Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REAMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AND TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE HARD TO FIND. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
358 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS TO BETWEEN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. GRIDDED HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS S CENTRAL LWR MI MAY BE TOO COOL IF OVERNIGHT PRECIP/CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND/OR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CLEARING ALLOWS FOR BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED INSOLATION. NAM/WRF/SREF WOULD SUGGEST WARM FRONT HANGING UP ALONG/NORTH OF US-6.
235 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
Also, dry air will stay in place in the low levels. By Friday afternoon we will actually become rather unstable at the surface, with a small upper vort approaching from the southwest as upper ridging drifts slightly eastward. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen slightly in the afternoon as we reach convective temperatures in the lower 80s. High temperatures will be in the lower and middle 80s. Friday night deep southwest flow will continue along with increasing moisture and a very weak upper trof riding up the west side of the southeast U. ridge, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS INCREASE LATEST. WENT WITH THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MOSTLY DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
302 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
Much cooler temps expected with this ridge which will remain in place thru Tues.
1253 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO THE BULK OF THE REMAINING QPF WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THIS WAS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE GOING FORECAST SO I WENT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS WHICH WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS PROVIDED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MOIST AND UNSETTLED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY.
Flash Flood Watch west of a Sweetwater to Junction line A large upper low will move over the southwest CONUS tonight enhancing the southwest flow aloft over the forecast area. After morning lows in the mid 60s tomorrow, will see afternoon highs in the lower 80s with some clearing from the west through the afternoon. Following tonight's potentially heavy rainfall, we remain under southwest flow aloft Friday/Friday night as the main upper level low moves east into New Mexico, and the dryline backed well to the west of our area once again.
THE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT/TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM INDIANA THROUGH THE TEXAS GULF COAST. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS STILL DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND SETTLE IN OVER FLORIDA. WITH THE SURFACE BASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONCE THE ERIKA REMNANTS WASH OUT.
337 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 An upper ridge will dominate the weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas at least through the Labor Day weekend. A persistent weakness underneath the ridge may result in isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas the next few days but daily coverage will likely remain below 10 percent.
ONE OF WHICH IS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA WHICH IS FEEDING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER INDIANA. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN THE STRONG RIDGE AT 800/700MB CENTERED OFF THE SE US COAST.
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND PROG THE COLD FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH MINNESOTA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN USA AND THE LEE TROF JUST TO THE W.
639 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
552 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK. DESPITE BEING A LITTLE COOLER THEN YSTDY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT. A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY.
326 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK. DESPITE BEING A LITTLE COOLER THEN YSTDY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT. A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY.
117 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE. MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS CAN INITIATE CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EAST OF THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST. THIS FEATURES WILL HELP RE-ENFORCE A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW JERSEY TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BRIEFLY LATE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE AT 22Z. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS. COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO NRN ZONES AT THIS HOUR. SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RESULTING AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUE NIGHT THAN PAST NIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA.
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S.
326 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 Upper ridge centered over SE TX this morning extends west across the region. This ridge will remain over the area through the week. Late in the week an upper trough will move in off the NW coast but will do little to displace the ridge. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 90s for the Permian Basin. Precip chances will continue to favor the higher elevations.
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL FOLLOW EACH DAY DEEPENING A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE TO NW WA.
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. EXPECTING A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING CHANGES TO NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS AND SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS JUST OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
AN EXCEEDINGLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING AND EXTREMELY POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION AS THE BASE OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. A SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE RIDGES MAY ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH INITIATION FOR UPDRAFTS TO BUMP PAST 12 KFT. SOME LOW END POPS WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES FOR THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO A BIT OF A WARMER START TO THE DAY TODAY. AS THE LOW OPENS AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS.
A few of the high-res models have the low strengthening as it moves onshore, however, the area of thunderstorms is very weak and disorganized this morning.
A weak cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air Wednesday along with a chance for showers and gusty winds. A cooler and showery weather pattern will linger over the region late week and into the weekend. Long-wave trof pattern continues to influence this portion of the forecast and beyond. Forecast temps with such a trof in place should remain on the cool side of normal for this time of year.
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLC. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COUPLED WITH AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE RIDGETOPS HAS MAINTAINED A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE TODAY. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ARRIVING ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO EJECT FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
318 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOTED FROM INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OZARKS. AM EXPECTING A HOT AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. BEHIND THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
WITH THE MID 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS HANGING AROUND IN SOME LOCATIONS AND SUBSIDENCE SETTING UP WITH THE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. WITH A DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE 60 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED BOTH NIGHTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER AS WELL. WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID- SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE.
EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH UP/ AS OF WRITING. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE GREATEST. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD. IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13 THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE TROF BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE TROF AXIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
110 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BRIEFLY LATE WEEK. ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 UPPER MIDWEST UNDER WARM AND A BIT MUGGY CONDITIONS AT 2 AM DUE TO SOUTH WINDS AND UPPER RIDGING. AREA TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOWS RIDGING TO STAY IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE. AREA DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY.
237 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 Generally quiet weather continues for the rest of the week with a persistent upper level trough over the West Coast and downstream ridging over the eastern U. This will keep the primary flow of Pacific moisture and precipitation chances streaming across the southwest states and into the High Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND AN ASSOCIATED TROF XTNDS INTO NRN CA AND SHARPENS UP A BIT. THE LOWER HGTS WILL LIKELY KNOCK ANOTHER 1 OR 2 DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS BUT OTHERWISE BOTH WED AND THU WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
319 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE RUNNING WITH OVERALL SLIGHT POPS MAINLY MOUNTAINS WITH RIBBONS OF MORE CHANCE NATURE COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS COULD PUSH HIGHS ABOVE 90 SE AND WELL INTO THE 80S ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE OPENING UPPER WAVE SLIPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND HELPS LOWER 5H HEIGHTS UNDER STRONG SURFACE RIDGING. THIS FEATURES WILL HELP RE-ENFORCE A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW JERSEY TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY WITH MOISTURE HIGH AND THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. BEST LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS AS IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO HAVE FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
606 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
601 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.
354 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEFORE THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S AND FAIRLY WET SOILS. WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE LOCAL VICINITY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SIT ATOP THE LOCAL AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
/ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/ TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
142 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS.
850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
443 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING.