Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1121 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Currently - A trough just off the Atlantic coast extends into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, while the Atlantic ridge extends westwards across the Keys and Florida Straits. A midlatitude trough extends down the the Atlantic states and just reaches into South Florida and the Keys. This is resulting in quite a lot of CAPE despite the lower level ridge moving nearer our area over the past 24 hours. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will remain near the island chain through the overnight period. A ridge across Keys waters will gradually turn the convectively disturbed wind field to a gentle southeast to southerly flow.
205 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cold front has moved through Big Timber-Billings-Forsyth as of 0745Z. Courtesy of the surge of Pacific air, today will be significantly cooler than yesterday (by 15-25 degrees) but still above mid June normals. Despite the cooler temps we will still see afternoon humidity in the mid teens to mid 20s.
Beside the heat, the other potential concern will be thunderstorm chances by late afternoon along/ahead of an advancing cold front.
Latest upper air analysis has the upper ridge axis over the western half of the CWA as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is located across the the Dakotas with lee trof developing across central Montana and Wyoming. The strong upper low over the Pacific Northwest will move across Canada, flatting the central CONUS ridge, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning.
Regardless, the air is cooler and much drier than earlier in the week. The upper level pattern is fairly amplified for mid-June with a deep trough across the Eastern CONUS. A ridge is centered across the Four Corners Region and extends northward into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is centered to the north across the Great Lakes with the a cold front to the south stretching from E-W along the northern Gulf Coast. Temperatures and dewpoints will nudge up through the remainder of the short-term forecast period as the trough exits and the ridge expands eastward.
329 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning.
653 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern today. Model consensus continues to forecast the highest temperatures of the week over many locations this afternoon. Expect more convective buildups over the higher terrain of the San Juan mountains with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds expected near storms.
436 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cold front has pushed through all of our cwa except the far southeast corner, which is within an hour of seeing the fropa. JKL Cold front has moved through Big Timber-Billings-Forsyth as of 0745Z. Courtesy of the surge of Pacific air, today will be significantly cooler than yesterday (by 15-25 degrees) but still above mid June normals. Despite the cooler temps we will still see afternoon humidity in the mid teens to mid 20s. Temps tomorrow will again be mostly in the 80s (a couple degrees warmer than today).
529 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion Windy conditions are expected today in wake of yesterday's Pacific cold front, with high temperatures generally ranging from the 70s up north to the low 80s down south.
With ample 1000-700 mb moisture being pumped in from the southwest, a low- level veering wind profile (albeit light flow), and upper- level troughing present just north of the island chain, continued increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to develop in-situ. As a strong ridge builds into the Florida Keys tonight, breezes will freshen, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh Thursday through the end of the weekend.
Breezy conditions today with a cold front moving through the state highlights the short term forecast period. Though somewhat cooler temperatures (low 80s) are expected behind the front, dry air with relative humidity falling to around 20 percent will combine with the northwest winds to create near critical fire weather conditions (current fuel status precluding fire weather headlines). Surface dew points into the low 60s and very steep mid level lapse rates will accompany the front this afternoon in the southeast, however the warm air and capping inversion aloft should keep any chance of convection unlikely.
Still under the influence of a mid-level ridge, warm temperatures are expected to occur once again today, with highs in the upper 80s near the coast to near 100 degrees across the Brush Country. Sufficient moisture in the low level, daytime heating, and low CIN values are expected to lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
515 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Fairly quiet morning based on latest observations and satellite as trough axis stretches from Broadus, Montana down to Lusk, Wyoming and further south to La Junta, Colorado. Another warm and relatively dry day in store for many as our persist upper level ridge erodes with advancement of cold front to our northwest. After a record setting day across Wyoming and Nebraska for high temperatures, another warm day in store albeit a few degrees cooler but still into the 90s for many. Model solutions trend with evolution of the cold front passage transitioning into more of a stationary front with cooler temperatures compared to previous days but still above normal prior to going into the weekend with zonal to northwest flow starting the weekend period.
