Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
02Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Central Lake Superior back through East Central Missouri and Western Arkansas. As of 8 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid- South range from the lower to middle 40s along and north of I-40 where cloud cover is present. /issued 256 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019/ A cold front currently stretches from near Davenport, Iowa southwestward to Tulsa, Oklahoma. Temperatures have risen into the 50s across the Mid-South this afternoon with the exception of Northeast Mississippi where temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 60s due to limited cloud cover. Another upper trof and associated weak cold front will move into the area Monday Night.
Models depicting good short term consistency with a broad western ridge and a sharp trough overhead. Patchy light rain has exited the eastern Ozarks ahead of a cold front approaching I-44 at 20z. Surface temperatures are a bit odd in that they are warmer in behind the front as skies clear.
318 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Northwest flow will continue across the central Plains in the wake of the mid level trough that moved through eastern Kansas today.
There's not much mid level moisture upstream but the model idea of a little band near the trough axis looks right, and this would give a slight chance of a little snow over the northern mountains for a few hours late tonight.
However, the main sfc cold front is still upstream to our west in the mid-Miss Valley. A narrow belt of cirrus clouds in assoc/w lift ahead of a mid-lat trough are moving across the area. Farther to our west, low/mid clouds ahead of the impending cold front are scattered in nature, but moving towards the area. A cool day is in store to start the work week as CAA behind the cold front will keep afternoon highs only in the 50s.
126 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Upper level trough currently moving through GA will move through the Midlands this morning.
Eastern CONUS trough will be set up today with a weak S/W trough moving through the flow and set to move across the area this morning. Skies will remain cloudy overnight into the morning hours and as the S/W trough moves through, this will help to scour out the moisture and bring some sunshine this afternoon.
Additional cloud cover and weak CAA should keep Middle TN a little cooler than yesterday.
A few showers remain across the West Central Mountains this evening as a weak upper level trough continues east across the Northern Rocky Mountains. The upper level ridge will rebuild northward overnight which should bring clear skies.
Temperatures at 800 PM EST were in the lower 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area which is warmer than last night. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 37 58 38 63 / 10 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 37 52 37 60 / 10 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 35 52 37 60 / 10 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 35 50 35 55 / 10 10 20 10 0.
352 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Finally beginning to see the low clouds lift and dissipate early this morning as drier air continues to filter into the area. replacing the ridging and strong subsidence aloft.
Fairly sharp trough axis set to swing across the area late tonight into early Mon morning. An upper trough will move across Middle Tennessee overnight, bringing mainly mid-level ceilings to the mid state.
149 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid week.
325 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Low pressure over Saskatchewan is extending a trough across the western North Dakota to near the Missouri River in SD, and central NE. The eastward progression would bring the trough to eastern SD and along the SD/MN border by 18Z. Expect clouds to move into the far western counties tonight, and linger over the northeast along with cooler 850mb temperatures near 0C.
First, a slight chance of PoPs on Tuesday which should mostly be rain but could include snow and possibly freezing rain to mix in.
628 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid week. Moisture increases ahead of this system and could see a few sprinkles or a wintry mix in the highest of elevations of the WV mountains towards daybreak on Tuesday. An upper level trough will move across the area on Tuesday.
625 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid week. Moisture increases ahead of this system and could see a few sprinkles or a wintry mix in the highest of elevations of the WV mountains towards daybreak on Tuesday. An upper level trough will move across the area on Tuesday.
Despite the strong northwest wind, we are moving into a warmer airmass, and high temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees this afternoon. Southerly winds will return on Tuesday as we see mid and upper level ridging move overhead.
The low level moisture below the inversion continues to support areas of low clouds across southwest Florida as I write with scattered to broken strato-cu clouds noted across the remainder of the forecast area. Cool air advection of late will weaken today and with more sunshine expected temperature should climb into the lower 70s during the afternoon which will be some 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday's very cool temps in the 50s. High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions on the Gulf water the remainder of today with northwest winds around 10 knots and seas of 2 feet or less.
With downsloping airmass spreading over the region, temperatures are expected to be much warmer than those seen yesterday. With height rises and return to southerly flow for Tuesday, temperatures are anticipated to be similar if not a few degrees warmer.
450 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 An upper level trough is moving off to the east early this morning. Highs will top out in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
Surface ridging will shift east and lee troughing will develop as northwest flow aloft switches to the southwest Tuesday. This will occur ahead of an upper low currently off the coast of Baja California.
and Tuesday Cloud trends and the possibility of some light snow and freezing drizzle are the primary challenges for todays forecast. The moistening up of the middle layers of the atmosphere will probably produce some light snow and/or freezing drizzle depending on if the moist layer is cold enough for ice crystals.
A longwave upper trough remains situated over the eastern U. With low level heights dropping in association with the trough and somewhat greater sky cover in the northern part of the CWA, expect high temps to be a few degrees lower than yesterday.
Avery Another seasonably mild day is on tap across the region today as upper level ridging is in place for now.
High pressure will maintain VFR through this TAF cycle while winds remain very light and variable.
The trough axis of the clipper that swung through last night is now east of the area along with any sprinkles that occurred. Expect highs today to top out in the low to mid 50s.
321 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Low/mid level ridging should keep pleasant wx conditions in place thru midweek.
Low pressure over Saskatchewan is extending a trough across the western North Dakota to near the Missouri River in SD, and central NE. The eastward progression would bring the trough to eastern SD and along the SD/MN border by 18Z. Expect clouds to move into the far western counties tonight, and linger over the northeast along with cooler 850mb temperatures near 0C.
336 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Despite a weak and dry cold front that will pass south across our region today, we'll see temperatures climb around 5-10 degrees warmer this afternoon under increased H85 temperatures. The broad ridging pattern over the western CONUS will begin to gradually migrate east and flatten over the Southern Plains beginning today in response to a cutoff upper level low, currently over the SE Pacific, that will begin to move onshore tomorrow as it transitions into an open wave.
Leeward troughing develops Tuesday as an upper level trough begins to take shape across the western CONUS.
/issued 405 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Finally an above freezing night across the Midsouth. By this afternoon, the broader trough should be centered over middle Tennessee and Alabama. The highest chance for rain will be along the Tennessee River, though any accumulation will be minimal. Expect lows to be in the low 40s.
343 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 An upper level trough is moving off to the east early this morning. Highs will top out in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
/Today through Tuesday/ A weak cold front will exit the area to the southeast by sunrise this morning. More dry weather is anticipated even through another upper trough moving across the Middle Mississippi River Valley will bring another relatively diffuse frontal boundary into the area. With more sunshine and dry westerly winds, daytime temperatures should warm into the lower 70s areawide.
The wind should decrease later in the afternoon as the cold advection aloft is replaced by weak warm advection as an upper ridge moves in from the west. The upper ridge will keep mild temperatures over the region through Tuesday. As the ridge shifts off to the east on Tuesday night, an upper trough will approach from the west and a cold front will move through at the surface.
405 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Finally an above freezing night across the Midsouth. By this afternoon, the broader trough should be centered over middle Tennessee and Alabama. The highest chance for rain will be along the Tennessee River, though any accumulation will be minimal. Expect lows to be in the low 40s.
/issued 336 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Despite a weak and dry cold front that will pass south across our region today, we'll see temperatures climb around 5-10 degrees warmer this afternoon under increased H85 temperatures. The broad ridging pattern over the western CONUS will begin to gradually migrate east and flatten over the Southern Plains beginning today in response to a cutoff upper level low, currently over the SE Pacific, that will begin to move onshore tomorrow as it transitions into an open wave.
846 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid week. Moisture increases ahead of this system and could see a few sprinkles or a wintry mix in the highest of elevations of the WV mountains towards daybreak on Tuesday. An upper level trough will move across the area on Tuesday.
Cooler temperatures on Tuesday with some locations seeing a little light rain.
Temperatures are near freezing, so a few slick spots are possible this morning. Rain and drizzle could create a light glaze of ice on surfaces with temperatures around freezing. Temperatures also could be a few degrees warmer with the cloud cover, this could also limit accumulations.
Today is also the last day of air stagnation for at least the forseable future, Hooray! A low and associated cold front will push into the region later tonight bringing wetting rain to the coast, Umpqua Basin and the Oregon Cascades.
Pattern change still on track beginning Tuesday with breezy to windy conditions, cooler temperatures and possible showers over mainly the Sierra Nevada. Clear skies cover the area early this morning as the strong ridge has lifted high clouds north of the region. Milder foothill and mountain thermal belts are currently in the lower to mid 60s. High pressure will hold out for one more day of dry weather with warm temperatures.
Otherwise, mostly sunny today with highs in the low to mid 70s.
A mix of fog and low stratus will exist through this morning as high pressure briefly sets up over the region.
This will be the only impact of this system as moisture remains quite limited in the lower atmosphere.
As the trough approaches, looking for cloud cover to increase overnight, along with a shift for a few hours to a SW wind. Clouds expected to clear from west to east thru the morning hrs Monday, allowing for high pressure to set up over the area shifting SE by Tuesday. Despite the high gust potential, RH readings will be around 30 percent for the entire area.
The XMR morning sounding yielded a 2500ft thick saturated layer from near-surface through 875mb, with a deeply inverted temp profile generally existing from the low cloud level through 725mb. Morning vis sate imagery shows the lower clouds should continue to break/clear through the next several hours. Strong low pressure off the coast of North Carolina this morning is forecast to lift northeast today and tonight towards the northeast U.
/issued 352 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Finally beginning to see the low clouds lift and dissipate early this morning as drier air continues to filter into the area. replacing the ridging and strong subsidence aloft. During Tuesday the trough axis will swing across the Florida peninsula with a reinforcing shot of dry air overspreading the region for midweek. Either way it looks like some moisture will return as we get on the back side of the high moving out into the western Atlantic Ocean with a cold front moving across the region bringing the chance of a few showers. High pressure will build over the waters and persist across the region through much of the week with rather benign conditions.
Current WV satellite imagery and mesoanalysis data depict an amplified, negatively tilted H500 trough positioned over the Sern US. Additionally, corresponding ridging is ongoing over the Wrn US, with a cutoff upper low off the coast of Baja California. As upper troughing moves Ewrd Mon, strong ridging aloft will yield pleasant and calm conditions through the beginning of the work week. Temps can be expected to reach the upper 50s over Nrn AR, while the remainder of the state will see mid-60s, with lows holding steady around the lower-40s by Tues morning. Rather, a slight wind shift from Srly to Wrly will be the most notable pattern change on Tues, with warming temps into the low-60s across Nrn AR, mid-60s over Cntrl AR, and even Swrn AR seeing some low-70s.
357 AM MST Mon Nov 18 2019 Another seasonably mild day is on tap across the region today as upper level ridging is in place for now.
Satellite imagery shows clouds streaming eastward over the Lower Mississippi Valley, behind a cold front that is right on the doorstep of northwest Alabama.
By Tuesday evening, the axis of the longwave trough itself will clear the forecast area as the trough pushes east towards the Atlantic coast. Temperatures through the rest of the day and tomorrow will run between 0-4 degrees below climatological normals, with highs mainly ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s and lows mainly ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s. Upper troughs moving across the OH Valley through Tuesday still look basically dry for our area.
/issued 1113 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ One upper trough is exiting in the NW flow aloft. /issued 405 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Finally an above freezing night across the Midsouth. By this afternoon, the broader trough should be centered over middle Tennessee and Alabama. The highest chance for rain will be along the Tennessee River, though any accumulation will be minimal. Expect lows to be in the low 40s.
An upper level trough is moving off to the east early this morning. Highs will top out in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
Upper ridging builds east into the Rockies tonight, with the stronger northwest flow shifting away.
For tonight, a Pacific based cold front will shift across the region, causing winds to shift to the northwest. Temperatures behind this front are actually warmer than ahead of it, as some locations across Nebraska warmed to near 70 today.
A cold front will sweep through the area Tuesday morning bringing in a period of cloudiness in the morning followed by clearing in the afternoon. A cool area of high pressure builds into the area Tuesday night in the wake of the front bringing in cooler and drier conditions.
1240 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid week. Upper low moving into the mid Ohio Valley will move across the area later today and tonight, with increasing low level moisture as it does so. This will set the stage for the possibility of patchy drizzle tonight, with the possibility of patchy freezing drizzle across the mountains.
Incoming storm is fairly weak, but will interact with some northbound moisture coming out of a closed low in the southwest US to produce rain and some light snow for the high elevations starting very late tonight. With temperatures even at 7000ft elevation getting above freezing Tue afternoon, there should be a change over to rain or at least a mix, keeping accumulation low. Upper level ridging returns, but persistent north or northwest general wind will keep temperatures from rising back into the 50s at low elevation through at least the middle of the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the region from the west tomorrow morning.
235 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 An upper level trough was moving east across the region this afternoon. Another fast moving trough will swing through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
With dry air at the surface and the lack of cloud cover, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall a couple of degrees cooler tonight than this morning.
259 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 (Tonight and Tuesday) Weak upper level ridging will develop across West Central Texas tonight into Tuesday.
131 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 An upper level trough was moving east across the region this afternoon. Another fast moving trough will swing through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
1113 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 One upper trough is exiting in the NW flow aloft. /issued 405 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Finally an above freezing night across the Midsouth. By this afternoon, the broader trough should be centered over middle Tennessee and Alabama. The highest chance for rain will be along the Tennessee River, though any accumulation will be minimal. Expect lows to be in the low 40s.
High pressure continues today, with increased high level moisture expected. An approaching trough on Tuesday will bring some high elevation moisture across the area, with light snowfall anticipated over the West Central and Boise Mountains.
1042 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Upper level trough crossing the region will move east of the area this afternoon. Another fast moving trough will swing through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
First, temperatures will be significantly warmer tomorrow due to breezy downsloping winds. This will be in response to the next short wave trough digging down the west coast within the southern stream.
