Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
402 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 There has been little change to the overall pattern since early this morning, with the upper low still circulating over the Carolinas and the other upper trough over ID/MT ahead of surface lee troughing in eastern CO. This cloud cover should dissipate into the evening after highs top out in the low to mid 90s area-wide. As a result, we'll see mostly clear skies overnight with southerly winds keeping morning temperatures in the low 70s.
601 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate through the taf period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
-Mottice An upper low/trough moving northeast through Montana today lifting into the Canadian Prairies tonight and Thursday will continue to be the main weather maker. Rain and snowshowers across the region have been north and west of the low track with the exception of some showers over the eastern zones dissipating this evening. An upper low will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairies on Thursday.
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Heat, high dew points, and instability have built up east of a surface cold front situated west of the Missouri River this afternoon. All indications by the ops models and high-res models is that storm development will occur between 23z and 01z along the cold front with an upper level trigger moving in. Therefore, the surface cold front will make its push through the region through Thursday afternoon with northwest winds bringing in cooler air. Another round of showers and storms is expected to develop mainly east of the James Valley on Thursday afternoon with the lift of the short wave trough moving over the region.
Synoptic scale: Closed upper low in the Mid-Atlantic states with deep trough in the Rockies. Forecast: Clear to partly cloudy with lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs on Thursday in the upper 80s at most locations.
An upper-level trough spanning the western US has been producing breezy southwesterly winds across our area. This is particularly true across ridgetops, although models indicate a gradual weakening of the 700mb gradient during the afternoon/evening. This continues as the upper trough suppresses our temperatures over the next several days.
Mid-level ridging will continue to dominate the overall pattern across the central and south-central CONUS, including Deep South Texas, over the next 24-36 hours.
As a result, broad troughing is located across east. This is in addition to a broad trough reaching out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, Atlantic ridging extends southwestward towards Florida. This along with the nearby troughing is producing a gentle to moderate east to southeast breeze. Short Term Update - Broad troughing will remain in place through the overnight period, as well the gyre over the eastern United States. Broad troughing near our area and an Atlantic ridge nosing towards Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across Keys waters.
634 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Shower activity today has focused across the Big Horn Basin, ahead of the low spinning across eastern ID this afternoon. The low opens up and sweeps east tonight into tomorrow, focusing the precip mainly across Yellowstone and the Absarokas in the NW flow behind the low.
/Issued 335 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ Persistent closed upper low over the Carolinas slowly drifts slowly northward toward the eastern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region and unwinds through the period. General low-level flow has already shifted to west/northwest and influence of the cool easterly low- level flow and cool pool of air associated with the upper low diminishing.
VFR conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. Deterministic runs maintain a quasi-stationary upper level high pressure ridge over the region during the period, along with near normal to slightly above normal PWAT values.
Upper level closed low will continue to influence our weather through the short term. We remain dry and fair overnight but overnight lows will be warmer than previous evening from the upper 50s and low 60s. Dew points will climb back into the low to middle 60s.
649 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 A persistence forecast will hold this evening as high pressure remains anchored across the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in clear skies and light east winds. The upper low over the NC/VA border region will meander its way toward the Upper Ohio Valley on Thursday.
A cold front is parked over far southern Utah this evening as the associated trough continues to make its way across far northern Utah.
1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through Thursday morning. High pressure will remain across the area overnight as a closed low over the Carolinas begins to drift northwest into the central Appalachians. High clouds will continue to spread northward into the region overnight area ahead of the closed low, but the cloud cover will be thin. The closed low will remain nearly stationary over the central Appalachians Thursday and Thursday night. A bit more humidity arrives during the day Thursday with surface dewpoints creeping into the lower 60s, especially across the Southern Tier. Upper low to our south and southwest straddling the OH/PA boarder will slowly drift a bit further north then move east while fading away during this period.
The unusually cold area of low pressure is centered directly overhead today allowing for the continued unsettled weather over our area. The good news however is that this feature is beginning to move east of the region allowing for warmer and eventually summer-like temperatures by this weekend.
930 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 A whole lot of nothing going on this evening, as a Rex block maintains ridging surface and aloft. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level ridging axis stretches from the souther/central Plains northeastward up across the northern Great Lakes, overtop a cutoff low centered over North Carolina (a quintessential Rex block pattern). Blocking pattern will remain more or less intact for the next few days while aforementioned cutoff low drifts N/NW into the Ohio Valley and upper level troughing begins to press into the Upper Midwest.
Reinserted 20 pops along the Highway 83 corridor. Thus, have the highest pops in this area. Given the high temperature/ dewpoint depressions and forecast DCAPE, strong to marginally severe outflow winds will be the main threat as activity develops upscale along the front.
635 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Blocky upper level pattern with an elongated ridge stretching from the Midwest east to New England, and a cut off low spinning over North Carolina will persist for the next 24-36 hours. Carney The block aloft will begin breaking down late Thursday as the upper level low currently spinning over eastern Idaho moves northeast and interacts with the upper ridge.
With the shift of the upper level disturbance out of the region, ridging will become the dominate feature over the West and the introduction of warming temperatures. Model confidence remains high with the solution of having the upper level disturbance moving into Northern Canadian Great Plains as the ridge axis shifts ashore onto the West Coast.
Broken cumulus decks draped over the region will continue to limit solar heating as temperatures rise into the upper 70s and peak in the low to mid 80s later today.
/issued 341 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ Current surface observations indicate afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s today with overnight lows in the mid to lower 60s.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level ridging axis stretches from the souther/central Plains northeastward up across the northern Great Lakes, overtop a cutoff low centered over North Carolina (a quintessential Rex block pattern). Blocking pattern will remain more or less intact for the next few days while aforementioned cutoff low drifts N/NW into the Ohio Valley and upper level troughing begins to press into the Upper Midwest.
858 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Northerly flow aloft continues across the Mid-South on the western periphery of the deep trough over the eastern CONUS. Multiple areas of cyclonic rotation are evident within this trough that is slowly retrograding westward at this time.
At the surface, lee troughing remain in place with high pressure over the Ohio Valley. A cold front is still expected to push south, and by 21z is expected to extend from the near KSLN to near KGBD. The ECMWF is much quicker to build the upper ridge back in over the southern Plains by Mon night with the GFS holding it back over the Desert Southwest. Otherwise, south winds will remain brisk ahead of a cold front on Thursday.
314 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The cold front is slowly making headway through the I-70 corridor this afternoon extending from near Canyonlands NP to Oak Creek. The main system pushing this front is located up across the northern Rockies where snow has been falling at the higher elevations of Idaho. but cooler.
Quiet, pleasant conditions to continue through Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures. VFR conditions to continue this forecast period with lighter surface winds continuing due to nearby high pressure over the Great Lakes into the Northeast CONUS. Very quiet weather will continue through this period as an upper level ridge remains over the region while slowly pushing east. Thursday night we will see the front begin to approach the area as high pressure and upper level ridge push out but we will likely remain dry overnight Thursday as well.
941 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Latest near term model guidance suggests that the TN Valley will remain beneath a light-moderate NNW flow regime overnight, in the circulation around a cutoff upper low centered across western portions of VA/NC.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Strong upper trough continues to slowly churn eastward over the northern Rockies today. Our weather pattern begins to change by mid to late day Thursday as the aforementioned low emerges into the northern Plains and pushes a cold front into the state. Upper jet associated with the trough lags behind the frontal axis and minimizes the deep layer shear available for storm organization. HREF probability matched mean guidance highlights north central Iowa for the highest rainfall amounts, but messy convective modes limits confidence on how this scenario may evolve.
A disturbance rotating around the main upper low will clip eastern reaches of the CWA.
207 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Northwest flow aloft over the region this morning as elongated upper level low spins over western Manitoba. Temperatures will be warmer with more sunbreaks but still 15 degrees below normal for most areas. Drier air sweeps into the region overnight to cut off the precipitation and a switch to a more westerly flow aloft begins pulling warmer low level air in the western half of the area.
Deterministic runs maintain a quasi-stationary upper level high pressure ridge over the region during the period, along with near normal to slightly above normal PWAT values.
1050 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Shower activity today has focused across the Big Horn Basin, ahead of the low spinning across eastern ID this afternoon. The low opens up and sweeps east tonight into tomorrow, focusing the precip mainly across Yellowstone and the Absarokas in the NW flow behind the low.
1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The upper level low anchored over the southeast US this week will finally be breaking down while a ridge moves in over the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
111 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2020 High pressure will build over the region over the next few days bringing a warming trend with a return to triple digit heat in the lower elevations. A very classic weather scenario for mid June over the Central California Interior with clear skies and high pressure building over the area. Over the next several days, forecast models are in very good agreement in building a ridge of high pressure over the West.
1218 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Periodic scattered showers will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. Very light, isolated showers and sprinkles are currently shown on radar over southern portions of the area, with better coverage across the ridges. The aforementioned upper low will remain the dominant feature through the end of the work week as it slowly fills and transitions across the region.
WV imagery and UA analysis indicates an upper level trough of low pressure shifting slowly east out of the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing slowly southeast across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska while an attendant dryline stretches southward near the Kansas border in extreme eastern Colorado. Reinserted 20 pops along the Highway 83 corridor. Thus, have the highest pops in this area. Given the high temperature/ dewpoint depressions and forecast DCAPE, strong to marginally severe outflow winds will be the main threat as activity develops upscale along the front.
Upper low along NC/VA border continues to throw patchy clouds back into the region, and will do so through the night. Upper level closed low will continue to influence our weather through the short term. We remain dry and fair overnight but overnight lows will be warmer than previous evening from the upper 50s and low 60s. Dew points will climb back into the low to middle 60s.
Changes are taking shape this morning however as a strong upper level trough is moving through the northern/central Rockies and the recent blocking pattern finally breaks down, especially by later in the weekend. Cold front moving into the high plains this afternoon and dry line to the west will serve as a focus for afternoon thunderstorms, with potential growth into a complex later this evening, part of which may eventually spread into northeast OK after midnight.
413 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The surface features remain weak with high pressure off to the north today and low off the coast of Virginia. The main weather player has been a pesky slow moving upper level low that continues to rotate just to our east this morning.
KCSV, with its proximity to the upper low situated to our east, may be the exception to this rule with brief MVFR vis around sunrise Thursday and VCTS for a few hours Thursday afternoon.
A warming and drying trend will likely peak across the interior on Thursday as high pressure over the Pacific builds inland. Slightly cooler temperatures will develop near the coast late in the week and into the upcoming weekend, while temperatures will remain above seasonal averages across the interior. High pressure aloft and at the surface is centered about 500 miles off the northern and central California coast with a ridge extending into Vancouver Island. This brought a warmer airmass with light offshore flow to the district today. Highs today were as much as 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds in the higher elevations of the North and East Bay Hills were briefly gusting in the 20-30 mph range today. Highs Thursday will warm an additional 2-5 degrees as the ridge moves over the area.
246 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Elongated upper low over eastern Saskatchewan/western Manitoba continues to slowly drift eastward. Cold front has pushed east of the area and continues to march eastward. Expect cooler temperatures today with partly cloud skies.
311 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Current satellite imagery reveals several bands of clouds moving across the region this morning in association with the upper level low that is currently centered over western Virginia. The closed low is progged to continue drifting northwestward along the KY/WV border throughout the day before finally beginning to lift off to our northeast late tonight. As we remain under the influence of the low today, CAMs continue to indicate scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area beginning late morning/early afternoon and then diminishing towards sunset as we lose daytime heating. Similar to yesterday, high temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with low temperatures tonight falling into the low to mid 60s.
As the larger scale trough axis remains well off to the west, prevailing southerlies will reinforce pooling moisture ahead of a slowly advancing cold front with surface dewpoints reaching into the 60s(F) in south central Kansas to well up into the 50s(F) further west/northwest. For tonight, should see lows generally down into the 50s(F) out west closer to the Colorado border with the lower/mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas.
1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Blocky upper level pattern with an elongated ridge stretching from the Midwest east to New England, and a cut off low spinning over North Carolina will persist for the next 24-36 hours. Carney The block aloft will begin breaking down late Thursday as the upper level low currently spinning over eastern Idaho moves northeast and interacts with the upper ridge.
Heat, high dew points, and instability have built up east of a surface cold front situated west of the Missouri River this afternoon. All indications by the ops models and high-res models is that storm development will occur between 23z and 01z along the cold front with an upper level trigger moving in. Therefore, the surface cold front will make its push through the region through Thursday afternoon with northwest winds bringing in cooler air. Another round of showers and storms is expected to develop mainly east of the James Valley on Thursday afternoon with the lift of the short wave trough moving over the region.
152 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Upper level low drifts northward over the area today and tonight.
Otherwise, the upper low will shift further north through the period, however ample diurnal heating will favor convection nearly regionwide today, thus carried prob30s at all sites, prevailing shra at TRI. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 65 88 66 91 / 40 20 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 63 85 64 88 / 40 30 50 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 85 64 89 / 50 30 40 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 60 80 60 83 / 70 50 80 30 40.
300 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The blocking pattern that has kept the area with quiet conditions the past several days will remain in place through much of this period. However, we will begin to see the pattern change a little as the upper ridging begins to break down and push east as troughing develops across the Plains.
236 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Pesky upper low, which has been in reasonably close proximity over the last several days, is currently located over far southwestern Va.
Subtle ridging remains in place across the south-central part of the country. The lower levels look to be largely uncapped late this afternoon with an absence of low level moisture.
That western trough will push a front southeastward this afternoon and this evening. That cold front will be the focus for storms as it moves into the forecast area later today. So for now, have placed the highest PoPs northwest of I-35 with just slight chances through the evening hours southeast of I-35.
High pressure will continue to dominate through the taf period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
Sitting between two troughs, one across the pacific northwest and one over the eastern CONUS, leaves our area under ridging. This low will begin to transition to the northwest and into the Ohio River Valley today with the ridging expanding further towards the east. This will limit the precipitation potential across the area for Thursday, however, there is still a chance that we could see some showers and thunderstorms develop on the peripheral of the ridge. A for temperatures, look for highs in the lower 90s for Thursday across the region.
The rain is associated with a cold front that is expected to move through the forecast area today. The cold front is expected to move into Knox County (the far northwest extent of Omaha's warning area) by 7 am. Precipitable water will increase with strong moisture advection ahead of the cold front.
353 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The cold front remains the primary talking point for the short term.
213 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Northwest flow aloft over the region this morning as elongated upper level low spins over western Manitoba. Temperatures will be warmer with more sunbreaks but still 15 degrees below normal for most areas. Drier air sweeps into the region overnight to cut off the precipitation and a switch to a more westerly flow aloft begins pulling warmer low level air in the western half of the area.
222 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Cold front is moving through northwest part of the forecast area early this morning and will continue to push southeast, clearing the area by 15-18z. High temperatures today will be much cooler than they have been in quite some time, upper 70s to lower 80s, which is slightly below normal.
1149 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The cold front is slowly making headway through the I-70 corridor this afternoon extending from near Canyonlands NP to Oak Creek. The main system pushing this front is located up across the northern Rockies where snow has been falling at the higher elevations of Idaho. but cooler.
331 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The friendly, neighborhood, closed upper low that has persisted in the Southeast over the last several days will continue to meander northward from the Central/Southern Appalachian towards the eastern Great Lakes. As the upper low continues northward, the more comfortable temperatures we've experienced the last several days will slowly be replaced with slightly above normal temperatures and the return of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Instability is still very limited with minimal CAPE above the freezing level reducing the chances for widespread thunderstorms, though isolated storm development could be possible. Highs in the low- to mid- 80s today should also increase to the mid- to upper-80s as well.
The upper low over now over Virginia will meander its way toward the Upper Ohio Valley on Thursday.
The mid/upper low that doesn't end has now shifted over the Mid Appalachians and continues to serve the dual purpose of channeling drier mid/upper level air southward along the Mississippi River Valley while also providing the impetus for limited shower activity in areas closer to the low itself.
Central Illinois will remain under the influence of a pronounced upper-level ridge today: however, a closed low currently over West Virginia will edge northwestward and spread mid/high moisture into the eastern KILX CWA. Despite synoptic subsidence beneath the ridge, scattered to perhaps broken diurnal clouds will develop along/east of I-57. Afternoon high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, mainly in the middle to upper 80s. As the West Virginia closed low gradually weakens and lifts northward, the blocking patten that has prevailed across the CONUS for the past several days will break down. As a result, a cold front will sink southward into Illinois, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend.
137 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 A whole lot of nothing going on this evening, as a Rex block maintains ridging surface and aloft. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level ridging axis stretches from the souther/central Plains northeastward up across the northern Great Lakes, overtop a cutoff low centered over North Carolina (a quintessential Rex block pattern). Blocking pattern will remain more or less intact for the next few days while aforementioned cutoff low drifts N/NW into the Ohio Valley and upper level troughing begins to press into the Upper Midwest.
Despite some weak forcing associated with the upper low, moisture will remain lacking and therefore limit the coverage of any convection later today. Given the light northerly flow through much of the day, expect temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s.
350 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. Greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon is likely to be across the highest east-facing slopes given persistent E/SE flow.