Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE U. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN.
312 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z. A SHORT WAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MN THIS EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE A SFC TROF BISECTS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BASICALLY NORTH OF U. AN H85 LLJ INTERSECTS THE TROF AS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ARRIVES WITH AN H25 JET MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAREST THIS JUNCTION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING STORMS TO LINGER CLOSER TO I-75 AND PERHAPS EVEN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF. A RATHER COLD POOL OF AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS AND EURO FORECAST A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER KY/TN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A BROAD TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
1253 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015 Widely scattered showers developing over southwest Missouri in association with broad difluent upper flow ahead of main trough entering Central Plains. A large cyclone swirling over the Rockies provided a moisture advection / southwest flow regime over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. As the low level jet kicks in, thunderstorms will once again develop, with the better chances for areas south of Interstate 44.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. MAIN UPPER LOW/JET STREAK TO MOVE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND SHOULD PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
303 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS PROVEN TO LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL TO THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE HIGH.
LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN INLAND GIVEN A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT.
STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL HAVE A CHC TO INITIATE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
RECURRENT TROUGH EJECTIONS FROM NW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SET OFF THE NEXT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
Guidance is at odds the amount of structure and coverage of precipitation that will remain as the MCS moves into central MO, however weak height falls aloft associated with the upper low/trof lifting northeastard through the Plains and a increasing and veering southwesterly LLJ should allow maintenance in at least a decaying state of showers and some embedded thunder.
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WILL REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TOMORROW. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION AND TO A LIMITED EXTENT THE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ON RADAR NORTH OF I-80 AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA PER RADAR AT 08Z. WARM FRONT IS LOCATED VERY NEAR TO I-80 AND ISNT MOVING MUCH. TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. BY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL GROW SOMEWHAT AND THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH RAPIDLY. THIS PROVIDES A MORE CURVED HODOGRAPH IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A LARGER SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT. DEEP VERTICAL QG LIFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER.
AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS W AND CENTRAL OK/W N TX. WHICH ARE FAR COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING ROUNDING LARGE UPPER LOW NOW AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE.
1151 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. EXPANDED WINTER WX ADVY TO SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE JEMEZ AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
635 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
/ISSUED 1009 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ CAP HOLDING SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 80S EXPECT SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND WOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED.
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO SOUTHERN MN AND DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS LOW WILL THEN PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS POTENT SURGE OF CAA WILL DROP TEMPS NEARLY 30 DEGREES FROM SUN INTO MON AS HIGHS ON MON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. FROST MAY BE A CONCERN ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN/WI. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S SURGING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
A DEEP, SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE IDAHO/WYOMING/UT BORDER AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE IDAHO/UTAH/WYOMING BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
623 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
545 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK BEING FOUND IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL SEND A MODIFIED DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCE OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT MUGGY AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WITH COOLER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA.
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY AS STRONG AND BECOME NORTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
350 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
A DEFINITE DRYING TREND WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THIS STORM EXITS AND A TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG BLOCKING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A REX PRODUCING RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA PROMISES TO KEEP THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK AIMED AT OUR REGION.
310 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
1141 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A BROAD TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
647 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE BNDRYS POSSIBLY SCOURING THE LOWER CIGS.
5C/KM AND RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS THROUGH SUNDAY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
356 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 SOMEWHAT IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION DURING THE SHORT-TERM(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AS CLOSED UPPER LOW EXITS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES. PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
214 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
318 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW JUST MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY WITH A BIT DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A BIT WARMER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2015 FAIR AND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LOW IN EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.
CORE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR IDAHO FALLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW HAS PRODUCED A DRY SLOT INTO SE MONTANA WHILE COPIOUS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MONTANA. THIS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP AROUND INTO OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
1218 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SALT LAKE CITY AT THIS HOUR WHICH MATCHES NICELY WITH MODEL OUTPUT. THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE PLAINS STATES AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF SAID LOW BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD TROF IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST.
THIS IS COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE THIN NATURE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER AT TIMES COULD ALLOW A TAD MORE WARMING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
426 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
301 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO PULSE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH AN AIRMASS THAT CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH FILTERED CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES NORTHEAST. ALBEIT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AS STRONG MOMENTUM FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS TRANSFERRED TOWARD THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS (LOWER 70S) AND LESS SINKING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
303 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NEAR A WEAK UPPER WAVE. AS A RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL IL, THEN LOWER THEM TO THE LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND BUMP THEM BACK UP FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
115 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY THEN TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
250 PM PDT Sat May 16 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers or thunderstorms through the coming week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California.
340 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
123 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA AS THE RIDGE HAS PUT A CAPPING AFFECT ON THE ATMOSPHERE.
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND WEAK FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING BETTER FOR INTERIOR CONVECTION AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES CAPE MENDO.
FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ALONG WITH 10-15 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
From a regional radar perspective, on can make out a "back edge" to this activity, just to the west of the Highway 65 corridor. No doubt the better forcing and support for convection will be to our west through, though this will change with time as an upper level low shifts into the central/northern Plains. Instability lessens from the highway 65 corridor on east, as a result the better chances for severe weather for our outlook area will be generally along and west of the I-49 corridor. The better large scale forcing will shift to our north and a weakening cold front will essentially wash out over the area by Sunday afternoon.
A LARGE BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. A WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SUN AND MON WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RESULT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT. A NEW UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WELL OFFSHORE BETWEEN 135 AND 140W IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY SE INTO CA BY MON. WHILE WARMER TEMPS AT H8 WRAP IN FROM THE E. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND WARMER H8 TEMPS WILL SEE TEMPS WARM BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON. THIS EXPECTED TO PUSH MARINE CLOUDS BACK INLAND FOR COOLER TEMPS.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AFFECTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WHICH STAYED IN THE 70S BUT IN THE EAST HIGHS REACHED THE LOWER 80S.
302 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 RIBBON OF MOISTURE AT H7, DELIVERED BY ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE PERSISTENT NEARBY MID LEVEL RIDGE, HAS LED TO PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. SPC PWAT ANALYSIS IN THE LOWEST 400MB SHOWS ABOUT 1.
A FEW CLOUD STREETS WILL ADVECT INLAND ALONG THE COAST WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SPRINKLE BUT WITH THE LOWER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW DOMINANT THE MAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE DEVELOPING GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
TREND FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS UNTIL UPPER LOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO THE PLAINS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP POTENTIAL DOWN FROM SW TO NE TO COINCIDE WITH SAID MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW TO OUR SW. SO PLAN FOR ONLY MORNING MENTION OF PRECIP BEFORE ENDING AS MODELS SHIFT IN H5 RIDGE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM WILL GIVE THE CWA A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE U60S NORTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS WEEKS WEATHER HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NEVADA TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO STRENGTHENS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TOMORROW EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
1013 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER TONIGHT. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
734 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.
Low temps tonight will likely settle out only a few degrees below current readings, in the low to mid 50s. High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under the ridge, winds are generally light and variable. Some disagreement in the models depiction of the higher dewpoints.
536 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
647 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
/ISSUED 333 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
19z water vapor imagery shows a highly amplified trough ridge pattern over the western to Central CONUS. Depending on actual extent of cloud cover and duration, will likely impact the high temperatures.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS WILL DRY OUT TROPOSPHERE WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
/ISSUED SAN ANGELO TX 341 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Latest analysis and satellite data show an upper ridge across the southeastern US with a trough deepening over southern California/Arizona. Southwest flow aloft is increasing across west Texas as the ridge continues to move off to the east and the upper trough approaches. At the surface, a lee trough over far west Texas has resulted in increasing southeasterly low level flow this afternoon, with dewpoints on the increase. we may see a few showers and very light rain or drizzle develop along the interstate 10 corridor as warm air advection develops ahead of the upper trough. As clouds move in during the day tomorrow, we will see cooler temperatures, with highs in the 70s.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 73 62 73 / 10 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 75 58 74 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 74 59 73 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 74 55 73 / 10 10 10 10.
613 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
909 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AT SFC. WITH OTHER PLACES IN THE LOWER 70S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT FROM THE PACIFIC THAT IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FEED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
607 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under the ridge, winds are generally light and variable. Some disagreement in the models depiction of the higher dewpoints.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE GREAT VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE WET WEEKEND SYSTEM WHICH IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHORE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A LAYER AROUND FIVE TO EIGHT THOUSAND FEET IS BEING LIFTED IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH SUFFICIENT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BRINGING THE LAYER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
915 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A WARM AND STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT BY A DEEP RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ABOUT HALFWAY BTWN BERMUDA AND THE NRN BAHAMAS THIS EVNG. TRAILING AXIS DRAPED BACK ACRS THE I-4 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL FL IS IN TANDEM WITH A THERMAL RIDGE CENTERED S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH H70 TEMPS BTWN 9-10 AND H50 TEMPS ARND -6C. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BAND OF H85-H30 VORTICITY EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS ACRS S FL/FL KEY DUE TO A LOW AMP MID LVL ERLY WAVE PUSHING AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT.
942 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
639 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
/ISSUED 234 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015/ MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND MORE SO ON THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OVER COLORADO.
An upper level trof extending south from a closed low moving east through the Midwest and Great Lakes will pass through the region today. Really not expecting much in the way of precipitation with this upper trof, but it will serve to bring in another round of clouds, which would keep temps from warming out of the 40s at most locations this afternoon. Thereafter, a large dome of chilly high pressure will build in from the west.
1055 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO MID TN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT- BKN CLOUDS. AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU FRI NIGHT. AND RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN. 31 A QUIET AND NICE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
DECIDED TO GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SEEMED TO VERIFY A TAD TOO WARM IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WHICH IS PROBABLY WHY THE STAT GUIDANCE REALLY INCREASES THE MAXES FOR TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS, AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY, BUT THESE WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED. RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, PLUS THE DRIER AIRMASS, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.