Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 (Today and tonight) The center of a large upper level low was located across Crockett County, with an upper level trough of low pressure located between the Big Bend and Del Rio. Models show the upper level low pressure system slowly drifting to the east and reaching San Saba this evening.
The rest of Saturday then looks to be slightly cooler yet still warm and see light winds. A stronger cold front will push through Saturday night bringing the next threat for widespread strong to severe storms.
349 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected tonight under building high pressure. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period under the influence of building high pressure.
Previous discussion: An upper ridge continues to flatten over the western half of the country.
159 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A mid/upper ridge remains anchored over the Southwest with the ridge axis extending downstream over the Central Rockies and into the Northern Plains. A persistence-type forecast is anticipated through the upcoming week with seasonably mild temperatures expected The subtle mid/upper trough that lifted out of the Southern Plains is progged to become stationary across the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley area through the entire period. Afternoon scattered clouds in the lower VFR category have developed once more and should diminish by sunset.
1129 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 With ridging still present overhead, today's weather should be comparable to yesterday, with mostly calm and dry conditions.
May have to add a few degrees yet to the highs for today. An upper level ridge over the northern Rockies will shift eastward today, bringing another day of much above average temperatures. While the short wave will flatten the ridge some on Saturday, low level temperatures remain the same as today, with highs reaching the 90s, to around 100 degrees. Early on in the forecast period, there is that cold front trying to work south and east through the CWA.
147 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 At 1 PM, a strong ridge of high pressure was producing sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Low temperatures will in the lower and mid 60s in central and north-central Wisconsin and range from the mid-60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Saturday night will be another warm night across the region with low temperatures in the lower to mid-60s in central and north- central Wisconsin and range from the mid-60s to lower 70s elsewhere.
Will continue to hold off on any issuing any high wind highlights due to the isolated and likely brief nature of the higher wind gusts.
Despite the clear sky, the increased warm air advection will push overnight temperatures several degrees warmer than last night, while also lowering the risk of river valley fog.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 88 68 84 69 / 0 20 20 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 87 66 85 68 / 0 20 10 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 65 85 66 / 0 10 10 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 85 61 86 64 / 0 10 0 30 20.
Otherwise, look for low temperatures to drop into the lower 60s for tonight. Highs will be in the low to middle 80s tomorrow afternoon.
This will be due to a slowly moving, mainly mid level, low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains.
925-850mb thermal ridge this afternoon is centered from the Black Hills to the Arrowhead, with it shifting more from Aberdeen to Duluth on Saturday.
311 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Little change to the overall pattern this afternoon with the upper low still spinning over Texas and northern stream energy well north of the forecast area near the US/Canada border. The pressure gradient tightens slightly tonight and a LLJ of 35-40 kts around 925mb will likely keep surface winds a bit stronger and temps a bit warmer than the past few nights; lows will fall into the mid 60s.
231 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 While the persistent ridge is flattening somewhat, today will be the hottest day of the year thus far at many locations, generally around 20F above normal. Temperatures will cool slightly on Saturday (though still well above normal) as a cold front approaches northwestern Wyoming. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds on Saturday, likely leading to elevated fire weather conditions in the lower elevations.
SE TX continues to lie on the east side of a slow moving upper level low over Central Texas. The upper low begins to shift north but SE TX will remain on the favored side of this feature for additional showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. The upper level low will move further east and north Saturday night with the deeper moisture and lift shifting east. Am expecting some breaks in the cloud cover on Saturday amd will go a bit warmer with MaxT values.
The notable change with this forecast period is that the low is starting to position itself much closer to the Four-States region, before slowly shifting north into the long- term. Highs tomorrow will likely range in the upper 70s north, to the low 80s south.
Lows tonight, with more moisture arriving slowly will be warmer, generally in the lower to mid 60s. A large, sprawling upper level ridge will reside over the entire mid section of North America through the forecast, but a weakness in the low, possibly in a Rex Block pattern, will be present near and south of our area.
417 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the southwest CONUS into the Upper Mississippi Valley resulting in nearly zonal flow through southern Canada. Saturday, outflow from the overnight convection should help push cooler marine layer into the north. Temps will also vary widely with readings climbing at or above 90 inland but remaining much cooler near the Great Lakes.
A few small, very weak waves, the last remnants of this week's troughy pattern, will continue to cross the region before sliding to our east this evening. The broad, flat upper-level ridge responsible for the current regime change will then continue to slowly build northward into the southern Great Lakes through Saturday.
High pressure east of the forecast area is giving a general southerly flow around 10 mph. The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis in combo with mid level water vapor is showing a broad upper level ridge extending from the SW portion of the country up into the central and northern Plains. The main wx feature for tonight on through the weekend will be the presence of the strong upper ridge in combination with strong WAA on southerly flow at the surface, to bring above normal temperatures to the area.
An unsettled pattern continues with an upper level trough gradually shifting east across the northeastern U. Over the south-central Plains, a cutoff upper level low slowly gyrates over Texas through Saturday. Overnight lows will be warm, a tic warmer than the previous night with lows generally at or around 70 degrees.
The forecast area will remain on the dry, northwest/west, subsident side of an upper level low centered over southwest Texas midday today with the low to make a slow movement to the northeast.
139 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 We have some fair-weather cu over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with high pressure and subsidence aloft keeping clouds squashed. Once the sun sets, these clouds should dissipate, but we will have high clouds moving up from the south as the trough over central Texas shifts eastward, ramping back up southerly flow aloft. Southerly flow will be advecting in moisture over the weekend as the upper-trough and low pressure system slowly drifts into east Texas and the Mississippi River Valley over the weekend.
By mid day Saturday, an upper low over TX/OK will slowly work its way eastward, and may help provide support for diurnally initiated showers and thunderstorms.
251 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Very little change in the overall weather pattern today through Saturday night as strong ridging noses into the Central Plains with a closed low over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will remain particularly warm lee of the MN Buffalo Ridge, where locally enhanced downslope flow will hold temperatures in the 70s. Temperatures overnight will only fall to the mid 60s to lower 70s, again locally warmer east of the MN Buffalo Ridge.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a warm front lifting northeast across far northern Wisconsin early this afternoon. A cold front will move into the Lake Superior region late and some showers could reach as far southeast as the western Upper Peninsula. The cold front may drop as far south as the Upper Peninsula.
Not much change expected through Saturday, as the upper trough remains parked well west of the area and dry mid-level air is still in place across much of the forecast area.
257 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U. and a trough in the east this morning. This will help to flatten the top of the ridge over the upper Great Lakes a bit today as it tries to build into the area.
Tomorrow rain and storm chances will continue to increase as a upper low centered across North East Texas makes a slow easterly transition. Since we have moved into summer time patterns diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected with highs mainly in the lower 80s. /JNE/ Tomorrow night through Friday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a cutoff low meandering over northeast Texas while northern stream jet energy carves out a trough over the Pacific Northwest.
229 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Building high pressure allows for dry weather to return today through the weekend. Much drier weather is on tap for today in the wake of a H5 trough now cruising towards the eastern seaboard. Light showers may attempt to sprout across the higher terrain in the afternoon, but with a lack of upper level support POPs will be small in size with very little sustainability. Temperatures across southeast Ohio have already risen into the low 80s today with other areas also attempting to reach such readings given the lessening cloud shield overhead. Highs on Saturday will climb even higher into the 80s across the lowlands amid sufficient diurnal heating.
201 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 An approaching cold front will pass through by midnight. High pressure will then build to the west this weekend.
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Weak ridging is slowly pushing off to the east into the Ohio Valley with a weak trough moving into the Northern Rockies.
330 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 An upper level low pressure trough will be over Texas for the next few days, which will enhance the rain chances for our area.
Zonal flow aloft takes over by Saturday with broad longwave ridging encompassing the northern central US and Canada.
Meanwhile, a sharp upper level ridge is building northeastwards through the Yucatan and across Florida and the Bahamas. Forecast - Over the next couple of days the upper level ridge will continue to strengthen as a southern stream trough remains anchored over Texas and a trough aloft over the northeast lifts out.
1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 High pressure will move east of the area today. Better chances for convection will be seen for Sat into Sat night as an upper level closed low over TX lifts north into the Red River Valley region of TX/OK. This will put AR downstream of this upper low under S/SW flow aloft.
Deep layer shear will remain quite low though with upper ridging still present so these should be only hit-or-miss/pulse showers and storms, peaking in coverage with the diurnal cycle during the afternoon/early evening hours.
230 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A warm, dry, and quiet afternoon and evening in store for the region today as high pressure and upper level ridging continues its presence over much of the western US. Overnight lows tonight from the low 50s to low 60s.
This afternoon, an upper-level trough is situated over the northeastern CONUS with low to mid-level Atlantic ridging extending westward into the Southeastern states. Otherwise, similar conditions tomorrow as the upper low slowly moves towards the ArkLaTex region.
Dry conditions expected overnight as ridging builds across the region. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period under the influence of building high pressure.
350 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Scattered thunderstorms will move out of Northeast PA late this afternoon as high pressure builds toward our region. Much warmer temperatures will arrive for the weekend. Gusty south winds will push a much warmer airmass into NY and PA Saturday.
Upper ridge will weaken further today as slightly cooler air arrives from the west. Temperatures will be hot once again, however, with highs in the 90s across the lower valleys.
Upper ridging over the southeast CONUS will amplify on Saturday, and rising mid-level heights will result in another dry day, with temps pushing a few degrees above normal.
1121 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, and satellite shows mostly clear skies across the northern plains. Thermal ridge axis will move over the CWA today and Saturday, resulting in hot temperatures both days.
149 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Building high pressure allows for dry weather to return today through the weekend. Much drier weather is on tap for today in the wake of a H5 trough now cruising towards the eastern seaboard. Light showers may attempt to sprout across the higher terrain in the afternoon, but with a lack of upper level support POPs will be small in size with very little sustainability. Temperatures across southeast Ohio have already risen into the low 80s today with other areas also attempting to reach such readings given the lessening cloud shield overhead. Highs on Saturday will climb even higher into the 80s across the lowlands amid sufficient diurnal heating.
335 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A warm front will move northeast of the area tonight. High pressure will move northeast through West Virginia overnight and become absorbed into the high pressure off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. The ridge will extend back west to the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
328 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Quiet conditions are expected through the short term as upper level ridging persists.
1127 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Convection to again develop over the higher terrain and move to the south and southwest.
1130 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A significant blocking pattern has developed over the last few days with upper level ridging spanning across the west/southwestern portion of the CONUS. Deep subsidence greatly helped promote very warm and dry conditions yesterday, with Cheyenne's daytime highs in the low 80s. Main concerns exist with the latest model runs indicating that the main energy for the upcoming precipitation might be a bit too far to the north as a frontal boundary is pushing eastward across the northwestern portion of Montana and high pressure just off to the south near the Rockie Mountains.
There will be a few fair weather cumulus around however highs in the lower 80s are likely. Skies will likely remain mostly clear tonight with similar conditions as tonight, perhaps a few degrees warmer as winds will not be as light.
732 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Quiet conditions are expected through the short term as upper level ridging persists.
Otherwise, nocturnal cooling and arrival of large scale subsidence behind exiting upper trough will ensure fair weather the rest of the night. Upper level ridging over the Grt Lks will expand eastward into Pennsylvania Saturday, providing fair and significantly warmer conditions. Ensemble mean 800mb temps of 12-13C and mainly sunny skies should support high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s over the Alleghenies, to around 90F in the Susquehanna Valley (5-15F above average). Fair weather is expected beneath building ridge Saturday night. Building ridge aloft will bring warmer and slightly lower dewpoint air to the region this weekend.
320 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Hot temperatures remain in the forecast as high pressure remains in control over the desert southwest. As expected, plenty of afternoon heating caused some convection to fire this afternoon over the higher terrain with cells drifting southward.
405 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Strong upper level ridge over the region is slowly flattening in response to a Pacific jet in western Canada. Main upper trof along the BC coast will push into the northern Rockies tomorrow. Mid level temps tomorrow will be a bit cooler, and shear greater, so it looks as if convection will have a better chance of producing larger hail. in addition to strong wind gusts which will again be the higher risk. Cold front will finally bring cooler Pacific air tomorrow night.
Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s look reasonable based on no cloud cover, current dew points and winds. A few small, very weak waves, the last remnants of this week's troughy pattern, will continue to cross the region before sliding to our east this evening. The broad, flat upper-level ridge responsible for the current regime change will then continue to slowly build northward into the southern Great Lakes through Saturday.
525 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 While the persistent ridge is flattening somewhat, today will be the hottest day of the year thus far at many locations, generally around 20F above normal. Temperatures will cool slightly on Saturday (though still well above normal) as a cold front approaches northwestern Wyoming. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds on Saturday, likely leading to elevated fire weather conditions in the lower elevations.
312 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Strong upper level ridge over the region is slowly flattening in response to a Pacific jet in western Canada. Main upper trof along the BC coast will push into the northern Rockies tomorrow. Mid level temps tomorrow will be a bit cooler, and shear greater, so it looks as if convection will have a better chance of producing larger hail. in addition to strong wind gusts which will again be the higher risk. Cold front will finally bring cooler Pacific air tomorrow night.
