Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
206 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020 A warming trend kicks in today through the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend with afternoon highs climbing into the 80s in the Sierra and low 90s for western NV. Ensembles continue to show low pressure approaching the California coast for the weekend.
/Issued 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ Cold front is making slow progress east this morning, presently in the general vicinity if U.
735 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Rain chances return over the weekend with an approaching low pressure system. Upsloping and lingering moisture in the boundary layer increase the chance for showers along the ridges. The cold front will continue to advance south early Friday morning. Ongoing northerly flow on the east side of a building high pressure will bring in comparatively cooler, drier conditions. As high pressure advances east into New England, warm, moist air will return to the Ohio River Valley.
500mb low across the western United States and a 500mb ridge across the most of the southeast U. will continue to allow cooler air across the Rockies to filter into northwest Texas as warm air continues to advect northward across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana ahead of a weak cold front expected to stall across east Texas this afternoon. Subsidence is expected to increase across southeast LA this afternoon into this evening with a 500mb inverted trough across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. As the weak 500mb inverted trough moves westward Friday.
A warmer day is in store with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s, but areas across the south with the cloud cover and rain showers may limit temperatures to the mid 50s. Slightly warmer conditions are expected on Friday as temperatures recover into the 60s. A closed upper-level low pressure system will move towards the area from the southwest.
702 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 (Today and Tonight) A closed upper low currently over the Four Corners region, will begin lifting northeast towards the Central Plains today.
/issued 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ An upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South through Friday. The ridge will begin to break down over the weekend allowing for a cold front to move into the area. Models are showing a low pressure system developing near the Gulf Coast with an inverted trof extending northward into the Mid-South. Thus the higher dewpoints would pool on the eastern side of this inverted trof while drier air continues across Northeast Arkansas. The interaction of daytime heating and the higher dewpoints would produce showers and thunderstorms across areas of West Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi. Temperatures may be a tad cooler where convection occurs with readings in the lower to mid 80s.
Weak upper level trough will continue to move west as high pressure builds from the north.
A closed low over the For Corners region of the U. While a stray shower tonight or Friday morning cannot be ruled out while the low makes its closest pass, most places will see little more than some increased cloudiness. The low will shift east and transition to an open wave over the Midwest as an upper ridge over the western U.
515 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Water vapor shows west/northwest flow along the US/Cndn border, with cut-off low over the Four Corners. Temps will warm into the 60s to around 70 today, with increasing mid/high level clouds from the south as aforementioned cut-off low begins ejecting northeast. Upper low will lift into southeast WY by late tonight and western SD on Friday, spreading fairly widespread showers into the region. High temps on Friday should be a tad cooler than today given abundant cloud cover.
The deep polar trough that brought record cold temperatures for many moves east today. Lingering light precipitation over northwest Iowa exits with the trough later this morning, with dry conditions in its wake. On Friday, the cut-off upper-level low pressure that had been spinning over the Rockies migrates eastward. This will introduce southerly flow throughout the lower atmosphere, advecting in moisture from the south.
428 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 An upper level low is over the Four Corners Region. The winds at Guadalupe Pass have weakened below high wind criteria and are not expected to increase so the High Wind Warning has been cancelled. The upper low lift northward over the northern Plains on Friday with surface winds across the area becoming southerly. Upper ridging develops over the southern U. Slight chances of precipitation will remain but it will mostly be confined to the higher terrain.
Trough centered to the east over the Four Corners area and eastern Pacific ridging to the west bringing a north to northeasterly flow across the region. The smoke will also continue hampering our temperature forecast as areas that receive thicker smoke will be cooler than synoptically expected due to the blocked solar insolation. By this weekend, the Pacific ridging will move eastward over the western third of the CONUS and for us will warm temperatures slightly above normal this weekend.
Showers were mainly west of our forecast area across western MO well ahead of a slow moving upper level low over the Four Corners region.
H85 temps will climb to around +10C as the region sees upper level height rises between troughs. The cooler than normal temps will continue tonight and Friday. Clouds will roll into the western counties late tonight ahead of an upper low that will bring widespread showers to the area on Friday.
High pressure will be in charge today through Friday. The cooler temps will be the result of a southwest wind pulling cooler air in off of the lake.
A low pressure system spinning near the Four Corners region will move northeast into Colorado today. A dry northwesterly flow will follow for Friday, with high pressure becoming established across the region this weekend.
/issued 358 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The main story in the short term is the cold front and the challenge of the progression of this front through Deep South Texas. By Friday the 500 mb low located over the four corners begins to retreat to the north and west allowing warmer temperatures to ease back into the area.
