Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These will aid in the development of convection, especially this afternoon when a low pressure system tracks east across northern Wyoming with its trailing surface front. Afternoon CAPEs rise to around 500 j/kg across the high plains. Shower/thunderstorm activity will quickly end early this evening as a drier more stable air mass spreads west to east with the passage of the upper trough and surface front. Northwest winds become breezy across the high plains during the afternoon.
210 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 An upper trough located over the Northern Rockies this morning extends south to Mexico while the ridge over the east extends from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.
, rich low level moisture at the surface and southwest flow overhead on the southeast flank of an upper low centered north of Salt Lake City.
330 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 A warm front will spread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms across the forecast area overnight. The waves of showers and isolated storms will continue through friday as an area of low pressure slowly drifts east across the region.
317 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Quiet conditions can be expected into tonight as high pressure brings dry weather to the area along with near normal temperatures.
Low-level easterly flow remains in place today, south of low-level ridging over the Great Lakes and west of Tropical Storm Julia which is nearly stationary off of the South Carolina coast. Westerly flow remains in place at upper-levels with ridging prevailing over the eastern CONUS. This is in agreement with most of the high res guidance. A flat upper level ridge will be parked near the Gulf Coast.
Tropical Storm Julia will be nearly stationary off the South Carolina while a ridge of high pressure will nose into the CWA.
/issued 1041 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/ The Mid-South is starting out warmer this morning than yesterday. /issued 304 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/ Even warmer readings tonight across the Midsouth making it feel more like mid July then September. upper level ridging over the Mississippi Valley will continue to bring hot and humid weather to the area.
Latest 07z surface analysis indicates ridge over much of Wisconsin and Michigan and is producing mostly clear/partly cloudy skies across the forecast area. Upper level closed low weakens and slowly tracks into northern Minnesota Friday.
429 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 An area of weak low pressure over the northwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to move slowly northwest towards the Texas coast with an inverted trough of low pressure extending northeast into the central Gulf coast region tonight and Friday. High pressure in the mid to upper levels will be east of the region, and combined with the surface pattern, this will maintain a flow of higher moisture content (2 to 2.
109 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Quiet conditions can be expected today as high pressure brings dry weather to the area along with near normal temperatures.
601 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70.
Cloud cover was also increased through early afternoon to account for the low clouds that developed this morning. Friday, that ridge will be east of us, so southwesterly flow behind it will start to bring in deeper moisture for the weekend. Temperatures should get warmer than today, with highs again around 90.
High pressure tracking from the Great Lakes into New England will maintain primarily dry weather for the region through tonight.
529 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Large upper level trough across the Rockies and plains this afternoon. After morning clouds a dry slot has allowed most of the CWA to see some sun and warmer temps in the 70s with OGA the warm spot at 80. The trough across the far eastern zones will continue to drift east. The exception will be the northwest zones where some clearing will allow for temps to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Northwest winds usher in cooler temps however with sunny skies highs should still top out in the 70s.
A building ridge of high pressure will dominate the forecast through Friday with seasonable temperatures, dry conditions and light winds.
254 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure over the the Great Lakes area and Low pressure over the northern Plains will continue to shift eastward over the upcoming day, shifting the advection of warmer moister air from the south into Illinois. ahead of an approaching cold front.
Upper level trough is lifting from the northern Rockies into the northern high plains. There are some minor model differences but at this time a consensus solution places the highest qpf in an area bounded by Dickinson. Strong meridional flow sets up over western ND today as the upper level low lifts from the northern high plains into western ND. Precipitation tapers from west to east on Friday as the closed low begins to fill and moves into far eastern ND by late afternoon.
upper low over Montana to shift into western ND by evening. A cooler column will drop minimums into the 40s most areas.
Dry slotting will help to limit precipitation totals over the James River Valley, and the highest precipitation totals should remain west of the Missouri River Valley. Lingering showers and a stray thunderstorm will be possible on the backside of the low through Friday afternoon.
Water vapor loop early this afternoon shows an upper low across norther Rockies moving eastward onto the northern Plains. Low level response this far south has been subtle, but light southerly winds have returned to the area as pressures fall across the High Plains. Surface observations indicate lee cyclogenesis in favored region north of the Raton Mesa in southeast Colorado and short term models shift the low east into Southwest Kansas tonight into early and weakens as upper opens and moves northeast into Ontario. Thunderstorms may form near and ahead of a cold front across the northwest portion of the area tomorrow in an area with stronger mid-upper flow may support more organized/sustained storms and if enough destabilization occurs isolated severe thunderstorms may occur.
