Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Main focus overnight is on weakening cold front approaching from the Grt Lks, which is progged to push into northwest Pa around dawn. The dying cold front is progged to sag southward across the region Friday, accompanied by no more than an increase in cloudiness for most of the region. High pressure will edge southeast from the Grt Lks tonight, as the dying cold front settles just south of the CWA.
The remainder of the day will be on the cooler side with and easterly surface flow and highs in the lower end of the mid 70s. And still a very comfortable day with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
A weak upper ridge will build across the area on Friday which will bring dry weather to most areas, except for a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the far north - from Baker County to the West Central Mountains.
Upper level high pressure continues to remain over the southern NV region with west to northwest flow over the Panhandles for the next couple days. Strong daytime heating along the lee side of the high in combination of decent surface moisture will setup inverted V profiles, with 800-1500J/kg of CAPE.
357 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest, with Texas remaining on the eastern periphery of the upper high through tonight. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with lows in the lower 70s.
1234 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The cold front has moved to through much of the area this afternoon.
259 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Models continue to show a weak cold front dipping south into our far north/northwest counties by late today.
it should be a quiet short term with high pressure continuing to dominate area weather. expect a few clouds moving through with continued dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures. lows tonight will a bit warmer with reading across most valley locations expect to be in the 60s.
249 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Large MCS to the south making sure that the low level instability remains locked up to the south today and tonight as weak upper level support brings a threat for showers and thunderstorms to the area. So, much of the reflectivity in the high res models during this time will either not reach the ground or will fall as very light precipitation. The main effects that will be seen across the area will be increasing clouds which will keep temperatures on the cooler side.
347 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A pressure ridge extending through the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions today.
1142 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as a weak cold front crosses and high pressure builds in behind it.
It should be a quiet TAF period with high pressure in control.
An influx of deeper tropical moisture (with precipitable water values near 2 inches) and the slow approach of a weak inverted 500 mb trough will result in a steady increase from east to west of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Models keep the strong upper high over the Plains which should keep Dorian away from the mid state and any of it's impacts.
435 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A quiet start to the short term with high pressure continuing to exert its influence over the local area. We will see inverted trough off the Florida coast begin to rotate westward but bet moisture profile remains outside the local area and thus will keep the forecast pop free.
252 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 For the most part, expecting a large area of high pressure at the surface to be the dominant feature over the region. The high will provide mostly sunny skies today it drifts east from the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The high will drift off into the Great Lakes tonight with the ridge axis extending back toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A short wave trough will be moving across the High Plains into the Missouri River Valley. 00z models show the higher precipitation chances south of the Minnesota/Iowa border Saturday.
However, there is a decent batch of cloudiness upstream associated with a weak upper trough. Afternoon will bring isolated convection to the lower elevations. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s on the plains with the far northeast corner seeing highs 10 degrees cooler. A strong upper ridge is forecast to dominate Colorado weather for the holiday weekend.
435 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Dry high pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern today into the start of the weekend.
Drier and warmer conditions can be expected into the holiday weekend. High pressure will build into the state Friday and remain in place through the weekend.
Saturday will see temps a bit higher with stronger southerly flow and a few showers possible as a developing warm front lifts north across the international border.
Tonight Through Saturday High pressure aloft is over the southwest U. High pressure is in control of the area and nothing is noted on radar. An upper level trough will move into north Arkansas tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the north and west. A second trough moves through Saturday but rain should be confined to the north and west again. Highs Friday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s and in the mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday.
910 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019 A weak upper trough was advancing into the forecast area this evening and will swing through the night. Not a great deal of instability was present in Montana, with the highest capes over Idaho and Wyoming. High pressure builds back in from the west beginning late Friday night, and persists into the weekend.
329 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as a weak cold front crosses and high pressure builds in behind it.
651 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A cold front will move south through the region today into this evening.
Weakening upper level low pressure will exit to the east this morning, resulting in clearing skies for all areas by this afternoon. Seasonably hot temperatures will prevail today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the lower elevations.
06Z surface data has the cold front running from lower Michigan to near KSTJ and then west across northern Kansas.
