Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Guidance continues to favor near record heat, however, upper level clouds from the cold front currently located from the northeastern GOMEX up into north Florida have already reached east central Florida. Dewpoints continue to recover slowly, but warmer max temps will still produce min RH values dropping near 40 percent, dipping into the upper 30s in some spots.
226 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front pushes east of our area this evening and be off the Carolina coast early Friday.
442 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 CIMSS MIMIC atmospheric-integrated total precipitable water product highlights the large-scale ridging that has penetrated the Florida Keys over the past several days is slowly waning. Increased moisture continues to push northward on the periphery of this ridge. Closer to home, skies remain mostly sunny, and temperatures are in the lower 80s at most island communities. The aforementioned ridge will continue to slide eastward to the eastern Atlantic, as a decaying frontal boundary over the Florida Peninsula races northeastward.
Expect a brief warm-up today as a strong, but fleeting upper- level ridge moves eastward across the Rockies and high plains. Little to no snow accumulation is expected for the lower elevations. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday behind this system with highs in the 40s and low 50s.
1110 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will pass across the area this morning.
Temperatures trend warmer mid to late week. Temperatures are already running a solid 4 to 9 deg F warmer compared to 24 hours ago, which will translate similarly to the afternoon highs. Upper-level ridge axis will drift over the West Coast on Friday, allowing for further warming as the work week concludes.
323 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Tonight and Friday: Cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather is expected through the period. Despite the insolation temperatures will again top out cooler than normal from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south.
A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers back to northern Arizona near the Utah border this afternoon and evening.
Tonight also temperatures will drop to near freezing in most of the area. Some areas in the northwest corner of the forecast area will get close to freezing. Don't think it will be at freezing long enough to freeze, so will keep the frost advisory.
Weak ridging aloft and at the surface tonight spells quiet weather with cool temps, though dry lower levels should keep any fog from forming.
Lowered the highs a couple of degrees for today as the clouds have been slow to clear this afternoon and that has kept the temperatures lower than forecast, but clearing in central Minnesota will continue to expand and areas that see sun should see temperatures rise a little further. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s tonight under clear skies and light winds.
343 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 As the Low rotates thru tonight, it will drag its clouds, maybe some isolated showers, with it.
328 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Sfc analysis this afternoon highlights westerly post-frontal flow across the region, with the cold front that brought showers and gusty winds last night now pushing through West Virginia and the East Coast states. Precip chances will exit the region by 12z tomorrow as the primary trough axis pushes to our east. There is potential for some areas of frost across our region as temperatures dip into the low 30s by tomorrow morning. Expect afternoon highs to be in the low to mid 50s for most. Friday evening chilly high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley but by sunrise it will have moved eastward to the Virginias. In addition to the core of the high moving away, high clouds will begin to increase from the west after midnight ahead of the next system.
Next wave of light moisture moves in from west to east with profiles supportive of snow initially, but NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles support a 2 and 4kft thick above freezing layer during the day meaning a mix to rain.
345 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Plains ridging over the forecast area, while our old frontal boundary is now east of us and extending swwd into the cntl Gulf.
258 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A strong cold front is just starting to push through the west coast of Florida with Levy county the only place seeing rain. As we start the weekend both the GFS and EURO are trying to form a low along the front as an upper level trough moves through.
236 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Scattered rain and snow showers will diminish this evening over the region, with a return to a slightly warmer and drier day on Friday.
With temperatures above freezing, the snow should not cause any impacts to travel other than briefly lowering visibility to around 2-3 miles. High pressure will move overhead tonight and we should clear out the sky from west to east during the evening and overnight hours. With the light and variable wind and clear sky, we should drop below freezing tonight across the area with some mid 20s possible in parts of the eastern Ozarks. The high pressure center will gradually shift east of the area on Friday with highs from the upper 50s to low 60s.
Key Messages: - Light snow, patchy freezing drizzle this morning - Temperatures getting closer to seasonal normals Today and Tonight: Final phase of our mid-week system is underway with light snow on its backside before it finally departs today. Other concern with the intrusion of drier mid-level air is the potential for some patchy freezing drizzle through mid-morning. Have added this to the forecast as a possibility this morning, but am not anticipating much freezing drizzle production. With lingering cyclonic flow aloft and cold advection steepening the low level lapse rates, forecast soundings today suggest the possibility for flurries/sprinkles through much of the day given the moist, slightly unstable boundary layer. Clouds should largely diminish overnight as weak ridging builds in with lows dipping into the teens in the favored bog areas, mid 20s elsewhere.
131 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated short wave trough moving into the region with another strong short wave trough digging into Montana behind it. At the surface, ridge was centered over eastern CWA, with lee trough developing across eastern Colorado. Fairly quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as aforementioned short wave ridge moves over the area and trough intensifies. Main concern for Friday will be cold front sweeping across the area as next short wave trough moves through.
Winds should fall below 10 mph later this evening and will gradually shift to the south and southeast as high pressure settles across the Southern Plains. The combination of mostly clear skies and light winds should promote efficient radiational cooling and allow low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s tonight.
Expect diurnal temperature patterns to fluctuate around freezing. A very brief period of high pressure will push in tomorrow morning with light southerly winds before our next round of precipitation pushes into the region. A long upper level trough with a weak jet will move over the Midwest late Friday, generating two areas of low pressure, one poised to move over the Canadian Plains and the other over Iowa.
East of the front, winds were southerly over the Highway 83 corridor, with decreasing northeast winds over the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley. Tonight, the cold front is expected to move through all but the far southeast portion of the forecast area as the attendant upper low moves into western Manitoba.
Precipitation will dry out this evening/tonight with weak ridging across the area. A weak ridge will build into the area later today into early Friday.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s northwest of I-65, and the upper 40s and lower 50s to the southeast.
Cool west-northwesterly flow will result in mild temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast. High pressure will build over the Lower Mississippi Valley region tonight and this will further reinforce CAA and stable conditions. However, the mid-level portion of the trough will eject across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. There is a possibility we could see frost development in our far northwestern counties if temperatures are slightly cooler than expected, but this will depend on how quickly the cloud cover exits, so will hold off on a Frost Advisory for now, but will reassess later today.
Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow the entire area to dip into the 20s overnight, and some of the typically cold spots could even dip into the high teens.
Strong cold front from last night now well east. A passing week upper trough will cause a few evening showers which will again lower CIGs/VSBYs a bit.
147 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A passing cold front will keep showers and storms in the forecast today, as well as high winds. Clearing sky and brief residual warm advection will temporarily boost area temperature, then the arrival of a surface cold front will initiate the dropping temperature. The upper trough axis will cross the region overnight, with a reinforcing cold air arriving through the morning hours Friday. The upper level trough will complete its passage over the region Friday, with the cold core and enough jet support to foster continued iso/sct showers. Higher elevations may see an inch of snow due to orographic lift and cooler thermal profiles that will better support accumulation. Subsidence and high pressure will return dry weather to the region by Friday night as the upper trough exits east.
Chances for precipitation will decrease tonight along with decreasing cloud cover as the upper trough / vort max moves off to the east. with afternoon highs hovering in the upper 30s across the western half of the CWA and only reaching the lower 40s east of I-57. Overnight lows will range from the middle 20s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 30s near the Indiana border. High pressure will bring improving conditions for Friday.
1253 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A closed upper low is currently dropping southeast across Kansas. For today, northwest flow aloft will continue with upper ridging and warm air advection. Upstream, an upper trough will cross the Rockies. Went cooler with highs east of Valentine through North Platte (upper 40s to lower 50s) due to recent snowfall and cooler temperatures aloft from the departing upper trough to the east. Tonight, the upper trough will approach the area, with an increase in mid and high cloudiness, and increasing chances for light snow after midnight across the northwest Sandhills. Friday, the upper trough will extend north to south from North Dakota into Oklahoma. As cold front will also advance eastward, with a breezy north wind across the southwest.
The closed upper level low that brought daily record breaking snowfall to portions of central and south-central Kansas today will quickly push east. There will be a chance for showers and storms out ahead of this trough with the highest chances over south-central Kansas. In that scenario some of the higher totals could play out. Further north PWATS are closer to average and with drier air at the low levels.
148 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Key Messages: - Sub-freezing temperatures Friday morning.
Still looking at some additional moisture for Friday, ptype mainly rain but with freezing levels around 2kft could initially start as snow. High pressure is building into the region early this morning, with clear skies across central SD and lingering stratus over the eastern CWA. Winds will be lighter today compared to yesterday as the high pressure remains in place.
On Friday, a short wave trough will move east from the Rockies and across the Central/Southern Plains by afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
In the wake of the storms, the cold front that helped initiate them will continue moving through the forecast area this afternoon through the evening. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the low 60s in North Georgia and the low 70s for Central Georgia.
The trough axis appears to be somewhere over central Utah along the Wasatch Front. Large scale forcing is maximized at this time as well with the trough passage with the best QG forcing through 12Z Friday and large scale subsidence quickly filling in behind by late Friday morning into the afternoon. The convective nature of this event though could result in some locally higher amounts across the higher peaks of the central and southern mountains, but overall anticipating a sub-advisory event. Temperatures should bounce back rather quickly Friday afternoon as drier air and subsidence take hold with high pressure sliding in from the west and WAA taking place quickly behind this wave.
There may even be enough instability for localized graupel given the low freezing levels. Building ridge will bring dry conditions regionwide Friday night.
Tranquil conditions will persist through early Friday as weak ridging aloft pushes east across the Western High Plains. Expect lows generally down into the 30s(F) with the lower 40s(F) not out of the question in extreme southwest Kansas. Deepening lee side trough ahead of an approaching cold front will strengthen southerlies across central and much of southwest Kansas through early afternoon Friday, pulling warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures ranging from around 7C to 10C with the warmest air in south central Kansas. Friday we will start the day with a passing upper level ridge and southerly winds. Since the trough looks fairly progressive in nature most of this activity should exit the area shortly after sunset.
119 PM PDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A deep marine layer will continue into the weekend with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well inland, onto the lower coastal mountain slopes at times. Upper level high pressure across the eastern Pacific will strengthen and expand along the West Coast during the middle of the week. Weak ridging will be present over the area Friday which should result in better clearing than today along with temps a few degrees warmer.
Light freezing drizzle and light snow are the main concerns.
A period of benign but pleasant weather behind the passage of yesterday's cold front will continue through the remainder of the week. While this will provide a gradual increase in moisture availability, forecast soundings depict limited cloud cover until the evening hours and as a result highs should approach or slightly exceed 80 degrees (have trended towards the higher range of the NBM distribution). WAA and increased cloud cover will provide a slightly warmer evening with lows in the 50s, with some streamer shower development after midnight not out of the question.
1222 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will move through the area this evening.
Satellite imagery shows upper trough progressing through East Idaho this afternoon. The region of showers moving into the Arco Desert may hold together enough to impact the Upper Snake Plain as a weak convergence zone, but with the trough rapidly shifting east. Flat high pressure returns late tonight into Friday with transitory ridge building along the coastal states and shifting east across Idaho during the day.
1256 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated short wave trough moving into the region with another strong short wave trough digging into Montana behind it. At the surface, ridge was centered over eastern CWA, with lee trough developing across eastern Colorado. Fairly quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as aforementioned short wave ridge moves over the area and trough intensifies. Main concern for Friday will be cold front sweeping across the area as next short wave trough moves through.
Some freezing rain was also likely occurring over parts of Door County, where surface temperatures were hovering near freezing. Farther west, patchy light snow or freezing drizzle will result in locally hazardous travel this morning. Spotty light precipitation will taper off in the north and far southeast this evening, with partial clearing occurring as a ridge of high pressure arrives overnight. The ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and lighter winds on Friday, along with high temperatures moderating into the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Tranquil conditions will persist through early Friday as weak ridging aloft pushes east across the Western High Plains. Expect lows generally down into the 30s(F) with the lower 40s(F) not out of the question in extreme southwest Kansas. Deepening lee side trough ahead of an approaching cold front will strengthen southerlies across central and much of southwest Kansas through early afternoon Friday, pulling warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures ranging from around 7C to 10C with the warmest air in south central Kansas.
209 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Current surface map shows warm front across western South Dakota.
JKL PacNW trof moving into the region overnight will be the main weather feature in the short term. As trof moves out of the Rockies and across the high plains today, the main energy will remain north of our CWA. Although there is a chance some snow may mix with rain in the lower elevations and foothills today, any significant accumulations will likely remain in the high country where 3-6 inches of snow is possible. A secondary impulse will drop down the front range and into the the main trof this evening. Temps on Friday will be a bit warmer than today, but look for brisk W/NW winds (15-30 mph) over the whole CWA. BT Ensembles favor an unsettled weather pattern through the extended with periods of showers and cooler conditions separated by brief warmups.
323 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Amplified upper-level ridging has moved over the High Plains this afternoon as a downstream trough moves east of our region. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase in advance of this approaching trough which may limit the warmer temperatures a bit in portions of our northwestern CWA.
1127 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A passing cold front will keep showers and storms in the forecast today, as well as high winds. This line is expected to shift east of the region over the next two hours, with a lull in activity until the surface cold front approaches from the west. However, the upper trough axis won't cross the region until overnight. The upper level trough will complete its passage over the region Friday, with the cold core and enough jet support to foster continued iso/sct showers. Higher elevations may see an inch of snow due to orographic lift and cooler thermal profiles that will better support accumulation. Subsidence and high pressure will return dry weather to the region by Friday night as the upper trough exits east.
The clearing skies and lighter winds should allow for some cooler low temperatures, especially across any remaining snow cover.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Key Messages: - Warmer and less windy tomorrow with highs in the 50s.
900 AM PDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A deep marine layer will continue into the weekend with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well inland, onto the lower coastal mountain slopes at times with some patchy drizzle this morning.
Cold front is just east of I-75. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 62 39 66 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 59 36 65 43 / 20 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 41 59 36 63 42 / 20 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 54 32 62 40 / 40 10 0 10 20.
152 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Yesterdays strong passing cold front now well east. But there is an incoming weak SFC/LL trough, and a sharp upper trough still to pass. Around 12Z Tues, there is a frontal boundary expected to be draped just to our north and we will see several upper wave pass Tues-Thu, before a deep trough swings by Thu night. The frontal boundary will retreat as a warm front Tues, then a cold front will push through early Thu. This flow will also bring in pools of deeper moisture and period of pcpn are expected Tues through Thu, although chances will be the lowest on Thu. A passing week upper trough will cause a few evening showers which will again lower CIGs/VSBYs a bit.
149 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will pass across the area this morning.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Upper-level low across northern Arkansas to swing east overnight allowing for weak ridging to set up across the ArkLaTex before the flow becomes zonal on Friday. With the onset of southerly flow on Friday as high pressure shifts east, expect a gradual warming trend with high temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 60s to lower to middle 70s. An upper-level trough will move across the region on Friday night supporting a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across southeast Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and southwest Arkansas.
The area remains under the influence of low pressure at the surfacew and aloft. Discussion: A 500 MB trough is forecast to exit to the east this evening along with its pocket of cold air aloft and moisture. This will bring any shower activity to an end over the evenings hours as high pressure builds into the Plains. Temperatures quickly rebound during the day on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 40s north of Highway 30 to the lower 50s south.
Good Morning from the day shift crew! Current temperatures are still trending a few degrees cooler than this time yesterday with much of our region in the 40s to low 50s. Temperatures this morning are running a few degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago with less widespread cloud cover, at least across much of the region.
Northwest flow aloft will persist as an upper level ridge pushes onshore later today. As the ridge infiltrates into the area, pressure gradients will tighten to provide breezy winds through the eastern Gorge and across the Kittitas Valley as gusts of 20-30 mph are expected this afternoon. Winds will slowly subside through this evening as the ridge's axis nears the Pacific coast. Clear skies tonight will attribute to the coldest night in the forecast, with overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper-20s through Central Oregon and mountain zones, and into the low to mid-30s for lower elevations of the Basin.
Temps in the cleared area around the Devils Lake Basin have already climbed into the 30s, and should make the low 40s that we have progged. Portions of our southern CWA that received snow yesterday will also be cloudy longer, so kept temps below freezing for most of the afternoon. Do think they will see some sun so kept highs in the low 30s, but will keep an eye on the area.
621 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front pushes east of our area this evening and be off the Carolina coast early Friday.
724 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front passes to the east coast tonight. Breezy conditions and cooler temperatures to follow into Friday.
606 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Key Messages: - Sub-freezing temperatures Friday morning.
Swells continue to run around 5ft with 9 second periods and with winds across the waters expected to be moderate from the east, the high risk of dangerous rip currents will likely continue tonight. Therefore, have extended the High Rip Current through early Friday morning. With an increasing temperature inversion, smoke may become trapped in the lower levels overnight into early Friday morning, possibly resulting in lower visibilities.
Temperatures should be a bit warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
/NF/ Tonight and Friday: Cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather is expected through the period. Despite the insolation temperatures will again top out cooler than normal from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south.
A weak cold front has sagged south into north- central FL this evening, bringing widespread showers and embedded lightning storms to areas along and north of I-4. As of 9PM, evaporative cooling has saturated the low-levels of the atmosphere and dropped temps to the mid/upper 60s from Leesburg to Sanford to Daytona. To the south that warm breeze keeps temps in the mid to upper 70s, then slowly drop into the low 70s late tonight. A very slow moving cold front is producing widespread rain with embedded lightning storms from KLEE-KSFB-KDAB.