Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) An Omega block pattern has developed over the country, with a strong ridge centered over the Intermountain west and a trough over the northeastern states.
THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERTS TODAY. THE STRONGEST T-STORMS ERUPTED OVER SOUTHWEST AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH 30-50 MPH WINDS TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST WAS 1. BUT DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES ARE LOW. QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HIGH REZ MODELS TONIGHT IS VERY SPARSE.
802 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A RISK THAT STORMS COULD REFIRE THERE AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT THINK WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY THE LTG WILL BE ISOLATED. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
AFT 17Z MONDAY LOOK FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA / TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST AND EXPANDING TO THE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW SOME FLATTENING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL START TO INCREASE THE FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM.
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north central through central MO.
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ITS BEEN A WARM BUT GENERALLY NICE LATE JUNE DAY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH MORE HUMIDITY EVEN IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RAIN DURING THE DAY IS NOT VERY LIKELY AT ALL.
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO MID WEEK.
810 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT GOOD SOAKING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
1214 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
758 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
1152 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES BELOW 8K FT THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO OHIO MON AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE PIVOTS CYCLONICALLY IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
959 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
811 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 CENTRAL OHIO IS IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
609 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE WRN STATES RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING NWD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OFF THE COAST OF CA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PV ANOMALIES RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND COMING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SEEING NRLY SFC FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL KS. UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATING TCU/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN WY AND THE CO MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY PUTTING THE AREA IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 AVIATION AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. THAT MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN. A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. THIS LOW IS PROGD TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO INDIANA BY MONDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST. A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING 3 TO 5 DEGREE WARMER HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE WE WILL BE THAT MUCH WARMER THAN PREV FCST. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.
BUT A BAND OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HAZY SKIES TODAY ARE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STREAMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER UT. LOOK FOR A WEAK UPTICK IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL LAY OVER SOMEWHAT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING FUEL FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY. OTHERWISE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST.
THE HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL GO AWAY. THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES SWEEPING AROUND A WEAKENING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF IS WEAKENING TO A TROUGH. AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING 3 TO 5 DEGREE WARMER HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE WE WILL BE THAT MUCH WARMER THAN PREV FCST. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.
1245 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SOAKING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
A cold front continues to slow push south into the area early this evening. Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this afternoon.
/ISSUED 224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE CWA UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
WE ARE COOLING QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. ENJOY TONIGHT AS WE EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO RETURN ON MONDAY.
912 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS FORMATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND RIDGE ZONES TONIGHT.
AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTING CLOSED LOW OVER LK ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS CLOSED UPPER LOW. A CONTINUATION OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF THE REST OF WEEK BRINGING SCTD PRECIP MOST DAYS THOUGH WED THROUGH THU NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRIER. ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER UT. LOOK FOR A WEAK UPTICK IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL LAY OVER SOMEWHAT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. LCL HEIGHTS EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW SOME FLATTENING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES AND THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE TO HELP WITH FOG FORMATION.
1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH FROM ABOUT MID WEEK ONWARD THERE WILL BE SOME ALTERATIONS THAT HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR AREA.
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST. A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN.
1204 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS FORMATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND RIDGE ZONES TONIGHT.
808 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
1029 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT GOOD SOAKING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
1111 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE WRN STATES RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING NWD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OFF THE COAST OF CA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PV ANOMALIES RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND COMING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SEEING NRLY SFC FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL KS. UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATING TCU/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN WY AND THE CO MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY PUTTING THE AREA IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
/ISSUED 119 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY HOT LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST.
1221 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 AVIATION AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. THAT MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN. A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. THIS LOW IS PROGD TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO INDIANA BY MONDAY.
728 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
848 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT KEEPING A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH YEAR'S END. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WARMEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR/GULF COAST.
WELL TODAY TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY FOR LATE DECEMBER AS HIGHS AREA WIDE REACHED THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
845 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE IMMENSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OUT TO SEA.
THIS WILL KEEP AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING THROUGH 27. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A INTERSTATE 90.
MID AND UPPER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA.
LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AROUND CHA FROM 04-14Z AS THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FOG ARE THE MOSTLY LIKELY IMPEDIMENTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS HERE BEFORE MIXING ON UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW BUSTS OUT THE LOW DECKS.
