large upper low currently just north of Lake Winnipeg.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY.
409 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
256 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 A STRONG CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY SPIN SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
An associated cold front will do likewise with brisk northwest winds and a good deal of cloud cover overspreading the region this morning. Weak high pressure settles in today and Saturday while a stronger and larger area of low pressure aloft rotates southward out of Saskatchewan and western Alberta into the north central states Saturday night. Operational models are in good agreement in sending a chunk of energy/vorticity lobe down the backside of the upper low and across the Dakotas/MN/IA.
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THIS ZONE THAT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN WI. THERE WERE A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT MSN AND FLD AROUND THE 3 PM HOUR. SO THAT IS WHERE MOST OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS HAVE BEEN. SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TURN TO SMALL SNOW FLAKES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
401 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
DRIER AIR IS ATTEMPTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU NW LA AND IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
Another impact will be moisture or snow on the roads freezing up after sunset causing slick areas. Enough cold air should remain in the lower levels of the atmosphere to support precipitation mainly in the form of snow.
900 AM PST FRI JAN 15 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THERE'S BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A NWD SHIFT IN THE MODEL BIASES WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE MAKING ITS WAY EWD OUT OF THE WRN GULF LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOTICEABLE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO AIR MASS RECOVERY AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FEATURES. BUT HSV SHOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF IFR RANGE UNTIL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
315 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW DESCENT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THIS SHARP TROUGH AXIS. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY MOIST FRONTOGENETICAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.