Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low level jet will be fairly strong through tonight, but at this point looks borderline for a wind advisory over the higher elevations so no wind advisory for now. Ridge off the Atlantic coast will continue to keep more significant rainfall north of the eastern Tennessee Valley through the weekend and beyond.
401 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 Another surge of warm, moist air associated with an Ontario cyclone will drag rain into NY and PA on Thursday.
The anticipated cold front is currently through south central KS and a very sharp temperature drop has been noted with its passage. This temp gradient has not been resolved well by numerical models which is not unexpected with this shallow cold front.
For the remainder of the morning, will keep the High Wind Warning in place for all of the eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor, with strongest winds shifting south toward the southern I-25 region (Walsenburg and Trinidad) as mountain wave breaks down, leaving La Veta Pass gap flow and brute force mixing as the main drivers of strong/damaging winds. As trough pushes east overnight, snowfall should taper back to flurries/snow showers, with bulk of accumulation done by 06- 09z.
Atlantic high pressure ridging into the Gulf of Mexico. A high pressure ridge axis just north of the waters will maintain easterly winds of 5 to 15 knots and seas in the 2 to 4 foot range through today.
316 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 A cold front will slowly approach from the west tonight through Thursday and will cross the region Thursday night.
Thus, in the grids, have highlighted the highest chance of precip in the aforementioned area.
Low-level jet still in place so we continue the low- level wind shear at all terminals excluding KLRD. Winds will become gusty again but not nearly as strong as today as the low-level jet and pressure gradient move away and relax.
Temperatures are running in the 70s with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s.
Some concern about brief freezing rain/drizzle after midnight tonight for portions of northeast/central MO as well as west central IL. As for low temps, decent CAA behind boundary, so lows will depend on where the cold front is. For now have lows ranging from the low 20s far north to the upper 50s far south. For now highs will be from the low 30s to low 60s. Expect mainly VFR conditions through the morning and early afternoon hours until a cold front moves from northwest to southeast across the area. Then a cold front will move through the terminal after 06Z with a chance of rain and ceilings falling into the MVFR category.
A cold front is likely to pass through KCDS early Thursday morning, bringing a wind shift to the north. RMcQueen Our unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Thursday though we wont approach record warmth like the previous couple days, mainly due to winds easing under Arctic high pressure across the Northern and Central Plains expanding southwest across our region.
445 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 Another surge of warm, moist air associated with an Ontario cyclone will drag rain into NY and PA on Thursday.
A 500mb trough to zonal flow will remain across the region through the end of the work week. At that point, a trough extending from a low crossing southern Manitoba will moving across at least our northeastern area. Expect temperatures Thursday night to fall into the -5 to -25F range, with the lowest readings over and east of the James River Valley.
150 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 Another surge of warm, moist air associated with an Ontario cyclone will drag rain into NY and PA on Thursday.
high confidence in the forecast Cold front starting to very slowly push south through the forecast area. As an area of low pressure moves from Central Missouri into Illinois through the evening the colder air will still be very slow to drop south. and freezing rain just south of there. with light freezing rain and possibly some sleet mixed in through about midnight.
1104 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 Forecast remains on track for a mostly sunny day with highs in the low 70s. Zonal flow aloft and ridging at the surface will prevail through today. Highs will run 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday, with most inland locations climbing into the lower 70s.
234 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017 An upper trough is beginning to move southward over the west coast allowing the CWA to be under west southwest flow aloft. The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains continues through most of tonight. This compressional warming, along with clearing skies, will result in warmer temperatures than yesterday. On Thursday, the upper trough will strengthen and move over California. 850 mb temperatures over the CWA will be cooler as the upper trough approaches the region so expect high temperatures tomorrow to mostly be in the lower to mid 70s.
1132 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 A front will stall just to our north today then lift north as a warm front late today and tonight, providing a slight chance of showers northern areas this morning.
Main moisture axis starts along the Lower Texas Coast and stretches over SE Texas towards Arkansas. Upper level pattern remains rather zonal with an upper level low over the Pacific NW.
Strong but dry arctic cold front entering the northern zones at midday, with north winds gusting over 30 mph near Hays. Ahead of the cold front, strong warming is in progress (already 60 degrees here at the office), with downslope and prefrontal compression doing its thing. Much cooler. Temperatures return to January reality, as NE winds and cold air advection emanate from strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure building into South Dakota. Temperatures will struggle to reach freezing across the NE zones.
Ceilings in the low MVFR or IFR conditions are possible as moisture increases on southerly flow, as well as possible visibility reductions. The higher wind speeds and gusts are expected at KABI and KSJT. With mostly sunny skies and 850mb temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday, highs this afternoon are expected to be in the lower 80s across much of west central Texas, with upper 70s for some of our eastern and southern counties.
but expect MVFR and areas of IFR cigs to develop overnight for all TAF sites ahead of approaching cold front.
230 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2017 Currently across the Tri-State region there is a cold front continuing to push south through the area. Temperatures will drop into the low teens to low 20s over the region tonight and winds will shift slightly at less than 10 mph. The upper level flow shows an approaching low pressure system in the western CONUS. Thursday brings dry conditions as well, with increasing cloud cover during the day with the approaching trough in the western states.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Winds will ease off tonight as a Plains low pressure system fills and loses definition as it tracks to the northeast, allowing the pressure gradient with Northeast Gulf high pressure to relax.
The region remains under a somewhat neutral and stagnant pattern, with southerly flow keeping temperatures hovering on either side of freezing across much of the area. With this moisture being basically trapped in the low levels, expect to see fog form across much of the area once again tonight and linger into Saturday morning. Due to the shallow nature of the cloud deck, will stick with mainly some drizzle/freezing drizzle across the eastern CWA tonight through the day Saturday, with the potential for a switch over to light snow Saturday night as cooler air moves in.
With this low level moisture, light winds, and no changes in the airmass, dense fog is likely to redevelop tonight into early Saturday morning. At this point decided to extend the dense fog advisory for areas along the Buffalo Ridge and portions of northwest Iowa, where stratus on the ground will continue. Profiles support deeper saturation in the low-level combined with decent PVA forcing at 500mb. This layer is less pronounced near the Highway 14 corridor, and may result in a little bit of snow mixed in with the rain. On the backside of this system, there is a trough that sweeps through the area resulting in a wind shift near the surface. The moisture is deepest through the lowest kilometer in southwest MN where a bit of freezing drizzle or drizzle could linger.
An upper low off the Washington coast will continue to bring a moist onshore flow over our area.
835 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 Weak short wave ridge axis over central CO with weak mid level qg descent over much of the cwa this evening. Models have an upper ridge over the CWA overnight with weak southwesterly flow aloft. For pops will go with 0-20%s in the high mountains tonight. For temperatures, Saturday's highs will be a tad cooler than this afternoon's highs.
Some light rain, sleet and freezing rain has mixed in at a few locations. Spotty freezing rain can not be completely ruled out, but will not try to pin point where this precip type may occur as will have to see how surface temps evolve Saturday.
This will keep the snow to liquid ratios very low and there may be areas near the 4 Corners that stay all rain as this pseudo warm front lifts to the north through the early morning hours. only held back from some really impressive amounts by the high liquid content. This region will do better into the day Saturday as the main trough passes through and instability boosts snow rates.
Warm front/coastal trough continues to hug the immediate coast and extends inland a little bit across the northern Coastal Bend.
A continuation of low clouds/fog/areas of light freezing drizzle across mainly central North Dakota is the theme for the short term period. Far western North Dakota will mostly be detached from the worst of the fog and any freezing drizzle threat at this time. The result will be for more of the same with clouds/areas of fog and light freezing drizzle initially. BUFKIT soundings indicate supercooled water droplets in the saturated layer with enough vertical motion for light freezing drizzle. High temperatures Saturday will be similar to Fridays, especially with the low cloud canopy remaining overhead.
601 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 This Evening: Scattered showers & even a couple isolated thunderstorms developed along a weak eastward-moving cold front that is venturing across Southwest KS. Messy surface pattern with broad area of low pressure across the central Plains with a weak low center over sw KS with another over far eastern KS.
This fog should diminish in coverage and intensity from west to east late in the night as the low level flow begins to shift and become westerly.
Surface winds will diminish markedly this evening, then increase again Saturday in advance of a cold front and approaching upper level storm system.
Upper level ridging. will dominate the area as a short wave trough plows aloft the central Gulf Coastal states. High pressure ridging across the waters tonight will maintain southerly winds in the 5 to 15 knots range overnight. Conditions begin to significantly deteriorate as a cold front approaches Sat with increasing winds ahead of it.
Although the low clouds have been lifting all day, the clearing line will progress northeast through the area mostly after sunset.
Models have an upper ridge over the CWA overnight with weak southwesterly flow aloft. For pops will go with 0-20%s in the high mountains tonight. For temperatures, Saturday's highs will be a tad cooler than this afternoon's highs.
Temperatures will rise through the 40s tonight, with high temperatures on Saturday ranging from the lower to upper 50s. Record highs at South Bend and Ft Wayne are in the low to mid 60s.
