Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Biggest difference is the moisture in the low levels as pws went from 1. With the ridge starting to build in these winds have veered around to more southeasterly. An upper level trough that was moving into the upper Mississippi Valley will be tracking into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon. Although the position of the trough in combination with ample moisture in place locally would be such that numerous storms would develop, ridge of high pressure will suppress much of that development.
Hot with Heat Indices approaching 105 degrees and scattered High Pressure Ridge axis at the surface and aloft remains just south of NE FL/SE GA across the FL peninsula. Storm development will generally hold off until the early/mid afternoon hours and will allow for lots of insolation to push Max Temps into the lower to middle 90s inland and near 90 at the Atlc Coast with widespread Heat Indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.
An upper ridge builds into Montana today with mainly dry and warmer weather. The dry weather will continue tonight and Sunday morning as the ridge moves to the east.
632 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A longwave trof is slowly digging into the Mississippi Valley this morning. This trof is finally pushing the surface front which has been hanging up over Iowa down through our area. Should have good radiational cooling with temperatures dipping into the low to mid 60s in most locations.
640 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Weak wave passing through the area rotating around upper low over Manitoba continues to produce some very light rain showers over the area. Low pressure aloft was skirting along the international border. The upper level low will keep high temperatures in north central/ northeast areas below average (low 70s). While upper level ridging starts nudging into the southwest where above average highs are forecast (upper 80s).
926 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley tonight and move east on Sunday.
On day 17 of monsoon 2017 temperatures are starting off a few degrees warmer at 9 am compared to 24 hours ago.
The low level ridge axis has shifted a little south from 24 hrs ago and appears to be located across south Brevard/Osceola with SW flow to the north. Surface and mid level ridge axis will continue to ease south just a bit over the next 24 hours, sliding from north of Cape Canaveral this morning into the southern half of the CWA by late tonight. Light surface to low level flow a tad either side of due southerly about the ridge axis will allow for another day of sea breeze dominant flow in the afternoon. Favorable boating conditions expected with the low level ridge axis draped across central FL.
1254 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will pass through the area today. High pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the period, with typical summer pattern persisting across the region.
Trough of low pressure is currently along the west coast and will move through the interior during the day and into this evening.
Isolated showers have been firing off near/ahead of this low pressure and the associated cold front that was draped southward through the western lower peninsula. The air mass behind the low and front was cooler and still moist, with stratus over much of NW lower and upper Michigan. There are some indications of a little bit of a subsidence inversion possibly developing in the wake of this trough, before the MN/WI wave arrives late this afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 60s in eastern upper to the middle/upper 70s near Saginaw Bay due to the cooler air behind the front this morning. A short wave moving through the trough aloft will bring a decent chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. High pressure and associated dry air then build in for the remainder of the forecast period.
This will limit afternoon/evening convection potential to the higher terrain and will mean that any storms that develop will likely produce little precipitation. Isolated thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. The upper level pattern generally features a building ridge over the intermountain region. The atmosphere will be unstable this afternoon, especially over the higher terrain, but there is not much moisture available, so any thunderstorms that do form will produce little if any rain. so the area where isolated thunderstorms are possible was trimmed back to show the possibility only in the highest portions of the central Idaho mountains.
924 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure will bring mainly dry conditions to the area today as well as high temperatures a good 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper level ridging continues to build across the region today.
648 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the Manitoba Lakes region early this morning. This low will move into northwest Ontario by this evening continuing to Lake Superior by 12Z Sunday. Highs today will range from 65 to 70 over far northern Minnesota to the lower to middle seventies from the Brainerd Lakes region into northwest Wisconsin. Expect highs in the lower to middle seventies.
742 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front later today. An upper trough is progged to advance from the Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes region this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop along the upper trough and associated weakening cold front this afternoon.
946 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A cold front across northeast North Dakota into Saskatchewan as of 14 UTC will propagate southwest through the day. Weak wave passing through the area rotating around upper low over Manitoba continues to produce some very light rain showers over the area. Low pressure aloft was skirting along the international border. The upper level low will keep high temperatures in north central/ northeast areas below average (low 70s). While upper level ridging starts nudging into the southwest where above average highs are forecast (upper 80s).
Have indcd the highest POPS over SE AR, in the vicinity of the residual bndry/s fm this mrng/s convection.
706 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley tonight and move east on Sunday.
/issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/ The upper level trough responsible for yesterday's front will translate eastward into the Ohio Valley today with a high amplitude ridge from the desert southwest into the Canadian Rockies. Further west, the next trough axis is coming ashore the Pacific NW.
The most likely scenario is strong/severe storms will roll off the high plains into portions of central KS late Sun night or early Mon morning. Wed-Fri: Warmer temps and dry conditions look to build into the region for the rest of the week, as the medium range models both suggest a large upper ridge will build into the Rockies and the High Plains. This will push convective chances well to the N-NE of the forecast area, with max temps climbing into the low to mid 90s.
0 are indicated over the region this morning, with surface dew points still holding in the lower 70s.
A trough and frontal boundary will then swing through the region tonight from the northwest to southeast. Northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan will be directly under the main trough so these areas will likely see some showers tonight and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in from the north providing quiet weather for much of the forecast area.
1209 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley tonight and move east on Sunday.
High pressure aloft will settle into the area Saturday. A weakening trough will cross the area Saturday night through Sunday, followed by the development of strong high pressure aloft across the interior west during the first half of the week.
1107 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Cold front sitting near the TN river expected to make little movement today.
High pressure will ridge across the area through the period. Temperatures will reach into the lower 90s for highs and in the 70s for lows. Heat index values will be in the lower 100s.
Expect highs to reach the lower 90s away from the beaches despite early morning cloud cover tempering thermal rises.
831 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front later today. An upper trough is progged to advance from the Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes region this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop along the upper trough and associated weakening cold front this afternoon.
721 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will pass through the area today. High pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the period, with typical summer pattern persisting across the region.
Current grids are on track with increasing winds this weekend, and indications of moisture being pulled northward ahead of the weakening trough over California on Sunday. We'll be looking at increasing our precipitation chances for Sunday afternoon and evening over the higher terrain based on latest models, but otherwise current forecast is on track. Breezy southwest flow is expected as a pacific trough moves across the western U.
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Quiet weather for most of today with mostly sunny skies and temps in the lower to mid 80s. ESRL HRRR/RAP/HRRR/Highres NMM and Nam models all suggest that some convection could develop in central NE this afternoon by 20z along a developing warm front.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 90s to 100 degrees with the cooler temperatures in the Hill Country and the warmest across the Rio Grande Plains. Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower to upper 70s with nocturnal stratus once again developing. Tomorrow afternoon will be pretty close to today with temps in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees and heat indices remaining below 103 degrees.
The highest precipitation chances will be across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
652 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 500 mb main upper low dropping south-southeast over Lake Winnipeg. Short wave and jet streak on the south and west side of the upper low is moving thru the nrn RRV at 11z as anticipated. With clouds around for much of the day in the north, highs will be mostly upper 60s while rest of the area will see 70s with far southeastern ND reaching the lower 80s where sun will be more prevelent and ground is quite a bit drier. High pressure over the area Sunday but enough moisture in the 850-700mb layer for likely cumulus development with daytime heating, especially NW Minnesota.
1159 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A longwave trof is slowly digging into the Mississippi Valley this morning. This trof is finally pushing the surface front which has been hanging up over Iowa down through our area. Should have good radiational cooling with temperatures dipping into the low to mid 60s in most locations.
743 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Aviation Low pressure will move east today with only a few lingering showers through this afternoon.
1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Temperatures are heating up late this morning already into the lower 80s with a few showers occurring during the mid to late morning across northeast Tennessee.
An upper trough has deepened the marine layer at the coast, and low clouds are close to pushing into West Side valleys this morning. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today over inland areas, thanks to morning clouds, the marine layer push, and an overall cooler air mass. As the upper trough's energy pushes east through the forecast area, it will combine with some midlevel moisture and instability to bring a slight chance for thunderstorms to portions of the East Side. Given weak steering flow we have focused thunder chances on the higher terrain of Lake and eastern Modoc Counties.
