Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low's tonight will reach the low 50s for interior and west and in the 60s along the east coast which is between 4 to 7 degrees above average for this time of year. Same weather pattern continues into Friday but with a few degrees warmer across the area with high's reaching the mid to upper 70s along the coast and near 80s interior.
Accumulations on Friday will again remain less than 1 inch with the highest amounts occurring south of Interstate 40.
Freezing fog will likely develop in places, still making travel difficult.
An upper trough axis responsible for generating the snow was working across the plains bringing another surge of cold air. The airmass moderates roughly 10C from today to Friday and despite the snow on the ground, temperatures should rise near or into the 20s in the slightly warmer airmass.
920 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 Arctic high pressure has been building from the north this evening with temperatures across central Oklahoma in the 20s and portions of Southeast Oklahoma just falling below freezing at this hour.
820 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving system will spread snow across the region tonight, with the highest accumulations expected south of I-70.
Interestingly, temps were in the LowER 40S in te San Luis valley floor. With the jet overhead and a slight upslope component to the lower level flow, there is a good chance that we could see some locally heavy snow across the Spanish Peaks Region/Raton Mesa area starting late this afternoon into tonight.
Ketcham Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a slow warming trend commences for the end of the weekend, as ridging builds over the Rockies with the low level flow shifting back to the south.
942 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Low pressure will move NE offshore the US east coast tonight and Friday, while the center of cold polar high pressure shifts SE into the Central Plains.
High pressure will continue to build into the area at the surface and with the snowpack in place, we are expecting temperatures to dip into the single digits to around 12 degrees across far southern Missouri.
Water vapor satellite imagery in combination with recent RUC model initializations indicated an elongated trough extending west/southwest from a closed low over Quebec back into the northern parts of Utah and California. Surface analysis early this afternoon showed cold high pressure in place across much of the Plains. The high pressure will slide southeast and the pressure gradient should relax compared to what it has been today.
Still cold though, with highs in most areas in the lower 20s.
432 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2017 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a trough across the Northern Plains digging southward into the Central High Plains. At the surface 1027mb high pressure is building south and the southern extent of this is over much of our CWA. High temperatures Friday could be complicated by lingering snow pack despite arctic high pressure moving east of our CWA and sunny skies prevailing. Regarding Wind Chill Advisory tonight-Friday morning: Arctic high pressure will continue to slide south over our region.
Expecting the highest total snowfall accumulation across Morton county where 3-5" inches will be possible when all is said and done.
837 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Forecast on track with fairly quiet conditions as weak High pressure ridge remains in place while upper level winds push a few mid/high clouds across the region overnight. Cloud cover may remain thin enough to allow for some insolation to push Max Temps into the lower/middle 70s across NE FL while only 60s are expected across SE GA.
556 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2017 Added mention of isolated thunderstorms across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado valleys as the convective element is very much in play along the cold front boundary. Temperatures are the concern in the southern valleys, as the cold front looks to be currently hanging over the southwest San Juans and Abajos and not quite making it into the southern valleys. Also will continue to keep an eye on the southwest Colorado valleys, where better snow accumulation will fall above 6500 feet, but warmer temperatures and timing of cold air with precipitation will be an issue for areas below 6500 feet. Forecast challenge has continued to be the latitude of the cold front vs forecast models. Decided to cancel advisories for below 6500 ft in thinking most precip will be ahead of the below freezing air.
The snow and the low cigs should bring conditions down into the IFR range. This evening we will see height falls over the Panhandles as the upper trough dives southward. The intensity of snowfall should diminish within the band around midday as the upper trough begins to enter the far northwest corner of the area. We expect to see the highest snow amounts across the far northwest portions of the Panhandles where we could 5 to 7 inches of snow with locally higher amounts.
Otherwise, the entire area will stay cloudy and unseasonably cold with highs in the low to mid 20s.
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THU EVENING.
FAVORING A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE LOWEST 10K FT. AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL SUSTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE MI THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS HIGH WILL SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT /LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S/. WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES UNDER A SE SFC WIND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW NOW CHURNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS EJECTED TO THE EAST AND ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER SW FLOW PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI.
719 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TAKING OVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE PERIOD CLOSES.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE CO/NEB BORDER. BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TNGHT INTO WED CROSS NEB INTO IA.
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA WEDNESDAY.
Surface obs show a weak ridge of high pressure over northwestern KS and a trough axis from eastern OK through central MO. A moist airmass remains in place along the trough axis with dewpoints near 60.
628 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 Large upper level low over the western half of the country is not making much progress, nor is much eastern progression expected in the overnight.
722 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 VEIL OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT/TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS/MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD DRAG THE BULK OF THE RAIN THREAT WITH IT DURING THIS PERIOD.
Appears that the highest rain chance tonight will be across the area north of a Roby to Abilene to San Saba line. A weak cold front will sag south into the Big Country overnight. With less cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer Wednesday. Highs are expected to range from the mid to upper 70s across the northern and eastern parts of our area, to the lower 80s across part of the western Concho Valley into Crockett County.
655 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL FEATURE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER CYCLONE WHICH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CONUS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTN WITH A LEAD WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS KS INTO NEB. TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS AND A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD SHLD ALLOW READINGS TO REACH THE LOW/MID 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT.
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT CLOUDS HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
1150 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 The slow moving upper low will continue to move eastward over the next 24 hours and bring the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Ozarks. An Isolated rumble of thunder will likely be the most storms can muster despite temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s as the upper low begins to lift slowly to the northeast.
DESPITE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, EVIDENT IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THE LOWEST 8-10KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAS KEPT ADVANCING PRECIPITATION AT BAY TODAY. THE RIDGE SFC/ALOFT WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY ADVANCES EASTWARD. THIS, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
A MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE LOWER MS AN TN RIVER VALLEYS.
1240 AM EDT WED APR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
955 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DESCEND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OLD PESKY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FOR LATER WEDNESDAY ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN SETS UP MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS A WAVE ROTATES AROUND THAT DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
808 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW 40S AND LOW 50S.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO MOVING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE BUT THE WEAKER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN INTACT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
MORE CLDS AND A S FLOW WL KEEP THE WRN CWA WARMER. UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NE CO WITH A RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE SERN U. A TRANSITION TO A COOLER REGIME WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN MIDWEEK.
620 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL TIGHTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z WED.
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST.
WITH ASSOCIATED H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN US. /ISSUED 303 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016/ PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WATCHING S/W SWINGING AROUND INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST.
723 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US.
1227 AM EDT WED APR 20 2016 AVIATION GENERALLY FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT.
958 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL ADVANCE OVER TOP OF AN INCREASINGLY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 30-40F THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE MUCH COOLER COASTS). IN ADDITION 500MB RIDGE AXIS BROADENS WITH TIME.
FOCUS IS ON THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEMI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IS FINALLY BRAKING DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD AND WILL OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN HUNG ON FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKENING BLOCK/HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR TODAY. WITH THE GRADUAL DECAY IN THE HIGHER CLOUDS BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50'S FOR MOST AREAS. THE FAR WESTERN HALF MAY STAY A BIT WARMER DUE TO THE STRATUS DECK MENTIONED ABOVE.
1026 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US.
SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE ALREADY AND SOME LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH RIDGES IN THE MID 70S. RIDGING WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT. BUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN RECENT NIGHTS WHERE DROPS OF 40 TO 45 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS WERE COMMON. UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
754 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO SOUTHERN OHIO. FOLLOWED BY RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE.
57/MCMICHAEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INTO OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z AT THE LATEST WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW VFR CONDITION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/ THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
1153 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL TIGHTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z WED.
Broad upper low over the Lee Rockies will continue to drift toward the Great Lakes through the short term forecast period.
733 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRECIP HAS BEEN FALLING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MUCH OF IT HAS LIKELY BEEN VIRGA.
ALSO EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 05Z WED OWING TO CURRENT/EXPECTED SWELL CHARACTERISTICS.
A cold front will swing winds to the north at KABI by 02Z with light and variable winds at the remaining terminals. Appears that the highest rain chance tonight will be across the area north of a Roby to Abilene to San Saba line. A weak cold front will sag south into the Big Country overnight. With less cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer Wednesday. Highs are expected to range from the mid to upper 70s across the northern and eastern parts of our area, to the lower 80s across part of the western Concho Valley into Crockett County.
HR MODEL ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND NW AR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE PERIOD CLOSES.
743 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL ADVANCE OVER TOP OF AN INCREASINGLY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 30-40F THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE MUCH COOLER COASTS). IN ADDITION 500MB RIDGE AXIS BROADENS WITH TIME.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE TO IA ON WED. AND SELY WED NT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
BUT OVERALL THERE ARE JUST SOME CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MEDFORD CWA ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS. BUT INITIALLY PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW OVER THE WEST COAST DUE TO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST STATES.
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH ONE SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM WISCONSIN THEN WEST INTO SE ND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA INTO NRN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. A 500 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH AREA IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND WED NIGHT COOL FRONT.
WATCHING S/W SWINGING AROUND INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST. A TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUED STREAMING OVERHEAD A WEAK NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AT 2 PM /SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY BETWEEN MID EVENING AND MIDNIGHT.
1159 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/ THE BLOCKING PATTERN HUNG ON FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKENING BLOCK/HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR TODAY. WITH THE GRADUAL DECAY IN THE HIGHER CLOUDS BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50'S FOR MOST AREAS. THE FAR WESTERN HALF MAY STAY A BIT WARMER DUE TO THE STRATUS DECK MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIP NEARING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 82 60 77 / 0 10 10 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 80 59 76 / 0 10 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 80 59 77 / 0 10 10 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 76 55 75 / 0 10 20 30.
726 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 Large upper level low spinning over northeast Colorado will begin to move slowly eastward tonight and pick up speed on Wednesday. Several lobes of vorticity will rotate around the low tonight and Wednesday which will continue to keep the threat for precip over the region.
1036 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016 DRAWINGS ON THE H5 RAOB CHART INDICATE THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION HAS FINALLY CROSSED THE GREAT DIVIDE. PATTERN REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AND THIS LOW IS BASICALLY GOING TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CLEARING SUBSTANTIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK INFERRED LOW NEAR KGBG WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 50S AND 60S FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
The next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into eastern Oklahoma later this evening as the upper level low that has been stuck over the Rockies finally begins to move off to the east.
/ISSUED 424 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN HAS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WRN US. THIS LOW HAS BEEN ROTATING VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD WITH A LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SMALLER UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW OFF OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SENDING MOISTURE. PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON.
559 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016 DRAWINGS ON THE H5 RAOB CHART INDICATE THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION HAS FINALLY CROSSED THE GREAT DIVIDE. PATTERN REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AND THIS LOW IS BASICALLY GOING TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CLEARING SUBSTANTIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A COOLER AIR MASS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
816 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TAKING OVER.
747 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 AVIATION GENERALLY FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS. IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE HEAVIEST RAINS OF OVER AN INCH SHOULD OCCUR IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVERHEAD. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO MOVING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE BUT THE WEAKER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN INTACT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
951 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
842 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH TONIGHT REMAINING DRY WITH MOSTLY CALM WINDS AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL COME BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEAS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
Gosselin Large upper level low spinning over northeast Colorado will begin to move slowly eastward tonight and pick up speed on Wednesday. Several lobes of vorticity will rotate around the low tonight and Wednesday which will continue to keep the threat for precip over the region.
951 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT CLOUDS HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
725 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NE CO WITH A RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE SERN U. A TRANSITION TO A COOLER REGIME WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK.
1035 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 CURRENTLY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE SETTLING INTO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Weak mid/upper-level ridging remains in place across the region for today with the surface Atlantic ridge axis across the central part of the Florida peninsula. High pressure will remain in place across the waters through the next several days, with winds and seas remaining below headlines.
with the cold front providing the focus for activity on Saturday. as this is in the vicinity of the trough. So, have kept pops in the high chance category, for now. A shear axis aloft/weakness in the ridge may serve to steepen lapse rates a bit during both afternoons, but for now, values remain unimpressive.
Morning surface analysis shows our region on the western edge of the Western Atlantic ridge, with southerly flow in place.