Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging influences strong enough to suppress convective development has occurred this afternoon into these early evening hours across mid state region keeping our area dry and relatively cloud free. However weakening upper level ridging influences anticipated by consensus model blends as mid to late evening hours progress. Again, the key player here is how long these strong enough upper level ridging influences that having been suppress convective development hang around mid state region this evening and potentially into the overnight hours. If these upper level ridging influences weaken more rapidly than expected, strong convection could develop sooner than later.
/issued 217 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/ Increasing mid-level ascent and destabilization ahead of an upper level short wave trough moving across the 4-corners and Colorado Rockies already assisting in firing convection from the western Panhandle to the Sangre de Cristos southward to the Sacramentos. The upper trough will move east of the Panhandle and South Plains late tonight with showers and storms moving east with it. The exiting trough will also bring a reinforcing northerly low level flow and associated modest cold advection. MOS and init blend look good with values about ten degrees cooler than seasonal norms.
The latest HRRR runs look aggressive with widespread rain and rain shower/thunderstorms spreading out of the panhandles and southeast CO between about 4 pm and 7 pm eastward to the highway 283-183 corridors. Overnight lows look mainly in the 40s over much of the area, with some of the MOS looking of cooler temps in the upper 30s over the west central Kansas counties. South central Kansas counties may see even warmer overnight lows around 50s degrees, but mid to upper 40s seems more probable from the model.
730 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 High pressure will extend across the region through tonight.
710 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 A trough of low pressure will push east of the area tonight. Bermuda high pressure returns Tuesday.
404 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Summary: A few showers this evening with a passing cold front. Mainly dry and relatively cooler weather is expected for the rest of the week with some light rain or mixed precipitation chances into the weekend. A cold front is passing through the region this afternoon and is bringing some light rain mainly to the Arrowhead but extending into parts of northwest Wisconsin.
540 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front has sagged into the Big Country and northern Permian Basin late this afternoon, with satellite showing a little agitated Cu development from Snyder and Big Spring west into New Mexico just north of the front. This air mass will settle south overnight and help make for a cooler day tomorrow, aided by some low cloudiness for at least the morning hours.
256 PM PDT Mon May 3 2021 Warm and dry weather pattern will continue through mid week, then cooler late in the week. Upper level trough continues to push east into the Four Corners region with a ridge of high pressure building into the West Coast. The trough will continue to push to the east tomorrow but an increased gradient looks to linger over the area and we will see north winds gust up to 30 mph during the mid-morning into the early afternoon.
Model soundings suggest the low level moisture may struggle to mix out effectively, leading to extensive afternoon strato cu. Another low pressure system will pass south of the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. After another day in the 60s to around 70 on Tuesday, expect cooler air to shift into the region as a cold front drops south into the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley once the aforementioned low passes to the east.
Clouds will increase from north to south out ahead of this system, accompanied by isolated showers over the higher terrain of Baker county and the w-central Idaho mountains.
628 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Summary: A few showers this evening with a passing cold front. Mainly dry and relatively cooler weather is expected for the rest of the week with some light rain or mixed precipitation chances into the weekend. A cold front is passing through the region this afternoon and is bringing some light rain mainly to the Arrowhead but extending into parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Cloud cover will build through the evening to bkn-ovc 5-10 kft as a system passes through, before cigs lift by Tuesday morning in light of high pressure.
Winds will diminish through the afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient relaxes under building high pressure at the sfc. Clear skies under the high tonight with cold air advection and lower heights under a persistent trough will all lead to much colder than normal lows. The clouds will keep temperatures warm enough so any precip from the low stays rain or a brief mix of rain and snow.
Will be monitoring the dryline area's SHRA/TSRA, but our TAF site's best chance of SHRA/TSRA is currently expected before or close to sunrise up north and then during the day further to the south in association with the cold front. The forecast calls for these winds to decrease through the over- night hours as the gradient weakens ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, the better rain chances should be with/along the cold front itself. As cooler/drier air filters down into the area tomorrow night, lows in the 50s/low 60s are on tap.
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon still showing overcast skies from a trough axis sitting in Utah. Cloudiness will begin to clear as the trough pushes east this evening/tonight. This time of year makes precipitation-type forecasting very difficult because of temperatures being right on the line between freezing and not freezing. High-amplitude upper-level ridging will promote a warm & generally dry end to the work week across the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 81 63 73 49 / 40 90 90 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 80 62 71 47 / 50 70 90 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 79 60 70 46 / 50 70 80 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 80 59 70 43 / 30 70 90 60 0.
