Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A line of showers is moving through Middle Tennessee ahead of a cold front. Instability is limited but dew points are in the lower 60s in the southernmost counties near Chattanooga. Strong winds will decrease around sunset for the higher elevations of East Tennessee. Rain will be moving out this evening as a cold front moves through. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 60 45 59 47 / 30 30 90 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 59 45 56 46 / 40 20 90 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 37 59 44 57 45 / 30 10 90 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 57 43 54 44 / 50 10 90 80 30 NC.
A line of showers is moving through Middle Tennessee ahead of a cold front. Instability is limited but dew points are in the lower 60s in the southernmost counties near Chattanooga. Strong winds will decrease around sunset for the higher elevations of East Tennessee. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 39 60 45 59 / 90 30 30 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 39 59 45 56 / 90 40 20 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 37 59 44 57 / 90 30 10 90 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 38 57 43 54 / 90 50 10 90 80 NC.
Rain will be moving out this evening as a cold front moves through the region. Discussion: Rain will come to an end this evening as a cold front moves through and surface winds become northwesterly. In the upper levels, southwesterly flow will continue with a ridge over Florida. High pressure will be over the region tonight through tomorrow morning with northerly winds at the surface. With southwesterly upper level flow and overrunning moisture some showers may start to creep into the southern counties of the region late tomorrow afternoon or early evening as a warm front develops. Highs tomorrow will be much cooler in the mid 50s, which is slightly below normal for most of the region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The much anticipated cold front ended up pushing south of the Rio Grande around 12:30 PM this afternoon. Temperatures have rapidly fallen since the frontal passage, with widespread temperatures currently in the low-mid 50s across the district. Temps will continue to gradually fall int the 40s this evening and overnight, but thick cloud cover and light precipitation will likely maintain (low) temperatures generally in the low-mid 40s tonight. This clearing may help warm temperatures into the lower 60s for portions of Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg Counties. Otherwise, high temperatures will only warm into the low-mid 50s tomorrow.
151 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface remains in place over the region. More robust showers and thunderstorms are developing closer to an approaching cold front over Georgia and Alabama but these should mostly remain outside the forecast area until late in the day. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s north and west to the lower 60s south and east.
Pattern/Synopsis: General longwave troughing extends from south central Canada into the desert southwest. Better chances down by Manistee with a bit better lapse rates off the slightly warmer water. There's also a chance that some of these snow showers could make it into the higher terrain, given just enough barely open water north of the tip of Leelanau. Short wave ridging brings milder and precipitation free conditions. Highs ranging from the low 30s north to upper 30s south.
303 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 The cold front pushed off to the east earlier today, as seen by surface observation, leaving behind cloudy and cooler conditions across the area. Winds will also continue to gust to around 25 to 30 mph under a jet associated with the low exiting off to the NE. The high will track through the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the short term period, providing calm and variable winds for tomorrow.
Colder air that is felt incoming will assert itself more completely thereafter, as high pressure builds across the Mid Mississippi River Valley tonight.
137 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Sharp upper level ridging extends from the Yucatan peninsula northeastward across southern Florida and then further toward Bermuda. The upper ridge shifts southward by mid week as weak upper troughing moves eastward. As the ridge settles farther south, a frontal boundary will settle in over northern Florida on Tuesday.
High pressure to our south has kept today quiet and sunny in the Northland with very normal temperatures for this time of year in the 20s and low 30s. A cold front will drape over MN and push east through the day tomorrow, bringing with it some gusty WNW winds.
High pressure influence will keep weather abundantly quiet and skies clear.
Any lingering showers in our southeast that persist behind the cold front will end this evening. High pressure will remain well north of the area at the surface shifting east along the OH river valley on Tuesday.
The next active weather period begins Tuesday as the next trough approaches the area.
1035 AM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Surface observations show that the cold front has reached the eastern edge of the forecast area. Heavy rain will remain a threat with the high moisture levels, especially south where training of heavier storms may occur. Broad upper troughing will continue early in the extended.
Rain and possible thunder chances will be elevated this evening and overnight, with the best chances expected in the Lower Keys and across our southwestern waters. Thereafter, model guidance is struggling to agree where the weakening ridge will be positioned as a stout north to south gradient in moisture will determine our rain chances for the remainder of the week. The GFS is still trending towards the ridge remaining more north, which will result in enhanced boundary layer moisture, whereas the ECMWF prefers to keep the ridge positioned more south, limiting rain changes. Temperatures and dew points are expected to remain above normal for the remainder of the week as the decent veering profile will help moderate temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
250 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 A short wave trough will approach the area on Tuesday morning and pass overhead during the afternoon hours. Large scale lift will increase during the morning hours as the trough axis approaches the area. Subsidence will then swing overhead during the afternoon hours as the trough axis passes through the region. Weak lee troughing will develop in eastern New Mexico on Tuesday afternoon swinging surface winds around to the southwest but speeds will be light.
1058 AM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 Subsidence behind the departing upper trough will lead to mostly sunny and breezy weather today. Temperatures will be a little warmer, with afternoon highs mainly in the 30s. An upper trough and associated surface cold front will move southward across the forecast area later tonight into early Tuesday. Enhanced lift and marginal moisture may result in a period of light snow with the passage of the cold front.
Enough deep- layer shear is present (Effective Bulk 35 knots or so) into support storm organization, but low-level flow is expected to continue weakening/veering as the primary upper trough moves northeastward and away from the Southeast. Showers and storms should diminish in coverage this evening and overnight as we lose what instability we have and the trough axis shifts east of the area.
High pressure ridging settles across central FL today/tonight while on a gradual weakening trend as a frontal boundary approaches and aligns across the FL Panhandle by sunrise Tue morning.
(This evening through Tuesday) A short wave trough will track east across the Southern Rockies tonight and weaken as it moves across the area tomorrow.
As temperature increase into the lower to mid 80s, speed convergence continues to diminish across our coastal waters, and a potential cuban shadow is introduced, decaying shower activity is expected for the remainder of the day. High pressure continues to move east into the central Atlantic, allowing for a continual slackening of winds this morning across our Keys coastal waters.
Northern portions of the forecast area appear most likely to see less cloud cover, and as such, trended cooler than NBM guidance primarily for areas north of Highway 412.
255 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 18z data has Canadian high pressure over the Plains while a storm system moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Quiet conditions will be seen tonight and Tuesday as high pressure as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
258 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Zonal flow aloft and ridging at the surface brings a nice break to the fairly active weather pattern we have experienced over the past few days.
The cold front has pushed well to the east and cooler air is filtering in on brisk NW winds. As a result temps should remain mostly above freezing overnight with steady NE winds of near 10 mph.
345 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Colder air will be ushered into the region in the wake of a strong cold front overnight. High pressure will build across the area Tuesday offering dry weather and below normal temperatures.
Surface observations show that the cold front has reached the eastern edge of the forecast area. Heavy rain will remain a threat with the high moisture levels, especially south where training of heavier storms may occur. Broad upper troughing will continue early in the extended.
157 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 A cold front will move southward through the region tonight, bringing with it colder air and widespread snow.
Freezing drizzle has not materialized across the area with the loss of mid level moisture associated with the dry slot. In the wake of this storm, zonal west to east flow will set up across the Mid Mississippi River Valley as high pressure moves from Kansas into central Missouri by the end of the period. There will be little change in the temperatures today with highs in the lower 30s across the area.
Temperatures across the west and central should feel much warmer than in previous days, but overall highs are around normal for this time of year or just slightly above normal. The best synoptic lift will remain well north of the International Border, but some snow showers should develop along and behind the cold front, given cyclonic flow aloft and lift from the boundary. It should be windy across all of western and central North Dakota, but the strongest winds will generally be east of the Highway 83 corridor where gusts to 50 mph are possible.
This moisture combined with an upper-level trough overhead has provided enough support to produce light snow showers and flurries across much of the forecast area this afternoon. The northwest winds will gradually back west and decrease into this evening as surface ridging builds into the area causing the clouds to dissipate and put an end to any flurries. The surface ridging will quickly exit the region Tuesday morning and cause surface winds to back southwest. Skies will remain sunny throughout Tuesday until a cold front approaches the forecast area from the northwest towards Tuesday evening. Although high temperatures will be slightly warmer than Monday, readings will be right around normal ranging from the middle 30s to low 40s. Tuesday Night Through Monday A cold front is expected to move through the region Tuesday night.
Given the current dew point trends and increasing cloud cover, temperatures should be expected to fall steadily but slowly through the night with temperatures expected to range from the mid 30s in far SE OK to the lower to mid 20s across NE OK and far NW AR by morning.
656 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Colder air will be ushered into the region in the wake of a strong cold front overnight. High pressure will build across the area Tuesday offering dry weather and below normal temperatures.
944 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Surface analysis this evening shows strong high pressure in place over eastern KS and western MO. Models continue to suggest saturation within the lower levels through the night. The cold front pushed off to the east earlier today, as seen by surface observation, leaving behind cloudy and cooler conditions across the area. Winds will also continue to gust to around 25 to 30 mph under a jet associated with the low exiting off to the NE. The high will track through the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the short term period, providing calm and variable winds for tomorrow.
Despite increasing stability, a thermal trough will hold over the Great Lakes with northwest low-level flow drawing in lake moisture from Lake Michigan through the morning hours. Confluent flow aloft will increase across the Ohio River Valley overnight with subsequent high pressure building in through the day. Return flow from the departing high pressure system will also return temperatures to normal values -- upper 30s to lower 40s for a high on Tuesday.
Slightly warmer lows in the lower 20s are forecast for Tuesday night given the milder air mass and an increase in mid level cloud in advance of the next upper level storm system.
527 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 The high pressure system over the area earlier today is shifting off towards the southeast.
933 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 High pressure will build across the area Tuesday, offering dry weather and below normal temperatures.
/issued 250 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022/ A short wave trough will approach the area on Tuesday morning and pass overhead during the afternoon hours. Large scale lift will increase during the morning hours as the trough axis approaches the area. Subsidence will then swing overhead during the afternoon hours as the trough axis passes through the region. Weak lee troughing will develop in eastern New Mexico on Tuesday afternoon swinging surface winds around to the southwest but speeds will be light.
The cold front pushed off to the east earlier today, as seen by surface observation, leaving behind cloudy and cooler conditions across the area. Winds will also continue to gust to around 25 to 30 mph under a jet associated with the low exiting off to the NE. The high will track through the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the short term period, providing calm and variable winds for tomorrow.
Cold front just moved through the Plateau over the past hour. Colder with lows near freezing tonight.
Cold front is currently moving into the upstate of SC and through central Ga this evening. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s north and west to the lower 60s south and east.
Lingering snow shower activity should wrap up late Tuesday morning as high pressure builds and backs wind to w and sw. As high pressure skirts to the east, warm air is expected to advance into the region as winds shift from the southwest Tuesday night; temps will linger a few degrees above the climatological average.
Overall, not expecting much accumulation from these showers, especially west where surface temperatures are near or above freezing. Temperatures across the west and central should feel much warmer than in previous days, but overall highs are around normal for this time of year or just slightly above normal. The best synoptic lift will remain well north of the International Border, but some snow showers should develop along and behind the cold front, given cyclonic flow aloft and lift from the boundary. It should be windy across all of western and central North Dakota, but the strongest winds will generally be east of the Highway 83 corridor where gusts to 50 mph are possible.
The high pressure system over the area earlier today is shifting off towards the southeast.
At the surface, high pressure extends from western Nebraska into northwest TX. There is an overall model consensus that the highest snow totals with this system will be north of I-70, but there has been a slight southward shift over the last run or two, especially with the GFS and CMC. This won't be your classic deep upper low type of snow event but will be generated through strong mid level frontogenesis along with some decent instability. So highs on Fri won't make it above freezing for the northern half of the forecast area. For the next few days fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side. This will keep the fire danger on the lower side.
At the surface, high pressure extends from western Nebraska into northwest TX. There is an overall model consensus that the highest snow totals with this system will be north of I-70, but there has been a slight southward shift over the last run or two, especially with the GFS and CMC. This won't be your classic deep upper low type of snow event but will be generated through strong mid level frontogenesis along with some decent instability. So highs on Fri won't make it above freezing for the northern half of the forecast area. KED For the next few days fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side. This will keep the fire danger on the lower side.
A cold front will move southward through the region tonight, bringing with it colder air and widespread snow.
Similar set up heading into Tuesday with and warmer than average temperatures and inland areas expected to have higher rain chances compared to coastal areas. Mostly VFR conditions will then hold on Tuesday, although more showers will be possible from late morning through the afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior.
545 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 A strong cold front has pushed through leaving colder temperatures in place across central Illinois. Temperatures will bottom out in the 20s tonight then warm into the lower to mid 40s Tuesday.
402 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 Current surface map places trof across eastern Montana into western South Dakota with cold front about to drop into northern Montana. with cold front dropping through the forecast area tonight/early Tuesday. NBM probability of >2" of snow is 70% or greater along and south of a line from Wright-Hill City-Pine Ridge with just a small area of >4" over the southern Black Hills.
204 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 Current surface map places trof across eastern Montana into western South Dakota with cold front about to drop into northern Montana. with cold front dropping through the forecast area tonight/early Tuesday. NBM probability of >2" of snow is 70% or greater along and south of a line from Wright-Hill City-Pine Ridge with just a small area of >4" over the southern Black Hills.
548 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Zonal flow aloft and ridging at the surface brings a nice break to the fairly active weather pattern we have experienced over the past few days.
256 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 Cold front moves through the area this afternoon bringing brief rain and snow chances through tonight. Upper level ridge moves in by the weekend and temperatures will make a recovery closer to seasonal averages.
207 PM PST Mon Mar 7 2022 Dry and warmer conditions will prevail through Tuesday with gusty Santa Ana winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains.
18z data has Canadian high pressure over the Plains while a storm system moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Quiet conditions will be seen tonight and Tuesday as high pressure as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
Weakening ridge axis slides south/east away from the area with quasi-stationary surface boundary along the FL/GA border.
515 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Colder air will be ushered into the region in the wake of a strong cold front overnight. High pressure will build across the area Tuesday offering dry weather and below normal temperatures.
837 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 A cold front will move southward through the region tonight, bringing with it colder air and widespread snow.
At the surface, high pressure extends from western Nebraska into northwest TX. There is an overall model consensus that the highest snow totals with this system will be north of I-70, but there has been a slight southward shift over the last run or two, especially with the GFS and CMC. This won't be your classic deep upper low type of snow event but will be generated through strong mid level frontogenesis along with some decent instability. So highs on Fri won't make it above freezing for the northern half of the forecast area. An upper level trof will move into the area with an increase in mid and high cloudiness. KED For the next few days fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side. This will keep the fire danger on the lower side.
Cold front is currently moving into the western Midlands. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s north and west to the lower 60s south and east.
Upper level analysis shows an upper level low centered over Lake Winnipeg in south central Manitoba, with its associated clipper low stacked underneath. A cold front attendant to this low currently runs through the middle of the forecast area, approximately along a line from Carrington to Hettinger. Winds diminish to around 10 kts heading into the overnight hours as high pressure builds in, allowing temperatures to fall around 5 below to 5 above zero across the state.
251 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 High pressure is centered over southern Iowa and northern Missouri early this morning.
The cold front at 2am extended from the northwest corner of MN back into northwest SoDak. Temperatures remained in the mid/upper 30s overnight in NoDak ahead of the cold front, so expect temperatures to quickly rise this morning ahead of the front, but then head sideways in the afternoon as we get into the CAA behind the front. James to Ladysmith line to make a run into the low 40s.
Updating the forecast a little earlier than usual due to the rapid drop in temperatures we are seeing behind the cold front passage. One of the challenges tonight will be how quickly clouds erode, and the effects of the terrain on downslope (Plateau) and blocking low level moisture (Appalachians) in the NW flow regime. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 46 58 45 62 / 30 90 50 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 45 55 45 61 / 0 90 70 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 55 44 56 42 60 / 0 90 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 44 54 43 61 / 0 90 80 20 10.
918 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 A strong cold front has pushed through leaving colder temperatures in place across central Illinois. Temperatures will bottom out in the 20s tonight then warm into the lower to mid 40s Tuesday.
With more clouds and winds holding up, lows were adjusted to the latest guidance and the general result was a tad warmer values. Additionally, with more cloud cover and precip spreading over the region in the cooler more stable air, temps won't warm as much on Tuesday.
958 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 Current surface map places trof across eastern Montana into western South Dakota with cold front about to drop into northern Montana. with cold front dropping through the forecast area tonight/early Tuesday. NBM probability of >2" of snow is 70% or greater along and south of a line from Wright-Hill City-Pine Ridge with just a small area of >4" over the southern Black Hills.
235 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 Yesterday/s cold front passage has left us with seasonably chilly temps in the 30s and widespread post-frontal cloud cover. The low clouds may develop some breaks later this morning and early afternoon, but any peeks of sunshine will be short-lived as the next system approaches from the Lower Ms Valley.
The higher confidence bet is a tight gradient ensures only clouds farther south of Garden City to the State line with OK. Slightly warmer lows in the lower 20s are forecast for Tuesday night given the milder air mass and an increase in mid level cloud in advance of the next upper level storm system.
339 AM EST Tue Mar 8 2022 High pressure builds across the region today.
Even with the low clouds clearing in the afternoon, there will still only be filtered sunlight at best due to rapidly incoming upper sky cover ahead of the next system. With temperatures only starting out in the low to mid 30s today, it is tough to see where too great of a diurnal range given the cloud cover and no notable advection component. As a result, think most places will stay confined to the upper 40s, with perhaps a few spots reaching the lower 50s.
233 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 Key Messages: - Cold frontal passage later today may bring brief snow showers with little to no accumulations.
Due to the warmer temperatures, have also increased snow levels to GFS/ECMWF levels which should give Wenatchee and Leavenworth mainly rain through Tuesday afternoon for precipitation that does fall. JW 06Z TAFS: A cold front from the north will result in west- southwest winds becoming north-northeast over most of the Inland NW Tuesday morning.