Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm front will help to initialize rain showers across South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. The exception will be across the Pine Ridge region where model soundings indicate that some wet snowflakes or isolated freezing drizzle could be possible as surface temperatures drop to near freezing overnight. Little to no snow accumulations are expected, even across the Pine Ridge region where the best location is to see snow, resulting in minimal impacts. Mostly cloudy skies and cold air advection into the region will keep temperatures chilly on Friday with highs only expected in the low 30s in the north to the upper 30s south of I-80.
A cold front is then expected to move through the area late tonight through Friday morning, bringing showers and storms, and much colder air into the area for the weekend. The warm front that has been moving north across the area will finally get north of the CWA around mid morning. Additional showers and storms are expected late tonight as a cold front pushes into the area from the northwest. Then as the front moves through the area, overnight lows will be on the warm side with many locations seeing warmer temperatures early in the morning as cold air arrives behind the front during the day Friday.
330 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough digging into the Intermountain West, with ridging over the east coast. At the surface, high pressure was centered along the southern Appalachians, with light southeasterly winds across the TN Valley. Under mostly clear skies, highs should warm into the lower to mid 80s Another mild night is expected, with overnight lows falling into the lower 60s. The trough over the west will continue to move eastward and amplify slightly as it makes its way into the Plains. A surface cold front will develop and trail south of its parent low over the Great Lakes region by Friday morning. However, the front will generally weaken as the mid level trough dampens.
Warmer weather persists into Friday, but another cold front will bring more rain and cooler temperatures by Friday night. A warm front is lifting northward into the area this morning. This, combined with good southerly flow and warm air advection, will bring temperatures into the mid to upper 70s across the south, and into the low 70s north. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows in the low 60s. The cold front will be approaching though, and showers and thunderstorms could start moving into the northwest by morning. A strong cold front will move quickly through the area on Friday.
Elsewhere, MVFR/IFR conds will be possible between 09/14z with the lowest conds noted near KHOT, KADF, and KPBF. A cold front will approach the state from the NW by Fri morning. with temps ranging from the low to mid 50s across the far NWRN counties.
As low pressure strengthened across the High Plains, south breezes persisted across the Ozarks. This kept the lower trop well mixed keeping temperatures in the 60s over all locations. As instability increases over the Kansas and northwest Missouri, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front late this afternoon and into the evening.
320 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 High pressure to the north and low pressure to the southwest maintain a tight gradient for the next couple of days with east winds that will be gusty at times. High pressure to the north and low pressure to the southwest will keep east winds in place for the next several days.
These winds will veer a little today and become gusty in response to leeside troughing ahead of an incoming cold front, which won't arrive until after 06Z Friday. /issued 241 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020/ There is a broad upper level trough over the northern portion of the country. An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward over the northern Rocky Mountains/northern Plains on Thursday. The previously mentioned trough will move eastward on Friday with an associated cold front pushing south into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday behind the cold front will be significantly colder than the previous days, with highs well below normal.
High pressure and upper ridging will dominate the weather pattern through Thursday night with southerly flow starting to increase during this period. An upper level disturbance and surface cold front will approach the region on Friday bringing showers and a few thunderstorms.
Another minimal impact night across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure sits parked across the Appalachians and subsidence rules across the Southeast. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s, a good 10-15 degrees above normal for low temperatures this time of year. Some scattered cloud cover is shown in guidance moving up from the south on Thursday, as the upper low over SE Georgia moves NW into eastern Tennessee. A slight warming due to more southerly low level flow should allow highs to climb into the lower 80s again. On Thursday evening, several models forecast a longwave trough axis over the Midwest to kick east and finally give the stalled front to our northwest a kick to the east. Warmer and more moist air ahead of the front should keep lows a bit warmer, only dropping into the lower to mid 60s.
Another night with low CIGs and VSBYs to develop at MVFR/IFR levels tonight, especially hitting the lower VSBYs toward VCT.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 63 79 62 77 / 0 10 30 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 59 78 60 75 / 0 10 20 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 78 59 78 60 75 / 0 10 30 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 56 77 57 73 / 0 10 20 20 40.
High pressure will remain in place across Middle Tennessee through this taf period.
All in all, rain chances will remain in the 30-50% range for any location each day, with similar highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough digging into the Intermountain West, with ridging over the east coast. At the surface, high pressure was centered along the southern Appalachians, with light southeasterly winds across the TN Valley. Under mostly clear skies, highs should warm into the lower to mid 80s Another mild night is expected, with overnight lows falling into the lower 60s. The trough over the west will continue to move eastward and amplify slightly as it makes its way into the Plains. A surface cold front will develop and trail south of its parent low over the Great Lakes region by Friday morning. However, the front will generally weaken as the mid level trough dampens.
A strong cold front will arrive in northeast OK a little before 06z, reaching I-44 corridor around 08z and will by approaching KFSM by 12z. The next strong cold front pushes into NE OK before midnight and likely clears western AR / SE OK by late Friday morning. Widespread precip is also expected to develop along and behind the cold front tonight through Friday morning.
GOES-16 satellite trends depict an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys while an upper level low is located over the Southwest United States. Meanwhile, a warm front is located from the Ohio VAlley back through Southern Missouri and into the Central Plains. Short term models continue to indicate a weakening cold front dropping into the Mid-South on Friday afternoon into Friday night, resulting in the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
Slight veering of the low level winds, moreso from the south, will allow dewpoints to begin to creep up.
It will be warm again today with highs ranging from the lower 80s to the lower 90s. Low temperatures tonight will be warm again given the persistent southeasterly flow in the low-levels. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. There will be a change to the weather pattern on Friday as the models are trending faster and cooler with the next cold front set to impact the area. For the remainder of the area, we will continue to forecast above normal warmth, with highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
We will leave the highlights in place for now, but anticipate canceling some of them early, especially those across the northern CWA. The trof axis shifts east of us this evening bringing any precipitation to a virtual end. By the late afternoon, model guidance continues to show a consistent solution of an increased chance for snow mainly west of Billings as a trough starts to move into the Northern Rockies.
Cold high pressure remains over the region on Friday with highs mostly in the 20s.
A weak cold front will progress southeastward into the region on Friday, with widely sctd to sctd showers or tstms possible. The highest chcs are again expected acrs S Cntl LA where deepest moisture will reside.
Another mild night is expected, with overnight lows falling into the lower 60s. The trough over the west will continue to move eastward and amplify slightly as it makes its way into the Plains. A surface cold front will develop and trail south of its parent low over the Great Lakes region by Friday morning. However, the front will generally weaken as the mid level trough dampens.
A cold front will then cross the are Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in for the weekend. Otherwise, tranquil weather is expected today with the high temperatures being the main story. Increasing southerly flow from 7-12 mph in response to developing low pressure in the Great Plains will also help usher in moisture to the Ohio Valley to compliment the warm temperatures. Southerly flow will occur across the area between a high on the Atlantic coast and an approaching cold front.
Interaction between a trough of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula and broad high pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to produce gusty easterly winds around 15 knots over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days.
604 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Under mostly cloudy skies and intermittent showers passing through the Lower and Middle Keys, temperatures range from 75 to 80 degrees along the Island Chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting scattered to numerous showers and a stray thunderstorm covering the Lower and the Middle Keys, and the adjacent Gulf waters, Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida.
For the weekend, a potent cold front will bring gusty winds both days.
322 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Cold front moved through the Cheyenne area this morning around midnight and currently being analyzed along the Wyoming/Colorado border. Cold front by that time will be down across western and southeastern Colorado. Morning lows in the low teens and upper single digits with afternoon highs struggling to get to freezing.
A cold front will then cross the are Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in for the weekend. Southerly flow will occur across the area between a high on the Atlantic coast and an approaching cold front.
Rain chances for this afternoon and evening are 40-50 percent across ECFL with the highest chance for showers occurring along the western portion of Lake and Osceola counties as well as the northwest portion of Okeechobee county. Today's forecast high temperatures will be in the mid 80s with an overnight low in the low 70s.
The heaviest of rain has diminished through not before producing some localize flooding in the Lower and Middle Keys. Current temperatures across the island chain are in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Winds will likely increase again tonight as a strong pressure gradient remains in place between a low pressure over the Yucatan and high pressure over the eastern U.
The Bermuda ridge will push westward towards the area today. At the same time, a broad trough will be dropping out of Canada into the central plains. Temps will still be above normal but gradually coming down as 500mb heights fall with the trough moving in. The cold front associated with the trough just won't have enough push behind it to do much more than stall by the time it gets down to the Gulf Coast.
Cold arctic high pressure slides south across the region behind the snow system.
/issued 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020/ High pressure to the north and low pressure to the southwest maintain a tight gradient for the next couple of days with east winds that will be gusty at times. High pressure to the north and low pressure to the southwest will keep east winds in place for the next several days.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 63 80 63 77 / 0 10 30 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 78 61 75 / 0 0 20 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 78 59 78 61 74 / 0 0 30 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 57 77 58 72 / 0 0 20 30 50.
528 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Cold front moved through the Cheyenne area this morning around midnight and currently being analyzed along the Wyoming/Colorado border. Cold front by that time will be down across western and southeastern Colorado. Morning lows in the low teens and upper single digits with afternoon highs struggling to get to freezing.
Still enough influence over the forecast area to keep the lower-end chance PoPs in the forecast into this evening, still mainly across our central Georgia counties.
Meanwhile to the west, a cold front extended across Kansas into Iowa. Lows tonight will range from around 40 over southeast Kansas to the lower 60s over far south central Missouri.
Mostly cloudy skies and cold air advection into the region will keep temperatures chilly on Friday with highs only expected in the low 30s in the north to the upper 30s south of I-80.
-Strong to severe thunderstorm potential Friday afternoon and evening with cold front passage.
This cloud coverage is expected to persist through this afternoon hours with high temperatures climbing into the low/mid 80s.
Gulf moisture streaming northward and overrunning a surface warm front over southern Wisconsin should result in heavy rainfall totals, especially in east central Wisconsin. The 500mb pattern will have a ridge across the Pacific Ocean into western North America with a downstream across the central and eastern United States.
Cloud cover has kept temperatures down and as such, ASOS observations reveal temperatures in the lower 80s. This is n part why we have had less lightning strikes today versus yesterday, when a weak trough was present.
water vapor continues to show the progression of an upper short trough moving through the South Plains. This will force an associated strong cold front through the area with northeasterly winds advecting cold air into the CWA.
255 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A cold front will surge across the Mississippi River valley late tonight, reaching central Illinois shortly after daybreak Friday, and exiting the region early Friday afternoon. Clouds will also be increasing as a cold front from NW Missouri surges eastward late tonight. Readings will range from the upper 40s in NW IL to about 60 along the I-55 corridor - with temperatures falling into the lower-mid 40s by dusk.
Showers and fog this morning will move north and dissipate mid-day before a cold front sweeps through tonight bringing a chance of severe t-storms. Cooler weather settles in for the weekend and brings a hard freeze to the area.
312 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A strong cold front will move across the area late tonight and early Friday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms near and behind the front.
Elsewhere, have included a sprinkle/flurry mention, along with light freezing drizzle as we lose saturation in the dendritic (ice crystal formation) layer. The Winter Weather Advisory also continues until 03Z, which seems reasonable given the potential for freezing drizzle. Cloud cover will keep temperatures from lowering much tonight, with lows in the lower 20s to lower 30s. Highs Friday will struggle to get much above freezing, with upper 20s to mid 30s in most locations.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 80 63 77 61 / 10 30 40 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 78 61 75 59 / 0 20 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 78 61 74 58 / 0 30 50 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 77 58 72 55 / 0 10 30 50 20.
1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Unseasonably warm/breezy conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of strong cold front tonight.
315 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Warm conditions are expected again tomorrow, but increasing cloud cover should keep most of the Midsouth at least a few degrees cooler than today. A broad low amplitude trough will shift across the Mississippi River by midday tomorrow. At the surface, an associated cold front will move quickly move across the Midsouth.
Overnight looks quiet as a cold front pushes its way into north TX.
A dry cold front will continue to cross Utah today bringing much colder temperatures to the state.
This is in stark contrast to tomorrow, as a cold front is expected to move through Friday morning, reaching the I-20 corridor by sunrise. The cold front will continue pushing south to reach the Hwy 90 corridor by early afternoon.
High pressure will be northeast of the region through Friday.
This will follow right into a cooler cloudier day than today on Friday with a warm front lifting through New England.
Cold front forecast to move through NE OK TAF sites during the 07-09Z range with brief periods of heavy rain/thunderstorms. /Issued 1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/ Unseasonably warm/breezy conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of strong cold front tonight.
240 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 The main weather features in the short term arrive on Friday with a broad mid level short wave moving east into the MS River Valley, and an associated cold front that will be cross the region from nw to se during the day. However, higher chances will arrive during the day Friday as the aforementioned cold front moves across the region, probably reaching somewhere just nw of the OH River by early early afternoon. Much cooler air will push in behind the front Friday afternoon (nw areas) and Friday night, as Canadian high pressure pushes east from the Midwest towards the Great Lakes region. In fact, we could be looking at temps in the lower 50s by day's end Friday over nw locations, while 70s still rule our se counties along the surface front.
302 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 High pressure will remain in control through Friday.
Latest surface analysis is showing that warm front has moved into Iowa and northern Illinois at the same time low pressure has moved into southeast Nebraska with a extending from the low into western Kansas. Water vapor is showing an upper trough dropping south across the northern Rockies which the latest runs of the HREF shows moving into the Great Lakes by midday tomorrow. The cold front is still on track to move southeast across the CWA late tonight and Friday. Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to move southeast across CWA caused by the ascent from the trough and convergence along the front. This precipitation will move south of the area by late Friday afternoon as subsidence sets in behind the trough and drier air advects in behind the front. Some locations in northeast Missouri will likely drop below freezing.
321 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A quasi-stationary front extends from low pressure centered over the OK panhandle this afternoon northeastward into southeastern Iowa. Some clearing is possible in our southwestern areas which should allow morning lows in this area to drop below freezing and therefore will continue the Freeze Warning which should be the last of it's kind for this season for that area.
235 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Much of the heavier precipitation will be out of the area by early evening, but some patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle will remain possible along with some light to briefly moderate snow. Northerly flow is expected on Friday ahead of incoming high pressure.
1140 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Cold front moved through the Cheyenne area this morning around midnight and currently being analyzed along the Wyoming/Colorado border. Cold front by that time will be down across western and southeastern Colorado. Morning lows in the low teens and upper single digits with afternoon highs struggling to get to freezing.
Also this afternoon, cold air advection continues to be stronger than even the lowered temperatures and will likely need to be lowered.
The persistent easterly flow pattern in place is expected to continue through Friday as a nose of high pressure extends from northeast to southwest across the eastern US. At the upper levels, a weak ridge along the eastern US will begin to break down as a broad cyclonic flow moves in across the central US.
1205 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020 North winds with the cold front have reached as far south as RIW and CPR this morning, and should be along the WY/CO border by around noon. This will change in the next few hours as temperatures continue to fall below freezing. Temperatures east of the divide will remain steady in the upper 20s and lower 30s today, while the western valleys and south WY recover into the lower 40s. Friday, high pressure will be settling across the state, keeping winds light. General rule of thumb keeps a roughly 20-degree diurnal range, which allows temperatures to return to the mid to upper 30s east of the Divide and back into the lower 40s for the western valleys and south WY.
Friday, a cold front approaches the area from the north. Right now it looks like the arrival time of the front will be near max heating, so the high temperatures will reflect the placement of the front. Should the front move faster, temps will be hard pressed to reach 80s along I-35, however, for now the highs for the area will be 70s in the Hill Country and 80s elsewhere. As the drier air moves in overnight, the low temperatures Friday night have some room to drop in the 40s in the Hill Country and 50s elsewhere.
324 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Temperatures will soar into the 70s and skies will become mostly to partly sunny this afternoon behind a warm front.
The possibility for impactful weather will be limited to this weekend as a system moves into the northern plains ahead of a trough.
High pressure settles in tonight with a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.
1238 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Temperatures will soar into the 70s and skies will become mostly to partly sunny this afternoon behind a warm front.
This activity will continue through the evening with the highest coverage happening across the southeastern portion of the region, then decrease overnight tonight with the loss of daytime heating.
Our next weather maker will be moving towards the region overnight, as an upper trough continues to dig southeastward through the Central and Southern Plains then eventually into our region. The trough will bring a cold front through region on Friday. Northwesterly winds in wake of the boundary will bring in noticeably cooler and drier conditions.
The low clouds over the northern Red River Valley and Devils Lake region are eroding, and this trend is pushing down into the Fargo area now too. The possibility for impactful weather will be limited to this weekend as a system moves into the northern plains ahead of a trough.
Southerly surface winds will develop tomorrow as a strong cold front begins to approach from the north. Clouds will be on the increase tomorrow ahead of the trough and cold front.
A quasi-stationary front extends from low pressure centered over the OK panhandle this afternoon northeastward into southeastern Iowa. Some clearing is possible in our southwestern areas which should allow morning lows in this area to drop below freezing and therefore will continue the Freeze Warning which should be the last of it's kind for this season for that area.
Dry weather continues with cooler, more seasonable temperatures into Friday.
Warm evening to start with and southeast and east winds will continue as the cold front move into the farthestmost northern sliver of Texas around 6 pm with quite a dewpoint gradient. The cold front should sweep through during the afternoon Thursday and be off the coast around 6-9 pm. MVFR rising back to VFR by late morning before the cold front. A cold front moves through the area in the afternoon will usher in BKN 1500-2500 ft with patchy light rain and showers.
We are still in the somewhat tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure over the northwest Caribbean and a strong high pressure ridge wedging down the U.