Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs yesterday were in the lower 70s, and with the southwest flow we should see highs several degrees warmer today. Lows tonight will be warmer as well with lows near 50.
With nearly zonal flow set up aloft, expect for light westerly winds on Sunday and temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s! Sunday temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late November so be sure to enjoy it! Monday will also see above normal temperatures with highs reaching the lower to mid 50s across the area.
High pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast will provide just enough of a pressure gradient to keep south to southwest winds will up around 5 mph and prevent any fog development.
Patchy fog/freezing fog will remain possible in the KRVS/KFSM area until shortly after sunrise. /Issued 348 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019/ Clear skies and light/calm winds have led to some freezing fog development across parts of the forecast area this morning. Will go with a patchy freezing fog mention this morning for the AR river valley locations. After a cool start, warmer temperatures are expected for today, with mild temperatures continuing for the next several days.
544 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 Considering model performance from yesterday, I increased high temperatures today to near 60 to the lower 60s, and will be the warmest day of the entire forecast. A cold front should arrive late enough tonight to keep lows from going much below lower 30s. Cold air advection will keep Monday highs near 50 to the lower 50s, but still not bad for this time of year.
630 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 A cold front will sweep offshore this morning. High pressure will follow the front bringing breezy and mild conditions today. Weak high pressure will then be over the region through midweek. Clear and calm conditions are expected under high pressure tonight. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
315 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2019 Expect periods of cloudiness at times across the CWA today along with isolated to widely scattered rain showers as a cold front passes through. Look for a downward trend in temperatures through the midweek as a deepening trough over the western U.
Temperatures today may be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as the area experiences rising heights and a fairly calm wind.
More atmospheric lift develops with a secondary trough early Tue morning and weakens Tue afternoon and Tue night.
/issued 521 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019/ WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and a closed upper low sitting well off the west coast. Around 00Z Mon, and trough will dive out of the PacNW, and dig to the Four Corners by 12Z Tue. Winds will begin increasing thru the Guadalupe/Delaware Mtns beginning Mon afternoon, w/the NAM developing a corresponding strong mtn wave signature that will peak midday Tue as the trough passes north. In the wake of the trough, a Pac front will cool things down ~5F Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, a large, secondary trough is forecast to develop over the PacNW, as the trough off the Baja coast opens and ejects NE thru Mexico into West Texas/SE NM. Models hint at a front/cooler temps over the weekend, but are pretty divergent on solutions attm.
Tranquil weather across the region will come to an end Monday as a fast moving dry cold front sweeps across southern Nevada and surrounding areas bringing gusty north winds.
Lows tonight will fall into the mid 30s across isolated areas in the far northern portion of the CWA to the low 40s along the coast, below normal for this time of year.
Ebert Previous discussion: Expect periods of cloudiness at times across the CWA today along with isolated to widely scattered rain showers as a cold front passes through. Look for a downward trend in temperatures through the midweek as a deepening trough over the western U.
/issued 1057 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019/ Temperatures are on pace to reach seasonal averages for highs this afternoon in the lower to mid 60s. Aside from some occasional cirrus, expect mostly sunny skies with winds becoming S/SW as high pressure at the surface shifts east of the region.
Light rain and snow showers will spread across higher elevations this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW. Improved mixing expected today as a cold front approaches from the NW.
The cold front and all associated precipitation has now exited the region. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs struggling to reach the low 60s for much of the region.
Overall tonight a cold front will move through the region switching the winds to the north to northwest and skies will remain mostly clear. Monday should be cooler with north to northeast winds all day.
1042 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 A weak cold front is currently moving south past a Naples-Palm Beach line.
1136 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 High pressure along with dry weather and near normal temperatures are expected through early in the week.
237 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 High pressure along with dry weather and near normal temperatures are expected through early in the week.
1023 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 Dry and near normal temperature is expected until a strong low pressure system brings rain and windy conditions for mid to late week.
/issued 1026 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019/ High pressure at sfc and aloft will continue through today as temperatures warm into the mid 60s most locations. This pattern will continue into tomorrow as high pressure at sfc drifts off to the east. Overnight lows tonight to continue their warming trend with lows Monday morning in the low 40s for the lakes region in southeast Texas and central Louisiana. High pressure over central Texas will shift to the Mississippi Valley through early Monday.
154 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2019 20z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into central SD and cold front into south central MT. Tonight, cold front moves through the CWA with limited moisture.
330 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 High pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the southwest this evening, transversing the southeastern US states through midweek.
VFR conditions expected at all sites through this forecast period ahead short wave trough that will translate rapidly from offshore Pacific NW into the swrn CONUS today and Monday. The exception is in the valleys of sern OK and west central AR where fog/freezing fog occurred this morning.
220 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 High pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the southwest this evening, transversing the southeastern US states through midweek.
Some intermittent wind gusts are possible, especially at the higher terrain terminals. Some patchy fog and freezing fog will remains possible this morning. patchy freezing fog. Given how spotty this dense and freezing fog is. high pressure to the SW will move east by this afternoon. These SRLY winds combined with a sunny sky will allow for temps to get warmer than seen on Sat.
1219 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 Dry and near normal temperature is expected until a strong low pressure system brings rain and windy conditions for mid to late week.
The exception is in the valleys of sern OK and west central AR where fog/freezing fog occurred this morning.
The low levels are dry, which will limit how much rain is able to reach the ground. The 12-18 UTC guidance suites suggest a very confined area of 2-5 inches on the higher terrain, rapidly decreasing at lower elevations. Did increase winds for the overnight into Monday morning towards the higher edge of the statistical guidance given steep low level lapse rates and cold air advection remaining through the night behind the cold front of the clipper, with around 40kts at the top of the mixed layer, and some isallobaric push as well.
With the high continuing to shift east, winds have returned out of the south. Even warmer tomorrow as we get into the week, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.
1026 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 High pressure at sfc and aloft will continue through today as temperatures warm into the mid 60s most locations. This pattern will continue into tomorrow as high pressure at sfc drifts off to the east. Overnight lows tonight to continue their warming trend with lows Monday morning in the low 40s for the lakes region in southeast Texas and central Louisiana. High pressure over central Texas will shift to the Mississippi Valley through early Monday.
Temperatures tonight are expected to drop down into the upper 30s and lower 40s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 40s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.
Considering model performance from yesterday, I increased high temperatures today to near 60 to the lower 60s, and will be the warmest day of the entire forecast. A cold front should arrive late enough tonight to keep lows from going much below lower 30s. Cold air advection will keep Monday highs near 50 to the lower 50s, but still not bad for this time of year.
1240 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 High pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the southwest this evening, transversing the southeastern US states through midweek.
Weak cold front moves into northern portions of the fcst area tomorrow with only minor cooling in its wake.
High pressure will begin to exit the region tomorrow evening and an unsettled, wet pattern is expected for much of the week.
439 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 It has been a very quiet weather pattern today as high pressure at sfc and aloft remained in control.
606 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2019 The High Wind warning and Wind Advisory products were allowed to expire.
355 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 A weakening and dry cold front will drop southeastward into our forecast area on Monday as an upper level trough moves eastward into the Great Lakes region with little impact on our weather expect for a wind shift.
Snow finally tapers off Monday night as the low ejects to the east.
Model data is indicating that valley fog is possible in the lower Ark River valley, much like what occurred last night. Weak cold front moves into northern portions of the fcst area tomorrow with only minor cooling in its wake.
429 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2019 20z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into central SD and cold front into south central MT. Tonight, cold front moves through the CWA with limited moisture.
703 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 A few showers associated with the passage of a cold front still linger in the vicinity of FLL, FXE and OPF. A cold front has been moving through the region today, with scattered showers along and ahead of the front. Behind the front winds will become northwest, which will allow for cooler and drier air to filter down the peninsula into South Florida. Cooler and drier air continues to filter in behind the front on Monday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s Monday afternoon.
Cooler and drier airmass behind the front will keep clear/mostly clear skies across the area, with temperatures becoming chilly overnight under favorable radiational cooling conditions. High pressure to the northwest will keep a relatively light NW flow around 5-10 knots across the waters tonight, with seas 2-4 feet.
515 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 A weakening and dry cold front will drop southeastward into our forecast area on Monday as an upper level trough moves eastward into the Great Lakes region with little impact on our weather expect for a wind shift.
Examination of the numerical guidance reveals that the 00z temp is a bit cooler than predicted at CSV. Dewpoints are in the lower 30s so readings should begin to level off through the night. Sfc ridging influences with dry zonal flow aloft will provide generally VFR/SKC conditions thru 25/24Z.
/issued 703 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019/ A few showers associated with the passage of a cold front still linger in the vicinity of FLL, FXE and OPF. A cold front has been moving through the region today, with scattered showers along and ahead of the front. Behind the front winds will become northwest, which will allow for cooler and drier air to filter down the peninsula into South Florida. Cooler and drier air continues to filter in behind the front on Monday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s Monday afternoon.
845 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 High pressure continues to shift east this evening. Winds may begin to pick up from the south during the overnight hours as the high pushes further east. High pressure will begin to exit the region tomorrow evening and an unsettled, wet pattern is expected for much of the week.