Models have the upper trough continue to weaken and push east ward across the CWA this evening. The low level winds should adhere to normal drainage patterns by later evening and continue overnight. There is a tad of CAPE progged for the mountians, foothills and Palmer ridge Friday afternoon. Will leave the 10-30%s in for the eastern mountians, foothills, Park county and the Palmer ridge. For temperatures, Friday's highs should be 0-1 C cooler than today's highs.
330 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 High pressure in the vicinity will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Friday night.
209 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. With Julia offshore and the ridge to the west, a tight pressure gradient will produce breezy NE winds this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70.
These storms will be initiating along the weak cold front/surface convergence zone. The aforementioned cold front will move into the area tonight, probably reaching the southeast 1/3 or so of the DDC forecast area by midday Friday.
119 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure passes to our east today.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be mostly in the lower 90s across the area.
700 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70.
141 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. With Julia offshore and the ridge to the west, a tight pressure gradient will produce breezy NE winds this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70.
Britt A weak RIDGE aloft exists over our region early this morning. The cold front that moved thru our region 24hrs ago has made it to the Deep South. RIDGE aloft and a surface front well to the south with easterly flow. The main difference will be in southeast MO and far southern IL where higher amounts of clouds and the front now being thru those areas should result in a cooler day from yesterday.
348 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 Pattern remains dominated by persistent TS Julia to the east and WSWly flow ahead of slow moving upper trough over the Western CONUS.
339 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure over New England tonight will move offshore Friday.
While the cold front exits east pretty quickly Friday morning, chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms will remain as the 500MB low moves over eastern ND 15-18Z Friday.
1130 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016 UPDATED AVIATION Upper level low centered over eastern MT this morning shifts east into the Dakotas this afternoon. Dry and warmer conditions expected this afternoon as weak upper level ridging and dry northerly flow aloft develops over the region.
Seasonable temperatures today then a warming trend Friday and through the weekend as high pressure builds and weak offshore flow develops.
Water vapor satellite loops indicate that an upper level low was over northern Utah/southern Idaho as of 08z. The 00z upper air analysis indicates that a trough extends southwestward from this low into northern California.
But a lack of any strong trough moving across as well as a generally zonal flow regime means any front that does pass won't progress too far south and will then quickly lift back into/through the area.
653 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Humidity will be on the increase Friday ahead of approaching low pressure and a cold front for the weekend. Easterly low level flow from exiting high pressure will keep some stratus into the southeast ridges overnight with mid and high clouds elsewhere. Dew points will begin to increase into the 60s Friday as moisture returns ahead of an approaching mid level trough and frontal boundary. Southeast fetch into the ridges will also bring isolated showers. A broad upper trough will plague the region over the weekend causing widespread rain as a slow moving surface boundary crosses the forecast area.
Spin of upper low seems to be located over SE Montana early this afternoon. All of this will gradually weaken and diminish through the evening as the upper low shifts east well into the Dakotas after midnight. Will begin to see a drier and warmer pattern develop on Friday and continue into the weekend, as the upper low from Thursday slowly drifts eastward into Minnesota.
Ahead of this, strong low-level moist advection continues early this morning with surface dewpoints currently in the lower to mid 60s with upper 60s forecast by this afternoon. This is ahead of a fairly weak Pacific front which per latest surface analysis, extends south from low pressure over southwest North Dakota into far western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow in advance of the upper trough, in addition to south/southeasterly low level flow should significantly increase deep layer shear by afternoon.
High pressure over the region will maintain status quo, with mostly clear skies inland and low clouds along the coast through the remainder of the workweek.
The upper level low pressure system moving into the northern Plains later today will leave a cool and generally dry air mass over Utah and southwest Wyoming. Temperatures will warm during the weekend as high pressure aloft builds over the region. The upper low heading toward the northern plains states late this morning will leave Utah under an increasingly stable northwest flow aloft heading into the weekend.
206 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 High pressure and dry conditions will be present today. A warm front will lift northwards across the area on Friday. Drier and cooler airmass to affect the region today. Mid/Upper level ridge to build east becoming centered over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes by late afternoon. Stratus which developed in the post frontal environment across northern Ky and portions of the lower Scioto Valley will slowly erode. Cooler and less humid air will be in place across the region today. High pressure will allow for dry conditions. A warm front will lift northwards during the day on Friday.
