Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level low will continue to move east and through the Rockies during the short term period with a strong upper level jet positioned south of this feature extending into the central Plains. Without copious moisture in the dendrite zone any precipitation that falls across this area should fall as freezing drizzle. As for temperatures, lows are anticipated to range from the lower teens across the KS/CO border to lower 20s across central and south central Kansas.
1153 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
A deep layer ridge will remain in place across the region.
1038 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CUT-OFF AND SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTAINS TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TO NEAR PAGOSA SPRINGS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OVER WRN CO WILL MOVE LITTLE AND BE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WHICH WILL HELP AID PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAN JUANS. AND OTHER HIGH RIDGES OF CENTRAL CO. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS IS STILL UNUSUALLY LOW.
Second, surface temps will once again approach the freezing mark across parts of northeast MO and west-central IL and with current and expected vertical temp profiles, would be supportive of a brief period of light freezing rain or sleet. Preferred the higher end of MOS temps for mins tonight and lower end of MOS for maxes Saturday with extensive cloud cover in place.
353 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WAS BETWEEN FT WAYNE AND LIMA THIS AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC SURFACES IN THE LOW LEVELS INDICATE DOWNGLIDE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CDFNT IN ASSOCD/W NRN EXTENSION OF SPLITTING UPR TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD ALG THE OH RVR SHRT TERM AND THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON SUN. CNTRL ROCKIES CLOSED LOW A BIT SLWR TO OPEN AND EJECT OUT ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY NXT WEEK AND DELAYED RAMP TO LIKELY POPS TO MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE TIMED W/NWD SURGING FNTL ZONE. THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTHWEST OF FT WAYNE BEFORE THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAF. ISENTROPIC SURFACES IN THE LOW LEVELS INDICATE DOWNGLIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA CONTINUES TO SPREAD A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. OFFSHORE WINDS PERSISTED IN THE NORTH BAY AND PARTS OF THE SFO BAY AREA WHICH KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
239 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS SO WEAK AND THE DRIVING FORCE IS A FAST-MOVING THING. IT MAY EITHER BUBBLE UP SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE NORTH - OR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE FOR SOME DZ. COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH OF PA WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE AT LEAST TWO MORE S/WVS MOVE THROUGH THE LOW POSITION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY DEFLECTING THE MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO OUR NW. REACHING THE LOWER 70S IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
209 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH THETA-E TROUGH PUSHES AND HOW FAST.
237 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SE LOWER MI TO NW AR WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THERE WAS ANOTHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. TONIGHT THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RIDGE LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. THERE IS A CUTOFF LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME SLIGHT WARMING TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD NUDGE THE FREEZING LINE W AGAIN. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF I44, WITH FZRA/PL ALSO IMPACTING GAG/WWR. SOME FREEZING. THE FREEZING LINE HAS NOW MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS CAA PEAKS.
/ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ TEXAS COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
348 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SE LOWER MI TO NW AR WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THERE WAS ANOTHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. TONIGHT THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RIDGE LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
255 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is currently in the vicinity of I-70. The forward progression of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. Even in the NW where the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and potential for a misty night remain. Forecast soundings not very supporting of any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the south by afternoon.
207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
308 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
1251 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTN UPDATE AS LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF A MIDWRN COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING. COOLER/SEASONAL TEMPS WILL FILTER OVR THE NRN COUNTIES AND SWD FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front has made it to the Presidio Valley/Big Bend, a little faster than models anticipated. Only limiting factor attm is sfc temps, which will hover right around freezing overnight for many locations. Further south/west, we've opted to merge the watch with the advisory, mainly to account for light ice accumulations overnight as freezing temps are reached.
WARMER START. LEAD IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
156 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 DECENT AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AS RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THOUGH STILL WARM.
1203 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 WE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY IN THE WILLISTON BASIN WHERE IT APPEARS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS BEING SLOWEST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH NOW OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. BEST MIXING AND WAA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FORECAST HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE LOWER 30S. COOLER ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A COL DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. AND A S/WV RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS HAVE PREVENTED ANY MELTING FROM OCCURRING.
226 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH GRADUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. COLDEST FROM THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S ON SATURDAY.
317 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AND SLEET REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE MODELS ACKNOWLEDGE. WITH THE FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. AND SLIPPERY BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD EDGE BACK WEST/NORTH TOMORROW. BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
1140 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
419 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING THEN CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES OVER THE FRESH SNOWCOVER.
1251 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN TODAY. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
1157 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS WE DEVELOP A DRY SLOT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. IT APPEARS THAT WE MIGHT BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE THERE IS WARMER AIR ALOFT. SO I AM GOING ALL FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE SLIGHT/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS IN OUR SOUTH.
A PREVAILING SE-S FLOW HAS ENABLED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. MOST CERTAINLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL VALUES OF 59. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN THE WARMER REGIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING SETTING UP OVER THE NW CONUS. AN UPPER LOW/WAVE MOVING UP THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM SUN-TUE. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. GUSTY S-SE WINDS TODAY WILL DECREASE BY 23-00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BRIEFLY CLOSER TO THE AREA.
BRISK NORTH WINDS USHERED COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT TRENDED WARMER WITH THIS FORECAST EXCEPT TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
QUIET AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT WAS THE PROXIMITY OF THAT RIDGE AXIS THAT HELPED ENABLE THE COLD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER. WEIGHT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COOLER NUMBERS PROVIDED BY RECENT BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS F FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. WE LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE WARMER EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN RESPECT TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISES OBSERVED FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER BUT WE KEPT THE DAYTIME FORECAST DRY EVERYWHERE BECAUSE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY.
1020 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015 Chilly temperatures and clear skies are expected through at least Friday as strong high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures should fall to or below the freezing mark tonight over all of the Big Country. But as the rain falls from a warm layer aloft, the warmer rain should help to keep temperatures at or above 31. As temperatures rise above 32 degrees by noon tomorrow, the freezing rain should end.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN CENTRAL OREGON. HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS (AFTER 28/02Z) AS THE INVERSION GETS STRONGER LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IMPACT MOST TAF SITES WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS, EXCEPT KDLS AND KYKM WHICH MAY CONTINUE UNDER ONLY A WEAK INVERSION WITH SOME MIXING PREVENTING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PERMIT FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THUS REMAINING AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE FOCUSING EFFECT OF A STRONGER INVERSION.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN.
/ISSUED 1020 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015/ WARM AND PLEASANT FRIDAY ON TAP AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A BIT ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA SO MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE 70 MARK AND LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 630 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015/ DRY AND MILD SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS SUIT. WILL SEE VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION.
The cold front is oriented right along our northwest border region, and is not moving fast at all. The 12Z NAM and GFS both bring a weak surface wave along the boundary Saturday morning, and then push the front east of our area in the early afternoon after the low passes.
251 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 Persistent dry and cold weather will continue through the weekend as the area remains between high pressure across British Columbia and low pressure over the Great Basin. A few flurries may fall from the low clouds but the main impact will be reduced visibility and potentially slippery roads from patchy dense freezing fog.
253 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT TO PROMPT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
May see some freezing rain develop in KABI tonight. Another cold front will push south of the Interstate 10 corridor by early afternoon. /issued 359 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ (Friday through Friday night) A cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and set the stage for additional rain and the potential for freezing rain or sleet across our northwestern counties. The cold front has pushed south this morning into West Central Texas and currently lies near a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Temperatures along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor will likely fall to near the freezing mark this afternoon and tonight; however, freezing rain or sleet will likely be limited to our western Big Country counties, for locations mainly along and northwest of a line from Sweetwater, to Anson, to Haskell.
SHOW THE DENSITY OF COLD AIR MASS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
206 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 VERY LITTLE CONCERNS THRU TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. NEW SNOW COVER MAY ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS THEN FORECAST. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES FELL SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW TOMORROW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SE.
Thus, will keep the freezing rain advisory where it is now, but as mentioned even a one degree drop will require expansion to the southeast.
1256 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT IS BEGINNING A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND. ALOFT, LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS SLOWLY BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RETREATS SLIGHTLY. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED A ROBUST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AT AROUND 800 MB, AND WHILE THIS LOOKS TO ERODE SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW, OVERALL PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS MINIMAL AND EXPECT FAST MOVING SHOWERS WITH A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES WILL CONTINUE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY DEFLECTING THE MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO OUR NW. REACHING THE LOWER 70S IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GUSTY S-SE WINDS TODAY WILL DECREASE BY 23-00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BRIEFLY CLOSER TO THE AREA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN CENTRAL OREGON.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
141 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD FRONT AS OF 20Z THIS BLACK FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM NEAR DEQ THROUGH GGG AND JSO LINE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN NV TO SLOWLY EJECT E THROUGH THE CENTRAL U. SE GULF OF MEXICO INFLOW OF SOME 30 KNOTS CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LOW IS STEERING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
220 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST AREAS WITH A BIT OF A SOUTHWEST WIND MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES OUT THERE. STUBBORN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE STARTING OFF QUITE COLD /BELOW ZERO IN SOME CASES/ AND THERE IS NOT AN OBVIOUS REASON TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WITH AN ELONGATED LOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA.
GFS/EURO ARE SLOWER WITH RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AND HAVE VERIFIED BETTER.
1147 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NATURAL STATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
340 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERLY IOWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING RAIN.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.
144 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS SO WEAK AND THE DRIVING FORCE IS A FAST-MOVING THING. IT MAY EITHER BUBBLE UP SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE NORTH - OR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE FOR SOME DZ. THE UPPER LOW UNDER THE BLOCK IS MADE TO ADVANCE STEADILY EAST AND EVENTUALLY UP THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES BY MID WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE FOR A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION TO SWING THROUGH AND BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
319 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A cold front has made it almost all the way through the region except for the southeast corner of the cwfa. Temperatures well back behind the front have stabilized with the sfc freezing line just west and nw of the cwfa.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE PERIOD. WITH SOME TEMPS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BH.
309 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
715 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. A POCKET OF MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN DIURNAL STRATOCU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AND PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS ALSO QUITE APPARENT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A COOLER START DUE TO RAIN.
The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. Along the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values continue to rise. The first will be along and just to the north of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS UNDERCUTTING BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRY EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER WISCONSIN/EASTERN MN WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. NEAR THE EXITING TROUGH AS TEMPERATURES WARMED BACK INTO THE MID 50S. PERHAPS A DEGREE COOLER TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ITEM OF NOTE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS E OK.
THIS AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ERODING AWAY THE LOWER CLOUDINESS WITH CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.
/ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT.
An upper trough digging south over the northern and central Rockies will close off over the Four Corners area by mid-day tomorrow as a north-south oriented dryline tightens over the central CWA. As the upper low continues to move east over northern New Mexico through the afternoon hours, the dryline and associated thunderstorm activity will push further east over our eastern tier of counties by early evening.
An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri. With the upper low exiting the Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free. A large scale trough across the western U. will evolve into a quasi-closed off upper level low. This low may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. 73 /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.