Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
424 PM MST Thu Nov 25 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE Strong high pressure over central CA will keep dry east and northeast flow aloft over NM through Friday. After mostly starry skies tonight, drier and slightly warmer conditions are expected on Friday.
554 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 Rain with a crossing cold front will transition to snow showers for later tonight and Friday.
The cold front is now just west of the Plateau. Otw, temps down into the low to mid 20s still expected by sunrise. Cold front now pushing into the northwestern portions of the mid state.
Bitterly cold air has been pouring into Iowa today, and as it's advected into Illinois through the day, it's been modified to the lower 30s.
213 PM MST Thu Nov 25 2021 The cold northwest flow pattern will slowly exit the area through Friday as a northeastward-oriented ridge of high pressure pushes into the Great Basin region. As a result, expect seasonably cool temperatures tonight and Friday night under mostly clear skies and slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures on Friday with partly cloudy skies across the north with mostly sunny skies expected across the south.
750 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 A cold front will move across the region overnight.
Dry conditions are expected Friday with afternoon highs only in the lower to middle 30s. A cold front is still pushing through the area with light rain, but should clear east in a few hours. The best chances for rain this evening will be across Michigan, especially as the upper trough axis swings through. Winds are turning northwest behind the front, and will bring in much cooler air tonight. It will then be cold and dry through the afternoon with highs barely above freezing.
947 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 Rain will transition to snow showers late tonight in wake of a cold front. Light (<3 inches) is likely for areas north of I-80 and in the higher terrain.
331 PM PST Thu Nov 25 2021 High pressure will dominate our weather pattern the next several days. This pattern will bring light winds, reduced humidity, and warmer daytime temperatures. Latest model guidance shows the high clouds will increase further overnight. Therefore, overnight lows tonight will be a tad warmer. Otherwise, high pressure will build overhead leading to a slight warming trend through the weekend. Not a strong or even moderate offshore gradient, but enough for warmer conditions with less nighttime fog. KSFO Bridge Approach. Light to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend as high pressure dominates the region.
Positively tilted upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to well SW of Baja has pinched off an upper low over Baja. The northern portions of the trough will continue to strengthen as it moves off the coast of the NE US and completely separates from the Baja upper low. After hanging out over Baja for a day, the upper low will begin to slowly track east across NRN Mexico on Friday and the weakening system will approach W TX late Friday Night. In the low levels, the cool high center behind yesterdays front is in the process of moving across the area. By Fri morning, the high will extend from N/Cen TX to AR as weak lee-side SFC cyclogenesis occurs across the CEN/NRN plains in response to NW/SE oriented jet streak and weak S/WV tracking SE within the NW flow aloft.
Building high pressure overhead will lead to generally tranquil weather over much of the region today, and for the foreseeable future for that matter. Highs this afternoon will generally peak in the low-mid 60s for Valley communities, or within a few degrees of where we should be for late November.
on the eastern fringe of a waxing/waning upper level ridge situated over the southern Pacific Coast and portions of the Intermountain West.
/issued 214 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021/ A cold front is slowly diving eastward towards Monroe County. Behind the cold front cooler air is filtering in with temperatures beginning to fall. Lows tomorrow night will be a tad warmer than tonight.
302 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 (Issued 301 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021) Tonight and Friday: The upper trough axis is across southern WI this afternoon and will push east this evening. There is enough lingering moisture in the low levels for patchy drizzle now that drier air aloft is starting to stream in and remove ice in the clouds.
There is a slight chance of freezing rain along and just east of the Cascades in lower elevation areas (7am- 9am Friday morning), mainly north of Chiloquin to include Highway 97. We don't expect much if any impact from this, partially because most data suggests measurable precipitation staying west of here, and also because any freezing that would occur will be very light.
701 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 The cold front passes east across the region this evening, ushering in much colder air. Weak low pressure moves through the lower Great Lakes this weekend, bringing the next chance for rain and snow. Surface cold front will continue to move east of the region this evening. Even where sunshine is observed, northwest flow keeps daytime highs chilly, in the low to mid 30s.
While ensemble solutions seem to like warmer temperatures, individual model soundings look much snowier, with deep saturated layers and surface temperatures cold enough for snow. The higher terrain of the Cabinet and Swan Ranges should pick up 6 to 12 inches. Travelers on northwest Montana roads should expect a chance for freezing rain causing slick roadways through midday Friday.
204 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Key takeaway over the next 7 days: The weather pattern will remain quiet and dry with warmer than normal temperatures expected.
300 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Discussion/Marine - Light lake effect snow showers tapering off this morning - Lingering light nw flow lake effect snow showers will gradually taper off later today as upper level ridging begins to build in from the west and h8 temps moderate.
