Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1233 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
945 PM PDT WED MAR 18 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY.
713 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE THUMB TO THE MID-20S NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. FORECASTED HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE HEART OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER WITH LOWS PROJECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. AND IT WILL BE LITTLE COOLER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MODELS WERE DIFFERENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AND TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE NORTHWARD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF.
100 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WHILE DRIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND OVER ALL TERMINALS. THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU BUT THE UPSTREAM AIR IS VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIKELY NOT ABLE TO SUPPORT LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE THUMB TO THE MID-20S NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. FORECASTED HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE HEART OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING.
Have shifted the focus for the best chances into the northeast forecast area, where the high-res models have likewise shifted their focus now that they are picking up on this wave a little better.
DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS BUILD DOWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT IN THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.
745 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 AVIATION A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
906 PM PDT WED MAR 18 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH THRUSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF ENSENADA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO LINGER THIS EVENING OVER THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH LINGERS. LESS CLOUDS AND MORE SUN WILL BE PREVALENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A GENERAL CLEARING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 30S WITH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH STILL HAS SOME TEENS AND LOW 20S.
COLD FRONT ABOUT WEDNESDAY LOOKING RATHER SPRING-LIKE GW.
1158 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 AVIATION A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TOMORROW. THOUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY THE LATEST SAT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF WHILE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS. RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH/EAST, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
KEPT THE LOWEST VALUES FARTHER E. INCREASING 290K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC- 850 MB TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY WEST UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH WSW FLOW BRINGING IN MILDER AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. LEANED HEAVILY ON HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR TIMING WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
DEPICTS A REGIONAL SCALE MID AND UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRAS. THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS EMANATING FROM THE LOWER CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WEAK 1025 MB RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR FOG TO AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 60S LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING A DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ (Tonight and Thursday) Cloudy and cool across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures still in the lower 60s. Showers have pushed away, with the main upper low having shifted north of the area. Next upper low will drop into northwest Mexico by Thursday afternoon, with weak upper level ridging in place across much of Texas. The second and probably more likely area would be along the warm front. In either case, for most of West Central Texas the best rain chances will await til Thursday night as the upper low gets closer and the upper low shifts east and allows a cold front to drop into the area. An upper level trough will swing across the Plains Thursday, with an upper level low/trough located across Baja California.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WARMER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WRN MEXICO IS HELPING TO HOLD THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
Most of the low clouds have dissipated at TAF sites with SCT-BKN mid/upper clouds thru the night. /ISSUED 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ The upper low that brought the rain showers yesterday has moved to the northeast of the region with southerly winds and gradually clearing skies returning to the area. An upper level trough over northern Mexico just south of California will move east toward the region on Thursday.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY IN EAST ARKANSAS BUT REMAIN MUCH WARMER IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. JONESBORO IS ALREADY IN THE LOW 40S WHILE TUPELO REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE MORNING. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. LEANED HEAVILY ON HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR TIMING WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. /ISSUED 304 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015/ QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ALL BUT STALLED. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THAT WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE LAKE REGION TOMORROW.
1228 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
For the most part though, we are expecting the low stratus and drizzle or very light rain tonight and into Thursday across the area.
1125 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
930 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Latest satellite/radar imagery show upper-level trof that brought widespread clouds and areas of light rain/snow today is now in east-central MT and moving steadily eastward.
I DECREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN MOST AREAS BY 2-5 DEGREES BASED ON DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT IN AIR MASS TONIGHT AS SHOWN IN FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DECREASING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SINKING AIR ALOFT DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
1145 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
723 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS SHOWED A COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA ON FRI. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH A REGULAR SUCCESSION OF RIDGING AND TROFFING.
734 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE WHAT THE GUIDANCE PORTRAYS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 54 49 62 / 100 100 40 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 51 47 59 / 100 100 50 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 45 52 49 59 / 100 100 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 52 45 59 / 70 100 90 70.
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH A WELL PRONOUNCED CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS/OLD MEXICO COAST. AMPLE INSOLATION WITHIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
948 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND DRY OUT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 54 66 53 / 90 20 60 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 50 68 52 / 90 20 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 50 66 52 / 90 20 40 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 44 69 45 / 90 20 20 30.
1010 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
15z/10am temperatures have already reached the 50 degree mark where the sun is shining, well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower to middle 60s.
506 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE WEST DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING OVER UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY OF 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BIT COOLER.
920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TODAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
1240 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE.
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST DUE TO THIS PERSISTANT RIDGING PATTERN.
412 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2015 A weak weather system moving through today and tonight will bring light rain and higher elevation snow showers along with cooler temperatures.
405 AM MST WED MAR 11 2015 CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
1128 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED GOOD WARMING THROUGH THE LOWEST LEVELS WHICH SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT FORECAST HIGHS TEMPS.
VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TODAY AND TONIGHT BRIEF DIP IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. STEADY DRYING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. LOWS PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
632 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE WEST DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING OVER UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY OF 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BIT COOLER.
1133 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM ERN KS TO EASTERN CHIHUAHUA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UA TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
859 AM MST WED MAR 11 2015 CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
1210 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
700 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 446 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM A COLUMBUS MS TO WINCHESTER TN LINE IS ACTING AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LIGHT RAIN FALLING ELSEWHERE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST OF PREVIOUS THINKING. DUE TO THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW.
935 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 AFTER DENSE FOG LIFTS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THU AFT/EVE AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A TAD COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO FAR THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SHEYBOYGAN WISCONSIN TO FAIRCHILD IOWA. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS HIGHWAY. THE LOWEST VISIBILITY AT TIME IS 3/4 OF A MILE ART BOSCOBEL WISCONSIN. SO WE WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TODAY. SO WAS MORE CONFIDENT TO GO 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENUS.
1102 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE WEST.
830 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2015 A weak weather system moving through today and tonight will bring light rain and higher elevation snow showers along with cooler temperatures.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL KEEP COOLER READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
MORNING RADAR IMAGES THROUGH 16Z SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PACNW ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES /WHILE REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
1020 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL GENERATING A DEEP SRLY FLOW ACRS THE CWA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE COUPLED WITH S/SW FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 LYR HAS BROUGHT A COLD FRONT TO A HALT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE WRN GOMEX WITH NO PROSPECT FOR ADDITIONAL ADVANCEMENT THRU THU MRNG. A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE TIME IT WILL TAKE TO PUSH THE WARMER MID LVL AIR UP FROM THE S.
926 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
AS THIS LOW MOVES N THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED WITH AN UPPER TROF ANCHORED TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SW THROUGH TX AND OLD MEXICO TWD THE BAJA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST TWO PRIMARY LOBES OF ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY ENTERING THE MEAN TROF WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG/RETROGRADE WWD OVER THE WEEKEND. 13 A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO RETREAT A BIT TO THE WEST TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE TWO STATE AREA. FORECAST PCPN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS OVER THE VALLEYS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY.
940 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2015 Current satellite imagery shows extensive cloud coverage across central/southwest MT, all associated with an upper-level trof and surface cold front that will move through the region later today and tomorrow morning. Although 9am temperatures are quite a bit warmer than this time yesterday, the widespread clouds should keep us from warming as much as initially thought.
907 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
618 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015 Similar conditions to yesterday will once again yield temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region today, although weak northerly surface flow over far northern MO may keep those areas a couple of degrees cooler.
Mid-level closed low continues to linger and spin over the central and southern plains through tonight. With the trough axis in close proximity to the KS river valley ground fog may develop in some of these locations given the clear skies, calm winds, and added moisture from the melted ground frost. There is better agreement that mixing heights reach roughly 800 mb, which gives most locations high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. A weak upper level trough will move east into the northern high plains and phase with another weak upper low across west TX. The NAM and SREF surface dewpoints look to high, went more with an ARW-Wmodel blend for dewpoints in the lower to mid 30s.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT BRINGING COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS, THE COLDEST SINCE EARLY JANUARY.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH OUT OF THIS LOW AND WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ALTHOUGH AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT LEAST IN THE CLOUD LAYER. ZONAL PATTERN AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW CLOUD LAYER FOR MOST AREAS. FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SINCE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE 1`0-14 C WARMER THAN TODAY'S.
TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT REALLY DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH. TENDED TO STAY NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE IT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MIXING.
The southerly winds overnight will help keep temperatures relatively elevated, meaning overnight lows will only be a couple degrees cooler than the daytime highs today. This will then set the stage for a weather making trough to move through the area, bringing a chance for some accumulating snow.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. ESP IN LIGHT OF SIG SNOWPACK PRESENT ALG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY/COLD CONDITIONS AS POSITIVE PNA UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST HOLDS DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING IN PLACE. AND POSSIBLY A FEW SYNOPTIC FLURRIES/-SHSN WED NIGHT-THU AM WITH THE NEXT VORT LOBE/TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM CANADA. WITH SYSTEM STILL 6 DAYS OUT WILL KEEP ANY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN (TRANSITIONAL PTYPES) OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HOLD SHY OF LIKELY POPS GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES AND POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED THAN CURRENTLY MODELED. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE BUFFALO RIDGE. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A GOOD MIXING DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW EARLY BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. DID COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE QUICKLY IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS COOLER AIR DOES SETTLE IN JUST A BIT QUICKER. HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF SNOW COVER AND TENDENCY TO WARM WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT IN HEDGING TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH 850-700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-4C RANGE. THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT IMMEDIATELY DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY DUSK.
/ISSUED 321 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW CLOUD DECK. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA WITH TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WHILE PACIFIC RIDGE NUDGES TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA.