Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm front has lifted to about Highway 30 with a nice low level moisture feed of PWAT's near 2 inches. The main upper level trough was located in the Northern Plains and into Colorado with a series of impulses moving through the Midwest in the southwest flow aloft. However, on the nose of the low level jet and stronger impulse in southern MN and northern IA there have been thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Saturday: The main upper level trough/strong dynamics arrive with the models indicating the trough going negatively tilted. This should enhance the forcing as the cold front pushes across the cwa, and low pressure tracks into WI.
An upper trough Saturday will keep the area cloudy with showers.
1156 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 06Z TAF issuance A cold front was moving south across the TX Panhandle this evening with winds becoming north behind the boundary. Storms are developing along a prefrontal trough across the northern Permian Basin now. The cold front will arrive over the next few hours with brief gusty winds.
755 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front extending from Western New York, to near Altoona and Baltimore this evening will lift slowly to the north as a warm front late tonight bringing another late taste of summer-like weather for us on Saturday.
1046 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Per NHC tropical cyclone update, Nate becomes a hurricane.
Better chance for thunderstorms will occur later tonight as a cold front currently over the Central Plains moves into western Missouri. There may be some additional development of additional showers and thunderstorms along the cold front during the afternoon. Temperatures will stay above normal through tomorrow with the cold front not expected to move through the CWA until the afternoon hours. A cold front over southwestern Illinois will continue to push out of the region Saturday evening.
1005 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 The cross state pressure gradient continues to relax this evening now that the upper trough has passes and the mtn top inversion has weakened. However, westerly winds continue to gust in the 30-45 mph range on ridgetops and east face of the Front Range, and in the 15-30 mph range in portions of the I-25 urban corridor. Otherwise the showers and t-storms on the plains earlier this afternoon have long since moved out with the trough axis. Although there may still be a few light snow showers lingering overnight over the higher ridges and peaks of the Front Range mountains. Subsidence behind the exiting upper level trough will bring stable and dry air to the area.
The trough will spread east tonight sending a cold front through the area tonight and Saturday.
High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to push to the east later tonight into tomorrow as a trough moves across the Central Plains. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 80 70 77 / 10 40 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 83 68 77 / 0 30 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 69 77 / 0 30 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 84 65 76 / 0 20 80 90.
927 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A cold front will push across the region tonight. Much cooler weather will then persist through the weekend, with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers.
Therefore have the highest PoPs in the east/southeast part of the area, but there should be a few across the area.
541 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Apart from some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms focused along the Continental Divide this afternoon, generally benign conditions have been experienced across the region as drier air works in behind a departing upper level trough.
730 PM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017 High pressure centered north of Bermuda extends west into the central and southern Appalachians. This high will be weakening as it lingers through the weekend.
Tropical Cyclone Nate will be moving NNW across central Gulf of Mexico with moist low level SE to SSE flow in place and high PWATs ~2. Insolation is expected to be limited some by the extensive CI/CS canopy emanating from nate's upper level anticyclone. Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect thru Saturday afternoon due to elevated water levels along the intracoastal waterway and Atlantic surf zone during the high astronomical tides.
A progressive mid/upper level trough and an attendant surface cold front are over the middle of the CONUS. On Saturday and Saturday night an upper level ridge will build off the southeast coast as the upper trough presses in against it, and the tropical system makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast.
1018 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east of the region on Saturday.
654 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 High pressure continues over the area with a cold front stretching through the plains.
High pressure was over the Northland this morning, with cool, clear, dry conditions. A long-wave trough will move through the Northland Saturday. Highs will be in the lower to middle 60s. A few showers will linger into Saturday evening for eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin, as the low pressure system and upper level trough move off to the north and east.
In the absence of the lower clouds and convection, high temperatures may reach the upper 80s, especially across southeast Missouri. A few storms may occasionally show rotation and with the strong winds in the low- levels, a few stronger wind gusts may reach the surface, mainly in southwest Indiana.
Cold front across Western Kansas will drop rapidly south overnight and move into the area before morning. An associated cold front will move south across the area late tonight and Saturday morning. Best lift associated with the upper trough will largely remain north of the forecast area but will clip the Big Country overnight. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
918 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front extends from north central Kansas, across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and into southeastern New Mexico. Even though only weak instability is expected, wind fields as well as wind shear should strengthen as a short wave trough translates across the Central Plains just to our north. Convection will gradually end from northwest to east Saturday morning, with clearing expected Saturday afternoon behind the exiting short wave trough.
There may be light precipitation wrapping around the low during the daytime hours Saturday, but the southern extent of this precipitation should reside around and north of Highway 36.
526 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Upper level analysis shows a trough crossing the Rockies. Showers will move out of the CWA this evening as the trough crosses the northern plains. Warm air advection will continue Saturday under weak upper ridging, with highs reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s. A strong cold front will begin passing through the CWA in the afternoon ahead of a broad upper-level trough.
/Issued 918 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017/ Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front extends from north central Kansas, across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and into southeastern New Mexico. Even though only weak instability is expected, wind fields as well as wind shear should strengthen as a short wave trough translates across the Central Plains just to our north. Convection will gradually end from northwest to east Saturday morning, with clearing expected Saturday afternoon behind the exiting short wave trough.
619 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 The low to mid level boundary that has produced showers and thunderstorms this morning has pushed south of the area. Will expect additional rainfall amounts of a half an inch to an inch as the low level jet briefly backs in central Nebraska and south central SD before veering to the southwest and taking the higher chances to the south and east of the area. In central SD some fog will be possible where clouds clear as winds will be light and the low levels are fairly moist.
/issued 302 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017/ A sharp upper level trough currently over the Rockies will emerge onto the Plains this evening but not before creating some severe weather chances across West Texas. Most of the upper level divergence from this trough will be concentrated to the north of the region from the Texas Panhandle into southwestern Kansas. Low level convergence will rapidly increase as the cold front enters West Texas during the evening. In the meantime, low level theta-e will continue to increase out ahead of the cold front/dryline. Furthermore, deep layer shear will continue to increase with the approach of the upper level trough.
The upper level ridge axis will push to the east overnight with southerly to southwesterly flow returning.
The southeasterly flow will continue to stream in moisture, warmer air and cloud cover in ahead of Tropical Storm Nate. Despite this moisture, high temperatures should warm into the low/mid 80s.
827 PM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017 Bermuda High pressure will be weakening tonight and Saturday.
An associated warm front now stretching from near Waterloo, IA southeast to near Kankakee, IL will lift north through southern Wisconsin overnight. However, as the low pressure system pushes in Saturday morning, IFR and MVFR cigs will overspread the area from west to east. As the low lifts north of the area later Saturday afternoon, look for VFR conditions to once again return on drier westerly winds. An upper trough will dig through the Northern and Great Plains tonight and through the Midwest on Saturday. The cold front/westerly winds behind this trough will not get through southern WI until Saturday evening. Saturday morning, the whole trough will slide eastward through WI.
1023 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front extending from Western New York, to near Altoona and Baltimore this evening will lift slowly to the north as a warm front late tonight bringing another late taste of summer-like weather for us on Saturday.
Otherwise, will also be watching a weak cold front approaching from the Plains with little if any fanfare. /issued 231 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017/ Upper ridge influence which has been prevalent over the last several days is quickly coming to an end as our region becomes squeezed between an approaching upper trof/cold front from the nw and TS Nate from the se.
Today has been rather warm, with highs rising into the low/mid 80s, or a good 4-8 degrees above average. As such, increasing clouds and moisture levels during the late night will result in warmer overnight lows falling into low/mid 60s, a good 5-10 degrees above what they were this morning (which were close to seasonable norms). Despite this moisture, high temperatures should warm into the low/mid 80s.
1131 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east of the region on Saturday.
810 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Convection has diminished this evening, though some hints at overnight development continue to appear in the high resolution guidance.
Warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies will continue through Saturday morning with high pressure over the area. Next upper level trough, along the west coast of Canada this evening, will continue southward on Saturday bringing a cold front through the forecast area Saturday evening. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler Saturday from today.
1139 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front extending from Western New York, to near Altoona and Baltimore this evening will lift slowly to the north as a warm front late tonight bringing another late taste of summer-like weather for us on Saturday.
After the storms move off to the east into eastern Wisconsin by noon, the question is new development as a cold front sweeps across the state during the afternoon.
1216 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure will track across southern Ohio today with high pressure losing its grip on northern OH/northwest PA. A more significant cold front will move southeast across the area Friday evening. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley for the weekend. Attention turns though to midwest cold front that is progged to cross the area Friday evening/Friday night. Will go on the milder side of guidance, some of which may be impacted by abundance of convection/convective feedback reserving highs upwards of 10 degrees cooler. Cold front will cross the region Friday night with thunderstorms ending from west to east.
/issued 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: East to southeasterly wind flow continues across the region as high pressure over Atlantic dominates weather pattern. A mid level trough will also be moving into the southeast US. The trough combined with an increase in moisture will increase rain chances this weekend.
Chances will increase Sat & Sat Night after a weak surface trof has dropped south across KS. Although the 850mb pattern is weak the positioning the high over the Lower MS Valley & the low over CO would inject sufficient moisture E/NE across KS to 'spark' thunderstorms. The heat will be turned up again as broad lower-deck troffing induces southwest flow to spread across KS.
/Issued 303 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ The center of the upper level high will build across Colorado today into Friday. By Friday night, the upper level high is expected to be back across the Great Basin.
A cold front late Friday will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. The surface wave over Ohio will be driven southward, then eastward tonight as the upper level trough swings through. By Friday morning, the upper level trough will move into Central Pennsylvania, in turn pushing the surface wave toward Eastern Maryland. The lull will be short lived as a cold front will move toward the area late Friday, crossing Friday night.
A strong upper level high pressure system will remain over the Southwest U. An upper level trough over the northeast Pacific will slowly migrate eastward into Western Washington Friday through the weekend as it weakens.
Similar to the past couple of days, the greatest focus for convection is expected to be along the sea breeze with the highest PoPs (40-50%) across the eastern panhandle and big bend. Given the high instability expected this afternoon and some mid level dry air remaining, one or two storms may become strong to locally severe briefly, but nothing out of the ordinary is expected for this time of year. A cold front will push into the mid-South today while high pressure continues to dominate across the CWA. Highs will climb into the mid 90s today with a few places reaching the high 90s. Heat indices will be in the low to mid 100s.
614 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A large upper level ridge extends across the entire western half of the US with our forecast area under northwesterly flow. Today is still looking hot and humid ahead of an approaching cold front. This should send heat indices into the lower 100s this afternoon. The above mentioned cold front will slowly drift south through the CWA throughout the day, landing south of the forecast area by 06z tonight.
Cloud cover should limit heating once again, so afternoon highs should stay in the lower to mid 90s today. An upper ridge over the southwestern US is shifting a little closer, with upper flow over west central Texas transitioning to more northeasterly flow by the evening.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough axis stretches from the Great Lakes Region back through portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains. The aforementioned longwave upper level trough axis will gradually begin to shift southeast into the Lower Mississippi today into tonight. Lift associated with this trough combined with surface based instability increasing at or above 3000 J/kg and relatively weak shear aloft suggests potential for a few strong to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm today and into this evening, especially during peak daytime heating. Short term models indicate this upper level trough axis will shift southeast on Friday with shower and thunderstorm chances shifting to areas mostly south of I-40.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to be possible along and ahead of the H50 trof, where sfc dew points continue to hover from near 70 to the lower 70s. Should get a break in the precip chances tonight into Friday before a cold front approaches late in the day and during the evening. Once the front passes to our south Friday night, high pressure dropping southeast out of Canada should bring a dry and less humid start to the upcoming weekend.
An area of low pressure in central ND will progress e-se through the morning hours.
A cooler and less humid day is expected today. For today, NAM12 shows a few weak H5 short wave troughs riding the mean H5 ridge through Montana and into Wyoming. Cooler behind the cold front with highs today mainly in the 80s with a few lower 90s possible southwest.
Warmer than normal weather will continue for the next several days.
Quick moving short wave and cold front will move into northeast Mo late tonight. The attendant cold front will move through Missouri and Illinois during the daytime. There will still be enough ascent on the tail end of the the mid-level trough and moisture convergence along the cold front to produce scattered thunderstorms on Friday afternoon over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Ridge axis will remain near central Florida, with southeast-south winds in the early morning and overnight hours becoming onshore in the afternoon due to the development and inland movement of the sea breeze.
For today, NAM12 shows a few weak H5 short wave troughs riding the mean H5 ridge through Montana and into Wyoming. Cooler behind the cold front with highs today mainly in the 80s with a few lower 90s possible southwest.
So far this morning, seeing some areas cooler than yesterday and some areas warmer than yesterday at this time.
1030 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania late today and tonight.
Temperatures this morning ranged from the mid 50s in the north to the lower 70s in the Brainerd Lakes area. Precipitation should gradually end from west to east overnight, but a secondary cold front dropping southward on Friday will bring a small chance of thunderstorms to the southern CWA in the afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 88 72 / 60 60 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 71 86 69 / 60 70 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 85 71 86 71 / 60 70 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 68 85 67 / 60 70 20 40.
A cold front late Friday will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. Current area of weak convection is confined along a boundary draped across the ridges. The surface wave over Ohio will be driven southward, then eastward tonight as the upper level trough swings through. By Friday morning, the upper level trough will move into Central Pennsylvania, in turn pushing the surface wave toward Eastern Maryland. The lull will be short lived as a cold front will move toward the area late Friday, crossing Friday night.
The low temperature so far today in Key West is 84 degrees.
Low pressure and an associated front will stay across Indiana into Friday, when a cold front is forecast to pass from the northwest. High pressure should arrive over Indiana from the west Friday night.
740 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to eject upper level disturbances across the forecast area through Friday with an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture riding along the ridge will combine with instability related to daytime heating. This will result in a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain. An upper level high will remain centered over the Four Corners through Friday.
607 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A mid and upper level trough axis will swing southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley today. As this happens, model cross- sections indicate increasing convergence in the lower portions of the atmosphere starting early this morning.
/Issued 317 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ Low progression open trough to the NW is progged to get some assistance from some longwave energy entering into the midwest today as it comes more into phase to shift the axis farther SE tonight into Friday. Temps today for most locations in the upper 80s north to mid 90s SE coupled with uncomfortable dewpoints in the low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices of upper 90s to low 100s. Slightly cooler temps expected Friday with frontal system and associated cloud coverage influence.
Ahead of the trough axis, plenty of shower and storm activity is ongoing in Middle Tennessee. A large upper ridge will be located over the Four Corners region with a large Ontario upper trough deepening on Friday.
1212 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania late today and tonight.
the low and mid level thermal profiles are prog to decrease slightly this morning which (when combined with diurnal warming and a slight uptick in moisture depth) should result in at least a low end scattering of shower activity today across the Coastal Plains and Victoria area. deeper moisture is prog to approach the coast from the east as a weakening inverted mid level trough approaches the area.
737 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania late today and tonight.
Deep layer ridging will weaken and shift southward today as an upper trough moves into the Tennessee Valley today. However, most areas will still remain dry and hot with highs in the lower 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
The latest surface map features broad low pressure across Missouri, with a weak surface boundary branched out into the Ohio Valley. Aloft, a gradually dampening upper level low is stacked in Missouri, with a short wave trough lifting through north central Kentucky. The latest model guidance still supports numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms culminating across eastern Kentucky this afternoon into this evening, as the midwest upper low and associated trough axis draw closer. Most of the day looks to remain dry, before a more defined cold front approaches from the northwest late. A cold front will be dropping southward at the start of the period, bringing some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to the area Friday evening.
Still expect drier air to filter in behind this trough and lead to an elevated fire danger. An area of low pressure in central ND will progress e-se through the morning hours.
The upper level setup over northeast Kansas was gradually transitioning into a northwesterly flow pattern as a strong ridge builds over the western CONUS and the upper low that had lingered over the area for the last few days is finally departing. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure was analyzed over eastern Kansas and resulting in localized fog in river valleys east of Manhattan.
This will bring some patchy dense fog and drizzle early this morning with much less inland penetration of the low clouds and fog. Expect the marine layer to remain shallow again tonight as a nearly 600 dm ridge over the four corners region nudges westward. Main impacts here will be fire weather related with poor humidity recovery in the hills along with breezy ridgetop winds. With a shallow marine layer along the coast under a strong ridge the beaches will likely remain cloudy/foggy with highs in the upper 50s for places like Pt Reyes and Ocean Beach.
This morning, a deep layer high pressure dome across the southwest U. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints around 70 degrees will support heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at times. Given the high degree of instability, sufficient deep- layer shear, and the focus of the frontal boundary, severe weather will be expected across eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin.
Few-sct040-050 cumulus expected today with showers and tstorms likely for the evening hours as a cold front approaches.
But outside these shady or rain areas, temperatures will be in the 90s for the most part and heat index readings will be in the low 100s for some.