Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Re-issued the High Wind Warning for the Bordeaux area for the same time period with all guidance showing a high probability of 60-65 MPH gusts by late this evening. Models have backed off a bit with peak 700mb flow and 700-500mb subsidence earlier in the afternoon before the low level pressure gradient increases this evening. Therefore, kept the High Wind Watch going for now and will let the next shift take another look and monitor wind observations through the afternoon.
A Freeze Warning remains in place for areas from near Tilden and Cross east toward areas near Victoria through 8 am where good radiational cooling should allow temperatures to reach freezing. Elsewhere, a special weather statement is in place as temperatures may briefly reach freezing, but not for more than 2 hours. Otherwise, cool and pleasant days are in store for South Texas today and Tuesday as a mid-level ridge builds into the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 60s across the Coastal Plains under mostly sunny skies, with highs in the lower 70s across the Brush Country today. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday.
Based on the latest trends, what models suggest, and how conditions look behind the cold front, the expectation is for a lot of low clouds to work into the area through the day, with the Nature Coast already seeing more of the clouds now. /issued 326 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022/ Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a slightly drier airmass pushing southeast into the Florida Peninsula associated with a slow moving cold front. Ridging aloft will also build into the Florida Peninsula by the weekend, with temperatures climbing back up to near record levels.
Otherwise, with H500 ridging across the western CONUS and sfc ridging in the vicinity, temperatures will continue to warm and abundant sunshine will be in place.
Mid-level moisture shallows out by afternoon, leading to the potential for patchy freezing drizzle as the snow tapers off.
Patchy freezing fog has developed across parts of the Bootheel and NW TN this morning. Given the isolated nature of the freezing fog so far have opted to continue to highlight the threat in a SPS. Upper ridging will build over the region during the end of the week as a large upper trough develops over the western US.
Temperatures will remain seasonably cool to a bit below average as polar high pressure passes over/northeast of the area.
Temperatures as of 3 AM ranged from the low 20s to mid 30s.
353 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. As temperatures bottom out around freezing, there will be the potential for a brief period of light freezing fog. This high will shift slightly east through tonight and maintain a north wind across our CWA. This will also help keep our afternoon highs cooler than normal as temperatures top out from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Our normal highs run from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s southeast. The southern branch of the jet stream may bring some high clouds tonight but they are expected to have little affect on morning lows that will be cooler than normal again with most sites bottoming out in the low to mid 30s. Our normal lows run in the lower 40s.
534 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region today.
A fast moving mid/upper trough noted on latest satellite imagery will push across the region today. This trough will weaken as it drops south, with dry weather still anticipated to persist this period. This trough, along with an upper jet to the south, will assist with increasing high cloud cover early this morning.
903 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Dry weather, mainly with high pressure, is expected today through Tuesday.
635 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Dry weather, mainly with high pressure, is expected today through Tuesday.
301 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will slowly move southeast across the region and weaken, with a surface boundary approaching the area Tuesday night before it washes out.
Model guidance is in excellent agreement that this wave and its attendant surface cold front will push through the Great Lakes region later tonight. Temperatures will surge into the 50s this afternoon as the effects of compressional warming advect across the High Plains and into the Mississippi Valley ahead of the frontal system. Overnight lows will remain seasonably mild as scattered high clouds lurk in the vicinity of the cold front, which will remain to the north.
749 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain and snow chances return with a mid week front. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected today as high pressure crosses north of the region.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. As temperatures bottom out around freezing, there will be the potential for a brief period of light freezing fog. This high will shift slightly east through tonight and maintain a north wind across our CWA. This will also help keep our afternoon highs cooler than normal as temperatures top out from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Our normal highs run from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s southeast. The southern branch of the jet stream may bring some high clouds tonight but they are expected to have little affect on morning lows that will be cooler than normal again with most sites bottoming out in the low to mid 30s. Our normal lows run in the lower 40s.
910 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Warmer air mass settles in to start the work week with high pressure keeping conditions dry.
The modifying low-level airmass and increased cloud cover will keep tonight's lows several degrees warmer with most locations remaining above freezing.
/issued 224 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022/ Upper level ridging will continue to move inland today over the western CONUS leading to an increase in thickness values overhead. A weak short wave underneath the ridge will bring stronger winds aloft as well as a fetch of upper level Pacific moisture but is not expected to dampen temperatures much. This short wave will lead to weak surface lee troughing/cyclogenesis this afternoon in New Mexico bringing downsloping west to southwest winds. Broad upper level ridging over the southwestern CONUS will gradually expand eastward beginning on Tuesday.
