Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridge axis remains in place from the southwest states into the northern Plains. With less persistence lower cloud in place, expect slightly warmer temps in eastern areas.
Otherwise, expect a near repeat performance with scattered/numerous TSRA through tomorrow evening with the highest probabilities central and south.
Therefore, the lower end of pops. Otherwise, modified hourly temp fields were we have cooler observations due to outflow.
Furthermore, A developing upper trough axis will be in close proximity as it develops just to our west.
1057 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 A slow moving high pressure to the east will keep winds from the southeast today into Sunday. Otherwise Sunday morning temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning, most locations from 67 to 70. While east of the Missouri River capping should old, storms just west of the river may develop and would likely move a bit more easterly as the ridge aloft is breaking down a bit and westerly flow increases. Could we see a cold pool develop with more of an easterly movement versus northeast? That is possible as the weak cold pool aloft looks to move near the low level instability in the early evening.
High pressure will remain over the region through the remainder of the weekend resulting in continued very warm and dry conditions inland.
Broad upper ridging occupied the central U. , while at the surface 1016 mb high pressure was located over the lower Great Lakes. Any storms will be slow moving due to weak steering flow under the ridge. Highs to again top out in the lower 90s with peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s. Isolated storms should diminish by early evening, leaving mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 70s.
Temperatures across the region are generally about one to two degrees warmer than this time yesterday. This, combined with the weakening high pressure, will keep tonight from getting quite as cool as last night. Made some minor adjustments to the lows accordingly. Summer like pattern will roll on through much of the extended, as mid and upper level heights remain elevated due to the ridge of high pressure emanating from the Central U. While there are no synoptic features of interest for lift through at least mid to late week, weaknesses in the ridging will allow for a breaking of the cap in the afternoon and early evening. This wave could bring a cold front across the Ohio Valley and bringing a better anchor for convection to Kentucky.
The highest storm chances look to be mainly across the southwestern zones between Dodge City and Elkhart at this time.
220 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Slightly cooler weather is expected today with shower and thunderstorm chances primarily limited to central and southwest Montana in the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures across the region are generally about one to two degrees warmer than this time yesterday. This, combined with the weakening high pressure, will keep tonight from getting quite as cool as last night. Made some minor adjustments to the lows accordingly. The exception to this will be in our more favored higher terrain locations that tend to see enhanced low level convergence, such as over an area of McCreary county and up against the higher terrain of Black Mountain in Harlan county.
318 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Little change in the pattern across the area overnight, with upper level and satellite obs showing ridging continuing as the main feature. This SSW-NNE orientated ridge axis extends from high pressure centered near the AZ/NM/Mex border, set up between a trough making its way through the Pac NW and another just off the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure spread from the Plains through the Great Lakes is keeping the pattern weak.
Have added VCTS mention to most of the area terminals today, with more isolated development farther WSW away from this trough at TYR/LFK, where confidence remains too low to include VCTS mention attm. While most of the convection should diminish during the evening with the loss of heating, convection should persist near the center of circulation associated with this trough, with the convection persisting at/near the TXK/SHV terminals through the remainder of the TAF period. For this update, did beef up PoPs areawide due to this expectation with the highest rain chances generally along and north of the I-30 corridor where showers and storms are already ongoing.
257 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas. Surface trof sets up just east-southeast of the Black Hills this afternoon. Convergence along surface trof with diminishing cap will allow thunderstorms to eventually developing along the surface trof. Persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft and nearly stationary surface trof will bring several rounds of thunderstorms through the week.
Convection was evidently greatly assisted by a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) that is situated just west of the island chain this morning. A remnant cloud line in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys may allow for some additional redevelopment towards sunrise.
1042 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Pac NW upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region. Diurnal heating will lower CIN across the area this afternoon, esp over the NE WY and the higher Black Hills where convective initiation is expected. The next impulse emanating from the Pac NW upper trough will push toward the region with increasing support for TS activity, esp in the west where cells will fire in central WY and push east into the western FA late this afternoon and evening. However, strong capping will contain convection to over the Black Hills at first until diurnal heating weakens CIN enough to fire storms on an old trough/outflow boundary.
402 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A cold front will cross the region today and push off the coast tonight.
The region will remain just east of an upper level ridge which should keep weather quiet for much the Ozarks today.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight through Sunday morning as the 500mb ridge across west Texas and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across southwest Texas. VFR conditions expected to prevail as the Rio Grande Valley remains under the influence of mid-level high pressure centered over SW New Mexico. /issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A mid level ridge centered roughly over New Mexico/North central old Mexico will continue to dominate in the short term. High pressure over much of the Gulf will reign at the surface.
202 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A rather broad weakness in the larger scale upper ridge across the Deep South and Southeast U.
The day will quickly warm into the low 90s once again in many spots as 1000-850mb thickness suggest little to no change from yesterday.
1149 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will maintain mainly clear skies through the forecast period with just some diurnal cumulus on Sunday afternoon. Winds will be light and northeast into tonight and swing to the south to southwest as the center of high pressure settles a bit south before basically becoming light/variable again Sunday evening.
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Thunderstorms across central South Dakota are continuing to weaken as they work east int capped environment with weak shear in response to weak upper level ridging lingering around the region.
An upper level ridge axis will assert itself over our region Sunday along with drier westerly flow aloft. Max temperatures will warm a couple of more degrees over today with the upper level thermal ridge overhead.
A shrtwv trof in nly flow Mon AM will track s thru the S Plains pushing an outflow boundary into the PB/SE NM. There are some indications of a shrtwv trof in mid-level heights, but still indication of the aforementioned dry air s of the outflow.
The general weather pattern continues with an upper level high to the west and a trough to the east. The high will retrograde this week and allow for new development of an upper low/trough over the Gulf coast and the Mid-South area in the middle of the week, this will allow for more areas to get precipitation in the middle of the week, instead of the scattered showers today and during the first couple days of the week. By the end of the week the upper low/trough moves east and the high is still to west and we are back in a similar pattern we have today.
245 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and mid- Mississippi Valley.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 71 89 71 85 / 40 20 40 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 71 91 70 88 / 40 20 40 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 91 70 89 / 40 20 40 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 68 89 67 88 / 30 20 30 20 40.
A series of weak weather systems will bring cooler temperatures and periodic chances for showers the rest of the week.
High pressure is centered over the central and southern Great Lakes early this morning. A weak back-door cold front is somewhat north of eastern upper MI, being pushed along by a stronger area of high pressure moving from Hudson Bay toward James Bay. This will knock down our mid-level temps just a bit; lake breezes and the back door cold front will get a chance to pop some convection later today. Further south, sunshine will be abundant (yet again), with temps rocketing up to around 90f into the lower 90s. Still no change in the overall big weather picture with upper level ridging remaining entrenched across the region.
For the rest of today, upper ridging weakens but no other pattern changes are expected.
A warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over Utah this evening, with a mean trough over the PacNW and western Canada. The weather has been fairly quiet over Utah today, with just some cumulus buildups over the higher terrain and very isolated thunderstorms.
1143 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Synoptic Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated beneath an upper level ridge -- largely separated from the mid-latitude westerlies (SW flow aloft over the Intermountain West/Northern Rockies). The main ridge will be in the Four Corners region at the start of the period, as a disturbance slides across Canada and flattens the northern stream.
A weak mid level short wave will push east from Illinois into Indiana through this afternoon but weaken as the upper level ridge begins to build back a bit more to the northeast across the region. Temperatures will once again climb into the lower 90s through the day with a few mid 90s also possible.
Elsewhere, dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Moisture returning as trof/low aloft continues to linger over the lower Mississippi valley.
High pressure will continue to provide warm and sunny conditions for much of southern Wisconsin today. Highs will approach 90 and dewpoints will mix into the low 60s in the afternoon.
1221 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A cold front will stall across the region overnight through early Sunday then move south later Sunday.
Large scale troughing to the north will likely result in a deepening marine layer, potentially to 2000- 3000 ft, as supported by the bulk of the guidance as well as recent profiler data. The pressure gradient will hold steady from a northern trough and ridge south, thus have extended the Southern Water Small Craft Advisories.
Meanwhile an upper level ridge prevailed over the central CONUS. Overall models advertise general troughing over the Pacific NW/northern Rockies while downstream ridge will see fluctuations of amplification over the next several days. Today through Monday Models are in general agreement convection will ramp up late Monday morning over SD along a cold front slowly moving southeast.
At the same time, several impulses will move up around the periphery of upper level low pressure near the Central Gulf Coast Region, and this will help provide support for additional development over the remainder of Arkansas through tonight.
An increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low 90s, but high humidity will once again bring heat indices near 100 degrees.
604 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Little change in the pattern across the area overnight, with upper level and satellite obs showing ridging continuing as the main feature. This SSW-NNE orientated ridge axis extends from high pressure centered near the AZ/NM/Mex border, set up between a trough making its way through the Pac NW and another just off the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure spread from the Plains through the Great Lakes is keeping the pattern weak.
405 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure lingering over the wrn Gulf while a quasi-stationary boundary is still meandering to our north. Water vapor imagery shows the area under the influence of a broad trof sitting over the sern CONUS. Elevated rain chances then remain in the forecast through tomorrow as the area remains under the influence of the troffing aloft, and to a lesser extent, possibly the meandering sfc boundary to our north.
A weak mid level short wave will push east from Illinois into Indiana through this afternoon but weaken as the upper level ridge begins to build back a bit more to the northeast across the region. Temperatures will once again climb into the lower 90s through the day with a few mid 90s also possible. Broad upper level ridging will remain across the region on Monday with highs again in the low to possibly mid 90s.
was aiding in the development of a few showers within the higher terrain of far Southeast Oklahoma and a line of thunderstorms pushing southeast into Louisiana. daily diurnal thunderstorm chances will remain possible with the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas having the greater potential for development.
The day will quickly warm into the low 90s once again in many spots as 1000-850mb thickness suggest little to no change from yesterday. Most lows will be in the low 70s. The most notable change actually shows up in the hemispheric models just beyond the end of this forecast time frame, when a long wave upper trof is forecast to develop over the eastern U. as the currently nondescript upper ridge over the southern U. amplifies over the high plains and rockies. Highs will be mainly 90 to 95, with most lows in the lower 70s.
450 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas. Surface trof sets up just east-southeast of the Black Hills this afternoon. Convergence along surface trof with diminishing cap will allow thunderstorms to eventually developing along the surface trof. Persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft and nearly stationary surface trof will bring several rounds of thunderstorms through the week.
Highs today will be slightly cooler with upper 70s to lower 80s, with Monday highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Slightly cooler weather is expected today with shower and thunderstorm chances primarily limited to central and southwest Montana in the afternoon and evening.
Deep mixing and decent sunshine should translate highs in the lower 90s F, similar to yesterday. A pre- frontal trough stretches into the panhandle with the trailing cool front back in Wyo. Thinking the biggest threat with any storm would be gusty winds due to high DCAPE and dry air in the low levels. Nudged toward the warmer guidance for max temps to keep forecast in the lower to mid 90s.
/issued 202 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ A rather broad weakness in the larger scale upper ridge across the Deep South and Southeast U. should remain nearly anchored in place today through the beginning of the week, with a hint of a weak upper low trying to develop by Monday across the central Gulf Coast region. Some slight development of this system is possible before the trough moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday with a small 10 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours.
402 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 High pressure previously centered over the southern Plains has spread eastward over the past 24 hours, effectively cutting off the influx of subtropical moisture from the south. Little changes on Monday as high pressure remains the dominant feature over the area, though a mid-level low pressure trough will be rolling ashore over the West Coast during the afternoon. Models were in good agreement moving the mid-level trough eastward over the western U.
Expect VFR conditions across the Rio Grande Valley today through tonight as the 500mb ridge across west Texas and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep South Texas. /issued 341 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge centered across west Texas and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across deep South Texas today through tonight before the upper level subtropical ridge shifts slightly westward Monday. This will continue to provide hot temperatures across the CWA today but slightly cooler 850mb temps Monday indicates that while highs Mon afternoon will continue to be hot. they will be at least a degree or two cooler tomorrow compared to today.
Easterly surface winds will remain light around 5 knots and continue do little in dispersing the lower portion of the atmosphere of the haze stuck in place. This will allow the smoke to mix out of the lower levels, finally giving our area some much needed relief. The weather pattern for the next few days will be dominated by the persistent upper level ridge in place over the central CONUS. Rain chances for the first half of the week will be off and on, as the ridge in place keeps much of the region in a mostly quiet weather pattern. Light haze will continue through the mid morning hours, when the low level inversion eventually breaks.
A lower to middle tropospheric low pressure system will remain over the northern Gulf Coast through tonight. The greatest forcing for ascent and low-level convergence is expected across the Big Bend and south-central Georgia, though as flow backs east around the low, storms are expected to rotate into SW GA, SE AL, and interact with the weak Panhandle seabreeze as well. Highs remain in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower 70s.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to stream in from the gulf coast waters through the day with the highest coverage along the nature coast and over the interior later this afternoon. With more cloud coverage, the daytime high today will be a couple of degrees cooler than previous days topping out in the upper 80's to low 90's across the region. Interaction between high pressure over the Florida Keys and a stationary frontal boundary over northern Florida will continue to produce west-southwest winds around 10-15 knots and seas 2 feet or less over the gulf coast waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible each day moving from west to east, with the highest chances north of Tarpon Springs.
Due to the low confidence at this moment, only went with a tempo for MVFR conditions due to lower ceilings. Today will be similar to yesterday with an upper level high pressure stationed over the southwest and an upper level low beginning to develop across the southeast. The upper level high pressure will maintain a dry and subsident air mass across South Texas. With little cloud cover around, high temperatures Sunday are expected to range within the lower 90s to the mid 100s, from east to west. Despite Mondays temperatures being slightly cooler, Monday will feel warmer than Sunday due to the humidity and hot temperatures.
The highest storm chances look to be mainly across the southwestern zones between Dodge City and Elkhart at this time. Highs are expected to be slightly warmer.
424 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Synoptic Setup: A large area of hot high pressure runs from the Desert Southwest through the Dakotas. A pacific cool core trough lies over British Columbia and Alberta.
A fairly broad mid-level trough will remain over the PAC NW through much of the coming week. Soundings indicate the airmass will remain warm and very dry in the low levels--particularly across the Snake Plain.
High pressure is centered over the central and southern Great Lakes early this morning. A weak back-door cold front is somewhat north of eastern upper MI, being pushed along by a stronger area of high pressure moving from Hudson Bay toward James Bay. This will knock down our mid-level temps just a bit; lake breezes and the back door cold front will get a chance to pop some convection later today. Further south, sunshine will be abundant (yet again), with temps rocketing up to around 90f into the lower 90s. Still no change in the overall big weather picture with upper level ridging remaining entrenched across the region. The ridge should remain strong enough Monday to preclude much if any shower or storm development.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and mid- Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures are going to increase a few more degrees today as a 5910 meter upper level high remains situated over SoCal.
Today will be similar to yesterday with an upper level high pressure stationed over the southwest and an upper level low beginning to develop across the southeast. The upper level high pressure will maintain a dry and subsident air mass across South Texas. With little cloud cover around, high temperatures Sunday are expected to range within the lower 90s to the mid 100s, from east to west. Despite Mondays temperatures being slightly cooler, Monday will feel warmer than Sunday due to the humidity and hot temperatures.
/issued 405 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure lingering over the wrn Gulf while a quasi-stationary boundary is still meandering to our north. Water vapor imagery shows the area under the influence of a broad trof sitting over the sern CONUS. Elevated rain chances then remain in the forecast through tomorrow as the area remains under the influence of the troffing aloft, and to a lesser extent, possibly the meandering sfc boundary to our north.
An upper level short wave trough will slowly move southeast from Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle by late this afternoon.
Alabama will continue to be on the east side of an weak upper low situated over southwest Mississippi. Forecast soundings indicate lower SBCAPE values today due to slightly cooler surface temperatures and dewpoints. The upper low over Mississippi will shift eastward on Monday and pull deeper Gulf moisture northward. Combined with widespread lift with the upper low, numerous showers and thunderstorms expected on Monday, mainly south of I-20.
No change in the highs. Expect temperatures will once again climb into the lower 90s to mid 90s. Broad upper level ridging will remain across the region on Monday with highs again in the low to possibly mid 90s.
528 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 High pressure previously centered over the southern Plains has spread eastward over the past 24 hours, effectively cutting off the influx of subtropical moisture from the south. Little changes on Monday as high pressure remains the dominant feature over the area, though a mid-level low pressure trough will be rolling ashore over the West Coast during the afternoon. Models were in good agreement moving the mid-level trough eastward over the western U.
Weak upper trough over the area will promote scattered to numerous showers and t-storms. [Through 12Z Monday] A trough of low pressure over the area, combined with a moist airmass, will lead to increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA during the morning into the afternoon.
A weak disturbance may get started just south of the LA coast but any venture northward looks to be prohibited by mid level ridging. Old trough boundary will remain into mid week.
Light winds organize generally out of the southwest today with wind speeds below 10 kt, then become light and variable again tonight as broad high pressure retains residence over the region. Deeper boundary layer moisture becomes firmly rooted across the region in SW flow that develops from the Gulf region and ahead the upper Midwest cold front.