Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley tonight, allowing skies to clear. The high will continue to influence the region on Monday. Temperatures will also remain fairly steady with highs ranging from the mid 30s in the northwest to the lower 40s across the southeast. Mid level trough will shift way from the region tonight into Monday. Temperatures will generally bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. On Monday, the center of the ridge will move southeast toward the Carolina coast.
Increasing subsidence and shifting of thermal trough is allowing low clouds to continue to slowly erode from west to east early this morning. Expect this trend to slowly continue eastward, but low clouds will be slower to clear in the east due to lingering thermal trof in this area through 12Z. Despite the return of some sunshine, a cold day lies ahead with lingering WNW winds and daytime temps only rising to the low to mid 30s. Daytime temperatures will be at least 10 degrees warmer on Monday. Medium Decent uptick in temps as gusty southwest winds pull in warmer airmass with low pressure passing to our north.
701 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening, had a low located over western Hudson Bay with a trough extending south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. West of this feature, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure extended from central California north into southwestern Canada. Winds will shift around to the southwest this afternoon, pushing warmer air into the forecast area. This coupled with clear skies, will lead to lows in the lower to middle 20s. Warm air advection will also allow surface temperatures to rise into the low 60s on Monday. Low pressure will track across southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes region on Monday night. This low will drag a cold front across the region.
Northwesterly flow aloft has returned over the Central Plains, behind the upper trof now over the east coast. For today, the high plains lee trof develops by late afternoon, with southerly winds and warm advection over our area. Northeast Kansas lies between high pressure to the southeast and a trough to the northwest on Monday. Gusty winds and some WAA will allow highs to reach into the low 60s.
Cold front has exited the Southeastern Big Bend, taking the line of showers with it.
Dry westerly flow under a broad ridge of high pressure next 24 hours.
Cooler and drier air will continue filter into deep south Texas today and tonight. A 500 mb trough axis will move over Texas on Monday. The combination of some marginal moisture return and the trough moving overhead will support increasing cloudiness and the mention of some low end pops on Monday. High temperatures Monday expected to be in the low to mid 70s area-wide.
Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western United States. For today into tonight, ridge will continue to gradually push towards the east bringing milder temperatures to the area along with quiet weather. Ridge passes over the area early Monday bringing one more mild day before a clipper passes through the region.
Winds have relaxed a little behind the cold front early this morning, but the surface pressure gradient will continue to allow winds of 10-15 mph during the day today. With cold air in place aloft behind the upper trough, temperatures will not recover too much today, with most of the area seeing highs in the 40s. Hopefully the drier air and eastward progression of the upper trough will erode clouds from west to east a bit faster, but for now, have clouds for most of the mid state this morning, and into the afternoon for the Plateau.
Dry weather can be expected through the work week as high pressure dominates the weather for much of the period.
The high center is fcst to shift EWD, passing ovr AR tngt. As the high shifts further to the E, south winds/milder air wl return for Mon and Mon Night.
Weak backdoor cold front moves to the east slopes of Laramie Range Monday night, so should see winds ease some at least on this side of the Laramie Range.
A broad ridge has built into the western portion of North America which has brought northwest flow aloft to the region. The Ukmet, Sref, and Canadian models started out the best on the low level thermal field. Comparing the high level rh progs to satellite would indicate that the more aggressive model output is going to be wrong. Based on that and latest 2 meter/850 mb forecasts and biases, am going to keep the warmer high temperatures. Although if we get thick cirrus in here, that could hinder warmer. Warm air advection and downslope winds remain rather strong during the night in advance of an approaching cold front.
725 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A cold front just east of the Midlands will move offshore this morning. A dry and cooler air mass will build over the area through Monday. Moisture will return mid to late week as the weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level trough moving thru the eastern CONUS today. Surface cold front just east of the Midlands will move offshore this morning. Stayed on the cooler side of Mos. Overnight low temperatures near freezing especially in the north and west Midlands/CSRA. Dry and cooler air mass over the area Monday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
After the cold start to the day, highs will only reach the lower to middle 60s for much of the area under the mostly clear skies. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph return to the forecast on Monday and this will allow temperatures to be around 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today.
