Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
233 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Ridging over the area today is giving us a neutral flow regime. The regime will change for the work week as the ridge started to push north. Ridging overhead will keep winds light with seabreeze coming into coastal sites in the late afternoon and evening hours. winds will remain generally below 10 knots and will shift to the east tomorrow as the ridge pushes to the north.
Plains trough will swing to our north and northeast tonight into Monday, and will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms after midnight through the day Monday from the northwest. CAMs have gotten more aggressive with convection in the afternoon as an embedded disturbance within the trough helps out diurnal forcing in the afternoon for some heavier showers and thunderstorms. 25 inch range, and freezing levels near 15kft, heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a possibility, especially if a few heavy showers train over the same location in the afternoon.
An upper level trough continues to move through central Kansas today and with subsidence behind the trough we are seeing quiet weather conditions throughout the day. Lows will range from the mid 60s in the west to the lower 70s in the east. With northwest winds continuing aloft we could once again have some haze in the sky but with drier air in the afternoon we should get efficient heating as highs get into the lower 100s.
After nightfall, the maintenance of a tongue of moisture advection along/ahead of the incoming/passing trof will keep the shower/storm chance going, albeit perhaps waned some from the strength of the diurnal convection. Monday will be another convectively active day pops wise as the residual combo of high humidity, daytime warming, and still lingering energy passage from the primary long wave trof works together to heighten pops again.
The only good news is that high temperatures have remained several degrees cooler than forecast due to the smoke. A trough can be seen to our northwest and will move across areas to our north tomorrow. The trough may bring a quick shower/storm to the eastern Uintahs in the afternoon but outside of that area, partly cloudy and smoky conditions remain. Our CWA will be on the fringe of a deep trough that will be centered over the central Plains. High pressure will start setting up though it will be very disjointed to start with. Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream up from the south but the higher pressure over us will keep the heavier precip over AZ and NM.
133 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure will shift eastward overnight as the upper level low that's currently producing severe weather up in the Midwest and Great Lakes slides NE. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with near normal overnight lows reaching the lower 70s and the chance of showers and a few storms starting tomorrow morning. With high pressure still off to our east, SW flow will continue to pull moisture into the region and allow for scattered showers/storms during the afternoon hours.
Another reason includes the lingering clouds from this morning, keeping our temps cooler than anticipated and shielding the area from gaining any extra needed CAPE to get storms rolling this early afternoon. Morning lows will sit in the lower 70s ahead of the hottest day of the week as ridging develops over the Great Plains on Monday. While the forecast area will not be in the heart of the ridge center, surface to mid-level flow is expected to keep pulling in warm, moist air in from the south.
257 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 A mid level trough was moving slowly across eastern Kansas this afternoon with a vorticity lobe moving into the base of the trough at 1930Z. Monday continues to look hot with weak ridging into the central Plains and thermal axis expanding northward across central and eastern Kansas.
Rising heights aloft and moisture pooling ahead of the next cold front will promote a quite hot & muggy day. Dewpoints were trended to the high end of guidance, and temperatures should top out solidly in the upper 90s to low 100s in most spots. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of an approaching cold front late Monday afternoon. Convective details remain very uncertain as models have been generally struggling to resolve the low-level moisture and resulting instability.
Dewpoints across much of the area will be hard to bear today with values expected to remain in the mid 70s and temps still looking like they will reach the lower 90s across the area.
Upper level ridging and ample amounts of dry air aloft will prevent very little if any convection this afternoon. Temps are still well on track to reach the lower 90s, with some mid 90s not out of the question across the southern counties. Rain chances still look to go up during the day on Monday with forecast trends continuing to indicate increased moisture from the south and upper level lift rounding the base of the trough axis moving off to our north. Temps should easily reach the low to perhaps mid 90s once again Monday afternoon.
We're continuing to see bands of convection being forced as impulses and old MCVs work around the upper trough that is currently about have way across the forecast area. We'll need to maintain some PoPs until we're well onto the backside of the upper trough and being influenced by large scale subsidence as is occuring over the Dakotas.
No update needed for today with Heat Indices in the low 100s.
With the exception of some hazy skies, a nice day in store with high temps still expected to reach the lower to mid 90s with PDC around 100. With added downsloping from any SW component to the wind from the high terrain in NM, temperatures will warm up quite a bit with many locations at or over 100.
Winds will remain elevated tonight at FST and MAF due to the low-level jet. Broad upper ridging on Monday will keep us warm, although temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to Sunday. Instability will be minimal Monday afternoon so storms are most likely to develop across the higher terrain out west.
Mid level ridging will continue to dominate, allowing subsidence to keep PoPs next to nil. A 1018-1020 mb high across the northeast Gulf combined with an area of low pressure over the Southern Plains will maintain a moderate to tight pressure gradient over Deep South Texas early this week, bringing breezy to windy conditions through the rest of today and for the majority of tomorrow.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower 70s. As this happens, upper level ridging will build into the region. Temperatures on Monday are expected to reach into the lower 90s with humid conditions. Heat and humidity will headline much of the week ahead with daily high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees.
An upper trough from the Plains will push through the area bringing more showers through Monday. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the low 90 with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
335 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 With a ridge aloft and weak lapse rates. The ridge will flatten some overnight as a short wave extending into the OH Valley pushes to the east. Have likely PoPs across portions of north GA each day as weak lee troughing along the Appalachians could help focus convection across our northern counties.
Finally most of the lower clouds and CU have dissipated but still pockets of lower clouds remain. 50-70kt 500 mb jet on the southeast side of the upper low will nose into central ND and south central MB 21z-00z period. Looks like initiation based on various CAMs to be in that area around Rugby, Rolla 22z-23z and then move northeast with other storms forming as cold front swings east. Zonal flow aloft through mid-week, and the ridge out west returns to dry us out again.
The cold front has now reached southwest Montana and southeastern Idaho, with thunderstorms popping up ahead of the front and impacting Silver Bow and Granite counties at the time this discussion was written. Monday morning could bring with it the chance for fog, particularly in areas that experienced the heaviest rainfall from today's cold front.
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure passes overhead tonight, setting up offshore through the rest of the week. Calm and mostly clear conditions overnight as high pressure overnight. Drying out after a wet past week continues Monday, with high pressure sliding offshore. A drier pattern is expected through mid week, as high pressure builds into the area from offshore. By late week rain chances will increase as high pressure retreats slightly and warm moist flow increases.
1240 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry forecast continues today, under upper ridging. Gusty south winds will continue with a lee trough to the west. Temperatures at night will be mild, in the lower to mid 70s.
/Tonight through Monday night/ Air temperatures are running in the low to mid 90s with dew points a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday.
212 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through mid to late week. Quiet wx so far this afternoon, thanks in part to an upper s/w ridge moving across the area, coupled with relatively drier nw flow aloft. Lows tonight in the lower 70s. Look for increasing rain chances by late afternoon across the Piedmont as the short wave trough currently moving across the Ohio Valley passes by to our north and an associated trailing shear axis crosses the region.
227 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 A strong cold front will continue to move eastward through the region tonight. Expect a band of rain and thunderstorms to accompany the cold front. A strong cold front continues to move eastward through the region. Overnight lows will get cold along the Rocky Mountain Front and higher valleys of Southwest MT, with some locations going below freezing.
1207 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure extending from the Gulf Coast to the Desert Southwest will continue to hold subtropical moisture at bay in the near term.
Besides the heat, storm chances return to the area as an approaching upper trough moves eastward across the northern Great Plains. Convection should initiate along a cold front draped across western Nebraska Monday afternoon, and push eastward through the evening before stalling out late Monday night into the overnight hours, generally west of Highway 81.
317 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Isolated showers have popped up over our eastern counties where the models depict cooler mid level temps this afternoon. Skies are mostly clear early this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
The cold front continues to move through eastern Oregon and central Idaho this morning. Cooler temperatures expected today and again on Monday, with warming temperatures then expected. A cold front will generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today mainly across the central Idaho mountains.
Currently, with the exception of some lingering cloudcover across the far eastern forecast zones, skies are smokey/sunny and temperatures are warming through the 70s and 80s, with a few locations along and west of the Missouri River valley nudging up into the low 90s. There is a system forecast to move from the Pac NW today through the northern plains tomorrow night, dragging a cold front through the region. However, as the system approaches and mid/upper level heights begin to fall and synoptic-scale UVM increases, there could be a few air parcels overcoming the capping inversion along the cold front across northeast South Dakota.
109 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Isolated showers and storms are possible today as a trough of low pressure exits east.
With the possible exception of our two southernmost counties a rare convection-free August afternoon continues as mid level trough transitions to offshore. Rain chances will be minimized by the ridge building in behind today's trough. Mid level ridging will more or less be in control of conditions for the mid week period. Accordingly the highest pops in place are for Sunday as a slow moving cold front associated with the height falls moves closer to the area. Steady state marine conditions through the period as Bermuda High Pressure maintains a southerly component to the winds. Wind speeds will be on the lower end of a 10-15 knot range with possibly a gust or two in the afternoon hours via sea breeze accelerations.
By Sunday, an upper trough from the Plains will push through the area bringing more showers to the area. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the low 90 with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 73 91 73 / 0 40 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 72 92 72 / 0 20 10 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 91 70 90 72 / 0 30 10 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 90 68 90 69 / 0 20 20 50 30.
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 An elongated upper level ridge was spread across the far southern CONUS this afternoon leading to mostly zonal flow aloft.
215 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Ongoing high pressure influence over the region continue this afternoon and expected through the evening as low level of smoke and haze continue across the region. With influence of high pressure, not expecting any precipitation today. Dry conditions for many this afternoon with min RHs dropping into the low double digits and teens though winds at majority of sensors remain below criteria for fire weather concerns today though Red Flag Warnings were upgraded for Monday. Winds increase Monday as an upper low tracks across Montana and associated surface front begins to move into northern Wyoming. Looks like we are going to see critical fire weather conditions for the lower elevations of southwest Carbon County and most of Albany County with late morning through afternoon wind gusts to 35 mph.
Another quiet afternoon with warm temperatures and only some very isolated showers in our far eastern counties today as the area in still dominated by upper level ridging.
Synoptically, the troughing along the east coast finally begins to lift out, which will allow the Bermuda High to build into the southeastern states. As this occurs, the axis of the ridge will migrate northward towards the Florida Panhandle. With the axis of the ridge much farther north and the ridge building in, winds across the Keys area will increase through the depth of the boundary layer, and organize out of the east.
By 14Z Monday, high pressure will settle east of the region with east to southerly light winds around 5 knots moving inland earlier with showers forming along the Atlantic seabreeze towards the 14Z-18Z time period except for KSSI which should stay too dry again Monday. This activity will then converge toward the center of forecast area later in the day, but overall chances will be on the lower side due to drier air. The high will build more to the northeast on Monday, which will result in more of a flow from the east.
Cooler mid level temps on the back end of a mid/upper level trough have allowed for isolated showers further east, with a few as far west as extreme eastern KY. A progressive mid/upper level trough aiding convection over the mid Mississippi Valley late today will approach our area late Monday. The trough will be weakening as it heads east, and a modest east/west dew point gradient should be present.
The cloud cover and light southerly flow will make for a milder night as temperatures will bottom out in the lower 70s in most valley locations -- about 3-5 degrees warmer than last night. With high pressure still off to our east, SW flow will continue to pull moisture into the region and allow for scattered showers/storms during the afternoon hours.
656 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure passes overhead tonight, setting up offshore through the rest of the week. Calm and mostly clear conditions overnight as high pressure overnight. Drying out after a wet past week continues Monday, with high pressure sliding offshore. A drier pattern is expected through mid week, as high pressure builds into the area from offshore. By late week rain chances will increase as high pressure retreats slightly and warm moist flow increases.
/Issued 335 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021/ With a ridge aloft and weak lapse rates. The ridge will flatten some overnight as a short wave extending into the OH Valley pushes to the east. Have likely PoPs across portions of north GA each day as weak lee troughing along the Appalachians could help focus convection across our northern counties.
311 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Upper low was moving east out of Oregon into the Northern Rockies spreading showers and thunderstorms into western and central Montana this afternoon. At the same time, an associated strong cold front was diving south into the region, having made it into Wheatland County at the time of this writing. In the wake of the cold front, gusty west to northwest winds look to continue over the area on Monday as the low drifts north and east towards the Canadian border, keeping the pressure gradients somewhat tight.
A mid level trough was moving slowly across eastern Kansas this afternoon with a vorticity lobe moving into the base of the trough at 1930Z. Monday continues to look hot with weak ridging into the central Plains and thermal axis expanding northward across central and eastern Kansas.
323 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Surface cold front is making its way across the CWA right now. This in association with an upper level Low will track across the area tonight with precipitation in the form of a more light to moderate rain with a rumble of thunder not being out of the question. Another large ridge builds out over the Pacific and moves our way as the week progresses. WINDS: At KGGW and KOLF: N-NW 10-15kts, gust to 25kts At KSDY and KGDV: NW-NE 10-15kts, gust to 25kts SYNOPSIS: A strong cold front pushes across the area this afternoon. Another round of showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) associated with an upper level Low will move across the area Sunday night through Monday afternoon.
