Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
125 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Persistent troughing in the upper levels will lead to periodic precipitation chances into the middle of the week, along with below normal temperatures. Further dampening chances will be developing subsidence aloft as a trough/low feature moves over the southeast U. With the aforementioned low/trough staying primarily south and east, dry weather is expected Monday as weak high pressure crosses in quasi- zonal mid-level flow.
1048 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Mean westerly flow expected most of the period as the persistent central NOAM trough finally shifts east. Western NOAM ridge will shift east Monday, with yet another NW flow impulse skirting on the backside of the upper trough over the eastern Dakotas. This will support a warmer but windy day as strong flow above the sfc mixâs out during the day. Warmer and continued dry conds expected Tues and Wed with highs in the 60s and 70s most places. This system will also support a decent chance for showers Thurs, with slightly cooler and unsettled conds expected for the end of the week.
Coverage is expected to remain scattered and precipitation totals low due to significant dry air across the region; however, 50 kts of deep layer shear, some instability, and low freezing levels could continue to support gusty winds or hail with the strongest of the storms.
Attention then turns to the northern stream, where a vigorous upper low will pass north of Lake Superior. Strong upper jet diving down the backside of that trof will push an otherwise weak cold front into the Ohio Valley late tonight, with just enough forcing to support a few light rain showers. Min temps will be the warmest we have seen in over a week, but just barely on the high side of climo.
1120 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Persistent troughing in the upper levels will lead to periodic precipitation chances into the middle of the week, along with below normal temperatures. Decreasing upper support and a lack of moisture are leading to very light rain showers or sprinkles overall as the surface cold front drops through the region. High pressure will then lead to dry weather and decreasing clouds for Monday. With the aforementioned low/trough staying primarily south and east, dry weather is expected Monday as weak high pressure crosses in quasi- zonal mid-level flow.
339 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Upper pattern has a flat ridge over the Southern tier of states today with the next trough along the CA coast.
356 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 The latest surface map features deepening low pressure across northern Georgia, with a weak cold front draped across the Ohio Valley. A better cold front is making its way into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with modest high pressure established from the Great Lakes through the central Plains. Aloft, troughing is found east of the Mississippi River, with cyclonic flow established across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
1125 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020 A cold front will move through New England tonight with a few showers possible mainly in the north as it moves through. It will be cooler on Monday behind the front.
123 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail at TAF sites as a cold front is working its way across the area.
1146 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the long wave trough persisting over the Plains. Within the northwest flow were a couple upper level short wave troughs, with multiple smaller scale troughs. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds developing during the afternoon ahead of these troughs. For the rest of the day and tonight, confidence is on the low side regarding precipitation potential for the forecast area. The strongest upper level short wave troughs will move near the northeast and southwest parts of the forecast area late this afternoon and this evening. Monday night a weak upper level short wave trough will move through Southeast Colorado. Most of this trough will be southwest of the forecast area, so confidence of any rainfall for Cheyenne County is low.
Expecting some decent mixing today which should bring temps to the low 70 across the area and decrease dewpoints down to the upper 20s in northeast Nebrasks/northwest Iowa.
Following that, high pressure and upper ridging take over until later Wed. Pcpn looking very limited Monday at the moment as upper trough remains across the eastern US.
Parts of far northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas should have the highest chance/coverage given the expected trajectory of the wave.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below High pressure will drift across the area this evening, with return flow setting up for a brief time overnight into Monday. We'll see a morning trough passage with perhaps some light showers (mainly across the south/east). A cold front will then move through Monday afternoon. The east/southeast portion of the area could escape the low humidity values if clouds/showers are widespread, but there remains uncertainty so a watch was preferred given the potential.
120 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the long wave trough persisting over the Plains. Within the northwest flow were a couple upper level short wave troughs, with multiple smaller scale troughs. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds developing during the afternoon ahead of these troughs. For the rest of the day and tonight, confidence is on the low side regarding precipitation potential for the forecast area. The strongest upper level short wave troughs will move near the northeast and southwest parts of the forecast area late this afternoon and this evening. Monday night a weak upper level short wave trough will move through Southeast Colorado. Most of this trough will be southwest of the forecast area, so confidence of any rainfall for Cheyenne County is low.
This system will clear the area late Monday with a drying trend to follow, and cooler temperatures into mid week.
Otherwise, temperatures today will be warmer than average, in the 60s for most but some 70s are possible along/near the Missouri River. As for precipitation chances, there could be some isolated shower activity, mainly along the Buffalo Ridge and into portions of northwestern IA this afternoon.
443 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Low pressure over the southeast will move offshore and deepen today.
Temperatures will warm gradually through the week as high pressure builds. As the short wave trough, which is driving the shower chances, moves east, winds will become breezier Monday evening lasting into Tuesday - particularly along the coastlines and around the San Francisco Bay. An upper level ridge grows over the Eastern Pacific on Tuesday driving higher pressure and clearer skies through the second half of the week.
Currently have highs in the low 70s, and along with everything else, if we mix out more, it may be slightly to low.
633 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Low pressure system continues crossing the region early this morning and will move offshore around midday. High pressure and fair weather expected Tuesday with a dry cold front crossing the region Tuesday evening.
Where present, this lower level cloud cover is expected to erode through the morning hours, while the denser cirrus shield is progged to shift farther to the north. Quiet weather will prevail in the wake of this system the rest of THU and into FRI, with global models becoming increasingly divergent FRI night and into the weekend while broadly agreeing on am upper trof digging into the Central/Eastern CONUS.
An area of low pressure will slowly move across the area over the next couple of days keeping the weather a little unsettled. Dry and warmer weather is on the way with temperatures well above normal by midweek and lasting into the weekend. Expect plenty of sunshine to go along with the warmer weather and occasional breezy winds.
The biggest question mark is going to be forcing for convective initiation as the main upper trough departs the area and the front flattens out/weakens and slows once it reaches the I-4 corridor. Overnight lows in the low/mid 60s, except upper 60s in Martin County. A cold front moves in this morning, bringing showers and some strong lightning storms. Hazardous boating conditions today as a cold front approaches the area, increasing the pressure gradient over all east central Florida waters. The cold front weakens as it moves south of the Cape this evening, winds diminish to 15-20 knots and seas drop to 3-4 feet nearshore and 4-6 feet offshore.
915 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 High pressure will provide us with fair weather today. A strong cold front will usher in unsettled weather late tonight and Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms, some of which may contain gusty winds. High pressure moves in today with fair weather. Strong cold front approaches tonight with showers and a few thunderstorms arriving after midnight.
Otherwise, temperatures today will be warmer than average, in the 60s for most but some 70s are possible along/near the Missouri River. As for precipitation chances, there could be some isolated shower activity, mainly along the Buffalo Ridge and into portions of northwestern IA this afternoon. Trends continue with cooler temperatures in the 50s and low 60s, with near 70 in the Missouri River Valley.
Adjustments were also made to high temperatures for today as mixing should bring some warmer 850 temps down to the surface. Winds will be gusty across the area tomorrow, there is some concern that winds could be even stronger at the surface depending on how much mixing occurs, looking at layer from 1000mb to 700mb there are winds 35 kts to 40kts at the higher end of this layer that could mix down with better mixing, leading to more widespread stronger surface winds. As for Tuesday, temperatures will be warmer with highs reaching the 70s.
At the surface, a cold front extended west southwest from a low pressure centered over western Ontario. Early this morning, this cold front was draped across northern North Dakota and will push south across the state through the day. For minimum relative humidity, basically went with the latest iteration of the RAP as it has been performing pretty well with the lower humidities over the past few days. The duration of the lower humidities looks to be relatively brief this afternoon (anywhere from 1 to 3 hours depending on location), and the timing of the lowest humidity values do not line up perfectly with the highest winds. Overnight lows will generally range from the lower 20s to lower 30s.
The upper trough exits and high pressure transitions across the region briefly at the sfc on Tuesday.
A weak upper level trough over Utah will slowly move eastward today and tonight in the southern stream. As the trough, progresses eastward it will weaken. Weak instability and lift from the trough is expected to produce scattered showers this afternoon and tonight, mainly over southern Colorado. Will have isolated to scattered PoPs for the higher terrain south of I-70. There will be weak QG ascent associated with this trough and enough moisture for showers and a few weak thunderstorms to develop mainly south of I-70. Models now indicate this trough will slow its eastward movement Tuesday night with showers lingering for much of the night over Lincoln County.
326 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 High pressure across the region will maintain warm and dry conditions over the next couple of days.
Beyond Tuesday, fair and warmer weather will move in with dry and mainly sunny days heading into the weekend.
For the rest of today, another trough will move in from Utah and tap into some instability aloft causing another day with some isolated to scattered rainshowers generally along and south of I-70.
434 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low moving into northwest GA. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed before daytime heating mixes the lower atmosphere later later this morning. Northwest flow aloft will prevail through Tuesday night, around the southern periphery of a deep longwave trof centered over eastern Ontario.
A nice day is on tap with highs in the low to mid 70s and light northerly winds. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 50s for most of the area.
This morning a weak upper level low will undercut the dominant West Coast ridge and pass onshore into Central California Monday afternoon. A chance for showers mainly over the Cascades, Siskiyous, and south into northern California will be fueled by moisture driven in from the low to the south. Tuesday should be mild, as broad ridging extends over the area.
A weak cold front will bring the potential for storms this afternoon to the NE OK and far NW AR sites. Parts of far northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas should have the highest chance/coverage given the expected trajectory of the wave.
Latest surface observations and IR satellite imagery show low pressure system across north central and northeast Alabama. Wrap around moisture to the north and west of the low will continue to bring light rain across the Tennessee Valley until around 10z before ending from west to east. A cold front associated with the aformentioned low pressure system will move through northern Alabama in the early morning hours. Clouds should quickly erode from west to east as cooler and drier air behind a cold front work their way into the area from the northwest. Northerly flow throughout the day will dampen diurnal heating, but mostly sunny skies will warm afternoon temperatures into the lower 70s.
/issued 339 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ Upper pattern has a flat ridge over the Southern tier of states today with the next trough along the CA coast.
310 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 High pressure across the Northern Rockies and Montana will maintain dry and relatively mild conditions across the region through the early part of this week.
A line of storms associated with an advancing cold front are just arriving in offshore waters and northern Levy County.
/issued 638 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ Stratus has formed over KPVW and should have expanded south to very near KLBB though high clouds are partially blocking view of the extent of low clouds. /issued 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ A low amplitude upper level ridge axis will move from the southern Rockies today into the southern plains tonight. So western counties are expected to warm a little above normal into the lower 80s, while temperatures should be near normal mid or upper 70s, in the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains.
/issued 434 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low moving into northwest GA. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed before daytime heating mixes the lower atmosphere later later this morning. Northwest flow aloft will prevail through Tuesday night, around the southern periphery of a deep longwave trof centered over eastern Ontario.
Weak high pressure will influence the weather over western Montana and central Idaho today and Tuesday, leading to a general warming trend. A few showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly along and north of the Highway 12 corridor.
635 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A cold front with possibly a few severe thunderstorms along the coast will move across the area rapidly this morning.
/issued 328 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Low pressure heads offshore across the Southeast as another trough swings into the Great Lakes by Tuesday, with high pressure generally holding across most of the central CONUS. Weak low pressure continues to sit over northern Mexico, eventually extending into western Texas. The 500mb ridge gradually builds through Tuesday, keeping generally warm and stable air in place aloft. Expect above normal highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday without the help of the dryline and a more southerly or southwesterly component.
Expecting some decent mixing today which should bring temps to the low 70 across the area and decrease dewpoints down to the upper 20s in northeast Nebraska/northwest Iowa.
510 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure across the Northern Rockies and Montana will maintain dry and relatively mild conditions across the region through the early part of this week.
305 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Latest upper level analysis has broad trof over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with ridge to the west. At the surface, high pressure resides across the area with light westerly boundary layer flow. Upper ridging will be in control of the weather pattern for the next several days.
Dry and warmer temperatures in place today ahead of increasing clouds and cooler temperatures on Tuesday as a frontal system approaches.
638 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Stratus has formed over KPVW and should have expanded south to very near KLBB though high clouds are partially blocking view of the extent of low clouds. /issued 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ A low amplitude upper level ridge axis will move from the southern Rockies today into the southern plains tonight. So western counties are expected to warm a little above normal into the lower 80s, while temperatures should be near normal mid or upper 70s, in the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains.
650 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Low pressure over the southeast will move offshore and deepen today. A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday followed by high pressure.
437 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 H5 ridge will be sweeping east across the northern Rockies today, mixing out yeaterday's cold front and clearing out skies across western WY. This will also help bring a thermal ridge across the state, with H7 temps rising from the negative 1 to 3 range up to around 0 to plus 1 this afternoon.
920 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 High pressure will briefly nudge into the area today. A cold front will approach the area tonight and move through Tuesday morning.
1047 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Low pressure will track off the Carolina coast into the western Atlantic today. High pressure will briefly build into the area tonight before a potent cold front passes through late Tuesday.
445 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Latest upper level analysis has broad trof over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with ridge to the west. At the surface, high pressure resides across the area with light westerly boundary layer flow. Upper ridging will be in control of the weather pattern for the next several days.
1046 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A potent low pressure system east of the Delmarva is connected to a trailing frontal system now pushing south through Central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. From synopsis, a deepening low pressure system east of Virginia will continue to move offshore this afternoon. A weakening frontal boundary trailing to the southwest of this low pressure system will press to the south tonight and Tuesday.
High pressure across the Arklatex and subsidence aloft will translate to dry weather through the rest of the day. Cloud cover is expected to scatter out through the afternoon with highs in the lower 60s to near 70. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 49 73 43 71 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 49 69 40 70 / 40 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 48 70 40 70 / 20 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 45 66 36 67 / 60 30 30 0 0.
613 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A cold front with possibly a few severe thunderstorms along the coast will move across the area rapidly this morning.
Tonight into Tuesday looks relatively quiet weather-wise, with slightly cooler temperatures following the frontal passage.
High temperatures approaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees will be possible in the lower deserts this coming weekend. High temperatures approaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees will be possible in the lower deserts this coming weekend.
Upper low moving into central California. Main impact will be increasing winds and cooler temps. An upper low pressure system moving through CA may bring a greater coverage of Cu through the afternoon at RDM/BDN.
1135 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 H5 ridge will be sweeping east across the northern Rockies today, mixing out yeaterday's cold front and clearing out skies across western WY. This will also help bring a thermal ridge across the state, with H7 temps rising from the negative 1 to 3 range up to around 0 to plus 1 this afternoon.
239 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 18Z surface data has the cold front running from eastern Lake Superior west across central Minnesota and into North Dakota. A strong cold front will sweep through the area this evening. Precipitation should enter the highway 20 corridor west of Dubuque between 430 and 6 PM and then move quickly southeast and exit the area just before midnight. 00-06z/21 a strong cold front will sweep through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. After 06z/21 VFR conditions will be seen as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
Outside of that conditions are expected to remain mostly sunny with highs reaching into the lower 60s across the northeast plains. A weak upper level trough over Utah will slowly move eastward today and tonight in the southern stream. As the trough, progresses eastward it will weaken. Weak instability and lift from the trough is expected to produce scattered showers this afternoon and tonight, mainly over southern Colorado. Will have isolated to scattered PoPs for the higher terrain south of I-70. There will be weak QG ascent associated with this trough and enough moisture for showers and a few weak thunderstorms to develop mainly south of I-70. Models now indicate this trough will slow its eastward movement Tuesday night with showers lingering for much of the night over Lincoln County.
A welcomed quiet short term is on tap as we stay under ridge dominated dry regime with NW flow aloft. A dry reinforcing cold front looks to push into the area Tuesday and will mainly just increase some NW gradient winds. Near normal temps are expected tonight and Tuesday with slightly cooler Tuesday night given the fropa.
1114 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Latest upper level analysis has broad trof over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with ridge to the west. At the surface, high pressure resides across the area with light westerly boundary layer flow. Upper ridging will be in control of the weather pattern for the next several days.
The upper levels consist of cyclonic flow across much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS while high pressure at the surface was centered across the lower Mississippi river valley. Most of tonight should remain dry before a weak cold front moves into the Ohio valley overnight and through the region on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday should reach the upper 50s across the higher terrain and mid 60s to low 70s elsewhere. High pressure will be settling over the area to start the period.
Dewpointswill remain lower making it slightly cooler at night and a little more manageable during the day. Lows will be in the 50s tonight then heating up into the low 80s tomorrow. The best chances will be in areas that received the most rain along the highway 84-corridor.
255 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Cold front on Tuesday with rain and storm potential.
Bubble high pressure will move in behind a cold frontal passage early Tuesday, leading to a dry and cooler day. Despite ample sunshine, highs should be limited to the lower and mid 60s at many locations. may be a touch warmer out in se MO.
159 PM PDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Low pressure will exit the region this evening with high pressure building over the area through the remainder of the week. For the general weather pattern through the week, warming and drying is the theme as models build a big ridge of high pressure along 130W and this will allow for a marked warming trend along with of course dry weather.