Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
410 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 Gloomy short term period expected as wedge of high pressure and southerly flow aloft advect moisture into the region ahead of the next weather system. Better rain chances will move into the state on Sunday as large low pressure system over the Plains drags a cold front through the area.
The fog should begin to mix out by 1600 UTC as drier air penetrates into the region behind the Pacific cold front. /issued 252 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/ A rather sharp UL trough is positioned from NRN MB/SK into Chihuahua this morning.
Low pressure is located along the foothills of the Southern Rockies this morning while high pressure is over the Atlantic. Aloft an upper low is passing the 4 corners region while the active southern jet is pulling Pacific moisture northeast across Mexico and into the southern plains and Mississippi Valley. Moisture will continue to be drawn north into the low. There may be an outside chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon or this evening at interior locations, but the better chance will be Sunday when the cold front moves in. A cooler and drier air mass will spill in behind the front Sunday night with near normal temps expected through mid week. Widespread dense fog may linger through Sunday morning across the gulf waters as warm and moist air is lifted into the plains ahead of a cold front.
As the front lifts north as a warm front, expect mainly scattered showers throughout the day today with 30-40 POPs. A large scale trough, currently centered over the Four Corners region, will swing eastward. The main trough will break into two pieces of energy, with a closed low tracking north across the northern Plains and the main trough digging south across northern Texas. The main trough axis will finally eject into the Mid-South during the day on Sunday. By then, the cold front will already have moved through much of the area.
It will be cold to chilly every day with some patchy freezing fog possible in the mornings, mainly up north.
Showers will become more widespread through the morning, with a broken line of strong thunderstorms likely to develop along an advancing cold front, first across E OK about 21z and into W AR by 00z. Quick improvement in conditions will occur after the line of storms/cold front move through. Precipitation chances will continue to increase today, especially into the afternoon hours as strong 150 kt upper jet streak lifts into the region ahead of main upper trough axis. In addition, a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out given the low LCL heights with 0-1 km helicity in excess of 300 (m/s)2.
radar showing increasing weak returns across roughly the northern half of the area as thermal advection and overall forcing for ascent increases ahead of an approaching trough. An upper trough along the Rockies will continue to move to northeast during this period. A trailing cold front will approach the mid south by late Saturday night, and will provide additional forcing for convection.
High pressure will ridge across the area at the surface and aloft through the period.
332 AM MST Sat Dec 28 2019 The high amplitude upper trough is now crossing the Four Corners region, with deep southwesterly flow ahead of the trough across the Great Plains. KUDX radar shows snowfall spreading across western SD, with the strongest band located from Faith to Wall to Pine Ridge. Current temps are hovering right around freezing, so some minor icing may occur, but it will be hard to get anything more than a light glaze at those temperatures. The trough will finish cutting off this afternoon, then swing northeastward into the central and northern Plains tonight into Sunday morning.
In fact, temperatures will continue to warm as the morning wears on as a warm front lifts northward through the area, also returning dewpoints back into the 50s by afternoon. The primary impacts from this approaching weather system is expected late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves through the forecast area. Dry weather is expected for the end of 2019 with cooler temperatures closer to seasonal averages for this time of year. Initial vis and cigs will occasionally be reduced early this morning as warm front lifts north, with slight improvement by mid/late morning. Moderate to heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms are expected early this evening as a cold front moves through.
701 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 Atlantic high pressure stretches across FL to the Gulf of Mexico through today with a moist southeasterly flow. Mid level ridging aloft the area will inhibit any thunder and also allow temperatures to warm to above normal. High pressure stretching across the waters will keep winds east or southeast.
258 AM MST Sat Dec 28 2019 Split trough currently working through the forecast area. It appears the influence of this low will be on the low side, as the latest model trends have kept the most likely track of accumulating snowfall south and east of the forecast area. The northern part of the split trough will swing through today. TWH Sunday - A potent mid-latitude cyclone will continue to plow northeast across the central plains, just barely missing us.
Most of the rain should move east out of our FA by 21Z but we could see some lingering activity thru 00Z with main mid to upper trough axis remaining to our west. Some breezy WNW winds will continue at least thru mid day Sun and, as a result, wind chills may not make it much above freezing across NW OK. Right now, it appears only low rain chances will accompany a mid to upper trough traversing the Southern Plains Thu-Fri mainly over our SE zones where enough mid to upper level moisture and lift will reside.
Bulk of the dynamics remain close to the upper low which digs well south of the area, minimizing precipitation into Sunday night.
1022 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 Band of higher moisture, mainly concentrated in the lower levels, and elevated SE flow on the southwest side of a ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous showers across the area into the afternoon.
Gilstad Split trough currently working through the forecast area. It appears the influence of this low will be on the low side, as the latest model trends have kept the most likely track of accumulating snowfall south and east of the forecast area. The northern part of the split trough will swing through today. TWH Sunday - A potent mid-latitude cyclone will continue to plow northeast across the central plains, just barely missing us.
Water vapor imagery is showing a strong system of low pressure off the coast of British Columbia sending moisture onshore.
However, conditions will improve later tonight behind the cold front that will move through the region late this afternoon into tonight.
223 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 Strong ascent associated with a negatively tilted trough, will continue to foster numerous showers and storms along and ahead of a Pacific cold front. A secondary cold front, with much colder air, will sweep across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight.
202 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 An upper trough crossing the Rockies today develops a closed low and will be reinforced on Sunday.
1213 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 Veering westerly components will dominate the next 16-18 hours with drier air as upper level low pressure trough sweeps through. A trailing upper trough passing just before daybreak Sunday may generate more clouds in the 5000 to 1000 AGL layer, though prospects for snow showers are too low to mention. A surface cold front also will pass through swinging winds to the north. The fog should begin to mix out by 1600 UTC as drier air penetrates into the region behind the Pacific cold front. /issued 252 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/ A rather sharp UL trough is positioned from NRN MB/SK into Chihuahua this morning.
253 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 Despite the warm front lifting northward out of forecast area as of 20z, latest RAP/CAMs continue to indicate rather meager MU CAPES, between 100 and 300 J/kg in warm sector. However, they do continue to indicate fairly decent 0 to 1 km bulk shear values between 40 and 55 kts for the late evening through overnight hours, as well as 0- 1km helicity of 200-400, just ahead of prefrontal trough. Expect a bit of a break Sunday morning through most of the afternoon hours, before main cold front slides through with another round of showers over portions of southeast MO and southwestern IL.
In fact, temperatures will continue to warm as the morning wears on as a warm front lifts northward through the area, also returning dewpoints back into the 50s by afternoon. The primary impacts from this approaching weather system is expected late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves through the forecast area. Dry weather is expected for the end of 2019 with cooler temperatures closer to seasonal averages for this time of year. Southeasterly winds will increase ahead of the front and will veer to westerly to northwesterly after the cold front passes through this evening.
247 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 (Tonight and Sunday) An upper trough was centered over the Rockies and High Plains early this afternoon. A Pacific cold front was moving east into central and north central Texas, and winds were from the west behind this front across our area. With the trough axis still to our west, lingering showers remained across some of our eastern counties, generally east of a Baird to Fort McKavett line. A secondary cold front will push south into our area during the day Sunday.
Early Mon widespread pcpn will be well east and a cool down is expected behind boundary number two, as high pressure SFC/LL high pressure settles in and upper flow dampens. This system will develop a pretty deep upper trough by Thu across the plains. Its associated cold front will pass late Fri.
A cold day compared to what we have been seeing as some of the low clouds cleared out.
230 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 A negatively tilted upper level trof is moving across the region this afternoon, with an attendant polar front diving south across the northwestern combined Panhandles.
/issued 701 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019/ Atlantic high pressure stretches across FL to the Gulf of Mexico through today with a moist southeasterly flow. Mid level ridging aloft the area will inhibit any thunder and also allow temperatures to warm to above normal. High pressure stretching across the waters will keep winds east or southeast.
A northerly flow aloft is in place over Utah this morning with a 105kt jet diving down western Utah on the back side of the trough that is trying to exit the area. These showers will continue into the afternoon hours while the trough continues to very slowly progress eastward due to it transitioning back into a closed low as it crosses the Rockies. A ridge over the West Coast will shift into the Great Basin tomorrow but is expected to weaken thereafter. This is due to the next upstream storm system splitting and diving south along the California Coast owing to the first closed low continuing to slowly meander across the Great Plains.
647 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 The cold front has moved through the TAF sites.
This is just under record high values for Milwaukee but warmer than record for Madison.
Wind is the primary concern, but 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity of 250 m2/s2 to 350 m2/s2 across the area will support low-level mesocyclones with the strongest line segments, especially where the line segments best align with the moderately strong 0 to 3km south-southwesterly shear.
Farther north lower coverage is expected and have kept rain chances mainly in the low scattered range. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s across the interior to the lower 70s from the Cape south along the coast.
340 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 21Z sfc map shows organizing low pressure across central KS with the low center forecast to track across central and northeast KS this evening.
443 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 An approaching cold front will lead to widespread rain for the start of the week.
