Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A 500 mb high over the southwest Gulf is in the process of expanding a ridge toward the northeast, with 500 mb heights forecast to rise 20-30 meters in the next 24 hours over the tri-state region.
140 PM MST Wed Mar 10 2021 Water vapor shows long wave trof covering the western/central CONUS, with upper low shifting from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, and next upper low along the CA coast.
The lower level features that have enhanced the snowfall across the state are weakening and moving east quickly. Thursday the H5 trough continues to drop southward along California. This are looks to be influenced by the diffluent zone ahead of the trough. The axis of the positively-tilted trough remains across western WY Thursday night, keeping any further precip with this system confined to the southeast away from the region, for the time being.
CAM solutions hold off on anything this far south until the evening, with an eventual transition to the approaching cold front being the focus for development late tonight and for the next couple of days.
Heavy snow continues to impact southwest SD, with the most intense band at the moment from around Pine Ridge northeast to just south of Kadoka. Beyond today, southern portion of western CONUS trof gets pinched off. with the low slowly moving through the four corners region.
Through the end of the weekend, high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies.
VFR will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 49 73 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 48 71 53 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 72 49 71 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 44 71 48 65 / 0 0 0 10 40.
A cutoff low is just off the northern California coast this morning, and short waves rotating around the low over the Medford forecast area are destabilizing the air mass, making for cool showery conditions. The highest impacts have been in the Mount Shasta area.
Temperatures have been slightly cooler in some spots thanks to thick high clouds, which we'll see off and on for the next several days.
1036 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 As a high pressure to the northeast of FL remains in place, weather conditions across east central FL will continue to be pleasant.
Highs will be the low 80s across most of the area, with Rio Grande Plains in the mid to upper 80s, even as high as 90 in the far southwestern counties.
The I-29 corridor eastward into MN this morning is just about the only remaining area (getting smaller by the hour) where a "wintry mix" of snow/sleet/freezing rain is possible. If not, and we get rain, ground temperatures are slightly above freezing, and air temperatures will be around the freezing point, which would probably limit any ice with negligible public impacts.
Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight with the best chance for scattered showers/thunderstorms at KBVO.
1210 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Dry and warm conditions continue today before rain chances return on Thursday and Thursday night with a slow moving cold front. Dry weather and above-average temperatures continue today as the ern-CONUS high pressure finally slips east into the Atlantic. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening with increasingly moist flow in advance of our next cold front.
118 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Breezy southerly flow will diminish this evening, but will maintain speeds of 5-10kt most of the night, especially in our western counties and the higher elevations where gusts may continue. Thus, expecting a very mild night with lows in the lower to middle 50s. The high clouds may return again late tonight, along with a few more mid clouds across the lower MS valley clipping northwest AL. The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast U.
Radar showing a few showers now over Central Louisiana, thus continuing the low end 10-14% chances of precipitation this afternoon, diminishing after sunset. The southerly winds will diminish a bit after sunset, but stay relatively elevated overnight, only allowing low temperatures to fall into the lower/mid 60s.
A strong low pressure system over centered over western Iowa with a trailing front into eastern Kansas this afternoon and tight pressure gradient out ahead of the low across the forecast area. The low cloud cover has kept temperatures in check with readings generally in the mid to upper 60s today. Dewpoints have increased into the low to mid 50s.
The 10% rain chance was kept in the Lower and Middle Keys. A strong high pressure (>1030mb) currently located off the Carolina Coast, will continue to influence our weather and allow it to be quite pleasant through the end of the week. The pressure gradient across our area will remain tight over the next few days until the area of high pressure starts to weaken as we head into the weekend.
Thursday: The low will be lifting east/northeast from near Lake Superior. While the overall thermal profile will be cooler, full sun, lack of snow cover and no lake component should result in mild, above normal temps.
The lowest of these RH values continues to be across portions of southwest VA where winds will also be gusty, therefore the current Fire Danger Statement will stand through 7PM. Low temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer than last night (given this reduction in radiational cooling) with lows in the 40s for much of the area. Highs on Thursday look a degree or so warmer than that of today with mostly the entire region in the low 70s, with the exception of the higher elevations.
After a series of days with a very dry air mass in place across the forecast area, low level moisture will come streaming quickly northward as an upper level low moves southeastward along the coast of southern California. Mid level isentropic lift just upstream from a low amplitude short wave ridge axis could result in scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as late Thursday night.
Flurries or light snow showers will continue in southern Harney and extreme southern Malheur Counties through this evening as the main upper low, currently off northern California, continues slowly south.
903 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 A forecast update is in place which moves the rain snow line east about 20 miles, raises precipitation chances and removes the mention of freezing rain. The potential for accumulated ice viz freezing rain appears fairly low in the HRRR and RAP. Current observations show the going short term forecast is on track as temperatures hover near freezing across Sheridan and Cherry counties. Despite mostly sunny skies on Thursday, cold air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -4 degree C range will keep temperatures on the cooler side. A few isolated locations generally southeast of a line from Imperial to O'Neill may be lucky and see a high in the low 50s.
1031 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Today is shaping up to be another beautiful day in the Florida Keys! Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the lower 70s, and visibile satellite is depicting partly cloudy skies. Any persisting showers will most likely remain over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and stay south of the island chain. These conditions will continue over the next few days as a strong high pressure, currently located off the Carolina Coast, slowly weakens through the week. A strong high pressure will keep the gradient tight, allowing winds to remain fresh to strong over all waters through at least Thursday. The aforementioned high pressure will begin to weaken by the end of the week and winds will finally begin to slacken.
1127 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Dry and warm conditions continue today before rain chances return on Thursday and Thursday night with a slow moving cold front. Dry weather and above-average temperatures continue today as the ern-CONUS high pressure finally slips east into the Atlantic. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening with increasingly moist flow in advance of our next cold front.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Warm, dry and breezy conditions will continue through the short term with a midlevel ridge across the southeastern US and a midlevel trough in the western US. Tonight's temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 60s with Thursday highs in the low 90s across much of Zapata and Starr counties to 70s along the coast.
If you like this week's weather pattern, thank the high pressure that remains in control to the north. This high was centered off the coast of the Carolinas today, stretching west towards the southeast U. Ridging extends toward the gulf coast states tonight and will shift north as the high stretches along the east U. Then for highs, it will feel warmer as temp reach mid-upper 70s along the coast and near 80 across the interior.
A deepening area of low pressure, currently centered near the Minnesota/Iowa border, will lift northeast to northern Lake Superior by daybreak Thursday. The associated cold front will reach the Lake Michigan coast toward daybreak. Ahead of the cold front, strong WAA will continue to support at least spotty showers in the warm sector through the night.
(This evening through Thursday) Low clouds and cooler temperatures have again affected areas south of Interstate 20 this afternoon.
Rain chances return for Thursday and Thursday night with a slow-moving cold front.
801 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Large area of high pressure over the far western Atlantic is producing around 15 kt of easterly flow from just off the surface through about 6500 ft AGL per local 915 MHz profilers. Min RH slightly higher on Thu as these are expected to drop to the lower 50s along the coast and as low as the lower 40s across the interior.
Breezy southerly flow will diminish this evening, but will maintain speeds of 5-10kt most of the night, especially in our western counties and the higher elevations where gusts may continue. Thus, expecting a very mild night with lows in the lower to middle 50s. The high clouds may return again late tonight, along with a few more mid clouds across the lower MS valley clipping northwest AL. The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast U.
An approaching cold front will provide enough forcing to produce showers and possible storms, mainly east of I-35. Cooler temperatures and higher dewpoints should reduce any fire weather concerns for western/northern Oklahoma.
A few evening snow showers will be possible over the region, as a cold front moves southward through the area.
547 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Low clouds and cooler temperatures have again affected areas south of Interstate 20 this afternoon.
231 PM MST Wed Mar 10 2021 A few evening snow showers will be possible over the region, as a cold front moves southward through the area.
There is also 1020mb high pressure across the nrn Plains which will build into Nebraska tonight and the models show precipitable water falling to around 0. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer short term model blend.
Cloud cover will increase overnight and Thursday morning with a dry cold front. A little patchy fog is possible with some of the low cloud but confidence not yet high enough on location to include in weather grids.
Temperatures will also continue to slowly moderate with readings a couple of degrees warmer than today. This ridging will remain strong enough to keep any weather well to the north of the area through the end of the week and into the weekend. An area of low pressure develops over the central U. The ridge will slightly weaken and flatten out, but should keep most of the weather to the north.
A cold front will begin to the approach the region from the northwest tomorrow morning.
Mostly dry and calm conditions for tomorrow as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the region and persists into the weekend.
A deep upper-level low pressure system expected to sink southeast into the far southwester U. during the period will pump vigorous amount of Pacific moisture northeast across the country and into the mid MS River Valley with time as a cold front settles slowly southeast into the region Thu afternoon and Thu night.
Also latest HRRR continued to bring patchy fog S behind a cold front later tonight.
639 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Rain chances return tomorrow with a slow- moving cold front.
Upper level ridging over the southeast CONUS which has been dominating our weather will get flattened by a short wave crossing northeast over the upper Great Lakes tonight and Thursday. This will allow a cold front to sink southeast toward us. As the front settles into KY on Thursday night, showers are expected to accompany it, with the highest probability in our northern counties.
The dryline will begin to move back to the east early in the morning as the low-level flow veers to the west. With this in mind, we adjusted the minimum temperatures upwards by several degrees from about the central South Plains eastward, but given the uncertainty with the timing of the dryline's eastward movement, some locations could still end up being even warmer. After a series of days with a very dry air mass in place across the forecast area, low level moisture will come streaming quickly northward as an upper level low moves southeastward along the coast of southern California. Mid level isentropic lift just upstream from a low amplitude short wave ridge axis could result in scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as late Thursday night.
415 PM MST Wed Mar 10 2021 Water vapor shows long wave trof covering the western/central CONUS, with upper low shifting from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, and next upper low along the CA coast.
544 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 The cooler air is here and it will not be going anywhere anytime soon. The highest winds will be east of I- 29.
913 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 We can expect a warmer night tonight than previous nights. A 500 mb high over the southwest Gulf is in the process of expanding a ridge toward the northeast, with 500 mb heights forecast to rise 20-30 meters in the next 24 hours over the tri-state region.
A cold front will approach the area from the northwest late tonight, spreading widespread rain showers and scattered storms southeast through the area.
Line of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from northeast Iowa into south central Kansas, just ahead of the cold front. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest late tonight, spreading widespread rain showers and scattered storms southeast through the area.
354 PM MST Wed Mar 10 2021 A cool and active weather pattern with mountain snow accumulations is expected through the rest of the week as a large low pressure system meanders from the Southwest through the Four Corners.
Lows will only drop to the lower 50s to near 60 degrees. Scattered to broken lower level cloudiness will accompany the high clouds through the upcoming taf period.
Water vapor shows long wave trof covering the western/central CONUS, with upper low shifting from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, and next upper low along the CA coast.
/issued 233 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Warm, dry and breezy conditions will continue through the short term with a midlevel ridge across the southeastern US and a midlevel trough in the western US. Tonight's temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 60s with Thursday highs in the low 90s across much of Zapata and Starr counties to 70s along the coast.
232 PM PST Wed Mar 10 2021 Low pressure will move south of the area through Thursday evening with scattered snow showers and below average temperatures.
936 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 The overarching synoptic feature remains the large anticyclone sitting off the coast of the southeastern states. With the persistent fetch over the Gulf Stream, the lower troposphere has been slowly warming, and moisture increasing.
1255 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Rain chances return today and tonight with the passage of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is expected Friday and through the weekend. A second trough will cross the southern half of the region late in the day. Rain showers will continue tonight as the cold front slowly advances southeastward. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with building high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Cooler air will overspread the region on Friday, but temperatures look to once again be above seasonal averages.
The RAP indicates the low level moisture and clouds will remain over the area through much of the morning and then should pull off to the northeast pretty quick in the afternoon. Tonight looks to be pretty quiet as an area of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures will be cooler behind the departing area of low pressure with highs today expected to range from the middle 40s to the lower 50s and lows tonight dropping back into the 20s.
Chance of snow showers tonight in southern Harney County, then along the rest of our southern CWA border overnight and Thursday as the upper low continues to move south along the California coast, then inland across southern California.
A 500 mb high over the southwest Gulf is in the process of expanding a ridge toward the northeast, with 500 mb heights forecast to rise 20-30 meters in the next 24 hours over the tri-state region. Pleasant spring conditions will continue through Friday night as high pressure remains in control.
356 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Rain chances return today and tonight with the passage of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is expected Friday and through the weekend. A second trough will cross the southern half of the region this afternoon. Rain showers will continue tonight as the cold front slowly advances southeastward. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with building high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Cooler air will overspread the region on Friday, but temperatures look to once again be above seasonal averages.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche vicinity late tonight into Thursday and will gradually expand across much of the Gulf through Friday afternoon. Our forecast area will remain on the northern periphery of the building upper level ridge axis through the end of the week. Short range model guidance continues to show plentiful deep layer dry air and subsidence under the building ridge aloft through Friday, and we will maintain a dry forecast with POPs near zero.
A cold front will begin to the approach the region from the northwest tomorrow morning. A better chance of rain will move into the region on Friday as the cold front sags into our area and stalls near I-40.
Line of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from northeast Iowa into south central Kansas, just ahead of the cold front. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest late tonight, spreading widespread rain showers and scattered storms southeast through the area. The front sags south of the CWA going into Friday as high pressure builds in from the north, drying things out for a short period. Temperatures will be cooler, yet still warmer than normal on Friday with values in the 50s.
Just behind the dryline was a cold front currently progressing southward through Southern Kansas. With the southward movement of the cold front. temps tonight are not expected to cool all that much with lows in the lower 60s forecast. breezy northerly winds and falling temps could allow for lows near the Kansas border to fall into the lower 50s Thursday morning.
The building upper-level ridge and associated increasing thickness values will foster a warming trend, especially across the western half of South Florida where cloud coverage will be limited and the upper-ridge will be most pronounced.
These locations such as Fort Payne, Decatur, and Scottsboro have already dropped into the lower to mid 50s (with dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s). The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast U. A frontal boundary will be inching south into the OH valley Thursday night into Friday morning aligning along the 9-8h theta-E ridge and LLJ axis.
At least Thursday should have a weakening ridge to the east and overall less dry airmass under more SW flow aloft so not anticipating RH based fire weather concerns then. Expect lows tonight a tad warmer than climo in the mid to upper 40s for most areas and moderating even warmer for Thursday night in upper 40s/low 50s. Upper ridging will continue to amplify over the northern Gulf states from Friday into the weekend, allowing high temperatures to warm well into the 70s to lower 80s each afternoon.
1216 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 High pressure will continue just off the coast through Friday.
332 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 A cold front will move through the area today with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Patchy fog is possible during the early morning hours, mainly over the Edwards Plateau due to the higher terrain there. Underneath a strong mid level capping inversion/mixed layer in a southwesterly flow aloft, the low level jet could generate a few light showers during the morning hours, before it mixes out.
Cold front had pushed through N. JKL Mainly dry conditions and above normal temperatures are forecast Friday through the weekend with high pressure over the Northern Rockies, while a cut-off low to the south tracks from Arizona to southeast Colorado.
1020 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Low clouds and cooler temperatures have again affected areas south of Interstate 20 this afternoon.
Radiational cooling overnight will likely drop temps below freezing, ranging from the upper 20s across our northern counties to the lower 30s in our south. After a chilly start to the day Friday, highs are forecast to top out in the lower to mid 50s again.
VFR will continue over the next 24 hours, but cirrus will gradually thicken during the day Thursday ahead of a slowly approaching cold front. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 54 77 55 71 / 0 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 53 72 53 64 / 0 0 40 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 71 53 71 51 64 / 0 0 50 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 48 67 47 60 / 0 0 60 40 40.
Cold front currently extending from SE Wisconsin across west-central Illinois and into central Missouri will push SE toward the Ohio River today, and while the main focus for precip will stay to our north and west, we'll start to see just enough lift ahead of the front to develop some scattered light rain showers during the day.
A cold front will move south and waver near the area this weekend, with clouds, but little to no precipitation expected.
351 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Forecast area remains on the northern periphery of the persistent upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the work-week. Enough moisture recovery by late in the day Friday for at least a slight chance for some showers into the far north in the vicinity of a weak cold front sinking south into the GA/TN/NC border area.
(Today and tonight) Showers and storms are struggling to form in our forecast area as a cold front makes its way south. The advancing cold front is expected to stall out just past the northwest half of Oklahoma by mid morning. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds will help mitigate fire danger behind the front.
A cold front will drop south and waver near the area this weekend, with clouds, but little to no precipitation expected.
Mostly dry and calm conditions for tomorrow as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the region and persists into the weekend. Low sensible weather concerns outside of nuisance light snow in the higher elevations of central OR and mountains late today-tonight. Otherwise, latest water vapor imagery shows a upper-level trough overhead extending to a closed low positioned over the northern CA coast. Otherwise, concern turns to nuisance to minor impact light snow across portions of the high elevations of central OR and the Ochoco/John Day Highlands. Thereafter 500 mb height rises spread into the area as an upper ridge moves in from the eastern North Pacific.