Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1008 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS HIGH GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRATUS DECK WILL BEGIN TO LOWER EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MID/LATE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AND HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER SHORT TERM HIRES GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND HIGHS. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A BIT COOLER THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE.
253 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE EAST OF THE GASPE PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTH.
446 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE VICINITY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO DO NOT EXPECT ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS BECAUSE THE ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
320 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SQUARELY INTO THE REGION.
PALMER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NE CO AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENN/LOWER MISS VALLEYS. SSE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A RESULT WHICH WILL KEEP THE HIGH FIRE DANGER IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A CHECK OF 15-16Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THAT DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING DOWN BELOW FCST VALUES DESPITE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SOME 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN FCST.
Likewise, temperatures will range from the lower 40s deeper in the clouds/cold air in NE MO to the middle 50s over the SW.
COOLER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY. IN BETWEEN THE MAIN DISTURBANCE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE CWA STARTS THE PERIOD OFF SITTING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. BUT LOOK TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THAT TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE OF THE DRIVING FORCE. FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE TO END THE WORK WEEK AS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS A FACTOR.
1242 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BY MID THU MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF MSN-MKE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS SRN WI TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THESE AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUDS MOVE INTO NW AL AFTER 3 PM AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. UPPER TROF AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS GA ATTM WITH WRAP ARND MVFR CEILINGS AS FAR WEST AS KHSV.
325 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1046 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
Believe this trend will maintain itself through mid-afternoon with some of this cloudiness working into e MO and parts of s IL, although with a fairly pronounced westerly component to the low level flow think the bulk of the clouds will remain northeast of STL metro. Today's highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a few degrees cooler. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and a relatively dry air mass in the wake of yesterday's cold front will promote good radiational cooling conditions tonight and early tomorrow morning. Overnight lows in the 30s still look reasonable, and sheltered locations in the eastern Ozarks could briefly drop below freezing.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ELONGATED TROUGH PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR A KSLC-KSGU LINE. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL TEND TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE DAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MAXES 5-10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SO SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN UTAH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB EARLY INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. AS EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO NW ALABAMA ALONG AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AS THE STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE CWA DRY.
1241 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. 850 MILLIBAR JET MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MINIMUM IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TEXAS THIS MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
Today's highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a few degrees cooler. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and a relatively dry air mass in the wake of yesterday's cold front will promote good radiational cooling conditions tonight and early tomorrow morning. Overnight lows in the 30s still look reasonable, and sheltered locations in the eastern Ozarks could briefly drop below freezing.
The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front from east TN through southeast LA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed an approaching southern stream short wave trough over the central Gulf Coast region. There appears to be enough of a tongue of deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing to generate a narrow band of scattered showers ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
As the upper trough approaches, increasing strong upper level divergence will provide plenty of lift above the warm front. Expect rapid moisture return in the form of clouds and strong south to southeast winds this afternoon as the potent upper trough approaches the region. Some of these storms should become elevated above the surface warm front and a few could produce marginal hail. South of the warm front, could see isolated surface based storms produce marginal size severe hail and damaging winds.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
742 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BY MID-MORNING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND HALLOWEEN.
652 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 422 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S/SWRD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING JUST BEFORE THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MILD LATE OCTOBER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
725 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION ALREADY ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTER A SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY.
THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND CEILINGS SHOULD DROP FURTHER INTO IFR CATEGORIES A FEW HOURS LATER.
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NEAR THIS OH RIVER WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WARM FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK NORTH. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND CEILINGS SHOULD DROP FURTHER INTO IFR CATEGORIES A FEW HOURS LATER.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U. FIRST OF THE HIGH LEVEL VARIETY IN ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CA COAST. FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A BAND OF CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT THAT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
A weak upper level ridge will move across the Plains today into tonight with a strengthening upper level low moving into the Four Corner's region. At the surface, a cold front that moved through early this morning will continue to slide southward through the Southern Plains with high pressure building across the Central Plains. The ridge axis of this area of high pressure will quickly move east of the area by this afternoon shifting northeasterly winds to more of an easterly direction by noon, then to more of a southerly direction by this evening into the overnight hours. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the mid 50s with lows tonight dipping to around 40 degrees and the lower 40s.
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY. /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN TX PNHDL AS OF THIS WRITING WILL CONTINUE MOVG SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SWRN STATES. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS NM AND INTO WRN TX. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL LOW THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS DISSIPATED BUT SHOWERS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. AND SHOW THE SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. WHAT STARTED OUT PROMISING FOR RAIN HAS FIZZLED AND THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
AND FRIDAY CENTER OF PRONOUNCED UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC CANADA BY THIS EVENING AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE.
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRI AND SAT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST US WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
1025 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
935 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW.
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH 3 AM READING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.
1144 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY.
VFR wx will prevail thru the day in advance of another upper level trough. /issued 428 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ An upper trough is currently over the western conus and is expected to deepen and move eastward during the day. Temperatures will be warmer this afternoon compared with yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s. As this upper trough begins to move over the region, rain and storm chances will spread eastward and significantly increase tonight into Friday morning.
Rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep the region dry and cooler through Friday.
UPPER- LEVEL TROF BRINGING THE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE DIFFUSE CONCENTRATION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANYING THE TROF, IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY, SO HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6PM.
LOW CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOWS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
1150 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND MIDDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA FRIDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. WARMER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW MANY AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S BEFORE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. 850 MILLIBAR JET MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE NOTICEABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST US WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED A BAND OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL GET UNDERWAY TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES FROM THE WEST. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN KICKING OUT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS JET ENERGY ROUNDS BASE OF TROF AND PULLS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
High pressure will build into the Midwest tonight, providing clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 30s.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
633 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 A LARGE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A RIDGE BEGAN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SURGE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS OF 08Z TODAY LOWS HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HOWEVER TEMPS COULD QUICKLY FALL NEAR FREEZING UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
Otherwise, things should be pretty quiet and mostly clear for the remainder of the early morning as cooler air filters in. Upper trough will quickly lift out of the Great Lakes today, with a progressive upper ridge axis translating East across the CONUS and over our CWA by Friday afternoon. This pattern will result in dry conditions with overall cooler temps. A few of the cool spots may dip into the lower 30s.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SYSTEM QUICKLY PUSHES EAST WITH WARMER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
High pressure will move into the region tonight, with another night of similar temperatures in the lower to middle 30s and a subsequent potential of frost formation. High pressure will move off to the east on Friday in advance of an approaching elongated positively-tilted trough, with southerly winds and moisture returning.
1107 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
A cold front has moved into southeast Oklahoma late this morning and will continue to push southward during the day. Temperatures north of the front are running some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than at this same time yesterday. A few areas of light fog remain ahead of the next cold front which is currently near Interstate 40. /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ Cold front presently entering northeast Oklahoma will bring much lower dew points to at least the northern half of the forecast area for today, and for most areas, a slightly cooler afternoon.
COLD DYNAMIC COOLING/ABUNDANT MOISTURE WRAPPING UNDER THE CLOSED LOW WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING STRATUS TO PERSIST AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT CLOUDY AS MOISTURE STARTS SURGING BACK TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
INCREASING DEEP WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST- NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE WARMING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE 9AM MDT/10AM CDT. THE NAM AND GFS APPEARED TO BE DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S DESPITE THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH ENDED UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED. SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY. COOLED OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
Dry air subsidence continues to push southward into northeast Kansas this morning behind the expansive upper low lifting over Lake Michigan. For tonight, a mid level trough deepens over the inter-mountain west, gradually phasing with a northern stream wave as it pushes eastward towards the CWA Friday. Increasing high clouds late Thursday evening from the approaching system may keep lows from falling to the freezing mark in the 34 to 36 degree range.
850 MB THERMAL TROF FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY EVENING.
839 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The weak upper level low that aided in the development of shower and thunderstorms activity yesterday afternoon is located across the Texas Hill Country. Highs today will be slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday, generally in the low to mid 90s.
652 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY. THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PARKED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE CURRENT RADAR DATA INDICATES NO PRECIP IN/NEAR OUR AREA WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SUNRISE SURPRISE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AS IT SPINS ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN IL (WHICH SEEMS TO BE A TREND HINTED AT BY MUCH OF THE HI- RES GUIDANCE).