Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Across the BB/Lower Trans Pecos the atmosphere will have to hurry to recover, but there are indications of a shrtwv trof in water vapor imagery in NW Chihuahua, MX. 5h heights will slowly fall into Thur, but despite this 85h temps/thermal ridge will remain amplified and above normal temps will persist. By Fri/Sat said thermal ridge is much less so across the most of the PB, thus cooler.
This looks to result in heat indices perhaps climbing into the lower/mid 90s across NW/N cntrl AL.
140 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday.
The thunderstorms will exit the area to the east as the cold front pushes through sometime between 06 and 12Z with a few lingering showers left behind. Southwest winds and warm air advection will return fairly quickly for Wednesday as another trough develops to our west.
Dry and warmer weather follows for Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Models cont to indicate highly amplified upr level flow over the conus by late week with a deep wrn long wave trof and upstream ern ridge. Tricky short term period owing to pesky stalled upper low over northwest IN.
A transition into much more fall-like weather will occur this week as a cooler airmass from the Gulf of Alaska sweeps in.
Temps have already reached the lower 70s in the south and 60s in the north even with cloud cover, so will keep temps on track to top out in the upper 60s north to near 80 south. Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level jet around the south and east sides of the trough will shift east today. Stronger upper level jet will round the base of the trough and into the area after 06z Wed.
409 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. Could be a couple of showers off to our SW in a very weak and eroding trough, but only result for us will be potentially an increase in cloud cover over the Laurel Highlands. Max temps will once again range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower 80s (and maybe a few mid 80s) in the southeast. The GEFS forecasts showed this feature as a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights which will translate to well above normal temperatures.
352 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Currently, an upper level trough is becoming negatively tilted over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains as the associated trough axis pivots into the region. This is reinforcing frontal features at the surface with a warm front analyzed from the Dakotas into Iowa. A cold front is marching into western Nebraska and a dryline feature is extending from western KS into the TX panhandle. Temps also should be cooler over much of the area in the low to mid 80s. It is possible on the warmer side of the boundary that some of the counties in east central KS could reach into the upper 80s and around 90. 12Z GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement in slowly progressing the long wave trough over the western US eastward into the plains through the period.
/issued 950 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ Weak troughing remains over the Mid South today. Hot and humid weather will continue again today with highs reaching the lower 90s. /issued 248 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ Persistence will dominate the forecast for the upcoming seven days as an upper ridge remains over the middle part of the country.
hot and very dry conditions ensue for the entire area as a dry line/trough currently sits over the western half of the CWA. combined with a shift to the north for the winds as a result of the trough moving east. region will see a nice cooler and dry day with NNE flow working thru the area.
This is due to an increasing low level jet aiding lift with warm air advection in the low levels coupled with thetae advection. This is a big reason why the highest pops, categorical and likely, are still warranted generally north of Interstate 90, with rapidly decreasing pops heading south of I 90. Initially, discrete cells should form along the low level wind shift, ahead of the short wave, early this evening in our far western zones.
Precipitation associated with a frontal boundary and mid-level wave to our northwest continues to struggle as it bumps into high pressure over our region. Any eastward motion of the high continues to be blocked by Hurricane Jose in the Atlantic. After the wave exits, ridging will become even more firmly entrenched over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes as a deep trough develops over the northwest U.
Isolated showers and storms over the low rolling plains may increase as diurnal heating continues and could be near SPS/LAW/HBR/CSM later this afternoon. The attendant cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon, which will cool temperatures slightly across the northwest; however, for most locations, hot temperatures (~10F above average) will prevail. Temperatures might even be a littler hotter than on Tuesday with a low-level thermal ridge ahead of the front. The cold front will return back north as a warm front Wednesday night.
326 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 High pressure at the surface over the eastern third of the country with upper ridging over the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley this afternoon is getting squeezed by a trough over the Rockies and Hurricanes Jose and Maria to the east.
Drier air will move in through mid week ahead of the approaching trough.
135 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Large scale mid-upper trough is in place over the Pacific northwest, with southwest flow deepening into the Central High Plains. Ahead of this trough southwest flow and increasing deep gradient will support unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures and windy conditions today.
333 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Pattern remains in transition with weak ridge through the lower Mississippi Valley and weak ridging into the Great Lakes and Jose underneath off the coast of Long Island. Broad trough from the Pacific Northwest into the Dakotas from upper low over central Canada. Closer you get to the trough axis the lighter the winds. Highs on Wednesday only in the 70s as cooler air filters in behind a dry cool front. Wednesday cooler with highs in the 70s and mainly clear skies behind the cold front.
659 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. Could be a couple of showers off to our SW in a very weak and eroding trough, but only result for us will be potentially an increase in cloud cover over the Laurel Highlands. Max temps will once again range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower 80s (and maybe a few mid 80s) in the southeast. The GEFS forecasts showed this feature as a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights which will translate to well above normal temperatures.
An upper level low will dominate the western US through this week. There is a slight chance of rain in the far North Bay Wednesday morning as a frontal system moves through otherwise look for dry and breezy conditions with cooler than average temperatures. An upper level low pressure system centered near 53N, 138W, or about 750 miles NW of Seattle, is largely responsible for maintaining below normal temperatures in our area, as well as helping to produce moderate precipitation for parts of Oregon and Washington State over the next few days. While most of the San Francisco Bay Area and central California coast won't see any precipitation, winds are forecast to increase over much of the area with some of the ridges and higher elevations likely to see wind gusts in excess of 30 or 35 mph.
A weak cold front will move through between 10-13Z Wednesday switching winds from southwesterly to northerly. The upper flow will transition from zonal today to southwesterly Wednesday as a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest digs southward over the Great Basin region later this week. A cold front is expected to push through the Panhandles later today and Wednesday morning.
An isolated thunderstorm will be possible through this evening, but with 500 mb warmer than -6.
High pressure will make for dry weather conditions tonight across northeast Montana with clearing skies.
340 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A weak upper level trough will slowly dissipate through Wednesday. High pressure will then build over the area then dominate the weather the rest of the week. Showers/thunderstorms have increased across NW Ohio this afternoon near a 7H trough/low that will only slowly dissipate into Wednesday.
Moisture will remain elevated near this trough so PoPs will remain necessary from south Brevard to Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast overnight. Otherwise it will be a little drier across the north and min temps are expected in the lower 70s, with maybe even a few upper 60s around the Ocala National Forest. Weak moisture convergence zone left over from old frontal trough will keep PoPs elevated over our southern counties (Treasure coast/Okeechobee). The 12Z GFS and ECMWF models continue to show Maria lifting northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge carved out by trough trailing from Jose. High pressure ridge to the north of the waters will produce an onshore flow around 10 knots Wed and Thu, except 10-15 knots near a weak trough/convergence zone lingering over the southern/central waters.
Overnight lows in the low 70s are expected across the region tonight.
556 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Midsummer-like conditions have returned to the area under strong warm and moist air advection in the lower levels. Cold front will progress through the area tonight and Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures.
209 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A weak trough will cross the forecast area from the west tonight and tomorrow.
Lows tonight will fall into the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast.
354 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature across Vermont and northern New York during the next 5 to 7 days. The quiet weather conditions will continue through the near term with a fairly narrow but strong high pressure ridge anchored over the region. This ridge will keep the brunt of the effects from Jose southeast of the forecast area. 12z guidance suite all in agreement that the high pressure ridge will keep us high and dry.
142 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017 19z surface analysis had low near KPIR with pre-frontal trough into central NE and cold front into east central WY. 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE has developed over central SD ahead of pre-frontal trough with Td/s in the mid-upper 60s. It'll be a race between the pre-frontal trough and synoptic lift as to whether strong instability and shear can be realized over south central SD late this afternoon.
613 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A weak upper level trough will slowly dissipate through Wednesday. High pressure will then build over the area then dominate the weather the rest of the week. Showers/thunderstorms have increased across NW Ohio this afternoon near a 7H trough/low that will only slowly dissipate into Wednesday.
253 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. Could be a couple of showers off to our SW in a very weak and eroding trough, but only result for us will be potentially an increase in cloud cover over the Laurel Highlands. Max temps will once again range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower 80s (and maybe a few mid 80s) in the southeast.
307 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A weak upper level trough will move into the area on Wednesday and will linger while gradually dissipating through the end of the week. Expect mostly clear skies as the low level flow will back to a more west-nw direction, advecting a slightly drier air mass which should inhibit the formation of widespread low clouds and fog.
Weak high pressure over the area providing fair weather with light winds today. Ahead of a trough a few sprinkles will be possible over western zones this afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid/upper 60s inland to the lower 70s coast. Scattered showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon over interior se Ga as upper trough moves closer.
204 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Aviation A weakening area of low pressure will track through southern parts of Lower Michigan today. An area of high pressure shows up for Wednesday resulting in mainly dry conditions.
534 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 High pressure will persist across northern New England as Jose meanders well off the New England coast tonight and through the end of the week.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are on going between Aberdeen and Mobridge. The 500mb pattern shows a large 500mb low over southwestern Canada, with a trough set up across much of the western U. The lower clouds will slowly diminish through the late morning hours. Will be watching to our west for areas of clearing ahead of the nearing cold front, where convection should be developing around 21Z this afternoon.
An upper level low will dominate the western US through this week. There is a slight chance of rain in the far North Bay Wednesday morning as a frontal system moves through otherwise look for dry and breezy conditions with cooler than average temperatures. Visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds covering the northern half of the county warning area as a longwave upper level trough continues to approach the West Coast. Temperatures this morning are running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than they were at this time yesterday with observed lows generally in the 50s. An upper level low is over the Pacific Northwest. 850 mb temps have dropped a few degrees C since yesterday so highs today will be about 3-5 degrees cooler.
The abundant low level moisture, AOB 700mb, is sufficient for continued diurnal a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms but the persistent 500mb ridge and elevated drier air to keep a cap on any significant increase in convection the next 36 hours. Temperatures to remain above normal with the mid level ridge in place with heat indices well above normal due to the higher then normal dew points.
At the surface, a cold front extends through the central Dakotas into the western High Plains. The aforementioned cold front will push through central Iowa tomorrow morning and afternoon.
600 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Upper level high pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
146 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A strong cold front will bring windy conditions Wednesday, with well below average temperatures continuing through the weekend.
1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 At 3 AM, weak 850 mb moisture convergence associated with the low level jet is resulting in scattered showers along north of the Interstate 94 corridor in Wisconsin. For tonight, the 850 mb moisture transport will increase dramatically ahead of an approaching longwave trough. As the main short wave energy ahead of this trough ejects into northern Minnesota, this line will slow and weaken as it moves east across eastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. On Wednesday, a cold front will push east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Cooler temperatures are in store for north central Wisconsin Wednesday due to clouds, rain and the front, but the rest of the area should be warmer than today. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday night as a cold front sweeps through the western Great Lakes.
Wednesday will be a break between storm systems, and then a cold upper trough will move into Utah starting Wednesday night.
503 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. Could be a couple of showers off to our SW in a very weak and eroding trough, but only result for us will be potentially an increase in cloud cover over the Laurel Highlands. Max temps will once again range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower 80s (and maybe a few mid 80s) in the southeast. The GEFS forecasts showed this feature as a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights which will translate to well above normal temperatures.
Weak high pressure builds late week through the weekend. A weak upper level short wave trough moving across the area this afternoon and Wednesday, may end the broken record of overnight and early morning dense valley fog, although still have some fog in the forecast. The short wave, and the tail end of a warm front lifting through the Great Lakes, was producing a patchwork of showers in a band from Ohio southward, through eastern KY and central TN. Continue to carry a slight chance for showers tonight as the short wave trough moves over the area, with coverage increasing a bit Wednesday afternoon per diurnal heating, and the feature moving east.
Broad ridging and warm H85 temps near 20C have hindered much in the way of thunderstorm development. Temperatures will range in the low to mid 90s across the Coastal Plains to the mid to upper 90s to even near 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains during the afternoon.
345 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nern Gulf maintaining a moist onshore low-level flow. Water vapor imagery continues to show a more zonal flow in place aloft as a longwave trof continues pushing ewd across the Rockies. Seasonal POPs remain in the forecast through the remainder of the period as sufficient moisture lingers and interacts with a developing shear axis aloft thanks to deepening trof over the wrn along with Jose spinning off the middle Atlantic coast.
323 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Cold front moving into the plains currently and will move across the Panhandle by early this evening.
228 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 The main issue in the short term is the passage of a cold front tonight across the area. trough.
Drier conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend as upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. Even though an upper ridge is trying to dominate the region, there appears that there will be enough sfc convergence that pop-up convection can't be ruled out.
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday.
Winds are expected to die down overnight as valley regions decouple, however the higher terrain especially in the north will hold on to a stiff westerly breeze.
With increased atmospheric moisture being tempered somewhat by weak uppper ridging, overall coverage is expected to be about the same or perhaps just a bit higher than today. Surface analysis showing weak high pressure holding across the area. Flow remains southerly in the lower levels maintaining steady influx of gulf moisture and feeding the ongoing fog development.
Weak high pressure builds late week through the weekend. A weak upper level short wave trough moving across the area this afternoon and Wednesday, may end the broken record of overnight and early morning dense valley fog, although still have some fog in the forecast. The short wave, and the tail end of a warm front lifting through the Great Lakes, was producing a patchwork of showers in a band from Ohio southward, through eastern KY and central TN. Continue to carry a slight chance for showers tonight as the short wave trough moves over the area, with coverage increasing a bit Wednesday afternoon per diurnal heating, and the feature moving east. A cold front will stall or dissipate just northwest of the area.
213 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 High pressure will persist across northern New England as Jose meanders well off the New England coast tonight and through the end of the week.
Medium range, a pattern like this with high pressure centered north and east of the area opens us up to easterly waves.
Ridging along the southern tier of states remains centered over the southern Plains. The high resolution HRRR is indc isolated convection along the Davis/Guadalupe/Sacramento Mountains in the aftn into the early evening.
A frontal boundary extended from low pressure over southeast Iowa westward across southern Nebraska. Highs today will again top out in the 95 to 104 degree range with the warmer temperatures near central Kansas. By Wednesday afternoon, a subtle upper trough across the Northern Plains will begin to slowly push the stalled surface boundary southward into portions of south central NE and north central KS. Southerly flow will continue to usher Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Central Plains with dew points approaching the lower 70s F.
356 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 There will be two areas for possible convective development this afternoon as the ridge of high pressure loosens its grip across North and Central Texas. As will be the story for much of the week, lows tonight will remain in the low to mid 70s, except around the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex where the heat island effect will keep lows in the upper 70s.
A few high based storms have formed over the higher terrain in Carbon and Albany Counties but not much in the way of precipitation with these cells.
Upper level low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan will continue to aid isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours, diminishing after midnight. Wednesday: High pressure ridge begins to rebuild over the region with warming MAX temps and decreasing Min RH values.
Forecast area will be under a dry southwest flow at the end of the week with the Four Corners in place and an upper level trough off the Canadian coast.
1233 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Imagery shows broad low amplitude trof/ridge/trof across the CONUS with current ridge axis located from ND south through the Central Plains. Split relatively weak jets positioned across WY and another slightly stronger jet over MT with a minor SW trof moving with the flow across MT and far nrn WY. SFC has low pressure peppered across much of the wrn CONUS with what looks like the beginning of the summer monsoon beginning to show (SFC and aloft). "Closer to home", low pressure centered over scntrl Canada has associated fronts stretching to the nw corner of WY (cold) and the other (warm) draped swd through the Dakotas and into NE.
The 925 mb analysis showed a sharp ridge from central FL through Tallahassee, and up to Huntsville. Scattered convection was already developing across southeast AL, indicating that there may already be enough low- level convergence on the west side of the aforementioned ridge to begin convection early there and in the FL Panhandle. The latest HRRR runs suggest minimal PoPs for the Tallahassee area this afternoon, due to either the low-level ridge in place, or the disruption of the sea breeze circulation by morning convection, or a combination of both.
1212 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with cool front from western ND to northwest WY and southern ID. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow now over the area as high pressure weakens over the southern Plains and moves eastward. Wednesday will be a little cooler behind the front, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The heat will return as the ridge and high pressure rebuild over the intermountain west and the Rockies.
A cold front will approach and then move through the region late this week, bringing additional thunderstorm chances. As this happens surface cyclogenesis will occur over the midwest with a warm front extending southeast into central Ohio.