401 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Fairly quiet morning based on latest observations and satellite as trough axis stretches from Broadus, Montana down to Lusk, Wyoming and further south to La Junta, Colorado. Another warm and relatively dry day in store for many as our persist upper level ridge erodes with advancement of cold front to our northwest. After a record setting day across Wyoming and Nebraska for high temperatures, another warm day in store albeit a few degrees cooler but still into the 90s for many. Model solutions trend with evolution of the cold front passage transitioning into more of a stationary front with cooler temperatures compared to previous days but still above normal prior to going into the weekend with zonal to northwest flow starting the weekend period.
Temperatures will also soar under a ridge aloft with the good mixing. The upper ridge flattens on Thursday bringing slightly cooler highs in the 80s. To start the period, the region will be in westerly flow as upper level high pressure dominates from the southern plains to the west coast and low pressure churns over central Canada.
Beside the heat, the other potential concern will be thunderstorm chances by late afternoon along/ahead of an advancing cold front. Additionally, some guidance hints at a narrow corridor of lower LCLs and better curvature to the low level hodograph thus precluding being able to completely rule out an isolated tornado.
Thursday still looks to be the hottest day of the work week, especially across west central and north central Kansas given the location of the 850mb ridge axis. This ridge axis will be located just ahead of a cold front which will be working its way south across Nebraska into extreme northern Kansas during the day.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat the rest of the week. This high pressure centered over the four corners region will help more mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of daily isolated mainly dry thunderstorms.
/Issued 218 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/ More hot and dry weather is on the way for the next few days with large ridge aloft to our west expanding northeast over the central and northern Plains. Still some signal in the CAM data for some isolated shower/storm potential mainly in the terrain of NW AR on the ridge's eastern periphery this afternoon, but the vast majority of us remain dry.
617 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Another quiet night across the region with high pressure in control. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures at 1 am ranged from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. High pressure budges east more into the Great Lakes region as mid- level ridge of high pressure builds directly overhead. This will provide another dry and slightly warmer day under ample sunshine. Right now, it appears the highest threat for this will be generally be along and south of I-90.
High pressure aloft will build across the area from the four corners region during the last half of the week, bringing triple digit interior heat for the latter portion of this week. Significant warming is forecast for the interior as an upper ridge over the 4-corners region expands NW over N California.
Our area will remain on the eastern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which will remain west of the area, centered near the Four Corners region through Thursday.
615 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Amplified upper ridge was centered over the four corners region of the U. There is some weak energy on the eastern periphery of the ridge axis, but regional radar looks clear early this morning. Further east, temperatures had dropped into the low 60s. Fairly high confidence in temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90s today with the higher readings over western MO and southeast Kansas. Some weak upper energy to the east of the ridge axis will push across the area tonight.
Continued dry and cooler weather to continue Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak CAA with 925-850mb northerly flow will continue cooler than normal temperatures. With troughing across the Southern Appalachians, a cool and dry low-level airmass, and calm winds, below normal temperatures are forecast tonight and Thursday morning.
538 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 (Today and tonight) Highs today will increase a few degrees over yesterday's values as the upper ridge amplifies further to our west and heights rise slightly over the area. With the continued influence of upper ridging and a stagnated airmass, air quality will once again be poor for portions of central OK, where Air Quality Alerts are in effect. Lows tonight will drop off into the low 70s under continued mainly clear skies.
639 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure and very dry air will sustain clear skies through the TAF period. * None A potent upper wave moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest early this morning squeezing upper ridging over the central US and displacing it eastward toward the Great Lakes.
The most notable change with the front will be the arrival of a much drier airmass with dew points dropping into the low to mid 60s and PWATs below 1".
1021 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will provide seasonable and dry weather through Thursday.
634 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will build over the area mid to late week. Another cold front will approach the area this weekend.
/issued 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. Although, humidity levels may begin creeping up each day as the high begins shifting east.
Today Through Thursday Night High pressure aloft continues to be centered over the Four Corners region. This large area of high pressure is affecting the western two thirds of the country. Highs today and Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight and Thrusday night will be in the lower 70s.
Weak high pressure will build into the region today and persist through the end of the week.
952 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A cold front that moved southward across the area a bit more than a day ago has made it to the Gulf Coast. Dewpoints in the upper 50s this morning should rise into the lower 60s, mainly west of I-65 in the later afternoon and evening. Temperatures and dewpoints will nudge up through the remainder of the short-term forecast period as the trough exits and the ridge expands eastward.
Flow aloft over Colorado will remain weak and smoke from fires across the west will continue to pool under the ridge, with the overall concentration aloft gradually increasing over northeast Colorado.
626 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will provide seasonable and dry weather through Thursday.
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over Lake Superior. extending south through the Ohio Valley toward the lower Mississippi River Valley. highly amplified ridge in place over the northern plains. the models continue to depict the large high pressure system moving ever slowly southward toward Indiana and Illinois. Aloft the sharp ridge is expected to make progress toward the Western Great Lakes. The upper ridge axis is expected to still be intact over the Great Lakes. On Thursday the sharp upper ridge axis is depicted to diminish somewhat as it settles across Indiana. although given the ridge axis placement would not be surprised to see some ridge riding cirrus aloft.
651 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern today. Model consensus continues to forecast the highest temperatures of the week over many locations this afternoon. Expect more convective buildups over the higher terrain of the San Juan mountains with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds expected near storms.
/issued 259 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/ Summer conditions will continue to prevail as an intense upper level anticyclone remains centered over the Four Corners.
620 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
619 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Pleasant weather will prevail today as a high pressure area drifts south across the Upper Great Lakes region.
For now, still expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, with the highest chances remaining south of Orlando. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop through the afternoon hours, with the highest coverage occurring from KMLB southward. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again today, with the highest coverage generally from Melbourne southward.
315 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern today. Model consensus continues to forecast the highest temperatures of the week over many locations this afternoon. Expect more convective buildups over the higher terrain of the San Juan mountains with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds expected near storms.
The strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the desert southwest.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region and extends east into the Southern Plains. Convection has overperformed the last few days as convection over the Plains to lower Mississippi Valley has formed into impulses and rotated to the southwest and west in the flow aloft under the Ridge.
Weak ridging builds across the Pacific NW through the remainder of the week.
1055 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure continues to build into the region, resulting in quiet weather over the CWA. This feature continues off to the southeast tonight toward the base of a large upper level trough over the East Coast. In its wake, southerly return flow along with an approaching upper level ridge will bring a gradual warm up to the region.
This feature continues off to the southeast tonight toward the base of a large upper level trough over the East Coast. In its wake, southerly return flow along with an approaching upper level ridge will bring a gradual warm up to the region.
956 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A trough and upper energy is in place across the southern zones this morning, with another boundary in place just to the north of the area along the northern Gulf coast. The high pressure ridge to the south of the state will be lifting north over the next couple of days, with winds shifting and becoming lighter, and afternoon sea breezes dominating the flow near the coast.
High pressure will bring a mostly clear sky, light northerly winds, and VFR conditions through the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 62 88 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 59 84 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 84 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 49 81 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0.
345 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Widespread triple digit heat expected for the lower elevations into the weekend. Temperatures are mostly higher compared to 24 hours ago with only the mountain valleys seeing cooler readings under a much drier airmass and lighter winds.
512 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over Lake Superior. extending south through the Ohio Valley toward the lower Mississippi River Valley. highly amplified ridge in place over the northern plains. the models continue to depict the large high pressure system moving ever slowly southward toward Indiana and Illinois. Aloft the sharp ridge is expected to make progress toward the Western Great Lakes. The upper ridge axis is expected to still be intact over the Great Lakes. On Thursday the sharp upper ridge axis is depicted to diminish somewhat as it settles across Indiana. although given the ridge axis placement would not be surprised to see some ridge riding cirrus aloft.
A mid tropospheric ridge remains in place from the southwest US up into Manitoba. There is a trough over the Pacific northwest, and a jetstreak of around 100 knots at 300 mb was associated with that trough. Thermal ridge at 700 mb was quite impressive, with 22 C at Flagstaff and 16 C as far northeast at Glasgow. Highs yesterday were mostly in the lower 90s, with extremes of 89 at Albion to 94 at Omaha Eppley, Millard and Wayne. Expect most areas today to be about 5-9 degrees warmer, biggest changes are expected in the western parts of the forecast area. Mid level heights start to decrease a bit in our area as a closed low at 500 mb tracks east across central Canada.
1126 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure, light winds and lower dewpoints will continue today. /issued 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. Although, humidity levels may begin creeping up each day as the high begins shifting east.
