Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are just beginning to cross into both north-central and far western North Dakota, associated with a mid-level lee trough in central Montana and a cold front draped west to east across North Dakota. High-res models have a few brief showers form, but overall height rises from ridging aloft is likely hindering any major development in the next few hours. The better chance for thunderstorms begins late tonight, as the low-level jet quickly strengthens and helps provide a better source of lift.
Low clouds were actually expanding westward this morning due to the weak low level easterly flow out of the inverted trough to the east. Deep low level moisture (up through 700 mb on the 12z DVN sounding) will delay the anticipated clearing of low clouds and result in cooler temperatures than previously expected today. 06Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes with a weak boundary from southeast Wisconsin into eastern Missouri.
WITH THE UPPER-RIDGE STILL CONTROLLING THINGS ON THURSDAY. AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. LONG WAVE TROUGH.
357 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
351 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS THE CENTERED OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AR WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED EAST NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN CO AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEB. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LNK SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MO. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING US IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE LOWS ONLY COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEB. WITH A SURFACE TROF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPT COOLER WHERE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PUSHING THE HIGHEST QPF WITH THE THURSDAY MCS ACROSS THE NORTH. ITS COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON THE PATH OF THE LOW.
1149 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SD. WITH A SURFACE TROF MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST SD BEHIND THE TROF.
/ISSUED 1043 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/ THE ONCE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA YESTERDAY MORNING (160 DAM 85H / 1250 DAM 70H HEIGHTS) IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER THE RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT SOUTHERN SIDE OF A 595 DAM ARKANSAS CENTERED 5H RIDGE. EXPECTING THIS CONTINUED WEAKENING OF NORTHERN GULF RIDGING. ALONG WITH AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS RIDGING.
144 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 UPPER-RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER AS UPPER-TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITHIN THIS FLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO REGENERATE A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE IN CASE THE WARM FRONT/CAPE POOL SURGES FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
247 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS ONLY MIXING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.
ACTIVITY HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG A STALLED SFC BNDRY ATTACHED TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN KS.
THE SUMMER-LIKE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL GIVE WAY TO AMPLIFYING FLOW ALOFT FEATURING A WESTERN U.
THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS DUE TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT AS MENTIONED. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
1138 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2015 COLD FRONT HAS COME MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH JUST SW OF FAR WEST TX. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES (GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER), RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UA INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT THEN UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
145 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL SHIFT INTO NRN AL ON THU WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTION WITH A SUBSIDENCE CAP.
549 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
131 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COOLER.
150 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING HAS HELPED PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK SURFACE HEAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND UPPER RIDGING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED COVERAGE. PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
BUMPED DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND STABILIZATION THIS MORNING, BUT STILL EXPECTING A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
137 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2015 Early this morning, a warm front is analyzed from Manhattan to Olathe to Osage Beach. The warm front lifting northward through the area has been slower to do so then model depiction. That, as well as morning cloud cover across the northern CWA will help keep highs in the mid to upper 80s across northern Missouri otherwise, highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the rest of the CWA.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD ALSO ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL MCS TRACK. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHOULD TEND TO ADVECT SOME HEALTHY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM PLAINS EML BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL INDIANA. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO WORK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DUE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON/S BAY REGION COOL AIR HAS CIRCULATED OVER OUR AREA. THUS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA THURSDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF A BOOST TO THE UPDRAFTS.
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD TO CENTRAL AL AND MS. PREVAILING IN THE LOWER 90S.
322 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 12Z UA ANALYSYS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 18Z SFC DATA PLACES AN INFERRED LOW JUST EAST OF KOMA WITH A WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR KSTL. DEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE FORCING OF AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.
351 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF A WESTERLY SHIFT IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
BROADSCALE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH NORTH OF THE STATE AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS GENERATING BROAD NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OTHER THAN AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.
BEYOND THAT H5 RIDGING COINCIDENT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
435 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 WARMER FOR MOST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND PUSH EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A SIZABLE H7 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN US WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSES OFF ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO FILTER DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
615 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
342 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PROVIDING SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTH BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE HUNG AROUND IN SHERIDAN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US.
H5 INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. BUT RIDGING IS NOT REALLY BUILDING BACK SOUTHWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.
224 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWERS 60S IN THE SOUTH. DUE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON/S BAY REGION COOL AIR HAS CIRCULATED OVER OUR AREA. THUS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
503 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOMORROW AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
Otherwise, a mild night on hand with lows only in the low to mid 70s.
346 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES TO OUR EAST AND WEST WILL SLOWLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL NOT OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY.
352 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) The upper level ridge will begin building across the southwest states on Thursday, with weak northwest flow aloft developing across the Southern Plains by Thursday evening.
Beginning Thursday afternoon, a strong ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies and will lead to increasing temperatures and continued dry conditions. This unseasonably warm ridge is expected to bring record heat over the weekend.
THINGS SHOULD STILL WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN POPS OUT, BUT STILL BELIEVE WE'LL PROBABLY RUN A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN U. BY THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RETROGRADING ALLOWING THE BELT OF WESTERLIES CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF U.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/. ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FIRE UP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE INCREASING LLJ LATE THIS EVENING PER THE HRRR AND THEN SLIDE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL.
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. AND OUTFLOW FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT NOW NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES.
306 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS PROVIDING SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHILE KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK WAVE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WAS RESULTING IN SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OF THE UPPER TX AND LA COASTS.
146 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING HAS HELPED PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK SURFACE HEAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND UPPER RIDGING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED COVERAGE. PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL ATTAIN SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH HIGHER CAPE LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. WE EXPECT CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO CONVECT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING.
THE LARGER SCALE MODELS STILL HAVE A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE CONVECTION HAS MUCKED THINGS UP.
N OF A FLAT RIDGE STRETCHED OUT ACRS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. THE ANTICYCLONE AT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE UPR ANTICYCLONE WL SHIFT WWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILD STRONGLY NWD. THE FCST AREA BECOMING POSITIONED ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET AND WITHIN FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF WL BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION AT TIMES. WITH AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TOMORROW WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. NOT SURE COLD AIR ALOFT WL OFFSET COOLING/DRYING AT THE SFC WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING CYCLONE TRACKING NE UP THE OHIO VALLEY. ESPECIALLY SINCE POPS WL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FCST WHEN UPR TROF SHARPENS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
424 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
406 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WEAKENING CONVECTION IN IL HAS STALLED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT CONVECTION OVER IA BEING FUELED BY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER SURGING BOUNDARY. THINK THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN MUCAPES RISE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.
212 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH SOME COASTAL CLOUDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO FAIR AND SEASONALLY HOT INLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL BACK INTO OREGON WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA SETS UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS PM/EVE FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KS. ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND MESO HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS POTENTIAL EXIST FOR OCNL DEVELOPMENT AS MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT COUPLE WITH THE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERLYING THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY TURNING COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO IOWA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH.
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
The winds will then transition to the northwest to north around 15z as a cold front moves into the area. Will also expire the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. However, this warmer weather will take a hit Tuesday as a cold front moves into the area, w/fropa at KMAF ~ 14Z.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AS A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
520 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
436 AM MDT TUE MAR 15 2016 THE COLD FRONT WORKED THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN AN UNSETTLED WEST FLOW.
150 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TRENTON TO NORTON AND ALMENA.
For highs today, we used a 50-50 blend of yesterday's highs and the MAV guidance which is on the warmer end of the guidance envelope.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Warm and increasingly windy conditions are in store today as a dry cold front pushes across the region later this afternoon. Cooler but seasonable temperatures will return Wednesday underneath a fast zonal mid and upper level flow.
Negative tilted trof drives that Low pressure system across upper Mississippi valley and while overall columnar moisture is limited here, we do see surface dew points around 60F during pm/evening hours as front drives in. Front makes complete passage by 06z with westerlies drawing in some slightly cooler/drier air thereafter. The trof's passage will bring H5 height falls from close to 570 DM to closer to 554 DM by midday Wed, when we'll net highs about 10F cooler, and that trend continues into Thur with another 40-50 DM fall and wnwlys drawing temps down maybe another 5-10F for highs closer to 60F Thu pm. An upper level low migrates into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
EXPECT THIS LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND TO ALI/CRP BY 08-09Z WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY FALLING TO IFR RANGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHTER OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
404 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
133 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 UPPER TROUGH DISSOLVES AS IT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE ON TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TRACK EAST ACROSS VA ON WED. AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NC LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CWA THIS EVENING PRODUCING SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRIANGLE AREA AND CONTINUING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN BETWEEN GREENSBORO AND ASHEBORO AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW 60S. WHEREAS DEWPOINTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT ARE IN THE LOW 50S AND CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARDER TIME GETTING THROUGH A SMALL CAP IN THE SOUNDING THERE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
423 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION. ALLOWING A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 140- 145W AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN MONTANA SWD INTO NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. 15/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC DEPICTED THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY NEAR THE NRN CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NW COAST WED-THUR. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS IS THEN PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM WASHINGTON SWD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS MON.
256 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A VERY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY AS MODERATE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO BRING SOME DRIER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEK.