Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front has moved through middle TN and the upper level low will drag behind and move across the Ohio Valley today. Went on the low end of guidance.
Slightly warmer conditions can be expected today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, with an upper trough moving over western ND, it looks like there will be enough instability and mid level moisture for isolated to scattered post frontal showers to develop. The aforementioned upper trough lingers over eastern ND on Sunday providing a chance of showers and isolate thunderstorms. The remainder of the forecast period will bring upper level ridging over the area, with a few impulses tracking across the forecast area within a general northwest upper flow.
638 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021 A cold front will move through the region today. After one more hot day today, the cold front will usher in a refreshing reprieve from the heat by Sunday. Weak scattered showers are moving across the CSRA and central Midlands due to a pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwest winds will continue until the cold front itself moves across the area later today.
An elongated low is slowly moving off to the east and an amplified upper ridge will be settling over the area behind it. Clouds and light rain will continue early this morning on the backside of the low. The distance between the trough and ridge axis will create tighter pressure gradients aloft and breezy conditions at the surface. Temperatures through the day will max out in the 60s and clear skies tonight will allow low to again drop to the low 40s. Under the influence of ridging and high pressure, pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday, although starting out pretty chilly.
/Issued 458 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021/ Surface cold front across northwest Georgia will continue to push southeastward across the area today. Lingering light rain showers are currently limited to parts of middle Georgia ahead of prefrontal trough and will continue to drift eastward through the remainder of the morning. Drier and cooler conditions will build initially into north Georgia today behind the front with breezy northwest winds and gradually clearing skies. High temperatures will run well below normal in north Georgia while Middle Georgia will still warm into the 80s ahead of the full impact of the cooler and drier airmass this afternoon.
Upper trough is moving east over Saskatchewan towards Manitoba and the leading southern axis is over the western Dakotas. Regarding temperatures: Today they will tend to vary due to shower activity, with cooler afternoon highs in the mid 50s where better shower coverage occurs/persists. There should be more breaks in clouds cover Sunday and warmer air mass/moderation should support highs in the 70s for most.
414 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Today through Tonight: We're beginning to see a greater surge of drier and cooler air push southward through lower MS Valley region, and this trend will continue through the near term. Cirrus associated with a remnant MCS will be streaming across the forecast area today and this may help to filter the sunlight and keep temperatures a little cooler than would have been expected.
720 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 As an upper level Low pressure system pulls out of the Ohio Valley, this will bring about clearing skies throughout the day from northwest to southeast. High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region, holding northeasterly surface winds in place this weekend.
646 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Summary: Freezing temperatures across the CWA this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises. Near- and sub-freezing temperatures persisting this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises. Southerly flow behind the ridge will bring warm, moist air into the Northland, increasing instability in the area. Chances for precipitation increase today as a trough moves east through Canada.
350 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the Midwest, as a cold frontal boundary begins to stall out across the Rockie Mountains. Current radar imagery indicates that most of the precipitation over the Nebraska Panhandle has finally started pushing off towards the east as the upper level ridge centers over the Midwest.
We're well on our way to another hot day with 10 AM temperatures already in the low 80s for most, putting highs near 90 at the coast and low 90s inland. A cold front sliding southward into north Florida tonight may bring some potential for low stratus at LEE-DAB, but confidence is low at this time. The Atlc ridge axis has slipped south of the waters and will result in a west to southwest flow 10-15 knots.
403 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Summary: Freezing temperatures across the CWA this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises. Near- and sub-freezing temperatures persisting this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises. Southerly flow behind the ridge will bring warm, moist air into the Northland, increasing instability in the area. Chances for precipitation increase today as a trough moves east through Canada.
558 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Impactful weather: Frost/freezing conditions this morning and again tonight. High temperatures today will largely be in the low to mid 60s, falling to lows tonight in the range through the 50s with the coolest readings across NE lower. High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Elongated upper-level ridging will continue to move across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada while troughing advances across south- central Canada on Sunday.
602 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 As an upper level Low pressure system pulls out of the Ohio Valley, this will bring about clearing skies throughout the day from northwest to southeast. High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region, holding northeasterly surface winds in place this weekend.
A robust warming trend is then forecast to begin across the interior Sunday before peaking on Memorial Day as high pressure strengthens across the region.
