Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1154 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions across much of the area through mid week. Cloud cover will be on the increase after 00Z with the approach of a weakening cold front. The best upper support and moisture is progged to remain north of the region but with the assistance of the lift with the ridges and lake enhancement, snow showers are expected across the northern PA counties and along the ridges down into WV. Temperatures are expected to be near or just above average Tuesday, with readings a few degrees below seasonable levels on Wednesday after the passage of the cold front.
215 PM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 A ridge of high pressure will remain over Central PA through midweek. A weak front and disturbance aloft will brush the Northwest Mtns of PA with some snow showers late tonight through Wednesday, while an area of low pressure moving Northeast off the Carolina brings cloud cover and a bit of light rain to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont region.
A moisture-starved cold front will push through the forecast area tonight from northwest to southeast. Behind the frontal passage, chillier air associated with high pressure dropping south from the northern Plains will advect into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will be a bit colder than values seen today, only reaching the lower to middle 40s.
The low sun angle and late sunrise suggest fog will stick around longer than earlier anticipated. Northwest flow aloft prevails on the back side of the departing upper level low pressure system now centered over MS. At the surface, weak ridging will prevail, allowing for light and variable winds.
Late tonight and on Wednesday morning, a weak cold front will backdoor into the Big Country and may reach a Sweetwater to Coleman to Brownwood line. Temperatures behind this weak front should be a little cooler across the northern and northeastern parts of our area, relative to areas farther south.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): As the mid level trough continues to work east across the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeastern US, high pressure will build across Deep South Texas and continue to bring favorable weather through mid week.
Expect quite a few clouds around for today into early tonight before clearing out, most of them of the high/mid variety. Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 50 29 56 40 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 46 26 55 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 46 26 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 43 23 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Temperatures will be near climatology today with highs generally in the lower 50s. GOES-16 Satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low over Northern Louisiana. The aforementioned upper level low will move east today with rain chances diminishing this morning as isentropic ascent and mid- level forcing weakens. Highs today will be in the lower 50s across most areas. Short term models indicate a weak cold front in the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley will drop southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly cooler within northwest flow aloft.
Wednesday, an upper level ridge over the western Conus moves east, with height rises in the upper levels. Low to mid MVFR level CIGs and VFR VISBYs will transition to general VFR conditions this afternoon into tonight as an upper low over the Southeast moves off to the east.
A polar branch trough is diving southeast across the Great Lakes east of a modest ridge over the Intermountain West. This northern stream trough will drive a reinforcing cold front into the area tonight. The ridge over the western CONUS will gradually shift into the Plains, damping into more of a quasi-zonal pattern aloft.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) It's noticeably warmer out there this afternoon despite increasing high clouds, with breezy westerly to southwesterly downsloping winds helping temperatures reach into the 60s and lower 70s areawide. Dry northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of a low amplitude ridge to the west and continued downsloping surface flow will yield an even warmer day on Wednesday, with highs across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas expected to top out around 15 degrees above normal in the 70s for most, with a return to the lower 80s possible for portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
/Issued 431 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/ A weak cold front will switch the winds around to the north at 10 to 15 knots late this morning into the early afternoon. /Issued 316 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/ A cold front will slide southward across the Panhandles this afternoon.
Generally only trace snow amounts expected for most places south of Route 10 with trailing cold frontal passage this evening, but some local half inch or so accums possible where NW flow lake effect bands persist overnight as H8 temps briefly bottom out around -15C.
1240 PM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 It will become breezy this afternoon as a cold front approaches, with southwest wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour.
While there is some warm air advection (WAA) in the mid-levels, marginally breezy winds should be able to mix down some of the warmer air to the surface. Areas along the MO River Valley in central SD have a decent chance of reaching 50 degrees, with areas in SW MN largely in the mid 30s, and areas between the two in the lower to mid 40s. Not impossible to squeak out some flurries as far south as the highway 14 corridor, especially as some medium-range models are suggesting that may occur, but any accumulation expected to remain minimal. Lows will be a bit warmer, largely in the lower to upper 20s.
Some patchy fog will be possible in the overnight and early morning hours, with the highest chances for AEX.
This low is expected to continue to move south and east through today, resulting in winds becoming northerly, east of the Caprock escarpment. These northerly winds will advect some moisture that currently resides over Oklahoma into this area, helping to keep areas off the Caprock slightly warmer than areas on the Caprock for tonight. This will again allow for dry and warmer than normal conditions over the area as an upper ridge begins to build.
An upper ridge will move across the area Wednesday providing a warm-up for the next couple days. from Glasgow to the north and east will likely not reach the freezing mark).
A few flurries in daytime stratocumulus across northwest MN should end this afternoon as peak heating ends, with potential for cooler temperatures overnight.
Late tonight and on Wednesday morning, a weak cold front will backdoor into the Big Country and may reach a Sweetwater to Coleman to Brownwood line. Temperatures behind this weak front should be a little cooler across the northern and northeastern parts of our area, relative to areas farther south. Subtropical upper level high pressure remains in place across Mexico, keeping Texas in fast zonal flow aloft.
A deep trough to the east of the area will continue to push towards the eastern seaboard of the US, while high pressure begins builds in its wake. Light winds will shift to onshore flow as the high pressure builds in tonight, increasing our low-level moisture. No precipitation is expected through Wednesday night, but with the low-level moisture, dry mid- and upper-levels, and light winds, patchy fog is expected to develop late tonight and again late Wednesday night.
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Lower Treasure through noon MST.
621 PM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 Colder and breezy conditions are expected behind a cold front later tonight into Wednesday.
Early morning temperatures will drop to near freezing so there could be some icy spots where light rain fell in southwest North Carolina late today.
For Wednesday, surface ridging will build into the Tennessee valley with dry and seasonable temperatures expected.
Weak cold front currently swinging through the region with gusty northwest winds behind the front across northern Missouri.
519 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Another cold front associated with an upper level trough passing to our north will move through the area this evening into tonight. Wednesday's temperatures will be affected by the cold front.
The high will remain dominant over the area overnight before getting pushed east late tonight as low pressure approaches from the west. After fairly light winds tonight into Wednesday morning, they will become more southerly, ushering warmer air into the region. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 20s northeast to the lower 40s southeast.
Much Cooler Tonight. The area of low pressure that crossed over central FL earlier this afternoon continues to quickly depart to the north and east away from the area with its associated cold front now having cleared the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track as much cooler air advects in from the north and west.
A storm system passing to our north will push a cold front across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri this afternoon. Discussion: Today's cold front will exit into Illinois late this afternoon with a strong pressure gradient lingering across the area before high pressure builds in after 06 UTC on Wednesday.
831 PM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 Low pressure will continue to track away to the northeast Tonight, as high pressure ridge builds in from the west. Low level moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will continue the cloud cover, in addition to potential for lingering drizzle. Winds will become less breezy overnight and settle in from out of the northwest as dry air associated with high pressure ridging builds in over the southeastern US. Overnight low temperatures for the winter solstice will drop down into the upper 30s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 40s for northeast Florida and for locations along the coast.
At 333 PM, high pressure was beginning to build in behind a midday frontal passage.
For now, lows will fall into the lower 30s & some spots could reach near the freezing mark, but dense fog or freezing fog potential looks unlikely at the moment. Wednesday: Mean trough/jet energy will dig into the Pacific NW & Intermountain W Wed, keeping persistent NW dry flow. Low-level thermo ridge will build through, keeping N-NE winds, & nice warm, dry & mostly sunny aftn. /DC/ The forecast period begins with a deep high pressure ridge building from the west and impacting the southeastern region with warmer and drier conditions.
A few terminals remain in MVFR due to lower CIGS, but conditions are gradually improving as the low pressure system moves off to the east. /issued 310 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/ As the upper level low continues to push to the east conditions are expected to improve. After the low moves out, a ridge is expected to dominate the region bringing in cold air advection. -21/KWO At the beginning of the forecast, there is a high pressure that sets up and dominates the CWA.
847 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 02Z surface observations show a weak area of low pressure with affiliated cyclonic flow located across north-central Texas. Bounded by a surface pressure trough/weak dryline to its west, and a bubble of high pressure to its east, this corridor of flow should persist into the overnight hours as the low remains quasi-stationary across north-central Texas.
The latest WV imagery reveals a mid level trough digging southeast through the northern plains and upper midwest as a minor ridge of high pressure shifts over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a weak cold front has shifted through the Panhandles as high pressure shifts out of the Dakotas towards MS/IA. Meanwhile, the western ridge will slowly shift east and dampen as the next trough comes onshore over the Pac Northwest. Thus, weak southwest winds and slightly warmer temperatures can be expected tomorrow as day #71 without rain comes to pass.
Cloud cover this morning delayed the warm-up for the area, but clearing skies under high pressure this afternoon has definitely made up for it, as we had to bump forecast highs upwards this afternoon. Dry northwest winds along with the high pressure system have produced near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, but those conditions will improve as temperatures start to decrease and the high continues southeast. Wednesday will be warmer with southwest winds keeping temperatures up from today.
/issued 235 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): As the mid level trough continues to work east across the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeastern US, high pressure will build across Deep South Texas and continue to bring favorable weather through mid week.
310 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 As the upper level low continues to push to the east conditions are expected to improve. After the low moves out, a ridge is expected to dominate the region bringing in cold air advection. -21/KWO At the beginning of the forecast, there is a high pressure that sets up and dominates the CWA.
315 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Cloud cover this morning delayed the warm-up for the area, but clearing skies under high pressure this afternoon has definitely made up for it, as we had to bump forecast highs upwards this afternoon. Dry northwest winds along with the high pressure system have produced near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, but those conditions will improve as temperatures start to decrease and the high continues southeast. Wednesday will be warmer with southwest winds keeping temperatures up from today.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low spinning over central/southern Alabama, with an upper ridge building along the Rockies. Showers have pushed east of the TN Valley this afternoon, with some light reflectivity wrapping around the northwestern portion of the low. While some sprinkles, and even light rain, may briefly impact the area as the low continues to move eastward, the intensity and duration should not amount to too much precipitation for the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours. Northwest flow will persist aloft as the ridge to our west slowly moves eastward. At the surface, high pressure will settle in across the region, leaving dry and seasonably mild conditions.
Early morning temperatures will drop to near freezing so there could be some icy spots where light rain fell in southwest North Carolina late today. The higher clouds are clearing out, but some low VFR/MVFR cigs are expected to develop later tonight mainly TRI. Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 50 29 56 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 46 26 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 46 26 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 43 22 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Oklahoma will be downstream of a strong upper ridge translating from western AZ/UT this morning to eastern NM/CO by sunrise Thursday.
At the surface, high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to slide eastward through period. Abundant sunshine and warm southerly winds will boost high temperatures today into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the 50s, except for the low to mid 60s near the coast, with patchy to areas of fog possible, especially across the ranchlands. Thursday will be warmer with highs in the 80s, except for the upper 70s at the beaches.
Upper ridging builds over the rockies and northern plains tonight, and will bring above normal temperatures back to the forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday.
Recent HRRR output isn't overly impressive with additional fog development, but with dewpoint depressions near nil, plan on maintaining a mention of at least patchy fog/freezing fog generally along and south of I-40 early this morning. Expect high temperatures about the same or a touch warmer than yesterday.
A storm system passing to our north will push a cold front across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri this afternoon. Discussion: Today's cold front will exit into Illinois late this afternoon with a strong pressure gradient lingering across the area before high pressure builds in after 06 UTC on Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the lower to mid 30s across the area. Upper level northwesterly flow will dominate this time period, with a weak impulse progged to come through the region early Thursday morning, which will help to kick the high pressure to the south out of the area.
Upper-level ridging, building over the western US, will slowly push eastward, keeping the local area underneath northwesterly flow aloft throughout the near-term period. Highs will be near their seasonal averages for both Wednesday and Thursday, with upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday, increasing slightly to the low to mid 60s on Thursday.
We have issued an update to include a Dense Fog Advisory for the Lower Treasure Valley zones (both OR and ID). Snow showers, possibly mixed with rain in the lower elevations, will spread through the region late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Latest models bring a dissipating cold front and light snow into the Idaho mountains late tonight. Less fog expected in the Lower Treasure Valley than last night as higher clouds increase. Meanwhile, a cold front moving south along the BC coast will connect with a Pacific low near 40N/137W.
223 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will move across the region today, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.
Weak high pressure was centered over northwest Missouri per 08Z objective analysis leading to light winds and temps falling below 20 in favored locations.
One potential caveat to achieving full warming potential is forecast soundings keep mixing rather tame and thus probably need to give at least some nod to the cooler guidance today.
Discussion: Will see drier air moving in today behind the exiting weak cold front.
A cold front currently through central Ohio will cross the region this morning. The main impact will be gusty wind, magnitude of which may be sufficient for some minor tree damage and power outage potential in the higher elevations. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 30s with strong CAA behind the front. Building high pressure will alleviate the windy conditions this evening, but cold and dry advection will result in overnight lows around 20 degrees in most locations.
All terminals are back to VFR conditions now that the low pressure system has fully exited the area. VFR continues for tomorrow as high pressure brings quiet weather. A few terminals remain in MVFR due to lower CIGS, but conditions are gradually improving as the low pressure system moves off to the east. /issued 310 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/ As the upper level low continues to push to the east conditions are expected to improve. After the low moves out, a ridge is expected to dominate the region bringing in cold air advection. -21/KWO At the beginning of the forecast, there is a high pressure that sets up and dominates the CWA.
1026 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Another cold front associated with an upper level trough passing to our north will move through the area this evening into tonight. Wednesday's temperatures will be affected by the cold front.
A weak frontal boundary associated with a weak area of low pressure centered just east of the Big Country is expected to wash out and become diffuse by this afternoon. It will help to keep the Big Country a few degrees cooler in the mid to upper 60s with light northerly winds. That being said, temperatures for areas south of the Big Country will see a continued warm up into the low to mid 70s. No precipitation is expected with this boundary, largely because of how weak it is, but also partially due to upper level ridging working its way into the area by this afternoon. Tonight will be slightly warmer than what we've seen over the past few nights with overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from the Eastern Great Lakes back through the Ohio Valley and back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the dry cold front this morning. Short term models indicate the mid-level flow will become nearly zonal by Christmas Eve with temperatures moderating into the lower 70s.
1223 AM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Colder and breezy conditions are expected behind a cold front later tonight into Wednesday.
A deep trough to the east of the area will continue to push towards the eastern seaboard of the US, while high pressure begins builds in its wake. Light winds will shift to onshore flow as the high pressure builds in tonight, increasing our low-level moisture. No precipitation is expected through Wednesday night, but with the low-level moisture, dry mid- and upper-levels, and light winds, patchy fog is expected to develop late tonight and again late Wednesday night. Temperatures will increase tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to the low 80s.
Generally only trace snow amounts expected for most places south of Route 10 with trailing cold frontal passage this evening, but some local half inch or so accums possible where NW flow lake effect bands persist overnight as H8 temps briefly bottom out around -15C. --Period of Snow Possible Thursday-- Warm advection/isentropic lift pattern arrives Thursday and guidance has been advertising some snow north of the warm front.
A few flurries in daytime stratocumulus across northwest MN should end this afternoon as peak heating ends, with potential for cooler temperatures overnight. Expect light accumulations and warmer temperatures in return flow ahead of the next system.
Current regional surface analysis shows much of the SE US is wedged between a storm system pushing off the lower Atlantic coast and an area of high pressure behind a dry cold front over the Plains. For locations that could see fog, expect temps to hover near the freezing fog threshold. While not expecting significant fog coverage, let along much freezing fog, will monitor overnight. Northwest flow will persist aloft as the ridge to our west slowly moves eastward. At the surface, high pressure will settle in across the region, leaving dry and seasonably mild conditions. This southerly surface flow will begin to filter warmer and more moist Gulf air into the area and lead to highs warming into the upper 50s and keep lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
While afternoon temps look to be a few degrees below norms today, it will be decently warmer than the 40s we had yesterday. Temps look to moderate warmer mainly in north GA and many areas should reach the mid to upper 50s. Region spends most of the period under zonal upper flow pattern or on the northern edge of an upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico.
Winds will become less breezy overnight and settle in from out of the northwest as dry air associated with high pressure ridging builds in over the southeastern US. Overnight low temperatures for the winter solstice will drop down into the upper 30s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 40s for northeast Florida and for locations along the coast. Cooling temperatures, clearing skies, and dry weather will build in for midweek as high pressure ridging settles in over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Temperatures for midweek will be below average with daily high temperatures ranging between the lower 50s and mid to upper 60s with warmer temps occuring further southward.
Meanwhile temperatures are currently (as of 3am) sitting in the low to upper 20s.
Despite plenty of sunshine, Wednesday afternoon highs still look several degrees cooler than what we experienced today.
While there is some warm air advection (WAA) in the mid-levels, marginally breezy winds should be able to mix down some of the warmer air to the surface. Areas along the MO River Valley in central SD have a decent chance of reaching 50 degrees, with areas in SW MN largely in the mid 30s, and areas between the two in the lower to mid 40s. Not impossible to squeak out some flurries as far south as the highway 14 corridor, especially as some medium-range models are suggesting that may occur, but any accumulation expected to remain minimal. Lows will be a bit warmer, largely in the lower to upper 20s. Most areas will only see a marginal increase in temperatures, but areas in SW MN will likely reach up into the lower 40s.