Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1044 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Atlantic ridge axis remains just north of the area, with low level winds out of the southeast. Hot and humid conditions expected, with highs in the low 90s at the coast and low to mid 90s inland. (Previous Discussion) Generally favorable boating conditions prevailing, as the Atlantic ridge axis continues southward towards the local area.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD HAS BROUGHT LIGHT/CALM WINDS, ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION AND CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN THE GROUND FOG. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE LAKE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S INLAND, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.
Temps should rebound on Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will drop south in association with an upper level trough that will deepen across the Northeast through late week. Average to slightly below average temps are expected late in the work week as northwest flow amplifies across the Upper Midwest in response to the deepening eastern US trough. Overall, the GEFS/EPS indicate some warming into the weekend as the flow pattern relaxes and ridging tries to build east from the plains. Although a relatively dry airmass will advect across the area beyond the mid-week cold front, especially across Wisconsin, some increase in low-level moisture/instability into the weekend could support storms with any of the trough passages, but organized severe weather chances appear low per SPC and CSU machine learning severe weather probabilities.
Otherwise, expect variable cloud cover and drier, cooler conditions this week. A cold front located south of the area has become nearly stationary. Wednesday this then expected to be mild and dry with mostly clear skies allowing temperatures to warm into the low 80s despite being on the cool side of the front. Broad upper troughing will be over the northeastern quarter of the continent going into the middle of the week.
Southerly flow will increase across the region today between an exiting high to the east and a low pressure trough extending off the Rockies. Combined with rising heights aloft in a building ridge, temperatures at the sfc will climb back above normal today. On Wednesday, highs will be a bit lower as winds shift more to the east with Canadian high pressure pushing in from the north as a front stretches from the Rockies across southern SD. Highs will range from the lower 80s in northeast SD and west central MN to the mid 90s in south central SD.
211 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 A weak cold front has dropped into all but the western zones early this afternoon.
202 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. This Afternoon: High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will extend across the Southeast United States, favoring light south- southwest winds that eventually turn south-southeast in wake of a sea breeze shifting inland. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. Wednesday: High pressure will prevail with the region situated under the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure, both aloft and at the surface. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.
Given the NW flow aloft, plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, and unstable airmass with the low, rain chances should remain pretty constant this short-term. Temperatures over the course of this short-term should also be slightly cooler thanks to the aforementioned rainfall. Lows tonight and tomorrow will range in the low to mid-70s.
Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon through this evening as a surface cold front dives into the forecast area.
With this in mind the max temps forecast today remains a few degrees cooler than the NBM is suggesting.
A few of the latest CAMs do indicate some showers over northeast Nebraska toward sunrise Wednesday morning as a weak warm front extends across the area. Soundings are much too dry in the low-levels to signal any measurable precipitation but some increase in mid-clouds across northeast Nebraska is certainly possible.
1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cooler, much less humid, and generally dry conditions expected the next couple days.
Another hot day is in store for North Central and Southwestern Montana today as upper level ridging continues to remain over the area. 1139 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 (09/18Z TAF period) High pressure aloft will maintain widespread VFR conditions and light winds for most locations; however, easterly breezes may gust to and in excess of 20 kts at times over the plains, especially for KLWT and KHVR on Wednesday. Ludwig /ISSUED 341 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022/ Another hot day is in store across North Central and Southwestern Montana as upper level ridging remains overhead. With that said, temperatures will be slightly cooler across the plains, thanks to a weak cold front that pushed through overnight. Regardless, temperatures will still be in the 90s this afternoon, but this forecaster appreciates the slightly cooler temperatures.
The slightly cooler trend will remain present tomorrow afternoon with easterly to northeasterly surface flow over OK.
Under high pressure, today will be the warmest day of the week. Most other areas will reach the 80s, with 70s forecast across the higher terrain. As the broad ridge over our region begins to shift eastward into the central U. and the closed low along the west coast tracks northward, monsoonal moisture will continue to shift further north and east tomorrow.
The cold front is still expected to sweep through dry tomorrow, with a few small chances for precipitation on the back end associated with several disturbances.
1145 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Yesterday high pressure was centered over the Four Corners region. As a low pressure begins to ever so slightly get closer to the Pacific Northwest coast the high will shift to the northeast. Proximity to the high pressure will result in above normal temperatures for most locations. Tomorrow the high remains over the CO/WY state line as the low pressure makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest.
245 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor imagery shows broad upper ridge across the western CONUS, and an upper low drifting offshore the NW Pac coast.
Only potential for showers this week is with a secondary cold front on Wednesday night as the longwave pattern amplifies and a trough digs into the Great Lakes.
A few weak disturbances traveling along the eastern edge of the upper high could help a few isolated to scattered storms develop late this afternoon/evening; however confidence in timing and location is not high enough to include in the latest forecast. Should any storms develop, they are expected to be non-severe, but may be capable of a rogue 60 mph wind gust due to the high DCAPE values.
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes has yielded another Chamber of Commerce Day across the U. A moisture starved cold front over far northwest Ontario will continue to drop southward this evening and through the area early Wednesday. Cold front will pass through the area early Wednesday.
Today will likely being the hottest day, with highs topping out in the low 100s in the lowest valleys of extreme NW MT (areas west of HWY-93 and north of HWY-200), and in the Missoula Valley.
234 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Mid afternoon temperatures range from the mid 70s in parts of southwest MN to the lower 90s in south central SD. Blocking upper ridging over the Rockies meanders slightly further east on Wednesday. Coupled with mixing into slightly warmer temperatures aloft, this brings a little warmer weather Wednesday.
1011 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Another hot day is in store for North Central and Southwestern Montana today as upper level ridging continues to remain over the area. Expect winds to generally be light and variable as high pressure exerts its control. Ludwig /ISSUED 512 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022/ Another hot day is in store across North Central and Southwestern Montana as upper level ridging remains overhead. With that said, temperatures will be slightly cooler across the plains, thanks to a weak cold front that pushed through overnight. Regardless, temperatures will still be in the 90s this afternoon, but this forecaster appreciates the slightly cooler temperatures.
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 (Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure will dominate tonight with mainly clear skies. We will see a warm surge on Wednesday with a thermal ridge setting up with a westerly wind between the high to our south and a low pressure system to our north. Highs should reach the low/mid 80s with an upward nudge in the dew points as well. A cold front is then proggd to drop through the area from the north Wednesday evening.
154 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 The Bermuda high pressure over the area slowly weakens as a cold front approaches from the northwest on Wednesday.
256 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Upper level ridging continues over our region today through Wednesday afternoon. Clear skies and hot, but cooler than yesterday for the High Plains region, temperatures today with temperatures returning back into the upper 90s for the rest of the week.
Some mid to high clouds are noted across the eastern portion of the CWA as a deep closed low continues to spin off the coast of northern California and high pressure remains centered around the Four Corners region. Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than yesterday with some gusts from 20-30 mph noted across the Delta, northern Sacramento Valley, and high mountain terrain this afternoon. Late tonight into tomorrow the low off the coast will progress northeast off the PacNW coast and then remain quasi-stationary through late week. Another day with below average highs is expected for tomorrow with breezy onshore flow, especially over the higher mountain terrain.
229 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 An upper level high pressure dome is centered along the Colorado/Utah state line and little movement is anticipated over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will, of course, be cooler with highs only in the 80s to lower 90s on Wednesday.
A broad upper level ridge was located across the central Rockies early this afternoon. Temperatures across the CWA early this afternoon ranged from the lower 80s along eh NE border to the upper 80s across the far southern counties.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, first across the higher terrain, and eventually across the valley. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 85 71 84 69 / 40 80 60 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 70 83 68 / 40 80 60 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 84 70 82 66 / 40 90 70 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 67 80 64 / 30 90 70 60 20.
Current temperatures are in the lower 80s, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Weather conditions will improve significantly Wednesday as our sensible weather will be once again dominated by the high pressure system that is centered in the North Atlantic Ocean and the SAL.
134 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Aviation --Mild weather through the week-- An upper level low moving through eastern Canada has an elongated trough that will extend across the Great Lakes region. In the wake of a cold front moving south, drier and cooler air will advect into the region.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Upper air analysis this morning shows the subtropical ridge has shifted slightly to the northwest. The upper ridge will continue to retreat toward the northwest Wednesday. This will allow weak impulses to move around the south side of the ridge into Texas.
Any fog will burn off quickly tomorrow, leaving a mostly sunny sky and highs in the lower to middle 80s by afternoon. With the sunny skies tomorrow, afternoon highs should reach into the lower to middle 80s.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the week as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region. /issued 225 AM MST Tue Aug 9 2022/ Models keep the upper high centered near the Four Corners region through the middle of the week.
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 A cold front will then linger across the area through Wednesday. Drier and less humid conditions arrive late this week into this weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. Another trough supports renewed shower and thunderstorm growth into the early afternoon with locally heavy rainfall the continued threat. Temperatures still warm into the mid to upper 70s, but there will be some potential for locally cooler conditions based on where cloud cover persists the longest.
315 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Stationary front extends from Southern Missouri across far southeast KS and into western OK with high pressure situated from the western Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. In the upper levels, ridge is centered over the Four Corners region with water vapor imagery showing a weak impulse over the Ozarks. This is also where the higher PW airmass will be situated. Upper ridging will start to expand east slightly for Wed into Thu which will keep precip chances out of the forecast. By Fri afternoon the upper ridge will be centered over eastern CO/western KS/sw Nebraska. Will introduce some pops for the Mon night through Tue time frame as the upper high sinks slowly south and weakens, which will allow some moonsonal energy to potentially impact central KS.
Light northerly winds shift easterly overnight before veering to the west daytime tomorrow under expanding high pressure. Shallow cold air advection will limit mixing depths to roughly 4k feet, which along with the cooler airmass will hold max temps mainly in the 70s, with a touch cooler readings along Lake Huron. A northern stream short wave forecast to pivot around a Hudson Bay/nrn Quebec upper low as it rotates across nrn Ontario Wednesday will drive a cold front into the northern Great Lakes. Subtle prefrontal warming across srn MI will boost Wed highs into the lower 80s under ample sunshine.
252 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Key Messages: 1) Thunderstorm activity tailing down for Wednesday Drier air wrapping around eastern side of the upper high and a subsidence inversion has suppressed convection over most of southern CO compared to the last several days. For Wednesday, thunderstorm activity looks even less widespread as northeast winds around the upper high wrap dry air aloft westward. Surface dew points drop back across the plains with some afternoon mixing and although can't entirely rule out a thunderstorm on the Raton Mesa region, it should be a dry and warmer day.
247 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor imagery shows very dry air in the mid to upper levels over Colorado with the center of a ridge aloft over western Colorado. The ridge of high pressure aloft will move directly overhead on Wednesday with 500 mb heights reaching 598 dm. An upper level high will remain over the area from Thu thru Fri. Some monsoon will begin to move into the higher terrain by Thu and continue on Fri. By the weekend, the upper level high will slowly weaken and move eastward into the central plains. On Sat, the best chc for storms will remain over the higher terrain. Temps will remain above normal on Sat across the plains with slightly cooler readings for Sun and Mon.
High pressure sags off to the south tonight while an upstream cold front (tied to low pressure near Hudson Bay) approaches from the northwest - expected to be positioned over the central U. Low temperatures tonight largely in the 50s area-wide, although some 40s likely as well in the typically cooler/interior spots (as was the case last night). High pressure begins to move off to the east as a moisture starved cold front associated with an area of low pressure over Hudson Bay approaches from the north. At this time the low-level dry air should keep any rain elevated (virga). High pressure will then diminish cloud cover once again Wednesday night and continue to dominate northern Michigan's weather through the end of this forecast period and possibly beyond.
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1150 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows drying in the mid and upper levels with the center of a high pressure system over Colorado.
Bermuda ridge shows little change east of the area for Wednesday and we stay in this similar high moisture airmass along with another decently diurnally unstable day near 2500 J/kg SBCAPE progged.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast. Highs Wednesday will be a couple of degrees cooler due to the higher rain chances and more cloud coverage, and should range from 86 to 91 degrees.
A healthy expansion of strato-cu from residual moisture and diurnal heating remains over most of SE MI with a cooler air mass holding daytime highs in the mid 70s. An upper-level wave will push into the Hudson Bay early Wednesday morning, and will drive a cold front across northern Michigan. A wedge of warmer pre-frontal air will fill in across SE MI by Wednesday afternoon, pushing highs into the low to mid 80s. Southward progression of the cold front will push it across SE MI between 00Z - 12Z Thurs, but minimal impacts are expected along the front with the antecedent dry conditions.
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 All night, an area of showers and thunderstorms has been sitting across the southern border of the coverage area along a cold front extending more or less from St. Upper level northwest flow pushes a high pressure into the central Plains which keeps skies relatively quiet for the next several days. This high also begins shoveling warm air back northward across the foothills of the Rockies. Fortunately, an upper level wave across the Great Lakes keeps the center of this high out to the west delaying the warm up for a couple days. Temperatures begin to climb into the low 90s into the weekend.
122 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today and Wednesday, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with the passage of a slow moving cold front.
1103 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor imagery depicts dry air over the northern Rockies and northern plains, beneath a building ridge. Hot and mostly dry weather will continue for the next few days, as the upper ridge builds.
Clouds and storms will result in slightly cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 where there is more sun. /issued 343 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022/ A cold front currently stretches from Western Oklahoma northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Variably cloudy skies and patchy fog and drizzle will remain possible into tonight as cool high pressure continues to build southward into the area behind a departing cold front.
311 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 At the surface, the cold front that has been slowly moving through the CWA is at our southern border. In the upper levels, ridging is apparent in the western CONUS, with more zonal flow present in the east. Through tonight and Wednesday, the ridging will amplify, lifting heights into the northern Midwest.
332 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cold front is entering Corson county this afternoon and will continue to move south through the evening. Wednesday will see a bit of a push of "cooler" air over eastern portions of the CWA, but western areas are expected to remain rather hot with highs in the 90s. Easterly breezes will continue and expecting the coolest readings in the Glacial Lakes region where highs will top out in the lower 80s.
The cold front helping to set off this activity is currently sinking into our far northern counties, and models show the front bisecting the PAH forecast area basically along the Ohio River into southeast Missouri by 12z Wednesday. The highest chances will be along and southeast of the front, which will put the best chances across west Kentucky by late tonight and through the day Wednesday.
/issued 413 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging over the Four Corners will nose into the region today as an upper level low over eastern Mexico continues to move farther westward. Ample moisture in place combined with a subtle inverted mid-level trough and daytime heating will support another round of seabreeze convection today.
An upper level short wave trough was approaching from the north. On Wednesday, the better chances shift to the western and southern part of the CWA closest to the upper level short wave trough.
Upper high currently over the Four Corners Region will begin to shift east closer to the area with warm/humid conditions likely through the weekend.
High pressure stretched from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin this afternoon with a cold front working into northwestern Minnesota and the Dakotas. There may be some clouds with the front, but slightly cooler temperatures and drier air will be the main impact with the front.
657 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today and Wednesday, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with the passage of a slow moving cold front.
/issued 229 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022/ An upper level high pressure dome is centered along the Colorado/Utah state line and little movement is anticipated over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will, of course, be cooler with highs only in the 80s to lower 90s on Wednesday.
1039 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cooler air will pour across the Eastern Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow with a few lake effect rain showers southeast of Lake Ontario. High pressure will build towards our region tomorrow and tomorrow night with lake effect rain and clouds dissipating.
High pressure grows over the weekend providing a subtle warming and drying trend, mainly for interior areas. Temperatures are mainly in the low 70s, with Tuesday afternoon high temperatures reaching the low 80s for the far interior locations. The upper level low that continues to spin off the Northern California Coast keeps the winds are onshore and breezy. The low off the coast will advect northward at a snail's pace. Meanwhile the upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners sits with warmer and drier weather. Ensemble guidance, with agreement from cluster analysis, shows a high probability of the the upper level ridge inching westward over the weekend. Low cigs return Wednesday night, as low pressure moves up the West Coast. KSFO Bridge Approach.
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 At the surface, the cold front that has been slowly moving through the CWA is at our southern border. In the upper levels, ridging is apparent in the western CONUS, with more zonal flow present in the east. Through tonight and Wednesday, the ridging will amplify, lifting heights into the northern Midwest.
707 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cold front at 00z from near Ely MN to Walker MN to just north of Wahpeton ND to Oakes ND. High pressure building in will give a clear sky overnight with a light north wind.
Water vapor imagery shows very dry air in the mid to upper levels over Colorado with the center of a ridge aloft over western Colorado. The ridge of high pressure aloft will move directly overhead on Wednesday with 500 mb heights reaching 598 dm. An upper level high will remain over the area from Thu thru Fri. Some monsoon will begin to move into the higher terrain by Thu and continue on Fri. By the weekend, the upper level high will slowly weaken and move eastward into the central plains. On Sat, the best chc for storms will remain over the higher terrain. Temps will remain above normal on Sat across the plains with slightly cooler readings for Sun and Mon.
1034 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Variably cloudy skies and patchy fog and drizzle will remain possible into tonight as cool high pressure continues to build southward into the area behind a departing cold front.