Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will facilitate good downsloping conditions, and with H85 temps ranging from 5 to 8C this afternoon, highs will reach into the lower to middle 50s. Lows will be slightly cooler in the Platte River Valley, given the light west northwesterly winds. Highs Thursday will be similar to this afternoon's highs with the exception of the far northeast, where some cooler air will try to back into the area from southeastern South Dakota. For the remainder of the area, highs will reach into the lower 50s.
251 AM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 09z surface analysis had westerly flow over the CWA with a couple of wiggly weak troughs. Cirrus floating overhead as upper level ridge over the western CONUS shifts eastward per water vapour. Looks nice through Thursday afternoon, but then a fast moving upper trough moves through bringing impactful weather to parts of the region. Today through Thursday afternoon, mean upper level ridge will dominate as thermal ridge maximizes from central MT into western NE.
High pressure will maintain dry and stable conditions across the region through the remainder of the week.
322 AM PST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will remain over the area today keeping the weather dry and temperatures near seasonal normals, with areas of dense morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley.
There was a northeast to southwest temperature gradient, with 16F at Baudette and 34F at Gwinner, so technically there could be a weak cold front/stationary front draped somewhere through the FA. However, wind speeds should stay on the lower end, so blowing and drifting will not be a problem.
413 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast will lead to a slight moderation in temperatures for today compared with yesterday, with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the forecast area.
The center of the high has moved east, so sfc southerly flow is bringing a milder start to the day than 24 hours ago, and daytime temps will warm 5-10 degrees above yesterday's highs. Northwest flow aloft will bring a fast moving upper level disturbance and surface cold front for Thursday.
High pressure to the north with an axis of the high remaining west of the region will keep a northerly wind over the region from late Thursday through at least the early part of the weekend. This trough's passage is behind the surface front and best energy remains well west and southwest of the CWA during this time. A sprinkle or flurry remains possible but the low chances of precip being proffered by the NBM looks to be overdone. Temperatures will top out a bit earlier in the afternoon in the northwest, as the frontal passage will then bring northerly winds and subsequently cooler temperatures.
the forecast area will be under northwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper level ridge axis. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to near 60 degrees. With 850mb temperatures averaging 1F to 6F degrees warmer compared to yesterday its possible for a few locations to reach the lower 60s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 20s to around 30. the upper level ridge axis starts to deamplify a bit during the afternoon as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest region. For the overnight hours south to southwest winds gradually veer to the southwest and northwest as a cold front starts to enter the western portion of the forecast area ahead of the approaching upper trough.
616 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Overall, the convection has been slowly expanding westward towards the islands, which may indicate that the cooler and drier air advection from the Gulf has ceased.
241 AM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 Colorado will be under a moderate northwest flow pattern through tonight as high pressure aloft builds across the Great Basin.
Temperatures are right around freezing early this morning and will rise through the morning, but pavement temps should be below freezing until midday. Kept slight chance of snow/freezing drizzle/drizzle in the forecast for southern WI today, but it's not looking like much of a threat anymore. Highs today will be just a little warmer than yesterday. Look for increasing northerly winds Thursday afternoon in the wake of a weak trough and cold front.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 30s across the area.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Quiet pattern will continue the next few days under the guide of mid- level ridging and slow rising heights allowing for warmer temperatures. Tomorrow will be warmer as 850mb temps respond to the southerly flow presence bringing temps into the 60s areawide with L70s along the river valleys and eastern Permian Basin. With high pressure in control, absolutely no precipitation expected.
Low level thermal progs suggest temps over the next 36 hours should be trending a bit cooler, and NBM appears to be handling this well.
Pacific trough along 135W will come inland tonight and through our area Thursday as it passes through the main upper ridge over western North America. The trough will greatly weaken over our area but the latest NAM and NAMNest show light pcpn in Harney and Malheur Counties in Oregon.
An upper-level trough will be moving through the area today, which will gradually shift surface winds to the northwest.
Extended 30 percent PoPs northward to Vero Beach and further inland to eastern Okeechobee county through the afternoon, then drop back down to 20 percent briefly ahead of an approaching weak cold front. A weak cold front will cross the area tonight, veering winds north late tonight, then northwest late Thursday morning. Northeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots will back to northerly around 10 knots tonight as a weak cold front approaches the waters.
Some high clouds associated with a broader northern jet stream trough will continue to move across the region through tonight as the axis of that trough moves east. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 30s across the area.
This will allow for mainly clear skies and mild temperatures, with lows tonight in the low/mid 30s and highs tomorrow reaching into the mid 60s to near 70.
In its wake, strong northwesterly flow returns as a deepening upper-level trough digs across the southeast US and to the east of our local area. At the surface, high pressure remains in control today before weakening on Thursday.
1018 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 An upper trough will be moving over the area overnight tonight with some showers expected with it, then a weak front dragging through the area behind it bringing some slightly cooler and drier conditions for the end of the week. Winds and seas will get a brief increase to around 15 knots Thursday evening behind the front as high pressure builds.
The ridge of high pressure positioned over the region will expand northward and strengthen tonight as a low pressure system advances into the NW coastal waters.
There is also is a chance for patchy freezing drizzle/drizzle in this regime tomorrow as another weak nw flow wave provides some ascent atop this moist layer.
1132 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Another warmer day is in store, however increased cloud coverage will be the difference in today versus yesterday. A Low pressure system will slip through the region tonight, bringing a low chance for light flurries heading into Thursday morning.
A weak cold front is slowly pushing through the FA and should be south of the FA by sunset. We will remain under northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow with light westerly winds, but high temps will be roughly 5 degrees warmer tomorrow as the upper ridge to our west pushes slightly eastward resulting in increased thicknesses.
1122 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Messy NW flow aloft continues through Thursday with a few upper level troughs crossing the area. With the warm layer aloft shown by the NAM/RAP and subsaturated low- levels, especially south of I-94, if any precip falls, it could be as a very light mix or freezing rain, depending on surface/road temps. A stronger trough is slated to push through tonight into early Thursday in conjunction with a 90 kt 500 mb jet streak approaching from the northern plains. Mild temps will continue through Thursday with above average highs near or above 30 for much of the area, slightly cooler over north-central WI.
An upper low situated west of the Baja was sending a plume of moisture across the Gulf and Bahamas. With little attenuation from passing high clouds, high temperatures should recover nicely, warming into the low/mid 50s, which is close to normal highs of about 52 degrees.
An upper trough will move over the area overnight and into early Thursday, with a few showers expected overnight with it. This will shift east of the area Thursday morning, with some cooler and drier high pressure building into the area behind it.
Some high clouds associated with a broader northern jet stream trough will continue to move across the region through tonight as the axis of that trough moves east. Northwest flow aloft will persist through tomorrow, with ridge building in from the west keeping weather quiet here and allowing for temps to warm a few degrees over today's values. /NF/ Through the remainder of the week, the pattern will remain dominated by surface ridging.
Light and variable winds, combined with a dry airmass and moisture in the low levels, may lead to patchy fog development at ALI/CRP/VCT. The mid-level disturbance will exit the region by the afternoon with high pressure building behind it aloft and at the surface. Warmer and rain-free conditions can then be expected through the remainder of the short-term period as high pressure remains in control. On Thursday, the combination of a generally west to northwesterly flow, drier conditions and mostly sunny skies will result in warmer temperatures, with highs forecast to climb into the 70s area-wide.
Winds at the surface continue out of the northwest thanks to a weak cold front which came through and a high pressure centered in north central Colorado. Warmer air will start to filter in from the west and we should see highs range from the upper 50s in the northeast zones to the mid 60s near the Oklahoma border.
(The rest of today ) Dry northwest flow aloft continues today behind the low amplitude wave moving into the Gulf Coast.
159 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 Mild northwesterly flow aloft continues over the forecast area this afternoon as the upper ridge slowly builds toward the region from the west.
A weak cold front and associated north winds brought low clouds to much of the area today, though satellite and surface observations showed large breaks in parts of central WI and the southern Fox Valley. Expect the low clouds to persist this evening, and eventually fill in over our southern counties. Models agree that mid-level moisture will shallow out as the system exits, possibly leading to a few hours of light freezing drizzle after the snow tapers off. Lows tonight should be in the middle teens northwest to the lower to middle 20s southeast.
205 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure over the southeast and off the eastern seaboard has kept the Keys and Coastal waters in persistent moderate to fresh northeast breezes over the past 24 hours or so. The warmer and moister air over the straits has continued to produce convection through the day, which has lead to several convectively induced wind gusts exceeding marine warning criteria, but thunderstorm development has been scarce. Tomorrow afternoon, a high amplitude trough over eastern CONUS will bring a fairly strong cold front through the area. The ridge behind the front will bridge through the Keys, and convection along the boundary will be somewhat limited.
1017 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Dry and warmer weather today will give way to rain and snow chance on Thursday. Dry, breezy, and variably cloudy conditions can be expected today as low pressure digs across ern Canada. Warm advection into that system will drive high temperature about 5 degrees above the mid-January avgs, although insolation wl be limited by high and mid level cloudiness associated with moisture advection on the van of upr trough encroachment. Precip chance remains slight however, and limited primarily to north of the I 80 corridor given relative llvl saturation and cold frontal encroachment for lift. Clouds and weak cold, to neutral temperature advection under the upr troughing will keep temperature about 5 degrees above average through Thursday night. Cold advection will strengthen on the strength of deep northerly flow following passage of the aforementioned trough axis.
Thursday night's lows will be in the 40s inland and in the low 50s along the immediate coast.
Higher gusts to around 30-40 mph will stay confined to the the higher terrain with gusts to 25-30 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the northeast plains. Otherwise bouts of high cloudiness will overspread the region with temperatures topping out in the 40s and 50s for the plains with mainly 30s for the high country communities. -KT Colorado will be under a moderate northwest flow pattern through tonight as high pressure aloft builds across the Great Basin.
1214 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The latest radar projections agree that precipitation for the rest of today will transition northward with decreasing showers from south to north as the upper ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Most valleys will return to inversions and below-freezing temperatures overnight. The recent rain and higher amounts of moisture will bring the threat of freezing fog in places that are able to become stable overnight and have some clearing of cloud cover. Freezing fog and refreezing of surfaces will also cause slick spots for Thursday morning.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 53 35 47 34 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 50 33 43 31 / 0 20 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 32 48 31 43 31 / 0 20 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 46 31 40 26 / 0 20 40 10 10.
1019 AM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 The ridge will amplify over the West Coast today and progress eastward over the Great Basin tonight. High clouds have filled in a good of the ridge so expect occasional cirrus through out the day. Lows tonight will be 3-8 degrees warmer than this morning due to cloud cover and the warm advection.
1110 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Summary: A stout upper ridge continues to be in place over the Rockies and northwest flow aloft has taken shape over the Central Plains.
Key Messages: - Isolated freezing drizzle/snow this morning, and again tonight into early Thursday morning.
1010 AM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 09z surface analysis had westerly flow over the CWA with a couple of wiggly weak troughs. Cirrus floating overhead as upper level ridge over the western CONUS shifts eastward per water vapour. Looks nice through Thursday afternoon, but then a fast moving upper trough moves through bringing impactful weather to parts of the region. Today through Thursday afternoon, mean upper level ridge will dominate as thermal ridge maximizes from central MT into western NE.
A weak system will bring some light rain and snow showers to the area late Thursday into Thursday night, with some light accumulations possible across the higher elevations. A weak cold front will move southeast across the area late in the day Thursday as well. After a dry night tonight with an increase in mainly high/mid clouds, will see isolated light rain showers moving in late in the day Thursday with some snow showers over the highest terrain. However, will carry no more than chance PoPs and any accumulations across the higher elevations are expected to be an inch or less.
1151 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 (The rest of today ) Dry northwest flow aloft continues today behind the low amplitude wave moving into the Gulf Coast.
Upstream a mid to upper level ridge axis sits over the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will continue to influence temperatures tomorrow just like today with above normal highs and near normal lows. Daytime highs are expected to be a couple to three degrees warmer tomorrow with many places seeing the mid to upper 60s.
Also, the southwest winds will help highs to end up above average in the lower 60s by late today.
Temps continue to warm at the surface, so the freezing rain/drizzle concern is diminishing. Temperatures are right around freezing early this morning and will rise through the morning, but pavement temps should be below freezing until midday. Kept slight chance of snow/freezing drizzle/drizzle in the forecast for southern WI today, but it's not looking like much of a threat anymore. Highs today will be just a little warmer than yesterday. Look for increasing northerly winds Thursday afternoon in the wake of a weak trough and cold front.
ridging and eastern U. troughing, with the Upper Great Lakes remaining in fast NW flow. This wave will be followed by a cold front tomorrow afternoon, ushering in colder air and veering winds around from NW to N and eventually NE.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the region tonight through tomorrow, as an upper level ridge continues to build in to our west. Temperatures will be down in the low 30s tonight under idea radiational cooling conditions with calm winds and mostly clear skies. High temperatures will look to reach the low 70s in the afternoon.
Another upper low over the NE Pacific west of the Baja. Both were sending high altitude moisture eastward across the lower-48. Upper blocking situated over the Europe region was overall slowing any big changes in the upper pattern over the North American domain. With higher heights and a southerly flow rounding high pressure to our east will produce somewhat milder conditions tonight. Lows should range in the low/mid 30s with light southerly winds. A weak area of low pressure moving to the SE from south central Canada will bring a trough/weak front across the area Thursday evening. Before then with more variable clouds, a similarly cool day is forecast for tomorrow, with highs warming into the low/mid 50s.
Temperatures have responded well where there was sunshine, warming the region into the upper 30s and even into the low 40s for a few locations. But if some moisture happens to deposit on the surface, be aware of potentially slippery conditions to develop with surface temperatures decreasing below freezing.
215 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 H5 ridge continues to build across the region today, pushing most of the storm track well to the north and east.
Precip chance remains slight however, and limited primarily to north of the I 80 corridor given relative llvl saturation and cold frontal encroachment for lift. Clouds and weak cold, to neutral temperature advection under the upr troughing will keep temperature about 5 degrees above average Thursday night. Cold advection will strengthen on the strength of deep northerly flow following passage of the aforementioned trough axis.
830 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will push offshore tonight.
327 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Conditions will remain dry and mild tonight and Thursday under the influence of high pressure. High cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling too much tonight, and with the already warmer start to the day, will see above normal temperatures again on Thursday, though not as warm as the past couple of days. There is more of a concern for some mixed precipitation over western portions of the CWA where a warm layer aloft will set up along the main area of low pressure that will extend from south to north over the central part of South Dakota after midnight.
Tonight through Thursday night The ridge currently over Nevada gets flattened by a trof quickly moving through the northwest U. This trof will bring additional clouds to Nevada and a slight chance for a shower in the mountains of northern Elko County, but otherwise dry conditions continue.
Light variable winds tonight with clear skies will allow for radiational cooling across SE Texas and lows will range in the upper 30s along our northern counties, in the 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and in the low 50s along the coastal areas. Winds will turn west on Thursday but remain fairly light as high pressure builds over the lower to mid TX coasts.
High pressure remains the dominate weather feature across the region this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the North Bay to lower 70s across the Central Coast. Look for additional warming through the afternoon with temperatures peaking in the low/mid 60s across the northern portion of the region to mid 70s across interior Monterey and San Benito Counties.
This shifting of the ridge axis eastward will allow for large scale subsidence to take over tonight into most of Thursday. There will still be some mid and high level moisture on the downwind side of the ridge axis leading to at least some cloud cover tonight and early Thursday.
With temperatures only briefly dipping below freezing in that area, no significant impacts are expected.
Conditions will remain dry and mild tonight and Thursday under the influence of high pressure. High cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling too much tonight, and with the already warmer start to the day, will see above normal temperatures again on Thursday, though not as warm as the past couple of days. There is more of a concern for some mixed precipitation over western portions of the CWA where a warm layer aloft will set up along the main area of low pressure that will extend from south to north over the central part of South Dakota after midnight.
700 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022 An upper level trough over the north-central Gulf coast late this afternoon scoots across the east Gulf and FL over night then exits to the Atlantic early Thu. At the surface a weak trough follows the upper trough eastward as high pressure in the southern plains slips out over the Gulf Thu. Clearing with drier and slightly cooler air filters in Thu. High pressure builds in from the west Thu then slides across the state through Sat with winds generally 15 knots of less. An area of low pressure moves through the southeast quarter of the nation Sun and Mon. dragging a cold front into and over the waters with thunderstorms and robust winds up to 20 knots.
Maintained flurries but sfc temperatures hovering around near or below freezing mark could mean potential for a few slick spots if anything reaches the sfc. Thursday will be the last in this string of milder days as strong ridging upstream edges closer to the region. Look for highs to be slightly cooler than the past few days, reaching the 30s to upper 40s.
Given recent overachieving temperatures with respect to model guidance, nudged temperatures toward the 90th percentile for Thursday, though winds will have a bit more of a northerly component, which could keep us a bit cooler.
Thursday will be cooler as CAA fills in behind tonight's disturbance with highs in the mid 20s north to low 30s south. At this time, the range of snow totals over the seven county Twin Cities metro is less than ideal, with our lower end forecast being less than 2 inches and the higher end potentially dumping upwards of 5-6 inches. As goes with all winter events a few days out, the exact track of the low can still shift slightly, despite consistent model agreement at this time.
High pressure to our north will weaken and shift northeastward into the Atlantic weakening the pressure gradient and decreasing winds tonight. Coastal troughing will linger over our coastal waters tonight. Lows overnight will be around normal to just above normal ranging from the upper 30s north to the low 50s along the NE FL coast.
High pressure will maintain dry and stable conditions across the region into Thursday.
High pressure will remain over the area keeping the weather dry and temperatures near seasonal normals, with areas of dense morning fog at times in the San Joaquin Valley.
109 PM PST Wed Jan 12 2022 High pressure will remain over the area keeping the weather dry and temperatures near seasonal normals, with areas of dense morning fog at times in the San Joaquin Valley.