853 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Thin line of showers extending along cold front from JAX-GNV and will continue to move SE through NE FL this morning while decreasing clouds expected across SE GA the rest of the morning. still features clear skies and much cooler temps falling into the 30s inland and 40s along the coast and St Johns River Basin. Forecast on track with SCA conds offshore and SCEC conds nearshore with the cold frontal passage today and NW to N winds continuing tonight.
forecast soundings still indicating unidirectional NW flow beneath 5Kft inversion lending marginal support for continuing low chance POPs through the morning hours before winds back to a more westerly direction as surface ridging builds into the TN valley. high pressure center to the south will leave enough of a gradient over the area to mitigate decoupling of the boundary layer and more substantial radiational cooling which should leave lows in the mid-upper 20s. High pressure slides off to the Carolinas on Monday bringing a milder but quite brisk SW return flow.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface extended from TX into western MN early this morning. Expect a decent range of lows tonight, depending on where the low levels can decouple. Weal low level warm air advection continues Monday, ahead of a strong cold front that will blast through Monday night.
The cold front ahead of it was now across the eastern U.
418 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Cold front which brought the recent air mass change has now pushed into the northern Gulf with very dry and cool W/NW flow aloft. This has enabled temperatures to really plummet as our extreme NW zones are near freezing while our remaining locations remain in the lower to mid 40s with a few more degrees yet to fall before sunrise. Sunny skies are expected today in this increasingly dry air mass, giving way to a pleasant Sunday with afternoon highs climbing back into the lower to mid 60s.
539 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Today: Ridge axis will move across the forecast area during the day with winds increasing/backing. This could keep maxes shy of full potential, but still prefer to hedge warmer than initialization given the otherwise classic set up for warmer than anticipated temperatures.
835 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Gusty winds today in the wake of a cold front can be expected today along with scattered precipitation changing to snow over the course of the day. Updated to end the wind advisory, as gusts in the higher elevations are now coming in at 35 MPH or less. presenting the best opportunity for accumulating snow mainly along and north of I-80 and in the higher terrain.
The cold front has pushed through the entire state of Alabama.
Main item of interest is the cold front. Energy with the associated upper level trough will remain north of the state line and the front is accompanied by a narrow swath of somewhat deeper moisture. Cold front is pushing into the northern waters with showers and strong northerly winds in it/s wake. High pressure tracks through the Gulf coast early in the week.
A weak front has brought somewhat cooler conditions to the area, though unseasonable warmth will quickly return this week. /449 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Models remain in excellent agreement through the weekend, depicting gradual height/thickness rises associated with a building ridge across the Intermountain West.
/issued 157 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Canadian high pressure will settle over the Mid South today. Highs will range from the middle 40s across northwest Tennessee to the lower 50s over north Mississippi. High pressure will move overhead tonight. This will mean a cold night ahead with widespread freezing conditions expected. Low temperatures will range from the middle 20s in the Tennessee Valley to around freezing in downtown Memphis. High pressure will move east on Monday with return southerly low level flow advecting warmer air into the region.
High pressure continues to bring cool and dry conditions to the area this morning. Temperatures have dropped into the mid 30s at the coast with some freezing temperatures in the inland areas. The models have the rain moving in slightly sooner than previous runs, with rain starting Sunday evening mainly over the higher terrain of Del Norte county.
Above normal temperatures will continue through Monday, on west to southwesterly winds ahead of low pressure sliding across southern Canada (over British Columbia and Saskatchewan today, and Manitoba by mid day Monday).
Tonight, the ridge axis will head east with southwest winds keeping temperatures warmer than early this morning.
619 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A cold front will move rapidly east of the region this morning. A dry and cooler air mass will build over the area through Monday. Moisture will return mid to late week as the weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level trough moving thru the eastern CONUS today. cold front has moved into the Piedmont SC. Stayed on the cooler side of Mos. Overnight low temperatures near freezing overnight especially in the north and west Midlands/CSRA. Dry and cooler air mass over the area Monday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
High pressure will strengthen over Arizona through much of the coming week. Cold morning temperatures today and Monday will give way to warmer weather, with daytime temperatures approaching near record levels by Thanksgiving Day. Model forecasts show high pressure building over the southwest United States over the coming week.
Despite some breaking up of the clouds, which Will gradually continue , the upper level flow is still cyclonic, and thus the low clouds remain trapped below a frontal inversion. The heart of the cold air behind this first front will shift through the western Great lakes this morning, and with increasing higher clouds today, highs will hold in the low to mid 30s. KMD 121 AM CST The general idea is high pressure will shift across the Great Lakes, then shift off to the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic regions with some regularity throughout the extended. A series of clipper like systems will bring occasional wind, clouds and cold spells, followed by warm ups as each high pressure departs east.
This will result in freezing temperatures across the Mojave Desert.
At 3 AM, the Bert Mooney Airport was sitting at 10 degrees while northern Butte was near 30 degrees! Another example includes the Bitterroot Valley where temperatures near the river are near 20 degrees while up on the side benches temperatures are close to freezing. Due to the fact that the moisture is moving in during the night and some valley locations may be hovering near freezing, there will be a chance for freezing rain.
