Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The region continues to be influenced by broad high pressure at the surface and upper-level ridging aloft, which will continue through tonight with continued dry weather and mostly clear skies. Low temperatures will not be quite as cold as last night, but still range from the low and mid 50s across the interior and Gulf Coast to low to upper 60s along the east coast. The high pressure at the surface will gradually shift eastward into the western Atlantic during the short term period, with continued dry conditions expected. Moisture will slowly increase in the low- levels during the period, and with onshore east/northeast flow expected, scattered to occasionally broken stratocumulus will be possible across the region especially along the east coast.
Scattered showers and perhaps a rogue rumble of thunder is possible through the predawn hours this morning as activity with a prefrontal trough pushes eastward. At the time of writing this discussion, the cold frontal boundary was located near or slightly east of the Flint Hills of eastern Kansas and moving this way. Behind the cold front, winds will shift westerly and eventually northwesterly. Regardless, clearing is expected on Thanksgiving day with some slight moderation in daytime temperatures with upper level ridging moving into the area.
As cold front slowly approaches from the west today, our atmosphere will steadily moisten, especially over western areas-- where showers will become numerous by early afternoon. Still looks like slow-moving cold front will weaken as it moves into our area, and will only be getting near the Nashville area by 12z Thursday.
1128 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Upper closed low associated with trough through northern plains. Gulf of Alaska low and ridge over western CONUS and ridge over eastern Conus with strong closed low over the northeast Conus. This will keep overnight lows warm /lower 30s/ across our eastern zones, but across the west where the increasing subsidence and clearing is anticipated, lows in the lower to mid 20s are forecast. The high temperature forecast for Wednesday is a product of near term numerical guidance with a BC blend.
820 PM PST Tue Nov 22 2016 A trough moving across central California will bring scattered high clouds Wednesday. High pressure building over the Great Basin Wednesday night will bring warm, dry Santa Ana weather on Thanksgiving Day with gusty northeast winds in the mountain passes, foothills and inland valleys.
125 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Dry high pressure will gradually shift east today ahead of a weak front, with limited moisture, that will slowly move through late tonight and Thursday.
Surface inverted trough oriented along the Red River and will continue to propagate slowly east today. East of the valley ahead of the trough will maintain some chance pops as a mid level shear axis rotates through. Temperatures overall remaining above or at freezing however with cooler road surfaces could see some patchy icy spots for the morning commute and will continue to address possible impacts with an SPS. With dry mid levels will have to also monitor for more mist although no fog upstream behind trough so low confidence on mist potential. Column a little cooler so temperatures likely to drop a bit blo freezing.
At the surface, low pressure is centered over south central Kansas, heading east. Gusty northwest winds should slowly taper off this evening as the pressure gradients relax behind the departing low pressure. Due to this high, clear skies and no precipitation should be expected. North winds should go light and variable tomorrow morning as the high passes. Behind the high, south winds will develop as a weak lee trough develops along the front range.
A weak upper level trough will slide eastwards into the southeast states today and push a weak cold front into the region. However, with minimal deep moisture and the upper ridge holding strong across South Florida, any precip associated with the front is expected to dissipate before reaching the local forecast area.
A mid/upper level trough will move across southern Wisconsin today, and exit the east early this evening. Weak to moderate upper level divergence and 700 mb upward motion ahead of the trough axis. Showers expected through the day until the mid level trough exits.
Several bands of showers were located near and east of the trough, into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. In the near term, bands of showers will continue to rotate east through the forecast area from the upper low in Iowa. Northern counties will likely have the highest coverage of showers and periods of drizzle through the morning, before the rain/drizzle tapers off from west to east during the afternoon and evening. As the trough axis progresses eastward through the day, a lighter wind and low level moisture convergence are expected to produce a band of lower visibilities.
/Issued 612 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016/ High pressure over the area will move east as frontal system pushes into the region Wednesday. A cold front now over the Central and Southern plains states will move east rapidly over the next 24 hours pushing increased cloud cover and precipitation into North GA in the short term. The highest POPs in the forecast right now are right around 30 percent between 00z-06z Thu.
Main area of WAA precip across the CWA currently, with the additional development expected this evening into the overnight hours as the inverted trough feature and and main upper wave move across the area. As some cooler/drier air moves in on the backside of the system, expect some wintry mix of precip across the far north. Could see some rain changing over to or mixing with snow or freezing rain across the far north, with the best chances for any light snow in the far northwest around sunrise. With the high surface moisture and precipitation, may end up with some fog in spots as well especially across northern IA when winds go lighter overnight.
1046 PM MST Tue Nov 22 2016 Current radar and satellite trends indicate snow showers are now limited only to the higher terrain in the central mountains east of Aspen and near Rabbit Ears Pass. An approaching trough will move through Idaho and northern Nevada tomorrow afternoon, resulting in southwesterly flow. The open-wave trough will take a northern track and clip the northern and central mountains Thanksgiving Day.
247 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Cooler and drier conditions will prevail today in the wake of the cold front currently pushing through eastern Oklahoma. A narrow cleared area is visible on satellite imagery and surface observations immediately behind the front, with a fairly solid area of low clouds to the west of the clearing in the wraparound moisture near the upper low. The warmup will be shortlived as winds shift to the north and slightly cooler air moves back into the area behind the aforementioned wave Thanksgiving night. A large upper trough will organize in the western United States during this same time frame, making a close enough approach by late in the weekend to bring increasing moisture and a resulting increase in shower chances and possibly thunderstorm potential.
1118 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 VFR conditions will predominate through around 00z tomorrow even as cloud cover increases through the day in response to a cold front sliding into the region.
555 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 A strengthening southerly flow, ahead of an APPROACHING low pressure system, will bring increasing mid level temperatures today. A cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over northwest Minnesota this evening, tracking into north central Minnesota overnight. ELevated freezing levels around 14,000 ft and warm cloud processes will limit large hail threat. The strong cold front will move east of the Northland on Thursday Night, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms out of the region as the night wears on.
Isolated rain showers and are expected to fire up along the Virginia and West Virginia borders later this morning, as a weak area of low pressure moves up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. The rain is then expected to spread westward across the area, as the low moves northeast this afternoon and evening. There should be lull in the activity from late tonight through early Thursday morning, as we lose heating overnight and the departing area of low pressure moves further away. This small scale system, combined with a weak area of low pressure aloft, will be what sparks showers and storms across eastern Kentucky on Thursday.
Afternoon and evening storms could be strong with 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE and 0 to 6 km shear around 30 kts over the high plains. The coldest air will lag quite a bit behind the initial wind shift, but most model guidance shows H7 temps falling from near +18 C at 00z Thu to less than +10 C at 12z Thu, so expect high temperatures to be around 15 degrees cooler than what we will see today.
422 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Upper level ridge centered across Texas will remain in place, with southwesterly flow and the best chances for thunderstorms across the western half of the Panhandles. Cloud cover today should keep high temperatures in the low 90s in most locations, and should also limit diurnally driven convection from the coverage we saw yesterday. The upper ridge will attempt to build northward again Thursday and should help temperatures warm into the upper 90s or low 100s. Beyond that, weak ridging remains across the Southern U.
A very dynamic upper level low, currently centered over northwest Montana this morning, will eventually end up over southern Alberta by this evening.
4 inches across the region with GOES/Polar Imagery keeping the highest PWATs (1. Again, with warm temperatures aloft and ridging overhead, will maintain a dry forecast, but continued silent 10 POPs for very isolated convection.
351 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2016 Upper ridge axis remains over Colorado but is shifting eastward. Cold front should come down through the plains toward morning.
207 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2016 Radar trends indicate convection over Washington and Lincoln counties in Colorado is weakening as the lower atmosphere further stabilizes and outflow begins to surge away from storm updrafts. 18Z water vapor imagery indicated short wave trough moving over the periphery of large H5 ridge centered over the four corners area. cold front had passed through majority of the cwa.
Similar to yesterday, the low-level flow around the ridge axis today will be relatively light from the southeast over our southern zones to more southwest over the Nature Coast region. Upper ridging will reside from the Southern Plains eastward to the western Atlantic, with a subtle weakness/trough in the upper ridge over the southeastern U. From Thursday night into the upcoming weekend, expect weak upper ridging will reside over the eastern Gulf and the Florida peninsula. Both the European and GFS depict the weak upper trough will become cutoff with a weak upper low retrograding west across the northern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will remain over the coastal waters through the next several days with the sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
As the low level jet veers to the east overnight into the morning, there is a chance new showers and thunderstorms form over the souther portion of the CWA. After the low level jet dissipates in the late morning there is no foreseeable precipitation through Thursday. Temperatures will reach into the low 90s today with Heat Indices around 100F, just slightly above normal for this time of year.
346 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 At the surface, weak high pressure across the eastern portion of the country. Upper ridging centered over Texas. There have been a couple of thunderstorm complexes move southwest around the east end of the upper ridge across the Mississippi coast during the post sunset hours.
Mid-level anticyclone has become centered over South Central TX and looks to further dry out low levels and raise max temps. Expansion of the mid-level ridge into the Northern Plains should result in lighter sfc winds over TX, which should allow for better cooling overnight while continuing trends for fewer low clouds at daybreak.
A cold front will finally push out of the state later this morning, as well as lingering cloud cover. It will be cooler today, down 10+ degrees, which will turn out to be right around normal for early August.
The high- resolution models did poorly with the complex yesterday morning, and they are probably not too skilled with this one either. The 00z nam even closes off a weak 500 mb low over the Lower Ohio Valley by this evening. However, that will be a short-lived dry-out as the 500 mb ridge starts to get suppressed southward. A cold front will drop southward toward the Lower Ohio Valley into a very moist and unstable air mass.
The upper high pressure ridge has a hold on the region.
310 AM PDT WED AUG 3 2016 The high will weaken into midweek.
CVKING Wish I could say with certainty that this would be the final night/early morning round of convection, but the warm front is not expected to move east of the area, in fact it is probably going to be bisecting the CWA by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should warm into the lower/middle 90s on Thursday, especially across central Missouri. Certainly will be enough moisture around to have dewpoints in at least the lower 70s.
high pressure will remain in control. /issued 240 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid level ridging will remain centered over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, with high pressure stretched across the north Gulf of Mexico.
This should suppress convection until late in the day allowing for a hot afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 90s at most locations.
319 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 High pressure will crest across the area this morning before sliding offshore into the gulf of Maine.
A cold front will swing through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing relief from the heat, but until then expect after highs likely in the lower to mid 90s for Wednesday. There will be a bit of a pattern change with that cold front sliding south of our forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Dry conditions will prevail into late Thursday night before a cold front arrives to bring a chance of showers and storms followed by cooler and less humid conditions for the weekend. Have opted for dry forecast into Wednesday as western periphery of ridge appears to be keeping convection from making much eastward progress across Illinois, with most activity either weakening or diving southeast. With ridge only moving slightly east over the next 24 hours any precipitation will struggle to move in warranting removal of any mention of precipitation (still non-zero pops in grids). Temperatures will nudge a few degrees warmer with highs in the middle to upper 80s and slowly increasing humidity. Upper level ridge will take hold Weds night into Thursday night with hot and muggy conditions prevailing and little chance for convection due to strong capping despite favorable instability.
1030 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 2016 Low pressure moves east tonight.
643 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to expand over the region through Thursday providing warm and mainly dry conditions.
A large upper ridge centered over Texas will drift westward through the short term.
Temperatures will be on the hot side today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Another hot day is expected on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
358 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Hot conditions will persist for much of the next seven days as an upper level ridge over the South Central U. The ridge has retrograded west into Central Texas over the last 24 hours, but subsidence from the ridge should still be strong enough to suppress most convective development.
402 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 (Today and Tonight) Not much change to the ongoing forecast, with the upper level high still in place.
As low pressure deepens over the northern high plains. but the models agree on the development of convection across nw Nebraska late this afternoon with the arrival of the cold front. Cool air settles across the area for Thursday as cold front pushes south.
The Sun should burn off the fog fairly rapidly this morning and with weak mixing developing towards midday and into the afternoon hours, leaned toward the warmer GFS as the NAM/ECMWF seem a bit too cool.
and this will continue to be the case as the high center only very slowly drifts westward over the next 36 hours.
411 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 High pressure will remain in control of our weather for today and Thursday with warmer and partly sunny days. The higher resolution models continue to show isolated showers over the lake plain, perhaps in response to lake breeze boundaries. Our upper level ridge in place now does flatten a bit this afternoon but model soundings are very dry in the mid levels.
This, combined with dew points generally in the low to mid 70s, will again result in widespread afternoon heat index values from 106-110.
A fairly formidable cold front by summer standards will be pushing into western Kansas on Thursday, thanks to a strong mid- latitude cyclone crossing the Dakotas. Additional storms may develop south of the front itself in one or two convergence/trough axes.
A weak upper level low will slowly drift eastward across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night through Thursday night. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday, with the cooler readings expected across our east where increased cloud cover and precip chances will likely keep temps a tad cooler.
Upper low moving across southern Canada will drag a strong cold front through our region.
Lee trof/dry line located from south central MT to southeast WY, with low pressure over the Big Horns area. Upper level analysis shows weak ridging over the northern high plains, with high pressure to the south of the region. Very warm conditions will continue into Wednesday, with the highest humidities south and east of the Black Hills. A cold front passing through during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday will bring a cooldown to more seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week. Cold front will approach far northwestern portions of the cwa by late Wednesday morning, then slide southeast across the forecast area in the afternoon and evening.
333 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Thunderstorms with a risk of severe weather is the highlight of the short term period. Currently, an upper level low was centered over the Idaho/British Columbia border. The nose of the low level jet extended to northwestern ND, with the eastern edge near Bismarck. The upper level low is forecast to move east along the Canadian border, then lift northeast into southern Saskatchewan by this evening. An upper level ridge builds into the Northern Plains as another upper low moves into the west coast.
304 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to expand over the region through Thursday providing warm and mainly dry conditions.
Better chances for storms increase tonight as a thunderstorm complex in association with an upper level low moves southeast over Middle Tennessee. This upper low/wave will be the focus for storms on Thursday helping increase the coverage compared to today.
1228 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 A subtle trough boundary will finish moving east through the Northland. High pressure will move into the Northland tonight, providing clear skies and negligible wind speeds overnight. Leaned on the cooler guidance, such as the consensus of the MOS, considering the good radiational cooling expected. The high pressure will shift east through the Great Lakes region Wednesday, and warm southerly flow will develop across the Northland. A strong low pressure system will move along the international border Wednesday night through Thursday night. A warm front will have moved north into northern Minnesota by Wednesday evening. A cold front will sweep into NE MN behind the line Thursday morning and into NW WI by afternoon.
230 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2016 Current surface map places low across central Montana with trof through eastern Wyoming. Water vapor has upper low crossing the northern Rockies. NAM/HRRR/RAP in decent agreement with cold front timing, moving into northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota by late morning. Cold front moves south and east of forecast area late tonight, with cooler and dry conditions across the area for Thursday.
145 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 Northwest flow aloft as an upper level ridge moves through Thursday.
Upper ridging largely dominates the Southern Plains for the foreseeable future.
All kidding aside, the upper ridge will persist, centered to the southwest of the area. Several impulses will move through around the periphery of the ridge, allowing for isolated, primarily diurnal convection.
Still not sure about coverage of storms, but with increasing deep layer shear as mid level trof approaches, we could end up with a line of storms which is what some CAM solutions are progging. Further east the high dewpoints will probably hold temperatures back some, but mid 90s look good for now.
626 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An area of weak high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will shift to the east on Thursday.
A weak cold front extended from west central WI into the far northwest portion of GRB CWA and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan early this morning. The cold front is expect to continue to sag southeast and weaken as it pushes into central and northeast WI during the day. A stronger Canadian cold front is expected to move into northwest WI late Thursday afternoon.
154 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 Thunderstorms with very heavy rain will continue well into the night as a cold front enters the area and stalls.
239 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016 Latest water vapor imagery showing a weak mid-level trough swinging through northern WI early this morning with a broken line of showers/thunderstorms staying just north of the local forecast area. Otherwise, a rather muggy airmass was in place with temperatures as of 2 am ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Mid-level heights rebound behind departing wave with high pressure also in place at the surface. As a result, look for heat indices in the lower to middle 90s south of I-94. Attention focused on incoming fairly strong mid-level wave/cold front Thursday into Thursday night with ample warmth/moisture for the front to work with.
Upper ridge will build wwd today which will attempt to push the mid level moist axis farther w.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE, PREVIOUS RAIN, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, THERE MAY BE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT BECAME STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BDL Long-range models agree on possibly a fairly active weather pattern setting up by Thursday as a large upper ridge retreats just far enough westward to place the state on the active eastern periphery.
Weak upper level trough is tracking across the Canadian and ID/MT border this morning. A cold front has moved through our region and passed to the east. Southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon are presently in the dry slot position of the trough.
322 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 A convection-free night across the area will lead to a warmer day today.
1113 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A weak upper level low pressure trough over western Wyoming will bring some showers and thunderstorms over the west spreading east through the night. A cold front will begin to move into the north in the afternoon and evening hours.
141 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An area of weak high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will move little through Wednesday then shift to the east on Thursday.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge firmly in place over the southern half of the country. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the southeast. In the short term, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate our region.
A weak upper level ridge will build into the region through Thursday.