Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
634 PM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Above normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies will persist one more day before a cold front moves into the area with showers and thunderstorms for mid-week. High pressure will continue to dominate central and southeast Illinois through Tuesday. A deep cut-off low currently over the Pacific Northwest will push eastward over the next few days.
Low temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 50s in most locations, except some upper 40s across the northern Nature coast. Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight as high pressure remains in control.
Focus will then shift to the approaching low pressure system and associated precipitation.
800 PM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure centered south of the region will result in a continuation of dry and warm conditions. A slow moving cold front will bring an increasing chance of rain for mid to late week. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 50s. Period begins with a high amplitude upper ridge centered over Ohio, while a deepening low pressure system approaches from the west.
High pressure over the southeast CONUS continues to flex its muscles over the region, so another pleasant spring day is underway.
938 PM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States, as a weak stationary front stretches from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
Rain has changed over to snow a bit sooner than expected in the lower Snake Plain, namely around Pocatello. Hopefully warm ground temperatures can limit the impact to area roadways but some tricky travel is nevertheless possible especially across the higher terrain of the eastern Highlands.
This corresponds to an area of increasing mid-level moisture on south/southwesterly flow behind the eastward moving ridge.
Boundary layer southerly winds will produce another night with large min temperature differences between the ridge tops and lower valleys. Surface and upper ridging will produce quiet weather conditions with calm winds at night. Some high/mid level clouds will spill over the upper ridge. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 77 53 79 59 / 0 0 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 75 52 78 58 / 0 0 0 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 48 75 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 73 48 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 20.
842 PM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 No changes made to forecast as "Chamber of Commerce" weather continues through Tuesday with temps fairly close to early April normals under clear skies tonight with lows in the mid/upper 40s inland and lower/middle 50s along the Atlc Coast and under Sunny skies on Tuesday with highs reaching the lower 80s inland and mid/upper 70s along the Atlc Coast.
812 PM MDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Satellite pictures are showing Tuesday's upper closed low over southwestern/south central Idaho at this time. That's it! A rather compact upper level low now over southwest Idaho will drift east/southeast across far northern Utah tonight, and then across northern Colorado on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front was currently pushing south through eastern Wyoming. Deeper moisture ahead of the upper level low will begin to increase across the mountains by Tuesday morning, with showers becoming more numerous, but most widespread shower coverage holds off til afternoon.
114 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week. A cold front will approach the area near the end of the week. High pressure will remain across the region tonight. Models are showing the ridging over the southeast building at mid- and upper-levels Tuesday into Wednesday. This will be accompanied by above average high temperatures in the low- to mid- 80s each day as well as sunny skies. Coastal locations will see slightly cooler temperatures due to marine influences and the sea breeze. Temperatures Tuesday night should be in the low-50s followed by mid-50s Wednesday night.
deepening into a closed upper low by Wed morning. Best POPs will be seen Wed afternoon and evening as a cold front surges east across the state. Expect POPs to decrease from west to east by late Wed night as the cold front moves east of AR. Some strong to SVR storms will be possible Wed afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front. A tornado threat will also exist late Wed afternoon and early evening where the low level SHR will be maximized as the LLJ lifts NE across portions of AR. given the fairly rapid movement of this cold front. Ongoing cloud cover could limit SFC based instability somewhat as temps may remain a few deg cooler than previously thought.
This corresponds to an area of increasing mid-level moisture on south/southwesterly flow behind the eastward moving ridge. As the upper low tracks east into Wednesday, it continues to broaden and deepen, eventually occluding in the vicinity of the Missouri and Iowa border. Moisture is drawn northward out of the gulf as surface and mid-level ridging moves east over Florida, in conjunction with the southwest flow running ahead of the upper level low and surface front. Much cooler air wrap in behind the system, drawing in 850mb air that is in the realm of 0C to -5C.
This instability is the result of the low level jet this evening. The short term model blend came in cooler Tuesday and Tuesday night pushing the rain-snow line as far east as highway 83 Tuesday night.
350 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states with a weak stationary front across the area. Another area of low pressure approaches from the west later in the week. Meanwhile, low pressure is off the NE coast. Despite some of the high res guidance trying to show some light rain this morning, the low levels are dry as advertised with dewpoint depressions of 10-15 degrees, so outside of an isolated sprinkle not much is expected.