After the cold start this morning, we'll likely see highs in the lower/mid 60s over much of the CWA this afternoon.
This morning, a closed low pressure system over the northeast Pacific Ocean is pushing a deep plume of moisture into the Pacific Northwest. The southwesterly orientation of the moisture fetch will usher in warmer temperatures today, so valley locations will transition to rain this morning. Some lower elevations will see only rain while the higher terrain may see only snow. Clearwater County and the Bitterroot Range in Idaho, including the Highway 12 corridor from Lowell to Lolo Pass, will also have a high probability of an inch of liquid.
There is a band of middle and high level moisture over the state with the trof, but moisture will be decreasing from north to south during the morning hours.
650 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Aviation - Only light snow chances this week with fast moving clippers The large scale pattern the next few days features fast northwest flow between western ridging and an upper low over eastern Canada.
(Tomorrow through Monday) Southerly winds and a continued warming trend are expected to continue across the region through mid week as a ridge of high pressure holds over the Western CONUS.
1018 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region today. Upper trough to the west will sag south and drag the boundary across our area through midday. High pressure builds from the west with skies becoming clear to mostly clear and allowing for plenty of sunshine.
The longwave pattern for most of the work week features an upper level ridge over western North America with a trough along the East Coast. The low levels will be stubbornly dry, with main forcing at the 700 MB level mainly over/just north of Saginaw Bay. If any precip is able to fall, expect it to be in the form of light snow as current temps hover around freezing.
159 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Mostly dry and increasingly warmer weather will be in store through mid week with highs in mid 40s to lower 50s.
This should result in lower RH values in the lower to mid 20 percent range across locations especially along and northwest of the I-65 corridor this afternoon.
1228 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Aviation - Only light snow chances this week with fast moving clippers The large scale pattern the next few days features fast northwest flow between western ridging and an upper low over eastern Canada.
236 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region this afternoon through mid-week.
223 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Upper level ridging will continue to put our region in an area of northwest to west-northwest flow aloft will allow for well above average temperatures to continue through the short term period.
400 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure now covering Kentucky providing sunny skies for the JKL CWA along with light winds and falling humidity values. Thanks to the sunshine and dry air mass temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 50s while dewpoints are down in the upper teens and low 20s most places resulting in RH values between 20 to 25 percent for much of the area. They all depict sustained northwest mid level flow of moderate speed crossing Kentucky south of a large trough rotating through eastern Canada.
We'll be able to warm nicely into the low and mid 60s in many locations this afternoon. 56/GDG /Updated at 0245 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022/ The majority of the extended looks dry with increasing temperatures thanks to ridging over the region.
258 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A weak cold front will slowly transverse southern Florida today and pass through the island chain late this evening and overnight. Behind the front is a broad high pressure that will slide over the southeast U.
1009 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A cold front will drop south of the region early today, resulting in a chilly start for the work week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): An H5 ridge expanding across Mexico will bring a west to northwest mid-level flow over Deep South Texas. At the surface, high pressure trudges east and will cause winds to become more easterly during the day Tuesday. Tuesday will feature a good amount of sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, which is just below normal for the first day of March.
Lows overnight will continue to increase as warmer air encompasses the region. Persistent high pressure over the Gulf region will limit moisture return to the area. Breezy winds, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, will be possible again tomorrow as the low to the north and high to the south will tighten up pressure gradients over the area. guidance has been running cooler with this setup so again bumped up the max high but wouldn't be surprised if additional increases will again be needed as we get closer.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1245 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Warmer air mass settles in to start the work week with high pressure keeping conditions dry.
158 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Sunny and warmer today -- and we're just getting started! Dry conditions are going to be the rule this week as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures will respond to this high pressure and allow us to see very spring-like readings for the next several days.
High pressure will slowly move southeast across the region and weaken, with a surface boundary approaching the area Tuesday night before it washes out.
Our region will remain on the southern fridge of the deeper moisture and stronger flow aloft. The region will remain under a weak upper level ridge in the short term with deep moisture plume remaining to the north. Showers will continue into Tuesday across much of the higher terrain. Southeasterly winds increase with a low pressure system developing of the Pacific Northwest Coast. This will aid in temperatures reaching the upper 50s to low 60s today and Tuesday in the lower valleys.
1134 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Rockies. At the surface, a trough/wind shift extends from Southeast Nebraska into the TX Panhandle. Upper trough will swing through dry today as moisture remains very limited. By Thu morning a sharp upper trough will be approaching the West Coast with upper ridging moving into the Plains. This will allow very warm temps to continue for Thu, although southerly winds will be on the increase as Lee troughing starts to strengthen. Seems we are in a pattern where a weak surface trof will venture into the area and weaken as it does so. One such trof was moving across the area at midday and another one looks to on Tuesday.
Breezes will increase to 10 to 15 knots this evening as a cold front moves into the local waters. Behind the front is a broad high pressure that will slide over the southeast U.
We'll be able to warm nicely into the low and mid 60s in many locations this afternoon.
105 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region today. Upper trough axis has moved into the southeastern US with NW flow developing aloft leading to much drier air funneling into the forecast area with PWATs plummeting to below a half inch. Temperatures climb to close to seasonal average today in the low to mid 60s.
300 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A warmer south to southwest flow can be expected across the region tonight into Tuesday.
220 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure continues to promote clear and dry conditions across the Tennessee Valley. Still, it should be a few degrees warmer than last night and they will eventually bottom out in the low to mid 30s.
Dry weather continues with high pressure in control. Slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Discussion: Quiet short term period as high pressure at the surface brings dry weather and moderating temperatures. For tonight, high pressure will remain in control bringing another night of mostly clear skies and cold temperatures.
1053 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Cold front is shifting south of the area this morning, with northerly winds behind this boundary. Cloud cover already near to north of Orlando will limit daytime heating, with highs in the 70s expected, while farther locations farther south that see more sunshine will reach the low 80s.
High pressure is prevailing across the Deep South today, providing us with some welcome sunshine and dry weather across our area.
246 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS and slowly migrate towards the forecast area tomorrow. With the warmer afternoon high temperatures today and the continued blanket of cloud cover, overnight temperatures will be a bit warmer than last night with values ending up right around average for this time of year. With light southwesterly winds continuing tomorrow and increasing thicknesses, temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than this afternoon with all locations peaking in the 70s.
102 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain and snow chances return with a mid week front. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected today as high pressure crosses north of the region. As well, assisted lift along the colder ridgetops in the southeast could also stand to see a few snow showers.
250 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Overnight lows will remain cooler than seasonal normals, but a few degrees warmer than this morning, particularly in the Delta and northwest. The ridge axis in place over the region is keeping the weather quiet and the skies mostly clear. However, that ridge and the associated light winds allow those temps to drop into the upper 30s after 06Z.
Some areas across the north could briefly approach freezing but this should be handled well with an SPS. Tuesday will be a repeat of today, but with temperatures running roughly 5 degrees warmer than today.
19Z surface observations indicate that a diffuse, but progressive surface pressure ridge continues to march across the area. Snaking northeast to southwest along a line running from approximately La Grange - Shiner - Pleasanton, the ridge axis should be out of the area by early this evening as its parent upper level ridge shifts into the lower Mississippi Valley. Expect chilly overnight lows once more tonight, though the light southerly flow behind the vacating high pressure should keep most locations slightly milder than last night. Most noticeable across the north, this should keep Hill Country and Edwards Plateau communities a touch cooler tomorrow afternoon.
The pressure gradient across Illinois is tightening a bit in response to the Low pressure system progressing from the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes today. A pre-frontal trough approaching from eastern Iowa will bring some thickening high clouds, along with a slight veering of the surface winds toward W-NW. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that this wave and its attendant surface cold front will push through the Great Lakes region later tonight. Temperatures will surge into the 50s this afternoon as the effects of compressional warming advect across the High Plains and into the Mississippi Valley ahead of the frontal system. Overnight lows will remain seasonably mild as scattered high clouds lurk in the vicinity of the cold front, which will remain to the north.
The southern edge of the QPF shield could be subject to temperatures aloft above freezing, a loss of ice production aloft, or a combination of both, resulting in a mix of rain, sleet, or freezing rain, highly dependent on air or ground temperatures. With still some degree of uncertainty, will not issue any headlines, and will continue to mention the freezing rain threat in the HWO and other products. If needed, elevated wording can be used this evening once we see what areas may see the higher impacts. Lingering stratus coupled with the upper jet aloft and quasi-stationary boundary layer all led me to maintain a mention of drizzle or freezing drizzle through the day Tuesday.
Despite being slightly cooler, temperatures are still expected to remain above normal. By tomorrow, high pressure regaining control should quickly alleviate any CIG reductions, with VFR prevailing.
Overnight lows will reach the low to middle 30s. Slightly deeper boundary layer mixing between 825-800 mb should yield even warmer temperatures in the low to middle 70s.
The high clouds will be with us through the night which will hold temps above freezing (mainly mid 30s), even though it will be dry and relatively calm. The warming trend will continue Tuesday with ridging aloft and increasing low level warm air advection. However, high clouds associated with an upper low across the Desert Southwest will remain over the region, keeping the sun's full warming potential in check. Even though it will not be completely sunny Tuesday it should still be a very nice day with highs from the mid 60s to the lower 70s and a southerly wind between 5 and 10 mph.
251 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Quiet afternoon across the region with sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Under continued WAA, high temperatures for Tuesday will be even warmer than today, topping out in the lower to mid 60s.
932 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure is prevailing across the Deep South today, providing us with some welcome sunshine and dry weather across our area.
542 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Upper level ridging will continue to put our region in an area of northwest to west-northwest flow aloft will allow for well above average temperatures to continue through the short term period.
642 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Thicker canopy of mid level cloud evident late this evening marking the passage of a warm front will steadily vacate the region early tonight. A cold front will sag southward across the region Tuesday afternoon. The longwave pattern for most of the work week features an upper level ridge over western North America with a trough along the East Coast. The low levels will be stubbornly dry, with main forcing at the 700 MB level mainly over/just north of Saginaw Bay. If any precip is able to fall, expect it to be in the form of light snow as current temps hover around freezing.
536 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Mostly dry and increasingly warmer weather will be in store through mid week with highs in mid 40s to lower 50s.
That said, ground temperatures are still below freezing in northwest Montana except in the Flathead and Mission Valleys.
654 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will build in from the northwest into tonight, slides offshore Tuesday, then remains centered off the coast through midweek.
High pressure aloft and at the surface to provide VFR and light winds for all three air terminals for the next 24 hours. /issued 219 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): An H5 ridge expanding across Mexico will bring a west to northwest mid-level flow over Deep South Texas. At the surface, high pressure trudges east and will cause winds to become more easterly during the day Tuesday. Tuesday will feature a good amount of sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, which is just below normal for the first day of March.
929 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will slide farther offshore Tuesday, then remains centered off the coast through midweek.
(This evening through Tuesday) Cirrus ahead of weak, southern stream trough, will continue to be seen over the region through tomorrow morning. Close to average for the end of February with several locations at or just above freezing.
735 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure remains over the region this evening with plenty of dry air and light winds. Maintained low temperatures in the mid 30s across the ridges. 20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure now covering Kentucky providing sunny skies for the JKL CWA along with light winds and falling humidity values. Thanks to the sunshine and dry air mass temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 50s while dewpoints are down in the upper teens and low 20s most places resulting in RH values between 20 to 25 percent for much of the area. They all depict sustained northwest mid level flow of moderate speed crossing Kentucky south of a large trough rotating through eastern Canada.
327 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS and slowly migrate towards the forecast area tomorrow. With the warmer afternoon high temperatures today and the continued blanket of cloud cover, overnight temperatures will be a bit warmer than last night with values ending up right around average for this time of year. With light southwesterly winds continuing tomorrow and increasing thicknesses, temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than this afternoon with all locations peaking in the 70s.
716 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will build in from the northwest into tonight, slides offshore Tuesday, then remains centered off the coast through midweek.
As I write, the precip sensor at the Plentywood airport is showing unknown precip, which usually indicates freezing rain. Expecting an initial push of freezing rain for Sheridan county this evening, then a bit more widespread Tuesday morning. There continues to be a small chance of freezing rain late tonight into Tuesday for mainly Sheridan County.
750 PM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region this afternoon through mid-week.
351 PM MST Mon Feb 28 2022 An upper-level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the region over the next 36 hours.
Sunny and warmer today -- and we're just getting started! Dry conditions are going to be the rule this week as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures will respond to this high pressure and allow us to see very spring-like readings for the next several days.
Despite being slightly cooler, temperatures are still expected to remain above normal.