Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
452 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH WARMER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK.
/ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/ Weak upper level impulse ahead of main upper low over the central Rockies resulting in a few high-based showers and even a few lightning strikes as close as northwest OK this morning. Southerly winds will begin to increase today as high pressures shift east of the region. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer Today as a southerly breeze kicks up. Could start seeing a few elevated showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday morning as a southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area as an upper level low begins to wobble out of the Rockies and into the plains.
LOWS WERE OVER DELAWARE AND UTAH WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
As the cut-off low off the Mid-Atlantic coast shifts eastward over the Atlantic tonight, upper ridging will strengthen across the CWA. High pressure will continue to dominate at the surface with the center sliding south of the CWA overnight.
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/ THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CWA FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE THAT TROUGH EJECTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER HIGH TO TRACK COMPLETELY ACROSS THE AREA. MADE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV/MEX A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. IN THIS WEAKENED STATE IT WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. WITH A GRADIENT OF LOWER POPS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AND HIGHER ON NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
INCREASING MOIST AIR VIA RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF AND THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN STATES WILL INCREASE CLOUDCOVER. AND WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 SKIES ARE CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF A MODEST COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING AS A RESULT OF COMPRESSED REGION OF THE NEAR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGING HIGH PRESSURE ELEMENT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE IS QUITE EVIDENT ON THE 292K ISENTROPIC SURFACE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO OCCUR FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST TO MOVE TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING.
257 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front sagging southward toward the I-74 corridor. 0-6km bulk shear remains rather weak, but is expected to increase to between 40 and 50kt later this afternoon/evening as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes. The cold front will stall out south of our forecast area in the Ohio River Valley by Sunday morning, with spotty showers lingering in the post-frontal airmass across central IL.
338 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 Unsettled period ahead as what was the western low comprising the blocking pattern across the CONUS slowly moves eastward into the Plains. This transition is reflected by the current increase in convection across the High Plains today while satellite imagery shows higher moisture levels moving northward off the far western Gulf basin.
122 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN AND A MUCH COOLER DAY. A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT BRINING NORTHERLY WINDS. ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE MERGING OF A PAIR OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
316 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH WARMER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK. SO FAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SCATTERED UPSTREAM OF AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT.
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO OPEN-UP AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY ACROSS TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LARGE SCALE BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH PHASING OF NRN STREAM AND THE WESTERN U.
402 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS HELD OVER THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TRANSITION THE FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERHEAD.
412 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ARE CREATING A NW FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THE HRRR SHOWS MORE CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS OUR NERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER WISCONSIN TODAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN WI IS LEADING TO HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENT GUSTIER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 40S.
249 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. GIVING RISE TO A MUCH WARMER NW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S EAST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F IN THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT. IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KY/VA TONIGHT. ANY ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS INVOF THE FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS KY/WV/VA COULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NW/N PIEDMONT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHEN A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE IN PLACE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS INVOF OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BENEATH STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
1237 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE REMAINED FIRMLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A VERY SUBTLE WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THERE STILL REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG/DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND A VORT LOBE ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
A WEAK SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
417 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 Clusters of thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a southward-moving cold front. The passage of the warm front puts the entire CWA in the warm sector until a cold front eventually moves across the region on late Wed night into Thu.
CIRCULATION FROM UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
124 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE.
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE SRLY FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED SE OF THE STATE. WITH EVEN WARMER CONDS EXPECTED COMPARED TO FRI. MAX TEMPS TODAY WL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS.
403 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. DEEP FULL AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON/S BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA.
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 Have an omega block setting over the middle of the country at this time with the CWA under the ridge and an upper low approaching the four corners region with the other one over the Mid-Atlantic states. a surface cold front is situated over northern Missouri. a series of three impulses are forecast to move around the upper low.
254 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 LARGE UPPER LOW NUDGES A LITTLE EASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEB AND EASTERN CO. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CO AHEAD OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL. BEFORE SMALL POPS RESURFACE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA ONCE AGAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE.
314 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. LOOKS TO BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LA/SOUTHERN MS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE ITS AXIS TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. AS ALREADY NOTED THE HIGHEST POPS. IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH AT KSYM.
