Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will then briefly build in. Low pressure will move through the region Saturday night with high pressure following in its wake. Trough axis aloft shifting through Ohio is driving open-cellular snow showers and squalls across the eastern half of Ohio and points east. But with the lower level instability, a snow shower or flurry is possible just about everywhere. Lingering clouds in central Ohio will clear during the evening as high pressure builds in. The high will move off to the east on Saturday as a compact low pressure system approaches. Expect good radiational cooling conditions tonight allowing lows to fall below freezing. A quick warm up will occur on Saturday but highs in the lower to mid 50s will still be nearly 5 degrees below normal.
Scattered snow showers will continue through early evening as an upper trough axis completes its passage. Steep low level lapse rates enhancing lift should result in pockets of heavier snow showers/graupel, though warm road temps and air temperatures above freezing outside of the higher terrain should limit impacts. Look for cloud coverage to increase significantly during the afternoon due to moist advection aloft ahead of the next crossing trough.
1012 AM MDT Fri Apr 1 2022 A tranquil day is expected today as warmer air moves into the area. - Moldan 540 AM MDT Fri Apr 1 2022 (01/12Z TAF period) VFR conditions will continue as upper level ridge passes overhead. /ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Apr 1 2022/ Friday will be a relatively tranquil day across the area as weak upper level ridging traverses the area. As this ridge moves overhead, westerly winds will bring downsloping winds to most of the area, resulting in high temperatures near to slightly warmer than they were yesterday.
Upper ridging moves into the middle of the country this weekend, with dry conditions expected and temperatures moderating into the mid 50s to upper 60s both days.
358 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Plenty of clouds stretching from southwestern MN to south central SD as a cold front slowly moves eastward. Some snow may mix in as temps fall below freezing, but generally expect little to no accumulations. The wave skirts off to the east by mid/late morning Saturday, as flat ridging and zonal flow build in by mid day Saturday, bringing clearing skies and temperatures a few degrees either side of climatological norms (in the 50s). Clouds increase as the next wave shoves flat ridging off to the east.
With such low freezing levels, small graupel is a good possibility with any moderate showers. There could even be a couple rumbles of thunder and localized graupel given the low freezing levels. Showers will decrease into the evening, with high pressure building over the region.
140 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers/flurries will continue to diminish as upper/surface ridging build into the area, with associated decreases in subsidence inversion heights. That will be replaced by subsidence/ drying this morning as the upper low opens up and accelerates eastward.
Based on CAMs and radar trends, ongoing shower activity will linger across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas through early evening then dissipate west to east as a cold front moving into the region pushes farther southeast into northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. Under plenty of sunshine, expect afternoon highs ranging from the 60s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas. Saturday with the departing high pressure center we should see winds turn back to the south and increase during the afternoon with a developing low pressure center in southeast Colorado.
As the trough continues to move east, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase and allow showers to spread east across the CWA into the evening hours, ending from west to east early Saturday morning.
1252 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 (Today and tonight) A mid/upper trough currently moving across the Rockies will move into and across the Plains later today and tonight. However, the trough is expected to bring some mid-level moisture to the region. The drier low levels will likely lead to inverted V soundings this afternoon/evening that could cause some damaging wind gusts with some of the high based showers/storms, mainly in western portions of the fa. The rain is expected to move out of the fa late tonight/early Saturday as the mid/upper trough begins to exit the region.
This has brought an inverted trough into western KS with a tightening pressure gradient resulting in breezy conditions today. Heading into this evening and overnight, the mid-level trough axis will move across the area, bringing light rain showers. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air in the low levels initially with saturation occurring in the mid-levels first as clouds move overhead. Morning lows are forecast in the 30s for the western half of the CWA and in the low 40s for the east, as this system brings a weak frontal boundary through the area overnight.
A tranquil day is expected today as warmer air moves into the area.
Saturday night will be another mostly clear and chilly night in the wake of the cold front.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a weak ridge of high pressure moving into WI, allowing for a brief return of sunshine to the forecast area. The cold front is expected to reach the MN/WI border by daybreak as the trough intensifies across the Midwest. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with max temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 40s.
Further north confidence is lower in rain hitting the ground do to drier air in the low levels, could still see some light rain in some areas, but virga may be an issue as well. By Saturday the trough will be off to our east and we have a quiet weather day between weather systems.
Shallow ridging is now building in and will lead to a very pleasant Saturday with plenty of sunshine to be had though there will be a bit more cloud cover over the higher terrain.
Winds will be calm and variable overnight, and low temperatures will range from the upper 40s in SE GA to the lower 60s in North Central FL.
