Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The position of the high will allow weather disturbances to move through the Great Basin, sending fronts south through the region and leading to periods of gusty northerly winds. Mid and high clouds associated with the low pressure system that passed by to our west yesterday, are primarily covering the far southern CWA generally south of I-40. The last day of the year is expected to be a little warmer than yesterday but will still top out around 5 degrees below normal. Winds will be much lighter in the Colorado River Valley on New Years Day with gusty northwest winds associated with a cold front area expected in the northern portions of Inyo County and across southcentral Nevada Wednesday afternoon.
However, warmer temperatures into the mid 40s are possible across the eastern half of the Black Hills/foothills due to downsloping westerly winds.
Closed low now off the coast of Baja as ridging from the eastern Pacific noses into NorCal.
Tonight is expected to be a few degrees cooler, as lighter winds will promote slightly stronger radiational cooling.
Lighter winds today will alleviate the overall fire danger somewhat, though a light downslope wind and nearly full sun will result in warmer temperatures compared to past couple of days. Fire danger will ramp back up Wednesday as south winds increase significantly ahead of an approaching upper low, currently located off Baja coast.
510 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Daytime highs will be warmer today and even warmer on Wednesday with above normal temperatures.
400 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Last early morning sfc analysis of 2019 shows high pressure was centered over the Rockies and ridging sewd over the srn Plains and into the forecast area. this will help keep temps from bottoming out despite dewpoints in the lower/mid 30s and calm winds.
600 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Gusty winds and a period of accumulating snow will create difficult travel this morning as an upper level trough moves through.
As of early this morning, the low pressure system responsible for the active weather over the last few days was positioned over the Great Lakes, continuing a slow trek to the east. 500H height rises over the local area today will aid in shunting stratus associated with the low to the east as well, leading to clearing skies as the day progresses. Southwest flow will be enhanced tomorrow as a longwave trough digs toward the Baja of California.
Today Through Wednesday Night Strong low pressure system was centered ovr the upper Great Lakes region early this mrng, with the FA still seeing some effects of assocd cyclonic flow. Meanwhile, a persistent W wind has kept early mrng readings in the mid and upper 30s acrs the higher terrain, with sub-freezing temps noted in the sheltered areas.
Have trended toward the cooler guidance tonight. With ample insolation expected, have trended toward the warmer guidance. With southerly to southwest flow continuing Wed night, as well as cloud cover spreading north as the next system approaches, have trended warmer for Wed night. Will need to watch for freezing overnight as temps drop into the 20s. While trends have been cooler, going forecast may be too warm thru Sat. The operational ECMWF has an interesting solution for this entire system with a much stronger clipper which then develops into a cut off upper low.
Adjustments made to tweak temps mainly in MN through the evening and bumped lows towards the lower end of guidance. Will fine tune those periods as newer data comes in, as confidence hasn't changed from day shift (low confidnce on freezing precip vs snow). Currently have the least amount of clouds along and east of the Red River Valley, along with the lowest wind speeds. Therefore have kept the coolest lows in that area, which are a little cooler than most guidance numbers. Actually have highs on Wednesday pretty mild, in the low 30s. Another weak cold front drops southward Wednesday night, which should help end any mixed precipitation threat. Persistent ridging over the western half of the CONUS will flatten and spread eastward, giving us additional chances for above average temperatures.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 50s.
A closed low that is anchored across the Baja Peninsula will start to phase with a northern stream trough tonight. The lack of cloud cover tonight and light winds will allow temps to fall into the lower 30s and provide good conditions for any New Years celebrations. Conditions will remain dry with warmer daytime highs reaching the lower 50s.
The high pressure will continue to move east tonight, and be centered over southern Alabama by Wednesday morning.
Surface ridging moving east early tonight should allow temperatures to drop off quickly. May see some flurries/patchy freezing drizzle over far northern CWA into Wednesday afternoon, but moisture will be lacking and overall forcing is weak.
Have trended toward the cooler guidance tonight. With ample insolation expected, have trended toward the warmer guidance. With southerly to southwest flow continuing Wed night, as well as cloud cover spreading north as the next system approaches, have trended warmer for Wed night.
Nudged toward the HREF as it kept highs a little cooler than the consensus blends but still in the 30s.
354 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 The large scale pattern across the lower 48 will feature a long wave trough across the center part.
236 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 A closed low that is anchored across the Baja Peninsula will start to phase with a northern stream trough tonight. The lack of cloud cover tonight and light winds will allow temps to fall into the lower 30s and provide good conditions for any New Years celebrations. Conditions will remain dry with warmer daytime highs reaching the lower 50s.
