Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm afternoon temperatures and increasingly breezy weather are expected as high pressure over the Midwest continues to shift off to the east and a storm starts to shift into the High Plains. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer versus Mon. Capping is expected to weaken by mid afternoon along the dry line with cooler mid levels and at some diurnal heating kicking in as stratus breaks up. As the low tracks east, a cold front will catch up to the dry line with the convective mode potentially becoming more linear in an overall more stable environment later in the evening and overnight.
IS MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS IS WHERE WE CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A LATE NIGHT TEMP FALL WITH SOME OF OUR VALLEYS IN THE NORHT AND NORTHEAST SITTING IN THE LOWER 30S THIS MORNING. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AS WE DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. RIDGES SHOULD STAY MIXED KEEPING THEM IN THE LOWER 40S. A TRANSITION TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING DOWNSTREAM OF A DAMPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
247 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW.
334 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
333 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
Considerable uncertainty still exists regarding when the morning convection will move out, and how much destabilization can then occur before a dry line and cold front move into the area Wednesday evening. The activity will move east of the area later Wednesday night as the cold front moves rapidly southeast through the area.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL A PIECE OF THE ENERGY KICKS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WEAK CYCLOGENSIS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL HELP DRAW UP A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY AND WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
221 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 An upper low over Eastern Nevada will continue to bring a few showers today and Wednesday. The low moves east by the end of the week with high pressure building in and lasting into the weekend.
317 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO TROUGHING THROUGH THE DAY. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF LATER IN THE WEEK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
329 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH CIRCULATION CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER AND MOISTURE SPREADING N INTO MT IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
220 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 High pressure will begin to move into the region from the north Today. Lingering high pressure will allow dry weather through the rest of the week.
318 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 High pressure to our northeast will keep us dry and mostly sunny today with near seasonal temperatures.
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES S THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS UT/WY THROUGH TUES. BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALSO ON TUESDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND INTO WYOMING.
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT.
345 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016 DEEP UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN UTAH CONTINUES TO DRIVE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER IN MOST AREAS VS READINGS 24 HOURS. BUT STILL NEED SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR MORE PRODUCTIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE HIGHER VALLEYS FLOORS.
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY TO OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY WITH LESS WIND AND WARMER TEMPS WEDNESDAY /ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE B.
312 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Early this morning a deep upper low was located over NV and will slowly dig east-southeast into the four corners area Tonight. A downstream upper level ridge over the plains will move east to the mid and lower MS river valley Tonight. The western counties will only reach the lower to mid 60s with more cloud cover.
416 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 AREA IS CURRENTLY ON THE FRINGES OF DRAINAGE FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER DEWPOINTS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MARITIME DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST UP TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
407 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST BRINGING SUNNY COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
343 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA WILL PUSH EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THE NEXT SYSTEM ENCROACH ON THE GREAT LAKES.
331 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 (Today and Tonight) Moisture continues to increase in the low levels tonight with good southerly flow across the area. Western areas that see more sunshine will be warmer.
316 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF OREGON AS TEMPERATURES COULD DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
149 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY DIE DOWN.
246 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SIERRA NEVADA.
331 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
613 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW.
A ridge will become more established over the eastern CONUS by midweek with low-level flow along the eastern Gulf Coast becoming southerly and increasing. The result should be seasonably warm daytime temperatures, gradually increasing moisture, and much warmer than normal overnight temperatures. In general, this period should be dry given the deep ridging.
445 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
416 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN AWHILE BUT WE FINALLY HAVE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE MID WEST STATES MEANS A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS THAT SWIFT ZONAL FLOWN HAD BEEN PROVIDING. RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PULLS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE.
519 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISO/WIDELY SCT SHRAS EXPECTED TODAY BUT POPS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. PCPN CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THURS AFTN. THE LINGER- ING TROF AXIS TO OUR WEST COULD KEEP MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FCST SAT/SUN (HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS COOL). THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SUN. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX TODAY/TOMORROW. 41 HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
354 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EJECT NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER PLAINS TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
243 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. FRIES THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SEEN NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR THE APEX OF THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH AND DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT. THE MAIN FEATURES INCLUDE THE LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM H500 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A CANADIAN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE. WITH TIME THESE FEATURES MERGE INTO A NEARLY FULL TROUGH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES MORE LATITUDINAL. WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN EITHER THE GFS OR NAM. BY WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING RAIN WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX NEAR THE END OF THE DAY.
332 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
125 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Intense 538 dm cold closed low spinning into western Utah this morning. This upper cyclone is expected to remain nearly stationary over the Great Basin today, as a strong leeside surface cyclone deepens over eastern Colorado. Can't rule out an isolated cell, and kept the low pops just east of the dryline during peak heating as inherited.
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE UTAH AND NEVADA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. AND WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
High pressure is building into the region from the northwest, with skies clearing from west to east at the same time. More sunshine tomorrow will mean temperatures rising to the low 60s for many locations. A light northeasterly flow would keep us from getting too much warmer, as high pressure moves over the eastern Great Lakes. Dry air mixing down in the afternoon should allow temperatures to drop quickly again Tuesday night, but a slightly stronger southeasterly flow by early Wednesday morning, thanks to the high shifting to the Mid-Atlantic coast, should keep us limited to patchy frost in our northeast, at best.
203 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT.
302 AM MST TUE MAR 29 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
316 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. THE COMBO OF THE HIGH SLIDING EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OUT WEST WILL BRING A RAPID RETURN FLOW AND SOME DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MODEL AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGHTS HAVE THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF OUR EASTERN AREAS.
125 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A strong pressure gradient exists between a 997 millibar low pressure system over northeastern Utah and 1019 mb high pressure area over northwest Montana.
315 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS MIDDLE TN IN A BIT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. THIS LLJ TAPS INTO THE DEEPLY MOIST SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS AND STARTS TO PULL A TRAIN OF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
605 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
636 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND MODEST WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. ISSUED 343 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA WILL PUSH EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THE NEXT SYSTEM ENCROACH ON THE GREAT LAKES.
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AS WE DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. RIDGES SHOULD STAY MIXED KEEPING THEM IN THE LOWER 40S.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.
412 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT THIS TIME. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z EARLY TODAY. BEHIND THIS DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE RESERVED FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BROOKINGS VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. BACK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POSITIVE THETAE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVELS. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THEY SUGGEST THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AIDING IN THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.
640 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.
255 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 FORECAST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE.
317 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG IT.
230 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND BRING WITH IT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VENUTRA MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SW MISSOURI. /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND NRN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTN HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AFTER THE WEEKEND.
255 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WILL BE CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BRINGING A VERY PLEASANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME POTENTIALLY EXISTS FOR A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
103 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN TO MOBRIDGE SD. FROM AROUND SELFRIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
359 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
440 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE STATE AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
649 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG IT.
Increasing threat of wet, slow moving thunderstorms Thursday Isolated thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain of southern Idaho county and across Lemhi county this afternoon.
259 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.
544 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MONTGOMERY STREAMFUCTION PLOTS SUGGEST FLOW ALONG THIS SURFACE SHOULD LIKEWISE ASCEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WARM FRONT TRAILS THE SLUG OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FRIES STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARDS THE REGION WILL HELP SHIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARDS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AMID MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAY BREAK WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
203 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE WIND AND TEMP TRENDS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF BTV WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER 60S. GIVEN TIGHT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN LIGHT OF NWD REACH OF LEAD PCPN SHIELD HAVE AGAIN BUMPED POPS HIGHER ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT W/LIKELY HEAVY RAIN ALG/SWD OF THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR THROUGH NRN IN/NW OH. W/RESIDUAL POST FNTL TROUGHING KEEPING CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME DZ/--RA INTACT UNTIL ERLY AFTN ESP EAST. UNSEASONABLY COOL OTHERWISE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S.
411 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
1259 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 LATEST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LARGE SCALE TRANSITIONING FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE DOME PREVAILING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH A UPSTREAM TROF BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST COAST. NAM/GFS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ECM AND GFS ON TRACK SHOWING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE CONUS. SHOULD SEE AFTN HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S ON SAT AND SUN WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100.
1214 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO MONTANA WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHLD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN.
330 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT TO BE GENERALLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WAA RETURNING. PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE FINALLY BREAKS WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC.
SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO. WE ARE LOOSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER CANADA. MOST NOTABLY POCATELLO WHERE A HIGH OF ABOUT 68 MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE THE HIGH FOR THE DAY IF THE SUN DOES NOT SNEAK IN PRETTY SOON. SOME DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL HEAT UP THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
318 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN TO PIERRE SD.
316 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SIMILAR REGIME ON TAP AS BROAD RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGER MECHANISMS KEEP THE AREA IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN. AND ANY WEAK LEE TROUGH PRESENT. TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WARMER WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. 31 /ISSUED 419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/ THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A 594DM RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FROM TEXAS THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA.