Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND INTO WYOMING ON TUESDAY. THE FURTHER NORTH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GOES THE FURTHER NORTH THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL. THUS TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE RANGE NOW (AROUND AN INCH).
358 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. NEXT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING AND SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 32F.
S/SE WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 MPH HAVE KEPT MOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. AS SCHEDULED A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF IS DIGGING DUE S ACROSS CA & NV WHERE IT'LL LIKELY UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS ON WED. UPPER TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES AZ & NM WED NIGHT & THU. A STRENGTHENING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING NE TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL KICK THE STRONG UPPER TROF E/NE ACROSS OK & KS THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKEWISE KICK A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS THU AFTERNOON & NIGHT. THE POTENT ACCELERATING UPPER TROF DICTATED LOWERING POPS ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY EARLY THU EVENING. WITH LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT & SAT NIGHT A NICE WEEKEND AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE A PASSING SPRINKLE IN LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LINGERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH CALM WEATHER.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM.
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES TO THE ROCKIES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN FA. THE EAST WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS.
WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FOUND. THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
241 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
MIXING ALONG AND JUST IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS.
HOWEVER, BLV CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OVERNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY PUT MANY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS "IN THE SOUP" BY SUNRISE.
AND GRADUALLY TRANSFORMING INTO AN H5 RIDGE WHICH WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW THE CURRENT RESIDUAL SFC FRONT TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NE BUT ALSO PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SLY FLOW CWFA-WIDE WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR IN PLACE THRU TUE.
An impressive trough continued to dig across California, which will move slowly inland through the short term period (Tonight and Tomorrow). The latest thinking is that the storm system will eject out of the Rockies in a weaker state, thanks to another digging jet streak down the backside of the larger scale trough.
444 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
SOME OF THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE LOW STRATUS ADVECT IN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE FG POTENTIAL. WHERE THE STRATUS WILL PERSIST AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies.
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA MIDWEEK. A SECOND FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING UNDER THE BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER AN UPPER LVL TROF WILL DIG INTO THE SW STATES TODAY AND THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
251 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
1215 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY NOVEMBER. THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE FAR NORTH IF SKIES ARE CLOUDY.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. AND THE TRUE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH NE OK.
1226 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
longwave ridging prevailing over the much of the Plains/Midwest as a deep upper trough continues to slowly eject east from the southern Rockies. strengthening sfc ridging extends south across the Lwr Missouri Vly from parent high pressure now located over western Ontario Province. This feature will buffer our region as the aforementioned southern Rockies low tracks east through the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley through midweek.
1146 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NM IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. THIS RAIN AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. BEFORE VANGUARD CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW IS NOTED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS AIDED THE FORMATION OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
BUT DIFFERS ON THE SWD PROGRESS OF PRECIP ON THE WWD SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HI-RES MODELS FAVOR A NEW AREA OF T-STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS OUR W-NW COUNTIES AS THIS LOW TRANSLATES EAST AND SUBJECTS THESE AREAS TO A HEALTHY DEFORMATION ZONE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR SOMETIME MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING IS VERY LOW.
1251 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) An expansive area of high pressure will continue to build southward through the Mississippi Valley leading to light winds and a cool night across the region. upper low. Outside of the highly urbanized areas, temperatures early Monday morning will bottom out in the upper 30s. If temps drop 2-3 degrees cooler than currently forecast in some of the remote areas, there could be some short-lived patchy frost. vortex/upper trof will migrate eastward but will keep high pressure locked in at the surface.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST.
613 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE QUIET WEATHER FROM TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS NEAR IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
955 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2015 High pressure brings dry conditions through at least mid week. Increasing subsidence Mon and Tue will result in unseasonably warm max temps over interior Norcal next couple of days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. A few high clouds will spill over the ridge. The ridge will peak over the region on Monday and temperatures will warm well into the 80s with some of the warmer spots topping off around 90 degrees.
WENT A BIT LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
/ISSUED 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon An upper low has closed over New Mexico early this afternoon and will move east over the Panhandle through tonight. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s over the northern half of the area and upper 70s to low 80s over the southern half of the area as a frontal boundary sags south through the area.
625 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY.
910 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NM IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. THIS RAIN AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. BEFORE VANGUARD CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER.
UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE CLOSING OFF THEN SLOWING DOWN. THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. IF THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS IN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM DODGE CITY NORTHWARD IF THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE.
HAVE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS SHIFT IDEA OF FAVORING THE LOWER END OF TEMP GUIDANCE. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR SOMETIME MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING IS VERY LOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY GIVEN AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRENDING NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NEW SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE EFFECTS OF OUR UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR WEST TAKING A BIT MORE OF A PAUSE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING WAS A SULTRY AND EXTREMELY MUGGY 81 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE MAX/MIN RECORD. THE ROBUST AND SHARP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA.
740 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 AVIATION A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
708 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 A TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
HAVE MADE MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A RISK FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION, BUT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z MONDAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
SECOND S/W ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LINGERING POPS MONDAY NIGHT CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREA.
BEST BET FOR AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE AT TRI WITH SOME SATURATION OF THE LOWER LAYER AROUND TWO TO THREE THOUSAND FEET.
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
929 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE 00Z NAM HAS JUST COME IN AND IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW THAT IS SHIFTING ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF FOG IN THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING DRIVES TEMPERATURES TOWARD DEWPOINT VALUES. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY'S. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE BETTER HOLD ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS WED/WED EVENING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FIRST SPLITTING TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON THU. ALSO SOME LOW PRESSURE ENERGY SPLITTING OFF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL STRETCH OUT ALONG THE CA COAST.
THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES.
UPPER LOW ENTERS THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING. MAYBE A SECOND ROUND OF MONDAY PM CONVECTION AS THIS COLD CORE UPPER LOW'S EASTERN ADVANCEMENT PLACES ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 68 46 69 / 10 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 65 42 66 / 10 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 65 42 66 / 10 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 62 38 64 / 10 10 0 10.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH HERE AT THE SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY.
SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER. AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN NM/TX TODAY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL EXPAND EWD DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND EC DO INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM TOPPING THIS EXPANDING RIDGE ON FRI WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVG THROUGH THE AREA /EC IS STRONGER WITH THIS THAN THE GFS/.
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015 Just a quick update this evening to account for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory products that were in effect. Otherwise, going forecast still looks good, as isolated thunderstorms continue to be possible across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin as an upper low moves over the area tonight. /ISSUED 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/ A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push across the area this afternoon and Monday. This low will bring windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.
A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION, DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST. /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS.
1141 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE QUIET WEATHER FROM TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS NEAR IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. EXPECT THERE IS A STABILITY FACTOR AT PLAY WITH WEST FLOW OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS KEEPING 15-20 KNOTS WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SEA SURFACE. WHICH WAS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
816 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
950 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA, AND BE AS WARM AS THE LOW 70S ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE LIGHT WINDS THERE ARE POCKETS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WHERE TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER. WENT A BIT LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
720 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND WAVE. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
High cirrus will gradually build into the area from SW to NE late tonight into Monday associated with a slow moving upper low passing well to the south. There is a bit of lift on the northern fringe of this upper low, but lots of dry air to overcome in the mid levels for any precip to reach the ground. Better rain chances stay well south of the forecast area though as highs climb into the lower to middle 60s.
HI-RES MODELS FAVOR A NEW AREA OF T-STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS OUR W-NW COUNTIES AS THIS LOW TRANSLATES EAST AND SUBJECTS THESE AREAS TO A HEALTHY DEFORMATION ZONE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR SOMETIME MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING IS VERY LOW.
For tonight, a large upper level low pressure system will track across New Mexico and into the Texas panhandle. Cloud cover and northeast breezes should continue, as temperatures range from near 50 degrees in McDonald County, to the lower 40s in central Missouri. This upper low will continue east as it attempts to fill over time.
LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MONTANA BUT TROUGHINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon An upper low has closed over New Mexico early this afternoon and will move east over the Panhandle through tonight. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s over the northern half of the area and upper 70s to low 80s over the southern half of the area as a frontal boundary sags south through the area.
BEFORE VANGUARD CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY.
411 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 The area of low pressure that brought scattered showers and storms to the forecast area will continue offshore early Sunday, allowing cool high pressure to build into the region.
Upper trough situated over the area this morning continues to support snow showers, mainly in the Boise/West Central Mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon. A weak upper ridge with drier conditions in southeast Oregon will move into southwest Idaho this evening. Limited moisture within a northwest flow aloft will be enough for a chance of snow showers over the higher terrain Monday afternoon, mainly in the north. The departing trough and weak ridging will result in a warming trend through Monday, although temperatures will remain slightly below normal.
Surface ridging will produce light winds across the Tennessee valley.
A trough juts west from here through the Alberta front range where it gains a pacific characteristic over southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Weak ridging over the southern US Rockies and southern US Plains contrasts this cold air in southwest flow that runs up inti eastern Montana. Upstream a meso -ridge resides over northern BC with a meso- trough behind it in Yukon territory and the Alaskan Panhandle. Today through tonight: A closed low aloft has formed up in the southwest flow and is driving many of the mesoscale features over Montana including weak showers over low stratus. Monday through Monday night: By Monday a large chunk of the low stratus should begin lifting and dissipating as the northern BC meso-ridge moves through. Meanwhile a ridge off the coast of California will move inland.