Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
112 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A cold front will move southeast across Arkansas during the day on Monday bringing light southerly winds around to the northwest. A cold front analyzed at 19z from northwest Minnesota, to northeast Nebraska will continue southward, and will reach northwest portions of the state late tonight.
A closed upper low will swing through the Upper Great Lakes today. The associated surface cold front (on the leading edge of the upper low) is approaching south central WI as of 3 am, marked by a wind shift to the WNW and a line of light rain showers. Winds will start gusting as soon as the secondary surge of cold air and another weak upper trough reach southern WI this morning. High pressure will build across the area, but clouds will probably dominate on Tuesday, clearing some Tuesday night.
High pressure will remain the dominate weather feature through the period as it shifts eastward over the Gulf of Mexico. Lows will be warmer Monday morning given the increasing moisture levels, although have slightly lowered temps across the north and west given some radiational cooling again tonight.
144 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Northwest flow is in place across the Plains, with a large scale trough over Canada and the eastern US. This has kicked a cold front south, which is now approaching the northern extent of our CWA. This afternoon-Monday: The cold front has been slower to arrive resulting in very good mixing: much lower surface Tds, higher temps, and a slower increase in northwest winds. Temp profiles may suggest a potential for freezing rain or snow across our west, but due to the coverage and light nature of the precip I am not confident we will see anything worthy of more than a mention in the HWO.
Tuesday night brings a quick change as a fast moving short wave cuts across NE Montana dragging a cold front behind it across our CWA.
Water vapor loop shows the upper low over western Ontario slowly sinking southeastward towards the Great Lakes, and that trend will continue throughout today. The upper low digging down will also bring a continued chance for light snow showers throughout today. The high resolution models have spotty snow shower activity continuing for much of the day, particularly in the northern counties. Temps should drop into the teens with clearing skies but will be offset by winds that will shift to the west overnight as the center of high pressure builds down to our south.
Cooler and very windy weather will move into our region this afternoon. A dusting of snow may occur in northern Oneida County and the higher elevations of northern Steuben County both Monday and Tuesday night.
Warmer conditions can be anticipated today. Under mostly sunny skies temperatures will warm across the region back into the lower 80s this afternoon. An inverted coastal trough will develop overnight into Tuesday as well. Low temperatures tonight will be a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than this morning, with ongoing warm air advection. Tuesday however, will peak a few degrees cooler than today as cloud cover and rain increases across South Texas.
A cold front will sweep across the area this morning as well.
/issued 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Today's warm up will be short lived as the strong, quick moving cold front is still on track for Monday morning. Forecast soundings show the GFS as a drier and warmer solution, however the NAM is more saturated and has trended much cooler.
A weak disturbance may bring a few light showers to the higher terrain of Gila County Monday night, but otherwise dry conditions will persist with little chance of rain through the end of the week. Warmer weather will return for the latter half of the week with lower elevation highs once again flirting with 90 degrees. As a result, there is excellent confidence highs Monday afternoon will be some 4F-8F cooler than today.
A cold front will move across and exit the Ozarks this morning bringing a wind shift to the northwest and another surge of cooler temperatures.
The aforementioned surface boundary will stall out this morning over northern Kansas and then lift northward as a warm front in the afternoon/overnight as lee cyclogenesis intensifies along the Front Range. On Wednesday a front will be stalled out near the NE/KS state line as the closed upper low lifts out over NM. Some of this may be associated with convection that forms in the high plains the previous afternoon or warm advection isentropic lift. The NAM and ECMWF are suggesting that convection from the high plains moves into southeast KS in the afternoon.
/Today through Tonight/ Today will be a relatively quiet day as the frontal boundary sinks into Missouri and stalls while aloft, ridging is in place.
High pressure aloft and dry northerly flow in the low levels will keep mostly sunny and warm weather going for the vast majority of our area through Wednesday. The marine layer cloudiness will deepen and expand to affect more of the coast tonight and Wednesday morning as the upper ridge axis moves east and low level flow responds by becoming more onshore.
A front will meander across the region during the next few days as areas of low pressure move along it.
1114 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017 Storms moving across southern Nebraska are being enhanced by weak low level convergence and moist axis associated with cold front laying E-W across the area. This low is pushing the ridge east and bringing continuous southern flow and moisture into the region. Come Wednesday afternoon and evening the closed low will reach the CWA and skirt to the south through the day and overnight hours. This will bring more of a rain chance to the area (especially from the evening onward), with the wrap around from the low passing right over the region.
Deep layer ridging over the northern Gulf coast will make for a quiet weather period through tonight. Deep layer ridging will remain in place through much of the day Wednesday. A passing S/W trough to the north of the area may provide a few more high clouds across SW GA Tuesday but thats about it. The ridge will begin to break down Wednesday night as a low pressure system across the High Plains begins to take aim at the southeast CONUS.
326 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 At the surface, high pressure is centered near Pensacola early this morning. Aloft, ridging extends from the Sabine River northward to northern Minnesota, with an upper low near the Mexico-Arizona border. Away from marine influences, temperatures are generally in the lower 60s at 3 am.
306 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Small MCS rolling southeastward across northern Illinois into west central Indiana, along the edge of the 850 mb warm front, where MUCAPE's were in the vicinity of 1000 J/kg at 2 am. The surface warm front is just southwest of I-74, and is not expected to make much additional progress before an area of low pressure moves southeast out of Iowa later this morning. Will need to watch the temperatures closely across the far northern CWA, as there is potential for significant high temperature adjustments if the front gets further north before the low arrives with its trailing cold front.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough over Baja, generally in line w/what models predicted 24 hours ago, leaving almost meridional flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. During the day, 40+kt 0-6km shear will be rounding the base of the trough and moving into the region, strengthening to 60-70kt after 00Z. Once the trough passes, dirty ridging moves in through the weekend.
449 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 A weak trough moves out to sea this morning. High pressure builds over the area this afternoon into tonight.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid to upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and a mid to upper level low over Baja region this morning will slowly move east through the period. The persistent low and high level cloudiness will keep high temperatures today and Wednesday near normal and the low temperatures tonight several degrees above normal.
459 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a a mid/upper level ridge from nw MN through nw Ontario between cutoff lows over Quebec and w cntrl Manitoba rsulting in nw flow through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a trough extended from cntrl Manitoba through MN into ern IA. Today,look for increasing mid clouds as the trough over MN only slowly edges to the east an area of 295k-305k isentropic lift spreads across the area. Otherise, with weak WAA and greater cloud cover temps should climb into the low to mid 50s. Tonight, although models suggest a shortave trough moving through WI late tonight could bring some light pcpn to Upper Michigan, the more consistent drier CMC/ECMWF/GFS were preferred compared to the NAM given the marginal moisture available and weak forcing.
358 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Calm winds and clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s in many locations in northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. Thus, after a cool start to the day, temperatures should rebound nicely in the lower to mid 80s by late in the afternoon.
Still very nice conditions for us with sunshine warming the air into the low to mid 80s today, just a bit above average through midweek. Little change in the pattern with ridging expanding in the plains ahead of the late week vort holding over the Northern end of the Sea of Cortez.
Expect widespread showers and a few thunderstorms through Wednesday as a low pressure system slowly moves across the desert southwest.
Blocky pattern aloft is very slightly progressive in the near- term, with the desert sw and ne states upper lows and plains ridge moving slowly eastward. The ne low is in the process of spinning off another upper low over far northern Ontario. At the surface, ridging will slowly east to our east, ending northerly winds and associated cold advection. With warmer daytime temps and some mid/high clouds around, one might assume that mid temps are also likely to be milder tonight. Will be trending temps a touch cooler, mainly upper 20s to lower 30s. Weak high pressure slips off to our east Wednesday.
446 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. Shower activity will end across much of the area tonight as northern stream trof slides through the northern plains, with showers lingering into Wednesday afternoon along the Nebraska border. Upper level ridge builds into the northern plains for the last half of the week.
Northwest flow from the upper low over Quebec will continue to make it much cooler than normal, but a little moderation is expected today as heights rise slightly. Clouds due to a short wave trough sliding over NY and the generally cyclonic flow will cover the NE counties for the first part of the day, with some clearing possible there this afternoon.
There is some glimmer of light Tuesday night into Wednesday that the deep blocking low pressure system over the North Atlantic will give way and so our upper level low will slowly depart to the east.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through the rest of the week. /issued 356 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017/ High pressure will remain in control of the weather across South Florida through the end of the week. High temperatures each afternoon will remain in the mid 80s across the East Coast metro areas to the lower 90s across interior sections.
Latest satellite imagery is showing some scattered clouds across northwest Montana this morning, which has kept temperatures warmer than yesterday morning.
300 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 main concerns for short term are rain showers this morning and relative humidity values today and Wednesday Current surface analysis indicate a line of widely scattered rain showers associated with a trough extending from northern St. The low relative humidity values early this morning will rise during the morning hours behind the line of rain showers/trough. It will be clear to partly cloudy tonight as an area of high pressure builds into the region.
Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through this evening on the back side of a departing low pressure system. Warmer and drier conditions will take over after Wednesday. Outflow from bands of persistent overnight convection is helping to push low level moisture further north as the low begins lifting to the northeast from the northern Gulf of California. This afternoon and evening, mid and upper level moisture will begin wrapping around on top of this low level moisture, setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms.
Highs will again be in the low 80s. Some expansion in coverage could occur during the overnight should the low level jet interact with any outflow/the effective frontal boundary.
/26/ Another quiet evening is in store tonight as high pressure continues to sit just off the coast of Louisiana. The low level moisture seeping in from the Gulf will bring a few CU into our southwest region, but mostly clear conditions will continue elsewhere. /12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday afternoon: Ridging aloft will continue to build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as high pressure at the surface slowly slides east of the forecast area over the next 24 hours. /19/ Tuesday night through the coming weekend: High pressure ridging aloft in between western and eastern CONUS troughs will be most pronounced over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, keeping our current warming trend going through at least Wednesday night.
Ridging centered along the Gulf coast will allow for another sunny day across the region.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a breaking-down omega block pattern, with upper-level ridging centered over the central Plains. Upper-level lows were centered in southern QB and over the northern Gulf of CA, as well as in the Gulf of Alaska and a smaller low embedded in troughing across BC/AB/SK. Lows at 850mb were centered in northern SK and northern QB, with a trough extending along the Dakotas-MN border through central NE to the western KS-NE border.
High pressure then builds over Rockies and high plains for Wednesday leading to fair skies.
532 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Small MCS rolling southeastward across northern Illinois into west central Indiana, along the edge of the 850 mb warm front, where MUCAPE's were in the vicinity of 1000 J/kg at 2 am. The surface warm front is just southwest of I-74, and is not expected to make much additional progress before an area of low pressure moves southeast out of Iowa later this morning. Will need to watch the temperatures closely across the far northern CWA, as there is potential for significant high temperature adjustments if the front gets further north before the low arrives with its trailing cold front.
202 AM PDT Tue May 9 2017 A warming and drying trend will be in store through midweek as high pressure briefly builds across the region.
High pressure aloft building in from the southwest will keep most of the area dry with warming temperatures through this period. However, moisture coming up from an upper level low pressure area over the Southwest U.
A weak upper ridge will provide dry and warmer weather today. An upper low will bring a slight chance of showers Wednesday, mainly to the coast and mountains.
221 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 A warm front will work into the region tonight bringing a chance of rain showers.
456 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 A weak trough moves out to sea this morning. High pressure builds over the area this afternoon into tonight.
501 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 (Today and Tonight) Southwest flow aloft will continue across the region today, ahead of a large upper low currently situated over the northern Gulf of California. As the upper low begins lifting northeast towards the southern Rockies this evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and far West Texas, with some of this this activity possibly reaching western sections of the forecast area late tonight.
248 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. Shower activity will end across much of the area tonight as northern stream trof slides through the northern plains, with showers lingering into Wednesday afternoon along the Nebraska border. Upper level ridge builds into the northern plains for the last half of the week.
High pressure will result in another dry day today, with inland temperatures expected to be a few degrees above average for this time of year.
343 AM PDT Tue May 9 2017 Moisture wrapping around upper level low pressure over the northern Gulf of California will bring a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms to the mountains this afternoon.
An unseasonably strong low pressure system will affect the area through Wednesday. Dry conditions with much warmer temperatures will return late in the week. Water vapor imagery this morning showed the closed low responsible for valley rain and mountain snow was over the northern Gulf of California with several disturbances rotating around this low. This closed low will fill as it lifts to the northeast across the area as the day progresses with the above mentioned disturbances bringing enhanced shower activity to the area. Area coverage of showers gradually diminishing later tonight into the overnight hours as the upper low lifts northeast into New Mexico. Warmer Wednesday with isolated showers lingering especially NE of Tucson.
High pressure covers much of the southeast U. By Wednesday night, a cold front will start to move south from the Mid-Mississippi Valley toward the forecast area.
Northwest flow from the upper low over Quebec will continue to make it much cooler than normal, but a little moderation is expected today as heights rise slightly. Clouds due to a short wave trough sliding over NY and the generally cyclonic flow will have the best chance to cover the NE counties, but even those are dissipating under subsidence now. High clouds blowing off the convection in the upper Midwest will start to creep into PA late today as the upper ridge squeezes east a bit.
358 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low off the Baja California coast, troughing in the Rockies and also in the ern U. and ridging in the plains. Upper pattern does not change much with the closed low moving into the desert sw 00z Wed.
The surface dew point will continue to increase through the period, into the low 60s by mid morning Tuesday. A better chance for organized severe storms returns by Wednesday in the warm conveyor belt region of the approaching southwest upper low, although much of the convection could be focused farther south in Oklahoma.
102 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure will prevail tonight, as a warm front develops to the north through Tuesday.
On Tuesday, another disturbance will rotate northward, east of the upper low over Arizona. Upper low moves eastward, passing over northern New Mexico Wednesday evening.
Enjoy the day! Northwest flow from the upper low over Quebec will continue to make it much cooler than normal, but a little moderation is expected today as heights rise slightly. Clouds due to a short wave trough sliding over NY and the generally cyclonic flow will have the best chance to cover the NE counties, but even those are dissipating under subsidence now. High clouds blowing off the convection in the upper Midwest will start to creep into PA late today as the upper ridge squeezes east a bit.
Upper ridging will shift eastward Wednesday and Wednesday night, with southwest flow developing aloft.
Deep layer ridging remains over the region through the period, with dry conditions and clear to mostly clear skies. Highs today range from the upper 80s/near 90 inland to the lower/mid 80s at the coast.
337 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Today and Tonight: A deep layer subtropical ridge fixed over the Lower MS Valley region will maintain the quiet and warm weather pattern early this week.
Ridging aloft will bring warming to the area in the short term.
227 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017 Storms moving across southern Nebraska are being enhanced by weak low level convergence and moist axis associated with cold front laying E-W across the area.
More northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the area tonight as any upper ridging gets pushed further south as a deep upper low begins to develop across Manitoba and far western Ontario. The drier air in place from earlier in the day will eventually be replaced by increasing moisture/cloud cover being pulled around the upper low overnight. As the previously mentioned upper low remains nearly stationary around the Manitoba/Ontario border region, the area will remain in cooler northwest flow aloft.
Thunderstorms should develop over eastern Colorado and along the warm front near the KS/NE border this afternoon.
422 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 The slow moving low pressure system that has been stuck over our region, will finally start to pull away. Upper level low has overstayed its welcome, and will finally be sent east to bug our neighbors in New England. A weak wave on periphery of upper low, as well as a passing jet max, could still muster up a couple spotty showers in Central New York today. Some of our typically coldest spots such as Cortland-Norwich- Corning-Elmira-Sidney-Oneonta-Delhi could easily dip to around freezing.
Increased cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than previous nights, thus limiting any frost potential. Stayed close to the model blend for temperatures, but there is concern that clouds and rain may result in a slightly cooler readings, especially across our southern counties.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a ridge axis running from northern California through western Montana and turning north into Alberta. To the south a closed low remains over the desert Southwest. Farther west a closed low lies over the Gulf of Alaska.
335 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Broad high pressure remains over the region and will keep current benign weather conditons through the end of the work week. Expect generally dry and sunny conditions to continue with max temperatures in the mid 80s over the metro areas and up to the lower 90s interior.
Plenty of cloud cover expected today as lingering lower level moisture gets trapped under increasing mid-level ridging/subsidence. Another mid-level trough ejects northeast out of the Plains toward the area tonight, pushing shower chances into the area after midnight. Showers become likely mainly south of I-94 Wednesday as the mid-level trough and increasing mid-level frontogenesis push through. As a result of the clouds/showers, highs will range from the lower 60s across the south to the lower/middle 60s across northern parts of the forecast area.
1231 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Latest surface analysis had weak low pressure centered over the upper Midwest, with a warm front extending southeast across the southern tip of Illinois. 2 PM surface map showed 1006 mb low pressure in southwest MN with a warm front extending southeast into west central IL. Lows will be significantly warmer than recent nights, in the low to mid 50s. Highs should range from the low to mid 70s north of I-74, to the lower 80s farther southwest where more sunshine and southwest flow will boost readings.
433 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Webcams show some fog has developed over Watertown to Summit, otherwise high pressure is moving in today, with a dry low level airmass that is quite evident in BUFKIT soundings. Additionally, there will be a weak trough rotating around an upper low over Canada which will move across the area early Wednesday.
602 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure will strengthen over the eastern Great Lakes today into Wednesday. Low pressure from the plains states will move southeast along a warm front in the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight.
Storms which develop well west of the area later today will attempt to be maintained into the overnight hours within a zone of strengthening warm advection downstream of slow moving upper low.
Slightly drier air in the lower levels is expected to reach the coastal counties this evening.