Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MARINE MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ND TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
234 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN AL WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S COMPARED TO ARND 70 OVER SRN AL. ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. A BAND OF SHRA IN ASSOC/W A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THE CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. AS COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO JUST BELOW FREEZING. UPPER LOW WILL WORK ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY.
1142 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 9Z. POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE NE FOR SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER LOW NOW NORTH OF OUR FA. STILL EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THERE LATER TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
1037 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 06Z TAF issuance A prefrontal trough will move through the terminals over the next few hours increasing northwesterly winds. This will be followed by a strong cold front expected to arrive just before sunrise.
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK. FURTHER SOUTH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID-MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA.
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER OUR OWN LOCAL WEATHER EXCITEMENT WILL BE THE ANTICIPATED END TO OUR STREAK OF BELOW AVERAGE AND BELOW FREEZING WEATHER. UPPRE RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
EXTENDED TIMING ON FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING FOG IN RICHLAND COUNTY EARLIER TODAY AND WITH VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FREEZING FOG IN OTHER LOCATIONS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. ON THURSDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. EXPECT THE LOWER MISSOURI BREAKS. AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEE WARMER TEMPS.
COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES CHANGE TO FLURRIES AT THE TERMINALS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTERSECT THE REGION. THE OTHER IMPACT FOR US WILL BE A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS SURFACE WINDS THERE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH UNTIL LATER FRIDAY EVENING UNLIKE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A LEE TROF.
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE FINALLY SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT WITH SURFACE RIDING NUDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
During the short term, the upper level low currently over the Central Plains will continue to move eastward with a ridge of high pressure building over the Rockies behind it. Freezing fog or light freezing drizzle will be possible this morning, mainly across central and south central Kansas. This will be short lived as a cold front sweeps through the area shifting winds to more of a northwesterly direction. High pressure builds in behind this front tonight with decreasing cloudiness from west to east this evening through tonight. As for temperatures, highs today are expected to range from around freezing across central Kansas to lower 40s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows tonight are progged to dip into the lower teens with the exception of the counties along the KS/OK border where lows around 20 degrees will be found.
AT 1 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR NEAR THE UT- CO STATE LINE WITH HEAVY SNOW REPORTED NORTH OF THE ROAN- TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGHWAY 550 UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE WHERE GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MIDNIGHT. CHILLY START TO THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE. SO MADE EDITS TO BRING THOSE MIN TEMPS DOWN WHILE THE REGION IS UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE.
SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MAKING THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO START IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEN WE COULD GET SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ALOFT: SOME TEMPORARY PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WILL OCCUR AS THE PERSISTENT E PAC TROF MOVES ONSHORE SAT AND INTO THE CNTRL USA SUN- MON. THIS TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ERN USA BEYOND MON. WITH THE E PAC TROF/WRN N AMERICA RIDGE REDEVELOPING. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE SAT NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF. A PAC COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THRU SUN AS THIS LOW CONTS TO ORGANIZE OVER OK/KS. WPC HAS THIS LOW OVER CNTRL MO AT 12Z/MON WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND THE 00Z/12Z GEM. FRI: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON DEPARTURE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. BUT THE THERMAL TROF SHIFTING E IS A GOOD SIGN. COLD SECTOR WITH THERMAL TROF PASSING THRU. THIS WILL BRING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
232 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BI-CENTRIC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. A FAIRLY STRONG 800 WIND MAX IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. AFTER THE WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. A QUIETER AND WARMER TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. AS AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
Snow cover and high pressure ridge axis over the Midwest this afternoon creating some trouble in the short term forecast for tonight. Models had been persistent that the clouds would redevelop throughout the day, but the ridge has been efficiently suppressing the clouds to more scattered and occasionally broken.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND DEEPEN INTO A MAJOR STORM AS IT TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND LOWERS THE INVERSION FURTHER.
CURRENT OBS ARE ALL ABOVE FREEZING BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SO, HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG OVER ISOLATED/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS OVER AREA ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION, LOWERED POPS AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT (THROUGH 7 AM) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLY FREEZING FOG. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEEDED SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WITH SLIGHTLY 'WARMER' AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER NW AL.
IN AN LATE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE I HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS AS IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEEPENED OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE RAIN OR SNOW BUT COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEY AREAS FROM YAKIMA NORTHWARD. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MINIMAL AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT OR NEAR FREEZING SO IT IS NOT A SITUATION WHERE MUCH IF ANY ICE BUILD UP IS EXPECT ON THE ROADS. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. THOUGH FAR WESTERN AREAS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER IN THE MID-UPPER 20S.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TONIGHT OVER MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SUWANNEE RIVER AREA NEAR DAYBREAK.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE WARMER AIR STAYING TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AREAS WOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX MORE LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL.
306 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHEARS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
910 PM PST WED JAN 20 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
925MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY. MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
1156 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 AVIATION AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
1151 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z. SOME BR HAD FORMED OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS COLDER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW POTENTIAL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF NW WI IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT DISSOLVES AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE FURTHER SEWD THROUGH THE AREA.
