Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
342 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The high pressure ridge that has kept the quiet weather in place has moved off to the east. This, combined with stronger warm air advection in the mid levels will result in much warmer temps today and tonight, although increasing winds will likely mitigate the apparent temps somewhat. That warmer air moving into the region will also bring plenty of moisture in the return flow. /HJS/ Sunday: A cold front will approach the area early Sunday, with scattered showers and isolated storms ongoing mainly in our northwest area at daybreak.
The melt will be on today as temps finally get above freezing for the first time in a few days. This SFC boundary/wave will move into our west overnight, followed by a secondary cold front around midday Sunday.
424 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east today. Rain will overspread the area tonight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. High pressure will then offer dry and seasonably cold temperatures for the first part of the week.
829 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Updated the start time of the High Wind Warning to 15Z due to high winds occurring through Guadalupe Pass at this time. (Today through Sunday afternoon) An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under west to southwest upper winds. This upper trough will progress eastward today. Surface winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will strengthen out of the west this afternoon in response to the approaching upper trough. High winds are expected this afternoon in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. A cold front will push into the area tonight/Sunday morning as the upper trough continues moving eastward.
314 AM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 A cold front splitting the region will allow for a cool Saturday across the plains of Central and North-central Montana. Temperatures behind the front, in Central and North-central Montana, have dropped from the lower to mid 30s, to the single digits above and below zero. High temperatures across the region will reside in the vicinity of average for this time of the year, except in Hill and Blaine counties, where cooler temperatures are expected to hold on through the day Sunday into Sunday night.
558 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Temps early today are starting out noticeably warmer than yesterday at this time with strong 850-700 mb warm advection underway. The low clouds will continue to spread north across the area today. As a result, have included low end chances for freezing drizzle for a time this afternoon in this area. Although confidence in occurrence is on the lower side (higher chances farther south of the area), with cold antecedent conditions, any light precip could result in travel impacts. In addition, areas of fog could develop with low level moisture surge this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
Thanks to very deep high pressure building down the eastern seaboard, significantly drier air has spread down the FL peninsula. The pressure gradient will tighten as the high builds southward, so breezy conditions are expected along the coast, with east winds of 15 to 20 mph. Overnight lows will only fall to the low to mid 60s. Dry air has filtered across the peninsula as high pressure builds over the eastern third of the US. The high pressure ridge over the local waters will build and strengthen though the day.
With the departure of the trough to our east, ridging will build into the region today, and this will mark the beginning of a drier and slightly warmer pattern for our forecast area. Today, temperatures will generally trend towards normal for early January, but as a light east flow develops in the lower levels of the atmosphere and a warmer air mass builds under the ridge aloft, temperatures will warm to above normal Sunday and remain there for the next several days. Despite the warmer daytime highs, overnight lows could be quite cold, especially where snow pack persists and clearer skies allow for strong nighttime cooling.
330 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Temps early today are starting out noticeably warmer than yesterday at this time with strong 850-700 mb warm advection underway. The low clouds will continue to spread north across the area today. As a result, have included low end chances for freezing drizzle for a time this afternoon in this area. Although confidence in occurrence is on the lower side (higher chances farther south of the area), with cold antecedent conditions, any light precip could result in travel impacts. In addition, areas of fog could develop with low level moisture surge this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
At the surface, there is a Canadian cold front approaching and in fact, the winds at Hillside DOT in northern Rosebud County have just shifted to the NW signaling the front's arrival to our cwa. West of Billings, warmer downslope winds will prevail thru the period (highs still near 40F today). Building heights associated with western CONUS ridge will bring dry weather on Sunday, with temps ranging from near 40F in the west to 20s in the east. JKL Large-scale upper ridging will dominate our weather during this time with mainly dry and mild conditions.
A slip into MVFR may occur tonight as the low clouds return. /issued 250 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The most recent surface analysis indicated low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico just east of Kenedy County, with a warm front extending from the low towards the east and a stationary front draped across northern Mexico. This complex will lift towards the north today, allowing warmer high temperatures to return courtesy of an onshore flow developing and intensifying. Sunday will see the slow approach and passage of yet another cold front.
Precipitation will be primarily rain, though a period of freezing rain may be possible at onset. Update focused on increasing cloud cover and adding a couple hours of isolated flurries north of I-80 as the last remnants of lake enhancement fade away in the face of increased low-level ridging. Otherwise, high pressure will result in in dry conditions with plenty of sunshine, relatively light wind, and slightly below normal highs. Warm advection increases overnight ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the west. A brief period of freezing rain looks likely north and east of PGH overnight at onset, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.
