Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Snow levels, now above 6000 feet will begin to decrease from Northwest to southeast as a cold front begins to make its way into the Northern Rockies. This evening may bring some winter impacts to west central and southwest Montana as wet roads from afternoon rains may quickly freeze during the cold frontal passage during the early to mid evening hours.
It's unfortunate that warming will be rather limited given the warm airmass/upper ridging pattern across the plains.
Low pressure continued to deepen in southeastern CO and northeastern NM. Indications are for that deck to make it to Topeka and continue slightly farther west before boundary layer mixing begins scattering the low clouds by midday. With sunshine this afternoon, temperatures are expected to reach the low 40s in far northern KS to the low 50s in central KS. Stronger southerly flow will allow for decent WAA tomorrow ahead of an approaching upper level long wave trough over the Intermountain West.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery this morning showing mid and high level cloud cover spilling overtop the mid level ridge axis aligned over the western Plains. While the majority of the low clouds have dissipated, another band extending from MO into northern MS, has been trying to drop southward through the night, but eroding on its leading edge. Also, temperatures underneath the cloud deck have remained in the low to mid 30s overnight while areas to the south in the clear air have radiated into the upper 20s. Despite the high level clouds streaming over, by afternoon the sun will still be seen over the area helping temperatures warm into the upper 40s and 50s. The thinness of the high level clouds should not hamper radiative cooling tonight as minimums fall into the 20s and lower 30s.
237 AM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 One more day of mild temperatures is expected today, with a cold front crossing the region tonight.
436 AM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 Upper ridge will be pushing east today, but unseasonably warm conditions will continue. A cold front will drop through eastern Montana ahead of a Pacific upper trof, with temperatures beginning its wintry descent to well below normal by the weekend. A band of light precipitation will follow the cold front from late tonight through Wednesday with mainly snow, but could see a little rain or freezing rain as the airmass cools through the day. Northwest flow remains over the region into the weekend, with upper low lingering over northern Ontario.
/issued 243 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021/ Temperatures will moderate further today as upper ridging shifts more squarely over the High Plains. Plenty of mid-upper level cloudiness caught up in the ridge early this morning will tend to thin and shift southward through the day. At the surface, a weak trough/low will sag southeastward across the South Plains today, veering the flow. The axis of the mid- and upper-level ridge will begin shifting east on Wednesday.
Current snowfall amounts show 6 or more inches is staying at fairly high elevation, as temperatures stay warm until the cold front passes tonight, and even then it doesn't get all that cold, at least tonight. This air is somewhat dry and so there is only light snow expected, and the air is cold (the low in Pocatello goes from around 30 deg F tonight, down 15 deg F Wed night). Today's storm will come with wind on the cold air side, so Wed, especially the afternoon, should be windy (20 to 30 mph with higher gusts) along ridges and in the eastern Magic Valley/Snake River plain.
336 AM PST Tue Feb 2 2021 Today will be dry and warmer inland and a little cooler at the coast. A low pressure system moving southeastward through the Great Basin could bring a few light showers or sprinkles Wednesday night, mainly over the mountains, with stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
The atmosphere is still to dry to produce any precip today and with mostly sunny skies temperatures back into the 70s with a bit cooler around south Padre Island.
With the southerly low-level flow in place, Wednesday morning will start off about 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to what is expected this morning. As the southerly flow picks up to moderate levels, the low- level moisture recovery should accelerate with rising dew points throughout the afternoon under a generally mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky.
420 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 (Today and tonight) Gusty south winds expected to develop by midday as a lee trough strengthens along the Texas/New Mexico state line. It will be mild overnight with lows mainly in the lower to mid 40s.
Southwesterly flow will remain across the region today, ahead of a cold front which will cross the area Wednesday.
Upper low has pushed east into the Delmarva, and the snow has retreated into eastern Kentucky as the last vort lobe dives down the backside of the low into the Carolinas. Even with partial sunshine, mid/upper 30s will do it as anything warmer will fill back in with strato-cu given the trapped moisture near 2500-3000 feet. High pressure will be settling over the Ohio Valley to start off the forecast period Wednesday.
450 AM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 One more day of mild temperatures is expected today, with a cold front crossing the region tonight.
Continued to mention that fog and more specifically freezing fog could deposit a layer of frost on road surfaces, including bridges, creating slippery driving conditions. Just how high temperatures can get west of the Missouri River will highly depend on when the low clouds push east. On Wednesday will will be monitoring the southeastward progression of the nearing cold front.
745 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 Snow chances will continue for part of the day with slow moving low pressure.
