Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
239 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A slow moving surface frontal system and upper level trough will track slowly across the Dakotas tonight and tomorrow. Sunday we will see the slow moving cold front in central North Dakota become the focus for thunderstorm initiation, and as the day progresses, CAPE and shear will increase. Flow across the cold front could support upscale growth into a linear MCS with strong winds later Sunday evening.
315 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 We are rewarded with pleasant temperatures again this afternoon for most locations in West Texas and southeast New Mexico, as an upper high sits well off to the west. A broad theta-e ridge extends from the eastern Permian Basin to lower Trans Pecos.
West of this feature, warmer mid- level temperatures are expected to spread across the Panhandles and western/southwest Kansas.
The forecast remains on track for hot and dry weather today with a dry cold frontal passage expected this evening. A dry cold front will move through this evening.
A mid and upper level trough currently extended from western South Dakota through western Nebraska into central Kansas. An upper trough moving into the Northern Plains will bring a chance for thunderstorms to the Dakotas. Increasing chances for thunderstorms Sunday night as the upper trough and cold front pushes through western Nebraska.
Isolated storms look to occur west of Rosebud county this evening and through midnight, with a cold front following it Sunday morning. A cold front will follow in the storms wake and pass over southeastern Montana early Sunday morning, shifting surface winds to the northwest, and bringing temperatures down to the low 80s. A more broad upper trough will reach south into Montana throughout Sunday, and provide energy for showers and non-severe thunderstorms to take place in the evening.
This will get some warmer and moister air back into the area. With mid level troughing also in place there will be plenty of support of some isolated to scattered showers in eastern Kansas later this evening and tonight.
355 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A broad area of low pressure currently centered over SW Florida will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area for the next day or so as it pushes northeastward out over the Atlantic.
1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure providing the area with mostly clear/cool conditions early this morning. High pressure will continue to provide cooler/dry/pleasant conditions today. However, any precipitation looks to hold off until Sunday night as dry outflow from high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to spill dry air into our area. Slightly warmer overnight lows expected otherwise -in the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
Meanwhile, a fairly sharp upper trough will slide east over the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. In the lower levels, a warm front will push in from the south.
214 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Dry and quiet today as yesterday's trough moves east and an upper level ridge begins to build in behind it.
By mid day Sunday, the trough will be over the lower MO River Valley, and southerly flow will be in place at the surface over the mid state.
352 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to the east reaching northern New England on Sunday, providing several days of cool-dry weather on its journey. Highs will be a tad warmer as the airmass modifies.
230 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather this weekend.
138 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather this weekend.
734 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather this weekend. Another cool night is in store tonight, with low temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s.
18Z surface data had high pressure over the Great Lakes with a developing low in southeast Colorado.
526 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Dry and quiet today as yesterday's trough moves east and an upper level ridge begins to build in behind it.
A dry cold front is expected in our CWA later this evening but no significant increase in winds is expected.
Cooler temperatures will follow the front to begin the new week. An elongated mid level ridge axis extending from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin will maintain a dry west northwest flow over the forecast area through early in the upcoming week.
A slow moving surface frontal system and upper level trough will track slowly across the Dakotas tonight and tomorrow. Sunday we will see the slow moving cold front in central North Dakota become the focus for thunderstorm initiation, and as the day progresses, CAPE and shear will increase. Flow across the cold front could support upscale growth into a linear MCS with strong winds later Sunday evening.
Due to the low probability that storms will develop and sparse coverage no mention of convection will be included this TAF cycle.
A few showers and storms may remain overnight as the low continues slowly northwestward. /issued 820 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ A weak enlongated area of low pressure continues to drift away from the Florida east coast tonight. /issued 355 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ A broad area of low pressure currently centered over SW Florida will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area for the next day or so as it pushes northeastward out over the Atlantic.
The ridge to the west nudges in just slightly resulting in subtle height rises.
Warming trend over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure anchors itself over the forecast area.
Lowered minimum temperatures an additional degree or two across portions of NE TN and SW VA where observations are already a few degrees cooler than forecast based on the cooler and drier airmass in this area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 81 70 78 / 50 50 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 83 67 80 / 10 30 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 67 82 67 79 / 10 40 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 82 61 79 / 10 10 10 20.
Showers may linger through tonight with the highest chances at COT and ALI. Deterministic and ensemble output suggest that an upper ridge will enter the region from the W/NW behind an upper trough/disturbance.
820 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A weak enlongated area of low pressure continues to drift away from the Florida east coast tonight. /issued 355 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ A broad area of low pressure currently centered over SW Florida will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area for the next day or so as it pushes northeastward out over the Atlantic.
Convection will ramp up again after midnight as low pressure aloft meanders over the northwest Gulf. A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms was located offshore in association with broad low pressure area that is lifting north through the region. This low is forecast to continue lifting north northeast across over the next 24 hours and showers and thunderstorms will continue with potential for locally heavy rainfall.
846 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A cold front will stall south of the area Sunday. Cool, dry air will move into the area tonight behind a cold front. Temperatures have been far cooler than model guidance so far tonight and lows will likely be cooler than even the coolest model guidance. Lows may be in the low to mid 60s over much of the area. The cold front will be just off to the south of the forecast area on Sunday.
Dry and quiet today as yesterday's trough moves east and an upper level ridge begins to build in behind it.
252 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Warming trend over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure anchors itself over the forecast area.
1031 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to the east reaching northern New England on Sunday, providing several days of cool-dry weather on its journey. Highs will be a tad warmer as the airmass modifies.
643 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Upper trough across the High Plains will gradually shift eastward through the Missouri Valley through Sunday.
Trough axis was present from the northern plains to the northwest Gulf with disturbance over Nebraska and another disturbance associated with an elongated of low pressure.
628 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada continues to make its presence felt, with comfortable ENE flow across the area offering tolerable dew points and afternoon temps in the mid 70s to near 80. Sunday, good chance PoPs for convection, driven by an evolving H5 trof to our west that will strengthen SSW moist flow over the area, along with providing lift and instability.
806 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to the east reaching northern New England on Sunday, providing several days of cool-dry weather on its journey. Stratocumulus is collapsing early this evening with loss of daytime heating and stable stratification from strong high pressure extending from eastern Ontario to central Quebec. Highs will be a tad warmer as the airmass modifies.
Convergence between the low offshore and the ridge axis nosing southward will bring an increase in rain chances along the SE GA coast and adjacent waters early Sunday morning with increasing low level clouds. Mild above normal temps tonight with low in the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s/near 80 along the coast. Winds near the coast back more NNE through the night as low pressure over south FL tracks NE offshore of the FL Atlantic coast and high pressure ridge axis strengthens southward over GA.
/issued 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ We are rewarded with pleasant temperatures again this afternoon for most locations in West Texas and southeast New Mexico, as an upper high sits well off to the west. A broad theta-e ridge extends from the eastern Permian Basin to lower Trans Pecos.
Ridging has started to build in overhead this afternoon. These warm, capping temperatures are expected to strengthen as the ridge expands further southeastward over the next couple of days.
706 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to the east reaching northern New England on Sunday, providing several days of cool-dry weather on its journey. Stratocumulus is collapsing early this evening with loss of daytime heating and stable stratification from strong high pressure extending from eastern Ontario to central Quebec. Highs will be a tad warmer as the airmass modifies.
949 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 An elongated area of low pressure was nearly stationary, extending from southwest Florida into the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas.
619 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to the east reaching northern New England on Sunday, providing several days of cool-dry weather on its journey. Highs will be a tad warmer as the airmass modifies.
1015 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A low pressure trough axis extends from SW FL northeast across Martin/St Lucie counties and well into the Atlc. Will hold onto a small chance for showers along the trough axis in Martin and St Lucie counties, otherwise expect most shower activity will remain over the Atlantic overnight. On Sunday, remnant trough axis across the southern counties should provide the best chance (50 percent) for scattered showers/storms focused on the afternoon. E/NE flow across north and central waters will become more northerly overnight into early Sunday as low pressure develops well offshore (beyond 60 miles). On Sunday, trailing trough axis across the southern waters will keep S/SW winds across the far south with NE winds across the remainder of the waters.
Temperatures were around 70 north of Interstate 94 and in the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. The high will continue to work slowly east into Sunday ahead of a mid-level trough moving into the central plains and a stronger trough/upper jet working across the northern Rockies. Kept a dry forecast through the day, despite a few models hinting at scattered showers trying to spread north into NE IA/SW WI ahead of the trough lifting northeast from the central plains into MO/IA by the afternoon. Some modest isentropic ascent will develop, but much of the moisture increase looks to be in the mid-levels, as the low-level moisture transport remains focused to the west through the day. On Sunday night, a short wave trough will eject out of the Central Plains.
1037 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A cold front will stall south of the area Sunday. Cool, dry air will move into the area tonight behind a cold front. Temperatures have been far cooler than model guidance so far tonight and lows will likely be cooler than even the coolest model guidance. Lows may be in the low to mid 60s over much of the area. The cold front will be just off to the south of the forecast area on Sunday.
A strong upper trough is situated over the Great Plains and will propagate eastward today and tonight while focusing much of the existing moisture across the region.
Models continue to show stout ML CIN resulting but also rather quick erosion of it in southeastern locations as a cold front approaches. The upper trough remains well north and the cap erosion remains in question with dewpoints rising through the day potentially keeping stratus in place, but isolated to scattered deep moist convection remains possible in the late afternoon and early evening before the front exits to the southeast.
333 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Today: Storms should continue as progressive upper trough moves east. May see storms linger a bit across south central KS along western edge, but with exiting upper low moving, these should wane by midday west of I-35.
18Z surface data had high pressure over the Great Lakes with a developing low in southeast Colorado. The surface cold front associated with this wave will move across the forecast area on Monday evening. The timing of the cold frontal passage is favorable to produce thunderstorms.
A mid and upper level trough currently extended from western South Dakota through western Nebraska into central Kansas. An upper trough moving into the Northern Plains will bring a chance for thunderstorms to the Dakotas. Increasing chances for thunderstorms Sunday night as the upper trough and cold front pushes through western Nebraska. Behind the cold front, highs from 75 to 80 with a breezy north to northwest wind.
Large high pressure over the northeastern United States will continue to provide pleasant weather to Indiana Today with partly cloudy skies and pleasant temperatures.
Quiet weather is in store for the remainder of the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the local area.
East of 283, temperatures will probably struggle to escape the lower 80s for highs. The Colorado border areas from Elkhart to Johnson to Syracuse will probably not see any impact from stratus cloud at all, and the combination of longer duration direct insolation and warmer 800- 850mb temperatures to begin with, these areas will likely make mid 90s for highs with even a few upper 90s possible. On Monday, a fairly strong cold front will be pushing quickly south across western Kansas. Monday high temperature forecast is subject to change if this cold front is slower/faster than currently forecast.
NAM has some over 2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE in central ND later this afternoon and evening, although deep layer bulk shear is not very impressive until the cold front passes. The upper trough will continue into MN tomorrow, with the weak front pushing east of us. Temps will be cooler in the upper 60s to low 70s. 00Z Tue - 12Z Wed Upper trough continues to dig over the Northern Plains with colder air moving in aloft Mon night through Tue night. Wed - Sat Long wave trough over the Northern Plains and central Canada shifts to eastern Canada and the northeast states through the period. Long wave ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure anchored over the Great Lakes continues to provide a dry E/NE boundary layer flow. as evidenced by 08z/3am surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s. Due to the increased cloud cover, high temperatures will range from the lower 70s around Jacksonville to near 80 degrees south of the I-70 corridor. 00z Aug 25 models continue to be in excellent agreement concerning the timing of the next approaching cold front. The cold front will push across Iowa/Missouri during the afternoon and will reach the Mississippi River by 00z Tue.
Isolated storms look to occur west of Rosebud county this evening and through midnight, with a cold front following it Sunday morning. A cold front will follow in the storms wake, and pass over southeastern Montana early Sunday morning, shifting surface winds to the northwest, and bringing temperatures down to the low 80s. A more broad upper trough will reach south into Montana throughout Sunday, and provide energy for showers and non-severe thunderstorms to take place in the evening.
This will keep temperatures near or cooler than what we saw yesterday with high temperatures expected to be in the low 80's across much of the Eastern Tennessee Valley. Expect another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances being in southeast Tennessee closer to the front.
A few showers and storms may remain overnight as the low continues slowly northwestward. /issued 355 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ A broad area of low pressure currently centered over SW Florida will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area for the next day or so as it pushes northeastward out over the Atlantic.
1146 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Upper trough across the High Plains will gradually shift eastward through the Missouri Valley through Sunday. Then a secondary trough moves into the area Sunday night through Monday. This helps push a stronger cold front into the area, with showers/storms likely late Sunday night north of I80, and areawide on Monday.
