Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Large upper low centered north of Lake Huron providing extensive low stratus across the northern Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes regions. Clouds: Little change in the airmass as upper level trough will remain across the Great Lakes region. The exception will be in far northeast MO on Friday where clouds should decrease as that area will be closer to high pressure sliding eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s with highs on Friday in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Winds are quite light thanks to the eastward retreat of a high pressure area over the western subtropical North Atlantic. A weakening cold front currently is limping southward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and likely will dissipate by the time it approaches the Keys on Friday. A weakening cold front over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will dissipate as it approaches the Florida Keys overnight.
The deep cyclone over the Great Lake region is lifting northeast while another trough digs over the western CONUS.
May see some mist/light freezing drizzle/ as well. Some chance of breaks in the lower cloud cover developing into Friday afternoon as models try to bring in some drier air from the north/northwest. Highs should warm into the lower 30s most areas.
556 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 An upper level low north of the region will move off to the northeast Friday Night.
Most of the models are not handling the low-level moisture field well at all, with 12z NAM and GFS forecast soundings suggesting partial clearing across the area this afternoon. With ridge of high pressure remaining W/SW of Illinois tonight then shifting slowly eastward over the area on Friday, thermal advection will remain weak and the low-level moisture will likely remain in place. Due to the extensive cloud cover, have decided to go above guidance numbers for lows tonight, with readings staying in the lower to middle 30s much like last night.
654 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. An upper low will remain the dominant feature during this portion of the forecast.
610 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 An upper level low north of the region will move off to the northeast Friday Night.
605 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will build in from the west over the next several days, bringing dry weather and gradually cooling temperatures.
It was sunny and cool across the Mid-State this afternoon, with 3 pm temperatures ranging from the middle 40s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower 50s elsewhere. Expect a cool high pressure system to remain over the Mid-State through Friday, along with mostly clear skies. Upper trough deepens over the western United States by Friday night, with upper level flow becoming southwesterly across the Tennessee Valley.
High pressure is forecast to briefly build Thursday night and lower inversion heights via subsidence, hence diminishing snow shower potential across the area.
Quiet and very cold conditions will be seen across the area tonight as arctic high pressure moves through the area. During this time period the lowest wind chills of 20 to 25 below zero should be realized. Quiet and cold conditions will be seen Thursday as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes and a storm system moves into the Plains.
High pressure will build into the area tonight into tomorrow morning.
1034 mb arctic high pressure over western Nebraska and eastern MT will settle over central IL/IN Thu afternoon bringing fair but cold weather. Thursday mornings chilly temperatures will struggle into the upper teens, with some portions of southern IL into the low 20s for daytime highs. Overnight, the high pressure center passes to the east, and winds come around to more southerly, starting a period of warm air advection ahead of a developing storm system and front.
326 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2016 (Today and Tonight) Stratus is steadily spreading across West Central Texas early this morning, with temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to near 30 across the Big Country to the low to mid 40s across the Interstate 10 corridor. Highs will range from the mid 40s across the Big Country, to the low to mid 50s across most of the rest of the forecast area.
Shortly after 09Z, the lowest temperatures was at ABR at -22F, and a wind chill near -33F.
204 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 Water vapor images show a large upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes over Ontario and Quebec with a trough dipping southward to the Tennessee Valley. High pressure remains in control of South Florida and the Keys.
320 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 Cold high pressure will move eastward and be over Virginia and North Carolina today.
110 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 Weak high pressure will extend over the area tonight, then a strong cold front will move through Thursday morning.
A flat 500-hPa ridge will prevail across the Central Rockies and extending out across Kansas. To the northeast, the cooler 850-hPa airmass will only slightly moderate. The net result for sfc temperatures is a fairly cool day ranging from around freezing in the northeast to around 50F to the southwest. There is only a slight chance of freezing drizzle across Barber county through tomorrow morning.
Morning lows may dip into the teens near the Tennessee River but most of us will be in the low to middle 20s. Arctic high pressure is settling over the region. High pressure will be located over NW Missouri by 12z Thursday.
Fairly tight pressure gradient setting up today with the high building in will set up strong gusty winds.
949 PM PST Wed Dec 14 2016 Snow will return to the region tonight as a warm front moves into the region and stalls before moving out tomorrow.
The increasing clouds will keep temps a little warmer than this morning with single digits to lower teens. Warmer air with higher heights in the wake of the wave will lead to highs going up a few degrees. Highs into the lower and mid 30s across SW Neb.
1154 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 High pressure will slide off to our east tonight allowing for return southerly flow and warm air advection.
