Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A weak and somewhat rare June cold front works south through the CWA this morning, stalling south of the border through Thursday. There remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms along the front this morning, although confidence in coverage is low to moderate, especially toward the lower RGV where a large cap was observed in the latest sounding.
936 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front has pushed through the Mid-South this morning. However, sunny skies that are currently occurring this morning will be short-lived as an upper trof that is over Southwest Missouri/Northwest Arkansas will be moving eastward this afternoon. Clouds associated with the trof will be moving into Eastern Arkansas by noon time. The storms formed ahead of a cold front which is now moving across central Arkansas. Cooler and much drier air will move into the region behind the front today. High pressure will build across the entire region tonight starting a period of dry weather with below normal temperatures.
/issued 233 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ An upper ridge of high pressure will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next seven days. The exception will be Thursday when there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms across portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains as an upper level disturbance rotate around the periphery of the ridge.
Quiet night precip wise, but surface winds remain strong ahead of the approaching cold front. Chances for showers and storms will increase later this morning as the Plains trough moves northeast towards the Great Lakes, and the cold front tracks across the region. With dewpoints in the 50s, and highs in the low to mid 80s, its going to feel quite pleasant for what we are used to in the mid state during the summer.
Dry today and Thursday with temperatures continuing to trend warmer. Most valley locations will warm up into the low to mid 80s today, then upper 80s or low 90s on Thursday.
1020 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Cold front moves through the area this afternoon with severe thunderstorms likely. Cooler conditions in place for the end of the week and into the weekend. Low amplitude mid level trough at the beginning of the period will amplify heading into the weekend, eventually resulting in a closed low developing. Once that occurs, the low will meander through the remainder of the forecast period. ECMWF continues to be further west with the low. Based on this persistence, have trended highs a bit cooler, lows a bit warmer, with more clouds and slightly higher PoPs than latest NBM output.
Central AR wl see SCT-BKN clouds thru the day as well on the SRN edge of the higher moisture.
527 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 500mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed a strong low pressure system moving into eastern Kansas early this morning. Northwest flow developed aloft while a ridge amplified along the west coast. Today, the aforementioned low pressure system drifts further east towards the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with upper ridging nudging into the Plains. On Thursday, the ridge continues to build towards the region and be the dominating feature.
400 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Warmer, breezy, and mostly dry today, although a few showers will be possible along the Divide and over the higher terrain of Central and Southwest Montana.
623 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front continues to slowly move through the region this morning. Northwest winds will diminish near sunset, becoming light and variable as high pressure settles over the region. /Today through Thursday/ A cold front continues to push through the region this morning, with the boundary located along a line from Lufkin, TX. A noticeable change in the airmass today, as gusty WNW winds will bring in cooler and less humid conditions in wake of the frontal boundary along with mostly sunny skies. Lows overnight into Thursday morning will also be much cooler than the past couple of days, with temps in the low 60s areawide. Ridging aloft will drive the weather, or lack there of, for the foreseeable future.
A warming trend with dry weather will continue across the region, as high pressure aloft strengthens over the interior west through the end of the week.
614 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Split upper trof over the central CONUS will continue to slide east today as upper ridging moves into the Pacific northwest. Warmer air aloft will provide for warmer temperatures on Thursday, along with much lower chances for any afternoon instability showers.
Split upper trof over the central CONUS will continue to slide east today as upper ridging moves into the Pacific northwest. Warmer air aloft will provide for warmer temperatures on Thursday, along with much lower chances for any afternoon instability showers.
The cooler weather we're currently experiencing will continue on Fri with a high in place that will translate to a cold start followed by high temps only in the upper 60s to near 70. Upper ridge will move over the Northern Plains by late weekend followed by the SW flow that will be a harbinger of the more active weather to follow.
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front will support scattered thunderstorms this evening. Dry weather will return Thursday under building high pressure, with temperature returning to near average through the end of the week. An isolated storm cannot completely ruled out (primarily along the ridges) but widespread thunderstorm development should hold off until the cold front approaches and crosses the region this evening. Effective shear and instability will increase as the associated negatively tilted trough tracks east this afternoon and evening and a line of storms capable of producing damaging wind is anticipated this evening as the aforementioned cold front crosses. Dry conditions return on Thursday with building high pressure behind the front.
