Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
VFR CATEGORIES WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO INDUCE THE STRONGER WINDS. /ISSUED 254 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016/ UPPER TROF THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY MOVED OFFSHORE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. RIDGE IS FCST TO FLATTEN FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION BUT STALL IN THE ABSENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH. AS THE TROF LIFTS INTO ERN CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR EAST OVER CHATTANOOGA, WITH E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMP TRENDS ARE NEAR/JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR HINDRANCE AT THIS POINT. THE PROB FOR SOME BRIEF/PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 6 AM OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY STATES CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD. WEAK UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE SE REGION LATER TODAY AND INTO FRI.
A WARMER H85 LEVEL WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS. THE MOD TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX AND ALONG THE ROCKIES. THE WARM/DRY CONDITONS ARE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E ACROSS TX.
1135 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK REMAINS. TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THURSDAY OVER THE SNOW PACK.
1153 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND TIMING OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. FOCUS TURNS TO THE INCOMING TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST OVERNIGHT. BY 3 -6 HOURS WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z FRI. THE SYSTEM DOES LOOK QUITE STRONG AND HIRES MODELS DO INDICATE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE 06Z-12Z FRI TIME FRAME OVER CENTRAL MN. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPONSOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1245 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY. COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
340 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
246 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY. WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
1235 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE AREA LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
1227 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 A COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING IS USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TOMORROW MORNING.
1152 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1035 MILLIBARS) BLANKETING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. TROUGHING WAS PROGRESSING OFF THE U. WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION STRENGTHENS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE U. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER OUR WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
139 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016 COOLER TODAY WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES.
AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN CHOUTEAU AND HILL COUNTIES BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN VERIFICATION IS LOW TO MODERATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGHER PASSES ALONG THE CASCADES, CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS WHERE ROADS ARE SNOW COVERED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT, BUT MODERATE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
1227 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
320 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 Windy conditions will continue this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, helping keep the boundary layer mixed and holding temperatures above even our normal highs in the 50s overnight.
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
1126 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1029 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR EAST OVER CHATTANOOGA, WITH E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. 12 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A VERY DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WAS ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWER-MID 20S. 18/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD ADJACENT THE NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A BROAD RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY FROM TUCSON WWD WILL BE ABOUT 5-8 DEGS COOLER VERSUS WED. AND HIGH TEMPS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS COOLER VERSUS WED.
106 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING A THREAT OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
345 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRUGGLED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WITH 60+ KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEHIND THE TROUGH. AND POSSIBLY EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EITHER SHOWERS THIS EVENING OR FOR GRADIENT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
317 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RH values have not recovered much yet tonight across the western CWA and we are expecting humidity to drop into the lower to middle 30 percent range during the afternoon. Plenty of sunshine is expected today and with the strong low level warm advection and upper ridge moving into the area, will likely see afternoon highs from the mid 60s east to mid 70s west.
1246 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN CHOUTEAU AND HILL COUNTIES BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN VERIFICATION IS LOW TO MODERATE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO WY. THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO KOTH BETWEEN 2-3Z.
THIS IS ALSO AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND BETTER 0-1KM SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE MOIST IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIE EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MN IN THE MORNING.
1041 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE EAST OF THIS AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FLATTER RIDGE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
515 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE DAY. WITH 850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
804 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SEND A TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH IS STILL DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE ANY INFLUENCE IN KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
1021 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE AND GENERALLY DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT WEST. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOW RH VALUES ON SUNDAY. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE NOTED.
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW END POPS. BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE FROM PENSACOLA TO NEAR PERRY. THE FORMER HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF WHILE LATTER IS DEVELOPED FROM DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAS NOW WEAKENED RAPIDLY. DUE TO THE LOW PRES FEATURE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ A DRY AIRMASS HAS FILTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON.
1022 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW END POPS. BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR ONE INCH TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK. WEAK RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW.
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
952 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 THE REGION REMAINS UNDER SUBSIDENT AIR ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
545 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE EAST OF THIS AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FLATTER RIDGE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL FINALLY PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING, AFTER WHICH TIME WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO WARMER NIGHTTIME LOWS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SASK AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT SUNDAY. AIR MASS QUITE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR IN THE UPPER 60S IN SOME PLACES. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA BUT AN EAST WIND WILL ADVECT IN COOLER AIR FROM OUR EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY AS MAY SEEM SOME LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS INLAND AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER. /ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ A DRY AIRMASS HAS FILTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON.
MOST LOCATIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER TOMORROW AS WE SWITCH TO AN EASTERLY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING ALOFT STAYS IN CONTROL. AND IN FACT WE LEANED ON THE WARMER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLENDS TO BUILD THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PATTERN AND RECENT VERIFICATION. WE EVEN REMOVED THE MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 12 UTC HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT.
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ THE CENTER OF AN ENLONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TX RESULTING IN NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE LAST 24 HRS IS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A DRY AND STABLE PATTERN.
AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS DUE MAINLY TO VERY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HOLDING FIRM AND PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM FULLY DEVELOPING. SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS BRING A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MONSOON MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. THE TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS 10 TO 12 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY/S HIGHS. MODELS ARE HOLDING QPF AND POPS DOWN MONDAY POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY.
MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 94 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 91 66 91 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 88 63 87 / 0 10 10 10.
945 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 STEADY S/SW FLOW OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL TROF OVER THE BIG BEND/NE GOMEX INTERACTS WITH THE ATLC RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE TROF. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A SIG AMNT OF MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE ERN GOMEX ASSOCD WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. A FRONTAL TROF OVER THE NE GOMEX WILL COMBINE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC.
UPPER LEVEL TOUGHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE EAST GULF AND FL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE STRUNG OUT FROM THE NORTH AND NE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH GA/NORTH FL AREA. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP ROBUST WINDS ON THE GULF.
822 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
929 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
905 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL WAVER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN VICINITY OF THE NC COAST AS IT IS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U. WHILE DOMINATE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U. AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 90S. WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR TO HAVE FAILED WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM NE SD INTO WRN MN THIS EVENING AFTER A COUPLE OF BRIEF STORMS TRIED TO SUSTAIN OVER NE SD. FOCUS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT S/W TROF THAT IS DRIVING THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF WINNIPEG TO JUST NORTH OF MINOT ND AS OF 830 PM. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
444 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
433 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DRY WESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. AND MARINE SURGES OF COOLER AIR WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME OF THE WIND EXPOSED RIDGES IN OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAVE PUSHED CLOUDS ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. PROGS SHOW THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPS WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT THE 850 BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS OF SHOWERS.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AND BRIEFLY PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY. AND BRIEFLY PUSH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH.