Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
129 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tonight and Tuesday: Dry and slightly warmer. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1026mb high over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys that was ridging back to the southwest across our CWA. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the CWA again. There will be a few more clouds around Tuesday but enough insolation to help temperatures top out a degree or two warmer than today and above normal again.
The warm front is starting o press into our eastern CWA while mild late evening temperatures in the 50s linger. Clear skies are prevailing with stalled frontal zone still to our west that will eventually shift east as a warm front later tonight. The main impact in the short term will be a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, bringing a wind switch to the northwest and gusty winds. Look for cooler highs in the Devils Lake region, with 70s expected in the Valley and points eastward.
319 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 High pressure will continue to build across the area through Wednesday.
Winds will generally be form a southerly direction through tomorrow as a trough of low pressure sits along the KS/CO border. This will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area Tuesday night. Upper level ridging then builds west of the area through this weekend with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface.
Overnight lows will be warmer along the Coteau because of the breezy conditions. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. A deep, reinforcing upper trough will move in just behind the front, as well. These expected values are on the high end of guidance, too, as used NBM 90th to capture the caa forcing. Generally, there is very little low level or mid level moisture to work with, but cooler evening/overnight temps and the additional push from the ample energy in the upper trough could result in a sprinkle or light shower, especially across the east. The highest RH in the mid levels is around 80%, but the lower levels max out at around 50% RH so it is more likely that any precip that does fall would evaporate before hitting the ground.
As a weak, upper-level low pressure system situates itself off the southern California coast and a longwave trough pushes through the Midwest, expect west-northwest afternoon breezes with drier air moving in for Tuesday.
Tomorrow a stronger wave and associated cold front will have a more significant impact on the forecast area. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday morning/afternoon from northwest to southeast, bringing CAA and strong winds. Limited moisture with this cold front, but a few light showers still may be possible for northeastern WY, the Black Hills and southwestern SD. Though not as strong as Tuesday's cold front, strong upper level winds combined with good mixing will allow for advisory or even high wind warning criteria in some areas. A sharp cold front will cross the region on Tuesday morning, followed by gusty northwest winds (30-40kts+), especially on the plains of northwestern South Dakota.
120 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Canadian high pressure centered over the area will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
Attention then turns to an upper trough rapidly diving southeastward into the Northern/Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front approaching the CWA around midnight tonight. While a brief period of gusty winds may mix down to the surface through the low-level inversion in the most robust storms, overall instances should remain isolated. Temperatures will trend cooler as a highly amplified upper trough meanders around the Great Lakes, proving dry/cool northwest flow for our region.
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) For the first time in about a month, the region has finally transitioned back to a light SErly bndry lyr flow, as the sfc ridging over the TN valley SW into the Lower MS Valley has begun to retreat E of the region. The current forecast min temps reflects the lower end of guidance, which should work out as the elevated cigs will not be spreading deeper into E TX/NW LA/Srn AR until late, which should provide enough time to radiate out given the very light SE flow.
The eastward shift of these features will produce a more southerly to southwesterly flow across the TN Valley region this period, which will warm temperatures into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon, and lows tonight mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The low level moisture advection and weak isentropic lift will bring a little more cloud cover, starting with scattered clouds this afternoon to broken/overcast tonight.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Latest radar imagery shows showers and storms are moving through the Lower Trans Pecos and will be off to the east by sunrise Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, the long wave trough will start to push to the east across the northern US. A cold front will move across West Texas and reinforce drier conditions.
332 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Currently at the surface, broad high pressure north of Florida will support easterly winds today, with moderate low level moisture supporting isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Additionally, the low level moisture will lead to a few patches of fog over the Nature Coast this morning.
Tonight The low pressure trough to our north will push close to our area, which will cause a cold front to move across the region this evening, shifting winds to the north and bringing gusts from the I- 25 corridor eastward as high as 25 to 30 MPH, highest winds being in the eastern plains, until the early morning hours. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s along the I-25 corridor eastward and in the high 20s to low 30s in the mountains and mountain valleys, and the San Luis Valley will have a night of freezing temperatures of 2 hours or more before sunrise, necessitating a freeze warning early Wednesday morning.
Water vapor imagery depicts a plume of moisture embedded within this flow pattern, coincident with broad but modest WAA ahead of a deepening trough currently over southern Canada and stretching into MT. By Tuesday and Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper trough will dig into the northern Plains with the trough axis extending south towards coastal TX. A cold front will begin sweeping through the Plains states and arrive in NW AR by Wednesday evening.
Upper level ridge off the coast will begin nudging towards the Pacific Northwest today.
An upper ridge will rebuild over the region this week for dry weather with above normal temperatures.
957 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 High pressure will continue to build across the area through Wednesday.
649 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 High pressure will continue to build across the area through Wednesday.
Surface analysis places a broad area of low pressure, a partial spawn of the remnants of Julia, spinning cyclonically over the Bay of Campeche. Two high pressure centers, one over the Mid-Atlantic and another in the vicinity of the Azores, continue to promote moderate northeast to east breezes across the Florida Peninsula. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all the Florida Keys, and boaters should allow more slack in spring and dock lines, and be mindful of less clearance under fixed bridges during high tide. From synopsis, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will maintain moderate easterly breezes this afternoon and tonight. Breezes will slacken and gradually veer to the southeast Wednesday and Wednesday night, as the high slides further offshore into the western North Atlantic.
Then after a brief lull this evening, additional showers and thunderstorms are likely late tonight into Wednesday as a cold front pushes through.
Attention then turns to an upper trough rapidly diving southeastward into the Northern/Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front approaching the CWA around midnight tonight. While a brief period of gusty winds may mix down to the surface through the low-level inversion in the most robust storms, overall instances should remain isolated. Temperatures will trend cooler as a highly amplified upper trough meanders around the Great Lakes, proving dry/cool northwest flow for our region. Aft 07Z-09Z a cold front will approach the terminals bringing the chc for lgt tsra reducing vsbys to 4SM-5SM however cigs should remain VFR around 5kft. Winds will be out of the south btn 12-18kts with gusts around 25kts thru most of the pd until the cold front approaches the TAF sites btn 07Z-09Z veering the wind to the W and then NW.
325 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 IR Satellite imagery this morning shows plenty of high clouds over Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming in response to a strong jet streak and surface cold front. Some high clouds will also drift overhead but with a 110kt jet streak supporting the cold front, these will move overhead fairly quickly. Looking to Wednesday, the cold front will have raced eastward to the Great Lakes region while another Rex Block sets up off the West Coast. Low pressure over southern California will remain stationary while northwesterly flow sets up across our CWA.
417 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A cold front over northeastern Montana is forecast to move through the region this morning through this afternoon. Lift associated with an upper level trough will likely bring sprinkles to the western portion of the state. Wind will increase with the frontal passage, however the strongest winds are expected to lag behind until the pressure gradient moves trough later this morning into the afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 50s in the northwest while the southeast could reach the lower 70s ahead of the front. Subsidence on the backside of the trough accompanied with an 80 kt 500 mb jet maxima will lead to wide spread advisory level winds across the western Dakotas.
The dry and quiet weather is set to continue for the rest of the week as high pressure remains in control of the weather.
510 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 IR Satellite imagery this morning shows plenty of high clouds over Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming in response to a strong jet streak and surface cold front. Some high clouds will also drift overhead but with a 110kt jet streak supporting the cold front, these will move overhead fairly quickly. Looking to Wednesday, the cold front will have raced eastward to the Great Lakes region while another Rex Block sets up off the West Coast. Low pressure over southern California will remain stationary while northwesterly flow sets up across our CWA.
A high- amplitude mid-upper trough will begin to swing southward from Canada and into the northern Plains (and eventually across the Great Lakes) over the next few days. Highs are likely to remain in the low-to-mid 70s within, and near 80 for areas outside of the wedge demarcation.
Broad high pressure continues to stretch from the mid-Atlantic states southwestward to the northern gulf coast. Similar to the past couple of days, rain chances will remain relatively low with only a 20-40 percent chance of showers possible, with the highest coverage over the interior and southwest Florida. Broad high pressure ridging across the southeast U.
717 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Aviation - Warmth Ahead of Next System - Temperatures will be warmer than normal today as southerly winds become breezy ahead of our next system approaching from the southwest. Highs in the low 70s can be expected with increasing clouds into the afternoon. Additional shower and storm activity is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening as the approaching trough and its associated cold front arrives.
Water vapor imagery this morning clearly showed short wave ridging moving into the area from the west out ahead of an upper low off the soCal coast. Dry conditions area wide Wed thru Fri as the upper low meanders off/along the soCal coast with ridging over the area. This will allow temperatures to warm up with readings in the lower 90s Thu/Fri across the lower deserts.
A stronger upper-lvl trough will move southeast across north-central TX, dragging its associated cold front over SETX late Wed night.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the East Pacific is extending eastward across the western states. The nice coastal weather will be short lived however as weak low pressure is then forecast to develop offshore on Wednesday, with weak southerlies developing along the coastal waters and bringing a return of coastal low clouds and fog from the south northward.
Currently at the surface, broad high pressure north of Florida will support easterly winds today, with moderate low level moisture supporting isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Additionally, the low level moisture will lead to a few patches of fog over the Nature Coast this morning.
623 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Latest radar imagery shows showers and storms are moving through the Lower Trans Pecos and will be off to the east by sunrise Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, the long wave trough will start to push to the east across the northern US. A cold front will move across West Texas and reinforce drier conditions.
/26 (Now through Wednesday Night) A large upper trof evolves over the central states today then amplifies significantly into a 5-Wave scale trof over the eastern half of the CONUS through Wednesday night. The front then begins to decelerate Wednesday afternoon (as the upper trof continues to amplify) and looks to weakly move through the forecast area late Wednesday night. As the cold front moves through the area Wednesday night, the nocturnal timing means instability will be rather limited although model soundings show significant drying above 700 mb. Highs on Wednesday range from the mid to upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s for the remainder of the area.
Warming trend to continue with overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 60s areawide tonight. A cold front will move across the region on Wednesday afternoon bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Overnight lows forecast to range from the lower 50s across southeast Oklahoma to the mid 60s across portions of north Louisiana as cool high pressure rebuilds behind the front.
It's not a gross amount, but it should be enough to raise dew points into the low 60s by tomorrow afternoon -- something we haven't seen in quite awhile -- ahead of an approaching frontal system. With dew points in the low 60s, CAPE values in the 500-800 J/Kg range should be attainable. Curvature in the lowest parts of forecast hodographs MIGHT even suggest rotation, so we will need to watch for that, but I still think damaging winds, along with some hail (6.
- Warmth Ahead of Next System - Temperatures will be warmer than normal today as southerly winds become breezy ahead of our next system approaching from the southwest. Highs in the low 70s can be expected with increasing clouds into the afternoon. Additional shower and storm activity is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening as the approaching trough and its associated cold front arrives.
However, additional showers and storms will be possible late tonight as a cold front moves to near the Kansas/Oklahoma border by 12z Wednesday. (Wednesday through Tuesday) The potential for showers and storms will persist through Wednesday morning as the cold front moves swiftly across the area. Behind the cold front, fire weather concerns will ramp up as dry air surges into the region.
401 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and move through Wednesday night.
High pressure will influence the region for the end of the week as temperatures warm.
Attention then turns to an upper trough rapidly diving southeastward into the Northern/Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front approaching the CWA around midnight tonight. While a brief period of gusty winds may mix down to the surface through the low-level inversion in the most robust storms, overall instances should remain isolated. Temperatures will trend cooler as a highly amplified upper trough meanders around the Great Lakes, proving dry/cool northwest flow for our region. These gusts are expected to decrease this evening, ahead of a cold front moving through overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along cold front, with the possibility of a few thunderstorms developing ahead along a prefrontal trough.
Discussion: Milder weather tonight as southwesterly flow ahead of the incoming trough keeps temperatures warmer than they have been.
Meanwhile a stronger trough has moved into the Northern Plains and will send a cold front into the region Wednesday. This will likely not affect temperatures much with highs actually a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow.
1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Current temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70 across most of the Midsouth and should make it into the low to middle 80s across the Midsouth this afternoon.
245 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The nose of a 120 kt 250 mb jet on the western periphery of a deepening trough across the northern Plains continues to punch into northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. Associated with this wave is a strong surface cold front that is now beginning to move through the northern third of the CWA.
Weak troughs will pass through this flow providing convergence for shower formation this afternoon into Tonight. Lows Tonight will range from the upper 60s inland, to the lower 70s coast.
A large upper level through will track across the Great Plains tonight into Wednesday morning, sending a cold front into the Big Country Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front, overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.
1118 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Latest radar imagery shows showers and storms are moving through the Lower Trans Pecos and will be off to the east by sunrise Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, the long wave trough will start to push to the east across the northern US. A cold front will move across West Texas and reinforce drier conditions.
132 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 High pressure will continue to build across the area through Wednesday.
At the surface, a strong cold front has just moved through the forecast area, and strong pressure rises 3-4 mb/3 hr have brought windy conditions into the region. A secondary cold front will moves through the region Wednesday, bringing another round of strong winds.
A cold front that moved across western and central North Dakota has brought gusty northwest winds to the entire forecast area.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The main focus of the short term period will be on a weak cold front moving into the CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening. The main upper level feature to focus on will be the deep, longwave trough moving from the Canadian Prairies into the northern U. Plains as its associated cold front will be the one moving into south central TX later in the day tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon should be mostly clear, warm, and dry with highs much above average in the upper 80s to mid and possibly upper 90s in some of the warmer locations.
306 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Key Point: - Areas of showers and thunderstorms (a few strong to severe possible) as a cold front moves through tonight.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) High pressure continues to push east, leading to the return of onshore flow for Southeast Texas. Also with the earlier timing of the FROPA, cold air advection behind the front has more time to cool off our temperatures, so I nudged overnight lows down a few degrees on Wednesday night with lows reaching the low to mid 60s north of Conroe and the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
The general longwave pattern continues to be troughing that persists over the southwestern U. In conjunction with this longwave shifting eastward is ridging that will build over southern AZ that will lead to a drying and warming trend through the end of the week.
1142 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 IR Satellite imagery this morning shows plenty of high clouds over Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming in response to a strong jet streak and surface cold front. Some high clouds will also drift overhead but with a 110kt jet streak supporting the cold front, these will move overhead fairly quickly. Looking to Wednesday, the cold front will have raced eastward to the Great Lakes region while another Rex Block sets up off the West Coast. Low pressure over southern California will remain stationary while northwesterly flow sets up across our CWA.
Similar to the past couple of days, rain chances will remain relatively low with only a 20-30 percent chance of showers possible, with the highest coverage over the interior and southwest Florida.
1043 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Current temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70 across most of the Midsouth and should make it into the low to middle 80s across the Midsouth this afternoon.
Showers rising northeastward ahead of the main trough and cold front well to our west. Should be a mild night with the higher dew points/clouds/southerly winds keeping temps from dropping off too much. As front approaches the areas later tonight into Wednesday morning and the DCVA associated with the approaching mid level trough, we will see additional chances of shra/tsra in one or more lines.
KBYX radar has detected isolated passing showers across the coastal waters today, mainly west of the Lower Keys, but very few of these showers have led to measurable rainfall at the island communities.
230 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Upper trough axis extended north to south east of the Front Range this afternoon. A cold front was located south of a Douglas to Torrington to Alliance line. These strong wind gusts have diminished somewhat as the low level height gradients have begun to relax and cloud cover limits low level mixing. Therefore, the High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire at 3 PM, with gusts up to 55 mph possible until the frontal passage. The cold front will push south of the CWA by early this evening with showers quickly ending. 700mb temperatures Wednesday will be 5 degrees cooler with afternoon highs in the mid 50s north of the Platte River Valley, to the mid 60s south. It will feel cooler with gusty northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph.
As of 3 pm, the cold front had passed through the Grand Forks area, and was also just passing through the Fargo-Moorhead area. Wind speeds behind the front in some of the higher elevations west of the Valley have been flirting with wind advisory criteria. Areas west of the Valley should have the lowest humidities Wednesday afternoon, but they are not quite to near critical ranges at this point.
Rain chances will continue to increase during the day tomorrow, becoming categorical during the evening as a cold front approaches from the west.
1129 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The weather will turn a bit more active day as a cold front now slicing it's way through Montana approaches and moves through the Cowboy State today. The front will bring cooler temperatures as well, mainly East of the Divide, but nothing unusual for the middle of October. With the slow moving pattern settling in across the US, WY will be pinned between the large trough spinning across the Northern Plains and the blocking ridge along the west coast.
A developing upper level trough near the Pacific Northwest will be digging south and amplifying as it moves east across the country through the next 24 hours. At the same time, upper and lower level ridge near the local area will be shifting east. 8" in place as that trough moves in. Shear values drop farther south as you get farther away from the base of the trough.
143 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A few showers popped up this afternoon over central parts of the area due to vorticity in the upper trough moving through the area. Another lobe of vorticity will swing S tonight in the western edge of the trough, accompanied by some frontogenesis, and a small chance of showers.
This warm air advection will help to warm high temperatures a few degrees into the low to mid 80s areawide. South winds will remain elevated allowing for slightly elevated overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
439 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A cold front is currently pushing south across Wyoming, mainly east of the Divide. To the East of WY a deep trough will continue to dig down across the eastern US, while to the West a high pressure ridge will begin to settle in.