Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1143 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 (Rest of tonight) Cooler conditions were being realized across the greater Tennessee Valley after a seasonably warm start to the week. Highs earlier in the afternoon topped out in the low/mid 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. A loss of daytime heating and resultant instability has lead to the lower clouds dissipating as we roll into the evening. Stacked high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast was the main feature controlling the areas sensible weather, with a light SE-S flow. Lows should be a bit milder, with lows cooling into the low/mid 60s with light winds.
233 AM PDT Mon May 30 2022 A slight warming trend begins today and persists through midweek as a weak upper ridge approaches.
Still expecting the development of the potent closed low system which quickly tracks into the northern plains. A strong jet rounding the base of the low will help support impressive amounts of bulk shear. The system quickly moves northeast by this evening placing us on the cool side/right pressure gradient of the low. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely and gusty northwest winds are expected, along with much cooler temperatures. Upper low cut off in southern Canada means more or less zonal steering flow with some weak troughiness over the area, but for the most part the result is mostly dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures and off and on breezy days - so otherwise it should be uneventful for much of the remainder of the work week.
(Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows a large cutoff off over the Great Basin, with upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows will only drop off into the lower to mid 70s.
939 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure moves offshore today and becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week. High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic this morning. The upper-level ridge has built over the Mid-Atlantic and has become a closed anticyclone. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today, near 90F along the I-95 corridor and mid-80s closer to the bay and ocean (upper 70s to near 80F at the beaches) with a southeasterly wind off the ocean/bay.
Dry and warm conditions today as upper ridging remains over Central Indiana. Dewpoints will recover back into the low to mid 60s overnight as deeper moisture moves in. A similar weather pattern is likely for Tuesday as high pressure persists. Warmer 850mb temperatures mixing down to the surface will lead to slightly warmer surface temperatures tomorrow with highs near 90 in most locations.
927 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
602 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Today) Temperatures are several degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. Dewpoints have also crept up into the low to mid 60s for most locations. The upper level ridge is centered across the Carolinas with the ridge axis extending northwestward into the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure continues to shift further eastward across the Atlantic leading to southerly flow in the low-levels. Temperatures this morning will start off in the low to mid 60s for most locations. Some of the models have a slower progression of this trough as well.
407 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022 Stacked low pressure will lift from the central Rockies across the Dakotas today. A bigger impact will be the winds, with gradient tightening as the low pressure deepens. High pressure and an upper ridge will begin building into the northern Rockies by midweek for warming temperatures and dry weather.
1002 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm and dry weather will persist today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered to the southeast.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected mid- week. Today and Tuesday An upper level low will continue to bring valley rain and mountain snow showers to northern Nevada today. Tomorrow, the upper level low will continue to cause precipitation in eastern Nevada. Lows into Tuesday will once again drop below freezing in most places but rebound into the 50s to 70s north to south.
A weak surface trof looks to linger over the forecast area as well, providing for a modest low level convergent zone. Highs on Monday will range from 90 to 95, with the higher values inland.
500mb subtropical ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and south Texas will continue to provide subsidence across the area Thursday. High pressure will continue to dominate the synoptic weather pattern with a few moderate wind gusts and mostly rain- free conditions. The upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over the Gulf pushing into the southern plains. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the southeast keeping moist air in place. Strong subsidence under the upper ridge will keep the weather dry. The highest values will only be in isolated spots for a hour or two during the afternoon.
1202 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Main concern this afternoon involves new convective development as long awaited surface cold front begins moving through the area. Deep-layer shear will continue to increase this afternoon as midlevel speed max associated with main trough axis across the Central Plains also moves east with time. Considering this, along with the ample amounts of buoyancy that appear present, initial development in the form of discrete cells to the west of the KC Metro will support both a large hail and strong wind threat, with activity migrating more towards a linear configuration in response to deep layer shear values remaining largely parallel to the incoming cold frontal boundary. This will set the stage for slightly cooler temps tomorrow and the return of dry conditions which should continue through much of Friday.
As we head through the day tomorrow, a cold front will push east into the Ohio river valley and bring a line of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky through the evening hours. The one exception will be over northeastern KY when the eastern CONUS will continue to be under a lingering longwave trough.
High temperatures for western Nevada will reach the low to mid 90s into the weekend with warmer valleys across the western Nevada basin and range heating to the mid and upper 90s. Model guidance show this low digging southwest into the weekend which would provide increase southerly flow and moisture transport into the region.
For Thursday, a cold front will approach and move through the area. However, shear values will be on the lower side. These storms will move out through the overnight hours Thursday night as the cold front moves through. Low temperatures will remain on the warmer side tonight, dropping only into the lower to mid 70s. Lows tomorrow night will be cooler than tonight across mainly southern IN as the somewhat drier air filters in behind the front. Troughing will develop aloft across the eastern CONUS on Friday in the wake of the front.
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a large dome of high pressure dominating the Florida peninsula, with little in the way of synoptic features to note. Maximum temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s across the region, a couple degrees warmer than average for this time of year.
339 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 339 AM CDT A potent area of low pressure (for August standards) over southern MN, will shift northeastward over the Upper Great Lakes by tonight. As it does so, an associated cold front will shift eastward across the area later this morning and into the afternoon. It appears that the main threat of any strong thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the cold front may occur east of the area in Indiana and lower Michigan. This activity appears to be associated with a surge in the low-level jet being induced just ahead of the approaching main upper trough. KJB 209 PM CDT We dry out Thursday night as the upper level trough axis rotates through. Slightly cooler and drier air moves in leading to a dry day Friday.
503 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 High pressure over the area today will bring a good deal of sunshine to the area with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80. A warm front will approach the region later tonight from the southwest and enhance the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms across the area.
Showers and thunderstorms chances will increase today ahead of a cold front which moves across the area tonight. Drier and cooler conditions are expected on Friday, as high pressure moves into the area. Southward trailing surface cold front to sweep east across ILN/s FA tonight. Storms look to organize on a pre-frontal trough this afternoon. Ongoing storms this evening along pre-frontal trof with moderate instability over the area. Actual cold front does not move through until late tonight, so a few showers/thunderstorms could linger until the passage. Low temperatures to range from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to normal, with highs on Friday in the lower and middle 80s, Friday night will have dry weather under a ridge of high pressure.
345 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Strong surface and upper level low positioned just northeast of the forecast area, near Gaylord Minnesota as of 08Z. Deep northwest flow behind the departing low will bring gusty conditions to the region today, especially in eastern areas, whereas locations west of I-29 will begin to see influence of surface ridging by mid afternoon. However, the ridging and associated subsidence behind the low should bring mostly sunny skies to most areas by mid afternoon, with temperatures climbing much closer to mid-August normals. Low level jet impinging on elevated warm front near the Missouri River Valley should focus greater rain potential in our southern counties, though broad lift ahead of the wave may lead to scattered light showers even north of I-90. On Friday, a cold front will move through the region.
346 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 339 AM CDT A potent area of low pressure (for August standards) over southern MN, will shift northeastward over the Upper Great Lakes by tonight. As it does so, an associated cold front will shift eastward across the area later this morning and into the afternoon. It appears that the main threat of any strong thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the cold front may occur east of the area in Indiana and lower Michigan. This activity appears to be associated with a surge in the low-level jet being induced just ahead of the approaching main upper trough.
Forecast models show scattered convection developing during the early afternoon hours over the higher terrain before moving eastward into the terminals. The weekend will see upper levels turn more into a high pressure dome where storms will form off the mountains or around the perimeter.
Early this morning low pressure over Minnesota had a cold front dropping south to Oklahoma. By this evening the low will advance to near the Keweenaw Peninsula with its trailing cold front approaching the Wabash Valley. The best upper support will be to our north closer to the 5H low and surface cyclone over the U. Freezing levels will be high so severe hail is unlikely, but progged moderate DCAPEs and precipitation loading will pose the threat of gusty winds, especially over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky where there should be the best storm organization. High pressure will build in for Friday with dry weather and lower dew points. Some valley fog may be possible around dawn if the clouds from the overnight cold front can clear out quickly enough.
Dry after midnight tonight, and on through Friday and Friday night with weak high pressure moving across the area.
However, both the NAM and GFS indicate CAPE's east of I-57 reaching above 1000 J/kg by midday, ahead of the actual cold front, which is currently back across eastern Iowa and northern Missouri. Main upper flow will be coming out of the northwest late this week, as ridging strengthens along the western Rockies.
442 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Current satellite indicates the secondary trough pushing across NE Utah and NW Colorado. A few clouds and sprinkles with this passing trough, but quite dry below 550 mb as seen in SLC's 00z sounding. Upper level moisture associated with this trough will keep some high clouds across NE Utah and NW Colorado, and the Four Corners this morning, but skies are anticipated to clear this afternoon. High pressure will amplify over the region the next couple of days.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb subtropical ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and south Texas will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA the next couple of days. Breezy conditions will prevail across the coastal sections this afternoon before the pressure gradient weakens across the lower TX coast Friday. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the lower TX coast Friday.
Low pressure over the upper midwest will provide a warm and humid southwest flow of air to Central Indiana today. A cold front associated with the low will pass through Indiana tonight ending the rain chances. Weak high pressure over the central Plains is expected to pass across Indiana on Friday and and Friday evening.
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Upper level analysis shows a somewhat weak ridge centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico while a trough races northeast across the upper Mississippi River Valley towards Canada. Subsidence from the high pressure aloft will limit convective coverage today compared to previous days. As the previously mentioned trough moves into Canada near the Great Lakes, a secondary trough will dip out of Canada into the Northern Plains. This feature will track on a more west to east direction, which will suppress the ridge that is currently close to the CWA.
We'll be picking up a southerly component to our flow as this happens, with weak troughiness to our northwest and some reconsolidation of the ridge to our east.
An upper level ridge moving over the Pacific Northwest coupled with low level onshore flow will maintain seasonable summer weather with areas of morning clouds today and Friday.
407 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 The upper ridge builds over the southeast today. Afternoon pops have been kept in the low chance range.
This wave will push a dry cold front across the cwa early this morning. High pressure moves over eastern Montana overnight with winds diminishing and modest humidity recovery. Thermal ridge rebounds into central Montana on Friday for warming temperatures across the state.
Aloft the region is under a weakness between two ridges to the east and west, however a slightly drier air mass has moved in aloft. Today a decrease in rain chances is expected as the slightly drier air mass and ridging builds in aloft, however with ridge not firmly in control, isolated to scattered storms are still expected. The sub-tropical ridge will remain to the east of the region through the period.
415 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Rain comes to an end today as the low pressure system centered over the Twin Cities early this morning lifts northeast towards eastern Lake Superior tonight. Rain showers will gradually come to an end from west to east today, with winds becoming out of the north in the wake of the low. Cooler today in the 60s for highs, then lows in the 50s tonight as skies clear out. Warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 Friday.
322 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Closed upper low over southwest Minnesota at 07Z will track northeast toward the upper Great Lakes today with weak short wave ridging moving into the region on the backside of the system. Friday afternoon should see clearing conditions spread into the area as another round of short wave ridging moves in behind the departing trough.
108 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Rain is likely with a cold front later today and into Friday. Will keep in the risk for showers/storms overnight, with the higher PoPs drifting eastward with the exiting wave. It's likely that models are filling showers in through the entire trough axis, which would focus the activity over the southeastern quadrant of the area. As afternoon approaches, the trough axis will shift southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic region, which should bring an end to the risk of showers, save for the far southeastern ridges. The cold front will finally begin to cross the area late Friday afternoon reaching Northern West Virgina by late evening.
Upper level ridging will persist over the region, bringing dry and subsident conditions through the period.
This convection was well ahead of the approaching cold front, which currently extends from low pressure over southern Minnesota into the central Plains. By Thu night, upper low closed off in Great lakes region and frontal zone has moved through. Weak short wave shows up in all operational models, sliding down back side of upper trof and bringing quick chance of more pcpn into central IL Fri night. A cold front will begin moving into central Illinois late morning, resulting in improving ceilings from west to east, as well as a period of gusty southwest winds in the afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible south of the Highway 50 corridor Thursday, spreading northward to southern Elko County and central lander and Eureka Counties by Friday. Confidence in the overall pattern remains high, but Thursday and Friday does present a few minor issues with regards to lingering moisture across the higher terrain of central Nevada. Thursday - Weak exiting storm system and lingering moisture will provide an environment for isolated convection across the higher terrain along and south of Highway 50.
359 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Surface analysis shows a high pressure system across the forecast area this morning with clouds and precipitation around during the day. Expect a weak upper level ridge to nudge across the plains on Friday.
This system will push east of the area on Thursday, with high pressure dropping in and bringing a return to dry and warmer conditions, along with mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Short wave trough and surface cool front still on track to affect the region Thursday night into Friday as they slide in from the northwest.
Cooler and drier air will filter in behind this system Thursday night into Friday.
336 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Weak high pressure moves off the coast today. A cold front will move into the area this weekend and stall.
As we head through the day tomorrow, a cold front will push east into the Ohio river valley and bring a line of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky through the evening hours. The upper levels will be characterized by multiple long wave troughs suppressing the ridging and upper level high well to the south. The first trough will lightly dig into the Ohio Valley with higher influence toward the Great Lakes. This will help swing a cold front toward the region Friday, but this front becomes diffuse as it progresses east.
A low amplitude upper level ridge will build over eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho today and tonight. On Friday the ridge will be displaced by dry westerly flow aloft south of an upper level trough crossing western Canada.
So lowered the lows a little with the eastern portion of the area having the potential to be cooler. On the surface, a thermal trough over the west coast, a frontal boundary over the northern Plains and high pressure over the mid-west.
An upper-level ridge centered across the Gulf Coast will remain in place for much of the day Thursday resulting in a typical summer pattern across the region. The upper-level ridge will finally start to break down Thursday night in response to an approaching trough and surface cold front with chance PoPs across the area.
High pressure aloft with very moist airmass in place will support afternoon high temps inland in the middle 90s and lower 90s at the coast. The main story for much of the day will be the high heat indices but after the scattered storms develop and move slowly and tap into the deep/tropical atmospheric moisture with PWATS still exceeding 2 inches expect locally heavy rainfall threat in the strongest storms with main axis between the I-95 and US 301 highway corridors with best chance of strong storms with locally heavy rainfall from Jacksonville southward through the St Johns River Basin as erratic storms continue to merge.
414 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Rain is likely with a cold front later today and into Friday. Will keep in the risk for showers/storms overnight, with the higher PoPs drifting eastward with the exiting wave. It's likely that models are filling showers in through the entire trough axis, which would focus the activity over the southeastern quadrant of the area. As afternoon approaches, the trough axis will shift southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic region, which should bring an end to the risk of showers, save for the far southeastern ridges. The cold front will finally begin to cross the area late Friday afternoon reaching Northern West Virgina by late evening.
303 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A mid level trough is currently tracking northeastward over the Great Lakes region, and is responsible for the surface cold front pushing through the area this morning. Later tonight the high pressure retreats to the southeast and return flow develops over western and central KS. Also another mid level trough digs across the northern plains, which will aid the moisture return. Models are depicting convection forming along the resulting front over the high plains. Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s.
Deep layer ridging remains in place with the mid/upper ridge moving slowly westward to the Central Gulf Coast region by this evening. Highs will be in the low to middle 90s with heat indices climbing to around 105.
Otherwise, somewhat cooler/drier NW winds of 15-25 mph will continue this afternoon with highs primarily in the mid 80s. Models prog this return flow to be relatively dry, with surface dewpoints only in the lower to mid 50s. NAM suggests a separate complex originating from the Cheyenne Ridge, impacting the northern zones near I-70 Thursday night.
539 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Rain is likely with a cold front later today and into Friday. Will keep in the risk for showers/storms overnight, with the higher PoPs drifting eastward with the exiting wave. It's likely that models are filling showers in through the entire trough axis, which would focus the activity over the southeastern quadrant of the area. As afternoon approaches, the trough axis will shift southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic region, which should bring an end to the risk of showers, save for the far southeastern ridges. The cold front will finally begin to cross the area late Friday afternoon reaching Northern West Virgina by late evening.
Deep layer ridging and a slight increase in dry air at mid-levels is leading to decreased coverage of convection across our area today (compared to the past few days). After highs mainly in the lower 90s this afternoon, overnight lows are expected to be in the mid-70s inland with upper 70s along the coast. Thursday will feature deep layer ridging with some slightly drier air filtering into the region west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers. At the surface, a weak cold front will be entering the Southeast and storms that form along it may move into the region from the west later in the day. Highs each day will be in the low to middle 90s with heat indices climbing to around 105.
122 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A fairly active period of weather is expected over the next 24-36 hours a strong late summer low pressure crosses Upper Michigan. 0-6km shear of 20-25kts and freezing levels of 9- 10kft may allow for some small hail with the strongest showers/storms. into Ontario through this time period, the associated upper-level trough will slide into the area. In addtion, the tight pressur gradient between the extiting low and approaching high pressure center will allow for breezy condtions acorss much of the are through this time period.
This will send a cold front into the area late this morning. High temperatures today will top out in the 70s and 80s with the higher values in the southwestern CWA where the front will take longer to reach.