Dew points will be in the low to mid 20s across those areas, and moisture will decrease further west into the Panhandle. A steep temperature gradient will develop today, with highs in the 50s to low 60s in southwest Nebraska and the Panhandle and highs in the low 30s in north central Nebraska. Went with the higher side of temperature guidance due to continued clear skies and WAA, including H850 temperatures between 11 and 12 degrees Celsius.
/Issued 516 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021/ The 500-mb trough axis has shifted east of Georgia, placing the area under northwest flow aloft. Flurries and/or light snow showers cannot be ruled out across our far northeast counties this morning, as the last of the low-level moisture is lifted up the higher terrain of northeast Georgia. In addition, wind chills across the higher terrain of northeast Georgia will be in the single digits through mid- morning. Winds will remain breezy/gusty today as the trough exits to the east. After a chilly morning with lows in the 20s and 30s, highs today will only reach the lower 40s to lower 50s. An upper-level ridge will shift over the area on Wednesday with high pressure building in at the surface.
515 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 Snow chances will continue for part of the day with slow moving low pressure.
348 AM PST Tue Feb 2 2021 Cold front will swing through the region overnight tonight bringing a few light rain showers north of Fresno county.
/Issued 232 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021/ Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Today and Wednesday across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
Only cloudiness will be at the upper levels as some moisture moves over an upper level ridge across the region. /issued 319 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021/ Quiet weather continues with high pressure to our north. This high pressure will slide to the east, and winds will shift from the northeast today to east tonight and eventually out of the south later on Wednesday.
511 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 Snow chances will continue for part of the day with slow moving low pressure.
516 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 The 500-mb trough axis has shifted east of Georgia, placing the area under northwest flow aloft. Flurries and/or light snow showers cannot be ruled out across our far northeast counties this morning, as the last of the low-level moisture is lifted up the higher terrain of northeast Georgia. In addition, wind chills across the higher terrain of northeast Georgia will be in the single digits through mid-morning. Winds will remain breezy/gusty today as the trough exits to the east. After a chilly morning with lows in the 20s and 30s, highs today will only reach the lower 40s to lower 50s. An upper-level ridge will shift over the area on Wednesday with high pressure building in at the surface.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 25 47 29 53 / 10 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 24 40 24 49 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 37 24 42 25 48 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 20 39 19 48 / 40 0 0 0 0 TN.
542 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Expect seasonably cool conditions today with highs in the low to mid 30s under a mix of sun and clouds across the region.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft drifting east across the Western High Plains. With an upper level ridge over the Rockies and strong upper level low over the Northeastern United States will bring northwest flow above western Kansas. At the surface, a weak trough will move into far western Kansas as the day progresses shifting light southerly winds to the north. This trough will retreat tonight with southerly winds across the CWA.
Snow levels, now above 6000 feet, will begin to decrease from Northwest to southeast as a cold front begins to make its way into the Northern Rockies. As a result, this evening may bring some winter impacts to west central and southwest Montana as wet roads from afternoon rains may quickly freeze during the cold frontal passage during the early to mid evening hours.
Highs will get up into the 60s today and may even touch the lower 70s in some areas across the Panhandles. The upper level ridge will move east tonight and flow aloft will become more westerly as a new trough swings across the Mountain West. The southern base of the trough and associated jet streak is forecast to enter the Panhandles tomorrow night with winds of 80 to 90 knots at 500mb.
With an upper level ridge over the Rockies and strong upper level low over the Northeastern United States will bring northwest flow above western Kansas. At the surface, a weak trough will move into far western Kansas as the day progresses shifting light southerly winds to the north. This trough will retreat tonight with southerly winds across the CWA.
519 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Relatively mild weather for early February will continue the next couple of days as the upper ridge slides eastward from the Rockies across the Plains and Upper Midwest.
The airmass behind the front significantly heading into the next system tonight into Wednesday, and the low's trajectory, north to south along the Oregon coastline today, should bring snow down to at least 2000 feet by Wednesday morning. An upper ridge then nudges into the region, brining a dry pattern with morning west side valley fog with a weak thermal trough bringing north winds to the coast and coastal waters.
343 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 The middle portion of the country is situated beneath northwest upper level flow, with a deep low over the mid-Atlantic and a broad ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extends along the entirety of the Mississippi River Valley, with widespread stratus from the Missouri bootheel into the Upper Midwest. With at least some sunshine, I expect temperatures to be slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday. This will allow low pressure to gradually deepen over the High Plains, intensifying southerly flow across the mid- Mississippi Valley in the wake of the departing high.
(Today and tonight) Today will feature a continuation of fairly quiet weather as upper ridging builds into the area.
