Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
348 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 A strong cold front, located near along I-44 in Oklahoma, will continue to push rather quickly south tonight. A mid and upper level trough will lift across West Texas this evening and then across Oklahoma and northern Texas late overnight/Saturday morning. Before the precipitation transitions to snow this evening/overnight, there will be the potential for mainly light freezing rain and sleet.
Highs continuing to warm, despite increased cloud cover, reaching the low to mid 80s across the area.
With this in mind, have nudged the High Wind Warning start time to now. GOES-16 upper level water vapor imagery shows another upper level trough centered off the northwestern coast of the CONUS.
551 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Cold front has just passed south of LBB and will continue to push south eventually clearing the entire area by roughly 6:30 pm. Initially, temperatures will be above freezing, however as temperatures fall snow showers will be possible which may also reduce visibilities down to a few miles as blowing snow will be a concern this evening and into Saturday morning. /issued 316 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/ The upper trough that has been digging our way across the Desert Southwest is now on our doorstep, and it is closing off. Models indicate a closed low at H7 traveling across roughly the northern Permian Basin tonight. In conjunction, a strong cold front will be driving southward.
As the cold air moves in, the shallow nature of the initial push should result in a changeover to freezing rain/drizzle then sleet late tonight, then finally snow Saturday as precip wraps around the exiting upper low.
In those areas, elevated showers and thunderstorms continue due to isentropic lift across the warm frontal baroclinic zone. Mid/upper level storm system, over north Mexico/southwest TX beginning to lift out as energy transitions northeast from the base of the trough.
445 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 GOES-16 upper level water vapor imagery shows another upper level trough centered off the northwestern coast of the CONUS.
215 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 Overview: A potent upper level trough currently approaching west Texas will progress across the Southern Plains tonight, then lift northeast through the central MS River Valley (Sat) into the OH Valley (Sat night). Through Tonight: As of 21Z, light precipitation -- associated with a shear axis progressing eastward from the Rockies onto the High Plains -- has already begun to wane, and will continue to diminish from W-E through 00Z. Sat-Sat night: On Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies assoc/w subsidence /height rises/ in the wake of the upper trough progressing east across the Southern Plains -- followed by increasing upper level cloud cover late Sat afternoon into Sat night as flow aloft backs to the W/SW over the Rockies and High Plains.
337 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 Currently, recent 88D radar returns, GOES satellite imagery and near/real time data indicate that CWA noting areas of snow and blowing snow, primarily south of a Lamar to Colorado City line this afternoon in wake of northerly component surface surge that moved across region earlier today and as closed upper low shifts from far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon into West Texas this evening.
548 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 /00Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south across the terminals this evening and overnight, with frontal passage expected at KABI around 02Z, KSJT around 06Z and the far southern terminals between 08Z and 09Z. Wintry Precipitation and Another Cold Front. The upper-level storm system and its associated cold front, which we've been highlighting recently, is poised to bring changes to West Central Texas weather tonight and Saturday. Then, as the upper system moves east tonight, the cold front will move into West Central Texas and bring gusty winds from the north, low clouds, and much cooler air. Nevertheless, watch for slick spots on bridges and overpasses. For tomorrow, surface winds from the north will continue to bring cooler air in West Central Texas; thus, temperatures will be much closer to usual early January temperatures.
Colder air at the surface has advanced slightly quicker than anticipated, and likewise transitioned the rain to freezing rain line quicker. At this time, the freezing line stretches from Kirksville to KCI to Emporia. Ongoing accumulating ice will continue west of this line, with the transition to freezing rain gradually occurring from west to east during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Currently, the highest snowfall totals are projected from KC to Bethany, with widespread 3 to 5 inches expected within this corridor. With respect to the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall, surface warm front has slid just south of the forecast area.
20z surface analysis had high pressure over eastern ND pushing drier air into the CWA.
427 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 Overview: A potent upper level trough currently approaching west Texas will progress across the Southern Plains tonight, then lift northeast through the central MS River Valley (Sat) into the OH Valley (Sat night). Through Tonight: As of 21Z, light precipitation -- associated with a shear axis progressing eastward from the Rockies onto the High Plains -- has already begun to wane, and will continue to diminish from W-E through 00Z. Sat-Sat night: On Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies assoc/w subsidence /height rises/ in the wake of the upper trough progressing east across the Southern Plains -- followed by increasing upper level cloud cover late Sat afternoon into Sat night as flow aloft backs to the W/SW over the Rockies and High Plains.
Forecast soundings continue to show helicities off the charts, mainly due to the low-level jet that's going to ramp up overnight (this is also the instigator for the Wind Advisory). That said, combined with the atrocious amount of forcing along the front as the upper ridge swings negative in the morning, we're definitely going to run the risk of damaging winds. Tomorrow, a strong cold front will push through Middle Tennessee with a line of convection likely to form along the front and track across the mid state beginning after 12Z.
Currently, recent 88D radar returns, GOES satellite imagery and near/real time data indicate that CWA noting areas of snow and blowing snow, primarily south of a Lamar to Colorado City line this afternoon in wake of northerly component surface surge that moved across region earlier today and as closed upper low shifts from far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon into West Texas this evening.
This afternoon a cold front is stretched from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle. An area of low pressure is over West OK and Northeast TX and a dryline extends to the south of the low.
/issued 316 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/ The upper trough that has been digging our way across the Desert Southwest is now on our doorstep, and it is closing off. Models indicate a closed low at H7 traveling across roughly the northern Permian Basin tonight. In conjunction, a strong cold front will be driving southward.
Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/far northwest Arkansas as of 9 PM. Focus shifts to the winter weather potential tonight into Saturday as vigorous upper trough swings through the area. Freezing line has pushed into Pawnee/Osage counties this evening. Also a tenth of inch or less of freezing rain still possible before the transition to sleet then snow.
Strong convective inhibition as evident by 00Z CRP sounding has been strong enough to limit convective potential over south Texas this evening as the cold front moves toward the coast.
The lowest wind chills will occur in western Yuma County. Overview: A potent upper level trough currently approaching west Texas will progress across the Southern Plains tonight, then lift northeast through the central MS River Valley (Sat) into the OH Valley (Sat night). Through Tonight: As of 21Z, light precipitation -- associated with a shear axis progressing eastward from the Rockies onto the High Plains -- has already begun to wane, and will continue to diminish from W-E through 00Z. Sat-Sat night: On Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies assoc/w subsidence /height rises/ in the wake of the upper trough progressing east across the Southern Plains -- followed by increasing upper level cloud cover late Sat afternoon into Sat night as flow aloft backs to the W/SW over the Rockies and High Plains.
As of 230 AM freezing tempertures were noted from Tatum-Seminole-Andrews with Lamesa-Tarzan not too far off. By 10 AM most all areas that have or will received snowfall are forecast to above freezing.
1205 AM PST Sat Jan 11 2020 Dry northwest flow aloft will bring cooler than average weather through next Friday.
The first being tonight/overnight and the second on Saturday afternoon/night as the southern stream of an upper trough lifts north from the desert southwest. As the first round comes to an end Saturday morning, there could be a window of light freezing drizzle as the system exits, which may produce a light glaze of ice. There are still some model differences on how far east the low will progress, which may bring future changes to snow totals. However, with the new NAM tracking the low further east, totals may need to be lowered.
Current upper air sounding shows this well with dry air at the low levels. Ultimately, snow accumulations tonight in the Treasure Valley will come down to whether or not the precipitation can reach the ground before evaporating and the lower levels can moisten up. Mostly VFR with areas of IFR/LIFR in snow and freezing fog.
Warm moist air continues to increase over the CWA this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system. In those areas, elevated showers and thunderstorms continue due to isentropic lift across the warm frontal baroclinic zone. Mid/upper level storm system, over north Mexico/southwest TX beginning to lift out as energy transitions northeast from the base of the trough.
945 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2020 Dry northwest flow aloft will bring cooler than average weather through next Friday.
Overview: A potent upper level trough currently approaching west Texas will progress across the Southern Plains tonight, then lift northeast through the central MS River Valley (Sat) into the OH Valley (Sat night). Through Tonight: As of 21Z, light precipitation -- associated with a shear axis progressing eastward from the Rockies onto the High Plains -- has already begun to wane, and will continue to diminish from W-E through 00Z. Sat-Sat night: On Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies assoc/w subsidence /height rises/ in the wake of the upper trough progressing east across the Southern Plains -- followed by increasing upper level cloud cover late Sat afternoon into Sat night as flow aloft backs to the W/SW over the Rockies and High Plains.
243 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Cooler temperatures and drier air are on tap today behind last night's cold front. A moderate to strong gusty northwest wind will continue through this afternoon as another surge of high pressure builds across the area, which will lead to an elevated fire weather danger across the southern Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.
200 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Frontogenetically driven bands of snow have pushed east/south of the local area as associated northeast-southeast running sfc front is nudged by approaching upper level trough. Some hints in bufkit soundings there could be brief period of freezing drizzle before pcpn ends, but no evidence via observations and threat looks minimal at this time. The deformation region to the west of the low still gets going later today, but passes mostly across IL and southeast WI.
1251 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Rain will scatter this evening but return in force later Saturday as low pressure advances on the region bringing gusty wind as well. Anomalously deep warm, moist air continues to advect into the region in strong southwest flow ahead of the main trough. Ridging across the eastern CONUS will amplify tonight in response to the aforementioned trough as it digs into the Mississippi Valley. By Saturday morning the aforementioned trough will be digging across the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the low advances northeast, precipitation will gradually move across the CWA from west to east. Convection-allowing models suggest a line of moderate to heavy rain along the cold front boundary as it crosses Saturday evening.
1044 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Mean layer analyses place a deep ridge complex centered over the western North Atlantic near Bermuda. The cooler waters north of the island chain have decoupled. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the western North Atlantic supports fresh to strong easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
Forecast soundings continue to show helicities off the charts, mainly due to the low-level jet that's going to ramp up overnight (this is also the instigator for the Wind Advisory). That said, combined with the atrocious amount of forcing along the front as the upper ridge swings negative in the morning, we're definitely going to run the risk of damaging winds. Winds will further increase as the surface pressure gradient tightens up ahead of tomorrow's cold front. The storms will make slow progress across the mid state, with the cold front arriving at the Cumberland Plateau around 21Z.
Cooler temperatures and locally breezy conditions will be seen over the next several days as an active, but dry weather pattern set up over the region. Winds are expected to continue to develop across the eastern Sierra ridgetops tonight, but do not anticipate downslope winds even reaching mid slopes. A cold front forecast to pass through the area late Saturday morning through the evening will bring enhanced northerly breezes primarily to areas across south central Nevada and gusty west winds to the Western Mojave Desert.
borsum Wind will be the greatest concern today through Saturday morning, as lee troffing develops once again. Mainly expect to see accumulating snow in the high country, as moist Pacific flow is lifted up the mountain. Low temps tonight will be significantly warmer than last night, thanks to windy conditions in the west. Temps on Saturday will also be on the warmer side due to continued downslope westerly flow.
Colder air at the surface has advanced slightly quicker than anticipated, and likewise transitioned the rain to freezing rain line quicker. At this time, the freezing line stretches from Kirksville to KCI to Emporia. Ongoing accumulating ice will continue west of this line, with the transition to freezing rain gradually occurring from west to east during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Currently, the highest snowfall totals are projected from KC to Bethany, with widespread 3 to 5 inches expected within this corridor. With respect to the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall, surface warm front has slid just south of the forecast area. Periods of freezing drizzle mixed with snow will likely continue through the early parts of the forecast period except up in NW Missouri where precip appears to have ended for now.
945 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 Overview: A potent upper level trough currently approaching west Texas will progress across the Southern Plains tonight, then lift northeast through the central MS River Valley (Sat) into the OH Valley (Sat night). Through Tonight: As of 21Z, light precipitation -- associated with a shear axis progressing eastward from the Rockies onto the High Plains -- has already begun to wane, and will continue to diminish from W-E through 00Z. Sat-Sat night: On Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies assoc/w subsidence /height rises/ in the wake of the upper trough progressing east across the Southern Plains -- followed by increasing upper level cloud cover late Sat afternoon into Sat night as flow aloft backs to the W/SW over the Rockies and High Plains.
/22/ Warm moist air continues to increase over the CWA this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system. In those areas, elevated showers and thunderstorms continue due to isentropic lift across the warm frontal baroclinic zone. Mid/upper level storm system, over north Mexico/southwest TX beginning to lift out as energy transitions northeast from the base of the trough.
1132 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Strong and gusty south to southeast winds will persist overnight until passage of an active cold front. Strong and gusty south to southeast winds will persist overnight until passage of an active cold front. This afternoon a cold front is stretched from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle. An area of low pressure is over West OK and Northeast TX and a dryline extends to the south of the low.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis showing layered FGEN continuing to stream out ahead of the Dakotas trough. Later tonight, the more southern stream takes over as forcing drops to the south ahead of the trough. Colder air drops in under the ridge and we see wind chills dropping off to minus 25 to minus 30 over west central MN later tonight into Saturday morning. The period will commence with the broad impactful cold front over the East Coast and high pressure over the lower-mid Mississippi River Valley regions. Aloft, broad ridging sits over the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians while a longwave trough axis sits over the Plains.
Snow amounts will likely fall shy of warning criteria, but will keep warning going due to combo of snow with freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Tonight-Sunday: Temperature forecast tonight is a quite challenging, with light winds as ridge axis moves through early this evening with little in the way of clouds.
A period of freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet, is expected across extreme northern Indiana through southern Lower Michigan.
520 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 An upper level trough is located across Texas early this morning. Temperatures across extreme southeastern Kansas are currently in the middle 20s with temperatures around the freezing mark along the Highway 65 corridor. The freezing line will continue to track east across the area this morning. Light to moderate rainfall continues across south central Missouri, with light freezing rain/freezing drizzle currently occurring across southeastern Kansas into western Missouri. With temperatures falling into the middle 20s with gusty winds, flash freezing of wet roads will also be possible. The light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue to occur this morning. As the upper level trough starts to move into the area, colder temperatures aloft will spread into the area and a band of snow will develop and move across the area.
Additional moisture will move in late this morning and early afternoon as the first (of several) trough axis moves into the Great Basin. This orographic precipitation will be aided by dynamic energy as the trough passes through our CWA late this afternoon/evening and again Sunday morning. On Sunday, we then enter quasi-zonal flow for a short period ahead of the next incoming trough.
The region will be between high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west Today. The activity associated with the weakening cold front will reach western counties around midnight.
With temperatures falling to or just below the freezing mark, slippery areas are expected on some of the area bridges, overpasses and road surfaces with hazardous driving conditions. /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level low moving into the Big Country, and radar showed areas of precipitation moving into the Big Country. Precipitation should end by 9 am as the low weakens into an open trough and moves east of the region.
/Issued 352 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ Vapor imagery depicts impressive trough axis extending through the western Southern Plains with compact PV max currently north of the Big Bend region. Focus through today will be on developing / expanding precip shield as aforementioned trough lifts into the Missouri Valley by this evening. The sfc freezing line will make a bit more eastward push into SE OK this morning as precip expands back into the region. Recent AMDAR flight soundings through TUL support model analysis of a pronounced warm layer currently in place which will keep initial precip types of frozen rain to sleet before the column cools sufficiently as the trough axis nears. Additionally, the advisory was extended into portions of SE OK and trends will be followed should frozen precip expand further into the higher terrain of SE OK.
941 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 There were few changes made to the forecast this morning, but the biggest change was to extend the High Surf Advisory through 10PM this evening. Highs today will be 10+ degrees above average, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Coastal terminals will have the highest chance of seeing any showers.
352 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Vapor imagery depicts impressive trough axis extending through the western Southern Plains with compact PV max currently north of the Big Bend region. Focus through today will be on developing / expanding precip shield as aforementioned trough lifts into the Missouri Valley by this evening. The sfc freezing line will make a bit more eastward push into SE OK this morning as precip expands back into the region. Recent AMDAR flight soundings through TUL support model analysis of a pronounced warm layer currently in place which will keep initial precip types of frozen rain to sleet before the column cools sufficiently as the trough axis nears. Additionally, the advisory was extended into portions of SE OK and trends will be followed should frozen precip expand further into the higher terrain of SE OK.
544 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 The arctic ridge axis overhead this morning will move off east after sunrise and south winds will commence. A warm front will lift through wrn Nebraska and into ncntl Nebraska Sunday.
The air mass behind the cold front will bring in some cold air, yet temperatures will be near normal. By the beginning of the week, the Mid-South returns to southwest flow aloft and a weak warm front moves through the area which allows the temperatures to warm up again. This warm front is ahead of a couple of low pressure systems that will bring moisture back into the area.
442 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Frontogenetically driven bands of snow have pushed east/south of the local area as associated northeast-southeast running sfc front is nudged by approaching upper level trough. Some hints in bufkit soundings there could be brief period of freezing drizzle before pcpn ends, but no evidence via observations and threat looks minimal at this time. The deformation region to the west of the low still gets going later today, but passes mostly across IL and southeast WI. N/NE winds gusting occasionally up to around 20 kts will weaken this evening as high pressure builds in from the north.
/issued 400 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ A sharp upper trough was in the process of shifting off to the east of the area, but not before generating a couple of bands of snow that have translated southeastward across much of the CWA. Although the snow is coming to an end, and totals were relatively light, we do anticipate slick spots on the roadways this morning as temperatures fall well below the freezing mark. Since temperatures were close to the freezing mark when the snow fell, many roadways were initially wet, but now that temperatures are tumbling through the 20s, they will inevitably freeze up.
As the lee side trough develops through today in Montana, the pressure gradient between the high to the east and this will support moderate wind of 10 to 25 mph across the region. Weak warm advection will support high temperatures into the lower 20s west to the single digits east central.