An upper ridge flattens out tomorrow across Nebraska with warmer temperatures remaining.
1217 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 High pressure will exit to the east of the terminals as a weak upper level system approaches. High pressure at the surface will shift eastward today, with temperatures warming back into the 60s in most areas as winds regain a southerly component. Clouds will increase tonight, as a weak cold front approaches the region. The boundary will move through during the overnight hours, along with an upper level trough pushing it eastward. This will be short-lived, however, as high pressure pushes the systems eastward during the day Saturday, rain chances ending, and temperatures warming back up quickly.
1118 AM MDT Fri Apr 1 2022 The eastward propagating trough continued to push across the forecast area early this morning. Lift ahead of the trough kept snow going over the central and southern mountains with rain showers in the lower elevations below 7500 feet. Models indicated the trough axis will move east of the Continental Divide by sunrise. A low amplitude transitory ridge builds over the West tonight and will remain over the forecast area Saturday.
Early this evening a cold front will begin to move through the region, with an associated NW/N wind shift as it progresses southward through area terminals. (Today through Saturday afternoon) An upper trough is over the Great Lakes region with another over the Rocky Mountains. The upper trough over the Rocky Mountains will move over the central part of the country by this evening. A cold front will move into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Friday night as the upper trough moves over the region. This will result in low temperatures Friday night ranging from the lower 30s in northern Lea County to near 60 degrees along the Big Bend. Temperatures on Saturday will be a little cooler as a result of the front with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.
With precipitation holding off until after 18Z and ending by Midnight, and projected highs in the lower to mid 40s, p-type should favor more rain than snow. However the height of the web bulb zero is right around 1500 ft so we may see some wet snow mixing in at times, especially across the higher elevations north of GR and across the Irish Hills around JXN in the cooler evening hours before the system exits to the east.
Scattered snow and rain/snow mixed showers will slowly taper off through this evening as the upper level trough exits east and high pressure builds in from the west. Gusty afternoon wind will also subside tonight with building high pressure which, combined with a clearing sky and peak cold advection, will help promote below average overnight temperature. Slight wet-bulbing given near sfc dry air is aiding precipitation type to remain mostly snow for most locations, with the mix primarily for the lowest elevations at at shower onset. Look for cloud coverage to increase significantly during the afternoon due to moist advection aloft ahead of the next crossing trough.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Arklatex region with lee troughing starting to strengthen. There is decent agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in a more robust trough starting to dig across the Northern Rockies and will begin to close off over the Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley by late Tue night. This will bring increased precip chances Tue night along with cooler and windy conditions for Wed through Thu.
119 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Aviation Water vapor shows the upper low is located over wrn Lk Erie at this time. - Snow Diminishes then High Pressure Leads to A Quiet Friday - Troughing will continue to exit to our east into New England as ridging across the northern plains slides into the Great Lakes.
319 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 H5 analysis from earlier today had a closed low along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A trough extended south of this feature into southern Colorado. East of this feature, ridging extended from southern Minnesota into western Ontario. East of this ridging, a trough of low pressure extended from eastern Hudson bay, south into the Carolinas. Ridging was also noted along the Pacific northwest states. This ridging extended north into northern British Columbia. Further west, low pressure was located over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a cold front extended from just east of North Platte to the O'Neill area. The H5 trough axis will move east of the forecast area by late evening. Behind the exiting trough of low pressure, high pressure will build into the area toward 12z Saturday.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 67 44 67 42 / 0 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 64 43 64 40 / 0 10 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 63 42 65 40 / 0 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 63 40 61 36 / 0 10 10 10 0 TN.
Upper level ridge breaks down tonight as the next upper level trough and cold front approach the region. The trough will remain to our north as it moves eastward across the panhandle on Saturday. Along with showers across Baker County Saturday morning and the West Central Mountains of Idaho Saturday afternoon, the cold front will bring gusts northwest winds to Southwest Idaho. The trough exits the region Saturday night with another weak ridge developing behind the exiting system.
210 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 High pressure overhead will continue through most of the night resulting in clear skies and light winds. The upper level pattern shows a longwave trough over most of the eastern US resulting in northwest flow.
305 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 High pressure will build across the region through Saturday afternoon, before moving offshore Saturday night.
Meanwhile, a lee cyclone over the Central Plains will drag a weak surface cold frontal boundary into the area overnight as it pushes northeastward. Nonetheless, it should still be a warm but generally pleasant day with highs reaching the lower 80s at most locations and overnight lows in the 50s/lower 60s.
355 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 The axis of a deep upper level trough and cold pool of air aloft will drift northeast across the St. Lawrence River Valley tonight followed by an area of high pressure and tranquil weather on Saturday.
Broad upper trough continues to rotate through the Plains States. Tomorrow should be fairly quiet and a bit cooler with weak high pressure over the Plains and brief upper ridging between systems.
At the surface, high pressure builds in over the eastern half of the U. Meanwhile, a cold front stalled well offshore over the Gulf of Mexico will begin lifting northward. Lows tonight will range from the low 40s north to the mid 50s along the coast.
There is deep moisture and ample lift associated with the trough that widespread precipitation is a given, however, amounts will be limited by the relatively narrow nature and progressive movement of the trough. At this time it appears the most likely areas to see cold enough temperatures and a change to snow are in our northeastern third or so, but with temperatures hovering just above freezing, uncertainty in precipitation type is high. Precipitation will move out quickly around or just after sunrise Saturday morning, with temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 50s across much of the area during the afternoon.
Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures are expected today with even warmer temperatures and breezy south winds slated for Saturday.
Weak high pressure remains over the Northern Rockies, but moisture riding over the ridge will continue to cause cloud cover in most of western Montana. The next weather system is entering the Pacific Northwest, and there is very good model agreement for the associated cold front to pass through central Idaho and western Montana during Saturday. Winds will increase with the cold front passage on Saturday, with a greater than 90 percent probability of wind gusts over 25 mph.
As expected, the cloud cover is starting to thin out this afternoon as the trough pulls away to the east. Weak upper level ridging builds in overnight but doesn't last long. A weak wave and surface cold front approaches from the west on Saturday and crosses Eastern KY Saturday night. Hi-res guidance tries to show some light precip across the area Saturday afternoon, however model soundings show the lower levels remaining dry, so while some sprinkles or a brief light shower are possible, most of the area will remain dry through the afternoon. Warmer temps expected on Saturday, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. The first of these waves impacts the region late Saturday night, as it supports a small, weak area of low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley to our north.
As expected, the cloud cover is starting to thin out this afternoon as the trough pulls away to the east. Weak upper level ridging builds in overnight but doesn't last long. A weak wave and surface cold front approaches from the west on Saturday and crosses Eastern KY Saturday night. Hi-res guidance tries to show some light precip across the area Saturday afternoon, however model soundings show the lower levels remaining dry, so while some sprinkles or a brief light shower are possible, most of the area will remain dry through the afternoon. Warmer temps expected on Saturday, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The low clouds are generally expected to decrease in coverage into the afternoon, but at least partly cloudy skies should continue, especially as high clouds push in from the west. Adjusted today's high temperatures a tad cooler due to the robust cloud cover this morning, but highs are still forecast to be in the upper 40s/near 50 today. Thanks to southerly winds ahead of the low and its associated cold front, high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 50s across the southern half of the CWA.
234 PM MDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis depict an upper low currently centered over central Manitoba with trough axis extending southward through into the southern High Plains. Trough axis continues to pivot eastward through the forecast area this afternoon.
Upper trough which brought scattered snow showers to the area continues to move eastward and we should see a continued decline in snow coverage as we go into the evening hours. A transitory upper ridge should help to keep the overnight hours free of precipitation and allow skies to clear. This ridge quickly slides eastward as an elongated trough, with embedded vort maxes, moves across the Plains and into the Midwest Saturday morning. While we will see cloud cover increase as this troughing approaches, the onset of precip looks to be delayed until closer to midday given a fair dry layer around 850-800mb. Rain spreads across the area Saturday afternoon before coming to an end early Saturday night as the main trough moves into the northeastern US.
243 PM MDT Fri Apr 1 2022 A few light showers finally showed up at the surface this afternoon from what had been mostly virga from high cloud bases through this morning through mid-day as the upper trough was moving across the forecast area. By early afternoon the cold front had pushed mostly through the forecast area with northwest winds gusting to 40 mph being pretty common in the wake of the front. Expect the system to continue east of the area tonight with high pressure moving in at the surface and an upper ridge moving over the area on Saturday.
Expect diurnal temperature patterns to fluctuate around freezing. A brief period of high pressure has led to a sunny, rapidly warming day here in the Northland. Clouds move back in this evening and overnight as an upper level trough with a weak jet moves over the Midwest generating a broad area of weak low pressure from Iowa to Ontario. Thermal profiles do not support any significant freezing rain, but up to an inch of snow may be possible over Price and southeast Sawyer counties by 7AM tomorrow.
Short Term Update - Through the overnight, as the mainland cools, sloppy broad ridging will build eastward out of the Gulf of Mexico across Florida. The lower level ridge axis stretching westward from the Atlantic will hold on across our area, maintaining light east to southeasterly to south flow. Broad weak ridging building across Florida will result in light winds becoming more uniformly east to southeasterly across Keys waters.
928 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 High pressure will build across the region through Saturday afternoon, before moving offshore Saturday night.
618 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 H5 analysis from earlier today had a closed low along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A trough extended south of this feature into southern Colorado. East of this feature, ridging extended from southern Minnesota into western Ontario. East of this ridging, a trough of low pressure extended from eastern Hudson bay, south into the Carolinas. Ridging was also noted along the Pacific northwest states. This ridging extended north into northern British Columbia. Further west, low pressure was located over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a cold front extended from just east of North Platte to the O'Neill area. The H5 trough axis will move east of the forecast area by late evening. Behind the exiting trough of low pressure, high pressure will build into the area toward 12z Saturday.
Will allow the High Rip current risk to expire at 00z Saturday given a change in the sea state (based on nearby buoys) to a condition not supportive of a High Risk.
Given light winds/clear skies/drier air, expect chilly overnight min temps, and most areas will fall below freezing by sunrise Sat. As a result, sly winds will develop on the plain ahead of the trough, with some afternoon gusts 20-30 mph possible, especially near the KS border. Farther west, given deep mixing and slow increase in 700 mb winds, expect gusty conditions in the afternoon most higher terrain west of I-25, and some gusts 35-45 mph possible across higher exposed ridges/peaks.
A pleasant Saturday ahead w/ H7 temperatures climbing above 0 C beneath the transitory ridge helping to support widespread highs in the 60s F, especially along/east of the Laramie Range.
1022 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Weak high pressure will build across the region tonight allowing winds to diminish. This dry air will help temperatures radiate into the low to mid 20s for the mountains, with readings hovering around freezing for the foothills and Piedmont. Winds are gusting in the 20-30mph range and the higher elevations are seeing gusts topping 40mph at times. Winds will continue through the late afternoon and into early evening, eventually relaxing overnight as the pressure gradient diminishes and high pressure begins to move overhead. May have a few spots in sheltered high elevation valley locations decouple by early Saturday morning allowing for temperatures to reach the lower 20s.
Weak high pressure moves to the east and zonal flow will prevail with VFR conditions.
High pressure overhead will continue through most of the night resulting in clear skies and light winds. The upper level pattern shows a longwave trough over most of the eastern US resulting in northwest flow.
654 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Plenty of clouds stretching from southwestern MN to south central SD as a cold front slowly moves eastward. Some snow may mix in as temps fall below freezing, but generally expect little to no accumulations. The wave skirts off to the east by mid/late morning Saturday, as flat ridging and zonal flow build in by mid day Saturday, bringing clearing skies and temperatures a few degrees either side of climatological norms (in the 50s). Clouds increase as the next wave shoves flat ridging off to the east.
531 PM MDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis depict an upper low currently centered over central Manitoba with trough axis extending southward through into the southern High Plains. Trough axis continues to pivot eastward through the forecast area this afternoon.
415 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 System crossing through the southern half of the CWA producing snow for the higher terrain of the Sisseton hills, but widespread rain outside that higher elevation.
Showers accompanying an upper trough will move into Baker County early Saturday morning and reach the West Central Mountains by late morning. A cold front associated with the trough will move rapidly across southeast Oregon early Saturday morning and southwest Idaho mid- late morning.
922 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 Mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected through Saturday under building high pressure. Look for cloud coverage to increase significantly during the afternoon due to moist advection aloft ahead of the next crossing trough.
This evening, an upper level ridge axis passes eastward across the region, with an upstream trof following that begins to impact the area during the overnight hours.
A weak/fast-moving cold front will move through the terminals early Saturday, bringing MVFR to occansional IFR conditions ahead and behind its boundary. Meanwhile, a lee cyclone over the Central Plains will drag a weak surface cold frontal boundary into the area overnight as it pushes northeastward. Nonetheless, it should still be a warm but generally pleasant day with highs reaching the lower 80s at most locations and overnight lows in the 50s/lower 60s.
System crossing through the southern half of the CWA producing snow for the higher terrain of the Sisseton hills, but widespread rain outside that higher elevation.
937 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022 A seasonable evening continues across the region, however showers are expected to move into the coastal locations late tonight into Saturday morning as a warm front lifts north.
Look for cloud coverage to increase significantly during the afternoon due to moist advection aloft ahead of the next crossing trough.