Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS WAS MUCH WEAKER TODAY AND THUS ALLOWED MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED STORMS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN U. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH SOUTH THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 06Z TO 10Z TIMEFRAME WITH SOME RETURN FLOW PICKING UP IN THE EARLY MORNING. WITH HIGH RES MODELS SLIGHTLY COOLER. SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE DROPS OVER THE CWA BY 06Z SUN. ALLOWING TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 74 54 73 / 70 20 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 69 52 70 / 80 50 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 69 53 71 / 80 30 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 70 50 68 / 80 70 30 10.
A LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST/NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES.
914 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY.
Instability is on the low side tonight, especially inland and thus have cut back on the mention of thunderstorms to isolated to scattered overnight.
/ISSUED 402 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ Cooler and drier air is beginning to filter into the area from the north behind a cold front that moved acros the area overnight and this morning. Increasing southerly winds and upper ridging taking hold over the southern U. Rain chances look minimal through most of the week, but may increase slightly at the very end of the forecast period as a cold front approaches from the north.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 14 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW. GREENVILLE WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. SO TWEAKED THE LOWS ACROSS THE DELTA A LITTLE. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
I'm not really confident on complete clearing, but there should be enough that it gets down well into the low to mid 50s. Warmest readings will be along the Colorado/Kansas border with cooler temperatures expected closer to the retreating airmass. There could be a repeat of the high based Accas type showers but again I doubt anything reaches the ground.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SW ACROSS REGION AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF US AND PACIFIC TROFS MOVES TOWARD WEST COAST DURING PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP LATE IN WEEK WITH STRONGER OF THE PACIFIC TROFS MOVES TOWARD STATE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BRINGS IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMP.
620 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
634 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 Cooler and drier Canadian air mass was moving in from the north today behind the strong cold front which brought showers and thunderstorms to the region last night. Surface dew points were in the lower 60s across far southern MO, but some upper 40s dew points were beginning to push into central MO. Will continue to see the cooler and drier air mass push into the area tonight with a clear sky and diminishing surface wind after sunset. With the relatively warm lake temperatures and cool air mass tonight, we might get some fog developing along the low lying areas and near lakes and streams overnight and have highlighted these areas in the grids and in the HWO for tonight.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS RETURNS SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTH.
MAY SEE A FEW CUMULUS AGAIN ALONG WITH A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD STEAMING IN OVER THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.
542 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED ONSLAUGHT OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE LINDA PUSHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND IN RESPONSE.
Large upper trof will deepen over the eastern conus next 36 hours, then move east, with a transition from zonal to SW flow expected late in the weekend as the trof moves east.
WARM WX WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
47 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT STILL POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER SATURDAY MORNING. WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT COOLER FROM EARLIER RAIN.
A SFC COLD FRONT SEPARATING A CP AIRMASS FROM A MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN TN. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT THE UPPER WAVE. WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER/COOLER AIR IS STILL BACK IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND WINDS NOT PICKING UP YET AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. TEMPS WERE QUICK TO FALL WITH THE RAIN AND FRONT PASSING THROUGH BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO STAY IN THE LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT ON THE TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE LOW CIGS/VIS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT UNTIL STRONGER MIXING OCCURS SAT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
937 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. WARMER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THUS A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
609 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 Cold front has passed well east of Illinois this afternoon: however, a broken line of showers has formed well behind the boundary across portions of central and east-central Illinois, generally along/east of a Hoopeston to Taylorville line. In addition, as upper low digs southward into the Ohio River Valley, a few light showers will be possible, especially across the eastern half of the CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A MIDLEVEL LIFT FROM A EASTWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH. BUT OVERALL SHOULD HANG IN THE LOW 70S. A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH NOTICEABLE COOLER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
1232 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO REGION. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND FLOW OFF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS INCREASING OVER WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
14 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
859 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND IT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AND IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S. 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE TEMP BEING REACH WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S. AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST. RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND TO THE EAST TOMORROW.
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. POCKET OF VERY COOL AIR ALOFT /H8 TEMPS 3-4C/ ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
803 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION AND IS GENERALLY LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND AS OF 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A CKM.
Temperatures still look on target tonight with mins mainly in the upper 40s to around 50 with a bit warmer in the urban heat island of STL and cooler readings possible in sheltered valley areas.
The thermal trof, or coldest temps at 500 mb, will be right over our area during peak heating so scattered showers will be possible again, especially across the east. Cold front has passed well east of Illinois this afternoon: however, a broken line of showers has formed well behind the boundary across portions of central and east-central Illinois, generally along/east of a Hoopeston to Taylorville line. In addition, as upper low digs southward into the Ohio River Valley, a few light showers will be possible, especially across the eastern half of the CWA.
1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE NEW WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS LOW. BUT THINKING IT WILL BE ISOLATED AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR RIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE LOW CENTER/TRIPLE POINT AS IT PROVIDES THE BEST UPWARD FORCING. LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMALS.
OUTSIDE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY WAS QUICKLY BEING SWEPT IN THE ANNALS OF UNDERWHELMING FROPAS GIVEN ITS STINGY PRECIP COVERAGE. BUT A RETURN TO PRECIP MAY UNFOLD AS SOON AS TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A 700 MB HIGH AND SURFACE RIDGING. AMPLIFIED FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOMORROW EVENING WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS WORKING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO SETS UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE CWA WILL SEE HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WARMEST IN THE WEST WHERE GRADIENT BETWEEN LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS STRONGEST. H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN US.
1031 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS HOLDING ACROSS FLORIDA. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS SWINGING NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
LOOK FOR THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION KEEPS WEAKENING WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
1203 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 20Z OR 3PM LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH N TEXAS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY. ONE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED W TO E ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE S PLAINS. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SUPPORT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A SFC COLD FRONT SEPARATING A CP AIRMASS FROM A MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN TN. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. 77 /ISSUED 235 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SATURATION OF THE PROFILE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS, ANTICIPATING MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SW ACROSS REGION AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF US AND PACIFIC TROFS MOVES TOWARD WEST COAST DURING PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP LATE IN WEEK WITH STRONGER OF THE PACIFIC TROFS MOVES TOWARD STATE.
857 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
ALL SMALL- SCALE MODELS SHOW CURRENT MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AS THE COLD FRONT LINES EVERYTHING UP. LETTING TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
815 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
1035 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
727 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCE ON THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY THICKENING UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DIGGING TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EDGE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TWO STATE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
1126 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 /06Z TAFS/ The main cold front is moving south across the Big Country at this time and looks to have passed through KABI. /ISSUED 322 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) Several outflow boundaries have moved into the area this afternoon, as well as a synoptic cold front. The main cold front has made it into the northern Concho Valley this afternoon, and will continue to move south through the area, so additional thunderstorm development will be possible, but as we move into the evening hours, chances will diminish. With the front moving through the area tonight, expect to see slightly cooler temperatures with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
755 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING AND TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATE SUMMER UPPER TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS DUE TO MODEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROF. /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
GENERALLY AT THE LOW VFR TO MVFR LEVEL. /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY WAS QUICKLY BEING SWEPT IN THE ANNALS OF UNDERWHELMING FROPAS GIVEN ITS STINGY PRECIP COVERAGE. BUT A RETURN TO PRECIP MAY UNFOLD AS SOON AS TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A 700 MB HIGH AND SURFACE RIDGING. AMPLIFIED FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOMORROW EVENING WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY THE HEART OF THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MID-LEVEL TROF AND BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE TROF AXIS EASTWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NEAR JAMES BAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO NE MINNESOTA. AND SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW 30S. FROST HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF OCCURRING FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LATER REBOUND TO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SW WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WEAKENS AND WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL TODAY, THEN ENTER CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE EAST COAST, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY, AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SHOULD MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.
SATELLITE SHOWS WARM FRONT IS ENHANCING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH A GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN AND WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY DECENT PRECIP EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OREGON. THE LOW IS MOVING QUICK AND WILL BE EAST INTO IDAHO BY EVENING WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
403 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BUT DRY EARLY WEEK WEATHER WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL READINGS BY MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE/FLATTEN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW. SHOWERS AND AND AREAS OF PRIMARILY MVFR DEGRADATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SOME ACCUMULATION OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES SHOULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EVENTUALLY EXTENDED INTO THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR. AND NAM BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS BELOW THE FREEZING ISOTHERM IN ITS ENTIRETY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE TO THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
LOUISIANA-CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM OR VRB03KT EARLY-MID MORNING BREEZE. AS SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS EAST THIS WILL VEER OUR LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 12Z HAS RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
1137 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the central U. Gusty southwesterly winds and cooler conditions are occurring across the area this afternoon as the system passes through.
A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE EAST-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. RANGING FROM THE L/M40S OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE L50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. AN ARM OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS PROGGED BY MDLS TO BE LIFTING THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY SAT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
349 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 (Today and Tonight) A cold front has entered our northern counties, and will continue to move south across west central Texas today. High temperatures today will be 4-6 degrees cooler than yesterday across our northern and central counties. Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s.
INCLUDING THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF BAKER COUNTY AND MTN VALLEYS OF SW IDAHO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE START TIME BUT STILL SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEFORE 8 AM LOCAL. TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FROM BOISE. THEN FALL BACK DOWN TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY 11-12Z IN THE METROPLEX AND BY 14Z AT KACT.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SWWD INTO CENTRAL OK. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5KTS.