Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1042 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure extending into the region from offshore will weaken as moisture increases from the Gulf Coast Region. Upper level trough axis shifts to the east into the Carolinas with channeled vorticity max across the Upstate into southwest Georgia. A Surface pressure ridge is expected to build south across the western Carolina. GFS Mos is much cooler than other guidance during the day. Went close to the NBM guidance for highs in the low 80s and scattered showers and thunderstorms possibly more numerous in the CSRA to the SC Piedmont where lift, moisture flux, and instability strongest.
High pressure has begun to push eastward towards the Great Lakes, with a cold frontal boundary hanging up and becoming nearly stationary across the Pacific Northwest.
Otherwise, high pressure and clear skies will bring a cool start to Thursday morning with sunrise temperatures in the 50s. Skies are clearing from the northwest as mid and high cloud associated with the weak upper trough axis and jet streak shuttle east/southeastward, and expect mostly clear skies across the area by late this afternoon into this evening. Despite what should be full sun tomorrow, preferred the ever so slightly cooler MOS blend for highs tomorrow with damp ground, a lack of strong low level mixing, and low level thickness progs only modestly higher by the afternoon. Still should see the low 80s for most areas. Min temps tomorrow night will recover back into the 60s as we get on the backside of the high and winds begin to veer back to the southeast/south.
Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy as a whole and temperatures should only drop about 5 more degrees into the lower to mid 60s.
1027 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish ahead of a southward sinking cold front, diminishing by early evening as the cold front pushes south of the region.
High pressure will setup north of the waters this weekend, producing easterly to southeasterly winds, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
Winds will veer southerly and become light overnight, as temps settle in the low to mid 70s.
858 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A cold front pushes in from the Ohio River Valley.
/issued 223 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021/ There are a few areas to watch for thunderstorm initiation this afternoon into tonight 1: the higher terrain of New Mexico, 2: a defuse boundary over the northern South Plains leftover from earlier thunderstorms, and 3: the edge of the Caprock escarpment. A few weaknesses are expected to form within the periphery of the ridge to our west and move over the higher terrain of New Mexico and the boundary over the northwestern CWA. A cut-off low is expected to form within one of the aforementioned weaknesses in the ridge to our west and be located over northwestern Oklahoma by sometime tomorrow morning.
808 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 After a gusty day today, a cooler day is expected across North- Central and Southwestern Montana with high temperatures generally in the 60s area-wide. - Fogleman After a breezy day today as a weak disturbance passed to our north, tomorrow will be a noticeably cooler and calmer day as a high pressure system moves over the area. The cooler, quiet weather will not last for long, however, as a potent upper level trough and associated atmospheric river will crash into the Pacific Northwest.
923 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A weak cold front is working its way into the Mid-South this evening, extending roughly along a Jonesboro-Union City line. This will leave the Mid-South in a somewhat subsident regime tomorrow as the upper-level ridge noses into the region behind the departing low. /issued 317 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021/ Late summer upper level ridging will prevail over the Midsouth into the early weekend, but the weather won't be as hot and dry as that ridging might imply. As the remnants of Tropical Depression Nicholas lift east along the gulf coast, tropical moisture, as represented by precipitable water values of 2+ inches, will build north from the central gulf coast in advance of a weak upper low over east Texas.
A few showers moved across the Thumb region this afternoon in response to the weak surface and upper trough. In general, high pressure with drier air moves over nearly all of the forecast area overnight. With the dry air advecting in and the clear skies, will lean toward the cooler guidance numbers for low temperatures.
643 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Visible satellite shows what is left of the cold front that came through yesterday situated down across southwest OK where some towering CU is starting to build. By Sat, upper ridging will continue to build from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies which will continue a warming trend across the Southern/Central Plains. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 80s. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a robust upper trough moving through the Central Plains on Tue. Regardless of which model verifies, the main affect this system will have will be to bring much cooler temps for Tue and especially Wed, maybe even something "fall-like".
Cooler but seasonable conditions will prevail through the end of the week. As a trough approaches the West Coast this weekend, temperatures will dip below normal.
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure extending into the region from offshore will weaken as moisture increases from the Gulf Coast Region. Upper level trough axis shifts to the east into the Carolinas with channeled vorticity max across the Upstate into southwest Georgia. A Surface pressure ridge is expected to build south across the western Carolina. GFS Mos is much cooler than other guidance during the day. Went close to the NBM guidance for highs in the low 80s and scattered showers and thunderstorms possibly more numerous in the CSRA to the SC Piedmont where lift, moisture flux, and instability strongest.
543 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the region this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected until passage of the upper trough/cold front later this evening.
Satellite imagery is showing the upper trough continuing to move off to our east with clear skies behind it over Missouri and Illinois. Britt The cold front is now south of the forecast area and has left cooler temperatures and mostly clear skies in its wake with high pressure building in from the northwest. This may set the stage for a little fog development, especially in SE MO and southern IL given their proximity to the center of the high and slightly richer moisture.
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this afternoon along a surface boundary and trough overhead. Activity should diminish this evening, with only a few CAMs showing additional development ahead of a cold front later this afternoon/early evening in the northwest. This will allow for some diurnal convection in the late morning through the afternoon, especially in the east and south where proximity to the low may help out a bit more to get some showers and storms going.
Marine layer deepened last night as a weak eddy spun up pushing clouds throughout the lower coastal valleys. Models continue to advertise slight warming Fri/Sat while at the same time showing a weak upper low approaching from the southwest and onshore gradients weakening.
904 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure will build across the area on Thursday.
530 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Latest upper analysis shows westerly flow aloft over the region this afternoon with an upper low moving from northern Alberta into northern Saskatchewan and an E-W oriented upper trough dropping southward toward the international border. At the surface, a N-S trough extends across the central Dakotas into swrn Neb. A cold front will swing across the region on Thursday accompanied by breezy to windy conditions. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s behind the cold front and 80s ahead of it.
Area of TSRA continues near a stationary front with BPK/HRO carrying the highest potential for terminal impacts through around 16/04Z.
905 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A cold front will settle south of the Mason Dixon line by early Thursday morning.
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The cold front is now south of the forecast area and has left cooler temperatures and mostly clear skies in its wake with high pressure building in from the northwest. This may set the stage for a little fog development, especially in SE MO and southern IL given their proximity to the center of the high and slightly richer moisture.
622 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Lingering cloud cover from this morning's MCV should linger around central OK through the early afternoon, keeping temperatures a little cooler.
/issued 317 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021/ Late summer upper level ridging will prevail over the Midsouth into the early weekend, but the weather won't be as hot and dry as that ridging might imply. As the remnants of Tropical Depression Nicholas lift east along the gulf coast, tropical moisture, as represented by precipitable water values of 2+ inches, will build north from the central gulf coast in advance of a weak upper low over east Texas.
926 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure over lower MI providing quiet wx this evening. Return flow increases overnight as the high shifts east. Have reduced temps in the interior of both peninsulas, where the cold spots (such as CAD/GOV) are already in the low 50s. Expect mainly clear skies for much of tonight, with increasing higher clouds toward morning from the west as warmer air with increasing return flow begins to overspread the area.
715 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure will build across the area on Thursday.
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish ahead of a southward sinking cold front, diminishing by early evening as the cold front pushes south of the region.
659 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The temperature forecast for this afternoon remains on track as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s area-wide behind this morning's cold front. We will generally top out in the mid 80s for highs as high pressure centered near the Iowa-Illinois border continues to bring light northeast winds into the region under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures begin to rebound back above average on Thursday as surface winds turn southerly and the high pressure center pushes farther east into the eastern Great Lakes region.
1013 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Lingering cloud cover from this morning's MCV should linger around central OK through the early afternoon, keeping temperatures a little cooler.
After the cold front on Friday, temperatures will cool back into the 70s to lower 80s.
This low-level stratus deck is anticipated to continue to develop, expanding in coverage Nwrd and Wwrd, through the morning hours as moisture streams Nwrd and interacts with an old boundary situated over extreme Nrn portions of the state.
Temps will range from the mid 50s in the typically cooler spots to lower 60s elsewhere. Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected until passage of the upper trough/cold front later this evening. With the lack of any strong lifting mechanism, any diurnally-driven showers and storms should remain rather low in coverage both Thursday and Friday, with an elevation assist making the ridges most likely to see this activity. Friday will end up a bit warmer with warm advection returning, with high temps back into the lower 80s.
After a gusty day today, a cooler day is expected across North- Central and Southwestern Montana with high temperatures generally in the 60s area-wide. - Fogleman After a breezy day today as a weak disturbance passed to our north, tomorrow will be a noticeably cooler and calmer day as a high pressure system moves over the area. The cooler, quiet weather will not last for long, however, as a potent upper level trough and associated atmospheric river will crash into the Pacific Northwest.
The only area of concern is the southeast corner of the CWA where 700mb temperatures drop from +13C down to around +10C as the trough deepens to the west and a weak impulse comes up from the southwest. The upper trough will have enough mid level ascent to generate weak elevated shower activity, but that should only manifest as mid/high clouds and possibly a few hundreds QPF. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but that will mostly be an overnight occurrence for the northwestern CWA, with much less mixed winds potential as the cooler airmass will be in place by the start of Friday.
434 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Mean layered ridging centered over Mexico and the Western Atlantic is bisected by an upper-level trough axis slicing south through eastern Cuba. A pretty healthy Cuban outflow spread northward last evening, then puttered out as it reached the island chain, scouring out the low level instability. A weak low level ridge axis will remain draped across the Keys today through Friday.
This will occur along an inverted H925-850 trough associated with the remnants of Nicholas, which will drift W during the day along with the low level circulation. Have made some adjustments to the cloud cover overnight to account for the low cloud development, with sct convection expected to increase especially by afternoon mainly from Lower Toledo Bend Country NE across NCntrl LA. However, MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop by/after 06Z over portions of NCntrl LA and spread W into portions of Srn AR/extreme Ern TX around the low level center of TD Nicholas which should meander SSW into the extreme Nrn Gulf from SW LA.
Better low-level flow and again good insolation leads to a warmer day today. A weak cold front associated with the northern wave approaches late tonight and settles into Kansas Friday.
This has led to the redevelopment of the leeside trough and thus a return of the breezy south winds. As 850mb temperatures continue to warm, we will see resulting surface temperatures warmer tomorrow vs. This system will bring the next cold front south across northern and western Kansas during the day Friday. The late Friday front will quickly dissolve as a mid-tropospheric ridge builds from New Mexico northeast across Kansas over the upcoming weekend. While this is occurring, the next storm system out west will begin to take shape, which latest models show being a much larger/deeper trough.
As we head into Friday, an upper level trough will develop from the Ohio Valley into South Texas eroding the zonal flow. With the drier air hanging around one more day, high temperatures will range from the lower to upper 90s today before warming up slightly more Friday. With the warmer temperatures Friday and the increase in moisture, heat indices ranging between 105 to 109 degrees will be possible from the Coastal Bend to the Rio Grande Plains. With the drier air still in place Thursday night, low temperatures will remain comfortable one more night with lows ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
This will set the stage for slightly warmer temperatures today, albeit with continued low humidity. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the low 80s for most inland locations. On Friday we will begin to see a return to warmer and a bit more humid weather as surface winds turn southwesterly in advance of an approaching cold frontal trough moving over across the Upper Midwest.
It will once again be warm and muggy with highs in the low/mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s, with our urban locations around the upper 60s. Late summer doldrums on Friday as we're caught in a weakness between an upper ridge over New Mexico and flatter ridging off the southeast coast. As the weekend progresses, the ridge to our SW tries to build in, but ends up breaking over the northern edge of the trofiness that lingers over the Deep South.
1114 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Flat wly upper flow across the area overnight gradually bends back toward the sw on Thu as s/w trough moves through the nrn Rockies. At the surface, lee trough slowly slides eastward from the I-25 corridor onto the plains Thu, with deepening La Junta cyclone in the afternoon. Humidity will certainly be low enough for an increase in fire danger across the region Thu, however, surface winds appear to stay under 25 mph at most locations, with just some brief 25-30 mph gusts over the higher peaks of the central mountains late in the afternoon.
As high pressure slides to the east during the early morning, moisture flux as a result of light easterly flow over the warm waters of Lake Erie combined with the onset of diurnal mixing will promote some scattered to perhaps broken lower end MVFR based clouds by late morning/early afternoon. A few showers moved across the Thumb region this afternoon in response to the weak surface and upper trough. In general, high pressure with drier air moves over nearly all of the forecast area overnight. With the dry air advecting in and the clear skies, will lean toward the cooler guidance numbers for low temperatures. Friday will see a surge of warmer air on the backside of the high with some return of moisture with warming dew points.
201 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure overhead this morning will slowly drift east across New England this afternoon before moving off the coast tonight and Friday.
Cooler air will continue to move into the region as the cold front progresses southeast, so high temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Warmer temperatures return on Friday due to southwesterly flow developing ahead of the upcoming trough. The slower progression of this weekend's trough means there will be big differences from one side of the forecast area to the other.
The models are a little quicker to settle drier and cooler air into the area on Friday, so shoved the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms south more quickly.
1121 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A cold front will settle south of the Mason Dixon line by early Thursday morning.
Early morning lows in the low to mid 30s will be common around Colville, Deer Park, Newport, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the Palouse, West Plains, and the Highway 2 corridor from Davenport to Wilbur for lows in the low to mid 30s.
1143 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Visible satellite shows what is left of the cold front that came through yesterday situated down across southwest OK where some towering CU is starting to build. By Sat, upper ridging will continue to build from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies which will continue a warming trend across the Southern/Central Plains. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 80s. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a robust upper trough moving through the Central Plains on Tue. Regardless of which model verifies, the main affect this system will have will be to bring much cooler temps for Tue and especially Wed, maybe even something "fall-like".
1211 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 An area of low pressure across the northern gulf coast will maintain northeast winds around 5 knots overnight, increasing to 5 to 10 knots later today. This will occur along an inverted H925-850 trough associated with the remnants of Nicholas, which will drift W during the day along with the low level circulation. Have made some adjustments to the cloud cover overnight to account for the low cloud development, with sct convection expected to increase especially by afternoon mainly from Lower Toledo Bend Country NE across NCntrl LA.
The low level circulation remains displaced and over SW/S-central LA and has some diurnal type precip activity associated with it.
Temperatures at 2 am were in the mostly in the 50s, except of a few sites that were holding onto a light southeast breeze, retaining temperatures in the lower 60s. Surface analysis showed the area of high pressure that brought the dry airmass into the area centered over lower Michigan. To the west, a lee trough was setting up under the zonal flow aloft in the central and northern plains. Forecast soundings show another day of deep mixing into the low to mid levels, which remain dry due to the limited moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. This should result plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower to mid 80s, while dewpoints hold mostly in the 50s, keeping comfortable humidity levels in place.
Low pressure will move to the northeast Today. Remnants of slow moving Nicholas will continue over Louisiana Today, with a warm front extending east from it. Troughing will extend from the low to the northeast, to this warm frontal boundary, yielding an extended frontal zone. The low to the northeast will continue to track north northeast Friday, while the remnants of Nicholas to the west will move little.
Dry cold front has pushed into southeast Oregon this evening with wind gusts of 20-30 mph. Mostly clear with a few high level clouds moving through with a weak cold front. Surface winds: Northwest 5-15 kt this evening with gusts to 25 kt during a cold frontal passage. A dry cold front will be accompanied by breezy northwest winds tonight. The arrival of cooler air behind the front will result in high temperatures around 5 degrees below normal. Temperatures will warm back to around 5 degrees above normal on Friday as southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Breezy southwest winds are expected in the higher elevations during the afternoon.
High pressure has begun to push eastward towards the Great Lakes, with a cold frontal boundary hanging up and becoming nearly stationary across the Pacific Northwest. By early tomorrow morning, the cold frontal boundary should begin digging to the southeast before stalling out across the Rockie Mountains.
/issued 923 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021/ A weak cold front is working its way into the Mid-South this evening, extending roughly along a Jonesboro-Union City line. This will leave the Mid-South in a somewhat subsident regime tomorrow as the upper-level ridge noses into the region behind the departing low. /issued 317 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021/ Late summer upper level ridging will prevail over the Midsouth into the early weekend, but the weather won't be as hot and dry as that ridging might imply. As the remnants of Tropical Depression Nicholas lift east along the gulf coast, tropical moisture, as represented by precipitable water values of 2+ inches, will build north from the central gulf coast in advance of a weak upper low over east Texas.
242 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 A cold front will settle south of the Mason Dixon line by early Thursday morning.
The passing high pressure does bring light east-southeast flow and moisture flux off of Lake Erie resulting in some scattered to broken clouds across portions of Lower Michigan. With another day of high insolation, daytime high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s for most of southeast Michigan.
Some stratocumulus were just south of the forecast area, near a weak surface inverted trough. High pressure was across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. High pressure will be the dominate feature across central Indiana today, providing dry conditions. Temperatures will be warmer today with weak warm advection as winds become southeasterly today. Increasing dewpoints from the southeasterly flow will keep temperatures warmer than this morning's. On Friday, the weak inverted trough will try and sneak a little farther north, into the area. Some upper ridging will hang around. Thus, while the inverted trough and some instability will be across the southern forecast area, feel that this won't be quite enough to significantly overcome the upper ridging.