Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mostly clear skies will be seen through the short term, as an upper level ridge of high pressure gradually shifts from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Given the drier air in place and mostly clear skies, have favored a wider diurnal range, staying on the cooler side of guidance for the lows, while going warmer for the highs. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be in the 20s, with highs on Saturday in the low 50s for most locations.
Today a broad area of high pressure is building across the Upper Great Lakes.
Dampened omega block pattern exists over the CONUS this afternoon with troughs on both east and west coasts with a H5 analyzed ridge extending from Texas northward to the Dakotas.
Icy roads will be a concern tomorrow morning, in areas that get any precipitation and drop below freezing.
Models are often a little fast with progression of the low clouds on the first night of return flow, so backed the timing back a bit, but left it mainly as is for now.
532 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 Besides a few high clouds, a ridge of high pressure was providing the area with mostly sunny skies while temperatures as of 1 pm were in the upper 30s to the upper 40s. Mid level ridge amplifies over the region through Saturday in warm air advection ahead of a deepening low moving out of the Rockies.
Temperatures overnight should be warmer than those last night due to the shift to southerly winds and some resulting increase in low level moisture. Highs tomorrow will be even warmer than today's, with values approaching 70 degrees across parts of northeast Oklahoma, which will lead to minimum humidities in the 30 to 40 percent range in most of the area despite some increase in low level moisture.
Clear skies and cooler conditions are expected tonight, with temperatures falling into the 40s for the first time since early February.
Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal. Tonight and tomorrow: Large area of low pressure with a number of synoptic and smaller scale disturbances embedded and rotating around in it will continue to influence Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho through this time interval. The general trend is towards decreasing shower activity with a drier and warmer forecast for tomorrow.
/issued 405 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018/ A cold front pushing through the region over the next 12 hours will be mainly dry though some showers could develop near the Atlantic later this evening. Otherwise, drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in.
A cold front over South Florida will pass through the Florida Keys overnight.
541 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 Upper level ridging will dominate the weather tonight and Saturday ahead of a deep long wave trough digging south along the west coast. Have went with the lower guidance for lows due to the light winds and fairly dry air in place. The exception will be across far eastern portions of north central Nebraska around O'Neill and Ewing where south winds will stay up a bit and lows will be in the lower 30s. This will turn winds to the southeast across the area, with warmer air working northwest into the region. Latest ECMWF run continues on track with northern trajectory and latest GFS has closed low moving further north.
1019 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Definitely not much to talk about tonight as high pressure settles directly overhead. Narrow ridge of high pressure extends from far northern Ontario, across western Superior, WI and IL. This ridge will slowly creep eastward into northern MI thru Saturday. Building 500mb ridging (ahead of troffing pushing into the Great Basin) will help support a deeply dry airmass. Max temps Saturday in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Rather benign weather continues into the second half of the weekend as ridging lingers over the Upper Great Lakes both at the surface and aloft.
Noticeably Cooler Tonight. A strongly subsident air mass on the western periphery of the large and deepening cyclone east of the mid-Atlantic states continues to advect very dry air down the peninsula, especially above the surface. While it will feel considerably cooler tonight, min temps will be near to just below our seasonal norms from the upper 40s to the low 50s (a bit warmer along the immediate Treasure Coast).
There will be more snow melt with temperatures warming into the upper 30s to the lower 40s by late afternoon.
611 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Aviation A dry and sunny weekend is in store for West Michigan thanks to high pressure overhead.
Pressure gradient has increased this afternoon as low pressure deepens along the front range of the Rockies. Upper level low was located in the Pacific Northwest moving off the eastern Pacific this afternoon. That said expect dewpoint temperatures to rise back into the lower 40s later tonight across north central Kansas spreading a bit eastward on Saturday. The lower boundary layer will remain mixed tonight and as a result temperatures will only cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s. As low pressure moves out into the western High Plains the pressure gradient will increase once again with winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon. Highs on Saturday are expected to reach the low to upper 60s.
As the coastal trough moves slowly inland during the morning hours, rain chances will move farther inland. Made some adjustments to show current trend that is expected to continue through the overnight hours as coastal trough moves toward the coast. Rain chances will increase overnight into early Saturday morning as a coastal trough swings by.
530 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 00Z TAFS VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with high pressure centered north of the area. /issued 342 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018/ Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows low amplitude ridging over the southern plains building eastward over the area. At the sfc, a ridge of high pres extends south from the upper MS valley to the northwest Gulf.
640 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Dry weather is expected through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure settles across the area.
An upper low over the region will shift inland and weaken through the weekend.
700 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic Coast tonight will move farther offshore through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley tonight will move eastward.
Weak low-level gradients suggest mixing-driven winds, so will keep the High Wind Warning going through sunset when we should see a significant decline in speeds. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through Saturday with upper-level ridging in place. Widespread 60s are likely across the high plains of southeast Wyoming and the western NE Panhandle.
High pressure is building in for a quiet and dry night. The northerly winds will continue to pull in cooler air. most locations will drop below freezing tonight as lows fall into the 20s to low 30s. Only other concern is the high river levels due to recent rains. Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 59 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 49 23 53 / 0 0 0 0.
Shallow low level moisture, as evidenced by the current afternoon cumulus field, will continue to slowly lift northward in response to strengthening low pressure across northeast Colorado.
1002 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Although it's not an ideal night for significant ridge/valley temperatures differences to occur, winds have died down enough for some modest differences to begin setting up. Mostly clear skies will be seen through the short term, as an upper level ridge of high pressure gradually shifts from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Given the drier air in place and mostly clear skies, have favored a wider diurnal range, staying on the cooler side of guidance for the lows, while going warmer for the highs. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be in the 20s, with highs on Saturday in the low 50s for most locations.
A large upper level low was moving onshore toward the area.
Narrow ridge of high pressure extends from far northern Ontario, across western Superior, WI and IL. This ridge will slowly creep eastward into northern MI thru Saturday. Building 500mb ridging (ahead of troffing pushing into the Great Basin) will help support a deeply dry airmass. Max temps Saturday in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Rather benign weather continues into the second half of the weekend as ridging lingers over the Upper Great Lakes both at the surface and aloft.
A leeside sfc trof of low pressure will continue to deepen Saturday and will lead to a continuation of breezy to windy conditions.
820 PM MST Fri Mar 2 2018 A warming trend will continue today ahead of an approaching low pressure system. High temperatures will likely reach the mid 70s across the lower deserts, making it the warmest day in nearly two weeks.
539 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic Coast tonight will move farther offshore through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley tonight will move eastward.
Saturday will be warmer and windier than today, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
514 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
The warm advection will build the upper ridge over the Great Plains and toward the MS River Valley through the weekend.
429 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 Tonight and Saturday: High pressure will continue to bring rather pleasant, although somewhat cool, conditions to the "Arklamiss" region through the next 24 hours. High pressure at the surface still building south through the Lower MS Valley currently will only slowly transition east of the region through tomorrow, at long last bringing all areas two days in a row of fine weather.
The upper ridge will yield to increasing southwesterly flow aloft this weekend as the western storm system makes steady eastward progress. The stratus should yield to plenty of sunshine on the Caprock Saturday afternoon, but the low clouds may not relent until late in the day further east. From Lubbock south and west highs tomorrow should peak in the lower to middle 70s. The low clouds will fill back in over much/all of the FA Saturday night as relatively moist southerly flow persists.
509 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Ontario southward to the Gulf Coast will shift slowly eastward over the next 24 hours. As a result, am expecting afternoon highs just a few degrees warmer than today. generally topping out in the lower to middle 50s.
A cold front will stall across northern Utah this evening before retreating northward Saturday.
A low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will continue to provide colder, unstable air into this weekend.
748 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 The North Country will still experience some snow tonight from the strong low pressure system south of Cape Cod.
A similar story will likely unfold tomorrow as melting continues along the ridgeline. Significant boundary layer drying on Saturday, per regional forecast soundings, as 1035mb high pressure settles overhead. With relatively little change in the resident thermal profile, suspect nearly everyone will make a run toward the low 40s except for the Thumb which will be open to cold advection off the lake. Temps once again into the low to mid 20s Saturday night as the narrow ridge axis centers overhead. Potential for decent radiational cooling exists, but at this time it appears that the the rather short wavelength of the ridge axis and enhanced low pressure over Lake Huron will maintain a modest north or northeast gradient over the CWA.
