Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
551 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DRAGGING A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEST THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WAS PRODUCING A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO INLAND NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/TSM DEVELOPMENT AS IT COMBINES WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE OF SEABREEZES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO SE GA.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DRAGGING A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEST THURSDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER TEXAS AND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BAHAMAS NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WHICH WILL ACT TO BLOCK UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH.
929 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE CSRA.
1055 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY.
808 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE CSRA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 854 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 A WK AND DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT WITH ONLY WK QG ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. AHEAD OF THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING AS MAIN PRECIP AREA SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CO AND NEW MEXICO.
830 AM PDT Thu Mar 12 2015 Strong high pressure will bring dry and warmer weather through Friday.
/Pelatti 12Z TAFS: An exiting upper level trough will trigger some -shra through mid-morning. Main impact of this departing trough will be some lingering clouds with bases dropping into the MVFR category (015-025)for PUW SFF COE and a smaller chance for GEG. Hard to determine how widespread these clouds are since there are higher clouds blocking the view. Once these clouds break up all sites will see VFR conditions as a strong upper level ridge returns.
714 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
731 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A TYPICALLY NICE SPRING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
-SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD DECKS ABOUT 10K FT AGL.
A MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 51 56 51 / 50 100 100 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 49 57 50 / 20 80 100 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 50 56 50 / 20 80 100 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 43 56 48 / 10 60 100 90.
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY. /ISSUED 205 AM PDT THU MAR 12 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOWS SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE LOWER KEYS TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WITH A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (1014 MB) IS DRAPED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1032 MB) IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST. AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST PRESSING SOUTHWARD FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ITS ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS ALOFT IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE W.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING /CAN BE SEEN WELL IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP/ WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS THIS WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN STRONGLY TODAY AND THEN OUT TOMORROW. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER. UP NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT. SUGGESTING THAT ENHANCED NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP PUSHING COOLER AIR S FROM NE TX AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER. WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER NAM/ECMWF BASED GUIDANCES FOR TEMPS EAST OF I-35.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST INTO ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE COLD CORE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH TOO FAST ON FRIDAY.
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRIDE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS PD. OTRWS KEPT W/PRIOR TEMPS WHICH REFLECT WARMER BIAS WEIGHTING VS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER SPLIT MOS BLEND AS MUCH OF SNOWPACK HAS MELTED OUT NOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE WHERE THEY ARE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST. WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MUCH COOLER THAN AREAS WEST OF MADISON. MEDIUM WARM DAY AHEAD WITH MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE LAID OUT ACROSS SRN WI WITH 925 TEMPS FROM 9C TO 12C.
947 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1257 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WINDS WILL ABATE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AS DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH SKIES INITIALLY CLEARING THIS EVENING AND WINDS TRENDING LIGHT. FOR FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MODERATING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 30S.
958 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
937 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A TYPICALLY NICE SPRING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1024 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH HIGH CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH. DRY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. AND THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE TRAVERSED WELL INTO THE CONUS.
630 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING LOOKING AT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FORCE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1250 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH HIGH CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH. DRY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
LATER TONIGHT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES AS MANY SPOTS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 20S. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL VERY HAZARDOUS FOR ANY SPRING VEGETATION THAT MAY BE EXPOSED TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BREEZY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT RAIN IS ON DECK AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
thus the high wind warning has been allowed to expire.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE REGION FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
DUE TO THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEAST. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS OVER SEMO CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
DESPITE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER MINIMUMS MON NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00 UTC.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
1014 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING.
1149 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND HOVER NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING MOST COMPACT OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO NE FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS /SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
750 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS. THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL SK WITH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WY. WHICH WAS STARTING TO CUT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PER WATER VAPOUR MATINEE. 100-250J/KG SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EVEN WITH TD/S 25-35F RANGE. COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/BEHIND COLD FRONT. 200-400J/KG SBCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOR HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST LEAVING BEHIND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DRY WEATHER.
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
DESPITE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER MINIMUMS MON NIGHT. -HOWERTON PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/ LOWS THIS MORNING DOWN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HARD FREEZE FELT ACROSS THE MID STATE. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH SOME CHANNEL FLOW IS EVIDENT THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY NOSING DOWN THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ON BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY AND EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
917 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
A cold front, currently located across southern Oklahoma and the Panhandle, will push southward today through the Big Country and reach the Concho Valley late this evening. By tonight, a strong upper-level trough moving through the Desert Southwest will approach far west Texas.
511 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 A cold front has shifted through the area early this morning ushering in modest CAA.
507 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 Upper trof rotating across the Great Lakes, with flattening ridge off the west coast, will keep west to northwest flow over the region through mid week. This will result in generally warmer and windy conditions with the potential for a few afternoon showers. Well mixed airmass will bring warmer temperatures and windy conditions today. Another weak wave slides through the flow on Tuesday, lifting a warm front across the region on Tuesday with the chance for rain or snow.
410 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma and will continue to push southeast across the forecast area today. The models are now in relatively good agreement on the track and timing of the mid week upper low that will move across Texas.
Ahead of this wave, a warm front will move from west to east across the state, leading to warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs in the upper 30s east to the mid 40s across portions of the west. Behind the warm front, winds will shift from the southwest to the west northwest, becoming breezy.
Cold front has moved through the dvn cwa and a few showers that grazed our far se counties have already pushed well to our east. Cooler but quiet in the short term.
409 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Zonal flow aloft in place over region along with SE surface flow associated with high pressure centered off Eastern Seaboard.
MVFR ceilings will continue to spread across the CWA this morning while a cold front moves southeast through the region. /Issued 410 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020/ A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma and will continue to push southeast across the forecast area today. The models are now in relatively good agreement on the track and timing of the mid week upper low that will move across Texas.