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 459 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/ WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME SFC TEMPS ALONG/WEST OF I44 WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SW OK. MOST PROFILES SUGGEST THE INITIAL PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS EXTRM NRN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
622 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH WARM AIR OR MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING TO FEATURE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEYS. OF COURSE SNOW WILL ALSO AFFECT SISKIYOU SUMMIT ON INTERSTATE 5 AND THE HIGH PASSES IN THE CASCADES. GIVEN THE HIGH VOLUME OF HOLIDAY TRAFFIC EXPECTED TOMORROW.
529 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
For the 0Z TAFs, IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail at all sites this evening as thunderstorms associated with a cold front move through the region. Bulk shear values around 50-60 kts and impressive low-level helicity will remain favorable for rotating thunderstorms (and possible tornadoes) the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening before the cold front pushes through the most of the forecast area. Exit-region jet dynamics ahead of the approaching upper low along with the anomalously high PWs will remain favorable for several periods of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms through the weekend.
THE COLD FRONT CORRESPONDING TO THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTN. THE COLD FRONT CORRESPONDING TO THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTN AND RESULT IN STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 74 63 71 / 20 20 60 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 74 58 72 / 10 20 30 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 72 58 72 / 10 20 40 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 73 54 67 / 10 20 20 60.
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY COUNTY DESERTS TODAY FROM STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH DESERT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND WINDS TURN FURTHER NE AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME WARMING DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE INLAND.
FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WILL COMBINE TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO AROUND ZERO BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AND SLIDE EASTWARD SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE WEST COAST. DIGGING TROF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK AGAINST THE LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROF AND ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE.
1021 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME ELY AND EVENTUALLY NELY THIS EVENING. AND NOW HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NEGAUNEE TO THE NRN HURON MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO FAR SCENTRAL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. THIS CLOSED LOW HEADS DUE NORTH INTO NE WI 12Z TUE AND TO ERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WED. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS 12Z WED WHICH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH TROUGHING REMAINING INTO 12Z SAT WITH COLDER AIR AT 850 MB FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT CIGS TO HOLD IN THE LOW MVFR HIGH IFR RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST. VSBYS TO BE IN THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE AS WELL WITH THE LOWEST VALUES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS.
312 PM MST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE SECOND UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN AZ LAST NIGHT PLUNGED TO SW NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ITS ENERGY WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY SOME HIGH VALLEYS THAT THE MODELS OFTEN MISS WELL ON THE HIGH SIDE. ROBUST CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CREATE A REX PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE STRONG AND ONLY GET STRONGER UNDER A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
/ISSUED 431 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/ AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
459 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME SFC TEMPS ALONG/WEST OF I44 WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SW OK. MOST PROFILES SUGGEST THE INITIAL PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.
/ISSUED 250 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015/ STILL LOOKING AT A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS GEORGIA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING NOTICEABLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE MAP AT 22Z SHOWS WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A VERY WARM & MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVING IN THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH. NAM SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EDGING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY DEVELOPING BEFORE NOON AT CKV (ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON), TS POSSIBLE AT BNA DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND ACTIVE WEATHER UNLIKELY AT CSV.
HRRR is close to current warm front position, if a bit too far north.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A STRONG YET SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE GULF.
A STRONG YET SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE GULF.
431 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS POTENT UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS EXTRM NRN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
422 PM MST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE SECOND UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN AZ LAST NIGHT PLUNGED TO SW NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ITS ENERGY WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY SOME HIGH VALLEYS THAT THE MODELS OFTEN MISS WELL ON THE HIGH SIDE. ROBUST CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CREATE A REX PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE STRONG AND ONLY GET STRONGER UNDER A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
REST OF CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
The strongest convection will continue to slowly spread eastward associated with cold frontal boundary. The severe weather potential will remain present along and ahead of the cold front where conditions remain sufficiently unstable.
WV imagery shows an upper ridge extending from Baja NE intothe upper Midwest, adjacent to a trough centered over the Texas GulfCoast. Yesterday yielded little in the way of convection developingon the backside of the trough, and today looks even less likely, asthe trough is still forecast to lift NE into the SE CONUS. Instead, the upper ridge builds in, but temps won'tfluctuate much, as thicknesses and H85 temps are forecast to changelittle.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ONL THROUGH LBF TO CYS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN U. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHEAST TODAY TO NEAR AN IMPERIAL THROUGH GRAND ISLAND LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARMER H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL EXIST ACROSS SWRN NEBR WITH HIGHS NEAR I80 WARMING TO 76 DEGREES AND EVEN WARMER NEAR 85 DEGREES AT IML AND STOCKVILLE. LOWS NEAR PREVIOUS FCST FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. POLAR JET WILL MIGRATE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER 48 BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.