Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
648 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure will maintain primarily dry and seasonal weather today. The high will gradually shift to off the southeast coast this weekend while a front moves in from the northwest.
/issued 312 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure will gradually become the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA as it replaces closed 500 mb low pressure retrograding towards the Desert Southwest. The mid-level ridge will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, a welcome respite from the past few days of flooding rainfall.
High pressure continues to expand over interior NorCal through the weekend with the warmest day still expected to be Saturday. The warmest locations are expected in the northern Sacramento Valley with highs anywhere from 100 to 110 degrees, with "cooler" temperatures further south due to the Delta influence.
Temperatures will continue to climb over the next 48 hours as stronger ridging builds into the region. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Friday through Saturday Night/ A slow moving upper low will continue a westward track on Friday allowing stronger subtropical ridging to build in over the Southern Plains. With the upper trough well removed from the area on Saturday and ridging firmly in place, a dry forecast is expected with temperatures approaching 100 degrees in many locations.
Deep-layer ridging is centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico with an upper-level trough oriented NE to SW across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. A diffuse surface boundary, loosely rooted from an area of low pressure off of the southeastern coastline, is oriented northwest to southeast over the area and is being slowly pushed towards Mississippi as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley region. The aforementioned ridge will build over the Southern Plains tomorrow and become a more dominant feature pertaining to our weather pattern. 8 inches) as drier mid-level air rotates around the ridge with scattered thunderstorms following more of a diurnal timeline. Highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will result in heat indices near 100-102 degrees.
1231 PM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 The latest water vapor images and RAP model 500-mb height analysis showed an upper high anchored over the Southwest U.
Subsidence underneath ridge is allowing for mostly sunny skies per visible satellite imagery. 12z GFS/NAM suggest warmer air aloft advects into the forecast area behind cold front with 925mb temperatures warming to plus 26 to plus 28 degree celsius by 21z Saturday. The combination of dewpoints in the lower 70s or 70.
This afternoon through Saturday night The ridge will flattened over the Northern Rockies today, as the trough and cold front associated with the upper low over Canada moves over MT. A broad ridge will rebuild along the spine of the Rockies Saturday.
As an upper trough continues to advance east into the Northern Plains, stronger flow aloft continues to encroach on the forecast area.
Discussion: Dry northwest flow aloft and surface ridging will remain across the southern Appalachians but a general eastward shift of the ridge axis anticipated.
Weak high pressure is over Arkansas at this time but it will be strengthening in the coming days. Today Through Saturday Night As of 09Z, a small area of showers with occasional thunder continues across east-central AR in response to a weak disturbance that is currently transiting the state, generally along the northern periphery of an upper ridge over the northern Gulf. Radar trends and hi- res guidance do suggest a gradual decrease in convective activity over the next few hours, but more scattered activity is expected this afternoon in response to diurnal heating as the weakness in upper ridging persists. Meanwhile, as a mid/upper low across TX continues retrograding west underneath an expanding upper ridge across the western CONUS, temps will begin to climb in earnest locally.
An upper level low was located over far west Texas and continuing westward. Meanwhile, an upper ridge was starting to build in across eastern and central Texas. Tomorrow, the ridge should build in nicely, allowing conditions to be hot and dry.
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper level trough off the east coast US and upper level ridging stretching up into the upper Great Lakes and lower Hudson Bay. At the surface, the local area remains under control of high pressure to the north over OH. High pressure shifts to New England overnight into early Saturday and then moves off the coast by Saturday evening.
Upper level high will be gaining strength over the weekend across the southern Plains. Ridging will extend eastward with some fairly good anti-cyclonic flow. In the ext fcst, Upper high to strengthen across the central Plains by mid week. Eastward ridge also strengthens with a continuation of a strong anti cyclonic flow within the northerly fetch. As for temperatures, it looks like highs in the lower 90s for early in the week.
High pressure builds in tonight through Saturday with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures expected.
High pressure ridging and very weak flow aloft continued at midday, with 12z NAM/GFS both initializing 2-3 mph winds at 500 mb this morning, with heights near 594 dm. Surface observations are running about 4-5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, and the progressive warming trend continues.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): The spigots have turned off for time being as a retrograding 596mb high pressure ridge builds into the western Gulf and Texas. Dry air associated with the ridge is depicted by the GFS time height showing 850-300mb layered mean RH below 30 percent and forecast pwats dipping below the 10th percentile or 0. Temperatures in most cases with the strong ridge would be well above normal, however with the very wet soil from the 10 to 15 inches of rain so far this month in the mid and lower RGV high temperatures should only warm up to near seasonal norms of mid to upper 90s.
Dew point temperatures will surge into the lower to middle 70s across the entire CWA on Saturday. Combined with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, heat index values will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s, with the highest values across southeast Missouri.
1018 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Upper ridge to slowly build over the region this weekend, with warmer temperatures and corresponding heat index values to increase as well.
In response, an upper ridge which extends from the eastern Gulf to near the ArkLaTex retreats from the eastern Gulf while expanding over the southern/central Plains and building into the southeast states. Lows tonight range from the lower/mid 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs this afternoon and on Saturday will be mostly in the lower 90s except for mid 90s over portions of south central Alabama.
In the midlevels a broad ridge sits over the area, with no real focus on the highest portion of the H5 ridge, but the broad scale of the ridge will help keep the majority of the plains region warm/moist and void of much if any precipitation.
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will move offshore early Saturday. Sandwiched between the expansive heat ridge centered over the western and central US and an upper trough over the NE US, northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Carolinas.
High pressure building continues to dry out the atmosphere across South Texas. /issued 312 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure will gradually become the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA as it replaces closed 500 mb low pressure retrograding towards the Desert Southwest. The mid-level ridge will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, a welcome respite from the past few days of flooding rainfall.
Beyond that forecast still on track which is that upper level ridge will retrograde back over California slowly.
Lower rain chances today as high pressure builds across the CWA and low level moisture decreases.
Dry northwest flow aloft and surface ridging will keep conditions mostly dry. Surface ridging will keep winds light and variable.
19Z values in the lower to mid 70s. A dry cold front sweeps south Saturday, ushering in much drier near surface air. Temperatures are still likely to rise into the lower 90s, but with drier air, heat index values will remain below 100 degrees and no advisory is expected.
An inverted trough over western Texas/New Mexico will continue to propagate westward into Arizona this weekend.
1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure will maintain primarily dry and seasonal weather today. The high will gradually shift to off the southeast coast this weekend while a front moves in from the northwest.
Highs are likely to be in the lower to mid 90s across the region. With high pressure settling in, we can expect higher daytime temperatures tomorrow compared to today. Highs will be in the mid 90s for much of the region, with a few 100s around Graham to Breckenridge.
/Issued 1018 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ Upper ridge to slowly build over the region this weekend, with warmer temperatures and corresponding heat index values to increase as well.
132 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Showers and storms are possible today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
This has allowed partly cloudy skies and temperatures into the low to mid 90s today. Saturday will see less clouds as the ridge aloft supplies sinking over Texas and Louisiana and temperatures back into the low to mid 90s.
Fair weather conditions will prevail across SE Texas for the next several days as high pressure and a drier air mass dominates the local weather pattern. Lows Saturday night will once again range between the low 70s along the northern sectors up to the low 80s along the coasts.
A weak cold front will continue to move south and eastward through tonight. Generally highs on Saturday will be in the low 80s across the north and low 90s across the south. The lowest RH looks to be found in the southwest, although most areas will see low values in the teens and 20s, except across the north.
Upper trof will move over south central Canada tonight to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. The associated surface cold front will settle southward across Iowa and Nebraska and into far northern Kansas by Saturday evening.
1015 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 A few storms noted on radar west of Lafayette this morning as temperatures are now in the mid 80s header towards the low 90s along the I-10 corridor and mid 90s in the lakes region of southeast Texas and central Louisiana. Rain chances for today have taper off as a result of high pressure over the area.
215 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure continues to hold over the area into the weekend.
223 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure continues to hold over the area into the weekend.
210 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states this morning will drift to just off Delmarva late today.
248 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure will maintain control through much of Saturday, with seasonable and rain free conditions for the Commonwealth.
1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Synoptic scale ridging will setup over the Central Plains and Nation's Heartland with near to above normal temperatures occurring Friday and Saturday. Central and south central Kansas will likely see temperatures in the low 90s to upper 90s on Friday and the mid 90s to 1ow 100s on Saturday.
1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 (Today and tonight) Some low clouds advected into the area overnight on the southeast side of the upper level low. The upper low at 0830Z was located between Snyder and Lubbock. As the upper level low continues to moves away from West Central Texas today, the low clouds will gradually burn off by 16Z or 11 AM CDT. Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny, breezy and warm today over most of the area with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Tonight, West Central Texas will be located between an upper level low over central New Mexico and an upper level high pressure ridge across East Texas.
In conjunction a ridge will extend to our east. Highs will be in the lower 90s with heat indies nearing 100F. Upper high will remained socked over the southern Plains through mid-week.
Upper ridge over the southern plains builds eastward into the southeastern U. Weak upper low that was displaced by the expanding ridge off of the SC/GA/FL coast meanders around that area and takes on increasingly tropical characteristics. However, gradient that sets up between this system and high pressure, both surface and aloft, to the north of the area drags some drier air down the lee of the Appalachians into the southern portion of the forecast area, shifting the better coverage of convection back north.
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states this morning will drift to just off Delmarva late today.
643 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Weak cold frontal boundary continues working across the southeastern forecast area. A weak cold front will continue to move south and eastward through tonight. Generally highs on Saturday will be in the low 80s across the north and low 90s across the south. The lowest RH looks to be found in the southwest, although most areas will see low values in the teens and 20s, except across the north.
901 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure will maintain seasonable and dry weather through much of Saturday.
595 upper level ridge sitting over the northern Gulf bringing some of the highest heat index values so far this summer with some areas ranging 108 and higher. POPS remain isolated this afternoon as subsidence from ridge will keep things high and dry through tonight. Upper level ridge will move back westward into east Texas over the weekend. This will allow for a weakness of ridging and and open the Gulf a bit allowing for a weak easterly wave to ride along to the east of the western ridge.
530 PM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 The latest water vapor images and RAP model 500-mb height analysis showed an upper high anchored over the Southwest U.
1003 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Mean layer ridging continues to drift westward over the Gulf while elongated low pressure east of the Florida Peninsula with an attendant weak trough extending toward south Florida is leaving a col region in the Straits of Florida. A zone forecast update is proposed as recent experimental CAM guidance with the Caribbean domain had suggested an uptick, although abit earlier than experienced, of the Lower Keys convection this evening and suggesting another increase in coverage during the pre-dawn hours. Weak high pressure will reach west across the Florida Keys and South Florida for the next several days.
Overnight lows will be seasonable in the lower 70s. On Saturday, increased upr-lvl ridging will take place over the region as an upr trough pulls warmer low/mid lvl air from the central Miss Valley into our region. This will take place as a col in the low-lvl pressure/wind environment moves across the area.
Otherwise, light/calm winds will prevail with temperatures bottoming out in the low/mid 60s northward, mid/upr 60s southward. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 92 73 91 73 / 10 20 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 93 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 69 92 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 90 68 90 70 / 10 10 10 40 30.
The upper level low currently sitting over central New Mexico will play a role in overcoming this inversion by this evening.
/issued 211 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): The spigots have turned off for time being as a retrograding 596mb high pressure ridge builds into the western Gulf and Texas. Dry air associated with the ridge is depicted by the GFS time height showing 850-300mb layered mean RH below 30 percent and forecast pwats dipping below the 10th percentile or 0. Temperatures in most cases with the strong ridge would be well above normal, however with the very wet soil from the 10 to 15 inches of rain so far this month in the mid and lower RGV high temperatures should only warm up to near seasonal norms of mid to upper 90s.
This afternoon through Saturday night The ridge will flatten over the Northern Rockies today, as the trough and cold front associated with the upper low over Canada moves over MT. A broad ridge will rebuild along the spine of the Rockies Saturday.
A developing N/NE flow in the low to mid levels may transport some of this activity back closer toward the east coast toward morning. Elongated area of low pressure east of FL, designated as Invest 90L will produce a W/SW flow south of the Cape and N/NW winds to the north.
High pressure is making for almost perfect flying conditions, but with crossover temps looking pretty close tonight, CSV/CKV look to get to at least IFR with vis, if not worse, between 08 and 12Z.
Tonight and tomorrow: Sub-tropical ridging will continue to build across the region which will further support a warming trend as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the low to mid 70s. Another hot day is on tap for tomorrow with afternoon highs once again climbing into the low to mid 90s. /TW/ Highs this weekend warm into the lower to middle 90s F as upper ridging, centered over the Intermountain region, dominates the pattern. While the ArkLaMiss won't be underneath the core of the high and will thus be spared the stifling weather experienced further west, increasing upper heights (2-4 dam above average and 6- 8 dam at 500 mb above what we saw earlier this week) will allow for significantly warmer and drier weather.
609 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure will maintain control through much of Saturday, with seasonable and rain free conditions for the Commonwealth.
A training weak cold front is analyzed from near Pine Ridge to Alliance to Sidney. The weak cold front will continue southeast overnight and be located across northern KS by Saturday afternoon. Weak CAA will filter across the area, and highs should generally hold in the lower to mid 90s (still hot).
Mid-levels dry out as the LLJ veers Saturday morning, but boundary layer moisture lingers until the cold front moves through. This could allow for isolated severe thunderstorms along the cold front Saturday afternoon. A much drier air mass moves in behind the cold front late on Saturday. The overall convective environment does not seem particularly conducive to severe thunderstorms tonight with maximum CAPE collocated with the lowest shear values.
A boundary or trough. from an area of low pressure east of FL. accompany this boundary/trough and are supporting showers and a few showers spreading south tonight. A boundary/trough drifting south across the area will impact the aerodromes with SHRA and a few TSRA during the overnight hours. The boundary/trough is expected to stall over south FL during Sat with enough moisture in it's wake for ISOLD-SCT TSRA AFT 15Z for all terminals. High pressure continues in the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days as a boundary/trough. from low pressure in the Atlantic. with this low pressure area but details remain uncertain at this time.
A dry air mass and a building ridge of high pressure has quickly replaced the thunderstorms from last night.
Any stronger cells that may manage to develop could produce strong wind gusts in the high PW environment (~2 inches) and in consideration of marginal low-lvl lapse rates (>7 C/km) in SW portions of our area. On Saturday, increased upr-lvl ridging will take place over the region as an upr trough pulls warmer low/mid lvl air from the central Miss Valley into our region. This will take place as a col in the low-lvl pressure/wind environment moves across the area.
Expect winds to relax by sunset this evening with mostly clear skies (VFR) overnight as mid level high pressure moves over the region. Expect mostly clear skies (VFR) with high pressure persisting aloft.
High pressure to the west will turn winds more SW/S and open the gulf moisture. Will continue to re-evaluate this for the 12Z TAFs as the high resolution CAM models come in.
Upper trof will move over south central Canada tonight to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. The associated surface cold front will settle southward across Iowa and Nebraska and into far northern Kansas by Saturday evening. While details still need to be ironed out, the current signal is for the upper level ridge to become elongated from the central Rockies to the Ozarks as the upper level trough slides southeastward across the northern Plains. Father south and west, mid level temperatures will be warmer thus limiting instability in this region; however, we cannot rule out storms sneaking into this part of the CWA especially if the front sags farther south than currently forecasted.
A trailing cold front was bisecting portions of the Central and Northern Plains early this morning.
This is when the cold front/outflow boundary will be pushing through the CWA. Bulk 0 to 6 km shear values during this time climb to around 35 to 40 knots with the highest values across the north.
(Today and tonight) A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the Southern Plains today.
Tonight Through Sunday An upper ridge of high pressure continues to be centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico with an upper trough over the northeast. The high will expand to the northwest in the coming days. By Saturday, this high will overtake most of the country with the exception being the northeast. As high pressure builds over the state this weekend, high temperatures will slowly warm, and scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible. High temperatures will mainly be in the lower to mid 90s.
With dew points in the lower to mid 70s and continued light winds on the periphery of high pressure to our east, patchy fog development is again possible, especially over portions of east central Illinois closest to the ridge axis. A cold front will slowly drop into the area from northern IL tomorrow night, moving into a very humid airmass.
/Issued 1139 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ /Overnight through Sunday Night/ Mid level ridging will be firmly in place across the Southern Plains through the weekend resulting in warm rain free conditions across the region.
202 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure slides east today with increasing humidity.
243 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Current surface map places weak cold front through western SoutH Dakota. Return flow continues into Sunday as warm front lifts northward.
Under clear skies and calm winds, temperatures early this morning have dipped into the lower to mid 60s in rural areas, while more urban areas remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Northwesterly flow will prevail aloft as broad upper ridging persists over the western two-thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure over central Ontario will send a cold front towards the OH Valley, approaching southern IN by Sunday morning.
Today Through Sunday Night Arkansas will remain under the influence of strong high pressure centered over Texas through the period.
Overall a sunny day with breezy winds that will help today feel much cooler than yesterday. Clear skies tonight as high pressure continues to dominate, with lows falling into the mid 50s for much of the area. Temperatures across the south will be a few degrees warmer than today, climbing into the lower 90s but still under a much drier airmass.
High confidence exists in overnight lows only reaching the low 70s across much of the eastern counties, and less confidence in the western counties where temperatures would be anywhere form upper 60s to low 70s Sunday morning.
The modified cold front will lose momentum as the wave departs but should sag south through the area from late this afternoon into the day on Sunday. Heat remains a factor for the afternoon and into the early evening hours today as the H85 temps range into the low 20C range. This current advisory should work out over the areas that will still see the highest moisture content in the airmass along with sufficient heating.