Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1136 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Water vapor analysis depicts deep upper trough over the the Great Lakes, slowly pivoting eastward. Upper ridging continues across the western half of the US with our forecast area on the eastern periphery of the ridge. A surface baroclinic zone is draped across western South Dakota with high pressure centered over southern Manitoba. Cool, northwest flow will continue through Tuesday making for a similar day, albeit warmer across northeastern Wyoming.
(Today through Wednesday) The chill is on! Temperatures are in the low to mid 30s at this hour. If those winds can calm for a couple of hours, temperatures should be able to make it into the upper 20s for a large part of the area given dew points are in the lower 20s. Wednesday will be the start of a warming trend for the rest of the week as the deep Great Lakes trough pulls off to the east. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Most of the area will likely get to or just below freezing again Wednesday night.
A ridge will continue to keep the weather quiet and the winds light.
Widespread low to mid 50s are today's highs with some of the higher elevations in N Georgia struggling to get out of the 40s. A Freeze Warning is in effect for Northern and parts of Western Georgia until 8 AM this morning as tonight's overnight lows fall into the low 30s and upper 20s. Temperatures in the low 30s and upper 20s are expected.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Another chilly day is in store as surface ridging stretches from Canada south into TX with mostly cloudy skies remaining due to weak disturbance in the mid levels. Areas of fog and drizzle over the higher terrain will dissipate by afternoon as will scattered rain showers we are seeing currently across the area.
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Deep upper trough remains over the Central Great Lakes region and extends down into the Tennessee Valley. By Thu afternoon, northwest upper flow will still be in place with some upper ridging setting up over the Southern Rockies. There is good model agreement that by Sat evening, another deep upper trough will be digging over the Western CONUS and into the Rockies by Sun afternoon/evening. This will eventually allow a cold front to surge through Sun afternoon into Sun night. GFS is much wetter along the cold front Sun night into Mon compared to the ECMWF, mainly due to the GFS holding more energy back over the Rockies.
(Today and tonight) The low that brought us our rain this past weekend and yesterday is slowly continuing its progression eastward this morning. This activity will continue through the morning hours eventually coming to an end by this afternoon as the low is absorbed by the eastern CONUS troughing. This will make for another cool day across the area with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s.
143 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Upper level ridge will be over the region today and Wednesday with warm and dry weather under mostly clear skies.
High pressure continues the trend of warm temperatures and dry conditions. A strong upper level ridge remains in control of our weather.
(Today and tonight) After a cold start this morning, temperatures will remain well below average for highs this afternoon as our area remains under deep- layer northerly flow on the backside of a large eastern US trough. Therefore, continue to stick to the cooler side of guidance with freezing temperatures expected for a large chunk of northern, central, and south-central OK.
An upper low continues over the eastern Great Lakes this morning with a strong upper ridge over the west. The upper low will not move much through Wednesday night. High pressure continues over the area this morning. Expect freezing temperatures across the north this morning, and with sunny skies, temperatures will climb to the upper 40s to upper 50s this afternoon. Widespread freezing temperatures are anticipated for tonight into Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south and lows are expected to be a bit warmer in the 30s Wednesday night.
Strong ridging over the western US will allow for dry, mild, and warm conditions to persist through the end of the week. An incoming trough will mix things up over the weekend with gusty southwesterly winds, cooler temperatures, and increased precipitation chances accompanying the trough.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1256 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over New Mexico, cutoff from NW flow aloft over the central CONUS. 24-hour MRMS totals suggest all of Southeast New Mexico and the lowlands of West Texas have generally received a quarter of an inch or better, negating fire weather concerns and reducing the rainfall deficit somewhat. Over the next 24 hours, the trough is forecast to open, and pass though the area, clearing most of the CWA by 00Z Wednesday. This will shift better convective chances to the Davis Mtns/Big Bend Tuesday after the trough digs southeast, gradually tapering off through mid-afternoon.
224 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022 High pressure remains in place across the region with continued mild and dry weather expected. However, change is on the way this weekend as there is potential for a strong cold front which could provide much cooler weather, gusty winds, and chances for light valley rainfall and light mountain snowfall. A recurring mild and dry pattern will persist over the next several days as high pressure remains in control across the region.
550 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 The Freeze Warning looks on track with temperatures close or already below freezing across the area. At the surface, low pressure was located over the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Plains. With very low PWATS and subsidence on the backside of the upper low, will keep the forecast dry through tomorrow. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees cooler as winds will be lighter than this morning. Winds will switch out of the west by Wednesday afternoon as the CAA ends, so will go with highs a few degrees warmer. Britt There is good agreement with latest runs of the ensembles that a deep trough will lift out of the eastern CONUS by late week before another trough digs into the West Coast early in the weekend.
537 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today and tonight) A much cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region today behind a cold front.
A deep longwave upper level trough now encompasses the entire eastern half of the country. There's good agreement between MET, MAV and NBM that the freezing temp line should reach as far south as the I-12 corridor in LA and around I-10 in MS. The forecast lows are a smidgen warmer than previous, but that won't change the hazard already in place. That's extremely impressive, if it does in fact occur, considering some locations have over 100 years of data! Cold air mass stays in place through Wednesday as the upper level trough is slow to progress eastward.
611 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 A strong upper level trough continues to sit over the eastern Great Lakes while slowly progressing eastward. Wednesday morning looks to be the coldest with lows in the low 20s expected in southeast Kansas. By daytime Wednesday the upper flow will begin to shift from the north to northwest as ridging builds overhead.
A cold front is moving south through north-central Florida, with dewpoints near freezing across the Panhandle. From synopsis, a cold front will slide southward down Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, then advance through the Keys early Wednesday morning accompanied by a northerly wind shift.
(Today and tonight) A much cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region today behind a cold front. A strong cold frontal passage this morning will lead to widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions through Wednesday morning, with seas building to around 6 feet offshore.
355 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Offshore flow will bring warmer weather through midweek, most noticeable along the coast and over the western valleys.
606 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today through Wednesday) The chill is on! Temperatures are in the low to mid 30s at this hour. If those winds can calm for a couple of hours, temperatures should be able to make it into the upper 20s for a large part of the area given dew points are in the lower 20s. Wednesday will be the start of a warming trend for the rest of the week as the deep Great Lakes trough pulls off to the east. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Most of the area will likely get to or just below freezing again Wednesday night.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 715 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Another chilly day is in store as surface ridging stretches from Canada south into TX with mostly cloudy skies remaining due to weak disturbance in the mid levels. Areas of fog and drizzle over the higher terrain will dissipate by afternoon as will scattered rain showers we are seeing currently across the area.
Afternoon highs will only reach the low to mid 60s, which is around 15 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.
The same pattern continues today with the upper level high over Idaho, and north flow over North Dakota. High temperatures will range from the low 40s in the east to the lower 60s in the west. They are cooler in the east.
506 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Center of the upper level ridge to remain over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies today. Flow around the ridge will result in a northerly aloft for Colorado. The ridge does shift slightly eastward and brings slightly warmer air.
859 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Cold front has pushed into our area this morning with a thin line of pre-frontal showers in place across Manatee/Sarasota counties. This line as well as the front will continue to push through the area today, with cooler and drier air moving into the area behind the front. A cold front will continue to move through the area today, with winds increasing from the NW behind the front. Generally NW to N flow will be in place through much of the rest of the period, with high pressure in place across the waters.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 657 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Another chilly day is in store as surface ridging stretches from Canada south into TX with mostly cloudy skies remaining due to weak disturbance in the mid levels. Areas of fog and drizzle over the higher terrain will dissipate by afternoon as will scattered rain showers we are seeing currently across the area.
Broad area of low pressure moving into the Northeast and associated cold front slides down over the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday.
618 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the pattern today. The western edge of a deep upper trough is still drawing in much cooler than normal air on northerly flow. Winds will shift to the southwest tonight as high pressure exits, but should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when breezes pick up out of the west to northwest. Leaned toward the CONSMOS for the lower end of guidance. Upper level ridging will slowly shift eastward early in the period, bringing warmer temperatures into the region.
Key Points: - Freezing temperatures this morning and again Wednesday morning. Similar synoptic features dominate the upper-level pattern once again this morning as an low spins over the Great Lakes region and ridging centered over the Idaho/Montana Rockies. Cool temperatures will continue to be the theme of the day as high temperatures will only climb into the low to mid 40s despite sunny skies. This will rebound temperatures during the day back into the low to mid 60s with the warmer air staying in central KS. Beyond Wednesday, dry conditions will continue into the weekend as temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s.
Cold front has pushed off the Atlantic coast this morning. Deep upper trough remains entrenched across the Great Lakes and is expected to move little through the day. Pressure ridge over the northern Plains will build south and extend east into the southeast US. The mos has trended slightly cooler but appears a little warmer than NBM. although modest air mass modification expected so max temps Wednesday should be slightly warmer. Highs in the low 60s. Maybe more favorable radiational cooling conditions Wednesday night with a weaker surface pressure gradient although there may be some high thin clouds ahead of a short wave trough moving through the long wave trough into the southeast. closer to the 25th percentile in the low to mid 30s and frost may be more widespread. A very deep upper level trough will remain over the Eastern U.
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today and tonight) The low that brought us our rain this past weekend and yesterday is slowly continuing its progression eastward this morning. This activity will continue through the morning hours eventually coming to an end by this afternoon as the low is absorbed by the eastern CONUS troughing. This will make for another cool day across the area with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s.
Cooler with a chance of rain this weekend. High clouds are streaming north ahead of the low into NorCal, and skies are partly cloudy across the region early this morning. Warmer and drier conditions lie ahead for interior NorCal for the remainder of the the week as high pressure strengthens and light to moderate offshore flow develops.
304 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Center of the upper level ridge to remain over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies today. Flow around the ridge will result in a northerly aloft for Colorado. The ridge does shift slightly eastward and brings slightly warmer air.
559 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 The cloud cover in the northeast was a bit more robust through the evening hours than originally forecast, resulting in temps trending 3-5F warmer.
602 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today and tonight) After a cold start this morning, temperatures will remain well below average for highs this afternoon as our area remains under deep- layer northerly flow on the backside of a large eastern US trough. Therefore, continue to stick to the cooler side of guidance with freezing temperatures expected for a large chunk of northern, central, and south-central OK.
The center of the high is now directly over western Montana, and with it, another another hazy day with poor air quality.
An unseasonable cold air mass continued to feed into our area on low level west to northwest flow around the area of low pressure.
The changes to our weather include stronger winds, much cooler temperatures, and measurable, but light, precipitation. An upper ridge will maintain its position across the western United States for the duration of the short term period.
A ridging pattern will lead to seasonal temperatures and dry conditions for Northwest California. An upper level trough is expected to drop south over the area into the weekend bringing cool and windy conditions with potential for light rain. The trough that aided in deepening the marine layer over this past weekend continues to dissipate to our north. An upper level ridge will move toward the Pacific Northwest and influence weather conditions in Northwest California for the rest of the work week. This pattern is expected to bring slightly warmer and drier conditions back to interior regions.
Discussion: Satellite WV imagery and surface observations show the anomalous upper low across the Great Lakes extending southward through the Ohio Valley. Relatively strong pressure gradient across our region has kept winds elevated overnight as high pressure builds into the forecast area. As this longwave troughing amplifies across the Appalachians today, very cold temperatures are expected. The Great Lakes moisture contribution will be enough to aid in this additional cloud cover, and perhaps a few flurries across the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The trough axis shifts eastward late tonight with a clearing sky and lighter winds.
Freeze warning has expired and most surface observations outside of the mountains have come back up above freezing this morning. Discussion: Satellite WV imagery and surface observations show the anomalous upper low across the Great Lakes extending southward through the Ohio Valley. Relatively strong pressure gradient across our region has kept winds elevated overnight as high pressure builds into the forecast area. As this longwave troughing amplifies across the Appalachians today, very cold temperatures are expected. The Great Lakes moisture contribution will be enough to aid in this additional cloud cover, and perhaps a few flurries across the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The trough axis shifts eastward late tonight with a clearing sky and lighter winds.
155 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Quiet weather is expected in the short term thanks to high pressure over our area. Synoptically speaking, a high pressure system at the surface will keep our weather quiet for today and tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, in the 20s areawide. This could be partly due to the winds shifting to the south-southwest as the high moves over our area tonight.
1148 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Another chilly day is in store as surface ridging stretches from Canada south into TX with mostly cloudy skies remaining due to weak disturbance in the mid levels. Areas of fog and drizzle over the higher terrain will dissipate by afternoon as will scattered rain showers we are seeing currently across the area.
1259 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today through Wednesday) The chill is on! Temperatures are in the low to mid 30s at this hour. If those winds can calm for a couple of hours, temperatures should be able to make it into the upper 20s for a large part of the area given dew points are in the lower 20s. Wednesday will be the start of a warming trend for the rest of the week as the deep Great Lakes trough pulls off to the east. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Most of the area will likely get to or just below freezing again Wednesday night.
1213 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 The cloud cover in the northeast was a bit more robust through the evening hours than originally forecast, resulting in temps trending 3-5F warmer.
251 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 An upper level low will bring clouds and cold air tonight into Wednesday with some areas seeing some rain or snow showers. An upper level low will continue to provide a west to northwest flow across the region. 850 mb temperatures aren't in the ideal range for upslope snow, so only expect some light precipitation which could vary between rain or snow in the low level elevations, but mainly snow in the higher elevations. The upper level low continues to propel itself slowly northeastward late Wednesday night and morphing into an open trough.
The forecast remains on track with high pressure in place across the region. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern today. The western edge of a deep upper trough is still drawing in much cooler than normal air on northerly flow. Winds will shift to the southwest tonight as high pressure exits, but should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when breezes pick up out of the west to northwest. Leaned toward the CONSMOS for the lower end of guidance. Upper level ridging will slowly shift eastward early in the period, bringing warmer temperatures into the region.
338 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Final Days of Fall Storm -- Deep and vertically stacked low pressure cyclone is centered over the eastern Huron basin today. Now through tonight, a trowal airstream originating over New England is wrapping back to the west side of the low, over our area. This layer has an upward vertical component of motion and is within the DGZ, so more of a light stratiform rain is expected tonight over the whole area, in addition to the lower-level lake-effect convective bands which are focused west of US-131. In the higher elevations of northern Osceola County (and more so to the north of Osceola), some wet snow accumulations are again possible tonight.
Discussion: A cold afternoon with highs in the low to mid 40s will become a cold tonight as Canadian high pressure builds into the area.
242 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 High pressure continues to build in bringing very dry and much cooler weather through midweek with some morning frost inland. Low pressure may bring a chance of rain by late weekend. For this reason have stuck with the fairly tightly clustered temperature guidance rather than some of the lower NBM percentiles. Light west winds on Wednesday, which may actually end up being a few degrees cooler than this afternoon turned out and some 10 degrees below climatology. Cooler temps will persist through the end of the work week as an upper level trough starts to lift Wednesday night.
Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the short-term as a high pressure ridge stays in place over the Northern Rockies.
The eastern trough/western ridge pattern continues across the CONUS this afternoon with northwest flow present over the Plains. Clear skies and light winds will allow lows to fall into the low 20s and upper teens by sunrise Wednesday. A warming trend commences Wednesday afternoon as the blocking pattern begins to breakdown.
226 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a low spinning over the Great Lakes region, with an amplified ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over the western Dakotas, resulting in light southeasterly winds across much of our CWA.
The low-level airmass within the ridge axis is extremely dry with dew points in the lower single digits to near 10 above. This ridge axis will continue to slide across the area tonight, yielding calm winds and clear skies.
Strong ridging over the western US will allow for dry, mild, and warm conditions to persist through the end of the week. An incoming trough will mix things up over the weekend with gusty southwesterly winds, cooler temperatures, and increased precipitation chances accompanying the trough. Ridging will continue through the week before active weather returns going into the weekend.
1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today and tonight) The low that brought us our rain this past weekend and yesterday is slowly continuing its progression eastward this morning. This activity will continue through the morning hours eventually coming to an end by this afternoon as the low is absorbed by the eastern CONUS troughing. This will make for another cool day across the area with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s.
With the slow-moving deep upper trough parked over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, continued cold air advection and radiational cooling will once again provide unseasonably cold temperatures tonight, with lows mainly in the 20s across the region.
237 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 After today, the strong ridge of warm, high pressure begins to weaken a bit, due to the the influence of the approaching cold front from the Yukon Territory.
354 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through the weekend. Large low pressure over the Great Lakes will remain nearly stationary as an omega block pattern persists over the U. The center of a Canadian high pressure is expected to slide south across the Northern Plains towards the Arklatex region tonight. At the surface, high pressure will build into the forecast area through the short term period. A closed low at 500 mb will continue its residence over the Great Lakes. Broad troughing will persist over the southeastern states while the closed low remains over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be bewteen 1 and 3 degrees Celsius, which, despite plentiful sunshine, will be supportive of high temperatures only in the low to mid 60s.
the forecast area remains in between an upper level trough over the Great Lakes and an upper level ridge to our west. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 50s across the eastern portion of the forecast area to the middle 60s across far eastern Colorado. warmer air overspreads the area with high temperatures warming back into the lower to middle 70s.