Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Synopsis: short term begins with an area of hot high pressure developing over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. A ridge juts out of it toward the north through northern Idaho and British Columbia and Yukon Territory. A closed trough sets over the eastern Dakotas with northeast Montana in between under northwest flow aloft. This afternoon through Thursday Morning: As the ridge develops to the west a stable profiles will set up leaving partly cloudy to clear skies and dry conditions.
635 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 00Z TAFS High pressure will settle over the region tonight resulting in light winds and mostly clear skies. /issued 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017/ Low pressure at the surface and aloft across northwest Florida into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Rua Upper level trough will deepen along the east coast and absorb the system over Florida, while an upper level ridge will begin to build across the Southwest US into the Rockies.
617 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Should be a seasonably cool night as ridge of high pressure slides southward into the bi-state region. Leaned toward if not below cooler MET guidance for lows tonight due to these conditions.
18Z surface data had high pressure running from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains.
The models suggest convective development off the Black Hills or along a warm front draped across the White River. If this development can survive into the early evening, then the low level jet would cause an increase in inflow and the system should turn south and move through either Wrn or Ncntl Neb.
Otherwise, low temperatures have been a little cooler than expected the last few nights.
1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 It has been another very nice day with temperatures reaching the low 80s and dew points dropping into the 40s and 50s.
1145 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 All remains quiet across the Northwoods late this evening with strong high pressure and dry air thru the column overhead. temps will fall into the 40s inland and into the lower 50s along the lakeshores. High pressure centered across the region will remain in control of the weather through much of Thursday. An upstream weak cold front will approach late Thursday into Thursday night.
820 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Aviation A area of high pressure will be situated over the region through Thursday.
A low pressure system that has brought the unsettled weather to South Florida has moved off the Florida Panhandle coast. By Thursday morning, the models are hinting the low could split, with the main low shooting off to the northeast, ahead of a 500mb low sitting over the mid-Atlantic states.
607 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 High pressure will continue to bring quiet/pleasant weather to our area.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal through late week, becoming even cooler than normal this weekend.
This northerly 5-10 mph flow continues to advect in drier air that has allowed temperatures to warm up into the lower to mid 90s.
758 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Stratocumulus/cumulus deck continues to hold strong from Pennsylvania through the lower Ohio River Valley in association with an upper level low. The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure slowly moving across the Great lakes and low pressure and cold front well south of the region. This almost retrograding upper level low across portions of PA will continue to lead to some weak height falls. Also the freezing levels are not quite as low as predicted yesterday leading to less confidence on any small hail. This fog could lessen the risk of cooler valley temperatures overall.
1157 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and light winds during the upcoming forecast period.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have formed in the moist upslope flow over the High Plains of New Mexico, Texas, and Colorado this afternoon. Otherwise, we expect the light northeast winds to turn southeast by mid-morning Thursday as the effects of a weak "backdoor" cold front dissipate.
The CWA will be between high pressure to the north and to the southeast, with a weak boundary over mainly the southern part of the CWA. A building ridge aloft will set the stage for the next couple of days.
Upper level low was right near Grand Forks at midday today and combined with enough heating t-storms formed and enough mid and low level spin to create a classic non-supercell tornado environment, once the storms developed along a surface boundary in central Grand Forks county. Expect cluster of t-storms, some of which will produce small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph, to move over Bemidji early this evening right underneath upper low. Isolated showers forming on the west flank of upper low nr Grand Forks but these have little growth to them. then clearing or clear overnight as upper low departs and high pressure moves in.
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 High to build down into the region tonight w/ temps xpcd into the low to mid 60s under clr skies and light winds.
1154 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 06Z TAFS High pressure continues to build across the region this morning. /issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017/ High to build down into the region tonight w/ temps xpcd into the low to mid 60s under clr skies and light winds.
858 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 High pressure and the associated quiet weather pattern will persist across central and southeast Illinois overnight (and beyond). Strong ridging over the high plains and troughing over the eastern U. Pattern will keep the edge of any impacts of weak impulses topping the ridge out of our area.
739 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 As upper level low pressure develops over the upper Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, below normal temperatures and slight chances for showers will continue through the rest of the week.
Ridging at the surface and aloft brought mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures to northeast WI this afternoon. An upper trof and associated cold front was moving through the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Low temperatures should be in the lower to middle 50s. On Thursday, the cold front will move into GRB CWA, and should reach a Wausau to Antigo to Pembine line by 00z/Fri. The highest pops will be focused near the boundary over north centraal and far northeast WI. High temperatures should reach the middle to upper 70s, but slightly cooler lakeside. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Expect the chance for showers and thunderstorms to continue through Thursday evening as a cold front and mid level short wave push through the forecast area.
The weak boundary over western MN should move slowly east during the night and will be the focus of any organized convection as the upper trough translates east. Models suggest trough and weak boundary to focus to the east and south during the day Thursday and will hold PoPs over this region.
Quiet and seasonal wx conditions will continue into the evening hrs, as strong high pressure over the Midwest/OH Valley states gradually builds swd into the region. Even with a few mid/high clouds streaming into portions of the area from the w, skies should remain mostly clr for most of the night, as an upper low/trough axis over the Mid Atlantic also pivots swd. Cloud cover though may tempo increase Thu, as the upper low/trough pattern over the Mid Atlantic/OH Valley areas begins to gradually lift newd. Cloud cover may be a little more concentrated across NE AL on Thu, with some dynamic forcing becoming slightly better organized over extreme NE AL, invof the upper trough axis.
Strong ridging over the high plains and troughing over the eastern U. Pattern will keep the edge of any impacts of weak impulses topping the ridge out of our area.
603 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 It has been another very nice day with temperatures reaching the low 80s and dew points dropping into the 40s and 50s.
High pressure is situated to our north and west, with cool air and relatively low dew points across Middle Tennessee owing to a northerly flow.
Clouds will continue to be on the increase tonight with the cold front forecast to almost be in Sonoma County by midnight. Behind the front cooler air will work its way into our entire region with inland spots likely seeing the biggest drops.
Temperatures ranged from the mid- upper 60s in the Bluegrass region to the lower-middle 70s out toward the Pennyrile region. Temperatures will cool into the lower 60s in most locations during the evening. For Thursday and Thursday Night, the upper low over the northern Mid- Atlantic regions will generally stay in place. A small perturbation aloft will rotate through the upper trough to our east and may produce a stray shower over eastern KY. By Thursday night, the upper low will start to pull off to the east and dry conditions are expected with lows in the low to middle 50s. High pressure across the southeastern U.
Not sure if this will play too much of a roll since the lower levels are pretty weak.
It will be cooler tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico will become absorbed the northern stream upper low over the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Region by Thursday morning. allowing much drier and cooler air will filter into the area Thursday.
1244 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Aviation A area of high pressure will be situated over the region through Thursday.
It's been a beautiful day across Middle Tennessee as we feel the influences of high pressure over the Great Lakes region. This high will continue to filter below average temperatures in for another 36 hours. A retrograding upper trough will approach the plateau from the northeast tomorrow which will translate to more clouds and a slight chance of a shower or two for the Cumberland Plateau.
1013 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 A couple of showers leftover on the narrow cloud band wrapping on the west side of the upper low now moving east of Bemidji. Upper level low was right near Grand Forks at midday today and combined with enough heating t-storms formed and enough mid and low level spin to create a classic non-supercell tornado environment, once the storms developed along a surface boundary in central Grand Forks county. Expect cluster of t-storms, some of which will produce small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph, to move over Bemidji early this evening right underneath upper low. Isolated showers forming on the west flank of upper low nr Grand Forks but these have little growth to them. then clearing or clear overnight as upper low departs and high pressure moves in.
For tonight, would not be surprised if thunderstorm activity lingers through midnight due to a series of weak disturbances aloft moving southeast across the area ahead of the upper level ridge axis to the west. Warming trend will continue into Thursday as the upper level ridge axis moves eastward into Wyoming. High temperatures will climb into the 80's over the lower elevations of southeast Wyoming with highs likely near 90 further east. Models show well-defined warm air advection aloft across central Wyoming as this ridge builds into the area.
908 PM PDT Wed Jun 7 2017 A cold front tracks through overnight into Thursday bringing significantly cooler temperatures through the weekend. NAM and HRRR suggest the night will feature dry and mild conditions until the cold front arrives in the morning. /sb 00Z TAFS: Southerly flow ahead of an approaching trof is transporting mid and high level moisture into the region with cigs generally abv 12K ft AGL.
As for temperatures, with little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains, look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) once again tonight. A prevailing southerly flow will draw slightly warmer air into western Kansas Thursday allowing highs to push well up into the 80s(F) by late afternoon.
Surface boundary and attendant low move closer to the area as the axis of the mid-level trough pushes offshore. South to southwest winds will remain breezy to around 20 knots offshore into Thu morning, then the gradient will start to ease as weakening frontal trough approaches.
Atlantic high pressure will gradually build west over the area this weekend. Thursday: Cloudy and rainy conditions will continue early Thursday morning as a low pressure system strengthens and travels north near the US Atlantic coastline. Uncertainty in how much cloud cover persists during peak heating hours translates into larger error on the high temperature forecast, but high temperatures are generally expected to be several degrees lower than normal for this time of year.
856 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 The base of a deep upper trough continues to rotate south across the local area overnight. With the clearing skies, temps have already fallen into the lower 60s to around 70 and are expected to fall to the mid to upper 50s. Cloud cover though may tempo increase Thu, as the upper low/trough pattern over the Mid Atlantic/OH Valley areas begins to gradually lift newd. Cloud cover may be a little more concentrated across NE AL on Thu, with some dynamic forcing becoming slightly better organized over extreme NE AL, invof the upper trough axis.
The other message of the day will be the warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid 80s before any showers get going to cool things down.
1029 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 As upper level low pressure develops over the upper Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, below normal temperatures and slight chances for showers will continue through the rest of the week.
1006 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 High pressure will remain across the area through Thursday.
A quiet night expected across the region as northeast winds near 5 mph will continue to bring in drier and cooler air. Low temperatures will fall in the lower 60s across most of the region, with upper 50s possible north of Interstate 30.
An upper low on the PA/WV/MD border troughs down over much of the Gulf of Mexico with a weak short wave trough rotating through. At the surface a frontal boundary strung out across the northern Gulf waters and north Fl with a low pressure center on the northwest gulf portion sinks south over night. with the low pressure center easing onshore north-central FL. The extensive afternoon coverage has current waned but will pick back up toward dawn the short wave trough approaches. allowing the high risk of rip currents to end. a frontal boundary with an area of low pressure in the north Gulf and high pressure over and south of Cuba will keep winds southwest tonight with a relaxed gradient resulting in speeds around 15 knots.
Shower coverage will increase during the day tomorrow with the passage of an upper trough axis and daytime heating.
The upper ridge has rebounded across the Rockies as anticipated. keeping the highly mixed and unstable conditions in place. Strong heating this afternoon with moisture on top of the mixed layer is again leading to storms firing on the ridgelines over most of the region. Much drier air will be moving in Thursday as the ridge axis will be forced eastward by a strong upstream system moving toward the Left Coast of NOAM. Temperatures both day and night will be running around 10 degrees above normal and we could see some reading near 100 in the lower desert valleys. With fairly strong blocking downstream over the SE CONUS and adjacent waters.
A regional upper-level composite analysis identifies a rich vein of tropical moisture emanating from the western Caribbean, and accelerating into a deep, confluent southwesterly flow equatorward of a large-scale midlatitude trough. Southwest breezes should resume and freshen most areas during the next few hours as well, with winds likely reaching or exceeding 20 knots at marine exposures as local gradient flow maximizes south of a 1005mb low pressure area and north of a ridge, possibly enhanced somewhat by locally higher pressures beneath the slowly departing stratiform rain shield. An area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward slowly across the Florida Peninsula overnight through Thursday night.
As of 230z, a mid/upper-level trough axis was located to the east of the CWA with the area under the influence of NW flow and a much drier and cooler airmass with daytime highs this afternoon running about 5-7 degrees below average. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: Looking across the country this afternoon, troughs of low pressure were anchored off the West Coast and along the East Coast with a broad ridge extending from Mexico through the Plains. The ArkLaMiss region has seen building high pressure at the surface under northerly flow aloft today. This "cool" and dry pattern will continue through the night and into tomorrow, with highs and lows forecast to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal.
939 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 All remains quiet across the Northwoods late this evening with strong high pressure and dry air thru the column overhead. temps will fall into the 40s inland and into the lower 50s along the lakeshores. High pressure centered across the region will remain in control of the weather through much of Thursday. An upstream weak cold front will approach late Thursday into Thursday night.
620 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Upper level low was right near Grand Forks at midday today and combined with enough heating t-storms formed and enough mid and low level spin to create a classic non-supercell tornado environment, once the storms developed along a surface boundary in central Grand Forks county. Expect cluster of t-storms, some of which will produce small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph, to move over Bemidji early this evening right underneath upper low. Isolated showers forming on the west flank of upper low nr Grand Forks but these have little growth to them. then clearing or clear overnight as upper low departs and high pressure moves in.
Precipitation chances will continue to decrease through the end of the work week as ridging aloft takes place and as mid-level temps slowly start to warm.
Temps are in the lower 80s with NNE winds at 10-15 mph with some gusts. High pressure will gradually move south and settle over the Mid- South through the end of the week. Northwest flow aloft will prevail and gradually weaken as the upper low pulls away. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler tomorrow, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
A cold front is still expected through SE Oregon Thursday morning and SW Idaho Thursday afternoon.
Best chance of thunderstorms will shift south and east into the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains during Thursday as the aforementioned disturbances continue to track southeast into those locations.
946 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 No changes for tonight with high pressure in place.
Changes to the forecast today focused on these aspects, but the primary message remains the same: the next several days will be much wetter and much cooler than we would normally see this time of year.
This slow moving boundary has become rather diffuse through the day as it encounters a strengthening area of high pressure to the east. 850mb temperatures slightly warmer than today, so highs were bumped up a few degrees above guidance.
an upper low over the Ohio Valley may rotate a few showers into far northern areas.
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 No changes for tonight other than for observed trends through 23 UTC with high pressure in place. Latest satellite analysis indicates upper low spinning over northeast ND into northwest MN. Deterministic models continue the trend of an upper trough traversing the western U. Ahead of the trough we can expect a few days of very warm to hot temperatures and scattered thunderstorm chances.
A weakening split stream low over the Eastern Gulf will become ingested into the main 500mb flow as another H5 trough deepens and slightly retrogrades across the Ohio River Valley. This will keep the H5 ridge over the Western CONUS amplified with northwest flow aloft continuing. Given the overall dearth of moisture, have keep mentionable rainfall out of the forecast, but did up POPs to around a 10% chance on Thursday for the Lower RGV and coastal areas.
743 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure system moves into the region from southwest bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into the night. The northern portion associated with the upper level trough, will not be as well organized but will have more of an impact over the CWA, mainly across the northern Adirondacks and northern Vermont. Should see lows generally in the low-mid 50s, with patchy fog possible in the favored river valleys east of the Green Mtns and also within the Adirondack region.
Highs will reach the low 90s along the coast to low-mid 90s over the interior, with heat index values ranging from 100-105. The high pressure ridge axis over the North Florida waters will promote SE winds of 10-15 knots and up to 15 knots well offshore at times south of Cape Canaveral.
929 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Showers will continue to pull east through today as a low pressure system pushes toward the east coast. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the region through mid week. This should also help keep temps down somewhat so will trend temps down in the near term and go with highs mainly in the low to possibly mid 70s.
The high pressure center should be situated near southern Minnesota/northern Iowa by 00z tonight. We reduced the low temperatures tonight a bit more due to the expected radiational cooling. The extended periods are expected to exhibit a similar large-scale pattern as we have seen for most of this summer so far, with northwest flow prevailing across the Northland in between the mean eastern Canada upper trof and the mean long wave ridge over the interior western United States.
A subtle upper trough is noted moving across the high plains of Colorado tapping into low to mid level moisture in place across northeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Texas Panhandle with pretty nice area of showers having developed from south of Dalhart northward into the western half of the Oklahoma Panhandle. As of 3:30 am, dewpoints are currently in the mid 60s on the Caprock and in the low 70s in the southern Rolling Plains. As storms continue to develop on the higher terrain to the west and north and move across our latitude, our best chance for convection will be from outflow associated with those storms.
926 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 No changes other than for observed trends through 14 UTC with high pressure in place. For the rest of today and tonight: high pressure settles in over the state resulting in highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dry conditions.
High pressure centered over the western Great Basin will slowly break down with increased thunderstorm activity expected across northern and central Utah for the first half of the week while a drier airmass gradually spreads into southern Utah.
1043 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure slowly exits to our south and east this morning. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic region late today and pass southeast of Cape Cod Tuesday morning accompanied by a steadier and heavier period of rainfall. Showers and eventually some storms should begin to initiate off the higher terrain in the next few hours. light showers and eventually rain will gradually move in as low pressure and LLJ strengthen this evening and overnight. a weak ridge was centered over the Connecticut Valley of New England. the weak ridge retreats offshore this morning. Precipitation tapers from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning as the low and upper trough slide well offshore.
803 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Scattered rain showers will spread northeast across the area today as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley. The low will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening as high pressure builds East over the forecast area.
1029 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail today.
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A mean layered ridge centered southwest of Bermuda stretches west into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures range from the lower 80s in rain cooled Key West, to near 90 in portions of the Middle Keys.