Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
405 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A slow moving cold front will provide scattered showers and storms tonight and Monday. Cooler and drier air will settle by midweek, with an extended stretch of below normal temperatures and dry weather conditions expected for most of the upcoming week. Midlevel energy ahead of the main trof axis will be working its work its way through the region Monday. Temperatures will be much cooler, only reaching the mid to upper 70s. A few storms could be lingering in the southeastern counties early Monday night, but high pressure building in from the Great Plains, will quickly push them out of the region while also bringing clearing skies.
This will spark additional storm development in the vicinity of the cold front which is currently located in northern Kansas, and will continue sinking south this evening. Sunday night, will see the transition to drier and cooler weather for the work week as the upper level wave moves out of the area and the cold front shifts south. To start the week, the area will remain in northwest flow as high pressure begins to build back into the area.
The hot ridge of high pressure has already begun to build extensively through the western US states and up through the Rocky Mountain range. This ridge will persist over the next three days and allow daily high temperatures to soar well into the 90s with nary a cloud in sight.
Southwest flow aloft will bring warmer air into the region leading to slightly above normal afternoon temperatures.
1132 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 The 00Z H500 hand analysis map showed the subtrop high suppressed to our South over New Mexico with a fairly bland upper pattern over the lower half of the CONUS. As expected this time of year the storm track is in the high latitudes but changes are coming here. Both of these areas will dip southward through Monday and allow the for an amplification of the ridge back along the Rockies. Low level moisture does look to push West behind the front as is settles over the lower portion of the divide.
The mid to upper level ridge from Texas into New Mexico will gradually shift to the west, more over the southern Rockies near the Four Corners region Monday. This will allow the weak inverted mid level trough axis over the northwest Gulf of Mexico off the upper Texas coast to move into south Texas on Monday. The high temperatures on Monday will be close to normal with higher moisture/clouds in place.
South of a Nevada to Bolivar to Willow Springs line, dew points are in the lower to even middle 70s. Much better chances for storms will spread southeast across the area later tonight as a much welcome cold front approaches.
Around the Monday night time frame, a high amplitude trough, especially for this time of year, will begin to dig into the southeast. This will deform the Atlantic ridge, pushing the ridge axis southward over our area.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the middle 60s along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington line to the lower 70s south of I-70. Highs on Monday will be considerably cooler than in recent days.
110 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 In the immediate short term/predawn hours, the surface cold front had pushed south of our cwa and was oriented from southwest to northeast KS as of 07Z. Cooler air with temps in the 60s were advecting south behind the boundary from northern Neb. Daytime temps will be quite a bit cooler than recent days in the post frontal airmass with readings ultimately dependent upon clouds and how long precip lingers. Aftn highs in the low/mid 70s should be common across south central Neb with some 80s possible in north central KS. The dry, cooler airmass remains across our region for the first part of the week (Mon/Tues) in between a western upper ridge over the Rockies and an eastern trough from Quebec through the Ohio valley.
Second, the 500mb height field for later today has the ridge axis shifted well west of the region and the 1000-500 mb thickness ridge south of the area. With temperatures a bit cooler, heat indices are now expected to be in the 95 to 100 degree range. With the upper pattern shifting and the heart of the ridge moving westward, the coming work week looks much cooler with a much less humid air mass settling over the region. The highest chances for storms will be from KMCI and south later this afternoon into the evening. The highest uncertainty is with the first round of storms before sunset with more confidence on the round of storms after sunset.
233 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 (Tonight through Monday Night) A cold front was moving into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
351 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A cold front will move south across the area tonight and Monday, and will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and less humid conditions will then prevail behind the front for much of the upcoming week.
Cb convective cirrus blow off will block enough late afternoon sun to keep many in the lower 90s.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region today, allowing for very warm temperatures to return to the Northern Rockies.
Ample cloud cover has kept temperatures cooler than previously forecast, so the hourly temperatures have been adjusted to reflect observations.
MVFR conditions are expected behind a cold front that is expected to move through eastern Oklahoma late this evening into Monday. This raises some uncertainty in high temps compared to recent days, otherwise much of NE OK will be within the thermal axis ahead of the advancing cold front this afternoon supportive of triple digit highs in a few locations. Cold front on track to pass through the forecast area tonight through mid day Monday.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure that was previously bottled up over the Desert Southwest is quickly making its way north through Nevada and into the Pacific Northwest where it is flowing into a ridge situated over British Columbia and Alberta. With the exiting trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley this is quickly forcing northwest flow with a warm frontal influence over northeast Montana. Farther west, A large closed low resides over the the Gulf of Alaska. Today: Warm front marching across the area this morning will bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms through Noon.
