Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
104 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. Will leave current forecast in the lower 80s for now, but this may have to be adjusted in later issuances. We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place across the southeastern United States. It looks like the ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through the day on Friday.
230 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016 The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring cooler and breezy conditions for the Memorial Day weekend, along with a good chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions of Washington.
Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 60s. Convection today so far has been suppressed by subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface convergence. Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower Michigan. The ridge currently over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through this evening. The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with weak mid level ridging moving back in.
344 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend.
Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts northeastward as a warm front. Warm air advection on Friday behind warm front which continues to move northward.
A ridge off the Delmarva coast will continue to produce a southerly low level flow over the Appalachians tomorrow.
Upper air pattern forecasted to be a trough in the Pacific NW and another trough in the central plains 00z Sat. There is also a broad 500 mb ridge over the ern U. This trough moves east into the Upper Great Lakes Sat night into Sun. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show two broad 500 MB troughs across the western and eastern U. The trough over the western U.
KALI/KCRP are struggling to get into VFR as plenty of moisture is coming in from the low levels with gusty south winds.
312 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016 Scattered showers, and possibly an embedded thunderstorm or two, will be possible this afternoon and evening over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Medium Weak mid level ridging has taken hold in the wake of the morning convection. Meso models such as the hrrr, rap and arw are showing a mostly dry scenario until perhaps later in the night when the low level anticyclonic flow breaks down somewhat.
This convection (some thunderstorms severe) is developing ahead of 1002 mb low pressure in far southeast CO with its frontal boundary extending northeast aross central KS and nw Iowa.
632 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend.
506 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
The precip is all moving north to south as our region is still on the backside of the upper-level low pressure system over far eastern MT. The low will continue to move into the Dakotas today, but enough moisture and instability remains for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this aftn.
Upper high was centered over Alabama which will keep convection on the periphery states this afternoon. Winds will remain from the south at around 5 to 10 kts as high pressure remains centered off the east coast.
642 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend.
These storms form as an upper level low moves into the Four Corners Region with an associated 80+ knot 250mb jet extending into southwest Kansas. Moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also be abundant with steep lapse rates found as you go up into the mid parts of the atmosphere. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 80s across west central Kansas to around 90 degrees along the KS/OK border. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the KS/CO border to lower 60s across south central Kansas. The upper level low moves eastward into the Central Rockies and west central High Plains Friday. At the same time, a surface cold front will drop into western Kansas shifting winds to more of a northerly direction.
Florida remains on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge this afternoon, with a weak upper low to our east. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic, with a weak area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda.
332 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 An upper low moving into southwestern Colorado continues to provide good lift over the forecast area as moisture continues to stream in on northeasterly low level flow. As the upper low moves closer, storm motions will become slower, increasing the flooding threat. Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue Friday morning with a few thunderstorms possible as the upper low moves over eastern Colorado. Upper level low pressure system will move into the Central Plains Friday night.
(1 - Weak convergence boundary from Ripley south to Kosciusko in Mississippi 2 - Convective activity developing along an outflow boundary from showers and thunderstorm activity developing over eastern Missouri) In between, over Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee, mesoscale models are similar keeping fairly strong subsidence in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere until later this afternoon.
As far as temperatures, should see some clearing this evening, but northwest winds stay up and should prevent temperatures from falling off too much, so expect lows generally in the lower-mid 20s. Decent mixing and a little low level warming Saturday should allow readings to climb above freezing along/west of the James River, with highs right around 30 for most of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa. With upper ridging to the west, sharp north to northwest flow aloft still exists Saturday night and Sunday.
A few pockets of wintry mix could remain possible over the next hour in the Hill Country but no impacts are expected as surface temperatures remain above freezing.
Low pressure will remain over Atlantic Canada through the weekend.
Deep dry W-NW flow to continue thru period, reinforced by an upper trough which will push the upper lvl clouds south of cwa durg the day sat, with westerly winds once again regenerating at 10 to 15 kts by around 28/15z. Overnight temperatures will be near the low 30s south of I-20, and the mid 20s north of the I-20 corridor. Saturday, temperatures will warm up by 20 degrees or more with temperatures near the lower 60s to the middle 50s with partly cloudy skies most of the day. This will be a great time to take advantage of the lower relative humidity and dew point temperatures versus what we normally see, along with light winds all outdoor activities will be nice. Saturday, another front will move through the area and bring a re-enforcing shot of cooler air and dry conditions.
