Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1038 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front slowly crossing the area will push off to the southeast later this morning. Thereafter, sprawling high pressure build eastward from the central U. A cold front will continue its slow southeastward progression this morning, exiting the southeastern portion of the CWA by late morning. However, the primary trough axis won't actually make its crossing until this evening. As a result, outside of lingering shower activity east of the Blue Ridge Mountains this morning, additional showers will be possible this afternoon, albeit low end chance. Clearing skies and cool temperatures is in store tonight as the aforementioned trough axis pushes to our east and high pressure over the central U. Lows tonight will drop back into 50s, near 60 in the city centers, with 40s in the higher elevations.
A series of weak upper troughs and low level onshore flow will bring clouds at times, cooler temperatures, and a few showers, mainly to the coast and north interior, over the next several days.
/issued 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ An upper level ridge centered over the 4-corners and dominating the pattern over the western CONUS will move slowly to the southeast during the next couple of days with temperatures beginning to increase today in response to the increased heights. Given amount of progged increase in thicknesses, will run toward the higher end of guidance for highs today and lows tonight. Very dry air aloft and subsidence associated with the upper ridge will keep precip chances to a minimum.
From mid to late afternoon, model guidance has this line of showers and storms gradually weakening with southward extent as Mindy pushes into the western Atlantic and the low-level trough axis/convergence zone shifts east of central FL. Swells from distant Hurricane "Larry" over the Atlantic are still progged to build to 6-8ft late today /tonight, while SW winds increase across the waters (mainly north) as the local pressure gradient tightens between swiftly ENE-moving "Mindy" to the north and the Atlantic ridge over SOFL.
As of 07Z, a cold front is roughly estimated to be pushing through Cullman, Marshall, and DeKalb Counties. Persistent dry/cold air advection throughout the day will drop temperatures anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees compared to yesterday, with most locations in the low 80s (and higher terrain only in the mid 70s).
07Z water vapor shows an upper ridge centered over UT while a closed upper low was located over the southern parts of the Hudson Bay. Surface obs showed high pressure centered over the mid MO river valley with the ridge axis extending south into the Red River valley.
516 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Today's H500 09/00Z hand analysis map shows the center of the Western ridge approaching the 4 Corners region. The center of the ridge will be shunted to the southeast as heights lower upstream by the next trough arriving to the PacNW Coast tonight. There is moisture being advected into the western side of the ridge which will not be a factor for our CWA until late tomorrow afternoon. It still appears the smoke is scattering just enough radiation that highs have generally been on the lower side of guidance. This looks more likely on Friday as the ridge shifts enough to the east the southerly flow should force the main conveyor belt of smoke well to the North and East.
621 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A large ridge over the western part of the country will bring hot and dry conditions to Nebraska through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance shows the large ridge in the west breaking down this weekend with the upper pattern transitioning to a low amplitude progressive regime.
824 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region this morning, with high pressure building into the area and a drier air mass settling in behind last night's frontal passage. In short, it's going to feel like an early taste of autumn outside today as dewpoints fall into the 50s and northerly winds reinforce this cooler, drier air mass. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will range from the upper 70s along the Plateau region of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee to the lower 80s across the valley areas of northern Alabama.
/issued 1132 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning. Pleasant conditions will occur with low humidity and highs in the lower to mid 80s. The skies will continue to be clear as high pressure dominates the weather for the next few days.
Temperatures will warm tomorrow with the south-southwesterly low- level flow and as the upper ridge over the Four Corners area nudges a little bit farther east and mid-level heights increase over Oklahoma and Texas.
High pressure remains centered near CO/NM and with north flow aloft over our area, the dry airmass is expected to continue to be in place through the short-term.
257 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Big high pressure ridge over region with little change in the weather pattern for Friday. The big ridge of high pressure will be suppressed this weekend as next upper trof moves across the Northern Rockies with an associated cold front.
20z SPC mesoanalysis displays MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg across the High Deserts and mountains and 1500 J/kg across the San Diego County Deserts. Strong south-southeasterly winds of 30 to 40 kts are occurring at 500 mb so storms that develop across the mountains will quickly move northwestward into the High Deserts and eastern valleys.
High pressure over the region holds strong keeping quiet conditions in the short term.
