Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
118 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a weak crossing cold front. A weak cold front will approach the upper Ohio Valley today. The low- confidence this creates has prompted me to keep PoPs in the chance range today and to forecast lower rainfall amounts. In addition, pre-frontal cloud cover will aid in keeping the lower atmosphere relatively stable, hence confidence in thunder remains low.
The majority of the higher resolution models do develop and push a QLCS through the forecast area during the mid to late morning with a strong cold pool advancement. The mid range forecast is fairly benign as Mexico-based upper ridging noses up into the state and keeps rain chances very low.
1241 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 An upper system and cold front will move through AR overnight. Winds ahead of the front will be south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, then switch to west to northwest behind the cold front and be 5 to 15 mph with some gusts. The cold front was slowly pushing into northwest Ar, just pasted KHRO and east of KFSM, while not to KRUE or KBPK at 830 PM CDT. / Issued 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/ An upper system and cold front will move through AR this evening and overnight. Winds ahead of the front will be south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, then switch to west to northwest behind the cold front and be 5 to 15 mph with some gusts.
424 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 IR satellite imagery shows deep convection has developed along a cold front extending across central Texas during the overnight hours. The thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish this evening heading into the overnight hours as the cold front is forecast to stall and undergo frontolysis north of coastal waters.
1015 PM PDT Mon Apr 10 2017 A few weak disturbances will bring cooler temperatures.
353 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure that covers most of Nebraska & KS has produced a mostly clear & chilly night across KICT Country. Temperatures across most of Central KS have settled into the lower & mid 30s where a Frost Advisory is in effect for areas generally NW of a line from Great Bend to Salina until 9 AM CDT. Best chances for rain would occur Thu & Thu Night as a somewhat stronger mid-upr trof takes on a negative tilt as it pushes E/NE across KS & Nebraska. Fri-Sat: There'll be a brief rainfall intermission as the negatively- tilted mid-upr trof shears as it approaches the Mid-MS Valley.
408 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will approach the area this morning and move through this afternoon and this evening.
432 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A weak cold front slowly crosses today into Wednesday morning.
130 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A trough of low pressure will move toward the region tonight and Tuesday.
After that, High pressure fills in its wake, centering over Indiana and the southern Great Lakes by Wed am. At the beginning of the period, upper level high pressure will be situated over the southeastern TX coast up into Louisiana and then sprawled out across the deep south. In the meantime, the upper level ridge will tend to strengthen over our area.
200 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A weak cold front will cross east through the Ohio Valley tonight and early Tuesday. High pressure will build in the Upper Midwest Tuesday night and then settle into the region for Wednesday.
125 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Low pressure over the Central Lakes will track across the Eastern Lakes Tuesday. The trailing cold front will push across the forecast area Tuesday morning. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday. Low pressure over UP of Michigan with a secondary low over SRN WI. Secondary low will track across into the Central Lakes tonight with the trailing cold front moving across the Western half of the forecast area overnight. Temps will slowly drop later in the day as the cooler air moves over the area.
A few high clouds are expected to move over our area, but dry conditions will prevail as we remain on the southwestern flank of high pressure at the surface, and under an upper level ridge. Upper ridge over the eastern U. will temporarily breakdown by Wednesday as a weak trough pushing towards the southeastern states.
410 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Freezing temperatures with a cold start this morning and temperatures today. The low clouds at 08Z were just south of LNK with freezing temperatures across much of the forecast area save for far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa and range from 23 degrees for the cold spot at 08Z of 23 degrees at OLU. Lows will not be as cold in the lower 40s.
657 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will approach the area this morning and move through this afternoon and this evening.
622 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Cooler temperatures can be expected today. High pressure will slide into the region tonight into Wednesday with skies gradually clearing.
Dewpoints should increase more tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Storms will remain possible across the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday as the front pushes through, but these are not expected to become severe. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side tonight in the upper 50s to around 60. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be a bit cooler given the cloud cover and showers. Wednesday into Wednesday night will be dry in the wake of the cold front as high pressure builds in from the north. The front will not bring much cooler air as highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Wednesday.
/Issued 720 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017/ Short term largely quiet with weakening high pressure over the area. Southerly flow ahead of a cold front moving into the state late in the period will draw additional moisture into the area. /issued 1254 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017/ A weak cold front moves into n GA Tuesday night with mainly small chances for showers over n GA as instability is limited.
415 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a weak crossing cold front. A weak cold front will approach the upper Ohio Valley today. Will increase PoPs to likely category just ahead of front, but most of the day will see PoPs in the low chance range. In addition, pre-frontal cloud cover will aid in keeping the lower atmosphere relatively stable, hence confidence in thunder remains low.
Main adjustments to the short term forecast revolve around the disillusion of the upper ridge dry period for the mid to late week time frame. Latest models are less amplified with the ridge as a whole Wed-Fri, and over our area bring in more diffluent southwest flow that will boost precipitation chances particularly over western half of the forecast area. Breezy downslope winds are on tap today behind the overnight disturbance for a warmer mostly sunny and dry day.
438 AM MDT Tue Apr 11 2017 The flow aloft will start out westerly this morning but then gradually become more swly late this aftn thru tonight in advance of a very weak upper level trough. upper level high pressure will be centered over the Rocky Mountain Region with a weak westerly flow aloft over Colorado. with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s on the plains.
211 AM MST Tue Apr 11 2017 Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring warming temperatures through the middle part of this week as well as very dry conditions. Lighter winds and continued above normal temperatures will return for the upcoming weekend as high pressure once again reestablishes itself over the region. A deep Pacific upper level trough just south of the Aleutian Islands is set to move southeastward later today, becoming nearly stationary off the Pacific Northwest coast through the remainder of the week. As this trough deepens on Wednesday, heights aloft over our region will build.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper level ridge is currently over the east coast with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and Central Plains. This upper trough will continue to move east today. By tonight, some ridging begins developing over the Plains. A cold front is across northwest Arkansas at this time and slowly moving southeast. Another cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday night so will keep small rain chances in the west.
Chances for rain will end by midday today as a cold front moves away to the east. High pressure will build in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures for midweek.
329 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will continue to extend into Eastern NC from the Atlantic through tomorrow.
Today will be a pleasant spring day across the entire Northern Rockies albeit somewhat cooler than normal by 5-8 degrees. A large upper low off the pacific NW coast will approach the mainland and impact the Northern Rockies later this evening through Wednesday by ushering in moisture from a southwest flow.
126 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will pass through the region Tuesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon to evening.
Therefore, the cold front should linger across the southern zones for much of the overnight hours. The presence of the ridge will be very temporary due to the development of a strong trough across the western states.
A low pressure system off the northern California coast will send a warm front through our area as the system tracks east then north along the Oregon coast. Warmer air arrives behind the warm front with highs on Wednesday in the 60s to lower 70s in the Treasure/Western Magic Valleys. The next (larger) Pacific trough will approach the west coast on Wednesday. Moisture will increase ahead of the trough as showers will work back into SE Oregon and portions of SW Idaho, excluding most of the Treasure/Western Magic Valleys and along the ID/NV border.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front over southern Missouri, Kentucky and into Eastern Tennessee. Temperatures as of 3 pm CDT are mainly in the lower 90s with some locations in north Mississippi already in the middle 90s.
The latest surface map features a warm front aligned from eastern Kansas to western and southern Kentucky. Aloft, zonal flow is in place across the central CONUS, with embedded short wave troughs moving east across the region. The next area of showers and thunderstorms will move in from southern IL and western KY this evening, out ahead of an embedded short wave trough. This, along with aid from the approaching warm front and an increasing low level jet will sustain the convection as it approaches our west closer to the 03 to 04z time frame. In general, areas near the I-64 corridor will likely see the higher totals.
Westerly mixing winds coupled with moderate waa will result in temperatures from the low 80s to low 90s. Warmer along the thermal ridge into south central ND where we could see 95F or higher. Stayed more conservative with my peak highs south central in the low 90s for now.
The short term forecast is on track with the Atlantic high pressure being in control of the Keys weather through the end of the week. Winds will fluctuate during the daily cycle with surges due to the thermal trough over south Florida.
A short wave trough and surface wave was tracking along this front to enhance and focus the rainfall. To the west a frontal system with short wave trough located over the Western Dakotas and Northern Rockies will gradually work across the Northern Plains. For this region high pressure will dominate much of the state through monday. Seasonable temperatures will continue through Monday along with a gradual increase in humidity in the developing weak southwest flow in the wake of departing high pressure system.
A front and areas of low pressure will keep chances for rain, some of it heavy, across central Indiana through Independence Day.
901 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland. Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure will prevail at the surface this period while strong high pressure aloft persists centered to the southeast. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms are also expected near the coast overnight as the higher instability shifts offshore and convergence increases with the nocturnal surging.
I do expect a similar scenario to today, with convection developing rather quickly around Midday, especially in the higher terrain along the Cumberland Plateau. The high-res ARW reflectivity forecast suggests a band of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in middle and southwest TN as well, perhaps along an advancing outflow or wave ejected from the overnight MCS in the Ozarks.
825 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Waves of low pressure with convection.
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland. Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure will prevail at the surface this period while strong high pressure aloft persists centered to the southeast. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms are also expected near the coast overnight as the higher instability shifts offshore and convergence increases with the nocturnal surging.
/issued 357 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country and is forecast to slowly sag south through the evening hours. High resolution models are indicating isolated shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening along and just behind the aforementioned cold front.
The bad news is that the recent rainfall will make for a humid day, and although temperatures may only be in the low to mid 80s, it will feel pretty muggy if outdoors.
A weak cold front moving through the area tonight will be followed by cooler temperatures (4-8 degrees lower) on Monday.
However, skies will continue to remain clear within the lowest 5000 ft through this time as deeper moisture holds south of the region. Low amplitude trough becoming increasingly entrained within prevailing westerlies as it enters the Ohio Valley will skirt harmlessly to the south through Monday. Increasing southerly flow and a warmer column will be largely offset by associated cloud cover, particularly over the southern CWA. Slightly better moisture over the western portion of the Lower Peninsula is modeled to creep eastward during the day and may result in just enough instability for a few brief rain showers, particularly as a weak PV anomaly indicated by dynamic tropopause plots swings through in the afternoon.
755 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Waves of low pressure with convection.
The potential for more cloud cover into the early afternoon will hold readings in the lower 80s across most of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa for July 4th activities. Meanwhile our long-advertised warming will begin to move into western portions of the area, with highs in the lower 90s for areas from the middle James River Valley westward.
There is also a chance that thunderstorms, now over the High Plains, may affect KSPS-KHBR toward sunrise, but the chance is rather low. Each day of the coming week will see a chance for at least isolated storm activity as models slower and less aggressive with building ridge.
Area of high pressure will be in place across the CWA at the surface with the ridge axis stretching from northeast to southwest overnight.
1000 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Another quiet early July evening across the Northwoods with strong high pressure and dry air remaining overhead. High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to lead to precipitation free and very warm conditions for Independence Day.
Upper level high will be over northern Mexico and Texas this week.
911 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure ridging will maintain mostly dry weather over the area through Monday night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 95 73 89 / 20 20 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 73 86 / 20 30 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 72 86 / 20 30 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 90 69 85 / 50 50 60 60.
Meanwhile the high-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh have been doing a much better job, and keep the significant rainfall well south of the area tonight.
1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. The models keep the frontal boundary just north of the forecast area with a weak pressure trough in the area. Flat upper ridging should continue. Surface ridging should continue to extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north in the forecast area, the models show lee-side troughing continuing.
Thus, although coverage looks spotty, a few storms could be strong to severe during the mid to late afternoon, with currently model consensus suggesting the highest chances in northwestern Minnesota.
With this broad upper ridge settling more firmly over the region.
/issued 353 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ Weak cold front/wind shift has advanced to just south and east of forecast area. Nevertheless, there remains a low chance that convection initiating in the higher terrain of southeast CO and northeast NM could grow upscale and reach the northern and northeastern zones late. After which, A broadening region of high pressure will build over Texas.
It will still be a great day for outdoor activities with partly cloudy skies and with the winds veering and increasing, we'll see an increase in heat and moisture with highs likely topping out in the low to mid 80s across eastern MN and western WI, while western MN runs up into the 90s along the Buffalo Ridge once the winds become turn Southwesterly.
Templer Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure currently exists over the Four Corners and Intermoutnain West. A weak ridge runs north out of this airmass through eastern Montana and Saskatchewan. A alrge trough runs down the coast of Alaska and British Columbia.
fair or average with main issue to how thick and far north the low clouds and possible light fog develop tonight and last into late Monday morning. Much warmer temperatures are in store for much of the week.
Other sites have briefly been already and all do verify the advisory which will continue with guidance showing slightly warmer readings for the holiday. Little change in the overall pattern has materialized and after this upper low moves away and it's associated daily boundary, then the next best chance will be the occasional sea breeze by late day.
A few hours of mostly clear skies could allow low temperatures to fall into the lower 70s most locations after midnight, then remaining steady for the overnight. I do expect a similar scenario to today, with convection developing rather quickly around Midday, especially in the higher terrain along the Cumberland Plateau. The high-res ARW reflectivity forecast suggests a band of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in middle and southwest TN as well, perhaps along an advancing outflow or wave ejected from the overnight MCS in the Ozarks.
516 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Currently across the Tri-State area there is an upper level trough beginning to move east out of the region. As the trough continues to move east through the area clouds will begin to decrease. A ridge will move over the CWA Monday in the wake of the exiting trough. This will bring with it warmer temperatures in the 90s. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the west.
934 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Weak ridging is in place aloft across the region as a TUTT low moves westward over Cuba. This feature brought some cooler temperatures aloft over the area today (KTBW sounding showed around -8C at 500 mb) and likely helped to make the earlier convection a bit more robust than previous days. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains across the central part of the Florida peninsula with a relatively light flow in place. Atlantic high pressure axis remains across the Florida peninsula through the next few days, with relatively light winds giving way to the afternoon sea breeze.
Along with dew points in the low 70s, this has allowed CAPE values to increase to 1000-1250 J/KG. While widespread severe weather is not expected due to relatively warmer temperatures aloft, steep low-level lapse and drier air above 700 mb could help a few strong storms to develop across a majority of the mid-state. Temperatures in the low to middle 90s each afternoon, dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s and with general weakness in the upper level pattern, each afternoon will offer the opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with all of them having the potential to produce strong winds.
An upper low will be over western Canada to start the period with west southwest flow aloft.
Far western sections may clear enough for radiational fog, but areas just east of there will likely have moist/cooler air advecting into warmer/saturated air.
Surface observations showed temperatures most areas over and west of the mountains in the 60s, the High Desert in the 80s and 90s in the Coachella Valley and San Diego County desert. A weak low pressure trough aloft, and onshore flow will maintain dry and seasonal weather this week. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO The global models show weak, but persistent troughing along the West Coast this week. The latest GFS builds a flat ridge back north of 30N latitude, while the ECMWF is maintaining better longwave troughing over the West. This tips the scales more to a cooler and dry forecast with a moderate marine layer west of the mountains.
/Issued 517 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ For this evening, the next crop of showers and tstms which have formed over the higher terrain of sern CO and nern NM will continue movg esewd and affect at least parts of the western and perhaps central zones this evening.
900 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland. Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure will prevail at the surface this period while strong high pressure aloft persists centered to the southeast. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms are also expected near the coast overnight as the higher instability shifts offshore and convergence increases with the nocturnal surging.
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Low pressure will move into the western part of the Ohio Valley late Monday. This storm system will push a warm front north toward the forecast area during the day Monday. A warm front to the south of the forecast area will begin to lift north. A warm front will continue to move northward on Monday as low pressure enters the western Ohio valley.
Westerly flow across the southwest will bring drier and warmer conditions through the week with only a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains. Nice night in store with 50s to low 60s in the mountains with 60s to upper 70s near 80 in the lower valley locations.
905 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region for Monday. Precipitation probabilities will remain focused in that area until advancing low pressure shunts the frontal boundary northward toward the I 70 corridor on Monday. Given low pressure track inconsistencies, rain chances over the I 80 corridor are limited, but can't be eliminated.
1153 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Low pressure will move east along the warm front over the Ohio valley late Monday. The warm front will drift north through mid week. The low level jet is progged to increase over the Ohio Valley tonight but that should focus any new development of thunderstorms mainly over the Ohio Valley. With mostly high clouds, relatively light winds, and low dew points, dropped the low temperature forecast a couple of degrees in most areas. A warm front will continue to move northward on Monday as low pressure enters the western Ohio valley.