Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler temperatures throughout the work week, although conditions will be ideal for outdoor activities. Cooler overnight lows will set the stage for cooler afternoon temps on Monday. A deep upper trough over the eastern conus with a long wave ridge across the Mountain West will put the Ozarks in the inflection area of these waves.
1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Today through Monday night) For today, slightly cooler temperatures are in store for the OK and TX Panhandles in the wake of the most recent weak cold frontal passage. Based on the above, have raised surface winds a little over the NBM 90th percentile values across the higher terrain of the western, southwestern, and south central counties closer to the MAVMOS and LAVMOS guidance values. At upper levels, an amplified ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West coupled with a deepening trof across the eastern states will result in dry northwest flow today through Monday night.
1245 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Today and tonight) The 500mb trough across the eastern United States will bring a weak cold front into the northern portions of the CWA (the Big Country region) this morning into early this afternoon. Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into west-central Texas late tonight into early Monday morning. Temperatures will be above normal this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 90s across the region.
A cold front is currently nosing into the I-40 corridor of middle Tennessee this afternoon and will eventually push southward into our area later this evening and overnight. The end result will be a cooler, drier air mass that will move into the area in its wake, bringing an end to precipitation and creating a mostly clear sky overnight. Temperatures will respond in turn, dropping from the lower 80s this afternoon into the low to mid 50s by early Monday morning.
A well defined marine layer will support summerlike conditions with cooler and cloudier conditions near the coast through early in the week. Look for additional warming by about 5-10 deg F across the interior through the afternoon while the coast may warm only an additional 5 degrees as the low clouds briefly scatter out.
316 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Upper level northwest flow will remain in place over the Northern Plains through the short term period as ridging builds over the western part of the country. The high moves over the region tonight, which will result in the gusty winds diminishing rapidly around sunset, then remaining light and variable overnight into the morning hours on Monday. The high will remain the dominant feature over the region through Monday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s, with highs Monday ranging from the mid 60s across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota, to the mid to upper 70s west of the Missouri River. Lows Monday night will be in the lower to mid 40s.
1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Today and tonight) An amplified upper pattern remains in place today with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and a ridge axis over the Great Basin. The surface cold front continues its slow march southward early this morning, but only modestly cooler temperatures are expected today in its wake. Surface flow will intensify and veer to a more NE direction by mid-morning in response to building high pressure over the northern TX Panhandle.
1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Rest of Today) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push ESE across the region this morning ahead of a cold front pushing ESE into Tennessee. The end result should be some clearing conditions from northwest to southeast over the course the afternoon as a cooler and drier air mass works its way in by early this evening.
155 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Weak ridging will be in place across the area through Monday with moisture increasing as a front settles into northern FL and Tropical Storm Ian moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
(Through Monday) High pressure ridge will build toward the east Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This cold front will move southeast into the area, and stall Monday. Lows Tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs Monday around 90 will be common, except a little cooler at the beaches.
1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Key Message * Cooler and drier conditions will persist through the upcoming week. A cold front has sagged through the area overnight, bringing what will ultimately be a pretty wholesale change to the weather across the area Sunday. This cold front moved across the I-70 corridor around 1 am and via Mosaic radar imagery appears to be approaching the I-44 corridor as of around 3:45 am. This means there should be a noticeable difference in the air mass as the cooler and drier air settles into the area.
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Now through Monday) Closed 500 mb low pressure centered over northeast Mexico and extended over the BRO CWFA today will fade tonight and be replaced by a developing deep longwave trough of low pressure over the Mississippi River Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. This trough will allow a weak cold front to approach Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the north on Monday.
Hedged toward the higher-end of the guidance for overnight temps which usually is a good bet in this flow pattern (more clouds, wind). Playbook in this flow regime is for cooler vs. Much like tonight, staying on the warmer side of NBM for minTs in the upper 40s to low 50s. On the large-scale, upper troughing extending from eastern Canada into the northeastern U. at the start of this period, should have a tendency to flatten out/lift northeast over time, as upper ridging tries to build from the western Atlantic into the eastern CONUS. Exact details on how this pattern evolves will have a significant impact on where tropical cyclone Ian tracks later in the week.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing that the upstream ridge over the western CONUS has amplified since yesterday with a deeper trough now situated over the eastern half of the country. At the surface, high pressure gradient was kicking up NW winds across the region.
As expected, high pressure is building in and temperatures are warming.
A weak cold front will creep south across the forecast area tonight into Monday, bringing isolated local drops in CIGs and VISBYs to low end MVFR levels in localized rain and patchy fog. Temperatures well above seasonal norms are expected, even with the proximity of the upper trough stretching south over the eastern Conus. Tonight, the above seasonal temperatures continue, with an increase in cloud cover from the weakening cold front and an uptick in moisture levels helping to decrease overnight radiational cooling. Somewhat cooler air will overspread the forecast area Monday behind the front, with the northern half of the forecast area most affected.
(This evening through Monday Night) Strong cold front is beginning its surge south and east into our area attm as sfc pressure rises can be seen north and west of the I-30 Corridor. Cold front pushes through our entire region tonight with post frontal cold air advection in its wake.
High pressure ridge will build toward the east Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This cold front will move southeast into the area, and stall Monday. Lows Tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs Monday around 90 will be common, except a little cooler at the beaches.
1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Today through Monday) A mid to upper level low is evident on water vapor satellite imagery this morning. The airmass over our CWA remains warm and moist with dewpoints from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. The upper low and the surface front will continue to define our weather through the short term period. The upper low is expected to continue to drift toward the west today, and some moisture advection could lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. The cold front will reach our northern border early this evening and move through the area overnight. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s across the CWA.
High pressure continues to dominate the forecast area. A developing low pressure system in the northwest is expected to move into the region by midweek bringing the slight possibility of rain showers and thunderstorms mainly in eastern portions of the state. Persistent quiescence under a dominate high pressure ridge continues in the forecast region.
The associated trough is expected to deepen through the day today over the eastern US while a ridge amplifies over the western US. The cold air advection will keep high temperatures cooler than yesterday, generally in the 70s, with dew points decreasing towards the 30s to low 40s into this afternoon. Ample mixing this afternoon has allowed for winds at the top of the mixed layer to be brought down to the surface with gusts between roughly 25 and 40 knots having already been realized today, the highest gusts in the west and north. Temperatures tonight, with the cooler air continuing to flow into the state and under mainly clear skies, will dip into the 40s.
Surface ridging was advancing eastward into portions of central and western KS. Slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures are forecast to advance over the area Monday with afternoon highs in the 70s. The forecast period will continue to remain mostly dry and as midlevel ridging across the western US gradually spreads east through midweek.
Focus then shifts to the cold front which will enter the far NW forecast area by 5-6pm and steadily push through the region overnight. Look for cooler and drier air to move in behind the front. Look for MaxT to range from 81- 88 which will be some 5-10 degrees cooler than today. Analysis of various models and forecast soundings, strong subsidence in the wake of the front will serve to provide a solid source of dry air in the lower atmosphere.
152 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Cold front exits east of the mountains this afternoon. A cold front reaches the eastern mountains this afternoon, exiting quickly and ending the showers activity. This will drop lows into the lower 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations of our northeast mountains. Below normal temperatures expected for Monday with highs in the lower 70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s highest peaks.
148 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Northwesterly flow aloft continues over the forecast area this afternoon as the region remains between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough over the east. Relatively quiet weather will continue through the much of this week due to the broad upper ridge building in from the west.
1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Today through Monday Night) Southeast Texas is still on track for one more very warm day today before the arrival of Monday's cold front. Winds will shift to the north late tonight through the day on Monday as a pre-frontal trough and the front itself move into the area. Monday night is when we begin to really feel the effects of the cold front as significantly lower dew points filter into the area from the north.
203 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The area remains between a ridge to the west and trough to the east resulting in continued northwest flow aloft. The ridge will continue to amplify and shift slightly eastward thus maintaining northwesterly flow aloft through the period. At the surface, high pressure continues nudging into the western Dakotas resulting in relatively light winds in western ND, while a tighter pressure gradient is generating breezy to windy conditions in the eastern two thirds of the forecast area. Forecast highs for Monday are a bit warmer than this afternoon for western ND where westerly winds will help warm temperatures into the mid 70s.
Warm and dry sums up the conditions this week, however models continue to show an upper low moving in from the Pacific NW late in the week.
A weak cold front will pass through the area this evening, bringing a drier air mass and clear skies for Monday. Discussion: Coverage of showers has started to increase in SW VA and the northern Cumberland Plateau early this afternoon as a cold front moves E-SE across KY. The HRRR depicts the current storms expanding and merging into a line that moves across the northern and central TN Valley, then another line of storms along the cold front moves through between 22-01Z. High pressure over the Plains and a dry NW flow will build over the area through Monday. Since the main upper trough axis will still be over the upper Midwest and not strongly amplified, and the upper jet remains well north of our area, the frontal passage will not bring a strong push of cold air.
High pressure continues to build across the state through tomorrow, with the axis ending up along the Wyoming border by tomorrow afternoon. A weak low passing well to our northwest will produce some afternoon gusts tomorrow across the ridgetops in the central mountains.
Clear skies and above-normal temperatures will continue through the first part of the week as high pressure remains over the desert southwest. As high pressure builds overhead, moisture levels will continue to decrease across the region this afternoon. While an isolated shower or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the Morongo Valley, dry air moving in from the northeast will limit convective activity, and any storms that do develop should be mainly confined to the higher terrain over far southeastern San Bernardino County. Temperatures will remain 4-6 degrees above normal through the first part of the week, with the lower valleys seeing temperatures near or above 100.
An upper level low pressure system over eastern Canada continues to provide the area with plenty of cloud cover, times of rainfall, and cooler temperatures. Despite the NAM showing the potential for some instability to work with, the low level and mid level lapse rates have largely been pretty minuscule this morning. If thunderstorms are able to form, they would have the potential to produce small hail and gusty winds with the lower freezing levels, low level jet overhead, and some lake enhancement with favorable DeltaTs and negative theta-e lapse rates. Cooler air continues to trickle in on the NW flow allowing temperatures to fall back towards either side of 50 degrees tonight and only rising up to the upper 50s to mid 60s.
216 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Cold front exits east of the mountains this afternoon. A cold front reaches the eastern mountains this afternoon, exiting quickly and ending the showers activity. This will drop lows into the lower 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations of our northeast mountains. Below normal temperatures expected for Monday with highs in the lower 70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s highest peaks.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front has slowed down as expected and at 1 pm it was located roughly from near Hobbs NM, east-northeast to around Post, and then on eastward. 1 pm temps were in the upper 70s in the far southwest Panhandle to the lower 90s in the southern Rolling Plains. This will leave us with decreasing east to northeast winds, and with some slightly drier air moving in, tonight's lows should be noticably cooler that last nights' - ranging from near 50 in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast. Surface ridging slides south across Texas on Monday bringing light easterly winds to the forecast area and with ridging build in aloft, the weather will be quiet with highs mainly in the 80s - very close to average for this time of year.
The large-scale pattern won't change much over the next 36 hours, with a longwave upper-level trough over the northeastern CONUS, and a very large upper-level ridge axis centered over the Intermountain West states.
410 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today ahead of an incoming cold front. Additional showers are possible through mid week under persistent upper troughing, which will also result in seasonably cool temperature. No appreciable change was needed for the eve update as showers and isolated thunderstorms are accompanying a cold front across the area this aftn.
Noticably cooler temperatures and breezy northerly winds are anticipated across the local area today as cooler air advects in from the north behind yesterdays cold front. While cooler temperatures are on tap. and drier air in the wake of yesterdays cold front. expect seasonable temps all with with highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s. along with dry conditions as high pressure aloft transitions across the local area with no notable disturbances expected to impact the local area.
The surface cold front has cleared the region with breezy northwest winds filling in behind. Those winds will steadily bring in a little bit cooler and drier air thorugh today and tomorrow. Skies should be mostly clear with a few high clouds as the main trough axis works through tomorrow. The only potential issue today and tomorrow will be enhanced wildfire danger due to the low relative humidities and northwest breezes on the abnormally dry landscape.
H5 analysis this morning had low pressure over the UP of Michigan. A trough extended south of this feature into the Ohio Valley. A ridge axis extended from Nevada, north northwest into northern British Columbia. At the surface overnight, high pressure was present over northeastern Wyoming and frontal boundary was located over central Kansas. The axis of this high pressure will be oriented from northwestern Kansas into northwestern Nebraska later this afternoon.
(This evening through Monday) Cold front that moved through earlier today will continue to push southward from reinforced northerly winds. Behind the front, drier and cooler air will overspread the area into tomorrow. Dropped the overnight lows a little cooler than NBM owing to the drier air and sufficient radiational cooling. Northerly winds will weaken tomorrow, which will allow for highs to get up into the low to mid 80s with sunny skies.
KBYX reflects this moistening, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms development near the island chain, with the highest coverage in the distant Straits of Florida.
Sunday: The weather will remain dry and quiet today after the passage of yesterdays cold front. We will stay in northwest flow as a broad trough very slowly shifts east.
Upper high continues to strengthen and dominate the west. It will gradually shift east tonight and Monday providing warmer temperatures, with highs tomorrow in the lower to mid 80s, which is a little above normal for this time of year. Given the cooler post frontal air today and lighter winds overnight, we have some areas in the north touching the 40s with lower to mid 50s in the south. So will be one of the cooler mornings that the Panhandles have seen as we continue to push into the fall season.
DISCUSSION: As the ridge axis is positioned over western Wyoming, southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle remain on the eastern edge, allowing north to northwest flow to prevail, and keeping temperatures right around to just above normal through Monday. Current forecast high temperatures are just below NBM 75th percentile, but if the ridge axis shifts further east and westerly downsloping flow returns during the afternoon, high temperatures will likely increase a few degrees over what is currently forecast. Winds are forecast to be generally light with a few gusts 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon, and gusts up to 25 mph possible in wind prone areas and higher terrain/ridgetops.
224 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 High pressure building over the Northern Rockies will promote dry, warm and mostly clear conditions through the middle of the week.
200 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Quiet weather continues through the short term period under the influence of a large ridge.
Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures today with no chance of rain.
(This evening through Monday) Hot and dry conditions are ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures currently in the low to mid 90s amid sunny skies. Fortunately, a repreive from this unseasonably warm weather is on the horizon, with a large eastern CONUS trof expected to push a cold front into the region early tomorrow morning.
301 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Upper level ridging will remain over the area through midweek, bringing generally warm and tranquil weather to the area. Cooler air will work into the area midweek, bringing temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the second half of the week. Upper level ridging will remain in place through at least mid week, bringing tranquil conditions and increasingly warm temperatures to most of Montana through mid week.
The surface cold front has cleared the region with breezy northwest winds filling in behind. Those winds will steadily bring in a little bit cooler and drier air through today and tomorrow. Skies should be mostly clear with a few high clouds as the main trough axis works through tomorrow. The only potential issue today and tomorrow will be enhanced wildfire danger due to the low relative humidities and northwest breezes on the abnormally dry landscape.
(Tonight) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms that moved through the area along a prefrontal trough axis has dissipated. However, the cold front remains in place behind this feature and stretches from near Winchester, TN southwestward to just north of Columbus, MS. Given mainly light winds, good radiational cooling aided by some weaker cold air advection should allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s in most areas.
/19/ (This evening through Monday Night) Strong cold front is beginning its surge south and east into our area attm as sfc pressure rises can be seen north and west of the I-30 Corridor. Cold front pushes through our entire region tonight with post frontal cold air advection in its wake.
Upper level ridge has built in over the region and that is going to bring another warm afternoon for interior NorCal. Highs will be similar to a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. It will bring some cooling for Monday as heights fall and the ridge slowly starts to push east but highs will remain above average.
410 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Aviation Section Updated Upper level ridging will remain over the area through midweek, bringing generally warm and tranquil weather to the area. Cooler air will work into the area midweek, bringing temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the second half of the week. Upper level ridging will remain in place through at least mid week, bringing tranquil conditions and increasingly warm temperatures to most of Montana through mid week.
700 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Through Monday) High pressure ridge will build toward the east Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This cold front will move southeast into the area, and stall Monday. Lows Tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs Monday around 90 will be common, except a little cooler at the beaches.
Upper level northwest flow will remain in place over the Northern Plains through the short term period as ridging builds over the western part of the country. The high moves over the region tonight, which will result in the gusty winds diminishing rapidly around sunset, then remaining light and variable overnight into the morning hours on Monday. The high will remain the dominant feature over the region through Monday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s, with highs Monday ranging from the mid 60s across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota, to the mid to upper 70s west of the Missouri River. Lows Monday night will be in the lower to mid 40s.
The upper level ridge has settled in over the region and conditions will remain dry through the short term. Expect temperatures to be about 10 degrees above seasonal normal and in the mid to high 80s for much of the CWA and mid to high 70s for the higher terrains.