Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
321 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Low pressure in the OK Panhandle was beginning to pull deeper moisture out of the Gulf with dewpoints in the 60s as far north as OK. Temperatures across the dvn cwa early this morning were in the lower to mid 30s. Today: Weak low pressure and positive-tilt trough will spread rain into our sw cwa this morning, then continuing to push northeast over all of the cwa during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s in the deeper snowpack area, to the lower 50s elsewhere. 25 inches, and as weak low pressure tracks across the cwa.
Have trended high temperatures down into the low to mid 50s which is closer to the cooler guidance.
Vigorous upper level trough and associated double impulse continues to advect NE across the FA this morning. Massive western NOAM ridge will dislodge arctic air into interior Canada, with a backdoor cold front pushing into the area by late week. Temps will warm Tues into the 40s and 50s most places, with a cooling trend into the weekend as nw flow impulses bias the cooler air south.
216 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast will lift out Monday as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Elsewhere, have added patchy fog to the overnight forecast across the Lower Susq Valley. Have undercut MOS min temperature guidance a bit, due to nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling, especially over the Lower Susq Valley, where winds are calm and there is a lingering snow cover. Temps are on track to bottom out in the low to mid 20s over most of the forecast area.
This should continue to bring in warmer and more moist air through the overnight hours. Dry and slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday.
139 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today. A cold front will pass through state tonight into Thursday. Orgnl Disc: Low pressure will approach from the west today as high pressure continues to move off to the east of the state. Precipitation is expected to spread across northern Maine from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as over-running takes place ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. The precipitation will end mid morning as the low moves away. H9 temps warm drg the day on Thu resulting in warmer maxes than Wed.
A back door surface front has brought a slightly cooler air mass into central Alabama this morning. Surface temperatures are running about 3-6 degrees cooler across east Alabama and 1-2 degrees cooler in the west. Afternoon temperatures will continue much above normal, but slightly cooler than yesterday. A strong low level ridge of drier air across south Georgia and south Alabama will keep rain free conditions across most of central Alabama today. Ridging aloft strengthens across the area on Thursday, further reducing any convective potential.
146 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
Only forcing will be terrain orographic lift, so best coverage over the higher elevations.
Based off this mornings upper air sounding, there is some moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but above this layer is a decent section of dry air. High temperatures will reach into the low 80s this afternoon, and partly cloudy skies will hold through the day and into the evening hours. /issued 614 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/ High pressure ridging westward across the Gulf Coast will provide a light to modest SE to S flow for the rest of the week. A cold front is expected to bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms SAT, followed by a modest offshore flow after the frontal passage.
High pressure off of Atlantic Canada will move further away from the coast tonight and Thursday. A lee-side trof will setup across the area tomorrow.
234 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. Overnight lows will be mild with cloud cover and continued WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms.
/issued 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/ A weak upper level trough, responsible for convection the last couple days, has shifted southeast into the northwest Gulf early this morning but there will remain a southwest to northeast oriented shear axis across our region today. Vigorous upper trough will move across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late tonight into Thursday with an associated cold front expected to stall across S OK into W AR late Thu into Thu Night trailing the upper level trough.
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Expecting thunderstorms to develop rapidly along the cold front around 5pm for Central Kansas, as it continues to move southward and cooler mid-level air approaches from the west to weaken the cap. Daytime highs will be cooler than Wednesday and closer to seasonal averages.
1139 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Latest observations indicate the cold front has passed Vernal, Utah over the last few hours but hasn't reached as far south as the Grand Valley. Some showers will likely continue over the northern mountains and Flat Tops through the early afternoon hours thanks to favorable flow with maybe an inch or two of snow possible for the highest elevations. A quick transitory ridge will move over the region late tonight but by Thursday morning it will have shifted to the east thanks to the next weather system. As the next trough approaches, winds are expected to increase yet again though the strongest winds looks to be from the Uncompahgre Plateua southward. Shower activity increases Thursday night as the negatively tilted trough moves overhead and drives a cold front southeastward across the forecast area.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide clear skies this evening with breezy winds diminishing rather quickly after 6pm. Increasingly moist S/SW flow aloft sets up over the Northern Rockies and MT on Thursday as the trough digs into he Great Basin while an inverted trough at the surface noses north into western MT with a Pacific cold front moving into western MT late Thursday afternoon, reaching areas along the continental divide by 6pm. Cloud-cover increases through the day Thursday with showers developing over SW MT Thursday afternoon and tracking NNE in SSW flow aloft ahead of the approaching cold front.
222 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Upper low currently over western South Dakota with some showers wrapping around the system and over parts of the CWA this afternoon.
The cold front anchored along the coast this morning is moving inland.
428 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A windy, warm and humid day across the region with warm air advection ramping up ahead of a cold front moving across western Kansas.
609 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. Atmosphere ahead of trough is not overly unstable, either at the surface or aloft, but there may be enough shear to allow for, already developed convection, to be maintained through the evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence in stronger winds is low, but hail is a possibility as the freezing level is reachable and lies within the unstable layer aloft. Overnight lows will be mild with cloud cover and continued WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms.
Temperatures appear to be on track this morning to take us into the low 80s this afternoon west of the Cumberland Plateau and into the mid to upper 70s along the Plateau.
Upper low continues to move away from the area with precipitation expected to end over eastern zones early this evening. Brief ridging will bring a dry day to the area Thursday with temperatures in the 60s.
A low pressure system will bring some showers tonight and Thursday.
Some decent 850 mb moisture was in place over Nebraska into Iowa and dewpoints in the warm sector at Noon were in the lower 60s. Dry and bit cooler conditions expected heading into this weekend. MVFR ceilings are expected to move in behind the cold front for tonight, then lift late tonight or Thursday morning.
Otherwise, high pressure should generally produce mostly dry conditions overnight. A moist cold front will sweep across the northern Rockies Thursday producing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty west winds will also accompany the cold front in the afternoon over western Montana. The snow level will lower to 5500 to 6000 feet in the late afternoon and evening with the higher mountain passes seeing some wet snow, but probably not much accumulation on the highway (only slushy snow possibly sticking to road for a while during the evening over Lost Trail, Bannock, Homestake, and McDonald).
346 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Low pressure just off the NC/SC coast will dissipate tonight. A trof of low pressure will develop along the coastal plain Thursday afternoon.
After today, models show good agreement on sharpening the upper ridge axis over Central TX from the west and effectively removing rain chances from almost all areas.
Deep layer ridging will persist through tonight. Low temperatures will continue to remain almost 10 degrees above normal with lows in the low to mid 60s.
129 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Low pressure developing across Iowa today will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms along a frontal boundary draped across the area this afternoon. As this system lifts northeast across the upper Great Lakes Thursday, the accompanying cold front will move across our area, likely causing thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front in Kansas this afternoon and evening. Thursday evening and night, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to form as a trough approaches the southern Plains.
329 PM PDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Shower chances into Thursday then dry and warmer for the weekend. Trough is currently along the coast with a healthy band of showers and isolated thunderstorms from Crescent City to Eureka.
Zonal flow will continue across the region through Thursday as the upper ridge stays suppressed to our south over northern Mexico and a storm system moves across the northern half of the United States. The 20Z temperatures across southeast Arizona were running 0-3 degrees cooler than yesterday, with readings generally in the mid to upper 80s at this time.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, as strong thermal ridge pushes into SW KS ahead of approaching cold front. SW winds will be gusty for a few hours this morning, but winds will weaken during the afternoon hours as surface cyclone deepens over the western CWA and pressure gradient weakens. Cold front sweeps quickly through SW KS this evening, with gusty NE winds. Otherwise, breezy NE winds will usher in a cooler, drier and more stable airmass tonight with lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to the mid 50s along the Oklahoma border. A spectacular spring day in the post-frontal airmass, with sunshine, cooler highs near 70, and a diminishing NE breeze.
They will first develop over the higher terrain and then spread northeast onto the adjacent plains late in the afternoon and through the evening. Could see an inch or so of accumulation over the higher mountains with more tomorrow night.
355 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Streamer bands from the Bahamas in combination with a weak low level trough moving across the state has brought widely scattered showers across the region today. So far much of this activity has been along the east coast, activity is shifting westwards along with the trough moves.
We will still have some low chance POPs for this evening along the frontal boundary that is expected to shift well north of our area as low pressure, currently over northern Kansas moves into Iowa later this evening. Most of the high resolution convective allowing models suggest what is left of the showers and storms over west central Illinois will track east with the cold front during the morning with redevelopment expected to take place along and especially east of the I-55 corridor Thursday afternoon. Mixed Layer Capes in the 1500-1800 J/KG range tomorrow afternoon just ahead of the cold front with 0-6km shear values of 40-50 kts so the potential still exists for isolated strong to severe storms in east central through southeast Illinois through late afternoon/early evening.
12Z NAM appears to concentrate a little too much of the thunderstorms tonight well north, along the 850 mb warm front. HRRR is similar, though it does have a little more showers/thunderstorms near the warm front. The GFS has more showers/thunderstorms after the 850 mb warm front lifts north this evening, which is preferred. Low tornado threat near the warm front just after midnight and early morning, mainly southwest of Madison. A wind threat will exist with any morning thunderstorms with the cold front. Initially expect a stratocumulus shied to move in behind the cold front.
341 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 One short wave trough was leaving the east this afternoon with a second stronger short wave trough moving in from the west. Otherwise, the low clouds will be slow to move out into Thursday across the region.
237 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Under partly cloudy skies and east winds of 10 to 20 mph, temperatures are mainly in the lower 80s across the Florida Keys. Surface wise, an extensive ridge axis is draped along the entire eastern United States coast and the Florida peninsula. An expansive and sprawling ridge aligned along the eastern United States coast will strengthen over the next day or so, before settling southward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
223 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Upper ridging remains in place today with sunny skies and high temperatures expected to reach 90 most places and near/exceeding 100 along the Rio Grande. The upper ridge will flatten to the south Thursday as a weak upper wave swings through the north Central Plains. A cold front will make a run for the area Thursday and it could make it to near Interstate 20 before stalling around mid day. Latest MET guidance is much cooler across the northern half of the CWA while the MAV has only cooled high temps by a couple of degrees. The front looks to be fairly shallow so think cool surface temps would mix out fairly quickly through the afternoon so will lean toward the warmer MAV for now.
458 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weak low pressure will track across Quebec tonight pulling a cold front across the region. The front will stall across southern New England on Thursday as a weak area of high pressure builds by to our north.
Clusters of showers do look to take longer to clear portions of Okanogan county in the vicinity of the Pasayten Wilderness and as such the highest amounts of rainfall, about one half inch, is expected in that general area tonight.
251 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weak low pressure will track across Quebec tonight pulling a cold front across the region. The front will stall across southern New England on Thursday as a weak area of high pressure builds by to our north.
419 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Upper low currently over western South Dakota with some showers wrapping around the system and over parts of the CWA this afternoon.
234 PM MST Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, keeping the storm track to our north.
200 PM PDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland across California tonight, though the coastal low clouds and fog will be less extensive.
And a cold front will move southward near or a little after daybreak on Thursday. Into the overnight hours, LLWS will be a concern as the low level jet kicks up while surface winds decouple. Into the overnight hours, a cold front will dive south with gusty winds in its wake.
135 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. Thursday an area of low pressure will track to the Upper Great lakes.
High pressure ridge aloft should traverse the region today for continued sunny and dry conditions with afternoon temperatures near seasonal averages. High pressure ridge at the surface and aloft shifts east across the region through this evening for mainly clear skies with increasing high clouds late tonight.
318 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
A weak cold front will make a run at the NM terminals around sunrise Thursday.
Thursday will be a little warmer than today with highs reaching into mid and upper 80s with a few isolated 90s in the Rio Grande Plains.
250 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Low pressure developing across Iowa today will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms along a frontal boundary draped across the area into this evening As this system lifts northeast across the upper Great Lakes Thursday, the accompanying cold front will move across our area, likely causing thunderstorms.
1106 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far northeast CO, with frontal boundary extending across the Central Plains. Inverted trough stretches north from the low across eastern WY. Temps are mostly in the 40s, with some 30s across the higher elevations of the western Black Hills. The highest elevations of the BH, mainly above 6000 ft, could still see some snow and light accumulations this morning, though the system is a bit warmer and temperatures are struggling to drop there. Lows will mostly be in the 30s, with some light snow possible across the higher BH if pcpn makes it there late at night.
Issued by National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 324 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 The chance of precipitation will diminish as we push into the evening hours, and the region of high pressure continues to build in from the east.
extensive increasing cloud cover with the approach of the weather system will give the region overnight lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s.
