Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
538 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 /00Z TAFS/ A cold front will move through the area this evening resulting in north winds of 5 to 10 knots. /issued 337 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) The next weak cold front to affect the area is currently moving south across northwest Texas and will enter the northern Big Country around 4 PM. The front washes out on Wednesday, with winds quickly returning to the south as a lee trough develops ahead of the next upper level disturbance moving across the Rockies. Lows to99/99night will range from upper 20s to near 30 across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 30s elsewhere. Skies will be partly cloudy on Wednesday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 50s north, to the lower and middles 60s south.
1014 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FAST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WHAT I/M SAYING IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW FREEZING SPOTS WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL. TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING OR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
WILL START THE (LAW TAF) WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW. SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE FREEZING LINE MEANDERING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AGAIN. THIS MEANS THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE.
The 00 UTC KSGF RAOB indicates a perfect profile for continued freezing drizzle. The low level profile is saturated with a strong inversion while a dry layer exists from 7-16 kft. Over the next few hours, freezing drizzle will remain the primary precipitation type. Temperatures Wednesday will rise above freezing for all but central Missouri, which should allow any remaining snow/ice covered roads to improve during the day.
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET OVER SRN MO. 00Z OHX SOUNDING REVEALED 850 MB TEMPS THAT WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MODELS. PORTIONS OF NRN AR AND SRN MO SHOW FRZ RA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS WARMER AIR MAY VERY WELL MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 12Z. I WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. THAT SOUTHWEST AREA IS A CONCERN AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD FALL. SFC TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY 9AM. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD BUT FROM WHAT I'VE SEEN IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ABOUT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A MORE QUIET DAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
High pressure ridge axis losing ground to approaching upper level disturbance this evening.
/ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A MORE POTENT WAVE IN VERY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL RACE FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE SIDED WITH WARMER AND BREEZIER SOLUTIONS IN THIS PATTERN RATHER THAN BLENDING AND THUS PERHAPS UNDER FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS BY 10+ MPH AND TEMPERATURES AS WELL BY 5-8 DEGREES.
1020 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR TONIGHT AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF VISIT FROM HIGH PRESSURE.
THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE AN EXPANSIVE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND GULF STREAM.
954 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARMER THERE. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY MIGRATE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND OFFSHORE WATERS ARE ELEVATED WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN CENTRAL OREGON AT 00Z WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL IDAHO BY 12Z. SHOWERY PCPN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COME IN AS PCPN IS ENDING AND MAY CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. AS OF 02Z ALL REPORTING SITES IN OUR CWA HAD WINDS FROM THE EAST OR SOUTH INDICATING THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD NOT YET COME THROUGH. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COLD FRONT THROUGH BOISE AROUND 07Z /MIDNIGHT MST/ AND THE MAGIC VALLEY ABOUT 10Z /3 AM MST/. AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 36 34 45 / 20 80 40 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 19 34 30 43 / 20 90 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 19 33 29 44 / 20 90 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 14 33 27 45 / 10 90 50 30 NC.
938 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW IT.
703 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SHRTWV TROF ADVECTING THROUGH NW FLOW LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS THE IOWA AND N MO THIS AFTERNOON. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PLUMES SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR 3+ INCHES WILL BE ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH/JET DYNAMICS AND ISENSTROPIC LIFT WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE QUICK SYSTEM. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 36 34 45 / 20 80 40 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 19 34 30 43 / 20 90 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 19 33 29 44 / 20 90 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 14 33 27 45 / 10 90 50 30 NC.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST.
WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS AHEAD OF EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN OK, BUT EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AS IT MOVES INTO OK. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT FOR TUE. THIS TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD FROPA.
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ THIS MORNING WAS A TAD WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW THAT COOLED INTO THE MID 30S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER AT THIS TIME.
452 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
The easterly winds that pushed through western Montana this morning will be decreasing throughout the evening today as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR LUB THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AS THE MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW STARTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY.
332 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 THE COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS NOW OBSERVED AT RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE SLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
THE LOW MOVES FROM ARIZONA ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE WRAPPED CIRCULATION WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SAN JUAN/S AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THOUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW OFF AND ON. AIRMASS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AS THESE SYSTEMS DRIFT EAST THROUGH MONDAY EAST A COLD FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE TO START THE PERIOD AS A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SWING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL SET UP A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MORNING INTO THE 15 TO 20 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PLATEAU COUNTIES PER CURRENT TEMPS AND EXPECTED SHORT TERM TEMP TRENDS AS CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT SCT RAINFALL POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LASTING THRU 10/21Z.
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO THE STORM CHANCES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW BEFORE VEERING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES N OF THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY BUT STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING UNTIL MIDDAY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE REGIME AROUND THIS LOW WAS ATYPICAL. COOLER IN THE 40S AHEAD OF IT. WARMER IN THE 50S AND 60S BEHIND IT. SCT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW- LEVEL/SFC NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. SURFACE RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE.
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ Earlier update reflected removing pops for the morning period as elevated activity along the nose of the low level jet has moved east/subsided.
The flow around the high will allow for an increase in low level moisture from east to west starting tonight.
HAVE FAVORED THE MIDNIGHT-6 AM WINDOW WITH THE HIGHER POPS. ) THE MODELS PROG THE CAP TO CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT A POTENT LOW ACROSS THE TX CAPROCK/OKLAHOMA MID DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGH SIERRA. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER SE CA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING OVER CENTRAL CA.
400 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING NNE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS IT REACHES AREAS CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALREADY BEING APPROACHED. WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW BEFORE VEERING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES N OF THE REGION.
1105 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. W/NW FLOW SITS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A TROUGH SITS ACROSS SCNTRL CNDA. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS MT/WY BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS NE WY MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S.
1110 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. W/NW FLOW SITS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A TROUGH SITS ACROSS SCNTRL CNDA. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS MT/WY BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS NE WY MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S.
457 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
All of the activity will initially be located ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, however there will be a tendency overnight to see precipitation back into the cool air to the north of the southward moving front, and this will be in response to increasing large scale ascent associated with a southern stream short wave currently in west TX. This forecast is weighted towards the more progressive ECMWF, GEM, and SREF solutions which suggest the amplifying northern stream trof will keep the front and lift/LLJ progressing steadily southeastward and having precipitation shutting down Monday afternoon and early evening. High pressure then builds into the area Monday night and northwest flow aloft helps shunt clouds to the southeast out of the region.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE, WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE N AND NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
305 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 Current surface analysis depicts cold front stretching from eastern KS into the OK panhandle. Also anticipating an increase in convection along the front across southern KS this evening as the low-level jet strengthens and backs. Another weaker upper low will move through the area by mid- week. although prevailing surface ridging should keep the bulk of the better moisture south of the forecast area. A deep west coast trof will develop going into the weekend.
304 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS WARMER TODAY AND INTO THE MID 60S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BY LATE MONDAY. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
A cold front currently stretches through northeast Kansas into far northwest Missouri. Expect these warmer temperatures to continue advecting northeastward into the southwest portion of the forecast area during the remainder of the afternoon. As the cold front sags south, forcing along the boundary and an eroding cap should allow for thunderstorms to develop between 4-6pm across far southwestern sections of the CWA. The corridor from Mound City KS to Sedalia MO will have the highest severe weather potential late this afternoon and evening. The effective cold front will continue its progression south of the CWA during the mid/late evening hours, with post-frontal thunderstorms remaining possible generally south of Interstate 70 overnight.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES AFTER 00Z. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND 60. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT, WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS WEST OF I-135. RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE DUE TO COOLER TEMPS.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY PROGS ARE CONSISTENT THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. WE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ABSAROKA AND BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE STUCK UNDER THE RIDGE.
WARMER AIR IS COMING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA ARE STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS NOT YET TURNED TO THE SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TOWARD THE REGION.
230 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES BUT MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR LOWER BETWEEN 09Z TO 15Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP COMING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS TX PNHDL MONDAY.
156 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROF MOVG THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS SHOULD BE EXITING OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING, HWVR, SRN STREAM SHRTWV EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE FROM THE SRN PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY CAUSING FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME STNRY OVER THE GRTLKS TUE-SAT AS A STRONG SHRTWV DIGS INTO THE SWRN CONUS EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF AND BUILDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE MS VALLEY/UPR GRTLKS.
THEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES/FREEZE HEADLINES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD H5 TROUGH CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AT H85 WE WERE IN THE THERMAL RIDGE WITH THE +15 DEG C WARM AIR EXTENDING FROM KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE H85 FRONT. WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MISSOURI. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 71 58 65 / 10 20 90 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 73 53 61 / 10 10 90 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 45 73 52 61 / 10 10 90 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 74 50 58 / 10 10 80 80.
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR ALL EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
As a slow moving cold front moves toward our area overnight, a broad swath of pre-frontal showers and a few thunderstorms will make its way into our far northwest counties. Precipitation chances will end Monday night from northwest to southeast as the cold front passes through, and a cool, dry air mass settles in.
1100 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016 UPDATED W/W/A AND BEACHES SECTION FOR EXPIRATION OF BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY.
A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.
Have the highest pops in the southern zones. Otherwise lows tonight will be a little cooler and in the 50s. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be drawn northward ahead of the next upper level trough. Cold front will continue to sink south.
201 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016 Low pressure over southern California and Nevada today.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE E COAST MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE AFTN BUT VFR CIGS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
Strong high pressure along with offshore flow will result in very mild temperatures across the region the next several days.
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME WIND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY.
747 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
207 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER OREGON/NRN NEVADA ON MONDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TUE-WED. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY RIDGE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUE-WED ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE.
A prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s. The high amplitude northwest upper level flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on.
CONTINUE WITH RAIN AT TYS AND CHA MOVING IN DURING THE DAY AND SNOW AT TRI DUE TO TEMPERATURES THERE NEAR FREEZING AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER AT TYS AND CHA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOSES INTO THE WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WE THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN ND WITH THIS UPDATE. WE SEE NO REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED ON TRENDS THOUGH. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
615 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET. STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.