925 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Very pleasant, cool and dry conditions are in store today across southeast Texas! High pressure ridge and dry air mass will suppresscloud development and rainfall activity today and tonight. /ISSUED 321 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Low/mid level ridging should keep pleasant wx conditions in place thru midweek.
259 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Main forecast concerns this afternoon involve the high rain chances and some potential for non-severe thunderstorms mid to late week.
RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 58 38 64 43 / 0 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 53 37 59 40 / 0 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 53 36 59 40 / 0 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 50 36 55 36 / 0 20 10 0 0.
A cooler than normal day is still expected as high cloud cover streams into the region from the NW. A longwave upper trough remains situated over the eastern U. With low level heights dropping in association with the trough and somewhat greater sky cover in the northern part of the CWA, expect high temps to be a few degrees lower than yesterday.
/ISSUED 925 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Very pleasant, cool and dry conditions are in store today across southeast Texas! High pressure ridge and dry air mass will suppress cloud development and rainfall activity today and tonight.
Aside from this wind shift, the pleasant weather is expected to continue into Tuesday with mostly clear skies in the region and highs in the lower 70s.
Other ongoing story is the shield of rain moving across the eastern CWA along the warm front. Still looking at a mild day and sided with the warmer end of guidance, which brings highs in the mid 40s to low 50s for most areas. Low pressure will then organize over the Rockies Tuesday night, with easterly winds responding across the northern plains.
348 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Tonight and Tuesday: NW flow aloft in response to deep upper troughing over the eastern US has resulted in some mid to high cloud cover in the MS River Valley. Upper level heights will begin to increase on tomorrow as as an upper ridge approaches the region from the west.
An area of low pressure off the Baja coast and another low off the Pacific Northwest coast will bring significant changes to our weather starting Tuesday.
The upper low off the WA/OR coast will eventually eject the current Baja cutoff into the Plains as another long wave trough follows behind.
Usual east slope locations will see enough wly wind to keep mins near/above freezing, while mountain valleys decouple and drop to seasonably cold readings. On Tue, flow aloft gradually becomes w-sw as ridge shifts east and trough begins to lift ne into the swrn U. Could see some breezy south winds develop in the morning ahead of the lee trough near the KS border, then some increased wly gap flow will be possible during the afternoon through the Arkansas Valley and east of La Veta Pass.
640 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 An upper level trough was moving east across the region this afternoon. Another fast moving trough will swing through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
/28/ Tonight and Tuesday: NW flow aloft in response to deep upper troughing over the eastern US has resulted in some mid to high cloud cover in the MS River Valley. Upper level heights will begin to increase on tomorrow as as an upper ridge approaches the region from the west.
/Issued 259 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Main forecast concerns this afternoon involve the high rain chances and some potential for non-severe thunderstorms mid to late week.
] High pressure ridge in place will continue to result in tranquil weather conditions through the rest of the short term period. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures mostly ranged in the low 70s.
Cooling will continue overnight with the conditions being primed for strong radiational cooling: relatively calm winds, mostly clear skies, and lack of moisture which will lead to lows in the low to mid 40s across the region. With dry air at the surface and the lack of cloud cover, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall a couple of degrees cooler tonight than this morning.
Dry and mild conditions should generally continue through Tuesday as ridging over the Rockies nudges eastward over the Plains. Nrn stream troughing amplifies over the wrn U.
Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the low 50s, with some locations in western Volusia potentially recording values in the upper 40s, several degrees below average for mid November. NW winds increasing up to 15 kt after 14Z with passage of upper trough. The High Surf Advisory will remain in effect through tonight's high tide cycle, but with subsiding seas, will be allowed to expire.
High pressure ridge in place will continue to result in tranquil weather conditions through the rest of the short term period. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures mostly ranged in the low 70s.
With increasing clouds just before sunrise tomorrow morning (foretelling the coming weather), we'll see low temperatures just a bit warmer than they were this morning.
Mixing down of warmer air aloft has allowed places such as Chamberlain, Gregory, Yankton, and Vermillion to break 60 degrees this afternoon. Temperatures Tuesday remain warmer than seasonal averages with ridging aloft; however, without strong surface mixing, afternoon highs will be cooler than those felt Monday.
745 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 A deep U/L trough will extend over the eastern U. with a strong U/L disturbance exiting the trough across the mid Atlantic and northeastern states tonight and Tuesday. The associated U/L trough axis will push across the Florida peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday.
With increasing clouds just before sunrise tomorrow morning (fortelling the coming weather), we'll see low temperatures just a bit warmer than they were this morning.