Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
253 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 A significant change in the weather pattern will develop by Friday as an upper level low pressure system tracks from the west Coast and stalls across the southern Rockies through the weekend. By Friday the upper low is forecast to dig south to Arizona by late in the day. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for the cap to erode by late Friday afternoon across the northern and central Permian Basin due to moisture advection and large scale lift increasing ahead of the upper low.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY QUIET WEATHER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. 12Z MODELS MAINTAINED A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS WISCONSIN. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING WITH A WARMER AIR MASS AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY MIXED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY. BUT THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY.
156 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NE WILL KEEP THE SKIES SUNNY AND THE WINDS FROM THE NE. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. AS UPPER LOW OVER MT WEAKENS. ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL STALL THERE. WITH COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND.
THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR CWA AND IS KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE RETURN OF LOW END SHOWER CHANCES.
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI DETACHED FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM. THE TIMING OF THESE CHANGES IS THE CHALLENGE AND HAVE HANDLED THE LOWEST CIGS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
337 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER BASIN. AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND FURTHER INTO THE GULF SOUTH REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST U. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH RATHER BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE HIGH SIDE.
526 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
Light southeast winds overnight will become gusty mid morning Friday as a lee trough develops in West Texas. High clouds will be increasing Friday afternoon as an upper low develops in the Southwest United States. Highs Friday afternoon will be in the lower 80s. Strong upper level low will deepen and strengthen as it moves into Arizona by Friday evening and then gets stuck over the New Mexico/Arizona line through the weekend.
342 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
258 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN AR. UPPER LOW IS FCST TO CONTINUE EWD AS ANOTHER VERY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO AZ/NM BY THE WEEKEND.
We'll start off Friday with somewhat of a Rex Block pattern with a developing upper level ridge to the north and the persistent upper level low to the south. This upper level low should continue to move southeastward, and we'll probably see a gradient of cloudiness across the region.
355 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
556 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 Extensive mid and upper level clouds covered some, but not all of the area this afternoon as as an upper level low continued to move east over ne AR. An upper level blocking pattern develops over the CONUS Friday night and on into the weekend. Overall chances for ocnl/periodic showers/tstms will then continue Mon-Thu as the upper level low shifts slowly east. The overall best chances for rain may not occur until the upper low is moving into eastern KS and MO late Tue into Wed/Thu. Upper low still slowly tracking east across northern Arkansas.
635 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A COASTAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
658 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
447 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
500 MB RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN PLACE OVER TX AND NORTHEAST MEX THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM TEMPS AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE RGV. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE E TO SE STARTING TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
327 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
549 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
157 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
330 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
300 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 High pressure expected to hold over eastern Canada with a ridge axis extending southwest through the south-central Plains tonight bringing another quiet night to the forecast area. After that, upper level ridging is forecast to strengthen over the Midwest as a deep storm system shifts east into the southern Rockies over the weekend.
207 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
THIS IS WHERE THINGS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE WHILE MORE COLD AIR STREAMS IN ALOFT AS THE 500 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH SUN TO FINALLY DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS DONE MOST OF ITS DAMAGE. SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY LATE FRI MORNING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE FRI NIGHT THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION FALLS STRONGLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES A SLOW EASTWARD TREK AWAY FROM THE GEM STATE.
330 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 Extensive mid and upper level clouds covered some, but not all of the area this afternoon as as an upper level low continued to move east over ne AR. An upper level blocking pattern develops over the CONUS Friday night and on into the weekend. Overall chances for ocnl/periodic showers/tstms will then continue Mon-Thu as the upper level low shifts slowly east. The overall best chances for rain may not occur until the upper low is moving into eastern KS and MO late Tue into Wed/Thu. Low pressure moving across northern Arkansas will allow for cloud cover to impact the Ozarks through Friday.
DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE THAN OUT WEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FROM SODAK INTO NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LEVELING AS THE OVERALL TREND OF CLOUDINESS AND COOLER EASTERLY FLOW FROM GEORGIA CONTINUES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARBY UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING/POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS CURRENTLY LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE I BUMPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST OF MADISON WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
Wvapor showed the upper low center over scntrl MO. Shower chances will continue tonight into Friday morning as the upper low center passes just to our south.
221 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 A large upper level low will amplify and then close off over the Intermountain west over the next several days. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in how quickly the upper low will move eastward and therefore how far west and how persistent the heavy rain will be.
659 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
1208 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 MEANDERING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE. SO AT THIS POINT HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW QPF FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
603 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
High pressure will build in across the area tonight through the weekend, allowing for dry weather and a warming trend in temperatures. Fast-moving cold front that swept thru the area overnight has shifted southeast out of the area. High pressure will build in tonight and remain in control of the area through the weekend.
307 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. BUT THE LOWER BRULE AREA IS ALWAYS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND IT WILL BE MONITORED.
The pesky upper low will persist along the Mississippi River just south of the forecast area through Friday but precipitation probabilities continue to decrease as the high to our northeast strengthens and retrogrades back over the area. As the high moves over us temperatures will start a warming trend while dewpoints decline with the drier air.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER LOW THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE PLAINS.
332 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 THE UPPER LOW IS STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SHIFT TO THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
QUIET NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN CANADA. WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING HANGING ON AS LOW PRESSURE GETS MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS STATES. UPPER LOWS IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL ANCHOR A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK. THE HEART OF THE CORRESPONDING RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
216 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 1002 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ UPPER LOW SEEN CHURNING OVER ARKANSAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS AND INCREASING CLOUDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FRI WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO WARMER.
1225 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 An upper level low is situated over northwestern Arkansas at this time with mid and high level cloudiness across the entire CWA. This low is expected to slowly meander across northern Arkansas through tonight. The low over Arkansas will make its way into the southeastern US on Friday and help set up a blocking pattern with an upper level high over the Great Lakes. The next upper low.
233 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONTD WARMING XPCD THIS PD IN ASSOCN/W SHARPENING LL THERMAL RIDGE UNDER BLDG RIDGE ALOFT ACRS THE LAKES. STEADY EXPANSION OF LL THERMAL RIDGE ALG W/MID APRIL FULL INSOLATION WILL FVR WARMEST BOUND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH MON W/INCREMENTAL POSITIVE CHGS WARRANTED TO EXISTING TEMP GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE PD. A BIT LTR TREND NOTED W/WEAK BACKDOOR CDFNT DROPPING THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES LATE MON AS SHARP UPR TROUGH DVLPS OVR SE CANADA. WHILE SOME EROSION OF LL THERMAL TROUGH XPCD TUE INTO WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WINDS GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
251 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 COURTESY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS. THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. KEPT THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALSO LEANED TO THE COOLER NAM AND SUPERBLEND REGARDING HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY. WILL BECOME A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SITUATED INSIDE THE LARGER RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS BLANKETED WITH CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
306 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK LOW IN COLORADO. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
440 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MIDWEST AND UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MAN/SASK BORDER. UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHWEST OR COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION BY SAT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO CENTER OF UPPER LOW.
446 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL START INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS STEADILY TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX FRIDAY AS A 500MB LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES.
349 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
IN FACT POPS TOMORROW MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BUT GIVEN THE COVERAGE IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP WILL CARRY THE HIGHER POPS.
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARKANSAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD.
145 PM PDT THU APR 14 2016 GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS GREAT BASIN.
107 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION DIGGING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA. MODELS HAVE A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE IN/DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MID DAY FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH 30-50% POPS FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS FROM 06-12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND THEN STALLS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
257 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 LONGWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS UNDERWAY AS HEIGHT FALLS INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL STAGNATE BENEATH THE RIDGE.
307 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
104 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FINDS MICHIGAN IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND (WITH ANTICYCLONIC RIDGING INTO THE UPPER LAKES). COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON WITH A LAKE-BREEZE ENHANCED EASTERLY WIND. WITH WHAT HAD BEEN PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES CENTERED TROUGHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. BEING REPLACED BY STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGING. WITH OVERHEAD RIDGING SECURING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH INTERIOR AREAS LIKELY DROPPING A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.
FAR OFF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS HOLDING STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WEAK TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.
134 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
232 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
252 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR KMBG. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR KEVV WHILE A COLD FRONT RAN FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX DOWN AND RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
337 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NE TO THE E/SE SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
1035 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 WINDS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OKLAHOMA TOMORROW MORNING.
316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EXTENSION WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR OMAHA. RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 60S AT GALLIANO. THE COOLER LOCATIONS ARE ALSO THE ONES SEEING A BIT OF FOG.
Lee troughing with low level thermal ridging will continue to be a fixture through Saturday resulting in much above normal temperatures and no precipitation despite considerable cloudiness.
1015 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA ARE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. AS RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD. AND LIGHTER WINDS/COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER.
/ISSUED 1007 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016/ LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN US RESULTING IN A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURE FCST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LOOKS TO SLIDE DOWN THE EAST COAST AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST.
947 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016 Showery, breezy, and cooler conditions will continue tonight. High pressure this weekend will likely bring a return to mild weather and less wind.
THE PRESSURE-RISE COMPONENT WILL ENCOURAGE THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NRN PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM 19/06Z-19/18Z WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABLY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIST. ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
936 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016 THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO A KGUC TO KDRO LINE BY 9 PM. LATEST VWP FROM THE KGJX INDICATED WINDS WERE DOWN TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER GATE. DROPPED ALL WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO A KLXV-20W KCEZ LINE BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THAT AT 2PM HAD MOVED INTO NORTHEAST UT. UDOT WEBCAMS ALONG 191 INDICATED SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE EASTERN UINTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER MOST PLACES AS COMPARED TO TODAY'S.
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TODAY AND THE WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.