Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1001 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Early visible satellite photographs show skies are mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Despite the robust mid and upper level disturbance in the South Central Gulf of Mexico migrating eastward and across our region, extremely dry air in the low levels and a decoupled wind flow will likely hamper precipitating cloud line genesis.
clouds will return tonight and Tuesday along with an increasing chance of showers as low pressure off the Delmarva Peninsula moves north into the Gulf of Maine.
/issued 1103 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ High pressure remains located over the Mid-South this morning. /issued 403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area this morning and will slowly move to the east. As the upper ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.
High pressure at the surface will remain in place across the forecast area through at least Tuesday. as ridging aloft increases across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
The upper low will remain nearly stationary over this region while an upper-deck trof strengthens from MT to the SW CA coast.
Otherwise, weak short waves embedded in an upper trough combined with heating will promote scattered showers over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer today as we are starting the day with mostly clear skies across much of Southeast Oregon and Southwest Idaho. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain this afternoon with patchy mountain obscuration. A broad upper level trough will continue to impact the region through Tuesday night, bringing increasing shower activity each afternoon and decreasing activity each night as the atmosphere stabilizes.
And made significant changes to the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. The highest rainfall totals are again expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX. The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day with the dryline and approaching upper trough.
A cold front is advancing across central NE into northern KS, which will reach the central sections of our forecast area mid morning. However this may become complicated by the true southward extent of the aforementioned cold front position. Another area of interest will be behind the washed out cold front in the increasingly easterly upslope surface flow along the KS/CO line where the NAM is insistent on isolated supercell development with potential for giant hail, and much less of a tornado threat.
1052 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 The region will continue under the influence of a low pressure trof today. An upper level low with center nearly stationary over SW Saskatchewan today will continue to circulate moisture into the region.
1256 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build across the north today and tonight. Low pressure will lift north across the region Tuesday.
An upper level trough will continue to provide upper level support for isolated showers this morning. Maliawco Main driver of the sensible weather across northeast Montana today will be the stalled low pressure center now over southern Saskatchewan.
936 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2016 A low pressure trough will continue to deepen over the west coast today.
917 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build across the north today and tonight. Low pressure will lift north across the region Tuesday.
652 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Cold front advancing east through the Red River valley with clouds rapidly clearing. North Dakota will be under the influence of an upper level low parked across southern Alberta.
Afternoon temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s in the Valley with 40s-60s across higher elevations. Long-wave trough will remain in place over the West through the period maintaining cool and unsettled weather for the region.
/issued 414 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb ridging will be steadily strengthening over south Texas and northern Mexico through Mon and Tues. The higher terrain of northeast Mexico may provide enough orographic lift during the max heating on both Mon and Tues to fire some conv to our southwest. The NAM/GFS and ECWMF guidance all place pops through the short range period in the single digits and will stick with these values considering the strength of the 500 mb ridge axis. The 1000-500 mb thickness values will be gradually increasing at the 500 mb ridge axis strengthens.
Precipitation primarily along and ahead of the 850 trough swinging through. so will keep pcpn chances on the lower side over Eastern Wisconsin late tonight and then chance cat for Tuesday. Some timing issues with respect to this 850 trough and surface front show up with the latest nam run the slowest.
1026 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Water vapor shows upper low over far srn SASK wth relatively dry sw flow into the nrn plains. Current surface map places slow moving cold front across the eastern Dakotas into central Nebraska. Upper low located across southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will keep southwest flow aloft across the forecast area.
Cold front advancing east through the Red River valley with clouds rapidly clearing. North Dakota will be under the influence of an upper level low parked across southern Alberta.
The upper low that has been influencing the forecast area the past several days with cool and shower conditions will gradually shift away from the region over the next 48 hours. However, a few more days of showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected before the low departs. Of note is the idea that model trends for a more inland track of the low late this week into the weekend suggest warmer temperatures late this week and drier conditions over the weekend. The lower conditions will return to the same areas tonight. Weak low pressure over the coastal waters will persist into Tuesday. then weaken as offshore high pressure builds into the area.
