Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 70 85 71 87 / 70 50 60 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 69 83 70 85 / 50 40 70 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 82 68 83 70 86 / 40 40 60 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 67 81 67 84 / 50 40 70 50 60.
Otherwise, highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s looks good. The low moves very little on Thursday, with decent temperature and moisture advection ahead of it. High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s west, with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s east to the lower 60s west.
733 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough into the western Great Lakes. Tonight, expect the rest of the showers to only gradually diminish as the mid level trough amplifies but the moisture and stronger forcing slides to the east. Clearing over the northwest half and favorable radiational cooling overnight will allow temps to drop off into the lower 40s over the inland west half while clouds maintain temps in the lower south and east. 850 mb temps in the 8C to 10C range will support highs from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures appears likely for mid-July with cooler air masses staying well to our north/northwest.
415 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge. The Tri- State area will be situated on the northeast periphery of the ridge -- in [varying degrees of] northwest flow aloft. With the Tri-State area situated on the northeast periphery of an amplifying ridge aloft.
High pressure builds over the Northland for light winds and clear skies which will provide efficient radiational cooling tonight giving a chilly night; so chilly that some rural locations in St.
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing, mainly along and southeast of the KS Turnpike corridor, in vicinity of a cold front oozing slowly south.
1028 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Currently - Deep layered ridging dominates the area with the surface Atlantic ridge extending westward across South and Central Florida. As a result, shower activity across the area is isolated at best despite surface dew points int he mid 70s and temperatures in the lower 80s. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate through the overnight hours. A ridge across South and Central Florida will maintain light southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters through the overnight period.
541 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge. The Tri- State area will be situated on the northeast periphery of the ridge -- in [varying degrees of] northwest flow aloft. With the Tri-State area situated on the northeast periphery of an amplifying ridge aloft.
743 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Aviation - Strong to severe storms precede cold front this evening - Fair Weather interlude followed by return of showers - Strong to severe storms precede cold front this evening We expect the conditions for strong to severe storms to continue through this evening across the southeast forecast area in the warm sector ahead of advancing cold front. The severe threat should diminish after sunset as instability decreases, but some strong storms and a heavy rain threat could persist overnight and into Thursday morning along the cold front. The front should clear the eastern zones by afternoon with a cooler and much drier air mass moving in.
Hot and dry conditions persist as high pressure remains dominant over the region.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Short term model guidance maintains the 500 mb closed low over the RGV area eventually shifting this feature slowly westward. This will maintain the RGV in the more favorable east side of the closed low maintain pretty decent conv chcs through tomorrow night. The latest KBRO radar reflectivity fortunately shows that the stronger conv that formed up along the lower TX coast/NE Mex coast has shifted offshore giving the region a needed break from the moderate to heavy rainfall. Will be leaning towards the wetter side of guidance with the highest pops confined near the lower TX coastline and offshore.
On a big picture, a ridging west and troughing east pattern was setting up across the greater CONUS. The troughing was in part helping to draw deep moisture from the tropics to the southern lower-48.
808 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 A chance of showers and storms will continue this evening through Thursday night along and ahead of a cold front moving southeast through the Ohio Valley. A cold front stretching from the lower Great Lakes back through the middle Mississippi Valley will move slowly southeast overnight. The front pushes through the region late Thursday, so showers decrease late as cooler, drier air arrives behind the front. High temperatures Thursday will reach the low to mid 80s, with lows dipping into the mid to upper 60s Thursday night.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow as upper level ridging moves more into place over the area.
High pressure will gradually build back into the waters from the Atlantic tonight through the rest of the week as Elsa continues to move northeast and away from the Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Advisory winds and seas are expected to subside below headline criteria later this evening, with high pressure holding in place through the upcoming weekend.
611 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Cooler air and cu clouds have dominated the weather across the cwa this afternoon. Otherwise, the ops models and hi-res models all point to two short wave troughs coming around the upper ridge to our west, affecting our region through Thursday night. For tonight, indications are that short wave/waa lift over the cooler air and mid level instability will bring scattered showers and storms across the region later tonight into Thursday. The second stronger short wave trough will drop in from the northwest Thursday afternoon and night. This wave will be more significant as there will be higher surface dewpoints, warmer temperatures, deeper instability and stronger deep layer shear.
