Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will slide southward across Kansas today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop over southern Kansas mainly for this afternoon into tonight. The low level jet will respond with increased moisture transport ahead of this system, which should generate elevated showers/storms late Friday night mainly for central Kansas and areas to the north.
515 AM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cold front continues to make its way through the forecast area, with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near the front early this morning, mainly in northeast Colorado.
and Friday Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across central and northeast Wisconsin early this morning associated with weak isentropic lift ahead of an approaching low pressure system across the upper Mississippi Valley region. The other concern is severe potential given the high amount of shear available with bulk shear values of 40 to 50 knots. Showers will slowly end from west to east on Friday as the low moves away from the western Great Lakes. In its wake much cooler temperatures are on tap as highs are limited to the 60s.
Some showers and thunderstorms may begin to move into our northwestern zones by the late afternoon as the cold front approaches the region. The cold front is currently draped from southcentral CO across southern NE to southwestern MN. Given the lack of meridional flow aloft and relatively low pressure rises there is reason to believe that the front will be slow to push through the FA and struggle to do so.
Latest H5 analysis depicts a trough axis extending from the Great Lakes region southward, through the Mid-South, to the Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough will not move very much on Thursday, remaining stationed over the region. A cold front will develop in association with this feature, becoming a focal point for convection for the local region by Friday afternoon. This will impact temperatures as well, with highs in northern locales only in the lower 80s on Friday.
A cold front crosses Friday and Friday night. Cooler and less humid for the weekend. Surface cold front starts to approach the region overnight and into Friday morning, but any action with the front will hold off until after the near term period later in the day on Friday. Convection associated with an approaching cold front will arrive to southeast OH by 12Z Friday.
A strong upper level ridge will remain over the western U. The ridge axis currently remains offshore, and looks to remain there through tonight as well. Temps will continue to be very warm to hot, though the smoke/haze will shave a degree or two off the high temps. Still, will continue the current heat advisories due to warmer overnight low temps.
This all due to the next short wave moving in NW-SE flow aloft rounding the mid level trough axis. Will expect coverage to increase and gradually shift farther south through the day as the trough continues to move east as well. With the expected increase in cloud coverage and rain, temperatures will be cooler compared to yesterday with temperatures ranging in the lower to mid 90s. Although temperatures are expected to be cooler, the increased moisture will still allow for heat index values to rise to 105 to 109 degrees across portions of the southern Coastal Bend.
529 AM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Strong upper ridge is sitting across the far western CONUS and just offshore across the eastern Pacific. Upper trough remains centered over the MS valley with NW flow aloft over the northern plains. Surface obs show high pressure over eastern MT/western Dakotas. Temperatures will feel much cooler today with highs in the 60s across the Black Hills and 70s over the plains. High pressure will slide east of the region Friday with southeast flow developing. The area will see warmer temps with highs in the 70s over the Black Hills and 80s over the plains.
High level clouds are still present in many spots which is helping to trap in some of the heat and keep temperatures warmer than they usually are for the early morning.
Wildfire smoke will persist this week as smoke from fires in British Columbia and Montana become trapped under an area of high pressure and light winds.
Continuing the higher rain chances for this afternoon region-wide. Upper air maps indicate large trof across the central and eastern portions of the U. One of the stronger perturbations noted is currently approaching the region at this time and interacting with the coastal surface trof to produce showers and thunderstorms generally along and east of a line from east of Alexandria southwest to near Port Arthur.
629 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cold front over Nebraska and Iowa is approaching far northwest Missouri early this morning. A large area of high pressure will quickly build in from the north behind the front tonight. Cooler and drier air associated with this system will bring autumn-like temperatures to the area for Friday with highs only in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the lower 50s.
Thanks to a ridge extending from the Atlantic towards Florida this morning, winds will be from the southeast today and will remain southeast through the weekend. The low temperature thus far today at the Key West International Airport is 85 degrees.
In the upper levels, high pressure ridging extends from south of Bermuda west-southwest over the Bahamas, while weak troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley. On the surface, high pressure ridges over southern Florida, while a weak stationary frontal boundary extends over northern Florida. Rain chances are expected to remain around average for the summer time pattern with 30-60 POPs expected each day through the period, with the highest coverage north of the I-4 corridor. Temperatures are also expected to remain seasonal with daytime highs in the lower 90's inland and upper 80's near the coast.
