Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
QUIET WX IN STORE THRU DAY BREAK AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE S IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL TROF PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS TOO FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE PENINSULA. HI PRES RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SAG SWD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PRESSES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
706 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A N UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. LOWS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER 30S IN MANY AREAS. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THRU ERN ND SUN MORNING AND INTO NW/WCNTRL MN SUN MIDDAY-AFTN.
957 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
AT 7 PM THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST. SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT ALMOST TO THE COAST.
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
1148 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID-AFTERNOON SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAD MADE IT TO AROUND INTERSTATE 20. AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT -- WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING -- CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF A COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. AS TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S.
1100 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING.
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 COLD FRONT JUST UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. 00Z MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
757 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THERMAL TROUGH AT H9-H85 WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS TODAY AND PROHIBIT MAX TEMPS FM DIFFERING TOO MUCH FM CURRENT READINGS.
MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT UP TO 700 MB BUT VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THAT LEVEL (~10K FT). LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AND ARE NOW OUT OF THE S/SE AS RIDGE AXIS HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED ACROSS CENT FL AND ADJACENT ATLC.
WINDS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. 00Z MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
1242 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATED FEATURED A DROP OF THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH AS RAIN AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD AS SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY ACROSS OHIO WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION UNDER THE CROSSING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE LOW FORECAST INVERSION LEVELS. THAT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY AS IT DIGS EASTWARD. NONE OF THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND WILL BE SUPPRESSED VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INDUCE SPOTTY LIGHTS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH INTO LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. WILL KEEP POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK ASCENT PERSISTS IN THE SATURATED AIRMASS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT STILL BACK TO OUR NW AND WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 50 73 42 / 60 30 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 43 65 36 / 70 50 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 43 68 39 / 70 50 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 42 60 34 / 80 50 0 0.
/ISSUED 458 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THIS MORNING AS IT ENTERS OUR FAR NWRN COUNTIES WITH WIND SHIFT THE BEST INDICATOR ATTM.
757 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL SCOUR OUT THROUGH MIDDAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUN. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS IF FRONT STALLS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MINIMUMS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GFDI VALUES IN THE HIGH CATEGORY TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AOA 10-12K MSL. 06Z NAM/00Z ECMWF KEEP THE COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY.
BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
1001 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
1000 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM UP NICELY. AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S WILL STILL BE ATTAINABLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCT BY 20Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY 06Z.
A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TODAYS HIGHS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A TOUCH COOLER WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT MORNING CLOUD COVER COULD STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
931 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
1253 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL SCOUR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOW OVER ARKANSAS WITH A WEDGE STILL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WE'LL FINALLY SEE THE DREARY WEATHER COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
701 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT CLEARING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THE HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING AS THE FOG BURNS OFF. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO CLEAR THE STATE AROUND SUNRISE. AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DRYING AND SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/COLD POOL (850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -7 C) DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY. BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE LOWERING INVERSION.
1145 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL SCOUR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
757 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENTS ALONG THE FRONT TEMPORARILY WEAKEN, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THE SPECIFICS OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
917 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATED WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS AS RAIN CONTINUED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER WESTERN OHIO. COOLER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND RIDGES IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EASTERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BENIGN WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW WILL CONJOIN WITH ANOTHER IN VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS INFRINGING THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING.
712 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
624 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015 07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. A cold front currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly improving visibilities. Despite FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only slightly cooler. High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 60s.
EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND OF ARKANSAS UPPER LOW SHEARING OUT AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MS BY LATE TONIGHT. /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ A SPLIT FLOW BLOCKING UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WERE CUTOFF WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGHING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL HELP TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM MID-MARCH WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. SOME COOLING WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SOME OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WERE PEALING OFF AND DRIFTING SE ACROSS CA AROUND THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE STATE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION LATE MON AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAX TEMPS FORECAST FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
1020 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015 A weak cold front has pushed across Illinois with N winds 10-15 mph bringing a drying trend through central Illinois this morning. High temperatures today should reach around 60 or slightly warmer. 07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. A cold front currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly improving visibilities. Despite FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only slightly cooler. High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 60s.
For tonight, a cold front will approach from the northwest, forcing widespread showers and thunderstorms.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT MOST AIRPORTS BY 06Z AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD FROM THE NRN GULF COAST. FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NWRN MEXICO. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY AS IT LIFTS NWD. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY OPENS AND TRACKS ENEWD.
THESE WERE 15-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY BOISE WESTWARD AND ONLY FAIRFIELD /DUE TO WIND/ WAS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WARMING AROUND 20 DEGREES FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED ON THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE UPPER FLOW ARE CURRENTLY IN PHASE AND WILL COMBINE TO SWEEP AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
1133 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING. WITH AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
801 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015 FAIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/ THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT IS SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AND LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LA/NORTHERN GULF AND RADAR DEPICTS AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. UPPER AIR PATTERN STILL DEPICTS A STRONG SOUTHERN JET WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND A POTENT TROUGH LOCATED OVER BAJA. STILL IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS TODAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES AND THE FRNTL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER RAINS ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS A FRNTL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND THROUGH THE STATE BY 00Z. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS WITH 59 NORTHWEST SHERIDAN COUNTY TO THE LOW 70S SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECOUPLING WILL FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 30S FROM VALENTINE TO IMPERIAL AND EAST. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015/ A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SESONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY. MAIN EVENT DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SHEARING OUT SLIGHTLY AS IT BUMPS INTO EAST COAST RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING LATE.
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT.
1027 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME THUNDER NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 60 72 60 / 10 40 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 58 73 58 / 0 20 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 77 57 72 58 / 0 20 70 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 50 72 55 / 0 10 60 80.
/ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/ Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation. Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
719 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK. EXCEPT LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL DECOUPLED AND HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY UNDER NEARLY FULL SUN TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH A LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED. EVEN BETTER FRONTAL TIMING AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY.
718 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
900 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015 IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY.
922 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY WHERE IT IS SNOWING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND TO SERN MT CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE CWA. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER ERN MT WILL ALSO CONTINUE SEWRD. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN MON NIGHT.
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCENTRATIONS ARE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AM WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN SOME ZONES.
FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ALONG APPROACHING DAKOTAS TROUGH/WEAK FRONT. AND FAIRLY COOL AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS FRONT.
A cold front will pass through the area Monday night bringing a return to unsettled weather including breezy conditions and scattered showers.
NAM IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING AND IS QUICK TO SHIFT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS ON MONDAY EXPECT WE COULD SEE THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINLY ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS WEEK WL FEATURE A REGIME MORE TYPICAL OF THE WET SEASON WITH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE DURING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL OVER THE NEXT 24-72 HRS. (PREV DISC) FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. QUICKER INLAND PUSH OF SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING THE LOWEST POPS TO THE COAST SOUTH OF CANAVERAL. (PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH SE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS.
425 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015 SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLING.
714 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY BEFORE PASSING EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DEPARTURE OF S/WV TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH EXPECTED OVER FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
741 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SESONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY. MAIN EVENT DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SHEARING OUT SLIGHTLY AS IT BUMPS INTO EAST COAST RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING LATE.