Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Elsewhere, some drier air was evident in the low-mid levels on the Miami/Tampa soundings. High moisture in the low levels was producing considerable MVFR-IFR conditions, especially TIX-MCO-ISM northward. A large mid-upper level cloud shield was delaying surface heating/mixing, so it will take awhile to erode the low clouds, possibly until around noon LEE- SFB-DAB.
The culprit is the weak upper low sitting just off the southwest Florida coast. Dry mid level air on the western side of this low has set up a rather strong subsidence inversion, which is why we seem to be having so much trouble breaking out of the low clouds. High pressure to remain well north of the waters with light east winds.
Southeasterly flow will prevail today before becoming northwesterly tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into the region. An upper level trough over Arizona moves into the Central Plains by Thursday morning forcing a prefrontal trough into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains overnight. A secondary trough moves across Texas on Thursday forcing a cold front across our area late morning into afternoon. There will be sufficient moisture for chances of showers across eastern parts of our area with some instability along the Highway 77 corridor for possibly isolated thunderstorms late morning into early afternoon. The secondary trough will bring some cloudiness to possibly hamper mixing of stronger winds aloft.
The upper low is currently centered between southern California and western Arizona early this morning and continues to eject toward the east. Behind this feature, an upper level ridge builds over the west for the end of the week and into the weekend bringing dry and mild conditions.
Drier weather returns for the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
310 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018 Upper analysis shows a trough in the northern stream coming into phase with another trough/low pressure center in the southern stream. The combined upper trough will cross the forecast area today and tonight. A cold front extends from the Manitoba low into Montana early this morning. The cold front will sweep southward into the forecast area a little later this morning and then will move from north to south today reaching south central South Dakota later this afternoon. Post frontal lift combined with synoptic scale enhancement from the upper trough will lead to light snow across the area today into tonight.
An upper level trough over southern Arizona early this morning will approach the Texas Panhandle by late today. As the above mentioned upper trough ejects eastward across the Plains, an attendant cold front will sweep across the area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
/Issued 408 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/ Impressive vapor imagery this morning of upper low which recently came ashore over southern California. The associated strong cold front will enter NE OK around sunrise Thursday and quickly sweep through western AR by mid to later afternoon. That being said, large scale lift will remain over the region as the cold front sweeps eastward and light precip is likely with all precip type transitions shown in forecast soundings as the cold air deepens.
A cold front continues to progress across the forecast area. A warm front and associated trough remain favorable to impact the area beginning Thursday morning. As the trough advances, some areas could potentially see moderate snowfall through the afternoon, with some of the best snow noted over the West Central and Boise Mountains in Idaho.
Southwest winds of 30 to 40 knots continue to be sampled by KAMA 88D through a deep layer of the lower atmosphere. Chances for showers increase this evening as mid-level trof axis enters western sections. Strong cold front moves into northwest sections early this evening, and then sweeps across remaining sections overnight. Strong north winds with cold front will occur, with an additional or separate wind advisory or high wind warning perhaps being needed.
While this will cut back on heating, given that temperatures are already in the 30s and lower 40s and that there will be warm air advection today, expect highs to reach the low to mid 50s in most locations this afternoon. There will also be an increasing chance of rain across central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois overnight as low level moisture convergence increases under large scale ascent ahead of an approaching upper trough.
MVFR cigs to prevail for most of the TAF period in conjunction with a strong cold front and upper system. Associated cold front currently through NW OK with impressive pressure rises noted across SW KS. The more progressive trend of the trough is maintained within the latest data, and while a secondary circulation center may develop near the Arklatex region, any enhance region of post frontal forcing is shown to be brief. As such, much of the precip type forecast falls in the rain to freezing rain to sleet transition with any snow potential remaining well into the cold air. Precip amounts also look to remain light given the brief shallow nature of the forcing and any frozen accumulation will be further limited by the timing of sub freezing sfc temps.
432 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018 12Z TAF CYCLE Strong north winds are moving down the eastern plains early this morning behind a back door cold front with gusts near 40kt from KCAO to KCVN through 15z. Friday will be warm area wide, but a few back door cold fronts will be on tap to keep temperatures cooler across the east thereafter. However, cold air advection continues behind the back door segment of the cold front.
512 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will move rapidly south across West Central Texas this morning. A strong cold front is on track to move across the area this morning.
Although the winds may not mix down to all valley floors, it is likely that the foothills and ridges will become quite gusty late this afternoon and evening with ridge wind gusts of 70 to 90 mph. High pressure builds across the West for the end of the week through the weekend with dry and mild conditions.
