Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will move through from north to south through midday. Today Through Sunday Cool and dry weather prevails throughout the period as deep longwave troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS with dry northwesterlies aloft and little low level moisture.
Concur with the deterministic NWP models that the upper synoptic pattern will be characterized by a mean trough over the ERN CONUS and a ridge over the WRN CONUS during the period. Warmer today owing to drier atmosphere/air mass modification. Readings may approach freezing over potions of the CWA early Sunday morning.
Mid level moisture is almost here but the lower level moisture will be lagging behind a bit and will start to arrive closer to 12Z. Main timing of the best low to mid level forcing associated with an incoming cold front will be from 12Z- 15Z and then it drops off considerably after that. There is some dry air in the lowest few thousand feet that the snow will have to overcome at first. By this afternoon, we will see the lower level moisture shifting east with time, so the chances for light snow showers or flurries will be coming to an end. Northwest winds will be picking up by late morning into the afternoon as a cold front plows through. However, winds will become southwesterly late tonight ahead of another cold front that will pass through here dry on Sunday.
131 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Strong north-northwest flow continues over the northern plains between a ridge to the west and a trough to the east. Even warmer air moves into the region for Sunday, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
A ridge/trough upper level pattern across the U. This flow will be dry for us and it will help to bring a couple of cold fronts through during this forecast.
345 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough that brought wintry wx to Texas exiting the MS Valley, while to the west, a highly-amplified ridge has moved a little further inland over the wrn CONUS.
A few sheltered locations may touch 32 degrees late tonight for an hour or so, but confidence lacking for meeting Freeze Warning criteria: Even where temperatures are starting out colder in the Lower Valley, dewpoints remain in the mid-upper 30s. Farther northwest, current dewpoints are just above freezing and temps remain in the mid-40s at this hour with winds expected to stay up at 5-10mph the rest of the night. Decided for these areas to go ahead and undercut guidance a bit, but still managed to keep all the CWA above freezing due to surface winds remaining a bit elevated. Will issue SPS for the northern tier given the close proximity to the freezing mark overnight.
NAM has been very inconsistent with this system and seems unreasonable as moisture will be very shallow and mainly below 10,000 feet, so anything more than a dusting in the higher elevations on the northern Plateau is very unlikely. Winds will pick up after 15Z and become southwest and gusty around 20 to 25 KTS as a dry cold front approaches.
Slightly cooler temperatures today as the winds shift around to more northwesterly behind a prefrontal trough. Much cooler temperatures expected overnight tonight as dense Arctic air drops into the Midwest. Winds coming around to more southerly in a weak ridging on Sunday. enough to keep the high temps up into the mid to upper 30s, and Sun night warmer as well.
A highly amplified upper tropospheric pattern was in place over the CONUS this afternoon with a sharp blocking west coast ridge extending from off the Baja California to Barrow, Alaska. Surface ridging builds in for Saturday with a H850 downslope-modified airmass building in behind the ridge axis. Highs on Saturday will be a few degrees warmer given the increase in temps aloft with light northwesterly winds. H850 temps will top out around +8 to +10 C with corresponding surface temps rising into the low 60s, aided by ample BL mixing and large dewpoint depressions.
236 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure just off the coast this morning will move off to the northeast this afternoon taking much of the moisture with it.
The low pressure area and upper trough will move away this morning with brisk nnwly winds and cold advection in its wake.
The net result with very low dewpoints in place will be a continuation of dry and cold conditions with the only chance of anything other than that being in the higher terrain of Garrett and Tucker counties, where some evidence exists that a bit of the current virga on radar may briefly make it to the ground as a touch of light snow. The trough axis will be east of the area by Sunday morning, however, cold air advection behind the trough will keep snow showers going, mainly over the I-80 corridor and ridge counties. Once the lower cigs and vis reach the region, they will remain through the rest of the forecast period.
358 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 The North Country will be in between systems today with a trough of low pressure to our west and deeper moisture off the East Coast. The trough of low pressure to our west will move in later tonight and Sunday and bring snow showers to the area.
Hudson Bay low pressure system continues to bring an active pattern to the eastern CONUS in the way of high frequency of short waves in the overall eastern trough. High amplitude pattern with a sharp ridge over the western CONUS as high pressure centered near KRNO. Forecast hourly temperatures show areas getting above freezing between 10 and 11am. With the sun finally in view, much drier air, and temperatures above freezing, expect quick melting of ice on roadways and much of the snow. Temperatures tonight will dip to freezing again away from the coast and tidal lakes by 2am and remain through around 8am.
