Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1233 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 931 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THRU OUR FORECAST AREA AND NOW SITS SE OF THE I-59/20 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED IN.
217 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT THIS FALL.
254 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED GRAUPEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE FREEZING LVL AROUND 5000 FT ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. UPPER TROUGHING. PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE REGION IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY. AS THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
418 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 MARINE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS HAVING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A KILLING FREEZE.
331 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Drier air within northerly flow continued to filter into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon behind the cold front that moved through yesterday/last night and ahead of a Canadian high pressure over the Central Plains. The afternoon cloud cover over the CWA is expected to increase in coverage and spread back across much of the region overnight tonight as an area of warm advection moves over the top of the high pressure system.
1116 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 FREEZE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WAS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE AUTUMN SEASON WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 30S. NOT AS COLD IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER OUR RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WE WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL TONIGHT /UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT WHEN IT'S EVEN COOLER/.
High thin cirrus moving though western Kansas has contributed to slightly warmer temperatures through mid morning. The latest Rapid Refresh hourly temperatures by a few hours out indicates slightly warmer temperatures than were forecast as well, and suggests lows across the north likely in the low 40s. As winds shift to the south on Saturday, ending the weak cold advection pattern, highs can be expected to be at least a category or two warmer.
WHILE RIDGING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BUILDS OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH WESTERLY FLOW FURTHER ALOFT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING MGM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR MGM AND DRIFTING SOUTHARD. 75 BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ONEILL TO THE LOW 60S IMPERIAL AND CHAPPELL. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES MIGRATE EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE A TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE PAC NW.
THESE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
UPPER LOW. LIKELY KEEPING MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE SWRN U. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS STAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6-7MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST COMBINE TO GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PRODUCING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS CLEAR WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION (10,000 FT BASED ON VAD WIND AND RAP/ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS 15-18Z) WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SMALL HAIL IN OUR SHOWERS. I WILL ALSO SHORTLY ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR TOMORROW NIGHT SINCE WE HAVE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST ALREADY. FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE PRECIP TYPE TODAY INTO SATURDAY AND THE EXTENT OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FROST BUT THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE COULD GET DOWN TO FREEZING OR BELOW. TEMPS ATTM ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WIND.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A NICE SETUP FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH 45-50KT WESTERLY FLOW AT 700MB AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL MERGE WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THAT PORTION OF NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHWEST ND. HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN CONUS.
1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ONLY CHANGES WERE MINOR TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TREND ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AND ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH ALABAMA WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWED MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS UP TO ABOUT 5KFT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
936 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKACHEWAN/NORTHERN MONTANA CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE SHOWERS NOW MOVING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO COVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF MORTON COUNTY. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD PUSH MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND TS ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISE. THE TROUGH LOSES MOST OF ITS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BUT SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING LASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
IT WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESTOA TO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE TREND IN THE EXTENDED IS TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS.
230 PM MST FRI FEB 19 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY WITH LOW TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BREEZY S/SWLY WINDS CONTD TO BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO AR SINCE THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S THIS AFTN.
743 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AWAY FROM THE COOLER GULF WATERS.
A TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. CLEAR SKIES OR PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUN-MON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY NWLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE. THEN THE RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE WRN CONUS WED. GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE NEXT AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS NEXT THUR-FRI.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
/ISSUED 231 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016/ CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 06Z SAT. THIS WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A weak upper trough approaches the Plains late Saturday, with weak cyclogenesis occurring over central and eastern Kansas late tonight into Saturday.
301 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TRIGGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN JUST RAIN. UPR TROF STARTS TO DIG AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN SUN NGT INTO MON. SHRT WV RONDING THE TROF TRIES TO HOOK UP WITH A SRN STREAM SHRT WV RUNNING THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. SYSTEM MVES OUT EARLY MON AND LEAVES COOLER BUT GNRLY DRY WX. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDY CONDITIONS. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO THE LATTER AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
352 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FURTHER VEERING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST AND THEN TO NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH NORTH AND EAST. WEAK MID-LEVEL CAA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
Expect south winds of 10 to 15 mph with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.
700 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
454 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 A VERY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LBB AND PVW WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR WITH THE LOWER END OF CLOUD DECKS BEING AROUND 15K FEET. /ISSUED 339 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLOWLY BACK DOORING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
/ISSUED 248 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS TO TULSA OKLAHOMA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
223 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
Behind the front, dewpoints have dropped considerably and with temperatures in the low 70s, relative humidity values have been in the 15-25 percent range. The front that has been moving through the area today will stall and begin to head back to the north as a warm front later tonight. Lift will increase across the region as an area of low pressure organizes over northeastern Kansas. Lift will increase over the region Saturday night as a cold front enters from the northwest and the aforementioned area of low pressure moves northeast.
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR TOMORROW MATCHES THE TREND SEEN WITH CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE KEEP TURBULENT MIXING GOING AND WITH MORE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE NOT ALLOWING FOR US TO RADIATE ENOUGH AS WE HAD THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
SFC PRESSURE NEARED 986 MB AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE LOW. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH LEVELS THAT SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE BREEZY WITH LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 62 52 64 / 30 40 30 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 61 50 62 / 40 30 30 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 60 50 62 / 40 30 30 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 57 47 59 / 30 20 30 80.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING DEEP 986 MB CYCLONE ROLLING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.
248 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO COVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF MORTON COUNTY. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD PUSH MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND TS ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISE. THE TROUGH LOSES MOST OF ITS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BUT SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING LASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
352 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND THUS COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WAVES WILL BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. WHILE THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
expect a mostly clear overnight with lows falling into the low to mid 40s across much of the area. as weak warm front begins to lift north through the area.
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the Rockies overnight as an area of high pressure at the surface slides east southeast into Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. On Saturday a cold front will cross southwest Kansas as an upper level trough, which was located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest at 12z Friday, crosses the northern Plains.
A WEAK RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SAT.
WEAK H5 RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
/ISSUED 352 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROF MOVES FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
959 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST 35-40 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW. COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND SO WILL ADD VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SAT.
SO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM ALONG WITH THE WIND PRONE AREAS. SO DOWNGRADED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO AN ADVISORY UP THERE. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL 21Z. GUSTS DECREASED BELOW 45 KT FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COOLER WITH 50S-AROUND 60 ALONG/EAST OF I-25. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
248 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS TO TULSA OKLAHOMA.
934 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS INTO SE TEXAS.
AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THUS WE WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPIRE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WHICH WERE VALID THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE GAP/HYBIRD LOCATIONS. OVERALL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
149 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS FURTHER SHIFTED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR INVOLVING DROPPING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 06Z TONIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
636 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
924 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STALLING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIMPING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND NO LONGER PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE DOES HAVE THE CHANCE TO INFILTRATE THE RIDGE, BUT SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT APART FROM A FEW PASSING CLOUDS.
542 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 149 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS FURTHER SHIFTED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR INVOLVING DROPPING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 06Z TONIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
339 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLOWLY BACK DOORING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STARTED OUT AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE LOW. EASTERN WI IS MORE PRONE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR THIS AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MOST OF NOAM AS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE AND AMPLIFIES.
With winds becoming light late tonight and skies turning partly cloudy, temperatures should be able to fall to the agreeable MOS guidance for lows which are in the low to mid 40s.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FETCH WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND SERVE TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
High pressure off the Carolina coast will move south to a position off the Florida East Coast.
JBB Steady rain or snow will transition to showers this evening as the front shifts eastward with an end to all precipitation expected by morning as upper ridging begins to develop. the weekend looks dry with temperatures warming under the west coast ridge.
257 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
There is still a low level thermal ridge supporting the continuation of above normal temps today.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND LARAMIE COUNTY HERE AT CHEYENNE IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 5 PM. REPLACED THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH AN ADVISORY UP THERE.
252 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 Main front/trough has passed through about 2/3 of the forecast area so far this afternoon, and was approaching the I-57 corridor at mid afternoon. A low pressure area will develop in the southern plains Saturday and is forecast to lift northeast and move across southern IL Sat night. Models have finally come into better agreement and even the new ECMWF has trended south with the track of the low.
NOTHING IS ON RADAR AT PRESENT TIME AND THE COLD FRONT IS BACK NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND EVEN WITH IT BEING ANALYZED. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 149 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS FURTHER SHIFTED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR INVOLVING DROPPING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 06Z TONIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
200 PM PST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RIDGE PATTERN WILL SET-UP OVER THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR BETTER FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE TRANSITION FROM ZONAL TO RIDGE PATTERN WILL SEE MINIMAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH INCREASING CHANCES ONCE THE RIDGE SETS IN. SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.
AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY NORTHWEST THEN DRAINAGE LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS QUITE DRY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SO WILL TAKE OUT PRECIPITATION IN TONIGHT'S FORECAST. A LITTLE COOLER BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
250 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 Main front/trough has passed through about 2/3 of the forecast area so far this afternoon, and was approaching the I-57 corridor at mid afternoon. A low pressure area will develop in the southern plains Saturday and is forecast to lift northeast and move across southern IL Sat night. Models have finally come into better agreement and even the new ECMWF has trended south with the track of the low.