Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper air analysis shows broad upper ridging across the western CONUS today. With that ridging still in place, expect another hot day Tuesday, with highs reaching over 100 for most of our plains counties. As we progress towards mid-week, ridge slides eastward and upper trough develops over the west coast. By Wednesday, an upper low and associated cold front move towards the area. Timing of the cold front make highs for Wednesday a bit tricky, as the GFS and ECMWF time fropa a bit slower than the NAM and Canadian models. Following frontal passage, winds will shift out of the north and cooler temps do move in.
The latest water vapor imagery still depicts upper troughing extending from the Mid MS Valley SW into KS/Nrn and Wrn OK this evening, with the short term progs still in reasonable agreement with AC cigs and the potential for isolated convection possibly redeveloping overnight ahead of the trough, mainly over portions of SE OK/E TX/Wrn LA/adjacent sections of SW AR.
The main forecast concern will be the lingering coastal flooding issues, with water levels expected to reach 1 to 3 feet above MSL along the coasts of Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties with the high tide cycle just after sunrise this morning. A plume of tropical moisture trailing behind Fred will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area today with the highest chances over the interior in the late afternoon with the sea breeze collision. Through the rest of the the week, high pressure continues to build across the region and will lift slightly north of the area, with easterly to southeasterly winds persisting.
Aloft, a ridge of high pressure was located over the eastern seaboard, with a weak trof extending from the Great Lakes region thru Arkansas.
Otherwise, a gradual eastward shift of the instability axis in concert with the weak upper trof should focus modest convective chances mainly along/east of the Kansas turnpike today. A secondary weak upper trof is progged to move northeastward over the Ozarks and graze far southeast Kansas on Wednesday.
Temperatures should be slightly warmer than Tuesday, topping out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.
By Wednesday, troughing begins to work into the Intermountain West and will help induce a better push of Theta-E advection into our area.
Amplification will occur the next few days as a seasonably strong trough deepens into the Intermountain West and downstream ridging consolidates/ sharpens over the upper Mississippi Valley. The bulk of the energy in the trough will lift out toward James Bay late in the week and during the weekend, leaving a seasonably strong band of fairly low amplitude westerlies across the area by the end of the period. Temperatures will warm to 8-12F degrees above normal by the end of the work week, then drop back closer to normal after the passage of the upper trough. But given the apparent tendency of the best upper support with the trough to lift out west of the area, the best estimate is for AOB normal amounts.
A building ridge aloft should favor an decreasing trend in rain chances by late week, joined by a warming trend. Severe convective gusts are unlikely but gusts over 30 KT are possible due to fairly brisk winds in the lowest 3 KFT expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially western areas. Some residual deep moisture on Wednesday warrants higher pops even under strong ridging aloft probably somewhat similar to today's convection mostly of the shallow variety.
337 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Another hot day is in store across the area as H5 ridging continues to influence afternoon high temperatures. This will be out ahead of a rather potent H5 trough that will bring precipitation chances to the area later in the week.
1227 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 High pressure will build south of the Gulf of Maine overnight through Tuesday night.
1213 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The large scale pattern continues to consist of a broad positive tilt trough over western Canada and ridging over most of the CONUS. Very slight warming aloft tomorrow will lead to high temps perhaps 1-2 F warmer than today, but overall tomorrow will be very similar to today with highs generally in the mid 80s, cooler by Lake Michigan and warmer over the Keweenaw and in the downslope areas of Marquette County. The highlight of this work week will be the continued warmth period Upper Michigan will be in, with highs each day reaching well into the 80s everywhere, with some 90s appearing for the latter half of the week.
308 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue over the next few days as a weak upper level ridge axis remains nearly unchanged through the week.
A surface closed low tracking across The Great PLains and eventually SE AR will help increase rain chances on Wednesday.
But even in the bigger picture, the axis of the broad mid-level trough extends southeast from eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and west Texas this morning and will slowly shift southeast with time, which will support shower/thunderstorm development again today and tonight with the highest chances across the south and eastern portions of the area.
420 AM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered. A strong cold front continues to move southward through the region.
The main forecast concern will be the lingering minor coastal flooding issues around the high tide cycle just after sunrise this morning. A plume of tropical moisture trailing behind Fred will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area today with the highest chances over the interior in the late afternoon with the sea breeze collision. Through the rest of the the week, high pressure continues to build across the region and will lift slightly north of the area, with easterly to southeasterly winds persisting.
