Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
935 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2016 Satellite imagery this evening shows upper level low center now moving onto the WA coast with weakly diffluent SW flow aloft ahead of it spreading across the Northern Rockies. A weak upper level low moving into western WA as of 00z/21 will move across Montana on Tuesday, sending a cold front across the area late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Given similarities to yesterday, expect isolated showers to continue to pop up here or there through the late afternoon and early evening, with weak updrafts kicking off from remnant outflows, but nothing substantial is expected given paltry shear values with the expansive ridge in place over the Southern Plains. For the remainder of the week, short-range guidance remains in decent agreement, synoptically, with the broad 500mb ridge continuing to churn around the Four Corners to the Southern Plains.
Expect light south winds overnight, with temperatures falling into the lower 70s. The subtropical ridge will be the main player by Tuesday, with large scale subsidence increasing over the region.
The mid level ridge that has been dominating in past days will shift southward toward the northern Gulf coast states tonight/Tuesday, allowing the flow aloft to become more northwesterly. Right now, it looks as though the higher chances will lie along/just north of the sfc boundary.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 90 70 94 / 0 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 85 68 90 / 10 40 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 67 85 68 90 / 10 40 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 65 87 / 20 50 40 40.
Isold -shra/tsra near the higher terrain of the western and northern mountains will be mainly dry and lead to gusty outflow winds and lcl bldu. The center of strong high pressure aloft will wobble over and near New Mexico keeping the area very warm to hot through the week and likely beyond.
Upper level ridging influences will provide for partly cloudy skies through tonight. Surface riding pattern will be defined by high pressure influences across the southeast U.
843 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Dry high pressure will build across the area tonight. High pressure will build across the area tonight.
931 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 A cold front over the western part of the area will push off to the east tonight then weak high pressure will build over the region tuesday.
Ridge centered over the Rockies into the Central Plains is continuing the deep layer easterly flow over the CWA. The ridge will sink south bringing hotter temps for the end of the week. An inverted trof will move west from the Gulf of Mexico under the ridge.
901 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2016 Building high pressure brings a return of above average temperatures to interior NorCal this week. Temperatures are running a little warmer this evening than last night but have been cooling off fairly nicely. The region will remain between the strong high pressure to the southeast and low pressure area over the northwest.
1229 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will sink south across the area overnight and weak high pressure will build over the region tuesday.
Route 24 early this morning as a cold front moves through the area.
753 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 A cold front will move down from the Upper Great Lakes overnight.
Therefore cannot rule out a few severe storms in the afternoon as the elevated warm front presses northward. This adds up to the lowest storms threat southwest, Chamberlain to Pickstown, and coverage northwest which will be a little greater than the southwest but not as great as over northwest IA.
An area of strong high pressure centered over the Four Corners region will remain in place through midweek and the very hot conditions will continue across the area.
Ridging is building in from the N/NE with lower PW's just NE of the area. Due to this, temps will be lower in the E with slightly warmer lows in the west. Went closer to a warmer MOS to account for current dewpoint trends. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UPPER RIDGE SEEMS TO KEEP IT AT BAY.
Expect mainly clear skies this evening thanks to high pressure over the region; however, cloudiness will increase late tonight in advance of the next system which could bring a threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening to portions of northeast Montana.
1052 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 A cold front will move down from the Upper Great Lakes overnight and become nearly stationary near the Maryland border on Tuesday.
VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period as the upper ridge further exerts control over the region. Some CU will redevelop by around 21/15Z, but convection will be more sparse on Tuesday afternoon with the upper ridge pulling in more dry air aloft. All of this convection the result of a weak upper-level trough across east Texas. Low temperatures to night forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Upper trough to remain in place allowing for another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. However, overall trend is for 700mb trough across east Texas to gradually weaken as 500mb ridge strengthens across the region through the remainder of the workweek.
Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over the four corners area, with ridge building again across the Northern Rockies and high plains. Low pressure remains off the Pacific NW coast. Very warm temperatures return for Tuesday as boundary lifts back northward into the area as a warm front. An upper level disturbance and an advancing cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially across northern portions of the cwa. Frontal boundary lifts north into the area as a warm front on Tuesday, as low pressure develops over far northeast WY/far southeast MT. Highs will rise back into the 90s across much of the plains as southerly winds bring warmer and moister air into the area.
The first chance for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest.
803 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 A cold front will move down from the Upper Great Lakes overnight and become nearly stationary near the Maryland border on Tuesday.
Beaches were interesting as we had a very rapid spike in temps early on with LAX climbing to 95 around 930 am, and by 10 am it had dropped to 77 before climbing back up to the low 80s in the afternoon. Winds actually got a little earlier start today and with temps almost 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and humidities down to almost 10 percent that's certainly a big threat to the fire there. The push will include much cooler air at lower levels that should bring high temps down 10-15 degrees across LA/Ventura coast/valleys Tuesday.
Global models show development along the synoptic cold front to our north and west this afternoon and this activity would move across our area tonight with the front. The synoptic cold front lies across KS and will slowly move this direction given its nearly parallel orientation to the flow aloft. More storms will develop along the true cold front off to the north and west this afternoon, and these storms will affect the region tonight.
227 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
The strong trough the swept past the northern half of the area yesterday pushed a dry cold front through as well. Broad weak troughiness will persist this weekend and another closed low will develop over southwest Arizona and southern California.
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Several disturbances ahead of a cold frontal boundary currently extending from Minnesota southward through Oklahoma will be the main features over the upcoming day. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s in the moist air mass ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front should finally move through the rest of the state Saturday evening.
High pressure center over the Carolinas is pushing an easterly flow into the forecast area. Easterly winds will persist as high pressure remains. An approaching cold front form the west will bring a chance of showers tomorrow morning for KTCL that may spread eastward late tomorrow morning.
The upper level low in the Dakotas is keeping gusty northwest winds in place in eastern Montana. The low is slowly shifting eastward. as upper level high pressure builds over the region. Eastward movement of the low will allow winds in the east to taper off. the exiting low and building ridge will will allow for improved mixing in the west. Gusty westerly winds will spread across the region Saturday as the low continues to shift east. and ridging takes control of the region.
320 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
Again, upper level flow is expected to become increasingly swly as the weekend progresses, until finally an upper level trough moves thru the mid state region by early on Mon. Dry conditions with temps closer to seasonal normal values at least thru the first part of next work week, but temps should once again warm to to above seasonal normal values, as ridging influences sfc and aloft build into the region, but sfc ridging influences eventually shift ewd as next work week progresses. On Saturday, an approaching trough will bring showers into the CKV area around 15Z. Also, south winds will increase to 10G18KT across the area as the trough approaches from the west.
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
302 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will move southeast of the region through Saturday.
320 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 An upper ridge continues to bring hot summer time temperatures to the Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 90s. The ridge will break down tonight which will allow a cold front to push into the Mid-South over the weekend.
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.
Tonight Through Saturday A weak upper level low pressure trough will bring some mountain showers and isolated evening thunderstorms tonight otherwise dry conditions are expected. Dry high pressure will move in behind the trough with clearing and slightly cooler temperatures Saturday with isolated showers in the northwest mountains.
High temps will be cooler tomorrow due to clouds and rain climbing to the mid to upper 80s for most inland areas and middle 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will also be warmer than the last couple of nights falling to the lower to middle 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Cold front moving through the southeast Texas Panhandle will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Our focus will then turn to the short wave trough moving southeast from the Central Rockies onto the plains for Saturday. This short wave trough moves across western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle during the afternoon on Saturday.
High pressure building over Central and Southwest Montana will keep skies mostly clear with widespread VFR conditions expected through early Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon winds aloft will increase ahead of an incoming Pacific storm system with an associated cold front passing through the region Saturday night.
659 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure moves to our east tonight, then a cold front slowly moves through the region this weekend.
Water vapor imagery depicts the low over east central ND, but at the sfc the pattern is much weaker, and it is hard to pick out much. Upper level low to weaken during the day and become more of an open trough by this evening. It does appear there is a time period from mid to late afternoon when a dry slot at the sfc will work into west central MN mainly Fergus Falls area and enough clearing may occur for some heating to allow sfc temps to reach lower 70s and with cooler air aloft moving in and favored location on southeast side of the upper low there is a risk of a few strong t-storms.
More seasonal temperatures are likely today as cooler air filters southward into western Kansas behind the advancing cold front. Even with the help of decreasing cloud cover by this afternoon, look for highs only up into the mid to upper 70s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 80s(F) in south central Kansas ahead of the frontal boundary.
