Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
647 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 For the 12Z TAFs, a cold front will move thru the TAF sites this morning with gusty north to northeast winds in its wake. /Issued 449 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ Temps today will be similar to slightly warmer than yesterday. A cold front will push through today but the cooler air behind it will lag enough to allow us to reach into the 60s and 70s. While the Panhandles are busy seeing clouds on Sunday, a closed low in the mid levels begins to swing southward and approach the Pacific NW while another low pressure trough invades southern California.
The cold front is on its way through the region as of this issuance, moving through KGRI/KEAR between 3 and 4am. Sunday: The remainder of Sunday will be cool with highs near freezing and the sky beginning to scatter.
Pictures from space showing plenty of mid and high level clouds streaming over Northwest CA as an upper high pressure ridge off the central and S California coast shifts East and weakens.
Winds will shift to the northeast this afternoon as a cold front moves through. /issued 255 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ A cold front moving southward through northwest Colorado and southwest Nebraska early this morning will enter the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon, likely stalling not too long after doing so. This cold air will act similarly to the cold front and stall across the forecast area during the day Sunday, while to the southwest of Lubbock southeast to south winds will erode the initial cool surge. This sets up a tricky forecast for the high temperature field with the potential for both a big gradient across the area and a big bust.
Temperatures will be cold tonight, especially across northern and central Montana with many locations reaching the lower single digits and even below zero for overnight lows.
Arctic cold front moved south through the high plains, with winds shifting to the north and northeast, and abundant low cloud cover.
/PATCHY DENSE FOG/ Minor update to account for some patchy dense fog over the Coastal Prairies and to initialize temps and dew points that are slightly warmer than previous projections. Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the middle of the country with a ridge over the coast of northern Mexico and the southern US. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the southeast US and winds across our CWA were from the southeast. The upper level ridge over the west coast will move to the east today, but will be flattened through the rest of this period. The low level flow will continue from the southeast pumping moisture into the boundary layer.
1259 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Dry weather is expected through most of the day under building high pressure. Precipitation chances return tonight with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather through most of the day as high pressure slides east across the region. Increasing wind is expected this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the exiting high and the approaching cold front. The cold front is progged to cross late tonight. What will need to be watched in future model runs is how far south and east tonight's cold front pushes on Sunday. At this time, the greatest threat for advisory level snowfall would be south of I-70 and particularly over the ridge counties.
A narrow band of light showers has developed ahead of weak cold front north of a Burns-Caldwell-Featherville line at 1430z.
Tampa sounding showed cool dome behind cold front was 3,200 feet thick. Shallow cool air behind a cold front stalled in south Florida had created BKN-SCT010-025 south of a line from KSRQ-KGIF. Front will dissipate through the weekend with high pressure building in in its place.
However this cold front will lose much of its punch by the time it makes its way south to near Missoula where winds of 20 to 30 mph may be possible this morning.
High pressure that gave us a chilly early morning in the 30s was moving off to the east. VFR is expected for most of this TAF cycle, however after 03Z Sunday, a cold front will push into southern KY and northern TN, bringing showers and lowered flight categories.
1119 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Currently - The Florida Keys reside in a fairly flat pressure gradient to the west of the Atlantic Ridge and high pressure over the eastern United States. A cold front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is stalling and an associated band of showers are weakening and not making much progress towards the Keys. Short Term Update - The cold front to our northwest will remain out of our area. High pressure to our north will not be able to bridge southwards into our area until after today. Weak flow and ample sun will let temperatures creep upwards into the lower 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70.
A cold front is located across southwest Wisconsin through northwest Missouri and into the Texas panhandle. Southerly winds will increase resulting in warmer temperatures. A cold front will move into the Midsouth tonight, but mid to upper level steering flow will become zonal.
1234 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A ridge of high pressure will move through from the west today and off the coast tonight.
1247 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A ridge of high pressure will move through from the west today and tonight then slide offshore Sunday.
904 AM PDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A low pressure trough off the West Coast will dim the Spring sun with considerable high cloud cover at times the next few days.
Cold front currently moving into the Lake Okeechobee region late this morning, where it's more or less expected to wash out later today, especially as flow behind it has already veered NNE. We've gotten just enough daytime heating before the higher clouds moved in to kick off some isolated shower development, mainly along the east coast where a diffuse east coast seabreeze is getting going. Developing cumulus suggests some continuing surface convergence along the front even as it dies, and this along with both the Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes and a modest 500mb trough swinging through may be enough to kick off a storm or two.