Some weak and quick moving short wave energy will move across our area tonight as it moves through the base of the upper trough.
However, as temperatures fall to the freezing mark toward morning (and skies clear), bridges and overpasses may become icy and hazardous as previous rain freezes. /issued 342 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) Mid/upper level trough axis will swing across the area tonight, bringing a chance for some light precipitation to southern sections this evening. Temperature profiles support some snow mixing in with the rain for areas west of a San angelo to Sonora line this evening, with rain possibly becoming all snow across the higher terrain of Irion and Crockett counties by mid evening. Surface temperatures are expected to remain above freezing this evening (mid/upper 30s)where snow is possible, so no hazardous travel conditions are expected. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across the Big Country, to the lower 30s elsewhere.
after which will quickly diminish from west to east with passage of the low level thermal trof. most notably across the mountains this evening as a weak s/w trof passes thru. Accumulations in the near term will primarily be confined to the high terrain aside from some skiffs here or there in the Lowlands early this morning and once again tonight. Elsewhere 30s will be the rule with some 20s in the high terrain. Temps will drop back below freezing all places tonight.
1126 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Dry and cool conditions prevailed across the MO Ozarks / SE KS this afternoon as the region remains under the influence of a large area of high pressure centered over the northern Rockies.
Decent short wave trough is enhancing snow showers across the western half of Pa as of 06Z. Expect min temps to range from the low 20s over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to around 30F across the Lower Susq Valley. longwave trough.
220 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Strong ridging has built into the western half of the country setting up a predominately NW flow at all levels over the midwest and central plains. Multiple weak short waves will advect down the back side of the ridge Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning helping to create the potential for increased lift, cloud coverage, and possible flurries to light snow showers mixing into rain and snow in the afternoons. Little to no accumulations are expected over the area except for isolated areas in the NE portion of the CWA that may see a dusting Sunday morning before it warms above freezing.
1025 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 Upper level trough has finally dropped south of Colorado today, with mostly sunny skies across the area at mid-afternoon. Temperatures have begun to warm at non-snow covered locations along the I-25 corridor and across the plains, with a few 40s reappearing in the lower Arkansas Valley. On Sat, gradual warming trend continues as warmer air aloft crests the western ridge and spills southward through the Rockies. Even mountains/valleys will begin to see warmer temps, with 20s/30s replacing the teens and single digit of the past few days.
1240 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A strong low pressure system over eastern Canada will remain nearly stationary over the weekend maintaining cold northwest flow and occasional mainly lake effect snow showers across our area.
With upper ridge folding overhead, high pressure in firm control of forecast area. With anticipated continuation of low clouds/fog, kept overnight lows trended toward warmer guidance, and increased temperatures slightly in mountains above inversion levels.
1132 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Starting to see the low clouds in the northern Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota. By using a timing tool on satellite imagery, it shows the low clouds moving southward at about 30 knots. Should see flurries or a break in activity Sunday into Sunday night while some weak upper level ridging shifts over NW NoDak.
The high pressure ridge to our west will slowly move over Southeastern Idaho by Sunday and bring some drier air with it. The low level status should thin some or even move down valley/plain to the west under the influence of easterly winds near the top of the stratus layer.
Lower levels will be rather dry so outside of cloud cover most areas will be dry although the higher mtn peaks over zn 31 and 33 could see a few -shsn late this aftn into the early evening hours.
Upper pattern remains dominated by a large ridge over the west coast with low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.
257 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Aloft - A ridge offshore Baja California extended north across the Pacific coastal states to the Canadian Rockies. A long wave trough stretched from Quebec to the southwest Deserts. Surface - High pressure centered over the Intermountain West ridged down into the Gulf of Mexico and reached to the southeast U. The upper ridge pushes inland to the Intermountain West and the Great Basin while the southern end of the long wave trough separates and drops down to the Baja Peninsula. The main portion of the trough rotates from Quebec with the axis sweeping across the Gulf. The approaching upper trough.
will persist this morning as high pressure surges across the area. Drier air from upstream will gain the upper hand later today along with the mid level trough axis moving overhead, shifting flow aloft to a drier northwest direction.
after which will quickly diminish from west to east with passage of the low level thermal trof. most notably across the mountains this evening as a weak s/w trof passes thru. Accumulations in the near term will primarily be confined to the high terrain aside from some skiffs here or there in the Lowlands early this morning and once again tonight. Elsewhere 30s will be the rule with some 20s in the high terrain. Temps will drop back below freezing all places tonight. An upper level trough will move over the area Sunday and Sunday night.
