Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
329 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A cooler airmass will hold temperatures into the 70s and 80s across North-central Montana today.
520 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Weak cold front crossing the area this hour is clearly depicted on radar imagery and evidenced by push of stronger northerly sfc flow and slightly cooler temperatures.
A cooler airmass will hold temperatures into the 70s and 80s across North-central Montana today.
Broad high pressure extended from Edmonton into western Montana, and will be expanding to the east. As the Hudson Bay low tracks northeast, ridging over the northwestern CONUS will begin drifting east towards the region, leading to a warming trend through the weekend.
The pattern begins to change tomorrow however as mid level flow becomes more amplified and the upper ridge begins to break down. An upper trof will begin to dig across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes Region, allowing a frontal boundary to sag south across Kansas by tomorrow afternoon. global ensembles continue to hint at a more progressive pattern bringing more western troffing keeping the ridge pushed off to our south and east.
This is in large part due to broad high pressure in the upper levels draped across the Srn CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Appalachian Mtns with resultant clockwise S/SW flow noted over much of the mid-south. The upper ridge over the Great Basin will amplify late Thursday into Friday, creating NW flow over the nations mid-section, which will send weak upper level impulses towards AR. Also have to decided to hold off on any heat headlines since numbers have been lower than guidance the last couple of days; moisture pooling ahead of the cold front would be the only caveat to this.
514 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Upper level high pressure centered off the NC coast will continue as a dominating influence on our weather through tonight. An impulse will move through a broad upper level trough over the north central and northeast CONUS and will drag the trough slightly southward, impinging on the high. This will support a southward moving cold front which should be approaching the Ohio River at the end of the day. Weakening of the upper high could allow for a bit more in the way of scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop.
/issued 346 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): An approaching midlevel inverted trough will act to increase precipitable water across our area today. This increase in moisture combined with some additional lift from both the inverted trough and the sea breeze will ultimately increase rain chances across the CWA today.
613 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A cold front was analyzed from Buffalo WY, through Custer SD and Aberdeen SD. Today, some of the cooler air across the Northern Plains will push into western NE as a cold front advances quickly south this morning and stalls out near the NE/KS border. POPS will increase overnight, with the highest POPs near 40 percent across west central and southwest NE.
More cloud cover in western sections will keep highs cooler. A weak synoptic cold front will gradually push south through the Texas Panhandle into the South and Rolling Plains during the day Friday.
Above average temperatures are forecast to continue through the next several days as the ridge of high pressure that has been influencing the area remains in place.
1051 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. ML CAPE values in the afternoon look to top the 3500 J/KG range at many spots with dew points in the lower 70s. Severe storms will be possible across the region with the highest threat across northern zones where effective shear will be highest. The upper level pattern does indicate some support aloft as the trough dips further south owing to stronger organization and development.
The highest heat indices (near 110) are still expected to occur over NE OK where moisture has been consistently slow to decrease. Luckily, relief is on the way in the form of a cold front and showers/storms that will approach the area late tonight into tomorrow before giving us cooler weather this weekend.
258 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Observations indicating gusty northerly winds across the area this afternoon with deep mixing and cold air advection behind an exiting cold front.
Northeast winds, cloud cover and periods of showers and thunderstorms will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1001 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Going forecast cuts back on precipitation chances and sky cover in the southwest through the morning, which is matching with current observed trends has high pressure builds in. Broad high pressure extended from Edmonton into western Montana, and will be expanding to the east. As the Hudson Bay low tracks northeast, ridging over the northwestern CONUS will begin drifting east towards the region, leading to a warming trend through the weekend.
135 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A very strong upper low over Hudson's Bay has kept a strong upper NW flow over the region of late will gradually lift NE over the coming days.
Once the front passes plenty of cooler and drier air upstream working in from MN and northwest WI. In fact, high pressure will continue to work in this period and set up shop on Friday and it's drier and cooler influence will carry into Friday night.
(This evening through Friday) A weak upper level low is currently located across far West Texas/southeast New Mexico. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Ridge builds into the area Friday for sunny and dry conditions.
The main wx focus for this afternoon into the evening will be thunderstorm potential, initially with the boundary to the south, and then shifting eventually with a cold front that will drop down into the area after 00z Friday, allowing for some increase in areal coverage of potential rain/storms. By Friday morning, remaining precipitation does begin to lift east- northeast as models bring in upper level ridging from the west.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the afternoon into this evening as a 500mb ridge across east Texas extending into the western Gulf of Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas. /issued 346 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): An approaching midlevel inverted trough will act to increase precipitable water across our area today. This increase in moisture combined with some additional lift from both the inverted trough and the sea breeze will ultimately increase rain chances across the CWA today.
227 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage on Friday evening. Convection chance, mainly showers, will continue overnight as overall ascent improves with the encroaching upr trough/cold front. The upper level pattern does indicate some support aloft as the trough dips further south owing to stronger organization and development.
Northwest flow aloft continues, while at the surface a front is stalled over western South Dakota into central Montana, while high pressure builds over western North Dakota.
223 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A ridge of high pressure continues to establish itself off the coast of British Columbia.
The southeast portions will likely see the best convective chances once again Friday as areas to the north will be under better influence of the ridging/warmth aloft. While this will support temperatures climbing once again into the low/mid 90s, surface dewpoints, like today, will remain in the lower 70s at most locations which will keep heat indices around 100.
Going forecast cuts back on precipitation chances and sky cover in the southwest through the morning, which is matching with current observed trends has high pressure builds in. Broad high pressure extended from Edmonton into western Montana, and will be expanding to the east. As the Hudson Bay low tracks northeast, ridging over the northwestern CONUS will begin drifting east towards the region, leading to a warming trend through the weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Subsidence will continue to prevail across deep south Texas through the rest of the afternoon into this evening with 500mb ridging across east Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight. A weak 500mb inverted trough is expected to develop across the northwest Gulf of Mexico Friday.
Cooler temperatures will finally return to the area tomorrow behind the front. Lows tonight will still stay in the 70s but highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s for much of the area with upper 80s possible across the south, depending on where the boundary ends up.
An upper level high pressure system is expected to gradually build over the region during the period, while PWAT values increase from east to west (deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF). As a compromise between the building upper ridge and increasing moisture, anticipate mostly isolated convection Friday, yet scattered activity over the Victoria Crossroads.
There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, including the cities of Cheyenne, Chugwater, Wheatland, Scottsbluff, Harrisburg, Bridgeport, Kimball, and Sidney.
Areas with the greatest chance for showers/storms and possible flash flooding will be primarily be from Tucson south and east with Santa Cruz County seeing the highest probabilities.
Weak cold front through northern KS is marked by an expanding corridor of convection which is likely to be maintained through the overnight hours along with a slow progression southward of the frontal zone.
332 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure will remain just off the Atlantic. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts to the right of the track, affectionately call the 'dirty' side of the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph.
341 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend.
Cooler and drier air then follows, bringing dewpoints down into the 40s and 50s overnight, which will bring relief from the more tropical feel we've had the past few days. Tomorrow, the full effects of the cool air mass associated with the large scale subsidence and high pressure will bring us a sunny day with highs in the 70s, setting the pace for a quiet weekend.
Chambers In the wake of the cold front passage last evening, weak energy dropping into the area in northwest flow has allowed isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop over areas east of Billings this morning. Otherwise, today will be much cooler than yesterday, with highs from 75 to 85 degrees, with lighter easterly winds for most locations. Dry conditions, light easterly winds and slightly warmer temperatures can be expected on Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. STP Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend as the ridge continues to build.
242 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 At the upper levels, northwest flow aloft continues, with the upper ridge moving over the west coast today, and will progress eastward towards the northern plains over the weekend. Passage of the cold front this morning has helped temper our highs today, and will continue that trend Friday, only reaching into the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the ridge moves closer to to the midwest, temperatures rebound for the weekend.
By Friday morning, a cold front will likely be somewhere near or just north of the CWA. High pressure then builds down into the Great Lakes region for the weekend with northeast surface winds ushering in lower dewpoints. though an approaching cold front will lead to the development of scattered TSRA late this evening to the north.
1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Expanded area of sprinkles/light showers through 18z as the wave in the upper trough continues to spread precip west of the James Valley. High pressure will be dominant over the region during the short term period.
Highs fall back into the low to mid 80s and considerably lower humidity with dew points in the 40s and 50s.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 73 91 72 / 20 40 30 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 72 90 70 / 20 50 40 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 91 71 89 70 / 20 50 40 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 90 68 87 67 / 20 50 40 80 30.
(This evening through Friday) A weak upper level low is currently located across far West Texas/southeast New Mexico. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A dominant upper level ridge has been prevalent over much of the southern CONUS and Texas this week. The ridge will is forecast to weaken over our area this weekend, and will become repositioned over the western CONUS.
Dry northwesterly flow on the backside of the upper trough is bringing in drier and cooler air for the next few days.
Better confidence exists overnight as the convective emphasis shifts long an approaching cold front descending southward out of the Northern Plains.
Temperatures will cool slightly into the low to mid 70s overnight. A cold front that is currently draped across the Great Lakes though the Midwest will slowly start to drop into our area tomorrow, which will be the focus of our weather. Heat indices will be in the low 100s.
A front will bring better chances for showers and storms later tonight into Friday morning, with cooler and drier conditions to follow by this weekend. The bigger concern is when the cold front comes in tonight. The front will should push out by mid-afternoon, and then cooler and drier air will filter in. Tomorrow's highs will only be in the low 80s.
If a robust cold pool surges south/southwest and interacts with the low-level jet tonight, convection could propagate into northern Oklahoma.
A front will bring better chances for showers and storms later tonight into Friday morning, with cooler and drier conditions to follow by this weekend.
In the upper levels, high pressure is positioned off the coast of the Carolinas, while a longwave trough sits to our north and runs through Northern Canada. At the surface, high pressure remains settled across the Southern Appalachians. An upper level wave will be progressing eastward through the trough into Friday, dragging a cold front with it across the Ohio River Valley toward the end of the day/period.
Surface dew points averaged in the upper 50s over the far southwest section of the forecast area south of the boundary - to the mid/upper 60s over the lower plains mainly east of highway 283. Cooler afternoon highs also over portions of central Kansas may not exceed the upper 80s.
Highs across the Valley and trending as much as 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday due to this smoke layer, and have lowered highs for this afternoon due to this.
1050 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Weak cold front crossing the area this hour is clearly depicted on radar imagery and evidenced by push of stronger northerly sfc flow and slightly cooler temperatures.
Cloud cover over the South Plains and western Rolling Plains will help to keep temperatures cooler tomorrow. A weakness is expected to form within the periphery of the upper ridge that is currently over the region tomorrow afternoon. GKendrick The weak inverted upper level trough providing the moist monsoonal plume mainly across the western South Plains will weaken and retreat to the southwest by the middle of the weekend.
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Expanded area of sprinkles/light showers through 18z as the wave in the upper trough continues to spread precip west of the James Valley. High pressure will be dominant over the region during the short term period.
329 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Potentially strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds will continue through tonight, as a cold front moves across Illinois. Some lingering showers or storms are possible on Friday, but a trend to drier and cooler weather will be underway, as high pressure builds in from the northwest to start the weekend. Lingering showers and a few storms are still possible Friday morning as the cold front makes progress away from our CWA to the SE. Highs will be much more pleasant, in the lower 80s for the most part. The heat advisory was trimmed by a row of counties on the northern edge, due to storms and much cooler conditions in that area.
234 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 The cold front that brought brief showers for some this morning has cleared the CWA and skies have mostly cleared, except for some higher clouds in the southwestern forecast area that are in the process of dissipating as they run into drier air. The one fly in the ointment is the low RH values (25-35 percent) especially in parts of the northern and western CWA, along with NW winds gusting to around 25 MPH.
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Risk for storms tonight - Drying out for the weekend - Risk for storms tonight A cold front will be pushing through the region tonight. a large area of high pressure builds in behind the front for the remainder of Friday and through the weekend.
1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A cold front was analyzed from Buffalo WY, through Custer SD and Aberdeen SD. Today, some of the cooler air across the Northern Plains will push into western NE as a cold front advances quickly south this morning and stalls out near the NE/KS border. POPS will increase overnight, with the highest POPs near 40 percent across west central and southwest NE.
208 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure at the sfc will keep the region mostly dry through Friday night. An upper trough will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs only in the upper 70s across the east on Friday and lows dipping into the 50s. The upper trough will exit to the east Friday night as an upper ridge begins to build in from the west.
A broad trough aloft over the northern Plains and Midwest slowly progresses east into the Great Lakes region while amplifying through Friday. Additionally, a massive low pressure aloft over the Florida Peninsula stretching south into the Florida Straits slowly moves west into the eastern Gulf during this time. With this, weak ridging aloft continues to weaken over the southeastern CONUS in between these two features. Outside of these areas, highs should reach the lower to mid 90s. Lows will generally range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast. On Friday, as of now highs still looks to range in the low to mid 90s across the regions.
As we get into the day Friday, the Midwest trough will move eastward and bring a cold front down near the region.
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Aviation - Risk for storms tonight - Drying out for the weekend - Risk for storms tonight A cold front will be pushing through the region tonight. a large area of high pressure builds in behind the front for the remainder of Friday and through the weekend.
GOES Cloud Phase Distinction products show some cumulus trying to develop just north of the border in the lowest 2 tiers of counties in southeastern Nebraska that could serve as the area with the highest chances for any remaining convection this afternoon. Another aspect of the forecast that was affected by the action to the south was the heat in far southeastern Nebraska, where temperatures at KFNB have only achieved 87 degrees this morning before falling back to the lower 80's. Highs are expected to largely stay in the low-to-mid 80's, and will make for a wonderful weekend of weather for the area.
Presently a weak cold front extends W-E across central KS with considerable t-storm activity along the boundary. Weak cold front through northern KS is marked by an expanding corridor of convection which is likely to be maintained through the overnight hours along with a slow progression southward of the frontal zone.
624 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 (This evening through Friday) A weak upper level low is currently located across far West Texas/southeast New Mexico. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A dominant upper level ridge has been prevalent over much of the southern CONUS and Texas this week. The ridge will is forecast to weaken over our area this weekend, and will become repositioned over the western CONUS.
The bigger concern is when the cold front comes in tonight. The front will should push out by mid-afternoon, and then cooler and drier air will filter in. Tomorrow's highs will only be in the low 80s.
Otherwise, the inherited grids remain on track with lows tonight bottoming out in the low to mid 70s with a few locations reaching the upper 60s.
Previous Discussion: A very strong upper low over Hudson's Bay has kept a strong upper NW flow over the region of late will gradually lift NE over the coming days.
/issued 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Subsidence will continue to prevail across deep south Texas through the rest of the afternoon into this evening with 500mb ridging across east Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight. A weak 500mb inverted trough is expected to develop across the northwest Gulf of Mexico Friday.
High pressure will continue to build over the region.
616 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure at the sfc will keep the region mostly dry through Friday night. An upper trough will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs only in the upper 70s across the east on Friday and lows dipping into the 50s. The upper trough will exit to the east Friday night as an upper ridge begins to build in from the west.
especially over the higher terrain on the Caprock. Cloud cover over the South Plains and western Rolling Plains will help to keep temperatures cooler tomorrow. A weakness is expected to form within the periphery of the upper ridge that is currently over the region tomorrow afternoon. GKendrick The weak inverted upper level trough providing the moist monsoonal plume mainly across the western South Plains will weaken and retreat to the southwest by the middle of the weekend.
/Issued 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021/ High pressure will remain just off the Atlantic. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts to the right of the track, affectionately call the 'dirty' side of the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph.
731 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Aviation - Risk for storms tonight - Drying out for the weekend - Risk for storms tonight A cold front will be pushing through the region tonight. a large area of high pressure builds in behind the front for the remainder of Friday and through the weekend.
Relief from the oppressive heat will arrive over the weekend with more pleasant conditions expected behind a cold front. Extended SVR Watch #431 for two hours over western and central areas, and shaved 6 of my southeast counties from the Watch as trigger will be lacking for severe storms over the Lower Susq.
901 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Showers and isolated lightning will continue through tonight as a cold front moves across Illinois. Some lingering showers or storms are possible on Friday, but a trend to drier and cooler weather will be underway, as high pressure builds in from the northwest to start the weekend. Cold front, still north of the forecast area this evening, should start to cross the forecast area a few hours after midnight. Lingering showers and a few storms are still possible Friday morning as the cold front makes progress away from our CWA to the SE. Highs will be much more pleasant, in the lower 80s for the most part. The heat advisory was trimmed by a row of counties on the northern edge, due to storms and much cooler conditions in that area.