Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low ceilings are expected to return to MAF later this afternoon with the arrival of a cold front and a northerly wind shift. After fog clears around 15Z, a cold front which is now located across the TX Panhandle will reach the northern CWA border. Upper-level lift on the lee side of the associated trof will slowly approach the region. GFS develops a W sfc wind w/passage of the upper trof faster than NAM which promotes much warmer temperatures. Decided to blend w/warmer guidance due to the weak nature of the front and clearing skies due to subsidence behind the upper trof.
Strong low-level cold advection along with a tight pressure gradient in the wake of the low has led to gusty northwest winds in the 30-40 mph range at times. Despite plenty of sunshine, a cool airmass and limited vertical mixing under the high will keep highs mainly in the 30s on Friday.
The forecast remains on track for today with highs still expected to reach the low/mid 60's as southwest flow continues ahead of the cold front over the Mississippi valley. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 62 55 63 40 / 40 70 80 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 58 52 62 39 / 60 70 80 90 30 Oak Ridge, TN 49 56 51 61 38 / 70 70 80 90 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 54 47 57 37 / 60 70 70 90 60.
As the upper ridge begins to flatten and shift eastward, upper flow will turn more WSWrly.
Some light returns are currently moving across the area but most places are staying dry as the lowest levels of the atmosphere are still very dry. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 62 55 63 41 / 20 80 80 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 58 52 61 39 / 40 90 80 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 50 56 51 60 38 / 70 90 80 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 55 47 56 37 / 40 90 80 80 60.
A cold front currently extends from northeast Illinois through southeast Missouri and into north Texas. The cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and moving into the region. The cold front will remain over north Mississippi on Friday with more showers expected for much of the day. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front but a little warmer ahead of it with highs in the upper 40s to mid 60s. The cold front will start to pull away from the region Friday night with rain beginning to taper off from west to east.
Latest surface analysis suggests cold front is hung up across far southeast Oklahoma, where some locations are still in the upper 50s to lower 60s with southeast winds. Short term model guidance combined with latest radar imagery would suggest that northeast Oklahoma will get a lull by late this evening, with more showers possible tomorrow morning as upper trough axis arrives. Overnight lows in the upper 30s look good for the northeast portions of Oklahoma, where current temps are already in the lower 40s.
This will signal a shift to more to orographic precipitation versus dynamic forcing as the low progresses further east. Temperatures cool slightly on the back side of the low as flow turns northwesterly with dry conditions expected to start the weekend.
457 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 Water vapor satellite imagery showing a closed low near Las Vegas with diffluent flow aloft over Colorado. A short wave trough over northwest New Mexico will track east-northeast and form a new upper level low over southeast Colorado late tonight. Overall dynamics are weak, so snowfall amounts across the lower elevations are expected to be light, 2 inches or less. Snow may linger into Friday afternoon in parts of the mountains where northwest ridgetop winds produce orographic lift and light snow. Expecting lows in the lower to mid 20s across most of the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 415 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Two primary systems are expected to affect the PAH forecast area in the short term, the bigger one being tonight as a wave of low pressure moves northeast along a cold front that will be sinking southeast across the lower OH Valley.
536 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 A cold front was positioned across southern Missouri this afternoon, roughly from Branson to Salem (2pm). South central Missouri, or areas near West Plains, Eminence, and Alton could receive the highest amounts of rain tonight.
A warming trend commences Friday as the deep layer ridge shifts further Se with the approach of a cold front.
Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI 326 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 Cloudy skies, gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of the daylight hours as the cold front exits the lakeshore area.
Aloft, a mid level trough was moving over the Upper Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes region. A brief ridge will move over the Northern Plains tonight with a modest open wave trough upstream over the Northern Rockies. Surface pressure falls ahead of this oncoming trough will bring warm west/southwesterly low level winds through the day Friday with sustained winds of 15-20 mph likely.
Leftover snow over southern Campbell County and of course, over the higher Black Hills. Latest water vapour loop had upper ridge flopping over into the northern Rockies as upper low churns over the far southwest.
Drier and warmer weather will begin to develop later on Friday and last through the weekend. Rain and snow decreases west to east behind this low with the last few shower over the Chuska and White Mountains ending late Friday afternoon.
317 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 The main concern in the short term period is with the chance of snow across southwest Nebraska and the low temperatures tonight. As for lows overnight, increased lows slightly, mainly across the southern CWA, by a few degrees, as cloud coverage overnight should keep temperatures a little warmer.
Echoes currently on radar are showing the moisture aloft but most of that having a tough time making it to the surface with the drier air still in the low levels.
Two primary systems are expected to affect the PAH forecast area in the short term, the bigger one being tonight as a wave of low pressure moves northeast along a cold front that will be sinking southeast across the lower OH Valley.
