Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 Currently - A low pressure system off the southeastern Atlantic coast is accelerating out to the northeast, leaving a rather flat pressure field across the gulf of mexico. Winds are light out of the northwest to north this afternoon, bringing in somewhat cooler and drier air. Forecast - Through the weekend, light northwest breezes will remain weak and turn more northeasterly as high pressure becomes more dominant across the south and the Gulf of Mexico. Guidance suggests a short wave trough will ride into the broad trough aloft and encourage pressure falls over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Florida Straits.
Surface winds have responded with gusty west winds across the lower eastern slopes and portions of the I-25 corridor. The associated cold front will arrive by mid afternoon across the Pikes Peak region with a slow rebound in dew points. Clearing skies overnight along with cooler airmass should lead to cooler overnight lows across the area.
333 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Cold front is moving through the area, bringing an end to a rather mild day. Once the front, mid clouds and light rain move through late afternoon and early evening, skies are quite clear and will remain so overnight and on Saturday as upper ridge moves in and subsidence takes hold.
Cold front is expected to traverse the area tonight with some stronger winds (surface and aloft) behind the boundary leading to LLWS concerns. /issued 339 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/ Heights aloft will fall today as an upper trough skirts by to the north with deep enhanced wind flow extending into our area as well. The pressure gradient will slowly loosen through the day Saturday, but after the near-record warmth today, Saturday morning in particular will seem a bit chilly; afternoon highs still expected into the 60s, however, a little warmer than our normals.
Surface ridging will remain across the area overnight producing calm winds with only high level cloudiness anticipated. Due to persistent ridging into the Gulf coast states, limited moisture is expected with frontal passage.
1222 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 Aviation A breezy day is in store with sunshine and highs in the 50s, before a cold front brings clouds and a few light rain showers or drizzle tonight and Saturday.
243 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 An upper level trough will drag a cold front through the state Saturday.
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Today starts out quite mild, as light south winds keep overnight lows well above freezing. A dry cold front will begin moving through the region during the late morning hours. An upper level ridge builds for the weekend, keeping mostly clear skies and above average temperatures.
1003 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Max temps appear on track for the low to mid 70s based on morning obs. The air mass over the region is till very dry and a large diurnal range in temperatures is expected with high temperatures today warming into the lower and middle 70's. Warmer temperatures are expected tonight as low level moisture deepens. A weak cold front will cross SE TX Saturday night but moisture remains limited and upper level forcing is weak so again no precip is expected along the front.
These will diminish overnight as a weak ridge of high pressure develops over the northern Rockies. It may take a while with a dry air mass currently in place but patchy fog is expected to develop in the lower valleys of western Montana and central Idaho which may have some impact to travelers through mid morning Saturday.
Upper level troughing extends over the southeast U. The trough will slightly weaken through the period, but will remain the dominant upper feature over the region through the weekend. This trough is lending support to an area of low pressure located off the east coast of Florida. With all the cloud cover, temperatures will be well below average with most places only reaching the low 70's today and tomorrow. With high pressure building into the area, rain-free conditions can be expected through the weekend. Meanwhile, large scale ridging will dominate the southern Rockies and Desert Southwest. At the surface, weak high pressure will spill into the Florida peninsula, with an inverted trough on its southern periphery.
1255 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the north while low pressure will lift northeastward from Florida along the stalled frontal boundary off the coast.
A weak cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Saturday morning offering only a slight chance of a shower. High pressure will build in behind the front, persisting into the middle of the work week, offering continued dry weather. Tonight, clouds will be on the increase as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will just be entering our northwestern zones by the end of the near term. The surface cold front will clear the forecast area later Saturday morning with cooler air slowly working into the area.
Overnight, winds will veer to the northwest as a cold front pushes southward through the region, with a few gusts to around 20kt possible through Saturday morning. /issued 309 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/ A stubborn upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS will tenaciously hang on through the weekend. This portends dry weather for these parts as the flow aloft over the region switches from northerly around the upper ridge, to northwesterly around the upper ridge due to the passage of an upper trough translating southeastward through the midwest U. We'll likely be dealing with record high temperatures today as h85 temperatures warm under the eastern extent of the said upper ridge. Fortunately, the upper trough traversing the Midwest will send a cold front south through region on Saturday on gusty northerly winds.
