Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1026 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Thunderstorms will continue across the area through early tonight ahead of a strong cold front and associated vigorous upper level system. Much cooler weather will arrive Friday with highs only in the 60s over northwest Indiana and the lower 70s over most of northwest Ohio.
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 After scattered diurnal thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, a cold front will bring more numerous thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Cooler and less humid for the weekend. For Friday, models are in pretty good agreement on a significant cold front headed our way.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered northeast of the Bahamas tonight.
Main cold front is still back across eastern Iowa into west central Missouri, with a sizable gap in convection along it. In terms of any threat of strong storms, what's going on now may actually be the main show, as the higher resolution models suggest more of a disorganized line ahead of the front this evening. Strong upper low currently over north central Minnesota will swing eastward toward eastern Lake Superior by Friday afternoon. Some afternoon sunshine further west and a warming air mass behind the main trough will allow for some warmer conditions, but still only in the mid 70s.
Winds will decrease under the high but currently thinking they might stay up just enough to inhibit any fog development following the area's recent rainfall. Depending on how much winds die down, temperatures could drop a bit lower than currently forecast also (down into the upper 40s), especially across central and eastern North Dakota closest to the main ridge axis. High pressure will remain in control of the region on Friday with plenty of sunshine (especially early) with highs reaching into the 70s. Long wave ridge off the west coast shifts onshore. Long wave trough retrogrades slightly over eastern North America. Cold front is expected to move through Tue.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front moves south through the area. /issued 339 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ A cold front will move southeast across Oklahoma into north Texas tonight into Friday.
513 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Western CONUS upper ridge is putting the northern plains in northwest flow, and an upper low as pushing into the Great Lakes. Winds are generally northerly around 10 kts, and temperatures behind yesterday's cold front are only in the 60s. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s.
535 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure will maintain mainly clear and dry conditions through Friday morning.
Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to gradually diminish Friday night as the cold front drops into north Georgia and becomes stationary.
/issued 343 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ (Today and Friday) Our area is currently under weak northwest flow aloft, with a prominent ridge over the southwestern CONUS and parts of the West Coast, and an upper trough diving southeast into the upper Midwest. A disturbance in the northwest flow aloft is expected to initiate convection over northeastern New Mexico through late this afternoon, while additional showers and thunderstorms develop over parts of the Texas Panhandle in association with a weak cold front. The aforementioned cold front will sag south across parts of the Red River Valley overnight, and should remain nearly stationary just north of our area on Friday. With 850mb temperatures slightly higher on Friday, highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s across our area.
Autumn-like cyclone over the region this afternoon will lift northeastward as it matures tonight. The rain will gradually end from west to east as the low departs. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer for the end of the work week with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. This should result in at least small chances for precip just about every day, as well as temps being near normal or slightly below as the primary heat and humidity axis remains shunted off to our south by several intrusions of Canadian-source high pressure behind each departing disturbance.
1039 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Friday and bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially west of the Blue Ridge, late Friday afternoon into Friday night. High pressure will then bring fair and somewhat cooler weather for the first part of the weekend.
/Tonight through Friday/ Cold front has pushed through the state with much colder air moving into Iowa tonight into Friday. Additionally winds may stay up a bit longer in the far northeast closer to the low and where some wrap-around clouds expected to remain much of tonight. As the winds die off some late tonight and with the cooler air in place, the western/southwestern portions of the CWA could drop off into the mid to upper 40s overnight. Temperatures will remain cooler into Friday with the cooler air in place and a scattered CU field could develop through the day.
This feature will help carve out an eastern CONUS trough, bringing a shot of seasonably cool air to the region tonight into Friday. Before the cooler air arrives, we must first deal with convection. First, is the synoptic cold front located across central into northeast MO. Therefore, expect pulse/multicell clusters to persist along the cold front this afternoon into this evening as it slides southeast through the area. The passing cold front tonight should usher in a seasonably cool airmass to the Midwest. KD Unseasonably cool conditions can be expected Friday night with a clear sky, light surface wind, and surface dew points only in the lower to middle 50s leading to good radiational cooling.
1041 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cold front has moved through the forecast area this afternoon, while drier, cooler air has gradually drifted in behind. Have steered clear of bias-corrected guidance and lowered temperatures to a blend of raw model solutions, which brings lows into the low 50s for most locations. Full sun and light winds will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees tomorrow even in the wake of the cold front, but even the warmth will feel quite a bit different with dewpoints lingering in the low 50s throughout the day.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the eastern half of the country with northwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, a trough has moved off the coast taking most of the convection with it. The upper trough will continue to move slowly to the east and northwesterly flow to remain during this period.
For Friday, models have highlighted and continue to highlight southern areas seeing the bulk of convection though some showers will pop over the higher terrain from just north of I-70 southward. As far as the synoptic scale is concerned, an area of low pressure will meander just off the northern California coast for much of the period. This variance will bring the higher moisture to the area and the heavier showers and stronger storms.
A mid level cloud deck continues to cover much of the region today, keeping temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday at this time.
903 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will remain stalled over southern Quebec through tonight and will lift north on Friday.
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cooler and drier air will continue to spread into the area tonight through Friday as upper trough currently moving into the lower Missouri Valley this afternoon swings east and digs across the Ohio Valley. Will carry a period of sprinkles for the early evening in northern and eastern parts of the area as upstream radars show some light returns dropping south with the upper trough this afternoon.
On a wider view, a cold front moving southward across the eastern CONUS was accompanied and preceded by scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. The trough axis and front will be in close vertical proximity during the day on Friday with at least scattered if not numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Still looks like an unsettled weather pattern setting up over the next seven days, as wavy upper level low pressure system extends further southward than is typical for this time of year. Still looks like a cold front will sweep through on Friday, bringing an increase in showers and thunderstorms.
1133 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Upper closed low south of the Aleutians and a strong Hudson Bay low allowing a sharp warm ridge along the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. Strong Bermuda high off the east coast with trough from the Hudson Bay low into the Mississippi Valley. Next major wave over the western Provinces of Canada as seen in water vapor and will allow for even cooler air to be rotated into the northern plains.
/Issued 259 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front that is currently moving across southeast Kansas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes to the south. After a quite Friday evening across the region, the chances of showers and thunderstorms return late Friday night with isentropic lift occurring to the north of the surface boundary as it retreats to the north as a warm front.
1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure will maintain mainly clear and dry conditions through Friday morning.
958 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Storms may persist after dark (00-06z Sat) given degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper level system and seasonably strong surface cold front. Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be entering the region after max heating with waning instability. But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for developing convection during the afternoon.
/issued 327 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ Daytime heating over the southwest Panhandle along a very slow moving cold front was leading to modest thunderstorms, close to the depiction of majority of the short term solutions.
Temperatures are still in the 80s however overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler tonight than they have been.
916 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. That is in response to available moisture and increasing overall ascent on the eastern flank of the eastward digging upper trough, digging toward Wisconsin this evening. The associated cold front of that system will increase rain chances after daybreak and bring the potential for severe weather Friday afternoon into Friday evening. In addition, the convection-spawning front/prefrontal trough passage may not not coincide with better shear values.
Otherwise, as high pressure settles in overnight, expect clearing skies, light winds and cool temperatures. Sided towards the cooler end of available guidance given the synoptic setup, although keeping in mind that wet soils may keep temps up just a touch. Friday will be a pleasant day as high pressure remains in control. The 50h flow remains from the north to northwest from the Friday night through Thursday time period with a couple upper troughs/low pressure areas moving out of Canada and southeast across the Northern Plains. This flow will keep the cooler than normal air moving across our region through the entire period.
1032 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 High pressure will remain offshore through Friday.
Cooler and drier air will spill into the area fairly quickly behind the departing front. Louisville may even get in on the act, but the climate sites should all remain just above daily record lows, which are in the lower/mid 50s.
This activity was still ahead of the main cold front which was positioned from the Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma to North Central Oklahoma and extended northeast into far Southeast Kansas to Northeast Missouri. the cold front is forecast to push across Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas to near the Interstate 40 corridor Friday morning. Have adjusted pops based on current trends with the higher pops pushing toward the I-40 corridor overnight with the movement of the front. Behind the cold front. cooler conditions should begin to filter into the region late tonight while partly to mostly cloudy skies hold over the CWA. Low temps look to get down into the low/mid 60s near the Kansas border to the upper 60s/low 70s ahead of the front in Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 86 66 86 / 20 50 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 84 63 83 / 10 50 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 84 63 84 / 10 60 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 83 60 81 / 0 50 50 10.
The next upper trough, visible this afternoon on GOES-16 water vapor imagery (6.
722 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Weak high pressure will centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast slides farther offshore Friday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish early this evening as an upper level short wave trough progresses eastward and away from the area. Temperatures will remain nearly steady overnight and slightly cooler than normal for Friday due continuous cloud cover and expected rainfall that will prevent temperatures from climbing. Moisture (PWATs AOA 2 inches) does not go anywhere fast and with the weakness in the upper ridge seems illogical to not have chance POPs in the forecast.
1034 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 After scattered diurnal thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, a cold front will bring more numerous thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Cooler and less humid for the weekend. For Friday, models are in pretty good agreement on a significant cold front headed our way.
1133 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A weak cold front currently draped across Oklahoma will slowly work its way south overnight, crossing the Red River Friday morning before stalling. A cold front extended southeast of a Kansas City, MO to Gage OK, to Dalhart, TX line as of 3 PM.
Showers will return to the area overnight especially over se Ga as a moist sw flow persists ahead of an upper trough axis. Numerous showers and storms expected across southeast Georgia on Friday with less coverage over ne Fl as moisture axis shifts north and ridge starts to build across the Fl peninsula. Light sw flow will continue tonight and Friday as high pressure builds to the south.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a pre-frontal trough from Randolph County eastward into Dunklin County. Despite the warm and muggy conditions tonight, relief is on the way with an approaching trough and associated cold front increasing chances for precipitation tomorrow. Daytime heating in combination with the cold frontal passage will allow for scattered coverage of storms across the region. A shift to northerly winds coinciding with the frontal passage will bring lower dew points and cooler temperatures Friday night, with lows near 60 in our northern areas and closer to the mid 60s in Memphis and north Mississippi.
A cold front extended southeast of a Kansas City, MO to Gage OK, to Dalhart, TX line as of 3 PM.
Any chances for thunderstorms tonight will shift southward to near and along the Oklahoma border as a cold front continues to push south across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Cooler air will filter down into western Kansas tonight dropping H85 temperatures well down into the mid teens(C) across much of the area. A developing lee side trough of low pressure will strengthen across eastern Colorado Friday setting up a moderate southerly flow across western Kansas. This will enhance warm air advection into the western part of the state allowing highs to push the lower to mid 80s(F) Friday afternoon. An additional round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday night as another series of H5 vort maxima kick out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains within a northwest flow aloft.
High temperatures rebound slightly on Friday as the 850mb thermal ridge nudges east.
616 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cold front has moved through the forecast area this afternoon, while drier, cooler air has gradually drifted in behind. Have steered clear of bias-corrected guidance and lowered temperatures to a blend of raw model solutions, which brings lows into the low 50s for most locations. Full sun and light winds will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees tomorrow even in the wake of the cold front, but even the warmth will feel quite a bit different with dewpoints lingering in the low 50s throughout the day.
725 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Thunderstorms will continue across the area through early tonight ahead of a strong cold front and associated vigorous upper level system. Much cooler weather will arrive Friday with highs only in the 60s over northwest Indiana and the lower 70s over most of northwest Ohio.
Latest surface analysis places the region under a large surface anticyclone currently occupying much of southeastern CONUS. Most recent H5 analysis depicts a longwave trough axis extending from eastern Canada southward down the Atlantic seaboard, while a ridge axis extends up the Great Plains over central CONUS. Conditions will remain pleasant over the weekend as the aforementioned upper ridge slowly builds into the region, with the surface anticyclone remaining in place. This will allow temperatures to warm, with highs on Saturday reaching the upper 80s, while Saturday morning low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.
Dry weather and warm temperature will follow with persistent high pressure. This has resulted in much of the limited convective activity that has developed along a short wave trough moving southeastward from the southern Great Lakes into our region generating scarcely more than virga to this point. Fries Dry, warm, and more humid weather will ensue with the building of broad high pressure this weekend. High pressure will develop Saturday afternoon, ending all restrictions. No widespread restrictions are expected as broad high pressure builds.
Meanwhile, a broad upper trough will begin to cutoff across the western Gulf during the day on Saturday. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s inland. Coastal locations will be in the lower 80s.
740 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A large upper-level ridge will build over the region over the next 48 hours.
Visible satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the area with a band of mid to high level cloudiness moving eastward across the high plains at this hour. Upper level ridge axis has pushed into the central plains with southwest flow increasing across the region. A weak cold front will begin moving southward across central Wyoming late tonight and into tomorrow, so high temperatures may not be quite as warm as today well north of Interstate 80.
Expect further warming into tomorrow as Iowa should be fully into the warm sector with brisk SSW winds as our current weak warm front pushes north and east out of the area. This would place highs closer to the warmer ECMWF MOS and CMC guidance, in the mid to upper 90s SE-NW.
High pressure remains anchored over the mid TN Valley leading into the mid/srn Atlantic states, thereby helping with the calm wx pattern. The upper trough will shift to the northeast, as the subtropical ridge builds northward and into the area.
The main mid level trough over the western US has allowed southwest flow aloft over the northern Rockies. This has supported a deepening lee side trough and therefore a strong southerly flow. Forecast soundings are indicating that the combination of the higher low level moisture and a cooling boundary layer could lead to low level clouds tonight. The better chances for these clouds appear to be across western and central KS where the higher moisture is forecasted. High temperatures should be warmer than normal in the lower to mid 90s with heat indices up to 100 at some locations.
Moisture is moving back up from the south, keeping the chances of showers and storms on the high side through the TAF period. Our weather today through Saturday will continue to be influenced by a large scale mid-upper level trough extending down from the mid Atlantic coast.
Another fantastic day is on tap tomorrow, though it will be warmer and RH values will be a little higher as some weak return flow begins across the state.
High pressure over the Gulf will drive large scale light to moderate southeast winds, with continued plentiful low level moisture and thus a few low clouds on Saturday. A mid level low will move slowly over East Texas, with eastward moving mid level ridging upstream over the Southwest United States. Little in the way of rain is expected with the low due to location of trough axis and limited moisture. Much of the CWA remains on the subsident side of the trough, with moisture remaining confined to the lower levels (generally below 850 mb)with much of the mid and upper levels remaining dry in north to northwest flow. Otherwise, hot conditions expected to persist with highs ranging from the lower 90s east to around the century mark out west and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s area wide.
Overnight, deep tropospheric geopotential height rises are anticipated across the region, as a deep layer mean anticyclone intensifies and expands westward. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution late tonight over the Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel, west of the Seven Mile Bridge for a short-lived southerly wind surge. A weakening trough over the Florida Peninsula will move slowly northeastward over the western North Atlantic overnight.
Overnight lows will be five degrees warmer tonight as dewpoints are slightly warmer.
706 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Weak low pressure and associated frontal boundary will work east through area this evening.
Large scale mid tropospheric pattern features a closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast (which is part of a Rex block), a trough over the western U. S and a ridge that stretches from Mexico into the northern Plains.
At the upper levels, ridging is still over much of the central US and it will take a few days before it moves east. This pattern will result in continued dry conditions with much warmer temperatures and gusty winds.
920 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Low pressure over Lower Michigan will weaken while tracking toward Lake Ontario tonight. A strong upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend ushering in hot and humid conditions. Lows will be warmer, mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Strong upper ridge builds over the entire forecast area this weekend ushering in hotter and more humid conditions.
Water vapor loop shows upper ridging into the Northern Plains, starting to transition over to southwesterly flow aloft as a large trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Deep layer bulk shear is around 40-50 kts, and with winds backing in the lower levels some supercells will be possible with the first round of convection. After that first round moves east during the late evening, many of the high resolution models bring a second round in from the west after midnight with the cold front.
Despite today being a little cooler than expected, see no reason to extend that thinking into tomorrow as we continue to dry out and a westerly component in the surface flow migrates east to the edge of the Caprock out of New Mexico tomorrow under modest height rises.
With southwest flow becoming established, overnight lows tonight will run quite a bit warmer than previous night - ranging from upper 50s in the river valleys to mid 60s across western parts of the FA. On Saturday, mid-level ridging will begin to nudge northward into the Ohio Valley. H5 ridge will strengthen across the ern U.
As the low level jet mixes towards the surface, could see wind gust approach advisory criteria in the late morning hours in southwest Minnesota.