The areas with the lowest flash flood guidance is NW Missouri and the KC Metro area which will both likely get 1-2" of rainfall with possible 3+" if multiple storms can move over the same area. High pressure will move into the area bringing late April like weather through the rest of the week with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 50s! There may be an hour or two of MVFR ceilings over western Missouri and eastern Kansas, but they are expected to rise into VFR conditions within the next hour. The highest chances for storms will be from KMCI and south later this afternoon into the evening. The highest uncertainty is with the first round of storms before sunset with more confidence on the round of storms after sunset.
Otherwise, still expecting further destabilization into the afternoon which will favor sct convection, perhaps numerous across the higher terrain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 73 85 70 / 50 30 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 73 83 68 / 40 40 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 85 72 82 67 / 50 40 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 70 81 65 / 40 40 80 70.
1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A cold front sits just south of the forecast area early this morning, stretching from southern Iowa into northern Illinois. With more sunshine in store today, the northern half of the forecast area will be a tad warmer than yesterday, while the southern half (now behind the cold front) will be a tad cooler. Upper level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS while upper troughing becomes more established over the east.
A very amplified mid/upper pattern will commence Tue, with initial northerly flow aloft gradually slackening as the western CONUS trof expands eastward throughout the week. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots will prevail into the evening, but are expected to possibly shift to the north over parts of southern IL as a cold front nudges into the region. This will be the time of the highest probability of pcpn.
Will open the period with an upper ridge upstream and an eastern CONUS trough.
343 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A weak cold front will move south across the area this evening as low pressure along the boundary shifts east across central and southern Ohio to the mid Atlantic States by Monday afternoon. A much cooler and less humid air mass will move into the region for much of the week as high pressure gradually builds into and across the Ohio Valley. A diffuse/weak frontal/lake breeze boundary located from the south shore of Lake Erie to low pressure in central Indiana will help focus convective development over the next several hours as the low progresses eastward. Cooler less humid air will gradually filter into the region Monday and Monday night.
235 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A welcome return to more seasonable summer weather today as Canadian high pressure continues to slide into the region. Skies will clear out and winds will diminish overnight with high pressure overhead so some areas of fog are expected by tomorrow morning, but drier dewpoints advecting in overnight should keep it limited to low-lying areas. Expect plenty of sunshine and light winds on Monday as the high becomes centered over the upper Midwest.
Ridge building in and 700mb temperatures pushing over +12c Monday should cap convection over the lower elevations.
The overall synoptic pattern shows a high-amplitude upper-level ridge building across the Intermountain West states, along with a large area of high pressure, which is progged to be centered over the MN/ND/SD border Monday.
333 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 An effective frontal boundary has moved into Oklahoma, with cooler and more humid conditions over western Kansas this afternoon.
Along and south of I-40, temperatures are a bit cooler, thanks in part to several thunderstorm outflows. "False Fall" will make a grand appearance this week, behind a rare and progressive cold front that will move through during the day on Monday.
1102 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 An upper-level ridge will prevail today and begin to weaken Monday.
233 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Cold front has moved well to our south into central MO but with considerable cloud cover the instability is rather minimal and shear is weak. An upper trough will be pushing across the area and this has been producing showers in sw IA much of the day. Lows should drop into the lower to mid 60s. Monday: Delightful summer weather with a northwest flow established and high pressure builds into the cwa from the Dakotas.
1148 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Update/Aviation - Potential for narrow area of heavy rain today - Fair and much cooler weather this week A wave on our front that is now south of the state of Michigan will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the I-94 corridor this afternoon. Elsewhere skies should be partly cloudy and highs will be only in the lower 80s. Area of showers and thunderstorms currently across the central zones will gradually shift south this morning as sfc wave tracks along the cold front across the Ohio Valley.
Cooler Weather Ahead. With a cold front moving into northwest Oklahoma, we may see some scattered storms form along this boundary this evening and overnight. The cold front will surge south overnight, bringing below normal temperatures to the area. With the ridge pushed off to the four corners region, expect these cooler temperatures to hang on a while with some gradual warming toward the end of the week.
137 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 An upper-level ridge will prevail today and begin to weaken Monday.
213 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A cold front will cross the area today and stall across the Gulf of Maine Monday.
353 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Current surface analysis places high pressure over the southern Canadian prairies with low over the midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from the central Rockies northward towards the Alberta/Saskatchewan border. On Monday, ridge to the west strengthens which should keep us with quiet weather and near to a bit below average temperatures.
Winds will be much lighter as a cold front moves south and approach KABI by 18Z.
The subtropical ridge continues its slow drift to the west, but continues to dominate over South Central Texas. With the upper ridge continuing to drift to the west, there looks to be a better chance for convection to reach our southeastern counties from the Gulf. Monday night a cold front will approach our CWA from the north.
Attention will then turn to a cold front moving across the northern terminals after midnight.
The areas with the lowest flash flood guidance is NW Missouri and the KC Metro area which will both likely get 1-2" of rainfall with possible 3+" if multiple storms can move over the same area. High pressure will move into the area bringing late April like weather through the rest of the week with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 50s! Will be watching as a complex of thunderstorms move east into the Kansas-Missouri state line terminals overnight.
A seasonable weather pattern for the upcoming work week as high pressure builds over the region.
A very amplified mid/upper pattern will commence Tue, with initial northerly flow aloft gradually slackening as the western CONUS trof expands eastward throughout the week.
This is out ahead of a pre-frontal trough that should break into our northern counties around 4-5 am. A line of showers and thunderstorms should accompany the pre-frontal trough, but by mid-morning, as these lose their steam, the actual front should catch up.
High pressure will amplify over the Desert Southwest on Monday, centered near the Four Corners. However, some subtropical moisture will still trickle into the region underneath the ridge, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southern and central Colorado mountains during the afternoon and evening hours. Precipitable water will be on the rise as we near midweek as the high shifts into a slightly more favorable position and as a midlevel disturbance progresses across the Intermountain West.
A warming trend will continue with widespread triple digit heat expected across the lower elevations through the week. A weak short wave trough is evident on water vapor imagery as it tracks northward just off the coast. But we are now coming under the influence of a ~595 DM upper high centered over Arizona. This strong dome of high pressure is increasing temperatures across the district as 24 hour trends show temperatures running a few degrees warmer. The upper high will be the dominant weather feature through the upcoming week. Models shift the center of the high over the Four Corners region on Monday then amplify it over the Rockies.
802 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Only adjustment to the forecast this evening was to lower low temperatures 5 to 7 degrees to trend closer to the cooler nighttime lows associated with the clear skies and dry airmass still in place.
The overall pattern will be a cool one for this time of year with an upper ridge centered over the desert southwest leading to northwest flow aloft for our area with a less sticky airmass and cooler surface temperatures.
802 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Latest RAP model shows broad Atlantic high pressure stretching west across most of the Gulf of Mexico through Mon. A high pressure ridge axis across central FL and westward over the Gulf sinks down into far south FL by Tue and resides there through the week - a southeast flow pattern with afternoon sea breezes shifts to a southwest pattern.
Cold front has moved well to our south into central MO but with considerable cloud cover the instability is rather minimal and shear is weak. An upper trough will be pushing across the area and this has been producing showers in sw IA much of the day. Lows should drop into the lower to mid 60s. Monday: Delightful summer weather with a northwest flow established and high pressure builds into the cwa from the Dakotas.
836 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Main change was lowering daytime RH values since model guidance has a tendency to run high (more humid) underneath ridges here, such as what will be setting up tomorrow. The hot ridge of high pressure has already begun to build extensively through the western US states and up through the Rocky Mountain range. This ridge will persist over the next three days and allow daily high temperatures to soar well into the 90s with nary a cloud in sight.
823 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Aviation - Cooler (by 10 degrees) this week compared last week - Marine hazards Southern Near Shore Monday PM - Isolated inland thunderstorms Tue PM - Next more widespread convection Sunday 28th /Monday 29th As we have been saying the longwave trough which was over the western CONUS but more so in western Canada will reposition itself due to a deepening system in the Gulf of Alaska early this week but gets recharged by a much more significant system from eastern Russia by the middle of this coming week. That forces a large scale western ridge and allows a closed upper low, currently near the North Pole to head south to Hudson Bay by late in the week.
1042 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Currently - Surface ridging extends across the Florida Peninsula, while the lower level ridge is a bit further north into the southeastern United States. Winds are generally light out of the east with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather overnight, resulting in light mainly easterly breezes across the Keys. There is an inverted trough aligned over the central and eastern Bahamas. A ridge axis to our north will maintain gentle east to southeast breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
629 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 The approach and passage of a cold front will bring rain throughout the day Monday. Drier cooler weather can be expected for the remainder of the week. Scattered and discontinuous convection continues along a very slow moving and diffuse cold front stretching from approximately Coshocton OH eastward towards Pittsburgh and into Westmoreland County PA. Convective activity should initially wane a bit overnight as the lower atmosphere stabilizes, though a few scattered showers are still possible in close proximity to the frontal boundary. At this time, the cold front will be stalled, bisecting the CWA.
RAP40 analysis shows a broad Bermuda Ridge axis draped over central FL. Upstream moisture is on the low side with H100-H70 RH values btwn 70-75pct, H85-H50 avg dewpoint depressions arnd 10C. With the low/mid lyr flow AOB 10KT, modest low lvl moisture, and diminishing mid/upr lvl support, coastal shra chances are too low to mention. Atlc ridge axis extending from Cape Canaveral to Ft.
The door to monsoon moisture will begin to open tomorrow as high pressure shifts toward the Four Corners.
Upper level flow around the periphery of the ridge will be weak to moderate with several small embedded disturbances. This shower and storm activity will keep things cooler thanks to the seasonably high moisture and the low level cloud cover. The high pressure center over the west coast and 4 corners region will be nearly stationary through the remainder of this week. This will allow continued influence from disturbances rotating around the ridge through mid week.
427 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 As expected, the area is in between two more obvious systems this afternoon - a trough across ND and a convective wave scooting across northern MO. Overall, the shearing of the feature and loss of any diurnal support should dwindle coverage by early to mid evening, with quiet weather to follow as cooler and drier high pressure sinks toward the area. Amplified ridge west/trough east pattern keeps area under influence of the low-level ridging into midweek, meaning continued dry and a bit more enhanced diurnal range, mainly upper 70s to mid 80s for highs and mid 50s to around 60 for lows.
/issued 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019/ Upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon. The eastern portion of the ridge extending across TX will recede as a trough strengthens over the Eastern portion of the country the next couple of days. A cold front is set to blow into the area Monday and drop temps below normal for the rest of the coming work week.
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 As expected, the area is in between two more obvious systems this afternoon - a trough across ND and a convective wave scooting across northern MO. Overall, the shearing of the feature and loss of any diurnal support should dwindle coverage by early to mid evening, with quiet weather to follow as cooler and drier high pressure sinks toward the area. Amplified ridge west/trough east pattern keeps area under influence of the low-level ridging into midweek, meaning continued dry and a bit more enhanced diurnal range, mainly upper 70s to mid 80s for highs and mid 50s to around 60 for lows.
727 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 An upper-level ridge will begin to weaken Monday.
CAMs visibility output is currently favoring the Missouri River Valley and surrounding areas, which is where the center of the high is forecast to be during peak radiational cooling. Also trended low temperatures more toward the cooler end of guidance for tonight. Current surface analysis places high pressure over the southern Canadian prairies with low over the midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from the central Rockies northward towards the Alberta/Saskatchewan border. On Monday, ridge to the west strengthens which should keep us with quiet weather and near to a bit below average temperatures.
Current temp trends have fallen mainly into the upper 70s/lower 80s, and given a similar air mass with the past few mornings, lows again look to fall into the lower 70s for most spots. A deeper trough and associated surface front will push SE towards the TN Valley on Monday.
Some lighter rain does trail the low to the north and northwest but this will be exiting through late afternoon as well. An upper trough will be moving across the area tonight but the best moisture will be shunted south of the forecast area. A cooler night is in store with lows in the low to mid 60s. Large high pressure will be spreading across the upper midwest and northern Plains on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the far south in the morning. Along with cooler high temps in the mid/upper 70s.
Ongoing few/scattered mid and high clouds are expected to become scattered/broken low and mid clouds late this evening and overnight from north to south as a cold front moves into the CWA. /Issued 351 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019/ A cold front will move south across the area tonight and Monday, and will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and less humid conditions will then prevail behind the front for much of the upcoming week.
An effective frontal boundary has moved into Oklahoma, with cooler and more humid conditions over western Kansas this afternoon.
658 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 An upper-level ridge will begin to weaken Monday.
A high pressure ridge axis across central FL and westward over the Gulf sinks down into far south FL by Tue and resides there through the week.
639 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A welcome return to more seasonable summer weather today as Canadian high pressure continues to slide into the region. Skies will clear out and winds will diminish overnight with high pressure overhead so some areas of fog are expected by tomorrow morning, but drier dewpoints advecting in overnight should keep it limited to low-lying areas. Expect plenty of sunshine and light winds on Monday as the high becomes centered over the upper Midwest.
338 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 H5 ridge continues building northward during the next 36 hours, capping off most of the atmosphere across Wyoming. Kept best rain chances across the Absarokas, which are farther away from the core of the midlevel ridge.