Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will gradually build to the north of our waters this weekend.
918 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will drift slowly eastward across the central Great Lakes today. This high should shift to the New England States by Saturday night.
818 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Northeast flow in the low/mid-levels will continue to strengthen today, with wind speeds increasing to 10G18 knots for the Atlantic terminals by 14Z and remaining in this range thru end of the TAF period.
A deep upper level trough sits over the region today with its trough axis over Idaho. This places most of the forecast area on the dry and cool backside of the trough. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the Lower Columbia Basin only in the lower to mid 70s and an even cooler 50s and 60s in the higher elevations.
749 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. Following morning clouds and fog, expect a dry day as weak high pressure settles in under the persistent 500mb trough. This will result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
High pressure will be in charge today with a mostly clear sky and light winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 65 85 65 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 82 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 57 81 57 / 0 0 10 0.
Templer Previous discussion - An upper level trough/low will move slowly across Montana and the Canadian Prairies today, tonight, and Saturday. The upper trough moves through Eastern Montana during the day on Saturday keeping light rain going at times. However, rain chances will diminish somewhat in the afternoon as moisture and trough axis moves to the east. Temperatures will remain much cooler than normal. Synoptic Setup: long range begins with a series of progressive sub-synoptic troughs and ridges over the northwestern quarter of the CONUS and western half of Canada. The first trough resides over Saskatchewan and dips into northeast Montana and the Dakotas. The first ridge runs north from Washington into British COlumbia. The second trough lies over the Gulf of Alaska. Saturday Night: Trough will exit northeast Montana clearing light rains and mostly cloudy skies from southwest to northeast.
1219 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. This will result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
MVFR conditions at some of the lower lying TAF sites tonight such as LBX and CLL. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/ General upper level troughiness continued over Southeast Texas early this morning.
Windy and cool across the region today on the back side of upper trough.
The 500mb map tonight shows troughing across the western United States with a low pressure system over Southern California and the next trough entering the Pacific Northwest. In between across the Central Plains sits a ridge axis. This ridge is what is going to keep South Central Texas dry for the next two days. While the ridge keeps convection at bay in the mid- levels at the surface southerly flow continues to bring moisture into the area. Despite afternoon high temperatures only reaching into the lower 90s the humidity will make it feel like the mid to upper 90s during the late afternoon hours.
Rain, and mountain snow, will end from west to east Saturday with the passage of the upper-level trough.
729 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather with warm days and cool nights into the weekend.
At the surface, southerly winds prevail with low pressure to our north and a front to our northwest. As the western CONUS upper trough lifts out toward the upper Midwest this weekend, the frontal boundary to our northwest will eventually be forced down into northern OK/AR, possibly aided by convective outflow as well.
High pressure remains centered across Lower Michigan and the Eastern Great Lakes region early this morning. Expect this will happen a bit more quickly as compared to yesterday as southerly low level winds strengthen a bit ahead of developing low pressure extending from Lake Superior thru Southern Minnesota into the Central Plains. The rest of the day will be mainly sunny and unseasonably warm again as high pressure and dry air thru the column remain in control and upstream low pressure and associated moisture holds to our NW. Expect less fog development tonight given the expectation of stronger low level winds in response to further tightening of the low level pressure gradient.
1025 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure builds north of the region today into the weekend.
1049 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather through at least the weekend. High pressure and a rising height field will guarantee beautiful weather across the region this afternoon. The only possibly blemish is the low chc for a shower across parts of the Srn Tier. Fair weather can again be anticipated for tonight as high pressure will remain firmly entrenched across the region. Mins will range from 60 along the immediate lake shores to the lower 50s in some of the Srn Tier valleys. Our region will remain in a longwave upper level ridge throughout the period, supporting a generally dry pattern with above normal temperatures.
Weak high pressure will linger across the region Friday and persist through the weekend. An upper level low over the Ohio Valley, which is remnants of Irma, will move ENE, becoming increasingly sheared as it crosses the the central Appalachian this afternoon, before finally dissipating across the northern Mid-Atlantic States tonight. Remaining along the southern/southeastern fringes of the deeper moisture best upper trough dynamics, a threat of showers will continue through the afternoon/early evening, with warm temperatures aloft keeping shower chances rather isolated.
100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather with warm days and cool nights into the weekend.
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
1031 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure near 1040 mb just off the Mid Atlantic and southeast New England coast maintains a nearly 10 mb difference in mean sea level pressure between Jacksonville and Havana this evening.
With high pressure remaining anchored just off the mid Atlantic coast, sfc winds continued out of the SE near 10-15 MPH with higher gusts for much of the region. A few spots though were already near/at their forecasted low temps in the low 40s, and as such early morning lows for Sat have been adjusted slightly to account for these trends. Otherwise, mid/high clouds embedded within a swly flow pattern aloft continue to spread into the region, as a longwave trough axis digs further into the Plains states. Area radars are showing some light returns to the S/W of the mid TN Valley, but this activity should not work its way into the area until Sat, as a cold front approaches from the W.
632 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure to the east, with southwest flow ushering in milder air tonight and Saturday. A cold front crosses Saturday/Saturday night.
602 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front has moved through KGUY and KDHT and will move across KAMA early this evening with gusty north winds in its wake for several hours. Otherwise a cold front will move across the area tonight bringing a brief period of gusty north winds through evening before high pressure begins to settle into the area overnight. This will also lead to cooler conditions through the weekend.
433 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Axis of the upper trough has moved east of the forecast area this afternoon followed by mostly sunny skies over much of the area as high pressure builds into the region. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western Ontario with a trough extending southward across Minnesota, the arcing into eastern Nebraska. The surface pressure gradient between the low pressure to the east and high pressure over the western CONUS is producing windy conditions over most of the forecast area this afternoon. This weekend, the western upper ridge will amplify, steepening the northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
Winds will switch towards the northwest and north this evening and overnight as a cold front moves into the area.
836 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Upper trough has pushed through the state bringing snow to an end in the high country for the time being.
Shower activity should begin to increase by day break as a cold front pushes through the area. We did drop DRT down to 1/2 mile between 08-14Z as upslope flow will keep the low-levels saturated. We do expect a cold front to move through tomorrow morning and this should help visibilities to improve. Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge over the eastern half of the country and trough over the west with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, there was high pressure centered over the southeastern US and winds across our CWA were light from the south to southeast. There was a cold front stretched across New Mexico. The upper level trough over the west will move across the plains during the is period. This will bring the cold front through Texas.
545 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 A cold front has moved into western Minnesota this afternoon. There were stronger winds developing behind it, which will spread across Minnesota overnight, the main cold front, which will bring more Arctic air to the region, will arrive Saturday afternoon. The secondary cold front that is expected to move across central and southern Minnesota late Saturday afternoon, and evening, may have a few flurries associated with it.
304 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 There are still some light snow showers in the high mountains at this time. Will keep a tad of minor pops going in the high mountains both periods.
Scattered light showers are expected to develop this evening along and ahead of a cold front that is currently moving across ern MN and central IA. An area of light rain associated with warm advection ahead of an advancing cold front will continue to push northeast through the eastern half or so of the forecast area this afternoon, and should exit the region before dark. This rain and cloud cover have kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than initially expected, but many areas will still reach the mid 40s. That cold front will then sweep across the area tonight, with another chance for light rain along the frontal boundary. Despite the passage of the cold front, highs on Saturday should still reach the upper 30s to near 40.
318 PM PST Fri Jan 26 2018 Precipitation chances will retreat northward over the next several days as ridging over the eastern Pacific moves over NorCal. This moisture is associated with a mid latitude cyclone N of HI (along 160W) with its moisture streaming Ewd with the Pacific jet stream. This moisture is forecast to continue over Norcal through Sat morning, before lifting Nwd with the storm track as high pressure builds along the W Coast this weekend. Enhanced batch of cloudiness just off the Nrn CA coast is associated with a warm front and low pressure system that will move into the Pac NW on Sat.
Winds will weaken slightly after sunset, and then increase late tonight behind a cold front as they shift from the north. /issued 344 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ For tonight, a cold front (that is currently across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles) will continue to shift southeastward. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the cold front by mid-evening--especially along and east of I-44. After tonight, above-average temperatures are expected to continue into the upcoming weekend as the air mass behind this front will be originating off the High Plains.
Cancelled the High Wind Watch as the potential for high winds has ended.
Dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures can be expected over the district for the next several days as a ridge of high pressure off the southern California coast dominates the pattern. We can expect a repeat performance during the next couple of days as a high pressure ridge builds over the Golden State. This is a very resilient ridge and it will fight for dominance over California for much of the next two weeks. Unfortunately this ridge will effectively block storm systems and eliminate hopes for a return of any wet weather into the central California interior for at least another 7 days. This ridge is currently centered off the southern California coast.
A vigorous low pressure system will then bring widespread snow to much of the Inland Northwest late tonight into Saturday.
527 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Northwest winds have been blustery and a band of thick mid/high clouds have slowly progressed east this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. Today's model runs continue to be in very good agreement with the sequence of arctic high pressure systems moving south through Canada and into the Great Plains and Midwest. A high latitude upper level blocking ridge will form north of the Bering Sea and drive a series of very strong arctic high pressures south into the lower 48. The effects of the arctic air on Nebraska will depend the track of the highs which, for the next 7 days, is centered across the upper Missouri river basin and the Midwest.
637 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Warmer air will continue to flow into the region tonight into early Saturday ahead of a cold front.
Dew points have come up a few degrees across the plains east of the I-25 corridor but have started to fall again across northern sections of the area (specifically COS and FCS areas) as drier air has started working in behind the upper trof axis. Saturday will be dry and warmer for the mountains. but a few degrees cooler on the plains behind the front due to lighter winds and less deep mixing.
819 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure remains centered off the coast tonight and Saturday.
Increasing moisture aloft will allow for dense high clouds to fill into the region as low pressure and an upper trough approach the northern Gulf Coast. With strong high pressure anchored north of the waters, easterly wind surges will bring periods of cautionary to near advisory level winds, mainly over the offshore waters.
522 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Northwest flow will gradually decrease across the area this evening as cold front shifts east of the forecast area.
/Issued 255 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ Windy and cloudy conditions prevail this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in advance of a cold front currently pushing across Kansas and Nebraska.
951 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 For the 06Z TAFs, surface cold front has moved south of the terminal sites. /Issued 602 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front has moved through KGUY and KDHT and will move across KAMA early this evening with gusty north winds in its wake for several hours. Otherwise a cold front will move across the area tonight bringing a brief period of gusty north winds through evening before high pressure begins to settle into the area overnight. This will also lead to cooler conditions through the weekend.
919 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Showers ahead of an approaching cold front are already impacting much of Eastern Arkansas and portions of Northwest Tennessee. /issued 307 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ Skies remain sunny over much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 60s. Currently, a cold front extends from northern Minnesota through central Kansas and into eastern New Mexico. The cold front will move into the forecast area on Saturday with more rain expected. The cold front will move out of the region Saturday night with rain ending from northwest to southeast.
A mid-level trough axis is currently progressing eastward over the central and northern plains. A cyclonically-curved upper-level jet streak was positioned ahead of the trough axis such that weak upper- level divergence was present over the region. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 50s tomorrow. This means fire danger could get into the high category during the afternoon. An upper level trough will dig southeast across the central Plains Saturday night.
620 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure remains centered off the coast tonight and Saturday.
Due to cloud cover and scattered showers/storms, temperatures will be considerably cooler on Sunday.
810 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Most of the afternoon convection has moved off to the west, in this east to west upper flow between the strong ridge to the north and the trough in the Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/ Relief from the heat isn't far away but we will have to endure triple digit heat today with the center of the upper level ridge overhead.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 87 73 86 / 30 30 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 87 72 84 / 10 30 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 74 87 72 83 / 10 40 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 88 69 83 / 20 40 40 80.
732 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Aviation - Strong to severe storms into early tonight - Cooler Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms south - Mostly dry and much cooler most of this coming week The short story is we have considerable instability today and a severe thunderstorm watch. Beyond that the upper level eastern trough comes back into play so cooler and dry weather is expected most of this coming week. Some short waves rotating into the eastern trough may bring a few showers mid week and later in the week. As cooler air sinks southward, a stratus deck at 3000-3500 ft is expected to develop toward midnight and scatter after sunrise. Storms are expected this evening then high pressure rules most of this coming week.
Coverage of showers and storms becomes scattered to numerous on Sunday with the higher coverage expected over the western half of the area. An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend as weak upper ridging over the central and midwestern CONUS maintains a northeast flow over the local area. In terms of temperatures, expect highs to remain a few degrees cooler than normal (upper 80s) over the western half of the area Sunday afternoon due to increased cloud cover from showers and storms. Farther east over south-central Alabama and the interior Florida panhandle, thunderstorm coverage will be more scattered and peeks of sunshine will allow temps to reach the low to mid 90s.
While a ridge of high pressure to our northwest slowly builds across the Dakotas through Sunday night, we will have one last 500mb wave to deal with. Instability looks limited, with the higher CAPE values (still around 500J/kg or less) mainly just in the afternoon hours over our eastern- northeastern counties.
Latest RAP40 analysis shows the H100-H70 Bermuda Ridge axis bisecting the FL Peninsula from E/NE to W/SW. Favorable boating conds overnight as the lcl Atlc remains directly under the Bermuda Ridge axis.
/issued 237 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/ An upper level ridge of high pressure from the plains to the Ohio Valley will be the dominant weather feature through the weekend resulting in much above normal temperatures.
432 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 In the wake of significant morning convective line and modification of the lower level air mass, have seen isolated to scattered thunderstorms redevelop mainly south of a KMWM-KFSD-KANW line with residual elevated instability. Otherwise, clearing will begin to work southward, but a system moving from the Rockies into the central plains will begin to track northeast overnight, and could spread some precipitation back into the lower Missouri River valley later tonight.
Veering back to southwest tomorrow but speeds are expected to be lower than those seen the past few days with broad lower level trough moving toward the region. Cold front expected to approach KWWR tomorrow afternoon with any convection west/north of terminals through end of this forecast.
708 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Still monitors cold front stalled near International Border.
646 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 In the wake of significant morning convective line and modification of the lower level air mass, have seen isolated to scattered thunderstorms redevelop mainly south of a KMWM-KFSD-KANW line with residual elevated instability. Otherwise, clearing will begin to work southward, but a system moving from the Rockies into the central plains will begin to track northeast overnight, and could spread some precipitation back into the lower Missouri River valley later tonight.
Thicker overcast, along with more rain, will regulate tomorrow afternoon's warmth to the lower 90s. 31 The region will still remain under the weaker edge of the Rocky Mountain-center 594-ish 5H ridge.
257 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A cold front sits just south of the forecast area early this morning, stretching from southern Iowa into northern Illinois. With more sunshine in store today, the northern half of the forecast area will be a tad warmer than yesterday, while the southern half (now behind the cold front) will be a tad cooler. Upper level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS while upper troughing becomes more established over the east.
309 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 In the immediate short term/predawn hours, the surface cold front had pushed south of our cwa and was oriented from southwest to northeast KS as of 07Z. Cooler air with temps in the 60s were advecting south behind the boundary from northern Neb. Daytime temps will be quite a bit cooler than recent days in the post frontal airmass with readings ultimately dependent upon clouds and how long precip lingers. Aftn highs in the low/mid 70s should be common across south central Neb with some 80s possible in north central KS. The dry, cooler airmass remains across our region for the first part of the week (Mon/Tues) in between a western upper ridge over the Rockies and an eastern trough from Quebec through the Ohio valley.
Surface obs across Arkansas show temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, and dewpoints in the 70s, creating Heat Index values in the 100s. We'll see similar conditions on Sunday, with slight chances for rain across the southeast during the afternoon hours as embedded vort maxima drift across the region along the periphery of the high pressure system. Attention will quickly turn from the heat and humidity to a much needed cold front. The aforementioned high pressure system will gradually shift westward, becoming more amplified over the Four Corners Region as it does so. Therefore, high temperatures on Monday will be cooler than what we've experienced lately, with temperatures forecast to be in the mid 80s and lower 90s.
1213 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Changes already happening in some areas and the focus of the forecast is much, much cooler temperatures. Cold frontal push enhanced by South Dakota outflow has stalled in central/eastern Nebraska but continued to push south along the High Plains with 2mb pressure rises in western Nebraska. Bigger changes across the forecast area tonight as cooler air continues its spread south. Sunday is much cooler and likely wet most areas through at least midday.
Still monitors cold front stalled near International Border.
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Aviation - Strong to severe storms into early tonight - Cooler Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms south - Mostly dry and much cooler most of this coming week The short story is we have considerable instability today and a severe thunderstorm watch. Beyond that the upper level eastern trough comes back into play so cooler and dry weather is expected most of this coming week. Some short waves rotating into the eastern trough may bring a few showers mid week and later in the week. Storms are expected this evening then high pressure rules most of this coming week.
Temperatures today should be a 5 or more degrees cooler than longer term normals, with highs in the middle 70s. Monday should warm back to just below normal, with highs from the upper 70s into the lower 80s.