Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
The weak system will shift eastward tonight, with high pressure rapidly amplifying off the California coast.
200 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK THEN A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK. THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. PREFER WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS/COOL MOS BIAS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH.
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MONTANA.
WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES WARMING UP ENOUGH FREEZING TO HAVE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.
Storms that form near, or are able to tap into the backed surface winds along the warm front may have a bit greater threat of tornadoes.
342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR BISMARCK AT 20 UTC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY MID EVENING AND TO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED.
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MODEST LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG ALONG A COLD FRONT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS WEDNESDAY.
MODEL INDICATIONS ARE TOMORROW WILL FEATURE A LITTLE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT A WENT JUST A LITTLE UNDER GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD CONCERNS WITH A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
227 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PRECEDED BY A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY SOUTH OF WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. DO NOT THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COOLING BY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD ALLOW ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE QUICKLY TO SNOW.
434 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KGUY AND KDHT BY MID MORNING TOMORROW BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. /ISSUED 415 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP MAXIMA TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST. AS JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH QUICKLY-MOVING TROF AXIS ABOVE REGION OF MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW.
AND INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE W-NW AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 13-15Z. ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO SHOW SCATTERED OR EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAVORED SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW TO BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS TODAY.
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY RAIN. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
/ISSUED 1028 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE AND THETA-E GRADIENT CURRENTLY HUNG UP BETWEEN MIA AND FLL. MAX T SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS TO START THE DAY.
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH HAS HELPED INCREASE WINDS TO ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN.
MODEST COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY MID MORNING WITH GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/ BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. EASTERN ZONES WITH A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAIL OFF A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER OKLAHOMA SKIRTS THIS AREA. RMCQUEEN A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DELIVER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS HAS CREATED LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WHEN WAVE TROUGH HITS GROUND. WARM FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN A WARM FRONT BEGINS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
318 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS PROVIDED FOR VERY PLEASANT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES MUCH MORE STABLE WITH STORMS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE MID SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE DAY. LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CTRL-ERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. BRINGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING. AN INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SET UP ALONG A LINE FROM ABOUT MOBRIDGE TO GETTYSBURG TO MILLER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON FRI NIGHT/SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGING CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEK WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER, IF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FASTER OR SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES COULD REFLECT A DIFFERENT RANGE.
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STABLE AIR MASS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT DOES NOT HAVE THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS SEEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT DOES HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR SITUATED ALOFT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHADOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND ALONG AN AREA OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. BRINGING BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST EXPANDS INLAND AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THU AND FRI.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEBRASKA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AS WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MELTS ANY SNOW.
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CU FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK/NW AR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH AS OF 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A BVO. WITH THE CONVECTION BUILDING SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE OK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT.
Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY UNDER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
The flow will amplify late Wednesday with the development of a west coast ridge/central U. trough couplet.
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH WED BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRECIP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE WEST TO EAST JET AND IT IS SOMEWHAT LACKING BUT DOES PICK UP AS THE JET BECOMES NORTH TO SOUTH AND SUPPORTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS SOON AS NOON TOMORROW WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS. JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW WILL BE OVER AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
1115 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LEE TROF REESTABLISHING BY 25/00Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE.
Low level thermal ridging and downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture.
COLD FRONT AS OF 15Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A ICT. OTHER CHANGES INCLUDE BEEFING UP SKY PERCENTAGES WITH THE LOW LEVEL RETURNING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE KERN CO AREA.
955 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH THE BEAUMONT AREA. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET FOR THE LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING A BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE NORTH WINDS COULD BE STRONGER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT QUITE WARM IN OUR TEXAS COUNTIES TODAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING.
BUT WILL LEAVE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN AS SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS OF FAR ERN OK AND WC AR REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT THOSE AREAS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 18Z. SO NO MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIP THATS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. YIELDING LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS NORTHEAST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHWEST. TRACKING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS. THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. STILL SUGGESTS SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN SATURDAY EVENING. WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE 5-8 C COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S NUMBERS.
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS. GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
With modest north winds continuing through the day, the low stratus should be a bit quicker to erode than yesterday. Over the next few days, a series of upper level impulses will continue to drop down into the Great Basin, and eventually form a closed low over CA/NV. The limiting factor will be the low moisture content that will be available to the system.
BUT AN INSERTION OF VCSH/RA MAY BE WARRANTED IF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS SUFFICIENT. 15-BAIN/30 WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SURGING NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW BEGINS TO TURN NORTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN EXPECTED ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARD DAYBREAK. NORTHERN BAYS SHOULD STILL SEE LOWER WINDS SPEEDS DUE TO THE COOLER WATER BUT SCEC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THERE.
1100 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 ALREADY GETTING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. SO TRIED TO PUSH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA A BIT FASTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN. A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST IN THE EVENING ONLY. AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FOR WRN KY LATE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS TEMPS CRASH AGAIN BELOW FREEZING. PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST AND LOW CENTERS FROM GREENLAND TO HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP BROAD TROF AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
144 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS.
410 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WINTRY MIX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 85H LOW LEVEL JET AN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT WILL CARRY WEDGE OF WARM AIR.
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION MOST OF TONIGHT. THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES UNDER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FOR INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. MIXING AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIMITED. BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WITH A TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE ROCKIES. LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SNOW OR MIX FROM ACCUMULATING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. LATE TODAY THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL INVADE BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE.
A WARM FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LIGHT RAINSHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 TO THE UPPER 50S. BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
Highs today will peak in the upper 40s to low-mid 50s with overnight lows staying in the 30s, except along the Panhandle coast, where lows will be in the low 40s.
301 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE. THAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TAP GULF MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BEGINNING IN THE PREDAWN OF SATURDAY. THAT WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY ALSO SUPPORT A CHANGE TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. WITH EVENTUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IN A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.
AND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALREADY IN A LOT OF LOCALES. HAVE DIALED BACK THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS CONSIDERABLY. BUT OTHERWISE ANY FREEZING PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO KBPK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE STATE.
RAIN MAY BE THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL UNLESS THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO CAUSE EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH SEEM UNLIKELY UNTIL AFTER THE FORCING HAS ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, TAPERING OFF TOT HE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
429 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE CANCELED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM FORCING AND DEPARTING RIDGE.
307 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 EARLY THIS AFTN A COLD FRONT HAD ENTERED THE FAR NW CWA WITH AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MN. THIS WAS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAA AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE A LARGE UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER NERN CANADA AND MAINTAINS A LARGE ERN NOAM TROF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING CDFNT WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED WITHIN AN ALREADY FRIGID SFC AIRMASS.
326 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
951 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2015 COOLER. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS TO OUR NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
335 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS FROM HUDSON BAY TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK SOME LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
110 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MUCH WARMER AND UNFORTUNATELY MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING A VERY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 20S SATURDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION BRINGS SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON TO BE DOMINATED BY SNOW AND SLEET P- TYPE WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. STILL EXPECT HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. LUCKILY WARM ADVECTION KEEPS THE AREA WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
BUT MAY BE A LITTLE FREEZING PRECIPITATION MIXED IN AS WELL.
RIDGES HAVE BEEN WARMER THUS FAR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE EAST TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION AND HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE WARM NOSE INITIATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF SLEET. FREEZING RAIN.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL BOTH STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH INTO SATURDAY.
A cold front is expected to move through TAF locations Saturday morning, resulting in surface winds shifting to the north to northeast. Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains look to reach High Wind Warning criteria for several hours this afternoon so will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning.
FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR INLAND LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1033 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. LONG WAVE TROUGHING IS SITUATED ALONG THE U. WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN COASTAL AREAS KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS AND THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY LATE EVENING AND THEN LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER OUR REGION.
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.