Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1214 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Scattered snow showers and flurries should persist through Tuesday before diminishing under building high pressure. This should limit accumulation potential to around an inch on the highest ridge tops. The upper low will be near or just off of the Atlantic Coast by 12Z Tuesday, and the downward trend of snow shower coverage will continue from the overnight period. Mainly isolated snow showers should largely end by midday as ridging begins to build in from the west. However, moisture remains trapped underneath the lowering inversion, suggesting that any clearing will be slow to occur.
, 850 mb temperatures increase 2 to 3 deg C) should result in warmer afternoon highs than yesterday.
Locations at the coast are in the lower 40s. At the surface, high pressure will continue over Texas as well as over the Appalachians. An area of low pressure will develop over Missouri overnight tonight; however, this feature will slowly make its way southward through the day on Tuesday and eventually dissipate over the ArkLaTex region by late afternoon.
1035 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 Evening GOES-E IR/WV imagery showed some high clouds spreading south through northern WY and western SD along the eastern periphery of a western CONUS upper ridge. Clear skies have continued the trend of above normal temperatures for this time of year, with temperatures in the low 60s across the High Plains and upper 40s to low 50s along and west of the Laramie Range. Breezy and dry conditions have brought areas of the High Plains very close to critical fire weather conditions - a strange thing to have to say for this time of year. A continuation of these sort of conditions tomorrow as an upper level ridge continued to dominate the region's weather.
1059 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 A broad upper level ridge currently extends across the western CONUS with a closed low off the coast of southern CA. This upper ridge will flatten out Tuesday night across the region as an upper trough pushes into the Pacific NW. Again, went with the high end of guidance for highs with highs around 65 areawide.
324 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Flurries should end this morning as high pressure briefly builds in.
340 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure build across the region through late week.
1005 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 Low pressure will lift northeast away from the area tonight. High pressure will build in on Tuesday and prevail through late week.
/28/ Expect mostly clear skies and cold conditions tonight as high pressure remains in control. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: As a longwave upper trough persists over the East Coast, surface ridging will build along the Gulf Coast, keeping things generally quiet over our area. With steadily rising low level heights, Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today.
1237 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will bring unseasonably cool temperatures tonight into midweek.
Weak easterly flow east of the trough has allowed for stratus and fog to build back west across much of northern Missouri overnight. Short-range guidance remains rather consistent with this trough slowly nudging east into central portions of Iowa and Missouri by late morning.
109 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 An area of low pressure will continue to move away from the NC coast tonight. High pressure build in behind the low through late week. As the high settles over the area with clear skies and light to calm winds, good radiational cooling conditions will drop lows into the mid to upper 20s over most areas Tuesday night, except 30s Outer Banks.
Quite a bit of mid and high cloud was spilling over the ridge into the area early this morning per IR Satellite imagery and surface observations.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Ridging aloft and a deep layer of dry air across the region will result in a clear night and a sunny day on Tuesday. Abundant sun on Tuesday and subtle adiabatic warming from a west/northwest wind at or below 10 mph will result in a steady warmup through the day with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
High pressure will remain just to the W of AR, thus NWrly winds are expected on Tuesday.
1019 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 Water vapor shows broad ridge over the western/central CONUS with trof offshore the Pac NW. Surface trof is pushing into the Upper Midwest with strong ridge over the Rockies.
328 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Deepening low pressure will pass well south and east of the area today.
Temperatures begin to moderate as the aforementioned ridge scoots eastward and nudges longwave troughing off into the Atlantic.
329 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 The gradual eastward release of high amplitude eastern conus troughing commences starting today. However, expansive region of stratus looms just upstream, retained as defined low level moisture plume holds firm within the lingering low level thermal trough.
203 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Northwest mid/upper flow will persist across the central CONUS again today while a mid/upper ridge gradually builds eastward out of the Rockies. A cold front will bisect the area on Thu resulting in a wide range of temperatures. Although it'll be much cooler in the wake of the front, values will remain above climate normals for mid Dec. Rain chances will begin to ramp up Thu night into early Fri with a rain/snow mix still possible across portions of central Kansas late Thu night into early Fri before temperatures rise above freezing. Unsettled weather conditions are anticipated at the beginning of the period as a mid/upper trough is progged to impact the central CONUS.
The upper trough will continue to shift east through the day. Lows will also be warmer with readings in the Golden Triangle being just about the only places expected to be near or below freezing.
