Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aside from possible patchy morning fog this morning, mainly across our southwestern counties, warmer than usual temperatures will continue. Highs today, in the 80s, will be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer that usual.
331 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 The short term forecast remains on track with high pressure to the west and gusty winds across the gap areas this morning. Temps and winds will drop off rapidly tonight as a cold front moves in from the north. A cooler day is expected on Thursday as the arctic air pushes in post frontal.
Once precipitation moves out of southeastern MO by midday, dry and warmer conditions expected with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s as clouds scatter out from west to east. In the meantime, the next system will slide east towards forecast area with strong cold front moving into northwestern Missouri by daybreak on Thursday.
Tonight, it will be mostly clear with an increase in cloud coverage towards daybreak Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front is expected to move through the area Thursday. High pressure will build into the area after the cold front as colder air moves into the area.
Winds will be southwesterly today, pushing highs into the 60s for one last time before the pattern shifts cooler for the weekend. Overnight lows are only forecast to drop into the low-mid 40s. A surface cold front will slide through on Thursday morning, ushering in strong north winds.
Stratocu and chc of light snow will be over NW MN on the SW side of the departing upper level trough in Ontario.
0 kft will make it difficult for the low levels to saturate. Any flakes south of I-69 this morning will be partially melted and quickly liquefy on contact while further north, some trace accumulations (perhaps a few tenths) may arise on grassy/elevated surfaces where sub-freezing surface temps have cropped up overnight. Veering winds to the SSW will guide low-level WAA late this morning, further modifying the lowest few thousand feet. Temps should exceed 40F late this afternoon with persistent cloudiness keeping overnight lows above freezing into Thursday. Modest PV anomaly will enhance the northern stream jet and drive a upper level low through Lake Superior supporting intensification of a open surface wave on Thursday. The low will undergo rapid deepening under favorable cyclonic flow field.
Calm winds this morning should increase through midday, with position of ridge axis just north of Cape Canaveral.
Temperatures will be warmer on Thursday, as a storm stystem brings a chance for showers to the area. A weak trof wave passed through the region overnight, this brought some light sprinkles to some locations around central Illinois. This, in combination with the already reduced ceilings, will hold the low cloud coverage in place for today. This will ushered additional moisture into the region, as well as aid in warmer lows. This will allow a larger Low pressure system in southern Canada, to push a frontal boundary into the region. The Low in the sw US, will push rain and snow into the Rockies late Wednesday.
A more potent system is expected to impact the area starting Thursday with stronger moisture return ahead and along a cold front bringing in rain from the west to southwest with a few rumbles of thunder being possible.
10 inches are possible mainly north of M-46, which would translate to an inch or less of snow there if the higher QPF amounts verify. The approach of a northern stream trough and cold front, becoming increasingly coupled with the left-exit region of a southern stream jet streak, will favor rain development as early as Thursday afternoon, but more likely in the evening.
524 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Water vapor shows short wave ridge crossing the northern Rockies into the northern plains, with dense mid/upper level cloud cover associated with chinook arch extending through our northern zones. Upper level cut-off low is situated just offshore the CA coast. At the surface, lee trof is advancing into eastern MT/eastern WY. Upper ridge passing overhead along with surface trof pushing through the Dakotas will result in much warmer and drier conditions today. Cold front will then sweep through the area tonight, with winds shifting to the northwest and becoming a bit gusty.
The short term forecast remains on track with high pressure to the west and gusty winds across the gap areas this morning. Temps and winds will drop off rapidly tonight as a cold front moves in from the north. A cooler day is expected on Thursday as the arctic air pushes in post frontal.
423 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 An area of low pressure crossing southern Canada today will bring southwest to westerly winds into this CWA. Western and central South Dakota could see highs in the low 60s. A cold front will slide southward across the region late this afternoon through Thursday morning. There is some support for a brief period of freezing rain and sleet. Cooler temperatures, along with breezy to windy conditions are expected on Thursday.
From synopsis: A western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula will drop southward over the next few days.
Glacier Park and vicinity, including the Highway 2 corridor near Marias Pass, will be most impacted by a combination of snow, blowing snow, and low visibility through this morning. Despite snow and wind present today, daytime temperatures will be only slightly cooler than the seasonal average.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase area-wide tonight into Thursday morning as a warm frontal zone lifts across Middle TN. Unfortunately, this setup will allow conditions to become more unstable as temps warm into the lower and possibly mid 70s and dew points climb into the lower 60s. As the system evolves late Thursday evening and storms spread southeastward ahead of the cold front, the dominant storm mode will transition to lines or clusters of storms with localized damaging wind potential and heavy downpours.