438 AM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 The mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Rockies today. Meanwhile, mid and upper level moisture ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast will continue to stream through the ridge throughout the day, though precipitation is unlikely. The trough along the West Coast deepens tonight with a closed low circulation developing along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models indicated moisture moving northeastward ahead of the trough encounters a weak overrunning environment over the region which, when combined with modest jet level divergence, is expected to bring scattered light showers to the mountains and central valleys overnight. Precipitation expands throughout the day on Wednesday as the low over the Pacific Northwest moves southeastward over the northern Great Basin late in the day.
515 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 (Today and tonight) Today will feature a continuation of fairly quiet weather as upper ridging builds into the area.
One more day of mild temperatures is expected today, with a cold front crossing the region tonight.
308 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Relatively mild weather for early February will continue the next couple of days as the upper ridge slides eastward from the Rockies across the Plains and Upper Midwest.
934 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 A cold high pressure system will move into the Ohio Valley today through Wednesday leading to cold conditions persisting.
324 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Expect seasonably cool conditions today with highs in the low to mid 30s under a mix of sun and clouds across the region.
534 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 The middle portion of the country is situated beneath northwest upper level flow, with a deep low over the mid-Atlantic and a broad ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extends along the entirety of the Mississippi River Valley, with widespread stratus from the Missouri bootheel into the Upper Midwest. With at least some sunshine, I expect temperatures to be slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday. This will allow low pressure to gradually deepen over the High Plains, intensifying southerly flow across the mid- Mississippi Valley in the wake of the departing high.
(Today and tonight) Gusty south winds expected to develop by midday as a lee trough strengthens along the Texas/New Mexico state line. It will be mild overnight with lows mainly in the lower to mid 40s.
Central Alabama will continue to be in between the strong low pressure that's brought heavy snowfall to New England and surface ridging to our west. Very dry air will remain in place with dewpoints in the 20s, but high temps should be able to reach into the low to mid 50s under sunny skies.
217 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Upper ridge centered over Mexico extends northward along the Rockies putting the region on its east side.
Ridging aloft will break down as it shifts farther east into the Central Plains tonight into Wednesday. Prevailing southerlies will advect warmer air into the Western High Plains Wednesday pushing afternoon highs well up into the 50s(F) and 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas. The lower/mid 70s(F) remain possible in extreme southwest Kansas.
(This evening through Wednesday) A warm, breezy afternoon is on tap for much of West Central Texas as a lee trough strengthens just west of the Panhandle. Winds should diminish overnight, but some high clouds should keep low temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow, skies should clear out again with more breezy conditions as lee troughing continues across the Central High Plains. High temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow afternoon as they will approach 80 degrees in some locations.
Once the high tide receeds, the flood threat should be over. Offshore high pressure will build Wednesday along with a thermal trough near the coast. The airmass behind the front significantly heading into the next system tonight into Wednesday, and the low's trajectory, north to south along the Oregon coastline today, should bring snow down to at least 2000 feet by Wednesday morning. An upper ridge then nudges into the region, brining a dry pattern with morning west side valley fog with a weak thermal trough bringing north winds to the coast and coastal waters.
This high pressure will be shifting off to the east through the day, with a prevailing SE flow expected to be in place areawide by this evening. Upper level ridging will help keep cloudiness away with VFR conditions expected. The atmosphere is still to dry to produce any precip today and with mostly sunny skies temperatures back into the 70s with a bit cooler around south Padre Island.
The Plateau still struggling to get above freezing, but looks to get to the upper 30s tomorrow as upper level ridging works its way across the region.
1125 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 The middle portion of the country is situated beneath northwest upper level flow, with a deep low over the mid-Atlantic and a broad ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extends along the entirety of the Mississippi River Valley, with widespread stratus from the Missouri bootheel into the Upper Midwest. With at least some sunshine, I expect temperatures to be slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday. This will allow low pressure to gradually deepen over the High Plains, intensifying southerly flow across the mid- Mississippi Valley in the wake of the departing high.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the forecast area Wednesday, allowing high temperatures to climb into the 30s and 40s as fog dissipates.
(This evening through Wednesday) Upper ridging will take temperatures well above normals today and tomorrow with some areas south of the Red River approaching 80 degrees. By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge diminishes with the coming pattern change to long-wave troughing. In advance of this, a lee pressure trough develops in Colorado and northeastern New Mexico resulting in increasing south winds over western and central Oklahoma by midday.
Overall temperatures should reach the low 40s across eastern KS and low to mid 50s in central KS. Late morning/early afternoon satellite trends suggested the low clouds would linger within the MO River Valley into the evening hours and likely build westward with time. By Wednesday, plentiful sunshine is expected across much of the area as midlevel ridging overspreads the Plains, at least of for the first half of the day. Lingering snow pack across north central KS could keep that area a degree or two cooler.
Surface winds southeast to south 10-20 kts becoming southwest to west 5-15 kts in eastern Oregon after 18z and central/southwest Idaho after 03/00z following a cold front.
After getting several reports of light snow and observing some low reflectivity plumes on the KEAX 88D and the TMCI terminal doppler, there seems to be some correlation to upstream power plants, given the low-level wind trajectories.
1122 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 (Today and tonight) Gusty south winds expected to develop by midday as a lee trough strengthens along the Texas/New Mexico state line. It will be mild overnight with lows mainly in the lower to mid 40s.
1235 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 A cold high pressure system will move into the Ohio Valley today through Wednesday leading to cold conditions persisting.
Upper-level and surface ridging will build into the western Great Lakes during the period. This ridging and the associated dry air mass will keep cloud cover to a minimum. In addition, a slight warming in the low-level layer beneath the developing subsidence inversion will help mitigate lake effect contributions to cloud cover.
Southerly winds will increase during the day as low pressure strengthens across the eastern Rockies. A strong low level jet develops Wednesday night near the area and will keep the lower trop mixed, therefore lows in the 40s are likely Wednesday night along with increasing southerly winds.
1047 AM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 The mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Rockies today. Meanwhile, mid and upper level moisture ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast will continue to stream through the ridge throughout the day, though precipitation is unlikely. The trough along the West Coast deepens tonight with a closed low circulation developing along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models indicated moisture moving northeastward ahead of the trough encounters a weak overrunning environment over the region which, when combined with modest jet level divergence, is expected to bring scattered light showers to the mountains and central valleys overnight. Precipitation expands throughout the day on Wednesday as the low over the Pacific Northwest moves southeastward over the northern Great Basin late in the day.
A deep upper trough pushes off the east coast through the near term as an upstream ridge builds over the central and eastern CONUS. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure builds into the area and the pressure gradient weakens, allowing local winds to relax and become more variable.
TFJ Upper ridge will be pushing east today, but unseasonably warm conditions will continue. A cold front will drop through eastern Montana ahead of a Pacific upper trof, with temperatures beginning its wintry descent to well below normal by the weekend. A band of light precipitation will follow the cold front from late tonight through Wednesday with mainly snow, but could see a little rain or freezing rain as the airmass cools through the day. Northwest flow remains over the region into the weekend, with upper low lingering over northern Ontario.
134 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 High pressure over the region and an approaching upper level short wave ridge will allow the Ozarks to see a quick warm up tonight into Wednesday. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees thanks to the clear skies, but as the high shifts east Wednesday and a low deepens across the plains Wednesday, the surface pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will increase through the day.
147 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 Snow showers east of I-79 tonight, on the outer edge of slow-moving low pressure, may provide some accumulation in the ridges.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Thin, high cirrus clouds will continue to decrease in coverage tonight and will primarily be limited to the southeast half of the area as a plume of Pacific moisture flows over the top of an upper ridge over the Eastern Rockies. This should allow overnight lows to fall below freezing for much of the area east of a line from Broken Bow OK to Natchitoches LA. Combined with subsidence aloft from the upper ridge moving overhead, temperatures should warm quickly despite the chilly morning. Daytime highs should be in the lower to middle 60s areawide. Much of the model guidance, including the NBM appears to be slightly too cool for Wednesday, so temperatures were trended a few degrees warmer overall.
Some mid to high level clouds continue to filter in from the northwest around upper level high centered over Mexico, but otherwise mostly sunny conditions are expected to prevail. Only cloudiness will be at the upper levels as some moisture moves over an upper level ridge across the region. /issued 319 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021/ Quiet weather continues with high pressure to our north. This high pressure will slide to the east, and winds will shift from the northeast today to east tonight and eventually out of the south later on Wednesday.
This will occur first for the Lower Keys late this afternoon, then later this evening over the Middle/Upper Keys. The Pulley Ridge buoy (88 NW Fort Jefferson) continues to seas of 12 feet at 10 seconds. Winds will start to decrease more significantly west of the Lower Keys this afternoon, with the decrease starting near the Middle/Upper Keys late this evening. The Keys coastal waters will remain under a tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered near the New England coast and a strong high pressure ridge driving down the Mississippi Valley and into the northwest Gulf. A high pressure cell will pinch off near the Louisiana coast early Wednesday.
/NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Short term will be dominated by upper level ridging, resulting in dry conditions with warming temperatures.