Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
218 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Temperature and humidity will increase in the days ahead as Bermuda high pressure settles offshore. The clouds Thursday will suppress max-T values a bit, so it looks like today is the warmer of the 2 days.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail in the wake of the weak trof Wednesday night. A weak trof embedded in northwest flow should aid storm coverage and provide some storm organization potential.
Current satellite showing some innocuous mid and high cloud overhead as high pressure continues to exert influence over the region. High pressure off the Carolina coast and ridging westward along the Gulf shore will continue to provide us with warm air and a light southwesterly breeze tonight. Low temperatures should mostly be in the middle 60s, but sheltered eastern valleys may still be a few degrees cooler. On Wednesday the high will edge slightly eastward as a cold front approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes.
133 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
1018 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 NW low level flow continues this afternoon, in the wake of this morning cold front passage.
152 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure offshore will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020 The upper level ridge will be centered over southern AZ/NM today.
Reaves Ridge axis still looks to have a good hold on southern GA early Thursday.
353 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Precipitation chances creeping back into the forecast area from the west today as weak upper ridging continues to flatten and moisture increases on southwesterly low-level flow. Weak mid-level wave drifting north from the northeastern gulf coast into a shallow mid/upper trough developing over the region increases precipitation chances Thursday. Moderate instability and a weak cold front stretching out across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians brings at least a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to the far north Thursday.
300 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 More heat for today, as temperatures once again climb into the upper 80s/nr 90 but it turns more humid thanks to a moist southwest flow increasing dew points into the low to mid 60s. By this evening the cold front stalls across southern Indiana increasing the chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight from our Indiana counties and north of the parkways along the Ohio River.
At 20Z surface cold front was draped from west to east across the center of the CWA, roughly from Wausaukee to Marshfield, as evident by the wind shift to the W/NW.
Warm front extends southeastward to Cheyenne and south into central Colorado. To the east of this warm front. Guidance continues to show the warm front surging east later this morning as a dry line.
352 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 The main forecast concern this morning continues to be thunderstorm chances for the next couple of days, prior to the upper level ridge fully building into the region, with some isolated potential for strong to severe storms as well. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon across mainly southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas today as upper level low pressure moves slowly across the area. Reduced mid and high cloud cover today, in addition to the expanding upper level ridge, will lead to temperatures being a few degrees higher than those seen the last couple of days. Later tonight and into tomorrow morning, a thunderstorm complex is expected to develop across portions of Kansas and Missouri on the northeastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge.
Expect the upper low out to our west to continue tracking eastward along the middle Red River Valley over the next 24 hours with some convection expected through the TAF period, primarily during hours of peak heating on Wednesday as a healthy cu field likely develops with additional mid and high clouds mixing in throughout the day.
1034 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A strong ridging pattern is firmly in control of the region and will be for much of the short range forecast. The next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a mid and upper level trough will push through the region. This will help flatten the ridge some and allow or the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
259 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Primary impact for this short term period will be sub-severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight tonight as a cold front moves across the region. Models are bringing some afternoon precipitation, however expect this to be high based as the cold front will be west of area during daylight hours. Meanwhile the higher MLCAPE is across SD.
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 A significant warming trend is underway across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, as an upper ridge continues to build over the region. The only exceptions will be across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains and portions of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, where a few storms may develop with peak heating this afternoon.
and Thursday The mid-week period looks relatively quiet, with a drier air mass in place in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. High temperatures will still be much above normal today and Thursday, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s. A slight easterly component to the winds will cool temperatures back into the lower to middle 70s near Lake Michigan on Thursday.
A weak cold front will send convection eastward tonight with a drying trend later tonight and Thursday. Unsettled and cooler conditions are likely again this weekend. After this system passes through, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon due to the combination of instability and the passage of a cold front. Weak high pressure and dry weather to start the period.
449 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Low pressure tracks to the southeastern Canadian Maritimes today and tonight. Weak high pressure builds over the area Thursday and Thursday night.
Patternwise, flow aloft has transitioned more zonal across the northern half of the CONUS as the upper ridge axis broke down and oriented farther south into the desert southwest/Mexico. At the surface, the cold frontal boundary had reached northern Kansas, weak high pressure was building south near the MO River, while low pressure resides along the front range/high plains. Aftn temps will be slightly cooler in the post frontal airmass/less amplified pattern. The upper ridge axis begins to rebuild from the desert southwest across the interior CONUS late this week and into the first part of the weekend before flow transitions southwest ahead of a potent upper trough moving inland from the Pacific. Under the influence of the ridge and ahead of this next system, mainly dry and hot temps (90s) are forecast thru the weekend.
350 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 (Today and Tonight) The warmup will start today, with the upper level ridge shifting east to near El Paso by late this afternoon. Low level thermal ridge increases slightly as well, so afternoon highs will inch up a couple degrees from what we have seen the last several days. Upper low is far enough east that will continue the dry forecast as well.
223 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Continued dry and warmer today.
/Issued 352 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ The main forecast concern this morning continues to be thunderstorm chances for the next couple of days, prior to the upper level ridge fully building into the region, with some isolated potential for strong to severe storms as well. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon across mainly southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas today as upper level low pressure moves slowly across the area. Reduced mid and high cloud cover today, in addition to the expanding upper level ridge, will lead to temperatures being a few degrees higher than those seen the last couple of days. Later tonight and into tomorrow morning, a thunderstorm complex is expected to develop across portions of Kansas and Missouri on the northeastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge.
High pressure overhead, however aloft flow is zonal with a few weak perturbations that will support convection through Thursday. CAMS highlight storm development along a northeast to southwest boundary as it impacts the higher dewpoint air at the edge of this high, from western South Dakota into central North Dakota. Its important to note that severe weather will be limited to the north by a later/lesser degree in influx of moisture/instability while to the south, in the higher dewpoint/higher instability airmass, wind speeds aloft are not quite so strong. Return flow around fast moving high pressure brings near 60 dewpoint air back into central South Dakota by the afternoon. Again, its difficult to discern a 500/700mb wave, however profiles remain unstable enough that the high shear would support the risk for severe storm development.
High pressure still remains in control as minor perturbations move through the mean flow causing some convection this afternoon. Favored areas look to be the higher elevations north of the I-70 corridor though a few cells can't be ruled out for the San Juans. Again, the lower atmosphere will be remain dry so gusty outflow winds will be the rule. The overall synoptic pattern hasn't changed much with the upper-level ridge continuing to dominate over the Four Corners area.
Any storms impacting the TAF sites may result in gusty winds and the lowering of the flight category to at least MVFR conditions. Temperatures across the region will generally reach the low to mid 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. The moisture levels across the area will gradually decline from Wednesday night into Thursday as subsidence increases as a 500 mb ridge centered over Chihuahua, Mexico expands eastward over the state. High temperatures on Thursday should run a degree or two warmer than Wednesday under partly cloudy skies.
Precipitation chances creeping back into the forecast area from the west today as weak upper ridging continues to flatten and moisture increases on southwesterly low-level flow. Weak mid-level wave drifting north from the northeastern gulf coast into a shallow mid/upper trough developing over the region increases precipitation chances Thursday. Moderate instability and a weak cold front stretching out across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians brings at least a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to the far north Thursday.
Between high pressure in the Atlantic ridging over Florida and TS Cristobal in the southern Gulf of Mexico, abundant moisture will continue to advect over the region leading to scattered to numerous showers through the day. High pressure ridging across Florida will keep an overall east- southeast flow around 10-15 knots over the gulf coast waters through the end of the week.
More heat for today, as temperatures once again climb into the upper 80s/nr 90 but it turns more humid thanks to a moist southwest flow increasing dew points into the low to mid 60s. By this evening the cold front stalls across southern Indiana increasing the chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight from our Indiana counties and north of the parkways along the Ohio River.
This is part of a larger scale reinforcement of cooler and less humid air carrying minimal fog potential into Thursday morning.
804 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Continued dry and warmer today.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow under big ridging. /issued 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ A significant warming trend is underway across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, as an upper ridge continues to build over the region. The only exceptions will be across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains and portions of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, where a few storms may develop with peak heating this afternoon.
Sfc cold front is still well to our north with convection ongoing in southeastern Iowa and northern IL. A weak upper low is positioned off to our southwest over the Mississippi River, and isolated convection over Middle TN could sneak into far southern KY. Multiple CAMs as well as the SPC HREF mean are pointing to renewed convective development generally along the cold front from northeast MO across IL/IN/OH this afternoon. More heat for today, as temperatures once again climb into the upper 80s/nr 90 but it turns more humid thanks to a moist southwest flow increasing dew points into the low to mid 60s. By this evening the cold front stalls across southern Indiana increasing the chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight from our Indiana counties and north of the parkways along the Ohio River.
736 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure offshore will continue to build into the Carolinas through tonight.
608 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
Looking for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area today as precipitable water values remain on the high side. With precipitable water values lower tomorrow, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, and high temperatures should end up a degree or two warmer than what the area will experience today.
605 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
1004 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Temperature and humidity will increase in the days ahead as Bermuda high pressure settles offshore. The clouds Thursday will suppress max-T values a bit, so it looks like today is the warmer of the 2 days.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible over the high Sierra Wednesday and Thursday.
Clear skies cover the region early this morning as the high clouds associated with the cutoff low off the SoCal coast remain to our south. The COL (saddle), between the low and the westerlies to our north across the PacNW, and its axis of dilatation, will continue to keep NorCal relatively cloud-free today and Thursday as it erodes clouds moving north around the low.
920 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure offshore will continue to build into the Carolinas through tonight.
532 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a weakness/trough aloft over the region. At the sfc, high pres continues to ridge west acrs the northern Gulf coast, with near calm winds over the region. Conditions remain warm and quite muggy this morning, with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. 24 The weak upper trough will migrate east the next few days, bcmg an elongated weakness acrs the SE CONUS and Gulf of Mexico as mid level ridging builds over TX. With onshore flow continuing in the lower levels and precip water values between 1. The highest chc/best coverage is expected from the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Acadiana region into cntl LA.
502 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
934 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Low pressure was located to the north and south of the Northland early this morning with high pressure across the Northern Plains. A trough of low pressure was working through northeastern Minnesota and was leading to a few isolated showers across the Arrowhead, but conditions were mainly clear with areas of patchy fog. Highs today will trend cooler than yesterday, but will still be around 10 degrees above normal.
Temperatures across the region will generally reach the low to mid 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. The moisture levels across the area will gradually decline from Wednesday night into Thursday as subsidence increases as a 500 mb ridge centered over Chihuahua, Mexico expands eastward over the state. High temperatures on Thursday should run a degree or two warmer than Wednesday under partly cloudy skies.
Early this morning, mid-level ridging was present over the southwest US with mainly zonal flow across the northern two-thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was located over Iowa with a weak attendant surface front slowly moving southeast into southeastern Nebraska and central Kansas. Temperatures across the CWA have only fallen into the low 70s; the warm start will allow for another summer-like day today with highs climbing into the low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s.
This morning, an upper ridge axis stretches from the coast of Ga northwest across the mid state. As we move through the day, the ridge is expected to break down by late afternoon. Temps will be a degree or two cooler as more in the way of cloud cover and higher pops are expected.
Similar conditions can be expected on Thursday as yet another disturbance moves into the region in westerly flow and generates afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain and adjacent foothills, spreading east out onto the plains.
1044 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
1040 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
Mid level ridge atop Florida will shift east into the Atlantic this afternoon/tonight as a short wave trough amplifies over the NE GOMEX and Florida. As this occurs, the Atlantic ridge axis will retreat eastward, allowing low level E-ESE flow to veer to SE today and SSE/S tonight. Coverage of storms may somewhat limited by extensive mid-high cloud cover, which should thicken in the moist SW flow aloft between the trough and the upper level anticyclone over T. POPs mainly 50-60 percent today (except 40 Volusia/70 Okeechobee) and likely all locations tonight as upper forcing increases through the evening as the trough moves overhead.
839 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Clouds and precipitation is keep temperatures in the lower 80s for now. From synopsis: A lengthy western Atlantic ridge axis reaching across the extreme Southeast United States will drop southward and into the Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days.
This low stratus will begin gradually eroding after sunrise, but scattered to numerous showers and storms will again bring about the potential for periodic bouts of MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities if it's observed on station through the course of the day. High pressure at the surface remains wedged into the region from the west, resulting in increasing moisture across the forecast area.
634 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Low pressure was located to the north and south of the Northland early this morning with high pressure across the Northern Plains. A trough of low pressure was working through northeastern Minnesota and was leading to a few isolated showers across the Arrowhead, but conditions were mainly clear with areas of patchy fog. Highs today will trend cooler than yesterday, but will still be around 10 degrees above normal.
1014 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Aviation section updated A cold front will drop southeast and remain nearby through the early weekend.
Focus continues to be afternoon convective activity as instability increases and a cold front moves across the area tonight. Primary impact for this short term period will be sub-severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight tonight as a cold front moves across the region. Models are bringing some afternoon precipitation, however expect this to be high based as the cold front will be west of area during daylight hours. Meanwhile the higher MLCAPE is across SD.
614 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Temperature and humidity will increase in the days ahead as Bermuda high pressure settles offshore. The clouds Thursday will suppress max-T values a bit, so it looks like today is the warmer of the 2 days.
/issued 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ (Today and Tonight) The warmup will start today, with the upper level ridge shifting east to near El Paso by late this afternoon. Low level thermal ridge increases slightly as well, so afternoon highs will inch up a couple degrees from what we have seen the last several days. Upper low is far enough east that will continue the dry forecast as well.
620 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
710 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Low pressure tracks to the southeastern Canadian Maritimes today and tonight. Weak high pressure builds over the area Thursday and Thursday night.
150 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Cold front will continue sagging southward this afternoon, keeping the best instability axis south of the MI/OH border. Potential for thunderstorm activity through 20z remains extremely low with cold front and instability axis continuing to sag south into northern OH.
437 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 A cold front over the Midwest is moving southeast, but losing momentum as it approaches. Meanwhile, upper level ridging over the Deep South is weakening.
Latest GOES Water Vapor imagery shows weak troughing over the southeast, with broad northwest flow across the northern half of the U. Coverage of diurnally-driven storms should be a bit higher on Thursday as the sub-tropical ridge retrogrades west a bit.
Tonight a weak cold front will travel along the International Border bringing the chance of precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms to northern MN. Thursday will see partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 80s and breezy winds out of the west.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low 90s to near 100.
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 (Tonight and Thursday) Quiet, dry, and warmer weather through tomorrow in store for West Central Texas. The trend of warmer temperatures across the area today will continue into tomorrow as an upper level ridge to our west edges slowly towards our area. 850mb temperatures will warm between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius across our CWA, and the increase in ridging aloft will allow for even less cloud cover than we have today. Will have a possibility for an embedded disturbance to move around the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge and enter the Texas Panhandle.
Where sunshine is returning, temperatures are returning into the lower to mid 80s.
226 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 An upper low is over the Pacific Ocean southwest of California. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico as well as across the plains of southeast New Mexico. The upper ridge continues to build over West Texas and southeast New Mexico on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the mountains of West Texas and southeast New Mexico as the low- level moisture interacts with the higher terrain.
With the upper level energy and dewpoints in NC Kansas in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ A significant warming trend is underway across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, as an upper ridge continues to build over the region. The only exceptions will be across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains and portions of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, where a few storms may develop with peak heating this afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorm activity is possible overnight as thunderstorms, which are currently developing across the High Plains of NE/WY/CO, grow upscale and propagate across the forecast area.
High pressure will move east of the area waters today into Thursday with a chance of thunderstorms returning tonight through the weekend as deep tropical moisture returns to the area.
A disturbance in a 500mb trough will pivot east northeast across the region Tonight through Thursday. While overnight lows will be seasonal Tonight, the rain and clouds will keep readings below normal on Thursday, with highs in the lower 80s expected.
115 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
1139 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with the approach and passage of a cold front. The cold front is expected to slow, and stall near the southern PA border, and this could contribute to the risk for training storms.