Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
921 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021 A ridge axis emanating from high pressure over the Atlantic is currently sitting atop the Florida Keys and coastal waters. The dewpoint temps remain unseasonably high, in the low to mid 70s across the islands.
A brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out this evening before the precip ends/lifts north since the DGZ becomes unsaturated once mid level moisture departs.
1011 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021 High pressure tonight and Thursday.
A minor warm front will lift north through the area Thursday morning, serving to shift surface winds to southerly. Thursday will be a warmer day than today, with temperatures peaking in the mid 50s on the northern edge of our CWA and the mid 60s in western CWA. Thursday night a lee cyclone forming off the Rockies will deepen, and a warm front will develop. Surface temperatures look cooler than they have in previous forecasts, but will still need to be closely monitored. A cold front associated with the aforementioned cyclone will provide forcing for showers along it as the night carries on. As the cold front passes, so will the precipitation.
High pressure will build to the north Today, while the cold front moves back north across area as a warm front. A large gradient of temperatures expected across area Today due to northeast flow across northeastern counties and warm advection south of warm front. Highs south of I10 in the lower to mid 70s, and in the 65 to 70 degree range north of I10. The warm front will pass just to the north Tonight, as high pressure builds more toward the northeast. Potential for fog inland Tonight, as warmer and more moist air advects back north into area.
1255 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 The warming trend after todays light snow and cold will be interrupted by a weekend cold front. Wind should also back to the S-SW overnight as the high builds. The cold surge behind the trough will maintain below average temperature through tonight with overnight lows about 5 degrees below avg forecast. Temperature will warm to near the calculated normals as warm advection ensues in advance of a wrn CONUS trough. Some very light precipitation is expected with a warm front Thursday night and Friday with limitations from lack of moisture depth and lift. A period of mixed precipitation is still possible northeast of Pittsburgh initially as evaporational cooling could keep the boundary layer around freezing.
854 PM PST Wed Dec 8 2021 A low pressure system moving in from the northwest will bring showers late tonight through Thursday.
Some models such as HRRR, NAMNest, and ECMWF are indicating some light QPF/stratus ahead of this trough. Models consistent with highs on Thursday near 50 to the upper 50s, although there is a bit of a spread between the cooler MET guidance and warmer MAV guidance. Although we should start the day of with relatively few clouds behind the aforementioned trough, the increase of high and mid level clouds in advance of the approaching wave may keep us from getting as warm. The main impact would be visibility by Friday afternoon/evening as wind speeds still look like northwest at 25-35 mph on the northwest/backside of the low.
Meanwhile, upper level troughing begins to dig over the western CONUS on Thursday and into the central CONUS by Friday afternoon. As this upper level trough, progresses east, it will become rather potent (especially towards the end of the near term). At the surface, a low pressure develops over the Plains tonight in response to the deepening upper level trough. This system also develops a warm front, which will extend southeast from the Plains into southeastern Louisiana by late tonight. During the day Thursday, the warm front will lift north through the forecast area, causing winds to shift from easterly to southerly. The increased moisture, especially in the lower levels, will also cause clouds to increase with mostly overcast skies expected.
Looks like a partly to mostly sunny day with continued airmass modification and a warmer day still. Blended guidance (NBM) forecast was on the low end of the guidance envelope, thus some small upward adjustment was made toward MOS.
High pressure at the surface will continue to bring tranquil weather conditions overnight with clear skies and low temperatures in the mid 20's to mid 30's. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 49 69 62 68 / 0 60 60 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 45 66 59 68 / 0 40 60 50 90 Oak Ridge, TN 55 45 65 58 66 / 0 40 60 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 37 62 53 66 / 0 20 60 50 90.
a warm front will lift north over the state on Thu morning. a warm front will lift north over the state on Thu morning. In addition, a warm front will be riding up over the area late night into Thursday, which will result in a notable amount of warming tomorrow, which will continue into the extended term.
Severe threat Friday afternoon/evening with strong cold front.
331 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 A weak cold front is currently draped south of I-4. Except for the few showers we saw this evening the cold front will not change the forecast.
Temperatures tomorrow will decrease between 10 and 15 degrees to those observed today as the trough axis slips through the forecast area. Most activity is expected to remain over the higher elevations with 1 to 3 inches of snowfall possible. Scattered snow showers over the higher terrain, ending over Baker County Oregon and the central Idaho mountains by 06z, but continuing near the Nevada border through Thursday morning. All the models agree in showing a brief upper ridge moving into the Pacific Northwest late Friday afternoon.
Behind this wave, a surface cold front will slide east through the area which should help mix temperatures out into the upper 40s to mid 50s early Thursday afternoon before cold-air advection moves in. A dynamic trough will round the Four Corners region early Friday, deepen, and push east through Rockies throughout the day. Associated surface lee-cyclone is forecast to push east across Kansas on Friday with a strong warm front extending northeast across northeast Kansas and very close to our forecast area. Overall confidence regarding the location of the heavier band and amounts remain high, however the southern fringe towards I-80 remains somewhat of a wildcard as temperatures near I-80 remain above freezing for a longer time period allowing moisture to remain liquid.
1024 PM MST Wed Dec 8 2021 Currently seeing strong wind across portions of the Wind Corridor as a trough approaches and the surface pressure gradient remains tightened. A cold front will move south into the area tonight, with light snow likely across northern Wyoming through Thursday morning. Cooler air enters the region behind this system, but the air mass is not overly cold.
The weekend will be fair with gradually warmer afternoons and continued breezes. Areas of low clouds remain over much of the high terrain through the overnight, with clearing skies elsewhere. Locally breezy southwest winds also remain over the high terrain this evening and will continue through the overnight. Hi-res guidance indicates that the bulk of the precipitation from Flagstaff north and west may have pushed through around the midnight hour as temperatures begin to fall to freezing. Overall, the impact to travel will be the same with the worst time for travel across the high country being late Thursday night through early Friday morning.
112 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 Rain will be moving east of the region as an area of low pressure moves offshore. High pressure and drier air will be over the region tonight through Thursday with rain chances returning for Thursday night into the weekend.
A steady northwest wind will still make it feel a little on the cooler side.
219 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021 Southwesterly surface winds will continue through 12z this morning ahead of a weak cold front. As the weak cold front sweeps through the area, winds will begin to turn westerly to northwesterly between 12z-18z. Regardless, the highest chances for accumulating snow (at most a few tenths) will be in north central Minnesota.
244 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 A weak upper trough will swing off to the east this evening. A warm front will produce some light showers on Friday afternoon in the west.
(Today and tonight) The warm-up will continue today as southerly winds bring warmer air into the region.
Expect highs to settle into the lower 80s, which will be around 20 degrees higher than normal.
A trough over the region this morning will move out with flow aloft shifting to the southwest. Dry conditions are expected through the day with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low 50s to near 60 degrees. A lee cyclone is expected to develop over eastern Colorado this evening and into the overnight hours with winds shifting to the southeast. After midnight, the low is expected move across the Tri-State area. A few areas may experience a brief period of freezing drizzle, but confidence is very low in this scenario. Friday night, the low ejects out of the Central High Plains and off toward the Great Lakes. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern for this part of the forecast. The ridge as not as stout as was shown last night.
529 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021 (Today and tonight) The warm-up will continue today as southerly winds bring warmer air into the region.
The lowest afternoon humidity values will drop to 15-20 percent over much of the area this afternoon. Because of the high wind speeds just above the surface occasionally mixing down, overnight temperatures should be mild once again going into Friday morning. The period will start, on Friday, with an upper- level trough traversing the Rockies, helping to deepen a surface cyclone over southeastern Colorado. As this surface cyclone deepens, it will tighten the surface gradient over the FA, resulting in breezy downslope winds. A cold front will move through late Friday, bringing breezy conditions and lows in the 20s and low-30s for the forecast area.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Longwave troughing is occurring across the West Coast today, with the base of the trough located just off the coast of northern California this morning. Strong winds will also accompany this system, with the highest winds occurring across the mountains and desert slopes, peaking late this morning into early this afternoon. Longwave troughing will be replaced by weak ridging Friday through this weekend, allowing for temperatures to rise a few degrees each day before the next storm system takes hold of the region.
Note, the NAM and in general, the model consensus, show an h700mb warm front along the SD border Friday morning and this is the reason the models are focusing the best snow chances along and north of the border. There is a chance it may need to be extended farther south into Custer county for freezing drizzle which the NAM shows developing Friday morning.
A trough of low pressure will arrive on Friday. This will bring snow showers to the high country.
/issued 331 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021/ A weak cold front is currently draped south of I-4. Except for the few showers we saw this evening the cold front will not change the forecast.
406 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 High pressure will hold over the area through this evening.
308 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021 At the surface, a cold front continues to move from west to east across the state. Winds will be out of the northwest, with the highest gusts up to 35 mph. Diurnal trends and a sunny sky will be fighting the cold air advection behind the front, so highs will end up quite a bit cooler than yesterday for many (especially across the west). Friday will see similar temperatures as today, though a tiny bit cooler for some (but with less wind).
945 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 A weakening frontal boundary over central florida will begin to lift north as a warm front today. Ridging at the surface and aloft will yield fair and stable weather conditions throughout Southern Florida and the Keys. A strengthening ridge over the eastern third of the United States will cause fresh northeast to east breezes across the local waters through Friday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid-level high pressure persists across the Gulf of Mexico as a 500mb trough works into the Plains from the west, turning the flow aloft more southwesterly through Friday. Low pressure deepening into the Plains this afternoon into Friday strengthens the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast, increasing southerly winds through the rest of the week. As for temperatures, like yesterday, the warmer areas will be those that break out into the sunshine and catch stronger southerly flow.
Southwesterly surface winds will continue through 12z this morning ahead of a weak cold front. As the weak cold front sweeps through the area, winds will begin to turn westerly to northwesterly between 12z-18z. Regardless, the highest chances for accumulating snow (at most a few tenths) will be in north central Minnesota.
Given the forecast track of the low, much of the precipitation will be across Nebraska, extending down into far northern Kansas in the 700mb deformation zone. For now, POPs will remain silent across all of the forecast area (no mention of precipitation at less than 15 percent), however any last minute digging of the low south before ejection across the Central Plains. The latest forecast calls for high temperature ranging from the upper 30s across Trego County to the lower 70s in Barber County. A huge gradient in temperature is expected in the afternoon, right during the time of typical diurnal peak heating, which is why the high temperature forecast is so challenging.
614 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021 The cold front has approached the central part of the state. At the surface, a cold front continues to move from west to east across the state. Winds will be out of the northwest, with the highest gusts up to 35 mph. Diurnal trends and a sunny sky will be fighting the cold air advection behind the front, so highs will end up quite a bit cooler than yesterday for many (especially across the west). Friday will see similar temperatures as today, though a tiny bit cooler for some (but with less wind).
400 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021 As of 9:48z Thursday, water vapor imagery shows the presence of an upper level trough axis passing through northeast Kansas. The high cloud cover that was once covering the forecast area has moved east in line with the upper-level trough. With mostly clear skies and lighter winds, temperatures Thursday should be able to reach the low to mid 60s area-wide. Short Term: The next upper-level trough will begin to eject out of the west overnight Thursday into Friday. An associated lee surface cyclone will begin to strengthen during this timeframe as the trough axis approaches. Temperatures Friday still should be able to make it into the upper 60s in east central Kansas while only making it into the upper 40s in north-central Kansas due to the passing of the aforementioned cold front.
534 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021 Southwesterly surface winds will continue through 12z this morning ahead of a weak cold front. As the weak cold front sweeps through the area, winds will begin to turn westerly to northwesterly between 12z-18z. Regardless, the highest chances for accumulating snow (at most a few tenths) will be in north central Minnesota.
Record or near record highs in the lower 70s are anticipated ahead of the front while those behind the front will see falling temperatures in the afternoon. We continue to see strong support for an anomalous mid/upper ridge building into the central CONUS bringing much above normal temperatures and dry weather to the region through the extended periods. A vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to lift across the Rockies toward the middle of the week which may drive a frontal boundary into the region toward the end of the period.
437 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 A sticky early December morning for the Florida Keys island communities, with current observed dewpoints in the lower 70s. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern third of the United States will consolidate, strengthen, and slowly pivot northeastward over the next several days.
The cold front has approached the central part of the state. At the surface, a cold front continues to move from west to east across the state. Winds will be out of the northwest, with the highest gusts up to 35 mph. Diurnal trends and a sunny sky will be fighting the cold air advection behind the front, so highs will end up quite a bit cooler than yesterday for many (especially across the west). Friday will see similar temperatures as today, though a tiny bit cooler for some (but with less wind).
As of 9:48z Thursday, water vapor imagery shows the presence of an upper level trough axis passing through northeast Kansas. The high cloud cover that was once covering the forecast area has moved east in line with the upper-level trough. With mostly clear skies and lighter winds, temperatures Thursday should be able to reach the low to mid 60s area-wide. Short Term: The next upper-level trough will begin to eject out of the west overnight Thursday into Friday. An associated lee surface cyclone will begin to strengthen during this timeframe as the trough axis approaches. Temperatures Friday still should be able to make it into the upper 60s in east central Kansas while only making it into the upper 40s in north-central Kansas due to the passing of the aforementioned cold front.
Otherwise, mins in the L-M60s for most areas, a little cooler (U50s) in the normally cooler far north and M-U60s along the SE coast.
Much colder air arrives tonight and Friday with sub freezing high temperatures and single digit lows Friday night. Expanding and intensifying precipitation is expected this morning across much of central Nevada and to a lesser extent northern Nevada as a trough makes its way through the region. Snow accumulations will vary with snow levels generally falling throughout the day as a cold front moves through the area. Mountains will see considerably more snow with 9-12" on some of the highest peaks in central Nevada. An accompanying cold front will bring colder temperatures with highs today topping out only in the mid to upper 30s.
The areas with the higher probability of this occurring, will be Lookout and Lolo Passes, along with the higher elevations in north-central Idaho. Due to the possibility of the high snow rates, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas.
700 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 High pressure and drier air will be over the region today with rain chances returning for tonight into the weekend.
/issued 305 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid-level high pressure persists across the Gulf of Mexico as a 500mb trough works into the Plains from the west, turning the flow aloft more southwesterly through Friday. Low pressure deepening into the Plains this afternoon into Friday strengthens the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast, increasing southerly winds through the rest of the week. As for temperatures, like yesterday, the warmer areas will be those that break out into the sunshine and catch stronger southerly flow.
1118 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 High pressure and drier air will be over the region today with rain chances returning for tonight into the weekend.
Eventually this evening enough moisture and lift associated with an increasing 850mb jet already noted at KPAH VAD wind profile this afternoon and surface warm front will advect north and east leading to some rain shower activity later this evening and tonight. Will keep some ridge/valley temperature splits in there before cloud cover arrives, with lows in the mid to upper 40s on the ridges and low to mid 40s in the valleys. Overall seeing high in the low to mid 60s will be the story by later on Thursday. The overall trend in the guidance is for a slower progression of the cold front east which could affect the overall convective trends.
Have maintain the low afternoon PoPs across our eastern sections, although the more significant convective development is expected to be east of the forecast area.
winds will turn more southwest this evening and briefly decouple, but will become gusty tonight as the low-level jet occasionally mixes down to the surface. The lowest afternoon humidity values will drop to 15-20 percent over much of the area this afternoon. Because of the high wind speeds just above the surface occasionally mixing down, overnight temperatures should be mild once again going into Friday morning. The period will start, on Friday, with an upper- level trough traversing the Rockies, helping to deepen a surface cyclone over southeastern Colorado. As this surface cyclone deepens, it will tighten the surface gradient over the FA, resulting in breezy downslope winds. A cold front will move through late Friday, bringing breezy conditions and lows in the 20s and low-30s for the forecast area.
A larger scale upper trof meanwhile advances across the western states then amplifies while moving into the Plains on Friday. Based on area observations, radar loops and satellite data, a warm front extends from southeast Louisiana into the marine area. Complicating the analysis of this feature is that a secondary warm front appears to extend from the western Florida panhandle into southeast Mississippi. An interesting result of this will be temperatures gradually trending a bit warmer tonight, especially well inland, rather than cooling off as one would expect with nightfall. The mechanism for fog development will be moist air flowing over relatively cooler bay and near shore waters (sea fog).
211 PM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 Mid level ridging in the central Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward toward Florida through the end of the week and into the weekend. The surface reflection is broad high pressure that extends from the mid- Atlantic states southwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Skies will likely remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day which should put high temps in the mid to upper 60s in SE AL and SW GA and in the upper 60s to the low 70s for N FL.
Record or near record highs in the lower 70s are anticipated ahead of the front while those behind the front will see falling temperatures in the afternoon. We continue to see strong support for an anomalous mid/upper ridge building into the central CONUS bringing much above normal temperatures and dry weather to the region through the extended periods. A vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to lift across the Rockies toward the middle of the week which may drive a frontal boundary into the region toward the end of the period. Strong westerly upper flow is in place across the Plains with Lee troughing continuing to deepen.
The low is then expected to deepen as it pushes east towards southern Kansas. A cold front will push into the region as the upper trough moves across the FA late tomorrow evening.
1020 AM EST Thu Dec 9 2021 High pressure will hold over the area through this evening.
A trough over the region this morning will move out with flow aloft shifting to the southwest. Dry conditions are expected through the day with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low 50s to near 60 degrees. A lee cyclone is expected to develop over eastern Colorado this evening and into the overnight hours with winds shifting to the southeast. After midnight, the low is expected move across the Tri-State area. A few areas may experience a brief period of freezing drizzle, but confidence is very low in this scenario. Friday night, the low ejects out of the Central High Plains and off toward the Great Lakes. Will generally be under a southwest flow aloft this period with a ridge anchored over the southeast CONUS and a series of troughs digging into the western CONUS.
Look for generally pleasant weather this afternoon, with warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies. Southwesterly surface winds will continue through 12z this morning ahead of a weak cold front. As the weak cold front sweeps through the area, winds will begin to turn westerly to northwesterly between 12z-18z. Regardless, the highest chances for accumulating snow (at most a few tenths) will be in north central Minnesota.