Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Patchy fog continues to develop early this morning with latest satellite image indicating denser fog forming in some of the lower valley areas. Focus quickly turns to the severe weather/heavy rainfall potential this evening into the overnight hours as potent upper level trough moves out of the central Rockies and into the Plains. Latest 00Z NAM/CAM solutions continue to indicate strong to severe thunderstorms will rapidly develop early this evening near the I-35 corridor along approaching cold front.
An unseasonably warm and moist air mass is lifting out of the gulf this morning ahead of a weak area of low pressure that is over North LA/South AR. The associated cold front trails back into Central Texas. Aloft an upper trough is located across the west half of the country and is pushing into the plains. This will pull the weak front over Texas back north as the low in North Louisiana fills. This will increase the moisture and temperatures through the day and with the approaching upper trough and jet streak showers and storms will be possible, but mainly in the afternoon.
1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Forecast focus is for a strong low pressure system on Sunday into Monday bringing thunderstorms, cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Cold front will move across the western counties and KC Metro area Sunday evening through about midnight expect showers and storms to develop just west of the Metro area and increase in coverage as they move east into higher moisture source. Thunderstorms expected to be non-severe due to limited moisture with PWs around one inch near the cold front and limited CAPE, there will be decent mid level lapse rates and shear near 50-60 knots which could support a few strong storms especially in areas south of Highway 50.
The weather pattern will undergo changes heading into Sunday/Monday as a strong low pressure system emerges from the Rockies and crosses the plains. The upper low pressure system is expected to track along the NE/SD border Sunday (followed closer to the GFS/ECMWF solution vs the farther north NAM). The upper low pressure system will continue to trek east Sunday night, with the associated cold front pushing south through our area overnight. Also Monday, our SW zones will again see aftn low relative humidity in the low 20th percentile which could be a concern in areas where fuels are dry given the expected wind speeds. Post frontal temps Monday will be cooler in the 50s.
Winds will be light with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Some model differences on where this convergence/rainfall band initially sets up, but this will lift eastward through the area on Sunday afternoon and evening, with brief drying afterward as the center of the low tracks eastward. Out ahead of the low, an increasing gradient will result in strong southeasterly winds by afternoon. It will be another relatively mild day however with highs into the lower 60s. Monday will be a much cooler day with highs only around 50. Models continue to indicate wrap around precipitation lingering through Monday night, and while this precipitation will primarily be rain, thermal profiles will cool just enough by late at night that we could see a little snow mix with the rain over the Buffalo Ridge area.
Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front for the rest of the week. The front will wash over the area, also suppressing the warmer low level temps a touch. More significant trough will dig across the Plains into the Great Lakes and become negatively tilted resulting in deep low pressure at the surface and an eventual roughly 530 dm closed upper low over N WI by 12Z Tues. Strong cold front will sweep across the area during the day Monday with area of showers racing west to east roughly in the 15Z Mon - 00Z Tue window.
153 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Building high pressure off of the Pacific Coast will bring decreasing winds and a warming trend going into the first half of this week.
A dry cold front may bring temperatures down mid week with breezy conditions.
Models, especially several of the short term ones, are trending a lot faster with the cold front tonight and associated squall line that is expected to develop ahead of it. High pressure will then settle over the Mid-South for the middle of the week.
A cold front will move in Monday, bringing with it a line of storms, some storms could be strong to severe. Models continue to show a cold front, with a deep low, moving eastwards across the region Monday. There is agreement that the trough axis will have a slightly negative tilt, suggesting that some storms could be strong to severe.
548 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Winter weather has made its return for the high country with the main bulk of moisture trailing behind the cold front, currently positioned just south of the I-70 corridor. Low pressure deepening to our east will transition flow to the northwest this afternoon, which with residual moisture, will allow orographic showers to persist over the northern and central mountains through this evening. Mountain showers should taper off Monday afternoon as ridging builds in from the west.
IR imagery showing a fairly strong low pressure system in the vicinity of Worland to Riverton this morning. Cold front associated with the low extends south along the Laramie Range this morning. Wrap around moisture from the low looks to track right over that area and am getting some fairly high snow totals up there. Gradients begin to ease after 21Z this afternoon as the low tracks into South Dakota.
647 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 With the closed low heading into the north central Plains, an occluded/cold front will swing through our area this morning. We should get dry-slotted pretty quickly and our next shot for precip will come very late tonight as we get some light rain/sprinkle chances as we get wrap-around on the back side of the low.
452 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Current surface analysis places low over northeast Wyoming with ridge over the midwest. Upper level analysis places broad trough stretching from the Canadian prairies southward towards the southern Rockies. For today, upper low will continue to close off and deepen as it shifts east over far southern South Dakota. On Monday, upper low continues to slide east over the Minnesota/Iowa border during the day before shifting towards the northeast.
345 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Winter weather has made its return for the high country with the main bulk of moisture trailing behind the cold front, currently positioned just south of the I-70 corridor. Low pressure deepening to our east will transition flow to the northwest this afternoon, which with residual moisture, will allow orographic showers to persist over the northern and central mountains through this evening. Mountain showers should taper off Monday afternoon as ridging builds in from the west.
A warming trend will begin on Monday as the Eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure builds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 58 76 54 / 10 10 60 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 55 77 55 / 10 0 30 100 Oak Ridge, TN 72 56 75 54 / 10 0 40 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 50 75 55 / 20 10 10 100.
at this time, am not carrying additional coverage late in the period with the approach of a cold front, but will likely see some showers/storms around KAEX at that time. An unseasonably warm and moist air mass is lifting out of the gulf this morning ahead of a weak area of low pressure that is over North LA/South AR. The associated cold front trails back into Central Texas. Aloft an upper trough is located across the west half of the country and is pushing into the plains. This will pull the weak front over Texas back north as the low in North Louisiana fills. This will increase the moisture and temperatures through the day and with the approaching upper trough and jet streak showers and storms will be possible, but mainly in the afternoon.
Winds will start out southerly then veer and strengthen through the day to more of a westerly and eventually northwesterly direction as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. /issued 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ Short wave rotating around the base of the upper low to our north will move across the northern Panhandle this afternoon into the evening. Following the passage of the upper short wave this evening, a cold front will push across the area tonight with winds becoming more northwesterly.
A cold front will move through the area this evening and early Monday morning, resulting in a wind shift to the north along with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Cold Front and Possible Rain. First, highs today will again be warmer than usual mid October highs, as the atmosphere reacts to the approaching front. Then, overnight tonight winds will shift and be from the north, as the cold front moves across Texas.
Low pressure has moved east and there's nothing on radar at the time, though there's plenty of higher stratocumulus over areas west of the Cascades. High pressure over the eastern Pacific is set to build north over the next few days and this will initiate as a warm front lifting north across the area today.
Incoming swell heights and periods will remain elevated so have continued the High Risk of Rip Currents along the Gulf beaches of Northwest Florida and Alabama. Overnight lows will trend well above seasonable norms, only falling into the low to mid 60s over interior locations to upper 60s to low 70s along the Gulf coast. A moist southwesterly flow develops aloft this evening as the mid level ridge over the area shifts east.
A dry cold front will push through the area today, with high temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees in northeast Arizona.
629 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move northeast of the area this morning, and dry high pressure will build in behind the low.
Near normal temperatures today then warmer than normal for the remainder of this week.
825 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Latest RAP model shows weak high pressure building into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through tonight as a frontal boundary resides across the southern part of the state. Atlantic high pressure ridges across the Bahamas to western Cuba.
528 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Rain will clip the southeast half of central PA today as low pressure (Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor) continues to move northeast along the Southeast U.
410 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Short wave rotating around the base of the upper low to our north will move across the northern Panhandle this afternoon into the evening. Following the passage of the upper short wave this evening, a cold front will push across the area tonight with winds becoming more northwesterly.
The low pressure system responsible for valley rain and mountain snow the last 24 hours is slowly but surely moving out of the northern Rockies.
Current surface analysis places low over northeast Wyoming with ridge over the midwest. Upper level analysis places broad trough stretching from the Canadian prairies southward towards the southern Rockies. For today, upper low will continue to close off and deepen as it shifts east over far southern South Dakota. On Monday, upper low continues to slide east over the Minnesota/Iowa border during the day before shifting towards the northeast.
730 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Rain will clip the southeast half of central PA today as low pressure (Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor) continues to move northeast along the Southeast U.
Another round of precipitation will impact northern Utah late Sunday night through early Monday afternoon, followed by drier and warmer conditions heading into midweek.
Cold Front and Possible Rain. First, highs today will again be warmer than usual mid October highs, as the atmosphere reacts to the approaching front. Then, overnight tonight winds will shift and be from the north, as the cold front moves across Texas.
/Issued 301 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ Patchy fog continues to develop early this morning with latest satellite image indicating denser fog forming in some of the lower valley areas. Focus quickly turns to the severe weather/heavy rainfall potential this evening into the overnight hours as potent upper level trough moves out of the central Rockies and into the Plains. Latest 00Z NAM/CAM solutions continue to indicate strong to severe thunderstorms will rapidly develop early this evening near the I-35 corridor along approaching cold front.
There is the potential for significant hail (> 2" in diameter), damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes with thunderstorms that are expected to develop ahead of a cold front just south and east of the OKC metro area this evening. The 06Z simple water vapor imagery places the center of the 500MB long wave trough near western Wyoming. A strong (150kt) jet maxima, placed to the west of the trough axis, will prompt further intensification of this trough and leeside cyclogenesis across western Nebraska and Kansas today. The prefrontal trough will swing southeastward causing winds to shift to the NW-ly in Woodward by 21Z, OKC by 00-03Z, and Ada by 06Z. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front by by 00Z across east-central Oklahoma.
Post the front, into Mon afternoon the southern half of the forecast area could get a break from the rain as a mid level dry punch wraps into the low. Strongest winds will come on the backside of the low, kicking up later Monday night, persisting through much of Tue.
High pressure will build in for Monday and Monday night.
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 A strong upper low over Colorado and Wyoming resulting in breezy southwest to west winds at the terminals this afternoon, shifting to northwest behind a cold front this evening. /issued 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ Short wave rotating around the base of the upper low to our north will move across the northern Panhandle this afternoon into the evening. Following the passage of the upper short wave this evening, a cold front will push across the area tonight with winds becoming more northwesterly.
For the rest of today clouds and winds will increase ahead of deepening upper level trough to the west. Cold front will move into the western counties and KC Metro area this evening through about midnight expect showers and thunderstorms to develop west of area this afternoon and move into far western counties between 7 and 8 pm and affecting the KC Metro area between roughly 8 pm and midnight and then heading east overnight and will be east of the area by the early morning hours.
Temperatures are sitting in the low to mid 70s for most Middle TN locations. A cold front will be racing east through the Midwest, with rain and storms out in advance.
However, these sites are expected to go VFR in the next hour or two as a warm front continues to lift northeast. Convection will be very isolated through the remainder of today but begin to increase later tonight ahead of a cold front. As a result, temperatures have begun to climb much more quickly on their way into the lower to mid 80s for afternoon highs with increasing sunshine.
Looking for lows in the lower 40s. It will be a cooler day with cold air advection behind the system, with highs only nudging up a few degrees above morning lows - into the mid and upper 40s.
High clouds increasing this morning as a warm front edges into the region.
A cold front will move through the area this evening and early Monday morning, resulting in a wind shift to the north along with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the area this evening and early Monday morning, resulting in a wind shift to the north along with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. First, highs today will again be warmer than usual mid October highs, as the atmosphere reacts to the approaching front. Then, overnight tonight winds will shift and be from the north, as the cold front moves across Texas.
Highs Monday will be in the lower 40s east to around 50 west.
112 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Dry high pressure will build in tonight and Monday behind a departing low pressure system.
Clouds will increase late tonight into tomorrow morning ahead of a cold front. A weak ridge of high pressure will move across the mid state today, then look for winds to pick up overnight as a strong cold front approaches Middle Tennessee from the west.
328 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Rain will taper off from west to east late this afternoon, as low pressure (Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor) continues to move northeast along the Southeast U.
The cold front has already moved into the western part of the forecast area this afternoon. The wrap around from the upper low will get into the forecast area later in the evening.
A warm front will bring light rain and higher elevation snow to the area today. Precipitation will end tonight as upper ridging builds into the area with some clearing. But, south winds with a warm front will remain strong and gusty today. Winds will decrease behind the front this evening while high pressure builds over the offshore waters.
122 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Low pressure will move away from the area today while high pressure briefly builds in.
1007 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Made a few adjustments to the first period POPs based on some of the higher res guidance suggestions.
As the low continues to propagate east, precipitation will refill the gaps. The biggest concern for winds though will be northwest winds on the backside of the low tonight through Monday night.
159 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 [Through 18Z Monday] The low level clouds are gradually dissipating and we expect all terminals to become VFR by 21z. Temperatures will rise into the low 80s in north Florida, with upper 70s to near 80 in SE Alabama and souther Georgia.
Clouds will increase late tonight into tomorrow morning ahead of a cold front. A fairly strong cold front is approaching and while CIGs will be VFR most of the period, lower clouds will move into the area once again early Mon.
A cold front will sweep across the area later today and tonight. There is the potential for significant hail (> 2" in diameter), damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes with thunderstorms that are expected to develop ahead of a cold front just south and east of the OKC metro area this evening. The 06Z simple water vapor imagery places the center of the 500MB long wave trough near western Wyoming. A strong (150kt) jet maxima, placed to the west of the trough axis, will prompt further intensification of this trough and leeside cyclogenesis across western Nebraska and Kansas today. The prefrontal trough will swing southeastward causing winds to shift to the NW-ly in Woodward by 21Z, OKC by 00-03Z, and Ada by 06Z. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front by by 00Z across east-central Oklahoma.
249 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Mild and dry conditions will persist through tonight lows in the low 50s. Temperatures will turn much cooler behind the front for the remainder of the week. Temperatures have warmed nicely across the area and will not fall off much tonight as influx of warmer air continues. Deepening low pressure will take shape to the southwest and track quickly NE our of Nebraska tonight and to near Lake Superior by Monday night as strong upper level trough continues to cut off and become negatively tilted. A pre frontal trough will quickly spread rainshowers into the area after 12Z, rapidly shifting east by 18-21Z. Strongly forced line of showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder will then accompany the strong cold front set to sweep in and clear the area by 6Z Tues.
A pressure ridge moving into the forecast area tonight will move off the coast Monday afternoon. Moisture will increase in the southeast to south flow on the backside of the ridge and ahead of an approaching cold front Monday afternoon and night.
252 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 A decent upper level low has been spinning its way out of Wyoming and into Nebraska/South Dakota today. This feature will continue to move eastward this evening, shoving a cold front through most of the forecast area by midnight. Tomorrow is expected to be cooler, especially in the morning, but this is not a particularly strong front, so afternoon temps will top out at just a degree or two below normal.
1143 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Winter weather has made its return for the high country with the main bulk of moisture trailing behind the cold front, currently positioned just south of the I-70 corridor. Low pressure deepening to our east will transition flow to the northwest this afternoon, which with residual moisture, will allow orographic showers to persist over the northern and central mountains through this evening. Mountain showers should taper off Monday afternoon as ridging builds in from the west.
Deeper low level moisture is currently just south of Interstate 20 corridor through central / eastern TX and will continue to drawn northward ahead of the advancing cold front. Data has remained consistent for several days in developing impressive wind fields across the region tonight including strong shear within the lowest levels. Trends within the past 24hrs have been for a more northward surge of moisture through eastern OK / western AR before the cold front passes. The event should remain rather progressive with the cold front clearing western AR well before sunrise Monday.
223 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 An upper level trough is currently moving over western South Dakota and western Nebraska with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. The cold front will move through the CWA late this evening/tonight as the upper trough progresses eastward over the Northern Plains.
Later this evening, MVFR cigs should begin to fill in across the area in advance of a cold front that'll be moving toward the area overnight. /ISSUED 1007 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ Made a few adjustments to the first period POPs based on some of the higher res guidance suggestions.
1007 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Cold trough over Wyoming will be exiting the region today with a somewhat moist northwest flow prevailing across northern Utah through Monday.
/issued 825 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ Latest RAP model shows weak high pressure building into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through tonight as a frontal boundary resides across the southern part of the state. Atlantic high pressure ridges across the Bahamas to western Cuba.
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 With the closed low heading into the north central Plains, an occluded/cold front will swing through our area this morning. We should get dry-slotted pretty quickly and our next shot for precip will come very late tonight as we get some light rain/sprinkle chances as we get wrap-around on the back side of the low.
A low pressure system will be moving from the Plains into the western Great Lakes region on Monday with a cold front moving through western Tennessee Monday afternoon.
As a result, high temperatures ranged from the low 70s in the southeast with more sun. A deep upper low over the High Plains this afternoon will continue to traverse the country, developing and intensifying the next storm system moving into the Midwest later tonight.
However, low to mid level moisture deepens and will allow precipitation to become intermittent as the low approaches over the region late this morning into the afternoon. This region is where the highest QPF amounts should be.
Expect the best chances for showers and storms this evening along the northern portions of SoFlo, especially around the Lake Okeechobee region, then quickly diminishing overnight as the low level jet and mid to upper level support are replaced by establishing high pressure.
A dry cold front is moving through the area today.
250 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Rain will taper off from west to east late this afternoon, as low pressure (Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor) continues to move northeast along the Southeast U.
324 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Rain will taper off from west to east late this afternoon, as low pressure (Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor) continues to move northeast along the Southeast U.
Overnight lows tonight will be mild in the low to mid 50s for most locations. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 77 56 69 43 / 0 50 100 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 76 56 68 43 / 0 10 100 50 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 75 54 68 41 / 0 20 100 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 76 55 67 39 / 10 10 100 80 10.