Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 (Today and tonight) The main item of interest the next 24 hours will be a surface cold front that will affect the area, and convective chances associated with the front. Temperatures will be cooler again today, and roughly a few degrees higher than normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 90s across the northern Big Country, to the mid 90s elsewhere. Temperatures tonight will also be cooler behind the front, with overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s across the Big Country, to around 70 along the I-10 corridor.
Quiet conditions are expected today with light winds and considerably warmer temperatures as high pressure builds over the region.
905 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will move in today and tonight before traveling southeast on Thursday. High pressure will follow, bringing dry weather for the weekend. Multicell clusters are the likely storm mode thanks to relatively weak shear parallel to the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as the cold front progresses southeast. For Thursday, widespread showers and thunderstorms during the morning are expected to show a decreasing trend Thursday afternoon as the cold front pushes south of the Ohio River. A cooling trend will be noted thanks to clouds and advection behind the cold front, with highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest up to the upper 70s southeast. This high will offer dry weather conditions.
There are no major forecast concerns the next few days, but will concentrate mainly on temperatures and timing the highest chances for precipitation. Highs were mostly in the upper 70s and lower 80s, but were cooler in our northern zones. The high at Norfolk was 73, Albion hit 72, Wayne reached 71 and Yankton topped out at 68. High pressure at the surface was centered over WY and northeast CO early this morning, and a frontal boundary was draped from central IL back to southern NM.
632 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Cold front is currently bisecting our area, extending from near UGN southwest to around PIA. Temps today will be cooler, particularly near and downwind of Lake Michigan this afternoon as a healthy lake breeze front pushes inland and sends temps falling into the 60s.
After a cool day today, skies clear quickly this evening and winds go light/variable as high pressure moves into the area. This will result in a very cool night with temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
Across Middle and North Park, clouds will clear a bit quicker and highs there may end up warmer than the Denver metro. Lows will range from near 30F across the high country to the low 40s over much of the plains. On Fri, westerly flow aloft will be over the area, as a sfc lee trough intensifies along the front range.
The main slow moving cold front still remained just to the west and northwest of the CWA. This will allow for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and move into the CWA as the slow moving cold front finally makes it into the region. Afternoon temperatures today still remain somewhat dependent on where outflow boundaries set up and the movement of the cold front.
As high pressure seemed to park itself aloft over the region, temperatures responded in a warm way with all 5 climate sites seeing top ten warm months of May.
645 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A short wave trough will move into the Central Plains today and will lead to another round of storms this morning.
along a cold front. Today Through Thursday Night An upper ridge over the eastern third of the country this morning will slowly weaken today and Thursday. An upper trough in the Plains will move into the Midwest tonight. High pressure will build over south Texas. A cold front in southwest Missouri will move into northwest Arkansas this morning and bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s today and lower 70s to mid 80s Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will move into the state Thursday night. Lows will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s tonight and mid 50s to mid 60s Thursday night.
321 AM MST Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure will result in seasonably dry conditions, and a return to above normal temperatures.
717 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday and hang up to the southeast keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday. Changes for the post dawn update included tweaks to POPs and weather based on the latest high resolution trends of slightly slower convective onset via the encroaching cold front. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
Warm afternoons will continue through tomorrow for the interior as high pressure shifts over the West Coast. Widespread rain is looking likely this weekend as a large trough approaches. High pressure over the West Coast will continue to slowly shift eastward into the latter part of the work week as a mid to upper-level trough approaches. Afternoon highs across the interior will still be warm this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon with high pressure still in control over the region.
Upper-level flow is southwesterly at this time as a ridge is positioned to the east and a trough to the west. An organized line of showers and storms along a cold front are located just northwest of Joplin, MO to Jefferson City, MO with showers stretching further northeast. Models have come into better agreement on keeping the cold front in the southern portions of the CWA tonight, continuing the scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm potential into Thursday morning.
High pressure continues to build over the region today, which will limit instability some. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to warm, reaching seasonal normals in the low to mid 70s for western Montana valleys and near 80 for the lower valleys of north central Idaho.
HRRR has been in and out on the convective potential with the MCV, with the 18Z run suggesting more of a chance associated with the cold front itself early this evening. Will continue with the higher chance PoP's near/south of I-70 into this evening, and thunder chances will be confined to this general region in the new forecast.
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Cold front is currently bisecting our area, extending from near UGN southwest to around PIA. Temps today will be cooler, particularly near and downwind of Lake Michigan this afternoon as a healthy lake breeze front pushes inland and sends temps falling into the 60s.
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 The upper level ridge is breaking down and will allow a cold front to sag southward into Central PA early tonight.
The upper ridge, now weaker than the past few days is basically centered over the top of Central Alabama. PoPs will remain around 20 percent areawide this afternoon with hot and humid conditions and highs generally in the lower 90s. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected to re-develop on Thursday out ahead of the approaching cold front in a diurnally-driven fashion with plenty of moisture and instability to work with.
(This evening through Thursday) Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to feed northwest into West Central Texas, ahead of an approaching cold front. Models also showing some more scattered showers and storms for Thursday morning behind the cold front, especially across the southern half of the area. Otherwise, Cooler behind the front with highs on Thursday in the 70s and 80s.
(This evening through Thursday) Upper level ridge is currently over parts of Texas and Mexico will build into the northern Gulf coast. The associated high pressure with the ridge will remain over the area through at least the weekend.
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 As a cold front continues to sag into the CWA, convective debris is still decaying over northern Indiana and Illinois. In regards to temperatures, expect a dip into the upper 50s overnight across the entire area, as dry air behind the cold front seeps in. Models disagree in how far the cold front pushes in overnight, so a few showers stay in the forecast into the morning, especially south of Indianapolis. Temperatures and humidity will be slightly lower after the front, with below-average highs in the low to mid 70s.
214 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Temperatures will be above normal this afternoon ahead of a cold front moving slowly through the Ohio Valley. Once the front moves to the east, dry and cooler weather will return for weekend. The region is still under the influence of a 500mb ridge this afternoon. A cold front will approach the region during the day on Thursday. Cooler and dry.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon through the evening, primarily along and south of the actual slow- moving synoptic cold front bisecting the CWA this afternoon (mainly southeastern MO/southwestern IL) with SBCAPE and MUCAPE exceeding 1000 to near 2000 J/kg across these locations and a mid- level perturbation/MCV currently over KS/OK progged to propagate eastward over MO. Weak mid-level height falls/ascent leading an upper-level trough traversing the Midwest tonight into Thursday, may be able to induce a few additional showers near the reflection of the cold front at 850-hPa advancing slowly eastward, but instability should wane through the first half of the night, limiting the potential for thunderstorms beyond that point.
A broad low pressure system was edging east through the NE Pacific early this afternoon with a shallow ridge building downstream across the NW states. Under the ridge, we are seeing some shallow convection developing across the CNTRL and NE mountains which is expected to lingering into the early evening hours before dissipating. The ridge continues to amplify and shift east across SE Idaho Thursday resulting in warmer temperatures and isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across mainly the CNTRL mountains.
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure near the Mid-Atlantic region will linger this afternoon. A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday night and bring some severe thunderstorms and possible flooding Thursday afternoon and evening. High pressure returns shortly thereafter heading into the weekend. Temperatures have reached the lower to middle 90s across the eastern half of the region. A strong cold front dropping southeastward out of the Lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley will slide across our region on Thursday and pass through the region Thursday night. However, as daytime heating evolves and the front comes closer to the mid-Atlantic region, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of and along the cold front.
1009 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 (Issued 952 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022) Current forecast remains on track with the leading edge of the high pressure slowly pushing into the area today through the end of the week. Wagner (Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022) Today through Thursday Night: With the front pushing off to the southeast weak high pressure will dominate the region. Throughout the day however this high pressure will weaken though this will keep weather quiet through the day.
Deeper moisture will move in from the northwest later tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front, but as this moisture moves into Middle Tennessee instability will be on a quick decline. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Frontal boundary will clear the area overnight Thursday, leaving behind a period of somewhat cooler and drier weather through at least the first half of the weekend.
We're still expecting a warm day regardless of the cloud cover with highs in the lower 80's west of the Cascades and mid to upper 70's east of the Cascades. However, it seems the high clouds are well resolved by the models and NBM this afternoon, so we didn't make any changes to the forecast. /Issued 421 AM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022/ An upper level ridge over the area will result in warm and dry weather today. Then the ridge strengthens inland while an upper low approaching the PacNW on Thursday, resulting in chances for showers and thunderstorms.
As a result, most of the models are missing the low level boundaries and qpf forecasts. The forecast for early tonight will contain a more broad brush chance pop for the forecast area, as opposed to the categorical pops indicated by the high-res models. The remnants of the boundary will be overtaken by the synoptic scale cold front overnight, which will then bring a well-defined surge of drier and cooler air.
Mostly clear, warmer, and drier through mid-day Thursday as a Pacific upper ridge passes through our CWA.
High-resolution guidance suggests this activity picking up in areal coverage through the afternoon with the interaction of a pre-frontal trough, delivering a chance of precipitation for all of the Ark-La-Tex region today.
High pressure will settle in tonight and on Thursday, keeping winds light and clearing skies.
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure across the region with above normal temperatures through Thursday.
Hi res models were painting the higher terrain for the best shot at getting a tenth to two tenths of an inch for rain totals, so focused the higher PoPs there.
An upper level ridge to the northwest of the area will move closer to the area today, brining some slightly drier air and increasing mid/upper level subsidence that will result in a lower coverage (about 20-30 percent) of showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon, mainly starting along the coast and moving inland with the seabreeze and across southeast Mississippi. The upper ridge will weaken somewhat by Thursday as a weak upper trough moves across the Ohio Valley. The weaker upper ridge along with the approaching frontal boundary will likely bring an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon, especially west of the Alabama River and along portions of the coast west of Pensacola, where chance PoPs return to the forecast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 88 65 82 61 / 10 60 40 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 87 64 80 58 / 10 60 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 86 62 80 57 / 20 70 50 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 85 60 77 53 / 20 70 70 10 0.
343 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure will build into the region today through Thursday.
132 PM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A weak area of high pressure over the region today will be replaced with a troughing pattern Thursday into the weekend.
*WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES Model guidance appears to be in good agreement in the overall pattern into the weekend, with an upper level low persisting over Manitoba/Ontario Canada.
The better lift and moisture will pass to our south near the surface cold front.
The same upper low that brought precipitation to the region a few days ago will drop a bit further south. This is due to a two cutoff lows over the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Manitoba while a high pressure system sits over Alberta. This Omega blocking pattern is going to cause very little variation to the weather into the weekend.
Main cold front is holding over the Thumb area this afternoon in response to a weak wave that developed along this boundary. Secondary cold front has reached our far NW CWA. providing a reinforcing shot of much cooler and drier air into our region tonight.
A very mild night is in store with the lows by daybreak expected to be around 70F.
700 mb temperatures will still be on the cold side, but mostly sunny skies should allow for high temperatures to rise about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than they were yesterday. Another calm and dry day is expected on Thursday as the upper-level ridge sits over the Rockies. This will usher in some warmer 700 mb temperatures, and thus warmer temperatures at the surface. There is still no evidence of the typical summer-time four corners high pressure developing into the second week of June, so expect temperatures to remain within 5 to 10 degrees of climatological averages around the area.
This may be in part due to the upper low parked just east of Florida, which could have put us in a favorable subsident localized jet region.
114 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will move in today and tonight before traveling southeast on Thursday. High pressure will follow, bringing dry weather for the weekend. Multicell clusters are the likely storm mode thanks to relatively weak shear parallel to the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as the cold front progresses southeast. For Thursday, widespread showers and thunderstorms during the morning are expected to show a decreasing trend Thursday afternoon as the cold front pushes south of the Ohio River. A cooling trend will be noted thanks to clouds and advection behind the cold front, with highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest up to the upper 70s southeast. This high will offer dry weather conditions.
This storm is in the vicinity of a southeastward sagging cold front. --Showers/thunderstorms this morning, then clearing today-- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the central/southern CWA as of 3 AM in conjunction with a surface cold front progressing through Lower Michigan. Behind the cold front, insolation/surface heating, coupled with low- level cold advection, should foster deep boundary-layer mixing and breezy conditions on Fri afternoon. The deep closed low currently over Manitoba is expected to meander very slowly eastward into Ontario through Sun night, eventually comprising the southern portion of a Rex block--with the counterpart upper-level anticyclone over northern Canada. South of this developing blocking complex, fairly fast/zonal flow aloft should develop over the Midwest. Marine headlines (possibly SCA and Beach Hazards) may be needed again by Thu night/Fri as a cold front traverses the region.
301 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 The upper level ridge is breaking down and will allow a cold front to sag southward into Central PA early tonight.
1110 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 An upper level ridge will break down today, allowing a weak cold front to sag into northern PA this evening and remain in the picture through Thursday.
334 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Discussion/Marine Just a few lingering patches of light rain are being produced in the vicinity of a cold front in southern Michigan this evening. Otherwise it will be mostly dry through much of tonight until another midlevel trough produces light rain (if not virga) around daybreak Thursday.
Thursday night, while not as cold as the previous night, will still bring chilly 50s for overnight temperatures as well as slight/low chances for thunderstorms that may develop over the higher terrain of CO and spread eastward into the overnight.
