Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently a weak frontal boundary extends along the Interstate 44 corridor with dewpoints south of the boundary rising into the low to mid 70s. This environment will remain capped through much of the day with convective initiation focusing on the cold front and dryline boundaries.
Otherwise, temperatures across the area ranged from the middle/upper 60s in the thicker cloud cover across the south, to the lower/middle 70s along the I-90/94 corridors. Going into this evening, we will be watching that mid-level trough over MN push a weak cold front into the area. This is probably the extreme of all the models, but certainly bears watching for the possibility of strong to severe storms if this higher-end CAPE and Shear is realized. Scattered showers expected to continue into Saturday night as a strong mid-level trough/associated cyclonic flow rotates in from the Northern Plains.
but conditions looking quite dry in the lower levels along this front. The trough swings through eastern Utah and western Colorado throughout the day Saturday and ought to bring showers or at least virga along its WSW to ENE axis as it pushes southward.
This will result in lee cyclo- genesis/troughing along the front range, w/ moist southeasterly low level flow developing over the high plains. The upper-level trough axis is expected to swing across the area on Saturday.
Cold front at 11am was just clearing FRM/LJF/LXL and is expected to reach the I-35 corridor at around 5pm. With a fair amount of sun expected, we should take full advantage of the encroaching thermal ridge ahead of the front and reach the upper 70s across southern and eastern MN. This will lead to cooler air with limited moisture content.
331 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure over the region will shift southeast into Saturday.
230 PM PDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure builds over the region this weekend.
Temperatures will again rise into the middle and upper 80s as dewpoints surge into the lower and middle 70s.
Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats although an isolated tornado may be possible especially north of the Cheyenne ridge where local backing of the low level flow is more likely. This will result in lee cyclo- genesis/troughing along the front range, w/ moist southeasterly low level flow developing over the high plains. The upper-level trough axis is expected to swing across the area on Saturday.
331 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 The weak front that dipped into the area this morning has brought an uptick in moisture and modestly cooler temperatures to the area versus 24 hours, particularly across the northern zones. Even so, temperatures were still on the high side of average, varying from the middle and upper 80s north to lower to middle 90s south as of 1930Z. This will provide even warmer weather than today (though probably not as hot as yesterday) with highs likely well up into the 90s on the Caprock while triple digits return to the lower elevations.
338 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 Temperatures will continue to warm and moisture levels will increase over the weekend as a flat mid level ridge builds over the central Gulf Coast region during the period. Meanwhile, an upper low/trough will move out of south central Canada and into the upper Mississippi Valley late in the weekend and translate eastward across the Great Lakes region and into the northeast conus through the middle of the week.
Localized region of higher instability with trof may support isolated thunderstorms this evening in northeast part of forecast area. On Saturday, surface wave expected to develop, with cold developing cold front dropping into northern sections.
Models have approaching upper trough to get into the CWA Saturday afternoon. Models show a cold front with north- upslope winds behind it to move across the plains form 04Z to 06Z this evening. The NAM has plenty of low level moisture, Stratus, maybe even some fog for the plains after the cold front and upslope overnight. The high resolution models do not show anything significant for the CWA this evening/night. For temperatures, Saturday's highs will be 4-10 C cooler than this afternoon's highs. Upper level trough axis will slide southeast of the area Saturday night.
High pressure ridging across the Appalachians at this time will weaken as our next low pressure system moves out of the Central Plains. This low will be filling though as it moves into the Midwest this evening.
This will occur as a mid level ridge begins to build overhead and replace the zonal flow aloft. With the boundary slightly modifying dew points, expect mins to average about 3-5F warmer than last night, L-M60s inland, and M-U60s near the coast.
A warm front ran east from the low across central Illinois while a cold front went south into Missouri.
Upper level ridging over the Atlantic reached westward over Cuba to Mexico and the northwest Gulf coast while a weak short wave trough was above the northeast Gulf. The ridging dominates the area today with dry and warm southwest to west flow aloft. Fairly relaxed high pressure sprawled across most of the Gulf region. High pressure sprawling across the region will keep winds light with an afternoon breeze providing an onshore shift at slightly more modest speeds.
130 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure building across the Southeast states this afternoon will promote dry and pleasant conditions. Warmer temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Memorial Day. Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW tonight into Sat. Lows from the upr 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Partly to mostly cloudy Sun w/ highs mainly in the low/mid 80s, except 70s Eastern Shore and at the beaches.
Within this lengthy and emaciated boundary, a few light showers are being seen in the Lower Keys. Surface wise, a broad ridge axis is covering most of the Florida peninsula and our region, resulting in variable winds of 5 to 10 knots on our marine district.
A weak cutt-off low pressure system will continue spinning over east-central Idaho through the day today. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the Northern Rockies overnight, that will allow for a very nice Memorial Day Weekend.
KSJT will be near the northern edge of the low cloud field early Saturday morning.
353 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 Latest satellite imagery showed a general west southwest zonal pattern the the mid to upper levels and southwest flow in the low levels. A front with low pressure was observed across the Southern Plains which brought a tight pressure gradient for some breezy conditions across the delta region. With the extra low level moisture and anomalous low level temps expect highs to be from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. /17/ There will be a warm, muggy start to Saturday night as moisture continues to pool south of an approaching cold front. A deep upper trough associated with a closed low over Canada will continue to trek across the Plains Saturday night.
Finally, did cool highs Saturday a little, though it could be cooler, especially in western MN depending how quickly/thick clouds come in.
Dry, hot, and breezy conditions will persist Saturday with mid level ridging aloft and high pressure in control over the Gulf. Winds will become breezy later this morning into the afternoon as low pressure across the southern Plains interacts with Gulf high pressure. /issued 427 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb ridge overhead will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. The pressure gradient will strengthen today as low pressure across the southern Plains interacts with Gulf high pressure.
Also, tomorrow morning a warm front will lift across the southern CWA and set up near the I-70 corridor. MUCAPE values along and south of the warm front will range from 2500 to 5000+ J/Kg.
318 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
300 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 An upper low is sliding off to the northeast and leaving a cool northwest flow in it's wake. Weak ridging will move in but many chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are seen through the holiday weekend.
328 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 The low pressure system that brought all the rain to the North Country over the past 24 to 36 hours continues to move eastward.
Saturday will trend back towards seasonable temperatures as high pressure begins to build.
321 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure will move east, south of Nova Scotia tonight.
Expect mid-level ridging to begin increasing from the west by the end of the period.
Upper trough axis begins to approach the region with synoptic scale lift ahead of the trough. Then, by Saturday afternoon the trough axis begins moving across the area with cooling temps aloft.
An upper level low centered across central Manitoba and Saskatchewan will have an upper trough extending southwestward from eastern Montana into northern Nevada. Upper level low pressure continues to slowly wobble across southern Canada.
320 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 An upper level low pressure area spinning over the Rockies late this afternoon already spreading clouds and some rainfall into southwest SD.
As supported by the recent observed trend, did favor the higher edge of forecast guidance for wind with northwesterly gusts of 25-35 kts for most areas.
350 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 (Tonight and Saturday) An upper level ridge over eastern Mexico, South Texas and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Saturday. An upper trough will from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Temperatures will be hot again Saturday, as low-level thermal ridge remains strong across our area.
354 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 A surface trof of low pressure was moving into St. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring along an ahead of this trof. The surface trof will have moved east of the region shortly thereafter, and with the loss of diurnal heating, no additional precipitation is expected.
1039 AM PDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure builds in this weekend.
Later tonight, strong warm advection associated with an upper trough crossing the Northern Rockies will begin to initiate convection over the western High Plains. Saturday evening, a short wave moving down the northern stream flow on the southwest side of a large upper low centered in south central Canada, will phase with a short wave exiting the central plains.
Most areas will be dry with the exception of Slight chances for showers in northeast Lincoln County and the high peaks of the Sierra.
625 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
/Issued 429 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ A cold front, located across the northern portions of the Texas Panhandle, will move across the remainder of the forecast area this morning before becoming stationary. An upper trough, moving across the Intermountain Region and the central Rockies later today through Saturday, will approach the Panhandles by Saturday night.
Windy and cooler conditions are in store across northern Arizona today. Less wind and a warming trend are expected this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Aloft early this afternoon a ridge stretched from Mexico to the Upper Great Lakes while a low on the New England coast troughed down the eastern seaboard to the GA/FL line. High pressure centered in the northeast Gulf of Mexico sprawled across the remainder of the Gulf waters and up into the Deep South. Going into the weekend - The western upper ridge shifts eastward. from the central Gulf of Mexico to the lower Great Lakes. with the highest amounts confined to the far south. Clear to mostly clear skies Sat along the ridge aloft will permits the highs to be around or above normal.
Low pressure in southern Idaho will move east tonight as strong high pressure builds into the western states this weekend. Currently, water vapor imagery clearly shows an upper low situated in Southeastern Idaho. Otherwise, temperatures are running 5-10 degrees below normal this afternoon across northern and central Nevada due to the low's close proximity and widespread cumulus development. All precipitation will dissipate tonight as the upper low moves east overnight and a highly amplified upper ridge begins to push in from the Pacific. This will usher in a warming trend with mostly clear skies and winds on the calmer side through the holiday weekend as the ridge builds into the Great Basin.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night ):Mid level ridging will build to between 590 and 594 dam in the short term, supporting a further upward trend in heat. Heat will increase under the mid level ridge Saturday afternoon.
Once this system races into Indiana, it will drag a weak cold front southward into central Illinois this evening.
324 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure ridge will still be in control overnight, promoting a mostly clear sky with some light winds across the region. Moist, Gulf air will continue to stream into the area from the southwest as the aforementioned upper-ridge over the Gulf scoots off to the southeast. Given the highly unstable airmass (with MLCAPEs at around 2500-3000 J/kg), this feature(s), may be enough to overcome the inhibition that is also progged to be in place.
Quick update for observed trends through 13 UTC and to increase winds towards the higher edge of forecast guidance with peak gusts already between 24-28kts being observed. Current surface analysis places low pressure along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border with frontal boundary dipping down near the Red River Valley, while high pressure stretches down just to the east of the continental divide. aforementioned upper low tends to loiter in place keeping cyclonic flow over our area, which may result in some showers developing primarily over northern locations this afternoon into early this evening. Saturday will bring the greatest chances for precipitation to our area as the upper low meanders through Manitoba and a notable short wave swings through the northern plains.
Early this morning, a weak ridge stretched from the western Gulf Coast up through the Upper Midwest. However, the weak ridge is losing ground to clouds filtering in ahead of the next system moving into the region. For today, generally the cooler temps associated with clouds between the clouds streaming in from the west and the cu that will develop in any clear spots. Last couple synoptic runs of the models tracking significantly further south with the low itself. keeping much of the warm frontal feature out of Central IL. Significant MUCAPE across the region invof and behind the lifting warm front throughout the day.
409 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 Despite the extensive afternoon cloud cover many regional temperatures have again reached the lower 90s. Upper ridging planted across region pretty much guarantees that the majority of this holiday weekend will be dry.
350 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 A period of showers and thunderstorms is expected mainly this evening across the area along and north of a warm front and area of low pressure area tracking east.
234 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 A couple of upper level troughs will be crossing the region this weekend. A cold front from the west will cross the local area Memorial Day. Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW through Sat morning.
/issued 1025 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ A weak cold front is making its way farther south into the forecast area than previously expected. The thick mountain-induced cirrus may help swing things toward the lower speeds, but if that mechanism shuts off by early afternoon, I would expect wind speeds to jump closer to forecast levels.
VFR expected next 24-hours at all terminals as an upper-level trough slowly exits the area to the east and an upper-level high pressure ridge builds-in from the west.
105 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure will pass to the south through tonight.
A warmup is on the way for the afternoon period as temperatures reach the lower to mid 90s across much locations and up to 104 degrees across the southwest counties. Dewpoint temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.
Several of the high resolution models continue to show the potential for a few afternoon showers, mainly north of highway 2.
Temperatures over the western areas have been slow to rise today, but clearing skies should bring temperatures up enough with the high dew points to bring heat indices/apparent temperatures to near or above advisory levels over the advisory area. Lows may be a degree or so cooler in some spots since the winds will not stay up, although another low level jet will be in place over the eastern portions of the forecast area. As a result, we will see temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the High Plains this afternoon. The cold front continues to shift southward this morning with gusty northerly winds and slightly cooler air behind the boundary. A weak trough will move southeast across Oklahoma today with resulting northwest winds; however, surface moisture will increase substantially across southeast Oklahoma where isolated thunderstorms may form very late this afternoon or evening before dissipating with sunset.
The next upper level disturbance will move through the area Saturday which will in turn help push a cold front through the area.
A strong low level jet will begin to impinge on the region as several short wave troughs move through the upper level southwesterly flow and across the Ozarks.
217 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Hydro A narrow high pressure ridge crosses the area into the mid day hours resulting in partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 70s inland.
The next weak trough moving out of the Rockies should generate an MCS across the western High Plains, which roll eastward tonight toward our area. Cooler temps in the upper 60s/upper 70s on Saturday.
/issued 345 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ This mornings surface map indicates the area remains between high pressure over Florida and low pressure over the high plains states. Will continue to see southerly winds continue to bring in more moisture, mainly in the lower levels.
A cold front currently extends from southeast Iowa through southwest Missouri and into northwest Texas. On Saturday, low pressure will develop along the front over western Kansas and move east. This low will push the front north some but will remain close enough that some thunderstorms that form could make their way into the forecast area. By Saturday night, the cold front will start to move toward the region so there will be a better chance of thunderstorms.
458 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Advancing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure over the south central United States will build southeastward down the Florida peninsula overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be centered over Florida tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight.
With stout troughing in place over the eastern half of the United States, our generally dry, northwest flow regime will hold steady into week ahead.
Weak high pressure will then build into the area later tonight into Sunday.
Any increase in wind speeds may result in a temperature rise in the cooler locations due to turbulent mixing. With stout troughing in place over the eastern half of the United States, our generally dry, northwest flow regime will hold steady into week ahead.
713 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A low pressure system rotates into the area tonight with windy conditions and mountain snow showers.
406 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE Strong ridge of high pressure aloft centered over CA and NV with northwest flow over NM. Winds will remain light except along a few back door cold fronts where some brief breezes are possible. The cold fronts will be rather weak, and will only provide a few degrees of cooling in most instances.
915 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 A strong upper level trough and surface cold front will cross the region late this evening and into the overnight hours.
650 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure off Virginia coast will continue to lift northeast tonight.
Snow shower chances will thus continue in that cold flow with the better, albeit still limited accumulation chance remaining over areas north of I 80 as well as in the highest elevations of WV and MD.
High pressure will continue to spread into the area tonight, allowing winds to calm and eventually decouple. Expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s across much of the area. Also, with dewpoint trends warmer than expected, have added patchy freezing fog to the area where snow cover was greatest.
Highs will be considerably warmer than today, with afternoon readings reaching the middle 40s to middle 50s.
Anomalous mid/upper level trough dominates the ern U. Latest temps are in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. A weak pressure gradient along the coastal areas will keep those locations stirred up to prevent full decoupling and keep them above freezing tonight.
430 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS and a deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country. Temps have risen into the 50s across most plains locations with some temperatures east of the Black Hills hitting the low 60s. Warmer air moving in will bring temps into the 50s to low 60s across a wider area tomorrow under mostly sunny skies.
1031 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure off Virginia coast will continue to lift northeast tonight.
A broad upper level trough remains across the the eastern us with a ridge to the west. Lowered tonight's temperatures a couple degrees cooler than guidance, especially in the normal cold spots and low elevations.
Upper level trough currently swinging through the area.
Models keep a substantial upper ridge over western North America tonight and Sun day with weak northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA. The low level winds should adhere to normal drainage patterns overnight with the exception of the eastern half of the plains where northwesterly winds will continue. Thickness fields point to Sunday's high temperatures to be a tad warmer then this afternoon's highs. The strong upper ridge over the western U. Temperatures will also remain warmer than seasonal normals as the flow aloft will be predominantly out of the northwest.
Might be a bit cooler than previously forecasted for low temperatures overnight tonight. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The weather this weekend will be dominated by strong high pressure embedded within the strong ridge anchored over the mountain west.
High pressure at the surface and dry, subsiding NW flow aloft will lead to clear skies and light winds overnight. Mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures, not a bad start to the weekend at all. Like this morning, there may be some patchy frost here or there in the cooler, more sheltered locations.
828 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 No change from previous forecast this evening with strong surface to upper level ridge centered over the interior western US maintaining dry and stable conditions with mainly clear skies. Meanwhile, breezy W/SW winds along the east slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains will maintain relatively mild temperatures overnight, in some cases warmer than average expected afternoon temperatures this time of year. Meanwhile, the valleys of Southwest Montana will be strongly influenced by temperature inversions for cold overnight temperatures with areas of freezing fog. An upper level ridge continues to reside over the Western US, providing generally low-impact aviation conditions.
Warming trend will continue on Sunday as highs rebound back into the lower 60s over much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with westerly winds.