Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BECAUSE OF THE SUNNY SKIES. LEANED ON THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GFS/GFS MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST WAVE/THERMAL TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTH DAKOTA/BORDERLAND BY 12Z THURS.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH DEEPENING A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE U. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND OTHER BITS OF ENERGY.
SFC DATA SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINAS SW TO S CENTRAL GA TO SRN AL AND MS.
536 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2015 DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS IS RESULTING IN ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN SURFACE WINDS TO INHIBIT MIXING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH LOW-MID 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A STRONG/DRY COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. RESULTING HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 12-15 DEG COOLER ON THU. WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OFFER AT LEAST A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WHILE THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL LURKING TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
1206 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH.
1049 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE UPSTATE.
747 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
RIDGE/CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH AND DIRECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN/MID- ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
713 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
BUT MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST/CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOLER SIDE. KMD 213 PM CDT AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE MID AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUES IT'S SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHEASTWARD. SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WE DIDN'T SEE A CHANCE IN TEMPS TODAY IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING BRANCHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISS VALLEY. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MUCH WARMER RIVERS/MARSHY AREAS WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH DEEPENING A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE U. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND OTHER BITS OF ENERGY.
923 PM MST TUE OCT 13 2015 A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WITHIN THIS BAND WERE RUNNING 10 DEGREES WARMER ON AVERAGE AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OUR CWA BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
WEAK WAA AT 925 MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
/issued 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/ An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with a cut off low off the southern California coast.
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE COAST.
1010 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
818 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST BLENDS INDICATE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THERE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.
917 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015 An upper level ridge will begin to strengthen over the next several days bringing a return to warm and dry weather. The ridge is expected to shift east of the area by the weekend which will bring increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and a chance of rain.
The troughing over the east and ridging over the west will both become stronger by the end of the week.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 68 39 67 / 0 0 0 0.
Area of high pressure across the region has left the CWA dry and calm with readings peaking from the lower 70s east central to upper 70s north central Kansas. For Wednesday, the ridge axis remains anchored over the dry northwest flow aloft. Therefore the rangeland fire danger index will lower to the high category.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TROF IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY.
This will drive another weak cold front south across the area on Wednesday. Despite the approaching cold front, skies will remain clear and the wind will slacken enough to allow some decoupling to take place across the CWA.
755 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 AVIATION CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
601 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 Upper level trof/low along the Quebec/Ontario province line will pull away from IL through tonight taking its low clouds in NE IL with it. Weak high pressure ridge of 1018 mb over the plains will settle into the MO valley on Wed morning. Temperatures should cool close to the dewpoints in the lower 40s for lows overnight. Stayed close to MET/MAV guidance lows in the lower 40s overnight across central IL with Galesburg the coolest at 39F and Lawrenceville the mildest at 44F.
BUT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TOMORROW-THU AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST A BIT.
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PATTERN CARVED OUT BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OF LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APALACHEANS AND INTO THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF FLORIDA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1031 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
911 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING COOLER AIR WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT SITS ACRS EXTREME S CNTL LA WESTWARD JUST OFF THE SW LA/SE TX COAST.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
634 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 THE CONUS IS CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT NORTH TEXAS WEATHER IS BEING CONTROLLED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED AT THE SURFACE AND CENTERED RIGHT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN URBAN AREAS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE CA COAST. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD DOWN INTO EASTERN NM WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK IN TO A WARMING PATTERN SHORTLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SUN AFTERNOON AND FINALLY OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
These clouds have resulted in temperatures being held in the lower to mid 60s in the north, though they could go up a few degrees over the next couple of hours. For tonight, high pressure will still be west of the area and winds will stay up in the 3-5 knot range. Lows will still drop into the lower to mid 40s with some upper 30s in the traditional cool spots. Highs Wednesday will be a couple degrees warmer than today, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT. BUT IT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHALLOW AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE DELAYED BY THE MOUNTAINS. PREFER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW/MID 50S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON THICKNESSES AROUND 1365M.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 68 39 67 / 0 0 0 0.
00Z DENVER RAOB MEASURED A FREEZING LEVEL AT 14200 FT MSL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED 1012MB LOW IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA. ANOTHER CALM AND QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER CALM AND QUIET NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS IS RESULTING IN ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN SURFACE WINDS TO INHIBIT MIXING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH LOW-MID 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A STRONG/DRY COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. RESULTING HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 12-15 DEG COOLER ON THU. WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OFFER AT LEAST A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WHILE THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
851 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015 GRADUALLY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL COOL OFF THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE AND SHOULD HELP BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN THING THAT NEEDED TO BE UPDATED WAS THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS THEY HAVE RECOVERED QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST (BACK INTO THE LOW 40S). TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 731 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POOL OF MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WAS CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1100 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 High pressure will continue to build into the region from the northwest overnight resulting in some rather chilly temperatures by dawn Wednesday. Upper level trof/low along the Quebec/Ontario province line will pull away from IL through tonight taking its low clouds in NE IL with it. Weak high pressure ridge of 1018 mb over the plains will settle into the MO valley on Wed morning. Temperatures should cool close to the dewpoints in the lower 40s for lows overnight. Stayed close to MET/MAV guidance lows in the lower 40s overnight across central IL with Galesburg the coolest at 39F and Lawrenceville the mildest at 44F.
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK FORCING AND ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS NOTED JUST UPSTREAM MOVING INTO THE REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND SWING UP INTO CANADA WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST. AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS/WEAK-ISH FORCING WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. COLD NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER ONTARIO.
FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP FOR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT COOLER AIR WILL SEEP AT LEAST THROUGH MILES CITY IF NOT NEAR BILLINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LOWS NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. FRIES THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
446 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
THINK WESTERN COUNTIES AND/OR SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL SEE FIRST SHRA IN OUR CWA. WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. CL WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WY WITH A LOBE OF VORT APPARENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW OVER SW WY. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD OPEN THIS EVENING AND DRIFT EAST THUS EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS MONTANA OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SAT WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SO MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
355 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MORNING. PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTH.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
244 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO START OFF DRY WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AND WILL REBOUND ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 80S. CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS EVIDENT AROUND AN BROAD OFFSHORE RIDGE TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS AND OPENS UP AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL STRETCH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
CURRENTLY THERE IS COLD FRONT OVER DAKOTAS THAT WILL MOVE THIS WAY AND BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT.
552 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MAN AND WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN CANADIAN COAST BY SUN. REINFORCING TROUGH OVER SASK/MAN SAT WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY SUN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND THE LOWER KEYS WERE DETECTED BY THE RADAR WITH A TRACE BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT AND OUR RAIN GAUGE IN THE BACKYARD. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CONUS KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR OUR AREA. WITH PATCHES OF HUMIDITY IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING BY THE KEYS.
MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND THEN IS TIMING COLD FRONT/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MID WEST WITH PCPN ACTIVITY TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY.
As a cold front makes its way southward into the area Friday evening into Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and along the cold front, providing the potential for flash flooding across these same areas. As the day progresses, the low level circulation over the western Permian Basin is expected to move westward, allowing for increased low level moisture into the area.
At the surface, a cold front stretching roughly from northern Minnesota southwest into northeastern CO. Ahead of the cold front, lee troughing will allow south/southeast winds to develop at surface in our area. This will help the low levels quickly recover from last night's convective overturning. Models show ML CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg by late afternoon in our area, and remaining greater than 1500 J/kg during the overnight hours ahead of the cold front as it moves southward.
127 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL CREATE TROUGHING OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED S/WV.
415 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BROAD TROUGH IS LITTERED WITH SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND BOUNDARIES. AND SEEMINGLY ENTRANCED ON QUICKLY SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. SO AS FORCING FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGHING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK TO FAVOR AREAS NEARER THE LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
447 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY.
A NEW SHORT WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR LAST HURRAH OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR A WHILE.
COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
155 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER, AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT.
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK.