Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1144 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016 Upper level trough is moving through the central Plains this morning. This will drag a cold front across the CWA today however, with shallow moisture and weak forcing precipitation will be pretty meager with this system. Model soundings are suggesting mainly light drizzle developing through the morning hours with the potential for the drizzle to be of the freezing variety across northeastern Missouri where temperatures are hovering right around freezing. Tonight the upper level trough will rotate through the area with CAA at the surface on the back side of the cold front. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the week as clouds and continued CAA will hold temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING THE APPROACHING OF A COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS BELOW 2500 FEET SHOULD GENERALLY BE A BIT COOLER TODAY DUE TO A COLDER START AND THE WEAK INVERSIONS.
EXPECT THE RIDGE TO INFLUENCE THE SAGE BRUSH STATE MOST OF THE WEEK.
BUT AM STILL UNSURE OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WITH 925 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -10 C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE METRO TAF SITES. HAVE SEEN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF GUSTS IN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL PERSIST FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO AT EACH SITE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST AT OR ABOVE 10KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS. FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES WILL PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY.
1104 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH DRIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
TODAY: COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. VERY TRANSIENT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES IN THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS. TUE NIGHT-WED: MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT GIVEN RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH PWATS AROUND HALF AN INCH TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND AN ISOLATED 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FORMAN TO COLFAX TO DETROIT LAKES TO BEMIDJI WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALVES OF GRANT. AS THE WAVE LIFTS DEPARTS WILL KEEP A FLURRY AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE LOWER BLYR SATURATED AND LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF WAA TO THE REGION WITH 500MB RIDGE FROM THE WEST PUSHING EAST AND 850MB TEMPS ON THE RISE.
ALREADY IN SW FLOW AS LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MIDDLE CONUS. UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO NW CANADA. TYPICALLY THESE AIRMASSES MODERATE BUT 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES COULD SEE TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING EVEN OVER FAR NORTH GA BY 12Z WED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE AREAS IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE AT LEAST A TRACE OF SNOW COVER REMAINS ON THE GROUND TO THE LOW TO MID 4OS ELSEWHERE. AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL WARMER. MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND STALL OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
Low pressure along the IA/IL border this evening will head to the northeast, crossing Michigan tonight and pulling its cold front through southern Indiana and central Kentucky during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight are expected to remain a few degrees above freezing under overcast skies and with a steady southerly wind around 10 mph. Also, there will be a warm layer just a few thousand feet off the ground with temperatures in the lower 40s. High pressure will begin to build in from the west Tuesday night, but low level moisture moisture may get trapped under a sharp inversion, leading to a continuation of mostly cloudy skies.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 43 53 35 / 0 30 90 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 38 51 33 / 0 30 80 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 39 49 32 / 0 40 90 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 33 48 33 / 0 10 70 70.
222 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 An upper trough will traverse the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, and along with a colder airmass moving into the region at the surface, result in a mix of rain and snow across the forecast area. Models have come into reasonable agreement that the ua trough will remain open and progressive, so have based precipitation chances on a variety of same. If surface temperatures end up colder in northern Lea and Eddy counties, or heavier precipitation falls in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains than currently expected, these areas would be the most likely to see a short fused Winter Weather Advisory from late tonight into Tuesday morning.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIX.
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER MISSOURI AND HEADING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT A WARMER. THIS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
326 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST TUESDAY.
1207 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AND THEN FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE COLDER CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
326 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 NICE CHANGE OF PACE AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED TODAY WITH HIGHS COMING BACK ABOVE FREEZING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MAIN ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST WAS TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY SOME MODEST LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
Should see good cold advection behind the front, but the low is moving northeast and the wind never really veers beyond about 290- 300 degrees, so this won't be an Arctic outbreak or anything.
307 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. GIVEN LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C. MAINTAINED A PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TURNING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH OF THIS LATTER TROUGH. A SWATH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL WI. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES RELATED TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. AS THE LOW OVER MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE QUAD CITIES TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.
Wind gusts over 30 mph will continue, with the highest gust observed so far being 42 mph at Garden City. Temperatures will struggle into the lower 40s this afternoon, but winds chills will make it feel much more uncomfortable. A quiet dry weather pattern is expected to continue through the end of the week as high pressure dominates the Central Plains.
THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /800MB/ HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA FROM AUSTIN MN TO WABASHA TO TEMPEAULEAU COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SUPERCOOLED LIQUID CLOUD. WE COULD SEE FZDZ CONTINUE AWAY FROM THIS BAND FOR 2-3 HOURS YET UNTIL MAIN UPPER LOW COMES IN. HAVE LINGERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES I THE LOW- LEVELS.
259 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
241 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RAPIDLY INCREASES. WIDESPREAD RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
317 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE REGION AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THERE IS ALSO AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
240 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT ACROSS OUR AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED BUT ARE NEAR LATE JANUARY NORMALS.
DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES SEEN IN NW AL. BELIEVE THE LOWEST ONE OR TWO THOUSAND FEET WILL BE HARD TO SATURATE. TEMPO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 14Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
The latest runs of the RAP continue to show increasing low level moisture convergence developing during the morning under mid level ascent ahead of the mid level trough that is currently over Central Plains. So have started with just slight chances over the western half of the CWA early this morning and gradually increase chances during the day, saving the best chances for when the cold front will move across the area during the afternoon and early evening. We will have another day with above normal temperatures before the cold front moves through. Forecast soundings are showing the lower atmosphere quickly cooling down behind the front, so there may be some snow mixing in with the rain before the precipitation ends tonight.
IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL WARMER AS THERE WILL BE A LOT MORE SUN ALONG WITH LESS WIND.
Given current satellite trends though have leaned towards not including the lower clouds at most sites overnight. This high should continue to shift east by sunrise, with light return flow beginning at the surface and warming temperatures just above the near-surface layer. A warmer day is expected as compared to yesterday, with highs in the low-mid 60s.
209 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
Wind gusts over 30 mph will continue, with the highest gust observed so far being 42 mph at Garden City. Temperatures will struggle into the lower 40s this afternoon, but winds chills will make it feel much more uncomfortable.
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION STEMS FROM THE FACT THAT THE SATURATION AND LIFT IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AND THE RESULT IS FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IN THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.
331 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB SOME AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR OVERRRUNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
As a cold front moves into the Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley tonight, rain chances will begin to return to the southeast. This morning was the last morning for freezing temperatures for a while.
WHICH MEANS DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 40 CORRIDOR FROM TOWN TO THE UT/CO BORDER. SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY TOMORROW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP IS LOCATED FROM DENVER TO YUMA AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN AND WILL BE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED.
301 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 Compact upper level system moving across the Midwest this afternoon with trailing cold front moving through northwest AR at the present time. which should finally scour the low levels and begin a trend toward above normal temperatures during the last half of the week. A shift in the upper level pattern occurs late in the period as an upper trough develops to our west.
337 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) The cold front has moved across West Central Texas this afternoon, however the low level cold air advection is lagging behind. For Tuesday, an upper level trough will move into the Southern Plains with a chance of precipitation across much of West Central Texas. 21 (Tuesday night through next Monday) By Tuesday evening, the upper level low is expected to be over southeastern NM or the Upper Trans Pecos of west Texas. With the low going right over this area, will keep the slight chance of precipitation in the forecast for our southwestern areas.
Winds will then shift north early afternoon as cold front moves through. /issued 352 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016/ (Today and tonight) A cold front will move through West Central Texas today, however, temperatures will only be slightly cooler. The Big Country will be most affected by the front, with cooler highs in the lower 60s.
148 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 COLD FRONT AND RAIN PUSHES EAST TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T FALL OFF MUCH UNTIL AFTER 260600Z WHEN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
Upper ridge moves overhead today and will maintain dry weather for the region through much of the week with the main weather impact likely to be areas of late night and morning valley fog.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
1137 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016 COLD FRONT JUST W OF KDFW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT SFC FRONT EXTENDS FARTHER SW OF THE LOW INTO ERN/SE OK AND NCNTRL TX AS OF LATE MORNING.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST MUCH OF THIS WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
407 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS BELOW 2500 FEET SHOULD GENERALLY BE A BIT COOLER TODAY DUE TO A COLDER START AND THE WEAK INVERSIONS. EASTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL YIELD SINKING MOTION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW DEEPEN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE EAST GREAT LAKES REGION TO TEXAS. MOISTURE AXIS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE FRONTAL PUSH AT THE SURFACE.
PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION EVENT AND CLEAR THINGS OUT. A SERIES OF QUICKLY TRANSLATING RIDGES AND COMPACT WAVES WILL THEN TRAVEL THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
234 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 A cold frontal boundary will continue to push through the region today. The main challenge looks to be the timing of the low level stratus deck behind the front. Toward the end of the week and into the weekend a more zonal flow will evolve allowing for warmer temperatures by the end of the work week.
310 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD OUT OF THE LOW INTO CENTRAL TX, AND STRONG SWLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. STARTING WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH VALUES NEAR 50 DEGREES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MONTANA. HEIGHTS THEN BUILD FOR TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST MOVING IN.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER LRD HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS AND PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
With H85 temps near or below zero the higher elevations of the Guadalupes and Davis Mtns could see all snow. Zonal flow aloft along with increasing sfc downslope flow will bring warmer temps and dry weather to the area.
There could also be a few pockets of freezing drizzle in the morning depending on how saturated mid levels of the atmosphere become. Towards the surface, a cold front that moved through the area last night will continue to push eastward into the Mississippi Valley today with cold air advection in place across the area. The pressure gradient will be tight as high pressure builds into the area leading to strong north to northwest winds across the area. Lows tonight should dip into the lower 20s with a possibility of upper teens across some areas of west central Kansas. A quiet dry weather pattern is expected to continue through the end of the week as high pressure dominates the Central Plains.
252 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GUIDANCE WITH SNOW COVER WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND AROUND 10F IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
252 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 AT 5H THERE IS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST. WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FL. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE FROM GA TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
451 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AND OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RETROGRADES TONIGHT AND BECOMES PART OF THE RIDGE THAT AMPLIFIES AND EXTENDS FROM BAJA.
305 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AND RADAR RETURNS BOTH INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED LOW CENTERED A LITTLE EASTWARD OF MONTROSE THIS MORNING. MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE NE STILL FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS. A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ALLOWING PRECIP TO GET GOING AGAIN FOR THE SAN JUANS.
GOES sounder data indicates this as well, with a swath of moisture slowly heading west as a weak upper low spins over Georgia. Otherwise the forecast is quiet with high pressure in control of our weather. Temperatures should be roughly 2 degrees warmer tomorrow than today, thanks to airmass modification.
347 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS CURRENTLY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY PROMOTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH MANY AREAS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
634 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE REGION WILL LEAVE BEHIND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM REFLECTS ONLY WEAKLY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND MOVING LITTLE.
BUT THOSE TOO WILL BE ENDING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH GLIDES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTENING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE CYCLONE. BUT MOST FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RIDGES AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ARE MARGINAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WEST/EAST ACROSS THE REGION HAS HELPED TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. POPS FOR OUR AREA SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGINS TO WANE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
230 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK.