Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another potential impact from the inversions, will be the possibility for freezing rain/drizzle as our storm system moves into the region today. However, enough warm air aloft will pose a threat for at least isolated pockets of freezing rain. Although much of the precipitation will have dissipated, we cannot rule out occasional snow showers and freezing drizzle.
736 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS BUT GENERALLY A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO TODAY IN TERMS OF AIR MASS MOISTURE. WARMER AND DRY THAN TODAY WITH INCREASED WINDS. COOLER BY THE LAKE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
The focus will then shift to the large upper-level trough building into the Intermountain West. Later in the period, as the upper low is expected to be closer to the region, temperatures may top out in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight, building cloud cover and light precipitation will develop ahead of a closed low to the southwest. This will linger through the remainder of the forecast period as the low center slowly moves north.
329 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2015 High pressure builds over northern California behind a low pressure system moving eastward across the Great Basin.
229 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TONIGHT. THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PRECLUDING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE WV/MD RIDGES.
133 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORK INTO THE REGION. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND AT 500 MB WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
439 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
255 PM PDT TUE APR 14 2015 GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PASSED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLIER.
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW MT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUT DECIDED AGAINST IT FOR NOW SINCE WE HAVE BEEN ON THE LOWER END OF CRITERIA AND ONLY AT A LIMITED NUMBER OF REPORTING LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
THE MDLS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTBY FOR SOME SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UT WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A BULLSEYE OF SUBSIDENCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTN.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AS NORTHERLLY WINDS ARE BRINGING COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT.
THE UPPER LOW HAS LIFTED NEWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) LATE THIS AFTN.
NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA WILL STILL BE W/IN SHEAR AXIS ZONE BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH CLOUD HAS BEEN ROBUST IN ITS ABILITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY. A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS THE THUMB WITH A LATE DAY INFLUENCE OFF THE LAKE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO EASTERLY. BOTTOM END OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE SPECTRUM FOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE VICNITY OF 30 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. RATHER AMPLIFIED 500 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
1134 AM PDT TUE APR 14 2015 Windy and cooler conditions will prevail today with scattered rain and snow showers. Drier and warmer weather is expected for the rest of the work week.
323 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NOTICEABLY COOLER. UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING SUPPORTING NO PCPN.
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE HIGH TO DRAW SOME DRIER AIR DOWN THE COLUMN. A TELECONNECTED WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL WILL CONTRIBUT TO THIS RELATIVE SHORT TERM DRY PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. AS THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE 100-120 KT JET CORE DIGGING A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE MID ROCKIES REGION.
TEMPERATURES IN THE URBAN AREAS SUCH AS MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THINGS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE PAC NW ON WEDNESDAY.
1000 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
307 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. AND POSSIBLY DOUBLE THAT OVER THE RIDGES AS DEVELOPING UPSLOPE INTENSIFIES THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
955 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION THE REX BLOCK IS FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWING THE LOW SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW AND STAGNATING OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN PUSHED FARTHER INLAND TODAY AS A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF NORTH PACIFIC ENERGY POOLS OFFSHORE.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AT 20Z AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS EVENING AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY TRIGGER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
1210 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO START TONIGHT.
1230 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. AND POSSIBLY DOUBLE THAT OVER THE RIDGES AS DEVELOPING UPSLOPE INTENSIFIES THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO ON SUNDAY. ALREADY FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER PLUMMET AFTER NIGHTFALL AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WIND DIMINISHES.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS NEAR KENTUCKY BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY A POTENT EMBEDDED VORT MAX RACES SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACTS WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS.
U/L RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. MEAN L/W TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH A CUT-OFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER BAJA CA. A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD THREATEN KCDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. DIFFUSE SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY DEEP W-SW FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 12,000 FEET. SUBSEQUENT LEE TROUGHING FROM SERN CO TO ERN NM BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SUBJECT OUR AREA TO A BREEZY SW GRADIENT FLOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE WARM TEMPS OF THE LAST LITTLE BIT WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT ONSLAUGHT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING, ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXTREME NORTHERN IOWA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS. PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIP TO FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR EVEN SOME SLEET.
1240 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO START TONIGHT.
1052 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS GUSTY AND TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. EVEN WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK NEAR LUNCHTIME SAT. AND END MAY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY. FREEZING DRIZZLE. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LAST MID WEEK. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ALONG WITH GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LINGER ON SAT OVER THE AREA THEN BUILD OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST WILL EXTEND BACK INTO SWRN CA FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE WEAK DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS POLAR COLD FRONTAL TIMING ON SATURDAY AND THEN CHANCES AND TYPE OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS FAST APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOSER TO -5C IS EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH EXPECT AN INCREASE OF LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SATURATION OCCURS ABOVE WIDESPREAD ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LATER ARRIVE OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS FAR SW SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BRING A WARMUP INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST AND LOWER 40S WEST.
1152 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SATURDAY DRAGGING ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
322 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
423 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN IN EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE SOLAR INSOLATION AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME SWLY ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 22Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BUT STILL THINK HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S EVEN IN THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW-LEVEL SATURATED LAYER A LITTLE DEEPER TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS POTENTIAL.
DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS PLACED THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER W ND/FAR NE MT AT 04Z. THE WEATHER WILL GET DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES DUE TO STRONG MIXING IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH THE AIR BEHIND IT ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THERE IS NOT ANY DOUBT IT WILL GET COOLER IN THE OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES.
255 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING BAJA CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE CURRENT ARCTIC PUSH WITH TEMPS IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
259 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY.
IN THE MEANTIME WITH A WEAK TROF ACROSS THE AREA AND SCATTERED CLOUDS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS INTO SW AR BY SAT EVE. AND KEEPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN CWA WARMER THAT OTHER MODELS.
317 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2015 Strong potential vorticity anomaly was rotating south-southeast into the Great Lakes early this morning with associated cold front into northeast Nebraska and central portions Iowa at 08Z. Somewhat slower frontal progression should allow for slightly warmer temperatures today, particularly in the south, though still not a high confidence forecast.
/ISSUED 143 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2015/ An upper ridge centered over the Western U. This low may bring some precipitation to the region as early as Sunday. The wind tonight will generally be light and variable but should come around to the south on Saturday as a new leeside trough develops. Models depict a strong cold front moving down across the Central Plains on Saturday and into the TX Panhandle early Sunday. Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday and continue into Sunday before the next front hits.
420 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN IN EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE ISLAND CHAIN RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE LOWER KEYS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN THE UPPER KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL TRANSITION EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHUNT A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODIFICATION WILL COMMENCE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE REINFORCED HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/ISSUED 930 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015/ A COOL EVENING WITH AREAWIDE INTERIOR TEMPERATURE READINGS FALLING ON THE LOW SIDE OF 55 F. A DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND A 7H NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS RIDGE WILL AID IN CLEARING PM SKIES AND. SUNDAY'S WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO CLOUDIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER (UPPER 60S/LOW 70S).
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A weak cold front will move through the region tonight bringing a chance of very light rain mainly to the mountains. Fog has also been expanding over portions of the lower Columbia Basin, near Walla Walla to the Tri Cities. As the night progresses into Saturday morning, the flow will turn southwesterly ahead of the approaching cold front. These factors and some low level moisture supports some stratus and patchy fog expanding into the upper Columbia Basin, Palouse (at least the lower Palouse) and perhaps the Spokane/C'dA area). Some outlying areas may see lows dropping below freezing. Normal lows this time of year are in the 20s, so even if we fall below freezing it would still be above normal for most.
313 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS LOOMING JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. AND AS A NEW RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE PAC COAST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND IN THE LONG VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY.
HIGH A STRONG 145 KNOT 250 MB UPPER JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BASE OF THE 850/700 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THE HIGH RES WRF-ARW AND WRF-IS FARTHER OUT OVER THE LAKE.
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARMER AIR ALOFT.
247 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN TODAY AS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST PUSHES INLAND.
FREEZING LEVEL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 3000 FEET. RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS BUT WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 22Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BUT STILL THINK HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S EVEN IN THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW-LEVEL SATURATED LAYER A LITTLE DEEPER TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
1138 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN LK SUPERIOR. THE MAIN UPPER LOW/STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY REGION. SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC RIDGE AXIS PLOWS IT/S WAY DOWN ACRS CENTRAL IA.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF. GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MAKING IT THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE GOING STATIONARY. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY.
352 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED THE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. THE HIGHS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS ALLOWS THE LIFT TO REACH THE LOWER PARTS OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TOWARD JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING APPROACHES WITH A DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST PROVIDING A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A cold front will move through during the morning hours, ending the rain. The WAA pattern in advance of the surface cold front should hold temperatures relatively steady in the low 60s overnight before beginning to fall in the few hours before sunrise as the cold front arrives.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THERE ALSO REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RECENTLY FIRING A LINE OF TSTORMS OVER AL-MS GRAZES OVER OUR ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE OVERNITE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL HAVE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RA/SHRA WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. BECOMING WNW WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY 18Z.
With this, thinking 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall may be possible tonight, with the highest amounts being across the northern third of the CWA, or where the warning is located at. Southeast counties may get a little warmer given the lack of snow down there. Precip type for all systems looks to be mainly snow, except for Wed afternoon in the southeast, where temps should warm enough above freezing that precip-type could be a mix of rain and snow or just rain all rain around Lawrenceville. Then a warming trend will be see for the rest of the week and into the weekend, with temps rising to above freezing over most of the area. As high pressure builds into the region, winds will decrease to less than 10kt and back to the W/SW by Monday afternoon.
/ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/ THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. BUT SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON.
CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE LED TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY MON MORNING. THE NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. KETCHAM THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THU BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS. KETCHAM MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
DON'T SEE THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE MTNS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.