Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 We expect at least one more hot day today, and then a cold front will come through on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures to our northwestern zones, while southeastern zones will likely see yet another hot day on Tuesday. Highs today should be in the lower to mid 90s for everyone. This is a pretty decent upper level trough and surface cold front for July, but the overall wind and shear profile is weak.
248 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure off to our east will continue to dominate our weather through Tuesday, with a quiet and dry pattern. Today's highs will be similar yo yesterday, with a few degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon.
Cooler temperatures are on the way to the Northern Plains following a cold front that will traverse the region tonight into Tuesday. Highs will range from the low 80s north of Devils Lake to the low 90s in the southern Red River Valley.
/issued 914 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021/ 02z Sfc Analysis this evening continues to show weak surface ridging noted from the Tenn Valley south and west through N TX attm. Winds across much of the Lower Miss Valley have gone calm while we are still seeing light and variable winds elsewhere. A quick check of 02z temps shows that ambient temps are within 2 degrees of fcst temps with most being a little cooler than forecast attm.
With a more persistent onshore flow beginning to develop tomorrow and broad/weak upper low pressure remaining situated over the South Central CONUS, this deep moisture should persist with global models keeping values of over 2.
Tuesday continues to look mostly dry for the CWA as a mid/upper level trof axis/boundary should stay to the south and southeast.
Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the lower 90s. Stable conditions expected tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. This frontal progression combined with a broad upper-trough areawide will support widespread convection across areas along and south of I-20 with scattered convection elsewhere. Afternoon high temperatues forecast to climb into the lower 90s.
329 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Early morning temperatures are mostly in the low to middle 60s with the exception of the Memphis metro area where residual heat has temperatures still in the low 70s. Dew points are also in the low to middle 60s, so temperatures outside of the Memphis metro area are not expected to cool much more than they are currently. Dew points are expected to return to the low 70s by midweek. The cold front that we expected late in the work week in previous forecasts now looks like it will be delayed until the weekend.
High pressure placed just to the south of the forecast area will keep mainly dry weather over the forecast area with light winds as well. The increase in southerly flow each day with the ridge axis extending west into the middle Appalachian range will allow ample moisture to flow into the forecast area.
Lingering weakness aloft associated with tail end of large positively-tilted trough over the eastern CONUS still expected to remain stationary over the mid-South and north-central Gulf coast.
Winds have been a little breezier out of the south today where the pressure gradient has increased between the ridge to the east and boundary to the west. H5 maps show a weak area of low pressure over western and central KS this afternoon. Smoke dispersal, however, could become poor after sunset as winds decrease and a temperature inversion sets up in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Not a lot changes for tomorrow, except that temperatures could be a few degrees warmer than today, especially in north-central KS. A mid- level trough traversing the Upper Midwest will get a cold front moving across Nebraska and western Kansas on Tuesday.
MRM Dry weather and increasing temperatures and humidity will continue through Tuesday before a weak cold front swings through the area, pushed by a mid-level trough.
Other zones will only climb into the lower 90s for a few hours today and probably will not warrant any heat products/headlines. Monday, the otherwise zonal flow aloft become slightly influenced more from the northern stream broad low pressure trough from the Canadian prairie. Tuesday, the cooler air from Canada will finally spread through our region for a very comfortable day of temperatures.
the 585dm upper-level ridge axis shifts from west to east through the night and flattens some by Monday afternoon. Monday night, a low passing by the Hudson Bay will spread a weak cold front through Michigan. This feature is nearly washed-out by Tuesday morning (now over southern MI) due to some lingering influence of the upper-level ridge and the dry air aloft.
Warm pocket at 700 mb was over UT, WY and CO with cooler air off to our east. Surface analysis at 2 PM showed a cold front from northern MN trailing southwest to south central SD then possibly back into northwest NE. This period still looks like potentially the most active period of the week, with the highest storm chances and potential for some scattered to widespread beneficial rain amounts.
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 A warm front will push east across the state today, ushering in higher humidity in the form of rather muggy 60-plus dewpoints for the upcoming week. Hot and more humid weather will follow for the middle of the week before a slow-moving cold frontal boundary drifts down from the north. The chance of showers climbs steadily later Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a weak cold front.
Tonight's cold front will bring some cooling the next two days.
413 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure will move out as showers and thunderstorms return to central NY tonight then everywhere Tuesday. The rest of the period will be active as a weak upper level trough moves southeast through the area Tuesday. The trough will send a cold front and short waves through the area.
Attention then turns toward Monday/Monday night ahead of more robust wave that can now be seen moving up backside of 500hpa ridge through wrn NV into SW ID. At the sfc, trough approaches from the west during the afternoon. There are minor chances for TSRA as weak waves round the ridge but nothing that really garners attention.
109 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 A cell of high pressure was centered over northwest TN, but also covering much of the TN valley region. For today, an upper ridge axis over the Ozark Plateau will shift into middle TN, northeast AL and north GA. The upper ridge will be weakening tonight into Tuesday, allowing a sheared mid-upper level trough axis to lift northward with time.
928 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will weaken today and Tuesday.
Warmer and drier conditions this week, with some locations reaching near-record or record high temperatures. High pressure gradually builds in from the south, which will result in warmer temperatures and diminishing chances of afternoon thunderstorms.
Marine air and persistent low clouds will keep coastal areas cooler through this week.
/issued 329 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021/ Early morning temperatures are mostly in the low to middle 60s with the exception of the Memphis metro area where residual heat has temperatures still in the low 70s. Dew points are also in the low to middle 60s, so temperatures outside of the Memphis metro area are not expected to cool much more than they are currently. Dew points are expected to return to the low 70s by midweek. The cold front that we expected late in the work week in previous forecasts now looks like it will be delayed until the weekend.
An upper level trof moves through Monday night into early Tuesday. As for temperatures on Tuesday, did lower temperatures as the combination of the frontal boundary and rainfall should keep temperatures on the cooler side. The SREF, GFS and NAM all hint at cooler 850 temps moving in during daytime heating with 850 temps dropping to around 14 to 15 degrees, thus lowered temperature into the lower to mid 80s.
554 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 We expect at least one more hot day today, and then a cold front will come through on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures to our northwestern zones, while southeastern zones will likely see yet another hot day on Tuesday. Highs today should be in the lower to mid 90s for everyone. This is a pretty decent upper level trough and surface cold front for July, but the overall wind and shear profile is weak.
Otherwise, high pressure will strengthen over the coming week resulting in fewer storms and hot temperatures.
High pressure off to our east will continue to dominate our weather through Tuesday, with a quiet and dry pattern. Today's highs will be similar yo yesterday, with a few degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon.
Southeast flow will be increasing on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and this will further enhance diurnally driven showers and storms in the Pinebelt region. High temperatures should climb well into the lower 90s this afternoon with heat indices getting into the mid 90s. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will be common across the region and highs will be in the 80s and 90s through the week and into the weekend.
We are still within the western periphery of a broad high pressure thus winds will remain light today with an abundance of sunshine expected.
529 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Upper ridge has flattened out, pushing the extremely hot airmass out of the region. Temperatures will be cooler over the next few days before the ridge rebound over the northern Rockies midweek. Even with the building ridge, temperatures are not expected to be as extreme as they have been over the past week.
/issued 321 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021/ A broad upper high pressure system remains parked over the Four Corners region today keeping the FA in northerly flow aloft. In addition, a slight perturbation in the upper level high will rotate southward around the high and over the region assisting in kicking off convection across the high terrain of NM.
a sunny to mostly sunny sky is expected today ahead of an upper level trough and increase in moisture/clouds from 850- 300mb that reaches a line from McCook to Brewster and Sharon Springs overnight. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 60s. high chance to likely pops are expected during the day as the upper level trough and abundant 850-300mb moisture move in. Precipitation chances slowly decrease from northwest to southeast during the night as the upper level trough axis and deeper 850-300mb moisture start moving away from the area. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 80s in far eastern Colorado to the low 90s in Norton and Hill City areas.
A cell of high pressure was centered over northwest TN, but also covering much of the TN valley region. For today, an upper ridge axis over the Ozark Plateau will shift into middle TN, northeast AL and north GA. The upper ridge will be weakening tonight into Tuesday, allowing a sheared mid-upper level trough axis to lift northward with time.
649 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure will move out as showers and thunderstorms return to central NY tonight then everywhere Tuesday. The rest of the period will be active as a weak upper level trough moves southeast through the area Tuesday. The trough will send a cold front and short waves through the area.
609 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will weaken today and Tuesday.
For the rest of the week, the high center is still on schedule to shift into a less favorable position to our north and northwest.
933 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure over the holiday weekend has shifted to the southeast and is centered directly over Tennessee and Kentucky. However, think our typically warmer spots near and west of the I-65 corridor will hit the 93 to 95 degree range. The upper ridge will be weakening tonight into Tuesday, allowing a sheared mid-upper level trough axis to lift northward with time.
