Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 1050 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016/ Current forecast continues to be in good shape as it highlights well the cooler temps within the wedge due to increased cloud cover. /issued 734 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016/ Short range models in good agreement with upper level short wave currently moving across the lower MS Valley drifting east and across the forecast area today. This upper disturbance will overrun a cool surface wedge of high pressure nosing in from the northeast and bring mostly cloudy conditions to the forecast area today. The clouds and cool easterly wind flow will warrant leaning toward the cooler side of guidance for highs today. mainly in the lower to mid 70s behind the wedge front.
334 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Southwest flow aloft persists across our region tonight and Sunday as a large-scale upper level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest continues to deepen. At the surface, a low pressure center is progged to develop in the lee of the Rockies over southern Alberta and Manitoba by Sunday morning.
A couple of upper-level vort centers are moving slowly across the lower Mississippi Valley, and have managed to sling plenty of mostly mid-level clouds into the Ohio Valley, but as has been the case for a couple weeks now, precious little in the way of precipitation. Max temps will be substantially warmer than the last couple of days, with most locations just touching 80, but this is just the beginning of an impressive warming trend. By Sunday upper ridging starts to build from Texas, and SW low-level flow will be well entrenched, keeping conditions dry and allowing highs to climb a couple degrees higher each day.
Surface ridging extending from the eastern CONUS to the Central Gulf Coast has otherwise resulted in light east to southeast flow over our region. Afternoon temperatures generally range in the upper 70s to lower 80s over the eastern part of the area, a little cooler than anticipated due to thicker mid level cloud cover. A northwesterly mid level flow pattern will set up across the forecast area Sunday in the wake of the departing trough axis. Highs Sunday will range in the lower to mid 80s.
Winds will decouple tonight and weak SFC ridging will slide across the FA. Will maintain the highest chances over northwest Minnesota Sunday evening where PWATs are expected to rise to around an inch.
Temperatures will stay quite mild tonight for mid-October, likely only falling to the low 60s. There does seem to be a better potential for a few afternoon cloud breaks than today, but not expecting much sun so kept temps away from the warmer end of guidance.
301 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016 Winds this afternoon have generally been higher across the Rolling Plains and eastward as the surface trof axis extends from south- central KS southward through western OK into the Big Country. Winds are expected to remain around the 10-15 mph range across our eastern zones through midnight as the surface pressure gradient stays tight along the trof axis. After a decrease in wind speeds after midnight through the morning hours, winds are expected to increase once again tomorrow afternoon to 15-20 mph due to the tightening surface gradient associated with another lee trof. The high for Lubbock tomorrow, 90F, is within 2 degrees of the record high of 92 degrees. Despite the warm temps observed today, temps overnight will be cooler than observed this morning due to lower dewpoints and no expected low level stratus.
252 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level trough will push east, from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Monday. 2" PWAT airmass in place east of the baggy trough approaching slowly from the west will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Additionally, given the high moisture content, localized flooding will also be possible. Despite dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, convective cloud formation and subsequent showers/storms should temper and lessen the heat, with heat indices in the 95-100 range, except 100-103 in the Coastal Plain. PW values in excess of 2 inches, dew points in the lower to mid 70s, and low level convergence along the trough will support numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening.
Early afternoon surface dew point values remain in the low 60s to low 70s. CAMs are very hesitant to bring convection into the lower elevations. Heading into Monday, potential for an active day remains as very moist airmass remains entrenched and inverted trough over northern Mexico starts migrating north.
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): As expected, mid-level ridging has been building into the region from the east over the past 24 hours.
A weak ridge will bring dry and slightly warmer weather on Monday.
This departure of the recent parade of weak disturbances through our region is coming in concert with the subtropical ridge building back overhead through the next 24 to 36 hours. Despite the upper level ridge building back overhead through the short term, rainfall is expected to remain at above average levels (for early August), especially in the eastern half of zones. There is a chance the "dirty" side of the ridge setting up close enough to the MS/AL border through midweek may allow some storm clusters of not an entirely diurnally-driven nature to brush south near/through eastern zones, and this is something we will have to keep an eye on.
102 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A weak upper level trough moves east of the area tonight. Drier with upper level ridging into midweek. A weak upper level trough will continue to move east tonight.
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level trough will push east, from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Monday. 2" PWAT airmass in place east of the baggy trough approaching slowly from the west will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Additionally, given the high moisture content, localized flooding will also be possible. Lows overnight in the lower to mid 70s. Mid/upper level trough will move slowly east-southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States late Monday.
209 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Low pressure slowly approaches from the Ohio Valley today. This low slowly tracks along a frontal boundary that becomes nearly stationary near the Tri-State Area with waves of low pressure tracking along it through Monday night.
630 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A weak area of low pressure extended from central Pennsylvania to central Ohio. The low will drift east and be over to the Mid- Atlantic coast on Monday.
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A weak upper level trough moves east of the area tonight. Drier with upper level ridging into midweek. A weak upper level trough will continue to move east tonight.
103 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Convection has blossomed within the last several hours across north central KS to the north of the retreating warm front within a region of good WAA/MCON associated with a southwesterly LLJ, and in advance of a weak disturbance aloft. Glass It still appears that the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will occur later tonight into Monday attendant with the slow east/northeast lifting warm front, a broad region of WAA/MCON associated with west-southwesterly low-level flow, and a weak disturbance aloft. This broad zone favoring showers and thunderstorms will then continue to shift across eastern MO and into western IL on Monday in response to the building ridge aloft, northwesterly steering flow, and a west-southwest LLJ.
410 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 The forecast message remains largely unchanged as the center of an upper ridge slowly relocates further east. Even as this ridge moves across the area, precip chances will persist.
As the day progresses, instability levels will increase but appears that capping inversion will hold things in check over the lower elevations. Generally speaking, hi-res CAMs are showing roughly the same idea that convection develops well upstream then tries to move into the lower elevations much later this evening. Should Rim storms propagate off the mountains, the gravity-driven outflow would show preference to chew into the moisture gradient and move into the lower elevations.
1114 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Current surface map shows weak low across Montana, with trof extending into Wyoming. Surface trof moves into western Dakotas this afternoon. Moisture pooling east of the trof will result in MLCAPE of 2000-3000J/KG. Surface trof/cold front slides through western South Dakota Monday morning and is located over south central South Dakota Monday afternoon.
341 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Corrected headline on aviation section The upper level trough passing through today will push eastward through the Continental Divide tonight. High pressure amplitude will rebound on Monday as the next low pressure system strengthens over the Pacific NW and allows high pressure to dominate for a couple of days. As high pressure amplifies over the region, drier air will advect into northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado.
Not much change in the forecast this afternoon as high pressure will still be the dominate feature through the week. Temperatures should continue to be in the low to mid 90s through the week. Latest guidance suggests that it will form into a tropical system over the next few days, but the high pressure over the eastern United States should keep it well south of the United States. A broad ridge of high pressure will remain over the coastal waters through the end of the week.
Despite some cloud cover in place, don't think it will be enough to keep temps down and so have maintained low 80s highs with slightly cooler temps near the lake with onshore flow.
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A broad area of low pressure in place across northern Ohio will slowly shift east into Pennsylvania tonight.
247 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016 An area of weak low pressure will track eastward across the area tonight and Monday. A weak cold front will move southeastward late Monday as the low moves offshore. High pressure will build in from the north during the middle of the week. Therefore, the focus for scattered PoPs will be east of the Blue Ridge.
Convection has developed on the east coast sea breeze just inland from the Treasure coast with additional scattered storms expected to develop into the interior into early evening as an inverted mid level trough moves northwest. SE low level flow coninues around the Atlantic ridge with some deep layer drying affect north coastal sections.
1059 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2016 There will be less wind today and temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 80s.
306 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into northern Kansas.
Highs will reach the low 80s today and the mid 80s on Monday. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.
103 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 31/00z upper-air analysis indicate a trough over western Canada, downstream ridging over the northern High Plains and a broad, low-amplitude trough over the Great Lakes into mid Mississippi Valley.
Mid-level high pressure and associated subsidence will dominate the flying area over the next 24 hours. a 500 mb ridge axis is expected to build steadily westward later today and tonight which will likely result in a more stable and drier airmass in place over the RGV. /issued 428 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500 mb ridging will continue to build over the RGV from the Gulf of Mexico throughout today and Monday. For temps will go close to persistence on through today and Monday as the 500 mb ridging strengthens over the area.
Storms developing along a north-south surface trof separating significantly drier air from plains moisture. Expect this to be a short lived watch as surface trof is progged to move east of the area by 4 pm or so. but prog trends suggest the highest potential for a severe threat is east of the stateline in the Dakotas. Cold front is progged to move through Billings around 900 pm, and the remainder of the region overnight shifting winds from westerly to northerly for several hours. Weak return flow on Monday will mean cooler temps and less instability with a better capped environment.
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Different day but same challenges this cycle as forecast area remains in unstable atmosphere under weak/flat mid level ridging. Dominant player will continue to be broad expansive mid/upper level ridge of high pressure that stretches across most of the southern Conus. An upper trough is progged to move into the western states as far east as the 4 Corners by Thur and Fri.
Weak troughing aloft will be conducive to a few showers and thunderstorms over the area today.
1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A strong low level jet of 35-40kts has intensified a warm frontal boundary over central Kansas leading to the formation of an MCS. High resolution models such as HRRR and RAP indicate these storms will start to dissipate as the low level jet weakens late in the morning with surface heating. This low increases the pressure gradient over the Great Plains and intensifies convergence along the boundary over NE Missouri as it interacts with the high pressure over the Great Lakes. Once the low level jet intensifies Sunday night another potential MCS is expected to form over NE Missouri and Iowa. The low level jet that forms over KS and MO Sunday night will also bring strong warm air advection over the region with an increase of 6C at 850hPa by 12z Monday morning.
340 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016 The upper level trough passing through today will push eastward through the Continental Divide tonight. High pressure amplitude will rebound on Monday as the next low pressure system strengthens over the Pacific NW and allows high pressure to dominate for a couple of days. As high pressure amplifies over the region, drier air will advect into northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado.
The upper level ridge will continue to influence the area through the period. Therefore, have inserted a TEMPO at KCNU for the lower ceilings.
158 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016 19z surface analysis had low over eastern MT with warm front into western NE, dry-line into central WY, and another frontal boundary into southwest MT. 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE is developing ahead of warm front with 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE between dry-line and warm front. Upper ridge peaking over the CWA, and then heading east by this evening. Conditions will be slightly cooler in the west and muggy in the east with heat advisory possible depending on how high dew points end up. Monday night, weak high pressure brings quieter weather with pleasant temperatures.
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain across the region tonight. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in a dry night tonight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the far north but in the mid 50s to around 60 central and downeast.
317 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Area finally precip free after MCS moved through overnight and this morning, with additional back-end development occurring as warm air advection continues in the low to mid levels. Temps rising quickly where skies have cleared, and dewpoints in the lower 70s helping contribute to RAP analysis of 2000-3000 J/kg of ML CAPE in southwestern areas, significant CIN was also indicated, and latest visible satellite and radar reflectivity support a still stable boundary layer. If dewpoints are on the higher end of guidance and temps in the middle, and convection remains away, most of the area should see heat index values around 105 at least briefly, but am not quite confident in all these factors for an Advisory.
345 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will keep unsettled weather over the area into the first part of the work week with clouds and scattered showers, especially east of Interstate 81. Upr trof still over NY and PA on Mon with another weak wv swinging thru. Once again, best chance for pcpn will be along and east of I81 where the trof deepens and terrain helps fgenerate a bit of lift. Upper trof deepens over xtrm ern NY Mon ngt and Tue but by then rdgg is beginning to bld at H* and the sfc over wrn NY so that by Tue mrng, really only chance for shwrs will be in the mrng and over the east with drier air mvg in the west.
439 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic will continue to be the dominant feature in the Florida peninsula's weather this week.
207 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 At 2 pm temps were in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints mainly in the low 70s.
329 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016 Chances for precipitation will increase over the entire area tonight and especially on Monday as a slow moving low pressure system moves into the region.
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 (Tonight and Monday) Broad ridging aloft extends from the southwestern states to the Gulf Coast states. The ridge aloft is forecast to build slightly over our area on Monday. Highs on Monday will be similar to today, perhaps a degree warmer.
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain across the region tonight. Orgnl Disc: High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in a dry night tonight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the far north but in the mid 50s to around 60 central and downeast.
Little change can be expected over the next several days, with typical cool temperatures along the coast and slightly warmer than normal temperatures inland. To the delight of many, afternoon temperatures across the interior have been about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time, and this is thanks to a slight weakening of the upper level ridge aloft.
307 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Temperatures throughout the Mid-South vary quite a bit this evening with sites in Northwest Mississippi that have been impacted by cloud cover and earlier rainfall reporting readings in the lower 80's while all other sites throughout the Mid- South report near or just below normal readings. The NAM, Euro, and GFS agree on one more weak impulse embedded in northwest flow affecting the region as a subtropical ridge begins to build over the Mid-South tomorrow. Tomorrow will also be a few degrees warmer than today and heat indices could reach the lower 100's in areas not impacted by thunderstorms.
336 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A weak area of low pressure over the region will drift to the middle Atlantic coast monday.
215 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A ridge of high pressure continues to bring hot temperatures through the weekend.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs on Monday in the low to mid 80s.
This convection should continue to develop and spread in a northwest to southeast fashion across the forecast area as the low level jet veers. The upper level ridge begins to build in earnest today. The upper level ridge builds into the region. Therefore, have inserted a TEMPO at KCNU for the lower ceilings.
A medium-wave trough over Western Canada will trek towards Hudson Bay during the short-term period.
Unsettled weather possible again Monday afternoon with trough still in set up over the region.
The first is the thermal trough along the coast that will drive gusty north winds again tonight over the coastal range of Curry County. On Monday a low pressure will approach Vancouver Island. This low will move inland over Washington State but the trough is deep enough to help bring cooler air into southern Oregon and northern California.
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Few concerns in the short term with high pressure overhead at mid afternoon. The high will drift east to the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening with a dry forecast in place. One was to go a little cooler tonight across portions of central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin, mainly north of I-94. Also, highs on monday ended up a degree or two cooler with around 80 to the lower 80s forecast.
Although thermal profiles change little for Monday, expect temperatures to be a tad warmer than today due to less cloud cover.
135 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a confluent NW flow aloft into the upr Great Lks btwn deep upr trof centered over Quebec and an upr rdg axis stretching fm the Plains into Alberta. Expect the lowest min temps falling into the 40s over the interior E, where winds wl be lightest closer to the core of the driest air/pwat near 0.
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 (Tonight and Monday) Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through tomorrow with hot and dry conditions continuing. The location of 850mb thermal ridge will remain unchanged tomorrow and as such afternoon highs will be within a degree or two of this afternoon's highs. An upper level ridge will remain centered across Texas through most of the upcoming work week, resulting in above normal temperatures.
The broad 500MB ridge stretching from MT through MN this afternoon will shift east. The apex of the ridge will be overhead around 06Z Monday, and then exit to the Great Lakes during the day Monday, with southwesterly flow returning. Much of our attention will be on the moisture surging in ahead of low pressure currently set up across eastern MT and WY.
Tonight and Monday Canadian high pressure will dominate over the region through Monday.
Not much dry air above the lower level cloudiness to help mix it out. The low level troughing will reach areas southeast of the mid state by late tonight. However, retrograde motion of the low level troughing is expected aft 12z and may spread convection back across the csv area by late in the taf pd.
A trough of low pressure at the surface is settling into the NE Gulf as high pressure continues to ridge across south FL from the Atlantic. Aloft, a weak low/trough will continue over the state with the main energy focus over the NE Gulf region as well. The upper energy and surface conditions will allow for widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to continue across mainly the Nature Coast with the highest pops near the coast and decreasing as you move inland and south from the area with scattered showers and storms elsewhere. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s to near 80 at the coast tonight, and in the lower to mid 80s north and central to the upper 80s south for Monday.
Each morning has seen slight differences in exact time and location of the low decks but later TAF issuances can try to narrow down these subtle issues. Winds should follow diurnal direction trends with the higher speeds over 12 knots confined mainly between 17z and 06z. Synoptic pattern over the US CONUS features a broad mid to upper level ridge centered over Texas with a cut-off low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge over Texas will continue to suppress much of the rain activity minus only a few isolated showers across the coastal plains today and tomorrow. The vertical compression and slightly warmer 925mb temperatures will allow for higher surface temperatures today than yesterday.
131 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 An area of high pressure will cross the region early this week, bringing comfortable weather to western and north central New York through Monday.
Inverted trough and stationary boundary should drift northward by early tomorrow morning so I went ahead and left PoP as is for tomorrow. mainly across the southern mountains as moisture creeps northward from a low pressure system across the south. Although weak upper ridging will reside over the area.
SE TX to remain between the persistent upper ridge/subsi- dence to the west and deeper moisture/lingering disturbance over the east. Instead of a deepening long-wave upper trof from the west. models are now going with a combination of an up- per trof and an associated frontal boundary from the NNW and the westward movement of that system that has been lingering in over the far NERN Gulf.
Temps are forecast to be near seasonal normals in the lower 60s. Overall, expect a little less mid-level cloud cover in the aftn and temps a degree or two warmer.
624 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A weak trough of low pressure will drop through the Tri-State Region tonight. High pressure will then build into the area Monday.