Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
101 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure to the north will keep the weather dry and seasonable today and Wednesday.
406 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues along an upper trough axis that extends from North Texas, through Central Oklahoma, and into Arkansas and Tennessee. Convective coverage will increase across the area tonight and into early Wednesday morning as the upper trough axis moves overhead. Rain chances should diminish somewhat Wednesday evening as the atmosphere stabilizes and the upper trough axis continues to slowly moves south.
Meanwhile, moisture pool/axis seen in the 850-700 MB Theta-E fields which triggered activity yesterday in and around Saginaw Bay seen lifting northeast through northern Thumb region, and much of southeast Michigan looks to be in Theta-E trough for majority of the day. Still looking a weak cold front drifting through southeast Michigan during Wednesday, with sheared out upper level PV providing some upper level support.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated a pre-frontal trough that stretched from central Lake Superior southwest through northeast WI into northeast IA. The cold front extended from western Lake Superior southwest through northwest WI into southeast MN. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to push across the forecast area as the pre-frontal trough exits the area late this afternoon and the cold front slowly moves southeast tonight. Otherwise, morning clouds should break into a mix of sun and clouds with cooler temperatures. Look for readings to only reach the lower to middle 70s north-central/near Lake MI, mainly upper 70s elsewhere.
Showers are expected to redevelop between 06-12z closer to the coast and a secondary area of showers will be possible further north as a weak upper level trough axis approaches. The building ridge off the U. west coast will be producing a corresponding upper trough across the MS river valley the next few days. The elevated rain chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend as another cold front approaches and then stalls across the region.
Fairly widespread cloud cover today has suppressed temps, with readings currently in the low/mid 80s. On Wednesday, an upper trough swings into the Ohio Valley and will provide a bit more upper support.
609 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will push east of the region tonight.
336 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail tonight while Tropical Depression Emily passes well offshore.
221 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 August will begin with much warmer than average temperatures.
This cool airmass will barely have an impact on north central Idaho beyond easterly winds over the high terrain. The ridge redevelops for the latter part of the week into the weekend. The models continue to indicate that the ridge axis will be to the west, leaving the Northern Rockies under northwesterly flow.
249 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will push east of the region tonight.
102 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure continues to dominate our weather at the surface with an upper level ridge over the western US providing northwesterly flow aloft. Highs today will be in the mid 80s, with the slightly warmer temperatures across northern MO where there won't be as much cloud cover. The low both at the lower and upper levels should track east across the northern Midwest, strengthening as it does.
229 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017 A nearly stationary large high pressure ridge aloft will remain over the Western U.
High pressure continues to sit to the west over the Great Basin, keeping us in a north-northeasterly flow. This will bring much cooler weather to the Front Range, while the western slope remains warm but cooler than today.
114 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Aviation A weak area of high pressure over the Central Appalachians will draw up increasing amounts of moisture into the region today through Wednesday The atmosphere will become warm and unstable.
654 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair through midweek, though slowly increasing humidity will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
Cold front moves through the region overnight with a second area of precipitation trailing the front and moving through during the day Wednesday.
329 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair through midweek, though slowly increasing humidity will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
Regional 88Ds continue to show scattered convection continuing mainly over the nwrn Gulf in association with an inverted coastal trof. /issued 458 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/ Quiet weather pattern as high pressure over the central US controls the weather pattern this morning. Mrng lows xpcd into the mid 70s which will be about three to five degrees cooler than last week.
559 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair through midweek, though slowly increasing humidity will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
218 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Upper level ridge will build in over the region through the week with above normal temperatures expected.
312 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will gradually slide offshore through the middle of the week.
346 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure centered over the Appalachians this afternoon with the old frontal boundary remaining over the central Gulf of Mexico. Upper ridging over Nevada cooking much of the western portion of the country with an upper trough over the eastern half of the country.
Models are in fairly good agreement of another area of showers and thunderstorms developing across North Texas this evening in closer proximity to the cold front in a fairly moist airmass.
1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Strong high pressure system is now in control of the western CONUS with active northwest flow expected to remain overhead through mid- week. Expect with mainly light rain and gusty winds, but models do hint at some higher moisture along the Pine Ridge, and combined with bulk shear around 40 kts, cannot rule out a stronger storm producing hail in this area. The wave is progged to move overhead on Wednesday, dragging a cold front south across the forecast area as well. Not overly confident whether storms will sustain for long in a cooler and more stable post-frontal airmass across the plains, but some may forced along the 700 mb front in the evening and overnight, and frontogenesis during this time looks to be a forcing mechanism as well.
301 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Little change today from past two days with slightly warmer temperatures and more humid with some very isolated showers and storms in far SE sections. Temperatures ranging mostly in the lower 80s at 2 PM CDT.
Cold front associated with upper wave will also approach the Palmer Divide late in the afternoon, which should help force convection over the nrn half of the plains, as CAPE north of the Arkansas Valley climbs to around 1000 J/KG. Max temps should climb just a few degf over the area Wed afternoon with increased mixing ahead of the upper wave/cold front, and a few spots on the plains reach the 90f mark by late in the day. First cold front comes through Wednesday night and models are keeping isolated to scattered showers going through the overnight hours across the eastern half of the forecast area.
GFS 500-700mb layer moisture prog depicts this moisture dropping south to nearer to the Gulf coast on Wednesday, near the base of a bread midlevel height trof.
The deterministic runs predict and the GFS ensemble mean predicts an upper trough axis to enter the region from the N during the period with the N-S axis over or just east of the CWA Wednesday, then more confidently just offshore Wednesday Night. Athough the CWA may be located under the subsident side of the trough axis by Wednesday night, the bulk of the associated 700-300mb Q-vector divergence predicted to remain N and NW of the CWA/MSA during the period. Thus, the combination of the upper trough and copious moisture may result in an increasing chance for convection over the CWA/MSA during the period.
Hot and dry conditions continue across interior NorCal as the region is dominated by a strong upper ridge. Afternoon temperatures are running 5-10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday's given a compressed marine layer and a weak to non- existent onshore flow.
653 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
Overnight tonight, cold front will move through the area. For lows, lowered our western zones a category under superblend values as some of the CAMs and ECMWF showed cooler lows then what consensus was giving. Elsewhere, lows should bottom out in the lower 40s. We are still looking at a highly meridional pattern as low pressure really strengthens and wraps up over the Ohio River valley, with another strong upper trough moving toward the Pacific coast. In between, a high amplitude upper ridge is situated over the Rockies giving our area a dominant northwest flow aloft.
This should occur with the loss of daytime heating and as the cyclonic flow weakens as high pressure builds in from the west. This high will drift east across the area overnight and provide mostly clear skies for a good share of the night. For areas west of the Mississippi River, expecting to see an increase in high clouds overnight that will cut off the good radiation conditions and keep the temperatures a little bit warmer. The increase in high clouds will occur ahead of an approaching short wave trough. This trough is still expected to drop well south of the area to form a cut off low over the lower Missouri River Valley into the mid Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night.
Through the period a mid/upper level trough over the Baja Peninsula will work eastward and conjoin with a deeper upper level tough as it digs out of the Rockies into the Mid- West. This will send a cold front south across the state on Wednesday. Moisture advection will continue through the day Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which will steadily track south across the state, nearing the northern border of the CWA by the end of the period. With regard to temperatures, expect little difference during the afternoons, although tomorrow will be slightly cooler across the coast and Victoria Crossroads where greater cloud cover and rain is expected. Tonight will be much warmer than last night and the night before, with lows staying in the low to mid 70s across most locations.
1117 AM PDT Tue May 2 2017 A weak weather system exits today and high pressure builds in, with mostly dry conditions. A warm front lifts in tonight into Wednesday with more clouds and limited shower chances.
Zonal flow aloft with high pressure at the surface will dominate through tonight.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a broad weak trough in northwest flow from Nebraska through northeast Montana and into central Alberta. Farther west, a ridge is building into the Pacific Northwest. This afternoon through tonight: Showers and thunderstorms across the area are being supported by a combination lift aloft from the exiting trough and at the surface by some daytime heating for thunder. Wednesday: Ridge should begin moving in. Strong ridge of high pressure and warmer than average temperatures will give way to an approaching trough of low pressure from the west.
18Z surface data has high pressure from Minnesota into the central Plains. After sunset, dry and cold conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Favored cold areas north of I-80 have the potential to see temperatures below freezing with some very localized areas below 30 degrees possible. The coldest temperatures will be in the far south with the warmest in the highway 20 corridor.
136 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A dry pressure ridge west and south of the forecast area will extend through the area Wednesday. A warm front will develop in the region Wednesday night ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front.
An upper level ridge continues to build along 133 west longitude this morning. Deeper moisture and stronger warm air advection aloft, associated with a warm front, is just offshore from the central Oregon coast north along the Washington coast. Meanwhile, should see the gradual development of isolated to scattered showers from central Oregon north to the Washington Cascade east slopes late this morning through the afternoon due to the approaching warm front.
