Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Upper level trough axis is making its way across the Central Plains. Mid-level frontogenetic forcing still giving us showers in the south/southeast ahead of the cold front. More showers behind cold front, with stratus.
548 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Periods of rain will continue through Thursday night with crossing waves of low pressure.
A dry subsident air mass under the deep layered ridging will support warm and dry conditions across the entire forecast area through the period with clear to partly cloudy skies expected.
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 At 315 PM, a cold front continued to move eastward across the Northland. Temperatures warmed into the lower 50s ahead of the front, with gusty southwest winds.
Main trough axis approaches this evening with most short range guidance indicating scattered SHRA developing after 29/00Z. LIFR conditions likely by daybreak for central OK but possibility of SHRA with passage of trough axis adds enough uncertainty to be slightly more optimistic with cigs/vsby. Rain chances remain tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region.
Clouds will return overnight and into Thursday, as the main low pressure system and cold front move through the region.
All snow at the higher elevations and webcam at Muddy Pass in Rabbit Ears Range showing a good coating of snowfall. Thinking that downslope off Cheyenne Ridge will dissipate any precip as it moves south, and so far trends have borne this out. There should be a little less moisture and wind to work with this time, and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.
650 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure offshore will continue dry weather and above normal temperatures through Thursday.
344 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Under southwesterly deep layer flow aloft, pcpn associated with a trof of low surface pressure has been on the light side so far with this event. Another surge of rainfall is possible after daybreak as a surface cold front sinks through the region. PoPs are forecast to drop off significantly by Thu evening with the arrival of drier air on northwesterly low level winds, though clouds may be a bit slow to clear until the mid level trof axis moves through Fri. High pressure at the surface will keep our region cool and rain-free through Fri night.
217 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure offshore will continue dry weather and above normal temperatures through Thursday.
Hi-res HRRR model showing another round of convection moving into eastern Oklahoma overnight with incoming upper trough but given uncertainty in coverage and timing have left mention out of current TAFs.
216 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Upper level trough is approaching west Texas with some instability cumulus clouds currently developing in the mountains and immediate adjacent plains. Expecting that an isolated shower or thunderstorm could be possible across much of the forecast area late this afternoon as the cold pool aloft associated with the upper trough drifts overhead (-22 C at 500 millibars) with low level heating enhancing instability. Looks like a return to quiet weather again Thursday and the next several days as this trough passes by.
324 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A weak disturbance embedded in SW flow ahead of the main upper level trough approaching from the west has developed an increasingly sizable area of showers mainly west of I-55 and moving northeastward this afternoon. A persistent broad trough over the central and eastern U. Numerous disturbances embedded in this trough will potentially affect central and southeast Illinois with periodic precipitation chances, while the temperatures will remain cool for the season.
/issued 1123 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ The morning sfc analysis indicates that the weak cold front has been reinforced SE to near a LFK, to N of a Many, to N of IER, to near MLU line as of 16Z. 8 inches should result in widespread 3-6+ inch QPF amounts, with some of the high res progs suggesting an axis of 7-8" totals over Deep E TX and the Srn/Ern sections of Ncntrl LA.
549 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Update regarding the rest of this evening/tonight: Would hesitate to call it a "major overhaul", as we were not expecting much precip to begin with, but did make some tweaks to the earlier-issued forecast through the rest of tonight (through 7AM Thursday): 1) Tried to refine/concentrate the highest rain chances (PoPs) within the narrow corridor currently evident on radar and tracking southeast mainly within the southeast half of the CWA. Upper level trough axis is making its way across the Central Plains. Mid-level frontogenetic forcing still giving us showers in the south/southeast ahead of the cold front. More showers behind cold front, with stratus.
230 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure off the SE US Coast will continue to advect warm moist air across the region.
The upper ridge remains anchored near 130 W through Thursday.
1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Surface ridging has settled in over the area, and is expected to drop temperatures north of HWY 36 near freezing this morning. The trough over the southwestern U. Tonight, the upper level trough will move overhead, while the weak surface front passes through the forecast area.
Have therefore generally kept PoPs on the low end, except for mid to late this afternoon when a s/w track far enuf north to bring a wave of precip into srn portions of the CWA. The chance of rain spreads north across the CWA thru the evening hours as the main trof approaches and large scale lift spreads across the region. That said, given the low level moisture depicted by mdls, mainly the nrn half of the CWA may see more drizzle than rain.
