Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN. THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS AREA. FAVORED COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
915 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH THIS EVENING IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND PERSIST FOR SOME TIME.
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PLUS A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WAS ENTERING EXTREME EASTERN OK & NORTHWEST AR AT 3 PM. DRY AIRMASS COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-30S FOR LOW-LYING AND/OR SHELTERED AREAS. THIS HAD MADE SENSE AS THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WOULD DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHED SOUTHEAST KS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING MID-UPPER WAVE THAT WAS THE REMNANT OF A POWERFUL MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAD MOVED EAST FROM COLORADO. ALL RAINFALL SHOULD END BY 8-9PM AS MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS THESE AREAS. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE ON WED.
904 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST IL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE H5 TROF PASSING LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AND RIGHT NOW, THAT SAME TROF HAS MORE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO CLEAR DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WARM FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN. A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING THOUGH AND A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.
943 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY.
/ISSUED 719 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED OUT IN FRONT OF COLD FRONT WITH LINE OF PULSING/MULTICELLULAR SEVERE STROMS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND STORMS.
500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S.
THERE IS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 06Z AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Main rain shield that developed in response to the low pressure system to our southeast will continue to slowly lift northeast late this afternoon and into this evening. Meanwhile, scattered convection will continue to develop in its wake ahead of the main upper level trof and cold front.
CURRENT TRENDS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE JUST AS COOL IF NOT COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES MID TO LATE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. OF COURSE DEEPER SNOW PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT EAST OF RAWLINS WILL MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACES LIKE LARAMIE UNTIL THE SNOW MELTS. KEPT HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE SNOW PACK AREAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1146 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST IL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE H5 TROF PASSING LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AND RIGHT NOW, THAT SAME TROF HAS MORE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO CLEAR DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MONDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONDITIONS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK.
Latest surface analysis at 20Z was located just to the north of I-35 and is expected to continue to push to the southeast as the upper trough moves east through the rest of the afternoon. Some small hail is possible with storms southeast of I-35 where mid level lapse rates were steeper near the core of the upper low. The upper level trough will move east into Missouri and Arkansas this evening bringing an end to the showers. Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday as cold air advection continues across the area in northwest flow.
/ISSUED 357 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND A SECOND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WAS AIDING IN THE INITIATION OF THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AND THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND GETS ABSORBED WITHIN A CLOSED LOW DROPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OPENS AND TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR REGION. IN THE PROCESS IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT.
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06-09Z. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 72 48 70 / 60 40 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 70 46 66 / 70 60 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 69 46 67 / 70 60 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 71 44 63 / 70 60 40 10.
1009 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015 INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MORE NUMEROUS ECHOES ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THESE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. OF COURSE DEEPER SNOW PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT EAST OF RAWLINS WILL MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACES LIKE LARAMIE UNTIL THE SNOW MELTS. KEPT HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE SNOW PACK AREAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATER TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE WITH THE HIGHER POPS DEFINITELY ACROSS THE NORTH.
623 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 CLOSED LOW NORTH OF WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH INTO OKLAHOMA. RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. RIVER VALLEYS AND TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH 250MB JET ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAINLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL DRAW CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND WET BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS WELL BELOW THRESHOLD FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL USHER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
719 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED OUT IN FRONT OF COLD FRONT WITH LINE OF PULSING/MULTICELLULAR SEVERE STROMS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND STORMS.
809 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROF IN AS MANY DAYS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TUE LOOKING LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY DAY WITH THE ADDITION OF THE RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.
1059 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. THE DEEPENING NATURE OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA. FIRE WEATHER AND FROST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW LEADS TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
I WOULD BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THAT THIS MORNINGS LOWS WERE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. PERUSING SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SOME SOLUTIONS ARE COOLER THAN OTHERS FOR TONIGHT'S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID. WILL GO AHEAD A TAKE THE COOLER SOLUTION GIVEN THE FACT THAT A COLD AIR MASS IS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLDEST OF READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S. WILL PUT IN SILENT 14 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS ARE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY.
1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 Issued am 410 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 Big upper level trough is finally swinging through the area, bringing with it enough to ascent to kick off another round (and likely final round) of precipitation across the area. According to water vapor imagery the axis of the low still sits across central and eastern Kansas, so the bulk of the lift is working its way through the area at this time. By the late part of the week into the weekend, a mid level trough will make its way into the plains and use the available moisture to bring more widespread rains.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. /ISSUED 719 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED OUT IN FRONT OF COLD FRONT WITH LINE OF PULSING/MULTICELLULAR SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND STORMS.
DRY AIRMASS COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-30S FOR LOW-LYING AND/OR SHELTERED AREAS. ADK SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WAS ENTERING EXTREME EASTERN OK & NORTHWEST AR AT 3 PM. THIS HAD MADE SENSE AS THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WOULD DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHED SOUTHEAST KS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING MID-UPPER WAVE THAT WAS THE REMNANT OF A POWERFUL MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAD MOVED EAST FROM COLORADO. ALL RAINFALL SHOULD END BY 8-9PM AS MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS THESE AREAS. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE ON WED.
RAINFALL CHANCES WERE LOWERED FROM THE HIGHER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
650 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TODAY. THE DEEPENING NATURE OF THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA. FIRE WEATHER AND FROST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW LEADS TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. RAIN BECAME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW DRIFTED NORTH. THE REFLECTION OF THIS WAS SEEN AT THE SFC WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NE MINNESOTA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IL WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND GIVE ANY LINGERING RAINFALL A QUICK SHOT OF EXTRA LIFT. MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES.
Wind will veer around to the E overnight becoming SE Monday as new leeside trough develops. /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/ Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the central U. A cold front will continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds behind it. Will continue to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a thunderstorm or two.
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ SCT SVR TSTMS OVER E TX/NW LA ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION HAVE WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. A BIT COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER START TO THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION.
621 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 SCT SVR TSTMS OVER E TX/NW LA ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION HAVE WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. A BIT COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER START TO THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION.
UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES MID TO LATE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDER AIR LAGGING BEHIND INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEN DEGREES OR SO COOLER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
815 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY.
929 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH THIS EVENING IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND PERSIST FOR SOME TIME.
1046 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY.
603 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 Issued am 410 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 Big upper level trough is finally swinging through the area, bringing with it enough to ascent to kick off another round (and likely final round) of precipitation across the area. According to water vapor imagery the axis of the low still sits across central and eastern Kansas, so the bulk of the lift is working its way through the area at this time. By the late part of the week into the weekend, a mid level trough will make its way into the plains and use the available moisture to bring more widespread rains.
EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR CKV THRU 20/05Z PER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DYNAMICS. SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH A WARM FROM SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, A COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH JUST NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAT IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION COMES THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE H5 TROF PASSING LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AND RIGHT NOW, THAT SAME TROF HAS MORE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO CLEAR DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WAS ENTERING EXTREME EASTERN OK & NORTHWEST AR AT 3 PM. THIS HAD MADE SENSE AS THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WOULD DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHED SOUTHEAST KS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING MID-UPPER WAVE THAT WAS THE REMNANT OF A POWERFUL MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAD MOVED EAST FROM COLORADO. ALL RAINFALL SHOULD END BY 8-9PM AS MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS THESE AREAS. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE ON WED.
Strong 1046 mb polar high pressure west of Lake Winnipeg Canada to settle se into MN/IA by sunrise Sat and bring a frigid night to the region. Very cold conditions expected to start the day Saturday across central and southeast Illinois as Arctic high pressure builds across the area.
H5 ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTH TO MONTANA. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AS THE HIGH MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.
934 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 WEAK REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SEEN ON SFC OBS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS ADVANCING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AND MOST AREAS ARE SEEING A NICE WARM UP DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING MARKED BY A DEW PT GRADIENT AND PRECEDED BY A FEW BANDS OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED WITH MILD PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW/60S. THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S OVERNIGHT TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK OVER SE GA AND ALONG THE COAST. WHICH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. GUSTY WNW WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE TO 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND TRAILING THE COLD FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINED OVER OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ADVISORY OFFSHORE.
DRIZZLE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM ROUGHLY PUEBLO EASTWARD FOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MIGHT ALSO SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS WRAP BRIEFLY WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN PUEBLO/EL PASO COUNTIES. LEE TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE KS BORDER ON SAT AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
Visible imagery shows some energy still rounding the base of the mean long wave trof, with clouds affecting all but the far south/west parts of our FA. as upper energy starts to spill southward out of the High Plains.
515 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016 A cold front will pass through the region tonight with continued precipitation chances and slightly lower snow levels.
WE WILL TRANSITION FROM A COLD PATTERN TO MILD PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO. EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND IS REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE U.
THE CORE OF THIS COLD AIR IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER OVER EASTERN ND.
/ISSUED 426 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH LARGE SCALE TROF COVERING EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AT THIS TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS AREA AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SURGE EASTWARD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 OVER CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM CST SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON CO TO LIBERTY CO/. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TOWARD THE GULF TONIGHT. /ISSUED 558 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SE TX.
IT'S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COLD TROF IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES. A POOR REPRESENTATION OF A MID WINTER COLD FRONT AS TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF LIGHT FREEZING PCPN OVER EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WITH SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND ELEVATED WARMING. OTHERWISE OUR WEST WILL BE DRY WITH STEADY OR WARMING SFC TEMPS AS SFC TROF MOVES EAST AND OFF THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
534 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.