Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1015 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERING AROUND PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR SINKS SOUTH. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WRAP AROUND THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
SATELLITE SHOWING COLD AND STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE DENDRITIC ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE. MID LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT IT GOT TODAY. SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING AND NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/ISSUED 729 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015/ STILL LOOKING AT A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS GEORGIA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING NOTICEABLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
/issued 122 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/ Strong upper trough will cut off today along AZ/Mex border and the low will track into the area early Sunday then lift northeast overnight to the Red River by Monday morning. This low will bring cold and snow to the region.
MINIMUM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE 4- CORNERS REGION AND UPPER RIDGING ON BOTH COASTS. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SRN IA /PER ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/ SO KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO YIELD A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SWD INTO THE REGION. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPS REMAIN AOB FREEZING.
ALL THREE OF THE MAIN MODELS HAVE THE SAME TRACK FOR THE UPPER LOW. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO PLACE THIS AREA IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HINTED AT THE LOWER AMOUNTS. WARM AIR ALOFT IS PRESENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EARLY FORECAST ALONG WITH ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALONG WITH RAPID AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
358 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TX TO MOVE INTO THE IA/IL/WI AREA BY 06Z TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z WED. A WEAKER UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AND WED AND PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW FOR THE AREA. 5 INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
Later tonight a cold front will be drawn southward moving across much of the CWA by morning knocking back temperatures. Tomorrow night as temperatures fall the rain is expected to mix with/change over to freezing rain, sleet, and snow and before changing over to all snow by Monday morning across our northwestern counties. However, 3-5 inch snowfall amounts combined with sleet and freezing rain are currently in the forecast mainly for locations along the KS/MO border north to points west of the I-35 corridor to the IA border.
A strong upper low over Arizona this afternoon will remain southwest of the area through Sunday with strong diffluent flow over the area. The low will track through the area on Monday, drawing colder air into the region with it, but taking the majority of any measurable precipitation with it as well. May be cold enough to generate some light snow in the far western portion of the CWA on Monday, but with surface temperatures around or slightly above freezing not expecting to measure more than a couple tenths of an inch of snow at this point.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY EVENING. A STRONG YET SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE GULF. THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MOVING THROUGH THE LONE STAR STATE INTO THE ARKANSAS OZARKS BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE NAM IS ALSO STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER THAT REFREEZING WOULD OCCUR. WITH MODELS FAVORING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD (FINALLY!) SCOUR OUT ALL THE PESKY STRATUS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO WHAT COULD GO WRONG? THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL THAT THE INVERSION PROVES TOO STRONG TO ALLOW US TO COMPLETELY GET RID OF THE LOWER STRATUS.
1114 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 BROAD TROUGHING CRUNCHING DOWN RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET LEADING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. NOT EXACTLY A STRONGER CONVERGENT OR IMPINGING BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
1239 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL RETROGRADE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW. TRENDED A TAD WARMER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THOUGH. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL SPINNING ABOUT A CENTER OVER FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM GULF REGION AS SURFACE BERMUDA RIDGE LAYS ACROSS EASTERN U. AND MID STATE ON SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN INSITU AS WEAK SHORT WAVES WORK NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING TONIGHT FOR THE MID STATE WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONVECTION MAY BE SKIMPY AT TIMES. BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES EASTERN U.
1134 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 591 DM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AND BRING THE RETURN OF PCPN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
UPDATE: AFTERNOON CONVECTION TIED TO MEANDERING UPPER LOW NOW IN EXTREME SOUTHERN IL HAS JUST ABOUT TOTALLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY TRY TO REFORM DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW, MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER TN. WITH LOW LEVEL RH CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CARRY INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
707 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING.
Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough of low pressure is moving eastward across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Near the surface, a near stalled cold front extends from eastern Colorado northeast into northwest Kansas. The highest surface based CAPE values (>2000 j/kg) were in far western Kansas where the highest dewpoints and highest potential temperatures were located.
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER PRESSURE RIDGES. A WEAK TROF AXIS WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MAINTAINS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHRA/FEW TSRA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT THE TROF AXIS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE TROF AXIS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
744 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH TEMPS NEARLY 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW.
945 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
1033 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HAZY, WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT MONDAY WHICH NORMALLY WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.
1023 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO REACH IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. CONDITIONS MAY BE COOLER ALONG THE COASTLINE.
Weak mid/upper lvl trof will meander across the region during the next 24 to 36 hours.
931 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 591 DM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 81 70 81 / 30 80 80 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 83 68 81 / 20 80 80 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 82 69 80 / 20 80 80 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 86 67 81 / 20 50 80 60.
716 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 SFC COLD FRONT IS SINKING SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA AND IS SEPARATING THE MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO ENTER NORTHERN IOWA. CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE.
with an elongated trough west of the area over the Mississippi Valley and a ridge off the Southeast U. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast with a trough along the west coast of FL. Min temps will generally be in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s near the coast.
Strong high pressure from the Desert SW will continue to build NWwd early this week with daytime highs continuing to be over 100 degrees in the central valley.
1242 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
609 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 Weak mid/upper lvl trof will meander across the region during the next 24 to 36 hours.
657 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AND BRING THE RETURN OF PCPN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING A COOLING TREND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND A GREATER EXTENT OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS.
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS COVERING MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN US. THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER. THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
950 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
749 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BLANK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
/ISSUED 111 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY. A MINOR WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ROUND THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE WESTWARD DRIFTING UPPER RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE MOST PART. MOST AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WEAK MIXING AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 70S (EVEN WITH SOLAR.
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT.
638 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 THE COLD FRONT WAS STUCK ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS TO JUST WEST OF HINCKLEY AT 19Z. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERCOLATE OVER NW WI TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE EWD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE THUR-FRI TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. AS WE SLOWLY SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
/issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge has migrated a little further west over the past 24 hrs, and is now centered over SoCal/SW AZ. Convection that developed over eastern NM last night developed SW around the ridge and into SE NM, w/isolated activity ongoing. Sfc flow has veering from E to SE over the past 24 hrs, and return/upslope flow will continue to promote development over the higher wrn terrain, where richer theta-e remains.
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HAZY, WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
626 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH UPPER- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
738 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HAZY, WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
1038 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 CURRENTLY - A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DUE TO A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CO THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TONIGHT WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 66 TO 69. MEANWHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHS FOR MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS TO AROUND 90 FOR EAST CENTRAL KS BASED ON 850MB TEMP PROGS.
1035 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
925 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 BROAD TROUGHING CRUNCHING DOWN RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET LEADING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. NOT EXACTLY A STRONGER CONVERGENT OR IMPINGING BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
WEAK SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MAINTAINS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE TROF AXIS. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER PRESSURE RIDGES. A WEAK TROF AXIS WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
850 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND THE SURFACE TROF LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FINALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT COOLER ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS CLIMBED INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE COOLING. THE RIDGE ALOFT HAS BEEN THE REASON THE REGION HAS BEEN SO HOT AND DRY FOR THE LAST FOUR TO SIX WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW SITS ACROSS TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
736 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS ALG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW VA LIKELY TO FADE W/ LOSS OF HEATING LT THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
1135 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL RETROGRADE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW. TRENDED A TAD WARMER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THOUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
105 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 319 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/ Cold start this morning with temperatures near or just below freezing across portions of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
300 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS PROMOTING CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET HIT FREEZING IN A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 06-14Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE. PROMOTING EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST TO HAVE LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH TONIGHT. TIME ENOUGH FOR A BIT STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MID DOWN AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING.
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TODAY. THOUGH AM STILL ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND IF MIXING IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING ALOFT.
AND IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
312 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN BY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE MID STATE, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. WITH A RIDGE NOSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
247 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
850-700 MB TEMPS WRM AROUND 4 DEGREES C SO HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SURFACE RIDGING IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS.
Despite the light easterly winds, this cloud cover has helped keep surface temperatures in the low/mid 50s.
High pressure will remain in control through tonight. Look for inland morning lows in the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. Areas right at the coast will have lows in the lower 50s.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WARMER DAYS AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND BELOW THE WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 227 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 High pressure will move slowly east of the region tonight through Saturday.
Increased high temps a degree or two area wide as most locations have made it into the low 50s this morning which is a bit warmer than the going forecast. Places in the northern Bluegrass and southeast Indiana will likely see the highest gusts late this afternoon in the 25-35 mph range. Mixing should tap into winds around 30-35 knots, which will yield gusts in the 20-25 knot range, the highest along and north of I-64. Surface ridging will slide into the region which will allow winds to slacken. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s.
TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S SATURDAY AS WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AND MUCH WARM AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY MORNING.
1134 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE SHORT TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES BY IN THE MORNING PUTTING UPPER LAKES IN SW RETURN FLOW. NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT. A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST 12Z SUN WHICH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MON. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SPLITS INTO A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE TX/NM BORDER AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS PUSHES UP A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THEN WINDS DIMINISH BLO 25 KTS BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES.