Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low amplitude upper level disturbance gliding by to our north will provide a northerly winds shift late tonight, followed by weak surface ridging on Friday. After another chilly night tonight /though not as cold as this morning/, temperatures will still rise into the lower to middle 50s for much of the CWA Friday afternoon.
451 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 An area of low pressure is progressing east this afternoon based on the afternoon surface analysis. An upper level trough axis is set up across the ARKLATEX region. We remain more or less in a dry slot ahead of the previously mentioned upper level trough axis. first one is it has been relatively warm heading into the event that would lessen any initial accumulations, and the second is where the higher precipitation amounts setup is in question. Eventually moisture will dry up some as weak nosing of high pressure progresses north.
210 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the eastern Dakotas, with cold front sliding south into the area.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the H5 trough for snow flurries or occasional light snow but I am not expecting any accumulations. As the minor H5 trough axis passes over eastern KS by 12Z the ascent ahead of the upper trough axis will shift southeast into MO and the mid and lower MS River Valley bringing an end to the light snow or flurries. Highs will only reach the lower 30s along the NE border with upper 30s along the southern counties of the CWA.
312 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Wx map shows continued tight pressure gradient between the exiting low pressure to the east and relatively higher pressure over TX. Weak but cold high pressure will settle over the region overnight with winds diminishing after sunset this evening, with the mid to upper level trough from Canada to the Gulf over the region.
Trough axis finally exiting eastward at midday, with mainly a clear sky across SW KS. Tonight will be much milder than the last two nights, despite a weak cold front traversing SW KS and weak cold advection at 850 mb. Northwesterly upper flow will persist into the weekend in the wake of a longwave upper trough over the eastern CONUS.
311 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 The early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a deep upper trough axis over the Eastern Great Plains, with upper ridges positioned off the West and East Coasts. Lowest wind chills will be confined to the highest elevations, generally -10 to -20 degrees.
High pressure aloft locked in over the eastern Pacific will keep Utah under a north to northwest flow aloft through the end of the week.
A weak back door cold front will drop south through the eastern plains tonight. Some light snow shower activity and flurries are possible over the northern mountains later this afternoon and evening, with up to 4" of new snow accumulation across the highest peaks of the southern Sangres. For Friday, temperatures warm above normal, with the exception of the northeast corner of the state, where a backdoor cold front will limit WAA. Another Wind Advisory is a possibility for Friday, with the highest confidence being around the Clines Corners region.
347 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Satellite imagery this morning depicts a deep trough over the Plains pulling moisture into the area. Lows tonight will generally be below freezing for most of the Mid-South.
313 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Water Vapor and IR satellite clearly show an abnormally deep long wave trough over the central CONUS extending down into Mexico. Our area falls right into the trough axis with a clearing of moisture and cloud cover from the region.
731 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 An approaching strong cold front will move through the forecast area this evening.
/Issued 241 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ The longwave trough that was overhead early this morning has pushed east of the Panhandles this afternoon, leaving us in northwest flow aloft. Low pressure at the surface level continues swinging eastward through the Plains and will maintain the northerly flow as well.
Cool high pressure will build late today and persist through the weekend. Diminishing winds then into Fri night as the pressure gradient relaxes, also allowing temps to drop into the low-mid 30s.
Now that the low clouds have departed, no changes to previous TAF thinking with basically just a wind forecast this go around. /issued 312 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/ Wx map shows continued tight pressure gradient between the exiting low pressure to the east and relatively higher pressure over TX. Weak but cold high pressure will settle over the region overnight with winds diminishing after sunset this evening, with the mid to upper level trough from Canada to the Gulf over the region.
Expect the highest snow totals in these areas, but light snow or flurries remain possible across the region through early Friday.
1051 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 A cold front will move through this evening, followed by high pressure.
In central MO, temperatures will be a little warmer, so expect some light rain to mix in with the snow. High pressure moves in behind the front tonight, mostly clearing skies and dropping temperatures down tonight to the teens up north and low 20s down south.
Main upper trof axis moving eastward across the MS River Valley and north central Gulf states this morning will continue to shift east and lift northward through early Sat with weak mid level forcing still embedded within the base of the departing trof combined with widespread layer lift west of a departing cold front which is now well east of the forecast area. Highs today will climb to the mid 50s for most locations in the forecast area followed by lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most inland areas and the lower to mid 40s along the immediate coast.
1123 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 An upper level trough is currently moving across the area. Lows tonight will drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s. Highs on Friday will warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
1250 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Rain will transition to snow overnight as low pressure strengthens and lifts northeastward toward New England.
A 135-140kt 300mb jet associated with the trough will rotate across the Gulf coast states toward the southern Appalachians overnight placing the area under the favored left exit region of the jet. Upper level trough swinging through the area will produce scattered rain showers at CHA and TYS and some snow at TRI. Winds will continue to increase from the west as we go through the morning hours due to the tightening pressure gradient from the trough swinging through. Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 32 50 31 58 / 30 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 31 46 29 55 / 50 10 40 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 30 46 28 55 / 50 10 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 27 42 28 51 / 70 30 40 30 10 TN.
The airmass is getting colder and you can't rule out some small accumulations, most so at the higher elevations and probably most likely on grassy surfaces and not so much the roads.
1134 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 The upper level trough has shifted through and pushed the low ceilings out of the area.
Cool high pressure will build late today and persist through the weekend. Max-T to occur in many spots this morning, as cold air advection works in, leveling off in afternoon, then dipping sharply tonight with widespread 30s for min-T, near to below freezing well inland.
956 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Sunny skies continue under surface ridging this afternoon, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Any light snow should end Friday night, as weak ridging builds in.
936 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 With the clouds moving out a little earlier than expected and temperatures currently right around or below freezing, we decided to lower tonight's low temperatures a few degrees.
High pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific will keep Utah under a moist northwest flow through Friday. A cold upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest Friday night, then settle into The Great Basin with some rain and snow and colder temperatures this weekend.
1129 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 Water Vapor and IR satellite clearly show an abnormally deep long wave trough over the central CONUS extending down into Mexico. Our area falls right into the trough axis with a clearing of moisture and cloud cover from the region.
1047 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 (This evening through Friday) The large trough that brought heavy snowfall to the region yesterday continues to move eastward this afternoon. Temperatures have remained 10 to 15 degrees cooler over the snowpack compared to areas that received little to no appreciable snow. The temperature difference tonight will not be quite as substantial, but still expect portions of western north Texas northeastward to central Oklahoma will see lows 5-10 degrees cooler than other parts of the area.
The cold frontal boundary in a NW to SE orientation has pushed more west this evening, allowing temperatures within the cold airmass to be a bit colder than models were suggesting. Northwest flow is the predominant feature over the area between a trough whose axis is near the Mississippi River and a ridge off the West Coast.
101 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Rain chances will continue to diminish early this morning as a cold front shifts east of the area. Dry high pressure will build into the region behind the front today. Regional radar early this morning shows the bulk of the rainfall has pushed east of the area, however there are still scattered showers moving into the western CSRA along the cold front. The cold front will continue to push eastward through the area early this morning with showers diminishing before daybreak. Low pressure will continue to deepen as it lifts across the Northeastern CONUS today resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area. It will be much cooler today than the past several days with cold air advection behind the front.
Winds have switched to the northwest as a weak cold front moved through and should stay mainly out of the northwest at 15-25 mph through the rest of the day.
A moist northwest flow aloft will continue to deliver widespread precipitation to central Idaho and the higher elevations of Baker County through Friday, although the precipitation will start to diminish Friday afternoon.
Winds have switched to the northwest as a weak cold front moved through and should stay mainly out of the northwest at 15-25 mph through the rest of the day. Northwesterly upper flow will persist into the weekend in the wake of a longwave upper trough over the eastern CONUS.
In some areas, temperatures have risen above freezing allowing snow to melt, causing wet and slushy surfaces. The high pops were pushed out until after 6Z for portions of the southwest and were raised for Judith Basin and western Fergus Counties. Abundant moisture spills into the area over the leading edge of a ridge located off the U. Along the eastern periphery of this moisture, sufficient short wave radiation is reaching the Earth's surface to allow for thursday's high temperatures to push into the low 40s in some areas of central Montana. The valleys and plains of south central and southwest Montana are experiencing mainly light snowfall where temperatures are below freezing, and rainfall in those areas where temperatures have warmed above 32F.
343 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Rain chances will continue to diminish early this morning as a cold front shifts east of the area. Dry high pressure will build into the region behind the front today. Scattered showers will move out of the western CSRA and Midlands just ahead of the surface cold front this morning. Low pressure will continue to deepen as it lifts across the Northeastern CONUS today resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area. It will be much cooler today than the past several days with cold air advection behind the front.
320 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Snow is expected today with crossing low pressure.
1034 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the eastern Dakotas, with cold front sliding south into the area.
