Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure will remain over the Gulf tonight and Tuesday while a Plains storm system matures. Low temps tonight will be in the lower 70s, with high temps getting into the lower 90s for inland areas on Tuesday.
506 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure over the Southeastern States will weaken Tuesday.
1125 AM PDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure will provide for mainly clear skies and above normal temperatures across the area through the middle of the week.
Temperatures continue to struggle upward into the lower 40s across much of northeast OK as of 3PM, while low-mid 80s have been observed into northwest Louisiana and in far northwest OK. A few elevated storms may also develop by morning within this regime before the next cold front quickly moves into eastern OK Tuesday morning and through western AR by early afternoon. A Freeze Watch will be issued for all but far southeast OK where freezing temps should be more localized, but these counties may need to be added eventually if later data supports it.
Forecast Confidence is high: Low pressure will bring rain and snow to southern Wisconsin tonight through Tuesday night. Snow is then expected across the forecast area Tue evening and Tue night as colder air works in on the back side of the low. Models are in pretty good agreement with the low track and temperature profile with this system. The precip that falls during the day tomorrow will battle temperatures near the freezing/melting mark along with a relatively high early April sun angle.
A mostly sunny and milder day is in store for the area Tuesday, Although, it will become more breezy as downslope develops, in response to the upper level ridge building over the area.
244 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
Much drier air has moved into South Texas with obs reporting dewpoints in the upper 20s across the Brush Country west of Highway 281, with dewpoints in the mid 30s/40s east of the highway. The cooler air still remains well to the north. However, a second surge of high pressure is expected to move through the region late tonight bringing in the cooler air while also reinforcing the dry airmass. Tuesday will be very pleasant with clear skies, and a cooler and drier airmass. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Gulf waters tonight as a second surge of high pressure moves into the region.
Temperatures have reached into the upper 70s to the low 80s while dewpoints have dropped into the teens and low 20s behind a frontal passage that occurred this morning. A ridge of high pressure will shift over north-central Texas and aid in the lighter winds along with cooler temperatures Tuesday.
Cold front is poised to move across Middle Tennessee late this afternoon and evening.
Byrd Lingering rain showers across the southeastern CWA should taper off tomorrow morning as the aforementioned low pressure system moves away from the area. There may be a sharp E-W temperature gradient across the area on Thu night into Fri if models are correct with the placement of a warm front. Kanofsky Strong low pressure over southwest Missouri is driving a broad area of showers and a few thunderstorms up into central and eastern Missouri as well as southwest Illinois this afternoon. Rain will taper to sprinkles or drizzle overnight and flight conditions should improve to higher end MVFR between 2000-3000ft across most areas except probably the eastern Ozarks which will likely stay in the lower clouds into Tuesday morning.
201 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Broad trough over the region aloft will continue to shift east tonight. Some freezing drizzle will also be possible there as the mid levels dry and the low levels remain saturated for a bit with lingering low level lift. Dry weather will prevail Wed as upper level ridging commences. Western CONUS trough re-loading will occur toward the end of the week with local WAA and height rises. Deep western CONUS trough will eventually shift east this weekend, with precip chances increasing across the Northern Plains, possibly supporting a decent storm system if the trough ejects in large wave packets.
Currently, surface winds have veered to the southwest across most of the area following the passage of a warm front. This event will hinge on evolution of the surface to 850mb wind fields in response to the approaching upper-level trough. Hi-res models appear to be getting a better handle on the mesoscale features and are slowly trending more aggressive with surface pressure troughing and backing of winds in the 23-03z time frame. Balloon launches are planned for 330 PM, 6 PM, and 730 PM to sample critical changes in the low-level wind environment. 14 Isolated to scattered showers are possible this morning as a warm front lifts north of the area.
High pressure will bring a strong warming trend the first half of the week. As high pressure builds in from the west this afternoon, the expected warming trend has arrived with temperatures up 4 to 7 degrees compared to yesterday.
/ISSUED 1038 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ A pre-frontal trough has pushed into the coastal waters with west winds overtaking coastal counties. A narrow band of clouds persists between the trough and a weak cold front that extends from low pressure over SW Missouri to Huntsville to Columbus to Laredo. Temperatures are already in the upper 70's along the coast and it won't take much heating for Galveston to reach the lower 80's this afternoon.
North of the low across our area, winds were out of the east. This will aide in slightly warmer temperatures tonight.
1149 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Rather compact upper low moving across the Ks/Ok border early this morning with cloud tops now warming over the CWA. Dry Tuesday as upper ridging begins moving towards the area. Max temperatures about 10 degrees warmer on Tuesday with more sunshine and warming 700H temps.
Wed and Wed night low pres off the CA coast will spread moisture north over the region as a cold front from the nw pushes through bringing rain, and then a cool showery air mass for the end of the week.
The low stratus has been quite persistent this morning with ceilings between 800 and 1200 feet in most areas. The sounding profiles from the high res/short term guidance would support supercell structures with strong rotating updrafts between 22z and 03z and that is reflected well in the SPC outlooks. The cold front should shut down the severe weather threat from west to east pretty quickly this evening. After a brief period of clearing with the dry slot/jet max behind the front the deep upper trough will swing across resulting in a stratus lower beneath an inversion. A breezy and chilly day will be in store for the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday as the upper low rotates through. As the thermal trough swings across late Tuesday/Tuesday night there may be enough lingering moisture to allow a brief and spotty changeover to snow.
Cooler day with brisk northeast winds, especially near lake Michigan. Another round of small craft advisory conditions are expected late in the week with a strong low pressure system moving through the region.
1106 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Conditions are favorable for some light freezing drizzle over northwestern parts of the area, including the northern Black Hills, so have updated the forecast to include that through this morning. Precipitation has transitioned to snow across most of the CWA, although there was some spotty freezing drizzle. Tuesday will see some warming at 850-mb, which should translate to slightly warmer weather than today (although still tempered by snow cover).
A Wind Advisory will be issued for the higher elevations of the Smokys and surrounding areas. the upper low will swing into the region bringing cooler air and enough low level moisture and weak lift for scattered to widespread showers. We start the period with an area of low pressure swinging across the forecast area with ongoing light rain showers in place. As the low pulls east Tuesday night, colder air will advect into the region with stout nw flow behind the low.
410 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Cold front over northeast to southwest Louisiana will continue to push fairly quickly east through most of the forecast area the remainder of this afternoon and this evening and through the coastal waters overnight. Drier air has already filtered into the forecast area ahead of the cold front, and this has capped off and inhibited most of the convective development today. There is still a slight chance of a stray shower and possibly a thunderstorm over eastern areas through just before sunset in advance of the cold front, but most locations should remain dry.
Closed low over southern MO will continue to move eastward while the system in northern MT moves southeast. Highs should top out mainly in the lower and mid 40s.
1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate a cold front extends from KAEX southeastward to KBPT. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible east of the cold front over the next 1-2 hours before skies become clear with the passage of the front.
Overall, much less wind is in store for today, though, windy conditions will persist across northeast New Mexico behind a back door cold front.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the wake of yesterday's trough, w/a batch of cold air moving in behind.
A broad trough and associated circulation center is present well off the California coast over the eastern Pacific, while the storm which impacted our area this weekend has pulled east of the Rockies. A low-amplitude ridge will continue to build over the Great Basin tomorrow.
/issued 424 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ A strong cold front will continue to push, from north to south, across West Central Texas today. This front will bring cooler air, along with gusty winds from the northwest and north. Highs today will be cooler than yesterday, mainly in the 70 to 65 range.
Lingering rain and snow showers continue over west-central KS in what is left of the wrap around region of the departing upper low. Upper ridging will then develop over the Rockies by Wed which will allow lee troughing to develop and get the area into a warming trend starting Wed. We will continue with above normal temps and gusty south winds for Thu into Fri as a deep upper trough starts to come on shore over the Pacific Northwest. Southern stream impulse is expected to be lifting off to the northeast by 12z Sat with a more significant upper trough extending from the northern Intermountain into the Great Basin. This will keep above normal temps in place to start the weekend with a cold front expected to move through Sun.
144 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. A weak upper level trough will bring an increase in mid-level clouds Tue into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow circulating around a Hudson Bay high should ensure dry conditions.
215 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 127 PM CDT Breezy east-northeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period as low pressure tracks eastward well south of the area and high pressure remains dominate over Ontario tonight into Tuesday. This northeasterly flow will transport a colder airmass over the area for Tuesday resulting in cooler high temperatures area-wide. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 40s well inland, but likely only in the mid to upper 30s closer to the lake under partly cloudy skies. Conditions will feel even cooler than these values, however, as winds continue to gust up to 25 to 30 mph during the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler to near normal through the extended.
1225 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Main low pressure area currently located in extreme SE KS at this time. The low will make slow progress into SW MO by noon time, with wraparound showers in the comma head along the Turnpike, slowly shifting northeast of the forecast area as well. The more widespread/heavier precip should tend to focus along/just north of the mid-level convergence zone just northeast of the low center, transitioning from parts of central Kansas just north of the Wichita metro early this morning into east central Kansas and eventually western Missouri by late morning. An upper trof will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday with rather cool northerly flow upstream across eastern Kansas.
1114 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Showers rapidly ending across the plains as the upper low across north central OK continues to pull eastward.
245 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the wake of yesterday's trough, w/a batch of cold air moving in behind.
325 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. Temperatures this week do not look very warm though and airmass over the region stays quite dry with dwpnts well below freezing so despite the dry weather does not look like we will melt much snow.
122 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow through nrn Ontario into the nrn Great Lakes between a trough from Quebec into nrn New England and a ridge from IA into the ern Dakotas. Today, ne flow CAA will drop 850 mb temps to around -12C and keep temps below normal with highs from the mid and upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. A weak upper level trough will bring an increase in mid-level clouds Tue into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow circulating around a Hudson Bay high should ensure dry conditions.
Latest models still maintain a baroclinic zone across the CWA that moves slowly east overnight, just a head of advancing mid level trof. Low pop/low qpf, but still the potential for light freezing drizzle or freezing rain Tuesday night as we lose the moisture in the DGZ between 600 and 700mb, and are left with just moisture below 800mb. The 500mb trough will finally edge to our east late Tuesday afternoon, with the large ridge sliding in from the western U.
The Hudson Bay high pressure system will dominate the weather pattern through Tuesday afternoon. Along the Lake Michigan shoreline, northeast fetch off the relatively warmer waters should allow for low clouds to develop and move onshore. Due more clouds expected, took a blend of the warmer mav and cooler met guidance for highs on Tuesday. Tuesday Night Through Monday The weather across the area will be dominated by a series of anticyclones ridging south from the Hudson Bay area. The northeast flow will strengthen again late in the week as another anticyclone begins to ridge south from Canada while a cyclone heads east across the Plains. The medium range models have begun the expected trend of shunting precipitation with the cyclone south of the area.
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Westerly winds at 15 to 25 mph with some gusts of 35 to 40 mph shifted to the northwest today as a cold front moved through the region. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures managed to rise in the low to mid 60s northwest to the mid to upper 70s southeast. 58 /Tuesday Onward/ In wake of Monday's cold front, noticeably cooler conditions will follow on Tuesday.
This along with clear skies will allow temps to drop to below freezing for most areas on the caprock with temps averaging in the mid 30s across the Rolling Plains.
Cloud cover should dissipate rather quickly this evening as we lose the low level instability. Except for the lower elevations east of a KCAG to KRIL to KASE line this morning, expect dry conditions today with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Given model differences, held onto slight chances of snow for the higher terrain of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado through Tuesday afternoon. A weak ridge will allow for steady warming through the middle portion of the week over the western slope.
Skies will begin to clear from west to east Tuesday afternoon with highs only slightly warmer than those of today in the upper 40s to low 50s.
High pressure west of Hudson Bay is moving SE to just west of James Bay by 12z/Tue. This will force dry, cooler air into the forecast area. Large scale 5-wave long wave pattern remains intact today around the northern hemisphere with anchoring troughs off the Pacific coast and across eastern Canada/New England. Split but fairly progressive flow pattern noted through the lower 48 with an active southern stream producing active weather across the lower Mississippi Valley through the SE states. Weak troughing is moving into the northern plains. Canadian high pressure will essentially remain parked north of the Great Lakes through midweek before breaking down as we get into the latter half of the week.
At 2 PM, a cold front extended from low pressure over So Missouri to near Texarkana to near Rockport to Laredo.
However, at KMCB a thermal trough axis associated with a passing upper level low could produce some MVFR ceilings of 2000 to 3000 feet tomorrow morning.
Also since the ground temperature is above freezing and the snowfall rate has not been high enough to overcome that, the snow that has fallen has already melted or is too wet for the wind to blow around. Temperatures will cool into the lower and middle 20s.
Drier, cooler air will filter into the region overnight behind the surface front.
