Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
355 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 A period of unsettled weather is in store for the lower Mississippi Valley area this week as a series of upper level disturbances and associated frontal systems move through the area. There could be some brief periods of heavy rain along with some embedded thunderstorms as the upper level disturbance interacts with a warm front that will be in the area Saturday night.
552 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Upper level analysis has a ridge over the northern Plains, with a strong trof crossing the northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front has just moved through Rapid City, with very warm and dry air moving in from the west. Surface cold front will continue east this afternoon, with the Cap eroding by late afternoon/early evening. Further west - closer to the upper trof - ongoing showers and thunderstorms in central WY will move into northeast WY and western SD this afternoon and evening. Upper trof quickly shifts east with zonal flow taking over through Wednesday night. Temps will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday behind the cold front.
High pressure will remain fixed over the waters into the weekend with light winds and favorable boating conditions.
Proton Previous Discussion: Upper low drifting east into Alberta this afternoon will be the main driver of our weather this period. A cold front that has pushed into wester North Dakota has allowed for a NW breeze across the CWA. Some return flow is expected Wednesday with another cold front to push across the area Wednesday Night. Temps will be a bit cooler with low 80s.
1046 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Upper level analysis has a ridge over the northern Plains, with a strong trof crossing the northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front has just moved through Rapid City, with very warm and dry air moving in from the west. Surface cold front will continue east this afternoon, with the Cap eroding by late afternoon/early evening. Further west - closer to the upper trof - ongoing showers and thunderstorms in central WY will move into northeast WY and western SD this afternoon and evening. Upper trof quickly shifts east with zonal flow taking over through Wednesday night. Temps will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday behind the cold front.
/Issued 342 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ Mid level troughing to our east is shifting further eastward allowing more zonal flow into the Plains with resultant pressure falls increasing southerly flow and low level moisture return. Evening convection across the High Plains will spread eastward but likely remain north of the area.
/issued 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ A well-defined short wave moving into the northern Rockies today will drag a modest mid level moisture plume across our area tonight into Wednesday though within a low amplitude upper ridge passing overhead. Lift mainly to the north, but storms currently firing over the higher terrain in northern New Mexico will make a run southeast towards our western areas late this evening.
856 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Most of the convection has weakened across our CWA this evening as the primary forcing has exited to the east and northwest winds at the lower levels have become dominant. We spread out the low PoP's again toward morning and really increase them into tomorrow afternoon.
722 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Cool temperatures are expected tonight under high pressure.
1143 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure across the upper Ohio Valley will sustain dry conditions with clear skies and light winds through daybreak. Otherwise, dry air in the low level will maintain clear skies below 10k ft through Wed afternoon. Very cold airmass aloft as this mornings sounding indicate freezing level around 6kft combined with strong diurnal heating is yielding capes upwards to around 1k joules producing scattered showers mainly from the Thumb and Saginaw Valley on north. Showers and Thunderstorms will develop over Wisconsin and spread east-southeast along a strengthening warm front that will be lifting north through lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon.
734 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure will move east through the Ohio Valley today and tonight. As the high moves east tomorrow, warmer air will begin to move into the region, with an increase in temperatures expected through the rest of the week.
928 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure crosses tonight.
Temperatures have already fallen into the 70s over much of the area due to earlier rain cooling, with a few spots already reaching their expected lows in the low to mid 70s.
1219 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 An upper level trough will remain to our west through mid week. Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the overnight into Wednesday.
Dewpoints are still in the lower 50s across the Plateau and current temps are outpacing guidance in term of the cool down. Light sfc winds will shift NE/calm to S as sfc ridging influences move east thru 29/06Z.
North winds will increase and seas will steepen through Wednesday evening as high pressure rebuilds offshore and the thermal trough deepens over California.
749 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure crosses tonight.
Dewpoints are still in the lower 50s across the Plateau and current temps are outpacing guidance in term of the cool down. Light sfc winds will shift from NW-NE to S as sfc ridging influences move eastward thru 28/24Z.
High pressure affecting the area will cause VFR conditions through the TAF period at all three TAF sites.
937 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will approach from the west through this evening and will likely aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong to severe.
545 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Aviation Section Updated A cold front dropping south out of Canada will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms going across much of the area through early this evening.
Low pressure trough remains east of the Padre Island and an upper level trough persist over South Texas with abundant moisture in place keeping the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Wednesday, mid-level trough axis will likely be oriented along the coastal areas, so the main rain chances will be over the eastern half of Deep South Texas and over the marine areas.
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A strong area of low pressure is currently located over eastern MT with a frontal boundary running southward across western SD.
Weak cold front will slide southeast through our CWA overnight and early Wednesday morning with a slight chance of showers.
Forecast area will be under a weak cyclonic flow as an upper level low passes through western Canada overnight and Wednesday. Upper level flow will shift from west to northwest tonight as a ridge builds offshore.
/Issued 733 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ A weakness in an upper ridge overhead and the presence of old outflow boundaries led to scattered thunderstorm development in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The weakness in the ridge will move southeast overnight which should confine Wednesday's convective weather to the Upper Texas Coastal region. The weak upper level trough that has aided in the development of thunderstorms today will shift to the east overnight tonight. High temperatures Wednesday will be a little warmer with ranging from near 90 east to the mid 90s northwest.
1102 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure build into the area tonight providing dry and cool conditions.
1148 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure builds over the mid- Atlantic region through Wednesday.
1205 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather today. Dry weather and mostly clear skies are expected through today as high pressure slides across the region. Temperatures are expected to continue several degrees below average, though highs should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
/issued 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ Quite a bit of scattered convection has developed just south of the CWA and along the Gulf coast near the combination of a weak stationary front and a weak upper trough over Southeast Texas.
9PM temps are within a degree or so of forecast, except at KMEM where temp is a few degrees warmer.
748 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A moisture-starved cold front will exit central NC this evening. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend over the Carolinas and southern Virginia Wednesday and Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will build into the region. the air mass associated within the high is notably cooler and drier. This drier cooler air mass and a near calm sfc regime at the surface should allow temperatures to drop into the 50s overnight across the Piedmont, and near 60-lower 60s across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain. An area of high pressure at the surface coupled with rising heights aloft translates to dry and pleasant conditions for Wednesday and Wednesday night. After the seasonably cool start, afternoon temperatures will rebound into the low-mid 80s.
Quiet evening will continue overnight with high pressure lingering over the area.
1035 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will move east of the area overnight as high pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley. The high passes south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night.
912 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure build into the area tonight providing dry and cool conditions.
A strong area of low pressure is currently located over eastern MT with a frontal boundary running southward across western SD.
946 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley tonight. As the high moves east tomorrow, warmer air will begin to move into the region, with an increase in temperatures expected through the rest of the week.
638 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure will continue to move off to the east as the upper level pattern becomes zonal. Dry weather is expected tonight through tomorrow morning, but with the high to the east, southerly winds will return to the area during the day Wed and bring warmer temps and higher dwpts into the area for the rest of the week. As this first complex of storms redevelops and moves into the Great Lakes region, the associated cold front/outflow boundary will begin to lay out over parts of central IL, resulting in storm possibilities continuing and increasing Wed night. with the highest pops being in the north part of the CWA.
853 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Cool temperatures are expected tonight under high pressure.
/issued 358 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a cyclonic spinning low over New York State with a longwave trough draped along the the mid-Atlantic.
1158 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure over the Ohio Valley has kept the area fairly nice with partly cloudy skies, temps in the low 80s, and a light breeze from the SE over the region. This low pressure will help to develop a very strong LLJ overnight through the central plains of 50+kts shortly after sunset. Currently guidance has this feature dissipate by late morning with strong southerly flow of 20-30kts allowing warmer temperatures to mix down and also advect in higher dewpoints.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 800 pm depicts a well defined cold core trough aligned across the Eastern CONUS from Eastern Canada down to its base over Georgia. South of that, a regional scale middle and upper level ridge is centered 26. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest marine and land observations and analysis as of 800 pm details a frontal boundary that has reached Northern Florida, but is rapidly losing its identity this evening. A weak pressure pattern will allow light to gentle easterlies as local surface ridging bifurcates on either side of South Florida.
Some of the cooler valleys in the east are on pace to achieve upper 40s, and lowered a few sites a degree or so based on the rate of drop. Also included a bit more of a ridge/valley split as the high pressure center gradually moves east into West Virginia/Virginia by dawn. Will reassess the lows a bit later this evening, but at first glance, the current temperatures look very reasonable. Another beautiful day is in store for tomorrow with sunshine and low humidity helping boost temps back into the lower 80s. This will result in a wider temperature range across the area, with temps varying from the mid 50s in our deeper eastern valleys to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
High pressure will continue to build over the area on Wednesday and slide off the coast by the weekend. Westerly mid level flow weakens through the period behind the exting upper trough.
756 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing a chance of a shower or thundershower. High pressure build into the area tonight drying things out.
High pressure will be centered over WV and extend into the TN Valley, with an unseasonably dry air mass over the region.
733 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weakness in an upper ridge overhead and the presence of old outflow boundaries led to scattered thunderstorm development in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The weakness in the ridge will move southeast overnight which should confine Wednesday's convective weather to the Upper Texas Coastal region. The weak upper level trough that has aided in the development of thunderstorms today will shift to the east overnight tonight. High temperatures Wednesday will be a little warmer with ranging from near 90 east to the mid 90s northwest.
Will reassess the lows a bit later this evening, but at first glance, the current temperatures look very reasonable. Another beautiful day is in store for tomorrow with sunshine and low humidity helping boost temps back into the lower 80s. This will result in a wider temperature range across the area, with temps varying from the mid 50s in our deeper eastern valleys to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
1111 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Isolated convection made one last run at the Metroplex this evening but appears to be succumbing to subsidence from an upper ridge and a lack of diurnal instability. The weak upper level trough that has aided in the development of thunderstorms today will shift to the east overnight tonight. High temperatures Wednesday will be a little warmer with ranging from near 90 east to the mid 90s northwest.
Quiet evening will continue overnight with high pressure lingering over the area. /issued 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ Quite a bit of scattered convection has developed just south of the CWA and along the Gulf coast near the combination of a weak stationary front and a weak upper trough over Southeast Texas.
753 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will pass through early this evening with high pressure building east from the OhiO Valley. The high passes south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night.
821 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will pass through early this evening with high pressure building east from the Ohio Valley. The high passes south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night.
Clear skies tonight will help to bring our low temperatures down into the lower 70s along the coast, to low-mid 60s farther inland. /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Water vapor imagery nicely depicting the surge of drier air rushing into the state in response to ridging filling the void of the northeastern-exiting upper low moving up into the Ohio River Valley. high pressure centered over the lower Rio Grande is creating a brisk northwest wind with overall subsidence keeping skies mostly sunny and warming this afternoon's temperatures into the lower 80s.
/issued 623 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ 00Z TAFS Winds will abate and skies will clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region. /issued 351 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Afternoon analysis shows a deep upper-lvl trough digging into the Southeast as the cold front that passed us this morning continues to shift east.
651 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure covers the forecast area at 19Z. The ridging remains over the region tonight. On Thursday, the ridging will be in the vicinity on the eastern third of the forecast area in the morning and expect no precipitation. Some minor model differences begin to show up in the afternoon with regards to the onset of the rain, and departure of the ridge.
937 PM MST Wed May 24 2017 The high pressure system over the region that produced above normal afternoon temperatures will weaken tonight as several weather systems move into the western states.
As upper level low approaches SE portions of TN as 25/06Z comes, iso to sct light shwrs should persist at least E of track 25/03Z-25/04Z with mainly VFR ceilings expected. As sfc/upper level ridging influences build across the mid state region, MVFR ceilings erosions will occur between 25/16Z-25/18Z, with VFR ceilings around 5kft eroding CKV/BNA by 25/20Z-25/21Z.
We increased PoPs along and west of the Highway 83 corridor with this update to reflect the eastward-propagating line of showers moving across western ND early this evening. By Thursday the trough will be east and the chances for precipitation remain just along the northern boarder. Used the highest guidance for wind speeds Thursday which gave a reasonably breezy but not windy day with west to northwest winds. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 60s southwest to lower 70s James River Valley. Current greenup will again keep fire danger below the high level even with the gusty winds.
1150 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Next wave of forcing and deeper moisture making slow but steady progress northwest on north side of fully mature Ohio Valley low pressure. with the upper low centered to the west over Missouri. Still appears that eastern sections of our CWA will see the highest POPs during this time where the deepest moisture and strongest forcing will reside. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. with highs warming into the low to mid 60s. Turning partly cloudy and warmer. The upper level low will finally lose its grip over northern Michigan (at least eventually).
827 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Regional radar composite is showing a broken band of thunderstorms just north of the forecast area, which is forecast to push south through the area overnight ahead of the cold front. Winds will start to subside through the next few hours, but seas are expected to remain at or above advisory levels through the overnight hours as the cold front passes through the area.
Despite the approach of the sharper lapse rates with the upper low , CAPE (per NAM BUFR Sounding data) suggest less than 250 j2/kg2 will be available for any thunderstorm development, with equilibrium level near 13-14kft MSL. The NAM-WRF model suite appears to have a generally good handle on the evolution and transformation of the closed low moving south through into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the generation of a secondary low in southern Indiana this evening overnight.
The atmosphere stabilized significantly with passage of the squall line from NW-SE but the cold front remains to the NW across the eastern FL panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico late this evening. The broad/deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS/FL Peninsula will gradually lift northeastward through the day leaving zonal flow in its wake across ECFL. This trough will push a weak cool frontal boundary south across the area and into the southern peninsula by evening. gusty west winds will occur esp in the morning with greatest shower/storm threat south of a ISM-MLB line as the strong cold front traverses the area.
623 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 00Z TAFS Winds will abate and skies will clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region. /issued 351 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Afternoon analysis shows a deep upper-lvl trough digging into the Southeast as the cold front that passed us this morning continues to shift east.
803 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Cold front will move through the Midlands and CSRA overnight with additional showers and thunderstorms. On Thursday the upper level low will cross the region bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Clouds increasing early Thursday with showers developing mainly over the higher terrain Thursday Afternoon.
1154 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Scattered showers over west and central MO associated a low pressure system over SE MO will persist through sunset. Cloudy skies and northerly winds will once again keep the high temperatures well below normal as this trend changes going into Thursday. The lowest visibilities look to be located near the calm winds over the central portion of our CWA. Winds will shift to the south with warm air advection pushing into the area along a weak ridge building into the area. The ridging will quickly move east with a zonal upper level pattern over the southern Rockies initiates a more active pattern for the weekend.
/issued 350 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ (Tonight and Thursday) Generally clear skies are forecast overnight across West Central Texas, with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A lee trough will develop across eastern New Mexico and Colorado on Thursday, resulting in an increased surface pressure gradient over the forecast area. The southwest winds in combination with weak upper level ridging will result in unseasonably hot temperatures across the region.
1157 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 06Z TAFS High pressure centered nearly directly overhead this morning yielding clear skies and calm winds. Winds will gradually increase by this afternoon as the high slides east of the area, but flying conditions will otherwise remain ideal through the period. /issued 623 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ 00Z TAFS Winds will abate and skies will clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region. /issued 351 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Afternoon analysis shows a deep upper-lvl trough digging into the Southeast as the cold front that passed us this morning continues to shift east.
Winds will increase and be gusty at times Thursday as low pressure develops in the Southern Plains. The pressure gradient will increase across the lower Texas coast Thursday and breezy conditions will develop across the coastal sections of the CWA Thurs afternoon.
1127 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure to shift east overnight with light and variable winds becoming southeast at 5 to 10 knots by 25/12Z. /issued 1014 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Our going forecast is pretty much right on track with hourly obs temperature wise, although current dew points are a little warmer than forecast. Our low temperature records would appear to remain in tack as winds are already calm and we have moistened up a bit since mixing down into the upper 40s has ceased early this evening and rebounded in the lower 50s everywhere except Idabel with 46 and a forecast of 47 by daybreak. The higher pressures that started the day in West Texas are now down the coastal bend of towards Brownsville.
703 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 We increased PoPs along and west of the Highway 83 corridor with this update to reflect the eastward-propagating line of showers moving across western ND early this evening. By Thursday the trough will be east and the chances for precipitation remain just along the northern boarder. Used the highest guidance for wind speeds Thursday which gave a reasonably breezy but not windy day with west to northwest winds. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 60s southwest to lower 70s James River Valley. Current greenup will again keep fire danger below the high level even with the gusty winds.
934 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Next wave of forcing and deeper moisture making slow but steady progress northwest on north side of fully mature Ohio Valley low pressure. with the upper low centered to the west over Missouri. Still appears that eastern sections of our CWA will see the highest POPs during this time where the deepest moisture and strongest forcing will reside. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. with highs warming into the low to mid 60s. Turning partly cloudy and warmer. The upper level low will finally lose its grip over northern Michigan (at least eventually).
Lows tonight will be cooler than the past few nights and will range from the mid 50s in SE AL to mid 60s in the Big Bend.
A cold front will sag south across northern Utah later tonight, then stall over central Utah Thursday.