159 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A few storms possible today as an upper trough swings through. High pressure for the remainder of the week. Still looking at isolated showers and thunderstorms firing up this afternoon and early evening due to influence of upper trough and daytime heating. Friday looks to be sunny, dry, and cool, under influence of high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft. Upper ridging will move in for the weekend, pushing out the upper troughing previously over the area. High pressure and drier air dominate at the surface allowing for a warm and sunny weekend.
Mid level ridge centered over the Four Corners today will gradually expand over the region in the coming days.
326 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will drift east into IL this evening, and pass east of IL on Friday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
High pressure at the surface with an upper ridge moving in from the west. Tonight, clearing skies and calming winds will help temperatures drop into the low to mid 50s.
Dew points are starting to fall into the mid to upper 50s west and southwest sections of the area but are still in the lower to mid 60s east and northeast. Lower clouds have lingered across northeast Tennessee behind the cold front which is now east of the Appalachians but are now scattering out.
The axis of low pressure which was responsible for precipitation yesterday has shifted east. As a result, cooler air aloft and ConvTs being met at the surface has resulted in development along the trough axis. Showers will have embedded lightning at times, though not much instability lies in the freezing layer. Moisture paucity is noted in the overall atmospheric profile as evident on the 12z PIT RAOB, so CAPE values will remain on the low end, as will lower layer shear given jet displacement East. Convective activity will wane towards dusk as upper-troughing shifts east, and any sfc heating ceases. Friday will be dry and pleasant thanks to high pressure building across the Ohio Valley. Broad high pressure will continue through most of the weekend, with low level warm advection resulting in high pressure several degrees above the climatological norm.
HRRR forecasts improvement from the west Friday as a Pacific upper trough and showers move in.
Yesterday's frontal passage has brought another wave of cooler and drier air, making today a very pleasant and sunny day.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Northeasterly winds will wane later tonight, allowing some radiational cooling to kick in and push low temperatures into the low-to-mid 60s across the Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, surface ridging builds further east across most of the Southeast United States, returning light easterly winds across the area. Similar conditions return for Friday night, with clear skies and light winds allowing more radiational cooling in the low-to-mid 60s.
133 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will move through the region this afternoon. High pressure will then build over the region tonight with drier air. A cold front at 17z was in the SC piedmont moving southeast. Severe threat appears low with instability weak to possibly moderate although deep layer shear may increase to the north late as short wave trough approaches. Temperatures max out in the low to mid 80s. The short term opens with high pressure building into the region bringing drier conditions. Friday will be a stellar day courtesy of sunny to mostly sunny skies, lower dewpoints, and highs in the lower to mid eighties.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ A mild and beautiful day it is today! Following yesterday's cold front passage, temperatures are in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the 40s across most of the region. While not exactly autumn-like, the lower humidity is certainly appreciated. Friday will be slightly warmer with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s, but low humidity will keep it fairly pleasant overall. /Issued 239 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ /Friday Onward/ Above normal temperatures will prevail heading into the upcoming weekend as a dominant upper ridge spreads subsidence overhead.
313 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Mid/upper level ridging will gradually expand east across the mid MS and lower OH River Valleys as we go through the short term period.
338 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A surface cold front will exit eastern North Carolina this evening.
Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis places a 596 dm upper level ridge over the Four Corners region, and a longwave trough axis extending from the eastern Great Lakes south- southwestward into Dixie Alley. At the surface, weak high pressure will slide eastward through Friday as lee troughing deepens from the northern plains south to eastern CO, allowing S/SSW winds to resume over the central plains. Overnight will remain quiet as temperatures drop into the low to mid 60s. Friday will be more of the same as southwest KS remains under the influence of the strong upper ridge to the west, and temperatures will be warmer still with afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
/Issued 251 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ Looking at GOES-16 water vapor, there is an area of mid to upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners Region. Downstream is an area of low pressure sitting over the Hudson Bay area with an associated positively tilted trough extending into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. With the high pressure sitting over the Four Corners flow aloft is mostly out of the north over the FA. The high is positioned so that the flow will be coming from northern CA where wildfires remain ongoing. With the high building over the area more tomorrow highs are looking to be in the upper 90s to lower triple digits for Friday.
A cold front continues to move south across the marine area early this afternoon. In the wake of the front, a slightly cooler and much drier airmass continues to flow into the area. There is a very isolated risk for a shower near the coast early this afternoon before the drier air moves in, however the higher rain chances will remain well offshore. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid and upper 80s near the coast. The overnight passage of a surface cold front has brought light to moderate northwest winds and clearing skies to all terminals. Expect a slight northerly shift in winds over the next 24 hours as high pressure over the central CONUS slides eastward.
