Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MID MORNING. EXPECT THE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT REACHING THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE RIO GRANDE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOWER COAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
225 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NOW. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 40 THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RADIATE INTO THE LOWER 40S. BROAD SFC RIDGING WILL CONSOLIDATE TO A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. BEACHLER 248 PM CDT NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC JET COMING ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US BEING FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH HELPING TO CURVE THIS JET ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND WESTERN CANADA.
EXPECT COOLER AIR TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS ONLY LIGHT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE.
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK. AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING EAST TODAY.
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE LEVELS.
BAGGY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD A DRY DAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ONE OF THE CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NE LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND NW WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday] Scattered thunderstorms may impact the terminals this afternoon into the early evening, with KTLH having the lowest probability for thunder.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALREADY SO HIGHS AROUND 70 IN SOME AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD. 500 MB RIDGE NEAR CALGARY EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE IS NEAR THE BRANDON MANITOBA AREA AND WILL DROP THRU CNTRL ND TODAY. MOSTLY NOW CENTERED RIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER BRANDON. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND THEN ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTN WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE IN THE RRV AND ERN ND. TEMPS IN NRN AREAS A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WHILE SRN AREAS TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOW 70S.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR WNW WINDS. ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE 65-70F RANGE.
OVERALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE MORESO GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MARCHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA AS TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
629 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 AVIATION DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERIOR SECTION OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
306 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 WX MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE TX/W LA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. A WELCOME REPRIEVE OF COOLER AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DML A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/ SHARPENING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SHORWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO TO LOCK DOWN COOLER AIR ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GOOD DYNAMICS AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
DESPITE THE COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
JORDAN TUESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH IN NW FLOW AND DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL IN ADVANCE OF HEIGHT RISES ACCOMPANYING A LONGWAVE RIDGE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
252 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1130 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016 WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
150 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
1051 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016 High pressure will be over the region today resulting in above normal temperatures. The high pressure weather pattern shift east on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler, unsettled pattern.
UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING.
COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND TUESDAY AS FRONT WORKS INTO CAROLINAS WHILE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK.
140 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CROSS PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PIVOTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD BY MIDWEEK. AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION AS IT BECOMES SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
low to mid level ceilings should remain common over the region through the afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis this evening and overnight.
630 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/ 15Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
The degree of moisture and lift is more uncertain for Tuesday, so have low confidence on measurable precipitation, even with a diffuse lift with the progressive trough.
215 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR W WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DIGGING IN BEHIND IT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE STATE.
/ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE TX/W LA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. A WELCOME REPRIEVE OF COOLER AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DML A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
FURTHER SOUTH DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 40 THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RADIATE INTO THE LOWER 40S. BROAD SFC RIDGING WILL CONSOLIDATE TO A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. WITH DEEP TROUGHS OVER BOTH COASTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
348 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW OFF THE COAST. AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE (NORMAL RANGE IS FROM THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST) ALONG WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OUT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. 42 MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS.
646 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEK.
149 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW PRES OFF THE CALIF COAST IS MAINTAINING S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUE. OF INTEREST WILL BE THE THERMAL TROUGH. THIS MAY ACT MUCH LIKE A COLD FRONT. AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT SITS FARTHER OFFSHORE DRAWS CLOSER. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WED AND THU WED. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LAST UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES.
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE FCST AREA BY END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST (AND A FEW LOWER 70S AT THE COAST).
THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A FOCUSING SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY EASES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE FA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. RANGING FROM THE LOWERS 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
AND COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE H85/H7 COLD FRONT ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING COUPLET IS SHARPER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. PRECIP WILL NOT RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN THE ONTARIO LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TIE INTO THE ONE GENERATED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SETUP FOR WARM SEASON MCS PRODUCTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SWRN IA.
DESPITE THE COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL. AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A cold front associated with low pressure over southern Ohio is slowly making its way across central Kentucky early this morning. However, as an upper level trough approaches Tuesday, some showers are expected to develop. Temperatures today will range from the mid 60s over southern IN to the lower to mid 70s across east central KY. Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler, topping out in the mid 60s across the region.
HOWEVER SUB 10 KFT FREEZING LEVELS AND SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE AREA ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF HAIL.
350 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT.
1253 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 Another mostly cloudy and cool day is unfolding across central Illinois, thanks to a slow-moving upper trough extending from Wisconsin southwestward to Kansas. Think any clear spots that develop will fill back in due to adequately steep lapse rates in the vicinity of the approaching upper trough axis. While cooler/drier post-frontal air has overspread all of central & southeast Illinois since yesterday, the threat for a few showers will persist today. Forecast area remains on the southern side of a sheared upper-level trof that extends from eastern Canada into the southwestern United States. Otherwise, abundant cloud cover and cool northerly low-level flow support cooler than normal highs today, with most locations topping out in the 50s.
251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH WIND. CLEARING TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING NORTHEAST.
344 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
Broad Upper Ridge still over region and influences of TD Bonnie has shifted a little farther east.
Strong high pressure will be centered over the Pacific Northwest today and will shift east to Idaho Wednesday. the thermal trough at the surface will shift inland from the coast this afternoon bringing the coastal winds onshore while giving the interior the warmest temperatures so far this year. Wednesday will be a little cooler across the west side as the upper heights lower and the onshore gradient produces a slightly increased onshore flow and some morning clouds on the Coos coast. However, it will be a slightly warmer day for the east side. Temperatures should be just a touch cooler versus Wednesday.
1050 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Morning surface analysis has a cold front pushing through Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. Any thunderstorm activity today should develop west of Houston within the higher moisture axis.
An upper level trough has been parked just east of the Florida peninsula for several days now. The surface pattern is weak, composed of a ridge axis which reaches west across the Central Florida peninsula. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Similar to yesterday, there may be more than one round of precipitation in the Lower Keys as the cloud line cycles.
However, the timing of the low ceiling and vis should be shorter than 30 minutes. /issued 408 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ The area remains under the influence of an upper level trough, which can be identified on latest water vapor satellite imagery extending across the state and into the southwest coastal waters. And just like in the previous couple of days, the sea breeze boundaries will again act as focal points for convection to develop, while the influence of the upper trough may enhance overall atmospheric instability.
Strong high pressure aloft along the west coast will shift east across the Great Basin through midweek. This high pressure will strengthen across region late in the week. Prominent feature to note in morning water vapor and H5 analysis is the strengthening mid level ridge oriented from the Cali coast east into the western Great Basin. Said ridge will continue to expand east into the area over the next 24 hours, then build overhead through the end of the week.
Upper level low continues to slowly track to the east across Arizona.
A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the work-week. Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under eroding high pressure.
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front will move into the region today.
A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the work-week. The only changes needed for the early afternoon update involved adjustments to hourly trends as cirrus/cumulus-filtered insolation and slightly lower dewpoints support a rise into the mid 80s for most locations off the ridges. Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under eroding high pressure.
533 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest today with warm and dry weather.
745 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Moisture wrapping around a mid/upper level low centered over western ND this morning will continue to bring showers to areas from Havre south to Lewistown and pts east this morning.
1034 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Cooler temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday are expected today across the Central High Plains region in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region overnight. The main upper trough axis in the split flow aloft over the U. moves east across the Central High Plains region this evening with ridging over the southwest U.
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
The focus will shift to the possibility of convection this afternoon as an upper level low pressure area over the southwest CONUS approaches the region. /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ An upper level low currently over southwest Arizona will be the main weather maker for the the rest of the work week and through the weekend.
Model guidance suggests scattered afternoon/evening activity with sea breezes and trough. and upper ridging over the area.
752 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday.
1020 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
trending towards the HRRR which shows warmer temperatures in areas that currently have significantly less cloud cover. This trend will continue through Wed into Wed night as a cold front slowly approaches from the NW.
The upper level ridge is going to have a major role in continuing to weaken these showers as they move in, so I'm not expecting much in the way of rainfall totals or intensity, but PoPs will increase a bit later this afternoon, especially west of I-65. Diffuse surface pattern at the surface will contribute to generally light winds, and high pressure aloft ensures we will have very little chance for precipitation the next 24 hrs. Look for mainly mid and high clouds to stream in ahead of an upper trough situated to our west, but VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period.
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 80s in the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee to near 90 in the CSRA.
716 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Aviation High pressure will bring another mostly sunny day today then a cold front will touch off some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Upper level ridging will move slowly east across western Washington today bringing mainly clear skies and another warm day.
1003 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday.
Diffuse surface pattern at the surface will contribute to generally light winds, and high pressure aloft ensures we will have very little chance for precipitation the next 24 hrs. Look for mainly mid and high clouds to stream in ahead of an upper trough situated to our west, but VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period.
Lack of any significant lift may be primary negating factor for convective development today as a weak s/w ridge is moving eastward. still feel that we should see showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon across the region as convective temps are reached and as s/w ridge shifts east.
/issued 511 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ An upper trough over the SE Conus Atlantic seaboard fills a bit, as Bonnie weakens over the Carolinas.
555 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Cooler temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday are expected today across the Central High Plains region in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region overnight. The main upper trough axis in the split flow aloft over the U. moves east across the Central High Plains region this evening with ridging over the southwest U.
1203 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Hydro High pressure will bring another mostly sunny day today then a cold front will touch off some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.