Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With surface and upper ridging continuing to build over the area, most locations will remain dry through this evening as subsidence and drier air aloft will limit storm development. Deep layer ridging will be in place through the short term period, yielding below average shower and thunderstorm chances and above average afternoon high temperatures. The latest operational guidance remains in good agreement in a push of drier air moving into the region late Thursday and Friday around the southern periphery of the high.
649 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. Boundary layer temperatures along with local scheme suggests it will be warmer today than yesterday by 1 to 2 degrees. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. Clear skies remain across the region as the upper level ridge remains in place.
High pressure will maintain hot and dry conditions through much of the remainder of the work week. This high will move east Friday allowing moisture to slowly increase from the south through the upcoming weekend.
1203 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Short Term (Tonight through Friday night): Upper level ridge out across the western CONUS will help keep the area in active northwest flow aloft through the short term period. Convergence along this cold front will be weak as it moves through the area this evening however, models do continue to want to develop scattered convection across the CWA. Highs tomorrow will be near normal behind the cold front with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Highs Friday, with additional cloud cover, will hold in the low to mid 80s. This weekend will see mostly northwest upper level flow as the upper level trough begins to move east of the area.
A broad upper level ridge will remain in place over the region through Friday. At the surface, high pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will bringing gusty northeast flow to the coastal mountains and gusty northerly winds during the afternoon and evening to the coast.
321 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2016 Very active period setting up with a strong cold front advancing east across the Great Basin. At this time, we expect a strong band of winds to set up from near Moab northeast to Craig as H7 speeds max kicks out ahead of the cold front. Northern zones may hold cloud cover in place a bit longer, but coldest conditions will be settling into those zones in closer proximity of the upper low that will be lifting across Wyoming. Temps may not dive below freezing in all valleys, but potential is there should winds totally shut down and skies clear out. Lower valleys like the Grand Valley will see more spotty freezing temps with locations like Fruita, Loma and Mack more susceptible to the freeze.
Satellite/surface obs showing clear skies this morning in the wake of mid/upper level trof advancing east of the region. Early morning clouds yesterday with aforementioned trof kept morning lows several degrees above that of this morning under clear skies. Anticipating a dry and pleasant day as dewpoints continue to remain on the low side. Afternoon highs will continue above the norm but overnight lows will be significantly warmer.
Patchy fog this morning, otherwise dry and warmer in short term. After a clear to partly cloudy night tonight with lows in the 50s, Tuesday will be a partly to mostly sunny day and warmer with above normal afternoon highs reaching 80 to 85.
353 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 After a dry start to the workweek, a large area of high pressure will build into New England and wedge down the east side of the Appalachians by Tuesday night. This feature will result in cooler weather conditions with increasing low level cloudiness per moist easterly wind flow off of the Atlantic. Weakening upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes is forecast to drift east across New England today, then off shore tonight.
An upper level ridge will continue to build over our region today. Temperatures should warm into the 70s and 80s across the region this afternoon as a warmer air mass moves into the region with a southerly return flow. Temperatures this week will generally be warmer than last week.
A second system will bring another chance of rain showers to much of the region on Monday along with cooler than average temperatures.
316 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Cold northwest flow will prevail as low pressure exits into the Rockies.
Cooler temperatures are in store today as a cold front moves through the area this morning.
646 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will build into the area. Visibilities have quickly fallen behind the last spoke of moisture pinwheeling around the departing upper low.
Otherwise, main story in the forecast is the approaching low pressure system, which will bring strong winds initially, followed by showers and thunderstorms. Soundings show good mixing in the lower levels as well, so should be able to mix stronger gusts down to the surface.
404 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 A large upper level low will lose it's grip on our weather as it moves into New England today. Upper low over the eastern Great Lakes to move into New England this afternoon. Highs to range from around 70 north to the lower/middle 70s south. The ridge axis slides a little east Tuesday with a southerly flow developing. Amplified upper air pattern will keep weather systems moving slow with broad trof developing over the western US.
312 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Low pressure will move across New York tonight and Monday bringing cloudy skies and a chance of light rain showers and even a slight chance of thunder to northern New York overnight. A gradual clearing trend will take place Monday into Tuesday followed by mainly sunny skies through the rest of the week as high pressure moves south from Canada. Coldest day will be Tuesday with highs ranging from the low 60s east of the Greens, to mid 60s and low 70s west.
An upper level trough currently over the Great Basin will move out into the Plains on Tuesday as an upper level ridge retreats to the south. Models continue trend of lessening dynamical forcing within a thin plume of deeper moisture ahead of the upper trough and surface dryline.
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 A partly to mostly sunny and breezy to windy day still looks good for today, as a strong upper low and cold front approach from the Rockies. For tonight the continued approach and arrival of the cold front, and upper impulses southeast of the upper low, should make for decent overall coverage of showers and storms spreading fairly quickly across the area from the west. Dynamics are not as strong as they will be further west, closer to the northeastward swinging upper low. Still feel the severe weather risk is on the low end for this event.
With the large and active low pressure system now pushing through the central and northern Rockies, widespread moderate to heavy rain showers are expected to continue over the next few days. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures an a more unstable atmosphere over our eastern zones could lead to marginally severe thunderstorms there this afternoon and evening with small hail and gusty winds being the main threats.
With an increase in cloud cover and cooler air advecting into the region from the north, temperatures will also be slightly cooler region-wide this afternoon. High pressure will then build over the eastern Pacific by midweek and build toward the coast late this week and into the upcoming weekend.
332 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 An upper level low will cross the region overnight into Monday. The high pressure ridge will remain over the area through the period. A filling upper level low will track through southwest Maine and into the Gulf of Maine bringing cloudy skies to central and Downeast Maine today. Skies will clear tonight as the low moves into the Gulf of Maine. H5 ridge axis will dominate the wx thru most of the extndd pd acrs the CWA as departing low mvs into the North Atlantic by the end of the week. Biggest fly in the ointment wl be eventual mvmnt of front and assoc H5 trof. GFS has slowed down mvmnt of bndry while EC rmns similar with its timing but slightly deeper with upr lvl trof.
Generally speaking, up to 4-5 inches of snow is likely 6000 feet and higher, with up to 10 inches possible in the highest of terrain. One thing of note is the more northward progression of moisture today into Tuesday as the low circulates around southwest Montana.
Upper low in se Oregon will track ese along the northern Nevada border today and tonight.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over Quebec extending southward across Eastern Conus this AM. into the Central Plains, overall ridging will remain in place across Eastern Conus. The upper flow is expected to get weaker as the upper trough pulls off to the east and weak ridging takes its place across Eastern Conus today in advance of our next system. So with all that said, should see less cloud cover today and will continue a no rain forecast, a slowly moderating airmass, and thus slightly warmer temperatures again for today. With only weak low level flow in the lower levels and from generally the east, we will keep lower humidity around for another day.
421 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 The upper low which was located across KY over the weekend continues to drift slowly eastward across the eastern Great Lakes region this morning, with a trailing trough axis pushing through the lower MS valley. Short range model guidance is in agreement that another weak mid- level vorticity maxima will track across the TN valley today, before the longwave trough axis clears the region to the east this evening.
with the upper ridging noted from the Srn Plains NNE across the Plains/Midwest and into Ontario expected to shift E to the MS Valley and Ern Great Lakes region. This will occur out ahead of the deep upper trough over the Great Basin. Sfc ridging will also persist across the region NE into the Great Lakes region for one more day as well.
Upper level ridging will spread from the plains into the MS River valley today. Concurrently, the Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of upper level ridging, with dry conditions and temps around 10 degrees above normal.
an upper trough will move into the northern and central High Plains today. A Pacific cold front will push through most of the area overnight, bringing in drier and cooler air to the west. Lows tonight to range from the lower to mid 40s west to the lower to mid 50s east.
309 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 An upper level low pressure system will finish slowly moving through the region today, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
558 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Dry and partly sunny conditions are expected today as high pressure builds into the region. Highs will be around 70 degrees with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s.
A mid to upper level trough will continue over the east/central Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. The ECMWF is in favor of cutting off a stronger low in the southern Gulf when compared to the GFS, and the GFS is more progressive with the next trough swinging into the central portion of the US.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low moving into the Northeastern U. as a ridge amplifies across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region. At the surface, a broad area of weak high pressure exist across much of the Southeastern U. The upper level closed low will continue to drift slowly to the southeast across the Northeastern U. as the ridge amplifies across the Great Lakes. Otherwise, temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday with highs topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s across most valley locations.
The long wave trough associated with this storm is centered over western third of the CONUS and another jet max moving around the western periphery of the trough is headed southward toward the central California region and will bring another bout of breezy to gusty winds across the area.
This seems to be associated with low level warm advection and the low level jet. Not a lot of drop off in the thermal fields today, and with the gusty south winds expected, going to go on the higher side of guidance for highs today. This changes somewhat by Tuesday night as the low level jet cranks up again.
315 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure will build southeast into the region and persist through mid-week. A deep upper level low over southern New England this morning will continue to slowly fill and open up through tonight as it drifts east-se. This action will allow an area of high pressure over the central Appalachians to strengthen and build southward along the spine of the Appalachians. The resultant nly low level flow will advect a drier and slightly cooler air mass into our region, with the better advection occurring tonight.
As the upper trough approaches on Tuesday, the vort max is well timed to support storm development tomorrow afternoon. Low level southerly flow will increase today and tonight advecting the better moisture north, but the higher dewpoints may still be a late arrival.
257 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 Weak low pressure over Lake Ontario will continue to move east of the area today. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the upper Mississippi Valley region today into the Great Lakes region by tonight and then east of the area by Tuesday.
A warm front will bring periods of light rain or drizzle to much the area today.
330 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Dry and partly sunny conditions are expected today as high pressure builds into the region. Highs will be around 70 degrees with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s.
340 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Low pressure will weaken as it moves into New England tonight. High pressure will build down from Canada mid week and persist through much of the rest of the work week. The pesky upper low will finally begin its exit from the region. Then, a cold front will pass through the area, and this front could bring some passing showers. models slowed it down a bit, but the persistent upper level low that has been responsible for the cloudy and damp weather the last several days should finally be off shore on Tuesday.
/issued 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016/ Closed upper low over the Great Lakes will drift eastward through tonight. This will leave GA in a weak upper trough but heights should gradually rise through Monday. High pressure building down the east coast on Monday should turn our winds to the northeast. troughing will persist along east slopes of Rockies. with weak ridging also in place aloft.
Broad High pressure stretching from the western Great lakes to the Ohio Valley will continue to dominate Indiana/s weather through the middle of the work week. The High will bring partly cloudy skies with dry weather through at least Tuesday night. along with temperatures warmer than recent days.
There is a short wave trough coming down the backside of the low, which will bring a trough back into the Gulf by tomorrow morning. As this occurs, a ridge, over the western Atlantic, will continue to weaken for the next several days.
Cool and windy weather is expected today as a dry cold front moves through the area.
649 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 A large upper level low will lose it's grip on our weather as it moves into New England today. Upper low over the eastern Great Lakes to move into New England this afternoon. Highs to range from around 70 north to the lower/middle 70s south. The ridge axis slides a little east Tuesday with a southerly flow developing. Amplified upper air pattern will keep weather systems moving slow with broad trof developing over the western US.
251 AM MST MON OCT 3 2016 Cooler and drier air behind an exiting low pressure system north of Arizona has settled into the Desert Southwest.
A deep upper level trough currently resides along an axis from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf. This trough will slowly move eastward, with its axis approaching our western areas later today.
312 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will build into the area. Visibilities are quickly falling behind the lake spoke of moisture pinwheeling around the departing upper low.
A warm front will bring periods of light rain or drizzle to much of the area today.
323 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure will build southeast into the region and persist through mid-week. A deep upper level low over southern New England this morning will continue to slowly fill and open up through tonight as it drifts east-se. This action will allow an area of high pressure over the central Appalachians to strengthen and build southward along the spine of the Appalachians. The resultant nly low level flow will advect a drier and slightly cooler air mass into our region, with the better advection occurring tonight.
A strong upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will progress eastward into the northern plains by Monday night and Tuesday. Lee troughing ahead of this feature will draw low level moisture into the plains. The southern edge of the upper level trough is expected to pass through western Kansas Tuesday evening.
As of 8Z, a deep upper level trough is located over Nevada. A strong upper level jet is rounding the base of the trough with sporadic convection ongoing over the Rockies. Based on the time arrival tool, the storms may reach the Mobridge area around 16Z. A frontal boundary and upper level trough will progress across the region tonight through Tuesday.
However, the main upper level trough axis associated with the low over the Great Lakes is still to our west. There may be just enough lift with this feature to allow for some cloud cover tonight, which may help to keep temps a degree or two warmer than yesterday evening. Dewpoints have increased into the lower 50s for much of the area and we could see patchy fog again tonight. Models do show an upper level trough (some upper level energy) in the Gulf of Mexico edging northward during this period. Models hint at a weak inverted trough axis forming northward from that into Georgia or Alabama. As the high pushes further east and a fairly strong upper level trough pushes into the central U. The high shifting off into the western Atlantic should keep it moving very slowly.
This will be partially a result of deepening low pressure across northeast Colorado through the day in response to the approaching Pacific low pressure now diving though Nevada. However the better chance for convective initiation supporting severe storms appears more likely on Tuesday afternoon, in the extreme eastern counties, as the cold front moves across the area. Cooler conditions area are forecast following the cold front.
323 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 Deep layer cyclonic flow persists over the area this morning as the closed low, now centered over western Upstate New York, only slowly migrates east. A few showers have been noted on radar within a corridor of weak troughing in the Thumb. Forecast soundings maintain ample moisture in the lowest 5kft capable of supporting clouds through most or all of the day. With the thermal trough lingering over the area, highs will likely reach the mid 60s at best. Heights will steadily rise this afternoon through Tuesday as North Pacific energy continues to pour into the evolving longwave trough over the western United States, culminating in a closed low that will lift into Manitoba midweek. In the meantime, the ridge over Lower MI will undergo any appreciable amplification until Tuesday.
An upper level low will continue to swing east along the Oregon/California border area through tonight. This low will then swing east-northeast into northern Wyoming on Monday.
215 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will build into the area. Visibilities are quickly falling behind the lake spoke of moisture pinwheeling around the departing upper low.
An upper level low over Vancouver island will keep showers in the forecast on Tuesday.
This system was associated with 100 m H5 height falls at 00Z, and as this associated jet and height falls move toward the high Plains today, surface pressures will continue to fall resulting in an increasing pressure gradient and breezy to windy conditions by this afternoon.
231 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 An upper level low pressure system will finish slowly moving through the region today, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
330 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will build into the area. Fries Visibilities are quickly falling behind the lake spoke of moisture pinwheeling around the departing upper low.
/issued 251 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): 500 mb high pressure centered west of the Baja Peninsula will maintain a mid-level flow from the northwest to west over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the forecast period.
An upper level short wave tracking SE across the NW Gulf of Mexico, will continue to track farther SE today, however a weak sfc coastal trough will continue to provide low level moisture convergence across the middle TX Coastal Waters. Based on radar trends as well as models progging the low level convergence to be along the coast and slightly inland, have gone with a 20 pop along the coast as well. Did not go any higher than 20 percent due to the moisture being limited and the high pressure aloft being a dominant feature.
Temperatures are expected to climb into the lower 80s with relative humidities dropping to the lower teens. Satellite imagery shows an area of thunderstorms over the northwest corner of the state being driven by the upper level jet associated with the approaching upper trough that will bring the unsettled weather through this week. By Wed night into Thu there is still disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS with respect to an upper level trough moving across the rgn. By Sat and Sun a flat upper level ridge will be over the area with dry wly flow aloft. Thus it should by dry both days with warmer temps as readings rise back into the 70s across nern CO.
359 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Upper level trough is draped across the eastern half of the country extending from just east of the Great Lakes southwestward to the Gulf Coast. This far south the trough begins to soften as a weak ridge following the trough slides east. This in combination with the cooler/drier air mass in place should still be able to keep shower and thunderstorm activity pushed offshore. 500mb heights will be rising today as the trough is shifts east.
The trough is also serving as a focus for shra/tsra over mainly the western Gulf. At 850 mb, weak high pressure was noted over the mid Mississippi valley and a deep low pressure system was located over the intermountain west. At 300 mb, A ridge of high pressure was noted over western Mexico and a deep upper trough extended from the eastern Great lakes southwest into LA.
There is good model agreement that rain chances will increase today as a large area of low pressure moves across the region. The best chances are favored in the western part of the state, so will continue to carry the highest pops in that area.
Winds will remain gusty across parts of Elko County today as low pressure exits the Great Basin. There are pockets of cool air infiltrating central Nevada (Austin is at the freezing mark and Middlegate in Pershing County is showing 27 degrees) but freezing surface temperatures are more consistently back over northwest Humboldt County. Low pressure will move east of the Great Basin today then up into the Dakotas by tomorrow. However tomorrow there will be another low feature approaching, diving down into the exiting, widening trough. This feature could spark some lightning over eastern Nevada, inducing some heavier snow showers on the high terrain of the Jarbidge Wilderness, which could in turn receive 2-3 inches of snow.
NAM soundings are more robust in the low-level moisture signal than GFS soundings but HRRR and SREF also point towards better low-level saturation. Have placed TEMPO group for KSAT/KSSF for the lower ceilings from 11-13Z. Clear skies with warmer temperatures tonight as southerly winds return across the area.