Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
as a warm frontal boundary in the region will initiate a few bands of scattered showers overnight, again with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
A trough will be setting up over the central U. A low pressure system will move off to the NE this evening. Some light isolated rain can't be ruled out this afternoon as the low moves east. High moisture paired with decent CAPE and shear values near a warm front could support all types of severe weather. A large trough will then set up over the central U.
330 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a closed low centered over Ohio with a trough over the western US. A dry period is expected late tonight into Saturday as a weak ridge builds into the area. Convection is progged to develop north of the warm front in Nebraska and South Dakota and along the dryline in the High Plains. Any convection over the High Plains may propagate into north central Kansas with CAPE and shear supportive of strong winds and hail.
222 PM MDT Fri May 22 2020 Deep NW Pac upper trough will remain in place across the NW CONUS through the weekend supporting another round of unsettled conditions by tomorrow. Advecting upper trough across southern Canada will force a cold front into the region tonight, which will stall toward morning as a potent southern periphery impulse ejects NE. This has also shifted QPF totals east as well, with the highest numbers over NW SD between Buffalo and Faith. Further west, NE WY is expected to see the lower pops given main convective forcing over western SD with the upper level dry slot crossing that area.
200 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Unsettled weather will slowly give way to building high pressure over the next several days. Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms with lows tonight around 60 east of the Blue Ridge, mid/upper 50s to the west. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 80s east, mid/upper 70s west. The closed upper low that drove a wet week will make its exit into the Atlantic late Saturday. Weak ridging will begin to set up over our area for the weekend, and we will enter a fairly standard springtime pattern for the rest of this period.
/This Afternoon/ Current complex of convection over SE OK has just recently intensified across Nrn McCurtain County late this morning, as this convection is interacting with a more unstable air mass indicative of SBCapes of 1500-2500 J/kg over this area into portions of adjacent SW AR near a warm front extending from this area E into Wcntrl and Cntrl AR. However, the primary trough axis over KS/Ncntrl OK should linger through the remainder of the day, and thus re-invigorate convection later this afternoon and evening along the likely stalling mesoscale bndry over N TX into possibly extreme SE OK/adjacent SW AR as even stronger instability develops with diurnal heating. Also made a few minor upward tweaks to max temps this afternoon, especially to account for the earlier mixing of the low stratus across E TX/N LA.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 86 66 87 67 / 40 30 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 83 65 85 66 / 50 30 30 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 62 83 65 86 66 / 50 40 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 79 61 82 62 / 50 30 30 40 20.
/issued 636 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020/ High pressure to dominate the wx tdy. Guidance has backed off considerably on precipitation today with only a couple of the high res guidance showing any development at all.
Briefing dry conditions anticipated Saturday morning as the trough lifts northeast. During the afternoon, the trough will move to a position to allow some wraparound moisture to bring a few mountains showers, mainly across the West Central Mountains of Idaho.
Main focus in the near term is compact MCV-enhanced upper level low tracking northeast across the region during the next 12 hours. Based on trends in central Kansas, closer to probably true H5 low center, expect some clearing of clouds in the east to southeast quadrant of main upper low as it moves into the area. Additonal risk of heavy rainfall exists, as upper low continues to tap moisture stream from southeast U. Mid-atmospheric ridging in the wake of passage of aforementioned H5 low/MCV will inhibit development during the day. May start to see development by late afternoon as nose of ULJ from northern Rockies system begins suppressing ridging. Convective temperatures are in the low to mid-80s and temperatures, so it will be close.
The holiday weekend outlook will be warmer and more humid, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The vort max/low center will continue its northeast track, with the warm frontal zone extended off to the east into the MO bootheel.
Weak instability just south of the upper low over north central Kansas will support a few showers as well until early this evening. However, periodic chances for showers and storms will increase over the remainder of the holiday weekend as deeper moisture/higher PWAT values advect across the area in the south-southwest flow ahead of the advancing upper trof from the western CONUS.
The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will settle into the western Great Basin today, then turn east and cross Utah tonight through Saturday. Water vapor imagery shows our approaching trough feature the best as it is digging through Nevada this morning. The other thing to keep in mind this weekend will be cold overnight temperatures for mostly northern Utah and those agriculture sensitive areas that will see temperatures at or a few degrees below freezing for several hours.
130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Pesky anchored closed low over the Ohio River Valley continues to spread moisture in the form of low clouds into our area. This will result from a closed low rotating northeast from the Central Plains. Look for this closed low to continue lifting northeast across the area Saturday for increased shower/isolated thunder activity.
249 PM MDT Fri May 22 2020 A large trough with closed low over the Pacific Northwest will send southwest upper flow over NE Montana tonight and Saturday with continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. Most of this activity will remain east of Opheim, Glasgow, and Jordan, with the highest precipitation totals along the North Dakota and Montana border, south of Sidney.
A warm front remains just to the south of the local area as well, and this front may remain somewhat stagnant at least until this evening when it maybe begin to drift more to the north. Nevertheless, breaks in the cloud cover later today coupled with a southerly wind may allow temps this afternoon to climb into the lower 80s/near 80F for most spots. Have kept lower end scattered convection going for our more north and eastern areas, as from northern Limestone, central Madison and Jackson, and northern DeKalb and points north - closer to a finally departing upper low. Mild nighttime lows in the low/mid 60s are forecast.
315 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Mostly Cloudy Tonight - Increasingly Warm and Humid; Thunderstorms Saturday Night - Chance of Showers And Storms Early to Midweek - Mostly Cloudy Tonight - The upper low will continue to bring fairly extensive cloud cover tonight. - Increasingly Warm and Humid; Thunderstorms Saturday Night - Fair wx is forecast for most of the day tomorrow with weak ridging in place.
This center of this system will remain well to the south; however, warm frontal showers may push as far north as Sioux City and into northwest IA after sunset. High temperatures will be warmer than today, with mid to upper 70s during the afternoon.
Your Memorial Day Weekend is going to bring some of the warmest air to Middle TN that we've seen since last summer as the sub-tropical ridge begins to nose in the southeast U.
Lows tonight will be quite mild, only falling into the low 70s, potentially mid 70s along the coast, south of the Cape. High pressure axis across the area will lift northward into tomorrow, with low level SE winds becoming E/SE.
An upper level low pressure system will exit the region today. bringing one more mostly cloudy but warmer day to Central Indiana. A warm front is expected to approach Central Indiana on Saturday. This will result in chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms along with much warmer temperatures.
The low will gradually lift towards central Iowa by Saturday morning, bringing showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the area. With clouds lingering across northeast Iowa and clearing across southwest Iowa, highs tomorrow afternoon could vary quite a bit in the low 70s north to low 80s south.
An adjustment was also made to the temps as a few locations to the north will cross the 70 degree mark for highs with more southern locations getting slightly warmer than suggested by MOS guidance.
Am not very confident of any overnight precipitation so have kept pops on the low side, and would not be surprised if we need to delay it until during the day on Saturday.
Some weak upper level ridging builds in late tonight through Saturday and should for the most part should squelch much in the way of showers and storms. Saturday looks to be a warm and humid day with highs in the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s.
/issued 955 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020/ The first wave has moved east of the CWA this morning with trailing convection in the vicinity of a broad warm frontal zone lifting north across the Mid-South. /issued 251 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020/ A cut-off closed upper low over the Ohio Valley will finally lift out today, allowing stronger westerlies to return to the Midsouth. In the interim, a warm front will lift through northeast AR and west TN this afternoon, perhaps providing focus for storms. NAM Bufr soundings depict MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG in the vicinity of the warm front, accompanied by 3KM bulk shear of 30 knots. Saturday will see robust upper level ridging centered over GA, and isolated showers and pulse thunderstorms under the western periphery of this strong ridge.
343 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 The upper low continues to move through the forecast area this afternoon. The low shows up well in the circulation of the precipitation on radar. The low has been slow to move through the area this afternoon. Models continue to move the low through the area and then the precipitation should move out of the area. Even though the last few hours the low has been slow to move, expect that it should start to move this evening. Saturday there is a short wave ridge that moves through the area.
Upper ridge should begin to build over much of the SE region going into the Memorial Day weekend.
1134 AM MDT Fri May 22 2020 The latest analysis shows an upper trough extending southward into the pacific northwest from an upper low over southern Alberta. The southeasterly upslope flow in a region of positive theta-e advection, combined with an approaching upper trough, will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Wyoming this evening, spreading eastward and increasing in coverage tonight and on Saturday.
A few sprinkles of valley and mid-elevation rain with snow flurries in the higher mountains are likely to continue through late this afternoon, mostly across our Oregon areas under NNW flow. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though partial terrain obscurations should be expected for the higher mountains, generally above 6kft MSL. North winds will be on the increase as a thermal trough develops Friday into Saturday.
Ridging, both surface and aloft continues to nose into the area from the east tonight and Saturday. Lows tonight will range from the mid and upper 60s over interior locations to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Saturday will continue to be summer like, with most interior locations climbing into the lower 90s with mid and upper 80s closer to the coast and some low to mid 80s along the immediate beaches.
