Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds continue to stream southeast in cyclonic flow around the large eastern low pressure system. Winds will temporarily increase to 10 to 15 mph this morning after decreasing toward sunrise, but after that, as the ridge axis moves by, winds should be under 10 mph as directions shift from northwest to southwest this evening, and south overnight. Wind chills won't be too much cooler than the actual temperature thankfully, so an extra layer or two of clothes might be pretty affective under that costume. ERVIN Wednesday Cloudy, breezy and a bit warmer than the past few days into the upper 40s on avg.
Poor travel conditions are likely at times in the Sierra and for the higher elevations of northeast California this weekend.
216 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the long wave trough moving onto the Plains. Ahead of the trough light snow was continuing to move east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to warm air advection.
/issued 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017/ Today and Tonight: The Florida peninsula will remain under the influence of high pressure over the northeastern Gulf today. Analysis this morning shows that flow just above the surface has already veered north-northeasterly as the ridge begins to drift eastwards. Low temperatures tonight will be 5-10 degrees warmer due to the onshore flow. Anywhere that stays NE will remain warmer, and sites that become NW may drop colder than forecast. This will veer flow more east-northeast through the rest of the week, with a modest increase in speed late week as a low level trough sets up over the western Atlantic.
WAA though looks to push temperatures above freezing past 17z turning precip to all rain.
We have had a few decent cold fronts and we have begun to dry out regarding fuels for fire weather.
312 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak cold front will dissipate over Virginia and the Carolinas tonight before re-emerging over the Tennessee Valley as a warm front Wednesday.
Southerly winds will help to filter in warmer air into western and central areas this afternoon, with highs generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The southwest will flirt with temps above freezing leading to chances for rain and snow through the night and most of Wednesday morning. Far northern areas will likely have all snow thus the highest snowfall accumulations are expect far north and in the northeast corner of the CWA, where close to two inches of snow forecast.
Moisture advection increases as the trough over the southwest US slides east, and forcing increases ahead of the trough over Wyoming currently moving towards norther CO and Nebraska. Peak of event should be mid morning, with latest trends showing activity rapidly transitioning east as trough axis swings over our CWA and subsidence overspreads our CWA.
324 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Dry conditions will give way to precipitation moving into the region late tonight into Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward.
Also, a warm front over se TX into central LA may shift slightly nwd, providing additional focus for enhanced rainfall and provide trigger for tstms as stg low lvl shear and decent mid lvl lapse rates already in place. Meanwhile, a stg upper lvl ridge building over nrn MEX will create upper difluence region over eastern portions and overall warming trend with highs climbing into the 80s over the wknd.
the higher TSRA chances would reside east of that line.
However, expecting to see the lower levels saturate by the late afternoon and early evening. The primary concern for evening festivities tonight will be with persistent cold temperatures, with values expected in the mid to upper 30s, eventually approaching the freezing mark overnight.
Overnight lows will be slightly warmer (30s) with a bit of downslope winds in the morning.
With a little cooler temperatures and more times as snow, there could be a few locations that would have up to an inch of snow during the day today. The temperatures will be warmer tonight than what they are currently. The mean trof will form there with WSW flow here. Cold frontal passages are slated for Wed night and Sun.
627 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak dry cold front will move through from the north tonight and dissipate Wednesday.
/issued 248 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017/ Cool surface ridging has settled over the region with light northeasterly breezes and 07Z temperatures ranging from the middle 30s to lower 40s. The lower atmosphere may be just cold enough (after wet-bulbing effects) for a little wintry mix (sleet or snow) generally north and west of Lubbock through mid-morning, if any precipitation can occur there in this time period.
Lift/UVV peaks around mid morning as the trough quickly crosses the area. The trough will be moving into eastern Nebraska by later this afternoon, with any snow having ended across our area. This should keep temperatures nearly steady in the lower 30s in those areas, with upper 20s elsewhere. Quasi-zonal flow aloft transitions to southwesterly as an H5 trough digs over the Western U.
/issued 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017/ Precipitation is beginning to develop across far west Texas and southern New Mexico as a southern stream trough and upper jet approach the forecast area. Decent lift associated with the trough and jet above the cooler air will generate scattered showers this morning. In addition the rain could mix with some light sleet and or light snow across the highest of elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as temperatures approach freezing in those areas.
moisture continues to advect inland as the coastal trough inches westward to eventually meet up with the cold front. a bit warmer in the coastal bend into the mid 60s. Warmer but dry Wednesday night.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, not quite as much cooling has occurred over the south as the cold front stalled just south of Moab and north of the San Juan Mountains. Showers will decrease during the afternoon as subsidence sets in in the wake of the transient trough. As would be expected, temperatures will be cooler post-frontal as compared to yesterday with clouds and showers across the south playing a role in limiting warming during the day. which will broaden and flatten the long-wave trough over the center of the country.