534 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 The first in a series of upper level waves associated with an active Pacific pattern and general troughing over the Northwest has moved through. Despite this, little has changed as the area remains in a southerly moist advection regime, maintaining the low clouds. Another wave move will across the area tonight, helping to lift a warm front northward and shifting winds to the southwest. This transition will be gradual, from south to north, but should help scour out the low clouds and fog. Another wave will track south of the area Saturday as deeper troughing develops over the center of the country.
Short range models show showers and storms developing over the lower Mississippi Valley and slowly moving northeast overnight.
/issued 327 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/ WV imagery shows an upper trough ejecting NE thru the Central Plains. only to be replaced by a closed low forecast to develop and move/strengthen from the west coast to the Texas/OK Panhandles over the next 24 hours. Very strong westerlies are forecast to round the base of the trough Saturday.
Gusty southwesterly winds will decrease this evening while veering more westerly as cold front nears then moves through the terminals tonight.
This warm flow and warm nearshore water temperatures is keeping may areas in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - The high pressure cell off to our east will maintain light mostly southeast breezes across the area. High pressure to our east will keep light southeast breezes across Florida Keys waters through the overnight period.
Even the height of the above freezing level, AOA 800 mb, remains unchanged at 230z according to aircraft sounding.
114 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Cold front will continue to move east through Middle Tennessee this afternoon with clearing line back along the Mississppi River at early afternoon. High pressure will settle in behind the front tonight and on Thursday bringing a cool down in temps more typical for this time of the year but lots of sun for the last 2 days of the work week.
the upper low associated with the cloud cover that affected the CWA thru now. Downslope westerly flow works into the area as region sits on a brief zonal pattern ahead of next trough coming into the west. Temps as a result will be above normal for many locales with highs ranging in the lower to mid 40s.
1044 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 No change in the overall synoptic weather pattern over the last 24 hours w/ a large and vigorous low pressure system remaining nearly stationary over central Minnesota.
Light precipitation is expected this evening into Thursday as low pressure moves through the state.
Gusty north winds will die out through the afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. /ISSUED 1113 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ High pressure over West Texas will build to the east this afternoon and the tight pressure gradient along the coast will continue to weaken. /ISSUED 507 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Cooler/drier air filtering into SE TX as the cold front finally moves offshore this morning. With the upper trof lagging a bit, clouds will be a bit slower to clear the area.
247 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A crossing cold front will bring another round of rain showers tonight and cooler temperatures the remainder of the week. Showers continue east of Pittsburgh as warmer moist air ascends ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada.
200 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front moves through this evening. Cooler high pressure to end the week. A cold front will push through this evening, bringing an end to the rain. Cooler air moves into the area overnight. Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the work week with slightly below normal temperatures. Most of the area will remain dry, but in the NW flow and with upper trough swinging through, it's possible that the mountains see some light snow showers.
A strong mid level trough passing through will bring an increase in clouds this afternoon as well as usher in a colder airmass. Moisture plume is being shunted eastward a bit more quickly than previously advertised, but upper trofiness and SW mid-level flow may cause a few starts and stops in that process. Will hang on to at least small POPs until around midday, when the low-level flow becomes westerly enough to dry out. Clouds will be slower to clear out as the upper trof axis doesn't swing through until later in the afternoon.
354 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A developing area of low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine tonight into Thursday.
343 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Massive upper level low pressure system continues to spin over the Twin Cities region this afternoon, with areas of light snow wrapping south across the CWA. Accums have been very minimal and this will be the trend heading into the overnight hours as the low pressure system only slowly moves eastward.
Updated tafs for gusty winds across the region with the tight pressure gradient behind the cold front. /17/ Late this morning the cold front was sweeping through the region. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 70s southeast. The recent rain and improved soil moisture may limit most significant cooling, but would not be surprised a good portion of the area at or a few degrees above the freezing mark by early Thursday morning. As the upper trough moves off to the north and east, broad ridging and/or near zonal flow will move into the region as well as high pressure at the surface.
1125 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Early visible satellite photographs show skies are mostly cloudy along the Lower Keys and the surrounding waters, with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Surface wise, a formidable western atlantic ridge axis lies across the central portion of the Florida peninsula, resulting in southeast winds of around 20 knots except 15 to 20 knots on the outer waters of Mainland Monroe and in and around Fort Jefferson National Park. A gradual decelerating low level flow combined with a decaying former cuban land breeze will result in shower cover to diminish appreciably along the Lower keys and the adjacent coastal waters by early this afternoon. Increasing insolation within a southeast trajectory will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s.
250 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 Latest water vapor loop is showing the weak upper level trof continuing to push southeast from the northwest.
400 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front will move east of the area this evening.
1047 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 Northwest flow prevails across the region as a large upper low continues to spin over the upper midwest. A dry pattern is expected region-wide during the next 24h as a weak short wave ridge translates over the fcst area. Max temps today are expected to be in the 30s and 40s across the lower elevations and tens and 20s across most of the valleys and mtns.
Clouds were gradually thinning from west to east as the upper low pressure trough moves through the region. The cooler and drier air is filtering into AR, with current upper 30s to lower 40s over the north, 40s central to around 50 in the south. The cooler airmass will also keep highs today cooler than normal with the upper 40s to 50s expected. Today Through Thursday Night 09z subjective surface analysis indicated the cold front extended from Blytheville, to Hot Springs, to El Dorado.
1052 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Low pressure over the Twin Cities area continues to wrap light snow southward over the eastern CWA, as well as portions of central SD. Wrap around moisture will remain with us for the next few days despite low pressure slowly filling and lifting to the northeast. Continued to mention Snow or Freezing Rain for portions of the Coteau tonight, however again intensity will be too low and it appears ground temperatures too warm for it to be a significant problem, though will have to monitor.
312 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front moves through this evening. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 354 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Stacked upper low pressure system over Minnesota and Wisconsin today, with a broad area of clouds and lingering light precipitation. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s, only rising into the mid 30s tomorrow.
/issued 649 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ For the 30/12Z TAFs, mid level cloud deck around 10Kft continues to blanket all terminal sites this morning but gradual clearing will occur later today from west to east as cooler and drier air mass settles overhead. Gusty northwest winds in the wake of the recent cold front will be around 10-15 kts with higher gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. Speeds will drop off quickly after sunset this evening as high pressure builds in at the surface, allowing winds to become light and variable to near calm under clear skies.
/17/ Late this morning the cold front was sweeping through the region. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 70s southeast. The recent rain and improved soil moisture may limit most significant cooling, but would not be surprised a good portion of the area at or a few degrees above the freezing mark by early Thursday morning. As the upper trough moves off to the north and east, broad ridging and/or near zonal flow will move into the region as well as high pressure at the surface.
235 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 After a brief bout of sunshine earlier this morning, clouds moved in as moisture wrapped around the large low pressure system to the north/northwest. Although the temperatures are cooler, they are relatively close to the climatological normal. The low clouds and low level moisture may result in some flurries/sprinkles, mainly north of a line from Peoria to Bloomington, before midnight. For tomorrow, westerly winds will continue, with clouds remaining in place as the temperatures climb only to the low 40s.
1136 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 High pressure movg into area with sfc winds from wnw-nw around 10 kts.
There will still be a fair amount of mvfr and even ifr flight weather across the Great Valley in an area of moderate to strong lifting ahead of a deep Middle America upper level trough. The moderate intensity showers will end from west to east late this afternoon through the early evening with the cold frontal passage. There is a small chance for a little post frontal light rainfall as some jet energy rides northeast behind the low level boundary. Applied an mvfr ceiling across most of the valley later tonight as cooler air spills across the Cumberland Plateau saturating the lower layer.
High pressure will build across the area this afternoon and tonight, producing gusty westerly surface winds today and light west winds tonight.
332 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 A mid-level trough -- currently situated across the upper/mid MS valley region -- will continue to lift northeastward into southern Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, a cold front has pushed across the entire forecast area and will advance eastward into the southern Appalachians this evening. Latest satellite data indicates that a mid-level cloud deck will erode from w-to-e during the remainder of the afternoon, with clear skies and the advection of cooler/drier air into the region resulting in lows in the mid 30s-around 40. The previously mentioned mid-level trough is predicted to spread east-northeastward into southern Quebec and New England on Thursday- Thursday night.
The large low pressure system to the north/northwest that has maintained control of the weather across the Midwest for the past few days remains in place, providing deep cyclonic flow under a vertically stacked system. Moisture and clouds wrapping all the way around the low will move the stratus into place over Central Illinois today. + A strong cold front has cleared central and southeast Illinois to the east overnight, ushering much cooler but climatologically normal air into the area. A few short wave pivoting around this large low pressure system will keep a fair amount of low clouds around especially north of I-70 Thu and Fri, though light precipitation should stay north of CWA.
217 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 An upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends southward into Texas while another upper trough is moving over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures today are expected to be mostly in the 50s across the area in the wake of a cold front that moved through last night. The upper trough centered over the Midwest moves just to the north of the Great Lakes area while the trough over the Pacific Northwest moves southeastward on Thursday.