Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
148 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will gradually become centered over the local area into the weekend. Sfc hi pres from the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley gradually builds into the mid-Atlantic region today. OP models showing a weakening trough aloft diving across the region Fri. A weak upper level trough will bring a slight chc of SHRA Fri afternoon/evening. A warm front is forecast to move through the FA late in the upcoming weekend. This afternoon, weak low pressure is located just off the Carolina's, meanwhile strong high pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest. Winds and seas will diminish through this evening with high pressure building across the region. After tonight, fairly benign marine conditions are expected tonight into the weekend with high pressure remaining in control of the local weather pattern.
The spatiotemporal effects of fog and/or low stratus should be limited, and will quickly mix out by the late morning hours Thursday as diabatic heating intensifies with temperatures rising into the lower 70s. Mid and upper level flow will be weak under low amplitude ridging and a general lack of upper level support for convection. Additional development is expected Friday afternoon off of the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. This activity will have a better chance at reaching the Texas border with the upper level ridge axis shifting more eastward through the day.
Expect slightly warmer conds with highs generally in the 60s and 70s on the plains. Splitting upper trough will settle into the Rockies Friday, with pos theta-e adv regime developing over the western third Friday afternoon. As the upper trough splits and the northern stream portion moves east, positive theta-e adv will shift east across the region overnight, with chances for showers from NE WY into scentral SD.
Expect light northwest flow through tomorrow as the predominant storm track remains farther north over the northern Rockies and a low-amplitude ridge builds into the area. Warming mid-level temps and height rises tomorrow will result in a warmer afternoon, with highs topping out 5 to 10 degrees above average. A trough will dive through the western coast, and slight height falls will begin over Utah and western Colorado.
Another beautiful Spring day is expected across the Midwest as the high pressure will be very slow to move east. The high pressure that has been keeping us nice and dry for the past several days will be on the way out beginning Friday, and will open the door for a pattern change heading into the weekend. As low-level flow switches to the south behind the high, immediate advection of warmer air and moisture from an open Gulf of Mexico will begin to take place across the eastern Great Plains and Mississippi River Valley. Longer term CAMs are in agreement of a generally scattered shower coverage, which makes sense given the low QPF forecast.
Friday will see the return of more seasonal temperatures with H50 rises and southerly winds pulling warmer air north.
359 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Southerly flow will ensue today in the wake of the departing high pressure, although with the Gulf cutoff, moisture return will be slow. Given 925-850mb temperatures will moderate 1-2 degrees from yesterday, healthy mixing, and nothing substantial in terms of cloud cover, do not see why slightly warmer readings would not be achieved today. The highest POPS look warranted temporally during the daytime Friday as the 700mb low passes across the area, and spatially south of Interstate 94.
This is where greatest instability will be (100-300 j/kg) and sure enough the high res models are trending in this direction.
High temperatures in the low-mid 70s, well below normal for mid-May standards. Clear and dry tonight with low temperatures in the lower 50s.
239 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 Longwave trough continues to slowly drift east across the central US, with modest northwesterly flow in its wake across WY. Daytime heating will bring enough sfc instability to spark a few showers along the higher terrain of the Absarokas and Big Horn Mountains, with the NW flow possibly moving a few showers into the western Big Horn Basin and greater Johnson County. Showers will be a little more numerous Friday due to slightly higher temperatures expected to reach the low to mid 70s. The upper level, flat ridge will continue shifting east across the forecast area with the trough over Idaho on its heels.
This should also help temperatures reach the low 70s in most spots.
Tonight will be warmer than early this morning, with lows in the 40s.
/Issued 340 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021/ The rain is moving out as the high pressure wedge has setup behind it. The easterly flow is expected to continue through Thursday but the low ceilings will lift and scatter out leaving partly cloudy conditions for Thu. The biggest issue with the wedge building in is the cooler airmass thats moving into the area with it. Precip chances beginning Friday will be mostly non existence as strong ridging sets up over the area. As the center of this high moves off the coast, southerly flow will return to the area.
300 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week.
1221 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
357 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will gradually become centered over the local area into the weekend. Sfc hi pres from the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley gradually builds into the mid-Atlantic region today. OP models showing a weakening trough aloft diving across the region Fri. A weak upper level trough will bring a slight chc of SHRA Fri afternoon/evening. A warm front is forecast to move through the FA late in the upcoming weekend. Northerly winds 10-15 kt will continue throughout on the day on Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the area. Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure become centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Easterly to southerly winds will be below 10 kt with high pressure remaining over the region,then slowly moving off the coast.
For Today, an upper trough will move into the central Appalachians with enough moisture and some low-level orographic forcing to produce isolated showers across the far east tennessee and southwest Virginia Mountains and foothills. For Tonight, surface ridging and dry conditions will prevail with another night of good radiational cooling producing chilly temperatures for mid-May.
Weakening zonal flow takes root over the southeast today and Friday as an upper level trough moves across the eastern U.
With WI being on the northern periphery of the high, can expect light westerly winds with a few diurnally driven clouds to develop through the afternoon. The main difference between yesterday and today will be warmer temps in the mid to upper 60s, but would not be surprised to see a few spots crack 70 degrees. Overnight temps will be warmer in the 40s as well, thus not expecting any frost potential through the end of the week.
Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s today. Highs will then climb into the lower to mid 70s on Friday.
A large area of high pressure will ride the flow from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys toward the southeast United States. The high will be close enough to be the dominant feature locally, with largely dry conditions and below average temperatures. Toward the end of the near term, and as the high settles over the southeast states, winds will become more southerly in Arkansas. This is a signal that it will get warmer and more humid, and is the beginning of a long stretch of unsettled weather.
Cloud cover should stay partly cloudy to mostly sunny throughout the day, allowing for temperatures to reach into the low 70s across the area.
254 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will continue to settle into the region today, with a ridge building into the Plains. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the short term period making for a rather pleasant end to the work week.
150 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure centered over the Midwest this afternoon will drift towards Ohio tonight. The highs will be centered over Ohio at some point on Friday and should persist into the weekend. High pressure over the Midwest this afternoon is giving us beautiful weather across the region. Temperatures are still running slightly cooler than average about 10 to 15 degrees. High pressure will slowly move towards Ohio tonight. Temperatures will bottom out in the low to middle 30s away from the lakeshore by sunrise Thursday morning. High pressure and quiet weather will continue on Thursday with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be a touch warmer in the 60s. Large upper level trough will move east of the area through this period followed by broad upper level ridging that will build east out of the central United States.
Although, still blended in some cooler guidance given we're in a rather dry air mass that has been cooling off at night rather efficiently. Southerly flow will be in place on Friday as the region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west.
A mix of clouds and sun along with neutral temperature advection have made for another cool May day with afternoon highs reaching the lower 60s.
High pressure centered over eastern Missouri and Illinois will maintain a generally light northerly flow through the day. The pleasant conditions will continue through Friday with winds beginning to veer east then southeast Friday night as the high becomes centered near the Blue Ridge mountains.
The combination of ridges will reinforce the dry airmass in place resulting in mainly clear/sunny skies through Friday night.
Attention then turns to the W/NW where sfc based convection is expected to develop along weak warm front and trailing trough axis, mostly likely across the Sandhills in the 21-23Z time frame. Downdraft temps are forecast to be quite cool in the low 50s, owing to dry airmass.
An upper trough will then move across the region on Friday.
High pressure will present tranquil weather conditions through the short term period. Tonight, overnight lows will be near 40 for much of the area (yay!) due to the amplification of the ridge and some subtle warm air advection at 850 mb. This "high and dry" weather pattern breaks down this weekend in response to a 500-mb trough arriving onshore of California.
Today through Friday: Northeast Wisconsin's weather will remain under the influence of high pressure through much of this time period. The main impact these features will have on the area, will be increasing temperatures near the ridge axis and a steady increase in diurnal cloud cover.
There could be enough lift for isolated showers over the higher terrain of Steuben and Bradford counties. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with low to mid 60s. Frost advisory probably not needed with temperatures again several degrees warmer than this morning. Friday: Again a little warmer with highs mid to upper 60s. Weak high pressure will slide eastward early Friday and give way to a wave of low pressure moving across NY and PA. Given the low CAPE values and mid level lapse rates, thunder appears unlikely.
Upper level flow will finally become northwest late tonight into Thursday as a trough over the Great Lakes moves east. The northwest flow aloft will result in building high pressure at the sfc. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s expected on Friday.
245 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Dry weather is anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today and Friday as high pressure prevails at the surface as does a northwesterly flow aloft.
931 PM PDT Wed May 12 2021 Weak high pressure aloft will bring seasonal May Gray weather west of the mountains through Friday.
Expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the 70s.
1128 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 As high pressure drifts across the Midwest the next couple days, our weather will remain on the tranquil side. Quiet weather continues as ridge of high pressure inches towards the Illinois River Valley this evening. Tranquil weather on tap through the short term, as high pressure slowly drifts across the Midwest. Main active pattern then begins, as a warm front lifts northeast across the region.
Winds across the eastern 3 terminals will gust to near 20 knots at times through the night as high pressure settles into the region. North-northeast winds will increase to around 20 knots at ALI/CRP/VCT this evening through ~06Z as a surge of high pressure moves through the region. With cloud cover remaining in place overnight, MinT values will be on the mild side with lows ranging from the low-to-upper 60s. As drier air pushes in on Thursday, should see enough breaks in the clouds to increase temperatures a bit more than today's with highs reaching the upper 70s and a few western locations reaching the low 80s.
However, out there, humdities will likely start to nudge up during the afternoon as cloud cover increases as the trough over the Dakotas continues to move east. Which means at this point Red Flag conditions don't look to happen as where we'll have the best winds will coincide with the highest humidities, while the lowest humidities will line up with the lightest winds. Looking at h85, the trough across the Dakotas has an ever so faint h85 LLJ and plume of moisture transport, the nose of which is forecast to track from eastern SoDak toward central IA Thursday night. This weak trough and h85 moisture transport will continue slowly work east across eastern MN and western WI during the day on Friday.
151 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north and lingering low-level moisture will maintain wedge conditions across the region into Thursday.
345 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 The upper flow becomes more northwest during the short term as the upper ridge builds into the eastern states. 41 High pressure remains in control to start heading into the weekend which will maintain dry conditions across the area.
316 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will pull east through the weekend, and this will lead to warming temperatures under more southerly flow at the surface.
Weather conditions are currently quiet, with a weakening upper level trough producing scattered mid-level clouds over our forecast area. Forecast soundings indicate a deeply mixed environment, yet with high pressure nosing in, the overall flow is weak. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer, with upper 30s in the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom, and 40s for the rest of the region. On Friday, despite the incoming ridge and relatively dry surface conditions, enough instability is in place to produce scattered showers during the afternoon. Initiation should begin across the high terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, and then showers will shift southeastwards as they develop.
Otherwise, mild temperatures are expected both today and Friday with highs ranging from the low 70s across the north to the upper 70s south of I-80. Elsewhere, clouds stick around most of the overnight hours and low temperatures will remain warmer in the mid to upper 40s.
Shower activity is almost completely dissipated over southwest ND, but with the support of the mid-upper level trough, the shower activity may linger into the late evening or early overnight hours. Otherwise expect another quiet remainder of the night with cool temperatures in the lower 3s southwest to lower 40s east. Showers and thunderstorms are firing along a surface boundary with the added forcing from a mid and upper level trough moving over the same area. Isolated showers are possible Thursday afternoon and early evening, with the highest probability at KJMS where a weak thunderstorm can also not be ruled out.
358 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north and lingering low-level moisture will maintain wedge conditions across the region into Thursday.
344 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 A high pressure centered over the Midwest has taken control over the Mid and Deep south. High pressure at the surface will wedge southwest across our area and keep conditions dry as broad upper ridging/some northwest flow aloft will be in place.
An unseasonably cool air mass will continue to advect in from the east behind it, while a cold front continues to sink southward over the Gulf. Mid-May sunshine should still allow highs to reach the low 70s in most areas. At upper- levels, northwesterly flow is in place aloft through the short term period with a ridge over the Great Lakes anchoring a tilted omega- like pattern. The ridge axis remains north of the area, keeping light northerly winds in place, but still expect decent radiational cooling conditions with most areas falling into the 40s, within a few degrees of record lows.
For now, areas where clearing happened early in the day (west of I-29) expect temperatures to climb into the lower 70s, with mid 60s for those along the I-29 corridor, and upper 50s to lower 60s for areas in SW MN and NW IA. The rest of the evening looks fairly quiet, with the surface pressure gradient finally relaxing a bit as the region is no longer under the partial influence of the high pressure system off to the east.
317 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 The ridge axis extending from the Great Lakes region southwestward into Kansas will slowly slide to the southeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. The latest HREF, as well as NAM and GFS model runs are still indicating a warm front will develop across northern Kansas into central Missouri with a complex of showers and storms developing on the nose of a 35 to 40 kt low level jet over eastern Nebraska late tonight.
305 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Will start the day with an upper ridge over the Western US and a trough over the east.
300 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 255 AM CDT High pressure remains in control of our sensible weather here, which will continue our unusually quiet stretch for mid-May.
An upper low across the OH valley this morning will keep a trough over much of the eastern US into the first part of the weekend, with SFC/LL high pressure sprawled over the region as well. This boundary does retreat further north as a warm front Sun night. On Tue, deep upper trough moves out of the desert southwest and reaches the nations mid-section on Wed.
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over IA/N IL and NW IN. strong ridging was in place over the Upper midwest and western Great Lakes. Aloft the ridge in place over the Western Great Lakes is expected to make a slow progression southeast to IN/OH/PA by Friday. Meanwhile at the surface the large and broad high pressure system in place over our area will remain settled across Indiana and the Ohio Valley.
Upper level northwesterly flow will be maintained over the central plains through the short term period as southwest Kansas sits between weak troughing over the eastern CONUS and weak ridging over the western CONUS.
1243 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 209 PM CDT High pressure continues to control our weather with mostly sunny skies. Low dewpoints in the low 30s / upper 20s will allow temperatures to drop once again, creating another round of frost, limited to low-lying areas and river valleys in rural regions. With the high to our east/southeast, winds will become southerly overnight, allowing weak warm-air advection for a short amount of time, especially in my western counties, so frost will most likely be sandwiched between I- 39 and the City of Chicago and points southeast into northwest Indiana.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms does appear to be shifting southward so if that trend continues the chances will likely be a little lower and temperatures a couple of degrees warmer.
What we are currently dealing with is abundant cloud cover but northwest flow aloft and northeast flow in the lower levels should allow for the present moisture to evaporate with the aid of daytime heating.
As the cold front continues to move out of our region, cool and dry air will filter in from the north. We'll be on the back edge of an upper-level trough as high pressure begins to move into the region. This will result in a high temperature of 68 degrees for Tallahassee, which is just about 20 degrees below normal! Areas away from the Gulf Coast are expected to be in the same position, areas along the coast are expected to see high temps in the low to mid 70s. Below seasonal temperatures will continue with lows in the lower to mid 50s and highs Friday in the mid 80s to around 80.
122 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature for the next few days with generally clear skies and a slow warming trend to temperatures.
Low pressure into the Bay of Campeche and high pressure across the Southeast US help continue the northeasterly flow into this afternoon before turning easterly into tonight. Low pressure develops into the Plains on Friday, turning winds more southeasterly. Temperatures reach toward the low 80s today and mid 80s on Friday.
1053 PM MDT Wed May 12 2021 19z surface analysis had trough from western ND to the Black Hills to central CO and another trough from eastern MT into central WY. Water vapour had upper trough from southern SK into far eastern WY.
Hi-res forecast soundings and sky cover guidance agree well on seeing some afternoon diurnal cu develop as temps reach the mid- upper 60s (near 10 degrees cooler than climate normals for this time of year). Friday morning lows will bottom out in the low 40s, essentially limiting any frost potential. This high will slowly drift off to the east over the weekend, and as it does so, return flow on the back side of the high will allow for the return of southerly winds and warmer temperatures across southern IN and central KY.
1005 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will gradually become centered over the local area into the weekend. High pressure is off to our NW today, with cool N/NE flow across the local area. OP models showing a weakening trough aloft diving across the region Fri. A weak upper level trough will bring a slight chc of SHRA Fri afternoon/evening. A warm front is forecast to move through the FA late in the upcoming weekend which may result in ISOLD-SCT convection. Northerly winds 10-15 kt will continue throughout on the day on Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the area. Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure become centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Easterly to southerly winds will be below 10 kt with high pressure remaining over the region,then slowly moving off the coast.
Quiet weather this morning with weak surface flow and a mid level trough axis cutting across central North Dakota. A few lingering showers tied to the trough are persisting mainly over Renville County. As the trough axis moves east today, a 700 mb low is forecast to cut off and stall over central and eastern North Dakota, with trailing northwest flow aloft containing shear vorticity. Lows tonight are finally expected to remain above freezing across the entire area, though it could be a close call for the typical cold spots across central and southwest North Dakota.
516 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A low amplitude and transitory ridge will move through the Rocky Mountain region through tomorrow. This will usher in temperatures running 5 to 8 degrees above normal today and slightly warmer tomorrow. The jet cresting the leading edge of this ridge will be over the northern mountains this afternoon providing the weakest ascent.
530 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north and lingering low-level moisture will maintain wedge conditions across the region into Thursday.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: A high pressure centered over the Midwest has taken control over the Mid and Deep south. High pressure at the surface will wedge southwest across our area and keep conditions dry as broad upper ridging/some northwest flow aloft will be in place.