Wave will continue to move to the East early this morning, pushing the cold front further to the Southeast of the region. Increasing sunshine is expected for the middle to late afternoon hours as high pressure ridge builds from the West. With the cold front to the Southeast the colder airmass will settle over the region. Lows Tonight, away from the immediate coast, are expected to fall below freezing. Longwave trough will remain carved out across the eastern two- thirds of the conus on Sunday.
1007 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE High amplitude ridge axis extending s to n from AZ through the PacNW with n to nw flow over NM. Ridge axis to drift slowly ewd next 24 hrs with diminishing winds aloft as weak sfc lee trough develops by 09/21Z. Above normal temperatures are expected for the next 7 days, despite a couple of back door cold fronts. Through the weekend, the high amplitude upper level ridge across the western CONUS will slowly inch eastward. On Saturday, temperatures will increase up to 10 degrees over today's readings, and on Sunday, another degree or two warmer.
426 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the region this afternoon into this evening. The low levels are dry and as the system approaches today it will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate. Winds will pick up this evening with the passage of the cold front.
400 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates through the weekend.
424 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area the rest of the night with clearing skies and cool temperatures. A ridge of high pressure will keep a cool and dry east flow through tonight. Pleasant weather can be expected through basically all of this upcoming week with mainly dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
401 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will keep the region on the cool and dry side through the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure centered over the OH will remain wedged into the lower MS valley with a continuation of the dry northeasterly wind flow. Expect high in the low 80's and lows Sunday night falling into the upper 50's near 60.
High amplitude upper ridge was in the process of gradually breaking down. Hot temperatures in the lower to mid 90s will occur today with a near record high in Billings. A cold front will push across the area late tonight and early Sunday. Winds will increase behind the front, but it looks like to strongest winds will be in the morning, coinciding with the highest humidity levels.
331 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Southeast Texas remains dry with little temperature change (below normal readings) over the weekend as high pressure stays in control while Hurricane Irma works her way north- ward across the far eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula area.
201 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Early this morning, high pressure was centered over the Great Lakes. A back door cold front off of Lake Michigan aided in keeping winds up and slightly lower dewpoints across the eastern zones. High pressure through the short term period will be the primary weather driver. Easterly winds associated the back door cold front will continue today. As a result, high temperatures of yesterday will likely be the highs today. Lows will be slightly warmer tonight across the area.
358 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure ridge aloft will remain over the region and Colorado with a light westerly flow aloft.
338 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 AS of 08z Saturday morning an upper level ridge axis extended from the TX panhandle, northwestward into southern MT. A warm front extended from eastern NE into southwestern SD. The increase cloud cover across the area Saturday night should lead to slightly warmer temperatures Sunday morning with lows in the low 60s. Surface winds shift to easterly as Irma comes onshore somewhere over the southeast US, with the western ridge nosing over the high plains into the late week. Chances for rain may increase later in the weekend as an upper trof moves into the western and northern US and returns southwesterly flow over the plains.
140 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 138 AM CDT A pleasant fall weekend is in store as anexpansive upper ridge across the upper Midwest will spread east, while only slowly progressing through the Great Lakes region. KMD 138 AM CDT A weak upper disturbance across the northern/central plains will attempt to push into the upper ridge, but attempts appear pretty futile such that little more than a few clouds will slowly spread into the area from this feature to start the week. The upper ridge looks to also keep the remnants of Hurricane Irma from making headway northwest to the region, but there is some guidance that brings some higher clouds into northwest Indiana.
An upper level trough will support cloudy skies today. High pressure builds Sunday for drier and warmer conditions.
532 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure and quiet conditions will prevail through tonight, but the outer rainbands from Hurricane Irma may begin impacting the far southern CWFA by late Sunday afternoon. The higher terrain of northern GA will also see gusts to around 30mph, while the lower elevations across the far north should stay in the 15 to 25mph range.
Saturday will start off cloudy as a mid-level trough continues to affect the North Country.
With high pressure gradually moving off to the east, we should see one more night with widespread frost potential. An upper level trough of low pressure, dislodged from the sub-tropical jet stream, will be positioned over the Dakotas Saturday evening. The trough will gradually meander eastward into the Upper Midwest by Sunday afternoon with increasing cloud cover expected.
657 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area the rest of the night with clearing skies and cool temperatures. A ridge of high pressure will keep a cool and dry east flow through tonight. Pleasant weather can be expected through basically all of this upcoming week with mainly dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will gradually build southeast across our region during the course of the weekend.
Latest satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis depicts broad low amplitude troughing over most of the CONUS. South of that, the center of a middle and upper anticyclone is located near 27 N 71 W, with another deep middle and upper ridge oriented from just off the SW Florida Coast west across the Gulf to Central Mexican Pacific Coast, creating the void in betwixt these features which is now allowing for the movement of Hurricane Irma towards Florida Peninsula. As a result and locally, a special 06Z midnight sounding illustrated near tropical storm force NE winds are already in the low to mid troposphere with winds already averaging 30-35 knots off the surface in the outermost circulation of Irma, with PWAT risen to a very moist 2.
300 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 138 AM CDT A pleasant fall weekend is in store as anexpansive upper ridge across the upper Midwest will spread east, while only slowly progressing through the Great Lakes region. KMD 138 AM CDT A weak upper disturbance across the northern/central plains will attempt to push into the upper ridge, but attempts appear pretty futile such that little more than a few clouds will slowly spread into the area from this feature to start the week. The upper ridge looks to also keep the remnants of Hurricane Irma from making headway northwest to the region, but there is some guidance that brings some higher clouds into northwest Indiana.
415 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 (Today and Tonight) Stubborn upper level ridging will continue to control the weather across west central Texas. The ridge will actually strengthen just a hair, but this will do little more than keep temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for highs, and keep the area dry. As surface winds stay out of the southeast, low level moisture will increase slightly, which will result in lows remaining slightly warmer than the past few nights.
Cooler and breezy weather will prevail for the weekend thinning the smoke out. JW 06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to gradually push out of the region through Saturday as southwest winds increase ahead of a cold front. As the cold front passes Saturday afternoon and evening an increase in mid level clouds will occur.
Look for daytime highs in the lower/mid 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the 50s.
422 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 A mostly dry forecast in store as high pressure will dominate the southern plains for the majority of the forecast period. This is what will help draw up warmer temperatures toward the end of the week.
It will be a bit breezy Saturday afternoon in Kansas and Nebraska as the lee trough redevelops/deepens in eastern Colorado and increases the pressure gradient.
624 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure firmly in control over the Upper Great Lakes should result in a pleasant day today with plenty of sunshine. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies with a closed low off the CA coast and a closed low associated with Irma over the sern U. There is also a trough in eastern Canada as well at that time. The ridge builds into the plains on Wed and into the upper Great Lakes on Thu and Fri. Under high pressure and continue dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through this forecast period.
Quite the chilly night out there as expansive Canadian high pressure has settled across the region. This will allow rather aggressive height rises to continue today, with stout mid level ridge axis centering itself directly overhead by Sunday morning. Expect highs today to be several degrees warmer than those observed yesterday, with reading topping out largely in the middle 60s (perhaps just a bit cooler near Lake Huron). Still think those typical cooler interior areas will make a run into the mid and upper 30s, just cold enough to produce a bit of frost.
348 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 An upper level ridge was over the Northland this morning with a trough just off to the west over the Northern Plains. The upper trough will move east tonight into the Red River Valley. As the upper trough moves over Minnesota Sunday clouds will increase, especially over the western half of the Northland. Highs will be warmer than today and be in the seventies for most areas.
Cooler temperatures will also accompany Idaho this weekend, with forecast highs in the low to mid 80s across the Snake Plain. These temperatures will warm again early in the week with rebuilding high pressure. This feature will be short-lived however, as a new low pressure center influences our weather pattern. This low is expected to be centered off to our southwest with much moisture surging northwards ahead of it.
238 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure firmly in control over the Upper Great Lakes should result in a pleasant day today with plenty of sunshine. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies with a closed low off the CA coast and a closed low associated with Irma over the sern U. There is also a trough in eastern Canada as well at that time. The ridge builds into the plains on Wed and into the upper Great Lakes on Thu and Fri. Under high pressure and a continued dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through this forecast period.
Thunderstorm chances will then decrease early in the new week as high pressure builds overhead and we lose a little moisture. This southerly flow is between high pressure over central Texas and an upper low near San Francisco. The Frisco upper low will move south and be west of southern CA on Sunday while the Texas upper high will migrate to the 4 corners as Hrcn Irma moves north across Florida. This SE flow aloft will advect some drier air over the area on Sunday limiting thunderstorm activity to mainly the higher terrain and areas south of Tucson.
1105 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Upper analysis currently showing a broad upper ridge over the western two-thirds of the CONUS with a trough over the east. At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the northern Rockies with a high pressure center over the Great Lakes region. Some convection has already develop over the higher elevations of the Black Hills but so far the cell have only been weak and short-lived. On Saturday and Sunday, a weak upper trough will move to the east of the CWA with lingering lift/narrow instability tongue supporting low PoPs over central SD on Saturday and over the Black Hills Sunday afternoon.
122 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will begin to move into the area overnight with clearing skies and cool temperatures. Will have to carry a slight chance pop to honor this given propensity of pcpn today with this departing long wave trough and weak embedded waves coupled with lake enhancement. Cool temps tonight with lows dropping into the lower and middle 40s as high pressure builds into Great Lakes and lower dew points advect in. Expansive ridge to remain in control over the western Great Lakes through the period.
408 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates through the weekend.
339 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Increasing southeasterly winds today and for most areas a bit warmer and sunny today. There is a compact but well developed upper low in NW South Dakota which will move east today and drift into the southern RRV later tonight. T-storms with this feature confined to a small area south of the upper low and it is this small area south of the upper low which is most prone to have precip as it moves through. Thicker mid clouds with this feature over the far east and southeast fcst area while north and northwest of the low airmass remains quite dry. Quite warm as well with thermal ridge at 850 mb into NE ND Sun aftn.
This weekend, Nevada will remain stuck between low pressure off the California coast and high pressure to the east. Sunday will be a drier and warmer day.
A rather benign weather pattern is in store for the Four-State Region as dry northerly/northwesterly flow prevails for the extended UA ridging across the South Plains promoted northwest flow aloft across the Four-State Region this morning.
430 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a 1024mb high over Ohio valley with an associated ridge axis to northeast Texas. Upper air analysis revealed a trough axis from just east Hudson to northeast CONUS. Upper level trough is expected to push to the Eastern Seaboard today and lift northeast Sunday.
There was a leeside trough in the lower troposphere, which provided enough pressure gradient across southwest Kansas for 20 to 25 mph wind out of the south today. The upper high will be centered from the Desert Southwest region into Wyoming, and this will help keep the lower troposphere very warm/hot across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Around 40 knots of low level wind shear may be present in the lowest 2000 ft between GCK and HYS this morning.
204 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates through the weekend. Valley fog was already forming across the north, in a low level inversion behind a weak cold front slipping southward through the area. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will continue to funnel cooler than normal temperatures southward Saturday, despite abundant sunshine. Will continue with the primarily clear and dry with high pressure in control over the Great Lakes.
634 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will help provide dry and quiet weather conditions for the Ohio Valley over the weekend.
235 AM PDT Sat Sep 9 2017 A trough of low pressure will bring cooler weather and a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon in the mountains and deserts. Increasing moisture and instability with the low will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
238 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Ridging across the south central CONUS is expected through the weekend with respectable lows (one a tropical cyclone [Irma]) well to our west and east. This will help evolve the mid-level flow a bit as we remain on the eastern periphery of high pressure. The MJO hints at a cold front here in about two weeks.
418 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes Region will direct dry air into our forecast area through tonight.
345 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017 The persistent ridge of high pressure has finally moved off to our east and an approaching trough will bring strong westerly flow to the Northern Rockies today and into Sunday. The high elevations of northwest Montana could see wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph this afternoon and evening especially near the Continental Divide. Sunday will continue to be cooler with breezy conditions.
1125 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017 The upper ridge axis continues to shift eastward allowing a better fetch of moisture into southern CO. -KT Sat night through Tue, an upper ridge will be over the forecast area with enough moisture over the area for daily pcpn chances, mostly over and near the higher terrain. These will potentially bring a better chance for pcpn to the southeast plains, in addition to the higher terrain locations.
353 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will help provide dry and quiet weather conditions for the Ohio Valley over the weekend.
Upper 50s to the lower 60s still look good for afternoon highs. High pressure will dominate conditions for the majority of the short term period - or through the weekend as it were. As high pressure begins to sag southwards, westerly 850mb flow will help to enhance mixing despite light winds Saturday, and temperatures will top out about 5 degrees above average. It will become a warm front as a lee low forms in eastern Montana/Wyoming so it should/probably not effect our weather.
The 12Z sounding showed drier and warmer air aloft, with light winds due to high pressure overhead. The ridge will begin to shift east this afternoon, with a light south to southwesterly flow aloft. A very warm and mostly sunny day is forecast, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s towards the coast. High pressure over the region today will lead to light winds.
740 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Canadian high pressure will build SE across the Great Lakes today and remain in place through the weekend. A low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday.
710 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Saturday.