Winds will also weaken through the night ahead of an approaching cold front. South to southeasterly winds will increase to moderate in advance of a cold front.
625 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Currently, stratocumulus continue to stream through the area and have helped to keep temperatures generally in the low to mid-50s. High clouds in association with an upper low over Colorado are moving into the area from the southwest. This upper low is driving rain/snow across the Colorado Front Range, though any precipitation will remain off to our south. That being said, a gradual decrease in clouds is expected overnight as the upper low over Colorado continues to depart off to the south and east.
628 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 (This evening through Overnight) Storms are expected to develop quickly late this afternoon into this evening along a cold front that will be located across portions of southeast into south central Oklahoma. A favorable environment for severe storms will exist ahead of the cold front across this area. Meanwhile, farther west as the main trough begins to shift east out of the southern Rockies, additional storms will develop across west Texas. These storms will be elevated as they form well north of the surface cold front. Otherwise, quite a bit colder air will filter south behind the cold front.
750 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate overnight wit another upper level trough moving eastward from the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday bringing another potentially active weather day.
924 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 High pressure will extend across the region through tonight.
Temperatures are again expected to be very mild tonight with most seeing overnight lows in the lower 70s and even a couple of degrees warmer in a few spots. Similar weather pattern with high pressure remaining over the western Atlantic and south to southwest winds yielding yet another hot day. Coverage not expected to be quite as high with temperatures slightly warmer aloft and some mid-level drying to contend with.
829 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the first half of the week with a series of crossing low pressure areas. Shower clusters, a few with locally heavy rain, are moving northeastward across the CWA currently as an upper trough swings across the region. Expect shower activity to quiet down after 06Z as the trough moves east and brief ridging takes hold.
313 PM MDT Mon May 3 2021 As the trough moves east, eastern MT will generally sit under upper northwesterly flow today and tomorrow as a ridge develops off the coast of California and stretches north over the Pacific Northwest and into British Columbia. QPF is expected to stay at or below a tenth of an inch with the highest amounts under any heavier shower. The ridge will move east into the area midweek.
Northwest winds will be brisk again today, although not as formidable as yesterday given a gradually slackening surface pressure gradient in the wake of the trough. Weak low-level cold air advection will yield cooler temperatures, with afternoon readings topping out in the 50s. Tonight we experience a period of clear skies area-wide as weak surface ridging temporarily moves in. Given dewpoints mostly in the 20s and winds decreasing to around 5 mph, temperatures will lower into the low to mid 30s.
100 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 A mix bag of ceilings expected through the TAF period as cold front moves across the area. Falling heights due to an approaching upper-trough aloft will generate steep mid-level lapse rates conducive for strong supercells. Otherwise, conditions to improve with skies clearing Tuesday night with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s.
Gehring (Issued 210 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: Weak low pressure moving along nearly stationary frontal boundary into this evening. Attendant cold front will get pulled through. After the low and cold front move through this evening winds will shift northwest with cold advection getting underway. The low level thermal trough will then setup which will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover around on Tuesday.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning east-northeast through eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Near the surface, high pressure is building in across the high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Tranquil conditions are expected today into tonight as an upper level trough of low pressure kicks eastward out of the Central Plains, giving way to a more westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure migrating through the Northern Plains will help reinforce a drier/cooler air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas, capping precip chances through late this evening.
311 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Mid level trough axis this morning stretches from southern NM through the northern plains per water vapor imagery this morning. Very little to no elevated instability exists in our area for thunderstorms as the showers are expected to dissipate eastward through mid morning as the upper trough lifts east. Cooler airmass arrives behind the front today as h85 temps fall close to 0C towards north central KS. It's conceivable however for some patchy frost to form towards far eastern Kansas, especially in low lying areas where temps may be a few degrees cooler.
1255 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front has sagged into the Big Country and northern Permian Basin late this afternoon, with satellite showing a little agitated Cu development from Snyder and Big Spring west into New Mexico just north of the front. This air mass will settle south overnight and help make for a cooler day tomorrow, aided by some low cloudiness for at least the morning hours.
334 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 A broad upper level trough is over the central part of the country with a cold front continuing to push through the area.
As such, expecting to see daytime highs in the low to mid 60s across west and north central Nebraska. For tonight, another low pressure system and accompanied cold front is on tap. It is currently over the PacNW and expected to move over the Nebraska/South Dakota border this evening, pulling the cold front through the state as it does.
1238 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Summary: A few showers this evening with a passing cold front. Mainly dry and relatively cooler weather is expected for the rest of the week with some light rain or mixed precipitation chances into the weekend. A cold front is passing through the region this afternoon and is bringing some light rain mainly to the Arrowhead but extending into parts of northwest Wisconsin.
103 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Currently, stratocumulus continue to stream through the area and have helped to keep temperatures generally in the low to mid-50s. High clouds in association with an upper low over Colorado are moving into the area from the southwest. This upper low is driving rain/snow across the Colorado Front Range, though any precipitation will remain off to our south. That being said, a gradual decrease in clouds is expected overnight as the upper low over Colorado continues to depart off to the south and east.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 63 73 49 72 / 80 80 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 62 71 47 67 / 60 80 40 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 60 70 46 67 / 60 70 40 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 59 70 43 65 / 60 90 60 0 10.
435 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 A broad area of low pressure will drag a front across our region later today and tonight.
Aside from this, current obs show temperatures hovering in the upper 30s to low 40s, thanks to light northerly winds advecting cooler air over the region. Given that relative humidity values will fall into the low to mid 20s east of I-29, expect fire danger to be slightly elevated, so proceed with caution if you must burn.
PM PDT Mon May 3 2021 Warm and dry weather pattern will continue through mid week, then cooler late in the week. However, upper level wind support will weaken Tue afternoon as the Pacific ridge nears the W Coast. Two more warm days expected until an upper level trof (currently over the GOA) brings a resurgence of onshore flow and a cooling Delta Breeze. jhm Upper level trough continues to push east into the Four Corners region with a ridge of high pressure building into the West Coast. The trough will continue to push to the east tomorrow but an increased gradient looks to linger over the area and we will see north winds gust up to 30 mph during the mid-morning into the early afternoon.
303 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 A cold front that brought showers and storms to the region Monday continued to push east overnight. A passing short wave trough will support a few showers across the southeast portion of the forecast area today, mainly during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Today will be a cooler day, with a chilly northerly wind and highs peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s, about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the date.
Warm and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday in response to high pressure building over the West Coast and decreased onshore flow.
1147 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front that will be moving eastward across the area on Tuesday. The forecast calls for these winds to decrease through the over- night hours as the gradient weakens ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, the better rain chances should be with/along the cold front itself. As cooler/drier air filters down into the area tomorrow night, lows in the 50s/low 60s are on tap.
As a result, we expect a large MCS to track trough the MS Valley into the Southeast this morning. Additional shower development is possible ahead of the approaching cold front, but these are not expected to bloom into thunderstorms, much less strong to severe convection.
305 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 At 07Z, GOES water vapor imagery showed a trough axis from about KINL-KRAP shifting slowly southeast. Some thin instability is present in the cloud layer and the weak trough is shifting through for added lift - but with the depth being less than 1Kft and a dry layer below 5-6kft bases, it doesnt seem measurable rain will be seen. Tonight the ridge axis now over ND will shift into the area with clear skies and cold air.
225 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate overnight with another upper level trough moving eastward from the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday bringing another potentially active weather day.
937 PM PDT Mon May 3 2021 An area of high pressure will make its presence known over the next few days with warm and dry weather.
158 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 A trough of low pressure will push east of the area tonight. Bermuda high pressure returns Tuesday.
302 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 An U/L disturbance over the Southern Plains will lift northeast across the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio river Valley today and tonight.
Morning rain effectively stabilized the lower atmosphere with overcast low clouds persisting this afternoon. Surface instability is lacking, but there is enough elevated instability and shear for a few stronger cells as the low tracks near the Michigan border. However, the cold front and stable air that will trail tonight's MCS should hold most of the convection south of the forecast area. There could be some lingering showers Tuesday night as the upper trough swings through the region, but then cooler and drier air will move in behind the cold front, and temperatures will drop into the 40s.
400 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 A cold front in tandem with a mid-level disturbance will produce periods of showers and thunderstorms today. High pressure will provide cooler, drier conditions mid-week before another mid- level disturbance brings a return of precipitation late in the week. First disturbance will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning, with a second, stronger disturbance pulling a surface cold front into the region late this afternoon. By this afternoon, the cold front will be making its way southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front in the most unstable air, which should focus them in the lower Scioto Valley into northeast Kentucky. Low temperatures range from the mid- 40s northwest to the low 50s southeast.
850-700 mb RH fields indicate some clouds likely to hold on in the far northeast today closer to the upper level trough in western Ontario. Otherwise sunny day for eastern ND and far western MN as high pressure will be over southwestern Manitoba.
146 AM MDT Tue May 4 2021 Water vapor shows trof axis just to our east, with west/northwest flow aloft extending westward through the Pac NW where the next upper wave resides early this morning. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas, with generally light winds and mostly clear skies. Showers/isolated storms will become fairly numerous this evening and overnight as the upper wave and associated cold front cross the area, with precip waining from west to east towards morning.
323 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Latest surface analysis show a cold front extending from near Interstate 64 in southwest Indiana to just south of Marion Illinois to near poplar Bluff Missouri.
415 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 Deep low pressure circulation, centered near MBS and Saginaw Bay at 12Z, will slowly lift across Lake Huron through this afternoon. The next wave of low pressure, convective remnants from OK/TX, will pass through the Ohio River Valley beginning late this afternoon.
Main upper trough is moving through the region this morning.
231 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 A broad area of low pressure will drag a front across our region later today and tonight.
301 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Upper troughing this week brings cool weather with occasional showers - Upper troughing this week brings cool weather with occasional showers Cold front moves east this morning with showers ending but low clouds remaining much of the day.
1115 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 A trough of low pressure will push east of the area tonight. Bermuda high pressure returns Tuesday.
High clouds are blocking the view to ascertain timing at all three sites so we are leaning heavily on the model based insight. /issued 217 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/ Increasing mid-level ascent and destabilization ahead of an upper level short wave trough moving across the 4-corners and Colorado Rockies already assisting in firing convection from the western Panhandle to the Sangre de Cristos southward to the Sacramentos. The upper trough will move east of the Panhandle and South Plains late tonight with showers and storms moving east with it. The exiting trough will also bring a reinforcing northerly low level flow and associated modest cold advection. MOS and init blend look good with values about ten degrees cooler than seasonal norms.
A trough swinging east into and through the region today, will likewise send a cold front east into and through the CWA through the course of today and into tonight. Slightly cooler drier air will also begin advection southeast into the CWA through the night.
245 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Scattered showers and storms will hang around for much of the morning hours today as the main upper level low tracks eastward over the area. Some of the valleys of northwest Arkansas and usually cooler places, the possibility for a light frost can't be ruled out as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible overnight as main upper trough axis approaches from the west. At 1 pm, a cold front was located near a Jay, Oklahoma to Chandler, Oklahoma line. A warm front had surged north to around Interstate 40. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon and evening as the cap weakens in the vicinity of the the cold front as it sags further to the south and east. Severe thunderstorms are expected to line up all along the cold front/dry line and spread to east as the evening wears on with damaging winds and large hail becoming the main concern. Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday in the wake of the departing cold front.
Rain will come to an end from west to east with cooler air filtering into the area. High temperatures today will only climb into the lower 60s to upper 50s for some areas. Late this evening and overnight, clouds will shift east of the region as the 700mb trough moves east of the area.
Dry weather late morning through the day tomorrow as ridging moves into the area.
Winds will also lighten up nicely overnight as the center of high pressure scoots by to our north and yes, you guessed it, lee troughing develops across ERN NM. At most this looks to allow for breezy conditions as a weak cold front is pushed southward.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front has pushed southward into the Texas Hill Country. Cooler and drier air is slowly filtering in behind it as high pressure starts to move in from the Panhandle. Temperatures at 850mb will range from 8-10 deg C, which should only translate to high temperatures in the low to mid 70s this afternoon, despite clearing skies and abundant sunshine. By tonight, high pressure will settle in across much of the central and southern Plains, allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to become light from the east. Clear skies with a cooler airmass should result in low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.
341 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 An overcast day is in store across central Illinois as low pressure tracking through the Ohio River Valley brings showers to much of the area. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from eastern Michigan southwestward to Texas. While dry condtions are currently being observed, waves of low pressure riding along the slowly advancing front will spread showers back into the area later this morning. High temperatures will be suppressed in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with slightly warmer middle 60s south of I-70. Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest of the Illinois River.