Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A little exciting on radar earlier this evening with an interesting storm signature across south-central Orange County with outflow boundary/cell merger enhancing the low-level helicity locally. Low pressure will develop early Mon just offshore SC coast and move NE away from the area. The upper trough axis will cross the area in the morning and early afternoon. The high clouds will decrease especially across the north as the upper jet shifts SE across the area but there will be quite a bit of Gulf stratocu pushing east in the deep westerly flow. On Monday, low pressure is forecast to develop just offshore Carolina coast.
Low pressure was over northeast Missouri with a trailing cold front back into Oklahoma. Active wx expected this taf cycle as a cold front passes with a band of showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds.
Scattered TSRA along a cold front continues to push across ERN OK this evening.
This system, with its strong inflow of moisture from the south, and very strong dynamics and a negatively tilted upper trough could produce severe convection well to our north and west. The above noted system that will impact the area late tonight and on Monday is a deepening area of low pressure moving across the southern Missouri River Valley. The low itself should head to the ENE, reaching northern Illinois Monday, and over Lake Erie by the evening. A cold front trailing south of the low will also move to the east, reaching NW Alabama in the mid to late morning tomorrow, and rapidly sweep to the east, being east of the region in the middle afternoon. The showers should end as the cold front sweeps across the area in the afternoon.
740 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Aviation - Rain and windy storm moving in this evening - Significant river rises expected along and south of I-96 corridor; no significant flooding expected - Rain and windy storm moving in this evening An impressive low has moved into Southwest Iowa, with an associated warm front stretching across north-central Indiana and Ohio. This front is slowly moving northward, and the Iowa low pressure center will move steadily eastward along this front tonight and tomorrow.
1036 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 The mean layer ridge centered over the Yucatan is squashed from the broad belt of westerlies racing across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A diffuse warm frontal boundary stretches west from the northern Bahamas to the central Gulf. A weak, broad dome of high pressure will remain entrenched across the Atlantic, with the associated ridge axis extending across Florida.
Strong south to southwest winds aloft will continue to result in rain-shadowing in the lower elevations this evening, but winds are forecast to weaken overnight allowing more of the precipitation to reach the lower elevations after midnight. The cold front will shift through Monday afternoon with chances for precipitation behind the front Monday night confined to the mountains.
Starting the period, a trough knocks on the door of the Plains states and will pass through during the day Tuesday through Tuesday night. Once this rain event concludes, a ridge builds into the western CONUS and works towards the Dakotas through the latter half of the workweek.
Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely at times this morning as a low pressure system passes to the south of the area. Winds are expected to subside later this afternoon and this evening as the low moves off to the east and winds turn to a more northerly direction. Winds will eventually settle in the 10 to 15 mph range by late tonight into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes.
Quiet, cooler weather expected Monday. Current models show upper level ridging settling into the region as the low pressure moves out towards the east.
220 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Cold front is currently to our northwest and barreling down towards our area. The actual cold front will not push through until this afternoon, so expect for a brief warmup this morning until around lunchtime followed by a noticeable cool down into the afternoon. Expect for cloud coverage to slowly move out overnight and through the first half of the day tomorrow as an upper-level ridge moves into the area. Tomorrow will be on the cooler side of things once again with temps spanning the 50s to mid 60s.
In the upper levels a ridge is moving across the Rockies into the central plains. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through the short term as an upper level ridge builds over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will slide off to the east with lee troughing developing across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 30s to low 40s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 60s across north central Kansas to around 80 degrees across far southwestern Kansas. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through Tuesday as an upper level ridge slides over the Plains with continued lee troughing across eastern Colorado.
1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A cold front continues to approach from the nw tonight, bringing with it some remote chances of a shwr/tstm or two. Cold front will continue swd through this morning, bringing light nwly to nly winds in its wake. /issued 1016 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/ Convection has been slow to develop along the approaching cold front this evening, with the front reaching from near a FSM, to just NW of Hugo, to DAL and just N of CPT line as of 03Z. The latest visible satellite imagery indicates an area of agitated cu developing to our NW over ECntrl and Srn OK, along a cold front steadily progressing E across the state into NW TX.
