Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG IMPULSE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA EARLY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY.
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH BILL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THEY WILL MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS.
627 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
/ISSUED 431 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO T. TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW THAT IN PREVIOUS DAYS. AND WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE HIGH RES SOLUTION. THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND EASTERN CWFA. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. NLISTEMAA GUIDANCE IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH MAIN FEATURES OF THE FCST PERIOD AS REGIME TRANSITIONS BACK TO BROAD RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA SHOULD DRIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY.
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WILL TEND TO SHUNT BILL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A BAND OF RAIN FURTHER FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW COULD POTENTIALLY COME NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ESSENTIALLY STALL AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. BUT BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THEN WILL SLOWLY PULL EASTWARD AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE COMPACT AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW AND ALL SHIFT IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA/KENTUCKY BY 18Z SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
Afternoon highs today will range from the upper 80s, along our Interstate 10 corridor, to the lower 90s north of our Interstate 20 corridor.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF ABUNDANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TDS IN THE LOW 60S. HUMID WITH TDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WARMER TONIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE DAKOTA SYSTEM.
1128 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER (DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S) WHICH GIVES MINIMAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 110 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS CONTINUES ON THE DRY SIDE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 40S AS OF 2 AM. AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MEX JUST W OF THE CWA TODAY THRU SAT. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE W CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES. KEPT CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON SAT AS MODELS PROG THE TROF TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E ON SAT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES.
959 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH END NATURE OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKER ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH OUR CWA.
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CO GETS FLATTENED AS ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRANSLATES ACROSS WY AND MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROF STRENGTHS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WHICH LEANS FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND. AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. IS EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG IMPULSE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA EARLY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY.
1115 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 NW GULF COAST REGION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDERNEATH A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS TO THE EAST AND WEST. ANOTHER STEAMY AND WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP AS HIGHS NEAR 90 AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
942 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE VALLEYS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKER ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH OUR CWA.
Quick look at model standard anomaly plots suggest 850 temps of 2-3 standard deviations above normal by Saturday afternoon as a thermal ridge of nearly 28C extends into the area. dewpoints by Saturday afternoon will be in the lower to middle 70s which will create plain out sultry conditions across the lower Missouri Rvr Vly. With heat index values still expected to reach into the lower 100s.
STILL BELIEVE THAT WITH THE CONTRACTION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES AND CONCENTRATION WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FALL IN A SWATH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOT AND HUMID AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES. AS THE MID LVL RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TOWARD MID WEEK. WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING WEST AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS RESULTED IN BAND OF +SHRA AND TSTMS FROM NEAR UVA TO NORTH OF SAT TO JUST SW OF AUS. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST.
1046 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BRINGING A COOLER BUT DRIER AIRMASS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE THE MAIN THEME OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH RATHER MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THRU THE RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
MAJOR QUESTIONS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT) WILL BE POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THE AIR WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER ALOFT. TRULY A MIDSUMMER RIDGE AS FAR AS THE HEAT GOES. BUT BETWEEN THE DRYING AND TEMPERATURES BARELY BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED JUST TO THE EAST.
604 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER WEST WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER BY AFTERNOON. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20 KTS RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEARING 150 M2/S2 IS ON THE LOWER END OF BEING SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES WHEN COUPLED WITH EXPECTED LOW LCL HEIGHTS. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S WITHIN THE INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
735 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HELPING TO CLEAR OUT MORNING CLOUDS.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING WITH IT.
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY.
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES/GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
REMNANTS OF TS BILL OVER THE LOWER MS VLY TO SHIFT EAST THRU OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS STRONG COLD FRONT. WE FIND OURSELVES IN BETWEEN THESE WITH SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH BUT WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASES OF OUR WESTERN NEIGHBORS. THE UPPER PATTERN DRIVING DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SE MISSOURI. WITH WEAK A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ALSO KICKING EASTWARD WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TODAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY GLIDES ON THROUGH. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE ALSO LIFTING A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH TODAY WHICH WILL THEN ALLOW FOR EROSION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO SUPPORT COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS.
619 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A COOLER AIR MASS AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
312 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT GENERAL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INLAND EXTENT. A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ON WED THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND AS A WK CDFNT MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES WITH WK SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING SEWD ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS KEPT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROF MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT. LOW POPS KEPT FOR TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE SUSTAINED BY WEAK RIPPLES IN MID-LEVEL FLOW.
WEAK RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH. THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS AGAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREA. THE DRY AIR AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST TOMORROW AND KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET. AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHLAND WEATHER. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY FOR ALL DAY TUESDAY AS WELL.
311 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY HAS INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
635 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. MUCH COOLER NORTH OF FRONT TODAY.
IT WILL PROVIDE STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO NE ND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL APPROACH. THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF ANY SVR WX WILL HINGE ON PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BUT LINGER TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING SUPPORT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A WEAK FRONT SAGS SE TOWARDS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
145 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDINESS CUTTING DOWN ON SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER.
112 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A COOLER AIR MASS AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT. ON THU AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR CA. WITH A DIRTY UPR RIDGE OVR CO. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE THE LOW FROM SRN CA FRI NIGHT AND INTO NV BY LATE SUN.
301 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO CANADA. CHILLY NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY. BUT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY. PROMINENT UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MAKE IT TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL OOZE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE HURON/.
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN DECENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LVLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID AFTN. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
649 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
530 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. STILL MAY SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS EAST-SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG TRAILING 700 MB TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL THEN UNFOLD THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A CUT OFF UPPER PV ANOMALY WILL BE MEANDERING SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
411 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A COOLER AIR MASS AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
1053 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly Monday and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in from the south. Unsettled and cooler weather will persist into the remainder of the work week with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
As a result, expect warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
220 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. MUCH COOLER NORTH OF FRONT TODAY.
350 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE HIGHER AXIS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
112 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MONDAY WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE UNDER THINNER CLOUD COVER REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN HAPPENING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SINKING AIR ALOFT BECMG ESTABLISHED.
WITH AN ELEVATED THREAT/ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS PUT THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW COOL DOWN HEADING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U. MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS CLEARED TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER ARKANSAS. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW HAS PRODUCED LONG-WAY TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z.
356 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CAN BE SEEN SPINNING OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW.
253 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015 A cool and cloudy morning is underway across the region, as the area largely remains under the influence of an upper low slowly spinning east across east central Arkansas. This upper low should finally move far enough east of the area by this afternoon to allow for partial clearing. The warmer readings can be expected over southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, where the opportunity for sunshine will be higher.
339 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY. FINER DETAILS INCLUDE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. ALLOWING WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE HOLD.
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGE CONT TO TRY AND BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND A SURFACE FRONT MAKES SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD AND INTO THE AREA AS THE MODELS TRY AN DEVELOP AN EASTERN TROUGH.
137 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL CAA IS CONTINUING ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED SE OF THE FA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL PUSH AN INVERTED TROUGH BACK NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CAUSE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS CYCLE. ALOFT UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING EASTERN HALF OF U. UPPER LOW CRAWLS EASTWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z TUESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 24 DURING THE DAY.
The ridge noted to our west will slip east into the Plains States early this work week keeping any chance at more precipitable weather at bay for today and Tuesday at least.
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US IS FORECAST TO BRING NORTHWARD A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. AFTER TUESDAY, AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER, WARMER AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY COULD DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS.