Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile in western MN, the RAP shows 925mb temps increasing to near 7C behind the morning rain, so we should see some highs up into the low 50s out in west central and southwest MN. Tonight, we will be dominated by height rises as we await the arrival of an inverted trough and another surge of cold air moving across northern MN through the night. Monday will be a cool day with cyclonic flow overhead as the mid/upper low pivots from the Great Lakes to western Quebec.
248 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Another chilly night in progress, although not as cold as last night, with a good chunk of the area seeing temperatures at or below freezing. Temperatures today will be much warmer under the influence of the southerly low level flow, with highs likely to be within a couple of degrees of seasonal normals in most spots. Yet another cold front will begin to move through the region after midnight tonight, clearing southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas by mid to late Monday morning. The front will initially come through without any precipitation, instead ushering in cooler temperatures and gusty northerly winds.
Weak ridge drifting over the area this morning continues to erode clouds across northeast Wisconsin. Will time best precipitation chances along and or just ahead of the cold front passage, which includes eastern Wisconsin this evening. Precipitation expected to diminish or end late tonight into Monday morning after the cold front passage. Some potential of a light snow accumulation across the north near the low pressure system.
As a result, our eastern counties may experience highs only in the 40s, especially the higher elevations.
306 AM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central Manitoba, with warm front extending south-southwest into the Northern Plains and a cold front stretching across western ND into MT. Upper level analysis continues to show fast northwest flow across the region between trough over the eastern US and a ridge along the west coast. Temps are mild early this morning ahead of the cold front, ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s. Cold front will race southeast across the area this morning, with northwesterly winds developing and increasing through the late morning and afternoon hours. Temperature will drop enough across the higher northern Black Hills for some snowfall this afternoon, but any accumulations should generally be an inch or less.
Attention is mostly focused on a cold front that will move thru Mon AM/PM ahead of an upper jet max and associated shrtwv trof that will move thru Tue. As upper jet max and associated shrtwv trof approach mid level lift will increase and mid levels will moisten with high based precip initially favored, but the column will moisten from the top down with precip expected. Mid level ridging Fri/Sat to ensure warm wx continues.
A cold front should push through the GUY TAF site by late in this forecast switching the winds around to the north and northeast.
However, by this afternoon the upper level trough will be shifting east of the forecast area. Most of the region will top out in the mid 40s, however with the upper low and cloud cover in place. The night will begin with surface ridging and northwesterly flow aloft. East central KY may see a brief dip to freezing temps or just below around 06Z, but then rise again after. Given the lack of confidence in hazardous frost/freezing temps tonight, have decided to hold off on headlines for now. Monday will be quite a bit warmer, though a cold front will move through during the afternoon.
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A relatively nice afternoon is being observed across the local area as light westerly winds have developed and begun advecting warmer air in from the west. expect a cold front to rapidly approach from the north during the late morning hours. where cooler air should begin filtering in before the time of peak heating. Cool air is expected to filter in behind the aforementioned cold front Sunday night.
Southern WI will be under a weak high pressure ridge today. This afternoon, there will be a small area of 925-850mb warm air advection (WAA) nosing into south central WI ahead of the next closed upper low that will be traversing southern Canada and the Upper Midwest today. The air will saturate from the top down, so precip chances wait until the low level forcing/moisture arrives. We'll continue to see a mid level trough dig across the Great Lakes on Monday.
Strong high pressure settles into South Texas during the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to slide south across Texas tonight and settle over the region through the overnight hours.
High pressure that has provided above normal temperatures for the state over the past few days will begin to weaken over the region tonight as a cold front moves through the state.
Then, by early Monday, another cold front associated with an upper low moving into the Great Lakes will dive south into northern OK.
324 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Today will be the last warm day for the next few days as a cold front will work its way south across the Panhandles starting late tonight through the early morning hours on Monday. However, for today, west to southwesterly flow will advect some warmer temperatures into the region with high temperatures well into the 70s. Starting late tonight into early tomorrow morning, a cold front will work its way south across the Panhandles and should exit the southern TX Panhandle by day break on Monday. Behind the cold front in the morning hours on Monday, winds will be quite gusty out of the northeast due to steep height gradients following the cold front itself.
Both cold fronts and warm fronts will cross our state several times over next 7 days, causing a variety of weather.
