Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
upper level high pressure will remain centered near the Four Corners. Moisture embedded in the upper level high along with an upper level wave rotating within weak upper level flow will set the stage for afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across and near the higher terrain. Overnight temperatures will dip into mid-60s across the plains and into the low to mid-50s across high valley areas. For the first full day of summer, the center of the latitudinal upper high is forecast by models to be south of the CWA, so relatively weak west to southwest upper flow will prevail. The best coverage is expected to be across and near the higher terrain. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain and 50s to lower 60s mountains.
228 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2016 High pressure will remain over the desert southwest this week. Winds will return to more typical afternoon and evening breezes with temperatures rising into the 80s across the Sierra valleys and 90s in the lower elevations. Ridge appears to hold in place through mid week with high temperatures climbing into the 90s in the lower valleys and in the 80s for the Sierra.
209 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 High pressure has moved south to a position over eastern North Carolina. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday.
200 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Showers/storms continue to fire along a cold front running from northwest WI southwest into western IA. Important as the GFS/NAM/EC all want to lift this front back to the north as a warm front late Tue night into Wed. With the low level thermodynamics north of that and a good moisture feed into and across the front, that would place at least the southern 1/2 of the forecast area under high/likely shower/storm chances. Will continue to keep the higher chances across the south.
Regardless, expecting the moderate moist southeast flow from yesterday over the Lower Mississippi Valley to get forced more to the southwest as today progresses and anticyclonic low level flow drops into the region from the north. Normally, especially considering the eastern periphery of the strong ridge overhead, this transition would signal more heat and little to no rain chances. Tomorrow the subsident effect of the sprawling ridge centered to our west should be more evident while southerly flow and thermal capping increases in western zones. In these western zones a few isolated afternoon tstorms will certainly be possible but the general expectation should be for dry conditions across the region with highs solidly in the lower 90s (and a mid 90 or two not beyond reason).
Although thickness values will be on the downward trend again this afternoon, today will be warmer with a lack of morning cloud cover.
407 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Hot weather remains on tap for the forecast for the next couple days as the upper level ridge meanders across the Southern Rockies.
314 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 An isolated shower or two continues west river this AM, and as the trof presses east, wouldn't be surprised to see some of this pass across our CWA, though the result is little more than a sprinkle.
A cold front was moving slowly eastward into northeast SD/west central MN this afternoon. Otherwise, the models all show cooler and drier Canadian air building into the region tonight and Monday as high pressure ridging builds in. This will bring mostly sunny skies and below normal temperatures to the region on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. This ridging will build east Monday night and Tuesday as the models all show a short wave trough over the Pacific Northwest lifting northeast and then east along the Canadian border through Tuesday night.
646 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 High pressure will prevail into mid week before shifting south and giving way to a trough of low pressure through late week.
649 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 South winds will bring increased moisture to the area today in advance of a cold front. As the cold front sweeps through later today there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and less humid conditions are expected Tuesday behind the front.
Moisture will increase from the southeast through Tuesday as the center of the high pressure system lingers near the Colorado and New Mexico border and an easterly wave passes south of New Mexico.
Upper ridge has built over the region and this will bring a dry and warmer day with highs well into the 80s today.
Deep layer ridging will prevail through the night. An unusual respite from summer's heat, high humidity, and afternoon thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday night, as warming, drying, sinking air aloft persist on the southwest flank of an upper- level trough off the eastern CONUS coast. At the surface, the ridge which is currently centered over NC will become centered over our forecast area by Tuesday morning. Despite the return to average summertime highs on Tuesday, the minimum surface dewpoints during the afternoon hours will "only" be in the lower 60s, which will make the air feel a little more comfortable than normal for late June.
High pressure will keep skies clear, winds calm and temperatures comfortable today.
355 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Midsummer-like pattern to prevail through this weekend, as an upper level height ridge prevails across the southern half of the contiguous U. This upper ridge will limit thunderstorms to isolated coverage and mainly to the peak heating portion of the day.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in record heat again Today. That said, latest models continued to show an increase moisture today and more so Tuesday as an inverted trough extending over southwest Texas and northern Mexico approaches from the east. The low levels will remain relatively dry, so high based thunderstorms with very little measurable rainfall can be anticipated mainly in the mountains this afternoon and evening.
247 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 A flat upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the main forecast element throughout the coming forecast period.
614 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Dry high pressure will remain over the region today.
244 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 High pressure has moved south to a position over eastern North Carolina. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday.
204 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Aviation A cold front will push through the Great Lakes Region on Monday, sparking a few showers and thunderstorms. The stage will be set for cooler temperatures and comfortable humidity levels to extend through at least the middle part of the week.
A cold front will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday bringing scattered thunder and showers overnight.
332 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Low pressure off the Southeast US coast will move north Monday remaining well offshore. High pressure will remain over the lcoal through today. A cold front will drop south across the Mid Atlantic states late Tuesday.
Tonight THROUGH Monday High pressure will dominate the weather through Monday. A weak dry cold front moved south up to near the continental divide over night and will erode through monday with increasing southwest winds spreading up from the southwest through the day.
305 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 The upper ridge continues to flatten over the Plains, giving us a slight break from the intense heat we saw last week.
A dry cold front will make its way across Idaho tomorrow, but showers will mainly be confined to the panhandle area.
336 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 A very large expansive upper level ridge has become established across the entire southern CONUS. The center of this ridge is focused over the desert southwest/southwestern plains, which will bring record heat to a large portion of the western United States. The CAP will remain in place today but as the ridge amplifies over the west and trough begins to dig into the Great Lakes on Tuesday we should see a weakening of this feature.
151 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 High pressure situated southeast of the area will allow for dry conditions across the region tonight. A cold front will approach the area on Monday and move through Monday night. A cold front will begin to approach the area on Monday and move through Monday night. Greater coverage in thunderstorm activity will be later Monday evening as the cold front moves into the region.
332 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 The convection developing ahead of the approaching cold front is projected to dissipate as it reaches near Knox and Stark counties. The projected arrival of the front after Noon will allow for plenty of return flow of moisture ahead of the front, as well as destabilization of the boundary layer as sfc dewpoints rise into the lower 70s closer to the front and sfc temps climb into the low 90s. There should be enough sunshine ahead of the front to support highs in the low 90s.
GKS Scattered convection will continue tonight along the cold front which will sag southward into central MO and southern IL. The threat for convection will continue on Tuesday as the upper level ridge continues to retrograde southwestward with the front becoming oriented from northwest to southeast and the best coverage of precipitation across northeast MO and west central and southwest IL.
Sunny and significantly warmer today as upper ridge builds northward through the Great Basin. Upper low just off the WA coast will move onshore this evening then due east along the US/Canada border Tuesday. The low's surface cold front will move east across Oregon overnight and Idaho Tuesday morning.
330 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2016 Building high pressure brings a return of above average temperatures to interior NorCal this week. The low pressure trough over the eastern Pacific will keep stronger high pressure centered to our southeast over the Desert Southwest.
645 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Another warm and humid day is in store for the region today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching cold front.
440 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Cold front that brought thunderstorms to the region yesterday will clear the MPX CWA early this morning, with a spectacular weather day expected as we get a low level air feed from a high dropping out of the southern Canadian Rockies. Tonight, the high coming out of Canada will drop down into Iowa. We would probably see some 40s if this high were not coming through on one of the shortest night of the year.
620 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today and tonight with the approach and passage of a cold front. probabilities as some isolated showers have already popped in vicinity of Zanesville with the encroachment of a weak trough and low level moisture. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase later in the day as the high pressure ridge completes erosion and a cold front approaches. The cold front is progged for passage tonight.
327 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Upper trough was moving across eastern Manitoba and western Ontario Canada with trailing energy across Minnesota this morning at 08Z. Therefore will keep the higher probability of storms in the northeast through the night. Highs today will top out in the lower 90s to upper 90s. Temps could be a bit warmer in the west but mid to upper 90s will likely hold again.
/issued 305 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/ The upper ridge continues to flatten over the Plains, giving us a slight break from the intense heat we saw last week.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent. The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the state during the short term period but the center of the upper high will be suppressed a bit to the west.
An upper level high pressure ridge squarely across Montana will help maintain warm and dry conditions across the area today.
330 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 High pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather through Monday. 500mb ridge will continue across the CWFA through Tuesday. High pressure at the surface will remain overhead today and tonight, but will begin shifting southward by late Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north.
The slowly meandering upper low off of the coast of Washington state should finally move east and into Montana by Tuesday.
457 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Another warm and humid day is in store for the region today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching cold front.
117 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through Monday, with high temperatures on Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will move east across the region Monday night, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
137 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Dry high pressure will remain over the region today.
/issued 827 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016/ Upper low continues to spin in the Western Atlantic as seen in water vapor imagery that has wrapped dry air aloft over the FL Peninsula while rare June cool front has pushed all the way to S FL.
436 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Drier air aloft has begun to spill SSW across the lower MS Valley this morning. around the ern periphery of the upper ridge that remains centered over the Desert SW into the Srn Rockies. which appears to be along an elevated 700mb NW to SE theta-e ridge that is only depicted by the 06Z NAM.
Flat upper level ridge will sharpen over the Rockies today. Upper ridge remains in place overnight. Lee trof strengthens across Montana with weak boundary warm front expected across the South Dakota plains. Strong cold front will slide through the western Dakotas Tuesday evening, with gusty northwest winds possible.
Coastal areas will see warmer temperatures too, but the coast is expected to remain relatively mild as light onshore flow predominates during the afternoon and evening hours.
232 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Hot and largely dry conditions will continue to prevail through the balance of the forecast period, as upper level high pressure remains in control of the region.
418 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Another warm and humid day is in store for the region today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching cold front.
450 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 South winds will bring increased moisture to the area today in advance of a cold front. As the cold front sweeps through later today there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and less humid conditions are expected Tuesday behind the front.
Tonight an upper level disturbance diving southeast out of the northern plains will suppress the aformentioned ridge to the south and west a bit and push/pull a cold front toward the region.
High pressure remains overhead as some high clouds move overhead from time to time while some afternoon cumulus form over higher terrain. Temperatures in the low to mid 100s will be common over southeastern Utah while most Colorado valleys will flirt with triple digits except the Grand Valley which looks to hit the low 100s this afternoon.
As this happens, upper level ridging centered over the Four Corners region and the central Plains will expand into the southeast conus. The center of this ridge will then gradually shift eastward into the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast States during the last half of the week.
321 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Surface cold front continues to sweep southward this morning, with little in the way of convection along it. Today: The frontal boundary will continue to settle southward, eventually ending up in the lower Missouri River valley by the afternoon. High pressure will slide southward into the Tri-State area today, leading to a cooler and very pleasant daytime hours.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in dry conditions through tomorrow except for the possibility of some diurnal development across the southwestern counties this afternoon. The next chance for measurable rainfall will be on Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches Central Indiana. Temperatures will start out above normal early in the period and then moderate to normal in the wake of Monday's cold front. The dry conditions will return by this evening and continue through the night with ridging aloft and lingering high pressure at the surface.
Low level upslope flow will bring in some of the highest dew points of the year.
RAP forecast soundings do show rather high elevated CAPE of around 1900 joules/kg if lifted from around 825 mb, with the 850 mb thermal ridge still across the area early this morning. The high res meso models are not consistent with the thunderstorms along the front. After the weak cold front passes, winds will become west/northwest.
Hot and mostly dry conditions expected through midweek as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. An approaching trough will bring slightly cooler temperatures for the end the workweek and the weekend. Astronomical Summer begins today and it sure gets off to a hot start! Persistent upper- level trough off the Pac NW coast and a strong Four Corner's High will bring a continued dry and warming southwest flow pattern over our area. Some mid- level moisture will be able to work around the west side of the high into the Great Basin from the Gulf of Mexico. This will interact with a weak cold front clipping the state. Tuesday will be a touch cooler but still quite warm across the north behind the front with highs still in the lower 90s.
Will go with temperatures close to the middle of the extremes with highs in the lower to mid 80s. As far as convection goes, with the cooler air at the surface and warm air aloft, expect most of the plains to be capped from convection today. Relief from the heat will be very brief as a strong ridge of high pressure will allow for temperatures to bounce back into the mid and upper 90s on Tuesday. The best chc of any tstms will be in and near the higher terrain in the late aftn/evening period. an upper level trough passing across the northern rockies will push a weak frontal boundary through the cwa.
Coastal areas will also see warmer temperatures but is expected to remain relatively mild as light onshore flow predominates during the afternoon and evening hours. A 600 DM upper level high is centered over the four corners area and extends westward into southern California. The hottest temperatures in the CWA will be in the Monterey and San Benito County interior since those areas are closer to the upper high. The high will build a little further west on Tuesday with temperatures warming a couple more degrees inland.
408 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Aviation sections updated A cold front will drop slowly into the region late today and tonight, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe. This boundary will sag to our south tonight into Tuesday as the upper level ridge weakens and northwest flow sets up across the area.
Normal highs in the valleys generally range between the lower to upper 70's.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak cold front stretching southwest across northern Minnesota to central South Dakota early this afternoon. Strong convection could be underway along a cold front moving east across Minnesota at the start of the evening. The cold front will exit the region by 15z, ending any precip threat over east-central and northeast WI.
1023 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Today: Strong and persistent deep layered ridging will continue across the forecast area. Tonight: Quiet weather will persist as mid level ridging and the surface synoptic pattern remain stagnant. Strong mid/upper level ridging directly over the area will continue into the second half of the workweek. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure dominates locally with troughing well inland.
1026 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Another very hot and humid day underway across Middle Tennessee with temperatures already in the mid 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. before an upper trough approaches at the end of the week.
1201 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will build in from the west today through tonight.
Increasing moisture is evident in water vapor imagery this morning as an upper level low moves steadily westward across the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. /issued 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The H5 inverted trough over the Gulf of Mexico will continue advancing westward through the day before getting generally washed out somewhere over the northern TX or LA Gulf coast. however high pressure will quickly return to shut off the tap.
/Issued 412 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/ An upper high over the Four Corners and Great Basin Region will maintain a more northerly or even northeasterly upper flow across the Panhandles through the latter half of the week.
Upper-level trough will move east of the Continental Divide by early evening, bringing scattered -TSRA to central/north-central MT.
The east to west oriented cold front, extending from southern Hudson Bay through central ND, will be slowly sinking into our area tonight.
This could impact the high temperature forecast and hold down highs across areas along and south of Interstate 94 today.
Highs today will be on average 12 degrees cooler, especially with the added clouds and showers south.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across central Florida this afternoon. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the Carolinas today.
Thick cloud cover and and rainfall within the area has kept temperatures several degrees cooler than earlier forecast. As for temperatures, due to the expected increased cloud coverage, rain, and more easterly flow, maintained "cooler" temperatures today in the lower 90s to upper 80s across the east and along the coast, while farther west, temperatures should range in the upper 90s to near 100.
With warm push at lower levels squeezing ahead of the boundary, could see zone of temperatures push into the lower 90s from south central SD toward east central SD and toward the KMML area this afternoon, with generally mid-upper 80s to the southeast. Orientation of shear vectors again suggests that storms should be more linear by the time they approach the lower Brule areas in the evening. One potential fly in the ointment would be the location of the ridge axis this morning, and will have to watch light wind locations for some potential patchy fog in areas from around KSUX eastward to KSLB. While the low-lvl lapse rates are somewhat questionable, cooling temperatures aloft do indicate steepening lapse rates in the afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/KG.
An upper level trough will cross the area late this morning into early this afternoon. Weak high pressure builds into the area tonight.
and this highlights the problems with the PoP forecast the next several days. Storms will be obviously concentrated in the higher elevations, but other convection will form along outflow boundaries whose locations will be impossible to determine more than a few hours in advance.
An upper level high pressure ridge is forecast to develop to the NW of Arizona later today and into Wednesday. This shifts the subtropical high pressure ridge into an unfavorable position for sustaining a northward push of deep subtropical moisture.
Off and on storm chances will continue until mid way through the weekend when upper ridging reestablishes over the area.
Strong heating this afternoon with highs reaching 90 to 95 and dewpoints holding in the low to mid 60s through the day. Introduced mention for severe storms most of north central Nebraska this evening which coincides with the highest pops of 50 to 70 percent.
Activity focused along weak trof and associated low level convergence.