Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak area of low pressure continues to meander to the south with a bonafide tropical airmass across the Florida peninsula and grazing the far southeast big bend. The exception is again across the southeast big bend where greater chances of rain exist closer to the weak area of low pressure and higher moisture. An area of heat index values around 107 is expected from around Apalachicola to Tallahassee to Bainbridge, which is only a couple of degrees short of heat advisory criteria.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC BASIN IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL PATTERN. STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALSO REMAINS WELL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY STATES. ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING SWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN. ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST MODEL SUITES HINTING AT DEW PT VALUES RETURNING WELL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETREATS SLOWLY TO THE W AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DIVES SEWD. WARMER TEMPS THOUGH WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP STARTING OFF THE NEW WEEK.
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
159 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND A WEAK FRONT EDGES INTO THE CWA (COURTESY OF THE DE- VELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT) WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK OF POPS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS. THE RIDGING TO THE WEST PROGGED TO BE A BIT STRONGER/FURT- HER EAST THAN RUNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HELPING TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.
430 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. AND AS THE LOW NEAR CENTRAL BAJA LIFTS NORTHWARD.
IN THE MEAN TIME, MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO RULE SUPREME IN OUR CORNER OF THE WORLD. THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH.
116 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1136 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY.
BEHIND THIS LOW CLOUD DECK. SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
75 /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ RAIN IS ENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BOOT HEEL. AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THUS LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME TEN DEGREES COOLER WITH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS NO BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SO EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO DECLINE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
1037 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK TROUGH/FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY AS ITS PARENT LOW WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC.
BUT IT WILL ONLY TAKE AN HOUR OF SUNSHINE TO BOOST THEM INTO THE LOW 50S. WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WESTERN FA.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GOMEX TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS INLD SE GA.
MEAN LAYER ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SHOWS EVIDENCE OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA. AND THE OTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER NW MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF AXIS. WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL LA. ALONG WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF. THE HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONVECTION BEING VERY EFFICIENT AT RAIN PRODUCTION. THOUGH HOW QUICKLY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OUT WEST BEGINS TO CUT OFF AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH WEST TX AND NRN MEXICO.
1045 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA WITH TRAILING FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH SURFACE TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROF FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST. A MILD AND DRY WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE TROF AND A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER.
1037 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
1123 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
645 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WET GROUND SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
1253 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HYDRO A WET HALLOWEEN IS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE HIGHEST N OF I 80 WHERE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED AMPLIFY INTO A BROAD ERN CONUS RIDGE MUCH OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
1007 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
518 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA. WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE. LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
1244 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
910 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.
930 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARM WEEKEND WITH CLEAR SKIES.
WERE AS LOW AS 2 MILES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN BUT AT 7 AM CDT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WERE 4-5 MILES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
730 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
1015 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IMPACTING THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SETTLES OVER OUR REGION. AND WILL IN FACT TREND WARMER OVER TIME AS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR GETS FED INTO OUR REGION.
709 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS TRANSPORTING PACIFIC AND SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAIN IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS OVERRUNNING INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL RACE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY THANKS TO RAIN AND CLOUDS.
715 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO WASHINGTON THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. JG /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ RAIN IS ENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BOOT HEEL. AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THUS LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME TEN DEGREES COOLER WITH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT QUICKLY MOVED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LAST NIGHT TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT VERY MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH STRONGER LIFT IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THIS WARM FRONT. NEWEST MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY TO THE EAST. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOME SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES TODAY.
1044 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.
Cooler and wetter weather starts Sunday as a Pacific storm system moves into the West Coast. It will bring the first significant snow event of the season to the high Sierra with rain elsewhere. After a thriller Saturday night, Sunday's focus switches to cooler and wetter weather through midweek as a Pacific storm moves into our region.
629 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 RAIN IS ENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BOOT HEEL. AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THUS LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME TEN DEGREES COOLER WITH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
725 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGETOPS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES IN SE OREGON ARE DECREASING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING IN OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
733 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IMPACTING THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SETTLES OVER OUR REGION. AND WILL IN FACT TREND WARMER OVER TIME AS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR GETS FED INTO OUR REGION.
1143 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
930 AM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARM WEEKEND WITH CLEAR SKIES.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front has made it as far south as KMAF, resulting in MVFR cigs at KMAF and KHOB. A cold front is currently moving through the northern Permian Basin and will result in high temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 60s across most areas. An upper level trough is over West Texas, but the upper level lift and heavy rainfall associated with this feature is east of the region. Temperatures are expected to warm back up into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area on Sunday as the upper trough moves over east Texas.
721 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
The NAM Bufr soundings seem to be capturing the low clouds better than the GFS and based on those trends expect the low clouds to remain over the next few hours. Based on the increased clouds this morning, have lowered the hourly temps slightly for the next few hours until there are more breaks in the lower clouds.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY EXITING NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
753 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AVIATION A WET HALLOWEEN IS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
A weak cold front will moving across the area this morning, with light northwest winds developing. The upper low will move across the area this afternoon and could see a few spotty light rain showers develop mainly across southern sections. At the surface, a weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with light north to northwest winds developing. Temperatures today will be pleasant, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 70s elsewhere.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AND WEAKEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER. SOME RURAL AREAS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING.
739 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A PARTIALLY SHEARED TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS OVER THE WEST SIDE. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST.
1000 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
-HOWERTON WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRI. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WESTERN TROF DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY RESIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH 3PM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WHILE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS TROF. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXITS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS MILD IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST BUT COOLING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NW (LAKE COUNTY).
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL REMAIN FAIR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE FROSTY LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A MILDER FLOW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOME AREAS. UPPER LONGWAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE DESERT SW. TODAYS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BUILDING NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure slowing it's eastward advance across the Great Basin tonight while building southward into the Desert Southwest. Although the flow aloft will begin to intensify somewhat downstream of the trough axis during the period, a lack of moisture/instability will keep precip chances at bay through late Tuesday afternoon.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH A RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
1254 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
ERVIN 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING PRESENT TO ACT UPON THE LIMITED MOISTURE THAT IS ALOFT. AFTER THIS A H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURE AGAIN AND A LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
708 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER TODAY. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A NICE WARM UP TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE KEPT THE HIGH POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN US. DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM WED NGT INTO THU NGT.
819 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
Low pressure in far western Kansas and high pressure in the southeastern CONUS have maintained a strong pressure gradient across the local area. The increased cloud cover will be in response to an incoming short wave trough and enhanced isentropic ascent in the mid levels. Will then have another day of gusty and warm conditions with highs in the lower 80s and winds gusting to 30 mph.