Also upper level temperatures appear slightly cooler which will have an impact on how long snow will linger in the valleys.
Starting to see a broken band of showers develop across western parts of the CWA ahead of the prefrontal trough. Look for the cold front to fill in a few hours behind the trough/precip.
703 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with an arctic airmass over central Canada which is dipping into the lower and high Plains of the CONUS and the northern Rockies of British Columbia. A large warm ridge has begun to develop off the west coast of the CONUS making its in-roads into the Desert Southwest.
In its wake, a very strong cold front has been plunging southward out of the Texas Panhandle and into the South Plains. It will be much cooler today with strong CAA resulting in highs only in the 40s for most spots. Lingering surface ridging will keep it cooler in the Rolling Plains where highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Rain chances will increase this afternoon and evening with a few thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal passage. Well changes are on the way as another strong cold front pushing through north Texas this morning is expected to move through southeast Texas around or just after sunset and through southern Louisiana during the evening/overnight hours. An upper level trof and low level directional convergence will also support precipitation. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be about 20 degrees lower than this morning w/ a wind chill down towards the freezing mark.
Further southeast the rain will transition to a brief period of freezing rain then sleet to snow. Expect MVFR along with periods of IFR VIS and CIGS through 18Z due to precip in the form of freezing rain and snow.
Well changes are on the way as another strong cold front pushing through north Texas this morning is expected to move through southeast Texas around or just after sunset and through southern Louisiana during the evening/overnight hours. An upper level trof and low level directional convergence will also support precipitation. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be about 20 degrees lower than this morning w/ a wind chill down towards the freezing mark.
214 AM PST Thu Jan 11 2018 High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern for the coming week. This will bring dry and warmer weather. We can thank a high pressure ridge building over the West Coast for a beautiful day. The ridge will bring fair and much warmer weather through the long holiday weekend, although there will be some high clouds, which will filter out the sun occasionally.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Moisture is beginning to pool slightly along or just ahead of our next cold frontal boundary due into the region in just a few hours.
The threat of thunderstorms is low as the instability is lacking, but have included a slight chance of thunder in forecast as some deeper convection could get going right along the cold front. Behind the front cold air advection will quickly kick in on Friday as daytime highs will be at least 20 degrees cooler.
Low stratus has developed out ahead of a cold frontal boundary moving toward deep south Texas this morning. /issued 412 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Moisture is beginning to pool slightly along or just ahead of our next cold frontal boundary due into the region in just a few hours.
High pressure off the coast of Baja will build northward into California during the next few days and bring dry weather and milder than normal afternoon temperatures. Temperatures are several degrees cooler than 24 hours ago in most locations. During this time, an upper level ridge of high pressure centered off the Baja coast will build northward and strengthen the inversion over central California which in turn will tighten the lid over the valley and trap much of this stratus underneath it.
Prior to the warm front, temperatures will dance with the freezing mark. Kept a small area of freezing rain, mainly in the Lower Treasure Valley west of Boise, but kept its coverage to a slight chance as confidence in its development is not high. Ahead of the warm front, snow levels will be around 3000-4000 ft with ample moisture. The heaviest snow is anticipated to fall through this evening as the trough moves through. Lingering moisture will keep snowfall present into Friday for the mountains even with the anticipated northwest flow behind the trough.
A cold front will barrel through the terminals this morning resulting in a wind shift to the north and northwest with speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty. N winds assocd with the cold front will be near I-20 by 15Z and with an isallobaric high of 7-9mb/3hr gusty winds are expected, 20-35 mph sustained (BLDU across the PB). Winds will be stronger across the Lower Trans Pecos/Marfa Plateau/Alpine with a tighter MSLP gradient and we will issue a wind advisory there too from 12Z- 18Z. Models insist there is a secondary shrtwv trof within mid level flow that will generate light precip from SE NM into PB between 12Z-18Z this morning. Even though sunshine is expected by mid PM we will side toward the cooler MOS. NW flow persist into Wed-Fri, but warmer.
542 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 For today arctic cold front will move quickly east through the area. However, there may be a brief period of freezing drizzle at the onset of this precipitation. The second area of 800 to 500 mb frontogenesis (associated with the mid level trough moving out of the Dakotas) will bring another round of accumulating snow to southeast Minnesota and along and north of Interstate 90. On Friday night, another arctic cold front will move quickly southeast through the area.
A prefrontal trough will move into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains late this morning with a strong cold front moving across South Central Texas midday into mid afternoon. Some showers are possible along the Highway 77 corridor. However, the main impact of the front/trough will be strong winds across much of South Central Texas. As the prefrontal trough moves into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains late this morning, northwesterly winds rapidly increase there, then as the cold front moves across, winds shift to northwesterly and rapidly increase elsewhere. An upper level trough follows behind the cold front and cannot rule very isolated elevated showers over the Edwards Plateau around midday with its passage.
KBYX Doppler radar did show isolated moderate showers recently to the west/northwest of the Lower Keys, but they have waned and will likely rain out completely in the offshore Gulf waters shortly. The center of the mid to upper level cyclonic gyre has transitioned to the east of the Keys, with a narrow and shallow amplitude ridge sliding into the eastern Gulf.
Latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted trough over our northern areas with a mid-upper level low over the northern Bahamas. This system will lift to the north, with east central Florida remaining on the subsidence side of the mid-upper low. Some IFR stratus was still lingering in the north in association with weak inverted trough lifting northward. Winds are becoming southeast/south at 10-15 knots as weak inverted trough was lifting northward across the northern waters.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area this evening into the overnight hours as a cold front moves across the area. /15/ Today through Friday: Showers will be on the increase today out ahead of a deep upper trough over Texas. Big changes on the way for tonight as this trough moves east towards the ArkLaMiss. There could be a period of sleet and freezing rain in the delta early on friday in the delta as the cold air works its way down the mississippi river valley.
356 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018 Latest upper analysis shows a trough over central North America with the trough axis currently moving eastward and away from the forecast area. At the surface, cold high pressure is moving into the region from the northwest. The winds will diminish some this afternoon but cold temperatures will remain, with the afternoon highs ranging from the lower 20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills, the the single digits above zero over northwestern South Dakota.
442 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Today through Friday: Showers will be on the increase today out ahead of a deep upper trough over Texas. Big changes on the way for tonight as this trough moves east towards the ArkLaMiss. There could be a period of sleet and freezing rain in the delta early on friday in the delta as the cold air works its way down the mississippi river valley.
745 AM PST Thu Jan 11 2018 High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern for the coming week. This will bring dry and warmer weather. We can thank a high pressure ridge building over the West Coast for a beautiful day. The ridge will bring fair and much warmer weather through the long holiday weekend, although there will be some high clouds, which will filter out the sun occasionally.
Some light, orographic snow continues falling over the continental divide, being driven by ridgetop winds around 50 knots. Through today, the available moisture will be fairly limited which will keep the snow shower activity over the ridges and passes. In addition gusty winds will produce blowing snow over the higher passes. As for highs, downslope flow along the front range will allow for highs close to 50 over the urban corridor, while acroos the far nern plains readings will only be in the 30s behind a cold front.
Skies will become partly sunny on Friday and it will be warmer with highs in the 70s.
1038 AM PDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Cooler and showery weather is expected for the rest of the work week.
239 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 An elongated upper ridge will be centered over the lower Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft across our region to close out the week.
301 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 A little breezy with maybe a sprinkle or two north late this afternoon into the early evening behind the cold front that has now cleared the James River Valley. We leaned toward the cooler side of guidance tonight, especially west as winds will diminish and clouds thin out. An upper level trough taking shape over the northwest U.
1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 This mornings water vapor imagery showed a deep longwave trof over the Pac NW with strong moisture flow on the front side into the northern Plains. a low pressure trof down along the northern/central high Plains.
Cooler over the plains with some breezy afternoon winds out west.
215 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 CLear skies and pleasant temperatures are expected this evening and overnight as southerly winds continue to bring warmer more moist air into the area.
309 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 A weak cold front has made its way through much of the area, bringing a slightly drier airmass to the northern half of Georgia but not much in the way of cooler temperatures. Despite the increased cloud cover and northeasterly flow on Friday, temperatures will not be significantly affected for most areas, though highs will be a few degrees cooler in northeast Georgia.
138 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Lingering showers and areas of drizzle behind a cold front. High pressure builds in for Friday and lasts into the weekend.
1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 18Z TAFS High pressure centered over the region today will keep conditions tranquil through the forecast period. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain a dry weather pattern through the remainder of the week.
1120 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Imagery shows a broad trof/ridge pattern (west to east) across the CONUS with WY/MT lying under/near the inflection point and WY under swrly flow aloft. Jet (90 to 110 kts) in place in the trof from nrn California to wrn WT and on up into Canada with a secondary but strengthening jet to the south ovr cntrl California/cntrl NV. The SFC has a long cold front that will push through WY today bringing light precip mainly over the nwrn Mountains.
316 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Dry with cooler temperatures for next few days. An upper level trough will dig southward into the Great Basin starting late Friday night.
200 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 A weak trough over eastern Montana/Wyoming will continue to move off to the east today. A cold front associated with this system will push through the area tonight. Expect overnight temperatures to be cooler tonight due the cold front passage. A strong southwesterly flow aloft will be over the region on Friday night, ahead of an upper level trough over central Idaho at that time.
Low pressure to the south will drift westward across the FL Straits/nrn Cuba. Overnight mins mainly in the lower 70s inland. The low pressure to the south will elongate out as it reaches into the eastern Gulf with gradient weakening a bit between this feature and high pressure to the north.
146 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 An approaching weak cold front will move through the forecast area today, stall and dissipate because of upper ridging. The ridge will dominate over the weekend.
a surge of low to mid level moisture will move across the coastal sections of the CWA Fri morning providing low clouds and light rain showers across the lower TX coast. Brownsville radar continues to indicate some convection across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and the lower Texas Gulf waters. The combination of a stationary frontal boundary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and a coastal trough across the western Gulf of Mexico will provide scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the lower Texas coast today. The coastal trough weakens by this evening as the surface flow becomes easterly late this afternoon. Near normal temperatures expected today with warmer than normal temperatures tonight and Friday.
150 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will be over the area tonight. A Pacific low pressure trough will move east bringing increased snow shower activity over northwest mountain areas through Friday and Friday night.
1111 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the western CONUS with southwest upper flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, a strong cold front is located from western ND into eastern WY. Strong cold front will continue to move through the forecast area today, exiting south central SD around mid afternoon. Temperatures will range from the 50s across the northwestern third of the CWA to the lower 70s across south central SD.
205 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 A weak low pressure system and attendant cold front will push south of the area this afternoon as high pressure builds across New England.
Cooler weather heading towards the region. A few clouds were noted over the higher terrain, especially across the San Juans. Over the higher terrain, the valleys were in the 60s to around 70F. Breezy conditions were noted over the higher terrain, with breezy conditions also noted over parts of the San Luis Valley and the Spanish Peaks region. Much cooler weather will occur tomorrow across the plains as temps are expected to be a good 12 to 18F degrees cooler than today. Over the mtns, southwest gusty winds will continue although it will be 3 to 6F cooler than today.
Any breaks short- lived as moisture increases again ahead of cold front which results in shower chances increasing across srn WI during the afternoon. Main focus will continue to be centered on winds and wave development heading into the weekend as potent low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. That ridge will begin to push east tonight with a trough of low pressure approaching western Wisconsin by early Friday morning. Highs today will be kept in check due to the low clouds, so similar to yesterday.
248 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Surface analysis from this afternoon across the region shows the cold front that shifted through yesterday has nearly stalled across central GA through the Carolinas. High pressure was quick to re- establish. Temps across the area this afternoon are currently ranging in the low to mid 70s, with higher values in the eastern half of the CWA where clouds were quicker to burned off.
157 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region tonight and will shift east on Friday.
259 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Upper trough sits across the western CONUS this afternoon with upper ridging over the eastern half. The cold front which pushed through western SD this morning has just cleared south central SD. Quiet weather is expected Friday as the next trough digs deeper over the Pac NW into the Great Basin.
452 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region tonight and will shift east on Friday.
345 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 A large area of high pressure will persist over the North Country tonight through Friday night. The above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend as a southwest flow persists in advance of an approaching cold front.
604 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 An approaching weak cold front will move through the forecast area overnight, then stall and dissipate because of upper ridging. The ridge will dominate over the weekend.
141 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will provide the North Country with mainly clear skies and cool temperatures today. Areas of frost will be likely away from the warmer waters of Lake Champlain tonight.
An upper level trough will bring rainy conditions today through early evening before tapering off to showers overnight.
432 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Upper trough sits across the western CONUS this afternoon with upper ridging over the eastern half. The cold front which pushed through western SD this morning has just cleared south central SD. Quiet weather is expected Friday as the next trough digs deeper over the Pac NW into the Great Basin.
The warm-up will continue Friday as an upper level ridge centered to our southeast continues to dominate our weather.
327 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east of the region on Friday.