Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some places may see highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday with the clouds. The clouds clear tonight and prefrontal warming on Monday will bring the highs in the 70s in most areas.
Areas of frost will be likely across our TN counties (where a Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 AM), and a couple locations across Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin (TN) Counties may make a run at drop to the freezing mark early this morning. The good news is with a clear sky, we'll have ample sunshine and plenty of opportunities for warming up later today as temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 70s by this afternoon - an absolutely beautiful end to an autumn weekend.
106 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) The cold front is slowly oozing through Texas today and tomorrow and is forecast to be south of the CWA by Sunday evening.
Satellite imagery is beginning to show fog forming over bodies of water across the CWA, and many areas across central Kentucky are already seeing temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Under clear skies and slight warm air advection, temperatures will warm a few degrees warmer than yesterday, while remaining in the 60s for highs.
(Now through Monday) In the wake of a dry cold front, quiescent weather remains across the region through Monday. Elsewhere, it seems reasonable temperatures fall into the lower to middle 50's. Monday will be a tad warmer, reaching upper 70's inland and lower 80's nearer the coast.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure over the mid-MS Valley and an area of low pressure near Hudson Bay. A cold front extended from the low pressure west- southwest into northern MN. Visible satellite imagery indicated a band of mid clouds over northern WI with more clouds to the north near the cold front. The high pressure will slowly shift toward the TN Valley and allow for the cold front to drop south into the northern half of WI tonight. The coldest of the air mass to be to our east, thus temperatures will not be as cold as last night with readings to range from the lower 30s north-central WI, to the lower 40s along Lake MI. The cold front will complete its passage through the rest of northeast WI Sunday morning.
1133 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) The weak cold front from this morning has since moved offshore into the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, high pressure at 850mb will be firmly over E/SE Texas, keeping mostly clear skies and relatively quiet during the day. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures than that of today, though highs will still be in the 80s with a few inland locations looking to break 90 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will be relatively the same to that of the previous night, if not slightly cooler.
The upstream flow and warmer temps will continue to dig into the region for warmer temps Sunday into Monday. But after the frost this morning along with freezing temps(see 903 am issued low temp summary PNS), no frost headlines seem to be needed for rest of the season. The main impact may be just be a band of clouds along sfc trof/wind shift line especially acrs the northeastern half of the fcst area.
1201 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The quasi-stationary upper low that has been over the Sea of Cortez has begun to shift to the northeast, and by the end of the day Sunday it should be centered near the Mexican border south of Tucson. Deep moisture continues to stream northward ahead of the low and will continue to feed scattered shower activity across the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 60s before the front moves through. High pressure will bring pleasant conditions for Monday with highs similar to today and mostly sunny skies.
1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Northeasterly winds and drier air in the low-levels have moved into south central Texas behind a cold front. Afternoon highs are still on track to peak in the lower 80s to near 90 degrees.
Even warmer weather will be in store for Monday when highs climb well into the 70s. High pressure continues to dominate the weather across central Illinois early this morning, resulting in clear skies and light winds. As a result, some of the coldest temperatures in the lower 30s are currently noted across the SE CWA. After frosty early morning lows in the lower to middle 30s, ample sunshine and southwesterly winds will boost afternoon highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than recent nights with readings only dropping into the lower 40s.
Yet, due to the low atmospheric instability we have observed in the last couple of hours and guidance downward trends in POPs, have nudged POPs down for today and tonight (50%/20%). Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will pick at night time and lull during the day as a high pressure system builds in the Southeastern U. Also, a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all the Florida Keys, and boaters should allow more slack in spring and dock lines, and be mindful of less clearance under fixed bridge during high tide.
240 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 The ongoing Frost Advisory looks to be in good shape, with temperatures steadily falling into the lower to middle 30s. A few of the typical cold spots may even fall below a few degrees below freezing by daybreak. This will be caused by an H5 thermal ridge building over the region from the west.
1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Northeasterly winds and drier air in the low-levels have moved into south central Texas behind a cold front. Afternoon highs are still on track to peak in the lower 80s to near 90 degrees.
A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. The areas weather remains under the influence of an upper level low that was along the Intnl border SW of Tucson this morning.
A couple of locations may reach the freezing mark in our typically colder southern and eastern counties, but should be only briefly and no freeze warning is planned. Tonight looks several degrees warmer than this morning, although a bit of frost is possible once again in some of the colder spots.
and Monday A cold front over southern Canada, will track through the western Great Lakes this morning, turning surface winds to a north to northeasterly direction. Despite the passage of a cold front, there will not be a significant push of cold air behind the frontal boundary; therefore, high temperatures today are not expected to be all that different than yesterday. High pressure will then build over the western Great Lakes tonight, bringing mostly clear skies, light winds, and abundant radiational cooling to the area. The high will track east on Monday, as surface winds turn to a more southerly direction, allowing for return flow and modest warm air advection across Wisconsin.
1014 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 High pressure has moved over Wyoming today, bringing mostly sunny skies and relatively light winds with near normal temperatures. Certainly can't rule out a few areas again developing similar clouds/fog Sunday morning as the high pressure warms the mid levels and caps near surface moisture. Temperatures this morning came closer to flirting with freezing values east of the divide; but min temps Sunday morning should warm a couple of degrees due to the high pressure strengthening slightly over the forecast area.
The temperature forecast today, tonight and Monday continues to lean on the short term model blend for highs in the lower 70s today, lows in the 30s and lower 40s tonight, and highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Monday. The forecast highs today and Monday are slightly cooler than the guidance blend, but warmer than the 50th percentile of the NBM. The low temperature forecast tonight is warmer than both the guidance and the NBM 50th.
High pressure maintains dry conditions today, with cloud cover generally increasing across nrn zones this evening on the van of an approaching trough.
Most locations should stay at or above freezing overnight, with the more widespread impacts expected to come from frost. Temperatures early tomorrow should be several degrees warmer than this morning.
Pattern change with slightly cooler temperatures this week.
204 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure continues to build across the area tonight with a clear sky and dry air. For Tonight, dry northwest flow aloft and surface ridging will produce good radiational cooling conditions allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s over much of the area. For Sunday, surface ridging and dry airmass remains.
(Today through Monday Night) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through much of the short term. Thew high pressure currently over the state, will begin to slide east late in the period as a trough dives down from the north.
Monday will be even warmer with dry conditions and highs in the 70s to near 80 in a few places.
This anticyclone will continue to drift east of the region as upper level winds gradually turn more zonal through tomorrow while an amplified trough begins to dive into the western CONUS. These warm and dry winds will keep skies mostly clear and pull notably warmer temperatures into the region.
The best chance for rain showers will be this afternoon as some weak instability builds up with ample daytime heating and an upper-level impulse is ejected out of the main upper low.
Not much change in the forecast, the high pressure still resides over the region allowing for drier conditions, especially in northern counties.
Activity will once again increase later tonight as the upper low inches closer to the region. Southerly surface winds will also help to slightly moderate overnight lows with lows mostly in the low to upper 50s area wide.
Weak troughiness will dig into the Western High Plains tonight and gradually turn winds aloft to a more westerly direction. The lower level winds will respond by slowly turning to the southwest which will be the start of warmer weather for a couple of more days.
1233 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Made a slight adjustment to PoPs in an attempt to capture the high-res model trends overnight.
Water vapor satellite observations and RAP upper air analysis at 05Z Sunday indicate broad longwave troughing encompasses the entire CONUS, with much stronger upper level flow over the eastern CONUS owing to several vorticity maxima moving through the larger scale circulation. At the surface, high pressure is spread out across the central and southern plains eastward into the Midwest/Dixie Alley, resulting in light winds and mostly clear skies over southwest KS. Daytime Sunday, temperatures will rebound quite rapidly, as clear skies and 850-mb temperatures warming by 5-7C result in a much warmer day than yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lee troughing will develop in eastern CO/WY in response, allowing southerly winds to resume across the central plains and a continuation of the warming trend with highs in the upper 70s/near 80 on Monday.
Afternoon high temps through Sunday ranging from the low to mid 80s, with the coolest values to the northeast and warmest to the south and west where some upper 80s are not out of the question.
Water vapor satellite observations and RAP upper air analysis at 05Z Sunday indicate broad longwave troughing encompasses the entire CONUS, with much stronger upper level flow over the eastern CONUS owing to several vorticity maxima moving through the larger scale circulation. At the surface, high pressure is spread out across the central and southern plains eastward into the Midwest/Dixie Alley, resulting in light winds and mostly clear skies over southwest KS. Daytime Sunday, temperatures will rebound quite rapidly, as clear skies and 850-mb temperatures warming by 5-7C result in a much warmer day than yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
1143 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 A cold front sinking southward across Lake Superior tonight in combination with strong high pressure across the southern Ohio and mid Mississippi Valley region will increase the low level westerly gradient across Se Mi. While the cold front will approach Se Mi front the north during the afternoon, ample dry air will remain over Se Mi.
Showers associated with this low will remain well east of our area. The expectation is for the low and attendant front to slowly sink south overnight and into Sunday morning. No precipitation is expected with the front with dry low and mid levels, but high level cloud cover will start increasing early in the morning, and temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler than today, with highs in the 60s. These are in cyclonic flow from a low pressure system near Hudson Bay. Sunday temperatures will only reach into the low to mid 60s with light and variable winds.
Going into Sunday, southerly flow sets up once again with a lee-side trough developing over eastern Colorado and high pressure east. This will allow for a warmup to occur lasting towards midweek before a cold front arrives. even warmer on Monday with mid 70s west up to the lower 80s in spots in the east.
South of I-10, cloud cover will be minimal so we'll see temperatures drop into the low 60s this time around. This induces southwesterly flow aloft and slightly warmer temperatures for Monday (+ 1-2Â°F compared to today). This also leads to slightly warmer low temperatures for Monday night (by about 1-2Â°F).
1120 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Latest upper level analysis has northwest flow across the Northern Plains, with ridging off to the west.
341 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (Today through Monday) Much of the southeast remains situated at the southern periphery of a mid-level trough, placing us in a region of quasi-zonal flow aloft.
(Today through Monday) Cool temperatures in place today with plenty of sun as high pressure builds in. A few spots may reach the upper 30s, but on a whole the area will be 1 to 2 degrees warmer.
Meanwhile, stationary closed 500 mb low pressure spinning over extreme northwest Mexico will weaken into a mid- level trough as it moves into the Desert Southwest.
Otherwise, warmer weather expected today with scattered mid/high clouds as weak upper level impulse begins to slide east of the area.
1157 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the region. Satellite imagery shows the high gradually making its way southeastward across the area. Kirksville dipped to 28F with STJ taking the lowest observed temperature of our ASOS sites at 26F; however, it is important to note that the STJ ASOS is about as low into the the MO River valley as you can go, so it is likely the residents of St. Joseph were slightly warmer. Tonight, low temperatures are expected to be relatively warmer, around 40F, alleviating frost/freeze concerns. As the high migrates across the area today, winds turn more southerly pushing warmer air into the region.
1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Monday) Large areas of upper low pressure are located over southeast Canada and northwest Mexico with a large ridge just off the California coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s and in the lower to mid 50s Sunday night.
340 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Broad upper level troughing across eastern North America will be reinforced today/tonight locally as a dampening upper level jet packet and as many as two absolute vorticity impulses dig through the Great Lakes.
Weak northerly flow will stay in place today, along with the high pressure. Light winds and sunny skies will allow temperatures to once again climb into the 70's over the low valleys and 60's elsewhere. A subtle pattern shift takes place Monday night as a strong jet streak noses into the Idaho panhandle on the backside of a Canadian trough. Deterministic models are fairly allied at this point and drag the trough axis across the upper plains, while northwest Colorado gets glanced by the right exit region of the jet streak digging into the backside of the trough.
Otherwise temperatures should reach the low to mid 60s today. With high pressure pushing tonight expect quiet and clear conditions Monday. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 60s before the front moves through. High pressure will bring pleasant conditions for Monday with highs similar to today and mostly sunny skies.
930 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure and a cool, dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the rest of the weekend.
The presence of the high will reduce somewhat noticeable cold air advection which occurred yesterday. With slightly warmer heights and generally sunny skies, highs across the region should warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s with northerly winds 5-10 mph.
Across the western CONUS, large-scale mid/upper ridging is in place leaving the forecast area in a transition zone from the warmer conditions out west and cooler conditions to the east.
On Monday it will be a few degrees warmer, but also windy over North Central MT.
Cloud cover and the light precipitation will keep temperatures down across central and western Oklahoma, with highs in those areas reaching the mid 70s while the highs elsewhere are in the upper 70s/low 80s.
621 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (Today through Monday Night) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through much of the short term. Thew high pressure currently over the state, will begin to slide east late in the period as a trough dives down from the north.
High pressure will continue to keep our rain chances at bay in the northern counties today.
With the axis of the upper ridge centered offshore an upper trough is moving down the back side of the ridge through eastern Oregon this morning.
(Now through Monday) Beautiful weather expected through the near term in the wake of a cold front. At the surface, high pressure settles in over the region allowing dry and cool air to continue to filter in. Waking up this morning, temperatures will be cooler across the area, with mainly mid to upper 40s for areas north of Highway 84, and low to mid 50s south (mid to upper 50s near the immediate coast). On Monday, expecting a temps to be a couple degrees warmer, with mainly upper 70s to low 80s northwest of I-65, and more mid 80s southeast (some areas in the low 80s).
A weak cold front will approach from the north today and lead to increasing cloud cover late this afternoon into the evening. This low level dry air will also limit precipitation chances, but there will be a low chance for sprinkles or light rain showers to develop mainly this evening. Broad upper level troughing across eastern North America will be reinforced today/tonight locally as a dampening upper level jet packet and as many as two absolute vorticity impulses dig through the Great Lakes.
(Today through Monday) Much of the southeast remains situated at the southern periphery of a mid-level trough, placing us in a region of quasi-zonal flow aloft.
The forecast is on track for highs in the 60s and 70s, with the west being warmer.
841 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will provide cool and mainly dry conditions through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will fizzle out as it drops in from the north later tonight and Monday.
The high peaks of the Snake Range may observe a brief afternoon shower.
Otherwise, warmer than average temperatures along with dry conditions and benign winds will persist through the week. A slight chance of showers (10-20%) will exist this afternoon across the high eastern Sierra. Slightly cooler temperatures will arrive by mid-week but simulations have trended up slightly, so don't expect a significant difference from day to day. Isolated showers (5-10%) could form just about anywhere Sunday as the system passes overhead, but the greatest chances will generally be across the high eastern Sierra (15-20%).
330 AM MDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the West Coast, with a trough over the Eastern CONUS. Today temperatures will be warmer than yesterday as WAA continues with the approaching ridge to the west. Winds will be light through the day due to the approaching ridge. Tonight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to the continued WAA. Winds will be breezy as an upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area. Due to the dry environment am not even expecting any cloud cover to occur as the short wave trough moves through. Lows will be warmer than tonight ahead of the incoming cold front.
A squashed mean layer ridge stretches west across the Bahamas and South Florida. The KBYX radar detects scattered showers and a few thunderstorms spreading west within enhanced moisture associated with a weak inverted trough in the easterlies. As the day progresses, the Keys will transition to the back side of the trough axis, with drier air filtering into the Keys this evening. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all the Florida Keys, and boaters should allow more slack in spring and dock lines, and be mindful of less clearance under fixed bridge during high tide.
Winds behind the low turning to the north and look for a north wind today behind this system briefly gusting 20-25 kts right behind the low early on this pre- dawn, but for the daytime in the 10-20 mph range.
An upper ridge over the region will give way to a cold front Monday afternoon and evening. The upper ridge will rebuild over the region for the second half of the week.
734 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Not much change in the forecast, the high pressure still resides over the region allowing for drier conditions, especially in northern counties.
The upper level ridge remains in place over the west coast this morning. A trough is moving down the east side of the and is currently over Oregon and Washington and moves over NW California today. Today this is bringing some weak offshore flow and slightly cooler temperatures aloft, although still well above seasonal normals with highs around 90. The ridge is keeping the marine layer very shallow, only around 1,000 to 1,500 feet.
The ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the region. An approaching low pressure system will flatten the ridge on Monday and allow for an increase in westerly winds.
The ongoing Frost Advisory looks to be in good shape, with temperatures steadily falling into the lower to middle 30s. A few of the typical cold spots may even fall below a few degrees below freezing by daybreak. This will be caused by an H5 thermal ridge building over the region from the west.
For tonight, dry northwest flow and surface ridging will produce a clear night. For Monday, ridging surface and developing aloft will produce another sunny day.
Clear skies and dry air advecting into the region will continue into the overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the low 50's within the northern areas of our forecast area, and gradually creeping closer to the mid 50's near the gulf coast. Highs will be in the low 80's within the northernmost regions of our forecast area, and increasing to the mid 80's toward the gulf coast and the Big Bend region.
Highs on Monday range from the upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s over much of the remaining portion.
1226 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (Today through Monday Night) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through much of the short term. Thew high pressure currently over the state, will begin to slide east late in the period as a trough dives down from the north.
An upper level low is currently over southern Arizona which will affect the weather going into late Monday. Tonight winds should remain light and variable with an area of high pressure over the central plains. Models are trending on holding off the rain chances until close to sunset along the Oklahoma border so kept the highest chances of rain moreso into Monday night and in our southeast zones.
132 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Mid-level cloud cover ahead of a cold front has filled in across KMBS and will continue to fill in south in the vicinity of KFNT through the later afternoon hours. Broad upper level troughing across eastern North America will be reinforced today/tonight locally as a dampening upper level jet packet and as many as two absolute vorticity impulses dig through the Great Lakes.