Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest observations show a cold front still well north of the CWA, south of Monroe. Much cooler air will be pushing into the region today as this boundary comes through.
Expect MVFR conditions across deep south Texas today as a cold front moves through the Rio Grande valley late this morning into early this afternoon. /issued 409 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Satellite and radar images indicate convection diminishing across southeast and south-central Texas as the cold front moves into south Texas early this morning. Temperatures will remain steady or fall across most of the area this afternoon as much cooler air filters into the area in the wake of the front. Strong north winds will develop in the wake of the front especially across the lower TX coast this afternoon. Lows will be considerably cooler than the past several nights.
Light winds today and a bit warmer 925 mb temps this aftn, esp in the nrn RRV with little snow cover. High temps therefore a bit warmer but still well below normal, just not record cold highs. Cold 500 mb temps combined with sfc heating and some 850 mb moisture is expected to cause some stratocu to form with focus once again in the nrn RRV with the warmer temps.
1017 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure builds into the area today into Sunday with seasonably cold weather continuing and a few mainly mountain flurries or light snow showers.
757 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Snow will continue to taper off today as high pressure builds in. The high should maintain dry weather Sunday. Snow should continue to diminish from N-S this morning as frontogenesis and upper support wanes behind an exiting cold front. A wave of low pressure moving along the front should maintain snow chances near the higher terrain areas of WV and MD as that area is progged to be on the northern fringes of the low's associated precip. Additional accumulation should be less than an inch for most locations, with 1-3 inches in the higher terrain of WV and MD. Otherwise, dry weather is expected as high pressure begins to build.
Given surface temperatures above freezing, expect no travel concerns. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Remnants of overnight convective complex are continuing to provide showers over the far southern portions, while isolated showers are dotted over northern portions associated with southward moving cold front. Meanwhile, strong low level cold advection behind the front may provide deep enough sub-freezing layer for a few ice pellets to mix in with the rain over far northwest portions later this morning into early afternoon. These conditions will not be ideal for strong radiational cooling, but they will be sufficient, given the coldness of this airmass, for sub-freezing temperatures over the northern third with some frost also able to form as far south as I20.
An upper ridge will move east across Montana today. This will allow for somewhat warmer temperatures. A frontal boundary over Western Montana will begin to move east as a warm front today with moisture overrunning it.
Nearly all of the showers of light sleet, freezing rain, and snow are moving to the east of it.
Cold high pressure will build into central Indiana today, keeping conditions dry through the day Sunday.
1050 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure will move into the area today and bring showers and possible thunderstorms. The low will lift northeast of the area tonight. High pressure in the wake of the system will dominate briefly Sunday.
This will be the result of a secondary cold front moving through the area this morning. There may be a brief lull in activity just behind the front, but look for another round of showers to move in across the north after Noon with the main upper level feature riding along the bottom side of the trough in place.
The welcome (albeit limited) moisture will soak into the dry soils this afternoon as April sunshine pushes temperatures well above freezing. Light and variable winds at midday will trend SE around 10 mph toward sunset, as cold high pressure begins its exit to the east. Expect SE winds to pick up noticeably, gusting at times near 30 mph overnight, as a well defined warm front surges into SW Kansas. Conceptually, this is a classic pattern for overrunning precipitation north of the retreating warm front. In this instance, however, the cold front is sinking deep into Texas, drastically reducing the amount of moisture that SE winds tonight will be able to tap. Much warmer.
Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from the Canadian plains through the northern and central plains resulting in frigid temperatures over much of the area. Upper level analysis places trough over the Great Lakes and ridge over the western United States, with deep low spinning off the Pacific northwest shore.
NatBlend winds remain below advisory criteria over the area, except for along the higher ridges of the north Georgia mountains where there are a few hours late this afternoon into the evening when we are likely to see some marginal winds. Precipitation presses east of the forecast area this evening with noticeably cooler air spilling into the north behind the exiting low. 20 High pressure has moved offshore by Sunday night and an old frontal boundary is situated across the central Florida peninsula.
Agreement amongst guidance continues and their initializations look good, especially their placement of the upper low off the Pacific Northwest from which the wave will eject. Further west during the secondary impulse the mid levels actually look to dry out a bit, leaving a chance for freezing rain/drizzle along and southwest of roughly a 6E5-FSD-SPW line by 18z.
0 KFT AGL) are near the warmer end of the favorable DGZ - around -12 to 13C. In between these two areas of potentially patchy light snow, much of the Central Ridge and Valley region with see variable amounts of shallow stratocu and alto cu with virtually no chc of precip. There may be a few snow showers downwind of the lower Lakes across north-central PA.
Current depiction of the upper level pattern features northwest flow over the central Plains with a Western CONUS ridge and broad mature upper cyclone over the Hudson Bay region. Cold frontal boundary has made its way all the way into the southern Plains. High pressure will dominate the local pattern today with subsidence and clearing skies in complete control through the daytime hours. Center of the high is progged to be nearly overhead so winds will be calm today. Winds veer to the southeast into the overnight period as high pressure slides east and should act to keep overnight lows in the upper 20s. Whatever snow falls and possibly sticks in the northern counties in the morning will melt with the warmer temperatures and rain in the afternoon.
1045 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A frontal boundary south of Long Island and into to Mid Atlantic region will become stationary this afternoon as low pressure develops along the front and passes well south and east of the area late tonight into Sunday.
806 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure will move into the area today and bring showers and possible thunderstorms. The low will lift northeast of the area tonight. High pressure in the wake of the system will dominate briefly Sunday.
At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure stretches from the Mid-Atlantic, southwest to the mouth of the Mississippi. The synoptic cold front stretches along the aforementioned trough axis. In the wake of an MCS that's now moving through the northern Gulf, a relatively stable environment exists along and just ahead of the synoptic front, and has helped develop a sharp theta-e ridge locally. This pocket of instability, coupled with the upper-level support of the trough, has resulted in scattered convection across the Big Bend this morning.
Very low dewpoint temperatures will continue through the near term, and with generally clear skies and very light winds resulting from the ridging, will see temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s across most of the area tonight. Some low 30s possible along the immediate coast, and a few normally colder interior locations possibly dropping into the lower 20s. While freezing temperatures are expected across most of the forecast area tonight, we will not meet the criteria for a Hard Freeze, as temperatures should remain above 20 degrees.
323 AM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 A upper-level high pressure ridge remains over the region today with increasing cloud cover during the day. Some areas of dense freezing fog and low clouds may impact the valleys of Southwest Montana. The valleys of southwest Montana may struggle to warm in the next few days, before the next cold front swings through during the day on Saturday, with light rain and snow showers possible.
932 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Persistent cold air advection blowing across relatively warm waters from the western half of the Lower Keys to near Dry Tortugas and extending southward continues to generate mostly cloudy skies with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Surface wise, a massive arctic region of high pressure (1041 mb) is located over south central Canada, with an extensive ridge reaching down the entire east central United States and down the Sunshine State.
Temperatures have warmed up to or several degrees above freezing across the majority of the Four-State Region this morning, with the warmest temperatures noted across east Texas. Slightly warmer temperatures expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper 20s across northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas to the mid 30s across east Texas. Gradual warming trend to continue through Saturday with the warmer temperatures mainly reflected in the overnight lows as moisture increases across the region. Low temperatures on Saturday night to remain above freezing across the entire region ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
640 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Cold high pressure will dominate through the weekend.
A upper-level high pressure ridge remains over the region today with increasing cloud cover during the day. Some areas of dense freezing fog and low clouds may impact the valleys of Southwest Montana. The valleys of southwest Montana may struggle to warm in the next few days, before the next cold front swings through during the day on Saturday, with light rain and snow showers possible.
A reinforcing cold front will move across the area late this afternoon/early evening with winds becoming northwesterly between 5 and 15kts initially, then light by midnight.
High pressure will be over the area today before a weather system moves through the Great Basin on Saturday.
405 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Deep polar trough is still encompassing the eastern half of the country with a strong ridge over the west U. The deep trough will begin to deamplify while lifting northeast this afternoon into Saturday.
312 AM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 00Z hand analysis at H500 shows that the western ridge axis has been shoved eastward and basically extends across the Great Basin to the Yukon. Troughing extends off the Left Coast from the Gulf of Alaska and water vapor imagery this morning is showing several embedded circulations in this area of low pressure. Expect some virga and high mountain showers to break out tomorrow afternoon as the center of the higher jet winds come into play and aid large scale ascent. The very dry low layers however will need the main push of the trough before seeing precipitation hit the lower valley floors. So have continued to favor pops on the highest terrain in the central CO mountains in the short term.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 17 32 18 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 10 27 13 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 26 10 28 14 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 23 5 23 7 / 0 0 0 0 NC.
