Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE REGION'S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
IN A BIT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN. WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPERIENCE A TASTE OF LATE JUNE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BRING DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING WEST TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND BRINGING IN WARMER AIR. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE A CONSIDERABLY COOLER AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS IN ILLINOIS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE THAN FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH.
This upper ridge will support a dry forecast tonight with overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s. A large upper level low pressure system can be viewed on the water vapor imagery directly centered over the Great Basin.
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY TO START THE WEEKEND.
A WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S ON THE LOWER DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.
357 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS.
Temperatures were generally in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. For today, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the area with some drier air in the mid level attempting to move in from the north and west. As the sun breaks out, we'll see temperatures warm into the lower-middle 70s. Mid-level ridging will continue to increase tonight resulting in mostly clear skies across the area with overnight lows cooling into the lower-middle 50s.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER.
THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CONUS SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND IS PROJECTED TO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW. MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN COMING TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN STREAM COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AFFILIATED COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BUT THIS RIDGE IS FAR FROM DOMINANT AND POPS.
354 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NUDGED TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE BCCONSALL. RELATIVELY MOIST DEWPOINTS REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE 40S EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK MARINE PUSH MOVES IN WITH THE UPVALLEY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BRIEFLY MOVES INLAND.
BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
H500 DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA FORMING A REGION OF SINKING/DRYING AIR OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND KICK OFF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK UP INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. THEY MAY END UP BEING EVEN COOLER.
358 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FIRST EPIDOSE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR REGION/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES FROM THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK OLD BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
651 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS.
STILL APPEARS TO BE AN A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS WELL. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH REGION IN FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
For much of the day today, the energy from the upper level system will fight the drier air in place under the ridge over the area.
INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY LINE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING PRECIP/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT FROM SW TO NE AS ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE. THE FOCUS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SET UP FOR PRECIP OVER AREA AS UPPER LOWS SHIFT EAST THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BIT COOLER UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND NEXT WED AND THU. AS THERMAL TROUGH BUILD OVER NW CALIF.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. BEHIND THE LOW.
417 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015 CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
338 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
652 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
1027 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region, bringing warm, dry days and cool nights, through the remainder of the work week.
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015 High pressure will exist across the Northern Rockies through tonight.
THERE IS A VERY WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
416 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND PERIODIC WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
411 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
604 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES.
502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX. LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO OUR NW. OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-20.
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
334 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BROUGHT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. WARMER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL, SO NO ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. EVEN WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE ONGOING FORECAST.
325 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
417 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Deep cutoff low over the Four Corners has amplified the upper level ridge over the mid-Mississippi Valley. This ridge should hold fast today as the low moves slowly east into Colorado. The ridge should provide enough subsidence to keep the area dry today, and with 850mb temperatures in the 12-14C range the MOS highs in the upper 70s to low 80s range look good. The low will continue drifting northeast tonight and should be in eastern Colorado by 12Z Saturday morning.
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SAT AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY. PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RISE SOME WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
128 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS.
1115 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.
AND SATURDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW. SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
328 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP TO YESTERDAY AS IOWA REMAINS IN AREA OF WEAK FLOW WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY WITH BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT THEN TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEST MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW STATIC STABILITIES SUGGESTED DUE TO THE LOW THETA-E DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THOUGH WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
IN THIS AREA OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR DO HINT AT THIS INTO THE DAY AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH. MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
ONCE THE FOG LIFTS LATER THIS MORNING A NICE MILD SPRING DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL GIVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND IL YET ON SATURDAY TO BRING A NOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY, WITH MILDEST READINGS NEAR THE IN BORDER WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
610 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
319 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK TROUGH AND DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH OR FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-10 WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
INFLUX OF DRY AIR WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY IN WESTERN SECTIONS. CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW TREK TO THE EAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
437 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015 (Today and Tonight) The main concern today is the threat for severe thunderstorms across a large part of West Central Texas as a large potent upper low near the Four Corners begins to move east today and tonight. The dryline will interact with moisture already in place across the region as dewpoints range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, moderate 0-6km shear, steep lapse rates, MU CAPE Values 1500-2500 J/KG, a weak capping inversion, an approaching short wave from far West Texas, and an exit region of the subtropical jet flowing across the NW Hill Country.
414 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WARM TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOWER 70S. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RH FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TODAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT IN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DRIER FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN. THE DRIER PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
611 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
On Saturday morning convection from the overnight hours will still be lingering across portions of eastern KS as the main mid/upper low finally begins to track over the plains. As the main mid/upper low progresses eastward it will gradually weaken into an open wave.
150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS.
WITH LOW WIND CHILL VALUES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER EXPECT THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF BY MID MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NE. NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FASTER.
1030 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 CURRENTLY - A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WILL SHAVE BACK POPS IN THE MORNING ZONE UPDATE AN ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ARE NOW AT FREEZING AND ABOVE FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 20 SOUTHWARD. ONCE THE EARLY MORNING BATCH OF SHOWERS EXITS NORTHERN IOWA THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION SO THIS LINGERING DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME.
656 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 AVIATION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
Best estimate is that highs have already been seen in north central KS while the rest of the area will see rising temps as dewpoints surge then fall as the trough passes. Latest model soundings suggest that rain will mix with sleet or freezing rain especially after midnight along the turnpike corridor with sleet/snow to the northwest of this Emporia to Topeka axis. Models have been trending a bit more north with heavier rains so will have to watch the potential for more freezing rain potential in the event that a warm nose persists in the 925-700mb layer than what is fcst by the GFS/ECMWF. NAM is the warm outlier and have discounted the lower temp profile for tonight. Lows will range from the lower 30s far southeast to the lower 20s north.
A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH COVERS THE ROCKIES WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THUS WE SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. ROAD TEMPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR ARE AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. A RATHER ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS WHICH ALONG WITH THE 850 MB CIRCULATION BECOME THE FOCI FOR PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WILL PREVAIL AS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.
A strong cold front will arrive late this morning and move through the terminals during the day. Water vapor imagery indc a deep trof over the Rockies with a cutoff low developing in Southern Utah.
MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. OR FREEZING DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS.
513 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT DRY SUBSIDENT MID LEVEL AIR (VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP OVERALL RAIN CHANCES (POPS 20 PERCENT) AND COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH MAINLY A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED.