Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TO THE SOUTHEAST THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN THEN DRIZZLE/RAIN. EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO FORM THERE AS A RESULT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO UTAH OVERNIGHT REMAINING STATIONARY TOMORROW. GENERAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WORKS WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FOR ALL BUT THE HILL CITY AREA. FREEZING RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW 20S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
STILL EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET/ECMWF NUMBERS AS A START AND BUMPED UP A BIT FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. AM EXPECTING THE HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE COAST TO CONTINUE. A CFW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
313 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AROUND YAKIMA AND LA GRANDE WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE LOWER BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THIS AREA AS THE AIR PICKS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SNOW COVER. UPDATES THIS EVENING INVOLVED ADJUSTING AREA WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW AND ADDING A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO CENTRAL OREGON.
QUICKER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE UPPER LEVELS.
TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST UP WITH THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT DID NOT CHANGE FROM THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SO UPDATED THE TRENDS BUT LEFT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT.
RESULTING IN LESS FREEZING RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
350 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMMENSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE EAST COAST STATES. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADE RANGE WITH AN UPPER LOW EAST OF SAVANNAH. THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER FLORIDA BAY ARE DUE THE SHALLOW WATER COOLING OFF TO NEAR EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE AIR MOVING ALOFT. AND STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING LOWER MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHED THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CASCADES AND NEVADA. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE FLORIDA GEORGIA COAST. AND THE MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE PROGRESS OF ANY PATTERN CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR THIS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINT SOUTH WILL BE INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SUFFICIENT LOWER BL SATURATION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SATURATION IS MAXIMIZED WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE -8C OR WARMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN UT INTO SRN CA AS SWRLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FROM THE SRN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER NEVADA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN NW OK TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS THAT CHANGING OVER AFTER 6Z FRIDAY SO DON'T HAVE IN TAF FOR NOW. RESULTING IN LESS FREEZING RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 643 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015/ STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 359 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015/ STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, IS KEEP A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A 500MB RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, WILL HELP TO HAMPER THE SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS.
Surface analysis indicates a 1040 mb high pressure cell just north of the border which is helping to fuel these light winds.
MAIN BAND OF SNOW WITH UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVER NORTHEAST NV WITH A FEW BANDS WORKING ACROSS EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 309 PM PST WED NOV 25 2015/ LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA INTO THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 648 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ONE TO TWO THOUSAND FEET OVER THE COMING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY.
1221 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING TREND.
854 PM PST WED NOV 25 2015 COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING A BIT BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
937 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015 THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG GREAT BASIN STORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING INTO EASTERN UTAH. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NW NEVADA WILL BECOME DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM IN WHICH IT ORIGINATED AND BECOME CUT-OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY. BESIDES AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LOW. A POLAR COLD FRONT ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER WILL SINK SOUTH WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN UT WILL MOVE INTO WRN CO THANKSGIVING DAY. SO THE MILD WEATHER OF TODAY WILL BE HISTORY COME THANKSGIVING DAY AS TEMPERATURES RUN 10-15 DEGREES COOLER. THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS STILL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE NATURE OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY.
214 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 SNOW AMOUNTS AND POSSIBILITY OF MORE FREEZING PRECIP THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DOWN OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST LOW LEVELS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW TEENS UP BY DOUGLAS AND RAWLINS AND LOW 20S IN THE PANHANDLE. ECMWF AND GFS BRING UPPER LOW INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING/NORTHEAST UTAH BY 18Z WITH QPF BAND CURRENTLY OVER RIVERTONS AREA SHIFTING EAST. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RETURN OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY. DID INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BASICALLY FROM CHEYENNE TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND POINTS SOUTH.
AT UPPER LEVELS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO NEAR THE MT/ND/SASK/MAN BORDER AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. WENT A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
1145 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 LOOKS LIKE ROCK AND HOLT ARE IN FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR THIS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINT SOUTH WILL BE INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SUFFICIENT LOWER BL SATURATION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SATURATION IS MAXIMIZED WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE -8C OR WARMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN UT INTO SRN CA AS SWRLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FROM THE SRN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER NEVADA.
1126 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015 FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEPOSITED PERHAPS UP TO 0. MORE SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE WFO OVER THE PAST FEW MINUTES. EXPECT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS. SO DID DECREASE THE LOWER BOUND OF SOME OF THE RANGES IN THE WARNING AS A RESULT. ROAD IMPACTS WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT OBSERVED FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE BECOME QUITE PREVALENT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING I-80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. THINK THESE AREAS WILL BEGIN TO ICE ACCUMULATION ON VARIOUS SURFACES SOON SO STARTED THE HIGHLIGHTS NOW FOR THESE THREE ZONES.
359 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW AS THE EASTERN RIDGE REFUSES TO GIVE GROUND.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOWER CIGS AND RAISE THEM BACK TO VFR. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS HELPING FEED EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GULF. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRESENT A VERY HUMID FEEL TO THE HOLIDAY AIR EVEN WHERE IT ISNT RAINING.
405 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY WITH UNUSUALLY MILD AIR.
410 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY.
BUT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING A MODERATING TEMP TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MINS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
114 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARED AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MILD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z KILX SOUNDING SHOWS TOP DOWN SATURATION IS UNDERWAY WITH MUCH OF A DRY COLUMN NOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT SATURATED WITH DRY AIR STILL REMAINING BELOW THE INVERSION IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. PCPN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST NORTHWEST CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING. POS TILTED TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH ACRS THE LAKES TO START THIS PD THU NIGHT-FRI.
/ISSUED 238 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ITS AXIS NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE RIDGE CENTER IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT ITS AXIS REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP YET AS THE RIDGE IS STILL VERY STRONG AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE IS STILL SHALLOW. BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
1240 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
1250 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW AS THE EASTERN RIDGE REFUSES TO GIVE GROUND.
Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms will spread into the BVO area by mid afternoon Thursday with storms moving into TUL/RVS by late afternoon/early evening ahead of strong cold front. /ISSUED 912 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front was located across central Iowa, across central Kansas, and into the northern Texas Panhandle.
VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO AND JUST OVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND POINT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOUTHWARD TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GENERALLY IN THE LOWEST MILE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS MPX CWA INDICATED A TOP-DOWN TYPE OF SATURATION SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE ONSET THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW GROWTH AREA /ICE CRYSTALS/ ARE NON-EXISTENT. NE TO NEAR KEAU HAS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING/AFTN BEFORE THE DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THERE IS ALSO A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WHERE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AS THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS GONE BUT SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS IN A WEAK WAA REGIME. ANY ICE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT FALLS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
1239 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
1247 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST.
424 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
202 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN B. AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IN THE GREAT BASIN AND WELL OFF THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COASTS OF WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ONSHORE ACROSS INTO WESTERN CANADA AND MAINTAIN THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE REGION.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. SINCE THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SLOWLY GAINING MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WITH THE WARMER MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN ASSOC/ AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH PUSHED THRU THE CWA EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA TO S-CNTRL KS WITH STOUT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN CWA WILL FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN EPISODE AS THE COLD AIR CUTS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER AIR MASS LAYER ALOFT. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EWD. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT AS BOTH THE ECM/GFS SUGGEST PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS IN RESPONSE TO MOIST UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER WRN CONUS. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN STILL EXPECTED AT KLNK AND KOMA 15Z-21Z FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW UNTIL ENDING AFTER 00Z.
326 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SLOW WARMING INTO SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY CLEARED MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH DRIER, COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE MID STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACING ALONG THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
453 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE TX/OK PNHDL REGION INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ATTM. AS THE TROUGH NEARS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVHD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO RAPIDLY SCOUR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE STUBBORN AT THE LFK TERMINAL TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE 17/12Z. GRADUALLY BECOMING NW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SW TX WITH THE POLAR AIR STARTING TO PUSH INTO ND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS STRONG INDICATIONS THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THIS STORM THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOW CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE NATURE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
512 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south across West Central Texas. /issued 333 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level short wave trough extended from the Texas Panhandle into the Big Bend Region. At the surface, a cold front will quickly dive south across the area this morning and early this afternoon.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND AFTER SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG WE SHOULD SEE A PLEASANT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS SETS UP OVER THE REGION HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING.
542 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY AS A LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND BROWNSVILLE THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL BE A FAST DEVELOPING AND MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS TIME TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/ UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. BUT IT HAS NOW MOISTENED UP THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THE AFFECTS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
605 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WONT BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 12Z. WITH A SLOWER DECLINE TOWARDS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. OPTED TO KEEP FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD EXIST WITH LAKE-ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF I-80 AND AND TERRAIN- ENHANCEMENT IN THE RIDGES. TAX ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
It deserves mention that a few pockets of freezing drizzle could occur across western Montana this evening. Sunday's highs temperatures will be at or above freezing, but mostly cloudy skies will hinder it feeling much warmer than usual.
621 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 Areas of freezing fog forming rapidly across SW KS this morning, as sky clears immediately after snowfall ends. Updated forecast to include areas of freezing fog through 9 AM. Highs should reach into the lower 40s. Lows tomorrow will be cooler and in the teens to lower 20s. Have gone with with cooler highs for Sunday as 850-hPa temperatures decrease to -10C to -12C.
A PLEASANT DAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FL WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SHIFTS RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. THEN S THEN SW FLOW INCREASES AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE RACES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH FL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING A SQUALL LINE RAPIDLY ACROSS MANY TERMINALS MAINLY 09Z-12Z. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE QUICKLY INTO LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES NORTH FL.
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
Would also expect snow to be dominant precip type much of the day in the higher elevations of southeast OK.
Highs should reach into the lower 40s. Lows tomorrow will be cooler and in the teens to lower 20s. Have gone with with cooler highs for Sunday as 850-hPa temperatures decrease to -10C to -12C.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY EXTENSIVE AND SLOWER TO ERODE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN BASIN.
521 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 -RA INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING AT KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD CHANGE OVER TO -SN OR -RASN IF TEMPERATURES FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SO HAVE INSERTED A -RASN THERE GIVEN TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY 1 DEGREE AWAY FROM FREEZING. WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THUS FAR. HOWEVER MOTORISTS ARE STILL URGED TO USE CAUTION AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASS COULD BECOME SLICK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIQUID AS TEMPS RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY /40S/ THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL RETURN SFC WINDS TO A SRLY FLOW. THE NEXT TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOOK EVEN MORE BENIGN THAN BEFORE WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES TO ACCOMPANY THEM.
946 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE WAKE. LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD. TEMPS ABV NORMAL TODAY W/ HIGHS IN THE M40S TO L50S XCPT M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS. CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD. TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE OF CONCERN SUNDAY. DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
N WINDS OF 10-15G25KTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /ISSUED 542 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/ A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY AS A LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND BROWNSVILLE THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL BE A FAST DEVELOPING AND MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS TIME TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
INITIALLY THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. NONE OF THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS WERE INDICATING THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BUT THINKING THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT (UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN MANITOBA) AND THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR (3-4 MB 3-HR PRESSURE CHANGE) WAS ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.
646 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING.