Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Along the back side of the low, a secondary band of precipitation has developed across central Kansas. However as the low shifts a bit east over the next few hours, the vertical profile could cool just enough to allow for some wet snow to fall across far north-central Kansas. Farther east, winds will be a bit weaker, but will still gust up to 40 mph at times behind the cold front. Showers will also linger behind the cold front into the evening, though will likely become more scattered with eastern extent. Ahead of the cold front across far east-central Kansas, clearing skies could allow temperatures to warm to near 60.
(Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a surface cold front was moving southeast across the area. Temperatures will also be much cooler behind the front, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 50s across the Big Country, to the mid 60s along the I-10 corridor.
/NEW/ Update: A cold front has advanced through two-thirds of the region and should clear our eastern counties later this morning. Meanwhile, this system's strong trailing cold front is entering western North Texas now, and will push through the rest of the forecast area through the morning hours. Much cooler and drier air will filter in behind this front, with a fair amount of wrap-around post-frontal stratus lingering across the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area. Highs will only be in the 50s and lower 60s while overnight lows dip into the lower 40s. Thanks to cooler temperatures, humidity values are largely expected to remain above 35% this afternoon, and when combined with decent rainfall in most areas, this may help substantially with fire weather concerns.
Models continue to show an upper level disturbance/vort max quickly digging south out of Canada this afternoon behind the low pressure system to the east. The upper level low pressure to the east of the region will move very little through Wednesday afternoon, likely located in eastern Kansas or Missouri.
511 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 07z surface analysis had low over central OK with trough north into central MB. Water vapour loop showed upper low over central SK/MB border and another over central KS, both embedded in large scale upper trough. Wednesday, upper trough remains east of the CWA as dry gusty northwest winds continue per gradient/deep boundary layer mixing.
643 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania today while slow moving low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley tonight.
A ridge of high pressure over the western usa will influence the regions weather more so today with drier conditions. Meanwhile a weather disturbance passing over the top of the ridge and into the area continues to bring clouds and possibly a few showers to and near the Blue Mountains this morning that should slowly dissipate later today. Otherwise the remainder of the area is expected to remain dry with warmer temps. The dry conditions are forecast to continue tonight with even warmer temps tomorrow. The ridge shifts east somewhat and clouds are expected to be on the increase while a few showers are forecast along our WA/OR cascades.
High pressure will then strengthen across the region through the remainder of the week, bringing dry conditions along with a significant warming trend.
Breezy conditions will be possible Wednesday as a deepening trough pushes south and east into Texas with northerly to northeasterly flow aloft over the High Plains.
The remaining convection will move east over the next two hours, and high pressure will quickly build into the area. High pressure will build into the area today, bringing breezy, cooler, and drier conditions. The upper low/longwave trough will be slow to progress east, so we expect some mid and upper level clouds to pass across the region today and Wednesday, but no additional rainfall is expected.
Cooler over the weekend with a pattern change and possible precipitation. Strong eastern Pacific high pressure ridge will remain over NorCal this week with a very warm temperatures. The ridge will reach its peak amplitude this afternoon and Wednesday with high temperatures reaching from 15 to 25 degrees above normal.
807 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure continues to dominate with another pleasant morning across the area.
Besides a few flurries in the higher mountains of northern Nevada today, dry conditions will continue through much of the week. A strong high pressure ridge will set up over the western U.
High pressure will dominate today, though warm and moist advection aloft will result in mid-high level cloudiness and a brief stint of vorticity advection may cause isolated shower instances mainly in eastern Ohio on the van of approaching low pressure. Shower and elevated storm activity will diminish over the course of the night as the low pressure system moves east of the region.
523 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 There will be a few light showers in the high country this morning.
08z WV satellite shows a strong upper low centered just to our east with a notable upper jet wrapping around this feature over the CO/KS border extending southward over the Panhandles. Radar shows returns focusing on two areas - a band likely enhanced by upslope flow south of the Canadian River over the Highway 60 corridor and returns in the northeast associated with moist advection in the aforementioned northerly jet region west of the upper low. Given the strong gusts overnight and the propensity for guidance to underdo wind speeds in similar scenarios involving a departing but highly dynamic upper low, have gone with the high side of the guidance envelope for both sustained wind speeds and gusts. Moving ahead to Wednesday, northerly winds and breezy conditions continue as the upper low slowly churns eastward.
414 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (Issued 413 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022) Today through Wednesday: Low pressure over Oklahoma will track across southern WI Wednesday into Wednesday night. The deeper moisture will persist west of Madison, more in line with the inverted trough and upper low. Another period of showers should fill in from the southeast as the upper low retrogrades into western WI and eastern MN Wed afternoon.
648 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will build south into the region and provide fair weather today.
1018 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will build south into the region and provide fair weather today.
High pressure will generally be in control of our weather through tonight before a weak front grazes the northern portion of our forecast area Wednesday. The high pressure ridge axis will be directly overhead this afternoon, bringing much above normal temperatures to the forecast area.
418 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 There will be a few light showers in the high country this morning.
552 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania today while slow moving low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley tonight.
Upper ridge over the area will now give way to a pretty potent storm system later today/tonight. Deep upper low pulling out of the plains around 12z will slowly wobble up into the OH valley through midday Wed. Around daybreak Wed, a cold front will be across the area. Our trailing upper trough will dig again Wed night/Thu, and then take until early Fri morning to pass. We will also see a secondary cold front pass on Thu.
515 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure building into the region will bring mild and dry weather through Wednesday.
640 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a surface cold front was moving southeast across the area. Temperatures will also be much cooler behind the front, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 50s across the Big Country, to the mid 60s along the I-10 corridor.
500 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level low over the panhandle of Oklahoma/western Kansas. Impulses rotating around the upper level low is producing stratiform rain across southeast Nebraska/much of Iowa/southern Illinois per latest mosaic radar. Upper level low will slowly lift northeastward today through Wednesday night. as main isentropic lift/forcing in association with upper level low tracks over the region. Late tonight into Wednesday night slightly cooler airmass advects into the northern/western parts of the forecast area. If temperatures are a degree or two cooler than what is forecasted. near freezing.
/issued 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022/ A low pressure system will continue to track eastward this morning across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Convection ahead of a pre-frontal trough has moved into Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. This outflow boundary may be the trigger point of redevelopment by mid to late morning as the pre-frontal trough moves east of the Mississippi River.
1053 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Deep layer ridging across the area is slowly retreat eastward in advance of a very potent longwave trough moving through the Central Plains today. Winds should come down as we go into the afternoon as the aforementioned ridge continues to get shoved eastward. At the same time, the enhanced slug moisture situated on the western periphery of the ridge will also slide eastward. Breezes will further slacken to gentle to moderate after mid week as a high pressure cell moves further away and ahead of another frontal boundary later in the week.
438 AM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring warming for coastal areas into Wednesday.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 60 74 45 61 / 10 90 60 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 60 76 48 62 / 0 80 90 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 75 58 74 46 61 / 0 80 80 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 56 75 48 66 / 0 60 90 50 20 TN.
Breezy winds will be out of the north both Tuesday and Wednesday to go along with slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
/Issued 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022/ High pressure is currently situated across the Outer Banks of NC. A sprawling low pressure system is centered across central TX an central OK. A cold front extends SW from the low centers with a warm front over the northern GOMEX. High pressure and quiet conditions will persist through this afternoon. Conditions will begin to change late this evening and overnight as the frontal boundary begins to push eastward and the warm front begins to push northward. Boundary layer winds are very supportive of the warm front pushing north of the CWA by 12Z Wed.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) A highly amplified mid-level trough is centered over our CWA as an embedded cut-off low lifts through the central Plains. In the wake of a cold front passage overnight, northerly flow has set up across the region and will stick around through Wednesday as well.
653 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Aviation - Showery wx pattern today through Wednesday - Rain showers are forecast today through Wednesday as a low pressure system over the Plains states moves ne into our region for midweek. There is still a bit of potential for a brief period of -fzra early Wednesday morning over our extreme nne fcst area as temps briefly dip down to near/just below the freezing mark. However this would be of short duration with minimal impacts before temps rise back to above freezing by mid to late Wednesday morning.
I hope you enjoyed yesterday's warm temperatures because the rain has arrived! Low pressure in OK with a strong moisture transport northward into Iowa and Illinois. Highly amplified pattern with a deep trough in the Plains with a closed low in KS. This has the look and feel of a cut-off low due to being trapped between a full-latitude ridge along the West Coast and another ridge in the southeast United States.
338 AM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 A significant warming trend is forecast to take place across the forecast area over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure builds.
High pressure building into the region will bring mild and dry weather through Wednesday.
