Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early this morning, unseasonably warm and moist air continues to surge into the area in advance of a potent cold front that extends from the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle area northeast across central Kansas and into northwest Missouri. By early afternoon, the cold front will be moving into northeast Oklahoma with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected to blossom in the warm sector in advance of the cold front as a mid-level low currently over the the southwest United States surges into the southern Plains and the cap weakens. As we move into the late afternoon hours, the cold front will surge through eastern Oklahoma with additional thunderstorms developing along it.
(Today) Generally clear skies and mild conditions for early November continued across the region, with a troughing west / ridging east pattern in place. Starting out west first, a deepening trough was oriented north/south from south/central Canada, across the Continental Divide, to a developing upper low just south of the 4-Corners. This deepening upper low should move to the NE, producing a neutral to slightly negatively tilted upper trough into Saturday. Upper ridging over the northern Gulf will be shunted more across the east coast, as the western trough develops and moves eastward into the weekend. High pressure off of the New England coast will provide a SE flow across the Tennessee Valley today.
(Today and tonight) Classic La Nina upper low across West Central Texas today. Main upper low moves across the Panhandle into Oklahoma today, with he dry slot moving across West Central Texas.
328 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 A few light snow showers remain across portions of central SD, but should dry up over the next few hours as moisture associated with the upper-level trough continues east. Tonight, light winds across and east of the James River Valley should allow for temperatures to drop to 20 degrees or cooler. On Saturday, the sfc pressure gradient begins to tighten as a strong low pressure system slides east from southern Alberta to southern Saskatchewan Canadian provinces. 1 (on the higher end of guidance) highlights a few areas west of the James River Valley as having a >60% chance for maximum wind gusts on Saturday of >34 knots, with the greatest likelihood being across Corson County (up to a 90% chance).
Today and Tonight: A deepening high-amplitude trough is evident in water vapor imagery this afternoon with its base entering the Desert Southwest, while bumpin' southwesterly flow continues across the central CONUS. This trough will be the main focus this forecast period, with it ushering in meaningful rainfall area-wide and potentially accumulating snow in eastern Nebraska. Highs Friday will top out in the 40s area wide thanks to northwesterly winds ushering in cooler temperatures. The warmer pavement/ground temperatures should make quick work of what falls and melt most of the snow quickly with some slushy conditions being found where it is snowing most.
Initial thinking is that the transition of the upper trough will help push out the stratus that has developed over much of the eastern forecast area, but models have certainly been wrong about the persistence of stratus before! Any lingering low clouds will affect forecast temperatures. A modest pressure gradient should tighten under a transient ridge behind this passing low, which should bring breezy southeasterly winds during the day and warm highs into the 50s.
Upper trof crosses the Canadian Rockies tonight, promoting pressure falls across the northern Plains with southerly flow increasing. Low level thermal ridge peaks across the area Saturday, supporting highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Fast moving cold front crosses the forecast area Saturday evening.
228 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Warmer than normal temperatures will persist into the early part of the weekend ahead of a strong frontal boundary.
Gradients between the frontal trough and high pressure along the east coast will cause brisk southerly winds gusting 30 to 35 mph ahead of the front by Friday afternoon. Strong winds ahead of this front will be driven by the strengthening gradients around the low, as well as a 50+ kt winds above the 2000 ft level. Behind Friday night's system, southwesterly flow aloft and an amplifying ridge will develop over the region again, bringing a return to much above normal temperatures, and likely dry conditions through midweek. Late in the week, another progressive large scale trough should approach from the west, and could bring another stormy pattern.
1226 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (This evening through Friday) The WV imagery was showing a strong upper level trough over the western US with a ridge along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, southerly flow was transporting gulf moisture north across west central Texas with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
Did take some of the colder valleys in the east down a few more degrees and also bumped up the lows atop the ridges, given the current trends in the observations. The start of the extended will feature a slow moving, albeit weak, cold front that is progged to move from west to east through the region Saturday and Saturday night.
416 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Warmer than normal temperatures will persist into the early part of the weekend ahead of a strong frontal boundary.
An inverted trough will be to the southeast of the area this morning, with this trough flattening through the afternoon into Tonight, as the high to the north moves more toward the northeast.
(Rest of Today) The Tennessee Valley remains in between an amplified area of high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and a deepening mid/upper trough over the Southern Rockies that is shifting into the Red River Valley. The aforementioned ridge will remain the more dominant of the two features, which is giving us a clear sky and yet another dry day today. This drier air will be more difficult to erode until right before a cold front moves into our area late tonight into Saturday morning (much more on this in the section below), which could mitigate our rain chances for tomorrow.
641 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (Today) Generally clear skies and mild conditions for early November continued across the region, with a troughing west / ridging east pattern in place. Starting out west first, a deepening trough was oriented north/south from south/central Canada, across the Continental Divide, to a developing upper low just south of the 4-Corners. This deepening upper low should move to the NE, producing a neutral to slightly negatively tilted upper trough into Saturday. Upper ridging over the northern Gulf will be shunted more across the east coast, as the western trough develops and moves eastward into the weekend. High pressure off of the New England coast will provide a SE flow across the Tennessee Valley today.
1005 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 High pressure will provide warm weather for the remainder of the week. Showers will develop by Saturday ahead of a cold front.
This is all ahead of the cold front slated to arrive to our western border by midnight tonight.
After a good bout of rain overnight for the Lower Keys, conditions have certainly dried out across the Florida Keys. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, which is a few degree cooler than at this time yesterday.
Rising snow levels will limit accumulating snowfall to near the higher pass levels where a few inches will be possible.
Rising heights, dry air, low-level ridging, and northeasterly low level flow have kept us nice and fair. Temps are in the low and mid 50s across the forecast area, with some upper 40s noted as well. Onshore flow will be the cause of this, as high pressure shifts off the coast of New England into the northwestern Atlantic. This will increase onshore flow in the lower troposphere this afternoon and tonight. This, plus an increase in low-level moisture, will result in much warmer overnight lows - likely in upper 50s and lower 60s. Upper ridging does remains fairly strong over the area with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows in the low 60s.
622 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Classic La Nina upper low across West Central Texas today. Main upper low moves across the Panhandle into Oklahoma today, with he dry slot moving across West Central Texas.
The arrival of a much cooler airmass will mean temperatures struggle to reach 40 in the low desert valleys and upper 20's in the mountains today. Fresh snow pack and clearing skies overnight will drop lows into the teens for much of the mountains and 20's elsewhere in the low desert valleys Saturday morning. A few cold spots like Ouray, Silverton, Crested Butte and Gunnison will potentially see temperatures drop even farther into the high single digits, barring any cloud cover that might inhibit radiational cooling. The high country of the Flat Tops and Gore Range can expect another fresh round of snow showers as well.
A few light snow showers remain across portions of central SD, but should dry up over the next few hours as moisture associated with the upper-level trough continues east. Tonight, light winds across and east of the James River Valley should allow for temperatures to drop to 20 degrees or cooler. On Saturday, the sfc pressure gradient begins to tighten as a strong low pressure system slides east from southern Alberta to southern Saskatchewan Canadian provinces. 1 (on the higher end of guidance) highlights a few areas west of the James River Valley as having a >60% chance for maximum wind gusts on Saturday of >34 knots, with the greatest likelihood being across Corson County (up to a 90% chance).
In the valley, current temperatures are mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s (a few degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago) with dew points in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
1009 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Warmer than normal temperatures will persist into the early part of the weekend ahead of a strong frontal boundary.
655 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Warmer than normal temperatures will persist into the early part of the weekend ahead of a strong frontal boundary.
Lower lapse rates will keep snow accumulations mainly in the 1-3 inch range, but with the higher amounts over the Park Range and Rabbit Ears pass region. Across lower elevations, considerable warmer temperatures are expected for Saturday given the strong downslope winds and low level warming expected. Strong mountain winds will diminish Saturday night as the stable layer lifts and cross-barrier flow at the ridgetop weakens slightly. Still, the HREF suggests gusts up to 55 mph will remain possible overnight, mainly contained to the higher elevations of the Front Range.
At mid afternoon, a cold front extended from near Marinette to just west of Green Bay and Appleton to east of Wautoma. On Saturday, an intensifying low pressure system will move across Wisconsin to Lake Superior during the afternoon. For Kewaunee and Door counties, the High Wind Watch was replaced with a High Wind Warning. Saturday Night Through Friday Gusty winds will slowly ease Saturday night as the main low pressure lifts north over southern Canada on its way to James Bay.
The clear skies and light winds will combine with very a dry, cool air mass behind the cold front to produce favorable radiational cooling conditions, and cool overnight lows. On Saturday, temperatures will warm back up into the low to mid 70s for highs under clear skies.
306 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 High pressure will move offshore through tonight. Low pressure and it's associated cold front will track through the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley this weekend.
Given the cold air advection, lows will range from the low-40s north, to upper 50s south. The cold front also looks to quickly rebound, influencing highs tomorrow with mid-60s north, and low to mid-70s south. As the skies clear into tomorrow night and winds decouple, temperatures should drop into the low to upper-40s.
(This evening through Saturday) The center of the closed upper low was currently located over the Texas/New Mexico state line and will continue to move east over the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon and early evening. As the low passes over the Panhandles late this afternoon, the best deformation zone will be over the Panhandles but will extend southward into the extreme southern Panhandle. Weak surface ridging will settle over the region early Saturday morning leading to light winds. Skies will also clear out in the wake of the departing upper level low and we will be left with strong subsidence aloft through Saturday afternoon.
243 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 A low pressure system will bring windy and showery conditions to the area tomorrow.
1211 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Classic La Nina upper low across West Central Texas today. Main upper low moves across the Panhandle into Oklahoma today, with he dry slot moving across West Central Texas.
153 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 High pressure will provide warm weather for the remainder of the week. Showers will develop by Saturday ahead of a cold front.
208 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Warmer than normal temperatures will persist into the early part of the weekend ahead of a strong frontal boundary.
233 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 A low pressure system will bring windy and showery conditions to the area tomorrow.
Closer to morning, a warm frontal boundary off this low will help induce a quick shot of precipitation. Overall, rain will be the dominant precipitation type, although a little light snow or perhaps even brief light freezing rain (or sprinkles) may be mixed in. Neither snow nor freezing rain are expected to last long enough nor be widespread enough to create large impacts. As a result of the warm frontal boundary, most of the forecast area should be warmer Saturday than this afternoon. Quickly trailing behind the warm frontal boundary will be a dry cold frontal boundary.
205 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 High pressure will linger across the region into Saturday, with well above average temperatures forecast through the weekend.
141 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Upper-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico remains over Florida, while an upper-level low spins near the Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure centered off the New England coast extends southward over the state.
(This evening through Saturday) The cold front responsible for today's active weather will be exiting our forecast area this evening, bringing the chance for severe weather further to the south and east. Behind it, an Arctic airmass is in place with temperatures already in the low 40s per regional observations. With a warm ground and marginal surface temperatures (near or perhaps even a smidge above freezing), accumulations are not expected.
Onshore flow will be the cause of this, as high pressure shifts off the coast of New England into the northwestern Atlantic. This will increase onshore flow in the lower troposphere this afternoon and tonight. This, plus an increase in low-level moisture, will result in much warmer overnight lows - likely in upper 50s and lower 60s. Upper ridging does remains fairly strong over the area with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows in the low 60s.
247 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 High pressure will linger across the region into Saturday, with well above average temperatures forecast through the weekend.
350 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure will continue across the CWA through Saturday night. Currently, a cold front currently stretches from the central Great Lakes back through central TX.
138 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Water vapor shows split trof axis moving through the Plains with parent low over the TX panhandle. Strong west to east jet extends through the Pac NW with trof just offshore BC. Upper trof currently just offshore the BC coast will quickly slide eastward into the Canadian Rockies on Saturday, with mild sw/w downslope winds and thermal ridge passing overhead pushing temps into the 50s, with 60s south/east of the Black Hills. Cold front moves through northeast WY and far western SD by late afternoon, then central SD in the evening.
105 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (Rest of Today) The Tennessee Valley remains in between an amplified area of high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and a deepening mid/upper trough over the Southern Rockies that is shifting into the Red River Valley. The aforementioned ridge will remain the more dominant of the two features, which is giving us a clear sky and yet another dry day today. This drier air will be more difficult to erode until right before a cold front moves into our area late tonight into Saturday morning (much more on this in the section below), which could mitigate our rain chances for tomorrow.
A large upper level trof current extends across eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Much warmer highs are expected with widespread 60s.
Otherwise, temperatures are still a few degrees cooler than this time yesterday with values in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s.
The big change is that the High Wind Watch was upgraded to a Warning as confidence is high that this event will occur across the region tomorrow. As this Low moves out through Saskatchewan it'll drag a strong cold front through the area. This will bring some strong winds through the area, with the highest gusts expected over the western half of the CWA.
Downslope warming, will push high into the lower to mid 60s. An upper trough and closed low crossing Saskatchewan into Manitoba Canada will drive a cold front through the area overnight.
(This evening through Saturday night) Upper level low center over the southwest Texas Panhandle was starting to move more northeast. The low should continue to move to the northeast through tonight and it should be just northeast of Kansas City by 12z on Saturday morning. A batch of rain and snow has developed on the leading edge of the low across the central and eastern Panhandles. Snowfall accumulations on grassy surfaces could reach 1 to 2 inches in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle as thees areas will be in the precipitation the longest in the northeast quad of the upper level low.
607 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (This evening through Saturday night) Upper level low center over the southwest Texas Panhandle was starting to move more northeast. The low should continue to move to the northeast through tonight and it should be just northeast of Kansas City by 12z on Saturday morning. A batch of rain and snow has developed on the leading edge of the low across the central and eastern Panhandles. Snowfall accumulations on grassy surfaces could reach 1 to 2 inches in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle as thees areas will be in the precipitation the longest in the northeast quad of the upper level low.
507 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Water vapor shows split trof axis moving through the Plains with parent low over the TX panhandle. Strong west to east jet extends through the Pac NW with trof just offshore BC. Upper trof currently just offshore the BC coast will quickly slide eastward into the Canadian Rockies on Saturday, with mild sw/w downslope winds and thermal ridge passing overhead pushing temps into the 50s, with 60s south/east of the Black Hills. Cold front moves through northeast WY and far western SD by late afternoon, then central SD in the evening.
626 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The center of the closed upper low was currently located over the Texas/New Mexico state line and will continue to move east over the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon and early evening. As the low passes over the Panhandles late this afternoon, the best deformation zone will be over the Panhandles but will extend southward into the extreme southern Panhandle. Weak surface ridging will settle over the region early Saturday morning leading to light winds. Skies will also clear out in the wake of the departing upper level low and we will be left with strong subsidence aloft through Saturday afternoon.
Water vapor imagery highlights a closed low over the southern Plains, with tornadic convection pressing east towards the Mississippi River. A deep and nearly cutoff cyclone is centered to the north of Hispaniola, with curvature tilting eastward with height. CIMSS low level vorticity analyses and the 00Z FL RAOBs paint the western extent of the low level cyclonic curvature over Central and South Florida, well to the west of the 200 mb max. In between the two cyclones, an upper level ridge axis registered rising heights across FL, with strong descent spreading southeast across Florida and Cuba as the northwesterlies assimilate into the base of the cutoff. The late afternoon was pretty interesting for the coastal waters southwest of the Lower Keys.
626 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front responsible for today's active weather will be exiting our forecast area this evening, bringing the chance for severe weather further to the south and east. Behind it, an Arctic airmass is in place with temperatures already in the low 40s per regional observations. With a warm ground and marginal surface temperatures (near or perhaps even a smidge above freezing), accumulations are not expected.
646 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 A low pressure system will bring windy and showery conditions to the area tomorrow.
727 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Have decided to expand the High Wind Warning for the mtn areas of zone 33 and zone 34. Lower lapse rates will keep snow accumulations mainly in the 1-3 inch range, but with the higher amounts over the Park Range and Rabbit Ears pass region. Across lower elevations, considerable warmer temperatures are expected for Saturday given the strong downslope winds and low level warming expected. Strong mountain winds will diminish Saturday night as the stable layer lifts and cross-barrier flow at the ridgetop weakens slightly. Still, the HREF suggests gusts up to 55 mph will remain possible overnight, mainly contained to the higher elevations of the Front Range.
Snow will continue into the night and Saturday as a cold front approaches.
445 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Water vapor shows split trof axis moving through the Plains with parent low over the TX panhandle. Strong west to east jet extends through the Pac NW with trof just offshore BC. Upper trof currently just offshore the BC coast will quickly slide eastward into the Canadian Rockies on Saturday, with mild sw/w downslope winds and thermal ridge passing overhead pushing temps into the 50s, with 60s south/east of the Black Hills. Cold front moves through northeast WY and far western SD by late afternoon, then central SD in the evening.
Clearing trend continues throughout the region as the trough which passed through the area slides towards the east.
(The rest of tonight) The severe weather threat has now shifted into central/southwest AR and out of our CWA as sfc cold front has now moved through the majority of the area. Still expect a few showers or a stray thunderstorm near the front, which is trailing the severe QLCS, and some additional light showers associated with moisture wrapping around upper low remain possible overnight near OK/KS border. Mainly will see much cooler and somewhat blustery conditions tonight before winds eventually die down. Updated forecast will reflect lower thunder chances and cooler temps in the wake of the front.
Midnight infrared satellite imagery showed the departing midlevel cyclone near Wichita, with the pronounced deformation across the eastern zones.
50 inch are expected for most areas along and west of the Highway 431 corridor, with lessor amounts further east as the line weakens more substantially.
3) Sharp cold front results in a notable cool down THU/FRI. Quiet conditions continue across the region as a pronounced upper level low just southeast of our area continues its journey northeastward. Heading into the evening, models continue to show an upper level low progged to move eastward across the International Border. While the best moisture and forcing remains across Canada, will likely see a few impacts across our area, mainly north of I-90, as it's sfc cold front grazes the region overnight. Temperatures as a result will be a touch cooler than Saturday, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.