Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS - INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WERE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THUS ANY MIXING OF THE LOWER/SURFACE LAYERS WITH H850 WOULD NOT TAP INTO VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. 71 IN 2012 TONIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE SHOULD KEEP QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW END. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN MAY PUT RECORD TEMPS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN.
EXPECT JUST A THICKENING CIRRUS DECK LATE TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER INTO THE 10-15KFT RANGE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY.
728 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAKE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEAD TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL INDICATES GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
AND SHOULD SEE THIS DRY AIR MIX TO THE LOWER ELEVS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN STRONGLY OVER THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE FILTERING THROUGH THE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. A VERY WARM DAY FOR THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND H7 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 7-10 DEG C. 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.
654 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VERY WARM AND DRY SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF POLAR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO SWRN ALBERTA. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TUE AND WED.
1105 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE. SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. WE WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVES THOUGH THE CWA TONIGHT HELPING KEEP US MIXED AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30S.
633 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Lake Superior to the Texas panhandle will settle southward into the Ohio River Valley today. Skies will initially be sunny during the morning: however, as a trough of low pressure tracks across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, high clouds will stream southward into the area later in the day. Clouds may become thick enough to mitigate the warming trend somewhat, but am still expecting temps to be 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday, with readings topping out in the middle to upper 60s.
SO MUCH SO THAT I HAVE BUMPED UP THE HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE ARE DEFINITELY DRYING OUT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THESE SITES BY 14Z AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD. 58/ROSE /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL INDICATES GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
A WARM FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOCAL INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
1134 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. NO SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THIS PD AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. XPCD WAA INADV OF PROGRESSIVE SW ADVG EWD THROUGH CNTRL CANADA AND DEGREE OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT BUILDS THIS AFTN. AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER/SEASONAL WX 925 MB TEMPS PUSHING 13-15C IN A WELL MIXED PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD AFFORD MID 60S-LOW 70S HIGHS MONDAY.
703 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. NO SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THIS PD AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. XPCD WAA INADV OF PROGRESSIVE SW ADVG EWD THROUGH CNTRL CANADA AND DEGREE OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT BUILDS THIS AFTN. AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER/SEASONAL WX 925 MB TEMPS PUSHING 13-15C IN A WELL MIXED PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD AFFORD MID 60S-LOW 70S HIGHS MONDAY.
938 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
BUT ALSO DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH A NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. GUSTY S-SW SURFACE TO TO 30 KTS EXCEPT IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WHICH WILL SEE E-SE WINDS TO 20 KTS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED NORTHWARD DRIFT WILL RESULT IN WARMER-THAN-EXPECTED TEMPS.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE HIGH CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH THEY WILL IMPACT THE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN FOR TONIGHT. DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING MARCH HEAT TODAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. BUT COOLER OVER COASTAL AREAS. MANY AREAS MAY EVEN BETTER THE HIGH TEMP RECORDS SET YESTERDAY IN THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER A STRONG MID MARCH SUN. COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AFTER TODAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE VERY STRONG 586 DM RIDGE OVERHEAD PEAKING TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A WEAK RIDGE REEMERGES OVER THE SW AS THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY THOUGH! HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR. 77 /ISSUED 150 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AMONGST THE LOW CLOUDINESS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. THE LOWEST CLOUD DECKS ARE CLEARING ACROSS TN AND WILL DO SO IN NRN AL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING TROF THRU THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHICH IS SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY.
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TODAY AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ A RELIEF FROM THE WET PATTERN TO START THE WEEK IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS.
631 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 150 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AMONGST THE LOW CLOUDINESS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. THE LOWEST CLOUD DECKS ARE CLEARING ACROSS TN AND WILL DO SO IN NRN AL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING TROF THRU THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHICH IS SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING GIVING SOME BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS.
/ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PAINT A STRONG SW STREAM OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF BAJA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO THE UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF -RA ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY TRY TO SPREAD NWRD THRU THE DAY BUT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER LLVL AIR.
IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE (NE) FLOW OFF THE CHILLY ATLC WATERS.
610 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 After a few soggy days, Spring looks to make an appearance today and tomorrow across the region, before cooler weather and more rain arrive for the middle of the week. Readings should top out this afternoon around 70s, with abundant sunshine thanks to high pressure moving south through the area. After a mild night tonight, an even warmer and breezier day is expected for Monday, with highs solidly into the mid 70s. While dewpoints should be a bit higher Monday, warmer temperatures and stronger winds should result in an additional day of elevated fire weather conditions in a few areas, again mostly across central and west-central Missouri.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE BROAD RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. HOWEVER A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER FOOTHILLS. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I70.
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN MEXICO REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BUILDING HEIGHTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING WHILE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE RIDGING OCCURS LOCALLY.
701 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
623 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CWA WILL RESIDE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FAVORABLE FOR MAX HEATING WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DRY MONDAY EVE/NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN COOLER AIRMASS.
148 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
350 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 ITS BEEN A SUNNY AND EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AFTERNOON AS LARGE BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE MS VALLEY GLIDES EAST. THIS AFTERNOON A D-E-E-P UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM KS ALL THE WAY TO THE MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST.
EXCEPT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BE NEARER TO THE AREA. BUT DID ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BR ALONG A WEAK TROUGH OVERNIGHT. TODAY AND TONIGHT BRIEF DIP IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. STEADY DRYING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. LOWS PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
/ISSUED 208 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015/ Water vapor shows upper low has dug unusually far s with broad mid level trof axis across W TX. Meanwhile there will be a surface trof developing to the nw which should ensure a light se flow thru Thur PM. Surface ridging will gradually replace surface trof on Fri. Mid level trof axis will move e some on Sat.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN WY. WATER VAPOR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES HEADING EAST. UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE PEAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH DECENT GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL SD. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELEVATED MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PARTIALLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
But all model data would suggest the higher terrain throughout the Clearwater/Bitterroot Mountains as well as along Flathead Lake should see between a quarter and half an inch of steady precipitation through Thursday morning.
FORTUNATELY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WED EVENING.
1230 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.
235 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA KEEPING RH VALUES ABOVE FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO INCREASING UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO AND THAT APPEARS TO BE UNDER MODELED IN AVAILABLE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE H5 TROUGH IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS TEXAS. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE FIRST VORT/H7 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NE TEXAS.
259 PM PDT WED MAR 11 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AND BRING AN END TO SHOWERS.
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BASICALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S(F) THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW, LOWS ARE EXPECTED ONLY DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
520 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015 Similar conditions to yesterday will once again yield temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region today, although weak northerly surface flow over far northern MO may keep those areas a couple of degrees cooler.
235 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 WARM WEATHER CONTINUES AS A UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
350 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
GENERAL SYNOPSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DUG INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. FRONTOGENISIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF APPENDANT TO THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH.
208 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015 Water vapor shows upper low has dug unusually far s with broad mid level trof axis across W TX. Meanwhile there will be a surface trof developing to the nw which should ensure a light se flow thru Thur PM. Surface ridging will gradually replace surface trof on Fri. Mid level trof axis will move e some on Sat.
248 PM MST WED MAR 11 2015 INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
356 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
133 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 AFTER DENSE FOG LIFTS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
246 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES SSW TO MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
LEE TROFFING AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. AND LEE TROFFING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DROP INTO AZ BY BY THURS AFTN. BLENDING WITH THE MEAN TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP FREEZING LEVELS QUITE HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THESE TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND THE SNOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DROP OF IN TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.
330 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY.
1254 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOWER DEW PTS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S/SE AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. A RECEDING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEAN QUITE THE WARM MID-MARCH DAY FOR THU AS BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. DESPITE A TRAILING DIGGING UPR LVL TROF AXIS FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM.
315 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND THE ADJOINING WATERS. LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING A SLOWLY DISSIPATING AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER KEYS AND THE WATERS NORTHWARD. A LARGE AND VERY FORMIDABLE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A RIDGE REACHING DOWN THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
101 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 THIS UPDATE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SNOW COVER AND SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING WARMUP. ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE WEST DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING OVER UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY OF 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BIT COOLER.
1140 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED Current satellite imagery shows extensive cloud coverage across central/southwest MT, all associated with an upper-level trof and surface cold front that will move through the region later today and tomorrow morning. Although 9am temperatures are quite a bit warmer than this time yesterday, the widespread clouds should keep us from warming as much as initially thought.
300 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG THE EDGE OF H85 THERMAL TROF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
217 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD FINALLY MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME BREAKS ALREADY NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUDS AS PER VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
1218 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MOVED OUT OF THE CWA NOW AND NLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH CAA AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
357 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 WESTERN WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL MERGE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS NORTHERN MEXICO IN NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
242 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
259 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER TROUGHS OR CUT OFF LOW.
241 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS A RESULT. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THE H5 TROUGH IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS TEXAS. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE FIRST VORT/H7 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NE TEXAS.
321 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
1130 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
314 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
328 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH A RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.
309 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015 Weak upper trough axis was just southeast of Kansas today, with ridging over the Rockies combining to keep skies clear in a rather dry atmosphere. This should still support highs in the lower 70s for most areas, though some retrogression of the southern end of the upper trough axis may bring some thicker high cloud into southeastern locations in the afternoon for slightly cooler conditions. For late this week and the upcoming weekend, the focus early on will be on the impact from the Mexican upper low ejecting northeast across the South Central US.