Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few of the high res model runs show training convective development over or near both the Hayden and Junkins scars this evening. Also, while the plains are acting pretty stable right now with all of the low, stratiform clouds and cool temps, hi res models show the convection coming off the mountains perturbing the flow enough to get things going across the plains this evening.
These building heights will prompt slightly warmer temperatures. The low level convergence boundary advertised by some of the models is not present, but temperature/dewpoint spreads were just a few degrees at Baker. Cyclonic flow was present over northern California associated with energy caught underneath a building ridge. A reinforcing shot of cooler air, although not as strong the the previous ones, will slide in Tuesday afternoon and evening, turning winds northerly. Pre-frontal warming will allow for slightly warmer temperatures.
304 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Cold front is currently located across the mid state this afternoon. In the ext fcst, the broad troughing pattern over the eastern U.
250 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure will move east across the area this afternoon.
Temperatures look to fall into the lower to mid 50s outside of the Chicago area. Overall, highs are expected to top our near 80 in most areas, though slightly cooler temperatures are likely near the lake.
455 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low amplitude upper trough is crossing the eastern half of the CONUS with weak northwest flow aloft over the northern plains. Overall quieter weather is expected Wed-Thu as a weak cold front crosses the region. Upper ridging will be reinforced across the western CONUS by late in the week with stronger cyclonic flow developing across the northern plains.
139 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A cold front approaches from the northwest allowing for the possibility of a few showers this afternoon. Thereafter secondary sfc ridging expected to build south out of Canada across the lakes. Cooler and drier air will be working into the region behind a cold front this afternoon. This cold front will be able to force along a few showers. Thereafter, Tuesday will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds as high pressure approaches the region.
High pressure will dominate this period. Core of the high slides to our south on Tuesday with a light westerly flow noted. Mid level ridging and the dry airmass prevails with some bump in 925 temps.
Latest trends from the mesoscale guidance (although the models have generally struggled over the past several days) indicate some redevelopment likely this afternoon, especially across eastern/southern areas ahead of the approaching cold front. Latest model runs are having a little bit of trouble pointing how far S the weak cold front will travel heading into tonight.
320 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure will slide just south of the state later today before heading off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight.
Precip yesterday was very isolated, and with the upper ridge continuing to build, would expect very little if anything in the way of convection today. Highs today will reach the lower 90s, with heat index values barely cracking 100, if they even get there at all. Incrementally warmer on Thursday with more mid-90s likely to go on the board, but warmest heat index values appear to be 100-103 west of Interstate 65.
An upper low west of Vancouver Island will keep the upper level flow over the Pacific Northwest southwesterly through tonight. This low will work east towards Vancouver Island late today and tonight. Thus may see a few high based cumulus clouds over the higher terrain this afternoon. As the upper low approaches Vancouver Island tonight, elevated instability could increase, especially over eastern Washington.
Weather will remain fairly quiet as ridging builds in from the west today. Highs will be several degrees warmer today with upper 80s to low 90s and mainly clear skies. Ridging will build over the region for the remainder of the day into most of Thursday bringing dry conditions.
The upper level trough will push further south today. With high pressure at the surface convection will initialize along the sea breeze. PoPs will range from 30-50% with the highest chances across the panhandle and Big Bend.
This set the monthly record for warmest temperature ever recorded in July, and is tied for the highest temperature ever recorded in Key West, a record that still stands 137 years later.
Highs of 101 at DDC and 103 at HYS yesterday, and the low level thermodynamic profiles look essentially identical for today.
Sunny afternoon expected with warming temperatures as upper ridge builds over the state.
Dew points early this morning were in the lower to mid 70s across eastern Nebraska with that humid air expected to advect north through the morning. Cloud debris across the north may keep things a shade cooler, but with full sun across the south, the heat advisory is warranted.
By mid to late morning, surface based instability will begin development and the warm front will begin working north into the southern Red River valley. Many CAMs suggest this development will eventually collide with warm front forcing in the central valley, yielding thunderstorm activity strengthening into the strong to severe discrete cells and eventually a complex of storms moving southeast through the southern Red River valley in the afternoon.
High temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s will couple with dewpoints in the 60s-70s to produce heat index values in the low to mid 100s across the entire area.
Warmth (temperature about 5 degrees above average) and humidity (dewpoints in the upper 60s/70) can be expected again today as overall subsidence under ridging aloft is maintained between Mid Atlantic States and Great Lakes troughing.
Upper high centered over the region will continue to influence the area through the rest of the week with hot and dry conditions persisting.
A large area of high pressure stretching from the lower Rockies to the lower Mississippi River Valley will gradually slide eastward through the end of the week.
With this added cloud coverage the high temperatures have been lowered a degree or two especially over north central Missouri where the clouds will persist the longest. The highest heat index values will be north of the Missouri River and closer to the Nebraska border.
Slightly cooler conditions for the interior through Thursday, then return of seasonably hot weather for this weekend. Today and Thursday will feature slightly cooler temperatures over the interior, as an upper level trough off the coast of Vancouver Island continues to bring in slightly cooler airmass over NW California.
The forecast update will add a slight chance PoP to southern sections and the Smokies, and remove the low PoP in northern sections this afternoon.
Beginning this afternoon, the upper level ridge builds in and the heat is on through the end of the week.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge pushing back into Texas with southeasterly to easterly flow over the state. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the central Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the southeast. The subtropical ridge will dominate the pattern during this period. Under the upper ridge we will begin to see temperatures increase today and Thursday.
Mid/upper low across central NC moves southeast today with the trough axis moving across the eastern portion of Ne Fl. Short waves rounding base of upper trough will also enhance storms that develop along the seabreeze fronts this afternoon and move inland. Slightly drier and more stable air moves into inland Se Ga on back side of trough which helps decrease coverage and intensity of storms there.
A cut off upper low centered over eastern North Carolina drifts slowly southward to just off the South Carolina coast while an expansive upper ridge over the south central states builds a bit further eastward into the region. Deep layer moisture decreases somewhat through the period due to subsidence associated with the upper ridge, with precipitable water values of 1. Highs will be mostly in the lower 90s except for upper 80s at the coast, resulting in heat indices of 100-105. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast.
Any chance of a shower would be confined to the higher peaks in Baker county but that remains a low probability. Few cumulus over the higher terrain 19/20Z to 20/02Z.
Moving into a warmer overall pattern with weak flow/ridging at the surface and an upper ridge building in from the west. We will remain humid in the low levels with high dew points in the lower to middle 70s for the most part.
A weak disturbance will move across the area on Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and cooler conditions. Temperatures will again warm into the upper 80s during the weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the region.
Strong high pressure in place across the Ohio Valley will keep warm and humid air in place across Indiana the next several days.
No doubt intense heat remains the greatest subject for the rest of the work-week as strong & massive upper-deck high pressure remains sprawled across the central & southern thirds of the CONUS. These two characters (more so the 2nd) would push a weak cold front SE into KS Sat night & Sun.
1012 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Deep layer weak east-to-west trough was still located over the coastal areas at mid morning. The upper level ridge has drifted southward a bit as compared to yesterday and the PW field has drifted southward in response. Liked how the high resolution models keep the best chances along and off the coast this morning with isolated to scattered coverage mainly from the central areas southeastward this afternoon.
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to expand eastward into the Ozarks region today allowing the heat to build. The hot spell will keep going through late week into the weekend with an upper ridge entrenched across the region. Afternoon heat index values will generally range from near 100 to around 105 each afternoon with the highest readings from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri.
Expecting temperatures today to be near or just a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, generally near seasonal averages.
Otherwise mid clouds are drifting n from the Lower Trans Pecos. /issued 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ Looking like a carbon copy of yesterday as the upper ridge strengthens to our north and moisture remains entrenched across the higher terrain. Temperatures will stay near normal today in our area, but you don't have to go too far north to see triple digits closer to the center of the upper high. The upper ridge shifts slightly to the east late in the week allowing a mid level disturbance to move west across TX.
1223 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Weak high pressure will prevail across the region into this morning. A weak cold front will cross Maine tonight.
Watervapor satellite shows a weak trough moving across western Missouri and northeast Kansas. Tonight temperatures will drop back down into the mid and upper 70s as the lower boundary layer remains mixed through the night.
907 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Broad deep layer ridging over the Atlantic will reach across much of the Gulf of Mexico today. This will provide a prevailing light flow in the lower levels and abundant moisture. Relaxed high pressure ridges across the waters from the Atlantic today with light winds and seas.
Most of the area received rain (cooler ground) in the last 24 hour.
The upper air pattern is remaining stable with a strong upper ridge dominating the weather picture across the southern half of the country. The mountains and plains are getting strong solar heating this morning, so I expect clouds and showers to begin developing over the high country in the next couple hours, with scattered thunderstorms through the early afternoon. West- southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level high over Oklahoma. Precipitable water values may increase a little today, around an inch across the lower elevations. Best chance for storms will be over the higher terrain where scattered thunderstorms are expected.
