Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of the advancing cold front from south central IA thru western MO into northeast OK. AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Currently VFR conditions with a breezy southwest wind ahead of an approaching cold front that stretches from near Des Moines, IA to just east of Kansas City, MO to Tulsa, OK. Some of the thunderstorms along the cold front will likely become severe with large hail, downburst wind, and isolated tornadoes.
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SW KS WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MO TO NORTH OF KICT AND INTO THE LOW OVER SW KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO WEST TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING AND MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HOPEFULLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WOULD BE IDEAL FOR THE REGION TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 UPPER LOW FORECASTED BY ALL MODELS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF TSRA TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS. THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY 10/18Z AS WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STARTING THE DAY SO WARM, AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY IS REASONABLY SMALL, WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND TAKE HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT, ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SQUALL LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT.
412 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
INITIATION OF THE STORMS HAS OCCURRED RIGHT ON A SHARP SURFACE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM VICHY TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KSGF/KUNO. THE TIMING OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY HRRR/RAP/NAM TO BE INTO SE MISSOURI AND SW ILLINOIS AROUND 00Z. THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER SHOULD VANISH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND SFC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT AIRMASS WILL BE REPLACED BY A COOLER DRIER ONE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN FOR FRI AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE HEARTLAND.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KBVO TO KTUL LINE. /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KPNC-KOKC-KFDR LINE THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SHOW THE DRYLINE ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AS A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS KANSAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION LIKELY TO BREAK AFTER 4PM PER GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE.
1251 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WANE AS A RIDGE SLIDES ALONG FRONT RANGE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
144 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 An upper trough moving across the Central Plains today will pass well to the north of the region.
333 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW NEAR KOAX WITH A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 850MB COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. THE WARM FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW NEAR KCID INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN EAST ALONG THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA LINE. THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR KLWD INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE TO KDBQ JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET WITH THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
1137 AM MDT THU APR 9 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION DROPPED FREEZE WARNING SINCE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFFECTED VALLEYS HAVE INCREASED ABOVE FREEZING. A NORTH FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PHASE IS MOSTLY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING AND SLOWLY COOLING. DAYLIGHT WILL BRING A MORE RAPID DOWNTURN AS A QUICK RIDGE APPROACHES. KMTJ AND KAIB ARE APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY KICKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING ABOUT A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE ASSOCIATED TO TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
242 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI. CAPE VALUES AND LIFTED INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL STILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH MAIN CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EXTREME SE OK/ADJACENT WRN AR AFTER 00Z. /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ WE HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AND INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX. AS SUCH WE HAVE SOME ANTIPATION OF A POTENTIAL PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE HEART OF THE AREA HERE IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS WITH THREAT OF WIND. THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE FASTER AND WILL BE ARRIVING INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BEEF UP CONVECTION WITH REALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
1047 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
946 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING WITH A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL. THE NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
906 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WHICH KEEP SOME OF THE WARMER AIR (LOWER 40S) CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THUS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PCPN TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
530 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
724 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAV IS ALSO 6-7 DEGREES WARMER AS WELL. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SIDE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
635 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
646 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAV IS ALSO 6-7 DEGREES WARMER AS WELL. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SIDE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 32 63 41 / 0 0 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 33 58 39 / 0 0 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 33 58 38 / 0 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 28 55 33 / 0 0 0 10.
943 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
602 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE BASE OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUD COVER THICKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO.
852 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTH TODAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS INCREASING CLOUDS AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
CURRENT UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN IS THAT OF A REX BLOCK WITH A BROAD RIDGE/UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK UPPER LOW UNDERNEATH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BAJA. GIVEN THE UPPER LOW PLACEMENT AND LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS NO MENTIONABLE POPS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
557 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 Southerly breezes commenced overnight as high pressure shifted southeast of the Ozarks. Clouds will spread over the region tonight helping to keep temperatures a little warmer than this mornings lows. This cloud cover may actually cause Sunday's highs to be slightly cooler, ranging from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Mean upper level ridging will build across the nation's mid section, forcing the main belt of westerlies well to the north of the Ozarks.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER E SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH INTO NE MT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER-LEVELS MOISTEN UP. WITH UPPER LEVER RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC COAST.
A FAIRLY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM TOWARD AND ABOVE FREEZING OVER BASICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA. DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH THE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO THE LOWER CLOUD LAYER AND A HIGH SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SETTING UP A PUSH OF COLDER AIR THROUGH SUNDAY.
1017 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROF LATER THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
621 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PULL A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
702 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
526 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
533 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern across the Nation, with a West Coast ridge and eastern CONUS trough dominating. This has left our section of the country under a northwest flow, though it will be a warm northwest flow for us as the activity in the northern stream helps keep some semblance of a thermal ridge in place across the Central Plains over the next 7 days. However, the trough will do more by shifting the thermal ridge than by actually bringing cool air with it.
MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIP DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND OVER TO THE NORTHEAST STATES. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS SEEN ROUNDING A STALLED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAJA REGION BEFORE EJECTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH HAS WEDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BUKFIT SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUBTLE LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LOW LEVELS ARE LESS AND LESS SATURATED AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE CLOUDS ERODE. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MODERATE EAST/NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
546 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR MOST AREAS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE 8 AM CST. WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE BASE OF HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUD COVER THICKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO.
1018 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE SURFACE TO 85H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGS IN HIGHER MOISTURE FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY. REGION WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WHILE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
1039 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL CRACK FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. SFC REFLECTION OF UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ANOTHER UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN GLAKS AND UPSTATE NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
555 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO WALKER. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE ENTERS NWRN MN TNT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THAT THEY BRING A SERIES OF S/WVS THROUGH THE UPPER TROF IN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PATTERN. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER SUNDAY. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA.
551 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 SHRTWV TROF CURRENTLY /CURRENTLY OVER ERN SD PER ERLY MRNG WV IMAGERY/ WILL CONT TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE MRNG.
BUT NEXT BATCH OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS UPSTATE NY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN.
648 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED W/ FAVORABLE JET PATTERN AND AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE OVER A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN (POSSIBLY W/ A COUPLE ELEVATED STORMS) THRU TUE MORNING.
623 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
632 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAV IS ALSO 6-7 DEGREES WARMER AS WELL. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SIDE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
A weak disturbance will move through the Northern Rockies today, which will move the ridge axis off to the west some. Temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year, but are anticipated to be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday.
917 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015/ MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. ALLOWING FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST TEXAS. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY.
514 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MINNESOTA-ONTARIO LINE WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND COMES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-300K LAYER WITH SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE CROSS-SECTION OF THETA-E. BUT THE LOWEST 3000 FEET IS NEAR OR ABOVE 0C. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY BUT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY.
314 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 A Pacific cold front entering northwest Nebraska this afternoon will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska overnight.
Onshore winds will continue to diminish overnight and with high pressure dominating the region, a quiet cool evening is in store. High pressure building to the north of the local waters tonight and tomorrow, will shift light to gentle breezes tonight and persist from the east on Wed.
527 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 A Pacific cold front entering northwest Nebraska this afternoon will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska overnight.
204 PM PST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild temperatures and light winds will continue today except for gusty winds across the ridges. Then, a strong cold front will bring gusty northeast winds and much cooler temperatures Wednesday.
With 850mb temperatures increasing beneath the ridge by +2C to +3C on Wednesday, expect max temperatures to be between +3F to +6F across the area. Increased afternoon max temperatures for Wednesday after accounting for today's max temperatures and the expected warmer temperatures on Wednesday afternoon. High clouds also begin to increase late in the period ahead of a cold front. Under the influence of high pressure again Wednesday, it will be another stellar day. Daytime high temperatures are expected to be at least a few degrees warmer than today's.
Showers return to the area tomorrow as a weak cold front moves down into the region and eventually stalls out.
504 PM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Have allowed the high wind warnings expire at 5 PM. The cold front has crossed most of the state already, with varying changes to local wind fields across western and central WY. Upper level pattern remains from the northwest tonight and tomorrow as a midlevel trough drops southward across eastern ID into UT. Winds tonight will be lighter at the surface, so snowfall with this trough will be lower than today, generally 1 to 2 inches for the Tetons, Salts, and Wyomings.
A temporary ridge tonight but a cold trough will move south across the forecast area Wednesday.
647 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will provide mostly clear skies this evening through the overnight. A quickly moving cold front brings a chance of precipitation Wednesday along with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures quickly drop with sunset due to remnant snow pack and decreasing winds, reaching the low to mid 30s by shortly after midnight. Temperatures may rise a few degrees before daybreak due to warm air advection on the backside of the high. Warm air advection with southerly flow will continue through midday Wednesday as the high pushes well to the east and low pressure traverses the upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is likely to bring falling temperatures for the afternoon hours in west central Ohio, arriving over the I-71 corridor into the southeast parts of the local area by mid to late afternoon.