Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
437 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 It's looking a bit wet for the next several days across the Lower Missouri River Valley as the broader pattern across the Nation keeps the potential for thunderstorms persisting through the weekend in our section of the country. Big picture; water vapor imagery shows the Nation dominated by a bit of an amplified pattern with a trough extending from the Hudson Bay southwest across the Western United States and a ridge spinning over the Deep South, along the Gulf Coast.
342 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 500MB high pressure centered near the MS/AL border is expected to drift up the Appalachians this short term period. With the upper high drifting up the Appalachians on Friday.
Cold front that currently extends from southeast Iowa into west central Missouri will move slowly southeast today under the west southwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm coverage this morning will be isolated as the low level jet veers and low level moisture convergence weakens over the area. High temperatures today will warm back up close to normal ahead of the cold front where mixing will be up to 850mb. Britt The cold front now looks like it won't get much further south than I- 70 by 12Z Friday.
328 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A slowly approaching cold front, will bring a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one this morning, and another this evening.
310 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely today as a cold front moves east across the area. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to middle 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s. Upr level trof over the nrn plains will move east to the upr grtlks today and to Quebec tonight. Post-frontal high pressure should build into the area tonight providing fair wx after perhaps a few lingering showers/storms se early. Temps should just cool back to normal with lows in the l60s and highs in the l80s, warming slightly Sat as the ridge moves east and wk waa develops.
Upper trof now over eastern Montana continues to push east and is taking the cloud shield with it. Will leave the low PoPs in place through midnight. A cold front pushes into northern portions Thursday evening. An upper level low pressure trof over Central and Southwest Montana will slowly move east this evening and the air mass will dry. As the trof moves east, the region will be underneath northwest flow aloft.
218 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Broad area of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking off an aftn shower or tstorm. Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge.
At the surface, a weak low pressure is centered over western Oklahoma while a high pressure was spreading east across the High Plains. Overnight tonight, yet another disturbance is expected to begin moving east towards the high plains. In addition to the trough, moisture advection is forecast to begin from the southeast. This disturbance will bring the highest precipitation chances. In fact, latest guidance indicates a widespread band of showers/storms moving through the High Plains. Atmospheric instability and lapse rates do improve, likely a result of the moisture surge and slightly warmer conditions over Colorado.
The models suite is in good agreement that the 597dam upper ridge moves northeastward today and tonight and decreases slightly. Therefore, the mid and upper flow will be east to northeast on the southern periphery of this ridge. Since the lift, upward motion, proximity to ridge, poor mid level lapse rates, SBCape, and moisture convergence are all rather limited, dropped pops to isolated north and west with nothing mentioned elsewhere. Easterly flow brings lower 850 temps and thicknesses, but highs should still manage the low to mid 90s with the warmest west and south.
(Issued 922 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016) The upper ridge axis was remaining across the Tennessee valley region tonight.
316 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper high is currently centered over MS/AL and will be the main feature of our forecast for the next few days.
506 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region today through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
Cooler temperatures on tap. By Friday upper troughing starts to take place to the west as next wave drops into slowly amplifying flow.
The h5 trough extended from the lowest pressures over Manitoba southward toward colorado and back toward Idaho. The latest runs on the hires models continue to support the highest pops through tonight near the Kansas border and more isolated showers toward I80. As the trailing trough deepens Friday, south flow increases and the h85 front lifts northward. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s.
Water vapor imagery continues indicated a mid to upper level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico with large scale subsidence over the area this morning.
Ceilings of middle and high clouds from 13 kft to 25 kft for much of the lower half of East Texas and North Louisiana and parts of Southwest and South Central Arkansas.
The highest PWAT axis is now over central Illinois and through central Missouri and near the main surface boundary. High pressure to the northwest will continue to settle southeast into northern Iowa today. These storms will weaken but still will remain possible that they reach the far southern forecast area today despite drier air advecting in the lower 5 kft.
Mesoanalysis shows a 5H speed max crossing central Illinois and a very weak surface trof reaching from northern Illinois to central Kentucky. Any storms will then weaken when they move into north central Kentucky as the sun sets and the storms run into increasing ridging aloft. Thursday morning a weakening cold front will reach from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle, and will drift down to the Ohio River by evening.
Based on clear or clearing skies tonight and a southerly wind at less than 10 mph will trend towards to cooler model guidance for lows.
715 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 The broad upper level closed low will remain parked over Cntrl TX during the next 24 hours. with mid/upper level dry slotting wrapping around the ern periphery of the low having tapered much of the -SHRA and embedded -TSRA across the region. However, rainfall coverage across the Arklatex has been gradually diminishing with the highest rainfall rates around a quarter to a half an inch per hour over the Kisatchie Forests in West Central Louisiana at this time.
749 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
Low level southerly flow and mid level southwesterly flow around a closed upper low over Texas is providing lift along and north of that boundary for afternoon storms. Over the next few days, the upper level low over Texas will drift southeastward with low and mid level flow continuing from the south. The upper low's southward movement is due to a larger closed low and trough amplifying over the northern Plains and into the Midwest. Tomorrow, heights rise slightly as weak ridging amplifies over the area, between closed low systems.
/issued 211 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ Showers continue to develop across the area as an upper low moves east. The upper low is forecast to stall over east Texas and weaken this weekend.
927 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weakening cold front will move into northwest Pennsylvania tonight before stalling over southern Pa Friday.
/issued 341 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ This next round of showers and storms continue to move northwest across the area this evening pivoting around the big upper low slowly moving east through south Texas.
but even tho the freezing level is 1000 feet higher today. models are showing high pressure building aloft in response to low pressure deepening over Texas. this ridging will also help push daytime highs into the 90s for most areas. The ridging should greatly hinder severe storm development and SPC is only showing a general thunder threat at this time.
1149 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 The latest surface analysis shows a stationary front lingering along far SE Illinois/Indiana border, with high pressure across the remainder of Illinois and extending into Wisconsin. With fair skies and light winds tonight, with high pressure nearby, sided toward the cooler MET lows ranging from mid-upper 50s central IL and lower 60s south of I-70. High pressure ridge over the area will slowly shift east Friday as a upper level trough and associated frontal system moves across the northern tier of the US.
533 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 18z water vapor imagery/rap analysis indicated short wave trough bisecting the cwa and moving to the southeast. Visible imagery showed cu field developing across central portions of the area and can actually see small area of enhancement moving southeast south of Oakley which may be tied to aforementioned short wave trough. Overnight a cold front will begin to reach the area as next weak disturbance approaches.
1041 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weakening cold front will move into northwest Pennsylvania tonight before stalling over southern Pa Friday.
Have kept a slight chance of rain showers over the Elkhorn mountains and the higher terrain of Wallowa county this evening but have removed any mention of rain overnight.
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the upcoming weekend resulting in dry and increasingly warm conditions. High pressure over the Great Basin remained somewhat flattened this evening due to a weak trough currently crossing the northern Rockies. This trough pushed a weak cold front into the forecast area and currently lies across central Utah. This cold front combined with sufficiently thick high clouds kept most of northern Utah below the 90 degree mark today. However, temperatures are still quite a bit warmer than climatological normals. The high clouds will persist through late evening before thinning. Temperatures are not expected to warm much if at all for tomorrow due to the cold front. However, the high pressure will strengthen for the weekend which will lead to a renewed warming trend.
1050 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms into Friday morning. A brief dry period Friday night will be followed by a wet weekend as low pressure returns.
However, the upper trough is progged to move slightly farther east, which should bring the rain currently over North Texas into East Texas and possibly farther east into the CWA. /issued 715 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ The broad upper level closed low will remain parked over Cntrl TX during the next 24 hours. with mid/upper level dry slotting wrapping around the ern periphery of the low having tapered much of the -SHRA and embedded -TSRA across the region. However, rainfall coverage across the Arklatex has been gradually diminishing with the highest rainfall rates around a quarter to a half an inch per hour over the Kisatchie Forests in West Central Louisiana at this time.
A large slow moving upper trough continues to meander across the Texas Hill Country, bringing waves of heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of the Southern Plains. Weak upper ridging resides from the southern and central Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic, as Tropical Depression Bonnie lingers just off the North Carolina coast. Abundant low level moisture content and modest upper ridging should make for a fairly mild night with lows in the low to mid 70s. Mid level heights may increase slightly as the upper ridge intensifies. This may result in afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than today, and it would not be out of the question for a couple of locations to reach the mid 90s. This activity again looks to converge somewhere over the interior peninsula and shift westward into the night within the low level easterly flow.
813 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Cooler and drier air settles across the region through Friday night.
Ongoing widespread convection should gradually contract nearer the center of the upper low over N TX overnight. /ISSUED 243 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ Upper low has finally made its way into Texas, leading to more widespread rains, some of it locally heavy per expectations in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary front, spreading into parts of southeast Oklahoma.
A warm front boundary should make its way into southwestern Wisconsin by Friday morning. Onshore lake breeze setting up again by late morning/early afternoon, aided by increasing southerly gradient as high moves slowly east and low pressure approaches.
However, WV satellite imagery and RAP analysis show additional areas of cyclonic vorticity that will be rotating around the upper level low and through the region during the overnight hours. Will make some minor adjustments to reflect the lower temperatures across this region over the next several hours.
Light northeasterly surface and H8 winds overnight will help maintain dewpoints and with the prospects of the mid/high level moisture moving east as the upper low slowly drifts deeper into the state have added patchy fog to the forecast. Kept forecast highs close to warmer side of guidance based on recent day's trends.
Cold front currently nearing KCMH- KCVG line. However kept mostly chance pops going all night with the cold front sinking in and stalling. Overall pattern has an upper level trough digging sharply south over IT and will slowly move eastward.
The upper low over North Texas will continue to slowly meander eastward and keep conditions primed for thunderstorm development. Moisture was also quite plentiful at 700 mb with the low extending up to 700 mb and looks nearly vertically stacked. The position of upper low was further west and located over west- central Texas with upper level winds still splitting over deep south and east Texas. Conditions just look too favorable to ignore so will maintain the Flash Flood Watch and the high PoPs.
(Issued 359 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016) Multi-spectral satellite and regional radar imagery this afternoon indicate the presence of a closed upr trough located over central/eastern TX and a swath of deeper moisture and convection stretching northeastward across portions of the TN Valley. However, the high freezing and WBZ levels have helped to prevent any large hail aloft from reaching the surface. However, the low-level streamline convergent axis is likely to remain in the area, but drift slowly southward.
An upper level trough will then develop over the region this weekend. providing a period of unsettled and cooler weather.
With fair skies and light winds tonight, with high pressure nearby, sided toward the cooler MET lows ranging from mid-upper 50s central IL and lower 60s south of I-70. High pressure ridge over the area will slowly shift east Friday as a upper level trough and associated frontal system moves across the northern tier of the US.
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
As the upper low continues to spin over TX tonight, we may see showers continue to pass through the CWA with only some isolated thunder expected through the night. Afternoon convection today has been a bit more widespread thanks in part to increasing moisture over the region as well as closer proximity to the upper low/trough located across northern Texas. Another round of showers and storms will occur tomorrow as the upper low/trough will continue to sit to our west.
Sct shra/tsra are once again possible during the afternoon hrs, as a weak cold front settles into the area.
Upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest will result in warm and dry weather across north central and northeastern Colorado over the next couple of days.
903 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 The latest surface analysis shows a stationary front lingering along far SE Illinois/Indiana border, with high pressure across the remainder of Illinois and extending into Wisconsin. With fair skies and light winds tonight, with high pressure nearby, sided toward the cooler MET lows ranging from mid-upper 50s central IL and lower 60s south of I-70. High pressure ridge over the area will slowly shift east Friday as a upper level trough and associated frontal system moves across the northern tier of the US.
a warm front is draped NW to SE across South Dakota with dew points in the 50s south of the front. The warm front should continue lifting northward through this afternoon and will eventually be a focal point for convective development. Storms should develop over eastern Montana within the next hour or two as an upper level trough spreads across the region. The storms will then track E-SE across the CWA along the warm front. Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon along a cold front.
Am planning on a dry night as most guidance indicates that a short wave ridge aloft will build over the area. The ridge will quickly push east Friday morning as a larger northern stream trough begins to impact the region. As the main upper trough approaches Friday night, convective activity will be on the increase with the best coverage expected over southern Illinois.
There is shallow resistance to buoyancy at the low levels, but we remain conditionally unstable, unsurprisingly. On this date in Key West Weather History, in 1932 the low temperature fell 65 degrees.
Raised rain chances a bit for this feature, which should progress east and north on Friday as warm frontal structure becomes more pronounced. So how does the severe weather threat materialize? We will have to watch storms along warm front as it lifts northeast Friday afternoon, along with progression of 60+ deg F surface dew points ahead of cold front into Minnesota.
A warming and drying trend is in play through Friday as high pressure builds over the region. Showers and storms will mainly be over the higher terrain through Friday and not as numerous as earlier this week. Daytime temperatures will be above normal Friday as many western and central New Mexico locales see the highest temperatures so far this year.
811 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front in eastern ohio will move east of the area early this evening.
The upper level low pressure center will remain nearly stationary over Texas while the weak surface boundary meanders around Southeast Missouri into northern portions of the CWA. Depending on lingering cloud cover from convection, temperatures will range from the lower 80s to possibly upper 80s.
It is this low that will bring storms to the region in later periods but will not impact the state much tonight. A warm front will extend from the low into Northern Iowa.
Meanwhile out west radar imagery shows additional conv firing up over the higher terrain of Mexico with movement generally to the east and southeast. Further to the north of the RGV the 500 mb low that is bringing the widespread flooding to the rest of the state will not be in a hurry to exit the state with the short term model guidance showing this low staying nearly stationary or sliding slowly south closer to the region. the models disagree on the overall pop alignment with the ECMWF being the big outlier maintaining the highest pops earlier in the forecast period then trending much drier.
Low level southeast flow around the Atlantic ridge may allow a shower or two to brush the Martin/St Lucie county coast overnight so will keep a low coastal shower chance in the forecast for srn coastal sections. Lows mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
929 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front in eastern ohio will move east of the area early this evening.
624 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 The upper low was nearing Hondo at 6 pm, and should continue meandering slowly eastward.
The main focus for tonight into Friday will be the development of a rapidly strengthening low pressure system across the Northland. At this point, it still appears our greatest likelihood for severe weather in our CWA will be across the south, closer to the warm front and the greatest instability and shear.
Upper low down over Texas continues to feed minor short waves in this direction and with troposphere already juiced up won[t take much to crank up convection.
An upper level low that is current very slowly pushing east across Texas will send energy north towards the area tonight into the day Friday.
A ridge of high pressure will maintain very warm and dry conditions across inland areas through Friday.
Thus, have confined the highest PoPs in the short term to basically along and north of the I-20 corridor.
A weak upper level short wave trough currently located over central Montana will move into western North Dakota this afternoon, sparking widespread showers and thunderstorms. At the surface a cold front extends from low pressure over Saskatchewan into central Montana, with a warm front axis draped northwest to southeast from eastern Montana in south central South Dakota. This warm front is forecast to lift north as a new area of low pressure forms over central South Dakota. Expect this warm front to be the focus of convective development ahead of the advancing cold front this afternoon and into the overnight hours. As the low moves east on Friday, some wrap around showers and thunderstorms will be possible with gusty northwest winds developing in the west.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 90 70 86 / 40 40 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 86 67 85 / 40 50 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 67 86 67 85 / 40 50 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 84 64 85 / 70 50 40 50.
Good model agreement and consensus will remove any chance of precip for northeast Montana by early Friday morning with the quick advance of a strong building upper-level ridge from the west.
The upper low continues to rotate over Tx and bring upper energy into Ar. Latest model runs do have the Tx upper low drifting back to the southwest, but still sending upper energy into Ar.
Forecast on track for less cloud cover and warmer temps for tomorrow as high pressure ridge slowly builds eastward across MT.
This system brings an associated cold frontal boundary south onto the Central Plains Friday with chances for thunderstorms returning primarily during the afternoon and evening time frames.
/Issued 416 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ Slow moving upper level low has made it into Texas and is currently spinning near the Big Bend area. That upper level low will continue to meander and drift south over the next few days and a ridge will build across the Southwest. With the proximity of the upper low to the south, mean flow aloft will remain more northeasterly, and will keep the Panhandles dry for the next few days.
Upper low down over Texas continues to feed minor short waves in this direction and with troposphere already juiced up wont take much to crank up convection.
Although the upper level low is pulling in some dry air aloft the ground and air at the surface is still moist enough that we should see a round of MVFR status develop towards morning which could stick around through the day. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently located over the Southern Edwards plateau and Rio Grande plains this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front was located roughly along a Del Rio to San Marcos to Georgetown line. The above mentioned upper low is forecast to drift slowly northeast through tonight. We are seeing some dry air wrap around the western periphery of this upper low. For Friday night, the upper low is forecast to reverse course and begin a southward drift.
The cold front this afternoon currently stretches from Ohio back into southern Indiana.
Tonight Through Friday night Upper level low pressure to the southwest of Arkansas will continue to rotate showers and thunderstorms into the forecast area from the south over the next 24 hours or so. The one caveat to that would be nocturnal convection during the overnight hours close to the parent upper low. Maintained some higher PoPs in the southwest tonight and Friday night as the upper low draws closer, though still not terribly high.