Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
425 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A cold front is settling into the region today. The upper level trough associated with this boundary is digging in over the eastern half of the country. This will help keep much of area north of the Highway 84 corridor dry Saturday but lingering rain chances will be possible for areas along and south of there due to the previous mentioned front stalling across the most southern portions of the MS.
524 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 High pressure will expand out of the Southern Plains into the Intermountain West over the next 48 hours. It is no monsoon but moisture will continue to circulate clockwise around this low and keep some threat of afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast. caught between the northern periphery of the high to our South and departing low pressure to our North. The high will settle over the Great Basin on Saturday and turn the flow aloft more Northerly. The ridge aloft remain anchored near the 4 Corners through the weekend. with the warmest temperatures located on the northern periphery of the high.
/issued 424 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021/ Large upper high pressure system that sat over the area yesterday will retreat westward today putting the area in northwest flow aloft. In terms of temperatures we will see a slightly cooler day behind the frontal boundary with highs in the 80s area wide. By Saturday morning, upper level high pressure will be located near the Four Corners region. By Saturday night, convection may develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico and shift southeastward towards the forecast area however how far east these storms make it remains questionable.
Cold front will move south and drier air will build in from the NE, bringing an increase in sfc winds with it. Today Through Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across roughly the southern half of the state today as a cold front is expected to make progress toward the Louisiana border. As sfc ridging settles into the area, drier and cooler air is expected for this holiday weekend.
The broad area of high pressure centered across the west will reorganize into the Four Corners region this weekend.
713 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Moist and cooler cyclonic flow will govern conditionS througout the daylight period. A relatively slow evolving pattern with upper level trough/500 MB low hanging around the Eastern Great Lakes into the weekend, with pronounced upper level ridge holding along the Manitoba/Ontario border down into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a weakening mid/upper level low over the western Gulf, with the subtropical ridge suppressed southward from the western Atlantic across South Florida due to a rather strong mid latitude trough anchored over the eastern Great Lakes. 10 inches, but did show some warming in the 850-700 mb layer, reflecting the lower/mid level ridge which is building across our area. Today, expect only isolated to widely scattered convection around the area, as the lower/mid level ridge continues to build overhead. Mainly dry weather will continue through the weekend, as the lower/mid ridge axis remains almost overhead with considerable associated dry layers.
355 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Tonight through Saturday: The zone of cyclonic vorticity advection responsible for the numerous showers/storms observed in the ArkLaMiss today will push south of the area as we go through the evening, but expect lingering rain chances to continue ahead of the surface cold front which should not push south of the forecast area until about daybreak.
High pressure along with drier and slightly cooler air will move into the area on Saturday in wake of the front as it will likely stall just south of the region. The slightly cooler conditions will continue into Saturday night, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Cold front currently pushing across the CWA looks to be just arriving in the metro and helping kick up just a little bit of convection. Lows tonight and tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 60s with even some 50s likely noted in the mountains.
Forecast is on track this morning as dry air advects into the area in the wake of a cold front. Seasonally milder temperatures are expected with daytime highs generally in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. with the mid/upper trough centered near the Atlantic Coast. Based on these considerations, it is possible that some low-lying areas in the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia could drop to near or below 50 degrees.
By tonight, the frontal boundary will have crossed further into our area, with winds out of the northeast beginning to advect much-welcomed dew points in the lower 60s. This pleasant reprieve from oppressive dew points in the mid-70s will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 70s south of the I-20 corridor, and the mid-60s across southwest Arkansas, well below average for this time of the year. The frontal boundary will linger south of our southernmost zones, where the highest chance of precipitation will remain near Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana.
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 High pressure is in control of our weather this afternoon, providing us with a typical summer day. Surface winds will become predominately southward tomorrow afternoon, and temperatures could be a touch warmer than today.
A high pressure center will also shift southward through the evening and become positioned across the CWA by Saturday morning. Enough boundary layer moisture could also be present to enable formation of radiation fog, most likely across central/northeastern MO and west-central IL along with river valleys where the highest dewpoints have been observed this afternoon. The high pressure center will remain fixed on the CWA Saturday, beneath rising mid- level heights associated with an upper-level ridge progressing southeastward. These features will promote abundant solar insolation through large-scale subsidence with high temps in the low to mid- 80sF.
140 PM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 An upper level trough over MT will continue to move eastward while an upper level anti-cyclone over NM migrates and expands toward and over the Four Corners.
A beautiful Independence Day weekend is expected across the Mid-South thanks to the high pressure.
For tonight, an upper level trough will move across the western Dakotas as an upper ridge is maintained across Nebraska. A southerly wind will keep lows tonight in the low 60s. Saturday into Saturday night, the upper trough will bring height falls and steepening mid level lapse rates to western NE during the afternoon.
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Current surface analysis reveals a broad, expansive area of high pressure with Canadian origins centered over northern Wisconsin this afternoon. Much of the Ohio and upper Tennessee Valleys have been under the influence of this high pressure, as surface obs reveal northerly winds with comfortable T/Td spreads. Should be a very pleasant day by early July standards as high temperatures top out in the low 80s and dewpoints generally stay in the 50s. Upper trough will be over the northeast U.
Overall though most of us should stay dry as the cooler and drier air from a high pressure center in the northern plains should keep the area fairly stable. We should stay fairly moist near the surface with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Highs during the afternoon on Saturday should be a bit warmer with mid to possible upper 80s as we should see some good warm air advection during the afternoon.
233 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A fantastic holiday weekend is in store, as Canadian high pressure builds over the region. On Saturday, H5 thickness rise a few decameters, so high temperatures will climb a few degrees higher than today's values, into the lower to middle 80s, with humidity levels still in the comfortable range.
97 The ridge of High Pressure that brought the all-time records to the Pacific Northwest continues to move off to the east.
412 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A cold front will push through central NC tonight. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend. Temperatures tonight behind the cold front will fall into the low/mid 60s with some areas in the far NW getting into the upper 50s. Saturday will be mostly clear skies with highs in the low/mid 80s across the area, which is about 5 to 7 degrees below average.
1158 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Prominent upper ridging over the Central U. Slightly warmer today as heights build aloft with the ridge axis overhead. Afternoon temperatures will rise to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees along and east of the I-29 corridor and into the lower to mid 90s further west across eastern and central SD.
Showers and thunderstorms developing along the cold front draped across our northern CWA will continue to slowly drift south this afternoon/evening. Lows may be a degree (or two) cooler should we get some clearing (lower to mid 70s) tomorrow night.
254 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Cool tonight followed by a warmer afternoon Saturday.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis and WSR-88D radar reflectivity depicts isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over portions of the Hill Country early this afternoon, as mid-level ridging scoots westward. The weakening ridge has opened the door for a weak mid-level impulse to round its eastern periphery, sparking isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The holiday weekend will feature a good chance of dodging showers and thunderstorms, with the influence of the mid-level ridging continuing to lessen each day through the weekend.
1050 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Agitated pattern continues across WY as the zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest runs headlong into the H5 ridge dropping southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains. Most convection will start along the higher elevations of all mountain ranges across the state, before drifting east during the day. Near-sfc air remains fairly dry, so precip falling to the sfc for the lower elevations looks less likely. At the start of the period, expect a building dome of high pressure to be centered over the Four Corners with Wyoming between that system and the overall zonal flow.
1113 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 High pressure will expand out of the Southern Plains into the Intermountain West over the next 48 hours. It is no monsoon but moisture will continue to circulate clockwise around this low and keep some threat of afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast. caught between the northern periphery of the high to our South and departing low pressure to our North. The high will settle over the Great Basin on Saturday and turn the flow aloft more Northerly. The ridge aloft remain anchored near the 4 Corners through the weekend. with the warmest temperatures located on the northern periphery of the high.
(This evening through Saturday) A weak cold front.
An upper trough will continue to dig over the eastern states through the near term. The highest chances will be across the southern half of the area with some drier air moving into northern areas, resulting in lower rain chances in those areas.
High pressure centered over the upper Midwest continues to spread southward, bringing a noticeably drier airmass into the region with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
126 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible with upper low pressure this afternoon, with less activity Saturday.
206 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A well-defined upper low now over NW PA will slide slowly east tonight and hang up over eastern PA on Saturday.
Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer again today with a little bit stronger southerly wind and lower afternoon relative humidity values expected across central South Dakota. Today will see the steady increase in temperatures observed over the last few days continue with highs in the low to mid 90s. As the upper high continues to fold over the CWA, to the west a nearly stationary mid level trough develops in response.
Clearly, the drier, more stable post- backdoor cold front airmass has won the battle, with all rainfall well removed to our south along the boundary in Texas and Oklahoma as of midnight. MOS guidance has been too cool lately, but the latest 00z guidance looks better, and with highs in the lower to mid 80s once again Friday afternoon. Breezier and a few degrees warmer on Saturday, with 1-2C warming at 850 mb versus Friday, supporting mid 80s in all zones (still about 5-7 degrees below normal).
Broad ridging is in place across the western half of the CONUS, with quiet weather to kick off the forecast period.
Main cold front still settling southward and looks like it has made it down to just south of the TN/AL border. Locations downwind and near large bodies of water should be a tad warmer. High temperatures will only rise into the low/mid 80s, with northerly winds around 5-10 mph.
This pattern will continue into the daytime hours tomorrow as Indiana remains sandwiched between a building ridge across the Central United States, and a strong trough across the East. Surface winds will begin to shift more northwesterly though as the stronger low pushes further to the south and east and Indiana becomes more under the influence of a building high pressure over eastern Missouri and western Illinois. Expect highs to be a bit warmer on Saturday compared to tomorrow with less CAA over the area.
Today Through Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across roughly the southern half of the state today as a cold front is expected to make progress toward the Louisiana border. As sfc ridging settles into the area, drier and cooler air is expected for this holiday weekend.
Skies have since cleared, giving way to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the lower 80s.
Isolated showers will continue to be possible along the sea breeze this afternoon, but most locations will remain dry owing to increased suppression from the mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to hold through tonight before sliding west Saturday as a mid-level trough digs in from the northeast.
326 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 High pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday.
A relatively slow evolving pattern with upper level trough/500 MB low hanging around the Eastern Great Lakes into the weekend, with pronounced upper level ridge holding along the Manitoba/Ontario border down into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
southerly low level flow will return on Saturday as high pressure at the surface remains situated over the Middle Mississippi Valley area and a trough of low pressure deepens across the Central High Plains.
326 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A well-defined upper low now over NW PA will slide slowly east tonight and hang up over eastern PA on Saturday.
422 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible with upper low pressure this afternoon, with less activity Saturday.
The blocking pattern, which brought record heat to each coast, is gone. A deep upper trough is now carved out over the eastern CONUS, and the mid level ridge has been suppressed to the southwest. In the lower levels, drier air is backdooring into the region, with sub 1 inch PWATs now into Carroll county AR per SPC mesoanalysis.
1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will sag south into West Central Texas, dropping as far south as I-10 by sunset this evening and then stalling overnight.
Indeed, a cloud line has wax and waned in the vicinity of the Lower Keys since late this morning, producing a few showers, especially in the vicinity of the favored Big Pine Key. Forecast soundings continue to depict rising heights across the CWA as a subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic finally builds across the island chain. Convection will likely be limited to late morning and early afternoon cumulus cloud line formation, especially in the favored vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys.
The high will move further to the southeast Saturday, allowing the cold front to settle across the area and stall.
In addition, low-level WAA will move into the area overnight as an upper-level ridge approaches from the northwest. This will allow for warmer temperatures overnight with lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Much warmer air will continue to spread across the state as high temperatures climb about 10 degrees above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. The warmer temps will allow for decent mixing to occur causing gusts up to 20 to 25 mph through the afternoon. Saturday Night Through Friday The rest of the weekend looks quiet as a low pressure system approaches the western Great Lakes area from the west.
339 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 An eastern CONUS trough will slowly retreat to the northeast during the short term period, while an upper ridge currently over the central CONUS migrates eastward. At the surface, high pressure centered along the IL/WI border late today will slowly move to the vicinity of western KY by the end of the period. For temperatures, one more mild/below normal day will occur Saturday as the modifying low level thermal trough axis moves over us. Both nights will be relatively cool, although Saturday night should be a bit warmer as warm air advection gets underway.
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates upper level ridge over the Northern Plains and southern Canada. Subsidence underneath the ridge has allowed for mostly sunny skies with some diurnal cumulus developed across the region per the latest visible satellite imagery. With ridge aloft and at the surface.
209 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 The pattern aloft features a digging trough centered near the Great Lakes region with ridging suppressed well south of Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis has shifted southward as a frontal boundary sinks toward northern Florida.
Forecast is on track this morning as dry air advects into the area in the wake of a cold front. VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the period at all sites as dry air and high pressure build across the region. Seasonally milder temperatures are expected with daytime highs generally in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. with the mid/upper trough centered near the Atlantic Coast. Based on these considerations, it is possible that some low-lying areas in the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia could drop to near or below 50 degrees.
These clouds are the result of surface heating under the cool air mass being supplied by breezy north wind, both contributing to slightly below normal afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s. Even cooler readings limited to the 60s are being reported in the onshore flow regions of the Thumb shoreline that are in full sun. This is followed by a wave of low pressure rounding the sharp upper level ridge over the Plains states. This presents a peculiar setup of a north to south moving warm front associated with low pressure originating from the Hudson Bay region. Clouds spread through the rest of SE MI into early afternoon with enough late day breaks and increased westerly wind for rebounding temperatures into the lower and mid 80s.
124 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A cold front will push through the region today and tonight bringing showers and thunderstorms. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid-Atlantic States today. This will bring a cold front across the Appalachians and into the forecast area by tonight. Highs today should be in the low to mid 80s. This is when the cold front will push into the forecast area from the Piedmont. Cold front will be well south of the forecast area Saturday morning then stall Saturday afternoon across the northern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will be building in from the Mid MS Valley with the upper level trough pushing offshore during the afternoon hours.
The warm air is under the ridge, which extends through the northern Plains to north of the Manitoba Lakes. Meanwhile the lower Great Lakes region is on the eastern periphery of the ridge in the cooler northeast flow, with 60s lakeside and 70s elsewhere. The pendulum will quickly swing back upward as the ridge axis will slowly shift east through the weekend while losing some of its strength. KMD 339 AM CDT A ridge of high pressure, both and the surface and aloft, will move over the area late in the weekend. A very warm airmass accompanying this ridge will thus result in a very warm and increasingly humid day across the area for Independence Day. The threat for thunderstorms continues to look very low due to capping and little focus for forced ascent under the high pressure ridge.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain, will redevelop this afternoon.
Upper trough axis shifts eastward on Saturday with ridging beginning to slowly build in from the west.
216 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A well-defined upper low now over NW PA will slide slowly east tonight and hang up over eastern PA on Saturday.
1039 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trof across Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper level high located near Lake Winnipeg. This low will slowly move east-northeast today. With marginal shear and high freezing level, minimal threat for severe hail. Shear is a bit stronger ahead of surface trof, especially across northwest South Dakota.
Local radar suggests isold SHRAs wl affect cntrl and se TAF sites through 03Z this evening as a weak cold front drops through the area. /22/ Tonight through Saturday: The zone of cyclonic vorticity advection responsible for the numerous showers/storms observed in the ArkLaMiss today will push south of the area as we go through the evening, but expect lingering rain chances to continue ahead of the surface cold front which should not push south of the forecast area until about daybreak.
542 PM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 An upper level trough over MT will continue to move eastward while an upper level anti-cyclone over NM migrates and expands toward and over the Four Corners.
724 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Cool tonight followed by a warmer afternoon Saturday.
224 PM PDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible over the high sierra each afternoon through the weekend. Some cumulus clouds developing over the higher terrain of the sierra.
702 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 (This evening through Saturday) A weak cold front.
Over our southern areas there is a weakening upper level low bringing moisture into our area. Friday into Saturday the upper level low over southern Idaho weakens and move northeast as high pressure builds in well to our south over the four corner region. By Saturday high pressure builds in enough that afternoon thunderstorm coverage will likely be isolated to scattered in our northern areas, the Central mountains and the Montana divide, with little thunderstorm chances in our southern areas.
720 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 High pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday.
An upper level trough over MT will continue to move eastward while an upper level anti-cyclone over NM migrates and expands toward and over the Four Corners.
Overnight lows continue in the low-mid 70s. Increasing coverage is due in part to a mid level trough that will dig across the eastern CONUS. Lows in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s at the coast.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer today than those of yesterday, with the warmest temps continuing to be in the northern Sacramento Valley where highs top out anywhere from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon. Main driver for any storm chances in our area through the weekend is the high pressure located across the Desert Southwest.
745 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 West-central and southwest FL will remain sandwiched between a stalled frontal boundary in north FL and high pressure stretching west along the Florida Keys for the next 24 to 36 hours or so.
After this weekend, the ridge begins to shift to to a less favorable position and we will partially transition to another heat wave, with diminished shower and thunderstorm activity.