A cold front will bring numerous showers and a few thunderstorms tonight through Sunday, with a the potential for a few strong storms with gusty winds. This system will swing a cold front across the forecast area on Sunday afternoon.
Confidence is lower across southwest Nebraska as there a several uncertainties that could attribute to snowfall amounts but decided to trend toward lower amounts based on the lack of moisture seen this morning and early afternoon along with temperatures remaining warmer all morning until presently. Looking at bufkit soundings from the NAM, RAP, HRRR and SREF there are strong winds in the sfc to 800 mb layer with the most recent HRRR having the highest wind speeds at 60+kts between 900 and 800 mb layer for Sunday night.
403 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 An approaching cold front will lead to widespread rain for the start of the week.
winds will veer tomorrow bringing high dewpoint air blowing over over cooler water.
21Z sfc map shows organizing low pressure across central KS with the low center forecast to track across central and northeast KS this evening.
Current radar imagery is showing a lull in shower activity early this evening, and the latest HRRR suggests only scattered cells until closer to 12Z tomorrow morning when showers will increase from the west as a cold front nears the mid state.
316 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest KS, with inverted trough stretching northward into the central Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows broad trough covering the Rockies and high Plains, with ridge along the west coast. Low pressure within the trough is developing over eastern CO. KUDX radar shows light to locally moderate snow across a good portion of western SD in upslope midlevel flow regime to the north of the developing upper low. Main batch of pcpn with the developing upper low to the south will start to push into far southwest and south central SD late this afternoon and especially this evening. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times tonight into Sunday over areas mainly east and southeast of a line from Dupree to Pine Ridge.
414 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest KS, with inverted trough stretching northward into the central Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows broad trough covering the Rockies and high Plains, with ridge along the west coast. Low pressure within the trough is developing over eastern CO. KUDX radar shows light to locally moderate snow across a good portion of western SD in upslope midlevel flow regime to the north of the developing upper low. Main batch of pcpn with the developing upper low to the south will start to push into far southwest and south central SD late this afternoon and especially this evening. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times tonight into Sunday over areas mainly east and southeast of a line from Dupree to Pine Ridge.
/issued 202 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/ An upper trough crossing the Rockies today develops a closed low and will be reinforced on Sunday.
A cold front is moving east out of the forecast area. /issued 247 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/ (Tonight and Sunday) An upper trough was centered over the Rockies and High Plains early this afternoon. A Pacific cold front was moving east into central and north central Texas, and winds were from the west behind this front across our area. With the trough axis still to our west, lingering showers remained across some of our eastern counties, generally east of a Baird to Fort McKavett line. A secondary cold front will push south into our area during the day Sunday.
This activity is in response to a nearly neutral upper-level trough that is currently moving through the Rockies today. A potent 500 mb jet streak and increasing lift ahead of this trough has allowed rain to overspread the forecast area this afternoon with the potential for severe storms later this evening. The surface warm front associated with this system has pushed into Iowa with fairly mild temperatures in the 50s throughout Missouri. A cold front will sweep through by early tonight bringing with it the threat for severe weather. The upper trough will begin to eject out onto the Plains late tonight into early Sunday morning. Sunday will be much cooler and northern Missouri may see some wrap around precipitation as the upper low meanders across the Northern Plains and towards the Lower Great Lakes.
950 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019 The cold front is almost out of our area and slowly pushing across the coastal plains. /ISSUED 647 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/ The cold front has moved through the TAF sites.
Current radar imagery is showing a lull in shower activity early this evening, and the latest HRRR suggests only scattered cells until closer to 12Z tomorrow morning when showers will increase from the west as a cold front nears the mid state. Even though Middle Tennessee remains largely rain-free, ceilings have dropped to MVFR as the low-level jet continues to increase.
215 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 A deep closed low over the central Plains has sent a cold front through the area, and this will result in a cooler day today compared to yesterday.
Generally southerly surface winds will be increasing during the period ahead of the cold front. Timing of cold front passage looks to be after the end of this forecast period. GM Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 49 57 37 51 / 90 100 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 51 58 36 49 / 70 100 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 49 58 36 48 / 80 100 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 51 58 34 46 / 60 100 40 10 10 TN.
1007 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest KS, with inverted trough stretching northward into the central Dakotas. Upper level analysis shows broad trough covering the Rockies and high Plains, with ridge along the west coast. Low pressure within the trough is developing over eastern CO. KUDX radar shows light to locally moderate snow across a good portion of western SD in upslope midlevel flow regime to the north of the developing upper low. Main batch of pcpn with the developing upper low to the south will start to push into far southwest and south central SD late this afternoon and especially this evening. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times tonight into Sunday over areas mainly east and southeast of a line from Dupree to Pine Ridge.
