Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The ridging pattern that sets up on Thursday could cause stagnant air in many of our southern Oregon and northern California valleys into the weekend. Cold nights during this ridging pattern means that freezing fog could develop resulting in black ice on roads and walkways.
The weak cold front which broad a frontal band through the area is moving SE of the area at this time. A weak cold front has brought light to moderate rain overnight to the CWA (county warning area). Additionally, cooler air and onshore flow will be favorable to generate more showers. Reference the High Surf Advisory for additional information.
407 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 An upper ridge will cross the area today ahead of an upper trough that will affect the region tonight. An increase in moisture will arrive with the upper trough this evening and northwest winds will increase behind a surface cold front. The enhanced moisture and lift associated with the upper trough, along with upslope forcing at the surface, will increase the chance of snow showers tonight, supporting some light snow accumulations over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the northern Black Hills. Thanksgiving day will be breezy/windy and cooler with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
532 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 (Today and Thursday) Much quieter conditions are expected today as the upper low from yesterday continues to push eastward.
/issued 329 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020/ The weather today will be dominated by high pressure centered over southern Florida aloft and ridging from the Atlantic into the Carolinas at the surface. This high pressure will keep east and southeast surface winds in place, with temperatures running several degrees above normal (highs in the low 80s).
400 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Subsidence and drying beneath a transient ridge which moved over the region overnight has led to clear skies for most of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly during the day as the next mid-level Pacific trough moves over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. The cold front associated with this system was indicated to push into northwestern Utah late this afternoon tightening the pressure gradient across the north. Expect showers to increase and spread into the central Colorado mountains on Thanksgiving Day as the trough continues propagate to the southeast and begins to carve out a closed low over Utah-Nevada- Arizona triple point. Temperatures are expected to be a little cooler today, then cooler still on Thanksgiving following the passage of the cold front associated with the approaching system.
(Today and Thursday) Much quieter conditions are expected today as the upper low from yesterday continues to push eastward.
431 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Subsidence and drying beneath a transient ridge which moved over the region overnight has led to clear skies for most of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly during the day as the next mid-level Pacific trough moves over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. The cold front associated with this system was indicated to push into northwestern Utah late this afternoon tightening the pressure gradient across the north. Expect showers to increase and spread into the central Colorado mountains on Thanksgiving Day as the trough continues propagate to the southeast and begins to carve out a closed low over Utah-Nevada- Arizona triple point. Temperatures are expected to be a little cooler today, then cooler still on Thanksgiving following the passage of the cold front associated with the approaching system.
731 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 A pocket of higher moisture is advecting northward over the relatively warmer Gulf waters, allowing for some isolated shallow-topped sprinkles this morning. Temps are still on track to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. /issued 329 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020/ The weather today will be dominated by high pressure centered over southern Florida aloft and ridging from the Atlantic into the Carolinas at the surface. This high pressure will keep east and southeast surface winds in place, with temperatures running several degrees above normal (highs in the low 80s).
Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will continue to advance towards Alabama today and progress over the local area late tonight, making it as far as I-65 by early Thursday morning before stalling. As the cold front stalls over the I-65 corridor on Thursday, slight chance to chance PoPs along with a slight chance of storms are anticipated. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s west of I-65 and be warmer east of I-65, in the mid to upper 60s. Highs Thursday afternoon are then expected to be in the lower to upper 70s west of I-65 and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees east.
This likely in response to some weak drying in the low levels and daytime heating/mixing. This drying matched pretty closely to the incoming warmer and drier air around 925 mb.
Northwesterly winds have now begun to weaken, and we will see a return southerly flow overnight as the ridge axis shifts east. The model blend appears to be below solution means, so have nudged daytime temperatures up more in line with the warmer range of guidance.
157 PM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Current surface map places cold front across eastern Montana. Splitting upper level trof crosses the Rockies tonight as cold front swings through the Dakotas. Duration may be long enough for a light dusting of snow in the higher elevations. Northern portion of upper trof crosses the Dakotas Thursday, with cooler/breezy conditions. with flat ridging ahead of fast moving trofs. Tonight, a cold front will cross the region.
1131 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 (Today and Thursday) Much quieter conditions are expected today as the upper low from yesterday continues to push eastward.
255 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Gusty south winds have been the main weather story today with wind gusts reaching 35-45mph earlier ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Feel pretty confident this trend will continue this afternoon and evening before the cold front pushes through the area.
Light southerly flow will return to the area this evening into tomorrow, along with warmer temperatures. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 40s, with highs for Thanksgiving Day in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
The remainder of today and tonight should be dry, with afternoon highs in the low 80s, nighttime lows in the low 60s.
840 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Satellite imagery shows broad upper trof moving across the northern Rockies, with a surface cold front currently in western MT. Latest models trending toward a little more enhanced upslope precip in Sheridan and southern Big Horn counties this evening (with upper level jet in a favorable position), and could be some wet snow accumulation in this area, including Aberdeen Hill and the higher ridges around Sheridan. Onset of cold advection should end the highest gusts by midday. Drier conditions return for Thanksgiving as high pressure builds back in from the west.
Gusty winds are still occur behind the low but as the lows continues to lift off to the northeast winds will continue to gradually weaken this afternoon with light winds expected tonight. As the upper level low continues to move to the northeast lift is decreasing across the area so the periods of drizzle will continue to end from west to east by late this afternoon. With clear skies and light winds temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 30s tonight. Temperatures will be around or just slightly below the freezing mark. If the fog can get dense enough there could be some potential for freezing fog in spots but do not think this potential will be widespread at this time. We did go on the warmer side of model guidance for Highs on Thursday.
Radar and satellite imagery shows the cold front near a RKP-ALI-HBV line at this time with frontal passage expected at CRP around 18Z. The pre-frontal trough has moved into the northwest Gulf of Mexico past the offshore waters off the lower Texas coast at this time. The cold front continues to push south through the region, along a line from Port O'Connor to Beeville to Freer to south of Laredo at this time.
133 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 As the upper trough that brought the strong wind to the region moves off to the east high pressure will build in from the west.
Temperatures will be cooler than today with most locations struggling to climb out of the 40s, which may make outdoor activities a bit on the cold side.
A 1006mb low was analyzed near of Saint Louis, with a cold front extending south southwest and nearly parallel to the Mississippi River and down into central Louisiana. Rain will finally clear late this afternoon, followed by the surface cold front bringing with it drier and cooler conditions. Pleasant weather is still anticipated for Thanksgiving Day given some brief upper ridging.
1019 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 An upper ridge will cross the area today ahead of an upper trough that will affect the region tonight. An increase in moisture will arrive with the upper trough this evening and northwest winds will increase behind a surface cold front. The enhanced moisture and lift associated with the upper trough, along with upslope forcing at the surface, will increase the chance of snow showers tonight, supporting some light snow accumulations over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the northern Black Hills. Thanksgiving day will be breezy/windy and cooler with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
High pressure continues to slide to the east this morning and into the afternoon hours followed by a weak trough and associated cold front tonight. The passing cold front won't have a major impact on temperatures Thursday compared to Wednesday, however, post frontal northwest winds will lead to gusty conditions during the day Thursday. The period opens with a longwave trough tracking across the central CONUS. As the trough slides east upper level ridging will develop over the Northern Plains, although some models are more defined than others. The Canadian ensembles tend to flatten the ridge and keep slightly cooler air in place, whereas the GFS/EC ensembles trend toward higher 500 MB heights and warmer temps.
A mature and weakening low pressure system that is sustained by jet support and vorticity advection will provide the ascent for widespread rain tonight, before propagating east Thursday morning.
Looking at the HREF members, the operational HRRR is the most aggressive with storm development ahead of the cold front and it only has a couple storms in our southeast this evening. Most members show showers along and ahead of the cold front with no thunder activity.
Tomorrow evening into tomorrow night a cold front will move through the area.
As the cold front slowly continues east and eventually stalls near the coast, some shower activity will be possible Thursday morning (mainly east of I-65).
127 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 Rain will move into the area today and continue into Thursday morning before the passage of low pressure. Aloft, a closed low along the southern stream of the jet will continue to press northeastward into the region. As the warm front lifts through the area, rain will continue to develop as the cold front approaches this evening and into tonight. Warm air being advected north through the period behind the warm front will keep this precip as rain for the duration. Expect the cold front to continue to push east through the period and while some dry slotting may occur with the jet ramping up, precip coverage should remain fairly well due to strong ll moisture.
Weak surface ridging arrives later in the night so some areas of dense fog are possible as pressure gradient slackens a bit.
1221 PM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Arrival of cold front has shifted winds at Livingston to the west, with much lower gusts. Drier conditions return for Thanksgiving as high pressure builds back in from the west.
Regional 88Ds show the line of showers and thunderstorms (now weakening) running out ahead of the approaching cold front now southeast of the Acadiana terminals. Made minor changes to a few of the hourly POPs in the lower Acadiana region to reflect what is occurring on radar.
Made minor changes to a few of the hourly POPs in the lower Acadiana region to reflect what is occurring on radar.
Cloud cover will remain just to the east of our forecast area as the low continues to move move east northeastward. The main impact in the short term will be with the approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through the area tonight clearing out skies, which could have an impact on lows overnight. There is some concern across the southeastern portion of the forecast area where winds will be the lightest, less than 10 mph for most of the night, in combination with the clear skies where temperatures could be cooler than anticipated. However, did make some adjustments to temperatures across the Sandhills, cooling them off a few degrees as CAA will most likely affect this area during the heating hours so not expecting temperatures to warm much past the lower 40s.
Today Through Thursday Night An upper low pressure system will move just north of Arkansas this morning and into the Midwest tonight. An upper ridge will move through the Plains today and tonight as another deep trough enters the Rockies. By late Thursday, this upper trough will extend from the Upper Midwest to the desert southwest. A cold front will move through Arkansas today and bring cool and gusty west and northwest winds with it. Clouds will decrease this afternoon but clouds will continue in the north near the upper low. Clearing is expected tonight with high pressure settling over the area. The cold front will move north toward the state late Thursday and bring an increase of clouds and eventually precipitation chances to the south sections Thursday night.
1130 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 (Today and tonight) A cold front is quickly moving through the area early this morning and will be south of Interstate 10 before sunrise. Cooler temperatures are expected across West Central Texas today, with highs in the mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.
227 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Comparison of short range models to satellite trends for cloud cover shows models are clearing the low clouds out too quickly. Fog development is a possibility given the combination of recent rainfall, light winds, and radiational cooling west of the low clouds mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas turnpike. Any residual fog should lift by late tomorrow morning with a cold front pushing south, and above normal temperatures south of the front for Thanksgiving Day.
High clouds are increasing in western ND ahead of the upper level trough tracking from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. This low is associated with a broad open-wave trough that will move over the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow. Modest low level warm air advection ahead of the surface front along with southwest winds will contribute to warmer temperatures today with highs around 50 in the southwest and in the 40s north and east. Tonight, the aforementioned trough and associated front will push across the state.
A cold front will cross this state this evening through Thanksgiving Day.
Cold front is presently passing through the state, and is triggering a few light rain and snow showers in the Sierra.
The pre-frontal trough has moved into the northwest Gulf of Mexico past the offshore waters off the lower Texas coast at this time. The cold front continues to push south through the region, along a line from Port O'Connor to Beeville to Freer to south of Laredo at this time. Pre-frontal trough/gravity wave approaching the coast early this morning with winds shifted around to the north behind it.
Models show the tail end of a secondary trof moving across our northeast counties late tonight.
If clearing does occur under the ridge, another scenario could result in fog development and a renewed stratus layer, which would be most likely immediately behind any clearing.
1032 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Subsidence and drying beneath a transient ridge which moved over the region overnight has led to clear skies for most of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly during the day as the next mid-level Pacific trough moves over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. The cold front associated with this system was indicated to push into northwestern Utah late this afternoon tightening the pressure gradient across the north. Expect showers to increase and spread into the central Colorado mountains on Thanksgiving Day as the trough continues propagate to the southeast and begins to carve out a closed low over Utah-Nevada- Arizona triple point. Temperatures are expected to be a little cooler today, then cooler still on Thanksgiving following the passage of the cold front associated with the approaching system.
Tonight this cold front will move across the forecast area. Although the atmosphere is relatively dry and the best forcing will remain over southern Canada, there could be an isolated rain or snow shower along the cold front. On Thanksgiving day, the upper level trough lifts northeast and the surface cold front moves into the upper Great Lakes. Highs on Thanksgiving day will range from the lower 30s north to lower 40s south.
Tonight and Thursday Light rain or drizzle is possible in east central Wisconsin through the evening hours from moisture associated with the low pressure system moving from Indiana to southeast Lower Michigan. Thanksgiving Day will start out cloudy, but there should be some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon as southwest winds increase a bit ahead of an approaching cold front.
A weak cold front will turn winds to the north tomorrow with a bit of a breeze.
1009 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Upper low pressure system that produced snowfall over the region was moving into MO early this morning. A decent surface pressure gradient between a ridge center over western CO and trough over eastern WY was generating strong west to southwest winds between Rawlins and Bordeaux with gusts over 60 mph measured at Arlington and Elk Mtn. Western CONUS upper trough approaches the CWA tonight with mid/level moisture increasing. Snow lingers into the afternoon before ending as flow aloft splits with the upper trough progressing east into the northern Plains by Thursday evening. High temperatures Thanksgiving Day will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler in the wake of tonight/s cold frontal passage.
211 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Low stratus remains stout across the region this afternoon and will not budge much through this evening, at least not until a cold front arrives from the Dakotas around daybreak Thanksgiving morning. Only issue may be overnight fog that develops ahead of the approaching cold front, particularly in the pre-dawn hours for mainly the southern half of the WFO MPX coverage area, with such plentiful moisture trapped under the nightly inversion.
Some indications the trough may nudge east a bit by late afternoon which may allow the winds to increase there so have opted to maintain the High Wind warning until 5 PM in light of this possibility.
555 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Low stratus remains stout across the region this afternoon and will not budge much through this evening, at least not until a cold front arrives from the Dakotas around daybreak Thanksgiving morning. Only issue may be overnight fog that develops ahead of the approaching cold front, particularly in the pre-dawn hours for mainly the southern half of the WFO MPX coverage area, with such plentiful moisture trapped under the nightly inversion.
320 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Cloud cover continues to lift east northeast across far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon as the upper low that moves through the Plains last night pushes off to the northeast. a low pressure system is progged to drop southeast into the Desert Southwest and become cut off during the day Thursday. while the northern stream flow continues its east southeast push with a weak cold front through the CWA Thursday night.
An upper trough will shift east tonight as ridging builds in to the area.
Gusty south winds have been the main weather story today with wind gusts reaching 35-45mph earlier ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Feel pretty confident this trend will continue this afternoon and evening before the cold front pushes through the area.
303 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Overnight the short wave ridge aloft that brought our nice weather to the area today will gradually transition to a west to southwest flow in response to a deepening trough moving into the Great Basin. Tomorrow evening a cold front will begin to push southward through the area. An upper-level trough currently moving onto the west coast will begin to deepen into the desert southwest on Thanksgiving and become a closed upper low Thursday afternoon into evening.
Overnight lows settle into the low 60s inland, and mid 60s along coast. We couldn't cook up a better forecast for Thanksgiving if we tried! Ridge axis remains draped over the peninsula ahead of an approaching boundary, with prevailing SE/E winds of 5-10 mph. Afternoon highs in the lower 80s will make for a perfect post-turkey outdoor stroll. The highest chance of impact is at LEE.
At 3 PM, the low cloud cover hung tough today, with areas near the Missouri River still socked in this afternoon. Thanksgiving will see a frontal passage in the morning, and a healthy upper level trough over the Northern Plains.
/issued 303 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020/ Overnight the short wave ridge aloft that brought our nice weather to the area today will gradually transition to a west to southwest flow in response to a deepening trough moving into the Great Basin. Tomorrow evening a cold front will begin to push southward through the area. An upper-level trough currently moving onto the west coast will begin to deepen into the desert southwest on Thanksgiving and become a closed upper low Thursday afternoon into evening.
High pressure overhead has provided light winds aloft and strong surface inversions over the existing snow pack in the Gunnison Basin the last couple nights, allowing for stratus and subsequent fog development. Temperatures for Thanksgiving Day will be cooler following the passage of the cold front with colder temperatures in store Thursday night as skies clear behind the front, especially across the north. Lingering cloud cover due to the proximity of the closed low over Arizona, just south of the Four Corners, will help moderate overnight low temperatures across the south.
Scattered snow showers will slowly diminish across the region this evening, as a Pacific cold front exits the area.
554 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Comparison of short range models to satellite trends for cloud cover shows models are clearing the low clouds out too quickly. Fog development is a possibility given the combination of recent rainfall, light winds, and radiational cooling west of the low clouds mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas turnpike. Any residual fog should lift by late tomorrow morning with a cold front pushing south, and above normal temperatures south of the front for Thanksgiving Day.
Latest surface analysis places a 1005mb low pressure system over Champaign, Illinois with a cold front extending due south along the Tennessee River and back through Tupelo, Mississippi. High pressure will settle over the region overnight with temperatures falling into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Northerly flow in the wake of a cold front will prevail for the rest of the evening as the system moves east across the GOM. Early tomorrow morning, winds will shift more easterly and skies get cloudier from the south as a warm front begins to move inland advecting in the warmer moist gulf air.
/issued 133 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020/ As the upper trough that brought the strong wind to the region moves off to the east high pressure will build in from the west.