This upper trough axis will track pretty fast east through the morning and HR data showing snowfall really waning off. Sat morning we will be subfreezing. ECM favors bringing a warm front just north of area Wed night, followed by a cold front on Thu.
South to southwest winds average 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts in the low 30s. The KBYX radar detects winds near 40 mph at 1 kft, so not all the wind force is transferring to the ground, likely due to the cooler waters of Hawk Channel. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s with temperatures in the upper 70s. From synopsis, a cold front will track across the Gulf of Mexico overnight then pass through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys Friday morning. High pressure will slide east into the western North Atlantic this weekend with a return to moderate easterly breezes.
CAA behind the wave looks to be weak today, so clearing skies this afternoon will allow highs to be in the low 40s in the southern counties of the CWA with highs in the lower 30s near the NE border. Ahead of a deepening lee trough, southerly winds increase through the day especially across central KS, enhancing WAA.
The precipitation this afternoon and early this evening may begin as liquid rain until the freezing level drops due to evaporative cooling resulting in a changeover to snow.
With air temps near freezing and road temps several degrees above freezing, slick spots will remain confined to elevates surfaces such as bridges.
707 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Last night's cold front and associated showers/storms is now well east and southeast of the area and will continue to move away. a mid level trough swings across the eastern states with an embedded short wave trough producing some slowly clearing cloudiness. High pressure building into the Gulf will maintain winds in the small craft advisory range.
Saturday looks to be the best day of the weekend, windy, but with that wind comes warmer temps. As the upper pattern aloft transitions from northwesterly to zonal, lee troughing will develop and deepen during the day Saturday. A disturbance moving southeast across the northern Rockies will bring a surface cold front through the region Saturday night, which will kick those warmer temperatures back out.
This storm is expected to bring strong winds, increasing chances for rain and snow and much cooler temperatures.
Given that snow is light/intermittent, for example -- Burlington reported snow for only 10 minutes (5:00-5:10 pm MST) with visibilities no lower than 2-3 miles -- and that temperatures are in the lower 30s, expect little in the way of accumulation. Today, 500 mb RAP analysis and water vapor imagery showed a large upper trough exiting the region to the east across the center of the CONUS. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than previous nights, as our cold air mass continues to shift east, mixing keeps winds up slightly, and cloud cover remains in place. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler behind a weak cold front, ranging in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Added low chances for light snow mainly along and north of the highway 2 corridor late tonight into Saturday to account for this.
427 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 A large upper trough is over most of the country with West Texas and southeast New Mexico on the backside of the trough. The upper trough will move eastward and weaken on Saturday with the CWA under westerly flow aloft.
Without much sunshine and a little snow on the ground, temperatures will only climb into the low and mid 30s today. Snowfall continues across Middle Tennessee this morning as a series of weak upper troughs swings across the region.
126 AM PST Fri Feb 7 2020 Slightly warmer today and tomorrow as high pressure shifts over Central California.
Lows tonight should fall into the 50s to the lower 60s at the beaches, with increasing clouds after midnight. Another warm day is expected on Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Quick on the heels of the last system, a cold front and upper level trough will drop down from the north and be the focus for more snow starting Saturday evening.
233 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2020 Amplified flow pattern over the CONUS with a deep upper trough axis centered from the northern Great lakes south into the southeastern US. At the surface, a cold front has slowly moved southeastward and is currently located from eastern MT through western SD into south-central SD.
Warmer west under the cloud blanket where temperatures are currently sitting in the single digits above. Below normal highs central (low/mid teens) and east (lower single digits above) along to east of the front in the cold sector, and much warmer across the far west in the warm sector with afternoon temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30F.
400 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2020 Amplified flow pattern over the CONUS with a deep upper trough axis centered from the northern Great lakes south into the southeastern US. At the surface, a cold front has slowly moved southeastward and is currently located from eastern MT through western SD into south-central SD.
Expect mostly cloudy skies throughout much of Friday keeping temperatures on the cooler side. High temperatures will range from the low 40s in northern Nebraska to the low 50s along and south of I-80. A weak front will move through the High Plains on Saturday night bringing and end to the warm temperatures.
448 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 A strong cold front is located from southwest Florida, southwestward to the waters in and around Dry Tortugas and the Marquesas Keys, equatorward to the western tip of Cuba early this morning. This cold front is preceded and accompanied by a swath of showers with an occasional lightning storm. A potent, deep full latitude trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes equatorward to the southern Gulf of Mexico will lift northward over the next couple of days. But before then, a strong cold front in the extreme Southeast Gulf of mexico, extending from Southwest Florida to the western tip of Cuba early this morning will plow eastward and cross the Florida Keys by early this afternoon.
