Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry and pleasant weather with just some scattered high clouds can be expected through at least Friday morning thanks to ridging at the surface and aloft. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the lower and middle 50s, but valleys and sheltered rural locations will fall into the middle and upper 40s. upper ridge. It will be a warm day with high temperatures in the lower and middle 80s.
Upper ridge is slowly pushing across the central states, while an upper trough moves into the Pac NW. Southerly winds will remain breezy tonight ahead of the low-level trough. Upper trough will begin moving over the northern Rockies Friday, and low-level trough will cross the Dakotas with a cold front. Highs will range from the lower 60s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 70s across south central SD.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes/southeast Ontario at mid afternoon. Short wave ridging has been building east across the northern Plains/Midwest through the day.
706 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure extending from Ontario south into the Mid Atlantic region will shift eastward and offshore by Friday night.
918 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather through Friday night along with mostly sunny skies for Friday.
A stalled out front will remain to the south of the WI/IL border tonight before getting pulled back to the north on Friday as a low pressure system develops in the plains.
Valleys will likely see all rain with snow levels around 3500 feet though a mix of rain and snow could be possible with the heavier showers between 12-16z especially in the Lower Treasure Valley. Upper trough in Idaho shifting east with scattered rain and snow showers and local MVFR conditions and areas of mountain obscuration.
721 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure over the Northland this afternoon will begin to yield overnight. Mid- and high-level clouds will advance northward into the area from convection and a trough of low pressure located over the Central Plains as of this afternoon. Overnight lows trended a bit warmer than earlier forecasts, but may be too ambitious for portions of the Arrowhead. Expecting readings in the low 30s far northeast and around 40 in our western and southwestern zones, with middle 30s in northwest Wisconsin.
Attempted to pinpoint the category changes in the TAF but generally will reach the lowest categories by around daybreak and improving by mid morning for all sites.
Ceilings are expected to be mostly in the 1000-2000 ft range, with KSOA on the lower end of that range.
1120 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will bring dry and cooler conditions that will last through Friday. High pressure at the surface is keeping us dry while convective debris from old upstream activity has resulted in a shield of mid/high clouds streaming overhead. Variably cloudy skies will continue into the overnight but we will stay dry as high pressure slips off to the east. Low temps tonight will range from around freezing over the NE zones to the lower 40s along the MD border. It appears the strength of the upper ridge over the South Central/Southeast U.
This is the result of rather strong ridging influences sfc and especially aloft expected thru the day on Sat. Expect a little bit more moisture across the region Fri night into Sat, although not expecting any organized pcpn chances, this should temps rather mild in the lower 60s, upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region Fri night, with highs on Sat just slightly cooler, mainly spanning the low to mid 80s, upper 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. This front will meander across the mid state region through Tue, before pushing NEWD as a warm front as the second half of the work week progresses.
Should see gusts of 40 to 50 mph here and nearby locations along the Pine Ridge through around midnight as the llvl jet persists.
The late evening local sounding indicates that significantly drier air has moved into the lower levels of the troposphere over the past 12 hours.
On Friday, the Red River Valley will be situated in warm air advection ahead of an maturing low pressure system.
An upper level trough will take its time passing over the region eventually exiting to the east Friday night. The trough is responsible for the unstable airmass over the region which resulted in some showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
An upper level trough will keep a threat of showers through Friday across SW Washington and NW Oregon. The showers will be most noticeable over the higher terrain, especially tonight. High pressure will end showers Friday night and support dry weather for the weekend.
/issued 418 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017/ Sunny skies today has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 80s most locations as high pressure at sfc continues to dominate the weather pattern.
905 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Friday. Rain chances return with weekend low pressure. Mid and high clouds should continue to move across the region tonight and Friday with warm advection, though low level ridging should maintain mainly dry weather. A few showers may accompany the warm frontal passage during the night.
519 PM MDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Upper ridge is slowly pushing across the central states, while an upper trough moves into the Pac NW. Southerly winds will remain breezy tonight ahead of the low-level trough. Upper trough will begin moving over the northern Rockies Friday, and low-level trough will cross the Dakotas with a cold front. Highs will range from the lower 60s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 70s across south central SD.
At the surface a warm front has lifted towards the Nebraska state line. Regarding severe weather Friday: NAM/ARW/NMM/GEM all show better potential for thunderstorm initiation with better moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere (east of the dry line).
945 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A weak cold front will slip south of the area this evening.
725 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather through Friday night along with mostly sunny skies for Friday.
9 pm update: Cold front was located near Havre and Lewistown at 03z. Previous short term: Large and strong upper-level low pressure system slowly coming onshore over Washington and Oregon is now directing an almost constant fetch of moisture northward through the Columbia River basin and the lower Snake River basin.
The storms will be focused where the low level jet develops helping to enhance lift.
Aloft, ridging centered just east of us, will also maintain its presence across the region. Winds will have more of a southerly component as high pressure shifts further to the east.
926 PM PDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Low pressure lingering over the region on Friday will promote cool, showery, and breezy conditions.
Tomorrows extended southerly flow will help to push that frontal boundary to the north as a warm front.
20Z Water vapor imagery picking up on am upper low which passed NNE through the OK/TX panhandle and into central KS. This upper low is progged to continue its NNE track, reaching the NW corner of IA by 18z and weakening to more of an open wave by that time. Looking to 300K-305K sfcs for bands of isentropic adiabatic lift to propagate through Iowa from SW to NE, beginning shortly after 12Z Fri as the low approaches to our west.
845 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Satellite showing abundant cloud cover over the region under easterly flow and inverted conditions in the low-levels.
A low- level jet feeding into the hill country from the lower and middle coastal areas will help IFR conditions to develop at KCLL by 09Z. The low-level inversion should break around 15Z and expect any IFR to MVFR conditions to lift afterwards. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017/ Model guidance and MOS values support low temperatures for this evening dropping into the low 60s for our inland counties, and upper 60s along the coast. Forecast soundings should plenty of dry air aloft, though there is still some slight saturation in the lower levels.
We also see a lee low pressure developing across Montana resulting in strengthening southerly flow. NAM BUFKIT profiles suggest saturation through the lowest few thousand feed across much of the area, and that is probably not thick enough to generate drizzle.
Current H500 closed low over the Oklahoma panhandle will gradually lift NNE under anti-cyclonic flow, reaching NE Nebraska by 12Z Friday. At the surface, a shallow quasi-stationary inverted trough bisected Kansas from SW to NE. This boundary should weaken overnight as the upper low pulls north and WAA overruns the boundary. Low-level moisture/stratus will likely linger into the morning, but given the increasing pressure gradient/southerly winds tomorrow, expect the low clouds to mix out by early afternoon.
1240 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Dry conditions will continue until rain chances return with weekend low pressure. while low level ridging maintains dry conditions. A few showers may accompany the warm frontal passage during the night.
At the surface, a warm front is slowly developing north through the forecast area, with this feature extending along a KAIO-KOMA- KLNK line as of 19z. By afternoon, the forecast area will be subject to weak subsidence aloft with the passage of the mid- level trough to the northeast. Better daytime storm potential will exist to our southwest in closer proximity to a lee cyclone over the central High Plains.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across South Florida into the upcoming weekend. /issued Issued by National Weather Service KEY WEST FL/ High pressure will be building from the Ohio Valley into the western Atlantic through the upcoming weekend, maintaining an easterly lower tropospheric flow across south Florida.
1055 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Satellite showing abundant cloud cover over the region under easterly flow and inverted conditions in the low-levels.
1224 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will spread across the Carolinas and Georgia through this weekend.
High pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS will maintain light and variable winds overnight, trending southeast for Friday. /issued 418 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017/ Sunny skies today has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 80s most locations as high pressure at sfc continues to dominate the weather pattern.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals low pressure off the Washington coast with quite a bit of cirrus from southern Arizona through California and into the eastern Pacific associated with an 80+kt 200mb jet streak. Despite the high clouds, temperatures have had no problem climbing with lower desert locales seeing readings in the upper 80s as of 1930Z. The inherited afternoon forecast of highs in the lower 90s seems more than reasonable at this point and still looks on track.
Surface ridging remains wedged into the forecast area from the east with a broad ridge aloft over the southeastern states. Lowered min temps a degree or two based on latest obs and a blend with the lower end of MOS guidance matching almost a persistence forecast compared to last night's observed lows. Aloft, ridging centered just east of us, will also maintain its presence across the region. Winds will have more of a southerly component as high pressure shifts further to the east.
A cold front will exit this evening and showers will dissipate for the most part overnight.
Wind shear is so weak that it is unlikely that any of these will be strong, but later on we could have future development on the NE side as the low-level jet increases. An upper low pressure system in southwest Kansas will lift north across Kansas and Nebraska overnight and early Friday morning. A late afternoon/early evening storm cannot be ruled out but the better chances for precipitation return Friday night as convection which develops along the high plains rolls eastward with an advancing cold frontal boundary.
Late evening surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1031 millibars) centered over the Great Lakes States, with weaker high pressure blanketing the southeastern states. Weak low pressure (1011 millibars) was nearly stationary and positioned northeast of the southeastern Bahamas. Otherwise, thin cirrus is spilling over the ridge centered to our west and is gradually pushing into our region. High pressure will build southeastward and down the U. Inland highs will reach the low to mid 80s, with breezy conditions expected for inland northeast and north central FL as well as coastal southeast GA. Strong high pressure centered near the Great Lakes states this evening will build southeastward while expanding down the U.
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 The upper level ridge over the southwestern CONUS will remain the driver of the regions weather today and tonight. Some models do attempt to develop convection south and west towards Nevada to Versailles but thinking the dry air in place and the orientation of the ridge with the lack of any noticeable short waves will make the chance for this to occur limited at best. The ridging will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 90s. Convection should again develop tonight across northwestern through central Missouri but remain north and east to the Ozarks once again as the upper ridge remain over the area. Night time lows will only cool into the lower to middle 70s. Wednesday will see a slight amplification in the ridge pushing the track for convection to the northeast.
Cold front will be moving into the west and north over the next few hours and then sweeping swd overnight. Wednesday will be not as warm with far nrn and ern zones seeing the biggest change with temps as much as 10 to 15 degrees cooler while the far sw sees little change. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Seasonal day on Wednesday may entertain some slight convection during the evening hours over the southern part of Sweetwater county due to northern fringe of instability under the upper level high.
The upper level ridge extends from North Texas westward to include much of the Southwest US this afternoon, and will shift only slightly eastward for Wednesday. An upper ridge will dominate the forecast area into the coming weekend with dry conditions and highs in the low to mid 90s. in the lower 70s.
354 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge over the western Dakotas. Upper level trough was over southern ALTA and was moving east about 40 knots. Upper low forecast to move across the area on Wed and produce showers and thunderstorms.
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front crosses late Today and Tonight, only to return as a warm front Wednesday.
Upper ridging remains in control of North Texas weather although there are a few spotty showers around this afternoon. The center of the 700-500mb ridge is located very near North Texas today resulting in a deep layer of light winds. The upper ridge is expected to intensify through mid week across the area but the surface pressure gradient will tighten some allowing southerly winds to strengthen. a weak upper trough will move west into South Texas.
218 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far southeast MT, with warm front extending southeast into western SD and a dryline across far northeast WY. Cold front extends southwestward from central MT to eastern ID. Upper level analysis shows high pressure remaining centered over the Four Corners area, with ridge axis extending north-northeast into the northern high plains. Cold front will move through northeast WY early this evening and across the rest of the cwa overnight.
Decent cold frontal passage during the night. Considerably cooler in the wake of the cold frontal passage with lower elevations high temperatures back into the 80s. We may see isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms over and near the Snowy and southern Laramie ranges in the proximity of the low and mid level theta-e ridge axis. Another quiet night with weak ridging aloft overhead.
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep upper trough dominating much of eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region this afternoon.
257 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the north country today with mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures.
Area remains in broad w to wnw low level flow, between high pressure in the se states and low pressure over ne canada. Spotty sprinkles/light showers will develop along the incoming surface trof, aided by mid-level moistening/cooling. These will tend to accompany the surface trof across northern MI thru mid-evening.
350 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front along the Maryland border will continue to move southward this evening.
Tomorrow will be 10 degrees cooler behind the front. Some differences in timing of the upper trough emerged between the ECMWF and GFS during the period. In addition, the ensemble ECMWF continued to show some uncertainty around the trough.
617 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 With a cold front having moved through overnight, much cooler temperatures are expected today.
244 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Warm front along the KS/NE border region will continue to lift northward through the region tonight. For Wednesday, the cold front attached to the area of low pressure in northeast NE moves through the region. There is some question if any convection might develop immediately behind the front with the arrival of the cooler air, but that chance is low and will keep the forecast dry for now.
On Wednesday, upper high will move east and will be centered over the arklatex region.
458 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front crosses late Today and Tonight, only to return as a warm front Wednesday.
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather today and tonight. A warm front moving in on Wednesday will signal the chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. There is some spread in the models on how far north the sfc warm front reaches, with the ECMWF remaining further south than the GFS and NAM.
615 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Cold front becomes stationary tonight, will lift north as a warm front Wednesday.
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep trof dominating much of eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region.
1101 AM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will extend across much of the southern half of the U. and Canada border and drag a weak cold front across the northern Rockies and brush the northern CO and UT borders this afternoon and evening.
632 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Weak high pressure will keep the weather dry tonight and into Wednesday.
Our area will remain situated underneath a broad upper level ridge over the southern half of the CONUS, along with a lower level ridge over the southeastern states. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
Slightly cooler temperatures are also expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s across all counties.
The H5 ridge that has been baking the southwest and southern plains will continue to spread eastward through Wednesday afternoon.
The front in northern Kansas is expected to lift north as a warm front today. Along with the warm front moving north, there are south winds that push warm air into the forecast area. The pattern aloft will be more zonal across the plains on Wednesday with the center of the upper ridge axis oriented across the southern plains and the main westerlies across the northern plains.
At the start of the period, the southern ridge will hold steady just south of Kentucky as the northern stream begins to amplify.
Upper level ridging influences will try to build across the mid state region over the weekend, with a return to a more unorganized upper level pattern for the first part of next work week. Despite these ridging influences building across the region during the weekend, there will be enough low level moisture advection, instability, and daytime heating influences to support the development of isolated to scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms, and these chances will become greater as next work week progresses.
Then cool and showery Thu into early Fri as upper low pres moves across the region.
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Quiet weather will continue through tonight and tomorrow as the ridge centered over North Texas continues to expand a bit to the west and north over the area tonight into Wednesday. We will see the high pressure bubble move towards the ArkLaTex region and allow monsoonal moisture to work its way into our area.
Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead to hot conditions today.
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 222 PM CDT Pleasant conditions returned briefly to Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana today, with a much welcomed high pressure region. Mixing this afternoon has been able to push dewpoints down into the upper 40s across far Northeast Illinois, with other areas falling into the lower 50s to around 50 degrees. With increasing cloud cover this evening, temperatures will only fall into the lower 60s. It is possible that if clouds build in quicker, and the boundary begins to lift north faster, temperatures could be a few degrees warmer, but expect with the dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s this should allow temperatures to quickly fall into the upper 50s.
High pressure over the area will bring continued warm and dry weather through Wednesday.
/issued 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ The massive southwest upper level anticyclone will recenter across north Texas late today. The surface pressure gradient will strengthen slightly today in response to low pressure moving from southwest Washington this morning to the northern high plains by this evening. The massive upper level ridge will reposition itself to the east of the region and become more elongated.
1131 AM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Upper level analysis has large ridge across much of the CONUS with ridge axis across the Northern Great Plains. At the surface, low/lee trof is located across central Montana with high pressure across the eastern Dakotas. Highs will rise back into the 90s across much of the plains as southerly winds bring warmer and moister air into the area. Strong cold front passage later tonight will bring brisk northwesterly winds with gusts to 40 mph for a period, especially across the plains in the lee of the Black Hills. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only expected to be in the 80s.
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front associated with a strong disturbance aloft will move across our region on Wednesday.
(Issued 1012 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016) High pressure remains in place over central AL/MS extending east into southern/central Georgia. A weak cold front further north extends from near Maryland southwest into the southern tip of Illinois.
Strong upper level ridge will remain over the region today and tonight. Best chance for storms will be over the higher terrain to the south and southwest of Denver. Gusty winds will be the main threat with the storms today due to the higher cloud bases. A cold front will enter northeast Colorado after midnight. This will bring cooler conditions for Wednesday. A broad ridge of high pressure will allow for warmer than normal temperatures to continue through the period. Similar to yesterday the airmass will be fairly stable across the northeast plains on Wednesday following the passage of a weak cold front Tuesday night. The flow aloft will be west/southwesterly on Wednesday with the ridge centered over TX.
Onshore flow will be ENE before high pressure building allows winds to return to a ESE pattern. No precipitation is expected through the next 24 hours with high pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere in control. In the wake of this now-defunct system, 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners region will re- center over the Gulf Coast states, all the while remaining dominant over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Dry weather will prevail across the BRO CWFA due to the proximity and oppressiveness of this high throughout the short term forecast period.