Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures across the region below freezing was also allowing for some reports of freezing fog where visibilities were below 1/2 mile. The combination of low visibilities and freezing fog is expected to continue with impacts to those driving, especially along I-44 in Pulaski and Phelps counties and east. Temperatures are expected to climb into the lower 50s this afternoon despite an upper level low moving across the areas today bringing high cirrus clouds with it. As the upper low moves through the area, a dry surface front will swing through the region. Temperatures tonight should stay at or above the freezing mark for all but some valleys and low areas.
High pressure will build across the Desert Southwest today into Monday, resulting in a decent warming trend. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s on Monday for lower desert communities with near record temperatures for Phoenix.
517 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Key Message: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather to start the week, turning colder later in the week.
Models continued to indicate a warming trend as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the region through early this week. High temperatures will peak tomorrow before a system enters the Pacific Northwest and passes through the northern and central Rockies breaking down the high pressure ridge.
328 AM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 High pressure will build across the Desert Southwest today into Monday, resulting in a decent warming trend. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s on Monday for lower desert communities with near record temperatures for Phoenix.
345 AM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 A fast northwesterly flow aloft prevailed between a Plains trough and upstream ridge with a 140-150kt 250mb jet streaking east along the Canadian border.
230 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 Cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will push through overnight. After the front passes we are looking a few days of beautiful weather with ridging and high pressure in place. A strong cold front will be heading our way for Christmas Eve. The cold front looks to start pushing through in the evening hours on Christmas eve and should be completely out of the area by Christmas morning. A cold front will start to push through overnight.
257 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 Low pressure over the north central Gulf will drift eastward overnight.
205 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Light northerly surface flow continues today, though a building ridge to the west is still allowing for a warmer afternoon, with highs expected to top out in the upper 50s and 60s for most locations across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. The aforementioned ridge will slide eastward across the region tomorrow, and coincident with southerly return flow, will yield even warmer temperatures in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees for most.
910 AM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 Made the decision this morning to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning, excluding our northern tier zones.
Elsewhere, near to below freezing temperatures continue through the afternoon, with mid-20s to low 30s expected. Looking into Monday, Quiet weather prevails with highs in the lower 20s near Lake of the Woods and the middle 30s in southeastern ND.
Pops continue to look best across central GA as the low moves along the Gulf coast. Overnight temperatures have trended much warmer than previously forecast, so have removed nearly all mention of wintry precip across far northeastern Georgia. By Monday morning, the mid-level trough will have swept through the area, helping to clear the remaining moisture as high pressure builds in at the surface. With less precipitation and cloud cover expected on Monday, temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than today with highs in the 40s in the mountains, with 50s and 60s elsewhere.
A weak cold front will push through Nebraska overnight as well, making tomorrow's highs slightly cooler than today. However, high pressure, mostly sunny skies, and good atmospheric mixing will lead to above average highs in the low 50s. With this in mind, trended highs towards warmer guidance in the forecast.
1211 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Key Message: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather to start the week, turning colder later in the week.
At the surface, an area of low pressure currently centered over our coastal waters will continue to track eastward this afternoon leaving light northerly surface winds in its wake. By tonight, drier air aloft will slowly usher into the area as an upper ridge begins to build to our west. Even if clouds clear we are struggling to reach the mid 50s currently with a north wind and the sun angle being the lowest of the year so far (tomorrow is the lowest since it is the winter solstice). With low level moisture lingering through the night and high pressure building, some fog will be possible late tonight into the morning north of I-10. Visbys along the highway 84 corridor could be reduced to LIFR to IFR values with higher as you move further south.
A warm front will slowly lift northward tonight and expand showers from central Idaho and west-central Montana and into northwest Montana. Rising snow levels and mixed precipitation is forecast to accompany the front, so there again will be pockets of freezing rain. Mild temperatures should limit the impact of freezing rain. Northwest Montana may cool off enough for snow accumulations, especially near the Canadian Border in places like Yaak and Polebridge. A low pressure system is forecast to arrive late Monday. Expect rapidly lowering snow levels as a cold front passes from the west and another from the north.
TFJ Made the decision this morning to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning, excluding our northern tier zones.
An area of low pressure currently located just to the southeast of New Orleans will continue to propagate eastward over the next 24 hours. A cold front associated with this low pressure will push through the Florida Keys tomorrow morning.
1020 AM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 A fast northwesterly flow aloft prevailed between a Plains trough and upstream ridge with a 140-150kt 250mb jet streaking east along the Canadian border.
