Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
339 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Forecast concerns will shift from fire weather issues this afternoon to a threat for showers and a few thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon as a weakening cold front passes into and across the region. Western valleys and ridges should stay mixed, however, with temps remaining in the 50s to around 60.
Broad upper trough over western Canada is providing a SW flow over Montana this afternoon. Rainshowers associated with a mid-level trough will develop over central Montana later today and diminish as they move northeast into the CWA late this evening and overnight. Winds will increase behind the clouds/possible showers/mid-level trough Tuesday with speeds of 15-30 mph. Temperatures should be warmer as mixing and downslope flow will allow the mercury to reach the mid to upper 50s.
200 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will dominate through Tuesday.
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through mid week.
127 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Southerly flow, under high pressure aloft, will maintain warm and dry weather into Tuesday morning. A weak cold front will bring the risk for showers or a storm Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warm advection in southerly flow on the western edge of a departing upper ridge, will support seasonably warm and dry conditions today. Deep mixing will support wind gusts to 25-30mph through this evening, which should slow moistening of the low levels some. A weak cold front will slowly make its way through the Upper Midwest tonight, reaching Western Ohio by dawn Tuesday. Initially, deep moisture will be sparse, as well as large scale ascension, so a lot of the initial energy associated with the front will get used up breaking down the strong ridge.
1140 AM MDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Current KUDX radar loop across east central Wyoming and the far northern NE panhandle shows light to moderate snow from east of Lusk to the Pine Ridge between Alliance and Chadron Nebraska early this morning. Based on webcam images, it looks like 1 to 2 inches of snow is on the ground from Lusk to around Chadron with potentially up to 4 inches along the Pine ridge. Otherwise, winds will continue to decrease today as the low to midlevel pressure gradient decreases across the area. Dry conditions are expected through late Tuesday evening as temperatures increase into the upper 50's (west) to mid 60's (east), warmest across the lower elevations of western Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming.
204 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Warm and breezy conditions will continue today with high pressure situated east of the region. A weak cold front will approach the area tonight and move through on Tuesday bringing some shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Clouds, precipitation, and the cold front will keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday than today with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Upper low that has been slowly sliding eastward across NE today has finally pushed into SE SD/NE NE and will continue to lift through northern IA this evening moving into WI late tonight. Therefore have temps into the 60s across the state Tuesday with mainly sunny skies and high pressure dominating the region.
256 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 A high pressure system will slowly give way to an approaching frontal system Tuesday. A weak cold front moves through Tuesday night. High pressure for mid week. Models agree on slowing the cold front from the west somewhat on Tuesday, even though the GFS is still the fastest.
Temps this afternoon struggled mightily to crack into the lower 40s with dew points in the single digits across northern MN and teens and 20s elsewhere question becomes how long to go the the forecast. Ideal radiative cooling set up with clear skies and light winds in the dry airmass so will go a few degrees cooler than my coldest guidance with mid teens north to low 20s south. An upper low approaching the PACWN coast midweek moves along the WA/BC shore as an upper ridge amplifies over the nrn Rockies and moves into ern ND by mid-week, bringing dry wx Wed night and Thu with overnight lows in the 40s. SW flow aloft then sets up for the end of the week as the upper low moves over Alb Fri night.
307 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) A cold front is moving south through the forecast area. The cold front will slow down as it moves southeast through the forecast area and there is a chance for heavy rain in San Saba, Mason and Kimble counties this evening and overnight. Expect cooler temperatures on Tuesday with lows near 50 degrees in the Big Country to near 60 from Ozona to Junction. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s with some cloudiness lingering.
Cold front has moved through most of the terminals per 12Z surface obs. Expecting light precip to develop across the High Plains and spread eastward into NE OK by mid afternoon and into NW AR by this evening.
Temperatures will also rapidly drop behind the front, with temperatures below freezing by 6- 7 pm for northern areas.
/issued 405 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016/ The arctic cold front is beginning to accelerate southward early this morning, with temps now in the teens across the panhandle. We did remove most mentions of freezing drizzle/rain is it appears less likely now, although it cannot be completely ruled out. It should then spread east and southward late this afternoon through this evening as the mid to upper trough traverses the panhandles, and the RRQ of an upper jet increases div aloft across north central and central OK. Just as warmer conditions arrive Wed, another cold front will accompany a mid to upper low moving into the Midwest Wed night.
405 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 The arctic cold front is beginning to accelerate southward early this morning, with temps now in the teens across the panhandle. We did remove most mentions of freezing drizzle/rain is it appears less likely now, although it cannot be completely ruled out. It should then spread east and southward late this afternoon through this evening as the mid to upper trough traverses the panhandles, and the RRQ of an upper jet increases div aloft across north central and central OK. Just as warmer conditions arrive Wed, another cold front will accompany a mid to upper low moving into the Midwest Wed night.
As of 3:45 am, temperatures have warmed overnight to near 60 degrees across far southern Missouri and temperatures were near freezing from the Fort Scott area and west central Missouri. Pockets of drizzle will eventually turn into freezing drizzle as temperatures fall during the day from northwest to southeast. Short term guidance continue to support very light precip developing behind the front today across the area turning into a light wintry mix of freezing drizzle. Highs will only reach the middle teens on Sunday and with clear skies and the center of high pressure right over the Ozarks on Sunday night. Looking at all locations in the lower single digits to near zero once again.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis still indicating strong southwest west flow aloft across the region with a broad upper trough digging across the southern Great Basin and strong jet core lifting out across the Desert SW and southern Rockies at this time. The strong southwest flow aloft across the region moderates and becomes more west to northwest as the broad upper trough continues to lift out across the area through the early afternoon and out across the high plains into the evening. Best accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected over the higher terrain of the southeast mountains, with 1 to 3 inches across the lower elevations. with the coldest readings in the lower river valleys. Temperatures over and near the higher terrain may actually slowly warm after midnight and through Sunday morning, with warming aloft and downslope warming.
530 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A wintry mix of mainly light freezing rain, sleet, and snow will continue to create difficult travel conditions this morning as low pressure tracks northeast into the Ohio Valley. This afternoon will feature areas of drizzle and light rain as temperatures reach above freezing from Marion to Lima.
630 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Gusty southwest winds will continue today at each terminal, along with low VFR to MVFR cigs and vis from passing areas of -RA ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.
Much cooler temperatures this weekend with much of the area seeing temperatures at or below freezing on Sunday morning. Based on the latest surface observations, IR satellite and KEMX radar, the surface cold front is now pushing through the Tucson Metro.
347 AM MST Sat Dec 17 2016 A Pacific cold front stretching across SW CO and SE UT will continue moving east and south and be east of the area this afternoon. A bit of a lull in the precipitation just before sunrise this morning will give way to a brief precipitation surge as the 500 mb trough and deformation zone moves over the area between about 7 am and 10 am. Have made no changes to the winter weather products which will all continue until 5 AM for the lower elevation of the CO northwest plateau and until 11 am this morning in the mountains.
Brisk SE flow around periphery of Wrn Atlc ridge will increase avbl moisture into Sunday. Highs in the lower/mid 80s remain on track and the present forecast will be updated to remove fog.
602 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Today through Sunday: Forecast Concerns: The intrusion of an arctic airmass, and the potential for winter weather impacts today through tonight as an upper trough traverses across the Kansas region. Areas of light freezing drizzle are possible this morning.
Surface analysis this morning places a warm front across Southern Missouri and Southern Illinois while a trailing cold front is located across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. A tight pressure gradient across the Lower Mississippi Valley and 925 mb low level jet around 50 kts is producing breezy conditions across the forecast area. The aforementioned cold front will begin to move across Arkansas mainly this afternoon into tonight. An arctic airmass building in behind the front will result in precipitation gradually transitioning to freezing rain or freezing drizzle as the bulk of precipitation departs the Mid- South.
A powerful cold front will move across the state this afternoon and early evening with an abrupt wind shift to the northwest. The forecast still reflects a change of precipitation types as sub-freezing air makes it into any given location. However, precipitation will be coming to an end fairly quickly behind the front so any frozen or freezing precip will be short lived outside of northwest Arkansas.
Highs will be cool, but will gradually warm over the next few days as high pressure aloft builds over the state.
Expecting light precip to develop across the High Plains and spread eastward into NE OK by mid afternoon and into NW AR by this evening.
Strong cold front will move across the aviation region during the overnight tonight. Currently mostly cloudy skies across the area with warm December temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s. Finally the much advertised cold front is currently moving into southern Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. The strong cold front will being to move into the northwest portions of the forecast area just prior to midnight.
In the mountains, windy above timberline with just just some low level moisture trapped in the high mountain valleys so may keep more cloud cover in zones 30 and 32.
A strong cold front will push across the area this evening. Isolated to scattered showers are expected as the cold front pushes across the area mainly over the eastern counties and away from terminal sites.
