Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current satellite shows a longwave upper trough overhead. Today, expect the upper trough to continue to slide eastward. As the trough exits, northwesterly flow aloft will set up overhead.
For tonight, dewpoints will remain in the lower 20s and with clear skies and light winds, another cold night is expected.
Very cold temperatures are expected in the north-central Friday morning as high pressure builds in behind a cold front. Early this morning, the synoptic picture was highlighted by a strong trough over the south-central CONUS, a closed Hudson Bay Low, and a broad ridge over the eastern Pacific. A mid-level impulse was over North Dakota with its diffuse warm front interacting with the Hudson Bay front to produce somewhat of a quasi-stationary boundary across northern North Dakota this morning.
404 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 A large upper trough is currently over the central part of the country and will gradually move east today. Temperatures are well below freezing across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. These conditions along with recent snowfall have contributed to freezing fog across some isolated locations. Freezing fog will continue to be possible this morning as temperatures stay below freezing. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning although it may only last a fairly short time.
Beyond that, a potent full- latitude trough reaching from the Great Lakes equatorward to Old Mexico today, will translate east northeastward and slowly dampen out late Friday into early this weekend. Given the progressive and intense cyclonic system, a cold front preceded and accompanied by a swath of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will race eastward into the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico late tonight, to along the Lower Keys and the adjacent nearshore and surrounding offshore waters early Friday morning. Thereafter, high pressure over the Sunshine State Friday night will slide into the western north Atlantic Ocean.
Daily high temperatures could get to just above freezing and would change some of the snow over to rain during the warmest parts of the next several days.
Lingering snow showers will end Friday night as a trough moves eastward away from the Upper Midwest.
trailing a cold front southward into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Recent radar trends show a plethora of discrete to semi-discrete elevated convection on the cold side of the surface cold front currently located along the I-59 corridor in southeastern Mississippi.
A ridge of high pressure tries to build into the region from the south with some temporary drier conditions expected over portions of Central Oregon.
Today: An upper level trough axis continues to move across the forecast area this morning and should be well to the east of the area by noon today. At the surface, an area of low pressure is currently moving southeast across the western Dakotas and is forecast to be centered over eastern Nebraska by 00Z this evening. This will drag a cold front through the forecast area overnight and increasing snow chances along with it.
Wind chill values early this morning may dip into the low to mid 30s across open interior spaces. The 500 mb trough axis over the Texas Big Bend region early this morning will swing over the area later this morning into the afternoon. At the surface, moderate northwest winds will continue this morning as high pressure builds into the area.
/issued 404 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ A large upper trough is currently over the central part of the country and will gradually move east today. Temperatures are well below freezing across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. These conditions along with recent snowfall have contributed to freezing fog across some isolated locations. Freezing fog will continue to be possible this morning as temperatures stay below freezing. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning although it may only last a fairly short time.
523 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Main upper trough was still west of the CWA early this morning with 850 mb front along the I44 corridor and the surface front over the OH/TN valley.
522 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 VFR with dry northwest flow aloft in wake of upper trough moving to the east. /issued 405 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Cold temperatures have set in behind the deep upper level trough currently exiting to the east.
405 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Cold temperatures have set in behind the deep upper level trough currently exiting to the east.
508 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Areas of light snow will linger into this evening across eastern Illinois, but a drying trend is expected west of I-55 as high pressure edges toward the Mississippi River. Southeast third of the forecast area has seen some periodic snow flurries or freezing drizzle, though this has been diminishing as of late.
Tornado Watch 25 was cancelled for the remainder of the CWA at 09Z, as a strong cold front exits the CWA, taking the threat of severe weather along with it. However, elevated showers and isolated storms remain in the front's wake, ahead of the strong trough swinging east across the plains states. However, light rain will remain in the forecast for much of the CWA today as the upper trough finally swings into the region this afternoon. As the trough exits the region overnight, some precipitation will linger as moisture wraps around the back side of it. As noticeably colder drier air continues advecting into the region, temperatures will fall into the low and middle 30s.
238 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 Upper air analysis shows deep upper trough axis extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Could see a rain/snow mix initially this afternoon before surface temperatures cool enough, although wet-bulbs near freezing should prevent a prolonged period of mixed precip.
Pacific high pressure will remain in control through Friday, with moderating temperatures and a mix of morning coastal clouds and sunshine.
Northeast winds across warmer Lake Michigan waters may cause a light lake effect snow band this morning and early afternoon.
Today, an upper trough axis dropping south through the Plains will move northeast into the Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, forcing the warm front over eastern KY towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The more steady rain showers will move east with the front as the LLJ response to divergence ahead of the upper trough moves east. Highs today are expected in the mid 30 across southern Indiana to near 50 on the other side of the warm front in the area of Clinton County, KY. This provides enough forcing to cause snow showers as the dendritic growth zone becomes saturated and the air stays below freezing to the ground.
/Today through Friday Night/ Lift associated with the upper trof axis that extends from the wrn Great Lakes through the Big Bend region of TX continues to generate bands of precip across our area early this morning. Have heard of a few reports of some light snow accum on grassy surfaces in NE TX/SE OK, so have issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight very light accums and perhaps the remote possibility of a slick rural bridge. Some lingering light rain/drizzle will continue to be possible until the trof axis moves ovhd this aftn, so have left some 20 PoPs across our ern areas.
359 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 Upper air analysis shows deep upper trough axis extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Could see a rain/snow mix initially this afternoon before surface temperatures cool enough, although wet-bulbs near freezing should prevent a prolonged period of mixed precip.
303 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 2130Z infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show the upper level trough axis just east of the Tri-State area oriented from northeast to southwest.
The pattern in place support continued cloud and precipitation development as the warm and humid air is lifted over the cooler air near the surface.
The increase in snow levels have and will continue to result in freezing rain and snow mix through this morning for elevations below 4500 feet.
351 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Today: An upper level trough axis continues to move across the forecast area this morning and should be well to the east of the area by noon today. At the surface, an area of low pressure is currently moving southeast across the western Dakotas and is forecast to be centered over eastern Nebraska by 00Z this evening. This will drag a cold front through the forecast area overnight and increasing snow chances along with it.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours as subsidence increases across the region as a 500mb trough axis moves eastward across the state today. Wind chill values early this morning may dip into the low to mid 30s across open interior spaces. The 500 mb trough axis over the Texas Big Bend region early this morning will swing over the area later this morning into the afternoon. At the surface, moderate northwest winds will continue this morning as high pressure builds into the area.
147 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 An approaching strong cold front will move through the forecast area this evening.
/issued 1042 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Satellite imagery this morning depicts a deep trough over the Plains pulling moisture into the area. GOES-16 Satellite trends early this morning depict a deep upper level trough axis stretching from Northern Minnesota back through the Central and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front is located from Middle Tennessee back through Central Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana.
We have deviated quite abit from guidance (on the low side) despite the west surface winds expected tonight. Refreeze is likely overnight for any remaining water/ice/snow on roadways/bridges/parking lots and we will reissue the Special Weather Statement.
Winter weather continues to impact the region late this morning, as the back edge of the Low pressure system pushes through Illinois. This will linger snow flurries and some light drizzle to freezing drizzle across central and southeast Illinois today.
The highest POPS near 40 percent this evening and overnight will be across Sheridan and Cherry County where snowfall amounts up to a half inch expected. Colder air will be drawn into the area with highs to range from the low 20s far northeast to the upper 30s across the southwest.
128 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 An approaching strong cold front will move through the forecast area this evening.
Byrd Early this morning, an upper level TROF axis was over the Plains with two upper level disturbances of interest.
High pressure aloft locked in over the eastern Pacific will keep Utah under a north to northwest flow aloft through the end of the week. Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across the Intermountain Region this morning, downstream from a mean mid level ridge centered off the Pacific Coast. As the column continues to slowly warm will likely see most northern valleys transition from snow to rain this afternoon, and may be able to cancel some valley winter weather advisories early, while strong winds and periods of snow continue across the higher terrain through tonight and into the day Friday.
With a snow pack that stretches southwest to northeast across the center of Missouri from yesterday's storm, clearing skies and lighter winds, will see temperatures drop into the teens tonight in this area, while areas to the east and southeast will be in the low to mid 20s.
Temperatures were cooler than initially thought, so lowered highs, mainly in the east. Thinking surface will remain above freezing until just before day Friday with thinning clouds, so any falling precip will melt and/or be done by daybreak.
208 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 Rain will transition to snow overnight as low pressure strengthens and lifts northeastward toward New England.
234 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 An upper level trough is currently moving across the area. Lows tonight will drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s. Highs on Friday will warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Dry, very cool and tranquil weather continues tonight in the wake of last night's upper trough axis. With dry southwest flow in the low levels, high temps should easily rebound to above normal territory.
Expect cold low in the lower 20s or upper teens across most of Fisher Country, northeast into northern Jones and Haskell counties due to this snowcover helping to radiate heat from the surface. Dewpoints are currently in the mid 20s across the same area, so temperatures will have to fall through current dewpoints to get into the teens, which is possible, but should at least slow the cooling, so have kept lows in the low 20s in that area.
/issued 405 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Cold temperatures have set in behind the deep upper level trough currently exiting to the east.
Dry for much of the area on Friday with highs near freezing. The main weather driver over the next 24 hours are an upper-level trough (500 mb) digging through the Mississippi River Valley and an 850-mb low moving over the eastern Great Lakes. A local 30-35 knot 850 mb jet on the west side of the low appears responsible for an area of snow located over northeast IL early this afternoon. As the 500-mb trough lifts east toward the mid- Atlantic, this 850-mb low is forecast to track east through our area tonight. The expectation is that snow will become more likely over any freezing drizzle through time.
241 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 The longwave trough that was overhead early this morning has pushed east of the Panhandles this afternoon, leaving us in northwest flow aloft. Low pressure at the surface level continues swinging eastward through the Plains and will maintain the northerly flow as well.
1009 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Upper level trough axis slow to clear the forecast area this morning. Temperatures for the afternoon look good, with cooler readings expected due to snow cover across northeast Oklahoma.
(This evening through Friday) The large trough that brought heavy snowfall to the region yesterday continues to move eastward this afternoon. Temperatures have remained 10 to 15 degrees cooler over the snowpack compared to areas that received little to no appreciable snow. The temperature difference tonight will not be quite as substantial, but still expect portions of western north Texas northeastward to central Oklahoma will see lows 5-10 degrees cooler than other parts of the area.
The cold front remains draped across the southeastern portions of the CWA with most locations north and west of a line from Fergus Falls to Detroit Lakes now seeing north to northwest winds.
Trough axis finally exiting eastward at midday, with mainly a clear sky across SW KS. Tonight will be much milder than the last two nights, despite a weak cold front traversing SW KS and weak cold advection at 850 mb.
Warmer weather is expected over the weekend as the longwave trof exits to our west and heights rise as the upper flow becomes more zonal.
312 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 Rain will transition to snow overnight as low pressure strengthens and lifts northeastward toward New England.
/Issued 1009 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Upper level trough axis slow to clear the forecast area this morning. Temperatures for the afternoon look good, with cooler readings expected due to snow cover across northeast Oklahoma.
1106 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Main upper trough was still west of the CWA early this morning with 850 mb front along the I44 corridor and the surface front over the OH/TN valley.
1042 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Satellite imagery this morning depicts a deep trough over the Plains pulling moisture into the area. GOES-16 Satellite trends early this morning depict a deep upper level trough axis stretching from Northern Minnesota back through the Central and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front is located from Middle Tennessee back through Central Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana.
We have sided slightly towards the cooler bias corrected MOS guidance. Despite the low dew points in place, there may be just enough residual moisture in place well east of I-35 and north of I-10 to allow for patchy frost to develop early Friday morning.
Steady rainfall ending with cold front moving east across the eastern Tennessee Valley.
1023 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 Upper air analysis shows deep upper trough axis extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Could see a rain/snow mix initially this afternoon before surface temperatures cool enough, although wet-bulbs near freezing should prevent a prolonged period of mixed precip.
Surface temperatures will likely be just above freezing, falling into the upper 20s and lows 30s by 6 AM. The highest amounts will be focused east of I-65 and along the Cumberland Plateau.
341 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 The early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a deep upper trough axis over the Eastern Great Plains, with upper ridges positioned off the West and East Coasts. Lowest wind chills will be confined to the highest elevations, generally -10 to -20 degrees.
654 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 (This evening through Friday) The large trough that brought heavy snowfall to the region yesterday continues to move eastward this afternoon. Temperatures have remained 10 to 15 degrees cooler over the snowpack compared to areas that received little to no appreciable snow. The temperature difference tonight will not be quite as substantial, but still expect portions of western north Texas northeastward to central Oklahoma will see lows 5-10 degrees cooler than other parts of the area.
529 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Water Vapor and IR satellite clearly show an abnormally deep long wave trough over the central CONUS extending down into Mexico. Our area falls right into the trough axis with a clearing of moisture and cloud cover from the region.
An upper level trough is currently moving across the area. Lows tonight will drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s. Highs on Friday will warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
An area of low pressure is currently moving across the eastern CWA where light snow is ongoing. With an Arctic high pressure over the CWA on Friday, highs will likely struggle to warm into the upper single digits above zero.
In some areas, temperatures have risen above freezing allowing snow to melt, causing wet and slushy surfaces. Abundant moisture spills into the area over the leading edge of a ridge located off the U. Along the eastern periphery of this moisture, sufficient short wave radiation is reaching the Earth's surface to allow for thursday's high temperatures to push into the low 40s in some areas of central Montana. The valleys and plains of south central and southwest Montana are experiencing mainly light snowfall where temperatures are below freezing, and rainfall in those areas where temperatures have warmed above 32F.
The back edge of the large scale Low pressure system is exiting east central Illinois this afternoon. Temperatures today struggled to reach freezing, and will cool back into the 20s overnight, before another near normal day Friday. With temps holding in the low 30s Friday, expecting the Clipper system to remain all snow.
219 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 Today, 500 mb RAP analysis and water vapor imagery showed a large upper trough exiting the region to the east across the center of the CONUS. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than previous nights, as our cold air mass continues to shift east, mixing keeps winds up slightly, and cloud cover remains in place. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler behind a weak cold front, ranging in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Warmer weather is expected over the weekend as the longwave trof exits to our east and heights rise as the upper flow becomes more zonal.
High cirrus clouds are moving into the region ahead of an approaching low pressure system, currently over the Dakotas.
Latest OHX sounding indicated a freezing level around 900 ft with a 1 to 2 thousand foot layer above that where the sounding was isothermal, perhaps a touch above 0c. Overall, this is slightly cooler than expected and could indicate that the changeover to snow may be an hour or two earlier than previously thought.
Today and Tomorrow: An upper level trough moved through the forecast area late this morning and cloud cover is building in behind it. Northwesterly flow will be dominate the next couple of days as a cold front will move through the area overnight. However, wind gusts up to 25 mph associated with the cold front could lead to reduced visibilities and hazardous travel. A combination of cold air advection and cloud cover will result in temperatures being about 10 degrees cooler on Friday than Thursday.
The early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a deep upper trough axis over the Eastern Great Plains, with upper ridges positioned off the West and East Coasts. Lowest wind chills will be confined to the highest elevations, generally -10 to -20 degrees.
434 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the eastern Dakotas, with cold front sliding south into the area.
501 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 An approaching strong cold front will move through the forecast area this evening.
Northwest flow is the predominant feature over the area between a trough whose axis is near the Mississippi River and a ridge off the West Coast.
High pressure overspreading the area will result in VFR conditions for much of the TAF period. Thus, temperatures will drop into the lower teens with a few locations hitting single digits.
Cool high pressure will build in late Friday and persist through the weekend. Diminishing winds then into Fri night as the pressure gradient relaxes, also allowing temps to drop into the low-mid 30s.
302 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 An area of low pressure is currently moving across the eastern CWA where light snow is ongoing. With an Arctic high pressure over the CWA on Friday, highs will likely struggle to warm into the upper single digits above zero.
303 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Sunny skies continue under surface ridging this afternoon, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Any light snow should end Friday night, as weak ridging builds in.
A 135-140kt 300mb jet associated with the trough will rotate across the Gulf coast states toward the southern Appalachians overnight placing the area under the favored left exit region of the jet. Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 42 32 50 31 / 60 30 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 39 31 46 29 / 100 50 10 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 34 39 30 46 28 / 90 50 10 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 38 27 42 28 / 100 70 30 40 30 TN.
359 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 High cirrus clouds are moving into the region ahead of an approaching low pressure system, currently over the Dakotas.
532 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Sunny skies continue under surface ridging this afternoon, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Any light snow should end Friday night, as weak ridging builds in.
A potent mid-level trof is pivoting through the Mid-South this evening. Went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a large part of the Mid- South mainly due to the threat of slick bridges and overpasses. /issued 347 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Satellite imagery this morning depicts a deep trough over the Plains pulling moisture into the area. Lows tonight will generally be below freezing for most of the Mid-South.
Thus, temperatures will drop into the lower teens with a few locations hitting single digits.
The base of a longwave trough was located over the south central CONUS, with ridging over the Pacific and northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front was draped from Beach to Linton. As the high pressure slides through eastern North Dakota, expect highs temperatures ranging from the single digits in the east to the lower 30s in the west.
/issued 312 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Wx map shows continued tight pressure gradient between the exiting low pressure to the east and relatively higher pressure over TX. Weak but cold high pressure will settle over the region overnight with winds diminishing after sunset this evening, with the mid to upper level trough from Canada to the Gulf over the region.
/issued 347 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Satellite imagery this morning depicts a deep trough over the Plains pulling moisture into the area. Lows tonight will generally be below freezing for most of the Mid-South.