*Record low maximum temperatures possible this weekend (Sat- Sun) Dual 850 mb low centers lie across central PA this morning, forcing a large area of showers extending from the Lower Susq River Valley northward to the Endless Mountain region. However, any diurnal heating, combined with passage of upper trough axis, is likely to result in scattered PM showers. The operational EC lags the CMC and NAM/GFS is lifting the upper/closed low out of the Mid Atlantic region heading into Memorial Day.
538 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the Midwest, as a cold frontal boundary begins to stall out across the Rockie Mountains. Current radar imagery indicates that most of the precipitation over the Nebraska Panhandle has finally started pushing off towards the east as the upper level ridge centers over the Midwest.
755 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Low pressure will continue to track away from the Great Lakes towards the Carolina coast. Upper low lingers over the area until Sunday.
553 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 Issued at MDT Sat May 29 2021 The trough continues to trek eastward across Montana this morning. The associated cold front got a nice push southward last evening by convection in Montana, and is currently stretching from between LND and RIW east toward CPR. The front will slow down its southward progress today as it crosses the Divide, with cooler temperatures across the state during the afternoon. As the front continues southward on Sunday, the cooler and slightly more moist air finishes entering the state. Better midlevel support remains farther to the south and east, so shower activity will be limited on Sunday to the higher elevations of the Winds and Big Horns, along with Natrona County.
We do have some surface support with the low over southwestern corner of SD with a trough extending north and south, and a stronger 998mb low over Saskatchewan. The main trough will cross tonight, with the surface boundary shifting mostly out of our area as well. This will be as temperatures jump back into the low to mid 70s and dew points linger in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Though the pressure trough and associated wind shift have already made it across the forecast area, the baroclinic zone from our passing cold front is still making its way southward through the area this morning, now approaching the Highway 84 corridor. /DL/ Prior discussion below: Today through Tonight: We're beginning to see a greater surge of drier and cooler air push southward through lower MS Valley region, and this trend will continue through the near term. Cirrus associated with a remnant MCS will be streaming across the forecast area today and this may help to filter the sunlight and keep temperatures a little cooler than would have been expected.
Generally zonal flow aloft over our region transitions to northwesterly as this trough continues east and weak ridging follows in behind through the rest of the period. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south- southeast over the region. North-northwest surface flow follows in its wake ushering in drier air and cooler temps through the rest of the period. Highs on Sunday will be a just tad cooler with the entire region in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows tonight into Sunday morning are expected to drop into the low to upper 50s for area north of I-10, with upper 50s to low 60s south.
Surface and upper ridge to become better established tonight allowing for mostly clear skies and light east to northeast winds. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 50s across south-central Arkansas to the lower 60s elsewhere.
A cold front will continue to push south through the entire forecast area bringing drier air and gusty northerly surface winds, especially during the late morning/afternoon. /EC/ Today through Tonight: We're beginning to see a greater surge of drier and cooler air push southward through lower MS Valley region, and this trend will continue through the near term. Cirrus associated with a remnant MCS will be streaming across the forecast area today and this may help to filter the sunlight and keep temperatures a little cooler than would have been expected.
Another round of convection is forecast late afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of Mexico and Big Bend.
Winds will shift southwesterly for most zones as an area of low pressure pushes eastward into central California this morning. The low over California today is progged to reach northwest Mexico and southern Arizona by Sunday evening.
532 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 The mid-level trough moving through the northern Rockies early this morning drove a cold front across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah. Mid-level flow begins to split in the West as the northern Rockies trough continues eastward over the northern High Plains while a shallow trough moving inland deepens over central California this afternoon. Divergence aloft increases as the pattern evolves with the forecast area falling under the right entrance region of the jet moving through the departing system to the north, and the left exit region of the jet associated with the low forming to the west.
The cold front is pushing through the area this morning and will clear most of the region by sunrise or just after. Look for cloudy skies through the day across the north as the upper level system works through on the base of the trough.
319 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 Issued at MDT Sat May 29 2021 The trough continues to trek eastward across Montana this morning. The associated cold front got a nice push southward last evening by convection in Montana, and is currently stretching from between LND and RIW east toward CPR. The front will slow down its southward progress today as it crosses the Divide, with cooler temperatures across the state during the afternoon. As the front continues southward on Sunday, the cooler and slightly more moist air finishes entering the state. Better midlevel support remains farther to the south and east, so shower activity will be limited on Sunday to the higher elevations of the Winds and Big Horns, along with Natrona County.
