Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite cold air advection during the day on Thursday, abundant sunshine should allow temperatures and some warm air advection ahead of an approaching clipper system should allow temperatures to reach the lower 70s in more locations. High pressure will hold on but Friday temperatures should be well below normal, due to the strong cold air advection behind the front. Further west, return southwestern flow will help to keep low warmer in the lower 50s.
Currently, a cold front moving thru E/SE portions of the region is triggering a line of scattered rw/trw. High pressure settles over the region again during the day tomorrow, going east of the CWA by the afternoon, allowing a NW wind regime to become southerly, giving the area a nice warmup which carries into Friday. Upper level amplified ridge builds over the central Plains going into Friday/Friday night. This will have to be monitored for any northward push of the low, which could push the threat for storms into at least the Greeley/Wichita county areas.
The boundary and region of increased upper level lift will finally shift completely out of the forecast area tomorrow as a reinforcing front and northern stream trough axis slides through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The wave is embedded within a broad trough covering the central US. The trough continues making steady eastward progress with the back edge of the showers in central Iowa.
325 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
Of more important note is various forecast soundings showing 25-30 mph of wind at the top of the mixed layer along the Buffalo Ridge, which combined with RH values in the lower to mid 20s, could result in enhanced fire weather concerns. Ridge axis shifts east for Friday with continued quiet conditions across our immediate area. Again, temperatures in the 60s look to be a good bet although perhaps a bit cooler across SW MN where a weak backdoor cold front and north/northeasterly winds may keep temperatures in the upper 50s.
Low pressure will pass well south and east of New England over the weekend.
This activity may linger into the evening hours before dissipating overnight as large-scale forcing for subsidence spreads over the region in the wake of the trough. This activity will drift eastward and diminish during the morning hours on Friday with the highest probabilities remaining across southern Kansas. The chances for any afternoon redevelopment on Friday appear rather low at this time as we remain under the influence of mid/upper ridging. The central CONUS mid/upper ridge is progged to break down as we move into Sat as a vigorous mid/upper trough moves into the Rockies.
An upper level high pressure ridge amplifying today through the intermountain west will move to near the Texas-New Mexico border tonight with slight mid level warming likely creating too much of a bump in the sounding profile to generate isolated showers, per GFS runs at least. RMcQueen Upper ridging will begin to move overhead tomorrow and will allow for highs to warm into the mid/upper 80s.
Northwesterly winds continue to weaken this evening amidst building high pressure beneath zonal flow aloft. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 48 69 47 71 / 10 20 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 47 65 46 66 / 10 30 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 46 65 45 65 / 10 30 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 44 60 41 61 / 10 30 30 10 10.
This shift has also allowed skies to clear out and as a result we could see fog form in the low lying areas this morning. Cloud coverage will begin to increase later in the day and overnight as a broad trough begins to move through the eastern half of the United States.
The lower troposphere has warmed a few degrees from this time 24 hours ago, as evident on aircraft soundings, and a negatively tilted ridge is in place across the region. Thursday, the ridge axis will shift to western NM with more of a southerly to south-southwesterly synoptic flow prevailing over the area. Temperatures will cool as a trough progresses into the western CONUS this weekend. WPC cluster analysis is still in favor of a lower amplitude trough, with around 20-30% of the solutions suggesting a deeper trough, mostly dominated by GEFS members. So with the lower amplitude solution favored, temperatures are unlikely to cool too drastically.
At the upper levels, models currently show broad troughing over the eastern CONUS as upper ridging builds over the west coast and over the Rockies by Thursday. Given this low level shift, expect clouds to clear up this evening and winds to lighten up. Unfortunately this will also make for another cold evening with lows tonight near freezing throughout the forecast area. With the return to high pressure, dry conditions are also expected for the remainder of the work week. Southwest flow at the lower levels will help warm the region back up to near normal with highs in the mid 60s Thursday and Friday. The period should start off dry for Friday with mid-level ridging advecting eastward into the CWA. However, that ridge loses some of its intensity as energy digs through the Pacific NW and into the central/northern Rockies.
First half of the weekend will be watching rainfall potential, especially across western/southern portions of the forecast area, as a cutoff upper low slowly digs southeastward through the northern Rockies.
A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening, and there is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to affect parts of northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
330 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Upper ridging is centered over Arizona and New Mexico, and a broad upper trough is over the eastern half of the country. The upper ridge becomes centered over Texas on Friday with temperatures warming up a little from the previous day.