Suspect that winter weather advisories will be taken down for the higher elevations of Pikes Peak and the Wet mountains a little later this morning as this last round of snow clears the area. Some mid and high level wave cloudiness will spread across the region later tonight and with lee troffing and increasing winds across the high country and east facing slopes, this should keep min temps on the warm side. Doesn't appear to be enough of a mountain top inversion to help bring strong winds down far enough into the lower elevations to warrant any high wind highlights but do expect some gusts into the 60-65 mph range across the higher elevations and east slopes of the Sawatch range with gusts to around 50 mph for the Rampart range of Teller county towards morning.
157 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will settle over the area through tonight as an approaching cold front stalls to the northwest. Readings should warm to highs in the lower to mid 70s, which would actually be a couple of degrees above normal.
303 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High amplitude flow across the continental US with broad trough across the central US and high pressure centered off Canadian Pacific coast.
Also adjusted aftn high temps a few degrees cooler as ovc skies and ne winds around 10 mph will inhibit heating. Behind the front, temperatures are slightly cooler with north winds around 5 knots. Isentropic lifting above the front to allow for increased rain chances today, first across east Texas followed by widespread rainfall across the entire region this afternoon and tonight with the highest rain chances along an axis from deep east Texas through extreme northwest Louisiana into south-central Arkansas. High temperatures today are forecast to climb into the lower 60s across much of the region with possibly the lower 70s south of the frontal boundary across north-central Louisiana. Rain chances to persist through the remainder of the workweek as upper-level flow remains zonal at the base of a longwave upper- trough.
249 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Quiet weather through Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region from the west.
A much cooler, wet and unsettled weather pattern will develop Wednesday night and will continue through the weekend bringing heavy snow to the mountains and the northern valleys Wednesday night onward. Morning update: The region remains in a northwesterly flow, with a ridge off the coast and trough over the central United States.
Lows around Pierre and Mobridge will be closer to freezing and above freezing to the west. At the same time, temperatures aloft are expected to remain below freezing. Therefore, precipitation type will be limited to rain or snow depending upon surface temperatures - freezing rain is not expected. Little or no snowfall is expected west of the Missouri River as lows will be at or above freezing all night.
551 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure builds from the south today before moving offshore on Wednesday.
/issued 351 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Expect much cooler temperatures and a chance of rain today. Also, much cooler due to the widespread cloud cover and the rainfall.
Westerly and northwesterly winds will accompany the cold front. Best model agreement shows that the cold front will not be directly north-to-south progressive which will allow rain to remain the predominant precip type south and west of Fort Peck Lake. Wednesday night, model consensus keeps NE Montana dry and cold under a very large broad upper-level trough stretched over the entire continent.
An upper level trof was producing scattered light snow showers or flurries across much of the region this morning. Lake effect snow showers will gradually taper off in north central WI this morning as low-level winds back to the west and a weak ridge of high pressure arrives.
The main question becomes snow ratio given warmer ground temperatures.
The cold front which went through the forecast area yesterday remains just south of the forecast area. Somewhat cooler air will remain over the region today with highs ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s. By tonight, the front will start to lift north as a warm front. Temperatures should not be as cold tonight with lows Wednesday in the lower 40s to lower 50s. The warm front will move into the forecast area on Wednesday with more showers expected to move across the region. The warm front will be well north of the forecast area by Wednesday night with more showers possible.
Today Through Wednesday Night Active northern stream continues with an upper trough translating across the Upper Midwest and largely zonal flow across the southern CONUS. Broad isentropic lift north of the front, compounded by the passing upper energy, will yield a broad area of precipitation with the highest PoPs across south and southeastern AR. South of the warm front, some destabilization is expected with precipitation becoming more convective in nature.
414 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Tonight-Wednesday night: A large mid-upper level area of high pressure is located to the southeast of South FL, while the area remains under the influence of low-level ridging to our north. The ridge is forecast to slide eastward.
153 PM PDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Cool weather will continue this week under weak low pressure aloft.
The downsloping winds will add a bit to the high temperatures the next two days which should run a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal.
The nearly stationary front to our south will move back north as a warm front during the period, as some weak short wave energy moves across as it shears out. High pressure over the SE coast will slowly move to the east through the work week.
Unfortunately, today will not be one of the most pleasant Halloweens of all time as temperatures are expected to stay put in the lower 40s with mostly cloudy skies which will mean that your kids will have to bundle up! There is also, a chance we may have some light showers south of Interstate 70 this evening. Highs on Wednesday will rise into the lower to middle 50s even with mostly cloudy skies thanks to a return to southerly flow.
The cold front that passed through the forecast area last night is sitting over middle Alabama. This will work its way back north as a warm front later tonight. High temperatures will be a bit chilly compared to yesterday in the lower to middle 50s.
Issued by National Weather Service CHICAGO IL 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Quiet and dry conditions can be expected tonight as a high pressure ridge transits the region and then shifts east. On Wednesday, in advance of low pressure over the Plains, warm advection will ramp up aloft to eject the unseasonably chilly air mass over the region. Boundary layer temperatures are expected to warm well above freezing into the lower to mid 40s, so not currently anticipating any p-type issues.
Temperatures will be two or three degrees cooler than average tonight, as cooler air behind the storm system sticks around.
Effectively this should end the current snowfall and as the mid level trough completely clears the area and dries the mid levels out, any lingering light snow should exit the area as well. Temps this afternoon have hovered around the freezing mark largely along and north of I-70 as expansive cloud cover has remained in place with the aid of web-bulb cooling. Meanwhile warmer temps have been reached in east central KS topping out in the upper 30s. The highest amount on record at Topeka Billard has been 4. Not concerned at this time for any freezing DZ in the morning as most guidance is in agreement that temps will be above freezing and also.
There is also some uncertainty in whether Converse County will receive the higher wind gusts. Low level flow peaks during the morning hours in this area and then veers more to the NW as a cold front approaches during the afternoon.
Lows will drop into the low 30s in many locations, with highs on Wednesday recovering into the mid to upper 40s.
A cold front is slowly tracking southward this morning and is just now making it into the northwestern edge of Central Alabama.
222 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak back-door cold front that will settle into North Carolina tonight. The front will quickly retreat north of our region Wednesday, with following warm high pressure extending across the eastern states through the end of the week. Meanwhile, weak high pressure across the area will briefly be reinforced by a secondary transitory northern stream parent high center that will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic states tonight through early Wednesday. Lows generally in the low to middle 40s, with some upper 30s possible in typically cooler spots.
312 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Quiet and dry conditions can be expected tonight as a high pressure ridge transits the region and then shifts east. On Wednesday, in advance of low pressure over the Plains, warm advection will ramp up aloft to eject the unseasonably chilly air mass over the region. Boundary layer temperatures are expected to warm well above freezing into the lower to mid 40s, so not currently anticipating any p-type issues.
1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Weak surface ridging propagating through the region today, leading to very little impacts.
Some light fog may be possible across the low lying areas of the Interstate 10 corridor and near Brady tonight as winds will be light. Otherwise, tomorrow will be much warmer than today with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Also, a warm front over se TX into central LA may shift slightly nwd, providing additional focus for enhanced rainfall and provide trigger for tstms as stg low lvl shear and decent mid lvl lapse rates already in place. Meanwhile, a stg upper lvl ridge building over nrn MEX will create upper level difluence over eastern portions with an overall warming trend as highs climb into the 80s over the wknd.
KBYX detects no precipitation echos to speak of as expansive high pressure stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the western Atlantic off the Carolina coastline. Across the continental US, the upper level pattern shows a weak trough axis extending through Colorado. In the upper levels, the synoptic pattern will become quasi-zonal as the trough across the heart of the country shifts eastward and fills through Wednesday. At the surface, northeast to east winds will remain in place as a high pressure lingers across North Florida.
Light to moderate showers are ongoing as expected this afternoon as a weak cold front has slid south of the region. Do not expect much thunderstorms through the late afternoon and overnight given the lower upright instability and poor lapse rates farther north and west over a majority of the region.
Moisture will increase during the period, but clouds should be mainly of the high/mid variety.
310 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Quiet and dry conditions can be expected tonight as a high pressure ridge transits the region and then shifts east. On Wednesday, in advance of low pressure over the Plains, warm advection will ramp up aloft to eject the unseasonably chilly air mass over the region. Boundary layer temperatures are expected to warm well above freezing into the lower to mid 40s, so not currently anticipating any p-type issues.
1257 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the long wave trough moving onto the Plains. Ahead of the trough light snow was continuing to move east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to warm air advection.
121 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure through late tonight. Moisture will quickly increase from the southwest, aided by developing llj, as upper trough deepens across central U. With warm moist air aloft, and drier cooler air near the surface, precipitation could start out as a wintry mix across parts of southeast Ohio. Temps will continue to warm nicely tomorrow across the region as low pressure across the plains lifts northeast, with all areas changing over to rain shortly after 12Z. Southwesterly flow and warm front will bring plenty of moisture to the region on Wednesday.
1225 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure southeast of the forecast area, with a warm front extending south from low pressure over southwest Canada and into central MT. Upper level analysis continues to show fast northwest flow across the region between long wave trough over the eastern US and ridging off the west coast. Some milder air will build into the area as warm front tracks east, and west to southwest winds develop. A cold front will arrive early Wednesday and move southeast across the CWA during the day. Snowfall will mostly be limited to the higher elevations of northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far northwest SD. The higher elevations of the northern Black Hills and WY Black Hills will likely see an inch or two of snowfall later tonight into Wednesday morning.
A stronger system will move into the region will bring increasing wind, cooler temperatures and chances of valley rain and mountain snow over the weekend.
Still expect that upper level disturbance to swing toward our area tonight and Wednesday morning, lifting the old cold front, down over the Gulf states, back to the north.
Upper level analysis places places trough cutting through the plains, with northwest flow to the west. Total accumulations will be quite light, with the highest amounts of around two inches near the Turtle Mountains.
Heading into Wednesday and Wednesday night warm air advection will be enough for temps to rise into the lower 60s for Wednesday but only fall into the 50s for low Wednesday night. While precip chances will be good, the forecast challenge will be late Wednesday and into Wednesday night in the far east as high pressure and dry air hanging on over the central Appalachians may be enough to keep rain out of the area along the far eastern CWA along VA until late Wednesday night.
Moist isentropic lift will increase this evening, in advance of an upper low over the southern plains. While this air gradually saturates late evening and overnight, a surface warm front will lift to near the I-40 corridor by sunrise.
South of highway 50, atmosphere in the low layers remains fairly dry, so only expecting to see a few sprinkles. Ketcham Water Vapor imagery shows a mid and upper level low pressure system moving through AZ and NM this morning which is creating some mid level WAA over Northeast NM and Eastern Colorado. Most of the short range models bring the weak high pressure across Northeast KS and into Central Missouri. This progged orientation of the high pressure to the mid level low in NM promotes an easterly component to the surface winds creating a strong over running signature over much of Kansas today. This set up will also make day time highs for today tricky as a web bulb affect could make afternoon highs a few degrees cooler than forecast, especially along the I-70 corridor.
408 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure builds from the south today before moving offshore on Wednesday.
Breezy west winds then spread across the lower elevations Wed, leading to much warmer temps areawide by afternoon.
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Just some passing high clouds across the forecast area this afternoon as high pressure remains over South GA and stalled dry front resides just north of the area.
The best warming will be over south central SD with readings into the lower to mid 40s. By tonight the trough continues its eastward movement, and southerly winds will pick up during the night as the gradient tightens further.
247 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A ridge of dry and cool high pressure will gradually weaken over the eastern states through mid-week. Cooler weather is expected over the weekend, as a back door cold front moves through the area from the northeast. Dry high pressure currently sits over the lower Mississippi Valley. Aloft, a broad trough will swing eastward through the period. The high will shift to the East Coast in response. A cold front is associated with the trough but is progged not to make progress east of the southern Appalachians.
254 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 18Z surface data has high pressure across northwest Missouri with a developing storm system in southeast Colorado. Right now it looks like the atmosphere eventually saturates around mid-afternoon with light rain developing in the highway 20 corridor west of Dubuque. The better chances for seeing any rain are in the highway 20 corridor.
First, a cold front will be pushing into the Northern Rockies from the east.
246 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will generally clear skies to the south of Lake Ontario tonight, with just a few showers lingering over north central New York this evening.
A cold front stalled over the area this morning, but the airmass has mixed out this afternoon and do not see much airmass difference across Central Alabama at this time.
/Today through Tonight/ Area currently sandwiched between a large area of low pressure situated near Hudson Bay, and a large area of high pressure stretching along the Plains states. As the sfc pres gradient relaxes as the area of high pressure builds ESE this morning, winds will subside further. High clouds will then increase across the state this afternoon with mostly cloudy conditions expected into tonight in advance of an upper trough dropping through the region tonight into Wednesday. Two impulses of energy embedded within the longwave trough each wave moving through to either the north or south of the state. Therefore expect min temperatures tonight to be reached into the evening/midnight timeframe with temps steadying out or slowly warming toward sunrise as the warmer air moves in and winds pick up ahead of the approaching wave.