1124 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Current surface map places weak high across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota with trof across eastern Montana/Wyoming. Upper level ridge across the Rockies shifts into the plains today and Friday bringing a couple of warm/dry days with critical fire weather conditions. The trof/dry line shifts into western South Dakota this afternoon with some breezy west/northwest winds. Dry cold front slides through Friday night.
Timing is still on track for Friday evening and overnight having the highest probability for widespread showers.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Upper level pattern at 500mb is more amplified, with ridging over the western half of the CONUS and troughing in the east. The cooler and drier air associated with this trough is continuing to filter into the region behind a cold front that has passed through the area overnight. Todays temperatures will only make it into the 80s, with highs in the east in the low to mid 80s at the max heat of day. Dewpoints are also much lower, in the low 60s/upper 50s.
With the upper level ridge expected to continue to the west during the day Friday, expect the smoke to stream through the area tomorrow as well. The ridge drifts a little to the east and would expect temperatures to be a little warmer. Did lower temperatures a little bit, but would not be completely surprised if temperatures were a few degrees cooler than forecast.
/Issued 1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ /Through Friday/ A mild and beautiful day it is today! Following yesterday's cold front passage, temperatures are in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the 40s across most of the region. While not exactly autumn-like, the lower humidity is certainly appreciated. Friday will be slightly warmer with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s, but low humidity will keep it fairly pleasant overall. /NEW/ /Friday Night through Thursday/ Mid level ridging will continue to dominate the Western U.
1132 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning. Pleasant conditions will occur with low humidity and highs in the lower to mid 80s. The skies will continue to be clear as high pressure dominates the weather for the next few days.
Soundings are pretty dry so only expecting some cloud cover at best with the trough. Pleasant conditions will continue through tomorrow as the high pressure over us slowly tracks to the southeast. As the high shifts southeast, southerly winds will develop helping to bring some warmer temperatures. Highs will be a few degrees warmer Friday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
358 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will push offshore tonight. Much drier air then moves in with high pressure, creating a pleasant weekend.
132 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Cooler temperatures are expected today with afternoon high temperatures in the 70s and low humidity.
Quiet weather until Friday night when a cold front arrives.
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A large ridge over the western part of the country will bring hot and dry conditions to Nebraska through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance shows the large ridge in the west breaking down this weekend with the upper pattern transitioning to a low amplitude progressive regime.
155 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Warmer air will build into the region tonight into Friday as the upper level ridge aloft shifts east. Along with the warmer temperatures will come additional smoke so skies will likely be a bit hazy again on Friday. Lows tonight a bit milder than this morning, mainly in the 50s while highs on Friday will be warmer with 90s west of Interstate 29 and 80s elsewhere.
Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region this morning, with high pressure building into the area and a drier air mass settling in behind last night's frontal passage. In short, it's going to feel like an early taste of autumn outside today as dewpoints fall into the 50s and northerly winds reinforce this cooler, drier air mass. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will range from the upper 70s along the Plateau region of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee to the lower 80s across the valley areas of northern Alabama.
330 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will move slowly southeast through central North Carolina today. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region tonight through the weekend. The surface cold front has pushed through most of central NC. Skies should clear from west to east tonight owing to high pressure settling into the Tennesse Valley.
(Friday night through next Thursday) Friday night through the weekend, the upper level ridge will remain in control of our weather.
/Issued 1012 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ Southerly winds have returned to parts of the region as high pressure at the surface continues to slide east. Surface and mid level high pressures are setting the stage for VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period with clear skies and light winds expected. Afternoon readings will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with upper 80s to lower 90s in store. The upper high currently across the 4-corners region will shift east through the weekend, with several days of well-above normal temperatures expected.
A weak cold front is slowly pushing southward across central portions of GA. The cold front will continue to push slowly south of the CWA this evening and overnight. High pressure will build in from the north. The high center will shift east to across the Middle Atlantic by tomorrow.
A cold front continues to move south across the marine area this afternoon. In the wake of the front, a slightly cooler and much drier airmass will continue to flow into the area. There is a very isolated risk for a shower near the coast early this afternoon before the drier air moves in, however the higher rain chances will remain well offshore. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid and upper 80s near the coast.
The axis of low pressure which was responsible for precipitation yesterday has shifted east. Moisture paucity is noted in the overall atmospheric profile as evident on the 12z PIT RAOB, so CAPE values will remain on the low end, as will lower layer shear given jet displacement East. Convective activity will wane towards dusk as upper-troughing shifts east, and any sfc heating ceases. Friday will be dry and pleasant thanks to high pressure building across the Ohio Valley. Broad high pressure will continue through most of the weekend, with low level warm advection resulting in high pressure several degrees above the climatological norm.
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 An upper level ridge located over the Rockies will begin to move into the Central Plains today and influence our weather.
236 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A ridge will continue to build aloft into Friday. Temperatures will soar back into the 80s and 90s under the ridge with warmest conditions along and west of the Missouri River. However, given weak high pressure at the sfc, winds are expected to be fairly light with an occasional gust to around 20 mph. Winds will increase a bit closer to 0z as low pressure near the Black Hills allows for breezier winds as far east as the Missouri Valley.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Northerly winds have gusted up to 20 mph or so at times this afternoon bringing drier and cooler air into the area. After starting the day in the 50s, temperatures will climb into the low 80s.
Further aloft, troughing will be in place from the Midwest and into the Appalachians with upper ridging over the Four Corners.
The remainder of the CWA is experiencing clear skies with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s. Friday brings much warmer temperatures into the area as afternoon highs climb quickly into the middle 80s, with upper 80s possible west of the Red River.
132 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will move slowly southeast through central North Carolina today. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region tonight through the weekend. Good moisture transport and isentropic lift ahead of the advancing cold front, along with some tropical moisture from tropical depression Mindy, should allow precipitation to fill in for the remainder of the morning to afternoon hours, especially along/east of US-1. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build in from the Midwest. High pressure will move across the area this weekend as a moisture starved mid/upper level s/w trough cross the area.
129 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A few storms possible today as an upper trough swings through. High pressure for the remainder of the week. Still looking at isolated showers and thunderstorms firing up this afternoon and early evening due to influence of upper trough and daytime heating. Friday looks to be sunny, dry, and cool, under influence of high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft. The mid/upper level flow flattens out this period, as a trough over the eastern U. moves east, and the ridge over the western U. fades into the flat subtropical ridge.
400 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Forecast challenge is temperatures tomorrow as the upper ridge strengthens and builds east then heights fall with increasing zonal flow aloft into the extended. The ensemble continues to show the upper ridge will break down over the weekend, then increasing zonal flow aloft.
1237 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 (Today and tonight) The cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau last night has settled in across the Hill Country. In it's wake, high pressure has carried a drier airmass into west central Texas. At the upper levels, a strong 500mb ridge across the Great Basin should start to nose it's way southeastward into Texas. This should allow high temperatures to reach nicely into the low to mid 90s today under clear to partly cloudy skies.
451 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A few storms possible today as an upper trough swings through. High pressure for the remainder of the week. Still looking at isolated showers and thunderstorms firing up this afternoon and early evening due to influence of upper trough and daytime heating. Friday looks to be sunny, dry, and cool, under influence of high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft. Upper ridging will move in for the weekend, pushing out the upper troughing previously over the area. High pressure and drier air dominate at the surface allowing for a warm and sunny weekend.
1012 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Southerly winds have returned to parts of the region as high pressure at the surface continues to slide east. Surface and mid level high pressures are setting the stage for VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period with clear skies and light winds expected. Afternoon readings will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with upper 80s to lower 90s in store. The upper high currently across the 4-corners region will shift east through the weekend, with several days of well-above normal temperatures expected.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Latest IR water vapor imagery shows a prominent 500 hpa ridge centered over the 4 Corners region with a large area of subsidence keeping skies clear over much of the southwestern CONUS. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are currently under the influence of this anomalously strong upper ridge. The ridge will gradually shift further ewd, centering over northern NM by tomorrow afternoon. In response, the low level thermal ridge and thicknesses aloft will increase over the forecast region.
Yesterday's frontal passage has brought another wave of cooler and drier air, making today a very pleasant and sunny day. Other than some diurnally driven scattered cumulus fields at times, ridging influences surface/aloft to provide for VFR/SKC conditions through 10/18Z.
204 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan, with trough dropping down into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western CONUS, with high near the four corners area. On Friday, upper ridge meanders easterly bringing another toasty day to the area. With the ridge moving east, some smoke moves into our area. Late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night a cold front will push through the area.