While gradients have backed-off (as usual) from overnight to the morning hours, thermal trough in the Valley will allow for a renewed Delta Breeze again later. Synoptically, there is an upper level low centered over the Washington state and accompanying trough axis extending south along the West Coast. Over the next 24 hours, this upper low will quickly push inland toward the Northern Rockies. Main feature for this upcoming week will be the broad ridge building over the West Coast, which will promote day-to-day warming across the region through the middle of the week.
There is a boundary just to the west, not sure if is outflow, an upper trough axis or the dry line. Models suggest the trough axis will move through the region overnight and much of the activity should be east of the area by tomorrow afternoon. Not confident the trough will move through as quickly and may be around to support showers and thunderstorms central and east tomorrow.
Have held onto likely PoPs over the central and southern CWA into the early overnight hours with chance PoPS going into Monday before the upper trough finally moves off to the east. There will be some clearing during the afternoon which will allow for highs along and east of the Mississippi River to reach the lower 90s.
Otherwise, we also increased post-frontal north-northwest wind speeds tonight and Monday with this update, especially over southwestern ND, owing to the magnitude of cold air advection and related low-level mass field adjustments behind the cold front. Presently, an upper level low is positioned over the northern Rockies. This upper low will progress eastward through the remainder of today and tonight.
833 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 A strong cold front will continue to move eastward through the region tonight. Expect a band of rain and thunderstorms to accompany the cold front. At the same time, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the main low pressure system will move into the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains overnight tonight, bringing additional rainfall to those area. Ludwig 600 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 (09/00Z TAF period) A cold front moves from west to east across the region. A strong cold front continues to move eastward through the region. Overnight lows will get cold along the Rocky Mountain Front and higher valleys of Southwest MT, with some locations going below freezing.
Moderate elevated instability will persist overnight as the low level jet continues to strengthen. Updated zones / HWO has been sent, including lowering severe weather probabilities further into the lower end of the limited category.
526 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Ongoing high pressure influence over the region continue this afternoon and expected through the evening as low level of smoke and haze continue across the region. With influence of high pressure, not expecting any precipitation today. Dry conditions for many this afternoon with min RHs dropping into the low double digits and teens though winds at majority of sensors remain below criteria for fire weather concerns today though Red Flag Warnings were upgraded for Monday. Winds increase Monday as an upper low tracks across Montana and associated surface front begins to move into northern Wyoming. Looks like we are going to see critical fire weather conditions for the lower elevations of southwest Carbon County and most of Albany County with late morning through afternoon wind gusts to 35 mph.
Skies will continue clearing throughout the evening as the upper level ridge begins to move closer to shore.
Low temperatures Tonight should be in the lower to mid 70s.
942 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Wx map shows high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf. Temperatures in the lower to mid 80s this evening, not expecting temperatures to drop much more, with mid 70s north of I-10, upper 70s to near 80 along the I-10 corridor, and lower 80s along the coast.
Another mostly dry and warm day is underway across northern Arizona this afternoon as we remain on the northern fringe of high pressure over southern Arizona. Moisture will begin to increase on Monday as an inverted trough moves north out of northern Mexico and into Arizona.
Low level convergence along a cold front will support a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms extending from McCook and Trenton southwest to near the Goodland and Colby areas late in the afternoon. There is a small chance for thunderstorms to exist further west along the cold front but confidence is too low to include in the forecast.
Otherwise, surface observations were indicating that the initial surge of moisture from the Gulf of California was ongoing with moderately strong southerly winds and the dew point remaining steady in the lower 70s. There will be several weather features that will be in play this week as the upper high shifts farther north allowing these disturbances to impact the region.
944 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure passes overhead tonight, setting up offshore through the rest of the week. Calm and mostly clear conditions overnight as high pressure overnight. Drying out after a wet past week continues Monday, with high pressure sliding offshore. A drier pattern is expected through mid week, as high pressure builds into the area from offshore. By late week rain chances will increase as high pressure retreats slightly and warm moist flow increases.
A dry northwest flow will follow an exiting front and upper trough tonight through Monday.
739 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area through much of the week. Tonight: The mid-level trough over the region this evening will lift to the northeast tonight, while weak ridging moves in from the west. At the surface, high pressure will be to our north. The high will usher somewhat drier conditions into our area. High pressure will prevail as the dominate feature both aloft and at the surface through the forecast period. High pressure will remain the dominate feature, providing a typical summertime pattern through the week. Extended Marine: High pressure will remain the dominant feature over the coastal waters, creating a rather tranquil marine setting.