432 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2020 Low cloud with occasional light snow or fog will persist around the Yellowstone valley through the morning on the edge of the cold northern plains high pressure. Upper wave crossing the region today will at least partially clear out the low clouds, and shift the boundary a little to the east.
Warmer and drier conditions are expected elsewhere. Colder air will once again spread across the Great Basin region this weekend as low pressure moves in from the north.
Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes region into the Tennessee Valley with strong northwest flow aloft from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. This feature will allow upper troughing to remain from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. We will finally get into some return flow and warmer temps Sat as the upper trough continues to push east resulting in the upper pattern flattening out across the Rockies into the Plains. The northern stream system will allow a cold front to move through the forecast area during the day Sun, flipping winds around to the north and ushering-in some cooler temps. Attention will then turn to the southern stream upper low that should be tracking over northern Baja by Tue morning.
High pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific will keep Utah under a moist northwest flow today. A cold upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest Friday night, then settle into The Great Basin with some rain and snow and colder temperatures this weekend.
This upper trough axis will track pretty fast east through the morning and HR data showing snowfall really waning off. Sat morning we will be subfreezing. ECM favors bringing a warm front just north of area Wed night, followed by a cold front on Thu. Snowfall continues across Middle Tennessee this morning as a series of weak upper troughs swings across the region.
This flow is currently favorable to continue light snow effects in the Big Horn Basin and along the Big Horn Mountains today as well, with another inch or so possible in the lower elevations. Advisories for the lower elevations and Warnings for the higher elevations continue through around midday, but may be able to drop some of these earlier with improving conditions. Weak ridging between waves for Saturday will bring some milder conditions to the region, with most lower elevations reaching near or above freezing.
Meanwhile the axis of mean longwave troughing aloft stretches from the upper Midwest through the central Plains and down to the Gulf this morning. The trough will continue slowly pushing east through the remainder of the period. For the remainder of the period, upper flow will begin to de- amplify and surface ridging will slide across the area with clearing skies and light winds as a result.
503 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 Widespread light snow continues to spread across the area this morning along a weak area of low pressure slowly drops south towards the mid-Mississippi Valley. Cloud cover will stick around for much of the day after the snow ends this morning/afternoon, with skies clearing out across western Minnesota tonight as drier high pressure moves in from the west. Dry weather is expected through Saturday afternoon as high pressure briefly passes over the region, with highs in the upper teens to low 20s.
543 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 Widespread light snow continues to spread across the area this morning along a weak area of low pressure slowly drops south towards the mid-Mississippi Valley. Cloud cover will stick around for much of the day after the snow ends this morning/afternoon, with skies clearing out across western Minnesota tonight as drier high pressure moves in from the west. Dry weather is expected through Saturday afternoon as high pressure briefly passes over the region, with highs in the upper teens to low 20s.
Winds have switched to the northwest as a weak cold front moved through and should stay mainly out of the northwest at 15-25 mph through the rest of the day. Saturday will bring warmer temperatures as south to southwest winds increase through the day and 850 mb temps warm to 4-5 (C). Saturday night with a strong LLJ and an approaching cold front overnight lows should stay in the upper 20s to low 30s.
/issued 427 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/ A large upper trough is over most of the country with West Texas and southeast New Mexico on the backside of the trough. The upper trough will move eastward and weaken on Saturday with the CWA under westerly flow aloft.
637 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Rain chances will continue to diminish this morning as a cold front shifts east of the area. Dry high pressure will build into the region behind the front today. The cold front has shifted east of the area. Low pressure will continue to deepen as it lifts across the Northeastern CONUS today resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area. It will be much cooler today than the past several days with cold air advection behind the front.
Pockets of light freezing rain are still possible in isolated valleys that remain under inversions. A cold front will then bring a brief burst of widespread snow during the early morning hours on Saturday.
In central MO, temperatures will be a little warmer, so expect some light rain to mix in with the snow. High pressure moves in behind the front tonight, mostly clearing skies and dropping temperatures down tonight to the teens up north and low 20s down south. The high pressure will quickly move east, allowing for southerly flow to return for Saturday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to low 40s across most of the area, with the exception of far north-central and northeastern MO, who will barely reach the low 30s.
Overnight lows near or a couple degrees below zero look common for SW MN with temps hanging near the lower teens or upper single digits toward the MO River, although certainly some potential to trend even colder.
413 AM PST Fri Feb 7 2020 Dry and warmer weather will continue through Saturday with temperatures around average.