A trough will depart the region later today and an upper ridge will build into the area for a return to dry and warmer conditions by midweek. Another trough is expected to cool temperatures late in the week with a chance for a few showers.
looking for scattered showers across the middle and upper Keys this afternoon while the lower Keys will take a bit longer.
The combination of the upper level trough and sufficient instability will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing this morning and into the afternoon.
This morning the area was still under the influence of high pressure as mainly clear skies were reported. Temperatures were slightly warmer this AM with temps in the low 60s to upper 50s. This high pressure will slowly move east today, but will continue to drive the short term weather. As the high pressure shifts east, the flow will eventually become SW through time helping to advect in better llvl moisture. Temps tonight will be warmer than this morning as more moist air arrives.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 69 89 72 85 / 90 40 40 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 70 89 72 86 / 100 80 40 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 77 69 88 70 84 / 90 70 40 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 69 85 68 84 / 100 90 70 30 60 NC.
The dry period will likely be brief as rain returns early Wednesday morning with the low continuing its trek northeast ahead of the broad troughing over the central U. Ensembles and individual operational models differences indicate some continued uncertainty in the exact track of the low, and the resulting heavy rain potential. A few thunderstorms are also possible, though model progged instability is lacking, though a brief period of favorable shear is possible depending on the track of the low.
Slightly warmer conditions will be in place for Wednesday with high temperatures generally in the 80s.
Still appears KMLC/KFSM will likely see the highest chance for storms into the afternoon hours, but all TAF sites will again have the potential for brief IFR conditions as additional storms develop with diurnal heating. /Issued 253 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021/ Scattered showers and storms will possible across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today as an upper level trough persists across the area. While the bulk of the showers and storms will occur this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this morning with isentropic lift producing activity across southeast Oklahoma and the upper level trough possibly kicking off some convection across northeast Oklahoma. The chances of showers and thunderstorms remains for Wednesday even as the upper level trough weakens.
951 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 (Issued 951 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021) The pleasant weather continue today as high pressure continues to slowly move off to the east. Patterson (Issued 335 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021) Today through Wednesday Night: High pressure continues to sit over the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a little warmer than previous days with highs in the lower 80s, and it will feel a little more humid with dewpoints creeping into the lower 60s. Wednesday will be a notch warmer and more humid than today. A weak upper low is expected to meander into the region Wednesday and could provide just enough forcing for a few showers or isolated thunderstorm focused along the lake breeze.
629 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a ridge in the Rockies with a ridge on the east coast and a broad and weak trough over the Mississippi River valley. The trough in the Pacific NW moves into the western U. and the ridge stays on the east coast this forecast period.
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Another hot day is in store across the area as H5 ridging continues to influence afternoon high temperatures. This will be out ahead of a rather potent H5 trough that will bring precipitation chances to the area later in the week.
629 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A warm front will lift northeastward through the Commonwealth early this morning.
Hennig (Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper level trough combined with an outflow boundary moving into the Permian Basin are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area this morning that will continue into this afternoon. Tomorrow the upper trough migrates to the south shifting the higher PoPs and QPF to the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos.
Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week. Storms are expected to initiate mainly over the high terrain during the first half of the afternoon, before increasing in coverage later in the afternoon and evening particularly south and west of Flagstaff. Wednesday heights begin to fall as a longwave trough begins to dig into the western United States.
The highest rain chances are from Lake George to Orlando to Lake Okeechobee westward. Afternoon highs will reach the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s inland.
A sfc warm front should continue tracking N across the region today. The low is progged to reach Central WV by Wednesday morning, and continue NNEwd through the day. Ensembles and individual operational models differences indicate some continued uncertainty in the exact track of the low, and the resulting heavy rain potential. A few thunderstorms are also possible, though model progged instability is lacking, though a brief period of favorable shear is possible depending on the track of the low.
By afternoon, a lingering mid/upper trough and diurnally-driven instability will support isolated to scattered activity over roughly the southwestern half of the area with the highest PoP over southwestern AR. Broad deep-layer moisture advection will continue to increase through the period as a stronger trough moves inland over the PacNW and the upper pattern amplifies.
