Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface analysis this evening places a ridge of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast United States and extending back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Infrared satellite trends indicate increasing clouds associated with an area of low pressure near the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. /issued 317 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/ Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the the lower 50s to mid 60s. A weak cold front will move across Oklahoma this evening and reach northwest Arkansas by Sunday morning. The cold front will move out of the region Sunday night with a small chance of rain over far eastern sections in the evening. Cooler air will start to move into the region with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 40s.
The high clouds are pretty thick at this point, and the 5-10kft layer is beginning to moisten up over southeast Missouri. The system is forecast to sharpen as it approaches, inducing a surface trof which will move through the PAH forecast area during the day Sun. By then, the cold front's wind shift should be well underway. Some clouds may be a bit slow to clear in the east early Mon due to the departing trof axis. After a modest warmup during the rest of the weekend, Monday's high temps should be quite similar to today's, well below average for this time of year, followed by lows near freezing Mon night.
High pressure builds eastward through the period, being overhead for much of the day Sunday, leading to pleasant conditions. Sunday night, while we do have marginally enough surface moisture for some fog problems, the high pressure will build eastward enough for gradient winds to return to the region after midnight, negating much of the risk. The lowest layer of stratus near 925mb mixes out, to be replaced by a higher layer in the 900- 850mb layer further eastward in the afternoon, first close to I 29 at 18Z, then ushering eastward Monday afternoon.
140 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail into Sunday as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east.
Southwest flow aloft in advance of the next trough will continue through the short term period. The incoming trough is a strong one, and surface winds will increase in southeast Oregon Monday, especially in the higher elevations.
214 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure centered across New England will maintain a northeasterly flow across the area on Sunday. On Monday, upper-level trough will dip down into the mid- Atlantic as a dry cold front will move towards the region late in the day. This front wont arrive in time to influence any changes to the weather on Monday as we'll have to wait one more day for the just slightly cooler and drier air to make it into the area. Weak upper level troughing over the eastern seaboard will hold through the week as ridging gradually builds into the western Gulf.
457 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail through this afternoon as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east. As a result, ridges in the north will keep below 40F, and even the SE will be about 10F below normal for mid-Nov. *Light wintry mix likely Sunday Night-AM Monday *Slick spots and travel delays possible early Monday morning Forecast remains consistent tongiht through Monday afternoon as persistent zonal flow aloft and return flow around retreating high pressure offshore deliver sufficient moisture for some light precipitation late tonight through Monday afternoon. The Lower Susq Valley appears likely to escape most of the wintry wx with surface temps remaining well above freezing.
216 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Difficult forecast regarding coverage and extent of clouds, fog, freezing fog, visibilities and temperatures. Areas in the clear are below freezing and starting to get dense freezing fog. Basically dense fog/freezing fog is expected to expand east/northeast tonight then dissipate a bit across the west toward morning. As has been the case the last week, models have had trouble in resolving the low level thermal and moisture fields. All in all the temperatures look near to slightly cooler than todays maxes.
300 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will move east today. A weak area of low pressure will pass south of New England Monday.
354 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Satellite imagery this morning shows a progressive pattern in place across the Nation with small amplitude troughs noted moving east through it. This trend looks to continue this coming work week as no large scale blocking is noted or forecast to develop any time soon. This will keep temperatures wandering across a seasonally normal range over the coming week with a couple of chances for precipitation based on the timing of specific troughs move across the Plains States. As the trough moves farther east today it will allow a bit drier air to move in, but with the cloud cover and north winds lingering well into the day expect temperatures to remain a bit cool.
356 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 A good deal of clouds will be over the area today but no precipitation is expected as high pressure persists over the area today and tonight. A low pressure system will pass to our south on Monday. No precipitation is expected with high pressure over the area and high temperatures will generally be in the 30s.
249 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 A good deal of clouds will be over the area today but no precipitation is expected as high pressure persists over the area today and tonight. A low pressure system will pass to our south on Monday. No precipitation is expected with high pressure over the area and high temperatures will generally be in the 30s.
Regardless, stratus clouds will persist most of Sunday morning, which will hold temperatures well above freezing in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Even with the expected afternoon sunshine, cool high pressure near 1030 mb across the eastern CWA, and 850 mb temperatures only in the 3-6C range, will only allow for low to mid 50s this afternoon.
Temps will fall back into the low/mid 40s, except around 50F south central.
The high-resolution CAMs continue to show the activity remaining fairly weak. Overnight as the trough moves east, a cold front will begin to move across the area. Tomorrow the eastern zones will be able to warm up ahead of the cold front.
Latest water vapor imagery denotes a upper level ridge that extends from the southwest US into Saskatchewan with an upper level trough downstream from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains. Elsewhere, a upper level trough is over the Pacific Offshore waters and is approaching the West Coast. The ridge will shift slowly eastward over the next 24 hours and is expected to extend from the Southwest US to Manitoba. High pressure and resulting dry conditions remains in place for the beginning of the week. As high pressure moves eastward, a low pressure system over southern Canada will drag a cold front across the northern Plains on Monday night.
202 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first half of the week with the encroachment of a front and cold upper low pressure.
Dry and low level cool advection will bring slightly cooler, but still seasonal temperatures to the area on Monday. Surface ridging will move remnants of boundary to the south of the forecast area, so expect no storms to develop.
It will generally be in the 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations with upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. An approaching cold front in the northwest will likely aid in an increased chance of thunderstorms with possible evening aid by the right entrance region of a jet streak.
348 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern MT, with frontal boundary stretching southeast into the Black Hills area. Cold front stretches southwest from the low across ID and northern NV. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low over the Southern Plains, with positively tilted ridge extending from the Southern Rockies to the northern high plains. Skies are mainly sunny across the area with temps in the 80s to around 90 degrees across the plains, 70s over the higher Black Hills. Warm conditions will continue into the upcoming week as ridging holds fairly strong across the region. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s and lower 90s again, ahead of slowly approaching cold front.
Strong cold front will move southward through the area, entering the northeast around midnight and exiting the south toward 12Z Monday. Much cooler air is expected Monday, especially near Lake Michigan.
Highs tomorrow will still be around 80 but cooler and drier conditions are expected for the rest of the week. As earlier feared, surface dewpoints struggling to climb out of the low/mid 60s, far from most raw guidance. Passing wave will merge with James Bay upper low and form a seasonably strong cutoff/closed low over the eastern Great Lakes through at least midweek. Trend over the past few model cycles has been a slightly more westward location of upper low, increasing the influence on our area's weather. A couple of vorticity spokes will rotate around the upper low and, combined with relatively cool temps aloft, may support a the chance for a few showers and storms. Some weak low level convergence along secondary cold front structure but overall forcing is weak and precip mainly supported by steep-ish lapse rates.
Expect warm and dry weather across most of northern Arizona this week as high pressure persists over the southern Rockies. A ridge of high pressure from Mexico stretching up along the AZ/NM border will persist through much of the coming week.
computer simulations and forecast model soundings indicate that a drier and warmer upper ridging pattern will be developing over the forecast district into tonight.
407 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move southeast tonight and Monday, pushing a slow moving cold front across the region by Monday night.
231 PM MST Sun Jun 4 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week as a strong high pressure system produces mostly clear, dry, and hot weather.
/issued 306 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ Upper low will begin to ever so slowly translate south and southeast by late today and tonight. Before this occurs will see another day with showers and thunderstorms developing and drifting slowly around the low. Some lingering precip chances across the south/southeast on Monday, otherwise most of the area will be dry with warmer temps.
1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected mainly east of the KLBB/KPVW terminals this afternoon thus leaving KCDS with the highest risk. /issued 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ Initially blocky pattern with the slow moving upper low still in our vicinity but edging slowly to the east today and tonight.
Cooler conditions arrive Monday, but will be followed by warming temperatures later in the week.
Winds are fairly light as the area in transition zone between exiting system and approaching ridge complex from the west. with lee-side troughing beginning over the Front Range.
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A closed low over the southern plains will rejoin the prevailing flow today, eventually shifting southeastward towards the Gulf Coast. As this occurs, a trough will be building into the Great Lakes region. This Northeast trough will help establish northwest flow over the Midwest through much of the period. The cold front mentioned in the short term section above will have moved into southeast MO and southwest IL by Monday morning. A reinforcing PV anomaly will slide southeast around the building Great Lakes trough, which may help to spark a few showers/storms along the front across the far southern CWA late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon.
