Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
245 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 A cold front moved into the region overnight, bringing unseasonably cold temperatures and to the area, and even fog/stratus to the NE Permian Basin, which is currently playing hob on expected afternoon highs. Upstream, an upper trough has made landfall in the PacNW, and is forecast to dig down to the Four Corners by 18Z Saturday, the timing of which is consistent w/past model runs.
1010 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure situated over the Great Lakes region will dominate our weather through the weekend with quiet dry conditions and near average temperatures. For later today (Friday), drier air currently over the Canadian Shield will begin to filter in from the north behind a weak low-level trough.
739 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 The region will be locked into a persistent, quiet weather pattern through the weekend and much of the next work week with broad high pressure building in from the west and low pressure systems missing us to the south and north. Compact upper low will rotate through the Bay of Fundy tonight with a few snow showers across northern and eastern zones this evening. Quiet weather is expected through the weekend as low pressure tracks well southeast of New England and high pressure builds in from the west. Saturday night will be slightly cooler than tonight with lows ranging to near 10 degrees north and near 20 degrees along the coast. Weak northern stream short wave troughs occasionally pass through but they will be moisture-starved and provide very little opportunity for precipitation.
928 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure builds over the Ohio Valley this weekend allowing for the possibility of some breaks of sunshine.
913 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift farther northeast into the western Atlantic into tonight keeping an elevated W/NW low level flow across the area. Continued cold air advection will produce chilly temperatures overnight, with lows falling into the low to mid 40s and potentially as low as the upper 30s across northern Lake and inland Volusia counties by daybreak Saturday.
By Saturday afternoon high pressure will be over the Dakotas with an upper ridge returning to the northern Rockies.
538 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 The stagnant weather pattern continues over the Northern Plains, so the main impacts in the short term are restricted to continued fog, low clouds, and spotty very light freezing drizzle/flurries. Do not think the light freezing drizzle or flurries will be widespread tonight, it may remain mostly accretion on trees or cars.
640 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure builds over the Ohio Valley this weekend allowing for the possibility of some breaks of sunshine.
Exactly where clouds hang out overnight will have a big impact on lows, with mostly cloud free areas likely in the lower 20s and completely cloudy areas closer to 30. Initial thoughts on temperatures for Saturday was to go warmer east/cooler west given cloud distribution, however vast majority of the guidance is opposite that and given relatively warm start in the west, even a 10 degree diurnal range makes upper 30s within reach.
The short wave will move east of the area during the morning hours and upper/surface ridging will build in during the afternoon hours. Skies will become partly cloudy, but temperatures will still remain cold, ranging from the low 40s to low 50s in the south.
A blocking pattern will persist across ern NOAM into late Saturday, leaving the mid level ridge and deep layer anticylonic flow in place across the Upper Great Lakes. The inversion depth will decrease tonight as warmer air below 900mb advects across Lake Huron and into Se Mi tonight. With sunshine expected on Saturday as the low level flow backs to the north-northwest, diurnal mixing should allow high temps to rise well into the 30s Saturday.
428 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Persistent cloud cover through the day across the northern half or so of the area held temperatures in the mid/upper 40s, with more breaks to the south allowing warming into the lower 50s. Should enough clearing occur tonight, decreasing north winds and temperatures falling into the lower/mid 30s will result in decent radiational cooling, which will open the door to frost away from the immediate coast. While more in the way of sun is expected on SAT, temperatures are still only expected to warm into the lower/mid 50s.
An upper level low will track over the Mid-South tonight into Saturday morning. The upper low could bring scattered flurries to portions of the Mid-South, much like what occurred this morning across the Memphis Metro area.
209 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 High and mid-level clouds will continue to invade the CWA from the west as a closed low drives across the Great Basin. As the center of the low dips southeast across Utah, scattered snow showers will materialize over the Eastern Uintas tonight before spreading into western Colorado high country Saturday morning. QG forcing maximizes early afternoon Saturday, however, by this time the closed low will be centered over northern New Mexico. Moisture wrapped around the northwest periphery of the low may maintain showers in these areas through the evening, though, we will not be on the favorable side of upslope flow. Cloud cover will moderate lows overnight tonight, with slightly cooler temperatures expected Saturday.
451 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 High and mid-level clouds will continue to invade the CWA from the west as a closed low drives across the Great Basin. As the center of the low dips southeast across Utah, scattered snow showers will materialize over the Eastern Uintas tonight before spreading into western Colorado high country Saturday morning. QG forcing maximizes early afternoon Saturday, however, by this time the closed low will be centered over northern New Mexico. Moisture wrapped around the northwest periphery of the low may maintain showers in these areas through the evening, though, we will not be on the favorable side of upslope flow. Cloud cover will moderate lows overnight tonight, with slightly cooler temperatures expected Saturday.
