Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This area has some of the highest dewpoints so it will not take much cooling to reach saturation. The plains will be capped through the afternoon with the highest CAPES of 2000+ j/kg over the plains east of a Weld to Elbert county line. Some models are hinting at a Denver cyclone developing that would provide storm initiation near the Palmer Divide with possible storms spinning off in the vicinity of area airports. By late Friday evening subsidence will move in stabilizing the region as upper level ridging increases. Temperatures on Friday will once again reach into the lower 90s with 60s and 70s expected in the higher terrain. Upper ridge passes over Colorado this weekend.
High pressure and relatively drier air for this time of year continues to dominate the region with the 12z sounding indicating a PWAT just under one and one half inch with drier air dominating in the mid-levels.
1230 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 After the last night storms system exited the region this morning, short wave ridging moved over the region. Strong southerly winds were helping to keep some of the low level moisture from pooling across the region but also was aiding in bringing additional Gulf moisture into the region. One thing that will aid as a focusing mechanism overnight, will be a cold front that will also begin to move towards the region.
A strong Pacific trough will dominate the weather pattern through weekend.
Mid level ridging over the Gulf shifts back to the west across the region today, which will help to bring a few breaks in the cloudiness by the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 50s along the beaches with lingering clouds.
A cold front is moving into the coastal waters this morning. Warm air advection ahead of this front has brought temperatures across the Cascades and northern Klamath County above freezing at many locations, but there are still pockets of below freezing temperatures near Chiloquin. Moreover many locations continue to be quite dry and the wet bulb effect could drop surface temperatures below freezing briefly this morning. This is where we could see weather impacts this morning as temperatures at both Lakeview and Alturas are still below freezing. Forecast soundings for these areas shows warm air aloft and cold subfreezing layer near the ground. Models have shown this subfreezing layer to be quite shallow but confidence in the exact profile is not very high. High pressure will then move into the area with dry weather expected Wednesday.
Winds will likely relax prior to sunrise and expect abnormally warm temps just east of the mtns will cool down a bit, but overall temps will warm up later today to more climatological values, and expect highs in the low 50s just east of the mtns. The cold air along the lower ark rvr valley east of KLHX will likely remain in place and only expect 40s this region. On the plains, a cold front moves south during the afternoon with winds picking up from the north and temperatures dropping a few degrees.
Winds then decrease late tonight as a cold front moves south over the area with less wind for Weds.
If winds remain breezy, then highs will be warmer than projected. While the NAM is suggesting peak wind gusts near 50 knots, the low level lapse rates are not very high. The models and GEFS ensembles continue to be in disagreement with the Christmas weekend low pressure system affecting the region. The GFS has been inconsistent so far with the track, timing, and strength of the low pressure system but continues to be the quickest. With a farther west track, warmer air would likely surge up into our eastern cwa from this system. The latest wet bulb zero heights shown by the Canadian, EC, and GFS show the possibility of all liquid/freezing rain/rain or a mix of precipitation lifting into the eastern cwa.
Although the high pressure ridge remains over the area early this morning, air mass has moderated quicker than expected. Ridge of high pressure will stay over the coastal plains today but went with highs slightly above guidance for today. Winds will be light tonight as the high pressure ridge pushes into the coastal waters. Warming trend will continue on Wednesday as the ridge moves to the east.
/Today through Tonight/ A low pressure system will pass across the Northern Plains and Northern portions of the Upper Midwest today. Models had been gradually suggesting a more Northerly track to this low.
High pressure will otherwise extend across our region through Wednesday night. High pressure will remain situated over the Carolinas this period, with associated dry conditions and near to slightly above average temperatures in the middle 50s and lower to middle 30s.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a broad but shallow upper-level trough across the CONUS, with rising 500mb heights in most places.
A dying weather front will bring in precipitation to the area this morning, with the highest precipitation potential near the Oregon border.
644 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Aviation A fast moving low pressure system will track through the Northern Great Lakes Region today. Yet another low pressure system heads our way on Wednesday with some light snow expected.
Across the region this morning, water vapor imagery depicts a split level flow pattern with the southern jet streaming moisture eastward ahead of an upper low off the Baja California coastline. Further south, more snow cover and weaker winds aloft result in cooler temps with readings generally around 40 degrees. Lows tonight are a few degrees warmer under clear skies with readings in the lower 20s.
/Issued 251 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016/ The combination of some locations reaching the freezing mark with lingering low level moisture capped by a stratus deck in portions of north GA is posing a threat of patchy freezing fog. particularly in the valleys of the higher elevations. Otherwise any lingering drizzle in parts of Central GA should diminish by sunrise and expecting a dry fcst through Wednesday as we stay under zonal flow aloft and the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure. Temps should moderate back to near normal today with highs in the low to mid 50s for most areas.
901 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will exit to the east today while a warm front moves north of the region. Weak low pressure will slide to our north on Wednesday.
One change will be with the low level westerly flow overrunning the northerly surface flow, with the low level flow becoming northwesterly during the day. With a fair amount of uncertainty, have gone with afternoon highs rising just to the lower to mid 50s after a cold start in the 30s early this morning. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows ranging from the lower/mid 30s well inland to the lower 40s close to the coast.
Satellite imagery showed some weak mid level short wave energy overriding the low level isentropic lift from the WSW. which was enhancing some vertical growth in the low stratus and drizzle swath across SE GA and NE FL and thus creating some discrete showers. then the gradient will relax late this afternoon into the evening as the ridge center settles farther south.
The large scale pattern will feature small 500 hPa height rises over western and north central NEB today as a ridge builds over the Northern Plains-Upper Mississippi Valley this evening while a positive PV anomaly tracks eastward across the northern Great Lakes. The region will see modest warm advection in the low- levels this afternoon with 850 hPa temperatures increasing to about 5 C over KLBF at 00 UTC after 850 hPa winds shift from northwesterly this morning to southwesterly by the early afternoon.
A few high clouds today as large closed low off the Baja coast continues to draw mid and upper level moisture across the desert southwest. Southerly winds will advect warmer air into the region today and we should see afternoon highs climb into the 40s to near 50. Even warmer temperatures by Wednesday as thermal ridge axis positions itself across the Southern Plains ahead of the next cold front that is progged to slide through late Wednesday afternoon.
540 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 Some gentle ridging will continue to build into the region which will allow WWA to continue.
There is a loss of ice crystals as the system departs, but there is not enough omega to support the mention of freezing drizzle. Meanwhile a trough will deepen along the west coast and emerge from the desert southwest. This will lead to a very powerful synoptic cyclone over the central Conus.
This trough is doing a very good job of scouring out the Arctic air, as temperature are warmer behind the trough with the better mixing on the backside.
944 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will control the region's weather through Wednesday.
A cold front will enter northern Utah this evening, then move south into central Utah tonight into Wednesday.
After a cold start with early morning wind chills in the single digits, highs will climb above freezing with readings ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. A dry cold front will swing across the region later in the day Wednesday ushering in a cooler but not drastically colder airmass.
Have received over the last few minutes through media and other sources of patchy freezing fog formation. Also locations to the north of the mid state and south of the mid state are experiencing patchy freezing fog formation. Thus, in agreement with surrounding offices, have updated the suite of forecast products thru the mid morning hours to reflect patchy freezing fog formation.
536 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Ample moisture over-running a cold ridge of high pressure will persist through today. Drier high pressure will continue to build into the Carolinas by later tonight and Wednesday.
/issued 311 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016/ Water vapor shows a deep upper low w of Baja Calif with westerly flow aloft across W TX. The next cold front is scheduled to arrive before midnight Thur and will bring an abrupt end to the above normal temps. Highs will mostly be in the 40s, it could be cooler though where/if precip occurs. The upper low w of Baja will lift and fill passing to the n on Fri and the assocd increased sw-w low level winds will serve to warm temps close to normal and even moreso on Christmas Eve. There is the potential for windy/very windy and cooler conditions Christmas Day as the trof passes to the n.
A pressure ridge extending through the Ohio River Valley today will be in the forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Fortunately, air temperatures have crept above freezing for most of the region and freezing fog is no longer a concern.
542 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 For the 12Z TAFs, a very weak cold front will move across the TAF sites this morning with north winds in its wake. These north winds will be short lived as southwest winds are expected to resume after sunset this evening as a sfc trof of low pressure develops along the ern slopes of the srn Rockies.
629 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
525 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 Current water vapor showing a vigorous mid-level trough moving through Manitoba and the Dakotas with our area under veil of mid/high cloud in warm air advection/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave. With our area staying in the warm sector and ample sunshine, look for highs in the lower to middle 30s. Attention then turns to another low pressure system moving through Canada with a warm front passing through our area. Will have to keep an eye on the slight possibility of some freezing drizzle on the backside of the snow band this afternoon/evening up across that area with loss of cloud ice.
Lows tonight will be seasonable cool in the low to mid 20s. As high pressure influences build in from the southern plains, lows will drop again into the mid 20s on Thu night. An upper level high pressure center will build across Florida as several disturbances drop into the southwest states, then eject east northeastward.
Brisk southwest to west winds will bring milder air into the region, with high temperatures warming into the lower 30s. On Wednesday, the LFQ of a 130 kt upper jet and a potent short- wave trof will affect the region in the late morning and afternoon.
Marginal to poor boating conditions as a moderate to fresh northerly wind surge works its way down the coast behind a cold front over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region.
738 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will exit to the east today while a warm front moves north of the region. Weak low pressure will slide to our north on Wednesday.
1019 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
High pressure remains seated over the state early this morning, but will pull away to the east today and tonight and allow weak southerly surface winds to return to the area.
High pressure covers much of the eastern half of the U. High pressure will remain in control for the next couple of days. This will help produce warmer temperatures by this afternoon with highs today mainly in the 40s.
The low clouds dominate with the fog generally limited. Cooler and slightly drier air filters in behind the front with highs from the mid 60s to upper 70s from Tampa Bay northward.
Dry weather will continue Tuesday as weak high pressure builds over Arizona with cold overnight lows across much of the high country. Dry conditions with high clouds will occur for the next few days as a closed low spins off the waters of Baja California.
1007 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure through Wednesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 27 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 26 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 25 52 30 / 0 0 0 10.
955 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Cloudy and cool conditions will prevail today as moisture runs over a cold ridge of high pressure.
Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer today, but still below average for this time of year. Weak mid and upper-level ridging will boost temperatures to near normal lower 60s on Wednesday.
Arctic high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift to Appalachia late this morning as a weak low pressure system slides east across Ontario.
With temperatures in the teens, any patchy fog could result in some slick spots on roadways and bridges. Clear skies prevailed early this morning across southern Indiana and central Kentucky as a surface analysis revealed an elongated area of high pressure stretched from New England through the Ohio Valley and back toward Texas. For today, expect plenty of sunshine as the high pressure slips southward toward Alabama and Georgia.
/issued 533 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016/ High pressure to shift east allowing for light south to southeast winds to return to the region.
First, we changed the high wind warning around Grangeville and the Camas Prairie issued yesterday to a winter storm warning this morning.
352 AM PST Tue Dec 20 2016 Dry offshore flow will weaken today with warmer high temperatures for most areas.
A weak cold front will move across approximately the northwest 1/3 of Oklahoma today, before dissipating.
734 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure controls regional conditions.
Rua This looks like it will be the last night/morning that possible freezing temperatures will be an issue for awhile.
308 AM MST Tue Dec 20 2016 Northwest flow aloft continues this morning across the northern plains with weak ridging centered over the northern Rockies pushing eastward. A weak but fast moving cold front will cross the Dakotas tonight with W/NW winds increasing quickly behind the boundary. Strong trof moves through the Rockies and into the Plains for the weekend. ECMWF closes off upper low over central South Dakota while GFS brings through an open wave. While GFS has trended drier and warmer from earlier runs, several GEFS members support the idea of ECMWF but differ in timing/location of upper low cutting off. QPF from GFS is at the low end of GEFS members.
thus going with highs above freezing throughout the forecast area, with readings reaching the lower 40s through the Missouri River Valley. A cold front will swing across the area early on Wednesday, with only weak cold air advection behind the front.
936 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure controls regional conditions.
533 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure to shift east allowing for light south to southeast winds to return to the region.
/issued 351 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016/ A cut-off upper low well off to the west of the Baja Peninsula is sending a slug of moisture northward into the desert southwest. At the surface, a weak cold front located from northeast New Mexico into western Kansas will slide through the forecast area, swinging winds around from west to north. The area warmed more quickly yesterday than guidance indicated so we will favor the warmer guidance today - which will give us afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Today's system is a tricky one due to warming aloft ahead of tonight's cold frontal passage. Other areas as far north as a Burns-Boise line could see areas of freezing rain and sleet as the surface remains cold and the temperatures warm above freezing aloft. Winter weather advisories continue for the Upper and Lower Treasure Valleys as the ground remains cold, with snow and possible sleet and freezing rain by midday today. Cold front expected to pass through the region late today, quickly drying out and cooling 5-10 degrees in its wake.
Winds from the west will advect warmer air into the area through the day as well. Locations south of the Tennessee River and west of I-65 will be the warmest, with highs in the lower 50s.
618 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure through Wednesday.
The dry easterly flow will continue through mid week as as ridge gradually weakens allowing weak frontal boundary over the panhandle of FL to move further south.
At the surface, a weak trough axis associated with that upper level wave to the north is making its way east, doing little else other than bringing a more west-northwest component to the winds. Temperatures at 3 AM are 15-20 deg warmer for most locations compared to 24 hrs ago, ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s. At the surface, the west-northwest winds ushered in this morning by the trough axis will turn back to the southwest later in the day. This occurs ahead of another trough axis expected to start moving in later tonight, accompanying that next upper level disturbance.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN / SOUTHWEST CONUS / FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW US WILL DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS MAINTAINING AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS ALOFT, PARTICULARLY OVER SW MT.
954 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE COVERS THE GULF COAST STATES INCLUDING THE GULF THIS EVENING AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FM SRN ARK ACRS LA INTO THE NW GULF. LT VRBL WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SELY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CNTRD EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MOUNTAIN WEST. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE DEFORMATION BAND WHIRLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS SLOWLY BEING ERODED AS DRY AIR CONTINUALLY FEEDS INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE WEST UNDERNEATH IT. THIS LEAVES METRO PITTSBURGH AS ABOUT THE FARTHEST WEST ANY RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DEFORMATION BAND FALLS APART AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AIDE IN DEVELOPING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGHEST QPF AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE SUCH THAT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 6-10" RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS FROM CYS-SNY SHOW FAVORABLE TURNING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN THAT MUCH OF THE CONUS HAS SEEN OF LATE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE NRN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT.
616 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGHWAY 14 CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AND KEPT THE HIGHER SCATTERED POPS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER.
GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FURTHER MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNNY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY. AND UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS SW TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NE MEXICO.
SO THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE AND LOWER THE LOWS TONIGHT AT A FEW LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE LOUISIANA- ARKANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
1018 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY.
730 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG THE NC COAST) WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER. -VINCENT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/ CAROLINA COAST IN THIS PERIOD. SUPPLANTED BY A MUCH WARMER NORTHWEST (SAT) TO WESTERLY (SAT NIGHT) FLOW ALOFT. AND LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE ARE PROMOTING DEEP MIXING AND SOARING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WITH PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FGEN BETWEEN 925-700MB IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO WYOMING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD TSTMS IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER JET ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND MOVES OVER COLORADO. IMPLYING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP EITHER ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OR ACROSS LARIMER.
MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL GET OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
635 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING.