Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
518 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Upper level analysis shows a wave moving out of the northern plains, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, a trough/cold front stretches across ND into southeastern MT.
732 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week.
By tomorrow morning, the H5 ridge will get pushed to the west into northern Mexico, allowing weak troughing to approach east and south Texas from the north and from the south. While the troughing will increase instability in the region, the northerly flow is also expected to bring a punch of dry air in the 5000 to 10000 foot range, which will be stronger than today, again capping off the atmosphere for all but the healthiest but brief updrafts for convection.
711 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A cold front will cross the region early tonight.
/issued 329 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The upper level high pressure system will move off to the west today as the upper level trough located across the Midwest continues to move southeast. Low temperatures will likely fall into the lower 70s in most areas tonight. (Tuesday night through Monday) Stronger northwest flow aloft develops midweek as upper ridging weakens and moves west.
High pressure remains in control with mostly clear skies and light winds through the early morning. A weak cold front dropping through the area along with a narrow band of higher mid-level theta-e has been triggering showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over northern Lower Michigan, aided by the higher terrain. Max temperatures will again warm into the low-upper 80s with little change in thermal profiles and a little more cloud cover.
/12/ Prior discussion below: The period will start with ridging over the southwestern CONUS and northwest flow over the CWA. Dry air in place across the region following the cold frontal passage this past weekend will keep conditions quiet through the overnight and again on Tuesday. /TW/ Northwest flow around an upper ridge over the western US aloft combined with the influence of high pressure will help to keep dry conditions for Tuesday night.
925 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
1035 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week.
732 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mainly dry over the next few days. The majority of the region will remain under the influence of a fair weather high pressure system. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that heights aloft will begin to fall this period, as a large-scale upper trough digs into the northern Lakes region. Although the associated surface cold front will still be well upstream at this time across the Midwest, and slow moving at that, there appears to be enough instability and moisture advection into CNY/NEPA by afternoon for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
950 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure to the north will keep the weather dry and seasonable.
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure through Tuesday.
712 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 no aviation restrictinos are expected in the next 24 hours as high pressure will continue to provide mostly clear skies and light winds.
Strengthening ridge out west helps heights to fall across the Great Lakes region over the next couple days. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front currently over the Dakotas approaches reaching the W UP and WI Tuesday night. Flow becomes more SWerly, so with abundant sunshine and a warmer push of air, expect temperatures in nrn Lower at or above today's. PoPs increase across the UP late as the cold front approaches. High Impact Weather Potential: Several shower and thunderstorm chances through the midweek period with the passage of a cold front.
The coolest areas will likely be the low areas and river valleys of west TN and north MS. Only minor tweaks were made to hourly winds and dewpoints, but minimum temperatures were lowered a few degrees in the aforementioned "cooler" areas. Over the next 48 hours a 500 mb trough axis will generally locate across the region.
A developing northwest flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures to Montana over the next few days.
A comfortable evening is in store, but lows tonight will be warmer than the past few nights as low level winds become more southerly increasing low level moisture. 4 inches tomorrow which may be enough for an isolated shower or storm to pop up tomorrow afternoon, but will leave out pops for now due to the low potential.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 85 66 86 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 87 67 87 / 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 85 61 86 / 0 10 10 20.
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build south and east into the Mid Atlantic region through mid week. The surface-based stable dome extending through the Piedmont will bring very light NE or near calm air through tonight, and with current low dewpoints likely to recover minimally, good nocturnal cooling should allow for lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 50s in the typically cooler areas of the western Piedmont and northwest Sandhills. High clouds just ahead of this approaching trough will spread into the area, thickest over the western CWA, where skies will be fair with milky sunshine, while eastern sections will see greater insolation. Lows in the low-mid 60s.
Dry weather should return Friday under high pressure. Scattered showers should continue early this morning as a cold front completes it's passage. Partial clearing behind the front should be brief as as upper trough returns clouds, along with scattered rain and snow showers to the area as it crosses today. Surface temperatures should be too warm for accumulations, though colder temperatures in the WV/MD ridges could result in minor localized accumulations. Building high pressure should end the scattered precip this evening, and maintain dry and cool weather through Friday evening. After some partial clearing Thu night, clouds should increase Fri ahead of low pressure advancing out of the Plains. This low should drag a warm front across the region Friday night as it tracks to the Great Lakes region.
