Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1108 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016 17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO MONTANA. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST AND AN INCREASING CIRRUS DECK WILL LIMIT FULL SURFACE HEATING.
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE MID/UPPER LVLS AND UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. UPPER LVL RIDGING OVERHEAD.
WE WILL END THE WEEKEND ON A QUIET AND WARMER NOTE. AS AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD AND AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS PROMOTES HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
243 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
AN INTENSE UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC & IS THE MORE DOMINANT OF THE 2 CHARACTERS. THE WLY WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH SUNNY SKIES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER & MID 40S. ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS THE PERSISTENT NW MID-UPPER FLOW DRIVES MASSIVE(!) HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH THE W/NW SFC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE N THEN NE COOLER/COLDER WEATHER IS CERTAIN FOR ALL AREAS. A SHARP UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE W COAST TUE EVENING WILL PUSH E ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON WED AT WHICH TIME IT BEGINS TO SHEAR.
LAST NIGHT WAS THE FIRST TIME THAT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL FELL BELOW FREEZING THIS WINTER. AN ODD EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEPICTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A LATITUDINALLY- ORIENTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS PULLED DUE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TOWARD ALASKA.
LGT/VRBL WINDS TODAY TO BECOME NORTHERLY PREVAILING 4-8 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF ON SUNDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL SK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. REX-TYPE BLOCK OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN AS UPPER LOW OVER OR SHIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THE NORTHEAST 1/3 WILL SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A CLOUDY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES.
1205 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. /ISSUED 435 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ CONTINUED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY BE BELOW FREEZING.
1137 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. AT LEAST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
131 PM MST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY.
AND BRING COOLER AIR AND STRATUS OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW COVER. THIS SHOULD FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE.
1236 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
220 PM MST SAT JAN 2 2016 17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO MONTANA. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST AND AN INCREASING CIRRUS DECK WILL LIMIT FULL SURFACE HEATING.
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS IN CIMARRON COUNTY TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
306 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 A COLD FRONT. MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE LAYER OVER THE LAKE WILL CLIMB TO ABOUT 3500 FEET DEEP OVERNIGHT. THE PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES COULD ADD UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY. THE LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. SFC AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA. BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY RESULTING IN 5-12F COOLER THAN TODAY.
Expect the quiet weather to continue tonight ahead of a dry cold front that will shift the winds to the north for Sunday with colder temperatures.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL COVER ROUGHLY THE THE NE HALF OF THE FA BY MORNING. WITH COLUMN COOLER TEMPERATURES NOT AS MILD AS TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS ARE A BIT COOLER AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. AND NEXT UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING W/NW BL FLOW USHERING WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE CWFA. UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
1236 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS PREVENTING PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS WRN PA TO SE NY TUE NGT. AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES LT TUE NGT. WITH THE BEST LGT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Outside of thunderstorms, strong gradient winds are also forecast, just ahead of and particularly behind the cold front this afternoon.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.
345 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 Not many changes to the current forecast, as WV imagery shows a continuing pattern of NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as an upper trough moves thru the Central Plains. This will change fairly quickly as a cold front to the northwest and north of the dryline begins scouring moisture south and east over the next few hours, w/the hires NAM putting fropa at KMAF at around 11Z. On Wednesday, however, a secondary trough will dive out of the nrn Rockies, spawning a leeside trough along the Front Range and down into the Texas Panhandle.
1240 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE VERY LOW TODAY SO WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS. A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE.
CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE CWA BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SERVED AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR BANDED SNOW VIA A PRODUCTION DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT.
201 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 A digging upper level short wave trough and associated cold front will sweep southeast across the region this morning. We do expect convection to fill in immediately behind that surface cold front across west-central Missouri and southeastern Kansas over the next few hours. The high temperature forecast today was tricky as strong cold air advection will develop behind the front. High pressure will then settle southeast across the Mid- Mississippi Valley tonight and will result in quiet weather and quickly decreasing winds.
215 AM MST TUE MAR 01 2016 VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS OK/N TX FROM 06Z TO ABOUT 15Z. /ISSUED 1008 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/ ADJUSTED SEVERAL GRIDS FOR ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS EVENING.
THEN GUST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH ERN CO. TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BUT STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST OF MARCH. A WEAK UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THU. THAT UPR RIDGE THEN GETS FLATTENED THU NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. AN UPR RIDGE WL BE REBUILDING OVR THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA. LOCATIONS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS LAST NIGHT IN ALBERTA SAW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S F BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
THIS HIGH MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
1045 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT MOVED ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IS NOW WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS. POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES, PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES AND VERY SPOTTY, WEAKENING SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY TONIGHT WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES AND A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH SOME BRIEF IFR IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
235 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE A LEAD WAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. A COUPLE OF THE PERTURBATIONS DEEPEN THE LEAD WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH / EASTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO BE PROBABLE AND WILL SUPPORT INCREASE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SCENARIO OF A LEAD WAVE INITIALLY BOOSTING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH WOULD CONTINUE IN RELATIVELY LONG DURATION AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WITH DEEP MIXING.
1129 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 COLD FRONT HAS DISSECTED THE CWA TODAY WITH COOL 30S NORTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER A TROUGH STRETCHES TO THE SW. COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE WAVE TOWARDS MORNING AND COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA. WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK TO NW FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED WITH YET ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A MORE ROBUST TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MUCH WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. LAWSON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE SEA BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK.
WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR A CROWELL TEXAS TO LAWTON TO SHAWNEE LINE AT 345 AM. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. SLIGHTLY PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS.
ON THAT NOTE, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. 77 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 01/14Z-15Z WHEN LOWER MVFR CLOUDS BEGIN TO AFFECT N AL/S MIDDLE TN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT OUR OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH BETTER LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
The storms over south central Missouri are being forced by strong low level moisture convergence associated with the low level jet whereas the storms over central Missouri are along the surface cold front. We will still reach our highs this morning ahead of the cold front and then see nearly steady or falling temperatures the rest of the day.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WITH CALMING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE - LOWS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S AREAWIDE. A NICE SUNNY WARM-UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW AND UPPER 70S.
ONSHORE WINDS AND THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL KEEP OUR COASTAL LOCATIONS A BIT COOLER GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
446 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA WITH CAA CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS CNRTL NY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH READINGS IN NE PA STILL IN THE LOWER 30S.
Winds of 15 to 25 mph will decrease this afternoon as weak high pressure builds into the region. Highs today will be around 60 except slightly cooler mid 50s north and east of Dodge City. Light and variable winds become south around 10 to 15 mph by morning as a trough of low pressure develops into northwest Kansas. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the mid to upper 30s with increasing and shifting northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with an associated cold front.
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE EVENING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY TODAY.
1008 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 ADJUSTED SEVERAL GRIDS FOR ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS EVENING.
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WILL CARRY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND AND STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH LITTLE INSOLATION AND GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.
348 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING LATE TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND PWAT VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN 40+ KNOT GUSTS IS HIGHEST BASED ON PATH OF LLJ. CHARACTERISTICS OF EVENT LEAN MORE TOWARDS A RIDGE-BASED AS OPPOSED TO AREAWIDE ADVISORY WINDS BASED ON LOCAL STUDY. BUT UP TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CL STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAYBE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTS WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA BUT BECOME DIFFUSE AS THEY PASS ACROSS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES CATCH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND EVEN DEVELOPS A LITTLE COLD POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
41 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE. DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
904 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT MOVED ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IS NOW WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS. POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES, PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES AND VERY SPOTTY, WEAKENING SHOWERS. ADDED VCFG TO KHVR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE PRECIP EARLIER TODAY. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY TONIGHT WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES AND A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY.
Despite the current modest low level WAA regime, the atmosphere is initially quite dry within the lowest 3+ km as evident in the SGF and TOP soundings. Overnight the moisture return improves and large scale ascent spreads into the region associated with the upstream digging short wave trof, which should lead to increasing coverage of showers and even some thunderstorms given the presence of steep mid level lapse rates. SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Cold front over southern Iowa is continuing to sink southward, but strengthening low pressure over Kansas is starting slow the front down with southerly flow over Missouri. Areal coverage and intensity of the precip increases as low level moisture convergence intensifies on the low level jet.
Forecast confidence is above average with this forecast package, owing to the convergence in placement and timing among the higher resolution, short fuse, guidance and the longer, medium range guidance. Most of the moisture and inherent instability is tied to a mesoscale wave perturbation ahead of the main trough at 12z Tuesday and will be the primary trigger for mainly elevated convection prior to sunrise. The NAM and GFS deterministic runs suggest that most surface to 1 km CAPE will push into Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois between 12z-15z Tuesday (6 am-9 am CST) and become expended between 15z-18z (9am-noon CST) along the surface cold front. There will be some expansion of the frontal zone during the late morning and early afternoon, as lift associated with the main trough axis works through the region during the afternoon.
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A POSITIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. BUT DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDDAY AS THE FRONT USHERS IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE.
Cold front will continue to sweep southeast early this morning with showers and storms most likely ending prior to 18z.
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. 47 COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
Warm frontal precipitation has made landfall over western WA/OR and is reaching the southern WA Cascades. The warm front will lift into BC during the afternoon which should bring a break in the precipitation for many locations. The cold front will sweep through around 5pm. RJ 06Z TAFS: A warm front will bring several hours of MVFR/IFR rain to the TAF sites on Tuesday morning. There should be a break in the precipitation at most locations in the afternoon before a cold front sweeps through the area during the late afternoon. This cold front could have a couple of hours of heavy rain showers. Strong gusty winds will develop behind the cold front.
SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BUT A STRONG COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SEEN AS UPPER TROUGH WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND NORTHERLY FETCH IS WEAK. GOING A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I- 37 WILL ONLY SEE 70S. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
1157 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUE/WED. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS THEN FORECAST FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST SURGE OF WARM AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING TSTMS TO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL WILL WASH OUT BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING FL WL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOCAL EFFECTS ASIDE FROM VEERING WINDS TO A SW TO W COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND UPR 70S ALONG THE COAST.
355 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED THE FL PENINSULA ATTM MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AND THE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WAS ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THUS KEEPING FOG AT BAY FOR THE TIME BEING. PULLING THE ASSOCIATED LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE EXPECT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS PAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP ONCE AGAIN.
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS IL/IN/OH TODAY. WHILE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES IN THE NAM ARE 500 J/KG IN THE PLATEAU.