Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Under partly cloudy skies with a fresh to occasionally strong northerly wind in place, temperatures range from the mid 50s in the Upper Keys to mid 60s in the Lower Keys.
313 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Dry and warmer is the main weather story the next few days. As the high slides off to the east later tonight and Wednesday, a return to south then southwest low level flow will signal a significant warmup for the middle of the week. Lots of sunshine this afternoon should help to offset limited mixing regime under surface ridging, but highs will remain below normal for the middle part of March. Thus highs approaching 20 degrees warmer than this afternoon are not out of the question. Meanwhile an upper low currently in the Eastern Pacific will swing a trough into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon.
Clear skies with high pressure above the fog, so sunshine should dissipate most of the fog during the morning. Temperatures warm to near or above freezing, for continued snow melt. High pressure will be still over the northern plains tonight for fog to reform under the nighttime inversion, so may need another dense fog advisory for Wednesday morning.
00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure still well back to the NW of the region across NW Arkansas. The local area will be on the backside of an upper level trough which will continue to usher in cooler and dry air on northwest flow.
There is some question as to how low temperatures will radiate late tonight, but with the high moving by so quickly it appears the window of opportunity for calm winds is brief, so have only lowered temperatures a degree or two in our southwest, nearer to the center of the high and coincident with the Nish valley.
221 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Omega blocking pattern aloft still set up across U. and Canada early this morning with low #1 just off the west coast, a high amplitude ridge over the Rockies and low #2 currently centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a Canadian high pressure system was building into the area from the north-northwest.
Surface pressure ridging continues into our area, though begins to drift to the east on Wednesday.
409 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 An upper trough is over the eastern conus and another one is beginning to move over the west coast. Upper ridging will develop over the central part of the country on Wednesday with the 2 upper troughs in place over the western and eastern U.
The cold upper trough is expected to nudge to the east this evening with a weak warm air advection pattern developing later tonight into Wednesday morning as a weak frontal system drops over the state wednesday. Low temperatures tonight may be more of an early night low before turning steady, especially if clouds can develop along and ahead of the weak warm front.
311 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 High pressure extended from the Dakotas to the Sabine River Basin this morning as another nor'easter is cranking up off the Atlantic Coast. The nor'easter will not be in any hurry to move away from New England, leaving the only direction for the Dakotas high pressure to move is south or south-southeast.
Today, high pressure will continue to build southward into eastern Kansas resulting in another day with temperatures in the 50s and northerly winds generally 10 mph or less through the day. Tonight the center of the high will slide south across eastern Kansas this evening then into the southern Plains later tonight. Return flow on the back side of the low develops across eastern Kansas overnight, Expect temperatures to bottom out in the mid 20s overnight then begin to rise as winds become southwest late in the night.
Elevated fire weather develops in the west tomorrow afternoon with increasing south winds and warmer temperatures.
/NF/ Surface analysis had a 1036mb high centered over the Northern Plains and ridging south over the Lower Mississippi river valley. Temperatures were running a couple degrees warmer than anticipated across our north but, provided the wind does become lighter as expected, the current forecast remains on track. Nevertheless, temperatures in the low to mid 30s and light winds should support considerable frost development over the northeast two thirds. Slightly warmer high temperatures look probable with upper 50s and 60s. /26/ For the mid week period (Wed to Thu): Evolving nor'easter will be responsible for carving out a large E CONUS trough and that will serve to keep the cold airmass entrenched over our region for a few days. The result of this will be a few more opportunities to see near/below freezing conditions.
311 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Quiet conditions are expected through the next several days as troughing over the Great Lakes gradually transitions eastward, keeping any disturbances east of the Plains through the end of the work week.
The highly amplified blocking pattern will break down, transitioning to a less amplified and more progressive regime.
323 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Upper trough will recarve itself over the eastern U. Troughing will extend southwestward and a weak impulse will skirt our northern Plateau late this afternoon and into this evening. For tonight, freezing temps expected with lows in the 20s. No freezing product will be issued but will highlight the freezing temps in the hwo. Moving on, still cold on Wednesday, especially along the Plateau where they will be further into the teeth of a rather strong thermal trough. In fact, even with more in the way of sunshine, highs on Wednesday in the Plateau will be no warmer than the mid 40s or so.
Otherwise, light to moderate northwest flow aloft will remain in place until passage of a sharp upper-level ridge on Wednesday. Temperatures next 24 hours are expected to run near to slightly above average with highs on the plains in the low to mid 50s, and from the mid 30s to near 50 degrees across the high country.
346 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 With an area of high pressure over the region, along with clear skies and light winds, patchy to areas of fog seems likely. High temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday. However, south central SD should be warmer due to southerly winds this afternoon, along with limited snow cover.
High pressure aloft will provide the area with dry weather and above normal high temperatures today into Wednesday.
Today Through Wednesday A high amplitude upper ridge will be over the Rockies today and only move into the Plains by Wednesday. This high will be over Arkansas Wednesday morning. The cooler temperatures will bring patchy frost to areas north of Little Rock this morning and over most of the area Wednesday morning.
High pressure will move through the Northland today, warmer air will move in from the west, and a weak cold front will move through the Northland late tonight and Wednesday morning.
Above normal temperatures can be expected today ahead of a cold front that will move across the state tonight and Wednesday.
/issued 424 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ Latest surface analysis shows a large ridge of high pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Overnight lows will likely be near or below freezing across much of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas.
137 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Cooler and drier air will overspread the region tonight as a low pressure system off the NC coast moves north.
The main feature of interest for today is the rather stout looking mid-level disturbance, currently noted in the water vapor channels shifting southward along the western periphery of the upper low in place across the Upper Great Lakes. Lows tonight should drop into the lower 20s. Temperatures are expected to be on the cooler side through late week, especially near Lake Michgian where onshore flow looks to result in the coolest daytime highs.
It will be quite pleasant today, with light east to northeast winds and afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 60s for most of the area.
213 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the eastern Dakotas into the central plains. Wednesday, upper and thermal ridge peak over the CWA with spring- like temperatures.
Upper level low is centered near 40/135 while a 985 mb low is 380 miles west of the Oregon coast and moving north.
Not much change with the slow moving cold front Wednesday.
Otherwise, northwest flow aloft will remain in place until passage of a sharp upper-level ridge on Wednesday. Temperatures next 24 hours are expected to run near to slightly above average with highs on the plains in the low to mid 50s, and from the mid 30s to near 50 degrees across the high country.
343 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 High pressure over the Northern Plains will be the main influence over the region and will move southeast through Tuesday evening. A broad trough over the eastern one third of the country will continue to very slowly move to the east through Tuesday evening.
Cooler Today with Spotty Showers Possible over the Mountains. Meanwhile, upper high pressure, with a weak embedded disturbance, will build into the western half of the forecast area. This disturbance could bring some spotty light showers to the higher terrain this afternoon through this evening. Though, any accumulations will be spotty and light, generally only amounting to about an inch or 2 across the higher terrain. Elsewhere, it'll be a bit cooler today as the airmass across the region is cooling behind the disturbance moving through. Under partly cloudy skies and light upslope winds, temperatures across the plains should be a little cooler than average today. Initially, generally dry and warm conditions are still anticipated over the majority of the forecast district from Wednesday into Wednesday evening as upper ridging moves across southern Colorado.
Otherwise, upper level ridging will move overhead today and tomorrow.
352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Large scale troughing across the eastern US, and amplified troughing upstream over the Rockies continues to maintain northern flow over the Northern Plains this morning. Today-Tonight: Rising heights aloft as ridging shifts eastward and increasing WAA associated with developing westerly BL flow will support near to above normal temperatures again today (warmest favored in eastern locations near pine forests of MN). A weak cold front is expected to pass through the region on Wednesday bringing a shift to northerly winds by the afternoon with a few clouds.
Warm today ahead of Pacific cold front, and significantly cooler Wednesday. Pacific cold front is expected to pass through eastern Oregon late tonight, southwest Idaho 4-8 AM MDT Wednesday, and south- central Idaho mid-morning Wednesday.
344 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Generally light N to NE winds and mostly clear skies are expected today as high pressure slides into the region. High pressure will slide off to the east, allowing onshore flow to return late Wednesday.
445 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the eastern Dakotas into the central plains. Wednesday, upper and thermal ridge peak over the CWA with spring- like temperatures.
Diurnal warming combined with modest moisture and a weak disturbance in northwest flow is expected to yield isolated showers over the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains Tuesday afternoon. The remainder of Tuesday night will be dry with cirrus beginning to spill over eastern Utah and western Colorado ahead of a low pressure trough over the West Coast. Models indicated the trough and its associated front will plow through the region Wednesday night bringing the likelihood of rain and snow to the region.
202 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A broad upper trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon will translate eastward, with the flow aloft over our region transitioning from northwesterly to westerly. The flow aloft will be rather weak, but this will help spread a low level thermal ridge over the region the next couple of days, and send high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.
Expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible as low level moisture remains abundant and upper level ridging continues across the Gulf of Mexico. Highs on Saturday will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s. As the upper level ridge shifts west, better northerly and northwest flow becomes established.
A cold front extended just east of a Danville to Olney line at 3 am cdt and will push through far eastern IL by dawn. A much cooler and less humid day with breezy WNW winds gusting 20-30 mph. A 562 dm 500 mb low over north central WI will track east into northern lower MI by sunset with its strong upper level trof moving east over IL by midday today. Skies become clear around sunset this evening with cool lows in the low to mid 50s.
Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer this evening in response to increased cloud cover.
An upper low center off the Central CA coast near 38N/129W is producing an easterly flow aloft which is pulling in mid/upper level moisture of tropcial origin from the southwestern CONUS. The low is progged to slowly track inland over the weekend as a deepening upper level trough off the PAC NW coast pushes the low east.
245 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 An upper low to our northeast will continue to track eastward, which will put us into consistent northwesterly flow aloft as we head into this weekend. This evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Nebraska and track towards the area as the low-level jet veers into the area.
324 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are associated with the trough axis rounding southern GA will continue to swing through southern GA into the Suwannee River Valley of Northern FL across southeastern GA into this evening. 3" remain in a narrow swath from the western FL panhandle to southeastern GA will help continue shower and tstorm activity until the mid-level ridge builds further westward tonight. Upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast will shift east and northeast through Saturday.
319 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Cooler pattern has brought temperatures down, with rain chances on the way. 500mb heights generally were decreasing across the CONUS but particularly associated with the Great Lakes trough and in the northwestern US. An 850mb high was centered over central KS, with a ridge axis extending through central NE into the central Dakotas, and a deep and deepening 850mb low was centered from northern Lake Michigan toward eastern Lake Superior. A cold pocket behind the low had brought temperatures as low as 5C to eastern IA, while 20C+ temperatures extended westward from the Rockies.
Gusts will hover in the mid 20 knot range through the evening hours in the wake of a strong low pressure system. Last evening's convection in advance of potent early August cold front and upper wave was diminishing in intensity early this morning. Additional thunderstorms continue to develop on the outflow of this convection and then back toward the actually cold front and upper wave in northwest Lower MI. Chance POPs for showers look good for this time period with the highest across the Tri Cities and Thumb Region.
Temps today will be warmer than yesterday, with highs in the 70s over the high valley areas, and mostly in the 80s over the southeast plains.
304 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail for the rest of today until a strong cold front pushes east through the region tonight, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. The latest several runs of the RAP13 continue to paint an area of increasing 0-1km EHI working its way gradually nwd across the lower and mid Susq Valley during the afternoon hours. Storms will persist for a few hours after dark (01-06z Sat) given the degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper level system and timing of the seasonably strong surface cold front. Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
255 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 The upper low over northern Lake Michigan early this afternoon continues to rotate eastward with the more expansive shield of low cloud shifting east of the area as subsidence occurs behind the wave.
Surface winds shift to northerly on Saturday as a pre-frontal trough sets up from northern CO into the NE panhandle. Convection appears to be most likely along this trough over the southern Panhandle and along the actual cold front pressing south into Converse and Niobrara Counties late in the day.
Min temps will be in the upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south.
Mostly cloudy skies overnight will keep low temperatures steady in the low to mid 70s across the region.
A large and potent upper level trough, especially for early August, continues to reside across the central and eastern CONUS with its base across the deep South. This activity is expected to spread eastward through the remainder of the morning, with widespread showers expected due to the deep layer moisture combined with forcing from the aforementioned trough.
there remains a small threat for an isolated late day storm across the north interior, but will need a late sea breeze collision for any chance whatsoever given how dry the low-mid levels are. Low level ridge axis remains over the central CWA as a small slug of moisture advects N-NE around the western flank of the Bermuda ridge and across north Florida and the northern CWA.
255 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A few showers and thunderstorms should develop across mainly far southern Oklahoma and western north Texas near a weak cold front this afternoon. A more likely scenario for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening will be along and near a cold front in central and southern Kansas.
While the cloud cover has helped keep instability down a bit, the highest CAPE is across central GA. lows in the low/mid 60s across the north to low 70s in central GA. Highs in the low/mid 80s in the higher terrain to mid/upper 80s elsewhere. A stationary front across the n to central GA area and the passage of an upper level trough will have brought much diminished shower and storm chances to the area Saturday night.
349 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong PV anomaly across the Great Lakes region, helping to carve out a trough across the eastern CONUS. For tonight, an area of high pressure currently centered over eastern KS will spread eastward across Missouri. It will likely be in the low 60s within the urban heat island of St. This will cause the front that moved through as a cold front yesterday, to lift northward as a warm front.
322 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front approaches from the west tomorrow and cross the state Saturday night.
As heights slowly fall due to troughing moving towards the Northern Plains, the LLJ will begin to increase after 4am and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may try to form along this gradient. The alignment of this axis should keep the highest rain chances west of I-29 into mid- morning Saturday.
By Saturday morning, the warm front bisects the CWA with ongoing showers and thunderstorms forecast across the western half of the CWA. Models are consistent with lee cyclogenesis occurring over eastern CO in the afternoon with strong moisture transport lifting over the warm front in the area. Surging moisture in the low levels where MUCAPE values exceed 3000 J/KG combine with ample effective shear across areas along and south of Interstate 70. GFS ensembles for the Topeka area average close to 4 inches while the 00Z and 06Z NAM runs produce Overall, there remains some uncertainty on where ingredients align for the heavy rainfall, however consensus is trending towards locations along/east of highway 75 and south of Interstate 70 to see the higher rainfall rates and therefore potential for flash flooding late Saturday afternoon and evening.
316 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Surface analysis reveals the cold front east of I-65 at this hour. Satellite shows clearing behind the front as drier and cooler air is advecting into the lower Ohio Valley. Canadian high pressure will keep the region cool and dry tomorrow, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s.
Coverage of thunderstorms to increase some across the area late tonight as a boundary lifts back north as a warm front.
A weak, upper- level cut-off low, currently off the Northern California Coast, will progress eastward over California this weekend and help cool off temperatures some.
Large upper level trough with multiple smaller troughs embedded with in it is encompassing almost all of the conus and Canada. Cold front passed through early today with just a few light showers. Wrap around moisture combined with lake effect moisture from 850mb temps sub 10c, 500mb trough axis over Lake Michigan and diurnal heating is producing scattered shower activity over western Michigan. Skies will clear later tonight from the west behind the departing trough.
143 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will approach from the west late today and will weaken while crossing the region early on Saturday.
246 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A trough will remain near the coast through the weekend. A cold front approaching from the northwest will be near the forecast area tonight and Saturday.
311 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Upper level low pressure trough in Canada late this afternoon will continue to make its way southeast into our region tonight and Saturday. With the cloud cover and cooler air, 70s for highs on Saturday look good. An upper level low pressure trough in Canada will be moving into our region tonight and Saturday.
More thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours as a weak cold front moves through the region. An upper level low pressure system digging across the Great Lakes today will help to advance a surface cold front across the area. The cold front should push south of the region by this evening with a cooler and drier airmass filtering south. Dry and cooler conditions will continue into Saturday with seasonably low humidity.
213 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front crossing tonight will usher cooler weather and less humid air this weekend.
1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Awesome weather expected today with high pressure across the area. High pressure shifts to the east tonight allowing return southerly flow to develop. Temps will be held down in the lower 70s, and not much sunshine expected.
332 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail for the rest of today until a strong cold front pushes east through the region tonight, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. The latest several runs of the RAP13 continue to paint an area of increasing 0-1km EHI working its way gradually nwd across the lower and mid Susq Valley during the afternoon hours. Storms will persist for a few hours after dark (01-06z Sat) given the degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper level system and timing of the seasonably strong surface cold front. Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 The cold front has moved south across most of the state. but chances for SHRA and some TSRA will return to the forecast for Sat morning as the cold front lifts back north as a warm from. Water vapor imagery this morning show the major players quite well, mainly upper ridging over the west and downstream troughing centered over the upper midwest with an upper low centered over northern Wisconsin. Surface reflection is centered to the east of the upper low with the associated cold front located from north of Mena to near Conway to near Jonesboro. High pressure builds into the north this afternoon with some cooler and drier air filtering in. As the high builds into the Tennessee Valley tonight, the cooler and drier air will filter further south.