Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thereafter, we expect another unseasonably warm afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 70s over the Nature Coast, to the low 80s along the southwest Florida coast and interior sections of southern Florida. High pressure will continue to shift off the southeast U.
A warm front extending from the low will work it's way across the forecast area. We will have a Southerly wind today and temps especially across the South will be warm with readings around 50 to the lower 50s. Up North where the snowpack is temps will be cooler. As the low lift towards Southern Iowa forcing increases and we will see rain and fog.
Conditions will obviously improve somewhat during the next few hours, but then a warm front moving northward into Middle Tennessee will spread rain across the mid state for the remainder of the day. We'll get a brief reprieve for a few hours until a cold front approaching from the west brings another round of activity starting late tonight, and will affect areas mainly to the west of BNA prior to 12Z.
tapering off to mostly hit-and-miss snow showers after a cold front passage this morning.
945 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Quiet WX day as an H100-H70 anticyclone centered near Apalachicola pushes acrs central/north FL. Wind profilers outline the anticyclone quite well with E/NE flow east of the FL Turnpike.
Large scale pattern at the start of the period is characterized by a rather low amplitude 500 hPa pattern with a upper trough across the Pacific Northwest and the far northern Intermountain West with a quasi-zonal flow over the Central Plains. The upper trough over the next 24 hours will lift eastward into the Northern Plains with modest height falls expected across the region this morning and afternoon. Winds will then stay elevated overnight as the low departs the Central High Plains. Colder air associated with this winter system will already be moving into the region keeping temperatures on Tuesday cooler than the last few days. Expect highs to range from the upper 20s across the north to the low 50s across the south.
Low pressure moving into the central plains will deepen as it moves across Iowa tonight and into the southern great lakes Tuesday. A trailing cold front will sweep across Indiana late Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
On the western edge of low level high pressure, light winds from the south will continue to advect moisture into the area.
Once the highs are reached, readings will likely be fairly steady through the night.
Some freezing drizzle will be possible over the far southern Red River Valley for tonight. Added freezing drizzle in the far southern zones for tonight. Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast was moving onshore. Downstream upper ridge was building over MT. Upper level ridge will move over the area tonight and flatten. Pacific Northwest upper trough will move through early Tue and produce next round of snow for the area. Good upper level divergence expected with trough.
Expansive high pressure has drifted east over the past 24 hrs, centered over the Florida Big Bend. On the the underside of the high pressure, a poorly defined frontal boundary is located across the Florida Straits, partially explaining higher wind speeds and precip echos offshore. Zonal flow begin to break down as a weak trough begins to dig across the Midwest Tuesday. In the lower levels, high pressure will slide to Northeast Florida & far Western Atlantic Monday afternoon, shifting well-offshore by Tuesday morning.
This fog lingering around a bit longer could help keep temperatures a bit cooler than previously forecasted, so a few minor adjustments have been made. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 49 66 56 / 50 20 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 50 66 54 / 50 30 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 55 49 65 53 / 70 30 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 45 67 48 / 50 40 60 70.
616 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure crosses today. A warm front lifts north tonight, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge will be over the central part of the U. An upper trough will then move through the state Tuesday. Rain chances will continue across central sections but will move north as a warm front moves in from the south. A cold front will then approach north Arkansas Tuesday night. This will bring in some cooler air. warmer temperatures are anticipated for today and Tuesday.
859 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure today. A warm front tonight. Cold front Tuesday night.
638 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures today.
442 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Showers and some thunderstorms ongoing overnight will continue to lift north this morning as a warm front, currently draped across the central portion of the CWA to around the Highway 82 corridor, will also continue to lift north. Some patchy fog has developed, mostly along and south of the warm front, and some of this could be dense at spots before lifting after daybreak. Most of the region will remain dry today though some light showers will be possible in the north this morning and again this afternoon in the west as the warm front continues to push north and moist air pushes north from the Gulf. A low pressure system will develop and begin to intensify across the central and southern Plains.
Storm #1 1 is beginning to decrease early this morning as precipitation has turned showery across the lower elevations with rain and high-elevation snow continuing across the northern Sierra.
1000 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warmer temperature can be expected today and rain tonight as low pressure moves toward the Great Lakes. Rain is progged to develop this evening as low pressure digs out of the Plains and across the Great Lakes.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Forecast concerns over the next 36 hours are centered on precipitation chances, types and amounts associated with a broad trough lifting from the Central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be around freezing in most areas, so there is a threat for freezing rain/drizzle. The anticipated worst-case scenario if temperatures end up a bit cooler than currently expected, would be ice accums in the 0. However, not confident low temperatures will be as cold as some of the models indicate, or that we will see enough saturation to produce those precip values, so have held off on a freezing rain advisory.
Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast was moving onshore. Downstream upper ridge was building over MT. Upper level ridge will move over the area tonight and flatten. Pacific Northwest upper trough will move through early Tue and produce next round of snow for the area. Good upper level divergence expected with trough.
The low-level jet may produce a few spits of rain the remainder of the morning, but few locations will see any precipitation. The arrival of the next cold front is trending later.
701 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Some freezing drizzle will be possible over the far southern Red River Valley for tonight. Added freezing drizzle in the far southern zones for tonight. Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast was moving onshore. Downstream upper ridge was building over MT. Upper level ridge will move over the area tonight and flatten. Pacific Northwest upper trough will move through early Tue and produce next round of snow for the area. Good upper level divergence expected with trough.
High pressure residing over the area will begin to move offshore this afternoon. High pressure over the area begins to move east this afternoon.
Looking to the southwest though, we see a warm front and associated shower activity headed this way. This warm front will slowly lift northward throughout the morning hours and bring us scattered showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder both in the morning and this afternoon.
The break will be short-lived as a cold front approaches the area on Tuesday, providing increasing showers and thunderstorms from the northwest by the latter half of Tuesday. Temperatures will be above average today with highs ranging from the 50s in north Georgia where more showers will be prevalent to the low 70s in central Georgia. Even warmer temperatures can be expected on Tuesday with breezy southwest winds ushering in highs well into the 70s for the southern half of the CWA. System clears the area with high pressure moving in behind it bringing in some cooler and much drier conditions. cooler only brings us down to seasonal norms at best and no real cold shot of air in the offing for the extended.
Warm frontogenesis is expected to develop eastward across our CWA tonight as a system lifts northeast out of the plains. Precipitation chances should be greatest along and north of the boundary early but should start to fill in across most of our CWA later in the period as the cold front associated with the system approaches.
920 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Low pressure traveling from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes will bring widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday.
On the large scale, nearly zonal upper-level flow persists across the North American subtropics, while a mean ridge prevails over most of the Gulf basin.
527 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 A well defined warm front was located just north of the TXK/ELD terminal, our northern most terminal locations as of 11z this morning. The fog was caused by wet soils from the cooling rains yesterday with warm air from the warm front moving over these areas. So commuters should use caution and take extra time for your commute, the warm front that caused the fog should be confined to southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas through mid to late morning.
A weak cold front will affect northern Arizona from today through Tuesday.
As the cold front currently impacting NW MT moves south this afternoon, precip (in the form of snow) will make it down to valley floors.
Cold front appears to reach Livingston around 12z. The approaching trof is still on track to bring some snow across the region. with best potential in the high terrain.
A band of showers associated with a warm front stretched across the northern Gulf Coast states. This warm front is forecast to gradually lift north into the Ohio Valley today in response to lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. 300 J/kg MUCAPE may yield some hail, especially given low freezing levels around 10 kft. This activity as well as extensive cloud cover are sources of significant uncertainty with regard to the passage of a strong cold front Tuesday evening. Storms will likely become surface based closer to the pre-frontal trough.
622 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 KTRI currently LIFR for freezing fog this morning, will see improvement with sunrise to MVFR by late morning and VFR by afternoon.
/issued 339 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A nearly zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce dry weather for the entire short term forecast period with cold front passages not likely.
At the surface a weak pressure gradient will be over the region today with weak high pressure over the Southeast. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s.
This area looks most favorable for the highest and most prolonged winds, therefore, we went with a Wind Advisory beginning at 18Z for the southwestern TX Panhandle counties. Zonal flow will transition to a more amplified western ridge/eastern trough pattern followed by the ridge moving eastward across the Plains states. Finally, an upper level trough on the back side of the ridge will drop southward through the intermountain west, closing off over Arizona or southern California before moving further southward into northwestern Mexico.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central WY, with frontal boundary extending south-southeast along the lee of the Rockies and into southwest KS. Upper level analysis shows ridge remaining over the Rockies region, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. Slightly cooler air will settle into at least northern portions of the cwa on Thursday as a weak front to the north slides south into the area.
Concur with the GFS deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East.
Temperatures will also fall in the afternoon a couple degrees with lake breeze boundaries and a cold front moving through. An upper trough moving through late Thu will lead to showers and thunderstorms exiting eastern Upper Michigan by late Thu night. Expected rain along an approaching cold front and quickly lowering ceilings are expected Thu morning with conditions lowering to IFR at KCMX and MVFR at KIWD. A cold front crossing Lake Superior late tonight through Thursday will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest over the east half.
904 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Skies will remain mostly clear most of the night as high pressure slowly pushes east. The first system is another cold front from Canada in the northwest flow over the eastern half of country. Then as the high pressure moves east, winds will become more southerly with speeds less than 10kts.
658 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Cold front dropping south thru nrn ND into nw MN causing scattered storms as anticipated. Models differ a little on the strength of the north winds Thu as the high builds in, some a little stronger than others.
For the northern terminals, drier air has moved in behind a cold front and VFR conditions are expected.
Temps have been running a little cooler thanks to earlier outflow but expect most locales to reach 90 deg by mid/late afternoon. Upper ridge is progged to build farther east over the area. and that fact along with associated developing cap may preclude most moist convection Thursday with the exception of the southern Panhandle where instability and NW flow/weakness along periphery of ridge may allow a few storms to initiate and move south. Temperatures a little warmer Thursday. in the lower to mid 90s.
910 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
Otherwise high pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions into Thursday.
Today marks the third day in a row that the high temperature (102F) at the Boise Airport met or exceeded 100F. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower on Thursday as the upper ridge will weaken slightly.
Below normal yet pleasant temperatures will continue through the evening and into tomorrow, and with slightly cooler temperatures than the previous forecast, lowered temps just a bit overnight.
So despite temperatures in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Clouds will increase overnight Thursday night as a cold front approaches.
737 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will build in tonight with dry air and persist into Thursday night.
841 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight.
1211 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight.
Expect most all land areas to stay dry Thursday night as upper high moves closer, approaching central Texas by late Thu.
Models differ a little on the strength of the north winds Thu as the high builds in, some a little stronger than others.
706 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
/00Z TAFs/ High pressure aloft and a dry airmass over TX will keep area TAF sites VFR through the next 24-30 hours.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: An upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest is translating east and is helping to drive northwest flow aloft across Northeast Montana.
This will send a weak surface cold front across the area extending from northeast Missouri to west central Missouri. The area of focus will be along and ahead of the cold front until Thursday evening.
939 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
1124 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will slide well offshore overnight. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday.
Most locales were cooler on Wed except in Shasta Co. with the Delta influenced region some 7 to 13 degrees cooler. Onshore pressure gradients increased to over 5 mbs and the marine layer deepened from around 800 ft to nearly 1800 ft as a weak upper level trof moved onshore initiating a cooling trend primarily felt in the Valley with minor cooling in the mtns. A baggy trof is forecast to remain over Norcal on Thu but the Delta Breeze should weaken during the day. JHM High pressure continues to be the predominant weather pattern across interior northern California. Temperatures, as of this afternoon, are running a few degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Cooling trend is expected late this week, as an upper trough develops along the Pacific Northwest.
709 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Amplified longwave pattern across North America with a deep trough northeast and strong ridging over the western states. Cold front over the Western Lakes Thursday morning will begin to spread some high clouds into Northern Michigan as it approaches.
If anybody was thinking a cold front would bring our region pleasant conditions at the end of the June, think again. Lows tonight could be a little cooler than has been the case lately thanks to the drier air filtering in (but still far from pleasant).
The first system is another cold front from Canada in the northwest flow over the eastern half of country. Then as the high pressure moves east, winds will become more southerly with speeds less than 10kts.
There is some weak Theta-E advection riding the upper level ridge along the Missouri River Valley in western Iowa and may help spawn some storms over western Iowa this afternoon into the early evening. /Thursday through Wednesday/ Thunderstorm chances appear decent for Thursday as we have a cold front that will sink South through the forecast area during the day.
Due to the low confidence in the activity developing and moving in from Western IA, have gone with slight chance POPs overnight and any expected severe activity would likely be in the form of some stronger wind gusts and hail.
A weak trough axis remains situated across the region this afternoon with an associated front draped across the southern half of GA/AL/MS.
Much of the evening should be rather quiet and pleasant as high pressure over the Ohio Valley exerts its influence into at least the eastern Ozarks. As for lows tonight, another comfortable night expected over the eastern Ozarks with lows in the lower 60s. A little warmer to the west with lows around 70 for southeast kansas and the far southwest Missouri. Highs look to range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to near 90 in far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.
/issued 307 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/ Pressure ridge into our region producing fine summer weather across the Midsouth with moderate humidity and temperatures for this time of year under plenty of sunshine. Ideal summer weather for late June thanks to 500 mb trough located across the Eastern US.
Other than the cloud cover, we're expecting gusty winds along the coast as the thermal trough really kicks in tomorrow.
746 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will build in tonight with dry air and persist into Thursday night.
(prev disc) Southwest flow aloft between a weak positive tilt trough over the NE GOMEX and a stout ridge extending NE from south FL and the Bahamas will prevail over the next two days.
As a result had to nudge overnight lows down a couple degrees, particularly in the typically cooler locations across our CWA. 18z SFC analysis shows a dome of high pressure settling into the area from the northwest. This is bringing a drier air mass into the state along with some cooler temperatures.
A cold front will continue to drop south through the forecast area tonight. Scattered thunderstorms continue to drop south across the northern tier counties, ahead of a cold front. Current surface analysis places cold front sagging southward near the international border with low off towards northeastern Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with low over southwestern Hudson Bay, bringing northwest flow to our area. Weak short wave trough sliding through western North Dakota continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in area of enhanced instability where deep layer shear is also elevated a bit. Cooler airmass settles in which will bring below average temperatures to the area.
/Issued 247 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016/ The latest SPC mesoanalysis of CAPE clearly shows the highest values across the southern tier with 2500 to near 3000 J/KG of energy to work with. Given fluctuation in trough axis anticipated. BDL The eastern trough will hold through the end of the week.
If convection can hold together long enough to make it into Corson county, it is timed to move into the county within the hour, and timed to reach Mobridge by shortly after 7 PM CDT. Tonight, a strong Canada-sourced cold front /near the international border/ will sweep southward across the northern plains, including this CWA, wringing out any available low level moisture through Thursday morning. The Rapid Refresh model is also continuing to imply some of this low level moisture is converted into post-frontal mvfr/vfr stratus which advects into the CWA between 09Z and 15Z Thursday. Thursday, the cold air advection noted in the 925hpa and 850hap thermal progs lends support to forecast high temperatures only in the mid 70s across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota to the low/mid 80s over central South Dakota.
High pressure over the region will result in continued warm to very warm temperatures over inland areas through late week. Meanwhile, coastal areas will remain cooler due to the persistent marine influence. A weak mid/upper level trough along the Pacific Northwest and northern California coast has allow for cooling along coastal areas today. Meanwhile, a persistent ridge over the Desert Southwest continues to result in warm temperatures over inland areas of the region.
1255 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
A ridge extending westward and reaching the Florida Peninsula tonight, will remain across through at least the holiday weekend.
Activity has been mostly over the high terrain with the exception of a line of showers/tstms from north of Roundup to Baker and Ekalaka.
High pressure will build into the region tonight, which with mostly clear skies overnight (aside from some passing high clouds), we should see temperatures similar to if not colder than this morning. Thursday, we will have another vortmax pass by to our north, at the base of the larger scale trough over the northeast U.
Current thunderstorm activity over northeast KS is likely being aided by a weak mid-level disturbance along the eastern fringe of warmer 850-700mb temperatures, amidst an unstable airmass. Like last night, expecting another complex or two of storms to get going across the high plains of CO/NE/KS this evening and propagate southeast overnight. Another area of convection could initiate overnight across northeast KS along eastern fringe of warmer 850-700mb temperatures.
Overnight lows are expected to be similar to last night but slightly warmer over central MO, primarily due to increased mid/upper cloud cover. May see a brief break in activity then main cold front to move in Thursday night with showers and storms developing along it.
1055 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure through Thursday.
As for tomorrow a cold front makes its way through the CWA during the afternoon and evening time period bringing with it cooler temps and another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A few showers and storms may then move into the northern zones toward morning as a trough settles into the area. Temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 70s inland, and the mid 70s to near 80 along the coast.
where scattered thunderstorms that develop along a cold front approach from the north after 00z.