Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
316 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Tonight, under a building ridge of weak high pressure, clear skies will continue to prevail as temperatures drop to a comfortably-cool 50 degrees or thereabouts. Saturday, the ridge of high pressure builds in a bit stronger and allows high temperatures to climb above 90 degrees again under sunny skies.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Tonight, under a building ridge of weak high pressure, clear skies will continue to prevail as temperatures drop to a comfortably-cool 50 degrees or thereabouts. Saturday, the ridge of high pressure builds in a bit stronger and allows high temperatures to climb above 90 degrees again under sunny skies.
High pressure located to our east will slowly sink southward toward northern Mexico as low pressure continues to spin near the central CA coast and larger trough moves into the PacNW.
937 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020 (Issued 937 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020) A cool front is passing through se WI at this time although a secondary cold front much later tnt-Sat AM will bring much of the cooling and drying that is expected. Scattered stratus may develop with the secondary cold front but skies will become mostly sunny by late morning. Gehring (Issued 250 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020) Tonight through Saturday night: The cold front currently over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa will be main driver of any additional thunderstorms today. At this point coverage looks isolated to scattered with the best chances over far southern and far southeastern Wisconsin as that area hasn't been worked over as much and it's where the highest instability and lapse rates are expected.
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020 A cold front approaching the CWA is expected to lead to showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Lows are expected to be a bit cooler than last night, with temps in the low to mid 50s. This cold front is in conjunction with a vertically stacked low currently over northwestern Ontario. The low is expected to slide southeastward, reaching the eastern side of Lake Superior tomorrow afternoon. This low pressure is expected to interact with high pressure likely to build over North Dakota tonight into tomorrow. High pressure remains over the area heading into Saturday night leading to mostly clear skies and winds calming down by early evening.
A deepening upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will support a cold front which will drop south through KY Saturday and Saturday evening. Drier and cooler air will arrive behind the front on Saturday night, allowing for a reprieve from the muggy conditions.
Mean layer ridging entrenched across the area is lending to below normal rain chances, gentle southeasterly breezes and above normal temperatures.
High dewpoints will remain in place across the region tonight which will keep lows mainly in the low 70s across much of the forecast area, possibly dipping into the upper 60s across northwest Arkansas.
629 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Hot and a bit humid this afternoon as the region is sandwiched between Tropical Depression Laura to the southeast and an approaching cold front to the northwest. This cold front should enter NW Missouri by this evening and be completely through the region by Saturday morning. Cooler air will come into the region behind the front, and this paired with ample high level cloud cover will yield high temperatures on Saturday likely around 10 degrees or so cooler than those of today.
645 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020 At 1 pm, a surface cold front was dropping south through the area, extending from northeast WI through southwest WI and then into northeast IA. Otherwise, there is currently a N-S line of showers forming across north central MN associated with mid-level trough but these are expected to weaken/diminish as they approach our area this evening. For the rest of tonight, drier and cooler air continues to filter in courtesy of Canadian high pressure building in. Quiet/cooler/drier weather set for the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds over the region.
528 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Lingering low-level moisture behind a cold front continues to manifest itself as a stratus deck over portions of cntrl/s cntrl SD this aftn, with a very shallow cu field evident to its NW via satellite imagery. Sfc analysis indicates that a center of high pressure continues to nose SEwd into the Dakotas. High pressure shifts toward cntrl SD/NE overnight, initiating return flow over the WY plains and into wrn SD.
High pressure across the region is finally giving way to a cold front crossing the local area this afternoon. as a strong CAP in place across the area will likely prevent any further development along the cold front through the afternoon hours. The main story for tomorrow will then be the much cooler temperatures. Expect noticably cooler temperatures and multiple. expect an area of decaying convection from the high plains to approach the local area during the overnight hours.
A cold front stretches from northeast Iowa southwestward to near KDSM to KOMA. Ahead of the cold front dewpoints were in the upper 60s to lower 70s with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. An unstable but capped environment is in place across the region ahead of a cold front that will move across the area this evening. Model timing appears to be slower than originally thought based on observations although a secondary cold front is moving through northwest Iowa. Behind the cold front, expect clearing skies overnight with falling temperatues and dewpoints. High pressure will move across the region through the weekend with lower dewpoints and noticeably cooler temperatures on Saturday.
Dew points in the tropical airmass were mostly in the lower 70s.
It will be kept south of the area by a crossing cold front that will eventually merge with the remnants late Saturday. The approaching cold front later in the day will reinvigorate convection but also quickly push most of the activity out of the area. By Saturday night, high pressure begins to move into the region bringing a dry bout to the forecast area.