To the west, The left exit region of a 110kt jet is slowly moving towards the western Dakotas, in conjunction with a deepening upper trough. The environment features 0-6kt shear of 30-40kts and freezing levels around 11-13kft (the gradient is from west to east respectively). Overnight, storms continue east, however the low level jet will be deflected east of the CWA.
348 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 (Today and Tonight) An upper level high pressure ridge will begin building across the Southern Plains today.
The mean H500 flow aloft continues to be interrupted briefly by a ridge to the north of the area, with troughing on either side. Later tonight through the day Sunday, the flow aloft will amplify as an H500 trough begins to make progress out of the Southern Plains and move across the state. As the trough progresses east, precip chances will be confined to mainly eastern areas on Monday.
Another round of thunderstorms expected this afternoon, with the highest chances of storms being at KCHA.
Rain chances return Monday night with an approaching cold front. Upper ridging over the region will maintain dry and quiet conditions today and tonight. Winds will slowly veer on Monday as ridging continues to transition east.
Subsequent deepening of a mid-level trough is forecast across the north-central U. Tonight into Monday, the amplification of the aforementioned mid- level trough over the north-central U. will promote the equatorward progression of a cold front from the northern Plains through mid MO Valley. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to evolve along the cold front across the Dakotas later today with that activity spreading southeast into our area late tonight.
440 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Under partly cloudy skies and a steady, albeit light south to southwest wind near 10 mph, temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s along the island chain. A broad area of low pressure extending from the south central Florida and into the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico today will lift out toward the northeast by tonight.
A slow moving surface frontal system and upper level trough will track slowly across the Dakotas tonight and tomorrow. Sunday we will see the slow moving cold front in central North Dakota become the focus for thunderstorm initiation, and as the day progresses, CAPE and shear will increase. Flow across the cold front could support upscale growth into a linear MCS with strong winds later Sunday evening. On Monday, breezy northwest flow will bring in some cooler air, but scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible as an embedded short wave trough moves through. The remainder of the week we will be firmly entrenched in the cooler northwest flow, keeping temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s. Low pressure and an associated cold front in eastern Montana will move east today.
1133 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather this weekend.
Convection will ramp up again as the night progresses as low pressure aloft meanders over the northwest Gulf. Convection will ramp up again after midnight as low pressure aloft meanders over the northwest Gulf. A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms was located offshore in association with broad low pressure area that is lifting north through the region. This low is forecast to continue lifting north northeast across over the next 24 hours and showers and thunderstorms will continue with potential for locally heavy rainfall.
311 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The weak area of low pressure that has been over south Florida for the last few days will begin to move further north today into the western Atlantic.
even though outflow briefly knocked values down in the mid Valley expect those areas to rise back into the lower 80s and hold for most of the night.
234 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 High pressure will remain across region through the first half of the week. GOES water vapor imagery showed a developing upper low vicinity of the mid Atlantic coast. the high remains anchored to our north with the onshore flow to continue. especially over southern sections that will be closest to the developing upper low. Highs today will be in the lower and mid 70s. the upper low meanders north and east across the Gulf of Maine.
The resulting buildup of instability will bring a risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening into Monday night as a synoptically well support cold front moves through.
Region will be between high pressure to the north and inverted trough to the southeast Today. Cooler and drier air will try to push into SE GA in the nose of the high this afternoon, but will likely not get far. A tropical wave in the inverted trough may develop into a low this afternoon, with this energy tracks further to the northeast tonight. A northeast flow will develop between the trough and high today. The stronger this low is, the more of a push of cooler and drier air in the nose of the high will make Tonight.
A strong Pacific cold front will move in late tonight and Monday morning. Additional strong thunderstorm development is possible ahead of the cold front.
237 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Scattered/elevated convection over ptns srn/cntl MO will increase/advect into and over the PAH FA with time, as height falls spill down the Mississippi river valley out ahead of a mean long wave trof of energy racing from the High Plains to the Great Lakes states.
/issued 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ We are rewarded with pleasant temperatures again this afternoon for most locations in West Texas and southeast New Mexico, as an upper high sits well off to the west. A broad theta-e ridge extends from the eastern Permian Basin to lower Trans Pecos. The mid-level thermal ridge will expand even further east on Monday with 850 hpa temps approaching 36-37C (97-98F)! With adequate mixing, we could see record breaking high temperatures.
Upper level trough and strong jet moving across the Pacific northwest. Upper ridge starts to build back into the area later Sunday with clearing skies.