This boundary which basically becomes a cold front later tonight, will be the focus for afternoon thunderstorms. Bulk shear vectors are roughly parallel to the cold front, so convection looks to be messy and the best chance possibly being right along the frontal boundary over the north central where the potential may exist for stronger heating given the lack of cloud cover, if we can burn off any morning stratus. The cold front moves into The Devils Lake Basin to south central ND by late Saturday night.
Highs tomorrow will once again be warm with more locations potentially reaching into the lower 90s. At the surface, a Bermuda High and a developing low pressure region over the Rockies keeps the flow southerly in the southeast, pulling plenty of warmer air and moisture into ArkLaMiss and surrounding areas. deepening the trough/amplifying the pattern and perpetuating the inflow of hot temps and moisture.
132 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Periodic showers are expected today with crossing low pressure. An adjustment was also made to the temps as a few locations to the north will cross the 70 degree mark for highs with more southern locations getting slightly warmer than suggested by MOS guidance. Scattered showers are expected to continue tonight as the low crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. Isolated showers are possible Saturday, mainly E of I 79, with the area in close proximity to the low.
Farther to the south, across southeast Oklahoma, dew points in the low to mid 70s persist and are contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE near and south of the Red River. Very large hail will be possible with the strongest storms given the high instability, with at least some damaging wind and tornado potential as well.
1240 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Forecast remains challenging thanks to stagnant upper low which is still spinning over the Ohio Valley. That said, clouds will remain stubborn, especially east of the James Valley where moist/cool east-southeast low level flow continues to draw from the stuck upper low to our east. With the overall slower progression of the upper level pattern, Saturday could see the chance of spotty showers and cooler temps linger across our east into the afternoon.
Upper level ridge will build across the southeastern states over the weekend. There may be a weak short wave trough trigger moving to the southeast in northwest flow aloft.
524 PM MDT Fri May 22 2020 Deep NW Pac upper trough will remain in place across the NW CONUS through the weekend supporting another round of unsettled conditions by tomorrow. Advecting upper trough across southern Canada will force a cold front into the region tonight, which will stall toward morning as a potent southern periphery impulse ejects NE. This has also shifted QPF totals east as well, with the highest numbers over NW SD between Buffalo and Faith. Further west, NE WY is expected to see the lower pops given main convective forcing over western SD with the upper level dry slot crossing that area.
Some of these cumulus clouds should clear out later tonight as the sun sets and the low moves eastward. Temperatures should also be on the cooler side of guidance tonight. High pressure will then build through the weekend with a thermal trough building along the coast. Temperatures will trend warmer with highs pushing into the 70's and mid 80's on Memorial Day. An upper level ridge will build through the week with a large thermal trough building over the Pacific Northwest.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a closed low centered over Ohio with a trough over the western US. A dry period is expected late tonight into Saturday as a weak ridge builds into the area. Convection is progged to develop north of the warm front in Nebraska and South Dakota and along the dryline in the High Plains. Any convection over the High Plains may propagate into north central Kansas with CAPE and shear supportive of strong winds and hail.
The closed low to the northeast continues to move east tonight as mid/upper level ridge builds up from the south. Increase of showers possible late tonight across the northeast part of the area as 850MB warm front shifts north.
Dry weather and increasing interior temperatures are expected for the foreseeable future as high pressure continues to build over the region. Winds have been gusty along the coast and over the higher terrain. A significant warming trend is expected to begin this weekend as high pressure builds over the West Coast. Saturday's interior high temperatures will range 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to Friday.
The holiday weekend outlook will be warmer and more humid, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure churning in NE KS/SE Nebraska will push an occluded front into western Illinois late tonight and Saturday morning, with a triple point advancing into our SW counties near Springfield by mid-day. Additional storms are then indicated for later afternoon as the warm front reaches into our NE counties. The potential presence of multiple boundaries will also provide a source of low level vorticity, with an occluded, warm and cold fronts in central Illinois. The vort max/low center will continue its northeast track, with the warm frontal zone extended off to the east into the MO bootheel.
626 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Pesky anchored closed low over the Ohio River Valley continues to spread moisture in the form of low clouds into our area. This will result from a closed low rotating northeast from the Central Plains. Look for this closed low to continue lifting northeast across the area Saturday for increased shower/isolated thunder activity.
The upper trof/low in the central Plains will continue to weaken and lift east-northeast overnight with a vort max moving through the base of the mobile trof impacting our region overnight. The upper low/trof will continue to weaken and move northeast of the area and into the Great Lakes on Saturday, with the warm front blasting north through the CWA and ushering in well above normal temperatures. Height rises aloft and weak large scale subsidence are expected in the wake of the departing trof.
301 PM MDT Fri May 22 2020 Upper trough over the Pacific NW will track down into southern Idaho tonight creating a strong S/SW flow across our region.