/issued 928 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ A dry subsident air mass (via 12Z raob data) under deep layered ridging covering the area will support pleasant dry warm weather with ample sunshine across the entire forecast area the remainder of today. As the ridge axis sinks further to the south tonight into Thursday lighter winds are expected across all of the waters as the flow veers to the southeast and south.
1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A Pacific cold front moves through this morning. With an upper low parked over Hudson Bay pushing a large scale trough into central Canada and US, Nebraska remains in northwest flow aloft for the next several days. ridge and surface cold fronts result in a couple decent shots of precip and winter-like conditions. A weak H7 wave passes through the area behind the cold front. Made little change to highs as they're toward the cooler end of guidance, which is reasonable given cloud coverage and weak CAA.
1250 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Updates this morning mainly for a small area of sprinkles and showers developing near and west of the lower Illinois River in warm advection ahead of the approaching trough/cold front to the northwest. Steady stream of rain continues along and south of I-70 early this morning, as an area of low pressure rides along the front over the Ohio Valley. However, as the upper trough over New Mexico begins to swing east, another surge of moisture will be advancing northeast. At the same time, the wave over the Dakotas will push a cold front into central Illinois by late evening. Overall upper pattern will feature broad troughing over the central U.
1125 AM MDT Wed Mar 28 2018 The region will remain on the SW periphery of a deep upper trough centered over interior Canada. A stronger western NOAM ridge topping impulse will force a vigorous cold front into the region by the end of the work week, with temperatures expected to be 15-25 degrees below seasonal averages by this coming weekend.
High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures through Thursday.
230 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Surface map this afternoon has a low pressure system over western Ontario with a cold front extending from northeast to south central MN. The cold front pushes through this evening, but expected to come through dry with just some increase in cloud cover. High pressure builds in Thursday, settling in overhead Thursday night. Thursday expected to be sunny but a bit cooler with highs in the 40s. Partly cloudy skies will prevail Thursday night with the high overhead along with light winds. Otherwise, plan on lows in the lower to middle 20s.
318 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure off the southeast U. Low pressure riding up the front will further assist in generating a more concentrated area of rainfall late tonight into Thursday. Rain will then continue Thursday night as the parent upper trough advances from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley.
As for snow, there will likely be a change over across the Palmer Divide this evening as temperatures fall into the lower 30s, but accumulations should remain at an inch or less.
Today will see a lull in the rain as the cold front moves into northern Kentucky.
256 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Clouds have begun to clear from west to east as the axis of the upper trough pushes eastward. The trough will bring behind it another front tomorrow afternoon. The front will be weak and should only help keep highs in the low to mid 60s. The upper flow will become more northwesterly as an upper ridge sets up over the west coast.
With, warm afternoon highs, and dewpoints in the low 30s to low 40s, the low level sounding profiles suggest a weak inverted V profile will be in place, reaching up to 5-10kft AGL. For that have reduced the pops overnight, but as the trough axis moves through tonight, we expect to see isolated to scattered showers across the Panhandles. Cooler temperatures will result tomorrow, but will not be much different from today, as this next upper level trough moves quickly across the Panhandles. The southwest Panhandles won't see much difference in the temperatures that occurred today, as the cooler air will barely clip that area.
Very limited moisture tonight with a cold front moving through and will have some slight chance pops as the front moves through the area. Could be some light freezing rain with this as well, but will be very brief across the central and east. No big changes made to the going forecast and this cold front is pretty dry with a light lake effect pcpn component late tonight into Thu morning, but NAM bufkit soundings show an inverted-v look to the low levels which will limit amounts of snow and pcpn. A cold front moving through late today will bring MVFR conditions tonight at all sites. Strongest winds will be Sat afternoon and evening with gales up to 35 kts across eastern Lake Superior as low pressure system tracks across the Upper Great Lakes.
149 PM MDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Ridge holds off the coast through the periods keeping us in the nw flow with embedded disturbances through the period.
643 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure to the north will keep northerly flow in the region which will in turn keep the temperatures below normal though Wednesday.
High pressure then leads to dry weather for today and Wednesday. likely associated with upper trof axis. Valley fog will form overnight tonight, beginning over the mountains, before becoming more widespread throughout the lowland valleys as well in the early morning. A cold front will linger just south of the area, keeping temperatures below normal.
947 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, returning dry conditions back to the area. The high will extend across the region tonight into Wednesday.
720 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Early this morning high pressure was centered near Sioux City, IA and a weak cool front was positioned from near Hudson Bay across northwest Ontario and into southern Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan. Nudged temperatures across our southern forecast area a little warmer overnight with minimum values in the upper 50s south to the low 50s northeast. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler with highs from the upper 60s northeast to the upper 70s over northwest Wisconsin.
