Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure building into the region Tuesday night will bring chilly temperatures into the CWA. Strong mid level ridging will continue across much of the southern conus, with troffing over eastern Canada and a near cutoff mid level low over the west central US.
Highs may struggle into the lower 50s across the northwest which has been consistently signaled in the NBM through its 10 UTC iteration. Vertical profiles would support a mix with snow over the higher terrain of the southwest part of the state. For Tuesday with the H5 low / trough overhead temperatures will be slow to rise and mid 40s (20 degrees below normal) should do it west, with pockets of light rain area wide.
128 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Aviation Above normal temperatures return for Today and Tuesday as south flow pumps warmer air into the region.
245 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through into the weekend. As of 205 PM EDT: A highly amplified western trough/eastern ridge pattern will remain in place through Tuesday, with 500 mb heights rising to around 594 dm across the southeast through the period.
310 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Wind gusts will diminish after sunset, however the sustained winds will likely remain near 10kts overnight due to the tight pressure gradient ahead of a low pressure system. Low-level moisture streaming into the region around the edge of a sprawling high pressure center will bring increased cloudiness to the area tonight and tomorrow. Although the high temperature forecast for tomorrow was decreased by a few degrees based on the expected cloud cover and scattered precipitation, expected highs in the low 80s will still be 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky The upper level pattern will flatten by the middle of the week, causing the cold front to become quasi-stationary over the region.
152 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
This has helped temperatures jump into the lower and middle 80s (the first time Lubbock has eclipsed 80 degrees since September 23rd). Tuesday will be a bit of a transition day as deeper layer moisture advects through Central Texas around the western periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southeastern states.
Ahead of this low, light rain is possible across the southeast. As the low pushes into northwest North Dakota wrap around moisture will enter the west. The low will quickly shift off to the east and a dry slot will keep most of central North Dakota dry through the day Tuesday.
203 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain over central North Carolina through mid week. Low level thickness and current dwpts suggest lows tonight in the lower 50s, perhaps mid 50s in our s/se zones. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue over the area through this part of the forecast.
However, much of the period still looks dry as high pressure remains in control. An upper level ridge situated from the eastern Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley and Gulf of Mexico is forecast to retrograde into the Deep South by mid week. Southerly flow on the back side of this high will maintain warmer than normal temperatures through the period.
A southeasterly flow will make for warmer temperatures tonight, with lows running a good 3-5 degrees what they were yesterday - cooling into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
119 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through into the weekend. As of 105 PM EDT: A highly amplified western trough/eastern ridge pattern will remain in place through the near-term period, with 500 mb heights rising to around 594 dm tonight through Tuesday across the southeast. As of 215 AM EDT Monday: The weather continues to look dry with slightly above normal temps through mid-week courtesy of high pressure. The large upper anticyclone over the eastern United States will gradually morph through the period, getting stretched more SW-to-NE on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the center of the anticyclone retrogrades across the lower MS River basin and Srn Plains while an upper trof moves across the Nrn Plains and upper Gt Lakes.
347 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Potent upper level trough centered across the central Rockies will once again influence the weather across the central plains tonight. After midnight the low level jet begins to veer southwest with the heavier rain potential shifting east and most of the precipitation ending by 2:00 or 3:00 AM CDT. A cold front will cross the area late tonight, which will shunt much of the low level moisture east of the area.
Onshore breezy conditions will continue into tonight as the onshore gradient conditions fully develop as high pressure builds south along the Mid-Atlc coastline. Large high pressure area along the eastern seaboard will produce a tight pressure gradient and gusty northeast-east winds across east central Florida. Anticipated drying behind mid- upper trough to our northeast, becoming entrained in the onshore flow, and PoPs should gradually taper off through Wed. The highest values will be across the south on Tue, around 60 percent, otherwise values look to be in the 33-50 percent range.
331 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure over eastern Canada will slowly work its way down to the Mid-Atlantic through the middle of the week, and then will anchor itself offshore for the end of the week.
238 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Southwest flow aloft continues across the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon in between ridging across the southeast US and troughing over the northern Rockies.
/issued 357 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Broad upper level trough across the western half of the US remain blocked by ridging to the east. Underneath this ridge lies the next inverted trough/TUTT drifting westward just off the Yucatan Peninsula. While South Texas remains more dominated by the ridge today, the ample moisture and llvl forcing along the seabreeze will bring the case for scattered showers with isolated embedded thunder during the day. Daytime heating will still have ample time to jump today, so have kept forecast highs in the lower 90s areawide. Aloft, the trough rotates westward underneath the eastern ridge, bringing more instability to the region.
Cooler weather and the potential for rain showers will return by the weekend as a trough drops south out of British Columbia.
The highest amounts that may exceed an inch will be just southeast of the forecast area. Upper level low pressure system over western ND with an upper jet on the south side will shift into eastern Canada by 12Z Thu. Long wave trough over the western US lifts out around FRI. Long wave trough becomes established over eastern Canada and the Northern Plains by the end of the period. Low amplitude pattern develops with trough over the central US and low amplitude ridge over the west coast.
The combination of an inverted low-level trough, and a cold front retrograding through the forecast area overnight into Tuesday morning, will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Skies will gradually clear from east to west across the CWA through the course of the day Tuesday, as high pressure to the northeast builds into the region.
220 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain over central North Carolina through late week. Low level thickness and current dwpts suggest lows tonight in the lower 50s, perhaps mid 50s in our s/se zones. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue over the area through this part of the forecast.
1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 The line of thunderstorms that developed along the cold front has diminished early this morning and the front has stalled out over south central Nebraska/north central Kansas.
335 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure remains offshore through late week as a series of cold fronts move from northwest to southeast across the region. The offshore high pressure briefly builds northwestward by early weekend, before shifting back eastward again in advance of separate low pressure areas approaching from the west and south.
304 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Amplified pattern remains in place with large scale upper trough over the western US, and southwest flow over the Central High Plains.
The low level jet will increase tonight with 850mb winds of about 50 knots from the SSW. Around 1,000 j/kg of MU CAPE in the warm sector east of the front will be co-located with large scale ascent given the low level convergence enhanced by the LLJ, strong theta-e advection, and upper level support indicated by large differential divergence values owing to the coupled jet structure over the Dakotas. The cold front responsible for the heavy rain will shift off to the east by Tuesday evening, along a line roughly from central Lake Superior through central Wisconsin into eastern Iowa.
Cold front currently extends across central/southwest Kansas.
An upper ridge will bring dry and mild conditions this week.
Moisture in the low to mid levels will continue to increase throughout the morning and models are in good agreement that scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area during the morning and afternoon hours as instability develops.
122 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the middle of the week. Have bumped up highs today a few degrees as we continually overachieve the warmth with the building ridge overhead. Dewpoint temperatures have inched up from the last few days, giving us a higher floor to the lows than we've seen, but readings should still crater after sunset under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions.
A strong cold front is currently moving across the continental divide into western Montana. Whatever snow falls in the lower valleys will only stick to grassy surfaces and be less than an inch. Widespread freezing temperatures will occur all night and dipping into the lower 20s by early morning.
646 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. Southwesterly flow will continue to stream warmer air into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will begin to erode through the period with modest height falls aloft. A cold front associated with a pivoting short mid-level wave over the upper Great Lakes region will approach the area from the North, however the better dynamics and moisture availability is currently forecast to exist north of this region through the period keeping us dry.
246 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
Area webcams and radar trends show snow continuing with marginal temperatures near freezing for the next several hours. First significant snowfall of the season across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado continues this morning as a stalled cold front and 120 kt jet remains anchored southwest to northeast across Utah and Colorado through Monday night. The cold front bringing all of this precipitation will finally tilt its axis and roll on out of here this evening.
under the influence of high pressure centered to the east. S/SE winds of around 10mph with occasional gusts to around 20mph have kept early morning temperatures considerably warmer than in recent days. With abundant afternoon sunshine and southerly winds gusting to 20-25mph, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 80s. Another breezy and warm day will be on tap for Tuesday before a slowly-approaching cold front brings scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area for the middle and end of the week. Models are still having trouble resolving the pattern change as a northern stream wave gradually flattens the unseasonably strong upper ridge initially in place across the eastern CONUS.
At the same time, a cold front will approach from the northwest.
