Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Relatively quiet late this afternoon, with latest radar imagery showing isolated showers and storms mainly over the higher terrain. The low chance for an isolated stronger storm or two across the far southeast plains, especially Baca county, is appearing to lower even further at this time. The drier air in place will still be present on Sunday, with shower and thunderstorm chances likely remaining confined to the higher terrain. Warmer temps expected on Sunday, with the highest temps in the mid to upper 90s noted over the eastern plains.
755 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Lingering monsoon moisture still allowed for sct showers and storms over the higher terrain this aftn, but these have ended in this evening No additional activity is expected overnight. An upper level trof will be moving over the norther high plains with limited impact on Colorado weather. A ridge will build up over the western states early this week, centered generally over the Great Basin, and probably remain in place through the period. This will mean hot and mostly dry conditions again across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations.
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2022 A large area of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes into New England offering dry weather overnight.
Otherwise, upper and surface ridging will produce VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 91 72 91 72 / 10 20 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 93 70 92 71 / 10 20 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 91 70 92 70 / 0 20 10 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 89 67 89 67 / 10 20 0 30 20.
Localized valley fog Sunday morning and isolated convection Sunday afternoon, mainly across the higher elevations. Discussion: The upper ridge axis is across our region today with WV imagery showing the strong subsidence across the Southern Appalachians. Isolated convection will be possible into the evening, mainly across the higher elevations. Upper ridge remains across the region on Sunday with low-level heights slightly higher than today. Expect it to remain mostly sunny once again with afternoon cumulus and isolated convection, mainly across the higher elevations. Some isolated thunderstorms could have gusty winds as DCAPE values will be on the high side, above 900 J/Kg, across much of the area aided by the drier mid- levels. With the slightly increase in boundary layer temperatures, believe that afternoon max temperatures will be about a degree warmer on Sunday afternoon.
634 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Weather conditions will begin a slow, temporary return to normal temperature-wise through the rest of the weekend as broad ridging to our west, and troughing to our northeast leaves somewhat diffluent flow aloft across the Ark-La-Tex. Until then, minimum temperatures are expected tonight in the low to mid-70s with light southerly winds. By tomorrow night, convective activity will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clearer skies and allowing slightly cooler temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s near normal for this time of the year.
Lacy (Tonight through Saturday) The latest data suggests the activity on Sunday will pose the greatest threat for locally heavy rainfall as the near 2" PWAT axis in association with the upper trof slides overhead.
Otherwise, expect a dry/mild night with lows bottoming out in the lower 70s in most locations.
Strongest convection (not severe) as of 8pm is over the eastern third of our cwa, but there remains some activity to the west along cold front which is starting to drop into our cwa from the northwest. Satellite imagery shows an upper low over southern Alberta, and although greatest forcing w/ this feature will stay to our north, we will see some PV advection swing thru our region later this evening and overnight. Tomorrow will be cooler w/ breezy NW winds (strongest over our east). JKL Short wave trough over Alberta will drop into NE Montana by evening. Sunday will be cooler behind the wave. Highs will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today with readings generally 75 to around 80 degrees.
Temperatures across eastern Kansas have climbed into the low 90s while temperatures have struggled to get out of the mid 80s across north-central Kansas where cloud cover has limited warming. With the slow progression of the trough axis to the north, temperatures Monday afternoon will still be able to get into the mid 90s.
400 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022 This morning an upper-level trough is digging across the Upper Midwest with north and central GA beneath an upper-level high with a Bermuda high inching in over the area from the Atlantic. High temperatures this afternoon will warm into the lower 80s and upper 90s area wide with lows falling into the 70s and mid 60s across the northeastern Georgia mountains.
(Sunday through Monday) An upper-level trough axis in the the Gulf of Mexico combined with an approaching trough swinging east across the Midwest will allow for sufficient instability for afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Similar conditions expected again on Monday as upper-trough across the mid-CONUS merges with elongated trough in the Gulf of Mexico contributing to fairly generous rain chances during the afternoon across the entire ArkLaTex with high temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
- Winds: Surface winds: Apart from any possible convective influences during the latter half of the period, direction should remain generally southerly through around 03Z, after which time a weak cold front will switch things to north-northeasterly.
