Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today will unfortunately be just the beginning as the upper level heat ridge continues to build eastward into the region. After a warmer and more humid night tonight, we'll continue the warm-up again on Tuesday with upper 90s expected areawide and a few spots getting close to heat indices of 105 degrees.
Wraparound moisture associated with the area of low pressure moving to the northeast continues to bring showers across the central Idaho mountains this morning. Drier and warmer conditions then expected on Tuesday.
Sunny skies and highs in the low 90s are expected for yet another day. The greatest uncertainty is the northern tier of counties in the advisory, which may be slightly cooler depending on how far south the boundary makes it.
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
This moisture and warmer temps are expected to move into the area through the short term period. Low chance for storms late in the period as a cold front moves through the area. This will help to advance a cold front southeast towards the area during the afternoon. Shear is 15 to 20 knots and all focused in the lower 0-3km.
VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure in control. Discussion: Ridge of high pressure is centered just to our west. This places our area on the eastern periphery of the high which yields northerly flow across our area. The northerly flow is keeping dewpoints quite low for this time of year and RH values will bottom out this afternoon in the low to upper 20s.
(The rest of today ) Drier air that moved in overnight allowed for some morning lows in the low 60s and upper 50s this morning for a brief reprieve from the heat and humidity.
206 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper trough moving through the region today will continue to bring areas of showers and thunderstorms through the evening. The upper trough will lift north and east of the area tonight, causing showers and thunderstorms to gradually decrease. Flow turns more zonal over the area on Tuesday as the aforementioned trough exits the region. Weather turns more unsettled by the end of the work week as a blocking pattern upstream puts the area under cyclonic northwest flow.
Any isolated storm chance this afternoon and evening will stay west of the forecast area closer to theta-e axis and more displaced from H5 ridge center. With the increase in dewpoints, overnight lows tonight will be warmer than they were last night. H5 ridge center will shift back west over the region and will control the weather for much of the work week ahead.
Rain chances should wane pretty quickly after sunset tomorrow, as daytime heating is lost and the H25 ridge begins to re-assert itself, with the the aforementioned low moving inland to our south.
1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (Today and tonight) A large upper level high, currently centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, will remain in place today and tonight. With a bit of strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, highs today are expected to be at or slightly hotter than yesterday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
An upper low/trough currently over the northern Rockies and northern plains will move east during the period, running across the northern side of the ridge and working to flatten it. Without an influx of cool air, our air mass will continue modify and heat up under the ridging aloft.
Discussion: The center of an mid-upper level anticyclone is located across the Midsouth or middle Mississippi River Valley placing the Southern Appalachians within northerly upper level flow. The surface reflection consists of high pressure across much of the region supporting weak surface flow. The lower atmosphere continues to be fairly dry with dewpoint depressions on the order of 20-30 degrees. The upper level ridge will only slightly retrograde westward while surface ridging dominates the area. With 850mb temperatures nearly 2-4 degrees warmer on Tuesday compared to today, expect high temperatures tomorrow to be warmer as well.
No severe weather expected next few days as upper ridging builds in early this week then is flattened mid-week with quasi-zonal before troughing arrives over the weekend. Showers currently diving southeast over upper ridge axis to the west of Lower Michigan, affecting areas east of our forecast area. As the upper ridging builds in we can expect warmer temperatures for Tuesday along with increasing dew points, which will combine to bring heat index readings in the upper 90s during Tuesday afternoon, but remaining below advisory levels.
(This evening through Tuesday) An upper level high pressure, currently over the southern Mississippi River Valley, will be the domineering force for the weather in West Central Texas over the short-term portion of the forecast. The upper high will begin to pivot clockwise and retrograde back towards eastern Texas overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with generally light winds out of the south to southeast under mostly clear skies. Otherwise, highs will be in the upper 90s to low 100s with no real strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. However, with the increased subsidence from both the surface and upper level low working against the convection, if these showers/storms do form, they are expected to remain very light and highly isolated in nature.
High pressure will bring mostly clear skies and light winds across the region for the next 24 hours. Discussion: Ridge of high pressure is centered just to our west. This places our area on the eastern periphery of the high which yields northerly flow across our area. The northerly flow is keeping dewpoints quite low for this time of year and RH values will bottom out this afternoon in the low to upper 20s.
Tomorrow will be slightly warmer (mid 90s to lower 100s, with heat indices in that same range) with calmer winds.
1111 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Tranquil weather with low humidity to start the work week will trend warmer, more humid, and stormy heading into midweek. However, placement of warm front will be critical for lingering showers over the far eastern part of the area. 24hrMaxT deltas are +10 to +20F warmer over the western 1/2 of the CWA with highs ramping into the low-mid 80s.
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will keep the area dry through the middle part of the week.
There is a bit of a ridge/valley split this morning with lower 50s in the valleys and mid to upper 50s at the ridges. Tonight there should be more of a pronounced ridge/valley split as 850 mb temps increase to around +21 C. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s in the valleys, to upper 50s and lower 60s at the ridges. The NBM seems too aggressive with high temps, so leaned more towards the 25th percentile, which still results in afternoon high temps in the lower 90s.
Low pressure across northcentral Montana continues to bring wrap around moisture across the continental divide into much of Northwest Montana. The upper low will slowly move eastward.
349 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Warmth and moisture will be on the rise through the midweek period with persistent ridge to the west. A highly amplified ridge across the MS valley today will help keep the column mostly dry with meager PWATs in place. Some mid/high clouds will likely continue to spill around the ridge axis during this time with partly cloudy skies prevailing - and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy skies at times. High temperatures will only be very slightly warmer on Tuesday compared to today. With mid to upper ridge just to the west, warming trend continues into mid week.
The aforementioned nearly stationary frontal boundary will finally be kicked eastward late this afternoon and evening, thus becoming a more progressive cold frontal boundary, as a trough west of the forecast area lifts up through the northern Plains. The consequence is that this trough itself is already forcing thunderstorms southwest of the forecast area. As a result, cooler temperatures, of which are actually near average for this time of the year, and gusty winds out of the northwest are expected for Tuesday. The period starts out with a lowly amplified ridge moving over the region, while high pressure resides at the surface over eastern South Dakota/Nebraska and gradually meanders eastward.
A strengthening mid-level ridge will result in increasing subsidence on Tuesday.
228 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure at the surface will maintain its hold for the next couple of days, while increasing aloft.
119 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 After a beautiful cool morning across Middle Tennessee, the heat unfortunately returns this afternoon as an upper ridge builds over the state. Yes, spring comes to an end in about 24 hours and while we'll be a little warmer today, we're only going to be running a couple of degrees above normal with continued dry air in place. On Tuesday, look for the upper ridge currently situated to our west to start exerting itself over the region again. This will push temperature a few degrees warmer than today. However, without much of southerly boundary layer push, dew points should remain in the low to mid 60s, so it'll be hot again, but it shouldn't be as oppressive as last week.
1215 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (The rest of today ) Drier air that moved in overnight allowed for some morning lows in the low 60s and upper 50s this morning for a brief reprieve from the heat and humidity.
A strengthening mid-level ridge will result in increasing subsidence on Tuesday. /Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ /Tuesday Through the End of the Month/ As a mid-latitude trough emerges from the Rockies and ejects into the Northern Plains today, the subtropical ridge that has been displaced to our east will deamplify and pivot clockwise. The ridge will remain anchored overhead for the remainder of the week, and triple-digit temperatures will become more prevalent as a result.
Upper level trough over the Great Basin will lift north of Colorado today. Can't rule a shower or storm over the far northeast corner this evening as the cold front pushes through, otherwise the area will be rain free. Dry cooler air behind the cold front will bring a cool night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. This pattern is due to the upper level trough axis pushing northward.
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Sunny and hot conditions are in store for the beginning of the work week as the upper-level ridge axis becomes centered directly overhead. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s area wide with even warmer temperatures in the upper 90s expected on Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night and bring some relief in addition to shower and thunderstorm chances.
114 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure at the surface will maintain its hold for the next couple of days, while increasing aloft.
The Guadalupe Mountains received impressive amounts of rain yesterday so there is a concern for flooding there as well as low water crossings farther east into the lower elevations of Eddy County. Upper level high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley will build farther west tomorrow as indicated by 500mb heights increasing from 591 to 594dam. The high pressure system will also help push afternoon highs tomorrow up a degree or two.
/issued 1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ Strong upper ridge is centered over the Mid-South today. /issued 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ Current temperatures are running 2-4 degrees cooler than last night but range considerably, from the middle 50s near the Tennessee river to the low 70s at Memphis and Oxford. Some guidance hints at the possibility of a weak front stalling near the Tennessee Kentucky state line midweek resulting is a chance of rain, but given the strength of the ridge, this scenario seems unlikely.
247 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Key Messages: - Record warm lows possible tonight - Hot and humid tomorrow with afternoon storm chances RECORD WARM LOWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT: Highly amplified large scale pattern over the CONUS will begin to breakdown as the longwave trough over the western U. The ridge will then flatten and become more zonal spreading across much of the CONUS. Ahead of the front tonight, the eastern edge of the low- level moisture transport gradient will approach allowing for some storm chances. As the cold front continues to propagate southeast across the forecast area tomorrow, locations in the southeastern half of the forecast area are forecast to remain cloud free (20. LOOKING AHEAD: Above average temperatures continue through the work week as the Upper Mississippi Valley stays on the warm side of broad, low amplitude ridging.
1052 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 With the trough axis sweeping to the east today, most of the thunderstorm energy will remain off to the north and east through the afternoon. The trough pushed through a cold front a few hours ago, so the cold pool behind it will be settling across the state, keeping temperatures a good 10 degrees below normal for the last day of Spring, with the NW higher elevations struggling to get into the 40s. The trough sweep into the Northern Plains quickly tonight into Tuesday, with general westerly flow aloft setting up.
As an upper trough moves across the region today, we are still expecting areas of showers and thunderstorms to develop, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible over southeast Montana this afternoon/evening. STP Water vapor imagery showing a deep upper trough over northeast Idaho with a strong upper ridge over the southern Plains. Energy spinning off of the low with a deep southerly moisture feed caused all the convection yesterday. The upper low has moved farther east today and this will take the deep moisture flow into the far eastern parts of Wyoming and Montana and the much of the northern Plains. This points to the highest cape (500-1000j/kg) over the east. The upper trough lifts across the forecast area tonight and weakens. Today and Tuesday will be cool with highs in the lower 70s.
Cloud cover looks a bit slow to scatter through the afternoon, but should see some clearing in the lowlands. Low cloud cover looks to hang on across a good portion of the high terrain and along portions of the Coast today. Weak ridging will make for mostly dry conditions today.
Tuesday, high pressure begins build back over the area with an increase in northeasterly wind flow. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s along the east coast with the breeze to the low 90s in the metro, interior and west coast.
236 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Through Tuesday: Broad ridging will remain the primary influence across our area through tomorrow, maintaining mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. /DL/ A very large, anomalous 596dm upper ridge will be entrenched across the region, budging very little through the week. The upper ridge will weaken just a tad and shift west, becoming more centered over Texas late in the week and into the weekend.
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will bring a seasonable day today with low humidity.
315 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure across the region will give way to an approaching warm frontal boundary late tonight and Tuesday.
318 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 The upper level low across swrn WY featuring -20C h500mb air will lift northeast through MT tonight. The RRquad jet will send a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The upper level low will cause modest cooling aloft across nwrn Nebraska with h500mb temps falling to around -10C. The upper low lifts into Canada during the day Tuesday and this should shunt the subtropical moisture plume south into KS.
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Aviation --Early Monday Morning showers possible-- Moisture streaming southward on the eastward side of a building ridge continues to dissipate as showers move into the dry, stable air of Central and Southwest Michigan. -- Warm and Dry through the week -- The upper level ridge will continue to move over the region through Tuesday bringing a dry and hot air mass over the region.
308 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected to dominate the short term period as the region remains under the influence of ridging aloft along with broad high pressure at the surface. Current surface analysis reveals the 1026 mb high pressure is centered just to our east over the Mid-Atlantic region, expanding across much of the eastern third of the CONUS. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed nicely into the mid to upper 80s so far, with a few locations expected to push into the lower 90s by mid-late afternoon. Satellite imagery indicates mostly clear skies across the region, with some passing mid-high clouds streaming over eastern KY keeping temperatures a touch cooler here. Expect seasonably warm temps then overnight, with lows in the lower to mid 60s for most into Tuesday morning.
1254 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will begin slowly sliding east of the area tonight which will keep the cooler air in place and allow for one more night of below normal temperatures.
Lows mainly in the lower 70s with some cooler spots across the interior and warmer along the barrier islands. The influence of the ridge aloft across the southeast states and NE flow in the H9-H7 layer will keep much of east central FL dry on Tue with high temperatures from 86-88 near the coast to the lower 90s from Orlando westward. The ridge across the southeast will continue to influence the weather into mid week and bring hotter temperatures. The low level winds will veer to SSW/SW into late week with highs reaching the mid-upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the Treasure Coast.
Upper low propgates north of the region tomorrow, which should limit any impacts across our region. Wed will feature nothing but a (near) windless summer day with high temps near seasonal values from the upper 70s to mid 80s, before a series of troughs badgers the region with chances for tstms during the period from Thu through Sat. Main upper trough would look to be east of the area by Sun. Looking at temps, upper ridging is expected to redevelop in the Southern Plains, and likely develop its crest into the Northern Plains, but not nearly as amplified as the current upper ridge over the region. A dome of warmth underneath this ridge should reach into the Northern Plains by Thu/Fri, likely reintroducing temps into the 90s.
However, these pleasant temperatures have quickly rebounded into the lower 90s as of midday, with middle and upper 90s still on track for highs this aftn.
An upper level high was centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley early this afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level low was emerging from the northern Rockies onto the northern High Plains. The best dynamics will be found across the western and northern part of the CWA this afternoon and tonight as these areas are closest to the upper trough lifting out from the Rockies. A cold front is expected to move across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle before stalling late Tuesday morning.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Dominant upper-level ridge will only continue to strength its grip on the region through the short-term as the center of the ridge axis shifts farther SW and anchors itself right over our CWA. Fortunately, dew points have held mainly in the 60s today although moisture is beginning to creep back northward from the Gulf as evidenced by the lower 70 dew points in parts of Deep East Texas.
Cold front arrives Tuesday night. An MCS across northern Michigan is currently weakening, but remnant cloud cover may spread southward along the eastern edge of the upper-level ridge. As the ridge builds eastward, upstream flow will weaken and cloud cover should gradually dissipate within large scale subsidence. Tuesday into Tuesday night Clear skies continue into Tuesday, with the axis of the ridge now overhead. Temperatures are expected to be much warmer as well, with highs in the mid 90s for most locations. Thankfully, the heat will be short-lived as a cold front arrives late Tuesday night.
Upper level ridge is centered over the region with mostly sunny skies and temps climbing into the 90s.
1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Sunny and hot conditions are in store for the beginning of the work week as the upper-level ridge axis becomes centered directly overhead. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s area wide with even warmer temperatures in the upper 90s expected on Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night and bring some relief in addition to shower and thunderstorm chances.
1139 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (Rest of Today) High pressure overhead continues today allowing for a hot, but not that humid day across the Tennessee Valley.
Expect the weak surface cold front to push across the area this evening and overnight, but RH recoveries will be poor. Overnight lows will still remain on the cooler side, with temperatures in the upper 30s across our western forecast zones upward to the low 50s in the NE Panhandle. Tuesday night will also remain near seasonal norms with temperatures bottoming out in the low 40s to mid 50s across the cwa.
334 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 A persistent and stout ridge aloft maintains its grip over the region today. The latest WV imagery shows considerable dry air aloft associated with the ridge has spread acrs much of our LA Parishes.
1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Southerly winds at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts will decrease this evening and veer a little ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move through the DHT and GUY TAF sites around or just after sunrise switching the winds around to the northwest at speeds around 10 knots. At this point, it looks like the cold front will not make it to the AMA TAF site.
Afternoon heat indices have risen into the low 100s, as an upper ridge maintains it's hold over the southeastern CONUS. An approaching trough and associated cold front will bring increasing chances for precipitation late this afternoon and evening over the region. As the cold front passes through the region tonight and Tuesday, it will bring only minor relief from the heat.
343 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front could then advance into or stall near the region late week into the weekend. The high will continue to bring our area dry conditions and unseasonably low dew points. Expect minimums to range from around 60 degrees far inland, the mid 60s across most of our area, and the lower 70s at the beaches. Aloft, the forecast area will be positioned between a large ridge over the southern and southeastern U. and a trough to the east.
1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Strong upper ridge is centered over the Mid-South today. /issued 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ Current temperatures are running 2-4 degrees cooler than last night but range considerably, from the middle 50s near the Tennessee river to the low 70s at Memphis and Oxford. Some guidance hints at the possibility of a weak front stalling near the Tennessee Kentucky state line midweek resulting is a chance of rain, but given the strength of the ridge, this scenario seems unlikely.
231 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper level trough axis continues to lift northeast out of the region with a few showers/storms lingering over the Eastern Utah Mountains and along the Wyoming state line in Northwest Colorado. Pattern adjustment arrives on Tuesday as flow starts to bend back around the the south and southwest as a low pressure system sets up off the West Coast and upper level ridging builds across East Texas. Temperatures will be dependent on low level influx of moisture with the drier conditions allowing more significant warming (central and northern zones) with slightly cooler conditions where surface moisture improves.
There is a chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon with the passage of the cold front.
249 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure ridging over the area will continue to bring dry and quiet weather to ENC early this week. Unsettled weather may return to the area mid to late week as troughing persists over the Southeast. Upper level ridging pattern begins to break down mid to late week, bringing a more unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.