Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moist southerly return flow on the western fringes of Bermuda high pressure will support a summer-like pattern for central NC starting today. Because of this very moist air(dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s), MLCAPE values across the southeastern portions of the forecast are already around 1000-1500 J/Kg. Largely driven by heating and the onshore flow, scattered rain chances are expected to spread south to north, The subtropical ridging centered over the SE US should limit convective rain chances somewhat. A Piedmont trough (weak) may be enough to focus scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. The pattern begins to breakdown some by late week into the weekend as the mid/upper ridge is suppressed some to the south as a series of mid/upper level s/w disturbances move across the northeast U.
519 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Current surface analysis places low over southern Manitoba, with cold front dropping down through North Dakota into northwest South Dakota. Towards our area, trough remains over the northern Rockies with ridge over the Great Lakes, leaving us in fast southwesterly flow. Otherwise, a much cooler day is expected. Coolest locations will be over the northwest, warmer towards the southeast. Warmer conditions return for much of the upcoming work week with a near daily chance for showers/thunderstorms. On Monday, a warm front will lift through the area, ushering in warmer temperatures and notable amounts of moisture. Exact positioning is still somewhat in question as it will be dictated by the position of the warm front.
This morning, water vapor imagery displays a closed low slowly moving north through OK toward KS and MO. This in combination with the enhanced lift provided by the upper level low will result in isolated to scattered storm chances this afternoon and evening (11 AM - 8 PM), mainly east of I-35 and south of I-70. At the end of the week, high pressure will move back into the region, diminishing storm chances. Kept storm mention out of KC Metro TAFs for now given the low coverage, and low confidence on timing and location for storms.
640 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Line of thunderstorms stretches near a cold front from northeastern North Dakota into the James River Valley. Current surface analysis places low over southern Manitoba, with cold front dropping down through North Dakota into northwest South Dakota. Towards our area, trough remains over the northern Rockies with ridge over the Great Lakes, leaving us in fast southwesterly flow. Otherwise, a much cooler day is expected. Coolest locations will be over the northwest, warmer towards the southeast. Warmer conditions return for much of the upcoming work week with a near daily chance for showers/thunderstorms. On Monday, a warm front will lift through the area, ushering in warmer temperatures and notable amounts of moisture. Exact positioning is still somewhat in question as it will be dictated by the position of the warm front.
Temps will be cooler today than yesterday, with less wind in most areas. A weak secondary cold front will move through today, but will largely go unnoticed as it will have no precipitation.
High pressure will continue to influence our weather through the upcoming week with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, the center of the broad upper low was spinning over north-central Texas. A weak impulse rotating around the low was combining with some elevated instability to generate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms generally along and west of a Sweetwater to Ballinger to Junction line.
242 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front from near Fargo, ND to Chamberlain to Sydney, NE, evident by a wind shift to the north-northwest. Given very warm temperatures today, nighttime lows will only drop into the upper 60s, but could see some values down to the lower 60s across central SD. Today's cold front re-establishes itself tomorrow as a northward racing warm front as warm-air advection and 500 hPa ridging expand across the immediate forecast area.
250 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Now, into a period of calmer weather for a few days as post- frontal high pressure has pushed away precipitation and most instability. Monday, temperatures rebound back up into the 80s under a re- building ridge of warmer high pressure from the south with no precipitation.
Given wide range in model solutions and the disorganized low level flow (at least until the low level jet develops later tonight), confidence in how widespread thunderstorms and their duration still relatively low. Looking forward to Monday afternoon and its precip chances, models are in even more disagreement likely in large part to an upper ridge building northward over what has been the primary initiation zone of eastern New Mexico and western South Plains/Panhandle. Secondarily, low level flow remains a problem with uncertainty after lingering outflow boundary or not and how far the dryline or surface confluence is able to shift with potential for veering low level flow in the western zones underneath the building ridge.
While low level jet is positively orientated, strength is weak thus any convection will be tied to spokes of energy rotating around the upper low as it tracks very slowly out of Oklahoma into southwest Missouri overnight. Some model variation in the placement of the center and track of the low on Monday.
1155 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
An upper low now situated over Oklahoma was in part continuing a southerly, disturbance-laden and diffluent upper flow over the SE states.
MLCAPE on the 12z sounding was nearing 700 joules and may see that edge upward but only slightly as temperatures strongly to climb to highs only 5-8 degrees warmer than at 9 AM. This was occurring as an upper level low over the plains continues to churn and slowly drift to the northeast.
(This evening through Monday) Complex scenario will continue tonight into Monday as upper low fills and opens ups as it moves ever so slowly northeast. Activity over our area, possible developing in the late evening hours, expected to be in response to minor disturbance rotating around western side of upper low coinciding with developing llj. Several models including HRRR, GFS as well as others support some of the higher terrain convection making it far enough east to congeal with the activity already in Oklahoma/north Texas. Although a downward trend in coverage is anticipated, additional activity will remain possible during the day as upper low continues to translate northeast away from the area.
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Very warm and increasingly humid conditions will persist as upper ridging remains in place across the region. Low level moisture will increase as upper low pressure over TX/OK drifts north and undercuts this ridge with an appreciable surge of Gulf of Mexico fed moisture working around the east side of this system into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Over the next several days, this low will slowly migrate north and northeast towards the area, developing into an open wave system with time.
233 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Large slow moving upper low is centered over east central OK with multiple areas of focused lift rotating around its periphery and supporting localized increases in convective converage. A consistent signal amongst data is for an increase in convective coverage later tonight possibly nearer the upper low center and also further south nearer the Red River corridor or southward. High rain chances continue tomorrow as guidance has continued to suggest a convectively enhanced vort max will rotate around the the southern to eastern corridor of the larger trough axis.
A large but weak upper low was centered over OK late today, while ridging was along the southeast coast. The low will weaken further and only drift as far MO by late Monday night. A large ridge of high pressure will be in place over the southeast CONUS, with a large trough of low pressure situated over the Great Plains. Another weather feature of note is a very slow moving area of low pressure aloft that the models are now picking up on. With that being said, this low pressure area looks to be weak enough to not warrant the very high PoPs that the latest NBM came in with.
At 500mb, there is a weak high pressure center, and this morning's sounding showed temperatures around -4C. Once this active weather subsides, the weather should be mostly quiet on Monday as the moisture gets drawn to the north, towards a 500mb low pressure system. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will slide eastward as a trough digs into the central United States. Drier air will filter into the area from the east, which when combined with the high pressure aloft, will help limit convective coverage and focus it along the Gulf sea breeze on some of the afternoons. There is some uncertainty with these potential features and the forecast will likely change over the week since the high pressure's hold over the region may change.
305 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 An upper low over Oklahoma was helping send deep mid/upper level moisture across the Deep South.
Gusty south to southwest winds and decreasing temperatures can be expected today through the middle of the coming week as a low pressure system slowly moves inland from the Eastern Pacific. Greater cooling expected during the week as a deepening trough develops along the West Coast.
An upper level low remains centered over Oklahoma and will slowly drift northeastward, and southeasterly flow will continue to pump ample moisture into the area. The upper level low slowly weakens and moves northeastward as ridging builds in in northern Mexico and Texas. Guidance does show that the ridge to our southeast will build into the CONUS, but uncertainty remains on how quickly it builds. Also have a warming trend for the high temperatures as the week passes.
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine -Humid with scattered showers and storms this week -Humid with scattered showers and storms this week Closed upper low currently over OK lifts very slowly north over the next few days, reaching nrn Il/srn Lwr MI by midweek. Several vorticity maxima moving northward on the eastern side of the approaching upper low/trough will be impacting srn Lwr MI over the next few days, providing frequent impetuses for scattered showers and tstms. The idea of a backdoor cold front late in the week has been slowly fading but some drier air via a Hudson Bay high could still be seeping in from the northeast by Fri-Sat if/when the persistent upper low finally shears out or departs.
With 925 mb temperatures about 4C cooler than yesterday, surface temperatures are running anywhere from 4 to 8F cooler (82-92F) than yesterday at this time. From tonight into Monday, a low pressure area over the mid Mississippi River Valley will lift slowly north toward northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This system will be bringing with it an increase in low level moisture (dew points in the lower and mid-60s).
238 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A broad upper level trough continues to slowly circulate across the Southern Plains with upper level ridging across Florida. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected again tomorrow as a series of weak vort maxes move through the more broad trough. Currently expecting little to no shear in the low to mid levels with 0-6km bulk shear vectors around 15-20kts along with marginal ML CAPE that maxes out at around 1000 J/kg with slightly higher values across south central Indiana. The models continue to suggest an upper trough or weak upper low lingering across Indiana and Illinois.
245 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Upper level trough will continue to slowly lift northeastward towards forecast area with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 to 36 hours. Better chances of showers and storms Monday afternoon due to peak daytime heating and the upper level trough/cutoff low moving into southwestern MO with the region in a favorable area for increased activity. The majority of the deterministic and ensemble models, have the upper level trough continue to slowly drift and weaken as it moves towards the lower Great Lakes region. As the trough weakens and shifts east of region, the upper level ridge will build in with warmer and drier air advecting in.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 83 69 83 70 / 50 80 50 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 83 68 83 68 / 40 80 50 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 67 83 68 / 40 80 50 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 65 83 65 / 30 80 60 70 40.
With the upper ridge still over our area, additional moisture at the mid-levels will advect into the area today along with a slight disturbance to the flow. Upper ridge begins to re-amplify on Mon with drier air spreading into wrn CO by afternoon. Max temps Mon will climb back to well above average readings as ridge builds and mid levels warm, with mid 90s across the lower Arkansas Valley by late day.
125 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. This Afternoon: Aloft, weak ridging will persist over the Southeast while a closed low positioned over the South Central United States gradually shifts north and begins to weaken. At the sfc, the area will remain positioned along the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. Further south, breaks in cloud cover will support warmer temps, with highs generally ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s (warmest across interior Georgia). Look for lows mainly in the low 70s A typical summertime pattern on tap for early to mid week with Atlantic high pressure remaining the dominant surface feature.
1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A Pacific cold front moving through the nrn Rockies this morning should drift into wrn Nebraska this morning and become stationary across ncntl and the srn Panhandle this afternoon providing an excellent focus of thunderstorm development.
While the upper level low situated across Oklahoma this afternoon shifts northeast into the Midwest tomorrow, upper level winds will become more southerly across the region, allowing for deep layer southerly flow. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with highs tomorrow in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): High pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas with gusty SSE winds along the coast continuing into Monday night. Slightly warmer temperatures Monday afternoon with similar humidity values will push heat indices to 112 or 113 as well for Zapata and Starr, with another Heat Advisory potentially needed. A Wind Advisory may be needed as well Monday afternoon along the lower Texas coast as the pressure gradient tightens a little more.
This afternoon, an upper low is noted centered over eastern Oklahoma with difluent flow aloft ahead of this feature across central Illinois. There should be a brief lull in coverage after sunset tonight, but a weak vort max ejecting out ahead of the main upper low may support additional showers overnight, especially east of I-55. Expect much of the same for Monday with the upper low still just to our southwest, lifting across the Ozarks by late in the day.
As of 10 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are predominantly in the lower 70s across most locations. We should see more coverage in convection for today and tomorrow as the upper low continues to meander around the area. The upper low will shift out of the region by mid week, and the result will be NW flow in the mid levels over the region later in the week.
Moist southerly return flow on the western fringes of Bermuda high pressure will support a summer-like pattern for central NC starting today. Because of this very moist air(dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s), MLCAPE values across the southeastern portions of the forecast are already around 1000-1500 J/Kg. Largely driven by heating and the onshore flow, scattered rain chances are expected to spread south to north, The subtropical ridging centered over the SE US should limit convective rain chances somewhat. A Piedmont trough (weak) may be enough to focus scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening.
308 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 The forecast focus remains on the progression of the upper low through Tues. A moist, almost maritime tropical atmosphere continues to stream into the region as a slow moving upper low continues to spin across southern OK/north TX.
302 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Summer weather pattern continues with just minimal chances for The overall pattern reflects a couple of low pressure systems to the west. and a closed low was located in the southern plains in eastern OK. As we head into tonight, the souther plains upper low pressure system will continue to gradually lift to the northeast and could see some low clouds work northward from KS.
235 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Upper low to our west remains the story, and will continue to be the next bunch of days. This upper low has weakened just slightly, and the center has pushed north, now situated over OK.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an open flow from the Gulf of Mexico into our region. The upper RIDGE is expected to amplify concurrently as the mostly cutoff storm system over OK drifts more northeastward towards MO during this period.
GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cut-off upper level low over Eastern Oklahoma.
An upper lvl ridge will move overhead Tue brining our first 100 degree temps this year. Upper lvl ridge will enforce a strong LLTR overhead supporting multiple days of triple digit heat. There will be a chance for thunderstorms in the higher terrain due to day time heating and orographic lifting throughout the week. The ridge will strength Wed/Thu making those the warmest days. An upper lvl trough will dive into NorCal Thu tilting the ridge in a negative orientation but the ridge will remain over the Southern Plains. A secondary trough likely flatten the ridge Sat bringing temps back down to near normal.
250 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Satellite imagery shows weak ridging over our region, with departing trof to our northeast moving into Manitoba, and the next upstream low off the PacNW coast.
To the west, a broad, cool trough remains entrenched over the Pacific Northwest with the upper Midwest and Northeast US under a broad ridge. Over the next few days, models agree well that this pattern will amplify with the trough digging deeper to encompass the entire US west coast.
Early Monday morning, models bring another vort max north out in front of the eastward drifting upper low. Clouds will continue to hang tough on the northward advection of moisture and this will provide a cap on high temps keeping them in the low 80s. The energy associated with a slow lumbering upper low will be the forcing for a good portion of this upcoming work week until we can get another trough in behind it to kick it out of the area.
145 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A slow moving upper low continues its march through the Southern Plains today. The cold front has surged south of the area and extends from far eastern ND through central SD and back along the NE border into central WY. Breezy and cooler conditions today behind the front, although winds will decrease later this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Gusty winds and large hail will be the primary threats, although a tornado is possible closer to the warm front as it pushes northward across the northeastern portions of the CWA/ND border.
The upper level low will move from Oklahoma tonight to Missouri Monday night as the Subtropical Ridge begins to build along the Rio Grande. The low level jet will feed into these storms allowing them to organize. With the Subtropical Ridge beginning to build into our area, temperatures will become more summer like.
242 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Strong Bermuda high pressure off the southeast coast will dominate the weather through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach from the north and east during the second half of the week. Bermuda high will remain in tact while an upper-level ridge remains along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast. Bermuda high will remain in tact during the period while an upper-level ridge continues along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast.
234 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Slightly cooler than normal temperatures and periods of gusty west to southwest winds will continue through Monday.
115 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
- Temperatures and dew points steadily increase through the week reaching the low 90's late this week. Heat indicies trend toward the high 90's. An upper level low is slowly making its way north out of OK. Continued southerly surface flow steadily advects warmer and more moist air into our region. Weak upper level flow and a building ridge to the north and west of the low stifle its northward progress. A ridge building in the SW CONUS shoves the low eastward mid to late week.
346 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. This Evening and Tonight: Aloft, weak ridging will persist over the Southeast while a closed low positioned over the South Central United States gradually shifts north and begins to weaken. At the sfc, the area will remain positioned along the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure, favoring a warm and moist southerly flow into the region. 0 inches and somewhat weak steering flow in place, while water vapor imagery and sfc dewpts in the low-mid 70s also favor an atmosphere prime for heavy rainfall. In general, low temps should only dip into the low-mid 70s, and mid-upper 70s along the beaches. High pressure will continue to be the predominant surface feature through midweek.
For now, plan to keep 40-50% PoP coverage for the latter half of the overnight period, with the highest chances generally along and west of I-65. This will push daily dew points into the low 70s and precipitable water values to near 2".
/issued 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ As of 06z the center of the upper level low was situated between Wichita Falls and Fort Worth as it slowly lifts to the northeast. With the upper level low moving away from the area today, heights aloft will begin to slowly build. /WCI Our nearby upper low will have made it to the KS/MO border by Monday morning with northwesterly flow aloft evident across WTX.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show deep layer southwest flow in place across the western Great Lakes, ahead of a cold front that is entering western Minnesota. Moisture appears to be increasing in the low levels as evident by convective cloud formation surging northward across Wisconsin. The cold front will lose definition as it moves into northwest Wisconsin after midnight. Higher moisture air will continue to surge in from the south, and this may make min temps a degree or two warmer than last night. Meanwhile, will still have the remnants of the cold front stretched out over northern Wisconsin. Monday Night Through Sunday Upper ridging over most of the nation east of the Rockies will make for warm temperatures and mostly dry weather through the end of the work week.
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, the center of the broad upper low was spinning over north-central Texas. A weak impulse rotating around the low was combining with some elevated instability to generate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms generally along and west of a Sweetwater to Ballinger to Junction line.
High pressure to our north continues to control weather conditions keeping breezy southeasterly winds in place.
The surface front was being picked up by the radar, extending from Fosston down to near the Wahpeton Breckenridge area. This dewpoint discontinuity will also be represented at the surface as a warm front, connected with a low somewhere back over western South Dakota.