Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High amplitude flow exists across the CONUS, with a ridge in the west and trof/cold air across the east. The remainder of the short term period will remain dry as the upper level ridge remains in control of our weather. Upper ridge w/ persistent downslope pressure gradients will allow for a continued warming trend today and Thursday. Drainage down the Clarks Fork could hold temps back some from Bridger to Billings today.
542 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Quite a bit warmer this morning across the region than the previous few mornings, with temperatures in the middle to upper teens. Still, expect cold air advection to stymie temperatures through the day, relegating day time highs to the lower teens up north, and 20s, toward the I-70 corridor. Early this morning, there could be some light snow in far northwest Missouri, behind the cold front, where a weak PV anomaly gets just enough lift to get some marginal saturation in the Dendritic Growth Zone.
510 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 (Today and Tonight) We will finally see some warmer temperatures today despite a very cold start to the day. Skies are clear across West Central Texas early this morning and we'll see full sunshine today with afternoon highs in the lower 50s. Temperatures will be cold again tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 20s.
929 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Upper level low pressure will drift east across the north side of the Great Lakes this week. In the meantime, weak high pressure will prevail over the Mid Atlantic outside of weak cold frontal passages tonight and Wednesday night. High pressure builds into the area for the end of the week.
A wave of low pressure will move by to our south which will produce some showers tonight, mainly across California and east side areas (including KLMT), but condition should remain VFR.
Low temperatures may be a little cooler in locations that received rainfall.
Convection out west on the High Plains will likely also weaken before it were to get close.
Dewpoints across western North Dakota are in the lower 30s at this time with mid to upper 30s central. As the Airmass shifts to the east and winds become light in the center of the high will be setting up for some more patchy frost tonight south central. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected with widespread frost.
Moisture is expected to increase in the lower levels through the overnight allowing for a brief stint of MVFR CIGs to develop toward 12Z, especially for CRP-ALI-LRD.
751 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 A weak disturbance ahead of a cold front will bring a chance of showers tonight. The chance for showers will persist on Wednesday as the cold front crosses the region, with thunderstorms also possible Wednesday afternoon.
/issued 234 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017/ An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes area and another upper trough is over Northern Mexico/Southern California with west to southwest flow over the CWA. The upper trough out west will gradually move eastward bringing increasing upper lift over the area tonight into Wednesday. Expect temperatures to be even cooler on Wednesday with the increase in moisture and cloud cover.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON Late evening surface analysis depicts Atlantic ridging (1020 millibars) extending across central Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A stationary frontal boundary is positioned from southeast Texas through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. our region resides within a southwest flow pattern between deep-layered ridging centered east of the Bahamas and deep troughing that covers the Great Lakes states and Ohio Valley region. Lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the low and mid 70s at the coast. The axis of Atlantic ridging will reside over central Florida for most of this week.
6PM UPDATE: High pressure will continue to dominate through the period keeping skies clear and wind fairly light. Proton Previous Discussion: Upper ridge will continue to inch eastward from the Rockies tonight and Wednesday bringing warmer air aloft into the state. There have been few general changes to the two cycle ridge-trough pattern described below. Templer Previous condition - Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a large ridge running down from the Northwest Territories through Montana, including eastern Montana, and into the Intermountain West. A large trough runs extends from the pacific Northwest and British Columbia back off through the Gulf of Alaska and south of the Aleutians.
945 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 Most clouds expected toward central Wisconsin tonight, closer to the mid/upper low. Persistent west winds around low pressure near james bay Canada will persist into Wednesday. Surface ridging will become prevalent Wednesday with less wind and less cloud cover expected.
514 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 20z surface analysis had 1023mb high over southern SK with ridge extending into NE. Water vapour showed upper ridge over the Rockies moving east.
/Issued 300 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017/ Moderately moist and unstable airmass in place with regime characterized by lingering stationary front near the I-20 corridor and broad upper trough axis to the west as main influencing features. No clear indicator for where convection will be focused Wednesday based on hi-res solutions, though one could argue the low/mid level moisture gradient and possibly more diffuse boundary could be shifted farther southward into central Georgia. Did not feel confident other than going general chance pops area-wide given very similar overall setup to today with any impulse east of the upper trough axis (though broad) perhaps enhancing precip potential.
854 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 An upper level trough will remain centered over eastern Canada through the week.
A weak upper low pres trough will bring a stronger onshore flow on Wednesday with cooling inland including the upper deserts and Coachella Valley. Flat ridging will bring a gradual warmup for Thu through the upcoming weekend and shallower marine layer. A weak low pressure system moving through California will bring inland cooling through Wednesday with deepening of the marine layer into the far inland valleys.
