Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure is now centered over the Ohio Valley and extends south to cover most of the southeast states this evening. Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across most of the forecast area except around Chattanooga. VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours as cold arctic high pressure has settled across the Appalachians. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 37 56 41 60 / 0 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 33 54 39 60 / 0 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 50 34 54 39 59 / 0 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 29 52 36 58 / 0 0 10 20 10.
241 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Sprawling high pressure will move to the east of the Commonwealth today and tonight, but will still exert enough influence to keep our weather mainly dry. The passage of a weak cold front could produce a few light rain or snow showers on Sunday.
1056 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure starts to slide off to the east. Looks like even warmer conditions will be seen on Sun.
Meanwhile, GOES water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving east into the Northern Plains this afternoon with an associated surface cold front. This trough/cold front will progress eastward into the area for tomorrow/Saturday. A secondary cold front drops out of Canada Saturday night into Sunday.
A weak cold front and 850 mb trof will push through the area today after 15z providing some lift for cloud development and possible light snow. quiet conditions and above normal temperatures will be seen with lows in the upper teens north of highway 20 to the lower 20s south.
/Issued 327 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ Warming trend continues today ahead of weak cold front which will push into NE OK by late afternoon and lose definition as it moves into western AR tonight.
Winds will turn southerly and increase a bit as the cold Canadian high pressure system shift on off tho the East Coast. A weak surface trof will move through the region tonight/early Sunday.
A weak cold front was pushing south across the Central High Plains overnight as the latest upper level trough axis was moving across the central portion of the country. As a result, the airmass behind this front will actually be a little bit warmer than the remnant cold airmass ahead of it. High pressure ridge at the surface will build in later this afternoon which will linger through the night tonight, but given the warmer temperatures today, the typical 20-25 degree nocturnal fall in temperatures with light winds and a mostly clear sky will result in lows early Sunday morning in the mid 20s most locations. On Sunday, a west-northwest flow pattern aloft will prevail across the Central Plains, and this will induce a renewed leeside trough across eastern Colorado by late in the day.
Cooler today as highs only reach the low to mid 70s, around 70F for the Volusia coast. Another cool night with lows in the upper 50s, except in the low 60s from Melbourne to Port Saint Lucie, and mid 60s in Martin County.
Arctic air returns to the region today following this latest cold front.
Temps will be cooler for Sunday as winds around a weak high pressure are predominantly southeasterly. The period begins with west northwest flow aloft bringing cooler air into the region along with a short wave trough still scheduled to pass over our region.
Moisture will begin to advect back into the Mid-South today as southerly winds resume on the western periphery of the retreating surface anticyclone over the upper OH Valley. This warm advection will result in warmer overnight lows with temperatures generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Winds will turn southerly and increase a bit as the old Canadian high pressure system shift on off tho the East Coast. A weak surface trof will move through the region tonight/early Sunday.
304 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Large area of high pressure has moved east of the Appalachians early this morning which is bringing low-level flow back around from the south today. This will bring temperatures back into the lower 50s for most areas this afternoon which is right around average for this time of year. A very broad upper trough encompassing much of the US will shift eastward on Sunday with the trough axis passing through our area during the afternoon.
Warmer temperatures at lower elevations will lead to a mix or wet accumulating snow. A weak trough may return in the last 24 hours to the central Idaho mountains. The dominating high pressure should allow late night and morning fog at least through Wed night.
Persistent high pressure continues over the area and the month of February is possibly heading into the record books for precipitation futility as of mid month. Current satellite imagery shows a few high clouds drifting south into the Central California Interior as a strong anticyclone to the northwest remains entrenched over the east Pacific.
Low temperatures will be much warmer than the past couple of nights, with mid 40s to mid 50s anticipated.
/issued 350 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ Temperatures early this morning are 10 to 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
413 AM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary east of the area now, with high pressure over south central Canada.
Warmer. Look for warmer temperatures today and tonight, as winds from the south continue.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below A cold front passes across the area today.
644 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Transient high pressure today. Strong cold front mid week. Thereafter, temperatures should level off, except may slowly rise on the hilltops and ridges late. Warming trend despite a weak cold front that will present brief shower activity across the region Sunday/Sunday night. Cold front brings next bout of rain, but system expected to be progressive and cold front should push through without lingering like past systems. Significant change of airmass expected behind the front with cold Canadian high pressure spilling into the plains states.
345 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 A cold front passes across the area today.
We will remain on the eastern edge of the Pacific ridge today. A weak frontal boundary will push into the region Saturday night into Sunday bringing chances for light showers mainly in the higher elevations north of I-80.
The southeast flow will produce warmer temperatures across central Alabama with highs in the middle to upper 50s north and lower 60s south. A weak fast moving short wave trof will bring an increase in mid to high level clouds later tonight and into Sunday.
Have kept a dry forecast in place for today since model soundings show a very shallow moist layer in the low-levels which should only amount to a few hours of low-clouds. Clouds will scatter out for this afternoon and models do not show much in the way of CAA behind this trough.
645 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Seasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue to build into the region today. Fair and seasonably cool today, as dry high pressure ridges into the forecast area (FA) from the north. A coastal trough will develop offshore tonight in response to some approaching upper energy. Increasing onshore low level flow Sunday as a result of the high pressure moving off the coast will increase moisture, especially in the eastern forecast area.
522 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Breezy south winds will continue through late this morning before a cold front begins to make its way into northwest OK.
521 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Increasing pressure gradient ahead of a trough/weak cold front will lead to gusty SE winds up to 30-35 mph today. Highs will range from the upper 40s over the far northern CWA to the low-mid 50s elsewhere.
717 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
Tonight/Sunday, expect increasing upper forcing expected over the CWA/MSA associated with an upper jet streak (GFS deterministic run), along with a weak coastal trough (GFS ensemble mean MSLP), to contriubte to isolated showers over the MSA and over portions of the ERN CWA.
303 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 A cold front will pass through the Panhandles this morning. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday despite the cold front across the southeast half of the Texas Panhandle since the clouds will not be as thick as yesterday. Models are depicting an upper level trough digging down over the north central U.
Overview: Not as windy with warmer temperatures this weekend.
407 AM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 A northwest flow aloft will continue over the forecast area today with dry conditions prevailing for the lower elevations.
/issued 310 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020/ The recent cold front is now stalled over southern Florida, with over running moisture leading to low status covering the central and southern portions of the forecast area. These clouds will mostly clear out from north to south through the morning and early afternoon as high pressure settles in north of Florida.
It will be a cooler day compared to previous days with lower humidity making it feel very comfortable outdoors with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast is supporting northeast to easterly winds in the 15 to 20 knot range across all of the coastal waters this morning.
Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for today along with continued dry conditions. Precipitation with this system will remain to the north of the Bay Area, but slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday.
Winter weather advisories have been issued for the Lower Clark Fork region, the Clearwater Mountains, Lemhi County, Idaho, and the Potomac/Seeley Lake region where snowfall is expected to cause travel impacts tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the area Sunday with breezy westerly winds developing in the afternoon.
The large trough over the central CONUS will remain fairly stationary while the Pacific ridge just off the West Coast mostly keeps 500mb heights over the Southwestern U.
255 AM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a cold front dropping south and stalling out south of a line from Malta to Circle to Glendive. Over the Gulf of Alaska a weak trough perturbation is beginning to develop in the flow. Today through Tonight: Stalled cold front will bring cloudy skies to the northeastern and northern zones.
Other that some high lvl clouds, skies were mostly clear with predawn temps ranging fm the 20s to the lower 30s. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl cont to weaken acrs the FA today as the high center conts working EWD. High temps wl be a bit warmer on Sun, with readings topping out in the mid 50s to the mid 60s.
422 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will push off to the east today, leading to a gradual increase in clouds through the afternoon along with moderating temperatures.
Fortunately, an inversion is keeping the highest gusts aloft, but some areas have decoupled in the last hour with gust in the 30s at times. This will limit our solar insolation and keep us slightly cooler than we would have without it. Just ahead of this boundary there may be just enough moisture advection and isentropic accent to cause some freezing drizzle or flurries over N Missouri, but it will be short-lived with little to no QPF expected. Unfortunately, central MO will not get much WAA and highs will only reach into the lower 40s.
240 AM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary east of the area now, with high pressure over south central Canada.
518 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 The cold front was entering the Oklahoma Panhandle now. /Issued 303 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ A cold front will pass through the Panhandles this morning. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday despite the cold front across the southeast half of the Texas Panhandle since the clouds will not be as thick as yesterday. Models are depicting an upper level trough digging down over the north central U.
904 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Transient high pressure today. Strong cold front mid week. Thereafter, temperatures should level off, except may slowly rise on the hilltops and ridges late. Warming trend despite a weak cold front that will present brief shower activity across the region Sunday/Sunday night. Cold front brings next bout of rain, but system expected to be progressive and cold front should push through without lingering like past systems. Significant change of airmass expected behind the front with cold Canadian high pressure spilling into the plains states.
Large area of high pressure has moved east of the Appalachians early this morning which is bringing low-level flow back around from the south today. This will bring temperatures back into the lower 50s for most areas this afternoon which is right around average for this time of year. A very broad upper trough encompassing much of the US will shift eastward on Sunday with the trough axis passing through our area during the afternoon.
350 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Temperatures early this morning are 10 to 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
431 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Sprawling high pressure will move to the east of the Commonwealth today and tonight, but will still exert enough influence to keep our weather mainly dry. The passage of a weak cold front could produce a few light rain or snow showers on Sunday.
A weak mid-level ridge axis over the area this morning will move off to the east placing the area once again in WSWerly flow ahead of a broad, but shallow, longwave trough developing over the central CONUS. At the surface, a strong high pressure now moving into the Northeast will be pushed out by the aforementioned trough, thus weakening its presence over the region.
948 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will push off to the east today, leading to a gradual increase in clouds through the afternoon along with moderating temperatures.
327 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Warming trend continues today ahead of weak cold front which will push into NE OK by late afternoon and lose definition as it moves into western AR tonight.
(Today and tonight) Breezy south winds will continue through late this morning before a cold front begins to make its way into northwest OK.
606 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Sprawling high pressure will move to the east of the Commonwealth today and tonight, but will still exert enough influence to keep our weather mainly dry. The passage of a weak cold front could produce a few light rain or snow showers on Sunday.
645 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will push off to the east today, leading to a gradual increase in clouds through the afternoon along with moderating temperatures.
By Sunday night, a warm front will approach the region for the south and a cold front will move toward the Mid-South from the north.
1121 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Increasing pressure gradient ahead of a trough/weak cold front will lead to gusty SE winds up to 30-35 mph today. Highs will range from the upper 40s over the far northern CWA to the low-mid 50s elsewhere.
Some high clouds will continue to move across the region this afternoon, otherwise a warmer day is expected across the Mid-South. Made some minor temperatures adjustments as temperatures are a little warmer over southern sections and a little cooler in the north. Moisture will begin to advect back into the Mid-South today as southerly winds resume on the western periphery of the retreating surface anticyclone over the upper OH Valley. This warm advection will result in warmer overnight lows with temperatures generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
/Issued 518 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ The cold front was entering the Oklahoma Panhandle now. /Issued 303 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ A cold front will pass through the Panhandles this morning. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday despite the cold front across the southeast half of the Texas Panhandle since the clouds will not be as thick as yesterday. Models are depicting an upper level trough digging down over the north central U.
955 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 We currently have a cold front pushing southeast across the area. Arctic air returns to the region today following this latest cold front.
---BMickelson Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a cold front dropping south and stalling out south of a line from Malta to Circle to Glendive. Over the Gulf of Alaska a weak trough perturbation is beginning to develop in the flow. Today through Tonight: Stalled cold front will bring cloudy skies to the northeastern and northern zones.
Sunday is expected to be dry with warmer temperatures.
1038 AM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary east of the area now, with high pressure over south central Canada.
The NAM model show the stratus lasting through the day but most of the CAMs show the low stratus mixing out during the late morning and early afternoon hours. At this time, I'm favoring the CAM solutions with insolation through the afternoon and High temperature reaching the lower 50s across east central KS with mid 50s across the western half of the CWA.
Forecast Summary: Mild weather will continue into Sunday before before a cold front slides through the region bringing a chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures for a couple of days through mid week. Tonight through Sunday: Temperatures have warmed nicely across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon under full sunshine and northwest winds behind a cold front that slipped through the area this morning. Weak high pressure settling into the region behind the cold front tonight will shift east early Sunday, allowing south to southwest surface winds to return.
128 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure moves slowly east this evening and overnight. Overnight lows only a few degrees warmer than last night. Increasing onshore low level flow Sunday as a result of the high pressure moving off the coast will increase moisture, especially in the eastern forecast area.
Satellite and regional radar indicate the main moisture feed is now directed into the forecast area and an incipient warm front is developing a shield of light precipitation over western Washington and Oregon with some light returns beginning to develop over eastern Oregon. A cold front will push down across the region this evening interacting with this moisture across southeast Washington and into the southern to central Idaho Panhandle.
1246 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Sprawling high pressure will move to the east of the Commonwealth today and tonight, but will still exert enough influence to keep our weather mainly dry. The passage of a weak cold front could produce a few light rain or snow showers on Sunday.
304 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure over the northeastern United States will push eastward tonight into Sunday.
ABsence of sunny skies may trim a degree or two off of highs, but low level winds are still doing a good job mixing things out and bringing in warmer air. That should get lows tonight a bit warmer than last night, but still showing lows in the mid to upper 30s Sunday morning. Sunday looks to be cloudy as well with a broad upper trough moving east.
Weak cold front is passing through area, creating a northerly wind shift. /issued 350 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ Temperatures early this morning are 10 to 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
1053 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Sprawling high pressure will move to the east of the Commonwealth today and tonight, but will still exert enough influence to keep our weather mainly dry. The passage of a weak cold front could produce a few light rain or snow showers on Sunday.
1030 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
Additional moisture will move in as well with the warmer south winds, so expecting highs to get into the low to mid 50s, and upper 40s Plateau. Should winds mix a bit further in the low levels, temps may climb well into the mid 50s across the area, but for now have the warmer mid 50s confined to the southwest zones.
A beautiful Saturday continues to develop across the TN valley and southern Appalachian region this morning thanks to flat ridging aloft, as well as surface ridging setup east of the Appalachians centered over the Delmarva. High pressure continues to dominate across the region, while mid/upr moisture advects in from the w/sw. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 54 40 61 53 / 0 10 10 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 53 39 60 49 / 0 10 10 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 35 52 39 60 49 / 0 20 10 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 52 38 58 45 / 0 20 20 10 30.
234 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will move to the east of Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening.
1129 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 A cold front passes across the area today.
117 PM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 A backdoor cold front was moving W through NE MT this afternoon, producing a band of light snow. This energy will bring divergence to the area as it pushes into WY through Sunday, carving out a trough.
1221 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Transient high pressure today. Strong cold front mid week. Thereafter, temperatures should level off, except may slowly rise on the hilltops and ridges late. Warming trend despite a weak cold front that will present brief shower activity across the region Sunday/Sunday night. Cold front brings next bout of rain, but system expected to be progressive and cold front should push through without lingering like past systems. Significant change of airmass expected behind the front with cold Canadian high pressure spilling into the plains states.
109 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will push off to the east today, leading to moderating temperatures.
A beautiful Saturday continues to develop across the TN valley and southern Appalachian region this morning thanks to flat ridging aloft, as well as surface ridging setup east of the Appalachians centered over the Delmarva. High confidence that VFR will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure slides eastward. High to mid level clouds will increase this afternoon through tonight as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest, but no precipitation or drop in flight categories is expected. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 38 54 40 61 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 34 53 39 60 / 0 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 50 35 52 39 60 / 0 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 30 52 38 58 / 0 0 20 20 10.
1024 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 A weakening surface cold front passed the Keys last night. Satellite imagery shows some breaks in the overcast spreading southwest from near Cape Sable, so increasing sunshine should be expected over the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon. Some of the showers may enhance a little with daytime heating over the Everglades and spread southwest through Bayside waters toward the Middle Keys this evening, possibly reaching parts of the Lower Keys.
Cloud cover will increase late tonight as a weak upper trough approaches the area.
Cloud cover (mostly highly level) continues to spread into the region from west to east as a weak, moisture-starved trough approaches the area. The main impact this trough will have is to swing winds around to the northwest tonight and an increase in cloud cover to BKN or OVC. With these additional clouds, lows tonight will only fall into the lower to middle 30s. Sunday will be dry, save for an isolated sprinkle in the KY Pennyrile or southwest IN, with temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to today.
1200 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Breezy south winds will continue through late this morning before a cold front begins to make its way into northwest OK.
Did some minor adjustments to capture warmer temperatures in the Sisseton Hills region and slightly cooler temperatures across north central SD where cloud cover will move in most quickly this afternoon. Temps will be cooler for Sunday as winds around a weak high pressure are predominantly southeasterly. The period begins with west northwest flow aloft bringing cooler air into the region along with a short wave trough still scheduled to pass over our region.
/issued 523 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Look for warmer temperatures today and tonight, as winds from the south continue.
Pretty dry in the lower levels with surface dewpoints in the low 20s to low 30s.