Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These terminals will come under an inverted trof advancing across the forecast area. This seems reasonable given the continued WWD trek of the inverted trof across the NW Gulf. For all the southern sites however, have opted to maintain VCSH through the night and morning as an inverted trof advances west across the region. /issued 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ This afternoon the inverted trof/tropical wave in eastern Louisiana that has been stuck has finally begun moving to the west and is creeping into south central Louisiana attm. afternoon temperatures will range in the lower 90s. This will see precip chances tapering off a bit Saturday and aftn temps climbing somewhat but overall we will be far enough away from the ridge to the east to allow daytime heating and the gulf moisture to give us the typical afternoon storms.
Skies have cleared out as the sun has set and high pressure continues to build over the area. High pressure building into the region for tonight and will lead to minimal impacts into Friday afternoon. The cold front driving late Friday's thunderstorms is expected to push east and south of the area.
255 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 The upper level ridge will be centered near the TX Panhandle this afternoon, with a weak west/southwesterly flow aloft. The thunderstorms this afternoon will not be as strong, with the best coverage over the higher terrain this afternoon, with isolated storms across the northeast plains late this afternoon and early this evening. An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the Rocky Mountain Region through the period with daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms expected along near to above normal temperatures. Some recycled monsoonal moisture combined with daytime heating will result in isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms on Saturday, mainly across the higher terrain. The models are hinting at a cold front moving into northeastern Colorado Saturday evening with much higher dewpoints behind it.
1133 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 A pleasant night is underway, with lows on track to bottom out in the low to mid 60s. By Saturday a cold front is expected to move into Wisconsin bringing a chance for storms and northerly wind shift. As the cold front approaches, waves may build to 3 to 5 feet Saturday afternoon from Port Washington to Sheboygan.
140 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure will build east across the region later today and remain through Saturday.
1001 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Friday will be cooler with continued breezy conditions. Tonight and Friday: As the cold front moves through and a broad trough sits over the Inland Northwest, we'll have a short change in conditions before the start of a dry, warming trend. There will be cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and slight chance for mountain showers. A subtle ridge pattern will build along the coast as the trough exits the region. The ridge will allow for a dry Northwest flow with little cloud cover and plenty of sun for heating through the day.
330 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Warmer and more humid conditions will be noted across central Illinois today as afternoon high temperatures top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. High pressure currently centered over north-central Indiana will shift slowly eastward today, allowing a southerly return flow to develop this afternoon. Lows tonight will remain in the lower to middle 70s under mostly clear skies. A warm front will lift northward through the region Saturday morning, potentially triggering isolated showers/thunder. With air temperatures reaching the lower 90s, peak afternoon heat index readings will exceed 105 degrees.
An upper level ridge will continue to build over the area through Saturday. Very little change in overnight lows with temps in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s near the coast.
Much like today, storms will initiate over the high terrain and slowly move onto nearby lower elevations. The monsoon season is finally underway as moisture streams north from Mexico into NM, thanks to a high pressure area centered in TX.
This forecast was close to the guidance blend but cooler than the rapid refresh models which tend to mix deeply and produce warm high temperatures. The short term model blend also keeps temperatures at night warmer than the guidance blend which allows for radiational cooling. The models suggest a cold front will drop into northern Nebraska Saturday afternoon and the short term blend produced cooler highs. The approaching cold front Saturday will likely produce deep vertical mixing across southwest and north central Nebraska. The short term model blend suggested Saturday would be the warmer of the two days. The GFS and ECM continue to show western and north central Nebraska on the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the South.
Still expecting a transition toward hotter/drier to begin on Friday under strong high pressure aloft (594-595 dm 500 mb heights).
Even though afternoon high temperatures will be a degree or so warmer than yesterday, afternoon dewpoints will continue doing a better job of mixing out.
Deep layer ridging will build in behind a westward moving tropical wave with increasing dry air in the 700-300mb layer and PWATs dropping off to 1. Aside from the dwindling rain chances, the heat will continue with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices in the low/mid 100s. High pressure continues to be the dominating factor, with the slightly drier air reducing afternoon convective coverage.
Cooler tomorrow as lower 850mb temps work in, with highs near 90 in lower elevations of Columbia Basin, mid 80s Central Oregon, and 70s mountains. Still breezy by afternoon, but less of a fire concern expected as cooler temperatures will keep min RHs about 10% higher. Short wave trough and associated surface front swinging through the PacNW today. Cooler with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Dry, stable northwest flow expected Sat into Sat night as the wave departs to the east and as ridging over the eastern Pacific tries to creep east towards the PacNW. Will still be relatively cooler with highs in the low 80s to low 90s again.
Early this morning, high pressure was across the area. Light winds provided by the high were allowing patchy fog to form across central Indiana. Otherwise the high will continue to provide quiet conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny. The expected sunshine plus some warm advection after the center of the high moves east today will allow temperatures to get into the upper 80s to around 90.
Current surface analysis places lows over the Canadian Rockies and over northeast Manitoba, while ridge settles through the plains. Upper level analysis places broad trough over the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with ridge passing just to the east of the northern Rockies. ridge pushes to the east while low works southeasterly into Saskatchewan.
347 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Southeast Michigan will hold position through the weekend period at the northern edge of a sprawling 595 dm upper high that extends west to east almost coast to coast across the southern conus.
The lack of dynamic support aloft and the lack of any appreciable low level forcing means that confidence on convective development remains on the low side. Today will be warm as high temperatures approach the lower to mid 90s. Dry conditions are expected tonight under high pressure aloft.
This seems reasonable given the continued WWD trek of the inverted trof across the NW Gulf. For all the southern sites however, have opted to maintain VCSH through the night and morning as an inverted trof advances west across the region. /issued 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ This afternoon the inverted trof/tropical wave in eastern Louisiana that has been stuck has finally begun moving to the west and is creeping into south central Louisiana attm. afternoon temperatures will range in the lower 90s. This will see precip chances tapering off a bit Saturday and aftn temps climbing somewhat but overall we will be far enough away from the ridge to the east to allow daytime heating and the gulf moisture to give us the typical afternoon storms.
The lows will only dip into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
The upper ridge that has been parked over the region the past several days will shift slightly northward on Friday, allowing for deeper easterly flow and a slight increase in humidity. A ridge aloft will remain centered just north of the area.
The overall upper air pattern will continue to drive hot and humid conditions, as an upper lvl anticyclone spreads over much of the Srn and S/Ern US.
Cloud cover has lingered across east central Kansas keeping highs a bit cooler in the low to mid 80s. Have maintained low POPs tonight into Friday morning across the western and northern portions of the area as showers and storms that form in the High Plains overnight may progress into these areas before dying out. With dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s, heat index values will range from 105 to 110 degrees in the afternoon. Persistent moisture transport will maintain dew points in the low to mid 70s creating heat index values that will approach 110 degrees.
245 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Ridging will gradually shift offshore through Friday, where it will remain through late week. Large scale subsidence continues on Friday as sfc ridging shifts offshore, with low level flow becoming srly to swrly. High temps a degree or two higher as low lvl thicknesses rise, with many areas reaching the low 90s, with upr 80s beaches.
311 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A rather pleasant overnight out there right now as high pressure was sliding southeast of the area. In the meantime, a weak cold frontal boundary was draped from the western UP, through northwest WI, into southern MN. After the MCS pushes east, 850/925mb temperatures surge into the 20- 25C and 25-28C respectively ahead of an approaching cold front from MN into the central Plains. Another round of storms expected Saturday night as that cold front pushes southeast into the area.
We expect similar conditions on Friday and Saturday, as the ridge remains in about the same location and the main moisture pool has not pushed much farther west.
Upper level flow will become largely zonal as broad upper level ridging builds to our south over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will build into the area and keep things dry through Friday night/Saturday morning. High pressure will keep things dry through at least Friday night into Saturday morning.
A trough of low pressure north of the border will bring a weak cold front through the Northern Rockies today. This feature will also bring a quick shift to west-southwest flow this afternoon as the southern portion of the eastward-moving trough grazes the Northern Rockies. There is much more confidence that today will be a little cooler and much breezier due to the frontal passage coupled with a strong jet streak aloft. As the trough in Canada moves out of the area, flow shifts back to the northwest and remains dry through the weekend.
/issued 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ Short term will remain quiet and hot as upper level high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Tonight and early tomorrow morning light southerly to southwesterly winds will persist which will help to keep overnight lows near to slightly warmer than what was observed this morning (upper 60's across the SW Panhandle to mid 70's across the Rolling Plains). This will keep high temperatures near the century mark for most locations with slightly warmer temperatures across the Rolling Plains. /WCI Warm and dry start to the weekend as the upper level ridge remains overhead. An inverted trough near the AL/FL state line is progged to move west into north central Mexico by late Saturday. As the inverted trough moves into South Texas, it will cause a weakness in the ridge.
Tonight Through Saturday An area of high pressure aloft extends from Texas, through Arkansas to the east coast. A cold front continues over north Arkansas this afternoon. Warmer temperatures return for Saturday with no rain chances.
404 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 The morning surface analysis shows a frontal boundary stretched across the lower Ohio Valley this morning. Lows tonight in the valley should be relatively close to the ridges given the potential for a few clouds and possible river valley fog. Saturday the upper level pattern will continue to support mostly zonal flow, with 594mb upper level high right around the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The highs will top out in the lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s and a few spots in the triple digits at times.
The biggest forecast challenge for the short term is in regards to severe weather late this afternoon and overnight as a cold front sweeps through the region. Ample instability will be present as the cold front moves through the region. While all threats are possible with this system, with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of DCAPE available, as well as dry air with the aforementioned cold front enhancing lapse rates significantly, straight-line winds are the biggest threat. Although the passing cold front and developing low-level jet should be enough to break the cap, as mentioned before, just how far south the storms are able to build is a question.
Temperatures at this hour range from the low to upper 70s.
232 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A warm and dry conditions will continue today before cooling off behind a cold front on Friday. There is moisture aloft that will support storm formation but these are expected to be dry thunderstorms as the lower elevations continue to have RH's that drop down into the mid to upper teens. SPC has placed areas northwest of Billings in a marginal (isolated severe storms) as there are steep lapse rates that will be behind the cold front that will move through. Temperatures have cooled back towards normal but RH's will still drop into the low to mid 20s for most locations. Saturday will be cooler behind the cold front with highs in the mid 80s.
331 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. An upper ridge will remain overhead centered just to our north. Better moisture and an upper impulse along with orographic effects or convergence along a lee side trough may promote scattered thunderstorms mainly to our north which may drift SE and remain intact into our N/NE FA, per latest high res models. The upper ridge may weaken slightly over the area as the center of the ridge moves slightly westward.
A cold front is progged by the models to move southeast out of Montana into northwest Wyoming between 06Z- 12Z Saturday and expect generally dry conditions due to timing and still lack of moisture.
The trend toward warmer & drier conditions will persist for the remainder of the period w/ widespread highs in the 90s to near 100 F along/east of the Laramie Range. Cold front passes across the CWA Sat night in the wake of the Montana low pressure system.
High pressure aloft expanding west into the Great Basin will bring hot temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
Warmer air starts to move into the region with the building heights. Will remove the chances of storms with a strong cap developing with 850 mb temps well into the lower 20s and 700 mb temps pushing 12C. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 60s which should keep heat indices in the lower to mid 90s.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form along a warm front as it lifts northeast across the area tonight. The storms are most likely across the northern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the low level jet and best upper diffluent flow.
Areas that didn't see convection remained warmer but could see a faster rate in temperature drop with better radiational cooling potential under clearer skies. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 75 95 75 95 / 40 20 40 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 73 93 73 94 / 40 20 40 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 93 73 93 72 94 / 40 20 40 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 69 90 69 91 / 50 20 40 20 40.
253 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Hot and dry weather will continue through the early part of the weekend as the center of the mid- and upper-level ridge drifts eastward. Overnight temperatures Friday night will feel cool relative to the last several nights, with lows bottoming out in the low 70s and middle 70s across the Caprock and Rolling Plains, respectively. The high temperature this afternoon for Lubbock is forecast to be 101 deg F, which would make it the 10th day in a row with high temperatures at or above 100 deg F. The longest consecutive stretch of days where the high temperature for Lubbock was at or above 100 deg F is 12 days, set in 1980.
Temperatures will approach 90 degrees across most of the southern half of the area with the exception of the ridges. Broad upper level ridging, and weak high pressure, will keep the region dry on Saturday as well.
357 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure will persist. Strong subtropical high pressure will remain positioned across the Southeast United States today. Hot and muggy conditions will persist with H8 temperatures and low-level thickness schemes supporting highs in the lower-mid 90s away from the beaches with heat indices generally in the 100-105 range. Warm and muggy conditions will persist with lows in the lower-mid 70s inland with near 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
312 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure to the east will bring warming into the weekend with weekend high temperatures within a few degrees of average.
753 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. An upper ridge will remain overhead centered just to our north. Better moisture and an upper impulse along with orographic effects or convergence along a lee side trough may promote scattered thunderstorms mainly to our north which may drift SE and remain intact into our northern counties, per latest high res models. The upper ridge may weaken slightly over the area as the center of the ridge moves slightly westward.
The drier condition will again push afternoon temperatures upward with upper 90s to triple digits returning to the lower deserts.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today ranging from the low to mid 90s.
1058 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A weak cold front will push southeast across the region today accompanied by an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the Susquehanna Valley. 14-15Z obs and visible satellite loop show a weak cold front continuing to push southeast across CPA. A few spotty showers or brief t-storm is possible ahead of the front mainly across parts of the lower Susq Valley through early-mid afternoon.
The upper level ridge responsible for our record breaking temperatures earlier this week will drift slightly northward this afternoon.
The tropical wave expected to be the main forcing for any precipitation will likely remain east of the area today, then will push into south Texas Saturday, bringing an inverted trough through the area. Heat indices could briefly reach 110 across the inland Coastal Plains and the Rio Grande Valley, but will hold off on any advisories as it does not seem the higher heat indices will be widespread or of a significant duration. Saturday looks to be a bit cooler with increased cloud cover.
546 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Warmer and more humid conditions will be noted across central Illinois today as afternoon high temperatures top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. High pressure currently centered over north-central Indiana will shift slowly eastward today, allowing a southerly return flow to develop this afternoon. Lows tonight will remain in the lower to middle 70s under mostly clear skies. A warm front will lift northward through the region Saturday morning, potentially triggering isolated showers/thunder. With air temperatures reaching the lower 90s, peak afternoon heat index readings will exceed 105 degrees.
844 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A large ridge of high pressure over the southeastern states will result in low-level easterly flow across the region. Based on the lower PWs over the Nature Coast, think only scattered showers and storms will occur there. The low- level gradient is a bit weaker there so could see more of a sea breeze influence.
Better chance of heat indices rising at or above 105 on Saturday as slight increase in H5 ridging and stronger low-level WAA will lead to temperatures in from the mid 90s to around 100 across the CWA.
Inverted trof will be making its way westward across the upper Texas coastal waters. Did trend POPs a bit closer to the Texas Tech WRF which depicts a touch more afternoon coverage than some of the other guidance, but does look reasonable being positioned on the back side of the inverted trof.
A weak trough in place along the US west coast has been helping to trigger isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the higher Sierra elevations for a couple of days while also limiting high temperatures across our area to right around normal. This weak trough is progged to retreat into the Pacific during the next couple of days as a ridge of high pressure expands westward toward California.
Otherwise, today temperatures will be near the climatological average as high pressure starts to build. Broad upper level ridging, and weak high pressure, will keep the region dry on Saturday as well.
This morning's satellite and upper-air analysis shows a broad anticyclone centered over north-central Texas that encompasses most of the southern United States. In addition, an inverted trough can be seen over northwest Mexico that is rotating around the high. Forecast soundings predict that instability will remain in the low category again today, with CAPE of less than 400 J/kg. This makes sense given that the highest dewpoints are generally across eastern Arizona.
/issued 253 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020/ Hot and dry weather will continue through the early part of the weekend as the center of the mid- and upper-level ridge drifts eastward. Overnight temperatures Friday night will feel cool relative to the last several nights, with lows bottoming out in the low 70s and middle 70s across the Caprock and Rolling Plains, respectively. The high temperature this afternoon for Lubbock is forecast to be 101 deg F, which would make it the 10th day in a row with high temperatures at or above 100 deg F. The longest consecutive stretch of days where the high temperature for Lubbock was at or above 100 deg F is 12 days, set in 1980.
Mid/upper level ridging continuing to build, suppressing most of the showers and thunderstorms that have been seen of late. Generally light and southeasterly winds will become even lighter and variable in the overnight hours as the temps drop into the low to mid 70s.
648 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A rather pleasant overnight out there right now as high pressure was sliding southeast of the area. In the meantime, a weak cold frontal boundary was draped from the western UP, through northwest WI, into southern MN. After the MCS pushes east, 850/925mb temperatures surge into the 20- 25C and 25-28C respectively ahead of an approaching cold front from MN into the central Plains. Another round of storms expected Saturday night as that cold front pushes southeast into the area.
but not enough confidence to mention in any one location given the mid and upper level ridge over the southeast. Mid/upper level ridging continuing to build, suppressing most of the showers and thunderstorms that have been seen of late. Generally light and southeasterly winds will become even lighter and variable in the overnight hours as the temps drop into the low to mid 70s.
441 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 For today and tonight, the rather broad upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region, with pops restricted to the western OK Panhandle and far nwrn TX Panhandle late this afternoon and evening.
A weak upper-level trough just off Point Conception, or about 200 miles west of Los Angeles will continue to drift toward the northwest over the coming days, while an upper-level of high pressure over north Texas builds into the Four Corners Region. The hottest day looks to be Saturday when 500 mb heights peak, then southwest flow aloft should redevelop as the trough starts to move back towards the California coast.