Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
249 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE NOT VARIED BEYOND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED SUBSIDENCE INDICATING DRYER CONDITIONS WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WITH THE DEEP RIDGING OVER OUR CWA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WAS LOCATED NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR.
258 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF DFW. /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SE OK AND EXTREME NE TX TO JUST SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS N LA. THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OUR WAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER OUR WESTERN TIER NOW. THE CORE OF THE STILL CLOSED LOW IS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING NNE NEAR 20 MPH TO JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS SLOWLY DRIFTING OUR WAY. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED AND BLENDED WITH NEW MEX WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PICTURE AMONG THE VARIOUS CONTRIBUTORS WITH MAV A TAD COOLER NORTH WHICH HAS BEEN BLENDED INTO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE CONFLUENT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140KT JET STREAK RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES KEEPING SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP LAYER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING TODAY IN PRECIP BAND LIKELY A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MINIMAL OR NO ACCUM AFTER SUNRISE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXIT ON THURSDAY.
AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUT THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLUSHY RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE SUNRISE BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF I-70.
644 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ARKANSAS HAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALOFT THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WEST TX WITH SOME LIFT PUSHING NE TO AR.
1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Area of showers increasing across the southwest half of Missouri this morning, ahead of an upper low currently lifting northeast from west Texas. 00Z upper air analysis shows cut-off low that had previously been stationary over the southern Baja Peninsula has opened up and lifted into west Texas.
353 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Water vapor imagery loop shows complex, slow-moving upper low over the Southern Plains with rather complex precipitation areas in its vicinity. Northern stream upper trough then moves southeastward into the Central Plains Thursday afternoon, which should keep precip chances mainly in east central Kansas during that time.
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES IN THE AREAS OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
946 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Area of showers increasing across the southwest half of Missouri this morning, ahead of an upper low currently lifting northeast from west Texas. 00Z upper air analysis shows cut-off low that had previously been stationary over the southern Baja Peninsula has opened up and lifted into west Texas.
EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DECREASED MIXING ALLOW FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OFF LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY APPRECIABLE STRATUS FORMATION GIVEN DRY AIRMASS. TODAY AND TONIGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL COUNTERACT SOME OF THIS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TO MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES IN THE AREAS OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST (INCLUDING VOLUSIA) AND MID 80S INLAND.
304 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ALL BUT STALLED. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE LAKE REGION TOMORROW.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
130 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
1026 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY.
KEPT THE LOWEST VALUES FARTHER E. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE FRI WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C TO -23C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MI. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXIT E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
926 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY.
942 AM PDT WED MAR 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE COOLER WEATHER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OUT AND WEAK RIDGE MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS GOING WARMER TONIGHT AND MORE TOWARD THE BETTER GUIDANCE TODAY.
THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN KICKED OUT AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO KANSAS.
A BUSY PATTERN SETS UP FOR THESE DAYS WITH THE THREE COLD FRONTS TO DISCUSS. WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTER IN NORTHERN MANITOBA SWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
250 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper trough over the lwr Trans Pecos, and slowly moving NE toward the South Plains. Further south, the Rio Grande at Presidio Int'l Bridge rose 4' last hour. Sfc flow is anticipated to veer to the S later today as high pressure moves east, and a leeside trough begins developing ahead of the next west coast trough. However, w/saturated soils and cloud cover slow to dissipate, staying toward the cooler side of guidance seems prudent for the next couple of days. Even so, temps should warm to abv-normal by Thursday afternoon as winds veer to SW in response to the leeside trough sinking into the South Plains.
MAJORITY OF RAINFALL HAS NOW MOVED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS MID/UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSIDENCE INDICATING DRYER CONDITIONS WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WITH THE DEEP RIDGING OVER OUR CWA.
Models suggest that the lowest ceilings will return overnight for most locations, returning to IFR across most terminals by sunrise. Based on observations, over the last 6 hours, the lowest stratus deck is very ragged. That's where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate.
THE REFLECTIVITIES COMING OVER THE TN RIVER ATTM ARE PROBABLY DOING NOTHING MORE THAN HELPING THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN BECAUSE ITS DRY OUT THERE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND TEMPERATURES VCNTY PCPN BAND CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING TODAY IN PRECIP BAND LIKELY A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MINIMAL OR NO ACCUM AFTER SUNRISE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXIT ON THURSDAY.
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THU AM. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S TODAY WITH CLOUDS KEEPING LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR TNT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EAST AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE A LAKE BREEZE TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AREAS TO THE WEST WERE MUCH COOLER. DECIDED TO KEEP THE LIMITED SEVERE AREA ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SE OK AND EXTREME NE TX TO JUST SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS N LA. THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OUR WAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER OUR WESTERN TIER NOW. THE CORE OF THE STILL CLOSED LOW IS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING NNE NEAR 20 MPH TO JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS SLOWLY DRIFTING OUR WAY. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED AND BLENDED WITH NEW MEX WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PICTURE AMONG THE VARIOUS CONTRIBUTORS WITH MAV A TAD COOLER NORTH WHICH HAS BEEN BLENDED INTO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
317 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER NE TX AT THIS TIME. COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST THIS EVENING. WILL SEE MAX TEMPS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S. LAPSE RATES LOOK A LITTLE STEEPER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE RICHER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S.
134 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 NW FLOW IS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC EXTENDS FM NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING FM THE WEST GRADUALLY. BUT THAT IS NOT OCCURRING AS OVERALL THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOO MINIMAL.
435 AM PDT WED MAR 18 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
313 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
TO THE LOWER-MID 40S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR. OVERVIEW: FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING LINGERS OVER EASTERN CANADA. CORE OF COLDEST AIR AND CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NRN HUDSON BAY. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NOSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL SFC ANALYSIS DOES REVEAL WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND A THIN CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER EXPANDING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. REALLY NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY AS WELL AS THICKENING CI/CS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY.
358 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON LATER THURSDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.
The highest likelihood of precipitation will be south of I-70 where lift and moisture are both more favorable; however, amounts will still be light throughout the forecast area with the better dynamics remaining over southern Missouri and points southward. The initial wave of light rain will shift eastward and diminish slightly as the upper low slides eastward along the Gulf Coast this evening and tonight, leading to a break in rainfall and perhaps a transition to drizzle in saturated areas after sunset.
827 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THUS FAR DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS BEEN WINNING OUT YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. THINK A RECOVERY INTO THE LOW 30S FAR NORTHEAST AND LOW 40S IN MY NORTHWEST IS REASONABLE. TEMPS GENERALLY WARMER THAN THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING SO HAVE MY SOUTH TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE LOW LEVELS. KTW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN EAST CENTRAL TX IS SPREADING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE BETTER MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA LOWERING CIGS TO AROUND 1500 FT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
1247 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY.
617 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION IS FILTERING THROUGH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO ALLOW FOR DECENT WARMING AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. THINK A RECOVERY INTO THE LOW 30S FAR NORTHEAST AND LOW 40S IN MY NORTHWEST IS REASONABLE. TEMPS GENERALLY WARMER THAN THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING SO HAVE MY SOUTH TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
536 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THIS HAS MEANT LESS CLOUD COVER, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN WAS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY.
327 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET/EC MOS.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NUDGE SOUTH ACROSS NE FLORIDA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE WEDGE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT ONSHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
1131 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
High pressure will help dry conditions out by later today, but fog could once again become an issue at all terminal sites late tonight through 19/1200Z.
HIGH TERRAIN AND AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTRIBUTED TO CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO NE OF A LINE FROM CAMBRIDGE TO IDAHO CITY. FORECAST IN ON TRACK WITH JUST A MINOR UPDATE FOR MORNING TEMPERATURES COOLER THOSE TWO LOCALES AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE BLUES AND SRN MTNS.
DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE. THEN IN THE LOWER 70S TOMORROW. THIS MEANS LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS DOWN NEAR FREEZING.
229 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 The upper low that brought the rain showers yesterday has moved to the northeast of the region with southerly winds and gradually clearing skies returning to the area. An upper level trough over northern Mexico just south of California will move east toward the region on Thursday.
303 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 48 53 48 / 10 90 100 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 42 50 47 / 10 70 100 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 43 49 48 / 10 70 100 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 39 51 43 / 10 60 100 70.
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR I-20 WILL MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWD AND POOL ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE PANHANDLES EARLY TO MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY. /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WAS PROGRESSING STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND AREA OF ASCENT SHIFTS EAST. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH LEADING TO AT LEAST WEAK PROLONGED ASCENT IN COMBINATION ANOMALOUS MOISTURE NECESSITATED AN UPWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SEEM MOST PROBABLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF WERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE FOUND.
253 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
Based on observations, over the last 6 hours, the lowest stratus deck is very ragged. That's where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate.
COOLER TEMPS REMAIN IN SE GA IN MID TO UPPER 70S BUT AROUND 80 IN NE FL.
715 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
139 PM PDT WED MAR 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE COOLER WEATHER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
340 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) Cloudy and cool across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures still in the lower 60s. Showers have pushed away, with the main upper low having shifted north of the area. Next upper low will drop into northwest Mexico by Thursday afternoon, with weak upper level ridging in place across much of Texas. The second and probably more likely area would be along the warm front. In either case, for most of West Central Texas the best rain chances will await til Thursday night as the upper low gets closer and the upper low shifts east and allows a cold front to drop into the area. An upper level trough will swing across the Plains Thursday, with an upper level low/trough located across Baja California.
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM S/W CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHEAST U.
709 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 NW FLOW IS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC EXTENDS FM NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING FM THE WEST GRADUALLY. BUT THAT IS NOT OCCURRING AS OVERALL THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOO MINIMAL.
EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE THUMB TO THE MID-20S NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. FORECASTED HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE HEART OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST. /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WAS PROGRESSING STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND AREA OF ASCENT SHIFTS EAST. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH LEADING TO AT LEAST WEAK PROLONGED ASCENT IN COMBINATION ANOMALOUS MOISTURE NECESSITATED AN UPWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SEEM MOST PROBABLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF WERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE FOUND.
1006 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
701 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
1057 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
423 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT.
1117 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ARKANSAS HAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALOFT THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WEST TX WITH SOME LIFT PUSHING NE TO AR.
126 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPR MIDWEST WILL MOVE E-SE TO THE LWR GRTLKS BY THU MORNING PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLOUDS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AS PAC NW SHRTWV/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS/MIXING BEHIND DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT TO LESS THAN INDICATED BY LATEST MOS FCSTS. AND SOME MOISTURE PROVIDED BY A PARTIAL EJECTION FROM AN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AFT 06Z.
COLD FRONT ABOUT WEDNESDAY LOOKING RATHER SPRING-LIKE GW TUL 46 59 44 65 / 40 60 100 10 FSM 46 62 52 65 / 60 40 100 40 MLC 50 65 50 64 / 40 40 100 30 BVO 42 55 41 66 / 40 60 80 10 FYV 43 58 44 63 / 70 50 100 30 BYV 38 54 43 62 / 60 50 80 20 MKO 46 62 47 64 / 40 50 100 20 MIO 42 55 42 65 / 50 50 80 10 F10 48 63 47 64 / 40 40 100 20 HHW 51 67 55 66 / 40 40 90 40.
1148 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA BACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE. TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN UNDER THE THICKET BLANKET OF CLOUDS.
An upper level low is currently digging south along the west coast. The farther south track will keep temperatures cooler today through Sunday night.