Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For this evening through Monday afternoon, the ridge to our east will continue to bring moist southeasterly low level flow over the region, resulting in another plume of moisture working its way up from the Gulf. Expect highs once again in the low to mid 90s as the thermal ridge remains at around the same strength. (Monday Night through Sunday) Synoptically an upper level ridge will be centered across the the Southeast U. while an upper level trough remains across the western CONUS. The upper level ridge to our east will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70s, and while there may be some patchy ground fog in areas that received rain today, breezy southerly winds should help mitigate more widespread development. A relatively quiet weather day is expected on Monday as the area will remain in between a large upper trough over the Intermountain West and high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Persistent high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep conditions fairly comfortable tonight, but hot and dry across the CWA again Monday afternoon.
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern over Texas.
Scattered rain and snow showers developing early this afternoon mostly over the higher terrain.
354 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Mid to upper level ridging centered across the Gulf Coast will extend over the area through the weekend.
940 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 A broad, cool trough will dominate the region early this week.
Dynamically forced trough will be the focus for showers and TS this afternoon and evening. Main cold front will arrive tonight with winds turning NW and increasing, esp in the lee of the BH where breezy conds can be expected through the night. Another impulse from the western CONUS upper trough will support renewed FGEN over the region, with rain and even some snow (high elevation and NE WY). This impulse will support another cold front into the region Tues, with much colder air expected. Highs Tues will struggle out of the 30s at many locations in the western 1/2-1/3, with lingering rain and snow into Wed as the main upper low shifts east supporting unsettled conds. Upper low will shift east Wed, with drier weather expected for the last half of the week.
Upper ridging will continue to build into the area with dry conditions expected for the first portion of the work week. Cold front with noticeably cooler temperatures still on track to move into the region later this week.
149 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Mostly dry weather can be expected this afternoon under building high pressure. Low-level convergence along the ridges will allow a few showers and thunderstorms to fire in that region this afternoon.
/19/ High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain hot conditions across the forecast area again today. Under the influence of a ridge of high pressure building directly overhead today, subsidence and abundant sunshine will once again allow for temperatures to climb into the mid 90s across our forecast area - perhaps a degree warmer than yesterday.
Snow will continue to fall across much of southwest/west-central Montana and the higher terrain of central Idaho into this evening. Many locations will drop well below freezing tonight. Skies will begin to clear Monday night as brief high pressure moves into the area.
Strong southerly winds will continue tonight as the deep lee trough continues across eastern Colorado.
/issued 418 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Convergent banding starting to set up on the western periphery the high located on the east coast. The area with the highest chances of getting rain will be along and west of the Miss River. KLG High pressure over the east coast will keep winds mainly out of a SE direction through much of this week.
308 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 The western CONUS trough driving our synoptic pattern continues to work south, while bringing snow to the northern Rockies. The leading edge of the trough is approaching the Four Corners region this afternoon as a large moisture plume from Tropical Storm Narda has begun pushing north through Old Mexico. Southwest H50 flow will persist through midweek over our region between the advancing trough and the amplified ridge spread across the SE CONUS.
248 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances return later tonight and into Monday with a warm front.
A troughing west/ridging east upper air pattern will remained locked in place into the middle of this week. Strong upper ridging, with 500mb heights into the mid 590s decameter heights, and a high pressure situated over/just east of the region, will continue very warm to hot temperatures to start of a new month. The next few days should feature high temperatures into the low/mid 90s. The strength of the ridge and weaker upper level support will result in nil rain chances for the period. High pressure located over the southeast is expected to continue to dominate the weather for the second half of the week.
A very slow moving, unseasonably cold upper level trough will linger over our area into Monday night.
/issued 946 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Expansive deep layer ridging will prevail from the Gulf of Mexico through much of the eastern CONUS, as downstream troughing aloft persists from the southern Bahamas into the Caribbean Sea. The best moisture should remain towards the lower portion of the troposphere, thus limiting rain coverage and intensity. The upper ridge should elongate and push away to our north as troughing aloft advances into our area from the east.
With cooler temperatures expected tomorrow, that results in a bit more humidity and less fire weather concerns.
Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected tonight. Persistent high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep conditions fairly comfortable tonight, but hot and dry across the CWA again Monday afternoon.
1044 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Dry high pressure will ridge into the forecast area through tonight. There will be a small chance of showers or thunderstorms associated with a diffuse cold front Monday. Otherwise, ridging will dominate through the middle of the week. Upper ridge remains entrenched over the region centered over the central Gulf Coast states. A weak cold front was located across northern NC and will continue to sink south toward the forecast area overnight. Abundant low level moisture beneath the upper ridge and developing northeasterly flow along and behind the frontal boundary may support some stratus development across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region late tonight. A backdoor cold front pushes into the Midlands and CSRA on Monday.
An unseasonably cold upper low will be over the area tonight for a few rain showers in the lowlands and snow showers in the mountains.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Upper ridging will persist across the Lower Mississippi Valley early in the period keeping summer still in the horizon. By mid week, a significant upper level trough across the western CONUS will push east and start suppress our downstream subtropical ridge. This flattening ridge will allow a fairly strong cold front to move through the area.
811 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 The combination of an upper level disturbance and warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers tonight, along with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, skies will become partly cloudy for Monday with much warmer conditions as the warm front lifts to the north.
Much cooler conditions will continue today as a cold upper-level storm system drops south across the western United States.
1008 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Canadian high pressure will move into our region bringing a frosty night. Expect cool and sunny conditions on Monday as high pressure shifts to the east.
831 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 An upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. /issued 233 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Upper ridging will persist across the Lower Mississippi Valley early in the period keeping summer still in the horizon. By mid week, a significant upper level trough across the western CONUS will push east and start suppress our downstream subtropical ridge. This flattening ridge will allow a fairly strong cold front to move through the area.
626 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Upper-level ridge aloft to maintain dry conditions through the terminal forecast period ending 31/00Z. /Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure ridge continues to slowly expand westward, becmg nearly centered over the the Arklamiss.
Cold temperatures will be the main concern next couple of days as it is expected to remain below freezing during the early morning hours.
Otherwise, temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s areawide. /issued 626 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Upper-level ridge aloft to maintain dry conditions through the terminal forecast period ending 31/00Z. /Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure ridge continues to slowly expand westward, becmg nearly centered over the the Arklamiss.
945 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Relatively quiet night on hand as a well organized deep lyr anticyclone centered over the Mid South generates a steady E/NE breeze acrs the FL Peninsula.
542 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Canadian high pressure will move into our region bringing a frosty night. Expect cool and sunny conditions on Monday as high pressure shifts to the east.
At this point we're expecting the low to track over our northeastern counties by 15Z Monday and into northern MN by 21Z. The cold front lingering across NE/southeastern SD/IA, with another CO low edging up along the low, and the continuation of energy from the large 500mb trough over the western U. This will keep temperatures from falling much below the lower to mid 40s. A mid-level trof over the western CONUS will lift out across the Northern Plains through the middle of this week. Occasional shower chances are expected during that time period, especially as energy aloft helps form a sfc wave along a cold front situated across Nebraska/Iowa.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 95 71 93 / 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 93 71 92 / 10 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 93 69 92 / 10 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 87 66 88 / 10 20 0 20.
255 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Much cooler weather along with a chance of showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow today into Monday. Water vapor imagery indicates a vort max moving down the back side of the trough this afternoon, with lightning strikes being detected off the OR/CA coasts. Localized amounts up to 8-12" will be possible over the highest mountain peaks including Lassen National Park. 50 inches (with the highest amounts in the mountains and foothills), although locally heavy amounts (up to 0. Precipitation will continue into Monday afternoon over the mountains as the main upper low lifts northeast. Then, dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures return by mid-week. Significantly cooler temperatures will continue through early this week, generally 10 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages.
A broad lower to mid level ridge is centered over the southern Appalachians while an upper level high is over Louisiana and northern Gulf of Mexico.
312 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 A broad, cool trough will dominate the region early this week.
648 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Very quiet TAF cycle this go around with high pressure both aloft and on the surface dominating.
As the low pressure system approaches the region overnight, may see the storms to the west hold together and intensify. At this point we're expecting the low to track over our northeastern counties by 15Z Monday and into northern MN by 21Z. The cold front lingering across NE/southeastern SD/IA, with another CO low edging up along the low, and the continuation of energy from the large 500mb trough over the western U. This will keep temperatures from falling much below the lower to mid 40s. A mid-level trof over the western CONUS will lift out across the Northern Plains through the middle of this week. Occasional shower chances are expected during that time period, especially as energy aloft helps form a sfc wave along a cold front situated across Nebraska/Iowa.
Strong high pressure stretching across the Gulf of Mexico from the eastern seaboard continues with a tight pressure gradient resulting in robust northeast to east winds with elevated seas. The high pressure weakens mid to late week with a relaxing gradient allowing winds and seas to diminish.
/issued 308 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ The western CONUS trough driving our synoptic pattern continues to work south, while bringing snow to the northern Rockies. The leading edge of the trough is approaching the Four Corners region this afternoon as a large moisture plume from Tropical Storm Narda has begun pushing north through Old Mexico. Southwest H50 flow will persist through midweek over our region between the advancing trough and the amplified ridge spread across the SE CONUS.
This September is over two degrees warmer than August's mean average temperature! It will be interesting to see if this ranking holds over the next few days.
234 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with a diffuse cold front in the area. Otherwise, ridging will dominate through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will continue to sink south into the forecast area. Abundant low level moisture beneath the upper ridge and developing northeasterly flow along and behind the frontal boundary may support some stratus development across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region early this morning. The upper ridge will remain entrenched over the Deep South today. Another day of above normal temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 90s. The cold front will remain in the area overnight, and showers could persist through the late evening before dissipating.
305 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 The near term forecast is basically one of persistence as high pressure at both the surface and aloft remains anchored over the southeastern U.
303 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 An anomalous 5h height pattern is in place across the CONUS with a strong ridge across the srn states and a deep/cold trof in the nwrn states. East of said nwrn trof is an upper level jet that will not move too much.
Surface winds will stay strong all day long across the region as a lee side trough and deepening low pressure in eastern Colorado will continue a tight pressure gradient across western Kansas.
331 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Today and Tonight: Not much change anticipated in the short term forecast as deep layered ridge remains parked across the region. After a somewhat cool start of the day in the mid to upper 60s, afternoon temperatures should warm similarly to yesterday with maximums as they were or perhaps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. The dry air in the lower levels will support another day of deep mixing and afternoon dewpoints falling into the mid 60s. While conditions will be hot, heat indices will not pose a problem with the lower dewpoints.
/GG/ Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected tonight. Persistent high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep conditions fairly comfortable tonight, but hot and dry across the CWA again Monday afternoon.
312 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 A strong subtropical ridge (aka Death Ridge) will maintain its grip on the Mid-South through midweek, resulting in what is essentially a copy and paste forecast for the next 3 days. Strong subsidence associated with this ridge will preclude convection across the CWA with mostly sunny conditions and light south winds.
Upper level ridging centered across the Lower Mississippi River Valley will dominate today while at the surface, high pressure is centered off the northeast coast with the system extending southward along the east coast.
242 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Deep upper trof continues over the western CONUS per water vapor. At the surface, low center is over central SD with cold front having moved through all but far south central SD early this morning.
Strong mid level ridge over the Deep South will dominate the pattern through the period with VFR conditions expected.
Summer-like high pressure will remain over the region through this taf period and well beyond.
Another round of streamer showers are possible this morning as the low level jet ramps up, with these likely diminishing by mid morning.
/issued 831 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ An upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. /issued 233 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/ Upper ridging will persist across the Lower Mississippi Valley early in the period keeping summer still in the horizon. By mid week, a significant upper level trough across the western CONUS will push east and start suppress our downstream subtropical ridge. This flattening ridge will allow a fairly strong cold front to move through the area.
1134 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Upper-level ridge aloft to maintain dry conditions through the terminal forecast period ending 01/06Z. Otherwise, temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s areawide. /Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure ridge continues to slowly expand westward, becmg nearly centered over the the Arklamiss.
The mean upper low remains in place across the western CONUS this evening with west to southwesterly flow aloft over Utah. Expect temperatures near to below freezing in the higher valleys as well as the normally colder valleys of northern, central, and southwest Utah tonight.
1115 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Much cooler weather along with a chance of showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow today into Monday. JHM Water vapor imagery indicates a vort max moving down the back side of the trough this afternoon, with lightning strikes being detected off the OR/CA coasts. Localized amounts up to 8-12" will be possible over the highest mountain peaks including Lassen National Park. 50 inches (with the highest amounts in the mountains and foothills), although locally heavy amounts (up to 0. Precipitation will continue into Monday afternoon over the mountains as the main upper low lifts northeast. Then, dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures return by mid-week. Significantly cooler temperatures will continue through early this week, generally 10 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages.
930 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019 A broad, cool trough will dominate the region early this week.
452 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Storm system has mostly moved to the east although the upper low remains over the northern Rockies. High pressure will begin to slide east today and attempt to clear out the low cloud and fog over eastern Montana. While the recent moisture should keep the most of the clouds over the state, as the upper low shifts slightly east, temperatures should cool as little more.
The near term forecast is basically one of persistence as high pressure at both the surface and aloft remains anchored over the southeastern U.
Otherwise, the ridge continues to dominate as VISSAT shows little cloud cover over the southern valley at this time, while northward quite a bit of cu is evident. The now 596dm anticyclone will keep convection suppressed over the southern valley today, leaving the central/northern valley and the high terrain as the plausible candidates for precipitation. With that, pops in the valley north of I40 remain in the isolated range, while scattered pops are featured across the high terrain of east TN and southwest VA/NC. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 71 95 71 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 71 93 71 / 20 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 94 69 93 69 / 20 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 66 88 66 / 30 10 10 10.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Not much change anticipated in the short term forecast as deep layered ridge remains parked across the region. After a somewhat cool start of the day in the mid to upper 60s, afternoon temperatures should warm similarly to yesterday with maximums as they were or perhaps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. The dry air in the lower levels will support another day of deep mixing and afternoon dewpoints falling into the mid 60s. While conditions will be hot, heat indices will not pose a problem with the lower dewpoints.
The deep trough of low pressure will linger over the western United States for next couple of days. This trough will keep temperatures well below normal for this time of year, as near record daily low maximum temperatures are expected today. The dynamic part of the low pressure system has moved off to the east, but lingering instability will cause scattered showers throughout the region.
Little change aloft as the Subtropical Ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley extends across South Central Texas into northeastern Mexico while an upper level trough centered over the Great Basin extends to the California coast. The main differences are in the lower to mid levels. While the low level jet weakens this morning, heating takes over to keep showers and isolated thunderstorms going into this afternoon and early evening. While the moderate low level jet redevelops overnight, a somewhat drier airmass rotates around the Ridge into our area by Tuesday.
Southerly winds south of the warm front over the eastern part of the state is producing temps in the 70s. The warm front should lift northward over northeastern SD through the morning hours with highs likely reaching the mid 70s. The warmth will not last long as a surface cold front pushes through the CWA by midday with temps falling in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue north of the warm front through the morning hours today. While dry conditions are expected this evening, another area of low pressure south of the region will begin spreading showers into the area later tonight. Tuesday will be abnormally cold with highs only in the upper 40s, to the low 50s.
330 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Cooler weather along with a chance of showers continues today. 1 to 3 inches of snowfall accumulation will be possible across the higher passes with locally higher accumulations over the peaks. Dry weather will return tonight and Tuesday as the trough shifts east.
233 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019 A broad, cool trough will dominate the West early this week.
The current pattern features a strong upper high over the southern/southeastern CONUS and a strong upper low over the NW CONUS. This pattern breaks down, resulting in troughs and cooler air being distributed east. A cold front will move through late Wed into Wed night.
Fog across the Suwannee Valley is beginning to scatter, and while temperatures are a little cooler than forecast, they should rebound quickly in the next couple of hours. Upper level ridging centered across the Lower Mississippi River Valley will dominate today while at the surface, high pressure is centered off the northeast coast with the system extending southward along the east coast.
Otherwise high pressure will dominate the weather pattern today into tonight.
A warming and drying trend will begin Tuesday as high pressure settles into the region. Precipitation amounts so not appear to be significant with one, perhaps 2 more inches of snow in the higher mountain ranges while valleys could see just a few hundredths at most through this evening. Trough axis finally moves eastward Tuesday allowing a drier northwest flow to move into the region. There could be a few snow showers in the higher terrain of northern Elko county Tuesday but no accumulation is expected. Slow moving closed upper low over Montana is dragging its axis across the eastern Great Basin Tuesday night.
Dry weather and warm temperature are expected for Tuesday with cooler weather late in the week. With strong warm/moist advection associated with the sfc warm front, afternoon temperatures should push into the low/mid 80s outside of the ridges and I-80 corridor. Remaining showers across the ridges will clear this evening, leaving dry weather areawide for the overnight. Dry weather will continue under the expanding Southeast ridge on Tuesday, with peak temperatures approaching or exceeding 90F for a large portion of the forecast area. Any thunderstorm chance will be dependent on weak capping and exact positioning of the ridge axis.