429 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA 12Z-16Z. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING QPF VALUES INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHILE UPPER LOW PROJECTIONS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH A SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND ANOTHER WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE LOCAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED UP BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EVEN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 40S OVER MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH MID/UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE RESULT OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
945 PM PST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL CREATE DRY. WARMER WEATHER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT GRAZING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.
309 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR STORM AS IT TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH E TX SO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE STILL EXPERIENCING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. /ISSUED 548 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21/06Z.
Areas of light drizzle or freezing drizzle may persist through the night. After looking at the latest NAM forecast soundings, light snow and freezing drizzle seem like the best bet across far north Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas tonight. However, some heavier freezing rain/rain may also develop across these areas. With temperatures so close to freezing and still some uncertainty in the forecast will not issue and advisory at this time. however, a few pockets below the freezing mark will see freezing rain and possibly sleet.
THEREFORE WILL LET THE SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST COVER THE CURRENT SCENARIO. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG TO REMAIN AS SNOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MAINLY OUT WEST ON FRIDAY WITH MAYBE SOME LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS WEST OF THE RIVER.
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SPREADING OUT OF UTAH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN COLORADO AND STRONG UPPER JET STREAK WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. REMAINING MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING AS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. PLAINS/VALLEYS AND I25 CORRIDOR HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES AND COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THOUGH AGAIN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY. WINDS MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF CROSSING THE CENTRAL U. THE SUBSEQUENT TROF. ANTICIPATE THE LOW CLDS EXPANDING EWD OVERNIGHT AS WK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALLOWS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHIFT EWD. THE LOW CLDS WL PROBABLY STICK ARND A WHILE. BUILT THE MIN TEMP GRID WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS /WELL BLO GUIDANCE/ IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. ALSO INCLUDED A CHC OF FLURRIES WITH THE LOW CLDS. CLDS WL LINGER TOMORROW AS A WK COLD FRONT DROPS SWD INTO THE AREA.
1249 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
322 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 A SHORT WAVE WITH SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS/PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST WOULD BE A MIXTURE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE DO HAVE SOME LEFTOVER FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE. HOWEVER DID TRANSITION TO AN ADV GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LEANED TOWARD THE RUC13/ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THE SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON THE LOWS TONIGHT. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW AND EVENTUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. /ISSUED 539 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE MIDWEST WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH CLOUDY SKIES BUT DRY WEATHER FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
UPDATED SUTIE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THRU 21/15Z WITH SELECTED GRIDS MATCHING ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT FREEZING FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH DENSE FREEZING FOG BEING POSSIBLE BNA/CSV THRU 21/15Z. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BEDFORD-CANNON- CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON- FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-LAWRENCE- LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-PICKETT- PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
352 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHEARS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
945 PM PST WED JAN 20 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
In addition, there has been some fog generally east of an Abilene to Junction line this morning, so will keep a mention of fog in for southeastern locales as this fog should be pushed east of the Big Country by drier air moving in behind the cold front. The cold front will continue to move southeast tonight making it through the entire forecast area by around 7 AM this morning. Behind the cold front today, winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEEPENED OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE RAIN OR SNOW BUT COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEY AREAS FROM YAKIMA NORTHWARD. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MINIMAL AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT OR NEAR FREEZING SO IT IS NOT A SITUATION WHERE MUCH IF ANY ICE BUILD UP IS EXPECT ON THE ROADS. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRI AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ON SAT. A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DVLP ON FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN ON SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RISE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER ACROSS NERN CO WHILE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE WHERE SNOW COVER LINGERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-76. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AS WELL. ON WED DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER ERN CO. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW OCCURS ACROSS NERN CO.
ALSO NO REPORTS YET OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY DEPOSITION OR EVEN VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FOG AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF OUR CWA. INDICATING POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EASTERN CWA (TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SURFACE TEMPS). DURING AN EARLIER UPDATE I ADDED FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE MENTION AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON AT THIS POINT TO STRAY FROM THIS FORECAST. COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH MIST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA PROVIDING WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
830 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE STARTED COMING IN. FOR TONIGHT WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. LEAD WAVE FROM WEST COAST TROUGH WILL LIFT NE WEDNESDAY.
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
715 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER AS IT TRANSFORMS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
77 /ISSUED 142 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/ RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WAS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT COLD TEMPS AGAIN WITH MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S UNDER CLR SKIES. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AND LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PROGRESS INLAND DURING WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE ROGUE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS, SO KEPT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY LOW FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN OREGON EXCEPT FOR THE COAST AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS IS WHEN SNOW RATES WILL BE THE HIGHEST AROUND 0. SO COMPACTION DUE TO WINDS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW RATIOS MAY THROW THE FORECAST OFF AND PUT SNOW TOTALS ON THE LOWER SIDE. FOR THE FORECAST DURING WEDNESDAY,USED A SNOW RATIO OF 10:1, BUT LOWER SNOW RATIOS DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND WIND COMPACTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND.
528 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 CURRENTLY A VAST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE BEING THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ALL POSSIBLE WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THRU 12Z. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FREEZING DRIZZLE.