Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
150 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
302 PM MST FRI OCT 23 2015 A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ARIZONA TONIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEST COAST THERE IS A RIDGE. THE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE HAS BEEN NUDGING INLAND. THE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL HOLDING FIRM OVER THE NE TN THIS MORNING. STRONG RIDGING EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST INTO ALABAMA. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO BUILD THE HIGH FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
534 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP A DRY.
KAPF HAD BRIEF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING BUT NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /ISSUED 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015/ POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES. AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEAKENS WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
245 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 WV imagery shows an upper lvl trough moving into NM and continuing to dry-slot Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas. The approaching NM trough is entraining a nice fetch of tropical moisture from Patricia into SW flow thru the lwr Trans Pecos and areas of Texas beyond. River Valley, but this should shift SSE overnight as the upper trough arrives. Otherwise, w/the NM trough arrives Saturday, shunting convection to the east and dropping a cold front into the region.
409 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP A DRY.
150 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. THOUGH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE MODELS DEVELOP THE STORM SYSTEM SUCH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE LOW AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
1142 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A POST FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS AND SOME SNOWSHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE WRAPPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. DRYING BEGINS IN EARNEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
332 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
144 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 AVIATION/HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IT IS BATTLING A DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH RES EURO WOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING IN BEFORE 00Z. HOWEVER ALL MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS ARRIVING. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE WNW WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST IS HELPING TO ORIENT THIS LINE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS SETTING UP A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE I-30 CORRIDOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
401 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
1057 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SHIFT TO LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
116 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 DRY AND SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail out ahead of a cold front that will move into the area later tonight. /issued / Minor tweaks to POPS for the afternoon as most rain/thunder will stay south of I-40 as best forcing remains in the vicinity of the warm front across TX. Cold front to move into the region tonight.
Deep layer ridging will remain in place over the area tonight with low level flow from the east and upper level flow from the northwest. The low level eastern flow will keep our southwestern zones a bit more humid, which will make fog development overnight more likely to stay in south central Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend. Temperatures today will peak in the mid-upper 80s and dip to the low-mid 60s, possibly even dipping to the upper 50s in our northern Georgia counties.
08Z water vapor imagery shows northwest flow aloft with a long wave trough over the northeastern quarter of North America and upper level ridging over the southwest U. This is mainly due to limited moisture and the expected dry air that will advect into the area this morning behind the cold front. The shot of cold air appears to be brief as the consensus in the models is for the ridge to slide east by this afternoon and southwesterly winds develop late in the day bringing warm air back into the area. Temps overnight should be non-diurnal on account of the low level warm air advection progged by the models.
A WARMER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 LOOKS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF MILES CITY. A WESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. ONLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY'S AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. WARMER AIR WILL WORK EWD THROUGH THE ZONES WITH READINGS NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN NERN WY AND FAR WRN IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ERN FOOTHILLS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THERMAL RIDGE SETTING UP IN OUR WRN ZONES. WITH SOME READINGS INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE ERN FOOTHILLS.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, SO EXPECT MAINLY SNOW, THOUGH LIGHT RAIN AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE BELOW 2000 FEET.
Northwest flow persists with latest round of cold, shallow high pressure building into the Central Plains. Weak low pressure associated with the wave brings 20-30kt westerly winds around 900mb tonight with 850mb temps rising around 5C, pushing a warm front through.
1157 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER SE TX ATTM AND AS SUCH WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER BAJA MEXICO.
THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SINK FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING A LITTLE OF THE COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. AT THE MOMENT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE COOLER SECTIONS OF GLADES AND HENDRY WITH UPPER 40S ALONG THE GULF COAST AND REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. BUT IF CIRRUS DECK REMAINS MORE ROBUST, TEMPS MAY HOLD 5 OR SO DEGREES WARMER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE WILL ONLY THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST ABLE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST IS LOOSING AMPLITUDE THIS MORNING. SAID RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK VALLEY/BASIN INVERSIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS NAMELY NORTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE ALSO GIVING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LOW RH READINGS IN THE TEENS THANKS TO DEWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. SOME LOCALES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WORKING SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC COAST IS GOING TO SHIFT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION. ALL AREAS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST TONGIHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. THIS LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ONLY 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA. WINDS SHOULD STAY STRONG THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SNOW SHOWER BAND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THEN DECREASE BY MID AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. AND BELOW ZERO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
STILL ANTICIPATING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO COME SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE HEART OF THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. BUT OVERNIGHT THE BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY WASH OUT AND INCOMING ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REALLY JUST SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR MASS AND PLEASANT WEATHER IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE THANKS TO ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING; MANY LOCATIONS WILL STILL MANAGE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO FREEZING (ESPECIALLY TONIGHT).
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS. PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS KMSL BY 13/02Z AND KHSV BY 13/03Z WHICH WILL CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTION TO NORTHERLY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
1146 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THIS MORNING ALLOWING THE LOW WIND CHILLS EXPERIENCED IN THE EAST TO IMPROVE.
1140 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND CHILL TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY DROP CLOSE TO CRITERIA YET THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BUILD EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS DEVELOPS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SOUTH OF EAGLE PASS AND MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
345 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) Overnight temperatures will be warmer than what we saw this morning, as surface dewpoints will be higher and some upper level cloud cover is expected. Low temperatures are still expected to be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 30s. Warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday as southwest winds increase to 6 to 12 mph, with higher gusts. High temperatures are generally expected to be in the low to mid 60s.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AT 19Z AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP WARMER THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS. WITH CLOUDS AND WARMER COLUMN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO ABOVE ZERO.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DURING THE MORNING AND HAVE ADDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THERMAL TROF PASSES BY THE STATE.
1134 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1013 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016/ A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS. PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL WAA THAT WILL TAKE PLACE THOUGH THE DAY. SO EXPECT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO GIVE WAY TO SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE ZONE.
200 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY FOR MOST TODAY AS THE LATEST COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID-STATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA PATTERN CONTINUES. 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE +2 TO +4 C ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN HIGHS OF 32 F OR POSSIBLY WARMER.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT WOULD DETER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW UNTIL IT GETS EAST OF INTERSTATE 94.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AFTER PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S IN VALLEY LOCALES WHERE DISSIPATION IS SLOW THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 50N/140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED S/WV TO THE SW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AS THIS S/WV TRACKS EAST TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS. SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE A GENERALLY WEAK BUT ACTIVE PACIFIC JET WILL BRING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THROUGH OUR AREA.
CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER OUR AREA TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE FROM LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER COUNTY FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST IN UPPER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KMUO AND OVER RIDGETOPS. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE SNOW MAIN IN NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING FLURRIES TO THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW BUT MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRENGTHENING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM CURRY COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
A parade of storms will continue to impact the Inland Northwest for the rest of the week and into the weekend with more rounds of mountain snow and a rain snow mix for the lower elevations.
1038 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THIS MORNING ALLOWING THE LOW WIND CHILLS EXPERIENCED IN THE EAST TO IMPROVE.
Gusty winds will continue through early evening in the wake of the cold front with gusts as high as 45 mph possible, though most locations will see 40 mph or less. Temperatures will continue to drop tonight as the very cold airmass settles in and high pressure builds in. Lows tomorrow morning will range from the single digits to the lower teens.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IS THE COLD SPOT WITH ALAMOSA AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE IN TO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH COLDER OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AS OPPOSED TO 40S ACROSS EAST TN AND SW NC WITH LOWER 50S AT CHA. LIKELY HIGHER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK MAINLY EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE ENDING AROUND SUNSET FROM SE KY AND A FEW HOURS LATER ACROSS THE NE TN MOUNTAINS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH 30S NORTHEAST AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
955 AM MST TUE JAN 12 2016 DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND NO PRECIPITATION. THIS TROUGH IS FOLLOWED BY A DECREASING AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN A LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MORE REFLECTIVE OF COOLER CURRENT MET GUIDANCE THAN MUCH WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.
254 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY BEING DOMINATED BY A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER RIDGE. ONE TROUGH RESIDES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF OREGON.
419 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEND TO KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
We begin our climb out of the deep freeze on Wednesday as southerly low-level return flow develops on the back side of a progressive area of high pressure. So, have boosted PoPs into the high Chance or low Likely category along/north of the I-74 corridor for the late morning/early afternoon hours.
THE LOWER SUSQ IS PROBABLY AT MOST RISK FOR FLASH FREEZE GIVEN TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 ABOVE FROM THE CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
A BRIEF WARMER SPELL WAS EVIDENT WITH LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1030MB WAS DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. THIS RIDGE MOVING OVER A SNOW COVERED REGION FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE. NIGHT TIME LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S FORECAST AREA WIDE. OTHERWISE UNDER SUNNY SKIES HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION SHOULD BRING LIGHT WINDS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST TN.
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER BAJA MEXICO.
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CONUS.
AND WE CHOSE TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING IN THE WATFORD CITY AND WILLISTON AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ALOFT. BUT NON-ZERO RISK OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
With ridging ahead of the approaching system, temperatures over the mountain ridges are running considerably warmer compared to 24 hours ago while readings in the Central Valley are mostly a little cooler - in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Freezing rain potential lower valleys of far Northwest Montana.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Longwave upper TROF continues to dominate eastern North America early this morning with a NW flow over our region. An associated strong cold front extends to the southwest of this clipper system and as of 08z is just reaching Kirksville (IRK) and is entering our forecast area. As a result of being ahead of the cold front currently, many areas remain relatively mild for January standards with readings in the 30s. Lesser chances for a brief bout of snow are possible for areas further west early this morning with the cold front as it drops down as well.
An upper level ridge axis will move east into the central and northern Rockies late tonight and Wednesday as an upper level trough exits the eastern Pacific and begins to cross the western United States.
POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP DEEPEN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN U. THE FIRST WILL BE AN OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT WILL GET PICKED UP AND SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LINGERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA/SONORA STATE OF MEXICO TODAY. THEN DRIFTS EAST TO JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE OPENING INTO A TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO BRINGS WARMER.
/issued 321 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016/ A weak ua trough will translate harmlessly eastward over the region today and Wednesday, but will promote temperatures near normal today, and above normal Wednesday.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THERMAL RIDGE SETTING UP IN OUR WRN ZONES. WITH SOME READINGS INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE ERN FOOTHILLS.