Ample warm advection is also expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon, bringing afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s, with today being the warmest day of the forecast period. This will provide some initial eastward push of an elongated upstream surface cold front, which will approach northwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. The upper-level pattern will retrograde over the southern CONUS as the sub-tropical jet weakens and the western upper low deepens.
After a brief reprieve this morning, that area should see another round of moderate to heavy snow develop this afternoon into the evening as the main upper trough moves through. Elsewhere, snow showers will drop briefly farther south along the Continental Divide this afternoon into the evening as the main upper trough moves through the area. Over the eastern mountain ranges, just a brief window of opportunity for showers during the late afternoon and evening with the trough passage. The best chance for showers over any eastern mountains will likely be over the Pikes Peak Region during the afternoon as the trough begins to move in and instability is at it's greatest. Across the lower elevations, there will be slight chances for some convection over the far eastern plains near the Kansas border this afternoon and evening.
The upper level ridging will continue over the eastern states through the period.
After that it looks like we'll see a break in any widespread precipitation until mid to late afternoon, when some shower/thunderstorm activity should redevelop near the baroclinic zone and along the 850 mb theta-e ridge from southwest Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.
Large dome of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the period. The forecast for the near term remains the same for the residents of eastern Kentucky, as a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to bring dry and pleasant weather to the area for the foreseeable future. The mostly clear and calm conditions on tap for tonight will allow temperatures to fall to chilly readings ranging from the mid 40s in valleys to the lower 50s on ridges. They all depict strong ridging through the southeast portion of the nation stretching from eastern Texas northeast through Pennsylvania. This ridge will start to be impinged from the north and west by an increasingly active flow pattern through the northern tier of the country and Great Lakes region.
While an upper-level jet streak will remain centered over our area today and tonight, a large upper level ridge will begin to develop across most of the southern and eastern CONUS during this time. At the surface, a large high pressure system centered over New England will gradually expand southwestward into our area through tonight. A fairly tight pressure gradient will remain present between this feature and relatively low pressure over the Gulf, so breezy east- northeasterly winds will continue through early evening with gusts up to 20 mph.
302 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
All quiet across south central Texas this morning, with the present weather pattern across the CONUS featuring a large mid level trough across the western US with ridging across the eastern US. By Tuesday, the H5 ridge over the southeastern US strengthens and moves westward, yielding a surge of moisture traversing from the western Gulf into south central Texas.
Southeasterly winds of 10-15kt will slow fog development, but still expect most terminals to have MVFR visibility through 02/15Z, along with the low ceilings. /issued 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ WV imagery shows an upper trough centered over NE MT, w/a secondary trough digging down the west side of it, and forecast to close over NoCal by 06Z Tue. To the east, an upper ridge covers the Gulf Coast states and the Gulf itself. The low- lvl theta-e ridge runs from the Big Bend area NNE thru the Texas Panhandle, and hi-res models suggest that there will be at least an isolated chance of convection developing along this corridor today and tonight.
Strong high pressure to the north will be building into the area tonight and Tuesday with drier air filtering down the state. Mid/upper level ridging will hold over the eastern U.
Southerly flow continues to gradually strengthen across the Western Great Lakes region between strong high pressure extending from Quebec thru the Appalachians and developing low pressure extending thru the Plains states. temps have warmed into the low to mid 70s across most of our CWA. Increasingly warmer air pumping into the Western Great Lakes via southerly flow will keep our temps relatively mild overnight. Low temps will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s across Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan to the low to mid 50s across the rest of Northern Lower Michigan.
310 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Current satellite is showing some cumulus developing over the higher elevations southwest of the Pecos River this afternoon.
/issued 840 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ Some drier air will be moving into the northern half of the area today as high pressure builds into the state. A moderate and gusty east flow will be in place today as high pressure builds down the state tightening the pressure gradient across the area. Easterly flow will remain across the coastal waters through much of the week as strong high pressure builds into the area today.
Tuesday night the cold front sweeps east quickly, leaving only some chance pops over northwest Wisconsin during the evening, then dry conditions after midnight.
As the upper level support begins to break down and the mid level boundary begins to work east and the low level jet takes on more of a southwest direction leading to less mass convergence, expect precipitation to begin to shift the focus to the east after 06Z. Drier air will work into the region to the northwest leading to potentially cooler conditions, but with better mixing conditions, expect day time temperatures to rebound into the 60s.
319 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 The upper-level ridge will be the primary weather feature this week, maintaining generally dry and above normal temperatures across the Mid-South through late week. Currently, we're watching a weak mid-level inverted trough move slowly to the west along the central Gulf coast. In addition to weak forcing for ascent, an uptick in column moisture will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The western CONUS trough retrogrades slightly to the west on Tuesday, allowing the ridge to expand and 500mb heights to climb. This expanding ridge is forecast to shove the aforementioned mid- level inverted trough farther south, limiting its impact on our weather. The presence of the building ridge will allow temperatures to warm a few degrees heading into midweek.
A weak inverted trough developing along the coast and with the sea breeze moving inland will combine with this deep Gulf moisture to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period.
This is the responsible party for the cloud cover (keeping us cooler than yesterday) and the very, very weak returns on radar. This will allow temperatures to climb into the low to middle 80s once again. This will be the case over the next few days as upper level ridging becomes the main influence in our weather here in the mid-state.
Perhaps there will be a bit more wind tonight than last night, but will lean on the cooler side of guidance. High pressure through the lower and midlevels will continue to extend across the region tomorrow, so mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures are expected to persist.
Highs will range from the lower-mid 80s across our area.
with the eastern ridge dominating the weather over central and southeast IL will hold tonight into Tuesday before a strong wave tracks through the upper Midwest toward the James Bay area of Canada.
319 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A fairly stout upper ridge is centered over the eastern third of the country this afternoon. At the surface, winds were relatively light out of the southeast across the lower Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will drop into the low/mid 50s east of I-65, with mid 50s to around 60 along and west of I-65. Tonight through Tuesday, the high amplitude upper ridge is forecast to strengthen. As the ridge builds on Tuesday, low-mid level moisture will get forced to the northwest of the forecast area. Highs Tuesday should be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the low 80s.
Cutoff low over northeast Montana this afternoon elongating with a trough axis extending toward southwest Montana as another upper level low forms over southern Oregon. As the trough axis is stretched overnight it generates shower activity across the area and some of this will become a rain snow mix and some areas could be mostly snow by morning but precipitation amounts look fairly light.
Banded rainfall associated with gulf low pressure swirl evident in satellite imagery over the west gulf. Easterly winds converging on theta-e ridge oriented nearly north-south into southeast Louisiana this morning activated the rainfall with perhaps some isentropic lift enhancement to produce efficient rainfall process.
326 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Ohio Valley.
A cool upper trough will remain over the northern Great Basin through mid week.
One last upper level wave ejecting from the mean west coast trough will bring forcing (and associated showers) tonight into Tuesday morning across much of the area.
222 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A trough of low pressure over the Western U. Warming will occur over the second half of the week as high pressure builds in, helping temperatures return to 5-10 degrees above average by the weekend.
The low level thermal ridge will be in place across srn WI with 925 temps reaching 18-20c, and even a smidge warmer on the ECMWF.
556 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Surface ridging extending into the forecast area from the north along with upper ridging will dominate through tonight. An upper level ridge will remain rather strong and centered just west of the area.
520 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure over eastern Canada will slowly work its way down to the Mid-Atlantic through the middle of the week, and then will anchor itself offshore for the end of the week.
Rainfall is mostly confined to SE LA attm but with moisture advection increasing across this region and strong low to mid level Theta-E ridging increasing as well, we would expect to see widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing and moving into our southeast most zones later this afternoon.
High pressure at 500mb will be anchored across the eastern portion of the US through Tuesday. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will also remain situated across the CWFA through the period. With the high pressure aloft and at the surface, precipitation chances will remain near zero.
221 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the middle of the week. Peak heating this afternoon has pushed temperatures into the low to mid 70s around the region. Dewpoint temperatures have inched up from the last few days, giving us a higher floor to the lows than we've seen, but readings should still crater after sunset under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Aloft, the area remains under southwesterly flow, set up between high pressure extending north through the eastern CONUS and low pressure spinning over the northern Rockies.
Looking for overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.
239 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west. An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week. A long awaited cold front is situated northeast to southwest from just south of Wilmington to just north of Kingstree South Carolina. I opted for the slightly warmer MET numbers for daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s.
607 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an upper trough will lingers over the Great Lakes region.