Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
721 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario with broad trough extending through the central CONUS. At the surface, a trough extended into northeast Lake Superior from low pressure near the southern end of Georgian Bay. Tonight, expect some clearing into the west half of Upper Michigan as high pressure and drier air builds toward the area. High pressure building over the area will bring more sunshine even as the cool weather remains. 850 mb temps in the -1C to -3C range will only support max temps in the low to mid 50s south while onshore keeps readings in the 40s over the north.
High pressure will build into the region for the mid to late week period driving warming trend temperatures and dry conditions. There are also some hints of a few showers this evening over far northern Utah, associated with the trough axis passage. Suspect that even if these materialize, we would not see precip reaching valley floors anyways given dewpoint depressions of 25F+, with any chances being limited to the higher terrain. Generally quiet weather with a warming trend is in store for the area through the middle of the week as a high-amplitude ridge builds into the western US.
747 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021 A cold front will continue to move through to Southeast Ohio tonight. An upper level disturbance is forecast to travel up the cold front late tonight.
837 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021 Shower and thunderstorm activity will end with passage of a cold front on Wednesday. The front will make little progress initially, waiting for an upper trough axis to swing into the Ohio Valley to provide a push. A weak wave of low pressure will ride along the boundary overnight, reaching the Central Appalachians by sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible until cold frontal passage Wednesday. Once this occurs, partial clearing and overall drying is anticipated as high pressure moves in behind the front.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop just ahead of the cold front that is starting to enter the far northwest part of the CWA this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms and an approaching cold front will bring MVFR/IFR cigs and vis tonight as well as northwesterly/northerly winds by sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact terminals this evening, with the cold front moving through overnight additional chances for showers and storms will bring cigs down to MVFR and IFR, and even LIFR at KCSV by 12Z.
928 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Generally cooler than average temperatures, along with mostly dry conditions, continue to be the main focus for the forecast period. There is a signal for stronger westerly winds, but also more widespread rain showers as a mid-level impulse makes its way into the region on the backside of the upper low.
620 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Generally cooler than average temperatures, along with mostly dry conditions, continue to be the main focus for the forecast period. There is a signal for stronger westerly winds, but also more widespread rain showers as a mid-level impulse makes its way into the region on the backside of the upper low.
High pressure currently over the ern Dakotas and wrn MN will then move across WI for Wed aft-eve.
739 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021 Broad area of low pressure will drag a cold front across the region tonight, which will support unsettled weather through at least the first half of Wednesday. Noticeably cooler air will filter in behind the slow moving system late Wednesday and remain in place through the end of this week with temperatures progged to average close to 10 degrees below normal. With the cooler temperatures across the area, along with the preceding conditions, frost may form across the cooler spots in southwestern New York.
A cold front and a few final waves of energy will continue to push east through the area this evening taking any precipitation chance with it and ushering in cooler air. Troughing over the East Coast in concert with a broad upper low over central Canada and ridging over the West Coast is the pattern that starts the long range period.
Broad cyclonic flow is evident through much of North America on 20Z water vapor imagery as this morning's upper trough axis pushes east. High pressure is dominant over the Northern and Central Plains at the surface, with a northerly breeze keeping temps on the cool side, although clearing skies have at least allowed us to get to the low/mid 60s. High clouds look to begin to move into north central KS around sunrise ahead of the next disturbance, which may help keep temperatures a few degrees warmer for those areas.
Starting to get a few healthy showers going along the cold front over the Pennyrile from Providence toward Calhoun. More widespread showers and possibly a few brief storms are expected to spread east across the region as the upper trough moves through this evening.
Stalled frontal/outflow boundary has developed across southeast Louisiana into coastal Mississippi with a cold front extending from a low over central Louisiana across southwest Louisiana. The combination of the low level convergence and larger scale lift from upper level divergence will maintain a pattern to support bands and clusters of strong to locally severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning and very heavy downpours capable of quickly producing ponding and some flooding.
339 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Expect rain showers early today before conditions trend drier and cooler this afternoon behind a gusty northwest wind.
128 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front will continue to move through to Southeast Ohio tonight. An upper level disturbance is forecast to travel up the cold front late tonight.
329 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Cold front is draped from near Hammond LA southwest acrs lower Acadiana and over the nearshore waters. Behind the front, cooler and drier air is moving into the area, with temperatures near 60 degrees acrs the northern zones, upper 60s acrs SW LA and lower SE TX, while lower 70s continue in the vicinity of the front.
305 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Areas of fog and low clouds along with occasional light rain showers will linger through the morning before a cold front and drier air sweeps across the region from west to east this afternoon and tonight, bringing clearing skies and cool conditions tonight.
Moderate NW wind reinforces cooler air over the region which maintains the supply of clouds into the afternoon, although early May daytime heating provides a chance to lift ceiling into VFR. Steady NW wind reinforces cooler air and returns mainly MVFR clouds late tonight through the morning. Differential CAA continues tonight with flow backing southwest aloft as the governing upper low drifts east into northern Ontario. Associated trough axis slowly pivots through Lower Michigan overnight, but speeds remain rather weak IVOF the wave with only minor height falls.
A dry and cool air mass will support temperatures dropping to slightly below normal tonight, though not quite cold enough for frost in the lower valleys.
243 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Upper troughing with cool weather and occasional showers - Upper troughing with cool weather and occasional showers Model guidance has been relatively stable the past couple days depicting the main synoptic features influencing weather across the central Great Lakes.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening in southeast Colorado. Prevailing southerlies ahead of an approaching cold front will draw warmer air into southwest/central Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up around 12C in central Kansas to well above 15C closer to the Colorado border.
with cold front trailing back through the Black Hills/northeast Wyoming.
In this narrow zone saturation occurred as dew pts rose into the low-mid 30s.
The cold front that crossed the area last night, will stall just south of the forecast area this morning. Cooler air will overspread the region today.
305 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Early this morning, low pressure centered over Pennsylvania had a cold front stretching southwest through West Virginia and eastern Tennessee while high pressure spilled southward from central Canada into the northern Plains. Temperatures across the area were in the 40s to lower 50s with dew points in the low to middle 40s and northwesterly winds around 5 to 12 mph were common. The pressure gradient should decrease during the afternoon as high pressure arrives and low pressure center gets further away, so while wind gusts may be seen during the late morning and early afternoon expect those to decrease by late afternoon. With high pressure moving through and just to the east tonight, winds should be light and skies mostly clear until the morning.
927 PM PDT Tue May 4 2021 High pressure aloft will bring another warm day Wednesday.
1130 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Cool, below-average temperatures are expected for tonight and in the wake of the cyclone that brought us severe weather last night. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will veer to the south, which will result in a warmer day with highs in the 70s deg F.
A cold front, already through GLH-GWO wl continue to drift south through the area through 14Z and bring about a wind shift to the nw. The cold front is currently over the Mid-South area & will move into the NW Delta/NW of the Natchez Trace just after midnight & sweep SE through the region by daybreak. The high instability and strong deep shear environment ahead of the line will promote high damaging wind potential as it moves through.
As expected, cloud cover has also begun to gradually build in from the west, keeping temperatures west of I-29 in the 40s with areas east of I-29 falling into the low to mid 30s under clear skies. Nonetheless, could still see these showers squeeze out a tenth to a quarter of an inch of precipitation, with the highest totals forecast occur along and north of Hwy 14. As a result, look for overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 30s, with the coldest temperatures along and north of Hwy 14.
231 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Showers and thunderstorms cross this morning as a wave and cold front pass through today.
350 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Cold air advection and subtle isentropic downglide will take place today as upper-level trough axis swings across Michigan between 12- 18Z.
1240 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Generally cooler than average temperatures, along with mostly dry conditions, continue to be the main focus for the forecast period. There is a signal for stronger westerly winds, but also more widespread rain showers as a mid-level impulse makes its way into the region on the backside of the upper low.
1142 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021 Low pressure will gradually move across Maine and New Hampshire tonight and Wednesday bringing rain to our region.
(Today and tonight) High pressure has settled in across much of the Southern Plains this morning, resulting in light winds. As the day progresses, this area of high pressure should start to push eastward, allowing winds to become easterly, then southeasterly. Overall, most places should see high temperatures about 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday. Areas such as the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley should reach the low 80s, where winds will be nearly southerly and return flow will be occurring. Despite the slight wind shift, this should have little to no effect on low temperatures, which will be 5-7 degrees warmer than this morning's minimums.
This evening through Wednesday night Today will be warmer with scattered showers. These showers will decrease in coverage through the evening and into tonight as upper- level ridging develops to the west. As the ridge builds in, warmer and drier weather is to be expected through the end of the term.
2) Cooler weather expected today and will continue for several days. Expect showers to linger into the daytime hours, with the highest coverage across northeast TN and southwest VA closer to the exiting jet providing support for the stronger storms to our north. In the forecast have held onto clouds a little longer than NBM guidance since I think the low level moisture will remain longer than the models anticipate (which is a common scenario in a frontal passage out here). The other weather that most people will notice after the front moves east of the mountains is the much cooler weather. Temperatures today are expected to be about 5 degrees below normal, and the lingering clouds blocking out the sun will make it seem that much colder.
This line is enhanced by a jet streak lifting northeast across the lower Ohio valley. Eventually we'll get to VFR conditions by the later part of the day ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 50 73 49 71 / 10 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 47 68 47 67 / 30 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 46 69 46 68 / 20 10 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 42 65 43 63 / 40 10 10 30 20.
1034 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 A boundary accompanying a long wave trough has been gradually moving through the region today. A small high pressure system behind the front brings a couple days of clear skies and calm conditions.
449 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front will cross the region today with a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm east of the Blue Ridge.
330 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 A broad upper trough is over most of the country.
336 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure will move over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys today.
There may be a break in the action this afternoon before a thunderstorm or two this evening along actual cold front.
335 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Upper level ridging continues to hold over southern Florida today while surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic across southern Florida. With ridging at the surface and aloft today, near record warm temperatures will continue, with highs in the mid 90s over the interior and around 90 along the coast.
249 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Mostly quiet weather is expected to continue today and tonight with dry northwest flow aloft and a slowly approaching upper ridge axis just to our west. Otherwise look for modest low level southerly flow developing today and high temperatures climbing near or slightly warmer than normal for early May: lower to mid 80s.
246 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure was in the process of settling over the region early this morning. This brought clear skies, light winds and cooler temperatures. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 40s shortly after midnight with morning lows expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the most part. Overnight lows will once again be cooler, in the lower to middle 40s, but cloud cover should keep temperatures from cooler much more.
Ridging building in tomorrow will bring warm temps with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
Should begin to see some clearing throughout the day, but temps will be cooler than yesterday with most of the area remaining in the 60s. Deepening upper-level trough will set up into tomorrow with a corresponding surface frontal boundary racing towards us by tomorrow afternoon.
/issued 629 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021/ TAF sites are currently a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings, as the low- pressure pulls through the region. High pressure will continue to build southward through the evening into the overnight hours and winds will begin to slacken.
With the Gulf cut off, moisture is somewhat limited with the trough, though mid-level instability is quite impressive with rare nocturnal thunder occurring there. Temps today should be close to yesterday's highs in the lower 60s. The trough moving out of the Northern Rockies will bring a chance of rain to the area late this evening and overnight.
235 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 It's a cool, crisp morning across the region for early May, as morning temperatures have dipped into the lower 40s and upper 30s in some locations.
359 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Precipitation will taper off this morning and high pressure will provide decreasing clouds and cool weather through the rest of the day.
136 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario with broad trough extending through the central CONUS. At the surface, a trough extended into northeast Lake Superior from low pressure near the southern end of Georgian Bay. Tonight, expect some clearing into the west half of Upper Michigan as high pressure and drier air builds toward the area. High pressure building over the area will bring more sunshine even as the cool weather remains. 850 mb temps in the -1C to -3C range will only support max temps in the low to mid 50s south while onshore keeps readings in the 40s over the north.
223 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A weak frontal boundary will remain nearby into Wednesday morning, with a series of weak waves of low pressure tracking along it. A cold front will then move across Wednesday afternoon.
1141 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 With the cold front now off the coast, some drier air will be working its way southward into the area tonight and tomorrow. A cold front has progressed through most of the region through the morning and early afternoon today bringing with it showers and isolated strong thunderstorms. Precipitation chance will come to an end by the evening as high pressure quickly builds in behind the exiting front.
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1251 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Cold front has pushed offshore from the coast, with lingering cigs 040-050 extending from KVCT to KALI.
Cold front will continue to race through the region overnight, exiting the CWA sometime between 06z-09z. Until this trough exits to the east, isolated to scattered showers are still possible south and east of PIT. Cooler air will overspread the region today.
139 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A weak frontal boundary will remain nearby into Wednesday morning, with a series of weak waves of low pressure tracking along it. A cold front will then move across Wednesday afternoon.
226 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Showers and thunderstorms cross this morning as a wave and cold front pass through today.
(Today and tonight) Satellite and radar imagery showing some mid-level clouds over the High Plains and mostly virga moving into far northern Oklahoma early this morning. Will only bump MaxT temperatures up a degree from NBM to be closer to MAV guidance, which has been trending warmer over the last two runs.
A short wave trough was evident on water vapor satellite this morning just coming into the western Dakotas. An area of low pressure was over South Dakota this morning and this is expected to continue intensifying and then move east across Iowa and northern Illinois with the short wave trough tonight. The RAP is showing a nice band of frontogenesis on the north side of the low in the deformation area along with some persistent up glide of 1 to 2 ubar/s on the 290K isentropic surface.
A ridge of high pressure will amplify across the western US this afternoon, with the ridge axis setting up along the ID/WA border.
A cold front was steadily sweeping through the TN Valley early this morning, bringing a sharp wind shift to the northwest and a much-welcomed drier airmass. Anticipate a few areas may peak in the low 70s.
Latest satellite trends indicating patchy fog developing in the lower valley areas across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Surface ridging conditions along with clear skies will result in a rather chilly night, with widespread 40s expected.
242 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Showers and thunderstorms cross this morning as a wave and cold front pass through today.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop just ahead of the cold front that is starting to enter the far northwest part of the CWA this evening.
/issued 903 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021/ A cold front continues to push through the Mid-South this evening. Made some minor adjustments to POPS as wrap around showers behind the cold front are occurring across Northeast Arkansas. Dew points were in the low to mid 70s resulting in MLCAPE over 2000J/kg. A cold front has moved through Jonesboro, AR and Kennett, MO and will continue to move across the remainder of the Midsouth this evening and overnight.
Upper level ridging across the region will maintain dry conditions across Western Washington on Wednesday.
143 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A trof of low pressure crosses the area tonight. A cold front crosses the area late Wednesday.
1042 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure centered southeast of Bermuda stretches west across South Florida. The forecast calls for slight rain chances along the Lower Keys as daytime heating induces weak convergence along the southeasterlies. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will recede to the east today through Thursday.
1029 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front will cross the region today with a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm east of the Blue Ridge. Behind the front brings a return to cooler and drier conditions for Thursday.
Light northerly winds continue to prevail across South-Central Texas behind yesterday's cold front. Highs today will top out in the 79- 89 degree range across the area with the higher temperatures in the Rio Grande Plains. Clear skies will continue Thursday with highs a bit warmer, into the middle 80s to lower 90s.
728 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Aviation - Upper troughing with cool weather and occasional showers - Upper troughing with cool weather and occasional showers Model guidance has been relatively stable the past couple days depicting the main synoptic features influencing weather across the central Great Lakes.
This should help temperatures climb into the lows 70s despite some cold air advection behind the front near and west of the I-65 corridor. Overnight lows drop to the mid to upper 40s, but expect some valley locations to see the low 40s.
608 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 (Today and tonight) High pressure has settled in across much of the Southern Plains this morning, resulting in light winds. As the day progresses, this area of high pressure should start to push eastward, allowing winds to become easterly, then southeasterly. Overall, most places should see high temperatures about 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday. Areas such as the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley should reach the low 80s, where winds will be nearly southerly and return flow will be occurring. Despite the slight wind shift, this should have little to no effect on low temperatures, which will be 5-7 degrees warmer than this morning's minimums.
Actual cold front is just entering the northwest portion of the CWA.
05/12Z TAF CYCLE Last of the low clouds currently working out of far SE AR, vcnty of KLLQ. Today Through Thursday Night Cooler and drier air contd to advect into the Natural State overnight. Upper ridging wl cont to bld ovr the Wrn States, resulting a NW flow aloft ovr the Mid-South.
The chances for precipitation, however, will remain on the low side given an overall lack of moisture in the column, especially below 700 mb. Subsidence associated with the ridge will help clear cloud cover, but temperatures are only expected to top out in the mid and upper 60s for afternoon highs Thursday.
Showers will become more numerous as the upper trough traverses central Illinois on Thursday, with the greatest areal coverage of precip developing east of the I-55 corridor during the afternoon.
229 AM PDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure will shift east today with continued warm temperatures and typical afternoon winds. Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger winds Thursday along with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Expect a shot of cool Canadian air today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s today, with highs in the low to mid 70s on Thursday and noticeably lower humidity.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1059 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure will provide decreasing clouds and cool weather through the rest of the day. An area of low pressure will provide the next chance of showers late Thursday as chilly temperatures prevail through the end of the week. For Thursday, clouds will increase as a mid-level disturbance drops into the back side of the trough. Expecting considerable cloudiness to keep high temperatures down in the low to mid 60s. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.