Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPS ALMOST 20 DEGS WARMER THAN LAST NGT COURTESY OF SRLY FLOW. A WARM FNT XTNDG SEWD FM THE LOW INTO KY. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE MIDWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS AROUND TO JUST AFTER 00Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA KEEPS SOME MOISTURE STUCK UNDER THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MUST CONTINUE TO STRESS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE AREA WILL BE AWAITING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
Over southeast Kansas temperatures have risen into the lower/mid 80s ahead of the approaching dry line east of Wichita and the associated cold front extending east northeast from the dryline toward the south side of KC. Model trends have been a little warmer this run so do not plan on putting any freeze headlines out with this package.
EXPECT IT TO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. THE MODELS ALL THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OUT TO SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
THIS IS OCCURRING AS A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.
The flow around the high will allow for an increase in low level moisture from east to west starting tonight. Deep layer ridging along with a more southerly low level flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area on Monday. Then, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will advance from west to east ahead of the next short wave and associated cold front.
316 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 An upper trough moving across the TX Panhandle this morning continues to weaken. A strong cold front will arrive late today with gusty northerly winds developing behind it. another UA trough will move east along the U. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night as the trough moves across the area.
Precip chances will come to an end tonight as the synoptic cold front clears our area. with cooler temps initially then gradually warming. when a deep western CONUS trough slides slowly east toward the Plains.
253 AM PDT MON APR 11 2016 A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
256 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR AN OVRNGT PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE OF A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. AND PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WAS MAINTAINED. STRONGER GUSTS WILL MIX IN MIDDAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OPENING UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TODAY FROM A SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SKIP TO THE LOWER PARAGRAPH FOR MORE INFORMATION. WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AND A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT OPEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE COAST AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL BE FUNNELING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TO START THE DAY AT LEAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST AND ATTEMPT TO RE-MOISTEN BUT THERE REMAINS DOUBT IF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS IN TIME FOR UPPER LOW PASSAGE.
THE LOW MOVES FROM ARIZONA ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE WRAPPED CIRCULATION WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SAN JUAN/S AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THOUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW OFF AND ON. AIR MASS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY PASSING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH.
311 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SWITCH TO WARMER WEATHER.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINA CST WL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND NRN GULF OF MEX. ONSHORE WINDS WITH SCT MARINE CLOUDINESS WL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SUPPRESSING CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOES WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THIS PERIOD WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE FL CENTRAL PENINSULA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WITH SE WINDS LIGHT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 7-12 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GETS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE WATERS FOR THIS PERIOD.
250 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN. IR IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS INDICATING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITHING THIS TROUGH. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AS OF 2 AM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WILL BE WATCHING THAT AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
340 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
154 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. INITIAL WV WITH SFC TROF AND BURST OF UVM AS THE WRMR AIR SLIDES OVER THE COOL SFC WILL DVLP LGT PCPN. LRG WV AND DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE LAKES FNLY PUSHES THE BNDRY EAST ON TUE. ONCE IT GETS GOING IT SEEMS TO MOVE THRU NICELY AND WILL CLR THE FCST AREA BY 18Z WITH DRIER COOLER AIR BHD.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE WEEK. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
332 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAINY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY, THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, AND LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG IT. FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN TOWARDS MID WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS, AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR FAR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS (SOUTHERN TUG HILL, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND CATSKILL ZONES), TO THE LOW-MID 50S MOST OTHER LOCALES. PERIODIC RAIN THIS EVENING, WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT, WITH A SURFACE WAVE CONNECTED TO IT, SLOWLY TRUDGES ACROSS NY AND PA. AS COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL NY TUESDAY MORNING.
In north central Kansas the skies are expected to clear sooner so afternoon temperatures here may end up being 10 to near 15 degrees warmer compared to the highs in far southwest Kansas. Light winds and clearing skies tonight will provide favorable conditions for temperatures to fall back at least into the low to mid 30s by early Tuesday morning. In this area will trend towards the cooler guidance. After a chilly start Tuesday morning the NAM and GFS models soundings indicating highs Tuesday afternoon should warm back into the low to mid 60s under a mostly sunny sky. Models this morning remain in good agreement with a warming trend mid to late week as the next upper level low exits the eastern Pacific and crosses the western United States.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. WITH INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THROUGH ABOUT 111000Z BASED ON BEST LIFT AND POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND IN THE 015-018 LAYER WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN THE KIND/KHUF/KBMG VICINITY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY, CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REBOUND ON TUESDAY, BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
538 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MUCH OF THE REGION SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR COULD STAY MAINLY DRY AFTER 14Z /AS A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY/. TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SFC COLD FRONT MARCHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH FREQUENT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING /EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SE/ AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER NW LLVL FLOW OF SHALLOW COOL AIR.
428 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 Early this morning showers and thunderstorm persist along a cold front settling south into southern Missouri. However, looking at the upcoming workweek, this cool down in temperatures wont last long as a developing trough over the eastern Pacific helps nudge an upper level ridge east across the Plains States. conditions will warm up nicely as the upper level ridge slides across the center of the Nation.
528 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR AN OVRNGT PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE OF A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. AND PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WAS MAINTAINED. STRONGER GUSTS WILL MIX IN MIDDAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
401 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR MIDWEEK OFFERING DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SLOWLY THRU ILN/S FA MONDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE. EXPECT PCPN TO END BY LATE EVENING AS NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENS UP AND PIVOTS EAST. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE. OFFERING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. EXPECT WEDNESDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60 SW. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
All but the highest mountain peaks will experience mostly rain up to this point.
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOWS IN THIS AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.
143 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. THEN BY MONDAY NIGHT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ELEVATED 900-700 MB FGEN RESPONSE TIED TO A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THEN WORKS SE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY/EARLY EVENING. THERMAL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION SO WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 50, BUT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM AS UPR RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND 2-3C WARMER ON WED.
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE SURFACE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE.
402 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPS ALMOST 20 DEGS WARMER THAN LAST NGT COURTESY OF SRLY FLOW. A WARM FNT XTNDG SEWD FM THE LOW INTO KY. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE MIDWEST.
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN OK, BUT EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AS IT MOVES INTO OK. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT FOR TUE. THIS TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD FROPA.
337 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 Cold front moving across the area will continue moving southeast today. There are some fairly stout south- southwest winds holding up the front blowing out of the lower Mississippi Valley right now, but eventually the sheer weight of the cold air will shove the front through southern portions of the CWFA by late morning according to most guidance. A strong Canadian high will build across the Midwest tonight bringing freezing temperatures to much of the northern 1/3 of the CWFA by morning. High amplitude blocky pattern will develop by late week with a trof off the east coast, a ridge over the Ohio Valley and Midwest, and another trof over the Rockies.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FAVORED WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
20 NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
326 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME PRETTY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE FCST AREA WL BE NEAR THE UPR RIDGE POSN WHEN THE BLOCKING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SO AFTER ONE MORE ROUND OF SCT/LGT PCPN THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR TUE NGT/EARLY WED. THOSE SHOULD BE REINFORCED DURING THE DAY AS UPR FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AS UPR TROF SHARPENS OVER THE REGION. THEN DECREASED THE CLDS AS LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CROSSES THE AREA.
ANY FOG WILL LIKELY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT S/WV TROUGH WILL APPROACH TUES NIGHT AND WEDS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE NOW CONSIDERABLY FASTER MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. THU/FRI LOOK NICE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U. RIDGES INTO TEXAS.
1154 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA. UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
A cold front will move south through KCNM and KHOB around 12/00Z, then through the rest of the sites by 12/06Z.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHUT OFF ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. AN UPPER LOW NEARING GILA BEND WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE WEST AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS LATER TONIGHT.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. EXPECT EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY AFTERNOON. AND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS UPPER RIDGING IS REINFORCED. UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN.
600 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN. IR IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS INDICATING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITHING THIS TROUGH. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AS OF 2 AM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WILL BE WATCHING THAT AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGH SIERRA. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR ONE MORE DAY. THE UPPER LOW. MODELS INSTABILITY INDICATING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FAVORED UNDER THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.
326 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to Taylorville line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of the day across the E/SE CWA. As another strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. The persistent upper troughing over eastern Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking develops across the CONUS by the end of the week.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT. WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
338 AM PDT MON APR 11 2016 ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR.
342 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
For tonight, a cold front will move south across West Central Texas during the evening and exit the area by 08Z.
440 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO DROP BELOW 36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY EVEN TO THE FREEZING MARK (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE). TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE PANHANDLES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.
151 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST VIRGA. AS SFC TEMPS NOW SAFELY ABV FREEZING. SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA.