Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the day goes on, sunny skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s expected today as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure builds into the area today produce pleasant boating conditions over the eastern gulf waters for the next couple of days. Strong high pressure builds back in over the southeast U.
511 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the northern Rockies/high plains. Upper trof crossing the central Rockies is bringing a few showers to far southwest South Dakota.
High pressure rebuilds Friday with sunny and mild weather.
421 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 KEY MESSAGES - Cooler, closer to normal, temperatures return today and Friday with much above normal temperatures returning this weekend. An area of low clouds along a cold front will keep cloudy conditions across the region through the morning, but these should begin to break up toward the afternoon.
High pressure will quickly get replaced with a potent short wave and with an approaching cold front, a MCS will move across Arkansas and Mississippi late tonight bringing rain and the possibility of severe weather to the region. These areas will be closer to warmer temperatures and warmer dewpoints (63-64F).
430 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Aviation Section Updated Quieter weather conditions will reside over the region today, along with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures.
All of this will be set in motion as a H500 trough swings across the area. At the surface, a low pressure is anticipated to track over NWrn AR. Lows Friday night should range from the mid 30s N and W to the the lower 40s E and SE.
558 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 (Today and Tonight) Upper low, currently located near the Four Corners region, will begin to shift east into the southern Plains today with unseasonably warm and breezy conditions ahead of approaching system.
A cold front has moved through turning the winds to the north/northwest and allowing for cooler air to filter in. Despite the caa, temperatures today will top out in the low to mid 40s which is above normal for this time of year. The high pressure will continue to move in placing the axis over northern Minnesota by 06Z Friday and remain rather stationary through the weekend.
This is the result of dry air near the surface being reinforced by high pressure to our north and causing the bulk of precipitation to evaporate before reaching the ground. Any chances for precipitation will push off to our east by late this afternoon with the progressive upper pattern having the upper trof axis cross the region tonight some ridging becoming established on Friday. The low level wind field will start to enhance this morning and with steepening lapse rates in the boundary layer expect winds will amplify with gusts over 30mph generally south of Route 2 by later this morning. Warmer and continued dry conditions may result in enhanced fire danger Friday afternoon.
942 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A southern stream low pressure system will pass south of Pennsylvania today, tracking off of the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula late today.
Currently, long wave upper level trough developing east into the Great Plains region. A weak secondary cold front pushing south across the Northern Plains early this morning, with a steady west/northwest surface wind most locations across western and central North Dakota. The western extent still somewhat uncertain, with potential the low clouds could extend to Highway 52 and a bit beyond to the west. This will also impact daytime highs, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s underneath the stratus, and warmer in the mid 40s to low 50s where more sunshine will be. Temperatures warm by 5-10 degrees for Friday as milder air continues to push into the region, despite a S/WV ridge breaking down across the Northern Plains.
957 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level ridge will offer warm and dry weather today.
A deepening trough axis has rounded the Four Corners region early this morning and is forecast to close off as it ejects eastward into the southern Plains through early Friday. In fact, point forecast soundings indicate a lack of saturation in the low levels until later this evening. As the upper trough/low moves east along the KS/OK border overnight, broad scale forcing for ascent will increase across our southern counties in southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa as the column finally begins to saturate. Do think the grassy areas could see up toward an inch or possibly two, but most roadways should remain wet with maybe a bit of accumulating slush as ambient surface temperatures remain near to just above freezing. The higher accumulations will remain along the KS/NE and IA/MO borders.
Kept temps on the high side of guidance since highs yesterday were well above guidance due to the late afternoon sunshine as the sun angle is now getting higher. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 51 66 50 62 / 0 10 80 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 47 68 52 62 / 0 0 80 70 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 48 66 51 61 / 0 0 80 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 44 70 52 62 / 0 0 50 50 20.
The main concern has been localized heavy snow bands which have become established along a weak trough/convergence zone at 700 mb. Strong frontogenesis in this region, coupled with fairly strong slantwise instability and favorable saturation/omega through a 800 to 1200 m deep dendritic layer has supported occasional snowfall rates of 1- 2 inches per hour, finally overcoming warmer pavement temperatures and yielding snow covered roads in some locations. Roadways could be especially slick given the substantial melting overnight, prior to air temperatures falling below freezing. Overall, conditions will improve this afternoon with only a few lingering snow showers expected in the high country.
Will likely handle with a Special Weather Statement for now, but may upgrade to an advisory if the lower visibilities become too expansive.
645 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure will exit to the east today. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
643 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Low pressure moves offshore later today, allowing high pressure to move in briefly tonight and Friday.
Early morning satellite imagery is highlighting a ridge of high pressure building east across Idaho with clear skies across the region with the exception of some low clouds/fog noted across the ERN mountains. Numerical models continue to show this disturbance moving onshore and into the mean ridge position this afternoon as it weakens rapidly. We do see the potential for light snow along the Montana divide Friday afternoon and night as moisture associated with the next incoming storm system (more on that below) works over the top of the ridge and spills into the CNTRL and NE mountain regions. Daytime highs rise to climatological norms by Friday as the ridge shifts overhead.
Otherwise dry, with afternoon temps in the low 80s, and up to mid 80s across the south-central interior.
By tonight, there is a low chance for some fog west of the Cascades and freezing fog east of the Cascades. Friday will be the relatively calm before the storm with some weak ridging and slighly drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwest flow will pick up ahead of the next wave pushing temperatures a few degrees warmer than today.
1018 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A decaying cold front that never made its way down to our part of the Sunshine State has left the area with essentially an axis of dilatation. From the Lower Keys and westward we have light northeast winds and to the east we have southeast to south winds. Otherwise, the axis of dilatation will eventually wash out as ridging from the east builds back westward gradually through the day. Waters mainly west of the Seven Mile Bridge are currently from the northeast to east, while elsewhere winds are southeast to south. As ridging builds back in from the east, winds should uniformally shift out of the east by the afternoon or early evening.
741 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Rain chances will diminish today as low pressure pulls away from the area. Temperatures will run above normal into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
06z data has a weak cold front running from northeast Wisconsin into far northwest Missouri.
955 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Rain chances will diminish today as low pressure pulls away from the area. Temperatures will run above normal into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
642 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level ridge will offer warm and dry weather today.
Quieter weather conditions will reside over the region today, along with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures.
Northern stream upper trough extending from southern Manitoba to eastern Montana early this morning will slide east across the northern Plains through Friday, while a southern stream trough develops into strengthening cutoff low as it ejects into the central Plains. The cooler temperatures will keep fire danger in check the next couple of days, though with northerly winds gusting near 20-25mph today, still reaching the high fire danger category in snow-free areas.
809 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Warm weather will be interrupted by a passing weekend low pressure system. Shower activity should wane by this afternoon as the low shifts east and ridging briefly builds over the Ohio Valley. Said ridging will begin to shift east on Friday, turning winds more southerly and aiding strong warm/moist advection by Friday afternoon.
619 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A southern stream low pressure system will pass south of Pennsylvania today, tracking off of the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula late today.
404 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Quieter weather conditions will reside over the region today, along with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures.
411 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 This morning, the upper level trough is located along the south central boundary of CO/NM with mainly weak qg mid/upper level qg ascent over northern CO expected through the rest of this morning. Northerly winds downsloped off the Cheyenne Ridge overnight, which produced slightly warmer temperatures near or just above freezing. Northwest flow aloft will prevail Friday with a trough off to the east of Colorado and a ridge over the western states. This will usher in warmer air with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s over northeast Colorado.
Will see south winds develop across eastern ND tomorrow on the back side of the high and temps climb into the upper 30s to low 40s if and where sunshine breaks through cloud cover.
139 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof axis crossing the Northern Plains, with short wave ridge over the Northern Rockies. Transitory upper ridge will move across the region tomorrow and result in drier and warmer conditions, with some breezy westerly winds especially across northwest SD.
143 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure will exit to the east today. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
207 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure will cross over the Mid Atlantic tonight.
Current surface map places high pressure across the northern Rockies/high plains. Upper trof crossing the central Rockies is bringing a few showers to far southwest South Dakota.
351 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A deepening low pressure system pushing through the southern Plains tonight will lift into the Great Lakes region by tomorrow night. The attendant cold front will push across the Gulf Coast states with prefrontal convection approaching the area by late morning.
A cold front will push through the area late in the afternoon. Moving on, we will get a fair amount of upper troughing moving in behind the fropa.
1142 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A southern stream low pressure system will pass south of Pennsylvania today, tracking off of the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula late today.
320 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level low was centered over the TX panhandle. Bans of snow continued on the northwestern side of this low from portions of eastern CO into nwrn KS. Lowered the low temperatures tonight to the low to mid 20s across the west and mid to upper 20s east. On Friday, warmer temperatures return to western NE as the upper low moves over MO and IA. Friday night, transitory upper ridging builds across the Central Rockies.
1155 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Warm weather will be interrupted by a passing weekend low pressure system. As showers move to the east of us, ridging will briefly build over the Ohio Valley. Ridging will begin to shift east on Friday, turning winds more southerly and aiding strong warm/moist advection by Friday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The pre-frontal trough and LLJ have blown things around the mid to lower valley this morning into this afternoon. This will retreat with light westerly winds this evening while low level moisture pools ahead of tomorrowâs cold front. The wind shift with the front begins across the ranchlands after midnight and edges off the lower Texas coast near daybreak, with the blast of northerly winds arriving by mid-morning. Some guidance has leaned a little cooler through the afternoon Friday, remaining seasonal for mid March, in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Not too many changes this weekend as return flow develops and much warmer air advects northward across the Upper Midwest.
Snowpack is going to keep the northeastern portion of the state cooler as high temperatures will ranges form the upper 30s to 40s.
Kept temps on the high side of guidance since highs yesterday were well above guidance due to the late afternoon sunshine as the sun angle is now getting higher. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 66 50 62 39 / 10 80 60 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 68 52 62 40 / 0 80 70 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 66 51 61 39 / 0 80 70 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 70 52 62 39 / 0 50 50 20 10.
Strong downward forcing on the back side of the upper trough will aid in pushing stronger winds aloft down towards the surface and boost wind speeds, while downslope boosts temperatures a few degrees as well. Also extended the Wind Advisory into the evening hours a little longer, with a strong pressure gradient behind a cold front allowing wind speeds to exceed criteria. (Friday night through next Thursday) This weekend looks warmer as low level southerly flow returns.
145 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Low pressure has shifted east into the Southern Plains with predominately north to northwesterly flow settled overhead. Throughout the afternoon, the low to mid-level jet will weaken while traversing across the CWA.
Dry and warmer for the weekend. A frontal boundary stretched northward from the low through eastern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Not much instability initially this evening, but expect a slow increase as the night wears on as low level moisture increases ahead of the low. On Friday, areas along and ahead of the front will see steady temperatures in the 50s during the morning hours, with a slow fall in the afternoon with the southeast counties being the last to see the cooler air.
131 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level ridge will offer warm and dry weather today.
Tight pressure gradient ahead of the upcoming cold front has resulted in winds of 15 to 20 MPH with higher gusts across SE Texas since this morning.
High pressure will move to the east Tonight. An area of low pressure will track east along the Gulf coast Friday, and into region Friday afternoon. Lows Tonight in the lower 50s will be common, except mid 50s coast.
We will dry out over the weekend with cooler temperatures.
Looking at current satellite imagery a high pressure ridge axis is over Idaho with a weak Pacific disturbance over eastern Oregon and Washington. High pressure builds back in Friday.
335 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Another warm day over southeast Michigan ahead of a cold front, as 850 MB temps of 7-8 C allowing maxes to peak out in the upper 60s to lower 70s with the low level southwest flow. Latest water vapor imagery showing mid level wave/cold pool approaching Lake Superior and this shearing out wave/trough will advance the cold front to the south this evening and tonight, reaching at or below the southern Michigan border by morning.
203 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure will cross over the Mid Atlantic tonight.
Further east, cloud cover should mitigate the diurnal temperature drop some, bringing warmer lows closer to the freezing mark.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge quickly moves through the area today.
An upper ridge will move across the area today. Clouds in Oregon will spread into southwest Idaho during the afternoon as a weak upper trough approaches from the west.
131 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Rain chances will diminish today as low pressure pulls away from the area. Temperatures will run above normal into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
1256 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure tonight.
Skies will continue to mostly sunny through the afternoon as ridging dominates our weather.
(This evening through Friday) Gusty west winds will turn to the north/northwest this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area from north to south tonight. Temperatures will be cooler tonight behind the cold front with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler, mainly in the mid to upper 60s. (Friday night through next Thursday) This weekend looks warmer as low level southerly flow returns.
Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s which is something we usually do not see until mid-late April. This indicates that the ridge is nosing back in from the east, albeit a little sooner than expected. As previously mentioned, the ridge to our east is nosing back in across the area. This has led to winds becoming increasing southeast and will persist through the first half of the weekend as the ridge re-establishes itself. In the meantime, an upper level low and associated surface feature located over the TX Panhandle region will slide east and northeast through the end of the week.
These low clouds are associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis swinging across Manitoba and into northern Ontario, with enough moisture to generate these clouds but not enough to all for precip to fall. will persist for the remainder of the afternoon, with a temp gradient where cooler temps have dominated in the west.
Temperatures should rebound quickly with the increase in solar radiation and should still max out in the lower 70s in that area this afternoon. Max temps into the low to mid 70s expected this afternoon. Behind the departing upper low, an upper-level ridge axis builds in over the Ohio Valley. While at the surface, an area of high pressure lifts northeastward along US east coast during the day. Given this cloud cover, continue to maintain maximum temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 while north towards the Ohio River have highs in the low 70s where more daytime sun is likely. This will keep overnight lows in the low 50s west of I-65 with areas to the east where skies will remain clearer longer in the upper 40s to near 50.
A frontal boundary extended northeast of the low into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures remain very mild for this time of year with readings still in the mid 50s and dew points in the low to mid 40s across the forecast area. Some gusty southerly winds are expected to develop ahead of the low over the area today, with some gusts over 30 mph at times. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread east across the area on Friday as the low tracks east across the area. Highs on Friday will be closer to normal with readings in the low to mid 60s east of the low and from around 50 to the mid 50s west of the low.
The high pressure moves into the western Atlantic near Bermuda and continues to ridge west over Florida by late Friday.
139 PM PDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A weak ridge will lead to continued dry and warmer weather through Friday.
114 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A southern stream low pressure system will pass south of Pennsylvania today, tracking off of the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula late today.
253 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A weak upper level trough is sliding across the region this afternoon, with some sct cu developing over the western Dakotas. Based on the HREF, the low clouds should exit the CWA by the late morning hours, with a sunny sky in the afternoon. A weak trough crossing the region Friday night will produce warmer overnight lows with temperatures in the 20s and low 30s. Medium range models keep the trend of the upper level ridge building across the northern plains.
154 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A southern stream low pressure system will pass south of Pennsylvania today, tracking off of the Delmarva Peninsula this evening.
242 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 The upper low continues to slowly move east and southeast into the Texas Panhandle with the back end across northwest Colorado through central Wyoming. RAP QG fields showing increasing subsidence taking over this afternoon and tonight as high pressure ridging aloft builds over Colorado. Despite the heavier snow, most roadways are now mostly wet, except still some slushy and slick conditions possible over elevated/bridge surfaces. Warmer temperatures expected on Friday with 40s (snow covered areas from Denver southward over Palmer Divide) and 50s elsewhere over the plains. The weekend should be fairly quiet with an upper level ridge building across the region. Temperatures should make it into the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area with mild temperatures across the high country.
The highest chance for dense fog will likely be west of I-95, though confidence is fairly low, with model disagreement on timing and placement.
Short wave ridging will make for a dry day Friday, but winds may pick up a bit along the coast.
658 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level low was centered over the TX panhandle. Bans of snow continued on the northwestern side of this low from portions of eastern CO into nwrn KS. Lowered the low temperatures tonight to the low to mid 20s across the west and mid to upper 20s east. On Friday, warmer temperatures return to western NE as the upper low moves over MO and IA. Friday night, transitory upper ridging builds across the Central Rockies.
A weak upper level trough is sliding across the region this afternoon, with some sct cu developing over the western Dakotas. Based on the HREF, the low clouds should exit the CWA by the late morning hours, with a sunny sky in the afternoon. A weak trough crossing the region Friday night will produce warmer overnight lows with temperatures in the 20s and low 30s. Medium range models keep the trend of the upper level ridge building across the northern plains.
After low ceilings overnight, clouds clear with the trof passage late tonight through tomorrow morning.
Forecast soundings reveal ample cloud ice and the potential for surface temps to wet bulb near or at freezing.
618 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Warm weather will be interrupted by a passing weekend low pressure system. Quiet, warm weather will continue to persist Thursday night into early Friday morning as a ridge amplifies over the Great Lakes. A low pressure system will eject out of the Central Plains and cross the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley late Friday, pulling an associated cold front.
744 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Temperatures will run above normal into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
Fair weather will continue through Friday night with high pressure in control. A low pressure trough will bring a mix of much needed rain and snow to the region over the weekend.
601 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 (This evening through Friday) Gusty west winds will turn to the north/northwest this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area from north to south tonight. Temperatures will be cooler tonight behind the cold front with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler, mainly in the mid to upper 60s. (Friday night through next Thursday) This weekend looks warmer as low level southerly flow returns.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge quickly moves through the area today.
Otherwise, the trough will increase cloudiness over the forecast area Friday, aid in developing breezy and gusty west winds over the higher terrain and other locations, and warm temperatures over Thursday's highs due to mixing.