Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
653 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A cold front will push slowly eastward into central Illinois tonight. 20z/3pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Michigan southwestward into northern Missouri. The airmass ahead of the slow-moving cold front will become moderately unstable, but will remain weakly sheared. The cold front will gradually shift eastward into Indiana Saturday night, resulting in an end to the rain chances.
609 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 Warm and humid weather will continue into Saturday in the breezy southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
845 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 A cold front will push slowly eastward into central Illinois tonight. surface based cells are trying to stay alive along the surface cold front just east of the Illinois River. 20z/3pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Michigan southwestward into northern Missouri. The airmass ahead of the slow-moving cold front will become moderately unstable, but will remain weakly sheared. The cold front will gradually shift eastward into Indiana Saturday night, resulting in an end to the rain chances.
743 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 Warm and humid weather will continue into Saturday in the breezy southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
With the upper ridge well offshore and mid level winds from the northeast continuing to feed a cold air mass into the region, the area will see another night of unseasonably cold temperatures. The low at Medford was one degree above the record low for today, for reference. East of the Cascades will see another night of below freezing temperatures, but that is seasonably normal for this time of year, and the frost advisory is in effect for the valleys of Jackson, Josephine and Central and Western Siskiyou counties. The upper ridge build farther east with an upper low over Washington state Saturday, bringing showers to the our northern Cascades, and portions of the east side in Oregon.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front has made very slow progress southeast this evening, and currently extends from near Miami in far northeast OK to Okmulgee into south central OK.
Cooler than normal temperatures and decreasing winds can be expected through Saturday.
Behind the surface cold front, the frontal inversion/stable layer will strongly curtail the damaging-wind (and tornado) risk. This instability, coupled with effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts, may support vigorous elevated convection tonight behind the surface cold front, with a primary risk of large (1"+) hail, especially with any elevated supercells. A gradual progression of clearing is expected on Sun afternoon into Sun evening as high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer lows are forecast for Mon night, but isolated/patchy frost again appears possible in this area. A surface cyclone is expected to consolidate across the southern Plains on Tue, then approach the region on Wed. The passage of a cold front tonight will bring a period of MVFR cigs and scattered showers to the area, with a low risk of a tstm as well.
619 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 The main area of showers is highlighting the weak surface cold front sinking southeast across the area through the rest of the afternoon hours. Enhanced by the 500mb trough and daytime heating, scattered to broken cumulus clouds have been able to develop.
719 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 The latest upper level map features amplified flow, with a deep closed low centered across Hudson Bay, and troughing aligned southwest all the way to the West Coast. A subtropical ridge is positioned around Cuba, with rising heights spreading northwest into the southeastern CONUS and through the southern/central Appalachians. At the surface, broad low pressure is located across southeastern Ontario, with secondary low pressure near northern Michigan. A cold front is aligned southwest through the middle Mississippi Valley and into the southern Plains, with another cold front aligned from the Upper Midwest through the northern Plains. The subtropical ridge will expand northward across the western Atlantic, while the trough across the northwest half of the CONUS becomes more confined northward.
The lower level ridge also extends across Florida, and the embedded swath of increased lower level moisture has now lifted well north of our area and into Central Florida. This evenings sounding indicated decent veering through the lowest levels. Aloft, the Keys remain with a broad diffluent fan to the east of a broad upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the surface through lower level ridge will lift further northward into Central and North Florida. The upper level support will weaken modestly and the lower levels will remain somewhat lacking in moisture.
The latest upper level map features amplified flow, with a deep closed low centered across Hudson Bay, and troughing aligned southwest all the way to the West Coast. A subtropical ridge is positioned around Cuba, with rising heights spreading northwest into the southeastern CONUS and through the southern/central Appalachians. At the surface, broad low pressure is located across southeastern Ontario, with secondary low pressure near northern Michigan. A cold front is aligned southwest through the middle Mississippi Valley and into the southern Plains, with another cold front aligned from the Upper Midwest through the northern Plains. The subtropical ridge will expand northward across the western Atlantic, while the trough across the northwest half of the CONUS becomes more confined northward.
524 PM MDT Fri May 20 2022 20z surface analysis had trough from central MN into southeast WY with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it on the SD plains. Popcorn showers over much of the CWA under upper trough axis from southern MB into UT. Tonight, upper trough axis shifts slowly southeast, but mean upper trough remains across central Canada into the Rockies. Should see another round of showers with some snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills where minor accumulations will occur.
/issued 259 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022/ Broad southwesterly flow will continue across West Texas tonight and Saturday as the disturbance which sent a very welcomed cold front moves into the Great Lakes region. We still expect some RFTI values of 3-4 in the cooler airmass. A secondary surge of cooler air is expected to move in around daybreak on Saturday bringing with it some breezy conditions during the morning. However, we look to continue to play sloshing cold front through the day on Saturday before it finally surges through Saturday night.
701 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 A weak cold front will settle into northern Indiana tonight and into the overnight hours with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Deep upper trough that has brought gusty southwest winds to the region today, will start to lift to our north tonight, remaining nearby through the weekend.
621 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon will be the cold front currently bisecting the area from near Prague to Norman to Wichita Falls area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible behind the cold front later this evening and tonight across central and northeast parts of the area, posing a risk for hail, but this development is a bit more uncertain and likely tied to what happens with the first round of storms this afternoon and early evening. Cold front will resume its southward progression late tonight with low stratus expected to develop behind it by tomorrow morning which may linger into at least early afternoon for central/northern parts of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front tomorrow, with highs only in the 60s across much of the area.
Low temperatures are on track to remain in the low to mid 70s. However, a cold front will be dropping south toward the region Saturday evening.
This will result in a fairly warm night with lows only dropping into the lower 70s with mid 70s across portions of the coastal counties and along the beaches.
A broad, positively tilted trough is sitting off to the west this afternoon. As the trough pushes eastward this evening and into Saturday the main PV anomaly will move across Nebraska. Highs will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than the 75 degree normals for mid-late May. so have gone on the warmer side of guidance.
The low stratus could also develop in the Umpqua Basin, near Roseburg. With the upper ridge well offshore and mid level winds from the northeast continuing to feed a cold air mass into the region, the area will see another night of unseasonably cold temperatures. The low at Medford was one degree above the record low for today, for reference. East of the Cascades will see another night of below freezing temperatures, but that is seasonably normal for this time of year, and the frost advisory is in effect for the valleys of Jackson, Josephine and Central and Western Siskiyou counties. The upper ridge build farther east with an upper low over Washington state Saturday, bringing showers to the our northern Cascades, and portions of the east side in Oregon.
1214 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A strong cold front will move southeast across the area early this morning.
Saturday and Sunday: High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic, but the mid-upper lvl ridge axis should nudge further offshore as a series of mid-lvl waves track across the Southeast United States. Afternoon highs will remain above normal for this time of year, but slightly cooler than the previous few days due to greater precip coverage and clouds.
Cooler than normal temperatures and decreasing winds can be expected today.
Then Canadian high pressure builds into the area allowing for clearing skies and light northwest winds. Lows will range from the upper 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. However, record lows are not expected as they are in the lower to mid 30s for May 22. Cooler than average temperatures then start to warm late week.
The approaching upper trough and northerly winds bring a notably colder night tonight. Expect temperatures to bottom out from the mid 30s along the Hwy 14 corridor to the lower 40s in northwest Iowa. Expect mainly dry but cool and cloudy weather for much of eastern and central SD Saturday as the upper trough slides in. NAM soundings support deeper saturation with the mid level trough and Fgen, but most other guidance has enough mid or lower level dry air to inhibiting rain early on. Sunday will be notably warmer than the previous few days as weak upper ridging slides through.
1201 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 A broad, positively tilted trough is sitting off to the west this afternoon. As the trough pushes eastward this evening and into Saturday the main PV anomaly will move across Nebraska. Highs will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than the 75 degree normals for mid-late May. so have gone on the warmer side of guidance.
407 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the sern U. and a broad trough over the western U. This will be in conjunction with a deep open mid and lower-level trough over the Great Lakes that morning. Convective sky cover should decrease across the central parts of the UP by early Sunday night as the high pressure shifts nearly overhead.
Showers meander southeast this afternoon as CAA bullies the cold front down the Mississippi basin.
Tonight into Sunday morning is starting to look like a prime candidate night for widespread subfreezing temperatures across the western half of the CWA, with some of that sub-freezing temp potential extending over into the James River valley. 1's probability of temperatures below freezing supports this thinking as well.
359 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 Central NC will remain under deep southerly flow over the weekend, with high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west.
A few severe storms may be possible, especially near a slow moving cold front moving through the area. Temperatures will be cool over the entire area with high pressure Sunday.