845 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Weak back door cold front will continue to progress through the CWA today increasing moisture and keeping temperatures below normal.
High pressure then leads to dry weather for today and Wednesday. Valley fog will form overnight tonight, beginning over the mountains, before becoming more widespread throughout the lowland valleys as well in the early morning. A cold front will linger just south of the area, keeping temperatures below normal.
945 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017 A weak trough along the West Coast will bring dry southwest flow aloft through Wednesday. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A low pressure trough along the west coast this week will battle for position with a sprawling east-west oriented 500 mb ridge centered over Texas. Except for a thin sliver of moisture in southeast flow between 650-700 mb, the trough is winning this morning with dry southwest flow throughout the column.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 69 82 70 / 40 10 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 82 68 / 20 10 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 65 82 68 / 10 10 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 60 81 63 / 10 10 20 10.
724 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 MVFR cigs this morning should rise to VFR in the afternoon as drier air builds in from the north behind a cold front. Clear conditions are expected for TYS and TRI tonight, but clouds may spread back into CHA late as the low level flow turns southeasterly.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: NW flow aloft will continue to keep temperatures cooler than normal across the forecast area. This will bring a cold front south across Northeast Montana today. Air mass becomes somewhat unstable this afternoon and evening which will allow for a chance of thunderstorms mainly in the east where the cold front will be. It looks to feature upper level northwest flow with a ridge situated across the Pacific Northwest.
A strong upper level ridge will dominate the weather pattern this week, keeping a warm dry air mass over Western Washington. An upper level trough and weak cold front could reach the area late this weekend.
612 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure was centered over the upper Midwest early this morning.
516 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure now centered southeast of the region, with an area of low pressure over southeast Alberta. Northwesterly flow will continue to keep the area cooler than average through the rest of the week, with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The upper level wave to the northwest of the region and an associated cold front will slide southeast across the region late tonight and Wednesday. The cold front will pass through most of the CWA during the morning and across south central SD during the afternoon hours, with breezy northwest winds developing behind it.
/issued 345 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017/ Latest sfc analysis shows the front well to the S-SW, generally backed up against the higher terrain. This feature will also be the primary focus for further convective development today, before tapering off as the upper ridge begins building back into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico from the west.
A trailing mid-level trough will result in the redevelopment of isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, especially across higher terrain areas. While there is marginal surface-based CAPE on 00Z NAM profiles, EL temps generally warmer than -10C, so have left thunder mention out of the forecast. Additional isold -SHRA possible Wednesday aftn with slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s and isold low 80s across the valleys of Rutland/Windsor counties. Lingering showers, mainly along the axis of an associated boundary from the low will mainly effect areas around the international border.
A upper level trough center across northern California will send a series of weak weather disturbance across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through midweek. High pressure aloft will expand slowly northward across the region late in the week.
A upper level trough center across northern California will send a series of weak weather disturbance across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through midweek. High pressure aloft will expand slowly northward across the region late in the week. Under a weak ridge pattern, with mostly westerly flow aloft and the stronger jet positioned across central and southern Utah, the steering flow better supports thunderstorms today across Northern Utah. With increased moisture and cloud cover today, temperatures will again be on the cooler side of seasonal normal. Northern Utah will remain a bit on the cooler side due to cloud cover and showers.
903 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 A large area of high pressure over the Atlantic remains the main player in the forecast. The ridge axis is stretching across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf of Mexico. An inverted trough and tropical wave currently are moving westward near Puerto Rico, and may be the next weather maker for the Keys. The ridge is the main catalyst for the forecast, which will remain unchanged for the most part. GOES-16 air mass and nighttime microphysics imager suggest that there is a bit more Saharan dust leading the inverted trough, and because of this, have adjusted rain chances to a slight chance overnight.
Quiet weather will continue the next couple days under high pressure. High pressure centered over the Middle MO River Valley will extend ewd from IA to the Mid Atlantic States for later today and tonight. Light winds will become southerly as high pressure shifts east of the area.
1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will dominate the remainder of the day through tomorrow. High pressure will keep the weather quiet for the Midwest for the short term. in the low to mid 50s, well below climatological norms.