312 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017 Main concern over the next 24 hours will be the high wind potential over the higher mountains and east slopes after midnight tonight. Temperatures will be warmer today as 700mb temperatures climb to around +0C by later today. Speeds of 25 to 40 mph along with low humidity in the low teens will increase fire danger - see fire discussion below. Moisture in the northwest flow will push into the mountains in the late afternoon, with snow falling over the high country.
This frontal boundary is forecast to make its way into northwest California by late tonight, but any further southward progression will be thwarted by an upper ridge that will be building over central and southern California. Elsewhere across our region, subsidence under the building upper ridge is expected to inhibit the development of precipitation, although isolated light rain may occur as far south as the San Francisco Peninsula and the East Bay on Monday. There certainly is sufficient moisture approaching to produce these heavier rainfall amounts, but given recent model trends of building the upper ridge more strongly over California, these higher totals seem unlikely. The upper ridge is forecast to continue strengthening across the southwestern United States through midweek. Meanwhile, moist southwesterly flow will continue between this ridge and a deepening trough offshore near 145W.
1031 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A high pressure ridge axis has shifted eastward to the Bahamas this morning, and northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph are prevalent across the island chain. A cold front is moving across North- Central Florida with a weak line of showers marking the boundary. Isolated precipitation echos are detected by KBYX in the outer Florida Straits, and partly cloudy skies are present across the Lower Keys, with mostly clear skies across the Middle and Upper Keys. The weak cold front will continue progressing down the Florida Peninsula, drifting into our coastal waters tonight and stalling across the Keys Monday morning. However, conditions will change tonight in response to an approaching weak cold front, which will freshen winds tonight and into Monday.
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley tonight, allowing skies to clear. The high will continue to influence the region on Monday. Large scale mid level trough will traverse east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. Temperatures will not warm all that much, ranging from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. Northwest winds will remain locally gusty between 15 and 25 knots Mid level trough will shift way from the region tonight into Monday. Temperatures will generally bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. On Monday, the center of the ridge will move southeast toward the Carolina coast.
GOES16 imagery suggest some fog developing off the warmer waters of Blue Mesa as are temperatures hover near the single digits. Otherwise temperatures will be the main challenge in the short term forecast as warmer temperatures arrive aloft to strengthen valley inversions. A clipper type system digs down the high prairies of central Canada causing the western ridge to sharpen along the left coast.
A large ridge of high pressure aloft will edge toward the region Monday with milder temperatures and continued dry weather.
/issued 418 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Cold front which brought the recent air mass change has now pushed into the northern Gulf with very dry and cool W/NW flow aloft. This has enabled temperatures to really plummet as our extreme NW zones are near freezing while our remaining locations remain in the lower to mid 40s with a few more degrees yet to fall before sunrise. Sunny skies are expected today in this increasingly dry air mass, giving way to a pleasant Sunday with afternoon highs climbing back into the lower to mid 60s.
A breezy south and southwest wind can be expected on Monday ahead of a weak cold front. Although surface moisture will increase slightly, warmer temperatures will result in low afternoon humidity and elevated fire weather conditions.
Potential exists for a more significant winter system and following moderate LES Fri into the weekend, but there still plenty of uncertainty with the track/strength of the low.
High pressure aloft will remain over the region through the balance of the weekend. A weak weather disturbance will graze northern Utah on Monday, followed by even stronger high pressure aloft returning midweek.
/Today through Tonight/ Thermal trof currently across the state on the backside of departing system. With little change in sky cover or winds tonight and thermal ridge building toward the state, lows overnight should be a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the current readings.
As high pressure slides into east Texas and a lee trough forms across the High Plains, southwesterly surface winds will help temperatures warm back into the middle 40s in north central Missouri to the middle 50s across eastern Kansas. With a strengthening pressure gradient keeping up southerly winds overnight, low temperatures Monday AM will be warmer in the middle 30s.
557 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 09Z/3 am surface analysis shows a strong and still deepening 983 mb low pressure just east of Lake Ontario while 1033 mb high pressure was over the central Rockies and ridging into the central and southern plains. The latest HRRR and Hi Res Rapid Refresh model runs are similar in handling these low clouds fairly well, and gradually decrease these clouds from west to east from mid morning into early afternoon as deep upper level trof over eastern parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley pulls further away from IL into the Atlantic states by sunset.
453 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 At 2 AM, a band of MVFR clouds associated with a short wave trough was moving southeast through western Wisconsin.