Upper level ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin this morning with a moderate northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Warmer temperatures this afternoon as airmass becomes well mixed but very little moisture to work with. Skies will become mostly clear tonight as high pressured ridge moves over western Colorado. There is a trend toward a little slower and drier with the Sunday trough. This could also produce an area of wind from the trough itself and/or convective outflow. The best chance of rain during the period looks like Sunday evening as the trough and whatever outflow winds there may be get into better moisture on the plains. After that, it is just hot under the ridge.
Once the previously mentioned storm system moves east of the region, high pressure will slowly build from west to east across California before settling farther east across the four corners region. Meanwhile, a semi-stationary trough of low pressure will develop across the east Pacific, placing California directly between the two regimes.
Today: Aloft, the region will sit on the southern periphery of a broad mid/upper level trough that stretches from the Upper Midwest, to the Ohio Valley, and even into New England.
1205 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front later this afternoon. Although the radar at noon shows no upstream precipitation, scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop along the upper trough and associated weakening cold front this afternoon.
An upper low over the northeast U. The clouds and NNE surface breezes will keep temperatures in check today, with highs most places in the lower and middle 70s, except for areas along and east of I-75 that will likely stay in the 60s. That's 10-15 degrees cooler than normal. There will be no need for the A/C as the mercury drops into the lower and middle 50s.
Early this morning, an elongated E/W oriented mid level trof extended from New England west across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This trof and its embedded PVA is forecast to shift south today, across the east 1/2 of our area as well.
Temperatures are very refreshing with the lower humidity values. Most places are in the lower to middle 50s across the Ozarks. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 with temperatures back down in the lower to middle 50s tonight. There could be a few more upper 40s again in the cooler valleys across the eastern Ozarks.
Synopsis: short term begins with an area of hot high pressure developing over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. A ridge juts out of it toward the north through northern Idaho and British Columbia and Yukon Territory. A closed trough sets over the eastern Dakotas with northeast Montana in between under northwest flow aloft. This afternoon through Thursday Morning: As the ridge develops to the west a stable profiles will set up leaving partly cloudy to clear skies and dry conditions.
With the 500mb ridge axis remaining over the Four Corners, weak short waves will continue to support development, to some degree, through Thursday. Thursday night, in response to a Pacific Northwest low, the 500mb ridge will begin to advance, tilting eastward.
258 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 As upper level low pressure develops over the upper Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, below normal temperatures and slight chances for showers will continue through the rest of the week.
Mostly stable weather is expected over South Central TX through Thursday, but a broad and unstable N/NW flow aloft will trigger storms over the high plains and drift them south toward the area. Most high Temps for Thursday are thus a degree or two cooler than those under the mostly sunny sky for today.
259 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 High pressure will continue to bring quiet/pleasant weather to our area.
do expect at or just below normal highs to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. With strong H5/H7 ridging aloft over the Rockies into the Plains region. especially when the trough begins to shift east into the Plains region. and will be dependent on the timing of trough into the Plains.
/issued 331 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017/ Recent late evening/nocturnal convection over the last several days has been a result of weak disturbances moving overhead in persistent N/NW flow aloft as a ridge axis remains parked just west of the region.
351 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Tonight and Tomorrow: Looking across the country this afternoon, troughs of low pressure were anchored off the West Coast and along the East Coast with a broad ridge extending from Mexico through the Plains. The ArkLaMiss region has seen building high pressure at the surface under northerly flow aloft today. This "cool" and dry pattern will continue through the night and into tomorrow, with highs and lows forecast to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal.
1151 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Upper air analysis continues to show a nearly stationary ridge of high pressure over western Colorado early on Wednesday morning. Mid-level moisture remains a touch higher just to the east of this ridge axis, including the central mountains and points east over the divide.
334 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Latest satellite analysis indicates upper low spinning over northeast ND into northwest MN. Deterministic models continue the trend of an upper trough traversing the western U. Ahead of the trough we can expect a few days of very warm to hot temperatures and scattered thunderstorm chances.
Showers and cooler weather will continue behind the front through the weekend. After frontal rains depart the region during Thursday, showers and notably cooler temperatures will persist into the weekend.
The low level theta-e ridge will have a slight eastward expansion into the South Plains extending chances farther to the east. These theta-e ridges will be able to muster up only about 500-1000 J/kg of mixed layer instability. The upper level ridge just to our west will begin to move east on Thursday leading to more questionable convective chances this day. Location of any convection on Thursday is highly uncertain as well with the upper ridge on the move.
High pressure will move in this evening with winds becoming light and variable overnight. /Issued 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017/ Drier air is making its way southwestward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the wake of the back door cold front. Temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday's, likely just below normal values. Highs tomorrow will be a degree or two warmer than todays, with winds beginning to shift to a southerly direction late in the day as high pressure pushes east.
Through sunset, will carry the highest precip chances across our southern zones where stratiform rain will persist for the next several hours. Mid-level trough forecast to pass overhead while surface front and attendant weak low move closer to the region. Overnight lows in the low-mid 70s. Surface boundary and attendant low move closer to the area as the axis of the mid-level trough pushes offshore.
Wind speeds could increase today due to the tightening pressure gradient with the trough to the east and the ridge of high pressure moving in from the west.
High pressure and dry air meanwhile, lies over areas to the east.
305 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 High pressure will remain across the area through Thursday.
Large High Pressure over the Great Lakes will settle across the Indiana the Ohio valley the next several days.
240 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Low pressure at the surface and aloft across northwest Florida into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Rua Upper level trough will deepen along the east coast and absorb the system over Florida, while an upper level ridge will begin to build across the Southwest US into the Rockies.
The cold front remains stalled off the Atlantic coast this evening. It will be cooler tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico will become absorbed the northern stream upper low over the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Region by Thursday morning. allowing much drier and cooler air will filter into the area Thursday.
The degree of dry air pushing into the region, associated with the high pressure to the north, should support little in the way of diurnal cloud enhancement today. The clouds should remain southeast of metro as the high pressure nudges into the area from the northwest. Weakening upper level ridge to build into Lower Michigan through Thursday, as the upper level circulation over North Dakota early this morning shears out and tracks through the Central Great Lakes Thursday evening/night, as strong northern stream trough tracks through northern Ontario. 700 MB Theta-e ridge tracking through with steep mid level lapse rates around 7 C/KM will provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night.
and Thursday A ridge of high pressure will drift over the region today into this evening to continue a trend of abundant sunshine and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures for inland areas. Winds will turn south or southwest as the high drifts east of the area today. Focus then turns to the next chance of precipitation later tonight across the north and then over most locations Thursday as a short wave trough and frontal system drop into the state.
300 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 It's been a beautiful day across Middle Tennessee as we feel the influences of high pressure over the Great Lakes region. This high will continue to filter below average temperatures in for another 36 hours. A retrograding upper trough will approach the plateau from the northeast tomorrow which will translate to more clouds and a slight chance of a shower or two for the Cumberland Plateau.
The weather pattern begins to change later this week as an area of low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest.
Upper low continues to move slowly southward toward the area. As the upper low and associated trough move through on Thursday, better low level moisture will be in place and there should be much better chances of showers and non-severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
1121 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Upper level analysis shows a low sliding across the border of northern North Dakota and southern Manitoba as a ridge begins to amplify over the Rockies. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends through the eastern Dakotas with high pressure building over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. A lee trough is also forming in Wyoming. This moisture combined with daytime heating, may allow a few showers or storms to form over the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Hills.
235 PM PDT Wed Jun 7 2017 A cooling trend is expected to begin on Thursday as a low pressure system approaches the region. This will bring cooler than normal and breezy conditions for the weekend.
An amplified pattern aloft continues across the country with ridging over the desert southwest followed by troughing over the eastern half of the country. This trough extends all the way into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, with several impulses rotating through the flow. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains shunted to the south of the state as a broad area of low pressure and frontal boundary slowly move across the Florida panhandle.
High pressure remains entrenched over the western Great Lakes, resulting in another wonderfully cool and dry June morning for the Upper Mississippi Valley. Thursday will see near normal high temperatures across the area with dewpoints in the low 50s, setting the stage for another gorgeous day across the area.
Low pressure is centered over the Gulf south of Pensacola.
308 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 North and Central Texas remains sandwiched between an upper low on the eastern seaboard and a ridge over the Four-Corners, resulting in persistent northerly flow at essentially all levels of the troposphere. Chances are, however, that subsidence from the ridge will remain too strong, so POPs will be kept below 20 percent.