Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most of the precipitation should be limited to the higher terrain.
249 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 1053 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/ SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER S TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GULF/SE TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
426 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BOTH THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT.
THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
Today and Thursday will be much cooler than previous days due to the cold front that passed through the area yesterday.
249 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING. ALBEIT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
744 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
303 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH DANGER AS WELL. DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
940 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 13-14 UTC. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
106 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY EAST OF A PINERIDGE-IMPERIAL LINE. COOLER AIR SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY.
Scattered showers will linger over the area in the slightly unstable northwest flow aloft in the wake of an exiting trough. However, a weak cold front will swing south out of Canada after 03Z, shifting winds more northwesterly and bringing another round of showers with potentially MVFR conditions to the area, especially over the north central Montana plains.
Most of the showers that were across the area this morning have either weakened or moved east, and the weak upper level trough is beginning to move east of the area which will shift rain chances to the east.
333 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE STATE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS HOWEVER WILL STILL BE ON THE SLUSHY SIDE WITH MUCH OF IT MELTING ON CONTACT DUE TO WARMER DAYS PREVIOUSLY.
AN AREA OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRIDGE A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. REINFORCING A MODERATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER PENINSULAR FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEARLY NIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST.
A SFC TROF OR WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN BECOME NNW TO N LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SWD. AND A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTN AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
640 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
919 AM PDT Wed Apr 1 2015 An upper trough will bring a slight chance of showers to the northern mountains this afternoon, then breezy north winds tonight into Thursday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER STATE AT 18Z TODAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST. HOWEVER ELEVATED CAPE DOES NOT INCREASE UNTIL 03Z AND AFTER WITH BETTER 850-700 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
350 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. 25 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS 9-10C IN PRE-FRONTAL THETA-E RIDGE. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG LATEST NWP ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E TROUGH WILL PUSH.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE TAIL END OF A WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. BUT COOLER AT THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. ENTERING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
942 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
210 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT/THETA-E BOUNDARY. AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LOWEST POPS AND WARMEST HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW.
1214 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015 THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM HAYDEN SE TO GRAND JUNCTION AND INTO SOUTHERN CANYONLANDS NP AT NOON TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST SETTLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER BUT IS MOSTLY A WIND AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY. BUT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z.
647 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015 THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 13-14 UTC. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
1256 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE DAY. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT WESTERN AREAS MID AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. AN UPPER TROF HAD MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST. THE NAM IS INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.
226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
Strengthening southerly flow will develop across central Illinois today ahead of low pressure deepening eastward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Warm advection in the southerly flow will result in temperatures reaching the low 70s most areas, with mid 70s from around Springfield to Peoria westward. Aside from scattered high clouds, the day should be mostly sunny as significant lift and instability with the approaching low/cold front hold off until overnight. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold front will keep the winds and associated WAA up a bit overnight.
STRONG CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF FLIGHT IMPACTS BEING FROM SE OK INTO WESTERN AR. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BOTH THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT.
654 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015 Strengthening southerly flow will develop across central Illinois today ahead of low pressure deepening eastward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Warm advection in the southerly flow will result in temperatures reaching the low 70s most areas, with mid 70s from around Springfield to Peoria westward. Aside from scattered high clouds, the day should be mostly sunny as significant lift and instability with the approaching low/cold front hold off until overnight. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold front will keep the winds and associated WAA up a bit overnight.
425 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOS NUMBERS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST.
Currently, a strong cold front is moving south through northern Missouri and central Illinois.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHICH WILL STREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT SEEM TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED SATURATED LAYER OVER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE MID MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH WARM FRONT. A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. ONCE THE LOWER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN MILD CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER.
THEN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. NUDGED AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.
122 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. INITIAL SNOW FALL WAS CUT BACK JUST SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FROM WAA AND CLEAR SKIES. WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN NORTH AND RIDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE WELL IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST. CANADIAN MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH COLDEST SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH SOME LOWS HOLDING IN THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. WESTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
235 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THIS TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-BROKEN CUMULUS AND A FEW FLURRIES. LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
1100 AM PST WED FEB 4 2015 Light rain and mountain snow will accompany the passage of a warm front today.
Light Snow this Evening then Much Warmer by this Weekend. A much colder airmass was infiltrating the area this afternoon behind a cold front that had pushed into northern Arkansas. Let the warming trend begin as a massive upper level ridge builds across the nation's midsection through the next several days.
158 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO AFTN HIGH TEMPS/HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR CENTRAL OREGON. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN OREGON THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 6500 FEET IN CENTRAL OREGON, AROUND 5500 FEET IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SO SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVELS AND BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
352 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) A strong cold front was approaching from the north this afternoon and was crossing the Red River as of 3 PM. A much colder airmass will filter in behind the front tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s north, to the lower and middle 30s south.
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR. MOSGUIDE BLEND DID A DECENT JOB OF REPRESENTING THE LOWS WITH THE SNOW COVER. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF DAY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK RIDGING IN BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A QUIET START TO THURSDAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH WARM AIR ALOFT.
1244 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SEVERAL CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL FROM THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. WPC HI/RES MODELS WERE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE LOWER LAYERS CONTINUED TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY AROUND 15Z AT WWR/GAG. /ISSUED 443 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/ THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
1245 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH WITH SOME LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED EARLY TODAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
335 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
436 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
That high pressure will move east of the area by Thursday afternoon, allowing for southerly flow to return.
416 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. INITIAL SNOW FALL WAS CUT BACK JUST SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FROM WAA AND CLEAR SKIES. WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN NORTH AND RIDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE WELL IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWATH OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THAT IS GENERATING SNOW SPREADING ACROSS NEBRASKA AT THIS HOUR. WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE SURGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE SNOW OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ACHIEVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE.
An upper level PV anomaly along the southern Gulf coast of Texas is helping develop a weak area of low pressure at the surface in the western Gulf. The upper level PV anomaly will slowly steer the low pressure system east-northeastward, which will periods of rain through tonight.
1151 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FROM THE DAKOTAS. HAVE CONCERNS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA COULD SEE ENOUGH IMPACTS FROM THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ONTARIO AND INTO NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING EAST. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ND ON SAT. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE OVER THE ALTA/SASK BORDER AND WILL MOVE ACROSS ND TONIGHT. JET/JET STREAKS WERE ON THE EAST SIDE OF BOTH RIDGES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU AS WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EACH SYSTEM WILL FEATURE ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO INTRODUCE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE POISED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS WILL TRACK QUICKLY EWD WITH ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWNSTATE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW TO N FLOW. QUITE COOLER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER 40S NE FL COASTAL LOCATIONS.
1219 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAPE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH PCPN THEN TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW LEVEL CAA KICKS IN.
1243 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY THEN TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1146 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NOW WITH A LAYER OF LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TRAILING RIGHT BEHIND. /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX/ QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST WINDS THIS MORNING FOR A SWIFT-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE.
RECENT REPORTS OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS SE KS / SW MO. LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY HOWEVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE IMPACTED AS TEMPS COOL QUICKLY. /ISSUED 333 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015/ COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CLEAR SE OK BY EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE / FREEZING DRIZZLE / SNOW FLURRIES NEARER THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE VERY LOW.