Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps across the region running quite a bit cooler than previously fcst diurnal trend. /issued 432 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ Upper trough to the north keeping drier air just north of the area with some clearing skies to the I-30 corridor or possibly a little further south today. Upper low east of Baja CA continues to pump mid lvl moisture into rest of area. This upper low will quickly eject across Mex and rain will begin to enter the East TX lakes area Sat aftn.
333 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Low pressure will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, as high pressure builds into the southeastern states.
152 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Surface cold front will move South of the region early this evening. Secondary trough will slide South across region Tonight. High pressure will build from the Northwest late Tonight into Saturday.
313 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 A fractured cloud deck is present over the region with this morning's flurry activity shut off by drying of the lower levels. In fact, if any precipitation does occur, a potential lack of saturation in the ice growth zone could just lead to some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle.
317 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Weak low pressure to our north and south will provide clouds, and maybe a few snow showers or flurries tonight into early Saturday.
153 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will move across the southeastern US through the weekend. A trailing cold front extends from the Albemarle Sound southwest toward upstate SC. The boundary will continue shifting south as high pressure (that's currently centered over the southern Plains) begins to build in from the west. The high clouds should also finally exit to our east later this evening and overnight as the upper short wave trough axis (currently located over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys) crosses our area and moves east. The combination of mainly clear skies after midnight, diminishing winds (given the high that's building in), and a cooler airmass behind the aforementioned front. Tranquil weather expected during this time with NW flow and mid/upr short wave ridging, and high pressure over the area. Lows Saturday night around freezing.
Highs to range from the mid 30s from Bloomington and Champaign ne, to the lower 40s from Springfield sw by 2-3 pm. Cloudy day is anticipated today for Central Illinois, as a north/south orientation of upper level flow just to the west puts the region in the axis of an upper trof. This same wave digs into the western coast of the CONUS, and kicks the upper low currently in the Gulf of California out and across the southern tier of the country.
Widespread IFR-LIFR fog and stratus will persist through the morning with improving conditions this afternoon ahead of tonight's cold front. Forecast remains on track to see the end of the inversion this evening as a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. Showers from this system will move into eastern Oregon late this afternoon with the fast moving trough slated to move through the forecast area by late Saturday morning. Showers are favorable across the majority of the area, especially over the higher terrain.
1201 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Biggest concern during the short term is timing in precip and amounts with a warm frontal band of snow that is expected to impact areas mostly north of I-94 this evening. Water vapor imagery this morning shows energy working into British Columbia that is finally starting to break down the western ridge that has been in place for the better of the past week. This ridge axis will slide southeast and flatten out through the short term, but theta-e advection on the nose of the ridge will provide us with the forcing for a light snow event this evening and more so overnight. For temperatures, stayed with a blended forecast, which nicely accounted for the slowing of this system and its associated warm front.
A cold front is moving into north central Idaho and north west Montana this afternoon.
1134 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper trough axis well south into southern plains this morning, and with Hudson Bay low moving east there is ridging across the western CONUS placing the northern plains in fast northwest flow. Dense Cirrus topping the ridge and moving southeast across the Dakotas, should skirt western and north central Nebraska today.
240 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern with sunny skies, light and variable winds. Overnight tonight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, warmer than the past few nights. SHORT TERM / THIS WEEKEND/: Upper level ridging over the Bahamas will begin to extend westward over the region this weekend. With this pattern in place we we will see a gradual rise in temperatures this weekend with highs in the low 80s.
BMickelson Previous discussion: An upper ridge over the area will flatten as it translates downstream of the forecast region and a new upper level trough makes way for the Pacific shoreline. Late this afternoon and especially tonight into Saturday as the trough quickly translates eastward, cloudiness will increase and rain and snow showers will move across the area. Colder and drier weather is expected in the wake of that system to finish out the weekend, though it will be short-lived as a new upper ridge builds across the western U.
334 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southeast U. The southwest breeze will bring warmer air into the region tonight and Saturday. It's likely that temperatures will fall quickly this evening but steady off around midnight and hold in the low to mid 30s through daybreak. Carney The high amplitude pattern we've been stuck over the past several days is beginning to break down.
241 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 An upper trough is over the Great Lakes region and extends southwest towards West Texas and Mexico. Expect temperatures today across the area to be slightly cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 50s. The extension of the upper trough over Mexico gets separated from the rest of the upper trough tonight and gets entrenched in the upper flow of another upper trough digging south over the west CONUS on Saturday. This upper trough will move over West Texas on Saturday and will increase upper lift over the area.
In the upper levels mostly zonal flow is aloft with a trough to the north and a ridge beginning to build in. With increased cloud cover to the south lows will remain in the lower 40s for the FL Big Bend, Panhandle Coast and the Valdosta area.
A high pressure will move east over the southeast United States tonight and tomorrow, increasing the pressure gradient over the Florida peninsula.
A low latitude upper level low will track east across TX Saturday into Saturday night. A cluster of thunderstorms may become embedded in the broader areas of rain over far east counties Saturday evening as models develop a coastal trough east of VCT.
356 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will gradually move east tonight. Southerly winds and warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday as the high shifts over the Southeast Atlantic Coast.
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Scattered to broken cloud cover was moving across the region this morning and will continue into this afternoon as an upper level trough moves across the Ozarks today. This will allow warm air advection (WAA) to begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area along with clearing skies.
1020 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper ridge will rebuild across the area today resulting in mostly sunny, dry and warmer conditions. High temperatures will climb into the lower 60s. Ridge will flatten on Saturday as strong trough digs into the Great Basin. Cold front will move through the area during the day with brisk northeast winds by the afternoon. Low levels will slowly saturate Saturday night with the low level upslope.
339 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 A dry cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure this weekend.
As the upper level flow backs in the wake of the passing upper trough this morning, low to mid level warm advection will develop with a focused area of sfc-850 mb frontogenesis over the nrn forecast area. A fairly strong mid level trough will drop southeast across mainly southeast Wisconsin from the northwest early this morning and off to Lower Michigan by noon.
A cold front will bring increasing north winds into this evening. High pressure offshore and a coastal thermal trough will develop Saturday, causing gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): In the wake of the cold front last night, temperatures have cooled since midnight into the low 50s and upper 40s and remained steady the last couple of hours. Overcast skies and precipitation will keep highs down on Saturday into the low to mid 50s (normal highs are in the low 70s).
250 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure will move across the southeastern US through the weekend. A trailing cold front extends from the Albemarle Sound southwest toward upstate SC. The boundary will continue shifting south as high pressure (that's currently centered over the southern Plains) begins to build in from the west. The high clouds should also finally exit to our east later this evening and overnight as the upper short wave trough axis (currently located over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys) crosses our area and moves east. The combination of mainly clear skies after midnight, diminishing winds (given the high that's building in), and a cooler airmass behind the aforementioned front. Tranquil weather expected during this time with NW flow and mid/upr short wave ridging, and high pressure over the area. Lows Saturday night around freezing.
1131 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017 Snow will spread over much of the Inland Northwest today with freezing rain or sleet possible over the Moses Lake Area lower portions of the Upper Columbia Basin.
Temperatures near freezing again in many locations, perhaps slightly warmer across the I-10 corridor where high clouds should begin to spread back into the area by morning. Upper low across Mexico will begin to move northeast towards Texas. Increasing cloud cover will also keep temperatures down, ranging from the lower 50s along I-10 to the near 60 degrees across the northern Big Country.
Temperatures have struggled today under mostly cloudy skies with most locations as of 2 pm still in the low to mid 30s. At the surface, high pressure is building in behind a departing cold front. In the upper levels, the axis of the upper level trough is passing to the east with northwesterly flow developing aloft.
Today Through Saturday Night High pressure is over the area but changes are not far away. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected today then the high pressure moves east of the state Saturday. An upper level low in northern Mexico Saturday morning will eject to the northeast Saturday and enter the Plains Sautrday night. As a result moisture will increase across Arkansas Saturday and temperatures will be a bit warmer.
413 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms today, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Large closed low pressure will lift toward the Great Lakes today, dragging a cold front across the region. Upper trough will pivot eastward overnight shower chances lingering.
Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a large upper low circulating over northwestern Missouri, rotating high clouds into south central and the James River Valley early this morning. This is supporting a surface cold front in eastern Montana. Instability parameters also increase this afternoon in combination with the surface cold front progressing into central ND this afternoon and colder air aloft settling in. Northwest winds increase behind the cold front today across western North Dakota. This also goes along with the simulated composite reflectivity of the high resolution radar models indicating areas of higher reflectivities this afternoon. Mid/upper level low in the short term period continues to linger over western/central ND as the large upper low migrates from the central plains into the central plains ejects into the eastern Great Lakes.
505 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 The well-advertised late spring cyclone was in a mature, vertically stacked state across the Midwest this morning. The deformation band of precip was located northeast of the low, but the forcing associated with this band was spread out over a large area, and boundary layer temperature will near or above freezing, so the end result was a few locations with some quick bursts of heavy snow, but no significant accumulations being reported as of yet. The large are of light precip and clouds will slowly try to exit the forecast area from west to east overnight as low temperatures remain in the low to mid 30s.
/06Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period as high pressure over the region moves east later this morning. Gusty northwest winds behind a strong cold front continue across south central Texas this afternoon.
355 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Pleasant weather expected today across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as yesterday's powerful low pressure system continues to lift northeast, well away from the southern plains.
305 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Circulation around upper level low that is exiting northern MO into the Great Lakes to dominate forecast today. Return to more seasonable warmer conditions will then be swift on Tuesday as upper level flow returns zonal.
346 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 At 08Z the cold front was roughly between Clarksville and Nashville. The upper level low that is moving northeast has strong gradient winds associated with it. Zonal winds behind the front and it will be cooler and dry through Tuesday.
High surface pressure will steadily push eastward in the western North Atlantic today as a trough weakens and begins stalling across north Florida.
317 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Weak high pressure just off the Texas coast will continue to drift slowly east today. The high will bring sunny skies today. A return of low level moisture should keep min temps tonight a bit warmer.
Low level flow continues to be south to southeast which is helping to keep the lower level dry air in place. Wrap around moisture around the deep low pressure in the great lakes may try to invade tonight, but there is still some uncertainty, how far southeast this moisture will make it. The main aviation concern will be the development of strong southwest winds behind the exiting cold front on Monday.
A high pressure ridge will build over the west coast early this week, and then move inland over the intermountain west through the mid to latter part of the week. With the high pressure ridge to our west through midweek, dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist over Arizona.
150 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms today, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Updates overnight mainly to adjust temperatures and wind speeds, as gusts have diminished and lows are likely to stay warmer than originally forecast with cloud cover spreading eastward in advance of the front. Large closed low pressure will lift toward the Western Great Lakes today, dragging an occluded front across the region.
1121 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Latest upper level analysis shows the closed low along the KS/OK border moving east. Regarding current warnings, have canceled the high wind warning due to the threat for high winds ending. Monday will be warmer as northwest flow moves over the forecast area. Despite going cooler than almost all guidance, highs maybe too warm, especially where the heavy snowfall occurred. Winds will be a bit breezy west of the deeper snow field where the air will be warmer.
A robust upper low over the lower Missouri Valley troughs down to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico while an upper ridge centered offshore the southeast U. Atlantic high pressure near Latitude 30 North and 65-70 West Longitude extends across FL to the east Gulf. The upper level closed low along with it/s trough tracks northeast. becoming an open trough over Quebec. while the Yucatan portion of the upper ridge nudges northward over the Gulf.
523 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 The cold front continues to work its way across the region this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this morning ahead of a cold front that will be moving into central Kentucky shortly. No flooding issues look imminent tonight across the Flash Flood Watch area, but will likely hold on to it for a few hours until the cold front moves through. Cooler air will filter in today behind the front.
A deep cyclone and yesterdays active weather maker for the area was positioned over northern Missouri early this morning. Sharply drier and somewhat and cooler air has settled into the area south of this feature and behind an associated cold front now stretching along the Appalachians and through the central Gulf of Mexico.
325 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Large upper low responsible for heavy rainfall over the weekend continues slow progress northeast. Wrap around low clouds will gradually clear this morning as as a result, temperatures will be much warmer this afternoon.
500 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Upper level trough continues to lift northward this morning into the middle/upper MS Valley with increasingly drier air evident on water vapor imagery spilling behind the low. At the surface, high pressure is now dominating while the departing low to our north is is still allowing for a strong pressure gradient along the middle River Valley and farther eastward into southern Arkansas and north central Louisiana. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s north to near 80 degrees along I-20 and slightly warmer farther south toward Toledo Bend Country.
/issued 253 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Our temperature roller coaster ride will continue this week with highs well above normal to start the week followed by a cold front midweek. Highs will reach mostly into the 80's this afternoon and with all the wind we have had lately, it will be a very nice day! Even warmer conditions are expected Tuesday ahead of another strong cold front.