316 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Upper trough axis to swing through the area today.
1117 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this morning has a broad trough of low pressure across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. A positive tilted trough of low pressure extended from the mid Mississippi valley west southwest to Baja California. West of this feature, ridging extended up the west coast into southwestern Canada. falls noted over the lower Ohio valley. The forecast area was situated between high pressure across the central Rockies with low pressure located over Quebec. Saturday will be similar to today with northwest winds and similar 850mb temperatures so have decided to go warmer than models are projecting for highs by a few degrees, as models were a little cool with highs today.
A strong upper ridge remains parked over the PacNW, and while some high clouds are bleeding through the ridge which may inhibit fog formation tonight, they shouldn't have much impact otherwise. The atmosphere will remain stable, therefore LIFR CIGS/VIS are expected again late tonight into Saturday morning for Roseburg, Medford and Klamath Falls, although I'm less confident in the lower conditions at Klamath Falls.
Further to the northwest, the latest water vapor and infrared satellite imagery was showing a short wave trough moving southeast across southern Manitoba. From late Saturday night into Sunday morning, another short wave trough will move quickly southeast through the region. The highest chances will be found west of the Mississippi River where up to a half inch of snow may fall.
1043 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 The weather pattern over the western half of the contiguous US will remain rather uneventful over the next 24 to 48 hours as high pressure reigns and active weather impacts the Great Lakes region. This means a whole lot of temperature inversions in snow covered valleys across eastern UT and western CO as long as high pressure persists over the region.
Upper level ridging persists over the West Coast tonight with north-northwest flow prevailing over Montana. Have also lowered overnight low temperatures, especially in the higher valleys of southwest Montana where temperatures have already dropped well below zero in a few locations. VFR conditions are expected through the current TAF cycle as an upper level ridge dominates the weather over the western US. expect mostly dry conditions as a ridge of high pressure moves over the region, along with increasing winds and a warming trend.
258 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 The region will be in between low pressure over southeastern Canada and high pressure over the Rockies this weekend with a couple of weak troughs or cold fronts moving through.
445 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Our region will stay between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure over the Rockies tonight through Sunday.
/issued 720 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017/ Quiet weather expected tonight with partly cloudy skies with cooler temperatures expected. Winds will remain northerly through the evening after the passage of yesterday's cold front. As the cold front shifts south, a predominant northwest to northeast wind around 15 knots will prevail through the weekend.
Upper level ridging persists over the West Coast tonight with north-northwest flow prevailing over Montana. Have also lowered overnight low temperatures, especially in the higher valleys of southwest Montana where temperatures have already dropped well below zero in a few locations. expect mostly dry conditions as a ridge of high pressure moves over the region, along with increasing winds and a warming trend.
259 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Deep upper trough focused across much of the conus with a few embedded vorticity maxima traversing through the mean flow.
Currently, under a sunny sky, temperatures are warming through the 20s into the lower 30s in some areas. Despite temperatures around, or perhaps slightly above freezing, several webcams across the central part of the state and along the interstate 90 corridor showing blowing snow phenomena. And, there is still some potential for freezing drizzle on Saturday where mid-level saturation/cooling is insufficient to support snow p-type, so continued the freezing drizzle mention. Snow accums that shook out in the forecast were generally less than an inch, and the freezing drizzle actually generated a hundredth of ice accum in the ice accum grids. Some uncertainty between models however, so limited this mention to the higher elevations of the prairie coteau for now, and kept a snow mention for the rest of the region.
Tonight, anticipate the mentioned clouds will limit radiational cooling somewhat in at least southern zones and lows down there were kept a degree or two warmer there in comparison to prior forecasts. For those specific folks the temps may not quite get down to freezing, although elsewhere anticipate lows at or a little below freezing. Confidence is high that tomorrow will be a sunnier day for a majority of the region as the upper level jet streak shifts further to the south and forces the higher stream of clouds more along the coast. A weak cold front associated with an upper level disturbance embedded in the NW flow will swing through the ArkLaMiss on Sunday.
1129 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Widespread VFR conditions are expected as high pressure dominates. Tonight Through Sunday A large ridge will stay put over the far western states, with low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.
Overnight temperatures will be near the low 30s south of I-20, and the mid 20s north of the I-20 corridor. Saturday, temperatures will warm up by 20 degrees or more with temperatures near the lower 60s to the middle 50s with partly cloudy skies most of the day. This will be a great time to take advantage of the lower relative humidity and dew point temperatures versus what we normally see, along with light winds all outdoor activities will be nice. Saturday, another front will move through the area and bring a re-enforcing shot of cooler air and dry conditions.
No snow accumulation is expected from these flurries as they are not expected to last long and temperatures remain above freezing this evening. West of there including the Nashville metro, snow accumulations are much more uncertain as surface temperatures and wet bulb temperatures will be warmer than areas further east, but a trace to 1/2 inch of snow appears possible.
Upper level trough will gradually shift from the Central Great Lakes tonight into our region Sunday-Sunday night.
Despite cloud cover, expect all areas to fall below freezing overnight due to continued cold air advection. A brief warm-up on Saturday as low level flow becomes southwest ahead of an approaching s/wv trof. Should see more sunshine on Saturday as the high clouds shift southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico and the air mass below 850mb remains relatively dry. Clouds will increase Saturday night and Sunday as a broad upper trof digs southward across the eastern United States. North Alabama will be on the tail end of several short wave trofs as they pass to the north of the area. Forecast soundings at Gadsden show saturated layer warmer than -10 celsius, which typically would not support wintry precipitation, and kept everything liquid.
1150 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Skies cleared this evening as the lower clouds over the area this afternoon moved off to the east. Temps under the clouds in IA are warmer than in areas where skies are clear, so would expect temps to steady out overnight and slightly rise. Based on persistence forecast, have included scattered flurries with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. Thermal profiles will remain cold enough for snow, with afternoon high temperatures remaining below freezing across the northern half of the CWA.
High pressure will dominate the areas weather with dry conditions for the remainder of the night. An upper level ridge will remain over the Interior Northwest through the weekend. A weak disturbance will flatten the ridge some Sunday and Sunday night. Advisories may be needed, but will hold off on issuing any advisories until locations with the lowest visibilities can be determined. Some very light flurries, drizzle or freezing drizzle may also be possible within the fog/low cloud area.
This would argue against reaching some of the cooler MOS forecast low temps overnight. Still, it will be cooler than last night with lows in the middle to upper 30s. This weakness in the mean flow will help carve out a trough across the Eastern US. This window for precip will be relatively brief and move eastward out of the area as the trough lifts north.
Somewhat tight surface gradient today between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west will bring breezy west to northwest winds to the forecast area today. Temperatures will be warm today as upper ridge to the west brings warmer air into the area. The ridge builds into Montana tonight and Sunday with warm and mainly dry weather.
844 PM PST Fri Jan 27 2017 High pressure will strengthen over the area and persist through the weekend. Forecast update to increase mention of light snow flurries across the northern third of the forecast area for tonight into tomorrow morning as weak disturbances overtop the ridge and cause the flurries to fall out of the widespread low stratus clouds lingering over Eastern Washington and North Idaho. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: High pressure with areas of stratus and localized fog remains the forecast challenge.
A positively tilted longwave trough was located from Texas to the eastern conus. Tonight: Fast moving mid/upper level disturbance will merge with the upper trough, with the trough axis moving across the eastern Gulf overnight.
254 AM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 Western CONUS ridge will slowly push east in the period, with perturbed flow remaining on the western periphery of the Great Lakes trough. Western conus ridge will continue to shift east Sunday, with warmer wx expected all places.
330 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 A resurgence of continental high pressure from the west will maintain cool and dry conditions over land areas today and Sunday.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1030 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, Water Vapor satellite trends show a longwave trough axis stretching from Quebec back through the Southwest United States. Mainly dry weather is expected to persist across the Mid-South through Saturday night with a weak upper level trough in place. Cool temperatures will persist with highs in the 40s to lower 50s and lows near freezing.
41 Continental high pressure will keep dry and chilly conditions over the region through the short term period. At the beginning of the period, the trough over the eastern US will provide a northwest flow in place to the area for the weekend.
328 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest today through tonight and will gradually drop south through the region on Sunday.