Still expecting morning and midday light showers ahead of a cold front. Will be looking into the conditional chance for isolated thunderstorms along the cold front in eastern ND around 00 UTC, possibly bringing a chance for small hail. Upper trough is moving east over Saskatchewan towards Manitoba and the leading southern axis is over the western Dakotas. Regarding temperatures: Today they will tend to vary due to shower activity, with cooler afternoon highs in the mid 50s where better shower coverage occurs/persists. There should be more breaks in clouds cover Sunday and warmer air mass/moderation should support highs in the 70s for most.
Mainly NW winds will prevail thanks to passage of a late-season cold front. A cold front will make its way through, following the rain, shifting our winds to the northwest with speeds around 10 kts with gusts around 15kts, mainly north of I-10, calming down after sunset. Temperatures for Saturday will approach 90 degrees this afternoon but will cool way down to the upper 50s for our SE AL and SW GA counties and the low 60s for the FL Panhandle.
527 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 Current surface map places weak cold front slipping into the western Dakotas as upper trof moves through the Northern Plains. Cold front slowly slides east today. Upper level ridge builds across the western CONUS this week, with dry northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
Generally zonal flow aloft over our region transitions to northwesterly as this trough continues east and weak ridging follows in behind through the rest of the period. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south-southeast over the region. North-northwest surface flow follows in its wake ushering in drier air and cooler temps through the rest of the period. Highs on Sunday will be a just tad cooler with the entire region in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows tonight into Sunday morning are expected to drop into the low to upper 50s for area north of I-10, with upper 50s to low 60s south.
Dry and storm-free across the region the remainder of this holiday weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.
745 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021 A cold front will settle south across central NC during the afternoon and early evening. A strong upper level trough will then pivot across the region Sunday.
446 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 The mid-level trough moving through the northern Rockies early this morning drove a cold front across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah. Mid-level flow begins to split in the West as the northern Rockies trough continues eastward over the northern High Plains while a shallow trough moving inland deepens over central California this afternoon. Divergence aloft increases as the pattern evolves with the forecast area falling under the right entrance region of the jet moving through the departing system to the north, and the left exit region of the jet associated with the low forming to the west.
Southeast MO and southern IL will see some of the coolest temps due to later clearing with highs just touching 60 in places, while the remainder of the area should see highs in the low-mid 60s. High pressure will continue to settle southward through the mid MS Valley tonight and this should lead to good radiational cooling in the absence of clouds. The large surface anticyclone will begin retreating on Sunday yet still exert a good influence. Glass The overall trends in the deterministic models and ensembles continue to favor the evolution of a mean positively tilted upper trof from the Great Lakes into central Rockies early in the week with a series of weaker disturbances tracking across the region ahead of it.
Weak upper level ridging will help keep much of West Texas dry this afternoon, but instability out west stretching from SE New Mexico down to the Davis mountains and higher shear values will likely cause a few strong to severe storms to develop later this afternoon. A closed low off Baja CA will be moving over AZ on Sunday, sending disturbances through our area as moisture deepens over West Texas and SE New Mexico.
A surface trof/warm front is analyzed from just west of KBIS down to just west of KMBG down to just west of Murdo and on down into Nebraska. Out ahead of the boundary, in the cooler airmass under mostly cloudy conditions, temperatures are warming through the 50s, and in a few locations into the 60s. Off to the north and west, behind the boundary, in the warmer/more sunny conditions, temperatures are warming through the 60s this afternoon. Model guidance has this warm front pushing through the CWA over the next 12 to 18 hours and clearing the southeasternmost counties early Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight will likely be running near to slightly below normal, while low level thermal progs for Sunday afternoon are warmer, allowing for readings closer to normal for the end of May.
250 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 A weak trough will sweep across the area during the short term forecast period, and bring showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight and Sunday. The activity will spread eastward overnight and Sunday, likely becoming more organized as the arrival of a mid-level trough supplies better forcing/moisture. The showers look to wane by mid-day Sunday, but there will be the potential for afternoon redevelopment from central into southwest MN on Sunday afternoon as the weak warm front bisects the area. Cloud cover and southerly flow will yield much warmer minimum temps overnight as compared to last night. Anticipate readings to range from the low/mid 70s in west central MN to low and mid 60s elsewhere.
Given at least some sunshine, afternoon highs will reach into the low 70s for most areas, with the far western zones seeing mid to upper 70s possible. IR/visible satellite are already showing agitated cumulus building over the southern Rockies in CO, and this is an early sign that thunderstorms will initiate over the higher terrain in the next few hours. Given the overcast skies and lack of any appreciable warm advection, afternoon highs on Sunday will only reach into the low to mid 60s.
233 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 230 PM CDT High pressure dominates the weather pattern, with surface and upper air ridging just to our northwest, providing mostly clear skies with northeasterly winds. The gradient between the low to our east and high pressure is creating some gusty winds up to 30 mph, but will slowly weaken the rest of this afternoon into the evening as high pressure continues to builds in. With strong ridging throughout the atmosphere, we should see another mostly clear day on Sunday.
1245 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Summary: Freezing temperatures across the CWA this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises. Near- and sub-freezing temperatures persisting this morning will quickly warm as the sun rises. Southerly flow behind the ridge will bring warm, moist air into the Northland, increasing instability in the area. Chances for precipitation increase today as a trough moves east through Canada.
This region of subsidence is located between an elongated mid level anticyclone extending from the Upper MS Valley into nrn Ontario and the mid level low over the central Appalachians/Mid Atlantic region. Full sun has supported ample mixing today, leading to temps into the low 60s away from Lake Huron. Dry boundary layer conditions, represented by sfc dewpoints from the mid 20s to low 30s and clear skies will offer decent radiational cooling, allowing min temps to drop into the low 40s metro Detroit and 30s elsewhere. With low to mid level ridging becoming centered over Lower Mi on Sunday and given the extremely dry airmass overhead, ample sunshine can be expected again. A low amplitude mid level trough is forecast to move across Lower Mi Mon night.
A drier airmass is also filtering in at the lower levels with breezy northerly flow persisting this afternoon. Isolated convection that tracked from our central LA parishes into the Natchez area this morning has since diminished as the baroclinic zone along a cold front continues to clear the southern portion of the forecast area. These dry and somewhat cooler conditions will persist over the next 24 hours as surface ridging builds in from the north and mid/upper ridging build in from the west.
A small cluster of showers remains well offshore Islamorada as a weak 850 mb trough lifts northward. Significant changes are in store after entering the Memorial Day weekend with light northwest flow aloft and surface ridging across the northern Bahamas. trough will sharpen as its axis moves into central Florida by Sunday night. What is most interesting is that mid-level temperatures fall as the trough approaches, steepening lapse rates.
1104 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the Midwest, as a cold frontal boundary begins to stall out across the Rockie Mountains. Current radar imagery indicates that most of the precipitation over the Nebraska Panhandle has finally started pushing off towards the east as the upper level ridge centers over the Midwest.
1123 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 Current surface map places weak cold front slipping into the western Dakotas as upper trof moves through the Northern Plains. Cold front slowly slides east today. Upper level ridge builds across the western CONUS this week, with dry northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow as heights will build a little more across the area.
Upper level ridging and northeasterly surface winds earlier today has started off the holiday weekend with clearing skies and cooler than normals highs in the mid 60s.
309 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 A cold front that extended from southeast Virginia to western North Carolina will move southeast tonight and will lead in below normal temperatures and showers for tonight and Sunday. High pressure and dry weather build in for Memorial Day.
1218 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 A cold front will move through the region today producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. After one more warm day today, the cold front will usher in a refreshing reprieve from the heat by Sunday. A cold front will move through the forecast area today promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. In the late afternoon or evening, a section of the cold front will surge into the forecast area from the north as the cool airmass pushes into the Mid Atlantic States.
A weak marine push from an oncoming ridge will continue to inject some light high clouds over the CWA, otherwise today is expected to be very quiet. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the valleys approaching 80, with low 60s into 70s for our mountain zones.
202 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 The back edge of the low clouds has been making some slow progress across the area, though it has been particularly slow over Illinois and eastern Missouri where enough low level moisture has caused an extensive cumulus field to form. Latest run of the HREF is showing the ridge moving east across the area tonight and early tomorrow. This will allow for strong radiational cooling tonight with lows in the low- mid 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the low lying areas in the Ozarks. Sunday night will not be as cool with increasing clouds and warm air advection in the low levels.
(This evening through Sunday) After several days of being influenced by upper-level disturbances, West Central Texas is enjoying a reprieve from the active weather today, thanks to mid-level ridging. By tomorrow afternoon, an upper-level trough will dig in over Baja California, which will break down the ridge over west Texas.