Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
106 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Cold high pressure will continue to build across North Carolina today. Broad high pressure sits across the eastern United States. Overnight lows should range from freezing to the lower 40s in the southeast. At the surface, as the low skirts the Northeast US coast and away from the region Wed/Wed night, high pressure over the southern Plains will begin to ridge eastward. Central NC will be under the influence of this ridge through the end of the week, possibly building into the region over the weekend.
As we move into Tuesday, a low pressure system will be moving across the northern Gulf states with a cold front draped to the south across the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry and stable air covers Central America, the Western Caribbean, and the southern Gulf beneath a potent mean-layer ridge. Tropical dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s remain across the Keys, with a subtle dewpoint gradient noted in Central Florida. Congestus minimus over the Lower Keys has made it mostly cloudy at times, with temperatures only near 80.
(The rest of this afternoon ) A compact upper level low has ejected into OK this afternoon and is quickly moving east as reveled by model data and IR satellite. Temperatures will likely wet-bulb into the low 30s, just above freezing, which will lead to minor accumulations for southeast OK and eventually into northwest AR. Elsewhere, stubborn dry air in the lowest levels will limit precipitation amounts for the Tulsa area as well as areas further north.
In short, cutting under model guidance is the path for the rest of the day as temperatures linger in the low 20s. We see a trend in the models to warm the afternoon highs a little each day, still capping highs only in the mid to upper 40s by mid week, whilst keeping the overnight lows pretty much flat in the low teens.
As expected, the low level dry air to the north has stopped the advancement of this system to really anywhere near the tri-cities.
(Through Tonight) Strong high pressure will be located to the northeast of the region through Tonight. An inverted trough over the coastal waters will strengthen through Tonight, increasing clouds over eastern counties along with chances for mainly coastal showers. An area of low pressure will track east along the Gulf coast Tonight, with moisture spreading northeast toward region during the overnight hours.
Therefore think the highest precip rates will occur in the lake enhanced bands over northeast WI. But with temps forecast to warm into the middle 30s with surface wet bulb temps above freezing, some accumulations will be lost to melting. Highs will range from the low to mid 30s. Tuesday Night Through Monday Jet streaks moving around the upper trough over the Western Great lakes will produce periods of snow showers at times through the end of the week.
Have adjusted temperatures a degree or so warmer this evening as temperatures this afternoon have been warmer than model guidance has shown.
via surface pressure rises /renewed low-level cold advection/ associated with pronounced (~1040 mb) high pressure progressing southward through the Northern/Central Plains.
233 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Upper low pressure centered over south central Canada/far northern North Dakota continues to gradually churn south southeast through the forecast period.
via surface pressure rises /renewed low-level cold advection/ associated with pronounced (~1040 mb) high pressure progressing southward through the Northern/Central Plains. Cold pattern continues through the end of the week with an amplified ridge over the western CONUS and trough over the Great Lakes.
209 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Precipitation chances will increase tomorrow with the passage of low pressure system across the Ohio River Valley. Snow mixed with rain and light ice accumulation in the ridges of eastern Tucker County are expected. However, clearing from warm, southerly flow in eastern Ohio has caused temperatures to rebound to the low-40s. A new low pressure system will lift northeastwards from the Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. Winter weather impacts are expected for areas north of I-80 and within the ridges due to lingering cold air from high pressure and upsloping from prevailing easterly winds in eastern Tucker.
The aforementioned ridge will remain in place for Tuesday, resulting in cold, below-average temperatures in the 40s deg F and northerly winds.
533 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 (The rest of this afternoon ) A compact upper level low has ejected into OK this afternoon and is quickly moving east as reveled by model data and IR satellite. Temperatures will likely wet-bulb into the low 30s, just above freezing, which will lead to minor accumulations for southeast OK and eventually into northwest AR. Elsewhere, stubborn dry air in the lowest levels will limit precipitation amounts for the Tulsa area as well as areas further north.
This large upper level low will dominate the eastern U.
Otherwise, a mild night will turn into a warmer day for Tuesday ahead of that front. Northeast flow will become southerly on Tuesday as the next cold front approaches the region.
534 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Key Messages -Unchanging pattern for much of the short term -Clearing possible Tuesday night Overcast skies and flurries can be seen across most of the FA with temperatures in the low 20s. Weak low pressure is dominating the region, with smaller areas of vorticity across parts of southern MN and eastern ND.
Highly amplified pattern through the week with a ridge axis extending well north into western Canada/Alaska, with downstream longwave trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of North America.
(The rest of tonight) Upper low over central OK moving rapidly northeast this evening.
440 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as low pressure crosses the Ohio River Valley. However, clearing from warm, southerly flow in eastern Ohio has caused temperature to rebound to the low 40s. Low pressure will shift northeastward from the Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. Winter weather impacts are expected for areas north of I-80 and in the ridges due to lingering cold air from high pressure and prevailing easterly wind across the ridges in eastern Tucker County. Therefore, a Weather Weather Advisory has been issued for Tue into early Wed morning with the combination of snow and freezing rain in eastern Tucker. The Advisory could be expanded if probabilities increase for freezing rain.
700 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as low pressure crosses the Ohio River Valley. Low pressure will shift northeastward from the Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. Winter weather impacts are expected for areas north of I-80 and in the ridges due to lingering cold air from high pressure and prevailing easterly wind across the ridges in eastern Tucker County. Therefore, a Weather Weather Advisory has been issued for Tue into early Wed morning with the combination of snow and freezing rain in eastern Tucker. The Advisory could be expanded if probabilities increase for freezing rain.
848 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as low pressure crosses the Ohio River Valley. Low pressure will shift northeastward from the Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. Winter weather impacts are expected for areas north of I-80 and in the ridges due to lingering cold air from high pressure and prevailing easterly wind across the ridges in eastern Tucker County. Therefore, a Weather Weather Advisory has been issued for Tue into early Wed morning with the combination of snow and freezing rain in eastern Tucker. The Advisory could be expanded if probabilities increase for freezing rain.
521 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as low pressure crosses the Ohio River Valley. Low pressure will shift northeastward from the Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. Winter weather impacts are expected for areas north of I-80 and in the ridges due to lingering cold air from high pressure and prevailing easterly wind across the ridges in eastern Tucker County. Therefore, a Weather Weather Advisory has been issued for Tue into early Wed morning with the combination of snow and freezing rain in eastern Tucker. The Advisory could be expanded if probabilities increase for freezing rain.
Dry air entrainment associated with a strong ridge of high pressure along the entire West Coast will continue across the region.
Lows tonight into early tomorrow morning will fall into the 20s and lower 30s for most locations along and north of I-10 and across the higher terrain, with comparatively warmer temperatures in the middle 30s to around 40 degrees confined to far southern areas. Dry, quiescent conditions will continue through Tuesday night, though cloud cover will yield temperatures a few degrees warmer than tonight, with lows in the middle 20s to upper 30s across the region.
Also, with clouds moving in ahead of the rain, temperatures should only drop a couple more degrees, so everyone should remain comfortably above freezing.
Patchy freezing fog is possible during the late night and early morning hours.
Upper low pressure centered over south central Canada/far northern North Dakota continues to gradually churn south southeast through the forecast period.
Satellite water vapor imagery shows this low spinning just off the San Francisco shoreline.
Widespread warm advection showers over a majority of the area, with area of strongest isentropic ascent just N of the warm front situated right along the N Gulf Coast.
241 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 Skies will remain overcast today with increasing chances of rain through this afternoon as a weak low pressure system crosses the region.
Newest models guidance shows between 100 and 300 J/KG of elevated CAPE north of this feature along an inverted trough axis. Strong low/mid level forcing associated is progged along this inverted trough axis by models.
1033 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 (The rest of tonight) Upper low over central OK moving rapidly northeast this evening.
This looks to remain in place overnight and like last night, will keep temperatures warmer then current forecast guidance suggests. Stratus may redevelop overnight in the Camas Prairie and Western Magic Valley and possible move into the Lower Treasure Valley from Baker County.
Precipitation type has been predominately snow across central KS where temperatures are colder, with a rain/snow mix across south-central and southeast KS where wet- bulb temperatures are hovering either side of freezing. After tonight, the large-scale synoptic pattern advertised by the deterministic and ensemble consensus supports mostly dry weather and well below normal temperatures through at least the weekend, as an expansive longwave trough digs and remains anchored over central and eastern North America.
A slug of deep moisture combined with increasing lift is creating a swath of precipitation from the Lower MS Valley into Mid MS Valley. Temps are mainly in the lower 40s so no impacts will occur.
Mainly rain is expected for most of the area, with a rain snow mix forecast tonight across the I 80 corridor and ridge tops. Snow and light freezing rain is expected across eastern Tucker county. Low pressure will shift northeastward from the Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. Winter weather impacts are expected for areas north of I-80 and in the ridges due to lingering cold air from high pressure and prevailing easterly wind across the ridges in eastern Tucker County. Therefore, a Weather Weather Advisory has been issued for Tue into early Wed morning with the combination of snow and freezing rain in eastern Tucker. The Advisory could be expanded if probabilities increase for freezing rain.
Expect afternoon highs up into the upper 30s(F) to the lower/mid 40s(F). We see a trend in the models to warm the afternoon highs a little each day, still capping highs only in the mid to upper 40s by mid week, whilst keeping the overnight lows pretty much flat in the low teens.
Lastly, a pocket of relatively drier air is pivoting around the southwestern periphery of a low level ridge centered near Bermuda. Said low level ridge will hold in place for the overnight and continue to provide the relatively drier air. This in combination with mean layer ridging across the Gulf of Mexico will limit rain chances through the overnight.
803 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022 North/south Stationary front/trough over the area keeping light snow/flurries over the central and southern zones but satellite and radar showing mid-level clouds/echoes moving south so snow expected to begin winding down from Glasgow south.
150 AM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 A blocking ridge of high pressure remains in place near Vancouver Island this morning. Overnight satellite imagery shows areas of freezing fog in the Teton Valley with perhaps a trend towards additional development into the Snake Plain. Another short- fused freezing fog advisory may be needed if these conditions become widespread. By mid/late morning, clouds should begin to diminish leading towards mostly sunny skies over much of the area this afternoon but temperatures remain WELL below normal for this time of year with high temps expected to stay below freezing just about everywhere.
This cloud cover will help to keep overnight temperatures a touch warmer than this morning but with most locations still falling back into the 20s.
While the low levels in model soundings are currently somewhat dry, they will saturate rather quickly with the arrival of the aforementioned low level jet. No major changes to the forecast have been made-- temperatures will still remain in the upper 30s or warmer and we still expect precipitation to linger tonight through the late morning hours.
A slug of deep moisture combined with increasing lift is creating a swath of precipiation from the Lower MS Valley into Mid MS Valley. Temps are mainly in the lower 40s so no impacts will occur.
Broad upper level trough builds in over Central and Eastern U.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb high off the Pacific NW coast, a trough in southern CA and a deep trough in the upper Great Lakes 00z Wed. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep and broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. 12z Fri with a ridge off the west coast. This ridge moves onto the west coast by 12z Sun and then helps to push the trough further east into the eastern U. A few gusts up to 25 knots are possible today near Isle Royale as a low pressure digs SE towards Chicago.
1028 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Today's upper low has begun to eject to the northeast across the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will thus set up another good radiational cooling night, and we have favored the cooler end of guidance for tonight's lows as a result. An upper level short wave trough moving across South Dakota and Nebraska will reinforce the cold air mass early Tuesday helping keep high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below average despite nearly full insolation.
Expect afternoon highs up into the upper 30s(F) to the lower/mid 40s(F).
Near the surface, a small area of high pressure has developed in extreme southwest Kansas. In short, cutting under model guidance is the path for the rest of the day as temperatures linger in the low 20s. We see a trend in the models to warm the afternoon highs a little each day, still capping highs only in the mid to upper 40s by mid week, whilst keeping the overnight lows pretty much flat in the low teens.
Travel impacts are unlikely as temperatures remain above freezing. Combined with temps running slightly warmer, this will shorten the window for accumulation to occur where rain is able to transition to snow.
Discussion: A low pressure system will track from the Gulf Coast to the Mid- Atlantic region through the period. Currently, the highest observed wind gusts are at Cove Mountain, up to 40 mph. Tonight, the low to midlevel flow shifts to a westerly direction as the low moves across the Carolinas. Cold advection develops and quickly drops the freezing level between 04-06Z.
Satellite imagery this morning showed high clouds moving across the area under short wave ridging aloft. Water vapor clearly showed a closed upper low just south of San Francisco while an upper level trof was diving south across the northern Plains. After another chilly/cold start to the day highs this afternoon will mostly be 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. The closed low will continue to move south along the California coast today and open up later tonight into Wednesday morning over southern California. The tail end of the Plains upper trof will dive south across AZ on Wednesday. Cool northerly flow will maintain below normal temperatures into the upcoming weekend as another dry upper level trof passes thru this weekend.
436 AM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 Latest 500 mb analyses showed a short wave trough moving southward on the western side of the long wave trough over the center of the nation. However, the cessation of snow showers is expected to be short- lived as divergence associated with jet on the western flanks of the trough over the Plains generates enough lift to generate another round of snow showers over the northern Colorado mountains late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.
The low clouds and fog will lift and dissipate over the next few hours with the high clouds expected to continue spreading across the region throughout the day. Southerly winds will bring low level moisture northward ahead of the approaching cold front a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm moving into the northern waters and northern Nature Coast in the afternoon. Broad upper level trough builds in over Central and Eastern U. However, a cold front will push southward into the Florida Peninsula starting tonight and into Wednesday.
Upper level analysis shows low pressure remaining over southern Manitoba, with strong jet to the west from western Canada to the northern Rockies. A series of disturbances continues to rotate around the low and across the region. Additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are highly probable through the midday hours across these areas, with lighter amounts across the lower elevations to the foothills and over the more downsloped areas. The next disturbance will then approach the area late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with an accompanying cold front passage as well.
The 500 mb will move east later tonight and Wednesday looks to be a break in the light snow/flurry action until later in the day as next wave and cold front arrives from the north.
Patchy early morning freezing fog is possible, especially over locations near rivers or lakes. Satellite fog product and Nevada Department of Transportation webcams are showing patchy freezing fog and/or low clouds forming in portions of central Nevada this morning. Updated the wx grids to include patchy freezing fog in some of the valleys across northern Nye and White Pine counties. There could be some patchy freezing fog in some of the valley locations but that is about it.
An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western Caribbean, with anticyclonic flow trajectories and large-scale subsidence extending northward over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. Recent geostationary satellite moisture channel imagery shows a large swath of very dry air in the middle and upper troposphere associated with this anticyclone.
A mid level ridge stretched from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Keys is promoting relatively dry and stable weather conditions in the Keys and most of the local waters. Current temperatures are near the mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. A mid level ridge will cause light to gentle breezes in the Keys local waters through Wednesday.
Clear skies cover the region as the closed low is moving south into central California. Current temperatures are running milder across much of the area with north to east breezes, but areas lacking wind are cooler and will see some areas of frost again early this morning. Breezy conditions will continue today and Wednesday as the low moves toward SoCal and ridging continues to build over NorCal in its wake. The upper level ridge will then settle over NorCal for the second half part of the week.
522 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (Today through Wednesday) A broad upper level trough covers the country this morning with the flow over Texas curved slightly anticyclonically. Low pressure at the surface has the winds across our CWA from the north to northwest. Cloudy skies on the backside of the low still cover parts of our eastern counties. The low level winds will start from the north today and turn to the northeast through the afternoon. This is bringing cooler air. Cloudy skies overnight will keep temperatures a little warmer Wednesday morning.
An associated 850 mb low is passing through the CWA as well, with the CWA being on the cooler side of the system. Mid-level frontogenesis was also at play in the southern CWA as the associated warm front moved through earlier this evening. As the low continues to move to the northeast and all sources of forcing begin to diminish and move out of the CWA, so will the snow. Jaja Sensible weather in the extended will be dictated by the same upper level trough that is currently bringing snow to the region. Meager instability in the low levels exists as well, due to warmer surface temperatures below cooler air aloft.
Weak northerly flow aloft will persist over the region the next couple of days as a strong ridge of high pressure remains along the Pacific coast. Widespread low stratus clouds and localized freezing fog will continue to be present in most valley locations today through Wednesday.
(Today) A low level cloud deck remained over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning as the backside of the upper level low continued to lift off to the northeast. high temps today in the low/mid 40s are forecast for much of the CWA.
Decreasing winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop below freezing everywhere except the Rio Grande valley in the Big Bend. Winds will shift from the northwest to northeast throughout the day and advect in cooler temperatures with highs only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper trough dropping south along the front range of the Rockies will cause the mid levels to moisten and upslope flow in the Guadalupe Mountains may allow for some light snow showers or flurries overnight as temperatures drop back down below freezing.
533 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Radar shows rain has spread across the entire midstate early this morning in association with an area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast. Wednesday looks several degrees cooler than today with highs only in the 40s due to morning cloud cover. Another round of sprinkles and flurries are possible late Wednesday afternoon and early evening per the HRRR as a strong cold front pushes through the region.
The lake effect snow bands will be modulated by passing upper level disturbances and wind shifts in the lower levels.
308 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 KEY MESSAGES 1) Light snow or flurries continue Today into Wednesday morning with some light accumulations possible, highest east of the Buffalo Ridge.
Will keep some mention of DZ/FZDZ depending on where temps attempt to cool off a deg or two at or to below freezing. with some mid to upper 30s possible in the higher terrain of the Ozarks.
Cold front will move across the area this afternoon into the evening bringing rain to an end. East central GA will remain a bit warmer as front slowly makes its way across the CWA tonight.
(Today through Wednesday) An area of low pressure over the North Central Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across the Southeastern United States and into the Northeastern United States. This will allow for an associated weak cold front to move south and through South Florida late Wednesday. This will allow for a few showers to affect South Florida ahead and along the cold front.