The above noted system that will impact the area late tonight and on Monday is a deepening area of low pressure moving across the southern Missouri River Valley. The low itself should head to the ENE, reaching northern Illinois Monday, and over Lake Erie by the evening. A cold front trailing south of the low will also move to the east, reaching NW Alabama in the mid to late morning tomorrow, and rapidly sweep to the east, being east of the region in the middle afternoon. The showers should end as the cold front sweeps across the area in the afternoon. Cooler air filtering in Mon night will bring lows by Tuesday morning in the mid 40s. Generally sunny skies are expected later that day with highs a bit cooler in the mid/upper 60s.
1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A cold front will continue to work its way across the terminals overnight and will finally clear the state by early afternoon. Tonight Through Tuesday A strong upper low continues near the Great Lakes with a short wave moving through the Plains. This short wave will affect Arkansas tonight and a ridge will develop over the Rockies. The upper ridge will translate to the Mississippii River for Tuesday. A cold front in central Oklahoma will continue to move east this evening and overnight with severe thunderstorms possible. Dew points are currently in the low 60s to near 70 degrees. High pressure and drier air will bring clear skies for Monday with a breezy northwest wind.
Low pressure was over northeast Missouri with a trailing cold front back into Oklahoma.
1255 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Showers will move north of the region overnight, along with a warm front. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms move back in this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. Shower chances will ramp up again this afternoon as an upper trough, and its associated sfc cold front, approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue tonight and Tuesday as the main upper low crosses the region.
Most of the area will start with cloud cover and easterly winds for the morning and then by afternoon we should see the clouds quickly depart as an upper level ridge moves into the central plains. Temperatures will vary from the mid 60s around Hays where the clouds and cooler air will hang around the longest to the lower 80s by Elkhart as dry southwesterly winds will be approaching by late afternoon. The shear quickly turns to the south as the negative tilt trough moves into eastern Colorado and the storms should grow quickly upscale into a squall line for our eastern counties.
1050 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 (This evening through Monday) Cold front, currently just south and east of the I-44 corridor will continue to move quickly southeast this afternoon and this evening. During the day on Monday, this high will shift eastward with winds coming back around to the south and southeast through the day. They may get a bit breezy out west as surface pressure gradient tightens as pressure falls occur across the high Plains in advance of our next storm system. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday most locales, however parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will once again see afternoon temps climb into the 80s.
402 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms move back in this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. Shower chances will ramp up again this afternoon as an upper trough, and its associated sfc cold front, approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue tonight and Tuesday as the main upper low crosses the region.
High clouds on SW flow aloft ahead of an upper trough have moved into NE Montana overnight. Tight surface gradient between high pressure to the east and low pressure over Alberta has produced gusty east to SE winds over the area overnight that will continue for several more hours. It looks like it will be a SW to NE axis of rainfall which marches from west to east across the region along a cold front.
Breezy northwest winds will bring much cooler air into the region today, with highs only in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Dry conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday night as weak high pressure builds in from the north and an upper level ridge slides across the Mississippi valley. Continued north winds, gradually turning east by Tuesday night, will keep daytime highs Tuesday below normal in the 60 to 65 degree range, and lows near seasonable in the lower to middle 40s both nights.
Strong cold front lays across eastern Washington through eastern Oregon and into northern California this morning.
Most of the area will start with cloud cover and easterly winds for the morning and then by afternoon we should see the clouds quickly depart as an upper level ridge moves into the central plains. Temperatures will vary from the mid 60s around Hays where the clouds and cooler air will hang around the longest to the lower 80s by Elkhart as dry southwesterly winds will be approaching by late afternoon. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through Tuesday as an upper level ridge slides over the Plains with continued lee troughing across eastern Colorado.
High clouds crossing northern and central New Mexico tonight will keep overnight lows several degrees warmer than normal.
An approaching low pressure system from the west will bring increasing southeasterly winds to much of the CWA today. Buffer soundings suggest slightly better mixing winds, especially for the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau.
221 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A low pressure system will move east across the region through the day on Monday, leading to occasional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. A cooler and drier airmass will then settle into the area through mid week. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to move east and into the CWA ahead of an approaching cold front. Ahead of the low/front, additional shower activity will shift east across our area from late morning into early/mid afternoon. Precipitation will taper off and high pressure will work into the region.
426 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Low pressure will track east through northern Indiana and northern Ohio today. A cold front will accompany the passage of this low later today, marking the end of rainfall as cooler and drier air gets funnelled into the region.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed through Oklahoma this morning scouring out low-level moisture (temporarily) and bringing somewhat cooler air into the area for today.
331 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Key Message: - Much cooler today, active weather returns midweek. Precipitation has shifted out of the forecast area this morning, leaving behind a large area of stratus underneath the departing upper low. Even with the sun later in the day, high temperatures will be at least 15 degrees cooler, reaching the middle 50s to near 60. The high will slide off to the east overnight, leaving northeast Missouri under the greatest influence. Upper ridging builds into the MO Valley on Tuesday in advance of the next highly-amplified trough. Southerly winds return along with warmer conditions, with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70 over the SW 1/4 of the CWA.
Today: An extremely impressive closed trough is currently evident in this morning's GOES water vapor imagery just off the Pacific Northwestern coast, with low-amplitude ridging centered over the Rocky Mountain Front Range, and troughing centered over the IL/IA/MO border region.
339 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Rain tapers off this evening then another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Report of wind damage with several trees down in the South Haven area around 0515 UTC. Rain should taper off this evening as the low moves east and drying and subsidence on the back side of the low moves in.
(Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures today across the area due to an upper level ridge over the area.
209 AM MDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Deep western CONUS upper trough will begin to cross the Rockies today, shifting the lee side trough east and bringing warm conds to much of the FA. Deep western upper trough will shift east, with the northern edge of this system supporting a good chance for showers Tue into Wed, along with a period of breezy NW winds, as the associated cold front advects into the region Tue morning. Warm thermal profiles will support all rain with this system, except perhaps the highest portions of the Black Hills where some snow may mix in later Tues afternoon and evening. This will support slight cooler but still mild temps Thur along with breezy NW winds.
On Monday morning, VFR conditions gradually return to the region, and isolated showers may develop over the far eastern half of the area as a weak cold front approaches from the north; however model trends have been steering away from this potential. Monday night lows dip down into the low to mid 50s mid inland with upper 50s to low 60s closer to the coast.
Monday night lows dip down into the low to mid 50s mid inland with upper 50s to low 60s closer to the coast.
Upper trough shifting east of the forecast area along with associated precipitation. Moist east/southeast upslope flow increases tonight as pressure falls across the Rockies/high plains in response to significant upper trough moving into the western CONUS. Breezy/windy conditions with tight pressure gradient across the high plains. Upper trough crosses the Rockies and moves through the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night, bringing scattered showers (high POP/low QPF event). Thermal profiles stay warm enough for rain outside of the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Surface cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon/evening.
This will push a cold front into northwest GA by early afternoon. A drier and cooler air mass will spread over the forecast area tonight into Tuesday.
The low pressure system will continue to move east through the morning. Sunny skies and seasonable temperatures are also in store with highs in the low to mid 50s. A high pressure system will set up to the southwest in Iowa making for a period of dry weather. Lows should be in the low to mid 30s. An amplifying upper ridge will drift over the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. It'll also turn a bit breezy as strong low pressure crosses the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient upstream.
1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 (This evening through Monday) Weak upper-level ridging persists over the area, keeping warmer and drier conditions over the area, and reducing chances of precipitation over the area through Monday.
410 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A backdoor cold front moving through wrn Nebraska this morning is slowing up. The models are in excellent agreement bringing a strong Pacific cold front into wrn Nebraska around 21z Tuesday afternoon. The Pacific cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Tuesday evening.
420 AM MDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Periods of rain and high-elevation snow will stream across the Northern Rockies today, as a deep low pressure circulation continues to churn off the Pacific Northwest coast.
538 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms move back in this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. Shower chances will ramp up again this afternoon as an upper trough, and its associated sfc cold front, approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue tonight and Tuesday as the main upper low crosses the region.
Temperatures today should be in the 80s, unfortunately, they will feel like in the low 90s given all of the moisture that is in place.
At the same time, an upper trough will swing through the area later today. Ahead of the upper trough will be a series of disturbances that will bring isolated to scattered showers for most locations today, although the coast, coastal mountains, Cascades, north of the Umpqua Divide and western Siskiyou county have the best chance for showers. The upper trough will move east with a relative break in the action this evening. However any break will be brief with a warm front approaching later tonight into Tuesday. This warm front is not expected to be a big precip producer and snow levels will be rising late Monday through Tuesday, therefore snow and flooding concerns are expected to be low.
622 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A cold front is now located over the SE corner of the state and will continue to push off to the east. High pressure will build in the wake of the front although some low clouds will brush the north as the parent low pulls out. Expecting this line of convection to exit the state right around daybreak as a well defined upper trough moves into the Tennessee Valley. As the upper system pulls away, weak ridging will begin to build over the area this afternoon and tonight, cresting over the state late Tuesday morning before being shunted off to the east by a strong upper trough approaching from the west.
646 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms move back in this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. Shower chances will ramp up again this afternoon as an upper trough, and its associated sfc cold front, approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue tonight and Tuesday as the main upper low crosses the region.
741 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Aviation - Rain tapers off this evening then another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Report of wind damage with several trees down in the South Haven area around 0515 UTC. Rain should taper off this evening as the low moves east and drying and subsidence on the back side of the low moves in.
1042 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Cold front is currently situated across central Mississippi. A pre-frontal trough, accompanied by a line of showers, continues to move east across central AL. This will push a cold front into northwest GA by early afternoon. A drier and cooler air mass will spread over the forecast area tonight into Tuesday.
This may transition to more isolated activity this afternoon as the upper trough moves overhead, and may pose more of a threat for small hail and perhaps a funnel cloud (low-level shear is quite impressive, but instability forecast to be pretty shallow).
Areas of low level wind shear will likely develop during the last 3hrs of the TAF period as strong winds associated with a potent upper level trough pivot over the area. Warm and breezy weather today will give way to windy and cooler weather Tuesday. A potent cold front will also bring shower and mountain snow showers to the northwest third or so of the state Tuesday morning.
511 AM MDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Deep western CONUS upper trough will begin to cross the Rockies today, shifting the lee side trough east and bringing warm conds to much of the FA. Deep western upper trough will shift east, with the northern edge of this system supporting a good chance for showers Tue into Wed, along with a period of breezy NW winds, as the associated cold front advects into the region Tue morning. Warm thermal profiles will support all rain with this system, except perhaps the highest portions of the Black Hills where some snow may mix in later Tues afternoon and evening. This will support slight cooler but still mild temps Thur along with breezy NW winds.
628 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A backdoor cold front moving through wrn Nebraska this morning is slowing up. The models are in excellent agreement bringing a strong Pacific cold front into wrn Nebraska around 21z Tuesday afternoon. The Pacific cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Tuesday evening.
SCT SHRA/TSRA will move east from the Gulf coast thru the aftn as a short wave trough axis crosses the area. Low pressure developing just off the SC coast will scoot NE today.
Cold front is currently to our northwest and barreling down towards our area. The actual cold front will not push through until this afternoon, so expect for a brief warmup this morning until around lunchtime followed by a noticeable cool down into the afternoon. Expect for cloud coverage to slowly move out overnight and through the first half of the day tomorrow as an upper-level ridge moves into the area. Tomorrow will be on the cooler side of things once again with temps spanning the 50s to mid 60s.
This north-south oriented high pressure, underneath a sharp ridge axis also over the central CONUS, will slide east over the Mississippi River Valley today through Tuesday. While this setup will maintain dry weather conditions across the region, cloud cover will be difficult to eradicate due to a swath of low-to-mid level moisture ahead of the incoming ridge remains over the Dakotas into Minnesota.
659 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Low pressure will track east through northern Indiana and northern Ohio today. A cold front will accompany the passage of this low later today, marking the end of rainfall as cooler and drier air gets funnelled into the region.
824 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms move back in this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. Shower chances will ramp up again this afternoon as an upper trough, and its associated sfc cold front, approaches from the west. Scattered showers will continue tonight and Tuesday as the main upper low crosses the region.
Breezy and cooler weather on Tuesday, with showers ending over eastern Arizona. A powerful trough affecting much of the west coast tonight will split as it moves inland throughout the day today. The southern portion of this trough will move through the Great Basin today and tonight and then into Colorado by Tuesday. Arizona will be mainly impacted by winds ahead of the trough axis today, with rain and high elevation snow showers spreading west to east tonight and Tuesday. Hght falls are not overly impressive and the amplitude of the trough has decreased from earlier forecasts. Expect strong and gusty southwest winds today and tonight, becoming west to northwest on Tuesday, with the highest winds shifting to eastern Arizona.