A brief return to average temperature is expected this weekend, but for the most part the region will stay warmer than normal.
A cold front will slide out of Canada through the afternoon spreading a few showers over the southwest half of the CWA. Upslope instability showers are possible in the southwest on Thursday afternoon with high pressure over central Canada.
Rain will overspread the region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, followed by cooler temperatures this weekend. Locations where temperatures dropped below freezing the light fog has allowed light ice/frost accumulation on elevated surfaces and grassy areas however, ice accumulation on roadways is not expected. Cold front sweeps through Thursday night and post-frontal high pressure will help to keep the area dry going into the weekend.
Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40s across the area. The main uncertainty is where the warm front will set up and if the storms can become surface-based as the MCS interacts with the frontal boundary. A Rockies lee side low is expected to quickly develop by early Thursday morning and help lift the warm front through the entire area on Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night, a cold front will sweep across the area.
The warm front continues to push eastward this morning and is currently centered across central North Dakota. A cold front will begin swinging through from northwest to southeast as early as mid afternoon. Otherwise, scattered rain showers should develop along the cold front as it moves through. Thursday will be cooler and windy as reinforcing cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient remain over the area.
Latest RAP/HRRR model soundings suggest this fog/drizzle could linger for for a few more hours west of the Mississippi River and possibly until mid-morning east of the river before the low levels dry out more. 850 mb temperatures ahead of this front approach +5 to +8C, which should translate to highs in the 40s across the west where the front arrives soonest, to the low to mid 50s in eastern parts of our area, although precipitation may dampen these a bit.
541 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 The short term forecast remains on track with high pressure to the west and gusty winds across the gap areas this morning. Temps and winds will drop off rapidly tonight as a cold front moves in from the north. A cooler day is expected on Thursday as the arctic air pushes in post frontal.
A low pressure system now moving toward the California coast will bring precipitation mainly south of highway 50.
This will trend into Thursday, bringing even warmer temps to the area, however another rain producing system arrives Thursday. A weak trof wave passed through the region overnight, this brought some light sprinkles to some locations around central Illinois. This, in combination with the already reduced ceilings, will hold the low cloud coverage in place for today. This will ushered additional moisture into the region, as well as aid in warmer lows. This will allow a larger Low pressure system in southern Canada, to push a frontal boundary into the region. The Low in the sw US, will push rain and snow into the Rockies late Wednesday.
Cooler weather with rain and snow chances during the weekend. Clear skies cover most of the region early this morning, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a few light showers from about the Stockton area southward as moisture continues to pivot around the low centered just off the central California coast. Current temperatures are considerably milder compared to 24 hours ago across the Central Valley, and cooler over the mountains.
412 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 An upper level ridge has begun to build across South Texas and will persist for the next couple of days. That will inhibit any chance of precipitation despite any available moisture and will bring warmer temperatures across the area. The low temperatures for the next couple of nights will be mild and humid and will run about 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
750 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A weak high pressure ridge, extending southward across the Commonwealth from eastern Canada, will be our main controlling feature through Thursday.
Warming trend expected to continue today with afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s. /issued 321 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ Weak upper/mid level ridging is gradually building over the western Gulf of Mexico, and is forecast to gradually shift east towards Florida through the rest of the week and into the weekend. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure is ridging across northern Florida, but is forecast to gradually shift south across central Florida through the upcoming weekend as a weak cold front washes out to the north of the forecast area. In response to the building high pressure at the surface and aloft, an already warm and stable airmass will only become more warm and stable.
A series of diffuse surface pressure troughs will circulate the parent low today, though the greater forcing will be after 00Z. The warm front continues to push eastward this morning and is currently centered across central North Dakota. A cold front will begin swinging through from northwest to southeast as early as mid afternoon. Otherwise, scattered rain showers should develop along the cold front as it moves through. Thursday will be cooler and windy as reinforcing cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient remain over the area.
Weak surface cold front expected to pass southward this morning with variable directions over the next 6-12 hours especially. /issued 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ Upper level flow will flatten more westerly behind passage of a weak upper ridge early this morning and a passing impulse through the Mississippi Valley. But main sensible weather change will involve a weak cold front sweeping southward this morning from the northern Texas Panhandle expected to pass through much of the area by midday with winds swinging around to the north-northeast mostly 10 mph or less.
The mid level ridge over Mexico into southwest Texas will gradually move to the east by Thursday morning and be over south Texas for Thursday. This mid level ridge will shift into the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday night as a mid level low moves across southern California. After period of late night and morning stratus, there will be bands of cirrus moving across the region as the upper ridge moves across Thursday.
Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low off the West Coast. At the surface a weak cold front had moved through the forecast area. The best time for the lowest visibility will be 7-9 AM CDT. Otherwise highs will be similar to yesterday, if not a few degrees warmer. Tonight an upper level short wave trough will move through the forecast area. Lows will be warmer than last night, only falling into the upper 30s and low 40s. South winds will turn to the northwest as a pre-frontal trough moves through. Thursday morning a cold front will move through. Highs will be 10- 20 degrees cooler than today, with temperatures being nearly steady through most of the day, then falling in the late afternoon. Thursday night broad isentropic lift moves over the forecast area ahead of the approaching trough.
NW flow will usher in cooler temps into the weekend with the coolest day being Sat with highs around 40.
Even with the cloud cover across the Panhandles today, temps are expected to rise into the low 70s today thanks to WAA pumping in from the southeast and the lee side low bringing downsloping from the west. Short range models show 700mb theta-e having the cold front Thursday present more as a backdoor cold front that just glances through the northern portions of the Panhandles.
A couple of weak impulses will pass to our north through Arkansas and Tennessee today and Thursday along a stalled frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough over the Great Lakes. A cut off upper level low over the southwestern CONUS will open up and work its way into the Plains by the weekend.
We may have a period of sunshine Thursday morning, but a strong cold front will bring a period of showers and a slight chance of thunder across southern WI during the afternoon into the early evening. It looks like showers will be confined to the ahead of the front, coincident with a digging upper trough and strong surface frontogenesis.
Tonight, it will be mostly clear with an increase in cloud coverage towards daybreak Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front is expected to move through the area Thursday. High pressure will build into the area after the cold front as colder air moves into the area. A cold front will track east across Iowa Thursday morning with MVFR conditions and light rain possible by midday for CID/DBQ terminals.
225 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Mild temperatures will continue under a gradually suppressed ridging pattern out ahead of an upper level low approaching from the SE Pacific.
After a warm day on Wednesday, expect the mild conditions to continue through the night with overnight lows only able to fall into the lower to mid 60s. On Thursday, a cold front will begin to slowly push south into portions of our northern zones by the afternoon hours. Using this frontal boundary as a point of focus, areas south of the front will generally continue to see conditions similar to today, with high temperatures in the lower 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
300 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Dense fog over the Permian Basin has finally dissipated and temperatures have warmed quickly into the U70s/L80s this afternoon aided by lee troughing across the Southern Plains. This low which is now located over off the CA coast will be our nxt big rain maker in the coming days.
/issued 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ Upper level flow will flatten more westerly behind passage of a weak upper ridge early this morning and a passing impulse through the Mississippi Valley. But main sensible weather change will involve a weak cold front sweeping southward this morning from the northern Texas Panhandle expected to pass through much of the area by midday with winds swinging around to the north-northeast mostly 10 mph or less.
A deepening trough in the upper Great Lakes region will tilt negatively.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 71 59 66 48 / 50 80 80 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 69 58 64 45 / 30 80 90 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 52 68 57 64 44 / 30 80 100 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 69 56 63 40 / 10 70 90 60 20.
This looks to occur in the vicinity of the warm front once the low-level jet begins to intensify. A northern stream trough will approach the Great Lakes during the day, with most of the large scale forcing for ascent removed to our north. Additional storms are expected during the overnight period as cold front moves south across the region.
Conditions will be warmer on Thursday, as an approaching storm system causes the temperatures to push into the lower 60s.
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 The main weather highlight in the short range will be the passage of a cold front overnight tonight which is expected to deliver some light precip to portions of this CWA and kick up the winds on Thursday.
Any flakes south of I-69 this morning will be partially melted and quickly liquefy on contact while further north, some trace accumulations (perhaps a few tenths) may arise on grassy/elevated surfaces where sub-freezing surface temps have cropped up overnight. Veering winds to the SSW will guide low-level WAA late this morning, further modifying the lowest few thousand feet. Temps should exceed 40F late this afternoon with persistent cloudiness keeping overnight lows above freezing into Thursday. Modest PV anomaly will enhance the northern stream jet and drive a upper level low through Lake Superior supporting intensification of a open surface wave on Thursday. The low will undergo rapid deepening under favorable cyclonic flow field.
For tonight, low chances for light rain to change to light snow across the far northwest Sandhills behind an advancing cold front. Otherwise, strong cold air advection is anticipated behind the advancing cold front with H85 temps dropping to around -2C across north central Nebraska in the afternoon. Good mixing should still allow highs to reach the low to mid 40s northwest Sandhills to near 50 across southeastern areas. For Thursday night, the upper flow will become more zonal as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes Region and a closed upper low migrates from southern California into the Desert Southwest. Lows from the lower to mid 20s.
Our area will remain in west to southwest flow aloft the next 24 hours, ahead of an upper level low situated over the southwest states. Temperatures will be unusually warm tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 60s. Expect another warm day tomorrow, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 80s.
By tomorrow, a pronounced thermal ridge will develop along/ahead of the pre-frontal trof, with afternoon temps warming into the upper 70s to low 80s (with some mid 80s not out of the question). Some strong to severe storms will be possible, with the threat ending toward 06Z as the trailing cold front finally surges through the region.
Late tonight into Thursday morning, an additional wave moving along the northward moving warm front will provide increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in north Georgia.
Tonight-Thursday: Elongated upper trough begins to swing through the area later tonight.
The disturbance will send a weak dry cold front through the area late this afternoon and evening.
Unseasonably warm and dry today and continued unseasonably warm and dry Thursday ahead of the cold front.
Meanwhile a sfc cold front will also move through the northern Plains reaching eastern IA to the KS Flint Hills by early Thursday afternoon. An active period is expected for this period with southwest flow aloft and several areas of low pressure tracking through the area.
/issued 508 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Aside from possible patchy morning fog this morning, mainly across our southwestern counties, warmer than usual temperatures will continue. Highs today, in the 80s, will be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer that usual.
231 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A weak high pressure ridge, extending southward across the Commonwealth from eastern Canada, will be our main controlling feature through Thursday afternoon.
The next storm system was already moving rapidly east-southeast across the northern Rockies, and into the high plains of Montana this afternoon.
224 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Unsettled and much cooler conds on track after today as mean troughing in central Canada will bias much colder air south into the CONUS. Northern stream trough and associated cold front beginning to shift south into the Northern Plains today. Cold front will shift south tonight with upper jet forcing supporting decent lift aloft. Attention then turns toward the expected digging western CONUS trough.
E-W upper level jet over the area will shift south and east tonight and Thu as an upper level trough over ALTA moves across the area Thu and toward the Great Lakes by Fri morning. Cold front over southern ALTA will sweep through the forecast area later tonight. Wind shift line is expected to precede cold front. Cooler Thu with highs in the 30s. Breezy conditions are expected for Thu as cooler air moves into the area.
Models show a cold front extending from Wisconsin to central Missouri to central Oklahoma by 18z Thursday.
The Florida peninsula remains under the influence of the western periphery of a broad high pressure system centered over the west Atlantic. With the high pressure remaining in place, subsidence prevails and intensifies on Thursday with afternoon highs near 80 along the east coast, and low-mid 80s elsewhere.
1124 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Water vapor shows short wave ridge crossing the northern Rockies into the northern plains, with dense mid/upper level cloud cover associated with chinook arch extending through our northern zones. Upper level cut-off low is situated just offshore the CA coast. At the surface, lee trof is advancing into eastern MT/eastern WY. Upper ridge passing overhead along with surface trof pushing through the Dakotas will result in much warmer and drier conditions today. Cold front will then sweep through the area tonight, with winds shifting to the northwest and becoming a bit gusty.
That said, high temps will reach the lower 80's with a few spots probably reaching the mid 80's.
145 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A weak high pressure ridge, extending southward across the Commonwealth from eastern Canada, will be our main controlling feature through Thursday afternoon.
Ridging aloft increases on Thursday, with no PoPs in forecast at this time.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and west Texas tonight will flatten out and shift eastward Thursday as a 500mb low west of southern California/Baja California moves slowly eastward through Thurs night. Low to mid level moisture will be relatively high across northeast Mexico into the Texas tonight into Thursday but rain chances will remain well north of the CWA as a weak cold front moves into north Texas Thursday afternoon. Will continue to mention patchy fog across the eastern portions of the CWA tonight into Thurs morning as light winds allow advective fog to develop across the lower Texas coast and move inland late tonight into early Thurs morning.
205 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 At 2 PM, the low clouds are starting to break in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Upper level trough pushes east over northeastern United States/southern Canada Thursday night.
Lows should only fall into the lower 70s tonight, moderated mostly by cloud cover. High pressure centered in the western North Atlantic is the dominate feature controlling surface flow, while substantial mid- to upper-level ridging builds overhead through the weekend. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement with the synoptic pattern, depicting a remarkably quiet forecast through mid March with no hopes of a cold front anywhere near our latitude. PoPs range from 0-10% each day with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s and lows falling into the lower to mid 70s.