Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
140 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 20z surface analysis had low over southwest MN with inverted trough into western ND. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SD. Light upslope snow continues over the higher terrain of the Black Hills. Tonight/Tuesday, upper low will spin into western IA by 12z and then take off to the east. A couple of weak waves may product some wind shifts, but general trend will be warmer and drier.
Main core of intense winds aloft coming into SW KS presently, off the higher terrain of west central Kansas, showing up nicely on satellite imagery as a dust plume heading towards Garden City and Dodge City areas. Very dry boundary layer air is being compressed dry adiabatically as it descends from the the higher terrain to the NW, so temperatures will easily rise through the 50s this afternoon. Upgraded inherited high wind watch to a high wind warning, and continued to exclude the SW counties where the pressure gradients will be weaker (further removed from the intense 526 dm upper low in western Iowa Tuesday morning). Cold air advection on Tuesday will drop 850 mb temperatures to near 0C, with temperatures struggling to get into the lower 50s during the afternoon.
234 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 (Tonight and Tuesday) The cold front is now south of West Central Texas. The highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
242 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 /Tonight/ The cold front and rain has now moved south of the region, and a tranquil and cool night is expected. A few locations across the northwestern areas of the CWA may fall to near freezing, but these temperatures should only occur for a few hours around daybreak.
An approaching cold front will bring additional clouds along the chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. A prefrontal trough will turn winds northerly at LRD in the next hour or so (18Z-21Z) but winds will strengthen later this evening with the actual front.
Southwest winds may gust at times tonight along the higher elevations because of 850mb winds around 40 kt; however, winds expected to remain below advisory criteria. Cold front moves east on Tuesday morning with a dry slot moving into the area by mid-day.
258 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 The High Wind Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire Tri-State region and the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the entire Tri-State region. Winds will abruptly strengthen by ~15Z Tue (a few hours after sunrise) as mixing resumes amidst strong low/mid-level NW flow on the western periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the Northern Plains as it meanders southeast into IA/IL during the day.
246 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure through this evening. Warm front late tonight. Cold front Tuesday.
There are no precipitation echoes on KBYX Doppler radar, just a few streaks of chaff drifting well south of the Lower Keys. High surface pressure will settle across Florida tonight and then closer to the east coast of Florida on Tuesday as the large cyclone in the Western Atlantic starts to accelerate to the northeast. The next digging trough slides into the upper Midwest, and the surface reflection has a complex, elongated low stretching from near the Great Lakes to the southeast coast.
346 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure ridging southward across Ontario will be nudged northward tonight. This will allow low pressure to move into the region from the Midwest Tuesday night.
Weak high pressure offshore will slowly build into the area through tonight for a decreasing risk of showers.
Based on surface analysis at 16Z and visible satellite imagery, pre-frontal trough was located from Palestine back towards the NW Hill Country. The cold front had just pushed through Waco to Sulphur Springs. Overpeck Not planning on too many changes with current timing of the cold front and its associated showers/thunderstorms. Southerly winds 5-8 knots will veer to the southwest and increase to 10 knots ahead of an approaching cold front today. A second round of TSRA will be possible behind the cold front this evening as an upper level speed max translates across Southeast Texas and have continued VCTS wording through the evening/early morning hours Tuesday for the Houston terminals, SGR, LBX, and GLS.
312 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 The cold front that pushed through this morning will help overnight lows be cooler than recent nights with most areas seeing lows below freezing. A second shot of reinforcing cold air is expected to push through the FA by tomorrow afternoon allowing for an even cooler day tomorrow.
324 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 Negative tilt trough making inroads into Iowa. Surface and ground temps remain above freezing and have largely abated any travel impacts. Cooling of the atmospheric column should result in accumulating snow occurring in the highway 20 corridor with 1 to 2 inches possible east of Dubuque. Right now we have light snow moving back into the northwest half of the area through sunrise as the atmosphere resaturates and the upper low moves out of central Iowa. If the atmosphere saturates slower or the upper low is slower then the possibility exists that the second half of tonight could be dry. Forcing from the lows combined with limited heating is expected to generate showers that increase in areal coverage through the afternoon.
Weak high pressure aloft and breezy offshore winds will bring warm and dry conditions to the area through mid week. Moist southwest flow aloft ahead of a trough will likely bring increasing clouds, cooler conditions, and increasing shower chances later this week. Highs today warming up into the lower 70s and likely another 4-8 degrees of warming Tuesday. ***From previous discussion*** A jump in H5 heights from around 564 dm to 570 dm (today) and 572 dm (Tue) due to weak ridging aloft, combined with the offshore flow will bring significant warming with widespread 70s for highs to the west of the mountains today and maybe a few degrees of additional warming for some areas away from the coast Tuesday.
/18Z TAFS/ Light SHRA near and ahead of a cold front will impact the I-35 terminals through around 20Z, mainly through an occasional mvfr level cig. This will send a cold front into the area late this morning. High temperatures today will top out in the 70s and 80s with the higher values in the southwestern CWA where the front will take longer to reach.
With the overall storm circulation moving further southeast, the the axis of low pressure stretches both upstream and downstream through the entire central and high plains region. Finally, by Tuesday afternoon, enough of the low pressure energy will have moved southeast, and enough of the high pressure ridge will have moved toward our area from the southwest to allow for warmer and calm weather conditions to begin to spread over the region.
1251 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will slowly shift east today.
355 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 The cold front continues to make solid ground through our cwa and stretches from Nacogdoches to Shreveport to Magnolia and should be through all but a handful of our SE parishes by sundown. A 1019mb high pressure center will build in for a nice evening with clouds clearing from NW to SE overnight.
Fire weather concerns will prevail through the afternoon behind the front, especially for much of northeast OK as these locations see the lowest relative humidity values and windiest conditions through the afternoon.
451 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 High pressure over the area will move offshore tonight. Rain is likely on Tuesday as a cold front crosses the area.
The low clouds look to remain south of the KSJT and KABI terminals allowing for VFR conditions across these terminals. A few locations could dip into the lower 30s.
An inverted trough setup over central North Dakota was delivering heavy snow across the state.
Upper low is now east of us and moving away. A weak following short wave trough will bring flurries to our northern-most Idaho mountains today.
318 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 Deep low pressure wrapping northward near southeast SD this afternoon.
The High Wind Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire Tri-State region and the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the entire Tri-State region.
217 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Weak weather disturbances in northwest flow aloft will bring scattered snow showers to the area the rest of this afternoon and early evening, followed by drier conditions through mid-week as an upper-level ridge builds over the area.
359 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 A strong upper level closed low will be slowly making its way across the Ohio Valley. At the surface we see a weakening low pressure system across the Ohio Valley and a deepening low across the Mid Atlantic coast.
Upper trough rotating into the central plains this morning, as mid/upper level wind maximum pushes eastward across CO. Still a few flurries and some patchy blowing snow over the higher peaks of the central mountains, but activity is not widespread enough to warrant any highlights and will end the current winter wx advisory as snowfall should continue to wane through the morning.
Low level moisture still wrapping into and north of the low, fueling the sloping frontogenetic lift (highlighted in north-south running x-sections) and lingering low level thermodynamics. Wind remains a factor this evening, blowing 20-30 mph with gusts to 40, but should slacken overnight as the low approaches, lowering the threat for blowing/drifting in the wind prone areas (se mn/ne ia/ridgetops). The GFS and EC still favoring generally northwest flow into the upcoming weekend, with perhaps some ridge building by Sun/Mon. The northwest flow will also usher in some cooler, below normals temperatures into the weekend, with perhaps some rebound to seasonable normals by the end of the weekend.
The strong, deep forcing will exit the forecast area by 00z but be replaced by weaker forcing which maintains a similar depth and moisture profile as the stacked upper low settles into northern IA tonight. The highest end of that range would be over northern Iowa, especially toward the MN border.
1009 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 15z surface analysis had deepening low over northwest IA with inverted trough into central ND and southern MT. Current surface map places deepening low pressure over eastern Nebraska, with inverted trof through eastern South Dakota into central North Dakota. Water vapor shows mid/upper low over eastern Montana with next upper low beginning to cut off over southeast South Dakota. As upper low cuts off over southeast South Dakota today, lift increases across central south Dakota into north Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the area for the end of the work week, with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Next upper trof arrives for the weekend, bringing a chance of snow to the area.
239 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Weak weather disturbances in northwest flow aloft will bring scattered snow showers to the area the rest of this afternoon and early evening, followed by drier conditions through mid-week as an upper-level ridge builds over the area.
740 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front and associated low pressure area move east of the region this morning. Weak high pressure then builds in from the west thereafter through Sunday evening. A cold front will slowly approach from the west for late Sunday night.
High pressure to our west will drift our way today.
The center of the high will retreat westward by Sunday as an upper-level low begins to dig into the Great Lakes. Will continue a mostly dry forecast for Sunday, but am introducing slight to low chance PoPs for Sunday evening across the north, as the trough axis moves near Lake Erie.
Very warm to hot weather will grip the Bay Area this weekend as high pressure builds across California from the desert southwest. High pressure aloft is building westward into southern and central California during the weekend. Thus, much warmer temperatures are anticipated today and Sunday, especially across inland locations as well as in the higher terrain. Some inland locations could be 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs today forecast to exceed 100 degrees in some areas. In addition to a warmer airmass, this high pressure ridge will also bring in drier air, especially inland away from the marine influence.
1236 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Low pressure will approach from the western Great Lakes region today, but weaken and dissipate before it reaches Maine. A cold front will begin to cross the region then stall later Sunday into Sunday night. Although a cold upper trough will cross the area, conditions at the surface will be symptomatic of a warm front with a cool and dry air mass being overrun by a warmer and more humid air mass from the south. In contrast, the onshore flow along the coast will keep highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to around 60F except a bit cooler on the coast. A cold front will move south Sunday then stall across the forecast area Sunday night.
High pressure across the central Prairie Provinces of Canada into the Northern Plains will maintain a quiet weather pattern across the region today. Skies will be mainly sunny with decidedly cooler temperatures especially north central where highs will be in the mid 70s.
1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. Mid-to-upper level trough swinging across the area this morning has triggered a few showers over the Mohawk Valley and western Catskills. The upper level trough axis will set up over New England today.
Water vapor imagery showed mid level dry air over the Atlantic in association with subsidence between mid-upper ridge to the north and TUTT axis to the south. The low rain chances and lack of cloudiness will make it feel hotter, longer. After record warm lows tied/set at coastal sites yesterday, all locations this morning were cooler than their record warm lows.
1022 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Quite warm and generally dry weather will hold over the CWA today through Sunday with upper ridging remaining over the area.
916 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 12Z sounding this morning showed a capping inversion aloft, with a very high freezing level above 16. 500mb high pressure aloft will drift southward today, but it will continue to suppress convection. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the interior and the upper 80s at the beaches.
/issued 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ The cold front continues to inch southward across the CWA early this morning and is running nearly parallel to and just north of Interstate 40.
Onshore flow will become strong this afternoon and evening in response to an upper level trough that will cross the forecast area tonight.
The highest confidence is expected over northwestern and central OK.
703 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air data depict an amplified mid-level ridge from the Great Basin to lee of the Canadian Rockies and a downstream trough across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Meanwhile, cooler marine air will persist along the coast, with temperatures moderating slightly during the afternoon as low clouds dissipate. The blocking pattern with the upper level ridge over the western half of the country persists this morning. An upper level trough is starting to approach the west coast this morning, but only minimal changes are expected with this as it moves by to the north.
Upper level ridge over the Rockies will move east and flatten over the Northern Plains by Sun and over the Great Lakes by 12Z Tue. Upper level trough off the BC coast will follow in tow and move into northeastern Canada by the end of the period. The region will be stuck in zonal flow aloft before transitioning to slightly more northwesterly flow between an upper low near Hudson Bay and ridging continuing to build across the southern CONUS.
/issued 348 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ Early Saturday morning, water vapor imagery showed a large upper- level ridge extending from the desert southwest to the central plains. However, quite a bit of monsoonal moisture was circulating through the ridge and there was a small mid-level low embedded within the ridge over eastern Colorado. As the easterly wave moves slowly westward away from the region today, any upper-level support for convective development this afternoon becomes very nebulous, and model progs show a decrease in deep-layer moisture as drier air located over western OK and north Texas rotates around the upper high and over West Texas.
915 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley will drift slowly east across the forecast area today. The high will slide SE Sunday allowing a cold front to push across the forecast area Sunday night. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi will drift slowly east today. The high slides SE Sunday allowing a cold front to approach from the NW.
731 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Aviation It will remain slightly cooler than normal today as the Canadian origin High pressure system passes through the area. Another Canadian cold front will head our way and be through most of the area by sunrise. Expect a line of thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front.
1115 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Slightly drier and cooler through tonight under weak high pressure.
1053 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Low pressure will move further offshore as a weak trough of low pressure develops just inland this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds in from the west through Sunday evening. A cold front will slowly approach from the west for late Sunday night.
1028 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 An upper level trough will cross northern New England today, while weak low pressure passes to our south. Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will occur along and in advance of this trough today. As the trough exits tonight, clearing and drier weather can be expected that will last into Sunday.
Temperatures have been trending a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. High pressure centered near the Four Corners region continues to keep the area under dry and warm conditions. Ridging will build slightly westward this weekend and combine with a suppressed marine layer to continue the warming trend for the weekend.
Rolla will remain nearly overcast through the morning, with Rugby and Harvey just on the outer fringes of the low cloud area through noon CDT. High pressure across the central Prairie Provinces of Canada into the Northern Plains will maintain a quiet weather pattern across the region today. Skies will be mainly sunny with decidedly cooler temperatures especially north central where highs will be in the mid 70s.
1039 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front currently stretches across northern portions of the CWA, and will be a focal point for convection today as it eases south. /issued 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ The cold front continues to inch southward across the CWA early this morning and is running nearly parallel to and just north of Interstate 40.
High pressure will be centered along the Nevada and Utah border with monsoonal moisture trapped beneath the ridge. With the lack of a focus mechanism, todays convection will be single cells or pulse type storms that initially form over the higher terrain with a preference over eastern Nevada. With ridge in the vicinity, hot conditions prevail today. On Sunday, high pressure flattens as a short wave drags across the northern Intermountain region. Northeast Nevada is on the periphery of the ridge and this location will be the preferred area for convective development.
1020 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across far south central KY this morning near the cold front. Surface analysis reveals a weak cold front north of the TN border that is slowly moving south. Drier air and subsidence associated with high pressure have resulted in mostly clear skies behind the front. Warm and dry weather can be expected Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
Night/morning low clouds and fog will be restricted to coastal areas as the marine layer becomes shallower under strengthening high pressure aloft. The low clouds had spread inland past Fallbrook and Rancho San Diego in San Diego County and only as far as Laguna Hills in Orange County, with no clouds north of Newport Beach. Clearing is well under way and the low clouds should clear well offshore by 11 am. The upper-level ridge has begun it's progression northward, which has brought stronger southeast flow in the mid-levels, although the lower levels remain very dry as seen on the morning KNKX sounding. The ridge may be a bit strong for much convection over the mountains today, but a stray shower/thunderstorm could develop this afternoon as a weak upper-level disturbance moves over the area.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Upper ridge over the region with very hot airmass spreading north from the Great Basin. With high pressure over the northern plains, low level winds will turn southeast and should increase enough to be close to lake wind criteria for Fort Peck Lake. As the front range boundary moves east thunderstorms may develop over the higher terrain of central Montana this afternoon and across northeast Montana overnight. With the higher PW some rain is possible, but mostly expect erratic winds and lightning. This flow will be based on a large area of high pressure centered over Central Plains and a large upper trough centered over northern Alberta. The frontal boundary from the trough will stretch NE to SW across the CWA.
High pressure aloft was centered near Las Vegas this morning, and will slowly move into southern Utah by Sunday.
/Issued 337 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ Short term progs are handling the early morning convection fairly well and continue to shift the higher coverage of precip southward through today.
1037 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Surface observations this morning show a convergent wind shift/surface boundary across southeast TN stretching back into central Middle TN with the weak cold front and drier air still across southeast KY approaching the TN border. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 88 70 / 60 30 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 67 87 69 / 60 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 66 87 68 / 60 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 87 65 / 40 10 10 10.
933 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure centered just northwest of Pontiac this morning keeping the weather largely quiet this morning. The rest of the CWA still looks to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. A weak high pressure ridge remains in control of the weather across Central Illinois this morning. And with slightly drier air in place, the warm temperatures in the low 80s with plenty of sunshine and light winds will result in a mild, pleasant day for Central Illinois. Overnight tonight, the ridge axis shifts to the east and the winds become increasingly south/southwesterly, starting a prolonged period of warm air advection into the region that will bring a warming trend into the work week.
958 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Band of thunderstorms with torrential downpours is expected to continue sinking slowly southward for the remainder of the day, ahead of diffuse cold front. Frontal boundary and an upper level trough axis will work in unison and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across Middle TN this morning.
403 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over south central Canada, with warm front north and east of the area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern US, with broad ridge covering the western US. Warmer air has pushed into the area, with temps in the 50s across the plains, 40s over the Black Hills. High clouds are spilling over the ridge to the west, with some filtered sun at times in most areas. The main weather feature for the next several days will be a passing cold front Monday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance of rain and snow showers over parts of the area.
Expect overnight lows to drop into the lower to middle 30s as dewpoints may continue to slowly fall another couple degrees or so overnight.