Another chance for storms on Sunday, with the passage of cold front.
Temperatures are comfortably in the low to mid 70s for most locations. A cold front will move in our direction late tonight and approach the Tennessee River by sunrise on Sunday. As storms dissipate Sunday morning, the aforementioned cold front will be on its way through the Mid State. Not everyone will see rain on Sunday, especially those across the northwestern half of the Mid State (behind the cold front).
An upper level trough axis will progress eastward across the Mississippi Valley region tonight and will be located across our forecast area during the Saturday. Afternoon temperatures around 90 degrees to the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s (maybe even mid 70s near the beaches) will result in strong instability with MLCAPE values up to 3000-3500 J/KG, perhaps up to around 4000 J/KG by the afternoon hours.
1222 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cold front has made very slow progress southeast this evening, and currently extends from near Miami in far northeast OK to Okmulgee into south central OK.
Sunday morning lows are in the lower 40s. Broad upper trough to the southwest this morning, broken into two waves stretching from CO into NE with the southern stream vort max centered from the southern plains through the Mississippi Valley. These storms have aligned well with short term model trends of the low level lift to reside south of the I-35 corridor, cutting down on widespread precip as far north as the I-70 corridor. High pressure axis shifts southeast into the area, calming winds this evening. Some high clouds present may temper the patchy frost potential over north central KS as morning lows are in the low 40s.
Upper ridge will shift northeast overnight and moisture advection will increase across the region. Ridge axis slowly shifts offshore with a more pronounced disturbance over Florida that will shift to the north into the area leading to increasing forcing across the area. Temperatures a bit cooler tomorrow with increase in clouds and precip chances but still in the upper 80s to near 90. Afternoon showers and storms will remain mostly diurnally driven as a cold front remains well west of the area.
1056 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon will be the cold front currently bisecting the area from near Prague to Norman to Wichita Falls area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible behind the cold front later this evening and tonight across central and northeast parts of the area, posing a risk for hail, but this development is a bit more uncertain and likely tied to what happens with the first round of storms this afternoon and early evening. Cold front will resume its southward progression late tonight with low stratus expected to develop behind it by tomorrow morning which may linger into at least early afternoon for central/northern parts of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front tomorrow, with highs only in the 60s across much of the area.
Low temperatures are on track to remain in the low to mid 70s.
Behind the surface cold front, the frontal inversion/stable layer will strongly curtail the damaging-wind (and tornado) risk. This instability, coupled with effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts, may support vigorous elevated convection tonight behind the surface cold front, with a primary risk of large (1"+) hail, especially with any elevated supercells. A gradual progression of clearing is expected on Sun afternoon into Sun evening as high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer lows are forecast for Mon night, but isolated/patchy frost again appears possible in this area. A surface cyclone is expected to consolidate across the southern Plains on Tue, then approach the region on Wed. The convection is mainly elevated over the cooler air behind the cold front that has just moved through Lansing.
1212 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold front will push slowly eastward into central Illinois tonight. surface based cells are trying to stay alive along the surface cold front just east of the Illinois River. 20z/3pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Michigan southwestward into northern Missouri. The airmass ahead of the slow-moving cold front will become moderately unstable, but will remain weakly sheared. The cold front will gradually shift eastward into Indiana Saturday night, resulting in an end to the rain chances.
A cold front crosses Sunday, with more storms expected. Conditions will start dry today as a high pressure slides east, allowing two disturbances to approach the area. The second system is a cold front approaching from the west, with showers and storms arriving to the Middle Ohio Valley this evening. The actual cold front crosses Sunday. Upper level ridge remains in place today, providing hot temperatures this afternoon, generally in the lower 90s lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s highest elevations of our northeast mountains. An approaching cold front brings showers and scattered storms into the area on Sunday, with more widespread showers and storms expected as the front progresses through the area Sunday afternoon through evening.
242 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold front will stall out in the Wabash valley early this morning.
144 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 Broad upper trough remains across much of NOAM, with anomalously cold air over much of the northern CONUS. Although it will be slightly warmer, some light snow accums can be expected once again in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Slightly warmer conds can be expected today, with highs in the 40s and some 50s.
147 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 Warm and humid weather will continue into Saturday in the breezy southerly flow ahead of a cold front. The threat for thunderstorms will spread from northwest to southeast with the cold front late Saturday through Sunday.
However, an outside shot for a few sprinkles or even a shower or two cannot be ruled out in west central Kansas later today as a series of H5 vort maxima eject out of a broader upper level trough axis in the Intermountain West, and through northwest Kansas in conjunction with the arrival of mid/upper level moisture associated with the system. With the help of increased cloud cover through at least mid-day, expect highs only up into the mid/upper 40s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower/mid 50s(F) farther southeast. Look for lows down into the mid/upper 30s(F) to the lower 40s(F) tonight.
Cold air advection has kicked into high gear early this morning as a complex low pressure system centered over SW WI continues to move off to the east and western Canadian high pressure slowly makes inroads into the Northern Plains.
High pressure building along the southeast Atlantic Coast will result in very warm southwesterly wind flow with 85H temps near +20 deg C.
Deep upper trough that has brought gusty southwest winds to the region today, will start to lift to our north tonight, remaining nearby through the weekend. As we head into the new week, we will see ridging start to take place and temperatures will start to warm, becoming above normal across the region. Winds will be out of the northwest early in the week and then become more southwesterly as the ridge starts to move off to our east.
(Today) Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough extending over the Plains, with ridging off the Atlantic Coast. A surface cold front extends from its parent low over northeastern Canada, south- southwestward through the Great Lakes and into northern Texas. Southwesterly flow will persist through the day as the TN Valley remains in between the trough to our west and the ridge to our east. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s once again, which is a few degrees above forecast convective temperatures.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 69 84 64 78 / 10 20 80 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 81 62 75 / 20 20 80 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 81 62 76 / 10 20 80 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 82 59 74 / 50 20 80 60 70.
This should allow for temperatures to drop to or even a couple of degrees below the freezing mark.
(Today and tonight) As of this hour, a cold front was located just north of Interstate 20. Further south, highs look to reach the mid to upper 80s across the Concho Valley, and possibly the low 90s along the I-10 corridor.
An upper trough will maintain a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers through Saturday. High pressure aloft will bring a dry day on Sunday.
Resultant low level northwest flow and cold air advection will gradually bring in an influx of cooler air, with 850mb temperatures dipping below zero for a portion of the area today, and for pretty much the entire area by tonight. Sunday's highs should be a smidge warmer as that colder core of 850mb air slowly retreats.
The most likely area of initial development looks to be along the initial cold front and east of the dryline in western north Texas. A secondary, but much stronger, cold front will move through the area on Saturday. This will translate to much cooler temperatures in the Big Country with highs only expected to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Will also see increasing TS near N terminals thru the day as a cold front moves in from the NW. All severe activity should come to an end around Sunday afternoon as the energy associated with this system pushes away from the state and the cold front move through the state. Ahead the cold front (This Afternoon and Saturday), expect high temperatures to be in the 80s and 90s with overnight lows in the 60s and 70.
For the upcoming day, the 500 mb trough will remain over the area. There is one short wave trough passing thru the fcst area at 08z and another elongated 500 mb wave upstream moving in southern SK and Manitoba. Sunnier and a bit warmer on Sunday as winds westerly 10 to 20 mph. After that, it looks like a very gradual transition to short wave ridging as a deeper trough heads into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. MVFR ceilings will be the expectation through much of the overnight period as stratus lingers in the wake of the recent cold front.
Light precipitation will likely linger across portions of northeast Oklahoma behind cold front but showers should begin to decrease in coverage by early afternoon. As cold front pushes into far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon, instability may be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms to redevelop before main convective line shifts east by early evening.
High temperatures today will be limited to the lower 50s. Mid level heights will gradually rise this afternoon as upper troughing slides east, so showers will wind down quickly by early evening.
the slow NBM, as strong high pressure pushes south into the area. After one more hot and humid day Saturday (until convection takes over), Sunday will be cooler and less humid.
Temperatures will be cool over the entire area with high pressure Sunday.
A very broad upper level trough and slowing moving surface cold front will begin to approach the area from the west early Saturday. The cold front will push through the area on Sunday and stall to our southeast.
The approach of a weak cold front, but subsequent stalling over the CRP CWFA, combined with rising precipitable water and daytime heating, will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The area is sitting under a longwave trough, and cold air aloft is allowing for numerous convective showers to strafe the region. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for most of the region by sunrise, including lower elevations east of the Divide. Those with sensitive outdoor vegetation will want to take steps to mitigate plants freezing. It will be another cold morning on Sunday, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than early Saturday. Cold air will be firmly in place on Saturday with the upper level trough stalled over the region.