1013 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located.
However, the same clear skies that allowed temps to get that cool are providing plentiful sunshine this morning to warm us up into the mid 70s already! This is several degrees warmer than this time yesterday. The Omega blocking pattern is still anchored in place and will provide more seasonable mid-May temperatures starting today.
The one exception is that the ridge of high pressure has shifted east southeast some. becoming more positively tilted as the longwave trof settled over the Desert Southwest United States.
629 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 A high pressure ridge in the mid levels today will continue to bring clear skies. With high pressure at the surface now centered over the eastern Ohio River Valley region, southeasterly to southerly winds will develop to around 6-12 mph by afternoon, along with occasional gusts 10-20 mph. With moisture still relatively dry today (dewpoints near 50), highs reaching the low to mid 80s will continue to feel relatively mild. The warmer mid 80s will be generally west of I-57 where stronger southerly flow advects warmer air from the south into the area. Upper level pattern has begun its transition to a flow more out of the southwest, as the ridge overhead breaks down through the day.
906 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2016 A weakening upper trough will result in a mix of scattered light showers and sun breaks today for western Washington.
The highest rainfall totals are again expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX. The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day with the dryline and approaching upper trough.
1255 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Showers are possible again today, mainly east of Pittsburgh, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located.
/issued 350 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ A large upper low has crossed this morning into Canada but a trough extends SW back to the Pacific coast.
630 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over the southern Canadian Rockies and the northern United States Rockies and upper level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes Region. 00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in breaking down upper level ridge over the Great Lakes Region and developing southwesterly flow aloft over the central United States.
High temps will range from the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast to the upper 80s/near 90 inland toward the I-75 corridor.
1103 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure remains located over the Mid-South this morning. /issued 403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area this morning and will slowly move to the east. As the upper ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.
This is due to a large scale low pressure system off the California Coast dominating the weather pattern in the near term.
With the strength of the low level winds. A mid to upper level ridge will steadily build into the region during the period. Moisture in the lower levels will be trapped beneath the strengthening inverion for predominantly mostly cloudy skies. Low level flow will also be increasing as gradient tightens in response to deepening low pressure over the southern high plains.
Meanwhile, a weak upper low will slide south along the Oregon coast and a stronger upper low will swing into California. This moisture will interact with upslope flow into the mountains and instability from daytime heating, resulting in isolated to scattered showers over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front will continue to push south through the area through the early morning hours with a few sprinkles possible south of Tampa Bay. High pressure will be building into the area today with drier air moving in as well. Aloft, an upper low will be moving offshore of the mid-Atlantic states today and lift northeast through Tuesday as upper ridging builds over the western Gulf of Mexico. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s north, to the mid 60s to lower 70s central and south.
952 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build into the area today and will then move off the Southeast coast by late Tuesday.
Our region is on the west side of a slowly weakening upper level low pressure system, which is centered along the central NC/VA border this hour. A narrow meridional ridge is just to our west, and that system will nose in here, keeping us dry and warmer to start the work week.
1045 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Dry southwest flow aloft will prevail today as a weak ridge will be over the area. Another low pressure system will continue depending along the west coast but will make little progress to the east. On Tuesday the trough will begin filling and moving inland into NV and ID but the flow over the forecast area will stay southwesterly and relatively dry.
/issued 403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area this morning and will slowly move to the east. As the upper ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.
1014 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 AVIATION section updated High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle of the week.
920 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. With a decent amount of sunshine today went on the warm side or warmer than guidance for temperatures.
High pressure will continue to provide us with dry weather through most of the day today. Ridging will return later in the week, bringing dry weather through the weekend. A weak warm front is bringing mainly high clouds to the area this morning. No rain is expected with this initial front, but the clouds are keeping temperatures a bit warmer this morning in the north. The inland valleys have freezing fog once again. There will likely be some clearing midday ahead of a weak and fairly dry cold front expected late this afternoon.
1011 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A low pressure area over the Gulf of Maine early today will move northeast into the Canadian maritimes later today. An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes late tonight and Thursday, bringing a chance for rain and snow showers to the north country late tonight and Thursday.
After a cool start, temperatures are currently climbing through the lower/mid 70s along the island chain and variable winds are taking on a southeasterly component. The high pressure at the surface will slowly but steadily translate and expand eastward into the western North Atlantic through Thursday. The local airmass will remain stable with any moisture to speak of confined to the lowest 3 to 4 thousand feet in the short term.
1034 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Weak high pressure exits today. Cold front late this evening and tonight. Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. SPS issued for freezing fog potential from valley temperature drops and fog formation. Getting into the warm air advection in the low levels as evidenced by the retreating stratus from southwest to northeast. No major timing changes with the relatively narrow band of showers expected with the cold front after 21Z, and tailored the timing with the HRRR and RAP at the onset, which coincided nicely with the previous forecast. A moist and colder airmass behind the cold front will bring scattered low elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers Thursday, changing to all snow showers Thursday night.
Per webcam and surface observation trends through 1230 UTC, added a mention of patchy freezing drizzle to the James River Valley this morning. Currently, positively tilted long wave upper level trough remains extended from southern California north-northeast into central Canada. The two main embedded features impacting our region are a closed low over the Central Plains and an embedded S/WV trough over northeastern Montana. A few radar returns over my southeast associated with the closed low to our south, though zero impacts for our area.
958 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 After a cool morning with some locations dipping into the upper 30s, we will warm into the mid 70s as southerly winds increase ahead of a cold front. An upper level low lies over the central Rockies with an associated jet stretching from the southern Rockies into the central Plains. To its east, we see mostly zonal flow aloft of the local area with weak upper level ridging over the southeastern US. This pattern will shift eastward today, with the low over the Rockies lifting into the central Plains by this evening, developing our next cold front at the lower levels. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s.
Have lowered max temps just a tad since we started out a bit cooler than expected, but most locations should have no trouble reaching the mid to high 70s this afternoon. These conditions will continue through the day on Thursday before winds shift to the northwest and gradually subside Thursday night in the wake of a cold front.
/Issued 324 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Cold front has pushed east of the forecast area with noticeably cooler temps expected today along with gusty northwesterly winds. Overall weather pattern will feature strong ridging through the western U.
546 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front is currently pushing east across the area and will slide east of the area this morning. A cold front moved through the area overnight.
715 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A low pressure area over the Gulf of Maine early today will move northeast into the Canadian maritimes later today. An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes late tonight and Thursday, bringing a chance for rain and snow showers to the north country late tonight and Thursday.
547 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Low pressure will track across the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday.
/issued 354 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ SHORT TERM:(Today through Thursday): A dry cold front is just north of the region and is moving steadily south toward the CWFA, and will be knocking on the door of the northern counties by dawn. Tonight will be clear with light north winds and low temperatures in the 40s and 50s as high pressure settles over the region. Conditions will be sunny, dry and slightly cooler on Thursday with high temps mainly in the 70s.
Will get into more of a true warm sector regime early today as a cold front approaches from the west. A secondary cold front will be poised to slide southeast through the region tonight.
A Thursday cold front will bring colder temperatures and snow showers through the weekend. Showers ahead of and with the cold front will become more numerous across Ohio late this afternoon, and spread east across the area overnight. Cold front will be pushing east of the area Thursday morning, ushering in cooler temperatures heading into the weekend. Rates and accumulations should pick up in the late evening as colder air continues it's advance and an upper trough swings through.
The current area of very light freezing drizzle across southeast North Dakota and into west central Minnesota still looks reasonable based on the latest LAPS and model soundings. This should continue to decrease throughout the morning as the low level saturated layer deepens. Added some freezing drizzle for the morning over the south and east parts of the area. Water vapor loop indicated a broad upper trough from central Canada to the Desert Southwest. Within the broad trough, short waves were noted over northwest Ontario, northeast NE, southern CA, southern AZ, southern UT, and northeast MT. Thermal trough was on the north and west side of the broad trough and will move across the area Thu. Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will move through Fri.
645 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 High pressure over the area this morning will shift south and east of the area this afternoon. A cold front will push east across Central NC on Thursday, bringing seasonably colder temperatures to the region through the weekend. Strong 30 to 35 kt low-level westerly downslope flow in the wake of the cold front will lead to abrupt west-east post-frontal clearing and more notably breezy post frontal conditions with frequent gusts of 30 to 35 mph during peak afternoon mixing. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
A MVFR ceiling is expected to develop late this afternoon into the early evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. An upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic as a positively tilted upper trof over the Plains spreads into the eastern states.
The focus for today into Thursday will be the potential for light snow from the low pressure system moving south of the region, followed by the potential for lake effect snow as the system moves away from the region. Expect anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation along the South Shore of Lake Superior with the highest amounts in the Gogebic Range in northern Iron and Ashland counties through the weekend.
522 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Light echoes on RADAR just northwest of the forecast area are the result of some mid level clouds and perhaps virga associated with an upper level trough moving across the CONUS. a cold front continues to move through the region and is currently located along a line from Cameron to Athens. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front and much cooler air will filter in through the morning. Highs today will be in the 50s and 60s which is around 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday. The upper pattern really remains rather benign through the next 5-6 days featuring a large trough over the eastern U.
I adjusted up this morning's low temperatures where appropriate, and reduced fog to just patchy and the non-freezing variety on the west side.
620 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Weak high pressure exits today. Cold front late this evening and tonight. Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. SPS issued for freezing fog potential from valley temperature drops and fog formation. Getting into the warm air advection in the low levels as evidenced by the retreating stratus from southwest to northeast. No major timing changes with the relatively narrow band of showers expected with the cold front after 21Z, and tailored the timing with the HRRR and RAP at the onset, which coincided nicely with the previous forecast. A moist and colder airmass behind the cold front will bring scattered low elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers Thursday, changing to all snow showers Thursday night.
703 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Added some freezing drizzle for the morning over the south and east parts of the area. Water vapor loop indicated a broad upper trough from central Canada to the Desert Southwest. Within the broad trough, short waves were noted over northwest Ontario, northeast NE, southern CA, southern AZ, southern UT, and northeast MT. Thermal trough was on the north and west side of the broad trough and will move across the area Thu. Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will move through Fri.
445 AM MST Wed Jan 25 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE A weak back door cold front has moved just south of KTCC early this morning. Light snow showers will persist today and tonight across the higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico today. Still some snow showers out there, generally favoring the higher terrain. A weak back door cold front has oozed into NE NM and models indicating there could be some light snow along this boundary this afternoon as well.
535 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Satellite imagery showing the main upper level low pressure system bringing snow to the region continuing to slowly slide east early this morning, currently sitting over northeastern portions of NE. Snow (light-mod) continues to wrap around the backside of the low, mainly affecting portions of south central NE along and east of an Ord to Red Cloud line. The large upper trough over the central/eastern United states will shift farther east by the weekend.
446 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 The cold front is arriving this morning in NE TX and SW AR with NW surface winds from Tyler to De Queen now.
534 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front continues to advance through the region with widely scattered showers possible until it passes. Upper flow remains dominated by a largely progressive upper flow that will drive a cold front through the area this morning. Pattern aloft is dominated by a broad upper trough that covers a large part of the north central through southwest conus.
445 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Temperatures are ranging from the teens over the upper plain states to the lower 70s along the central Texas coast. Southerly winds has raised our dew points allowing the temperatures to hold in the lower 60s. This cold front is expected to bring a brief chance for some showers ahead of the front. High pressure anchored over the central Rockies will ridge down into the region.
644 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Per webcam and surface observation trends through 1230 UTC, added a mention of patchy freezing drizzle to the James River Valley this morning. Currently, positively tilted long wave upper level trough remains extended from southern California north-northeast into central Canada. The two main embedded features impacting our region are a closed low over the Central Plains and an embedded S/WV trough over northeastern Montana. A few radar returns over my southeast associated with the closed low to our south, though zero impacts for our area.