Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Sunday/ Key Messages: -Quiet and Seasonal For The Beginning Of The Week -Warming Temperatures Through End Of The Week The trough camped out over Illinois and Missouri can be thanked for the overcast skies and light drizzle across most of central Iowa this morning. This trough will remain parked to our southeast through the beginning of the week, providing moisture and some weak forcing over the area. Through the week, the trough to our southeast will slowly lose influence over the state as high pressure builds to our west and the low breaks off to our south, allowing us to tap into warmer and dryer air.
259 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Tonight and Monday: Upper troughing will remain in control through the short term period as a broad weakness overhead will be slow to move, remaining to the west of the subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic. Our area will be on the eastern side of the upper trough where the height gradient will reach a relative maximum as the subtropical ridge becomes a bit stronger. After dropping into seasonable lows tonight in the lower 70s F, cloud cover and rain chances will result in afternoon temperatures below average for Monday with temperature similar to what we are seeing this afternoon in the middle 80s F.
(This afternoon through Monday night) A strong upper ridge remains over the Western US today while a trough extends from the Great Lakes down into TX. Little change in the pattern for Monday except that the trough develops a low over NE TX. Lows tonight in the 60s except for 50s over the Marfa Plateau, highs climb back into the low 90s along and north of the Pecos River Monday with mainly 80s south of it.
There will be a warming trend through the middle of the week as an upper-level ridge over the West tries to expand eastward. The slow moving trough/wave over eastern MO will help keep upper heights and thicknesses from expanding eastward through, limiting how hot we get. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 80s so we'll see slightly above normal temperatures. With no fetch of Gulf moisture into the area, dewpoints will be in the lower to middle 60s, which is slightly humid but not oppressive as dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s would be. Lower level moisture continues to be wrapped around an area of low pressure to the southeast of the terminals.
Infrared satellite imagery revealed the scope of this anticyclone's subsidence field, with a clear sky across all of the Great Basin, Rockies, and Great Plains. Enhanced NEly midlevel flow will continue, sandwiched between the strong 597 dm midlevel high over the Great Basin, and a weak 584 dm cyclone near the Arklatex. A dry and uneventful pattern will persist through the middle of the week as models indicate upper level ridging remaining locked in across the Intermountain West.
We should see an uptick in clouds and a couple more rumbles of thunder in the higher terrain tomorrow as the dry air over the region is shunted eastward and somewhat of an increase in RH occurs in the lower half of the atmosphere. Otherwise it will continue very warm with temps 2-4F warmer than today as the large area of mid level high pressure dominates our weather pattern. A strong and expansive midlevel anticyclone is forecast to persist over the western CONUS through much of the upcoming week.
The front yesterday flattened out the high pressure ridge and left us under a westerly flow aloft.
(This evening through Monday) Convective initiation has begun along a weak cold front that is supported by some outflow from an MCS that originated over central Oklahoma earlier today. At this time no defined surface boundaries are expected for tomorrow afternoon, although some confluence near the Caprock escarpment and into the lower end of Palo Duro Canyon could result in some isolated thunderstorms.
The troughing in the MS River valley is shipping another core into the base over OK for the most part right now. This low will be our friend for fighting the drought and normal summer temps for the week ahead.
We'll remain under southwesterly flow on the east side of an elongated and weak upper trough stretching from New England to eastern Texas between two stronger high pressure systems.
Kansas sits between an upper-level low to east and an upper-level ridge to the west. The strong western ridge remains in place, while the upper low to our east gradually sinks south. Temperatures remain near or a bit above average, with highs gradually returning to the low 90s late week as the influence of the upper low decreases and the upper-level ridge edges further east. Ensemble guidance has decent agreement in a stronger upper trough digging southeast from the northern Plains, flattening the persistent western ridge as it does so. If the trough makes it far enough south, we could see precipitation chances return.
Though slightly cooler than yesterday, breezy, very warm and dry conditions are on track for today with no significant changes to the forecast this morning.
1242 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Nary a cloud in the sky this afternoon with a strong upper level ridge dominating. High temperatures will reach into the mid-90s across the region with 70s and 80s in the high country and high mountain valleys. Upper ridge of high pressure is anchored over the Great Basin this morning and stretches northeast across up into Wyoming and northern high plains.
142 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 With high pressure still dominating the weather across the Intermountain West, it's a "rinse and repeat" day on the Western Slope. Light easterly flow around the high over the San Juans will pull a bit of Gulf of Mexico moisture across the divide, leading to some clouds and a very slight chance of showers or storms over the southern mountains. Monday is shaping up to be much the same, although with even warmer temperatures possible.
May have to trend down the high temperature forecast for Labor Day a few degrees into the lower 70s, cloud-dependent. -- Sunnier and Warmer Second Part of the Week -- Much of the week's pattern will feature a record-breaking heat wave for September and associated upper-level anticyclone in the western US, and a tendency troughing over the Great Lakes.
1125 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We still have an expansive high pressure centered over Utah, which will keep the dry and warm conditions in place. A majority of the models are not producing much precipitation, but soundings show free convection in the higher terrain.
1122 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We still have an expansive high pressure centered over Utah, which will keep the dry and warm conditions in place. A majority of the models are not producing much precipitation, but soundings show free convection in the higher terrain.
At the surface, a weak low pressure system spins near St. This area is among the most likely to see patchy fog development overnight as temps will be a bit cooler there and dewpoint depressions a degree or two smaller. The blocking ridge over the western CONUS will grow in strength, size, and influence through mid-week, providing increasing heights along the northern Missouri River basin.
Showers and embedded thunderstorm chance will continue through the day and overnight as aforementioned low pressure makes little progress in its eastward movement, allowing for a stationary front to present continuous precipitation chance.
Broad upper ridging extends from near Bermuda southwestward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge shifts southeast near the Bahamas by the end of the week as an upper level low and associated troughing moves along the northern gulf coast.
156 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Current analysis shows a large scale ridge across the western CONUS extending into the plains, with an embedded weak short wave over northeastern Montana. At the surface, a trough associated with the short wave is slowly moving eastward into northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. Breezy to windy southeast/south winds are occurring ahead of the trough, over western South Dakota with somewhat lighter winds to the west.
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Today through Monday night) Upper level high pressure over Nevada and Utah will dominate the weather across much of the Panhandles through Labor Day. There will still be one more short wave trough that may help to bring some showers and thunderstorms to the southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The upper level high moves ever so slightly to the east on Labor Day. This may be just enough to keep any eastern fringe short wave troughs from affecting our area.
(This evening through Monday) We will continue to sit between the high pressure across the western U. and the low pressure across eastern Texas.
An upper trof which is oriented roughly from the Great Lakes into eastern Texas remains nearly in place through Monday while an upper ridge remains anchored generally from the northeastern Gulf to off the Carolinas. A surface trof/frontal boundary currently located near the Red River Valley to near the Mississippi/Ohio River valley confluence appears to weaken somewhat through the period but otherwise remains near this position. There are some indications that a feeble surface trof could form over the forecast area on Monday, but this is uncertain.
Slow moving upper low was over the Mid Mississippi Valley region early this morning. Convection should progress steadily over west KY into southwest IN on the SE flank of the low, while over southern IL, convection will likely move little in close proximity to the low.
Upper ridging will collapse slightly as a vort max traverses through North Dakota late tonight/Monday morning but is expected to build back in Monday afternoon. Warm air advection will push in from the west Monday afternoon on good southerly mixing ahead of a low pressure trough. Elevated smoke will ride in on that upper low and could affect high temperatures by a couple of degrees across central SD on Monday.
Satellite observations indicate the very large chonk of a ridge the size of a large ridge sits over the majority of the western United States. The primary ridge axis is currently trekking across eastern North Dakota.
With extremely warm overnight lows occurring (Billings airport didn't drop below 70) and quick mixdown of warmer temps aloft occurring, temperatures quickly rose into the 90s today, with Sheridan reporting a temperatures of 99 as of 2 PM.
203 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 A cut off upper level low will stay over the Mississippi River Valley throughout this week. Unsettled weather will continue through tonight into Monday due to a cut off upper level low wobbling along the Mississippi River Valley. Monday could have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary associated with the upper level low wanders closer to the Appalachian Mountains. An upper level ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast will sink to the south Monday. Meanwhile, an upper low will wobble over the central Mississippi Valley. This low will send a short wave over the area, bringing showers to mainly the mountains Monday into Monday evening.
1130 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Water vapor shows large scale ridge across the western CONUS extending into the plains, with embedded weak short wave over northwest MT. At the surface, trof associated with short wave is advancing slowly across MT/WY.
223 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 A cut off upper level low will stay over the Mississippi River Valley throughout this week. High pressure wedges in from the northeast for the latter half of the work week. Unsettled weather will continue through tonight into Monday due to a cut off upper level low wobbling along the Mississippi River Valley. Monday could have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary associated with the upper level low wanders closer to the Appalachian Mountains. Dense high pressure will continue to bring heat to the intermountain west. A trough will be situated from the northeastern states to the Gulf Coast, with ridging over Florida and the Caribbean.
1207 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Rest of Today) Active weather will continue today as an upper low continues to stall around SE MO. A warm front has shifted north through the forecast area this morning, and moisture is expected to increase into the afternoon. Southwest flow will persist aloft with several weak disturbances moving across the upper trough axis, resulting in multiple rounds of showers and storms today.
Convection seems to be sustained by an upper-trough across the region. The troughing in the MS River valley is shipping another core into the base over OK for the most part right now. This low will be our friend for fighting the drought and normal summer temps for the week ahead.
500 mb heights slipped a bit to 590 Dm over the past hours, but slightly warmer as well.
An upper level low continues to spin across the FA as scattered showers and thunderstorms have once again developed. On Labor Day, BUFKIT soundings are extremely saturated in the low levels to start off the day resulting in low level clouds once again.
A strong high pressure system over the western United States will remain in place through the middle of the week. High pressure will weaken toward the end of the week with decreasing temperatures and an increasing chance of thunderstorms as monsoon moisture spreads back over our area. A strong high pressure system remained centered over Nevada and Utah during the morning hours. This was placing Arizona on the southern fringes of the anticyclonic high pressure circulation.
High pressure continues to ridge over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico with light southeast winds becoming westerly close to the coast each afternoon.
A strong area of high pressure will bring hot and dry conditions through at least the middle of the week.
520 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Current analysis shows a large scale ridge across the western CONUS extending into the plains, with an embedded weak short wave over northeastern Montana. At the surface, a trough associated with the short wave is slowly moving eastward into northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. Breezy to windy southeast/south winds are occurring ahead of the trough, over western South Dakota with somewhat lighter winds to the west.
604 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (This evening through Monday) Convective initiation has begun along a weak cold front that is supported by some outflow from an MCS that originated over central Oklahoma earlier today. At this time no defined surface boundaries are expected for tomorrow afternoon, although some confluence near the Caprock escarpment and into the lower end of Palo Duro Canyon could result in some isolated thunderstorms.
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (This evening through Monday) We will continue to sit between the high pressure across the western U. and the low pressure across eastern Texas.
623 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Satellite loops show the cut off upper low spinning over eastern MT, and could bring a few showers to the western Devils Lake Basin tonight. There is a decent amount of wildfire smoke wrapping around the backside of the low. Satellite observations indicate the very large chonk of a ridge the size of a large ridge sits over the majority of the western United States. The primary ridge axis is currently trekking across eastern North Dakota.
935 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Some shower activity starting to develop near the upper low over north central ND, however, from obs it does not seem like much if anything is reaching the ground. Will continue to keep the fairly low POPs we have going as the upper low moves east. Satellite loops show the cut off upper low spinning over eastern MT, and could bring a few showers to the western Devils Lake Basin tonight. There is a decent amount of wildfire smoke wrapping around the backside of the low. Satellite observations indicate the very large chonk of a ridge the size of a large ridge sits over the majority of the western United States. The primary ridge axis is currently trekking across eastern North Dakota.
525 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 With high pressure still dominating the weather across the Intermountain West, it's a "rinse and repeat" day on the Western Slope. Light easterly flow around the high over the San Juans will pull a bit of Gulf of Mexico moisture across the divide, leading to some clouds and a very slight chance of showers or storms over the southern mountains. Monday is shaping up to be much the same, although with even warmer temperatures possible.
Late this afternoon a large, weak, slow moving upper level trough extends from eastern TX to the Great Lakes, where it meets up with a more progressive trough in the prevailing westerlies aloft. Upper level ridging is off the southeast coast. At the surface, a high pressure ridge remains near the East Coast. The upper level trough will continue to slowly advance, especially on the northern end as it gets dragged along by the more progressive trough in the prevailing westerlies. By the end of Monday night, this will make our flow aloft a bit more zonal, and the highest precipitable water is expected to shift eastward. A very active weather pattern is anticipated in the extended, as a series of upper level troughs, sluggish surface fronts, and perhaps a closed low all make their way through the region.
615 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 A cut off upper level low will stay over the Mississippi River Valley throughout this week. High pressure wedges in from the northeast for the latter half of the work week. Unsettled weather will continue through tonight into Monday due to a cut off upper level low wobbling along the Mississippi River Valley. Monday could have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary associated with the upper level low wanders closer to the Appalachian Mountains. Dense high pressure will continue to bring heat to the intermountain west. A trough will be situated from the northeastern states to the Gulf Coast, with ridging over Florida and the Caribbean.
There will be a warming trend through the middle of the week as an upper-level ridge over the West tries to expand eastward. The slow moving trough/wave over eastern MO will help keep upper heights and thicknesses from expanding eastward through, limiting how hot we get. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 80s so we'll see slightly above normal temperatures. With no fetch of Gulf moisture into the area, dewpoints will be in the lower to middle 60s, which is slightly humid but not oppressive as dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s would be.
The strong upper high centered to our south will weaken slightly as an upper trough moves across western Canada.
615 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) A strong upper ridge remains over the Western US today while a trough extends from the Great Lakes down into TX. Little change in the pattern for Monday except that the trough develops a low over NE TX. Lows tonight in the 60s except for 50s over the Marfa Plateau, highs climb back into the low 90s along and north of the Pecos River Monday with mainly 80s south of it.
Temps remain close to climo values with lows in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Coast.
/NF/ Tonight and Monday: Upper troughing will remain in control through the short term period as a broad weakness overhead will be slow to move, remaining to the west of the subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic. Our area will be on the eastern side of the upper trough where the height gradient will reach a relative maximum as the subtropical ridge becomes a bit stronger. After dropping into seasonable lows tonight in the lower 70s F, cloud cover and rain chances will result in afternoon temperatures below average for Monday with temperature similar to what we are seeing this afternoon in the middle 80s F.
A stagnant high pressure system centered over out area allows for record and near- record breaking heat to continue through Labor Day and into the midweek with highs in the 90s and 100s.
943 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Issued 943 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022) High pressure extending from the nrn Great Lakes through se Canada will continue to support enely winds at least into Tue AM across the region. Due to the cloud cover, high temps will remain a bit below normal in the lower to middle 70s. Tomorrow, we'll still be stuck in a mix of sun and cloud cover as an elongated 500 mb trough lingers from the Rust Belt to the southern plains. Luckily conditions will be dry owing to high pressure to our north.
The high debris cloudiness will gradually thin while temperatures only slowly inch downward into the mid and upper 70s.
For now, clear skies in eastern Kansas and western Missouri is allowing some patchy light fog to develop ahead of the incoming stratus deck and temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. Not much change in weather features as the area is still sandwiched in between low pressure over Oklahoma and western Arkansas and another feature still spinning over eastern Missouri and into Illinois. The rest of the week will see a gradual warming trend as the western ridge axis tries to build eastwards. Temperatures will start out in the lower to mid 80s and by the end of the week we could start to see 90s reappear again for portions of the forecast area. The ridge will have a hard time moving east as the two areas of low pressure make very little effect to move on.
Prevailing tranquil conditions will continue today and tonight as a broad upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control throughout the entire western conus, including the Western High Plains. A relatively weak northeast flow aloft combined with a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels limiting instability, will keep precip chances at bay in western Kansas through the period. Temperatures will bump up a little today as prevailing low level south-southeasterlies draw warmer air back into western Kansas. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s(F) can be expected.
1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) A strong upper ridge remains over the Western US today while a trough extends from the Great Lakes down into TX. Little change in the pattern for Monday except that the trough develops a low over NE TX. Lows tonight in the 60s except for 50s over the Marfa Plateau, highs climb back into the low 90s along and north of the Pecos River Monday with mainly 80s south of it.
(Monday through Tuesday) A fairly stagnant pattern to persist through the short-term period characterized by an upper-level trough as well as a weak surface boundary lingering across the region. However, it should be noted that each day will not be a washout by any means despite persistent upper-level troughing that is expected to remain in place this week. This pattern will be largely driven by the massive upper-level ridge out west while the Bermuda High maintains its usual residence across the western Atlantic, effectively pinning the trough over much of the eastern CONUS. Given the trough axis placement generally along the Mid and Lower MS Valley, expect the heaviest rainfall amounts to remain well east of our region throughout the week.
234 AM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Key Messages: - Continued quiet, some clouds and fog potential tonight - Warming into midweek - Rain chances looking more likely heading into weekend A dome of high pressure aloft remains centered over the Great Basin with ridging extending into the Upper Midwest.
1206 AM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (The rest of tonight) Isolated to widely scattered storms along and ahead of a front and beneath a trough of low pressure aloft have for the most part dissipated as sunset approaches.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging continues to reside across the Four Corners this morning with troughing across eastern Texas. With afternoon temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s area wide, convective temperatures may be reached east of the Caprock escarpment where convergence will be maximized. While the blended model data tended to produce PoPs near 0% have gone ahead and increased these values to 10% to account for any isolated activity that may develop as depicted by a few of the high resolution model guidance.