Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
940 AM PST SUN JAN 10 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA.
332 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016 (Tonight and Monday) A potent upper-level trough is moving east across northern Mexico this afternoon per water vapor imagery. The thermal profile will be above freezing overnight, but forecast wet-bulb temperatures suggest a saturated, sub-freezing column is likely by sunrise.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PERSIST BENEATH THE INVERSION BUT REMAIN CLEAR ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE FALLING FROM THE LOW CLOUDS.
COOL AND DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE RGV.
1044 AM PST SUN JAN 10 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA.
ALL THIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL PASS THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM TUCSON NE.
327 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
BATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHILE SOME SATURATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE IN THE LOW TO MID LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. ONLY A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION RANGE HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN FACT THE LOWEST READINGS OF THE SEASON MIGHT BE REACHED IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
OUR WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT/BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 15-20MPH. JMS RECENT RADAR AND WEB CAMS INDICATED FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY AND FAR NE AL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL LIFT OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TRENDS OVER SE AR WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SE.
245 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES CLEAR OF ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE REACHED THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST TODAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC.
257 PM MDT THU MAR 31 2016 GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ROUGHLY THRU SAN ANTONIO. GOOD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mean troughing was over the northern and Central Plains per water vapor imagery. A few main waves were identified in this trough. Cold air advection ramps up tonight as a second cold front pushes in from the second wave. Weakening cold air advection and the mixing brings highs a few to several degrees cooler than today. Secondary upper trough axis lifts over the central plains into the Midwest regions by Friday evening. Operational guidance shows weak lift behind the cold front during the early evening period with the 12Z ECMWF developing light qpf along the trough axis.
426 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY THEN OPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO ADD LIFT AND INCREASING POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER-LEVELS FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS LOOK TO BE JUST LIGHT ENOUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO AN AFTN SEABREEZE. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
602 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO INDIANA WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO PUSH S ACROSS TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE FRI MRNG WITH MODERATE NERLY SFC WINDS DVLPNG AFTER FROPA.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY COOL AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS MORE STABLE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
125 PM MST THU MAR 31 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AND EVEN SOME VIRGA/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AS MOISTURE IS WRAPPED AROUND A COLD UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SE AZ. BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW. A DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS STILL ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
136 PM PDT THU MAR 31 2016 WARMER. A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE CONTINUED WARMING.
313 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 The departure of the cold front early this evening will signal the end of shower and thunderstorm chances in east central and southeast Illinois by 9 pm.
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
401 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AND EVEN SOME VIRGA/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AS MOISTURE IS WRAPPED AROUND A COLD UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SE AZ. BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW. A DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS STILL ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the region tonight and tomorrow, bringing more sun and warmer conditions.
235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday's system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon.
132 PM MDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THERE ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT OR BELOW 700MB IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING FROM THE NORTHERN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BUT WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ROTATING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE INITIAL STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
313 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 The initial round of thunderstorms touched off by a ripple of energy ahead of the cold front was pushing east of the forecast area as of mid afternoon. The focus then turns to the broken line of thunderstorms developing along and just ahead of the cold front across south central and southwest Illinois. Mesoscale models tend to develop this line further south as the cold front progresses east across the area. RAP13 forecast soundings also show a layer of relatively warmer air in the 900-800 mb layer. In the wake of the cold front, overall cyclonic flow aloft will persist through late week.
BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE. ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL LIFT OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TRENDS OVER SE AR WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SE.
A H5 S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA WITH A SURFACE FRONT ALSO STALLING ACROSS THE CRP/EWX CWA LINES.
WHEN A RISK FOR -TSRA/VCTS WILL RETURN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
2-3 MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO.
THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP-AROUND WILL CROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
DEWPOINTS STARTED OUT IN THE LOWER 50S BUT OBS ARE CURRENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. HIGH RES MODELS AGREE WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH PRIMARY TAF SITES ALTHOUGH FLIGHT CONDS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW.
300 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Cold front that moved through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas last night and this morning has now shift into Central Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures across the CWA this afternoon were running slightly cooler than yesterday with 60s to low 70s common. slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday afternoon with breezy northwesterly winds. a weak upper low. some light precip could be possible mainly south of the Red River Valley and closer to the upper low over Texas.
341 PM PDT THU MAR 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWER 80S FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
321 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SENDING A VERY MILD AIR MASS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING THE STRONG WIND TO MIX TO THE SFC, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY NIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA.
332 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO INDIANA WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS HELPED USHER IN MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH WIND FETCH. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A LAGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO/SOUTH AZ THAT WILL SHIFT OVER WEST AND THEN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. GIVEN THE POOR EVOLUTION OF THE NAM SOUNDINGS YESTERDAY WITH THE GFS DEPICTING THE CAP MORE PROPERLY, WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW IN THE GFS/EC CAMP. THE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN A REINFORCING SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH.
255 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO MAKE IT'S WAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (WHILE STILL PRETTY LOW) ARE FOR THE WESTERN ROW OF PANHANDLE COUNTIES. ALL PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS LIQUID RAIN THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL HELP KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.
345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA. WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT STILL BACK THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS AT 18Z. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TAKING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH IT.
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. CLEARING WEST TO EAST MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY. ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
346 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK. LONGER TERM CHANGES COULD PLAY ON THE FORM OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN PACIFIC OFF COAST OF BAJA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP OVER CENTRAL ND HAS BEEN CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER OUR AREA IT HAS BEEN STAYING MOSTLY RAIN. DENOFF WEBCAM IN CNTRL ND SHOWS A COATING OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER RETURNS. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TROUGH COMBINED WITH ENOUGH SFC HEATING WITH HIGHS 45-50 SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway.
WITH AN ELONGATED TROF EXTENDING SW TOWARD AZ. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FM KLIT TOWARD KIAH. THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT FROM CNTL LA TOWARD THE ACADIANA REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE FCST MAINLY ACRS THE SRN/SERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
Thereafter VFR conditions will prevail with sustained northwesterly winds overnight as a reinforcing cold front passes. Cold front has recently cleared western AR and far SE OK with building high pressure allowing for tranquil conditions.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING CAUSING A NORTH WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PAC COAST WILL FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
1226 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE REMAINING SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
1230 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ALL TAF SITES CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED. STALLEY THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE ZONES AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
1238 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE REMAINING SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE IS KEEPING WEATHER WARM AND DRY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN SONORA WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND INTO TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS.
However, a strong cold front will move south through the region Friday morning, bringing MVFR ceilings to all area sites, and perhaps IFR conditions and precipitation to KHOB, KINK and KMAF. /issued 343 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ Upper pattern has a trough this morning extending from the Upper Midwest back to AZ. This trough will swing east bringing a chance of rain to the region. After it passes an upper ridge will build in as the weather warms. However a strong cold front will blow into the area Friday. believe that is overdone so will stay closer to warmer MAV guidance in the 50s.
Dry Weather with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns through this A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau.
1000 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STARTS TO WEAKEN.
517 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. VERY STEEP INVERSION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHARP TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RIDGE TOPS AND/OR MID-SLOPE OF MOUNTAINS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 66 50 66 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 65 47 64 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 64 50 64 / 0 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 65 43 63 / 10 0 10 10.
447 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING LINE HELD IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR A WHILE. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO HARPER COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH THE TRANSITION BEGINNING TO FREEZING RAIN. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH THE WEATHER GRIDS AND USED A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WE ARE FORECASTING THE MIX OR TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THESE COUNTIES TOMORROW. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND THE NATURE OF THE RAIN SO FAR.
259 PM PST THU NOV 26 2015 COLD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
938 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WHILE A STRONG CDFNT EXTENDED ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THE TAFS MAY BE TOO EARLY AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. AN UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TO ITS NW WAS BUILDING EASTWARD. THE POSITION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON NOW.
ABOUT A THIRD INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND HIGHS THERE WERE MILD /38-46F/ FOR GOOD EVAPORTAION.
703 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON INTO FRIDAY WITH UNUSUALLY MILD AIR.
836 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
327 PM PST THU NOV 26 2015 Chilly temperatures and clear skies are expected through at least Friday as strong high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR BENIGN WEATHER WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC. WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER VIA AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DECREASES IN INTENSITY.
630 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING.
MVFR/VFR cigs will gradually become IFR behind cold front, which is about to pass through KBVO at this time. The NAM and GEM have both trneded slightly warmer in the northwest part of the forecast area which lessens the ice potential somewhat, but it will still be a close call there.
RIPPLES OF ENERGY RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO ENABLE SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.