Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THROUGH TONIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60) AND CLOUDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE S-SW FLOW WILL BRING THE LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SE MI.
615 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S OVER THE REMAINDER.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAS MOSTLY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
742 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD, AND OFF THE COAST, WITH DRY WEATHER GIVING WAY TO A FEW SHOWERS, BY LATER MONDAY.
1018 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RESULTING IN COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEATHER.
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY.
830 PM PDT SUN SEP 27 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
Specifically, the upper ridging in place from the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains today, will gradually be tapped southward in response to a strong wave moving across Canada. While this wave pushes a decent cold front southward into far northern Kansas by Monday evening, its impact farther south will be minimal. A deepening lee trough ahead of this boundary will result in warm and dry conditions continuing over southwest into central KS. With boundary layer winds turning more southwesterly ahead of the lee trough, these downslope winds in combination with prefrontal warming should keep afternoon temperatures well above seasonal normals via highs in the 80s to near 90.
THE AIRMASS WARMS ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
At the surface our region will remain on the western fringes of a high pressure system centered over the northeast US while broad mid level troughing remains over the area.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE CUT-OFF LOWS INCREASINGLY CLOUD THE PICTURE.
/ISSUED 953 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON BAY. SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A WARMING TREND RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE CONTINUE TO COOL TOMORROW AND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS SLIGHTLY OF THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
HOLES COULD ALLOW DENSE FOG FORMATION AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIMINISHES.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DRIFTS NNE TOWARD WESTERN LOUISIANA.
1032 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 CURRENTLY - A BROAD DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST IS RESULTING IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN AND LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES. A TRAINING SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN IS STILL AFFECTING THE MIDDLE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN.
A positive tilt upper ridge axis extended from the southwestern US into the central plains. An upper level trough was moving east across west central Canada and the northwest US. A weak upper low was nearly stationary across south TX. Tonight and Monday, The upper level trough across southern Canada and the northwest US will move east across northern plains on Monday. Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 80s.
800 PM MST SUN SEP 27 2015 VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
1247 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN TEXAS WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS.
532 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A FEW MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT INCREASING JUST A BIT IN COVERAGE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
929 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
1159 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Water vapor imagery depicts a broad region of moisture advection from the south extending into southern and central Missouri associated with a dissipating upper low. This will maintain afternoon highs in the upper 70's to low 80's for the southern CWA with temperatures expected to peak in the low to mid-80's for northwest Missouri.
SFC/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO FORM OVER THE FAR WRN GULF. AS BREAKS IN THE -RA ALLOW FOR SOME SCT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. 09 /ISSUED 112 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A VAST AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF ITS POSITION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY WEAKENS LEAVING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF POSITION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH INTO THE FRONT RANGE BY 18Z. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AS THE UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND MONDAYS COLD FRONT.
612 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AT 19Z.
620 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS THIS EVENING TO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 30S OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EJECT TWO SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SOME SHADOWING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY THROUGH SE OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
1008 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOWLANDS MAY SEE A QUICK DUSTING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SOME BRIEF RADIATION. THINK THAT BRIEF RADIATION WILL STILL GET TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST.
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. CLIMO MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
332 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016 CONTINUED WARM AND DRY TODAY UNDER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
522 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOWLANDS MAY SEE A QUICK DUSTING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SOME BRIEF RADIATION. THINK THAT BRIEF RADIATION WILL STILL GET TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULT IN LAKE-ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
A POTENT TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE DESERT SW MON WITH CYCLOGENESIS RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL HEAD NE INTO OK/KS MON NIGHT. SURFACE: A PAC COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THRU THE WRN USA SAT AND WILL ARRIVE HERE SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES EMERGES INTO TX MON AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OK MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SE KS BY 12Z/TUE. SAT NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. BUT SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN SAT. MON-TUE: PREFER NOT TO ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE DETAILS AS THE FCST HEAVILY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IT APPEARS AREAS S AND E OF HASTINGS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES RATHER QUICKLY FROM TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.
