Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Recent IR trends show the complex starting to shift to the east-southeast, likely following the warm frontal boundary. The latest surface map features a warm front aligned from eastern Kansas to western and southern Kentucky. Aloft, zonal flow is in place across the central CONUS, with embedded short wave troughs moving east across the region. The next area of showers and thunderstorms will move in from southern IL and western KY this evening, out ahead of an embedded short wave trough. This, along with aid from the approaching warm front and an increasing low level jet will sustain the convection as it approaches our west closer to the 03 to 04z time frame. In general, areas near the I-64 corridor will likely see the higher totals.
With cooler and more stable air behind this boundary, much of the convection has dissipated, leaving just very isolated weak showers across portions of northern and central Utah.
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A weak disturbance and associated cold front were pushing east across the area this evening. A weak front will move through this evening with the only noticeable change being slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.
Freezing level was at 15,800 feet, the -20C level was 27,000 feet and the wet bulb zero level was at 14,800 feet. /issued 329 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ Current synopsis shows a weak upper level trough passing across the mid Mississippi Valley while the Bermuda ridge is extending westward across the Gulf of Mexico. The local area will not see any appreciable impact from that trough. So for the next several days, it appears at least a low end rain chance will be possible each day as dewpoints should still be in the lower to mid 70s and pw's around 1.
As for temps, while there is some CAA expected tonight, cloud cover and dewpoints in the 60s or warmer shud help keep temps from dropping too much. Tilly Ongoing TSRA shud slowly move ewd/sewd out of the region during the day Mon as the upper trof pulls ewd thru the region. Have trended temps slightly warmer given the progd 850mb temps in the 20 to 24C range. Mdls continue to prog cooler mid level temps allowing for at least a chance of TSRA more or less each day.
934 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. The models keep the frontal boundary just north of the forecast area with a weak pressure trough in the area. Flat upper ridging should continue. Surface ridging should continue to extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north in the forecast area, the models show lee-side troughing continuing.
Meanwhile, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Oklahoma and perhaps across far southeastern Kansas along and north of a warm front.
Expect mostly clear skies overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. However, MVFR ceilings will be on the increase after 04/10Z due to increasing flow in the lower levels.
712 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Tonight, The models keep the frontal boundary just north of the forecast area with a weak pressure trough in the area. Flat upper ridging should continue. Surface ridging should continue to extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north in the forecast area, the models show lee-side troughing continuing.
At this point, am concerned with the convergence of MCV in SEMO, the warm front and convection further south of the warm front. On the mesoscale, migratory waves move along the low amplitude trough with minor lows embedded in the flow.
338 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad, impressive trough across much of the CONUS. In our neck of the woods, Arctic high pressure will keep the region cold and dry through the period. Given the ridge sliding through bringing light winds, mainly clear skies, and snow cover still present (especially over north-central MO), think temperatures will get very cold tonight. The one mitigating factor will be the ridge sliding to the southeast by 12Z Saturday morning, which could lead to some weak WSW return flow across north-central MO. The ridge will slide to the east-southeast on Saturday.
304 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 18Z surface data has arctic high pressure from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes. The dry atmosphere is helping to slowly dissipate clouds so there may or may not be some isolate flurries in the highway 20 corridor.
347 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 As high pressure gradually weakens and shifts east into the Atlantic waters this afternoon, moisture content will be increasing with mid to low level cloud cover moving into South Florida. This is associated to a warm front over the Gulf waters which will make its way into S FL. Weather will continue to deteriorate tonight into Saturday as warm front approaches Florida. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s over the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area where some peeks of sun are possible early in the day, and in the 70s elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually fall through the 70s north of a Naples to West Palm Beach line during the mid and late afternoon after the cold frontal passage.
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley lingers, keeping mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mtns.
200 PM MST Fri Jan 6 2017 Easterly winds behind a cold front will push Canadian air into New Mexico and west Texas tonight. As a result cooler below normal temperatures are expected on Saturday under mostly sunny skies.
From water vapor satellite images we find a strong trough with a equally strong short wave digging through the Front Range, while the short wave is moving through the Texas Panhandle Plains.
245 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 243 PM CST A 1031mb high is centered over the Central Plains this afternoon with ridging extending east across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley providing relatively quiet weather conditions across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. Some mid and high clouds are possible, particularly across the western half of the CWA tomorrow, but otherwise expect quiet weather to continue as upper ridge begins to build over the region. Deubelbeiss 320 AM CST A large high pressure system moves over the region Saturday evening through the rest of the weekend.
SHORT TERM:(Now through Saturday Night): Northerly low level cold air advection pattern is well entrenched across deep south TX in the wake of a strong cold front that passed by to the south early this morning. The low level pressure gradient remains strong over the region and am expecting turbulent mixing to keep low temperatures in the upper 20s/lower 30s.
Although we believe we shouldn't see any accumulations even in the coldest air across the extreme nrn areas as ag reports show soil temps remain well above freezing, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas for the remainder of the day as some very small accumulations look possible on elevated roadways especially later this afternoon. With temperatures forecast to remain above freezing this afternoon, I am not adding any ice accumulation. Tonight's low temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s in most places, so have issued a hard freeze warning for much of the region.
254 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 High pressure will keep the weather dry but cold through the weekend.
A mid level trof axis is progged to pass through our region tonight, inviting another surge of arctic air in. As the high moves east on Sun, temperatures may barely get above freezing in southeastern MO and the Purchase area of KY.
229 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 A weak high pressure center will slowly move out of the region late this evening allowing winds to turn back to the South.
A broad, weak, warm ridge resides over the California with some nosing up into Nevada and southern Idaho. Upstream the arctic air over Yukon has partially spilled out into the Gulf of Alaska in the form of a trough. This afternoon through tonight: A frontal boundary between the modified arctic air and the warm nose of the broad ridge to the east has stalled over central Montana.
Expect conditions to improve later this afternoon and evening as the upper trough moves into and through Middle Tennessee and finally pushes the moisture eastward.
Temps to plummet tonight as a very cold/dry Arctic airmass filters into the region tonight in the wake of the trof.
*WEATHER IMPACTS: The arrival of sleet, freezing rain, and snow will affect portions of central Alabama this morning. 7C; this corresponds to roughly 4,500 feet of above-freezing temperatures atop a shallow subfreezing wedge just above the surface. Based on temperatures at the surface and upstairs, sleet and freezing will be the primary p-type morning into afternoon; however, the northern fringes of our service area could see instances of snow as they are closer to the deeper column of southward-moving freezing air from northern Alabama. Wintry precipitation (sleet and freezing rain) will affect all TAF sites excluding MGM-TOI this afternoon (rain is expected for those two terminals). The highest liquid totals will be across the southeast counties, but sleet and snow accumulations of 2 or more inches will occur across portions of the area.
410 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 A ridge of Arctic high pressure will continue to extend into the region tonight and Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will pass across the Great Lakes Saturday night.
The patch of broken stratocumulus clouds with MVFR ceilings was caused by a weak short wave moving over the IL river valley, embedded in a large upper level trof over the Midwest. 1032 mb arctic high pressure over the central plains and ridging eastward into the Ohio river valley will keep fair wx over most of area through tonight. Cold Arctic high pressure ridge, currently in the plains, will slowly drift into the CWA today and into tonight.
At the surface, arctic high pressure was centered over the Canadian Front Range of Alberta/Saskatchewan. with the exiting high pressure well to our south in the Southern Plains. Between the two arctic highs was a low pressure area. with broad low pressure over the Rockies. the arctic high pressure system will move southeast into the Dakotas. The arctic high pressure slides southeast on Saturday, with highs barely reaching the zero mark over the eastern half of the state, with highs near only 10 above in the far southwest.
Winds will shift to the northwest at 12 to 18 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible between 12 and 14Z as a strong cold front moves south through the region.
325 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 The light snow/flurries will end through the afternoon/early evening along with the clouds moving out as the responsible short wave trough slides southeast. A surface Arctic high pressure area will build southeast into the region tonight into Saturday.
High Mostly clear skies will prevail tonight and Saturday under high pressure.
WAA spurred by Rockies ridging and lsa associated with the northern stream impulse will support a chance for light snow across NW SD today into this evening. Otherwise, aforementioned processes will support increasing clouds and slightly warmer temps most places today. Gusty SW winds can be expected over NE WY as pressure falls continue ahead of a ridge topping impulse.
1131 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Light snow/flurries upstream this morning shown on radar/obs associated with a weak short wave trough will slide southeast across our region into the evening hours. Of course, this has also allowed wind chill values to be warmer as well, so that now it's pretty hard to find any values colder than 25 below zero. Another cold front will drop south across the area tonight, with very cold air continuing to pour south through the region.
A weak front will arrive Saturday afternoon or evening, bringing a wintry mix of precipitation to parts of the lowlands.
An upper level trough was moving se across the area early this morning which was producing some light snow over the higher terrain along and south of I-70.
321 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Latest water vapor satellite loop shows an upper level trough moving across eastern Kansas and western Oklahoma. However winds will remain light and with snow cover along with clear skies expect temperatures to dip into the low single digits above zero. Saturday a second surge of cold air will move south in the afternoon as high pressure slides south out of the Northern Plains behind a cold front that will shift the winds back out of the north in the afternoon. By Saturday night, the region will still be under northwesterly flow with a mid-level trough over the eastern U.
This is in line with high-res guidance showing a stalled or very slow southeastward progression of the 850mb OC line until later this afternoon and especially into evening; thus, we should continue to see sleet and freezing rain as the dominate precipitation type this afternoon (periodic in nature), aside from plain rain for the southeastern counties (until later tonight). Wintry precipitation (sleet and freezing rain) will affect all TAF sites excluding MGM-TOI this afternoon (rain is expected for those two terminals). The highest liquid totals will be across the southeast counties, but sleet and snow accumulations of 2 or more inches will occur across portions of the area.
The cold air remains in place tomorrow as the high pressure ridge axis begins to move into eastern Texas.
Temps will likely remain well below freezing. especially on untreated roads and bridges. This precip wl be assocd with the main upr trof that wl sweep thru the region tngt. The larger amounts wl again be possible in the higher elevations of the Ozarks and Ouachitas. Highs today wl rmn blw freezing over most if not all of AR.
330 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 Arctic air dominates this weekend as low pressure passes to the southeast clipping the southern zones.
345 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Large upper level trough will keep the majority of the CONUS, including the Panhandles under some very cold temperatures for the rest of today and tonight. As Saturday morning will be our coldest temperatures, high pressure will begin to build slowly over thesouthwest CONUS and progress towards the high plains area.
300 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 A stationary front will be in place across South Carolina and Georgia today, while weak low pressure forms in the Gulf of Mexico. The low will move across north Florida overnight and into the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday.
*WEATHER IMPACTS: The arrival of sleet, freezing rain, and snow will affect portions of central Alabama this morning. 7C; this corresponds to roughly 4,500 feet of above-freezing temperatures atop a shallow subfreezing wedge just above the surface. Based on temperatures at the surface and upstairs, sleet and freezing will be the primary p-type morning into afternoon; however, the northern fringes of our service area could see instances of snow as they are closer to the deeper column of southward-moving freezing air from northern Alabama. Accumulations of sleet, snow,and freezing rain are expected. The highest liquid totals will be across the southeast counties, but sleet and snow accumulations of 2 or more inches will occur across portions of the area.
1020 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Light snow/flurries upstream this morning shown on radar/obs associated with a weak short wave trough will slide southeast across our region into the evening hours. Of course, this has also allowed wind chill values to be warmer as well, so that now it's pretty hard to find any values colder than 25 below zero. Another cold front will drop south across the area tonight, with very cold air continuing to pour south through the region.
1123 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Quiet and cold is the name of the game, at least in the short term as high pressure continues to settle south across our region this AM. Temps here at the office had been hovering in the lower single digits, however the mercury just dropped below zero thanks to calm winds and breaks in the overlying stratus deck. High pressure to settle directly over the area tonight, which should lead to another cold night with most areas again falling into the single digits despite a return of weak southerly winds during the period.
Snow should end across the area by mid to late afternoon and skies will clear later tonight as the upper trough axis moves east of the area.
318 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Some moderation of the cold airmass has occurred with temps reaching above zero in for portions of the northern valley as westerly SFC winds added a few degrees to the highs today. Nonetheless will have another January night with wind chill advisory needed stronger winds will offset a bit warmer minimums and still combine for feels like temperatures ranging from 25 to 35 below zero this evening and through the overnight into the morning.
Have received reports of sleet in the area, but no accumulation is expected as temperatures in that area are above freezing. Localized pockets of freezing rain have also been reported. The lower few thousand feet have begun to fall below freezing and. within this saturated layer there is probably enough lift (along the mid-level cold front) to produce this wintery mix. Light icing may occur through this lower 2 to 4k ft layer. 31 Yesterday's cold front has cleared the Upper Texas coastal waters, leaving strong northeasterly winds 25-30 knots and building seas in its wake. The coldest air behind yesterday's front (temperatures in the mid 40s) will reach the bays and coastal waters late this afternoon and early this evening, allowing gale force wind gusts to mix to the surface as it moves across the warmer waters.
312 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017 Low pressure developing over the Gulf States will intensify as it moves off the North Carolina coast Saturday morning. High pressure moves into the area Saturday night.
A surface cold front will push south through the area Sunday into Sunday night cooling down temperatures a couple of degrees.
405 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016 A broad, but flat, upper ridge will remain centered over the Southern U.
235 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 A cold front will bring rain chances tonight and Sunday. High pressure will then return dry and warm conditions through midweek. A weak cold front will sink into the area from the north late this evening with an increase in clouds and eventually rain chances north of I-80. The passing cold front will lead to a strong gradient in high temperatures north to south tomorrow, but highs will generally above-average.
/issued 1021 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016/ Skies are sunny across the forecast area this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Another warm afternoon is expected with highs in the low to mid 80s. /issued 305 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016/ A large broad upper level ridge of high pressure covering the southern United States will continue to directly influence the weather conditions over the Mid South for the next several days. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s north to upper 80s south.
Deep layer riding aloft will keep the the influence of trough passages minimal across our area while continuing to maintain higher heights aloft that will support the potential for record high temperatures over the next few days.
A strong ridge of high pressure is promoting sunny and dry conditions across the region. Will see little change in the overall weather pattern early in the extended with strong high pressure in control.
Definitely a cooler day today in the wake of a cold front, though temperatures will still remain relatively mild for late October. Ridge aloft moves to our east with the flow aloft becoming southwest, and return south winds developing at the surface. Southwest flow aloft strengthens even more, helping to strengthen a surface lee trough and producing an even warmer day with 700 mb temperatures near 7 Celsius, yielding 70s for high temperatures at lower elevations.
Clouds of either high or low variety with highs not much milder than today's due to a cooler start. Main message from 00z global models is for a northward movement overall in precipitation and low pressure track.
For tonight, there will be a cold front that will make its way through much of the area.
A cold front poised just to the north of the forecast area is expected to push through the forecast area by later this afternoon. High temperatures across the forecast area today will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A short wave ridge aloft moves across the forecast area Tonight and Sunday as a cooler area of high pressure at the surface sweeps across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast area, which will cool temperatures across the area by another several degrees. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s with cooler temperatures across the eastern sections and warmer temperatures in the west.
207 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Cold front continues to make its way through the forecast area and should clear it completely by 00z.
This occurs as ridge aloft across GA and SC weakens and moves south of the area.
Sunday will be a transition day as southerly winds will increase bringing warmer air into the area.
Low clouds, along with patchy drizzle and fog blanketed the entire region, behind a departing cold front well south of the area. The models are generally in agreement in washing out the trough extending into northwest Ontario, as it moves further southward into the Lake Superior region. A ridge will gradually build eastward into the central Great Lakes Sunday evening.
Expansive upper ridge over the southern CONUS will dominate today and tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will slide east, resulting in a tighter pressure gradient over the region. Highs Sunday will be a couple degrees cooler given the increase in sky cover.
a dirty ridge across Srn Saskatchewan is heavily flavored with trapped moisture. The models move the ridge through the Upper Missouri basin today and build into Wrn Nebraska tonight. The dirty ridge builds west into Wrn Nebraska tonight setting up light upslope winds and widespread stratus. Coolest air across north central Neb, although with highs in the lower 60s, still above normal. Could see some morning fog and will need to monitor closely as stratus/fog could cause highs to be a little cooler if it lingers longer than models expect.
UPDATED TO EXPAND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 0 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE OF Aloft - Broad flat ridging resided across the Gulf coastal region. Surface - High pressure on the VA/NC coast ridged across the Deep South to the southern plains. The upper ridge nudges eastward while sagging slightly to the south in response to a short wave trough moving across the Great Lakes tonight and over the Mid-Atlantic states Sun. which will be dominated by the ridge to the north and the frontal boundary to the south. about 3 to 5 degrees for the lows and 2 to 4 degrees for the highs.
Broad upper level ridging stretches across the southeastern CONUS, keeping the storm track to our north, where a series of impulses are moving across the Great Lakes and into New England this morning. An upper level closed low is also pushing into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic Coast stretches westward to the Texas Gulf Coast. A weak trough might result in a very slight increase in cloud cover Sunday, but otherwise no changes in sensible weather.
231 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Dry tonight with high pressure holding on, and above normal temperatures again Sunday.
/issued 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016/ A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate over the region this weekend, yielding continued well above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Lows overnight tonight will generally be in the 50s, with some 40s possible in higher terrain, and lows in the lower 60s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley and Western Low Rolling Plains. Sunday will be similar to today, though a few spots could be a degree or two warmer Sunday afternoon.
1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Near record highs will prevail again today ahead of an approaching cold front.