As high pressure dominates the region, for the next 24 hours, expect dry conditions and unseasonably cool temperatures.
A weak disturbance in the ridge will be the primary weather element of interest for today. An approaching Pacific trough will move over the Pacific Northwest early Sunday evening, with showers expected to reach into eastern Oregon after midnight.
845 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 As of 14 UTC, a surface warm front had propagated into eastern North Dakota. A very mild day is expected across the west and south cental with highs in the 40s to the lower 50s with favorable downsloping westerly winds. Across the far north central and the Turtle Mountains, mixing will be less where the front stalls, thus, highs today will be much cooler, only in the 20s and 30s. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western United States. For today into tonight, ridge will continue to gradually push towards the east bringing milder temperatures to the area along with quiet weather. Ridge passes over the area early Monday bringing one more mild day before a clipper passes through the region.
/Issued 325 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ High pressure will dominate the area for the majority of the forecast period.
517 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A cold front will move rapidly east of the region this morning. A dry and cooler air mass will build over the area through Monday. Moisture will return mid to late week as the weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level trough moving thru the eastern CONUS today. cold front has moved into the Piedmont SC. Stayed on the cooler side of Mos. Overnight low temperatures near freezing overnight especially in the north and west Midlands/CSRA. Dry and cooler air mass over the area Monday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
Expect this trend to slowly continue eastward, but low clouds will be slower to clear in the east due to lingering thermal trof in this area through 12Z. Despite the return of some sunshine, a cold day lies ahead with lingering WNW winds and daytime temps only rising to the low to mid 30s. Daytime temperatures will be at least 10 degrees warmer on Monday. Medium Decent uptick in temps as gusty southwest winds pull in warmer airmass with low pressure passing to our north.
Will see slightly warmer low temperatures tonight across northeast and central MO as surface/low level winds back around to a southwesterly direction as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our region. GKS A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America throughout this period. This will allow several disturbances and a pair of surface cold fronts to pass thru our region.
523 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Gusty winds today in the wake of a cold front can be expected today along with scattered precipitation changing to snow over the course of the day. Cold front that passed overnight is now east of the ridges with continued gusty winds and temperatures rapidly dropping in it's wake. The wind advisory remains in effect for the ridges through mid-morning while the potential for gusts in of 45-55mph exists. presenting the best opportunity for accumulating snow mainly along and north of I-80 and in the higher terrain.
An upper level ridge starts to build to the west and with the sunshine, temperatures will warm into the 80s.
West/northwest winds will ease this evening with lighter wind regime taking hold for Thursday as high pressure settles across southern Wisconsin and the Upper Ohio River Valley. High Quiet period with high pressure gradually building in through Thursday.
High pressure is ridging into the southeast states from the Atlantic. The southeast flow along the edge of the ridge continues to push in a warm and moist air mass from the Caribbean to the northern gulf coast. Aloft a trough is located over the central sections of the country while a shift wave is pushing east across northern Mexico. Today the coastal trough has been slowly washing out and the sea breeze has overcome what left.
The upper-level trough centered over New England will remain quasi-stationary through the weekend.
Dew points dropping with cooler and drier air filtering in. High pressure will remain in control overnight.
1259 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure over the midwest will move across Ohio and Pennsylvania overnight and Thursday.
732 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A weak cold front will slip south of the Ohio River tonight as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. The high will remain over the area into Thursday. Lows tonight will dip into the lower 50s for another night. High pressure will remain across the region with a few fair weather cu developing later in the day.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: The weather pattern through Thursday will be dominated by an upper level ridge, which will bring much above normal temperatures to the region.
1035 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017 As a long wave low pressure trough moves inland along the West Coast, the high pressure ridge extending from the 4 corners into the northern Rockies will shift east into the northern and central Great Plains.
An upper level trough will pass north of New Mexico Thursday and Thursday night allowing drier air to funnel into the state from the west.
In addition some areas of drizzle are beginning to occur across the coastal mesas and slopes with a very bit of lift from the trough passing through the region. A weak low pressure system moving through California will bring cool weather and extensive coastal clouds through Thursday.
Ridge aloft will bring mostly dry conditions to the region through Thursday.
/issued 320 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017/ Tonight partly to mostly cloudy across the ArkLaTex with overnight temperatures in the mid 60s north of I-20 and the lower 70s south of the I-20 corridor. This weekend's weather will come from the Pacific northwest, an upper level low pressure system will move to the northeast into the Plains and across the region. The stationary front will be pushed through the area by a strong trough of low pressure moving into the Rockies and Plains. Expect hot and muggy conditions this weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s area wide can't rule out some areas reaching the lower 90s.