Upper air maps indicate large trof across the central and eastern portions of the U. One of the stronger perturbations noted is currently approaching the region at this time and interacting with the coastal surface trof to produce showers and thunderstorms generally along and east of a line from east of Alexandria southwest to near Port Arthur.
1027 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cold front currently across southeast Kansas and northwest Oklahoma this morning.
404 AM PDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Warmer this week with strong high pressure building over the Southwest.
The low clouds are expected to burn off in a few hours. Upper pattern during the period will dominated by an expanding SW conus/northern Mexico ridge with the ridging over the SE weakening and becoming virtually non existent. Latest surface analysis shows shows a frontal boundary slicing through the nations mid section and into low pressure moving through the Canadian prairie provinces.
The warm and cold fronts will remain south and west of the Northland so these features will remain a focus for further storm development through the day.
Temperatures will remain warm with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 70s.
912 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Upper low is now north of ND and continues to drift northeast. Isolated showers will linger into the morning before diminishing by the afternoon as the upper low responsible for our weather the last couple of days continues to gradually lift off to the north and east. Temperatures will max out in the low to middle 70s today with slightly warmer temperatures expected for Thursday as heights build aloft.
Currently, stacked low pressure lifting slowly northeast into far south central Canada. Embedded waves rotating around the low coupled with lingering instability and shear continues to contribute to convection, mainly northwest and central areas. Stacked low pressure lingers over far south central Canada through tonight.
The highest rain chances today should be across the interior (60%), especially across the south. Axis of subtropical high pressure ridge will settle over the waters.
High pressure over the northern Gulf will gradually settle south into the southern Gulf through the weekend, with light winds and seas continuing.
/issued 339 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ An upper low is over North Dakota/southern Canada while upper ridging is over the south central and southeast parts of the country. Upper ridging will be across the southwest and south central parts of the country on Thursday. Temperatures will remain hot with highs a degree or two warmer than today.
A backdoor cold front will push southward along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and extend across portions of North Carolina during the day Thursday. Additional storms are then expected along/ahead of a backdoor cold front and/or associated outflow during the late afternoon/early evening, that will settle south into the area overnight.
932 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Large Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Thursday.
948 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure builds into the region from southeastern Canada today into Thursday.
736 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over wrn North Dakota resulting cyclonic sw flow from the cntrl plains through the upper MS valley to wrn Lake Superior. At the surface, sse flow had increased through thregion ahead of a trough over the ern Dakotas and a warm front through sw WI. Looks like there's an outside shot at a stronger storm or two over the E Thu afternoon as a cold front moves through, but not expecting any severe storms.
With moist southerlies continuing withing the low and mid levels do expect to see development of a few showers over the southern portion of the area this morning, and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon across the entire area. The upper level low that has been sitting over the region has drifted into the Florida panhandle this morning. high pressure anchored over the four corners has built across Texas and into Louisiana and this will be the major player over the next several days.
We then expect to see a lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity until the atmosphere recovers ahead of the approaching cold front.
525 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front over the far eastern Dakotas, with low pressure over northeast ND. Some of the short range convective models are showing isolated showers this afternoon from parts of northeast WY to the northern Black Hills area as steep mid level lapse rates develop and weak energy continues to wrap around the upper low to the north. Highs will range from around 70 over northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills to the low to mid 80s over south central SD.
Increased cloud cover over the north east and a slightly cooler air mass will keep daytime highs in the low 70s over the Devils Lake basin while remainder of the CWA will see some sun and climb into the upper 70s northeast to low 80s across the south. Cooler air advection will bring breezy west winds through the day, especially over cntrl ND. This will also keep both Thu and Fri generally in the 70s for daytime highs, although far southern zones should climb into the lower 80s. A short wave ridge in the NW flow aloft moves over wrn NODAK by 15Z Fri and should keep dry conds from Thu night through noon Fri.
As the cold front and its associated convection activity moves eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley, quieter weather conditions will dominate the area today. Fairly good agreement that this jet max will dig a trough across the Northern into Central Plains and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
North of this a large closed low off the coast of British Columbia extends a finger like trough through Washington and northern Montana which curls north into southeastern Saskatchewan. A weak standing ridge is beginning to form and cut through the trough over the front range of Montana and Alberta. Tonight through Thursday: As the standing ridge develops over the front range.
Winds will be much lighter today compared to the past couple of days but high temperatures will still remain cooler than normal.
High temperatures today will range from the low to upper 90s. Out ahead of the dryline in-conjunction with a low pressure perturbation in the 500 hPa flow, this will help to enhance thunderstorm chances across parts of the central and all of the eastern Panhandles.
658 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Upper low is currently lifting across western ND/eastern MT with the impulse that helped generate storms Tue afternoon/evening lifting over west-central KS. At the surface, the cold front extends from north central Nebraska into western portions of KS. This will push a cold front south, moving through the forecast area Sat night into Sun morning. Scattered -SHRA that are moving ENE ~35kts across Ern KS will exit these areas by 13Z, however isolated TSRA may redevelop across SE KS this afternoon as a weak SE-moving cold front approaches. The weak cold front will cause a S/SW-NW wind shift in most of Central KS this morning but sustained speeds should not exceed 15kts.
A gradual decrease in reflectivity and lightning, and warming cloud tops, suggests that the line is weakening as it encounters the upper level ridge and increased capping (+12 C at 700 mb). Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, but 0-3 km helicities of around 200, strong low-level CAPE and the presence of the warm frontal boundary support a small tornado threat as well. A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight, continuing the chance of thunderstorms overnight, and possibly into early Thursday morning in far eastern WI.
Deeper moisture has moved into the region as mid-level ridging remains overhead which will only strengthen the next 24-36 hours.
733 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 An offshore high/inland trough pattern will continue today with a weak front approaching from the north.
A few clusters of shra/tsra along the coast this morning with cloud cover initially confined to southeast of the I-65 corridor closer to a low level trof axis. A weak pressure trof at mid and high levels remains in place from the southeast to the central Gulf coast with clouds exhibiting weak cyclonic circulation. 0 inches coupled with the trof axis nearby and daytime instability sets the stage for what looks to be a repeat performance in the development of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Forecast area remained between mid-level subtropical high pressure over northern Mexico and upper low rotating northeast into Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
1004 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Southerly flow around a Bermuda High pressure system is continuing to transport warm/moist Gulf air into the forecast region. With moist southerlies continuing withing the low and mid levels do expect to see development of a few showers over the southern portion of the area this morning, and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon across the entire area. The upper level low that has been sitting over the region has drifted into the Florida panhandle this morning. high pressure anchored over the four corners has built across Texas and into Louisiana and this will be the major player over the next several days.
Very dry air will also stick around through the end of the week which should help swamp coolers keep up with the heat.
843 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Current model data indicates an upper level short wave trough will deepen over northern Yuma County beginning at 6 PM tonight. At the surface a trough will be in the same vicinity, helping to focus the lift from the upper level feature. A weak nose of the low level jet will also be in close proximity.
Current visible satellite reveals mostly sunny conditions and eroding mid-level clouds across the western Florida Straits and across the Lower Keys, with billowing cumulonimbus farther up the island chain, which stretches in linear fashion off the coast of Naples through the Bahamas. Temperatures range from the low 80s (in places with recent rains) to the mid and upper 80s (especially across the Lower Keys). This should only improve through the early weekend, with pressure gradients relaxing across the island chain as high pressure retreats east and south. On this date in 1957, the high temperature in Key West hit 94 degrees.
Thunderstorms are not expected due to a relatively strong midlevel cap redevelops as the subtropical ridge centered over the Mexican state of Chihuahua expands northeast over South Central Texas. The ridge will intensify (5940 m at 500 mb) and expand further northeast on Thursday, allowing highs to be 1-2 degrees higher than on Wednesday. Low clouds should lift a bit earlier tomorrow with low level moisture decreasing a bit to prevent heat indices from increasing further despite warmer temperatures.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates upper- level low centered over eastern MT, with 80-95kt jet streak extending from southern AZ/NM through western KS/NE into central SD/ND ahead of the low. 850mb low was centered in eastern CO and in eastern MT, with trough axis/dryline extending from central SD/central NE toward southwest KS/OK-TX panhandles and into west TX.
A more zonal pattern will develop today as an upper low lifts into the southern Canadian provinces and a subtropical ridge remains anchored across the souther tier of the U.
The region-wide warming trend is forecast to continue today into Thursday as high pressure builds over the southwestern portion of the country.
with the Bermuda high pressure ridge located over central FL area and into western ATLC. PWATs per model analyses continued elevated at about 2 inches, with the highest deep layer relative humidities located from extreme NE Fl to coastal SE GA. with convection aided by weak upper level west-east trough dropping southward from central GA.
728 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure builds into the region from southeastern Canada today into Thursday.
Upper low over North Dakota this morning as seen in IR. Little waves moving underneath upper low. Highs today in the 80s with cooler air dropping south out of Canada.
Another warm and humid morning for Middle TN with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1203 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Large Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Thursday.
The highest rain chances both days will be south of Interstate 4 where the gradient flow will be a bit more easterly, allowing for a stronger sea breeze collision close to the west coast.
Near term: recent rainfall has resulted in saturated conditions in the low levels. The upper pattern over the next few days shows an upper low lifting across North Dakota into souther Canada where it will sit and spin during the course of the short term. The cooler mid level temperatures, combined with winds shifting to the west, will result in favorable mixing conditions. This will also help mix out the low level humidity.
842 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure builds into the region from southeastern Canada today into Thursday.
926 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure will build south from Canada today through tonight and will shift offshore on Thursday.
1135 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure builds into the region from southeastern Canada today into Thursday.
running about 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. Most areas should top out in the lower 90s. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 70s.
/issued 339 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ An upper low is over North Dakota/southern Canada while upper ridging is over the southcentral and southeast parts of the country. Upper ridging will be across the southwest and southcentral parts of the country on Thursday. Temperatures will remain hot with highs a degree or two warmer than today.
1057 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front over the far eastern Dakotas, with low pressure over northeast ND. Some of the short range convective models are showing isolated showers this afternoon from parts of northeast WY to the northern Black Hills area as steep mid level lapse rates develop and weak energy continues to wrap around the upper low to the north. Highs will range from around 70 over northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills to the low to mid 80s over south central SD.
Between sunrise and the early afternoon the low level jet will likely decrease due to diurnal mixing, and thunderstorms should go on the decline until early to late afternoon. Another question is whether the broad mid/upper trough provides enough forcing for storms to form later this afternoon/evening. Given the high instability strong updrafts would be likely with any storm that can form. The highly unstable environment over the eastern Plains remains in place, with around 4000+ J/kg of instability.
524 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Vigorous upper level trough continues to spin across the Mid Miss/Western Tenn Valley this evening with an expansive CU/AC field on its west flank. /issued 304 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017/ Gusty nw winds behind stg cold front late yesterday eve meeting marginal LWA criteria. Continued nw flow aloft with stg western conus ridging creating enough omega blocking to keep area dry for about a week. Pacific airmass will finally sneak underneath an even larger upper low that will be located well off upper Pac coast, with a weak front and perhaps some Pacific moisture to augment gradually increasing southerly low lvl flow.
258 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Rain continues to wrap around an upper low now centered over northeast AR affecting parts of the eastern cwfa. The upper low will move off and the rain will finally end early tonight.
Thus, aftn highs in the mid 60s over sw AR to the lower 70s over the east TX lakes appear to still be on track.
A deepening low pressure system just south/southwest of the forecast area early this morning is expected to push northeast across the Middle Mississippi Valley today into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight. Some of the rain may be heavy at times, especially in the deformation zone to the north and northwest of the low's track. However, forcing northwest of the low's track should enhance precipitation efficiency later today and tonight across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The higher amounts are forecast along and north of a line from Clearwater Lake to Jackson in southeast Missouri to Harrisburg and Mount Carmel in southern Illinois. Winds later today will pick up from the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph, on the back side of the low across mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Warmest temperatures of the year so far will occur through Friday as an area of high pressure drifts east across the Great Basin.
Further cooling is expected into the weekend as an upper level trough affects the district.
The Northern Rockies will continue to see well above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, thanks to a building high pressure. A moist southwesterly flow will develop overnight ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure.
245 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 WV imagery this afternoon showing a well amplified upper level ridge situated over the wrn CONUS with mostly clear skies prevailing across the region. broad high pressure was in control from the Dakotas to the srn Plains. The upper ridge building in from the west will ensure high and dry conditions prevailing tonight and Friday. MAV/MET numbers are pretty similar as well as reasonable with lows tonight in the low 40s and Friday highs in the low/mid 70s.
321 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 A strong upper level ridge currently over the Rockies will gradually push its way eastward tonight and Friday, with the eastern edge of the ridge reaching the western high plains by Friday evening. Warmer air will continue to get pulled into the region, with 925mb temps in the +20 to +25 deg C range and 850mb temps +13 to +17 deg C range Friday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 40s, with highs on Friday in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The period begins with an upper ridge over the central CONUS with much above normal temperatures expected.