For the rest of Saturday, hi-res models continue to show the development of afternoon/evening showers over the higher terrain, especially for the west-central Idaho mountains.
A trough will be setting up over the central U. 02Z temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. The overall forecast for the rest of the night is in good shape as the ridging should keep much of the area dry through daybreak. A warm front extending from low pressure over northern Kansas southeast into the lower Ohio Valley will progress northeast into the forecast area late tonight and may serve as a focal point for generating isolated to scattered convection over the lower Wabash Valley prior to daybreak. High moisture paired with decent CAPE and shear values near a warm front could support all types of severe weather. A large trough will then set up over the central U.
An upper level trough is currently making its way through NorCal this afternoon. Upper level ridging will then be building in Saturday and for the weekend.
Upper level trough slowly lifting out of the Ohio valley and into the northeast Friday night and Saturday. weak high pressure over the northeastern Gulf and southeast US will bring warm and and humid conditions into the area.
215 PM PDT Fri May 22 2020 Low pressure will bring breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and showers with a few thunderstorms today mainly for west-central Nevada. Tonight will be chilly with freezing temperatures possible for some valleys.
750 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Mid level ridging will build in over the next several days, bringing an overall decrease in precipitation, along with a significant increase in temperatures. Mid level low pressure will slowly exit Ohio to the east this evening, leaving the mid Ohio Valley with light winds and decreasing clouds. After quick fog/stratus dissipation in the morning, likely to see a dry period through most of Saturday as high pressure builds in. Mid level ridge will build and then close off over the central Appalachians. This will result in warm and humid conditions, but do not expect to be capped off, especially with the center of the high east of the region. This will suppress the ridge and likely result in greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Storms should start initiating over the Laramie Range around 1 to 2 PM, and then move off into the High Plains around 3 PM. Looking for a quiet, coll night in the wake of this system and its associated cold front.
217 PM PDT Fri May 22 2020 An upper level trough of low pressure over the Great Basin will result in cooler temperatures through Saturday, along with gusty winds tonight over the mountains and deserts.
For the shortterm forecast, no changes needed, as we are only expecting to fall into the lower to mid 70s for overnight lows.
Main focus in the near term is compact MCV-enhanced upper level low tracking northeast across the region during the next 12 hours. Based on trends in central Kansas, closer to probably true H5 low center, expect some clearing of clouds in the east to southeast quadrant of main upper low as it moves into the area. Additional risk of heavy rainfall exists, as upper low continues to tap moisture stream from southeast U. Mid-atmospheric ridging in the wake of passage of aforementioned H5 low/MCV will inhibit development during the day. May start to see development by late afternoon as nose of ULJ from northern Rockies system begins suppressing ridging. Convective temperatures are in the low to mid-80s and temperatures, so it will be close.
723 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Unsettled weather will slowly give way to building high pressure over the next several days. Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms with lows tonight around 60 east of the Blue Ridge, mid/upper 50s to the west. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 80s east, mid/upper 70s west. The closed upper low that drove a wet week will make its exit into the Atlantic late Saturday. Weak ridging will begin to set up over our area for the weekend, and we will enter a fairly standard springtime pattern for the rest of this period.
Lows tonight will be quite mild, only falling into the low 70s, potentially mid 70s along the coast, south of the Cape. High pressure axis across the area will lift northward into tomorrow, with low level SE winds becoming E/SE. Favorable boating conditions Saturday with high pressure being the dominant weather feature over central Florida.
403 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Upper level trough slowly lifting out of the Ohio valley and into the northeast Friday night and Saturday. weak high pressure over the northeastern Gulf and southeast US will bring warm and and humid conditions into the area.
Otherwise, it's going to be cooler and wetter tomorrow, especially for the eastern third or so of our CWA as the upper low/trough passes through Montana. 97 A large trough with closed low over the Pacific Northwest will send southwest upper flow over NE Montana tonight and Saturday with continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. Most of this activity will remain east of Opheim, Glasgow, and Jordan, with the highest precipitation totals along the North Dakota and Montana border, south of Sidney.
1042 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Currently - Surface through lower level ridging extends westward across the Florida Peninsula. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain moderate to fresh out of the east due to the ridging to our north. Dew points will generally remain in the low to mid 70s. Ridging across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
For the shortterm forecast, no changes needed, as we are only expecting to fall into the lower to mid 70s for overnight lows. An upper level trough current centered along the West Coast will dig into the Southern Plains through the weekend. The resultant return flow will advect additional deep layer moisture which in combination with increasing upper level support for ascent from the approaching trough will cause chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase.
An upper level trough will remain overhead today with a few light showers this morning transitioning to scattered afternoon showers once daytime heating kicks in.