Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low temperatures tonight will be warmer tonight and generally in the mid 50s as increased cloudiness and increasing moisture keeps things warmer tonight.
The storm system will clear the region by Tuesday morning, ending the rain with it, as a cold front moves through the region. Satellite data shows the uper level vort max has tracked to the east northeast, reaching norhteast KS, with the short wave trough axis extending to the southeast. Improvement to MVFR tomorrow morning behind the upper wave, as pcpn moves east and cold front has moved through, with winds shifting to the northwest.
With temperatures still in the lower 30s, there could be a little rain or snow. Have some concerns for the high temperatures tomorrow. Temperatures cool into the lower 30s, but precipitation should end before the temperatures cool enough to change the precipitation type.
350 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure off the coast will persist into mid week.
Southerly winds were continuing to gust between 35 and 40 mph as a cold front was pushing its way across eastern Kansas. As we head through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night, a warm front will lift through much of the area allowing warm air and moisture to return to the area in the wake of todays cold front.
It's associated cold front will have moved farther southeast out of WI. An upper level trough swings southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and through the Northland. Skew-T's reveal a moist mid level falling into a dry slot in the lower levels initially. Overnight the atmospheric profile becomes saturated in the lower levels and stays below freezing causing primarily snowfall. After the trough passage skies will begin clearing out beginning over northern MN and filtering down into north WI in the early morning. Winds in the lower levels shift to out of the southwest and the Northland experiences WAA once again. Temperatures are forecasted to climb into the lower to mid 40s across the region.
Isolated showers along the coast and over the coastal wates will taper off this evening as an inverted trough weakens and lifts north.
Models suggest that some patchy fog is possible by morning as moisture returns, especially those areas that see the lightest winds and remain on the back edge of the high clouds streaming across the area overnight.
An associated cold front will approach Memphis by sunrise, likely stalling along the Interstate 40 corridor. GOES-16 satellite trends and 00z upper air analysis depict an upper level ridge axis now centered near the Carolinas while an upper level jet transports mid/upper level moisture into then Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from the Pacific Ocean.
Tue-Tue night: With southerly flow on the eastern periphery of a developing lee cyclone, expect temperatures to rebound into the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s during the day on Tue.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 66 55 70 54 / 70 90 60 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 63 53 68 52 / 70 90 60 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 54 63 52 68 50 / 80 90 60 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 62 49 64 47 / 70 90 60 60 30.
As the short wave moves through overnight, cooler temperatures and the loss of the dendritic growth zone lead to the low possibility of some light mixed precipitation.
1219 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 A cold front will continue to push southeast across the Upper Midwest today. The highest precipitation totals will be to the south along I-90, where up to 0.
High pressure that is behind a cold front will eventually move off to the east through the overnight. Much of the FA is likely to remain above freezing. Some models keep residual cloud cover longer across the eastern zones and struggle to keep highs out of the lower 60s. The net result is highs in the mid 70s near Elkhart with a range to the lower to mid 60s across the eastern zones.
223 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Cold front crosses Tuesday.
Until then, zonal flow aloft will dominate as a closed off upper low churns off the southern California coast this week.
Lows tonight will range from the lower teens in the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley, to the mid 20s southwest.
At 345 PM, skies were cloudy, the north winds were blowing, and rain, snow, sleet or freezing rain were falling over much of the region, essentially Monday was being all the Monday it could be. to go along with the precipitation, afternoon high temperatures were drastically cooler today, with most locations running 33 to 38 degrees colder than 24 hours ago.
Clear skies under high pressure tonight will allow for a sharp temperature drop across the northeast before clouds move in once again toward morning. Temperatures will remain much cooler than normal on Tuesday with highs only topping out in the low to mid 30s in the eastern forecast area. High pressure nudges back in from the northwest Tuesday night.
Much of the rain is ahead of a cold front that is expected to stall south of the Interstate 40 corridor early tomorrow. The front will lift North as a warm front tomorrow afternoon.
Have gone a little cooler than most guidance, especially along and east of the Red River Valley. For Tuesday, winds will turn around to the south, but will remain on the lower side.
High pressure is currently in the Atlantic and will slowly push east through the period. Strong high pressure in the Atlantic is giving us gusty winds out of the east this afternoon. High pressure will move away tomorrow which will help to calm the winds and make for pleasant boating conditions for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
358 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Latest surface analysis shows cold front is nearing Osage County, with wind shift extending into north central Oklahoma and temperatures in the upper 40s behind the front. Ahead of the boundary, temperatures have jumped into the low to mid 70s where there has been some clearing.
Subtle weak mid/upper ridging is anticipated across the area on Tuesday with return flow and low level warm air advection. We could see some morning virga or perhaps a few showers across portions of central KS early Tue and limited insolation may keep temperatures from reaching their full potential with most locations seeing highs in the lower 60s. A robust mid/upper trough is progged to move over the Northern Plains on Thu driving a cold front south into the Central Plains. A strong cold front will continue moving southeast across eastern and southeast Kansas this afternoon, with stout/gusty northwest winds in its wake.
1156 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Light southerly winds will bring milder temperatures beginning today as high pressure shifts off the Carolina coasts. Shower chances will increase late Tue thru Wed as a cold front drops down from the northwest. The next cold frontal passage will occur Fri, ending the threat of pcpn. Temperature curve is stabilizing now as we head to the lower to possibly middle 70s. Low amplitude ridging aloft will progress off the East coast today followed by low amplitude troffing that will push across the FA during Tue. Tue still warrants possible shra but with flow aloft not able to capitalize on any moisture pools, pcpn chances to remain on the lower side as moisture progged to scour out some after crossing the Appalachians.
This is all ahead of a cold front that is moving southeast across the forecast area. Rest of the Forecast: High pressure will move through the area Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather and decreasing cloud cover during the day.
309 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave trough sliding east- northeast into the Ohio River Valley. A second trough axis is east of the Bahamas. Model data does not seem to think there is any surface reflection with this mid-upper level trough, although surface observations beg to differ. Weak inverted curvature and deeper convection reveal a weak SFC feature along the southern flank of the Bermuda High, collocated with speed convergence in the lower tropospheric easterlies. Northeast to east winds average near 20 mph along the island chain, with occasional gusts in the low 30s. Temperatures are in the upper 70s, and dewpoints are in the lower 60s.
At the mid and upper levels, a weak trough will move through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region tonight. In association with this trough, a weak low pressure system and attendant cold front is expected to slide through the Mid State. The nature of Tuesday's cold front is weak, so temperatures will remain relatively unaffected.
119 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Another mild and windy day on tap this afternoon with highs generally in the lower 60s. Somewhat cooler air follows for the remainder of the week, though high temperatures will remain near of slightly above normal, with highs primarily in the 40s and 50s. Mixing within warm low level thermal trough will yield widespread 60-65 degree temps this aftn.
Heavy rain is not expected and temperatures will remain above freezing.
Upper trough continues to move slowly across the southeast portion of the area this afternoon. Moisture has lifted into far south central MN and combined with some channeled FGEN along the trough, we see some narrow banded precipitation developing into south central MN. With high pressure moving into the area, temperatures are expected to drop back into the teens northwest area with 20s generally elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to warm through the lower 40s to the east with 30s common to the west, where clouds and precipitation develop into the afternoon.
SPC mesoanalysis displaying best moisture convergence, precip water and thetaE advection just ahead of approaching cold front. Once these thunderstorms exit early this morning, not expecting more development of TS until later tonight as the Low core arrives. As the Low slides across northern Illinois tonight, this will push the strong winds eastward. Mid-week, will feature a system that progresses through the lower-Mississippi River/Tennessee Valley region, which will bring the opportunity for rainfall across southern Illinois. High pressure over eastern Canada at the same time, will help to hold moisture around the Great Lakes.
/issued 212 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/ A cold front has moved through the forecast area bringing a wind shift to northwest and a period of gusty winds but little in the way of cooler air. Upper level ridging will build overhead starting tomorrow and continue through much of the week. At the surface lee side troughing will result in west to southwest winds.
501 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Cloud cover continues to lower and thicken this afternoon downstream of a low pressure system moving along the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri. Gusty/breezy southwest winds will veer west/northwesterly into Tuesday afternoon as the front passes through, before diminishing below 5 knots during the evening/overnight as weak surface ridging builds overhead.
926 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Showers ahead of a cold front continue to move through the Mid-South at this time. A second narrow line of showers is occurring ahead of the cold front, currently located across Missouri into Northwest Arkansas. Lows will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Much of the rain is ahead of a cold front that is expected to stall south of the Interstate 40 corridor early tomorrow. The front will lift North as a warm front tomorrow afternoon.
Across the plains, temperatures are expected to rebound into the lower and mid 60s under sunny to partly cloudy skies.
/issued 236 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020/ High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters through Tuesday while slowly weakening. Despite the slow addition in moisture to the lower portions of the atmospheric column, weak ridging aloft will aid in keeping precipitation chances on the lower end. Thereafter, strong mid to upper level ridging builds northward from the Yucatan, however, the GFS is slower to build the ridge and allows a weak, frontal boundary to reach South Florida early this weekend before dissipating. While the ECMWF on the other hand, keeps the front well to the north with a faster building ridge.
307 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Weak divergence couplet aloft with upslope flow will support foothills snow activity tonight with lesser amounts reaching the lower elevations. Leading edge of a 300mb jeet over the Canadian Rockies will be enhanching leeside troughing which will support mixing and temperautres will reach the 50s.
758 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Cold front crosses Tuesday.
Cooler weather with rain chances return during the weekend. A weak short wave trough is working its way through NorCal today and that is bringing scattered clouds along with a slight chance for showers over the Lassen Park area. Our focus then will shift to a closed off upper level low currently about 850 miles off the southern CA coast. This upper level low will push east on Tuesday and as it does it will bring a chance for some light showers to the far southern part of our area.
1029 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Currently - A high pressure ridge aligned east/west off the Carolina coast is generating fresh to strong easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. The continued easterly flow has brought in steadily warmer and more humid air. Temperatures are near or slightly above 70 degrees with dew point temperatures in the lower 60s. Short Term Update - Windy conditions will continue overnight due to the high cell off to our northeast. Strong high pressure off the Carolina coast will maintain fresh easterly breezes on Keys waters.
Strong cold front sliding east across the region this afternoon and evening will bring a brief period of MVFR cigs this evening to NE OK sites, and a period of IFR cigs over far NW AR. VFR conditions and light winds are expected on Tuesday once the low clouds burn off over NW AR. /Issued 358 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/ Latest surface analysis shows cold front is nearing Osage County, with wind shift extending into north central Oklahoma and temperatures in the upper 40s behind the front. Ahead of the boundary, temperatures have jumped into the low to mid 70s where there has been some clearing.
Another trough is expected to bring more cool temperatures and possible rain for the weekend. An upper level low off the southern CA coast and a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest are bringing low topped cumulus clouds to the inland areas.
A weak inverted trough was lifting northward across the waters and will weaken and dissipate overnight. Isolated showers along the coast and over the coastal waters will taper off this evening as an inverted trough weakens and lifts north.
556 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into mid week.
815 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Rain will continue overnight as a cold front approaches. It will be a bit cooler in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday, with highs ranging from the lower 40s near Lake Michigan to the middle 50s in east central Indiana into northwest Ohio.
905 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into mid week.
/issued 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/ Temperatures are warming quickly this afternoon thanks to westerly downsloping winds and a weak 500 hpa ridge building over the region.
A midwest trough with an associated weak frontal boundary will wash out over the CWA during the next 36 hours bringing scattered showers along with it.
Mid and high level clouds continue to stream ENE across the lower OH Valley early this afternoon, but with some filtered sunshine across east-central KY. ASOS and KY Mesonet obs show temps currently in the lower and mid 60s with wind gusts of 20-30 mph (a few gusts just over 30 mph). However, well after midnight into the morning hours Tuesday, lapse rates aloft steepen somewhat, while low-level wind fields remain robust ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will pass across southern IN and central KY on Tuesday, with a little cooler but still mild high temps reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Moisture in the low levels is deep enough to develop some light showers over the Atlantic, and around 20 knots of E/ESE flow from just off the surface to about 6500 ft may bring some of these light showers/sprinkles onshore from this evening into tonight.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 67 53 70 55 / 70 80 60 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 65 51 67 52 / 60 70 60 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 54 65 49 67 51 / 70 70 60 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 64 48 64 47 / 50 60 60 30 30.
The storm system will clear the region by Tuesday morning, ending the rain with it, as a cold front moves through the region. Satellite data shows the upper level vort max has tracked to the east northeast, reaching northeast KS, with the short wave trough axis extending to the southeast. IFR to low MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in rain are predominant across the central IL terminals this evening as a storm system affects the area with an associated cold front still approaching from the northwest. Surface obs show an expansive area of generally IFR cigs surrounding the cold front which should cross the area late tonight, so have kept IFR cigs until 10Z-14Z, gradually lifting to MVFR and scattering out Tuesday afternoon to evening.
Northerly post-frontal winds may persist for a few hours of the early evening across the far eastern part of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, but southeast and south winds expected to prevail through the night as zonal flow sustains lee trof over eastern New Mexico. Lee trof deepens on Tuesday and moves into northwest and western parts of the forecast area.
Rain chances should eventually increase after midnight as broad ascent on the van of the aforementioned trough encroaches the forecast area. Additional showers will develop along this boundary, aided by closer proximity to the trough axis. Depending on heating/recovery, isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the aftn when the trough axis will approach region, with cooling temperature aloft potentially unlocking weak instability.
Subtle weak mid/upper ridging is anticipated across the area on Tuesday with return flow and low level warm air advection. We could see some morning virga or perhaps a few showers across portions of central KS early Tue and limited insolation may keep temperatures from reaching their full potential with most locations seeing highs in the lower 60s. A robust mid/upper trough is progged to move over the Northern Plains on Thu driving a cold front south into the Central Plains. Cold front currently stretches from northeast MO into far eastern OK with storms developing along this feature in southern MO.
/issued 926 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/ Showers ahead of a cold front continue to move through the Mid-South at this time. A second narrow line of showers is occurring ahead of the cold front, currently located across Missouri into Northwest Arkansas. Lows will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Much of the rain is ahead of a cold front that is expected to stall south of the Interstate 40 corridor early tomorrow. The front will lift North as a warm front tomorrow afternoon.
346 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into mid week. A cold front is expected to stall over or just north of the region this weekend. Today: The forecast area will be situated between high pressure over the central Atlantic and a slow moving cold front back across the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Expect another mild afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 70s. A warm and moist airmass will remain in place during the period as high pressure lingers offshore.
Isolated showers along the coast and over the coastal waters will taper off this evening as an inverted trough weakens and lifts north.
Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Northern Plains south into central/eastern Kansas. High pressure that is behind a cold front will eventually move off to the east through the overnight. Much of the FA is likely to remain above freezing. Some models keep residual cloud cover longer across the eastern zones and struggle to keep highs out of the lower 60s. The net result is highs in the mid 70s near Elkhart with a range to the lower to mid 60s across the eastern zones.
The storm system will clear the region by Tuesday morning, ending the rain with it, as a cold front moves through the region. Satellite data shows the upper level vort max has tracked to the east northeast, reaching northeast KS, with the short wave trough axis extending to the southeast. IFR to low MVFR cigs and scattered showers surround a cold front pushing eastward through the central IL terminals, currently near KSPI-KBMI.
The strongest winds will likely be across the western Panhandles as a surface lee-side trough strengthens ahead of a mid and upper level trough moving southeast from the central Rockies. As the short wave trough moves across the northern parts of the CWA this evening it may produce some virga. A weak cold front will move across the Panhandles early on Wednesday behind the departing short wave trough. This lee-side trough will help to turn the winds around to the south during the afternoon on Wednesday. High temperatures may only be a few degrees cooler than today given the quick turn-around to southerly winds.
Out west, the models continue to struggle with the evolution of the upper low off the SOCAL coast. The northern Plains trough will trigger lee cyclogenesis across the Oklahoma Panhandle which, in turn, will drive a Pacific front through the region late tonight followed by a cold front toward sunrise Wednesday that may have a hard time making it through the CWFA. In terms of sensible weather, we continue to monitor low level moisture along a warm front located just north of I20 at 2AM which, combined with the low level moisture from yesterday's rains, upslope wind trajectory, and increasing low level moisture, may contribute to fog development later this morning. It will begin to be swept up in the large scale flow as a large scale trough moves down the Canadian and western US coast.
1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020 06Z TAF Discussion: Look for ceilings to vary over the next 24-hours as a cold front moves through the Four-States region.
Winds have shifted as a cold front pushed through the region, bringing breezy northwest winds into central Illinois. Temperatures will be cooler today, however another warmup starts Wednesday.
These will generate along a cold front now draped from southern IL through western AR, and forecast to enter northwest AL and middle TN early this afternoon. Temperatures will only fall into the lower 50s overnight due to lower cloud cover remaining.
Most of the showers will move east of our area and decrease in coverage by midday, but a few stragglers will occur or perhaps a narrow band will form as a weak cold front crosses the area late morning into early afternoon.
As the short wave moves through overnight, cooler temperatures and the loss of the dendritic growth zone lead to the low possibility of some light mixed precipitation. Temperatures start on the cooler side Wednesday morning, but with a shift towards southerly winds and clearing skies expect temperatures to rebound into the upper 40s to lower 60s.
Southerlies will return to western Kansas early this morning and strengthen through this afternoon as the trough axis deepens. This will pull warmer air back into the area with highs well up into the 60s(F) likely this afternoon with a few lower/mid 70s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Cooler air will filter into western Kansas late tonight behind a weak cold front pushing through the high plains into Northern Oklahoma. Expect lows down into the 30s(F) to the lower 40s(F).
Light showers are also possible for the southeast AL and portions of southwest GA as a weak cold front orients itself along the OH/TN valley. This, combined with the influence of high pressure and warm/moist Gulf air moving over cool shelf waters, makes patchy fog a possibility overnight into the early morning hours.
There is a weak cold front to follow from the northwest this evening, and this will trigger an additional round of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight.