Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the upper level trough lingers over us it will send a few short waves through the area this afternoon and evening. This is due to a deep cold layer aloft and a shallow layer above freezing at the surface.
Winds are northeast to east near 10 mph, with temperatures generally in the lower 80s. Radar shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Keys island chain, especially over portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. Broken bands of stronger activity have been concentrated in the Straits of Flroida south of the Lower and Middle Keys, collocated with a 925 mb vorticity maximum, analyzed using CIMMS- derived products. An upper-level longwave trough will dig southeastward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday and Friday night, providing increased large- scale forcing for ascent in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. This will likely be the window of opportunity for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, before the aforementioned front pushes back southeastward and a ridge gradually builds over the Florida peninsula over the weekend.
Given how the low is expected to develop, there could be quite the enhancement along the North Shore of Lake Superior where good trajectories of air parcels will pick up moisture and deposit it in the cold air mass that should be residing over the MN Arrowhead locally enhancing totals there. There still is a bit of uncertainty on the northern extent of the warmer temperatures which if they continue to trend northward will eat into the snowfall totals (this is largely dependent on the lows track which model consensus treks over the Apostle Islands). The highest uncertainty is at KINL which may get into a lot of snow or not so much depending on how the system tracks and how the precip shield sets up.
With the onshore flow helping to stir up the lower levels over eastern counties, the best chance will be across inland locations, with locally dense fog a possibility. High pressure will be northeast of the region Today, continuing the moist onshore flow. The high will lift to the northeast Tonight as an inverted trough develops over the area. A cold front will move southeast across forecast area Friday.
625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front moving through the area early this morning has resulted in isolated to scattered showers, although precipitation amounts are very light due to dry air in place. The main impact from the front is significantly cooler temperatures than yesterday. Highs today will be in the 60s, or 20 to 25 degrees cooler than yesterday.
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon with light southerly flow, but a cold front will push through the area later today bringing with it a chance of showers and MVFR CIGs. Increasing southerly flow today ahead of an approaching cold front. As of 3am, the cold front was moving through central Oklahoma stretching down across DFW moving towards the southeast. It will also usher in a cooler temperatures (highs only in the upper 60s on Friday) and a breezy northerly wind that will continue through the day on Friday. The weekend is looking pretty fantastic weather-wise as high pressure builds in over the region producing temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s and clear skies.
An upper trough over the plains today will slowly shift east on Friday leaving the Dakotas under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
234 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Radar shows the cold front moving across the area this afternoon very well, with boundary currently along a Lawrenceburg to Woodbury to Livingston line. Cold front should be east of our forecast area by 22Z-00Z, with scattered light rain showers gradually spreading eastward through tonight. Temperatures will be much cooler on Friday with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s.
1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 (Today and tonight) A cold front continues to move through Oklahoma and western north Texas, bringing cooler temperatures and strong winds behind the front. The High Wind Warning in western Oklahoma and western north Texas will continue until 15Z today, however this warning will be gradually trimmed as winds diminish far behind the cold front. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Thursday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in northern Oklahoma, to mid 70s in northern Texas/southern Oklahoma. Overnight lows Thursday into friday will range from the lower 30s in northwestern Oklahoma to mid 40s further south.
Marginal frost conditions are expected for the metro area with urban heat island keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer. Secondary cold front will sweep through the area tomorrow morning.
This should allow for efficient radiational cooling with clearing skies as winds decouple, resulting in a much better chance for many lower elevations to see below freezing temperatures. Left the Grand Valley and southeast/east-central Utah valleys out of the Freeze Warning tonight as temperatures look to remain near or above freezing for the majority of those zones. Temperatures return to near normal levels Friday following a cooler day today behind yesterday's cold front. The jet stream will continue to keep the broad trough across the central U. High pressure will stay to our southwest as stronger pieces of energy move through upper flow aloft and reinforce the trough.
The cooler airmass in place over the region and the light winds will lead to lows in the 30s and lower 40s across the fa tonight.
A dry cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures today and Friday for areas northeast of the Mogollon Rim to the Four Corners. A weak cold front brought just enough wind overnight to keep inversions from forming some normally cold spots.
326 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Scattered showers continue to move through the area this afternoon behind a cold front that passed through early this morning. Looking at all the latest guidance, it does appear as if parts of southern IL, southwest IN and southeast Missouri will drop below freezing. Right now temperatures are forecast to be above freezing outside of the freeze warning. High pressure that will be overhead at the start of the day, will slowly move east by late afternoon and into the evening. The potential for more frost will exist Friday night, but should be confined to eastern areas and the higher terrain in the Ozarks.
Cooler temperatures will remain in place Friday, through the weekend, and into the upcoming week. Dry weather is expected through Friday as a cold high pressure area moves into the area. Overnight lows will get down to below freezing tonight so will continue the Freeze Warning across the entire CWA.
1158 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front moving through the area early this morning has resulted in isolated to scattered showers, although precipitation amounts are very light due to dry air in place. The main impact from the front is significantly cooler temperatures than yesterday. Highs today will be in the 60s, or 20 to 25 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Cold front is currently knocking on the door of Stewart County, and will sweep through Middle Tennessee the rest of the morning into the afternoon. Cold front located just northwest of BNA at this time. Broad upper troughing will build in, but we do see some upper level energy in the post frontal sector.
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Broad upper trough extends across the Northern Plains with the main vort lobe stretching from the western Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Cold front pushed through the forecast area early Wed evening and is now situated from southeast MO into southern OK. Warmer temps Sat will come at a cost as southwest winds will be strong, with gusts approaching 40 mph possible. So confidence is high that cold front will surge through Sat night and clear southern KS early Sun morning. ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS in generating precip along a warm front over southeast KS Mon into Mon night. However, both models do agree on bringing another cold front through Tue into Tue night.
104 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Northwesterly flow will persist at the surface and aloft today as a large trough continues to drop southward across the Midwest. Northwest winds are expected to remain in the 5-10 MPH range, but we should still see enough radiational cooling to get subfreezing temperatures in northwestern portions of the area. By Friday, we will see rising heights aloft as the trough shifts eastward and takes the coldest temperatures with it.
321 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A strong cold front will push through the region today, bringing a chance of showers. Dry but much cooler air will then settle into the region through the end of the week, with a return to more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. With strong CAA pushing in behind the front, greatest confidence for freezing temperatures will be in the far west with the existing freeze warning in place. For Friday night, as the center of the high shifts east and flow becomes southerly, the greater chance for frost will be in the eastern forecast area where winds will be calm, but holding off for now on additional frost advisories. While a valley low near 30 isn't outside the realm of possiblity, with the center of the high to our east, more likely lower to mid 30s.
Cold front is currently knocking on the door of Stewart County, and will sweep through Middle Tennessee the rest of the morning into the afternoon.
228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Main story this short term is with the cold frontal passage this afternoon and tonight. Much cooler conditions will exist in the wake of the front. Look for lows from the lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast. /CME/ Tomorrow night through Thursday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a longwave trough axis lifting into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Even with temps in the 40s to low 50s, ice pellets/snow would be possible with some of these showers given the low freezing levels and steep lapse rates. Southerly winds will ramp up Friday night ahead of low pressure forming back in the plains/western Minnesota.
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a cold front crosses the area. Showers will be developing later today with the encroachment of a cold front with an amplifying upper trough on the strength of a strong jet core. The trailing jet core is projected to carve a high-amplitude trough over the ern CONUS on Friday.
The biggest caveat to the development of widespread frost is that the air may be too dry - forecast soundings show pretty dry air in the low levels and most model guidance shows RH up to around 70% at best, with the exception of the more moist NAM. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s as a result - a few degrees warmer than today.
Mid afternoon temperatures were in the lower to mid 50s. Forecast soundings suggest the low levels quite dry so little if any rainfall expected.
This will set the stage for another cold night with lows once again below freezing at most locations. Temperatures will also be warmest in these areas with highs in the lower 60s.
East canyon winds will likely develop this evening with stronger gusts to between 20-25kts possible at KABQ as the center of high pressure at the sfc pushes into east central NM by 16/12Z. Much cooler air behind a cold front will slide into the eastern half of the state today.
1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front passed through last night accompanied with some gusty winds. Skies clearing from the west will lead to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Increasing cloud cover associated with the next incoming short wave and sustained overnight surface winds would help keep much of the area above freezing. With the soundings showing the low levels saturating, added a small chance of rain for this time period.
1155 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A high pressure located over Nebraska continues to draw down cool Canadian air over the Northern Plains. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s, but mostly sunny skies may cause it to feel a bit warmer. The cold air mass allows temperatures to again fall to around freezing by early morning Friday.
Clouds have held on over the eastern counties ahead of the approaching cold front. Both of these features will move through the area this afternoon and evening, bringing gusty winds and cooler temperatures to the area. With the cloud cover continuing into tomorrow, lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, and highs Friday will top out in the lower to middle 70s. Some clearing is expected Friday night which will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 50s across much of the region.
Overnight, mixing winds should remain at 7 to 12 mph with low temps dropping into the lower to middle 20s.
208 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Surface winds will relax this evening as high pressure settles over the region. Some of the typically cool valley locations may briefly see freezing temperatures around sunrise.
Surface ridging was in the northern Panhandle currently and will expand and shift south overnight over the South Plains and then east into North Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Some locations in our northwest zones may drop to the freezing mark overnight, but a widespread frost or freeze is not anticipated at this time, with model consensus above 32 in most spots. Did bump up temperatures a degrees on the Caprock, and wouldn't be surprised if the trend is even warmer for the overnight shift.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front moved through the forecast area today, with cooler, drier air behind.
Expecting some shock tomorrow as a mainly dry cold front moves through overnight with some cloudy skies, much cooler temperatures and a brisk north wind.
144 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Cooler air will overspread the region today through the weekend.
400 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a cold front crosses the area. Showers will be developing later today with the encroachment of a cold front with an amplifying upper trough on the strength of a strong jet core. The trailing jet core is projected to carve a high-amplitude trough over the ern CONUS on Friday.
1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front has moved through the area this morning. 15/12Z TAF CYCLE A cold front will push through Arkansas from the northwest today. Today Through Friday Night A cold front was pushing into northwest Arkansas from the Plains early this morning. It will be significantly cooler/drier behind the front, with temperatures toward the Missouri border dropping in the lower to mid 30s. High pressure will follow the front on Friday.
Cooler. Well the cold front did move south, across West Central Texas early this morning. Thus, confidence is high for lows tonight, mainly in the 40s, and highs tomorrow much cooler than usual, for mid October.
The main feature of interest through the remainder of the forecast period will be an incoming cold front overnight and into Friday. The cold front passage will likely be dry for most. The primary sensible impact from the front will be the much cooler and drier airmass advecting into the area behind it. Friday will bring breezy northwest winds, and high temperatures will be some 15 or more degrees cooler for north Georgia.
A few clouds were developing across parts of the forecast area ahead of a cold front. Approaching cold front moving through Middle Tennessee this afternoon. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 64 42 68 49 / 30 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 60 40 64 44 / 50 40 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 61 39 64 44 / 50 40 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 57 36 62 40 / 50 50 0 0 0.
244 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A fairly typical fall day across the region, although a bit cooler than normal with most locations in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows again dip into the lower to mid 30s.
347 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front is pushing into the Bluegrass this afternoon, with quite the temperature drop from western Kentucky in the 50s to eastern Kentucky in the 70s. There are some showers behind the front as a post frontal trough and upper level divergence aid in lifting this. A cold front is pushing across the state this afternoon and will push through the whole state by later this afternoon and early evening. Initially the wind will be out of the southwest before shifting to the northwest through the afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Then a post frontal trough will bring a line of rain showers later this evening into tonight.
346 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Current radar shows activity is on the increase across the Florida Keys coastal waters and island chain, particularly adjacent to the Lower Keys. Whatever lull occurs will likely be short-lived, as an upper-level trough approaches the southeast Gulf of Mexico early on Friday.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Large-scale upper trof continues to occupy much of the CONUS as it slowly churns ewd. Associated cold front continues to drift swd across our area, bringing increasing drizzle/light rain, gusty nely winds, and cooler temps in its wake. Skies across our n should begin to clear late tonight as high pressure builds in at the sfc, so these areas should experience some decent radiational cooling. Clear skies and light winds will allow for chilly temps Friday night, with most areas dropping into the low to mid 40s.
A few showers will accompany the passage of cold front and upper trough later today into Friday.
As this system approaches a weak warm frontal boundary will set up bringing scattered showers to much of the west throughout the day.
Main weather highlight through the next 24 hours will be a cold front that is expected to push through the area.
211 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Short term: The big story in the short term of the forecast, through this weekend, will be the cold front and storm system expected to impact the region. The best chances for accumulating snowfall to stick to the ground and road surfaces beyond for a very short time looks to be in the southwestern areas, closer to the higher terrain areas of the Little Rockies/Judiths/Snowies.
Rain chances nudge back up tomorrow as moisture increases over South FL and a weak upper level trough drags over the eastern Gulf.
Plenty of cloud cover across the Lower Peninsula being augmented by activation of Lake Michigan. Low pressure over Lake Superior moves into northern Ontario this morning but little to no further intensification is expected. This system's cold front subsequently sweeps across SE MI clearing to region to the east by mid to late morning. Main (re)development along the cold front is expected just to the east of SE MI with only the southeastern sliver of the CWA having a chance to see scattered to widespread rain. Areas of frost will be possible tonight as lows drop to just above freezing. Cold airmass settles over MI Friday as the upper trough slowly swings through the Great Lakes. As a result highs Friday will be similar to today's, perhaps a degree or two cooler in the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): For the short term, the main story will be a cold front passing through the area late tonight into Friday morning. We will continue to lean towards the NAM solution in regards to timing, with the front moving through Deep South Texas by mid to late morning, and cooler temperatures for Friday.
1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 (Today and tonight) A strong cold front at 07Z extended from Fredrick, OK to Lubbock, moving south quickly. The cold front will crash south across West Central Texas this morning and be south of the I-10 corridor by 17Z. Much cooler today, with highs in the 70s.
253 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front made it's way through our area early this morning, resulting in northeasterly winds that will keep our high temps in the 70's today and tomorrow. The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains has also been allowed to expire even though elevated gap winds will continue at Guadalupe Pass though remaining just below High Wind Warning criteria. Cooler NE flow will hold our low temps tonight in the 40's and Friday night in the 50's where they should remain for the coming week.
These conditions will then prevail through early this evening, before lower cigs move in leading to MVFR conditions overnight with the arrival of a cold front.
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 The cold fall airmass that overspread the area last night will lead to widespread frost and freezing temperatures tonight.
Strong ridge of high pressure remains centered off the northern California coast and continues to provide dry conditions and above normal temperatures to the central California interior. Cooler air over the Great Basin has resulted in an offshore surface flow and visible satellite imagery shows smoke from the Sierra wildfires spreading south over the Kern County Desert and westward over the San Joaquin Valley. The ridge will remain in control on Friday with little change in the well above normal high temperatures. Some modest weakening of the ridge and a drift farther offshore this weekend will result in slightly lower temperatures.
Surface analysis showed a cold front just south of a line from Natchez to Jackson to Macon. This cold front was well ahead of the anafrontal precipitation that local radars showed over our delta region. The cold front will continue south tonight with a gusty north to northeast wind ushering in a colder and drier airmass. /22/ Prior discussion below: Main story this short term is with the cold frontal passage this afternoon and tonight. Much cooler conditions will exist in the wake of the front. Look for lows from the lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast. /CME/ Tomorrow night through Thursday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a longwave trough axis lifting into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Radar shows the cold front moving across the area this afternoon very well, with boundary currently along a Lawrenceburg to Woodbury to Livingston line. Cold front should be east of our forecast area by 22Z-00Z, with scattered light rain showers gradually spreading eastward through tonight. Temperatures will be much cooler on Friday with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s.
Latest MAV guidance coming in with lows across the northern valley in the teens, however with late start do to increased sky cover and winds remaining ~10-mph, the slightly warmer blended solution seems reasonable. Overnight, mixing winds should remain at 7 to 12 mph with low temps dropping into the lower to middle 20s.
With the front through the area, we now will turn to the high pressure ridge that will move in tomorrow afternoon and usher in some much cooler air for Friday night. It does look like we'll be talking widespread frost for the first time this fall and potentially even a few spots near freezing on the Plateau.
A dry cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures Friday for areas northeast of the Mogollon Rim to the Four Corners.
703 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A cold front through GLH-GWO at 2330Z will bring -RA, a gusty n-ne wind and occasional MVFR cigs tonight as it moves through the area. /22/ Main story this short term is with the cold frontal passage this afternoon and tonight. Much cooler conditions will exist in the wake of the front. Look for lows from the lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast. /CME/ Tomorrow night through Thursday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a longwave trough axis lifting into the Mid-Atlantic states.