Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A wind shift to the north is expected tonight as a cold front drops through the region. Behind the upper air disturbance, a cold front will plunge south overnight and will likely produce some strong gusty winds lasting into Saturday morning. Winds should subside Saturday afternoon and highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.
923 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Temperatures across the region have warmed above freezing this morning, so have let the frost advisory expire. Updated at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The CWA sits in front of an advancing upper trough with its axis positioned through eastern Iowa. At the surface, high pressure is centered over central Indiana with a larger area running parallel to the axis of the upper ridge. Areas between the Lake Cumberland area through the Bluegrass will see some broken cloud cover from the low pressure system moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 A weakening cold front will largely fall apart as it approaches the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
At the surface, high pressure stretches from Hudson Bay southward into the southeastern CONUS with low pressure developing across eastern CO into western KS/NE this morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 remains centered over the western Gulf with a general northeastward motion. Aloft, amplified mid/upper-level ridging stretches from the northern Plains to AR with upstream troughing across the Intermountain West. A compact upper low is noted invof the Upper TX Coast. The base of upper troughing to our west will cross the Rockies late tonight and encourage gradual surface pressure falls across the southern Plains. Given that, remained conservative with PoP Saturday afternoon/evening as a weakening cold front pushes eastward across OK before the upper wave weakens and ejects northeast.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the midwest, with trough over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Some light rain ahead of the trough over eastern Montana continues to gradually slide to the east. Some light rain affiliated with the aforementioned upper trough will push through the area today, but any rainfall amounts will be quite limited. quiet weather is expected as trough passes through and rain slides to the east. Quiet weather is expected during the day on Saturday as aforementioned trough wraps into an upper low passing well to the north, though a second trough swinging around this low will start pushing into the northern plains overnight, with precipitation chances and cloud cover on the increase through the night.
Flat high pressure ridging over the state will bring dry conditions and daytime high temperatures a few to several degrees below normal. High pressure begins rebuilding over the west coast as early as Saturday evening bringing an end to any precipitation threat.
The boundary layer will continue to remain relatively dry, so the low chance PoPs advertised in the zone forecast may be slightly overdone.
351 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 A cold front recently pushed the region, and expect cooler temperatures today and increasing west winds in a cold air advection post-frontal regime.
The timing of the cold front could be a bit tricky, but generally, short term models are bringing in the cold front late enough to allow temperatures to soar by early afternoon, placing most of the central and southern CWA into the near 80 to mid 80s range, as plenty of sunshine is anticipated. Up toward Ord, temperatures will likely be cooler with a high closer to around 70.
To the west, an upper trough is moving thru the Rockies and approaching the Four Corners. That said, we'll drop the Delaware Mnts from the watch, and upgrade the higher elevations of the Guadalupes to a warning for a marginal wind event. As the trough pushes thru West Texas, the NAM/GFS/HRRR develop -SHRA over the Stockton Plateau/SE Permian Basin this afternoon/evening. A cold front will settle in behind the trough, w/fropa at KMAF ~ 12Z Saturday. Despite this, temps Saturday afternoon should top out well-above normal, although cooler than today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 48 65 54 / 0 0 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 44 66 53 / 0 0 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 69 45 67 51 / 0 0 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 38 67 50 / 0 0 60 80.
1029 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will prevail today.
High pressure is keeping us dry and mostly sunny this morning as temperatures climb into the 50s. Guidance is going a touch warmer on high temps today, so the forecast was nudged up by a degree in spots.
I did increase rain chances there this morning as the rain will likely become a little more steady as the low-levels moisten up and can't rule out a few hundredths of an inch. The main event begins later today and continues through tonight as potential tropical cyclone sixteen moves quickly northeast into the northeast Gulf today and tonight, then into the Florida panhandle and southeastern states late tonight or early Saturday morning. High surf is likely for much of the region beginning tonight as large waves generated by potential tropical cyclone sixteen move toward the coast.
625 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures expected today with high pressure in control.
Temperatures will be cooler and clouds will be on the increase.
1052 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures expected today with high pressure in control.
The result will be warmer temperatures beginning today and continued sunny skies. A deep low pressure system brewing over the Gulf of Mexico will come ashore along the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, and will begin spreading clouds and moisture into Middle Tennessee Saturday and Saturday evening. Will therefore include chance POP's for those periods, with the best chance occurring across southeast Middle Tennessee, which is closest to the low track.
448 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with warm front stretching southeast into eastern portions of SD and NE and a cold front extending southwest into WY. The cold front is currently from far northwest SD to northeast WY. A flat ridge will bring dry conditions on Saturday with highs in the 50s and lower 60s.
1014 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Gusty winds will subside later today as high pressure moves into the region.
545 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Aviation Section Updated An upper level trof will move across Montana today.
Today and Tonight: A mid-level ridge axis extends from western Ontario toward the Mississippi River valley and will continue to push east as short- wave troughing moves across the northern Rockies and toward the Great Basin. At the surface, a front/lee trough extending across the High Plains will continue to move east toward the region today and tonight.
A warm frontal stratiform rain sheild bring light rain ahead of the front this evening ahead of the cold front that moves in Saturday morning. The increasing 700 mb flow will make the precipitation more geographically influenced with the highest amounts on the coastal ranges and in the Cascades.
714 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The wind will subside later today as high pressure moves in.
As upper low near coast moves east, these clouds will eventually move out of the region with mostly vfr skc thru 19/12z fcst cycle. /Today through Saturday/ Upper low slowly movg east along Gulf coast spilling a thick layer of upper and some mid lvl clouds nwd across much of the area, will cross the MS River Delta this aftn and temps will rise a few additional degrees where skies clear off, although aftn highs should rise over 70 degrees areawide. Base of upper trough to the north will brush far northern sections of the region late tonight with a slgt chance of elevated convection. A lgt wind likely induced further to the south with passage of this trough as well as some variable cloud cover.
High temperatures will run cooler than normal through the weekend.
Behind the upper air disturbance, a cold front will plunge south overnight and will likely produce some strong gusty winds lasting into Saturday morning. Winds should subside Saturday afternoon and highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.
Updated at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The CWA sits in front of an advancing upper trough with its axis positioned through eastern Iowa. At the surface, high pressure is centered over central Indiana with a larger area running parallel to the axis of the upper ridge. Areas between the Lake Cumberland area through the Bluegrass will see some broken cloud cover from the low pressure system moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 A weakening cold front will largely fall apart as it approaches the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
406 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 An upper level trof will move across Montana today.
428 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The trend towards cooler, wetter weather continues today as a rather active weather pattern will set up across the area into the weekend bringing gusty winds, rain and heavy snow to the region. In addition to the gusty winds, temps will be much cooler this afternoon with highs in the 40s and 50s expected.
159 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 An upper trough is crossing the Rockies, pushing some clouds into the western Dakotas.
The potential tropical cyclone in the gulf will track northeast during the short term period.
Highs Saturday will range from the low 60s over central MO to around 70 along the Arkansas border and the eastern Ozarks.
Lee trough across the Texas Panhandle is evident on latest surface analysis, with cold front extending from northwest Kansas through east central Colorado. Cold front will move through Tulsa by mid day Saturday and across northwest Arkansas by mid to late afternoon.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 continues to strengthen as it spins across the Central Gulf of Mexico this morning and our eastern most zones are still experiencing some high level moisture in association with this circulation and another mid level trough axis located across the Southern La Coast. At the surface, a ridge axis remains in place across the heart of our region, centered across the Ohio Valley extending south and west into far S TX attm.
246 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Upper trof across the Rockies this afternoon with some lightning noted across Colorado and northern New Mexico. While influx of surface moisture will remain limited ahead of the upper trof and associated weak cold front, modest elevated moisture transport will result in weak instability later this evening/overnight as these features move eastward across the forecast area.
230 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Warmer weekend.
434 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure should provide dry conditions through Saturday.
128 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Temperatures across the region have warmed above freezing this morning, so have let the frost advisory expire. Updated at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The CWA sits in front of an advancing upper trough with its axis positioned through eastern Iowa. At the surface, high pressure is centered over central Indiana with a larger area running parallel to the axis of the upper ridge. Areas between the Lake Cumberland area through the Bluegrass will see some broken cloud cover from the low pressure system moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 A weakening cold front will largely fall apart as it approaches the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
249 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 A cold front is currently moving southeast across the Tri-State area. An upper level ridge will move across the central U.
A cold front enters the area from the northwest this evening and overnight into Saturday morning. This front will bring chances of storms to most of the area, with the highest confidence in central Oklahoma.
The upper level trough that moved across the area this morning ended up being more active precipitation wise than initially expected. The trough axis is now east of the area taking the lift with it and allowing drier and cooler air to move in from the west.
149 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure drifting through the state will bring VFR conditions through this TAF period with only FEW to SCT high clouds present through the afternoon. The variable wind direction will turn more southeasterly by tonight as high pressure slides to the east throughout the remainder of the day. Aside from a few remnant cloud fragments hanging on and/or redeveloping within the nocturnal inversion skies are mostly clear within the subsidence corridor downstream of the building ridge. Wider hemispheric view reveals that the encroaching ridge is one of multiple synoptic scale undulations occuring as a result of the zonal jet extension taking place along 60N in the north Pacific. Initial downstream wave is currently carving out lower heights over the western US, but is driving little more than high clouds into the High Plains early this morning.
343 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will build into the region tonight with light winds and clear skies. This will lead to the frost and freezing temperatures across much of Central PA.
This will disrupt the western Atlantic ridge, leaving a weak ridge axis over the Keys area. The ridge will begin to build back into place over south Florida in the wake of Nestor, with east to southeast flow returning in earnest.
Slight ridging will build into the area tonight before the next front moves into Southeastern Montana Saturday evening. Showers will move into the mountains before moving onto the lower elevations. Rain is expected in the lower elevations with snow above 6000 ft. Low temps will drop into the low to mid 30s. Carrothers A trough will bring precipitation into the area, as a cold front will move in during the evening Saturday. As temperatures aloft cool the lower elevations will still be able to transition over a wintery mix or fully over to snow.
223 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 (Tonight and Saturday) Increasing low level southerly flow is resulting in moisture advection across West Central Texas so far today, with dewpoints having gone from the low 40s this morning to the low 50s this afternoon. Meanwhile, we're seeing warmer conditions today compared to yesterday at this time, with temperatures at 1 pm in the upper 70s/low 80s. A weak cold front will move through the forecast area early Saturday morning, which will result in a slightly cooler day Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
212 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Upper level trough currently moving through the rockies with winds approaching high wind criteria in the Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will continue to increase through the early evening as the jet and trough approach the region. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains through 19/03z. The winds should diminish later this evening in the mountains as the upper trough passes by. A cold front will switch winds around to the northwest later tonight with cooler but still above normal temperatures are expected areawide for Saturday with clear skies.
251 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 A trough digging out of the Four Corners has been evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon as it moves eastward. As this trough swings past us tonight, it will bring the first of two cold fronts to the region. Breezy northerly winds will taper off during the morning hours with highs being around 10 degrees cooler than Friday.
229 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure provides dry weather through Saturday.
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The area of low pressure set up across the James River Valley early this afternoon will be along the ND/SD/MN border by 00Z Saturday. Saturday will be marked by a ridge of high pressure, few if any clouds in the sky, and temperatures only a couple of degrees cooler than today.
257 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will build into the region tonight with light winds and clear skies. This will lead to the frost and freezing temperatures across much of Central PA.
312 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure across the Great Basin will build through the cntl Rockies tonight and Saturday.
Breezy westerly winds will continue through the evening hours as a weak cold front pushes across the Northern Rockies.
S/SW winds this afternoon and evening will shift to the N/NW with the passage of a cold front tonight. Behind the upper air disturbance, a cold front will plunge south overnight and will likely produce some strong gusty winds lasting into Saturday morning. Winds should subside Saturday afternoon and highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.
Rockies this afternoon will move through the Great Plains tonight and Saturday morning in tandem with a surface cold front.
Temperatures have been near the warmer HRRR/RAP solutions in this dry pattern and see no reason to deviate from these for today's forecast. As the upper level trough approaches this evening, winds will back to the south-southeast ahead of the dry line, increasing low level convergence. A cold front will surge southward this evening and other storms will likely form along the front. Cooler readings can be expected Saturday in the wake of the front, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s.
Some guidance suggests additional chances for rain showers exists near the international border behind the trough tonight into Saturday. The typical northeast track is expected with this low, with the GFS and ECMWF exhibiting some differences with the path. Trough will lessen and shift winds out of the west, which is already making its way through DVL as of noon. Trough will bring the chance of some sprinkles/virga this evening. Guidance suggests mostly clear skies develop behind the trough Saturday morning.
252 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Gradient winds of 15 to 25 mph are common this afternoon, with the highest winds found in our western counties, where some gusts to 30 mph are possible this afternoon.
353 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Skies are mostly clear across most of the region with high pressure being the main influence to the area. Temperatures are currently in the low 60s to low 70s. Highs will be in the low-to- mid 70s.
Winds across Keys waters range from moderate to the east to fresh to the west due to Tropical Storm Nestor approaching the Florida Panhandle and a ridge across Cuba.
Some guidance suggests additional chances for rain showers exists near the international border behind the trough tonight into Saturday. The typical northeast track is expected with this low, with the GFS and ECMWF exhibiting some differences with the path.
/issued 353 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ Skies are mostly clear across most of the region with high pressure being the main influence to the area. Temperatures are currently in the low 60s to low 70s. Highs will be in the low-to- mid 70s.
833 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure should provide dry conditions through Saturday.
641 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Upper trof across the Rockies this afternoon with some lightning noted across Colorado and northern New Mexico. While influx of surface moisture will remain limited ahead of the upper trof and associated weak cold front, modest elevated moisture transport will result in weak instability later this evening/overnight as these features move eastward across the forecast area.
Cold front up in Panhandle will move south through all terminals between 10-13z. /issued 212 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ Upper level trough currently moving through the rockies with winds approaching high wind criteria in the Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will continue to increase through the early evening as the jet and trough approach the region. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains through 19/03z. The winds should diminish later this evening in the mountains as the upper trough passes by. A cold front will switch winds around to the northwest later tonight with cooler but still above normal temperatures are expected areawide for Saturday with clear skies.
/issued 251 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ A trough digging out of the Four Corners has been evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon as it moves eastward. As this trough swings past us tonight, it will bring the first of two cold fronts to the region. Breezy northerly winds will taper off during the morning hours with highs being around 10 degrees cooler than Friday.
Northeast winds will lighten and become vrbl or calm overnight as high pres ridges southward on the backside of TS Nestor over the N Cntl Gulf. /issued 431 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ Current upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows trough over the western US and ridge over the Midwestern to northeastern US with drier air from the high plains to southwestern gulf. This weekend will see warmer temperatures return to the forecast around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than todays temperatures.
The highest chances will likely be near CSM and OKC/OUN. Otherwise, expect a wind shift from the north with a cold front late tonight thru Sat AM for all the terminals.
High pressure over the area will retreat to the south and east tomorrow as a slug of moisture from TS 16 Nestor moves northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Cold front will move across the area late tonight causing the winds to shift from SW/W to N/NW after passage. /issued 251 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ A trough digging out of the Four Corners has been evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon as it moves eastward. As this trough swings past us tonight, it will bring the first of two cold fronts to the region. Breezy northerly winds will taper off during the morning hours with highs being around 10 degrees cooler than Friday.
The following cold air advection along with a developing trough has increased westerly winds this afternoon with peak wind speeds expected this evening and into tonight. Clouds will briefly clear overnight, but with the arrival of a developing trough on Saturday, clouds will increase throughout the day, bringing cooler temperatures and raising the possibility for precipitation for areas generally south of the Missouri River.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 59 54 76 / 10 70 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 59 51 74 / 0 70 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 43 61 51 73 / 0 50 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 60 48 73 / 0 60 80 30.
To its east, a warm front stretching over Fort Pierce earlier tonight will lift slowly north overnight.
Gradient winds of 15 to 25 mph are common this afternoon, with the highest winds found in our western counties, where some gusts to 30 mph are possible this afternoon.
754 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will build into the region tonight with light winds and clear skies.
Otherwise, winds will be variable or south/southwest around 10 knots or less, with a wind shift to the north/northwest tomorrow behind a cold front. /issued 223 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ (Tonight and Saturday) Increasing low level southerly flow is resulting in moisture advection across West Central Texas so far today, with dewpoints having gone from the low 40s this morning to the low 50s this afternoon. Meanwhile, we're seeing warmer conditions today compared to yesterday at this time, with temperatures at 1 pm in the upper 70s/low 80s. A weak cold front will move through the forecast area early Saturday morning, which will result in a slightly cooler day Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
624 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will bring a mostly dry weekend to central and southeast Illinois. A weakening cold front will move into the region Saturday afternoon but only scattered showers are expected from I-55 northwestward. Models continue to slow the forward progress of this system as it tracks into a prevailing upper ridge axis, resulting in a delayed precip onset and less QPF. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower 60s far northwest around Galesburg to the lower 70s along/south of I-70.
535 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 An upper trough is crossing the Rockies, pushing some clouds into the western Dakotas.