Max temps will be in the lower 70s across north Lake and Volusia where high cloudiness is already increasing. A cold front will cross the area overnight with a wind shift out of the W/NW though low CIGs should persist through sunrise. A high coverage of showers is expected across the waters as a cold front moves through the area overnight.
A ridge aloft over the southwestern CONUS will weaken and shift east over Texas on Monday. Expect the coldest readings to be in the low-lying areas and river valleys of our southern counties and into the Heartland. This should keep lows a little higher across that area, in the lower to mid 30s. The highs should be at or above 70 for most of our area.
Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 30s across the area. Surface ridging will gradually move east of the region late Monday which will allow for some light south winds to return to much of the area.
255 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Through Monday: As considerable moisture remains trapped in the low levels, a pesky deck of stratus clouds persists across the region this afternoon.
These two things will allow for slightly warmer minimums with a mix of 20s and 30s. Cooler readings can be expected over the snowpack by a few to several degrees. Slightly cooler highs can be expected over any remaining snowpack. Afternoon relative humidity will bottom out in the 30 to 50 percent range, so even with the warmer temps we are not expecting any fire weather concerns.
Latest surface analysis shows this morning's cold front now washed out with the weak boundary now located roughly over a NNE- SSW oriented line from CVG-SDF-BWG. Current satellite shows the low clouds persisting east of the I-65 corridor with clearing taking place west of there. Therefore, expect to see breezy conditions Monday late morning through the afternoon as a tight pressure gradient results from high pressure over the Central Plains and the aforementioned clipper to our north.
A lowering to IFR ceiling thresholds expected CKV/BNA/MQY by around 21/09Z-21/10Z as low level moisture associated with upper trough passage moves across mid state region.
Given the higher radar reflectivities continuing to spread southeast from MT, have issued a High Wind Warning for northwest SD into early evening. Winds behind the trough have increased, especially across NW SD.
A moist and quasi-stationary warm front draped near the WA/OR border will gradually lift northward across WA state tonight and will be just south of the BC border around sunrise on Monday. A strong cold front will arrive Monday evening. The GFS and MAV guidance are considerably stronger with surface winds up to 850mb compared to the NAM and MET guidance, and the HREF members are somewhere in between so went with the high resolution ensemble solutions. Snow levels will lower to near 1500 feet Monday night, but drier air behind the front will limit any significant snow accumulations in the lower elevations.
556 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: The back edge of the low cloud deck has pushed into the Delta region and will try to push east through the night. /GG/ Through Monday: As considerable moisture remains trapped in the low levels, a pesky deck of stratus clouds persists across the region this afternoon.
Winds behind the trough have increased, especially across NW SD.
Clearing on Monday as high pressure builds into the area with some cooler air also filtering in. As high pressure builds in Monday, the gradient relaxes and winds and seas will subside below advisory levels.
Good radiational cooling tonight will result in overnight lows dropping to around freezing.
A ridge will continue to build into the southwest leading to above normal temperatures over the next few days.
High pressure dominates the region today resulting in continued dry conditions. After a midweek ridge, models are trending the sinking storm track which gives us a better shot at some actual rain. Right now we're watching for the formations of a cutoff low sliding along the underside of a digging trough while transiting the east Pac. As this cutoff moves toward the coast, it looks like the broader trough will lift the cutoff and absorb it into the overall pattern. The trailing part of the broader upper trough is forecast to make the slow slide across the region on the 26th and 27th. SFO Bridge Approach. Winds will weaken Monday morning before the next cold front Monday evening where showers and post- frontal stronger winds return over the waters.
Allowed the high wind warning to expire for those regions.
/issued 205 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020/ Light northerly surface flow continues today, though a building ridge to the west is still allowing for a warmer afternoon, with highs expected to top out in the upper 50s and 60s for most locations across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. The aforementioned ridge will slide eastward across the region tomorrow, and coincident with southerly return flow, will yield even warmer temperatures in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees for most.
Weak upper level ridge will remain over south Texas through the period.
Disturbance moving through will help carve out a trough over the Great Lakes Monday while the next disturbance moves into the Pacific NW.
High clouds moving overhead are beginning to thin out per satellite in a north-northwest flow as drier air moves in as a result of high pressure out west shifting eastward.
Therefore, the winds will go light in the evening and return quickly to the south through the night bringing warmer air back. As for temperatures, the pacific air will be mixed up tonight with lows only in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
The main concern during the TAF period will be WS as a weak cold front approaches the area tonight.
530 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Short range starts out rather quiet and warm with some weak ridging pushing through.
247 PM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 High pressure will build across the Desert Southwest today into Monday, resulting in a decent warming trend. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s on Monday for the lower deserts with a near record high possible for Phoenix.
The low center will be near the Twin Ports by 12Z/6AM Monday, and over lower Michigan by 6PM Monday. The largest snow amounts will be found on the northwest side of the low center during its travels.
/Issued 257 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020/ Low pressure over the north central Gulf will drift eastward overnight.
730 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 Low pressure is currently moving across southern GA/FL peninsula. High pressure will then build in from the south and west. /Issued 257 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020/ Low pressure over the north central Gulf will drift eastward overnight.
A FM group was added to the late afternoon and early evening hours to account for a wind shift as a result of a weak cold frontal passage and a small but noticeable decrease in the winds.
Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop to around the freezing mark.
A fast-moving low will push a warm front through the area this afternoon which will quickly be followed by a weak cold front. At the onset, current thinking has most of the northern half of the forecast area and eastern ridges seeing snow, the far southern portions of the CWA seeing rain, and a rain/snow mix somewhere in between. However, exact timing of the rain/snow transition lines remains uncertain due to the incoming cooler air aloft and slight wet-bulbing battling remnant warm advection at the sfc.
1137 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Short range starts out rather quiet and warm with some weak ridging pushing through.
1032 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 Currently - An elongated multi centered trough extends from off the mid Atlantic coast, across north Florida and extends into the Gulf of mexico. An associated frontal boundary is marching southeastwards through the gulf of Mexico with a band of showers and a few thunderstorms aligned along the leading prefrontal trough. The Keys are in a rather weak pressure pattern ahead of this trough. As the prefrontal trough nears, winds will shift further south and southwest towards morning. A cold front is expected to move through Keys waters tomorrow, and should begin pushing into the deep gulf waters early in the morning. A cold front is expected to push through the area early tomorrow.
A warm front will move north of the area tomorrow, ending the precipitation in the afternoon.
133 AM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 High clouds stream into the northern plains as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front is nearly through the CWA, and northwesterly winds remain gusty across portions of the western SD plains. As the upper ridge axis shifts over the central states over the next couple of days, dry and mild weather can be expected.
213 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 The midweek system and associated cold front are the main items of interest in this forecast.
1255 AM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 Rain chances will continue overnight as low pressure along the NC Coast gradually moves away from the region.
(Today and tonight) Weak boundary will work south through the area this morning, bringing in an airmass off the higher terrain to our northwest.
Showers continue to move across the I-4 corridor southward as upper level low and associated cold front pushes through the Florida Peninsula this morning. This will limit how much warmth we get keeping our highs in the upper 60s north to the low 70s elsewhere.
Widespread rain will develop overnight night as a warm front spreads across the region. While most of the lowlands in the Inland Northwest will receive rain, the Methow Valley and portions of the Okanogan Highlands will get wet snow Monday morning.
/Issued 730 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020/ Low pressure is currently moving across southern GA/FL peninsula. High pressure will then build in from the south and west. /Issued 257 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020/ Low pressure over the north central Gulf will drift eastward overnight.
832 PM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 Seeing some reports of freezing rain in the observations around Rexburg and Driggs this evening. Thing the best threat for freezing rain is from Idaho Falls northwards towards St.
Much like yesterday, an impulse of energy associated with an upper low over the Pac NW is expected to advect northeast through the northern Rockies during the afternoon and evening generating showers and thunderstorms. With a trough of low pressure at the surface promoting easterly flow and good instability and effective shear over the area, strong to severe storms are possible over mainly western and northern areas, similar to yesterday. Behind the convection from this afternoon and evening, a cold front will cross the area overnight with some isolated to scattered showers possible. Slightly cooler conditions and less shower and thunderstorm coverage can be expected on Saturday. Models are still showing a deeper trough developing over the Pacific Northwest by mid-week, but have significant spread in the evolution.
Large area of mid and high clouds continues as mid-level jet ahead of the eastern Pacific trough remains overhead NorCal. Current temperatures range from the 40s to lower 50s in the mountains to the lower to mid 60s across the Central Valley. Gradual warming is expected across the region the next few days as the trough slowly weakens.
Previous Another hot and humid day can be expected across the area today with an upper ridge nosing in from the west.