523 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Tonight, under a building ridge of weak high pressure, clear skies will continue to prevail as temperatures drop to a comfortably-cool 50 degrees or thereabouts. Saturday, the ridge of high pressure builds in a bit stronger and allows high temperatures to climb above 90 degrees again under sunny skies.
935 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Showers and storms could never really get their act together this afternoon/evening, likely due to the presence of too much dry air and warmer temperatures aloft (per this evening's sounding from XMR) for updrafts to sustain themselves.
However, the approach and passage of a weak cold front will be enough to warrant a slight to low chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will bring slightly drier air into the region tonight.
A cold front will be on approach from the Ohio Valley, and as the front pushes into the hot and humid air, scattered thunderstorms will develop.
SUMMARY: Cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend, leaving our weather pleasant before a chance of thunderstorms Sunday night.
315 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in drier and cooler weather. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday.
841 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 A strong dry cold front will bring strong winds and elevated fire concerns for Saturday.
A cold front will be dropping down across the AR/MO border region tomorrow, likely stalling across northern AR.
Highs today will be in the mid 80s with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Temperatures at 850mb are slightly cooler on Sunday; thus, afternoon Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than Saturday's highs.
High pressure remains firmly in place, centered on Chihuahua, while a respectable low is positioned up NE of Cold Lake, AB. A trough extending from this low should extend into the northern Rockies by Sunday morning which will largely translate eastward.
Breezy south winds and warmer air will spread across the CWA today and tonight as high pressure moves southeast and a lee trough/dryline intensifies. A strong upper trough now over British Columbia will race toward the CWA on Sunday, pushing a strong cold front through during the day. However, the atmosphere will remain capped until the cold front arrives during mid- afternoon. The temperature forecast is tricky given the timing of the front, but have opted toward the high side of MOS guidance given the warm surge ahead of the front and the potential for compressional heating.
Cloud tops continue to cool over northern MS where backbuilding into the theta-E ridge and higher CAPE continues. For Today, with the mid-upper trough axis shifting southeast, a ridge at 5h shifts from AR/OK into MS/AL by this afternoon. The 5h ridge collapses as westerlies shift south through the Ozarks into the upper TN valley. A larger more organized MCS will track east through the mid MS valley into the lower OH and TN valley Sunday morning.
332 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 An area of high pressure over the region is producing clear skies and seasonal temperatures. The high pressure will drift eastward across the region today with increasing southerly winds developing over the western Dakotas. An approaching low pressure system from the west will strengthen the LLJ along the Missouri River, mainly after 6Z Sunday. There will be good instability ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor of must unstable CAPE of 1000-2500 J/KG. The instability does shift southwest of the CWA as storms develop along the cold front. Strong northwesterly winds will follow the cold front with gusts exceeding 45 mph possible over the western CWA. A low pressure system, and attendant cold front, will be sweeping eastward into Minnesota.
203 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Aviation - Storms tonight, then a dry weekend - Cooler -- Storms tonight, then a dry weekend -- Low pressure over northwest Wisconsin this afternoon will drag a cold front eastward across Lower Michigan tonight. Cooler air will flow in behind the front. An even cooler airmass will arrive by the end of the week. The main aviation concern through the next 24 hours will be the MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys from the cold front that moves across Lower Michigan between 07Z to 15Z. Cold air flowing in behind the cold front tonight will will cause waves to build Saturday. A cold front just moving through Western Wisconsin will track across southwest Lower Michigan this evening triggering another round of storms.
Flow aloft is out of the northwest as an upper ridge over southwest Canada/the northwest US gets nudged east this weekend by a Pacific trough moving onshore. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Northern Plains will also shift east, positioning itself overhead by tonight. Low temperatures Saturday night will generally be in the low 50s, but our cooler sandy soil/cranberry bog areas, as well as locations further north in Wisconsin, will likely fall into the 40s.
1049 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Lingering low-level moisture behind a cold front continues to manifest itself as a stratus deck over portions of cntrl/s cntrl SD this aftn, with a very shallow cu field evident to its NW via satellite imagery. Sfc analysis indicates that a center of high pressure continues to nose SEwd into the Dakotas. High pressure shifts toward cntrl SD/NE overnight, initiating return flow over the WY plains and into wrn SD. Rather strong cold front blasts through the area Sunday.
Precipitation chances in the form of showers and thunderstorms, however, will continue on Saturday afternoon as a cold frontal boundary pushes southward toward our area.