1043 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 20z surface analysis had 1023mb high over southern SK with ridge extending into NE. Water vapour showed upper ridge over the Rockies moving east.
538 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 The current visible satellite image is showing cumulus clouds popping up over the higher terrain.
704 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the midwest will move will move across the area on Wednesday.
1010 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Cold fronts cross late Wednesday.
/10/ Prior discussion below: This afternoon/tonight through Wednesday: Rain and storms have been ongoing this afternoon across portions along and north of the Highway 82 corridor with some increasing chances slowly as you go towards the I-20 corridor, due to some efficient warming and diurnal heating. In this area temperatures have warmed nicely into the lower 80s. With temperatures falling into the low-mid 60s, especially across the northern half of the area, some patchy to patchy dense fog are possible across the Highway 82 corridor. A warm and cloudy day is expected Wednesday in the low 80s in southeast Mississippi where more convection will cause more widespread cloud cover and all.
Out west at DRT, we have gone with prevailing -RA this evening given plenty of convection over the higher terrain of Mexico. The low level jet will help maintain this activity through about 15Z. when the climatological diurnal convective lull occurs as the low level jet wanes and before daytime heating ramps up.
A weak disturbance will pass by the region, bringing high clouds, breezy winds, and slightly cooler temperatures for the middle of the week. I also tweaked sky cover upward in some other areas where the high clouds were fairly thick.
1149 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 An upper level trough across the Great Lakes Region and an upper ridge over the Rocky Mountains will persist through Wednesday. A warm front aloft will lift northeast late tonight, a will be favorable for isolated shower development late tonight after 09z. On Wednesday, elevated showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage during the morning with the higher 30 pops in the central forecast area.
/28/ This afternoon/tonight through Wednesday: Rain and storms have been ongoing this afternoon across portions along and north of the Highway 82 corridor with some increasing chances slowly as you go towards the I-20 corridor, due to some efficient warming and diurnal heating. In this area temperatures have warmed nicely into the lower 80s. With temperatures falling into the low-mid 60s, especially across the northern half of the area, some patchy to patchy dense fog are possible across the Highway 82 corridor. A warm and cloudy day is expected Wednesday in the low 80s in southeast Mississippi where more convection will cause more widespread cloud cover and all.
Surface ridging will become prevalent Wednesday with less wind and less cloud cover expected.
1011 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 A weak disturbance ahead of a cold front will bring a chance of showers tonight. The chance for showers will persist on Wednesday as the cold front crosses the region, with thunderstorms also possible Wednesday afternoon.
have gone PROB30 all sites but KBPT where some weak ridging aloft as noted earlier may be enough to limit convection somewhat. we will see another good chance of rain Wednesday even though there may be some weak high pressure aloft to our west.
731 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Cold fronts cross late Wednesday.
Radar trends have shown weakening in convection/showers with the loss of daytime heating, and this trend is expected across all of the region save for far Southwestern Montana where a weak ridge rider will provide some extra lift to supplement the orographic effects from daytime heating. - Moldan The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to reside over the region through Wednesday.
Low to mid level moisture will increase across the lower and middle Rio Grande valley and northeast ranchlands tonight into Wednesday as a 500mb trough moves across west Texas.
1002 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the midwest will move across the area on Wednesday.
Strong high pressure aloft will move east of Utah on Wednesday.
1031 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 The current visible satellite image is showing cumulus clouds popping up over the higher terrain.
A wave of low pressure will move by to our south which will produce some showers tonight, mainly across California and east side areas (including KLMT), but condition should remain VFR. Temperatures away from the coast are significantly cooler than this time yesterday, on the order of 10-15 degrees.
High pressure ridge axis will migrate back into the waters on Wed.
Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched under the broad upper troughing emanating from a stacked low pressure system now anchored over north- central Ontario. One final wave will drive the mean trough axis across the lower peninsula on Wednesday. A period of weak cold air advection accompanying the trough passage will ensure highs hold mainly in the 60s.
The second cold front is still well to the north and stretches from Kansas City to near Chicago. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 82 61 86 / 20 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 81 59 81 / 20 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 61 81 58 82 / 30 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 79 56 78 / 20 40 20 10.
Have updated the forecast to decrease PoPs through 06Z, but models are still showing an upper trough approaching later tonight which could increase rainfall again 06-12Z. /issued 234 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017/ An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes area and another upper trough is over Northern Mexico/Southern California with west to southwest flow over the CWA. The upper trough out west will gradually move eastward bringing increasing upper lift over the area tonight into Wednesday. Expect temperatures to be even cooler on Wednesday with the increase in moisture and cloud cover.
Weak northwesterly flow aloft this evening will become westerly tomorrow as an upper ridge remains over the state. Another round of afternoon showers should develop over the mountains and foothills tomorrow, and once again showers over the plains should be limited as storms weaken when they move away from the higher terrain. Less convective activity today over the plains and northern mountains with a warmer and drier airmass in place. High pressure ridge axis will be over Western Colorado on wednesday afternoon with even warmer temperatures expected. Scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain will be decreasing Wednesday evening, as a slight chance of storms pushes out over the eastern plains due to enough moisture advecting in from the east southeast.
BMickelson 6PM UPDATE: High pressure will continue to dominate through the period keeping skies clear and wind fairly light. Proton Previous Discussion: Upper ridge will continue to inch eastward from the Rockies tonight and Wednesday bringing warmer air aloft into the state. There have been few general changes to the two cycle ridge-trough pattern described below. Templer Previous condition - Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a large ridge running down from the Northwest Territories through Montana, including eastern Montana, and into the Intermountain West. A large trough runs extends from the pacific Northwest and British Columbia back off through the Gulf of Alaska and south of the Aleutians.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge lies across central Florida and into the Gulf coast region. Along the island chain, skies are mostly clear with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to reside over the region through Wednesday.
A stronger storm currently in Wayne County, TN has the highest potential for impacting us and would impact Lincoln County, TN and the northern part of Lauderdale County, AL. Didn't edit the lows much which are still expected to drop into the lower 60s.
639 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 An upper level trough across the Great Lakes Region and an upper ridge over the Rocky Mountains will persist through Wednesday. A warm front aloft will lift northeast late tonight, a will be favorable for isolated shower development late tonight after 09z. On Wednesday, elevated showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage during the morning with the higher 30 pops in the central forecast area.
Upper air pattern will still show an east coast trough, with weak high pressure over the area.
Showers are ending across Western Washington tonight as a trough exits.
1056 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Weak low pressure passes well south of Long Island along a stationary front overnight allowing the flow to become more southerly on Wednesday resulting in summer-like weather.
The closed low this morning is currently centered along the Oregon/Idaho border near Boise and Ontario.
417 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central U. on Mon as a trough digs into the western U.
Temperatures are currently below freezing in that area, but the depth of cold air is still remains in question. Due to the uncertainty of how quick the band will move and available moisture, only a Special Weather Statement was issued to address possible light freezing rain and sleet. Monday will be on the cool and dry side as arctic high pressure builds in from the north. After sundown, showers and possible a thunderstorm will begin to move into the Mid-South as a warm front begins to lift north.
305 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 High pressure will provide fair weather today into Tuesday.
A relatively narrow band of sleet mixed with freezing rain continues to make eastward progress, now east of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Getting some healthy rates in the Bluegrass region, with moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s for many this morning, but will warm above freezing around midday. Highs this afternoon are forecast to reach the low to mid 40s under partly to mostly sunny skies. A brisk northeast wind will make it feel somewhat cooler. Quiet and clear conditions tonight, with lows dropping into the low 20s to low 30s. High pressure shifts east on Tuesday, and return flow will begin to setup. A giant 500mb ridge of high pressure looks to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and develop quasi-zonal flow aloft for the lower Ohio River valley.
1236 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 A cold front will pass south of the region overnight bringing colder and drier air into NY and PA. Otherwise, high pressure will provide dry weather with seasonal temperatures through Tuesday. Fog has become dense along the high elevations this evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Low pressure currently over western New York will lift into southern Quebec this evening with the trailing cold front sweeping through betRRMween 00Z-06Z.
410 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 A cold front will sink southward and into the forecast area this afternoon. The approaching cold front is forecast to move into the forecast area this afternoon and shift just south of the area tonight. The temperature guidance was close with highs in the lower and middle 70s today.
218 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018 An upper trough is strengthening across the western CONUS this morning with flow aloft across the CWA becoming more west/southwesterly.
High pressure will then build into the region from the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday.
The circulation around the high will bring east and southeast winds through about Tuesday afternoon.
150 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 High pressure building into the area early this morning. Main concern will be impact of weakening mid-level trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region tonight into Tuesday.
349 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 Arctic high pressure over the area with very cold conditions and dangerous wind chills this morning highlight the short term. Currently, arctic high pressure extended from southeastern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, into northeastern Montana and much of North Dakota. The large upper level low pressure system in the southwestern US is forecast to diminish as an upper ridge builds over the west coast and northern Rockies.
Ne-sw oriented surface cold front now across Al will become more east-west as it reaches the Ga-Fl border this evening. Strong high pressure building to the north will push the backdoor front south across ne Fl tonight with a ne surge arriving late tonight.
348 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 A cold front will sink southward and into the forecast area this afternoon. The approaching cold front is forecast to move into the forecast area this afternoon and shift just south of the area tonight. The temperature guidance was close with highs in the lower and middle 70s today.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the region through Tuesday.
1157 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 VFR conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will remain under 10 knots and basically become calm Monday night as this high crosses the area. Pronounced anti-cyclonic/surface ridging should be enough to clear us out. A secondary cold front coming down from the Northern great Lakes late tonight will probably be just enough to keep winds from decoupling, and will keep mins in the 5 to 10 degree range overnight. Warm advection/return flow around the high will boost 850 mb temps further, reaching -2 C to zero by day's end on Tuesday, but maxes still likely coming up short of the 30 degrees with the deep snowpack and limited mixing depths.
Temperatures have dropped just a bit quicker this evening, and latest model guidance has followed suit to continue the cooler temps earlier overnight as well. Cold air will continue to move into the region, and with echoes showing up on radar crossing the TN River Valley, chances for freezing rain/sleet will impact mainly areas along and north of I-40 and west of I-65 this evening. Should freezing temperatures spread further into the mid state, the northwest half of the area could see light freezing rain before the early morning hours. Obs sites west and north of the area have not shown frozen precip yet, however there have been some reports relayed to neighboring offices of freezing rain and sleet.
330 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 High pressure will provide sunny but cold conditions across central Illinois today. Meanwhile, ridging will develop downstream across the Plains/Midwest. As a result, have kept high temperatures around freezing along/north of a Macomb to Minonk line on Tuesday.
239 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 Broad high pressure centered over the Dakotas will build across the Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes today and Tuesday before reaching the east coast Tuesday night.
152 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 A cold front will swing through the North Country through the overnight hours and lead to rapidly cooling temperatures just before sunrise today.
Needed The center of high pressure was across the northern Midwest this morning.
Water vapor loop indicated a broad upper level trough across southern Canada with a short wave trough over the MAN/Ontario border. Westerly sfc flow will contribute to substantial warming on Wed; potential exists to drive temps toward 40 degrees, as it stands now most areas are progged to at least climb above freezing. This will be attributable to a quasi backdoor cold frontal structure descending from Canada. VFR/SKC as skies clearing out with high pressure approaching for the overnight into Monday.
With the high well to the east on Tuesday the 850/925 millibar waa will persist on Tuesday.
156 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 Low pressure will move northeast tonight followed by dry weather and high pressure through mid week. There is patchy freezing drizzle across much of the area, but no accumulation is expected outside of the remaining advisory area. A high pressure ridge build into Maine will remain in place as a low moving along a cold front along the Downeast coast will force warmer air over the colder air at the surface. This will produce some sleet and freezing rain and drizzle across the region tonight. Temperatures will rise tonight into the lower 30s across northern Maine. Temperatures will peak around sunrise tomorrow then fall as the front moves east of the area and the ridge builds back across the area. The ridge will dominate through the end of the period.
A slow moving band of snow transitioning over the forecast area this morning will be east of the ridges by mid-morning. This afternoon will be dry with clearing skies as high pressure builds in over the region. Max temperatures will average around 15-20 degrees cooler than observed yesterday with northwesterly flow behind the front. Light winds and limited cloud coverage overnight with high pressure centered over the forecast area will allow for strong radiational cooling and lows bottoming out in the teens to high single digits.
The lowest levels of the atmosphere will remain dry, so VFR conditions will prevail. Lingering precip across the southeast counties will encounter warmer temperatures and should begin to switch back over to all liquid form by sunset. Clearing skies and dry air will allow temperatures to drop back below freezing overnight across the entire region, with tonight's low temperatures ranging from the lower 20s across the northwest to near 30 across the southeast.
305 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 Current GOES-16 WV loop imagery shows western CONUS upper low becoming more established and undergoing the process of becoming a cut-off feature. Quasi-zonal flow pattern established over the central CONUS with previous mid to upper trough now stretched from the Mid-MS Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region. Today, upper pattern becomes more southwesterly flow oriented into the region as the western CONUS cut-off low becomes more anchored in place. Have maintained lower high temps over the region with around 30 in northern areas with snowpack and warmer near 40 over portions of east central KS. Overnight lows in the low 20s should be reasonable.