Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
407 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 The short term remains quiet across the cwa as the models show upper level high pressure ridging building over our region today and to our east on Tuesday. The upper level high pressure ridge then closes off over the Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain quiet conditions through midweek as it is projected to be set up from the western Great Lakes westward across our area. An upper trough is progged to push into the Pacific Northwest by midweek. The aforementioned trough is expected to slide out into the northern High Plains and central Rockies toward the end of the week.
329 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Upper ridge expands across Colorado today, then begins to drift slowly eastward tonight. Low and mid levels will continue to dry today, and expect only some shallow convective cloudiness over the higher mountain peaks in the afternoon. Generally clear and cool overnight, and a few high mountain valleys could again drop to near freezing by early Tuesday morning. - Troughing of varying deepness and track decide who gets moisture and who does not. Waiting for the next trough of low pressure to begin influencing our sensible weather across the west. Another warm day expected across the lower elevations.
613 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Temperatures this morning will start off cool in the lower 50s with some areas in northern MO seeing temps in the lower 40s. Weather today will be dry and pleasant as an upper level trough slides to our east, bringing in northerly winds at all levels and keeping temps in the mid to upper 70s.
/issued 341 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ The synoptic pattern has flipped over the past few days with a deep trough now residing over the eastern CONUS and a fairly broad ridge over the west. The ridge to our west is progged to build northeast over the top of this low, resulting in a classic Rex Block from the Great Lakes into the Lower MS Valley.
Afternoon highs will only reach the mid to upper 80s at the coast, climbing to the lower 90s over the interior. (previous) High pressure off the eastern US coast will slowly shift eastward through the time period.
1054 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. A split flow pattern will persist into Tuesday as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers are possible, mainly during the afternoon.
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 (Today and tonight) The axis of a positively tilted upper trough will shift east of our forecast area, with the upper low expected to eventually cut-off over the Mississippi Delta Region overnight. With another cut-off low already in place in the Pacific Ocean off Southern California and a blocking ridge inbetween, the upper flow across much of the CONUS will configure into an Omega Block Pattern. For today, our forecast area should stay under the far eastern extent of the blocking upper ridge, resulting in one more day of unseasonably warmer temperatures. Adjusted the MaxT for today only slightly warmer than the NBM and closer to MAV guidance.
613 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Very strong upper level ridging is expected to remain in place across the central US through the short term. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s with the warmest temperatures across northern Nebraska (north of US-20). Dry conditions remain in place through the end of the week as the upper level ridge slowly slides eastward.
Gordon Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday/ The quiet and warm trend will continue in the near term with North & Central Texas situated between upper level ridging to the west, and a closed low shifting southward to our east. The upper level clouds across Central Texas currently will continue to taper off in the overnight hours as the upper level flow transitions from the southwest to drier, more northwesterly winds as the upper low shifts south. /Issued 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Dry and warm weather conditions are forecast to continue the rest of the week and most of the following weekend as ridging builds over the southern Plains.
930 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Quiet morning across the region with the low level east to northeast flow continuing, albeit not as strong as over the weekend. /issued 430 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ High pressure is in place over the area today with a front stalling across the deep south. An upper low will stall over the AR/MS/TN region through mid-week as upper ridging remains over the state, before the low finally lifts out to the north by the end of the week, then through the state through the weekend. A front will then move into the area or push through over the weekend with the upper trough.
You can expected to have another day similar to yesterday, albeit a bit warmer.
-A quiet and mild week ahead -Warming up this weekend An omega blocking pattern continues to form with a cut-off low forecast to develop across the Mississippi Valley and another across southern California. In our neck of the woods we will remain on the periphary of the upper-level ridge bisecting the CONUS. This means we'll likely see dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures, especially for the end of the week. The Mississippi Valley low may retrograde a bit mid-week and this could bring slightly cooler temperatures and cloud cover to the area.
1027 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Upper level ridge will build over the region through mid week. Ridge starts breaking down by the end of the week as an upper level low lifts from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Trough axis across the Catoctins earlier this morning has moved through the area, subsidence will briefly follow in behind it and keep only an isolated shower around until the afternoon. Lows dropping into the lower 60s, mild for this time in October. Elsewhere should endure a brief break in any showers until later Tuesday afternoon and evening as energy arrives from the southwest around an upper level low pressure system.
VFR conditions will persist through the 12z TAF cycle as a dry air and high pressure settles in behind a frontal boundary that is moving across the area this morning. A cold front is currently draped across a line from Del Rio to just south of Victoria. Highs today and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s along the coast and in the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Dry air and high pressure will settle in behind the front, causing a decrease in cloud cover as the day progresses.
645 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 An upper level ridge shifts into the western Atlantic into early this week. Unsettled conditions are expected as a deep upper level trough develops over the eastern U. An upper trough to our west will increase moisture transport across the region through the period. With a closed upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley and surface pressure ridge to the east and weak trough across the Midlands from Georgia, expect low to mid level moisture flux/isentropic lift to increase across the region. Lift possibly enhanced by weak short wave troughs rotating around upper low in south to southwest flow.
633 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region this morning and a ridge in the Rockies. The ridge moves east into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Tue with the trough moving into the eastern U. Will go with more persistent clouds today into tonight than previous forecast had due to dry air being slower to move in and will change low temperatures in the far west to a bit warmer than previous forecast had in there because of the clouds.
521 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 It'll be a warm and dry start to the work week as a ridge of high pressure settles overhead. Its axis, currently situated directly over the Western Slope, will shift east towards the Northern Plains later this afternoon in response to an approaching closed low off the coast of southern California. Before the high exits the region, high temperatures today will climb to 3 to 6 degrees above normal for most sites under sunny skies.
Will see the diurnally- driven SHRA/TSRA activity develop by this afternoon with the closed low positioned across the northern OH Vly. A positively tilted H5 trough and surface cold frontal boundary will keep the forecast unsettled through the period. The cold front appears to stall out from the lower Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley. On Tuesday, the primary H5 trough will pinch off and create an upper-level low. This upper low will slowly propagate south, but will be the primary driver of our weather through the rest of the period. As the upper low drifts south, the synoptic flow pattern will actually transition into a ridge. A cut off upper level low pressure system located over the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night will lift slowly northeast across the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week as it gradually opens up.
Highs tomorrow are expected to be 5 - 10 degrees cooler as we start transitioning into a cooler, wetter pattern. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement a deep trough will gradually work its way into our area bringing much cooler high temperatures and unsettled weather to the region. Cluster analysis has yet to come into good agreement about the timing of this approaching trough. The most noticeable change will be the widespread cooler temperatures.
A cold front will move through Western Washington Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ Another fine day is on tap for West Texas as we will be positioned beneath amplifying ridging and on the western periphery of a developing closed low across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
518 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Across the region this morning, high pressure over the central Plains is providing clear skies area-wide. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, along with the current mid level water vapor imagery, is showing a building amplified ridge over the Rockies making a slow shift eastward towards the Plains region. There is an upper low over the Great Lakes region, and another off Baja California. Latest guidance for the short term period keeps the upper ridge in place over the Tri-State area.
The region will be between high pressure to the northeast, and an area of low pressure to the west this period.
Overnight temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
321 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Weak upper trofiness will remain overhead, as the closed low near Toledo ejects out, but a wave diving into Arkansas closes off to take over. Will stay dry Tue morning, but as the day progresses the upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley will push a warm front north and west into central Kentucky. Cut-off low, weatherman's woe. This old adage will certainly ring true throughout the rest of the work week as a cut- off low slowly drifts from the Lower MS Valley up into the OH Valley resulting in daily rain shower and thunderstorm chances, mostly diurnally driven, before upper ridging moves in from the west providing southern Indiana and central KY with a dry weekend.
An area of low pressure crossing Montana into southern Canada will bring breezy southerly winds, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible. Ridging over the Northern Plains will start to shift east as energy dives toward the west coast.
A stacked, broad, low pressure system near the MI border, and its associated small smaller scale vorts and low level trough, will combine with pockets of diurnal heating and lingering ample moisture to support scattered showers and slight chances for embedded thunder this afternoon into early this evening. This system will open south and morph into a large closed low near the Arkansas/Mississippi border by later tonight and Tuesday. Little change in temps otherwise in this near barotropic atmosphere as upper ridging builds overtop across the Upper Midwest and northern/western Great Lakes.
303 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 This afternoon and upper level ridge was located from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains while a longwave trough extended from southern Ontario into eastern Texas. A closed low develops tonight and Tuesday over the lower Mississippi Valley as a mid level trough moves across the western states.
238 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Quiet day so far across the mid state, with a brief break in the rain as the next trough in the Plains strengthens and moves closer to the region.
Models show a closed upper low developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight into Tuesday. This could cause weak cold air advection into the area Tuesday leading to afternoon highs a few degrees cooler than today although that will be dependent on the extent of the CAA.
1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 (Today and tonight) The axis of a positively tilted upper trough will shift east of our forecast area, with the upper low expected to eventually cut-off over the Mississippi Delta Region overnight. With another cut-off low already in place in the Pacific Ocean off Southern California and a blocking ridge inbetween, the upper flow across much of the CONUS will configure into an Omega Block Pattern. For today, our forecast area should stay under the far eastern extent of the blocking upper ridge, resulting in one more day of unseasonably warmer temperatures. Adjusted the MaxT for today only slightly warmer than the NBM and closer to MAV guidance.
1256 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. Precipitation should diminish in coverage tonight with loss of diurnal heating, but likely persist under upper troughing. A split flow pattern will persist into Tuesday as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers are possible, mainly during the afternoon.
143 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Hot and dry weather will continue through the short term period under strong high pressure aloft.
This will result in cooler conditions overnight, as well as on Tuesday. /Issued 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Dry and warm weather conditions are forecast to continue the rest of the week and most of the following weekend as ridging builds over the southern Plains.
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 4 2021 An upper level low pressure system off the northern Baja California coast will move slowly northeast across the area through Tuesday.
237 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Another quiet evening and overnight in store for the northern plains with 500mb ridging and clear skies. Temperatures will again climb well above normal with highs in the low 80s valley and west with mid 70s to the east which is 15 to 20 degrees above the normal values.
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Northerly flow aloft will continue into Tuesday with upper level low pressure lodged across the lower Mississippi Valley and an upper ridge axis from eastern New Mexico across the central high plains. RMcQueen Overall the week looks to remain quiet as upper ridging dominates the region. An upper low will stay positioned to our east through at least mid week as it is stuck in a blocking pattern. Overall this upper low will not influence our weather.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows significant breaks in the cloud cover across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and correspondingly, surface obs show that temps have warmed to the upper 70s/near 80 across this region. MaxTs will trend slightly cooler with 24hr deltas of -5F or less. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s are still a few to several degrees warmer than average for early October. A moist easterly flow around the high from the Atlantic should bring low clouds and perhaps some pockets of light rain/dz late Tuesday night into Wed.
245 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Unsettled conditions are expected as a deep upper level trough develops over the eastern U. However as the upper trough deepens to our west, the primary synoptic forcing will continue to remain north and west of our area.
Light northerly winds will persist through the afternoon, importing some dew points in the low to mid-50s into our far northwestern zones and reinforcing pleasant, slightly warmer than average conditions area wide with highs in the mid-80s expected.
922 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Strong high pressure aloft will continue to dominate our weather. JKL A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region today with a very dry air mass in place over the inter-Rockies and high plains. BT Cooler and unsettled weather will be the main story across the region through forecast period.
Continued warm and dry through Tuesday, then cooler and more moist Tuesday night and beyond. Two upper lows, one in Nevada and a stronger one off southern California will move through southern Idaho, the first one today with only some cloudiness, and the second one Tuesday night.
326 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 GOES water vapor imagery showed a developing upper low digging south into the Red River valley at midafternoon. A well-defined dry slot/subsidence band was evident around the southern periphery of the low, while the beginnings of a baroclinic leaf were evident in the downstream diffluent flow over the Midsouth. Over northeast MS, fog may be more in the form of elevated stratus, northwest of an inverted surface trof from east central MS to north central AL.
This is due to the result of establishing northwesterly flow aloft on the western and subsident side of a developing upper level low around the tri- state intersection of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Expect mainly clear skies tonight with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s across the Hill Country into the low to mid 60s elsewhere with radiational cooling. Afternoon highs are to run above average by a few degrees from the mid to upper 80s to the low 90s.
Temperatures are on track to hover in the mid to low 70s with dewpoints remaining in the low 70s through the overnight hours. The local area generally remains at the base of a broad upper level trough through Thursday afternoon, which maintains a general zonal flow aloft. In the lower levels, a ridge over the southwestern Atlantic maintains its grip over the Gulf as a trough draped down through the Mid Atlantic region pulls to the northeast through the period. High temperatures will be slightly cooler given the coverage of rainfall expected both days. Consequently, there is less of a concern for heat stress given the lower temperatures.
Lows tonight will be quite a bit cooler than what we have been seeing with temperatures mainly in the 60s.
An upper ridge of high pressure was located over the western US, while a low pressure center over old Mexico was continuing to advect moisture up into the Desert Southwest. The centroid of the upper high is forecast to settle over the Great Basin as the upper ridge strengthens over the next 24 hrs. Clearing skies will likely allow some patchy ground fog to develop in the vicinity of Alamosa early morning, then isolated convection will slowly develop once again after midday over the higher terrain. Plan on overnight lows in the 40s and 50s for most locations, then high temps tomorrow warming up into the mid 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 GOES 16 water vapor imagery and RAP analysis together highlight the broad troughing across eastern CONUS and ridging across the west. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread tonight as a cut off low interrupts the pattern of broad downstream troughing and ridging across the western and central CONUS.
217 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 MSAS surface analysis and airport observations depict an area of high pressure overhead early this morning, leading to quiet and cool conditions.
Thursday night and Friday will be dry as high pressure transitions across the region.
Tonight expect some patchy fog to develop and much cooler feeling tonight as temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. In fact, temperatures have remained in the low to mid 70s throughout the entire day. Easterly winds, noticeably less humidity, and cooler temperatures will be the theme. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s each day.
415 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Weak high pressure will extend over the area into Friday. The chance of rain will return over the weekend as a weakening area of low pressure moves through. However, by Friday afternoon an inverted trough over eastern Kentucky and West Virginia may try to pivot towards southeastern counties. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s with highs a few degrees warmer than today. An upper low over the Midwest will weaken as it tracks east through the lower Great Lakes this weekend.
In wake of the FROPA, a drier and cooler airmass will be in place across Arkansas w/ temperatures on Thursday remaining on average 5 to 10 degrees cooler than climatological normals for this time of the year. Cloud cover will diminish throughout the day to make way to partly sunny skies during Thursday afternoon across northern and central Arkansas w/ the influence of high pressure across the area and the placement of the boundary well to the south of the Natural state.
419 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 GOES 16 water vapor imagery and RAP analysis together highlight the broad troughing across eastern CONUS and ridging across the west. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread tonight as a cut off low interrupts the pattern of broad downstream troughing and ridging across the western and central CONUS.
217 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A couple of cooler days on tap for the area. The weak upslope will keep us 5 to 10 degrees cooler than recent days with readings in the 80s both today and Friday. This will also effectively create a cap to prevent any chance of convection, especially over the lower elevations.
High temperatures will be seasonably cool, with upper 70s to low 80s for the lowlands. A few isolated afternoon/evening showers and storms are possible across the higher terrain given daytime heating and low-level flow. High temperatures will be in the low 80s for the lowlands, with mid 60s and 70s for the higher terrain.
1028 PM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Great Basin region through tonight. A combination of lift from afternoon heating and good moisture will allow showers and storms to develop over the higher terrain and drift over valley locations across the south in weak northwest flow. Conditions will dry further on Thursday as the ridge axis shifts slightly west pushing the main monsoonal plume across Arizona, southwestern Utah, and Nevada. This ridge position will bring another round of monsoonal moisture to the region.
An approaching upper trough and surface warm front will produce better dynamics for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, especially in Central and Northcentral Wisconsin. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler than usual where there is shower activity and a couple degrees above normal where there is some sunshine.
Northwesterly flow continues to dominate the central third of the contiguous US as water vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough axis situated over the northeastern seaboard. Surface ridging remains in place over the central Plains and has led to mostly clear skies, and weak winds. By Friday, a cold front will move through during the day and will increase chances for precipitation. This boundary will continue to slowly move south as the upper low meanders off to the east.
Latest sfc analysis shows weak high pressure over the Mid Atlantic region with a stalled frontal boundary well off to the south. highs in the low/mid 80s. Areas of coastal SC could still see some moderate rain by daybreak however as this higher moisture area will be co-located with a right-entrance-region of an upr-level jet streak. At the surface, low pressure originating from southern Georgia lifts and travels up the Carolina coast. This low carries plenty of moisture with it, as precipitable water values jump to over 2. Highs generally in the lower 80s, with lows Friday night in the low 70s.