Temperatures remain on track to bring slightly warmer temperatures to the region today with a recovery into the 60s to low 70s. South to southwest winds remain fairly steady, but are lowest from Wadena to Elbow Lake, where temperatures are currently in the lower 30s.
(Today and Tonight) A closed upper low currently over the Four Corners region, will begin lifting northeast towards the Central Plains today.
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 South to southwest winds remain fairly steady, but are lowest from Wadena to Elbow Lake, where temperatures are currently in the lower 30s.
The upper low continues to spin near the four corners this morning while a broad area of ascent was noted across the southern and central Plains. As the upper low begins to move northeastward tonight precipitation chances will increase for the late evening and overnight hours as large scale ascent along with some isentropic lift increases across eastern Kansas.
954 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 A low pressure system spinning near the Four Corners region will move northeast into Colorado today. A dry northwesterly flow will follow for Friday, with high pressure becoming established across the region this weekend.
Heading into Friday, H5 low pressure, that has been cut off over Colorado, will gradually be pulled into the upper H5 flow pattern.
Isolated showers have returned to western Kansas with the upper low centered near the Four Corners. The upper low begins to push northeast tonight into Friday with deeper moisture returning as decent Q-vector convergences moves through late tonight into midday Friday. Guidance continues to show a decent spread in precip timing and coverage though eastern areas appear to have the best available moisture so have the highest chances there. Have tonight's lows a bit warmer with stratus persisting over the higher dewpoint air. Should see somewhat warmer temps Friday as the moisture is somewhat scoured behind the wave axis.
Forecast soundings from across the area indicate a bit of dry air intrusion into the lower and middle levels for this evening, which adds some confidence to the decreasing chances for rain toward the sunset hour. That activity likely increases toward midnight and beyond as the mid level trough slowly pushes eastward and into the area Friday morning into Friday afternoon. The better lift associated with that trough will move into the area late Friday morning, into Friday evening, which will cause an increase in rain coverage Friday afternoon.
217 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift east and take control of our weather through the first half of the weekend.
1248 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Upper low currently over the Four Corners will kick out to the northeast today and tonight, reaching the Dakotas by Friday afternoon. Rain chances will gradually increase from west to east today as the upper low approaches, with the best chances tonight. Rain chances should end by 12z Friday as the upper low pulls away.
There will likely be low clouds and fog again on Friday morning across much of the area, but It looks likely that this low level cloudiness could dissipate more quickly on Friday than it has the previous 2 days, so temperatures may rebound more quickly on Friday, especially over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. there will be plenty of mid-level cloudiness on Friday, and showers over central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois, so temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s continue to look likely Carney The Four Corners upper low will be drifting over the northeast Plains by Friday night.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening with the highest chances at VLD and TLH.
233 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 The clouds will remain in place for the remainder of today and tonight, but some sunlight is making it through the low cloud deck this afternoon. The low clouds will be firmly in place tomorrow morning for most of us, then begin to lift and clear from west to east, as the trough axis begins to shift from the Rockies into the Central Plains.
The cold front has pushed south and east of the area and appears to be across the offshore waters at this time. Ample moisture overriding the shallow cooler airmass will lead to additional scattered showers through the remainder of the afternoon. Not much support in the upper levels as ridging is progged to take place through Friday. Temperatures will be cooler across S TX given some weak CAA and increased moisture/clouds. Friday night lows will be a tad warmer as the airmass modifies.
445 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift east and take control of our weather through the first half of the weekend.
245 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Another warm and predominately dry day in store the Midsouth on Friday, courtesy of a 593 dm 500 mb height ridge centered over the TN River valley.
Upper level closed low over the Four Corners is starting its slow trip to the northeast. The main vort max associated with the low has moved across the Panhandles, bringing light showers most of the western and northern Panhandles. Another subtle wave was noted on WV satellite imagery rounding the base of the low, and this feature may help produce a few more showers later today into tonight across mainly the northern half of the Panhandles.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The large 500 mb closed low over the Desert SW region will start lifting NE over the next couple of days riding up over the top of the 500 mb ridge centered over the eastern States. Meanwhile on the south side of the ridge axis a series of inverted 500 mb troughs will move from east to west over the Gulf of Mex throughout the upcoming weekend. This combination will erode away the west side of the ridge axis with the old cold front that moved through the RGV earlier this morning becoming stationary over the western Gulf. Despite the passage of the weak cold front earlier this morning, expect pretty deep layer tropical moisture to remain in place throughout tonight and Fri.
211 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Overview: A cut-off upper low invof the 4-Corners will lift NNE through CO into eastern WY tonight -- then eastward across the Northern Plains Fri-Fri night. With cyclonic flow aloft over the region Fri-Fri night (along the southern fringe of the upper low progressing slowly east across the Northern Plains). Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies, a light SSW- SW breeze, and warmer temperatures.
/Issued 206 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ A warming trend kicks in today through the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend with afternoon highs climbing into the 80s in the Sierra and low 90s for western NV. Ensembles continue to show low pressure approaching the California coast for the weekend.
Winds are light from the east and southeast as we remain on the southwest periphery of an expansive North Atlantic ridge. Beyond this afternoon and tonight, it looks like a thermal trough will develop over the mainland for Friday.
An upper high centered over Middle Tennessee this afternoon does seem to be keeping a lid on any convection, and the upper ridge will be slow to retreat.
This will result in another day of cooler than normal temperatures with a gradual warming trend expected into the weekend. Water vapor imagery showed an upper level low over SW Colorado with drier air moving across the area under westerly flow aloft. Slight chance for a brief shower over the higher terrain near the AZ/NM border this afternoon. Highs today will be a little warmer west and south of Tucson and a little cooler northeast of Tucson. Warmer temperatures into the weekend and we hold on to enough moisture east of Tucson for a slight chance of afternoon storms but mainly across the White mountains.
123 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Moisture in the boundary layer has kept ceilings at the low end of MVFR today. Expanding high pressure system moving in from the Midwest this morning and upper-level confluence will act to weaken the baroclinic zone across the state through the afternoon and will end drizzle/light rain chances across the state as drier air filters in. Northeast surface winds will hold ahead of the advancing high pressure which will maintain widespread stratus through the day while capping daytime highs in the 60s (touching 70 across the southern Metro region).
Warm, moist air will be advected into the Midwest ahead of the advancing upper low on Friday. With the broad synoptic lift provided by the upper low widespread rainfall is expected across the Upper Midwest.
1057 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Water vapor shows west/northwest flow along the US/Cndn border, with cut-off low over the Four Corners. Temps will warm into the 60s to around 70 today, with increasing mid/high level clouds from the south as aforementioned cut-off low begins ejecting northeast. Upper low will lift into southeast WY by late tonight and western SD on Friday, spreading fairly widespread showers into the region. High temps on Friday should be a tad cooler than today given abundant cloud cover.
So although we do expect to see areas of rain tonight and into tomorrow, will keep POPs on the somewhat conservative with the low QPF showing that not everyone will get measurable precipitation, and there will be some question on where the primary banding of precipitation will be as we get later into tonight and tomorrow.
Huston Satellite imagery shows deep closed low centered near the Four Corners region while amplified ridge remains off Pacific coast. Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning, though temperatures are still elevated well above freezing as of 2am. With upper ridge gradually shifting east through the remainder of the week, and temperatures trending upwards, believe this will be the last East Idaho will see from this current cold snap.
The cold front that has been affecting the area the last couple of days has moved a little further east today and is stalled along the OK/AR border. Otherwise, due to recent rains, cooler temperatures, and deep moisture. The upper low should begin to move out of the area tomorrow which will provide improvement to flying conditions for the region. The cold front has progressed slowly to the east this morning and has stalled out near the OK/AR border. However, ahead of the front in western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma, temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s as the cold front will not make it that far east today.
Temperatures are on the way into the lower 60s near Fergus Falls with lower 70s for the Devils Lake region. Temperatures remain on track to bring slightly warmer temperatures to the region today with a recovery into the 60s to low 70s. South to southwest winds remain fairly steady, but are lowest from Wadena to Elbow Lake, where temperatures are currently in the lower 30s.
The low level saturated frontal inversion has persisted evidenced by sluggish low ceilings and drizzle that was surprisingly active here midday in the highlands near the office.
The mid/upper trough over the Rockies will begin to lift north and east toward the Northern Plains on Friday allowing light southerly flow to return to the Central Plains region. There remains some uncertainty towards the end of the period as the ECMWF drives another sharp cold front southward towards the region while the GFS maintains mid/upper ridging across the Southeastern U.
1252 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 (Today and Tonight) A closed upper low currently over the Four Corners region, will begin lifting northeast towards the Central Plains today.
(This evening through Friday) The upper low over the Colorado/Utah border will lift northeast into western South Dakota on Friday. With widespread cloud cover tonight, only expect temperatures to drop a couple of degrees for the lows.
Friday the upper level low center will be positions near the Black Hills in South Dakota and drier and warmer air will rotate in.
An upper low over Colorado will lift northeast into the northern plains Friday, with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two remaining possible in our area, especially Friday morning in northeast Oklahoma.
The afternoon surface analysis reveals weak cold front to our north and west. Given this leaned a little cooler in some cases than the operational NBM and more toward the experimental NBM. By Friday night we should see some relenting of the low level stratus deck, but still some concerns for lingering clouds. It would seem that SME/LOZ would see the least affect from this low stratus at this point.
123 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Cloudy and cool with highs in the low to mid 60s.
313 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Cloudy and cool with highs in the low to mid 60s.
An inverted trough near the Bahamas will push westward to the Florida peninsula on Friday and with deep moisture over the area.
207 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Broad upper level and surface ridging has been pushed northward over the mid-Atlantic states as a trough of low pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico moves slowly westward.
Upper level ridging will also help keep conditions mostly dry throughout the near-term forecast period.
TWH Clear and dry conditions exist across the cwa as we are in a col region, with a four-corners low, strong ridging over the PacNW and southeast CONUS, and troffing to our northeast. This is still a little cooler than normal. This low will keep temps cooler in our east again Friday (around 70F for a high), but a shift to downslope NW winds should push temps to the upper 70s and low 80s in our west. That said, one change in the latest model runs that raises a little concern, is that the low is progged to deepen as it moves into South Dakota, therefore we will continue to keep a close eye on this system as is moves northeast over the next couple of days.
Collar (Issued 230 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020) Friday night through Thursday: The cut-off low over the Intermountain West today will begin to shift E/NE and open up as it enters the plains on Friday. High pressure to our north today kicks east and winds begin to shift back to the south as the low approaches. This will setup an increasing WAA event as the low to the west nears the region.
This low will keep temperatures cooler in our east again Friday (around 70F for a high) but a shift to downslope winds should push temps to the upper 70s and lower 80s in our west.
Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight ahead of this trough, with rain showers developing late tonight over the southwestern CWA, then spreading east through the day Friday into Friday evening.
Some attention will be given to determining chances for rain on Friday as an upper level low moves into the region. Upper level flow highlighted this morning by a longwave trough centered over the Great Lakes and a closed low centered over the Four Corners. A warmer 850mb air mass continues to slowly push east over the region.
Region remains under overall weak upper ridging, but periphery of said upper ridging also remains riddled with weak impulses and waves while the ridge itself not providing any meaningful subsidence or suppression.
Overall, look for a bit warmer lows tonight over the E/SE (70-73) with some upper 60s holding on one more night over the N/NW.
302 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift east and take control of our weather through the first half of the weekend.
Upper low ejected from the Four Corners area this morning is headed toward Minnesota and only a few mid-level clouds may brush the SE zones with it's passing late tomorrow.
The cloudy skies and precipitation have helped to keep the temperatures on the cooler side that we had to drop this afternoon's high temps a few degrees. Tonight's low temperatures will be slightly warmer than this morning as we start to lose some of the cold advection. Expect another cool but slightly warmer day on Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s.
Heading into Friday and the upcoming weekend, onshore flow may increase in the lower levels to improve conditions slightly near the surface.
239 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 As of early this afternoon, 500mb height analysis indicates the center of the vertically stacked low pressure system is located near KGJT. To the east and southeast of the low pressure center, morning overcast skies have scattered out. Overall however, surface temperatures will remain at or slightly above freezing today even at pass- level. The broad upper-level low pressure system is progged to lift northward and eventually become re-captured by the mid latitude jet stream. with highs running 10-12 degrees warmer than Thursday. Some freezing temperatures may affect the lower Yampa and White River valleys.
An upper level low currently situated over western Colorado will continue to slowly lift north and east through the period. This low is progged to be positioned across western Nebraska/eastern Wyoming by Friday morning. As the low approaches the area overnight, precipitation chances look to increase from west to east. This precipitation will all fall as liquid rain, as persistent warm air advection aloft will help to keep the vertical column above freezing below H5. Will also have to watch for the potential for some lingering showers behind the primary line as the trough axis passes through, so have left some lower end POPs across the northern CWA Friday afternoon/evening to account for this.
The subtropical ridge across the Southeast weakens into the weekend as an inverted 500mb trough across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico heads west. As the inverted trough works west, tropical moisture increases across Louisiana into Friday night.
Friday the upper level low center will be positions near the Black Hills in South Dakota and drier and warmer air will rotate in. Cloud ceilings for all the airport sites through most of the time period will hover between IFR and MVFR conditions as an upper level low in western Colorado slowly moves to the north and east.
A weak cold front will push south of the area later tonight.