Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 304 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/ Skies are cloudy across much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 80s. Low pressure was centered somewhere between Tupelo and Oxford in Mississippi at this time with a cold frontal extending from the low into northern Louisiana. The cold front will move out of the forecast area by this evening which should bring an end to the thunderstorm threat. Temperatures will get cooler tonight with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The cold front is expected to stall out Sunday over eastern Alabama which will keep at least a chance of showers over most of the forecast area east of the Mississippi River. Temperatures will remain on the cool side on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
835 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 An upper level low will drift slowly southeast across the Tennessee Valley tonight into Sunday. This is all associated with an upper level trough/low pressure system that is forecast to sag southeast into the Tennessee valley through tonight. The upper level low will continue to drift slowly southeast into the southeastern United States Sunday through Sunday night. Expect highs on Sunday mainly in the low to possibly mid 60s.
605 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Mid/upper level low is slowly moving southeastward early this afternoon and will move away from the area tonight. Look for highs mainly in the low 70s along with plentiful sunshine.
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis from southwest MN into northwest KS. Some patchy frost appears possible in the favored cooler areas of the CWA. Mixing to around 850 mb yields highs in the lower 70s most places.
627 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Trough that brought the rain yesterday has moved southeast to southern CONUS. A ridge is situated over the Plains which will remain for the rest of the weekend. After the trough fully exited the Plains, there is still residual moisture and cloud cover which has left the southeast quadrant of Kansas with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Cloud cover has begun to break through the day and will continue to do this evening as drier air moves in with the above mentioned ridge. Its axis over the area and no cloud cover with the cooler air temperatures could result in patchy frost across central Kansas as mentioned in the previous few decisions.
Tightening low pressure area over the southeast CONUS this afternoon with departing upper trough and associated convection shifting south and east of the region. Ridge axis centers over the CWA by Sunday morning with dewpoints falling into the lower 30s. Skies are mostly sunny, and with the stronger sun angle this time of year, opted for highs a few degrees warmer than consensus guidance into the lower 70s. Sunday night the lower boundary layer should be mixed as south winds increase through the night as low pressure deepens over the western high plains.
Models in good agreement with this high propagating SSEward, making it to northeastern Kansas by 12z Fri. With this high nearing Iowa, pressure gradient should begin to relax by around 06z Fri.
Some weaker conv is moving east and southeast into the lower RGV which may continue producing some small hail and wind gusts from 40 to 45 knots. As the cold front and associated 500 mb trough aloft clears through the region over the next few hours the conv will end from west to east. After the front clears through the region early this morning, surface and 500 mb ridging will build over the region through tonight and Friday maintaining pretty warm and dry conditions. High temps will likely be driven mainly by diurnal heating and some of the limited low level CAA moving in behind the cold front. Expect a little lower high temps on Fri as a little bit of a reinforcing short of cooler air moves into the region.
An approaching cold front is generating a line of convection currently positioned over middle TN.
Dry weather returns for Friday with temperatures a bit warmer than Thursday.
600 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Strong high pressure will remain off the SE coast today. A cold front will approach from the west tonight, then move slowly eastward across the area Friday. High pressure will build across the area Friday night through much of the weekend. Strong high pressure offshore combined with an approaching trough from the west, will bring increasing SW flow. The short wave trough and associated cold front will be weakening as it approaches tonight. The band of pre-frontal showers is expected to shift to the east through the Coastal Plain Friday morning/early afternoon, with the the cold frontal passage expected late afternoon into the evening. Will trend toward the warmer statistical guidance in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with a gusty WSW flow at 15-25 mph.
241 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Surface analysis depicts Low pressure in northeast AR, with the warm front extending along/just moving north of the Ohio river. We'll keep the Watch running as is, as PW's don't really drop off til after 00Z Friday, when the Low should be over near Louisville and the trailing cold front having swept across the bulk of the FA. The primary associated hazard of any convective updraft however, will be more vigorous expedition of the high PWats, ie locally heavy rainfall.
455 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Cold front working through eastern forecast area but cold air moving in behind the front is only marginal. Much cooler today with temps topping out from the lower 30s north to lower 40s south.
The approaching trough, coupled with the right entrance region of a strengthening anti-cyclonically curved jet streak will foster large-scale lift over the southeaster half of the region. This will allow for a brief break in rain tonight before an additional round moves in from the southwest beginning late this evening into the overnight hours as the main trough moves out of the Plains. Showers are expected to be widespread across the southeastern two- thirds of the CWA during the morning before the upper trough begins to move off to the east. Britt There will be another brief break in the rain on Friday with even some sunshine as high pressure move across Missouri and Illinois.