The upper ridge will break down today as the upper low advances into the Rockies.
117 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure centered south of the region will result in a continuation of dry and warm conditions. A slow moving cold front will bring an increasing chance of rain for mid to late week. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 50s. Period begins with a high amplitude upper ridge centered over Ohio, while a deepening low pressure system approaches from the west. Latest model blend suggests a later onset of showers as the slow moving low encounters the upper ridge, with dry weather lasting through midday Wednesday, followed by a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in western counties Wednesday afternoon.
A mid-level ridge will advance slowly eastward across the TN Valley region overnight, with tranquil weather conditions expected to persist through Tuesday morning. Increasing ridging will continue the warming trend as high temperatures peak in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing southerly flow will transport warm, moist Gulf air into the Southeast, raising dew points from the low 50s on Tuesday into the upper 50s by Wednesday and increasing cloud cover.
It will be cooler today, with all areas staying in the 50s. Summary An upper level ridge near 250mb continues to move east, while a cut off moves across the central plains.
340 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will gradually build into the region over the next few days and bring relatively quiet weather to the North Country. Upper low that was just south of Nova Scotia this time last night has moved southward and taken the stronger low level flow with it. Dry weather is expected for the entire area tonight for Wednesday as well as upper ridging starts to slowly build into the area. High temperatures will be several degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
GOES-16 Satellite trends place a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast United States. A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the Mid-South tonight into Tuesday. Surface dewpoints will gradually begin to rise Tuesday into Tuesday night as the ridge of high pressure begins to move east. Short term models are in general agreement with an upper level low moving from the Rockies/Central Plains and into portions of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valleys late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with a cold front at the surface moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley during this timeframe.
An upper level low pressure system will approach the region from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday, forcing our next round of showers and thunderstorms.
316 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore on Wednesday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the week as an upper level trough and cold front move into the region. An upper ridge extending from the Ohio Valley through the Deep South will move east into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians tonight. Surface and H850 mb ridge centered over FL and extending into the Tennessee Valley will produce a northwest downslope flow today. We can expect sunny skies with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. mostly in the lower 50s. Deep trough will cutoff over the central US Wednesday and begin to slowly approach the area Wednesday. Near full solar insolation along with a strengthening upper ridge will lead to temperatures well above normal.
An upper low over the Pac NW will move across the Rockies and into the central Plains over the next 24-36 hrs, where a storm system will develop and track NEward. This will push the upper ridge eastward Tuesday. Southerly flow will carry warmer air and moisture to the state, destabilizing the region ahead of an approaching cold front. A low level jet will set up from SW to NE across the state as the cold front moves through Wednesday as well.
A storm system with an upper low to the south of the forecast area will bring some clouds over the southern half of the region. Temperatures will warm today and Wednesday with more sun and the upper low moving to the east.
The arrival of a cold front on Wednesday will usher in a cooler and breezy weather pattern.
An upper trof meanwhile advances from the northwestern states towards the Plains. The upper trof begins to take on a negative tilt while traversing the Plains through Wednesday, and the upper ridge over the eastern states becomes oriented from the eastern Great Lakes into the extreme southeast states. Lows tonight range from the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s at the coast.
For tonight, a warm front will continue to lift northward across northern Wisconsin. An area of low pressure along with a cold front, and weak upper level disturbance across Minnesota will head east into the state late tonight. There will be a lull or break in the activity until afternoon when activity fires up along the cold front that will be sagging south during the day. High temperatures will range from around 60 north to the lower to middle 70s south.
Chances for widespread rain arrive late in the week with approaching low pressure. Upper ridging will strengthen over the region Tuesday into Wednesday as a closed low persists off the New England coast and a trough deepens over the Rockies. Increasing subsidence with the approaching ridge axis will dampen and shift rain chances east Wednesday. Rain chances will increase through the end of the week as a deepening Midwest low pushes the ridge east and promotes greater moist advection, ascent across the region.
131 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 A frontal boundary will linger across the area through Wednesday before being pushed north as a low pressure system approaches from the Upper Midwest.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low will track east across Colorado today and into Kansas by tomorrow morning. Temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 80s for most of the area this afternoon, except west of the dryline, where highs should climb into the lower 90s. For tonight, a weak cold front will work its way south across the northern half of the forecast area late tonight.
