Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
132 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure will remain over the region today.
/Issued 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ An upper ridge over the area will result in hot and humid weather over the next couple days.
Winds will remain light and variable, and temperatures will fall into the upper 60s in the higher terrain and lower 70s in and near urban areas. With an upper ridge pattern also becoming more entrenched across much of the SE states, afternoon highs look to climb well into the lower/mid 90s for most spots. Any lingering showers/tstms should then quickly diminish Sun evening, with overnight lows trending predom in the lower/mid 70s for most areas. A gen weakness in the upper ridge axis may then allow for a few more showers/tstms Mon, with afternoon highs again climbing well into the lower/mid 90s for many locations. Iso showers/tstms may then linger into the evening period Mon, as lows once again trend in the lower/mid 70s range.
If warm front/return flow does no shift north (no progression yet) then this could also delay coverage/strength of nighttime activity, which then could impact Sunday convection coverage/timing/impacts. Coverage/timing of additional thunderstorm activity is going to be a big question Sunday as overnight/morning activity has the potential to linger and have positive or negative impacts on reinitialization ahead of cold front later Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening.
Additional showers and thunderstorms expected late tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage across the interior.
305 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2020 There is a batch of cloudiness associated with a weak upper trough moving east over the eastern third of the CWA right. There was a boundary/cold front pushing south- southwestward over the northern Metro area earlier, but it appears to be washing out. It wasn't much of cooler airmass anyway. The low level winds should adhere to normal diurnal patterns through Sunday. 5 C warmer than this afternoon's.
Coverage/timing of additional thunderstorm activity is going to be a big question Sunday as overnight/morning activity has the potential to linger and have positive or negative impacts on reinitialization ahead of cold front later Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening.
532 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Between an upper trough to the west and weak ridging to the east, the northern plains is beneath southwesterly flow. Surface map shows low pressure stretching across central SD, and another low over central WY, with the frontal boundary draped across eastern SD and through NE. On Sunday, a Canadian low pressure system will drag another cold front through the region. Cooler, drier weather will spread into the area from northwest to southeast; highs will range from the upper 70s across northeastern WY to the lower 90s across south central SD.
Temperatures are in the mid- to low- 80s and are expected to drop to the low- to mid- 70s overnight. Latest GOES satellite imagery depicts a weak mid-level trough swinging just north of the area bringing with it some mid-level cloudiness. An upper-level ridge is analyzed over south CONUS. A mid-level trough is located upstream over central MO. Clouds will increase this evening and into the overnight hours over the northern portions of the Mid-South as the aforementioned weak mid-level trough clips the northern portions of AR and TN as well as the MO Bootheel overnight and into Sunday. The trough will be slow to push out of the region with the upper-level jet remaining very weak.
746 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure makes for a warm and dry weekend. Have included a mention of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms this afternoon over the highest terrain of the Allegheny range with a combination of upslope convergence and a bit more effective surface moisture to work with, but anything that does form likely struggles to survive once it moves off the terrain.
Stratus enveloped most of forecast area bulk of the day, keeping actual and apparent temperatures slightly cooler, though still muggy with heat indices 100-103 across southwest portion of forecast area.
646 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 A cold front sitting over our CWA will continue the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms along the front this evening and into tonight. Wind shear is expected to be on the lower end at 20-30 kts. The high-res models are having a difficult time with this event, and timing and placement of these storms are highly uncertain, but chances should progress from west to east throughout the period.
956 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure over the region will slide east overnight. Forecast lows in the lower to mid 60s look reasonable. On Sunday a H5 s/w ridge builds back over the region.
There is still a slight possibility that we could see thunderstorm redevelopment along old outflow boundaries and aided by the low level jet well after midnight and closer to dawn mainly from the Tri-Cities east for any of this late night/early morning convection if it happens. We could see an upper level ridge build across the desert southwest late in the period, but primarily only impactful southwest of our area. Overall expect cooler temperatures to start the week behind the Sunday night cold front.
In the longer term we'll see somewhat zonal flow early in the week give way to a western trough and eastern ridge by later in the week. As of now it looks like the highest chance is west of the Twin Cities, so did not include mention in the TAFS at MSP at this time.
351 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2020 An upper disturbance will help generate showers/thunderstorms over the southern Prairie Provinces this evening and help to push a cold front southeast across the CWA later tonight. An upper trough over the Prairie Provinces tonight will move east with a NW flow in place over most of Montana Sunday.
