Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure tries to keep its grip through Friday. A frontal boundary on the northern side of the ridge will sag southward through the Ohio Valley, parallel to the H5 moisture fetch, and may provide a few showers in SW VA and far NE TN late tonight and Friday before high pressure restrengthens and shoves the boundary and moisture fetch northward from whence it came. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Big Bend region of FL combined with cyclogenesis out west will work to feed a sly waa regime over the Deep South.
Upper level ridging will dominate through the near term with dry conditions persisting. Lows tonight will only drop into the 60s with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s, well above normal for the highs and near a record high for the day at TLH (within three degrees).
1133 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 High pressure will drift east of the region today, maintaining dry and milder weather across the region. A weak cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes region today, then lay out west to east and become stationary across Pennsylvania late this week. This front will be the focus for several waves of low pressure to ride along and provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend. Still looking at maxes of 55-60 for most places, except around 50F across the highest terrain in the NE, and mid 60s in the Southern Valleys. The cold front approaching from the NW should arrive late in the day over Warren Co and slow as it continues to move S.
248 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 A warm front will move north across the region tonight with a dry passage, but it could slip back into northeastern North Carolina Friday afternoon, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
906 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Upper trof axis remains elongated from northeast MT to southwest ID. Isolated to scattered light rain/snow showers will continue today, gradually decreasing from northwest to southeast as upper trough axis passes over us. Tonight and Friday will be dry underneath a benign 500 mb pattern as southern portion of trough tracks through southern Rockies. Highs on Friday will again be just a bit warmer.
An upper level trough passes across The Treasure State. With Low pressure in northern Canada, and a North Pacific Low located at about 45N latitude and 130W longitude, the height gradient tightens.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move eastward slowly across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico through Friday.
(This evening through Friday) The synoptic-scale pattern is ideal for record warmth across our area, with an anomalous ridge across the Gulf extending into the southern Plains and Southeast. A weak front drifted farther south than anticipated keeping northern Oklahoma cooler than earlier thought.
/19/ High pressure at the surface & ridging aloft will remain across the region today. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Anomalous mid/upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico will provide for abnormally warm temperatures today. With the clearest skies, weakest winds and driest air remaining in the east tonight, minimums will fall into the lower 60s.
140 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 High pressure has shifted to our east setting up strong return flow which has produced significant warming across Middle Tennessee this afternoon. Tomorrow, look for even warmer temperatures, despite a warm front setting up to our north that will spread a few more clouds across the mid state.
For tonight, mostly clear with low level warm air advection taking control out ahead of a another weak cold front. The cold front should slide into northern North Dakota by daybreak Friday. Perhaps slightly warmer south where stratus and fog are once again likely.
240 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 A warm front will move north across the region tonight with a dry passage, but it could slip back into northeastern North Carolina Friday afternoon, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
226 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Low pressure will track southeast of the region today.
Another mild night is also expected with lows falling into the lower 50s on the Caprock and middle 60s in the Rolling Plains. High-level cloud cover will also increase as the upper-level trough pivots into the southern Great Plains. For tomorrow, a lee surface cyclone is expected to develop in southeastern Colorado, causing surface winds to increase perhaps to near Wind Advisory criteria in the northern Rolling Plains and southern Texas Panhandle. A Pacific cold front will move through the region tomorrow evening as the trough axis rotates across the Desert Southwest and into the southern Plains. Conditions will remain breezy through the overnight hours as well with a west wind and cooler temperatures.
245 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Wx map shows weak high pressure ridge across the Gulf, with light south to southeast winds across the region. Later this evening, expect the low level cloudiness and perhaps patchy fog to return near the daybreak hours Friday. The wind pattern aloft is dominated by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico extending its influence across the Southern Gulf states, which is expected to continue through Friday.
119 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Scattered rain showers are expected tonight and tomorrow morning with the passage of a cold front. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening ahead of an advancing cold front. By late Friday night, a deep upper-level trough located over the Great Plains is expected to advance east.
305 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 A flat cumulus line was parked over the Lower Keys, with temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints steady in the upper 60s. Deep layer anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward through the weekend as a mid latitude trough passes through the Mid Atlantic. flattening the ridge somewhat as it does.
Winds should remain light as well of the ridge retreats east.
This was to the east of a strong upper level trough digging southward through the western states. In response to this wave, a cold front was moving southward into southwest Kansas early this morning. By 3 am the front has pushed through the Highway 96 corridor. There will be a fairly wide range in high temperatures this afternoon, ranging from the low 60s in Hays to the mid/upper 80s to possibly even 90 degrees along the Oklahoma border and into far southwest Kansas. Resultingly, low temperatures will range from around 40 along I-70 to the low to mid 50s along the Oklahoma border. The stalled frontal boundary may lift back to the north somewhat during the day as low pressure develops along the front over eastern Colorado.
A warm front from central AR through south AL will lift northeast tonight. An upper level impulse pushing through the ridge position will also arrive late tonight. Very warm and near or record temperatures are anticipated on Friday with 8h temps warming into the upper teens and geo-potential heights continuing to increase within the ridge position. Highs in the lower to middle 80s are expected. Friday night's lows will only fall into the lower to middle 60s.
Large hail up to the size of golf balls will be the primary severe hazard, although damaging winds can not be ruled out given how warm the lower trop is.
212 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 A cold front drops in from the northwest tonight with showers mainly over northern areas.
Placed the highest PoPs near the border, but brought low PoPs and/or sprinkles up into the metro area for a time today.
The highest reported amount from that band of snow yesterday morning, so far, was 4 inches. The low level thermal advection pattern from tonight through Friday night is characterized as weak waa, so should gradually be seeing liquid p-type taking over as dominant p-type with the next couple of potential periods of precipitation.
High temperatures will be in the lower and mid-50s.
A broad upper ridge of high pressure stretching from east TX to the FL Peninsula and western Atlantic will begin to shift east by Fri afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 60s for most inland areas and the middle to upper 60s along the immediate coast.
Hot temperatures will return to the area on Friday as a sw flow increases with deep layer ridge building in from the Gulf. Maximum temperatures will be in the lower 90s inland.
High pressure centered over the Carolinas will maintain light to moderate southerly flow tonight with winds expected to increase after sunrise Friday as a deepening low over eastern Colorado tightens the pressure gradient across the region. /issued 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/ Wx map shows weak high pressure ridge across the Gulf, with light south to southeast winds across the region. Later this evening, expect the low level cloudiness and perhaps patchy fog to return near the daybreak hours Friday. The wind pattern aloft is dominated by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico extending its influence across the Southern Gulf states, which is expected to continue through Friday.
The weather system responsible for gusty winds, cooler temperatures and some light showers or sprinkles will pass through tonight and Friday. Expect much cooler conditions on Friday with many areas 15 degrees below normal.
The 00z KEY sounding already observed a 500 mb height of 5910 meters, and the high center is progged to move into the eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula through this weekend.
707 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 A cold front drops in from the northwest tonight with showers mainly over northern areas.
640 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 High pressure is over the area with high clouds filtering into south Arkanasas. The high will move east of the state Friday.
Temperatures were in the lower to middle 40s, except in the upper 30s near the Bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan. Under mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to middle 20s far north, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s south. It will be warmer with highs in the lower to middle 50s away from the bay and lake where readings are only expected to be in the lower to middle 40s.
Meanwhile, expanded Freeze Warnings around much of Clear Lake and into the Russian River Valley, as conditions should be similar to last night; if anything a little less valley fog may allow for more widespread freezing temps there.
High pressure tries to keep its grip through Friday. A frontal boundary on the northern side of the ridge will sag southward through the Ohio Valley, parallel to the H5 moisture fetch, and may provide a few showers in SW VA and far NE TN late tonight and Friday before high pressure restrengthens and shoves the boundary and moisture fetch northward from whence it came. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 86 63 78 62 / 10 10 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 82 62 77 62 / 0 10 0 0 70 Oak Ridge, TN 59 82 62 77 61 / 0 10 0 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 79 59 80 61 / 10 20 10 0 40.
High pressure has shifted to our east setting up strong return flow which has produced significant warming across Middle Tennessee this afternoon. Tomorrow, look for even warmer temperatures, despite a warm front setting up to our north that will spread a few more clouds across the mid state.
GFS/NAM have the front lingering over the southern part of the CWA early on Friday before it begins to move back north as a warm front late in the day. Upper ridge will move across the area early in the day which suppress chances somewhat, but then chances will increase late in the afternoon and evening as upper flow begin to turn out of the southwest in advance of an upper low coming out of the western CONUS. If thunderstorms are able to develop along the warm front, then MLCAPES will be in excess of 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear will be in excess of 60kts, so supercells will be possible over the area.
However, lingering moisture in the north will lead to a slight chance of snow showers across the higher elevations of Baker County and the West Central and Boise Mountains Friday afternoon. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer on Friday, but still 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
923 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 A cold front drops in from the northwest tonight with showers mainly over northern areas.
On Friday, a cold front will bring snow showers at times and very cold temperatures.
635 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Rain will overspread the region tonight and end tomorrow morning with the passage of a cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible across Ohio into NW West Virginia as warm, moist flow within the low-level jet yields some elevated instability. The cold front and disturbance will fade into the southern portion of the CWA, likely somewhere south of I-70, by late tonight. Rainfall will come to an end by dawn for most locations as ridging builds, though a few showers are possible on Friday along the frontal boundary. By late Friday night, a deep upper-level trough located over the Great Plains is expected to advance east.
The high temperature at Leesburg reached 87 this afternoon which ties the daily maximum temp record for the date.
High pressure tries to keep its grip through Friday. A frontal boundary on the northern side of the ridge will sag southward through the Ohio Valley, parallel to the H5 moisture fetch, and may provide a few showers in SW VA and far NE TN late tonight and Friday before high pressure restrengthens and shoves the boundary and moisture fetch northward from whence it came. GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 86 63 78 62 / 10 10 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 82 62 77 62 / 0 10 0 0 70 Oak Ridge, TN 59 82 62 77 61 / 0 10 0 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 59 80 61 / 10 20 10 0 40.
920 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 A warm front will move north across the region tonight with a dry passage, but it could slip back into northeastern North Carolina Friday afternoon, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper trough moves east tonight with higher pressure bringing drier weather on Friday.
All terminals will likely gusty 30+ knots during the PM with KCNM/KHOB showing the highest potential for breaching 40kts at times.
904 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Rain will overspread the region tonight and end tomorrow morning with the passage of a cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible across Ohio into NW West Virginia as warm, moist flow within the low-level jet yields some elevated instability. The cold front and disturbance will fade into the southern portion of the CWA, likely somewhere south of I-70, by late tonight. Rainfall will come to an end by dawn for most locations as ridging builds, though a few showers are possible on Friday along the frontal boundary. By late Friday night, a deep upper-level trough located over the Great Plains is expected to advance east.
837 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Mostly clear skies and light or calm winds with temps dropping into the lower the mid 60s. With dew points also in the lower to mid 60s, expect fog to develop once again overnight. Upper level ridging will dominate through the near term with dry conditions persisting. Lows tonight will only drop into the 60s with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s, well above normal for the highs and near a record high for the day at TLH (within three degrees).
There is a chance for patchy fog late tonight/early tomorrow morning for inland areas, but the high resolution guidance suggests much less favorable conditions for this than we've seen over the previous few nights. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move eastward slowly across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico through Friday.
On Friday, a cold front will bring better chances for snow showers and very cold temperatures.
The current severe thunderstorm watch is set to expire at 10Z for the area north of the Highway 54 corridor. As we go through the day on Friday, a deep trough stationed across the southwest CONUS will begin to sweep out across the Plains.
Upper level ridging and height rises will help temperatures soar into the 80s this afternoon.
322 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Early summer-like conditions expected the next 3 days, as an upper ridge expanding from the south, and southerly winds, help bring a big warm up, well into the 80s away from the immediate coast through the weekend.
215 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Montana will be in an upper ridge the next few days with warm temperatures and dry weather.
1255 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Rain will end early this morning with the passage of a cold front.
This boundary will sag further south toward our area through late morning/early afternoon but should stay to our north as the high pressure centered to our south holds steady. So while the vast majority of our area will be dry today, there are slight chance and low-end chance POPs in place right along the TN/KY state line with the higher POPs in across southwest VA. The boundary lifts north overnight in response to the amplifying ridge as a trough approaches from out of the Great Plains.
Deep layer ridging with dry conditions and near record high temperatures will continue.
Probability of precip at TRI still too low to mention in TAFs SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 63 78 62 73 / 10 0 10 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 62 77 62 72 / 10 0 0 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 82 62 77 61 72 / 10 0 10 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 59 80 61 71 / 20 10 0 40 40.
With the amount of forcing, shear, and (relatively weak) instability, marginally severe hail will be possible in advance of the cold front that will travel eastward across the region tonight.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/ Wx map shows weak high pressure ridge across the Gulf, with light south to southeast winds across the region. Later this evening, expect the low level cloudiness and perhaps patchy fog to return near the daybreak hours Friday. The wind pattern aloft is dominated by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico extending its influence across the Southern Gulf states, which is expected to continue through Friday.
248 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020 08z surface analysis had weak high over the Midwest with trough from southeast MT into central CO. Water vapour depicted upper trough from central MT into southern CA. Attention turns to upper trough. Today/tonight, upper trough lifts northeast as 130kt jet streak kicks it out.
There is a chance for patchy fog late tonight/early tomorrow morning for inland areas, but the high resolution guidance suggests much less favorable conditions for this than we've seen over the previous few nights. /issued 323 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020/ High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move eastward slowly across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico through Friday.
That trend will continue this morning, with a slight chance of sprinkles mainly, but rain chances increase this afternoon and evening as large scale height falls begin in advance of the trough moving through the Rockies. Cloudy skies with a northeasterly surface wind should keep temperatures slightly cooler than previously forecast, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
327 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Convection this morning has remained well to the north in Kansas in association with a warm front that was across that region. Today will be 'cooler' than the upper 80s to mid 90s that were realized across much of the forecast area yesterday as high clouds and a surge of low level moisture has advected into the area. There is still uncertainty concerning convective evolution this evening and tonight as an upper level trough pushes out of the mountain west region into the central plains.
A cold front will bring additional precipitation to southern Utah overnight before shifting east of the area tomorrow. The associated trough will bring the threat of showers to much of Utah during the day Friday.
High pressure aloft will remain overhead today through the weekend, keeping very warm temperatures in place. The afternoon sea breeze will keep coastal regions a bit cooler (if you can call it that), but we are looking at mid-90s for locations away from the coast this weekend.
311 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 An upper level low over California will move east today into the Four Corners Region by this evening. Strong upper level westerly winds on the southern periphery of the low will mix into the Guadalupe Mountains with very windy conditions extending into the adjacent plains.
Anomalous mid level ridge over the eastern CONUS continues to sharpen as a potent trough moves across the Rockies. While these conditions continue or even get stronger today, would expect as warm or warmer highs again today, especially given the warmer conditions this morning.
Daytime highs will reach the low to mid 80s and couldn't rule out a few spots reaching the upper 80s. Dry conditions and warmer than normal temps will persist into tonight as high pressure lingers a little bit longer. Seasonable overnight lows are 44-45 degrees and tonight, they will be more like normal afternoon temps in the low to mid 60s.
1107 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 (This evening through Friday) The synoptic-scale pattern is ideal for record warmth across our area, with an anomalous ridge across the Gulf extending into the southern Plains and Southeast. A weak front drifted farther south than anticipated keeping northern Oklahoma cooler than earlier thought.
359 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Rain will end early this morning with the passage of a cold front.
High pressure over the region will keep warm and dry conditions over the waters through the next several days.
244 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Scattered showers will end this morning as a cold trough moves east. Some weak ridging aloft will allow temperatures to moderate into Saturday, but onshore flow will maintain a deep marine layer, with clouds redeveloping each night.
things become more interesting as there will be a bit of elevated instability across the local area as an upper level low off the coast of southern California this morning begins to approach the local area. A dynamically vigorous upper level low will be moving across the local area on Saturday. with model guidance indicating a very windy day is in store on the backside of the aforementioned low pressure system.
728 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Aviation A cold front will become stationary across northern Indiana today and slowly move back northward on Saturday.
526 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020 08z surface analysis had weak high over the Midwest with trough from southeast MT into central CO. Water vapour depicted upper trough from central MT into southern CA. Attention turns to upper trough. Today/tonight, upper trough lifts northeast as 130kt jet streak kicks it out. Cyclogenesis occurs over the OK panhandle, moving into the Midwest by Saturday morning as it becomes a distinct upper low. Wet bulb zeros suggest mostly snow over the higher elevations with a few inches possible.
With the western two-thirds of the CWA sitting in the equivalent of a "col-region" at the surface this morning, favorable set up for dense fog and in some cases in the higher terrain spots "low clouds reaching all the way down to the ground". Fog will begin to lift throughout the morning hours before mid level low pressure propagates across the central plains today through Saturday.
/issued 407 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Very warm temperatures expected again today, although abundant mid and high cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday. An upper level trough, currently over the southwest states, will lift northeast across the Southern Rockies today and into the Central Plains on Saturday. This system will drag a Pacific cold front across the area overnight and will bring cooler conditions for Saturday, with temperatures returning to seasonal values. Cooler temperatures and gusty west winds will develop behind the front late tonight, with overnight lows in the 50s.
An upper level trough shifting overhead this morning will bring the threat of showers to much of the forecast area today.
Fog will begin to lift throughout the morning hours before mid level low pressure propagates across the central plains today through Saturday.
539 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Rain will end early this morning with the passage of a cold front.