Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 72 90 74 91 / 60 30 40 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 70 91 72 89 / 30 10 30 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 91 72 89 / 30 10 30 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 90 68 87 / 10 10 10 10 50.
253 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Message of the Day: Hot weather to continue through the week with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper ridge that has led to the region warming up and drying out over the last few days will continue to expand eastward through the week. There is a weak mid-level disturbance, within the upper ridge, that is situated over southern Texas.
/Issued 932 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020/ High pressure over the region again tonight, with a slight increase in dew points noted compared to 24 hours ago. This supports overnight lows slightly warmer than last night as forecast. A broad upper level ridge anchored over the area will lead to mostly clear skies and calm winds throughout the TAF period across all sites.
With temperatures climbing into the lower and mid 90s and dew points around 70 this afternoon, heat indices will climb into the 100 to 105 range along and south of Interstate 94.
642 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Patchy fog along the highway 14 corridor this morning with moist airmass across the area and relatively weak flow.
Otherwise, expect highs mainly in the 90s throughout the lower elevations, such as the Central Valley, West Side Hills, and the Sierra Nevada foothills.
Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop in the higher terrain along the Continental Divide, Elk, Sawatch, and San Juan ranges by noon.
A stronger cold front/trough passage is indicated for the weekend to continue the rain chance.
Temperatures will be the talk today as these climb to the lower 90s along the coast and mid 90s across the interior.
446 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Marco is done, at least from the technical aspect of being a tropical cyclone. Surface obs show that it no longer has a close circulation but rather now an open trough. Once the sun rises and daytime heating gets going, the low end tornado threat will spread inland.
The upper level ridge is remain firmly in place and southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will return during the afternoon. Wednesday: We may "cool off" a degree or two on Wednesday as we begin flattening the upper level ridge for the second half of the week.
It will continue to track slowly west before finally opening up as a trough this morning.
Some scattered high clouds and a few middle level clouds are forecast to spread north/west into our area, as cyclonic circulation aloft from the inverted trough transports some moisture overhead. As a result, low temperatures for tonight into Wednesday morning will be a few degrees warmer.
315 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Stagnant upper ridge remains centered over the Four Corners overnight with light west-northwest flow aloft transporting some smoke from CA and CO wildfires into the region. We will have to endure one more day of hot temperatures and hazy skies with the low level thermal ridge over the high plains. Model/ensemble solutions have been consistent with gradual suppression of the large scale upper ridge through the middle to end of the week.
Remnant circulation associated with what was once tropical cyclone Marco is evident on satellite imagery traveling westward south of Vermilion Bay. Low clouds around this low are spreading MVFR cigs west acrs the Acadiana terminals and should be reaching LCH as well as AEX within the next few hours. The combination of the low clouds and increasing coverage of mid and high clouds spreading acrs the area from the southwest will result in mostly BKN cigs acrs the area today. conditions around southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this morning has showers from the debris of Marco moving through southeastern Louisiana with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and generally light winds in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Expansive upper ridge remains over much of the western CONUS ahead of a trough off the coast of British Columbia and extending out to the eastern Pacific. With high pressure still in place, a persistence forecast holds with continued southwesterly winds and sunny skies.
625 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
441 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Upper ridge axis is shifting from the Rockies to the northern plains, with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. Even warmer air will advect into the region today ahead of the slow- moving trough, especially across south central SD. Lesser chances of storms expected Fri/Sat as a transient ridge migrates over the northern plains behind a cool front.
622 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An upper level ridge will remain over the region today, allowing highs to once again warm into the lower to middle 90s. Highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Humidity levels will increase some allowing heat index values to warm into the lower to middle 90s. With the drier air in place think there will be a sharp cut off in rainfall amounts west and north of the low track.
Drier airmass forecast to settle over the region after mid-week despite weak trough lingering off the coast.
For today, the upper-level trough accompanied by the jet streak remains over the area in the morning, allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop over the waters where there is plenty of moisture and CAPE. A few short term model guidance, such as the NAM12, show a mid-level inverted trough over Northeast Mexico into Central Texas producing a vorticity maximum over portions of South Texas allowing for greater CAPE and a weaker cap for favorable conditions to allow storms to sustain.
A few thunderstorms are possible over parts of the area today as a cold front moves close to the area. A cold front will approach the area from the northeast but never reach here. Believe any clouds from the convection to the north should thin out today, allowing sunshine to boost temperatures into the lower and middle 90s.
Temps this afternoon will trend a degree or two warmer than yesterday, so most locations should get into the lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid/upper 90s, highest west of I- 65 where dewpoints will push 70. Warm, muggy, and generally dry weather will be in store Wednesday and as high pressure centered near Bermuda influences the region.
1009 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
VFR conditions will prevail as benign conditions persist under high pressure.
Typically, smoke would reduce storm strength given the reduction in solar heating; however, given synoptic ascent with approaching trough, convection should be able to overcome wildfire smoke influences to some extent.
With temperatures climbing into the lower and mid 90s and dew points around 70 this afternoon, heat indices will climb into the 100 to 105 range along and south of Interstate 94. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, a short wave trough will move east across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
High pressure aloft centered along the northern Arizona and New Mexico border will result in near record to record heat today. The upper high will become centered along the northern Arizona/New Mexico border today, with hot temperatures once again for much of the lower elevations of Arizona. Otherwise, the upper high remains in a favorable position for isolated to scattered storm development across the forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the highest pops in the White Mountains and from Nogales westward into central and western Pima county.
403 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Patchy fog along the highway 14 corridor this morning with moist airmass across the area and relatively weak flow.
/issued 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020/ A strong upper ridge remains locked in over the southwestern U. This ridge will continue to promote dry weather over W TX/SE NM and hold temperatures above normal into this weekend.
545 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Stagnant upper ridge remains centered over the Four Corners overnight with light west-northwest flow aloft transporting some smoke from CA and CO wildfires into the region. We will have to endure one more day of hot temperatures and hazy skies with the low level thermal ridge over the high plains. Model/ensemble solutions have been consistent with gradual suppression of the large scale upper ridge through the middle to end of the week.
633 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Currently across the country, high pressure remains over the Four Corners region in the southwest U. while upper ridging remains in place across the central CONUS.
Model guidance is indicating an upper-level disturbance currently situated about 400mi WSW of Cape Mendocino moving northeast today and passing over the area during Wednesday, bringing another round of isolated thunderstorm potential for Trinity and possibly NE Mendocino as daytime heating destabilizes the lower atmosphere.
358 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Today and tonight the upper high center will be near the Four Corners region. Temps this afternoon over the southeast plains will be in the 90s to around 100, with 80s in the high valleys, and upper 70s to mid 80s in Teller County.
607 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Message of the Day: Hot weather to continue through the week with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper ridge that has led to the region warming up and drying out over the last few days will continue to expand eastward through the week. There is a weak mid-level disturbance, within the upper ridge, that is situated over southern Texas.
The script will flip tonight as moisture and lift return to the low-levels with solid agreement among various model guidance (MOS, CAMs, and model soundings included).
conditions around southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this morning has showers from the debris of Marco moving through southeastern Louisiana with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and generally light winds in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
As Laura continues to move away into the Gulf of Mexico, relatively drier air and building high pressure will keep coverage fairly limited into the evening. The flow will ease as the gradient between the high and Laura shifts. The moist flow off the Atlantic will keep temperatures during the overnights from falling much below the mid 70s inland around the Lake to the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast.
831 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Hot and dry conditions will prevail as the high pressure centered over the four corners begins to move south into Arizona.
Otherwise a very warm thermal ridge builds in through the night and especially for Wednesday. 925 temps will reach 24c- 28c so temps into the low or even mid 90s look reachable.
The inverted trough from southwest Texas develops more toward southwest Oklahoma Wednesday morning, and may even close off into a closed low near the Red River valley according to the ECMWF.
Temps going into the early Wed look to fall predom into the lower 70s for most spots. Afternoon highs both Wed/Thu should trend a few degrees higher than today, as high pressure at the sfc becomes reinforced across the mid/srn Atlantic states. Overnight lows into Thu night look to trend mainly in the lower/perhaps mid 70s.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler overnight. A stronger cold front/trough passage is indicated for the weekend to continue the rain chance.
The upper level ridge continues across the area tonight into Wednesday.
High pressure is the main story across the Panhandles, yet there is a mid level inverter trough across the Big Country and into SW Oklahoma, with a vorticity maximum roughly located near Abilene. Skies will remain Sunny/clear through tomorrow, with morning lows on Wednesday in the lower 60s, while temperatures will reach the middle and upper 90s during the afternoon hours.
1131 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Stagnant upper ridge remains centered over the Four Corners overnight with light west-northwest flow aloft transporting some smoke from CA and CO wildfires into the region. We will have to endure one more day of hot temperatures and hazy skies with the low level thermal ridge over the high plains. Model/ensemble solutions have been consistent with gradual suppression of the large scale upper ridge through the middle to end of the week.
A weak inverted trough will remain over the area, which may result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm over southern and southeast counties this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.
the area sits under generally northerly flow with the pattern dominated by high pressure centered over the Desert SW and the ridge axis extending northeastward through the Central Plains. At the surface, winds remain southerly across the CWA, as we sit in between low pressure/frontal boundary draped through the High Plains into central SD and high pressure over much of the southeastern CONUS. It remains a dry forecast, with that upper level high/ridging remaining the main feature. Any precipitation chances look to be tied to peak-heating thunderstorm development over the higher elevations/areas closer to the sfc boundary. As we get into the latter portion of the work week and upcoming weekend, the main story is with the upper level high pressure/ridging losing it hold over the area. bringing some precip chances and cooler temperatures.
Northern and western areas will be hot with plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower to perhaps mid 90s.
Thunderstorms are not anticipated as a warm frontal boundary works northward across the CWA due to capping warm mid-level temperatures in place. An approaching low pressure system over Montana will cause the warm front to lift northward today. Southerly winds in the lower levels will bring much above normal temps into the CWA with highs reaching the upper 80s in western MN, to +100 in central South Dakota. Late this afternoon through tonight, an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will slowly track across western South Dakota. Convection may develop along the cold front over north central SD, or where the EML could be slightly cooler.
Summer heat returns today and Wednesday before a cold front and tropical moisture provide additional chances for showers and thunderstorms by weeks end. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area is expected to be dry and hot with temperatures in the lower 90s.
An upper level ridge will remain over the region today, allowing highs to once again warm into the lower to middle 90s. Highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Humidity levels will increase some allowing heat index values to warm into the lower to middle 90s. With the drier air in place think there will be a sharp cut off in rainfall amounts west and north of the low track.
207 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Hot and dry weather lingers as the upper level ridge continues to migrate slowly eastward across the region. Two high pressure systems situated over the SE and SW United States greatly affect the trajectory of Laura as it moves toward the Gulf Coast. The highest chance for any hydrological impacts on the EAX CWA from Laura are fairly minor and concentrated to the southern most counties. The upper level ridge begins to level out as Laura departs MO.
242 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 It's a tale of two weather worlds across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with hot and dry conditions prevalent across the northwestern half of the forecast area and numerous showers and thunderstorms with much cooler temperatures over the southeast half. Highs will likely be slightly cooler than today due to the more widespread clouds and precip, with most locations remaining in the 80s.
1247 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Patchy fog along the highway 14 corridor this morning with moist airmass across the area and relatively weak flow.
Leeside troughing will continue to persist over eastern Colorado giving way to south winds gusting up to 20-30 mph through the peak heating hours of the afternoon where temperatures will push into the mid to upper 90s once again. Expect more of the same for Wednesday with south winds picking up by mid morning due to daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer winds that were capped off overnight gusting up to 20-30 mph with the leeside trough deepening due to the diurnal trends of the day. Afternoon high temperatures will once again push into the mid to upper 90s with warmer temperatures westward towards the Colorado state line. This pattern looks to persist through week's end before changes come for the weekend with increasing rain chances and cooler temperatures.
231 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 The potential for thunderstorms along the weak boundary/warm front stretching across central Minnesota continues to be the focus during the short term period. On Wednesday, however, mid-level temps cool as the ridge flattens.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 87 73 91 74 / 20 30 20 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 72 89 74 / 10 20 20 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 89 72 89 73 / 10 20 20 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 89 68 87 71 / 10 10 10 60 30.
Wednesday will likely be dry with gusty southwest flow across the area south of the warm front. Given forecast 925 mb temps in the 28-30C range, would not be surprised to see some of the warmer locales make a run at the upper 90s, with hazy sunshine expected due to smoke from western US wildfires.
With 14C at 700mb per mesoanalysis would need more than the subtle forcing of weak ridge rider to initiate convection across the FA this afternoon and evening. Cooler tomorrow in the behind the front with highs in the 70s north to near 90 in the humid and muggy southern valley.
Meanwhile an upper level low remains to our south with plenty of unsettled weather south of the area.
1211 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 High pressure remains in control across the Panhandles this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail as benign conditions persist under high pressure.
253 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure in place over northwest SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending across far northern WY and northern SD. A cold front is located further northwest near the MT/Canadian border. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted ridge from the desert southwest to the northern and central plains. Today will be the warmest day of the week, with a gradual cooling trend mid to late week as the persistent ridge over the region finally weakens and allows some cooler air to build in from the north.
156 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will remain over the area through the week keeping a very moist air mass over the region. Broad weak high pressure continues to build into the area from the east, promoting some mid level drying. Lows in the low 70s. High pressure aloft will build into the Southeast U. from the Western Atlantic Ocean during the second half of the week which will lead to higher H5 heights and warmer temperatures.
357 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Cold front passes the area tonight with a much cooler and drier airmass moving into the region for Wednesday.
Drier airmass aloft will support lower rainfall chances today, while humid southeast flow around the high pressure ridge axis just north of the region will combine with warmer temps to produce Peak Heat Indices/Feels Like temps in the 105-110 range this afternoon. Max Temps will top out in the lower/middle 90s inland and upper 80s/near 90 degrees along the coast.
Models show the positively tilted ridge axis getting pushed to the East by the arrival of the upstream trough to the coast.
1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Currently across the country, high pressure remains over the Four Corners region in the southwest U. while upper ridging remains in place across the central CONUS.
Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today, but a degree or two cooler.
252 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
1212 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
1128 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Upper ridge axis is shifting from the Rockies to the northern plains, with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. Even warmer air will advect into the region today ahead of the slow- moving trough, especially across south central SD. Lesser chances of storms expected Fri/Sat as a transient ridge migrates over the northern plains behind a cool front.
Temps range from around 80 under clouds in rain in NE MS to the lower 90s across northern sections of the Mid-South. Models are indicating that much of the precipitation may lift north and weaken Wednesday afternoon as subsidence from Laura and the upper ridge strengthens over the Mid-South. Wednesday night looks mostly dry and mild with upper ridging and strong subsidence across the Mid-South.
/issued 446 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020/ Marco is done, at least from the technical aspect of being a tropical cyclone. Surface obs show that it no longer has a close circulation but rather now an open trough. Once the sun rises and daytime heating gets going, the low end tornado threat will spread inland.
331 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An area of low pressure is deepening to our west while high pressure slowly moves off to the east. Upper level ridging may help to quell the intensity of anything that does develop, but an embedded short wave may cause some isolated potential for severe storms as CAPE and shear both become more favorable overnight.
Most areas have been on the dry side today, but GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows an expanding CU field over the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming as well as the I-80 corridor eastward across Laramie County. Diurnally driven convection will likely diminish by mid-evening, but a few showers could persist well into the night across northern zones as a 500 mb short wave lifts north and east across the region along the edge of a flattening ridge. Model/ensemble solutions have been consistent with gradual suppression of the large scale upper ridge through the middle to end of the week.
109 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will remain over the area through the week keeping a very moist air mass over the region. The mid and upper level ridge off the coast this morning will build east into the area this afternoon and tonight bringing some mid level drying. Models indicate more drying overnight from the north as the mid level ridge builds over the area. Overnight lows will once again be in the low to mid 70s. High pressure aloft will build into the Southeast U. from the Western Atlantic Ocean during the second half of the week which will lead to higher H5 heights and warmer temperatures.
125 PM PDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Hot and dry conditions will prevail as the high pressure centered over the four corners begins to move south into Arizona.
254 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 A strong high pressure ridge is currently set up over the Four Corners area which stretches into the Central Plains today.
215 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Upper level high pressure remains anchored across the four corners region. 26/12z NAM does hint at an isolated thunderstorm or two up in SD late this afternoon and this evening near the trough. The winds aloft are a bit stronger in that area with mid-level temperatures a tad cooler. This will force a cold front southward into western and north central Nebraska. It will be a few degrees cooler in the lower 90s behind the front across northern and northwest NE.
944 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 High pressure will remain over the Atlantic this morning.
The latest NHC track is pretty much the same as the last few advisories, with the Bermuda ridge steering Laura wnwwd to the nwrn Gulf before a weakness in the ridge allows her to turn nnwwd toward the coast in the vicinity of Sabine Pass. The system will continue north along the lower Sabine Valley, departing the nrn zones shortly after sunrise.