Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Atlantic ridge will begin to take control of Keys weather and gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes and a more normal distribution of showers and thunderstorms will prevail.
Lows will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south.
With the heaviest rainfall focused east of the low pressure center, Middle TN looks to escape the bulk of Fred's effects.
1002 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Latest surface analysis is showing a stationary front across northern Arkansas into Kentucky with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Beyond Monday, moderating temperatures for the rest of the extended as well as a more active weather pattern as the upper level trough deepens over the Central Plains. Will have several rounds of showers and storms through mid week before the trough lifts northeast of region.
342 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure in place today with seasonable temperatures and no precipitation. Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure in place. Tonight, strengthening WAA thickens the upper level clouds keeping overnight lows warmer, as well as preventing valley fog formation. Even though a much warmer airmass will be in place Monday, thick cloud cover prevents much of the solar heating with highs once again only getting into the mid to upper 70s. Upper level ridge of high pressure remains nearly stagnant over the Atlantic as a trough slowly pushes into the central CONUS.
/Issued 659 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021/ A weak trough of low pressure aloft is sliding slowly southeast across the region this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are occurring with daytime heating along and to the southeast of the trough axis. Coverage should decrease with the loss of daytime heating, though some low end shower and storm potential will persist into tonight in advance of the trough axis across west central AR into southeast OK. Small chance pops will remain possible overnight tonight across mainly Southeast Oklahoma in relation to the boundary in Northern Texas and a weak upper level trof axis holding over the region. The weak upper level trof axis is forecast to remain over the region Sunday which could again allow for some isolated to scattered convection to be possible during the day.
245 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A cold front will cross the area tonight, then stall over the Carolinas Sunday and Monday. Several waves of low pressure will move along this boundary, resulting in unsettled weather conditions through mid week. Cold front situated just N of the FA. Cooler as the high to the north keeps an onshore flow going thru the period. Ridge aloft will remain over the Southeast U.
Warmer temperatures with less cloud cover and precipitation.
1256 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Cooler and less humid air will remain in place today as clouds increase from the south. Increasing moisture ahead of Plains low pressure will bring a chance of rain to the region through much of the upcoming week. High pressure will drift across the eastern Great Lakes and over upstate New York today.
The short wave trough and potential upper level low that the GFS and Canadian were previously showing coming up across the region by the middle of the week has been shifted well south of the area with the 15.
332 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows sprawling high pressure over the northeastern quadrant of the lower 48 states with a weak north-south oriented surface boundary developing over the eastern Dakotas. The slight shift eastward of the western CONUS ridge and continued warm air advection processes will make for another warm day across the area. Highs will run from the lower 80s in western WI and SE MN to around 90 in western MN. Highs on Monday will be very similar to today, again ranging from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
1054 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A low-amplitude ridge is positioned over the Intermountain West this weekend, with temperatures running about 5 degrees above normal.
234 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A cold front will slip south of the commonwealth overnight, bring clearing skies from north to south. Temperatures are on track to bottom out from the upper 40s in the normally cooler northern valleys, to the mid 60s across the mostly cloudy Lower Susq Valley. Have used the slightly cooler Superblend max temps based on NBM warm bias in easterly flow scenarios. Min temps should range from the upper 50s along the northern tier, to the mid 60s over the Lower Susq Valley. High pressure will persist over the western Atlantic for much of the upcoming week, helping to maintain a moist southerly flow into central PA.
As the ridge continues to break down, expect this type of activity to continue through this afternoon and into the evening.
1048 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A high pressure system slowly moves east bringing dry conditions and light winds.
238 AM MDT Sun Aug 15 2021 An upper high will retrograde westward into the Great Basin/California area today with light to modest northwest flow aloft. Due to the increased coverage and earlier start of convection, most locations will be cooler than yesterday, but still above average. On Monday, the upper ridge begins to flatten out as a trough pulls into southwest British Columbia.
1113 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front continues to push south through the region into this evening. High pressure then builds across the Northeast through the rest of the weekend.
930 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Strong upper level high pressure over the northern California and Nevada will bring hot days to Southern California the next two days. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the High Deserts through 8 PM Monday.
353 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Cooler and less humid air will remain in place today as clouds increase from the south. Increasing moisture ahead of Plains low pressure will bring a chance of rain to the region through much of the upcoming week. High pressure will drift across the eastern Great Lakes and over upstate New York today.
