Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Decreasing winds overnight will allow temps to drop into the 20s most places, as the high cloud coverage should be a little less tonight. VFR conditions are expected through Friday as high pressure briefly moves through the area.
745 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Broad high pressure northeast of the Bahamas continues to ridge over Florida producing pleasant weather conditions tonight. The highest rain chances will occur over the Nature Coast with showers approaching the Tampa Bay area Friday afternoon.
644 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 It looks like the trof/weather system that has been affecting us for a while will finally lift out of the area the next 12 hours. With cloud cover holding in for much of the are overnight, have raised low temperatures to the warmer MAV levels.
743 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure will dominate with dry, VFR conditions prevail through Friday night.
909 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Another night of rain can be expected before cold frontal passage ends it on Friday. Changes for the late eve update were primarily cosmetic as categorical POPs already covered the rain engulfing the region with the advance of a cold front. Cooler conditions expected tomorrow as temperatures struggle to recover into the 40s with persistent strong cold advection. Precipitation should be largely east of the ridges by early afternoon, and clouds will diminish through the evening as high pressure builds in over the region.
Northerly winds are expected to continue as a dry secondary cold front moves through the region later tonight.
A cold front passage will occur at the I-35 sites in the first hour of the TAF period shifting winds to the northwest and result in some initially gusty winds. Not far behind the dryline, a cold front was located across west central Texas into north Texas. The cold front will then move through the region this evening, bringing a northerly wind shift and cooler air to south central Texas.
The backside of the low that pushed through last night will see a brief period of mostly cloudy skies and very small rain chances some of the high res models are picking up on for the northern counties along the I-70 corridor. Tomorrow will see leeside troughing to develop and deepen along the Kansas and Colorado border turning winds out of the southwest gusting up to 25-30mph. High temperatures will push well into the 60s due to the downsloping warmer winds out of the southwest from east to west with 70s possible for the southwest portions of the CWA.
Rain chances will increase further tomorrow ahead of an upper low and associated cold front. After that, high pressure will briefly bring much needed dry conditions for Friday.
1229 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 High pressure will weaken as it moves offshore through tonight.
A weak cold front wl drop through the area this evening and bring a wind shift to the north in its wake but the wind wl remain 10kts or less.
/issued 322 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ A cold front has just pushed into Northeast Arkansas at this time. Meanwhile, a line of convection is beginning to develop across Eastern Arkansas ahead of the approaching cold front. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South by Friday afternoon into the Friday evening. The high will quickly shift east.
/issued 918 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ Midevening GOES East water vapor imagery showed a broad midlevel trof entering the mid MS River valley. /issued 322 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ A cold front has just pushed into Northeast Arkansas at this time. Meanwhile, a line of convection is beginning to develop across Eastern Arkansas ahead of the approaching cold front. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South by Friday afternoon into the Friday evening. The high will quickly shift east.
627 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Upper level trough is finally beginning to move out of the region this evening with rain ending from west to east across the eastern Ozarks. High pressure moving over the area tomorrow will allow for a pretty day with light winds and temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 for the afternoon.
948 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Cooler, drier air continues to filter into the region from the northwest in the wake of an upper level trough which continues to move through the region this evening. Sfc cold front has just about cleared our southeast parishes this evening and the post frontal pressure gradient should be enough such that we will keep enough of a northwest wind at the surface to keep temperatures from bottoming out too much. Even so, hourly temperatures are running cooler than hourly forecast temps, especially across our northwest zones so have lowered min temps tonight just a degree or two in a few locations.
918 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Midevening GOES East water vapor imagery showed a broad midlevel trof entering the mid MS River valley. /issued 322 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ A cold front has just pushed into Northeast Arkansas at this time. Meanwhile, a line of convection is beginning to develop across Eastern Arkansas ahead of the approaching cold front. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South by Friday afternoon into the Friday evening. The high will quickly shift east.
A cold front will move across the region today with scattered snow showers. Low pressure is expected to develop off the mid atlantic coast midweek and then pass well south of the area. Cold front will cross the region this morning, and some backing winds aloft are taking a toll on the upslope SHSN in the mtns, and will do so for a few hours before the front arrives. A broad upper trof will remain over the maritimes Sun night through midweek providing a cold northwest flow with temps well below normal. The system that bears watching will be an upper low currently over the southern Rockies that will move through the southern plains early in the week and then move off the mid atlantic coast midweek.
Highs Saturday will be in the lower 30s north to near 40 southwest. Model consensus for this has the upper low over Nebraska moving east allowing an h500 ridge to build into the northern plains Saturday afternoon and night.
Benign weekend weather areawide with zonal flow aloft today then slight upper ridging Sunday. Weak high pressure over the region to move into the W Atlantic Sunday with low level flow becoming southerly.
The developing trough to the west will allow for increased gradient over the area by the afternoon. especially for western portions of the area which will farthest away from the effects of the ridge to the east. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 30s. but RH readings will only be in the upper teens to the lower 20s.
515 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Crossing low pressure will spread a light wintry mix of precipitation along and south of Interstate 70 this morning. Filling low pressure emerging from the mid west is expected to generate a wintry precip. amounts are expected to remain light (<1/4 inch as per RFC), concern for a glaze of ice via freezing rain continues with strong warm advection indicated above the boundary layer, although that potential will at least initially be inhibited by wet-bulbing. The Winter Weather Advisory for an ice glaze over the ridges of WV and MD was thus expanded and includes counties along and south of I 70.
245 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Crossing low pressure will spread a light wintry mix of precipitation along and south of Interstate 70 this morning. Filling low pressure emerging from the mid west is expected to generate a wintry precip. amounts are expected to remain light (<1/4 inch as per RFC), concern for a glaze of ice via freezing rain continues with strong warm advection indicated above the boundary layer, although that potential will at least initially be inhibited by wet-bulbing. The Winter Weather Advisory for an ice glaze over the ridges of WV and MD was thus expanded and includes counties along and south of I 70.
The latest storm system which brought all the high wind to western Kansas yesterday continued to push away from the Central Plains, leaving in its wake broad, fairly weak surface ridging. An overall weak pressure gradient will result in continued light surface winds today, although by late afternoon, the western portions of southwest Kansas will see winds increasing to around 15 to 20 mph as the next leeside trough develops. Tonight, southeast winds will persist as the leeside trough remains in place as the next upper level storm system approaches the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will likely bottom out in the lower to mid 30s for lows as surface winds keep the boundary layer mixed just enough.
Locations that have the highest chance for precip with the front are in Southern Middle TN and NE AL. The trough currently digging along the West Coast/western Rockies will continue to be the focus of the forecast for the next 7 days. Tomorrow, the base of the trough will eject eastward and close off over the Central Plains, spawning cyclogenesis as it pushes into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley. Initially, this feature will prompt some showers and thunderstorms to spread across the Tennessee Valley Sunday night along a retreating warm front; while there's a pretty good chance of rain, there's good agreement on keeping the heaviest rain along the warm front just to the south.
Once this activity moves east across the area, warm frontal boundary will also track northeast and become quasi-stationary over east Kentucky into southwest Virginia for late this afternoon. Model soundings show most of the region becoming capped for this afternoon by a boundary layer inversion as southwesterly winds advect warmer 800-850mb air into the southern Appalachians. For late this afternoon and evening, upper trough over Kentucky will approach southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee.
123 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Expect continuation of quiet weather through Saturday as high pressure slides across the Upper Great Lakes. Went on lowest end of guidance for lows tonight with the high overhead and clear skies. Seems we could see lows into the lower single digits inland west. Coolest temps Saturday in the lower 30s will be found over the east near Lk Superior with light north winds and potential for some broken mid level clouds at times. Only real system early on is a weak backdoor cold front dropping across the area on Sunday as high pressure builds over Hudson Bay.
Upper low moving through the area will bring another unsettled day with chances of rain and mountain snow across portions of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert.
Waves continue to pinwheel into the region from the south around the slow moving Oregon low pressure system.
652 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather and a good amount of sunshine today. A weak cold front may produce a few flurries or light snow showers on Sunday.
A clear to mostly clear sky is expected with low temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Afternoon temperatures look to reach the upper 50s northeast to the low/mid 60s across the rest of the area under just a few high clouds. For Saturday night am expecting low temperatures in the low to mid 30s under slowly increasing cloudiness. Flow turns southwesterly aloft on Sunday as an upper trough moves into the Desert Southwest.
Clouds on the back side of the exiting low pressure system will move through that area. High pressure moves on by the region tonight with light winds and clear skies.
The upper low centered in Oregon will continue to move eastward, reaching southwest Idaho this afternoon. Showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms will accompany the upper low. A cold front will move in behind the low tonight through Sunday morning. Another round of snow showers is expected along the front, mixing with rain in the lower valleys. Snow accumulations will be light, except enhanced amounts are expected in the higher elevations of southwest Idaho. An upper level trough swings in from off the Oregon coastline at the beginning of the period bringing a slight chance of showers for our northern zones.