212 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 A weak upper ridge over the area over the next few days will provide continued sunshine and mild conditions. Afterwards, an upper system breaks the ridge down on Friday from western Canada.
506 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 A cold front will pass through the forecast area Friday and stall just south of the Mason-Dixon line.
At this time, a cold front is slowly approaching Middle Tennessee from the NW, but hasn't quite reached PAH.
359 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 A weak upper ridge over the area will provide continued sunshine and mild conditionsover the next few days. Afterwards, an upper system breaks the ridge down on Friday from western Canada.
424 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 A cold front will pass through the forecast area Friday and stall just south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Rain and drizzle ended mid to late morning across the area, with extensive low clouds ahead of and behind the cold front. Most locations received between a quarter of an inch and a half inch of rain in the past 24 hours, with the higher amounts in the north. Quite the change in temperatures today, with highs in the 50s occurring in the morning ahead of a strong cold front. Latest HREF and hi-res guidance depicts significant drying in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere tonight, with clouds clearing from northwest to southeast tonight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s by sunrise Friday. ERVIN MVFR clouds that moved in behind a cold front earlier today will continue through the first part of tonight, before clearing arrives around midnight.
656 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 A cold front will pass through the forecast area Friday and stall just south of the Mason-Dixon line.
634 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue into this evening as a cold front moves through. Cooler and drier air will then filter in behind this front later tonight into Friday.
A few remnants of clouds remain across the northwest, but these will diminish shortly in the low level warm advection. Aloft, a mid level trough was moving over the Upper Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes region. A brief ridge will move over the Northern Plains tonight with a modest open wave trough upstream over the Northern Rockies. Surface pressure falls ahead of this oncoming trough will bring warm west/southwesterly low level winds through the day Friday with sustained winds of 15-20 mph likely.
651 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Upper level ridging from the S Gulf over the FL Peninsula with cirrus streaming over ridge along the N Gulf coast this evening.
544 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 The main concern in the short term period is with the chance of snow across southwest Nebraska and the low temperatures tonight. As for lows overnight, increased lows slightly, mainly across the southern CWA, by a few degrees, as cloud coverage overnight should keep temperatures a little warmer.
Some light returns are currently moving across the area but most places are staying dry as the lowest levels of the atmosphere are still very dry.
701 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure over the region will move offshore tonight.
Near daily impulses will traverse the region, although weak forcing and lack of sufficient moisture will support dry trough passage through Saturday. Warm trough now pushing into central Canada will support WAA over most of the Northern plains today. Nearly the same story for Sat, albeit a few more clouds and warmer thermal fields.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 55 63 41 53 / 70 80 80 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 52 61 39 51 / 70 80 80 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 51 60 38 51 / 70 80 80 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 47 56 37 47 / 70 80 80 60 10.
1128 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 The main concern in the short term period is with the chance of snow across southwest Nebraska and the low temperatures tonight. As for lows overnight, increased lows slightly, mainly across the southern CWA, by a few degrees, as cloud coverage overnight should keep temperatures a little warmer.
The anticipated cold front is moving across the northern part of Val Verde and Edwards Counties based on surface observations and Doppler radar trends. Since the cold front is pushing across the area early this Friday morning with clouds staying in place through early this afternoon, high temperatures have been adjusted to the cool side of things. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s across the Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor to 70s along and south of highway 90.
Rain and drizzle ended mid to late morning across the area, with extensive low clouds ahead of and behind the cold front. Most locations received between a quarter of an inch and a half inch of rain in the past 24 hours, with the higher amounts in the north. Quite the change in temperatures today, with highs in the 50s occurring in the morning ahead of a strong cold front. Latest HREF and hi-res guidance depicts significant drying in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere tonight, with clouds clearing from northwest to southeast tonight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s by sunrise Friday.
1022 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure over the region will move offshore tonight. The next chance of rain will be late Friday through Saturday night as low pressure develops in the Deep South and lifts northward. The associated cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
The one exception will be along the immediate coast where onshore flow should persist, especially south of the Cape, keeping min temps in the low to mid 60s. On Fri, as the high shifts farther east over the Atlc, winds will become south and southeast. This will produce slightly warmer temps in the upper 70s/near 80 which is slightly above normal for late Nov. High pressure will push off the southeast U.
Forecast Confidence Increasing for Snowfall during Holiday Heights are starting to rise this evening, indicating the building of high pressure over the area.
1013 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Mean layer ridging centered over Central America reaches northeast across the Gulf of Mexico. Mid and upper-level heights are rising across Florida (see 00Z RAOBS), which should lend to a repositioning of the developing low-level subtropical ridge. Breezes may try to decouple near sunrise for the Lower Keys. From synopsis, high pressure will move southeast off the coast of the Carolinas this tonight, then elongate into an east- west ridge axis over North Florida Friday. The ridge axis will settle down the peninsula and reach South Florida on Saturday.
The cold front, sagging slowing into central Texas just north of the Hill Country at this time, will slowly push south tonight and be near the northern counties by 18Z and near the coast by 00Z Saturday.
/issued 156 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/ Cold front currently is pressing south through the northern Permian Basin with much cooler and much below normal temperatures behind it. Meanwhile an upper level low pressure area churning across southern Nevada will push quickly east to the western high plains by morning. Large scale lift will increase tonight as the upper low approaches and upglide will increase along and north of the cold front to produce the chance of showers and non severe thunderstorms. Prefer the lower nam guidance on temperatures these periods especially as low clouds may hang tough.
326 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 One more dry day today, then the next chance of rain will be late tonight and into Saturday evening as low pressure develops in the Deep South and lifts northward. The associated cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
/issued 651 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019/ Upper level ridging from the S Gulf over the FL Peninsula with cirrus streaming over ridge along the N Gulf coast this evening.
1209 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue into this evening as a cold front moves through. Cooler and drier air will then filter in behind this front later tonight into Friday.
22/06Z TAF Cycle A cold front is currently moving over Nwrn AR, and is expected to slowly progress Swrd Thurs night/Fri morning. A trof and associated closed upper low will move across the Rockies tonight into the central Plains tomorrow. At the surface a cold front has been slowly advancing southward across the Plains, and has nosed its way into the NW portions of the state.
The clouds will gradually break up as the 925 and 850 mb ridge axis moves southeast through the region from mid-morning into the early afternoon. Low temperatures on Saturday morning will be mainly in the teens in central and north-central Wisconsin and in the lower and mid-20s elsewhere. With the low levels very dry, just expecting some periodic mid and high clouds.
Forecast soundings indicate the low levels quite dry so not expecting any accumulations.
We are starting off with high pressure across the western Dakotas, and the exiting low across the Upper Great Lakes. Will continue with the forecast of teens for lows, with slightly cooler readings across the James River Valley. With these downslope winds in place, I kept winds a few degrees warmer than would otherwise be expected for much of Roberts, Grant, and eastern Deuel Counties Friday night into Saturday morning. At 500mb, much of this period will be marked by a ridge over the forecast area.
244 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Broad upper level ridging remains over Florida and the southeast U. An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary near LA/AL on Saturday morning and move northeast toward the mid-Atlantic states through the weekend.
Latest surface analysis suggests cold front is hung up across far southeast Oklahoma, where some locations are still in the upper 50s to lower 60s with southeast winds. Short term model guidance combined with latest radar imagery would suggest that northeast Oklahoma will get a lull by late this evening, with more showers possible tomorrow morning as upper trough axis arrives. Overnight lows in the upper 30s look good for the northeast portions of Oklahoma, where current temps are already in the lower 40s. The low clouds will prevent any one location from getting too cold tonight, with much lower readings on Saturday morning expected.
As the upper ridge begins to flatten and shift eastward, upper flow will turn more WSWrly. Dry conditions will continue through Friday with the CWA under the influence of ridging. A trough and associated cold front will move through on Saturday, bringing with it widespread showers and the possibility for isolated thunderstorms.
1136 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 A cold front was positioned across southern Missouri this afternoon, roughly from Branson to Salem (2pm). South central Missouri, or areas near West Plains, Eminence, and Alton could receive the highest amounts of rain tonight.
Any lingering showers tonight and tomorrow morning will become mainly confined to the southern portions of central Indiana as a cold front sinks farther south into the area.
The cold front is moving across Lake Erie and high pressure will build into the state today.
Areas of light snow will linger across central and portions of southwest Kansas through late morning as short range models indicate an upper low drifting slowly east across western into central Kansas today, then finally through eastern Kansas into Missouri tonight. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures are likely Saturday a prevailing northwesterly downslope flow ushers warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures climbing well above 0C.
Drier and warmer weather will begin to develop later on Friday and last through the weekend. The low pressure system causing the stormy weather will push east overnight and tomorrow with only slight chances for showers during the early morning hours tomorrow. Rain and snow decreases west to east behind this low with the last few showers over the Chuska and White Mountains ending late Friday afternoon.
953 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2019 Have added a good amount of freezing fog to the grids for tonight, particularly across portions of Phillips and Valley Counties. -Mottice A weak upper ridge over the area will provide continued sunshine and mild conditions over the next few days. Afterwards, an upper system breaks the ridge down on Friday from western Canada.
The first wave of rain had already begun to spread into Middle Tn this morning ahead of an approaching cold front located along the Ohio River. A low pressure wave along the front will focus this morning's heaviest rainfall along and north of I-40. Temperatures will hold mostly in the low to mid 50s today under gray skies. However, overcast skies with sprinkles and patches of drizzle will linger through the rest of the day and into Saturday night as a slow mid/upper trough moves overhead. The trough will also bring chilly air with Saturday night lows in the 30s.
Rain chances will increase from northwest to southeast Friday evening and night as a cold front approaches.
Also had to adjust temperatures down in the northwest where WTX Mesonet sites show readings between 34 to 36 degrees which was 6-8 degrees cooler than the current forecast had. This may help graupel reach the ground but do not expect any other wintry precipitation as dewpoints are 34-35 degrees so there is little room to wet-bulb cool temperatures below freezing.
1253 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 High pressure over the region will move offshore tonight. The next chance of rain will be late Friday through Saturday night as low pressure develops in the Deep South and lifts northward. The associated cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
/issued 422 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019/ The latest surface analysis places a cold front from Cleveland, OH back through Dyersburg, TN and back through Little Rock, AR. Temperatures north of the front are in the lower 50s with low to mid 60s south of the front. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through late morning across much of the Mid-South as the cold front slowly sags southward. The main upper level low over the Four Corners is expected to eject quickly across the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight and help push the front south of the Mid-South by early Saturday morning.
Highs today will be on the cooler side across the southern portion of the CWA with temperatures only in the upper 30s to low 40s. Across the northern Sandhills and north central Nebraska highs will reach the low 40s which is near normal for the area. However, the latest GFS and ECMWF 00z model runs have started to track the low slightly farther north then the previous 12z run. Also to note there is discrepancies between the EC and GFS in the intensity of the Low as well, the GFS keeps the low in more of an open wave pattern, while the ECMWF is a little more robust and has more of a closed low pattern. The shifting of the track from model runs and inconsistencies in the pattern of the low between the models continue to keep forecaster confidence low.
/issued 403 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was moving south and southeast through the I-10 corridor region and should be exiting our forecast completely by about 4 am. As of 1 am, temperatures had fallen into the mid 40s north of the cold front, while temperatures south of the front were in the low 60s. Slow clearing of clouds and continued cold air advection will result in cool highs today in the low 50s in the Big Country and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Latest 22/00Z probabilistic data is hinting at an embedded vort max wrapping around the main upper level low with perhaps some localized lift.
Increasing south-southwest winds today and warmer air at the 925/850 mb layer will advect eastward with westerly winds in that layer. Net result will be temps this aftn in the lower to middle 30s snow areas to upper 30s/40 in non-snow areas in SE ND/WC MN. Suspect the higher terrain areas along the escarpment from Walhalla to west of Grand Forks will be warmer than the immediate Red River valley. Satuday will see high temps above freezing once again with highs in the 35-40 range.
Upper ridge present over the northern Rockies providing a clear sky. As the wave moves into southern Saskatchewan, a cold front will get pushed into the forecast area, turning winds northwest and provide a brush of cooler air.
345 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019 Latest sfc obs/mesoanalysis places the cold front in the Big Bend Area, in the wake of an upper trough over the MS Valley. Instead, a stratus deck should bank up against the mtns for at least today, socking the lowlands in and yielding temps lower than what most models are calling for. Tue, a fast-moving trough will move thru the region, dropping a cold front into the area and taking temps closer to normal Tue afternoon. Upstream of this trough, a massive secondary trough is forecast to develop over the PacNW and amplify down the west coast, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under progressive SW flow aloft.
2) Colder Today But Dry & Warmer Over The Weekend. Tonight'll be very chilly as large high pressure spreads from the Dakotas into KS. This would sweep a weak sfc trof across KS early Mon morning that'll promote compressional warming across the KICT Neighborhood. Mon Night's lows will be tricky as a warm front develops across Southern KS.
956 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Increasing chances for rainfall through late tonight and into Saturday evening as low pressure develops in the Deep South and lifts northward. The associated cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
438 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Cooler and drier air today with afternoon clearing.
For today, a rather quiet day is on tap with temperatures warming to slightly above average, although areas affected by the recent snowfall will stay a bit cooler.
High pressure currently over the region will transition to northwesterly flow tonight.
/issued 406 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019/ Upper low situated across SERN CO this morning is expected to translate eastward to the Ohio Valley by mid-day Saturday.
There is potential for highs to get into the lower 50s over the plains.
Satellite additionally depicted mid/upper low spinning over eastern Colorado.