With broad upper ridging over the western CONUS, upper- level smoke is drifting into northeastern WY and western SD. Surface map shows low pressure to the east, resulting in southerly winds across the CWA - breezy over south central SD. With the nose of the low-level jet pushing into south central SD, storms will be possible in the presence of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
1145 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will remain centered over Lower Michigan tonight and Sunday, sustaining light winds and mainly clear skies. Pleasant warm day today with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, low humidity and plenty of sunshine from high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. These conditions will persist through most of Monday with night time lows in the 50s as this high pressure slowly moves to the east. Moisture will slowly begin advecting northward Monday on the back side of the high with a pocket of deeper moisture and showers lifting northward across Ohio possibly clipping the southeastern corner of the Michigan Monday evening and eastern portions Monday night.
As the ridge axis approaches late this afternoon, we could see a return of mid to upper level smoke to the region.
1125 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Cooler and drier air will enter the region tonight into Sunday. High pressure builds in Sunday lasting into midweek with fair weather along with comfortable humidity levels and temperatures in the 70s to 80s.
243 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Upper level ridge remains across the Great Basin early this morning with the eastern extent of its influence just to the west of the forecast area. Much drier air at the low to mid layers of the atmosphere continues to move southward across the region.
Models show an upper level trof just west of our region deepening a little overnight. However, with a well defined surface feature along with the upper trof to our west, chances will be much better and will spread northwest across the entire PAH forecast area by late Monday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be near seasonal in the 60s, with high temperatures Sunday a little below normal in the lower to middle 80s.
Dry wx expected to prevail this period as sfc ridging remains entrenched across the Great Lakes. Nevertheless slow ramp in low level theta-e ridging collocated with expansive moisture aloft will yield diurnally favored sct showers by Tue aftn east half and much of the area Wed given incorporating remnants of TS Fred. Thereafter weak trough aloft meanders ewd across MI with perhaps a few mainly diurnally driven aftn showers ahead of a larger scale nrn stream based upper trough shifting out of the nrn plains late week. Otherwise seasonably warm temps through the week as humidity returns High pressure over the region will bring continued VFR conditions through the period with little more than some thin cirrus at KFWA and maybe some diurnally driven fair weather cu during the afternoon.
245 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Weak upper trough axis will remain over the area for the next few days with at least low shower/thunderstorm chances.
303 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A broad ridge of high pressure to the east and a slow moving upper level trough to the west will provide the area with multiple days in a row of similar weather.
136 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure will build over NY and PA through Sunday, bringing plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. High pressure will be over the region through most of Monday. However, with the high sliding off the coast moisture will start to be advected into the region. This coupled with a mid level trough across the eastern Great Lakes may be just enough for a few showers later in the day. Given sunshine should hold on for most of the day in the region, opted to go a few degrees higher than the blended model guidance with most locations getting into the low 80's. Temperatures Monday night only fall into the low and mid 60's with more moisture and clouds around.
Discussion: High pressure is over the Ohio River Valley today. Weak high pressure is over the Southeast.
No significant weather is expected over the next 24 hours thanks to high pressure in place. Low temperatures will be well into the 50s for most followed by highs in the low 80s and low humidity. High pressure will shift east on Monday in response to a progressive jet stream through Canada.
337 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and sern U. this morning with a trough in New England and a weak trough trailing into the upper Great Lakes. The ridge moves into the Rockies and a weak trough moves into the Mississippi River valley. Quiet and warm weather is expected through mid-week with southerly flow with ridging over eastern U.
With similar values anticipated throughout the period, and the BRO CWFA likely to remain on the far edge of 500 mb high pressure, daytime isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
351 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure builds across the northeast through Monday, then slowly moves offshore Monday night.
A strong area of high pressure centered over northwest Nevada will lead to above normal temperatures through Monday.
1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 At mid afternoon the cold front had slipped into northern Arkansas as northeast winds in its wake have been advecting in drier and more comfortable air. High pressure was centered over the western Great Lakes and this will continue to bring northeast winds and drier air into the region through Sunday.
241 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A ridge of high pressure continues to remain in place over the western half of the CONUS, which has left our portion of the country in predominantly NW flow aloft as flow closer to the surface stays nearly calm into the morning hours. As the day starts, we can expect lows in the lower 60s and into the upper 50s farther up north.
Have used between the 75-90th percentiles for this area for both today and Monday, as each passing day should be warmer than the previous given more anomalously warm temperatures developing aloft (upper-ridge continues dominating the region).
A lead disturbance, one which proceeds a larger disturbance or low pressure trough, is forecast by all global and high resolution models to propagate across the Northern Rockies very early Monday morning. The larger upper level trough will begin to dig into the Pacific Northwest Monday afternoon, which should help improve air quality while also helping to enhance instability across SW Montana.
627 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A weak high pressure center in the Upper midwest is keeping weak ridging in the region. As such, kept POPs on the low side to compensate.
Though areas near the stationary front will have the highest chances of experiencing some thunderstorms, there will be a chance anywhere across the region. Afternoon high temperatures today and on Monday will be slightly cooler than yesterday thanks to increased cloud cover with highs in the low to mid 90s across the area.
Dry wx expected to prevail this period as sfc ridging remains entrenched across the Great Lakes. Nevertheless slow ramp in low level theta-e ridging collocated with expansive moisture aloft will yield diurnally favored sct showers by Tue aftn east half and much of the area Wed given incorporating remnants of TS Fred. Thereafter weak trough aloft meanders ewd across MI with perhaps a few mainly diurnally driven aftn showers ahead of a larger scale nrn stream based upper trough shifting out of the nrn plains late week.
622 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and sern U. this morning with a trough in New England and a weak trough trailing into the upper Great Lakes. The ridge moves into the Rockies and a weak trough moves into the Mississippi River valley. Quiet and warm weather is expected through mid-week with southerly flow with ridging over eastern U.
upper ridge continues to extend influence into the Northern High Plains. The strongest winds are still expected on Monday as a cold front approaches. The bottom line here is that by Monday there may begin to be some cumulative effects from the heat, even where summer in general has been warmer than average to begin with. An upper trough pattern looks to set up for the middle of the week with cooler and more unsettled conditions appearing more probable.
827 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Cooler and less humid air will remain in place today as clouds increase from the south. Increasing moisture ahead of Plains low pressure will bring a chance of rain to the region through much of the upcoming week.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary in the Plains. Pleasant conditions will continue today and tonight as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Upper level trof is expected to move out of the area leading to more SW flow for our area. A trof digs into the western CONUS to start the week. This trof is expected to move across our area later in the week.
/Issued 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/ Weak upper trough axis will remain over the area for the next few days with at least low shower/thunderstorm chances.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 715 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Troughing aloft will remain in place the next two to three days.
Current surface analysis places high over the Great Lakes with trough dipping through Manitoba into southern Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western CONUS, with a few subtle waves pushing through. With the ridge being the dominating feature over the area, hot temperatures will remain. We should be even warmer than yesterday given the ridge will be positioned a little further east. Another hot day on Monday with most locations pushing into the triple digits for highs as ridge passes over.
Return southerly flow on the western peripheral of the ridge will then begin to draw up moisture with increasing cloud coverage overnight.
A lead vort max embedded within mid/upper troughing over the Midwest and southern Plains will begin lifting northeast overnight, from southern MO to the Great Lakes by Monday morning. The rest of the upcoming workweek looks even more interesting from a weather standpoint as a large trough moves in across the northwestern CONUS and pushes a front our way, all while tropical cyclone Grace moves towards the Gulf. Between these features, the subtropical ridge is progged to build west over the southern CONUS and northern Gulf. Despite that uncertainty, deep moisture flux will be strong on the west side of the building ridge with a large plume of very moisture rich air progged to overspread the state by mid-week.
Cooler temperatures were across our area early this morning with little if any cloudiness and light winds. There may be steam fog early this morning in some of the river valleys due to the cooler temperatures over the warm river water. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a degree or two cooler, and about 5 degrees below normal for mid August.
554 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure will remain overhead today while becoming centered just east of the area. Increase in southwest flow under the large scale deformation eventually allows Gulf Moisture to be drawn northward contributing to what will become a dirty ridge. High pressure gradually drifts eastward throughout the day, continuing to bring dry weather to the central Great Lakes for the remainder of the weekend. Weak surface gradient limits winds to below 15 kts, while southerly winds prevail on the back side of the high pressure center.
/issued 243 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/ Upper level ridge remains across the Great Basin early this morning with the eastern extent of its influence just to the west of the forecast area. Much drier air at the low to mid layers of the atmosphere continues to move southward across the region.
1041 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure builds across the northeast through Monday, then slowly moves offshore Monday night.
Upper air plots last night depicted a reflection of the inverted trof moving west across the area. Monday: Still looking like a rim shot event with storms propagating into the lower deserts.