Weakening high pressure will still linger over the Great Basin continuing the hot weather over the silver state. Weakening high pressure will still linger over the Great Basin continuing the hot weather over the silver state.
Otherwise, with the ll thermal profile/925mb temperatures being similar on Saturday to today along with sunshine and dry soils/drought conditions, highs should be similar and may be a few degrees warmer. The first short wave and surface front/trough was bringing high based showers/storms off to our northwest this afternoon. Otherwise, a stronger short wave trough and surface cold front will affect our region again Saturday night affecting mainly north central sd with scattered showers and storms. With dew points mixing out into the upper 50s to the lower 60s on Saturday afternoon, heat index values may reach 100 degrees or slightly higher for some locations and are not expected to be widespread.
759 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 An approaching low pressure trough will pass through by midnight. High pressure will then build to the west this weekend.
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Very little change in the overall weather pattern today through Saturday night as strong ridging noses into the Central Plains with a closed low over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will remain particularly warm lee of the MN Buffalo Ridge, where locally enhanced downslope flow will hold temperatures in the 70s. Temperatures overnight will only fall to the mid 60s to lower 70s, again locally warmer east of the MN Buffalo Ridge.
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Building high pressure allows for dry weather through the weekend. Much drier weather is on tap for today in the wake of a H5 trough now cruising towards the eastern seaboard. Light showers may attempt to sprout across the higher terrain in the afternoon, but with a lack of upper level support POPs will be small in size with very little sustainability. Temperatures across southeast Ohio have already risen into the low 80s today with other areas also attempting to reach such readings given the lessening cloud shield overhead. Highs on Saturday will climb even higher into the 80s across the lowlands amid sufficient diurnal heating.
We have some fair-weather cu over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with high pressure and subsidence aloft keeping clouds squashed. Once the sun sets, these clouds should dissipate, but we will have high clouds moving up from the south as the trough over central Texas shifts eastward, ramping back up southerly flow aloft. Southerly flow will be advecting in moisture over the weekend as the upper-trough and low pressure system slowly drifts into east Texas and the Mississippi River Valley over the weekend.
Surface trof has stalled over northwestern SD-northeastern WY, where it will remain and serve as a focus for convergence tomorrow. Saturday Through Friday Saturday, another very hot day is in store with thermal ridge peaking across the region. A stronger upper wave will eject out of the northwestern CONUS trof Saturday night and drive a cold front through the Northern Plains. Moisture will again be limited, but there will be more forcing with this upper wave and associated cold front for a slightly better chance of storms, a few of which could be strong to severe.
521 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Hot temperatures remain in the forecast as high pressure remains in control over the desert southwest. As expected, plenty of afternoon heating caused some convection to fire this afternoon over the higher terrain with cells drifting southward.
High pressure ridge axis extending from Bermuda through the western Atlantic will remain in place, stretching towards the local area, through the first half of the weekend.
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 At 1 PM, a strong ridge of high pressure was producing sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Low temperatures will in the lower and mid 60s in central and north-central Wisconsin and range from the mid-60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Saturday night will be another warm night across the region with low temperatures in the lower to mid-60s in central and north- central Wisconsin and range from the mid-60s to lower 70s elsewhere.
Upper level ridging has built in over the Great Basin with northwesterly flow aloft around the ridge axis. There is expected to be clear skies and light winds overnight with lows getting back into the lower to mid 50s with decent radiational cooling. For Saturday, above normal temperatures are likely with highs reaching into the lower 90s for the first time this year across the lower elevations. However, model soundings show an inverted-V structure where if any storms move off the higher terrain they would mostly bring virga and gusty winds during the late afternoon.
802 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Building high pressure allows for dry weather to return today through the weekend. Much drier weather is on tap for today in the wake of a H5 trough now cruising towards the eastern seaboard. Light showers may attempt to sprout across the higher terrain in the afternoon, but with a lack of upper level support POPs will be small in size with very little sustainability. Temperatures across southeast Ohio have already risen into the low 80s today with other areas also attempting to reach such readings given the lessening cloud shield overhead. Highs on Saturday will climb even higher into the 80s across the lowlands amid sufficient diurnal heating.
Although, additional showers that are currently occurring over Central Mississippi in association with an upper level low pressure system will gradually lift north over the course of the overnight hours into the day Saturday. By mid day Saturday, an upper low over northern Texas will push eastward, and may help provide support for diurnally initiated showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon.