Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1152 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper level trough is centered over the northern Rocky Mountains/Northern Plains and extends south to Arizona and New Mexico. High temperatures today are expected to be a degree or two cooler than yesterday as 850 mb temperatures cool slightly. Low temperatures for tonight will range from the 40s across the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s along the Rio Grande and Lower Trans Pecos. The upper trough will move over the Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday and the trough will extend southwestward over New Mexico and Arizona. This trough will increase lift over the area and will result in increased chances of showers and thunderstorms from Southeast New Mexico south to the Rio Grande on Tuesday.
Our friend the upper level ridge that has brought our area dry weather for at least a week will finally start shifting to the Ohio Valley. This will allow for an upper level trough to approach from the west but any showers should remain west of the dvn cwa through tonight.
Cooler late this week with areas of frost possible. Overnight lows are expected to get a few degrees cooler than the observed temperatures as the early morning progresses, with temperatures reaching the low 40s in the eastern CWA to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. With satellite imagery depicting a dry air mass overhead, and models showing an upper level ridging pattern over the area, expect dry weather and above normal temperatures in the mid 70s to low to mid 80s today. Tonight will be similar compared to the past few nights, with overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s.
254 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A trough axis is now exiting the Cowboy State. Ridging will begin to build into Wyoming today and bring a dry and seasonable day for the most part.
(Today through Monday) Dry and pleasant weather is expected to remain the rule across the Mid South this week as high pressure remains in full control. Each day will be a little warmer as the week progresses.
Presently, the upper level low that has been quasi-stationary over the past few days is centered over the western Dakotas and gradually sliding eastward.
111 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Temperatures were adjusted this evening across the I-75 corridor in SW Georgia as a shallow cloud deck this afternoon and evening has kept temperatures cooler there than observations so far tonight.
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure regime will keep things quiet through Tuesday night. Upper ridging with H5 heights currently near 585 dm is forecast to weaken some over the next 36 hours.
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 50s early this morning with upper 40s to low 50s forecast by daybreak. The upper level pattern features a closed low across the Mid- Atlantic with another closed low across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In between these closed lows, a ridge extends across the southern and central Plains to the northeast into the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is centered to the north of the area across the Great Lakes. There is a cold front associated with the upper level low to the northwest that is moving southeastward across the northern and central Plains. For today, a 70-90 kt jet will develop along the southern periphery of the closed low located across the Mid-Atlantic.
1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Continued ridging aloft will result in warm afternoon temperatures and cool to mild nights in the short term.
An upper level low will continue to slide east through the Northern Plains with a few weak disturbances moving around its periphery during the short term forecast. This will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area this evening. Decreasing cloudiness is then expect tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will start out from a southerly direction this afternoon shifting to the northwest behind the cold front by tonight. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s with highs tomorrow in the low 70s. Amplified ridge over the western CONUS will result in a rather blocky pattern across the central CONUS.
Low RH this afternoon with values ranging from the low to mid 30s across most areas. After the morning fog burns off, expect a beautiful day across the area with plenty of sun and slightly warmer temperatures. With drier air moving into the region from out of the north, expect low RH values this afternoon ranging from the low to upper 30s across most areas.
422 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A dry reinforcing cold front will continue to move through the area today. High pressure will then be in place across the area through the rest of the week and the weekend, with generally NE winds remaining across the area and dry conditions.
1131 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 GOES-16 Satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis still features an upper level trough axis over the Eastern United States with the remnants of Ian near the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis remains entrenched over portions of the Southern/Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley.
However, recent satellite images are already showing the marine stratus making its way inland, and there's a chance the lower conditions could develop at Roseburg an hour or two earlier.
943 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Most recent radar and observations show cold frontal boundary north/south oriented through central SD. Chances for showers will persist in the region through Tuesday as the upper trough axis, which currently sits over eastern Montana and Wyoming, will slowly move through the northern plains today and Tuesday. Chances for precipitation tapers off later Tuesday as the upper low fill and shifts east of the forecast area.
High pressure will build south across the area this period. A band of moisture, on leading edge of the ridge will move south of the area this morning, yielding mainly clear skies this afternoon through Tonight.
944 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The stubborn upper low that has impacted the area since late last week is now centered across eastern Montana, with the forecast area under general trailing troughiness. Otherwise, today will be drier for most, with temperatures a bit cooler east of the Divide and warmer by a few degrees west. Tuesday will be a pleasant fall day with seasonal temperatures as ridging begins to move in.
Radar imagery at midnight depicted scattered light rain showers across northwest Kansas, mainly over WFO GLD's CWA, where forcing for ascent ahead of the incoming trough was being focused. Kept slight chance pops (<25%) for the northwest zones through sunrise for any activity that sneaks in as the trough approaches, but the probability of measurable rain is very low. Closed 570 dm midlevel cyclone is forecast to reach central South Dakota by 7 pm Tuesday, with the trailing trough axis arriving over SW KS during the day. Scattered showers and limited thunder are expected daylight Tuesday with the trough's passage. Associated weak cold front will deliver a light north wind shift by late afternoon.
Cooler late this week with areas of frost possible. Overnight lows are expected to get a few degrees cooler than the observed temperatures as the early morning progresses, with temperatures reaching the low 40s in the eastern CWA to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. With satellite imagery depicting a dry air mass overhead, and models showing an upper level ridging pattern over the area, expect dry weather and above normal temperatures in the mid 70s to low to mid 80s today. Tonight will be similar compared to the past few nights, with overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Despite a cold front pushing through the area Wednesday through Wednesday night, limited moisture will keep the area from seeing any measurable precipitation.
and Wednesday A high pressure system over the central Great Lakes will slowly slide southeast through the middle of the week, allowing a weak cold front to slowly inch its way towards the western Great Lakes. The high should keep the weather mainly dry; however, some sprinkles could fall at times from a mid deck of clouds across mainly north-central and central Wisconsin today and tonight. Increased clouds will bring slightly cooler temperatures to north-central Wisconsin by Wednesday with highs expected to range from the upper 60s across north-central, with lower 70s across the rest of the area away from Lake Michigan.
954 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A cold front is moving southward across the central peninsula this morning, but the better moisture quality remains well to the east towards the Atlantic waters so no precipitation is expected locally with this frontal boundary. Otherwise, another pleasant day ahead with highs reaching the low 80s across the Nature Coast and mid 80s around the Tampa Bay area and southward. A dry reinforcing cold front will continue to move through the area today. High pressure will then be in place across the area through the rest of the week and the weekend, with generally NE winds remaining across the area and dry conditions.
Presently, the upper level low that has been quasi-stationary over the past few days is centered over the western Dakotas and gradually sliding eastward. Initially, an Arctic cold frontal boundary sweeps through the state from north to south on Wednesday.
547 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The blocking pattern over the country will continue to break down today, allowing an upper level trough currently in the northern High Plains to travel east across the north central CONUS today into Wednesday.
A cutoff low over the Mid Atlantic will remain in place today, keeping the ridging just to the west of our area.
Upper level ridging will build into the region for the remainder of the workweek.
514 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The upper low center was located over southwest ND/northwest SD with its trough axis into northeast CO. The model consensus has the upper low and associated trough moving east-southeast across the Dakotas through tonight and toward the Midwest Wednesday. Lingering moisture and weak instability on the backside of the departing upper low will keep small chances for showers today over the far northern NE Panhandle. A upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, with north-northwest flow aloft dominating the CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
611 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 An upper low will remain near the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds over our area.
A gradual warming trend and dry conditions are expected through the week as high pressure builds over the region. Today and Tonight: A meridionally elongated upper ridge will prevail from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the west coast states and into southwest Canada. This will support subtropical high pressure over the eastern Pacific whose influence will impinge on our area.
While a plume of moisture aloft riding the ridge will continue to support mid/high clouds across the upper peninsula, most areas south of the bridge will remain sunny this afternoon. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep layered high pressure centered right across the Great Lakes early this morning. Band of mid and upper level moisture running along northern extent of mid level ridge bringing some high clouds to mainly eastern upper Michigan. High pressure expected to remain in control of our weather through at least tonight, maintaining the dry conditions and bringing with it increasingly mild temperatures to the northern Great Lakes. Otherwise, as mentioned above, deep layer high pressure will continue to result in dry conditions across the Northwoods. Expect highs to top out in the low and mid 70s which is close to 15 degrees above average for early October.
Current model guidance and sounding observations support potential mixing in the lower levels. This mixing of the lower levels will support dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Afternoon temperatures are forecasted to peak in the low 80s. A few high clouds were noted early this morning across the southern half of the state on the southwestern periphery of a retrograding upper trough. Look for highs today to top out around 80 F for most with lows tonight dropping to near 50 F near and north of Highway 82, middle 50s F along I-20, and near 60 F for those along the Highway 84 corridor.
(Today and tonight) Morning temperatures and weather about the same as yesterday as high pressure extending from the Great Lakes down into the gulf this morning as the weather along the eastern seaboard locked in about the same position with few showers extending along a developing cold front from Wisconsin down into New Mexico. The area of high pressure that has been driving the quiet weather pattern from the lakes down into the gulf will continue today with light northeast winds on tap and highs in the mid 80s.
640 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A large high pressure area has settled over the region and will help keep skies clear to mostly clear with light winds into Wednesday.
Fair and warmer weather prevails today and tomorrow, as high pressure builds over the region.
623 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Morning temperatures and weather about the same as yesterday as high pressure extending from the Great Lakes down into the gulf this morning as the weather along the eastern seaboard locked in about the same position with few showers extending along a developing cold front from Wisconsin down into New Mexico. The area of high pressure that has been driving the quiet weather pattern from the lakes down into the gulf will continue today with light northeast winds on tap and highs in the mid 80s.
622 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Today through Wednesday) This AM, persistent broad E Conus surface ridging will continue through Wednesday. The exception will be some scattered cirrus across the SRN half of the state as some meager moisture traverses around the base of an upper low over VA.
316 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The upper low center was located over southwest ND/northwest SD with its trough axis into northeast CO. The model consensus has the upper low and associated trough moving east-southeast across the Dakotas through tonight and toward the Midwest Wednesday. Lingering moisture and weak instability on the backside of the departing upper low will keep small chances for showers today over the far northern NE Panhandle. A upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, with north-northwest flow aloft dominating the CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
an upper ridge will be moving overhead. though maybe a deg or two warmer.
745 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Low pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday night, as high pressure remains over the Southern Atlantic states. At the same time, a weak cold front over Northern Central Florida will move slowly southward today and through South Florida on Wednesday while slowly washing out. The east coast may be slightly cooler for highs on Wed with more cloud cover due to the front passing through the area.
708 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 An upper low will remain near the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds over our area.
Dew points should drop into the low 30s in many places, causing RH values to fall precipitously.
Elected to lower overnight lows for some of the lowest valleys in the Hill Country with the skies clearing. The high clouds will continue to reduce in areal coverage and thin out across South-Central Texas as we go through the day with mainly clear skies trending across the region by tonight. More thin high cirrus could then arrive Wednesday from out of the west with upper level troughing digging into the Southwestern CONUS and northern Mexico.
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will keep a lid on things locally. However, northeast winds funneling down the east side of the Appalachians may keep things a bit cooler over the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Farther west, highs will be in the lower 80s. Moderate northeast winds will prevail through Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
511 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A trough axis is now exiting the Cowboy State. Ridging will begin to build into Wyoming today and bring a dry and seasonable day for the most part. There are no concerns for Wednesday as it looks like an almost perfect autumn day with the ridge axis over the area.
After a couple of cool and breezy days, temperatures warm later this week as weak high pressure builds into the Carolinas.
The mid to high clouds currently across S TX are expected to become scattered this afternoon allowing for more sunshine and slightly warmer highs. Weak ridging in the wake of the short wave is expected across S TX this afternoon through tonight bringing drier mid and upper levels to the area, thus decreasing the clouds.
Dry air starts to filter in from the NW today, but main day of concern will be Wednesday afternoon with a broad swath of RH values in the low to mid 20s across N and NE GA. Another concern will be Min T values across NE GA Tuesday night, with some areas in the higher elevations reaching down into the low to mid 40s, around 5 degrees cooler than seasonal avg, which could potentially cause some agricultural concerns.
735 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure will build south across the area this period. A band of moisture, on leading edge of the ridge will move south of the area this morning, yielding mainly clear skies this afternoon through Tonight.
625 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Tranquil conditions are expected to continue as mid to upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across Southeast TX. The highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s and in the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. Lows will be a degree or two warmer on Wednesday night.
318 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Fair and warmer weather prevails today and tomorrow, as high pressure builds over the region.
756 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A dry reinforcing cold front will continue to move through the area today. High pressure will then be in place across the area through the rest of the week and the weekend, with generally NE winds remaining across the area and dry conditions.
731 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Aviation High pressure producing mostly clear skies and calm winds early this morning is resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Dry wx will continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening before the approaching cold front brings scattered showers late Wednesday night.
450 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Patchy fog across the region early this morning with lingering moisture as the upper low retreats to the east. Today through Wednesday afternoon, expect a ridge to move over the area bringing dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Wednesday night, a Canadian cold front pushes through the area.
624 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Now through Wednesday) Modest mid-level ridging will maintain dry and comfortable weather through much of the period. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s, except for the lower 70s near the coast.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep layered high pressure centered right across the Great Lakes early this morning. Band of mid and upper level moisture running along northern extent of mid level ridge bringing some high clouds to mainly eastern upper Michigan. High pressure expected to remain in control of our weather through at least tonight, maintaining the dry conditions and bringing with it increasingly mild temperatures to the northern Great Lakes. Otherwise, as mentioned above, deep layer high pressure will continue to result in dry conditions across the Northwoods. Expect highs to top out in the low and mid 70s which is close to 15 degrees above average for early October.
This was expected as high pressure over the Great Lakes Region is slowly shifting east and pushing out what was left of Ian off the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in the recent wind shift. Temperatures this morning are like previous mornings with current readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Area of high pressure currently in the Great Lakes Region will shift further east and southeast today through Wednesday.
(Now through Wednesday) Modest mid-level ridging will maintain dry and comfortable weather through much of the period. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s, except for the lower 70s near the coast.
The upper level trough over the eastern seaboard will keep winds from the north, oscillating slightly between northeast and northwest as the trough attempts to dig further south. Ridging induced subsidence will aid in keeping PoPs negligible throughout, while the aforementioned northerly flow, joined by similarly oriented surface winds, keep morning lows in the lower 50s north to upper 50s south while afternoon highs return to near seasonable values in the middle 80s, with several sites aiming for the upper 80s north and west.
350 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure remains over the region through at least Wednesday before weakening and departing to the east Wednesday night.
Above normal high temperatures will continue through Wednesday as upper level ridging bring dry conditions to the Northern Rockies. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected to persist through the day on Wednesday as upper level ridging dominates over the western 1/3rd of the CONUS/Canada; however, a longwave trough over extreme northern Canada/Arctic (this afternoon) will begin to dig southeast to over Manitoba/Western Ontario through Wednesday afternoon. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will begin to push from northeast to southwest across North Central Montana late Wednesday afternoon, switching winds to more of the north/northeast and leading to increasing cloud cover. Prior this cold front, clear skies and light winds across the region tonight will promote another ideal setup for fog, mainly from early Wednesday morning and persisting through the mid- to late morning hours.
(This evening through Wednesday) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley ridging swwd through the ArkLaTex to the wrn Gulf, maintaining a light, mainly nerly low-level flow across the forecast area.
Temperatures will warm through the week as high pressure builds over the area and limits the night through morning low cloud pattern. Cooler conditions will arrive over the weekend. Light offshore trends today combined with high pressure aloft made for a warmer day with most areas up 2-5 degrees from yesterday. Next couple days look to be very similar, though possibly a touch cooler near the coast as onshore flow increases slightly and models are favoring a return of more widespread low clouds and fog for coastal areas.
133 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A large high pressure area has settled over the region and will help keep skies clear to mostly clear with light winds into Wednesday.
An upper- level ridge of high pressure ensures the continuation of dry and calm conditions accompanied by well above normal high temperatures through the middle of the week.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Mid-level water vapor reveals a rather compact low INVOF Central AZ within a slow moving trof that extends from SW AZ-SW CO. Mstr within said trof is adequate for TSRA/SHRA per NAEFS 1 to 2 standard anomaly. Question is how far e will mstr/trof and assocd TSRA/SHRA move and/or develop. Into Wed PM increased clouds and thus cooler temps may be detrimental to developing SB instability and NAMBUFR sounding suggest high based convective potential with bases around 7. The mid-level trof axis may pull up stationary and will remain w, as such there is good consistency that isold-sct, possibly nmrs coverage of TSRA/SHRA will remain across the w. With the exception of the far ern and srn CWFA high temps will be a 1-5 degrees cooler than Tue, especially across the wrn areas.
All of this activity is with the trough of an upper level closed low which translates east into the Missouri River valley by early Wednesday.