Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
816 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage on Friday evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms should persist through this evening in conjunction with a crossing trough. Converging sly flow, with dewpoint values in the low to mid 70s, is providing sufficient moisture feed for strong updraft development given ML CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg, south of the I-80 corridor. With loss of diurnal heating and the departing trough, severe trends should gradually wane from north to south through midnight. As such, convection chances, mainly in the form of showers, will continue overnight as overall ascent improves with the encroaching upr trough/cold front. The upper level pattern does indicate some support aloft as the trough dips further south owing to stronger organization and development.
555 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Observations indicating gusty northerly winds across the area this afternoon with deep mixing and cold air advection behind an exiting cold front.
404 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A ridge of high pressure continues to establish itself off the coast of British Columbia.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the region mostly dry through Friday night. An upper trough will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs only in the upper 70s across the east on Friday and lows dipping into the 50s. The upper trough will exit to the east Friday night as an upper ridge begins to build in from the west.
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage on Friday evening. Converging sly flow, with dewpoint values in the low to mid 70s, is providing sufficient moisture feed for rapid updraft development given ML CAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg. Convection chance, mainly showers, will continue overnight as overall ascent improves with the encroaching upr trough/cold front. The upper level pattern does indicate some support aloft as the trough dips further south owing to stronger organization and development.
622 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Potentially strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds will continue through tonight, as a cold front moves across Illinois. Some lingering showers or storms are possible on Friday, but a trend to drier and cooler weather will be underway, as high pressure builds in from the northwest to start the weekend. Lingering showers and a few storms are still possible Friday morning as the cold front makes progress away from our CWA to the SE. Highs will be much more pleasant, in the lower 80s for the most part. The heat advisory was trimmed by a row of counties on the northern edge, due to storms and much cooler conditions in that area.
This is not being resolved all that well in the high res guidance, but showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least the early evening.
853 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 (Issued 850 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021) Cold front progressing through southern Wi this evening. Once the front passes plenty of cooler and drier air upstream working in from MN and northwest WI. In fact, high pressure will continue to work in this period and set up shop on Friday and it's drier and cooler influence will carry into Friday night.
An additional round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop later this evening and into the overnight period as the cold front finally makes its way southward. With the cold front to our south, high temperatures are only expected to reach the mid 80s tomorrow.
530 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 At the upper levels, northwest flow aloft continues, with the upper ridge moving over the west coast today, and will progress eastward towards the northern plains over the weekend. Passage of the cold front this morning has helped temper our highs today, and will continue that trend Friday, only reaching into the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the ridge moves closer to to the midwest, temperatures rebound for the weekend.
An upper level ridge should help to inhibit significant convection; however, seabreeze convection and the potential for some streamer showers will keep me from removing PoPs from the forecast. An upper level high pressure system is expected to gradually build over the region during the period, while PWAT values increase from east to west (deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF). As a compromise between the building upper ridge and increasing moisture, anticipate mostly isolated convection Friday, yet scattered activity over the Victoria Crossroads.
958 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage on Friday evening. Precipitation chances will persist into Friday morning as jet ascent increased with an encroaching upper trough and abundant llvl moisture. The upper level pattern does indicate some support aloft as the trough dips further south owing to stronger organization and development.
928 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend.
738 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend.
Ridge axis extending across the region will continue deep easterly flow into tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the 70s and highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s.
Despite a cold front moving through a somewhat unstable airmass, the inhibition should help to keep a lid on convective development. - Risk for storms tonight A cold front will be pushing through the region tonight. a large area of high pressure builds in behind the front for the remainder of Friday and through the weekend.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s near the coastline and along the St Johns River. Ridge axis extending across the region will continue deep easterly flow into tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the 70s and highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s.
654 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 The cold front that brought brief showers for some this morning has cleared the CWA and skies have mostly cleared, except for some higher clouds in the southwestern forecast area that are in the process of dissipating as they run into drier air. The one fly in the ointment is the low RH values (25-35 percent) especially in parts of the northern and western CWA, along with NW winds gusting to around 25 MPH.
1229 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 (This evening through Friday) A weak upper level low is currently located across far West Texas/southeast New Mexico. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area today and Saturday.
High pressure will shift east tonight into Iowa which will bring a gradually increasing southerly surface wind. The low level thermal field is warmer, so highs should consistently be in the mid and upper 80s most locations.
and Saturday High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and cooler weather to the region today. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the 40s across the north, with a few readings in the upper 30s not out of the question, with lows in the lower to middle 50s across east-central Wisconsin. The high will start to drift to the east on Saturday, allowing for some return flow and slightly warmer temperatures across the area with continued mostly sunny skies.
High pressure will continue to build south in the next 24 hours, on the positive side bringing some much needed relief from the heat and humidity. As the high builds south today into tonight, a rather cool and dry airmass will settle into our area and remain with us through Saturday. Highs today will be comfortable in the upper 70s northwest to the lower to mid 80s where soils remain rather dry. Tonight, with the cooler air in place and light winds blanketing the region, lows will be quite cool with readings in the far north near 50 while along and south of I80 mid to upper 50s will be common. Highs should warm into the lower 80s by afternoon with a few urban locations a degree or two warmer.
The combination of the heat and humidity will also make for another very hot day as highs will peak in the lower 90s and heat index values in excess of 100 degrees.
H5 flow remains out of the northwest today, with a trough axis to our east, and a building ridge to the west. This ridge is expected to work eastward today into Saturday, allowing temperatures to rebound heading into the weekend.
Outflow from the Ohio River valley convection may push far enough south to help trigger some isolated convection later tonight over at least north and possibly central parts of the area, so will keep the low PoPs in these areas late, but will remove evening PoPs and convection. Tomorrow night showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight as a cold front moves southward towards the region. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 92 72 89 / 40 30 70 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 72 90 71 88 / 50 40 70 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 90 70 87 / 50 40 70 30 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 68 88 67 84 / 50 40 80 30 90.
Main story thru the weekend will be continued ridging over the Great Basin/wrn CONUS and expanding low-level thermal ridge from the Rockies into the High Plains.
Look for afternoon highs only up into the 80s(F) in central Kansas with the lower 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorm chances linger into Saturday as medium range models indicate ridging aloft shifting east through the Intermountain West, setting up a northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will set the stage for possible thunderstorm development as H5 vort maxima associated with a weak jet core track southeast out of the Northern High Plains into the high plains of western Nebraska and western Kansas.
An additional round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop later this evening and into the overnight period as the cold front finally makes its way southward. With the cold front to our south, high temperatures are only expected to reach the mid 80s tomorrow. The cold front pushes further south into the southeastern US by Saturday with mid level troughing remaining overhead.
300 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A complex of storms across SE KS associated with a cold front will continue to push southward this morning toward NE OK. Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler with cloud cover and showers/storms around.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge that has kept Texas in the searing heat will start to break down today as a trough over the Great Lakes starts to dig further south. A cold front located over the Central Plains will dip into the Southern Plains this afternoon. Ahead of it, a weak area of low pressure will develop over the Panhandle and drift slowly eastward. Despite the higher chances for rain and more clouds, the airmass is still quite warm, so high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today. Otherwise, the airmass will continue to be warm and humid overnight, allowing for low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
A cold front on approach may have some compressional heating along with for our Friday, but this may limit a good midday sea breeze.
Ridge axis extending across the region will continue deep easterly flow into tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the 70s and highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s. Ridging over the region begins to weaken as deep tropical moisture advects into the area from south to north ahead of tropical depression Fred.
WV imagery indicates a broad scale upper level trough of low pressure stretching from the Dakotas eastward into the Great Lakes. Surface dew points averaged in the upper 50s over the far southwest section of the forecast area south of the boundary - to the mid/upper 60s over the lower plains mainly east of highway 283. Cooler afternoon highs also over portions of central Kansas may not exceed the upper 80s.
Convection is expected to redevelop on Friday along and ahead of an advancing cold front. Tonight Through Saturday High pressure aloft continues across the southern and western U. with an upper trough over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. A cold front in northern Missouri will move south tonight. Another factor is more clouds and rain will be around tomorrow to keep temperatures slightly cooler. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 90s, and in the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70s, and then in the lower to mid 70s Friday night.
1153 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Showers and isolated lightning will continue through tonight as a cold front moves across Illinois. Some lingering showers or storms are possible on Friday, but a trend to drier and cooler weather will be underway, as high pressure builds in from the northwest to start the weekend. Cold front, still north of the forecast area this evening, should start to cross the forecast area a few hours after midnight. Lingering showers and a few storms are still possible Friday morning as the cold front makes progress away from our CWA to the SE. Highs will be much more pleasant, in the lower 80s for the most part. The heat advisory was trimmed by a row of counties on the northern edge, due to storms and much cooler conditions in that area.
136 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend.
307 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will influence the weather into Saturday.
A large, broad upper trough is in place over the eastern two-thirds of Canada, with the base extending as far south as the central U. This trough will become more amplified through Friday while slowly moving eastward, and take on a more negative tilt over southeast Canada and northeast Conus through the remainder of the week. Closer to home, weak upper ridging will persist over the southeast and southern Great Plains regions through the near term, while a weak inverted upper trough builds slightly northward over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf. However, given the unpredictability of the extend and opaqueness of cloud coverage, it is difficult to determine which portion of the CWA will have the highest MLCAPE values.
Look for afternoon highs only up into the 80s(F) in central Kansas with the lower 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border.
This MCV will also keep abundant cloud cover in place across much of the area through the afternoon which should help to keep temperatures cooler than yesterday especially across the western South Plains and Texas Panhandle where cloud cover should be thickest. Model forecast soundings indicate slightly lower surface based CAPE values (around 1,000 J/Kg) due to the cooler temperatures but deep layer shear vales will remain meager.
This trough along with increased terrain enhancements across the west, will create enough lift to result in thunderstorm development mainly across southwest Nebraska this evening. Temperatures will remain cooler for today with highs only rising into the mid to upper 80s. On Saturday, a return of warmer mid-level air will allow temperatures to rise back into the low 90s across the eastern Panhandle and northern Nebraska.
The highest concentration of weather activity will be over the interior early afternoon then traversing westward over the Florida west coast during the late afternoon and evening hours.
357 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight.
853 PM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Dry and warmer conditions are expected for the next few days, especially in the Mojave Desert this weekend.
1041 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Observations indicating gusty northerly winds across the area this afternoon with deep mixing and cold air advection behind an exiting cold front.
Despite a cold front moving through a somewhat unstable airmass, the inhibition should help to keep a lid on convective development. - Risk for storms tonight A cold front will be pushing through the region tonight. a large area of high pressure builds in behind the front for the remainder of Friday and through the weekend. The low level thermal trough passes through Saturday so that day will likely feature the lowest max temps.
High pressure will move into the region from the west today, settle atop the region overnight tonight, then slide into the Ohio River Valley region on Saturday. In addition, a dry warm front over southern Canada will slide east of MN/WI. This is in conjunction with northwest flow aloft, downstream from a western CONUS ridge, helping maintain deep dry air across the Upper Midwest. However, with high pressure moving to the east and the warm front moving across the region, a more southerly flow on Saturday will modestly advect warmer air into the region.
Much cooler weather on the way 3. The true cold front was analyzed north of Interstate 70 across northern Kansas into northern Missouri. Widespread cloud cover will likely keep temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highest readings along the Missouri/Arkansas state line.
An upper level ridge will help keep convection at a minimum. Fog, will be possible this morning at ALI as light winds prevail with moisture in the low levels. An upper level high pressure system is expected to gradually build over the region during the period, while PWAT values increase from east to west (deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF). As a compromise between the building upper ridge and increasing moisture, anticipate mostly isolated convection Friday, yet scattered activity over the Victoria Crossroads.
1256 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight.
111 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 A cold front will cross the area later this morning with dry, sunny and pleasant weather through this weekend. The bigger concern is when the cold front comes in tonight. The front will should push out by mid-afternoon, and then cooler and drier air will filter in. Tomorrow's highs will only be in the low 80s.
327 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 (Issued 327 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021) Today through Saturday: Cold front has pushed southeast through most of the area, and will continue to move to the southeast into this morning. Dry air moving into the area with high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies, once these high clouds move out. The high will linger over the area tonight, then gradually move to the east on Saturday. The influence of the high will continue to bring dry conditions, light winds and near normal temperatures.
1054 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 The cold front that brought brief showers for some this morning has cleared the CWA and skies have mostly cleared, except for some higher clouds in the southwestern forecast area that are in the process of dissipating as they run into drier air. The one fly in the ointment is the low RH values (25-35 percent) especially in parts of the northern and western CWA, along with NW winds gusting to around 25 MPH.
The area remains under northwest flow aloft through the day Friday as an upper trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes.
635 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure will influence the weather into Saturday.
The outflow boundary and an cold front moving into Oklahoma today will serve as foci for shower/thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon, mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma, with chances spreading southward this evening.
The upper ridging has broken down some as the main center moved east. Broad troughing is taking shape across the Great Lakes region and this all will generally contribute to a little more comfortable conditions once again today. Temperatures will still reach into the lower to some mid 90s across the region but dewpoints will again remain in check to prevent heat being as much of an issue, similar to yesterday.
Cooler conditions will prevail through Saturday as a disturbance moves slowly westward across the state and brings good chances for showers and storms, favoring southern and eastern portions of the area.
834 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 An upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over our region through the weekend.
Convective activity may see a lull near sunset before more precip moves in from the N overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Predawn temperatures were already in the 70s at most reporting locations, indicating values are a touch cooler than the same time yesterday. While somewhat cooler than yesterday, it will not be by a whole lot. PoPs will remain over the Nrn half of the state overnight as the cold front enters the state. Overall, QPF amounts should remain on the lower side, generally half an inch to around a inch, with isolated higher amounts possible. Temperatures will be cooler with precipitation/cloud coverage more prevalent. The cold front should push across the state on Saturday.
407 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 An upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over our region through the weekend.
Think valley rain chances will be highest in the evening and largely contingent on outflow boundary interaction from decaying storms in the higher terrain earlier in the day. Tonight showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight as a cold front moves southward towards the region. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 91 72 89 / 30 30 70 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 90 71 89 / 30 40 70 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 89 70 88 / 30 40 70 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 87 67 85 / 40 40 70 40 80.
In the upper levels, we have weak flat ridging present. However, by Saturday Fred's NWD movement should begin to eat away at this ridge. In the lower levels, we continue with weak flow as well.
Latest surface analysis continues to show high pressure settling through the region resulting in light winds and cool temperatures. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast, with cyclonic flow over the upper midwest. For today, quiet weather is expected as upper ridge gradually builds eastward. Upper ridge building into the area will be the dominating feature through the weekend.
712 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight.
This could bring additional precipitation to area airports along the Highway 82 corridor, which may be included in future forecasts. The upper ridging has broken down some as the main center moved east. Broad troughing is taking shape across the Great Lakes region and this all will generally contribute to a little more comfortable conditions once again today. Temperatures will still reach into the lower to some mid 90s across the region but dewpoints will again remain in check to prevent heat being as much of an issue, similar to yesterday.
Weak pop-up cells were occurring this early this morning across parts of southeast Arizona probably aided by a very weak upper low that was over SW AZ.
304 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 High pressure building into the region from the west will maintain dry conditions over the area today.
Kuroski (Issued 327 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021) Today through Saturday: Cold front has pushed southeast through most of the area, and will continue to move to the southeast into this morning. Dry air moving into the area with high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies, once these high clouds move out. The high will linger over the area tonight, then gradually move to the east on Saturday. The influence of the high will continue to bring dry conditions, light winds and near normal temperatures.
The first half of the forecast period will be very quiet, with dry high pressure across the north-central CONUS, despite a longwave upper-level trough lingering over the region.
The main impact would be to fire weather concerns, especially if the RH drops into the low 20s and winds are gusting over 20-25 mph. H5 flow remains out of the northwest today, with a trough axis to our east, and a building ridge to the west. This ridge is expected to work eastward today into Saturday, allowing temperatures to rebound heading into the weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): An inverted 500mb trough looks to develop over the northwestern Gulf later today.
A heat advisory for the lower valleys of north-central Idaho is still warranted, as highs are expected to be between 100 and 108F.