Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Added eastern Platte County to the warning since some of the highest gusts have been observed along Interstate 25 between Wheatland and Douglas, likely due to mountain wave activity. However, expect eastern Platte County winds to fluctuate through this period due to the low predictability of mountain wave related winds.
939 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Weak low pressure will bring a chance of rain southeast of I-71 toward sunrise Tuesday, before exiting out by noon.
752 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Another record warm day today with stacked ridging over the region continuing.
A series of upper level ridges and troughs will make their way through the region, with the troughs and associated surface features bringing shots of snow and reinforcing shots of cold.
The precipitation type should be mainly liquid rain, but could not rule out a brief period of light freezing rain/sleet in isolated areas. Warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday with more breaks in the cloud cover.
A warm front stretches from along the coast of Southeast Texas east across Vermilion Bay and into the New Orleans Metro. Tonight the warm front will gradually lift north with the fog in tandem. The warm front will continue to lift north through mid week and into North LA or Arkansas, however with continued moisture streaming across the area rounds of showers, perhaps a few storms, and cloudy skies can be expected.
Also added a mention of freezing drizzle behind the snow based on obs to the south. Behind the low there should also be some gustiness as pressure rises invade from the north. Behind the low, CAA takes over as a colder airmass dives into the CWA.
Will keep a mention of potential for drizzle/light rain/light freezing rain/snow/sleet into this evening, mainly in western IA and far eastern NE where some of the short range model guidance continues to show light precipitation developing. So areas that have surface temperatures that remain below freezing could have some icing. Slightly warmer air will continue to advance very slowly northward the next few hours. A ridge of high pressure should build in on Tuesday, with cold air across the northern half of the forecast area.
Initially light/variable winds will give way to southerly return flow Tue afternoon -- as the mslp/height gradient tightens on the eastern periphery of the lee cyclone. Expect mostly clear skies with highs ranging from the lower 40s (northeast) to ~50F south of I-70. Thu-Fri: A longwave trough progged to move ashore the Pacific coast on Thu will progress eastward across the Rockies (Thu night) and High Plains (Fri).
406 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Progressive flow will promote warm weather with occasional chances for rain early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation.
422 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 High pressure centered over the central Ohio Valley will transit off to the northeast as a baroclinic, warm frontal zone lifts northward overnight. A wave of low pressure tracking along this baroclinic zone will be responsible for an increase in clouds and the threat of rain by late tonight. Above normal temperatures in the 60s again tomorrow as a developing storm system over the plains brings a touch warmer air northward into our area via return southerly/southwesterly flow.
Caught up in the flow, a warm front was aligned near the I-65 corridor. A gradual northward displacement to the precipitation axis is expected through the night and into the day Tuesday where the higher rain chances look to set up along and north of US Hwy 84 as a mid level ridge of high pressure builds westward over the Gulf.
631 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Forecast update to allow the High Wind Warning to expire. Wind speeds at the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains have decreased below warning criteria and thus the High Wind Warning has expired as scheduled.
Perhaps a few inches could be possible under these bands and in the higher elevations. With mostly clear skies tonight the lows will be a few degrees cooler than this morning. This trough will generally pass over Montana and Wyoming, but the southern extent should clip the northern half of the forecast area. Snow will develop in the late afternoon and evening and favor the Elkhead and Park ranges where upwards of 6-8 inches could fall in the highest elevations.
A warm front situated to our immediate south continues to push moisture northward into Middle Tennessee, so look for showers and a few storms to spread deeper into the mid state throughout the evening and overnight. Temperatures won't drop much further, and will even begin to rise later on as the warm front inches closer.
This afternoon, high pressure is positioned over the Ohio River Valley with low pressure noted in the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. The above freezing temperatures have been chipping away at snow pack across eastern KS, which could be seen on visible satellite imagery where stratus had eroded over the eastern CWA. Models are showing a drying of the low levels tomorrow morning, which should finally allow for more widespread sunshine across the forecast area. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach the low 40s north to near 50 degrees in our southern counties.
443 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2020 Water vapor shows large upper trof over the western CONUS.
Moisture to our south will spread northward tonight ahead of a weak upper trough heading from the Midwest to the Great Lakes and behind a large upper ridge centered between Bermuda and Florida. Temperatures will moderate ahead of an approaching cold front to our west, however, cloudiness, time of year, and lack of strong low level WAA will temper the rise. Tuesday night begins with west-southwest almost zonal flow overhead and a weak cold front running west to east across Tennessee.