252 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Sunny and warmer temperatures (near normal) are expected today as a surface lee trough forms and intensifies across the high plains as a large upper trough continues to progress across the eastern half of the nation. The warming will be short-lived as another upper trough amplifies across the northern half of the nation on Monday. This trough will send a strong cold front south through the forecast area during the day Monday. Prefer a quicker frontal passage and the cooler NAM, ARW and NMM guidance due to its better resolution.
339 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Strong cold air advection began yesterday as a cold front moved through and will continue to bring in the coldest temps to the area since last winter/spring today. The base of the very amplified upper level trough is currently moving across the CWA this morning. While this will lead to cold temps overnight, quickly ejecting upper trough will increase heights and keep lows from falling as much as this morning. The next few days will be fairly quiet as high pressure builds into the area while slowly shifting east.
Interestingly, where the clouds cleared out over central IA, morning lows dropped into the low to mid 20s. Surface ridging and WAA will lead to a nice day once the clouds finally scatter out. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 30s as a cold front moves across the region.
The cold front we are waiting for early this morning seems to currently be hung up in east central Montana, on the cusp of sinking southward through our CWA and into the foothills. Precipitation begins to taper off later tonight, but another lobe of energy in the cyclonic flow rotates across the high plains in the early morning hours tonight that looks to keep isolated to scattered precipitation in place across most areas early Monday. Wind chill values Monday afternoon will be at or below freezing across the area so bundle up the kids well for school Monday. Confidence remains high in a cooler and wetter pattern setting up for the second half of the week.
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over srn TX, providing for a light nrly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows deep troffing digging through the Mississippi Valley maintaining a dry nwrly flow aloft. however no obs show freezing temps as of yet.
151 AM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Large scale trough over the eastern US and ridge across the western US remain in place, with northerly flow across the Plains (including our CWA). At the Surface a trough axis currently bisects our CWA, with a stalled front near the Colorado border. Surface winds shift to the west overnight with increasing WAA through the night, and most locations should see overnight lows above freezing for the first time in several nights. This trough will push a cold front towards our CWA, and current guidance has this passage late enough in the afternoon to allow for a good window of WAA over at least the southerly half of our CWA. This will again depend on the timing of the cold front (the earlier the stronger the winds).
For tonight, the cold front tied to the next system will be pushing very quickly south across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
254 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Near-normal temperatures make a brief return today as surface flow returns to the south and warmer conditions build in from the west aloft; however, these milder temperatures will be pushed quickly to the south by another cold front late tonight. As has been the case with the previous fronts in this repetitive pattern, breezy northwest winds will follow the frontal passage, then the colder air will filter down ~24 hours later as the upper trough carves southward, making Halloween the coolest of the next several days.
1123 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A large upper level high pressure ridge along the west coast extending from northern Baja California to northern British Columbia will produce rather strong northerly flow aloft across the northern Rockies. Snowfall in the lower elevations should be an inch or two with locally higher amounts in the foothills areas. Mountain snowfall of 2 to 5 inches is expected with the highest amounts in the Bighorn mountains and on Casper Mountain.
400 AM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A mild day across the CWA ahead of a cold front now moving across central and eastern Montana. Not out of the question to see a little freezing drizzle this evening but should not have much effect. Some reduction in visibility is also possible, as well as some mixed phase precip over KCYS in the form of freezing drizzle or snow pellets. Cold front will move south across the districts late this morning through the afternoon switching winds out of the north to northeast.
The winds will mainly be out of the northwest, but will swing around to the southwest as the ridge axis shifts to the east of the area this evening.
Growing Confidence in a Pattern Change to Cold and Valley Snow Latest satellite imagery and current observations indicate the Canadian cold front is tracking into Montana early this morning. As the cold front makes its way south and westward today, winds along the terrain in north-central Idaho, along the MT/ID border, and in southwest Montana should elevate tonight through Monday morning.
Not expecting major freezing concerns at this time, but some low lying areas might briefly experience near freezing temperatures. Overall, another pleasant day in store today across South Texas, with clear skies and high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Dry and Warmer. Lots of sunshine today, along with light winds mainly from the southwest, will help produce afternoon highs much closer to seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. For tonight, winds from the south in the 10 to 15 mph range will help produce lows warmer than the previous two nights; numbers mainly in the lower to mid 40s look likely. Ahead of another cold front, dry conditions will continue, along with temperatures close to seasonal normals. Another cold front may begin to move into our far northwestern counties prior to the time of maximum heating Monday afternoon. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the lower to mid 40s, as colder air moves across our counties with the front.
246 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 An upper level ridge will be building into the region today and winds will shift to the southwest and west. This will not last long as another cold front will be moving through tonight and early morning Monday.
Sunny and warm again today before a back-door dry cold front comes into Idaho from the east and northeast Monday. Our forecast is between the two but closer to the cooler and less windy MET.
The cold front has now pushed east of Auburn and Troy, with rain behind the front along and east of a line from Roanoke to eastern portions of the Montgomery metro. As the upper level trough swings through, expect cloud cover to increase especially across the northeast.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):A fine day coming up for the latter half of the weekend as high pressure controls the surface conditions, with dry northwesterly flow aloft behind the large-scale H5 trough moving into the eastern US.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with Ridge rising up the from California into southern British COlumbia and a trough running down from the Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. In between the middle third of the CONUS and Canada are caught under north to northwest flow with a meso- ridge over Wyoming and a meso-trough entering Montana as the chinook shuts off. This meso-trough has tapped into some of the modified Arctic air over the Northwest Territories. Today through tonight: Cold front will move across the region early this morning bringing a brief round of scattered rain showers.
High pressure and very dry conditions will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. 40") will preclude much if any cloud cover (perhaps some passing CI traveling around the base of the H25 trough).
325 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Cold front is currently clearing the far SE zones within the CWFA. High pressure will build in from the west through the short term period. Sustained winds around 20mph will be possible across the entire CWFA, with slightly higher sustained winds in the highest elevations. There could be another tier of counties just to the south that could potentially be included within the warning, but confidence is not as high at this time that the majority of the county will see freezing temperatures. High pressure will move closer to overhead on Monday.
Broadly speaking, a somewhat amplified mid level pattern continues across the conus, with ridging over the western conus, and troffing in the central and east. Warm air aloft and near or slightly below freezing temps at the sfc late tnt may set up a brief period of sleet/freezing rain over the northeast part of the CWA. An upper level trough will dominate the weather picture for the central and eastern U.
High pressure centered along the Pacific Coast will maintain a dry and mild northerly flow across the Great Basin today. A cold front will cross the area from north to south late tonight through Monday, followed by a mild west to southwest flow for the end of the week.
538 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: High pressure and VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The winds will mainly be out of the northwest, but will swing around to the southwest as the ridge axis shifts to the east of the area this evening.
330 AM PDT Sun Oct 29 2017 High pressure will weaken today over the region as a low pressure system moves into Southern California Sunday night.
The band has mostly moved to the east, but with the upper low continuing to dig into the upper midwest there will be more precip moving into our northeastern counties later today. Tonight, the upper low will continue to dig further south into the Great Lakes, with northwest flow over our CWA.
/issued 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Meridional flow will continue through Sunday as the large trough moves off the east coast. Lee troughing and southwesterly surface winds will help us to warm up to the 70s tomorrow. Current runs show the front approaching around 12Z, which will limit our warm up on Monday with highs ranging from 50 in the NW to the low 60s in the SE.
Proton Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A hot high pressure heat dome lies over the western third of the CONUS and southern British Columbia. A much cooler trough drops down from the Hudson bay through the northern half of the US Plains. Northwest flow has set up between these two large airmasses with northeast Montana under the cooler side of this flow pattern.
An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather over the region but with one minor influence. This will be enough to weaken the thermal trough and allow a very weak marine push to take place Friday afternoon and evening.
While shear is on the low side, moderate instability and moist mid levels will allow some organization.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are developing across Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma ahead of the next cold front. A potent upper trough moving from the Upper Mississippi Valley and across the Great Lakes will push the front towards the area tonight. In addition, most of the forcing with the upper trough will be far northeast of the area. The best rain chances will be south of Interstate 20 across Deep East Texas eastward into Central Louisiana where the higher moisture levels will be located.
Friday will be a little warmer with highs in the lower 80s on Friday as the near surface return flow around the high becomes more southerly. The upper low over the north central U. moves towards the Great Lakes region rotating a short wave trough through the upper northwest flow that moves into the northern sections of the forecast area late Friday. A lee trough deepens along the front range in response to the flow aloft and starts moving east over eastern Colorado during the late afternoon hours.