/issued 344 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ A surface inverted trough lifting northwest out of the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today is helping to transition low level winds across the forecast area back to northeasterly this morning, and then easterly by this afternoon and generally holding through the upcoming weekend.
Clouds will keep highs Saturday in the low 70s. The forecast concerns in the longer term is timing of short wave troughs and attendant cold fronts and overall temperature trends.
The combination of cloudy skies and limited insolation combined with cooler air filtering in will promote highs to be about 10-15 degrees below seasonable normals. Cooler air should be well maintained today with only so-so mixing expected and 850 hPa temperatures expected to be below the 25th percentile overhead at LBF with respect to climo. Current thinking is isolated- widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with activity anticipated to move off the higher terrain initially late today.
A dry airmass, along with clear skies and light winds has allowed temperatures to drop into the mid 40s, to the low 50s.
206 AM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through Labor Day as high pressure continues to dominate the region along with dry conditions.
expect a quiet 24 hours with high pressure continuing to dominate across the Southern Appalachian Region.
At this point, the high anvil cirrus clouds in MO and AR will tend to dissipate before reaching much past the MS River. The aforementioned ridge will continue to amplify over the weekend, and high temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s.
254 AM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure aloft and drier air will trigger another warmup over the next couple of days.
High pressure ridging will begin to build over the state late tonight continuing through Saturday. This will bring sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
/issued 435 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ A quiet start to the short term with high pressure continuing to exert its influence over the local area. We will see inverted trough off the Florida coast begin to rotate westward but bet moisture profile remains outside the local area and thus will keep the forecast pop free.
431 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Drier and warmer conditions can be expected into the Holiday weekend.
557 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A cold front has dropped into Central Illinois, in the vicinity of I-72 in the pre dawn hours. High pressure contracting into the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS as a cold front slowly drops through Central IL and into the Ohio River Valley this evening. The southwestern 500 mb ridge grows through the first portion of the weekend, starting to shift the pattern to more northwesterly aloft.
There will be decreasing afternoon storm coverage and warmer afternoon temperatures across northern Arizona through Saturday.
632 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A pressure ridge extending through the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions today.
344 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Dakotas, with a frontal boundary nearly stationary to the south and west of the region. Upper level analysis shows a large trough over the eastern US, with near zonal flow from the Pacific NW into the Plains. Temps are mostly in the 50s, with some 40s across the higher Black Hills. Unsettled and slightly cooler weather is expected for today as the disturbance moves through the area. Weak ridging will build over the Rockies during the holiday weekend, bringing a warming trend for Saturday through Labor Day.
515 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Dakotas, with a frontal boundary nearly stationary to the south and west of the region. Upper level analysis shows a large trough over the eastern US, with near zonal flow from the Pacific NW into the Plains. Temps are mostly in the 50s, with some 40s across the higher Black Hills. Unsettled and slightly cooler weather is expected for today as the disturbance moves through the area. Weak ridging will build over the Rockies during the holiday weekend, bringing a warming trend for Saturday through Labor Day.
/Issued 355 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ Upper level ridging will continue to slowly drift west through today.
614 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Large MCS to the south making sure that the low level instability remains locked up to the south today and tonight as weak upper level support brings a threat for showers and thunderstorms to the area. So, much of the reflectivity in the high res models during this time will either not reach the ground or will fall as very light precipitation. The main effects that will be seen across the area will be increasing clouds which will keep temperatures on the cooler side.
1030 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Sharp moisture boundary extending from the FL Big Bend to the Carolina coast due to a stalled frontal trof alng the I-4 Corridor. A weak, inverted trof axis extending from Cape Canaveral to Havana has allowed H100-H70 winds to veer to the E/SE at 10-15KTS. Weak inverted trof axis extending from Cape Canaveral to Havana will work its way into the ern GOMex today.
Temperatures are quite cool under the influence of high pressure with some locations dipping into the 30s.
615 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Currently - A low level trough is centered broadly over the Florida Straits and northwestern Caribbean Sea. First, the broad lower level trough aligned across our area will likely receive some convective support as the previously mentioned TUTT cell moves nearer the Florida peninsula. The lower level trough will migrate westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, taking with it the cyclonic flow and moisture. Expect winds to collapse as a narrow ridge between the two lows moves into the area. Much of this uncertainty has to do with Dorian's current small size, possible resolution issues of nearby TUTT cell, and the eventual strength and extent of a building ridge across the southeast.
