Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN MT. STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGER WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROF. CAPE INCREASES TO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER WESTERN SD. AND THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS WITH TROF. BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER EASTERN ZONES.
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH FORCED OFF THE COAST AND CENTRAL NC SITTING AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
STILL A MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.
/ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/ A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AND WASH OUT BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BECOME MORE ENHANCED ALSO AS THE NIGHT-TIME HRS PROGRESS. OTHER THAN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF AREA 30/18Z-30/24Z IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION PATTERN 30/12Z- 30/24Z. THIS AREA LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK COVERAGE MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF ZONAL TO JUST NORTH TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY WEST FROM UTAH TO NEVADA. MORE STABLE AIR UNDER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TO LEVELS BELOW A 15 PERCENT CHANCE.
602 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
607 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. LEADING TO WARMER TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW.
333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY.
210 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MID WEEK OVER ILLINOIS COULD PUSH THE STORM TRACK FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR COUNTIES.
HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS SW/S/SE AREAS.
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES. A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS BRINGING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY AND THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK TROF/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG TROF OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MAYBE A TAD COOLER ON TEMPERATURES AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL 2-3 DEGREES C OVER TODAY. A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER HIGH MEANDERING OVER THE SW CONUS.
The atmosphere will destabilize this afternoon due to daytime heating, especially across IL near the axis of the upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes region where mid level temperatures will be a little colder and hence lapse rates steeper.
OVER THE COMING WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ABOUT THE WESTERN STATES WITH MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH.
504 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. 31 MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH.
656 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT. THIS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN THIS AFTERNOON. SERIES OF SHRTWV'S OVER SWRN CANADA/NE PAC EXPECTED TO TOP WRN RIDGE AND DROP SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY MID-WEEK. REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR CWA FOR DRY WX HERE WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS DOMINATES.
-VINCENT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED/WED NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL EXIST IN ASSOC/W MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEABREEZE AND/OR PIEDMONT TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. -VINCENT THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE PATTERN REFLECTS A SIMILARLY RESILIENT LEE TROF.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PULLS OUT.
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL. TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CONSISTING OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS. BUT MOST OF THIS HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST-TX RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKEST. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EVEN FARTHER EAST TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY LESSEN PRECIP CHANCES EVEN MORE. THE RIDGE EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA-WIDE.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICTS SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. WITH DEEP MID AND UPPER RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED UP INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA FROM DEEP WARM CORE RIDGING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. TROUGHING PREVAILS OF COURSE. WITH ONE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE AXIS OF A REGIONAL SCALE WARM CORE RIDGE IS EAST OF THAT AND NOSES FROM THE CARIBBEAN UP TO EAST OF FLORIDA. BETWEEN ANOTHER WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW NEAR 28 NORTH AND 70 WEST. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE NOSE OF DEEP WARM RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. BLAZING SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ON THE WAY TO THE LOWER 90S.
THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. BUT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
855 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WAS BEING DEFORMED SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH LIFTED THROUGH NE UTAH-NW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS NW COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE A WET DAY FAVORING NW COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PASSING TROUGH PRODUCES ORGANIZED FORCING. THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED TO THE SE WITH NW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. LATE-DAY SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE THE FLATTENED RIDGE KEEPS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK SHEER. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER TX AND NM.
UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TN THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AT CHA BY 00Z AND AT TYS LATE TONIGHT AT TRI LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LINGER AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WSR-88D PROFILERS SHOWED AND UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE TN. TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW LIFT INTO EASTERN KY.
/KEG/ BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PULL BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLEARING. AWAY FROM THE COAST, WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N 133W AT 9Z) VERY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST AND THEN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MON/MON NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO DISTANT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO RISE.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
727 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION TODAY.
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FINALLY TRYING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
CLOUD COVER IS THICK THIS MORNING AS LIFT FROM A TROUGH TO THE NORTH COMBINES WITH LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM NV. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL END UP PUSHING SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE U. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. MONDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW KICKS OUT.
LEE TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WITH ALL THE WET GROUND AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIKELY TO SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST. EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
1051 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY. WINDS LOOK ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER AWAY TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARD IL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY.
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN A MEANDERING AND HALTING EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER (CURRENTLY 2000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD).
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER.
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN CHARGE WAS DRIFTING OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC TROF WAS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE MCS INTO NW MN. THIS TROF WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AND BE THE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. A PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF DUE TO A LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WARM H85 TEMPS WHICH WILL REACH TO NEAR 18C BY 00Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ALONG GULF COAST TODAY WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG WEST COAST SEABREEZE BY MIDDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
The high clouds have prevented stratus from developing so far this morning. /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow aloft. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
722 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS.
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 68 88 70 / 80 40 40 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 66 84 67 / 90 50 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 66 84 67 / 90 40 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 65 82 64 / 90 70 50 30 NC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LESS WITH PWS OF 1. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ERODES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK INTO MEXICO ON MONDAY WHILE THE EASTERN RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE MORE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH BRINGS SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR 1.
659 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY.
1032 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND CENTER ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU.
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF A POTENT FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND AND UPPER 70S. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
VERY ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND TAMAULIPAS COASTAL WATERS RIGHT NOW. 5 INCHES AND 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WAS RETAINED.
A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS AND 700 MB TEMPS HAD COOLED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO A WEAK 500 MB LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A SHARP TROUGH AXIS FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE MODEST MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE 700-500 TROUGH AXIS SHOULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS A BIT WEAKER ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH RESIDES OVER FLORIDA AND A SECOND HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 6 INCHES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT.
THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. BUT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
947 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CAPPING AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF ABOUT 14KFT.
AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS /NAMELY THE 00Z NMM/ DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
This southerly flow will get winds going and bring in warmer/moister air into the area. By Monday a cold front will be stationed just off to the northwest, and will eventually move southward into the forecast area, likely in the Monday evening to Monday night time frame. The main change to this forecast package is to hold off on the timing of this broad mid level trough and it's associated surface cold front.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY JULY. THIS PARTICULAR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
Warm and breezy conditions are then expected through the night tonight into Monday morning, ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING.
Thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain this afternoon and spread slowly east. That won't last too long though as a cold front brings good rain chances and continued below normal temperatures. The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern Mexico.
90S WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE PASSED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS.