Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
313 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 A closed upper low was located over the forecast area per the 1930Z water vapor and profiler imagery. Moisture rotating around the back side of the closed low is expected to keep cloud cover over the area through tonight and into Wednesday.
Made minor tweaks to hourly temperatures through the afternoon to capture observations running a degree or two warmer than expected. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 69 59 71 57 / 30 30 70 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 72 56 71 58 / 20 20 60 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 53 71 56 70 57 / 20 20 60 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 72 51 70 57 / 20 20 40 70 90.
1124 AM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 A broad upper trough remains over the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Two low pressure systems are located in the region of the upper trough. The eastern low pressure system will continue to move northeastward into Iowa today. Deep moisture rotating around that low pressure system will bring rain to parts of south central South Dakota today.
Upper level analysis shows low pressure also over northeast KS, with broad trough covering the Rockies and Plains. Temps are mostly in the 40s, with 30s over the higher Black Hills.
/Updated at 1044 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021/ Weakening cold front is still inbound with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. The front will slow and stall overnight near the coastline before beginning the track north as a warm front tomorrow evening. Regardless of a cold, stationary, and/or warm front, rain chances will continue through the entire short term period.
12Z upper air maps show a highly amplified configuration to the geo-potential height field aloft over the CONUS with a large scale trof west of the MS River and downstream ridging off the southeast US coast. The lead energy in the upper trof over the central Plains was shearing out to the northeast and has resulted in a strong negative tilt to the upper flow over the Mid MS River Valley/Mid-South.
Short term models show showers increasing in coverage late this afternoon into early this evening as the associated weakening cold front pushes toward and into our region. On Wednesday, a weak upper level ridge will briefly pass over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
1226 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 GOES-16 Water Vapor showing a weak mid-level trough ejecting northeast across IA/western IL. Moisture surge ahead of this trough along with mid-level f-gen was producing widely scattered showers across southeast MN into northern WI. Meanwhile, a vigorous closed low was churning along the OK/TX border -our next weather maker through the next 24-36 hours. This closed low will lift northward into the region this afternoon and across our area tonight into Wednesday. Rain finally exits the area by evening as the low continues to pull northeast into Canada and a weak ridge of high pressure builds in.
High pressure remains over the region which will enable a light wind and generally rain-free conditions. A low pressure system pushing across the Midwestern United States will drag an associated cold front south and east but the high pressure will hold over the region with the low moving into eastern Canada which will keep the front from reaching peninsular Florida. Temperatures will steadily increase on Wednesday with some portions of the interior of the peninsula reaching into the lower to mid 80s. Areas closer to the coast could again see an onshore breeze that helps to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler.
/Issued 318 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021/ An upper low will continue lifting northeast across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest this evening and tonight, while southwesterly flow associated with the larger-scale upper trough increases deep-layer moisture across the Southeast.
711 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Upper level subsidence in the wake of yesterday's upper level low pressure system left mostly clear skies across the state as of 00Z this evening.
652 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 All TAF sites are currently sitting at VFR flight categories, but a warm front will move north tonight, reintroducing heavy cloud cover.
608 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 A cold front will move through the area this evening, bringing rain and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong.
A low pressure system will slowly move east of the region tonight leaving high pressure in its wake for Wednesday.
338 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 GOES satellite imagery showed a potent upper low over eastern NE/KS and another upper low over northwest AZ. A short wave ridge was centered along the WY/CO Front Range, along with a weak 700mb thermal ridge. The upper low over AZ tonight will move east into NM Wednesday then transition to a trough over the southern High Plains Wednesday night. The cool and unsettled pattern will continue through the end of the week with a persistent mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS.
645 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Widespread rain continues through most of the short-term period in association with the upper low lifting into Iowa on early afternoon water vapor satellite. We dry out by Wednesday evening, with temperatures expected to dip to near or below freezing in most spots on Wednesday night.
559 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021 GOES satellite imagery showed a potent upper low over eastern NE/KS and another upper low over northwest AZ. A short wave ridge was centered along the WY/CO Front Range, along with a weak 700mb thermal ridge. The upper low over AZ tonight will move east into NM Wednesday then transition to a trough over the southern High Plains Wednesday night. The cool and unsettled pattern will continue through the end of the week with a persistent mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS.
The convection will begin near the coast before working inland along with the warm front through the afternoon.
Lower clouds still hanging around parts of northeast OK and northwest AR near the KS/MO borders, although expect these to continue to clear as the upper cyclones lifts north.
706 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 A cold front will move through the area this evening, bringing rain and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong.
As remnant moisture associated with upper level trough moves across mid state region thru 24/18Z, some shwrs possibly.
Clouds associated with exiting upper low will continue to clear most of the area this evening and tonight.
A closed upper low was located over the forecast area per the 1930Z water vapor and profiler imagery. Moisture rotating around the back side of the closed low is expected to keep cloud cover over the area through tonight and into Wednesday.
We'll have a breezy overnight ahead of a cold front over the mid-Mississippi Valley attached to low pressure crossing Iowa. Tonight, a low pressure system, currently over eastern Kansas, will continue towards Lake Superior.
Temps fall quickly from the 50s to the low 40s and then 30s. Colder air will take time to reach east of the Red River valley as Minnesota forecast area more affected by low pressure that will move from near Des Moines to Rochester tonight. Generally looking at a tenth to half an inch of rain turning to light snow in some places overnight especially the higher elevations. Much cooler tomorrow behind the front with 30s and 40s as mostly cloudy skies persist into the afternoon.
Surface analysis shows weak low pressure centered off the Carolina coast, with a weak trough extending SSW from this low toward South Florida. This will allow high pressure to begin building westward from the Atlantic into Florida, and will bring our low level winds around to SE late tonight. Overnight low temps should be reached around midnight, with steady to slowly rising temps thereafter as SE flow off the warmer waters of the Florida Straits begins.
959 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 As the inverted trough has pushed east, the deformation band has weakened some, although is looking a bit more organized than it did earlier this evening. Short term high- resolution guidance indicates precipitation associated with this trough/deformation zone will last through the evening hours and could transition to snow further south/west, but little to now accumulation is expected as precipitation should be diminishing by the time many locations transition.
Ridging from the N Carib up the Eastern Seaboard to strengthen in time as southerly low level flow increases starting tomorrow. /issued 216 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021/ Ridging aloft will continue to build over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. At the surface, an area of low pressure lingering off the Carolinas coast will finally move away from the region, with high pressure then extending across Florida.
837 PM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north will weaken by mid-week.
220 PM PDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Brisk conditions remain through this evening with strong easterly winds over the Sierra ridges.
A cold front will work its way into western parts of the area, with some weak forcing with it thus will keep chance PoPs with this. Winds will shift from SE to SW overnight as the low tracks NW of the forecast area. A dry slot will move in tomorrow, and while the cold front looks to remain in the area, there won't be any upper support. Models show another upper trough advancing towards the region late tomorrow night which will bring a chance of more rain moving in from the SW starting a few hours before sunrise.
606 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) (Tonight and Wednesday) Southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the area tonight into Wednesday, ahead of an upper level trough developing over the Desert Southwest. The upper level trough will move east across New Mexico on Wednesday and into West Texas by Wednesday evening. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the low to mid 70s, with a few upper 70s over far southeast areas. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Cold front moves through Wednesday night. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the evening, the better lift and moisture will occur after midnight as an upper trough move east across West Texas.
These clouds will help to lock in some warmer temperatures during the overnight hours. /issued 652 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021/ All TAF sites are currently sitting at VFR flight categories, but a warm front will move north tonight, reintroducing heavy cloud cover.
Tonight, a low pressure system, currently over eastern Kansas, will continue towards Lake Superior.
GOES satellite imagery showed a potent upper low over eastern NE/KS and another upper low over northwest AZ. A short wave ridge was centered along the WY/CO Front Range, along with a weak 700mb thermal ridge. The upper low over AZ tonight will move east into NM Wednesday then transition to a trough over the southern High Plains Wednesday night. The cool and unsettled pattern will continue through the end of the week with a persistent mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS.
This evening through Wednesday night Upper lows over KS/NE and another over the Desert Southwest were slowly pinwheeling eastward today. Conditions gradually improve from the northwest late tonight as a trough axis and associated deformation zone slide east. Weak lee troughing will allow for a southwest breeze in the Wind Corridor Wednesday, but nothing beyond 15-25 mph. Wednesday temperatures will be warmer, albeit still 5 to 10 degrees below normal for many locales.
A deep and strengthening anticyclone will meander over the Florida Peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters, resulting in significant large scale descent, limited moisture below 850 mb and east to southeast breezes. The aforementioned strong high pressure cell will slowly be pressed equatorward, but with an absence of mid and upper level lift along with scant moisture. For the balance of this week and into this weekend, mainly moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes, with the highest winds expected on the Straits of Florida will predominate on our entire marine district.
Afternoon highs are expected to range from the mid 50s over east central KS to the low 70s along the MO/AR border south and southeast of West Plains.
A mid level ridge will build across south Florida and the Bahamas today, as the low pressure system sitting off the east US coast lifts north-northeastward. A well developed upr ridge near Cuba will extend across the state, including the local gulf and Atlc waters into the weekend.
245 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Picturesque stacked low pressure is currently centered over north central IA early this morning and progged to continue a north/northeast trajectory though the morning hours today. At this point, any snow accumulations seem unlikely Drier and cooler northwesterly flow will begin to clear out the cloud cover from west to east through the afternoon hours, although some indication this clearing may begin to stall out as it approaches the I-29 corridor.
253 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 H5 trough continues to move across the Four Corners region, with weak ridging trying to build across Wyoming this morning.
225 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 GOES Water Vapor/RAP 500mb analysis showing closed low slowly making its way across IA as of early this morning. For today, the closed low will continue to slowly churn northeastward into WI with scattered showers continuing in broad cyclonic flow/lift. As the low pulls more into northern WI by this afternoon, plan on increasing west/northwest winds with gusts 20-30 mph. A few showers linger across north central WI this evening but then a weak ridge of high pressure starts to work on breaking up cloud cover with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Upper level subsidence in the wake of yesterday's upper level low pressure system left mostly clear skies across the state as of 00Z this evening.
321 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Interesting forecast for today and tonight as vigorous upper low over Arizona early this morning is expected to push east through New Mexico. Surface temperatures were in the lower 40s in that area early this morning and it is quite likely that the 12z temperature could end up being the high for the day for locations around Friona and Dimmitt. Depending on the snowfall rates that materialize, could see temperature fall into the middle 30s to just above freezing this afternoon. Precipitaion chances are expected to quickly exit the region this evening as the upper low lifts northeast from from NE New Mexico and the Western Panhandle away from our area.
Today: Rain is expected to come to an end within the next few hours as the weakening low pressure system slowly moves off to the northeast.
It was a tale of two cyclones at midnight, the departing one over Iowa and the next one in the pipeline over Arizona. Morning temperatures in the lower to mid 30s with increasing clouds. 00z NAM/GFS hold 850 mb temperatures near freezing (0C) and thickness near 540, with stronger cold advection dropping 700 mb temperatures to -8C by evening. Kept some minor slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces on the higher terrain of the western/southwest zones today (<1 inch). Even where precipitation can change completely over to snow, a warm ground will keep roadways wet, and surface temperatures above freezing will make it very difficult for flakes to accumulate.
1216 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 A cold front will move through the area this evening, bringing rain and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong.
129 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 The low pressure system that brought a little precipitation to the area yesterday and overnight will continue to move off to the east today. Drier high pressure moving in from the northwest will gradually clear out the clouds, with skies becoming mostly sunny by this afterernoon.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 58 72 58 73 / 20 70 90 90 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 55 70 58 70 / 10 40 80 90 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 55 69 57 71 / 20 40 90 90 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 49 71 57 70 / 20 20 80 90 10 TN.
1047 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Widespread rain continues through most of the short-term period in association with the upper low lifting into Iowa on early afternoon water vapor satellite. We dry out by Wednesday evening, with temperatures expected to dip to near or below freezing in most spots on Wednesday night.
This may be a sign that the wraparound lift/upper deformation zone from the large upper level low pressure area to our southeast may be weakening.
Currently, a cold front was over eastern Arkansas and eastern Louisiana. Temperatures will once again be above normal today with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the front will retreat back to the northwest as a warm front. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front over east Texas and move along the front. As the low approaches the region, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the Mid-South from south to north.
248 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 A closed upper low was centered over northeast IA while another closed low was located near the AZ and NM border. Lows will fall below freezing mostly in the upper 20s.
The clouds and weak CAA will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. With showers and plenty of clouds around, temperatures will once again on the cool side, once again in the low to mid 50s.
147 AM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north will weaken by mid-week.
1258 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) (Tonight and Wednesday) Southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the area tonight into Wednesday, ahead of an upper level trough developing over the Desert Southwest. The upper level trough will move east across New Mexico on Wednesday and into West Texas by Wednesday evening. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the low to mid 70s, with a few upper 70s over far southeast areas. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Cold front moves through Wednesday night. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the evening, the better lift and moisture will occur after midnight as an upper trough move east across West Texas.
233 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Quiet weather day today for southern Montana and northern Wyoming, with backing flow as flat ridging slides across Montana. Gradients will be downslope today, so expect warmer temperatures with some "breeziness" developing at Livingston with mixing kicking in. The next in a series of upstream troughs dives into Idaho tonight and this will increase the chance of higher elevation snow showers.
(This evening through Wednesday) (Tonight and Wednesday) Southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the area tonight into Wednesday, ahead of an upper level trough developing over the Desert Southwest. The upper level trough will move east across New Mexico on Wednesday and into West Texas by Wednesday evening. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the low to mid 70s, with a few upper 70s over far southeast areas.
Currently, an upper level low is moving east into New Mexico. This low will continue east today while opening up into a wave over as it moves east through west Texas tonight. As the upper level trough axis moves east across our area, and interacts with lift from the surface front, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected to occur after 8 PM tonight from the Concho Valley south into the I- 10 corridor.
938 PM PDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Santa Ana winds will increase behind an upper level trough tonight.
As the inverted trough has pushed east, the deformation band has weakened some, although is looking a bit more organized than it did earlier this evening. Short term high- resolution guidance indicates precipitation associated with this trough/deformation zone will last through the evening hours and could transition to snow further south/west, but little to now accumulation is expected as precipitation should be diminishing by the time many locations transition.
Expect dry conditions, today, with gusty winds and warmer temperatures.
Expect some additional snow accumulations over the higher elevations.
608 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Picturesque stacked low pressure is currently centered over north central IA early this morning and progged to continue a north/northeast trajectory though the morning hours today. At this point, any snow accumulations seem unlikely Drier and cooler northwesterly flow will begin to clear out the cloud cover from west to east through the afternoon hours, although some indication this clearing may begin to stall out as it approaches the I-29 corridor.
354 AM PDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Warmer today with strong gusty north winds diminishing in the afternoon.
This will be a dry day between storm systems, maybe a few degrees warmer with highs in the lower 50s. The next upper trough will dig down across the high plains and split off leaving a cut off low over the desert southwest.
630 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 A closed upper low was centered over northeast IA while another closed low was located near the AZ and NM border. Lows will fall below freezing mostly in the upper 20s. On Thursday, weak upper ridging occurs over the area as an upper trough digs southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies.
532 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 The low pressure system that brought a little precipitation to the area yesterday and overnight will continue to move off to the east today. Drier high pressure moving in from the northwest will gradually clear out the clouds, with skies becoming mostly sunny by this afternoon. An area of low pressure currently over southern Alberta will move southward into the forecast area on Thursday. Breezy to windy southerly winds developing to the east of the low pressure system will lead to slightly warmer than average temperatures on Thursday afternoon.
The trough has a couple of things going for it in the snow production department.
Currently, a cold front was over eastern Arkansas and eastern Louisiana. Temperatures will once again be above normal today with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the front will retreat back to the northwest as a warm front. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front over east Texas and move along the front. As the low approaches the region, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the Mid-South from south to north. The cold front will move out of the region Thursday night with thunderstorms ending during the evening hours.
(Today and tonight) The mid-level trough situated over the desert southwest continues to approach our area, resulting in increasing cloud cover and chances for elevated showers over western OK/TX today. The NAM is the most robust with the highest dewpoints, and over a broader area (south/southeast Oklahoma) which results in higher MUCAPE values (near 1200 J/kg).
Daytime heating and increasing surface winds will mix out the low ceilings and visibilities mid to late morning. A dry cold front arrives late tonight into Thursday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s to the lower 90s under partly cloudy skies.
Pleasant weather conditions are expected today, warming to the mid 80s across the interior while the coastal areas will stay in the lower 80s.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather pattern keeping the dry conditions in place today. High temperatures this afternoon will continue to moderate as they will rise into the lower 80s over the east coast to the upper 80s over the interior sections. Any fog that does develop will lift after sunrise on Thursday and the rest of the day will remain dry as high pressure remains in control. A south to southeasterly flow will remain in place and temperatures will continue to warm as highs rise into the mid 80s over the east coast metro areas to the lower 90s over portions of Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier County.
The strong low pressure system that brought some healthy rainfall to the area has exited to the northeast and is currently situated over central Iowa. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough can be seen on water vapor imagery over the desert southwest.
756 AM PDT Wed Mar 24 2021 It will be cool and breezy today with mountain snow and mix of rain and snow in the lower elevations.