556 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the area, but the severe weather concerns have subsided for the night as the low level environment stabilizes within the large expanse of moderate to heavy rain. As the low level jet weakens through the morning expect the rain to gradually subside the northwest to the southeast.
545 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as a weak cold front crosses and high pressure builds in behind it.
401 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 An MCS has quickly pushed through the state early this morning ahead of a surface cold front, and CAMs have generally been slow with the progression of these storms as the main line is already in southeastern KS and northern OK as of 08Z this morning. This will bring a returning chance for developing showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances just southwest of the forecast area late tonight into early Saturday morning. The resulting cloud cover Friday and Saturday will likely keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
The higher resolution models are keying on some potential isolated storms farther south in the eastern highlands.
High pressure aloft will form over the region for warmer and drier conditions through the holiday weekend. Upper level pattern is currently showing a weak ridge over the West Coast with west-northwest flow aloft over Montana. There is good model agreement that the upper level ridge along the West Coast will progress inland and over the Northern Rocky Mountain Region for mostly dry and warmer conditions on Saturday.
High pressure aloft will form over the region for warmer and drier conditions through the holiday weekend. mpj /ISSUED 530 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ Upper level pattern is currently showing a weak ridge over the West Coast with west-northwest flow aloft over Montana. There is good model agreement that the upper level ridge along the West Coast will progress inland and over the Northern Rocky Mountain Region for mostly dry and warmer conditions on Saturday.
Expect this quiet weather to continue today as high pressure continues to influence surface weather. This high will shift to the east today and will allow dewpoints to begin to increase and daytime highs may be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 65 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 61 87 60 / 0 0 10 10.
However, the high cloud bases and an overall lack of low level moisture have resulted in manly trace amounts of precipitation being realized thus far. Once this feature passes to the east high pressure will begin to build over the Intermountain West and nose northward into the Northern Rockies over the weekend.
The low level convergence coupled with increasing moisture boundary layer moisture profiles will continue to spark off convection through the day and into the evening hours. The highest rain chances will reside south (Gainesville/Ocala) and right along the immediate coast were low level forcing is maximized. Onshore flow will continue as high pressure continues to sit across the southern Appalachians.
944 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure will remain across the area into the weekend. A tad warmer today but still another bonus wx day for late Aug. Center of sfc hi pres will slowly slide off the coast late today w/ a weak lee trough developing just E of the mountains. a weak cold front (w/ minimal moisture) will slide S across the FA.
/issued 357 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest, with Texas remaining on the eastern periphery of the upper high through tonight. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with lows in the lower 70s.
The MCV will have drifted east of the region as the an upper level trough drops into the Boot Heel region.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather through tonight maintaining the dry airmass over the region.
Models continue to show a weak cold front dipping south into our far north/northwest counties by late today.
806 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday as a weak cold front crosses and high pressure builds in behind it.
Winds begin to decrease into Friday evening as high pressure keeps conditions dry through the end of the TAF period. High pressure building into the area in the wake of a passing cold front will provide quiet weather into the beginning of the weekend.
556 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 For the most part, expecting a large area of high pressure at the surface to be the dominant feature over the region. The high will provide mostly sunny skies today it drifts east from the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The high will drift off into the Great Lakes tonight with the ridge axis extending back toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A short wave trough will be moving across the High Plains into the Missouri River Valley. 00z models show the higher precipitation chances south of the Minnesota/Iowa border Saturday.
Current temperatures are a little cooler in most areas compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 40s in the colder mountain valleys to the 60s and lower 70s in the Central Valley. Little change in the synoptic pattern the next several days as the region will remain between strong high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest and a trough off the coast of the PacNW. Temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees the next couple of days as onshore flow wanes and the ridge strengthens slightly.
244 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A pressure ridge extending through the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions today.
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 An upper trough will slowly move through the state through the period. Hi-Res models overall cont to show a diminishing trend in coverage and intensity of the storms later this mrng as the low lvl jet diminishes and the activity moves into a more stable environment over our FA. This feature wl interact with the higher available moisture lvls to produce sctd convection.
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A cold front across southeast Illinois, just south of I-70, will be the focus for scattered showers and isolated storms through tonight. Additional chances for showers and storms will come Saturday and Saturday night, with the overnight period having the higher chances. A swirl of energy moving across southern Illinois along the cold front will be the focus for periodic showers across areas south of I-72 tonight. If that occurs, lows near Galesburg could dip into the mid 50s, while areas south of I-70 see low temps in the low to mid 60s.
251 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A pressure ridge extending through the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions today.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. For the remainder of the forecast period expect upper level high pressure over the SW US to slowly build into the Mid-South. Expect highs in the lower 90s with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.
246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Currently a surface front is situated roughly along the Highway 54 corridor. a flat ridge was located across the southern CONUS while the main storm track was located from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes.
Convection was quickly forming in the vicinity of the trough and front, and moving east to southeast. Short range models concur that a drier and warmer airmass will return Saturday as the flow aloft becomes zonal.
1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Large MCS to the south making sure that the low level instability remains locked up to the south today and tonight as weak upper level support brings a threat for showers and thunderstorms to the area. So, much of the reflectivity in the high res models during this time will either not reach the ground or will fall as very light precipitation. The main effects that will be seen across the area will be increasing clouds which will keep temperatures on the cooler side.
At the surface, high pressure is located across the eastern Dakotas with low pressure across central WY. Temperature across the forecast area at 2pm range from the lower 60s east to the mid 70s west.
340 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The center of the flat ridge will drift across the southern Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast through the period.
A moderate ne flow over the area with high pressure to the north will persist with locally heavy rainfall possible in convergent rain bands. The highest rain chances will be across ne Fl and coastal se Ga where higher moisture values exist.
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 For the most part, expecting a large area of high pressure at the surface to be the dominant feature over the region. The high will provide mostly sunny skies today it drifts east from the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The high will drift off into the Great Lakes tonight with the ridge axis extending back toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A short wave trough will be moving across the High Plains into the Missouri River Valley. 00z models show the higher precipitation chances south of the Minnesota/Iowa border Saturday.
High pressure aloft will form over the region for warmer and drier conditions through the holiday weekend. - Fogleman /ISSUED 530 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019/ Upper level pattern is currently showing a weak ridge over the West Coast with west-northwest flow aloft over Montana. There is good model agreement that the upper level ridge along the West Coast will progress inland and over the Northern Rocky Mountain Region for mostly dry and warmer conditions on Saturday.
In between the two ridges is a surface boundary that moved through the area very early today, in conjunction with heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. Light rain and cloud cover could linger most of the day before drier and warmer weather returns for the last half of the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will continue to warm gradually in succeeding days, although the approach of Hurricane Dorian is blocking any chance we have for return flow, so although temperatures have more or less returned to late-summer normals, the lack of moisture advection means we'll stay with this dry air mass for the foreseeable future.
1114 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 A pressure ridge extending through the Southern Appalachians will bring dry conditions today.
High pressure will keep skies mostly clear and winds light. This will allow for radiational cooling to help temps reach seasonable values in the lower 60s. High pressure will build into the region this weekend increasing temps back into the lower 90s. Won't have to worry about heat index values this weekend with the dry air in place! A trough will swing through the Great Lakes on Saturday and pull a front into the region but it will hang up to our north.
1245 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High pressure will lead to quiet weather today and tonight.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON LABOR DAY WITH A COUPLE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE A band of showers continues south of the Missouri River and a few isolated showers continue to affect Sheridan County.
For tonight and Saturday, our dominant weather feature will be an upper level high, which will shift from the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region by Saturday evening. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s, with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 90s.
Our region remains at the outlet of the upper ridge to our w and a trof over the Mid and Upper MS River Valley, and this has set up a sort of quasi-nw flow scenario that would be more common to us during early June.
An inverted trough centered across the FL Peninsula will propagate westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Associated with the trough, a plume of deep layer moisture will move from east to west across the tri-state region bringing an end to the dry weather pattern we've been seeing the last few days.