Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Main concern for the day will be increasing winds between 16Z-18Z as a dry cold front turns winds to NW. A weak cold front will sink south through the area today with little fanfare aside from winds veering to the northwest and becoming a bit gusty for a few hours this afternoon, particularly across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. The northwest breeze will make it feel a bit cooler, though winds are expected to diminish quickly by late afternoon/early evening as the front becomes diffuse and settles south toward the Rio Grande Valley.
GIVEN ANTICIPATED RATES AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ANTICIPATE BIG WARMUP ON SUN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH THE GOOD MIXING AND MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS.
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AREA OF SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY MENTION THIS MORNING BACK INTO DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOWFALL YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A LOBE OF COLDER AIR (-18 TO -19C AT 850 MB) SOUTHWARD. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NW MN. WITH MODEL RH SHOWING SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS AND INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
This, in turn, has allowed cold air SC in the wake of the low to advect much further s, with the leading edge of the clouds near the I-70 corridor at 08z. RUC 900MB RH prog seems to have a fairly good handle on current cloud trends, and based on its forecast it appears that the low clouds will continue to drop into southern sections of our CWA during the day, although I do expect some slowing of the southward progression as sunshine works on the leading edge of the cloud deck. Have leaned heavily towards the cooler MET guidance for max temps, as GFS MOS is oblivious to ongoing low cloudiness.
A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FLOW OVER THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGELINE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE EQUALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. RIDGE AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND MAX TEMPERATURE TODAY AS DESPITE RAIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE RIDGES EARLY EVENING BEFORE COLDER AND DRIER AIR INVADES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
300 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015 OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO BRING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS.
537 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS RIDGING UP THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT WITH A TANDEM OF CLOSED LOWS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL CANADA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND SRN KS. A WEAK AREA OF MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A GREATER SW TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WOULD ALLOW FOR READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S DURING PEAK HEATING.
CURRENT CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUGGEST HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHWEST WIND COLD ADVECTION. HENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S TODAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY NIGHT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
A warming trend will commence over the weekend as an upper level ridge shifts into the area.
/ISSUED 322 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015/ WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY MID-DAY AND PERHAPS BRING WITH IT A FEW EXTRA MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DRIVING ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST. BUT AS THE UA RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
634 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 SUBTLE SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
554 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Despite the presence of a larger meridional upper trough centered over Plains other than an extensive region of stratus expect benign but seasonably cold conditions today. With the low clouds likely to last for most if not all day the diurnal range should be limited to around 5F. However, a secondary area of high pressure will overspread the region Friday night. Overnight lows will dip into the middle/upper teens across the northern 1/2 of the CWA where winds will likely go calm as the center of the high passes overhead. As has been advertised for the past several days warm advection will reassert itself over the weekend as upstream upper level ridging builds and advances eastward.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF COOL WEATHER BEFORE WARMER AIR BRINGS A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
408 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Despite the presence of a larger meridional upper trough centered over Plains other than an extensive region of stratus expect benign but seasonably cold conditions today. With the low clouds likely to last for most if not all day the diurnal range should be limited to around 5F. However, a secondary area of high pressure will overspread the region Friday night. Overnight lows will dip into the middle/upper teens across the northern 1/2 of the CWA where winds will likely go calm as the center of the high passes overhead. As has been advertised for the past several days warm advection will reassert itself over the weekend as upstream upper level ridging builds and advances eastward.
TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE LITTLE. RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS MAY BRING VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO KEYW LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD.
A Pacific cold front will move east through the area around noon shifting the winds to the west around 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. /issued 347 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ (Today and Tonight) As an upper trough axis passes over the forecast area today, an associated Pacific cold front will push south through the CWA. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 50s over the Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
230 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015 A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.
622 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ATTENTION TONIGHT THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY. CONFIDENCE WAS THERE TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND LARAMIE VALLEY. MENTIONED THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING. THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL END AFTER MIDDAY AS THE TEMPS MOSTLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING.
228 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO FRI PUSHING DRY SLOT ACROSS THE REGION. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST PUSHING THE STREAMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN CHALLENGE COMES IN WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES OVER THE REGION WITH CAA MOVING IN PLACE. DO EXPECT LOW'S NEAR THE UPPER 30S UP NORTH WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER INTERIOR VALLEY AND THE LOWER RGV. THICKNESS SLIGHTLY RISE WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BUT MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH'S ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST TO THE WEST OF N ALABAMA. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MODERATE BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
AND REFLECT THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING SITES TO REACH THE LOW 50'S. STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AND SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C SHOULD LIMIT ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
1122 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER IN THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY COMPARED TO THOSE JUST TO THE EAST AND WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE.
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO IOWA. WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HIGHRES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BUT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL - ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
1019 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 Cold high pressure is streaming down the Plains currently with the center of the high passing to our east.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
WHILE A RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA DOWN INTO OUR AREA. PRESSURE FALLS WERE HIGHEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW BEING THERE TONIGHT.
WITH MEMPHIS AND TUPELO IN THE LOW 30S. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TODAY KEEPING US DRY AND COLD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR IOWA.
947 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016 TEMPERATURES LOWER A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 A cold front is currently moving through the area this afternoon with a quick hitting cold snap for the weekend. Clouds will increase on Saturday and temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing over southwestern Missouri and will be in the middle 20s across central Missouri.
A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST.
1125 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S COLD FROPA.
AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWR RGV. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SAVE FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
331 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED E-E ACROSS SE TX. /ISSUED 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM CST SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON CO TO LIBERTY CO/. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TOWARD THE GULF TONIGHT.
/issued 327 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler today than yesterday behind a weak backdoor cold front that is coming into the area this morning.
VALUES IN THE LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
324 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AIRMASS THAT IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA.
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS. OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT.
May see some areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle develop late tonight.
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN HOWEVER THE SATURATION PROCESS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WITH RESIDUAL DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
935 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016 A cold front will pass through the region tonight with continued precipitation chances and slightly lower snow levels.
An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies with a long wave trough over the east coast. An area of low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering into the Northern Plains. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds take more of a southerly direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to build across Northern and Central Plains.
327 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler today than yesterday behind a weak backdoor cold front that is coming into the area this morning.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR WARM FRONTS TO BRING RAIN.
/ISSUED 934 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ WEAK REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SEEN ON SFC OBS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN MN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
THIS MOVEMENT WAS DUE TO A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AREAS IN THE NORTH WILL JUST EXPERIENCE LESSER TIME BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
SKIES ARE CLOUDY AS THE AREA LIES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. THERE IS PATCHY FREEZING FOG THAT WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. AND EVEN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS GO ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES. BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT NOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH LOUISIANA COAST. FEATURE PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD ADVANCE DEEPER INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS.
Some light freezing precipitation is expected at the northwest Arkansas TAF sites. /ISSUED 911 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ The center of arctic high pressure was near Sioux Falls, SD this evening. Beyond this forecast time conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate as moisture increases and deepens over the area head of the next low pressure system.
WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AND A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE LAND AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM DETAIL THE CENTER OF A COLD 1043 BM ANTICYCLONE OVER MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO TEXAS.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER S-CENTRAL TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
At the surface, observations showed a cold ridge of high pressure centered along the SD and MN state line moving towards northern IA. A good warm air advection pattern is progged to develop overnight as the wave passes and isentropic surfaces are showing good upglide through the depth of the low clouds. So the predominant precip type looks to be freezing drizzle. The prev shift had included a mention of freezing fog across north central KS. With the cloud cover and low level warm air advection pattern, Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 20s.
357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN. TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA.
847 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016 TEMPERATURES LOWER A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
929 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016 A STRONGER PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE STAGNANT WEST COAST RIDGE. EAST COAST TROUGH PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK. THE LEADING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET IS PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN CORE OF THE JET AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.
432 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS ALONG THE HILINE TO BETTER MATCH COOLER OBSERVED TEMPS.
TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL.
305 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 Very mild temperatures continue to be the main story in the short term period, as ridging now over the High Plains pushes east and southwesterly flow develops throughout the low- to mid-levels, promoting mixing and an eastward translation of the 60s currently painted across much of western and central KS.
1211 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
318 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES T0NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE. SO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WILL PUSH IN TOMORROW EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
257 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 417 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U. LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUALLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
FURTHER WEST A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN TN AND NW MISSISSIPPI. MESOSCALE MODELS DO MOVE THIS CLOUD COVER OVER NW TN AND NW MS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. THEY SEEM TO THIN OUT THE CLOUD COVER AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. RAISING HIGHS WEST OF I-65 INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND MID SOUTH. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
A NARROW BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TODAY FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.