Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
for the overnight, with the RGV remaining on the backside of the flat upper ridge in the eastern Gulf and south of a weak but mentionable upper low, southeast flow will continue with diurnal dropoff from east to west. The question then becomes, will there be mentionable convection near any Valley terminals? The bet here is no, based on slightly lower mean relatively humidity above the inversion (despite the 2" precipitable water level) and the backbuilding of the 500 mb ridge (rising heights) which was not the case today. TX still lies in a weakness within the broader ridge across the southern tier of the U. 500-mb subtropical ridge tries to push into the area from the east on Saturday. 0 inch range Saturday, and instability looks stronger than today, so bumped afternoon pops into the high-end isolated/low-end scattered percentages across the area.
High pressure continues to cover most of the eastern U. Temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Weak low level ridging is in place over the eastern states and local surface observations show winds have already begun to calm. Minimum temperatures will dip to the low to mid 70s.
1058 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Late evening surface analysis depicts high pressure (1019 millibars) blanketing the southeastern states. troughing is progressing off the New England coast, leaving behind zonal flow over our region. High pressure will remain situated over the southeastern states through Saturday, maintaining an overall east-southeast wind regime.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday as a cold front approaches. Late night, slight to chance pop numbers were maintained for the interaction of that boundary and the advancing trough, as well as the potential outflow penetration as the shower/storm complex invades New York early on Saturday. Either way, any surface-based convection will wane with loss of daytime heating, with subsequent showers and storms being dependant on cold front passage, with timing in model-dispute as mentioned above.
Then look for highs on Saturday to be a little cooler than today, mainly due to increased clouds and chance of showers. A more significant upper level low pressure trough along the coast of California on Sun, will move over Utah on Mon and across western Colorado Mon night. The resulting southerly flow ahead of the trough will keep good moisture over the area with precipitable water values at 0. The air mass will begin to dry on Tue as high pressure builds over the west. Convection will see a downturn with storms mostly confined to the higher terrain Tue afternoon. In addition, a cold front will drop down from northeastern UT and move south tomorrow night, allowing for some showers to linger overnight along the Divide. Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high elevation snowpack.
928 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Light westerly winds will persist overnight as weak surface ridging continues to slowly build into the area. Behind this activity, a clearing sky was noted as surface ridging builds into the forecast area.
A large upper trough across the Pacific Northwest continues to drive diffluent southwest flow aloft across Montana.
701 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure south of the area will bring unseasonably warm conditions across the region to begin the weekend.
The high pressure ridge is well off to the east, and a warm front well to the north at the IL/WI border. Temps only dropping into the low 70s/near 70 in most of Central Illinois.
A series of weather disturbances will bring cooler.
Ridge of high pressure remains across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 95 71 94 / 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 93 68 91 / 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 91 64 88 / 0 10 10 20.
With high moisture content remaining, lows look to only fall into the low to mid 70s across the area. Weak high pressure will settle in over the waters into the weekend with generally light winds.
(Issued 547 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016) For 00Z TAFs: Weak high pressure across the region will provide for vfr conditions for both KMSL and KHSV thru the fcst period. (Issued 547 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016) (Issued 240 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016) A large area of high pressure remains in place over the eastern U. This will also keep lows lower than guidance suggest in the lower to mid 60s.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southeastern United States tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an anticyclone will be located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
502 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Flat upper ridge over the central CONUS is building over the CWA as wave pushes through MN. Upper low continues to spin over the Pacific Northwest. Most models are now showing the low farther north on Saturday, while the Canadian is the outlier. However, a strong to severe storm or two may sneak into northwestern SD, especially if the low takes a more southerly track.
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead.
A weak mid/upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico will remain nearly stationary and weaken slightly through tonight. ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the coast to the lower 90s inland. with the warmer temps at the coast.
Flow aloft will veer to the northwest on Wednesday while a weak cold front drops south across the area early in the morning hours.
Broad area of weak high pressure will bring light winds and few clouds today, as it slowly edges eastward across the region today and tonight.
High pressure will remain in control over Iowa and a fair part of the Upper Midwest into Wednesday. The high should shift East over night and western portions of the forecast area may see winds switch to a more Southerly direction but speeds will be light.
The broad mid and upper level low centered across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will elongate westward today, with another spoke of energy wrapping into portions of South Texas. Tonight and Wednesday the low opens with the main energy pivoting into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
323 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures through the week. Clear and dry conditions will continue across central California today as a strong ridge of high pressure remains in control. The ridge currently centered over the four corners region will drift West to over Southern Nevada by midweek. High temperatures will remain several degrees above normal with widespread triple digit heat in the lower elevations, but are not expected to reach record levels. Some afternoon cumulus will likely develop over the Sierra Wednesday with possibly an isolated thunderstorm over the high elevations by late in the afternoon.
Weak onshore flow today will give cooler temperatures to the area.
404 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Temps for most in the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches. Today: Strong and persistent deep layered ridging will continue across the forecast area. Tonight: Quiet weather will persist as mid level ridging and the surface synoptic pattern remain stagnant. Strong mid/upper level ridging directly over the area will continue into the second half of the workweek. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure dominates locally with troughing well inland.
Temperatures throughout the 7 day forecast will remain near normal for the time of year, much cooler than in recent days.
Today the upper level ridge wl become centered ovr the Great Basin and wl remain in that location thru tonight.
Amplifying northwesterly flow aloft is expected as the upper high retrogrades over the west and an upper trough begins to deepen over the Mississippi Valley region. Timing of a short wave trough aloft moving through the increasingly northwest flow is favorable for late afternoon and evening timing of thunderstorm enhancement along the warm frontal boundary as it lifts northeast across the area.
337 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A cold front moves through most of the region by late Tuesday, before dissipating Tuesday night. Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening. Have generally south to north POP gradient, with the highest POPs across southern CWA gradually decreasing to the north.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The H5 inverted trough over the Gulf of Mexico will continue advancing westward through the day before getting generally washed out somewhere over the northern TX or LA Gulf coast. however high pressure will quickly return to shut off the tap.
This morning, will keep the highest rain chances 30-40% over southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Locally heavy rainfall of a few inches and small scale flooding are possible with this activity, which may weaken throughout the morning as the low level jet weakens. Kept the highest rain chances 40-50% east of a Wichita Falls to Ponca City line where highest precipitable water values are forecast, generally 1. Preferred the lower model guidance numbers which keeps highs below 90 degrees in parts of central and northern Oklahoma.
141 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A weakening cold front will move south of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night where it will become stationary. High pressure will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming trend through mid-week with triple digit temperatures across portions of the interior. The upper level ridge continues to build over the region this morning. The marine layer will likely continue to compress as high pressure strengthens.
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east today and Wednesday and bring dry and warm weather to the region.
302 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Hot and dry conditions with light winds are expected under strong high pressure this week.
247 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Models indicate shift in ridge axis to south, which will allow some short wave energy in westerly flow aloft to north to affect northern sections of the area beginning in the afternoon, along with some increase in mid and upper level moisture. Weather pattern remains the same into the weekend with surface trof just west of the coastal plain and the Bermuda high offshore.
216 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A cold front moves through most of the region by late Tuesday, before dissipating Tuesday night. Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening.
442 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A drier, less humid airmass will persist today as high pressure builds into the region.
340 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure centered over IA was providing mostly clear skies and light winds across the region early this morning with temperatures in the mid and upper 60s. Persistence will be the rule as high pressure slowly migrates east over the region today and tonight under a subsident W-NW flow aloft.
Temperatures were also warmer aloft and what storms did form were not as strong as the past couple of days. High pressure over the region will keep southeast/south winds in place over the waters through the next several days, with winds becoming onshore near the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon.
306 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 It will be another warm and humid day across the Northland, with highs in the lower 80s, despite a subtle cold front which will slowly move through the Northland today and tonight as high pressure in Canada noses into the Northern Plains and northern Minnesota. Wednesday looks a little cooler and cloudier, with highs in the middle to upper 70s. Cool easterly flow will develop from Lake Superior, and the diffuse cold front will likely shift south of the forecast area, or near the far southern forecast area. Northwest flow aloft will help push the frontal boundary further south Wednesday night as high pressure over Manitoba/northwest Ontario pushes further south.
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A drier, less humid airmass will persist today as high pressure builds into the region.
120 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Quiet but warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
305 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 While and upper low spins over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, dry air has engulfed the Keys area this morning. Deep layer high pressure is anchored across Florida and the Southeastern United States aiding to subdue showers and thunderstorms across the Keys. The high pressure will continue to keep slight rain chances today.
Upper wave crossing Ontario will push a cold front down into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Lower Michigan Wednesday.
The East-west oriented upper ridge continues to control the weather pattern across the southern CONUS. Through at least the end of the work week a ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature with diurnally driven convection each afternoon and evening. By the weekend a trough sets up over the Mississippi Valley. but the H5 ridge will keep it from pushing too far east.
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening. Temperatures will be quicker to drop across northern portions of the forecast area overnight as cooler and drier air begins to work into the region. Due to this heat index values will be lower as well with values in the middle to upper 80s across the north to the lower 90s across the south closer to the boundary.
308 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Central Alabama remains between two upper ridges, one centered near the 4 corners region and the other just off the Atlantic seaboard. The relative weakness between the ridges will allow for scattered convection during the afternoon/evening although we are close enough to the eastern ridge to limit convection in some of the eastern counties today and tomorrow. The Atlantic ridge slowly breaks down late week with the upper level trough shifting eastward and closer to the forecast area. This will give at least scattered convection with the highest POPs across the N/NW portions of Central Alabama, which will be closer to the approaching upper trough.
1211 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Aloft: Zonal flow was along the US-Can border with a weak trof over the Pac NW and subtropical highs over the Desert SW and Carolina's. The low-lvl jet will develop W of the fcst area tonight. and will be collocated with the moist tongue over the high plains. The approach of a strong trof and an 80-90 kts upr-lvl jet streak into Wrn Canada will nudge the Wrn USA ridge onto the Plains Sun with SW flow developing Mon with its passage. and this should force a warm front to develop across the Nrn/Cntrl Plains.
Another push of monsoonal moisture will impact the region during the upcoming weekend with thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures.
233 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will build in from the west today through tonight.
412 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An upper high over the Four Corners and Great Basin Region will maintain a more northerly or even northeasterly upper flow across the Panhandles through the latter half of the week.
Although temperatures will still be about 4-5 degrees above climatological averages, expect that increasing cloudiness with the approaching boundary to keep afternoon high temperatures a few degrees cooler than we have seen in the last several days. High pressure ridge over the Southeast the last several days is expected to shift east into the Atlantic by Wednesday.
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week.
635 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will track from the Central Great Lakes to the Eastern Great Lakes today, bringing abundant sunshine, and summer's heat in the 80s.
241 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east today and Wednesday and bring dry and warm weather to the region.
As this occurs, the warm, moist, and unstable south winds will become northeast into Wednesday and Wednesday night as Canadian high pressure pushes in drier and less humid air. Tuesday looks like another very warm/hot day with highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. The upper level long wave pattern will feature low pressure over the Hudson Bay Region and high pressure over the southwest CONUS.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday night: A moist and unstable air mass ahead of a weak cold front slowly sagging southeastward from the Northern Plains should set the stage for periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
658 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure and dry air will sustain light winds through the TAF period. Upper wave crossing Ontario will push a cold front down into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Lower Michigan Wednesday.
136 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A cold front moves through the region overnight.
151 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s expected. High pressure ridge dominates the SE US through mid week with no airmass exchange for the next several days. At this time it appears most of the energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and Sun.
Highs in the lower 90s, high humidity, and a prevailing SE wind near 10 mph.
Still tough to rule at isolated to low end scattered storms just about anywhere, though weak steering currents suggest activity may stay close to the higher terrain, with little convection east of I-25.
427 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An upper level weakness in the ridge located over the north- central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to drift toward and over the Texas coast today. Drier air caught up in the circulation around the low over Mississippi, Alabama, and the Tennessee Valley was endeavoring to work its way into the far eastern portions of Texas. The Nam12, Gfs, and Ecmwf all forecast the highest moisture moving inland and north throughout the day on Wednesday. After Wednesday, a model consensus then has a general weakness in the upper level ridge overhead of Southeast Texas through the end of the week. However, the models slowly dry out the airmass as the lower-level ridge builds across the Gulf into the area.
Zonal westerly flow with a flat upper level ridge will continue over the region today through Wednesday.
333 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Upper level ridge centered off the southeast coast, with ridge axis stretching across the region, will shift slightly to the southeast today.
106 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Aviation High pressure will continue to build into the Great Lakes region and produce fair weather through Tuesday. A cold front moving in from the north will bring a small chance of a shower or storm late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Another low pressure system will bring a chance of showers and storms late in the week. Short term fcst concerns are fairly minimal as high pressure continues to build in to produce fair weather tonight through Tuesday evening. A backdoor cold frontal boundary moving in from the north will bring a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm very late Tuesday night across our northern fcst area.
Synoptic setup: a large high pressure heat dome continue to be stationed over the western half of the conus with its center positioned over Nevada.
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Models indicate shift in ridge axis to south, which will allow some short wave energy in westerly flow aloft to north to affect northern sections of the area beginning in the afternoon, along with some increase in mid and upper level moisture. Weather pattern remains the same into the weekend with surface trof just west of the coastal plain and the Bermuda high offshore.
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A cold front will move across the area this evening and end the showers. High pressure over the Midwest will build east over our region Tuesday and last through Wednesday.
However, temps will still run near seasonal normals, and dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s, only slightly less oppressive than the mid-70s dewpoints of the last couple days.
Convection will likely initiate over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon of both days before moving generally eastward over the nearby plains and valleys.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain on the low side across the East Coast Metro Areas through the middle of the week as a SAL layer will continue to move westward across South Florida. High temperatures through the middle of the week will also remain in the low to mid 90s as plenty of sunshine is expected.
Deeper moisture is located just south of the area in association with a weak trough, and models indicate that this airmass will move northward overnight. Wednesday, deep layer ridging will begin to build back into the area as the Bermuda High backs into the area once again.
1106 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Then an upper ridge moves over the region, with warmer and drier weather expected for the weekend.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: A cold front is progged to continue sagging southward through the area Wednesday before stalling to the south of the U. , in closer proximity to the slowing cold front, will have the better chances due to increased forcing.
248 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Strong upper low/frontal system with a severe weather threat this evening and tonight over the western zones. High pressure for the weekend. Southern stream upper low to merge with weaker northern stream trough dropping in from the Upper Midwest over Illinois and Indiana, effectively strengthening the surface frontal system as it pushes eastward through the Ohio Valley. Tight 850mb dewpoint gradient spreads northward through the day with the stronger low level wind, but overall moisture depth will take some time to materialize beyond the leading edge of the higher dewpoints. The cold front will end up driving the bulk of this activity, but not necessarily all of it.
Everyone in southern Indiana & central KY should pay special attention to the weather today and be alert for any watches/warnings issued! ===================== Gusty Winds Thursday ===================== Very gusty WNW winds are expected on Thursday in the wake of this strong low pressure system. Light Snow and Freezing Temperatures Return. While elevated winds will prevent frost formation and freezing temperatures on Fri morning, winds will be lighter under high pressure Sat morning which may allow temperatures to drop to or below the freezing mark. A strong low pressure system will approach from the west today bringing showers and storms to the region this afternoon and evening.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Wrapped up low located over Oklahoma will quickly moving east- northeast into southern Missouri this evening placing the forecast area on the backside side of the low by Wednesday morning. The best QG forcing and deep moisture remains confined to the southeast portions of the forecast area through 18z Wednesday before the low moves east of the state during the afternoon hours. However, a weak ribbon of vorticity max rides the 500mb flow behind the upper low and looks to bring some low chances of showers across northern Iowa late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today. The front will lift north of the area tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Also, there may be a prolonged period of thunderstorms along the warm front this afternoon into the evening resulting in excessive rainfall.