Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Excessive heat will continue into the middle portion of this week as strong high pressure remains in the region. Thunderstorms are starting to develop over the higher terrain of Graham and Greenlee Counties as well as the mountains of Santa Cruz County. However, as this activity moves into the lower valleys it will be battling a drying trend in the lower atmosphere.
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Upper level high pressure centered to the west of the region will continue to dominate through the period.
337 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2020 An anomolously strong upper level ridge remains centered over the western United States with 500 mb heights climbing to 601 decameters this afternoon over Utah. Tomorrow should be a repeat of today, with more hot temperatures on the plains and an assortment of fair weather cumulus and a few showers over the higher terrain.
The overall pattern includes a trough from the Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes region and into the Appalachian Mountains; there is the persistent dominating ridge across the western third of the CONUS which has led to record heat in locations across the Desert Southwest and heat advisories and warnings all the way into Washington, Idaho and Montana.
718 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 High pressure across the area has kept the area clear with light winds. As the high moves off to the east, winds will turn more toward the south, but should remain fairly light through the evening. An upper level ridge holds steady in the western CONUS through much of the period, then builds a little further to the east during the weekend and into Monday. With the ridge in the west, this area is mainly under northwest flow. There are a few on and off chances for thunderstorms as upper level waves move across the ridge and dive south across the area.
Late tonight a weak associated cold front will enter northwest North Dakota and basically bring a wind shift to the north. It appears a weak ripple in the flow aloft is connected to these surface features, which should not generate any precipitation owing to the broad subsidence associated with the h500 ridge to the west of North Dakota. An upper ridge entrenched across the western third of the CONUS will keep conditions dry and hot through the short term.
Weak cold front moving through the dvn cwa with only isolated showers along the front, but convergence near the front was weak. Elsewhere, northwest/north winds behind the front were ushering cooler and less humid air into northern IA and into MN/WI where temperatures were in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Then high pressure building into the area from the the Upper Midwest will bring clear skies, cooler and less humid conditions. Tuesday: Delightful mid August day with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures and humidity, thanks to high pressure. 3) Gradually warmer temperatures as the week progresses. Overview: Split flow with big heat dome in the western United States (hottest in 70 years!) and large trough from Quebec to the eastern states.
Drier air remains present across our far northern counties with dewpoints observed in the low to mid 60s across the Tennessee Valley. No major changes were made during this time period, with high temps in the low to mid 90s, as 1000-850mb thicknesses are expected to increase.
554 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2020 High pressure remains in control over the western CONUS today. This high pressure system is centered over western Utah, placing eastern Utah and western Colorado in light northerly flow in the mid and upper-levels. A meager amount of moisture has circled around this high pressure system, and has encroached on the Sawatch and Sand Juan mountains this afternoon. High pressure is not expected to move much, if at all, and isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible in the San Juan range.
/issued 305 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020/ A strong subtropical ridge over the Great Basin will remain anchored over the western CONUS through the weekend. Northwesterly winds aloft downstream of this ridge will flow into a trough over the eastern CONUS.
High pressure will remain fairly stagnant to our west, with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Storms will begin over the high terrain, moving southward into lower elevations each afternoon and evening.
917 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A quiet night continues as high pressure remains over the area. For tonight, mostly clear skies and calm winds as high pressure sits over the area. Cold pool aloft slides east tonight with low pressure builds in east moderating air mass some. Low pressure tracking north of the International border should have a cold front/boundary trailing slowly through ND creating synoptic scale forcing.
The lowering dew points should be enough to prevent much in the way of any fog development. /NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: As a steep and stagnant upper ridge continues to reside over the desert southwest, light NW flow will remain apparent over ArkLaMiss this evening and into tonight. Dry conditions will prevail for most of the region tomorrow but can't completely count out a stray shower or storm in the northern portions of our region tomorrow afternoon as a weak surface front associated with increasing upper troughiness over the eastern half of the US swings into the ArkLaMiss. Highs on tomorrow should reach the low 90s areawide.
High pressure will weaken, but move very little through the week.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday night/ A few showers and thunderstorms will continue near the Red River along a slowly moving cold front. The remainder of the night will be partly cloudy and seasonably warm with lows in the lower and middle 70s. The cold front will finally move through the entire CWA on Tuesday. Although the air behind the front will not be much cooler, it will be drier which should make for a more tolerable afternoon. The drier air behind the front and large scale subsidence associated with the upper ridge to the west will keep Tuesday/Tuesday night precipitation free.
