Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
850mb gradients from 50-55 meters and tight surface gradient between a high center over northwest CO and trough to the north was generating strong gap winds near Bordeaux. Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain mostly sunny across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle as the upper level low that brought snowfall over the weekend, now closed off south of the four corners region, continues to push south and east. Still decided to go with the low end of guidance for temperatures as the fresh snowpack will continue to keep us cooler the next few days as we slowly warm back up. All models show the jet stream retreating northward into Canada due to a pretty intense upper level high centered east of the four corners region by late this weekend.
Temps in the low-mid 40s along with a gradual trend down in gusts have ended the blowing/drifting snow risk along our western foothills.
220 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The upper low responsible for the heavy snowfall and cold temperatures was located over southwest NM. Mid/upper level moisture was spreading south and east from an eastern Pacific upper ridge into the northern Rockies. The NM upper low will track east-northeast across northwest TX and Red River Valley through late Wednesday with its precipitation as far north as KS. Low temperatures tonight will be 10-20 degrees warmer compared to early this morning. All models show the jet stream retreating northward into Canada due to a pretty intense upper level high centered east of the Four Corners region by late this weekend.
1033 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Areas of light rain and snow this morning, will transition to rain as temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
125 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Enhanced Sierra ridge winds will ease tonight as high pressure builds over the region. These winds will finally subside later this afternoon through tonight as high pressure builds overhead and the surface pressure gradient relaxes substantially.
Also, temps in the lower 30s now will continue to climb per the downslope warming, and this will reduce the risk of blowing/drifting snow over time. Winds along the western foothills and up to Harlowton have been gusty overnight, but generally only into the lower 40s. Highs today will be in mid 30s to lower 40s and as the warming trend continues for Wednesday highs will be in the low to mid 40s.
1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Areas of light rain and snow this morning, will transition to rain as temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 228 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Fairly quiet weather as the low pressure system moving through Manitoba today, reaches northwest Ontario late tonight and departs Wednesday. A cold front drops through the area on Wednesday. The front exits late Wednesday afternoon allowing high pressure to settle in for Wednesday night.
TFJ A wave on NW flow aloft will move from Saskatchewan to North Dakota today The will bring a warm front through the area today. Temperatures will rise above freezing today which will allow the snow to begin to melt. The warmer airmass will be over the region the remainder of the week as an upper ridge moves inland from the Pacific.
306 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Upper low continues to spin over the southern Rockies with a persistent band of mid-level frontogenesis leading to continued precipitation in the southeastern third of the state. Enough warm air aloft leading to a mixed precip falling, with most locations in the CWA reporting freezing rain with surface temps continuing to be just below freezing into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures have generally remained above freezing, keeping impacts somewhat limited. Recent trends in the upper low's track keep it farther south with the northern branch jet sagging south into the northern Plains.
Quiet weather looks to be in store for the rest of the week as EPac high pressure continues to build over the area.
1149 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
349 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 A large area of isentropic ascent and warm-air advection will continue to lift across the Missouri Ozarks this evening ahead of a 500-mb closed low that is now pivoting across the Southern Rockies toward the Red River Valley of Texas. Near surface temperatures will remain little changed tonight given the warmer theta-e advecting northward into the region. Thus, any lingering pockets of freezing drizzle or freezing rain along the Ozark Plateau or across southeast Kansas will come to an end.
This will send a weak cold front south through the area. Temperatures will be actually be warmer behind the cold front as milder air aloft is mixed down. Meanwhile upper level ridging will develop across the western U.
As the upper level trough has pushed through the area this morning, we remain under northwesterly flow aloft with the upper level cut-off low slowly meandering eastwards across the southern states. In the lower levels, winds are largely southeasterly with some slight veering towards the 850mb layer. This has resulted in some gusty winds, particularly for areas on the northeastern slope of the Buffalo Ridge thanks to the downsloping flow. As the day progresses, a weak cold front will be dragged across the area, bringing a switch towards north-northwesterly winds that will create some breezy conditions for the afternoon hours. Cooler air doesn't arrive directly behind the front, keeping our maximum temperatures in the mid-40s.
137 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a complex synoptic picture today with a deep, closed low nearly stationary across the southwestern United States and northern stream trough pushing into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, southwesterly flow has advected warmer air into the region. Given the snow cover, many areas have been slow to warm although the higher elevations of the Black Hills have warmed up into the 40s to near 50 as they sit above the shallow, yet steep inversion.
Easterly flow will become southeasterly on Wednesday with our area between high pressure to the northeast and Tropical Cyclone Zeta moving towards the north central Gulf. Warm and humid conditions will prevail with low temperatures tonight in the lower 70s and highs Wednesday in the 80s.
850mb gradients in the lower 50 meters and surface gradient between a high center over northwest CO and trough to the north was generating strong gap winds near Bordeaux. Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain mostly sunny across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle as the upper level low that brought snowfall over the weekend, now closed off south of the four corners region, continues to push south and east. Still decided to go with the low end of guidance for temperatures as the fresh snowpack will continue to keep us cooler the next few days as we slowly warm back up. All models show the jet stream retreating northward into Canada due to a pretty intense upper level high centered east of the four corners region by late this weekend.
The high wind warning for areas along the east slopes of the Rocky Mtn front continues into this evening, where wind gusts to 60 mph are possible as far east as the Cut Bank area.
312 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The upper level low should move east today and tomorrow and be located over the Texas panhandle by Wednesday night. Models now agree very well that the cloudiness and precipitation associated with the low will remain south of the area. Models have upper ridging nosing in from the west for the CWA Wednesday night.
534 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Main concern will be the upper low moving across the southern plains and whether or not the associated precipitation makes it into the forecast area. Well lean towards the cooler guidance in those areas, and blend towards the model mean in the southern areas.
All other grids are in the ballpark with a very wet day expected areawide on Wednesday as the upper level trough continues to approach our region from the west. /issued 646 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020/ Widespread IFR ceilings will only detiorate as we go through the night with the development of scattered to numerous areas of precipitation and that will continue through the day Wednesday as well as a deep upper level low approaches our airspace from the west.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 73 68 77 51 / 60 90 90 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 71 66 74 51 / 20 70 90 90 30 Oak Ridge, TN 60 70 65 74 49 / 20 90 90 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 71 62 73 48 / 10 70 90 90 50.
Elsewhere, overnight lows will be warmer, but still cold for this time of year. The upper level low should move east today and tomorrow and be located over the Texas panhandle by Wednesday night. Models now agree very well that the cloudiness and precipitation associated with the low will remain south of the area. Models have upper ridging nosing in from the west for the CWA Wednesday night.
The cold, deep upper level low that has brought our active weather over the past couple days is exiting into southern New Mexico this afternoon. Snow shower activity will diminish tonight as the low pulls farther away from the area. Expect much warmer daytime temperatures and lighter winds over the next couple days.
513 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The upper flow continues generally north to south across WY today, with the cutoff low gradually shifting east across AZ/NM, with the broad west coast ridge extending eastward across he Four Corners into tomorrow. Have opted for a slightly cooler forecast, due to leftover snowfall at the surface only gradually melting out late today and tomorrow.
646 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Widespread IFR ceilings will only detiorate as we go through the night with the development of scattered to numerous areas of precipitation and that will continue through the day Wednesday as well as a deep upper level low approaches our airspace from the west. Conditions to improve from the southwest on Wednesday evening as Zeta shifts northeast and upper-level ridging begins to build from the west. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 50s to lower 60s with much cooler temperatures in the 40s on Wednesday night.
525 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The upper low responsible for the heavy snowfall and cold temperatures was located over southwest NM. Mid/upper level moisture was spreading south and east from an eastern Pacific upper ridge into the northern Rockies. The NM upper low will track east-northeast across northwest TX and Red River Valley through late Wednesday with its precipitation as far north as KS. Low temperatures tonight will be 10-20 degrees warmer compared to early this morning. All models show the jet stream retreating northward into Canada due to a pretty intense upper level high centered east of the Four Corners region by late this weekend.
409 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High pressure over Illinois and Missouri with Tropical Storm Zeta in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Moisture levels already increasing with dew points in the mid 70s and temperatures in the lower 80s.
518 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Moisture rotating around the northern periphery of the closed low has resulted in some lingering cloud cover skirting the southwest corner of the CWA. Despite warmer air moving in aloft, anticipate inversions to strengthen overnight, especially over snow covered valleys. Radiational cooling and recent blanket of snow will set us up for another sub freezing night under clear and calm conditions. On Wednesday, the low starts to lift into the Southern Plains, allowing the western flank of a strong upper level jet to brush over the southeast corner of the CWA. Leaning towards slightly cooler temperatures than guidance during the day.
High pressure will build over the West over the next few days.
703 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track just south of Pennsylvania tonight with a stalled front lingering over Virginia on Wednesday.
650 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Fairly quiet weather as the low pressure system moving through Manitoba today, reaches northwest Ontario late tonight and departs Wednesday. A cold front drops through the area on Wednesday. The front exits late Wednesday afternoon allowing high pressure to settle in for Wednesday night.
Wednesday winds turn westerly as we find ourselves between low pressure moving north of the border across Ontario into Quebec, and weakening area of high pressure to our south. Expect another day with sunshine and warmer conditions as highs climb into the lower 50s.
More significant rain will shift northward into much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and evening as the cut-off upper level low now over southwestern NM moves eastward into the southern Plains and begins to tap into tropical moisture from tropical storm Zeta.
612 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Upper low continues to spin over the southern Rockies with a persistent band of mid-level frontogenesis leading to continued precipitation in the southeastern third of the state. Enough warm air aloft leading to a mixed precip falling, with most locations in the CWA reporting freezing rain with surface temps continuing to be just below freezing into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures have generally remained above freezing, keeping impacts somewhat limited. Recent trends in the upper low's track keep it farther south with the northern branch jet sagging south into the northern Plains.
The onshore flow will keep conditions warm and humid tonight, with overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.
356 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Moisture rotating around the northern periphery of the closed low has resulted in some lingering cloud cover skirting the southwest corner of the CWA. Despite warmer air moving in aloft, anticipate inversions to strengthen overnight, especially over snow covered valleys. Radiational cooling and recent blanket of snow will set us up for another sub freezing night under clear and calm conditions. On Wednesday, the low starts to lift into the Southern Plains, allowing the western flank of a strong upper level jet to brush over the southeast corner of the CWA. Leaning towards slightly cooler temperatures than guidance during the day.
455 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a complex synoptic picture today with a deep, closed low nearly stationary across the southwestern United States and northern stream trough pushing into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, southwesterly flow has advected warmer air into the region. Given the snow cover, many areas have been slow to warm although the higher elevations of the Black Hills have warmed up into the 40s to near 50 as they sit above the shallow, yet steep inversion.
The large upper level low that we have been talking about for the last several nights can be seen spinning near El Paso on this morning's GOES 16 satellite and water vapor imagery. Ahead of the upper low isentropic ascent is interacting with moisture from Hurricane Zeta to produce scattered light to moderate rains across the I-35 corridor. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 40s, with 60s expected areawide on Thursday.
Temperatures will be warmer today than yesterday with highs generally getting into the 40s. Thursday should be a little warmer again with temperatures up into the mid to upper 40s.
While periods of light freezing rain and sleet were common for far east-central Kansas and western Missouri this morning, precipitation transitioned over to all rain as temperatures climbed above 31 degrees by 1 pm. Most surface temperatures across these areas have stayed above freezing so any impacts this morning were minimal, and slick spots were likely confined to elevated surfaces and overpasses where some light icing may have developed. The system that will impact us Wednesday and Thursday is currently spinning over the Desert Southwest before it ejects out into the Southern Plains tomorrow as a closed low. This low will translate across Oklahoma and Arkansas before merging into the westerlies as it moves into the Ohio River Valley. Upper level flow will become more zonal with ridge building in under the northern stream flow.
1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Temperatures have been slow to climb this afternoon, with areas of the Big Country, Northern Concho Valley, and Crockett county still below or at the freezing mark. Occasional light rain/freezing rain continues, mixed with sleet in the Big Country. Instead, light freezing rain likely to continue, especially over colder regions in Big Country and N. Strong lift from an approaching upper low will be moving later this evening after 9 PM, and there could be some isolated thunderstorms along with increasing rain and some bands of sleet in the convective activity overnight.
High pressure across the region will keep generally dry, benign weather and VFR conditions across all terminals through the taf period. Rain chances will be limited as subsidence, drier air and warmer will prevail. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than normals, with most areas experiencing highs in the mid/upper 80s over the eastern counties and interior respectively. The western counties and Gulf coast could see maximum temperatures in the lower 90s.
On Wednesday the bulk of energy from the upper low will approach the area. Forecasted QPF over three inches will be possible late Wednesday Night into Thursday south of I-70 as the moisture from Zeta interacts with the upper low.
Winds will be at or below 5 kts out of the N/NE until mid afternoon when winds shift to the east as a warm front lifts through BNA/MQY/CKV.
and Thursday An upper trough will produce clouds across the area today, especially in the north. A cold front will move across the region this evening. Cloudy skies and cooler weather is expected Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from Canada.
Aloft broad mid-level ridging will continue over the Pacific coast, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. For Thursday, temperatures should be a bit cooler with a colder airmass in place over the forecast area, plus there will likely be more cloudiness.
(Today and tonight) As the warm layer gets closer to the surface we expect the surface freezing line to continue its slow progression westward today. The thrid major round of rain/freezing rain moving over western Oklahoma will pass into central Oklahoma around daybreak and last much of the morning. The ice storm warning will be spacially reduced following the freezing line until its expiration around midday. With northwest Oklahoma temperatures around freezing at midday and continuing to move westward, 1 PM still appears reasonable for the final termination of the warning there. A fourth round of rain is expected later this evening and overnight, primarly over the northern half of Oklahoma while the closed upper low translates eastward through the Red River region. After midnight, northwest surface winds will increase and become gusty on the back side of the low.
Ridge of high pressure just off the coast will continue to bring drier conditions and a warming trend through this week. A ridge of high pressure off the coast will continue to move inland and be over the forecast area through Thursday.
This morning, a closed upper level low is evident on water vapor imagery near southern New Mexico/western panhandle of Texas border. Today this upper level low will move across Texas into the Red River valley. This will bring generally light precipitation to areas south of the Highway 36 corridor. As we move into tonight the closed low will progress across the Red River valley into the Arklatex area by Thursday morning. Highs today will range from the mid 40s across the to the low 50s north where skies may become partly cloud for a period.
A weak cold front will move in from the north and a strong low pressure system in the southern Plains will approach the area from the south. Stronger winds will be possible in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the strong low pressure system to the south and the high pressure system that will move into the area Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will see a bit of a drop due to the cold front and increased cloud cover.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 68 77 51 61 / 90 90 80 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 66 74 51 58 / 90 90 90 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 65 74 49 58 / 90 90 80 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 62 73 48 56 / 80 90 90 50 20.
, a strong upper low will move from north Texas eastward to just south of the PAH forecast area by midday Thursday. High pressure will build in to our west Thursday night, and clouds will decrease as some chillier air moves into the region. Highs today will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and from the lower 50s to lower 60s Thursday.
A large area of isentropic ascent and warm-air advection will continue to lift across the Missouri Ozarks this evening ahead of a 500-mb closed low that is now pivoting across the Southern Rockies toward the Red River Valley of Texas. Near surface temperatures will remain little changed tonight given the warmer theta-e advecting northward into the region. Thus, any lingering pockets of freezing drizzle or freezing rain along the Ozark Plateau or across southeast Kansas will come to an end. At 500 mb, strong cyclonic vorticity advection and a wide diffluent zone ahead of the closed low will help yield robust upward ascent across our region. Meanwhile, in the lower levels, a good Gulf fetch will help transport warm/moist air northward into the region. The 500-mb closed low will lift across the forecast area on Thursday with lingering periods of rainfall.
A few spots remain at 32 degrees, but temperatures should slowly warm above freezing overnight.
322 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Early this morning, broad longwave troughing extended from British Columbia to the northeastern CONUS, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered in southeast Manitoba, with a weak cold front draped west to east slowly dropping south. There is a chance of freezing rain in the far north central / Turtle Mountains area, with NDDOT road temperatures below freezing in Dunseith. Road temps in Rugby have warmed above freezing so thinking this will be a small spatial area at risk for freezing rain.
IFR to LIFR cigs are expected at all sites through the period as an upper level low pressure system begins to approach ERN OK and NW AR. A few spots remain at 32 degrees, but temperatures should slowly warm above freezing overnight.
1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Fairly quiet weather as the low pressure system moving through Manitoba today, reaches northwest Ontario late tonight and departs Wednesday. A cold front drops through the area on Wednesday. The front exits late Wednesday afternoon allowing high pressure to settle in for Wednesday night. The high pressure remains nearby through Thursday night.
A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather over the region, causing very stable conditions in the valleys. On the eastern periphery of the ridge, some light freezing rain and light freezing drizzle are possible.
Otherwise for today expect a transition to sunny skies and warmer afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. The local area will become situated on the northern fringe of a weak low level ridge later tonight into Wednesday morning. Areas mainly along and south of US 24 still look to get into the northern fringe of a precipitation shield later Wednesday Night into Thursday as low pressure tracks east through the TN/OH Valleys. The interaction of a New Mexico upper low ejecting east, and the remnants of Zeta lifting nne toward the TN Valley, will determine how far north the rain shield reaches, with a consensus favoring our southern zones as mentioned above.
A Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed later today due to the potential push of additional higher tidal water towards the lower Texas beaches.