Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge will continue to deliver dry conditions with mostly clear skies through Friday.
Currently - The combination of a messy ridge across the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic and lower pressure in the central Caribbean Sea is maintaining light to gentle northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. The lower to mid level ridge is rather weak and the steering flow is gentle out of the northeast. Short Term Update - The weak ridging to our north will remain in control of our weather overnight. A weak ridge across the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters.
The second pocket may linger primarily east of the Prairie Coteau through the mid-morning Friday, and thus keep temperatures warmer than they would have otherwise been. The high moves off to the east Friday night, with light southwest winds developing and weak warm air advection. Still looking at another chilly night with many areas near and below freezing once again.
729 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures through Friday, before a dry cold frontal passage Friday night leads to cooler temperatures over the weekend. SW gradient winds increase slightly Friday ahead of cold front, bolstering highs into the low 80s after tonioght's seasonable lows.
646 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (Tonight through Friday night) A weak surface inverted trough has contributed to isolated convection over the coastal waters today, and briefly over the southern Coastal Bend. Concur with deterministic NWP models that upper forcing in advance an quasi- stationary upper trough/low over northwestern Mexico/southwestern CONUS, will contribute to isolated/scattered convection, mainly over the coastal waters tonight, then over the CWA Friday.
A quiet dry ridge dominated regime will allow for a mostly clear night and some decent radiational cooling. While should not be as cold of lows as this morning, values look to get generally 4-8 deg below climo with many areas in the low to mid 50s for tomorrow morning.
The good heating under mostly sunny skies allowed high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s today, and will allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s Friday (well above seasonal norms).
/KP/EC/ With the trough remaining stationary over the eastern half of the CONUS, dry northwest flow aloft will maintain a dry airmass over the forecast area. This dry autumn weather pattern will continue on Friday with slightly warmer morning temperatures compared to yesterday. /CRJ/ The weekend will see a nice push of cool, fall air as a decent cold front makes it ways through the area. This is tied to a short wave trough that will push across the Ohio Valley on Friday and ultimately carve out a larger scale trough over the eastern CONUS through the weekend. For mid/lat week, support is increasing for a more substantial trough getting carved out across the eastern CONUS. Finally, a strong cold front looks to push through and likely to push in the coldest air of the fall season.
951 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Summary: Noticeably cooler and breezy, but a slow warm up on the way while keeping fairly dry. An early season arctic air mass is in the process of settling over the region today bringing gusty winds and much cooler temperatures.
754 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (Through Friday) Fair and dry weather will continue through Friday as a broad trough remains in place aloft and high pressure holds at the surface.
1257 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Shower chances return today with much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated to scattered light showers and sprinkles may accompany a cold front the will cross the region today.
To the north of the current rain activity, skies have cleared in northeast Nebraska where temperatures are expected to begin dropping nearly or just below freezing; especially near the South Dakota border. With it being early in the transition season, a Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning combo is in place for the forecasted near or just below freezing areas this morning (primarily from Albion to Onawa and points north). By tonight, the combination of very low wind speeds, clear skies, and a stronger nighttime inversion (at least according to the RAP and similar CAM forecast soundings) will all work towards an even colder night with temperatures at or below freezing area-wide.
339 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Key messages: - The first freezing conditions of the season are likely for areas north of the Missouri River. Discussion: Cold front has moved through the area overnight and CAA is allowing temperatures to drop off into the 40s this morning. This will allow temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 30s. The first freezing conditions of the season are expected across northern Missouri with frost expected along the Missouri River and points south. High pressure will remain in control over the area on Saturday. Weak mixing will temperatures below normal with highs in the low to mid 60. High pressure will shift south of the area Saturday night with westerly flow developing. This will be enough to keep temperatures above freezing in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
111 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Through Friday) Fair and dry weather will continue through Friday as a broad trough remains in place aloft and high pressure holds at the surface. (Friday night through Saturday night) Main weather highlight through the beginning of the weekend will be a cold front that passes through the region. As outlined in the fire weather section below, despite slightly cooler temperatures and a slim improvement in relative humidities, the increased winds will keep fire weather concerns elevated across the area. High temperatures will be a little cooler, especially across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle where increasing upper level clouds and a slightly cooler airmass will keep highs in the low to mid 80s.
144 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A cold front will move through the area overnight into Friday morning. This frontal passage will bring gusty winds out of the north and cooler temperatures for the weekend. High pressure moves into the region on Saturday. Clouds are increasing ahead of a cold front stretching from lower Michigan to Illinois.
1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (The rest of tonight) A cold front currently moving into central Kansas this evening will continue to surge south tonight and is forecast to be near the I-44 corridor across northeast Oklahoma by 12z Friday morning.
The split flow pattern over the western CONUS has transitioned to a Rex Block along the West Coast with a persistent trough over the east. A cold front is moving through the region at this time. This front will bring more dry and cooler air into the region late tonight and Friday.
(Today through Saturday) Main part of the forecast is the cold front moving towards the area during the day today and into the forecast area this evening and into the overnight hours.
Highs today will be much cooler than the last few days, ranging from the lower to middle 40s across the north to around 50 across east- central Wisconsin. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s across the north, with lows around 30 across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore. High pressure will build to our south on Saturday, which will turn surface winds west-southwest and again become gusty. The turning of the winds to a more southerly direction will allow warmer air to advect into the region, which will allow temperatures to rebound a bit.
1055 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Much cooler and drier air continues to stream into the region behind this morning's cold front. The forcing for light precipitation will decrease overnight, but some flurries can't be ruled out tomorrow morning when temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler as cold high pressure centers over the region, with highs generally in the upper 40s. A widespread freeze looks likely Friday night with mostly clear skies and light winds thanks to the high pressure overhead. Lows around 30 are likely everywhere except the core of the Twin Cities metro where the urban heat island effect will keep temperatures several degrees warmer.
356 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Active weather remains on track for today as a short wave trough moves through the region. Boundary layer temperatures remain warm across the region and while a few locations in the central Sandhills may hit the freezing mark, precipitation will be coming to an end by then keeping the rain/snow potential limited and/or non-existent. Expect much of the region to see frost Friday night as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Therefore, due to the high certainty of frost/freeze occurring, have issued headlines for all of north central and western Nebraska.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s, with some mid to upper 50s over the east, as they will be getting off to a chillier start (it was 27 degrees at Baker as of this writing). Highs on Saturday will be around 10 degrees warmer with abundant sunshine.
300 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Cold front to change the airmass to cooler this weekend. A warm day ahead, with southwest to west winds preceding a cold front that should bring high temperatures at or above normal, with 70s for most, and some 60s over the mountains. The front is coming in with limited moisture but could see a few showers over the Alleghanys, and sprinkles as far east as the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke.
Current observation platforms are recording temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with dew points in the lower 70s. Our sensible weather continues to be dominated by a high pressure centered in the Southeast U. The increase in moisture trend will continue today and tonight in association to eastward track of the aforementioned high pressure.
1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Summary: Noticeably cooler and breezy, but a slow warm up on the way while keeping fairly dry. An early season arctic air mass is in the process of settling over the region today bringing gusty winds and much cooler temperatures.
104 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Tonight through Friday night) A weak surface inverted trough has contributed to isolated convection over the coastal waters today, and briefly over the southern Coastal Bend. Concur with deterministic NWP models that upper forcing in advance an quasi- stationary upper trough/low over northwestern Mexico/southwestern CONUS, will contribute to isolated/scattered convection, mainly over the coastal waters tonight, then over the CWA Friday.
Near the surface, high pressure is dropping southward out of southern Canada into the Dakotas. Towards the surface, a cold front is expected to move through the area tonight increasing northeast winds and bringing in much colder air to western Kansas. Below normal temperatures continue through Saturday as high pressure continues to build into the area with upslope flow across western Kansas keeping mostly cloudy skies.
332 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing or near temperatures for much of the area this morning and again Saturday morning. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler (upper 40s) than yesterday as the cold high pressure directly overhead. As is often the case, the core of the Twin Cities Metro is the only place that may not see freezing temps thanks to the urban heat island.
A dry cold front moves across the area Friday night into Saturday morning, ushering in drier and cooler weather. Temperatures Friday top out in the middle 80's for most locations, with Saturdays highs much cooler in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower to middle 80's near the coast. Friday night may be a bit warmer owing to increased mid to upper level cloud cover with lows dipping into the middle to upper 50's inland and lower 60's nearer the coast.
The second area of focus will be for portions of southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border as the cold front pushing southward through the region early this morning moves farther south into the Texas Panhandle by this afternoon. With a modest amount of increased moisture associated with a weak upper low located in the Desert Southwest, shower development will be possible within an axis of increased H7 frontogenetic forcing in conjunction with a series of H5 vort maxima kicking east out of the Rockies of northern New Mexico. More fall-like temperatures are to be expected today as much cooler air filters into western Kansas in wake of the recent frontal passage, dropping H85 temperatures well below 10C for much of the area.
Temperatures will climb into the middle 80s ahead of a dry cold front.
154 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Much colder air settles in behind a cold front with highs only in the 50s today and Saturday. On the back side, cooler air will be able to filter into the area as evidenced by 850 mb temps dropping from the upper single digits to around 10C to either side of 0C Friday morning.
(Today) Cold front currently located near a Shamrock, Bixby line, extending into far northwest Arkansas. Significantly cooler conditions are expected behind the front today with high temperatures only in the lower to mid 70s across NE OK/NW AR. Although temperatures will be cooler, at least a limited fire danger threat will continue behind the front with gusty north winds at 15 to 20 mph. Gusty north winds will also likely begin to increase across aforementioned area by mid to late afternoon with the stronger push of cooler air.
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (This evening through Saturday) A cold front has pushed thru the state today with little fanfare, albeit with a wind shift and some cumulus clouds that developed in its wake. Cooler air will start to move into the state in earnest tomorrow, with highs across the north making it only into the lower 70's.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated the cold front stretched from northeast Lower MI to southeast WI. High pressure is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains on Friday with drier air and subsidence building into WI.
Moderate confidence that diurnal cumulus or stratocumulus will dissipate within a few hours after sunset inland as ridging and subsidence work to dry out that layer.
207 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Aviation/Marine - A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon As of mid afternoon a band of showers had developed ahead of the cold front. Weak instability exists ahead of the cold front with SPC's meso page showing around 250-500 J/kg of SB CAPE. Coldest temperatures will end up around Mt Pleasant and Big Rapids with values potentially dropping into the low to mid 30's. Several models are showing the low level winds backing overnight with clouds moving back in off of Lake MI.
With high pressure remaining quasi-stationary at the surface combined with broad upper level troughing forecast to be re-enforced across the eastern conus today through tonight, fair weather is expected to continue. Temperatures overnight will still be cool, but are forecast to be slightly warmer than previous nights with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s areawide.
(Today and tonight) At the upper levels, a broad trough will continue to dig in across the eastern US, while a closed upper low remains in place over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, the weak frontal boundary that stalled across the area yesterday is fizzling out, while another cold front is moving southward into Oklahoma at this time.
Discussion: Tranquil weather is expected for the short term period, with a weak and dry cold front pushing through the area tomorrow afternoon.
Highs today will be in the low 50s and low 60s behind the front with some low 70s possible across the Kansas/Oklahoma border.
252 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Much colder air settles in behind a cold front with highs only in the 50s today and Saturday. Potent sw wrapping up across se ON in tandem with deepening cyclonic flow across the lakes and burgeoning low level thermal troughing already inducing a vigorous lake response off the ern WI shoreline. Low level flow rapidly weakens/backs tonight before as thermal trough collapses thus expect lake based showers will decay quickly through this evening close to the lake.
256 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Northerly winds were found across the area this morning as high pressure moved into the area. Temperatures ranged from the upper 40s in the south to the low 40s in the north. High pressure expected today. Discussion: High pressure will continue to affect the area today. As far as the freeze goes, looks like most of the area will see temps at or below freezing tonight. Regardless, with the track of the high looks like tonight is our first real chance to see widespread freezing temperatures. Urban areas may stay at or just above freezing. Cannot guarantee that urban areas wont see freezing temps.
306 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 High pressure at 07z over Devils Lake. High pressure to our southeast tonight so looks to be not as cool except for west central MN where it will be clear and winds lightest and they will likely drop colder early Saturday morning than they will be this morning with lows by Sat AM around 32 Fergus Falls/Wadena areas. Look for warmer temps with highs into the 60s most areas along with a west wind 10 to 15 mph.
1058 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (This evening through Friday) Shower activity across southwest Oklahoma continues to linger across portions of western Oklahoma, though much of it is falling as sprinkles or virga with lingering dry air in the low levels. Our much advertised cold front continues to push southward towards our area, with the leading edge of the cooler airmass currently extending east-west to the north of the I-70 corridor, aided by a ~1040 mb high centered across southern Canada.
(Today and tonight) Key Message: Cold front will move through the area today, leading to lower temperatures and dew points. The incoming system is a weak trough moving through the Great Lakes region over the weekend, and dragging along a weak front through the eastern United States. Cooler air from the northwest will begin to flow into the region behind the front and we should return to mostly sunny skies by Saturday.
Last evening's cold front has shifted well south of the area, currently residing across northern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Areas along the Kansas/Nebraska border are expected to be at or below freezing for an hour or two, so a Freeze Warning has been issued for Washington, Marshall, Nemaha, and Brown Counties.
A broad area of low pressure is centered over southern Arizona this afternoon, with an east to northeasterly flow over northern Arizona. With a strong, blocking high building over the northwest, the southern Arizona low is forecast to make very little movement over the coming days.
(Today through Saturday Night ) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through the short term. Forecast high temperatures are expected to be in the lower 70s to mid 80 across the state for your Friday before dropping into the mid 60s to mid 70s for your Saturday.
While no longer retrograding, the upper low will remain to our south and west over Sonora/Baja California.
147 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Cold front to change the airmass to cooler this weekend. A warm day ahead, with southwest to west winds preceding a cold front that should bring high temperatures at or above normal, with 70s for most, and some 60s over the mountains. The front is coming in with limited moisture but could see a few showers over the Alleghanys, and sprinkles as far east as the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke.
119 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures through Friday, before a dry cold frontal passage Friday night leads to cooler temperatures over the weekend. SW gradient winds increase slightly Friday ahead of cold front, bolstering highs into the low 80s after tonioght's seasonable lows. A cold front will start to make its way through the area Friday night, moving offshore by Saturday night. Highs behind the front on Saturday will be much lower, falling into the low to mid 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Behind the front from the short term, high pressure will start to build in again from the northwest.
1205 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (This evening through Friday) Expanding upper low to our west continues its retrograde back toward Arizona and NW Old Mexico with assistance from a broadening trough across the northern Plains states and Great Lakes.
This produced dewpoints in the low to mid 40s, resulting in widespread RH values hovering in the low to mid 20s across central Georgia.
A trough will continue to dig through the Midwest at the start of this short-term, which will push a pretty powerful cold front south with it. Highs today will range in the upper-80s to low-90s, with lows tonight ranging in the low-50s to low-60s. While this is a very beefy cold front expected to move through into the weekend, the airmass situated over the region is bone dry. /44/ (Saturday Night through Friday) Post FROPA continues through the weekend as the ridge axis settles in and works to the south and east.
A dry cold front to our north and west will continue to progress southward through the area this morning, prompting a wind shift to the north and reinforcing this drier air mass. High pressure at the surface will control the weather in wake of this boundary as it moves southward into the central/southern Alabama.
A ridge builds over the the area this weekend which will continue to warm temperatures with dry weather and mostly clear skies.
355 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Shower chances return today with much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated to scattered light showers and sprinkles may accompany a cold front the will cross the region today.
245 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Stout upper ridge remained parked over the western CONUS with a deep upper trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest.
A dry cold front moves across the area tonight into Saturday morning, ushering in drier and cooler weather. Temperatures today top out in the middle 80's for most locations, with Saturday's highs much cooler in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower to middle 80's near the coast. Tonight may be a bit warmer owing to increased mid to upper level cloud cover with lows dipping into the middle to upper 50's inland and lower 60's nearer the coast.
Higher temperatures being felt in Zapata and Starr counties while the lower highs will be near the coast. Coastal locations will be warmer due to marine influences.
KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing or near temperatures for much of the area this morning and again Saturday morning. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler (upper 40s) than yesterday as the cold high pressure directly overhead. As is often the case, the core of the Twin Cities Metro is the only place that may not see freezing temps thanks to the urban heat island.
727 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Shower chances return today with much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated to scattered light showers and sprinkles may accompany a cold front the will cross the region today.
632 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Much colder air settles in behind a cold front with highs only in the 50s today and Saturday. Potent sw wrapping up across se ON in tandem with deepening cyclonic flow across the lakes and burgeoning low level thermal troughing already inducing a vigorous lake response off the ern WI shoreline. Low level flow rapidly weakens/backs tonight before as thermal trough collapses thus expect lake based showers will decay quickly through this evening close to the lake.
High pressure remains over Devils Lake region. Cloudy areas overnight saw temps stay above freezing. High pressure at 07z over Devils Lake. High pressure to our southeast tonight so looks to be not as cool except for west central MN where it will be clear and winds lightest and they will likely drop colder early Saturday morning than they will be this morning with lows by Sat AM around 32 Fergus Falls/Wadena areas. Look for warmer temps with highs into the 60s most areas along with a west wind 10 to 15 mph.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies through the weekend.