A cold front stretches from northeast Iowa southwestward to near KDSM to KOMA. Ahead of the cold front dewpoints were in the upper 60s to lower 70s with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. An unstable but capped environment is in place across the region ahead of a cold front that will move across the area this evening. Model timing appears to be slower than originally thought based on observations although a secondary cold front is moving through northwest Iowa. Behind the cold front, expect clearing skies overnight with falling temperatues and dewpoints. High pressure will move across the region through the weekend with lower dewpoints and noticeably cooler temperatures on Saturday. Ridging will be in place across the area during the day on Sunday while a disturbance passes to our south across Missouri and into the mid South.
At upper levels, flow will be nearly zonal and a ridge will build to the north in Montana and southern Canada. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the north, crossing through Nebraska overnight, causing winds to shift from the north to the south by Saturday morning. A strong upper level trough advances eastward, extending from Canada into Nebraska. At the surface, a cold front moves eastward across the state during the day.
223 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 223 AM CDT Our surface cold front continues to shift southeastward across central IL and IN early this morning. In its wake northwesterly winds are ushering in a much cooler and less humid airmass. High temperatures both today and Sunday will be around 80 degrees, and overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s outside of Chicago.
After 15Z, winds will increase in response to the cold front pushing into the area. High dewpoints will remain in place across the region tonight which will keep lows mainly in the low 70s across much of the forecast area, possibly dipping into the upper 60s across northwest Arkansas.
438 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 The remnants of former tropical cyclone Laura will pass by to the north of our region today. High pressure will briefly return on Sunday providing warm and slightly drier conditions.
Today through Sunday: High pressure will build in today from the west behind our exiting cold front leading to clear, less humid, and seasonable conditions. Deepening low pressure to our east will tighten the pressure gradient, however, leading to some gusty winds during the daytime hours. Winds will slacken Saturday night, and clear conditions and seasonable temperatures will linger into Sunday as the high pressure center shifts overhead.
Look for highs only up into the mid/upper 70s(F) to the lower 80s(F) this afternoon.
345 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted SE over the past 24 hours, courtesy of a large trough over the CA coast, and is now centered over the Permian Basin. Despite this, the ridge has will shift to NW Chihuahua this afternoon, so temps should come in slightly cooler than yesterday's. Also, a weak cold front will stall over the nrn zones this morning. Sunday, the ridge shifts a little farther south, but models are in agreement in increasing thicknesses/H85 temps a little over today's.
These conditions look to persist through the day as high pressure centered to our west slides east across the area. The only weather concern in the short term will be the chance for precipitation in the west late Sunday afternoon as the upper trough and associated frontal boundary start to work into the area.
301 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 223 AM CDT Our surface cold front continues to shift southeastward across central IL and IN early this morning. In its wake northwesterly winds are ushering in a much cooler and less humid airmass. High temperatures both today and Sunday will be around 80 degrees, and overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s outside of Chicago.
Dew points in the tropical airmass were mostly in the lower 70s. A cold front approaching during the afternoon and evening will cause scattered showers to redevelop starting around TRI then working down toward TYS and CHA, so added PROB30 groups for this possibility. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 88 73 86 / 30 30 50 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 71 87 71 85 / 40 40 40 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 87 69 85 / 30 20 40 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 67 84 66 83 / 80 30 20 40 60.
This storm activity should move east into the Panhandle late in the afternoon and evening and then carve southeast toward or through swrn Nebraska as the low level jet increases later this evening. A cold front sweeping through wrn Nebraska during the afternoon is expected to be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across ncntl Nebraska. This forecast was warmer than the short term model blend and close to the RAP and HRRR temperature forecasts for highs in the mid 80s across wrn Nebraska. The cooler guidance blend was favored for lows in the 50s to around 60 Sunday morning.
1256 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Another round of showers and isolated storms is possible today with the passage of a cold front. Models want to re-fire more convection across the southern border as dawn approaches, streaming the activity northeastward toward the aforementioned exiting trough axis. High pressure moves into the region tonight bringing a dry bout to the forecast area.
Turning cooler this weekend with another chance of strong to severe storms on Sunday evening.
A few clouds on the southwest side of an upper low in norhtern Ontario will brush far northeastern fcst area. Clouds to increase from west to east Sunday ahead of a deepening 500 mb trough and associated cold front.
357 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Another round of showers and isolated storms is possible today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure moves into the region tonight bringing a dry bout to the forecast area.
302 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Surface observations at 07z show the cold front that brought widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area yesterday, was located from northwest Indiana to southwest Illinois. A secondary cold front with even cooler air and 50 degree dewpoints behind it, was starting to drop southeast into northern Iowa. Dewpoints will continue to fall through the day, with readings in the lower 50s area wide by sunset. With an ideal radiational cooling setup and current/developing drought conditions, kept lows on the lower side of guidance with readings dropping into the lower 50s. Flow then transitions to zonal before a deep trof moves into the western US. Discussion: Cooler and drier air will be in place at the start of the period as NW flow drives the weather.
A cold front will move through during the afternoon and early evening.
Almost all of the rain has shifted into eastern KY, however the low clouds linger around the low center. A cold front, now over northern IL/IN, will drop down into our region today. The cold front currently draped southwest through Illinois and Missouri will be south of KY by 12z Sun, but is forecast to stall as it encounters very weak flow aloft. This feature appears to induce a modest response in the lower levels, with an increasing SW LLJ and increasing moisture transport Sun PM and overnight.
As the high pressure system continues to slide southeastwards, quiet conditions are expected throughout the day on Saturday. Look for afternoon highs to be a touch cooler than they were today, hovering closer to the 80 degree mark with dew points continuing to drop into the lower 50s. As this low moves eastwards, the surface pressure gradient over our CWA is going to tighten, resulting in very breezy conditions. Mid-level frontogenesis develops in the afternoon as the low continues its approach, which will act as the focus for afternoon convection and will be traveling southeastwards throughout the afternoon into the evening. As the cold front propagates southeastwards, any ongoing thunderstorms will likely transition towards more of a multi-cellular threat as the storms merge, where strong winds will become the primary threat.
The outflow from these storms and the cold front will settle southeast today bringing a break to the hot weather across northern Oklahoma.
1039 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020 At 1 pm, a surface cold front was dropping south through the area, extending from northeast WI through southwest WI and then into northeast IA. Otherwise, there is currently a N-S line of showers forming across north central MN associated with mid-level trough but these are expected to weaken/diminish as they approach our area this evening. For the rest of tonight, drier and cooler air continues to filter in courtesy of Canadian high pressure building in. Quiet/cooler/drier weather set for the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds over the region.
/issued 335 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020/ Lower Mississippi River Valley region is under the influence of wake trough aligning with upper level trough axis to maintain a focus for convection that has persisted since the early morning from southwest Louisiana, through the Atchafalaya Basin into southern Mississippi. GFS shows some enhancement of moisture on an axis oriented on the west flank of the building Bermuda ridge that lurks off the coast heading into Saturday.
1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Hot and a bit humid this afternoon as the region is sandwiched between Tropical Depression Laura to the southeast and an approaching cold front to the northwest. This cold front should enter NW Missouri by this evening and be completely through the region by Saturday morning. Cooler air will come into the region behind the front, and this paired with ample high level cloud cover will yield high temperatures on Saturday likely around 10 degrees or so cooler than those of today.
Overall dry weather this week but a few late day storms possible over the high Sierra today. Southeasterly mid level flow and upper level diffluence setup over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon, as differential heating increases instability, to lead to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Highs tomorrow expected to be near to several degrees warmer across the CWA. Closed upper low forecast to drift farther south along the CA coast Sunday allowing more stable conditions over our portion of the Sierra Nevada.
A few showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this morning as a cold front passes central Indiana. The subsequent mass of high pressure will bring a return to lower humidity and milder temperatures through late Sunday.
916 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in drier and cooler weather. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday.
High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will be positioned over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
645 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 The remnants of former tropical cyclone Laura will pass by to the north of our region today. High pressure will briefly return on Sunday providing warm and slightly drier conditions.
After looking at the reported high temperatures across the region yesterday, I asked myself "what happened"? Most areas were 2 to 4 degrees warmer than forecast. Water vapor imagery indicated a weak upper low center just off the coast that drifted far enough southwest to neutralize the onshore flow and warm things up. The broad area of low pressure is making it very difficult to determine the onshore flow possibilities.
the leading edge of which will surge through the Tri-State area as an effective cold front Sun eve/night.
High pressure moves into the region tonight bringing a dry bout to the forecast area.
507 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Low pressure will move east out of the Great Lakes today, with a cold front moving through the area this morning. High pressure will build east across the region this afternoon through Sunday night.
It was kind of a fallish morning, with some temperatures in the lower 40s along the Canadian border in northeast North Dakota. A few clouds on the southwest side of an upper low in northern Ontario will brush far northeastern fcst area. Clouds to increase from west to east Sunday ahead of a deepening 500 mb trough and associated cold front.