An elongated trough of low pressure that extends from the western Great lakes into eastern Texas coupled with a weak sea breeze, differential heating and PW values near or above 2. 850 mb temps support high temperatures in the lower and middle 90's. Will also go a bit cooler for MaxT values as 850 temps cool a little and clouds/precip limit heating. Most of the precip should wane with the loss of heating Wednesday night but it'll be humid and dew points will remain elevated so trended warmer for overnight lows.
500 mb ridging will build steadily over the region maintaining pretty stable conditions throughout the upcoming 24 hours. /issued 418 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will prevail over the RGV and the rest of the Gulf Coast throughout the short range period.
Temperatures range from the lower 60s to mid 70s, and expect temps to fall a couple more degrees before sunrise.
505 AM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Current surface map places trof/dry line across western South Dakota, with washed out outflow boundary across northwest South Dakota. Upper level trof is digging into the Pacific Northwest with ridge breaking down over the plains. pulling cold front into western South Dakota. Timing/placement of cold front will have big impact on highs Wednesday afternoon with >25F spread across the forecast area.
639 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Overnight temperatures remained quite warm, as winds remained high enough to the lower levels well mixed. Across the region, a few locations fell into the upper 60s, however, most locales remained in the lower 70s. Another hot day is in store across the area as H5 ridging continues to influence afternoon high temperatures. This will be out ahead of a rather potent H5 trough that will bring precipitation chances to the area later in the week.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will prevail over the RGV and the rest of the Gulf Coast throughout the short range period.
A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered.
409 AM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered. A strong cold front continues to move southward through the region.
Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue over the next few days as a weak upper level ridge axis remains nearly unchanged through the week.
Temperature observations across Northern California as of 3:00 am this morning are coming in about 5 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning. Temperatures today are also forecast to be notably cooler than yesterday with near normal highs expected.
A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered. A strong cold front continues to move southward through the region.
temperatures are in the low to middle 80s. While we won't feel any direct impacts from this storm, large scale subsidence to the west of the cyclone may limit the convective potential today. Expect generally dry weather overnight with temperatures falling into the lower 70s, but we expect patchy fog in the favored areas, possibly becoming dense at times. To the west, a rather potent trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest and will eventually settle over the western CONUS. The flow will be a bit messier between these primary features, though the general consensus favors a cut-off upper- level cyclone over the Upper Great Lakes by midweek with an attendant trough axis extending SSW through the Ozarks.
Muggy tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. An upper level ridge will build over the southeast in the wake of the TD. Temperatures will bounce back to climo with highs in the low 90s and upper 80s.
The upper-level trough remains in place stretching through eastern Texas along with a departing jet streak to our northeast that may provide limited upper-level divergence. With the decreased rainfall coverage in mind, afternoon temperatures will top out in the low-to-mid 90s. Due to the increased cloud cover and PoPs tomorrow, leaned a little bit below guidance on temperatures with highs topping out in the low 90s.
Look for another clear night tonight with lows once again in the 50s in most places and in the low 60s along the Lake Superior shoreline. Although 850 mb temps will be around 1-2 C warmer tomorrow, models also show a thicker patch of smoke advecting in which will probably limit surface warming.
Temperatures will be marginally cooler in the northeast, but these areas should still warm into the lower 80s with near 90 degrees expected further to the west with a nice, steady breeze. The upper-level trough, which has been situated over the Central CONUS for the past few days, will begin moving eastward tomorrow as the mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic begins to flatten and build towards the Gulf of Mexico. Slight height rises will favor afternoon highs in the lower 90s across the area.
This is where the higher rain chances for the rest of the afternoon are located. Mid level ridging is building in behind Fred which is advecting in drier mid level air with the best moisture below 850mb. Otherwise expect a mix of sun and clouds and highs Wednesday in the low to mid 90s.
The ridge east of Fred will be building over the region on Wednesday.
A cold front will slowly push across the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. As the low pressure system settles over the Northern Rockies, anticipate widespread steady precipitation, particularly across western Montana this evening and into Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge will build in over the region from the Atlantic. As for the local area, most will be under the influence of the upper ridge. Therefore, forecast highs (in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast) remain on track. Lows tonight will be warm, in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s near the coast. Highs Wednesday afternoon are expected to be in the lower 90s, with a few spots over inland areas inching towards the mid 90s. Lastly, the HIGH RISK of rip currents will continue through tonight.
This high moisture content is just shy of the climatological maximum for this date. As High pressure tries to build into the area, the models still show some weak synoptic lift, so expect showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours on Wednesday.
Otherwise, overnight lows are expected to sit in the 60s, with the highest values across the western CWA. Afternoon high temperatures will likely be influenced by precipitation, with warmer (mid-80s) values across the northern/western CWA and cooler values (low-80s) across the southern/eastern CWA.
1129 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A warm front will lift northeastward through the Commonwealth early this morning.
123 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a ridge in the Rockies with a ridge on the east coast and a broad and weak trough over the Mississippi River valley. The trough in the Pacific NW moves into the western U. and the ridge stays on the east coast this forecast period.
H5 energy will lift northeast through the day across MO/IL, with 850-500mb flow increasing due to strong ridging over the southeast U.
250 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Model data suggest weak upper troughing will remain over the Midwest area during this period. Very weak flow at 850mb suggests most of the activity will die off after sunset, however can't rule isolated activity overnight with the potential for minor disturbances moving through the upper trough. Forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night looks similar, with the potential for widely scattered convection mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, given the weak upper trough overhead, an unstable air mass, and a general lack of a real focus for precipitation.
Low pressure will push into the western Dakotas on Wednesday, sliding closer to central SD Wednesday night. Upper low/trof over the western CONUS at the start of the period is handled similarly by the various guidance.
More very typical August weather Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures very near normal in the lower 90s. With 12z NAM progging a 996 mb leeside cyclone near Denver Wednesday afternoon, elected to at or above the strongest wind guidance.
356 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Recent UA analysis and WV imagery shows a positively tilted trough from the mid-MS Valley southwest acrs the southern plains, with the midlevel circulation associated with TD Fred apparent over the southern Appalachians. The trough over the southern plains was producing a widespread swath of clouds and convection acrs S OK and N TX, with more sctd activity occurring to the east and southeast of this feature. At the sfc, weak high pres is beginning to ridge back acrs the northern Gulf as what's left of Fred continues to move inland. Outside of any cooling showers, temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s this aftn.
The dry period will likely be brief as rain returns early Wednesday morning with the low continuing its trek northeast ahead of the broad troughing over the central U.
218 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Upper air analysis shows upper ridging over the northern plains and an upper trough digging into the western CONUS. Ahead of the low, a tighter pressure gradient will bring in breezy conditions today. As we progress towards mid-week, ridge slides eastward and upper trough shifts over the rockies.
More very typical August weather Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures very near normal in the lower 90s. With 12z NAM progging a 996 mb leeside cyclone near Denver Wednesday afternoon, elected to go at or above the strongest wind guidance.
A low pressure system moving into the West will bring stronger onshore flow with gusty westerly winds in the mountains and deserts.
the pressure gradient will tighten from high pressure to the north and Grace to the south in the Florida straits.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) An upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest and another upper trough extends from the Great Lakes region southwest to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Upper lift from the trough and high moisture are resulting in the continual development of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The cloud cover and moisture are keeping temperatures cooler today with highs only expected to get up into the lower 80s across many locations. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward and strengthen on Wednesday. This trough will push the trough over West Texas eastward and cause it to weaken. This will result in the highest rain and storm chances being across the Lower Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and eastern Permian Basin on Wednesday.
On Sun, we will finally see a change to a drier trend, as an upper ridge starts building. While will still may see some development Sun-Tue, showers/storms will be much less numerous, and temps will get back toward season norms with most in the lower/mid 90s.
Weak easterly low level flow associated with low level anticyclone has also resulted in a slow mixing out process. Little change aloft as remnants of Fred lift through the ern lakes Wed aftn ahead of weak upper trough through the wrn lakes. Thu not too dissimilar although weak upper trough shifts into the ern lakes as better moisture remains ensconced ewd across OH.
343 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A breezy afternoon across the area with low pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley resulting in a decent SPG through the region.
Muggy tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. Ridge will begin to build into Wednesday with temperatures recovering to near 90 across the area as ensembles indicate heights above the 90th percentile. Lingering moisture will keep lows overnight Wednesday in the low to mid 70s.