Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front continues to shift southward this evening and has already passed through KGAG/KWWR/KPNC/KCSM. The cold front will pass through all terminals tonight. As the cold front shifts southward, thunderstorms could impact KOKC and KOUN this evening. There could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the cold front. Also, a tornado risk will exist, if a storm can either develop in an area of backed/stronger surface winds, or with the extreme instability that exists, can locally enhance the low level helicity/shear. Elsewhere, storms may then try to develop south and west along an advancing cold front from Missouri southwest along the I-44 corridor. However, by late evening, the models do develop storms along the cold front across southern Oklahoma.
1050 AM PDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure builds over the region this weekend.
609 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure will slide south of the region tonight. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall.
The morning sun has allowed temps to rise into the low 70s across most of the area, helping to contribute to sfc based CAPE values of around 500 J/kg over northeast ND into northwest MN. As for temperatures, with showers holding off until later in the day we should climb into the low to mid 70s in most areas.
The main ridge axis will remain west of the area, which will keep the area in northwest flow. Tomorrow afternoon a backdoor cold front will push into eastern zones, mainly from Miles City and Broadus east. Tempeatures through the period will continue to be in the low to mid 70s.
213 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 A roller coaster of weather will be the highlight for central and southeast Kansas over the next 7 days. A cold front is situated to the north, a boundary is running parallel to the KS and OK border. The highest probability for storms will be east of a salina to Anthony line, while the greatest risk area for significant weather being to the east of the KS turnpike.
/issued 1222 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/ For this mornings update made several changes, bumped up the high temperatures for today and raised the overnight lows for most sites.
Temperatures ranged from the cool 40s and lower 50s across El Paso County to the lower 70s across the plains, with 60s across the high valleys and 40s and 50s mountains. Models show any showers and storms should be confined to the higher terrain and adjacent high valleys and I-25 corridor.
210 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Aviation/Hydro An area of low pressure will move from Central Illinois tonight through southern portions of the Lower Peninsula on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the low on Sunday. Rain showers remain in the forecast for Memorial Day as an upper low moves toward the region.
Overall, the upper air pattern remains PNA with west coast ridging and an upper trough over the upper Mississippi valley. Cool Canadian air should move into Kansas tonight and Sunday in association with a polar high pressure system building south through the plains. Continued forecast of MVFR cigs as cooler air comes in tonight followed by VFR late tonight and Sunday morning.
Otherwise, look for seasonably mild temperatures to continue into tonight For Sunday, temperatures will warm into the 80s across much of the interior, with a few locals hitting the lower 90s.
NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb, which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of sun and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into the upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more nice day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and showerier for Memorial Day.
658 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak high pressure will remain over the area through Sunday and will shift offshore Sunday night, allowing us a window of dry weather.
The upper-flow pattern for tonight and Sunday consists of an amplified ridge, with its axis centered along the West Coast, and a trough anchored by a closed, stacked low centered over central Manitoba. Through Sunday afternoon the ridge drifts east slightly and the low center plunges into southwest Ontario and northern Minnesota. Northeast Montana will remain under the boundary between the cooler air of the trough and the warmer air of the ridge, resulting in near normal late May temperatures. Sunday, models again point to a well mixed boundary layer with a pressure gradient increasing across western zones as the closed low to the northeast moves south and east. Upper ridge moves across the region through midweek then begins to break down.
The exception may be over the Lower Trans Pecos where low level moisture could get hung up, and provide a focus for a few storms this afternoon/evening. An upper trough currently extending from the north central U. Plains, southwestward into the central Rockies, will translate eastward tonight/Sunday and send a cold front south through the region in it's wake.
There will be a chance of thunderstorms late in the day Sunday with the approach of a sfc cold front and upper level short wave.
1228 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Mid level trough continues to dig across central North Dakota into southeast Wyoming early this morning. Will leave the highest chances for measurable rain near our southern border/Missouri Valley and into northwest Iowa with the initial band of rain this morning. Early week conditions will be courtesy of the influence from closed low over the western Great Lakes along with various impulses on the merry-go-round through the Northern Plains. First, temperatures will become cooler than normal once again to start the week, and have hedged temps a bit lower than climatologically impacted guidance.
1146 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017 GOES-R water vapor imagery depicted a positively-tilted trough axis from ND across southeast MT, western WY into northern UT/NV. The upper trough will shift to the east across the CWA today and into the plains this evening. Cyclonic flow aloft and a few weak disturbances rotating through the trough will maintain a cool and showery pattern today. Showers will end this evening with subsident and more stable air mass in the wake of upper trough passage. Sunday will trend somewhat drier with a northwest flow aloft on the anticyclonic side of the western CONUS upper ridge. High temperatures Sunday will be 5-10 degrees warmer with mid 60s-low 70s.
Synoptic pattern of stationary closed low near Hudson Bay, and broad ridging over the western U.
Another cold front will move into West Central Texas late tonight, and by mid morning tomorrow winds across all of West Central Texas will be from the north or northeast. Southwest to south winds will continue, ahead of a cold front that will reach KABI after midnight and then the remainder of the terminals Sunday morning. /issued 413 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Low level moisture continues to surge north and west into West Central Texas early this morning, with surface dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northwest Hill Country and even higher values stretching from the Rio Grande east into Central Texas. Cold front moves into West Central Texas tonight, mainly between midnight and sunrise.
A cold front currently extends from southern Ohio across southern Illinois and into the Texas panhandle. The cold front will move slowly south tonight. On Sunday, the cold front will be moving toward the forecast area reaching east Arkansas in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with more clouds over the region as highs will be in the low to mid 80s. By Sunday night, the cold front will finally move through much of the forecast area with more thunderstorms expected.
A cold front will shift winds to north around midnight and become gusty. A short wave rotating around an upper low in southern Canada will emerge into the Plains States to our north today into tonight and propel a cold front through our area tonight. Tomorrow should be much cooler than today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with gusty northerly winds. Also an upper trough is forecast to develop along the west coast and slowly approach helping increase instability.
618 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak low pressure will shift east the area this evening.
Cannot rule out pea sized hail with the heavier showers with the low freezing levels.
Flat mid level ridging over the central Gulf Coast region will be suppressed to the southeast by Sunday night as an upper low/trough moves across Ontario and the Great Lakes region during the first half of the week.
1222 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 For this mornings update made several changes, bumped up the high temperatures for today and raised the overnight lows for most sites.
The severe weather threat will continue into the overnight hours awaiting the passing cold front to clear the area from northwest to southeast.
Lower res models are slower, but may be underestimating the higher forward propagation that can occur in higher CAPE environments. Will remain in an active weather pattern early in the extended as a weakening cold front moves through the Southern Appalachian Region.
324 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak high pressure will remain over the area through Sunday and will shift offshore Sunday night, allowing us a window of dry weather.
149 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017 19z surface analysis had low over northern SK with several troughs rotating around it, one which is pushing through the CWA right now, another across ND and yet another in southern AB.
Added to this mix will be disturbances rounding the base of an upper trough of low pressure dropping South across the Rockies and into the Four Corners Region, and spreading across the surface boundaries providing added lift overnight and into Sunday, that will provide a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms. The cold front will overtake the dryline as it shifts Southeast overnight. The upper low and associated trailing trough of low pressure will nudge the cold front into parts of the Four State Region late tonight and into Sunday. The cold front will be slow to move across our area with the upper low moving into the Northern sections of the country and into the Upper Mid-West.
Vsbl satellite shows widespread CU developing amidst modest southwesterly flow in the lower levels. This should help to mix out the lower clouds and result in all TAF sites improving to VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Like yesterday, temperatures this morning are mainly in the lower 70s, some 15+ degrees above climatological normals. For the remainder of today, whatever fog develops expected to lift right after sunrise as the winds mix the boundary layer, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 80s, about 8-10 degrees above climatological normals. Not much change for Tuesday, as we remain in a predominate southerly flow at the surface with ridging aloft over the Gulf of Mexico.
247 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure in the forecast area will weaken today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
158 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Issued 620 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes for most of this week but temperatures will be cool with highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
224 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure will drift southeast across the region tonight for clearing skies and generally light winds, which will allow temperatures to fall rapidly this evening with many locations seeing temperatures fall to single digits above and below zero.
The strength of the low-level inversion will limit the potential for strong winds at the surface. /issued 327 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017/ A cold front continues to move through the Mid-South this morning. An area of low pressure will develop along the front near Northeast Texas and move east. Rain associated with the low will begin to spread into Northeast Arkansas around noon and will continue to move east affecting areas along and north of I-40 during the afternoon hours. The low will push into South Central Kentucky by sunrise allowing the cold front to begin pushing back to the south. Rain from this low will spread into areas along and south of I-40 during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and will continue into Tuesday Night.
1253 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 A cold front pushes southeast late this afternoon.
Trough axis will pass overhead this afternoon and bring most of the snow to end by evening.
and Tuesday Low clouds have been persistent across the region, but were finally starting to erode over the southwest part of the forecast area due to the influence of Canadian high pressure. The gradual clearing trend should continue this morning, with the last of the low clouds departing north central and far northeast WI in the mid to late morning. High temperatures will be in the lower 30s northwest to the middle to upper 30s elsewhere.
As expected, this was not the big cold push as temperatures at 2030Z range from the lower 60s in the Childress area to near 80 in Yoakum County. This moisture will come into play beginning tomorrow night as an upper level trough begins to sweep out of southern CO.
In the wake of this disturbance, high pressure will move into the area for the middle and later parts of the week.
Zonal flow aloft and weak low-level ridging continue to prevail locally.
A cold front is expected to move into the region late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
230 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 Several things going on at forecast time, most of which revolve around the cold front draped across our southern counties. This allowed temperatures, especially south of the cold front, to climb well into the 70s.
The low clouds will persist for much of the day with some eroding across the higher terrain of far southwest kansas during the afternoon. That area should have the warmer temperatures, although all areas will be unseasonably cool. A southeast diving s/wv trough across the northwest U. will begin to influence the high plains by Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will remain well above normal for early November with lows dropping only to the middle and upper 50s north to the lower and middle 60s south tonight. Despite clouds and rain in the area on Tuesday, highs should warm to the middle and upper 60s north to the lower 70s across the southern reaches of the viewing area. Chilly air will be filling in behind the system cold front Tuesday night.
There is really no model consensus, so with mostly clear skies and very efficient radiational cooling, trended the low temperatures tonight down a couple of degrees. Some model guidance suggests that the low may get quite a bit cooler, into the teens below zero, so will look at that again with the update this afternoon. Hickford A slow-moving arctic low pressure system over the region has allowed periods of light snow to persist through the overnight hours and into this morning for many locations across the region. Model consensus indicates that this snowfall will gradually diminish from north to south throughout the day as the main trough axis slides through Montana.
A few flurries out there under high pressure with GOES R nighttime microphysics imagery showing streamers off of some of the regions larger lakes which may locally enhance the flurries to steady light snow with little to no accumulation expected. A weak upper level short wave will slide through this afternoon and may increase the likelihood of PoPs, but it will be difficult to overcome the regional high pressure dome, so not too concerned about this. Zonal flow and high pressure continues through Tuesday. Relatively quiet and dry conditions will continue overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.
1113 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure in the forecast area will weaken today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Models continue to trend drier with the low/mid level isentropic lift ahead of the approaching upper wave. Overnight low temperatures should once again drop into the low single digits north.
958 AM PST Mon Nov 6 2017 Snow showers will decrease across north Idaho with drier weather arriving overnight into Tuesday with high pressure aloft.
Cool and breezy conditions will persist through Tuesday as Pacific moisture and a cold front move toward the area. Large scale lift associated with the trough will interact with a batch of moisture from over the Pacific for a good chance of showers late tonight into Tuesday. Rainfall will generally be confined to the higher terrain across the northern third of the state.
Some mvfr ceilings hanging around the Great Valley this afternoon, but with the loss of the higher alto cu deck associated with the morning short wave impulse, there are some breaks in the overcast. Flight conditions may gradually descend later tonight as the low levels become saturated again.
105 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 A strong cold front will approach the area from the west late today, then pass slowly through the region late tonight and Tuesday where it will stall just south of the area. Several areas of low pressure will move east along the stalled boundary mid to late week producing cool unsettled weather conditions across Eastern North Carolina. High pressure is forecast to build over the area from the north over the weekend, but a weak trough of low pressure offshore could produce some light rain along the coast. Well above climo heights/thicknesses today with vals around 1390M supportive of warmer MAV/ECM MOS vals of low 80s for many locations across E NC. A cooler and wetter weather regime is expected across Eastern NC for much of this week.
A long wave upper trough will drop southeastward today and extend from eastern Ontario southwestward through northern North Dakota through central Montana and central Idaho by late this afternoon. A cold front will also move into Sheridan and northwest Cherry county late this afternoon. As the upper trough to our northwest moves into the region, by late afternoon, a slight chance for light rain in the eastern panhandle, with even a slight chance for light snow over northern Sheridan county. For tonight, the upper trough will advance into central Minnesota, central South Dakota and northern Wyoming. North winds behind the cold front will range from 10 to 20 mph this evening, diminish to around 10 mph after midnight.
Temperatures were in the lower 20s to lower 30s. This snow is within the zonal flow and ahead of h5 trough that is pushing into the Rockies. There is a renewed push of the cold air with the h85 front and highs Tuesday should range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s. With the cold high pressure over the region late Tuesday night.
After morning lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s, highs are expected to reach the lower-mid 80s across our area.
238 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 A rather strong high pressure continues to push into the region but the low pressure center and associated frontal system to the south simply refuses to push further to the south and is stalled in Southern OK and Northern TX. The high pressure center continues to build into the parts of Eastern CO providing north and northeast flow across the region and with mid level moisture streaming in from the Southwest creates a strong over running situation over the CWA.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a flattened ridge across the southern part of the country with nearly westerly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the northern Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south to southwest. The upper level ridge will remain essentially in place for the next 24 hours and then a trough will move into the Central Plains. Tuesday night a cold front will drop down from North Texas through our CWA.
Showers today will refocus over the mountains of southwest Idaho and east-central Oregon as upper trough shifts eastward. Scattered snow showers associated with an upper trough will continue today, mainly over the higher terrain. Skies will clear tonight as the trough moves to our east and high pressure builds in from the west. The high pressure ridge will move into the area on Tuesday for continued clear skies, light winds, and high temperatures near 10 degrees below normal.
At the sfc, a cold front is located from the southern plains east northeast acrs the lower MS valley, or roughly from central TX into southern AR/northern MS.
148 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Drier and cooler weather will prevail today as a cold front crosses the region. The cold front has all but cleared our eastern periphery and temperatures will fall in its wake. Northwest flow in the low-levels will keep low stratus in for most, but some scattering and mixing will lead to breaks by early afternoon. Some downlake stratocu is expected to stay just north of I-80 before the low-level flow shifts northeasterly. Given that upstream dewpoint temperatures are in the low to mid 30s, areas that clear out should efficiently drop under calming winds. The fly in the ointment for the low temperature forecast tonight is that another wave will approach early tomorrow morning, bringing clouds and eventual rain back to the area.
109 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Clouds and much colder temperatures can be expected today in the wake of a cold front. Mostly cloudy to cloud skies can be expected today in the post frontal airmass in the wake of a cold front. Thereafter, high pressure will build in with dry and cool conditions. There will be a reenforcement of the cooler air late in the week which will drop high to 10 degrees below normal. The high pressure system will move off to the east over the weekend.
For now, kept them on the low end of MVFR but IFR can't be ruled out especially at airports near and east of I-35. Temperatures will probably be cooler than earlier forecasts so we brought them down slightly.
1233 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Aviation Colder than normal temperatures will prevail all this week as high pressure from Canada dominates our weather.
343 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 A weak cold front that moved into the Big Country has been eroded northward today as low clouds cleared and allowed for good heating to occur. Farther south, record temperatures in the low 90s have been recorded. Temperatures ranged from the lower 60s in northern Haskell County to the lower 70s along the I-20 corridor, into the 80s for the rest of the area. With moist southerly flow ahead of the cold front tonight, expect another warm, muggy night for most of the area. Low clouds may develop once again overnight in the moist environment either side of the cold front. Areas north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line are expected to see the cold front move through by Noon, affecting high temperatures.
201 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 The pattern aloft featured zonal flow across much of the interior United States, however upstream a trough of low pressure extended from Alberta southwest into Oregon. This trough will make its was east across the northern Rockies today, with a cold front pushing south across the Central Plains tonight.
East-west oriented trough continues to slowly dig southward through eastern Idaho. This high-amplitude short wave came out of central Canada, so there is not a lot of moisture with it, but both the NAM and the GFS now indicate that the low, as it cuts off on Tue morning, does not "go dry" (no precipitation at all with the low) now; there is some moisture expected to continue in the cold air behind the low. This will keep temperatures warmer with cloud cover. Could see some breezy conditions with the approach of this next storm, which is coming in from the Pacific, so it is warmer and wetter.
The energy off the southern California coast isn't really engaging as quickly with the higher latitude trough support as expected this morning. Once this system passes through late Tuesday ridging will take hold of our weather and continue into the weekend.
Cool and breezy conditions will persist through Tuesday as Pacific moisture and a cold front move toward the area. A trough and cold front approaching from the northwest will provide enough large scale lift for a good chance of showers tonight into Tuesday over higher terrain in the northern third of the state.