Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 341 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Upper level low is situated over the Great Basin this afternoon with a nearly zonal pattern flow regime across West Texas. The low is expected to slowly move southeast tomorrow settling over the San Juan Mountains of Colorado by evening time as flow backs southwesterly here in our part of the state.
The protective ridge continues to shift very slowly east toward the Atlantic Coast allowing a gradual increase in moisture across the Southern Appalachians.
In the meantime, prefrontal trof to continue tracking east into Illinois this evening.
1009 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Cloudy skies w/ southerly winds through the ovenight hours around the backside of the ridge. this should hold morning lows in the low to mid 70s. Have seen rather breezy southerlies and that will remain the case over the next few days as the surface pressure gradient remains tight between strong high pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS and low pressure redeveloping along a stalled boundary over the south plains.
Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s. The late evening local sounding indicates a deeper easterly flow and slightly more moisture concentrated in the lowest layers when compared to 24 hours ago.
the next upper low deepens into the Central Plains through the short term. The upper ridge stays centered near the Atlantic Coast.
A weak cold front will be focused to our north on Thursday. Upper level ridging tries to build back into our area, and combined with weak forcing, not expecting coverage of convection to be that great.
759 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the southeastern U. A backdoor cold front will settle south through VA Fri night and into NC on Sat.
This boundary is associated with a departing upper trof over IA/NE.
1037 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure remains nearly stationary off the Eastern seaboard through Thursday.
634 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 A strong, negatively-tilted upper-level trough will continue to mature and lift northeast into southern Iowa through the remainder of the afternoon. Convection has developed over north central to northeastern Kansas underneath the upper low, with new convection initiating just ahead of the circulation, where rapid clearing through the late morning has destabilized the environment underneath a highly sheared environment. Given the highly sheared environment, deep convection may be difficult to establish, thus at least partially mitigating the hail threat, though large hail remains possible within any rotating thunderstorms. Southwest flow will resume overnight until a warm front lifts north across central Missouri Thursday morning.
Low temps similar to last night if not 1-3 deg warmer.
Current analysis has surface/mid-level low pressure center over eastern Nebraska. Radar has some ongoing showers/thunderstorms ahead of the low moving across portions of southwest into central WI. Severe threat looks on track for the area this afternoon into this evening as the low lifts out of Nebraska into southeast MN. The highest tornado threat looks to be from northeast IA into southwest in central WI. The highest severe threat time still looks to be in the 3 to 8 pm time frame. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be seen Thursday under clouds and cold cyclonic flow aloft. Decreasing cloudiness is expected Thursday night mainly north of I- 90 as high pressure noses in from Canada.
903 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 A very quiet night across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region with high pressure at the surface still in control. To to the west, a weak cold front along the Mississippi River has also triggered some showers and storms. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 87 68 88 / 0 30 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 86 68 86 / 0 20 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 66 87 67 86 / 0 30 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 85 63 81 / 0 20 30 50.
635 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Mositure chnnal satellite loop shows the upper low rotating northeast across KS into the northwest tip of MO by this afternoon. Instability beneath upper low with surface convergence is strongest over northern MO rotating into IA. With the movement of the upper closed low to the northeast, dragging the surface front to approach IL overnight, will be continued chance of mainly elevated convection. As for Thursday, the upper low moves off to north and all but the south parts of warning area is dry.
For Thursday, warm mid level temperature will continue to suppress convection for much of the day despite the eroding ridge; however, progs of increased lift along a southward sagging prefrontal trough still look sufficient to pop some thunderstorms in the warm, moist airmass over the region. Limitations look to be imposed by the northward track of the low which will result in a poorly supportive mid level forcing for ascent field. Fading instability and mid level support is expected to result in a rapid decrease in convection this evening despite passage of the actual cold front, which the deterministic models insist on sending south of the I 68 corridor.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the area the next 24 hours, ahead of a large upper level trough over the southern Rockies. 24 (Thursday night through next Wednesday) By Thursday night an upper low will be moving south over northern New Mexico resulting in a southwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
/issued 149 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): High pressure at the surface and at the 500 mb level will continue to be the dominant weather features over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the short term forecast period.
A low pressure system over Utah will bring cool and breezy to windy conditions to the area through Thursday along with some showers over Lincoln and Mohave Counties.
Tight pressure gradient ahead of low pressure moving through western Iowa will continue to generate strong gusty winds for 1-2 more hours before insolation weakens. Not much has changed with the setup, with plenty of moisture, instability, and wind flow with strong low pressure approaching from the southwest. Storms are expected to wind down by midnight, with a few showers lingering overnight in the northwest toward the low. A round of light showers is possible tomorrow, from mid morning into the afternoon as a cold front drops through the area.
The departing storm system will push a weak cold front into the area but it looks likely to stall over southeast KS by early Thursday morning. Southerly return flow will intensify quickly on Thursday in advance of the next strong short wave trough. So, while the majority of the day will be overcast and cooler, the warm front will approach I-70 by 00Z and will set the stage for severe storms.
The upper level low will then hardly move at all Thursday night as it becomes stationary over central Colorado.
958 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 The evening mosaic radar imagery indicates that the isolated -SHRA have diminished this evening, having shifted N of the area into Wrn and Cntrl AR along the tail end of the upper trough over the MS Valley, extending from the closed low over Srn MN/Nrn IA. The water vapor imagery also depicts a considerable amount of dry air aloft which has entrained ENE across much of the region in wake of the departed upper trough. but the short term progs continue to suggest that H850 theta-e ridging will persist overnight over E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK where the extensive cu field remains attm, possibly expanding a bit SE late. thus not expecting much more of a temp fall overnight especially as the low stratus develops/spreads N across the region after 06Z.
Moisture was wrapping around a low pressure system to our east and into our eastern county warning area and this will continue overnight.
700 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Aloft: A longwave trof was over the Wrn USA. Substantial heating could occur there even though the warm front remain to the S. Although the wind direction is more west out of KGRI as of recent observations, wind direction should soon become more north as a low pressure system continues to pull away to the east.
The high clouds will eventually diminish before sunrise. Winds will stay up and keep us mixed, but will continue to advect dry and cooler air in from Canada. Potent upper low creating severe weather across the central plains will continue to lift to the northeast across Iowa and into Wisconsin. Colder and drier airmass from Canadian high pressure continues work into the northern plains.
Upper low pressure system, now moving east of the Great Basin per wv imagery, will move east/northeast across CO/KS on Thursday with much of the synoptic scale lift focusing storms northwest of our area.
900 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 915 MHZ wind profilers at KSC showing E/ESE winds to 20-25 knots in the 1-3 Kft layer with model progs indicating only a slight relaxation of the low level winds by sunrise. As high pressure elongates offshore a tongue of drier air will move westward from the Atlantic overnight in the in the H8-H5 layer toward east central FL.
For tonight, tranquil weather is expected as a cold front continues to sink southward across the greater region. We will see cooler lows as a drier airmass advects in the wake of the front. The cold front mentioned in the short term period will return northward as a warm front. How far this warm front makes it north is the main question. Have much higher confidence of more significant severe weather across the southeastern near the dryline to the SSW and the bisecting warm front. Putting this all together, the SE zones will have the highest chance of severe if the warm sector placement from the ARW and EC is correct. Low level stratus is then expected to develop along and behind a cold front as it begins to push southeast across western Kansas later tonight.
Tonight and Thursday: Latest satellite imagery showed southwest flow across the region in the wake of low pressure to the west in the plains and high pressure over the southeast US.
A significant warming trend will take place through late week and into the weekend as high pressure builds off the west coast. An upper level low over the Great Basin continues moving eastward while an upper level ridge is building over the Eastern Pacific. Dry and warmer weather to continue. A noticeable change is anticipated for much of California as high pressure builds over the state. The large area of high pressure currently sitting just west of 130W is forecast to move eastward over the next two to three days. As a result, 500 mb heights will increase and 850 mb temps will warmer with a decent warming trend at the surface.
High pressure will build stronger over the region each of the next several days.
958 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the area late tonight through Thursday as moisture increases ahead of a cold front.
/issued 958 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ The evening mosaic radar imagery indicates that the isolated -SHRA have diminished this evening, having shifted N of the area into Wrn and Cntrl AR along the tail end of the upper trough over the MS Valley, extending from the closed low over Srn MN/Nrn IA. The water vapor imagery also depicts a considerable amount of dry air aloft which has entrained ENE across much of the region in wake of the departed upper trough. but the short term progs continue to suggest that H850 theta-e ridging will persist overnight over E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK where the extensive cu field remains attm, possibly expanding a bit SE late. thus not expecting much more of a temp fall overnight especially as the low stratus develops/spreads N across the region after 06Z.
Have seen rather breezy southerlies and that will remain the case over the next few days as the surface pressure gradient remains tight between strong high pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS and low pressure redeveloping along a stalled boundary over the south plains.
Forecast models continue to lift this low up across southern and eastern Minnesota later today. Hail and tornadoes are more favored early on, with damaging wind expected as the low level shear increases later this evening. By tomorrow evening, a large area of high pressure will be centered across south central Canada, with dry northeasterly flow at the surface making its way into Minnesota and cool 850H temps falling to 0 to +2 C. Meanwhile, a closed upper low will be over the four corners region and will be our next system of interest.
815 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Low pressure over eastern Nebraska will move northeast through the central Great Lakes on Thursday. A trailing cold front will drop southeast across the region Thursday evening.
Aloft: A longwave trof was over the Wrn USA. Substantial heating could occur there even though the warm front remain to the S. Although the wind direction is more west out of KGRI as of recent observations, wind direction should soon become more north as a low pressure system continues to pull away to the east.
An area of high pressure will be over south-central Canada Thursday evening.
A weak pre-frontal trough may generate a few isolated sprinkles or showers tonight. Mainly dry otherwise with a low chance for isolated thunderstorms along the primary cold front late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
1232 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure remains nearly stationary off the Eastern seaboard through Thursday.
Winds will stay up overnight, so will have to watch the northwest for how much clearing out of the higher clouds occurs. Potent upper low creating severe weather across the central plains will continue to lift to the northeast across Iowa and into Wisconsin. Colder and drier airmass from Canadian high pressure continues work into the northern plains.
Center of a large upper low will move from southeast Idaho this evening to southern Utah on Thursday. Showers will work around the periphery of the low, primarily over the higher terrain of SW Idaho this evening. Coverage will decrease through Thursday as the low pulls further away. Large upper low moving slowly southeast from southeast ID into UT.
1030 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the southeastern U. A backdoor cold front will settle south through VA Fri night and into NC on Sat. Min temps will generally be in the mid 60s with lower 60s in the normally cooler locations.
632 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 The first of two upper level lows is currently tracking northeast across the region. Rain is covering much of the Sandhills and north central NEB this afternoon in deformation area on immediate west side of the upper low which is centered in eastern Nebraska. As the low tracks northeast away from the area this evening, drier air in the mid levels will end the precipitation early. Otherwise, the next upper low will be centered across northern Utah by early Thursday morning and will move slowly to near the the CO/UT border by late afternoon. This will keep the surface flow from the northeast, which will advect cooler air in from the northern plains.
928 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Moisture channel imagery now shows upper low has rotated into north central IL with trailing tail of convection extending southward into west central IL. Mositure chnnal satellite loop shows the upper low rotating northeast across KS into the northwest tip of MO by this afternoon. Instability beneath upper low with surface convergence is strongest over northern MO rotating into IA. With the movement of the upper closed low to the northeast, dragging the surface front to approach IL overnight, will be continued chance of mainly elevated convection. As for Thursday, the upper low moves off to north and all but the south parts of warning area is dry.
Potent upper low creating severe weather across the central plains will continue to lift to the northeast across Iowa and into Wisconsin. Colder and drier airmass from Canadian high pressure continues work into the northern plains.
714 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Low pressure over eastern Nebraska will move northeast through the central Great Lakes on Thursday. A trailing cold front will drop southeast across the region Thursday evening.
Most of the rain will be done by 16Z - but storm totals are still expected to be about 1-2inches everywhere with the highest totals in the WC zones.
12z models are in good agreement that this low will move northeast this afternoon and evening. As this occurs, a Canadian cold front will move southeast across the region. However, it is also showing dew points in the lower 60s and this seems unrealistic considering the soundings are very dry. On Monday, a longwave trough will advance eastward toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley from the Northern and Central Plains.
326 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Potent upper level trough continues to dig south across UT/NV with main vorticity lobe from southwest MT to south central ID.
Winds have also been gusting quite a bit this afternoon, with the highest gusts so far around 35 mph. Due to the lower forecast rainfall amounts, have decided to cancel the Flash Flood Watch that was in effect for northeast Alabama. The TN Valley will become sandwiched between upper ridging off of the Atlantic coast and an amplified trough pushing east of the Rockies early Monday morning. Strong southwest flow will continue the influx of moisture across much of the region through the day, with dewpoint remaining in the lower 70s. Forecast models are in fair agreement that a surface boundary will lift northward during the afternoon, with several disturbances rotating around the ridge to enhance lift across the area.
Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are expected across South Central Texas on Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
252 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Fall weather will be in full swing as a series of cold fronts provide periods of gusty winds and cool downs this week.