An upper level high pressure centered over the western US has left the TAF sites in upper level northwest flow. /Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020/ Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon with boundary briefly stalling in the higher terrain across northwest Arkansas.
1047 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A weak cold front will exit the Commonwealth tonight. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes through midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week. Long wave trough a little more tilted to the negative than previously advertised. High pressure and associated low-pwat air mass building in from the Grt Lks should result in fair and seasonable conditions Tuesday over most of the region. However, a weak wave of low pressure tracking south of the state appears likely to produce at least a period of increased cloudiness by late Tuesday. The synoptic pattern from midweek through the weekend will primarily feature weak troughing aloft and high pressure at the surface.
For tonight, mostly clear skies and calm winds as high pressure sits over the area. Cold pool aloft slides east tonight with low pressure builds in east moderating air mass some. Low pressure tracking north of the International border should have a cold front/boundary trailing slowly through ND creating synoptic scale forcing.
A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air is making its way south through the area at this time with little fanfare.
901 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A surface front was draped across N FL/S GA this evening meandering under weak steering flow aloft within the axis of a weakening mid level trough. The 00z JAX RAOB showed an increase in deep layer moisture back up to near 2 inches and cooler mid level temps with 500 mb at -7 deg/C. Low temps will range near climo in the low 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s toward the Atlantic coast with muggy conditions. A light southwest flow ahead of upper trough axis with slight cooling aloft will mean slow moving scattered storms this evening with the main threats being locally heavy rainfall with frequent lightning and strong gusty winds mainly in cell and boundary mergers.
/28/ Tonight and tomorrow: As a steep and stagnant upper ridge continues to reside over the desert southwest, light NW flow will remain apparent over ArkLaMiss this evening and into tonight. Dry conditions will prevail for most of the region tomorrow but can't completely count out a stray shower or storm in the northern portions of our region tomorrow afternoon as a weak surface front associated with increasing upper troughiness over the eastern half of the US swings into the ArkLaMiss. Highs on tomorrow should reach the low 90s areawide.
Winds will settle out of the north- northwest in the wake of cold frontal passage. Skies will become partly cloudy during the late afternoon as a broken cumulus deck should form with sufficient boundary layer moisture and the 850 mb thermal trough still overhead.
Weak high pressure will build in behind the trough Tuesday. An upper level trough will then approach the area Tuesday night but stall out to our west, as the surface front holds nearly stationary over the central and eastern Carolinas. Dew points in the 60s should provide a bit of relief from the high heat and humidity levels of much of July and August, thus far. This will put NC in a moist southerly flow between the trough and the Bermuda high.
1124 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Some moisture flux within north-northwest flow may occur overnight as slighly cooler air works across the water lake Huron waters. Skies will become partly cloudy during the late afternoon as a broken cumulus deck should form with sufficient boundary layer moisture and the 850 mb thermal trough still overhead.
After that cooler and more stable air will begin to move into the PacNW, as the upper high to our east slowly shifts eastward.
Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a large dome of high pressure situated over the western half of the CONUS. Meanwhile a broad trough was encompassing the eastern half of the country. Today through Monday Models are in rather good agreement showing that the western upper ridge will gradually deamplify somewhat over the next several days with a series of impulses pushing through aloft.
Northerly winds will usher in cooler temperatures for today, with highs from upper 70s to the mid 80s and lows tonight in the upper 50s.
/Today through Monday/ The Upper Midwest will remain in between a large upper ridge to the west and a substantial trough to the east.
331 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 An upper level trough will remain over the area today, with a few isolated showers possible, mostly across the north.
1059 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2020 High pressure remains in control over the western CONUS today. This high pressure system is centered over western Utah, placing eastern Utah and western Colorado in light northerly flow in the mid and upper-levels. A meager amount of moisture has circled around this high pressure system, and has encroached on the Sawatch and Sand Juan mountains this afternoon. High pressure is not expected to move much, if at all, and isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible in the San Juan range.
/Tonight/ Much quieter night across the region than the previous night, as we continue to observe cooler temps and dew points areawide in the wake of a rare August cold front. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Pattern over the next three periods will be characterized by dry high pressure at the surface and aloft maintaining mostly clear skies areawide. Additionally, a cooler airmass in place will bring overnight low temperatures down into the upper 60s to around 70 both tonight and Tuesday night with afternoon highs on Tuesday in the lower to mid 90s.
307 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A large upper level high pressure area centered in the Great Basin will move little the next seven days and will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
259 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 High pressure will bring dry conditions for the remainder of the work week.
243 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Ohio Valley will approach the Mid- Atlantic region today and then stall across the area for the remainder of the week.
But overall, the remainder of the week should be dry and refreshingly cooler when compared to the relatively warm and humid summer. Otherwise, most areas should remain dry and cooler with high temperatures in the 70s, with higher terrain perhaps not getting out of the 60s. High pressure will build in tonight.
An anomalously strong upper level ridge remains centered over the western United States with 500 mb heights climbing to 601 decameters this afternoon over Utah. Tomorrow should be a repeat of today, with more hot temperatures on the plains and an assortment of fair weather cumulus and a few showers over the higher terrain.
215 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 One dry and cooler summer day yesterday will give way to chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day through the forecast. Another cold front will move through with the trough as well, so that will help keep temperatures below seasonal normals. As the trough slowly moves east, it will dig southward slightly and remain over the mid state overnight.
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 High pressure across the area has kept the area clear with light winds. As the high moves off to the east, winds will turn more toward the south, but should remain fairly light through the evening. An upper level ridge holds steady in the western CONUS through much of the period, then builds a little further to the east during the weekend and into Monday. With the ridge in the west, this area is mainly under northwest flow. There are a few on and off chances for thunderstorms as upper level waves move across the ridge and dive south across the area.
Strengthening northerly winds will allow high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
303 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A weak short wave trough embedded in northwest flow aloft which produced yesterdays rain has exited the area. With high pressure building into the area today following passage of the cold front yesterday, cooler and less humid conditions can be expected.
259 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 08Z upper level analysis has large ridge over the Great Basin region with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located across the upper midwest with weak trof developing in the lee of the Rockies. Great Basin upper ridge will dominate the weather pattern for much of the week into the weekend.
Aloft a trough is over much of the east half of the country. The frontal boundary over the gulf and upper trough aloft will keep a deep north flow in place today. The dry north flow will keep rain chances minimal and heat indices reasonable today, however isolated afternoon thunderstorms may be possible in the lower Atchafalaya Basin where moisture is slightly higher.
Cliff Expected Flight Category: VFR Synopsis: Strong ridge of High Pressure continues to keep things dry and hot over the region.
Temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer today with the lack of cloud cover with values back above seasonal averages. The upper high will remain to our west through most of the forecast period keeping the region under mostly northerly flow aloft.
1044 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A quiet night continues as high pressure remains over the area. For tonight, mostly clear skies and calm winds as high pressure sits over the area. Cold pool aloft slides east tonight with low pressure builds in east moderating air mass some. Low pressure tracking north of the International border should have a cold front/boundary trailing slowly through ND creating synoptic scale forcing.
235 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A cold front will push southeast into the Ohio Valley today.
1003 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 GOES IR imagery and area METARs showed scattered midlevel clouds gradually increasing in coverage over the lower Ohio River valley. This feature and a weak cold front will track southeast through the Midsouth late morning/early afternoon Tuesday. /issued 305 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020/ A strong subtropical ridge over the Great Basin will remain anchored over the western CONUS through the weekend. Northwesterly winds aloft downstream of this ridge will flow into a trough over the eastern CONUS.
1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 High pressure and VFR conditions will continue through the period. Upper level high pressure centered to the west of the region will continue to dominate through the period.
Appears crossover temps being a bit lower and the ridge axis not far enough southeast will keep much fog from forming but river valleys in northern and western areas still seem quite possible to see some fog.
/issued 1003 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020/ GOES IR imagery and area METARs showed scattered midlevel clouds gradually increasing in coverage over the lower Ohio River valley. This feature and a weak cold front will track southeast through the Midsouth late morning/early afternoon Tuesday. /issued 305 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020/ A strong subtropical ridge over the Great Basin will remain anchored over the western CONUS through the weekend. Northwesterly winds aloft downstream of this ridge will flow into a trough over the eastern CONUS.
In the upper atmosphere, the region is nestled between a ridge out west and a trough to the east.
458 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A slow moving cold front will move across the area today and tonight, and will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky. Extensive cloud cover and widespread rain will keep temperatures well below normal values today, with highs ranging from the upper 70s in a few locations in our far north, to the lower 80s everywhere else.
425 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Cooler, drier and less humid weather will prevail today with mostly sunny skies.
We will be under the Eastern US longwave trough aloft, and a short wave will be dropping down and reinforcing this trough during the period, carving out a new trough axis just to our west.
300 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Generally dry weather is expected much of the rest of the week under high pressure, though a few showers are possible south of Pittsburgh with crossing waves of low pressure.
High pressure continues to build into the area at the surface, with a dry N-NW flow aloft. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 69 87 67 84 / 10 20 60 20 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 67 84 65 84 / 10 30 60 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 84 65 84 / 20 30 60 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 62 81 62 81 / 20 30 70 20 80.
High temperatures for today will reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s, with cooler temperatures occuring in areas with early forming cloud cover and convection.
157 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Varying degrees of upper ridging will dominate the weather across Montana through this weekend. This ridge will bring highs near 100 over many parts of NE Montana this afternoon.
Severe chances overall look relatively low but the highest deep layer shear will probably exist over areas around and west of the James valley where mid-level winds are expected to be strongest through the period.
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A slow moving cold front will move across the area today and tonight, and will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky. Extensive cloud cover and widespread rain will keep temperatures well below normal values today, with highs ranging from the upper 70s in a few locations in our far north, to the lower 80s everywhere else.
A subtle short wave trough will move southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas late tonight.
1003 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Surface analysis this evening shows the TN Valley is stuck between two stationary boundaries with a weak area of high pressure in place. The short term portion of the forecast will continue to feature a highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The eastern long wave trough is likely to undergo even further amplification as a series of short wave troughs move southward along its western flank into the lower or mid Miss Valley.
1120 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A weak cold front will exit the Commonwealth tonight. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes through midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week. Long wave trough a little more tilted to the negative than previously advertised. High pressure and associated low-pwat air mass building in from the Grt Lks should result in fair and seasonable conditions Tuesday over most of the region. However, a weak wave of low pressure tracking south of the state appears likely to produce at least a period of increased cloudiness by late Tuesday. The synoptic pattern from midweek through the weekend will primarily feature weak troughing aloft and high pressure at the surface.
A cold front is will move through the CWA late this afternoon through this evening. Otherwise, most of the CWA should be dry and mostly sunny with cooler temps. With the cold front past the CWA Tuesday night, dry weather will return to the area as high pressure builds into the region. Temps will start as a tad cooler than normal, but warm back to around or just above normal by the end of the week and through the weekend.
The upper level trough that has persisted over the eastern CONUS the past couple of days will continue to amplify through the day on Tuesday, but begin to become more positively tilted. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will maintain its hold over the western CONUS during this time. At the surface, a cold front has stalled near the coast this evening. By Tuesday morning, another weak cold front will progress over the ARKLATEX region and Tennessee Valley, eventually stalling near the coast by Tuesday evening.
On the synoptic scale, strong upper high was centered over the southwest CONUS with ridge axis extending northward to Montana. Upper level high remains centered over the southwest through much of the period.
653 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 An upper level trough will remain over the area today, with a few isolated showers possible, mostly across the north. Dry and quiet weather expected on Wednesday as high pressure pushes into the Northeast U. 330 AM Update An upper level trough will remain over the region through the day today. Cool/moist NW cyclonic flow will produce scattered to broken clouds this afternoon and as a weak short wave pivots around the trough, a few isolated to scattered showers will develop across the north this afternoon. The upper trough pushes eastward tonight as surface ridging and drier air builds into the region. High pressure will remain overhead tomorrow, but temperature will remain cool with only low 70s expected for highs by the afternoon.
Highs today in the low/mid 90s, lows in the low 70s. (previous) Southwesterly flow persisting as the Atlantic ridge axis remains south and east of the local area with a mid level trough situated over the GOMEX.
Deterministic NWP models predict a quasi-stationary upper pattern during the period, with an upper ridge centered over the WRN CONUS, while an approximately N-S upper trough axis remains over the Mississippi Valley/CNTRL Gulf of Mexico.
One dry and cooler summer day yesterday will give way to chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day through the forecast. Another cold front will move through with the trough as well, so that will help keep temperatures below seasonal normals. As the trough slowly moves east, it will dig southward slightly and remain over the mid state overnight. On Wednesday, the GFS/ECMWF bring the upper trough a little further south, with the GFS showing a closed upper low developing by the late afternoon.
/issued 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020/ A large upper level high pressure area centered in the Great Basin will move little the next seven days and will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
But overall, the remainder of the week will be dry and refreshingly cooler when compared to the relatively warm and humid summer. An upper level trough will remain over the region today. Otherwise, most areas should remain dry and cooler with high temperatures in the 70s, with higher terrain perhaps not getting out of the 60s. High pressure will build in tonight.