Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weakening cold front will push across central and southern Utah today. Strong high pressure aloft will follow for the middle and latter portions of the upcoming week. The large-scale pattern this morning shows a split flow over Utah with a northern branch trough starting to exit northern Utah while a closed low is nearly stationary over Arizona. A weak cold front has pushed drier air into northwestern Utah where skies are clear this morning. Temperatures today may be slightly cooler than yesterday behind the cold front, but not noticeably so. A general drying trend will continue through much of the week as high pressure currently over the West Coast builds into the Great Basin. Temperatures will trend warmer as well and should be well above normal for the second half of the week.
The area will remain under an upper level ridge like yesterday, but low level winds will be coming out of the north today. So, temps may be a degree or 2 cooler, and humidity levels will drop. We will keep the forecast rain free for most of the Mid State, but a 20 pop will be included for the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau where models show greater instability and some weak convergence. Highs will creep up a degree or 2 again as the upper ridge builds slightly.
754 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial Day. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. Focus will then shift toward weak cold front pushing into the region from Ohio. However, diurnal heating/pre-frontal destabilization should result in sct convection developing along cold front later today. Any lingering evening shra/tsra across eastern Pa should diminish by late tonight, as weak cold front slowly pushes thru. Ridging at sfc and aloft build into central Pa Tuesday, bringing fair and warm wx.
1057 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next few days.
1029 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Weak high pressure is ridging across the area from the Gulf region with an upper trough in place over the state. With weak ridging building over the waters from the northern Gulf and the enhancement of the sea breeze along the coast, winds will turn more to the W/NW through the afternoon and remain generally AOB 10 knots.
The upper ridge extending northwest from Bermuda toward the mid Atlantic region has weakened slightly and shifted east as a result of Tropical Depression Bonnie moving northwest into the South Carolina coastline. On the surface, a pair of high pressure centers remain over the mid Atlantic region and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Sea breeze showers and storms can be expected during the afternoon for the next couple of days with the highest concentration being south of the I-4 corridor and over inland counties.
913 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 Upper level ridging will move slowly east across western Washington today and Tuesday bringing sunny skies and a short warming trend.
1104 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will build across the area today through Tuesday.
700 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 The Northland will reside underneath weak high pressure ridging today, which will lead to sunny skies (at least this morning), and much warmer temps than the past several days. An easterly surge of cooler air off Lake Superior appears rather likely with this system, and Tuesday could end up being another rather cold, rainy and foggy day for many places in the Twin Ports vicinity and points north and northeast.
605 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 A surface warm front extends from northeast Nebraska to northeast Missouri early this morning and is moving very slowly to tbe east. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed near and east of this warm front from the WAA aloft. The situation with the warm front will likely persist to some degree thru mid-morning, maintaining the threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of northeast MO and west-central IL. For much of today, should see decent sunshine for most areas with a weak southeast to south flow developing as the surface warm front moves thru. This feature will drive a cold front thru the region Wed/Wed night. Guidance suggests significant troughs dvlpng along the Coasts with a high amplitude ridge aligned along the Rockies over the wknd which puts the.
836 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure aloft will strengthen over California, bringing a warming trend this week. a weak low pressure system in the vicinity of Southern California is expected to bring a cooling trend and slow deepening of the marine layer. Temperatures will be about average, except where clouds persist, where it will be slightly cooler. Weak upper level low pressure over western Arizona today will move east.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across eastern Colorado. A lee side trough will strengthen across eastern portions of Wyoming and Colorado today. Increasing insolation will destabilize the lower levels of the atmosphere today with CAPE values increasing to at least 2000 j/kg this afternoon. The models all move a Pacific cold front southeast across the area during the day. This will have implications on daytime high temperatures as the MAV MOS guidance is cooler than the MET MOS. With showers and thunderstorms developing along and over the frontal boundary during the day along with increasing cloud cover, will leave the going temperature forecast as is which lines up with the cooler MAV.
Temps are on the rise this morning as current obs across the TN Valley are in the lower 80s! As seen on visible satellite and out the window, daytime Cu is developing. With high pressure building into the region and T.
Warmer weather can be expected through the week as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region. The Fort Ord profiler is still around 1,500 feet, although that value should be on the decrease today as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region. Synoptically the ridge will be the main driving force for the weather this week. Longer range outlook is interesting as the models bring an upper low near (or potentially across) our CWA over the weekend. Longer range automated 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks indicate wetter than normal conditions along with warmer than normal temperatures. SFO Bridge Approach. Northerly winds will continue over the coastal waters as high pressure remains over the Eastern Pacific.
An upper level ridge will build into the Pacific Northwest today, bringing clearing skies and drying weather to southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. The ridge will produce warming temperatures over the next couple of days with light offshore flow pushing inland temps close to 90 on Tuesday.
A weak and slow moving upper level low will maintain temperatures slightly below average to start the week.
and cold front is currently approaching the Billings area. The cold front will continue across the region this morning. The associated upper level low moves off into North Dakota overnight. Northwest winds ramp up significantly as the low exits the region, with gusts approaching 50mph by Tuesday afternoon. Temps will be cooler Tuesday and especially Tuesday night under quickly clearing skies. Upper ridge of varying magnitudes will persist over the northern Rockies with downslope westerly winds in the lower elevations helping to push temperatures into the 80s by the end of the week. A few disturbances cresting the ridge will bring an increase in cloud cover at times but organized precipitation potential looks very unlikely outside of diurnal mountain convection each afternoon/evening.
/issued 400 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved inland to the CA/AZ border over the last 24 hours, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under continued SW flow aloft.
Highs should easily reach the lower to mid 80s, with some upper 80s possible if sun can be out in full this afternoon. Tuesday afternoon forcing increases again as the cold front approaches the area. Convection will continue Tuesday night as the cold front slowly moves into eastern Iowa and low pressure moves northeast from Kansas.
Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies today as high pressure begins to build into the midwest. With the high to the north and TD Bonnie to our east, there will be a increase in the pressure gradient over the region, resulting in a slight breeze out of the N/NW this afternoon. Good heating this afternoon and the little bit of upslope lift may allow for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to form over the higher terrain of NE AL, Southern Middle TN, and northern GA. A repeat of today is expected on Tuesday with temps climbing another degree or two but with the ridge axis in place, increased subsidence should prevent any convective development.
Updated to raise high temperatures a few degrees this afternoon with most location ranging from near 90 degrees to the lower 90s across the delta region and Memphis metro area. Thin high clouds cover the Mid-South and temps range from the lower 60s near Paris to lower 70s at Memphis International. Lows will range from the lower 60s along the Tennessee River to upper 60s in the Delta tonight. slightly warmer Tuesday night.
The lowest FFG are for the valley and northeastern ND, thus reduced weather story flash flooding risk from moderate to low.
The focus for better coverage of convective rainfall will be with the approaching surface cold front late tonight through Tuesday night. One or more organized storm clusters should evolve across the high Plains this evening and move east-southeast into portions of central Kansas late tonight. The combination of the effective surface cold front and/or mesoscale outflow boundaries moving into the area will provide the focus for additional convection, be it surface based or quasi-elevated storms.
/issued 351 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Elongated upper level low across the Desert Southwest will put South Central TX under diffluent flow aloft while SE influx of moisture across the area. Lean towards the lower end of the guidance. Overnight low temperatures will remain on the warmer side remaining in the upper 70s. Tuesday will be a repeat of the weather pattern as elongated trough almost remains stationary over the Desert SW.
735 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak frontal boundary may generate scattered thunderstorms over the ridges this afternoon. A clear night with average low temperature is forecast with building high pressure tonight.
630 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 At 3 AM, a 1016 mb high pressure area was located across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This is in response to the short wave trough moving slowly out of the Northern and Central Plains.
08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak bubble of high pressure over central Illinois, while a stationary frontal boundary remains poised just to the west from southern Iowa into eastern Missouri. Forecast still showery with thunderstorm activity off and on through the middle of the week until another upper low digs in over the Plains and drags a front through the region. A few degrees cooler behind the boundary, but not by much and not for long. Main concern with the forecast surrounds the progression of the low with the performance of the models lately with timing.
We remain in a bubble of high pressure, trapped between two systems. The first is a fairly large trough that is place across the Plains. This trough continues to generate MCS after MCS for the last several days.
742 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Aviation Fair weather is expected for this Memorial Day and last into Tuesday as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes.
With the higher CAPE values on the far eastern plains, the strongest storms will develop out there, later in the evening. Nonetheless, satellite data would suggest at least an increase in mid level moisture so the higher PoPs in the forecast for today seem reasonable. For tonight, cold front will push south across the plains late this evening. Upper level trough dropping in from the northwest and moist post-frontal anticyclonic upslope flow on the plains promises a cooler. Farther out on the plains the low cloud cover will not as thick nor as extensive and the chance of precip not as great. High country areas generally west of the Continental Divide should see less cloud cover and warmer temperatures on Tuesday.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern Wyoming will strengthen over the Black Hills and slide east across South Dakota through the day. This will drag a trailing cold front into the CWA tonight into a moderately unstable airmass. In any event, strongest convection is expected along the cold front this evening and overnight. Region remains in weak, nearly zonal flow aloft with flow becoming more northwesterly by the weekend as ridging builds to our west.
However we should see a slight increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms activity today as the upstream troughs swing eastward over the next 24 to 36 hours. As expected the northern stream trough is associated with a stronger jet and will accelerate at a quicker pace across the northern states. Ingredients for convection come together a little better in the north today so the lower elevations will have a better chance of seeing a passing shower. Otherwise expect convection to continue to favor the higher terrain.
Main concern will be potential for localized flooding in the far eastern Midlands and Pee Dee where the highest moisture remains. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to middle 80s and lows tonight in the middle 60s. Weak upper troughing is also indicated. With the low level moisture from recent rain there is potential for fog or CIG restrictions late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
A few light showers are being observed over western Coconino County this morning on the northwest flank of an area of low pressure sitting over southwestern AZ. The weak upper low was drifting into western Arizona this morning.
A large mesohigh axis extended all the way from the wake of this MCS northwest to the southwest TX Panhandle with rather low dewpoints in the lower 50s over much of our CWA. This activity should be aided by stronger southwesterlies aloft preceding an upper low in southern CA.
A slow-moving low pressure system across the desert southwest will persist through Tuesday yielding cooler than normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Thereafter high pressure builds over the regions for a sharp warming trend. A weak upper low is centered over the Mohave Desert early this morning. To the north is an upper trough centered with an axis over the northern Rockies. In between the low and the trough is a deformation zone. Upstream of our low is a ridge just offshore. As the low slowly drifts east- southeastward, it will try to tap into moisture from the Plains as well as subtropical moisture from Baja and Sonora. With the low center dipping south of the Mexico border by Tuesday afternoon, northeasterly steering flow will help move storms from the Rim and Yavapai County into south-central AZ.
Thin high clouds cover the Mid-South and temps range from the lower 60s near Paris to lower 70s at Memphis International. Lows will range from the lower 60s along the Tennessee River to upper 60s in the Delta tonight. slightly warmer Tuesday night.
1043 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial Day. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. Weak cold front pushing towards the region from eastern Ohio late this morning. Any lingering evening shra/tsra across eastern Pa should diminish by late tonight, as weak cold front slowly pushes thru. Ridging at sfc and aloft build into central Pa Tuesday, bringing fair and warm wx.
1002 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 Looking at upper air analysis from this morning, ridge a tad weaker over the forecast area, as short wave seen on water vapor imagery from the southern plains to central texas moves eastward. An upper level low is over the SW states this morning with an short wave moving around the larger low and into Texas. Through mid week the upper low over the desert southwest will very gradually move south and east. Ahead of the low very weak upper ridging is expected over the northern gulf coast.
This low will advance across the Dakotas tomorrow with the trof crossing the Cntrl Plains Tue night. Weak low pres was over Srn Sask with a subtle warm front from SD-IA. Observed 12Z soundings show fairly dry air over the region in the low-lvls. 5 C/km and late afternoon temps in the low- mid 80s.
Focus along this trough, along with diurnal instability and additional lift along sea breeze will provide precipitation chances today, mainly this afternoon.
Idaho and eastern Oregon will be several degrees cooler today, behind the the passage of a weak, early-morning cold front. Conditions will be dry under sunny skies both today and much of the upcoming week, as high pressure quickly builds over the Intermountain West. A dry cold front will move through the Western Magic Valley early this morning. The skies will remain mostly clear tonight and Tuesday as an upper ridge near the west coast builds into our area. Temperatures will be a little cooler today behind the cold front. A strong upper-level ridge will dominate through the period.
Position of the storm has disrupted the Altc ridge axis.
a quiet fcst period on tap as regime looks to be mainly suppressed by weak ridging from the west.
Modest northwest flow overnight, possibly result of subtle low- level trough offshore Atlantic waters, has provided enough convergence to induce isolated showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two along Broward County coastline. Expect little change in weather pattern through the short term, as weak troughing over the region will enhance overall lift slightly, to allow for convective initiation along both coasts' sea breezes during the afternoon, mainly over interior areas.
Current temps are in the lower to mid 80s across the region. Some of the high resolution models have been trying to develop isolated storms across the eastern CWA overnight.
Farther south, a closed upper low will drift slowly into western Arizona. Surface cyclogenesis will take place this afternoon w/lee troughing across southeast Wyoming by 18z.
724 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next few days.
There are a few rural hubs (CXO, LBX) where thinner cirrus have allowed the lowering of visbies.
Another warm day is expected for the region with highs in the lower to middle 80s once again.
the low will be tracking further off to the northeast and expect best rain chances to push northeast along with the the low. Expect warmer temperatures across the CSRA with more sun/less rain and slightly cooler temperatures toward the Pee Dee.
Still with the high pressure in place local boundaries will be needed to provide the lift. /issued 342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/ The CWA is currently under somewhat zonal upper level pattern with a ridge centered over Mexico and troughs on the west side of the Rockies.
In the last hour or two, a more discrete cumulus line with embedded showers has developed downwind of the lower Florida Keys.
An upper level low is over the SW states this morning with an short wave moving around the larger low and into Texas. Through mid week the upper low over the desert southwest will very gradually move south and east. Ahead of the low very weak upper ridging is expected over the northern gulf coast.
Cold front associated with today's upper level disturbance as push as far sound as Great Falls currently. cold front does not make it to SW MT until tonight. Areas that see the cold frontal passage will struggle to get to near normal highs. Elsewhere could see highs in the low to mid 60s. An upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front will continue to move across the area.
High pressure will build across the northeastern United States during midweek.
Later in the week a relatively weak upper low drifting east to west across Texas will bring lower, but persistent chances for rain to southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas while areas to the north should be rain-free in a drier and milder airmass.
Nam/Gfs/Canadian did best on the low level thermal field. Mesoscale influences have dramatically affected the low level environment tonight. So went toward the warmer guidance. As a result, kept the higher pops, especially in the southern portion of the area, going for a little longer. tended go toward the cooler guidance.
1258 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will migrate from the midwest today across the Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday and take full control of aviation weather in SE Michigan. While max temperatures still warm into the low and mid 80s, dewpoints in the 50s (perhaps even some 40s across the northern portion of the forecast area) will allow humidity to ease and make for a more comfortable day. High pressure and clear skies tonight will bring the coolest temperatures we have seen in days, but still slightly above normal in the low 50s to low 60s in the Detroit heat island. Upper ridging will build into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night in response to a large upper low digging into the Northern Plains.
AT 1100 AM MANY LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW to middle 70S WITH RAPIDLY FALLING HUMIDITY. The Northland will reside underneath weak high pressure ridging today, which will lead to sunny skies (at least this morning), and much warmer temps than the past several days. An easterly surge of cooler air off Lake Superior appears rather likely with this system, and Tuesday could end up being another rather cold, rainy and foggy day for many places in the Twin Ports vicinity and points north and northeast.
However, the better forcing is located over the north today, and thus have the highest pops going in this location.
A lee side trough will strengthen across eastern portions of Wyoming and Colorado today. Increasing insolation will destabilize the lower levels of the atmosphere today with CAPE values increasing to at least 2000 j/kg this afternoon. The models all move a Pacific cold front southeast across the area during the day. This will have implications on daytime high temperatures as the MAV MOS guidance is cooler than the MET MOS. With showers and thunderstorms developing along and over the frontal boundary during the day along with increasing cloud cover, will leave the going temperature forecast as is which lines up with the cooler MAV.
644 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak bubble of high pressure over central Illinois, while a stationary frontal boundary remains poised just to the west from southern Iowa into eastern Missouri. Forecast still showery with thunderstorm activity off and on through the middle of the week until another upper low digs in over the Plains and drags a front through the region. A few degrees cooler behind the boundary, but not by much and not for long. Main concern with the forecast surrounds the progression of the low with the performance of the models lately with timing.
Still have residual ridging over the area and winds should decouple. mainly to the east closer to the ridge center. The crux of the matter is how the solutions handle the interaction between an upper level low moving northeast from northern Mexico and a short wave pushing through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. The former solutions end up with a warmer low level pattern across eastern/southern MN and western WI with more potential for ice accumulation while the latter are colder with mainly snow. Both the 12z and 18z NAM have virtually all freezing rain with amounts approaching 0.