Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
655 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 The cold front continues crossing the region with rain coverage increasing across the forecast area.
901 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 A strong cold front will continue to move across the northern Middle Atlantic region this evening. High pressure well to the west will begin to ridge across our area later tonight and remain in control of the weather into the middle part of the week.
1008 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure over the midwest will move east across Ohio and Pennsylvania on Monday.
234 PM PST Sun Dec 18 2016 Freezing temperatures in the Valley for the first part of this week with dry conditions. Drier air tonight will lead to more widespread freezing temperatures by Monday morning throughout the valley. Temperatures will rapidly cool off during the evening hours with some of the outlying locations reaching the freezing mark by 10 or 11 pm this evening.
547 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Increasing mid level cloudiness in noted in the afternoon regional satellite image across the Dakotas, which is the initial surge of a much warmer air mass. Some blowing snow is likely in west central/southwest Minnesota, especially along the Buffalo Ridge where gusty winds will begin, and last through tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 20s east of the Buffalo Ridge with low to mid 20s elsewhere.
716 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure will return to the region for the first half of the week.
140 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. FOR WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
237 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. A CORE OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MID WEEK WHERE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WILL BE PUSHING SOME OF THIS COLD AIR ACROSS OUR AREA.
414 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
SO EXPECT LINGERING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT 12Z. COOLEST TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT. WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA WITH STRONG 80KT JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH ENTERING SOUTHWEST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S TONIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL LSA APPROACHES FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND PVA INCREASES AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FOOTHILLS. A FEW INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS STRONG CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. CLOSED LOW ELONGATES AND DEVELOPS TWO CIRCULATIONS AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH THIS MORNING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION TAKING OVER AND LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHWEST SD. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP EJECT THE DAKOTAS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A BOZEMAN TO HAVRE LINE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS TRY TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
426 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA.
631 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 8 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF TO 15 KNOTS OVER SAND KEY LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SAG TOWARD NORTHERN AREAS LATE.
133 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT EVEN MORE. AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT.
221 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE SE COAST TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL START AN APPROACH.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LINGERING DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO HANG TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z OR SO. NORTHEAST FLOW THEN KICKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C TONIGHT.
430 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. T-STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CHARLOTTESVILLE THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT.
455 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WINDY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE DRYLINE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THOUGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
316 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
104 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
321 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TRACK OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
OVERALL BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING WOULD BE THE TEMP SPLITS WITH VALLEYS RESIDING IN THE LOWER 50S AND RIDGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHILE IT REMAINS MORE MIXED ON THE RIDGES.
146 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY. WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK.
237 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THIS CWA.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE IN TODAY, WE MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI, WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO TONIGHT, DUE TO PRESENCE OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF SOURCE REGION IN THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA (IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT). AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA CONTINUES TO INCREASE, BECOMING LIKELY OVER WESTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RESULT OF THIS MERGER DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INLAND SE GA.
A large trough of low pressure will continue across the western U. A few mid level low pressure systems will develop and circulate their way through the Great Basin into the central and southern Rockies.
522 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TO 08Z WEDNESDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. /ISSUED 455 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/ AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WINDY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE DRYLINE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THOUGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
A TEMPORARY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
355 AM PDT TUE APR 26 2016 DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH WEAKER WINDS.
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WILL COME INLAND TODAY BUT WILL ALSO WEAKEN. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD SRN CALIF WEDNESDAY AND FORM A CLOSED LOW IN SRN NEVADA. THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS.
A LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TX TNT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPR CLOSED LOW EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS PERFORMED BETTER OF LATE ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
310 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016 THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE UT AND CO BORDER SOUTHEAST OF VERNAL THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA REINFORCING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLATEAUS. SO ONLY MINOR ROAD IMPACTS AREA EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS PASSES. WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ERODING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING.
318 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A SFC TROF. LOOKING FOR FINAL CLEARING BY TUE WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WELL. DML THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
648 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE SE COAST TODAY.
The upper level ridge of stable air will bring sunny conditions and near normal temperatures across the forecast area today. A small upper level disturbance of low pressure will slide south from the Pacific Northwest into NorCal Wednesday.
For tonight, the cold front that is draped across the area, from southwest to northeast, is expected to sag to and stall along the I- 70 corridor. Wednesday afternoon looks like a decent setup for 500 mb closed low tornadoes. The warm front will be draped across northern MO with decent instability along and to the south of it. The upper low should be to the west over NE.
1213 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DANGEROUS TSTMS IN THE HIGH INSTABILITY/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW. EXPECT FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO HELP INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT. SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW. KEEPING EASTERN COLORADO ON THE WARMER AND RELATIVELY DRY SIDE DURING THE DAY. MOST LIKELY ON THE EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS OR IN THE WARMER AIR OVER THE PLAINS. BUT THIS IS ABOUT WHEN THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING UP ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS FROM WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND PUTS COLORADO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
553 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. AND HAD DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD COME ON SHORE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA.
440 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. AND HAD DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD COME ON SHORE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 6500 FEET BUT SNOW LEVELS INTO CONVERSE COUNTY MAY DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT AS THERE IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THAT AREA. OF COURSE IF TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST THEN HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES. NOT CONFIDENT IN ANY ONE MODEL AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY THEN HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR ALONG THE PINE RIDGE AND THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER WY.
106 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL AREA WEATHER ALL WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
653 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. A CORE OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MID WEEK WHERE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WILL BE PUSHING SOME OF THIS COLD AIR ACROSS OUR AREA.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SRLY FLOW LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO A GOOD GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
359 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH A RESIDUAL VORT LOBE BEING SHEARED OUT ACROSS ND. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
630 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
344 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE COMPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SPRING STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY.
1141 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016 THE UPPER LOW WAS WORKING INTO SW UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEAR GJT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORTED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING SETTING OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WORKS ONTO THE NE- KS PLAINS. BRIEF RIDGING HERE LIMITS SHOWERS TO AFTERNOON MAINLY MTN CONVECTION.
ANY FOG WILL BE VERY PATCHY AND LESS OF A CONCERN COMPARED TO THE LOW CEILINGS PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS AT RESPECTIVE TERMINALS.
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE STRONGER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND AREA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE VFR TODAY (BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ON TUESDAY TOO). AND DID INCLUDE GUSTS IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND EXPECTED TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT.
609 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 UPDATE CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
257 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TRACK OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
955 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Weak high pressure builds across the region tonight. A weak upper level trough may bring a few brief showers mainly to the north and mountains Thursday.
Instability increases into Thursday as thermal ridge moves into southwest MN.
However, could see redevelopment closer to daybreak across portions of Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and Southwest Arkansas due to the presence of an upper-trough across Oklahoma and central Texas. With cloud cover in place and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, not much more cooling expected.
Precip chances will also become possible again late tonight through Thursday with the greater chances over the low ceiling locations of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. /Issued 352 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/ Overall synoptic pattern similar to yesterday, with elongated high sitting over the southeast states and western Atlantic and trough beginning to dig into the Pacific Northwest.
A weak upper level trough over the western states will keep fair weather and near seasonal temperatures through the forecast period. Expect alternating intervals of slightly warmer/cooler temperatures for inland locations, meanwhile, coastal locations will see little to no day to day variability. An upper level low is over northern Manitoba with a trough extending into Idaho and western Montana.
Moderate flash flooding will still be possible over the warned areas mainly on some of the larger creeks, as the heavy rain has moved off the locations with the highest totals and radar estimates.
Upper level trough has reached Lower Michigan. with the associated short wave currently over our CWA just ahead of the trough axis. plenty of residual low level moisture and some lingering upper support ahead of the trough axis. this convection has been rather weak and disorganized thanks to further weakening wind fields as high pressure begins to build into the Western Great Lakes region. Low temps tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s. High pressure will continue to build into the Western Great Lakes on Thursday. Expect another warm and humid day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Large trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over northwest Canada will dig into the Great Lakes region over the next few days. This trough will be driven by a 110 kt, 250 mb jet streak.
A moisture plume associated with the right flank of a stalled broad trough continues to extend from Baja California to the New England States.
/issued 244 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/ A mid level trough, that has been hanging out just east of the forecast area the last few days, continues to slowly edge westward today as upper ridging over the SE ConUS builds into SE TX. As a result of increased moisture, lift and instability, showers and thunderstorms continue to affect portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and SE Permian Basin this afternoon. Not completely certain on how far west the upper trough axis will shift by tomorrow but for now, best chances look to be along and east of a Hobbs to Van Horn line.
All indications are that they will be MVFR based on the low clouds from yesterday and current model data. A well defined upper level low along the New Mexico and Colorado border was continuing to spin slowly to the east and northeast while deeper moisture flow remained to our southeast. On Thursday, we expect the upper low to curl out far enough into the central plains to allow better moisture recovery and easing of the downward forcing over our area.
Towards morning convection along cold front builds southward reaching the western fa towards daybreak. Tonights updates will revolve primarily on timing of pcpn into the FA ahead of approaching cold front. High pressure over eastern SD will shift east and set up return flow into the eastern Dakotas this evening as a cold front currently extending from northeast MB through southwest Sask drops south into northern tier CONUS. cold front will drop into far northwest ND this evening, with some showers or convection out ahead of the front reaching the RRV possibly by midnight.
Proton A trough spins off the polar vortex and descends south through the Canadian Prairie Provinces, sending a cold front this evening into Northeast Montana. Very warm air that was in place will create unstable conditions when the cold front works it way into the region. The GFS shows a secondary cold front sneaking in from the northwest in late afternoon, which may bring rain showers and possibly thunderstorms.
954 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 Thunderstorms have intensified along the United States-Canadian border since 0130 UTC thanks to increasingly focused low-level ascent associated with an approaching cold frontal zone. An approaching cold front will then be the focus for thunderstorms across northwest and west central North Dakota this evening spreading southeast across the state by Thursday morning. Cooler more stable air to the north will limit the thunderstorm potential north.
(Issued 146 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016) Temps across the cwa were in the lower 90s with dewpoints between 65 and 70 degrees. Much of the sern US is now under an upper ridge, however local radars were showing some sct shra/tsra mainly along the GA/AL border, probably due to orographic or differential heating.