Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1159 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the region this evening.
The cold front is poised to sweep across the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 42 65 43 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 40 65 43 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 38 62 39 / 50 10 0 10.
/issued 333 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016/ A cold front will continue to make its way south into north Texas this morning. The airmass in the wake of the cold front will be rather cool by mid-May standards.
Latest available satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 800 am depicts low amplitude troughing across the Eastern CONUS as well as the Bahamas,South Florida,Western Cuba and the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery delineates deep dry air embedded within the cyclonic flow on the southern flank of this trough across the Florida Peninsula. Closer to the Keys a week front/trough has stalled across Northern Florida. The lower to mid troposphere was somewhat moist with PWAT at about 1. At the surface, bifurcated surface ridging will remain nearby, with a meso-high indicated to be across the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the day. Given that the latest available model forecast soundings are not that dry in the lower to mid troposphere,forecasted between 1. the low temperature in Key West was 65 degrees.
1240 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A strengthening low pressure system moving northeast across the Great Lakes today will cause unseasonably cool temperatures with brisk northwest winds and a chance of showers across our area. High pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday providing dry conditions. Mid/Upper level trough moving through combined with steep low level lapse rates and weak shallow instability have been sufficient for some isolated/scattered showers this morning/early afternoon. A few isolated instances of some graupel/small hail are possible given near sfc instability and low freezing levels, but will refrain from adding this to the forecast at this time. Weak WAA expected to dvlp Sunday as low level thermal trof moves to the NErn CONUS. This and more sunshine should result in slightly warmer highs in the generally in the l-m50s.
1050 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Ridging centered over the Great Basin will be shifting east today with ridge axis positioned over western Colorado by this evening. Slight increase in mid-level moisture this afternoon will lead to a few more cu/tcu and possibly a shower or two over the higher peaks after 3 pm MDT.
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Mixing and some patchy low clouds have allowed for temperatures to stall in the low to mid 30s most of the night. The high pressure system responsible for all this will dominate conditions today, however a northwest flow wave will also bring in some additional cloud cover, which will suppress warming. We will see weak warm advection above the inversion, but past experience suggests that the James Valley in particular has the best opportunity to drop below freezing again tonight. An upper ridge will continue to build through the week helping to bring a warming trend.
The latest upper analysis shows a broad upper low over Ontario with an upper ridge over the western CONUS. The early morning sfc charts show high pressure centered over northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and into the upper 20s to lower 30s western South Dakota. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday but high temps will still be 10 to 15F below average. Sunday will a few degrees warmer than today yet still cooler than average.
1145 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Rain showers will be ending and it will be breezy, much cooler today with unsettled weather throughout weekend. The latest hrrr does suggest that a second line of showers will develop immediately behind this first line as the cold front lags behind, continuing high pops until later this afternoon. 850mb temperatures bottoming out in the -3 to -5 celsius range will fuel very steep low-level lapse rates as the passing upper-level trough axis provides the impetus for shower development Sunday afternoon. With freezing levels so low, and a relatively dry boundary layer, graupel production seems probable in stronger showers. This will bring a clearing trend to the sky cover overnight and may decouple the boundary layer over the lowland counties.
A cold front will move through the terminals over the next few hours.
Sub freezing temperatures are expected across central lower Michigan tonight. Convective showers will continue into the afternoon as upper trough axis moves through. Min temps should generally bottom out in the lower 30's near to south of I-96 tonight where some boundary layer mixing and scattered cloud cover will mitigate frost potential. However scattered rain showers will redevelop later today due to instability from some diurnal heating and with the pool of cold air aloft associated with the upper trof axis overhead. Temps will continue to average well below normal and only reach the lower 50's Sunday.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: High pressure will bring a relief from the recent heavy rainfall that has occurred across much of northeast Montana into the weekend.
Strong northeasterly winds behind a cold front will diminish by the afternoon. /issued 437 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016/ Moist air was being replaced by cool and dry surface ridging behind a cold front currently moving through the region. This will continue to advect in cooler and drier air near the surface through the day. The upper ridge over the area will flatten today and tonight in response to a closed low moving onshore in Oregon. And that begins with a series of ripples over the flattened ridge Sunday and Sunday night expected to lead to decent shower and thunder chances as moist isentropic lift develops.
901 AM PDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A low pressure trough moving over the Pacific Northwest today and then into the northern Rockies Sunday will create a deepening marine layer, strong and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts, and night and morning clouds and patchy drizzle over the coast, valleys, passes and lower mountain slopes, with only partial clearing during the day.
Plentiful sunshine this morning raised temps into the lower 70s but cloud cover is starting to enter NW AL and southern middle TN and it is associated with a cold front. The front will not bring any precip today however it will make our daytime highs in the lower 70s occur in the next few hours. JMS /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016/ For 12Z TAFs: A cold front is approaching from the NW and will bring a few hours of bkn 3kft cigs this morning.
1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A cold front moved through the region last night, bringing a much cooler and drier air mass into MO/IL. A ridge of high pressure will continue building into the plains today, bringing quiet wx conditions to the region. Highs on Sunday should be about 10 degrees warmer than they will have been on Saturday.
While I think clouds will probably continue to hug the higher terrain through the day, I suspect we will get enough mixing to see some breaks of sun in the afternoon around billings. A circulation currently positioned off the Pacific Northwest coast is nudging a short wave ridge across the Treasure State. The lower heights will keep surface temps below normal today, mainly in the mid to upper 50s. By later today, the ridging will begin to give way to the aforementioned trough. The beginning of the week will start out fairly wet over zones west of a Sheridan to Billings to Roundup line as an upper level low moves through the Central Rockies southwest of the area. Cool and moist easterly flow, combined with weak diffluence aloft will give good chances for low elevation rain and some snow in the high elevations.
1056 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Rain showers will be ending and it will be breezy, much cooler today with unsettled weather throughout weekend. The latest hrrr does suggest that a second line of showers will develop immediately behind this first line as the cold front lags behind, continuing high pops until later this afternoon. 850mb temperatures bottoming out in the -3 to -5 celsius range will fuel very steep low-level lapse rates as the passing upper-level trough axis provides the impetus for shower development Sunday afternoon. With freezing levels so low, and a relatively dry boundary layer, graupel production seems probable in stronger showers. This will bring a clearing trend to the sky cover overnight and may decouple the boundary layer over the lowland counties.
With these mostly clear skies, light west winds and dry air, min temps will be a little "cooler" in the lower to mid 60s.
An upper level trough and onshore flow will result in increasing clouds, showers, and cooler conditions today and Sunday.
552 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016 The latest upper analysis shows a broad upper low over Ontario with an upper ridge over the western CONUS. The early morning sfc charts show high pressure centered over northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and into the upper 20s to lower 30s western South Dakota. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday but high temps will still be 10 to 15F below average. Sunday will a few degrees warmer than today yet still cooler than average.
918 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Temperatures this morning have already risen into the low to mid 40s across the region. but mid-level fgen remains as weak transitory ridging expands from the west.
/issued 437 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016/ Moist air was being replaced by cool and dry surface ridging behind a cold front currently moving through the region. This will continue to advect in cooler and drier air near the surface through the day. The upper ridge over the area will flatten today and tonight in response to a closed low moving onshore in Oregon. And that begins with a series of ripples over the flattened ridge Sunday and Sunday night expected to lead to decent shower and thunder chances as moist isentropic lift develops.
1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Cold front has now moved into deep East Texas and NW Louisiana at SHV as of 16Z. Most of the convection associated with the boundary has been confined to our far western zones in East Texas near TYR and have raised pops into the high chance category over these areas for the remainder of the morning and should see a gradual decrease through the afternoon although some additional isolated activity is still possible as far east as Toledo Bend Country and into far western Louisiana as the front continues to progress eastward. /issued / For the ArkLaTex the cold front approaching has Tstms near KTYR and later near KLFK with some upper support in West TX moving East.
With an overall stacked ridge on top of the area, Fall is the last thing you will think about today.
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
Basically a persistence forecast with ever stronger ridging at the surface and aloft. Dewpoints are being massaged to the low end given decent dry air mix-down potential, and that will keep humidity levels low enough that the heat index will be just below the actual temp.
Low level trough extending from the mid Atlantic coast into north Florida will weaken but southwest steering flow will persist. The models continue to show highest moisture across the south half of the area as some drier air aloft has spread down into northern sections on back side of the mid-upper trough. At the surface, weak high pressure encompasses much of the Gulf Coast States with a very weak pressure gradient across ECFL. The highest chance for afternoon/evening storms looks to be southward from KMCO-KTIX.
143 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
An upper low continues to sit along the Carolina coast today and will slowly drift northward later today.
Chances for measurable precipitation remain low, but based on the location of the low drifting SSW down the South Carolina coast the chances seem to merit at least a slight chance in portions of East Central Georgia. There may be ample lift across the higher elevations helping to initiate precip, but it should be minimal. By the weekend, feel this boundary will wash out enough to have High pressure from the north dominate the sensible weather.
234 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016 A deep low pressure system is located near the Oregon/California border this morning. Over the next 48 hours, this low will slowly march into and through southern Idaho.
Southerly low-level flow between an area of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and low pressure centered over the central Plains will persist, with flat ridging building in aloft. As an overview, the forecast remains warm through the weekend as a ridge keeps control over our area. An upper low moving into the west coast is resulting in increasingly southwesterly flow aloft, and this is expected to continue through the first half of the weekend. The issues with the forecast are centered on the low/trof as it moves across the country.
Forecast soundings for today look stable and very warm, with H850 temps in the 14-16C degree range and H925 temps in the low 20s, as we reside on the south side of the frontal boundary stalled over northern Michigan and Lake Huron. Did not go with forecast temps quite as high as MET guidance with potential for high clouds, but forecast temps are now in the low 80s for the Thumb and Saginaw Valley ranging to the mid/upper 80s for the rest of the area.
The upper trough will approach on Fri with the main low center ejecting to the northeast. The trough axis is progged to pass Fri evening with a secondary lobe keeping energy over the area through Sat as the low center slowly moves into the northern plains. The north will be favored for precipitation, and much cooler temperatures are expected area-wide. the lowest so far this season.
There is an upper level ridge that drifts to the east over the area. The ridge keeps the energy to the north of the area. A ridge of high pressure will build across the Mississippi river valley as a trough of low pressure deepens across the intermountain west. Expect the aforementioned upper level low to lift northeast over the ridge over the upcoming weekend.
The one positive aspect is that we'll see more in the way of mid level ridging as a short wave exits early today. That sfc front will eventually push south tonight as sfc ridging pushes south across the Great Lakes. The main flooding concerns remain across Sauk, Marquette and Columbia county where rainfall amounts have been the highest over the last few days.
An upper level ridge will build over the area ahead of strong upper level system moving into the western CONUS. The upper ridge will shift off to the east as the very slowly progressive western trough begins to move from the Rockies into the High Plains late Fri night into Sat. Most guidance in one form another is splitting the western longwave trough into northern and southern cutoff lows. A slow moving or stalling front over or near our area is indicated by the GFS and Canadian while the ops ECMWF is more progressive with the northern portion of the trough with overall less precip.
144 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
333 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Persistent upper-level ridge remains centered across the Red River Valley this morning with broad west-southwest flow prevailing over the Central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.
305 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Upper level ridge continues to impact the region, bringing dry conditions and clear skies. Temperatures have remained very consistent across the mid state with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in the low to mid 60s. Today and Friday look to keep similar temperatures across the area, however for the weekend the upper level ridge axis will cross the MS River Valley and this may bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area.
A key component in our precipitation chances is the western upper trough clearly seen this morning in the water vapor imagery. In doing so, the front will sag south through the Great Lakes allowing high pressure to build in into the weekend. The low level jet and high instability will refocus well west of the area as well, out in the plains states.
Weak upper trough remains over the southeastern states.
116 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep or weather warm and dry into the weekend. Late Friday, and Friday night, a mid-level trough will swing through New England, and push a frontal boundary south across the Upper Ohio Valley.
Latest 21/12Z model and probabilistic data continues to show a deepening upper level trough developing near the Four Corners region Friday morning helping to develop a lee cyclone east of the central Rockies.
438 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
546 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
Today Through Friday Night The upper level pattern will begin to amplify greatly over the next 24 hours across the lower 48. An upper low centered over southwest Oregon will strengthen as it shifts inland to northern Utah, with increasing downstream ridging being forecast from the Upper Midwest through the lower Mississippi River Valley. The resulting surface pattern will feature high pressure to the east of Arkansas, maintaining a warm southerly flow pattern across the region.
/issued 233 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ Upper ridging overhead is slightly weaker today and with a few clouds around this afternoon, high temperatures will be roughly a degree or two cooler, except for maybe the Rio Grande Valley locations where highs will reach or exceed 100. The upper ridge will continue to weaken over the area and slowly shift east as a large upper low (now entering the PacNW) digs SE through the western US the next few days. Despite the lowering heights each day, southerly flow at the surface will help keep temperatures above normal through Friday.
145 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Touched up the grids through the rest of the night mainly to fine tune the temperature forecast - capturing the ridge and valley distinctions through dawn. The valleys have dropped off into the low to mid 60s as of 10 pm. Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to control the weather across eastern Kentucky, with very warm sunny days and mild nights. An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the weekend. Models indicate a backdoor cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley late in the weekend, but this stays north of our area. In fact, weak high pressure in place at the surface will provide for plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend.
301 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue for the next few days as high pressure aloft prevails. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase markedly over the weekend as an upper level low currently spinning over southern Oregon moves into the rockies on Friday as the flow becomes increasingly amplified.
325 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Upper level high over Texas will start to feel the pinch of an approaching upper level low which should make its way to the Great Basin by 12Z Friday. a strengthening Pacific Coast ridge will evolve the morphology of the trough axis to be quite compressed from east to west. As we go into Friday morning, the Gulf of Mexico moisture starts to open up in response to decreasing surface pressure along the lee trough.
527 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
The persistent ridge over the area the past week will continue to be in control of the weather for the Tennessee Valley through the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures today will remain cooler across the north where outflow will be south of area with a modified airmass in place.
An inverted trough axis moving through Northern Mexico will act to deepen the moist layer over South TX today. The mid to upper level high pressure axis will pivot and drift east from Central to East TX by Friday morning while the broader upper level ridge shows less movement during this period which should send pwat values back into the 1. Mesoscale models, especially the ARW, suggest enough low to mid level instability to reintroduce rain chances in the predawn hours Friday morning over the Hill Country as an upper trough approaching from the west begins to enhance the nocturnal low level jet. Some slight chance showers are added for after 09z Friday with isolated to scattered deeper airmass convection possible under the weakening ridge during the day.
A trough of low pressure at the surface will be located along the KS/CO border leading to continued southerly winds through tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s along the KS/CO border to around 70 across central and south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into the low to mid 90s. This is due to an upper level low and trough moving into the Rockies.
High pressure remains in control over the MRX forecast area, resulting in another sunny, dry, warm day. An area of low pressure continues to wobble over the Carolinas, with just a very slight chance of a shower or thunderstorms over the eastern higher terrain this afternoon.
Tonight Through Friday Upper low pressure in the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast into the Rockies by Friday afternoon. High pressure centered over Texas will continue over Arkansas.
232 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Weak high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep the area dry through the short term.
/issued 255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ Above-average temperatures will continue through Friday as the Southern Plains remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge. As the ridge shifts to the east, a high-amplitude trough will approach the Plains by late Friday with increasing ascent spreading across the area.
This boundary is forecast to slowly sink south as a cold front today, with continued activity along and south of the boundary.
656 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
Dynamic upper low positioned along the OR/CA border this morning will churn southeastward into central NV today. Moist southerly flow ahead of the low will keep showers and thunderstorms over the west-central Idaho mountains, south through the Western Magic Valley to the ID/NV border. Shower and isolated thunderstorm development will also focus around the upper low center over far southeast Oregon. The low tracks through NV into northern UT overnight, bringing an end to precipitation over southeast Oregon zones by daybreak. The rain will tapper off from west to east across southwest Idaho through the day Friday, with clearing across the lower Snake Plain by afternoon.
Isolated convection may accompany the low, but will not be a burden to the local aerodromes.
259 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows the well advertised closed upper low circulating over southwest Oregon, with the attending trough extending down through western California. A 120kt jet streak was riding down on the back side of the upper low which will continue to dig the upper low/trough through Nevada and Utah. The upper low will become negatively tilted as the jet streak rounds the base of the trough, with a compensatory downstream mid/upper ridge across central/eastern ND through tonight. Some precipiation expected in western ND today and tonight, becoming more widespread Friday and shifting into central ND, as the upper low begins to eject out from Utah toward North Dakota. Mid/upper level ridging will keep central ND dry today with a mix of sun and clouds.