Still quite humid today, with dew points up in the low to mid 70s, however relief in the way of a cold front is currently just to our west on satellite and approaching the state line. Once the front moves through, we will see humidity significantly drop, though temperatures won't likely drop until the cooler air mass arrives a couple hours later. Right now that cooler air mass is just crossing the Mississippi River into Tennessee and Mississippi. Post front, we may see some of the low clouds over northern Arkansas shift over our area tonight, but not sure how well that cloud shield is going to hold together. Cooler and drier air moves into the area post frontal system.
Afternoon highs Thursday will warm quickly within the dry air from 85 to 90 degrees in the East, to the lower to middle 90s in the West.
1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Northeast to east winds were a bit breezy this morning but are expected to diminish this evening and tonight, becoming light and variable as high pressure builds in. As the high shifts east Thursday morning, winds will gradually increase once again to 5-10 knots from 050-070 at the I-35 sites and 110-140 degrees at DRT PREV DISCUSSION. As the upper level trough that is responsible for dragging the front across Texas swings into the Great Lakes Region through the day today, producing the first Moderate Risk since 2013 for Detroit, high pressure will build in across South Texas. The ridge will be centered over the state by Thursday. With light easterly winds keeping moisture at bay behind today's front mornings should be pleasant in the 60s with afternoon highs near normal in the lower 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday night): Vsbl satl imagery and KBRO reflectivity indicates isold/sct conv firing along and south of the cold front sliding through the RGV area this afternoon. The ECMWF and NAM are a little warmer for temps through the short term versus the GFS. Considering that daytime heating will likely be pretty strong tomorrow for the afternoon highs, will likely lean towards the warmer side of guidance for temps.
Pre frontal trough is indicated by ohx radar and stretches from Celina through Cookeville at this time. The main cold front is just west of the TN river.
High pressure with dry weather will settle in tomorrow, leading to a stretch of pleasant weather across the region. Slightly cooler temperatures are still sitting on the western state line, which will continue eastward across the state overnight. Much cooler temperatures will move in tonight compared to the past couple of evenings, with lows in the upper 50s.
1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Still quite humid today, with dew points up in the low to mid 70s, however relief in the way of a cold front is currently just to our west on satellite and approaching the state line. Once the front moves through, we will see humidity significantly drop, though temperatures won't likely drop until the cooler air mass arrives a couple hours later. Right now that cooler air mass is just crossing the Mississippi River into Tennessee and Mississippi. Post front, we may see some of the low clouds over northern Arkansas shift over our area tonight, but not sure how well that cloud shield is going to hold together. Cooler and drier air moves into the area post frontal system.
Drier air is filtering into the region as a upper level ridge shifts into the region. We should drop down into the mid 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast. Tomorrow will warm back up into the low to mid 90s but without much moisture around, elevated heat indices don't look to be an issue.
It's possible that a few raindrops reach the surface this afternoon over the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge from weak showers that develop. Broad high pressure aloft will build over the Great Basin with a resulting moderate northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Temperatures will be warmer today with warm advection pattern and resultant readings about 5-10 degrees higher than yesterday. Still, some northwest winds up to 20kt with decent mixing in the low levels.
147 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Current surface analysis place low over southern Ontario and ridge over the northern Rockies, resulting in breezy northwesterly winds over our area. Upper level analysis places trough along the Manitoba/Ontario border resulting in modest cyclonic flow over North Dakota. On Thursday, aforementioned trough scoots off to the east with ridge strengthening to the west. This will also result in warmer temperatures, with highs climbing to a bit above average.
Slightly warmer low level temperatures begin to push into the region Thursday, so should see temperatures pretty close to normal in the upper 70s-lower 80s.
Some orographic convective towers have built up over the higher terrain, however the only notable development of these have been in the eastern Uinta range. Still, extremely dry soundings in the low and mid levels indicate that any convection should likely only produce virga today in this range. Another dry day is in the works for Thursday as a ridge of high pressure continues to build over the southwestern CONUS. Expect another night of clear and mainly calm weather on Thursday night as the ridge continues to build over the Four Corners.
One final lobe will swing around the upper low over the Great Lakes late tonight, bringing another band of clouds, but that will be the extent of the sensible wx.
1056 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Expect warmer temperatures for the rest of the work week.
Sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s are expected for Thursday. Forecast remains dry through the next Wednesday as upper ridging moves further into the area. As a low pressure system continues to move away from the area, resulting in improving flight categories and diminishing winds into this evening.
1105 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Currently - Ridge axis extending from a Bermuda High, sits across the FL Peninsula to our north. Ridging aloft remains present and is providing subsidence and dry air aloft as indicated by this morning's 12Z RAOB sounding. With deep layer ridging aloft any showers this morning and into the early afternoon will struggle to maintain themselves for too long. This evening a weak upper level trough will pivot through, lending some ascent in addition to the moisture.
a consistent lack of weather (due to a ridge of high pressure in the Central U.
