Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1147 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT IN SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL USHER SOME COOLER AIR. ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR. ECMWF MADE A MAJOR CHANGE NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED BRINGING A WAVE OFF HUDSON BAY LOW AND DRAWING COOLER NORTHERN LATITUDE AIR SOUTH AS WAVE CLOSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. COOLER AIR LAGGING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
LATEST WRF MODELS AND CAM PRESENTATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REPRESENTING THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES A BIT CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. AS THE UPPER HIGH KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. BUT THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE HIGHER RISK FOR ANYONE OUTDOORS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
1020 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS WEAK BUT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WARM.
THE DRIER AIRMASS IS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERING OVER S TX TODAY. UPPER RIDGE GETS STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON SUNDAY. THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD AREA (BUT STILL STAYS TO THE WEST) SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID FOR LABOR DAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROG TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS TEXAS.
Showers and thunderstorms have become fairly widespread and quite intense this afternoon as the main upper level low pressure system moves over west central Montana. Additional cold air will slide over the area as the low slowly pushes off to the northeast which will effectively help drive the snow level down to at least 6500 feet through tonight. A secondary weather feature will slide down behind the exiting low pressure system on Sunday which should help enhance afternoon convective showers, especially across NW Montana. But accumulations should be limited to the highest terrain and thus the impact is expected to be limited.
548 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL PULL THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT AT THE SHOWERS BEING MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL. RIDGES SHOULD ALSO STAY A BIT MORE MIXED AS LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ENSUES. THE RIDGING WILL BE STRONGER ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING IN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER AM HESITANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY. AN EAST WEST ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WESTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS.
UPPER RIDGE. /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH SUNDAY EVEN AS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM TRANSLATES INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BUT WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS DRIER MID/UPPER AIR ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION WITHIN THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THOUGH PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER VERSUS THE LAST 24 HOURS FOR BOTH LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW. GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ONE FROM WRN CONUS TROUGH AND RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS TO A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST TEXAS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE NRN PLAINS TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
Expect a repeat on Sunday of Saturday's conditions with another day reaching the lower to middle 90s, with moist conditions allowing heat indices to reach the upper 90s to perhaps 100 degrees. The large ridge will ultimately break down as a large trough moves into the northern plains.
654 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. SO UPR 80S CAN BE EXPECTED (THIS WARMER SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 1 OR 2C INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY). PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE LAX. SURFACE RIDGING OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH END OF WORK WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AREA HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND BECOME MORE BROAD AS IT DOES SO. LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH THE WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST RAISE A CONCERN FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THEREFOR HEAVY RAIN. LARGE UPR LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UT. WITH A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS NORTHERN UT FOR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY.
752 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
245 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL PULL THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT AT THE SHOWERS BEING MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT VQQ AND GNV. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS ONSHORE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
/ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/ OUR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE CONUS WILL RETROGRADE AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MID WEEK.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s are expected.
THE MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN USA. BUT WILL DEAMPLIFY AS THE LOW OVER THE PAC NW HEADS INTO CNTRL CANADA BY 00Z/MON. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
301 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO ALBERTA CANADA. WITH MOST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE WEST OVER THE REGION FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS.
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/ SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED E OF THIS AREA AS ENERGY ALOFT IN THE UPPER LOW PUSHES E. CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERE WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS APPROACHING PACIFIC TROF INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AMPLE SHEAR.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
409 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 OUR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE CONUS WILL RETROGRADE AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MID WEEK.
/ISSUED / WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM 500 TO 200 MB OVER WESTERN TEXAS PUT A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WAS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
AND A THIRD COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE APEX OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEING MAXIMIZED. 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM RUNS ALL SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROPAGATING OUT OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. WITH A COOLER.
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH BEFORE STALLING.
No change in the very warm and humid late summer weather through Sunday as the upper level high pressure ridge remains stretched across the region. May see convection edge toward the area late Sunday night as the upper ridge begins to break down and a front sags southward. The upper level ridge currently over the central U.
318 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS.
724 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
739 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH MOVED IN COURTESY OF THE MARITIME FLOW. A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW ANY MORNING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AREA-WIDE.
1056 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to produce similar conditions to what we have had over the past several days. ECMWF continues to be about 6 hours faster than the GFS with the approach of a cold front/onset of precipitation for mid week.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW DEPARTS.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS WEAK BUT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
900 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. SO UPR 80S CAN BE EXPECTED (THIS WARMER SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 1 OR 2C INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY). PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE LAX. SURFACE RIDGING OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH END OF WORK WEEK.
