Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
219 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a strong 500 mb ridge over the ern U. The trough will move into the northern and central plains 00z Tue while the ridge moves to New England and the lower Great Lakes.
206 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Warmer through mid week with dry conditions continuing. Cooler towards the end of the week with lighter winds. A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region and remain in place through midweek.
245 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 This slow to evolve weekend system is finally beginning to push a cold front eastward into Minnesota and Iowa this afternoon. The primary upper trough will eject northeast late on Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
655 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast.
1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A prominent mid-level trough centered over the Great Basin early this morning will edge east into the central Rockies by tonight before ejecting northeast across the northern and central Plains Monday and Monday night.
310 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Not much change with the overall pattern this afternoon, with upper level ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS and a trough to the west. A slow-moving cold front extended from western Minnesota southwest into western Kansas.
A cold front is still expected to make its way across the area Monday and bring more chances for heavy rain. The end of the week finally will see some dry weather as zonal flow takes over as a closed low lifts out of the far southwest US.
Temperatures started off a bit cooler in some areas, so the hourly temperatures needed some adjustment the rest of the morning. However, the near record highs in the lower 90s still look good.
The upper air pattern hasn't changed much at all with the upper high centered to the north of the area putting us in an easterly flow regime.
/Issued 1049 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Only adjustment for near term was to slow warming temp trend in otherwise nice quiet day on tap with ridge dominated regime. 00Z model guidance in very good agreement showing weak upper low caught inside long wave, high amplitude ridge to continue drifting southwest away from the state taking any convection with it. Still looking at dry and above seasonal normal temperatures through the work week as the region remains under weak upper ridging with persistent northeasterly low-level flow maintaining a stable airmass over the forecast area. Will see milder temperatures and at least a slight chance for precipitation returning as we head into the weekend as the upper ridge breaks down. VFR conditions expected with area dominated by high pressure.
A deep longwave trof and associated frontal zone across the western states will make slow progress east over the next several days.
240 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure will remain in place through the first part of the week, then slowly weaken its grip over the area by the midweek as Hurricane Maria moves northward through the Western Atlantic. A cold front will move through late in the week, bringing more seasonable temperatures. High pressure across the Great Lakes extends down into the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. A few cumulus clouds seen on visible satellite across the ridge tops, which should dissipate upon sunset. With full insolation under the ridge, DCA along with a couple of other sites have reached 90 degrees. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s should set the stage for tonight, as skies should remain clear and winds will be light.
An area of low pressure may pull moisture back into eastern Arizona by the middle and end of the week supporting some late season showers and storms. An anomalously strong low pressure system across UT is producing a cool and dry northwesterly flow across the Desert Southwest. Temperatures across the area are generally a degree or two warmer than those observed 24 hours ago, while dewpoints are running a few degrees lower. The aforementioned low pressure system will weaken overnight while lifting northeastward. Another weak vort max will dive through the broad western CONUS trough Monday, but will only result in some high clouds during the day.
308 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Quiet fcst period continues with dry and abnormally warm airmass due to amplified ridging and likely even some aided subsidence from Hurricane Maria off the southeast coast.
120 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure continues to provide warm and sunny conditions across the Bluegrass state. High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. A few afternoon CU will be possible today, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region.
The closed upper low near the Gulf Coast and the high pressure ridge along the eastern seaboard will retrograde through this period, but there will be virtually no change in the sensible weather across the area compared to today.
259 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic states will extend south into our region through Monday. Subsidence associated with the stacked anticyclone centered over the NE and Mid-Atlantic states will support dry and stables conditions across central NC. Under mostly clear/fair skies, lows tonight will once again fall into the lower to mid 60s. Deep layer ridging centered over NY will prevail across the region on Monday, before weakening/breaking-down Monday evening/night as Maria continues to move north-northwest, paralleling the Carolina Coast. The pressure gradient between the high to our north and Maria will also begin to tighten, producing wind gusts in the mid to upper teens. Owing to the increase in clouds/moisture, low temps Monday night will be a few degrees warmer than past recent nights.
Surface wise, our area lies on the extreme southern extent of a massive, albeit anticyclone centered over the northeast United States with Hurricane Maria well offshore of the Florida east central coast. Despite a mid and especially well developed cyclonic flow above 400 mb, our region will lie between exiting Hurricane Maria moving parallel to the eastern Seaboard and high pressure will north over the eastern continental United Stats. Pending on the depth(coupled versus decoupled which has predominated) and location of the mid latitude trough axis will ultimately determine both coverage and amount of potential rainfall across our region.
602 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather into mid week. No changes were needed for the evening update as stacked high pressure continues to support unseasonable warmth and precip suppression. The ridge remains in place on Monday, although heights over our area tick back as the upper high center shifts east and fills every so slightly.
153 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Strong high pressure will remain over the region early this week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. The axis of the upper ridge will move into the area today with 500mb heights gt 590dm and 850mb temperatures around +20 degC. A relatively deep layer of dry air within this upper ridge will combine with large scale suppression to keep skies mostly sunny today and allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. With a very warm summer like high pressure still sitting lazily on top of the area, we can expect yet another night with valley fog Monday night with lows of mainly lower-mid 60s.
WV imagery shows deep upper trough centered over northern Utah with good fetch of moisture continuing to stream northward into the central and eastern Dakotas.
Wet and cool conditions tonight and Monday with heavy rainfall Broad upper trough across the Southwest is starting to make eastward progress toward west Texas.
301 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The upper level low that we've been talking about for the past several days is finally having its impact on the Midsouth with scattered thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon. Tomorrow there will be another slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, particularly in northwest MS and eastern AR where the greatest influence of the upper level low looks to take place.
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to pop up this afternoon ahead of the cold front over the eastern Dakotas, where boundary layer heating has resulted in 3-hour MLCAPE increases of 100-200 J/kg over western Minnesota. In the big picture, the western upper trough will lift northeast and work its way across our area through midweek. Ridging will re-build across the west during that time, with northwest flow setting up over our area for the second half of the week. The western ridge will then flatten as it shifts east toward our area over the upcoming weekend.
115 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic states will extend south into our region through Monday. Subsidence associated with the stacked anticyclone centered over the NE and Mid-Atlantic states will support dry and stables conditions with a continuation of above-normal temperatures across central NC as afternoon temperatures top out once again in the mid to upper 80s. However, a steady 5 to 10 kt northerly breeze coupled with afternoon dewpoints mixing out in the lower 60s will make it rather pleasant. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. In addition, the high pressure inland combined with Marie offshore will allow for a tightening pressure gradient.
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast.
220 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure will keep dry and very warm weather across our region through the first half of the week.
208 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A cold upper low pressure low center over Utah and southwest Wyoming will lift north and east. The lower mountains, Owl Creek, Green, Rattle Snake and Casper mountains can expect 2 to 4 inches.
148 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Upper level high pressure will remain in place over the eastern Great Lakes through Monday, keeping the unseasonably warm air in place for our area. Highs on Monday are again expected to reach the lower 90s, which should threaten records in a few areas.
Increased dew point values in the upper 60s will send heat indices into the low to mid 90 degree range. Deep moisture advection across the Southern to Central Plains areas ahead of a deepening upper trough has fueled widespread showers/storms across much of western Kansas and central Nebraska. This activity should remain outside the local area this afternoon as broad ridging lifts north over the eastern CONUS, steering precipitation generally along a southwest to northeast axis along central Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. Initially, the eastward propagating upper jet ahead of the trough will provide broad-scale ascent for scattered storms through much of Monday.
An upper ridge and low level offshore flow will bring sunshine and warmer weather in the middle of the week. A weak front and an upper trough will bring cooler weather and possibly some showers late in the week. Highs will be a few degrees cooler Monday with additional cloudiness.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): The region will remain trapped in an area of weakness aloft, as a mid/upper level trough deepens across the western half of the US and a weak area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf coast states slowly drifts westward. As the western trough builds eastward Monday and Monday night, deep layer moisture will be on the increase, with the dry pocket between 500 and 700 mb effectively eliminated.
Upper low pressure spinning over northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming will bring scattered showers and below average temperatures to the area over the next 24 hours. Over the mountains and high valleys there is no low level upslope flow to bring in the low clouds. There may be a few evening showers or thunderstorms around but after the sun sets, there should be quite a bit of clearing leading to freezing temperatures in many areas by Monday morning. Leadville, that was already down to 31 degrees this morning, will probably drop into the lower 20s.
