Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect a fairly nice day across the Northern Rockies today as a brief ridge moves over the region.
Mostly light snow is expected across the higher elevations, with a mix to rain or drizzle in the lower elevations with diurnal heating. Ridging will amplify immediately to our east tonight as an approaching trough crosses the central US.
415 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Low pressure that brought light showers to central Georgia has exited eastward, bringing an end to any rainfall in the southeast CWA this morning. Today will bring a dry interim day as upper ridging briefly builds over the Southeast.
Today Through Friday Night Lots of clouds will be noted the next couple of days, despite some ridging/high pressure early in the period.
Afterwards, a broad upper ridge will move in from the Pacific Northwest.
Today and Tomorrow: The low stratus deck is still in place over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. That has helped keep temperatures a bit warmer than expected overnight. Thursday night, a cold front will move through the forecast area and bring with a chance of precipitation. Any precipitation in Nebraska and western Iowa would be light and in the form of flurries or freezing drizzle. The cold front will lead to slightly cooler temperatures on Friday with highs ranging from 33-37.
SPC is advertising a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in their day 2 convective outlook in the vicinity of the warm front, but that may be more of a risk from mainland south Florida.
620 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Once a system moves off the coast this morning, high pressure will bring dry conditions today into Friday morning.
Even though the lower clouds will gradually mix out by later this morning, high level clouds moving in from the west ahead of the next system will result in partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Temperatures will be tricky and could be cooler than current forecast if the clouds linger longer than expected, but still expect readings to reach into the mid and upper 60s across the Nature Coast, and around 70 to the lower 70s central and south during the afternoon.
625 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure over the region today and Friday will move offshore this weekend as several systems bring us chances of rain and snow showers.
616 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 A prefrontal trough has moved through most of western Nebraska except the far eastern zones where areas of fog continued. A cold front will also advance east past Highway 83 by late afternoon with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. An amplified nearly northerly flow aloft will linger on Friday, as the upper trough axis extends through the Great Lakes, southwest into north central Texas.
953 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will continue to build north of the region through tonight.
RAOBs sampled an impressive high level jet streak across South TX last evening, which has since expanded east downstream of an upper trough over NW Mexico. Once the mid-level impulse and spotty showers exit the region later this morning, available forcing should subside a bit until tonight with the arrival of stronger height falls accompanying the main upper trough. Following the passage of a cold front and upper trough axis early Fri morning, subsidence and drying should make for a quick exodus of showers ahead of a slightly milder, but mostly sunny afternoon.
As has been the pattern for the past several days, weak forcing from this warm air advection may be enough to kick off flurries or light freezing drizzle today. Going into tonight, the main area of upper level vorticity associated with the trough will help to produce a more potent area of precipitation, mainly from central minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. However, cannot rule out some light freezing drizzle at times as there will likely be some periods where only the lowest ~3k feet are saturated tonight into Friday, especially at the onset and end of the main area of precipitation. Temperatures will slowly warm today and Friday with highs in the 20s as warmer air moves in with light southerly winds.
Today and Tomorrow: The low stratus deck is still in place over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. That has resulted in temperatures overnight being a bit warmer than expected. Thursday night, a cold front will move through the forecast area and bring with a chance of precipitation. Any precipitation in Nebraska and western Iowa would be light and in the form of flurries or freezing drizzle. The cold front will lead to slightly cooler temperatures on Friday with highs ranging from 33-37.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and another jump in temperatures by this weekend. The trough axis is now east of our area this morning, with a strong ridge spreading in from the west over the next 72 hours.
147 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure over the region will move offshore on Friday. The high will gradually shift east of our area on Friday. The high will keep us dry during this time. Even after lowering highs down a degree or two for this afternoon, still expecting temperatures to reach close to climatology for the end of January and 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast highs on Friday are another few degrees warmer than today (mid to upper 30s). This weekend an upper level trough moves through.
253 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure over the region will move offshore on Friday. The high will gradually shift east of our area on Friday. The high will keep us dry during this time. Even after lowering highs down a degree or two for this afternoon, still expecting temperatures to reach close to climatology for the end of January and 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast highs on Friday are another few degrees warmer than today (mid to upper 30s).
Low level winds will veer this evening and overnight as the trough moves east and a cold front approaches northwest/west central Oklahoma. Additional clouds will form ahead of another trough approaching from the northwest.
1107 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will provide tranquil weather through late week. An upper level trough will bring occasional rain and snow showers this weekend, but the associated coastal low is likely to remain too far east to affect central Pennsylvania.