1028 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 Currently - A rather vigorous cold front has pushed through the Keys this evening. Meanwhile, high pressure is building across the south and the Gulf of Mexico. The lower level cloud cover is mostly relegated over the western half of the forecast area, directly down wind of the relatively warm gulf waters. Keys waters will remain in fresh to strong northwest to north breezes overnight in wake of the recent cold front passage. While VFR conditions will prevail, there is the potential for brief episodes of MVFR ceilings due to post cold front maritime stratocumulus.
Calmer winds tonight with clear skies, subfreezing temperatures, and small dewpoint depressions should allow for frost development across most of the CWA.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 48 29 57 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 43 27 53 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 26 44 27 53 32 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 40 25 48 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 TN.
Meanwhile, persistence has been the main idea elsewhere and will continue through Tuesday with an upper ridge overhead.
327 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Sprinkles/flurries possible this morning - Trough moving through region midweek - Potential Storm over this weekend with rain/snow mix -- Sprinkles/flurries possible this morning -- Latest satellite continues to show trapped low level moisture allowing for cloudy skies through the western half of the state.
The light NW winds today should be veering to the W/SW tonight and tomorrow as this high settles across the Gulf waters. Lows should range from the low/mid 40s tonight and in mid/upper 40s tomorrow night for inland areas.
Weak easterly flow east of the trough has allowed for stratus and fog to build back west across much of northern Missouri overnight. Short-range guidance remains rather consistent with this trough slowly nudging east into central portions of Iowa and Missouri by late morning. Warmer temps continue to be anticipated today and Wednesday with periods of low-level warm-air advection on track.
537 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Northwest mid/upper flow will persist across the central CONUS again today while a mid/upper ridge gradually builds eastward out of the Rockies. A cold front will bisect the area on Thu resulting in a wide range of temperatures. Although it'll be much cooler in the wake of the front, values will remain above climate normals for mid Dec. Rain chances will begin to ramp up Thu night into early Fri with a rain/snow mix still possible across portions of central Kansas late Thu night into early Fri before temperatures rise above freezing. Unsettled weather conditions are anticipated at the beginning of the period as a mid/upper trough is progged to impact the central CONUS.
423 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Evening GOES-E IR/WV imagery showed some high clouds spreading south through northern WY and western SD along the eastern periphery of a western CONUS upper ridge. Clear skies have continued the trend of above normal temperatures for this time of year, with temperatures in the low 60s across the High Plains and upper 40s to low 50s along and west of the Laramie Range. Breezy and dry conditions have brought areas of the High Plains very close to critical fire weather conditions - a strange thing to have to say for this time of year. A continuation of these sort of conditions tomorrow as an upper level ridge continued to dominate the region's weather.
237 AM PST Tue Dec 8 2020 Milder temperatures are expected through Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure overhead.
436 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Warm & dry conditions are likely to persist through Wednesday with strong upper-level ridging remaining in place over a large portion of the western & central US.
603 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Early morning satellite imagery shows thick mid and high level clouds forming off the higher terrain of central/western Montana, adding to the cloud cover already across the region. Broad ridge centered over the western US continues to impact Northern Plains today. For forecast temperatures, little deviation was made from the previous shift as this looks aggressive enough in the southwest and somewhat cooler in the north and east where cloud cover is more likely. Again the uncertainty comes in the persistent stream of mid-upper clouds, possibly keeping the mixing of winds and warmer temperatures lower. A cold front associated with the aforementioned wave moves through this evening. Cooler but still seasonably warm temperatures expected Wednesday with highs around 40 north to upper 40s to low 50s south.
/Issued 349 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ Looking at GOES-16 water vapor, a mid to upper closed low can be seen off the coast of Southern California and the Baja Peninsula. This low is actually a cutoff low under a ridge currently over the northwest CONUS to include British Columbia and Alberta. Down stream is a mid to upper trough with a low just south of the New England area. The FA area will be under the main ridge for two more days before the low off the coast of CA and Baja makes it here as an open wave trough. However, the presence of the ridge and plenty of solar insolation will allow for temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s once again.
/Today through Wednesday/ Upper-level ridge extending from the Rockies into the desert southwest to build eastward into Texas through Wednesday. Thus, the ArkLaTex will be dominated by northerly flow aloft and ridging through the short term period, allowing for mostly clear skies. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico and extending into Texas to provide light westerly winds through the short term period.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Wednesday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, except for the lower 70s at the beaches.
Wednesday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, except for the lower 70s at the beaches.
320 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Upper level pattern this morning consists of a long wave trough across the eastern half of the country with a ridge extending through the Intermountain West.
Surface observations showing dewpoints differences of 1F to 3F in southwest Iowa, so there is some potential for freezing fog development again during the pre-dawn hours.