221 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Short Term (Today and Wednesday): Deep ridging will prevail resulting in quiet/dry conditions.
119 AM MST Tue Apr 6 2021 Warm temperatures continue today with highs across the lower deserts near 90 degrees. Highs will rebound back into the lower and middle 90s during the latter half of the week with no chance of rain in the forecast period. Although this feature is well removed from the CWA a weak trough axis associated with this trough is currently sweeping through the area, leading to a reduction in upper level heights compared to the last few days. Over the next day as the system moves east, somewhat cooler air will filter in, leading to a minimal decline in temperatures. High temperatures will be near 90 degrees today across the lower deserts.
253 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will gradually build into the region over the next few days and bring relatively quiet weather to the North Country. Winds will weaken after 7 pm as surface and upper level ridges slide eastward towards our area. Will continue to see some clouds move into our area from the east as upper level low off to our east continues to spread some moisture back into our region. Will see increasing sunniness as upper level low finally starts to move east and away from our area. Highs on Tue should be just slightly warmer than today, mainly mid to upper 50s.
Boundary layer southerly winds will produce another night with large min temperature differences between the ridge tops and lower valleys. High pressure will result in mostly clear skies throughout the period and VFR conditions likely at all sites. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 53 79 59 75 / 0 0 10 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 52 78 58 73 / 0 0 10 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 75 50 77 57 72 / 0 0 10 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 48 76 53 73 / 0 0 0 20 80.
310 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure remains over the Southeastern United States this morning with upper ridging occurring aloft. An upper level low pressure system will move from the Rockies into the Central Plains by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front. The system will be occluding as the cold front begins to push into the Mid-South, pinching off the instability.
Temperatures will reach near 80 degrees today with mostly sunny skies, so a beautiful day is ahead for the Florida Keys! An area of high pressure currently off the east coast of Florida will remain there for the next few days, keeping our winds generally from the east. As the high pressure slowly slides to the southeast, our winds will veer to the southeast. The Florida Keys will remain under the influence of high pressure through the latter half of the week, and rain chances will be near nil. The low level inversion that has been in place the past few days will slowly break down at the beginning of the weekend. From synopsis, A high pressure system centered off the east coast of Florida will shift southeastward today through Wednesday.
The pattern will trend wetter and seasonably cooler from late week into the weekend. Lows tonight will be a few to several degrees warmer in most places ranging from the mid/upper 30s in the northeast zones to the upper 40s in the Laurel Highlands. Warm front in the Ohio Valley pivots into the western Alleghenies by Tuesday afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the dry line/cold front across west-central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon/evening with this activity spreading through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The shower and thunderstorms are forecast to end by early Wednesday afternoon as the responsible cold front moves east of the area. An increase in the fire weather danger is possible Wednesday afternoon behind the cold front as gusty west-northwest winds usher drier air into portions of eastern Oklahoma.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Low pressure develops across the Plains, strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast. A dryline is expected to work east across the CWA Wednesday afternoon, dropping RH values into the teens and boosting temperatures into the upper 90s and just over 100 degrees across portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, with low to mid 90s across the low to mid RGV.
A similar situation will follow for Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts east and heights begin to fall but most of the clouds and rain will be off to our west, closer to the upper low.
338 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will remain nearly stationary through today and then move southeast Wednesday.
The pattern will trend wetter and seasonably cooler from late week into the weekend. Elsewhere, surface ridging and associated dry air should ensure a mostly sunny and dry Tuesday across the eastern part of the forecast area today. Mixing down ensemble mean 850mb temps yields expected highs ranging from the low 70s over roughly the southwest half of the forecast area, to the low 60s over the mountains north and east of KIPT.
Today Currently, mid/upper ridging is centered over the eastern Great Plains with a closed low moving into the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered over Florida with broad low pressure in the Rockies. In the near-term, ridging builds in overhead with high pressure remaining in control. This could raise fire weather concern slightly, but winds will be light, evidenced by flow in the lower levels of 10kts or less. With high pressure in place and these considerations, mostly clear and seasonally mild conditions will continue.
317 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Mild conditions are currently occurring across the area early this morning, as temperatures are in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area today ahead of the low. Another warm day is on tap for day, with highs expected to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Also, overnight as the upper level low moves into the plains, the cap for an elevated lifted parcel will begin to weaken across the area. As the upper level low moves across the plains a front will move east across the area. The front should be around the Highway 65 corridor by mid-day Wednesday.
239 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 The mid-state will squeak out one more dry day today as SFC/LL high pressure and weak upper ridging slowly break down. Additionally, fairly deep ML/UL trough will remain across the eastern US the next bunch of days. Showers will be minimal most of Thu trough Fri, but a SFC wave and more favorable upper support will accompany the front on Sat, thus we will see a another big increase in shower/storm activity late Fri night/Sat.
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States, as a weak stationary front stretches from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
Dewpoints have risen through the lower to mid 50s and are helping keep humidity values at peak heating above 35 if not above 40 percent. The day Wednesday, appears in all likelihood as the wet day in our week, as the large occluding low pressure will rotate a band of moderate rain and thunderstorms through the entire CWA from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Cold front pushes across the eastern half of the CWA on Wednesday.
Expecting a slightly warmer day as a result with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area with lows dropping down into the low to mid 50s. This low sets up the CWA with SW flow aloft and at the surface, depending on strength of moisture advection, could be the first reprieve from the fire danger we've been experience under the stacked high setup.
Currently, it looks like a layer of warm-dry mid-level advection will sweep east ahead of the trough tonight into Tuesday, providing a bit of a cap across the Central Plains for most, if not all of, the daylight hours of Tuesday.
A average spring cold front continues to move southeast this afternoon and is approaching Highway 50. Winds look to diminish tonight as a low amplitude ridge moves overhead. Temperatures will rebound Tuesday into Wednesday under the ridge with highs a few degrees above average. Winds aloft under the ridge will also be quite light so expect light winds at the surface.
Windy conditions will develop through the morning area-wide, as low pressure approaches from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight as the cold front associated with the low pressure pushes through the area. If anything were to develop ahead of the cold front, earlier in the overnight, instability and shear would support a greater severe weather threat than later in the night.
An upper low is spinning just north of Salt Lake City early this morning, with persistent downstream ridging into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. By Wednesday morning, the upper ridge axis will be east of our CWA as the Central Plains low pressure system edges eastward toward the MS Valley.
At low levels, a surface ridging is in place to the east and a developing low pressure system is located across eastern Colorado. The low level jet is forecast to remain in place today and this evening creating breezy to occasionally windy conditions with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Highs will range from the mid 80s across the Hill Country and east of Highway 281 with temperatures reaching the lower 90s over locations west of Highway 281 and especially along the Rio Grande. The above mentioned low pressure system is forecast to push across the Southern Plains and then into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.
A cold trough will continue to move across the forecast area tonight bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions across Utah and southwest Wyoming. High pressure returns shortly after the storm pushes through the area on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to warm back to above average levels by Wednesday. The upper low is noted on satellite imagery over south-central Idaho this evening. Ahead of this low, Utah is under a cyclonic west to southwest flow aloft. The associated cold front pushed through much of northern and west-central Utah earlier today and made its presence known with gusts over 40 mph and reduced visibilities due to blowing dust. Winds subsided along the Wasatch Front as precipitation filled in earlier this evening, while gusts 30-45 mph remain in place across west-central Utah and near the cold front.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic Waters will keep the weather dry over South Florida tonight keeping the weather dry. The easterly wind speed will also continue to decrease tonight over the area due to the high over the Western Atlantic waters. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will be allowed to expired for the east coast beaches this evening and replace with a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. Deep layer ridging will prevail through tomorrow, resulting in partly cloudy skies and showers remaining primarily offshore. High pressure is forecast to keep the weather quiet into the weekend.
322 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure through tonight. Leaned toward higher end of guidance envelop for high temperatures today and toward the lower end in the valleys for lows tonight. However, the low level west to northwest flow may transport enough moisture atop the mixing layer to reintroduce cloud across the north overnight tonight. Upper ridge will strengthen over the area on Wednesday, with very warm temperatures, and for the most part dry conditions.
310 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure through Tuesday. A surface col of high pressure will prevail through the period with dry and above seasonable temperatures. Upper ridge will strengthen over the area on Wednesday, with very warm temperatures, and for the most part dry conditions.
Winds from the south will continue to very gradually pick up overnight as upper-level ridging weakens, and the next trough is on its way from the Intermountain West.