The chance for showers will return for the second half of the night, with the higher chances across the Florida Panhandle. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, particularly inland across southeast AL and southwest GA, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Warm air advection with the ridge axis east of the area will result in highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
115 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 Flow aloft has veered and dried this afternoon just behind a passing upper level low pressure trough. Situation changes after midnight as a low amplitude upper trough currently sliding southward through the central Rockies moves into the southern Rockies and High Plains. And a cold front moving south in tandem with this forcing will add low level lift, with best frontal forcing just east through the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains where deeper moisture and synoptic lifting will be less favorable. Friday should see the upper trough continue south with mid clouds clearing but breezy, cool conditions otherwise.
High pressure along the eastern seaboard will maintain dry weather across the forecast area tonight through early on Friday with a slow increase in clouds expected as the next weather system approaches from the west.
Some low level thermodynamics lead this trough in, evidenced by isentropic upglide and 850 mb warm air advection, but it's weak at best. X-sections and bufkit soundings both indicate this potential, and with some weak lift through the saturated layer suggests freezing drizzle would be possible. Snowfall up to 1/2 inch is currently expected, maybe some spotty icing if freezing drizzle is realized.
1146 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 A prefrontal trough has moved through most of western Nebraska except the far eastern zones where areas of fog continued. A cold front will also advance east past Highway 83 by late afternoon with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. An amplified nearly northerly flow aloft will linger on Friday, as the upper trough axis extends through the Great Lakes, southwest into north central Texas.
300 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted trough moving through the middle of the country. Once this system moves out, we'll move into a warming trend with broad upper ridging spreading over much of the CONUS.
Temps today should generally be about average, with 40s to lower 50s over the southeast plains, mid and upper 30s in Teller County, 30s to around 40 in the Upper Arkansas River Valley, and in the lower to mid 30s in the San Luis Valley.
Ice is present in clouds, so freezing drizzle isn't a concern until Friday afternoon when we lose the ice aloft and therefore have some mention of fzdz in the forecast with spotty coverage.
400 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will provide tranquil weather through late week. An upper level trough will bring occasional rain and snow showers this weekend, but the associated coastal low is forecast to remain too far off the Mid Atlantic coast to affect central Pennsylvania. High pressure slowly migrating eastward across New England will maintain fair weather in central PA through tonight.
1026 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure centered near New England will move off the Atlantic coast on Friday.
This will shift rain chances south and east of the region tonight and push a weak cold front towards the Hill Country Friday midday, but cloud cover will linger into the morning hours Friday as moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion located between 900-800 MB.
Ridging will amplify immediately to our east tonight as an approaching trough crosses the central US.
Breaks in the clouds across northern Mississippi and portions of southwest Tennessee has allow temperatures to warm to the low to mid 50s. A weak trough will sweep across the Mid- South tonight allowing for the chance for periodic rain showers through Friday afternoon. A nice weekend is on tap for the Mid-South as we enter into a new month! As upper level troughing progresses through the area on Friday, strong upper ridging will begin to build into the region.
1209 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will extend south across the Carolinas through Friday.
226 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will provide tranquil weather through late week. An upper level trough will bring occasional rain and snow showers this weekend, but the associated coastal low is forecast to remain too far off the Mid Atlantic coast to affect central Pennsylvania. High pressure slowly migrating eastward across New England will maintain fair weather in central PA through tonight.
We will keep on the northern fridge of a Gulf coast storm with just light shwrs or DZ along with BR/FG especially around daybreak through the mid morning at least. Scattered showers to increase in coverage from the west today as a broad low to mid-level trough translates east across the region tonight into Friday. Rain chances to diminish from the west on Friday as 700mb trough axis moves east of the Mississippi river. Slightly warmer conditions expected on Friday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
1 in nearly all locations, and will have at monitor the freezing drizzle to see the threat level there. Temperatures will fall to the lower to mid 20s tonight, and rise to the lower to mid 30s Friday, a few degrees milder than today given the light southerly flow.
308 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will continue to build north of the region through tonight.
1141 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 Radar still shows some scattered weak echos along the Highway 60 corridor. May still see some lingering flurries/sprinkles this afternoon, but above freezing surface temperatures will preclude any accumulations or impacts with this. With temperatures at or below freezing, some minor ice accretion will be possible on elevated surfaces. We will keep tabs on this situation closely as increasing freezing drizzle coverage or road impacts may warrant a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory. Lows tonight will again dip to around, or just below the freezing mark.
1146 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 (Today and tonight) Due to near freezing temperatures, light winds, and recent snow accumulations, a freezing fog advisory was issued for a few of our W/NW counties through 15Z today. Latest observations indicate subfreezing temperatures over these counties with dew point depressions at/near 0-2 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies will begin to diminish over NW OK late this afternoon and daytime highs will reach the low 40s.
1233 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Widespread prevailing IFR/MVFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR after 21Z as the low clouds erode. Even though the lower clouds will gradually mix out by later this morning, high level clouds moving in from the west ahead of the next system will result in partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Temperatures will be tricky and could be cooler than current forecast if the clouds linger longer than expected, but still expect readings to reach into the mid and upper 60s across the Nature Coast, and around 70 to the lower 70s central and south during the afternoon.
Rain will hold off until after about 6z with the highest chances during the day on Friday. Low amplitude ridging will temporarily build in aloft in the wake of yesterday's frontal system. No rain is expected today, with highs climbing into the low to mid 60s.
1005 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 The center of the low pressure that moved across Florida overnight and this morning is currently located around 200 miles to the east of Daytona Beach. A tight pressure gradient on the backside of this low has left east central Florida in a breezy northerly flow, especially along the coast, with widespread low stratus. As the low departs farther out to sea this afternoon winds will acquire more of an onshore component bringing some showers onshore across Brevard and Volusia county.
900 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will provide tranquil weather through late week. An upper level trough will bring occasional rain and snow showers this weekend, but the associated coastal low is forecast to remain too far off the Mid Atlantic coast to affect central Pennsylvania. High pressure slowly migrating eastward across New England will maintain fair weather in central PA through tonight.
Much warmer than average temperatures prevail this weekend as a fast moving H5 ridge moves through the northern Plains.
A well- defined trough axis extends south from this cyclone all the way to the Big Bend of TX. Two warm conveyor belts exist downstream of this trough axis, one associated with the subtropical jet along the Gulf Coast and the other streaming across the Ozarks into the Lower OH River Valley. Breaks in the clouds across northern Mississippi and portions of southwest Tennessee has allow temperatures to warm to the low to mid 50s. A weak trough will sweep across the Mid- South tonight allowing for the chance for periodic rain showers through Friday afternoon. A nice weekend is on tap for the Mid-South as we enter into a new month! As upper level troughing progresses through the area on Friday, strong upper ridging will begin to build into the region.
606 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure over the region will move offshore on Friday. The high will gradually shift east of our area on Friday. The high will keep us dry during this time. Even after lowering highs down a degree or two for this afternoon, still expecting temperatures to reach close to climatology for the end of January and 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast highs on Friday are another few degrees warmer than today (mid to upper 30s).
Otherwise, isolated to scattered snow showers across the east this afternoon with first short wave will move east into the evening with more widespread light snow moving in tonight as another upper level trough/shear axis slides in from the northwest. Therefore, the low clouds will move east through the day with sunshine expected. Upper ridging will nudge into the northern Plains this weekend.
Concur with the model blend which indicates cool tonight with lows in the 40s, highs Friday in the lower 60s, and cold Friday night with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
419 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will maintain dry, but cloudy weather with seasonable temperature through much of Friday.
Low temperatures will range from near freezing across the south to the middle 20s across NE Missouri. Even with the heavy cloud cover temperatures will warm into the low to mid 40s.
858 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will maintain dry, but cloudy weather with seasonable temperature through much of Friday.
646 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will provide tranquil weather through late week. An upper level trough will bring occasional rain and snow showers this weekend, but the associated coastal low is forecast to remain too far off the Mid Atlantic coast to affect central Pennsylvania. High pressure slowly migrating eastward across New England will maintain fair weather in central PA through tonight.
Much warmer temperatures and sunny skies are in store, with temperatures flirting with near-record values. This transient area of light precipitation is associated with ample moisture ahead of the main trough translating across the middle CONUS. Later this evening and overnight tonight, a cold front will push through the region and flip winds around to blow out of the northwest. Temperatures will be warmer than those observed today but the northerly flow will keep them in check, so overall they will end up right around normal values for the last day of January.
This low pressure system will bring the chance of rain amounts up to a half an inch tomorrow for most locations.
450 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2020 Afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a upper trough over the Great Plains and upper ridge from the eastern Pacific into WA/OR.
615 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure over the region will move offshore on Friday. The high will gradually shift east of our area on Friday. The high will keep us dry during this time. Even after lowering highs down a degree or two for this afternoon, still expecting temperatures to reach close to climatology for the end of January and 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast highs on Friday are another few degrees warmer than today (mid to upper 30s).
The large ridge of high pressure off the coast of California will begin to build eastward over our region Friday, but expect another day with temperatures a couple of degrees below normal despite a good amount of sunshine for most places.
542 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted trough moving through the middle of the country. Once this system moves out, we'll move into a warming trend with broad upper ridging spreading over much of the CONUS.
Clouds are expected to fill back into the area overnight as a cold front pushes through. Not expecting any precip with the frontal passage as soundings show not much moisture in the lower to mid layers. With the north winds in place, temps will be very similar to today if not a touch cooler.
This is largely due the increasing northwest wind behind the cold front. On Friday, some sprinkles/flurries may linger into the morning, but should come to an end between 15-18Z as the upper level trough axis moves through. We will kick off February with a very warm weekend thanks to broad ridging at the mid and upper levels.
840 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will provide tranquil weather through late week. An upper level trough will bring occasional rain and snow showers this weekend, but the associated coastal low is forecast to remain too far off the Mid Atlantic coast to affect central Pennsylvania. High pressure slowly migrating eastward across New England will maintain fair weather in central PA through tonight.
Otherwise, even with the persistent clouds, weak WAA will help temps climb into the lower 30s.
330 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2020 Afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a upper trough over the Great Plains and upper ridge from the eastern Pacific into WA/OR.
This afternoon temperatures should remain just above freezing and keep a rain/snow mix through early evening, keeping any snow accumulations minimal. Heading into the early evening however, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing and the precipitation type should be all snow as the system continues to move eastward. As for snowfall amounts, there is a little uncertainly in the amount of snowfall accumulation, given temperatures were slightly warmer this afternoon, initial snowfall will most likely not accumulate on the ground but as temperatures continue to cool, snow will begin to accumulate. 850 temperatures have been coming in warmer in the last few model runs and with good mixing on Friday decided to trend towards the warmer models.
104 PM PST Thu Jan 30 2020 Eastern Pacific ridging pattern continues for the next few days keeping the forecast dry and warmer than average.
Slightly cooler low level airmass at tri may result in an mvfr ceiling later tonight. A trough of low pressure brings deteriorating conditions on Friday with mvfr ceilings and visibility in light rain showers impacting the terminals around mid day through the end of the forecast period.
This afternoon, some locations were seeing sprinkles/flurries as an upper trough axis and associated weak PVA moved over the area. Flurries will continue to be possible into this evening, especially over eastern Kansas as the trough axis advances eastward. As this first trough axis moves out tonight, another axis, which could develop into a small closed low, will rotate around a parent wave located to our northeast and work over the area early tomorrow. Precip could be in the form of light snow and freezing drizzle at times, but impacts should be minimal given the limited QPF and resultant light nature to the precip.
Skies should stay mostly cloudy overnight preventing lows from cratering too low though most of the area will still manage to drop slightly below freezing.
Expect VFR conditions through the night however a cold front will push across the TAF sites in the early morning hours. /issued 115 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020/ Flow aloft has veered and dried this afternoon just behind a passing upper level low pressure trough. Situation changes after midnight as a low amplitude upper trough currently sliding southward through the central Rockies moves into the southern Rockies and High Plains. And a cold front moving south in tandem with this forcing will add low level lift, with best frontal forcing just east through the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains where deeper moisture and synoptic lifting will be less favorable. Friday should see the upper trough continue south with mid clouds clearing but breezy, cool conditions otherwise.
21z surface analysis had low just east of KD07 with cold front into northeast WY. Froude numbers favorable for upslope for a couple more hours of the higher Black Hills, also perceived on the KUDX radar loop. Looking at wind potential, latest RAP/HRRR shows 50kt 850mb wind core pushing into CWA behind cold front.
With temperatures falling to around or just below freezing across the area tonight, the drizzle and snow flurries may result in some patchy ice accretion primarily on elevated surfaces into the first half of Friday morning, which could include bridges and overpasses. For the rest of Friday, light southwest winds will provide a slightly warmer day despite continued cloudy conditions.
353 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2020 21z surface analysis had low just east of KD07 with cold front into northeast WY. Froude numbers favorable for upslope for a couple more hours of the higher Black Hills, also perceived on the KUDX radar loop. Looking at wind potential, latest RAP/HRRR shows 50kt 850mb wind core pushing into CWA behind cold front.
238 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2020 21z surface analysis had low just east of KD07 with cold front into northeast WY. Froude numbers favorable for upslope for a couple more hours of the higher Black Hills, also perceived on the KUDX radar loop. Looking at wind potential, latest RAP/HRRR shows 50kt 850mb wind core pushing into CWA behind cold front.