Temperatures are running in the lower 70s south to 60s in the northern forecast areaand dewpoints are in the 60s. Satellite imagery does not indicate sea fog over the gulf as might be expected with the low level southerly wind flow. High pressure over the area to produce southerly winds with warm and humid conditions that will lead to areas of dense sea fog later this weekend.
/issued 401 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016/ Today-Sunday: Strong ridge builds over the Western Atlantic just to the east of Florida through the weekend, with its axis stretching back across the peninsula.
910 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A weak wave of low pressure will track along the coast this morning as cold air damming continues over inland NC. A warm front will approach from the south tonight and Sunday morning, as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
Cold blustery conditions in the Kern county mountains this morning with gusty winds and freezing temperatures. due to a building ridge in the Pacific NW. The lower level winds will weaken sunday resulting in optimal conditions for radiational cooling with dry air, clear skies light winds.
expect a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky today with much warmer temperatures under a deep layer SSW flow. do not expect enough growth for showers this afternoon as mid level ridge axis actually strengthens across the central Florida peninsula.
700 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Aviation Snow will continue today and may mix with freezing drizzle across southern Lower Michigan. Freezing drizzle is possible along the I-94 corridor for a few hours from late morning to early afternoon as the DGZ there is unsaturated, but any icing should be light. Cold air advection is under way by late afternoon and model soundings show column going below freezing in the JXN area by 7 pm with the DGZ saturated.
524 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A wintry mix of mainly light freezing rain, sleet, and snow will continue to create difficult travel conditions this morning as low pressure tracks northeast into the Ohio Valley. This afternoon will feature areas of drizzle and light rain as temperatures reach above freezing from Marion to Lima.
Arctic high pressure over eastern Montana with clear skies and very cold temperatures this morning. Little wind under the high but with temperatures in the 20s below zero, wind chills are flirting with minus 40 in many locations. High pressure moves off to the east today with warmer air slowly spilling east of the divide.
Those across the Northern Rockies will wake up to frigid temperatures this morning, with some locations such as Butte and Polebridge in the -30s F.
These temps may slowly rise, despite little if any sunshine making it thru the low cloud canopy. Cold front may result in mid aftn lowering of daytime highs across Red River Valley area.
519 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Early-morning water vapor imagery revealed a positively tilted mid-level trough from the northern High Plains to lower Colorado Valley with a downstream, lower-amplitude perturbation rapidly moving away from the mid Missouri Valley. On Sunday, mid-level heights will rebound with the passage of the trough to our east.
538 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Mainly light freezing drizzle rain mixed at times with light snow will continue to create slick travel conditions on untreated roads. An arctic front will bring a return to more snow sleet and freezing rain changing to all snow late this afternoon into the evening hours.
540 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 A strong cold front will be the focus of afternoon and evening thunderstorms across area terminals.
306 AM PST Sat Dec 17 2016 Freezing temperatures in the Valley this weekend with dry conditions. Dry weather will continue the next few days as high pressure aloft builds over the eastern Pacific.
Despite weak upper level ridging trying to build across our area, will continue to carry low rain chances across Southeast Texas today and Monday.
High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week.
240 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 08z surface analysis had low pressure over northwest MN with frontal boundary into southeast WY. Upper low spinning above low over northern MN. Concern for next two days is upper trough and low over southwest Canada.
325 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A warm front will approach from the south today and then move north across the region late tonight through Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night.
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Morning upper pattern featured a ridge axis from Nevada southeast to the Four Corners before flattening over the Texas South Plains. This depression of the ridge locally was in large part to nocturnal storms that have since laid an outflow boundary from the Permian Basin into the Big Country. Lack of much capping ahead of this outflow points to scattered-to-numerous storms, but kept POPs this afternoon in the high chance realm as this potential MCS has yet to even develop and could thwart our thinking altogether should it fail to emerge.
Upper level trough to move across the region tonight into Sunday. Surface gradients will be increasing as the trough moves through. Upper ridge starts to build in Monday and will strengthen through mid week with warmer temps.
Expect sct showers/a few TS this mrng over mainly the wrn CWA to move to the E and become more nmrs with the shrtwv forcing/accompanying sfc lo pres trof/axis of deeper h85-5 mstr/daytime heating. GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb trough and closed low over the northern plains 12z Wed. This trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and remains over the area through Sat. Sat could have some lake breeze convection with light winds and a warm front near the area. the lower ceilings and fog will persist over all three TAF sites into the early daylight hours.
411 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build in through mid week.
A weak trough will move through the region today, shifting winds around to the northwest and allowing some drier air to filter into the Tennessee valley.
155 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 The Ohio Valley region remains in between low pressure in the upper Mississippi Valley and high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast.
In the middle and upper levels, (700-200 MB), the latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 2 am, like 24 hours prior, details the axis of a negatively tilted warm core middle and upper level ridge situated from New York State south southeastwards to around 30 North and 69 West, and west of that feature is an upper trough axis that extends from the Mid- Mississippi Valley southeast to down the Florida Peninsula to the Central Bahamas. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 MB), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie, at 200 am EDT, was located about 155 south of Myrtle Beach and moving north near 6 mph.
150 miles off the South Carolina coast - and a weakening upper level wave over the lower MS Valley. Not expecting much westward progression of rain/storms due to upr lvl ridge building across MS and AL.
WV imagery shows the upper trough just making landfall in SoCal, w/an upper jet rounding the base of this feature and nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Upper trough is forecast to creep along the U.
Cyclone Bonnie drifting north along the SC coast will bring west to NW flow locally over the next 24h. Weak mid- upper troughing over the area, combined with adequate moisture and afternoon instability will be enough to ignite mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms (20pct coast/30pct interior), though most locations will remain dry. Swells ascd with psg of cyclone Bonnie will slowly diminish through the period.
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Upper low nearly overhead is in the process of opening up and lifting to the northeast into Canada while slowly weakening early this morning, but there is still sufficient forced ascent to produce scattered to widespread showers this morning. Later tonight, clearing skies and light winds as low level ridging builds in to the region should lead to the re-development of fog in many areas, and it could be more widespread than is currently indicated in the forecast. Memorial Day appears to be the best day of the Holiday weekend underneath weak surface ridging, with light west/northwest winds and warming temps. Our next storm system is an upper low that will have been moving across the northern Rockies, and Monday evening will be over eastern Montana.
322 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A pair of troughs organizing over the western NOAM in British Columbia and just off the central California coast.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Upper level low entering the CA coast weakens early in the short term aiding a zonal flow across S Texas. The surface pressure gradient strengthens this afternoon as weak trough digs South across the Desert Southwest.
Timing of the pre-frontal trough actually suggests most convective initiation will occur over the area during the mid to late afternoon with this activity then being swept east out of lower Michigan by 00z or so. This seems most likely over the Thumb region where lake breeze convergence will most likely enhance the updrafts that form along passing trough axis. Several quiet days will follow as high pressure builds across the central Great Lakes early in the upcoming week in the wake of this cold front. While temperatures will still climb into the 80s in most locations during this time frame, humidity levels will be lower as the dew point temperatures in the lower/mid 60s of late will be replaced by readings in the mid/upper 50s. This will also allow for cooler overnight temperatures in the 50s to around 60.
For tonight and early Monday, a warm front returning out west along with mid level instability will result in scattered elevated thunderstorms developing in southern SD and lifting northeast through the night into early Monday affecting our CWA.
144 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 An area of low pressure is centered near the coast of South Carolina. Forecast models are in general agreement, tropical low pressure near the south carolina coast resulting in increasing cloudiness across the carolinas overnight and a northwest drift of showers from the coast. Not confident of much precip making it into WVA or far western Va so will maintain a tight gradient of POPs west of the Blue Ridge. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures should be warmer with 80s for highs.
The most likely scenario as it appears now is that weak forcing at best will be present as the closed low remains well west of our area, and so convection should be strongly diurnally driven. We have placed the highest probabilities in the western half of the Panhandles where low level confluence may be enhanced near depending lee trough in eastern New Mexico.
435 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 08z surface analysis had low pressure over northwest MN with frontal boundary into southeast WY. Upper low spinning above low over northern MN. Concern for next two days is upper trough and low over southwest Canada.
Temperatures will be warmer this afternoon ahead of a cold front, with valley highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Moisture ahead of the front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms in Twin Falls County and far southeastern Owyhee County this afternoon, and along the cold front across the far north. It will be a dry cold front for most SE Oregon and SW Idaho as it moves southeastward through the area this evening. Temperatures will average 3-6 degrees cooler along with breezy northwest winds in the Treasure Valley and Western Magic Valley. Strong upper-level ridge over the West Coast on Monday night moves slowly inland through the week.
From the late afternoon through evening hours, a weak front will make its way through the lower Ohio Valley. The front is not expected to bring much cooler air with it, but Monday will see a slight drop in dewpoints. As high pressure builds in, these should bring dry weather and clearing skies. Temperatures will remain similar the next couple days with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
Low pressure over the upper midwest will move east across the northern great lakes Sunday and trailing cold front will move across our region late Sunday and Sunday evening.