Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1247 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday with a passing trough. Isolated early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon may once again evolve as the upper-level trough lingers over western PA. However, by late evening showers and storms will have trouble sustaining deep updrafts as a ridge builds to the west and warm air aloft advances. High pressure will continue to build over the region through mid-Monday before yet another trough approaches Monday night. Strengthening southerly flow in advance of the next trough will support temperatures above seasonal averages, with values potentially exceeding 90 across much of the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then increase late Monday night/Tue morning as the next trough lifts across the Great Lakes.
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Mid level trof seems to be a bit quicker to move in from the west as opposed to this time yesterday. Storm chances then ramp up over much of the rest of the forecast area tonight into Monday as the aforementioned H50 trof moves into the region. There could be enough low to mid level shear to support organized convection with this trof, but the diurnal timing, much of it being at night and Monday morning, lack of instability may preclude the overall severe storm threat.
The upper pattern during the short-term period will be influenced by a weak ridging pattern. Highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with the warmer start to the day and ground conditions slightly drier.
335 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Isolated showers and storms are possible today as a trough exits east. Isolated early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon may once again evolve as the upper-level trough exits western PA. By late evening showers and storms will have trouble sustaining deep updrafts as a ridge builds to the west and warm air aloft advances. High pressure will continue to build over the region through mid-Monday.
150 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through mid week. Dry weather is expected overnight with a weak mid/upper level trough shifting to the east of the area, along with diurnal stabilization taking hold with the aforementioned loss of daytime heating. Mid-level ridging will take over Monday, with rising low-level thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures. Highs should be a few degrees warmer relative to today, generally lower 90s.
An upper level ridge builds over the area today as a trough moves off to the east. This will allow for warmer high temperatures this afternoon. An upper level ridge moves across the area Sunday night and Monday, providing mainly dry weather, with nothing more than the isolated afternoon thunderstorm over the higher mountainous terrain, and west of the Ohio River.
142 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 With the ridge axis situated overhead, fairly light and variable flow is expected.
The lower clouds across the north will linger through the early morning, but expecting VFR conditions to return in the mid morning as the atmosphere begins to mix some drier air down to the surface. Temperatures will remain near climate normals with lows in the mid 70s inland to lower 80s along the coast and highs in the lower to mid 90s on Sunday.
We'll trend warmer today as mid-level ridging begins to build across the Mid South.
The weather may not be as tranquil for the rest of the weekend as an upper trough will move into the area Sunday afternoon. The upper trough will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through Monday morning. Once the upper trough moves east, an upper ridge will begin to build into the area.
345 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through mid to late week. In the low-levels, southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will become the prominent weather influencer over the SE US, marking the return to typical summer time conditions as dewpoints area-wide return to the 70s and afternoon highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
310 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through mid to late week. In the low-levels, southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will become the prominent weather influencer over the SE US, marking the return to typical summer time conditions as dewpoints area-wide return to the 70s and afternoon highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Upper level ridging will slowly build over the eastern US and into the Western Atlantic. Some remaining subsidence from the upper ridge will likely limit storm intensity and coverage during the afternoon. By Monday, the upper ridge will continue to shift eastward as better moisture continues to surge inland. With the higher coverage and the weaker synoptic subsidence from the upper ridge, a few stronger storms could be possible with microbursts being the primary threat. Temperatures will also float around normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
An upper ridge currently sitting over the northern Rockies will get flattened and shift east today as an anonymously deep upper trough moves into northern Idaho. The upper trough moves across northwest Montana this evening and this will drive a cold front through. Hot temperatures, low humidity, gusty winds and strong cold front, justifies the Red Flag Warning in place. TWH Upper level ridging will build over the PacNW Monday, leaving southeastern Montana in northwest flow.
However, with an upper trough moving through in the mean flow during the day, along with remnant surface boundaries and diurnal heating, can't rule out isolated/widely scattered showers/storms, particularly during the 15-00Z time frame. Tonight Through Monday Weak upper level high pressure is over Arkansas this afternoon. An upper trough will move out of the Plains Sunday and through Arkansas. The next upper ridge will move into Arkansas Monday. With the approaching upper trough, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon and into the evening. High pressure will build over the state from west to east Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight and Sunday night will be in the lower to mid 70s.
/issued 946 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Gulf, with light south to southeast winds across the region. Definitely higher dewpoints this evening, averaging in the mid to upper 70s, with temperatures in the lower 80s. Forecast has this highlighted well. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s for the highs and the mid to upper 70s for the lows.
100 AM PDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Near to slightly above average temperatures the rest of this weekend with weak ridging in place.
Will enjoy another mostly dry day today, as the upper trough axis is now well to our east and with an upper ridge axis sliding over the area. Better moisture will return to the area this evening, as an upper low pushes a frontal boundary east through the area. This upper low will result in active weather across the Great Lakes and OH River regions, but expect thunderstorms to be more isolated to scattered in nature here.
with gusts in the low to mid 30 mph range. Winds increase Monday as an upper low tracks across Montana and associated surface front begins to move into northern Wyoming. Looks like we are going to see critical fire weather conditions for the lower elevations of southwest Carbon County and most of Albany County with late morning through afternoon wind gusts to 35 mph.
Hot and humid conditions are expected today and again on Monday as mid-level ridging and onshore flow at the surface persists. For tonight, warm and humid conditions are expected, with lows in the upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast.
Broad upper ridging on Monday will keep us warm, although temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to Sunday. Instability will be minimal Monday afternoon so storms are most likely to develop across the higher terrain out west.
This afternoon a midlevel trough was located from the western Dakotas into northeast Colorado at 1930Z. The mid level trough will gradually move east tonight increasing forcing for ascent across the Central Plains. The trough axis moves slowly across eastern Kansas later tonight and Sunday exiting in the afternoon. Little relief from the heat will be noted on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s common. Thermal axis extends into the central Plains on Monday with weak mid level ridging through the day.
/Today through Monday/ Upper level ridging will continue to build into the region today. The trend over the past few days has been an increase in a few degrees each day, so following that trend today, we should see afternoon temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s with a few upper 90s scattered here and there. We will be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria by this afternoon as heat indices reach into the lower 100s across portions of the area. Rinse and repeat setup is expected for Monday with perhaps some slightly warmer temperatures than today and a slightly higher chance of needing some sort of heat headline.
No real good news at this point with poor air quality likely to persist as high pressure over the Great Basin continues to guide the dense smoke across the Great Basin and then driving it southeast across Eastern Utah and Colorado. The good news about the smoke is that it's helped to knock temps down a few more degrees off the already cooler forecast temps for today. A closed low will move east across the Northern Rockies Monday, increasing the pressure gradient over much of the Intermountain West. High pressure will build into the Great Basin following the passage of the closed low, keeping the region under clear skies and generally dry conditions. High pressure centered over the Great Basin will continue to sweep widespread smoke from Western Wildfires across the region with significantly reduced visibility at times.
Daily high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s, with maximum afternoon heat index values ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.
Weak upper-level ridging will give way to a more zonal flow as a weak upper-level trough passes through the Central Plains on Sunday afternoon/Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure is expected to remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
Activity is also probably being supported by lift associated with vort max within base of broad trough, seen on WV imagery over SW portions of CWA. Firstly, high-res CAMs suggest development along the weak cold front setting along our western periphery. Additional chances for thunderstorms arrive Monday evening as an upper low moves over the northern Plains and a surface cold front is pushed into the area.
348 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Upper ridging centered over the Rockies and the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure over about the eastern third of the country and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Showers/storms were noted out in the Plains near the interaction of a frontal boundary and upper level trough. The center of an upper level ridge was located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Today and tonight, the aforementioned upper trough will move up around the periphery of the ridge. Temperatures today will top out in the 90s in most areas, though cirrus blowoff from storms in the Plains, as well as any convection occurring today could keep readings slightly cooler than forecasted. With the trough shifting northeastward tonight, any lingering precip should come to an end during the evening. By Monday, the upper ridge will build in, and this should shunt any appreciable deep layer moisture away.
The upper trough responsible for the convection today is moving east with showers/storms already dissipated with sky clearing. Surface ridging over the area will produce calm winds.
Latest satellite imagery showed clouds advancing from the northwest as upper low/trough moves inland tonight and Sunday.
Some of the valley and typically cooler spots had dropped into the lower-mid 60s.
Upper ridging will slide into the area today which will suppress PoPs and allow most areas west of the plateau to touch 90 degrees this afternoon.
Cloud cover continues to clear out behind this system with smoke still blocking out the blue of the sky over most of the area. Conditions dry out for the day Sunday with hot temperatures returning and highs reaching the low to mid 90s for most of the forecast area. Another trough begins to enter the area Sunday night with the best precipitation chances during the day Monday, especially for the northern third of North Dakota.
Latest satellite imagery showed clouds advancing from the northwest as upper low/trough moves inland tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile a low pressure system will tighten pressure gradients Sunday and taf sites kykm.
These two areas of low pressure are forecast to work northeast toward the Great Lakes region over the next 12 to 24 hours, and would likely be the lift aloft that aides thunderstorm development across the far eastern CWA (on/near the surface warm front) by early this evening. And, large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall along and east of a line from Mobridge to Miller are all the primary threats with any strong to severe storms there. At the surface, a cold front will be moving east across the area during the day Monday.
Upper level ridging will bring west to northwest flow to the area as well as slightly drier air. On Monday, southerly flow returns as a weak trough or remnant of a cold front that is currently in the Plains approaches from the west before washing out as it approaches the ridge in place. With the increased southerly flow, despite the ridging in place, the moisture content is forecast to increase. There are still some timing issues that need to be resolved and how far east the weakening front/trough will make it before stalling out. Hopefully the next few runs will provide better guidance and best placement of the higher coverage. Temperatures will be in the low 90s each day.
/Issued 936 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ 500mb analysis shows a longwave trough stretching from the eastern Great Lakes through the Middle Atlantic to the Gulf Coast. /Issued 340 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ An upper longwave trough was crossing the state this afternoon. The trough should continue to push eastward during the night with ridging taking place across the area on Sunday and Sunday night. Max temperatures on Sunday should be a bit warmer than today with the ridge building over us. Could see a more amplified upper-level pattern at the end of the period as GFS and ECMWF ensemble members develop a stout ridge over the West while an upper trough extends southward across the eastern U.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry forecast continues today, under upper ridging. Gusty south winds will continue with a lee trough to the west. Temperatures at night will be mild, in the lower to mid 70s.
326 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 As advertised, the mid-level trough has progressed into the Plains this morning with non-severe showers and thunderstorms continuing across the forecast area ahead of this feature. The trough continues its slow trek eastward through the rest of the day, not making it east of the CWA until late this evening. Brief ridging builds in for Monday with a thermal ridge extending across the Plains.
The ridge of high pressure over the area is weakening, with the high reconsolidating over New Mexico and west Texas over the next 24 hours. In addition, an inverted trough with a strong mid level impulse currently over southern Chihuahua will rotate up from the southeast as the high pressure shifting back east of the area re-establishes a typical flow pattern with a strong southerly component.
Heat indices well over 100 are forecast Monday, ahead of a cold front settling into the region.
357 AM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Temperatures turn cooler today as a cold front passes through the region. There will be a lot of changes in the weather today through tomorrow as a strong cold front moves through the region. As of early this morning, the front has reached Lethbridge, and is expected to move quickly through North-central Montana by mid- to late-morning. A potent closed upper level low is driving this system. Some of the thunderstorms that develop over central Montana in the warmer, more unstable air before the surface front passes will have the potential to generate strong and erratic wind gusts. Short-term ensemble forecasts highlight the areas in central Montana from around Helena to Lewistown as having the higher potential for realizing thunderstorm wind gusts.
As advertised, the mid-level trough has progressed into the Plains this morning with non-severe showers and thunderstorms continuing across the forecast area ahead of this feature. The trough continues its slow trek eastward through the rest of the day, not making it east of the CWA until late this evening. Brief ridging builds in for Monday with a thermal ridge extending across the Plains.
545 AM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure extending from the Gulf Coast to the Desert Southwest will continue to hold subtropical moisture at bay in the near term.
A low pressure area will move through the Pacific Northwest has shifted the winds and is bringing us a stronger Delta Breeze.
MLCape using the lowest 50mb is over 3000 J/kg, with decent lapse rates in the lowest 300 mb of the troposphere, and almost no convective inhibition. Light to Gentle southeast breezes can be expected over all Florida Keys coastal waters trough this evening.
Mid level trof seems to be a bit quicker to move in from the west as opposed to this time yesterday. Storm chances then ramp up over much of the rest of the forecast area tonight into Monday as the aforementioned H50 trof moves into the region. There could be enough low to mid level shear to support organized convection with this trof, but the diurnal timing, much of it being at night and Monday morning, lack of instability may preclude the overall severe storm threat.
And, areas of rain associated with the low pressure system spinning over the border of Minnesota and South Dakota are rapidly shrinking in areal coverage. Increasing southerly winds and warm air advection are expected ahead of the next low pressure system Monday afternoon. Cooler air will sweep in on Monday after a strong frontal boundary moves through, with more seasonal temps and mostly dry conditions to continue all week. The west CONUS ridge will slowly shift east by the weekend.
Surface ridging will keep winds light. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 71 91 73 91 / 10 0 30 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 70 91 72 92 / 10 0 20 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 69 91 70 90 / 10 0 30 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 90 68 90 / 10 0 20 20 50.
717 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Isolated showers and storms are possible today as a trough of low pressure exits east.
/issued 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure is expected to remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
Otherwise, a sunny to partly cloudy, dry day is in store across the TN Valley now that the lingering midlevel trough axis has moved out. Better moisture will return to the area this evening, as an upper low pushes a frontal boundary east through the area. This upper low will result in active weather across the Great Lakes and OH River regions, but expect thunderstorms to be more isolated to scattered in nature here.
Smoke should take a little edge off the heat, but we're still looking at highs pushing into the lower to mid 90s across the plains. The airmass will be quite dry with the upper level ridging building in and current water vapor/precipitable water trends. We expect just a few high based cumulus in/near the higher terrain this afternoon. An upper level trough will slide east across the northern Rockies during the day Monday, with weak westerly flow aloft across most of Colorado. The trough passage will also send a cold front into Colorado sometime late tomorrow evening which could provide a little relief overnight. High temperatures will largely be related to the total smoke concentration and the timing of the cold front across the state.
This morning, a weak upper low was exiting the southeast corner of North Dakota, taking the remains of yesterday's precipitation with it. Elsewhere, a potent closed low aloft is developing over the Pacific Northwest, with downstream ridging across the Northern Plains today bringing a short-lived return to hot temperatures. A secondary low is expected to move into this same area, with the cold front moving into northern North Dakota this evening, bringing chances for showers and non-severe thunderstorms.
Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s inland, and around 90 degrees along the coast, with peak heat indices of 100 to 105. The highest coverage of storms today will focus across the rural interior, especially south of MCO/ISM, and west of the east coast terminals.
510 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Skies are mostly clear early this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
636 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry forecast continues today, under upper ridging. Gusty south winds will continue with a lee trough to the west. Temperatures at night will be mild, in the lower to mid 70s.
It is likely that scattered elevated convection will continue across northeast Oklahoma and perhaps even into far northwest Arkansas until the low level jet subsides later this morning.
645 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through mid to late week. In the low-levels, southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will become the prominent weather influencer over the SE US, marking the return to typical summer time conditions as dewpoints area-wide return to the 70s and afternoon highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
CAMs are in good agreement that convection will re-fire over southeast IA/northeast MO this afternoon as the trof pushes east. Hot and humid weather persists with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and lows in the lower 70s tonight, with low 70s dewpoints common.
Strong warm/moist advection is occurring in advance of and in response to the upper trough, and is forcing a broken band of convection from eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri down across northeast and into central Oklahoma. It is likely that scattered elevated convection will continue across northeast Oklahoma and perhaps even into far northwest Arkansas until the low level jet subsides later this morning.
447 AM MDT Sun Aug 8 2021 High pressure extending from the Gulf Coast to the Desert Southwest will continue to hold subtropical moisture at bay in the near term.
912 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through mid to late week. In the low-levels, southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will become the prominent weather influencer over the SE US, marking the return to typical summer time conditions as dewpoints area-wide return to the 70s and afternoon highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Southerly flow from the offshore Bermuda high pressure system will dominate the weather pattern from Monday through midweek. Weak high pressure over the Appalachians has kept the area quiet, though there are a few isolated showers/storms have formed over western NC with daytime heating. Generally clear skies and light winds tonight should allow temperatures to lower to the upper 60s to around 70, with some middle 60s in the cooler spots. Mid-level ridging will take over Monday, with rising low-level thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures. Highs should be a few degrees warmer relative to today, generally lower 90s.
Presently, an upper level low is positioned over the northern Rockies. This upper low will progress eastward through the remainder of today and tonight.