Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are already in the lower 60s across portions of Southwest Tennessee and Northwest Mississippi. Do not expect any thunderstorms until tonight with the line of convection associated with the cold front. Temperatures are mainly in the low to middle 50s. A deep trough continues to deepen over the Desert Southwest with zonal flow across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. Over the next 24 hours the trough will shift into the Southern Plains resulting in strong cyclogenesis over western portions of Texas and Oklahoma. This will strengthen the southerly flow/warm advection across the Midsouth increasing our chance of rain showers and ushering in higher dewpoints ahead of the approaching trough. but should fall back into the low to middle 50s by morning.
200 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Low level moisture from snowmelt, lack of mixing and cooler temperatures are leading to dense fog development along the James Valley today. Tonight, it appears the low stratus/fog will overspread areas along, north and east of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River.
Low level moisture from snowmelt, lack of mixing and cooler temperatures are leading to fog development along the James Valley today. Quiet to begin the short term period with weak high pressure over the forecast area. For today, weak pressure pattern remains with slightly cooler temperatures aloft than yesterday. Highs today from the low to mid 20s around the Turtle Mountains, to the low to mid 30s southwest. Low level surface convergence will continue to keep the lower boundary layer moist. Models continue to pull the lower stratus over Manitoba southward today over eastern ND and potentially expand it westward into eastern portions of central ND.
A broad trough was moving onto the Pacific northwest coast this afternoon. The upper trough crashes across the state Monday and Monday night, with the core of the energy sliding across southern Canada.
327 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 The main story for the next day will be developing low pressure system across the central Plains. This low will bring heavy snow and strong winds to north central Nebraska through Monday afternoon. Currently temperatures are hovering around freezing which has resulted in some light rain/freezing drizzle/freezing rain across portions of the I-80 corridor. Monday: The low pressure system will slowly push east throughout the morning.
High pressure will briefly return on tonight, followed by a weak storm grazing northern Utah on Monday. A subtle vorticity maxima along the back side of the departing low is noted crossing northern Utah, and along with orographic forcing is helping to maintain pockets of light snow across the higher terrain.
A pre-frontal trough will move through the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande this afternoon resulting in clearing. The inversion across portions of the northeast CWA is expected to erode mid to late afternoon as the pre-frontal trough approaches from the west and deeper forcing in the base of the upper trough clip the CWA. Farther south we anticipate the inversion to hold and then drier air to filter into the area with the pre-frontal trough. The actual cold front will catch up to the pre-frontal trough and move through the CWA later evening and overnight with clearing skies.
Will continue to monitor, but will continued southern push to the higher snow amounts, they may need to be cancelled early. Otherwise, with highlight the low stratus/patchy fog layer sliding in from the north tonight. As of 9Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over the four corners region. Moisture advection, along with a 100+ knot upper level jet ahead of the trough is producing snow over southwestern SD this morning. While pcpn is moving east-northeast, it is running into drier air in the lower level with little pcpn so far in this CWA.
300 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Wx map shows low pressure over the Central Plains, with high pressure off the Southeast United States, giving our region a south to southeast flow. The other issue tonight will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front, which is expected to move though towards daybreak Monday.
241 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 A long-lasting light snow event is anticipated across the Northern Rockies, with most snow concentrated over the high terrain along the Montana-Idaho border.
903 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 Upper ridge was building in from the west as deep upper low over eastern Colorado kicks into the midwest. Expect similar highs today compared to yesterday, if not a degree or two cooler. It still does not look like much of the area will see precip outside of the higher terrain.
To the southeast of the heavy snow band a switch over to freezing drizzle is possible Monday evening as colder air works into the region.
218 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 A narrow upper ridge passes over eastern Montana tonight for a continuation of clear skies resulting in seasonally cold minimum temperatures. Light wind will not interfere much with mixing, therefore patchy freezing fog is again possible. By Monday morning clouds will move in from the west as a result of an upper trough and weak cold front. Slightly increased winds means slightly warmer highs, but just above normal.
1205 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 A cold front has pulled up stationary in the northern Texas Panhandle. Winds at GUY are expected to remain around 10 knots until the next stronger cold front moves through toward sunset. Then the cold front will move through late this afternoon and evening turning the winds around to the northwest. /Issued 432 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/ Closed mid-level low pressure center crosses northern part of forecast area this afternoon, producing strong winds and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Pacific cold front arrives this morning, with strong winds commencing by noon. Canadian cold front arrives late this afternoon shifting winds to northwest. In spite of strong winds and sub-freezing temperatures tonight, wind chill values are not expected to fall into advisory or warning thresholds.
338 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through tonight.
Visible satellite imagery indicates cloud cover lifting to th north and east as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead. Winds just off the surface will be in 15- 25 kt range as cold front and upper level trough approach from the west. On Monday, low level winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens with the cold front near the Mississippi River early in the day. The winds at the 850 mb level will range from the 45-60 kt range and a wind advisory may be needed for the higher elevations for late Monday into Monday night. The highest amounts will be across the Plateau and should range from roughly 0.
219 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Bermuda High pressure combined with tropical moisture will bring heat and high humidity this week, with occasional torrential rainfall associated with daily thunderstorms. However, weak mid-level troughing will persist into Tuesday, thus scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again during the day. Highs during Tuesday will likely range from around 90 in the ILM and LBT areas to the lower 90s across the Pee Dee (upper 80s Grand Strand) but these numbers will be highly dependent the convective coverage.
258 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast today. Mid level clouds are becoming more widespread this afternoon with a cold front approaching the region from the north. This will allow for even less coverage of showers than today, but the higher elevations of PA/WV/MD should remain a favored location for any showers that do develop.
Upper level high pressure has begun to setup across the desert southwest and this feature will remain stationary throughout the rest of the week. Meanwhile, over the northern Pacific, troughing is in place with no signs of changing anytime soon.
251 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 The forecast continues to remain not so exciting as an upper high dominates to our west.
333 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A weak cold front bisecting northern Ohio will continue south of the area this evening. High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and Tuesday night.
611 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast today. Cold front will continue to sag south this evening. The exception may be the eastern ridges, where enough moisture may linger for isolated convection.
142 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Weak forcing regime over the area as the region remains on the edge of an approaching western CONUS ridge. Convection today will be driven by elevated heat source regions able to break the cap over the west, with an old outflow/trough providing a focus for convection across scentral SD. Otherwise, hot conds will increase through mid week as the western CONUS ridge shifts east. Warm layer aloft will cap convection Wed, with the ridge retreating enough per NW flow impulses to support convection chances once again, Thur through Sat, along with âcoolerâ conds. With a broad upper ridge building over the Rockies and high plains mid week, conditions will become hot and dry.
Acrs the far southeast plains, where the lower levels are more moist, there could be a better chance for one or two severe storms with hail an inch or larger in diameter and wind gusts around 60 mph. On Tue the upper ridge will build back over the area.
Upper ridge still the main story this week with temperatures continuing to climb. Moisture wrapping around the center of the high still looking to reach East Idaho by mid week, with the additional humidity a contributing factor to the overnight lows.
Subtropical ridging extending from California to Texas south into Mexico has led to another hot and dry afternoon over South Central Texas with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s along with some lower 100s in the Rio Grande Plains. High temperatures may be a degree cooler tomorrow as the ridge builds further over Utah as a weak trough digs into Oklahoma, but decided to keep them near today's highs as the consensus of model guidance has continued to have a slight cool bias. The Texas Tech WRF is realistic in how it handles the evolution of this convection, which dissipates as it moves into the area due to increasing stability from the loss of daytime heating and lingering effects of subsidence from the ridge.
Subtropical ridge builds and gives us a warming trend the potential for a storm or two, but nothing big, the way it looks, and potentially a small cool down behind a front on Saturda Any storms that develop and move in look later in the evening than previously though, and short-term models are leaning toward possibly no thunderstorms at all.
For the 4th of July, hot and dry conditions are expected as a strong ridge of high pressure begins to build across the region. Cannot rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorm in the mountains, but with strong ridging and warming temps aloft should keep a lid on convection.
131 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A weak cold front will sag southward across the region today.
The upper high will build northward during the week.
328 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 High pressure remains centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon with a light wind regime across the area.
559 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will drift south through the forecast area this evening. mid 60s in south and around 60F to the north given cooler/drier postfrontal air and less cloud cover. Temps and dewpoints may be a degree or two cooler but temp/moisture advections not particularly strong and will be similar to today.
110 PM PDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will bring warmer weather and a shallower marine layer this week.
150 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The high moisture could also help support localized flooding if training happens to develop. A broad upper trough will continue over the eastern CONUS with an upper ridge over the western states.
332 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 The ridge of high pressure centered to the northeast of the region will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through the early portion of this week. The highest chances of rain will be located across interior and western areas mainly during the afternoon hours. High temperatures during the early portion of the week will be generally near 90 degrees across the east coast metro areas to the lower 90s across interior and west coast sections.
242 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 High pressure will build over the region through mid week.
1107 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Convection ongoing from the Blkhls into scntrl SD early this morning with upper trof moving overhead. Lingering instability could lead to a few storms again on Tuesday, but upper ridge expected to amplify across the wrn Conus and bring drier and hotter wx mid to late week.
It's possible that convective bndrys from this complex may affect the TXK/TYR terminal around 12Z, which could focus sct convection and scatter out the low MVFR cigs expected to develop late. Have not inserted mention of VCTS/VCSH given the low confidence, but later shifts will continue to monitor and may insert mention in later forecasts.
Wed & Wed Night: A weak sfc-850mb low begins to develop over the KS/MO border from which a weak trof would extend into central OK. Thu-Fri Night: Broad & strong ridging spreading east across the Great Plains will keep the weather quiet. Details are sketchy as there are differences among models with respect to positioning of strong mid-upper high that should cover the southern plains.
318 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes this aftn will slowly move to the east through the aftn of the 4th. With the ridge overhead tonight should see cool temps inland again tonight. Lowest readings in the lower 40s will be over the interior east where there will be mostly clear skies. For the 4th, since the high pressure ridge will be more over eastern Lk Superior to Lower Michgan expect more of a Lk Michigan lake breeze compared to today.
Breezy winds will continue this afternoon, as a dry trough moves through the Northern Rockies.
607 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front is pushing south across the state this afternoon. A cold front will pass early in the weekend and dry things out.
350 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front is pushing south across the state this afternoon. A cold front will pass early in the weekend and dry things out.
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Early morning satellite imagery shows us that the large ridge to our west has moved in across the center of the Nation, with a weak trough burrowing through the ridge axis across the Central and Southern Plains. While this has pushed the general storm track north with the prevailing jet stream, and allowed seasonally warm and muggy temperatures to dominate, the weakness under the ridge has been more than sufficient to get convection going in areas from the Central High Plains into the southern Plains resulting in a couple of convective complexes move across the region early this morning.
This activity has been confined to northwest Central Alabama, as weak ridging and warm temps aloft have prevented activity across southern areas.
319 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will push offshore this evening and will be followed by high pressure building in from the west through Tuesday.
402 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A trough of low pressure remains near the coast tonight.
333 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Upper high over northern Mexico drifting north to the Four Corners region Tuesday.
East to West Oriented Weak High pressure ridge remains in place at the surface and aloft from the Northern GOMEX across the Florida Peninsula and into the Wrn Atlantic. Ridge breaks down slightly Fri/Sat as trof/old frontal boundary moisture tracks into the SE U. This will also allow for Max Temps to slip closer to normal with highs in the lower/middle 90s inland and upper 80s/near 90 at the coast with Heat Indices in the 100-105 range.
219 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Weak cold front over New York state will reach the Mason Dixon Line tonight and enter northern Virginia Tuesday. Low pressure over Arkansas will slowly track east and bring additional moisture into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday.
And with this is the high probability of damaging winds and heavy rainfall, and will explicitly mention these possibilities in the zones tonight.
Mid-level ridging across the southern tier CONUS will continue to dominate the pattern. For Independence Day, a short- wave trough aloft moving through the Red River valley will induce a very modest weakness in the pattern locally, but 1000-500mb thicknesses and H85 temps remain essentially unchanged.
246 PM MST Mon Jul 3 2017 Temperatures will remain above normal through this week as high pressure predominates across the Desert Southwest. A gradual increase in moisture will lead to isolated thunderstorm development over mainly the higher terrain of Arizona through midweek. The threat of thunderstorms will then expand westward into the lower deserts late this week and weekend. Thus not anticipating large areas of strong outflow affecting the lower deserts - just some weak outflow later tonight which won't have much of an effect.
These pieces of energy/impulses are from a nearly stationary trough across the central CONUS. High temperatures will be cooler up north with better cloud and precipitation coverage. As you move south expect temperatures to be a bit warmer. Should be quiet overnight with lows around 70 areawide, apart from the cooler temps across the higher terrain.
453 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes this aftn will slowly move to the east through the aftn of the 4th. With the ridge overhead tonight should see cool temps inland again tonight. Lowest readings in the lower 40s will be over the interior east where there will be mostly clear skies. For the 4th, since the high pressure ridge will be more over eastern Lk Superior to Lower Michgan expect more of a Lk Michigan lake breeze compared to today. High pressure in place will extend pleasant wx right through the evening for fireworks viewing.
118 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather through the Fourth of July.
151 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The high moisture could also help support localized flooding if training happens to develop. A broad upper trough will continue over the eastern CONUS with an upper ridge over the western states.
Convection will diminish rapidly after sunset with overnight lows expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
232 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front is pushing south across the state this afternoon. A cold front will pass early in the weekend and dry things out. The latter part of the work week should be more active with another trough swinging through the Southern Great lakes region and the OH valley.
149 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will drift south through the forecast area this afternoon. This will occur as lake aggregate high pressure builds southeast through the Great Lakes lakes region, effectively shunting the increasingly diffuse frontal zone southwest. The last several model cycles have trended more aggressive with this high pressure resulting in a mainly dry fcst, save for areas southwest of US 30 where a low chance for a late day isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out.
236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will drift south through the forecast area this evening. mid 60s in south and around 60F to the north given cooler/drier postfrontal air and less cloud cover. Temps and dewpoints may be a degree or two cooler but temp/moisture advections not particularly strong and will be similar to today.
257 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Warm front has lifted a bit further north into west central Kansas, as noted in the weak reflectivity extending from near Syracuse- Garden-Dodge and through Greensburg into south central Kansas. Based on the convective allowing models interpretations, the more scattered to numerous severe convective storms this evening should be primarily confined to the warm front region and warm sector, across south central Kansas counties and into western Oklahoma.
108 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The high moisture could also help support localized flooding if training happens to develop. A broad upper trough will continue over the eastern CONUS with an upper ridge over the western states.
215 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 High pressure will build over the region through mid week.
The global-scale models remained quite similar versus their respective solutions regarding the evolution of an expansive area of high pressure to be established over the western/central CONUS Tuesday and continuing into the upcoming weekend.
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather Forecasts Temperatures will remain above normal through this week as high pressure predominates across the Desert Southwest. A gradual increase in moisture will lead to isolated thunderstorm development over mainly the higher terrain of Arizona through midweek. The threat of thunderstorms will then expand westward into the lower deserts late this week and weekend. Thus not anticipating large areas of strong outflow affecting the lower deserts - just some weak outflow later tonight which won't have much of an effect.
Aloft - A couple of short wave troughs move across the lower Mississippi Valley and thorough the Deep south as ridging from the Atlantic to FL then out across the Gulf of Mexico remains nearly in place but weakens slightly. Surface - Atlantic high pressure extends west to the Gulf of Mexico with an axis that meanders through central FL. The deep layer ridging bisecting the area maintains a pattern of light low level flow and a moist column.
The 500 mb ridge that was overhead of SE Texas will begin to weaken tonight and Tuesday as an upper trough begins to dig into the Southern Plains. For Tuesday very isolated showers are possible once again as the ridge slowly breaks down.
1135 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Low pressure will ripple along a cold front as they push southeast across the region tonight. Clouds and a few lingering showers are expected on Monday along with cooler temperatures.
A weak cold front may bring some light North Bay showers tonight that will end by sunrise.
1116 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 MVFR/IFR cigs beginning to develop across the area with the lower ceilings developing over northern TAF sites and MVFR cigs further south. Otherwise, expect lows in the lower 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs today will be much cooler than yesterday, and around 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early November. Mdls are in good agreement at the beginning of the period, however, the NAM quickly becomes an outlier with the approach of the srn trof currently over the nwrn U. As it does, enuf WAA may accompany the fnt to generate precip, but have kept PoPs on the low side for now. Tilly The cold front has moved well south of the region and MVFR stratus blankets much of eastern MO and IL in the northerly flow in the wake of the front. High pressure currently centered in northern Plains will broaden and slide east over the next 24 hours and this will result in veering low level flow to more northeasterly and then easterly.
/Issued 444 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ The backdoor cold front and associated low level clouds played havoc with temperatures today across the central and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the far northeast Texas Panhandle. Max temperature forecasts will be a headache again on Monday and very heavily dependent on where the cold front ends up.