Generally drier conditions will take hold across much of western Kansas today and tonight as a closed upper low lifts northeast out of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest, allowing for drier air to spread into the high plains of western Kansas within a northwest downslope flow. However, increasing mid-level moisture on the backside of the departing upper low in conjunction with a developing H7 baroclinic zone may result in a brief period of light snow this afternoon into early evening across portions of central Kansas. As for temperatures, colder air will spread southeast across the high plains of western Kansas today, lowering H85 temperatures well below 0C.
Daytime heating and mixing, along with the arrival of a cold front, will quickly boost winds to west-northwest 15G25KT at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF, and 20G30KT at KDRT.
High pressure centered to the northeast early this morning, will move toward the east this afternoon, then to the southeast Tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. As the high moves the flow will become less onshore Today, helping to cut down on moisture available for showers.
/issued 223 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/ Strong ascent associated with a negatively tilted trough, will continue to foster numerous showers and storms along and ahead of a Pacific cold front. A secondary cold front, with much colder air, will sweep across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight.
1044 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2019 Broad trough of low pressure will move east of the Divide overnight, leaving us under strong northerly flow aloft. Weak snow showers will likely persistent through evening hours, mainly across the higher terrain, diminishing from west to east. Another low pressure system dropping south along the California coast will deepen across the western half of the Great Basin Sunday evening and overnight. Our CWA will be sandwiched between two areas of low pressure: One over the UP of Michigan and another off the southern California coast.
There is good agreement that although the area will see accumulating snowfall, amounts will be on the lower end.
Meanwhile, and upper level ridge cuts northwards across the western Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern United States. Short Term Update - High pressure will continue to dominate Keys weather overnight, keeping moderate to fresh breezes. The robust flow along with ample boundary layer moisture and surface dew points in the lower 70s will allow for isolated to scattered low topped showers. A broad ridge to our north will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes across Florida Keys waters.
Cooler Than Usual. A cold front has brought colder air into West Central Texas. This colder air will help produce afternoon highs today slightly cooler than usual late December highs. For tonight, light winds and clear skies will produce lows mainly in the 25 to 30 range; that too is much cooler than usual late December lows.
An area of low pressure is ejecting northeast into the Great Lake Region this morning. A cold front stretches south across the Mississippi Valley then southwest into the local area. A secondary front stretches from the low southwest into OK and North Texas and is diving southeast.
No significant accumulations expected as moisture profile is shallow and forcing rather weak as we move under the col region between two upper level low pressure systems.
Low clouds over much of central and eastern Kansas will gradually spread eastward/develop back into the area, and mostly cloudy conditions are anticipated through today into much of Monday as the upper low is slow to depart. Dry weather will prevail to conclude 2019, with cooler temperatures closer to seasonal averages for this time of year.
Regarding tonight, short term/hires models really crank up a stout deformation axis this evening as the main upper level low pressure deepens. The low strongly deepening no doubt. The upper low, once expected to lift into northern Minnesota, now settles in northwest Iowa. The low finally moves off by mid wee.
Monday morning wind chills are likely to range from the low to mid 10s.
The associated pre- frontal trough and cold front will sweep across this evening and overnight. Due to the strength of the low level jet, have upgraded the high wind watch to a warning for late today and tonight. Weather system now on our doorstep, but moving more northeast than east so it will take a while for rains for spread across much of the area, whereas tonight system will kick through more quickly as cold front pushes through. GM Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 48 55 36 51 / 70 90 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 50 57 36 48 / 30 80 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 48 55 36 47 / 60 100 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 51 57 33 45 / 30 70 30 0 10 TN.
Behind the cold front, mid-level clouds were gradually sliding eastwards with additional low-level clouds starting to build into southeast Kansas along and behind a secondary cold front. Morning lows will bottom out in the low to mid 40s across our western CWA with areas east of Highway 65 in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. By Sunday night, the cold air mass will have moved completely overhead with lows in the low 30s.
/Issued 304 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/ Low clouds/patchy fog continue across portions of northeast Oklahoma, along/north of secondary cold front.
A cold front will move through the TAF sites in the next 6 hours shifting winds from the north while CIG/VIS remain VFR.
401 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Water vapor loop indicated upper low was located over eastern NE. Upper low forecast to move into southwest MN then turn back to the south and east in IA on Mon. Blowing snow is expected to be confined mostly to the ND side as some freezing drizzle/freezing rain will be possible over parts of northwest/west central MN. This will produce the potential for freezing drizzle/freezing rain mainly over the MN side but cant rule out the freezing precip couldn't move into eastern ND.