Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A large and broad high pressure pivoting through the Great Lakes Region, is helping to drive this front southward towards the Florida Keys. Current temps ahead of this front are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, the high driving this front south, will swing southeast and emerge over the western Atlantic Monday night.
/Issued 652 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ Cold front that moved through yesterday is now well south of the CWA. High pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through the remainder of the short term period.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ A beautiful day is occurring across the Mid-South as high pressure has settled over the region. The high will begin to shift east tonight which will allow winds to begin to turn around to the south on the backside of the high.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A duo of upper level lows well to the north over Canada and the other situated in the western US will slowly move east through the beginning of the week. Lows will be near freezing north and mid 30s south and while some stray showers could occur north of the Missouri River, the bulk of the POPs are expected to remain south of the Missouri as a cold rain with some snow flakes potentially mixing in around the morning hours. Once the upper trough traverses the Rockies, an upper ridge builds over the western US.
/Issued 227 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ A beautiful afternoon with plentiful sunshine is well underway as mid level ridging continues to build into the area.
510 PM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Upper level analysis shows broad upper ridging across much of the western US ahead of an upper trough slowly moving onshore over the West Coast. A warm front has stalled out across the southern third of the forecast area today, with southwesterly flow and temperatures near 70 along the NE/SD border. Cooler temperatures with northerly winds have persisted this afternoon north of the front. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday with many areas into the 60s to low 70s; warmest expected along and south of I-90. Similar to Sunday, cloud cover will increase during the day Monday, potentially keeping temperatures cooler than currently forecast.
740 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure continues moving away from the region as Canadian high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley builds eastward. Rain chances increase late in the week as an upper level trough moves into the eastern US. High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest overnight. Local radiation scheme gives mid 40s for lows at CAE/AGS which is too cool since we will not have ideal conditions but think the cooler NBM/MET guidance is better so will go close to that for lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region.
930 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A large area of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes overnight, offering dry weather and cool temperatures. As the high slides east early this week, expect continued dry weather and a warming trend.
659 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Mostly clear skies and gusty south winds have pushed temperatures into the 70s and even the low 80s across the area. Monday will be the warmest day of the week as we see very deep mixing and gusty southwest winds ahead of the upper trough deepening over the western CONUS.
Cloudy and cooler today with showers expanding into central NV later this afternoon into the evening.
A low pressure system to our west will move into the region on Monday, although the center of the low will be in Nevada.
Flow aloft will become increasingly southwesterly as a splitting trough drops into the western US pushing some weak ridging east. Overnight and through Monday the trough will continue to move east. With the rain tomorrow, expecting temperatures to be cooler, with highs only in the 40s to maybe lower 50s. With the cooler temperatures, conditions do not look as unstable, so not expecting any thunderstorm chances.
A dry and stable air mass will prevail, as 500 mb heights rise in association with a flat ridge over the western Gulf that will amplify as it moves east over the next 48 hours. At the surface, a high pressure ridge is nosing in from the north this evening.
934 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure will build over PA during the first part of the week resulting in dry weather and a significant warmup.
412 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure builds into the region through tonight. A weak warm front will pass through the area on Tuesday, otherwise high pressure will be in control through midweek.
A tranquil 24 hours is expected across the area with high pressure the dominant feature and mostly clear skies. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
155 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 A large area of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes overnight, offering dry weather and cool temperatures. As the high slides east early this week, expect continued dry weather and a warming trend.
Temperatures will generally be a bit warmer, keeping most of the precipitation rain but few flakes could mix in across the north. Overnight lows Monday will be in the low to mid 30s. After Monday, guidance remains consistent in advertising a warming trend as mean upper level height fields transition to a strong ridge across the western CONUS by the end of the week. Though periodic waves could impact highs with cloud cover and precipitation, confidence in warmer temperatures is high.
Flow aloft will become increasingly southwesterly as a splitting trough drops into the western US pushing some weak ridging east. Overnight and through Monday the trough will continue to move east. With the rain tomorrow, expecting temperatures to be cooler, with highs only in the 40s to maybe lower 50s. With the cooler temperatures, conditions do not look as unstable, so not expecting any thunderstorm chances. Reimer On Tuesday, an upper low will be moving southeastward over the southwestern US and away from our area. The moisture and lifting mechanisms associated with the low will also move away from the area, leaving our area with just a chance of showers south and east of Billings.
Deterministic guidance is several degrees cooler tonight than it was last night at this time with the GEFS showing roughly a 5 to 10 F run-to-run change with the ECMWF ensemble more or less unchanged.
Profiles are rather dry through a very deep layer with the only exception being minimal moisture in the low levels which could favor a few fair wx cu this afternoon, otherwise mostly clear skies will dominate.
Given all of these things it could be argued much of the area would get below freezing tonight. However we have moderate warm front heading our way. The result will only our NE 4 counties will see temperature below freezing.
330 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Synopsis/Discussion - Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night - Warm Tuesday, occasional chances for showers or storms - Cooler late in the week, unsettled weekend -- Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night -- First, reflectivity seen on radar this morning is almost entirely virga from altostratus above 6,000 feet. 850-700 moisture and warm air transport will occur earlier in the evening amid a southwesterly jet, with most models keeping a layer of saturated warm air lingering in that layer past midnight even as the core of the low level just becomes more westerly and focused south of Michigan.
This aforementioned front will remain sprawled out across the southern portion of SD with an elongated area of low pressure anchored on it. A western CONUS upper ridge still appears probable during the mid to late part of the week, with that steering flow transitioning to northwesterly. Heading into the weekend, this upper ridge shifts east over the middle of the country while another upper level trof takes its place over the western third of the CONUS/west coast area.
Drier weather and warmer interior temperatures will return by Tuesday and last through much of the week. Drier weather and warmer interior temperatures will return by Tuesday and last through much of the week. The core of the upper level trough has moved directly overhead this afternoon, supporting ongoing widespread shower activity across NW California. The bulk of the precipitation has now shifted inland as the trough axis clears the coast, and showers will continue to wind down in intensity through this evening as the upper low departs to the east.
As a result, have gone with the warmer guidance, as we typically run warmer than we think under these mesoscale situations. To the east, slightly âcoolerâ highs will prevail, but only by a few to several degrees. Dewpoints will continue to decrease through the day as the low level flow still maintains a downslope component to the wind vector.
A large and broad upper ridge located mostly over the central states amplifies while shifting into the eastern states ahead of a western states upper trof. Lows tonight range from around 50 well inland to the mid to upper 50s at the coast, then lows Monday night range from the mid 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Highs on Monday range from the upper 70s near the coast to mostly the lower 80s inland, then highs on Tuesday range from around 80 near the coast to the lower to mid 80s inland.
335 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Synopsis/Discussion - Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night - Warm Tuesday, occasional chances for showers or storms - Cooler late in the week, unsettled weekend -- Slight chance of a storm with hail Monday night -- First, reflectivity seen on radar this morning is almost entirely virga from altostratus above 6,000 feet. 850-700 moisture and warm air transport will occur earlier in the evening amid a southwesterly jet, with most models keeping a layer of saturated warm air lingering in that layer past midnight even as the core of the low level jet becomes more westerly and focused south of Michigan.
Skies clear overnight, with dry, warmer, and breezy weather following through the remainder of the week. The broad upper level trough presently over the interior northwest splits off and drops further south into the Great Basin. Thus, skies begin to clear overnight, with a trend toward warmer and drier weather following through the remainder of the week ahead.
127 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will build over PA during the first part of the week resulting in dry weather and a significant warmup.
322 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas today, then drift toward Bermuda through mid-week. Northerly winds gusting between 20 and 25 mph will become light out of the north and northeast tonight and overnight with a weak back-door cold front and high pressure settling in across the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. A sub-tropical ridge will slowly build from the mid-Mississippi River Valley east into the Tennessee Valley by Monday night, increasing H500 heights from 572 DM to 582 DM over central NC. Subsidence will help increase temperatures on Monday, with highs in the low 70s N to upper 70s S. Ridging will also help create clear skies through Monday night.
337 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 A pair of cold fronts will drop through today marking and end to the record breaking high temperatures we've had over the past few days. A line of showers and thunderstorms have sank south of the CWA border over the course of the morning and afternoon and dry air reinforced by NW flow aloft is bringing cooler temperatures and drier air steadily south across the region.
The trough will continue to move east today. Although the majority of the energy associated with the trough will be south of the area, precip will extend across much of the region. The trough will continue southeastward away from the area Tuesday, with precip generally clearing out of southern and easternmost zones Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs mainly in the 40s.