A stratus/stratocumulus deck associated with a vertically stacked low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will gradually clear to the northeast this morning, leaving clear skies for the remainder of the day for all but the central Missouri portion of our area. High temperatures will be near seasonal norms in the low to mid 40s. Tuesday night lows in the mid to upper 20s and wind chills in the low 20s will provide a chilly welcome to the new decade for those of us who stay up late enough to celebrate the occasion. Mother Nature quickly changes her mind by Wednesday afternoon as a high pressure center sliding over the Gulf Coast will bring breezy southerly winds back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and warmer highs in the 50s tag along.
Afternoon highs should be slightly cooler than yesterday, mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s with lows tonight near freezing area wide. Aloft the Mid-South will continue to have zonal flow until late on New Year's Day when a high amplitude trough moves out of the Rockies and into the plains.
Currently have the least amount of clouds along and east of the Red River Valley, along with the lowest wind speeds. Therefore have kept the coolest lows in that area, which are a little cooler than most guidance numbers. Actually have highs on Wednesday pretty mild, in the low 30s. Another weak cold front drops southward Wednesday night, which should help end any mixed precipitation threat. Persistent ridging over the western half of the CONUS will flatten and spread eastward, giving us additional chances for above average temperatures.
Look for VFR wx the next 24+ hours as high pressure builds into Middle Tennessee from the SW, with winds diminishing after 00Z.
242 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 The cold front that pushed through west central Florida yesterday is now almost completely through the state as it is situated over Key West and Miami currently. Behind the front, as we already know, is much cooler and drier air. Zonal upper level flow and high pressure at the surface will bring quiet weather for the rest of the work week.
1104 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Dry high pressure building into the forecast area from the west will bring breezy conditions today. The high will be in the region with less wind on Wednesday.
417 PM MST Tue Dec 31 2019 Current surface analysis shows warm front to the north-northwest of the area, with high pressure over the central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows northwest flow over the region, with ridging along the west coast. Some high clouds are spilling over the ridge and across the region. A light accumulation is possible across the higher elevations.
Water vapor imagery and height fields show a positively-tilted trough sitting over Baja California while broad ridging extends back toward northern/central California. With enhanced mid to upper level moisture sweeping around the offshore ridge, areas of high clouds continue to stream southward across the region. A northerly component to the wind has kept the northern Sacramento Valley on the warmer side, generally in the mid to upper 60s. Once the sun goes down, temperatures will quickly cool down with Valley and Delta nighttime readings into the low to mid 40s.
Slightly stronger winds just off the surface will lead to elevation dependent breezier conditions, focused mainly through the Buffalo Ridge area.
Some of those will be lifting northward across our southern Zones as a deep upper level low continues sliding southeast along the Baja south of California, although any impact from this will be minimal outside of shading the sun at times today. As this low spirals away, the gates will open for strengthening northwest flow with high clouds spreading over the remainder of the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
133 PM PST Tue Dec 31 2019 A low pressure system to our south will continue to bring partly cloudy skies and gusty easterly winds this afternoon.
1222 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Snow showers mixing with rain at times are expected today with a crossing trough.
The 20Z MSAS surface analysis showed a broad area of low pressure over extreme southeast Ontario. A modest ridge of high pressure stretched from the central Plains north-northeast into southern Canada. The ridge of high pressure is expected to move into the western Great Lakes region tonight, bringing mostly clear skies, a diminishing west wind and a cold night to the forecast area.
145 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 A weak area of high pressure will slide across the area overnight and off to the southeast Wednesday. With the area of high pressure off to the southeast Wednesday, the winds will swing around to the south and start to push some warmer air back into the area.
1249 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Snow showers mixing with rain at times are expected today with a crossing trough.
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Deep low pressure system was tracking through eastern Upper Michigan early this morning with radar showing snow over our area on a rapid diminishing trend. Plenty of cloud and brisk northwest winds behind the departing low this morning, but skies/winds are expected to gradually clear out/subside by this afternoon as high pressure builds in. Looks like a quiet night weather-wise for New Year's Eve as high pressure drifts overhead. The first day of 2020/Wednesday looks to be relatively mild as warm air advection takes place ahead of low pressure tracking across the Canadian/US border. The area will see a small chance for some light rain or a rain/snow mix as a cold front slides through.
Winds will turn to the southwest as the low level jet pushes into southern WI.
249 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Snow showers will continue today with a crossing trough.
213 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Low clouds continue to wrap around upper level low over the Great Lakes. As the system lifts out to the northeast, the low clouds should as well. High pressure moving in from the west will bring dry and sunny conditions for New Year's Day.
A developing coastal trough along the southern Texas coast will lead to an increase in moisture, rain chances, and lowering CIGs. Due to the coastal trough positioning, will expect more E-NE-ly winds across eastern sites of ALI-CRP-VCT, with more N-ly winds across western sites of COT-LRD.
/issued 254 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ The last full forecast package of 2019 concerns itself with the evolution of a progressive closed low now over the southern half of Baja California Norte. This low is expected to slowly translate east over northern Sonora tonight and early New Years Day before phasing with a short wave trough responsible in part for the atmospheric river event over the Pacific northwest.
254 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 The last full forecast package of 2019 concerns itself with the evolution of a progressive closed low now over the southern half of Baja California Norte. This low is expected to slowly translate east over northern Sonora tonight and early New Years Day before phasing with a short wave trough responsible in part for the atmospheric river event over the Pacific northwest.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 53 39 52 47 / 0 0 10 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 50 36 50 46 / 0 0 0 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 32 49 36 49 45 / 0 0 0 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 47 30 50 42 / 10 0 0 80 90.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 32 53 39 52 / 0 0 0 10 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 33 50 36 50 / 0 0 0 0 90 Oak Ridge, TN 46 32 49 36 49 / 0 0 0 0 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 29 47 30 50 / 10 10 0 0 80.
618 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 High pressure remains again on Wednesday, although with less wind to deal with.
254 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level low across Baja California will drift south through Wednesday afternoon.
Dry and seasonably weather is expected through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific.
450 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Low clouds continue to wrap around upper level low over the Great Lakes. As the system lifts out to the northeast, the low clouds should as well. High pressure moving in from the west will bring dry and sunny conditions for New Year's Day.
This low is expected to kick out well south of the area as northern stream jet streak moves southeast from Pacific Northwest. Thus, upper troughing will become more evident across the Rocky Mountains through tomorrow night. At the surface, enhanced lee troughing will begin overnight tonight in response to uptick in cross barrier component aloft.
107 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 High pressure remains again on Wednesday, although with less wind to deal with.
Clear skies, relaxing winds and temperatures in the upper 30s (on their way towards freezing by morning) can be expected when the clock strikes midnight.
511 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Snow showers will continue today with a crossing trough.
Road and near surface air temperatures have risen above freezing and should continue to slowly rise through the day. 18Z TAFS: The well advertised warm front is moving through the eastern portions of the forecast area this morning. This warm front tapped into a deep Pacific moisture and resulted in variable precipitation across the region. The warm front has yet to completely pass KGEG and will likely get hung up near the WA/ID border until this evening.
A threat of freezing rain is still on track for lower valleys of Idaho and Baker county. Flurries possible in the lower valleys this morning. Possible pockets of freezing rain overnight.
235 PM MST Tue Dec 31 2019 Current surface analysis shows warm front to the north-northwest of the area, with high pressure over the central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows northwest flow over the region, with ridging along the west coast. Some high clouds are spilling over the ridge and across the region. A light accumulation is possible across the higher elevations.
623 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Dry high pressure leading to VFR clear conditions through the period. The cold front that pushed through west central Florida yesterday is now almost completely through the state as it is situated over Key West and Miami currently. Behind the front, as we already know, is much cooler and drier air. Zonal upper level flow and high pressure at the surface will bring quiet weather for the rest of the work week.
1114 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Daytime highs will be warmer today and even warmer on Wednesday with above normal temperatures.
554 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 A weak area of high pressure will slide across the area overnight and off to the southeast Wednesday. With the area of high pressure off to the southeast Wednesday, the winds will swing around to the south and start to push some warmer air back into the area.
This will keep temperatures up overnight tonight and went near the higher end of guidance, which keeps lows in the upper 30s/low 40s.
107 AM EDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Unseasonably cold high pressure approaching the region will maintain brisk north breezes today, with freezing temperatures becoming even more widespread into early Saturday. A deep H5 trough persists along the Eastern U. The primary forecast challenge is the extent of freezing conditions tonight. Quiet short term period with high pressure in place.
Highs today look to reach into the low to mid 70s with lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s across west central Kansas with low 40s across south central Kansas.
259 AM EDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through the weekend under high pressure. The high should then maintain mostly sunny skies today, though high temperatures are still expected to be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonable levels with cold air aloft in place.
Clear, calm, and cold tonight under high pressure. High pressure will nudge in from the west today, along with much drier air taking hold. In addition, winds will continue to be gusty, particularly during afternoon hours, before decreasing this evening as the center of the high moves over the area, allowing for a calm, clear night.
As a weak trough guides those clouds east, a break in the clouds will be brief as another round of high clouds will move into the area tonight due to persistent upper level zonal flow encouraging warm, dry downsloping, high clouds, and another lee trough to develop. As the ridge of warm temperatures and high pressure moves into our region from the west beginning today, fire weather concerns are elevated today. This weather pattern of the broad warm ridge of high pressure to our south will persist through this weekend.
Weak high pressure aloft will be over the area on Friday for dry weather.
324 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021 High pressure at the surface centered near Chicago this morning. Upper troughs over New England and off the Pacific coast near San Diego, and an upper ridge just moving east of the Rockies.
One more cool night is in store tonight with temperatures closer to freezing.
337 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance Turning considerably warmer the next couple days. A broad, low amplitude ridge will expand east the next couple days, eventually covering the entire CONUS during the weekend. A large anticyclone will continue to shift east of the area today and tonight, allowing a weak frontal boundary to drop into the region on Saturday.
Highs on Friday will be 60 to 65, then another cool night follows for Friday night when lows range from the lower 30s well inland to around 40 at the coast. With the light southerly flow developing in the afternoon, this will aid in highs on Saturday trending a bit warmer to range from the mid 60s to around 70.
Continuing cloud coverage and northwesterly flow will make for a warmer night than last, with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Other adjustments were to sky cover with opaque high clouds spreading across the region ahead of warm front. A surface trof now digging into the western Dakotas will continue to intensify the surface pressure gradient across eastern ND and into western MN through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile a building H5 ridge aloft will provide overall airmass warming and generally fair skies. Cluster ensembles remain right on in favoring area temps at near or above freezing min temps and milder aftn readings, so p-type of rain would be optimized as short wave traverses the region while main dynamics remain to our north over the central Canadian prairies.
Saturday, upper level ridging builds in across the forecast area bringing another round of sunny skies. Upper level ridging will reach its full potential this weekend, settling in overhead the forecast area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be under the influence of a 500 mb ridge of high pressure that will become less amplified as closed mid-level low pressure moves into north Texas.
1043 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Upper level ridging in command across the region with nothing other than a few cirrus clouds drifting overhead this afternoon. Much of the same expected for Friday although temperatures will likely be 10-15 degrees warmer than today's values. Fairly stagnant pattern through the weekend with continued ridging overhead and thus dry conditions. Given trends/verification of model guidance vs observations, have relied on a more mixed scenario and thus dewpoints in the lower half of guidance and winds in the upper half of guidance.
Southerly low level flow will increase today as an upper ridge continues to build into the midwest. Dewpoints will be in the low 20s Friday morning, reaching the low 30s in the afternoon. Deeper mixing will bring warmer temperatures under mostly clear skies. Given the potential for warmer, drier air to mix in today,we decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for the entire CWA, in coordination with our neighbors.
A new record low should be set at TRI, and TYS will come within 2 degrees of the record as we fall into the low/upper 20's areawide. High pressure continues to build in with VFR conditions through the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 32 62 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 27 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 29 60 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 23 58 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
High pressure will move across the area producing sunny skies and lighter winds. Increase in southwest flow and warmer air will push highs mostly to the mid 50s to around 60.
110 AM EDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Light snow across portions of the region will taper off this evening as coastal low pressure pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes. Other than a few light snow showers lingering across Montpelier and Newport, drier conditions have begun to win out with dewpoints hovering in the lower teens.
1118 PM MDT Thu Apr 1 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE Mid to high level clouds will continue moving over NM in advance of a weakening upper low approaching from the west. While convection diminishes aft 03/02Z, the upper low will move slowly over NM, and return flow may bring sufficient low level moisture up the Pecos Valley and into sern NM for MVFR cigs and isold -RA to develop along and south of a line from KROW to KCVN. The ridge of high pressure over NM now will shift east, allowing a low nearing northern Baja, CA to move inland.
With longwave troughing across the Eastern CONUS, temperatures remain below normal. However, ridging does begin to build in from the west this afternoon with increasing temperatures across our southern and southwestern counties. Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-02 25(1881) 24(1881) 27(2001) 26(1985) 04-03 25(1992) 25(1992) 22(1992) 21(1992) JB.
A mid to upper level trough moving east over Arizona today maintains a stream of mid to high level cloudiness keeping high temperatures below normal. The mid to upper level trough moves into southwestern Texas on Saturday.
This air mass, with precipitable waters of a measly tenth of an inch, will provide a clear sky as high pressure of 1036 mb moves directly overhead. As the high pressure scoots eastward, winds of south-southwesterly will set up shop on Friday. The wind direction will steer in warmer air with highs favored to top 50 degrees.
A weak upper level ridge will move across south Texas today.