Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Afternoon thunderstorms are then expected to develop across north central Kansas after 18z as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest given the improving mid level moisture and lift forecast ahead of this upper level wave as it crosses western Kansas between 21z Thursday and 06z Friday.
Tomorrow, a trough axis within the northwest flow will drag a weak cold front across the area.
This will set the stage for a quiet and comfortable afternoon with temperatures in the low 80s.
High pressure centered north of Lake Superior will keep things dry and pleasant through Friday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s and the upper 50s to mid 60s tomorrow night. Friday will be the warmest of the next several days with highs in the low to mid 80s. At the end of the period a cold front will be encroaching on the CWA from the northwest.
Features in the short term include a trough of low pressure and associated cold front across northeast Montana into Saskatchewan. A warm front extended from this low through central North Dakota. For tonight, the cold front will slowly move into northwest North Dakota this evening, then into central ND on Friday. Then the weekend will be pleasantly cool and dry across the region in the wake of the cold front.
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight providing dry and quiet weather, outside of the potential for valley fog. High pressure will once again dominate the weather on Friday with dry and quiet weather expected.
Surface analysis this morning shows much of the same story as the last few days, which is high pressure centered to the north of the Great Lakes keeping conditions mild and pleasant across MN and western WI.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 72 89 70 / 60 80 50 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 72 89 71 / 60 90 50 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 88 70 89 69 / 60 90 50 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 68 87 68 / 70 90 50 60 30.
Winds will drop off slightly after 31/00Z and then increase once again by 15Z on Friday ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. High temperatures are on track to reach the lower to mid 90s this afternoon despite the cloud cover so it will be rather hot and humid through the rest of today with maximum heat index values approaching 105 degrees, but the breezy SW winds should help to mix out the air a bit more to provide at least some mild relief.
212 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 As an upper level ridge builds northward across the Intermountain West, the forecast area will be in northwest flow aloft this afternoon into tonight.
306 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 High pressure currently over the Northland will continue to keep skies mostly clear overnight. Lows tonight are expected to be in the low to mid 50s. High pressure over the region will slowly move eastward tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect cloud cover to gradually increase throughout the day, with highs in the low 80s. Model guidance has been in decent agreement regarding the timing of the cold front.
315 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 A mid to upper level low paired with a couple of surface boundaries all within the presence of ample moisture has yielded another active weather day with showers producing moderate to heavy rain across portions of the region. North northwesterly flow on the back side of the mid to upper level trough will continue through the weekend.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 73 90 72 89 / 80 60 80 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 88 72 89 / 80 60 90 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 72 88 70 89 / 80 60 90 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 70 84 68 87 / 80 70 90 50 60.
As the system that has brought the region some rain these last two days drops south and east, winds across the High Plains have turned easterly, allowing for increasing bulk shear and SBCAPE buildup up against the lee- side of the Laramie Range, with northwesterlies to the west of the mountains. The upper level trough departs to the southeast by midnight, looking at a mostly clear, calm night, with temperatures dropping into the 50s, 40s in the mountains. The next two days will serve as transition days into the warming and drying trend as an upper-level ridge builds in from the south and west, increasing its influence over the region's forecast.
The main upper level energy and surface front clears the area later Friday night, so expect a diminishing trend on showers/storms as cooler and drier air begin to advect into the region from the north.
1010 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Clear skies and radiational cooling has given way to temperatures dropping into the lower 50s across the Northland. Friday high pressure will begin to exit the region as a cold front will advance out of the northwest. Prior to the frontal system breaching the borders of MN the day will have calm conditions with light winds and slightly higher temps in the low to mid 80s.
259 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Features in the short term include a trough of low pressure and associated cold front across northeast Montana into Saskatchewan. A warm front extended from this low through central North Dakota. For tonight, the cold front will slowly move into northwest North Dakota this evening, then into central ND on Friday. Then the weekend will be pleasantly cool and dry across the region in the wake of the cold front.
Fog has diminished with temperatures already in the low 70s. Forecast on track with another day of some cirrus clouds and plenty of sun as highs climb into the low to mid 80s.
206 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a ridge of high pressure building over the Intermountain West early this morning. To the east, an upper trough continues to progress into New England, placing the region under northwest flow. As a disturbance swung through the flow over the High Plains, a line of showers and thunderstorms exited the region to the east. Drier air moves into the region on Friday as the upper ridge prevails over the western half of the CONUS. Temperatures rebound slightly into the low 80s for the afternoon, followed by dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s Friday night.
A ridge axis extends across the Rockies and a large upper level low was centered over southern Quebec. Nebraska is currently positioned between the trough and ridge and flow aloft is largely northerly. Dry air and surface ridging should filter in behind the cool front and leads to quieter weather through the weekend. The area should remain between the amplifying ridge over the Rockies to the west and the large trough over the eastern CONUS.
Hot weather arrives this afternoon as a large closed high pressure system builds over the better part of the southwestern U. The result is a high amplitude ridge firmly planted over the Northern Rockies.
243 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Upper level analysis has closed low across the central CONUS with ridging across the Great Basin. At the surface, weak high pressure is in place across the forecast area with a weak low near the Canadian border. Closed upper low to the southeast of the area will continue to slowly sink south and east as Great Basin ridge continues to build. Weak energy sliding south along the downstream edge of the ridge will produce some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening, with severe weather not anticipated.
1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop this afternoon along the axis of an upper level trough with daytime heating.
widespread lows tonight back down into the lower and middle 50s (a bit warmer near those big waters), with highs on Friday a touch warmer than those today.
132 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend with multiple passing low pressure systems. A positively tilted trough coincident with a strengthening jet stream is present across New England and the Eastern Great Lakes. Scattered showers and diurnally driven thunderstorms should continue through most of Friday as the axis of the large New England trough slowly propagates eastward. Another area of low pressure that originated in the Plains will undergo cyclogenesis as it traverses through the flow toward the Ohio Valley. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain through mid week as another longwave trough digs south of the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley along a stalled front.
233 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 The primary forecast concerns in the short term is how long the light showers will linger across the area in the upslope flow in the wake of the cold front that pushed south across the central high plains over the last 24 hours. Temperatures remain cool today with mostly cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and a cooler airmass with northeasterly upslope surface winds.
We've accepted the NBM handle/evolution of the surface boundary moving into and thru the FA during the next 24-36 hours, as the mean long wave trof rounds its way into/across the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys.
Otherwise cooler air will offset increased insolation with temperature generally in the lower 80s.
The weather picture changes temporarily Friday night as energy rounding a western CONUS upper ridge drops into a mean trough across the Great Lakes down into central Texas.
(This evening through Friday) Showers/thunderstorms are likely to develop across southwestern OK and western north TX this afternoon and evening a mid-level trough and surface boundary.
318 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Upper air analysis showed a positively tilted trough axis from Hudson Bay to Kansas, a Bermuda ridge over Florida to north central Gulf of Mexico, and a TS Isaias over Hispaniola. Bermuda ridge will become elongated with the approaching trough to the north and TS Isaias approaching southeast CONUS.
Upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS remains the prevailing weather maker for our area providing our area with clear skies, dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Clear skies and radiational cooling has given way to temperatures dropping into the lower 50s across the Northland. Friday high pressure will begin to exit the region as a cold front will advance out of the northwest. Prior to the frontal system breaching the borders of MN the day will have calm conditions with light winds and slightly higher temps in the low to mid 80s.
113 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 (Today and tonight) Main concern in the short term is a storm complex coming off the high plains of western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. For this afternoon, a lee cold front coming off Kansas will begin to push in.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 89 72 90 71 / 50 60 50 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 87 71 90 71 / 60 70 50 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 87 71 88 71 / 70 60 60 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 68 87 68 / 70 70 60 60 30.
535 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 The primary forecast concerns in the short term is how long the light showers will linger across the area in the upslope flow in the wake of the cold front that pushed south across the central high plains over the last 24 hours. Temperatures remain cool today with mostly cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and a cooler airmass with northeasterly upslope surface winds.
A band of thunderstorms has developed along a weak cold frontal boundary, from the Red River near Frederick, OK to west of Guthrie. /issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) A disturbance moving across the Plains will swing a cold front across the region. This combined with the passing low pressure will create conditions that are more favorable for thunderstorm development. Otherwise, look for slightly cooler temperatures for Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will settle into the low to mid 70s tonight.
653 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Although low level moisture increased today, it did not lead to anything more than isolated showers mainly over our waters south and west of the Lower Keys. Despite this, subsidence from deep layer ridging aloft has suppressed much in the way of shower activity. With that being said, a cloud line did develop over the Lower Keys and extended almost due west to Rebecca Shoal Light, which has been the main producer of isolated showers. Temperatures have risen to near 90 degrees with a few select communities reaching into the lower 90s.
929 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 High pressure currently over the Northland will continue to keep skies mostly clear overnight. Lows tonight are expected to be in the low to mid 50s. High pressure over the region will slowly move eastward tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect cloud cover to gradually increase throughout the day, with highs in the low 80s. Model guidance has been in decent agreement regarding the timing of the cold front.
Otherwise there is not even much cumulus coverage to speak of within the easterlies upstream of the Keys, a sure sign of the low-level ridge axis remaining firmly in control of our weather.
913 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Large area of high pressure continues to settle into the Upper Midwest and much of the Great Lakes region late this evening. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 50s. widespread lows tonight back down into the lower and middle 50s (a bit warmer near those big waters), with highs on Friday a touch warmer than those today.
For tomorrow, the upper level trough will have pushed off to the east with increasing pressure from a building ridge over Arizona and Utah. Warming aloft and subsidence will keep conditions slightly warmer and drier minus over the higher terrain with isolated storms possible by the afternoon hours. Some of the low cloudiness over the plains may take a little longer, but there will be a tendency toward westerly low level winds by morning. Forecast temperatures are near guidance, 5-10 degrees warmer than today, which looks good.
Heat will remain the big story over the next couple days as strong high pressure is centered over the Desert Southwest.
Arthur Upper level ridge strengthening over western Montana with northwesterly flow aloft over eastern Montana and Wyoming. Convective activity this afternoon has largely required terrain augmentation to briefly reach thunderstorm status and radar signatures over the lower elevations are exaggerated by grasshopper activity. borsum Ridging this weekend will lead to temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. While the ridging should in general keep things dry, there could still be some scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 High pressure currently over the Northland will continue to keep skies mostly clear overnight. Lows tonight are expected to be in the low to mid 50s. High pressure over the region will slowly move eastward tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect cloud cover to gradually increase throughout the day, with highs in the low 80s. Model guidance has been in decent agreement regarding the timing of the cold front.
902 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend with multiple passing low pressure systems. A positively tilted trough coincident with a strengthening jet stream is present across New England and the Eastern Great Lakes. Scattered showers and diurnally driven thunderstorms should continue through most of Friday as the axis of the large New England trough slowly propagates eastward. Another area of low pressure that originated in the Plains will undergo cyclogenesis as it traverses through the flow toward the Ohio Valley. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain through mid week as another longwave trough digs south of the Great Lakes.
High pressure has settled in over Arizona and with it comes some record high temperatures today across northern Arizona. Heat will remain the big story over the next couple days as strong high pressure is centered over the Desert Southwest.
The cold front to our north will return rapidly northward as a warm front, with nocturnal showers and storms focused over the northwestern portion of the forecast area.
The latest mesoscale analysis shows instability is starting to decrease slightly across southeast Oklahoma with shear starting to increase as the short wave trough moves into the region. Regardless, scattered to widespread shower and storm activity is expected through the overnight hours as the 700mb short wave trough dives into the area.
649 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 A mid to upper level low paired with a couple of surface boundaries all within the presence of ample moisture has yielded another active weather day with showers producing moderate to heavy rain across portions of the region. North northwesterly flow on the back side of the mid to upper level trough will continue through the weekend.
644 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Low pressure centered over south central Illinois is dragging a weak cold front slowly south through the forecast area. With clouds and precip over the southern 1/2 of the forecast area, temperatures should be as much as 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today. However there will likely be less cloud cover over northern Missouri and west central Illinois so highs up there will likely be a few degrees warmer.
542 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend with multiple passing low pressure systems. A positively tilted trough coincident with a strengthening jet stream is present across New England and the Eastern Great Lakes. Scattered showers and diurnally driven thunderstorms should continue through most of Friday as the axis of the large New England trough slowly propagates eastward. Another area of low pressure that originated in the Plains will undergo cyclogenesis as it traverses through the flow toward the Ohio Valley. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain through mid week as another longwave trough digs south of the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley along a stalled front.
High pressure ridging will begin to quickly nose in behind the passing trough as it heads northeast.
Cold front dropping through the area today, with gusty north winds on the plains gradually turning easterly as of mid-afternoon. While best dynamic lift should be over the far eastern plains near departing upper trough, low level easterly upslope and modest (CAPE 500-1000 j/kg) instability may force some convection over the southeast mountains, with storms moving s-se this evening. Northwest flow will continue over the area through the weekend thanks to the high pressure present at upper levels to our southwest.
Thunderstorms continue to grow in coverage and intensity along the Highway 85 corridor from near Watford City to the South Dakota border. Features in the short term include a trough of low pressure and associated cold front across northeast Montana into Saskatchewan. A warm front extended from this low through central North Dakota. For tonight, the cold front will slowly move into northwest North Dakota this evening, then into central ND on Friday. Then the weekend will be pleasantly cool and dry across the region in the wake of the cold front.
A weak short wave trough is currently working its way across the northern part of the state. This is having little impact on our weather but is bringing slightly cooler temperatures as they are running 1 to 4 degrees cooler than yesterday this time. Tomorrow we will see the four corners ridge amplify with troughing setting up off the coast of the PacNW.
/GG/ The region is in the midst of a pattern shift, as a short wave dives into the Plains and the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight and tomorrow. The wave separates from the main 500mb trough over the northeastern CONUS, remaining out of phase and slowing over the region. For tomorrow, that meandering upper low will be still causing potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the developing front. The stronger storms will be along and ahead of the front in the late afternoon/evening hours accompanied by the better instability and shear associated with the boundary as well as the upper low. A ridge has set up nicely on western portion of the CONUS and as a result from that, a trough is beginning to take shape across the midwest and eventually deepening, swinging down to us in the southeast Friday.
Upper ridge folding in from north will also force higher clouds southward, so mainly clear by late night, other than potential for a few clouds redeveloping and advecting toward southeast parts of northwest Iowa. There may also be a little shallow fog in low spots across southeast SD closer to the low-level ridge axis, but at this point a fairly minimal chance to be significant. Temps look to generally be a good 3-6 degrees warmer than today, despite the fairly light surface gradient. Should again see a few more cumulus develop mainly east of I-29, as temps aloft become quite a bit warmer, especially west.
502 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Cold front dropping through the area today, with gusty north winds on the plains gradually turning easterly as of mid-afternoon. While best dynamic lift should be over the far eastern plains near departing upper trough, low level easterly upslope and modest (CAPE 500-1000 j/kg) instability may force some convection over the southeast mountains, with storms moving s-se this evening. Northwest flow will continue over the area through the weekend thanks to the high pressure present at upper levels to our southwest.
/issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) A disturbance moving across the Plains will swing a cold front across the region. This combined with the passing low pressure will create conditions that are more favorable for thunderstorm development. Otherwise, look for slightly cooler temperatures for Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will settle into the low to mid 70s tonight.
The upper ridge to our west builds eastward today, bringing warmer temps for today and Friday with highs in the mid and upper 80s. A surface frontal boundary is expected to pass through the Dakotas Friday, bringing our next chance for showers/storms and setting up a cooler latter half of the weekend. A mid-level ridge over the Rockies will allow a positive tilt trof to form over the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures in the low/mid 70s. (Modified previous discussion) High pressure ridge axis over Central FL will transition slightly north allowing winds to gradually pick up and become progressively onshore throughout the day.
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Upper level ridge strengthening over western Montana with northwesterly flow aloft over eastern Montana and Wyoming. Convective activity this afternoon has largely required terrain augmentation to briefly reach thunderstorm status and radar signatures over the lower elevations are exaggerated by grasshopper activity. borsum Ridging this weekend will lead to temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. While the ridging should in general keep things dry, there could still be some scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
522 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Upper level analysis has closed low across the central CONUS with ridging across the Great Basin. At the surface, weak high pressure is in place across the forecast area with a weak low near the Canadian border. Closed upper low to the southeast of the area will continue to slowly sink south and east as Great Basin ridge continues to build. Weak energy sliding south along the downstream edge of the ridge will produce some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening, with severe weather not anticipated.
Otherwise, will have to wait higher PoPs to come with the cold front now moving through central SK/MB.
Some of the low cloudiness over the plains may take a little longer, but there will be a tendency toward westerly low level winds by morning. Forecast temperatures are near guidance, 5-10 degrees warmer than today, which looks good.
Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop this afternoon along the axis of an upper level trough with daytime heating.