The stalled frontal boundary will move back to the north tomorrow as a warm front.
357 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 After a foggy start at many locations this morning, west to southwest winds along with weak ridging aloft has resulted in unseasonably warm temperatures across the area. An approaching weak mid/upper trof over Central TX/Northern Mexico this afternoon is progged to continue NEWD and translate through the Sabine River Valley toward the Mid MS River Valley tomorrow, which along with diurnal instability and a lingering moisture pool over the NW Gulf into LA will help initiate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon east of the Sabine River. A brief shot of relatively drier/cooler air will filter in behind the front on WED, with moderating temperatures expected for late week and into the weekend as mid/upper level ridging retrogrades WWD and amplifies over the area.
Clouds decrease overnight and set up a chilly night as readings should fall below freezing for most of the area. Mid level heights build and the flow backs over the next couple of days for a warmer and drier trend.
A stratus and patchy fog were noted across portions of central and northeast LA and southwest AR this morning, and it would not be surprising if a few sprinkles fall from the low cloud deck. In wake of the tropical system, a cold front was moving slowly across Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana and into East Texas. Drier air associated with the frontal boundary was spreading across the Northwest sections of the area with dew points in the lower to middle sixties as well as drier air in the middle and upper levels associated with the trough of low pressure swinging across the area. Will see continued near to slightly above normal daytime temperatures today and and tomorrow, but with cooler overnight readings due to the lower dew points, drier air and clearing skies for most locations.
306 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 The main weather impact this week continues to be the cold front still on track for Monday morning. Also, a sharp trough will move across the Texas Panhandle on Monday evening.
Wind gusts have diminished quite a bit across our forecast area over the past few hours so we have cancelled the High Wind Advisory for our western zones.
Skies will be mostly sunny Monday morning with clouds increasing some later in the day as an upper level trough starts to spread into the Plains.
A strong upper trough over central Idaho early this afternoon will continue to make its way southeast into Colorado tonight and Monday. The mid level trough axis will pass across CO tonight, with strong qg ascent passing across western and southern sections of the state late tonight and Monday morning. A cold front will push through the cwa early this evening with a fairly deep northeast/northerly flow to around 600 mb. Interactive soundings show the lower levels of the atmosphere saturating in the 03-06z period this evening. The models show the highest snowfall expected to occur in the mountains and foothills of Larimer and Boulder Counties.
The strongest cold front of the season will move through the area tonight shifting winds to a northerly direction. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are anticipated to range from the low 40s across west central Kansas to low 60s across south central Kansas. The cold front mentioned in the short term will be well south of the area by tomorrow night with continued northerly winds.
A subtle trough will swing through Monday evening, with considerable clouds and a few showers across southern MN into western Wisconsin.
This will accelerate the cold front to the south and help to give us a rainy, post-frontal day, especially in the afternoon.
117 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Surface ridging and a much drier airmass continue to build into Michigan late this morning in the wake of strong low pressure that pushed thru our area yesterday. save for some lingering low clouds within the higher elevations of Northern Lower Michigan. Initial cold front is pushing across Huron, taking widespread precip with it. Secondary cold front will exit ne lower MI by 12Z. The Nam is of course sometimes (often?) overly moist in the low levels, and that is certainly the case with the ongoing event.
239 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 The latest water vapor images and RAP analysis had a positively tilted upper trough over the northwestern CONUS with at least a 110 kt jet from KSLC to KINL. Banded rain/snow extended from southwestern WY into north-central SD, with some snow accumulating over the highest Black Hills. The upper low will move to our south on Monday with drier air filtering into the area, and precip coming to an end over southern SD during the morning.
316 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 An upper level trough currently over Idaho, will continue pushing southeast tonight. The airmass associated with the high pressure is certainly cold with 925 mb temps in the single digits, or around the 25th percentile. Weak CAA should produce highs only in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
A cold front will push south through the area later Monday morning through Monday afternoon. A cold front will slowly make its way southeast through WI overnight through Monday morning. This is out ahead of an upper trough crossing the northern Plains and central Rocky Mountains. The cooler air and gusty north winds are expected to accelerate down Lake Michigan a little faster than inland, so northeast winds will keep lakeshore areas cooler during the afternoon. Max temperatures will be limited to the mid 60s toward central WI and the lower 70s in southeast WI.
217 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Cooler and windy today into tonight with increased fire weather danger. The winds will help to keep overnight lows warmer tonight for a number of valley and foothill locations. A dry trough will be deepening from the Pacific Northwest and will result in reversing the flow in the valley by evening.