815 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Warm advection is underway along with isentropic lift within the lower to mid levels. Temperatures will warm steadily into the lower 40s late this morning and afternoon highs in the lower 50s in valley locations and upper 40s atop the higher plateau areas. Overnight a warm front lifts northward across MS/AR with the eastern portion of the front clipping NW AL. As the warm front moves north into TN on Sunday, moisture advection during the day will raise dewpoints into the 50s and increase PWs to 1-1.
520 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The cold front will be mainly east of our northwest counties by 12Z this morning. Winds will quickly switch out of the west and northwest and become breezy, as much cooler air will sink in. The high will sink to our southeast, with another area of high pressure nearing from the northwest. Northwest flow aloft with the trough axis just to the east to start things off, with that flow bringing a 1040mb high pressure into the region.
This activity will shift north this evening as a weak ridge builds over the area. This afternoon's temperatures will set the tone for the next few days under high pressure.
1101 AM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 Quick update this morning to address cooler temps across central and eastern zones. Cold front has crossed eastern zones, with cold air spreading northwest into Billings and Judith Gap. At the surface, there is a Canadian cold front approaching and in fact, the winds at Hillside DOT in northern Rosebud County have just shifted to the NW signaling the front's arrival to our cwa. West of Billings, warmer downslope winds will prevail thru the period (highs still near 40F today). Building heights associated with western CONUS ridge will bring dry weather on Sunday, with temps ranging from near 40F in the west to 20s in the east. JKL Large-scale upper ridging will dominate the western CONUS during this time leading to mainly dry and seasonably mild conditions for our region.
1147 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Temps early today are starting out noticeably warmer than yesterday at this time with strong 850-700 mb warm advection underway. The low clouds will continue to spread north across the area today. As a result, have included low end chances for freezing drizzle for a time this afternoon in this area. Although confidence in occurrence is on the lower side (higher chances farther south of the area), with cold antecedent conditions, any light precip could result in travel impacts. In addition, areas of fog could develop with low level moisture surge this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
400 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 Arctic high pressure will build across and offshore the Mid-Atlantic states through tonight, followed by the passage of a frontal system Sunday and Sunday night. Winds will switch from easterly today to southerly tonight as the high builds east off the coast.
Winds will switch to the north behind a cold front early this evening at all sites.
Latest Hrrr suggests high temps only reaching the low 40s for highs for most areas.
346 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 Freezing rain, possibly initially mixed with sleet, will change to rain from south to north tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the region Sunday and early in the week with temperatures holding near normal.
259 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will move offshore through tonight. A cold front will pass through Sunday night.
940 AM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 Pattern change approaching during the next 24 hours as the fast- moving flow buckles across the US, with ridging building across the Rockies and a larger-scale trough dropping south across the eastern half of the US. The final H5 trough axis sweeps across the western half of the state today, bringing a slightly cooler atmosphere. Snow continues to fall across the western mountains, and will continue until the trough sweeps through late this morning. The cooler air continues to move into local basins on Sunday, with highs at or just below normal, mainly in the 20s. The only area that will buck this trend will be Johnson County, where the westerly flow off the Bighorn Mountains will bring some downsloping, pushing temperatures upwards into the lower 40s.
152 PM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 After a frigid Saturday across north-central Montana following a cold front passage, surface winds shift to westerly Saturday night, allowing for high temperatures to rebound to near normal across most of the plains Sunday, with only parts of the Hi-Line and Milk River Valley remaining frigid.
The cold front looks to enter northeast OK toward 06Z and exit the area by 12Z.
A cold front moving through during the day Saturday will make for a chilly Saturday night and a cooler Sunday. Although cooler, an upper-level ridge starts to build in Sunday which will keep skies clear and bright. This ridge also ushers in a pattern change just in time for the start of the work week.
357 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 Rain will develop across the area tonight and continue into Sunday, ending as a cold front moves through. High pressure will build in bringing a return to below normal temperatures for the beginning of the work week. Surface observations show that temperatures have warmed above freezing across almost the entire area. Cannot completely rule out a bit of sleet or freezing rain at onset to the north and west of Dayton. Cold front will cross the area during the day. Gusts will diminish in the evening and clouds will decrease as high pressure starts to build in. To start the work week, much of the Midwest and Great Lakes region are enveloped by an upper level trough.
1031 AM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 09z surface analysis had low over north central ND with cold front into southern MT. Water vapour loop depicted upper trough across the northern Rockies heading in our direction.
1257 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east today. Rain will overspread the area tonight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. High pressure will then offer dry and seasonably cold temperatures for the first part of the week.
The low level moisture/theta-E axis becoming established from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Ozarks will pivot east tonight. A wet Sunday is on tap as the low level jet axis veers to the southwest and west-southwest through the day. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will expand by midday as the cold front slices into southern TN and northwest AL.
The light snow showers over the Cascades will diminish through this afternoon as an upper level ridge builds in from the eastern Pacific. The rest of the forecast area will continue to see dry conditions through today and tonight as the ridge builds overhead. The biggest forecast challenge into the beginning of the workweek will be the extent of fog and low stratus formation across the lower elevations. Fog and low stratus across portions of the Columbia Basin is anticipated to develop as early as late tonight as high pressure aloft leads to a low level inversion strengthening over the area. With high pressure building over the Pacific Northwest, the potential for mist and fog will exist after 10Z tonight at YKM, PSC, ALW and DLS.
1246 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will bring a cool day today while Sunday warms up as the high moves offshore. A cold front then brings a few showers late Sunday night.
217 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The passage of a cold front has shifted all winds to the northwest. Continued the advisory until 18z Sunday in order to collaborate with neighbors, but conditions could improve a few hours sooner given the expected light winds by morning as high pressure settles in.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1037 mb ridge of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States while an area of low pressure is in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures have improved across the Mid-South as a combination of a tightening pressure gradient and southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is advecting warmer air up into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate rain chances will continue to increase as a cold front in the Central/Southern Plains moves into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys tonight into Sunday morning. The aforementioned cold front will gradually begin to depart the Mid-South later Sunday with cold high pressure filtering back into the forecast area.
For tonight, a cold front will move into far NW OK just after sunset and continue southward into the I-44 corridor around 1 AM.
(The rest of today) A damp, cloudy - albeit warmer - day remains on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as moisture increases. Surface observations indicate that temperatures have risen above freezing areawide, and as such, the biggest update this morning is to remove the freezing drizzle mention from the forecast.
238 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Short term forecast remains on track with breezy west/southwesterly winds persisting through the late afternoon today, soon to be followed by an advancing cold front pushing south through the Texas Panhandle and into our area tonight. There will be a short lull in surface winds speeds between sunset and the aforementioned cold front across our CWA. The cold front currently situated in southern Kansas remains progged to arrive on our northern row of counties around 9pm, and quickly move south toward the I20 corridor shortly after midnight. The strongest energy associated with the upper level trough will lift north into the Great Lakes region overnight while an upper level trough lags behind helping to keep northerly winds elevated overnight into Sunday morning.
354 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure pushes farther off to the northeast tonight as a cold front approaches from the west into Sunday. The front will cross the area Sunday night with widespread rain, with cold high pressure building in thereafter through mid week. Latest sfc analysis shows 1037 mb high pressure centered over the DELMARVA. The high slides offshore tonight but continues ridging down into the local area, leading to light NE flow and mostly clear skies until some increasing clouds late. Continued dry then for daytime Sunday ahead of the next cold front. Alberta Clipper system drags a cold front across the area quickly Sunday night.
The light snow showers over the Cascades will diminish through this afternoon as an upper level ridge builds in from the eastern Pacific. The rest of the forecast area will continue to see dry conditions through today and tonight as the ridge builds overhead. The biggest forecast challenge into the beginning of the workweek will be the extent of fog and low stratus formation across the lower elevations. Fog and low stratus across portions of the Columbia Basin is anticipated to develop as early as late tonight as high pressure aloft leads to a low level inversion strengthening over the area. Otherwise, with high pressure building over the Pacific Northwest, the potential for mist and fog will exist later Saturday night into Sunday morning for KYKM and KPSC.
Upper-level troughing, located over the western US, will continue shifting eastward throughout the day today. Ceilings will lower even further Sunday morning out ahead of a cold front.
254 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 Arctic high pressure will build across and offshore the Mid-Atlantic states through tonight, followed by the passage of a frontal system Sunday and Sunday night. Winds will switch from easterly today to southerly tonight as the high builds east off the coast.
The heaviest accumulation thus far has stayed just off shore of the lower Keys where as much as almost 2 inches has already fallen.
1231 PM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 Water vapor shows positively tilted trof extending from the Desert SW through the Northern Rockies/Plains. At the surface, associated cold front has swept through the entire forecast area with gusty northwest winds and steady or slowly falling temps as 1028mb arctic high builds southeast from southern ALTA. Warm front begins to move northeast across the region on Sunday with highs generally back into the 30s to lower 40s. Dry and mild conditions will then prevail through mid week as upper ridge covers the Northern Rockies.
Clouds will begin to increase overnight as the next low pressure system approaches. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 40 53 30 46 / 0 20 100 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 35 52 26 42 / 0 10 100 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 37 50 24 42 / 0 30 100 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 32 52 22 38 / 0 10 100 60 0.
A broad upper level trough, currently making its way through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest, is trekking east and is expected to push a cold front into our area by late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Winds behind the front will quickly turn to the north and become gusty as a high pressure system will begin pushing it's way south into the Southern Plains, tightening the pressure gradient. This will bring ample cold air advection with it as the northerly winds will be pulling from a much cooler and drier airmass behind the front. (Sunday night through next Saturday) In the wake of Sunday morning's cold frontal passage, a 1040mb high pressure center will build in across the southern Plains.
1124 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 A period of freezing rain is anticipated north of highway 24 this evening and will cause slick spots on area roads.
Moisture pooling will occur ahead of a cold front approaching on Sunday, and though rain chances will tick upward in the short term, the bark will be worse than the bite as overall rain amounts will likely be modest with a scant quarter to half inch earmarked for the lower Valley Sunday night, if we're lucky, and lesser amounts elsewhere.
1142 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 Update/Aviation Our latest guidance from the 12z run of the models and also looking at the actual meteorology of the event tonight suggests we will very likely have between 5 and 10 hours of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain tonight. Even after the warmer air reaches this area, most of our CWA either does not get above freezing, or only gets just above freezing by a degree to two. Moisture will be rather shallow (limited to the lowest 5-7km) with little to no ice nucleation, so drizzle/freezing drizzle should be our primary p-type.
Strong high pressure will be northeast of the region through Tonight, then more toward the east on Sunday. A coastal trough will persist Tonight in the onshore flow pattern. The best convergence and moisture related to the trough will be over SE GA, where a few afternoon and early evening showers will be possible.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 53 30 46 25 / 20 100 50 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 52 26 42 20 / 10 100 50 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 50 24 42 20 / 20 100 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 52 22 38 16 / 10 100 70 0 0.
Precipitation will be primarily rain, though a period of freezing rain may be possible at onset. Otherwise, high pressure will result in in dry conditions with plenty of sunshine, relatively light wind, and slightly below normal highs. Warm advection increases overnight ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the west. A brief period of freezing rain looks likely north and east of PGH overnight at onset, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.
240 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 Starting off under a dome of high pressure with clear skies, but expecting a quick-hitting cold front to push through the area during the short term, bringing with it the next round of precip chances. CAMS have been slowing the system down little by little with each run, with onset of rain for NW GA by tomorrow afternoon, with the cold front eventually pushing through the ATL metro area by tomorrow evening.
The counties mentioned earlier will see the highest probability of near blizzard conditions. With the lower clouds clearing over the eastern portion of the advisory area, anywhere in the advisory are can expect widely varying visibilities in open country from unlimited down to under a quarter mile. As Arctic high pressure settles over the region, but remains west of the forecast area through the evening we expect slowly diminishing brisk northwest winds to continue.
245 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Southerly flow continues to advect warm, moist air into the area this afternoon with freezing drizzle and patchy fog possible into tonight. A cold front currently stretching from southeastern South Dakota to the Arrowhead of Minnesota is slated to traverse the forecast area this evening into tonight. Ahead of the cold front, southerly flow continues to advect warm, moist air into the region with freezing drizzle and patchy fog starting to impact northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Areas of patchy fog are likely until the cold front scourers out the low-level moisture currently in place. Behind the front, cold, arctic air will return with wind chills slated to drop into the low/mid 20's in the northwest and low teens in the southeast.
1057 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 (The rest of today) A damp, cloudy - albeit warmer - day remains on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as moisture increases. Surface observations indicate that temperatures have risen above freezing areawide, and as such, the biggest update this morning is to remove the freezing drizzle mention from the forecast.
127 PM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 Mean trough is passing through the central Rockies this afternoon with a weak cold front draping from southern Montana into northeast Wyoming. The surface pressure gradient behind the trough is continuing breezy to windy conditions from the west-northwest over much of the area, with gusts 25-30 mph common. Afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler as well, especially east of the divide. The ridge axis will move eastward over the Intermountain West Sunday night, bringing warmer mid-level air over the forecast area, and trapping the cooler air in the lower elevations.