Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now just south and east of the forecast area with light north to northwest winds across the area. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the northern Rockies into the eastern Great Basin.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler and drier conditions today and tonight. Currently, northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a high amplitude ridge over the Rockies and a long wave trough to our east.
I've included 30% chance, though that might be a little on the high side given the limited forcing and subsidence from Isaias.
429 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A cold front will traverse the region today and bring scattered showers. Cooler temperatures will follow for Sunday, along with lingering clouds across the east with clearing skies across the west. Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP13 500mb heights showed an upper level trough across the region. Forecast soundings show a fairly think layer of clouds, so for that reason decreased the high temperatures across far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
This front will slowly drift south but not make much progress as the region remains under a fairly deep trough for this time of year. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: A cold front remains draped from central LA through eastern MS/western AL this morning ahead of an anomalously deep mid/upper trough for this time of year. Given little movement of the trough axis, this front will remain quasi-stationary over the next 24 hours.
631 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The main story today is the passage of a cool/cold front along with associated shower/isolated thunderstorm risk.
High pressure over the southwest United States will continue to provide dry conditions, sending daytime temperatures at or above the 100 degree mark through the weekend, perhaps breaking more temperature records. High pressure enveloping much of the Great Basin will remain centered over the northern Baja peninsula and Arizona through the weekend. The anomalously-high amplitude ridge axis is striking through Arizona and Utah, extending 580DM heights all the way north past the 60th parallel, close to the Arctic Circle. The ridge axis and amplification peak is expected to hold pretty steady through Sunday.
624 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Drier air moves in today as high pressure drops down from Canada. The high will build in further on Sunday with dry weather dominating through the weekend. Will start with dry, cool conditions thanks to slow moving high pressure extending out of Canada.
329 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Even though the last few days have seen some unusual overnight and early morning thunderstorms for Glasgow and other areas of northeast Montana, a stalled weather pattern and all available model data suggest that any thunderstorm activity today will be confined to the higher elevations of central Montana - likely Fergus County this morning.
Will then maintain VCTS through the remainder of the TAFs as a sharp upper trof approaches the area along with a cool front. support for storms was provided by an upper level low over MO w/ the trof axis extending back into west Texas. SE Vernon parish and central Jasper county has seen the highest rainfall totals three to four inches.
support for storms was provided by an upper level low over MO w/ the trof axis extending back into west Texas. SE Vernon parish and central Jasper county has seen the highest rainfall totals three to four inches.
The weak cold front that moved through the area will stall south of the area today. With ample sunshine, temperatures will warm a few to several degrees across the area today, with highs from the low 90s to near 100 degrees.
411 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Drier air moves in today as high pressure drops down from Canada. The high will build in further on Sunday with dry weather dominating through the weekend. Will start with dry, cool conditions thanks to slow moving high pressure extending out of Canada.
312 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Strong high pressure anchored over the northern Rockies will leave us under NW flow aloft w/ above normal heights. Sunday should be just slightly warmer than today. Despite the above normal heights, east winds will keep us cooler than locations west of the divide where the heat is much more significant.
447 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now just south and east of the forecast area with light north to northwest winds across the area. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the northern Rockies into the eastern Great Basin.
Roxy PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Even though the last few days have seen some unusual overnight and early morning thunderstorms for Glasgow and other areas of northeast Montana, a stalled weather pattern and all available model data suggest that any thunderstorm activity today will be confined to the higher elevations of central Montana - likely Fergus County this morning.
644 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Rain will continue to develop today and spread north as a low pressure area moves northeast from far southern Illinois to southeast Lower Michigan Sunday morning.
447 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 (Today and tonight) Latest synoptic-scale analysis shows an amplified flow pattern across the country, with anomalous ridging across the west and departing cyclone to our east. Modest moisture and weak instability should result in at least isolated convection along a cold front in Kansas this afternoon.
633 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon along a cold front that will push through the area this afternoon through tonight. Cooler, well below normal, temps will stick around for through the end of the period as a deep trough sits across the eastern CONUS leaving the region in a northwest flow pattern aloft. Upper ridging starts to build in mid week which will put a halt to the unseasonably cool air across the region. Currently have an upper trough extending through the Mississippi Valley with the Plains in north/northwest flow aloft. Feel that areas generally along and west of I-135 will have the higher chances with this activity having a strong diurnal component, resulting in a quick decrease after sunset.
This morning at 08Z a cold front extended from central Minnesota into South Dakota. Temperatures today will top out in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s near the Kansas and Nebraska border to the mid 60s across east central Kansas. Sunday will be cooler with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s behind the front.
501 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Upper trough through the Plains states early this morning to move into the Mississippi River Valley later today, tonight and into Sunday. Isaias track forecast has trended slightly slower and to the east and should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge through today and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. Weak high pressure over the area today for light winds and seas then winds to increase and shift northerly as Isaias approaches SE FL tonight.
429 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Today and tonight: A cold front remains draped from central LA through eastern MS/western AL this morning ahead of an anomalously deep mid/upper trough for this time of year. Given little movement of the trough axis, this front will remain quasi-stationary over the next 24 hours.
/DL/ Today and tonight: A cold front remains draped from central LA through eastern MS/western AL this morning ahead of an anomalously deep mid/upper trough for this time of year. Given little movement of the trough axis, this front will remain quasi-stationary over the next 24 hours.
803 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Atlantic high pressure stretching across the area and out over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to weaken later today and tonight. Weak high pressure continues across the waters today with winds/seas not higher than 15 knots/2 feet.
BT Strong high pressure anchored over the northern Rockies will leave us under NW flow aloft w/ above normal heights. Sunday should be just slightly warmer than today. Despite the above normal heights, east winds will keep us cooler than locations west of the divide where the heat is much more significant.
619 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 At 08Z, a surface cold front was analyzed across northeast into southwest South Dakota. Temperatures across western and north central Nebraska were in the lower to mid 60s. A slight chance for showers or thunderstorms until mid morning across southeastern counties near the passing cold front and weak disturbance. With the cold front passing through by late morning, highs today will be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to around 80 north central to around 85 southwest. ON Sunday, 850mb temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler for highs from 75 to 80. Sunday night, an upper trough is forecast to extend from the Great Lakes through the lower Mississippi Valley with an upper ridge extending over the Great Basin in the west.
Highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees can be expected in interior areas while coastal sites remain in the lower to mid 60s.
643 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A cold front will traverse the region today and bring scattered showers. Cooler temperatures will follow for Sunday, along with lingering clouds across the east with clearing skies across the west. Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP13 500mb heights showed an upper level trough across the region. Forecast soundings show a fairly think layer of clouds, so for that reason decreased the high temperatures across far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Winds will remain light and should become northerly following the passage of a cold front.
An upper trough will move into the area this weekend to provide for cooler temperatures and onshore flow.
Satellite loops show a weak disturbance topping the ridge and this is the likely reason that these showers exist.
A broad mid/upper level trough was noted over the Mid Mississippi Valley early this morning.
333 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A secondary cold front is currently tracking south across the local area this afternoon.
A cold front will edge southeast across the region tonight into Sunday bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. More abundant cloud cover on Sunday and cooler air starting to slide in from the northwest will lead to highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Sunday night, the upper-level long-wave trough continues to slowly move eastward out of the region.
244 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The cold front in the Upper Midwest currently extends from Lake Superior southeast across MN and through Sioux Falls.
Sunday looks to be a different story, as developing southeast winds on the plains will produce a plume of moisture wrapping from eastern border areas up towards the Cheyenne Ridge and areas north of Denver. By late afternoon, we should have dew points in the lower 50s with CAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg. The threat to Denver is likely a little lower as the city won't be in the best moisture nor downwind of the low level convergence, and activity further south could focus on a Palmer Divide boundary. Cooler temperatures near the eastern border and transition to outflow-driven storms should eventually limit the severe threat, though the low level convergence will drive a combined wind/hail threat across most of the plains.
In addition, a weak cold front is slated to track across the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
1115 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Drier air continues to filter southward across the region in the wake of our recent and rare mid-summer cold front. Winds will remain light and should become northerly following the passage of a cold front.
Upper level trough axis will lift out of Texas through the short term, with most of the upper level support for convection now east of the CWA. Global models hint at a weak short wave passing over the region on Sunday around the tail end of the trough. Forecast soundings show minimal instability tomorrow with around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE but a classic inverted V in the lower levels.
213 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A warm front will approach from the Ohio valley late today and tonight. Retreating high pressure will provide fair dry weather for the bulk of the region this afternoon. The exception will be across the far western counties where showers will steadily creep in ahead of a slow moving warm front. The warm front will support an increasing coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms tonight.
312 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Thunderstorms will gradually weaken and taper off this evening as low pressure initially over southern Indiana pulls off toward Lake Erie. Tomorrow an upper trof and weak surface boundary will be just off to our west from the Great Lakes to Texas. Once the morning clouds break up, many locations will have a decent afternoon between the hit-and-miss showers with highs in the lower 80s, dew points in the mid 60s, and a west breeze. Sunday night begins with the axis of a large upper trough digging south from the southern tip of Hudson Bay in Canada all the way down to Houston, Texas.
352 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the wrn Gulf maintaining a general wrly low-level flow over the forecast area, while a weak front is noted just to our north. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place from the Great Lakes sswwd to the wrn Gulf Coast/srn TX with a series of weak disturbances noted passing through it.
1023 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Cooler and drier air will continue to push in from Canadian high pressure through the day. This will push the lower clouds across the southern cwa out. Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s still look good. Drier air moves in today as high pressure drops down from Canada. The high will build in further on Sunday with dry weather dominating through the weekend. Will start with dry, cool conditions thanks to slow moving high pressure extending out of Canada.
Despite diurnal cooling, hires models show coverage of showers and storms continuing to ramp up tonight along and ahead of sfc warm front moving into CPA. Behind the departing low, the sfc cold front will be slow to clear the area, resulting in possible PM convection.
309 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Cold front moving through the region at 20z is helping to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms across the region. And a reinforcing lobe of cooler temps aloft on Sunday, wouldn't be surprised if isolated instability showers develop along and east of the Missouri River Sunday afternoon. Cooler than normal temperatures on average 10 degrees below climatology will continue through the middle of the upcoming week.
1140 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Upper ridge remains to the west of forecast area with weak wave sliding down ridge across WY.
256 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough from the Hudson Bay extending south through the lower MS river valley. An upper ridge was centered over southern CA/AZ with another upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, low pressure was over northern KY with ridging along the lee of the central Rockies. For Sunday a cooler and dryer airmass is expected to move in as high pressure builds south through the plains.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500mb trough across east Texas extending into south Texas tonight will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms across lower and middle coastal sections of Texas this afternoon into this evening as well as across portions of deep South Texas as a weak stationary frontal boundary across portions of south Texas provides a focus for low level convergence as well as the seabreeze front along the coastal sections and an outflow boundary across the middle Rio Grande Valley from the overnight convection that moved in the western portions of the CWA late last night.
Through Sunday, the region will remain under a thin ridge sandwiched between an upper trough to the west and Isaias to the east.
Temperatures have climbed into the 80s while dewpoints remain fairly comfortable in the low 60s south o upper 50s north. Tomorrow will see increasing temperatures and humidity as low pressure tracks to our north up the St.
Much cooler as the upper level trough has pushed into the Pacific northwest.
1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon along a cold front that will push through the area this afternoon through tonight. Cooler, well below normal, temps will stick around for through the end of the period as a deep trough sits across the eastern CONUS leaving the region in a northwest flow pattern aloft. Upper ridging starts to build in mid week which will put a halt to the unseasonably cool air across the region. Otherwise, while slight backing in the surface wind field is expected ahead of a weak cold front/trof, northerly component flow will prevail most of the forecast valid period.
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A cold front will traverse the region today and bring scattered showers. Cooler temperatures will follow for Sunday, along with lingering clouds across the east with clearing skies across the west. Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP13 500mb heights showed an upper level trough across the region. Forecast soundings show a fairly think layer of clouds, so for that reason decreased the high temperatures across far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
211 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a well defined area of low pressure currently lifting NE through Middle TN. Surface analysis shows the attendant cold front stretching from the Middle TN area SW through North and Central MS. With the frontal boundary shifted south of the area and another surface based system to our west, cooler and drier air will settle over the area.
As a ridge of high pressure moves north over forecast area, an area of convergence has developed across forecast area roughly along a line from around Lake City to Brunswick. The ridge will slowly move to the north through Tonight.
Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the cntrl TN Valley this late Sat morning, as a weak cold front over the Mid South region gradually approaches NW AL. The better mid/upper forcing looks to be displaced just to the N/NE, as an upper trough axis begins to rotate ewd thru the Midwest/OH Valley states. Thus stayed with dry weather, with highs in the mid 80s, and lows in the mid 60s, thanks to unseasonably deep troughing in place.
Sunday should be another nice day, although it will be a little warmer as we continue to dry out further. This pattern features an upper- level ridge over the Southwest, with a trough axis to the northeast across the Midwest and into the Mississippi River Valley. Leading up to this pattern, we will see a pair of mid-summer cold fronts make their way through our region.
1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The main story today is the passage of a cool/cold front along with associated shower/isolated thunderstorm risk.
Over the next few hours, the cyclone will make its closest approach to the Upper Keys. With the high level of confidence afforded at this time horizon, it is safe to say that the storm will pass without any further low risk of tropical-storm force winds for the Upper Keys. As the cyclone moves by to our east and northeast today and tonight, winds will gradually veer from northeast to north.
A cold front was slowly pushing into northwest Wisconsin. The cold front will continue to slowly push southeast across the area tonight. On Sunday, the upper trough will swing across northeast Wisconsin. High temperatures will occur during the morning across east-central Wisconsin before showers and storms and increasing northerly winds bring in cooler temperatures for the afternoon. Sunday Night Through Saturday The chance for showers will continue Sunday night, mainly across central and east-central Wisconsin, as a mid level trough sinks south across the western Great Lakes region. Behind the trough cooler temperatures will be below normal through the middle part of the week.
325 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Surface observations and satellite imagery show a cold front pushing south across the Central Plains this afternoon. Despite cooler temps aloft, lapse rates are on the weaker side and, combined with lower dewpoints, may only support modest destabilization ahead of the front (1000-1500 MLCAPE). Initially, convection should be confined to the High Plains, with stable/drier air remaining over central/eastern KS.
We will see min temps in the lower to mid 70s inland tonight and warmer max temps tomorrow back into the mid/upper 90s inland.
304 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The upper level trough is finally slowly exiting the area as a surface cold front begins pushing into northwest Iowa.
/Tonight through Saturday/ An upper level short wave moving across the Upper Midwest today is driving a cold front south through southeast South Dakota and southern Minnesota this afternoon and was just entering northwest Iowa.
1021 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Upper ridge remains to the west of forecast area with weak wave sliding down ridge across WY.
340 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the wrn Gulf maintaining a general wrly low-level flow over the forecast area, while a weak front is noted just to our north. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place from the Great Lakes sswwd to the wrn Gulf Coast/srn TX with a series of weak disturbances noted passing through it.
The positioning of this trough will keep our area generally dry-slotted overall, with best diurnal convective chances through this evening over the Plateau, and then the best diurnal convective chances Sunday afternoon over the eastern Mountains.
Cooler and drier air will continue to push in from Canadian high pressure through the day. This will push the lower clouds across the southern cwa out. Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s still look good. Drier air moves in today as high pressure drops down from Canada. The high will build in further on Sunday with dry weather dominating through the weekend. Will start with dry, cool conditions thanks to slow moving high pressure extending out of Canada.
1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 For the 01/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are observed at all TAF sites with the lone exception of LFK where MVFR cigs will continue to persist for another hour or two right along a weak cold front which continues to slowly advance southward. /issued 1115 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020/ Drier air continues to filter southward across the region in the wake of our recent and rare mid-summer cold front.
331 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 An upper trough from the Great Lakes into the mid MS Valley will deepen across the southeast through the period. This area will be on the southern fringes of a closed low moving northeast through the OH Valley.
Dry conditions and hot temperatures continue today, with values only slightly cooler than yesterday.
After a brief lull in precip chances, a cold front currently extending from Lake Superior to southeast Nebraska will approach from the northwest and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area by Sunday afternoon.
246 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A warm front will approach from the Ohio valley late today and tonight. Retreating high pressure will provide fair dry weather for the bulk of the region this afternoon. The exception will be across the far western counties where showers will steadily creep in ahead of a slow moving warm front. The warm front will support an increasing coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop again today over the high terrain then move south into nearby valleys and highlands.
The main difference today, the Low pressure system will FINALLY move through the region and exit into the lower Great Lakes tonight into Sunday morning. The stalled out boundary remains near the Ohio River Valley region, and will remain south of the CWA until the Low begins a ne track. Lowered temps today to the low 70s across eastern Illinois, while nw of the IL River Valley, expect temps to warm into the upper 70s.