Northwest flow aloft persists over the region today with a trough over southeastern Nebraska.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 85 71 81 / 70 80 60 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 86 69 81 / 60 60 60 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 84 69 80 / 60 60 60 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 84 67 80 / 60 60 60 40 60.
526 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A ridge of high pressure continues to remain in place over the western half of the CONUS, which has left our portion of the country in predominantly NW flow aloft as flow closer to the surface stays nearly calm into the morning hours. As the day starts, we can expect lows in the lower 60s and into the upper 50s farther up north.
621 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure builds across the northeast through Monday, then slowly moves offshore Monday night.
724 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure builds across the northeast through Monday, then slowly moves offshore Monday night.
607 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A broad ridge of high pressure to the east and a slow moving upper level trough to the west will provide the area with multiple days in a row of similar weather.
Aloft, an upper trof extending from Michigan south to the central gulf coast will provide upper level support for enhanced convection this afternoon within a very moist (2.
The combination of northeast low level flow and a fair amount of clouds across much of the area, will help keep temperatures on the cooler side with afternoon highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s. Lows will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Models continue to saturate the low levels, so will allow for MVFR ceilings to develop late along with some MVFR visibilities in showers.
At 00Z, the upper high was located over Reno, NV at close to 600dam at 500m. A ridge axis will pivot south across our area today, bringing some warming, although much of our southern area will remain 5-10 degrees below normal. Daytime temperatures will reach normal across far northern NM, where increased instability relative to yesterday will yield a more robust round of convection with improved shear profiles given light southerly flow in the lower boundary layer and developing northerly flow aloft.
451 AM MDT Sun Aug 15 2021 An upper high will retrograde westward into the Great Basin/California area today with light to modest northwest flow aloft. Due to the increased coverage and earlier start of convection, most locations will be cooler than yesterday, but still above average. On Monday, the upper ridge begins to flatten out as a trough pulls into southwest British Columbia.
442 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Current surface analysis places high over the Great Lakes with trough dipping through Manitoba into southern Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western CONUS, with a few subtle waves pushing through. With the ridge being the dominating feature over the area, hot temperatures will remain. We should be even warmer than yesterday given the ridge will be positioned a little further east. Another hot day on Monday with most locations pushing into the triple digits for highs as ridge passes over.
Early this morning, the cold front has pushed into central Arkansas with a high pressure center over northern Illinois leading to pleasant conditions this morning across the area as lows bottom out in the upper 50s over the eastern Ozarks and low to mid 60s over the remainder of the CWA. The aforementioned high pressure will also keep the weather dry and quiet for today and tonight with mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the low to mid 80s this afternoon and similar low temperatures tonight to what we will experience this morning.
DDV (Issued 330 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021) Today through Monday: High pressure over lower Michigan will slowly move to the east today into Monday.
Lows will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Models continue to saturate the low levels, so will allow for MVFR ceilings to develop late along with some MVFR visibilities in showers.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR/ Troughing aloft will remain in place the next two to three days.
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure over upstate New York this afternoon will move off the New England coast Monday. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure will lift northward across the Ohio Valley the next few days.
Most of the Midsouth has warmed into the low to middle 80s.
Low/mid cloud deck continues to stream northward along and east of I-57 this afternoon as weak low pressure lifts north into Kentucky. The sprawling high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to keep much of the forecast area dry into Monday. A broad upper trough will hang around the Mississippi Valley the next few days, as an upper low digs into the the Pacific Northwest. With time, the trough will shift more toward the Great Lakes.
Dry wx expected to prevail this period as sfc ridging remains entrenched across the Great Lakes. Nevertheless slow ramp in low level theta-e ridging collocated with expansive moisture aloft will yield diurnally favored sct showers by Tue aftn east half and much of the area Wed given incorporating remnants of TS Fred. Thereafter weak trough aloft meanders ewd across MI with perhaps a few mainly diurnally driven aftn showers ahead of a larger scale nrn stream based upper trough shifting out of the nrn plains late week. Otherwise seasonably warm temps through the week as humidity returns High pressure keeps us dry through the afternoon and into the evening. Then, the stalled cold front from last week moves back north as a warm front later tonight into Monday allowing for an increase in cloud cover.
This will support increasing chances of convection throughout the rest of the day, especially over the higher elevation areas, and chances will stay elevated enough to make it possible for an isolated storm even for the overnight.
High temperatures will remain a bit below normal in the low to mid 80s. Dry and mild Monday night with lows in the low to mid 60s.