141 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will provide seasonable and dry weather through Thursday.
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
Concerning the tropics: We are still monitoring the area of broad low pressure over the Bay of Campeche.
1037 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Denver has gotten off to a warmer start than yesterday as the temperature reached 90 degrees before 10AM while it didn't reach 90 degrees until around 11:15AM yesterday. No adjustments were made to the high temperature forecast for today as many records will fall. Flow aloft over Colorado will remain weak and smoke from fires across the west will continue to pool under the ridge, with the overall concentration aloft gradually increasing over northeast Colorado.
1153 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Mid-level cloud cover continues shifting south over the Ozark Mountains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, highlighting the position of the next frontal boundary to impact the Ark-La-Tex from the east.
High pressure continues to build into the region, resulting in quiet weather over the CWA. This feature continues off to the southeast tonight toward the base of a large upper level trough over the East Coast. In its wake, southerly return flow along with an approaching upper level ridge will bring a gradual warm up to the region.
Aloft, our region will be within N/NW flow between ridging to our west and troughing to the east. There are indications some weak energy may migrate through Missouri on Thursday, around the periphery of the upper ridge.
251 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Today: Not a lot has changed with a mid to upper level ridge remaining firmly in place over the southwest United States.
This lower tropospheric theta-e ribbon spreads eastward through this afternoon and evening and will be the driver for peak heating showers and storms in western Minnesota. Clearing skies and the passage of a 26-28C H925 thermal ridge axis should push highs into the upper 80s to mid-90s for the afternoon. Storms should grow upscale along the cold front and present an increasing heavy rainfall threat through the overnight hours as they shift south and east.
109 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A stationary front will remain just offshore today, then give way to a cold front tonight. Then, high pressure will build across the Southeast U. An upstream cold front will move in overnight, but it arrives with limited moisture, poor instability and forcing. High pressure in the Ohio Valley and Midwest will build in behind the front, as it passes through most of the forecast area by morning. The air mass with this feature is not only drier, but also a bit cooler. As skies clear out, and winds become light or calm, radiational cooling will support lows dropping to the lower and middle 60s far inland, upper 60s and lower 70s along the coastal zones.
355 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
128 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Pleasant weather will prevail today as a high pressure area drifts south across the Upper Great Lakes region.
308 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure is currently sitting over the region leading to mostly clear skies and light, variable winds. A switch to a more southerly flow tomorrow will bring back warmer temperatures, with highs expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
High pressure will move east across the area today, and eventually set up across the Mid Atlantic by Thursday night. The end result will be dry and warmer weather as return flow sets up across the region.
This forecast is consistent with the expected location of a cold front shown by the NAM and RAP models along or just south of Interstate 80.
We stay largely ridge dominated through Thursday with some weakening of the NW flow aloft.
Another relatively dry and hot day is forecast for Thursday with highs in the lower 90s across the Hill Country to near 100 across the southwest counties.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low was centered over the Four Corners region, bringing northeast flow aloft.
Looking aloft, we are still locked into the eastern portion of upper-level ridging centered over the Intermountain West that has been giving us unseasonably warm temperatures. A look at the surface reveals a northwest to southeast oriented warm front just west of the Nebraska/Iowa border.
1121 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
There is still some signal for isolated convection across the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas late this afternoon, so will leave the low pops there in place. /Issued 218 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/ More hot and dry weather is on the way for the next few days with large ridge aloft to our west expanding northeast over the central and northern Plains. Still some signal in the CAM data for some isolated shower/storm potential mainly in the terrain of NW AR on the ridge's eastern periphery this afternoon, but the vast majority of us remain dry.
A cold front that moved southward across the area a bit more than a day ago has made it to the Gulf Coast. Dewpoints in the upper 50s this morning should rise into the lower 60s, mainly west of I-65 in the later afternoon and evening. Temperatures and dewpoints will nudge up through the remainder of the short-term forecast period as the trough exits and the ridge expands eastward.
152 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period as high pressure and a very dry airmass will sustain clear skies. * None A potent upper wave moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest early this morning squeezing upper ridging over the central US and displacing it eastward toward the Great Lakes.
High pressure is situated over the region with light winds and temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s.