645 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front continues across northern Oklahoma and southern Missouri.
1212 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread slowly E overnight in response to available moisture and increasing overall ascent on the eastern flank of the eastward digging upper trough moving into Wisconsin. The upper trough's associated cold front will increase shower/storm chances during the day as it approaches.
1215 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Thunderstorms will continue across the area through early this morning ahead of a strong cold front and associated vigorous upper level system. Much cooler weather will arrive Friday with highs only in the 60s over northwest Indiana and the lower 70s over most of northwest Ohio.
1158 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will remain stalled over southern Quebec through tonight and will lift north on Friday.
802 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Friday and bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially west of the Blue Ridge, late Friday afternoon into Friday night. High pressure will then bring fair and somewhat cooler weather for the first part of the weekend.
The influence of the cooler air will keep highs in the 70s and low 80s.
Through the day tomorrow, the northwesterly flow aloft is going to be advecting in drier and warmer air, which may keep shower activity from developing through the afternoon. Upper level ridge has shifted west over CA bringing increasing NW flow over the state. Currently the passage of a cold front earlier today as left strong NNE flow on the plains and cloud cover keeping conditions more stable. Upper level SE flow will allow for some storms to move off the higher terrain and onto the wester portions of the plains and south to the Palmer Divide through the late afternoon. With increasing sunny skies and downsloping temperatures will rebound back into the lower 80s.
In these areas high temperatures today were more than 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. A weak upper low, currently centered about 350 miles west of San Francisco, is forecast to lift slowly to the northeast over the next three days. The low may trigger additional shower/thunderstorm activity as it approaches the coast later in the weekend. However, if the low tracks to our north as the GFS forecasts, the flow aloft over our area would shift from southeast to southwest, bringing much drier air into our region and preventing any further convective precipitation activity this weekend.
West of this trough, models indicate a deeply mixed and very dry boundary layer developing.
1135 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cooler and drier air will continue to spread into the area tonight through Friday as upper trough currently moving into the lower Missouri Valley this afternoon swings east and digs across the Ohio Valley. Will carry a period of sprinkles for the early evening in northern and eastern parts of the area as upstream radars show some light returns dropping south with the upper trough this afternoon.
Moist southerly flow is then expected to develop ahead of an approaching upper trough axis dropping southeast through the Ozark Plateau and lower OH/TN valleys late tonight. Thunderstorms and showers should then return by 12Z along the approaching upper trough/cold front entering northwest TN. The trough axis and front will be in close vertical proximity during the day on Friday with at least scattered if not numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Models are in fairly close agreement showing our cold front moving into our west/northwest counties by mid evening, and extending from southeast Illinois into far southeast Missouri by 06z Friday. Models show the cold front just southeast of the PAH fa at 12z Friday, so good chances will linger in our southeast counties Friday morning.
649 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Upper closed low south of the Aleutians and a strong Hudson Bay low allowing a sharp warm ridge along the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. Strong Bermuda high off the east coast with trough from the Hudson Bay low into the Mississippi Valley. Next major wave over the western Provinces of Canada as seen in water vapor and will allow for even cooler air to be rotated into the northern plains.
A cold front continues to move south across the Midwest, extending from near Chicago, southwest across central MO and into the Southern Plains.
A well-developed cyclone was moving across the region bringing clouds, showers, wind, and cool temperatures. Not expecting any further heating this afternoon given the strong northerly wind and low clouds associated with this cyclone. The longer term trends continue to indicate a cooler than normal period with northwest flow dominating.
1130 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Storms may persist after dark (00-06z Sat) given degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper level system and seasonably strong surface cold front. Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be entering the region after max heating with waning instability. But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for developing convection during the afternoon.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ WV imagery shows a longwave trough extending from the PacNW to the MS Valley and beyond, buttressed against an upper ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving a long fetch of NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A cold front associated w/the trough is making its way south thru the Central Plains, but observations and models suggest it won't get much further south into Texas before sfc flow veers to the east and halts it. Over the next few days, a trough moving onshore at NoCal, and another digging out of Canada, will flatten the trough south toward Mexico.