A warm front will begin to develop Thursday and strengthen Thursday night. The temperature forecast Thursday uses the 50th percentile NBM which is cooler than the short term model blend. Continued partial cloudiness and south winds Thursday night suggested the short term model blend which is warmer than the guidance blend. Meanwhile, the Canada portion of the block- an upper level low centered near Hudson Bay, will support frontogenesis across SD and maintain a stationary front across Nebraska. The models show the northeast Pacific upper low setting up a more or less continuous stream of upper level moisture.
1125 AM MDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Current surface map places weak high pressure across Montana into the western Dakotas. Flat ridge over the Rockies combined with stalled upper low between Lake Winnipeg and Hudson Bay will result in persistent west-northwest flow across the area through the weekend. With filtered sunshine today, highs will be around 10F warmer than yesterday.
The main cold front continues to linger back in Kansas this afternoon. The chances of showers and storms will increase near the main cold front later this evening and into the overnight hours as the cold front moves across the region. (Thursday through Wednesday) The showers and storms will exit the region Thursday morning as the cold front exits the region.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front currently stretched across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push across our area increasing chances for more surface based convection through this evening. A cooling trend starts Thursday afternoon on the back side of the cold front a north winds bring in cooler than seasonably temperatures. Thursday afternoon MaxT's are forecast to be mild and perhaps 10 degrees cooler than average for early June.
Temperatures will warm to around normal for this time of the year, with the valleys in western Montana reaching the low 70s, and the low 80s in the lowest valleys of north-central Idaho.
GEFS 500 mb spaghetti plots and the ensemble-based WPC Cluster Analysis tool show high confidence in the mid-range forecast period being driven by a surface to 500 mb closed low pressure over far northwestern Ontario and northeastern Manitoba.
Discussion: The water vapor loop this afternoon shows a modestly amplified pattern in place across the Nation compared to yesterday, thanks to the fact that the large extra-tropical cyclone that was over Great Lakes lifted north into Canada overnight, ultimately helping to de- amplify the flow by opening up the westerlies a bit. As a result, a weak trough is seen starting to shift east across the Northern and Central Plains within that zonal flow, which will bring some more scattered showers to the region this afternoon and evening. Closer to home, the frontal boundary, that was in northwest Missouri yesterday, slowly shifted into Central Missouri overnight as cooler and drier air forced the boundary south.
Thursday Night Through Wednesday Upper lows over the Pacific Ocean and Canada will provide a fairly stable, nearly zonal flow over the northern CONUS through the period.
238 PM MDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Stacked low pressure over central Canada allowed for a NW flow over the CWA today that will continue again on Thursday. The other concern will be the low temperatures again tonight.
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A short wave trough will move into the Central Plains today and will lead to another round of storms this morning.
Thursday also looks to be relatively free of clouds, so could get a little warmer than today. Areas of central SD will be a little warmer as a result. An upper low southwest of Hudson's Bay is expected to remain nearly stationary. This upper low will help maintain cooler temps across the forecast area for much of the period. 2m/H850 temp anomaly progs continue to indicate an overall cooler than average pattern for the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, energy rotating around that upper low, and also energy exiting the Rockies will provide for a few opportunities for rain through the forecast time period.
233 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cooler and drier air mass is spreading across Upper Michigan early this morning, which is likely to set the stage for a perfectly pleasant Wednesday. GEFS 500 mb spaghetti plots and the ensemble-based WPC Cluster Analysis tool show high confidence in the mid-range forecast period being driven by a surface to 500 mb closed low pressure over far northwestern Ontario and northeastern Manitoba.
927 AM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure aloft will bring warming today with the warming continuing into Thursday for the deserts.
Cool and quiet weather continues tonight as we remain under the influence of a closed upper low over the Canadian Prairie.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure persists across Deep South Texas with the remnants of the EastPac Agatha trying to kick up a new disturbance near the Yucatan by late week.
1248 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure across the region with above normal temperatures.
Tonight, expect a weak cold front to push through, which will lead to a bit of variability across the region in high temperatures for Thursday.
With a mid-level ridge aloft exerting some influence on the region and dry air aloft, convection across most of the area has been meager and is helping to actually mix drier air to the surface. Some of the high-res guidance bring upstream showers and storms from OK/AR into the Delta tomorrow morning, which makes the chances for storms later in the day somewhat uncertain. Generally speaking though, showers and thunderstorm chances will increase through the day ahead of and along a cold front moving into our forecast area.