Lee side troughing to our west will strengthen and gradually slide east ahead of a weak front.
518 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 The pattern across the Nation this morning is dominated by a messy progressive split flow with a significant trough axis to our east. However, despite the northwest flow aloft from the trough to our east, winds from the mid to lower levels have generally been prevailing from the south thanks to the split flow, helping lift temperatures above normal this past week. This trend will persist for another couple of days even as a weak cold front moves through. As for Saturday, despite the cold front Friday evening, temperatures Saturday will likely be similar to today's as the split flow pattern allows little cold to spill south.
636 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 AVIATION DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS QUITE LOOSE WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL AND THEN A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS SATURDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 32 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 29 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 29 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 23 55 35 / 10 0 0 0.
634 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE AS MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE ADVISORY AREAS IN THE RIDGES. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. COLD NW FLOW WILL UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES AND INTO THE RIDGES AND SPPRT SNOW SHOWERS.
626 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY THIS MORNING AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILD INTO NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY AND TEMPS ALOFT RISE. BY SAT AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
525 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE AS MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE ADVISORY AREAS IN THE RIDGES. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. COLD NW FLOW WILL UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES AND INTO THE RIDGES AND SPPRT SNOW SHOWERS.
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT BISECTED THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
RAIN SHEILD EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH 700 MB WINDS IN THE 60-75 KT RANGE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WINDS WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS WATCH WARNING AREA TO COVER MORE THAN JUST THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ON THE EAST SIDE WITH WINDS DOWNSLOPING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS STRONG FLOW. THE CRATER LAKE AREA MAY REACH THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SFC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LOWER SUSQ AS PER SFC PRESSURE TENDANCIES. STRONG UPPER TROF NOW STRADDLING THE TRI STATE AREA (MD/WV/VA) AS IT RACES TO THE DEL MARVA. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
756 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND. AND THIS IS SET TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGES FORTHWITH. ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DEEPENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS SQUALL AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY GREATLY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE RIDGES.
1056 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 UPDATE DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST.
CEILINGS ARE AROUND 5 KFT AT KTYS AND KTRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
524 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND DRAG A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
509 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR THE IDAHO-WYOMING-UTAH TRIPLE POINT WITH THE AXIS OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL START MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MIX WARMER AIR TO THE SURFACE.
410 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY SO THE CHALLENGE IS TO GET SOME OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THIS DRY LAYER. BY TONIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING FLOW TO COMPLETELY DROP OFF FOR MULTIPLE HOURS SO LOWS WILL BE PRETTY MILD.
626 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A NICE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA TONIGHT.
955 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 A TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ND. EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT BISECTED THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
455 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 SHORT WAVE ALOFT PASSING FROM COLORADO AND WYOMING INTO THE PLAINS THIS MORNING IS WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TIGHTEN WIND GRADIENTS ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
A weak cold front was moving through the Northern Rockies this early morning. By late this afternoon and early evening a mix of rain and snow will mix down into the valleys then become all snow by mid evening as a the associated cold front pushes its way through the region. Expect a 3-6 hour period of strong winds in the valleys this evening as the cold front pushes through. Scattered snow showers are likely behind this cold front through the rest of the weekend.
512 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY SO THE CHALLENGE IS TO GET SOME OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH THIS DRY LAYER. BY TONIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING FLOW TO COMPLETELY DROP OFF FOR MULTIPLE HOURS SO LOWS WILL BE PRETTY MILD.
BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING. AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER OMEGA. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE.
546 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
700 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA TODAY.
138 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS VEER WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 500 MB RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY STABLE ATMS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE RGV. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE RGV REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR WED.
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE MID CLOUDS BY THURSDAY SO AM THINKING THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS MIGHT STAY FEW TO SCT ON THU MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WITH BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.
643 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
331 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
1146 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE RGV AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NEW MEXICO AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
Most high res models continue to weaken this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath mid level ridging. Winds will shift around to the north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday.
THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK.
203 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ALOFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH.
525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE PICTURE.
351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.