Main upper level ridge was located off the West Coast. Upper ridge will move east and build over the western US. Eastern part of the ridge will shift into the forecast area and will shut down the mid level instability by Thu morning. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough over western ND. Cold front/wind shift will move through Wed and produce showers/isolated thunder.
High pressure will move in later Wednesday but will not stay long at all. Low pressure will organize over the Mississippi Valley and move northward late this week.
107 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 High pressure returns today, then remains in place through Wednesday night.
All the short term models keep things dry through this evening with some differences as a strong cold front pushes across the area. Highs tomorrow will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today as strong north wind keeps cold air advection in place through the day.
The highest pops will be weighted mainly along and south of highway 50 as recent trends would support a subtle shift north with the qpf axis. The higher probabilities for thunderstorms should remain across Southern KS after 03-05Z where MUCAPES of 400-500 J/KG are progged. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward across the Central Great Basin area and into the Rockies bringing tranquil but breezy conditions to the Central Plains states through the period.
A cold front associated with the upper trough will enter the northern Big Country around daybreak tomorrow and will quickly move south to the I-10 corridor by noon tomorrow. Clouds will build to the north over all of the forecast area tonight but will begin to dissipate in the wake of the cold front by tomorrow afternoon. There is a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms east of line from Sweetwater to San Angelo to Junction tomorrow morning as the cold front moves south through the area. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be in low to mid 70s across the northern CWA and in the low to mid 80s across the southern CWA.
Will have to monitor the high elevation mountain passes for locally heavy snowfall this afternoon and this evening with some models indicating high elevation snow squall activity due to boundary layer instability. Temperatures are expected to lower this afternoon however as some cooler air moves into the area. Gusty northwest winds up to 45 MPH are expected Wednesday as the trough moves eastwards and an upper level ridge begins to build west of Wyoming.
The heaviest rain looks fall along and south of the Highway 50 corridor.
As a result, clearing skies tonight with high pressure moving over the area will be short lived as SE flow ahead of the approaching system develops warm advection and frontogenesis aloft to spread increasing rainfall rates over the area during the day Wednesday.
A strong low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes will move slowly northeast across southeast Canada today, continuing to cause windy and cool conditions in our area with scattered showers. High pressure will move across the Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday providing fair weather with lows in the 30s.
Models continue to advertise the main energy stretching out as main jet digs into the central to southern Plains, leaving perhaps a bit weaker forcing as the trough axis stretches out as slipping southeast across the area. A little stronger convergence features in play at lower levels to pool up modest dewpoint to couple with somewhat cooler temps aloft in general large scale troughing to bring perhaps a few hundred MLCAPE in zone around slowly advancing frontal boundary.
122 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 A mainly dry northern stream cold front is poised to move through the forecast area late tonight and Wednesday morning knocking temperatures back to below normal values Wednesday afternoon.
Southerly flow in the low-levels continues across south central Texas this afternoon, with dewpoints currently in the mid 40s Hill Country to lower 60s in the coastal plains. Southerly flow in the low-levels overnight will result in increased moisture levels. For the late afternoon and evening hours, attention will be focused on a strong cold front set to move into the region. The latest data suggests the cold front will enter the western Hill Country around 3 PM. Rainfall chances will decrease significantly by late Wednesday evening as drier air in the low-levels filters in behind the front.
346 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Rest of Today and Tonight: A cold front is slowly making its way down the Florida peninsula.
The showers near the KS-NE border will continue to sag southward as the southern stream upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains and is not likely to affect our area. Am not so confident that the troughs will eventually phase, and with solutions like NAM leaning toward not, they also have backed down on precipitation coverage. Southern stream trough should become dominant as it deepens into a trough, while weakening northern stream wave should also provide weakening precipitation coverage and intensity later Wednesday afternoon into the early evening before it diminishes altogether.
A warm front will spread light rain across the area then lift north of the area tonight. In the wake of the front, a building ridge will bring much warmer temps to the area, near 80 in the valleys, the warmest of the year so far.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish from west to east late tonight into early Wednesday, as high pressure begins to build over the Northern Rockies.
307 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A strong low pressure system will push east of Lake Huron this afternoon allowing gusty winds to slowly relax. Cooler and drier conditions will be observed tonight into Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area.
221 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over ern Ontario which moves to western Quebec by this evening. Overall, the forecast is pretty quiet as the closed low continues to move away and allow drier air into the area which will decrease the cloud cover.
By midnight, models indicate almost all precip ending though a few stray showers are possible over the higher peaks. Height rises then start building in as a large area of high pressure builds in from the desert southwest.
Hot conditions today as ridge apex shifts inland. Tomorrow will be another hot today as the ridge begins to exit into the Great Basin.
Wind speeds this aftn will be 10-15 KT at BPT/LCH with speeds less than 10 KT at AEX/LFT/ARA closer to the high center. A warm front will lift from southwest to northeast acrs the region between 12-18Z bringing an increase in SHRA/TSRA to the area during this timeframe. /issued 1035 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ With high pressure now to our east per sfc analysis, srly flow has been re-established and our expected warmup is underway with 15z temps now generally running 75-80. Rain chances will be coming later tonight from the southwest, and overspreading the entire area Wednesday as a deepening trof advances east across the plains.
Maximum temperatures will be much warmer in the middle 60s to near 70. A surface warm front will sharpen along the OK/KS to MO/AR border late today into tonight. Isentropic ascent and increasing H85-H7 frontogenesis will generate a swath of precipitation beginning late this evening north of the surface warm front.
The mid level trough axis will pass across the cwa through this evening with weak ascent associated with it. The mdls indicate a weak cold front will push south into Denver Wednesday morning, 12-15z. Some lgt showers will continue through the mid morning hours, then increasing subsidence will develop behind the exiting trough by the aftn.
525 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 For tonight, a cold front will move through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
248 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Mostly sunny skies and lgt winds today will be quickly interrupted by early Wednesday as a stg upper trough will dig sewd into the area. Stg instability and near saturated airmass within this warm sector to interact with increased low lvl dynamical signatures, resulting in enhanced risk of svr storms, especially south of I-20, as helicity values may exceed 400 m/s2 as the warm front becomes displaced further to the north.
This upglide increases early this evening as the upper trough digging into the Four Corners deepens. Expect scattered showers to result mainly north of I70, but the more intense and persistent showers should come later tonight into Wednesday morning as the trough deepens and baroclinicity increases cross southeastern Kansas. Secondary upper trough, over Alberta early this afternoon, moves into Nebraska during the day Wednesday for additional light precip chances for western areas.
1223 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 High pressure over the region this morning will begin to slowly lift out of the area through the day today. As the the storm system develops and moves across northern Texas a warm front will begin to lift northward across Arkansas. The warm front will begin to move into the Ozarks later tonight around or just before Midnight.
Tomorrow's highs should be a few degrees cooler than today. The period begins with the upper level ridge over the High Plains and shifting east over the Dakotas.
A cold front will move through the area early Wednesday with a brisk north wind. An upper low will deepen, move out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains tomorrow. This low will push a cold front into the area tomorrow bringing a return of cooler temperatures. The low track will be too far north to give us rain chances so unfortunately this will be a dry frontal passage.
As expected, the lower clouds have invaded the Lower Valley with ceilings sitting right on the edge of MVFR/VFR but solidly overcast in Brownsville and soon to be there in Harlingen. For McAllen/Miller, the stratus should reach there as well but carried a bit higher with the warmer temperatures, just a little bit more into VFR. For now lowered the ceilings into the low MVFR range, somewhere between 1200 and 1800 feet.
Have allowed for isolated thunderstorms to develop as early as late this afternoon across eastern sections where richer and deeper moisture will be earliest to return, and across far northwest corner of forecast area where development could occur along the higher terrain. Associated cold front also expected to sharpen, and to move through the area overnight. Cold frontal passage makes for a cooler day on Wednesday, with lingering showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms across mainly northeast sections, due to residual mid-level moisture.
As the upper level ridge slowly creeps towards the western part of the state, an Omega blocking pattern sets up almost right on top of our area.
330 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS while low pressure is noted over sern NM/far wrn TX.
623 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Isolated showers are possible tonight with a crossing trough. Dry weather under high pressure is expected Wednesday before low pressure returns periodic rain chances Wednesday night thorough the weekend. Otherwise, broad troughing should maintain clouds and isolated to locally scattered showers tonight. Building high pressure should result in dry and clearing weather Wednesday, though a late day increase in clouds is expected again across OH in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Energy digging into the central Plains on Wednesday will develop into a closed low pressure center by Wednesday night.
The low pressure system that produced gusty winds yesterday was stacked over the Great Lakes today.
Low level ridging builds in today under generally zonal flow aloft. Westerly flow with the cooler airmass from yesterday's frontal passage will keep the region noticeably cooler and dryer. The approaching trough and system will bring increased cloud cover and rain chances.