1242 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 High pressure builds overnight and through Thursday. The high will slide east Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain nearly steady in the mid-40s for most, however cooler and drier air is approaching the Connecticut River Valley at this hour. Lows will end up just a couple to a few degrees cooler than now by pre-dawn. Steady rain has broken our into showers with low pressure sitting east of Cape Cod. One last band of rain and drizzle will move across the forecast area this evening as a short wave trough moves through.
248 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains with a few clouds and chilly temperatures. For today into Friday, upper level ridge shifts into the plains with low level temperatures peaking Friday afternoon. Upper trough digging through the Pacific Northwest sends initial impulse into the western Dakotas Friday night.
1043 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 A ripple in the upper level flow was spinning into western MN early this afternoon, and coupled with some warm air advection in the low levels, was spawning an area of showers across southwest MN. Upper level trough over the great lakes will slowly make its way east over the weekend, with upper level ridging then edging in from the west for the start of the new work week.
An associated weak surface front will also move southeast and approach the lower OH River Valley by early this afternoon. Though surface dew points are only expected to make it up to near 50 or the lower 50s ahead of the front, enough marginal instability (SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) and moisture should be available for shower/thunderstorm development ahead of the front during the heat of the day.
156 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend with another chance of rain tonight with a crossing cold front. Building high pressure will keep the region dry today but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
Look for light and variable winds tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s. /Tonight through Thursday Night/ The short-term forecast will begin quietly for the Ark-La-Tex as a ridge axis approaches from the north and winds continue to slacken.
kinematics will be aided by an impulse descending an upper ridge over the western US potentially leading to a few stronger storms. the next upper wave will dig into the western ridge leading to lee troughing and return flow of moisture over the Southern Plains.
A weak cold front will briefly shift winds from the northeast or east 10-12Z before resuming back from the southeast around 18-21Z. /issued 157 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ Fairly quiet weather will continue the next couple days before a somewhat more active pattern brings storm chances and more cold fronts to the region. A broad upper trough positioned over the eastern half of the CONUS will shift east as ridging builds in from the west. Upper ridging builds back overhead Friday as strong southeast winds shove moisture back west into the higher terrain. An embedded disturbance will move east within the ridge helping to spark a few storms across far west Texas Friday afternoon.
Tonight Through Friday A broad upper trough is across the eastern two thirds of the U. with an upper ridge over the west coast. The trough will deepen over the southeast Thursday and the ridge moves to the Rockies Friday. A cold front in the Plains will move southeast toward Arkansas tonight and into northwest Arkansas Thursday morning. High pressure moves in behind the front and dry weather is expected Thursday night and Friday. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s, and upper 60s to upper 70s Friday.
VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites during the TAF period as area of high pressure remains in place over SE Texas.
Water vapor satellite shows the next upstream short wave trough was near Lake Winnipeg early this morning. An area of low pressure is expected to form today over northern Minnesota with a weak trailing cold front taking shape to the west of the low. These two features then look to track southeast in conjunction with the short wave trough overnight. High pressure gradually builds in Friday, which should bring a return to quiet conditions.
328 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 A weak cold front will dip south into the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front and tapering off overnight. With modest wind shear in place, a few stronger storms with damaging wind gusts cannot be completely ruled out, with the highest probabilities over Levy County and over the extreme interior reaches of the forecast area as storms push east during the afternoon. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs this afternoon in the low 90s over interior southwest Florida, but increased cloud cover will limit temperatures over the northern half of the area. Temperatures will be relatively cooler, with highs topping out from the low 80s to around 90.
Southeast winds will shift northerly with the cold front passage. Looking at the current 500mb RAP analysis, the ridge is positioned over the West Coast with with a disturbance present over the Rockies and already helping to kick off storms in eastern Colorado along a surface cold front. However, the midlevel disturbance will kick across the Panhandles later this evening along with the cold front passage, which will provide additional lifting and cooling to any weak capping inversion in place right above the surface across the northern Panhandles. Temperatures are warming into the low to mid 70s today with breezy south southwest winds. The surface front is not bringing with it a ton of cooler air, so temperatures are not expected to be colder than last night with lows still in the 40s to lower 50s.
/22/ A relatively straight forward forecast tonight with drier and cooler conditions than normal expected. Temperatures are cooling as forecast so far tonight and the previous forecast package looks on track into the morning hours with just a few clouds around and lows falling into the lower and middle 50s F. Northerly flow is dominant on the weather map across the forecast area on the east side of the ridge. This cooler and drier air has filtered into the region slowly eroding the northern edge of the morning stratus.
Showers should begin to develop and expand in coverage after sunrise as a cold front across southeastern GA slides southward. Cold front will be located to the north of the forecast area through this evening, as an upper wave moves northeast across SE GA. Precipitation chances should end by midnight Thursday evening, as high pressure builds in from the west northwest.
152 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 High pressure builds overnight and through Thursday. The high will slide east Thursday night into Friday.
120 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northwest Ontario with a broad trough through the central CONUS. Otherwise, even with partly to mostly sunny skies, with the cool airmass in place temps have struggled through the 40s north and into the lower 50s south. Thursday, with steep sfc-700 mb lapse rates similar today, scattered/isolated showers should develop with daytime heating close to Lake Michigan where the low level convergence is strongest.
Temperatures aloft will be a couple degrees warmer than they were yesterday as a ridge of high pressure will slowly start to build in from northern Mexico. Given the slightly warmer airmass, high temperatures this afternoon should be about 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday, or generally in the low to mid 80s. Again, with the slightly warmer airmass, low temperatures should be about 5 degrees higher than this morning.
A cold front is stretched across the region this morning and will sink southward through the day. Instability is on the lower side today and while thunderstorms will be possible, severe storms are not expected. An upper level trough axis will swing through the southeast tonight with mid to upper level winds becoming more WNW. High pressure will begin to build in at the surface tonight with dry conditions returning to the forecast.
448 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 The cold front has finally pushed south of the area and cool Northwesterly flow has set up.
Expect a line of showers and storms to develop along a cold front pushing into the region Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this trough, we're looking at a cool night with light winds and clear skies. Tomorrow morning will be pleasant with the relatively dry air and light winds in place with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today's. The cold front attendant to this system will move across the area late tomorrow, resulting in another dry day Friday with sub-normal temperatures across the Mid-South. The flow aloft will be from the northwest with a ridge over the central CONUS.
High pressure will bring above average temperatures Thursday.
Area of high pressure along the surface will remain in place across SE Texas today while a mid to upper level ridge builds overhead through Friday. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s for most of the region except the northernmost counties, where lows will likely stay in the upper 50s.
Precip chances will diminish after 00z as the trough axis moves eastward & large scale subsidence works into the region. Upper-level ridging is likely to dominate for Thursday and Friday.
242 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The well-advertised ridge of high pressure will amplify overhead across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. Even with a few high clouds filtering underneath the ridge this afternoon, strong warm air advection will result in a significant warming trend with high temperatures jumping some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early May. Friday morning will see the ridge weaken and slide east of the Continental Divide as the next upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. However, as forecast soundings remain dry in the lower levels, little to no precipitation is expected. High temperatures will continue to run hot for this time of year with some of the lower valleys climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s Friday afternoon.
Light to moderate east-northeast winds will keep highs in the lower 80s near the coast to the mid 90s across the Brush Country. Lows in the low to mid 60s are expected over South Texas tonight. Ridging aloft continues to build into the area through Friday, keeping skies mostly clear and dry conditions intact. Highs will be near the same of today, from the lower 80s near the coast to the mid 90s across the Brush Country.
that will taper off Friday night with a few wet snowflakes mixing in across the higher terrain. Behind a cold front and within weak cold air advection aloft clouds are slowly thinning from the northwest this morning. A pool of cold air aloft will keep early Spring chill across our region today with highs in the low to mid 50s. Though only a few degrees warmer than yesterday, the warm sunshine will make the day feel more tolerable than yesterday. The rain showers will be slow to push eastward as the upper level trough sharpens tonight, with rain remaining west of the Genesee Valley through daybreak. A sharp mid-level trough axis extending from a closed low across James Bay will very slowly move from west to east across the area Friday and Friday night.
358 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend with another chance of rain tonight with a crossing cold front. Building high pressure will keep the region dry today but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
845 PM PDT Wed May 5 2021 A trough moving inland over California will bring stronger onshore flow and cooler weather into the weekend. Expect some fog, locally dense as well, especially along the higher coastal terrain and well inland. A low pressure system will move inland over the Pacific Northwest Thursday through the weekend. This will increase onshore flow and spread cooler marine air inland.
High pressure ridging today will bring a brief taste of summer with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lowers 80s for the valleys of western Montana, approaching 90F in the lower elevations of north-central Idaho. Shower coverage will increase overnight into Friday morning along and behind a cold front but precipitation amounts will remain on the lighter side.
344 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today.
Quite a pleasant warming trend on tap as a ridge aloft moves over western Wyoming with dry northwest flow aloft over our counties. Mostly clear and not as cool with the ridge axis aloft moving over Wyoming. The warming trend continues as the ridge axis aloft moves over the Wyoming and Nebraska state line.
/issued 949 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ Wx map shows weak high pressure continuing to ridge across the region, with diminishing northeast winds, calm across areas north of I-10. Otherwise, dry and cool weather will prevail, with temperatures THU morning in the mid/upper 50s across interior SE TX and Central LA to the lower/mid 60s I-10 to the coast.
Nebraska lies in northwest flow aloft with the amplified upper ridge running up the Rockies and a deep upper low over Hudson Bay with the trough extending into the Southeast US. At the surface, high pressure settles right on top of the state before sliding toward the Ozarks. For max temps, went between the middle and warmer end of guidance to account for weak WAA, downslope flow, and bouts of sunshine. The stronger forcing, both at the surface with the lows and cold front and aloft with the trough, is also delayed. In response, blended in some warmer guidance, which takes the forecast pretty close to the 50%ile NBM.
Apart from fire weather concerns in the short term, there exists a very low end possibility for shower/thunderstorm activity along the frontal boundary pushing southeast with the trough. All in all no impact rain, and this is the highest probability across the CWA.
This will bring cooler and unsettled conditions to the region through the weekend.
422 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Today and tonight: Continued cooler than normal and mostly dry through the period. This cold front was expected to be dry but model consensus suggests a few light showers may develop along it and move into our northern most zones before dissipating early this evening. With northwest flow aloft tonight and a >1024mb high building into the region from the northwest in the wake of the cold front, temperatures are expected to bottom out colder than normal in the upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s elsewhere. As for today, under partly sunny skies and a lighter north wind, temperatures are expected to top out several degrees warmer than yesterday but, fall short of seasonal norms.
530 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
Somewhat cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front, allowing min temps to fall back into the mid 60s most of the area which is very close to seasonal norms for early May.
406 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021 An upper level longwave trough remains in place over the eastern half of the CONUS this morning. At the surface, a cold front moved into northeastern KS overnight and is expected to progress southeastward through the forecast area by about 12Z (7 AM) today. High pressure will move southeast into Arkansas tonight as lee cyclogenesis commences east of the Colorado Rockies.
504 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend with another chance of rain tonight with a crossing cold front. Building high pressure will keep the region dry today but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
A trough will bring unsettled weather to the silver state for the next couple of days. Today will be warm but cooler conditions will start on Friday. A trough is moving onshore today and will then slowly drift eastward across NV over the next few days. Today will be warm with the highs in the 80s across NV, with a few spots approaching near record territory. Temperatures are looking to be a bit cooler with highs in the 60s to 70s.
Temperatures are rebounding well into the 50s at many places now, and afternoon highs in the lower to middle 70s easily look attainable. Drier and cooler air will advect into the Tennessee Valley tonight behind the departing cold front. High pressure will be centered to the west across Arkansas with northerly to northwesterly winds forecast overnight.
As the mid/upper level trough pushes into the Pacific northwest this morning, the dry frontal boundary will sweep inland across the Bay Area and Central Coast later in the day.
/22/ Today and tonight: Continued cooler than normal and mostly dry through the period. This cold front was expected to be dry but model consensus suggests a few light showers may develop along it and move into our northern most zones before dissipating early this evening. With northwest flow aloft tonight and a >1024mb high building into the region from the northwest in the wake of the cold front, temperatures are expected to bottom out colder than normal in the upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s elsewhere. As for today, under partly sunny skies and a lighter north wind, temperatures are expected to top out several degrees warmer than yesterday but, fall short of seasonal norms.
303 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Ridging builds in today and this will lead to a warmer and drier day for the entire area. The ridge axis will slide east tonight and allow for increasing clouds from west to east. Ridge axis shifts into eastern Montana Friday, with strengthening southwest flow over the western zones. A thermal ridge will provide highs in the 70s Friday afternoon. A cold front will approach the west Friday afternoon and a jet max swinging out ahead of an advancing mid level trough, will ignite some convection over the western half of the area. The highest capes look to be over central zones, which will be separated from the strongest dynamics. High PoPs look good for Friday night with the highest PoPs over northwest zones.