Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 610 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ A large upper level low continues to slowly drift eastward from Baja California which has triggered thunderstorms across ERN NM. The low clouds will likely hold into much of the day on Tuesday before thunderstorm chances increase late in the day.
404 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 The slow moving low pressure system that has been stuck over our region, will finally start to pull away. Upper level low has overstayed its welcome, and will finally be sent east to bug our neighbors in New England. A weak wave on periphery of upper low, as well as a passing jet max, could still muster up a couple spotty showers in Central New York today. Some of our typically coldest spots such as Cortland-Norwich- Corning-Elmira-Sidney-Oneonta-Delhi could easily dip to around freezing.
324 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017 With moist south to southeast winds occurring along the Cheyenne Ridge, getting some pretty low vis at the WYDOT sites (widespread 300-500 ft). Low clouds will be slow to clear through the morning, especially along the Cheyenne ridge where upslope southerly llvl flow will persist. Will show the highest pops (60-80 percent) over this time period.
main concerns for short term are rain showers this morning and relative humidity values today and Wednesday Current surface analysis indicate a line of widely scattered rain showers associated with a trough extending from northern St. The low relative humidity values early this morning will rise during the morning hours behind the line of rain showers/trough. It will be clear to partly cloudy tonight as an area of high pressure builds into the region.
315 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Upper level wave exiting Minnesota with a southeast trajectory early this morning, as southeast Michigan continues to be under influence of the massive upper level low over Eastern Canada. Farther removed from the clouds/normally colder Thumb region stands the best chance of seeing frost and temps reaching near freezing.
Turning cooler beginning Wednesday and more unsettled for the end of the week. Some high clouds are spilling across the eastern Pacific ridge into NorCal early this morning. Today is expected to be the warmest this week for interior NorCal as the upper ridge moves overhead. Cool down commences Wednesday as onshore flow picks up across the region as the ridge shifts east of the area.
Our benign weather pattern continues with weak surface ridging shifting a little southward to across the Gulf Coast. The satellite picture this morning shows only some thin cirrus coming out of Texas and around the Western Gulf upper ridge across Louisiana and Mississippi and into Alabama.
325 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure will strengthen over the eastern Great Lakes today into Wednesday. Low pressure from the plains states will move southeast along a warm front in the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight.
558 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Calm winds and clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s in many locations in northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. Thus, after a cool start to the day, temperatures should rebound nicely in the lower to mid 80s by late in the afternoon.
High pressure building into the region will bring dry and warmer temperatures for the next several days.
High pressure centered over the region will keep skies mostly clear today and again on Wednesday with warm and dry conditions persistent. Wednesday will be even warmer across west-central and SW Florida with temps climbing into the middle 90s across the interior.
Mid/upper level ridging continues to build east into our area through the short term with a persistent closed low situated off the New England coast. A weak impulse riding between the ridge and trough will bring an increase in cloud cover and rain to the Appalachians, well north of GA. At the surface, high pressure dominates the sensible weather, eventually moving south into the Gulf Coast region. Temperatures will rebound above normal, highs in the 80s (70s along the higher terrain) for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
An upper level ridge remains over the area this evening and a quiet evening is underway. The generally clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiative cooling though it will be offset by rising 500 mb heights from the ridge. Tonight should be 3-5 degrees warmer than last night.
This will lead to highs rising into the low to mid 80s. This will occur as the upper level trough over the Desert Southwest moves into the southern High Plains.
Latest water vapor shows a closed low over Baja California/Sonora with a ridge downstream extending from the western Gulf Coast to the Middle Missouri Valley. Chances ramp-up beginning early evening through the small hours tonight as the aforementioned closed low moves into the Southwest US/Southern Rockies by late tonight. Thunderstorm development is then expected along and north of a west-east warm front located far southwest NEB to central NEB. Upper level low pressure will finally begin to eject east-northwestward from AZ on Wednesday.
For all areas, cloud cover and a steady wind across open terrain will keep temperatures warmer compared to recent nights.
1232 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a closed low over northern Lake Mi. Models indicate this low which provided enhancement to lake effect snow last night is expected to slide se tonight and reach the Lower Great Lakes by Thu morning. Light lake effect Wed night gradually diminishes through the end of the week, with only some flurries expected by Sat due to a ridge passing through.
As high pressure begins to shift east, surface winds will shift to east Thursday and to southeast Thursday night, with increasing low clouds.
Meanwhile, outside of the cloud cover, radiational cooling is rapidly dropping temperatures around the region into the lower single digits making for a difficult overnight low forecast because under the cloud cover temperatures are in the mid teens.
246 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 High pressure stretching across eastern SD through eastern KS early this morning will continue to slowly exit to the southeast, with a ridge remaining over our far eastern counties through early afternoon. Light snow is expected to slide into our northwestern counties late this evening, and quickly expand toward southeastern SD by 09Z as the 500mb ridge to our west becomes surpressed and a an embedded trough swings across the Dakotas.
An eastern CONUS trough aloft, and ridging at the surface will prevail through today. Breezy conditions will aid in diurnal mixing, though a stronger cold pool aloft than yesterday will result in slightly cooler afternoon highs than on Wednesday.
358 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Light winds today as high pressure ridge moves over the area, then winds turn southerly tonight. a tad warmer pine tree areas in the far east.
Surface winds have dropped off considerably east of the MS River allowing temps to quickly drop to the freezing mark from Oxford MS north to Paris TN. /issued 346 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018/ A broad trough continues to affect the eastern CONUS this afternoon, supporting the nor'easter bringing strong winds and winter weather to the northeast. These freezing temperatures will be covered by a Special Weather Statement instead.
/issued 704 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018/ Cooler, drier air filtering into the area will allow for a cool night across west-central and SW Florida. Low to mid 50s across SW Florida and along the coast as those area will be moderated some by the warmer Gulf waters.
347 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Early morning surface analysis shows ridging extending from the Dakotas into Southeast Texas. Dry conditions will continue again today as this ridging slides east with light northerly winds this morning veering to the southeast this afternoon. Despite onshore flow resuming later today, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 60s due to high cloud cover as GOES-E nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a steady stream of cirrus rotating around an upper ridge over Baja California and across the southwestern US into Texas.
An upper level ridge sitting west over the rockies will aid pushing in WAA to the area. A small trough will push through the area causing our surface winds to shift 360 degrees clockwise by Thursday afternoon.
139 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 135 AM CST Another day of seasonally cold weather will be on tap today, courtesy of deep low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes region. Energy will continue to rotate southwestward across the area as the low slowly pulls off to the east. Flurries are a possibility too, though later today we lose some of the ice production in the clouds as the lower level column warms slightly so we don't anticipate much.
Water vapor imagery shows a large area of mid/high Pacific moisture rounding the top of the H5 ridge over the southwestern states.
Kelly A s/w continues to rotate around the large upper low centered over the Great Lakes region. Still, with temps not warming as much today, have trended twd cooler guidance. While the CWA will remain under CAA thru Thurs, the insolation shud allow for temps to climb into the lower, perhaps middle, 40s.
With high pressure building into the region on Thursday, conditions will be dry, cool and breezy. As the high shifts eastward overnight, winds slack and clear skies allow for good radiational cooling.
A low pressure system off the Oregon coast will continue moving northeast overnight. Another low pressure system will arrive from the northwest Thursday night for falling snow levels.
The low cloud field and the trailing lift from the upper level disturbance to be able to produce flurries will slowly sink southward this morning and probably won't exit into far southern IL until just before the clouds clear out, or by mid morning.
Winds will shift back to a southerly direction today as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight are progged to dip into the low to mid 30s.
225 AM MST Thu Mar 8 2018 An upper low continues to spin over the Great Lakes, while another upper low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. In between, a ridge is spreading across the western and central states. At the surface, high pressure rests over central/eastern ND/SD/NE. Upper ridging will keep conditions mild and dry for the next couple of days.
Today, it looks like we'll still be dealing with a pesky corridor of low level moisture on the eastern side of the 925mb ridge axis.
The increased WNW flow in the upper levels and stability will also increase winds over the higher terrain with gusts to 45 mph possible through the afternoon.
Drier, cooler Thursday expected. Drier, cooler air has certainly settled in behind the front and it will provide a dry and sunny day for much of Florida.
A weak impulse in the upper longwave trough will keep mainly cloudy skies across the area overnight with a few flurries possible. The highest elevations of the Plateau could have a slight dusting of snow showers.
Updated aviation discussions Periodic thick high clouds will spread across the region this week despite high pressure locked in place. These clouds are emanating from lower latitudes of the east Pacific and are being advected inland from a positively tilted upper trough centered off of the Oregon/NorCal coast. However, the lower troposphere is still quite dry. Despite the increasing cloud cover, it hasn't been thick enough to put much of a dent in the temperatures - due at least in part to continued subsidence warming from the ridge. Anticipate thinner cirrus on Thursday which will make for slightly warmer high temperatures (more noticeably over SE CA). That means readings in the low 80s across the lower elevations.
Cooler temperatures continue across the area today with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
245 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 Per obs trends this morning the current Freeze Warning looks on track for western parts of the CWA given some weaker winds and reduced stratocu coverage allowing for more radiational cooling - probably see some spotty other locations reaching the freezing mark by sunrise as well.
After the area of snow diminishes tonight, dry conditions are expected for late tonight into Thursday as the area of high pressure situated to the west of the state will build eastward into Iowa. Ridge axis to be in place across Iowa Thursday with cooler flow and cooler air remaining in place. Therefore still expect to see cooler temps with highs remaining in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
A ridge of high pressure over the Plains will shift east into Missouri on Thursday.
Ground temperatures remain above freezing and should allow for trace snow accumulations to be limited to cars and elevated surfaces.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Plains with a storm system. Dew points in the 20s ran from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. medium to high confidence Quiet and dry conditions should be seen across the area as high pressure begins building into the Midwest.
An upper level low will continue to bring some scattered snow showers and flurries to the area today, along with well below normal temperatures.
Upper ridging to our west will slowly break down by the end of this week, but not before temperatures warm well above normal. Surface flow has returned to the southeast, but cool air has spilled well into S TX so it will take a while for warmer air to make its way back.
Dry and generally mild conditions are expected today, with continued high pressure at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft. Winds will become southerly this afternoon, as warmer air advects into the region.
Meanwhile surface dewpoints were lowering into the lower teens across much of the area. Did not wander to far from the lower range of the guidance. Pressure gradient picks up for Thursday as high pressure nudges in from the west. Cyclonic flow and lingering steep lapse rates support another period of clouds late morning into the afternoon before high pressure builds in. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Building upper ridge across the western states and series of reinforcing upper low systems over the east coast support a northwest flow aloft regime over the mid section of the country.
The surface flow begins to veer more towards the east-southeast by late Thursday morning drawing in some Gulf moisture however the current dry airmass has pushed pretty far into the Gulf so not expecting a rapid return to the higher dewpoints, even as nearshore water temperatures remain in the upper-60s.
953 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western ND, with frontal boundary just southwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the Great Lakes, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains, and a ridge along the west coast. A warming trend will take place late this week as western US ridge slowly moves east.
244 AM MST Thu Mar 8 2018 High pressure will continue to build in today and allow winds to become a bit more west to southwesterly. This flow will usher in warmer air allowing temperatures to reach more normal values for this time of year.
The cold airmass with clear skies and winds becoming light should allow lows to drop into the low to mid teens with single digits possible over the deeper snow cover in far northern portions of northeast NE. The high pressure shifts east of the area on Thursday with an east to southeast component of the wind increasing locally.
A large closed upper low was centered over the western Great Lakes region with a ridge over the Rockies.
High pressure at the surface overnight will build south and bring some cold Thursday morning readings. Thursday will be a quiet day as high pressure very slowly shifts east.
945 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 The axis of high pressure shifts eastward a few degrees over the next couple of days allowing daytime temperatures to increase. A very weak disturbance in the ridge is bringing high cloud cover into the region this evening, which will persist overnight. This cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer tonight as compared to this (Wednesday) morning.
1107 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 The primary forecast challenge through Thursday is temperature as the pesky upper low slowly moves over the Great Lakes and a ridge builds over the Rockies. Cumulus fields developed this afternoon over the Sandhills with weak fgen and remaining cooler conditions in the mid levels. Lowered min temps (moreso in the Platte River Valley), especially with guidance trending cooler. With the upper ridge expanding onto the High Plains and an H85 thermal ridge approaching the area, the warming trend is on track.
The broad area of high pressure aloft across the western states will keep temperatures at or above normal heading into the weekend.
305 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 High pressure continues to settle into the region with cool temperatures across the area this morning.
This complex could produce another coating of snow for the same areas which saw some snow a bit earlier as it enhances as it moves across the higher terrain. We should see one more burst of more intense snow showers with the passage of this trough between 8 am and noon.
Upper high pressure will keep conditions dry and winds relatively light through Thursday.
A disturbance moving southeast around the upper trough is impacting portions of Iowa, with clear skies overhead in south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
This has led to cooler temperatures with many locations still residing in the low to mid 30s. Light snow shwr activity to move east this evening as high pressure builds in from the west. This will result in weaker winds and less cloud cover for Thursday along with warmer temperatures.
/Today through Tonight/ Upper low pressure which moved across the western Great Lakes region on Wednesday will be moving east towards Pennsylvania today. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will move into Iowa today. Thermal profiles will remain near to slightly warmer than Wednesday and temperatures will remain seasonably cold with highs in the mid to upper 20s north to the mid to upper 30s south. The combination of a short wave passing across Minnesota and Wisconsin and warm advection developing in the wake of the departing ridge may result in light snow developing across South Dakota and approaching northwest Iowa by late tonight.
1052 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure over the region will bring overall dry conditions through tonight with just some patchy fog across portions of north-central Montana tonight.
Temps to cool to within a couple or so degrees of dewpoints, and overnight lows ranging from the lower 30s over sw AR to the upper 30s in ne TX appear on track.
By later in the afternoon, winds beer around to the south, and should bring high temperatures up out west just a few degrees more than Wednesday with highs in the low 50s west to lower 40s in the far northeast.
113 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Last of the snow showers and flurries is exiting southeast Illinois early this morning, as a fast moving upper trough swings into the Ohio Valley. With time, the upper low over lower Michigan will make some eastward progress later today, starting a pattern shift over the central U. In the interim, rather cool air will remain in place courtesy of the low, with another day of highs in the mid to upper 30s on tap. Cloud trends will continue to decrease through this evening, as an axis of high pressure drifts into the region, although cirrus will begin moving in from the west late in the night.
339 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Ridging over the western CONUS and troughing in the east with a closed low over the Great Lakes has the Panhandles in northwest flow today. Low level lee side troughing will allow us to see 70s over the next few days.
1246 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 Cold air will continue to be funnelled into the region through Thursday as a low pressure system tracks southeast through the Great Lakes.
342 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 Low pressure continues to spin over the Great Lakes, and the primary upper trough is over the lower Ohio Valley early this morning. One notable mid-level vortmax was diving southeast through western TN, around the base of the trough. In the low levels, moisture depth remains fairly limited. With temperatures slowly trending a bit cooler over the next few hours, some slick roads will be possible during the morning commute.
345 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge moving east into the wrn CONUS this morning, courtesy of a closed low nudging into the PacNW.
208 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a closed low over northern Lake Mi. Models indicate this low which provided enhancement to lake effect snow last night is expected to slide se tonight and reach the Lower Great Lakes by Thu morning. The upper Great Lakes stay in upper level troughing this forecast period. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun that moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon. A ridge builds into the western U. This ridge moves into the Rockies 12z Tue and this slowly moves into the northern and central plains on Thu.
The persistent upper low that's been spinning over the area will finally get a kick to the east tonight. A decent short wave axis spinning around the low is helping to generate the clouds and a flurries across southern Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1026 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains. This is resulting in clear skies across the Mid South with temperatures as of 3 AM CST in the lower to middle 30s at most locations.
The forecast area is continuing to experience northwest flow aloft as an expansive upper low remains over the Great Lakes region. A surface cold front moved southeast through the forecast area earlier today in dry fashion. Winds remain breezy at times this afternoon as the lower levels remain well mixed in the wake of the cold front passage.
921 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Made a minor adjustment to the temperatures to be slightly cooler than previous forecast but still warmer than the previous night. Ridging will continue to build over about the next 24 hours before the flow starts to flatten.
An extremely dry airmass remains in place on a northerly flow through the low and mid levels, trending westerly aloft. An extremely dry airmass remains in place on a northerly flow through the low and mid levels, trending westerly aloft. Aloft, the area is under a northwest flow on the backside of an east coast trough.
/Issued 245 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018/ Per obs trends this morning the current Freeze Warning looks on track for western parts of the CWA given some weaker winds and reduced stratocu coverage allowing for more radiational cooling - probably see some spotty other locations reaching the freezing mark by sunrise as well.
Thus, another relatively cool day is forecast across western and central North Dakota with highs in the 20s to the lower 30s.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period over the next 24 hours. /DC/ Another clear cold night is in store for ARKLAMS region as high pressure builds to our west.
High temps today in the lower 30s with lows tnt in the teens.
In addition, the high risk of rip currents will persist today and possibly into tomorrow as well.
Otherwise, weak upper ridging extending over the area from an upper high in AZ is still progged to lose 10-20 meters of strength at 500 mb today. This scenario should improve chances that a more comprehensive cluster of storms affects our CWA tonight, primarily across our NW zones where the theta-E ridge is progged to focus. Thursday is likely to play out very similar to today, both with the threat of pre-sunrise storms and additional height falls aloft within the ridge axis. The biggest difference involves a thermal ridge from 850-700 mb drawing closer which should boost max temps a few degrees over today, but not enough to warrant a heat advisory.