Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure was in place across the Northland this afternoon with a trough draped along the Michigan/Wisconsin border. Additionally, a stationary boundary was observed across the Northern Plains to an area of low pressure in southwestern Iowa. There is a non-zero chance of isolated freezing rain, but surface temperatures look to be above freezing by the time precipitation begins which will minimize the threat.
A gradual cooling trend will begin Tuesday as high pressure is displaced by a series of weather systems passing to the north, but temperatures will remain several degrees above normal for most of the week.
535 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 The warming trend will continue through Tuesday night as the upper level ridge centered over the Rockies shifts eastward to the central US on Tuesday.
Dry and warmer weather is then expected through mid week.
Lows tonight will be warmer (upper 40s to upper 50s) than what we've seen over these last several days thanks to winds becoming more southerly. Quiet weather will continue tomorrow as a high pressure sits over eastern Tennessee and north eastern Georgia. This high pressure will help surface southerly flow across the reason increasing warm advection. Due to this high temperatures will be on the warmer side and climb into the upper 70s for some areas! Expect partly clouds skies for much of the day with some clearing happening during the evening.
Surrounding areas, which had been experiencing well above normal afternoon highs under sunny skies, are generally seeing a slight downward trend in temperatures from this time yesterday, thanks to the high cloud cover. The main energy and precipitation chances with this trough remain well north of our area, but It will make conditions less favorable for widespread dense fog development.
Otherwise, guidance continues to favor increasing cloudiness from the southwest after daybreak on Tuesday as the old cold front lifts back northward as warm front. On Tuesday a warm front will surge northward across the region favoring moisture advection in the llvs. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 66 51 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 63 50 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 37 61 51 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 60 44 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 0.
The weak upper level ridge across the western United States will slowly erode tonight promoting zonal flow aloft for Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper level trough approaches the area. Meanwhile, southerly flow at the surface will continue to gradually advect a warmer and more moist airmass into South Texas ahead of the approaching cold front. As a result, warmer than normal temperatures will continue tomorrow with temperatures ranging between the lower to upper 80s, which is about 10 degrees above normal. With mostly clear skies expected tonight and tomorrow night, radiational cooling will keep us cool at nights with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 60s.
Tonight, a cold front passes through the area. A broad area of upper level ridging resides overhead. A closed upper level area of lower heights is currently in place along the British Columbia west coast, with an upper level trof located over the eastern U. Overnight tonight, a surface cold front passes across the region, leaving cooler temperatures in its wake.
518 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Variable cloud cover is expected tonight and Tuesday as a warm front slowly drifts northward.
935 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure will build back across the area tonight through the middle part of the week.
308 PM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 Broad upper ridge over the northern Rockies. Warm front extends from low in southwestern Canada across eastern MT and almost to the Missouri River with temperatures in the 60s over the forecast area. Thick cirrus ahead of the upper ridge axis is crossing the forecast area, along with lee side convergence winds on the east side of the Black Hills, have kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than anticipated. Cold front will begin to move through the area Tuesday morning, with very strong northwest winds behind it.
Today and Tomorrow: A warm front is currently located over a portion of the forecast area. Areas on the warm side are observing a bright, warm day with peak temperatures in the low 70s (as of 2 PM). Areas on the other side of that front (such as Wayne or Harlan), are observing thicker cloud cover and temperatures in the low 50s (as of 2 PM). With a warmer start to the day (higher overnight lows) and persistent warm air advection, forecasting temperatures above most model guidance is a sensible decision.
Tonight, a cold front passes through the area. Regarding current highlights, the red flag warning for the Central region has expired, and Beaverhead and Madison counties have been added to the High Wind Warning. A broad area of upper level ridging resides overhead. A closed upper level area of lower heights is currently in place along the British Columbia west coast, with an upper level trof located over the eastern U. Overnight tonight, a surface cold front passes across the region, leaving cooler temperatures in its wake.
420 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 An upper level trough will exit the region to the east tonight.
545 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Short range impacts concerns: Freezing drizzle impacts should be over for the rest of the short term period.
A cold front associated with the powerful Pacific jet stream will move across the Northern Rockies overnight tonight, concentrating a burst of snow and rain along the front.
A warm front will lift north across the area tonight through Tue afternoon.
315 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Variable cloud cover is expected tonight and Tuesday as a warm front slowly drifts northward.
306 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Short range impacts concerns: Freezing drizzle impacts should be over for the rest of the short term period.
Dry but breezy conditions through this evening as a cold front approaches the region. Light showers are expected in northern Nevada during the overnight hours tonight and into Tuesday morning with temperatures trending cooler.
Look for an increase in low-level moisture by tomorrow morning as a warm front sets up just to our north.
426 PM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 Broad upper ridge over the northern Rockies. Warm front extends from low in southwestern Canada across eastern MT and almost to the Missouri River with temperatures in the 60s over the forecast area. Thick cirrus ahead of the upper ridge axis is crossing the forecast area, along with lee side convergence winds on the east side of the Black Hills, have kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than anticipated. Cold front will begin to move through the area Tuesday morning, with very strong northwest winds behind it.
An elongated low pressure system will be situated from southern Saskatchewan to the Texas panhandle tonight. Much of the western half of the area will likely reach Wind Advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will go with a High Wind Warning for Corson and Dewey counties where the highest wind gusts are more likely to occur. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 20s northeast, to the lower 40s southwest.
510 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Cyclonic flow is gradually losing its grip over the region as a broad mid-level ridge over the nation's mid-section creeps eastward. Height rises and subsidence will continue aloft as the ridge slowly builds overhead, but isentropic lift will ramp up later ahead of a warm front moving into western Iowa. The warm front will lift towards our area on Tuesday. Winds of 50-60 knots at 850mb associated with a strong low level jet will slide overhead midday, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely across much of the area, strongest in the higher elevation, wind-prone areas west of the Mississippi River and north-central WI. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday night.
Temperatures are on the rise as a warm front lifts northeastward through the region. Where the front has passed across southeast MO, temperatures have warmed into the lower 60s.
539 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Increasing mid-level heights from an approaching ridge will foster warmer overnight lows this evening in the upper 40s to low 50s across the state.
Temperatures will easily top out in the upper 70s, with western and southern zones in the lower to middle 80s. Temperatures will once again be about 10-15 degrees above normal, with highs in the lower to middle 80s along with plenty of sunshine.
311 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 An elongated low pressure system will be situated from southern Saskatchewan to the Texas panhandle tonight. Much of the western half of the area will likely reach Wind Advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will go with a High Wind Warning for Corson and Dewey counties where the highest wind gusts are more likely to occur. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 20s northeast, to the lower 40s southwest.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper ridging is over the southwest part of the country. The center of an upper trough will move over southern Canada tonight through tomorrow night. This will result in a flattening of the upper ridge.
312 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Upper ridging will pass over the region today which will help to keep conditions dry through the day. A warm front will slowly push northward across central Indiana today, turning winds more southerly, advecting in warmer air. As the warm front pushes north of the forecast area, can't rule out the potential for drizzle overnight with isentropic lift, but confidence is not high enough include it in the forecast. Ahead of an approaching cold front, a low level jet is expected to bring breezy winds from the early morning hours tomorrow into the evening.
Increased clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles will occur toward morning, in advance of the surface warm front. By midday, the higher surface dewpoints will mix down through most of the Midsouth, and lower clouds should partially break up. This will promote warmer temperatures and and poleward moisture flux ahead of the approaching trough. Guidance indicates the potential for a 4-6 kft cloud deck developing tonight into Tuesday and the above factors point to much warmer overnight lows. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low/mid 70s both tomorrow and Wednesday.
230 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Chilly high pressure will be over the region this morning.
243 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 A warm front will slowly lift across the region today. Warm temperatures continue to start the day Wednesday, but a cold front will sweep across the region bringing rain and falling temperatures during the afternoon. Early this morning, a warm front is draped from near Kansas City across St Louis into southern Illinois. Meanwhile, strengthening southwesterly flow and warm air advection ahead of the approaching front will result in gradual saturation of the lower levels which coupled with modest band of f-gen developing over the Illinois River Valley will bring an initial chance for light rain to portions of central Illinois after midnight tonight. Through the day Wednesday, a cold front will sweep across central Illinois.
109 AM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 A gradual cooling trend begins today as high pressure is displaced by a weather system passing to the north.
259 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Warmer temps will move in today thanks to southerly flow and a warm front moving through the area. Ridging will keep the southerly flow and warmer temps into Wednesday as the trough approaches.
245 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 An upper level trough was moving across the northern Rockies per the 08Z water vapor imagery. Surface observations showed a trough of low pressure extending from the Canadian plains south into west TX. But the 03Z RAP and 00Z GFS are trending towards the boundary layer saturating ahead of the cold front generally around or after 06Z, juts not as far north and west as the NAM has it. First models show 925MB temps slightly cooler today than was observed yesterday. Have kept highs in the lower and middle 70s, but this could be a touch optimistic. It looks like the cold front should move through most if not all of the forecast area by sunrise Wednesday.
As the high pressure shifts east, the low level winds will become more southeasterly across the region, beginning to increase the moisture across the CWA. Highs will warm on Tuesday into the low to mid 70s, a few degrees warmer then today, particularly across the northern portion of the CWA. The upper level flow will become more southwesterly ahead of a trough moving across the central CONUS.
A dry zonal aloft will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night, becoming slightly more southwesterly on Wednesday as an upper trough moves east across the central CONUS. An onshore southeasterly flow strengthens slightly by the end of the period, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures. Daytime highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 70s most locations, but a few upper 70s possible. On Wednesday a couple of degrees warmer, with temps primarily topping out in the mid and upper 70s. Lows tuesday night warmer than the past previous few nights, ranging from the lower 50s inland, to mid and upper 50s closer to the coast and even a few lower 60s along the beaches.
A warm front is developing to our immediate north, so look for low-level moisture to increase during the next several hours so that MVFR ceilings will develop across the mid state for a good part of the day Tuesday. Also, a few of our terminals look to meet LLWS criteria tomorrow as near-surface winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
Storm system over southwest Canada will move east through Wednesday, as an attached cold front swings east across the Dakotas today. Temperatures, meanwhile will likely be warmer than the model blend for today as a quite warm airmass gets mixed out before CAA sets in.
On Wednesday a cold front will move through and bring stronger west/northwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Tonight through Wednesday - A strong area of low pressure will develop across southern Canada, while another secondary low forms across southern Minnesota. Overnight a cold front will move though the region, and that will lead to cooler temperatures for Wednesday with west/northwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible. The combination of cooler air aloft together with some weak upper level forcing will bring a small chance for snow showers across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
The lingering sfc trof axis, very warm highs west of the trof and pleasant highs east of it. We will see increasing mid to high level clouds by afternoon to evening as a UL trof drops down from the northwest. A dry cold front will traverse across the prairie early Wednesday morning.
Expect just a bit cooler daytime temperatures and noticeable breezes on a couple of the days as dry weather disturbances brush Arizona. Average overnight lows are forecast for tonight as areas downslope on the east-northeast side of higher terrain will likely be a tad warmer thanks to southwest breezes.
339 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week.
Mid-level heights already lowering early this morning in response to an upper level trough moving across the western states over the next 24-36 hours. This approaching trough will also bring an increase in high cloudiness going forward. By Wednesday the system is east of the area with the "cooler" air mass in place which will result in high temperatures settling closer to, but not quite down to average for mid-November.
Dry and warmer weather is then expected through mid week. Ridging is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region through Wednesday. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected, though clouds should increase Tuesday night and Wednesday as moist advection occurs in southerly flow. Shower chances return mainly late Wednesday night with the approach of the trough/sfc front.
A cold front will move into northwestern Oklahoma around midnight and will be approaching central Oklahoma around or a bit after daybreak Wednesday. Gusty north winds and cooler air will follow.
High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will shift over the western Atlantic today and Wednesday.
300 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 One last warm and dry day today with a warm front currently stalled along the I-70 corridor. In the meantime, as an upper level ridge builds east across the region, a southwesterly low level jet will develop, increasing to 40+kts. This will advect in warmer 850 mb temperatures and allow gusty winds to mix down to the surface. By tonight, an upper level trough across the Northern Plains will continue to deepen and slide eastward towards the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front southeastward into northwestern Missouri by 06z Wednesday. On Wednesday, even though the low level jet will weaken, there will be enough low/mid level frontogenetical forcing to generate widespread post frontal rain through Wednesday night.
112 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week.
This advisory is scheduled to end at 15z, which is when the High Wind Warning over the plains begins. Broad upper ridge over the northern Rockies. Warm front extends from low in southwestern Canada across eastern MT and almost to the Missouri River with temperatures in the 60s over the forecast area. Thick cirrus ahead of the upper ridge axis is crossing the forecast area, along with lee side convergence winds on the east side of the Black Hills, have kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than anticipated. Cold front will begin to move through the area Tuesday morning, with very strong northwest winds behind it. Winds will increase again Wednesday as upper low tracks across southern Canada, so have the warning extend to late Wednesday afternoon. Ridge rebounds after trof moves eastward, then flattens toward the end of the week.
Significant upper trof moving into the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest this evening will progress steadily eastward reaching the north central conus Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a plethora of mid and high level moisture/clouds are expected to advect/develop downstream of the approaching upper trof across the rest of Kansas. Combination of lift just ahead of the advancing cold front late Tuesday night and continued low level moist advection may result in patchy drizzle/light rain per previous discussion and going forecast across southeast Kansas.
A warm front bisecting the forecast area will lift north today, allowing the 70s that were felt yesterday from Albion to Lincoln to Falls City to overspread the remainder of the region. A strong cold front pushing into northeast NE late this afternoon will move through the forecast area this evening and overnight. A couple of the the Highres models suggest some spotty precipitation behind the front, but the moisture is too meager and will just forecast an increase in cloud cover. The front does set the stage for sharply cooler temperatures Wednesday, with continued breezy northwesterly winds.
1017 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week.
High pressure was in place across the Northland this afternoon with a trough draped along the Michigan/Wisconsin border. Additionally, a stationary boundary was observed across the Northern Plains to an area of low pressure in southwestern Iowa. There is a non-zero chance of isolated freezing rain, but surface temperatures look to be above freezing by the time precipitation begins which will minimize the threat. A large upper low will pass to our north for Wednesday and may bring light snow showers to areas along and north of the Iron Range through the day before tapering off overnight as the upper trough moves east.
Cold front passed Burns/OR around 530 PM PST with a peak wind gust of 47 mph from the west-southwest. The cold front and upper trough will move rapidly east and should be near the Continental Divide by noon Tuesday. A cold front will bring areas of rain and mountain snow through 16/12Z. A cold front is now moving across western WA and will move into our region tonight. Winds will increase this evening ahead of the cold front, especially in eastern OR where a wind advisory remains in effect. Showers will mainly be focused over the higher terrain, with isolated showers in the valley locations as the front moves through. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches possible over the higher terrain above 7000 feet. Temperatures will be much cooler, around 20 degrees cooler than today and around 5 degrees below normal.
305 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Warmer and dry today. Cooler conditions return for the end of the week. There will be warm air advection today ahead of a warm front, but daytime highs will be dependent on how fast the stratus lifts. It will be dry into this evening, then rain showers will start moving in overnight with the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front.
1030 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Cyclonic flow is gradually losing its grip over the region as a broad mid-level ridge over the nation's mid-section creeps eastward. Height rises and subsidence will continue aloft as the ridge slowly builds overhead, but isentropic lift will ramp up later ahead of a warm front moving into western Iowa. The warm front will lift towards our area on Tuesday. Winds of 50-60 knots at 850mb associated with a strong low level jet will slide overhead midday, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely across much of the area, strongest in the higher elevation, wind-prone areas west of the Mississippi River and north-central WI. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday night.
More clouds today into early tonight along with warmer temperatures. With some shallow isentropic lift indicated in the low levels, expect increased clouds but while a sprinkle or a bit of drizzle cannot be ruled out, for now probability looks too low to include any precipitation in the forecast. High temperatures are challenging today given uncertainties about how persistent the low clouds will be.
/Issued 212 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is expected on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. By Wednesday evening, the position of the cold front will likely bisect the CWA, with showers and a few storms developing along and just ahead of the front.
350 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Warmer and dry today. Cooler conditions return for the end of the week. There will be warm air advection today ahead of a warm front, but daytime highs will be dependent on how fast the stratus lifts. It will be dry into this evening, then rain showers will start moving in overnight with the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front.
1052 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 The warming trend will continue through Tuesday night as the upper level ridge centered over the Rockies shifts eastward to the central US on Tuesday. An upper level trough will move eastward into the Northern Plains Tuesday night and send a cold front southeastward into northeastern MO by 12Z Wednesday. GKS The upper level trough will deepen over the Northern Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night with the cold front dropping southeastward through our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
) A cold front pushes through the region Wednesday bringing increased rain chances. Total rainfall amounts look to remain light (generally less than a quarter inch), with the highest amounts expected over south-central Missouri.
255 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Surface and upper-level ridging will be across the area today before moving east and offshore into Wednesday.