Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The lower resolution models are not picking up on stratus or fog tonight. The higher resolution models are picking up on the low level moisture again for the overnight hours. Patchy fog and freezing fog was put into the forecast after 6z tonight until mid morning tomorrow.
A cold front is bringing a mix of mainly MVFR and VFR ceilings. A cold front is delivering gusty south winds early this morning. a long period northwest swell will build into early Wednesday then remain high and steep while high pressure briefly builds in with weakening winds.
247 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 A weak area of low pressure will track along the Maine coast this evening. A warm front will move north of the region tonight. Low pressure passes well north of the area Wednesday.
A high pressure ridge extending through the Ohio River Valley today will be in the forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
347 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 Progressive nearly zonal flow is in place across the lower 48. James A cooler air mass will move in behind the weak front that pushes through late Wednesday.
250 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will remain firmly in control through tomorrow. Temperatures hinge heavily on the stratus, but expect the mercury to fall back into the mid to upper teens in our normally colder valleys while ranging up to the mid 20s on the ridges. A weak and moisture starved cold front will approach the area Wednesday night. The only impact from this will be an increase in clouds and a slight increase in southwest winds which should keep temperatures elevated in the low to mid 30s for most locations.
700mb winds easing Wednesday as a cold front presses south into Colorado.
A cold front will enter northern Utah this evening, then move south into central Utah tonight into Wednesday. Outside of a net increase in cloud cover across the north through sunset, tranquil and somewhat warmer weather will be realized today. Continued progression of the aforementioned short wave will surge a shallow cold front south along the Wasatch Front thereafter, with the best chance of light snow occurring in the 00-06z timeframe along the border, and within the 04-08z timeframe in the SLC metro area where initial precip may be mixed w/rain showers at the lowest elevations.
A weak cold front will move through the region on Wednesday.
225 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will settle over central NC on Wednesday then drift offshore Wednesday night.
346 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will remain in place through the middle of the week.
250 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure controls regional conditions.
The low clouds over west KY into west TN finally dissipating, so we will be able to fine tune the sky cover forecast through 03z with higher confidence. A weak cold front will pass through Wednesday afternoon dry.
Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure center shifting east over southern Mississippi River Valley and allowing for weak south winds to develop.
Where the clouds have moved in, temps have been held down in the lower 30s. Some of the high resolution guidance has it expanding again tonight across portions of south and east central KY. If that does develop, we could see a few slick spots again as temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s.
A warmer day is expected on Wednesday with high temperatures again very near normal right around 60 degrees.
Flow aloft will generally remain zonal or weakly ridging. Considering how warm we have gotten today, have trended temperatures upward for Wednesday as well with much of the area getting into the lower 70s. 20 (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) The cold front will push south across west central Texas Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.
254 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will control the region's weather through Wednesday.
Temperatures tonight are only expected to drop into the lower to middle 20s under clear skies. Temperatures ahead of the front will range from from the middle 40s across central Missouri, to perhaps the lower 50s along the Arkansas border.
1144 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 The patchy freezing fog from earlier has dissipated. With temperatures in the teens, any patchy fog could result in some slick spots on roadways and bridges. Clear skies prevailed early this morning across southern Indiana and central Kentucky as a surface analysis revealed an elongated area of high pressure stretched from New England through the Ohio Valley and back toward Texas. For today, expect plenty of sunshine as the high pressure slips southward toward Alabama and Georgia.
1226 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Update A fast moving low pressure system will track through the Northern Great Lakes Region today. Yet another low pressure system heads our way on Wednesday with some light snow expected.
153 PM PST Tue Dec 20 2016 Dry offshore flow will weaken today with a warmer afternoon for most areas.
303 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure across the area tonight will remain in control of the weather through Wednesday night.
259 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure has shifted south of the Ohio River, resulting in southwesterly winds across the entire KILX CWA this afternoon. With partial cloudiness in place and continued southerly winds of 5-10mph, low temperatures will be warmer than they have been in recent nights, with readings remaining in the upper teens to around 20 degrees.
Though the inversion has eroded due to warmer southeast winds, it should redevelop tonight and, although perhaps not showing up quite as strongly, should be well saturated through a modest layer to lower ceilings to MVFR late this evening and then to IFR Wednesday morning. Mid level ridging over the Gulf shifts back to the west across the region today, which will help to bring a few breaks in the cloudiness by the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 50s along the beaches with lingering clouds.
We have a warmer start than yesterday. with morning temperatures already above freezing in most places.
