Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 19Z surface analysis shows high pressure dominating over the western CONUS and Northern Plains while a low pressure system resides over the Northeast. A cold front, associated with the low pressure system, is draped through the Ohio valley back into the Central Plains. An upper level trough is positioned over the Upper Great Lakes and will continue to progress, east leaving us in a more zonal flow aloft before another trough drops down from the Great Lakes region. The aforementioned cold front will move southward, weakening as it approaches the CWA. Monday will be dry and pleasant as high pressure continues to dominate to the northwest.
Other than the smoke/haze concerns, the short term forecast will be characterized by pleasant temperatures a few degrees below normal and dew points in the low 50s. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer as a ridge slides further east. Other than that, things remain quiet with high pressure in place.
The cooler air mass and light northerly winds tomorrow will make for highs in the 80s and an overall pleasant late summer day.
213 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A cold front and area of low pressure will cross the region today with occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms, where a few storms may contain locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. Scattered showers will linger tonight before high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes Monday, bringing a return to dry weather that will last much of the week. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure over western and north central NY this afternoon. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s today. Cool with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Ahead of the front (as of 19Z) the boundary remains between the highway 278 corridor in far southern Arkansas and the Louisiana/Missouri temperatures have managed to sneak into the upper 80's and lower 90's. Precipitation wise has been most active behind the front as isentropic ascent has prompted showers and some scattered thunderstorms and the trajectory of those showers and thunderstorms to the ENE given the position of the 500mb trough orientation from SW to NE. The frontal boundary will continue its slow progression southward into Louisiana by Monday ushering in cooler low temperatures, especially to begin Monday morning along and north of the I-40 corridor where low 70's and upper 60's will be common.
After today, the upper trough to our north will continue to slowly sag southward on Monday brining the better synoptic forcing even closer to our area. Scattered to likely storms will continue into the evening mainly along the highway 84 corridor.
326 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A cold front will exit to the southeast tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
157 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 High pressure building into the region today will provide pleasant weather through much of the week.
538 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A rather benign period is expected as surface ridging builds into the region tonight. Before it does, we still have a PV anomaly that is rotating through the western side of an upper-level trough anchored across the Great Lakes region. This PV anomaly combined with a weak secondary cold front pushing through the region has agitated some cumulus clouds just enough to spit out a few isolated sprinkles. The surface anticyclone pushes into eastern IA by Monday morning. Yet another PV anomaly will dive southeast through the mean trough anchored over the Great Lakes, helping to reinforce the upper-level trough and keeping the cool conditions in place.
Smoke and its impacts remain the highlight of the short term period.
701 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 High temperatures this afternoon were generally in the lower 80s fir high to middle cloud cover over much of the region. Cool high pressure was filtering into the Ozarks today and will continue to do so through tonight. With temperatures cooling into the lower to middle 60 overnight and moisture from rainfall over the past 24 hours, some haze of patchy light fog may develop. Monday will be a rather nice and sunny day across the region with light northeasterly winds and temperatures in the low to middle 80s. For Monday night and through the coming work week, the Ozarks can expect significantly cooler temperatures than last week.
636 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 We continue to see the elevated and near surface smoke/haze get pushed out of the area with high pressure building in. Otherwise, very pleasant/comfortable summer weather remains on tap compliments of Canadian high pressure.
430 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Rest of Today through Monday: Troughing aloft will continue to settle south and into the region through the forecast period. The good thing is this will all aid in providing some relief from the high heat and humidity we've observed over the past several days. While lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s, highs on Monday will fortunately struggle to climb out of the 80s.
948 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 We continue to see the elevated and near surface smoke/haze get pushed out of the area with high pressure building in. Otherwise, very pleasant/comfortable summer weather remains on tap compliments of Canadian high pressure.
1046 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A crossing front will usher in a period of drier and cooler weather for the coming week. A few showers linger through tonight, mainly along the I-68 corridor in WV, in association with a crossing cold front. Otherwise, sfc nly flow on the eastern flank of building high pressure should support below average temperature through early Monday.
generally around 90 for coastal/northern locations to the lower 90s for southern/interior locations.
The area remains sandwiched between an eastern Pacific trough and ridging centered over the 4-Corners area. Temperatures started a few degrees cooler this morning, but are currently about the same as this time yesterday.
/issued 255 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A trough over the eastern US will begin to dig into the Gulf Region through the short term bringing with it a weak cold front into northern Texas by Monday. This will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night, mainly across the northern Ranchlands as the cold front begins to sag into south-central Texas.
537 PM MDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure centered to the east of the area, with frontal boundary to the west and south of the region. Upper level analysis shows ridging over the Rockies into southwest Canada, with dry northwest flow aloft across the northern and central Plains. Temps are mostly in the 80s, with 70s over the higher Black Hills. A general ridging pattern will stay in place across the western US this week, with some buckling at times as weak disturbances try to move through it from the Pacific NW into the northern Plains. Storm chances look to be minimal much of the week, especially in the near term as the ridge holds strong.
855 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 (Issued 855 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021) A cool and quiet night is ahead, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s under mostly clear skies. North winds will continue to diminish as high pressure moves overhead. The high will be over head tonight bringing light winds.
934 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A cold front will pass through the area tonight. High pressure will return for Monday.
Mainly isolated convection continues east of Tucson and primarily over the higher terrain. Otherwise, most of the CWA was under partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations.
Latest surface analysis still shows light northerly flow over the area with a surface through along the Missouri/Arkansas border and high pressure centered over the upper Midwest. Britt A rather benign period is expected as surface ridging builds into the region tonight. Before it does, we still have a PV anomaly that is rotating through the western side of an upper-level trough anchored across the Great Lakes region. This PV anomaly combined with a weak secondary cold front pushing through the region has agitated some cumulus clouds just enough to spit out a few isolated sprinkles. The surface anticyclone pushes into eastern IA by Monday morning. Yet another PV anomaly will dive southeast through the mean trough anchored over the Great Lakes, helping to reinforce the upper-level trough and keeping the cool conditions in place.
635 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 High pressure building into the region today will provide pleasant weather through much of the week.
513 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A crossing front will usher in a period of drier and cooler weather for the coming week. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually wane this evening in association with a crossing cold front. In addition, BUFKIT guidance suggests warming above 500mb, supporting instability inhibition in advance of the approaching trough axis. In the wake of the cold front, sfc nly flow on the eastern flank of building high pressure should support below average temperature through early Monday.
634 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Made some minor adjustments to lows tonight (slightly cooler) and highs tomorrow (slightly warmer) based on recent verification trends. Upper level analysis places high amplitude ridge over the Rockies. On Monday, not much new to say as western ridge remains the dominate feature. Western ridge remains the dominate feature.
942 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A cold front will exit to the southeast tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
/28/ Rest of Today through Monday: Troughing aloft will continue to settle south and into the region through the forecast period. The good thing is this will all aid in providing some relief from the high heat and humidity we've observed over the past several days. While lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s, highs on Monday will fortunately struggle to climb out of the 80s.
This will allow for slightly cooler overnight temps reaching the low to mid 60s under mainly partly cloudy skies. They also hint at a weak inverted trough axis possibly extending north from this low as well. With increasing cloud cover associated with the inverted trough axis, temperatures will likely only be a few degrees warmer on Monday (with overall more morning sunshine expected).
Surface analysis late this evening places a cold front over Northern Georgia, Central Alabama/Mississippi, then back into East Texas. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the Mid-South with rain chances remaining minimal at best overnight over North Mississippi. /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021/ A significantly cooler day across the majority of Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than just 24 hours ago, thanks to a mid summer cold front. The Mid-South will see a generous break from the heat this week as an upper low drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The relatively rain-free conditions as of late can be attributed to weak momentum in the lower troposphere, dry air in the mid troposphere, and weak but persistent ridging through most of the troposphere at this latitude. Most island communities will see low temperatures in the lower 80s. Weak high pressure over the area will maintain light to gentle southeasterly flow over the Florida Keys coastal waters through Monday.
Otherwise, still expected a wetter and slightly cooler pattern to begin tomorrow, as a frontal boundary heads towards the coast through the mid-week.
624 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Smoke and its impacts remain the highlight of the short term period.
826 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A crossing front will usher in a period of drier and cooler weather for the coming week. A few showers linger through tonight, mainly along the I-68 corridor in WV, in association with a crossing cold front. Otherwise, sfc nly flow on the eastern flank of building high pressure should support below average temperature through early Monday.
748 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 A cold front will exit to the southeast tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
/issued 308 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021/ A significantly cooler day across the majority of Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than just 24 hours ago, thanks to a mid summer cold front. The Mid-South will see a generous break from the heat this week as an upper low drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
A re-enforcing cold front behind all of this has quickly made its way south today. This will likely keep lows a tad warmer than they could be with the much drier air that pushes south behind the front overnight. Lows in the lower to mid 60s look reasonable. They also hint at a weak inverted trough axis possibly extending north from this low as well. With increasing cloud cover associated with the inverted trough axis, temperatures will likely only be a few degrees warmer on Monday (with overall more morning sunshine expected).
A southwest flow between a trough off the Pac NW and a ridge in the SW will continue to bring a dry and stable airmass into central CA through Monday.
This will allow for slightly cooler overnight temps reaching the low to mid 60s under mainly partly cloudy skies. They also hint at a weak inverted trough axis possibly extending north from this low as well. With increasing cloud cover associated with the inverted trough axis, temperatures will likely only be a few degrees warmer on Monday (with overall more morning sunshine expected). A drier airmass and good radiational cooling conditions (clear skies/light winds) will help to provide much cooler overnight temperatures on Tuesday night, as lows drop into the 61 to 65 degree range in most areas. An upper-trough will remain the dominant weather feature across the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the work week.
At the surface, dry high pressure will prevail over the Great Plains today. Dewpoints are expected to run in the lower 50s through the morning. Certainly could be 10 degrees warmer if climo were to prevail. The lee trough will deepen slightly across eastern Colorado, so winds might be a few mph/knots stronger than compared to Monday.
254 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 A beautiful day lies ahead with cooler and less humid conditions under mostly sunny skies. Latest surface analysis places the cold front just north of the KY/TN border with a 1024mb high pressure centered over central IA. Regarding temperatures, advective component in the low levels will be rather weak today. Massie-Rose 1000-850 thickness technique suggests max temps reaching into the low 80s, but will go ahead an bump temperatures up a degree with little abated insolation. Still expect to see most places hit the low 80s, but urban areas (namely SDF and BWG) may reach mid 80s. General upper troughing will persist over the eastern United States through at least mid-week before a somewhat more zonal pattern, with embedded disturbances, sets up later in the week and into the weekend.
132 AM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 An upper level ridge will remain positioned just to the west of the region today. The upper level ridge axis will actually shift slightly to the east today resulting in minor height rises overhead. The high precipitable water values we have observed the past several days will take a major hit with this drier air moving in. Although we will be drier today, one benefit will be cooler than average temperatures. A fairly benign pattern is forecast to encompass the CWA this week, though there exists some potential for diurnally-driven convection to develop along the weakening quasi-stationary front across eastern New Mexico as the mid/upper-level anticyclone strengthens over the Desert Southwest/Great Basin regions.
257 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 High pressure provides cooler-than-normal temperatures through Tuesday.
An area of high pressure begins to build into the Mojave Desert to start the week and will be the main weather maker for the next several days.
Secondary cold front pushed through central IL earlier today, shifting winds to northerly and advecting lower dewpoint air into the area. With high pressure strengthening across the area this evening, clear skies and calm winds will create favorable radiational cooling that allows temperatures to drop into the mid 50s.
257 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 2021 The upper ridge over the western CONUS is expected to remain for much of this week, but begins to break down a bit by Tuesday as the upper trough deepens over the eastern CONUS.
The upper trough developing over the eastern US will dig southward today and tonight and the axis looks to be overhead Tuesday. This will help keep temps on the cooler side with highs in the 80s, but on the eastern side of the trough, chances for showers and thunderstorms will work back into the forecast starting Tuesday.
Drier and cooler air that pushed in behind the cold front that is now south and east of our area will provide a precip free day today with high temperatures generally around 3-6 degrees below normal. Some weak short wave energy aloft will be rounding the base of the trough tonight.
High pressure will build into the region Monday, bringing dry conditions to start the work week. High pressure will start building into the region today. High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s in most areas.
129 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 A crossing front will usher in a period of drier and cooler weather for the coming week. A few showers linger through tonight, mainly along the I-68 corridor in WV, in association with a crossing cold front. Otherwise, sfc nly flow on the eastern flank of building high pressure should support below average temperature through early Monday.
which is in vicinity of the cold front that moved through the state on Sun. Lows Tue night will be even cooler than Mon night.
For now with the low chance for actual measurable rainfall, will just go with a few sprinkles acrs much of the area with peak occurrence early to mid afternoon. Clear out and sfc ridging to take control of the region, while steep/amplified NNW steering flow continues aloft acrs the upper to mid MS RVR Valleys.
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 High temperatures this afternoon were generally in the lower 80s fir high to middle cloud cover over much of the region. Cool high pressure was filtering into the Ozarks today and will continue to do so through tonight. With temperatures cooling into the lower to middle 60 overnight and moisture from rainfall over the past 24 hours, some haze of patchy light fog may develop. Monday will be a rather nice and sunny day across the region with light northeasterly winds and temperatures in the low to middle 80s. For Monday night and through the coming work week, the Ozarks can expect significantly cooler temperatures than last week.
Other than the smoke/haze concerns, the short term forecast will be characterized by pleasant temperatures a few degrees below normal and dew points in the low 50s. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer as a ridge slides further east. Other than that, things remain quiet with high pressure in place. High pressure continues to dominate on Tuesday, so dry conditions will continue early this week. So nothing tropical, but still much warmer and more humid than our current air mass.
200 AM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 Mid to upper level ridge over the western CONUS is expected to remain in place through Tuesday, but with some height falls as energy digs into the eastern CONUS. The upper ridge will continue to promote a dry forecast through the early part of this work week. Max temperatures will remain above normal for the period under the influence of the upper ridge. The western CONUS ridge that's been in place for quite some time will mostly stay put through the end of the week.
An earlier frontal passage has brought a drier and more stable air mass to the area, and a second cold front is located across eastern KY/WV. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 67 86 67 85 / 10 10 30 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 66 86 66 85 / 10 10 40 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 84 64 85 64 84 / 10 10 30 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 81 61 81 / 10 10 60 30 60.
337 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 Quiet weather is expected through the week as high pressure lingers. Comfortable 50s dewpoints will persist today into tomorrow under weak low level ridging.
High pressure rebuilds over Southern California Tuesday with inland warming while the marine layer continues along the coast. Coastal troughing returns later in the week.
With surface ridging only slowly moving east through the central Plains, advections remain modest with only small rises in temps anticipated.
351 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 Dry weather is forecast for today as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
The cooler air mass and light northerly winds tomorrow will make for highs in the 80s and an overall pleasant late summer day. Tuesday will see the upper level high pressure center shift a bit and allow for northwesterly flow to bring some precip chances to the western Panhandles if storms can make it from the mountains.
Today through Tuesday The upper ridge will begin to breakdown over the region this morning, allowing for the monsoonal airmass, that has been primarily over ID, to start to shift eastward over the Cowboy State today.
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 A weakening cold front moves east of the region this morning. High pressure then builds into the area through midweek. Meanwhile, a nearly stationary frontal boundary south and east of the area will have waves of low pressure moving along the front. The boundary may move back towards the area at some point during the mid to late week period which would bring waves of low pressure closer to the area.
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 The cold front has moved south across most of the state.
Daytime highs will peak today in the low-to-mid 90s with heat index in the low 100s. By tomorrow, daytime highs will reach the low 90s with heat index values near 100.
High pressure then settles over New England through Tuesday.
258 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 Fair, pleasant, and seasonably cool (comfortable) conditions early this week will trend warmer with a gradual increase in precipitation potential through late week. Most areas appear to stay dry with temps trending slightly warmer through Wed. The late week period is expected to become more unsettled as the mean upper trough position extends from the central GLAKS to the Tennessee River Valley, leaving the eastern seaboard susceptible to deeper moisture from the southeast states and western Atlantic. Conditions will quickly improve Monday morning, as high pressure builds into the area.
Overall, comfortable weather should prevail again Tuesday with highs below average in the low-to-mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s.
352 AM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 Impacts remain smoke related as high pressure persists today into tomorrow across the northern plains. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday with low to mid 80s expected as long as the smoke is not too thick to significantly damped temps. Heading into the weekend, the prominent ridge to our west/southwest will weaken and flatten, allowing for more precip chances, and possibly a wind shift that would give us a reprieve from the smoke.
At the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis will continue to ridge across southern Florida today and tonight, with southwesterly to westerly flow persisting. Atmospheric moisture will increase from what was observed the last couple of days, resulting in scattered to numerous showers and storms, with the highest coverage over the interior.
Cooler temperatures in the airmass behind the front will keep things.
120 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 A cold front will exit to the southeast tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. The high will settle across the southern Great Lakes for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal, especially at night. Skies are becoming mostly clear this evening as high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. This, combined with mainly clear skies, will allow for lows to bottom out in the lower to mid 50s. High pressure will settle across the southern Great Lakes for Monday into Monday night.