Tonight through Tuesday Light showers will persist for a few hours this evening as upper level low over eastern Kansas moves off to the northeast.
Low level flow continues to be south to southeast which is helping to keep the lower level dry air in place. Wrap around moisture around the deep low pressure in the great lakes may try to invade tonight, but there is still some uncertainty, how far southeast this moisture will make it.
Convection is redeveloping just ahead of the cold front in eastern MS, mainly along the AL/MS border. Adjusted grids for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight to handle the movement of the storms and cold front across the area. Much drier and cooler air is forecast to move in behind the front on Monday. A weak area of high pressure will remain over the Tennessee Valley through Tuesday night, as a slow warming trend occurs.
324 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 The upper low pressure system which brought widespread precipitation to our region was centered in northwest Missouri early this morning and this will lift out/depart the plains today. Heights rise behind the departing upper low and after days of widepsread cloud cover and intermittent precipitation, we will see some sunshine and a rise in temperatures. Models have trended warmer with highs today but have not gone quite as warm as guidance suggests due to the wet ground and the new snow accumulations across our west/southwest zones. The newly fallen snow in the west will melt quickly today with highs forecast well above freezing in the 50s/60s. The surface gradient will begin to relax today as the low pressure system departs, however deep mixing will continue to produce steady/gusty winds into the afternoon.
Strong high pressure will build over the region for the latter half of the week.
Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific continues to be the dominant weather feature.
253 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Our temperature roller coaster ride will continue this week with highs well above normal to start the week followed by a cold front midweek. Highs will reach mostly into the 80's this afternoon and with all the wind we have had lately, it will be a very nice day! Even warmer conditions are expected Tuesday ahead of another strong cold front.
306 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this morning ahead of a cold front that will be moving into central Kentucky shortly. No flooding issues look imminent tonight across the Flash Flood Watch area, but will likely hold on to it for a few hours until the cold front moves through. Cooler air will filter in today behind the front.
412 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 The well-advertised late spring cyclone was in a mature, vertically stacked state across the Midwest this morning. The deformation band of precip was located northeast of the low, but the forcing associated with this band was spread out over a large area, and boundary layer temperature will near or above freezing, so the end result was a few locations with some quick bursts of heavy snow, but no significant accumulations being reported as of yet. The large are of light precip and clouds will slowly try to exit the forecast area from west to east overnight as low temperatures remain in the low to mid 30s.
1125 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Classic mid latitude cyclone over ern KS this afternoon, with well developed wrap around band/trowal exiting ern CO as of 20z. Weak trough then pushes into the central Rockies toward Mon morning, spreading high clouds across the state, along with a few snow showers over the peaks of the central mountains, especially after midnight. Wly surface wind, increasing clouds and modest warming aloft should keep temps from falling much below freezing over the plains, though snow covered areas will likely hang out around 32f for much of the night.
/EC/ Leftover moisture axis over eastern sections has allowed for convective development this evening as the cold front has closed in. The cold front will move across the area this afternoon through the evening hours and this will bring in drier air along with clearing skies as we get into the overnight hours.
348 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 As of this morning, upper level low pressure was centered over northwest Missouri, with widespread cloudiness associated with the ample moisture around the stacked low. Scattered showers will continue to rotate around the low this morning, but with primary focus for ascent on the northern periphery of the low and the progressive nature of the system to the northeast, precipitation chances should terminate by noon. A strong pressure gradient on the backside of the low will result in breezy northwest winds today, with peak wind gusts near 30 mph occurring during the late morning and early afternoon. High pressure will briefly move into the area late tonight into Tuesday in advance of the next upper wave.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Upper level low continues to lift northeast across the midwest and into the Great Lakes region with zonal flow prevailing across southern Texas.
A strong ridge of higher pressure will build over the region starting Tuesday.
326 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 An approaching cold front today will move through the forecast area this evening.
105 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Scattered thunderstorms were accompanying the cold front, which at 800 pm, was crossing the Mississippi River. This line of developing convection should spread eastward across CWA during this evening with the cold front. Between a half and 1 inch of rain is possible during this afternoon and evening, before showers and thunderstorms chances diminish overnight behind cold front. Cooler highs in the lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL. Models still deepen an upper level trof over the central and southern Plains Wed and into the mid/lower MS river valley on Thu.
401 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 An approaching cold front today will move through the forecast area this evening.