There is a nice mid level theta-e ridge over the area at this time which is moving east, and hence there is at least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon as the jet combines with the heating and likely sea-breeze.
Winds will be fairly light and variable as high pressure passes to our north. By Sunday, the trough that is currently over the far western U. Warm-air advection ahead of the system may allow for a few isolated showers Sunday afternoon, but better chances arrive as the upper low approaches the area Sunday evening.
The locations that are expected to have the highest fire danger will be Bent, Prowers, eastern Las Animas and Baca counties, and will therefore issue a Red Flag Warning for these locations for Sat. Temps on Sat will again be above average, with highs in the 60s over most of the plains, and in the 50s in the high valleys. Upper trough swings eastward from the Great Basin through the srn Rockies Sat night and Sun, then deepens into a closed low over the srn High Plains Sun night into Mon. Upper ridge builds for Tue/Wed, then next strong trough moves into the wrn U. Should see mild temps and relatively light winds under the ridge Tue/Wed, then increasing winds eastern zones and a chance for snow over the mountains Thu/Fri as system approaches the Rockies.
A large trough resides over northern California, Oregon, and Washington. A second smaller trough sets in southwest flow over the Dakotas, far northeastern Montana, and southern Alberta. this second smaller trough is what generated snow across the area this morning and is rapidly moving north in the southwest flow aloft. A meso ridge sets between the two troughs over western Montana and Wyoming. Today through tonight: Showers will lift out of far northeastern Montana by mid-day leaving a lot of low stratus, drizzle, and fog behind with some of it being freezing variety. The meso-ridge will enter aloft on southwest flow and force down left over moisture to the surface which will continue the low stratus through the overnight hours.
342 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather and a good amount of sunshine today. A weak cold front may produce a few flurries or light snow showers on Sunday.
Most of the hi-res models show most storms will develop north of our region during the afternoon hours, so the higher rain chances will be limited to the northern portions of Burnet, Llano and Williamson counties.
Assuming we see healthy breaks in the low stratus deck currently enveloping the area, temperatures should soar to near 80/low 80s today given the unseasonably high low level heights forecast and continued WAA.
The MVFR conditions will spread northeast to TYS and TRI this morning as a warm frontal boundary moves through the area. Elevated instabilitiy and warm frontal boundary passage will produce scattered showers and potential thunderstorms this morning.
340 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A brief period of light freezing rain will be possible across the far northern KILX CWA early this morning: however, with air temperatures hovering right at 32F and relatively warm/wet ground conditions, do not think icing will be a major problem. Any early morning freezing rain will quickly transition to rain as temps edge above freezing by 14z/9am. Once the upper low responsible for the precip shifts off to the east, subsidence on the back side of the low and a dry northerly flow will allow the clouds to slowly scatter from north to south tonight.
The disturbance moves out of the area by Sunday morning, but the region should anticipated scattered showers as the broad trough remains over the western United States.
A piece of energy from a large upper level low will move into western Montana today and overnight Saturday brining another round of snow to our mountains and areas north and west of Livingston and Roundup through the weekend. The main piece of energy from the upper level low will slide into eastern Colorado on Sunday afternoon but some mid-level lift in association with this feature will move into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas and kick off another round of snow along the Dakotas border Sunday evening. Expecting temperature to range from the low 40s along the mountain foothills to the mid 30s in eastern Montana through the weekend. Broad cyclonic flow with split troughs from the Oregon coast to Saskatchewan. The trough over Saskatchewan tracks east and the trough over Oregon weakens as ridging builds over the western CONUS by midweek.
350 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A broad swath of stratus extends from the upper low over Kansas City along an inverted trough to the northeast across central Nebraska into the Dakotas. This area of stratus is progged to move to the east as the upper low moves east today. Areas over north central Nebraska will be the last to clear with resultant cooler temperatures there only in the 30s this afternoon. Clear skies tonight with southeast winds ahead of upper trough to the west. Diffluence aloft over the Panhandle and upslope flow there is the possibility for some light mixed precipitation along the Pine Ridge.
A weak cold front may push into the Big Country this morning and stall near our Interstate 20 corridor.
1223 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Added a little more fog to the morning hours across the south central using the High res rapid refresh. Current satellite, radar, and surface weather observations show low clouds over extreme southwest North Dakota with pockets of very light snow and freezing drizzle. Chances for light snow and freezing drizzle continue through tonight, ending very early tomorrow morning.
Return southerly flow around departing high pressure over the Atlc will produce above normal temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s, except upper 70s at the beaches from the moderating effects of the sea breeze. Considerable dry air remains in the low levels so do not expect much of a cumulus field though there will be some mid and high clouds streaming overhead from the west.
331 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 THIS WEEKEND: We will remain under the influence of low level high pressure centered just to our east through the weekend. With the ridge axis just to our south, prevailing flow will veer more south- southwesterly, leading to a warmer and slightly more moist atmosphere. Afternoon highs will be closer to normal in the low to mid 80s.
With upper level ridging developing over the state later this Sat afternoon. Precip chances should remain limited due to the upper level ridging. an upper disturbance will rotate over the ridge aloft.
326 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 The weakening low pressure over Missouri continues to produce a few bands of light freezing rain and sleet over the area early this morning. We remain somewhat convectively unstable over central Iowa into southeast Iowa, where the upper low continues to bring very small thunderstorm/convective showers. Temperatures cooled to the lower 30s during the late evening precipitation. Though the impacts are rather minimal for most of the advisory as of 2 AM, the narrow bands of ongoing freezing rain/sleet will have me keeping the headlines going for the meantime. ERVIN Sunday High pressure over the Ohio Valley and Western Great Lakes will lead to a nice end to the weekend with dry conditions and highs in the lower 50s on average.
454 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Continued dry weather is expected today and tonight under a mid- level high pressure ridge. Highs today under mostly sunny skies will range from the mid to upper 30s east to the lower 50s southwest and south central. Only thing of note is that there could be an increase in clouds late tonight along an approaching cold front from Ontario. Confluent mid/upper level flow will support high pressure through nrn Ontario into the northern Great Lakes.
Far northeastern SD and western MN should see the most sun today with highs reaching the lower 40s. The models show a strong low pressure trough over the southwest U. along with a weak closed upper level low pressure area in southern Canada to begin the period.
An upper level trough stemming from Iowa out into the gulf will provide enough of a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop beginning around mid morning with the loss of daytime heating and upper support allowing the activity to wane by this evening. Forecast soundings show enough instability to at least mention the possibility of a stronger storm or two during the afternoon, but with a fairly high freezing level above 12k feet and very little shear, the most significant threat would be the possibility of some stronger winds. The approach of a second trough ejecting out of the desert southwest on Sunday will provide support for another round of scattered convection during the day.
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Upper circulation was located over south central Iowa at 07Z with radar showing precip dissipating rapidly over western Iowa on the backside of the low. By tonight mid level ridging will move into the region with warmer temperatures for Sunday. Another strong upper trough will be moving into the southern Rockies during the day on Sunday bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers by late afternoon to western parts of the area.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Northern Michigan was on the southerly end of upper troughing over New England, south of a moisture-starved frontal boundary draped from Maine to central Ontario. We remain on the srn fringe of the nrn jet stream, buried within some pretty dry air and high pressure. A weak area of low pressure develops on this frontal zone in SW Ontario this afternoon, which then crosses the nrn Great Lakes tonight. The front returns north of us as a warm front, but dives back into the region late tonight with the departure of the wave and low pressure. Again, the air mass is pretty dry, with minimal moisture associated with the low pressure. Highs today warming up very nicely in drier atmosphere, into the mid 30s in eastern upper, to the low to mid 40s along and south of M-72.
A weak upper level ridge will be passing across the area as it follows the trough that brought rain to the region yesterday. Temperatures will moderate to near 80 as heights increase from the upper ridge aloft. Meanwhile, an upper level trough is moving into and across the Pacific northwest. This feature will progress east across the lower Rockies on Sunday. Thunderstorm coverage will increase throughout the CWA as surface pressures begin dropping and lift along a pre- frontal trough swings through.
559 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A brief period of light freezing rain will be possible across the far northern KILX CWA early this morning: however, with air temperatures hovering right at 32F and relatively warm/wet ground conditions, do not think icing will be a major problem. Any early morning freezing rain will quickly transition to rain as temps edge above freezing by 14z/9am. Once the upper low responsible for the precip shifts off to the east, subsidence on the back side of the low and a dry northerly flow will allow the clouds to slowly scatter from north to south tonight.
405 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Early this morning an area of low pressure was positioned across Central Missouri with a cold front extending southwestward through Northwest Arkansas. the cold front is expected to push south of the CWA and become nearly stationary across Northern Texas. northerly winds 5-15 mph and cooler temperatures are forecast for the CWA with highs in the 60s/low 70s from north to south. which will help to lift the cold front back northward toward the Red River. The ECMWF continues to be the furthest south with the low moving through Northern Oklahoma while the GFS/NAM indicate the low moving through Southern Kansas.