High pressure builds in this afternoon and temperatures will respond accordingly.
This will translate to another day of dry conditions as southerly flow advects an even warmer airmass into the area. The aforementioned upper ridge axis will become centered over the area by Tuesday, and large scale subsidence will keep dry conditions in place through the remainder of the short term forecast. Further west, our potential next weather maker will be a trough digging into the western Plains resulting in active weather in these areas.
(Today and tonight) Breezy to windy, today as a strong lee trough continues.
500mb Ridging along with strong southerly winds will make for an unseasonably warm day today, with highs reaching into the low to possibly mid 80s (see climate section for record highs today). Meanwhile, a strengthening low pressure system in the lee of the rockies today will shift to along the Kansas Nebraska border tonight. The pressure gradient between the departing high and this low will make for windy conditions.
As the low moves closer to our region Tuesday, breezy conditions can again be expected across the entire PAH fa. High temperatures will climb into the lower 80s as clouds increase from the west during the afternoon.
1030 PM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Upper level analysis shows broad upper ridging across much of the western US ahead of an upper trough slowly moving onshore over the West Coast. A warm front has stalled out across the southern third of the forecast area today, with southwesterly flow and temperatures near 70 along the NE/SD border. Cooler temperatures with northerly winds have persisted this afternoon north of the front. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday with many areas into the 60s to low 70s; warmest expected along and south of I-90.
Pretty quiet across the region early this morning as upper level ridging was dominating across most of the forecast area. Across northern portions and into SD, however, some PV advection and the nose of the low level jet were interacting with a surface boundary to produce some light rain showers.
While temperatures have dropped off in some locations into the low to middle 30s, an area of clouds has developed and is moving across a large portion of the area. This southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures to the region and have high temperatures in the 80s.
The forecast area is pinned between a warm front well to the north in Nebraska and a dryline positioned roughly from las animas to east of Elkhart and into the Panhandles. Temperatures just out ahead of the dryline to just behind it have reached the low and mid 80s already at 3 pm. Still the higher elevation far western counties could remain around that 50 degrees mark with upper 40s fairly common from garden city westward. A cold frontal boundary will then move through sometime Tuesday late evening. There is some indication of convection along the strongly forced low level convergent surface cold front as well.
Another warm day is in store across South Texas with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s across the Coastal Bend and the mid 90s out west. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 70s with low level stratus building back into the region. On Tuesday, upper level ridging overhead will begin to give way to a deepening low pressure system across the Western US.
/Issued 652 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ Cold front that moved through yesterday is now well south of the CWA. High pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through the remainder of the short term period. In terms of temperatures, should be not too hot, not too cold, but you definitely won't need a light jacket with temps reaching into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday.
Did go a few degrees cooler across the northwest Sandhills where models are suggesting some high cirrus clouds may move into the area by afternoon as the front begins to move into the area. The one main concern in the lower confidence is that winds aloft are only around 25 to near 35 kts at 700 mb. Pressure gradient trends are also not supportive of strong sfc winds, continuing to aid in the lower confidence in winds for Monday afternoon. A cold front moves through the area bringing much cooler temperatures for Tuesday as highs will around 20 to near 30 degrees cooler, max Ts in the 50s and 60s. High pressure builds in across the southwest CONUS through the week, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of the forecast period.
319 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 06Z surface data has a strong low pressure in western Nebraska with high pressure over the Great Lakes. An implied warm front ran east from the low across Nebraska and then southeast into Missouri. South of the warm front dew points were in the 40s and 50s. High pressure over the Great Lakes with a strong storm system in the Plains will result in very windy and warm temperatures across the area today.
404 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will build to our north today. A warm front will push north across the region tonight into Tuesday morning.
201 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure builds in from the north today and gradually shifts towards the east coast. A cold frontal passage will occur towards the end of the work week, and could bring more widespread rain. Clear and quiet night in progress with high pressure building in from the NW. NW winds gradually become west and then eventually southerly later today as high pressure eases east. We'll warm up into the 60s and 70s by afternoon, with cooler readings in the mountains, and warmer readings nearing 75 degrees over southside VA and the Piedmont. 850mb temperatures will be in the 8-10C range today before ramping up tonight as an elevated warm front pushes by.
437 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Surface ridging is over the central and southern Appalachians early this morning, while upper level ridging is centered over the Mississippi Valley. The ridging will gradually shift eastward with time. The ridging building in aloft will keep our skies mostly clear and allow for a warming trend as the sun works on the atmosphere each day. With a greater surface pressure gradient in place, stirring on ridges will result in notable ridge/valley temperature differences.
/Monday through Tuesday/ Upper-level ridging across the region to maintain dry conditions through much of the short term period. Skies will become overcast Tuesday as moisture increases through a greater depth throughout the column as upper-flow becomes southwest in the wake of the departing upper- ridge. Temperatures during the short term period to range from highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s.
Upper ridging begins to build in from the west tomorrow with temperatures climbing into the 80s for a large part of the area. The upper ridging will begin to slide east Tuesday night as an upper low slowly ejects out of the southwest US. The upper low will struggle to make much eastward progression.
An upper level trough will remain over the region tonight and then begin to shift eastward late Monday. In the bottom of the trough is a closed low circulation over northern California which will move into northern Nevada Monday. The one exception will be in central Oregon where some moisture wrapping around the closed low will continue to produce some showers overnight. On Monday with the upper level trough beginning to move eastward most of the showers will be over the eastern mountains and there will again be a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, upper ridging will begin to build into the region from the west, with winds aloft become northwesterly. For those waiting for warmer temperatures, this is your week. Monday into Tuesday, with a 5h ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico north through the lower Great Lakes. However, the ridge will cap off any potential for afternoon convection. Highs Monday will be in the lower 80s, and Tuesday in the lower to perhaps middle 80s after overnight lows in the 50s.
103 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 High pressure will usher in clearing skies and seasonable conditions today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain in the north to northwest edge of 500 mb high pressure that will linger over the Bay of Campeche. A persistent breezy onshore flow, produced by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over Mexico, will generate slightly above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures.
Today Through Tuesday Night A large upper ridge is over the center part of the country this morning and will continue to move east. This upper ridge will be centered over the east coast Tuesday with southwest flow returning to Arkansas. An upper low over the west Tuesday will move into the desert southwest Tuesday night. High clouds will increase as they come over the upper ridge but abundant sunshine is still expected. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and Tuesday night lows will be warmer in the mid to upper 60s.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 57 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 55 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 76 56 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 51 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0.
435 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Surface ridging is over the central and southern Appalachians early this morning, while upper level ridging is centered over the Mississippi Valley. The ridging will gradually shift eastward with time. The ridging building in aloft will keep our skies mostly clear and allow for a warming trend as the sun works on the atmosphere each day. With a greater surface pressure gradient in place, stirring on ridges will result in notable ridge/valley temperature differences, as well as valley fog.
Warming trend to continue through Tuesday, with dry conditions as high pressure remains. Overnight we will remain fairly clear and moisture levels will creep up as southerly flow begins to work into the area on the backside of the high pressure.
319 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 A quiet and warm week shaping up for the region with W/NW flow aloft in place over the region this morning as ridging builds over the central CONUS before gradually shifting eastward through the week. At the surface, high pressure is centered to our north and will gradually slide into the western Atlantic by Tue-Wed. Ridging aloft gradually breaks down late in the week as a trough digs from Canada into the eastern CONUS, dragging a cold front into the Southeast bringing the potential for some unsettled weather and increased rain chances.
338 AM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 A transient ridge will shift over and across the Midsouth today and tomorrow. Dew points will surge into the low 60s tomorrow and mid 60s by midweek. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Main forecast concerns in the short term are on precipitation type tonight over norther Clark and Taylor Counties, where a wintry mix or light freezing rain is possible tonight. Forecast soundings shows the surface cooling below freezing before this happens. This could lead to some freezing rain, especially on elevated objects such as trees but icing is expected to light. Ensemble members showing quite the spread on whether any icing would occur, but even the highest member suggests only around 1/10th inch of icing.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ The next trough to affect the area has been moving on shore today on the west coast and will move farther inland on Monday. Winds aloft will begin to back to the southwest in advance of this trough through the day on Monday. Wind will ease overnight Monday into Tuesday as a strengthening upper level low approaches from the Dessert Southwest.
431 AM EDT Mon Apr 26 2021 Quiet and warm for most of the week as a strong upper level ridge and high pressure system dominate the pattern.