/issued 507 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ (Today and Tonight) After a brief unseasonable cold front's interruption of this summer's heat yesterday, conditions will be more typical today.
Cooler, drier air moves in this evening as well, which will help drop temperatures to around 60 by Thursday morning. High pressure builds over the Southeast on Thursday, with weak northerly flow continuing to advect milder, drier air into the Tennessee Valley.
Gusty northwesterly winds of 20 to 30KT will remain possible through mid afternoon and then should start to weaken late afternoon/early evening across the CWA as an upper level trof axis exits the region. At mid morning a low pressure system. continued its northeastward trek with the associated upper level trof axis pushing across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper level trof axis will move through and exit the CWA as the low pressure system lifts towards the Great Lakes region. continued cooler/drier conditions are forecast to continue with highs in the lower 80s in Southeast Oklahoma to the mid 70s for far Northwest Arkansas and lower humidity levels across the CWA. have added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/wind/sky grids based on latest timing/movement of the exiting upper level trof.
211 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Cold front moves through the area this afternoon with severe thunderstorms likely. Cooler conditions in place for the end of the week and into the weekend. Low amplitude mid level trough at the beginning of the period will amplify heading into the weekend, eventually resulting in a closed low developing. Once that occurs, the low will meander through the remainder of the forecast period. ECMWF continues to be further west with the low. Based on this persistence, have trended highs a bit cooler, lows a bit warmer, with more clouds and slightly higher PoPs than latest NBM output.
Temperatures are mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the lower elevations. broad upper level ridging will continue to move across Colorado through Thursday. Given the upper level ridging moving overhead, dry conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon. A few areas over the San Luis Valley will drop into the mid 30s, with a few locations possibly seeing near freezing conditions.
211 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 In the short term, a high pressure ridge will be the predominant feature over northeast Montana.
346 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Scattered light rain showers remain possible until early this evening north of I-72 as an upper level low continues to affect the area.
Northwest flow ahead of a building ridge of high pressure has led to persistent showers and clouds across western Montana and central Idaho. High pressure will strengthen over the area this evening, which will lead to a gradual decrease in coverage and allow for some clearing skies.
Forecast confidence is high Band of rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to pull to the east as an upper level closed low propagates east across southern Lake Michigan. 19z RAP analysis shows some instability of 1000-1500 J/kg still in southeast Wisconsin to work on, but this will diminish over the next few hours as the cold front pushes through from the west. 0-6km effective wind shear is also decreasing as the better mid level winds push east ahead of the mid level trough.
A cold front approaches Thursday before stalling across the area for a few days. The Bermuda Ridge will build a little westward tonight as a front and dampening mid level trough move eastward.
Pre frontal trough is indicated by ohx radar and stretches from Celina through Cookeville at this time. The main cold front is just west of the TN river. A cold front will push moisture east this afternoon and evening.
210 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A return to near seasonal temperatures this afternoon as departed low pressure system digs into the central midwest as an overall ridging pattern sets up across the region.
A warming trend begins tomorrow with the upper ridge beginning to re-establish itself over the area, with highs approaching the lower to mid 90s under sunny skies.
129 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east as a NE PAC upper trough slowly advects east. This will support continued deep layer ridging over the area and a warming trend through the end of the work week.
High pressure builds in from the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday, bringing cooler and drier air.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.
Highs today should climb slowly up into the lower 90s.
159 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A persistent upper ridge will maintain a quiescent weather pattern across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas the next seven days.
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The cold front near the MS River will push into north GA this evening as a deep trough develops over the Great Lakes. BDL The cold front is expected to clear the area Thursday night before stalling along the atlantic coast. High pressure will build in the plains, reinforcing the ridge over the area through the weekend and keeping precip chances confined to the southeast.
435 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough through the central CONUS. Additional sct diurnal -shra from northeast Mn into nw WI were associated with mid level fgen ahead of the mid level trough axis. The pcpn should move out of the east overnight as cooler air prevails over the area with lows in the mid to upper 40s. This pattern will favor much cooler and comfortable temperatures compared to the near- record heat we've experiences as of late.
A northwesterly flow across the West Central High Plains earlier this Wednesday afternoon will become more westerly overnight and Thursday as an upper level ridge moves into the Central and Northern Rockies.
1156 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 500mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed a strong low pressure system moving into eastern Kansas early this morning. Northwest flow developed aloft while a ridge amplified along the west coast. Today, the aforementioned low pressure system drifts further east towards the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with upper ridging nudging into the Plains. On Thursday, the ridge continues to build towards the region and be the dominating feature.
Per SPC Sounding Climatology, these are some of the lowest 500-mb heights on record for mid-June for southwest Missouri. With high pressure settling in above fairly saturated soils, some very patchy fog cannot be ruled out tonight beneath clear skies. Highs will range from the mid 70s across eastern KS, to mid 60s for locations east of HWY 65 where the cold core of that 5640m closed low will be more near. As a low pressure system continues to move away from the area, resulting in improving flight categories and diminishing winds into this evening.
At mid morning a low pressure system. continued its northeastward trek with the associated upper level trof axis pushing across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper level trof axis will move through and exit the CWA as the low pressure system lifts towards the Great Lakes region. continued cooler/drier conditions are forecast to continue with highs in the lower 80s in Southeast Oklahoma to the mid 70s for far Northwest Arkansas and lower humidity levels across the CWA. have added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/wind/sky grids based on latest timing/movement of the exiting upper level trof.
The only other thing worth mentioning about the forecast through this evening is that winds will occasionally gust up to 30 mph especially along the Cheyenne Ridge and over higher terrain. A mid to upper level ridge will strengthen over the Desert Southwest tomorrow with light flow over Colorado. Subsidence from this ridge will keep conditions dry with the exception of a stray shower or two over South Park and the southern Front Range Foothills. Upper level ridge over the intermountain west will intensify as it slowly shifts eastward.
Showers will become more numerous late tonight into Thursday morning with a passing cold front.
250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 (Tonight and Thursday) After the record cold this morning, a warmer afternoon with temperatures already in the mid to upper 80s. Returning south winds tonight will keep readings up in the low to mid 60s for most locations. The building upper level ridge has a bigger effect on Thursday afternoon temperatures with highs in the mid 90s.
For the next 36 hours, high pressure will take over and clear, calm, dry conditions are expected to persist. Although it was still a bit breezy this morning with a few gusts in the 25-30 mph range, NE to E winds will gradually diminish through this evening and tonight, then increase again to 5-10 knots and shift to ENE (most of the area) and SE (mainly Rio Grande) in the anticyclonic flow at the base of the ridge during the day Thursday.
High pressure ridge over the region will allow temperatures to continue to climb through tomorrow.
Isold/Sct slow moving conv is starting to fire across the RGV this afternoon as the cold front pushes southwards into the region. /issued 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A weak and somewhat rare June cold front works south through the CWA this morning, stalling south of the border through Thursday. There remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms along the front this morning, although confidence in coverage is low to moderate, especially toward the lower RGV where a large cap was observed in the latest sounding.
Southwest flow today will bring warmer temperatures to the region. Expect initiation across the higher terrain of Baker county.
258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Clouds associated with an upper trof are continuing to spread into the Mid-South at this time. Highs will be in the lower 80s with low humidity. An upper level trof will begin to dig over the Ohio Valley as an upper ridge builds over the Southern Plains.
211 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Upper troughing over the northern plains will contribute to a few instability showers this afternoon/evening. Winds become more westerly on Thursday as an upper ridge begins to shift east out of the intermountain west. The drier airmass and good daytime mixing will mean a sharp drop off in temperatures tonight but warmer highs on Thursday, especially across the west.
BT Upper level ridge axis sets up over Pacific NW for today, and shifts slowly eastward through Thursday. Ridge axis does not appear to move over the region until Thursday evening.
High pressure will continue to build into the region overnight into Thursday. This will result in mostly clear skies tonight and pleasantly cooler conditions as lows fall into the low and middle 60s. Dry conditions look to prevail through the period as high pressure remains in control across the region.
/issued 936 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ A cold front has pushed through the Mid-South this morning. However, sunny skies that are currently occurring this morning will be short-lived as an upper trof that is over Southwest Missouri/Northwest Arkansas will be moving eastward this afternoon. Clouds associated with the trof will be moving into Eastern Arkansas by noon time. The storms formed ahead of a cold front which is now moving across central Arkansas. Cooler and much drier air will move into the region behind the front today. High pressure will build across the entire region tonight starting a period of dry weather with below normal temperatures.
335 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The low level ridge currently sitting over the FL Peninsula is beginning to break down in response to an inverted trough moving in from the east. This in combination with the aforementioned inverted trough is triggering showers and thunderstorms, most notably over the Bahamas currently.