450 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Relatively tranquil pattern setting up for most of the work week under the influence of high pressure at the surface.
Dense fog and freezing fog will persist through sunrise across much of northwestern Missouri and adjacent portions of northeastern Kansas.
/issued 327 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ The forecast area will remain on the eastern flank of an upper level ridge that sits over most of the western CONUS. The center of this ridge will begin to shift to the southeast today from its position over the Great Basin toward the southern High Plains. Fair weather, modest west to northwest surface winds, and a dry air mass will allow temperatures to fall efficiently tonight with lows near MOS guidance, running a few degrees warmer than seasonal average.
216 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Upper level ridge will remain centered over the Central Rockies through tonight. Clear, dry, and warm conditions will persist Wednesday, as the area remains under a strong upper ridge. Expect well above normal high surface temperatures in the 60s F across much of the plains and 30s and 40s F in the high country.
High pressure will continue to nestle into the SE CONUS, keeping clear skies and cooler air in place the next few days. The main story will be morning lows and their prospective wind chill values, both of which are progged to be the lowest on Wednesday morning. Most areas will have wind chill values dipping into the lower 40s, with some locations west of Lake Okeechobee dropping in the mid to upper 30s, while eastern coastal areas will hover in the mid 40s on before the sun rises on Wednesday.
717 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure build across the region through late week.
The upstream portion of this trof remains positioned over the Nrn Cntrl US, w/ N/Wrly flow aloft over the Natural State.
530 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Scattered snow showers across the higher terrain should end this morning as high pressure briefly builds in. A trough of low pressure will return light snow chances Wednesday before dry and warmer weather returns to end the work week. Removed flurries from the forecast outside of the higher terrain, with no upstream reports or radar returns. A few flurries or snow showers are also possible with some lake and terrain enhancement, especially in the higher terrain SE of PIT, though low inversion levels and limited moisture should limit this potential. A few breaks in the clouds are expected this afternoon, especially across Ohio, as sfc ridging briefly builds in. Highs should be warmer than yesterday, but still around 5 degrees below average.
The gradual eastward release of high amplitude eastern conus troughing commences starting today. However, expansive region of stratus looms just upstream, retained as defined low level moisture plume holds firm within the lingering low level thermal trough.
912 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Dry conditions expected today before a trough of low pressure brings light snow chances Wednesday mainly north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges. Dry and warmer weather returns to end the work week. Highs will top out slightly warmer than yesterday, but still around 5 degrees below average.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s.
At the surface, a trough associated with low pressure over Canada will extend southward over the Northern Plains today and tonight, then shifts to the southeast on Wednesday as weak high pressure tracks across the Rockies to the Western High Plains. High temperatures today will range from the lower 50s east to the mid 60s west, with lows tonight in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 40s east to the lower 60s southwest.
352 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 A deep trough off the E coast, a deep closed low off the western Mexico coast and a broad area of high pressure across much of the US looks to have broken down the Rex Block as now a sort of quasi-omega block has set up across the nation. Aside from the trough along the east coast, there won't be much movement of either the ridge or closed low today. Tomorrow, a jet streak will round the base of low pressure off the Mexican coast and finally get it moving again.
WAA alone should be enough for well above normal temps with some locations early this morning already above freezing in eastern ND.
644 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Scattered snow showers across the higher terrain should end this morning as high pressure briefly builds in. A trough of low pressure will return light snow chances Wednesday before dry and warmer weather returns to end the work week. Removed flurries from the forecast outside of the higher terrain, with no upstream reports or radar returns. A few flurries or snow showers are also possible with some lake and terrain enhancement, especially in the higher terrain SE of PIT, though low inversion levels and limited moisture should limit this potential. A few breaks in the clouds are expected this afternoon, especially across Ohio, as sfc ridging briefly builds in. Highs should be warmer than yesterday, but still around 5 degrees below average.
/issued 338 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly clear skies over the area with current temperatures in the mainly in the lower 30s to upper 20s near the Tennessee River. Winds will remain light with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s this morning, providing some fog in low lying areas. Dense fog is not expected so have continued to leave out the mention of freezing fog. Temperatures this afternoon will increase to the low to mid 50s and mostly benign weather is expected today.
509 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Upper ridge flattening out with jet overhead along with additional moisture. Clouds and downslope are keeping temperatures above freezing for much of the region. Additional mixing is expected today with a cold front sliding south late in the day. Through the end of the week a series of troughs will push across the Pacific northwest and dig a large scale trough across the Plains and Mississippi Valley by the weekend. Details and moisture associated with the digging trough remain a bit unclear, but we could see a few snow showers across at least part of the area with little in the way of accumulation.
The upper-level ridge will strengthen over the S Plains tomorrow, while a cutoff low off the coast of Baja Del Norte starts to track ewd into N Mexico.
328 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Cool and dry through Wednesday when things will begin to transition as the L/W trough slides east off the coast and the ridge over the central CONUS slides east and begins to flatten.
Lastly, temperatures have been very slowly falling through the overnight are currently in the lower 60s across the Upper Keys and the upper 60s across the Lower and Middle Keys.
925 mb temps do warm to 1-4C by late this afternoon, with blended guidance supporting highs into the low/mid 40s for much of the area. Some mid/high clouds will also stream across the area, but a faster erosion of the lower clouds for areas to the west may help those areas warm up a little more compared to areas east of the MS River.
High pressure will remain across the region through midweek.
On Wednesday, northwesterly upper-level flow is expected to become nearly zonal with time as a broad upper-level ridge quickly shifts across the central U. At low levels, west-northwesterly flow will transport warmer air into the region with 850-hPa temps rising to around 12 to 14C during Wednesday morning.
338 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly clear skies over the area with current temperatures in the mainly in the lower 30s to upper 20s near the Tennessee River. Winds will remain light with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s this morning, providing some fog in low lying areas. Dense fog is not expected so have continued to leave out the mention of freezing fog. Temperatures this afternoon will increase to the low to mid 50s and mostly benign weather is expected today.
For the morning update, extending the period of cloud cover into the early afternoon and went with slightly cooler temperatures with the persistent cloud cover.
Expect some patchy frost in the low lying areas of the SJ valley during the morning with the dry air and good radiational cooling conditions. Some high clouds reaching the Kern county area as an upper low remains off the S CA coast. Moderate pressure gradients between the low and high pressure in the Great Basin creating gusty offshore winds across S CA and the south half of the central CA area. The strongest Santa Ana winds affecting S CA at the moment with some locales along the coast still reporting temperatures in the low 70s due to the warming downslope flow. The upper low moves onshore towards N Baja Wednesday leaving a weak ridge over CA.
Short term forecast remains tranquil as weak high pressure over the gulf of Mexico and very dry air aloft will keep skies clear allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 60s. A near carbon copy day expected Wednesday with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer.
Calmer winds tonight with clear skies, subfreezing temperatures, and small dewpoint depressions should allow for frost development across most of the CWA. High pressure continues to dominate on Wednesday, with NW flow aloft, so another beautiful day.
Broad ridge centered over the western US continues to impact Northern Plains today. For forecast temperatures, little deviation was made from the previous shift as this looks aggressive enough in the southwest and somewhat cooler in the north and east where cloud cover is more likely. Again the uncertainty comes in the persistent stream of mid-upper clouds, possibly keeping the mixing of winds and warmer temperatures lower. A cold front associated with the aforementioned wave moves through this evening. Cooler but still seasonably warm temperatures expected Wednesday with highs around 40 north to upper 40s to low 50s south.
/Issued 320 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ Upper level pattern this morning consists of a long wave trough across the eastern half of the country with a ridge extending through the Intermountain West.
941 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Deepening low pressure will pass well south and east of the area today.
327 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 The forecast area will remain on the eastern flank of an upper level ridge that sits over most of the western CONUS. The center of this ridge will begin to shift to the southeast today from its position over the Great Basin toward the southern High Plains. Fair weather, modest west to northwest surface winds, and a dry air mass will allow temperatures to fall efficiently tonight with lows near MOS guidance, running a few degrees warmer than seasonal average.
The stretch of quiet weather continues across South-Central Texas through at least Wednesday as mid-level ridging remains atop the central US.
635 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 The Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas will remain between low pressure off the East Coast and high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley today and tonight.
Thus far the lowest visibilities have remained just north of the forecast area, but short term model guidance does indicate these lower visibilities spreading/developing southward into our central Missouri counties through the early morning hours. Evening shift had hoisted a dense fog advisory over central Missouri and given model trends will keep as is, and monitor for possible expansion if the lower visibilities make it further south. Could be some slick spots as early morning temperatures are below freezing within that fog area. For the remainder of the day and night, the mid and upper level ridge over the western conus will build eastward into the area.
(See discussion below) Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday/ Ridging aloft and a deep layer of dry air across the region will result in a clear night and a sunny day on Tuesday. Abundant sun on Tuesday and subtle adiabatic warming from a west/northwest wind at or below 10 mph will result in a steady warmup through the day with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Most of the area will warm up into the low/mid 70s with a few spots across the southwest likely reaching the upper 70s.