309 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Early this afternoon, the center of a large western trough was located over Utah. The low will lift slowly northeast into the northern Plains over the next several days.
156 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low along the Utah/Nevada border with a deep trough of low pressure extending south into the Gulf of California. East of the trough, a blocking high was located over the LP of Michigan with a low south of the high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is in response to the surface front being pushed further east as the upper level low lifts from Utah into Wyoming.
/issued 1118 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Persistence continues to rule the fcst, as the upper ridge maintains its influence on our region. Temps fcst to top out in the low to mid 90s with a chance for a few isold tstms to develop this aftn.
1259 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Deep upper trough over the Great Basin early this morning will lift slowly eastward through the Rockies today and tonight. Farther east, plains and eastern mountains will keep enough moisture in place for sct showers today and tonight, as shallow upslope behind the cold front near the NM border persists. Snow will be limited to the higher peaks of the eastern mountains, with perhaps some light accumulations near the summit of Pikes Peak through the day. Max temps today will remain below average across the region, as cooler air continues to spread south across CO and clouds/precip hold readings down over the plains.
Forecast confidence is high: High pressure to the east will pull away tonight into Monday as a weak trough approaches. Southerly low level flow between the approaching trough and departing high will keep an unseasonably warm airmass in the area.
232 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The area continues to be covered under the western periphery of a high pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley. The high pressure is expected to move into the northeast US tonight. The long wave trough will move closer to the region on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon in central Missouri.
302 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Upper low over northeast Utah and slowly weakening and moving slowly northeast into Wyoming. There is some weak ascent aloft ahead of the low and this is helping to generate some very light rain and drizzle over the Front Range and portions of the northeast plains. Expect the low stratus deck to remain anchored in place tonight and at least through Monday morning with shallow and moist upslope flow in place. The main trof axis will still linger over Western Colorado through Monday with weak ascent continuing through eastern Colorado.
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Early this morning, water vapor imagery depicted a large upper low centered over the Great Basin, with a tropical connection from the Eastern North Pacific and Mexico northward into the central High Plains and Northern Plains. Much cooler air in the 40s/50s resides behind the front, with warmer than normal temperatures in the 60s/70s out ahead of the front.
345 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved from NV to UT over the past 24 hours, and will continue to be the main influence on the forecast into the extended.
350 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A weak backdoor cold front will stall over Downeast areas by late tonight. then lift back northeast a warm front Monday.
656 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure will remain in place through the first part of the week, then slowly weaken its grip over the area by the midweek as Hurricane Maria moves northward through the Western Atlantic. A cold front will move through late in the week, bringing more seasonable temperatures. High pressure across the Great Lakes extends into the Mid Atlantic. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s should set the stage for tonight, as skies should remain clear and winds will be light.
308 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. H5 ridge will remain over the Appalachians tonight. For the overnight low, they should drop to the lower 60s in general. On Monday H5 ridge weakens from the south, due to the presence of Hurricane Maria. The ridge, although weaker, will hold again Monday night. Lows will be a little warmer, ranging from 60 to 65.
A better chance of more light rain will enter the picture for late Monday and Monday night as upper low over Utah lifts northeast across the far Northern Plains. Temperatures through Monday will remain cooler than normal during the day given expansive cloud cover.
A gradual warming trend will continue through the first half of the workweek as high pressure across the eastern Pacific builds over California. Sunny conditions persist over the region this afternoon as the air mass aloft warms in response to weak offshore flow and building high pressure over the eastern Pacific.
308 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The large upper level trof that has been over the Rockies today, with its closed low over the Four Corners, will find the closed low opening up and lifting north before reforming in eastern Montana by Monday evening. Pieces of energy embedded in the lee side of the trof, will lift into the area tonight and Monday. Plenty of FGEN from the surface to 850mb right ahead of the upper trof.
320 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Large scale flow turns more progressive the next several days as strengthening ridge off the west coast kicks downstream trof eastward out of the rockies.
156 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue into the middle of the new week underneath high pressure. High pressure remains in command. Aloft, the flow between the ridge axis to our northeast and a weak upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley should result in some cirrus overspreading the CWA tonight. The ridge remains in place on Monday, although heights over our area tick back as the upper high center shifts east and fills every so slightly.
1202 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the period as high pressure will dominate. Anyway, analysis shows a closed upper low in the vicinity of the Florida Panhandle region this morning. At the surface, a front is currently stalled out in the high plains, with high pressure covering much of the lower Mississippi Valley. The high will keep any large-scale convection suppressed over the next two days. However, with the upper low in place, we can't rule out any isolated showers/storms as daytime heating interacts with any mesoscale boundaries and weak energy associated with the low.
High temps should be 4-8 degrees cooler than those from today. Initial rains are expected to create only isolated and minor run-off concerns through midday Monday, although a few of the higher resolution models yesterday signaled an isolated pocket of heavy rain already into the DRT area by daybreak Monday.
An amplified pattern continues with a long wave trough over the Great Basin and an Eastern Pacific ridge nosing in over western Canada. The ridge will gradually build inland allowing the warming trend to continue this week.
Boundary should push far enough to get the far east back into cooler temperatures so minimums should range generally in the 40s.
259 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A closed upper low was located in northeast Utah this afternoon. The cold front is now east of the forecast area. As the upper low lifts into central Wyoming overnight, two distinct disturbance will move through the forecast area. On Monday, The upper trough will lift into the western Dakotas and Nebraska panhandle. The upper trough axis will swing across western Nebraska Monday night, providing one last shot for showers. The highest chance will be in the evening from near 60 percent east of Broken Bow through Atkinson, and 30 to 50 percent to the west.
547 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Large scale flow turns more progressive the next several days as strengthening ridge off the west coast kicks downstream trof eastward out of the rockies.
High pressure over the Great Basin will force weak to moderate offshore flow over Southern California for most of the week. The dry northeast winds will lower humidity, and bring much warmer days and continued cool nights. these winds are bringing very dry and much warmer conditions to the valleys with temperatures about 10 degrees above yesterdays readings, and dewpoints as much as 20 to 30 degrees lower.
338 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The closed low over northern Utah will eject northeast across Wyoming on Monday and onto the Northern Plains by Monday night. A ridge of high pressure will be anchored over the western US through most of the workweek.
330 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Record highs continue to fall here in southeastern Michigan with the upper level omega block/ridge in place over virtally all of eastern North America. The centroid to the upper level ridge axis has now drifted to the east, but wavelength is large enough that a main chunk continues to grip the area. Local maximum in thermal ridge supported temperatures running over 90 degrees in many locations. The thermal ridge axis will drift away from the state Monday allowing southwesterly return flow to finally set up over the area. The arrival of return flow is usually a harbinger of warmer weather with warm air advection, but for this particular scenario the area will actually see some cooling. Will continue to favor a warmer solution with some increase in mixing heights.
VFR conditions are expected through Monday as southern Wisconsin sits under the western edge of high pressure. Mostly sunny skies are expected today under high pressure. Look for another day of hot weather across southern Wisconsin as we remain under the western periphery of a massive upper level ridge. Still looking at 582dm plus heights with lingering anticyclonic curvature around the mid level ridge slowly shifting to our east.
the main wx concern will focus on a combination of strong surface ridging over the Midwest/Mississippi Valley and a digging/developing lee-side trough over the Front Range. As the trough sets up by the afternoon hrs. The other issue for today will focus on the positioning of the trough going into the afternoon hrs. Any convection will begin to wane as the evening progresses leaving the area with a chance for showers as the trough shifts eastward. the remnants of the lee-side trough sit out over the Plains creating the conditions for more rw/trw development as the day progresses.
Unsettled today behind a cold front with showers and gusty northwest winds. The cold front continues to move through the forecast area this morning, having already moved through Boise.
1044 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 A review of Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity data this morning shows scattered showers and thunderstorms along with areas of lighter rain west of the Seven Mile Bridge, while isolated showers are occurring east of the Seven Mile Bridge. An upper-level composite analysis across the region reveals a well-developed mid/upper-tropospheric cold-core cyclone over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough at lower altitudes. Satellite-derived total precipitable water measurements indicate drier air aloft associated with ridging/anticyclonic flow over Cuba and the Straits of Florida, moving north-northwestward. An area of low pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move westward over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight.