Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
154 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Scattered showers today as a weak cold front slowly passes overhead. Weak cold front stumbling down into the forecast area today will be accompanied by scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder in our extreme eastern zones. The front will be nudged southward through the period as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region, with clearing skies possible across portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia by Monday afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper 60s/low 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s for the higher ridgetops amid showers and increasing cloud coverage. Monday temperatures will be slashed by a only a degree or two in response to the weak cold front hovering overhead.
Winds will become light and variable overnight as high pressure moves eastward.
A cool low layer will be over run by warmer temperatures aloft favoring fog formation. There may be a small risk of some patching freezing drizzle late tonight across the James river valley but have not included this yet.
349 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 A trough is positioned over the West Coast while a ridge sits off to the east. Highlight: Gradual warm up Further of a warm up is anticipated on Monday as high temperatures climb to the lower 70s for the eastern half of Kansas and closer to 80 for the western half. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a dryline will work into central Kansas on Monday afternoon which still has the low chance for a thunderstorm or two;however, the low level convergence still looks like it might not have enough gusto. The trough described in the Synopsis section is progged to have two pieces.
1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Another quiet day is expected today with daytime temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday. A mild night is expected with lows in the lower 40s.
Light, northerly winds across the area today will transition to southerly winds tomorrow as a warm front lifts through the area. /10/ The cloud deck continues to clear out this morning as upper ridging builds over the area. Dry weather with continued above normal temperatures are then expected for the remainder of the near term over the entire forecast area as the subtropical ridge re-intensifies over the Lower MS Valley region.
1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Weak ridging aloft accompanied by southerly boundary layer flow will facilitate warmer than normal temperatures through the start of the week. Highs today will reach the low to mid 50s in most locations, with increasing clouds tonight holding lows above freezing. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Monday as 925-850mb temps moderate to between +8C and +10C.
320 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 A warmup will get underway tomorrow as high pressure moves off the coast.
A few breaks in the low clouds have developed across north Texas and southern Oklahoma, while the west edge of the stratus is eroding across the panhandles right now.
336 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Short Term (Tonight through Monday night): The mid-level trough pushing through the region tonight will continue to support the potential for convection. Temperatures along the Palm Beaches will be a few degrees cooler but some other portions of Southwest Florida may end up reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Sfc analysis late this afternoon through present has indicated a trough over the Nrn Bahamas to extreme S FL with a high pressure ridge nosing down the SE coast to around NE FL. High pressure will push off the southeast coast of U.
The near-term period will be dry with light and variable winds as ridging aloft becomes established, before a more active pattern begins unfolding over the next several days.
Whatever cooling there is behind tonight's wave will be offset by more sun and the warmer air starting to come back, so highs Monday should be similar to today's.
The large scale pattern at 500 mb features a trough extending from southwest Canada to off the west coast of the US. Water vapor imagery showed a closed low located near 40N 128W, off the coast of northern CA. Surface analysis at 3 pm showed high pressure from the Great Lakes region down into east TX and low pressure back over the western High Plains.
639 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 High pressure shifting through the Great Lakes will bring dry conditions and light winds tonight. A warm front lifting northeast across the area on Monday will bring warmer temperatures, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily to the northern and western parts of the state.
/issued 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Much warmer day across West Central Texas compared to 24 hours ago. Seeing some erosion in the low level cloud deck on visible satellite and this has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 60s in some spots. (Monday night through Sunday) Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the area this week, in advance of a large upper low dropping south along the California coast.
702 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Temperatures will climb in the days ahead, as high pressure off the coast, circulates warm air and increasing humidity into the region.
901 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 A weak and slow moving cold front will drop south across the region tonight with weak high pressure building in Monday.
954 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Temperatures are running mild at this hour, with readings in the low to mid 60s areawide. Latest surface analysis places a 1020mb high pressure center over south central Illinois with a 1000mb low just to the lee side of the Rockies. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 50s by Monday night. Tonight, high pressure will remain over the area. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s. An upper ridge will remain over the area on Monday.
The HRRR simulated composite reflectivity is the most aggressive in generating the highest reflectivities compared to the remaining high resolution guidance; however there is agreement that some precipitation will develop south central and into the James River Valley now through 06z Monday. Stratus and fog as mentioned from the previous discussion continues to have support from the high resolution guidance and BUFKIT soundings. A cool low layer will be over run by warmer temperatures aloft favoring fog formation. There may be a small risk of some patching freezing drizzle late tonight across the James river valley but have not included this yet.
547 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Dry conditions return Monday under high pressure.
Although lapse rates at the lower to mid level increase fairly quickly for a few hours, currently don't see much other support through the middle layers, or CAPE to speak of, so kept any mentions of thunder out of the forecast for now. Highs will get a few degrees above normal, pushing into the lower to upper 50s.
With a weak surface pressure gradient associated with the Lake Michigan high, the low cloudiness will slowly erode rather than quickly move out. Temperatures will bottom out from 45 to 50 tonight, and in the lower 70s for highs Monday.
527 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Closed western CONUS upper trough is supporting downstream upper level ridging over the Northern Plains with SW mean flow.
950 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Temperatures will climb in the days ahead, as high pressure off the coast, circulates warm air and increasing humidity into the region.
Afternoon highs look on par with the forecast, where the western Nebraska Panhandle will reach the upper 60s to possible low 70s in the North Platte River Valley and north of the Pine Ridge.
Much of the higher resolution data seems to agree with a stable air and moisture near the surface with dry and warm air advection aloft.
/Issued 237 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ Finally some breaks in the low clouds and some sunshine this afternoon.
Temps ranged from the mid 50s under mostly clear conditions to the lower 60s underneath the cloud cover. dewpoints in the 50s are forecast to hold overnight which will help to keep overnight temps several degrees warmer compared to last night.
656 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 High pressure will slowly move east of the region tonight. VFR conditions are expected tonight into Monday morning, as high pressure slowly moves east of the region. Chances for showers increase Monday afternoon, as the warm front moves north toward the area.
High pressure over Lower Michigan will gradually move into the eastern Great Lakes tonight into Monday.
The previously stalled frontal boundary is expected to lift north as a warm front, with SE winds and gradually improving conditions through Monday afternoon. /issued 253 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): The main story for today has been the much cooler temperatures across Deep South Texas, in addition to occasional drizzle throughout the day. This is a result of a stalled front just off the lower Texas coast, which moved through yesterday. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible with instability increasing with warmer southerly flow returning. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the low to mid 80s Monday afternoon for most inland locations. Humidity will also return quickly with dew points rising into the lower 70s to start the upcoming week.
851 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 High pressure shifting through the Great Lakes will bring dry conditions and light winds tonight. A warm front lifting northeast across the area on Monday will bring warmer temperatures, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily to the northern and western parts of the state.
The resultant cooler air from the rain showers on the north end of the boundary is helping to slowly push it south.
657 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 A trough is positioned over the West Coast while a ridge sits off to the east. Highlight: Gradual warm up Further of a warm up is anticipated on Monday as high temperatures climb to the lower 70s for the eastern half of Kansas and closer to 80 for the western half. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a dryline will work into central Kansas on Monday afternoon which still has the low chance for a thunderstorm or two;however, the low level convergence still looks like it might not have enough gusto. The trough described in the Synopsis section is progged to have two pieces.
1122 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 A trough is positioned over the West Coast while a ridge sits off to the east. Highlight: Gradual warm up Further of a warm up is anticipated on Monday as high temperatures climb to the lower 70s for the eastern half of Kansas and closer to 80 for the western half. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a dryline will work into central Kansas on Monday afternoon which still has the low chance for a thunderstorm or two;however, the low level convergence still looks like it might not have enough gusto. The trough described in the Synopsis section is progged to have two pieces.
The first feature of significance for the period is a low pressure that will be located across the Great Lakes.
An upper level ridge will translate to the east Monday while an upper low deepens on the West Coast.
245 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A warm front lifting northeast into the area today, will bring scattered showers west of I-55 this morning, then a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, over the northern half of the state.
Another tranquil evening in store with clear skies, light winds, and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. The weak frontal boundary to the SE will double back to the north as a warm front during the day Mon. The warm front will usher some slightly warmer temps into the area, as highs Mon afternoon climb to around 80F. Rain chances will increase during the day Tue, as weak upper disturbances traverse ewd along the nrn fringe of a lingering weak upper trough axis over the wrn/cntrl Gulf region. Unseasonably warm temps also persist into early Wed, with lows mainly in the lower 60s. As the trough continues to deepen out west, weak ridging somewhat amplifies along the Gulf Coast, turning flow more westerly, cutting off the direct tap of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for the Tennessee Valley.
Noticeably warmer today as southerly flow influenced by LLJ continues to advect warmer air into the Central Plains amidst broad ridging aloft. A weak disturbance aloft aided by LLJ forcing will round the ridge axis from northeast CO into western IA today, advecting in an area of stratus across much of northwest IA, southwest MN, and parts of northeast NE and southeast SD.
310 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A very mild morning across the region as high pressure over the Great Lakes region ridges down and into Texas.
300 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Warmer temperatures are expected today even with the abundant cloud cover that is anticipated.
1135 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 High pressure shifting through the Great Lakes will bring dry conditions and light winds tonight. A warm front lifting northeast across the area on Monday will bring warmer temperatures, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily to the northern and western parts of the state.
An area of low pressure and associated dry line will slide eastward across western Kansas today into tonight. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with lows tonight ranging from the low 40s across west central Kansas to mid 50s across south central Kansas.
/issued 954 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ Temperatures are running mild at this hour, with readings in the low to mid 60s areawide. Latest surface analysis places a 1020mb high pressure center over south central Illinois with a 1000mb low just to the lee side of the Rockies. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 50s by Monday night. Tonight, high pressure will remain over the area. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s. An upper ridge will remain over the area on Monday.
An upper low has cut off from the main jet stream and is slowly moving southeast along the West Coast.
1233 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Temperatures will climb in the days ahead, as high pressure off the coast, circulates warm air and increasing humidity into the region.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 60 74 61 81 / 10 40 60 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 57 74 61 79 / 10 30 60 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 77 56 75 60 79 / 10 30 50 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 52 72 57 74 / 10 30 50 30 40.
1033 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Closed western CONUS upper trough is supporting downstream upper level ridging over the Northern Plains with SW mean flow.
Forecast Summary: Mild temperatures for the first couple of days this week will turn cooler as a shift in upper flow pattern drives a cold front through the Plains. Cooler airmass remains in place into the weekend, when off-and-on precipitation chances enter the forecast.
For today, look for increased humidity and warmer temperatures. Highs are looking to warm into the low to mid 70s.
Surface analysis this morning reveals a stationary front draped across the Tennessee Valley, while very weak and broad high pressure remained in place across the Great Lakes region. The stationary front across the Tennessee Valley is forecast to lift northward as a warm front today and push into central IL/IN/OH by early evening. Tonight, a weak wave will move into the upper Ohio Valley and generate showers and storms along and near the warm front.
1153 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Dry conditions return Monday under high pressure.
Clouds will decrease today as drier air continues to move in from the northwest as mid level ridge axis resides just upstream from the forecast area. Highs today will reach the mid 80s with lows falling into the low 60s.
Some development will continue across s-central Idaho into early Monday morning as energy ejects from a closed low along the CA coast.
Upper level ridging will maintain its hold over the Gulf of Mexico through at least Monday night. Closer to the surface, high pressure will build over the northern Gulf coast and also over the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through Monday afternoon. This high pressure will then begin to break down and move eastward by Monday evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s over the inland areas to the lower 60s along the coast. High temperatures tomorrow will then be in the lower to mid 80s inland and in the upper 70s along the coast. Warmer overnight lows are expected Monday night due to increased moisture from southerly flow, with temperatures only dropping into the lower 60s inland and into the mid 60s along the coast.
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Dry conditions return Monday under high pressure.
Onshore flow today as high pressure builds over the area. Lighter winds for much of the week as high pressure remains in control.
932 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 The low pressure system moving south along the California coast will bring windy and mild conditions to much of the area through early this week. Cool and wet conditions will settle over central and southern Utah as the low pressure system moves east across the desert southwest midweek.
355 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 After a refreshing change of pace on Sunday, an upper level ridge is beginning to build back in over the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast Summary: Mild temperatures for the first couple of days this week will turn cooler as a shift in upper flow pattern drives a cold front through the Plains. Cooler airmass remains in place into the weekend, when off-and-on precipitation chances enter the forecast. Again have maintained a small chance for showers within this regime, and kept cloud cover more stubborn in our eastern CWA which will limit warming to the low to mid 60s there. We should see highs several degrees warmer than this afternoon, with some lower 80s likely in our south.
We will start all terminals at MVFR expecting the higher spots to fill in. South Central Texas continues to be under southwesterly upper level flow this morning with a low along the west coast and a ridge to the east. The southerly to southeasterly low level flow will bring warmer air to the region.
/Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ Warmer temperatures are expected today even with the abundant cloud cover that is anticipated.
430 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Scattered showers and a few storms can be expected today, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL as a southwesterly low level jet brings low level temperature and moisture advection into this area, and as a weak warm front lifts northward through the region. Warmer high temperatures can also be expected today as the surface wind becomes southerly. Even warmer temperatures can be expected Tuesday with southwest winds south of the warm front. GKS Scattered convection is possible Tuesday evening, mainly across southwest IL along a weak cold front which will be moving southeastward through the region.
518 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over western SD, with frontal boundary stretching across far northern WY to northeast SD. Mild conditions will continue early this week, with low pressure and frontal boundary slowly shifting east-northeast today as a warm front. As low pressure move east of the region, it will drag a weak cold front slowly south across the area on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move across the Northern Plains Tuesday night, dropping temps to near or slightly below seasonal values for mid to late week.
The highest precipitation chances are during the 06Z-18Z Tuesday time frame as the low level jet strengthens. We're still looking at a Tuesday morning frontal passage, but given deep mixing and little change in the low level thermal profiles until later, we should be able to reach highs in the 60s for most areas.
527 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Dry, mostly sunny and mild weather is in store for today as an area of high pressure drifts by just to the north of Pennsylvania.
615 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Stratus did not stay as low as expected with ceilings having improved to the low end of MVFR criteria.
Any lingering showers will end later this morning as the trough axis moves away. Subsidence and a stronger westerly flow behind the trough will support increasing westerly winds mixing down to the surface this afternoon.
Effectively a warm front will lift into the southern Mississippi and allow the over- running of moisture to work northward into the area. Highs will be a touch cooler with the added cloud cover, so look for upper 70s to low 80s.
Satellite imagery shows the deep closed low off the coast of NorCal early this morning with a couple of strong vorts rotating in its midst - one to the southwest of the Bay Area and a second to the west of Cape Mendocino.
Surface analysis this morning reveals a stationary front draped across the Tennessee Valley, while very weak and broad high pressure remained in place across the Great Lakes region. The stationary front across the Tennessee Valley is forecast to lift northward as a warm front today and push into central IL/IN/OH by early evening. Tonight, a weak wave will move into the upper Ohio Valley and generate showers and storms along and near the warm front. The period on Tuesday starts warm and moist as we are in the warm sector south of a warm front that stretches through the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio. Dew points will be in the low to middle 60s as our daytime temperatures rise into the mid to upper 70s, nearly 10 degrees above average.
337 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A closed mid-level low pressure system will move slowly southward along the West Coast early this week reaching the waters off southern California late Tuesday. Dry weather is expected over all but the eastern Uinta Mountains which will fall just under the eastern edge of a plume of subtropical moisture carried northeastward ahead of the eastern Pacific low pressure system. A deep layer of southwest flow will remain over the region as the closed low spins off the southern California coast.
Low-level clouds are currently advecting northward into southeastern South Dakota on higher-moisture southerly winds ahead of an area of low pressure, and expected to continue into eastern South Dakota. These, along with additional low clouds north of the warm front across northern South Dakota into North Dakota will likely limit full daytime heating potential. The cold frontal passage Monday night will have little impact on temperatures Tuesday, as highs are expected to rebound into the 60s once again. Drier air and weak high pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.
524 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A closed mid-level low pressure system will move slowly southward along the West Coast early this week reaching the waters off southern California late Tuesday. Dry weather is expected over all but the eastern Uinta Mountains which will fall just under the eastern edge of a plume of subtropical moisture carried northeastward ahead of the eastern Pacific low pressure system. A deep layer of southwest flow will remain over the region as the closed low spins off the southern California coast.
Light southeast winds, broad isentropic upglide, and moisture advection are underway across the forecast area this morning in the wake of a warm front. Blended in some warmer guidance (MAV/HRRR) for temps. Downsloping winds and a dryline should aid in further drying the lower levels, so trended toward Cons/MAV/HRRR for dew points. Despite the low humidity extending farther east, winds don't appear as strong so held off an expansion. The H85 thermal ridge progresses east across the Sandhills, while near surface winds remain 5-10 mph. Went with warmer and drier guidance to keep highs in the 70s, RH below 20 percent, and winds per pattern recognition of upper ridge breakdown and downsloping winds.
The upper level trough will continue its eastward slide into the early morning hours. The upper level ridge offshore will continue to build on Monday, providing for mostly sunny skies through the week. Rain possible by the weekend as a system slides over the ridge and into the area.
For today, look for increased humidity and warmer temperatures. Highs are looking to warm into the low to mid 70s. As a strong upper level high pressure ridge remains over the region, temperatures on Tuesday are expected to warm into the lower 80s.