Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the storms continue into the evening and the lower level jet intensity increases, there may be an increase in precipitation within the MCS and additional flooding concerns. The placement of the lower level jet has varied between models and model runs, with some models keeping the LLJ west of the impacted area and having little influence tonight, and other (namely the NAM) putting the LLJ through central Oklahoma.
Attention will be toward expanding storm complex across the High Plains spreading E-SE overnight.
1115 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level analysis shows closed upper low centered in western Manitoba, slowly moving eastward. Weak q-vector convergence and lingering moisture on the southern periphery of the Canadian upper low continue to support isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning. Weak cold air advection will result in slightly cooler temperatures Monday with upper 60s to mid 70s expected for highs.
Recent thunderstorm initiation over northeast NE is potentially occurring along an outflow boundary and to the southeast of a cold front amidst estimated MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg and a weakening cap.
The highlights of the short term are the continued warming trend and possible rain Monday afternoon. For Monday,the thermal ridge, at 850mb, will expand even more into our counties, from the west. Turning Cooler and Possible Rain.
A ridge will move in across the region during the next few days with hot and dry conditions prevailing through midweek.
The upper level trof responsible for the enhanced convection today will be nearly overhead tomorrow morning which will likely result in convective initiation earlier than would be typical without the upper level support. to the east high pressure is and will ridge across the northern gulf as a result we are looking at gulf moisture streaming into the region and a persistent wx pattern.
Otherwise, expecting mostly dry conditions overnight as temperatures settle in the low to mid 70s. (modified previous discussion) Scattered lightning storms will develop on both seabreezes in the early to mid afternoon, but the higher coverage will be inland where more boundary interactions will occur from mid afternoon into the evening.
524 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 With the upper low over Manitoba, active cyclonic flow persists over the northern plains. An upper ridge will build over the western states for Tues/Wed, resulting in warmer and drier weather.
Most of this convection will be isolated to the higher elevations of the mountain and foothills near the border with some isolated storms pushing ESE into the evening hours. ACARS soundings showing a slight stable layer over Denver that is a byproduct of the persistent wave cloud that has kept temperatures cooler and conditions more stable further south. A surface cold push later this evening will bring a cooler and more stable airmass that will help to dissipate storm activity across the plains. There is better instability across the higher terrain so will maintain a slight chance of storms over the mountains by the afternoon hours on Monday.
846 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Warm and dry conditions will continue through mid-week as a ridge builds over the region, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.
An upper trough will remain in place over the northern plains through the short term. Clouds and rain under the upper trough will moderate temps, but any sunshine will act quickly to bump them up. Starting out the period, the region finds itself in northwestern flow with a trough in place over Ontario down through the Great Lakes region. To the west, ridging expands through Montana and into northern Saskatchewan.
The highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms is currently across Stark and Hettinger Counties, moving southeast. Expect similar temperatures as today, with northwest flow aloft as the upper low moves off slightly to our northeast and becomes centered over western Ontario.
Expect this will continue overnight into Monday as strong upper ridge builds into the Pacific northwest.
to the east high pressure is and will ridge across the northern gulf as a result we are looking at gulf moisture streaming into the region and a persistent wx pattern.
957 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore on Monday with isolated convection expected.
Scattered thunderstorms are erupting across southern Minnesota this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Monday's highs will be cooler in the mid 70s.
957 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through midweek, while a weak trough persists inland.
Strong high pressure aloft will provide hotter than normal daytime temperatures this week.
1030 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Weak ridging aloft will continue to build over the area through Monday.
On Monday a mid/upper level trough in the central U.
Once the convection moves out of the area this evening there may be some lingering showers as the cold front continues to slide through the area during the evening hours. Monday and Monday evening we should have some diurnally driven afternoon showers as the cooler and drier airmass moves into the area, and the low level instability will be enough for showers but not quite enough for storms.
High pressure will be over Nevada for the next couple of days bringing summertime temperatures.
A fractured western Atlantic ridge axis stretches west across Florida. The KKEY 00Z RAOB sampled nearly 2" of PW, although the lowest levels are drier than normal with very little flow.
The forecast is on track this afternoon as high pressure builds just to the east of us. The upper level ridge will continue to build over northern California on Monday, which will lead to above normal temperatures for the week. Marine influenced areas may experience slightly cooler overnight lows, but will remain hot during the day.
729 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through midweek, while a weak trough persists inland.
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are erupting across southern Minnesota this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Monday's highs will be cooler in the mid 70s.
824 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Weak ridging aloft will continue to build over the area through Monday.
445 PM MST Sun Jun 21 2020 Updated Aviation High pressure will slowly build over the region early this week resulting in a gradual warming trend.
An area of high pressure will move through western Kansas this morning into the afternoon which will switch the lower level winds to the north to northeast through the day. Tonight and through the overnight storms will continue to dive southward into Oklahoma and Texas with a high pressure center moving into central Nebraska so we should have clearing skies from north to south. Lows will fall back into the lower 60s.
212 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected.
Whereas the 12Z and 00Z global models have been underdoing the QPF thus far, a few of the latest CAMs including the HRRR, ARW, and RAP suggest that widespread 2-5+ inch QPF are likely across portions of SW and SCntrl AR, although each vary in the exact location of the higher totals. The highest confidence though for seeing the potential for flash flooding is only across a small area from Howard to Hempstead and Nevada Counties, as well as Union County, but these areas have remained drier than normal over the last month and should be able to take most of these rains and thus, a Flash Flood Watch will not be issued with the forecast update.
LCLs analyzed above the freezing level per RAP/HRRR forecast soundings suggest increased potential for strong downdraft winds. The Manitoba upper low will move northeast into Ontario Province, broaden and meander through mid-week. Meanwhile, a upper ridge axis along the Pacific coast will shift east into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Northwest flow aloft will prevail between a trough to the east and ridge to the west.
Tonight, PW values rise to nearly 2 inches, while synoptic forcing increases in association with the main northern stream midlevel trough axis.
Overall heavy rainfall threat tonight is now uncertain given robust convection is not as likely along cold front.
1015 PM MST Sun Jun 21 2020 Updated Aviation High pressure will continue to build over the region early this week resulting in a steady warming trend.
344 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected.
Slightly warmer in the south. The best chances for rain and thunderstorms are ahead of the cold front that passed through eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota yesterday. Heading into Monday we will get another chance for some rain showers as a couple of vort maxes along the western side of an upper low currently over the Canadian Prairies moves across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. With another cooler day tomorrow the instability will again be limited so thunderstorms will be unlikely, although an isolated non-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
High pressure over the region will continue to bring above normal temperatures and dry conditions with some afternoon breezes each day through the week.
128 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through midweek, while a weak trough persists inland.
1051 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 With the upper low over Manitoba, active cyclonic flow persists over the northern plains. An upper ridge will build over the western states for Tues/Wed, resulting in warmer and drier weather.
329 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Mid level ridging over the Caribbean Sea will gradually lift north into southern Florida through the week as a broad mid level trough slowly rotates from the northern Great Plains through New England. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis will hold across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula for the first half of the week before lifting north across northern Florida late in the week and into the weekend. This pattern will favor another day of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior and across southwest Florida.
All this to say, the severe weather threat today appears on the low side, although non-zero.
It would appear from water vapor satellite imagery that a couple of areas of low pressure are currently moving over South Dakota, maintaining just enough mid- level lift/forcing to produce a few showers across the state early this morning. There is also a subtle inverted surface trof/weak cool frontal boundary splayed out across the region, as well.
The central Gulf coast area will be under the influence of a weak upper level trough midweek. The trough will weaken towards the end of the week and this will greatly reduce the amount of showers and thunderstorms as a result.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 90s again this afternoon, falling into the low 70s tonight.
The first is the convection propagating east-north east along what appears to be a weak warm front noticeable by the increase in surface dewpoints to the southwest of it. Models are in good agreement developing more showers and storms along the trough axis as a surface reflection begins to appear around dawn. Will decrease PoPs for a period overnight and then increase from the west as the trough approaches. The large scale ascension associated with this feature will weaken as it works to eject the ridge that was over a portion of the region on Sunday. With the trough moving through, the area will see plenty of cloud cover which will work to lower convective strength. The atmosphere ahead of the trough will be unstable, but shear will be relatively weak.
326 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Slow moving upper level low over western Ontario this morning continues to be our most influential weather feature today as a trough axis south of the low swings by, embedded in the mean northwesterly flow aloft. This is driving a cold front through the CWFA early this morning assisted by outflow from convection over western OK and the TX panhandle. Prefer the cooler MOS numbers over the blends with much cooler temps in store for today than we saw on Sunday. Thanks to the cooler temperatures, we should see min RH values remain clear of critical thresholds with lowest RH values near the TX/NM state line.
335 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Broad upper troughing over the Central Plains this morning with multiple vorticity maxes observed traversing the region. Elevated showers associated with a weak upper perturbation in central NE are expected to develop and shift southeast with a weak cold front today. Based on satellite trends upstream and forecast soundings however, believe cloud cover holds temps back a few degrees with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. A dry and cooler airmass arrives this evening behind the front, alleviating temps down into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Focus then shifts to late this morning and into the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front begins to push through the area. Look for afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and lows tonight from the low 60s in central Missouri, to the middle and even upper 60s along the Arkansas border.
Further upstream, northwest flow between a trough off the Pacific NW coast and the slowly departing upper low over southern Ontario.
The large scale ascension associated with this feature will weaken as it works to eject the ridge that was over a portion of the region on Sunday. With the trough moving through, the area will see plenty of cloud cover which will work to lower convective strength. The atmosphere ahead of the trough will be unstable, but shear will be relatively weak.
The boundary/cold front will exit the area by early this evening, taking any remaining precip.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across portions of northern Georgia by the early afternoon where likely pops have been included through the early evening.
As a cold front slides through the region this evening, showers and storms will swing through the area this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures along the Keys island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, and winds on land are from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis has changed little from 24 hours ago, with weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Bahamas and Florida peninsula into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows the weak trough which has lingered over the eastern Gulf for the past several days finally shifting eastward, with the poorly defined trough axis now very close to the Keys. 500 mb heights did rise slightly, indicating that the mid level ridge is beginning to build into the Keys from the southeast.
945 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2020 High pressure will be building over California this week, shrinking the marine layer, and bringing fair and much warmer weather inland. Previous Discussion (issued at 155 PM PDT): Expansive upper level high pressure is building over the state and will continue to do so through mid week.
339 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Early this morning, a very slow-moving cold front was placed along the North Dakota / South Dakota border, extending northwest into eastern Montana. Surface pressure rises were ongoing, with a high pressure centered in southern Saskatchewan. Aloft, flow was northwesterly, with a closed low to our northeast placed over western Ontario. Should be relatively quiet today, with temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs in the upper 60s north central to the mid 70s south.
Otherwise, south winds will continue into the early morning hours at our TAF sites with the higher speeds and gusts at KABI and KSJT. A cold frontal passage and accompanying wind shift could affect the KABI terminal in the evening or early nighttime hours. /issued 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) The highlights of the short term are the continued warming trend and possible rain Monday afternoon. For Monday,the thermal ridge, at 850mb, will expand even more into our counties, from the west.
125 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Weak ridging aloft will continue to build over the area through Monday.
Upper trough is currently situated roughly along the Mississippi River. Moist southerly low-level flow and mid-level southwesterly flow east of the trough axis will advect deeper moisture into the western half of the forecast area through the afternoon.
Cyclonic northwest flow aloft this afternoon with yet another perturbation passing through will give us another chance of some convection as a reinforcing cold front pushes through.
High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest, resulting in above normal temperatures through the weekend. Slightly cooler conditions are possible late in the week and into the weekend as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Latest streamline analysis reveals a dry northwesterly flow north of an anticyclone centered offshore of the southern Baja Peninsula. Latest RAP depicts the ridge axis extending northward from the anticyclone into southern California. Latest model guidance remains consistent and indicates the ridge will build northward and settle across the Desert Southwest the next few days.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region through midweek resulting in above average temperatures, especially across the interior. Meanwhile, onshore flow will persist and maintain cooler conditions near the coast through much of the week. The building high pressure system aloft will again result in widespread 80s to 90s across the interior while 60s and 70s will be more common near the coast. The forecast models had been indicating a weakening of the ridge aloft for late week, yet now show the potential for the ridge to strengthen and thus maintaining the very warm temperatures inland. However, will need to monitor for increased concerns late in the week if the forecast continues to trend warmer. SFO Bridge Approach.
In the wake of a cold front Tuesday evening. it will then turn somewhat cooler and more comfortable for much of the remainder of the week. Widespread convection Tuesday with passage of pre frontal trough during the day. and actual cold front late in the day-Tuesday evening. In the wake of the cold front.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region through midweek resulting in above average temperatures, especially across the interior. Meanwhile, onshore flow will persist and maintain cooler conditions near the coast through much of the week. The building high pressure system aloft will again result in widespread 80s to 90s across the interior while 60s and 70s will be more common near the coast. The forecast models had been indicating a weakening of the ridge aloft for late week, yet now show the potential for the ridge to strengthen and thus maintaining the very warm temperatures inland. However, will need to monitor for increased concerns late in the week if the forecast continues to trend warmer.
The upper trough will be slow to translate eastward placing the Central Plains and upper Midwest in northwest flow through midweek.
It would appear from water vapor satellite imagery that a couple of areas of low pressure are currently moving over South Dakota, maintaining just enough mid- level lift/forcing to produce a few showers across the state early this morning. There is also a subtle inverted surface trof/weak cool frontal boundary splayed out across the region, as well. Through Tuesday afternoon, temperatures are going to be running near to slightly below normal, while the region continues to feel the influence of the airmass associated with the large and slow moving closed upper level low positioned over Ontario, Canada.
949 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A cool northwest wind will filter in over the region in the wake of the cold front that passed through yesterday. High pressure builds in from the west and high temperatures will be in the 70s. High pressure to our west shifts slightly closer as the exiting low to the east. Continued energy from the stalled out upper level low over Ontario will further help to produce scattered rain showers across northern MN and into NW WI.
626 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A cool northwest wind will filter in over the region in the wake of the cold front that passed through yesterday. High pressure builds in from the west and high temperatures will be in the 70s. High pressure to our west shifts slightly closer as the exiting low to the east. Continued energy from the stalled out upper level low over Ontario will further help to produce scattered rain showers across northern MN and into NW WI.
Broad upper troughing over the Central Plains this morning with multiple vorticity maxes observed traversing the region. Elevated showers associated with a weak upper perturbation in central NE are expected to develop and shift southeast with a weak cold front today. Based on satellite trends upstream and forecast soundings however, believe cloud cover holds temps back a few degrees with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. A dry and cooler airmass arrives this evening behind the front, alleviating temps down into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Skies are mostly sunny as highs only reach the low 80s coupled with dewpoints down into the 50s. Upper ridge edges into the western high plains while a midlevel perturbation within the northwest flow aloft enters central Kansas late Tuesday evening.
Current satellite analysis has an upper level low centered over southern Manitoba and southwestern Ontario with a trough extending south-southwest through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Great Plains. An upper level ridge is over the west coast of CONUS with northwest flow aloft over the FA.
All this to say, the severe weather threat today appears on the low side, although non-zero. Should start to trend drier for Tuesday, although a wave sneaking down the back side of the Great Lake trough, along with favorable RH profiles should at the very least lead to ample Cu development, if not hit or miss showers. Temperatures should also be a shade cooler with some guidance keeping areas of SW MN stuck near 70.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across portions of northern Georgia by the early afternoon where likely pops have been included through the early evening. Tuesday is expected to be a few degrees cooler than today due to increased cloud cover and precipitation associated with the front leading to highs in the 80s to lower 90s. An upper trough anchored over the Great Lakes deepens into the southern Appalachians through the end of the week.
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A cool northwest wind will filter in over the region in the wake of the cold front that passed through yesterday. High pressure builds in from the west and high temperatures will be in the 70s. High pressure to our west shifts slightly closer as the exiting low to the east. Continued energy from the stalled out upper level low over Ontario will further help to produce scattered rain showers across northern MN and into NW WI.
405 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered off the coast of Baja, and a trough moving into the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. NBM came in at 107F, but dry soils and compressional warming ahead of tonight's cold front warrant adding at least a degree, for record-breaking temps for many locations. Somewhere in the mix of convective outflows will be a cold front moving in overnight and Tuesday to break the warm spell, bringing much cooler temps near Tuesday afternoon.
As a cold front slides through the region this evening, showers and storms will swing through the area this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures will arrive Tuesday, lingering into mid-week, with drier conditions moving back into the Midwest. As the cold front begins to approach the Midwest this afternoon, expecting shower and storm activity to ramp up and overspread the region. This system will finally push through the region tonight, bringing cooler air to the region, along with drier conditions.
Tuesday morning a cold front will be along the Ohio River on its way slowly toward the southeast through the day.