Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
404 AM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Key Impact Messages: 1) Elevated winds may develop across the wind prone by Sunday but confidence is low regarding the high wind potential. Weather Details: A reinforcing surge of CAA has spread across the region today behind a backdoor cold front that pushed through area. This quiet pattern is being driven by a protruding upper level ridge axis expanding across the Intermountain West. The prolonged northwest flow pattern that continues through this weekend finally looks to break down mid-week as an upper level trough will dig into the four corners region.
Snowfall will begin to taper off around sunrise this morning as dry air quickly filters in behind the upper level trough swinging across the forecast area. Surface winds today will back to the west with clearing skies this morning and temperatures warming above freezing into the 40s across the Panhandles, which will help to melt away any snowfall that occurred overnight. Areas across the eastern Panhandles off the Caprock will be a few degrees warmer and approach the upper 40s to lower 50s today.
With continuing CAA highs will only be in the single digits above zero for most this afternoon with some double digit readings possible near the Buffalo Ridge.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) The well advertised cold front is now pushing south of the international border with gusty northeast winds following in its wake. Cold air advection has contributed to temperatures falling into the 30s across northern portions of the region with some locations expected to fall below freezing, mainly the northwest Permian Basin and much of southeast New Mexico.
A cold front is currently tracking through the TN Valley this morning, and as of 2 AM, has pushed through far northwest Alabama. High temperatures will reach the mid 50s for our southeastern counties, as temperatures warm ahead of the cold front. Elsewhere, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s today as cold air advection surges into the region. We will be monitoring a weakening trough axis at 850 mb that will track over the area tonight. Temperatures fall into the low 20s overnight and moderate north winds will bring apparent temperatures into the low teens. The high pressure system settles over the TN Valley for the remainder of the short term period. Winds will become light and variable as temperatures only reach the low to mid 40s on Sunday and the low 20s Sunday night.
526 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front moved through the area yesterday bringing gusty north winds but little in the way of colder air initially. Meanwhile, upper trough dropping south through the area this morning may result in a few sprinkles or flurries along the Red river this morning.
/issued 429 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022/ Winter-like temperatures return to the Midsouth today, following the passage of an Arctic cold front last evening to early this morning. This front pushed south through the region, as a longwave trof deepened over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. This will begin the process of swinging the longwave trof axis to the eastern seaboard by Sunday night, leaving deamplifying northwest flow aloft over the Midsouth.
429 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 Winter-like temperatures return to the Midsouth today, following the passage of an Arctic cold front last evening to early this morning. This front pushed south through the region, as a longwave trof deepened over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. This will begin the process of swinging the longwave trof axis to the eastern seaboard by Sunday night, leaving deamplifying northwest flow aloft over the Midsouth.
Surface ridging will nudge closer to the area through this evening.
Additionally, sub- freezing conditions will result in icing on aircraft this morning into early this afternoon. The lower atmosphere will start out dry, and surface temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. However, top-down moistening will cause the lower layers to saturate and dry bulb to just below freezing for the aforementioned locations. With northerly winds advecting cooler temperatures into the CWA for much of the day, temperatures are expected to only rise into the mid to upper 40s.
Morning sounding from the Cape (XMR) shows a deep layer of SSW/SW flow aloft as the ridge axis remains well south of Florida ahead of the cold front that will push through central FL late tonight and into Sunday. Showers are expected late tonight and into portions of Sunday afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that will push through central FL. As the trough axis shifts away from the coast, north winds will develop along the Volusia coast with speeds around 10 knots.
311 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 A warm front was located north to south across the western Sandhills. Ahead of this system, a warm front will move eastward through most of western NE, bringing highs into the low 40s across the west and central to mid 30s far northeast. Drier air will move in behind the front, with dewpoints falling into the low single digits west and central. Sunday, a warm front will push eastward as wind turn to the west and southwest. Warmed highs up into the low to mid 50s west and southwest, with upper 30s northeast.
Some model guidance hints that a layer of stratus may form across the Arrowhead as a sharp short wave crosses in the presence of an upper level jet streak left exit region which would provide the lift for cloud formation and thus could play into warmer temperatures tonight; however, this is not a certainty given how dry the air mass is.
Surface ridging will continue to shift to our south, allowing westerly winds to quickly return by Sunday.
However, downslope flow coming off the Cheyenne Ridge could allow for highs near 50, closer to the WY-NE border, where no snow cover exists.
Winds back through the period and increase into this evening ahead of an area of low pressure moving down into the region.
328 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 Big changes temp-wise today as a passing cold front really cools things down.
A vigorous upper level trough will pivot south across the region overnight tonight. 00Z HREF suggests the highest chances for light snow remain mostly to the west in conjunction with the mid- level warm advection signal, possibly clipping parts of SE MN/NE IA for a time, but amounts look to be under 1/2 inch. Another short wave trough will slide across the area Sunday night in the persistent northwest flow aloft. Between 2 and 4 ubar/s of up glide will occur on the 280K isentropic surface north of the weak warm front and primarily along and east of the Mississippi River.
An upper low will drop southward out of Manitoba into Minnesota, swinging an upper trough across the northern plains which will mainly affect areas to the north and east of the forecast area. Breezy to windy conditions will develop this afternoon as pressure rises increase to the west of the low pressure system.
Some model guidance hints that a layer of stratus may form across the Arrowhead as a sharp short wave crosses in the presence of an upper level jet streak left exit region which would provide the lift for cloud formation and thus warmer temperatures tonight; however, this is not a certainty given how dry the air mass is.
Remainder is somewhat marginal as well, but still holding close to -25F, so will leave areas along/east of the Buffalo Ridge and into Dickinson County intact until scheduled expiration.
432 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 A cold front will move through the region tonight. Weak low pressure will develop on the front offshore Sunday and a few light showers are possible mainly across the northern Midlands. Warm temperatures will continue through today and much cooler Sunday behind the front.
However, high pressure will still maintain it's grip on the region with no westerly component to the wind direction, so it should be another warm day across the region with highs in the 60's. Medford and Klamath Falls are expected to tie the high temperature records of 70 and 61 respectively. By Sunday, the ridge of high pressure remains right over us, yet there are stronger westerly winds compared to what we've seen over the last four days. In a testament to that, Klamath Falls will probably see the high temperature record of 61 fall to the forecast high of 63. Limited cloud cover and relatively high pressure will definitely keep things on the warm side for Super Bowl Sunday.
628 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 A cold front will move through the region tonight. Weak low pressure will develop on the front offshore Sunday and a few light showers are possible mainly across the northern Midlands. Warm temperatures will continue through today and much cooler Sunday behind the front.
The breezy northerly winds will continue through the rest of the day, keeping temperatures 10 to 20 degrees cooler than normal this afternoon. In addition, an upper level trough will move through the area, bringing enough lift to at least bring mostly cloudy skies into the area. The trough axis itself will move through our forecast area during the afternoon hours.
354 AM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Synoptic Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains through the weekend. between a deamplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast and a broad upper level trough east of the Mississippi. Today-Tonight: In the wake of recent cold advection, expect cooler temperatures. with highs in the lower-mid 40s. as the aforementioned upper trough progresses slowly east toward the Appalachians and the deamplifying Pacific Coast ridge extends eastward into portions of the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest.
With strong cold advection expected, the lower stratus clouds over the region through the day will provide some chance of flurries. In addition, some of the high-resolution guidance tries to spit out some light QPF along the TN border region of west Kentucky this afternoon just ahead of the trough. In the wake of today's upper trough, another stronger and more compact impulse will dive southeast through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Sunday. The larger-scale models keep any light QPF to our northeast, but some of the higher-resolution guidance brings a hundredth or two down along the I-64 corridor, mainly Sunday afternoon. This could result in a light dusting of snow with temperatures near freezing.
The lower atmosphere will start out dry, and surface temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. However, top-down moistening will cause the lower layers to saturate and dry bulb to just below freezing for the aforementioned locations. With northerly winds advecting cooler temperatures into the CWA for much of the day, temperatures are expected to only rise into the mid to upper 40s.
Due to a ridge of high pressure over the Western CONUS, afternoon temperatures will hover around 10 degrees warmer than seasonal averages this weekend.
We are continuing to watch scattered snow flurries on radar move across the northern parts of the CWA and should dissipate as it runs into drier air in the eastern part of the CWA from the high pressure system currently influencing the upper Midwest. With the incoming low, and its upper level trough, pressure gradients will steepen leading to gusty wind conditions this afternoon across the western CWA (up to 25mph). With temperatures at the surface and aloft below freezing in this area, precip will be in the form of light snow, indicated in BUFKIT and deterministic models.
Central Illinois remains under the influence of upper troughing with northwest flow ushering in much colder temperatures.
919 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 A nice Saturday is underway as ridging starts to push away. /issued 230 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022/ High amplitude pattern will persist across the CONUS with the period starting with a deep mean trough from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains. An U/L disturbance will dig down the backside and into the base of the trough today and tonight across the Mississippi River Valley.
Big changes temp-wise today as a passing cold front really cools things down.
454 AM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Key Impact Messages: 1) Elevated winds may develop across the wind prone by Sunday but confidence is low regarding the high wind potential. Weather Details: A reinforcing surge of CAA has spread across the region today behind a backdoor cold front that pushed through area. This quiet pattern is being driven by a protruding upper level ridge axis expanding across the Intermountain West. The prolonged northwest flow pattern that continues through this weekend finally looks to break down mid-week as an upper level trough will dig into the four corners region.
Went below model blends and closer to the cooler side of guidance along the I- 25 corridor over the fresh snow pack. Elsewhere temperatures will top out in the 30s to lower 40s for the mountain valleys, mid 40s for the far eastern plains and 20s and 30s for the higher mountains. lee trough will keep some enhanced westerly drainage winds along the lower eastern slopes. This combined with warming temperatures aloft will keep lows slightly warmer along and west of I-25.
510 AM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Northwest flow remains over the region between Pacific ridge and Hudson Bay low. Temperatures continue to warm into Sunday with slight flattening of the ridge, and another clipper tracking across central Canada.
542 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 A ridge of high pressure is building southeast across the Plains into the Midwest this morning. Cold advection will continue today as ridge moves east across the Midwest, and temperatures will struggle to rebound into the mid 20s to around 30 in most locations. Deterministic guidance continues to show strong warm advection in the northeast quadrant of the low on Sunday morning along with strong low level frontogenesis. 1 inch of snow are mostly in the low to mid chance range on Sunday, but there are some 55-60% chance values showing up across central/south central Illinois. Carney Cold advection will shut down quickly on Sunday night behind the clipper as the next ridge axis drifts quickly southeast into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
1140 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front moved through the area yesterday bringing gusty north winds but little in the way of colder air initially. Meanwhile, upper trough dropping south through the area this morning may result in a few sprinkles or flurries along the Red river this morning.
Temperatures are steadily climbing into the low to mid 70s and dew points in the mid 60s with isolated showers in the Straits of Florida.
Aloft - an amplified progressive trough extending from southern Canada into Texas was traversing eastward as a belt of strong mid and upper level winds was advancing across Montana into the central Plains. A warmer afternoon, more fall - like 50s should be achieved over the broader area as the cool boundary layer over central Kansas continued to modify with weak southwest return flow.
320 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted long wave trough across the Mississippi River Valley and northern Mexico. The MOS-consensus rain and thunder chances steadily increased over the past 48-hours, although increasing cloudiness can sometimes contaminate POPs towards the high side. We advertise 60% and 50% chances for tonight and Sunday (respectively), on the low end of the consensus.
A cold front currently pushing into the panhandle will be heading our way overnight.
1155 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 A ridge of high pressure is building southeast across the Plains into the Midwest this morning. Cold advection will continue today as ridge moves east across the Midwest, and temperatures will struggle to rebound into the mid 20s to around 30 in most locations. Deterministic guidance continues to show strong warm advection in the northeast quadrant of the low on Sunday morning along with strong low level frontogenesis. 1 inch of snow are mostly in the low to mid chance range on Sunday, but there are some 55-60% chance values showing up across central/south central Illinois. Carney Cold advection will shut down quickly on Sunday night behind the clipper as the next ridge axis drifts quickly southeast into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
At this time, a broad upper-level trough is soon to move through the Quad State. Reinforcement of the upper trough in the Quad State will result in another round of clouds tomorrow, albeit with less coverage relative to today, and another chance of flurries or light snow for the I-64 corridor.
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 The High Wind Warning that was in effect for Guadalupe Pass has expired as scheduled this morning, with wind speeds expected to continue decreasing into this afternoon. (Today through Sunday afternoon) The well advertised cold front is now pushing south of the international border with gusty northeast winds following in its wake. Cold air advection has contributed to temperatures falling into the 30s across northern portions of the region with some locations expected to fall below freezing, mainly the northwest Permian Basin and much of southeast New Mexico.
1039 AM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Synoptic Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains through the weekend. between a deamplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast and a broad upper level trough east of the Mississippi. Today-Tonight: In the wake of recent cold advection, expect cooler temperatures. with highs in the lower-mid 40s. as the aforementioned upper trough progresses slowly east toward the Appalachians and the deamplifying Pacific Coast ridge extends eastward into portions of the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest.
158 PM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Synoptic Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains through the weekend. between a deamplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast and a broad upper level trough east of the Mississippi. Today-Tonight: In the wake of recent cold advection, expect cooler temperatures. with highs in the lower-mid 40s. as the aforementioned upper trough progresses slowly east toward the Appalachians and the deamplifying Pacific Coast ridge extends eastward into portions of the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest. Main focus for this part of the forecast will be the trough moving onto the Plains mid week. Starting out this period will be an upper level ridge over the forecast area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 45 24 52 30 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 42 22 47 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 25 42 21 47 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 39 19 42 25 / 50 10 10 0 0.
Temperatures are expected to be cooler today than what we had yesterday but still well above where we should be this time of year. Due to a ridge of high pressure over the Western CONUS, afternoon temperatures will hover around 10 degrees warmer than seasonal averages this weekend.
1233 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 Above normal temperatures today before a cold front moves through the region tonight. Weak low pressure will develop on the front offshore Sunday and a few light showers are possible mainly across the northern Midlands.
The system should exit to the southeast by 6Z Sunday as a dry, Canadian high pressure drops southward into the CWA. Additional light snow could be possible Sunday evening with the passage of a cold front.
This will result in light west to southwest surface winds by Sunday afternoon, along with warmer temperatures. After a chilly start to the day, expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
222 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 Very cold conditions are in place over the Midwest today, as high pressure is over the Plains. Looking west and north, "upstream" we're seeing a clipper low pressure in North Dakota, with a arc of mid clouds extending Southeast through central Iowa.
Cold high pressure somewhat slow to exit on Sunday with temperature recovery east of I-29 likely a little slow to evolve. Warm advection in the low to mid levels increaser late afternoon into early evening and will include some flurries and patchy light snow over mainly southwest MN to account for this.
1200 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 A warm front was located north to south across the western Sandhills. Ahead of this system, a warm front will move eastward through most of western NE, bringing highs into the low 40s across the west and central to mid 30s far northeast. Drier air will move in behind the front, with dewpoints falling into the low single digits west and central. Sunday, a warm front will push eastward as wind turn to the west and southwest. Warmed highs up into the low to mid 50s west and southwest, with upper 30s northeast.
Although the surface front is now well to our east, the upper trough is lagging far behind and we likely won't realize any meaningful clearing until later tonight and tomorrow when the trough comes through and scatters out the remaining moisture.
212 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 The overall synoptic pattern remains one of a longwave trough over the east and ridging over the west per the 20Z water vapor imagery. A cold and dry high pressure system was centered over the southern plains. Have lows generally around 20 for tonight, but with a little more mixing and cloud cover there is some potential for lows to be a tad warmer.
Short range and high resolution models continue to differ on the amount of low level moisture available, but we suspect that drier air near the surface may advect across the region late tonight with dewpoints falling into the 20s, yielding greater T/Td spreads in the lower levels of the atmosphere as ascent moves overhead. A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon and evening.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Key Messages: - Light snow possible NE overnight into Sunday morning and again Sunday night - Strong cold front Wed with temperatures falling through the day.
934 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 (Issued 934 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022) High pressure is building into Wisconsin today and will settle overhead tonight. Surface ridging will nudge closer to the area through this evening.
Snow melting as it falls into the warmer layers below so will be keeping it as rain/showers but could a flake get spotted up north yes but the prevailing weather should be rain. Cold front nearing CXO at 17z and will continue move quickly southward.
Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail for the rest of the weekend thanks to high pressure.
Snow and cloud cover may result in cooler temperatures by a degree or two, but otherwise the overall forecast is on track and no major changes were made to the forecast. However, downslope flow coming off the Cheyenne Ridge could allow for highs near 50, closer to the WY-NE border, where no snow cover exists.
1034 AM MST Sat Feb 12 2022 Key Impact Messages: 1) Elevated winds may develop across the wind prone by Sunday but confidence is low regarding the high wind potential. Weather Details: A reinforcing surge of CAA has spread across the region today behind a backdoor cold front that pushed through area. This quiet pattern is being driven by a protruding upper level ridge axis expanding across the Intermountain West. The prolonged northwest flow pattern that continues through this weekend finally looks to break down mid-week as an upper level trough will dig into the four corners region.
Cancelled the wind chill advisory early this morning as cloud cover and light winds under the high are preventing the very cold wind chills from occurring. We are continuing to watch scattered snow flurries on radar move across the northern parts of the CWA and should dissipate as it runs into drier air in the eastern part of the CWA from the high pressure system currently influencing the upper Midwest. With the incoming low, and its upper level trough, pressure gradients will steepen leading to gusty wind conditions this afternoon across the western CWA (up to 25mph). With temperatures at the surface and aloft below freezing in this area, precip will be in the form of light snow, indicated in BUFKIT and deterministic models.