300 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2019 2pm update: Showers developed across the region behind the cold front this afternoon, as the lower clouds dropped south from Alberta. Wind gusts strong enough to expand the High Wind Warning eastward across Fort Peck Lake toward Glendive. Ebert Previous discussion: Expect periods of cloudiness at times across the CWA today along with isolated to widely scattered rain showers as a cold front passes through. Look for a downward trend in temperatures through the midweek as a deepening trough over the western U.
641 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2019 As the cold front crosses the CWA this evening, northwest winds have been gusting around 40 to 50 kts across parts of NW SD at times. 20z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into central SD and cold front into south central MT. Tonight, cold front moves through the CWA with limited moisture.
Precip type over the north remains to be a little tricky, but models trended toward a rain/snow mix, with drizzle/freezing drizzle less likely but still a small possibility.
/issued 439 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019/ It has been a very quiet weather pattern today as high pressure at sfc and aloft remained in control.
/issued 845 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019/ High pressure continues to shift east this evening. Winds may begin to pick up from the south during the overnight hours as the high pushes further east. High pressure will begin to exit the region tomorrow evening and an unsettled, wet pattern is expected for much of the week.
An orphaned cold front is dissipating across the Keys this evening. A cold front will continue to dissipate across the Keys overnight.
/issued 706 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019/ Cool, mostly clear night ahead as dry air continues to filter into the region behind a cold front over the southern peninsula. Light north to northwest winds will persist into Monday, with overnight lows ranging from around 40 across parts of the Nature Coast to the lower 50s down south. Immediate coastal locations will remain a few degrees warmer, mostly in the mid 50s.
This will quickly High pressure will continue to build in, with dry, cool, and overall pleasant conditions throughout the day.
Examination of the numerical guidance reveals that the 00z temp is a bit cooler than predicted at CSV. Dewpoints are in the lower 30s so readings should begin to level off through the night. Sfc ridging influences with dry zonal flow aloft will provide generally VFR/SKC conditions thru 26/06Z.
CAM guidance suggests a few waves of heavier rain will move through today, with the best chances moving through the area from west to east from mid morning through the mid afternoon hours just ahead of the upper trough axis.
500mb upper low is expected to track from Montana to western SD today and as it does WAA will spread east into the central Dakotas with light snow gradually approaching eastern ND. Temps today will be cooler than over the weekend with more clouds especially in the south and NE winds developing.
Will still see some potential for precip this morning into the early afternoon hrs before a cold front pushes east through the area. with a cold front pushing ESE through the state. Cooler and calmer conditions will be seen for Mon night through Tue behind this front. a new upper trough will dive SE over AR Tue night. Moisture levels look very limited with little to no moisture return ahead of this new upper trough. do think some light precip could be seen as this trough moves overhead.
Ahead of this low, expect continued rain within the WAA wing of the system. As the upper trof approaches, models suggest a dry slot will move into at least the southern half or so of the CWA. Warmer air will move into the region today as the system approaches the region with cooler temps moving in behind the system on Tues. Tilly Upper trof continues to move thru the region on Tues night into Wed. Cooler air is expected to remain in place the rest of the week with NW flow aloft. Tilly VFR conditions continue to prevail ahead of the approaching low pressure system and associated rain that has entered the region and started to impact KCOU. Surface winds will back to the east as the low pressure system moves through the region Monday afternoon and evening.
Tonight into early Tuesday morning, a cold front will push through the terminals swinging the wind to the north and increasing speed once again into the 15 to 25 kt range. /issued 304 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ Low pressure has now moved into north central Oklahoma early this morning however a tight pressure gradient remains in place over our area. Tonight, a stronger cold front will move into the region and usher in a much colder air mass. Tuesday afternoon surface ridging will begin to develop/move into our forecast area tightening the pressure gradient yet again across the area leading to breezy northerly winds of 20-30 mph Tuesday afternoon.
533 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Area of light to moderate rainfall will continue to pinwheel around the upper low as it moves from south central across southeast Kansas this morning. Otherwise, another energetic upper trof will dig southeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains today and tonight with a closed low evolving across the lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday morning. Deeper cold advection under the associated trof will steepen lapse rates by the afternoon where sufficient moisture/lift and weak instability should result in scattered rain to snow showers.
Ahead of this low, expect continued rain within the WAA wing of the system. As the upper trof approaches, models suggest a dry slot will move into at least the southern half or so of the CWA. Warmer air will move into the region today as the system approaches the region with cooler temps moving in behind the system on Tues. Tilly Upper trof continues to move thru the region on Tues night into Wed. Cooler air is expected to remain in place the rest of the week with NW flow aloft.
303 AM PST Mon Feb 24 2020 Lighter winds return today and persist through much of the week as high pressure settles into northeast California and western Nevada. Low pressure may impact the region this weekend with gusty winds along with rain and snow showers. Winds are on the decline with only ridges holding onto some moderate gusts. Ridge winds will drastically lessen by this evening into Tuesday as high pressure builds across the region.
Lift across a warm front to our south should help support continued development. a strong upper low will move across the mid MS Valley today into the OH Valley overnight. This will bring a surface cold front into north GA late tonight. and as the warm front drifts northward. Models are consistent with showing the cold front drifting into northwest GA and then stalling across central GA by Tuesday afternoon.
540 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Rain working up from the south was finally able to overcome dry air in the lower levels late last night. Light to moderate rain then gradually spread northward into the southern half of the CWA overnight, and as of early this morning has progressed as far north as the Highway 36 corridor. If temperatures can drop several more degrees over northern Missouri this morning, light rain could change over to light snow or a rain-snow mix briefly before temperatures climb back above freezing later this morning.
515 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Quiet over the area early this morning with just some increasing cirrus ahead of low pressure over the Southern Plains. Today we'll see a continued increase in cirrus north of the Southern Plains low pressure system as it chugs through southern MO.
Meanwhile, surface analysis this morning shows a low situated over Oklahoma with a cold front trailing down through central Texas. Precipitation will continue as the aforementioned cold front moves into the area later this morning. Precipitation will then come to an end by this afternoon from west to east as the cold front moves through the area. Temperatures for today will range from the lower 60s across our northwest zones to the lower 70s across our southeast zones. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday as another cold front will move through the area early in the day, leading to highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
High temperatures should remain mild ahead of the CAA, especially over the southern half of the forecast area, with highs dropping 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure building in from the west will allow clearing skies Tuesday night, along with cold overnight low temperatures.
(Today and tonight) A deep surface cyclone was centered between Alva and Enid early this morning. The low pressure area will continue drifting slowly east this morning. Ahead of the low, a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility early this morning.
In fact, current consensus guidance, backed by ensemble means, supports highs across much of NE Montana in the upper 30s to mid 40s for the upcoming weekend with dry weather conditions as well for now as upper ridging drives rising heights and large scale subsidence over the western U.
Today through Tuesday night Large scale patter n consisting of an upper low and surface reflection pushing eastward along the KS/OK border.
Cold front will move north to south through all terminals between 03-09z with wind shift out of north-northwest expected. Today will be pleasant with highs in the 60s and 70s before an upper low develops in the Central Plains sending a cold front into the CWA Tuesday.
An expansive area of high pressure over the Southeast United States will slide into the western Atlantic Ocean by tonight, with an extensive ridge axis reaching well across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.
Expect this shield of rain to eventually push E/NE later this morning into the early afternoon as a warm front gradually lifts northeast. Quality of the narrow warm sector this afternoon will be relatively poor with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and temps in the lower to mid 60s at best. As typical this time of year the shear is quite strong with 0-6km bulk shear amounts greater than 60 kts and 0-1km helicity values of 200 m2/s2 directly in advance of the cold front along with some some low level veering. The upper low pushing into the region will be rapidly weakening and lifting NE so large scale lift will be weakening this afternoon but not before a broken line of convection forms along the cold front around 2-3pm this afternoon moving across the Mid-South and exiting by 10pm.
the afternoon will warm back into the lower to middle 70s under light veering post-frontal breezes to the northwest. The strong cold front will be racing through the coastal waters Tuesday evening, and strong high pressure will begin building into Southeast Texas from the northwest.
316 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 A well-developed mid-latitude cyclone is located over the central Plains early this morning. One area that still does have a chance of snow is southwest of the Minnesota River, specifically the Buffalo Ridge.
358 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Rain working up from the south was finally able to overcome dry air in the lower levels late last night. Light to moderate rain then gradually spread northward into the southern half of the CWA overnight, and as of early this morning has progressed as far north as the Highway 36 corridor. If temperatures can drop several more degrees over northern Missouri this morning, light rain could change over to light snow or a rain-snow mix briefly before temperatures climb back above freezing later this morning.
with a cold front pushing ESE through the state. Cooler and calmer conditions will be seen for Mon night through Tue behind this front. a new upper trough will dive SE over AR Tue night. Moisture levels look very limited with little to no moisture return ahead of this new upper trough. do think some light precip could be seen as this trough moves overhead.