Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ Scattered high clouds have periodically obscured an otherwise mostly clear sky this afternoon as high pressure nearly overhead has kept winds light and variable. This high will slide off to the east by this evening allowing for light southeasterly flow to become more dominant from the sfc to 850mb. The increasing low level moisture will increase cloud cover overnight keeping lows in the upper 60s along and south of the I-10 corridor and the lower 60's across central Louisiana and interior parts of southeast Texas.
Overall forcing appears to be very weak, and the low level air mass remains fairly dry. Latest surface map shows a warm front propagating across central North Dakota with breezy westerly winds. In doing so, a cold front will be push from north to south tonight resulting in a chance of showers northwest. It will be cooler Wednesday with highs in the 60s.
This evening through Wednesday night Midlevel ridging continues across the region this afternoon and overnight, with mild conditions expected again Wednesday.
Weak high pressure is centered far away over northern Missouri, with lower dewpoints but not significantly cooler temperatures spreading southward through Florida. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a broad trough over the western Atlantic. The 00Z Key West sounding shows inversions based at 1500 and 7500 feet, with significant dry layers in the lower and mid levels and PW of 1. Although low temperatures will be only a couple of degrees cooler than on previous nights, dropping into the mid to upper 70s, dewpoints should drop into the mid 60s by morning, providing a welcome respite from the almost constant high humidities of the past few weeks.
A deeper flux of moisture will arrive ahead of the main upper trof/low as it moves eastward into southern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma Wednesday morning. The current projection of the synoptic features with the deepening cyclone as it moves across the area during Wednesday supports a risk for heavier rainfall, perhaps as far north as the highway 50 corridor. This would be focused in an area of better mid-level convergence/frontogenesis, which will translate east-northeastward just ahead of the low from south central into east central Kansas. An area of rain or rain showers with embedded convection also looks to linger longer in the developing deformation zone just northwest of the low late in the afternoon/evening. A couple of rowdy elevated storms are also possible late Wednesday afternoon across southeast Kansas just ahead of the low.
725 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A dry cool front will pass through the area tonight, with high pressure building in behind for Wednesday.
1020 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A pleasant evening and overnight with temperatures falling into the low and mid 60s by sunrise. A weak "backdoor" cold front will push south from the Carolinas and Georgia overnight. The weak front will settle across central FL and wash out as high pressure builds over the area. A weak cold front will push into the local Atlc waters late tonight and bring an increase in NW-N winds 12-16 knots across the Volusia and Brevard waters. , but gets nudged into the western Atlc late in the period with the slow approach of the next low pressure system.
Based on both ridge placement overnight and inherent dryness of airmass in place will again hoist a combo of frost/freeze headlines. Wide ranging temps expected Wed aftn separated by warm frontal zone with mid 60s sw to upr 40s ne. Good overspread of rain expected south of US24 Thu within nrn reach of broad deformation zone north of OH river centered upper low yet tailing off with nwd extent into MI. Gusty winds may persist for the next couple of hours, but will become light and variable tonight as the low level jet moves away and mixing reduces with sunset.
Weak upper Low over southern Utah will exit this evening while high pressure prevails across the north.
336 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Upper ridging will dominate the weather over the Northern Rockies through Wednesday with dry and warm conditions. For Wednesday night, a more vigorous upper air disturbance will track east/southeastward over the Northern Rockies and bring rain showers to the lower elevations and snow showers to the mountains above 7000 feet. 2 inches of rain for the lower elevations and 1 to 4 inches of snow in the mountains.
After Wednesday, drier and warmer weather is expected through most of the second half of the week.
High pressure strengthens through rest of the week with temperatures warming well above average by the weekend. High pressure then builds in Wednesday; however, a low amplitude upper wave is still expected to brush extreme northern California and Nevada for a low chance of light rain north of Susanville and Gerlach. High temperatures will generally reach the low to mid 70s across western Nevada heading into the weekend with Sierra valleys see mid to upper 60s.
-- Gusty Winds this afternoon into early evening -- A Deep upper level low is sitting over Southern Canada this afternoon. -- Near Record cold possible tonight -- The 500mb low will move eastward as a weak ridge builds over the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this evening. As a weak ridge builds over the region tonight, the skies will clear and the winds will calm.
That will be low enough for the low-lying areas and roof tops to see some patchy frost. Winds will become southerly due to a warm front slipping northward during the day tomorrow.
Surface warm front appears to have slowed its east-northeast progression now, positioned just north/east of Aberdeen over to near Watertown. By the looks of it, there are some elevated showers of virga trying to develop within the warm frontal zone along the far eastern edge of the CWA this evening, moving over into west central Minnesota. Otherwise, a strong warm front extending from northwest to southeast across eastern sd was making a slow push to the east this afternoon. The upper pattern at the start of the period features an upstream ridge and downstream trough, with a northwest flow regime, though winds in the mid-levels are rather weak.
In general, troughing will be found across the eastern half of the CONUS.
That will set up minimal pcpn for us late Sat-Mon night despite upper trough remaining over the eastern US.
As a low pressure system advances east from the panhandle of Texas, the pressure gradient will strengthen increasing winds around noon. The cloud cover and southern flow will help keep low temperatures mild, only dropping into the low to middle 50s.
Surface warm front appears to have slowed its east-northeast progression now, positioned just north/east of Aberdeen over to near Watertown. By the looks of it, there are some elevated showers of virga trying to develop within the warm frontal zone along the far eastern edge of the CWA this evening, moving over into west central Minnesota. Otherwise, a strong warm front extending from northwest to southeast across eastern sd was making a slow push to the east this afternoon. The upper pattern at the start of the period features an upstream ridge and downstream trough, with a northwest flow regime, though winds in the mid-levels are rather weak. This will give us some weak thunderstorms potential, which will form along a north-south oriented trough, with a weak thermal gradient around the low.
Strong pressure gradient sets up ahead of the low over the area today and we will see some windy conditions over the area today. The low will finish tracking over southern MO on Thursday morning, with the back edge of precipitation lingering to around midday Thursday.
238 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 A dry cold front is moving through Northeast Montana early this morning which will bring somewhat cooler temperatures today.
222 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Most of today will feel very similar to the past two days as upper ridging, downslope winds, and mixing persists through the afternoon. Areas in south-central Montana will see RH's in the upper teens to low 20s again, th ough SE Montana will be relatively moist in comparison as they'll see some moisture that will bring scattered cloud cover in the late afternoon, preventing RH's from getting down below the low 20s.
That will be low enough for the low-lying areas and roof tops to see some patchy frost.
412 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Low pressure across Quebec will maintain a northwesterly flow which will result in cold weather and some snow showers downwind of the lakes this morning. Breaks of sunshine will develop by afternoon, but temperatures will struggle to get much warmer than the lower 40s for lower elevations and upper 30s for the higher terrain.
In the wake of a dry cold front passage early this morning, a ridge of low level high pressure will translate eastward across the TN Valley today, pushing off the coast of the Carolinas during the evening hours.
(Today and tonight) Initial diurnal thunderstorm development late afternoon in the Texas Panhandle moved east-southeast, with more development than previously expected further east along diffuse warm front within warm/moist advection regime.
With upper level ridging building over the eastern Pacific/West Coast, we'll continue to be in a northwest flow pattern over the middle of the country.
The area favorable for the strongest storms early this morning will move east of the Pratt and Medicine lodge by mid morning as the upper level low moves into northwest Oklahoma. Rain showers and thunderstorms will become more scattered late morning and early this afternoon but the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms will linger across western Kansas until the area of moisture and lift northwest of this upper low finally exits western Kansas late this afternoon.
925 to 850mb temperatures support warmer highs, but surface winds do not look conducive for them. For that reason, will keep most areas on the cooler side today. Thursday should be a little warmer than today, and there could be some afternoon shower development, but confidence pretty low at this point.
Weak upper Low over southern Utah will exit this evening while high pressure prevails across the north. A ridge of high pressure will build in for the weekend.
The high will move rapidly offshore Wednesday night, and a low pressure area will approach from the west on Thursday.
A weak s/wv trough exiting through the Four Corners will leave subsidence in its wake, with clearing skies overnight.
Chances of showers increase across the area Thursday morning and afternoon as a 700 mb low tries to close off and rides from the northwest to southeast along a baroclinic zone highlighted in the lower level frontogenesis fields.
1055 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A mid-level low pressure center was moving eastward, just south of the Arizona-Utah state line early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a vort-lobe ahead of the low lifted northward across the western San Juan Mountains during the early part of the day. Lift associated with this feature combined with difluent flow, divergence at jet level and instability all played a role in generating clouds and showers with a few embedded thunderstorms over the higher terrain along and south of a line extending from the Flat Tops westward to the Tavaputs Plateau. The low tracks quickly eastward along the southwestern Colorado border this evening then reorganizes over the Panhandle region late tonight. A low amplitude transitory ridge develops over the area Wednesday afternoon with relatively dry mid-level air sweeping into the region.
334 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Clouds will continue to increase across the Mid-South today as a warm front moves northward from the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered showers will occur today anywhere north of the warm front. Chances for precipitation will increase by this evening as a low pressure system tracks eastward out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, lingering wrap-around showers with the passage of the upper trof will continue across much of the area during the day on Thursday.
The low will track through southern Missouri and Illinois, keeping us well out of the warm sector and away from any notable instability. Areas to the south of I-70 will be closest to the center of the low as it tracks across the bi-state region and will likely see the greatest amount of rain from this system, between 1-1. While the low is once again expected to track just to our south as it moves through the mid Mississippi River Valley, operational guidance is indicating a slightly more robust area of instability over our CWA.
An upper level low will shift eastward out the the Southwest U. The low should pick up a decent amount of Gulf moisture as it moves east-northeast into northeast AR by Thursday morning.
Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will begin to subside some late this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Stacked low pressure system over Oklahoma tracks right over the County Warning Area (CWA) on Thursday.
Winds will be light and variable with high pressure across the area.
Little to no precipitation accumulation is expected given very dry air in the low levels.
Water vapor imagery in combination with RAP model initializations showed a weak closed low along the CO/NM border which was moving eastward. Surface analysis at 08Z showed a wind shift extending from a low pressure center over northeast SD back into northeast CO. Expect highs today mainly in the upper 70s to around 80, but it could be a little cooler along the KS border. Lows tonight should drop into the lower and mid 40s.
259 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine Light snow or mixed precipitation can be expected today and tonight as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley. Low levels will take a while to moisten up and evaporative cooling is expected to overcome above freezing sfc temps to bring a period of light snow at the onset of the precip. We could also see a mix with freezing rain across the northern interior zones tonight but precip should be light and sfc temps marginal so no impacts are expected.
Based on both ridge placement overnight and inherent dryness of airmass in place will again hoist a combo of frost/freeze headlines. Wide ranging temps expected Wed aftn separated by warm frontal zone with mid 60s sw to upr 40s ne. Good overspread of rain expected south of US24 Thu within nrn reach of broad deformation zone north of OH river centered upper low yet tailing off with nwd extent into MI.
1125 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Quiet, dry weather is expected through tomorrow afternoon under high pressure. With high confidence in below freezing conditions, the Freeze Warning remains in place for areas that have already started their growing season. High pressure will keep dry, quiet weather across the region tomorrow.
Though warmer surface temps should exist here, small CAPE and unsupportive wind fields will keep this convection weak as well. Precip on the deformation side of the low moves off tonight though cloud should linger through most of the period.
Elevated convection above the low level cold pool is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move across SW Kansas this evening. A few storms will develop above the low level inversion and produce hail as large as half dollars. Highs Wednesday will be held down in the lower to mid 60s by cloud cover and precipitation in south central Kansas. Northwesterly mid to high level flow will develop across the plains by Thursday, with ridging over the western United States.
259 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Closed upper low tracking east out of the central and southern Rockies this morning and then across the central Plains states by this afternoon will allow for convection across mainly the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. A cold front will push all the way through the Panhandles this morning resulting in breezy to windy conditions today on northwest to north winds. Quick warmup on Thursday as downsloping west to southwest winds return ahead of the next cold front Thursday night.
439 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Cold front offshore will continue moving away from the area as high pressure quickly builds in. The high will move away from the region late this afternoon with clouds ahead of the next low pressure system moving into the area early tonight.
Cloud cover had spread over much of the forecast area overnight allowing temperatures to recover to around or above freezing. Will leave the freeze warnings and frost advisory intact at this time, but may clear some counties before daybreak as temperatures recover above freezing under the cloud layer. Otherwise, hefty isentropic lift was increasing early this morning upstream over the Upper Midwest where clouds were cascading down the backside of the negatively tilted trof with a distant axis over Maine.
317 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had closed low pressure over southwestern Quebec with a trough extending south into the Mid-Atlantic states.
1045 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 High pressure located just north of the region has allowed for sunny skies, light winds, dry air and more importantly, comfortable temps around 70 making for a pleasant day. Gusty northwest winds also look likely directly behind the low. A brief high pressure axis moves overhead on Thursday with highs approaching 70.
High pressure is moving east across the eastern sections of the country today and will become centered along the mid-Atlantic coast by mid day. Low pressure is developing along the border of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
High temperatures will continue to run from the mid 80s to low 90s, but the lower humidity will make being outdoors more bearable.
After the next s/w drops moves through the Lower and Mid MS Valleys things look rather quiet for the remainder of the forecast.
Although the models are hinting at just enough over the highest elevations along the Divide for isolated showers this afternoon. Highs will run similar to yesterday up north, but upwards of 10 degrees warmer due to less clouds and precipitation down south.
429 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Low pressure across Quebec will maintain a northwesterly flow which will result in cold weather and some snow showers downwind of the lakes this morning. Breaks of sunshine will develop by afternoon, but temperatures will struggle to get much warmer than the lower 40s for lower elevations and upper 30s for the higher terrain.
A large and expansive area of high pressure over the entire eastern United States and down the Sunshine State and the adjacent coastal waters today, will retreat quickly eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean with a ridge axis dropping southward to between extreme South Florida and the north coast of Cuba by the end of this week.
High pressure strengthens through the rest of the week with temperatures warming well above average by the weekend.
452 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Current upper level analysis has ridge over the Northern Plains with mostly clear skies. At the surface, weak trof of low pressure resides across central North Dakota into eastern South Dakota, with high pressure over the Northern Rockies. Another mild and dry day on tap as upper ridge axis crosses the area. Temperatures will be cooler, mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
A weak cold front will then move through the area with offshore flow developing on its wake. Highs will range from the lower 80s along the coast to the upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
309 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Current upper level analysis has ridge over the Northern Plains with mostly clear skies. At the surface, weak trof of low pressure resides across central North Dakota into eastern South Dakota, with high pressure over the Northern Rockies. Another mild and dry day on tap as upper ridge axis crosses the area. Temperatures will be cooler, mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
925 to 850mb temperatures support warmer highs, but surface winds do not look conducive for them. For that reason, will keep most areas on the cooler side today. Thursday should be a little warmer than today, and there could be some afternoon shower development, but confidence pretty low at this point. Wind speeds should remain on the lower end throughout.
A brief period of high pressure this morning will give way to a disturbance crossing mainly the northern half of Utah this evening into Thursday. High pressure is expected to build into the Great Basin for the weekend.
408 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 A low pressure system is currently situated over western ND with it's associated warm front draping through southern MN. As we move into the morning hours a stronger push of warm air advection will blanket the Northland helping to increase the low level moisture and bring the chance of scattered snow showers. Highs for today will range from in the 50s near NW WI and into north central MN, farther north will remain cooler with temperatures near 40 across the eastern portions of the Arrowhead. Thursday will see a more zonal flow aloft with weak surface ridging into the area.
416 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Currently, satellite imagery and upper-air analysis indicates a closed low has developed within a trough, which is currently located in northern New Mexico. Temperatures as of 3 AM are generally in the 40s along and east of the I-25 corridor, while the high valleys are generally in the 30s. With the upper-level trough axis and closed low still located in north central New Mexico, there should be enough large scale ascent for scattered precipitation to continue for a few more hours this morning over the southeastern corner of Colorado before exiting the region by around midday or so. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the 60s and 70s for most lower elevation locations, and lows tonight are expected to generally be in the 20s and 30s in the high valleys and 40s across the plains.
Over Colorado, weak ridging will develop with very slight QG descent over our forecast area. While most showers should only produce virga due to the low level dry air, a few of the showers may be strong enough for rain to reach the surface so the mention of showers seemed necessary. The next system will race toward our forecast area late tonight producing light snow showers across the higher terrain during the overnight hours.
930 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 High pressure remains over the southeast U. High pressure over the southeast U.
High temperatures will gradually increase through the week, as high pressure grows around the region keeping conditions dry. The 500 mb ridge will continue to grow and shift over California in the coming days, ushering in drier, warmer conditions. Coastal areas will be in the 60s on Wednesday with low-to-mid 70s inland, and parts of the interior North and East Bays, including Southern Monterey County will touch the low-80s.
912 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over south central KY as of 22/12Z as satellite reveals high cloud creeping over SW KY ahead of a low centered over the TX panhandle. Otherwise, current forecast is still on track with max temps today reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s with increasing clouds as the aforementioned low pressure system moves from TX to the OH Valley through tomorrow bringing rain chances back to the area beginning tonight. As a low pressure system advances east from the panhandle of Texas, the pressure gradient will strengthen increasing winds around noon. The cloud cover and southern flow will help keep low temperatures mild, only dropping into the low to middle 50s.
High pressure is expected to drift across Central Indiana today. A warm front and associated low pressure system over the southern plains will push northeast toward Indiana Tonight and pass across the Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
The main upper low is moving eastward over northern New Mexico with some energy ahead of this disturbance impacting the area. This afternoon, the main upper low will move across northern Oklahoma and in concert, a weak front/wind shift will move southeast across the area in response. Skies will clear and overnight lows in the low 40s are expected.