538 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Clouds will gradually decrease from northeast as a strong high pressure centered over northern Minnesota moves southeastward over the weekend. This will keep the area under a easterly surface flow pattern, leaving most of the low to mid level moisture west of I-29.
359 AM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 Upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin with a light to moderate west and northwest flow aloft. By late afternoon, the higher west facing slopes could see up to 3 inches of snowfall.
/Issued 345 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018/ Noticeably warmer temps expected today ahead of a weak cold front which will move into NE OK this afternoon.
917 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 High pressure will keep skies mostly sunny today, though there are a few clouds in the north that have made the long trip from Lake Superior.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure over the area will provide light winds and mostly clear skies. Today Through Saturday Night Northwest flow aloft continues across the state this morning, with high pressure at the surface centered north of Minnesota extending south toward the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today with quite a bit of sunshine expected along with light winds. High pressure will intensify from the north on Saturday bringing cooler air back to the area and widespread easterly winds. This will be brief however, with high pressure expected to shift eastward Saturday night.
251 AM PST Fri Jan 5 2018 Partly cloudy and mild weather will continue through the weekend under high pressure.
954 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Cold high pressure will dominate through the weekend.
Surface winds will mainly veer with high pressure in control. Significant high cloudiness in the form of cirrus overhead will be greatly reduced if not eliminated altogether tonight through Saturday as a 500 mb trough passes through today.
High pressure aloft will persist across the region through tonight.
951 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 High pressure will build from the Northwest Today.
25 inches and there is a broad and strong inversion through the lower atmosphere. /issued 405 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018/ Deep polar trough is still encompassing the eastern half of the country with a strong ridge over the west U. The deep trough will begin to deamplify while lifting northeast this afternoon into Saturday.
An upper trough resides off the Pacific Northwest coast this morning with a low center observed in satellite lifting slowly north just off southern Oregon. A short wave that extends eastward from this low extends inland and is wrapping northward. The broad upper trough over the west coast will shear and dig through afternoon and evening while another short wave seen off the BC coast digs south into Southern Oregon by Saturday morning. This next short wave will bring some additional showers to mainly areas west of the Cascades late tonight and Saturday morning with some cooler air as well. High pressure follows Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend.
A layer of warm air aloft is showing up on temperature observations in the mountains, confirming the expected set up for freezing rain or drizzle this evening and overnight. The big question remains which valleys will break out of their inversions today and have much less impact from any potential freezing rain. Right now it looks as though most of Northwest Montana down to and including Missoula is at risk of some freezing drizzle and/or freezing rain. Snow, rain, freezing drizzle, and freezing rain are possible and some locations will receive them at some point through Saturday morning.
Another cold start to the morning with widespread freezing conditions away from the Space and Treasure Coasts. Confidence in widespread freezing temperatures is lower compared to previous nights for a couple of reasons. 2) A weak onshore component to the low- level flow is expected as winds continue to veer overnight, bringing some moisture and higher dew points off of the Atlantic. Despite this, still expect another night of well-below normal temperatures, ranging from the lower 30s along and to the northwest of the I-4 corridor and mid 30s across inland sections of the Space and Treasure Coasts. Warmer temps, closer to 40, will be found closer to the beaches south of Cape Canaveral.
Freezing rain is possible at lower elevations while in the mountains, snow levels will be around 6k feet. For tonight into Saturday, an upper trough will track through the Pacific NW, bringing widespread precipitation. Lower valleys/basins in northern Malheur, Harney and Baker counties and the Weiser basin and lower Treasure Valley (west of the Ada/Canyon county line) could see freezing rain, especially at the onset when precipitation intensity is light. Otherwise snow levels are 6-7k feet ahead of the cold front so remaining valley locations will see a cold rain. Drier conditions develop west to east on Saturday as the upper trough pushes into eastern Idaho.
420 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 In the upper pattern a broad trough remains over the Eastern US while a ridge remains over the West.
A low pressure system near the border of California and Oregon will reach the area this afternoon. The cold front associated with it will sweep across the region this evening. Expect the low pressure system to exit tonight and be followed by weak high pressure aloft on Saturday.
Significant high cloudiness in the form of cirrus overhead will be greatly reduced if not eliminated altogether tonight through Saturday as a 500 mb trough passes through today.
High pressure will remain just upstream leading to light NW winds. Highs were bumped up a few degrees in spots, more towards a MET/MAV blend with previous forecast as morning temperatures may start a little warmer than forecast.