853 PM PST Wed Dec 14 2016 Snow will return to the region tonight as a warm front moves into the region and stalls before moving out tomorrow.
The rest of the area will likely see max temperatures in the low to mid 20s today.
There will still be scattered high and mid clouds but primarily, it will be noticeably colder with highs struggling to reach into the lower 30s.
Cooler temperatures from the aforementioned cold front and tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue into the latter half of the work week as the front stalls over eastern New Mexico with near average to slightly below average high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.
309 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2016 Arctic high pressure was centered over northwest Missouri this morning, forcing cold air across the entire state of Missouri. As southerly winds return later today in response to high pressure shifting east, temperatures won't cool as much tonight with some areas remaining in the low 30s.
A weak cold front continues to move across the Southern Appalachian Region tonight.
/issued 408 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2016/ (Tonight and Thursday) A cold front is currently entering northern portions of the forecast area and will drop south across the rest of the area this evening and overnight. Temperatures will be near freezing across far northwestern portions of the Concho Valley and across Nolan and Fisher counties, where some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible during the morning hours. Impacts will be minimal, with only a few slick spots possible on bridges and overpasses. Cloud cover will hang around for most of the day tomorrow, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south.
The lowest winds chill values will occur in far NE South Dakota.
Mostly cloudy skies will keep overnight lows on the mild side tonight and some valley locations will climb back into the low 50's Thursday afternoon. Upper level flow will shift to the southwest Thursday evening as a +110kt jet maxima helps propel this trough forward.
332 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2016 A cold front has moved through much of the region tonight resulting in temperatures in the upper 20s (northern zones) to mid 30s (along the Pecos River Valley) at 3am CST.
345 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 A strong cold front will move offshore early today.
351 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2016 Arctic high pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning. The high will provide the area with another chilly day. The combination of cold air advection and some mid to high clouds streaming over the area will keep temperatures from getting above freezing across much of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee.
Only the higher terrain areas of eastern Colorado will see a slight warmup where temperatures may reach the 40s, but expecting 30s for highs elsewhere.
The high will shift eastward during the day Thursday, with surface winds gradually becoming southeasterly.
A slow moving cold front situated across Ne Fl early this morning will finally move to the south of the area by this afternoon as a large Canadian high begins to build north of the area. Considerable low clouds along with patchy fog and drizzle will get shunted to the southeast by this afternoon as a cooler and drier air mass filters into the area behind the front.
Upper ridge over the western CONUS is shifting eastward, with next trough off the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure sits over the eastern Dakotas, and low pressure is over northern CO/southern WY. A band of snow is pushing into the CWA from the southwest ahead of the low. WAA/isentropic lift snow band will gradually shift northeastward today ahead of the low. Behind the band of snow, forecast soundings continue to indicate low stratus and freezing drizzle in upsloped areas around the southern Hills and into the Rapid City area. Continued mention in grids and expanded area, with patchy freezing drizzle shifting eastward in the evening.
Aloft, a deep upper level low is churning towards the southern portion of Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow spread from the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, to the Ohio Valley. The intrusion of arctic air will be the main story through the short term, as a short wave trough rotates through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions tonight. High pressure will shift off to our north and northeast Thursday night, while mid and high level clouds increase aloft.
957 PM MST Wed Dec 14 2016 Adjusted minimum temperatures tonight, with some plains locations needing to be colder and some higher mountain locations needing to be warmer.
359 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 High pressure centered to the west will circulate very cold air across the region today and tonight.
338 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 An arctic cold front will surge through VA and NC this morning.
Winds not quite as gusty under the cloud cover, with generally 10-15 mph sustained winds through the day, as cool high pressure continues to move southeast into the Central Plains. Highs from around freezing southwest to the middle 20s far northeast.
So do expect a rather strong lee trough to develop and therefore would expect the winds to be south to south southeast. Considering the above will tend toward the cooler side of guidance to the east of the Colorado border.
Arctic high pressure, centered from eastern South Dakota to central Missouri, will continue to build eastward into central and southern Illinois today.
The ceilings are expected to slowly lift to above 2 KFT over the VCT area by Thursday morning as slightly drier air moves in at the lower levels.
There are still some mid clouds hanging in across SE Oklahoma but below freezing temperatures are expected by morning for all but the far SE sections of OK. Low pressure system will be intensifying in the northern high Plains.
Brisk west winds will persist through the morning, then taper off during the afternoon as high pressure slides from Iowa to Illinois and Indiana.
The higher gusts and slightly lower forecast temps for tonight resulted in lower wind chill values. Low temps should range from 8-13 degrees over southern Indiana/north central KY with the lowest wind chills in the -5 to 0 degree range late tonight. Arctic high pressure will slide by to our north on Thursday, with continued mid/high clouds under a fast upper jet. The cold will hang on as 900mb temps around -16C will limit max temps to the lower/mid 20s, around 20 degrees below normal for mid-December. By Thu night the high will be far enough east to open up weak return flow, so expect a quick drop in temps Thu evening with flat or slowly rising temps after midnight.
Currently have the gradient between Highway 20 and Highway 30 though some uncertainty in exact cutoff of the higher amounts due to the transition to drier air. Warmer air will move into southern Iowa with readings eclipsing 32 in that region. /Sunday night through Saturday/ Weak surface ridging will build into the state on Sunday night after the departure of the current system.
Winds will be mainly out of the south through about 12-15z and then will shift westerly and northwest with the passage of a cold front. /Issued 301 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/ Several cold fronts are the focus for the forecast for the next 7 days. Unseasonably warm temperatures Today will quickly be replaced by cooler temperatures Sunday as another cold front sweeps across the Panhandles.
320 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Warm advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures from falling much, if at all, tonight and latest surface observations are showing temperatures near or at freezing across northern Missouri. With temperatures expected to continue to rise early this morning, the threat of freezing drizzle is decreasing and may only be confined to localized areas in far northern Missouri for a few hours around sunrise. So forecast soundings continue indicate any precipitation will likely be drizzle or freezing drizzle.
Model precip types suggesting at the beginning of the event we could see a few areas of freezing rain and/or ice pellets with the snow before slowly falling temperatures change any mix to light snow. High temperatures generally in the mid 30s north to the low 40s far south.
The next low pressure center that will roll up toward the area and bring warmer air in the south, taking shape acrs the southwestern plains. Then as the low pressure and inverted trof system rolls up acrs the mid to upper MS RVR Valley through this afternoon, more precip and possibly a DEF zone type band of precip will take shape acrs more of the southeastern half to 2/3's of the CWA from late morning and into the afternoon, before shifting east of the CWA this evening.
South to southeast winds will persist, but turn southwest Sunday morning ahead of a weak cold front. South to southeast winds will persist, but turn southwest Sunday morning ahead of a weak cold front. Still expect a decent warm up tomorrow as low level SW flow continues ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should make it into NW OK by mid day.
This will also allow temps to warm into the low/mid 50s.
Low-level winds will strengthen considerably the next few hours as a cold front approaches the region, and will include LLWS in the TAF's beginning at 12Z.
Much of the snow has already moved into eastern SD ahead of the trough, with a little light snow lingering over the southwestern CWA. At the surface, the trough is crossing western SD, and winds are light. Trough will exit the northern plains today, and high pressure will sink into SD. West-southwest low-level winds ahead of next low will bring in warmer air, allowing temperatures to warm into the 20s and 30s across the southwestern half of the CWA.
Temperatures were mainly in the lower to mid 20s. Low pressure in eastern Colorado with 3-hrly pressure falls of 6 mb in the Great Plains. Sunday: Low pressure will push across northern MO with another area of heavier snow developing in western and northern IL. Locations in our far south may experience a mix of rain and snow as the freezing line pushes northward into that area. Highs will range from the lower 30s along Highway 20 to the mid 30s south. Lows should range from the single digits far nw to the lower 20s far southeast.
Ridge in the low levels centered over the Mid-Atlantic states which is allowing low level winds to become more easterly and southeasterly. On Sunday, low pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains that will allow winds to become more southeast and south. /issued 341 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley which is providing an erly low-level flow over the ern 1/2 of the forecast area. As a result overnight temps will be considerable warmer across the swrn 1/3 of the area. some 15 degrees warmer across coastal sern TX. but still 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning's lows.
or even slowly rise overnight as warmer air to the south continues to work its way into the area. Drier weather is expected Sunday on the backside of the departing wave as high pressure builds in. Temps will be warmer tomorrow but still below seasonal averages.
Ahead of the trough we will see low-level moisture increase over the southeast CWA this morning.
203 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure will build south of the region overnight.
The low temp forecast has been adjusted up accordingly, by a category or so. In the Pennyrile region of KY where clear to mostly clear skies lingered longer, the low temp forecast actually dropped a category in some locations. anticipate an early low temp with near steady or even slight rise in mercury as the lower trop warm advection kicks in more earnestly with time. It takes awhile for the column to saturate thru the 20+ F dew point depressions in the lower trop, so not much if any pcpn is anticipated thru tmrw morning (will let collab play that out on particulars). Upper dynamical energy will organize and propel a cold front from west to east across the FA during the overnight hours.
High pressure centered over Kentucky today will move east to the Atlantic coastline by midday Sunday. Southerly winds in the wake of the high will usher in relatively warmer temperatures and higher moisture for the second half of the weekend. While warmer than today, temperatures will only top out in the 40s, with the possible exception of a 50 degree reading around Lake Cumberland. Southerly winds could gust over 20 mph at times tomorrow afternoon thanks to the tight pressure gradient on the back side of the high, adding to the blustery feel of the day. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s, but thanks to the south winds, Sunday night's lows will remain above freezing, ranging from the mid 30s in southern Indiana to the mid 40s along the Tennessee border.
Southerly winds during this timeframe will be approaching 15 kts sustained speeds with higher gusts reaching or exceeding 20-25 kts ahead of the cold front which will not reach any of our sites until after this TAF period concludes at 12/06Z.
A cold front will bring a north to northwest wind shift through the terminals Sunday afternoon, to be followed be decreasing wind speeds Sunday evening. A cold front will bring a gusty north-northwesterly wind shift through the terminals Sunday afternoon. Northwesterly flow upstream of the trough axis will maintain generally dry conditions across the High Plains into the middle of the coming week. A series of cold fronts will bring airmasses with varying degrees of coolness southward through this time period with the first front forecast to move across the Panhandle Sunday, entering the northern South Plains late in the afternoon.
While a cold front is expected to make its way south across Nebraska overnight. While this could potentially result in some light freezing drizzle across the local area based on NAM soundings. did maintain some light fog mention for the early morning hours for the western third of our area as there remains a small possibility in the pre-frontal trough just ahead of the frontal passage. with slightly cooler afternoon temperatures behind the passing cold front along with breezy northerly winds.
1125 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 For the rest of today and tonight, we will see the pressure gradient continue to tighten and winds will continue to increase tonight as low pressure begins to track east into the plains. Parts of the far eastern Ozarks may have a 1-2 hour window for some very light freezing drizzle/rain before surface temperatures rise above freezing, but should not cause any hazardous conditions to develop. QPF chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, especially over the southeast 2/3 of the CWA as the cold front pushes through. Rain should come to an end over the eastern Ozarks prior to the overnight hours and sub-freezing surface temperatures should occur AFTER the precipitation ends. The cold air behind this cold front will be fairly shallow and 850mb temperatures should remain above freezing.
The trof and moisture will move steadily eastward tonight, and we expect light snow to redevelop along the Rocky Mtn Front starting around midnight. The clearing skies behind the eastern trof have led to areas of dense freezing fog around Bozeman and Belgrade, so have added that to their forecast.
Temperatures will finally at least climb into the mid-upper 40s this afternoon as a H85 thermal ridge slides across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys ahead of the aforementioned disturbance.
The bulk of the work week forecast will feature a weakened area of high pressure in the western north Atlantic and a ridge aligned westward across Florida. Under a very broad and relatively shallow trough, just a slight chance of measurable rain is expected through those periods, accompanied by above average temperatures.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
While temperatures may drop below freezing this evening, warm advection overnight should result in increasing temperatures after midnight and any drizzle would very likely coincide with temperatures above freezing. By afternoon, a cold front will begin to cross the forecast area with cold advection keeping highs in north central KS in the upper 30s.
Clouds will continue to move over the entire forecast area ahead of a cold front which will move into the central plains overnight.
In the low levels, an associated cyclone located over the central High Plains this afternoon will rapidly develop across the central Plains and into the upper Midwest by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance southeast through the mid and lower Missouri Valleys. A low-level warm advection regime will remain in place across the mid Missouri Valley tonight, downstream from the surface cyclone and approaching mid-level disturbance. While not included in the official forecast, we will have to watch for the potential for some light freezing drizzle over far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa late tonight into Sunday morning. On Sunday, the above-mentioned cold front will advance through the area with the best precipitation potential remaining to our east.
Bands of snow showers continue across the area as the last push of energy moves across with the trough axis moving through.
1148 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 High pressure will bring fair but chilly weather to the region through Sunday.
Overnight lows will be warmer than previous nights and ranging from the mid 40s across the Hill Country to lower 50s across the coastal plains.
While some strong winds will blow through the night the areal coverage is expected to decrease with the high wind warning has been cancelled.
Regardless of an intensifying upper level jet across the region, a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels will preclude any precip chances through Sunday night. Temperatures will not be quite as cold tonight as a prevailing low level southerly flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas with H85 temperatures climbing by at least 5C to 8C. This will briefly halt a short-lived warm up to the region as cooler air spills into the high plains lowering H85 temperatures back down into the single digits(C).