Very moist onshore flow was underway this afternoon on the heels of a warm front draped from near Kingsville to the Upper TX Coast. Dewpoints have already soared into the lower 70s in some locales which is fostering an ideal setup for dense sea fog near the shore where water temps remain in the low/mid 60s. Tonight, the warm front continues making slow headway northwest, but now appears more likely to slow, if not stall, across our NW zones by Tue morning as shown by much of the non-GFS guidance and high resolution models.
428 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Issued a winter weather advisory through the evening hours as freezing drizzle is causing slick conditions to quickly develop across the area. Based on reports, freezing drizzle appears to be confined to areas east of the James River. Forecast soundings suggest lift through the low lying saturated layer will continue through the evening hours ahead of the trough and wind shift. Cold front swings through overnight and will switch winds around to the west and northwest as well as scour out our fog and low stratus.
Fast west- southwest flow aloft will transition to westerly, as a 591dm 500mb height ridge center retrogrades to the Gulf of Mexico. For tonight, an elevated warm front will lift into north MS this evening.
Some breaks in the low clouds have finally formed over west KY. Will carry considerable cloudiness, as high pressure moves east.
A strong high pres ridge extends from Bermuda acrs the nrn GOMex, generating a deep lyr SErly breeze thru the H100-H70 lyr. The lower sfc dewpoints this evng as compared to last night should keep most "warm min" temp records safe, but readings as daybreak still will be arnd 15F abv avg. However, the dry/stable mid lvls will prevent any precip from evolving beyond the low-topped/light precip coastal shra variety with QPF blo 0.
Pattern should preclude the risk of any repeat fog development for the highway 183 corridor.
534 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Issued a winter weather advisory through the evening hours as freezing drizzle is causing slick conditions to quickly develop across the area. Based on reports, freezing drizzle appears to be confined to areas east of the James River. Forecast soundings suggest lift through the low lying saturated layer will continue through the evening hours ahead of the trough and wind shift. Cold front swings through overnight and will switch winds around to the west and northwest as well as scour out our fog and low stratus.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 70 60 72 / 90 100 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 68 56 70 / 90 90 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 51 67 54 69 / 80 90 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 66 50 67 / 80 80 50 60.
910 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Warm weather with occasional chances for rain are expected with crossing disturbances early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight as it slides east across the region.
Am expecting freezing drizzle to continue to spread eastward through this evening, with freezing fog following through around 09z. Road temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s- sub-freezing- so am expecting icy/slippery conditions to continue through tonight. Still expect warmer temps south. to above freezing.
600 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Warm weather with occasional chances for rain are expected with crossing disturbances early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight as it slides east across the region.
Cold front swings through overnight and will switch winds around to the west and northwest as well as scour out our fog and low stratus.
However, showers are expected to redevelop over the next couple of hours as a warm front begins to lift into the north Mississippi. Fast west- southwest flow aloft will transition to westerly, as a 591dm 500mb height ridge center retrogrades to the Gulf of Mexico. For tonight, an elevated warm front will lift into north MS this evening.
The region is covered in VLIFR weather as warm front is creeping inland and is nearing an LVJ to VCT line not that is makes much difference in the overall flight conditions. The warm front should continue to drift inland through the morning hours though may slow and stall closer to an 11R-UTS line before sunrise. some of the latest short models are indicating that the lower visibilities could persist well into the afternoon.
/issued 631 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020/ Forecast update to allow the High Wind Warning to expire. Wind speeds at the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains have decreased below warning criteria and thus the High Wind Warning has expired as scheduled.
252 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Unseasonably mild conditions expected with zonal flow and flat ridging over the southeast CONUS.
132 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Weak low pressure will bring a chance of rain southeast of I-71 toward sunrise Tuesday, before exiting out by noon.
Blended in the cooler HRRR temperatures and dewpoints with the existing grids through the overnight hours. Some breaks in the low clouds have finally formed over west KY. Will carry considerable cloudiness, as high pressure moves east.
148 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Weak low pressure will exit to the east overnight. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday.
A warm front had lifted north, and at 2 AM CST was located roughly along Interstate 40 with surface obs showing lower 60s south of the front and mainly upper 40s to mid 50s north of the front. So far, thunderstorms have been elevated in the enhanced lapse rate zone above the warm front, so strong winds depicted on radar have not translated to the ground.
241 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Warm weather with occasional chances for rain are expected with crossing disturbances early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation. Rain chances return today as a warm front lifts across the region.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 60 72 49 58 / 100 60 70 70 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 56 70 45 55 / 90 60 70 70 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 54 69 44 55 / 90 50 70 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 50 67 41 52 / 80 50 60 70 20.