721 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Building high pressure will ensure dry and seasonably cool conditions for the weekend. The eve update featured the loss of residual "slgt" POPs over the ridges. Otherwise, overall wind/wind gusts will continue to ease off tonight and into Saturday as high pressure moves toward the area, which in turn will veer the boundary layer wind northward and diminish the upslope component.
The cold front that pushed thru the area is now situated across southern Florida. Areas across northwest Georgia will see low temperatures overnight tonight flirt with freezing while locations across northeast Georgia are expected to drop below freezing. Also expect patchy frost across portions of north Georgia overnight where temperatures do approach freezing.
This evening expect lighter north to northeast winds with much cooler temperatures with readings near the freezing mark in our usually colder spots generally near and north of the U.
649 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic Coast tonight will move farther offshore through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley tonight will move eastward.
859 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley this evening resulting in clear skies and light winds occurring across the Mid-South. High pressure was centered over northern Illinois this afternoon which is responsible for the clear skies and near normal temperatures. Temperatures will cool off some tonight with some locations over eastern sections of the forecast area having lows at or slightly below freezing.
1011 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic Coast tonight will move farther offshore through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley tonight will move eastward.
701 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 Gradient winds between high pressure over Great Lakes, and intense offshore low, only gradually slacken through the weekend.
A cold front pushing through the region over the next 12 hours will be mainly dry though some showers could develop near the Atlantic later this evening. Otherwise, drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in.
712 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 The North Country will still experience some snow tonight from the strong low pressure system south of Cape Cod.
Aloft, broad ridging sits over the central CONUS while a potent longwave trough moves onshore the Pacific northwest. It is this trough that will be a main player in the next weather-making system for this region. In the meantime, partial clearing will take place tonight into tomorrow morning then clouds will increase as the day progresses tomorrow in advance of a weak developing warm front.
It will be a quiet TAF period with high pressure building in.
High pressure is now centered over central Illinois, and this slight shift east has already offered up a pronounced shift towards warm advection. So, we'll go on the mild side of guidance in Iowa and Missouri, and near cooler guidance in Illinois, where winds under 5 mph are possible tonight.
542 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 Upper lvl ridging over the region resulting in vfr skc thru most of the 04/00z fcst cycle.
858 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight. High pressure departing the Eastern Seaboard will allow for southwest flow, with a warm advection pattern continuing.
The pressure gradient between a low pressure system over southwestern Kansas and high pressure over the eastern United States has resulted in southerly winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with some gusts over 25 mph west of the I-35 corridor.
Upper level trough over the western US with upper level ridge off the west coast.
Warmer lows can be expected tonight with southerly surface winds along with higher surface dew points. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected on Thursday across central and southeast MO and southwest IL with more humid conditions as southerly winds continue. A cold front with attendant low in north central Kansas will very slowly approach the area from the west.
Storms expected to continue to persist until mid-evening, then models build upper level ridge into Nebraska, and that may suppress convection. Deterministic and ensembles all develop storms along lingering boundary and additional developing expected along psuedo warm front across northern NE.
916 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard later today setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday.
728 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard later today setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday.
High pressure along the coast of the mid Atlantic states will build east tonight through the end of the week.
1044 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will continue to build eastward and become nearly stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast, while a warm front passes well to the north.
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure over the region will move off the coast tonight. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer tonight especially across the CSRA but should see a range in lows from the lower 60s northern Midlands to upper 60s CSRA.
/issued 343 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ The majority of convection has remained offshore today aligned roughly along a weak trough extending across the northern and northwestern gulf coast. The aforementioned trough is progged to remain nearly stationary overnight before beginning to lift off to the northeast Thursday bringing the highest moisture with it. Thus, the highest precipitation chances will be across acadiana with POPs decreasing to the northwest.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will linger through Thursday as a cold front sweeps through the area.
The weekend will see continued dry weather but warmer temperatures.
Thursday the upper level ridge of high pressure off the coast will begin to move inland. Temperatures will be slightly warmer and winds will be lighter.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is digging southeast across the Northern Rockies. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado with an attendant frontal boundary extending northeast across western Kansas into southeast Nebraska.
1143 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard later today setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday.
but with dewpoints climbing into the 70s heat indices in the low to mid 90s will be felt.
