Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
239 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTH TO THE MEXICO HIGHLANDS. LOBES OF JET LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING DROP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUCH AS THE ONE MODELS SHOW PASSING OVER COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUING IN THE NORTHERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST WEST-SOUTHWEST SLOPES. COULD SEE HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION AND A SHIFT BACK TO W- NWLY FLOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE 700-600MB TROUGH AXIS. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY A DEG OR TWO DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY.
Thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures remain essentially stagnant, ensuring afternoon highs remain well below normal, struggling to reach freezing. A westerly flow across the Rockies will then develop mid week as the Tuesday upper level trough continues to move across Mississippi Valley, and another upper level trough drops south out of southwest Canada into the Pacific Northwest.
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LVL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED. OTHER THAN A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. A WEAK MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEP LAYER OF WEAK RISING MOTION WITH THE STACKED TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT DUSTING OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
Not a great deal of confidence in getting rid of the low clouds this afternoon. If the lower cloud deck erodes they will be replaced by a shield of mid-level clouds. /ISSUED 230 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ The upper low that brought record flooding rainfall and some winter weather to our area the past few days has now rocketed up into the Great Lakes region this morning. Predominant ridging in the surface pattern and boundary layer RH suggest below average temps for highs the next few days. Broad cyclonic flow over the western 2/3rds of the nation will prevail for much of the week before a transition to more of a blocking pattern for the end of the week. The aforementioned blocking pattern for the end of the week will be a dry pattern for us.
MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE SNOW TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FORCING FROM THE LOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT SNOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES IN NW WISCONSIN.
247 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 18Z SFC DATA HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TROF EXTENDING WEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
120 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO CANADA TODAY. COOL WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRY US OUT AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN FOR TONIGHT.
519 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
727 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SUN IS UP AND TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. LOW LEVELS VERY DRY AND ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUED CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WEAK 500MB TROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C, GOOD TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
704 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
951 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH LATE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
748 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SUN IS UP AND TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. LOW LEVELS VERY DRY AND ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUED CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WEAK 500MB TROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C, GOOD TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH ABOUT MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SE ACROSS THE AREA AND BEST SFC TO H7 MOISTURE IS PUSHED SOUTH.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 949 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT'LL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE NORMALLY COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NEW ENGLANDS WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT.
However the ridge looks as though it will keep any precipitation north and west of the area. An upper level low looks as though is may become trapped under the ridge over the southeastern portions of the country and begin to retrograde west towards the end of the week. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, as high pressure remains in control at the surface.
740 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING FAIRLY SEASONABLE AND DRY FALL WEATHER. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
also some patchy stratus across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos hiding under the higher clouds. Ridging is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the ridge flattening.
1100 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 High pressure continues to dominate Central Illinois this morning with sunny skies and mild temperatures. The ridge axis over the region will keep winds relatively light, and mainly out of the south.
1113 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
945 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE RIDGES INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES A BIT QUICKER, AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS THIS REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KPIT. BULK OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING. AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY STRAY SHOWERS ENDING EARLY ACROSS THE RIDGES. UPPER PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND QUIET THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A BROAD AND NEBULOUS RIDGE LIES ACROSS OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB SHOULD PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
927 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER NY AND PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 920 AM UPDATE: A FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS SHIELD HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE SOUTH. CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
712 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MISSOURI TO MAINE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN SE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SLIDING EASTWARD. THIS SUGGESTS LEANING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT STILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
1036 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 ANOTHER FANTASTIC LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION! LOW LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. NO COMPLAINTS HERE - ENJOY! LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID LEVEL DECK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER.
70/DD /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY PCPN ACROSS THE CWA AS A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ALL SHOW IT FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS AND STLT TRENDS BOTH ARE SHOWING THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTN AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA.
1119 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE RIDGES INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED TO THE FAYETTE RIDGES AND ELEVATIONS SOUTH BUT SHOULD EXPAND A BIT NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KPIT. BULK OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING. AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY STRAY SHOWERS ENDING EARLY ACROSS THE RIDGES. UPPER PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND QUIET THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
1009 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING FAIRLY SEASONABLE AND DRY FALL WEATHER. A MID LEVEL 'COLD' POOL OF -17C H5 AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. WHILE GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF 'SELF DESTRUCT' SUN. THIS LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDDAY WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1000 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLIFYING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE 925-850MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THE LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER EAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING.
However the ridge looks as though it will keep any precipitation north and west of the area. An upper level low looks as though is may become trapped under the ridge over the southeastern portions of the country and begin to retrograde west towards the end of the week. Seeing some lifr ceilings and intermittent 1/2 mile visibilities this morning around the Branson Airport as a light southeast wind blowing cooler air over the warmer Table Rock Lake is quickly condensing before moving over the Branson aerodrome.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AND WE EXPANDED THE HIGHER POPS (40%) FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
1128 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
943 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MT AT MID-MORNING AND THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST WINDS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING CLOSER TO OBSERVATIONS AND IN PARTICULAR TO LOWER THEM OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
821 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
957 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST PLACES THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL HELP PULL DOWN A COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TUESDAY. WITH DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
604 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID LEVEL DECK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
THIS WILL APPLY A LIMIT TO THE OVERALL RESPONSE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DESPITE A PERIOD OF DEEPER INSTABILITY WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM.
310 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SW ONTARIO.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TOMORROW.
SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND CENTRAL MT UP TO AROUND GREAT FALLS. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THEN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD FORM AS WELL. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
Valley freezing rain and mountain snow to create difficult travel conditions this evening into Monday morning. While the bulk of snow from last night's weather system has ended across the area this morning, areas of light snow continue, particularly across the higher terrain and over mountain passes. This weather system is expected to be warmer than the previous weather system, which makes the precipitation type difficult to forecast. While mountains and passes are expected to have accumulating snow, valley locations will see a mixed bag of precipitation, including rain, freezing rain and snow.
334 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF TODAY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW.
140 AM MST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT OVERALL KEEP ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS AS IF ITS STALLED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT EAST. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY-WINDY AND WARMER AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
THE OVERALL THEME IN THE OUT PERIODS IS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /OR SOME SUBTLE DERIVATION THERE-OF/ REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NO ARCTIC COLD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA OR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO CHANNEL ARCTIC COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR /AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK'S END/ WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
544 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 AT H5 STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER INTERNATIONAL FALLS SENDING A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO A 997MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO IDAHO. 850MB TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY AS RIDGE TO THE WEST PUSHES EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY.
THE FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE A SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
347 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 AT H5 STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER INTERNATIONAL FALLS SENDING A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO A 997MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO IDAHO. 850MB TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY AS RIDGE TO THE WEST PUSHES EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY.
There may be some patchy freezing fog Monday morning as weak warm air advection resumes. Forecast soundings are supportive of patchy freezing fog, but there is drier air forecast to the east, so think overall it will be more limited than compared to a widespread freezing fog event.
401 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 Canadian cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma within the next couple hours and will sweep south across the area today.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S WHICH WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THEN YESTERDAY. NAM LOOKS TO HANDLE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BETTER AND WILL LEAN WITH THE COOLER NUMBERS BUT THIS ENDS UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY'S EXPECTED HIGHS.
THUS FAR, WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE, AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY, INDICATING TWO BANDS OF WIND MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH RATHER THAN ONE CONSOLIDATED MAXIMUM.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA HAS A CHANCE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO KTRI AND KTYS IN THE MORNING, IF ANY SNOW DOES FALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER LIGHT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
322 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 This week will be the definition of zonal upper level flow with a series of troughs moving across the area in modest westerly flow. These troughs will bring us weak cold fronts, about one every day, that will do little other than shift the wind direction and keep temperatures from rising too far above normal. About the only hazards to keep an eye on this week will be the potential for strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains associated with the base of the upper troughs, and possible fire weather concerns with dry air in place though light winds in the lower elevations will limit the critical fire weather potential.
A weak cold front will move through the area overnight, resulting in north winds of 5 to 10 knots. The cold front will move into the Big Country during the early evening hours and be through all of West Central Texas by sunrise.
WHILE CONCURRENTLY A BREEZY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA /15-20 MPH/. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH RAISES CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 500 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /40S AND 50S/. AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOT USHERING IN AN OVERLY COLD AIRMASS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK. WITH THE SERIES OF UPPER WAVES WILL BE A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTS.
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PASS MAINLY NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE ARE FINALLY BREAKING UP. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING REINFORCING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
MIGHT SEE A A FEW SPITS OF RAIN NORTH OF TUCSON AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
358 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST.
IN THE LOW/MID 30S. TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MONDAY WILL BE VERY COLD BUT DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
LEE SIDE TROF DEEPENS LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
338 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 Strong arctic cold front continues to progress SW across SW KS this morning, with areas of freezing fog developing immediately after frontal passage. Just issued a nowcast to cover, and placed areas of freezing fog in the grids, but will not issue an advisory at this time. There may be some patchy freezing fog Monday morning as weak warm air advection resumes. Forecast soundings are supportive of patchy freezing fog, but there is drier air forecast to the east, so think overall it will be more limited than compared to a widespread freezing fog event.