Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Accumulating snow has ended and the threat for freezing drizzle is diminishing. Lake enhanced snow showers will come to an end gradually as brief ridging moves in throughout the day. freezing drizzle and light snow in the advisory area of the ridges remains a possibility this morning. For now, still expect snow to be the dominant precipitation form, although drizzle/freezing drizzle could be an issue once again if ice crystals are lacking. A warmer boundary layer will keep a rain/snow mix in the lower elevations initially on Wednesday, before the arrival of cold advection/northwest flow helps to turn over all precip to snow. The ridges may pick up a couple inches, with less elsewhere.
/Issued 322 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019/ High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period. Upper low is situated off the coast of New England this morning with a longwave trough off the east coast. Strong energy continues to rotate through the base of the trough early this morning. The low will move off to the east through today with the flow turning more zonal by early Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will remain situated across the western Gulf States through the period, with north/northwest surface flow across the outlook area. The models don't have a great handle on what is occurring, but do think the clouds should begin to dissipate as soon as the trough moves further east, taking all the upper energy along with it.
Observing sites showing temperature readings within the 30s, with a few spots in central LA at or slightly below freezing. Not expecting this to become too widespread, but with temperatures near or below freezing, will need to keep an eye on it. High pressure begins to slide east this morning with light winds turning southerly through the afternoon. Moisture will increase at least a little with this, and afternoon highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than that of yesterday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Relatively dry and stable ridging at the surface and 500 mb levels will maintain pretty quiet conditions across the RGV and Deep South TX throughout Wed Night. The low level dewpoints will continue working upwards through Thurs morning. The cooler temperatures will also moderate steadily throughout the upcoming period allowing the max/mins to moderate somewhat. Although the low level moisture return will increase the cld cover throughout the period, deep layer moisture will remain too limited to need the mention of any significant pops.
245 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, courtesy of an upper ridge over the SW CONUS. At the sfc, a weak cold front is working south through the area. Wednesday, a closed low on the west side of the ridge will make landfall on the west coast, nudging the ridge east through the region.
High temperatures in the low to mid 50s will persist throughout the remainder of the afternoon. Clear skies tonight will allow low temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s, which is just above normal for this time of year.
The first of two volleys (sp?) of energy rotating around the long-er wave trough will cross overhead tonight and bring mid and upper clouds. These clouds will have some decent UVVELs and will probably seed the lower stuff and generate at least flurries over most of the area.
1230 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2019 Broad upper ridging over the western CONUS is placing the northern plains beneath northwest flow.
153 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 A deep layer, but narrow trough axis was located from central IL through AR will arrive after 06Z. Mid to high level clouds accompany the trough, but may tend to become more limited as they enter the TN valley. At the surface, light flow beneath the ridge this afternoon may become light westerly with the passage of the trough. Lows should drop into the lower to middle 30s, with a few spots at freezing in southern TN and northeast AL. West-northwest flow will persist behind the trough, with neutral to slightly warm advection on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Weak high pressure ridging over the southeastern CONUS this morning is keeping the weather relatively quiet. Temperatures are a little slower to respond under the low clouds, and forecast reflects the trend with daytime highs in the low to mid 40s to the east. Winds will be light and somewhat variable under the weak ridging. though generally southwesterly once the ridge axis slips to the east.
Northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia will remain socked in with cloud cover and the cooler temperatures will be slow to rise. Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 35 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 34 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 33 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 29 46 28 / 0 10 0 0.
232 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 (Tonight and Wednesday) As indicated by surface wind observations, a weak and dry surface cold front is moving into the Big Country this afternoon and models indicate the front will move south through the rest of the region through late afternoon/early evening. South of the front, temperatures as of 1 pm have reached into the low to mid 70s, while in the Big Country (where the front is moving through currently), temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 60s. Wednesday, surface winds will turn southerly by afternoon, allowing temperatures to recover pretty well from the previous night's cold front.
A weak surface trof will shift the winds to the northwest this afternoon, but will have little impact on temperatures.
/27/ Expect dry weather and light winds today as high pressure remains in control across the region. Lows on Tuesday night will fall into the 30s, remaining well above freezing for most areas.
No impactful weather is anticipated through the next 24-36 hours as surface ridging overspreads the region tonight into Wednesday. Overnight lows tonight are progged to reach the lower 30s, while afternoon highs tomorrow reach the middle 50s.
245 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Quiet and benign fcst period on tap as the regime remains mainly under NW flow aloft and ridge dominated dry conditions.
Another mostly clear and cold night with areas of frost is in store tonight under high pressure.
Cloud coverage has gradually decreased over much of the Middle and Upper Keys, with cloud cover hanging on a little longer in the Lower Keys. Current temperatures range from around 60 in the Middle and Upper Keys to the middle and upper 60s in the Lower Keys. Large- scale subsidence owing to high pressure centered near Louisiana today will prevent any showers from forming in the area.
1250 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 A series of longwave troughs will dig into the West Coast and then lift out well north of Florida.
The departing upper trough and rising heights aloft will aid in bumping temperatures up into the 30s today as a warmer airmass out of the Pacific influences the region. High pressure at the sfc will keep the area dry today and Wednesday.
1125 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had a closed low off the coast of Virginia. A trough extended south of this feature into the Bahamas. Further west, a closed low was located approximately 500 miles west of San Francisco CA. A trough extended to the south west of this feature and shows up on WV imagery overnight. At the surface, high pressure was anchored across the intermountain west. Mid level hts will rise slightly into the afternoon hours as the trough transitions east. Highs will range from the lower 40s in the north to near 50 in southwestern Nebraska.
Weak high pressure ridging over the southeastern CONUS this morning is keeping the weather relatively quiet. Temperatures are a little slower to respond under the low clouds, and forecast reflects the trend with daytime highs in the low to mid 40s to the east. Winds will be light and somewhat variable under the weak ridging. though generally southwesterly once the ridge axis slips to the east. Southwesterly flow, though light under the ridge axis.
Winds have started veering to the NW late this morning as a weak cold front sinks south through the region today. /issued 303 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ An upper level trough is centered over Minnesota and an upper low is over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of California. The upper trough over the Pacific Ocean moves over SoCal on Wednesday with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Temperature trends look good as well, but may have tweak them a bit if the high clouds are thicker than anticipated this afternoon. The previously mentioned ridge will quickly depart as a trough swings through the Great Lakes region. Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight will provide good radiational cooling to have overnight temps dip back into the lower 30s. This will help overnight lows be a tad higher in the low/mid 30s.
1035 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather over the next several days.
223 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will prevail through the week.
Patchy freezing drizzle is possible as well especially across the upper Snake Plain. This will bring a good chance of snow to the high county with accumulations likely. One of the lowest confidence forecasts for TAFs in the last 15 years here. High pressure moving in has trapped moisture below an inversion. High pressure has settled over the region.
A ridge was over the Wrn USA and a shrtwv trof was over the upr Midwest heading into the GtLks. This low-amplitude flow will remain thru tomorrow with winds backing to WNW. This high will slide SE into the Srn Plns thru tomorrow. with the ridge axis crossing the CWA around midday. Highs should be 2-3F warmer than today where skies remain sunniest (N of Hwy 6). The Wrn USA ridge will move E and cross NEB/KS Sat. Significant amplification of the longwaves is fcst due to a deep trof advancing into the NE Pac. This will force a ridge to build from the W coast into Yukon. A stronger cold front is fcst to move thru Mon morning. Warmer than normal Sat-Sun.
A weak trough will be coming through the region late this afternoon and into the evening hours.
Otherwise a breezy yet pleasant evening in store as many locations across the high plains have taken in plenty of sunshine and highs today tapping into the 40 degree range.
An upper-level trough axis and dry surface front pushes further east of the region this afternoon. However, higher winds will persist this evening as a stronger, low-level, northwest flow sets up across the region and the higher values mix down to the surface through Wednesday. Otherwise, as clouds eventually move back into the region Wednesday morning, it looks to be a few degrees cooler than today with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees and overnight lows in the 20s.
1156 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Fair and cool conditions continue as dry high pressure builds into the area. The air mass will moderate through mid week with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region late week with a chance of rain. At the surface, dry high pressure will remain. A digging upper trough moving southeastward out of the northern plains region will move through the southeastern states later on tonight. Overnight low temperatures tonight falling back down into the lower to middle 30s.
257 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Temperatures have had a hard time reaching their full potential by a few degrees over much of the Florida Keys this afternoon, partially attributable to stubborn cloud cover over portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. This has resulted in the lowest high temperatures since last January for most island communities. A very dry air mass has settled in over the island chain, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s in the Middle and Upper Keys to mid 50s in the Lower Keys.
With a trough of low pressure sitting over east central portions of Colorado, light WSW winds are moving over the region.
At the surface, a trough axis extended south-sw from a low centered over the Hudson Bay region across WI and eastern IA/northwest Illinois. Surface analysis also showed high pressure building over the Central High Plains, which will continue the dry and quiet weather as it builds eastward into the forecast area through Wednesday. With a continued light pressure gradient, surface winds will be more of a factor, holding around 10 mph or so to keep temperatures near or a bit warmer than last night with lows in the upper 20s to around 30. Wednesday looks similar to today, except with lighter surface winds as the high pressure ridge builds into the area.
1127 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had a closed low off the coast of Virginia. A trough extended south of this feature into the Bahamas. Further west, a closed low was located approximately 500 miles west of San Francisco CA. A trough extended to the south west of this feature and shows up on WV imagery overnight. At the surface, high pressure was anchored across the intermountain west. Mid level hts will rise slightly into the afternoon hours as the trough transitions east. Highs will range from the lower 40s in the north to near 50 in southwestern Nebraska.
The region will be between low pressure to the northeast and building high pressure to the west through Wednesday. This wind will help keep the low levels stirring overnight, limiting how cold it gets and minimizing frost potential.
Guidance came in with mid 50s across the Caprock which seems a bit low underneath a ridge with perhaps some high cloud cover so bumped temperatures up a few degrees to hold the region near 60 degrees. The upper level low spinning west of California today will slowly drift east through mid-week crossing the coast roughly mid-day Wednesday. This will start to increase mid and high-level cloud cover through mid-week as subtropical moisture is pulled ahead of the low as it weakens into an open trough.
248 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 An elongated 500mb trough will swing through the region late this afternoon. A couple of models hint at some very light QPF over the several hours as the trough passes through, but model soundings show quite a bit of dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere, so it appears highly unlikely that anything more than sprinkles would make it to the ground. Skies should clear quickly tonight from west to east behind the trough as it pushes off to the east coast. Tomorrow is shaping up to be quite a mild and sunny day in the wake of the trough.
Upper level ridge to the west of the area today will move closer to the area on Wednesday keeping the area under clear skies and above normal temperatures with highs in the 50s.
Clear skies will likely continue though the night as a weak frontal boundary moves into the area on the backside of the low. Minimum temperatures tonight will reach into the lower 40s for most of the area.
The high level clouds are clearing out from west to east this morning as the upper-level trough axis pushes through the region this morning. Southwesterly winds will continue this morning, but as the upper- level trough axis and dry surface front pushes through the region this morning, expect winds to veer toward the west this afternoon.
Latest guidance increased temperatures across northwest MN from the mid to upper teens to the low 20s. Latest SREF H700 RH guidance showing increased cloudiness mid-day Wednesday, which will cut off heating by early aftn and we should max out a few deg cooler than today.
West-southwesterly flow will become northwesterly this afternoon as an upper ridge progresses east over the Rockies. The ridge will progress east over the Tri-State region on Wednesday. A 500mb flattening ridge sits over most of the southern U.
Sensible weather over us will be increasing cloud cover with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 20s.
high pressure will continue to move slowly eastward through Southeastern United States through Wednesday night. Temperatures will be a little bit warmer tonight compare to last night with lows in the 50s over most of the region except 40s around Lake Okeechobee region. Highs on Wednesday will also be a little bit warmer compare to today with 70s over South Florida.
A cold front will move through the region from north to south today through early this evening, resulting in W winds around 9-12 KT before the front switching to the NW to N direction at 9-12 KT after the front moves through. A weak cold front will move through the terminals this afternoon and evening. /issued 338 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move south across the area this afternoon and early evening, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the area for tomorrow. Ahead of the front, breezy west to northwest downsloping winds will develop by late morning and will contribute to warmer temperatures across the area today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 60s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 70s farther south.
Forecast mainly on track and previous discussion Baker High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period. Upper low is situated off the coast of New England this morning with a longwave trough off the east coast. Strong energy continues to rotate through the base of the trough early this morning. The low will move off to the east through today with the flow turning more zonal by early Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will remain situated across the western Gulf States through the period, with north/northwest surface flow across the outlook area. The models don't have a great handle on what is occurring, but do think the clouds should begin to dissipate as soon as the trough moves further east, taking all the upper energy along with it.
The lower clouds eventually will replaced by mid-level clouds later this evening. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s except in the higher elevations and where snowfall hasn't melted.
Expect dry weather and light winds today as high pressure remains in control across the region. Lows on Tuesday night will fall into the 30s, remaining well above freezing for most areas.
1239 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Fair and cool conditions continue as dry high pressure builds into the area. The air mass will moderate through mid week with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region late week with a chance of rain. At the surface, dry high pressure will remain. A digging upper trough moving southeastward out of the northern plains region will move through the southeastern states later on tonight. Overnight low temperatures tonight falling back down into the lower to middle 30s.
West-southwesterly flow will become northwesterly this afternoon as an upper ridge progresses east over the Rockies. The ridge will progress east over the Tri-State region on Wednesday.
Behind the exiting upper level trough, ridging will begin to take place in the area.
High pressure at the surface and plenty of dry air aloft is yielding a nearly clear visible satellite this afternoon save for a few passing high clouds and at least 8 distinct smoke plumes scattered across southwest and central Louisiana. The light southerly flow in the lowest few hundred feet of the atmosphere is expected to advect low to mid 50 dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor tonight. Despite the frontal passage, afternoon highs Wednesday are still expected to be a few degrees warmer than this afternoon owing to less high cloud cover and warmer overnight lows.
307 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 A weak trof of low pressure will move east through the forecast area this evening. High pressure will re-enter the scene for Wednesday, with a return to sunshine expected. The high pressure system will not be of Canadian origin, so a slow warming trend is expected continue. Readings should finally make it back above seasonal norms during the afternoon, with readings in the lower to mid 50s expected at most locations.
There is not much if any additional cold air behind this front, so overnight lows should generally remaining above freezing tonight. Additional cirrus cloud cover may also keep temperatures a degree or two warmer. More thin cirrus is expected during the day Wednesday, but abundant sunshine combined surface ridging overhead should overcome any effects from the cloud cover.
534 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2019 The High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire at its 5 PM ending time. Otherwise a breezy yet pleasant evening in store as many locations across the high plains have taken in plenty of sunshine and highs today tapping into the 40 degree range.
41 Quiet and benign fcst period on tap as the regime remains mainly under NW flow aloft and ridge dominated dry conditions.
Winds will drop off with sunset, but not expected to go completely calm or even light/variable with modest northwest flow continuing through the low levels. Low level ridge actually works into the forecast area during the day on Wednesday, and this should keep winds on the lighter side much of the day, but this along with a bit more cloud cover should put a damper on temperatures, despite similar to slightly warmer air just off the surface. Thus will have highs Wednesday similar, or just a shade cooler than our readings today, but still in the warmer half of guidance based on performance today.
A ridge was over the Wrn USA and a shrtwv trof was over the upr Midwest heading into the GtLks. This low-amplitude flow will remain thru tomorrow with winds backing to WNW. This high will slide SE into the Srn Plns thru tomorrow. with the ridge axis crossing the CWA around midday. Highs should be 2-3F warmer than today where skies remain sunniest (N of Hwy 6). The Wrn USA ridge will move E and cross NEB/KS Sat. Significant amplification of the longwaves is fcst due to a deep trof advancing into the NE Pac. This will force a ridge to build from the W coast into Yukon. A stronger cold front is fcst to move thru Mon morning. Warmer than normal Sat-Sun. A weak high pressure system settles into the area and light winds are expected.
Thus, highs on Wednesday should about 3 to 5 degrees cooler than today but still mainly in the 30s and melting snow.
The first of upper level distrubances rotating around the long wave trough will cross overhead tonight and bring mainly mid and upper clouds. These clouds will seed the lower stuff and generate at least flurries over most of the area.
Many of the hi-res models are keeping these higher dewpoints around the majority of the night across much of the area, which along with some cloud cover moving in from the Gulf later tonight, should help keep temperatures slightly warmer than last night/this morning (generally lower 40s except mid 40s toward Martin county). A dry frontal trough swinging toward the waters overnight will increase W/WNW winds to 17-20 knots offshore.
A slightly better radiation conditon is expected tonight and lows in the valleys could dip into the lower 20s. The guidance blend plus bias correction was the basis for the lows tonight and Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday are cooler than tonight with teens and 20s vesus 20s across the board tonight. This forecast is much cooler than the guidance blend.
So while another cool night is expected (with lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 50s), morning lows are generally expected to be several degrees higher than last night, in contrast to the common pattern of seeing the coldest temperatures on the second night behind a cold front.
A cold front will then move through between 04-05Z, bringing a northwest wind shift to our I-35 sites. Clear skies will likely continue though the night as a weak frontal boundary moves into the area on the backside of the low. Minimum temperatures tonight will reach into the lower 40s for most of the area.
642 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 Temperatures this evening are 10-15 degrees warmer than they were at this time last night, in the upper 30s to middle 40s. We should see temperatures cool into the mid 30s by morning, remaining above freezing for most of the Midsouth. Temperatures barely reached the lower 50s as pesky cirrus clouds steadily streamed into the area throughout the day. Light winds and mainly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s again overnight.
314 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 Tonight will be a slightly warmer night than last night with light winds.