Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The quiet conditions are thanks to the anomalously strong high pressure system, which will begin to slide eastwards throughout the day. The LLJ strengthens during this timeframe, and will be advecting in both moisture and warmer temperatures to the region. As for temperatures, overnight lows finally climb out of the 30s and into the lower to mid 40s. The LLJ remains fairly well put together into the early afternoon hours, and should be able to mix down some warmer temperatures for areas west of the I-29 corridor where gusts up to 30 mph are expected. Sky cover will have a role to play, but the warmest temperatures should be expected west of I-29 with highs in the upper 60s, while elsewhere will likely stick in the low to mid 60s.
Expect better clearing to wait until the day on Thursday, though the slightly lower dew points will allow for cooler overnight temps by Thursday morning. With high pressure ridging in at the surface, the drier and cooler weather then sticks around into the end of the work week.
Otherwise, a gradual trend toward warmer & drier conditions will commence today as H5 heights begin to climb in response to broad & flat upper-level ridging now starting to build into the region. A strong short wave is expected to track across our northern & eastern zones later today along the edge of the ridge, supporting low-end chances for showers & storms this afternoon. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms may increase late in the week into the weekend w/ models advertising a gradual break down of the upper-level ridge in response to a deepening upper low over the Great Basin. Southeasterly near-surface flow could aid in substantial moisture return with lower 50s dew points possible for the high plains at times.
Rain activity is expected to taper off this afternoon through early Thursday morning as drier and cooler air filters into the region. For tonight, lows will dip into the the low to mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies as high pressure settles over the region.
646 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure continues to build over the region today. High temperatures are once again below normal with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A weak mid level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley Thursday night -- with any pcpn staying southeast of ILN/s area.
905 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure continues to build over the region today. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule for today under tranquil high pressure. A weak mid level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley Thursday night -- with any pcpn staying southeast of ILN/s area.
A warming trend is underway, with the highs for today and tomorrow expected to hover right around normal, for this time of year. An upper level trof overhead moves southeastward out of the region. Just upstream, an upper level ridge enters The Treasure State, and a seasonally mild day ensues. Expect a few afternoon and evening mountain showers to add a bit more moisture to the higher elevations. With a zonal pattern overhead, the weak ridge passes through the area quickly, followed by the next upper level trof which enters Montana early Thursday morning. The instability, associated with this trof and the associated 500mb Net Positive Vorticity Advection (NPVA), favors afternoon and evening showers and a chance for some isolated thunderstorm activity.
525 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 A large area of high pressure will drift south from the Upper Mississippi River Valley bringing dry weather conditions through most or all of the upcoming weekend. A weak mid/upper level thermal trough will drift south across the region this morning, bringing some areas of stratocu clouds and no (measurable) precipitation outside of a few sprinkles. Otherwise, high pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and just a light to moderate NW breeze with peak gusts AOB 20 mph in most places.
Due to strong high pressure building in tonight, winds will stay up. To the N, drier air & high pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly sag to the S. With widespread cloudiness & quite a bit cooling in the low- levels, highs will only top out in the mid 60s N to mid 70s S, which is about 10-15 degrees below normal. Tonight: As the synoptic trough axis digs down through the mid-upper MS Valley, high pressure/subsidence & drier air will build in from the N. Lows will fall below normal, into the upper 40s in the cooler areas of the Golden Triangle while low-mid 50s elsewhere.
/issued 343 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ It is a cool and moist start to this mid-May day as the southwest flank of broad surface ridging centered over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes continues to hold sway locally. yesterday) expect warmer temperatures today, but still well below average. We are forecasting highs in the lower to middle 60s, but it could be several degrees warmer if/where the sunshine exceeds expectations. Thursday's highs will take a small step in the direction toward more seasonal temperatures as ridging across southwest CONUS shifts east for the end of the week and the weekend. Expect highs in the low 70s with modest H50 increases while surface winds veer to the southwest in the afternoon.
/issued 357 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ This morning have an upper ridge over the West Coast with a trough across MT and WY.
With northerly winds and lowering dew points expected today, look for cooler conditions tonight into Thursday morning.
929 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure centered over northern Illinois early this morning will drift toward Ohio through tonight.
The Atlantic ridge axis is positioned across south FL this morning, meaning southwesterly flow prevails across the central peninsula.
516 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 A large area of high pressure will drift south from the Upper Mississippi River Valley bringing dry weather conditions through most or all of the upcoming weekend. A weak mid/upper level thermal trough will drift south across the region this morning, bringing some areas of stratocu clouds and no (measurable) precipitation outside of a few sprinkles. Otherwise, high pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and just a light to moderate NW breeze with peak gusts AOB 20 mph in most places.
A broad upper level trough sits over eastern Montana early this morning, with downstream ridging from western Ontario through Minnesota. Pockets of energy rotating around the base of the trough have produced some light showers over Montana. As the trough slowly makes its way eastward, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across western North Dakota this afternoon, with forcing possibly aided by a weak low level convergence zone.
419 AM MDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure will rebound across the region mid to late in the week bringing a warming trend through the end of the week. A low pressure system cool temperatures to just above normal and bring slightly unsettled conditions by the weekend.
It's shaping up to be a nice couple of days in southern Wisconsin with high pressure in control. Cronce (Issued 340 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021) Today through Thursday: Looking pretty quiet across southern WI for the next few days as high pressure meanders over the Western Great Lakes. Will likely see diurnal clouds develop this afternoon, but temps will be warmer today as well as on Thursday as highs rise into the 60s again. This will cool things behind the boundary and tend to keep things cooler by the lake. Overnight temps will be warmer as well with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
/Issued 308 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ Dry weather is anticipated for the remainder of the work week as high pressure prevails at the surface and a west-northwest flow aloft develops.
High pressure will bring dry and warm conditions to the Silver State through Thursday night.
621 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 Summary: High pressure still has command over much of the region but is slowly moving to the southeast. High pressure continues to be the main weather feature over the region today giving us highs in the mid to upper 60s. We are expecting drier conditions today as well with min RH's dropping below 20 percent for northern MN and into the lower 20s for NW WI. The pleasant weather should continue into Thursday as the high slowly descends to the southeast. However, given the strong dry air in the lower levels confidence is not high that any clouds bearing moisture would have enough to produce measurable rainfall.
712 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 A large area of high pressure will drift south from the Upper Mississippi River Valley bringing dry weather conditions through most or all of the upcoming weekend. A weak mid/upper level thermal trough will drift south across the region this morning, bringing some areas of stratocu clouds and no (measurable) precipitation outside of a few sprinkles. Otherwise, high pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and just a light to moderate NW breeze with peak gusts AOB 20 mph in most places.
410 AM PDT Wed May 12 2021 Strengthening high pressure will bring continued dry and warming conditions over our area, with highs today and Thursday reaching fourteen to eighteen degrees above normal for this time of year.
1100 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end, as temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid and upper 60s for most areas by the latter portion of the week. Expansive high pressure centered over Wisconsin will only drift a few hundred miles southeast through Thursday night.
To the N, drier air & high pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly sag to the S. With widespread cloudiness & quite a bit cooling in the low- levels, highs will only top out in the mid 60s N to mid 70s S, which is about 10-15 degrees below normal. Tonight: As the synoptic trough axis digs down through the mid-upper MS Valley, high pressure/subsidence & drier air will build in from the N. Lows will fall below normal, into the upper 40s in the cooler areas of the Golden Triangle while low-mid 50s elsewhere.
Weak wind flow in the lowest 3km and modest instability will limit the intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon, but cool mid-level temps and some dry air aloft could result in small hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms.
526 AM MDT Wed May 12 2021 Broad northwest flow continues across the state today, as high pressure builds across the West Coast. The remainder of central and southwestern WY will see a return of warmer temperatures, with highs reaching around 60. Increased westerly surface winds will again bring warmer temperatures to the rest of the state, with widespread 70s for the lower elevations and higher elevations in the 40s and 50s.
730 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end, as temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid and upper 60s for most areas by the latter portion of the week. Expansive high pressure centered over Wisconsin will only drift a few hundred miles southeast through Thursday night.
630 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure centered over northern Illinois early this morning will drift toward Ohio through tonight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Storms ahead of a cold front this morning brought much welcome rain to Deep South Texas, but damaging winds and large hail as well. Expect rainfall to taper off from the west to east, potentially remaining pesky across the valley as the cold front hangs up to the south.
207 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end, as temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid and upper 60s for most areas by late week. Expansive high pressure centered over Wisconsin will only drift a few hundred miles southeast through Thursday night.
The spatiotemporal effects of fog and/or low stratus should be limited, and will quickly mix out by the late morning hours Thursday as diabatic heating intensifies with temperatures rising into the lower 70s. Mid and upper level flow will be weak under low amplitude ridging and a general lack of upper level support for convection.
344 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature tonight. Broad mid-level ridging across the western two-thirds of the United States will provide tranquil conditions tonight.
1009 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 Hourly temps are outpacing forecast a little with values already in the low to mid 60s at some part parts of eastern ND and northwest MN. SW flow should also support continued WAA and we could see highs over perform a bit at warmer locations. Can't rule out a few warmer locations reaching upper 70s.
316 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure builds north of the region tonight. as low pressure tracks across the southeast states. High pressure settles over the local area Thursday night. to the north, ~1032 mb high pressure was noted from the upper midwest down into the lower Great Lakes and the OH valley. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the Mid- Atlantic Thu into Thu night.
1101 AM MDT Wed May 12 2021 Broad northwest flow continues across the state today, as high pressure builds across the West Coast. The remainder of central and southwestern WY will see a return of warmer temperatures, with highs reaching around 60. Increased westerly surface winds will again bring warmer temperatures to the rest of the state, with widespread 70s for the lower elevations and higher elevations in the 40s and 50s.
Over the next 24 hours, the area of high pressure to our north will slowly sag southward and be centered near or over our CWA by Thursday afternoon and evening. The rest of the area will still see rather chilly conditions, with lows in the lower 40s. High pressure will remain in place for Thursday resulting in another quiet weather day. Winds will definitely be lighter and temperatures should be a little bit warmer than they were today, with the drier air staying put. Another chilly night is forecast for Thursday night, with lows continuing to drop into the lower 40s, with some upper 30s certainly possible in isolated areas.
With cloud cover remaining in place overnight, MinT values will be on the mild side with lows ranging from the low-to-upper 60s. As drier air pushes in on Thursday, should see enough breaks in the clouds to increase temperatures a bit more than today's with highs reaching the upper 70s and a few western locations reaching the low 80s.
247 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure sits across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and western Michigan. Temperatures at 2 PM were near 60 degrees to the lower 60s. High pressure will prevail through the day on Thursday. Diurnally driven clouds will dissipate early this evening with another night under high pressure and good radiational cooling.
Temperatures inland will be slightly above normal through Thursday then near to slightly below normal over the weekend as low pressure moves in and deepens the marine layer. Marine layer is slightly more shallow this morning with the weak ridge aloft but otherwise probably very little change today from yesterday. ***From Previous Discussion*** The ridge breaks down on Thu and Fri and onshore flow increases.
At the surface, there is a high pressure over the midwest that is building in.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the low to middle 30s west of the Laramie Range and middle 30s to low 40s east into the Panhandle. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms may increase late in the week into the weekend w/ models advertising a gradual break down of the upper-level ridge in response to a deepening upper low over the Great Basin. Southeasterly near-surface flow could aid in substantial moisture return with lower 50s dew points possible for the high plains at times.
218 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure builds north of the region tonight. as low pressure tracks across the southeast states. High pressure settles over the local area Thursday night. to the north, ~1032 mb high pressure was noted from the upper midwest down into the lower Great Lakes and the OH valley. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the Mid- Atlantic Thu into Thu night.
/Updated at 1206 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ Cooler and drier air continues to push southward early this afternoon, as the old frontal boundary pushes back to the south.
A good radiational cooling setup is expected tonight, given the clear skies, low humidity, and light winds due to the center of the high pressure area drifting overhead. Temperatures may drop low enough in the normally cooler low lying areas for frost formation by early Thursday morning, however at this time it appears most areas won't get cold enough for widespread frost.
A cool northeasterly flow was noted across the region and temperatures were generally in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. In the near term, no significant weather is expected and highs should top out in the lower 60s in the next hour or so. For the overnight period, Canadian high pressure is forecast to be in place across northern IL this evening and into the overnight period. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s for most spots. Temperatures are expected to moderate slightly with highs in the low to mid 60s.
219 PM MDT Wed May 12 2021 19z surface analysis had trough from western ND to the Black Hills to central CO and another trough from eastern MT into central WY. Water vapour had upper trough from southern SK into far eastern WY.
1137 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 Cool high pressure is building over the region with increasing sunshine and brisk NE winds. Left 20 POPS across the area this morning, but by this afternoon clearing will begin to take place as high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley.
1203 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 A large area of high pressure will drift south from the Upper Mississippi River Valley bringing dry weather conditions through most or all of the upcoming weekend. All the lower clouds have gone away as we've mixed well this morning. A weak mid/upper level thermal trough will drift south across the region this morning, bringing some areas of stratocu clouds and no (measurable) precipitation outside of a few sprinkles. Otherwise, high pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and just a light to moderate NW breeze with peak gusts AOB 20 mph in most places.
212 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north and moisture riding over a frontal boundary stalled to the south will produce wedge conditions across the region into Thursday.
Temperatures inland will be slightly above normal through Thursday then near to slightly below normal over the weekend as low pressure moves in and deepens the marine layer.
230 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 Tonight and tomorrow: An upper trough axis will slide through the Mississippi Valley tonight and into the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. As such, overnight lows will range from the low to upper 50s. A warming trend will be underway tomorrow with the return of sunshine which will support afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.
An areawide frost advisory, with a freeze warning for the higher elevations of ern Tucker co.
For tonight, based on the lows we're predicting, have issued a freeze warning north of about Highway M-20 and a frost advisory elsewhere.
This flow will slowly transition to slightly northwesterly as a deeper trough over the Great Lakes slowly translates east. With low-level moisture still filtering out Tonight, lows will still remain in the low 60s near the coast and mid to upper 50s well inland.
236 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure centered over the Midwest this afternoon will drift towards Ohio tonight.
Expect MVFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the afternoon into this evening as a weak cold front offshore the lower Texas coast continues to allow low to mid level moisture to pool along the coastal sections of the CWA today. A cold front is slowly working through the Rio Grande Valley with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms expected into this afternoon. /issued 417 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Storms ahead of a cold front this morning brought much welcome rain to Deep South Texas, but damaging winds and large hail as well. Expect rainfall to taper off from the west to east, potentially remaining pesky across the valley as the cold front hangs up to the south.
246 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 As high pressure drifts across the Midwest the next couple days, our weather will remain on the tranquil side.
Have cancelled the Frost Advisory a bit early as the strong May sunshine has allowed temperatures to quickly rise above freezing at all of the observation sites within the Advisory area.
245 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 WV imagery shows a weak upper ridge over the southwest CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW to zonal flow aloft. At the surface, a persistent NE flow has kept stratus banked up against the higher terrain. Thursday, temperatures finally begin heading toward respectable as the ridge builds in from the west.
/issued 1137 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ Cool high pressure is building over the region with increasing sunshine and brisk NE winds. Left 20 POPS across the area this morning, but by this afternoon clearing will begin to take place as high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley.
With H5 troughing over New England and the lower Great Lakes, and ridging building over the Rockies, we find ourselves under a westerly flow that is scouring out the moisture. High pressure at the surface over the northern Plains has our area beneath a cool northeasterly flow and below normal temperatures. Latest NBM low temps for tonight are a bit cooler up north than previous run, and in tandem with offices to our north, we will issue a frost advisory for portions of SW VA for Thursday morning.
This should pave the way for a slight reprieve from the heat and humidity of late as north to northeasterly winds provide an influx of cooler and drier air to the region. Enjoy the low dew points while you can, because you might not see them again for quite some time! Cady.
Although, still blended in some cooler guidance given we're in a rather dry air mass that has been cooling off at night rather efficiently.
High pressure surface and aloft will predominate through the overnight hours. Primary Forecast Concerns: Low temperatures once again will be the main concern with a good radiational cooling set up in place (clear skies/light winds/very dry air mass) though temperatures are a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer this afternoon than at this point yesterday. with interior areas away from the lakes standing the best chance of seeing sub-freezing temperatures. Ridging at the surface and aloft through Thursday is expected to lead to mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Forecast highs will be well into the 60s to near 70, except cooler near the lakeshores due to likely afternoon lake breezes.
234 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end, as temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid and upper 60s for most areas by late week. Expansive high pressure centered over Wisconsin will only drift a few hundred miles southeast through Thursday night. High pressure remains largely in control through the period, continuing the pattern of mostly dry weather.
1025 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 Adjusted the temperatures for today upwards due to current temperature trends through 15Z being a bit warmer than forecast with dry conditions and favorable southwest winds. Summary: High pressure still has command over much of the region but is slowly moving to the southeast. High pressure continues to be the main weather feature over the region today giving us highs in the mid to upper 60s. We are expecting drier conditions today as well with min RH's dropping below 20 percent for northern MN and into the lower 20s for NW WI. The pleasant weather should continue into Thursday as the high slowly descends to the southeast. However, given the strong dry air in the lower levels confidence is not high that any clouds bearing moisture would have enough to produce measurable rainfall.
Temperatures will warm a few more degrees through early this evening, with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s. Low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 50s. Below normal temperatures will continue, with highs in the low to mid 70s.