Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS HOW A FEW REMAINING STORMS OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEYOND ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. RANGING FROM NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS TO NEAR 15 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS.
532 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ AND NM ON SATURDAY.
WHICH REFLECT AN EARLY NLY DRAINAGE COMPONENT WITH INDUCED COASTAL TROUGHING WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MIXING COMMENCES. (FROM PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE VICINITY OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OFF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 56 72 55 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 54 71 50 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 55 70 51 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 46 69 42 / 10 10 10 10.
605 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT THRU THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH RIDGING AND SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S/MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN U.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN U.
752 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE LOW 50S TO THE LOW 60S. AS A POINT OF REFERENCE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
As happened the other day when cloud cover inhibited maximum insolation, temperatures were much cooler than forecast. Deterministic guidance and bias adjusted MOS/guidance also vary greatly, ranging from the lower 70s to the lower 50s in the KC area. This yields temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for today for most areas.
604 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
645 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED AND REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015/ NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT/LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY COURTESY OF A BROAD UA TROUGH COMMENCING TO IMPINGE ON THE WRN CONUS. SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH BY THE AFTN. ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG NEARING THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS WILL BE MORE SRLY AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST THERE.
700 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED AND REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
555 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
517 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY TODAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES THIS WEEKEND AS QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME IS INTERRUPTED BY A DEEP TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. THAT TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONG 170+ KT JET DIVING SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING IT OUT ALONG ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AT MID DAY SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH OF CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDDLE AMERICA.
SUNNY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE STATE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE INTO THE BAHAMAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SITUATED IN NEVADA.
MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
240 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
145 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THINGS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TNT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS HAS PWS UP TO 1. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL STEADILY PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
1201 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 Forecast concerns begin with possible dense fog tonight and then Light winds overnight with cooler surface conditions and moisture trapped near the surface could mean some areas of fog. An upper level trough in the northwest flow will move down into the central plains tomorrow. ushering in a surface cold front and providing good isentropic lift to set the stage for some heavy rain in the CWA. The front and rain move south of the CWA rather quickly by Friday morning and cooler air will advect into the area. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s with gusty northly winds on Friday but we will have dry conditions for Friday evening.
406 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A STORM SYSTEM, WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST, THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK, ALONG WITH COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FRIDAY, WITH A TEMPORARY RETURN TO SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED. OVER THE WEEKEND, SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE LULL WE'RE EXPERIENCING AT THIS TIME APPEARS TEMPORARY, AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BOTH MAKE THEIR APPROACH LATER TODAY. GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S.
424 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTHERN OHIO WILL DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND DISSIPATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO NEW YORK TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A LESS HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
351 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
351 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 (Today and Tonight) Our area will be under weak north to northwest flow aloft today and tonight, with an upper ridge from the Great Basin into northern Mexico, and an upper trough digging southeast into the upper Midwest. Highs today are expected to be mostly in the lower 90s, with weak winds. (Friday through Thursday) Stronger cold front still set to settle across West Central Texas on Friday, shifting winds around to the northeast.
257 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
Significant short wave energy accompanied with deep layer moisture embedded in a broad upper trough will move into our CWA later today.
307 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AMS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S. FOR NOW WL KEEP THE AREA IN THE ZERO CATEGORY AND HEDGE FOR THE STRONGER CAP WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSITION BACK TO A NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATE REGIME BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KGAG/KWWR/KPNC NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 916 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
330 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE. RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
242 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 One more warm/humid day ahead of the much advertised cold front which will move into region tonight. Cold front will continuing surging south through the remainder of the area around noon on Friday with precipitation along/behind the front decreasing in coverage through the afternoon hours.
449 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2015 00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OFF BOTH COASTS WHICH IS ALLOWING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH TO CARVE OUT OVER THE MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GULF. THERE IS A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL LAY UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS NUDGES TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE PUSHES THE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
SUBSIDENT WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TEMPS GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR FRIDAY. /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/ EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS TAKING UP THE ENTIRE CONUS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS MOVE INTO ALEXANDRIA AND STALL TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS STRONGER WIND SPEEDS DROP INTO THE WEST SIDE CAUSING THE UPPER TROUGH TO DIG AND SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION.
DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL STEADILY PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
652 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SFC A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FROM SRN MI TO NE IL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY/TNGT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A STRENGTHENING CDFNT DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF/CDFNT IS QUITE DRY.
506 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S FOR VALLEYS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MAINLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD.
617 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEEPER MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE OVER BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.
654 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
The better rain chances will be confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend region where there is better theta-e air and E/SE upslope flow. Friday evening another front will push south in response to a deepening upper trough across the Upper Midwest.
316 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS TAKING UP THE ENTIRE CONUS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS MOVE INTO ALEXANDRIA AND STALL TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS STRONGER WIND SPEEDS DROP INTO THE WEST SIDE CAUSING THE UPPER TROUGH TO DIG AND SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION.
321 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 Strong high pressure will continue to bring record and near record temperatures the next couple of days.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT. 08 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION AND EVENTUALLY BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE.
634 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTHERN OHIO WILL DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND DISSIPATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO NEW YORK TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH OF THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS NOW CONFINED TO EAST OHIO AND EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A LESS HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
346 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL SETUP OF THIS TROF. THEY HAVE BEEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING A WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE MEAN TROF POSITION OVER SUCCESSIVE RUNS.
436 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 UPPER AIR AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF STORMS CAN GET GOING. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND SPEED MAX MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST U. WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE PLAINS HELPING TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
UNTIL A STRONGER COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. A WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MAINLY AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE THE FLORIDA/CUBA REGION. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER-48 WILL AMPLIFY AS EX- TROPICAL SYSTEMS BECOME INGESTED INTO THE WESTERLIES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRI AFTERNOON. DRIER AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR FILTERING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP END THE PRECIP BY SAT EVENING. AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
132 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT LURKING OVER NERN CO DURING THE DAY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SWD INTO NE AND THE DAKOTAS. WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 2-3K FOOT SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN DECIDEDLY ANTI-CYCLONIC AS A 500-MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THE AIR MASS WILL WARM AS A RESULT AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. COOLER TO FINISH.
328 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
330 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SFC A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FROM SRN MI TO NE IL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY/TNGT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A STRENGTHENING CDFNT DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF/CDFNT IS QUITE DRY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY. ENERGETIC +PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE STATES AND ERN GULF COAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NC TO NRN AL WITH PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH LIKELY FROM SC TO SRN AL/MS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL NC TO CENTRAL GA TO SE LA WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN GA.
639 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A STORM SYSTEM, WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST, THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK, ALONG WITH COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FRIDAY, WITH A TEMPORARY RETURN TO SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED. OVER THE WEEKEND, SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE LULL WE'RE EXPERIENCING AT THIS TIME APPEARS TEMPORARY, AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BOTH MAKE THEIR APPROACH LATER TODAY. GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY GET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. 7C AND MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE FL PENINSULA.
THEN A COLD FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
A stronger cold front will move into northern areas around 06z with widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting areas north of I-40 through 12z. /ISSUED 242 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/ One more warm/humid day ahead of the much advertised cold front which will move into region tonight. Cold front will continuing surging south through the remainder of the area around noon on Friday with precipitation along/behind the front decreasing in coverage through the afternoon hours.
151 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR AREA AS OF 7 PM. SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED OVER ERN PA, AND THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS IS SLIDES UP THROUGH NY AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WILL ALSO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
638 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THEREFORE FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SE NEARER THE TN/VA BORDERS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LULL IN THE PRECIP AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT. THIS HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY NEAR BY COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL SMALL SCALE LOWS TRAVELING NEAR AND ACROSS THE REGION.
252 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF CENTRAL/WESTERN KY INTO THE AREA. HUGGED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. FIRST COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT TAKING MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH IT.
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS PRESENTLY. STEADY EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE. AN EARLY-MORNING UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES AGAIN BY MIDDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH SLOWLY VARYING EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
524 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
538 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. A COOL THURSDAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE WEST COAST RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MEAN RIDGING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
110 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED UNDER AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY/COOLER PERIOD.
MOST OF THE PRESSING CONCERNS ARE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON. AND OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WHERE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KICK IN THIS EVENING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR A LARGE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.