Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
129 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over Quebec and associated trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning. A mid-level ridge axis pushes eastward this evening as a low pressure system moves into northern Minnesota. A band of precip spreads into far western Upper Michigan by late this evening out ahead of the center of the surface closed low. Hourly precip chances then reach central Upper Michigan shortly after midnight with the low center then over the Twin Ports.
Do expect things to stay dry through at least the first half of the week as an upper- level ridge develops to our west. Temps will be on the cooler side of things through the first half of the week, with highs generally in the 60s to low 70s.
The easterly component will be accompanied by modest cool advection, with models showing a net decrease of 3-4 C at 850 mb versus Sunday, with afternoon temperatures trimmed to the lower to mid 60s.
(This afternoon through Monday night) A short wave sweeps across the Panhandle and into OK today as high pressure builds in from the west. Ridge axis becomes centered over the Rockies Monday then flattens out Monday night as flow becomes zonal.
At the surface, a 1008mb low center was located over northeast Wyoming with a cold front trailing southwest into northeast Utah.
This relatively dry weather comes courtesy of a short wave ridge now moving through the area. It won't last long, as the ridge will move out to the east. The surface front associated with this low will move onshore Monday afternoon.
1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Summary: A low pressure system bringing rain/snow mix to the Northland is expected to begin this evening through Monday night. A low pressure system associated with an upper level trough will move into the northern Midwest this evening. Rain and snow mix during the day and all snow overnight is expected with a slight possibility for freezing rain, but is unlikely as midlevels should stay saturated and below freezing.
However, guidance has another chance of Fgen developing in SE ND and moving around the low to the Bemidji area before falling apart. Expect poor visibilities and heavy snowfall rates to be possible throughout the night as the Low traverses the area. With this Low, the snow will not be constant.
A warm front lifting north from the southern half of the ArkLaMiss region will provide moisture and instability to generate storm development throughout the evening. By mid-week, a weak surface front associated with a low pressure over the Great Lakes region is expected to drop into the far NW portions of the CWA, but will offer a fairly low chance of precipitation.
For our southern counties, however, the rain and storms chances will persist through much of the afternoon as a surface warm front was in the vicinity, providing support for the ongoing activity and further development later. Lows tonight will range from near 50 far northwest to the lower 60s southeast.
354 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Dry weather under high pressure today before rain and snow returns Monday with crossing low pressure. By evening, winds will begin to veer to the east, resulting in downslope wind gusts of 20-25 kts in the ridges of PA and WV. Throughout the night, high clouds will move in from the west ahead of a deepening trough. Consequently, the lowlands should stay above freezing, but the higher elevation ridges and northwest PA will drop below.
Amounts by sunrise will range from 1 to 2 inches across the area, which could create some slippery spots for the morning commute, particularly on untreated roads, parking lots, and bridges. Then, the cold air filtering in behind the system/cold front in the afternoon will produce an additional round of scattered snow showers.
An upper-level trough, located over New England will continue to lift northeast. Another larger trough, currently over the north-central US, will take on a negative tilt as it digs southeastward during the period. As it does so, it will effectively lift the boundary north and allow for a cold front to sweep through the region by Monday morning. By late evening into early Monday morning, the cold front will approach the region. The front pushes through the area by mid morning, giving way to cooler and drier conditions. By the early morning, ceilings will lower to IFR as a cold front pushes through the area.
Monday will be warmer with less marine layer clouds.
(This evening through Monday) Some isolated storms are currently pushing out of our area as the cold front has crossed into San Antonio's CWA. The rockies look to create a low level blocking pattern on the surface pressure which will allow our easterly winds to pick up to between 10-20 mph. Weak upper level ridging sets up for the day Monday which should keep conditions dry and skies mostly clear. Daytime highs will be on the cooler side as the easterly winds push the 850mb thermal ridge to our west.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off after midnight from west to east as the trough pivots through the Tennessee Valley and into the southern Appalachians.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today through tonight: Low pressure over southeast Montana has brought a strong lift zone and plenty of moisture to it's northwest quadrant over northeast montana this morning. Monday to Monday night: Ridge will move across the areas with a chinook arch clouds. This will bring highs above freezing to most of the area leading to limited snow melt.
Warmer and breezy/windy with shower/thunderstorm chances chances mid/late week. High pressure will move from the Plains into the Ozarks later Monday- Monday night setting up frost/freeze potential.
/issued 852 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022/ Upper level ridging from Mexico spreads across the Gulf of Mexico as a weak short wave trough over northeast FL slips offshore during the day. At the surface a cold front will reside along the AL/GA/FL line as Atlantic high pressure. ridges over the Gulf. Winds/seas no more than 15 knots/3 feet as high pressure continues across the waters today. This high pressure slides away overnight as a cold front with some showers/storms moves south and out of the state during Mon. High pressure then builds in from the north and shifts east through midweek with winds/seas up to 20 knots/6 feet on some of the waters.
1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will enter the region here on Easter Sunday. For most locations north of I-10, this will help to keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than they otherwise would be.
Warmer and breezy/windy with shower/thunderstorm chances chances mid/late week. High pressure will move from the Plains into the Ozarks later Monday-Monday night setting up frost/freeze potential.
The cold airmass will produce lows near or below freezing Monday night.
High pressure builds into central SD on Monday with a drier air mass and lighter winds. With the lower dewpoints and clearing skies, lows tonight and Monday night will fall sharply below normal into the upper teens to 20s.
A cold front wl move in from the nw this evening and bring a wind shift to the nw at GLH-GWO-HKS-JAN by 06Z. The cold front should clear the se by 11Z.
This will result in slightly cooler than normal temperatures through Monday afternoon. Highs tomorrow will remain about 5 to 10 degrees below normal (in the low 60s). Below normal temperatures (again nearly 5 to 10 degrees below) in the low to mid 20s is expected tonight. Low temperatures will rise back into the low to mid 30s which is near normal for Monday night as weak warm air advection returns to the region.
1213 PM PDT Sun Apr 17 2022 High pressure will provide for dry weather along with a warming trend through Monday.
Cloud cover will play a key role in determining whether temperatures fall below freezing tonight and how much frost develops. However, if cloud cover redevelops and overspreads the area tonight then temperatures will likely struggle to fall below freezing and frost may not develop. At this time, wind speeds do not appear high enough (winds diminish a bit in the afternoon as high pressure moves in) to produce anything more than moderate fire danger, but if stronger winds than currently forecast develop, then very high fire danger will be possible.
The biggest issue will be how quick the low clouds come back over southeast KS which could affect how quick overnight temps fall. Strong warm/moist advection is expected to continue across the Plains for Thu as a more robust upper trough starts to dig over the West Coast. Better storm chances Fri look to be over the High Plains as rich low level moisture continues to work west with a dryline setting up over Western KS. At this time Sat looks like our best chance for severe storm potential as the upper trough starts to directly impact the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A midlevel trough will continue to move across the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast through the period while ridging amplifies across the western U. Cooler temperatures are expected for Monday due do increased rain chances and cooler air filtering in behind the aforementioned front. Monday night will be slightly cooler with lows in the mid 60s to near 70 across the Rio Grande Valley.
358 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 (Issued 357 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022) Tonight and Monday: Low pressure tracking from eastern ND to northern WI Monday afternoon will drag a cold front across southern WI. It was tough to trick our forecast to say all snow for this event because temperatures are so close to freezing, but this is a typical springtime snow where there is plenty of cold air aloft to allow for wet bulbing and evaporative cooling for snow. The upper low takes its time exiting the Upper Great Lakes area, so snow showers could linger until midnight, along with the gusty winds.
(Today through Monday afternoon) An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains today with westerly upper winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The upper trough will dig southward as it moves east on Monday. A cold front will move into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico tonight and Monday with east winds. High temperatures on Monday are expected to range from the 70s across the northern Permian Basin, northern portions of Lea County, and the higher elevations of the mountains to the triple digits across portions of the Big Bend.
101 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Dry weather under high pressure today before rain and snow returns Monday with crossing low pressure. By evening, winds will begin to veer to the east, resulting in downslope wind gusts of 20-25 kts in the ridges of PA and WV. Throughout the night, high clouds will move in from the west ahead of a deepening trough. Consequently, the lowlands should stay above freezing, but the higher elevation ridges and northwest PA will drop below.
With precip tapering off late tonight, the influx of slightly cooler/drier air from the NW will allow early morning temps Mon to fall mainly into the lower 50s/near 50F. A large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states will then begin to build SE going into the new work week. Afternoon temps will again trend seasonably cool, with highs in the lower/mid 60s before overnight temps fall more into the upper 30s/near 40F by early Tue. High pressure will then gradually move eastward across much of the SE region Tue/Tue night, with mostly sunny/clear skies and seasonably cool conditions expected into early Wed. Highs on Tue look to remain in the lower/mid 60s, while lows that night fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s for most spots.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, high pressure will spill to the southeast through the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. The lower heights and northwest to north steering should allow thunderstorms to spill to the south across the Upper Keys.
This line of storms has developed near and just behind a cold front. The storms behind the cold front are elevated above the boundary layer, but the 12Z FWD RAOB indicates a sizable amount of MUCAPE available for these thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures can be expected tonight with lows forecast to drop into the mid-40s to lower 50s across the region tonight. Abundant sunshine (after some brief morning clouds) will make for a mild but still warm day on Monday with highs forecast to climb into the low to mid-70s.
A weak cold front approaches the area for tomorrow, with some rain possible in the morning across the Nature Coast and some additional convection expected in the afternoon with the boundary and the sea breezes.
1004 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 A persistent trough to the east of the Keys appears to be tilted, with the lower tropospheric portion at or below 700 mb seemingly most pronounced from central Cuba to near or just east of Andros Island, and the portion 500 mb and above over the Central Bahamas. As is typical west of such troughs, column moisture was less with precipitable water near 1. coast more embedded in the westerlies shears the upper portion northeast of the Bahamas, whereas the lower tropospheric cyclonic maximum tends to lag, most pronounced between central Cuba and Andros Island before kicking out to the northeast during the day Monday.
A ridge of high pressure in the area will continue into cause dry conditions into tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures today will rise a few more degrees with most northern Nevada locations reaching the low 60s and central Nevada areas rising into the upper 60s/70s. The ridge will be pushed eastward by an approaching trough causing breezy southwesterly winds tomorrow afternoon and early evening. The highest gusts are expected in western Humboldt county during the afternoon hours ahead of the approaching trough. The trough is expected to reach far northwestern Humboldt county in the mid-evening hours bringing rain and snow showers.
--Warmer temperatures coming mid to late week. As the low pressure over the northern Great Plains continues to dive southeast through Minnesota today into tonight, the associated trough deepens as it progresses eastward into Monday bringing rain and snow out ahead of it, as we have seen throughout the day today. Behind the departing system northwest flow returns with ridging building to the northwest. This flow will both reinforce our cooler temperatures as well as increase winds late tonight into Monday.
High pressure starts to build in overnight, which will turn winds northerly early Monday. A large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states will then begin to build SE going into the new work week. Afternoon temps will again trend seasonably cool, with highs in the lower/mid 60s before overnight temps fall more into the upper 30s/near 40F by early Tue. High pressure will then gradually move eastward across much of the SE region Tue/Tue night, with mostly sunny/clear skies and seasonably cool conditions expected into early Wed. Highs on Tue look to remain in the lower/mid 60s, while lows that night fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s for most spots.
After several locations getting below freezing this morning, the afternoon sunshine will warm up the Panhandles with temperatures expected to be into the 70s this afternoon. With good radiational cooling, overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. A perturbation in the mean H500 zonal flow will help to usher in some cooler air from the north. Scattered cloud coverage under SE flow will try and develop under the higher Td values trying to enter the region tomorrow afternoon. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be near average for mid April with values ranging from the lower to mid 40s.
Northeasterly winds are expected late tonight through Monday behind a cold front, with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, mainly west of MFE. /issued 254 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A midlevel trough will continue to move across the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast through the period while ridging amplifies across the western U. Cooler temperatures are expected for Monday due do increased rain chances and cooler air filtering in behind the aforementioned front. Monday night will be slightly cooler with lows in the mid 60s to near 70 across the Rio Grande Valley.
633 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 VFR this evening except in/near SHRA/TSRA that are developing ahead of a cold front.
Winds have slowly started to diminish which has allowed for most of the High Wind Warnings to expire except for the Arlington wind prone area. Wind gusts have remained in the 60-65 mph leading up to the product expiration, with observations showing high winds, the High Wind Warning was extended a few more hours for Arlington.
Dry conditions across the area under the influence of the ridge. The next area of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest by Monday afternoon, with showers moving into eastern Oregon late Monday night.
A weak cold front will approach east-central Florida by the morning hours and progress east to southeastward into the afternoon.
708 PM MDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Have allowed the high wind warning and wind advisory to expire. Cold front has made its way through western SD, behind which pressure rises were 5-6 mb/3 hr this morning, but have since decreased. As high pressure settles over the area this evening, winds will diminish.
625 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022 (This evening through Monday) Some isolated storms are currently pushing out of our area as the cold front has crossed into San Antonio's CWA. The rockies look to create a low level blocking pattern on the surface pressure which will allow our easterly winds to pick up to between 10-20 mph. Weak upper level ridging sets up for the day Monday which should keep conditions dry and skies mostly clear. Daytime highs will be on the cooler side as the easterly winds push the 850mb thermal ridge to our west.
Monday will be a dry and warmer day. This warmer weather is being ushered in via southwest winds from a low pressure system in the eastern pacific.
Mid to high clouds will increase heading into Tuesday as warm air advection sets up amidst weakening upper ridging.
227 AM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Synoptic Setup: Currently a trough is dipping down through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A ridge runs from Arizona northward through the Intermountain west and British Columbia. Today through Tuesday: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the ridge out west comes by and crests across the region.
The cold front was still to the nw of GTR-MEI-PIB-HBG at -530Z. This cold front wl continue pushing se and bring a wind shift at the eastern MS TAF sites. Behind the cold front IFR cigs wl prevail wl prevail until after 15Z. A warm front lifting north from the southern half of the ArkLaMiss region will provide moisture and instability to generate storm development throughout the evening. By mid-week, a weak surface front associated with a low pressure over the Great Lakes region is expected to drop into the far NW portions of the CWA, but will offer a fairly low chance of precipitation.
However, the low-level air mass is quite dry, and evaporational cooling may be sufficient to bring a majority of the column below freezing. Broad ridging is then expected to replace the departing system, with warm air advection as flow switches from northwesterly to southerly.
348 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had the cold front across our southeast; nearly along the Interstate 59 corridor. No precipitation was noted along the front on local radars so the cold front is expected to clear our CWA during the next hour or two without any additional precipitation in our CWA. This help maintain cooler than normal temperatures as well.
335 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Key Messages: - Freezing temperatures expected again tonight into early Tuesday morning. Areas of northern and northeastern Missouri have fallen to/below the freezing mark, likewise will keep the freeze headline in place for this morning. Look for temperatures to fall to or below freezing in most areas of the CWA overnight tonight - warming above freezing by mid-morning Tuesday. Pattern undergoes changes by mid-week, bringing in warmer conditions and chances for precipitation.
1220 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 (This evening through Monday) Some isolated storms are currently pushing out of our area as the cold front has crossed into San Antonio's CWA. The rockies look to create a low level blocking pattern on the surface pressure which will allow our easterly winds to pick up to between 10-20 mph. Weak upper level ridging sets up for the day Monday which should keep conditions dry and skies mostly clear. Daytime highs will be on the cooler side as the easterly winds push the 850mb thermal ridge to our west.
Brisk NW winds bring cooler temperatures into the area today. Areas that saw snow mixed with rain could see icy spots at times during the morning commute as refreezing of surfaces is possible. By the afternoon skies gradually clear out and temperatures reach into the low to mid 30s. 925mb winds ahead of the system are out of the SE and bring slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s helping to gradually melt at the snowpack across the area.
As high a ridge continues to build in behind the exiting upper trough, however, lingering showers should wrap up entirely over the next couple of hours. Expect wind gusts especially across the higher terrain to be able to reach into the 20 to 30kt range the rest of the day before winds turn calmer around/after sunset. Decreasing winds, clearing skies, and a cooler airmass over the region will all contribute to efficient radiational cooling tonight leading to overnight lows in the 20s. High pressure starting building into the region Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A strong mid-level subtropical ridge will retrograde westward over the southern tip of Baja California today. A backdoor, weak surface cold front is forecast to push through the RGV and deep south Texas by this afternoon. As for temperatures, near normal high temperatures are expected behind today's weak cold front front, upper 80s(east)/lower-mid 90s (west). Tonight's lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night's lows, but still rather warm and muggy with temps dropping in the mid-upper 60s (north) to lower 70s (along the Rio Grande). Tuesday's high temps should be about 2 to 5 degrees cooler than today, generally mid-upper 80s to lower 90s out west, mainly due to increased cloud cover and precipitation chances continuing into the afternoon hours.
Brief gusty north to northwest surface winds behind the trough will quickly dissipate late this afternoon/early this evening. Surface ridging will back into the forecast area overnight as the center of the high moves southward to the central Great Plains, and the ridging is expected to stay in place through the day Monday as lee troughing across New Mexico will be slow to develop and strengthen. A synoptic upper level ridge axis will pivot east across our area throughout the day Tuesday.
It will be a bit warmer this afternoon over the region, but still below normal for this time of year.
winds will shift to the N behind a cold front as it continues to make its way through the area and eventually off the coast.
357 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Periods of rain and snow return today and continue into Tuesday with crossing low pressure and following northwest flow.
MVFR is expected to set in area wide over the next couple of hours in advance of an approaching cold front.
348 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had the cold front across our southeast; nearly along the Interstate 59 corridor. No precipitation was noted along the front on local radars so the cold front is expected to clear our CWA during the next hour or two without any additional precipitation in our CWA. This will help maintain cooler than normal temperatures as well.