Main challenge is southward movement of a cold front into and across Kansas the next couple of days which will impact temperatures and convective chances over the area.
As the upper trough to our north dips southward tonight, the large stratus shield will advect in, bringing widespread low clouds to the area by daybreak tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the dew points will be decreasing behind the front and with the cold air advection (albeit delayed), highs tomorrow will be held in the low to mid 70s under cloudy skies. Did not include any pops for tomorrow, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see a little drizzle from the low stratus.
Fog seems unlikely as dewpoints at TRI have dropped into the lower 60s, and forecast low temps are in the upper 60s.
A second area of thunderstorms will likely form this evening most likely after sunset north of the front as the low level jet increases convergence north of the frontal boundary.
Cooler temperatures have set up over the region today in a cold air advection pattern. Winds will be fairly light with cooler temperatures still in place. These cooler temps will be felt more in eastern areas, where highs will only top out in the 70s. A warmer air mass over central SD will allow temps to climb into the 80s on Thursday. Upper level northwest flow will be over the area at the beginning of the period ahead of a building ridge over the Rockies.
1147 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The upper level ridge over the region will keep high pressure over the Ozarks this evening and into the early part of the day Thursday. This will keep the area on the warm side as temperatures this afternoon top out in the low to middle 90s with heat index values from 99 to 106. Overnight lows will remain warm, only dropping into the lower to middle 70s. A cold front will be moving south and begin to makes its slow progress through the Ozarks Thursday evening. The upper ridge/high will begin to shift westward as this occurs which will give the Ozarks a respite to the heat for a few days.
We should see increasing coverage over the next couple of days as a cold front approaches from the North. Hot and humid across the Mid-South with temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. A broad upper ridge remains across the southern U. Afternoon heat index values will hit the low 100s across parts of the Mid-South.
Clouds will linger into the overnight and morning hours as the upper trough hangs out over the MN arrowhead.
Sfc map shows Bermuda high pres ridging west acrs the Gulf coast which is maintaining light southeasterly winds over the region. Upper air analysis and WV imagery shows a large ridge of high pres acrs the southern US from the TX/OK panhandles east to KY/TN. A trough was noted on the southwest flank of the ridge from the Big Bend to the lower MS Valley.
Over the northern Urban Corridor, cloudy skies have kept temperatures cooler and therefore shower activity has been weaker. Mountain areas will see another round of shower activity, primarily due to the heating of the day, being enhanced over the higher terrain. Temperatures are also going to remain cooler on the plains, contributing to the airmass remain too stable to support strong convection.
Thursday: Models show likelihood of diurnal showers and storms with upper high overhead. Convection should wane through the evening hours and perhaps linger into the overnight across and near the higher terrain.
Also, with persistence the best way to go right now, will add some patchy fog Central Louisiana, mainly north of the highway 190 corridor. Sfc map shows Bermuda high pres ridging west acrs the Gulf coast which is maintaining light southeasterly winds over the region. Upper air analysis and WV imagery shows a large ridge of high pres acrs the southern US from the TX/OK panhandles east to KY/TN. A trough was noted on the southwest flank of the ridge from the Big Bend to the lower MS Valley.
The exception being along the Rio Grande where proximity to an inverted trough centered just east of the Big Bend region will keep slight chances there for the rest of tonight. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low over the Big Bend region which is providing enough lift to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms. The upper low will move slowly to the west during the rest of this period.
High pressure maintains mostly clear skies and light winds at area terminals through Thursday. PN /ISSUED 525 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ High pressure aloft will continue building over the CWA during the period, allowing fair weather to grace most of the region. However, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible over/near the higher terrain, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
The upper ridge axis will be positioned over north-central Montana making local flow aloft northwesterly. A semi-permanent upper low will build the heights over Montana Thursday while surface return flow will help to heat up things over the area.
Otherwise, made some minor adjustments to the sky cover and dewpoint temperature forecast for current trends with dewpoints already in the low to mid 70s. With ample moisture advection also continuing to filter into the area from the S, thx in part to a persistent ridge of high pressure over the mid/srn Atlantic Basins, sct showers/tstms look to remain possible well into the day on Fri. Temps both Thu/Fri nights also look to remain seasonably mild, as lows trend mainly in the lower/mid 70s. Sct showers/tstms will then be possible into Fri night, as a weak cold front approaches the local area from the N.
An upper ridge extending from the interior southeast states to the central Plains strengthens slightly during the period while subtle upper level features influence convective development. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
1051 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A cold front will stall south of the region overnight. Low pressure will move along the front overnight through Thursday.
Skies are clear this evening except for cumulus over the higher terrain of Harney, southern Malheur, and Owyhee counties. Models agree on rebuilding the upper level ridge over the western U.
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 19z/2pm surface map shows 1008mb low over western Wisconsin with cold front extending southwestward into central Iowa. The cold front will settle southward into central Illinois on Thursday, setting off scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
The low level jet should increase to 35 to 40kts overnight with veering Thursday morning. Cold front has been slowly making progress through the area this afternoon, with surface based convection developing along it just north of the Platte river around 18z.
Relief is already moving into the state behind a southward advancing cold front. Dew points in northwest Iowa have fallen into the low to mid 60s. A weak vort max over central and eastern Nebraska has helped trigger thunderstorms in the vicinity of the cold front.
/issued 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ (Tonight and tomorrow) An upper level high pressure ridge continues to sit over the center of the country. However, models do indicate that an upper level low pressure system over north central Mexico will continue to drift towards the northwest. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will drop into lower 70s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 90s.
A cold front approaching the region from the northwest will track slowly southward into the Carolinas over the weekend. There has been little to no change in airmass, with high pressure dominating aloft and warm, moist southwesterly flow at the surface. As a result, expect another warm, humid night with lows in the low to mid 70s and RHs in the 85+ percent range. The height gradient will tighten over the OH Valley as an upper level low progresses ESE across the upper Great Lakes on Thu. In response, a weak albeit more pronounced SW flow aloft (and potential for small amplitude disturbances) may be present on the western periphery of the ridge over the southern Appalachians.
708 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Models are kind of all over the place this afternoon so will trend towards a solution with the stalled out frontal boundary over the northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska as it drifts to the north tonight and an upper level wave rounds the ridge to the west. Boundary begins to lift north after 6z and upper closed low over KLBF around 12z with precipitation moving east intop south central Nebraska.
High pressure ridging builds back quickly for Thursday bringing sunny skies, dry conditions and hot temperatures with most areas in the middle to upper 90s.
1000 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The high surf advisory will expire at 10 pm this evening.
With the help of the cloud cover associated with today's precip, temperatures have remained a tad on the cooler side.
Overnight, lows will drop to the lower 70s for most locations. An upper level ridge across the southern tier of the United States will continue to be the main factor in our wx through Thursday.
This low is forecast to track east northeast across central Wisconsin through this evening. A cold front extends south southwest from this low through Red Wing Minnesota and Oelwein Iowa. As a short trough, currently located over southwest Minnesota, the 900 to 750 mb cap will erode. The highest threat looks to be in the counties along the Mississippi River and east.
Elsewhere, cumulus that had been building up over the higher mts this afternoon had dissipated leaving clear skies.
Can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm tonight for KSOA as the upper low moves into the Big Bend. /issued 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ (Tonight and tomorrow) An upper level high pressure ridge continues to sit over the center of the country. However, models do indicate that an upper level low pressure system over north central Mexico will continue to drift towards the northwest. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will drop into lower 70s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 90s.
Some of the high-res models indicating patchy low clouds and fog across inland areas.
835 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A cold front will stall south of the region tonight. Low pressure will move along the front overnight through Thursday.
South of this boundary, temperatures will once again be hot reaching into the upper 90s with heat indicies once again in the lower 100s.
Hot and humid across the Mid-South with temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. A broad upper ridge remains across the southern U. Afternoon heat index values will hit the low 100s across parts of the Mid-South.
Early morning lows Thu look to trend mainly into the lower 70s for most locations, as Gulf moisture continues to stream nwd into the region. With ample moisture advection also continuing to filter into the area from the S, thx in part to a persistent ridge of high pressure over the mid/srn Atlantic Basins, sct showers/tstms look to remain possible well into the day on Fri. Temps both Thu/Fri nights also look to remain seasonably mild, as lows trend mainly in the lower/mid 70s. Sct showers/tstms will then be possible into Fri night, as a weak cold front approaches the local area from the N.
As we go through the night, should see this high cloud cover continue to thin which should allow overnight min temps to be reached towards sunrise Thu morning. A cold front could gather much overhead into the weekend greater TS intensity and coverage through the weekend and make the low level winds a little shifty for the mornings to come Fri and Sat.
900 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Cold front has been slowly making progress through the area this afternoon, with surface based convection developing along it just north of the Platte river around 18z.
Convection is developing just north of Omaha this afternoon along a cold front, and this activity will spread and expand into much of southern Iowa and parts of northern Missouri overnight as the front progresses southward and interacts with an intensifying low level jet. This interaction could bring areas of heavy rain, although for now the higher chances look to be just north of the Missouri/Iowa border.
Upper ridge will begin to rebuild in earnest by Thursday and remain in control through the weekend.
A surface analysis shows temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values so far are running 95 to 100, highest along and west of I-65. Plan on a mild and muggy overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s. Given the high amounts of instability and moisture in place, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the main threats.
625 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Discrete storms are developing along the advancing cold front stretching from northeast to southwest WI early this evening. Look for winds to shift to the northwest with the passage of the cold front. Upstream ML CAPE values are 2K-4K J/KG over northeast IA and southeast MN ahead of the approaching low and associated cold front. Should be enough though given the high instability for a severe storm threat. Given the progressive nature of the front and expected average storm motion of around 30-40 mph, the threat for additional widespread flooding should be on the low end. Between a fair amount of cloudiness tomorrow and cooler temps aloft, should see highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low over the Big Bend region which is providing enough lift to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms. The upper low will move slowly to the west during the rest of this period.
VFR conditions prevail, with generally light and variable winds through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds over the region. /ISSUED 525 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ High pressure aloft will continue building over the CWA during the period, allowing fair weather to grace most of the region. However, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible over/near the higher terrain, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
Current temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago but will eventually cool off to similar lows that we had this morning.
1214 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 A cold front will stall south of the region overnight. Low pressure will move along the front overnight through Thursday.
An upper low over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will gradually shift south-southwest over the next 24 hours. This will allow the upper level ridge centered near the 4 Corners area to build towards the Pacific Northwest. Thus expect to see only some high based cumulus clouds over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon and evening.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. The upper level ridge pattern that has been in place over the last few days will remain in place tomorrow, resulting in a weather day typical of the previous few. However, high pressure building into the surface from the east will result in a shift of higher PoPs due to afternoon convection from the eastern portions of the region to the central and western portions.
Steering flow and shear increase Thursday as an inverted trof, currently east of the Big Bend continues to push west.
705 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Cold front has been slowly making progress through the area this afternoon, with surface based convection developing along it just north of the Platte river around 18z.
Models have a good handle on this and remain fairly consistent through the upcoming weekend with the ridge starting to slowly break down as the low moves west. Precipitation chances return to the region, although still in the slight chance range for now, as the ridge center consolidates over Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. This will place the region under north to northeasterly flow which is not typically favorable for pushing thunderstorms off the higher terrain of New Mexico into the area.
/issued 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday night): A mid-level inverted trough to the south will continue a slow westward movement into Mexico. Broad mid-level ridging will then reside over East Texas. Near normal temperatures will continue through the period under a mix of clouds and sun, and light to moderate southeast winds will continue with high pressure over the Gulf.
The approaching cold front, as expected, is making very slow progress toward the area as it lies nearly parallel to the westerly upper-level flow. 19z/2pm surface map shows 1008mb low over western Wisconsin with cold front extending southwestward into central Iowa. The cold front will settle southward into central Illinois on Thursday, setting off scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
The high temperature for July 12th at the Key West International Airport was 92F, which is the warmest high temperature to be observed so far in 2017 in Key West. Historically, Key West on average observes a high temperature of 92F or warmer for the first time on July 9th.
Weak cold front will spread southward tonight, ushering in N/NW winds of 10-20 mph. Feel NW Kansas convection will give the front a good push, but despite the surface convergence, 593 dm heights and subsidence from ridging aloft are expected to squash thunderstorms roughly south of K-96 tonight. Cooler, but exactly how much cooler is up for debate. NAM-based solutions are MUCH cooler for Thursday, suggesting many locations will struggle to climb out of the 70s north of US 50. High pressure aloft with 592-594 dm heights will limit wind shear and instability, with warm 500 mb temperatures and weak flow aloft.
High pressure aloft will continue building over the CWA during the period, allowing fair weather to grace most of the region. However, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible over/near the higher terrain, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
1036 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Upper level analysis shows nearly zonal flow over the northern plains, with slight ridging over the northwestern CONUS. The upper ridge will begin rebuilding over the western CONUS Thursday, persisting into the weekend.