Attention then turns to next upper low currently in the nw Nevada/Oregon area.
Some areas of freezing fog can be expected across the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle after about 08Z to 10Z Saturday.
536 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 In a persistent troughy pattern, we are looking for much of the same type of weather through Saturday night with low clouds, fog around and hit or miss light precipitation (flurries/sprinkles). Models are not suggesting widespread dense fog overnight, however with the low clouds around and low temp/dewpoint spreads have included patchy fog potential for much of south central Nebraska where SREF probs suggest lower vsbys are more likely.
The stagnant weather pattern continues over the Northern Plains, so the main impacts in the short term are restricted to continued fog, low clouds, and spotty very light freezing drizzle/flurries. Do not think the light freezing drizzle or flurries will be widespread tonight, it may remain mostly accretion on trees or cars.
The result will be continued low clouds, areas of fog, and perhaps pockets of freezing drizzle. Areas of fog and a chance for freezing drizzle highlights the short term forecast. Drizzle / freezing drizzle has also been observed across the area, although most locations have warmed enough to not have many travel impacts at the moment. With a split flow pattern aloft, flow is very weak, which is why the low stratus deck and areas of fog are expected to continue through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Freezing drizzle is also possible tonight, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. We did keep a slight chance of freezing drizzle in the far south during the morning on Saturday, with forecast soundings still showing that potential before drier air moves in from the north.
There could also be spots of freezing drizzle as top of deepening moist layer at the surface is warmer than -10c. Have expanded fog and light freezing drizzle coverage for tonight. JKL Patchy fog has continued to persist in the higher terrain with all of the low-level moisture present from the rain/snow yesterday into today. Some of the soundings also show some drying aloft that would limit the amount of ice present, so there is a slight chance of some freezing drizzle possible in eastern Montana early tomorrow morning. Things will start to clear out as some ridging starts to push in the from the west late Saturday night.
If you live around the Tampa Bay Area, you may occasionally feel a sprinkle through the remainder of the evening as cool/moist low-level air advects over relatively warmer waters. Moisture trapped in the low-levels will continue clouds between 020- 030 through morning with prevailing MVFR carried in northern TAF sites. High pressure will weaken and move through the region later this weekend as winds slacken off but seas will be slow to subside Saturday afternoon.
/issued 428 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ Persistent cloud cover through the day across the northern half or so of the area held temperatures in the mid/upper 40s, with more breaks to the south allowing warming into the lower 50s. Should enough clearing occur tonight, decreasing north winds and temperatures falling into the lower/mid 30s will result in decent radiational cooling, which will open the door to frost away from the immediate coast. While more in the way of sun is expected on SAT, temperatures are still only expected to warm into the lower/mid 50s.
Enjoy the rest of the mild afternoon before a storm system brushing by to our northeast brings gusty winds and cooler temperatures over the weekend. After another beautiful, although depressingly dry day, cooler temperatures are on the horizon for the weekend. A ridge building in from the eastern Pacific through the desert southwest will push temperatures back to above average by mid week with continued dry weather.
Stagnant Upper Midwest high pressure is resulting in little change in our weather, with continued cloudy (aside from a few thinning spots and transient sun peaks) and seasonable January temperatures. Therefore, I went warmer and toward the 90th percentile of NBM with lows in the lower to middle 20s.
233 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Patchy fog has continued to persist in the higher terrain with all of the low-level moisture present from the rain/snow yesterday into today. Some of the soundings also show some drying aloft that would limit the amount of ice present, so there is a slight chance of some freezing drizzle possible in eastern Montana early tomorrow morning. Things will start to clear out as some ridging starts to push in the from the west late Saturday night.
629 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Yet another short term period where the highlight is on stratus and fog development as the airmass remains nearly unchanged. While most if not all of the forecast area will experience at least patchy freezing fog overnight, the worst visibilities are expected to extend from southwest MN through central and east central MN, where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued.
309 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 In a persistent troughy pattern, we are looking for much of the same type of weather through Saturday night with low clouds, fog around and hit or miss light precipitation (flurries/sprinkles). Models are not suggesting widespread dense fog overnight, however with the low clouds around and low temp/dewpoint spreads have included patchy fog potential for much of south central Nebraska where SREF probs suggest lower vsbys are more likely.
Some places may stay in the lower 20s in Johnson county due to the clouds.
238 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 The trough just onshore will drop southeast, bringing a weak closed low across southwestern Colorado on Saturday. Current forecast and model guidance is all good for the rest, with highs around freezing on the plains Saturday and light winds.
An upper low is spinning east over the western Carolinas this afternoon.
Areas of fog/freezing fog are also expected to develop across the area late tonight through Saturday morning, thus have started off with MVFR visibility mention, and will monitor/amend as needed. /issued 245 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ A cold front moved into the region overnight, bringing unseasonably cold temperatures and to the area, and even fog/stratus to the NE Permian Basin, which is currently playing hob on expected afternoon highs. Upstream, an upper trough has made landfall in the PacNW, and is forecast to dig down to the Four Corners by 18Z Saturday, the timing of which is consistent w/past model runs.
Widespread valley freezing fog will likely return late tonight and early tomorrow morning, particularly for the valleys in western Montana. Forecast models continued the trend this afternoon with weakening the incoming low pressure for this evening and overnight. Very little impacts are now expected for north-central Idaho, with the only locations expected to see more than an inch of snow, being the higher mountains of Idaho County and possibly White Bird Hill.
334 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Upper trough over the region remains in place with stagnant flow aloft. There is some indication that there could be some freezing drizzle over central to NW SD overnight given lack of ice production. Main southern periphery impulse will dive SE across the Rockies through Sat, as a weak upper trough influence slides across the region.
217 PM PST Fri Jan 8 2021 A cold front will continue to track through northern Nevada with gusty winds and a few spotty showers winding down this evening. High pressure will then take hold with a dry weekend, near average temperatures and light winds prevailing. A cold front is currently sweeping its way across northern Nevada with current gusts generally in the 35-45 mph range. Afternoon highs should reach into the low to mid 40s across Sierra and western Nevada valleys. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build off the California coast which will allow temperatures to increase through the weekend, lighten winds, and bring partly cloudy skies to the region.
No real change in the pattern through Saturday morning so expect the fog, drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light bouts of snow to continue.
-- Chilly night -- Satellite images show clouds gradually thinning and evaporating over much of the lower peninsula from low-level subsidence this afternoon. Can't rule out some areas of freezing fog, particularly in northern portions of Central Michigan.
644 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 A low pressure system to crossing to our south will pull away by tonight with dry weather then expected through the weekend.
There is little if any lift, but there is a little bit of depth to the low-level saturated layer below a dry pocket. So although it will not be completely impossible to get some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle, there is not enough indication of this to include in the forecast for now.
948 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Upper trough over the region remains in place with stagnant flow aloft. There is some indication that there could be some freezing drizzle over central to NW SD overnight given lack of ice production. Main southern periphery impulse will dive SE across the Rockies through Sat, as a weak upper trough influence slides across the region.
1101 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Low pressure scooting east off the Outer Banks of NC will followed by a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft building SE over the region.
122 AM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Low pressure scooting east off the Outer Banks of NC will followed by a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft building SE over the region.
If you live around the Tampa Bay Area, you may occasionally feel a sprinkle through the remainder of the evening as cool/moist low-level air advects over relatively warmer waters. High pressure will weaken and move through the region later this weekend as winds slacken off but seas will be slow to subside Saturday afternoon.
1036 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 High and mid-level clouds will continue to invade the CWA from the west as a closed low drives across the Great Basin. As the center of the low dips southeast across Utah, scattered snow showers will materialize over the Eastern Uintas tonight before spreading into western Colorado high country Saturday morning. QG forcing maximizes early afternoon Saturday, however, by this time the closed low will be centered over northern New Mexico. Moisture wrapped around the northwest periphery of the low may maintain showers in these areas through the evening, though, we will not be on the favorable side of upslope flow. Cloud cover will moderate lows overnight tonight, with slightly cooler temperatures expected Saturday.
Light valley rain/snow and mountain snow associated with an upper trough will continue in southwest Idaho, but is still expected to diminish by midnight for most areas. Residual water could freeze overnight on untreated surfaces as temperatures fall below freezing by early Saturday morning. An upper ridge will build in from the west bringing dry conditions by Saturday afternoon.
Odds on seeing a few flurries and patchy freezing drizzle are not strong, nor are they zero, and seem appropriately mentioned west of the James River where weak lift in upper cloud-bearing level suggested. Tonight: Once the sun sets we should begin to see stratus settle back to the ground, especially across the Buffalo Ridge areas of Minnesota, South Dakota, and Iowa. Further west, model guidance showing deeper saturation in the low- lvls underneath a low-lvl wave of energy moving through the area. There may be enough convergence to spur the development of freezing drizzle or snow flurries through the central part of the state into Saturday. The abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than most guidance suggests, and have boosted overnight lows.
1057 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Yet another short term period where the highlight is on stratus and fog development as the airmass remains nearly unchanged. While most if not all of the forecast area will experience at least patchy freezing fog overnight, the worst visibilities are expected to extend from southwest MN through central and east central MN, where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued.
Then during the afternoon the mid level trof axis will play a role in enhancing mid level forcing a bit. Attention then turns to next upper low currently in the nw Nevada/Oregon area.
1259 AM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 High pressure builds over the Ohio Valley this weekend allowing for the possibility of some breaks of sunshine.
Low temperatures are expected to fall to or just below freezing by tomorrow morning. An upper level low will track over the Mid-South tonight into Saturday morning. The upper low could bring scattered flurries to portions of the Mid-South, much like what occurred this morning across the Memphis Metro area.
This comes from sub- freezing temperatures expected area-wide and lingering moisture from earlier snowfall and rain. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 41 25 47 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 38 22 44 27 / 20 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 27 39 22 43 27 / 10 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 36 19 46 24 / 40 10 0 0 0.
Only concerns during these initial 18 hours is the potential for freezing fog at AMA and GUY during the early morning hours. Some areas of freezing fog can be expected across the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle after about 08Z to 10Z Saturday.
201 AM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 Water vapor satellite this morning shows a short wave trough near Lake Winnipeg. In the low levels, the area of high pressure centered over Minnesota will drift slowly south and remain over the region. Forecast soundings show no change in the low level moisture remaining trapped under the inversion. This will keep the low clouds in place over the region, but there is little to no moisture above the inversion for the short wave trough to work with. As a result, do not plan to include any precipitation mention with this passage of the short wave trough.
330 AM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will build slowly SE into the region through the weekend.
Have tried to show this in the 00z TAF package, hanging on to the low ceilings at the ELD/MLU and LFK terminals longer into the overnight hours.
141 AM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Low pressure scooting east off the Outer Banks of NC will followed by a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft building SE over the region.
Some weak returns on radar this evening producing some light drizzle/freezing drizzle/light snow. No real change in the pattern through Saturday morning so expect the fog, drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light bouts of snow to continue.
With some breaks in the clouds today, we could see a few locations approach the lower 40s but those that remain overcast will likely remain in the low to mid 30s once again with weak H85 cold air advection progged to continue across the area.
Temperatures will be down to freezing by daybreak in central Louisiana. /issued 428 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ Persistent cloud cover through the day across the northern half or so of the area held temperatures in the mid/upper 40s, with more breaks to the south allowing warming into the lower 50s. Should enough clearing occur tonight, decreasing north winds and temperatures falling into the lower/mid 30s will result in decent radiational cooling, which will open the door to frost away from the immediate coast. While more in the way of sun is expected on SAT, temperatures are still only expected to warm into the lower/mid 50s.
Generally zonal to slightly west-northwesterly flow aloft persists through tonight into Saturday before turning purely zonal by Saturday night with the approach of a transient upper level ridge from the west. At the surface, high pressure continues to nose its way into the region, dominating the eastern CONUS through the period and allowing for a dry forecast. Expect lows to mostly be in the lower 30's west of I-65, with middle 30's along and east of I-65. If this holds true, could see temperatures staying in the lower 40's for most locations again, with middle to upper 40's across coastal counties. If cloud cover can break by early afternoon, then temperatures could verify several degrees warmer.
Influence from this passing wave however is impacting the the low level cloud field and the updated forecast will adjust for observed trends and incorporate latest short term guidance in evolution of clouds through early Saturday.
At the surface, high pressure will build in through the day and tonight. Highs today will stay on the cool side ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s (below normal) with lows tonight in the upper 20s to around freezing.
This comes from sub- freezing temperatures expected area-wide and lingering moisture from earlier snowfall and rain. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 41 25 47 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 38 22 44 27 / 20 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 27 39 22 43 27 / 10 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 36 19 46 24 / 40 10 0 0 0.
Time height sections show plenty of moisture continuing in the low levels continuing this morning. There will be some weak lift in the low levels today as well.
350 AM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 - A sunny Saturday expected - Clouds return tonight and last through the coming week - Trend toward colder with snow remains Friday and beyond - A sunny Saturday expected Today should be a mostly sunny day across most of the area once the low clouds near I-94 move out, shortly after sunrise.
1116 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 The region will be locked into a persistent, quiet weather pattern through the weekend and much of the next work week with broad high pressure building in from the west and low pressure systems missing us to the south and north. Compact upper low will rotate through the Bay of Fundy tonight with a few snow showers across northern and eastern zones this evening. Quiet weather is expected through the weekend as low pressure tracks well southeast of New England and high pressure builds in from the west. Saturday night will be slightly cooler than tonight with lows ranging to near 10 degrees north and near 20 degrees along the coast. Weak northern stream short wave troughs occasionally pass through but they will be moisture-starved and provide very little opportunity for precipitation.