Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front pushes through later this morning, with isolated to scattered convection east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors. Cooler today and tonight. Temperatures will be cooler today by 5-7 degrees across the board.
As the upper low slowly drifts east through Colorado and fills a bit, we will just see some showers affecting mainly areas along the MT/WY border including the Big Horns region and SE corner of Montana. No significant impacts are anticipated with just an inch or so of snowfall at the higher elevations possible. The western half of our CWA (including Billings) will be dry and warmer today as 500mb ridge builds into the area from the west.
322 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022 Aside from a bit of cirrus streaming in from the west and stratus to our south, latest satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region with current observations showing light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Shortly after daybreak, should see cloud cover begin to gradually increase ahead of an advancing upper level trough over the Rockies. However, given that soundings remain largely dry in the lowest levels through late morning, will likely not see coverage pick up until later this afternoon and evening. Lows during this time should remain fairly mild, as values only fall into the low to mid 40s under cloudy skies.
A stalled boundary draped across our northwest will pull in some low clouds and bring isolated showers and can't rule out the chance for one or two storms mainly along and north of the Highway 82 corridor this afternoon. Mid level ridging will begin to build in today across the Lower Mississippi Valley behind a wave pushing across the upper portions of the Midwest. With ridging in play, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s. High pressure will keep us warm through much of the night as temperatures will only fall into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees for some areas across the west.
654 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will drag a cold/occluded front through Central PA through the day. High pressure turns it dry Wednesday night and lasts into Thursday.
As a closed upper low continues to approach from the west and isentropic lift increases, expect low clouds will expand and precipitation will push in form the west through this morning with fairly good coverage by this afternoon with some rumbles of thunder as well. By the time precipitation ends late Thursday expect precipitation totals to range from an inch or more across southeast Nebraska, to less than one tenth inch up around the Pine Ridge. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid/upper 30s with highs Thursday ranging from around 60 in the panhandle to the lower 50s further east.
The 500mb low across western CO this morning will shift across KS during the day Thursday, while pushing a trough across our area.
1020 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Upper level ridging builds today drying the area out, followed by another front Thursday night.
With upper level ridging dominating, expect mild conditions across the region, today.
710 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will drag a cold/occluded front through Central PA through the day. High pressure turns it dry Wednesday night and lasts into Thursday.
Rain and cooler temperatures will return on Thursday and persist through the weekend, mainly across Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. An upper ridge over the area today will bring more warm temperatures to the interior, with some valley locations reaching the mid to possibly upper 80s. A broad upper trough will dig along the Pacific Coast late in the week, with periods of rain returning, mainly across the N half of the area.
Warmer temperatures expected today, rising into the upper 80s to low 90s west of I-95 and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. At this time, the highest coverage of storms will be in rural south-central FL and TEMPO groups for the Treasure Coast may be dropped if the sea breeze moves inland quickly. The latest models indicate the potential for fog late tonight and Thursday morning, with the highest probabilities from just south of KISM/KMCO to in vicinity of KVRB/KFPR/KSUA.
and Thursday High pressure brought mostly clear skies and decreasing winds overnight. High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will continue to draw very dry air into northeast WI for the next few days. Expect relative humidity to drop into the 20 to 30 percent range in the sandy soil areas each day, with the lowest values over northern WI. Lows tonight should drop into the lower to middle 30s. On Thursday, highs will reach into the lower to middle 60s, except lower to middle 50s lakeside.
551 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022 A mid-level trough currently over the Four Corners region will slide east today, throwing the mid-Mississippi Valley into southwesterly flow as the trough moves into the central Plains. The mid-level trough will approach the mid-Mississippi Valley Thursday, mirrored at the surface by a low. An attendant warm front will lift north into the forecast area during the day Thursday, eventually stalling near the I-70 corridor. While some uncertainty still remains, model guidance continues to trend instability downward as the low approaches the region and most guidance is indicating less than 500 J/kg of instability will be available for thunderstorm development. The minimal instability south of the warm front will be enough to generate a few thunderstorms amid the ongoing showers.
Some low end CAPE values also show up this afternoon mainly in response to the cold pool aloft which will cause 'some' instability and though it's on the low side of things, a rumble or two of thunder can't be ruled out. Plenty of clouds are expected today and with northerly flow ushering in cooler air, high temps will drop to below seasonal normals. High pressure builds in on Thursday bringing a return to mostly sunny skies and the start of a run of what looks to be the warmest temperatures of spring to date.
Wednesday will feature another warm afternoon across the interior while onshore flow, low clouds and cooler temperatures return to the coast. High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the weather across our region today as 850 mb temperatures reach 15-17 deg C.
627 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will build north of the region today, bringing cool air on northeast winds.
Fair weather is expected today throughout the Northern Rockies, with afternoon temperatures slightly warmer than what was experienced yesterday. Thursday will be another warm day, if not warmer than today, especially for the valleys in western Montana. There will be an increase in southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front, that will bring widespread showers to the region in the late afternoon for north-central Idaho and closer to the evening hours for western Montana.
613 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Upper level ridging builds today drying the area out, followed by another front Thursday night.
/issued 425 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The mid-level ridge of high pressure across Mexico edges east into the Gulf through Thursday, with the next 500mb trough working into the Plains. As low pressure deepens across the Plains into this afternoon, expect southeasterly winds to once again become breezy to windy. At the moment, conditions appear to stay below Wind Advisory criteria across the lower to mid valley, however, if sufficient mixing occurs early enough, a brief Wind Advisory may be needed. Temperatures are expected to generally remain in the low 90s with mid to upper 70s overnight. As mid level flow turns more southwesterly on Thursday, expect highs a few degrees warmer.
Today the majority of the area will remain dry as a transitory upper ridge moves just to the north of the area. High temperatures today will range from the low 70s to mid 80s. Upper ridging will depart to the east this evening and diffluent flow aloft will increase out ahead of the next system just east of the Rockies. An upper low is forecast track east-northeast across the Plains while an attendant cold front will advance southeastward towards the Mid_South on Thursday. Surface-based convection will be possible mainly across areas of North MS southward along and ahead of the cold front as it advances southeast.
The resulting NEly sfc wind flow conts to bring cooler/drier air into much of the state. Weak ridge aloft acrs the Mid-South wl cont to shift to the E today, as an upper low moves fm the central Rockies into the Plains States.
This air mass isn't necessarily cooler behind the front, but will be a more continental, dry air mass.
A weak trough over the Bahamas has promoted enough upper level divergence to support vigorous scattered shower and thunderstorm activity off the east coast of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic waters will retreat further eastward ahead of an upper level trough pushing across the eastern United States.
Cool below normal temperatures for today with surface warm front to remain south of the KS/OK border and overcast skies. The upper level low pressure center will move very slowly eastward across Kansas on Thursday with wrap around precipitation lingering over central Kansas. Otherwise, the precipitation will taper off Thursday night as main upper low shifts east into Mississippi valley region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The mid-level ridge of high pressure across Mexico edges east into the Gulf through Thursday, with the next 500mb trough working into the Plains. As low pressure deepens across the Plains into this afternoon, expect southeasterly winds to once again become breezy to windy. At the moment, conditions appear to stay below Wind Advisory criteria across the lower to mid valley, however, if sufficient mixing occurs early enough, a brief Wind Advisory may be needed. Temperatures are expected to generally remain in the low 90s with mid to upper 70s overnight. As mid level flow turns more southwesterly on Thursday, expect highs a few degrees warmer.
This means that 80s are likely in warmer valleys west of the Cascades, including the Rogue Valley. The warm, dry conditions will be short-lived as a warm front reaches the coast Thursday morning and brings windy, wet weather to most areas from the Cascades west.
501 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Current surface map places low over southeast Colorado with inverted trof through eastern Wyoming. Upper low is located over western Colorado, with broad area of lift spreading showers into southwest South Dakota. Upper low track into the Central Plains today, with forecast area on northern edge of best forcing. Showers shift south and east of the area tonight as the upper low slowly moves to the east.
632 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022 Aside from a bit of cirrus streaming in from the west and stratus to our south, latest satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region with current observations showing light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Shortly after daybreak, should see cloud cover begin to gradually increase ahead of an advancing upper level trough over the Rockies. However, given that soundings remain largely dry in the lowest levels through late morning, will likely not see coverage pick up until later this afternoon and evening. Lows during this time should remain fairly mild, as values only fall into the low to mid 40s under cloudy skies.
820 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will build north of the region today, bringing cool air on northeast winds.
06z data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a developing storm system in the southern Rockies. After sunrise the quiet but cool conditions will continue through sunset as the high moves into the Great Lakes and clouds slowly increase.
A cold front is currently draped across the area, identified by a slight dewpoint gradient, a weak wind shift, and light reflectivity returns on radar from Carter County to Meigs County. Don't have any rain mentioned this morning as coverage is sparse and most of it should be mainly in the higher terrain. Cold front pushes through later this morning, with isolated to scattered convection east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors. Cooler today and tonight. Temperatures will be cooler today by 5-7 degrees across the board.
307 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Weak low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will track south of Nova Scotia tonight as a cold front moves through.
A cold front is currently draped across the area, identified by a slight dewpoint gradient, a weak wind shift, and light reflectivity returns on radar from Carter County to Meigs County. Cold front pushes through later this morning, with isolated to scattered convection east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors. Cooler today and tonight. Temperatures will be cooler today by 5-7 degrees across the board.
357 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Other than scattered to broken cirrus streaming over the area, surface ridging over Lake Superior has yielded a tranquil day. Expect another mainly clear night tonight with temperatures falling back to a degree or two either side of freezing. The overall airmass will be a couple of degrees warmer yielding high temperatures closer to normal (low/mid 60s) across the interior. Closer to the Lakes, lake breezes will yield cooler conditions.
However, the atmosphere is beginning to dry out as the upper- level ridge also continues to propagate eastward.
204 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 A cold front will move east across the region into tonight. Behind the front high pressure will build into our area tonight into Thursday.
Look for temps well into the 60s and near 70F for all but far southeast MT where clouds and cooler air will linger longest. As the upper low slowly drifts east through Colorado and fills a bit, we will just see some showers affecting mainly areas along the MT/WY border including the Big Horns region and SE corner of Montana. No significant impacts are anticipated with around an inch of snowfall at the higher elevations possible. The western half of our CWA (including Billings) will be dry and warmer today as 500mb ridge builds into the area. The ridge will then prevail tonight through Thursday over our region. BT Conditions will trend cooler and wetter during this period as a broad upper trough moves into western North America and then deepens.
1215 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 Cool below normal temperatures for today with surface warm front to remain south of the KS/OK border and overcast skies. The upper level low pressure center will move very slowly eastward across Kansas on Thursday with wrap around precipitation lingering over central Kansas. Otherwise, the precipitation will taper off Thursday night as main upper low shifts east into Mississippi valley region.
108 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will build north of the region today, bringing cool air on northeast winds.
218 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 A slow moving area of low pressure will exit the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure over eastern Canada will then guarantee fair dry weather through at least Thursday.
This afternoon, the location of the warm front and how far north it progresses into eastern Oklahoma will be critical regarding the afternoon and early evening severe weather potential, most notably the tornado threat. Renewed convection may also develop overnight along the advancing cold front and accelerate eastward through any yet overturned instability.
1250 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 Aside from a bit of cirrus streaming in from the west and stratus to our south, latest satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region with current observations showing light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Shortly after daybreak, should see cloud cover begin to gradually increase ahead of an advancing upper level trough over the Rockies. However, given that soundings remain largely dry in the lowest levels through late morning, will likely not see coverage pick up until later this afternoon and evening. Lows during this time should remain fairly mild, as values only fall into the low to mid 40s under cloudy skies.
Today and Thursday: GOES water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to showcase a closed mid/upper low centered over Colorado and southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Thursday should continue to be on the cooler-than-average side of climatology, topping out in the mid-to-upper 50's.
Later tonight, models have also been developing a line of thunderstorms as the cold front moves south through the area, affecting areas mainly north and east of a San Angelo to Junction line late tonight after midnight.
19Z water vapor imagery depicts the upper low slowly moving from the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies with a low-amplitude ridge behind it over the western CONUS. These should increase in coverage as we head into the evening and overnight hours as vorticity advects into the area from the upper low and provides an added source of lift, and Pwats increase to near or above the 90th percentile of climatology.
Southerly winds have picked up a bit during the day today as high pressure has been pulling away from the region. Clouds overnight should help keep temps near the SD border in the low 40s. Not much will change for tomorrow and tomorrow night, with decent southerly winds as a trough to our west strengthens, and a fair amount of cloudiness across at least our southern counties as the upper low moves from the Central Plains into MO/IA. Upper air pattern becomes more SW over the weekend as the region settles between an upstream trough and downstream eastern ridge.
Do not expect much warming as the low clouds continue to linger. Have the highest pops during the evening through early morning hours.
A cold front is expected to sweep through the Panhandles early this evening as an upper upper low moves from south-central colorado to southeast Colorado. This cold front should sweep the low level moisture and any showers and storms off to the southeast this evening. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across the northeast half of the CWA on the west side of the upper level low as it moves across southwest and south-central Kansas.
A pleasant day on Thursday across Southeast Michigan as lake aggregate high pressure remains in place over Southeast Michigan. Upper level jet streak is forecasted to remain along the south side of the upper level low that will slow the occlusion process with the upper level low as a whole in addition to keeping it south of Lower Michigan.
Finally, an southward moving cold front will start to move into the Big Country later tonight and storms may develop along this boundary as well, although that depends on what has happened earlier in the day and how much instability has been effected by earlier storms. Otherwise, lots of cloud cover today so temperatures will be kept a little cooler than yesterday.
237 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will drag a cold/occluded front east through the Susquehanna Valley this afternoon accompanied by numerous showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High pressure turns it dry Wednesday night and lasts into Thursday.
Highest precip chances are south of the CWA as an upper low slides through to the south. Clouds will start to gradually clear out overnight in the western part of the CWA as dry air moves in behind the upper low.
248 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure located over the southern high Plains, with inverted trough stretching north into central and parts of the northern high Plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over CO, with positively tilted trough extending from the southern Rockies into the central and northern high Plains. Upper low to the southwest of the region will move slowly east across CO and much of KS over the next 24 hours. Warming trend takes place for late week into the first half of the weekend as upper trough moves well east of the region and is replaced by a relatively flat and mainly dry ridge from the Rockies into the Plains.
224 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 A cold front will move east across the region into tonight. Behind the front high pressure will build into our area tonight into Thursday.
1115 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Current surface map places low over southeastern Colorado with inverted trof through eastern Wyoming. Upper low is located over western Colorado, with broad area of lift spreading showers into southwest South Dakota. Upper low track into the Central Plains today, with forecast area on northern edge of best forcing. Showers shift south and east of the area tonight as the upper low slowly moves to the east.
This will likely have an impact on the track of the upper low as it tracks eastward Thursday. On Thursday, as mentioned, the upper low will track to the east across Kansas.
126 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Upper level ridging builds today drying the area out, followed by another front Thursday night.
Lowered winds a little due to high pressure ridge over eastern part of the CWA. The 500mb low across western CO this morning will shift across KS during the day Thursday, while pushing a trough across our area.
Dry and warmer today as a Pacific upper ridge comes inland.
However, the upper low to the south will slow down a bit and back the low to mid levels a bit more to out of the east, advecting higher moisture air into locations along and south of I- 90. Better moisture aloft will wrap around the low during the afternoon hours, finally saturating the dendritic growth zone and creating more widespread rain. Winds stay on the lighter side at around 10 mph out of the east but could see some gusts upwards to 15-20 mph along the highway-20 corridor.
SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Warm front is currently lifting north near the I-40 corridor with upper 60s to near 70 dew-points extending south down to the Red River. (Thursday through Wednesday) Still a little uncertainty regarding how much atmosphere can destabilize behind main convection line and ahead of approaching cold front, but the overall heavy rain threat should begin to shift east of the region by late afternoon.
And That's about it in the way of sensible weather today thanks to a short lived ridge. Compared to today afternoon highs will be about 20 degrees cooler and with gusty winds most everywhere except the more sheltered west side valleys, it could feel a bit colder yet.
Precip is mainly supported on the north and northwest side of the low due to some frontogenetical forcing, so placement of the low will play a role. The upper level low will cross through central KS tomorrow and the exact track of the low has come into better agreement in the models. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than today but still only in the 50s, with northerly winds gusting to around 20-25 mph.
335 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure over the Catskill Mtns of New York will drag its swwd trailing cold front southeast across Susquehanna Valley this afternoon and evening accompanied by a shower in some spots. High pressure sliding by to our north will bring dry conditions tonight through Thursday.
1204 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will drag a cold/occluded front east through the Susquehanna Valley this afternoon accompanied by numerous showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High pressure turns it dry Wednesday night and lasts into Thursday.
339 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Other than scattered to broken cirrus streaming over the area, surface ridging over Lake Superior has yielded a tranquil day. Expect another mainly clear night tonight with temperatures falling back to a degree or two either side of freezing. The overall airmass will be a couple of degrees warmer yielding high temperatures closer to normal (low/mid 60s) across the interior. Closer to the Lakes, lake breezes will yield cooler conditions. A low pressure system is still progged to track through the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys at the end of the week, but this will have no impact on the UP.