Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Just a few showers remain across the eastern CWA this afternoon, as a cold front continues its progress across the region. Highs on Sunday will be around 80 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid 50s north and west of Springfield; values will then increase into the low 60s closer to the southeastern corner of the forecast area. By Monday, another trough will be digging through the Rockies, with an upper level low expected to close off over southern Colorado by Monday evening.
A positively tilted upper trough extending from S CEN Canada to UT will develop Sun into Mon. There is significant difference in the models regarding the strength of this low with the 12Z NAM being most agressive. The positively tilted nature of the trough will help drive a strong front south ahead of the upr low early Mon. Cool temps in the 30s are expected Monday night as the low tracks east near nrn zones generating a chc for light precip. Forecast soundings (esp in 12Z NAM) still show a chance for some light snow or a mix at some point mainly across the far NW but this will be very dependent on the track and strength of the low.
A disturbance rotating through the base of the upper level trough will continue to bring rain and higher elevation snow through western Montana and central Idaho this morning. High pressure will begin to build into the region tonight, lasting through the day Monday.
An approaching Pacific trough and associated cold front will drop down into the northern Great Basin Sunday afternoon, increasing southwesterly flow over our forecast area. This will result in dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front with the lowest relative humidities and gustiest winds expected in the Four Corners region. The cold front will begin to infiltrate our northern areas Sunday afternoon with scattered showers developing along and behind the boundary. As mentioned in the short term discussion, the progression of the Pacific trough and associated cold front will keep the threat for scattered to numerous rain and snow showers continuing through much of the day Monday.
Expect a dry, mild, and windy day as a cold front approaches Arizona. The cold front will push across the area on Monday delivering noticeably cooler temperatures.
431 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Another nice fall day is expected across the region today as temperatures climb into the lower 70s with generally light northeasterly winds. Expect a weak cold front to stall across our northwestern counties by late afternoon.
252 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A much drier airmass has overspread the area behind the departing low pressure system, setting the stage for very nice weather to finish up the weekend. Plenty of sunshine is expected today with 925 mb temps climbing up into the 17-20C range by this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Highs will be well above average in the 70s over most of the area, with 80 degrees possibly within reach in some of the typically warmer valley locations. Temperatures will be cooler in the wake of Sunday's cold frontal passage with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
520 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers through midday. A rich plume of subtropical moisture pooled along and ahead of a cold front crossing the region this morning will produce a several hour period of light to moderate showers. These showers are out ahead of a cold front. As far as the timing of the front, the worst restrictions will likely be between 08Z to 12Z in the NW, and 11Z-18Z in the SE as the cold front arrives and showers will be most- widespread.
A cold front will pass through the region tonight with the main impact being increasing cloudiness. Cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. These models are showing dew points dropping into the lower 20s.
Showers associated with an upper trough were starting to work into the northwest portion of the area, from Baker City to McCall. The showers will continue mainly across the higher terrain of SW Idaho this morning before tapering off this afternoon. The clouds and winds will decrease tonight as the upper trough moves east. This will allow for near- freezing temperatures in the Treasure Valley where a Frost Advisory is in effect. An upper ridge will build into the area on Monday for mostly clear skies and light winds.
Latest upper air analysis shows the long wave trough moving onto the Plains. Ahead of the trough light snow was continuing to move east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to warm air advection.
High pressure over the region begins to shift northeast today providing a gradual return of moisture although winds will still be light and the mid levels will be dry and stable.
633 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure over the region today will move east tonight.
306 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure builds from the southwest tonight before moving offshore on Wednesday.
However temperatures will be a bit warmer than the last few days, averaging near to above normal.
A Mid level disturbance along with a warm front will move through the region today and exit tonight. Temperatures this morning over SE Ohio are hovering around the freezing mark. Temperatures will quickly warm today with good WAA taking place as the disturbance and warm front moves northward.
These increasing winds will pull deeper moisture and warmer air northward into southern Wisconsin this morning and early afternoon. One concern is that critical thicknesses and a potential for evaporative cooling in the low levels may result in a light rain/snow mix in the northwest CWA as the precip intensity increases. The mix will transition to all light rain or drizzle as the low levels continue to warm through the evening. At this point only light/dusting accumulations are possible as surface temps wl be above freezing, but the Baraboo, Reedsburg, Portage and Oxford areas may some some flakes mixed with the rain for a time this evening with briefly reduced visibilities.
Otherwise, mild high pressure will extend across central North Carolina through the end of the week. A weak frontal zone will hold just north and west of the forecast area today, while a weak high pressure ridge centered off the Canadian Maritimes extends southwestward across the area. But dry/stable air in the lower levels and the lack of any other forcing mechanisms will allow for continued dry weather. Thicknesses will remain above normal, indicating warm highs in the low to mid 70s.
356 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 The latest surface map features high pressure centered across southern New England, with an inverted trough positioned from the Arklatex region up through the Tennessee Valley and into Kentucky. Aloft, broad troughing rules across the central CONUS. Forcing will relax into this afternoon as the inverted trough lifts north as a warm front, with POPs decreasing. Southerly winds will engage, allowing for temperatures to rebound into the mid 50s, to as warm as the lower 60s. A mild night will be on tap, with lows likely only cooling off a few degrees from the highs today, generally in the mid 50s. Thursday looks to be mainly dry, besides perhaps a few sprinkles in the morning, as the low level jet exits. Some partial clearing and building heights will allow for highs in the lower 70s.
Near term model guidance suggests that a wave of low pressure will gradually become more defined across southeastern TX overnight, beneath the entrance region of high-level speed max spreading across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Pattern change will take effect beginning Wednesday as the aforementioned upper-level trough will slowly move east into the Mississippi Valley. Subtropical ridge over the Caribbean will build SW into the Mexican Highlands late this week, helping to maintain the broad trough in place over much of the Central and Eastern United States.
Very little change has been made to tonight's forecast as high pressure and dry air remain entrenched over our area, leading to clear skies through tonight and tomorrow morning. Under ideal radiational cooling conditions, inland overnight lows will dip into the mid-upper 40s, except across parts of the FL Panhandle and downtown Tallahassee (urban heat island effect) where lows in the lower 50s are possible. Mean trof will be situated across the central US with downstream mid level SW flow across our area, surface ridging stretching through the southern Appalachians and a stalled front across ArkLaMiss. The front will dissipate Wednesday with the associated precipitation being carried eastward by the mid level trough.
So we are looking for falling temperatures in most areas today leading to a change over from rain to snow for the bulk of the lower elevations.
428 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 SE OK into W AR remain under the influence of approaching mid level trough and resultant lift will aid light precip across this region through the early morning hours.
These clouds were ahead of a weak upper low that was centered over southern California. Expect clouds to gradually decrease in coverage today as the upper low fills.
The air has moistened during the last 24 hours, with current dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60s. Gentle to moderate northeast breezes are blowing in most areas, along the southern flank of a continental polar high pressure cell. A deep layer mean anticyclone, currently centered over the Windward passage, gradually will shift westward during the next several days. Therefore, we expect little or no threat of thunderstorms, tropical systems, or cold fronts during the next seven days.
Looking ahead through the rest of the overnight: Although it may not feel like it yet thanks to steady south breezes putting quite a "bite" in the air, the stage is being set for a MUCH MILDER Wednesday as a warm front shifts eastward across the Central Plains over the next 12-18 hours.
Pockets of blowing dust are anticipated along I-15 and adjacent Highways today with the lowest visibility in the Roberts area north of I-15.
321 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Surface analysis shows an old front/low pressure trough across south central TN this morning. High pressure is moving off the SE coast of the US.
Otherwise, mild high pressure will extend across central North Carolina through the end of the week. A weak frontal zone will hold just north and west of the forecast area today, while a weak high pressure ridge centered off the Canadian Maritimes extends southwestward across the area. But dry/stable air in the lower levels and the lack of any other forcing mechanisms will allow for continued dry weather.
149 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Dry conditions will give way to precipitation moving into the region late tonight into Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward.
A Mid level disturbance along with a warm front will move through the region today and exit tonight. Temperatures this morning over SE Ohio are hovering around the freezing mark. Temperatures will quickly warm today with good WAA taking place as the disturbance and warm front moves northward. Southwest flow continues to stream warm, moist air into the region with 850 temps reaching into the low teens (C) by the end of the period.
350 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 (Today and Tonight) Expect much warmer temperatures and gusty winds this afternoon. Highs across West Central Texas will be in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be warmer too, with lows 55 to 60.
One amplified pattern continues, with central NOAM centered troughing bookended by Alaska and far West Atlantic ridge axes. Low pressure continues to move across northern Michigan Thursday into Thursday night.