On the surface, low pressure is deepening over eastern MT with a trof extending southward through WY and cold front dropping across western MT. Southerly winds ahead of the trof will bring higher dewpoints. Storms will continue overnight before moving out of the area Tuesday afternoon as high pressure moves southward from Canada into the Dakotas.
619 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature today but surface flow will be turning more southeast with a corresponding and noticeable increase in heat and humidity. The high will be weakening/shifting to the east on Tuesday with the majority of the area seeing southeast surface flow and a return to seasonal temperature and humidity levels.
353 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 A cooler airmass from Canada will provide a break in recent heat today across North-central Montana.
High pressure over the Great Basin will continue to bring hot temperatures to the area through much of the week.
A cooler airmass from Canada will provide a break in recent heat today across North-central Montana.
715 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure dominates through midweek.
with the previous trough now northeast of New England. At the surface, ~1,018mb high pressure is centered over the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys. As ridging continues to build into the area, height rises will allow for a warming trend into today with subsidence dominating for the near-term. As such, the focus for afternoon/evening convection will be over the higher terrain of the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains and southwest Virginia where differential heating and topography will likely be sufficient to overcome subsidence.
5" of rainfall with the highest on the eastern side of the county. Elsewhere, broken stratus and low level cumulus continue to press south thanks to a northerly steering flow around the eastern flank of our ridge out west. This same mid-level storm motion will remain steadfast through the next 36 hrs as the ridge continues to meander out by the Four Corners with clockwise flow along the lee of the Rockies. MLCAPE will settle around 2500 j/kg which would be sufficient for storm development, especially in the high terrain where any capping will be negligible.
More moist air advects northward from a weak area of low pressure on the front near Tallahassee, FL. This should increase dewpoints overnight and keep temperatures a bit warmer than last night. North of the river, highs in the lower 90s look reasonable, while further south mid to upper 80s look more likely.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Low pressure at 500mb rides south along the Rio Grande from the Big Bend to the RGV by Tuesday afternoon, with increasing moisture and light southeasterly surface flow.
Latest 18z surface analysis indicates a weak cold front extending from southwest Wisconsin into northern Iowa. The weak cold front is expected to remain nearly stationary over northern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin into tonight.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Our region remains under very weak low pressure aloft along the ern periphery of the upper ridge, centered over the Desert SW. Increasing dew points and warmer temps today will spell warmer overnight temps tonight. Somewhat of a repeat of today can be expected for Tuesday, although temps will likely run a degree or two warmer and coverage of diurnal convection will increase/spread nwd. Some very isold convection may remain into the overnight hours Tuesday night, but this would be confined to our extreme srn areas where moisture is deeper and lift may be enhanced by the center of the weak upper low movg nearby.
On Tuesday, will have a possibility for additional showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances across our southeastern counties and mainly during the afternoon. (Tuesday night through next Monday) Shower and thunderstorms chances decrease midweek as the 4 corners upper ridge extends eastwards across Oklahoma and North Texas. This weekend, shower and thunderstorm increase again as a weak cold front moves through. MVFR ceilings will be possible with the low cloud cover.
A surface cold front associated with the upper wave will move into northwest Kansas by afternoon and into southwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Upper ridging will persist through much of the period but will start to break down Tuesday night as troughing starts to push southward into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the high will slowly push eastward starting tomorrow. Getting to convective temperatures would be more possible than the past couple days given the higher moisture and actual temps, but model soundings still show a relatively dry column.
The low level winds veer off pretty quickly around 2-3am though so a diminishing trend should start to show.
119 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will weaken today and Tuesday.
Discussion: High pressure and subsidence should lead to a mostly clear sky again tonight with calm winds. Expect to see some afternoon cumulus and a very slight chance of isolated convection across the higher elevations. With continued ridging aloft and similar heights, a persistent forecast with temperatures similar to Monday are expected. Increasing chances for convection throughout the week as ridging is replaced with a series of upper troughs producing more unsettled weather is expected mid to late week.
Insolation/low-level WAA will be sufficient enough insolation to warm to near normals in the low 90s & heat indices into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Southeast flow will be increasing on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and this will further enhance diurnally driven showers and storms in the Pinebelt region. High temperatures should climb well into the lower 90s this afternoon with heat indices getting into the mid 90s. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will be common across the region and highs will be in the 80s and 90s through the week and into the weekend.
1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 We expect at least one more hot day today, and then a cold front will come through on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures to our northwestern zones, while southeastern zones will likely see yet another hot day on Tuesday. Highs today should be in the lower to mid 90s for everyone. This is a pretty decent upper level trough and surface cold front for July, but the overall wind and shear profile is weak.
Ensemble guidance continues to highlight the northern CWA as having the greatest potential for the highest QPF, where over an inch could fall in some areas. Precipitation will exit to the east of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon, leaving much cooler temperatures in its wake with highs in the low to mid 70s.
157 PM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Ample cloud cover and rain showers across south-central Montana has inhibited instability across the lower elevations, so while rain showers could continue to occur, thunderstorm activity may be more confined to the mountains and foothills. More prominent upper ridging returns for Tuesday to help temps rebound back into the 90s in south-central Montana, but an east to northeast wind in the east will keep temperatures more moderate and in the low 80s for SE Montana.
A weak upper level weakness located over the north central Gulf (left behind by an upper trough exiting well off to the northeast) will slowly lift northward this afternoon and then gradually retreat westward through Tuesday (but still remains over our region) as TS Elsa progresses north towards the far southeastern and eastern Gulf just off to the west of the Florida peninsula.
Once the boundary passes we'll see it push northward Tuesday morning as a warm front ahead of a low pressure system expected to track from the eastern Rockies today into Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the placement of this low pressure system as it will be fighting against the northerly flow from a strong high pressure center over central Manitoba.
Upper high in place over the region which will help temps get into the 90s across the area.
A short wave trough will push through the northern extent of the ridge over Northeast Montana Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
However, the low-levels remain very moist (surface dewpoints in the 70s in the Rolling Plains) and PWAT values still range from about 1. We will see a little more drying aloft tomorrow and slightly warmer temperatures with more sunshine. However, the upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin will tend to build/expand into the high plains, and this will both reduce the production of diurnal convection in the higher terrain of NM and create an upper wind profile unfavorable to bring any of that convection east and southeast into the Texas plains. Despite the increasing influence of the upper-ridge, Slight chance to chance PoPs remain in the forecast due to the abundant moisture and greater heating which will result in some additional potential instability.
As we go into the day on Tuesday, models show a weak upper low developing across south Texas with several of these weak disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the low from east to west across northern Texas.
Temperatures will once again be hot today, with highs in the lower valleys exceeding 100 degrees. Tomorrow will be even hotter as southerly flow increases ahead of an upper trough off the California/Oregon coast.
High pressure over the holiday weekend has shifted to the southeast and is centered directly over Tennessee and Kentucky. However, think our typically warmer spots near and west of the I-65 corridor will hit the 93 to 95 degree range. The upper ridge will be weakening tonight into Tuesday, allowing a sheared mid-upper level trough axis to lift northward with time.
After Tuesday, high pressure builds and dry and seasonable weather prevail. With a low pressure system approaching, winds will become northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
A slow-moving cold front will focus some convection this evening across central Lower Michigan and again on Tuesday.
Southerly winds east of the low with dewpoints in the mid 50s to 61 at Torrington east of the Laramie Range. a cold front is being analyzed across southern Montana near the Wyoming state line.
1245 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure will move out as showers and thunderstorms return to central NY tonight then everywhere Tuesday. The rest of the period will be active as a weak upper level trough moves southeast through the area Tuesday. The trough will send a cold front and short waves through the area.
More showers and thunderstorms will try to make a run at the western Panhandles this evening and overnight aided by orographic lift from the low level upslope flow and daytime instability. On Tuesday, an upper level short wave trough moving this way from Colorado and a cold front will team up to bring more showers and thunderstorms to the Panhandles late in the afternoon and overnight Tuesday night.
Convection initiated by midday over the Divide and highest ridges farther west thanks to MUCAPES 500-1000 J/kg and the available moderate moisture. Steering flow is becoming more southwesterly as the upper level trough approaches, and this flow pattern has yet to produce a debris flow off the Grizzly Creek burn scar, and nothing has yet to develop immediately upstream of the scar today, so we are holding off on a watch for now. Precipitable water decreases slightly, but will still have enough to see isolated to scattered convection by afternoon over the highest ridges with greatest coverage over the Divide. Model ensemble guidance agrees on a building upper level ridge over the Great Basin.
243 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Mid/upper level ridging will continue to bring generally rainfree conditions tonight and Tuesday. As surface winds become more southerly Tuesday, max temps are expected to jump into the lower half of the 90s at most locations.
The core of the system is expected to make its closest approach to the Lower Keys late in the overnight hours or near sunrise. An upper-level trough in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to result in a sheared system as the storm passes by the Keys, with much of the activity displaced to the eastern hemisphere of the storm. Marine conditions will steadily improve Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, as a subtropical ridge builds across the Florida Peninsula.