The low clouds have lifted across the FA, with a few patches of mid level clouds hanging around. Any stronger activity should hold off until the afternoon, as a cold front moves east of the Red River. As the primary wave impacting us tomorrow and Monday pushes out of the area, large scale ridging will keep impacts to a minimum. Accompanied with this wave will be some showers and thunderstorms on the backside of the low. Most of the precipitation on the backside will be tied closer to the low pressure itself, which should primarily impact the northern half of the area Monday. For the rest of the period, large scale ridging takes over once again.
1107 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Latest surface analysis is showing that the warm front was located roughly along Cape Girardeau-Columbia-Des Moines line. The chance will wane during the afternoon before increasing again late on Sunday night with the approach of the next trough. The lows the next two nights will be relatively warm with lows in the low to mid 70s. Britt There is good agreement with the operational runs of the global models that a upper trough will move from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday night. This will bring an attendant cold front across the CWA on Monday night. Will keep high chance and likely PoPS Monday into Monday evening given expected ascent from the trough and low level convergence along and ahead of the front.
Generally isolated convection will occur over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today as deep tropical moisture and daytime heating will interact with a mid-level inverted trough that will approach from the east.
Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge is over the east coast this morning with an upper trough over the Plains. By tonight, the trough will extend from the upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. This trough will be slow to move east through Monday night. Expect humid conditions today and Monday ahead of the next cold front. This next cold front in the northern Plains will move southeast and by Monday evening will be located in northern Missouri and eastern Kansas.
The second and third rounds are due to a upper level low that looks to ride the International Border as it moves east, and a weak surface cold front. The upper level winds will be from the northwest tonight, as we are on the back side of the aforementioned upper level low. Low temperatures tonight because of a surface cold front and the northwest flow, will be in the low 50s in the west and near 60 in the east. A general ridging pattern continues across the Northern Plains this week. With the ridge axis to the west, the thermal ridge will also mainly be to our west. Still, temperatures in the later part of the week should hit the lower 90s in the west and central.
A corridor of warmer, moist air extending from southeast Nebraska through western Iowa was evident in observations with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Southerly flow will continue to draw warm air into the region on Sunday, ahead of an advancing cold front. Better support for rain will likely occur when the low level jet kicks in. The remainder of the week looks to be pretty dry, with our forecast area wedged between a ridge over the western CONUS and a trough to our east. A cold front is forecast to move into northeast Nebraska Sunday evening where a few showers and thunderstorms could develop as a nocturnal low- level jet increases.
A slow moving cold front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms early this week, though areas east of I-55 stand a decent chance of staying dry today. Latest water vapor imagery showing a weak trough extending from Minnesota to Kansas, with a stronger upper low across north central Montana. Upper level troughing over the north central U. will sharpen tonight and Monday, as the low begins to open up over western Ontario and lifts northward. Full passage of the associated cold front through our area will take until late Monday night as the trough shifts east. The large upper ridge over the western CONUS will result in a northwest wind flow over us aloft, which will bring much drier air into the Midwest.
Temps will probably be a bit warmer Monday, especially in the east with more time for heating before the front moves through.
1048 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The H700-500mb mean trough axis currently extends from the main vorticity maxima, which is just east of North Platte (NE), to Goodland (KS) and to just west of Raton (NM). As seen on the CIRA Advected Layer Precipitable Water imagery over the past few hours, the plume of higher moisture content (ahead of the trough axis) has shifted into western Oklahoma with the deepest PWAT layer (CWA-wide) located over northwest Oklahoma. This trough slowly shifts eastward with PWAT values at roughly 1. Meanwhile, the trough vorticity maxima nears this area and the LLJ strengthens. Precipitation should taper off Sunday morning with shower/storm chances returning Sunday afternoon as the southern extent of the trough lags across the area.
919 PM PDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Developing low pressure, along the West Coast this weekend, will help build the marine layer, and spread areas of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog well inland. It will be cooler through Sunday, then begin to warm on Monday, as high pressure builds aloft. Some modest cooling is possible into the holiday weekend as the high weakens and opens the door to a weak monsoonal flow, but confidence in this pattern bringing us any precipitation is quite low. Remainder of Previous Discussion (issued at 145 PM PDT): The weather pattern through Monday will be dominated by an upper level trough off the coast. This will result in cooler conditions along with a formidable marine layer as onshore flow remains established.
The first batch is across the high terrain of the Davis Mtns with agitated cumulus finally culminating into something over the past 30 min. High temperatures in the 90s for much of the region with 100+ along the lower RGV. Tomorrow is more of the same as today, although a little warmer and the presence of any remnant boundaries today will project a better risk for convection across Lea county in NM, as well as the western half of the Permian Basin as most hi-res guidance indicates.
325 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Key Message: Another day of early morning fog, followed by an afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Expect fog density and coverage to be less than yesterday morning with the warmer temperatures and less rainfall. Fairly persistence forecast with the ridge remaining overhead in the mid levels and the lower levels staying moderately moist with flow out of the south/southeast. Some increased mid level dry air with the ridge overhead could lead to an increase of DCAPE values with some of the storms, so gusty downbursts are possible under the strongest storms today.
Monday, a mid level disturbance supported by a long wave trough at 300mb will push into the CWA. The higher PW values do indicate that any thunderstorms that do develop will be efficient rain makers.
A deep upper trough will move east and push a cold front across the cwa Monday night. ECMWF/GFS show this trough taking on a bit of a negative tilt with time and would imply an increased heavy rain threat. Given the moisture, lift from both the short wave and approaching cold front, and instability, Monday afternoon and evening will be a favored time for storms. The cold front will move though late Monday night and take the precipitation with it.
Tonight Through Monday H500 ridging to the east will begin to yield to an approaching trough making its way from the Central/Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes through Monday.
1145 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Lingering monsoon moisture still allowed for sct showers and storms over the higher terrain this aftn, but these have ended in this evening No additional activity is expected overnight. An upper level trof will be moving over the norther high plains with limited impact on Colorado weather. A ridge will build up over the western states early this week, centered generally over the Great Basin, and probably remain in place through the period. This will mean hot and mostly dry conditions again across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations.
A weak trough near the Bahamas will transverse the Key and local waters today and usher in deep tropical moisture to the area. The instability provided by the weak trough coupled with rich low-level moisture and local effects will bring about showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
145 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022 A large area of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes into New England offering dry weather overnight.
The most likely area for strong to severe storms late this afternoon will likely be somewhere in the Highway 412 to Interstate 40 corridor the way it looks at this time.
The main upper level trof is expected to top the upstream ridge tonight and reach the forecast are Sunday night and Monday.
359 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Ridge of high pressure will hold over the region through Monday.
915 PM PDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Cooler weather is expected this weekend along with breezy to locally windy conditions today.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 91 72 90 / 20 10 40 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 70 92 71 90 / 20 10 30 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 91 70 92 70 90 / 20 10 30 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 89 67 88 / 20 0 30 20 70.
Gusty northwesterly winds with gusts of 30-35 mph will follow behind the front along with slightly cooler temperatures. Things will be slightly warmer on the western SD plains with highs in the low to mid 80s. Upper level trough axis pushes through later today with some FGEN at 700 mb along the SD/NE border. However, dry air present at the low levels indicate precipitation likely won't reach the ground. Upper level ridge builds in the west after today, bringing dry, northwest flow at the upper levels and southerly winds at the sfc. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning with winds shifting NW and becoming breezy at times.
Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 70s in the Houston Metro and along the coast (with the immediate coast remaining in the low 80s) and into the mid 70s across the rest of the area. Again, the storms will begin to move further inland through the afternoon, but the highest coverage will remain along the coast. Because of increased cloud coverage on Monday, expect daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. With temperatures not climbing as high during the day, temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler Monday night - though it will still be mild with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Cooler temperatures found in response to the frontal passage. As the upper level low that brought today's cold front moves off to the northeast, our flow will become northwest tonight. This will change to westerly Sunday night and then become southwesterly Monday as another upper level ridge builds into the region.
Upper level ridging continues to work its way into the southeastern US stemming from the west Atlantic ridge through Monday. By the end of the day Monday, upper level troughing will transit the north-central CONUS, attempting to have some influence on weak troughing extending into the south-central and southeastern US. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic dominates with the western periphery located over the southeastern US. Lows will be in the lower 70's.
As the trough along the US-Canadian border continues to push east this activity will be into the Dakotas by early morning. Behind the cold front, expect temperatures to be around 10 degrees cooler with highs around 80 degrees. As ridging builds in tomorrow, conditions will be quiet. Winds will be much lighter tomorrow under the ridge. Reimer Hot week ahead with upper level ridging.
Not much overall change expected to weather conditions through the first half of the week as ridging aloft and at the surface remain over the area with relatively weak flow and a moisture-rich atmosphere. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs around 90 along the coast and the low/mid 90s away from the coast, and balmy overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 along the coast. High pressure remains over the coastal waters for much of the period, with showers and a few storms forming over the waters during the morning hours and moving ashore into the afternoon before pushing back toward the coast during the evening.
An upper level trough is passing across western Kansas today. An upper level trough moving across the northern plains will push a front into western Kansas Monday. But a few locations could reach near 100 from Dodge City south and east, with cooler mid 90s to the north.
A sfc cold front is expected to move through this evening and provide a forcing mechanism with enhanced lift and synoptic support.
Temperatures got warmer than anticipated yesterday which led to more drying of the air mass. High pressure is starting to shift eastward towards the Coast, which will increase southerly flow across the area today.
246 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: In the short term, an upper level low will continue to make its way across southern Saskatchewan today bringing with it some wrap around precipitation and breezy conditions across the area. Behind this low, an upper level ridge will begin building over the western U.
Early morning temperatures range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees. There may be some patchy fog around sunrise with temperatures in the low to middle 70. A weak ridge has shifted closer to the East coast with weak southwest flow setting up across the Midsouth. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than yesterday do to rain and clouds, but most of us should climb back into the low 90s this afternoon. The trough is expected to deamplify a bit as it shifts across the Mississippi river valley and into the Great Lakes area.
/33/ (This evening through Sunday Night) Weather conditions will begin a slow, temporary return to normal temperature-wise through the rest of the weekend as broad ridging to our west, and troughing to our northeast leaves somewhat difluent flow aloft across the Ark-La-Tex. Until then, minimum temperatures are expected tonight in the low to mid-70s with light southerly winds. By tomorrow night, convective activity will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clearer skies and allowing slightly cooler temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s near normal for this time of the year.
Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction through tonight with lee troughing across eastern Colorado. A cold front will approach the northern forecast area overnight shifting winds to more of a northerly direction behind this feature. Thereafter, a strong upper level ridge will be the dominate feature above the Rockies with northwesterly flow above western Kansas.
Meanwhile, a deepening upper level trough will be approaching the Upper Midwest. This feature will bring an attendant southwest- northeast oriented cold front into the area Monday afternoon and night.
354 AM PDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Cooler and drier weather is expected Sunday.
/AJ/ Today and tonight: Weak mid-level ridging will continue to build into the ArkLaMiss region today, keeping a warm, moist airmass over the area. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 70s with mostly clear skies going into Monday.
This will drive a cold front southeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. After cold front moves across the area tonight into Monday morning, upper level ridging enters the area. Latest short term guidance has trended toward less activity in the area and keeps the highest chances east of the Missouri River with KOMA on the western fringes.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon with an upper trough approaching. Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge is over the east coast this morning with an upper trough over the Plains. By tonight, the trough will extend from the upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. This trough will be slow to move east through Monday night. Expect humid conditions today and Monday ahead of the next cold front. This next cold front in the northern Plains will move southeast and by Monday evening will be located in northern Missouri and eastern Kansas.
A high pressure ridge will then build into the region throughout the work week, bringing drying and warming conditions.
418 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Today and tonight: Weak mid-level ridging will continue to build into the ArkLaMiss region today, keeping a warm, moist airmass over the area. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 70s with mostly clear skies going into Monday.
Forecast Discussion: Early this morning, a mid-level trough and an associated swath of rain with embedded storms was moving through eastern Kansas. Lingering showers and storms are expected to exit to the east of the CWA along the trough axis prior to midday today. Subsidence in the wake of the trough will allow sunny skies to return this afternoon, and another very warm day is expected as thicknesses increase over the area. Strong southerly low level flow will keep humidity high with forecast dew point in the low 70s for much of the area this afternoon. Ahead of that boundary, another hot and humid day is anticipated Monday with highs in the low and mid 90s.
618 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 (Sunday through Monday) An upper-level trough axis in the the Gulf of Mexico combined with an approaching trough swinging east across the Midwest will allow for sufficient instability for afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Similar conditions expected again on Monday as upper-trough across the mid-CONUS merges with elongated trough in the Gulf of Mexico contributing to fairly generous rain chances during the afternoon across the entire ArkLaTex with high temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
High pressure over the region today will result in mostly sunny skies, light winds, and above normal temperatures.