/issued 935 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ An amplified pattern aloft continues this morning with a broad trough across the northwest, ridging across the desert southwest, and another low and trough over the south-central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to ridge back westward, with its axis over the northern part of the Florida peninsula. Similar to yesterday, rain chances will be on the high side through the day. KPIE and KTPA still have the highest chances for light to moderate showers this morning, then thunderstorms will be possible for all sites starting this afternoon and continuing through the day. Weak high pressure will remain over the region for the next couple of days, with light winds and seas.
204 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The first 24 hours of the period will feature a weak, nearly stationary surface boundary north of the region, with a trof of low pressure aloft situated from the mid MS River Valley southwest into the southern Plains. Moist southerly flow around the eastern periphery of the upper low will continue to move north/northeast into the forecast area tonight into Monday.
The storms should wane this evening with the loss of diurnal heating, but like last night, the Low Level Jet might support isolated storms around throughout the night.
A weak upper trough will give way to an upper ridge.
551 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected for the first half of the week with a crossing cold front and upper low pressure. Scattered showers/isolated tstms are expected to continue overnight ahead of the approaching low/cold front. Eventually a slow moving cold front currently across Michigan will eventually drop to the southeast Monday afternoon. An upper low pressure system currently over southern Hudson Bay will drop into western Pennsylvania late Monday night, and each successive model run keeps the low across the northeastern United States longer than the previous model run.
1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A mid-upper level low will continue to move slowly eastward across Oklahoma today, before getting shunted southeastward late tonight into Monday, as stronger northern branch upper troughing digs into the western Great Lakes. Mid-level confluent flow on the northern periphery of the low circulation, will combine with daytime heating and anomalously high precipitable water content, resulting in a diurnal enhancement of convective coverage/intensity from about midday through this afternoon. Storms should diminish from northwest to southeast this evening, as the upper low begins the southeastward track. Drier air advection from northeasterly flow in the low-mid levels on Monday and strong insolation should allow highs in the mid-upper 80s.
213 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 148 PM CDT Early this afternoon a cold front stretches from near MKE west- southwest across far northern Illinois to near DVN. Coverage should increase some late this afternoon into the evening as the cold front drops across the CWA, though should stay widely scattered, so not all areas will see precipitation this evening. Anticipate frontal trough will become tied with a lake breeze with temperatures stabilizing early in the day across the northern counties, while farther south temperatures will warm into the 70s before falling back into the 60s along the lake front. Some models try to bring in low clouds as the cooler air plows into the antecedent moist airmass.
Lows will be in the lower 70s most areas. The sub-tropical ridge axis wl remain south of the forecast area the remainder of the week as a weak frontal boundary slides into the state from the N around Wed and slowly drifts across the peninsula Thu.
This second round of showers and storms will be associated with the passage of a cold front, which will be approaching from the northwest overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms that occur, but the best time for heavy rain should be tonight, as the cold front moves through. The best potential for any severe storms would likely be during the late morning and early afternoon hours, while the cold front is still lingering across the area. Tonights low temperatures are expected to only fall to above average values in the lower 60s. Once the cold front passes through early tomorrow morning, a cooler air mass will settle over the area, bringing us slightly below normal highs on Monday in the 70s.
1230 PM PDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Showers will continue today across southeastern Washington and north Idaho as an upper level trough heads into the region. Dry and warmer weather will arrive for the first half of the work week, followed by more unsettled and much cooler weather by the end of the week.
Temperatures will be around normal values to a bit cooler in areas of clouds and rain. An area of light convection was noted over southern AR associated with upper level short wave energy moving into the region, as it rotates around the upper low pressure system to the west of AR. Today Through Monday Night The upper low pressure system to the west of AR will lift short wave energy into AR, and develop isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models gradually move the upper low pressure system into AR by Monday morning, while on Monday weakens the low to mostly a low pressure trough over AR.
The efficient tropical rainfall processes we have seen produce some healthy rain amounts over portions of South Florida will continue virtually unabated through mid-week when the mid-level trough that the low will evolve into pushes across the state. Temperatures will continue to be somewhat moderated until some drier air pushes in behind the mid-level trough passage late in the week.
157 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front forming near Lake Erie will drop to Northern Ohio today, before traveling south across Ohio on Monday.
250 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from southern Lake Michigan to southern Iowa. Once the front drops into the Ohio River Valley, a cooler/drier airmass will arrive on Monday. High temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 80s, while dewpoints slip into the 50s. Pronounced upper trough over eastern Canada into the northeast U.
A weak cold front continues to bring gusty winds for the state this evening.
Current conditions across the area feature a decent ridge to valley temperatures difference currently across eastern Kentucky. Current pattern indicates a dome of high pressure just off the southeastern coast bringing gulf moisture northward into KY today and continuing through Monday morning. A weakened cold front will begin to push through Monday afternoon as pops will be on the decrease with a lessening thunder chance. A cold front is expected to be moving into KY from the northwest as the period begins.
559 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A slow moving upper low will bring several days of unsettled weather to the region with cooler temperatures poised to settle in through at least midweek. Even where it hasn't rained across the southern tier, the associated outflow boundary has brought much cooler air this evening. Scattered showers still expected overnight, as surface warm front pushes through. The upper pattern will feature a deepening upper trough that is destined to close off over the NERN and dominate the weather for much of the upcoming week. Highs generally in the 70s will be several degrees cooler than average.
225 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 An approaching warm front, will bring showers, and a few thunderstorms, to the region into tonight.
125 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Tonight will be warmer with increasing wind, especially over the mountains.
Have adjusted late morning PoPs to account for the current conditions to include cooler temperatures across portions of north Mississippi and southwest Tennessee.
403 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible until a cold front passes through the area on Monday. High pressure centered to the northwest of the area will spread in behind the front. Convection that has developed in the lower Ohio Valley will move east through the night. Cold front will move through the area tomorrow. After the front moves through, clouds will decrease as high pressure starts to build in.
WV imagery indicates a weak closed upper level low shifting slowly eastward across Oklahoma and north Texas. Near the surface, a weak cold front extends from southeast Nebraska southward across Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. The upper level low that helped trigger the thunderstorm activity yesterday is slowly progressing southward into the southern plains, taking most of the thunderstorm activity with it. Upper level ridging will develop over the Rockies and western high by tonight into Monday with highs rising into the mid to high 80s Monday.
318 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Upper low continues to shift east of the area with precipitable water values near 1. Surface pattern remains weak with a weak trough/front across central portions of Nebraska and Iowa with an isolated convection here too. Models are in good agreement in the large scale with the upper low slowly shifting southeast tonight, with mid and upper level drying and subsidence moving in. Somewhat elevated freezing levels and slow motions allowing for some heavier amounts to fall and will need to keep an eye on any training. Good insolation and somewhat warmer air working into for Monday brings and warm and dry day, with some temps likely reaching 90.
Outside of a few lingering showers across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this afternoon, a quiet and dry period can be expected through late Monday afternoon as weak upper level ridging remains across the Colorado Rockies and the Western High Plains. Seasonal temperatures can be expected again tonight with little change to the general air mass across the high plains. Upper level ridging will develop over the Rockies and western high by tonight into Monday with highs rising into the mid to high 80s Monday.
632 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A warm front, will bring showers, and a few thunderstorms, to the region this evening.
155 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moisture will increase in the southerly flow between high pressure off the coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
351 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Tight upper low evident mostly from 300-200mb was dropping south over Lubbock this afternoon complete with scattered deep convection immediately to its east. Greatest 0-3km CAPE has since departed south of the CWA ahead of this low, but low level buoyancy/vertical stretching potential is still sufficient for additional funnels or fleeting non-supercell tornadoes through early evening, especially near convective boundaries or the vort max itself. Following the passage of the mean upper trough overnight, height fields will recover on Monday ahead of stout upper ridging in drier N-NW flow. However, this trend will not arrive fast enough in our far eastern zones where weakly cyclonic flow is progged to linger behind the trough.
327 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first half of the week with the encroachment of a front and cold upper low pressure. Eventually a slow moving cold front currently across Michigan will eventually drop to the southeast Monday afternoon. An upper low pressure system currently over southern Hudson Bay will drop into western Pennsylvania late Monday night, and each successive model run keeps the low across the northeastern United States longer than the previous model run.
The 500mb pattern shows a large ridge stretching from the Baja Peninsula up through the 4-corners and eastern MT to Saskatchewan.
145 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Today has so far been another sunny day with generally light winds under the upper ridge. The ridge will remain overhead on Monday, but shifted slightly east of it's position today which should allow a better fetch of moisture and energy to move overhead. Dew points are progged to ramp up into the low to mid 50s across the plains (especially the Panhandle) with resultant instability values sufficient for vigorous t-storm develop along and east of the Laramie Range. Models continue to bring a cold front south across the area Monday evening and night.