729 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure over the region this afternoon will move slowly east into the Appalachians tonight. On Sunday a H5 s/w ridge builds back over the region.
423 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 A cold front sitting over our CWA will continue the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms along the front this evening and into tonight. Wind shear is expected to be on the lower end at 20-30 kts. The high-res models are having a difficult time with this event, and timing and placement of these storms are highly uncertain, but chances should progress from west to east throughout the period.
The most impressive boundary ended up losing steam as it moved into the Lower Keys, where it remains draped near at this hour. Northeast to east winds from the lingering effects of the outflow will become east to southeast as temps fall a few more degrees into the lower 80s.
The region will then be positioned between Atlantic high pressure centered offshore and an inland area of broad low pressure. Sunday: Short term guidance indicates that the axis of a H5 trough will ripple over the forecast area during the afternoon and evening. At the sfc, the CWA will remain between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a trough just east of the Fall Line. HREF indicates that showers and thunderstorms will develop along and west of the sea breeze and ahead of the H5 trough.
Temperatures should remain mild overnight as high pressure aloft remains over the state. There is a batch of cloudiness associated with a weak upper trough moving east over the eastern third of the CWA right. There was a boundary/cold front pushing south- southwestward over the northern Metro area earlier, but it appears to be washing out. It wasn't much of cooler airmass anyway. The low level winds should adhere to normal diurnal patterns through Sunday. 5 C warmer than this afternoon's.
/issued 209 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ A large upper level high pressure system will be a main weather feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next seven days.
518 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 The weather pattern will trend drier and increasingly warmer for the first part of the new week. I did not make any large changes to the low temperatures tonight.
926 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Broad upper-ridge dominating much of the northern gulf coast allowing for stable conditions across the Four State Region this evening. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper ridge firmly in place across TX this aftn, and will continue to anchor itself ewd over our region through the weekend. Otherwise, warming temps will characterize the remainder of the weekend, as abundant sunshine and high pressure aloft aid daytime temps upwards, and increasing moisture and early morning clouds hold temps up overnight.
/issued 338 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ Temperatures started out the morning in the low to mid 70s inland and near 80 at the beaches. We remain under the influence of high pressure to our northeast with onshore flow working it's way into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana today. Temperatures climbed into the lower 90s with heat indices from the century mark to around 103 degrees before the sea-breeze. High pressure will ridge across Florida and into the gulf waters through the coming week.
1040 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 The weather pattern will trend drier and increasingly warmer for the first part of the new week. I did not make any large changes to the low temperatures tonight.
High pressure will maintain a dry pattern with seasonal temperatures across the region.
Stratus enveloped most of forecast area bulk of the day, keeping actual and apparent temperatures slightly cooler, though still muggy with heat inidices 100-103 across southwest portion of forecast area.
Between an upper trough to the west and weak ridging to the east, the northern plains is beneath southwesterly flow. Surface map shows low pressure stretching across central SD, and another low over central WY, with the frontal boundary draped across eastern SD and through NE. On Sunday, a Canadian low pressure system will drag another cold front through the region. Cooler, drier weather will spread into the area from northwest to southeast; highs will range from the upper 70s across northeastern WY to the lower 90s across south central SD.
Most of the storm activity has diminished with the highest coverage of storms remaining over SW FL near Charlotte Harbor.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ (Tonight and Sunday) An upper level ridge is parked over Texas, and we're expecting about the same conditions tonight and Sunday as what occurred last night and today. 19 (Sunday Night through next Saturday) The sprawling upper level ridge that is in place across the southern tier of the U.
922 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 A cold front sitting over our CWA will continue the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms along the front this evening and into tonight. Wind shear is expected to be on the lower end at 20-30 kts. The high-res models are having a difficult time with this event, and timing and placement of these storms are highly uncertain, but chances should progress from west to east throughout the period.
East-southeast winds and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours as high pressure over the region dominates. In addition to the lower moisture levels, the afternoon looks to be a tad breezier in the afternoon, which could stunt the sea breeze a bit.
The upper level pattern across the lower 48 includes a cut off low off the CA coast, an upper ridge centered over north TX, and a couple of short waves moving through the mid/upper MS Valley and the far NE United States. Our wx will continue to be dominated by our close proximity upper ridge which isnt abnormally strong for this time of year, but with the dry conditions over our region, is allowing for very hot August temperatures.
/Issued 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ An upper ridge over the area will result in hot and humid weather over the next couple days. The upper ridge will retrograde to the west starting late Monday, putting our area in northwest flow aloft.
342 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Late evening convection which developed across western Neb skirted along the northwest periphery of our cwa and while we missed the western convection, a few storms have developed along and north of an outflow boundary and on the nose of the low level jet.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ (Tonight and Sunday) An upper level ridge is parked over Texas, and we're expecting about the same conditions tonight and Sunday as what occurred last night and today.
134 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure over the region will slide east overnight. Forecast lows in the lower to mid 60s look reasonable. On Sunday a H5 s/w ridge builds back over the region.
West central North Dakota is in an area of isentropic lift, convergence ahead of the low level jet, and convergence along an eastward moving cold frontal boundary. Low level return flow sets up later today with a cold front expected near western ND by 06Z tonight.
There is a trough axis over the far eastern plains that may spark some thunderstorms over Kiowa and Bent County, so low PoPs have been included in the forecast package for this evening. Relative humidity values will be low tomorrow, so any of the storms that form over the lower elevations will likely produce small amounts of rain and just produce gusty winds. The low relative humidity values will create near critical fire weather conditions, but no Red Flag Warning has been issued either to weak wind speeds or fuels not considered critical. I do think isolated storms remain possible and will be where ever some higher moisture can be accessed, and across the higher terrain. Slightly cooler temps expected on Monday, though 80s and 90s still expected across the plains.
New work week will see a bit more scattered convection around, with some perhaps nocturnal as a weak upper low dvlps to our N by midweek. /issued 926 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ Broad upper-ridge dominating much of the northern gulf coast allowing for stable conditions across the Four State Region this evening. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper ridge firmly in place across TX this aftn, and will continue to anchor itself ewd over our region through the weekend. Otherwise, warming temps will characterize the remainder of the weekend, as abundant sunshine and high pressure aloft aid daytime temps upwards, and increasing moisture and early morning clouds hold temps up overnight.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Monday/ Summertime subtropical ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains through Monday keeping the region hot and dry, which is typical for this time of year. The center of the ridging will shift every so slightly westward and weaken a bit by late Monday, but this should be mostly transparent to our sensible weather. Otherwise, afternoon shower/storm activity will remain off to our southeast and well north of our area around the periphery of the upper ridge. The upper ridge axis will remain overhead through the first portion of the upcoming week.
Stratus enveloped most of forecast area bulk of the day, keeping actual and apparent temperatures slightly cooler, though still muggy with heat indices 100-103 across southwest portion of forecast area. Boundary lingers across southeast CWA on Monday, broad trough develops across the central U.
1109 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Warm weather with little or no rainfall is expected through Monday under high pressure.
303 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and mostly dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
So another mild night will follow with warmer than guidance temperatures preferred. Sunday will see a bit more upper level ridge influence but with the monsoonal moisture still edging against our western border areas with a low chance for late afternoon thunderstorms. Deep-layer flow will continue to weaken over the next few days as the ridge de-amplifies while also shifting westward. Additional chances for thunderstorms exist once again on Monday evening as storms initiate near and off the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and move towards the western South Plains at around 20 knots (similar to the storm motions observed the past couple of days). The upper-level ridging will strengthen over the Four Corners towards the middle of the work week, and with the increasing geopotential heights, slightly above normal temperatures are in store, hovering right around the century mark area-wide.
Wind shear is not a concern during the forecast period, as the low- level winds above the deck are anticipated to be around 20 to 30 kts.
200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will continue to decrease from previous 24hrs, but SB instability axis/mid-level theta-e ridge do warrant the continuation of isold PoPs across the far wrn areas today. Negligible height falls and just slightly cooler 85h temps support today's high temps in the U90s PB to 103 wrn PB/Upper Trans Pecos. Mid-level theta-e ridge axis will be trapped within the subtropical ridge circulation with a nw steering component still advertised Mon PM.
Looks like the high instability we had just a couple of hours ago is now waning with loss of heating. Otherwise, clearing skies late tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s, with some patchy fog possible again.
1247 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm weather with little or no rainfall is expected through Monday under high pressure.
357 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 The upper-level ridge will continue be a key player across the Mid-South over the next few days. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to yesterday, or perhaps a degree or two warmer in some areas.
352 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 An upper ridge will build across the southeast through the short term.
There is still a slight possibility that we could see thunderstorm redevelopment along old outflow boundaries and aided by the low level jet well after midnight and closer to dawn mainly from the Tri-Cities east for any of this late night/early morning convection if it happens. We could see an upper level ridge build across the desert southwest late in the period, but primarily only impactful southwest of our area. Overall expect cooler temperatures to start the week behind the Sunday night cold front. Highs on Monday may even be cooler than we are currently forecasting, which is only around 80 in the Tri- Cities.
1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 A cold front sitting over our CWA will continue the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms along the front this evening and into tonight. Wind shear is expected to be on the lower end at 20-30 kts. The high-res models are having a difficult time with this event, and timing and placement of these storms are highly uncertain, but chances should progress from west to east throughout the period. A ridge then starts to move into the region, bringing more comfortable and drier conditions for Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley is expected to remain on the southern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over northern Louisiana during the period. Although the inland portions of the BRO CWFA are expected to remain rain-free, enough available moisture will remain offshore to produce isolated streamer showers over the lower Texas coastal waters at night.
/Issued 1154 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020/ /Overnight through Monday/ Summertime subtropical ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains through Monday keeping the region hot and dry, which is typical for this time of year. The center of the ridging will shift every so slightly westward and weaken a bit by late Monday, but this should be mostly transparent to our sensible weather. Otherwise, afternoon shower/storm activity will remain off to our southeast and well north of our area around the periphery of the upper ridge.
Still, it's rather warm, with heat index values in the lower 90s for many with upper 80s to the east. The broad, weak ridge that has dominated our weather patter over the past two days continues to loiter, with a more positive tilt from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. This is in response to the stout trough centered over the Canadian Prairies/northern Rockies. Tonight, a weak short wave trough will move eastward, lifting across the region through the morning hours, Sunday. Like today, this will have an impact on temperatures, keeping them cooler than most guidance seems to suggest. Sunday night, the ridge will finally begin to get overtaken as the northern trough digs eastward forcing a cold front to slide south and southeast across the northern plains into the Midwest.
some cooler air moves into the area with east to northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph. High temperatures look to be below normal in the low 80s to around 90.
Tonight as that gradient continues slipping eastward, we also will see some isentropic lift along a north/south-oriented warm front. The new work week begins with strong upper ridging over Mexico, Texas, and the Gulf Coast. A sfc cold front will advance southeast through the Midwest on Monday, and scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms look possible in an increasingly hot and humid airmass.
High pressure aloft to the south of Utah will maintain a dry pattern with seasonal temperatures across the region over the next several days.
In the longer term we'll see somewhat zonal flow early in the week give way to a western trough and eastern ridge by later in the week.
406 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Ridging over Florida is bringing neutral flow over the area. It looks like the ridge is going no where for the early part of the week and that means the forecast will remain mostly unchanged.
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as an upper level high builds in. Today Through Monday High pressure continues to build over Arkansas at the surface and aloft.
Onshore flow will keep the low level moisture in place and will probably again lead to some light patchy fog in the inland portions of the coastal counties and also near Conroe/Cleveland. Mostly a persistence forecast for tomorrow with little change aloft expected and fairly homogeneous in the low levels.
High temperatures will be coolest across the SE where clouds/storms will keep readings in the lower to middle 80s. Scattered thunderstorms will re-develop late tonight as the low-level jet increases well in advance of an approaching cold front. /Canada border and will push a cold front southward into central Illinois late Monday.
models show the low level jet shifting eastward into Northern Lower MI. As a result of the variables shown we will continue to message the risks and maintain the high POPs.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the evening across the high terrain and portions of the eastern plains.
Latest surface analysis places the center of upper level high pressure over the Arklatex and it will be remaining pretty much in place through the period.
142 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure makes for a warm and dry weekend. Have included a mention of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms this afternoon over the highest terrain of the Allegheny range with a combination of upslope convergence and a bit more effective surface moisture to work with, but anything that does form likely struggles to survive once it moves off the terrain.
244 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Temperatures will be a bit cooler today in the wake of a weak cold front that passed through overnight.