Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH GUIDANCE NOW COMING IN COOLER. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON MON NIGHT WITH THE SFC FROPA BY TUES MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHWEST. SATELLITE DATA AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACE THE CENTER OF A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW NEARER TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE 6-8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAN THEY ARE NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MORNING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE. POPS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TRANSPORTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL STICK AROUND INTO MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A APPROACHING TROUGH.
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT WEATHER TO ARIZONA.
352 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CO THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TONIGHT WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 66 TO 69. MEANWHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHS FOR MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS TO AROUND 90 FOR EAST CENTRAL KS BASED ON 850MB TEMP PROGS.
630 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER LAKES IS PROVIDING ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY. THOUGH IT LOOKED LIKE THE BUILDING RIDGE WOULD KEEP PRECIP AT A MINIMUM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NE AZ IS PRODUCING STRONGER SUBSIDENCE. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT SE AT 10-15 MPH. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER INSTABILITY. A WEAK WAVE OFF THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAD PASSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND LOOKS TO BECOME STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT FROM THE UTAH TAVAPUTS EAST INTO THE FLAT TOPS/ELKS/WEST ELKS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALSO AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER OVER THE NORTH WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. LOWS WILL SEE A BIGGER COOL DOWN AS THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THERE IS A RIDGE OFFSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. THE CWA LIES AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
209 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND HEAD EAST BACK OVER THE CWA. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN THE GFS.
OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT W AND NW FOR LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS A COMBINATION OF H7 THETA-E RIDGING AND WEAK S/WVS LEAD TO SCT TSTMS WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR WEST OF THE NM/CO BORDERS AND TRANSITION E/SE INTO THE PANHANDLES.
1123 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A BROAD TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND THE AIR MASS WILL GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS ALG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW VA LIKELY TO FADE W/ LOSS OF HEATING LT THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S INLAND.
THE 591 DAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING MONDAY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST.
Cool nights and breezy mild afternoons are the rule this week as we continue to be affected by polar maritime cold fronts while the higher latitides pattern starts to look more like early fall.
MOST AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WEAK MIXING AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 70S (EVEN WITH SOLAR.
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE/PUBLIC FORECAST MAINLY TO LOWER TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
215 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015 VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH UPPER- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AND BRING THE RETURN OF PCPN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND WEST AND OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES IS UNIFORMLY MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. A PICK UP IN CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IN HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. UPPER LEVEL, NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER THIS HOUR. THAT FEATURE OVER THE BOOTHEEL WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW EASIER STORM DEVELOPMENT.
The upper level high over the Desert Southwest will weaken, while a weak closed low developing along the Texas Gulf coast drifts southwest into deep south Texas.
The highest surface based CAPE values (>2000 j/kg) were in far western Kansas where the highest dewpoints and highest potential temperatures were located.
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 Weak mid/upper lvl trof will be meander across the region during the next 24 to 36 hours.
443 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER LAKES IS PROVIDING ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY. THOUGH IT LOOKED LIKE THE BUILDING RIDGE WOULD KEEP PRECIP AT A MINIMUM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING.
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 Weak mid/upper lvl trof will meander across the region during the next 24 to 36 hours.
BECOMING ISOLATED AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
355 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 Strong forcing associated with upper low near the TX Panhandle region this morning resulting in widespread showers over much of the area. Cold front is currently near or a little west of I-35 and is slowly moving east. As the upper low lifts northeast tonight the center will pass close to northeast OK. Some showers will linger through the evening as the low passes by, and a clap or two of thunder cannot be ruled out with steeper mid level lapse rates present.
A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT. WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND WE START TO LOSE THE ICE CLOUD ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
GUSTY COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN BORDER ALLOWING.
320 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE REGION WHILE SLOWING DOWN THROUGH NERN FL BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
CURRENTLY ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER US. OUR BIGGEST FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS SYSTEM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RAMP UP FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY MAKE THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS VERY WINDY, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT I CURRENTLY THINK THOSE AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL DUE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BEHIND COLD FRONT SKIES CLEAR BUT LOWS STILL IN THE MILD 40S.
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT OUT OF TEXAS INTO MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED BY LATE TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS OUT OF TEXAS WHICH WILL PINCH OFF THE REALLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR KEEPING IT NEAR THE GULF COAST. MODELS SHOW NO CAPE OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT/LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE MONDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER LOW. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED THE CWA OFF TO THE EAST WHICH HAS HELPED TO PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP ON THE CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT THAT SAGGED INTO THE NWRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES LATE THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN BEFORE BECOMING INDISTINGUISHABLE/WASHING OUT. 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 C WHICH IS EVIDENT BY FREEZING SFC TEMPS AT FRIONA AND DIMMITT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
EXTREME DYNAMICS RELEGATED WELL SW-W ON SUNDAY AS NM/TEXAS PANHANDLE VORTEX EMBARKS ON NNEWD LIFTOUT AS NEXT TROF PRESSES INTO WESTERN COAST. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FORCES A STRONG FRONTAL OCCLUSION THROUGH. POST-FRONTAL CAA AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER DEEP/MATURE CYCLONE WILL ENSURE A WINDY DAY AND FALLING TEMPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVED GRADUALLY EAST THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF RETURN FLOW. LOW PRESSURE HAD CLOSED OFF OVER NORTHWESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BACKING THE UPPER WINDS FROM NORTH TO WEST AND BRINGING STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO THE SLOPES. SUNDAY NIGHT THE NEXT COLDER NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE TROUGH CLOSES OVER NE UTAH WITH 95KT JET SUPPORT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING DYNAMICAL LIFT.
125 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE RAIN. AND WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY THAN SUNDAY.
A storm system centered over the High Plains was forcing Gulf moisture and warmth into the region, leading to large clusters of convection.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS TAKEN HOLD. RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AT 850MB AND 500MB STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
A STRONG LINE OF STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND 40-45 MPH AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 20 DEGREES IN ABOUT 10-15 MINUTES FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP CLEAR OUT SKIES AND PROVIDE A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT TO WARM INTO THE 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HILL COUNTRY. A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.
1257 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE A MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES ON THE ORDER OF ONLY 500-600 J/KG OFF THE CAPROCK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS SET TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AS IT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WITH THE IMPRESSIVE 25H JET OF 150 KNOTS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WAS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY FILL IN ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED COTULLA IN THE PAST HOUR. THEN MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS A BIT STRONGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST AS COLD FRONT IMPACTS THIS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
Upper pattern is quite amplified with a deep closed low cranking out snow over the Land of Enchantment, and a downstream ridge along the southeast coast. Even though the low-level wind fields are not quite as robust, we're still seeing 40-50 kt at the top of the mixed layer and T/Td profiles supportive of isolated to scattered convective showers.
Southeasterly flow will increase some today in advance of an approaching cold front with breezy conditions at times this afternoon.
Precipitation and strong southerly winds will increase Sunday as a strong cold front sweeps southward.
1137 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES MONDAY FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MONITORING LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING NEAR THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. TOMORROW ENTIRE AREA WILL BE NEAR RECORD TEMPS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
UPPER TO MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SITS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WITH THE RIDGING OVERHEAD. WITH HIGHS TODAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S. PROPELLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP THE CWA FREE FROM MOST SNOWFALL.
1239 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS.
333 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THIS LOW, AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL EFFECT A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, FIRST BY CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA, CAUSING THE WIND TO INCREASE. IT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 80S. MID-ATLANTIC ON SUN WILL BREAK DOWN AND RETREAT SEAWARD ON MON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. EAST COAST RIDGING SHIFTING E AND DAMPENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SE-SW TO ASSUME PRE-FRONTAL POSTURE AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE FL PANHANDLE. TUE WILL BEGIN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FL WITH AN EVER-SLOWING ADVANCE. OLD AND DIFUSE BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT AND LIFT N BACK TO PANHANDLE AS WARM FRONT WED INTO THU. CONTINUED WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 80S. NEXT COLD FRONT KNOCKS ON DOOR BY FRI AND MORE PURPOSED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA SAT.
Will also trim PoPs down as only scattered showers are expected as the ua trough moves overhead. The mountains will still be subject to stronger winds aloft mixing down overnight, so the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains will continue. High winds are ongoing in the GDP Mtns and the high wind watch for Davis Mtns has been upgrade to a warning and will remain in effect thru Sunday. Question for Sunday is whether a wind advisory will be needed? Based on MSLP gradient of 4mb/70nm-100nm being co-located with 40-50kt 85h winds from the Upper to Lower Trans Pecos and subsidence on back side of trof this is a good set-up for a very windy day. It will be noticeably cooler all areas Sunday.
409 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING US ANOTHER UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER DAY. A COLD FRONT SPIRALING AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. VALLEYS HAVE BEEN DECOUPLING FROM THE FLOW AND COOLING DOWN MUCH MORE THAN RIDGES ON RECENT NIGHTS.
941 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 A storm system tonight through Sunday night will bring snow accumulations for all but the lower elevations of Central Washington.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE.
There continues to be some notable differences in guidance for Sunday night, particularly with the low to mid level atmosphere. The NAM remains to be the cold outlier, roughly 2-3C cooler than the GFS around 850mb, with even SREF guidance showing it to be on the cold end, and the ECMWF between though closer to the GFS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN FREE DAY AS THE RIDGE AT 850MB AND 500MB CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. PROMOTING A DECAY IN THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FOCUS WILL TURN TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
TODAY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
Widespread rain showers continue to lift north northeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening in response to a wave moving through New Mexico and a cold front located over Western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. additional rain showers and possible thunderstorms will move into the CWA from the west with the approaching cold front. temps this evening have been running about 15-20 degrees cooler compared to ahead of the front.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE FOUR CORNERS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL/ERN WY. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL SD INTO THE EVNG AS POCKET OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTENS UP. SNOWFALL WILL END ACROSS SCNTRL SD BY SUN MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
A SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTER OF OKLAHOMA. SEPARATING MILD AND HUMID AIR TO THE EAST FROM MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE WEST. THE COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. LATEST MODELS RAISE THE SNOW LEVEL TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING IT TO VALLEY FLOORS AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE STORM/S COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THEN DECREASE LATER SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
952 PM MST SAT DEC 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY HAS ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED. AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING THIS RAIN TO AN END.
WITH WARM FRONT NOW STARTING TO MAKE A MOVE NORTH.
141 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TODAY.
THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
108 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. A POTENT COLD FRONT CONTAINING AMPLE MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY.
411 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING US ANOTHER UNUSUALLY WARM DECEMBER DAY. A COLD FRONT SPIRALING AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. VALLEYS HAVE BEEN DECOUPLING FROM THE FLOW AND COOLING DOWN MUCH MORE THAN RIDGES ON RECENT NIGHTS. UPPER LEVEL WISE ACROSS THE CONUS THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS BOTH THE GREAT LAKES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SQUEEZED IN THE MIDDLE.
GUSTS OF 20-26KT ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
700MB WINDS BEGIN PICKING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NEVADA.