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL 414 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 High pressure over the southeast states will weaken and shift east, to be replaced by low pressure over the weekend.
324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Currently, WV and Vis sat imagery shows a mid-latitude cyclone moving into the Great Lakes region with associated cold front trailing to the southwest through the Ozarks into OK and the Southern Plains region. Northwest to zonal flow resides over the Central Plains with another Pacific trough over the Pac Northwest into the Northern Rockies region. Rest of today will remain dry and cooler with weak low level CAA still working through the region. Highs should remain on the cooler side with cloud cover overspreading the area in advance of the previously mentioned North Pac trough diving south into the Southern Rockies before deepening as it pulls back into the southern Central Plains. The 850 mb fronbtal boundary sets up across southern Kansas with the highest qpf expected near and south of east central Kansas.
An H5 ridge resides across North Central Mexico, with a lobe extending over much of Texas. High pressure lies over the Gulf. Weak, transient low pressure over the Southern High Plains is contributing slightly to the synoptic scale pressure field. High pressure will displace Plains lower pressure Friday night as a front pushes into Texas. Another round of low clouds will develop Friday night, with light winds and low temperatures nudging into the lower 70s.
High pressure will dominate the area through tomorrow resulting in a fairly benign weather regime. Clear skies will allow temperatures to dip back into the lower 60s, and conditions remain favorable for another round of patchy dense fog to develop after midnight tonight. With ample subsidence in place, temperatures will remain warmer than average during the day. Highs will easily climb back into the lower 80s near the coast and the middle to upper 80s further inland tomorrow afternoon.
1206 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Main concerns in the short term revolve around the digging trough currently seen just off the NW US coast early this morning. As this trough moves closer late this afternoon, upper diffluence along with good PVA and height falls aloft will induce shower development over the higher terrain of SE WY. The upper trough will become negatively tilted as it moves overhead tonight and eventually form a closed circulation of sorts over northeast CO before it tracks quickly eastward into KS by Friday afternoon. As this happens SE WY and western NE will be in an area of favorable upslope SE to E flow in the low levels along with a mid level deformation zone.
However, only a brief respite in precip chances is expected across the area, before the next upper trof approaches from the western CONUS tonight. Moisture transport in the isentropic lift regime ahead of the developing upper low will get the rainy and occasionally stormy pattern going on Friday with temperatures well below climo. While this will also lend to locally heavy rainfall in southeast Kansas, the GFS also shows an impressive area of frontogenesis and 850-700 mb moisture convergence a bit further north closer the mid/upper level low, from central into east central Kansas Friday afternoon into the early evening.
The upper level trough moving east across Utah will generate numerous showers along with isolated thunderstorms tonight. An upper level ridge trailing the trough will build into the region this weekend, bringing a warming trend to the entire state.
357 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms into tonight, followed by cooler temperatures and scattered showers for the weekend. In advance of tonight's cold front, a boundary moving across the forecast area brought a line of thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. There should be a lull in precipitation through the late afternoon and early evening hours before another round of showers and thunderstorms begins with a cold front. Even with rain moving through many locations today, temperatures in eastern Ohio have rebounded into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s, which would help to provide necessary instability for thunderstorms.
At the surface, high pressure was sliding south along the high plains with another ridge axis building south from the Dakotas. Upslope flow and increasing lift as the upstream upper trough moves into the intermountain west are expected to generate rain showers tonight primarily along the high plains.
216 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 more widespread storms late tonight as a cold front crosses the region.
1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 88D mosaic this morning showing thunderstorm activity still on going along a cold front in eastern KS. cool through the weekend with highs generally in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.
257 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 243 PM CDT Latest radar imagery depicting shower and thunderstorm development still ongoing across northwest Indiana, ahead of departing cold front. Cold advection on the back side of this system is ushering in cooler temps, with 50s being observed over northwest Illinois.
With continued CAA tonight and clouds clearing across nrn portions of the CWA, have trended aob the cooler MOS while trending slightly warmer further south.
Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon into the lower 80s with a few spots peaking near the mid 80s. The aforementioned frontal boundary or perhaps a prefrontal trough/outflow may help spark convection across the area on Friday. Again, given the surface features the highest pops will be positioned north. May see another lull in the festivities Friday evening before the the cold front finally makes its formal approach toward the region.