Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
143 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 A large area of high pressure will build from the Central Great Lakes to the eastern seaboard through Saturday. A ridge will extend westward to the Great Lakes while a warm front sets up across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will trend warmer by the middle of the week as an upper level ridge build overhead. High pressure is centered near Chicago this morning with satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies.
- 1-4 inches of rain expected over the next 7 days, with the higher amounts expected south of I-70. A break from the rain is then expected for a short time Saturday afternoon, but a warm front will start slowly advancing north into the southern part of the forecast area in the late afternoon.
Tranquil weather conditions in place across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, as a dome of high pressure continues to promote mostly clear, sunny, and dry weather. Despite dewpoints running a little bit higher, think we'll be well positioned for a good radiational cooling setup -- with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s once again. The center of the aforementioned ridge will slide from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, with our mean flow veering to a southeast to southerly direction this weekend. Strong subsidence from this ridge should continue to limit cloud cover during the day and keep rain chances at bay through the weekend.
/issued 405 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021/ High pressure over the central United States south of the Great Lakes this afternoon. High pressure ridges extends from southern Canada down into south Texas and out into the gulf. This large area of high pressure will bring southeast Texas and southern Louisiana several more days of sunshine and late spring temperatures.
Later on, with a surface warm front near our CWA southern border, and MCS is expected to develop and move east along or near the boundary and make it into our southern CWA by late tonight. MUCAPE will be limited, so we will depend on the moderate bulk shear and decent low-level convergence occurring just south or very near our southern border at the nose of the low-level jet.
Downtown SF is in the low 50s at this hour with a steady stratus feed over the peninsula - quite chilly by mid-May standards. Upper trough is visible on water vapor imagery, off the far northern CA coast. As this trough approaches northern CA, it will set off some gusty winds along the coast, through coastal gaps and elevated passes. Gusty winds will continue into the evening as an upper low forms over northern CA and tracks southeastward. Tomorrow, a significant cooldown will take place for inland areas, as the upper low cools the boundary layer. Spots that were in the upper 70s or low 80s today will likely only reach the low 70s tomorrow. Any rain or thunderstorms generated by the upper low will likely remain north of our CWA and over the Sierra.
Anderson (Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: As the high pressure continues to depart this afternoon, clouds will increase from the west.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s inland, with upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.
Trough of low pressure is beginning to move into the region today. This will strengthen onshore flows and allow a cooling trend for the entire area through this weekend as the low moves into the region.
450 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021 19z surface analysis had weak low over KABR with trough into southeast MT. Another trough located from south central MT into central CO. Between troughs 250-500J/kg SBCAPE has developed as well as 20-30kt effective bulk shear. Saturday, splitting upper trough develops into upper low over CA.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler than Friday with readings ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s. After this system exits, surface ridging will return and linger into the middle of the next work week, leading to another stretch of mainly dry weather. upper low will lift northeast into the western Great Lakes late in the work week.
1031 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 Currently - High pressure over the eastern United States is gradually expanding southeastward into the Atlantic. Ridging reaches above 850 mb, but transitions to broad troughing aloft along with ample moisture. High pressure spreading southeastwards off the Atlantic coast is gradually bringing in increasing northeasterlies across Keys waters.
Radar loop at 22Z indicates the potential of a few sprinkles early this evening over the Lower Susq Valley, where lower tropospheric lapse rates are steepest in vicinity of upper low over the Chesapeake Bay. Therefore, have tweaked min temps downward a bit from earlier forecast, with daybreak readings likely ranging from the mid 30s over the northwest mountains, to the mid 40s over the Lower Susq Valley. Normally colder valley locations could be a bit cooler.
Aloft, a pattern of weak troughing over the eastern CONUS with weak ridging over the Rockies puts the Upper Midwest over modest northwest flow, contributing to the influx of Pacific moisture and cooler air over the region. The added moisture, which has taken the form of cloud cover due to the pronounced dry layer in the lower 6-8 kft, has helped keep convection in check but a few isolated thunderstorms have finally popped in the far eastern Dakotas along the MN state line, where sunlight is most prevalent to aid in heightened instability. The period starts out with broad ridging taking hold over much of the CONUS during the later half of the weekend, and persisting into midweek. This will keep temperatures on the warmer end, with above normal temperatures returning after a lengthy absence.
736 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 Minimal aviation impact this cycle with high pressure influence over the terminals into Saturday. The center of 1026 mb surface anticyclone is forecasted to migrate from central Indiana this afternoon to the Mid Atlantic region by midday Saturday.
The highest chance for rain (around 15-20 percent) will remain along the coast, from Brevard southward through the overnight hours. The skies will range from mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s across the north, and mid to upper 60s across the south. Scattered showers are expected over the Atlantic waters overnight with the highest chances occurring in the offshore waters.
There is still one steadily declining supercell thunderstorm moving southeastward along/northeast of the warm front, while some additional showers/thunderstorms have been noted forming across portions of Codington, Hamlin and Deuel Counties over the past couple of hours.
Although a light return flow is expected by morning, temperatures will bottom out cooler than normal again. Though lows tonight will once again drop into the 50s, a rebound into the lower 80s will occur during the afternoon Saturday. /GG/ Tomorrow night through Friday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with westerly flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi Valley while a closed low drops through California into the Great Basin.
657 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Currently, northwest flow is holding over the Middle Mississippi Valley, with weak troughing along the east coast and weak ridging across the western United States. This convection will lay out an outflow boundary that will serve as the focus for additional convection Saturday night as the low level jet ramps up over the CWA.
Scattered, light showers continue this afternoon across the Allegheny Mtns with weak troughing. Broad high pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight, and with clearing sky, radiational cooling should allow for morning lows near 5 degrees below average. A weak, positively tilted, ern CONUS, to wrn Atlantic longwave trough with ridging ovr the WRN CONUS is projected to maintain varying degrees of nw flow ovr the Upr OH into Saturday night. Temperature in this time frame wl be near the calculated- normals as the overall atmospheric columns warms/trough fills.
Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge builds across the Pacific Northwest.
747 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure centers over the area tonight into Saturday morning and then moves offshore during the day on Saturday.
VFR conditions for this TAF cycle as high pressure continues to dominate the region.
Latest surface map shows high pressure over the area, resulting in another stellar day across the area with light winds and minimal cloudiness. This area of high pressure will shift eastward tonight and into Saturday, resulting in an eventual wind shift to the south. Tonight will continue to be quiet but low temperatures should be quite a bit warmer than the past few nights due to some weak warm air advection. Models continue to show a frontal boundary developing/lifting into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys over the weekend, as an upper level trof remains just to our west.
405 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure over the central United States south of the Great Lakes this afternoon. High pressure ridges extends from southern Canada down into south Texas and out into the gulf. This large area of high pressure will bring southeast Texas and southern Louisiana several more days of sunshine and late spring temperatures.
938 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure centers over the area tonight into Saturday morning and then moves offshore during the day on Saturday.
With that said, in the presence of a relatively low freezing level and marginal instability, can't completely discount the idea of a stronger storm or two producing hail approaching severe criteria. Additionally, winds through the lowest 10-15 kft are fairly light so not much to mix down, however inverted-V-type soundings may allow for an occasional gust up to 40 mph with any stronger activity. A handful of the high-res guidance tries to generate some weak convection under these conditions and thus have introduce some slight chance POPs.
The dry- line will set-up roughly from Lubbock southwest through the Big Bend region, with moisture advection in gusty south to south- southeast surface flow bringing dewpoints in the low to mid 60s east of the dry-line, resulting in ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/KG late this afternoon.
Meanwhile, clouds are trying to stream around the upper ridge and into the Lower Midwest. However, central Indiana is still predominantly under the influence of high pressure to the east, and it's going to take awhile for the boundary layer to become saturated this morning. The southerly flow will also contribute to the near normal temperatures this afternoon ahead of the advancing warm front in association with the Plains low. However, the best chances will remain confined to the southern portions of the forecast area where lift will be best near the warm front.
A low pressure system will move southward tonight and Saturday.
Temperatures have fallen off into the upper 40s in a few valley spots that typically get cooler such as Vinemont community. Most other locations are in the lower to mid 50s at this time. The lows will likely be met in the next few hours, before these dewpoints climb more after midnight as 925 mb flow become more southerly/southeasterly. The center of the aforementioned ridge will slide from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, with our mean flow veering to a southeast to southerly direction this weekend. Strong subsidence from this ridge should continue to limit cloud cover during the day and keep rain chances at bay through the weekend.
Mid- level clouds will be on the increase for our Saturday ahead of a low pressure system to our west. With the return flow in place, temps are expected to reach the low to mid 70s. As mentioned earlier, the persistent high pressure that provided the below normal temps is scheduled to depart today. With increased mid-level moisture, a few radar returns will be possible starting this afternoon, but with model soundings showing a deep dry layer in the low levels, expect to see more of a virga scenario until the low levels saturate by tonight.
413 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure will move slowly across the area today and tonight.
255 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Cloudy skies and warmer conditions were seen early this morning, with scattered showers across our Iowa and Missouri counties. Expect coverage to increase some this morning, especially over the southern half of the forecast area, with the highest likely PoPs along and south of a line from Sigourney,IA to Sterling, IL. Highs should top out a few degrees cooler than Friday, with readings mainly in the 60s.
Later on, with a surface warm front near our CWA southern border, and MCS is expected to develop and move east along or near the boundary and make it into our southern CWA by late tonight. MUCAPE will be limited, so we will depend on the moderate bulk shear and decent low-level convergence occurring just south or very near our southern border at the nose of the low-level jet. The lower clouds will move out mid day.
The upper level low over northern California continue to spawn some convection over southern Oregon that is spreading some clouds and possible showers across central to northeast Oregon this evening. A ridge of high pressure will nudge into and over the region Saturday while the California low moves into the Great Basin. This will lead to slight warmer temperatures on Saturday.
A minor shrtwv trof could ignite dryline tstms again Thu across PB/Lower Trans Pecos.
212 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure centers over the area tonight into Saturday morning and then moves offshore during the day on Saturday.
1030 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021 19z surface analysis had weak low over KABR with trough into southeast MT. Another trough located from south central MT into central CO. Between troughs 250-500J/kg SBCAPE has developed as well as 20-30kt effective bulk shear. Saturday, splitting upper trough develops into upper low over CA.
A cutoff low is moving south across the northern California Coast, with weaker troughing spread south towards the Baja California. Mainly zonal flow rules east of the Rockies through the Appalachians, with troughing still hanging along the Eastern Seaboard, with a cut off low dampening across the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure continues to dominate for most locations east of the Mississippi River. Broad low pressure is sprawled from the central Great Basin into the central/southern Rockies, with a wavy quasi-stationary frontal boundary generally aligned from west to east into the central Plains.
There is no evidence of dry aloft in the RAP model except across ncntl Nebraska and the VWP at KLNX indicates weak 20kt backed flow in the lower atmospheric levels representing moisture advection.
A warm front will develop over the TN Valley and move into VA late in the weekend.
354 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 A rather low-amplitude longwave trough is affecting much of the CONUS this morning. Lows will generally range from the mid 50s in the east to the lower 60s along/west of the MS River.
Broad upper ridging will also keep conditions on the dry and sunny side for us today. Temperatures will be a little warmer today into the 80s with plenty of sunshine.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 56 80 59 81 / 0 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 74 57 78 / 10 20 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 74 57 77 / 10 20 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 52 68 55 75 / 0 30 40 30 30.
The lowest chances for measurable rain is along the Missouri/Arkansas border. Highs today will be highly dependent on convection and associated cloud cover, with the current anticipation of seeing highs from the low 60s north to the low 70s south. For tonight, a warm front will slowly lift into the northern CWA. Best chances for showers and storms will be along the front, or generally along and north of the Highway 54 corridor.
319 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions today.
The lowest chances for measurable rain is along the Missouri/Arkansas border. Highs today will be highly dependent on convection and associated cloud cover, with the current anticipation of seeing highs from the low 30s north to the low 70s south. For tonight, a warm front will slowly lift into the northern CWA. Best chances for showers and storms will be along the front, or generally along and north of the Highway 54 corridor.
1010 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Temperatures have fallen off into the upper 40s in a few valley spots that typically get cooler such as Vinemont community. Most other locations are in the lower to mid 50s at this time. The lows will likely be met in the next few hours, before these dewpoints climb more after midnight as 925 mb flow become more southerly/southeasterly. The center of the aforementioned ridge will slide from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, with our mean flow veering to a southeast to southerly direction this weekend. Strong subsidence from this ridge should continue to limit cloud cover during the day and keep rain chances at bay through the weekend.
200 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 As a warm front lifts north into/across the area this weekend, it will begin a trend toward bringing warmer and more moist air to the region.
1235 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Currently, northwest flow is holding over the Middle Mississippi Valley, with weak troughing along the east coast and weak ridging across the western United States. This convection will lay out an outflow boundary that will serve as the focus for additional convection Saturday night as the low level jet ramps up over the CWA.
High pressure will bring with it above average temperatures going into the weekend. Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system along the northern California coast this evening with the center of the low forecast to be west of Reno NV over northcentral California by daybreak Saturday.
Meanwhile low pressure will strengthen over the high plains of Colorado and western Kansas. Will see a developing warm front extend east across the southern plains and into the low Mississippi river valley but return flow will not be strong enough locally for that front to extend this far east.
The remainder of the day looks pleasant with light and variable winds, highs in the mid 70s, and partly cloudy skies as high pressure sits over the area.
Will have to monitor trends through the day, but right now the highest chances for storms based on short term consensus would be across SE MN/NE IA through far western WI.
431 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend.
For this afternoon, a diffuse warm front is progged to sharpen across southern Kansas or near the Oklahoma state line.
The center of 1026 mb surface anticyclone is forecasted to migrate from central Indiana this afternoon to the Mid Atlantic region by midday Saturday.
An upper level low pressure system will move across California into the desert southwest this weekend. Just enough sufficient moisture and instability from this low will result in a couple of thunderstorms across far southwest Montana and Lemhi county in Idaho.
507 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend.
For this afternoon, a diffuse warm front is progged to sharpen across southern Kansas or near the Oklahoma state line. This warm front is progged to lift northward toward the I-70 corridor tonight and into Sunday morning.
A low amplitude 500-mb trough (currently positioned along the Mid- Atlantic coast) will advance slowly eastward into the western North Atlantic today, effectively maintaining moderately strong northwest flow aloft across the TN Valley. In the wake of this activity, a mid-level ridge axis will translate eastward across the Southern CONUS on Sunday, promoting mostly sunny skies and even warmer afternoon temps in the u70s-l80s. Mid/high-level clouds will return to the area on Sunday night, as deep-layer flow backs to the southwest and strengthens downstream from a weak trough shifting slowly eastward across eastern portions of KS/OK.
/issued 354 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021/ A rather low-amplitude longwave trough is affecting much of the CONUS this morning. Lows will generally range from the mid 50s in the east to the lower 60s along/west of the MS River. A few showers and/or thunderstorms will again be possible near the MO/KY lines Sunday, but much of the area will continue to see the affects of the ridge aloft with dry and warm conditions.
513 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 A low amplitude 500-mb trough (currently positioned along the Mid- Atlantic coast) will advance slowly eastward into the western North Atlantic today, effectively maintaining moderately strong northwest flow aloft across the TN Valley. In the wake of this activity, a mid-level ridge axis will translate eastward across the Southern CONUS on Sunday, promoting mostly sunny skies and even warmer afternoon temps in the u70s-l80s. Mid/high-level clouds will return to the area on Sunday night, as deep-layer flow backs to the southwest and strengthens downstream from a weak trough shifting slowly eastward across eastern portions of KS/OK.
1003 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 Area of showers and increased cloudiness associated with a weak inverted trough persist offshore of the Treasure Coast this morning.
Taking a look at various observations sites across the Lower Keys, island communities between Cudjoe and Big Pine Key received anywhere from 1 to as much 3 inches of rainfall. Aloft, an upper level trough is slowly lifting out of the area with ridging moving in from the west.
There is only a minimal surface pressure reflection of the wave aloft and so the wind pattern ends up light southerly from Atlantic coast high pressure.
Moisture will begin to increase later today as this high slowly shifts to the east and some mid to high clouds will move in late in the day as a weak upper level trough moves through the Tennessee Valley. In the wake of this activity, a mid-level ridge axis will translate eastward across the Southern CONUS on Sunday, promoting mostly sunny skies and even warmer afternoon temps in the u70s-l80s. Mid/high-level clouds will return to the area on Sunday night, as deep-layer flow backs to the southwest and strengthens downstream from a weak trough shifting slowly eastward across eastern portions of KS/OK.
619 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure will move slowly across the area today and tonight.
There is no evidence of dry aloft in the RAP model except across ncntl Nebraska and the VWP at KLNX indicates weak 20kt backed flow in the lower atmospheric levels representing moisture advection. Winds aloft will be strong today, 30-40 kts but weaken to 15 to 20 kts Sunday as the upper low drifts into Nebraska. There is no solid agreement in the short term models for storm initiation except the Laramie range, Cheyenne divide and Pine Ridge appear to be candidate locations.
934 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure over the upper Ohio River Valley will drift eastward through tonight. The high will reach the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday morning while maintaining a ridge across the eastern Great Lakes through mid-week.
333 AM MDT Sat May 15 2021 Upper low along northern CA coast is sinking southward with band of moisture streaming northeastward ahead of it as broad ridging over the Rockies/Plains. Weak surface trof extends north-south across central Dakotas-eastern MT.
While models all develop precipitation across the higher terrain of western South Dakota late Saturday night, they differ in how it traverses across the state on Sunday.
Otherwise, high pressure will keep winds light and VFR categories should prevail at all terminals. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 56 81 57 82 / 0 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 75 56 80 / 10 20 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 75 55 79 / 10 20 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 52 70 54 76 / 0 20 30 30 30.
High pressure reaches the Mid-Atlantic states today, allowing winds to become light southeasterly and the warming trend to continue. High pressure along the East Coast will continue to maintain light southeast winds and a dry air mass. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer.