Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the thick canopy of clouds continues gradually eroding this afternoon, temperatures will have an opportunity to recover into the low to mid 80s areawide with areas across northwest Indiana perhaps staying a smidge cooler given a shorter period of time to see sun. Otherwise, lows in the low to mid-60s (except upper 60s in Chicago) are expected. Locally cooler conditions are expected along the Lake Michigan shoreline in the wake of a lake breeze. Precipitation chances will increase Monday night onward as an upper-level trough approaches from the northwest and the stationary boundary lifts northward.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s.
311 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Tonight, high pressure will dominate the region.
This afternoon, effective cold front/outflow from earlier storms stretches from near Champaign west-southwest towards Springfield.
322 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Gust northwest winds and an extensive cumulus cloud field have developed across the northern RRV and much of northwest MN in the backwash of departing low pressure system, now in southern Ontario.
Somewhat cooler, drier weather will then follow through the first half of the work week. An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will advance through our region throughout the day and into tonight. However, the threat will mainly be wind since directional and vertical wind shear is marginal to produce tornadoes and the freezing level is too high (near 14kft) and will essentially melt falling hail. This parallel sfc boundary-flow aloft will result in the cold front stalling out and washing out (becoming more diffuse w/ time) somewhere in the vicinity of our southern counties. Otherwise, anticipate comparatively-cooler and tranquil weather on Monday, with highs topping out around 90 (dew points 5-10 degrees below Sunday will make this feel quite a bit better).
Cooler weather is expected midweek as a weak trough develops along the US West Coast.
Across our region, temperatures in the lower 90s I-10 corridor of SE TX/SW LA, mid 90s north of I-10 across Inland SE TX/C LA.
Temps will fall into the lower 60s away from Lake MI by sunrise Monday.
Somewhat cooler, drier weather will then follow through the first half of the work week. Changes for the eve update included the increase of precip probs to likely numbers for tonight as a broad upper trough/frontal zone will be providing sufficient forcing-for-ascent/lift for widespread showers and storms. This parallel sfc boundary-flow aloft will result in the cold front stalling out and washing out (becoming more diffuse w/ time) somewhere in the vicinity of our southern counties. Otherwise, anticipate comparatively-cooler and tranquil weather on Monday, with highs topping out around 90 (dew points 5-10 degrees below Sunday will make this feel quite a bit better).
This will bring in a reinforced wave of 'cooler' air and veer winds to the NW. Lows are forecast to be near or slightly below normal, ranging from the lower 50s in the Northwoods to around 60 across the Fox Valley, and low 60s along the lake shore. Winds will be light and highs will range from the lower 70s in north- central WI and along the lakeshore, and in the upper 70s to near 80 across the Fox Valley and central WI. Monday Night Through Sunday High pressure will depart the region Monday night, with mainly dry conditions expected.
The upper level ridge continues to hold strong across the area. Highs today will climb into the low to mid 90s across most locations with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Warm air aloft from the ridge and a capping inversion, should limit the coverage of afternoon showers/storms again today. Overall, expect best chances for precipitation will be in the higher elevations along the TN/NC line and across the Cumberland Plateau.
Also given the cooler temperatures and lower cloud bases, high winds will be less of a threat.
High pressure will approach from the west tonight, moving overhead on Monday. Breezy west to northwest winds tonight will ease tomorrow as the high moves into the area.
Good potential CAPE values of 2000-3000j/kg but may take most of the day to dissolve the low level stable layer.
Surface cold front has pushed effectively out of our forecast area with light west to northwesterly winds this evening. As the thick canopy of clouds continues gradually eroding this afternoon, temperatures will have an opportunity to recover into the low to mid 80s areawide with areas across northwest Indiana perhaps staying a smidge cooler given a shorter period of time to see sun. Otherwise, lows in the low to mid-60s (except upper 60s in Chicago) are expected. Locally cooler conditions are expected along the Lake Michigan shoreline in the wake of a lake breeze. Precipitation chances will increase Monday night onward as an upper-level trough approaches from the northwest and the stationary boundary lifts northward.
1017 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A cold front will move south into the area tonight. A weak cold front is still poised to move into the region tonight. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Highs will be a little cooler, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mild temperatures to continue Monday night with lows from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
524 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Water vapor shows broad trof extending from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains. Weak inverted trof over eastern WY resulting in increasing return flow across our western zones. Still expecting a strong/severe storm or two to develop along the inverted trof by later this afternoon, with activity moving into the Black Hills and far southwest SD. A stronger northern stream trof will push a cold front through the Northern Plains on Monday. Should see a return to warmer temps in the mid to late week time frame as flow aloft transitions from zonal to southwest, although the flow will remain disturbed for a nearly daily chance of storms.
This parallel sfc boundary-flow aloft will result in the cold front stalling out and washing out (becoming more diffuse w/ time) somewhere in the vicinity of our southern counties. Otherwise, anticipate comparatively-cooler and tranquil weather on Monday, with highs topping out around 90 (dew points 5-10 degrees below Sunday will make this feel quite a bit better).
557 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Hot and humid conditions will fuel thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that slips south across the area overnight. Overnight, a cold front will sag into the region. Highs will be a little cooler, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mild temperatures to continue Monday night with lows from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
High pressure will settle over the region tomorrow with light gradient flow, generally from the north to northwest. This will keep the forecast area a little cooler then we've seen recently and highs in the low to mid 70s are expected inland, with some 60s by the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette. Seasonal temperatures are expected this week, with highs mostly in the 70s, with a few spots climbing back into the lower 80s by late week.
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. High pressure aloft persists over The Midlands and CSRA through mid week with a continuation of above normal heat and humid. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop each day off the higher terrain of Upstate SC/Western NC and along the sea breeze front and propagate into the region.
712 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure is expected to persist through the work week. Otherwise, given the lack of instability and increasing CINH under the influence of high pressure aloft across the southeast and a surface and low level ridge poking in from the Atlantic, there is no risk of convection tonight. All models keep a deep layer ridge over the area. Both high and low temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal, with lows mid 70s, except upper 70s to around 80 near the coast, and highs in the lower to mid 90s.
1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. High pressure aloft persists over The Midlands and CSRA through mid week with a continuation of above normal heat and humid. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop each day off the higher terrain of Upstate SC/Western NC and along the sea breeze front and propagate into the region.
544 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Similar to yesterday showers and storms have developed over the higher terrain. With the high pressure still over AZ tomorrow the weak west to northwest flow will usher in slightly drier air. Gusty winds will be the main threats and temperatures will run above normal for most of the lower valleys.
804 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.
640 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Gusty winds out of the west this evening with cooler temperatures than the previous day thanks to the cold front that swept through overnight. Another cold front is currently pushing southeast this afternoon with some increased clouds and some light showers peppered across the Northern MN.
Heat index values still range from the lower to upper 90s. Monday morning temperatures will bottom out in the low to upper 70s across the region. Heat Index Values have mainly behaved across the Mid-South as we sit in the low 100s across most locations - remaining below the 105 degree threshold that's needed to warrant a heat advisory. Current temperatures are in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. The high over the southeast will slowly push east which will allow a stationary boundary to drag south into the lower Ohio Valley and northern Mid-South over the next couple of days.
Warm and dry summertime weather will continue inland for the next few days, while low clouds and cooler temperatures remain persistent along the coast.
1007 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Atlantic high pressure will continue to dominate through much of the upcoming week with a weak trough of low pressure inland. Upper ridge remains firmly planted over the SE CONUS tonight with a very weak trough over the Delmarva Peninsula, which is helping to kick up isolated convection across far SE VA. Strong upper level ridging will continue Monday, providing very hot and humid conditions once again with heat indices 105-109 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all of the forecast area, with highs in the low to mid 90s combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
Cumulus buildups and showers have been developing over the high sierra this afternoon.
High pressure will keep clear skies and calm winds across the area overnight, with lows falling into the lower to mid 70s by daybreak.
Gust northwest winds and an extensive cumulus cloud field have developed across the northern RRV and much of northwest MN in the backwash of departing low pressure system, now in southern Ontario.
Temperatures were on track for morning lows back in the low to mid 70s. The clouds/convection are associated with a rather prominent mid level wave moving west across the northern Gulf of Mexico on the underside of the strong ridge tenaciously situated across the MidSouth. Elsewhere, the influence of the ridge will manifest in hot temperatures once again, but afternoon dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s as slightly drier air is mixed down, similar to today. This will keep heat indices mostly in the lower 100s.
Cumulus has been bubbling over the high Sierra south of I-80 and another day with chances for isolated storms is seen today. HREF probabilities of 40+ dBZ indicate the best chances for storms mainly over the highest elevations in Alpine, Tuolumne, and El Dorado counties before 4pm with activity shifting east of the crest later in the afternoon.
Not out of the question to see a little river valley fog tonight, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Monday under high pressure. Temps will fall into the lower 60s away from Lake MI by sunrise Monday.
A short wave trough will swing through the region in this timeframe. The passage of the cold front will bring cooler northwesterly flow that will allow for more pleasant weather tomorrow with a reprieve from the heat. Maximum temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s.
348 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Similar to yesterday showers and storms have developed over the higher terrain. With the high pressure still over AZ tomorrow the weak west to northwest flow will usher in slightly drier air. Gusty winds will be the main threats and temperatures will run above normal for most of the lower valleys.
821 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Deep layer easterly flow will continue overnight with some mid level drying present across northern sections compliments of the mid level ridge across the Southeast.
Upper high will weaken a touch over the next 24 hours.
651 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.
635 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A slightly cooler and much drier airmass compared to yesterday is in place across the area today as high pressure continues to build in. However, forecast soundings suggest that moisture associated with this wave will be confined to the mid levels across the local area, with much drier air in the low levels.
748 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Surface based cold front and substantial dewpoint gradient north of Saginaw Bay will slowly push southward during the early evening before accelerating after 03Z. Organized low level anticyclonic flow trajectories will support surface ridging over Lower Michigan Monday. Additional activity along synoptic scale trough/cold front may very well survive to some degree as it works in from the west late this afternoon into this evening.
804 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A cold front will move south into the area tonight. A weak cold front is still poised to move into the region tonight. Highs will be a little cooler, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mild temperatures to continue Monday night with lows from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
956 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.
838 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Heat index still in the upper 90s to near 100F in the lower Susq at 00z. Temps will be much warmer tonight, and dewpoints stay sticky, so this should make the conditions unbearable for many in the SE tonight. Temps should also be a little cooler in the NW, too, thanks partly to some early lower clouds and perhaps fog.
938 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure is expected to persist through the work week. All models keep a deep layer ridge over the area. Both high and low temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal, with lows mid 70s, except upper 70s to around 80 near the coast, and highs in the lower to mid 90s.
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will be centered over the Southeast United States and the Four Corners region today. With the upper level ridge axises to our west and east, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly across the eastern two thirds of the area, where better low level moisture will reside. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
415 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.
/Today through Tuesday/ A weak disturbance across the northwest Gulf of Mexico on the western periphery of an upper-ridge centered across the southeast CONUS will support scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of Interstate 20 this afternoon. Due to increased instabilityacross the region, sufficient mixing of the column will take the edge off of the heat with afternoon highs forecast to climb into the lower to middle 90s. An upper-trough across central Texas will again bring another chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region on Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s. Upper-level ridging will hold strong over the course of the workweek across the southeast, with most of our weather continuing to be diurnally driven.
335 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A few showers will linger Monday morning as a cold front moves through the area. While temperatures will come in cooler compared to yesterday behind the weak front, temperatures will still be able to climb into the 80s across most of the area and even in the lower 90s across the valleys. High pressure will build in tonight and remain in control for Tuesday. The exception will be the Wyoming valley, which could stay warmer in the mid/upper 80s 230 AM UPDATE.
1130 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Similar to yesterday showers and storms have developed over the higher terrain. With the high pressure still over AZ tomorrow the weak west to northwest flow will usher in slightly drier air. Gusty winds will be the main threats and temperatures will run above normal for most of the lower valleys. Tuesday is the transition day as the high over the Desert Southwest builds back eastward and the low over the West Coast deepens. This southerly flow looks sufficient for moisture advection given the position of the high and low, which is a classic monsoon pattern. The models have come into better agreement that the low over the coast will get absorbed into the Pacific Northwest trough, which for the most part stays in place.
421 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.
1159 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Surface based cold front and substantial dewpoint gradient now over Saginaw Bay will accelerate southward after 03Z. Organized low level anticyclonic flow trajectories will support surface ridging over Lower Michigan Monday. Additional activity along synoptic scale trough/cold front may very well survive to some degree as it works in from the west late this afternoon into this evening.
Upper level high pressure will shift to the southeast states on Monday while an upper trough moves across the Central Plains. We will keep the highest PoPs across the southeast zones where moisture will be most abundant, however, we can't rule out a stray shower or brief storm almost anywhere Monday afternoon.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 96 74 94 / 40 20 40 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 74 95 73 93 / 30 20 50 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 95 73 95 73 93 / 30 20 50 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 70 92 70 90 / 30 30 60 20 70.
Upper ridging will maintain control, but mid level heights will be low enough to allow convection in the favored higher terrain areas.
1102 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Temps will be much warmer overnight compared to recent night, and dewpoints stay sticky in the mid 60s to low 70s, so this should make the conditions unbearable for many in the SE tonight.
The ridge at 500mb is still present, but should break down somewhat today as a weak 500mb low sets up south of Cuba. By Tuesday, the 500mb ridge continues to gradually weaken, allowing for minor 500mb height falls over the area. At the surface, The high over the central Atlantic continues to keep tropical moisture streaming over the region. However, cloud cover is forecast to be abundant, which may hinder diurnal heating for Tuesday, which should inhibit some thunderstorms development, and probably keep thunderstorms strength on the low side.
Expect cooler-than-average conditions to continue through the middle of the week, especially over the interior.
The forecast was updated to reflect the higher confidence to the NE and loading in the latest model guidance. After Monday's disturbance moves out, skies should clear Monday night with a slight rebound in high temperatures for Tuesday when compared to the cooler highs on Monday.
445 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Broad ridging aloft continues north of the state over the southeastern CONUS while a broad upper-level trough extends across the Bahamas and Florida Straits. Surface ridging from the Atlantic extends west across the southeast CONUS north of the state.
An upper trough axis will pass through the MN/Dakotas region at that time followed by northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge begins to build across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Temps will be seasonal on Tuesday with highs mainly in the upper 70s/low 80s but as the ridge builds to the west and begins to traverse east, a warmer, more humid airmass will filter back in around midweek. The upper ridge is progged to set up across the nation's midsection. Our area will get into more southwesterly flow aloft as multiple waves of upper trough energy rotate out of the central/northern Rockies and northern High Plains into the Dakotas toward the end of the work week and the weekend.
305 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Temps will be much warmer overnight compared to recent night, and dewpoints stay sticky in the mid 60s to low 70s, so this should make the conditions unbearable for many in the SE tonight.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s.
1211 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High pressure is expected to persist through the work week. All models keep a deep layer ridge over the area. Both high and low temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal, with lows mid 70s, except upper 70s to around 80 near the coast, and highs in the lower to mid 90s.
A warm front is bisecting the forecast area today and will likely hang around through tomorrow, which will help provide forcing for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds in the lowest 3km and CAPE originating above the mixed layer. Broad northwest flow transitions to southwest this week as the upper ridge regains strength over the southern and central Plains. Closer to the surface, the thermal ridge returns to the High Plains with strong southerly flow and H85 temps approaching 30C. The highest precip chances exist early in the week during the upper ridge transition and with a surface front in the vicinity.
419 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.
At the surface thru 850 mb, lee- side troughing sets up on the eastern side of the Front Range. Instability by late afternoon has best Dcape along and out ahead of the lee-side trough in NE Colorado, and decent MLcape transitioning to near and north of the front by the evening hours.
313 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A broad low amplitude trough over Canada will lead to relatively zonal upper-level flow over the Northern Plains for the next 36 hours. Warmer more moist mid-level air resides to the south and southwest of Siouxland, with a relatively cool air mass in place.
Tonight Through Tuesday Night Yet another hot and humid day was noted acrs the Natural State, with mid aftn temps generally in the lower and mid 90s.