Winds will be from the northwest during the day today, and then become light and somewhat variable tonight as high pressure moves south into the region. High pressure will continue to sink south today and tonight, with northwest winds through the day today.
1258 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Aviation Fair weather is expected today through Tuesday evening with high pressure sliding through the Great Lakes region. Highs will be near normal both days, from around 80 today to the low to mid 80s on Tuesday.
931 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A weak cold front will move south of the area by late this morning.
1244 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week. Front will finally pick up speed this morning and head southward as the main trough axis swings through Ohio. With a split flow within the trough, the northern wave moving quickly toward Southern Canada and the southern diving through Kentucky, there will be only meager large scale ascent available over the region as the upper level system passes through. It looks like the best location to see more organized convection would be late in the day over the ridges. The surface boundary begins to diminish as it encounters the higher elevations and this will allow for modest low-level convergence to develop, which may be enough to pop a few storms.
Satellite early this morning shows upper high over eastern Kansas while a slow moving vorticity lobe was spinning along the northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado border. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. The high resolution models offer differing solutions with the precipitation associated with the slow moving wave late tonight as it moves into north central Kansas with the consensus remaining mainly along and west of U. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
A strong upper level ridge gradually builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion of the week bringing a return to hot humid conditions. In fact, it looks like the frontal boundary and associated moisture may attempt to move north slightly as the trough amplifies to the west. It looks like the upper trough will finally start to move east on Tuesday. Will need to maintain chance pops across SE VA/NE NC on Tuesday with the moisture continuing in advance of the trough. Will also go with isolated storms across the remainder of the area Tuesday afternoon given the upper trough axis is overhead.
1000 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 An upper level trough will affect the weather today and Tuesday. After another period of tranquil weather during the middle of the week, another cold front may approach the region by the end of the week. Morning analysis depicts upper level trough and surface front located across the Ohio Valley northward through western Pennsylvania and into western New York. While the surface boundary will stall and wash out over the next couple of days, the upper trough will move eastward and over the region through today. It should also be noted that a capping inversion also exists between 700-800mb that should limit thunderstorm development for areas east of the Blue Ridge, while a weaker cap and daytime terrain circulations will lead to a greater risk for areas west.
Still should see a few cumulus clouds over the mountain ridges this afternoon and evening.
749 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Aviation Fair weather is expected today through Tuesday evening with high pressure sliding through the Great Lakes region. Highs will be near normal both days, from around 80 today to the low to mid 80s on Tuesday.
There will be a couple showers and thunderstorms around the higher terrain which is generally dealt with in the forecast.
High pressure returning to control the beginning of the work week as a front slowly moves through the southern extent of the state. The ridge aloft over the southwestern portions of the country starts broadening through the southern half of the country, putting Central IL on the cusp between weak NW flow and weakly zonal flow/very weak gradient. which will result in heat indices back into the low 100s.
/Issued 445 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ Latest upper level analysis places an expanding area of high pressure over the southwest CONUS with a separate area of anti- cyclonic flow over the east-central Plains. Deterministic guidance keeps enough low/mid level moisture around today between the two high pressure systems to warrant isolated mention of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Forcing will be limited to old outflow boundaries and a developing lee trough in the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the higher elevations. but not much chance for the lower elevations so have left mention of VCTS out of each TAF site.
617 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Breezy south-southwesterly flow is expected across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front that will stall across central portions of the state. Can't rule out that a storm would be able to produce hail, but with freezing levels near 15K feet, it may be difficult for any hail to reach the surface. An unsettled pattern returns to the area Tuesday through the middle portion of the week, as upper ridge flattens and strong westerlies set up across North Dakota/northern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on precipitation/cloud coverage, but will generally lean toward cooler highs in the lower 80s across southwest Minnesota, to lower-mid 90s through the Missouri River Valley.
/issued 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ The upper-level ridge remains centered over the Central Plains with northerly flow aloft across the Mid-South.
This will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the inland areas than yesterday. High temperatures may only be in the low 90s in the interior valleys.
A cold front will continue to push south and east across the area today while a rigorous H5 wave passes overhead resulting in height falls. The mean H5 ridge over the area flattens to a fast quasi-zonal flow for this week. Aided by a long wave trough over Alberta, into southern Saskatchewan, a series of waves keep chances for thunderstorms in the forecast most days through the long range period. Cold front moving through central North Dakota at 6 AM CDT will move to eastern North Dakota during the afternoon hours.
A broad upper level trough and continuing weak low level onshore flow will keep Western Washington weather seasonably mild today.