At the surface a weak area of low pressure was noted near Alice with a weak trough of low pressure extending to the north to near Tyler. 00z 300 MB wind analysis shows a splitting jet structure over East Texas with a speed max rotating around the base of the upper trough. SE TX will lie in the RRQ of a 140 kt between 06-09z and feel there will be a period of heavy rainfall with training of cells along the Highway 59 corridor late this evening into the overnight.
Around this time the low-level jet should begin to strengthen as well, perhaps reaching 40-50kt by 4 PM. The severe threat should end around 7 PM in the East, and the synoptic cold front will follow overnight with cooler and drier conditions.
330 AM MDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Active northwest flow aloft between a central CONUS upper trough and eastern Pacific upper ridge. Skies were mostly cloudy with temperatures from the low 20s to low 30s. Good agreement with the short range model/ensemble guidance progging the upper trough to push east of the Mississippi River Valley Friday. The eastern Pacific upper ridge will drift east toward the West Coast during this time. It will be breezy to windy Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.
Winds will veer to the west and increase tonight ahead of a cold front that will begin to move southward into the area around 12Z. /issued 216 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ Upper level trough is approaching west Texas with some instability cumulus clouds currently developing in the mountains and immediate adjacent plains. Expecting that an isolated shower or thunderstorm could be possible across much of the forecast area late this afternoon as the cold pool aloft associated with the upper trough drifts overhead (-22 C at 500 millibars) with low level heating enhancing instability. Looks like a return to quiet weather again Thursday and the next several days as this trough passes by.
Overnight period will be cloudy with patchy fog as abundant low level moisture remains trapped under a subsidence inversion as weak high pressure resides over area. Rain will spread across the region primarily during the late morning hours as a surface warm front approaches the area. Will have categorical/likely pops for the entire overnight period with the lowest pops in the far southeast. The rain will diminish to scattered rain showers Friday morning as the trailing cold front clears the region. By afternoon conditions will be dry with surface ridging.
437 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 As low pressure travels northeast along a front, it will cause the front to move across the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build in Friday and Friday night.
241 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Swath of heavier rainfall now travelling across south central Kentucky as an area of low pressure, now over the mid MS Valley, rides along a stationary front across the Ohio River Valley. Friday, we should see highs in the low/mid 50s under that cloud cover/lingering light rains.
346 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Green Bay to Columbia Missouri. On Friday, a trough moves east across northeast Minnesota and Upper Michigan.
Latest surface analysis shows weak high pressure over western and central North Dakota but with a cold front currently over the southern prairie provinces of Canada, poised to drop into the state today. Precipitation tapers off late tonight with significantly cold temperatures spilling into the region behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be around zero north to the lower 20s southwest.
High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week with above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.
The prevailing upper air pattern has changed little over the last 24 hours with broad intense ridging extending from the Yucatan into the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida and into the Atlantic. To the west, a slow moving trough continues an eastward track, expected to accelerate over the next 24 to 36 hours. Highs will rise into the low to mid 80s most areas, perhaps upper 80s inland. Tonight, the trough to our west will open up a bit and begin to move quickly eastward, allowing a cold front to enter the region.
A wind shift to the northwest will occur this morning across the area as a Pacific cold front moves through. An upper level trough to our west will move across our area tonight and Thursday. At the surface, low pressure over northwest Texas Thursday morning will move east-northeast and expect gusty northwest winds across are area during the afternoon on the backside. Also, mid and upper level subsidence will result in mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon.
Lee troughing deepens over the high plains Friday allowing for warmer downsloping flow.
130 AM MST Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure will build over the region for the remainder of the week supporting a continued steady warming trend. Afternoon high temperatures near 90 degrees will be common across the lower deserts late in the week. Ridging aloft continues to steadily build over the SW Conus in response to rather broad downstream troughing enveloping the entire eastern Conus.
427 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Under partly cloudy skies and steady southeast breezes, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 70s along the island chain. Surface wise, a formidable and tenacious ridge axis remains aligned across central Florida and the adjacent Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean.
335 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure offshore will continue to provide dry weather and above normal temperatures today. The chance for showers will increase tonight and into Friday ahead of a cold front, and thunderstorms may also be possible. The return of high pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures for the weekend. High pressure will remain offshore of the Carolinas with southwesterly winds continuing to push moisture into the region. Downslope flow and compressional heating will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. The cold front will cross the area Friday morning, then move offshore during the afternoon. Lows in the lower 60s Thursday night.
Stacked ridging over the Florida peninsula keeps our forecast dry. and this should help keep temps a few degrees warmer. normally warmer locations at night during east/SE flow (southern Pinellas county and Charlotte Harbor areas) will likely see temperatures in the middle 60s. The upper ridging begins to break down through the day Thursday, and this will allow a weak cold front to drop down into the state on Friday.
408 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 A longwave upper trough will move eastward into the MS Valley today. helping to push a cold front across AL into GA later today into tonight.
High pressure aloft will bring well above normal temperatures to the area today and Friday although there will be some coastal stratus and fog.
149 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Aviation Rain showers will develop very late tonight through Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley region Thursday. High pressure will bring fair weather Friday.
This morning, the upper pattern was defined by troughing across the central CONUS with ridging on both the east and west coasts. Vigorous convections was ongoing across parts of southeast Texas and Louisiana ahead of that trough, with generally benign weather occurring for much of the rest of the lower 48. Northwesterly flow will persist into the Friday night as the aforementioned trough progresses eastward and the ridge axis moves overhead.
408 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Weak high pressure will crest across the area this morning before sliding offshore. Low pressure will track to our west and down the Saint Lawrence Valley late today and tonight. The low will push a warm front north across the area late tonight followed closely by a trailing cold front on Friday.
400 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Cold front working through eastern forecast area but cold air moving in behind the front is only marginal. Much cooler today with temps topping out from the lower 30s north to lower 40s south.
1115 PM MDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Upper trough is sitting across the central CONUS with strong ridging developing across the western third. Ahead of it, warmer temps will advect in bringing some 40s and 40s to the CWA. A cold front will then push through Friday night behind the departing low. Some weak upslope enhancement is possible with an inch or two of snow accumulation across the higher northern Black Hills.
Expect the moisture to clear quickly later this morning as a Pacific cold front moves across the area. Expect slightly cooler temperatures overnight with lows in the mid 40s under mostly clear skies.
653 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 As low pressure travels northeast along a front, it will cause the front to move across the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build in Friday and Friday night.
403 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Upper trough to track south and east this morning out of the Rockies and into the Plains states.
High pressure off the southeast U. Low pressure riding up the front will further assist in generating a more concentrated area of rainfall late tonight into Thursday. Rain will then continue Thursday night as the parent upper trough advances from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. The upper trough will swing overhead Friday with high pressure building in at the surface, bringing an end to most of the rain.
The true Arctic cold front was moving southward across southern Canada early this morning. There remains quite a bit of spread amongst the models with the surface cyclone, but the general trend of late has been to shift northward closer to the ECMWF. The intensity of the snow north of the low will be impressive and heavy snowfall totals in excess of 6 inches are likely where the band sets up. The big story south of the low track will be the wind.
335 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure dominates the northern plains at this time. Precipitation develops along the lower level baroclinic zone from 925-850mb, firmly placed between todays high pressure system shifting to the central plains, and a cold high moving southeastward from south central Canada. Clouds and winds will be on the increase on Friday, especially in the afternoon hours ahead of a strong cold front moving through the area. Further to the east across southwest Minnesota, remaining snow cover and temperatures of 3-5 C will keep highs cooler. Strong cold front will move through the region Friday night.
a nearly stationary front draped along the Ohio River and a cold front pushing across Iowa. longwave troughing is evident over the central CONUS. High temperatures today will generally be in the lower 50s. with low temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 30s.
At 315 PM, a cold front continued to move eastward across the Northland. Temperatures warmed into the lower 50s ahead of the front, with gusty southwest winds. An Arctic cold front will move into the Northland from the northwest Thursday night and Friday morning. This cold front will continue a trend of colder weather going into the weekend.
221 AM MDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Current surface map places weak area o high pressure across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. with warm front lifting through western South Dakota. Low shifts into south central North Dakota Friday evening, with cold front dropping into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota.
A cold front will finally move through the state Thursday night and Friday followed by a weak ridge of high pressure with cooler and drier conditions to start the weekend.
145 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Strong high pressure will remain off the SE coast today. A cold front will approach from the west tonight, then move slowly eastward across the area Friday. High pressure will build across the area Friday night through much of the weekend. Strong high pressure offshore combined with an approaching trough from the west, will bring increasing SW flow. The short wave trough and associated cold front will be weakening as it approaches tonight. The band of pre-frontal showers is expected to shift to the east through the Coastal Plain Friday morning/early afternoon, with the the cold frontal passage expected late afternoon into the evening. Will trend toward the warmer statistical guidance in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with a gusty WSW flow at 15-25 mph.
Dry weather is in store for all areas today with highs in the lower 80s across the Hill Country to upper 80s across the southwest and Rio Grande Plains. Sunny skies are anticipated for Friday with high temperatures a bit cooler and ranging from the mid 70s across the Hill Country to the lower 80s across the area southwest.
1252 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 A cold frontal passage is expected before sunrise which will switch winds to the north, then becoming gusty shortly after sunrise. /issued 256 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ Clouds have begun to clear from west to east as the axis of the upper trough pushes eastward. The trough will bring behind it another front tomorrow afternoon. The front will be weak and should only help keep highs in the low to mid 60s. The upper flow will become more northwesterly as an upper ridge sets up over the west coast.
405 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Large area of convection continues from the SE TX Gulf coast, through central and N LA and into wrn MS this morning, as deep upper trof makes its way ewd across TX. Some lighter rain will likely continue through mid day before the lift associated with the upper trof moves e of our region. These should gradually diminish/push ewd through the day today, leaving our region dry, as high pressure begins to build in at the sfc by this evening.
This is in response to an upper-level low/trough that is passing over Oklahoma from west to east.
Update regarding the rest of this evening/tonight: Would hesitate to call it a "major overhaul", as we were not expecting much precip to begin with, but did make some tweaks to the earlier-issued forecast through the rest of tonight (through 7AM Thursday): 1) Tried to refine/concentrate the highest rain chances (PoPs) within the narrow corridor currently evident on radar and tracking southeast mainly within the southeast half of the CWA. Upper level trough axis is making its way across the Central Plains. Mid-level frontogenetic forcing still giving us showers in the south/southeast ahead of the cold front. More showers behind cold front, with stratus. Still looks like the cold front will barrel through late Friday night and precip looks like more of a sure bet somewhere in the CWA and for now looks more focused for central and southwest areas.
Ridging aloft off the West Coast continues build into the region from the west. *** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *** A high pressure ridge will remain fairly strong over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Thursday and Friday.
An upper level trough across the Plains will slide into the Mississippi Valley today while at the surface a cold front will move into the southeast.
The thermal trough continues as an area of high pressure builds offshore. Today will again be warmer than yesterday for most areas of southern Oregon and northern California. The Chetco Effect will occur again today as guidance is looking to push the high for Brookings into the 70s. This warming trend will also coincide with a drying trend where the mid to upper slopes and ridges will start seeing moderate overnight recoveries as easterly winds help to dry things out. Yesterday, all models indicated that the thermal trough would continue. This disturbance, however, will be enough to break up the thermal trough and bring temperatures back down a few degrees and bring a pause to the Chetco effect.
533 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Strong high pressure will remain off the SE coast today. A cold front will approach from the west tonight, then move slowly eastward across the area Friday. High pressure will build across the area Friday night through much of the weekend. Strong high pressure offshore combined with an approaching trough from the west, will bring increasing SW flow. The short wave trough and associated cold front will be weakening as it approaches tonight. The band of pre-frontal showers is expected to shift to the east through the Coastal Plain Friday morning/early afternoon, with the the cold frontal passage expected late afternoon into the evening. Will trend toward the warmer statistical guidance in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with a gusty WSW flow at 15-25 mph.
558 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure dominates the northern plains at this time. Precipitation develops along the lower level baroclinic zone from 925-850mb, firmly placed between todays high pressure system shifting to the central plains, and a cold high moving southeastward from south central Canada. Clouds and winds will be on the increase on Friday, especially in the afternoon hours ahead of a strong cold front moving through the area. Further to the east across southwest Minnesota, remaining snow cover and temperatures of 3-5 C will keep highs cooler. Strong cold front will move through the region Friday night.
A cold front currently generating a line of convection over middle TN will slowly push east and into the Southern Appalachian Region this TAF period.
956 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a cold front located roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor. /issued 310 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/ Temperatures this afternoon ranging from the upper 80s across the I-30 corridor to the lower 90s across deep East Texas. Temperatures on Sunday to be much cooler across the ArklaTex with highs ranging from the mid 70s across to the Ozarks, the mid 80s across I-20, and lower 90s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana. Upper-level flow to become zonal on Sunday as ridge begins to flatten across northern Mexico.