Today Through Thursday Night Warm front was situated just to the SE of AR early this mrng. The aforementioned warm front wl sloly work NWD acrs the FA today, making the temp fcst quite challenging.
A storm system moving into the region will bring increasing wind, cooler temperatures and chances of valley rain and mountain snow over the weekend.
/Issued 720 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017/ Just some passing high clouds across the forecast area this afternoon as high pressure remains over South GA and stalled dry front resides just north of the area.
315 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain is expected today and tonight with a warm front.
Increasing clouds and a little cooler in the north as a cold front with light rain and snow move approach that area from the north this afternoon. Mostly sunny, windy, and warmer in the south. Thursday also should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today in all areas, and not as windy in the south as today.
Expect a steady cold rain for the rest of the day with temps on the rise as a warm front lifts north through the region. In the warmer airmass, highs will rebound into the upper 60s/lower 70s.
301 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain chances will continue today under the influence of a low amplitude, broad mid lvl trof and weak overrunning.
311 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Warmer temperatures are expected through the forecast period as the upper jet lifts northward, thus even when a few cold frontal passages occur, the colder air behind them will not be nearly as potent as fronts over the last week. Temperatures today will reach the 50s to near 60 degrees as returning moisture/southerly flow and rising temperatures aloft battle extensive afternoon cloud cover; then, mixing along and just behind a cold front Thursday afternoon will allow temperatures to warm into the 60s, possibly even the 70s in southeastern portions of the CWA where fropa will occur after the warmest portion of the day.
338 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast through tonight. The flow aloft will be southwest associated with the broad troughing cover much of the nation. Expect low temperatures in the lower and middle 50s as given by the guidance consensus.
404 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 A few light returns across the area this morning but generally dry conditions with a weak wave rounding the base of a broad central CONUS trough. Best mid level forcing is mainly to the north and east as the upper trough moves across North Dakota. A inverted ridge moves down out of Canada for Thursday into Thursday night, so temperatures are back below average.
Upper level analysis places places trough cutting through the plains, with northwest flow to the west. Total accumulations will be quite light, with the highest amounts of around two inches near the Turtle Mountains. Weak ridging passes over the area on Thursday bringing a relatively quiet day before the upper level flow starts shifting towards the west-southwest opening the door for the next system to push into the area.
Start of a cooler and wetter pattern today as onshore winds bring marine clouds with some light drizzle this morning.
Isolated rain chances to continue through the rest of the week before ending over the weekend as ridging aloft becomes established.
Over the past few hours, temperatures have actually gradually risen across south central Oklahoma, likely associated with a weak surface thermal gradient, in the lower levels, not so much a warm front, but this temp gradient is visible via GOES-16 IR sat Channel 13, slowly building northward.
125 AM EDT Wed Nov 01 2017 A weak cold front will settle into North Carolina tonight. The front will retreat north of our region Wednesday, followed by warm high pressure extending across the eastern states through the end of the week. With high pressure in place, skies are expected to remain clear overnight. Lows generally in the lower to mid 40s expected.
353 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure over the region today will move east tonight.
Lows will drop into the low 30s in many locations this morning with afternoon highs recovering into the mid to upper 40s. Highs on Thursday should be much warmer into the low to mid 60s.
1148 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE Surface lee trough and strong northwest flow at mt top levels through 01/21Z with potential for mt waves over nrn NM.
313 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure near New York City early this morning. Low pressure over the Canadian Rockies has a trough extending down the lee side of the US Rockies into west Texas.
541 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain is expected today and tonight with a warm front.
634 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast through tonight. The flow aloft will be southwest associated with the broad troughing over much of the nation. Expect low temperatures in the lower and middle 50s as given by the guidance consensus.
The beginning of the overall pattern change to more wet and colder has officially begun with moisture in northwesterly flow aloft combining with a cold front from the east. Colder air is likely to fill in from the east as the cold front moves to the west today. This evening could become interesting in west- central Montana with cold air in place and the beginning of warm frontal precipitation.
Highs today will be in the mid 70s with lows tonight mainly in the lower 60s.
610 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast through tonight. The flow aloft will be southwest associated with the broad troughing over much of the nation. Expect low temperatures in the lower and middle 50s as given by the guidance consensus.