A weak upper trough in Oregon pushed a surface "cold" front across southern Idaho this afternoon, with thunderstorms in Twin Falls County which eventually shifted east. Drier and cooler air moved into eastern Oregon and western Idaho on breezy northwest winds. Cooler air tonight will end the string of warm nights that began in late June.
519 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge to the west of the forecast area. MLCAPE has risen to 500-1500J/KG with the highest amounts along the convergence zone over the Black Hills. On Thursday, the upper ridge will be located over the forecast area, bringing warmer than average temperatures and large scale subsidence resulting in strong MLCIN to the area.
618 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Key Points: -Thunderstorms are expected to shift southeast of the area this evening as cold front moves through the area.
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Current scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon, most numerous along a weak cold front across portions of northern and central OK. Ridging will simultaneously build eastward in the mid to upper levels which will help suppress convective development during the day, with only some very slight chances lingering across southern Oklahoma.
122 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough into the western Great Lakes. Tonight, expect the rest of the showers to only gradually diminish as the mid level trough amplifies but the moisture and stronger forcing slides to the east. Clearing over the northwest half and favorable radiational cooling overnight will allow temps to drop off into the lower 40s over the inland west half while clouds maintain temps in the lower south and east. 850 mb temps in the 8C to 10C range will support highs from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures appears likely for mid-July with cooler air masses staying well to our north/northwest.
SHRAs rotating around the low pressure system across South Texas could impact areas south of I-10 and east of I-35 overnight and into Thursday morning.
1146 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge. The Tri- State area will be situated on the northeast periphery of the ridge -- in [varying degrees of] northwest flow aloft. With the Tri-State area situated on the northeast periphery of an amplifying ridge aloft.
This should keep things cooler again along Superior, but some inland locations should see upper 60s to around 70. Drier air, light winds, and minimal clouds should allow good radiational conditions are temperatures fall into the low to mid 40s. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures appears likely for mid-July with cooler air masses staying well to our north/northwest.
As northwest upper flow continues around large southwest ridge, watching weak disturbance coming out of Northern Plains that will likely drive convection to our southwest through tonight.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ Isolated showers and storms from earlier this evening have dissipated, and any additional convection overnight will remain south of the area in the vicinity of a low pressure center along the Texas coast.
1056 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge to the west of the forecast area. MLCAPE has risen to 500-1500J/KG with the highest amounts along the convergence zone over the Black Hills. On Thursday, the upper ridge will be located over the forecast area, bringing warmer than average temperatures and large scale subsidence resulting in strong MLCIN to the area.
A cold front stretching from southwest and central MO into central IL will push into the forecast area this afternoon into the early evening.
658 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
638 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK. EXCEPT LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL DECOUPLED AND HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY UNDER NEARLY FULL SUN TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH A LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED. EVEN BETTER FRONTAL TIMING AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY.
343 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
410 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND TO SERN MT CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE CWA. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER ERN MT WILL ALSO CONTINUE SEWRD. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN MON NIGHT.
555 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
157 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
418 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015 (Today and Tonight) The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for showers and thunderstorms as an upper level low approaches from the west. An upper level low is currently centered across northern Baja California and is forecast to approach far West Texas this evening. PoPs for today were reduced across much of the area, as most of the upper level lift associated with the low will not overspread the area until late this afternoon and overnight.
CONDS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER BY 13/02Z AS TRUE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE REGION. AN INITIAL ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE PSBL WITH WARM FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
Due to the cooler temperatures, snow has been sticking to the roads at Lolo and Lost Trail passes. Snow showers will begin to decrease by this afternoon as a brief ridge of high pressure builds. Another trough of low pressure and associated cold front are expected to pass through the region, causing breezy conditions and widespread precipitation.
LATEST STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WORKING UP THE TEXAS COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MUCH REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STAY RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF. WITH A LACK OF A SRLY MOISTURE FEED INTO THE LOW. KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW. BUT A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SNOW FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCURS WEDS IN THE QUASI-WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDS EVENING. STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COPIOUS CAA BEHIND WILL AMPLIFY THE TROF AND STRENGTHEN THE FRONT ON ARRIVAL.
An upper level trough in western Canada will dig southeast into the northern plains Tonight. The resulting low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tonight will cause a cold front to move across the CWA during the night. South-southwest surface winds will advect warmer air northeast across central and eastern KS. The surface cold front will move southward across the CWA during the late evening and early morning hours of Wednesday. The snow ahead of the next upper level trough digging southeastward across the northern plains will not reach the northern counties of the CWA until after 12Z. Behind this system high pressure builds southward through the plains causing a rather strong pressure gradient as the wave tracks overhead.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST LATE TONIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY THEN CLOSER TOWARD SEASONAL TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ELONGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N 108W EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS.
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO START THIS TAF PACKAGE. LATEST STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WORKING UP THE TEXAS COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 407 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015/ A COLD FRONT, THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, IS SITTING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
607 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH DRIVES AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS CENTRAL AND SE OK MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE BL QUICKLY DRIES OUT.
WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES THAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THE IMPACT OF THE QUICK BURST SEEMS TO NECESSITATE THE HIGHLIGHTING OF THE HAZARD THROUGH AN ADVISORY. ONE COLD DAY IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS STILL REMAINS THE WARMER MODEL FOR FRI/SAT. BUT HAS TRENDED COOLER ACROSS THE N/NE MPX CWA. LOCAL HOPWRF IS MORE IN LINE OF THE EC DEPICTING A COOLER SCENARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY BREEZY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AS THE LOW PASSES. CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
THE AREA WITH THE SNOW PACK WILL HAVE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE THE SNOW FREE AREAS ARE WARMER. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
911 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FROM THE WEST. NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
630 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DON'T EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO INITIATE UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AFTER 06Z AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY AFTER THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO EAST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 20S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. TODAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. MODELS ALL SHOW THAT THE PCPN WITH THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY. PROBABLY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TAKING MOST OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
623 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS) WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONTS WL MOVE INTO SERN CO. PCPN CHANCES WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT THEN BY LATE NIGHT AN UPR RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVR THE STATE AND PCPN CHANCES WL DECREASE ALONG THE CONTDVD. OVR THE SOME PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS THERE WL STILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ON THU AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA. THE UPR RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON SUN AND STAYS OVR THE AREA THRU MON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 20S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. TODAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. MODELS ALL SHOW THAT THE PCPN WITH THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY. PROBABLY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TAKING MOST OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
1002 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR. BUT A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SNOW FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCURS WEDS IN THE QUASI-WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDS EVENING. STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COPIOUS CAA BEHIND WILL AMPLIFY THE TROF AND STRENGTHEN THE FRONT ON ARRIVAL.
905 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE NORTH.
929 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. WE'LL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH THE CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE. WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WARMER AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS ALLOWED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
IT WILL HELP TO DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX EARLY THUR MORNING. COOLER/ DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BY THUR AS THE SFC/UPPER RIDGES BUILD OVER THE AREA. THEREAFTER A SPELL OF MAINLY DRY/QUIET WX GIVEN THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBLE (EVENTUAL) BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THINGS DRY/QUIET IN THE MEANTIME. 41 PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF AS UPPER LOW IN WESTERN MEXICO MOVES EAST SHOULD KEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ELEVATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE WEDNESDAY WINDS DROP OFF AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONTS MOVES INTO THE STATE.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER SW OF THE BIG BEND MOVES TWD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES POINT TO HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE TEMPS CLIMBED TO THE LOWER 60S ON STRENGTH OF GUSTY SW WINDS.
THIS CLOUD DECK HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS THAT RANGED FROM 29 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE TO THE MID 20S AT 300 FEET AGL. A MODERATE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WAS STILL ABLE TO FORM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING/0 CELSIUS AT THE SURFACE TO NEAR 5-6 CELSIUS FROM ABOUT 2000-9000 FEET.
/ISSUED 407 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015/ MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
CURRENT POPS FOR 18-00Z TIME FRAME STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.