125 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Models move the area of high pressure over Alabama/northern Georgia further southeast into southern Georgia tonight. As a cold front continues to move east into the central Great Lakes region, S to SW flow will increase a bit as gradient winds begin to strengthen. This will advect somewhat warmer and more moist air into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect warmer temperatures on Saturday despite abundant cloud cover with highs in the 60 to 65 degree range near and south of the Tennessee River (via westerly flow just ahead of the front.
256 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Upper high over Baja and northwest Mexico will provide a dry northwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles through the weekend.
328 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 Dry and cooler air will continue to move into South Florida as a cold front continues to pull farther away from the region. There will not be a significant cold blast associated with this as most of the cooler air will remain off to the north. Saturday will remain dry across the region as high pressure builds back into the area.
231 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Temperatures have soared in central Kansas this afternoon, and wind speeds have increased greater than anticipated behind the cold front across central Kansas. After record setting warmth this afternoon, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild over the weekend as the air behind the cold frontal passage tonight will be of modified Pacific origin.
A cold front should move through the region tomorrow and this will only reinforce the airmass as the atmosphere lacks the moisture to produce rainfall as the front moves through. A cold morning across the northshore where temperatures have flirted with the freezing mark most of the night.
On the surface, weak area of high pressure is across the south central and southeast states which is leaving a light southwest flow over the area.
I went on the higher end of guidance with highs in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
Cold front works through the area late tonight. Temperatures will still be quite mild with 925 hpa temperatures remaining above freezing much of the night.
As the warm front associated with this system pulls northward, it will bring with increasing rain chances.
Current water vapor imagery shows a distinct mid- level trough moving east out of the Dakotas into MN. Meanwhile, will likely see some cirrus/altocumulus above this dissipating lower cloud in advance of a cold front dropping through ND/northern MN by late in the afternoon. Cold front makes passage across the area tonight with main forcing/saturation for light snow chances remaining just north of our area.
Upper trof moving across the western states splitting, leaving a closed low over the desert sw while the northern portion heads toward the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be cooler than last week but still generally mild. Midweek sees the development of a potential winter storm system with upper trof dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Great Basin. Slight ridge develops over Montana on Tuesday with warm moist airmass lifting across the edge of the colder Canadian high.
430 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Warmer, but damp weather can be expected early this week.
As for temperatures, a weak west-southwest downslope flow will set up across western Kansas later today as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will usher warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures climbing well above 5C late in the day.
A few locations across western and far northern Oklahoma will see dense fog briefly with temperatures at or just below freezing. However, this is expected to be short lived with slight moisture advection and radiative effects of advancing stratus warming temperatures back above freezing.
Expect morning lows in the low-mid 60s interior and north, and lingering the upper 60s metro areas. /issued 326 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017/ Strong and deep high pressure remains well in control of the region, keeping benign weather conditions in place through the forecast period. Models move the center of the high basically right over South Florida by Monday, which will turn winds more SSE by mid week. This will combine with a 500 mb ridge, which model solutions show anchoring just south of the state, to bring warmer temperatures across the area.
The next pcpn on the horizon comes with the weekend system, and it will feature our next punch of cooler air, so it leads to the possibility of some mixed or frozen pcpn.
Another mild and dry day is expected Tuesday with temperatures back into the low 60s.
Models are in good agreement with the closed upper low over northwestern Mexico slowing moving east and opening up as it passes over the South Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening.
As of mid afternoon, regional radar imagery showed an area of showers generally along and east of the I-65 corridor across the lower Ohio Valley. Readings were in the low to mid 40s with overcast skies. As we head into this evening, the low levels of the atmosphere will begin to moisten and saturate from the surface to about 850 mb. Plan on lows in the low 40s. This should keep our highs held down to the low to mid 50s. Lows Monday night will stay in the low to mid 40s.
The ridge will continue to flatten today, with lingering moisture noted across Baker County of Oregon, and the West Central and Boise Mountains of Idaho. The flow looks to turn nearly zonal by Tuesday morning, with a shift to more southwesterly on Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough. Temperatures across the area will continue to warm, with values expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal by Tuesday.
This pattern will help to keep a warmer airmass in place over the Ozarks.
1130 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 After a cooler day today, warmer weather will return for the start of the workweek. Short term models are in good agreement that the low cloud cover will scatter/erode by evening and with decreasing cloud cover tonight, temps should drop to the teens/20s for lows. Sunshine, downslope winds and airmass change of 7C at H8 will lead to a much warmer day with highs in the 50s.
An amplified pattern continues over the area with a closed upper low sitting just west of El Paso this morning. The upper low will open up and lift northeast across the area today into Tuesday.
Clouds overnight kept lows up into the lower 40s over much of the area. Towards mid week a mid-level closed low becomes cut off over the western US.
1111 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 A strong jet streak will work into the Northern Plains late tonight into Monday which will allow a westerly component to the low level flow. Went just a touch warmer on Monday given dry ground and westerly component, so looking at mid 50s in south central SD to mid 40s in southwest MN. While some cooler air will settle south Monday night, temperatures will still be well above normal with the colder air bottled up in ND and northern MN.
233 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 High pressure will be situated off the Southeast Coast today with a stalled front near the area promoting a slight chance of rain.
1225 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Weak high pressure will extend across central NC today, then move offshore on Tuesday.
1110 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Currently there is split upper level flow over the US with zonal flow along the US/Canadian border and a cut off low and broad ridging over the southeast US.
As low level winds become more SE Monday evening atop a very moist and cool ground, should see cigs lowering to LIFR once again after 00Z, with areas of FG developing over much of the region as a warm front begins to advance NNW into E TX/N LA from SE TX/S LA.
While clouds will likely hang on into Tuesday, temperatures will remain mild ahead of the next weak cold front which will slip through the area Tuesday evening.
1234 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Warmer, but damp weather can be expected through Tuesday. The chance for measurable precip will continue to diminish and temperature is expected to remain above freezing for all areas. For the most part, temperatures remain above freezing, with marginal readings along the I 80 corridor where minimal precip is anticipated.
Moisture in the low levels is trapped by a subsidence inversion and will be slow to leave at this time of the year with short days and low sun angles. There could be some breaks in the low clouds this afternoon as southerly surface winds increase and help mixing. A weak upper trough will move across to our north tonight, and could produce some light snow near the Michigan border with little accumulation. South winds and warm advection ahead of a weak cold front will keep temperatures from falling much at all tonight. A weak cold front moves by early Tuesday.
On warmer southwest to west flow, 850mb temps will rise to 3 to 6C. Expect the cold front to sink across across our northern counties by 03Z, and exit to our south shortly after 06Z Tuesday. While a the 00Z and 06Z run of the GFS do indicate some light snow possible over the northwestern counties 00-06Z Tuesday, the main change will be increased cloud cover, a northwesterly turn to the winds, and cooler air.
Evening satellite pics showing a cloud shield associated that is associated with a building ridge. Poorly defined warm front in Oregon will shift slowly east to Idaho through Tuesday, maintaining cloudy skies and a slight chance of light snow in northern mountains of our CWA.
A westerly component to the low level flow should allow at least some partial clearing today, perhaps initially in the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas given the shallowness of the moisture.
Little change outside of observed trends through 23 UTC as a mild overnight is expected behind a warm front across western North Dakota early this evening that will propagate east through the night. Late tonight/early Monday morning a Canadian cold front will begin a southward descent into ND, progressing across the state through Monday. The proceeding warm front will make for a mild Monday, particularly in central and southern areas where high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid/upper 40s. Though we could see some precipitation track with the cold front as it drops south through the forecast area.
Issued an SPS for parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa to account for patchy dense fog due to wet ground/calm winds and temperatures below freezing. Dry low levels may allow temperatures to trend slightly warmer than guidance. A cyclone moving across the middle Canadian provinces sends another surge of cooler air into the forecast area for Tuesday. Even with the cooler surge of air, as has been the case most of this fall, temperatures through the short term will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
1022 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Upper low along the AZ/Mexico border this afternoon with weakening trough lifting newrd through the srn plains. Overnight, weak nrn stream upper trough drags across the region, but will have little impact other than to stir up the wind slightly over the mountains as it passes. On Monday, westerly flow deepens across the region while upper level low pressure remains well south across NM. Should see much warmer maxes all areas as mid levels warm and downslope flow develops.
An area of low pressure along the southern Arizona border will bring scattered snow showers to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through Monday.
Later this morning through early evening warm air advection forcing will increase from the northern Finger Lakes region to the western Mohawk Valley as weak low pressure moves from central Michigan to northern New York State. Lows overnight will range from the lower to middle 30s. Upper level trof will move into eastern Canada providing continued forcing over the northern areas. Temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 40s under continued southwest flow with precipitation falling as rain showers. A weak trof associated with a Canadian low pressure system will move across NY Monday night. The cold front passes early Tuesday evening, changing rain showers back over to light snow showers.
251 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A weak warm front will lift north into the region today and will stall over the region tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday and will cross the region Tuesday evening.
Think the lower conditions will last until 18/15Z at KPEQ and KINK, but persist past 18/18Z at KMAF.
401 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Currently - A ridge extends from the Atlantic across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This flow is bringing in warm humid air, with temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points near 70. Meanwhile, deep layered ridging is in place aloft, with the mid level ridge centered over the Florida Keys.
810 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will bring fair skies, lighter winds and mild weather Monday and Tuesday with seasonal temperatures.
Satellite trends, as well as our latest near- term guidance, now suggest that lower clouds will expand across CNY/NEPA later tonight, then remain draped over the region Monday, with a moist southerly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A weak trof associated with a Canadian low pressure system will move across NY Monday night. The cold front passes early Tuesday evening, changing rain showers back over to light snow showers.
405 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 The latest surface analysis shows an area of high pressure posted up across the southeast US including much of the Ohio Valley. This is especially prevalent in the high terrain locations where more significant drops in visibility have remained the trend overnight. Tonight think the clouds will be most robust in the evening and decrease some thereafter, as the time heights do indicate slow erosion of the low level moisture layer from the top down. This low level moisture in combo with upper level jets will keep the potential for drizzle overnight into Monday. This low level moisture will continue to promote IFR or lower CIGs through much of the TAF cycle and then some improvements are possible to round out the period to lower MVFR.
Further south, a closed low was present over swrn Arizona and was part of a trough of low pressure which extended from Wyoming into Baja California. Upstream of this feature, high pressure was located over the eastern Pacific with a ridge extending northeast into Washington state. At the surface: A trough of low pressure extended from eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming while a cold front extended from western Oklahoma into northwestern Missouri and southern Iowa. Warm air advection with the lower tropospheric wind backing from southerly to westerly will promote warming temperatures on Monday.
1017 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over eastern portions of the Northern Plains with light southerly winds across much of the area. Ridge is beginning to rebuild over the Pacific NW. Mild and mainly dry weather will return for the first half of the week as the building ridge to the west gradually shifts east into the Plains.
The lowest ceilings and drizzle have been primarily confined to locations west of the Illinois River and along/east of the I-57 corridor. Current IR satellite imagery shows the back edge of the low clouds well to the west from central Iowa to eastern Kansas. Warmest day of the forecast period still appears to be Tuesday, as ample sunshine and mild W/SW winds ahead of an approaching cold front push high temperatures well into the 50s.
Fog will eventually lift out, but the low ceilings look to linger through at least a good portion of the upcoming day.
314 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 High pressure will be situated off the Southeast Coast today with a stalled front near the area promoting a slight chance of rain.
456 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Warmer, but damp weather can be expected early this week.
And believe this may be freezing rain to start with before changing to snow. The first round of colder air will move in as a cold front moves through.
Low level clouds over us are helping to keep temperatures a bit warmer, which should hopefully stave off dense radiation fog from forming. This should last into the morning with the low clouds helping to block out some of the sun and keeping the fog around.
Low temperatures will range through the lower 40s. For Tuesday, a southern stream low pressure system will approach the area bringing in light rain to southern KY later in the day.
Closed upper low over northwest Mexico to track east early this week across the southwestern states and southern Rockies. The closed upper low should weaken with the best lift and moisture remaining south and east of the forecast area. Cold front to push through the Panhandles Tuesday with dry conditions continuing.
Forecast Confidence is Light precipitation continues across the region early this morning, mostly in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle, though a few snowflakes have been mixing in on occasion. Temperatures south of I-94 are generally above freezing, with readings at or a degree or so below freezing north. Thus far, impacts from any freezing precipitation have been little to none, with pavement temps seemingly a couple of degrees warmer than ambient air temps, and thus just above freezing. Temperatures tonight are expected to fall back into the low to mid 30s area-wide.
Tomorrow, the northward progression of a warm front will usher in an onshore flow with rising cloud decks. On Monday, models develop a warm front along the coastal low and moves it north of our area, bringing southerly flow back at the surface. Increasing surface temperatures and an approaching mid-level trough will increase instability, so have kept thunder in the forecast starting Monday afternoon. Monday night into Tuesday the mid-level trough moves into West Texas with most of the best upper level support keeping rain chances in the northern counties overnight.