306 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Drizzle, with cold front crossing overnight. High pressure crosses Thursday night.
1107 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Mid-level ridging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the High Plains will gradually dampen while building east into the Great Plains tonight into Thursday. This pattern evolution will yield slightly warmer temperatures on Thursday, in addition to gusty south winds. Meanwhile, a surface cold front associated with a perturbation tracking across south-central Canada will advance south into the forecast area with low-level moisture increasing ahead of the boundary. The clouds will have an impact on afternoon highs on Friday, though the low-level warm advection will push readings into the mid 50s to potentially lower to mid 60s.
255 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A fast-moving upper level trough will cross North Carolina early this morning. High pressure will move in from the northwest today through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night.
105 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure tonight will give way to a weak cold front early Thursday.
215 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 No problems expected this period with ridging aloft and at the surface resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. In the upper levels there is ridging over the western U.
Fairly weak upper level flow will continue over our area tonight as a longwave trough axis moves across the Southeast. A broad area of high pressure at the surface will continue to build southeastward into our area. Still, with winds going calm under the influence of the high pressure system, widespread overnight lows in the 40s are expected. As the trough moves east of our area, northwesterly flow will prevail throughout this period across the Southeast. Models are in good agreement that a dissipating cold front will move southeastward into our area on Thursday, but the atmosphere will be too dry across our area to support any rain combined with the weak forcing. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout this period, with highs in the lower-mid 70s Thursday and Friday.
350 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Surface winds will veer to the southwest this morning, helping to erode the low stratus over the Rolling Plains by late morning.
Ceiling erosions expected 16/13Z-16/15Z as ridging influences sfc/aloft build into mid state region.
Weak cold front sliding through area this morning. The combination of drier air in the lower layers and subsidence from above are expected to erode stratocumulus layer by mid morning. Temperatures won't be cooling much behind this cold front--some locations will be warmer today than yesterday.
850 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 A weak cold front will bring clouds and some rain to San Luis Obispo County early Thursday, then spread into Santa Barbara County Thursday afternoon and into Ventura and Los Angeles Counties Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will bring clearing skies and above normal temperatures to the area this weekend.
355 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Weak cold front currently crossing the Midlands will move offshore this morning with high pressure building in this afternoon.
Canadian high pressure was building in from the northwest, which will keep the weather quiet through at least Thursday. South winds return on Thursday as high pressure advances off to the east within the fast zonal flow aloft. Highs Thursday will range from the middle 50s to the middle 60s, with the warmer readings in far southwest Missouri. A cold front will then approach the region Friday night, potentially triggering a few thunderstorms. However, with dew points in the lower 60s, model trends on Friday night's instability level bears watching.
1230 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A fast-moving upper level trough will cross North Carolina tonight through Thursday morning. High pressure will move in from the northwest Thursday through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night.
225 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A fast-moving upper level trough will cross North Carolina early this morning. High pressure will move in from the northwest today through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night.
343 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A weak cold front will push across the region this morning, followed by high pressure returning tonight into Friday.
449 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A cold front will move through the area this morning followed by high pressure later today and Friday.
357 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Upper pattern has a large ridge over Mexico with a trough getting ready to move ashore the WA/OR coast.
Warm air is lingering well over our Texas counties, but the weak cold front has some light N/NE wind from Mineola to Mount Pleasant to Texarkana and Arkadelphia. Rain chances still look better going than coming, but we have introduced light sprinkles West in the warmer regime after midnight with this update.
342 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 The main focus for today will be the windy and warmer conditions across the area. Southeast winds this morning will quickly increase shortly after daybreak in south central SD as the surface gradient increases and a mid level trough begins approaching from the west. Despite the clouds, expect a much warmer day across the board, with highs from near 40 in southwest MN where the clouds will persist longest, to the mid 50s in south central SD. With cross barrier flow developing in the Buffalo Ridge area, expect local enhancement of wind speeds throughout the evening and overnight hours. Temperatures in the Buffalo Ridge area will likely see periods of warming overnight, with the enhanced winds and persistent cloud coverage in that area.
1237 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A weak cold front will approach the forecast area from the west tonight.
431 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A mean layer ridge remains centered southwest of the Baja Peninsula, allowing lower heights to inpinge deep into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints just under 70. As the thermal trough kinks the lower levels, the persistent convergence zone should lift northward.
A weak cold front is currently draped from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-South to the Red River Valley this morning. The mid/upper cyclone driving this feature is now swirling into SE Ontario, providing little in the way of forcing this far south along the front (mid level height tendencies are currently, in fact, neutral to positive).
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM/ Temperatures have been up to 20 degrees cooler today in the wake of cold front overnight. An upper level trough will cross the Rockies into the plains Friday night, sending a cold front southward through the area Friday night.
1011 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 W-SW flow aloft expected to turn a little more southwesterly and increase in velocity Thursday ahead of approaching Pacific trough. Surface cold front expected to start pushing slowly southward across our CWA on Friday as upper trough starts moving closer towards our area.
337 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Cold and blustery this morning before winds diminish this afternoon and high pressure builds in.
1018 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary nearly stationary across the area, from far northeast WY to south central SD, with high pressure over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows trough over the Great Lakes region, with ridging over the Rockies, and a low off the Pacific NW coast. Skies are partly cloudy to mostly sunny across the area as some high clouds spill over the ridge.
1205 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Light rain will accompany a cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight. Scattered rain and snow showers are expected Thursday with an upper level trough of low pressure. A cold front should complete it's passage overnight with scattered showers and patchy drizzle expected. The 500 mb trough axis will cross on Thursday, with northwest flow/lake enhanced showers continuing. Any shower activity will end Thursday evening as the trough lifts out. Dry weather continues through Friday, but high clouds will start to increase again as a flat mid-level ridge crosses.
1123 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 A weak cold front continues to make slow and steady progress south this evening and appeared to be located near a Comanche- Sulphur Springs line during the past hour. Only slightly cooler air was occurring behind the front, so the main update to the forecast is to increase Thursday morning low temperatures for mainly the northern third of the area. /Issued 240 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/ As the cold front makes its way through the region, radar trends show a few transient light showers. A temperature gradient across the CWA will reflect the position of the frontal boundary, with southeast portions of the area keeping warmer temperatures while the rest of the region cools off.
Currently a long wave trough is offshore along 130W with strong southwest flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest. Short waves ejected by this trough are supporting surface fronts, and one of those fronts is now moving through the Medford CWA. The trough will move onshore Thursday night into Friday. Even then, one last short wave moving down the backside of the trough will support shower activity into Friday. Once that last wave moves through Friday morning, the air mass will stabilize and dry out as a long wave ridge edges onshore.
436 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure in the Midwest will track through the Ohio Valley tonight. This high will exit the area to the east on Friday with strong southerly winds bringing a warm shot of air to the region Friday and overnight.
331 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 This morning the surface analysis shows a weak and more diffuse cold front has generally moveed east of eastern Kentucky. The challenge that has been presented this morning is in relation to the lower stratus. Later today, the lower stratus will slowly scatter out in the north as we move toward the afternoon. Tonight, an area of high pressure will crest across the Ohio Valley as upper level ridge builds eastward. Given the potential for mostly clear skies this will lead to a decent shot of ridge/valley temperature splits. There could be some freezing fog similar to yesterday morning, but think similarly this will be more of the heavy frost scenario.
High pressure will slide across the area today, exiting to the east by early evening. The main challenge for this period will be with the behavior of the low clouds still streaming across the area early this morning. Subsidence with the ridge should rip expanding holes in the shallow stratus this morning, so sunshine for the afternoon. As the ridge slides east tonight, we quickly get into a return southerly flow and strong warm air advection. The low temp for tonight will likely be reached in the evening, with temps then holding nearly steady overnight.
Stronger mid-level winds also farther north with high wind threat looking lower for northern Carbon county so opted to drop that area from the high wind watch, but still some gusty winds expected during the day in that area. Main focus this period will be late Thursday night through most of Friday with a pretty good snowfall event expected over the higher mtns. An upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest Thursday evening and sweep east and across the area Friday evening. Should see in the neighborhood of a foot of snow there before the upper trough swings across early Friday evening bringing snow to an end. Other concern will be for a potential Bora event for a time late Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front sweep across the CWA.
/issued 752 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017/ Rain free conditions persisted across the western half of the Florida Peninsula today, as high pressure holds northwest of the area. High pressure north of the waters will shift east through the rest of the week, with north-northeast winds tonight shifting to more easterly by the weekend.
253 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Surface analysis early this morning shows initial cold from yesterday now across eastern Kentucky and eastern Tennessee while a secondary cold front with a more notable wind shift across central Illinois and Indiana. Overall, more sun is expected later this afternoon for all areas as high pressure drifts into the area.
317 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Cloud continue over the region this morning, with moisture trapped beneath a ridge axis producing a fairly consistent cloud cover, the exception being over Lake Superior, where downsloping in the northwest flow off the North Shore terrain ridge has torn a big hole in the cloud cover over the lake. We get warm and dry enough aloft to lose ice formation in the 500-700 mb layer for parts of the area, and with the lower layers remaining saturated, a mixture of drizzle/freezing drizzle becomes a threat for the southern portions of the forecast area, with mainly snow/rain elsewhere. Thankfully we are not looking at a full on freezing rain event and expect that this will be little more than a nuisance to travel on Friday.
337 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Post-frontal northerly flow lessened overnight and radiative cooling north of cirrus across northern Oklahoma has resulted in some sub-freezing temperatures. Model guidance has come more into agreement with timing of a fairly significant trough and associated cold front that will affect the area Friday. Still very warm in the northwest but a bit below the higher end of guidance, and cooler than most guidance for the southeast given the likelihood of persistent stratus for much of the day. The cold front will move through during the evening and clear the area overnight.
1237 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Drizzle, with cold front crossing overnight. High pressure crosses Thursday night.
Strongest flow aloft likely remaining mainly to the north during the afternoon, and then passing by Friday night with an upper trough passage, so we may avoid stronger wind from this system.
410 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure will move off the New England coast today. A cold front will move through the state overnight followed by high pressure for Thursday and Friday.
Upper level ridging extends from Bermuda northward to the Canadian Maritimes. Upper level troughing extends from Quebec southward along the eastern seaboard and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By Friday afternoon, the trough moves east and further deepens to an upper low and will be located over Nova Scotia and extends a trough between Bermuda and the east coast of the U. Upper ridging will move over the east coast by late Friday. On the surface, the dominant weather feature will be a high pressure center located near Iowa. This high will move southeast through the period producing mostly rain-free conditions and northeast winds.
This frontal position should keep the higher amounts of precipitation by this afternoon slightly further south than was expected the last few mornings, but this still brings several more inches of snow to the higher elevation across Idahos west central mountains. The main upper trough does begin to slide through Eastern Oregon late this afternoon and into the Idaho zones overnight. Snow showers will be on the decrease Friday afternoon as the trough finally slides eastward. In addition to the snow, wind will be on the increase into the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 30 mph and shift northwest Friday morning across most of the lower elevations of Eastern oregon and Southern Idaho.
This precipitation will last through the night in the higher terrain, while a rain shadow again forms over much of the valley. Tomorrow afternoon/evening a cold front will move through and bring snow levels back down. The cold front is expected to slowly move through on Thursday evening, enhancing precipitation, with snow levels falling to 3500-4000ft. Snow showers are expected to continue on Friday, mainly across the higher terrain as cooler air aloft moves over the area. The valleys of SE Oregon and the Snake Plain will generally dry out on Friday with much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions.
234 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 09z surface analysis had weak low pressure over southeast MT with a stationary boundary into southern SK and a warm front into central NE. Pressure falls increasing along boundary as warm air advection increases under upper ridge in place over the central US. Upper trough digging across southwest Canada into northwest US, which will be the main concern in the short term. Today, thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with sustained pressure falls across the region. Warm front will move slowly northeast today as lee trough pushes into eastern WY. It will drag weak trough into the CWA. Narrow band of moderate 850-700mb frontogenesis forecast by models behind cold front along with rapidly decreasing condensation pressure deficits.
1257 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Cooler air will continue to settle across the region tonight, along with cloudy skies and gusty northwest winds.
1131 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure moving across the area tonight will keep things clear/mostly clear and quiet overnight. Flow quickly turns southerly tomorrow and we should warm back up close to normal with highs in the low to mid 50s. The GFS deepens and cuts this low off between Hawaii and Alaska. But there is stronger ridging over the western half of the CONUS that blocks this cold air from surging south through the middle of the country. The high will pass over northern MO near dawn, making winds light or calm. Nonetheless, have kept the tempo though as the MO River temp will be about 20 deg warmer than the air temperature and winds could go calm. As the high continues to move east, winds will veer to the southeast by this afternoon.