-Howerton Hit-or-miss clusters of showers/thunderstorms will affect the forecast area today, as a cold front approaches from the north and subtle upper waves approach from the west/southwest. Furthermore, weak isentropic ascent ahead of upper energy approaching from the west should allow for at least widely scattered showers/storms to eventually develop this morning over south-central and southeast KS ahead of the cold front. Thinking the convectively-reinforced cold front will tend to race southeast today faster than what NAM/GFS depict, limiting afternoon/evening thunderstorm redevelopment across the forecast area. This scenario is supported by the RAP and HRRR, and makes sense given current southward speed of outflow/cold front. Five-star weather expected across much of the area Saturday, as high pressure settles south in wake of the cold front.
High pressure will produce one more warm and dry evening.
403 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure will keep a wedge in place over our area tonight. By Saturday, high pressure will still be located in the area with Tropical Depression Julia stuck offshore of South Carolina.
200 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low moving east over the Northern Plains. A cold front extends south from the closed low across the plains. Tonight the clear weather will continue until the overnight hours when an upper level short wave trough will be develop over East Central Colorado. Am not very optimistic for rainfall due to the weak lift associated with the short wave trough. Am expecting storms to develop along the surface feature as the short wave trough deepens overhead. Storm activity will increase during the late afternoon as the short wave trough continues to deepen overhead and instability increases.
The surface cold front has exited the state to the south this evening and a ridge of high pressure has settled across most of the state, resulting in nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies. The mid and upper level trough will move off to the northeast across the Red River Valley of the North by Friday afternoon.
High pressure ridging is bringing a return to above normal temperatures today. Most locations are 2 to 7 degrees warmer.
236 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Mostly clear conditions and light winds will persist through the weekend as high pressure develops.
A cold front arriving on Saturday will bring breezy conditions and a good chance for rain, especially to the Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle.
614 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely at times over the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Ridging is expected to move east of the area this evening as an upper trough and associated surface cold front advances out of the Midwest.
302 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Surface map at 2 pm had a cold front extending from central Upper Michigan through central WI. Broken band of showers/thunderstorms ongoing along this cold front. Area will be in between departing cold front and mid-level closed low approaching from the Northern Plains. but stratus circulating around the aforementioned closed low and winds staying in the 5- 10mph range should hold off fog formation. closed low will be filling as it tracks into Ontario. A ridge of high pressure drifts across the region Saturday night for mostly clear skies. to the lower 50s elsewhere.
322 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Satellite and observations show that the low clouds from this morning have moved to the southeast. Surface analysis has the cold front to the east of the forecast area and winds are from the northwest this afternoon.
Combined with deep tropical moisture already in place and expected daytime heating, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with the best chances along and east of the Highway 281/Interstate 69C corridor. Streamer shower activity will affect mainly the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight, with a few cells possibly sneaking onshore and affecting the immediate three coastal counties. Tomorrow, 500 mb high pressure building directly over the southern half of Texas will produce only isolated convection, generated mainly by the daytime heating and deep tropical moisture combination again.
415 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Latest surface analysis continue to show the ridge axis from northeast CONUS to northeast Gulf, more or less between Julia and broad area of low pressure over west gulf/Texas coast. Upper air analysis a weak ridge axis from Baja California to Florida. Southwest flow was present from Southwest CONUS to Great Lakes and positively tilted trough axis from Minnesota to Southern California.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates that the upper level ridge axis is beginning to shift to the east with a trough moving eastward across the Northern Plains. Radar returns are currently limited to areas across the higher elevations where there is some additional orographic lift. With the higher low-level moisture in place, patchy fog will be possible later tonight near sunrise. A cold front will move into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi River valleys late in the day.
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Diminishing rain chances and warmer temperatures on Saturday highlight the short term. As the upper low finally kicks out of the state late this evening, expect gradual clearing to take place from west to east. Behind the low, winds will become somewhat breezy from the northwest this afternoon, especially in the south. A brief period of upper level ridging will occur over the region on Saturday, bringing mostly sunny skies and above average highs in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations even may see the low 80s.
On Saturday, mid and upper level ridging will begin to build over the region.
Highs were raised a degree or 2, with most locations expected to reach the lower 90s, except mid 80s Plateau. On Saturday, an approaching trough will bring showers into the CKV area around 15Z. Also, south winds will increase to 10G18KT across the area as the trough approaches from the west.
551 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Still expect showers and thunderstorms to continue through most of the night as there will be strong low level moisture convergence across much of the area ahead of a mid level trough currently over KS/OK. The trough will pass to the east on Saturday morning, but the cold front will still be over the northern part of the CWA. Britt (Saturday Night) Isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder remains possible during the evening hours along and ahead of the cold front. slightly cooler and drier (lower dewpoints) air will filter into the bi-state area. Low temperatures certainly look cooler than the previous few nights.
258 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 The wedge/local northeaster continues along our coast as the ridge flows down around Tropical Storm Julia to our northeast.
1129 AM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Current water vapor imagery loop showed the upper low/trough moving across the north/central Great Plains, with active convection firing along a surface cold front from the Upper Midwest to the Lower Missouri valley. There is good agreement with the short range model guidance, with eastward progression of the upper trough toward the Upper Midwest today. Upper ridge will gradually shift east from the northern Rockies to the northern Great Plains during the next 24 to 36 hours.
This evening and mainly overnight, additional showers and storms may develop in the Texas Panhandle as a cold front continues to moves lowly southward and 85h flow increases.
Temperatures have risen into the lower to middle 90s across most areas.
314 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 A trough over the Northern Plains with a negative tilt will continue to trot eastward today. The cold front associated with this wave is currently positioned from northeast to south central Kansas and into the Panhandles. Forecast challenge - Precipitation for this evening and tonight as the cold front pushes southeast. A ridge moves in for Saturday which will bring a pleasant day across the Plains.
From late Wed night through Thu night, a significant trough is expected to push through the northern Rockies and the northern Great Basin.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a trough dropping down from central Canada and terminating in a closed low over the Dakotas. A ridge exists over the Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains. This afternoon through Saturday: Ridge across the area will form ahigh pressure chinook overnight and then drop south.
208 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 An upper level disturbance and associated cold front across Northern Plains will track slowly east to the northern Great Lakes tonight. Upper level ridge axis will shift east of the area this morning. For tonight, amplified upper trough across the Northern Plains will shift to the northern great Lakes with a pre-frontal trough/warm front type feature expected to focus a period of more substantial moisture profiles. Will keep mid to high chance PoPs going into the afternoon with approach of low level cold front. For Saturday night, maintained chance thunder PoPs especially southeast portion of the forecast area with cold frontal boundary expected to slow its southeast progress due to dampening of Great Lakes upper wave.
/issued 239 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ West to southwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday as upper level troughing remains across much of the northern and western half of the nation. In addition convective chances will be enhanced later today and tonight by a southward moving cold front that is forecast to move south and west from the Panhandles and stretch from the central Permian Basin to western New Mexico later tonight.
The ridge that kept us dry yesterday will be east of the region today. West of I-65 looks to have the best chance, as that area will see the higher moisture first. Highs for the day should be in the low/mid 80s, depending on cloud cover's persistence through the day.
The main trough axis is expected to approach from the west during the day, but will likely only result in some increased cloudiness. Temps will remain mild ahead of the trough, in the mid 70s west to around 80 east.
250 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will extend from off the New England coast southwest through the Middle Atlantic states, including NC through Saturday. A cold front will approach from the NW late in the weekend. Even though high pressure aloft and at the surface will begin to break-down, expect generally dry conditions to persist, with only isolated shower or two possible across the far eastern zones given the continued potential for outer bands of Julia to move onshore. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.
433 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Southerly winds on the west side of a high pressure system pushing eastward will allow an increase in humidity overnight and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A muggy weekend is in store with occasional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will be slow to advance through the Ohio Valley. Mid level ridging is pulling eastward as the isentropically driven storms approach the area on the backside of the departing high. first with some pre- frontal development and increasing LLJ and then ahead of the slow moving cold front for Saturday night.
Deep layered ridging aloft is maintaining weak lower level instability and ample dry air aloft.
307 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 More breaks in the clouds helped early afternoon temperatures warm up into the lower 80s over much of the area. Areas behind a cold front, from Freeport to Iowa City and points to the northwest, were generally in the 70s. A broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop along the cold front, near and just west of the Mississippi River. Expect near normal highs from the low to mid 70s north, to near 80 degrees south.