Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridge of high pressure will shift east of the area tonight and set up a waa regime. SSW winds will increase Friday in the wake of the warm front. Those winds will diminish this afternoon as high pressure finally tracks over the area and the advisory may be able to be cancelled a little early. Breezy southerly winds on the back side of the high pressure are expected Friday.
1035 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2017 Broad upper ridge is building over the western CONUS, with a 150-kt jet moving over the northern plains. Upper ridge will shift over the central states today, and a warm front will push into the CWA. The upper ridge will flatten tonight as a weak wave moves across the Canadian border. Friday is still expected to be mild; however it may be another tricky temperature forecast with the cold front moving in during the day.
A cold front was stretched across central Georgia and southern Alabama this morning with an associated line of showers and thunderstorms moving across central Georgia. The cold front will push through the CWA this morning and after it does so, drier and cooler conditions will move into the area. Cooler air will move in behind the front today resulting in high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday for much of the CWA.
Upper heights already starting to rise as ridging starts to build into the Western Plains. However, current timing seems to clear the western edge of the precipitation just as the warmer air moves in. Think there could be some sleet mixing in as the precip exits the area, but at this point unless warm air moves faster than expected, freezing rain is less likely. Strong southerly winds on the front side of the low pressure system will bring some blowing snow, mainly in the northern Red River Valley where there will be both a decent snowpack and falling snow.
With the ridge expected to be centered over ern portions of the CWA this evening and some snow lingering across nrn counties, these areas shud see a rapid drop in temps early this evening. With the ridge moving ewd out of the area and sly winds returning, expect temps to remain somewhat steady over this area before beginning to slowly rise late tonight. Overall, have trended twd the cooler guidance both today and tonight. However, did trend slightly warmer across far srn counties where a little more insolation is expected and neutral advection. Mild conditions to persist Friday night with lows only in the low 40s to low 50s.
Minimum temperatures above freezing outside of the mountains. Even warmer for most locations as the flow aloft backs to west southwest and we are in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. With projected 700 mb winds at or above 50 knots, continuation of the high wind warning for wind prone locations looks good. With a cold frontal passage, the orographic snows really pick up in coverage and intensity across our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges with the continuation of the winter storm watch. Snow chances increase markedly across our western counties in the wake of the cold front with a chance of rain or snow across our other northern lower elevations.
350 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure centered over the middle Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. Upper trough along the Atlantic Coast with ridging over the Rockies. High pressure will quickly move to the Atlantic Coast over the next 24 hours and continue eastward while upper ridging moves into the area. This will turn our winds to a southerly component Friday morning, bringing warmer, moist air into the area.
Models consistently show low-level moisture advection to remain steady enough to keep dewpoints from crashing, and forecast soundings show a relatively moist profile at and below the low-level inversion.
Still look on track for a low level jet just above the inversion overnight, and we retained the low level wind shear mention. Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon especially PVW/LBB with stronger winds developing aloft overnight as the low level inversion sets in. /issued 258 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ Upper level ridging will build into the the region today with northwesterly flow aloft continuing into tonight when the anticyclonically curved portion of ridge passes overhead.
Medium Clear skies due to influence of high pressure will be replaced by a developing waa regime and thickening mid deck as the low level ridging shifts off to the east. Medium Strong waa regime early ushers in the thermal ridging with 850 temps averaging 8-10c by days end after starting the day in negative territory. However can see where the ECMWF may be on the right track with drying things out even in the low layers.
The precipitation (rain and high elevation snow) will be been primarily confined to the higher elevations of Central and Southern Idaho today where additional heavy QPF amounts are expected. Surface winds south to southeast 15-25 kts and gusts to 40 kts over the higher terrain.
Expect at least a slight chance to a chance for freezing rain or sleet across northwest and north central North Dakota late this afternoon and evening. Secondarily, increasing low level winds (h850 level) over 55 kts will move across the region in the warm sector of the low tonight and Friday.
A quick look at the surface analysis shows temperatures mainly in the low to mid 40s at the lower elevations and mid 20s to lower 30s at higher elevations. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure in place over the Western CONUS providing our forecast area with dry mild weather. As previously mentioned the current satellite water vapor image is showing a strong ridge over the Western CONUS with plenty of moisture along the West coast and Great basin.
Latest water vapor satellite shows a broad trof over the eastern third of the U. , with ridging over the western half.
303 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure ridge over the cwa was pushing eastward with a band of warm air advection mid clouds on the return flow, that extended from sw MN to se IA and into eastern MO/southern IL. 3 pm temperatures ranged from the upper teens to lower 20s near and south of Highway 30 where there is 1 to 4 inches of snow depth, to the lower to mid 20s to the north where a trace to no snow cover was reported. Tonight: The ridge will slide to the OH Valley overnight, while the clipper system tracks to the ND/Canada border. Friday: Clipper then tracks to western LK Superior later in the day, pulling much warmer air northeast into the dvn cwa.
/Today through Tonight/ Large eastern trof will continue to translate eastward through tonight as broad upper ridging builds across the central United States. This strong warm advection will persist through the night as thermal ridging builds toward the state. This will set the stage for much warmer temperatures into Friday.
The ridge of high pressure, currently set up across our central counties, will be exiting across our eastern counties by 15Z and warm air advection will be taking hold. Expect temperatures to range from the low to mid 30s over south central SD to the upper teens across northeastern SD and west central MN. Despite the low nearby, dry weather will remain. The 60 and 70 degree records at Pierre, Mobridge, Kennebec and Timber Lake should be safe. The 500mb ridge over the western third of the U. , with the apex of the ridge up across ID and British Columbia will be cross over the Plains States by 03Z Friday before flatting out across all but the far western and eastern states.
256 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure will push east across the region tonight into Friday.
The powerful upper level trough that moved across our area yesterday will continue to push eastward through the rest of today and tonight. In the wake of the cold front that has moved well southeast of our area, we will remain under northerly/northwesterly flow, with dry and cooler air continuing to funnel into our area.
High pressure will move through the region over the next couple of days, keeping the weather quiet across central Indiana. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows High pressure in place across the Central Plains. Dry weather will persist through Friday night under the influence of the high. However, as the center of the ridge passes tonight, surface flow will shift to the south and southwest and rapid warming is likely.
324 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Canadian high pressure passes over the area Friday. Warmer weather will return for the weekend as the Canadian high moves away to the east. Will maintain wind advisories along the Blue Ridge and Highlands this evening, then expect conditions to tame during the late night as High Pressure moves overhead. A large area of high pressure along the Southeast Coast Friday evening will move eastward into the Atlantic Ocean.
1218 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure building in will bring a period of dry weather and some sunshine to the area.
Combined with flat upper ridging, temperatures should continue to quickly warm into the lower 70s with dry weather prevailing. During the weekend, a southern stream upper trough will become cutoff over Northern Mexico.
Steady southerly flow picks up on the back side of high pressure tomorrow and helps temps climb above normal into the low and mid 50s.
225 PM MST Thu Feb 9 2017 Upper level analysis has broad ridge across the western CONUS with closed low just off the Pac NW coast. Upper ridge will flatten as a weak wave moves along the southern Canadian border. Upper ridge continues to flatten and shift east. Another very mild day on tap, however it may be another tricky temperature forecast with a cold front moving in during the day. Lows Friday night will be near freezing.
355 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure centered to the north of the area today has allowed for plenty of sunshine and pleasant conditions. Unfortunately, the progressive nature of this high means that change is in the works in relatively short order as winds will veer back to the southeast and then south overnight tonight into Friday morning bringing with it increasing moisture and cloud cover.
Sfc ridging anchored over the Ozarks region SW into Cntrl TX will shift SE into the TN valley tonight, with more in the way of a SE component to the low level winds returning.
Unseasonably cold conditions expected across central and southeast Illinois today as a sprawling/chilly area of high pressure builds southeast into the area. However, the high is expected to be very progressive, with southerly return flow developing on its back side for tonight. The presence of this high and associated dry airmass will keep quiet weather going through the period. While surface temperatures will be significantly warmer than today -- reaching the 50s across areas from about Rushville southeast to Lawrenceville -- the northern CWA will be tempered by the 3-4 inches of snow cover that will start melting.
A warm front continues to push across northeast Montana this afternoon with areas of freezing rain continuing in the northeast zones. Temperatures are rising above freezing and will continue to do so further east this evening. Expect clearing skies on Friday and warmer high temperatures for most places thanks to efficient boundary layer mixing.
253 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Tonight through Friday: Polar high pressure is making a rare appearance in the ArkLaMiss as we go through the near term. Have kept most locations above freezing but it would not be surprising if we get more decoupling of the boundary layer than anticipated. As we go through Friday, a warm- up will commence under mostly sunny skies with high pressure shifting east and southwest low-level flow developing.
The onset of this rapidly warmer air mass will be evident by increasing cloud cover this afternoon/tonight.
Sfc ridging across S OK early this morning will very quickly shift eastward into the Mid Miss/Tenn Valley by this afternoon. Only cloud cover concerns will be thin cirrus which will be in and out of the Lower Miss Valley through the next 24 hours.
Warm front Friday. Warmer for the weekend. In areas where snow is on the ground, will go toward the lower end of MOS guidance overnight. A warm front will then push northward across the area on Friday. Strengthening baroclinic develops north of the Ohio Valley as an upper midwest trough aloft digs into the Great Lakes.
Warming into the evening hours will be possible as even warmer air continues to move in from the west. With a warm layer aloft moving in on the southwest side of the precipitation and surface temperatures remaining well below freezing, might see a brief period of wintry mix overnight but most locations impacted will see less than a tenth of an inch of total precipitation. Friday will be generally dry and much warmer than normal for this time of year.
1235 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Low pressure is moving off the Delmarva this morning. High pressure and more seasonable temperatures will return tonight and Friday. Trough axis swings through the area today. We have issued a wind chill advisory for a portion of the Highlands for tonight. Very cold and brisk Thu night under building high pressure. Chilly Fri under high pressure.
CAA continues across the mid state this morning in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area yesterday. Fortunately, it looks like this cold air will not last long as the upper trough moves off the east coast and upper ridging moves in quickly behind. However, overnight into Friday morning, winds will begin their turn towards the south and start WAA as the upper level ridge builds in.
Tonight should be a mild night for February standards as a warm front passes through from west to east. We probably will not get much below freezing for most locations, except for perhaps cooler in our north where there is still snow cover. the expected warm-up is coming as a low amplitude ridge arrives with 850 mb temps in the 16 to 20C range, and I have bumped up temperatures even more to near CONSMOS temperatures for most places into the 70s for much of the CWA, except for our far north where there is some snow cover, and I have lowered temperatures there to about 5 degrees below CONSMOS.
Lowered temperatures a few degrees to keep them in the low to mid 30s. not anticipating temperatures to drop below freezing as current thinking is southwest winds along with scattered cirrus tonight should keep temperatures holding steady.
1125 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a well amplified upstream ridge situated over the western CONUS with hefty moisture spilling over the top through the Pacific northwest. strong high pressure was in control across the central Plains. aforementioned Pacific moisture riding down the front end the ridge will likely keep skies mostly cloudy.
and Friday A ridge of high pressure will pass through the western Great Lakes today, bringing cold quiet weather to the area. Wind chills early this morning will hover around 20 below, with some areas getting into the lower 20s below zero once winds pick up after sunrise, however this should be short lived as temperatures rise after sunrise. As warmer air advects in on Friday precipitation will become more of a wintry mix with freezing rain and sleet possible.
Strong high pressure will continue to build into the area through the period. The high will continue to track eastward with winds veering to the east by the mid-morning hours. Colder and drier conditions are expected today behind a cold front. The cold front has exited the CWA and the cold air is being ushered into the region behind some strong northwesterly winds. This winds will stay up during the day, so even with almost pure sunshine by the afternoon and temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, it will feel quite cooler than it actually is. A few cooler spots in the north will tempt the 20 degree mark by sunrise Friday morning.
As the high moves over our region winds will decrease late Thursday and overnight. The high will move to our east Thursday night which will swing winds around to the south. By Friday the high will move off the east coast allowing a warm front to lift through the area.
136 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Aloft - Ridging extended across most of the western states from Mexico to the Canadian Rockies. A broad long wave trough anchored over Hudson Bay covered much of the eastern U. Surface - High pressure centered over the central plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley sprawled from south-central Canada to the western Gulf of Mexico. A low south of New England trailed a cold front that reached southward and crossed central FL into the Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge slides east and flattens some. with the upper trough rotating out over the Atlantic. As the upper ridge moves east the flow aloft goes from westerly to northwesterly. 75 inches Fri afternoon as the lower levels turn to north then northeast.
These gradients are expected to relax this evening as a surface pressure ridge builds temporarily over Eastern Conus. No precipitation is anticipated for tonight into Friday thanks to said ridge. Strong high pressure will continue to build into the area through the period. The high will continue to track eastward with winds veering to the east by the mid-morning hours. However, with lower winds under high pressure we should not reach red flag criteria.
Warm front Friday. Warmer for the weekend. In areas where snow is on the ground, will go toward the lower end of MOS guidance overnight. A warm front will then push northward across the area on Friday. High pressure slides to our SE on Friday bringing warm southwesterly flow back into the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1141 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 VFR conditions to prevail through the 24 hour forecast period as high pressure continues to build in across the region. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/ Northerly flow with high pressure continuing to build across the region this afternoon. Thus, the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere are quite stable this morning.
321 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Low stratus and isolated snow showers are finally diminishing across NE TN and SW VA this afternoon, with no additional accumulation expected (save for the highest mountain peaks). A high pressure ridge will build in for Friday and winds will veer and increase from the SW by the afternoon. Some clouds may sneak into SW VA during the day, so will keep them a little cooler than would otherwise.
1129 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Snow showers will continue through the afternoon before high pressure begins to move over the region and dry conditions resume overnight. Warmer temperatures and rain chances return for the weekend. Building high pressure and backing flow should end any remaining snow showers this evening.
Large area of high pressure stretches from the upper midwest down to the gulf coast, although of limited help for Michigan which remains largely shrouded in lake induced cloud cover and widespread snow showers in the snow belts. Only exception will be across parts of eastern upper Michigan where the long fetch/lingering lake aggregate troughing will keep better snow showers going through the evening hours. Around a 6 hour window of decent forcing should yield snow accumulations in the 2 to 4 inch range with the higher amounts in that range across eastern upper Michigan. Precip will likely end with a period of freezing drizzle/drizzle later in the afternoon into the evening as deeper moisture aloft strips out. Mid/upper level moisture strips out leaving the chance for some freezing drizzle (confined to northern zones primarily).
1100 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 At 3 AM, a 1030 mb high pressure area was centered over Kansas City. The subsidence associated with this system and in the wake of a departing short wave trough (that brought mid clouds to the area during the evening) produced clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A tight surface pressure gradient between the high pressure system and a low pressure area over eastern Lake Superior kept the wind speeds in the 10 to 15 mph range. For tonight, a warm front will move quickly northeast across the area.
/issued 858 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017/ A cold front stretched southwest to northeast across FL in the vicinity of Tampa Bay. The cold front pushing south across the waters with increasing winds in it/s wake will finally clear out any lingering sea fog.
153 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Snow showers will continue through the afternoon before high pressure begins to move over the region and dry conditions resume overnight. Warmer temperatures and rain chances return for the weekend. As high pressure builds in through the evening snow will gradually end as the inversion lowers. Temperatures will drop to the low teens / high single digits with decoupled winds and fresh snow.
130 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Cold front will continue to move South of the region this evening, as strong high pressure builds to the Northwest. Strong high pressure will be over the region Friday morning, and move to the East Friday afternoon.
Today, chilly conditions persist as continued cold advection on the eastern side of low-level ridging remains. Signs of our warmup are already appearing in portions of Southwestern South Dakota and Northwest Nebraska late this afternoon, as a strong baroclinic zone and developing warm front races northeast. With the ridge axis passing through the CWA this evening, and surface warm front lagging into the late evening hours, temperatures will begin to steady or rise from west to east after midnight. Higher resolution models also suggesting minor wind event along the Buffalo Ridge where have pushed winds up to 30 to 40 mph at times into Friday morning.
A Canadian high pressure system has shifted east of the Ozarks this afternoon.
107 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 High pressure will move from the midwest this morning into the Ohio Valley this evening.
High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley late tonight and early Friday, bringing fair weather and diminishing winds. A warm front will approach from the Great Lakes later Friday, bringing increasing clouds and the chance of light snow over the northern counties. Snow showers with lake enhancement are likely to linger over the Alleghenies into the evening in association with strong CAA, upslope and passage of upper trough axis. Blustery and cold conditions are in store for the region tonight, as pres gradient remains fairly tight between intense low east of New Eng and high pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.
313 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Confidence remains high that much warmer temperatures will spread across the region on Friday as westerly downslope effects boost daytime highs.
/issued 437 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ Cool high pressure, centered over the central Plains this morning, will move east today and tonight.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected today and tonight, which only become more pronounced by Friday. That will allow troughing to developing across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas today.
321 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Warmer air is pushing into the region this afternoon thanks to gusty southerly winds. WAA, along with upper level ridging will cause temperatures to become steady, or slowly rise tonight. An area of low pressure crossing southern Canada on Friday will shift the winds to a west-northwest direction.
An upper lever ridge across the western US will shift east into plains late Tonight. Tonight, Southerly winds will keep overnight lows warmer as temperatures only drop into the lower to mid 30s.
339 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features fairly amplified flow, with a deep trough digging into the Northeast and an upstream ridge located across the west-central CONUS. This ridge will build into the Midwest through the period, allowing for a marked increase in temperatures over the next 24 hours. However, as skies clear, surface ridging currently parked over eastern MO will push off to the east which will allow for return flow to commence.