Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
503 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 An approaching cold front will return showers and storms to the region for Sunday. The region being in the warm sector and cloud cover over the area will make for warmer temps through dawn and into the coming day with temps being a degree or two above normal. High pressure and cooler temperatures will then settle in for Monday night with temps on average being around 5 degrees below normal. Models continue to indicate general broad troughing persisting across much of the eastern CONUS through the period, as a ridge builds across the western/central CONUS.
551 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Like that last of several days, another hot day in store as surface ridging shifts off to the east and a southerly flow returns to the region. Highs will again be in the lower to mid 90s. Otherwise, the upper level ridge over the western CONUS begins to build slowly eastward and once again highs will climb well into the 90s. With the low level moisture return, it will be a little more humid with dew points in the mid 60s.
This high will keep the sky clear through day as it slides southeast. This warm front will lift into far southern North Dakota by this evening, bringing with it slight chance to chance PoPs across the far south central and southern James River Valley.
With low pressure centered to the east of the Florida Space Coast, there will be continued large scale forcing for ascent through this afternoon. From synopsis, low pressure centered off of the east coast of Florida will slide westward towards the Gulf of Mexico over the day or two.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday Night/ Mid level ridging will remain in place through Monday keeping all of North and Central Texas hot and dry.
/issued 314 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Mid-level high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
458 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas. For today, weak warm front lifts northward.
504 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Scattered showers are possible early this morning ahead of a cold front. The early half of this coming week will dry as high pressure slides overhead, only to be interrupted later in the week by more chances of showers and thunderstorms. A few scattered showers are moving across the Northern Tier and the Laurel Highlands this morning ahead of the surface cold front currently residing over the Lower Great Lakes. We will be in a warm and humid airmass today ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints are expected to near or surpass 70 in the SE, with temperatures approaching 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valleys.
Clear sky this time allows radiational cooling to reflect the lower humidity air mass in place and help low temperatures drop to near the 60 degree mark outside of metro Detroit.
Therefore, we will maintain the low PoPs across our southwest counties this morning. As such, we have trended a bit cooler and will indicate readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s today. Highs on Monday should be a tad bit warmer.
High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the Ohio Valley through the first part of the work week. Otherwise, a weakening cold front will continue to move slowly south across our area through this afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with dewpoints into the lower 70s. Low temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly below normal thanks to the lower theta-e air over the region.
The bigger question will be instability, but assuming we get at least some sunshine, highs in the low to mid 90s and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg will be possible. A fairly low amplitude upper ridge axis extends from WY, through central MT and into Alb/Sask early in the period. This results in NW flow aloft over the northern tier, setting up a series of ridge ridge riders and associated storm activity early in the period.
(Today through Monday afternoon) A broad upper ridge is over the southern half of the country with an upper low over southern Arizona. The upper ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains on Monday with rain and storm chances mostly remaining confined to Southeast New Mexico and Culberson County.
Mid-level temperatures will also be cooler over the northeast corner of the CWA as well. A weak cold front should progress southeastward across the region on Monday, bringing a low chance for thunderstorms, mainly over northeastern SD and western MN. A large upper level high pressure area is still on track to build over the central U.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 105F. Now for Monday a weak cold front will approach the area bringing more numerous showers and thunderstorms with it. Temperatures will also be slightly cooler into the upper 80s and low 90s.
533 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Scattered showers are possible early this morning ahead of a cold front. The early half of this coming week will dry as high pressure slides overhead, only to be interrupted later in the week by more chances of showers and thunderstorms. A few scattered showers are moving across the Northern Tier and the Laurel Highlands this morning ahead of the surface cold front currently residing over the Lower Great Lakes. We will be in a warm and humid airmass today ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints are expected to near or surpass 70 in the SE, with temperatures approaching 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valleys.
Afternoon winds will increase with the wave leading to increased fire concerns for the low lands along the Cascades for the afternoon and early evening. The change in direction will bring monsoonal moisture from the South and possible isolated sprinkles over Southeast WA and the Lower ID Panhandle.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 91 74 91 / 40 30 80 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 90 73 91 / 40 30 90 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 73 89 71 90 / 40 40 80 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 71 85 68 90 / 30 50 80 20 40.
By this evening, the aforementioned area of low pressure will slowly lift northwest towards the FL/GA state line, allowing our winds to back to the southeast.
Deep monsoon moisture moving into the region will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the district through Monday, especially over the higher elevations of the Sierra.
740 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wnw mid/upper level flow through the northern Great Lakes between a trough over Hudson Bay and a broad ridge from the Great Basin to the Southern Plains. At the surface, westerly winds prevailed ahead of a ridge building into the region from the Northern Plains. Much drier air has also pushed into the area with dewpoints into the lower 50s.
High temperatures will range from the 90s to near 100 in the Troy and Libby areas of northwest Montana to the lower 100s in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho including Orofino, Lowell, Riggins and Pittsburg Landing.
721 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Scattered showers are possible early this morning ahead of a cold front. The early half of this coming week will dry as high pressure slides overhead, only to be interrupted later in the week by more chances of showers and thunderstorms. We will be in a warm and humid airmass today ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints are expected to near or surpass 70 in the SE, with temperatures approaching 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valleys.
550 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wnw mid/upper level flow through the northern Great Lakes between a trough over Hudson Bay and a broad ridge from the Great Basin to the Southern Plains. At the surface, westerly winds prevailed ahead of a ridge building into the region from the Northern Plains. Much drier air has also pushed into the area with dewpoints into the lower 50s.
Dewpoints are now in the low to mid 70s. Weak and slow-moving cold front currently extends from north of Detroit to Chicago to just south of the Quad Cities, with convection south of the front now mostly weakening over the I-70 corridor across Illinois and Indiana. At the surface, the period will likely begin with a W-E oriented frontal boundary draped across the forecast area while high pressure builds in to the north over the mid MS Valley and northern OH Valley.
713 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Scattered showers are possible early this morning ahead of a cold front. The early half of this coming week will dry as high pressure slides overhead, only to be interrupted later in the week by more chances of showers and thunderstorms. A few scattered showers are moving across the Northern Tier and the Laurel Highlands this morning ahead of the surface cold front currently residing over the Lower Great Lakes. We will be in a warm and humid airmass today ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints are expected to near or surpass 70 in the SE, with temperatures approaching 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valleys.
As it does so, the system is expected to open up into a trough.
405 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Like that last of several days, another hot day in store as surface ridging shifts off to the east and a southerly flow returns to the region. Highs will again be in the lower to mid 90s. Otherwise, the upper level ridge over the western CONUS begins to build slowly eastward and once again highs will climb well into the 90s. With the low level moisture return, it will be a little more humid with dew points in the mid 60s.
725 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Scattered showers are possible early this morning ahead of a cold front. The early half of this coming week will dry as high pressure slides overhead, only to be interrupted later in the week by more chances of showers and thunderstorms. We will be in a warm and humid airmass today ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints are expected to near or surpass 70 in the SE, with temperatures approaching 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valleys.
633 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain anchored across the region today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday or even a degree or two warmer.
A negatively tilted trough continues to work into portions of the northeastern CONUS and eastern Canadian provinces. Situated just south of the area over the southern Plains is a dome of high pressure that continues to build and eventually dominate the weather pattern across the forecast area into this upcoming week bringing a return to dangerous heat across the region. As conditions trend dry going through the day on Monday, the heat will be allowed to return with clearing conditions, plenty of insolation and building heights over the area with the upper ridge expanding.
We expect a brief break from the heat on Monday with highs remaining near normal or in the low 90s for most areas. The mid/upper ridge will build back into the Central Plains states on Tue bringing a return to dry and hot conditions with some locations approaching the century mark. Hot and dry weather will prevail through much if not all of the period as the mid/upper ridge builds into the region and persists bringing a prolonged period of 100+ degree temperatures to the area. As the previous shift noted some of the guidance suggests the ridge may break down again over the weekend but confidence in this scenario remains fairly low at this time.
849 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 An approaching cold front will return showers and storms to the region for Sunday. Scattered convection is expected along and ahead of a cold front crossing the region today. High pressure and cooler temperatures will then settle in for Monday night with temps on average being around 5 degrees below normal. Models continue to indicate general broad troughing persisting across much of the eastern CONUS through the period, as a ridge builds across the western/central CONUS.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions across the region through the week. The ridge will build more solidly over the region late in the week with warmer temperatures expected.
Low pressure in the low levels off the Ne Fl coast today continues to encounter dry air and wind shear. Very dry air aloft across the area today will limit shower activity through this evening with rain chances increasing late tonight near the coast as the low moves closer.
312 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A welcome return to sunny and dry weather this afternoon as the easternmost edge of high pressure over the Midwest settles into SE MI. High pressure drifts southeast into the Ohio Valley Monday maintaining a persistence forecast for lower MI.
Upper pattern sees the ridge retreating a bit to the west putting the state into a weak northwest flow regime. The CWA will be situated between a strong ridge to the west and a longwave trough to the east. The ridge will advance eastward for a few days and then retreat while the trough shifts westward along the eastern seaboard.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night):Midlevel ridging remains in control providing subsidence and dry air aloft this afternoon.
1142 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 GOES-17 WV imagery review showed that upper low that was over NM at this time yesterday moved into eastern AZ, pushing the active moisture plume across western AZ. Latest high-resolution models show widely scattered convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY, with isolated coverage across along the I-25 corridor Douglas to Cheyenne and I-80 Cheyenne to Sidney, mainly during the 3 PM to 6 PM period. Monday will be dry with the ridge centered overhead. High temperatures will be 2-3 degrees warmer with lower 90s to lower 100s.
1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Surface map early this morning showing high pressure build into the region from the Northern Plains with clear skies across the forecast area. For today, high pressure will continue building overhead providing mostly sunny skies with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s to the lower 90s.
138 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A cold front is making its way south across the area this afternoon.
241 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A disturbance within the subtropical plume rotating around upper level high pressure, kicked off heavy thunderstorms early this morning across portions of southwest into south central NE. Rain cooled air has rushed north and west from the thunderstorm complex and has kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than expected. The higher theta-e air has been pushed west into portions of the Panhandle and west central NE.
Smoke will continue to stick around through the day, but as we shift to upper- level ridging, will be tapering off the smoke into late Monday. The hot and dry conditions continue into Monday, as the upper- level ridge continues to build over the region.
Monday will see the center of the upper level ridge slowly transition eastward and resettle over the CWA.
High pressure and cooler temperatures will then settle in for Monday night with temps on average being around 5 degrees below normal.
Winds should pick up slightly and help mix the low levels a bit further, but dewpoints look to stay in the low to mid 70s, and with highs in the 90s, heat index values will be in the low 100s for most of the western 2/3 of the mid state.
The main difference is how fast the low level jet decreases. High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s.
Dry and hot conditions are expected through Monday as high pressure and a drier air mass remains the dominant features across SE Texas. Expect low temperatures in the low to mid 70s along areas north of I- 10 and in the mid 70s to 80 degrees along areas south of I-10.
Still plenty hot despite cold frontal passage, but an otherwise dry day across central Illinois. Afternoon highs will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s beneath a sweltering ridge of high pressure. Both the GEFS and EC ENS keep a 594mb ridge anchored over the central CONUS through mid-week. Afternoon highs will get progressively warmer each day for central Illinois as the upper ridge expands.
Some storms late this afternoon into early evening may move off the higher terrain into portions of the high plains in SE WY. High pressure continues to build over the region as upper level low near the Four Corners continues to spin moisture northward aiding in our shower and thunderstorm potential today. Area haze on webcams from distant fires across the west continue to warrant inclusion in the forecast grids with high pressure building centered on us Monday should keep skies hazy and sunrise/sunset picturesque. Highs Monday a few degrees warmer into the upper 80s and middle 90s for SE WY and middle 90s to low 100s for the NE Panhandle. Overall ridging pattern persists into midweek as midlevel trough digs into the west coast and slowly erodes the ridge as it drifts eastward.
1253 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Water vapor shows large high stretching from the southwestern through south central CONUS, with ridge amplifying into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, warm front has lifted to near I-90 across northeast WY and western SD. As upper ridge expands north and east through mid week, temps will continue to warm the next few days.
Scattered showers are continuing, around the area of low pressure, across southern Yavapai, Coconino, Navajo and Apache Counties and northern Gila County. Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist in central Arizona early this morning as an upper low has moved into south-central Arizona. The upper low will shift westward over southern Arizona through the daylight and evening hours today. The trough axis is helping to favor areas west of a line from the Grand Canyon to Flagstaff to the White Mountains for the heaviest and most widespread coverage of rainfall this afternoon. As the upper low finally moves into far southern California by tonight, the greatest area of forcing to sustain overnight showers will also exit the forecast area.
128 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wnw mid/upper level flow through the northern Great Lakes between a trough over Hudson Bay and a broad ridge from the Great Basin to the Southern Plains. At the surface, westerly winds prevailed ahead of a ridge building into the region from the Northern Plains. Much drier air has also pushed into the area with dewpoints into the lower 50s.
As we head through the rest of today, expect this drier air to continue to limit overall rainfall coverage, but then moisture returns for the overnight period, leading to a chance for showers as the low moves over the state.
1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Like that last of several days, another hot day in store as surface ridging shifts off to the east and a southerly flow returns to the region. Highs will again be in the lower to mid 90s. Otherwise, the upper level ridge over the western CONUS begins to build slowly eastward and once again highs will climb well into the 90s. With the low level moisture return, it will be a little more humid with dew points in the mid 60s.
Good mixing will allow for wind gusts to 30 knots to surface coupled with RH in the low 20s to upper teens and dry fuels will give conditions favorable for rapid fire growth.
(This evening through Monday) A hot and dry forecast continues into Monday with upper level high pressure firmly in control. A large area of upper level ridging will remain in place over Texas and much of the CONUS from Monday night through the rest of the week.
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A weak cold front will cross the Commonwealth tonight, with isolated showers and thunderstorms into the early evening, mainly well south of I-80. The start of the work week looks rain free and seasonably warm, with weak high pressure the main controlling feature. Later tonight, the actual cold frontal boundary mentioned above will limp its way across the Commonwealth, with any residual showers/thunderstorms on the decline by that time. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s in the northern mountains to the lower 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains, to the low-mid 60s in the Susquehanna Valley.
Hennig (Today through Monday afternoon) A broad upper ridge is over the southern half of the country with an upper low over southern Arizona. The upper ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains on Monday with rain and storm chances mostly remaining confined to Southeast New Mexico and Culberson County.
Zonal flow aloft will continue again today, though it will be even less than yesterday with high pressure continuing to build in slightly from the south.
Another hot and dry day is unfolding across South Texas with an upper level ridge in control. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 90s across the region with heat indices hovering around the 105-109 range. Our upper air pattern begins to change tomorrow as the upper level ridge retreats to the northwest as an inverted trough takes shape across the Western Gulf. Models hint at some H5 energy rotating around the periphery of this trough but looks to remain across Deep South Texas at this time. High temps tomorrow will top out in the low 90s along the coast to around 103 across the Brush Country.
Broad ridging pattern continues over the western United States, with low amplitude northwest flow over the Northern Plains. The threat on the North Dakota side will depend on the northern extent of the low level jet, with best chances for now kept to the south.
The expansive mid to upper level ridge that has been over the area slowly starts to retreat to north and west of the forecast area on Monday, leaving the region in an area of upper level weakness. Highs on Monday continue to trend in the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices in the 102-107 degree range.
On the larger scale, we have an area of low pressure in western SD, with a weak boundary extending east-northeast into northeast SD. Nose of the jet focused near/northeast of the Buffalo Ridge, and will carry higher pops for the overnight period in this area. DCAPE values not quite as strong with this activity, but still quite a deep layer of dry sub-cloud air to accelerate the low level jet to the surface, so an isolated strong wind threat will continue. Could still be a few weak boundaries lingering from overnight convection, but diurnal mixing should reestablish a primarily southerly flow across the forecast area, with consensus showing the main warm front again from central SD into central MN by late Monday into Monday night.
212 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 High Pressure ridge is once again firmly entrenched over the area.
(This evening through Monday) A hot and dry forecast continues into Monday with upper level high pressure firmly in control.
VFR conditions and moderate southeasterly winds will prevail through the remainder of the day and much of the evening with midlevel high pressure providing subsidence and dry air aloft. /issued 314 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Mid-level high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A few isolated to scattered storms early this morning as a weak cold front sags slowly southward. Behind this front, slightly cooler temperatures and a drier airmass will make make for a somewhat less oppressive day across northern Missouri and northeast Kansas. Monday looks fairly similar to today in that temperatures and dewpoints will be several degrees cooler, and there is the potential for some storms.
Winds very light/calm on obs across the area this afternoon enhancing the impacts of the high heat index values across the region.
310 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 A weak cold front will cross the Commonwealth tonight, with isolated showers and thunderstorms into the early evening, mainly well south of I-80. The start of the work week looks rain free and seasonably warm, with weak high pressure the main controlling feature. Later tonight, the actual cold frontal boundary mentioned above will limp its way across the Commonwealth, with any residual showers/thunderstorms on the decline by that time. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s in the northern mountains to the lower 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from the mid 50s in the northern mountains, to the low-mid 60s in the Susquehanna Valley.