Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level analysis this morning showed a trough moving across the northern plains pushing a weakness into the subtropical ridge over Texas. The low level flow across our CWA was from the south to southeast and this was making it difficult for any storms to move very far into our area.
Have updated PoPs to reduce overall coverage, while focusing on increased coverage near the showers/storms along the cold front and decreased activity near the low pressure circulation center. The flow aloft is dominated by a trough over the Mid- Mississippi region this afternoon. At the surface, a low continues to churn over central Illinois with thunderstorms developing along and south of its associated warm front.
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A surface boundary will combine with short wave energy rounding the top of the western ridge to generate some scattered showers/thunderstorms near the Black Hills tonight.
The upper trough partially responsible for our rain chances recently should weaken as it shifts off to the northeast, allowing for a weak upper level ridging pattern and thus a more subsident air mass to settle into the region Tuesday. Outside of an isolated storm during peak heating, dry weather is expected tomorrow with highs near or slightly below normal in the low to mid 90s. Weak upper level ridging will take over our large scale weather pattern Tuesday night through the end of the week.
Otherwise, low temperatures will reach the lower 70s across the interior with mid 70s along the coast.
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with the ridge axis north of the area.
/issued 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Ridging at the midlevels across the western Atlantic and the southwestern US will continue to keep conditions dry through this evening with light to moderate southeasterly winds. Late tonight into Tuesday, a midlevel trough will move through the Mississippi Valley and an inverted midlevel trough will develop over northern Mexico into the western Gulf bringing back a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially along the coast, into Tuesday night.
Upper level analysis high pressure over the desert southwest with an upper level trough digging into the eastern Dakotas.
A closed upper high remains centered over southern CA, with northeasterly flow aloft across our forecast area.
Have little confidence in such a moisture rich and unstable atmosphere with not much of any organized lifting mechanisms to note, diurnal max heating influences wanning, and a slow shift eastward of slowly deepening upper level troughing influences, to rely on any particular Convective-Allowing Model(CAMs) model solution to accurately portray what will actually happen across mid state region as it comes to development and coverage of showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms as nighttime hours progress.
Best chance for any future development through the night likely also remains in the north portion of the CWA, closer to the influence of the E CONUS trough. Biggest threat for any weather would come in the form of fog/mist development after midnight, especially where some of the higher rainfall totals from earlier were.
906 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Almost a repeat of last night as an upper level low pressure system remains over the Midwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the region and rotate around the upper level low. /issued 246 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ An upper level low over west central Illinois will continue to drift off to the north. The upper level low will continue to move off to the north tomorrow resulting in less influence over the Midsouth. However, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer resulting in one more day of enhanced afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
623 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through this weekend. Once sea breeze activity moves out of the far interior, expect a relatively dry night as the upper low off the northeast Florida moves north around the periphery of the subtropical anticyclone centered well offshore.
The flow aloft is dominated by a trough over the Mid- Mississippi region this afternoon. At the surface, a low continues to churn over central Illinois with thunderstorms developing along and south of its associated warm front.
The mid and upper-level trough just northwest of the area has led to convective development late this morning, mainly east of the Mississippi, and that activity will continue to work north and east through the EVV Tri State through sunset. A trough will move eastward into Ontario Canada Tuesday, and as it does so it will draw most of the energy from our trough northward.
618 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the region through most of this week. Lows in the low/mid 70s interior to mid/upr 70s coast. 596 dm ridge expected over E NC, limiting shower/storm development once again. Otw, partly cloudy skies and hot/humid conditions again with highs in the low 90s interior to 85-90 near the coast.
Portions of the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley are much cooler than yesterday, around 5 to 15 degrees. Ensemble guidance is in agreement that the strong high pressure will begin to weaken and shift east tomorrow through midweek due to a trough forming in the Eastern Pacific.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper low along the east central Fl coast will continue to drift north reaching the Carolinas on Tuesday. Convection should end this evening over land but may continue over the coastal waters as the low traverses the area. An east to southeast steering flow will continue on Tuesday as the subtropical ridge axis remains to the north.
Recent upper-level water vapor imagery showing the upper low making eastward progress out of the Missouri Valley with dry air across much of Kansas. Weak to moderate warm air advection around 850 mb tonight into early Tuesday for a warmer afternoon.
Expect highs to top out in the lower 90s with decreases in cloud cover and rainfall coverage contributing to the slight increase in temperature.
That flow, on the wrn periphery of a wrn Atlantic/E Coast ridge, will continue to support isold to sct convection tonight as weak shrtwv ripples move through the flow. A closed upper low, currently over Missouri, will begin to fill and lift towards the Great Lakes tonight and into Tuesday. In response, the ridge on the Atlantic Seaboard will strengthen a bit, which will also edge the frontal boundary further north into Michigan and New York State.
816 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Aviation - Marginal svr and flw risk late this afternoon into tonight - Strong storms possible Tue - Organized convection Wed night to Thu night - Marginal svr and flw risk late this afternoon into tonight Mid to upper level low over IL opens up and lifts through Lower MI into Tuesday. So far the low clouds have limited the destabilization today.
927 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the region through most of this week. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s interior to mid/upr 70s coast. 596 dm ridge expected over E NC, limiting shower/storm development once again. Otw, partly cloudy skies and hot/humid conditions again with highs in the low 90s interior to 85-90 near the coast.
/issued 246 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ An upper level low over west central Illinois will continue to drift off to the north. The upper level low will continue to move off to the north tomorrow resulting in less influence over the Midsouth. However, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer resulting in one more day of enhanced afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
The weak cold front is still slowly moving over our CWA (currently just east of Grand Forks but still west of Fargo) and until this clears our area a few showers or weak thunderstorms can't be ruled out overnight in MN. Temperatures along the boundary are in the low 80s with dew points around 60.
High pressure will bring slightly warmer weather on Tuesday.
844 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through this weekend. Convection has recently started to develop near this outflow as it interacts with the upper low aloft.
A persistent upper low with cold air aloft continues to produce scattered small showers, especially over the southeast half of the cwfa. The slow moving upper low and trough axis over MO will finally kick east late tonight and Tuesday with rising heights and warmer air moving in from the west. After a cool start in the low/mid 60s highs should reach into the 80s.
510 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Stacked low continues to spin over the Midwest (to our west) but will begin to fill and lift north-northeastward with time, opening up into a trough as it moves out of the region. Until then, subtle disturbances rotating around the periphery of the low will provide an enhanced opportunity for showers and thunderstorms through the period. Freezing levels remain relatively high, but a decent storm motion of around 20 kts implies the bigger threat of localized flooding may come from more organized convection or even training.
Tuesday will be another hot day, but slightly cooler in most areas, and with less coverage of triple digit values as a moderating trend continues. Ensembles are then holding the upper trough in place while a large ridge of high pressure is driven up from the Four Corners region, and then begins battling to be dominant influencing feature against the trough. Some warming will be likely win out with an expanding ridge.
Stacked low continues to spin over the Midwest (to our west) but will begin to fill and lift north-northeastward with time, opening up into a trough as it moves out of the region. Until then, subtle disturbances rotating around the periphery of the low will provide an enhanced opportunity for showers and thunderstorms through the period. Freezing levels remain relatively high, but a decent storm motion of around 20 kts implies the bigger threat of localized flooding may come from more organized convection or even training.
1041 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Typical summer time pattern will continue through the week with the Bermuda High ridging into the forecast area. Upper low moving clockwise around the upper high offshore is progged to move north through our region Tuesday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms per latest high resolution model runs. In the wake of this upper low moving to our NE, along with a closed low and upper trough over the Midwest weakening and shifting NE, the upper high offshore is expected to begin building westward into our region Wed. Model ensemble means in good agreement in indicating upper high to remain over the region Thu/Fri, with h5 heights slightly above climatological normals, and PW values remaining near climatological normals.
An upper level short wave trough will move across the Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and night.
Have updated PoPs to reduce overall coverage, while focusing on increased coverage near the showers/storms along the cold front and decreased activity near the low pressure circulation center. The flow aloft is dominated by a trough over the Mid- Mississippi region this afternoon. At the surface, a low continues to churn over central Illinois with thunderstorms developing along and south of its associated warm front. Central Illinois gets a break from the rain Tuesday night and Wednesday as this trough begins lifting out of the region.
Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs in the low 80s.
1016 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The upper trough that has brought recent storms across the area will start to lift out of the region tonight. However, the frontal boundary that accompanied the trough will remained stalled just south of the Interstate 30 corridor of Northeast Texas and adjacent Southwest Arkansas. The area of low pressure currently exiting the Upper Mississippi River Valley will continue northeastward, further into the Midwest, carrying the air mass and attendant frontal boundary back north with it. Afternoon highs in the lower 90's are likely tomorrow with more isolated, diurnally-driven convection and less cloud cover to inhibit temperatures. Tuesday night lows and dew points will approach the lower 70s, however, slightly stronger winds may reduce the chance of patchy fog in our northern zones.
Some areas will achieve their warmest temps of the week on Wednesday while areas just north will be cooler.
1137 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Isolated showers have developed in our far east ahead of the cold front, with some lightning activity over the northwest angle. The weak cold front is still slowly moving over our CWA (currently just east of Grand Forks but still west of Fargo) and until this clears our area a few showers or weak thunderstorms can't be ruled out overnight in MN. Temperatures along the boundary are in the low 80s with dew points around 60.
The mid and upper-level trough just northwest of the area has led to convective development late this morning, mainly east of the Mississippi, and that activity will continue to work north and east through the EVV Tri State through sunset. A trough will move eastward into Ontario Canada Tuesday, and as it does so it will draw most of the energy from our trough northward. The remnants of the trough will move eastward through our region Tuesday, and then the upper ridge will build back northward over our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Tuesday than today, but still not to normal levels. As the ridge builds, highs Wednesday will be near normal around 90 degrees.
Large upper trough axis that has brought us the wet pattern the past several days will swing through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today, giving us one more day of widespread showers and thunderstorms, with highest coverage expected this afternoon. Forecast CAPE and shear values are on the low side so no strong or severe storms are anticipated.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level trough that has brought multiple rounds of heavy rain the past couple of days is finally moving off to the east. Behind it, an upper-level ridge located over the Desert Southwest will attempt to nose back into west Texas today. Between stronger winds, a warmer airmass, and plentiful sunshine, high temperatures should reach into the low 90s this afternoon.
00z models are in general agreement that the aforementioned trough will move northeast through the lower Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight. In addition, the cold pool could enhance the warm front located south of the I-90 corridor. Several models suggest that the low level helicity will climb up to 300 m2/s2 near this front. One limiting factor to the damaging wind threat is that the low level lapse rates are not that steep in that model. As the low level jet impinges on the boundary south of Interstate 90, there will a threat for training convection which could cause some localized flooding.
A closed upper low, currently over Missouri, will begin to fill and lift towards the Great Lakes tonight and into Tuesday. In response, the ridge on the Atlantic Seaboard will strengthen a bit, which will also edge the frontal boundary further north into Michigan and New York State.
More showers and thunderstorms moving north across the Mason Dixon line into the Lower Susquehanna Valley late this evening.
5kft when showers will begin to develop across the terminals as an upper low slides over and then north of the region with increased moisture trialing it. Upper low along the east central Fl coast will continue to drift north reaching the Carolinas on Tuesday. Convection should end this evening over land but may continue over the coastal waters as the low traverses the area. An east to southeast steering flow will continue on Tuesday as the subtropical ridge axis remains to the north.
WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while an upper level high remains centered across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, weak lee side troughing remains settled in extreme eastern Colorado. High pressure aloft will extend slightly eastward tonight and into tomorrow morning. High pressure aloft will dominate much of the forecast area. The lee trough will deepen slightly through the day. With a low level warm air advection in place, expect highs to be warmer tomorrow. Will have to watch out for the slight chance of storms developing during the afternoon along a pre-frontal trof axis.
339 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 An upper-level trough is positioned over the Quad State early this morning. Low pressure is moving northeastward towards Michigan, finally beginning to make its way out of the Midwest. With high pressure set up near the Carolina coast, southwesterly winds and tropical moisture will continue to move into the Quad State.
Best chance for any future development through the night likely also remains in the north portion of the CWA, closer to the influence of the E CONUS trough. Biggest threat for any weather would come in the form of fog/mist development after midnight, especially where some of the higher rainfall totals from earlier were. /issued 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday Night] A series of disturbances wrapping around an upper level low centered over Illinois this afternoon continues to send lines of convection through the area. The aforementioned upper low will begin to lift off to the northeast tomorrow and while there will still be some marginal upper level support, convection tomorrow will be more diurnally driven and less well organized than has been seen the last couple of days.
A cold front working across the region has moved into northeast South Dakota.
1221 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the region through most of this week. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s interior to mid/upr 70s coast. 596 dm ridge expected over E NC, limiting shower/storm development once again. Otw, partly cloudy skies and hot/humid conditions again with highs in the low 90s interior to 85-90 near the coast.
258 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the week providing a typical summertime pattern. The center of high pressure will remain offshore of the eastern US on Tuesday, ridging back into the forecast area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should initially develop along a sea breeze, a weak Piedmont trough and remnant outflow boundaries from the previous day. Temperatures will be similar to the past few days, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the lower 70s. High pressure aloft builds westward during the middle of this week. High pressure aloft will be over the Southeast U. Model ensembles develop lower H5 heights and a possible weak upper trough over the Northeast U. Disturbances rotating around this possible trough may lead to enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity.
Otherwise, with clouds scattering out and warm west winds across the region, highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure centered near southern Nevada will attempt to build east over the next several days, however broad troughing over the North Plains and Great Lakes regions will only allow 500mb heights to increase from around 590dam to 592dam.
404 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Bermuda high pressure system will begin to weaken tonight as an upper level trough approaches from the Great Lakes. A cold front will drop into the area this weekend. Ridge at upper levels (~250 mb) will begin to weaken today, but remain strong at mid-levels. Mid-level ridge pattern will break down quickly tonight as it feels pressure from advancing trough moving across the Great Lks and northern Mid-Atlantic. This feature will aid in the development of a surface trof Wednesday afternoon with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected to develop.
Have little confidence in such a moisture rich and unstable atmosphere with not much of any organized lifting mechanisms to note, diurnal max heating influences wanning, and a slow shift eastward of slowly deepening upper level troughing influences, to rely on any particular Convective-Allowing Model(CAMs) model solution to accurately portray what will actually happen across mid state region as it comes to development and coverage of showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms as nighttime hours progress. Otherwise, big upper trough axis will be on approach this afternoon across the taf areas.
With steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient instability present, thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of the trough axis late this afternoon, then drift eastward, potentially into west central and extreme southwest Kansas late in the evening/overnight hours. For tonight, look for lows down into the lower/mid 70s(F) for the most part.
Latest RAP 500mb analysis and GOES 16 water vapor imagery depicts a mid-level ridge centered over Las Vegas. This is mostly due to large scale subsidence on the eastern periphery of the mid- level ridge to our west. This ridge is unlikely to move much, resulting in Deja Vu for both this afternoon/evening as well as Wednesday afternoon and evening.
124 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through this weekend.
Predawn temps ranged fm the lower 60s to the mid 70s. The aforementioned sfc fnt wl eventually dissipate as an assocd upr trof sloly lifts NEWD out of the area.
Today Through Wednesday As of this afternoon, a surface cyclone and associated mid/upper trough are noted over MO with scattered diurnal convection beginning to develop over portions of the area. Convective coverage is expected to be even less by Tuesday as the trough axis lifts northeast and associated forcing weakens.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ A ridge over the western CONUS will nudge eastward into the Southern Plains over the next 24 hours, which will suppress convective development across the region compared to the past few days. An exception may be across the eastern zones where subsidence from the ridge will be weakest. Weak upper level ridging will take over our large scale weather pattern Tuesday night through the end of the week.
The low stratus in place over the area will gradually begin to break up by mid/late morning and subsequently most locations should be able to warm into the mid 80s once again. A slow-moving cold front will push southeast into the area later today with some additional lift from the trough as it moves across the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned front will sag further to the south this evening and become more diffuse as the parent trough shifts into the northeastern United States and a subtropical ridge of high pressure builds west into the Deep South.
A weak dry cold front will move through the region tonight as an upper trough passes by to the north. The front will bring slightly cooler air with temps down several degrees on Tuesday, but with highs still around 100F in the lower valleys. An upper trough will move by to our north tonight and push a weak front through our area, resulting in a shift to northwest winds. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler than today behind the front, but still around 5 degrees above normal. Northwest winds will become breezy on Tuesday as the trough pushes to the east. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees on Wednesday as an upper ridge passes overhead.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 70s across the region at 3AM.
/issued 906 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ Almost a repeat of last night as an upper level low pressure system remains over the Midwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the region and rotate around the upper level low. /issued 246 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ An upper level low over west central Illinois will continue to drift off to the north. The upper level low will continue to move off to the north tomorrow resulting in less influence over the Midsouth. However, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer resulting in one more day of enhanced afternoon showers and thunderstorms.