254 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy afternoon winds and below average temperatures today. Southwest flow aloft will prevail through the weekend with low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. After some enhancement to afternoon winds in many spots today (gusts 25-30 mph, 30-35 mph in isolated spots), winds will ease back to 20-25 mph for most areas over the weekend as the upper trough weakens and thermal gradients relax some.
and Saturday Upper winds veering to the northwest and cool outflow from convection will combine to push a weak cold front to the south today. The air behind is not much cooler or drier but should be enough to keep precipitation mostly to our south once the current activity exits the area.
518 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Stable high pressure will bring increasing warmth and humidity to the region through tonight. A cold front will settle south through the forecast area Saturday.
321 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Large upper low is sitting along the Pac NW coast, with upper ridging sitting across northern Great Plains. At the surface, low pressure is persistent across Wyoming. Thermal ridge across the CWA today will result in hot conditions. Weather will remain dry today and again Saturday, which will end up being the warmer of the two days.
Convection will be diurnally driven in nature, with the highest chances focused across central Georgia where the deepest moisture is expected.
Latest satellite imagery picking up on some high clouds across northern Carbon County and portions of Converse County keeping many under clear skies and cooler conditions from the previous daytime highs. Our current ridging pattern continues across the region maintaining a fairly consistent forecast from the previous days. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the Panhandle from the mid to upper 90s, a 100 degree temperature may even be in sight. Over the mountains will be from the 60s on the highest peaks to mid 80s in the valleys.
No significant changes to temps/pops/winds in current forecast showing highest rain chances (40-50 percent) over interior sections and the lowest (25 percent) along the Volusia coast. An increase in showers and storms are expected over the local Atlc waters tonight as an inverted trough moves into the region.
/EC/ Today through tonight: The convective scenario for today could end up being similar to yesterday as we watch a meandering upper level low continue to dig southward around the eastern periphery of an expanding subtropical high over the central CONUS. Colder air aloft (H500 T ~ -10 deg C) and lift associated with the low will continue to interact with a very moist airmass to bring another round of potentially organized storms today per latest CAM guidance.
/issued 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Deep South Texas will remain positioned between mid-level ridging stretching from the Central Plains into the Desert Southwest and an inverted trough over the southeastern U. Saturday, at least during the day, looks to trend a bit drier with slightly less low-level moisture but we'll still need to keep an eye for a stray shower or two along the coast with the seabreeze and from the north as the inverted trough slowly advances into Southeast Texas.
The low pressure system which has brought well below normal temperatures to central CA continues to push slowly into the west coast. High pressure centered near northern Mexico will expand gradually northward during the next several days and will increase heights and thicknesses across our area.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Deep South Texas will remain positioned between mid-level ridging stretching from the Central Plains into the Desert Southwest and an inverted trough over the southeastern U. Saturday, at least during the day, looks to trend a bit drier with slightly less low-level moisture but we'll still need to keep an eye for a stray shower or two along the coast with the seabreeze and from the north as the inverted trough slowly advances into Southeast Texas.
Fortunately, bulk shear will be rather weak in the 15-20kt range and wet bulb zero up around 13kft (warmer -melting bigger hailstones as they fall). Mid/upper level ridge amplifies over the region Saturday, warming temperatures into the mid 80s/lower 90s.
Today Through Saturday Night Warm and humid conds were noted acrs the region early this mrng, with predawn readings in the lower and mid 70s. Scattered SHRA/ISOLD TSRA have started to form ovr NE AR the past few hrs, assocd with a upper impulse rotating arnd the upper low. This wl allow the upper low to sloly drop to the SW, along the ERN periphery of the upper rdg, heading into the weekend. For today, have the highest PoPs ovr the ERN part of the FA this mrng, shifting more to the S and W heading into this aftn hours. On Sat, the upper low wl be shifting toward ERN TX/WRN LA, with the focus for additional convection expected ovr the SW half of the FA.
These clouds have been acting to keep temperatures a but cooler in the southern portion of the Sacramento Valley with highs in the low 80s, with the northern half of the Valley reaching into the upper 80s by late afternoon.
Mesonet observations indicate that we are running about 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, but our forecast highs reflect that.
Dew points have climbed into the lower 60s for the most part.
Current temperature guidance is near or slightly warmer than the previous run. Going by model bias, consensus, and performance, I went a little warmer for tomorrow than today.
Although greatest chances this afternoon will lie across the higher terrain due to differential heating, with the warm, humid, unstable atmosphere in place, feel that it can't be completely ruled out elsewhere.
The only caveat is that there will likely be some convective development in the higher terrain over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico, that could drift east in it's dissipation phase. With little change in airmass, Saturday should be much a repeat of Today's weather, with highs again soaring into the low 90s before noon and into the upper 90s by the middle of the afternoon.