Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
924 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 The surface pressure gradient over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will result in southeasterly winds remaining around 5 to 10 MPH through the overnight hours. Gradient between high pressure over the southeast US and low pressure over the central plains should keep winds and mixing up tonight to keep any fog from forming. Dry weather will continue into Thursday with modest ridging aloft gradually transitioning to a more zonal flow. After a morning of dense fog today, not expecting any problems with fog development late tonight as a tightening gradient with deepening low pressure over the Plains leading to winds staying up overnight.
Along with potential of additional cloudiness, current temp trends supporting warmer lows than previously forecasted. Cirrus clouds blanket Middle Tennessee this evening as high pressure retreats to the east and a cold front approaches the mid state from the west.
The low-level air mass is wedged under a massive subsidence inversion, which the 00z KEY sounding showed based beneath 3,000 feet this evening.
Ridging aloft continues to build over the Southeast, with southwest flow aloft streaming in Gulf moisture, and therefore increasing cloud cover overnight. Coupled with high pressure at the surface progressing over the Mid Atlantic and turning light surface winds to the southeast, overnight temperatures will be very mild in the low to mid 40s.
1250 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Winds will increase early today as rain moves into the area as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. Highs Thursday will be in the low to mid 50s.
1010 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today, bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
Cold front will move into northeast OK shortly after 12z and should be into SE OK / WC AR between 18-20z. /Issued 410 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/ A cold front will move south across the area today.
/issued 434 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/ Currently the ridge that has been sitting over the Mid-South is now downstream of the area with a pre-frontal mid-level trough situated over MO and AR. The trough is helping produce numerous showers across the area - upstream of the County Warning Area. Temperatures are currently in mid 40s to mid 50s with the cooler temperatures unusually in MS due to much less cloud coverage. However, the chance of rain is much less in MS as the trough is expected to stay far enough north that the rain will mostly hold off until the evening and overnight hours for the southern portions of the CWA.
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 709 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure will move off to the southeast of the region today as a cold front approaches from the west.
The morning and early afternoon will be the window most favorable for showers and thunderstorms across the southern South and Rolling Plains along the leading edge of the cold front that is currently pushing south out of the southern Texas Panhandle. The upper level low will continue its trek eastward through the day, evolving into a broad trough that will be centered over the Four Corners region by later tonight. The moisture cuts off sharply behind the secondary cold front early tomorrow morning. Though, where surface moisture lingers on pavement as drier and colder air fills in, could become hazardous along our northern zones where temps will be at or just below freezing for the first half of Friday morning.
Low pressure system that provided the forecast area with southern valley rain and mountain snow is exiting the district this morning.
224 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure will remain over the region today. Upper ridge today and Friday will bring warmer temperatures and dry weather.
There hasn't been much snow yet with the precip occurring in the relatively warmer areas. Temperatures will fall continuously through the day and will bottom out in the upper teens to lower 20s tonight as high pressure builds in.
416 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over IA, with high pressure centered over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the southwest US, with a northern stream trough moving east across the Dakotas. Clouds linger across the area, but winds have diminished overnight as high pressure approaches. Skies will clear out later this morning as high pressure moves into the western Dakotas. A warming trend will then take place for Friday through the weekend as low pressure over the southwest US passes south of the region and ridging edges into the western US.
Friday and the weekend look dry and warmer, but mornings will still be a bit chilly.
Surface obs near the high in southern Canada are currently in the single digits on either side of zero. The high pushes south of the CWA on Friday with warm, south- southwest winds moving into the area. This boundary will slide across the area Friday night, with the region then situated in between this trough to the east and high pressure over the western part of the country through the weekend.
434 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Currently the ridge that has been sitting over the Mid-South is now downstream of the area with a pre-frontal mid-level trough situated over MO and AR. The trough is helping produce numerous showers across the area - upstream of the County Warning Area. Temperatures are currently in mid 40s to mid 50s with the cooler temperatures unusually in MS due to much less cloud coverage. However, the chance of rain is much less in MS as the trough is expected to stay far enough north that the rain will mostly hold off until the evening and overnight hours for the southern portions of the CWA.
Low level southerlies now established are yielding temperatures from 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. While moisture continues and increase in the low and upper levels, the mid levels will remain relatively dry limiting potential for any mentionable rains today except over the extreme northwestern portion of the forecast area.
This will be followed by dry and warmer weather through the weekend with locally gusty northeast winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains during the weekend.
Given the recent poor overall performance of the NAM, we favor the lower end of the spectrum for this forecast package.
After fog clears around 15Z, a cold front which is now located across the TX Panhandle will reach the northern CWA border. Upper-level lift on the lee side of the associated trof will slowly approach the region. GFS develops a W sfc wind w/passage of the upper trof faster than NAM which promotes much warmer temperatures. Decided to blend w/warmer guidance due to the weak nature of the front and clearing skies due to subsidence behind the upper trof.
Some light precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, will accompany a cold front tonight and Friday. At the surface, a weak low will cross the Great Lakes, pushing a warm front through the forecast area this afternoon. WAA will also usher in increasing cloud cover in advance of the cold front. Light precipitation may begin overspread portions of the area late this afternoon with overrunning and cold frontal approach. Better precipitation changes will occur late this evening through early Friday morning with cold frontal passage. All precipitation through Friday afternoon is expected to remain liquid, as temperatures will only fall into the lower 40s to upper 30s. Mild temperatures are expected tonight ahead of the cold front.
Breezy northwest winds continued across western Nebraska with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s northwest Sandhills to the lower 30s southeast. A positively tilted northern stream trough will move into the Great Lakes Region today. For tonight, a positively tilted closed low in northern Arizona will track into eastern Colorado overnight. On Friday, this closed low will track across Kansas. The cooler H85 temperatures near -3C to-4C will be across southern areas in closer proximity of the closed low.
945 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region through tonight.
Much cooler temperatures today and Friday followed by drier conditions, chilly mornings and warmer afternoons this weekend. The associated cold front is still west of Tucson with a FROPA later today. Snowfall well underway in the mountain ranges with several inches showing up on Radio Ridge (about 9k feet) north of Tucson. Some clearing from the west Friday as the low fills and shifts toward the central Plains. Overnight lows will be several degrees below average the next few days, but no freezing threat for metro Tucson expected. Normal seasonal freezing for colder eastern valleys. Weak troughiness will keep temperatures from jumping back too quickly this weekend with daytime highs remaining near or below seasonal averages. The large scale mean trough position over most of the country should keep it from completely retrograding under the high.
Dry and slightly warmer by 5 to 10 degrees in most locations on Friday.
540 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Cold front is just beginning to quickly move through far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, where a broken line of convection has developed. Expect the front and associated precipitation to clear the forecast area by mid/late morning, leaving dry and cooler conditions in its wake. Attention then turns west to the next large upper low currently centered over Las Vegas. As the center of the upper low approaches/moves directly over the area, enough moistening and ascent is expected for precipitation to develop across the area. Still, enough uncertainty could lend to an occasional mix of light snow at times, but with above freezing surface temperatures and the light amounts of precipitation, no impacts are expected in this area.
301 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Cold front is just beginning to quickly move through far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, where a broken line of convection has developed. Expect the front and associated precipitation to clear the forecast area by mid/late morning, leaving dry and cooler conditions in its wake. Attention then turns west to the next large upper low currently centered over Las Vegas. As the center of the upper low approaches/moves directly over the area, enough moistening and ascent is expected for precipitation to develop across the area. Still, enough uncertainty could lend to an occasional mix of light snow at times, but with above freezing surface temperatures and the light amounts of precipitation, no impacts are expected in this area.
A coastal trough will move inland today, bringing an increase in low level moisture allowing some fair weather cumulus clouds to form this afternoon across northeast Florida. Mid/upper ridge will move over the area today continuing the dry and mild pattern. Some high thin cloudiness will move over the ridge with skies remaining mostly sunny.
Satellite imagery shows the upper low now located over far southern Nevada with east northeast flow across NorCal on the backside of the system. Next incoming trough forecast to split off the coast later today with the southern portion dropping southward tonight to form another closed low off the coast of SoCal on Friday while ridging builds across NorCal. Ridging is forecast to hold through the weekend resulting in lighter winds, milder daytime temperatures and cool nights.
334 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Mid-upper wave spinning northeast into northwest Iowa early this morning, and will continue to progress toward southern Wisconsin by midday, as a northern stream trough drops southeast across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Thus far, the bulk of precipitation with the southern wave has remained near/south of a line from Platte to just northwest of Sioux Falls, to Marshall, with little if anything to the northwest of this line, though starting to see indications of light snow developing on radar in central/northeast South Dakota in response to the northern trough. Thus looking for highs within a few degrees of our daybreak readings, from the lower 30s north to around 40 southeast.
This morning will start out much warmer than yesterday. For today, clouds will gradually lower and thicken as a cold front approaches from the northwest. South winds will bring mild air with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Latest obs show the leading edge of a cold front extending from northwest IA through eastern NE to central KS. Today through Friday morning Dry air mass quickly fills in behind exiting cold front.
With high pressure in control, a few clouds and light winds are expected for the next couple days, along with a gradual warming.
633 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region today and tonight.
Even though the local area to stay cloudy all day, temperatures will manage to reach the low 70s across the Hill Country to lower 80s along and east of Interstate 35. A cold front is on the way to the area early Friday morning and expected to push across the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country area between 5 am and 7 am. By the time the cold front moves across the I-35 on Friday morning, the upper level support should be way to our east and therefore, strong thunderstorm activity is not expected across the area.
625 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Winds will increase early today as rain moves into the area as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s. Drier and cooler weather then follows Friday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Impressive sw disturbance seen in vapor lifting northeast out of se NE this morning and will generally shear out ahead of nrn stream trough advancing ewd through srn Canada. Brief sfc ridging advances through the OH valley Fri ahead of parent srn stream wave ejecting out of the great basin.
The lower clouds expected to spread across the region today, mainly staying above 3000ft with VFR expected. Low level southerlies now established are yielding temperatures from 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. While moisture continues and increase in the low and upper levels, the mid levels will remain relatively dry limiting potential for any mentionable rains today except over the extreme northwestern portion of the forecast area.
240 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over IA, with high pressure centered over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the southwest US, with a northern stream trough moving east across the Dakotas. Clouds linger across the area, but winds have diminished overnight as high pressure approaches. Skies will clear out later this morning as high pressure moves into the western Dakotas. A warming trend will then take place for Friday through the weekend as low pressure over the southwest US passes south of the region and ridging edges into the western US.
410 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 A cold front will move south across the area today.
347 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 Stable conditions are developing with high pressure building over the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be subdued by the current area of high pressure, resulting in valley highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Dense fog affecting KLBB should clear shortly after the arrival of a cold front which has just pushed south from KPVW. The morning and early afternoon will be the window most favorable for showers and thunderstorms across the southern South and Rolling Plains along the leading edge of the cold front that is currently pushing south out of the southern Texas Panhandle. The upper level low will continue its trek eastward through the day, evolving into a broad trough that will be centered over the Four Corners region by later tonight. The moisture cuts off sharply behind the secondary cold front early tomorrow morning. Though, where surface moisture lingers on pavement as drier and colder air fills in, could become hazardous along our northern zones where temps will be at or just below freezing for the first half of Friday morning.
Weak cold front drops into the far north by Friday but stalls.
Inversion will intensify today so will see cooler temperatures beneath the inversion which will mainly be the Columbia Basin. MVFR CIGs possible through about 21z at PDT, ALW, RDM and BDN as the low clouds butt up against the nearby terrain.
149 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Rain and drizzle ended mid to late morning across the area, with extensive low clouds ahead of and behind the cold front. Most locations received between a quarter of an inch and a half inch of rain in the past 24 hours, with the higher amounts in the north. Quite the change in temperatures today, with highs in the 50s occurring in the morning ahead of a strong cold front. Latest HREF and hi-res guidance depicts significant drying in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere tonight, with clouds clearing from northwest to southeast tonight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s by sunrise Friday.
255 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 (Tonight and Friday) The cold front was moving slowly southward across the CWA this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected overnight in association with the upper level trough to the west ejecting out into the Plains. Expect a much cooler day on Friday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s with partial sky clearing by the afternoon and evening.
Temps are warmer this morning, especially for those few areas that have seen the sun this morning.
Winds will shift to the west late this afternoon into this evening as a cold front tracks across the region. Highs temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 50s. Drier and cooler weather then follows Friday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Impressive sw disturbance seen in vapor lifting northeast out of se NE this morning and will generally shear out ahead of nrn stream trough advancing ewd through srn Canada. Brief sfc ridging advances through the OH valley Fri ahead of parent srn stream wave ejecting out of the great basin.
1005 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over IA, with high pressure centered over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the southwest US, with a northern stream trough moving east across the Dakotas. Clouds linger across the area, but winds have diminished overnight as high pressure approaches. Skies will clear out later this morning as high pressure moves into the western Dakotas. A warming trend will then take place for Friday through the weekend as low pressure over the southwest US passes south of the region and ridging edges into the western US.
1145 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Mid-upper wave spinning northeast into northwest Iowa early this morning, and will continue to progress toward southern Wisconsin by midday, as a northern stream trough drops southeast across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Thus far, the bulk of precipitation with the southern wave has remained near/south of a line from Platte to just northwest of Sioux Falls, to Marshall, with little if anything to the northwest of this line, though starting to see indications of light snow developing on radar in central/northeast South Dakota in response to the northern trough. Thus looking for highs within a few degrees of our daybreak readings, from the lower 30s north to around 40 southeast.
258 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue into this evening as a cold front moves through. Cooler and drier air will then filter in behind this front later tonight into Friday.
This combined with clearing skies will allow good radiational cooling causing early morning temperatures to be on the lower side of model guidance; therefore, have continued this trend in the official forecast. Dry northwest flow aloft due to a robust ridge over the western CONUS will keep the air mass over the region fairly dry with partly cloudy skies.
1125 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Cold front is just beginning to quickly move through far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, where a broken line of convection has developed. Expect the front and associated precipitation to clear the forecast area by mid/late morning, leaving dry and cooler conditions in its wake. Attention then turns west to the next large upper low currently centered over Las Vegas. As the center of the upper low approaches/moves directly over the area, enough moistening and ascent is expected for precipitation to develop across the area. Still, enough uncertainty could lend to an occasional mix of light snow at times, but with above freezing surface temperatures and the light amounts of precipitation, no impacts are expected in this area.
Light to moderate low level NE flow will become easterly and slacken as the high center/ridge axis get closer to FL. a few deg cooler across wind sheltered inland/northern locations, and a bit warmer along the barrier islands.
914 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 Morning Update: Main issue this morning was the patchy freezing fog. It seems to be confined to around the Milk River and north in Phillips and Valley counties, and over the higher elevations of northern Valley, Daniels and Sheridan counties. Otherwise, temperature range quite high ranging from 3 below at Med Lake to the lower 30s around Fort Peck lake. TFJ High pressure will remain over the region today. Upper ridge today and Friday will bring warmer temperatures and dry weather.
Inversion will intensify today so will see cooler temperatures beneath the inversion which will mainly be the Columbia Basin.
159 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 A cold front was positioned across southern Missouri this afternoon, roughly from Branson to Salem (2pm). South central Missouri, or areas near West Plains, Eminence, and Alton could receive the highest amounts of rain tonight.
156 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Cold front currently is pressing south through the northern Permian Basin with much cooler and much below normal temperatures behind it. Meanwhile an upper level low pressure area churning across southern Nevada will push quickly east to the western high plains by morning. Large scale lift will increase tonight as the upper low approaches and upglide will increase along and north of the cold front to produce the chance of showers and non severe thunderstorms. Prefer the lower nam guidance on temperatures these periods especially as low clouds may hang tough.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night): Low to mid level moisture will be high across the CWA tonight into early Friday before a cold front moves into the northern ranchlands Friday afternoon and into the Rio Grande Valley Fri evening. Will mention a slight chance of showers tonight through Friday before drier and cooler air filters into deep south Texas Fri night in the wake of the front. Some patchy fog may develop across the northern ranchlands late tonight into early Fri morning as winds should diminish across the Rio Grande Plains ahead of the cold front.
Fcst updates through the morning have addressed cold front progression and associated band of light precip. Trends through the afternoon remain largely consistent with continued advancement of the cold front and expanding precip coverage during the afternoon hours.
This leads to somewhat weak ascent later tonight into Friday as what's left of the Southwest trough moves over the area.
343 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 (Today-tonight): High pressure along the eastern US seaboard has begun to move into the Atlantic. Temperatures will be a touch warmer than today with areas getting into the 80s. Models continue to indicate a low pressure system will track to the northeast, along the Appalachian Mountains, with an associated cold front reaching well into the Gulf.
112 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure over the region will move offshore tonight.
Highs on Friday will be below normal again with high pressure dominating our area.
We are starting off with high pressure across the western Dakotas, and the exiting low across the Upper Great Lakes. Will continue with the forecast of teens for lows, with slightly cooler readings across the James River Valley.