Cloudiness will continue to increase this morning ahead of a cold front that will slide north to south across the local area through mid-afternoon, with a low chance (< 20%) of light showers/sprinkles. A light freeze with min temps near 30 deg is expected across inland SE GA under the ridge axis. With the light drainage flow and very dry airmass with dew pts falling into the 20s, frost formation is expected to be more patchy in nature across inland NE FL with some areas of frost under the ridge axis across SE GA.
However, temperatures should rebound quickly today as high pressure shifts south of the area and southerly flow increases.
High clouds have streamed into the area this afternoon and evening ahead of a weak trough to arrive tonight and Friday. Drier conditions are anticipated over the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
1048 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 Currently - A weakening pressure ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and continues to push gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes across the Keys. Little to no lower level lifting has prevented much in the way of persistent westward proliferation of stratocumulus from the warmer Florida Straits to the Keys and adjacent bay and gulf side waters. While radiational cooling may be possible in the most interior and protected locations, the light but persistent breezes should keep overnight lows in the upper 60s for most locations with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. A ridge across Florida will settle further south and weaken further.
1059 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 A cold front will move across the region overnight.
Radar and surface observations shows that the approaching cold front is nearing the I-65 corridor with a band of scattered showers along and ahead of the front.
1105 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 A cold front will move across the region overnight.
Today Early this morning, mid/upper troughing is in place over the region with a surface cold front progressing eastward. Tonight Heading into tonight, mid/upper height rises are expected as troughing will move off to the east.
124 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 High pressure will result in a dry and rather cool day today.
126 AM MST Fri Nov 26 2021 Surface analysis indicates a ridge over the western CONUS with warmer air advecting into the Plains. Dry air will remain in place resulting in near critical fire weather due to low RH values ( less than 15%) over the entire area as the warmer air will create large dewpoint depressions.
Hence, the High Wind Warning appears to be in good shape.
A sfc cold front is crossing the TN Valley this evening and has cleared most of the forecast area save extreme NE portions of AL including portions of DeKalb/Jackson Counties. Rain associated with the cold front is mostly in the eastern half of the area, and some rain lingers immediately behind the cold front as fairly shallow isentropic ascent continues atop the low-lvl frontal sfc. With winds become light Friday night and clear skies expected, good radiational cooling is expected with high pressure overhead. Models trending slightly cooler again today.
Temperatures will likely drop a few more degrees through sunrise before winds turn southerly behind the high pressure. We have trended toward the drier end of model guidance for dewpoints today (10th percentile NBM) as models tend to increase dewpoints too fast in departing high pressure systems. An inspection of model soundings to the southwest of the area (moisture source region) shows dewpoints in the lower 20s at best. Southwest winds will tend to keep the atmosphere more mixed tonight, therefore most areas should be a solid 10-15 degrees warmer than the previous night.
249 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Cold front currently moving through the CWA this morning. High pressure will build in from the west later today and remain in place through the remainder of the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow aloft over the nation's mid-section with ridging to our west and a trough to our east. A ridge axis at the surface will continue to shift east this morning allowing return southerly flow to spread over the area. Continued strong low-level warm air advection should push highs today into the 50s for most areas, with the warmer readings in our southern counties.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery depicts an amplified upper level pattern over the CONUS, with a longwave ridge over the Intermountain West, a longwave trough extending from the northern Great Lakes region south through Dixie Alley, and a cut-off low just off the western coast of Baja, Mexico. At the surface, weak high pressure currently centered over the southern plains will continue to slide southeast throughout the day Friday, allowing 10-15 mph southwest winds in our area to veer to the west, and setting the stage for a fairly significant downslope warming event. Aided by clear skies owing to subsidence ahead of the upper level longwave ridge, temperatures will rise well into the 60s, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
1019 PM MST Thu Nov 25 2021 The cold northwest flow pattern will slowly exit the area through Friday as a northeast-oriented ridge of high pressure pushes into the Great Basin region. As a result, expect seasonably cool temperatures tonight and Friday night under mostly clear skies and slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures on Friday with partly cloudy skies across the north with mostly sunny skies expected across the south.
906 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 A sfc cold front is crossing the TN Valley this evening and has cleared most of the forecast area save extreme NE portions of AL including portions of DeKalb/Jackson Counties. Rain associated with the cold front is mostly in the eastern half of the area, and some rain lingers immediately behind the cold front as fairly shallow isentropic ascent continues atop the low-lvl frontal sfc. With winds become light Friday night and clear skies expected, good radiational cooling is expected with high pressure overhead. Models trending slightly cooler again today.
Kavinsky (Issued 301 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021) Tonight and Friday: The upper trough axis is across southern WI this afternoon and will push east this evening. There is enough lingering moisture in the low levels for patchy drizzle now that drier air aloft is starting to stream in and remove ice in the clouds.
Significant drying and cooling behind the well-defined front will allow temperatures to dip into the 30s F with some places in central and northern areas nearing freezing by dawn. A cold front extends from northeast to southwest across the Delta this afternoon, with showers occuring mainly along and out ahead of it. High pressure and drier/cooler conditions will build in behind the boundary overnight. Lows tonight will range from around 30 degrees in the north to the low 40s in the south.
1255 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Rain will transition to snow showers late tonight in wake of a cold front. Light (<3 inches) is likely for areas north of I-80 and in the higher terrain.
929 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 Surface analysis shows today's cold front exiting the forecast area at this time, with just a few light showers lingering across lower Acadiana and the coastal waters in its wake. Overnight lows should still be able to fall into the low to mid 40s, as northerly winds bring cooler air into the region. North winds are picking up with the cold front passage this evening, sustained in the 10-15 kt range with gusts 22 to 25 kts.
/issued 929 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021/ Surface analysis shows today's cold front exiting the forecast area at this time, with just a few light showers lingering across lower Acadiana and the coastal waters in its wake. Overnight lows should still be able to fall into the low to mid 40s, as northerly winds bring cooler air into the region. North winds are picking up with the cold front passage this evening, sustained in the 10-15 kt range with gusts 22 to 25 kts.
253 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Much colder across the area this morning as moderate CAA continues behind the cold front that moved through yesterday, with current temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
The cold front is now just west of the Plateau. Otw, temps down into the low to mid 20s still expected by sunrise. Cold front now just exiting the cwa.
This will be thanks to a warm front that moves generally west to east across the area, and slows down over far northeastern South Dakota this afternoon. It will shift into Minnesota tonight, as it drags a cold front north to south across much of South Dakota.
Still expect to see temps fall through sunrise reaching a nadir in the low to mid 20s.
300 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 High pressure stretched from eastern Iowa southwestward into the southern High Plains early this morning.
Snowfall is possible in the higher terrain, with the best chances for accumulations above 3,000 feet. Made a few minor tweaks to snowfall totals in response to temperatures running a couple degrees warmer than the previous forecast. but overall minor accumulations are expected except at the very tops of the highest mountains which have a better chance to see closer to an inch of snow. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 29 56 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 26 53 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 44 26 52 34 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 23 48 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 10.
(Today and tonight) A chilly start to our Friday for much of the area this morning, with temperatures currently sitting near or below freezing for just about the entirety of our CWA as light winds and clear skies have allowed for excellent radiational cooling conditions overnight. Clouds will begin to push in from the south by late afternoon into this evening as a closed low ejects eastward out of northern Mexico.
532 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Aviation - Light lake effect snow showers tapering off this morning - Lingering light nw flow lake effect snow showers will gradually taper off later today as upper level ridging begins to build in from the west and h8 temps moderate.
Meanwhile a weak upper level wave will race across the region on Saturday with a cold front sliding southeast later in the day.
Rain ends in the southeast by sunrise this morning and the cooler air will continue to filter in. This should still well ahead of any freezing temperatures in the northwest. Look for warmer temperatures than today with highs in the 50s north to low 60s in the south.
Weak ridging in place over the state this morning will continue to weaken as a cold front approaches and pushes through the state through the day today and tonight. Cooler and drier air moves into the area behind the front as high pressure builds into the area behind it.
High pressure will move into the region and will stick around for a few days. Today expect highs in the 40s and lows tonight to be just a little bit warmer than last night. High pressure builds back into the region.
Zonal flow will persist through early Saturday ahead of weak ridging, generating gusty westerly winds that are expected to continue through Friday.
240 AM MST Fri Nov 26 2021 Upper ridge covers a large portion of the western US at this time.
An incoming mid-level cloud deck may somewhat stunt temperature falls a bit, but not by enough to prevent this morning from becoming the coldest morning this winter thus far for many with low temperatures ranging from around 10 degrees Fahrenheit across the northwestern part of the CWA to the low-mid 20s in northwest Indiana, where lake enhancement has allowed yesterday's stratocumulus deck to hang around a little longer than in other areas. If the low tracks more to our north, then it's entirely possible that much of the area could remain dry on Saturday with much of the forcing necessary for sufficient top-down saturation remaining to our north as well.
High temperatures will be well above normal, up to the 60s across the plains and 30s and 40s in the high country. Expect lows Friday night in the teens in the high country and 20s and 30s on the plains. Persistent downslope flow of 10 to 15 knots has kept temperatures in the lower foothills and much of the urban corridor 5 to 10 F warmer than forecast tonight and a similar situation should occur tomorrow due to the persistent downslope flow, lee troughing, and resulting pressure gradient. So expect warmer lows in the 30s and 40s in these areas. A weak disturbance moving through the ridge will pass just north of Colorado Friday night. As for the details, on Saturday temperatures will be cooler following a weak cold front on Friday night across the plains with stronger low level inversions in place.
Dry and warmer weather conditions are forecast to prevail through the weekend. Overnight temperatures have been 5-15 degrees warmer in the areas with a frost advisory. The high level clouds that has been hindering the longwave cooling should thin out and exit to the southeast. Lower level chances appear minimal as an upper ridge dominates over the area. Dry and warmer weather conditions are forecast today through the weekend for much of the area.
303 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 In wake of the cold front that passed through the Tennessee Valley region earlier this evening, strong cold air advection is occurring, with northerly winds gusting around 15-20 mph. Temperatures will struggle to make it above the low to mid 40s by this afternoon, with apparent temperature values likely remaining in the 30s. We'll be under the influence of high pressure at the surface on Saturday, with continued clear and dry conditions.
552 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 (Today and tonight) A closed upper low currently over the northern Baja region will lift northeast towards the area today, reaching southwest Texas by early Saturday morning. Temperatures will be warmer today, with light southwesterly winds and afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 40s.
1430Z temperatures remained in the low and mid 20s. most of the lower clouds streaming across the far northeast sections of the forecast area should shift east into Ohio. Do also expect that temperatures will begin to trend more above normal late week with more substantial southerly flow as a stronger ridge of high pressure builds across Gulf States. High pressure building into the area will keep quiet weather across the TAF sites this period, although northwest winds through this afternoon will approach 10KT at times.
535 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Ceilings are improving early this morning and northerly surface winds will begin to diminish as high pressure becomes centered over the area. /EC/ Today through tonight: the forecast in the near term is straight- forward with polar high pressure building over the lower MS Valley region today and becoming centered over the forecast area by this evening. After a very cool day with high temperatures as much as 15 degrees below climate normals, expect mostly clear skies and very light wind tonight to allow temperatures to dip well below freezing north of the I-20 corridor. Farther south, thicker cirrus may have some impact on cooling and could keep lows from dropping below freezing.
The area of High Pressure over the SE US which has fostered low-lvl easterly flow over our area the last couple days will shift offshore and weaken today as an area of low pressure moves over the eastern US. This system's cold front will move over Northern/Central Florida during the day today, before beginning to wash out in our vicinity tonight. The frontal passage tonight should be dry as the southern portion of the mid-lvl trough is weak & sheared resulting in negligible mid- lvl height falls/DCVA, and the front will be frontolytic by the time it finally reaches our area. The postfrontal High to our North will quickly be displaced as another low pressure system moves over the eastern US and consequently the initially N-NWrly low-lvl flow will quickly veer more NErly by Saturday afternoon.
The trough will reach the cowboy State late this afternoon toward sunset and quickly exit over the Central Plains by sunrise.
A few degrees warmer this morning versus yesterday and this should prevent frost formation with low temps generally in the low 40's at Valley locations. Upper level ridge will continue over NorCal and strengthen into the holiday weekend. High temperatures will generally range from the low to upper 60's for Valley locations, possibly low 70's over the northern Sacramento Valley(Redding area). Low temperatures ranging from the low 40's to upper 40's are expected.
This will be thanks to a warm front that moves generally west to east across the area, and slows down over far northeastern South Dakota this afternoon. It will shift into Minnesota tonight, as it drags a cold front north to south across much of South Dakota. The pattern continues to feature a persistent western CONUS ridge with northwest flow across the Northern Plains.
This is in response to an approaching cold front currently sweeping southeast across the eastern and southeastern U. The low level ridge, located around 850 mb, is also being shoved further east in response to the approaching upper level trough. Meanwhile, the cold front will continue to march southeast but it will be decaying along the way. PoPs will stay below 10 percent, winds will generally stay 10 mph or less from the north, and temperatures may be a couple degrees cooler than this time tomorrow morning. Overnight a decaying cold front will sweep through, however breezes will generally remain from the north to northeast with no freshening expected. A new ridge will settle in across the southeastern U.
523 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 (Today and tonight) A chilly start to our Friday for much of the area this morning, with temperatures currently sitting near or below freezing for just about the entirety of our CWA as light winds and clear skies have allowed for excellent radiational cooling conditions overnight. Clouds will begin to push in from the south by late afternoon into this evening as a closed low ejects eastward out of northern Mexico.