506 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Our area remains on the backside of the strong low pressure that ejected out over the plains yesterday. A weak wave will dig into the backside of the main trough later today and steepen the lapse rates in the process. Snowfall amounts will be limited, but a few inches could be possible within these bands in the higher terrain. Tomorrow the jet stream will begin to push eastward as a ridge noses over the Great Basin. The ridge will trigger warm advection beginning tomorrow so expect highs closer to normal.
645 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 A rainy and cooler period is at hand with rain spreading northeast today.
302 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure building into the region will bring mild and dry weather through Wednesday.
Warm temperatures will occur across much of northwest California this afternoon, particularly across the lower valleys of Lake and Mendocino Counties. Otherwise, temperatures will trend cooler during mid to late week, and periods of fog and stratus will be likely along the coast. An anomalous upper ridge was located over the West Coast early this morning. Otherwise, a strong multi-model signal exists this afternoon supporting high temperatures that will be well above normal, particularly across interior Mendocino County into Lake County, where temperatures are forecast to range from the low 80s to locally mid/upper 80s. Model guidance shows the previously mentioned upper ridge flattening and shifting eastward as height falls occur over the NERN PAC.
543 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper low currently over the area will gradually lift northeast during the day today. Otherwise, strong north winds will overspread the area in the wake of a strong cold front that will exit southeast Oklahoma later this morning.
100 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 I hope you enjoyed yesterday's warm temperatures because the rain has arrived! Low pressure in OK with a strong moisture transport northward into Iowa and Illinois. Highly amplified pattern with a deep trough in the Plains with a closed low in KS. This has the look and feel of a cut-off low due to being trapped between a full-latitude ridge along the West Coast and another ridge in the southeast United States.
This Wednesday night snow chances will be related to the wrap around precipition rather than the NW quadrant of the low as it moves off to the east. Bottom line, expect continued precipitation through Wednesday with chances for light slushy snow accumulations increasing during the cooler parts of the day (when the sun has set).
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Wednesday/ The cold front has pushed through the region and breezy northwest and west winds have brought colder temperatures into the region. Meanwhile wrap-around stratus has formed on the backside of the upper low and this will help keep temperatures cool today.
1157 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Our area remains on the backside of the strong low pressure that ejected out over the plains yesterday. A weak wave will dig into the backside of the main trough later today and steepen the lapse rates in the process. Snowfall amounts will be limited, but a few inches could be possible within these bands in the higher terrain. Tomorrow the jet stream will begin to push eastward as a ridge noses over the Great Basin. The ridge will trigger warm advection beginning tomorrow so expect highs closer to normal.
A strong cold front will enter Middle Tennessee late tonight.
Expect dry and slightly warmer temperatures for Wednesday.
201 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 A rainy and cooler period is at hand with rain spreading northeast today.
Consequently, Wednesday will only be a few degrees warmer with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. North winds will finally relax substantially Wednesday evening as the large upper low centered over the Midwest finally pushes the surface cyclone far enough away for the pressure gradient over southwest KS to weaken.
However, the cold front continues to lag well behind the earlier convection, as it has just moved into East Texas and SE Oklahoma. Also, changes were made to temps and pops to reflect the short-term trends, Temps will likely not climb much more as northwest winds in wake of the front will bring in cooler and drier air. Progs are pretty insistent that this area will destabilize with the low level directional shear remaining in place with an obvious tornado/damaging wind threat once again, mainly along and southeast of a line from lower Toledo Bend Lake to near Monroe, Louisiana. All this convection shifts east of our region by late this afternoon with the arrival of a cold front with uneventful weather tonight through Wednesday.
In the wake of this system, a cold front will finally clear our forecast area and bring in cooler, drier air from the west.
1253 PM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Building high pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring Santa Ana conditions over Southern California for the next few days with well above average temperatures and areas of gusty easterly winds.
This is due to an upper level trough currently situated over the area in combination with low level temperatures in the single digits Celsius. Tomorrow, breezy northerly winds will continue to advect a cooler airmass across the area and temperatures will continue to be well below average for the Southern Plains. The aforementioned H300 trough is not very progressive so it will still impact the upper level flow over the forecast area. A upper level wave riding along the backside of the upper low will propagate over the CWA tomorrow.
High pressure will dominate, though warm and moist advection aloft will result in mid-high level cloudiness and a brief stint of vorticity advection may cause isolated shower instances mainly in eastern Ohio on the van of approaching low pressure. The best chance for severe weather is coincident with what counties are outlooked, where sfc temperature will near the low 70s and dew points will be in the 50s.
232 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will build south into the region and provide fair weather today.
Gusty northwesterly winds will be the primary concern today as a cold front sweeps through. High pressure will build into the area today, bringing breezy, cooler, and drier conditions. The upper low/longwave trough will be slow to progress east, so we expect some mid and upper level clouds to pass across the region today and Wednesday, but no additional rainfall is expected.
Dry, windy and warmer with brisk northerly flow aloft and decent low and mid level gradients.
A pronounced northerly H5 jet streak extends through AZ sandwiched between a deep low pressure trough to the east and a strong Pacific NW Coastal ridge to the west. Expect highs to top out in the low 80s in Phoenix and the lower deserts, and the mid 80s out west, with a high of 82 for Phoenix under clear to mostly clear skies. Then ensembles support yet another dry disturbance dropping south across E AZ on Wed which will create an atypical northeast gradient with breezy to occasionally gusty NE winds and some patchy dust from near Phoenix and the lower deserts to SW AZ from Wed morning to early afternoon.
224 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 The dry conditions are expected to continue for the foreseeable future as a semi-permanent upper ridge will be in place over the western states through the weekend. weak surfce high pressure over the area late today will drift into the Dakotas Wednesday allowing a light southerly/return flow.
1233 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper low currently over the area will gradually lift northeast during the day today. Otherwise, strong north winds will overspread the area in the wake of a strong cold front that will exit southeast Oklahoma later this morning.
Deep layer ridging is sliding eastward which allowed for surface winds to becoming more out of the east and southeast. This in turn allowed for showers to develop and move across portions of the Lower Keys. Going back to the ridge for a moment, it is retreating eastward due to a potent trough in the Central U. This trough has been responsible for quite the weather headache, with fires, severe weather, and now winter hazards.
However, will have to continue evaluating record high potential for the next couple of days as our ridge begins to break down and move eastward. Winds and seas will diminish today with weak high pressure over the waters.
High pressure builds throughout the remainder of the week, leading to a significant warm up.
1244 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level low over the panhandle of Oklahoma/western Kansas. Impulses rotating around the upper level low is producing stratiform rain across southeast Nebraska/much of Iowa/southern Illinois per latest mosaic radar. Upper level low will slowly lift northeastward today through Wednesday night. as main isentropic lift/forcing in association with upper level low tracks over the region. Late tonight into Wednesday night slightly cooler airmass advects into the northern/western parts of the forecast area. If temperatures are a degree or two cooler than what is forecasted. near freezing.
Dry conditions can be expected through Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.
A blocking pattern aloft will keep the upper low from progressing much to the east the next 48 hrs.
The other issue is the risk of freezing rain in our most NE counties like Clare and Osceola continue to diminish. - Showery wx pattern today through Wednesday - Rain showers are forecast today through Wednesday as a low pressure system over the Plains states moves ne into our region for midweek. There is still a bit of potential for a brief period of -fzra early Wednesday morning over our extreme nne fcst area as temps briefly dip down to near/just below the freezing mark. However this would be of short duration with minimal impacts before temps rise back to above freezing by mid to late Wednesday morning.
High pressure will build further away to the east Tonight, as a frontal system moves east toward the region. A weak warm front will lift northeast across the area overnight, with a few showers lifting across. The cold front itself is expected to stretch from the Suwannee valley to near Brunswick late in the day. Convection is expected to initiate along and ahead of the cold front, with strong to severe storms possible.
254 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Increasingly cool temperatures and showers will be the main story for the next few days as a deep upper trof/upper low progresses slowly from the Plains into the MS Valley. The progression of the trof will send a cold/occluded front through the area late tonight and Wednesday morning, while a series of short waves/vort maxes rotating through the upper trof and about the upper low center will provide the impetus for showers. Meanwhile a more prominent short wave trof currently centered through eastern KS has been generating a north- south area of showers across western MO, and even a few storms where MUCAPE is 250-500 J/KG. Clouds and the passage of the front will make for a cooler day and below normal temperatures.
High pressure will be present today and Wednesday, keeping the region precipitation-free while helping to warm valley temperatures into the 50s and 60s in western Montana, and 60s to 70s in central Idaho by Wednesday.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 74 45 61 42 / 100 50 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 76 48 62 42 / 90 80 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 74 46 61 41 / 90 70 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 75 48 66 41 / 70 90 30 20 20 TN.
357 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (Issued 337 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low pressure over southeastern KS will occlude and lift northeast through tomorrow. Broad synoptic lift over the region coupled with a frontal boundary draped over northern Illinois into Indiana and ample moisture will provide a favorable environment for rain to form and fill in ahead of the low.