339 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT IN SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL USHER SOME COOLER AIR. ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR. ECMWF MADE A MAJOR CHANGE NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED BRINGING A WAVE OFF HUDSON BAY LOW AND DRAWING COOLER NORTHERN LATITUDE AIR SOUTH AS WAVE CLOSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. COOLER AIR LAGGING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
623 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT IN SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL USHER SOME COOLER AIR. ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR. ECMWF MADE A MAJOR CHANGE NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED BRINGING A WAVE OFF HUDSON BAY LOW AND DRAWING COOLER NORTHERN LATITUDE AIR SOUTH AS WAVE CLOSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA. COOLER AIR LAGGING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
RIDGING ALOFT AND A POCKET OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE PRECLUDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF OUR CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA AROUND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WARM AIR POCKET. TEMPORARILY SUPRESSING THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS. PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SW ON WED/WED NIGHT AS NRN STREAM MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN IT THE THE SRN CONUS RIDGE. AND THE SRN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AGAIN FROM THE WEST. FRI NIGHT/SAT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN MID/UPPER RIDGE INCREASES.
124 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER IDAHO THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT/TUE BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED-FRI RESULTING IN FAIR WX WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHOWER OR STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
428 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY IN SE GA TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT TO DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA BY 00Z MONDAY.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE IN THE LOWER 100S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GREENVILLE WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH OF 99F MONDAY THE 20TH. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WILL WORK TO INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
Highs will be near 100 in the Permian Basin, a little warmer in the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys and a little cooler in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Models are showing a weak upper trough may move northeast around the western periphery of the upper high Monday spreading showers and thunderstorms a little east.
142 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INITIALLY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DEPENDING ON THE RIDGE STRENGTH.
1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SW NEB THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID TERM SOLUTIONS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FLATTENED SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AND CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE EJECTED OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. MONDAY RIDGE REBOUNDS BEHIND EXITING WAVE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME 90S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
251 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2015 (Today and Tonight) Broad upper level high, currently centered over the ArkLaTex region, will remain over Texas today and tonight. Temperatures are expected to be a little hotter today, as the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens over our area.
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A STAGNANT PATTERN UNDER UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN THE CARDS TODAY WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS FORESEEN. THIS RIDGE WAS BUSY WARDING OFF T-STORMS FROM OUR REGION AS THE NEAREST PRECIP WAS FOUND JUST NORTH OF I-40 FROM TCC TO AMA.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSURING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WY EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. INITALLY MAINLY OFFERING A WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MT. SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
429 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MUCH QUIETER AND COOLER MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. WHICH HAS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ALBERTA.
BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN EVENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME LATE IN THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE AND BEAR DOWN UPON THE FAR NORTH. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG WERE IN BARBER COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING BY SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES IN THIS LOW MIXING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY REACH MID TO UPPER 90S AND PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 108-118 RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
/06Z TAFS/ WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CONTROL NO MAJOR CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. AS A WEAK AND SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
126 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
253 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. 00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVIDING THE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
BUT THE COAST WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME MARINE CLOUDS.
The upper ridge remains centered over the ArkLaTex region today. However, it has withdrawn from the Deep Southeast as troughing increases along the U.
A COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
305 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS HAVE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO AREA. 42 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
212 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY THANKS TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION A RATHER UNSEASONABLY COLD CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH WYOMING TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AROUND LAKE YELLOWSTONE AND JACKSON LAKE BY EARLY MORNING.
617 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
500 MB HIGH SITTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND GENERAL TROF FROM THE NRN PLAINS BACK INTO THE SWRN CONUS. TONIGHT COOLER AS A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE.
302 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES HAS SPRAWLED EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY GET CAUGHT UP ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH. THE LONGER TERM INITIALLY HAS A COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF MAINLY DRY DAYS FOLLOWING. MILD AND SOMEWHAT COOLER THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK. THEN TRENDING WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY.
311 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING OVER OK AND AR IS ORIENTING THE RING OF FIRE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ARCING AROUND NORTHERN MO-SOUTHERN IA INTO OHIO. STORMS THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN MO ARE FORMING ALONG CONVERGENT 850 MB BOUNDARY WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS POINT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT TAKING THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW DAYS. I AM INCLINED TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER END OF CHANCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ENDING ANY RAIN THREAT.
215 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE MOST FOR THE LAST WEEK.