Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ARE PROGGED TO RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 60S. TIMING THE MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GORGEOUS WEATHER TO MIDDLE TN. OCTOBER! THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BREAK DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH CAUSING ALL OF THE RAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A WARM FRONT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP SPEED AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ONLY A FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW AS FAR WEST AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
757 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
842 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BIT WARMER LAKESIDE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER LAKESIDE.
/ISSUED 726 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR EAST AS A WEAK SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
MILD LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
741 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD CENTER COURT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY MORNING BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AND GIVE OUR TAF SITES ACROSS EAST TEXAS A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AROUND LUNCH TIME. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ DEEP UPPER LOW OVER AZ NOTED IN THE WV THIS AFTN IN SHARP CONTRAST WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ IN PREPARATION FOR OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SEVERAL MONTHS. THE UPPER LOW IS FCST TO BEGIN TO OPEN AND PIVOT NEWD.
811 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TROUGH PASSAGE DRY ON THURSDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CLEAR EARLY TONIGHT UNDER UPPER RIDGE. WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WESTERN IDAHO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
845 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A RAPID CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE POISED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGING. WITH TEMPERATURES HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE.
A weak cold front will pass through the area tonight resulting in subtle cooling for Thursday but little chance of precipitation. These temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal for this time of year. A cold front continues to crawl across the Cascades with an abundance of mid and high level moisture streaming across the region. /sb 00Z TAFS: A cold front passing through the region will bring a solid deck of mid and high clouds with ceilings generally above 15K ft AGL.
726 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
638 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CHEYENNE WYOMING REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BEING WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.
HAVE RAISED OUR AREA'S RAIN CHANCES IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
953 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX PATTERN. CURRENT TEMPS WERE AGAIN TRENDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST EVENING. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
1019 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
1109 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
720 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS.
652 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 TONIGHT AND THURSDAYS WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY WATCHING THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
1045 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY IN RECENT HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH A DEEP CONVEYOR OF LIFT STRETCHING FROM CAPULIN/NM S-SW TO SONORA COINCIDENT WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE PER 00Z RAOB DATA. PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE NOCTURNAL STORMS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE IS WEAKENING/FILLING AS IT SPINS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 343 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL ALSO START AN INCREASING TREND TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER AND HIGHS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. 01 HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
1047 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING IS MAINTAINING A ROBUST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
1037 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AT THE COAST.
714 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
958 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM.
1007 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME SPOTS AS OBS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.
901 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A cold front is beginning to push into the northwest portion the forecast area with little fanfare, and do not expect this to change much for the rest of the night. Overnight low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
1047 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 TONIGHT AND THURSDAYS WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY WATCHING THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
642 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS TO THE EAST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS. LATE THURSDAY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.
739 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 DRY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT.
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN SHIELD OVER ARIZONA NEW MEXICO COLORADO TEXAS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BUMPED LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. CURRENT THINKING IS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA. MODERATE RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
750 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HELP PUSH MOISTURE AGAINST THAT TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL FORM BEHIND THE LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE SOUTH.
With high pressure parked over the Western Atlantic and extending into the Carolinas, easterly flow will continue overnight across the forecast area.
An approaching closed low presently over central AZ (the same storm system that gave us heavy rainfall almost two weeks ago!) will slowly progress east over the next 48-72 hours.
950 PM MST WED OCT 21 2015 A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AS MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND ONLY ALLOWED A SLOW UPWARD CREEP IN DEWPOINTS ELSEWHERE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL OPEN UP WITH THE MAIN PORTION OF ITS ENERGY LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THURSDAY INTO FRI. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
925 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO LOWER MIN T VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO AS MANY AS 7 DEGREES BASED OFF OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
1147 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A cold front is beginning to push into the northwest portion the forecast area with little fanfare, and do not expect this to change much for the rest of the night. Overnight low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
DESPITE THE COOLER DEW POINTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AND GIVE OUR TAF SITES ACROSS EAST TEXAS A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AROUND LUNCH TIME. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ DEEP UPPER LOW OVER AZ NOTED IN THE WV THIS AFTN IN SHARP CONTRAST WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ IN PREPARATION FOR OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SEVERAL MONTHS. THE UPPER LOW IS FCST TO BEGIN TO OPEN AND PIVOT NEWD.
/ISSUED AT 916 PM/ RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR EAST AS A WEAK SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
753 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RW HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL ALSO START AN INCREASING TREND TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER AND HIGHS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. 01 HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. WITH MOST READINGS IN NORTH DAKOTA HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S AND SEVERAL IN THIS CWA IN THE LOWER 30S. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PCPN WHICH COULD PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN. THE GFS ALSO SUPPORTS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE IS A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT. WILL ADD PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT.
BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND WARMER TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENSURE A DRY PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGES PASSES EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN.
249 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TO LABRADOR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S.
STILL A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAST WILL LOWER ATMOSPHERE COOL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION STARTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOUT 3000 FEET AGL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. GRAINGER AND HAMBLEN COUNTIES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE IT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF 850 MB LOW AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS MAY GET SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW THAN THE VALLEY. MUCH WARMER SOUTH OUTSIDE OF SNOW AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND WARMER TREND IS EXPECTED MOVING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION.
Warmer and drier for the rest of the week. Stubborn cloudiness persists over the region this afternoon as a low pressure system moves eastward generally over the I70 corridor. Surface counter-clockwise flow should help keep the low cloudiness over much of the region through the evening and into the overnight. A cold frontal boundary also pushed through this morning and has caused our surface winds to increase and veer northerly. Winds will begin to shift to a more southerly direction late Wednesday as high pressure moves east of the Ozarks into the southern Appalachians. Temperatures are going to warm well above average with much of the region hitting the lower 70s.
243 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 A highly amplified upper pattern remains in place across the lower 48 this afternoon. remaining in-between the western ridge and eastern U. trough. ridge east. not a whole lot to talk about as cold advection stratus will remain with us for a good part of the night before a weak warm front starts to lift through the area early Wednesday morning. expect winds to gradually shift to the southeast which should allow warmer air to work back into the region. tomorrow's afternoon highs will be noticeably warmer than today's.
1123 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016 HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS NOW KEEP MY EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SLIGHTLY SUB FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE FREEZING RAIN. THE LOW IS FOUND IN TWO CENTERS. OUR CWA HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE IN ILLINOIS OF A VERY NARROW RIDGE. AND SEASONAL DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
1124 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Putnam, Schuyler, Adair, and Macon Counties until noon for freezing rain and sleet. Conditions should improve through the mid-morning as temperatures rise above freezing and remaining precipitation clears out of the area. A shallow warm layer within the expected sub-freezing column will support the development of sleet initially.
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE HAS YET TO DEVELOP.
1112 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1101 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016/ A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NE ARKANSAS INTO NW MS. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED EAST AND NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN NORTHERN TOWARD THE NASHVILLE AREA. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS AROUND 00Z AT KMSL AND 02Z AT KHSV WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW.
NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NO ISSUES WITH WINDS EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
FORCING A COLD FRONT TO DO LIKEWISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECAST AERA WEDNESNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
At 12z Tuesday a 500mb trough was located over eastern Kansas and southwest Iowa. An upper level ridge axis extended from southern California to the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a cold front extend from western Missouri, across central and southern Oklahoma, to the panhandle of Texas. An area of high pressure at the surface was located over western Nebraska and northeast Colorado. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs ranging from the mid 50s around Hays to around 60 at Elkhart. An upper level ridge will move out of the western states over the Plains by Wednesday evening.
329 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) Weak cold front has pushed across most of West Central Texas this afternoon, leaving northeast winds in its wake. However, cold air drainage locations will see temperatures much cooler readings once again.
Clipper low digging well into the Mississippi Valley is on an otherwise favorable track for snow, but boundary-layer temps remain just enough above freezing to create a lot of precip-type issues. That said, we are seeing mostly a rain/snow mix over the Lower Ohio Valley so far, with just very slight slushy accumulations on elevated surfaces. Still a very marginal situation with temps at or just above freezing, so expect a half inch or less in most locations.
126 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IN THE HAVRE/LEWISTOWN AREA HAS PUSHED EAST.
1248 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN HAD BECOME MINIMAL IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE ALL BUT ERADICATED THERE. DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH.
401 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 A WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
931 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016 HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
249 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC ANALYSIS AT 16Z SHOWS COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER N TX.
UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WASHINGTON.