Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is consistent with our observed gusts, and do not expect gusts to get this high for the remainder of the afternoon, with the possible exception of a convective gust associated with the aforementioned precip to our north. Areas to the west through Rosebud County will also pick up some light snow later tonight and Wednesday as cold front and low level baroclinicity shift in that direction over time.
Broad trof across the east 2/3 of the CONUS will keep a general west northwest flow pattern across the area.
642 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Ceilings will continue to improve and northerly surface winds will decrease behind the cold front overnight, but expect lower ceilings and increasing -RA chances along/south of the JAN/HKS to MEI corridor as we go through Wednesday.
Temperatures tonight will drop off into the low to mid 20s while daytime highs on Wednesday range from the middle 30s north to the middle 40s south. Medium range models continue to advertise a cold period hanging on at least through the middle of the month as the highly amplified pattern over North America remains locked in place with a ridge west and deep trof over Hudson Bay.
507 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Additional light snowfall is expected this evening and overnight for much of the area as a weak vorticity maximum rotates around the large upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and eastern U. Wednesday will be another breezy and cool day, with temperatures a few degrees cooler than Tuesday. The overall weather pattern will change little over the next 7 days, with a massive upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and an amplified ridge over the West Coast.
/issued 358 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017/ An area of high pressure will continue to bring mainly dry weather to the region for tonight. On Wednesday the pattern will begin to shift as the winds begin to veer to the southeast and then the south southeast as a cold front approaches from the north.
920 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain will taper off with the departure of the cold front. A cold front is rapidly sweeping eastward through the area this evening, with really only Tucker County left to cross. Thus, lows dropping back just a few degrees below freezing seem most likely given upstream trends.
901 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Mild conditions overnight as southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching cold front.
736 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A cold front will sweep across the area this evening. The cold front is just entering western PA as of 00Z/7PM. Lows will drop into the 20s over the north, and remain above freezing over the SE. Global model and ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement on the maintenance of high latitude blocking pattern featuring an amplified ridge-trough configuration over the West Coast and eastern NOAM. Finally, there appears to be multiple waves of low pressure lifting north along a western Atlantic front from late week into the early weekend timeframe, with guidance varying on specifics. Several bands of showers with the cold front to the west.
The large upper trough will extend south across the Great Lakes. This could bring a few flurries as the higher 850 mb sags south.
Western Atlc high pressure ridging extending into the central FL peninsula continues overnight but does show signs of getting nudged eastward as a cold frontal boundary moves into the FL Panhandle by dawn Wed morning. The low-level flow also begins to veer from SERLY to SSWRLY overnight, but remains light. High pressure ridging east-west oriented will remain across the east central FL coastal waters, though on a weakening trend as a cold front moves slowly into north FL.
The lower atmosphere will remain very dry and the upper system not very strong, so if any precipitation occurs, it would be very light. The northerly mid-level flow will persist all weak and bring a cooler airmass into Oklahoma following a front Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday should be a bit cooler than today behind cold front. Will start off Wednesday night with a slow moving large 500mb trough over the eastern half to two-thirds of North America, and a ridge over the west coast up through British Columbia and Yukon/Northwest Territories. As a result of this nearly stagnant weather pattern, daytime highs will only range from the low 20s to upper 40s.
Upper level low pressure troughing is filtering in upper moisture and mid to high clouds were seen over the region. These clouds will gradually push to the south as the upper trough deepens and the cold air mass settles in over the region.
41 Cold front and associated band of shallow convection is a bit slow advancing across north Georgia this afternoon. Would not expect any significant accumulations, however the higher elevations of the north Georgia mountains may see a little.
Assuming the very dry air in the low levels (below 13000 ft AGL) can be overcome, precipitation types could be in the form of light rain, light sleet, and/or even light snow across western north Texas tonight, dependent on the amount of low level saturation. Still appears the highest chances for any precipitation will be south of a Knox City to Seymour to Archer City, Texas line. The lower atmosphere will remain very dry and the upper system not very strong, so if any precipitation occurs, it would be very light. The northerly mid-level flow will persist all weak and bring a cooler airmass into Oklahoma following a front Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will continue to very slowly diminish overnight and Wednesday as the low slowly fills while moving away from the region. We have continued the advisory starting at midnight tonight in anticipation of accumulating snows in the higher terrain. With continued strong flow across the north shore terrain ridge overnight and Wednesday morning, we could also see the redevelopment of the gravity wave forced snow band which would likely affect the favored areas in eastern Douglas and northwest Bayfield Counties.
Prolonged stretch of quiet weather in store for the foreseeable future as deep longwave trough axis stays positioned near the Great Lakes.
23z sfc analysis shows a strong cold front exiting the area to the east as a cold high pressure area quickly spreads in from the southwest. Colder air is now pouring into the CWA on west to northwest winds with temperatures continuing to fall - from the upper 30s in the far west to the lower 50s in the east currently. A cold front continues to move southeast across the area. Once the front passes colder air will push into the area and weak surface ridging will build into the area from the southwest.
A ridge of high pressure has moved in along the Pacific coastline and will control the weather pattern for the entire forecast period. The western slope will remain on the eastern fringes of this ridge, resulting in northwest flow aloft and temperatures running near seasonal averages in the short term.
They may die down for a time early Wednesday as the pressure gradient slacks slightly with a weak trough passing to the south. The large upper trough will extend south across the Great Lakes. This could bring a few flurries as the higher 850 mb sags south.
1029 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A strong cold front moving into the forecast area late tonight will reach the coast Wednesday.
Wouldn't expect more than a dusting of snow on the higher peaks at this point. On the plains, a cold front will push south across the area early Wednesday morning, with gusty northerly winds and colder temperatures.
Temperatures overnight will be warmer due to mixing and some clouds. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 30s /north/ to near 40 across our far south. A reinforcing cold front will also drop through western Nebraska Wednesday night and bring chillier lows in the low to mid teens.
509 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold air advection continuing across the region this afternoon following yesterday's cold frontal passage. The bigger story will arrive Wednesday night when a secondary shot of cold air surges south over the lower Missouri Valley following the passage of a reinforcing cold front.
Cold front extending south of KAPY to Sarita line moving steadily south. /issued 250 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): A strong cold front is just north of the CWA this afternoon, anchored by a 1031 mb high over north Texas and Oklahoma. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s, and won't recover very much on Wednesday, as the connection to high pressure from the Pacific Northwest and the Canadian Rockies continues.
A large upper level trough is over the Upper Midwest with a portion of it extending southwestward over Southern California. This southwest extension of the upper trough will start to move eastward this evening and will provide additional lift over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. MOS guidance is showing low temperatures below freezing at MAF tonight but think moisture values will be too high for this to be the case. A chance of freezing rain will remain possible across some of the higher terrain with surface temperatures cooler there.
1027 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Currently - High pressure moving eastward away from the Atlantic coast is producing light to gentle east breezes across the Florida Keys. Ridging remains in place through the mid levels. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain light to gentle out of the east as the ridge over the Atlantic will continue to trail a ridge across the Florida Peninsula. The environment will remain supportive of isolated small showers with temperatures settling into the lower to mid 70s. Gentle mostly east breezes are expected over Keys waters through the overnight period due to a ridge axis to our north.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 47 35 47 / 30 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 46 32 45 / 50 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 46 31 45 / 30 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 44 28 42 / 70 10 0 0.
Temperatures will slowly rebound through this weekend as high pressure builds across the region. Clear, dry, chilly, and breezy conditions will remain in place through the short term period as high pressure builds across the region.
cold and blustery conditions prevail with westerly winds of 25 to 40+ mph and temperatures in the lower to middle 30s with isolated flurries.
This top-down moistening will likely end up favoring snow for the dominant precipitation type on the Caprock, while off the Cap that extra depth might keep surface temperatures at or slightly above freezing and should favor a snow/rain mix, if not entirely rain.
526 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 The upper air pattern continues to transition such that a deep trough will be located over the eastern CONUS. The first of several embedded disturbances will rotate across the area tonight within the developing longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS.
Main theme for the next couple of days will be for the upper energy over the northern Rockies to quickly dive southeast and further enhance the upper trough from eastern Quebec into the central Rockies. As this trough continues to dig, an additional surge of cold air will spill south Wed evening into Thu morning. By Fri afternoon, upper trough axis will extend from the eastern Great Lakes into southern TX with strong northerly flow over the Plains. For the weekend, upper trough will continue to migrate east with northwest flow remaining over the Plains. A surface trof and cold front will move south across the area on Wednesday.
A dry pattern will persist through the weekend as a meridional flow aloft develops across the Western High Plains downstream of an increasingly amplified upper level ridge across the Intermountain West.
High amplitude pattern establishes itself over the conus through this period, with deep troughing across the east and a sharp ridge along the west coast.
This will lead to continued chilly overnight temperatures throughout interior valley areas, likely reaching near or slightly below freezing in some cases. However, ridgetops will warm gradually as high pressure builds and temperatures above the surface warm. " This ridge of high pressure also means that no meaningful rainfall is expected for the foreseeable future. Through Wednesday, pronounced high pressure ridging will persist as the primary weather feature across the region.
525 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A sharp cold front will arrive early Wednesday bringing rainfall and plummeting afternoon temperatures.
Light southwest surface winds will trend to west and northwest as a weak cold front arrives before sunrise. /Issued 224 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017/ Upper level positively tilted trough that lies from southern California into northwest Oklahoma is expected to continue to move southward away from the Panhandles overnight. The precip associated with this trough will likely stay to the south of our area. The upper level pattern will be dominated by a trough over the eastern U. and a ridge over the West Coast of the United States.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather for tonight across South Florida. Another dry day is expected for Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. /issued 358 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017/ An area of high pressure will continue to bring mainly dry weather to the region for tonight. On Wednesday the pattern will begin to shift as the winds begin to veer to the southeast and then the south southeast as a cold front approaches from the north.
522 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold front exits early tonight.
A surface cold front extends from Ontario all the way down to the Gulf Coast states. This cold front has cleared the lower Ohio Valley region, and temperatures have been steadily falling through the morning and afternoon due to strong CAA behind the front.
829 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Atlantic high pressure continues to ridge southwest over the area producing light winds overnight and rain-free conditions. Models are still in line with an approaching cold front from the northwest on Wednesday moving through the panhandle during the afternoon and approaching the Nature Coast with rainshowers starting by tomorrow evening. Winds and seas begin to increase Wednesday night through the end of the week, as a cold front moves slowly southward across the waters, with periods of cautionary to advisory conditions and showers likely.
645 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold front and associated band of shallow convection is a bit slow advancing across north Georgia this afternoon. Would not expect any significant accumulations, however the higher elevations of the north Georgia mountains may see a little.
804 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A cold front will sweep across the area this evening. The cold front is just entering western PA as of 00Z/7PM. Lows will drop into the 20s over the north, and remain above freezing over the SE. Global model and ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement on the maintenance of high latitude blocking pattern featuring an amplified ridge-trough configuration over the West Coast and eastern NOAM. Finally, there appears to be multiple waves of low pressure lifting north along a western Atlantic front from late week into the early weekend timeframe, with guidance varying on specifics.
Main theme for the next couple of days will be for the upper energy over the northern Rockies to quickly dive southeast and further enhance the upper trough from eastern Quebec into the central Rockies. As this trough continues to dig, an additional surge of cold air will spill south Wed evening into Thu morning. By Fri afternoon, upper trough axis will extend from the eastern Great Lakes into southern TX with strong northerly flow over the Plains. For the weekend, upper trough will continue to migrate east with northwest flow remaining over the Plains. Surface winds will back slightly tonight to the southwest ahead of a trof, before veering northwest in its wake on Tuesday.
620 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain will taper off with the departure of the cold front. A cold front is rapidly sweeping eastward through the area this evening, having passed Pittsburgh in the last hour. Thus, lows dropping back just a few degrees below freezing seem most likely given upstream trends.
The second mentioned wave and associated reinforcing cold front move across the forecast area on Wednesday, and will have a small chance of snow or flurries as it continues to move south. Temps will be cooler Wednesday than today. Breezy northwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph Wed make it feel much cooler.
Main theme for the next couple of days will be for the upper energy over the northern Rockies to quickly dive southeast and further enhance the upper trough from eastern Quebec into the central Rockies. As this trough continues to dig, an additional surge of cold air will spill south Wed evening into Thu morning. By Fri afternoon, upper trough axis will extend from the eastern Great Lakes into southern TX with strong northerly flow over the Plains. For the weekend, upper trough will continue to migrate east with northwest flow remaining over the Plains. Surface winds will back slightly tonight to the southwest ahead of a trof, before veering northwest in its wake on Wednesday.
626 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A strong cold front moving into the forecast area late tonight will reach the coast Wednesday.
504 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017 Broad upper trough is persisting across the eastern half of the CONUS while upper ridging/Rex blocking pattern has set up over the western CONUS and Pacific Coast. Next upper wave near the MT/Canadian border will swing through late tonight bringing a reinforcing cold front to the area. A slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the region with highs reaching into the 50s by the end of the week.
631 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold front exits early tonight.
726 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A strong cold front moving into the forecast area late tonight will reach the coast Wednesday.
551 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 The short term concern is cloud/flurry trend into the evening and then timing of the next short wave trough dropping south over the area Wednesday. Clouds and flurries remain over the eastern cwa this afternoon as the cold trough exits to the east. Will develop some lower end PoPs to the northeast and spread those west and south into Wednesday as the next trough moves south. The longer term trends remain on the cool side with the north/northwest flow continuing with the eastern CONUS trough in control. Periodic cold fronts will drop south in the flow pattern every 24 hours or so with small end chances for some light snow/flurries.
640 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 23z sfc analysis shows a strong cold front exiting the area to the east as a cold high pressure area quickly spreads in from the southwest. Colder air is now pouring into the CWA on west to northwest winds with temperatures continuing to fall - from the upper 30s in the far west to the lower 50s in the east currently. A cold front continues to move southeast across the area. Once the front passes colder air will push into the area and weak surface ridging will build into the area from the southwest.
Temps and dewpoints are cooling off a bit faster than models indicated, so adjusted hourly temps and dewpoints along with the overnight lows a bit cooler. Showers have moved off to the east, and looking for drier air to continue moving in behind the cold front.
Very potent upper level low is evident on WV imagery near the IA/NE/KS/MO border with the dry slot punching as far north as just south of Sioux City. Latest guidance continues to slow the eastward progression of the upper low, and thus have raised evening snow chances along and east of I-29. Wouldn't be surprised to see a period of a bit of freezing drizzle on the back side of the system as the ice growth zone dries out and lower levels remain saturated.
726 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Rain chances will increase later tonight and Sunday with the approach of a cold front.
Ridging aloft moves in over eastern Utah and western Colorado by Sunday mid-morning.
As northerly based high pressure influences build into the mid state region on Mon night, patchy frost will be possible across eastern portions of the mid state region with patchy frost possible across western portions in the lower lying locations. A cold front will drag slowly across the mid state overnight, although the wind shift will be slow to materialize.
The High Wind Warning remains in effect through the evening with high confidence in strong gusts continuing due to deep layer momentum transfer of the 850-700 mb wind layer winds in excess of 50 knots.
Freezing rain tonight is not completely rule out, but ice introduction aloft will be present once the wrap around precipitation reaches the area. If that occurs, it will be on elevated surfaces, exposed to the wind (for cooling to subfreezing).
Last night's cold frontal boundary has resulted breezy west-northwest early this evening /10-15 kts sustained/, but a notable declination will occur shortly after sunset at all terminals /below 10 kts/. Do expect another LWA to be issued areawide Sunday as upstream winds around base of trough have been gusting well over 40 kts around, and to the north of the panhandle region.
/issued 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ In the wake of an occluding cyclone over Kansas City, strong NW winds were slowly pulling away from the South Plains. As dry and cool surface ridging builds south into the region overnight, decoupling of winds should ensure a widespread light freeze for all of the area.
Low pressure is well east of the region, however, effects from the storm are still being felt across the region. For Sunday, winds will be significantly lower as upper level ridging builds across the west central US.
A cold front will move through the Southern Appalachian Region this TAF period.
/issued 244 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ Currently slow moving cold front was nearly to the Mississippi River with scattered light showers redeveloping out ahead. Temperatures were in the 60s across the area with gusty west winds ushering in cooler 40s and 50s behind the front in Central and Western Arkansas. Morning windchills near freezing for many.
At this time, it looks like two more significant upper level low pressure troughs will affect our CWA from Sunday night through Saturday.
The cirrus shield should start to pull further south and east tonight as the low pressure system slowly moves into the mid Mississippi Valley. Highs should be similar to today and mainly in the 30s, maybe a couple of degrees warmer in the west where more sun will be available.
/Issued 359 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ Cloudy and rather chilly conditions today as strong upper trough continues to progress eastwards across the central conus. Early afternoon satellite and surface observations indicated that cold front has made it to Gulf with much cooler air filtering in behind the front. Cold air will continue to work in on the backside of the trough and even with significant cloud cover overnight. Another cool day is in store for Sunday as system slowly moves towards the lower Great Lakes. Lingering cloud cover across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas may keep temperatures several degrees cooler than those areas that have cleared given the spring-time solar angle.
have decided to cancel the High Wind Warning. Bias corrected grids seem to have some handle on this and blending the better performing models suggests highs ranging from the low to mid 40s along the KS/NE border to around 60/low 60s across the far southwest and south.
659 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 The center of the upper low continues to track east across northeastern Kansas. This translates to highs in the lower to mid 30s for our Nebraska side, and maybe around 40 in our north central Kansas area.
There will continue to be a tropically connected train of rainfall streaming into/across our eastern third of the FA thru the overnight hours, as the upper Low spins toward us from the west. The occluding surface features will move east of the FA by tmrw morning, and the upper Low will make its pass about 12-18 hours after that. After that, cooler/drier air works in/gradually down/throughout the column. Sunday night lows, despite lingering cloud and wind that will preclude widespread frost, drop to near freezing.