Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will hang round for most of the day, helping to keep temperatures cooler by a few degrees. Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 68 81 66 / 60 60 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 66 80 63 / 50 60 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 82 66 81 63 / 40 60 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 62 79 60 / 30 50 50 20.
An upper ridge over the area will shift inland through Memorial Day.
1049 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure will linger over the region today.
1100 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 With warm and moist air in place, showers and thunderstorms will be possible today ahead of a cold front. Expect a better chance of pcpn to move into our northwest late this afternoon ahead of the approaching mid level short wave and trough axis. While the Sunday evening trough/front will do little to change temperatures over the region, with max temps Monday expected to be very similar to Sunday -- mid 70s to near 80.
1123 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A low pressure system is expected to cause thunderstorms as it lifts northeast across our area this afternoon. Storms will move out of the area tonight but a few more may develop Memorial Day afternoon as another weak trough moves through.
Upper level low pressure will linger north of the Great Lakes Monday night through the remainder of the week with persistent weak high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic.
Due to the low RHs expected with the strong, dry northwest winds expected, a red flag warning has been issued. Templer Previous discussion - Synoptic Setup: A trough runs from the Northwest territories down through the Canadian Prairies and into the eastern Dakotas and Upper Mississippi Valley. A ridge runs upward through the Intermountain west into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. So, have shrink-stretched the lowest points down further to below 20 percent. Winds were also switched from the typical Super/ConsShort to ConsMOS in order to capture the higher winds in a well mixed atmosphere.
We have some likely pops there now and that expands over much of the area tonight as cold front edges into the area. /issued 247 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Positively tilted upper trof and associated cold front moving across the Southern Plains this morning responsible for ongoing line of storms along the Red River of TX/OK into central AR. Presence of outflow along with the advancement of the cold front and daytime heating will allow for storms to redevelop in the I-20 corridor this aftn. Front will stall by this evening, as the embedded trof lifts newd away from our region. Approaching upper trof and associated cold front during the weekend will bring additional chances for rain.
A cold front will move south into the area this afternoon. As the day goes by and we enter into the afternoon and evening period, a cold front is forecast to push across the Hill Country and produce strong to severe thunderstorms.
Mid level ridge expanding from the Gulf across the Florida peninsula will maintain subsidence and drier than normal air. The models still show ridge settling a bit to the south with slight tightening of the pressure gradient, especially across northern sections. Slightly increased northwest winds (10-15 knots) were occurring from around Canaveral north this morning due to weak low pressure trough offshore.
746 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Crossing low pressure will result in areawide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Winds will become more southerly and ramp up moisture and warm air advection in the lower levels while temperatures cool in the mid/upper levels. Model CAPE values look to average between 1000 and 1500 J/kg by mid/late afternoon and the latest forecast consensus progs the associated warm front beginning to lift north over the area by late morning. Shower/thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening as the associated cold front follows. The upper trough will remain the dominant feature through the end of the week with no major changes to the longwave pattern. More storms developing ahead of an approaching cold front should continue through the evening with MVFR and local IFR restrictions. Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough.
1122 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Sunday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
/Issued 405 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ A cold front was located from Western Texas through South Central and East Central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and extended northeast into Eastern Missouri early this morning. scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over far Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas through the morning hours and are expected to exit the CWA with the exiting cold front. Behind the cold front. Cloud cover should also begin to clear out from west to east into this evening as an upper level trof axis. associated with a closed low drifting southeast toward the Great Lakes Region.
High pressure will slowly build across the region through the remainder of the holiday weekend, resulting in a warming trend extending into the middle of the week. Current forecast in good shape as the ridge builds in over the Great Basin. Most models continue to show some instability over the highest terrain late this afternoon into this evening but there has been some backing off. The trend over the next few days will be for the ridge to move to our east opening the door for some southerly flow to develop. The ridge building over the area will bring with it temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal which will increase the snow melt across the high elevations.
Weak ridging over the Florida Peninsula will split once again with plenty of solar insolation, and a chaotic but light wind pattern expected once again. Light seabreezes across Upper Keys and Florida Bay will be juxtaposed with light north to northeast flow this afternoon around the remaining high pressure cell across the eastern Gulf. Light south to southwest seabreezes will once again occur over Florida Bay with winds backing from east to north across the Gulf waters north of the Lower Keys.
644 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Showers have developed across western WI overnight ahead of the cold front passing through. As temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by late this morning, some weak surface-based CAPE will develop within the cyclonic flow of the upper low centered just south of Hudson Bay.
Expect mostly sunny skies with hot conditions again today with mid/upper ridge axis across central Fl. Temperatures expected to reach the low/mid 90s inland with upper 80s at the beaches.
936 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Crossing low pressure will result in areawide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. A small cluster of storms has already formed ahead of the warm front in southeast Ohio. The lowest FFG values reside from Allegheny/Westmoreland counties south into northern West Virginia. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into tonight as low pressure tracks to our northwest, dragging a cold front across. The upper trough will remain the dominant feature through the end of the week with no major changes to the longwave pattern. More storms developing ahead of an approaching cold front should continue through the evening with MVFR and local IFR restrictions. Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough.
533 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Aviation Section Updated An upper level ridge of high pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move eastward over the next few days.
MVFR ceilings should return by this evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front appears to be making slow progress as it is just getting past the red river and has not reached Dallas/Forth Worth yet.
1152 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Crossing low pressure will result in areawide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. A small cluster of storms has already formed ahead of the warm front in southeast Ohio. The lowest FFG values reside from Allegheny/Westmoreland counties south into northern West Virginia. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into tonight as low pressure tracks to our northwest, dragging a cold front across. The upper trough will remain the dominant feature through the end of the week with no major changes to the longwave pattern. More storms developing ahead of an approaching cold front should continue through the evening with MVFR and local IFR restrictions. Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough.
The high-res CAMs continue to show unstable air across the area, and current PoPs look good. The forecast area will continue to be influenced one more day by a slow moving upper low over the northern Great Lakes. Cyclonic flow associated with the low combined with a high pressure ridge axis over the Pacific northwest will result in a continued northwest flow aloft across our area today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today mainly across the eastern areas toward the Dakota border due to a weak backdoor front that slides into the area. However, temperatures will still be above normal for this time of year with readings in the lower 70s. High pressure ridging over the Pacific northwest shifts further east on Monday as the upper low over the Great Lakes begins to lose its grip over the eastern half of Montana.
420 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure continues building over the Inland Northwest early this week.
638 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 /12Z TAFS/ Cold front moved through KABI and KBBD around 11Z, and will move through KSOA and KJCT around 13Z. /issued 345 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Cold front had moved south of I-20 at 3 AM and should south of I-10 by 10 AM this morning. Cooler and cloudy otherwise behind the front today, with highs in the lower/mid 80s. It will be slightly cooler tonight, with lows in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
Generally rain free conditions expected through the afternoon and evening hours, but rain chances return overnight as a cold front pushes south across Texas. /issued 429 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Little change from yesterday expected during the day today as 500 mb ridging over the Gulf of Mexico shifts northeast through the day. The next cold front pushing across Texas will make decent headway today, making it into central Texas, but likely not making it as far south as the ranchlands. Highs today will be a degree or two cooler than yesterday as the 500 mb ridge shifts northeastward, but nonetheless still hot, with temperatures in the mid 90s east to around the century mark out west. Flash flood guidance remains on the high side, with widespread flooding not anticipated at this time.
The cold front does remain over AR, and generally still west of LIT near RUE, with a drier airmass and a northwest wind shift. Otherwise, any remaining rain tonight will be focused over far southern AR, as the cold front sags to that area. Mostly cooler and dry on Monday, except possibly far southern AR where forecast models continue to show some energy in the mean upper west flow to move across the area. A cold front over NW AR wl work sloly SEWD today.
450 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the central U. This trough amplifies over the cewntral U.
1013 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northeast NE, with arctic boundary well south and west of the region.
1050 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Cold and dry high pressure with north northwest flow aloft will be over the area tonight and Sunday with some lingering light snow in the far south tonight clearing on Sunday. Temperatures will be coldest in the north with a lee side trough beginning to develop with some warming central areas. Sunday night and Monday an upper level low will develop in the great basin with frontogenesis over Wyoming with east low level flow with developing light snow with very light accumulations. mainly an inch or two at best in the lower elevations and 2 to 3 inches in the east slopes of the mountains.
/issued 243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ Temperatures this afternoon are around 30 degrees cooler than yesterday behind the strong front that moved through last night. Further to the southeast, freezing rain is possible, but have kept PoPs low. Upper level ridging will build in early in the week with temperatures warming up to the low 50s on Monday.
144 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018 Forecast focus is on temperatures the next few days as a warmer and dryer airmass moves into the region as a low pressure system dives south along the west coast and the northwest flow aloft transitions to southwest flow aloft. The upper trough that brought snow to the region yesterday and overnight will continue to move east as a low center begins to drop south along the coast of Washington and Oregon.
1135 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Nearby high pressure to our south will provide the Northland another mostly clear and cold night. Some cloud cover will spread in from the northwest overnight with an approaching mid/upper level trough. This trough will be associated with a Clipper, which will be shifting from northern Manitoba this evening to far northern Ontario tomorrow. Its Arctic cold front will pass through the Northland Sunday, and brisk conditions are expected in the afternoon. Sunday night and Monday to be our last cold night of the forecast, with a ridge of high pressure that slides across the area during the day on Monday.
1138 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Snow is winding down from north to south as the upper trof axis continues to shift southward.
The strong low-level jet continues to pull abundant Gulf moisture north into the region with dewpoints over the southern valley in the lower 60s.
Patchy freezing drizzle will be likely as well. /Issued 919 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ Areas of freezing drizzle continue across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening per radar, surface observations and reports.
1145 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Focus remains on the winter weather we are experiencing this weekend, but there is an expectation of warmer weather this coming work week. That said, reports from surface observations show that freezing drizzle may still be the dominate precipitation type this afternoon across southern and central Missouri even when mixed with snow.
The cold front that will move through the area today is lingering near the Delta, down through central Louisiana. This is evident in the observations this morning where Greenville has dropped into the 40s whereas all other sites across the forecast area remains in the lower 60s.
The upper trough currently moving into the central Great Plains will move across the region Sun AM. High pressure will work into the region Sunday night into Monday with some clearing of the skies that will allow for temps to drop into the lower single digits for most.
144 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region today as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
Rains have diminished over the area with drier air aloft now filtering into the region ahead of a cold frontal passage to occur through the remainder of the night. Fog and low ceilings within IFR/LIFR will prevail overnight, while rains gradually diminish from west to east with the passage of a cold front. southeast Texas and the coastal waters ahead of a cold front that is projected into the coastal waters after sunrise. The cold front will push colder temperatures into the region by the late morning hours. As a result daytime highs are not projected to climb out of the low 60s.
1158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Expanded winter weather advisory to include Osage, Washington and Pawnee counties for the overnight hours, with areas of freezing drizzle ongoing. Observational and radar trends suggest the freezing drizzle will not be gone that early. Roads will improve some by mid morning, but temperatures will be slow to come above freezing.
133 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region today as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
1223 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the central U. This trough amplifies over the cewntral U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low off the CA coast with zonal flow across most of the U. Cold air comes into the area again 12z Thu with a trough that digs into the upper Great Lakes.
A cold front is currently moving south into South Texas.
75") ahead of a cold front shifts slowly e across se Ga/ne Fl.
At moment, freezing temperatures are not expected to coincide with measurable precip. Model runs remain in decent agreement with a southeastward trend of higher qpf over the past 24-36hours, and the highest amounts well to our southeast. Cold front will finally slide across the upper Ohio Valley Sunday night.
426 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Low pressure will move northeast from Kentucky today across western Pennsylvania to New York to along a stationary front. Another low will move across Ontario dragging a cold front across the region early Monday.
A cold front is moving across the area tonight with scattered rain and snow showers over northeast Arizona. A cold front currently located across southern Navajo and Apache counties will push out of the region overnight. Gusty winds have developed this afternoon in advance of a cold front pushing southward into northern Arizona. Chances for showers will develop into the evening and overnight hours, with the higher terrain near the Four Corners perhaps seeing up to an inch or so of snow, and trace amounts forecast elsewhere. Low pressure is anticipated to form off the southern California coast during the week. Unsettled conditions out ahead of this feature will lead to slight chances for showers much of the week, but the best chances for appreciable precipitation will be as the low pushes eastward and across Arizona.
The main 500mb trough will slowly come through later this morning which will help keep some light snow falling through about noon before that propagates east of the region this afternoon. Much of the saturated portion of the thermal profile is just a bit warmer than the dendritic growth zone in the -7 to -10C range though the peak omega appears to align with the 100mb stretch around 600-500mb where the DGZ is.
/issued 252 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ (Tonight and Sunday) A cold front has passed through much of the Lone Star State today leaving behind much cooler temperatures for tonight and tomorrow. In fact, rain and freezing drizzle chances are also included for most areas east of a Throckmorton to Sheffield line. Below freezing temperatures may allow for some patches of ice on elevated surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses, to develop. Otherwise, below freezing temperatures are expected for tonight. Lows will be in the 20s and lower 30s across most areas with high temperatures getting back into the lower 40s for tomorrow.
/issued 732 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018/ High pressure in place across the area through the weekend will keep warm conditions in place with S/SE winds becoming S/SW in the afternoons. Current forecast is on track with all of this and temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 60s. High pressure will keep this in place through the weekend.
Southerly flow (generally 10-15kts at most) will continue through tomorrow afternoon or so then quickly shift northerly as a cold frontal boundary rolls through Deep South Texas. Some gusty southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range have developed over the coastal counties associated with a weak coastal trough moving off to the southeast.
330 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Large scale pattern has been rather stagnant then last several days consisting of a broad trof over the CONUS with an upstream ridge sitting off the west coast. At the sfc, high pressure remains in control across the central Plains.
With a warm air aloft at 5 to 10 C at 775 MB, but with a much colder layer of -8 C at 870 MB and a very dry surface layer, the main expectation is sleet and/or freezing rain. Temperatures had fallen into the upper 20s in the Concho Valley,lower 20s in the Big Country, and just above freezing at Sonora and Junction. The main impact will be icy conditions on overpasses and bridges. At noon, the surface temperature should be rise above freezing and precipitation should be east of West Central Texas. Lows are expected in the lower to mid 20s.
431 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Low pressure will move northeast from Kentucky across western Pennsylvania to New York today along a stationary front. Another low will move across Ontario dragging a cold front across the region early Monday.
316 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Current WV imagery shows well defined mid to upper positively tilted trough working into Central Nebraska and Western KS at this hour. Therefore, will carry advisory for freezing drizzle for a few more hours until 13Z. Only have temps in the southern zones reaching around freezing highs topping out in the low 30s.
725 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Mins will range from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.
Strong onshore flow will develop on Tuesday with as an upper level trough rapidly moves toward Western Washington. Clouds and cooler conditions will spread into the area Tuesday.
1041 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front continues to push southeast into Central KS at this time. Not expecting this fog to last very long, as the cold front drops southeast shifting the winds around to the N-NW with increasing winds, mixing out the fog fairly rapidly. Another lobe of energy rotates through mean trough.
A cold front will move through early Tuesday morning and may bring additional -TSRA or -SHRA to the region. Mid-afternoon observations indicated stratus was eroding aggressively across far eastern NM ahead of discrete storms from Santa Rosa to Roswell within a Theta-E ridge. Otherwise, the brunt of surface based convection should depart the region before midnight ahead of deepening northerly flow behind the upper trough and cold front. On the heels of tonight's cold front, a more robust cold front (presently in northeast CO) should reach the CWA before sunrise ahead of 20-30 mph northerly winds.
Another boundary, in the form of a cold front, currently located over the Plains will be moving eastward and will be approaching TN by the end of the taf period.
A thermal trough will remain over the Willamette Valley and Cascades tonight. It then pushes east Tuesday, with resulting onshore flow bringing much cooler temperatures.
541 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 The probability for the next 6 to 14 days appears to favor cooler and wetter than what is usually expected. With that said, troughing will dominate the lower 2/3 of central NOAM with high latitude storms dropping into the upper Great Lakes region. With the Rockies and the High Plains being on the Western side of the trough cold air and Pacific mositure will easily drop southward and help verify the cool forecast. NAM guidance continues to trend upward behind this front which doesn't seem to make sense though upper heights will be increasing as ridging temporarily replaces the trough over the central states. Did go for the cooler side of guidance for Tuesday which will be at or slightly below normal.
932 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a strong upper low over the northern plains with a ridge of high pressure just off the west coast. At the surface, a cold front extends through northern Nebraska from a low centered over southern Minnesota. Generally, temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
1030 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Weak high pressure overspreading western and central PA late this evening with partial clearing over central and western areas. and mins will range from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.
722 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will clear skies out tonight, allowing for a cool and clear Tuesday morning.