421 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Temperatures are quite a bit warmer this morning compared to this time yesterday, owing to the change in wind direction from the northeast to the southeast. Key West radar on the other hand is largely echo-free with just a few sprinkles along a remnant Cuban land breeze to the southwest of the Lower Keys.
313 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Cold front has moved through the dvn cwa and a few showers that grazed our far se counties have already pushed well to our east. Cooler but quiet in the short term.
355 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Early this morning, stratus is gradually departing to the east as a longwave trough aloft progresses east from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Stratus has been slower to depart than previously expected, keeping temperatures warmer over southwest MN and northwest IA. Cooler air and breezy conditions linger in the region today and tonight as another longwave trough aloft transverses through the region. As the aforementioned front progresses through the region this evening, cannot completely rule out sprinkles or flurries, but model soundings indicate this front is unlikely to be able to saturate the lower levels. Strong daytime mixing will yield warmer daytime high temperatures and stronger gusty winds.
This upper jet streak will lift north through the Midsouth today, as a surface cold front and attendant frontal wave drop into northeast AR. 5 C/km) will overspread the low level instability axis, supportive of large hail. Storms should lift into AL early in the overnight, as a broad northern branch trof edges into the mid-MS and OH River valleys.
Temperatures as of 9 am are already in the mid to upper 60s, which is about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday morning at this time.
243 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 Current surface map places trof/warm front across eastern Montana/Wyoming. South-southwest winds across the forecast area become westerly as trof moves into the central Dakotas.
Westerly winds will bring decent mixing of warmer air aloft, especially over central SD. Blended in some of the warmer guidance for high temps for both today and Tuesday.
530 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 A cold front will slowly track through southeast Michigan this morning, with showers over southern TAF sites coming to an end. Southeast Michigan positioned early this morning within a mild and steadily moistening low level environment, immediately downstream of an inbound weak cold frontal boundary now elongated from near Mt Pleasant to the southern base of Lake Michigan. A drier and slightly cooler post- frontal air mass will then mark conditions for the afternoon period.
Patchy freezing fog is possible in some valley locations this morning, otherwise partly to mostly sunny today with temperatures running a little below normal, mainly in the 40 this afternoon.
520 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Showers will come to an end across east-central Illinois this morning as a cold front passes through the region. 08z/2am surface analysis shows a cold front just east of I-55. A wave of low pressure will track along the departing frontal boundary tonight, temporarily slowing its southward progress and spreading light rain back northward into parts of south-central Illinois. Once the low tracks into the Ohio River Valley, it will pull the front southward and bring an end to the rain chances across the far SE CWA by early Tuesday morning. Skies will become mostly sunny with highs topping out in the lower to middle 50s.
444 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 The morning surface analysis shows a high pressure has pushed well east of the Ohio Valley and a cold front is pushing into the Midwest. However we will see the frontal boundary push southeast toward Kentucky tonight and a wave of low pressure will develop along this boundary near the Ozarks pushing northeast as it does. This wave will push northeast and the cold front will push southeast, as the larger upper level trough axis pushes into the Great Lakes. A modest cold front will be departing southeast of the region on Tuesday night, with drier air arriving behind it with decreasing clouds.
A cold front and an area of low pressure will keep rain chances in the forecast into Tuesday. A cold front was back across central Illinois. By 12Z the focus for rain will be across the eastern two-thirds of the area where an upper wave will be enhancing the lift ahead of the cold front. The cold front will continue to slowly move southeast through the area today. Tonight, another upper trough will approach the area from the northwest. The low will move northeast along the front and bring more chances for rain to the area.
Surface winds will be much lighter out of the southeast as a weak cold front across North Texas weakens the pressure gradient out ahead of it. Winds may be gusty at times in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, but will be much lower compared to yesterday. Given that geopotential heights increase just slightly from yesterday, have leaned closer to persistence, with highs reaching into the lower 90s west of Interstate 69 C.
813 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Showers return today with warmer temperatures.
506 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Southerly flow will increase moisture across the region today with as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
Banding will weaken shortly after sunrise this morning as a low pressure system spinning off the southern Californian coast moves inland, and the baroclinic zone drops southward. The California closed low will swing south of the Mexican border today, keeping additional moisture well to our south. Cooler air filtering in behind this system will lower high temperatures this afternoon, though temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday as we fall under dry, northwest flow.
621 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 The morning surface analysis shows a high pressure has pushed well east of the Ohio Valley and a cold front is pushing into the Midwest. However we will see the frontal boundary push southeast toward Kentucky tonight and a wave of low pressure will develop along this boundary near the Ozarks pushing northeast as it does. This wave will push northeast and the cold front will push southeast, as the larger upper level trough axis pushes into the Great Lakes. A modest cold front will be departing southeast of the region on Tuesday night, with drier air arriving behind it with decreasing clouds.
617 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Southerly flow will increase moisture across the region today with as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
A weak positive tilt upper trough extending from MN, southwest across the central high Plains will fill as it moves east across KS. A amplified upper level low off the northwest Mexican coast will dig southeast into north central Mexico Tonight. An amplified northern stream upper trough will dig southeast out of south central Canada into the upper Midwest. Northeast winds and cloud cover during the morning hours will only allow afternoon highs to reach the lower to mid 50s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s.
/Today through Tuesday/ Flow aloft will remain zonal today ahead of a closed low that continues to dig southeastward along the California coastline toward the northern Baja region of Mexico. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front moving into to region late this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. However, the closed low across Southern California/Northern Baja Mexico will continue to dig ESE on its way towards our region. Lows tonight/Tuesday morning will range from the upper 40s in the north behind the front, to the lower 60s across Deep East Texas and adjacent Central Louisiana in areas ahead of the frontal boundary. Above normal temps to remain on Tuesday, but afternoon highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler in the post frontal airmass.