Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
928 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH CONTINUE CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
723 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
BUT SHORT WAVE TROF IS APPROACHING SOUTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA LINE AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THOUGH WILL STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
REMNANTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TOMORROW SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS HOWEVER AIRMASS NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO MIDWEEK. RIPPLES OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FRONT OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR TSRA TO THE REGION WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 60.
THE PURPOSE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE IS TWO-FOLD: 1) HEAT INDICES HAVE LOWERED INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S IN NEARLY ALL AREAS (NEWTON'S HEAT INDEX HAS DROPPED INTO THE MID 80S). MEANWHILE THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE JUST EAST OF BAJA WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER.
727 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS. WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. APPROACH OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION BY EARLY THIS EVENING AIDED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MAINLY FOR THE ERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING SWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS. LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY E ON MON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR E WHERE AGAIN WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE SWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EWD. AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO CARVE SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIVES JUST E OF THE MID TN VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN THOUGH MAY KEEP A FAIRLY STRONG HOLD W TO E ON THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE PERIOD IS GETTING UNDERWAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA UNDER THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS AND TROUGHING ALOFT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REVITALIZE OR REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
1016 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
Upper level high pressure will remain in place through the period. /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted west over the last 24 hours, and is currently centered over the Texas South Plains. W/this movement, the theta-e ridge has shifted further west into New Mexico as well. A trough is forecast to develop down the west coast over the next few days, nudging the upper ridge back to the east.
1033 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
With slightly warmer and drier boundary layer conditions, prospects for low cloud development are also lower and confined to the far southern part of our area.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH JUST TO OUR SE AND A TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
AND MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE COURTESY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD MOVE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY COULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE AXIS STARTS A SLOW SHIFT EASTWARD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING.
With slightly warmer and drier boundary layer conditions, prospects for low cloud development are also lower and confined to the far southern part of our area. /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) Hot and dry conditions continue as upper level high pressure centers and strengthens over Texas. Lee trough will continue to bring south winds of 5 to 10 mph at night and 10 to 15 mph during the day.
UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER MOISTURE PLUME HAD WORKED ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS WITH A FEW CUMULUS RECENTLY NOTED IN HYS/HLC VICINITY NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN LESS IMPRESSIVE MIXING, AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. NORTHERN UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST MONDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. A BUILDING/EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE IS ROTATING RIGHT OVER THE OKARKLATEX.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN AND KEEP THINGS DRY AND VFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER ON THE QUIET SIDE BY KEEPING CONVECTION CONFINED TO NM. THE FLIP SIDE TO THE RIDGE IS IT WILL CREATE VERY WARM WEATHER TOMORROW AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND NEAR OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE JUST EAST OF BAJA WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER.
SIMILAR PATTERN TOMORROW AS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN MS VALLEY MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND MAINTAINS WEAK NW FLOW OVER THE REGION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 93 74 94 / 30 30 30 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 90 71 90 / 40 40 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 88 71 91 / 40 40 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 85 68 85 / 50 60 60 60.
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. AS MENTIONED THIS IS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. WITH HIGHS TOMORROW JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
Records there go back to 2003 with the highest gust clocking in at 83.
BEEN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TOPPING-OUT IN THE MID 90S ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY HAS PEAKED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN A RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 100S. IN THE GOING HEAT ADVISORY IS GENERALLY WHERE THE HIGHEST PEAK INDEX VALUES OCCURRED. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IS GOING THROUGH TOMORROW BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN THE TIME IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PERSISTENCE OF THE HOT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE AND ARE ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE DESERTS AS OF 0230Z. STILL RELATED TO THE POSITIONAL WEST COAST TROF AND ITS INLAND MOVING DISTURBANCES.
A EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINE MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN MAINE.
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 34 KNOTS AT 36000 FEET. 32 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE NOCTURNALLY DUE TO LAND BREEZE DRY AIR DRAINAGE IN THE SOUNDS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING EACH DAY.
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE COMING UP OVR CO FROM SW TO NE. WITH THE UPR RIDGE SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TC DOLORES WILL BE PULLED INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER TX. MOISTURE BEGINS TO ROTATE EASTWARD AROUND THE HIGH WHILE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
WARM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN U.
646 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO START TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE, THE 4 KM NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE HRRR, SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL LOW/TROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME MODELS SUGGEST, SO THIS COULD ACTUALLY KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS NOW. ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS, HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS MORE OF A CONCERN. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ARE NOT STRONG AND THEREFORE MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH FOR TOMORROW. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS SAGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DESPITE THE TROUGH. AREA REMAINS ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE H850 RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA GULF COAST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LESS IN COVERAGE TOMROROW MORNING THAN THIS MORNING WITHOUT A STRONG ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP MORE QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES WEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS HAVE WEAKENED THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST SPOTS TOMORROW WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY TO KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE MID 90S EXCEPT OUT IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THEY MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
00Z JAX SOUNDING STILL SHOW GENERALLY DEEP NLY FLOW AROUND 12 KT WITH LARGE RIDGE LOCATED OVER ERN TX AND WRN LA. LOWS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE LOWEST POPS OUT WEST.
822 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF CENTRAL PA DRY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DWPTS CREEPING UP SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WILL LINGER ALL WEEK, DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH MID-WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OR/ID BORDER WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA THAT SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
1019 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 RIDGE CITY WITH REGIONAL 5H HEIGHTS OF GREATER THAN 594 DAM. MID TO LATE WEEK AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE 101 TO GREATER THAN 105 F HEAT INDICES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE FROM FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS AS OF 02Z WERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST.
VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS VARYING BETWEEN THE LOWER 70S IN OUR WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR EAST. WE ALSO HAVE THE SPORADIC IOWA AWOS VALUES IN THE LOW 80S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A TROUGH IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ON TARGET WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS WILL AT LEAST GIVE THE AREA SOME CHANCE FOR DAILY CONVECTION.
SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE PIEDMONT COMPARED TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING OUR REGION MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. -BLAES THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED OVER TX/LA. WITH TROUGHS OVER EACH COAST.
859 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH AN AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND WE WILL SEE ITS INFLUENCE CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AND MOST AREAS IN ITS WAKE WERE SIMPLY NOT ABLE TO RECOVER THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LATE DAY STORMS. SLOWLYDURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR LOW LEVEL PATTERN BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO ONE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
Additionally, a weak cold front will approach/move through during the afternoon/evening. With moderate to strong instability, low-level forcing, and upstream convective temperatures reached over Kansas (where the higher coverage of storms is expected), expect a few widely scattered thunderstorms to develop by mid/late afternoon.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WITH THE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES NE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE OVER TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE CENTERED ANYWHERE FROM NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS (DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU'RE LOOKING AT) BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2015 An upper level high centered over the TX Panhandle region with a ridge extending northward is keeping the weather seasonably hot but a bit more humid than usual. The upper ridge amplifies over the Plains with an upper level nw flow aloft. The eastern edge of hotter Plains temperatures edge east farther east into the region Monday with overall warmer temperatures expected, especially over the western and northern cwfa.
A SURFACE WIND SHIFT/TROUGH AXIS WAS ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING INTO THE MID-SOUTH AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL INCREASE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY AS THIS TROUGH AXIS IS UNFORTUNATELY FOCUSING TRAINING SHOWERS/T'STORMS ALONG IT ACROSS AREAS THAT DO NOT NEED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RECOVERING INTO THE LOW.
404 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE MIDWEST.
ACCOMPANYING THE WARMER AIR WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO DEFLECT MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
The upper low in east Texas will lose organization as it continues northeast today. /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ Upper low that has brought several days of rain chances to the area continues to slowly moving northward and is currently located over south central TX.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO WESTERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PRIMARILY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.
1033 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 Cut-off upper low that has been nearly stationary over southern Texas over the past couple of days is finally getting pushed northward today by another system moving across the Desert Southwest. A closed upper low over Texas early this morning is about to start moving rapidly northeastward toward the Midwest today as a strong progressive trough pushes rapidly eastward through the southwest U. Temperatures expected to reach the low 60s with light east winds around 5 to 8 mph. Have increasing chances of showers spreading nne across central IL during tonight into Sunday as upper level low over central Texas moves into the mid MS river valley.
149 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW. EFFECTS FROM THIS FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL BE FELT MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
Showers and persistent mountain obscurations will continue through the day today ahead of a cold front this evening. Moist southwest flow will continue today above the cooler air moving into the northern Rockies, keeping plenty of clouds and showers in the area through the weekend, especially over the mountains.
1131 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48. WITH A UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. A STRONGER NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH EXTENDED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST U. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS PROGS THE AZ UPPER LOW TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL STILL YIELD MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
138 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
1127 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM TEXAS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW THATS BEEN SPINNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO FINALLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW DEW POINTS.
1131 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 STORMS ARE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. /ISSUED 1041 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RUMBLING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION BY 13/00Z. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS COMPLETELY OUT THIS EVENING.
Then the next upper low which is currently over the Southern Plains will lift northward with decent low level convergence and mid level ascent moving into the southern and eastern parts of the CWA by mid-late evening, and across the rest of the area overnight. Temperatures should not fall much overnight given the low clouds and the lack of advection. This first upper low will lift out of the area tomorrow morning only to be followed by a second upper low that will approach the area later in the day. Will keep with the warmer GFS MOS temperature because of this.
THE RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST.