Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
854 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A dying cold front will push southeast into the region tonight, then stall out across central Pennsylvania Thursday. The stalled front will lift back north as a warm front late this week bringing mild conditions along with a chance of showers into the weekend. Regional radar loop showing scattered showers accompanying a dying cold front across the eastern Grt Lks this evening. Can't rule out a couple lingering showers after midnight in vicinity of dying cold front over northern Pa. Thursday's highs should range from the low 70s over the northern mountains and Laurel Highlands, to around 80F across the Susq Valley.
A trough of low pressure is in the process of elongating NE to SW across Idaho and Oregon this evening. Mid- level low pressure embedded in the trough is spinning over east central Idaho spreading cloud cover and some shower activity over the central mountains. This low will stretch and lose much of its circulation overnight into early Thursday and showers will become less probable over the area.
/26/ Tonight and Thursday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to bring quiet weather to the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Thursday night through Wednesday: As we push into Thursday night we are still at the mercy of that upper level ridge. The high pressure at the surface has skirted to the east off coast, but warm and dry conditions will prevail throughout the night.
754 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A cold front is draped nearby the region overnight with plenty of moisture, but only a few scattered weak showers that will be able to push through.
The showers are arriving slightly faster than the high resolution models indicated a couple hours ago, and we have updated the PoPs/Weather to reflect the expected short term trends. A relative lull in precipitation chances will take place tonight into early Thursday morning with a cold front stalled out between I- 72 and I-70, then precipitation will increase Thursday as southerly flow across the area pushes the front northward as a warm front. Areas between I-72 and I-70 may see high temperatures increase a few degrees to around 80 due to the northward migration of the front through the day, but otherwise temperatures will be roughly the same as Wednesday with highs from the lower and mid 70s north of I-72 and the lower 80s south of I-70.
1026 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Aviation section updated A frontal boundary will settle into the region and stall overnight, before returning back northward as a warm front later in the week as the accompanying cold front pushes toward the area. Surface analysis late this evening shows low pressure near St. Water vapor shows a short wave associated with this feature along with abundant cloud cover ahead of the low.
/issued 348 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ (Tonight and Thursday) Upper level high pressure will build into the area from the east the next 24 hours, with generally dry and slightly warmer temperatures expected for Thursday. Other than a few showers possible across Crockett County, dry conditions will prevail on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 80s.
/issued 321 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. High pressure remains anchored over the southeast U.
Given the low dewpoints today, felt it was warranted to adjust down a few degrees further than what the day shift had.
Local ridging will likely keep low-mid level clouds minimal, with only cirrus making it into the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. Surface analysis features high pressure still centered over the central Appalachians and northeast. This moisture will slowly progress south as the high ever so slightly gives way a bit as a cold front approaching from the west will draw north more moisture. The challenging part of the forecast is when will the high retreat enough coupled with enough moisture to bring some showers at least into the western and northwestern portions of the forecast area.
Tight moisture gradient looks like it'll not make any progress eastward, as strong high pressure keeps us dry in the short term. The higher-res guidance is not so optimistic for rain (with optimism indicating a rainy forecast, giving a break from the streak of dry days). With the extra cloud cover, we should have a cooler day Thursday, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for southern IN and lower 80s in KY. The nights should see readings in the lower 60s with the cloud cover over the north and well into the 50s over southern KY, still in the dry air.
With the sub-freezing temperatures now in the forecast right along the border, have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Warning for that area. Currently, S/WV mid level ridge moving east across the Dakotas ahead of a large upper level low spinning over the Intermountain West. Otherwise expect a mostly clear sky north with winds tapering off allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 30s. S/WV ridge reforms for Thursday along with high pressure redeveloping across the state.
1106 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A dying cold front will push southeast into the region tonight, then stall out across central Pennsylvania Thursday. The stalled front will lift back north as a warm front late this week bringing mild conditions along with a chance of showers into the weekend. 0230Z regional radar loop showing a broken line of showers accompanying a dying cold front as it crosses Lake Erie. Expect a few lingering showers after 06Z in vicinity of dying cold front across northern Pa. Thursday's highs should range from the low 70s over the northern mountains and Laurel Highlands, to around 80F across the Susq Valley.
Prior discussion below: Tonight and Thursday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to bring quiet weather to the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Thursday night through Wednesday: As we push into Thursday night we are still at the mercy of that upper level ridge. The high pressure at the surface has skirted to the east off coast, but warm and dry conditions will prevail throughout the night.
526 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 An upper low currently sits across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Just north of the upper low is upper ridging across BC Canada setting up a blocking pattern over the western to central CONUS. A weak cold front will push through with some light showers possible over portions of northeast WY and northwest SD.
/issued 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ Upper-level ridge across the region to maintain dry conditions through the remainder of the work week. A frontal boundary stretching across the midwest and extending eastward into the Ohio River Valley along the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge to maintain mostly cloudy skies across much of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of days.
The distinct trough axis currently reaching northward through the eastern extreme of our service area will move slowly but steadily westward into and through Thursday morning. The gradient between tropical depression in the western Caribbean and the immense area of high pressure over the eastern United States is the culprit for the strong northeast to east winds.
Clouds were impacting temps at, which at 9pm ranged from the lower 70s over northeast AR to the lower 60s near the TN River. /issued 321 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. High pressure remains anchored over the southeast U.
615 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A mild night ahead as a warm front lifts northeast into western Nebraska tonight. The low clouds in the southwest spread north and east overnight, where temperatures should fall a few degrees overnight with low temperatures by daybreak still in the 50s.
/issued 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ The forecast area remains dominated by an upper ridge through the period. although the ridge slides westward a bit by Thursday.
Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain sandwiched between a strong upper level low over the northern Great Basin and a flat ridge of high pressure over West Texas.
744 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Tight pressure gradient persists across the Florida peninsula due to strong high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast and low pressure over the western Caribbean.
516 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain sandwiched between a strong upper level low over the northern Great Basin and a flat ridge of high pressure over West Texas.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Going forecast was in good shape, main update was to account for the low clouds over the eastern zones. Sunshine should warm places up to the 50s most places, but only 40s for Phillips County where melting snow will keep it cooler.
707 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Latest short range model guidance and observation trends indicate dense fog is likely especially in the favored upslope locations along the Cheyenne Ridge through midnight. Fog should begin to lift from the west later tonight as a cold front pushes in from the west. This trough should clear out the low clouds overnight as winds behind it turn downslope. Warmer and mainly dry weather expected Thursday with clouds increasing again in the afternoon as an impulse moves into the central Rockys.
832 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure will slowly shift south through tonight.
* None Scattered showers will taper off through the rest of the afternoon as a weakening cold front pushes through the remainder of SE MI. Dewpoints falling into the upper 40s, nearly a 20 degree decrease post frontal, with PWATS falling below an inch with the approaching ridge will provide clear skies heading into the overnight. A brief dry period tonight into Thursday as high pressure keeps the baroclinic zone to our south, aligned with the mean zonal flow setting up. This will be short lived as the next low pressure system is already in the works developing in the lee of the Rockies.
709 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Cold front has moved south to near a Springfield, Illinois to Columbia, Missouri line this afternoon. Highs tomorrow will still be able rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s and the front moves back north as a warm front late in the day. Britt A weak warm front along the Iowa and Missouri state line will continue to slowly lift north on Thursday night.
Winds are expected to remain light and variable as weak upper level ridging influences the mid-state.
1033 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A dying cold front will push southeast into the region tonight, then stall out across central Pennsylvania Thursday. The stalled front will lift back north as a warm front late this week bringing mild conditions along with a chance of showers into the weekend. 0230Z regional radar loop showing a broken line of showers accompanying a dying cold front as it crosses Lake Erie. Expect a few lingering showers after 06Z in vicinity of dying cold front across northern Pa. Thursday's highs should range from the low 70s over the northern mountains and Laurel Highlands, to around 80F across the Susq Valley.
/issued 418 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ Warm and pleasant day ongoing with dry high pressure reestablished over the region. High pressure progged similarly by models to hold through the remainder of the work-week keeping the area under a dry north to northeast flow aloft. None-the-less, will see a dry weather pattern persist with warm days continuing, but nights slightly cooler with drier air in place.
A frontal boundary will settle into the region and stall overnight, before returning back northward as a warm front later in the week as the accompanying cold front pushes toward the area. Surface analysis late this evening shows low pressure near St. Water vapor shows a short wave associated with this feature along with abundant cloud cover ahead of the low.
716 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Main concerns will be possible fog development tonight, especially in our southwest as a warm front approaches. Also, as the warm front approaches, chances for rain will increase. We will also likely begin the first waves of potentially heavy rain as we have good moisture transport by tomorrow, and hence issued a Flood Watch for our southeastern CWA as a cold front works its way slowly southeast.
741 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Winds backing from the surface into the upper levels is indicative of a ridge of high pressure residing over the area. This dry air has allowed for very warm air to reside in the mid and upper levels, and freezing levels remain fairly high at 15.
1150 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Radar and observed ceiling trends support that favorable isentropic ascent that was occurring along the trailing cold front is now slipping south of the Detroit Metro area. Scattered showers will taper off through the rest of the afternoon as a weakening cold front pushes through the remainder of SE MI. Dewpoints falling into the upper 40s, nearly a 20 degree decrease post frontal, with PWATS falling below an inch with the approaching ridge will provide clear skies heading into the overnight. A brief dry period tonight into Thursday as high pressure keeps the baroclinic zone to our south, aligned with the mean zonal flow setting up. This will be short lived as the next low pressure system is already in the works developing in the lee of the Rockies.
Cold front located just north of the Ohio river this morning.
/issued 341 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ A large upper-level ridge resides over the desert southwest into the central Rockies this morning. However, the monsoonal moisture plume extending northeast out of nrn MX and a slow-moving front in the central plains have produced a series of convective systems that have weakened the ridge to some extent over eastern CO and KS. Temperatures today should be very similar to yesterday - down just slightly from previous days with highs in the lower 90s on the Caprock and middle 90s in the Rolling Plains.
A cold front across central Indiana early this morning will exit the area today, taking chances for rain with it. The cold front is slowly shifting south through southern Indiana this morning. Forecast temps generally in the low to mid 80s looks very reasonable with little to no change needed.
This will improve pretty quickly this morning as high pressure currently over MN shifts across the region, bringing clearing skies.
1123 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front which will pass through during the day and evening today. High pressure builds on Saturday with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
/Issued 430 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ A closed upper low will remain fairly stationary across the central Rockies and central Plains states through the weekend. This closed upper low will be poised between two areas of upper high pressure regions: one just to the east of the closed upper low and one just to the west of it.
with a couple areas of ridging over SE U. Heights at 500mb are around 592-594dm across much of Texas really showing weak elongated ridging across the southern half of the U. This higher moisture has been the main driver behind daily showers and thunderstorms over the area despite higher 500mb heights which would suggest subsidence over SE Texas. Water vapor imagery does show an inverted trough or TUTT low just north of Yucatan in the Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, the upper level pattern early this morning was defined by a sprawling high pressure ridge over much of the CONUS, with a 594 dm high centered over northwest Arizona. Meanwhile, an inverted upper trough was over far west Texas and eastern Chihuahua Mexico.
808 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front which will pass through during the day and evening today. High pressure builds on Saturday with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
A nice change of pace with high temperatures this afternoon in the mid 80s and low in the 60s tonight! Upper ridging will continue to build in overnight, clearing skies by Saturday morning. Cloud cover should be generally decreasing as the weekend progresses as the upper ridge steadily builds in aloft.
Isolated-scattered storms then are forecast to refire along the cold front by early this afternoon across portions of southeast Missouri predominantly. High temperatures today should be much cooler than those of the past few days behind the front. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s which is a few degrees below normal. Lows tonight will be a few degrees below normal for mid July, in the low to mid 60s for most locations. Gosselin North-northwest flow aloft will keep the cold front settling south of the area and into the lower MS Valley on Saturday. The main focus/forcing has already shifted south of the CWA by 12Z Saturday as high pressure in the lower levels sinks southward into the mid MS Valley. Cooler and less humid conditions are expected on Saturday with highs not all that far from average.
/issued 344 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ Have a broad ridge over the Western U. After this low passes the ridge is expected to once again strengthen across the area. Mainly low pops in the extended will favor the higher elevations.
/issued 433 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A large upper level low currently centered just west of the Big Bend area will continue to move slowly west today. An area of showers and thunderstorms on the eastern side of this low are affecting Crockett County early this morning, with some eastward development of activity off of the outflow boundary being generated by the storms. However, as the low level jet diminishes, expect these storms to diminish by late morning. Although the upper low will move west today, additional scattered activity may affect mainly Crockett County again this afternoon. No precipitation is expected tonight, and lows should drop into the lower 70s most areas.
Overall the higher precip chances appear over far eastern OK and northwest AR, though any location will have a shot of precip this afternoon through evening.
A weak cold front responsible for the increase in coverage of storms will sink south on Saturday allowing the bulk of the thunderstorm coverage to remain along and south of I-40 with the best chances once again occurring in the afternoon and evening.
The only opportunity for moisture looks to come to us this evening into early Saturday with a weak 500mb trough rounding the top of the ridge. With 700mb temperatures only +11 to +12C, convective temperatures are in the low/mid 100s which is achievable. Today will feature high pressure initially overhead with cool surface temperatures. Mixing down from +11C yields dewpoints in the low 50s which is close to current readings. As mentioned above, we will see a front move across the area Saturday which will impact the high temperature forecast. Hottest readings ahead of the front, with mixing at/above 700mb temperatures yields readings in the low 100s.
Precip chances will continue across the region today, even as upper level ridging takes a bigger hold across the Intermountain West. An east to northeasterly flow prevailing north of the boundary and increased cloud cover, not to mention residual moisture from this widespread rainfall overnight, will keep highs from climbing much above the mid to upper 80s(F) further north with highs in the lower 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border. For tonight, expect lows down into the 60s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas.
Models are little slower to push the deep RH/cold front to our south now delaying it until late on Saturday.
This evening into tonight a chance for a few elevated thunderstorms (or remnants of storms) that may develop along a warm front building east. On the synoptic scale a mid/upper level longwave ridge will build across the Rockies into the Great Plains this weekend. A warm front ahead of this high pressure may result in thunderstorms Friday night then again Saturday afternoon.
A cold front to the north will also be slowly dropping south towards the state over the next day or two.
1002 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A series of weak lows will track along a stalled front over southern New England through early Saturday, as cool high pressure remains to our northeast.
An upper level inverted trough/shear axis located over northern Mexico/west Texas early this morning is enhancing thunderstorm activity across western Val Verde county. The upper level inverted trough is forecast to push to the northwest and west throughout the period. By Saturday, another upper level inverted trough is forecast to approach the area from the east while an upper level shear axis (between the sub-tropical upper level ridge over the central Rockies and upper level high pressure system located over Florida) pushes down into our area.
1138 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 More showers and storms in the humid airmass expected ahead of a cold front passing tonight. High pressure will build in for a drier weekend.
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Storms developed Thu afternoon along a cold front and aided by a weak upper impulse that was likely the result of remnant storm activity. Temps today should be a few degrees cooler than the last couple, due to most of the forecast area being north of the weak front that pushed through overnight. Upper ridging is expected to maintain over the Rockies and into the high Plains through the weekend. This will push a cold front across the northern Plains and will attempt to make it into the central Plains. Above normal temps look likely through these extended periods, especially for Tue on as upper ridging builds over the southern Plains.
1241 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front will continue to move through the area today bringing cooler and less humid conditions.
A cold front will slide across the region late today. The trough axis slides into New England on Saturday.
1142 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The threat for showers and storms will continue today with the slow passage of a cold front. Cooler and more comfortable for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to re-fire as a cold front and parent upper low approach from the northwest. The cold front will finally drive south of the area late tonight as the upper-level low pushes through. Northwest flow aloft and building high pressure will provide a drier and more comfortable weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. Scattered showers and possibly a few storms will be possible this morning as a cold front crosses this morning.
High pressure will build across the region for the weekend bringing hot temperatures. Ridge is building over the region but there remains a weak deformation zone over central Utah which is expected to rotate northeast this afternoon which will allow for a little more convection over northern Utah this afternoon, but still rather isolated and mostly tied to the terrain.
/issued 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ Wx map shows similar conditions the last few days, the surface Bermuda high ridging westward across the Gulf, providing a light south to southeast flow across the region. High pressure aloft covers most of the Midwest into the Gulf states region. Chances 40-50% across SE TX/SW LA, going a little higher 50-60% for C and SC LA with increased moisture with the approaching tropical wave and slight breakdown of the ridge aloft along the Gulf coast.
Otherwise for today, high pressure aloft will begin to relinquish its grip over the region, resulting in weak troughing and northwest flow to setup over the CWA in time for the upcoming weekend.
521 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Massive western CONUS ridge will bring hot conditions to the region the next few days. The FA will remain on the edge of the ridge with topping impulses slated to pass through the region, supporting ISOLD-SCT Ts at times in the region. Timing at peak heating will be more than enough to break the cap there and support sct TS along/near the trough from NE WY into NW SD.
Otherwise, overall forecast looks on track, with drier air and warmer temps aloft (-5C at 500mb) keeping overall convective coverage lower than normal.