Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED UPON PASSAGE. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. LOCAL URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT COMING THROUGH STRONG AS PITTSBURGH METRO TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE THE SURROUNDING RURAL ENVIRONS DROP INTO THE 50S AND IN SOME CASES 40S ALREADY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALONG THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO DIP IN FROM CANADA. ULTIMATELY THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL PROVE TOO MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH THE DROP IN H500 HEIGHTS/H850 TEMPS.
/ISSUED 438 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. RIDGING ACROSS OUR EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY TRAINING RAINS ACROSS TEXAS OVERNIGHT SPAWNING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAINLY WEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. DO NOT THINK WE NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH YET FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MAY NOT NEED TOO IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
438 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. RIDGING ACROSS OUR EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY TRAINING RAINS ACROSS TEXAS OVERNIGHT SPAWNING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAINLY WEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. DO NOT THINK WE NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH YET FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MAY NOT NEED TOO IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE, THOUGH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AND A CONTINUING SWELL WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT AND MARINE HAZARDS IN PLACE FOR AWHILE LONGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS BLOCKED PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH A CLOSED HIGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE W. THE CUT-OFF LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MUCH- NEEDED SOAKING RAIN WAS STUCK OVER CO. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CO THRU TOMORROW. SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT BISECTED THE PLAINS FROM N-S FROM MN-TX. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS IN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT A WAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
Along and east of this boundary will be the region of higher precip chances as influence from the extremely slow moving upper low remains in place.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO UTAH MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURING LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH THE TAIL END POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN WEBB COUNTY LATER TODAY. THE LOCATIONS THAT FAVOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AND OUR WESTERN HALF OF COUNTIES. WHILE THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS.
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTHWESTWARD AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WY. CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO DRYING ALOFT). THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY TUES AFTN.
209 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016 High pressure will keep winds light and temperatures well above seasonal averages through midweek. Pleasant and unseasonably warm conditions will persist with the region under high pressure into Tuesday. Models are in agreement that a weak wave will pass south-to-north along the Sierra associated with an upper low off the California Coast Tuesday afternoon and evening. Since the primary ridge axis will remain over central Nevada, the influence of the wave will be severely stunted and limited to the Sierra as the parent low is shunted around the ridge's western periphery. Moisture is the limiting factor since this ridge will not be moving anywhere quickly and very dry air is ensconced across the region.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY (WEAK COLD FRONT) LINGERS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENHANCING LIFT WITH PWS AT OR ABOVE 1. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS WHILE ELONGATING EAST TO WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. WITH A STRONG OMEGA RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS OMEGA RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BY A TROUGH DESCENDING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. FINALLY BREAKING UP THE BLOCKING PATTERN OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
610 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL KEEP CRITERIA BELOW THAT NEEDED FOR RED FLAG.
AND WARMER AIR ON E OR SE WINDS OVER SE SD. THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL STILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT DEPARTS.
CALHOUN COUNTY WL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA OF 3 FT MSL.
/ISSUED 309 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016/ GA REMAINS UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
249 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER-RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STAYS IN CONTROL.
/issued 245 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough now centered over western CO, w/a broad swath of convection approaching east Texas/Texas Gulf Coast. Closer to home, a cold front is moving thru West Texas, and has sharpened up a weak dryline over the eastern fringes of the CWA, and along and east of this feature appear to be the best chances for convection later this afternoon/evening. Cold front will continue thru the region overnight, w/thicknesses really coming down over the next 24 hours.
130 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
with the main vorticity advection along the eastern edge of the low and western limb of the ridge. As heights begin to lower along the northern edge of the ridge with the approach of the western U. Although the low level moisture trajectory remains roughly parallel to the upper level flow (limiting downstream saturation of parcels), there is gradual steering of winds at upper levels toward daybreak Tuesday, allowing for some eastward propagation of the rain shield.
352 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
630 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
238 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF ON SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LOW WANE FOR THE GLD FA, THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING.
555 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR ONE MORE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DEGRADE WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BACKDOOR FRONT TO BEGIN DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHOULD WARM BACK UP INTO THE HIGH 60S TO LOWER 70S WHEREAS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AS THE FLOW WILL BE BLOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
144 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
312 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK. A MOISTURE STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY.
The prominent upper ridge currently centered from MS into the Great Lakes will break down and be suppressed well southward with height falls of 30-60m in response to increased upper troffing from eastern Canada into the eastern U. Glass The deep western upper low/trof will be slow moving and take a while to get here, however ahead of it, a series of weak short wave trofs will translate across the area in the southwest flow aloft.
345 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CREATING A WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DUE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRETCHING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
543 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOW 60S AROUND BURLINGTON TO THE LOWER 50S N/NE OF THE QUAD CITIES.
335 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 The high pressure ridge over the Midwest will weaken and retreat southward today as a trough moves into southeast Canada. This will allow the closed low over the central Rockies to edge closer with thicker high clouds moving in late in the afternoon. Highs again should generally be in the low 80s. and low pressure moving into the northern Plains. Models continue to trend slower with backdoor cold front moving southward out of WI and into northeast IL Tue afternoon with much cooler air staying north of central IL. Cutoff low will weaken and eventually open up into an upper level trof as it tracks eastward into the upper Midwest Wed night and through IL on Thu. Cooler highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu due to more clouds and showers around.
The rest of the west central and southwest Kansas region was within the dry intrusion air stream as the cyclone (still centered over Colorado) is now significantly occluded. The cyclone will continue out west, but we will be watching a smaller scale perturbation rotate around the base of the low, across south central/southeast Colorado later tonight, This feature will lead to enhanced deep tropospheric lifting and subsequent precipitation. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to around 60 across far west central KS to the upper 60s across far south central KS The initial portion of this forecast period will be cool and damp as what's left of the ongoing Colorado upper low lifts out into Nebraska.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VERY WARM WEATHER AGAIN TODAY TO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND TODAY, SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TO RISE TO HIGHS (LOWER 70S) AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD COMMENCE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD INLAND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST SIDE. SEE TABLE BELOW: CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE AREA: MEDFORD: 87/1934 ROSEBURG: 86/1939 KLAMATH FALLS: 76/1994 NORTH BEND: 74/1918 MT SHASTA CITY: 78/1939 MONTAGUE: 82/1994 ALTURAS: 83/1954 TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN OFFSHORE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BACK THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
Omega blocking pattern continues with 584m ridge from magnolia state thru Ohio valley.
Skies will remain sunny this afternoon with temperatures remaining cooler than they have been the past few days. Upper level height falls and associated surface cold front will occur over the central and northern Plains this afternoon. with temps in the lower to mid 30s. By the time this front makes it into the Midsouth late tonight, it should arrive dry, but will provide a reinforcing push of cooler air for our weekend.
VFR after the lower conditions lift and burn off over the next couple of hours. The front may become more cold frontal and dip slightly southward later this morning remaining very weak. For Saturday we should remain dry aside from any left over outflow boundaries, weak cold front, well to our north that try to push southward.
1147 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Hydro Another low pressure system will move in from the west and cause rain to redevelop this afternoon through tonight. The next low pressure system moving in from the west will bring rain showers by mid to late this afternoon which will become more widespread this evening aided by mid level frontogenetical forcing. It will be unseasonably cool Saturday night with min temps mainly in the upper 20's north of I-96 to the lower 30's near to south of I-96.
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A strong surface based ridge is keeping VFR conditions across the terminals this morning.
1129 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A reinforcing cold front crosses Saturday morning.
For today, high pressure in place across northern Arizona will lead to another warm day, with high temperatures forecast to be around 10 degrees above normal. Over the weekend, an approaching low pressure system will cause increasing southwest winds, cooling temperatures, and slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain.
A cold front will sweep across the region tonight.
957 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build into the region this evening along with cooler and drier air. A dry front will move through the region Saturday evening with additional cooler air behind the front.
1227 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure will slide offshore today as a cold front approaches from the west.
1220 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A reinforcing cold front crosses Saturday morning.
Upper low moving east a bit into far nw ontario and a short wave is dropping south and then east with one short wave trough entering northeast MN into the central RRV. So did expand the low pop for isold RW- to all of the RRV and much of nw MN today. Today will be dominated by gusty north winds as a secondary cold front which has entered northeastern ND makes it way south early this morning. Even with clouds remaining the strength of the cold air will allow temperatures to drop to below freezing. A little warmer but still well below normal.
1032 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front in NW KS will approach/move into parts of northern OK by late this afternoon/early evening. The cold front will continue to move across the region tonight with showers and thunderstorms remaining possible overnight into Saturday morning. A cold front will move south across OK into north TX tonight. By afternoon, a ribbon of higher dewpoints will get drawn northward ahead of a cold front that will move into far northwest oklahoma by late today. A strong cold front, at least by May standards, will then move south through Oklahoma and into Texas into Saturday.
741 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A strong cold front will move across the forecast area tonight ushering in much below normal conditions. The cold front just exiting the forecast area. Will see some sun breaks this afternoon but temps will still top out about 10 degrees cooler than ydy. Models in good agreement dropping arctic cold front. At the upper levels deep upper trough digs over the NERN states. Temps will hover in the lower to mid 50s all day.
/issued 732 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ A strong surface based ridge is keeping VFR conditions across the terminals this morning.
Winds are expected to remain in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph with highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Northwest flow aloft will dominate the pattern through mid week when the upper flow shows more of a transient ridge.
Avbl PWAT has increased to ~33mm along with a developing westerly component to deep layer wind flow ascd with an approaching frontal trough. Presence of strong surface heating and slightly cooler than normal temp of -9. (from prev disc) Winds will veer from south/southwest today to west overnight as a frontal trough moves across north Florida.
A new cold front will drop south into the state late in the period. this will be short lived as another cold front will drop south through the state late tonight into Sat morning. with another shot of cooler and drier air to the state.
632 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Satellite imagery this morning shows a large trough in place across much of eastern Canada with its axis currently sweeping east through the Ohio River Valley. Add in a little frontogenic lift from the rapidly advancing cold front along with the tongue of moisture, and thunderstorms look likely to develop this afternoon as it pushes into northern Missouri. Additionally, there will be a decent 35 to 45 knot southwest H8 jet streak ahead of the trough as it moves through, thus resulting in 0-6KM shear values in the 40 to 50 knot range.
1022 AM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 With the upper level ridge building in, drier air/subsidence should limit shower activity through this evening for much of central and Southwest Montana. Clouds will continue to dissipate this evening as high pressure ridging and drier air moves into western half of the state.
High pressure over northern Arizona will lead to another warm day, with high temperatures around 10 degrees above average. An approaching low pressure system will cause increasing southwest winds, cooling temperatures, and slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain over the weekend.
903 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Cold front exits east this morning. A reinforcing cold front crosses Saturday morning.
VFR cloud deck continues across the area with the cold front now to the east of the terminals.
537 AM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Another unseasonably warm day expected today due in part to ridging aloft and westerly downslope flow at the surface. upper trof dropping through the Dakotas and upper midwest will drive a surface front southward through the plains today. Should start to see stratus develop along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast Mts and I-25 corridor around 06z. This will mark the beginning of a trend towards cooler and eventually wetter weather into the longer range portions of the forecast. meteorological trend will be towards wetter and cooler conditions during the balance of the longer term with primary issues being temperatures.
1200 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Marine Another low pressure system will move in from the west and cause rain to redevelop this afternoon through tonight. The next low pressure system moving in from the west will bring rain showers by mid to late this afternoon which will become more widespread this evening aided by mid level frontogenetical forcing. It will be unseasonably cool Saturday night with min temps mainly in the upper 20's north of I-96 to the lower 30's near to south of I-96.
906 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure will slide offshore today as a cold front approaches from the west.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a weak pressure pattern will prevail this afternoon. In the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will move over the panhandle of Florida today.
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Ridge over the west and east coasts at H5. Closed low over the Arrowhead of Minnesota with a trough into the Ohio Valley. Upper low over Northern Minnesota will retrograde today and push a cold front through Nebraska through the day. with upper jet dynamics and upslope flow this evening slight chance showers temperatures falling into the low 30s from the interstate 80 corridor north to the Dakota border by morning. Yesterdays lows had LBF at 31 and 850mb temperatures 5C cooler Saturday morning.
749 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Aviation Another low pressure system will move in from the west and cause rain to redevelop this afternoon through tonight. The next low pressure system moving in from the west will bring rain showers by mid to late this afternoon which will become more widespread this evening aided by mid level frontogenetical forcing. It will be unseasonably cool Saturday night with min temps mainly in the upper 20's north of I-96 to the lower 30's near to south of I-96.
805 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Surface analysis early this morning reveals a cold front extending from Central Nebraska into far Northeast Colorado moving southward. A cold front will move through the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites around 19Z to 21Z today shifting the winds to the north and northeast 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots. and then the cold front will push across the Amarillo TAF site around 23Z today to 01Z Saturday. Some models want to take most of the convection south of our area with the cold front, while others want to develop elevated storms north of the front. At this point it looks like there may be a lull in the showers and thunderstorms during the day on Saturday as upper level heights rise with a short wave ridge moving over.
The net result has been to veer surface winds to a more W-WNW direction south of Interstate-10 despite the surface cold front only having made it to roughly a Pensacola, to Marianna, to Fitzgerald line as of 15Z. This veering of winds ahead of the cold front should reduce convergence along the front, but enhance convergence along portions of the sea breeze early this afternoon. Much drier air in the mid levels of the troposphere, as sampled by the 12Z BMX sounding, should push into the northwest portions of our area this afternoon behind the cold front as well.
Northwesterly flow will keep temps cooler in the mid 70s and WV satellite shows drier air filtering into the region to provide mostly clear to clear skies across the forecast area. JMS /ISSUED 554 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ For 12Z TAFs: High pressure will continue to build across the area today.
A strong cold front is forecast to push east through the state during the late morning and afternoon hours on saturday. but with a risk of frost and freezing temperatures especially across northern Pennsylvania. to the lower 70s throughout much of the Susquehanna Valley). clearing skies with a decreasing and generally light westerly breeze will occur tonight as a ridge of high pressure noses ne into the state from the Tennessee Valley. to the low 50s in the southeast. The dominate feature through the mid range of the forecast will be a large upper low that will be moving through southern Canada and through the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast. Showers associated with this feature and its sfc cold front could reach far nw PA by 14/12Z.