202 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Aloft - A broad low was across Baffin Island Canada and a short wave trough over Ontario and the upper Great Lakes troughed south over much of the eastern U. Ridging stretched from Mexico to FL. Surface - A low was in southern Ontario while high pressure sprawled diagonally across the nation from the southern plains to Atlantic waters east of New England. The short wave trough slides east to the Gulf of Saint Lawrence with the associated troughiness exiting the eastern seaboard as the Gulf of Mexico ridge builds back over Mexico. the highs Wed will be near normal.
1259 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
Though the inversion has eroded due to warmer low level temperatures, it should redevelop tonight and, although perhaps not showing up quite as strongly, it should be well saturated through a modest layer and will lower ceilings to MVFR late this evening and then to IFR Wednesday morning. Mid level ridging over the Gulf shifts back to the west across the region today, which will help to bring a few breaks in the cloudiness by the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 50s along the beaches with lingering clouds.
As a result, have amended all grids to reflect continued patchy freezing fog through noon, and considerably cloudy conditions at least through early to mid afternoon. Fortunately, the freezing fog visibilities have improved considerably most areas, compared to what we saw earlier this morning--and conditions should continue to improve over the next several hours.
1138 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 Temperatures have already climbed into the lower to mid 40s over much of the region with only a few outliers in the upper 30s far north. /issued 533 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016/ High pressure to shift east allowing for light south to southeast winds to return to the region.
Light southeast flow in the low levels will allow the pesky low ceilings to retreat north over the Mississippi coast between 06z and 13z Wednesday.
1220 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will exit to the east today while a warm front moves north of the region. Weak low pressure will slide to our north on Wednesday.
A cold front will bring widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings from the coast to the Umpqua Valley this morning with periods of rain and terrain obscuration. Precipitation may begin as some sleet or freezing rain. A cold front is delivering gusty south winds early this morning. a long period northwest swell will build into early Wednesday then remain high and steep while high pressure briefly builds in with weakening winds.
The patchy freezing fog from earlier has dissipated. With temperatures in the teens, any patchy fog could result in some slick spots on roadways and bridges. Clear skies prevailed early this morning across southern Indiana and central Kentucky as a surface analysis revealed an elongated area of high pressure stretched from New England through the Ohio Valley and back toward Texas. For today, expect plenty of sunshine as the high pressure slips southward toward Alabama and Georgia.
1147 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 Some gentle ridging will continue to build into the region which will allow WWA to continue.
Given current road temperatures which are well below freezing there is a potential for quick icing of roads in that area if precipitation should happen to fall as rain or freezing rain instead of snow.
1226 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure controls regional conditions.
Moving into the middle of this week, flow across the area will become zonal as an upper ridge builds across the Bay of Campeche and weaker trough tracks across the upper Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures under the ridge will be fairly mild with the latest guidance indicating lows in 20s and 30s. The aforementioned wave will pull a cold front across the CWA early on Wednesday.
A strong cold front, supported by high winds aloft, is moving across the northern Rocky Mountains this afternoon. Mild conditions accompanied the front but much cooler air will spread over the area again tonight, along with areas of strong and gusty westerly winds, which will subside overnight.
For tonight, will be watching a fast moving low pressure system moving into ND with a trailing warm front. Thermal profiles also support mixed precipitation, even possibly in the form of freezing rain. The stronger winds may bring some blowing snow, but with the mild temps in place today and tomorrow, as well as some re-freezing tonight, snow condition may not be quite as easy to blow around.
A developing lee trough is anticipated to shift winds to the southwest and keep lows warmer tonight (in the 20s) across the region. Cloud cover increases from the northwest as the cold front associated with this system moves towards the region overnight. Behind the front, cooler air and gusty winds are expected. Forecast highs for Wednesday reach the low to mid 40s. A tight pressure gradient sits over the region, with the North Dakota low moving towards the Great Lakes and an area of high pressure spreading into the Rockies.
1245 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Cloudy and cool conditions will prevail today as moisture runs over a cold ridge of high pressure.
Associated H7 low tracks roughly along the international border so question will be how much snow potential will there be south of the low track.
Dry weather will continue today as weak high pressure builds over Arizona with cold overnight lows across much of the high country. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than the past couple of days as highs reach anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above average. Dry conditions with high clouds will occur for the next few days as a closed low spins off the waters of Baja California.
The rest of the forecast area probably won't be so lucky, with clouds unlikely to entirely burn off before sunset, thus keeping afternoon highs a bit cooler than expected. Light winds and the clearing skies early tonight will help temperatures dip back into the low 30's inland to low 40's near the coast, and with light northeasterly winds generally unchanging over that period, will once again aid in the formation of more fog and low cloud cover early Wednesday morning. More cloud cover begins to move in from the west late Wednesday, however, as yet another cold front approaches the area from the west.
1020 AM MST Tue Dec 20 2016 Northwest flow aloft continues this morning across the northern plains with weak ridging centered over the northern Rockies pushing eastward. A weak but fast moving cold front will cross the Dakotas tonight with W/NW winds increasing quickly behind the boundary. Strong trof moves through the Rockies and into the Plains for the weekend. ECMWF closes off upper low over central South Dakota while GFS brings through an open wave. While GFS has trended drier and warmer from earlier runs, several GEFS members support the idea of ECMWF but differ in timing/location of upper low cutting off. QPF from GFS is at the low end of GEFS members.
328 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 A frontal system off the coast will move farther offshore tonight as high pressure builds in.
At the surface, ridge of high pressure stretches from Southeast Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Aloft, a trough is over much of the country. Low temps tonight are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees warmer than the past morning.
the lee side trof is deepening off the Northern Rockies and winds are picking up behind the trof. The forecast concerns will be focused on the tonight period with wind speeds as the trof moves through and precip type. The trough has moved off to the east and a medium- wave ridge forms over the Canadian Rockies this morning, producing northwest flow aloft over Northeast Montana. The ridge will drift east over Montana today bringing fairly mild conditions again - with highs 5F to 10F above normal. The low should be through the area by Wednesday afternoon.
Given the weak low level pressure gradient and limited high clouds, freezing fog will again be possible east of the MS River late tonight. Will carry a mention of locally dense freezing fog in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Advisories for freezing fog will be issued, if needed, by the evening and overnight shifts.
This should lead to relatively mild overnight lows once again, generally in the lower 20s. On the one hand we have an extra day of airmass modification ahead of the approaching boundary, warmer morning start temperatures, and less snow cover over much of the area after melting today.
257 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Low pressure over Ontario will move east into Quebec tonight as high pressure begins to build over the lower Ohio valley.
927 AM PST Tue Dec 20 2016 Dry offshore flow will weaken today with a warmer afternoon for most areas.
Strong trof moves through the Rockies and into the Plains for the weekend.
Therefore, the forecast for the rest of the afternoon is based more toward the high-res guidance, keeping the clouds in for much of Central Alabama through much of the afternoon.
Toward the end of the TAF period around 15Z Wednesday at KDHT/KGUY and around 16Z for KAMA, a cold front will move south through the TAF sites. /Issued 542 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016/ For the 12Z TAFs, a very weak cold front will move across the TAF sites this morning with north winds in its wake. These north winds will be short lived as southwest winds are expected to resume after sunset this evening as a sfc trof of low pressure develops along the ern slopes of the srn Rockies.
With high pressure continuing to build into the area and a more northerly component to the wind bringing drier air to the surface, anticipate conditions to improve with lifting ceilings and better visibilities from north to south through the remainder of the afternoon. May take a bit to erode this low level moisture given the light flow. A beautiful Wednesday in store with high pressure in place and temperatures able to rebound into the mid 50s to around 60 area wide. With high pressure moving further east, return flow will develop late Wednesday allowing temperatures to be a bit more mild Wednesday night.
325 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 Weak high pressure will allow decoupling of the atmosphere and therefore another relatively cold night with lows ranging from the middle teens across the north to the lower 20s in the south. A weak cold front will move across the area on Wed/Wed night, but no precipitation is expected. A cutoff low west of Baja California will eject northeastward into the Four Corners region on Thu night in response to an approaching upstream trough. Meanwhile, a longwave trough will approach the west coast and eventually develop into a large low pressure system somewhere across the central CONUS. Models have come into much better agreement compared to 48hrs ago, and it now appears that the maturing low pressure system will be located somewhere between Oklahoma City, OK and Williston, ND.
322 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure through Wednesday.
/issued 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016/ Temperatures have already climbed into the lower to mid 40s over much of the region with only a few outliers in the upper 30s far north.
217 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure through Wednesday.
1239 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure through Wednesday.
Upper level analysis places west-northwesterly flow over the region with fast moving trough now pushing over the Northern Rockies. The tricky part in the forecast will be some warmer air aloft pushing through ahead of the main increase in winds.
1121 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 Current water vapor showing a vigorous mid-level trough moving through Manitoba and the Dakotas with our area under veil of mid/high cloud in warm air advection/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave. With our area staying in the warm sector and ample sunshine, look for highs in the lower to middle 30s. Attention then turns to another low pressure system moving through Canada with a warm front passing through our area. Will have to keep an eye on the slight possibility of some freezing drizzle on the backside of the snow band this afternoon/evening up across that area with loss of cloud ice.
323 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 As of 230 PM, a persistent cloud line with a corresponding broken line of showers is moving westward across the island chain and approaching the Lower Keys. Dewpoints remain in the low 70s and temperatures are in the low 80s with breezy northeasterly winds.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The first two periods will be rather benign as high pressure spreads over the area with air mass modification, and with broad mid level ridging aloft.
High pressure in control at the surface. Thus notably warmer temperatures expected Wednesday with sunshine and southerly flow.
A lack of moisture in the lower/mid levels will cap any precip chances through late Wednesday afternoon even as an attendant cold front pushes through western Kansas early in the day. A warming trend with low temperatures will continue tonight as a developing lee side trough of low pressure quickly returns light southwesterlies to western Kansas through much of the night. Although the cold front will push through all of western Kansas by early Wednesday afternoon, highs will still reach the 40s(F) with near 50F possible in south central Kansas ahead of the frontal boundary.
Winds will weaken this evening as low pressure moves off to the northeast. Surface temperatures are right around freezing.
A big concern is the fact the temperatures are forecast to fall to freezing or below for several hours across the northern two-thirds of north central Alabama. A weak cold front will approach the area late Wednesday night.
This cutoff low is responsible for the cirrus over the region, as subtropical moisture continues to be routed northward on the east side of the low before drifting east in quasi-zonal flow aloft. Tonight, temperatures will drop into the lower 30s to middle 40s, which would make tonight's lows warmer than most of the afternoon high temperatures only 48 hours ago. A very warm day is expected on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, as westerly downslope flow increases and compressional warming will allow temperatures to climb to the upper 60s and 70s areawide. A change is coming Wednesday night, as the next cold front pushes south into the area.
1028 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Cold front is currently exiting the eastern zones. Areas that see more extensive shower activity may be a bit cooler than forecast but overall forecast looks pretty good, so no changes this morning. A cold front is still expected to cross the area this morning. The best chances for rain, and snow in the higher elevations, will be from Sheridan to Ekalaka where the right rear quad of the jet will be producing some decent ascent. This will result in another warmer and drier day across the area.
729 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure building in from the north today will bring gradually lessening chances for precipitation, pushing a frontal boundary south of the area with some afternoon sunshine expected, mainly across central and northern areas. Unsettled and warmer weather returns for the end of the weekend as developing low pressure over the central U.
Some of the guidance like the NAM and ARW supports this notion with lingering cloud cover and cooler highs. there could be some precip though lingering north of the warm front. Therefore, have the highest pops across the southeastern zones. Wherever the warm front sets up will determine where the highest highs for Sunday will be located.
1027 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure over the western Atlantic will be in control today. A back door cold front will drop southwestward into the area later tonight and Sunday.
A slow moving stacked low pressure system currently over eastern OK will move northeast, reaching the Chicago area by Sunday evening. A warm, moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the advancing upper trough associated with the system are responsible for a line of showers and thunderstorms currently extending from southern IL south to the Gulf Coast. With decent flow aloft and freezing levels only around 8K ft on Sunday, organized convection could bring strong winds and hail. A weak low will be stacked with it and trailing cold front attempting to progress through the area.
It's still quite early in the diurnal cycle to determine what temperature trends will be for today, but yesterday the high-resolution models did a much better job handling the well above normal temps, and so have decided to tweak the temperatures in that direction. While temperatures this morning started much warmer than they did yesterday, more cloud cover is expected today as well. Morning hourly trends were tweaked toward the much warmer NAM and high res models in conjunction with current observations. With the Upper Ohio firmly entrenched under the ridge/warm sector, warm high-temperatures can again be expected with readings about 20 degrees above the averages forecast, with only minor moderation projected along the I 80 counties as the aforementioned front sags toward/across that area.
An upper trough will cross the Great Basin today. High pressure aloft will return briefly on Sunday, followed by another storm system for early in the upcoming week. A cool upper trof and its associated cold front are making their way into UT this morning. A vort max in the base of the trof over srn NV will lift north thru UT today enhancing precip along and west of the front. The upstream ridge moves into the Great Basin tonight and across our CWA on Sun. The ridge shifts east Sun night as the next trof moves inland with precip chances increasing across the north overnight becoming widespread on Mon.