CAM models showed possible redevelopment of isolated convection in SE MT in the inverted trough close to 18Z. The clouds were moving quickly E which will allow sunshine to boost temperatures into the 80s, before the cold front moves into the area. A cold front was pushing into north central Montana this hour. Today will be warmer in a weakly pre-frontal environment. The chance of precipitation Wednesday will be confined to the higher terrain and upslope locations of the foothills. The end of the work week will see conditions slowly warm across the forecast area as a stubborn ridge of high pressure over the Pacific northwest translates east into Montana by the weekend.
/Issued 312 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017/ Unseasonably mild weather on tap today behind cold front that has pushed south of the Red River.
High pressure ridge axis originally north of the area yesterday, has shifted back south and resides near the Cape this morning. Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast to low-mid 90s over the interior. Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic has shifted back south near the Cape today.
937 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine today. A ridge of high pressure builds tonight.
Meanwhile, the visible satellite and mosaic radar imagery depict a broad but weak but stacked H850-500 low over SE TX as well which is attached to a weak upper trough extending NE into extreme Nrn LA atop the sfc front in place. The short term progs are in reasonable agreement this morning with additional convection developing this afternoon as the stacked SE TX low drifts E into the lower Sabine Valley, establishing weak convergence in the destabilizing air mass near and just S of the H850-700 trough and in VC of the stationary sfc front.
702 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, returning dry conditions back to the area. The high will extend across the region tonight into Wednesday.
/Issued 939 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ It's a quiet evening, as winds have dropped off behind cold front, which is now south of the Red River. It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow as well.
After a minor lull into the late evening hours, forecast soundings again show strong mixing and gust potential into the lower 40s north 06z-15z, which is the same time the MSLP gradient strengthens. 5-1km layer winds also depict gust potential in at least the lower 40s. The mixing may be tempered slightly however as deep forcing increases lift on the back side of the Great Lakes cyclone tomorrow, which may brush eastern sections with light rain early Tuesday.
1033 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 An upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean reaches north-northeast into the extreme western North Atlantic. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery highlights a broad mid-upper level low complex digging into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Between the two, a col-region in the lower troposphere is nearly stationary, situated to the northwest of the Florida Keys in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the low level flow is anticyclonic enough across the Florida Straits and the island chain to starve the KBYX radar of any echoes.
939 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 It's a quiet evening, as winds have dropped off behind cold front, which is now south of the Red River. It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow as well.
Subjective 12Z upper- air analysis indicates an upper-level trough from central Canada into the Dakotas/MN border, with an upper low lobe centered over the MS/OH River confluence.
923 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A cold front will push offshore tonight, then will be followed by a stronger cold front late Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will then prevail into late week before another cold front possibly affects the area this weekend. A cold front is located just west of the forecast area this evening with the main band of showers and thunderstorms well ahead of it around the SC Lowcountry/Pee Dee and extending south into the Atlantic off the GA coast. The initial cold front will be offshore by daybreak Tuesday, with significantly drier air filtering in from the west. The deep upper trough will push toward the Southeast late Tuesday, pushing a secondary dry cold front through the region Tuesday night.
Winds don't drop off completely, so don't expect a real cold night, but did lean a bit toward cooler guidance in our normally cool areas in the west.
A cold front which moved through ern NM will push up against the central mt chain then into portions of the RGV between 02-04Z with east winds gusting to around 30kt below canyons. Not anticipating the lower cigs will bleed into the KSAF vcnty at this time. All areas should be cooler on Tuesday, though central and western areas will be near normal.
High pressure will build across the area for the remainder of Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures in the northeast mountains are expected to dip into the lower to middle 30s overnight Tuesday.
What we will see is a brief drop in winds, which has allowed temps to quickly tumble into the lower 50s and maybe a few sites drop into the 40s before midnight. But CAA occurring behind the front will send temps into the low to mid 40s by sunrise. With cold air advection occurring during the course of the day, high temps will only rise into the lower 60s; about 10 degrees below seasonable norms around 72. Winds should slacken Tuesday evening, as high pressure builds toward the NW Gulf coast from the Rockies.
Upper level analysis shows a trough over the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the west. The upper trough and jet will shift eastward on Tuesday, as upper ridging spreads over the central CONUS.
High pressure building over the region will provide dry weather tonight and Tuesday.
Water vapor loop shows the large upper trough moving across the Eastern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temps will remain cool thanks to the cold air advection, dropping to near or below the freezing mark overnight even with boundary layer mixing.
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A reinforcing cold front will be moving into northern parts of se Tx in the next couple hours and off the coast after 4-6am. A secondary cold front to come through and provide a shot of colder.
Heights build tonight and Tuesday and this allows for warmer temperatures.