Compact upper low passing across srn MO this aftn driving a cold front sewd across OK and into the nwrn portions of our region. Cold front to continue sewd this evening/tonight, bringing cloud cover and perhaps a few isold shwrs back to mainly the nrn portions of the region. Much cooler temps with strong CAA are expected for Tue/Wed despite clear skies, as upper ridge amplifies over the wrn CONUS and we remain under nw flow aloft. Warming trend will really take off Thu/Fri, as the ridge amplifies further and drifts ewd into the Plains.
115 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Dry northeast surface flow from high pressure over Hudson's Bay Canada keeping dry weather in place across our region, and will continue to do so through tonight into Tuesday morning. Will then be watching a mid-level trough pushing southeast out of the Northern Plain tonight into Tuesday, but the combination of dry northeasterly surface flow and weakening wave likely to produce just an increase in high and mid-level cloud cover and very little if any precipitation.
449 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 An upper level low will deepen as it lifts into the TN valley tonight.
Daytime highs will be cooler, especially along the Iowa border where cloud cover is more widespread.
246 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
A low pressure system will move across the Southern Appalachian Region today.
A few lingering showers will be possible overnight, but in the mid-morning hours is when the bulk of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the area ahead of and with a potent low pressure system. The severe threat along with rain chances will be ending from north to south Tuesday evening as a short wave trough exits to the east into the Atlantic becoming negatively tilted as it does so with the attendant cold front moving to the south of the forecast area.
1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 The short term concern remains the timing of incoming trough and attendant snow and amounts. Clouds have been persistent but there have been sporadic holes in the lower clouds, especially to the east. This will influence overall movement of the western trough into the area and should limit any significant precipitation over the eastern cwa. Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 40s to the east today, with mainly the mid/upper 30s to the west. This precipitation area will move into western cwa during the evening with categorical PoPs indicated as the upper trough/surface inverted trough move in. Forcing remains rather weak with the trough and will slowly work into eastern MN by 12z Tue.
Stacked upper low currently resides along the southern Kansas and Oklahoma border this early morning. Meanwhile a swath of elevated showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low forcing is lifting north and east from south central Kansas. These showers are progged to enter southern portions of the area in 1-2 hours with a weakening trend anticipated as updrafts encounter a cooler and more stable airmass. Rain showers may mix with snow for areas north of Interstate 70 as sfc temps fall into the low 30s. With morning temperatures starting in the low/mid 30s, a brief rain/snow mix may be possible before transitioning to rain. By mid-week, a broad mid-level ridge will become centered over the Rockies and gradually shift further toward the central CONUS.
323 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Mostly zonal flow aloft becomes more southwesterly overnight as a deep trough moves across eastern Canada.
203 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Temps forecast tonight is going to be in the lower half of the 30s for most locations, but extent of any frost development will be driven by clear out of clouds and lessening of winds, which may maintain a 5 mph breeze or so for much of the night.
627 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through tonight, then be replaced by high pressure to the north late Tuesday through the end of the week. A weak cold front will stall over the area over the weekend. As high pressure continues to build over the region from the southwest overnight, a weak cold front with limited moisture will approach the region from the northwest late. As the front weakens high pressure to the north will build over the region with the flow becoming NE-E. Pred dry weather and warming trend expected this week into the weekend with high pressure in control. Coastal showers will be possible late week into the weekend as a weak coastal trough develops.
337 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Intense low pressure in Quebec will continue moving away from the region tonight. A trough of low pressure will cross the area Tuesday evening.
With the cold start and the clouds moving back in, tomorrow's highs should be cooler than today's.
There was another brief patch of freezing drizzle across the Wadena area, but this has ended and will watch for more reports. Winds will diminish this evening and overnight as high pressure propagates into the region. High pressure on Tuesday will lead to a relatively quiet day.
A cold front now working its way south out of the Texas Panhandle will slowly approach the region through tonight and hang up somewhere across eastern Texas.
326 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Mid-State temperatures warmed up quickly today, in advance of an approaching cold front. a jump of some 35 to 40 degrees! At 3 pm, the cold front was just east of CKV, headed toward Nashville, with nothing by sunny skies out ahead of it. The cold front is expected to continue across the Mid-State overnight, without producing any precipitation. Some cooler air will follow the passage of today's cold front, with highs on Tuesday backing off into the 50s.
153 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Broad northwest flow across the western US with high pressure off Pacific NW coast and trough over the Mississippi Valley.
A weakening and moisture starved cold front will swing through the area and will exit after midnight. The weak frontal boundary that slips into the region will be gradually shifting back to the north as a warm front through mid week.