Southwest surface winds expected to commence gusting to around 30 kt beginning around 18z Tuesday as lee trof deepens and moves slowly east into western parts of the forecast area.
1129 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Warm weather with occasional chances for rain are expected with crossing disturbances early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight as it slides east across the region.
1003 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 A sprawling subtropical ridge stretches southwest from near Bermuda to the western Gulf of Mexico.
A negative tilt trough was lifting northeast through Missouri and Iowa this morning, and will continue to shift into the western Great Lakes region by midday. Once the trough shifts into the Great Lakes later this morning upper heights level off into a more zonal flow pattern aloft, with some H85 height rises seen over eastern Tennessee and north into Kentucky.
There does not appear to be enough snow coming for the lower elevations to warrant an advisory there, but untreated roads will likely become slick this evening.
1020 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2020 Water vapor shows large upper trof over the western CONUS.
450 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 For today, a sfc trof of low pressure will persist across eastern CO and eastern NM. A cold front is forecast to move across the region on Wednesday, with the brunt of the cold air slated to remain northeast of the forecast area.
An upper low remains over central Alberta, with west to west-southwest flow pushing weak disturbances across Montana.
Highs today will reach into the lower to middle 40s.
There could be some areas in far northeastern Kansas that see light drizzle for a period of time, and perhaps some freezing drizzle but confidence in that is also presently low as overall lift appears weak.
Dry conditions with warmer than normal temperatures through Wednesday.
430 AM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Current surface map shows arctic front backed into eastern Wyoming with high pressure slipping into the Dakotas. Area of low pressure develops across eastern Wyoming this afternoon, with warm front lifting into southwest South Dakota.
Late tomorrow morning a weak cold front will drop through the FA knocking high temperatures down 10 degrees from today.
500 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Under partly cloudy skies and light east winds of 10 to occasionally 15 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the island chain. A hefty and extensive area of high pressure will congeal over the Florida Peninsula and the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters over the next several days. Beyond that, despite a subtle increase in moisture, the nearby deep anticyclone will govern our sensible weather elements. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above normal through tonight, before some cooler and drier air filters in beginning Wednesday. A strong and expansive continental region of high pressure spreading from eastern Canada, equatorward through the Southeast United States, and down the Sunshine State will move swiftly southeastward and weaken through the weekend.
546 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 For the 12Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will persist across eastern CO and eastern NM today. A cold front is then forecast to move across KGUY and KDHT late in this fcst cycle. /Issued 450 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020/ For today, a sfc trof of low pressure will persist across eastern CO and eastern NM. A cold front is forecast to move across the region on Wednesday, with the brunt of the cold air slated to remain northeast of the forecast area.
BUFKIT soundings show the depth of the low level moisture ranging from around 900 mb across southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa to 850 mb in north-central Wisconsin. With no ice in the sounding, we will likely see some freezing drizzle continuing through 9 AM. Soundings show that the low level moisture will be gradually moisten. The highest snow totals will be north of Interstate 90 in Wisconsin.
A quick 2 to 5 inches is expected with some of the higher elevations seeing 5 to 7 inches maybe a bit more in a few spots. By morning, everything will be just about over as ridging builds in and upper level winds become southerly. Expect some high clouds thanks to the jet stream and high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than seen Tuesday.
First of which will be the Highway 2 corridor from Marias Pass to Columbia Falls, and Highway 206 from Columbia Falls to Creston, which will continue to experience gusty northeast winds this morning. Skies are expected to partially clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The Mission, Missoula, and Flathead valleys should have overnight lows in the low to mid teens. Wednesday will be a pretty nice day, with more sunshine out there under the ridge. However, temps will be a bit cooler with highs in the 20s.
442 AM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Very cold arctic air will linger across the region through midweek with high pressure over the northern plains. Warmer air will be slowly drawn northward but will take some time to overcome the cold air pooled over northeast Montana.
525 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Warm weather with occasional chances for rain are expected with crossing disturbances early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation. Rain chances return today as a warm front lifts across the region. High pressure will keep conditions dry tonight before another weak front crosses on Wednesday.
High temperatures will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s. with slightly warmer readings near 50 degrees south of I-70. With increasing amounts of sunshine as the day goes on, afternoon highs will top out in the lower to middle 40s. with warmer readings near 50 degrees across the far SE KILX CWA. With temps at or slightly below freezing, a brief period of very light freezing rain will be possible along/north of I-74 before readings climb above freezing by dawn.
Currently forecasting highs ranging from the mid 50s NW to the mid 60 SE as a cold front will sweep through.
232 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2020 A weakening cold front will push through the region today. Near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
325 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 Fog will continue through this morning across much of the area, with the lowest visby expected on the western fringe of the stratus over portions of western and southwestern OK, and adjacent parts of north TX. Expect fog to also redevelop, some dense, ahead of an approaching cold front tonight into the early morning hours of Wed along and east of I-44 again on the edge of stratus and drizzle to the southeast.
Persistent east-west surface ridging will lie between north-central/central FL today-tonight. Else, high pressure ridging invof area with summer- like pattern in place as the ECSB will develop and move inland this afternoon.
/issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020/ Fog will continue through this morning across much of the area, with the lowest visby expected on the western fringe of the stratus over portions of western and southwestern OK, and adjacent parts of north TX. Expect fog to also redevelop, some dense, ahead of an approaching cold front tonight into the early morning hours of Wed along and east of I-44 again on the edge of stratus and drizzle to the southeast.
321 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 One short wave trough exiting the area early this morning with another more significant one for tonight. Mid and high level clouds will be spreading in through today in advance of the next short wave trough. The models were showing good low and mid level waa along with upper divergence with tonight's short wave trough along with qpf mainly across the northern cwa.
The easterly flow would also prevent the area from pulling in warmer temps from the south so opted to go with cooler highs than previously forecast, especially given another day of lagging status/fog across the area.
The surface reflection of the wave will skip across the Upper Midwest into southern Ontario by 00Z this evening, pushing a cold front through Iowa into northern Missouri and central Illinois where it will stall. The low should develop and move along the stalled baroclinic zone and pushing the cold front southeast through our forecast area. With that said, temperatures today through Wednesday should stay above freezing, so no frozen/freezing precipitation is expected. The wave that moves across the Midwest on Wednesday will continue eastward and amplify into a deep trough off the East Coast.
A warm front had lifted north, and at 2 AM CST was located roughly along Interstate 40 with surface obs showing lower 60s south of the front and mainly upper 40s to mid 50s north of the front. So far, thunderstorms have been elevated in the enhanced lapse rate zone above the warm front, so strong winds depicted on radar have not translated to the ground. Scattered showers and storms will increase in coverage on Wednesday as Middle Tn gets fully into warm sector air ahead of an approaching cold front.
248 AM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Current surface map shows arctic front backed into eastern Wyoming with high pressure slipping into the Dakotas. Area of low pressure develops across eastern Wyoming this afternoon, with warm front lifting into southwest South Dakota.
High pressure at the surface and mid level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will support above normal temperatures through the period.
234 AM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Zonal flow today will be replaced by an upper ridge on Wednesday. Surface pattern is rather messy, with a weakening trough just east of the area, with low clouds and fog ahead of it, and a cold front in western Nebraska. As mentioned, for Wednesday will see rising heights as upper ridge builds over the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front with highs in the middle to upper 40s.
703 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Warm weather with occasional chances for rain are expected with crossing disturbances early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation.
Unseasonably mild conditions expected with zonal flow and flat ridging over the southeast CONUS. By Wednesday morning, scattered light rain showers will likely be moving in from the southwest into central Kentucky ahead of a cold front. The cold front will push through during the mid to late afternoon, and forcing along and just ahead of the front may generate additional precipitation. A colder, more seasonable airmass will then ooze in from the northwest behind the cold front Wednesday night.
WYDOT observations have indicated a general increase in winds over the last couple of hours, with the Arlington and Halleck Ridge sensors reporting wind gusts of 45-55 MPH as of 09-10z. A quick shot of 3-6 inches indeed appears likely, but given the progressive pattern it will be quite hard to get over 6 inches of snow outside of the high peaks. This will be heavily dependent on southern and western extent of the surface cold front, which will influence gradients & wind profiles.
Mild temps remain fcst today w/ expectation that the low cloudiness erodes sufficiently by afternoon. Low level moisture currently plentiful across north TX will stream northward overnight in advance of the next cold front. Scattered showers are possible across SE OK tonight and low chances of showers and storms will exist Wed from SE OK through western AR as the cold front passes.
The CWA currently remains in strong southwesterly flow aloft due to place between upper ridging to the southeast and upper trough to the northwest.
254 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2020 Low pressure along the West Coast and onshore flow will maintain cool but dry weather through Wednesday.
Isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible in the high country mainly this afternoon. In spite of that, a few gusts around 60 mph will still be possible in the evening along exposed eastern slopes and in the higher foothills. A cold front will move across with gusty west/northwest winds 15-25 mph developing from 03z to 09z, then decreasing through 12z.