307 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 Lots of sunshine over the southern half of Illinois, along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s should support development of thunderstorms along and possibly ahead of the cold front that is draped east to west across central Illinois. The 12Z models are in agreement in bringing the cold front about half way through the area this evening and then stalling it out overnight into Sunday morning. The old boundary will lift back north as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night, and cannot rule out an isolated storm along I-64, mainly in southern Illinois Sunday afternoon and evening. We will have a short wave ridge overhead Sunday, so development should be extremely limited if there is any at all.
201 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO KICK EAST OUT OF TEXAS.
A cold front remains draped across the area this afternoon. The upper ridge will continue to build across the region overnight. Dewpoints in the lower 70s also begin to surge back into the region, which will create afternoon heat index values around 105 over some of the area Thursday afternoon.
1154 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Mostly clear skies and light southerly winds should prevail for the next 24 hours as Southeast Texas remains on the western edge of a large high pressure ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tomorrow afternoon's mostly sunny skies will have morning middle to upper 70 F dew points mixing out into the lower 70s by the afternoon. Afternoon ambient temperatures in the lower to middle 90s will result in lower 100 F heat indices.
Therefore, chances of any additional thunderstorms are nil with the exception of a few lingering showers in portions of east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin as the center of the upper low moves across northern Wisconsin this evening. With the return flow develop in far western Minnesota, there could be highs approaching the upper 80s along the Buffalo Ridge.
902 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will bring humid conditions along with shower and thunderstorm chances tonight. Low pressure is expected to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon. Fries Better chances for precip are expected as deepening low pressure is still forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday, with passage across the Upper Ohio valley region expected Thursday night.
738 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Strengthening high pressure across western New York and Ontario will build eastward bringing a prolonged stretch of dry weather to the North Country through the upcoming weekend. Warmer temperatures and relatively low humidity levels are expected.
902 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 An upper level low will bring unseasonably cool and unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week.
An atypical cold low pressure system for this time of year was centered off the Oregon coast this evening.
Low level moisture finally pulling southeast though drop in dewpoint will result in upper 50s over the north to the lower 60s in the south by early Thursday morning. Large upper level low over northeast MN is expected to track southeast through morning with clouds and showers remaining northeast of our area. Heat and temperatures the main concerns with a large upper ridge building into the central US. Thermal ridge to build into the state as well, with H85 temperatures hovering around 20C to 24C through the next few days. Exception will be across the far east where baroclinic zone aloft remains in place with cooler temps across eastern IA.
The rest of the night should feature the dry passage of a surface cold front, with mostly clear skies. Winds will shift from southwest early this evening, to northwest behind the cold front.
Any cumulus will continue to clear tonight underneath a ridge of high pressure.
854 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The thunderstorms that developed along remnant outflow boundaries this afternoon have dissipated early this evening as the actual synoptic cold front makes slow progress out of northeast Iowa. The boundary is expected to push across our area later tonight through the early morning hours shifting our winds into the northwest and drawing down slightly cooler air for the end of the week. The latest surface analysis indicates dew points in the low to mid 60s behind the cool front and some of that drier air mass will filter into central Illinois on Thursday. The rest of the night should feature the dry passage of a surface cold front, with mostly clear skies. Winds will shift from southwest early this evening, to northwest behind the cold front.
727 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 A deep low pressure system over the region will continue cool and showery conditions into the weekend. Dynamics aloft will be favorable for precipitation in this portion of the region, but low level upslope flow into the higher terrain will also aid in generating favorable lift. /SVH 00Z TAFS: Showers over the Cascade mtns and over the higher terrain of northeast WA will wane this evening.
During the overnight, east-southeast winds develop as the high departs. Highs will range from the mid 80s east to the low/mid 90s over south central SD.
Any -ra associated with with departing low pressure should end across the far east early this evening.
This will send a cold front through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening with east/northeast winds taking hold of the CWA from east to west. Yes, another back door cold front. Temperatures will be very warm again on Thursday ahead of the front and with dewpoints pooling, believe the highest heat index values of this first heat episode will be observed. Have kept slight chance PoPs for Thursday afternoon and evening as it is always wise to have some chance of thunderstorms with a front moving through the area, even in the face of an upper level ridge and strong CAP.
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ The early season heat wave will continue through the weekend as upper level high pressure remains in place across the region.
The massive upper ridge axis centered across the TX Hill Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu. we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring warmer and drier conditions tonight and Thursday. Expect another mostly cloudless day tomorrow, with temperatures a degree or two warmer than todays readings. The upper level ridge will dominate the central CONUS through the weekend.
Wind fields will increase as mid-upper trough and associated frontal boundary move towards the eastern seaboard. The dry pocket of air that worked into the area today is forecast to erode as moisture increases ahead the approaching trough. Southwest flow will gradually increase as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of frontal trough approaching the eastern seaboard.
High pressure aloft continues to dominate the local weather for continued dry conditions over the next 24 hours. Higher confidence in the lower ceiling for MFE so will have BKN015 prevailing 09-14Z. /issued 242 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid level ridging will continue to hold sway over Texas through the short term. High temperatures Thursday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West. Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night will be from the mid to upper 70s to the lower 80s. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support moderate south southeast winds Thursday.
Fair weather high pressure will continue to hold over the region with clear to mostly skies prevailing. Dry high pressure now well established over the area. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
1122 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The thunderstorms that developed along remnant outflow boundaries this afternoon have dissipated early this evening as the actual synoptic cold front makes slow progress out of northeast Iowa. The boundary is expected to push across our area later tonight through the early morning hours shifting our winds into the northwest and drawing down slightly cooler air for the end of the week. The latest surface analysis indicates dew points in the low to mid 60s behind the cool front and some of that drier air mass will filter into central Illinois on Thursday. The rest of the night should feature the dry passage of a surface cold front, with mostly clear skies. Winds will shift from southwest early this evening, to northwest behind the cold front.
Broad area of precipitation is accompanying an upper level trough lifting through the Intermountain NW this evening. As the trough continues northeastward overnight precipitation will taper off from southwest to northeast.
515 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across the Central US with a long fetch of drier air advecting from Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. High temperatures will be very similar to today (if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F once again. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure throughout the period. Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and centers over the Plains.
Upper ridging will continue to build in and amplify.
1011 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Under partly to mostly cloudy skies and south winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a two prong ridge axis extends across the Florida Straits with a second draped through South Central Florida. A wind shift to the southwest is expected after 18z Thursday in response to a ridge axis developing along the northern Caribbean and Florida Straits.
The highest rain chances again setting up over interior western zones during the morning, the east of highway 301 during the afternoon hours.
1147 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 A large complex of storms that fired this afternoon across West Texas has tracked east into the Low Rolling Plains, but will dissipate over the next few hours. Recent statistical guidance is now suggesting a period of MVFR cigs encroaching on the Metroplex sites during the morning hours, but believe the better chances remain south and east based on the orientation of the low-level flow. /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ The early season heat wave will continue through the weekend as upper level high pressure remains in place across the region.
This Evening Through Thursday Night Upper ridging sits across the nrn Plains today ahead of the next trough which is over the Pac NW. but temps are now rising quickly into the low 80s. Low pressure will slide northeast into ND Thursday. Temps are expected to rise into the low 90s within the sw flow.
However, most locations should remain dry with overnight lows falling into the low 70s.
823 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Similar to yesterday upper level warm dry air (-5C at 500MB) and subsidence combined with the fast inland progression of the west coast sea breeze within the low and mid level southwest to west wind flow lead to limited convective development and coverage across the forecast area during the afternoon hours with only a few showers and storms observed.
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The weak cold front backings southwest through central Nebraska and seen on the radar mosaic at this time could be a focus for isolated thunderstorms in the southwest this evening.
Still do anticipate a gradual trend toward more cloudy conditions farther south with time late tonight as the low level flow around closed low pressure diving into the Great Lakes turns more northerly, likely dragging in pre-existing stratus already in place just to our north. MLCAPE is building ahead of the surface cold front, from east of KEAU to KONA and southwest. Further east, the warm front is located along a line from northeast of KMDZ to KFLD. Overnight the cyclone will continue southeast and with it comes the widespread clouds now seen in MN. With the strong ridging building into place.
Meanwhile, the associated surface cold front continues to shift east into Wyoming this evening.
700 mb trof will swing across the area overnight and enhance shower and thunderstorm development.
Cold front moves through Thursday afternoon and evening causing strong storms.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 93 73 91 / 60 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 71 85 / 40 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 70 85 / 50 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 89 66 80 / 60 30 40 40.