356 AM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast MT, with cold front extending south-southwest across eastern to southern MT. Webcams show some accumulation across the higher elevations, generally an inch or two from the Sundance area to the higher Black Hills. Any additional accumulations across the higher elevations should be on the light side, less than an inch. Cold front to the northwest will slide through during the morning and midday hours. High temps will range from the lower 40s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the mid to upper 50s over far southern SD. The highest amounts at this time look to be from the Wright and Newcastle areas to the southern Black Hills and higher elevations of Fall River Co.
Mountain wave amplification so far has been mostly confined to the higher portions of the Front Range as seen by radar and surface observations, likely indicative of the stability profile. Winds are expected to decrease rather quickly across the plains this evening as gradient weakens, and then a backdoor cold front pushes across the plains.
Light and variable winds overnight wl bcm S/SELY on Wed as warm front lifts sloly NWD acrs the FA. Today Through Wednesday Night Active northern stream continues with an upper trough translating across the Upper Midwest and largely zonal flow across the southern CONUS. Broad isentropic lift north of the front, compounded by the passing upper energy, will yield a broad area of precipitation with the highest PoPs across south and southeastern AR. South of the warm front, some destabilization is expected with precipitation becoming more convective in nature.
345 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast through tonight. The flow aloft will be southwest associated with the broad troughing cover much of the nation. Expect low temperatures in the lower and middle 50s as given by the guidance consensus.
With the clouds and winds, overnight low temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last night and current temperature forecast looks good.
A warm frontal boundary was draped from eastern KY to northeast MS.
642 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast through tonight. The flow aloft will be southwest associated with the broad troughing over much of the nation. Expect low temperatures in the lower and middle 50s as given by the guidance consensus.
Effectively this should end the current snowfall and as the mid level trough completely clears the area and dries the mid levels out, any lingering light snow should exit the area as well. Temps this afternoon have hovered around the freezing mark largely along and north of I-70 as expansive cloud cover has remained in place with the aid of web-bulb cooling. Meanwhile warmer temps have been reached in east central KS topping out in the upper 30s. The highest amount on record at Topeka Billard has been 4. Not concerned at this time for any freezing DZ in the morning as most guidance is in agreement that temps will be above freezing and also. Can't completely rule out some spotty light drizzle late Wednesday night into Thursday, though much warmer temps and dewpoints push in and keep any precip in liquid form.
/Issued 428 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017/ SE OK into W AR remain under the influence of approaching mid level trough and resultant lift will aid light precip across this region through the early morning hours.
322 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A strong southwest/westerly flow aloft will be over the region with the mid level trough axis shifting to the north and east overnight. Strongest winds this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will push across the cwa from the northwest this evening. The cold front is already moving through KCYS at this time so fropa at Denver will be much sooner, by 01z. A longwave trough will slowly shift east across western North American through the later part of the week.
High pressure will remain across our area this afternoon into tonight. A weak surface cold front to the northwest slowly edging east towards the mountains late tonight. The cap will weaken enough to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains. A rather quiet weather pattern with little change in the low level/upper level features.
314 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature across Vermont and northern New York during the next 5 to 7 days. The quiet weather conditions will continue through the near term with a fairly narrow but strong high pressure ridge anchored over the region. This ridge will keep the brunt of the effects from Jose southeast of the forecast area. Jose pulls away from the east coast and looks to have diminishing potential influence for the short term as the main weather driver as the large upper ridge shifting in from the west that will be in control.
329 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Midsummer-like conditions have returned to the area under strong warm and moist air advection in the lower levels. Cold front will progress through the area tonight and Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures.
Deep complicated upper low impacting East Idaho this week. Brief break occurs overnight with flow shifting to southwest aloft ahead of next feature rotating around upper low.
Rain chances will be lower on Wednesday compared to today as mid level ridging and slight drying develop across the region.
5 inches ahead of the front, surface convergence and upper level support are not to be found during the day; thus convective chances are not expected to ramp up until the evening hours Wednesday, with the highest threat of storms being late Wednesday night as the nocturnal jet kicks up. conditions will be dry and rather warm as we head into late September as a trough digs in across the West Coast, helping keep the prevailing flow across our part of the country from the southwest through the rest of the work week and weekend. Thus, it is likely that we will have to wait till early next work week for the western trough to start hedging east enough to force precipitation back into eastern Kansas and Missouri.
254 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A cold front will sink slowly southward for tonight into Wednesday across Kansas, with hot temperatures continuing for locations along and east of the frontal boundary Wednesday afternoon.