Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low seen on water vapor imagery is forecast to slowly move west, but not that fast and it could still be a player mainly out to the west into early Thursday evening. However, the higher/better moisture begins to move into Mexico, and that can limit the rainfall observed over the CWA. For overnight temperatures, am not going to go too far from persistence, but will go a tad warmer most areas tonight then a tad cooler Thursday night based on 2 meter forecast temperatures and moisture profiles (less moisture Thursday night).
1129 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Models are kind of all over the place this afternoon so will trend towards a solution with the stalled out frontal boundary over the northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska as it drifts to the north tonight and an upper level wave rounds the ridge to the west. Boundary begins to lift north after 6z and upper closed low over KLBF around 12z with precipitation moving east into south central Nebraska.
This is caused by a diurnally driven thermal low to our west over the High Plains, which causes the winds to back slightly to south-southeast by late afternoon or early evening before slowly veering toward morning. /issued 329 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ Seasonably hot weather is expected to continue the next few days as an elongated mid-level ridge remains in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front across Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
The upper level ridge pattern that has been in place over the last few days will remain in place tomorrow, resulting in a weather day typical of the previous few. However, high pressure building into the surface from the east will result in a shift of higher PoPs due to afternoon convection from the eastern portions of the region to the central and western portions.
430 AM MST Thu Nov 9 2017 Late night GOES-R water vapor loop depicted a deep upper trough over the Upper Midwest, an upstream ridge axis from the Four Corners to western MT, and an intense upper low spinning west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A cold front was located along the leading edge of lower clouds from central WY to central NE. The cold front will move southeast across the plains and stall along the Laramie Range this morning. Will see an increase in clouds, a wind shift to the northeast, and cooler temperatures behind the front. High temperatures east of the Laramie Range this afternoon will be 5-10 degrees cooler. Flow aloft backs to west-southwest as Pacific trough moves into the Northwest Friday. The next Pacific cold front will move into western WY by Friday evening.
Drier air will spread across the region tonight and Friday as strong high pressure builds into the southeast U. a vigorous trough will be exiting the far northern tip of New England. A quick glance at the sfc reveals a cyclone just north of ND while an extensive area of Canadian high pressure /centered near Lake Huron/ dominates east of the Rockies.
412 AM MST Thu Nov 9 2017 Still a small area of dense fog over the lower Arkansas Valley around La Junta early this morning, though overall weak low level w- nw flow has lead to dissipation of most low clouds and fog along the I-25 corridor.
552 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2017 Surface cold front associated with the upper trof moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today will drop south across central and southern Kansas. Stratus development is expected across western Kansas in the low level warm advection regime, though some of the low clouds may develop east into parts of central Kansas during Friday.
It'll be a chilly start with several locations below freezing. Models have been consistent in dropping a weak backdoor cold front into the area on Friday which will aid in knocking afternoon highs down just a few degrees across parts of far northeast OK into northwest AR.
/issued 348 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017/ A 500mb ridge that was to the west, has weakened as a short wave is making its way across the deep south. A developing low off the Carolina coast, just ahead of the short wave, will bring a cold front into north Florida today. High pressure will build to the north, causing the pressure gradient to increase over the area, resulting in breezy conditions for the Atlantic coastal areas.
The cold front of this storm sweeps through Fri, with precipitation ending Fri night.
Overnight easterly flow and temperatures above freezing yesterday has allowed areas of stratus and fog to form with dense fog noted at Billings airport. At the upper levels a ridge is moving across the region which is followed by southwest flow aloft which is inducing pressure falls west of the divide. Strength of the mechanisms at the low levels to maintain fog is impressive given that the southwesterly aloft aloft is bringing a disruption to a stratus deck around 1500 feet but the low level fog and stratus is expanding westward from Billings into Laurel. Temperatures will have the best chance to warm along the midslopes of the foothills but heating may be limited in the central zones as the low clouds and fog persist into early afternoon so have lowered temperatures in most locations.
A closed upper level low remains centered off the northwest coast this morning, generating southwest flow aloft over our CWA. But with stable air and mid level southwest winds downsloping from the higher terrain, the Idaho Snake River Valley remains shadowed. Precipitation will continue tonight and become more widespread on Friday as the main low moves inland as an open trough and weakens. Snow levels will range from 5000 feet north to 7000 feet south through tonight, lowering by about 500 feet on Friday as cooler air arrives with the trough. Rain amounts will be relatively light in the valleys, but new snow accumulations of 8 inches or more are possible in the higher mountains by Friday night.
/Today through Tonight/ As of 3 AM this morning, the cold front was located from just north of Waterloo to just north of Ames to Denison. I did increase clouds through mid morning and we may have them longer but right now everything is pointing to the high pushing in and some very low dewpoints coming down. Highs today should not be more than a few degrees from the 12Z readings and would be cooler if clouds hung around. Tonight the high begins to shift and winds aloft go westerly while at the surface they shift around to the east and eventually southeast.
Light and variable winds this morning underneath weak ridge axis will turn onshore (E/NE) in a sea breeze this afternoon along the coast. A weak cool front analyzed across north FL from Jacksonville to Perry will not make much southward progress today; not until a short wave trough passes offshore the GA/SC coast this evening. Light and variable winds beneath high pressure ridge axis will produce the last good boating day for quite a while.
The high temperature forecast for today ranges from the low teens north, to the upper 20s south. The low mentioned above will swing through far northeast North Dakota by Friday night. An upper level ridge looks to build in by the end of the weekend bringing a warming trend and temperatures near or even above normal for many.
Clouds are leaving the area at this time, as an upper low travels by to our south. The arctic high pressure briefly glancing us Friday will shift into the northeast U.
surface temperatures across northeast ND and the northern RRV should continue temperatures to cool into the low sub-zero range. Fair skies and overall light winds still still allow for substantial radiative cooling so that overnight lows will likely settle into the low single digits south and low sub-zero range in the north.
Early morning temperatures range from near 40 across Southeast Oklahoma to the upper forties across Deep East Texas and the lower parts of Northwest and North Central Louisiana. Drier air associated with the high pressure on the surface and aloft will allow for more sunshine returning during the day with daytime highs warming to near 60 to the middle sixties. For parts of Southeast Oklahoma and parts of Southwest Arkansas could see some readings near freezing late tonight near Battiest and around De Queen. By late Friday, zonal flow aloft will be returning as the upper ridge flattens and a re-enforcing cold front back doors across the forecast area, but it will be a dry system.
951 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather today. A strong cold front will increase precipitation tonight and Friday and bring well below average temperatures into the weekend. Still think that any light showers will remain to the south and east, but will watch to make sure east-facing ridges don't get wet. Higher clouds are in place across the north in advance of the cold front arriving tonight. A strong cold front that will quickly cross this evening. Further south, more scattered activity is expected, even along the ridges where moisture remains limited. A dry Friday night follows as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
537 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2017 High pressure ridge axis over the region this morning, with little in the way of cloud cover for most of the night. Temperatures have dropped below freezing across Central IL, providing a chilly start to the day. A dry cold front moving through the region today will bring down a shot of cP air into the Midwest and result in a very cold night.
Through the short term, the trough over the Northern Plains will rotate through the Great Lakes toward Nova Scotia with ridging shifting into the Plains through Friday morning.
A warm front will continue to move into central Idaho and western Montana this morning, spreading precipitation over the area. As this warmer air in the mid levels surges northward, this poses a problem for northwest Montana valleys, where inversions have maintained surface temperatures several degrees below freezing. Therefore, as precipitation increases through the morning, a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain is anticipated. The higher terrain will primarily see snow, with mountain passes such as Lookout, Lolo and Marias remaining slick at times into this evening. A low pressure system will then move into central Idaho and southwest Montana Friday into Friday night.
759 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 A weak area of low pressure will pass by harmlessly to the south of Pennsylvania today.
Toward the Missouri border, including KBPK, at or below freezing temperatures will yield freezing fog.
At the surface, we will see pressure heights increasing as high pressure builds across the eastern half of Conus as a ridge center moves across the Upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes.
Moore Still a small area of dense fog over the lower Arkansas Valley around La Junta early this morning, though overall weak low level w- nw flow has lead to dissipation of most low clouds and fog along the I-25 corridor.
Temperatures will remain warmer than average each day.
A dry cold front drops in tonight, and may bring a few clouds, especially to eastern areas. However, the main effect of the frontal passage will be to bring a shot of cooler air into the Mid-State, with highs on Friday expected to range from the middle to upper 40s along the Cumberland Plateau, to middle 50s southwest.
638 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 Clouds will continue to increase this morning as an upper level system and strong cold front approach. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 20s. A strong cold front will sweep across the area today.
The high pressure moves east overnight, with breezy south to southeast winds developing. The eastern CWA will be under the influence of the high the longest, which will keep winds light until later at night, so still plenty of time for temps to drop. Dropped tonight's lows into the single digits over the eastern CWA, with warmer teens over western areas where breezy winds are expected all night. Expecting warmer temps to move back in on Friday, although southerly winds will remain breezy and gusty, especially for eastern areas.
Latest water vapor imagery shows models have a pretty good handle on the movement/position of the upper low swinging toward the area from northwestern Mississippi. The coldest/driest air over the CONUS will remain centered over the Upper Midwest and southern Canada behind a second stronger cold front that will not push through the area until late tonight. Despite abundant sunshine on Friday, highs should only reach the lower to mid 50s in most locations on Friday.
947 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 Hydro A wave of low pressure will develop on a cold front located in Wisconsin this morning. As the low pressure system tracks to the east of the area later today. The snow showers will push westward offshore Friday morning as an area of high pressure moves in. With surface temperatures above freezing. The wave of low pressure goes by this afternoon with strong cold air advection developing this afternoon. It looks like temperatures will fall below freezing from NW to SE through the afternoon and evening.
Today's forecast is brought to you by the letters "B" and "R", as in BRRRR! Definitely a big change across the area ongoing early this morning, with a strong cold front marching across the CWA as of 08Z. As expected, an axis of transient frontogenetic forcing did deliver some light precipitation mainly near/north of I-90, though a slightly warmer boundary layer brought a bit more rain than snow to many areas, with spots north of I-94 seeing a bit more snow per obs.
The upper low across MS will shift southeast to northeast GA by the end of the day. Cold front will continue drifting southward this morning with the supporting upper low swinging through south central Alabama midday and central Georgia later this afternoon. Already an increase in showers developing across AL/MS and trend will continue ahead of the upper low. High temperatures will be cooler with northern extent through SE AL/SW GA with expected cloud cover and higher chance for rain. Across the Big Bend, dewpoints will remain in the 60s today with highs in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure over northeast Montana early this morning. Some fog possible with the low clouds along with very light flurries for this morning. High pressure moves east today, with jet pushing across the Pacific Northwest. These increasing winds should also help mix out the inversion and dissipate the low clouds. This will bring a warm front through eastern Montana, with the potential for a few snow showers mainly near the Canadian border. As the low moves into southern Saskatchewan during the day, a cold front will sag southward across the border, maintaining the potential for snow showers. Weak high pressure slides into eastern Montana Friday night as the Saskatchewan low moves east.
There is a mention of freezing drizzle across Hayes and Frontier counties but this would appear to be speculative given the mixed layer and shallow moisture shown by the NAM model.
With temperatures at or below freezing, decided to mention patchy freezing fog until the fog lifts around mid to late morning.
Have trended aoa the warmer guidance for the srn half of the CWA, where the cdfnt shud arrive by around Noon. Have trended a few degrees above the cooler guidance for areas north of the front to account for more insolation.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): In the wake of the fropa that occurred yesterday across the RGV, a series of 500 mb troughs will dig southeast across southern and eastern TX today and Fri. The passage of these troughs will combine with persistent surface coastal troffing near the RGV to maintain the threat of light to moderate rain throughout the short term period. CAA at the low levels will also combine with the pcpn and the persistent cld cover to hold down the temps through Fri.
Northwest flow aloft was the rule over central portions of the CONUS early this morning behind the old broad trough axis. VAD wind data from nearby radars indicating westerly flow over the lower several thousand feet of the troposphere ahead of the front, helping keep temps in the upper 20s and 30s despite fairly clear skies. The cold front passes through during the morning and early afternoon, with a dry low to mid troposphere keeping any precipitation from forming and cloud cover largely limited to the upper levels.
635 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon and this evening. High pressure will build in for the end of the week.
Latest water vapor images show an upper level trough axis moving across the eastern part of South Central Texas. A dry and northerly flow aloft dominates much of the area as an upper level ridge builds across the conus southwest region. Isolated showers are occurring over the far east of the area early this morning, however, this activity will come to an end within the next hour as the upper level trough axis continues to push to the east. Cooler temperatures than normal are expected across South central Texas with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday should be a bit warmer than today by few degrees with highs reaching the 60s much of the area and lower 70s along the coastal plains.
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front extending NE-SW from lake Superior through WI into northwest IA on into Nebraska with arctic high pressure trailing it straddling the Canadian border between Saskatchewan province and the Dakotas. Aloft, a longwave upper level trough axis is swinging southeast through the Upper Mississippi River valley with solid northwest flow aloft in its wake. Clouds may be a little slow to erode due to the sluggish progression of the upper trough but the clearing will come by this afternoon. The mainly clear skies will then prevail through tonight as the high pressure area moves atop MN/WI. Thus, despite some sunshine later today, the strong cold air advection will translate to highs ranging from the mid-teens to the lower 20s.
With low-level ridging transiting the area, the weak flow will keep MVFR ceilings in place through the afternoon and into the evening hours. With continued southeasterly winds Friday night, temperatures will be milder ranging from the lower 40s northeast to around 50 degrees west. Highs will be in the lower 60s northeast to the around 70 degrees west.
738 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather today. A strong cold front will increase precipitation tonight and Friday and bring well below average temperatures into the weekend. High pressure will keep the area dry and cool. A strong cold front that will quickly cross this evening. Further south, more scattered activity is expected, even along the ridges where moisture remains limited. A dry Friday night follows as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
1039 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 Currently - An area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea is maintaining light to gentle northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, a weak trough is aligned along the east coast, while a high pressure system is working its way eastwards through the country's mid section. Temperatures will ease upwards into the mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Winds are expected to trend upwards tonight into this weekend as a high pressure system migrates eastwards into the eastern United States.
601 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 Aviation A wave of low pressure will develop on a cold front located in Wisconsin this morning. As the low pressure system tracks to the east of the area later today. The snow showers will push westward offshore Friday morning as an area of high pressure moves in. With surface temperatures above freezing. The wave of low pressure goes by this afternoon with strong cold air advection developing this afternoon. It looks like temperatures will fall below freezing from NW to SE through the afternoon and evening.
Mid level trough continues to move overhead with isolated showers and light rain developing across the Coastal Plains. Rain chances will begin to taper off as the mid level trough continues to move farther east this late afternoon/evening. High pressure will build into the region with winds relaxing further today with winds beginning to take on a more E-NE flow Friday. Small Craft Advisories will taper off from west to east as winds begin to weaken slightly as high pressure builds into the region.
1040 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 A cold front will be pushing into the area today and tonight, with strong high pressure to the north ridging into the area behind it. A cold front will be pushing into the area today and tonight with strong high pressure to the north building into the area behind it. Winds and seas will be on the increase tonight and into the weekend as the high builds and the pressure gradient over the waters tightens.
The previously mentioned upper low is forecast to deamplify by Friday afternoon as it moves onshore over the PAC NW region.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule today once the low cigs burn off this morning by 1500-1700Z. Thick low clouds and patchy fog across parts of eastern New Mexico and the lower Rio Grande Valley this morning will dissipate through lunch time.
620 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 Strong cold front tonight.
At 2 AM CDT, a vigorous cold front bringing the coldest air of this fall is poised to arrive in northwest sections the next 3 hours with brisk winds of 15 to 25 mph.
Shower activity is ending across the forecast area as lift associated with an upper level trough moves off to the east. Low cloudiness between IFR and MVFR levels will linger through the morning hours, then is expected to decrease rapidly to VFR levels after 09/18Z as drier and more subsident air moves in behind the upper level trough. Skies will gradually clear and become mostly sunny by late afternoon as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures are expected to remain below over the next few days with this area of high pressure in place. Beyond Friday, predominately zonal upper level flow is expected to be in place across the CONUS with a 588 dam ridge centered over western Mexico at 500 hPa.
1036 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon and this evening. High pressure will build in for the end of the week.
532 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2017 The cold front is just about through the forecast area reaching into north central Kansas as of 3am. There could be a chance for patchy freezing drizzle late tonight over southwest portions of the area with lift across the area. The GFS is much warmer. the low 30s NAM and mid-upper 40s GFS. Despite warm air advection at the surface, do think it could be on the cooler side with the persistent cloud cover.
but Friday will be cooler as a reinforcing shot of colder air dives into the Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys. with subfreezing readings in the north and east.
Flat upper level ridge builds across the area for Friday, allowing warm front to push into central South Dakota.
Most of South Florida will see highs in the mid-80s, except for coastal areas right along the beach, where highs will be a couple degrees cooler. /issued 348 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017/ A 500mb ridge that was to the west, has weakened as a short wave is making its way across the deep south. A developing low off the Carolina coast, just ahead of the short wave, will bring a cold front into north Florida today. High pressure will build to the north, causing the pressure gradient to increase over the area, resulting in breezy conditions for the Atlantic coastal areas.
High pressure will slide off to the southeast today and return flow will kick in tonight. A fast moving upper level wave may spark some light snow/freezing rain across portions of central North Dakota early Friday morning.
/issued 342 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Quieter, dry weather will prevail across west central Texas through Friday morning behind a cold front that has made its way through the Big Country early this morning. Gusty north winds and cooler temperatures will follow the front today. The dry air, light winds, and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s by early Friday morning.