113 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes today will shift east Friday.
138 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build south over the region tonight and Friday providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s most locations under partly cloudy skies. an inverted trof with and area of low pressure over the west central gulf this afternoon continues to bring us these storms today.
Ridging influences sfc and aloft will continue to provide for dry conditions thru tonight, with the chance of iso shwrs/tstms developing as Fri afternoon progresses across most of the mid state west of the Cumberland Plateau Region, as upper level ridging influences begin to shift ewd. A more substantial sfc cold front, will approach the mid state as the upcoming weekend progresses. Consensus model solutions have merged now as compared to this time yesterday in showing possible passage of this sfc cold front late Sun night/Mon morning, per model and national guidance leans.
Most models show this low moving a little slower and approaching the coast sometime late Friday morning and moving either inland or north along the coast Friday afternoon into the evening hours weakening at that time. As the low continues to be directed in our direction would expect convection to develop anytime, especially once again during the afternoon hours Friday with daytime heating aiding some surface forcing. Have lowered max Temps on Friday into the lower to mid 90s rain and clouds increase earlier, which is possible in a tropical atmosphere, temperatures might remain the 80s.
As the upper level trough moves eastward over the northern Great Plains, a cold front will come through the area Friday during the day and bring more chances for precip ahead of and along the front.
An upper disturbance spinning eastward across Wyoming into Nebraska will send a cold front south through the eastern plains this evening. As the front continues south from the immediate Pikes Peak region, it will gradually lose it's punch and mainly become a northerly wind shift ushering in cooler air.
Cooler at most locations based on thickness trends.
Friday Night Through Thursday NWP models continue to be fairly consistent in clearing out showers and thunderstorms from west to east Friday night as a cold front departs the region to the east.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than over the past several days, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s across most locations, though Friday will be slightly warmer. Where rain persists could keep temperatures a bit cooler than currently forecast.
An upper low currently centered over Wibaux county, Montana will continue to lift into North Dakota this evening and overnight. Wraparound precipitation will continue over the lower yellowstone valley and adjoining areas but will gradually taper off from west to east through the night.
Weak upper ridging over the area early this morning with a closed upper low across the central Rockies. Main jet energy was still south of the closed low with a fairly strong low level jet in the high plains.
Southeast Idaho remains on the western periphery of a closed low that is currently progressing eastward across Wyoming.
In the wake of the exiting storm system a ridge will build in over the region and remain in place through the weekend.
The mid/upper low over the Northern Rockies is becoming an open wave and is now ejecting into the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was over west central South Dakota, with a warm front extending east- southeast across IA/IL/IN to Cincinnati, and a cold front extended south down the High Plains to a low over SE CO. The cold front will make eastward progress across the Northern Plains and Midwest tonight, but a much slower push to the south on the tail end as the boundary becomes more parallel to the flow aloft. There's also a chance that convection developing over the Southern High Plains will move east as a weakening complex tonight into the lower Plains.
With the expectation of a rain-free day today and dry air coming in at the low levels, see no reason why temperatures shouldn't be just as hot as yesterday's readings, which means, perhaps, another 93 deg reading at BNA and another 91 at CKV.
There is a batch of convective cloudiness over the northern Colorado border and areas north associated with the synoptic scale energy of the upper trough/close low to our north and northwest. Broad upper trough axis will move across Colorado today. Poorly defined cold front accompanies the trough. This will bring in air that is a little cooler but quite a bit drier. By this evening skies should be clearing as the trough progresses eastward. an elongated upper level trough of low pressure will stretch from southern California into the northern plains states.
Overnight the low level winds will shift to a more north to northeast direction over the Nature Coast and northern waters, so even though the deep moisture plume will remain in place the majority of the convection should remain over the water. The 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS both maintain a weak low or trough that eventually gets trapped under a ridge of high pressure and moves southwestward back toward the Florida peninsula.
A deep and well stacked anticyclone remains entrenched across the extreme western North Atlantic. Dry/warm layers in the low-mid troposphere will squelch ambitious convection.
a few look possible with upper waves moving east as the upper low pulls northeast into North Dakota. These waves will keep some chance of showers or storms lingering Friday morning east of the James River, with the cold front still near the eastern edge of the area. Skies Friday should clear to mostly sunny, with most clouds associated with the upper low to the north remaining north of our area. There is general agreement amongst the models on a ridge building into the area over the weekend.
Building high pressure ridge will bring sunny skies, dry weather and warming temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to rise to above normal levels Friday, with widespread highs in the low 90s across the Valley, reaching the upper 90s for the northern Sacramento Valley.
303 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Large upper level trough across the Rockies and plains this afternoon. After morning clouds a dry slot has allowed most of the CWA to see some sun and warmer temps in the 70s with OGA the warm spot at 80. The trough across the far eastern zones will continue to drift east. The exception will be the northwest zones where some clearing will allow for temps to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Northwest winds usher in cooler temps however with sunny skies highs should still top out in the 70s.
This is likely due to the strengthening mid- level ridge axis across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas. On Friday, the mid-level ridge axis remains intact while the mid and upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico gradually slides westward. The highest rain chances will be confined to the coastal plains as deeper moisture associated with the upper low drifts into the Texas coast.
Surface trof extends from the eastern Colorado plains up through central South Dakota, with a little better convergence noted east of Goodland extending to the northeast. Atmosphere over the area remains weakly capped, with generous CAPE but shear on the lower end. The cold front bisects northeast KS from southwest to northeast with ample forcing to support widespread showers and thunderstorms. High pressure moves into the region for the weekend with seasonal highs falling back into the lower 80s while overnight lows range in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A trough that has been anchored to the left coast the past few days will begin to rotate inland today. A low pressure trough that has been relatively stationary along the west coast will begin to shift east and de-amplify Wed night and Thu. The trough will shift into the high plains on Fri as high pressure develops off and along the west coast. The highest probabilities of rainfall will be over the Colorado high country south of interstate 70 today.
The inverted surface trof that was partially responsible for the narrow axis of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall just S of I64 has pivoted W of the area. Temps will top out in the upper 80s across the Lowlands with generally 70s in the mountains. A persistent tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will loft lobes of moisture northward into a conditionally unstable air mass giving aftn tstms despite being under high pressure. a series of low pressure systems will ride up and along the front. Temperatures should trend a bit cooler. a typical result in this low level wind field. Allowed the low stratus over KBKW to lift by 15z and sct out with VFR conditions anticipated today for all terminals.
Forecast area to remain under a weakened ridge aloft. The remnant tropical low over the southeastern US should help to keep cloud cover on the high side across the area, which will limit afternoon heating somewhat.
235 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 High pressure across the region will slowly retreat into the Atlantic through tonight.
The CWA is currently situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, with southerly flow bringing in more moisture and warmer air. The low to the west will become more southwest to northeast oriented on Tuesday, with the associated warm front stretching across the state through late Wednesday.
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Early Tuesday morning, the weather pattern across the region featured weak flow aloft with a pair of weak short wave troughs, one over southwest KS and another over western MO. These were weak and somewhat convectively driven from earlier storms, but given the high moisture content of the atmosphere, not much lift is needed to develop a few thunderstorms. The warming trend will also begin in earnest today with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be warmer, in the low to middle 70s. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern US into the central plains on Wednesday, while a deep trough moves over the northwest CONUS.
549 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Latest surface analysis not showing a great deal of change over our area as high pressure holds to our northeast early this morning. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s Wed elevate into the mid 70s Thu with upper 70s possible in spots.
615 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 High pressure across the region will slowly retreat into the Atlantic through tonight.
Upper level low over southern Washington will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the extreme northern parts of the forecast area today, mainly north of Baker and McCall. The low pulls to the north and east tonight, taking the shower threat with it, diminishing the winds, and allowing temperatures to recover slightly on Wednesday. However, a piece of energy drops down the back side of the trough on Wednesday and tries to deepen over northern Nevada.
As the airmass destabilizes after sunrise and a cold front approaches from the west, scattered showers will gradually spread east to a KHVR-KGTF-KBTM line through 19Z, then more showers and thunderstorms will spread east across the forecast area through 00Z. Thunderstorms will decrease from the west after 01Z, but showers and lower VFR ceilings will likely spread over the plains of North Central Montana in the wake of the cold front. On Tuesday, an upper level low will move into western MT by late in the day. On Wednesday, the upper level low pulls slowly north into Canada. It will be a bit breezy/windy on Wednesday, especially over North Central MT in the wake of the departing upper level low.