Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A high pressure ridge will usher fair weather and warm temperatures into NY and PA through this weekend. We do have a zone of low level convergence running along the high terrain from roughly Cortland east through Cooperstown but not enough moisture for convection. The current lightning map shows thunderstorms over western/central PA are flowing through the higher ml-cape environment extending along the PA/OH border. With little reason to believe the higher ml-cape values will move into our FA, we trended below guidance for thunder probability. An upper atmospheric ridge will extend through the Ohio Valley into NY/PA by late Friday, pushing warmer temperatures and fair weather into our region.
as high pressure builds in. Mostly clear skies are then expected overnight and Friday under the high. Winds will be lighter and waves lower Friday into the weekend under high pressure. High High pressure will build in tonight and be overhead on Friday.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for tonight with decreasing clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes.
Clouds will break up as dry air and Canadian high pressure settle into the area, leaving clear skies for the overnight hours. High pressure will remain overhead tomorrow and Friday night, with high confidence in VFR conditions. The center of our upper level low has already reached Western Lake Erie and will continue to exit southeast late this afternoon, allowing for rush of drier air to come in from the northeast from eastern Canada, allowing skies to clear out tonight.
The mid/upper ridge will persist across an area from the Southwest U. A rogue afternoon/evening storm will remain possible through the period with some better mid level flow arriving on Sat as the ridge retrogrades a bit which may help to organize some storms into the evening/overnight hours.
/issued 219 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ An upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest with upper ridging over the central conus. Temperatures will be hot again today with highs expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday. Beginning on Friday, the forecast is dry as the upper ridge intensifies and continues to build over the region.
will have many communities warming into the lower 90s by noon.
612 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 Gradients and ridge winds have decreased early this evening with surface winds backing off many areas. /Issued 203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016/ Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into Friday.
Given the numerous reports of wind gusts 40-50 mph today and 500 mb temps progged to cool to around minus 9C as trough axis approaches, think that a few storms tomorrow will be marginally severe. Temps aloft are forecast to be cooler, so wind gusts may even be stronger than today.
A warm and humid night is in store as strong 500mb upper anticyclone sites over to our west over northern Mexico and western TX. /issued 347 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016/ The main story today was the heat and the high heat indices.
It's warm and muggy out there as of 9pm with temps in the lower 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front is laying west to east across central KY and is progged to sink south through overnight. Because of how dry, warm and muggy it is out there right now, will bring the lows up a deg or two in most locations. However, isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially on Friday afternoon as a cold front drops south through the region. Winds will remain light westerly tonight, shifting to the northwest with the approach of the cold front on Friday. Will end the chc of pcpn by Friday evening as the cdfnt will be south of the cwa and a little cooler/less humid airmass moves across the Tn Valley.
1038 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 High pressure builds down from Southeastern Canada through Friday, then remains over the area through the weekend.
740 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 Low pressure centered near Cleveland will move southeast off the Carolina coast by morning. This will allow high pressure to build over the region for the weekend. There will be a period of cloudiness in the cold air advection behind the low but drier air should begin to win out toward daybreak. Not much to write about in the short term as high pressure will dominate Friday through the weekend.
525 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016 A very warm and generally dry period of weather can be expected over the next several days with upper-level ridging in place.
359 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front as weak upper level systems move across the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s each dasy.
Otherwise drier and warmer for most of the area as the high pressure begins to take hold. For the end of the week and into the weekend most of the area will be dry with the high pressure over the area. The strength and placement of this wave is still yet to be determined and will be determined by the placement of the ridge over the southeast and if there are any weaknesses within that ridge. With the upper ridge producing subsidence over the entire, this afternoon's convection will quickly dissipate after sunset.
/Issued 439 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ Upper trough over the central Rockies and Four Corners region will track slowly east today and tonight towards the Panhandles. A cold front over southwest Kansas and southeastern Colorado will push slowly south and east today into the Oklahoma Panhandle and then into the Texas Panhandle by late tonight or early Thursday.
Overnight lows will be slightly cooler than what we've observed over the past several weeks- mostly in the lower 70s inland and away from the cities.
/issued 932 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ The upper-level ridge will remain centered over the southeast CONUS today. Large scale subsidence will continue to warm the column, with surface temperatures warming into the low/mid 90s across most of the Mid-South this afternoon. Water Vapor Satellite trends/00Z Upper Air analysis indicates a ridge of high pressure centered over Mississippi and Louisiana. As of 3 am CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the lower to middle 70s at most locations with surface dewpoints also in the 70s. A hot and humid day is expected across the Mid-South today as temperatures will rise into the lower 90s this afternoon. Short term models indicate the upper level ridge will gradually shift east towards the Tennessee Valley.
An upper level low pressure system across southern Saskatchewan will continue to bring isolated to widely scattered showers to parts of northeast Montana through this evening. However, the upper level trough will persist in the vicinity and so cooler weather conditions will continue with highs below climate averages.
326 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 A strong upper level ridge is in place across the southeast conus, encompassing much of the Ohio River Valley. A cold front is trailing from this low, southeast across the upper midwest and into the central plains.
319 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will give way to a storm system sliding out of the Great Lakes.
Wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low across southwest Manitoba will remain across western and central North Dakota through the evening and into the early overnight.
258 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will hold off the east coast tonight and Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west.
This is expected to continue in that area for the next couple of days with the breeze perhaps decreasing over the weekend as high pressure begins to build-in from the south.
341 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move offshore as a warm from central Indiana to southern Ohio moves northeast through the region. On Thursday the region will be in a rather warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
This system is attempting to track right into the apex of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Appalachians, which the models indicate will show little propensity of budging over the period. With the increase in cloud cover as well as southerly flow in place over the area combined with much warmer temperatures this afternoon than we have seen in a couple days, a strong radiational cooling night is not expected.
419 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will prevail into the weekend.
309 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 A s/w ejecting out ahead of the main trof over the srn Plains will continue to lift newd this evening. Tilly The cold front will continue moving slowly south Thursday and Thursday night. The focus for convection will likely shift westward into Kansas during the late evening where the low level jet will be strongest.
High pressure will extend across the region through the week. An area of high pressure extending across central NC will result in hot and dry conditions this afternoon. Tonight, overnight temps will cool back into the 60s under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies as the area of high pressure maintains control of our weather.
To the SE portions of Lincoln county and the higher terrain could see some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon as breaking in cloud cover has helped to increase instability. As the upper level trough continues to make its way eastward it becomes disorganized with lack of upper level support and flow turns more westerly. This will help to fire off convection over the higher terrain by the afternoon with increased SE flow at the surface. Temperatures will be slightly warmer then today with highs on the plains in the mid to upper 70s and 50s at higher elevations. As upslope low level wind continues Thursday evening, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and urban corridor will move further east over the rest of the area through the night as 700 mb flow turns west to southwesterly.
309 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Across the country this afternoon, high pressure dominates the east coast, but moving westward into the Midwest, the pattern is considerably more unsettled.
310 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over southern Manitoba with broad troffing over the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains with breezy northwest winds across northwest SD. Upper low/trof will diminish into westerly flow as it shifts eastward out of the region.
338 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper high is centered over nrn MS this afternoon.
As a ridge of high pressure shifts east, the first in a series of northwestward-moving disturbances will invade East Texas on Thursday.
Currently the National Hurricane Center gives this tropical wave a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next two days and 80 percent over the next 5 days.
A frontal boundary remains stalled across The Panhandles into southwestern and central Kansas, and is expected to remain fairly stationary through the day, in response to the positioning of the western trough and the east/southeast ridge. Influenced from the low level jet overnight/this morning, some decent convection continues to wane across southern Kansas, with scattered showers lingering over the Panhandles and far northwestern Oklahoma. An effective cold front/boundary may enter northwest Oklahoma Thursday; which may enhance the chance of convection.
243 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Broad area of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking off an aftn shower or tstorm. Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge.
Little change in the forecast in a high confidence scenario with wrap around moisture south of the upper level low on the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border. Clouds, gusty northwest winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for showers across the north highlight the short term period. Latest water vapor imagery shows our slow moving closed upper low circulating over southeast Saskatchewan early this morning. At the surface, a secondary cold front stemming from low pressure in eastern Manitoba, stretched southwest to near Estevan and into northeast Montana. This cold front will continue to push southeast today continuing the ongoing cold air advection. A dry and cool northwest flow dominates Thursday as the closed low continues to shift farther east into Ontario.
An upper low centered over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba continued to keep the area under cyclonic flow aloft this afternoon, with upslope flow at the surface. Below normal temperatures will continue into Thursday as the region remains underneath a trough.
Upper level ridge will remain in place through the short term. The moisture is associated with a short wave that is passing well north of our area, along the northern periphery of the high. A large mid level ridge will remain over the region for the period.
129 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Weak trof ahead of approaching low this morning and a weak wave developing showers and thunderstorms for the morning in Central Illinois. Temps should be warmer today with above normal expected over the southern half of the area.
637 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will remain to the south through Thursday.
Our southern terminals will be affected with occasional MVFR ceilings, and KSJT should be near the northern edge of the low cloud field. With the exception of the low cloud development, VFR conditions are expected. To our east, the upper level high over the southeastern CONUS will weaken slightly today and tonight. To our west, the upper trough currently over western New Mexico will move slowly east today, and will shear out somewhat as it lifts northeast tonight. The upper high will be the prevailing influence for our area. With the approach of the aforementioned trough, showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin areas into parts of northwest Texas this afternoon and evening.
This is a response to an inverted trough/easterly wave feature moving along the central Gulf coast region.
607 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move offshore as a warm from central Indiana to southern Ohio moves northeast through the region. On Thursday the region will be in a rather warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
401 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Well-advertised cold front is currently draped across southeastern NE into west-central IA, aiding in blossoming up convection. Ridging to the south and east is allowing for perturbations to ride its periphery right across the local region and southerly to southwesterly flow to allow for a continued source of moisture advecting in.
Mid-level moist plume will remain situated across the area today as upper trough near the 4-corners area slowly approaches. 80+ inches will continue to spread north-northeast into the area today and tonight as an upper trough lifts out through the central Rockies. But with the high precipitable water and parallel flow aloft to surface features, we also retain a risk for locally heavy rain amounts later today and tonight. at least several degrees cooler central and western zones, but only slightly less east. Our choices look to be a strong high pressure building over the west and eventually enveloping our area mid-week. or a weaker ridge over the west but a strong tropical system moving onto the central Gulf of Mexico shoreline. We would be on the subsidence side of the second choice, so again, warmer and drier.
Scattered-broken cu around 3,000 feet will continue for the rest of today under high pressure.
Wind speeds also starting to show more gusts too, generally in the low to mid 20 knot range. Cold front continuing to push east, departing the FA early this morning. In the wake of the front west winds have developed and will increase as the upper low pressure system slowly tracks east across southern Manitoba. Cooler temps today with highs in the 70s. Thursday will continue to see the influence of the upper low especially across NW MN with shower activity chances continuing, as a cool and cloudy day is expected.
400 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will remain to the south through Thursday.
High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will keep similar temperatures across the district today and Thursday. Modest cooling is then expected late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak upper level trough develops over California. Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than yesterday morning beneath the stratus deck and temps are expected to end the day with similar readings to yesterday. For today and tomorrow, a vast majority of locations will be a few to several degrees below normal, with only the most extreme inland locations such as Pinnacles National Park expected to be somewhat warmer than normal. Meanwhile, a 594DM high pressure ridge remains amplified along the Pacific coastline with the ridge axis lingering around 135W today.
1155 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper trough covers the western 2/3 of the ConUS, as upper low spins over southern SK. Cooler and moist air will push into the region today and tonight as the trough swings through the northern plains. Highs will be in the 70s, warmer across central SD. Upper low/trough will diminish into westerly flow as it shifts eastward out of the region Thursday. Chances for precip will increase from west to east beginning early Thursday as another trough approaches the area.
There could be a few isolated showers late morning around KVCT but we keep the TAFs dry given the low spatial coverage and confidence. A very dry air mass will remain over the region today as the upper level ridge over the southeast US to the Texas coastal plains holds. The upper level ridge drifts slightly to the north on Thursday. This higher moisture will move into the northern Coastal Bend on Thursday and provide a chance for convection. With ridge moving north and higher moisture, temperatures will be slightly cooler.
346 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper air analysis shows a shear axis/trough roughly situated across the Interstate 20 corridor this afternoon. Even though the airmass will remain very moist, high pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather pattern.
212 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will give way to a storm system sliding out of the Great Lakes.
The highest chance of TSRA this afternoon is in the FL Panhandle, which will likely affect operations at KECP at times this afternoon, with gusty winds and brief MVFR/IFR conditions. The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge along the Piedmont, with the low layer flow (1000-700mb) from the northeast at 10 to 15 knots.
Despite the presence of mid-level ridging, an axis of PWATs near 2 inches will be in place south of I-59, with the best coverage of scattered afternoon convection expected to be in and along the northern edge of this moisture axis. Convection will be much more isolated across the northwest counties closer to the mid- level anticyclone. There is some dry air aloft closer to the mid- level anticyclone as well, but this will mainly not align with where the best coverage of convection will be. With the upper ridge producing subsidence over the entire, this afternoon's convection will quickly dissipate after sunset.
The low level jet will also continue to advect some good moisture as precipitable waters get to around 2 inches. While the storms should continue to move to the northeast around 30 mph, the high water content with the forcing on the back side of the MCV continuing to feed the system could lead to a couple of rounds of showers and storms with heavy rainfall for a few isolated locations, espcially from Detroit on south.
311 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 A s/w ejecting out ahead of the main trof over the srn Plains will continue to lift newd this evening. Tilly Cold front to continue it's slow progress to the south on Thursday, finally stalling out just south of forecast area Thursday night. Depending on cloud cover and precipitation, highs will range from the low 80s far north to the low 90s south on Thursday.
421 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 An upper level ridge centered over Mississippi has kept most of the CWA dry and hot today. This moisture stream is being drawn westward around the ridge and then northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
(Issued 1054 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016) A warmer and more humid start to the morning is a foreshadow for today's forecast. Will have less cloud cover than yesterday in some locations but will have more moisture and warmer temps across the board. The upper level ridge is still anchored across the southeast. Expecting highs to reach the lower 90s. Otherwise combating the ridging, there is a little bit of theta e lift in the NE to work with the terrain and daytime heating to get scattered showers and thunderstorms in NE AL/Southern Middle TN today.
Tonight Through Thursday cooler air with higher humidity will continue to spread south and west across the area tonight and Thursday. snow of 1 to 2 inches is possible in the higher mountains. Less precipitation will occur in the lower elevations and across the south.
344 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 The mid-level anticyclone is firmly entrenched over the southeast CONUS this afternoon. Despite a modest diurnal Cu field, temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 90s across the Mid- South. Expect overnight lows similar to what we experienced this morning, with temperatures generally in the low/mid 70s. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today's, with highs in the low/mid 90s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again tomorrow, but like today, the subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge will limit coverage.
Satellite showing plenty of mid and high clouds across the CWA on the northern part of an elongated upper low over Colorado. Cooler conditions will be over the CWA over the next few days as an upper low over far southern Canada moves east slowly and a couple pushes of cooler air sink south down the high plains into the northern and central Great Plains.
shows a trough digging across the four corners region with a large ridge centered across the Southeast. This ridge is what has lead to the dry weather the last few days. The ridge of high pressure, and the location of it, will be the key to the weather across South Central Texas through the next 7 days. The ridge will begin to slowly slide eastward tomorrow. While highs will be in the low 90s the high relative humidity values will lead to afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100, especially across areas east of Interstate 35.
226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper ridging over the southeast conus. The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a little less lift over the area and less low level moisture.
303 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level closed low over southern Canada. Latest 19z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Canada into central Iowa and is producing light rain/sprinkles or drizzle along and ahead of cold front per latest KARX radar.
655 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move offshore as a warm from central Indiana to southern Ohio moves northeast through the region. On Thursday the region will be in a rather warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
/Issued 1102 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016/ 925mb upper air analysis shows a trough/shear axis across northeast GA this morning. This ridge remains across the area through Thursday but weakens some. An upper ridge over the southern states centered about southern MS is forecast to drift over the TN valley and southern Appalachians through Thursday. With the upper ridge established over the TN valley and southern Appalachians for Thursday.
A cold front arriving early Thursday morning will bring VFR CIGS and good visibilities.