Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging in the western Atlantic is incrementally building into the area, with height rises noted at 500mb. The ridge axis, as diffuse as it is, extends across south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and the Keys remain on its southern periphery. If any do develop, giving the light easterly flow, they will develop north of the lower Keys as occurred yesterday afternoon (north of Key West and Boca Chica). Outside of waterspout chances, convection should be very limited, and temperatures across the islands will rise into the lower 90s due to the light winds and ample sunshine.
The Rex block will separate today with the low digging into the E. This allows high pressure to build across the West and usher in a warming trend. To the West of the divide high based isolated storms will be possible in the high country with gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning way more of a threat than significant rainfall. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday and possibly a bit cooler in the high country as more clouds should be present. Temperatures look to increase a few degrees as we start to build in high pressure over the Intermountain West. The blocking low over the eastern CONUS will allow low pressure to drop out of the high latitudes back to the West by midweek.
Cold front advancing through following evening with NE wind shift, becoming gusty at all terminals, sans KCNM. /issued 405 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/ WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered off the coast of Baja, and a trough moving into the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. NBM came in at 107F, but dry soils and compressional warming ahead of tonight's cold front warrant adding at least a degree, for record-breaking temps for many locations. Somewhere in the mix of convective outflows will be a cold front moving in overnight and Tuesday to break the warm spell, bringing much cooler temps near Tuesday afternoon.
A slight rise in mid level heights will also occur as we go into the afternoon hours thanks to an exiting short wave trough that brought showers and a few storms this morning.
327 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 The focus in the short term is on the slightly cooler and more seasonable temperatures and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms each day across the central High Plains region. The northwest flow aloft will also bring an area of cooler high pressure over the region that keeps high temperatures mainly in the 80s.
Waves within the broad cyclonic flow of an upper low over Ontario will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast periodically through mid-week.
Prominent ridging and downslope flow will occur throughout Tuesday, allowing temperatures to climb to the mid 80s, and conditions to slightly dry out, with RHs getting down to the mid 20s.
/issued 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/ Slow moving upper level low over western Ontario this morning continues to be our most influential weather feature today as a trough axis south of the low swings by, embedded in the mean northwesterly flow aloft. This is driving a cold front through the CWFA early this morning assisted by outflow from convection over western OK and the TX panhandle.
656 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Aviation - Scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday - Cooler week, warming up again toward the end of the week -- Scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday -- Weak instability, weak forcing, and weak wind profiles again set up the possibility of hit-or-miss showers/storms this afternoon.
821 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 High pressure will remain southeast of the region through Tuesday.
540 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 The focus in the short term is on the slightly cooler and more seasonable temperatures and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms each day across the central High Plains region. The northwest flow aloft will also bring an area of cooler high pressure over the region that keeps high temperatures mainly in the 80s.
This maximum is progged to push east out of the CWA by 12Z this morning The low level winds are weak and mostly drainage right now. There is fairly decent CAPE progged this afternoon and evening with the highest values, again, in the mountains and foothills. Temperatures look to be 1-3 C cooler today from yesterday's highs.
735 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected. The weakened upper ridge will try to build back in with warm 500mb temps around -8C.
And we will have the surface cold front and/or a convective boundary from this morning's convection in the area to help with storm development. Additionally, storms are also expected to develop in the High Plains to the west with the upslope low-level flow, and these storms will also make a run for western sections of the area this evening and overnight.
Several short waves will drop south-southeast around the exiting upper low, one today which will bring a few light rain showers during the heating of the day. A tad warmer at the sfc (low-mid 70s) so a bit more sfc CAPE in the 500-1200 j/kg range Tues aftn.
321 AM MST Mon Jun 22 2020 High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest, resulting in above normal temperatures through the weekend. Slightly cooler conditions are possible late in the week and into the weekend as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Latest streamline analysis reveals a dry northwesterly flow north of an anticyclone centered offshore of the southern Baja Peninsula. Latest RAP depicts the ridge axis extending northward from the anticyclone into southern California. Latest model guidance remains consistent and indicates the ridge will build northward and settle across the Desert Southwest the next few days.
/issued 329 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020/ Mid level ridging over the Caribbean Sea will gradually lift north into southern Florida through the week as a broad mid level trough slowly rotates from the northern Great Plains through New England. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis will hold across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula for the first half of the week before lifting north across northern Florida late in the week and into the weekend. This pattern will favor another day of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior and across southwest Florida.
925 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Satellite imagery shows northwest flow over the region with a ridge beginning to build in from the west. Prominent ridging and downslope flow will occur throughout Tuesday, allowing temperatures to climb to the mid 80s, and conditions to slightly dry out, with RHs getting down to the mid 20s.
A cold front has settled into far eastern Oklahoma this afternoon with a surface trof ahead of it across central Arkansas into northeast Texas.
1212 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 The focus in the short term is on the slightly cooler and more seasonable temperatures and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms each day across the central High Plains region. The northwest flow aloft will also bring an area of cooler high pressure over the region that keeps high temperatures mainly in the 80s.
High pressure over the region will continue to bring above normal temperatures and dry conditions with some afternoon breezes each day through the week. An area of high pressure off the Eastern Pacific will continue to build and shift eastward through mid-week, with ridging over head by Tuesday.
330 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Cyclonic cold air advection over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will continue tonight and Tuesday as a deep upper-level trough axis moves slowly eastward. This feature will rotate around the western portion of the trough into central Minnesota by Tuesday morning.
Tonight and Tuesday A surface wave moving northeast along a slow moving cold front will produce another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms across all but the Northwoods tonight. Tuesday should be breezy and cooler, with scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms across the southern half of the forecast area as an upper trough moves through.
357 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Troughing continues to slowly amplify over the central US this afternoon, as several smaller disturbances move through the large scale trough. The main cold front which passed through northeast Kansas last night, is currently located across portions of Oklahoma and Missouri. After these storms and showers dissipate, high pressure should begin move in for the rest of the night, with CAA continuing. Mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for temperatures to drop into the low 60s for most. Light northerly winds and mostly sunny skies will continue during the day tomorrow, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s.
POPs will slowly taper down from west to east tonight into Tuesday morning as a surface cold front clears the area. In the wake of the cold front Tuesday, temperatures and humidity will be much more comfortable, with highs in the lower 80s, and dew point temperatures falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
912 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Clear skies prevail today as an upper ridge intensifies, extending from the Baja peninsula northward across California and Oregon. This feature will lead to temperatures about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, and even hotter conditions tomorrow when a few spots will likely hit the century mark for the first time in 2020.
Current forecast lows are coldest in the Hettinger to Glen Ullin area, in the low 40s, but guidance has been too high on lows the past few nights, so some readings in the 30s aren't out of the question. Tuesday should be quiet and warmer as an upper trough deepens to our east, while a shallow ridge begins building over the Northern Plains.
A dryline bulge extends southeast of this mesolow into the southeastern Permian Basin, then southward into the lower Trans Pecos. It's expected that the outflow boundary will push to roughly the Pecos River valley, bringing cooler weather with it to the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
2) A sfc boundary/pre frontal trough over the western cwfa will continue to advance slowly east.
In addition, heavy rainfall with the high PWATs will also give us a localized flood potential in a few locations if we get any training thunderstorms.
1125 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected. A weak upper ridge will try to build back across the region with warm 500mb temps around -8C.
Later tonight, storms are expected to form off the high plains in Colorado and New Mexico.
241 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected. A weak upper ridge will try to build back across the region with warm 500mb temps around -8C.
Temperatures were in the upper 90s on their way to the low 100s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s. In it's wake, a slightly cooler airmass will move in, with cloud cover hanging on through about midday. Still, temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s in the afternoon. SK (Tuesday Night through next Monday) A stationary cold front/outflow boundary is expected to settle south of our forecast area by Tuesday night.
Building ridge aloft will bring dry/clear/warmer conditions tonight through Tuesday night.
Profiles show less than 100j/kg CAPE between 4-10kft, with clouds just topping out above the freezing level (but not more then 1-2kft), followed by a mid level inversion.
An upper trof which extends from the Northern Plains to Louisiana gradually broadens while advancing slowly eastward into the eastern states through Tuesday.
1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A cool northwest wind will filter in over the region in the wake of the cold front that passed through yesterday. High pressure builds in from the west and high temperatures will be in the 70s. High pressure to our west shifts slightly closer as the exiting low to the east. Continued energy from the stalled out upper level low over Ontario will further help to produce scattered rain showers across northern MN and into NW WI.
The light flow has limited boundary development to a few showers forming off thunderstorm outflow between here and the Bahamas sneaking into the Straits east of the upper Keys, and a few showers west of the lower Keys. The western Atlantic ridge has built back into the Florida from the east, with the axis residing somewhere over central to south Florida. As the week progresses, the axis of the ridge will slowly migrate northward, allowing the pressure gradient over the area to tighten up.
A vort max will descend south on the back end of the mid level trough into western Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.
Scattered strong to locally severe storms will be possible during the afternoon/early evening as an upper trough crosses the region. Expect the best coverage through mid-afternoon north and east of PGH ahead of the trough. The atmosphere will quickly stabilize tonight with loss of heating and the axis of the upper trough east of the ridges. The next trough, and its associated surface cold front, will push through the area on Tuesday.
340 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper air pattern has a broad 500 mb trough over the central U. The upper trough will remain over the area through 12z Tue. Will be a combo of lake breeze convergence and cold front pcpn later this morning into this afternoon.
High pressure expand and strengthen across the western states through midweek.
Fairly widespread pcpn still expected to develop later today/ this evening, as a weak cold front approaches. Temps may get a bit warmer then the ongoing forecast reflecting.
Areas that managed to clear out last night dipped into the lower 40s for lows.
This wave is accompanied by a SFC/LL trough axis, and pretty deep moisture, thus expected quite a bit of develop this afternoon to continue into much of tonight. This axis is expected to push a weak shallow cold front through the area on Tues. Long-wave upper trough remains across the region until late week, with an upper ridge building Fri into the weekend. Pcpn likely to be minimal Wed night-Thu night with scattered showers/storms mainly afternoon developing Fri-Sun as upper ridge builds.
1159 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Update - Scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday - Cooler week, warming up again toward the end of the week MCV has become apparent over nrn IL this morning in radar and visible satellite imagery.
The main low pressure center is developing along the MO/IL/IA border with its trailing cold front pushing through the Mid to Lower MS river valley. This is just a bit cooler than the past few days.
1050 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Fairly widespread pcpn still expected to develop later today/ this evening, as a weak cold front approaches. Temps may get a bit warmer then the ongoing forecast reflecting.
The upper-level trough that caused severe weather over the central and southern plains is currently moving northeast and is expected to setup over northeast CONUS through the end of the week. A ridge over southwest CONUS will dominate over that area, this will maintain NW flow aloft through the week across west Texas.
Winds will come around from the north after a cold front moves through later this evening, and for now looks to persist through the TAF period. Current satellite analysis has an upper level low centered over southern Manitoba and southwestern Ontario with a trough extending south-southwest through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Great Plains. An upper level ridge is over the west coast of CONUS with northwest flow aloft over the FA.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 82 69 82 66 / 60 90 80 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 81 67 81 64 / 60 90 80 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 68 80 65 81 63 / 60 90 80 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 80 65 79 61 / 50 90 80 50 20.
241 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper trough/Canadian cut off low is slowly pushing east, north of the Great Lakes.
On Tuesday, an upper trough will be in place across the Great Lakes and Midwest, while an upper ridge extends over all of the Great Basin. Tuesday night, a weak warm front aloft to our west will begin to move east.
Temperatures tomorrow should be near to slightly warmer than today with highs, mostly in the middle 80s.
Upper troughing extending from Hudson Bay and Ontario and digging through Missouri will make closer approach during this time, subsequently leading to increasing forcing for convection. Will also have to watch a potential mesoscale convective vortex rotating across far southeast Missouri into southern Illinois along the southeastern fringes of broad surface convergence along a larger scale low pressure system and associated trough. Cooler and relatively drier air will filter in from the west Tuesday evening and night, leading to a downward trend in precipitation at that time. There is good agreement that broad trough will be set up across the Ohio Valley, as a upper level low pushes across the Great Lakes region.
An upper low and associated trough anchors over the eastern half of the CONUS/northern Great Lakes and weak upper ridging dominates the Plains. Weak surface ridging just to the east sets up south/southwesterly winds at the surface providing a steady stream of warm and humid air. Models are having some issues with delineating between diurnal convection, southerly extent of waves pivoting around the upper trough, and what looks to be an almost feedback signal.
Moist southerly low-level flow and mid-level southwesterly flow east of an upper trough axis has advected deeper moisture into the western half of the forecast area this afternoon. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. For Tuesday, deep moisture overspreads the area with a high coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected for most of the area with the exception of the far southeast big bend farthest away from the influence of the upper trough.
Sunny and warmer today and Tuesday under upper ridge.
122 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected. A weak upper ridge will try to build back across the region with warm 500mb temps around -8C.
222 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 The focus in the short term is on the slightly cooler and more seasonable temperatures and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms each day across the central High Plains region. The northwest flow aloft will also bring an area of cooler high pressure over the region that keeps high temperatures mainly in the 80s.
Another upper level trough digs into the region mid- to- late week for another round of unsettled weather. Otherwise expect mainly dry conditions overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. The day will start out sunny with temperatures quickly rising into the lower 90s--like today.
Additional precip is expected on Tuesday along and ahead of a surface cold front.
The next wave will move into the region tomorrow morning in the form of a weakened cold front.
Upper ridge will begin to build into the region tonight, bringing warmer and drier weather.
344 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A building ridge over the west coast has put Colorado in northwest flow aloft with the upper jet to the east. Storms are currently forming over the higher terrain and pushing southeast with the mid and upper level flow regime. With decent heating through the morning hours, CAPE values are registering from 250 to 550 j/kg that could help to sustain some storms that push off the higher terrain. Instability will once again be marginal with morning cloud cover and temperatures across the plains just slightly warmer than today in addition to some warming aloft from the building ridge.
Isolated storms have developed along wind shift/surface trof near the OK/KS border. The theme of this part of the forecast remains unchanged but the timing of the higher PoPs was adjusted to slow it down a bit. A cold front has settled into far eastern Oklahoma this afternoon with a surface trof ahead of it across central Arkansas into northeast Texas.
Profiles show less than 100 J/kg CAPE between 4-10 Kft, with clouds just topping out above the freezing level (but not more then 1-2 Kft), followed by a mid level inversion.
647 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Cyclonic cold air advection over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will continue tonight and Tuesday as a deep upper-level trough axis moves slowly eastward. This feature will rotate around the western portion of the trough into central Minnesota by Tuesday morning.
These showers were moving in with another upper level disturbance, as troughing amplifies somewhat tonight over the eastern third of the lower-48. Lift preceding this trough, and a stronger than usual lower level jet (925 mb winds forecast in the 20-30 kt range) could help keep the convection going, despite less instability from the onset of a cooler night time.
656 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A cold front moving through central Illinois this evening will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.
217 PM MST Mon Jun 22 2020 High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest, resulting in above normal temperatures through the weekend. Slightly cooler conditions are possible late in the week and into the weekend as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Today's early afternoon visible satellite analysis looks nearly identical to yesterday's with clear skies across most of Arizona minus a few small cumulus fields over the highest peaks in northern and eastern Arizona. The White Mountains area might see an isolated thunderstorm or two later this week but overall moisture is severelylacking to expect any storms in the lower desert. Through this week, a ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the West creating a rather stagnant forecast.
Will leave small POPS overnight as a cold front that is currently moving through Missouri pushes into the area around sunrise. Temperatures tomorrow should be near to slightly warmer than today with highs, mostly in the middle 80s.
543 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Diurnally driven convection, aided by weak ascent aloft have supported isolated thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain. Little to no precipitation is expected from the high based storms; though, gusty winds and dry thunderstorms are more of a concern than significant rainfall. Temperatures will run well above normal during the short term, with a slight increase in high temperatures Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure nudges closer to the CWA.
532 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper trough/Canadian cut off low is slowly pushing east, north of the Great Lakes.
845 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Removed remaining PoPs for the evening as measurable precipitation looks to be a longshot as high pressure builds in from the west, and low level surface flow shifts to the southwest overnight to further dry out the lower levels. Building ridge aloft will bring dry/clear/warmer conditions tonight through Tuesday night.
834 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected. The upper trough will extend through the Great Lakes region southward into the Mississippi Valley region on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will be crossing the Mississippi and moving toward the TN Valley. Highs should be a couple of degrees cooler on Tuesday than on Monday with more cloud cover and storms around, in the lower 90s.
Diurnally driven convection, aided by weak ascent aloft have supported isolated thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain. Little to no precipitation is expected from the high based storms; though, gusty winds and dry thunderstorms are more of a concern than significant rainfall. Temperatures will run well above normal during the short term, with a slight increase in high temperatures Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure nudges closer to the CWA.