Thursday morning will be clear with an short wave ridge aloft. Meanwhile, high pressure will be poised to head south and east out of southern Saskatchewan. This high will head down into the Upper Midwest on Sat providing the region with a dry and relatively cool start to July. the late weekend through midweek period will be characterized by a building ridge to the lee of the Rockies moving over the Northern Plains. The next chance for thunder would likely be on Wed, as the upper ridge begins to break down.
1032 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will slip east this evening, allowing a warmer and more humid airmass to work into the region.
The risk of tornadoes will also be present, mainly with any storms near the warm front lifting into the area.
A broad area of mid-level flow across the Rockies has helped form lee troughing/transient lee low in the High Plains.
The summertime pattern will allow for warmer temperatures in the 80s each day.
/issued 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ (Tonight through Thursday Night) Ridging will remain in place through the next 36 hours allowing for hot and dry conditions to persist. Low temperatures Thursday night should drop into the low to mid 70s in most areas.
However, the low clouds that are hanging around all day are not helping the instability situation and these storms may just be a large multi-cell cluster by the time they reach south central WI.
This convection will continue to move east through the evening as a upper level low moves across northern Montana.
The radiation inversion has mostly already mixed out with surface temperatures already in the lower 70's at 8 am. Overall high pressure will still be in control of the region today and tonight.
Overnight lows should be a bit cooler north of the front described in the previous paragraph, while near persistence lows are more likely to its south. Temperatures are indicated to be cooler, especially north of the stationary front where highs will be near normal. Understandably, overnight lows will be cooler, dipping by about 5 degrees at most locations relative to tonight's forecast lows.
The model consensus is in excellent agreement Thursday showing a portion of the upper low across Canada translating east and southeast through the Dakotas.
In general high pressure will strengthen slightly tonight into Thursday which should compress the marine layer and weaken onshore flow.
Maliawco Synopsis: The main upper low spinning over Alberta is sending a weak weather disturbance across the forecast area that is pushing into far eastern Montana late this afternoon and early evening with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from Scobey south through Crow Rock on our south at 250 pm. Along with the trough and cold frontal passage Thursday expected strong and gusty NW winds producing another Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake from late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Temperatures will also dip about 10 degrees Thursday with the trof and cold frontal passage.
A shallow cold front will continue to sag southward through southern Utah tonight.
Mesoscale models continue to blossom convection from central/eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin this afternoon where psuedo warm front exists along with slightly better moisture advection. While storms may not be as strong in western and north central Wisconsin as cold front approaches, there is a potential for brief tornado development.
1007 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 Dry conditions overnight will be short lived as a warm front approaches from the southwest bringing rain chances back to the forecast thursday.
Mid afternoon surface map has 998 mb low pressure over west central MN with its cold front extending through eastern NE and western KS. Breezy SSW winds have brought in higher dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and will rise into the upper 60s/lower 70s for Thu.
Upper high continued to be centered over far southern AZ with relatively strong upper troffing across the northern tier of states. The center of the subtropical ridge remains south of the region with large scale troughing pushing across the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin.
That may have to change if we get wraparound moisture from a low pressure center over SW Louisiana.
/issued 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday night): A seabreeze early this afternoon initiated another round of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal counties with locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Weak mid-level trough axis will continue to linger along the lower TX coast through much of the forecast period and moisture should be deep enough to keep slight to chance PoPs in the forecast for the eastern half of the area. and low pressure deepens over the Central Plains.
/issued 316 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ Upper level divergence within the ridge axis rotating slowly east across the area late today could yield still a few successful convective updrafts across the southwestern South Plains, with short term solutions maintaining limited activity yet in this area.
The highest coverage of storms is expected to be south of I-80.
THURSDAY: This will be a transitional day, as we lose the influence of the weak front currently across North Central Florida as high pressure begins to build in from the east.
719 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight. High pressure departing the Eastern Seaboard will allow for southwest flow, with a warm advection pattern continuing.
Dry and warm conditions continue through the upcoming weekend as a ridge of high pressure dominates the area. Another day of clear skies and warming temperatures as a ridge of high pressure shifts on to the West Coast. The cooling that resulted from a trof passage earlier this week will now transition back to warming as the West Coast ridge pattern rebounds.