Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA AND NEARING ABERDEEN. COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT WHILE WARMER 30S RESIDE TO THE WEST. EXPECT QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA AT THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A FAVORABLE WESTERLY MIXING WIND WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA.
SECONDARY BAND OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER S FL AFTER 20-21Z WITH COLD FRONT AND PUSH OFFSHORE 03-04Z. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF THIS MORNING, DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF AND WITH THE 150KT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE SOUNDING THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, LIKELY DUE TO THE ONGOING RAIN. THE NEXT CONCERN BEHIND THIS LINE WILL BE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY ON TAP AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST INDUCING EVEN MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND WARMING. LOCALLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ALONG INTERSTATE 25 DUE TO MIXING AND WINDS. WINDS OVER THE HIGH WIND WARNING LOCALES WILL LIKELY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT THOUGH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THUS WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WARNING INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT HOURS RATHER THAN HAVE TWO SEPARATE HIGH WIND WARNINGS.
158 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER. UNDER THE RIDGE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE DRIER AIR. BUT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS DOES MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY BUT THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MIXING NEAR BOUNDARY PASSAGE THEN POTENTIAL FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON. I STILL BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S BUT 50'S DO NOT LOOK AS PROMISING GIVEN THE MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER US RATHER THAN BIG RIDGING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
1157 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 ALOFT: AIRCRAFT/RAOB DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA WITH A TROF IN THE E. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE WRN RIDGE TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE E. THIS AFTERNOON A SFC TROF WILL MATURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND DRIFT E INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 338 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN U. A WEAKENING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIM THE ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING A BIT.
1011 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL PROMOTE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER NERN WY. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. COOLER FOR FRIDAY.
316 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HAVE ADDED 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE STALLED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE 12-20 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR A POTENTIAL BAND OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BASED UPON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD MIXING AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROPAGATES EAST AS A WARM FRONT.
Hourly temperature trends this morning are on track, but overall high temperatures may be a tad on the high side, especially if the second round of rain pans out.
404 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY COMPLETE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. COOLING LOW LEVELS DUE TO DIURNAL AND WET BULBING PROCESSES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO SNOW AS SOUNDING PROFILES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM BELOW 2000 FEET AND UP. WHILE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO AS MUCH AS HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS NEARER THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA STATE LINES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING USHERS IN A COOLER AIRMASS. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON NEARER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
102 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS. A BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. COLD UPR TROFG. MARGINAL LLVL LAPSE RATES AND TROF PROGRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR AREAS ALNG AND N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE TROF EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRI AFTN.
A low pressure system across the Great Lakes will move east through today and tonight. The cold front associated with this system will move through this evening into the overnight hours.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
BUT LIKELY STILL REACH THE LOWER 60S. SOME HAVE WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE ORIGIN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY RELATIVE TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DATA SPARSE NORTH PACIFIC.
227 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SKYROCKET INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY SPOTS. THE RELATIVE WARMTH WILL NOT LAST AS A COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MOISTURE DEPTH UP TO A SUFFICIENT HEIGHT TO INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED ASCENT SHOULD SUFFICE TO GENERATE SEVERAL INCHES OF RELATIVELY EFFICIENT SNOW IN THE RIDGES. PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DURATION OF THE FLOW DIRECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HORIZON.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT AROUND MORE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WAA TO KICK IN PRETTY QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT SINCE SOME WEAK SURFACE WAA WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY KICKING EAST AND TRAVERSING THE STATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. A WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE COOLER LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE WARMER LOWER 60S SOUTH UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. 39 THE EXTENDED STARS OFF DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1118 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 THE 07Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WISCONSIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE MILD WEATHER IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF 7C TO 12C/.
SOME MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT THESE FLURRIES MAY HELP MOISTEN THINGS A BIT. MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR A BRIEF MIX AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY MAKE THE MID 30S OR WARMER IN SOME AREAS TODAY.
933 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL PROMOTE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER NERN WY. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. COOLER FOR FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ Even with a weak surface trof moving across the forecast area Today.
SHORT RANGE MODELS A BIT OVERDONE WITH ITS IDEA OF CLEARING THE LOWER CLOUDS IT NOW APPEARS SO UPPED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE RRV/NW MN TODAY. WHILE CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS HOLD ON DVL-VALLEY CITY AREAS.
FURTHER WEST A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN TN AND NW MISSISSIPPI. MESOSCALE MODELS DO MOVE THIS CLOUD COVER OVER NW TN AND NW MS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. THEY SEEM TO THIN OUT THE CLOUD COVER AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. RAISING HIGHS WEST OF I-65 INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AN UPPER TROF.
LIGHT WNW SURFACE WINDS TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
1153 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WHILE AN OCEAN LOW INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE LOWS. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
336 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
1034 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH.
With 850 mb temperatures warming into the upper single digits (Celsius) across western Missouri, high temperatures should make it into the lower to middle 60s. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected across the eastern Ozarks with highs in the middle to upper 50s.
336 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR EAST INTO ONTARIO HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND HAS BEGUN FILLING IN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DROPPING THROUGH MID MI AND WILL TRAVERSE SE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE ARE A COUPLE SMALL VORTICES SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL. THE FRONT SHOULD BE TROUGH THE AREA BY 00 TO 01Z THIS EVENING SO WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE EVENT. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. RIDGING WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE AS DRY AIR EXTENDS FURTHER THROUGH THE COLUMN.
1039 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 Even with a weak surface trof moving across the forecast area Today.
1138 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET WITH GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TODAY.
1145 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 With an upper ridge over the area will have VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light wind.
922 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS COLORADO TODAY WITH GENERALLY A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 50 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
ATMOS IS EXTREMELY DRY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROUGH AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING WHICH MEASURED PWATS AROUND 1/4". AFTER A CHILLY START WITH TEMPS BRIEFLY DIPPING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL EXPAND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTN AS WRLY LOW LVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
239 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST.
346 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONTAL ZONES OVER FLORIDA AND EAST GULF AND 1020MB HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO NORTH ALABAMA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
1101 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP LEE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. AND A FEW DOWNSLOPE WARMED AREAS MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
249 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN) THAT ARRIVES ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
Surface winds veer somewhat today as the deep low pressure over the Great Lakes moves off but cold air advection is limited at best. With good insolation expect highs to be similar to a bit warmer. A progressive pattern brings another upper trough into the Northern Rockies tonight. Surface winds weaken this evening but increase a bit from the south late as warm and relatively dry air spills east in the low and mid levels.
342 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
1222 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. THE RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND JET.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
That being said, despite most guidance suggesting temperatures maxing out in the 30s(north) to 40s (south), went ahead and bumped up the high today into the 40s across areas north of I-70 and into the 50s for areas along and south of I-70. Unfortunately, once again mixing will be limited to the lowest 100 to 150 mb, so temperatures will not be able to sky rocket as much as if mixing to H85 occurred.
The coldest readings will be in the low- lying areas and along river valleys, and a few upper 20s cannot be ruled out.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF THIS MORNING, DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF AND WITH THE 150KT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE SOUNDING THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, LIKELY DUE TO THE ONGOING RAIN. THE NEXT CONCERN BEHIND THIS LINE WILL BE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
208 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 There is an upper level trough over the eastern half of the conus with upper ridging taking place over the CWA.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Mid and high clouds currently over the area associated with mid level trough will push southeast of the area early this morning. Still expect today to be a warmer day than yesterday overall with forecast soundings showing mixing into the 900-850mb range resulting in above normal temperatures.
1222 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY GOES ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
Satellite and radar show mid clouds and a possibly few sprinkles across Indiana into much of southern Illinois and southern Missouri, associated with a weak cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest this afternoon, but with no significantly cooler air right behind the front and plenty of sunshine, we will still see milder temperatures than yesterday. A weak ridge of high pressure will slide across our area tonight into Friday. Winds will shift back to the south on Friday as the ridge moves east of the PAH forecast area.
357 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 LITTLE FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH RIDGE APPROACHING WILL SEE WAA ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MELTING SNOW. RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
COULD BE SOME FREEZING FOG ON RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE SREF WHICH ONLY GIVES A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE FREEZING RAIN WHILE RAIN/SNOW PROBABILITIES ARE BOTH AROUND 60 PERCENT.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WASHINGTON. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS PUSHED NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES IS ALLOWING RIDGETOP WINDS TO GUST TO 60 MPH AT WHITE PASS (ELEV 6000 FEET) AND 50 MPH AT SEDGE RIDGE (ELEV 4300 FEET). A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. A WEATHER GRAPHIC WAS CREATED HIGHLIGHTING THE 60-80 MPH RIDGETOP WINDS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND MENTIONS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
1150 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS ENDED IN THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THREAT EAST OF THE RRV TIL LATER TONIGHT SO KEPT IN AREAS OF FZDZ ROX-TVF-FFM EASTWARD.
WIND FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR GUSTS OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS WAVE BROKE OFF EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN IOWA AS A CLOSED LOW AND IS NOW NEAR CHICAGO. A LITTLE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND WILL BE NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. SOME MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS OCCUR OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. 15" FOR QPF ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWESTERN MN. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW. THINKING 1-2" IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MIDWEEK WHILE THE JET MAKES A CHANGE TO A RIDGING PATTERN PUSHING EAST.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE RIDGING TAKES A HOLD OF THINGS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET A LITTLE COOL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIATES. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A LEE TROF PUSHES A SECONDARY FRONT INTO THE REGION VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE 12Z.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE PLAINS WILL BE MINIMAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE SNOW FALLS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SNOWY RANGE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WED AND THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL DECREASE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURS NIGHT WITH A STRONG FROPA AND BORA WIND EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY.
400 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 WV imagery shows an upper lvl trough entering the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under continued NW flow aloft. Sfc observations indicate a weak cold front filtering south into the area, which should keep temps closer to normal this afternoon, as did yesterday's front. Models follow the upper trough mentioned above with another over the next 24 hours, dropping a secondary cold into the area Tuesday, so we've stayed toward the cooler side of guidance thru then.
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING RAIN. GAH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE AREA. WITH JUST A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING EAST OF A GLASGOW TO CIRCLE TO GLENDIVE LINE. PRESSURE RISES AND BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING IF TEMPS AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION WARM ABOVE FREEZING OR NOT.
AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ROUGHLY ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR/MO BOOTHEEL/NORTHWEST TN.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE TOPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S REGION-WIDE.