Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Though we have lost most of the moisture through the column, we continue with some lofting snow and shear driven circulations over the area behind the cold front. The winds will lessen tonight as the ridge builds east, but will increase again toward morning once the ridge axis moves well into Illinois.
High pressure builds over the weekend, although Arizona remains on the eastern side.
The best potential for strong wind gusts of 58+ mph will be west of a Roundup to Columbus line and have expanded the High Wind Warning to account for these areas. This seems a bit overdone for the lower elevations given the impressive downslope winds, but makes sense for upslope oriented foothills and mountain locations. For now will keep the NBM chances in place but may need to trim off the lower elevations if downslope winds continue to look dominant.
Some freezing fog across the aforementioned locations is also possible, but will defer to the evening shift. Temperatures through the weekend will be a little slower to moderate with snow cover, especially across NE OK/NW AR where the higher amounts fell.
230 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 GOES Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a potent mid- level trough passing across the area with pronounced darkening/drying evident across southern MN into central IA. The band of light snow associated with the trough will continue to shift east of the area by late afternoon with accumulations a few tenths of an inch possible.
243 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 High pressure and light gradient winds, combined with an arctic air mass across the Great Lakes have allowed for numerous circulations across Lake Superior today. Most locations will tap into the low to mid teens today.
231 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Colder air arrives behind a departing cold front tonight and tomorrow, bringing an end to widespread rain.
We may see a few flurries as the front passes through this evening but the high pressure area just west of the region is just too strong for this weak front to produce anything more than trace amounts. High pressure reestablishes itself for Saturday.
Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will struggle to rise much above freezing due to the widespread snow cover.
Light snow and flurries will continue off and on this afternoon and evening mainly in the higher elevations of SW Virginia and Eastern Tennessee Mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected outside of the higher mountain peaks. With limited moisture, little to no accumulation is expected outside of the higher mountain peaks. The highest mountain peaks may see 0. Lows will be in the lower 20s for most of the Tennessee Valley and upper teens elsewhere. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley. Thermal trough moves across our region on Saturday. This means Saturday night lows will be 5 to 8 degrees below normal with lows in the low to mid 20s for most areas.
109 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 The cold front is almost through the CWA. Canadian high pressure will then build southeast into the region late Friday and Saturday. Headlines have expired for most of central PA with the exception of the Lower Susq River Valley, where Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 3pm for patchy freezing rain. Temps will remain nearly steady for most this afternoon, although additional cooling of a few degrees is likely over the Lower Susq as they drop to the lower to middle 30s. Any snow after dark will be SHSN very close to LE and in the highest elevs of Somerset & Cambria Cos. Surface ridging and low pwats will combine to keep PoPs near zero through most of the forecast period.
Upstream obs show gusts of 25-30mph across central Iowa and some of this higher momentum air will spill into central Illinois this evening. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching cold front, gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday night.
The large ridge over the western north Atlantic will further yield to the deep, slowly-progressing wintertime trough through the easter U. The lighter winds tonight should back out of the northeast, and perhaps increase a bit Saturday night as the continental ridge exerts a stronger influence. The elevated dewpoints may take advantage of the coolest waters of the west Florida shelf north of the Lower Keys late tonight, although without a discernable trough feature to maximize near-surface moisture convergence, sea fog and stratus development may be more patchy in coverage. Still, there is the possibility for a brief fog and/or low stratus episode drifting south and southwest near or over the Lower Keys by sunrise.
It is currently snowing near a cold front that is moving east across much of Wisconsin.
Scattered snow showers are expected tonight with cold NW flow and a crossing upper trough. The snow should gradually taper off late tonight/erly Saturday as the trough axis shifts east of the area.
Our forecast area remains on the eastern side of an upper- level trough, and southwesterly flow over the cold surface air has maintained a layer of low stratus clouds. After a chilly day Saturday, clear skies and light wind in the dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall well into the lower to middle 20s for most locations. Periods of light snow flurries could occur where temperatures are below freezing, and light rain could occur near KHBG where temperatures are above freezing.
This snow appears to be supported by positive vorticity advection ahead of an approaching upper trough. After the light snow exits later this eve, scattered snow showers are expected with cold NW flow and the continued approach of the upper trough. The snow should gradually taper off late tonight/erly Saturday as the trough axis shifts east of the area.
642 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 A cold front will move offshore tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Aloft the upper level trof has been moving off to the east and we are in northwest flow. At the sfc winds will be more south and southwesterly which will help advect in warmer air and give us highs in the 50s tomorrow. With these warmer temperatures and drier air, there is the possibility for some near critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon. However, winds will be the mitigating factor here as another front is expected to move into the area and then stall, which could make for lighter winds during the afternoon hours (which is when RH would be the lowest).
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1039 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains. These cold temperatures as high pressure continues to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley will result in low temperatures in the teens across much of the Mid-South and perhaps some lower 20s across the southernmost portion of North Mississippi.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 40 27 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 36 24 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 22 37 24 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 33 21 47 24 / 20 0 0 0 0.
Warmer air is now moving into the northeastern portion of the CWA, though temperatures remain below freezing over much of Blaine County and the eastern portions of Fergus County. The cold ground over these areas will become a concern later this afternoon and evening as an approaching trough brings the chance for spotty light precipitation. The High Wind Warnings for all of North Central MT was left as is, with the strongest winds likely to occur tonight into early Saturday morning. The aforementioned trough will also bring light snow along the Continental Divide and the central mountains, mainly affecting Marias Pass and Kings Hill pass.
Despite the warmer wind, wind chills early Saturday could fall to 5 below to 5 above. After the cold start to the day, readings will warm into the lower 30s across south central Missouri to the upper 30s across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri by Satruday afternoon.
Quiet and cool (though warmer than yesterday) across the region this afternoon behind a cold front that had made it into northern KS/MO as of 3 PM. Temperatures ranged from the lower 20s in northeast NE and western IA to the lower and mid 30s in southeast NE and far southwest IA, with northwest winds gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range. By early Saturday morning, expect a tightening pressure gradient over the area with southerly to southwesterly winds picking up and ushering in much warmer air. Temperatures should top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the highest temperatures being west of the Missouri River.
Temperatures have struggled to climb above freezing across most of the area today, as strong northwesterly flow continues to advect a much cooler and drier airmass into the area, and dense low level cloud cover has limited diurnal heating effects. A shallow layer of moisture has resulted in freezing drizzle earlier in the day over portions of north Alabama, and a few flurries have been reported this afternoon, especially in the higher terrain. The main impact tonight will come from cold wind chills, dropping down into the lower teens by morning. Be sure to bundle up if heading outdoors overnight! High pressure will filter in over the Midwest on Saturday, and below normal conditions will remain anchored over the area. Cloud cover will clear by this time, and solar radiation should lead to slightly warmer temperatures during the day tomorrow.
948 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Cool and dry high pressure will push into the area behind the departing cold front tonight, and settle along the East Coast over the weekend.
Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s are in place Saturday using the NBM 75th percentile dataset which is warmer than than the guidance blend.
339 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 As a mid level trof axis completes its trip through the PAH forecast area, clouds will steadily erode away from the northwest today. Highs on Sat will still be below freezing under abundant sunshine, and a late-developing southerly surface flow. Melting of remaining snow/sleet will accelerate on Sun, with highs expected above freezing. Over the latter half of the weekend, southerly flow is forecast to get started ahead of a dry cold frontal passage that should occur Sun night. Dry high pressure air will move in behind this front, and lower heights aloft will be supportive of another cooldown Mon night back into the teens and single digits except possibly around 20. After daybreak Sat, they will become light and variable as high pressure finally moves in.
243 PM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 An upper ridge off the Pacific NW coast will nudge east over this period, pushing the arctic airmass to our east.
The first disturbance will drive a clipper through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Saturday, shunting an attendant N-S oriented warm front through the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley.
The very strung out and positively tilted upper trough will finally make its way over the area and push drier air in. At the surface, the cold front has pushed well offshore at this point as high pressure builds over Texas leading to strengthening northwesterly flow at the surface.
/issued 330 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1039 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains. These cold temperatures as high pressure continues to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley will result in low temperatures in the teens across much of the Mid-South and perhaps some lower 20s across the southernmost portion of North Mississippi.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 40 27 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 36 24 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 22 37 24 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 33 21 47 24 / 20 0 0 0 0.
With the center of the high pressure ridge centered over the Pacific Northwest coast, this will keep Montana and Idaho on the easternmost fringe of the ridge. As a result, the threat for stagnant air and/or impacts from persistent fog are not yet a concern (that is something we see occur moreso when the apex of the ridge is directly or more closely centered over western Montana).
538 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 The main trough hanging over the Middle Mississippi Valley today will continue to push southeast toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's tonight. It's possible that southeast KS sees some patchy freezing fog tonight though confidence isn't high at this times so did not add to the grids.
318 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 Upper ridging builds in tonight ushering in some waa from west to east. Unfortunately, this will be short-lived as a low pressure system sweeps through the Dakotas on Saturday in an upper trough. However, there will be a sharp temperature shift in the northeast as the clipper drags cooler air back into the northeast by afternoon. Forecast max Ts may be a few degrees too high from the James Valley east given timing of the low and some associated cloud cover that will limit any solar contribution. The other forecast challenge with this low will be the potential for some light snow across the ND/SD border and east of the James Valley. Then northwest flow behind the low with caa will lend itself to some continued snow shower activity through Saturday night.
410 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 GOES Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a potent mid- level trough passing across the area with pronounced darkening/drying evident across southern MN into central IA. The band of light snow associated with the trough will continue to shift east of the area by late afternoon with accumulations a few tenths of an inch possible.
Road temperatures as of 2PM are above freezing in the Silver Valley, so late afternoon and early evening wet accumulations will have the potential to freeze after sunset. Further north, road temperatures around Sandpoint, Metaline, and Colville are below freezing with a lower threat of ice.
Model cross sections show development of a stable layer at ridge top with increasing flow upstream overnight. Downslope flow will also keep the foothills slightly warmer overnight. Elevated winds will also push into the Cheyenne Ridge and far eastern plains Saturday afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph. This may result in slightly cooler temperatures than expected, but overall temperatures will be trending warmer in the 40s over the plains, 30s in the foothills, and teens/20s for the mountains.
BMickelson Previous discussion: An upper ridge off the Pacific NW coast will nudge east over this period, pushing the arctic airmass to our east.
918 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will extend across the region this week as a series of low pressure systems develop and remain offshore. Tonight: Mid-evening KCLX Doppler images showed the cold front near the Dorchester/Orangeburg County line, extending SW across Hampton County into SE GA. A wide disorganized band of light showers existed along and ahead of the cold front. Based on the latest HRRR, the cold front is timed to reach the coast around midnight. Temperatures should slowly cool this evening ahead of the front, then steadily cool after midnight in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures are expected to range in the lower 40s inland to the mid 40s along the coast by sunrise Saturday. High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
725 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will extend across the region this week as a series of low pressure systems develop and remain offshore. The cold front is expected to reach the coast around midnight. High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Our forecast area remains on the eastern side of an upper- level trough, and southwesterly flow over the cold surface air has maintained a layer of low stratus clouds. After a chilly day Saturday, clear skies and light wind in the dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall well into the lower to middle 20s for most locations.
710 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Rain showers will continue into tonight as a cold front crosses the region.
Variable cloudiness ahead of an upper trough crossing the Great Lakes will have an effect on temperatures, but overall lows should generally be from the single digits to mid teens by morning. Surface analysis this afternoon reveals an elongated area of low pressure just east of the Appalachians in VA/NC and a trailing cold front stretching into northwest FL. We won't see any sort of precipitation from this clipper as the low level will be too dry to support anything reaching the ground. if we end up being 'clearer' than anticipated, temps will likely be colder than forecast as nearby high pressure will keep winds light overnight. Southern Kentucky may just barely get above the freezing mark. Min temps will be generally cooler than normal.
Upper ridging builds in tonight ushering in some waa from west to east. Unfortunately, this will be short-lived as a low pressure system sweeps through the Dakotas on Saturday in an upper trough. However, there will be a sharp temperature shift in the northeast as the clipper drags cooler air back into the northeast by afternoon. Forecast max Ts may be a few degrees too high from the James Valley east given timing of the low and some associated cloud cover that will limit any solar contribution. The other forecast challenge with this low will be the potential for some light snow across the ND/SD border and east of the James Valley. Then northwest flow behind the low with caa will lend itself to some continued snow shower activity through Saturday night.
852 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 A cold front will move offshore tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.
422 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 High pressure and light gradient winds, combined with an arctic air mass across the Great Lakes have allowed for numerous circulations across Lake Superior today. Most locations will tap into the low to mid teens today.
The west coast breeze is dominant and will push off the east coast, veering sfc winds out of the W/SW ahead of a cold front. Temps will remain in the low and mid 60s Orlando southward but turning noticeably cooler behind the front Sat. Cloud cover and cool advection will bring noticeably cooler temperatures, with highs only reaching the low 60s across the north to the low 70s across and inland from the Treasure Coast. VFR conditions through 05Z or so then IFR CIGs will spread southward assocd with a cold front beginning with LEE/DAB then spreading southward into Saturday morning. A weak cold front across north FL this evening will sag southward and reach the Brevard waters by sunrise then south FL by afternoon.
714 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Periods of light snow remain possible through early Saturday morning before Arctic high pressure builds in. Portions of western IN and west-central OH will observe the coldest wind chills, but increased cloud coverage has trended low temperatures a smidge warmer compared to previous forecasts. Arctic high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley during the day and offers a period of dry conditions with very cold temperatures. High pressure quickly drifts eastward Saturday night, allowing surface winds to shift out of the south.
A few additional dry cold fronts are expected throughout the forecast period.
High pressure will build into the region over the weekend for drier conditions.
High pressure aloft will lead to a return of quiet and dry weather through the weekend and beyond, with an overall warming trend.
So far have yet to see any signs of fog development, but may still see isolated patchy fog or freezing fog through sunrise and will continue to monitor. Plenty of sunshine is expected today which will continue a slow warming trend, with highs today 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Our coolest highs will be across central Oklahoma where snowpack is deepest, but sunshine and temperatures climbing above freezing will continue to put a dent in the snow cover through the day.
A few areas in southern Kentucky could see the low 30s. Tonight, high pressure with a strong inversion will keep winds light and skies clear, making way for another cool night with temperatures in the teens to low 20s. Temperatures will run on the cool side of normal, with an especially cold start on Sunday thanks to sfc ridging lingering behind the departing 1036mb high.
1243 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 A cold front will move offshore tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.
1026 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 (This evening through Saturday) High pressure is filling nicely this afternoon across west Texas while clear skies are prevailing on the backside of the upper trough that brought us our week of wintry weather. Tomorrow, southwesterly return flow at the surface will help to bring slightly warmer high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. However, locations that still have some snow cover will see cooler temperatures in the low 40s.
1258 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will extend across the region this week as a series of low pressure systems develop and remain offshore. High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Tonight Through Sunday The mid and upper-level trough axis is moving Eward across the state today, above low-level ridging/high pressure shifting SEward into the state. High pressure with mostly clear and dry conditions will persist through the weekend.
For tonight, another widespread freeze is expected with lows in the lower 20s to near 30 across the area. Soundings do show better potential for freezing fog well north of our CWA. Mostly clear skies will continue on Sunday with highs a bit warmer, in the 50s to near 60 degrees across the region.
Gusty winds will return to the plains this evening as the axis of an upper level trough moves overhead. Warmer air is now moving into the northeastern portion of the CWA, though temperatures remain below freezing over much of Blaine County and the eastern portions of Fergus County. The cold ground over these areas will become a concern later this afternoon and evening as an approaching trough brings the chance for spotty light precipitation. The High Wind Warnings for all of North Central MT was left as is, with the strongest winds likely to occur tonight into early Saturday morning. The aforementioned trough will also bring light snow along the Continental Divide and the central mountains, mainly affecting Marias Pass and Kings Hill pass.
The cold front associated with the passing clipper system is shifting eastward between the terminals, with lake enhancement well underway at KSBN.
300 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Immediately upstream of departing midlevel trough axis, west- northwesterly flow was still moist enough for stratus per nighttime microphysics RGB. Low-amplitude mean ridging will cross the region Saturday, and southwesterly flow will strengthen Sunday ahead of the next upper level trough.
Discussion: Today upper troughing shifts eastward as upper flow flattens out.
The area is between the departing storm and an approaching upper level trough. Midlevel trough axis pivots through the region Saturday along with its associated cold pool with 850 mb temps falling to -15 to -20C. The high should briefly work its way overhead Saturday night, which should lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions. Undercut the lows where snowpack exists, especially where it is deep over the southern Adirondacks. Sunday, the high shifts east with some return flow kicking in, which should lead to a modest warning trend. Dry weather is expected to continue with a cyclone forming over the western Great Lakes which should be too far away to impact our area.
In fact, locations along and north of I-20 did not reach above freezing for highs today, and if they did, it wasn't for long. Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 20s across the north to the mid/upper 20s in the south. Our forecast area remains on the eastern side of an upper- level trough, and southwesterly flow over the cold surface air has maintained a layer of low stratus clouds. After a chilly day Saturday, clear skies and light wind in the dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall well into the lower to middle 20s for most locations.