Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We will quickly heat back into the lower 90s for the weekend ahead of a front.
After another potentially frosty night tonight, a low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms for Friday through the weekend.
815 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Upper low over central Montana this evening has scattered showers/thunderstorms over the eastern half of the state moving NE-N. Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping into the low pressure system, leading to notably lower than expected precipitation amounts. Upper ridging will rebound across the region this weekend with drier weather conditions and temperatures returning to more seasonable readings.
(This evening through Friday) A cold front is approaching north Georgia where it will bring enhanced cloud coverage and gusty winds to north and central Georgia. Luckily, this cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass with low temperatures in the 50s along and north of I-20 and the 60s across areas to the south.
352 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 As advertised, the mid-level low pressure system to the northwest continued tracking eastward across the northern Rockies today. Clearing has resulted in some stronger cells developing throughout the day, fueled by the low-level moisture.
425 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 An area of low pressure and upper level trough, currently over western Montana, will move eastward overnight, bringing the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere ahead of the low pressure system is rather dry, with the 12Z ABR sounding showing a PWAT of 0.
The flow through the column is all from the cooler direction today with breezy north winds at the surface and northwest flow aloft. An upper ridge axis over the central/high plains gives way to troughing over the northeast, and the surface cold front that dropped our temperatures 25-30 degrees from yesterday is well into the deep south.
There's slight instability noted, with MLCAPE of 200 J/kg or less over the high country, but just enough to keep isolated storms in the forecast early this evening. Most of the showers and storms will end by early evening, while there may be just enough mid level moisture and orographic support for a few showers to linger in the high country past midnight. By late tonight, the upper level trough axis finally passes and we'll get into stronger subsidence. Mostly sunny, warmer, and breezy conditions will prevail Friday with a dry and subsident airmass in place. From Mon into Tue, a weak upper level ridge will be over the area. At this time, Mon looks dry with highs in the lower to mid 80s over the plains. CAMs are consistent in clearing out the low-mid level clouds this evening.
Dry weather and warmer interior daytime temperatures are forecast will continue on Friday and through this weekend. Fair weather conditions with warming temperatures today as high pressure build across Northern California.
741 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Upper low is now located across north central MT, with cyclonic flow around it bringing disturbances across MT, far northern WY, and into the Dakotas. Winds are gradually decreasing with the setting sun and the slow approach of the Pacific cold front to the west. Upper low currently centered over northwestern Montana will continue to drift eastward, moving into North Dakota by Friday morning. A tight surface pressure gradient to the east of the trough is producing gusty southerly winds over northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. On Friday, breezy to windy northwesterly winds will develop in the moderately tight surface pressure gradient to the west of the departing low pressure system.
Showers will diminish overnight with mostly clear skies areawide and lows mostly in the low/mid 70s. A strong ridge of high pressure to the west (centered over Texas) is the source of this airmass.
417 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 An area of low pressure and upper level trough, currently over western Montana, will move eastward overnight, bringing the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere ahead of the low pressure system is rather dry, with the 12Z ABR sounding showing a PWAT of 0.
720 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Through Friday) Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over us with a well-defined frontal boundary progressing across the lower TN Valley.
640 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (This evening through Friday) The morning cold front has kept temps on the cool side with mesonet stations reporting temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s as of noon. Temps could, however, be a few degrees cooler than what is forecasted in some areas if winds drop to near calm during the early morning hours. The upper high over the region will continue to dominate tomorrow but will be weakened slightly as the upper low currently over the Inter Mountain West pushes eastward towards the Northern Plains. The upper high will keep things warm and dry with highs reaching into the low/mid 90s.
539 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) Warm and dry weather will persist through the short term, as upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Given little, if any, change to antecedent conditions, tonight will be similar to last night with breezy south winds yielding lows a degree or two above normal for the first night of fall, generally in the lower to middle 60s for all but the mountain areas, where lows in the 50s are possible.
456 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (This afternoon through Friday Night) Cold front has cleared Middle Tennessee and has left behind some post-frontal clouds and spotty light showers. Temperatures are also significantly cooler than those we observed 24 hours ago, and readings tonight and tomorrow are going to be quite pleasant.
540 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Upper low currently centered over northwestern Montana will continue to drift eastward, moving into North Dakota by Friday morning. A tight surface pressure gradient to the east of the trough is producing gusty southerly winds over northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. On Friday, breezy to windy northwesterly winds will develop in the moderately tight surface pressure gradient to the west of the departing low pressure system.
(The rest of tonight) Shallow cold front being slowed by the terrain of far SE OK this evening, with temps ranging from upper 50s along KS/OK border to mid 80s near the Red River. (Tonight through Thursday) becomes diffuse on Friday with a warming trend quickly returning through the early part of the weekend as the upper ridge remains over the southern Plains.
However, the northerly winds should keep low temperatures well above dewpoints in the lower 50s to mid 50s.
1005 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Skies are mostly clear this evening as dry air moves in behind todays cold front. Cooler and drier air follows cold frontal passage for this evening and Friday. Increased cloud cover continues to move through this afternoon associated with the passage of the cold front across our region. Upper level northwesterly flow brings cooler and drier air to fill in behind the front for Thursday night and Friday. Pleasant and dry conditions expected for Friday--highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s across much of the area will feel much more like Fall than the past several days.
833 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 What a difference a day makes! After hitting the upper 90s to low 100s in parts of Middle Tennessee yesterday, much cooler temperatures have arrived in the midstate with current readings in the upper 50s and 60s.
As advertised, the mid-level low pressure system to the northwest continued tracking eastward across the northern Rockies today. Clearing has resulted in some stronger cells developing throughout the day, fueled by the low-level moisture.
The upper low that brought days of showers to the region continues to slowly move east away from the region.
640 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Tonight) A cold front is currently pushing into the Tennessee Valley, bringing with it a cooler air mass and some broken decks of mid- level clouds filtering in along/behind this boundary. The main story will continue to be the push of cooler and drier air which will bring an end to the unseasonably warm weather we've been experiencing of late. Temperatures will likely peak in the mid 80s this afternoon and drop into the low to mid 50s by early Friday morning -- about 15 degrees lower than this morning.
727 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Increasing winds and cooler temperatures follow a front this afternoon into this evening.
Conditions across the area are fitting for the Autumnal equinox as the passage of a cold front earlier this morning has ushered in a cooler and much drier air mass into eastern Kentucky. Temperatures range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, generally 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday, along with dew points in the low to mid 50s. Lows under mostly clear skies will fall into the low to mid 40s. An upper level trough will continue to drift off to the east which will allow for a brief period of ridging to move in. This will support high pressure development at the surface over the upper Mississippi Valley and will drift east to the Great Lakes region by Friday.
209 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Increasing winds and cooler temperatures follow a front this afternoon into this evening. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes into Friday and Saturday.
1117 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Much cooler, more autumn like weather, will be with us into the upcoming weekend.
For today, we will see a break in the near to record temperatures from yesterday with highs in the lower to upper 80s across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia and the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle.
1143 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (The rest of tonight) Shallow cold front being slowed by the terrain of far SE OK this evening, with temps ranging from upper 50s along KS/OK border to mid 80s near the Red River.
High pressure begins to build over the southwest U. With this, dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and generally northwesterly flow prevail.
Upper level low continues to progress across the state this morning bringing widespread showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. As this low stalls in southern Canada, a secondary upper low looks to rotate through later today. The upcoming work week then sees the pattern controlled by another amplified ridge building across the west. Temperatures to start the week will be controlled by how far eastward this ridge can build. Ensembles are showing this ridge take over more and more by mid to perhaps late week. Some ensemble indications are to flatten the ridge later in the upcoming week, which may open the door for a disturbance or two.
1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 What a difference a day makes! After hitting the upper 90s to low 100s in parts of Middle Tennessee yesterday, much cooler temperatures have arrived in the midstate with current readings in the upper 50s and 60s.
1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (This evening through Friday) The morning cold front has kept temps on the cool side with mesonet stations reporting temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s as of noon. Temps could, however, be a few degrees cooler than what is forecasted in some areas if winds drop to near calm during the early morning hours. The upper high over the region will continue to dominate tomorrow but will be weakened slightly as the upper low currently over the Inter Mountain West pushes eastward towards the Northern Plains. The upper high will keep things warm and dry with highs reaching into the low/mid 90s.
411 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure will extend across the area today and move off to the east on Saturday.
301 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Cooler drier high pressure will build in today and tonight behind a cold frontal passage early this morning. Fair weather will continue Saturday with dry high pressure remaining over the region.
(Today through Saturday) With the front now to our south, a pleasantly cool and dry airmass is filtering south through Central AL with dewpoints in the lower 50s across our north. This orientation will result in beautiful conditions today beginning with morning temps in the 50s north to mid 60s south warming up into the lower/mid 80s by the afternoon with mostly clear skies, but the best part will be the low humidity. Efficient radiational cooling tonight will lead to area- wide lows in the 50s and perhaps and few readings in the upper 40s in the cooler valley locations. Slightly warmer on Saturday once boundary layer winds become southeasterly, but without any moisture return another sunny, dry day is forecast.
High pressure will then build back into the northeastern Pacific in the wake of the front over the weekend, bringing mostly benign conditions to the area waters.
Some light radar returns were moving through portions of south- central/southeast NE this afternoon, though high pressure building in and northeasterly flow ushering in dry air was preventing much from reaching the ground. While the greatest coverage will be in the Dakotas, closer to the low, all CAMs suggest at least some spotty activity in the forecast area, especially after midnight. Saturday will be slightly warmer with westerly downslope flow helping to get us back into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front has continued to slowly sink south throughout the day, making it through all but southern Arkansas. Dry air and cooler temperatures will moderate through the period. Temperatures will be well above average areawide Saturday as sfc ridging shifts east and srly flow returns. This heat will be short lived as another cold front approaches from the north, rain chances appear limited ahead of the front.
(Today through Saturday) Cool start to the morning so far with a few areas already in the upper 40s, and most of the mid state in the low to mid 50s. Westerly winds around 10 mph will mix the low levels a bit, and dewpoints should get down to the low 40s and even upper 30s.
1103 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Much cooler, more autumn like weather, will be with us into the upcoming weekend.
(Today and Tonight) Above normal temperatures will persist across the area again today, as upper level high pressure resides over the area.
419 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure centered aloft over Texas will continue to build eastward over the region for the next few days, while at the surface, flow remains out of the northeast as Fiona moves near Bermuda.
Some gusts up to 30 mph will be possible at times, but some vertical veering of the low lvl wind profile may prevent stronger flow at 850 mb from mixing downwards. Temperatures respond by remaining in the upper 50s over the Buffalo Ridge to mid 60s towards I-29. By mid-afternoon the aforementioned surface front will reach portions of the James River valley allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 70s.
140 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Skies are mostly clear this evening as dry air moves in behind todays cold front. Cooler and drier air follows cold frontal passage for this evening and Friday. Increased cloud cover continues to move through this afternoon associated with the passage of the cold front across our region.
A cold front, currently across eastern sections of MT/WY, will move east across South Dakota and our area during the day reaching our eastern zones by late this afternoon or early evening. As the upper level trough axis pivots through the area in conjunction with the fropa, another area of showers and a few thunderstorms will move across north-central SD and into the James valley closer to midday through the afternoon. There's no signs of any significantly cooler air that will move in on the backside of the low pressure system. That pattern featuring a western CONUS ridge, and downstream eastern CONUS trof, often referred to as a positive phase PNA pattern. The highly meridional pattern does appear to breakdown some toward the end of the period as energy starts coming ashore the PacNW.
The areas most likely to see higher amounts will be the Devils Lake basin with redevelopment of activity this afternoon as the center of the weakening upper wave approaches and also across the southern valley and west central MN as 500mb PVA pushes east on the base of the broad trough. Highs will hold in the 50s in MN today with some low 60s expected in eastern ND however with gusts to 30mph on south winds it will feel rather raw and cooler given the shower activity and dampness.
Upper low continues to depart to the east while a weak upper ridge builds over the PAC NW. Clouds are clearing as the upper low departs, but concern for the early morning hours is fog/stratus development as well as some patchy frost. Fair weather should stay in place through tomorrow with high pressure lingering over the West.
upper level ridging builds across the western 1/3 of the country with northwest flow over the Tri-State area.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Temperatures will remain warm with widespread 80s and 90s over the next few days thanks to persistent ridging overhead and above- normal boundary layer temps. Drier low-levels will aid in radiational cooling patterns for the overnight time frames leading to "cooler" mornings with more lows in the 60s with 50s across the northern tier of Lea and the high terrain above 4000ft. We'll see a slow expansion of the ridge to the east with the center displaced over N TX instead of the Rio Concho by Sat, but this will have little effect on the ambient weather pattern.
Most of the short term deterministic models are showing surface and 850 mb winds switching to the southwest around mid morning and warmer air being ushered in from the south. By mid afternoon a trough of low pressure and a weak upper level trough will bring a wind shift to western Kansas which should also help to warm the temperatures especially out west. Saturday might be one of the warmer days where the Red Hills and Oklahoma line extend afternoon highs into the low 90s.
High temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday's, due to building high pressure, although we anticipate generally seasonably warm readings or a touch above average. A warmer and drier pattern will last for the next seven days, compared to recent days.
ABR still in the lower 40s currently, but examination of obs across northern SD shows some locations have dropped into the 34 to 36 degree range, all within the current Frost Advisory. Turning to winds, we'll see south-southeast winds increase throughout the day as the high shifts off to the east. These showers are attributed to a low pressure system at the sfc and aloft that will be making its gradual exit to our east into the western Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. Through the upcoming weekend, our CWA will be in between this system and high pressure across the Rockies and Northern High Plains.
(Tonight through Friday) A surface front continues to push southward tonight, and is currently near TOI, where winds are calm and dewpoints still in the lower 70s. Deep-layer ridging will become centered further southeast over the Texas Gulf Coast through the day Friday. Highs will range from the upper 70s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 80s far south and across the southwest.
331 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Roller coaster of temperatures in store, reaching the peak Saturday before trending cooler.
258 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 An upper level trough currently located over the Northern Great Plains will push eastward today bringing a chance for showers across our area today. Highs will vary across Kansas with portions of south-central and central Kansas seeing highs in the 70s and 80s while highs may reach the low 90s in far southern Kansas. Temperatures should rebound with highs in the mid 80s in central Kansas and highs in the low into the low 90s.
1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 (Tonight through Friday night) Broad subtropical ridging will remain in control of our weather, with mostly sunny skies and seasonally warm high temperatures continuing today and tomorrow. A stalled, weak cold front just to our north will gradually wash out and never reach south-central TX.
Most of the short term deterministic models are showing surface and 850 mb winds switching to the southwest around mid morning and warmer air being ushered in from the south. By mid afternoon a trough of low pressure and a weak upper level trough will bring a wind shift to western Kansas which should also help to warm the temperatures especially out west.
Dry air and cooler temperatures across the region through Saturday. Following the passage of a cold front yesterday, the region is now under much cooler temperatures accompanied by drier air.
134 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure will build into the area over the next couple of days, bringing much cooler conditions, and then move off to the east on Saturday.
Our next chance of showers arrives for late Friday night into Saturday as a sfc warm front tries to push our way ahead of the next approaching upper trough. Perhaps a tstm or two could occur on Saturday night as the sfc occlusion comes through and the upper trough and cold air aloft deepens/digs back into the region.
Low-level thickness progs are similar to yesterday, but with a more stable boundary-layer expect sfc temps to run a couple degrees cooler than Thu afternoon, and several degrees below normal for this time of year. Upper low hugging the Canadian border will make its way east from the Big Sky country to the Arrowhead of Minnesota, with isentropic lift developing this evening over the Lower Ohio Valley. Synoptically, an upper level trough is expected to amplify as it progresses across the Great Lakes region on Saturday.
303 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Subtropical Ridge remains overhead today with weak ridging at the surface. A strong thermal ridge also lingers. An inverted trough moving onshore the lower Texas coast tonight will move farther west over central/southern Texas and northeastern Mexico on Saturday splitting the Subtropical Ridge. The moisture and weakening of the thermal ridge leads to "cooler" high temperatures well shy of any records on Saturday, though still above normal.
1248 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Much cooler, more autumn like weather, will be with us into the upcoming weekend.
High temps in northeast should reach the mid 70s where sunshine breaks out first, but highs across portions of southwest IA will only reach the lower 60s where clouds hold the longest. When combined with northwest breezy winds, the rangeland fire danger index does reach the high category across eastern NE, with a couple of counties of Madison and Lancaster reaching the very high category, with minimum humidity 25 to 30 percent.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the region through Saturday.
217 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 An upper low over eastern Montana is dominating our weather this morning with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds over southern MT and north central WY. Look for the showers to dissipate from west to east this morning as the upper low moves eastward, such that much of south central MT should have dry weather by 6 AM MDT and southeast MT closer to noon MDT.
Areas of fog in WI have dissipated as the clouds began rolling in and temperatures have held steady in the low 40s, preventing frost formation. The upper low will track east and so will the area of redeveloped showers through the evening into WI.
308 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Benign conditions are prevailing early this morning with high pressure in control. In addition to the cold temps, the high has also allowed for light to calm winds, and with low dewpoint depressions coupled with still-moist grounds from recent rainfall, some FG has developed. With the ridge peaking over us Friday morning, expect sunny skies to quickly erode any remaining fog, freezing fog, and frost. Rain showers could begin as early as late Friday afternoon in the west, continuing on throughout Friday night as the center of the low moves over the area.