Hot and humid summer wx will continue under high pressure.
As of 1545z, a 597dam ridge was analyzed over the Central Plains with a trough and closed mid/upper-level low over the Carolinas. Between these two features the CWA remains under the influence of the building ridge to our west beneath E/NE flow aloft. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Mid and upper level ridge axis will continue to slowly nudge southeast over the forecast area from a center over the Central Plains. Elsewhere though, more substantial soil moisture from recent rains and better evapotranspiration from the prevalent green vegetation should keep dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
533 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Current surface map places high pressure across Minnesota. Stationary front located across northern Nebraska into Wyoming with area of low pressure along the front in southern Montana. As surface sets up near Black Hills this afternoon, thunderstorms expected to develop around the Hills and expand eastward along the warm front. Moisture pooling along the warm front will provide plenty of instability, with MLCAPE of 3000+ J/KG from the Black Hills into central South Dakota.
Main story will be later today and through the afternoon/evening hours as warm front lifts into the region. Highs across the northern/northeast CWA are very tricky today and will be largely affected by the position of the warm front this afternoon. Any cold pool outflow from convection across southern ND this afternoon could also keep temps across northern SD cooler than forecast.
Compared to yesterday, KBMX upper air sounding has warmer temperatures aloft this morning with the 500mb temp around -5 Celsius. The northerly flow is being enhanced by an upper low over the coastal Carolinas. Satellite imagery shows an upper level short wave trof along the Illinois/Indiana state line. The models maintain this short wave trof as it tracks southward around the eastern edge of the upper ridge. With the approach of the short wave trof from the north, added isolated thunderstorms for all of north central Alabama for the afternoon. Moving into a warmer overall pattern with weak flow/ridging at the surface and an upper ridge building in from the west. We will remain humid in the low levels with high dew points in the lower to middle 70s for the most part.
/Issued 405 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ The rest of the work week looks hot and dry as high pressure aloft settles over the southern Plains. This area of high pressure is much better defined in the latest water vapor imagery with broad anti-cyclonic flow noted. Weak downslope winds will also help boost temperatures a bit, so went a few degrees above guidance as it has not handled the high temperatures well as of late. Also nudged towards the warmer guidance for overnight lows as a moderate low level jet should help prevent maximum decoupling.
A couple of counties only show a max of 104, but will include them in an SPS as well as temps could be a degree or two warmer than anticipated.
Today through Thursday Water vapor shows broad upper antiocyclone over the central and southern Plains with a swath of dry air across north Louisiana and north Texas. HRRR shows PWATs trending lower today but they are maximized over the lower Acadiana region along seabreeze.
Strong ridge of high pressure will continue to limit convection across the Tennessee Valley. Surface ridging will keep winds light through the period.
At the surface, broad Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge weakly across the Florida Peninsula, with light and rather variable surface flow continuing.
In the wake of the cold front, temperatures this afternoon have been struggling to reach the mid 30s under a northerly flow. Latest LAPS mesoanalysis and obs shows a surface anti-cyclone trying to develop across the northeast CWA as it will move southeast into western Oklahoma later tonight. Light winds will eventually shift to southeasterly after midnight and then southerly-southwesterly by Christmas morning as a warm front will try and work its way back to the east.
A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and evening, bringing moderate north to northeast winds.
1217 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 Aviation Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley will bring snow to Lower Michigan today, then arctic air will bring cold temperatures and lake effect snow showers through much of this week.
Canadian high pressure will build in behind the departing system tonight into Christmas Day.
Persistent northwest flow aloft will continue to bring cool/cold high pressure areas into the southern Plains through the period. Temperatures aloft will generally be above freezing, but at the surface, anywhere that temperatures remain below freezing during rain/drizzle events will be subject to freezing precipitation.
For this morning, freezing drizzle and fog is ongoing across central Oklahoma. Expect the drizzle to end by 8 AM as drier air advects from the north behind a cold front. Slightly warmer weather is expected on Monday with a return to southerly winds.
131 PM PST Sun Dec 24 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure and light offshore breezes will linger into Christmas Day.
Upper level analysis continues to show low pressure over southern Hudson Bay, with broad trough covering much of Canada and the US.
Cold front is located east of Tallahassee to near Valdosta attm. A thin line of light to moderate showers will continue to move across the eastern half of the area today along a cold front.
Winds will be southwest to west around 10 knots through this afternoon, shifting mostly north at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts through Mon morning in the wake of a cold front moving across the area this evening.
Short waves will rotate south and east through a large upper level low over central Canada and the Northern Plains. Cold front over the area has stalled or slowed significantly over the southern Red River Valley.
1200 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 For the ArkLaTex, a cold front is on the move into the heart of the area with MVFR cigs slowly lifting this afternoon.
Greatest chances for snow will be over our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, and along and near the location of our Arctic Cold front over our central counties.
A strong cold front is pushing southward across the area with temperatures dropping to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the Hill Country in its wake. A cold and dry airmass will continue to push from the north into our area tonight with lows temperatures expected to reach the freezing mark across the Hill Country and the escarpment. Monday's high temperatures will come back to the lower and mid 50s after a freezing morning for much locations.
226 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 A broad upper trough will reside over the CONUS for most of the upcoming week. This setup will result in periodic cold fronts moving south through the area and mainly dry weather. A cold front is currently moving south though the Trans Pecos of West Texas early this afternoon, leaving temperatures 20-25 degrees colder in it's wake compared with yesterday.
In its wake, lingering low stratus in developing northwest cold advective flow is resulting in a few passing flurries across the KC Metro and points east, however arriving high pressure from the northwest should halt such activity in the next few hours. As high pressure builds in tonight, attention quickly shifts to overnight low temperatures as fresh snow cover, light winds, and mostly clear skies set the stage for optimal radiational cooling.
An area of high pressure stretched across south Florida and the Keys from the Western Atlantic will shift eastward tonight through Christmas while a front weakens and sags very close to the local area. The broad mid to upper level trough across the eastern US will become less amplified through the middle of the week, leaving us with a relatively deep easterly flow under a dry and nearly zonal flow in the mid to upper levels.
Broad upper level trough and associated sfc reflection weak low will move east of the area tonight. Meanwhile, very cold air behind the cold front will likely transition the pcpn from light rain to light snow. Abundant low level moisture will allow for higher snow accumulations over the highest peaks of our northeast mountains. Generally, expect a coating of snow over the lowlands ranging up to 5 inches at the highest peaks by 14Z Monday. The 850mb thermal trough looks to pass around noon which should herald the end of any flakes flying.
Clouds will be on the increase today as an arctic cold front approaches from the north with a low pressure system passing to the south.
Confidence in the low temperatures tonight is rather poor given the new variables of fresh snow cover and clouds moving in, but it will be cold, just not sure how cold. Will be keeping high temperatures below freezing all areas the next 7 days.
The fog has lifted across the area, and some high clouds are moving into the north portions of the CWA ahead of tomorrows cold front. /issued 314 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017/ Synopsis and near term (early this morning): The synoptic pattern this morning is characterized by a low amplitude longwave trough in the middle and upper atmosphere over the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extends from off the New England Coast to the North Carolina Outer Banks, across Georgia and into the central Gulf. Short Term (today through Christmas Day): After patchy morning fog dissipates, should be another very nice day with high pressure and a dry air mass remaining in place. Highs will be a bit cooler Monday over the Lake Okeechobee region behind the weakening front.
A weak ridge of high pressure at the surface will build eastward today and tonight, then a cold front should sink southward through the area Monday.
For north-central Montana, high pressure will bring very cold air tonight to the region. This is mainly due to a stronger high pressure to our north pushing a deeper cold air mass well into southwest Montana.
The warm front associated with the next Pacific system is now moving into the Pacific Northwest. May be some mix of freezing rain or sleet in portions of Deschutes county, but this appears to be increasingly limited. Models have been consistent in the large scale pattern of an offshore ridge (though strength varies) but very inconsistent in details of disturbances moving through the northwesterly flow.
Late this evening into the overnight, we should see some breaks in the lower clouds, then an increase in high clouds late tonight into tomorrow.
The warm front is moving into the area and light snow has begun in southeast Oregon.
409 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 Short Term (Tonight-Christmas Day): Patchy early morning fog will be likely on Christmas morning, mainly across interior and western areas as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will slowly pass through South Florida on Christmas Day, weakening as it does so. The weather is expected to remain quite pleasant tonight through Christmas Day, with mostly dry conditions and temperatures slightly warmer than normal.
The dry cold front has pushed south through KROW and winds will generally be diminishing through the afternoon at most TAF locations. Winds over the eastern TAF locations will become southerly in the 03-06Z time frame as high pressure over Texas moves southward. A cold front moving south across eastern New Mexico will lower high temperatures into the 30s and 40s today. Much warmer temperatures are in store for Christmas Day with readings 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the entire area. A couple snow showers are possible over the high terrain near the Colorado border.