Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Freezing fog will persist for a couple more days. I also included the wording of dense freezing fog. This is an area on the fringe of the low clouds visible on satellite. Another concern for where dense fog develops is for icy conditions with temperatures sitting in the low to mid 20s. /SVH 06Z TAFS: Widespread low stratus and freezing fog will remain over much of eastern Washington all of the Idaho Panhandle overnight into Thursday. Temperatures in the low to mid 20s may result in a light glaze of ice where freezing fog is thicker (visibility < 1/2 mile).
1203 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 The stout mid level cyclone continues to be centered over Nebraska at this hour and is expected to drift east over to the mid/upper Mississippi Valley region later tonight and into the Great Lakes region by Friday. Toward tomorrow morning, the low level winds will be cranking up along the western fringe of counties with 40 to 45kts at 850mb by around 10z.
(Today and tonight) Cool and quiet today as surface ridging across the central High Plains continues to funnel moderately strong west-northwesterly flow and dry continental air in. As temperatures aloft continue to get even colder, fully convective boundary layers will only be able to get temperatures to reach a point that is a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Thanks to the high pressure at the surface, cloud cover will be limited to nonexistent.
Winds should start to slack down this evening as snow chances decrease with the low moving further to the northeast.
Much drier & cooler conditions are expected through the aftn. 00Z synoptic & GOES-E water vapor analysis indicates deep longwave trough analyzed over the Great Plains, with cold core moving into the Mid W. Ridge axis is analyzed off to the E over the Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic, with subtropical ridge centered over the Bahamas. With cooler thermo (i. Mean ridging will persist over the Gulf of AK & N Atlantic near Greenland. This synoptic pattern favors very slow migration to the E & mean longwave trough over a majority of the nation. Lows near to slightly below normal are expected, in the low-mid 30s.
The snow will taper off to drizzle/freezing drizzle this morning as the dry slot advects in from the south. The dry slot will lift north throughout the day, with wrap around moisture returning as the low tracks east later this afternoon and through Friday.
623 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today and tonight) The cold front continues to move through the area this morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, some being strong to severe. High temperatures today were realized ahead of the front for many areas between midnight and 3 AM and peaked in the high 60s and low 70s. Day time temperatures will be a be a few degrees cooler peaking in the mid to low 60s with clear skies. Significantly cool overnight lows start tonight with temperatures in the low 40s and high 30s.
312 AM PST Thu Dec 15 2022 A little warmer today, then a little cooler inland and warmer for coastal areas on Friday with offshore flow.
As high pressure moves east midday a weak south to southwest wind is forecast to develop, and with clear skies and continued dry air in place a nice diurnal rebound in temperatures is forecast. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer Friday morning compared to this morning. A weak cold front is forecast to move into the area on Friday.
221 AM MST Thu Dec 15 2022 While the stacked surface and upper low will be centered over Minnesota and Wisconsin today and tonight, its broad circulation will continue to extend as far west as eastern Montana with some wrap around moisture.
Not expecting any precipitation today as a result of the dry air come the cold front that had past through. Tonight, temperatures are expected to drop into the low 50s, but could also drop into the upper 40s in the Northern Ranchlands as well.
Northeast Kansas remains under the influence of a large, nearly vertically stacked low pressure system located over the Midwest states. This will continue to be the case over the next few days, as the low slowly weakens and inches eastward. The tight pressure gradient on the west side of the low is keeping a steady northwest breeze in place, with winds likely to gust 25 to 35 mph at times today and tomorrow.
The CAM's and global models show the boundary becoming diffused due to the low-level jet and upper-level support remaining well north of the surface front. The impediment of the cold front due to surface friction of the water and land resulted in reducing Pops across the Keys late tonight through Friday, with Pops late tonight tapered down to (40%) and (50%) on Friday, about a 10% decrease across the board over the next 24 hours. The increase in moisture and clouds will cause humid conditions with dew points in the lower 70s and daytime high temperatures near the upper 70s to low 80s.
Parent upper low over northeast NE will meld in with intense secondary wave lifting up through ne IL attm and essentially reform into a deep stacked low over WI Fri aftn. Small scale perturbations follow through srn flank of WI cntrd upper low Fri. Otherwise deepening lake thermal trough will aide in developing lake banding late day over nrn Berrien of which will turn more vigorous overnight. WI upper low will shift ewd through nrn lower MI Sat. Upper level block from ern Canada through Greenland along with concurrent steep upper ridge amplification into the Arctic ocean complicate wide ranging model guidance. Brief clearing within intense post frontal dryslot will be transient early as upstream stratocu was spreading quickly east out of IL in wake of cold front.
449 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today) The last of the rainfall will soon exit northeast AL as the cold front presses east. This as a strong upper low spins across the upper MS River valley.
(12Z TAFS) A strong cold front is pushing closer to west central and southwest Florida this morning. Showers and storms will move through the waters today ahead of a cold front.
The latest cluster analysis and ensemble guidance reveal better confidence in the blocking high pressure to elongate and retrograde NW through the weekend.
525 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today through Friday Night ) Big closed low aloft will slowly wobble from the upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes the next couple of days. Cyclonic flow around the low will result in breezy west winds today and Friday.
Colder air will arrive seeing the highs stay below freezing for the next several days. Highs will be below freezing with the low down into the positive to negative single digits.
Outside of breezy north winds, cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend.
(Today through Friday Night ) Big closed low aloft will slowly wobble from the upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes the next couple of days. Cyclonic flow around the low will result in breezy west winds today and Friday.
431 AM MST Thu Dec 15 2022 Deep upper low remains over the region with gusty northwest winds continuing to support blizzard conds across much of the western SD plains. This system will continue to impact the region into Friday, with snow and blowing snow continuing as a secondary impulse will rotate around the upper low and support renewed chances for snow today, esp this evening. Another 1-3 inches can be expected with this system on the SD plains, esp near the Pine Ridge where upslope northerly flow will support up to 6 inches of localized snow from around Batesland east to around Martin. Quite weather on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
A few thin high clouds are breaking through the eastern Pacific ridge and spilling into NorCal, but overall skies are clear early this morning. Winds will drop off a bit overnight tonight in the valley allowing minimum temperatures to once again dip down to around the freezing mark, or slightly below. Quiet and cool weather will continue through the weekend as we'll remain between the eastern Pacific ridge and deeper troughing to the east.
250 AM PST Thu Dec 15 2022 Dry and cooler than normal conditions will continue through the end of the week. Freezing temperatures are likely in the San Joaquin Valley for much of this week. A ridge of high pressure is dominating the weather pattern over Central California as clear and cold conditions persist. As the air travels over the ridge pattern, it picks up cold air that continues to surge into California and providing the area with freezing overnight temperatures.
526 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Cool and quiet today as surface ridging across the central High Plains continues to funnel moderately strong west-northwesterly flow and dry continental air in. As temperatures aloft continue to get even colder, fully convective boundary layers will only be able to get temperatures to reach a point that is a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Thanks to the high pressure at the surface, cloud cover will be limited to nonexistent.
209 AM MST Thu Dec 15 2022 Deep upper low remains over the region with gusty northwest winds continuing to support blizzard conds across much of the western SD plains. This system will continue to impact the region into Friday, with snow and blowing snow continuing as a secondary impulse will rotate around the upper low and support renewed chances for snow today, esp this evening. Another 1-3 inches can be expected with this system on the SD plains, esp near the Pine Ridge where upslope northerly flow will support up to 6 inches of localized snow from around Batesland east to around Martin. Quite weather on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
Max temperatures will range from the low 40s in northeast OK and northwest AR to upper 40s across southeast OK.
Highs on Friday will range from the mid 40s along the Red River to mid 50s across Central Texas as a cold front move across the region.
1123 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) A broad, upper level trough is over most of the country. Low temperatures Thursday night/Friday morning will a little cooler than those this morning. A cold front will begin moving into the area on Friday and will result in high temperatures mostly in the 40s for the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front is currently located across the Big Country and will continue to sag south overnight. Winds are light from the northeast behind the front and temperatures are slightly cooler. The aforementioned weak cold front will continue to slowly sag south and stall somewhere near or just south if I-10 Friday afternoon.
205 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 A cold front will pass through the area tonight, introducing partial clearing and an increase in westerly winds. A large low pressure system over the north central United States will move through the Great Lakes this weekend. generally west of the Blue Ridge. Most folks saw a cold rain, but closer to the Blue Ridge and into the Highlands temperatures were cold enough for freezing rain. northeast along the Blue Ridge Parkway. Going forward, expecting partial clearing tonight as westerly winds develop in the wake of a passing surface cold front. An upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes will crawl to the east through the weekend.
Like yesterday, bitter cold swept the high country this morning. The coldest high elevation basins dipped into the negative teens, while most the rest of the high country bottomed out in the single digits. Gusty northerly winds at the tallest mountain peaks kept temperatures relatively warmer, but created biting wind chill values. Expect highs in the 30s along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with 50s throughout the lowland deserts of central Arizona. As of 1:30 AM MST, our office in Bellemont reached -1 degrees and could possibly get cooler than this. Many other locations across the High Country are seeing/will see single-digit temperatures. The only outlier to this is near Snowbowl, where some small- scale influences have led to slightly warmer temperatures and stronger north-northeast winds.
/12 (Now through Friday) Aloft, a generally zonal flow returns to the region and persists through the period as the trough that brought severe weather across the south lifts off to the northeast through the day today. At the surface, the cold front continues advancing east, with high pressure building into the region from the west in its wake. Much drier and cooler air filters into the area through Friday, and temperatures finally start to trend colder through the period. Low temps waking up this morning will also be cooler with low to upper 40s northwest of I-65, and upper 40s to low 50s southeast.
246 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Deep and slow moving low pressure will continue to impact the region tonight and Friday as wrap around moisture overtakes the Northland, yielding continued light snow across northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota tonight. Some drizzle or freezing drizzle may mix in where ice crystal presence is reduced in the column. As colder air wraps into the region on Friday, lake effect processes will become more efficient, with an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow forecast for the higher terrain of the North Shore.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The upper-level low pressure system that brought and continues to bring severe weather across the Deep South remains nearly stationary over the Upper Midwest. Another chilly night is expected as most locations fall to near or below freezing.
Discussion: Recent satellite trends show that the overcast skies have been gradually burning off from west to east this afternoon, however, a reinforcing cold front quickly progressing across the region(just exiting the Cumberland Plateau region around 19Z) is leading to a slight uptick in SCT low-level clouds in areas that underwent some clearing. Current surface observations at the Morristown airport show dewpoints in the low 40s where as obs around the Plateau have fallen into the mid 30s. Low pressure along the East Coast will strengthen and amplify the pressure gradient into Friday.
(This afternoon through Friday) A broad trough will move across the Ohio Valley through the short term. with Alabama positioned in the base of this trough. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 30s.
A strong cold front continues to push eastward through Florida through the day. The front will be located over southern Florida by early Friday morning allowing for high pressure to ridge in from the northwest.
1043 AM PST Thu Dec 15 2022 Dry and cooler than normal conditions will continue through the end of the week. Freezing temperatures are likely in the San Joaquin Valley for much of this week. A ridge of high pressure is dominating the weather pattern over Central California as clear and cold conditions persist. As the air travels over the ridge pattern, it picks up cold air that continues to surge into California and providing the area with freezing overnight temperatures.
Deep upper low remains over the region with gusty northwest winds continuing to support blizzard conds across much of the western SD plains. This system will continue to impact the region into Friday, with snow and blowing snow continuing as a secondary impulse will rotate around the upper low and support renewed chances for snow today, esp this evening. Another 1-3 inches can be expected with this system on the SD plains, esp near the Pine Ridge where upslope northerly flow will support up to 6 inches of localized snow from around Batesland east to around Martin. Quite weather on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
Visible satellite is currently depicting abundant sunshine along the Florida Keys and temperatures have jumped to near 80 degrees into the lower 80s. A potent cold front is moving across the Florida peninsula. Moderate southeast breezes will prevail this afternoon ahead of a weakening cold front that will transverse portions of Florida.
1256 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 GOES-16 Satellite trends/12Z upper air analysis places a broad upper level trough encompassing a majority of the Continental United States with an embedded upper level low located over Iowa.
1106 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Cool and quiet today as surface ridging across the central High Plains continues to funnel moderately strong west-northwesterly flow and dry continental air in. As temperatures aloft continue to get even colder, fully convective boundary layers will only be able to get temperatures to reach a point that is a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Thanks to the high pressure at the surface, cloud cover will be limited to nonexistent.
Only slow changes this period as the low waffles a bit to the southeast before heading eastward into northern WI Friday into Friday night.
(Through Tonight) Surface cold front will move southeast across area this afternoon, and to the southeast this evening. Most of the energy available for thunderstorms passed to the southeast with the prefrontal trough, but an isolated storm on the front itself can not be ruled out. High pressure will build from the west Tonight, providing clearing skies from west to east. Below normal temperatures are expected Tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 40s.
1051 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 GOES-16 Satellite trends/12Z upper air analysis places a broad upper level trough encompassing a majority of the Continental United States with an embedded upper level low located over Iowa.
With ample sunshine available today, temperatures have been able to reach the lower 80s, which is above normal for this time of year. The cold front currently draped across the Florida peninsula will continue to move southward tonight.
Expansive area of ascent and associated precipitation band noted on IR imagery with embedded vorticity lobes pivoting along the north-northwestern periphery of the low into central ND and SD.
Temperatures tonight will be around freezing with highs tomorrow a couple degrees cooler compared to today. A weak cold front will move through during the day on Friday which will cool things off in time for the weekend.
1122 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today through Friday Night ) Big closed low aloft will slowly wobble from the upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes the next couple of days. Cyclonic flow around the low will result in breezy west winds today and Friday.
We could see some additional cloud cover across the North overnight, as a result of the main parent upper low pushing across the Upper Midwest States and Great Lakes Region. High pressure will build across the region overnight and persist through Friday resulting in mostly dry conditions and much cooler conditions overnight.
242 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 The big upper low is over Minnesota Today while the intense westerly upper jet is focused from the four corners region into the Red River valley of TX/OK. A bit of a trough over the central Rockies is advecting some mid to high level thick cloud cover eastward into west central KS.
1024 AM MST Thu Dec 15 2022 Deep upper low remains over the region with gusty northwest winds continuing to support blizzard conds across much of the western SD plains. This system will continue to impact the region into Friday, with snow and blowing snow continuing as a secondary impulse will rotate around the upper low and support renewed chances for snow today, esp this evening. Another 1-3 inches can be expected with this system on the SD plains, esp near the Pine Ridge where upslope northerly flow will support up to 6 inches of localized snow from around Batesland east to around Martin. Quite weather on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
300 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Tonight and Friday: Mainly dry conditions will persist over the next 24 hours as surface ridging builds across the Gulf Coast and Deep South. These clouds may try to precipitate, but they will be fighting dry air in the low levels, with 30s dewpoints at the surface. The guidance is showing a similar pattern compared to yesterday with current model guidance highlighting a large closed low spinning over Wisconsin.
Snow shower potential continues as the low waffles through the area.
Except for the Lower Treasure Valley, temperatures will remain just below freezing this afternoon. Lower Treasure will warm above freezing aided by northwesterly surface winds.
535 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Deep and slow moving low pressure will continue to impact the region tonight and Friday as wrap around moisture overtakes the Northland, yielding continued light snow across northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota tonight. Some drizzle or freezing drizzle may mix in where ice crystal presence is reduced in the column. As colder air wraps into the region on Friday, lake effect processes will become more efficient, with an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow forecast for the higher terrain of the North Shore.
Sunny skies dominated the region behind last nights cold front. The cold front at 21z was located from the SC coast southwest through FL and into the southwestern Gulf.
518 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) The upper-level low pressure system that brought and continues to bring severe weather across the Deep South remains nearly stationary over the Upper Midwest. Another chilly night is expected as most locations fall to near or below freezing.
620 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Through Tonight) Surface cold front will move southeast across area this afternoon, and to the southeast this evening. Most of the energy available for thunderstorms passed to the southeast with the prefrontal trough, but an isolated storm on the front itself can not be ruled out. High pressure will build from the west Tonight, providing clearing skies from west to east. Below normal temperatures are expected Tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 40s.
Low pressure centered over the Twin Cities will remain nearly stationary overnight.
Tomorrow, there will be gradually increasing northerly to northwesterly flow aloft and weak ridging upstream over the Pacific Northwest. It will still be partly cloudy over the high country though, and should get to mostly clear over the plains.
Surface ridging will linger near or just south of the forecast area through much of the short-term portion of the forecast. Aloft, a steady trough will remain in place across the area the eastern CONUS.
The big upper low is over Minnesota Today while the intense westerly upper jet is focused from the four corners region into the Red River valley of TX/OK. A bit of a trough over the central Rockies is advecting some mid to high level thick cloud cover eastward into west central KS.
745 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 Forecast remains on track as cold front pushes south of the region. Sunny skies and much cooler on Friday as Northwest around 10 mph hold Max temps into the lower 60s across SE GA and middle 60s across NE FL. (Through Tonight) Surface cold front will move southeast across area this afternoon, and to the southeast this evening. Most of the energy available for thunderstorms passed to the southeast with the prefrontal trough, but an isolated storm on the front itself can not be ruled out. High pressure will build from the west Tonight, providing clearing skies from west to east. Below normal temperatures are expected Tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 40s.
Persistent non-active weather pattern continues as dry air and clear skies associated with a ridge of high pressure aloft remains in place. Ridgetop winds will reach 30 mph through Friday. The latest cluster analysis and ensemble guidance reveal better confidence in the blocking high pressure to elongate and retrograde NW through the weekend.