Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low pressure system that has been impacting much of the plains for the last couple of days is now over western WI with the upper low becoming negatively tilted into eastern MN. Surface ridging has developed over the Rockies extending southeast into OK and TX. Highs will moderate in the upper 50s to low 60s with lows falling back to the low 40s.
Low level ridge axis is across south FL and the approaching cold front to the north is moving through FL panhandle as of mid morning. 5C from a warmer -3. Flow quickly veers more onshore as strong ridge builds in across the southeast U.
233 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Clear skies and moderate west winds continue for the remainder of the afternoon in this cooler post-frontal airmass.
146 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Rain will taper off tonight as a cold front crosses the region. A swath of rain will move east of the region this aftn ahead of an advancing sfc cold front. Significantly drier air rounding the closed low over Lake Superior will fill in behind the front, allowing for more sunshine and create a mini-bump up in afternoon temperature.
157 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 /Updated at 0116 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ Tonight and tomorrow: Northwest flow will continue to bring cool and dry air to the area through tonight as high pressure builds over the area.
Where we see a transition to snow, accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible, with the highest accumulations forecast generally along a corridor that runs from Watford City to Elgin.
342 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 As a cold frontal boundary continues to progress eastward towards the southeastern U. Ridging aloft and subsidence over the peninsula should keep most storms that form today as showers; however, isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out this afternoon, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region where lift will be enhanced. The aforementioned cold frontal boundary is forecast to approach South Florida by Wednesday and stall out over the southern portions of the peninsula late this week.
1149 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure system now centered over WI, with winds finally settling down across the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows fast northwest flow across the region, with a low pressure system along the BC coast. Trailing cold front will push through the area overnight and early Wednesday, bringing some colder air into the area by morning.
Models have been fairly consistent in representing the track of this low moving it from the Mobridge area late tonight to the Huron area Wednesday morning. Precipitation will begin as all rain, but as temps fall below freezing toward morning, rain will transition to snow. The system will also bring additional cloud cover and cooler temperatures on Wednesday across the region.
Then a ridge builds over the region for the next few days.
A swath of rain will continue to move east ahead of an advancing sfc cold front and in conjunction with a shifting upper-level jet providing large-scale ascent. Significantly drier air rounding the closed low over Lake Superior will fill in behind the front, allowing for some sunshine that will create a mini-bump up in afternoon temperature.
405 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A strong cold front will move east of the region tonight with rain ending from west to east.
Wednesday The area will be on the southern side of an area of low pressure. Highs in the lower 50s far northern area, to the mid 60s far southern areas.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX/ No major changes from previous forecast as high pressure settles over the region.
Upper trough axis will swing through the region later today. Highs will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny however temps will likely only reach the low to mid 60s for highs given the cool advection. This should allow for temps to drop off into the upper 30s in the cooler spots and the low 40s elsewhere. Very broad troughing aloft will reside across much of the nation Wed (almost zonal flow), with W to SW flow aloft across the OH Valley. Solutions range from a progressive open trough advancing eastward across the OH Valley Fri and Sat, to a much slower closed low forming across the southwestern U.
919 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A mainly dry weather system will move across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming tonight into early Wednesday bringing a reinforcing push of cooler air.
311 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 The center of an upper level closed low is located over Lake Superior this afternoon, and an associated expansive upper trough remains in place across much of the CONUS. A cold front extending southwest of the low will move through the forecast area during the day bringing a noticeable wind shift.
1135 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb height RAP analysis showed a strong low pressure system over eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin overnight. As this disturbance slowly shifted northeast, ridging persisted along the west coast, keeping the High Plains under northwest flow. Skies were mostly clear across the tri-state region on the backside of the departing trough. This flow helps temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s this afternoon under sunny skies. A cold front pushes across the forecast area on Wednesday, causing a range in high temperatures from the mid 50s in Yuma County, Colorado to the mid 60s in Graham County, Kansas. The upper trough associated with this system swings southeast from the Central Rockies to the Plains, generating light rain chances as early as the mid afternoon hours in eastern Colorado.
317 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Clear and dry conditions will persist across the Midsouth for another couple of days as the result of transient high pressure shifting from East Texas today, over North Louisianatonight, then over central Mississippi/Alabama by tomorrow afternoon.
228 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front is expected to move across the region Wednesday afternoon and night bringing colder and drier air to the area.
226 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon bringing with it a soaking rain to the area. High pressure strengthens over the region on Wednesday with nearly full sunshine. Zonal flow at midweek delivers fair and milder conditions as as high pressure passes off the Mid Atlantic coast and a return southwest flow develops.
322 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected until the approach of weekend low pressure. Rain has shifted east of the ridges with progress of a prefrontal trough.
As the strong upper level low pressure system moves over the Great Lakes slides northeast over through Wednesday, It will drag a cold front across the plains and into the region late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. In advance of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the 60s to near 70 in some locations thanks in part to the southerly winds.
235 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 We are starting to see a few showers along the Nature Coast out ahead of a cold front that will push through central Florida overnight. It looks like it has the upper level support to make it through however is will make a hard stop in south Florida as it runs into the subtropical ridge. This will give us a break from the humidity and will drop our temperatures to around average in the low to mid 80's.
317 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A ridge of high pressure at the surface was situated across the Southern High Plains today. This ridge is progged to move east and southeast the Southern Plains through tonight while low pressure deepens across the Central Plains. Light southerly winds will result in more seasonable low temperatures with values ranging from the low to mid 40s for most areas. Another cold front will usher in cooler air Wednesday night with increasing chances for light precipitation as we move through the night.
Winds will subside by early evening as our stacked low pressure lifts north of Lake Superior.
Lower heights across the southeastern United States will pivot northeast tonight, allowing the mean-layer ridge to rebuild to the west on Wednesday. Meanwhile, high pressure currently centered near the Mississippi River valley will progress quickly to the east.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 No major changes from previous forecast as high pressure settles over the region.
An associated cold front will pass across the area overnight with sctd rain and snow showers developing over the CWA behind it. Not much in the way of snow accumulations expected outside of the higher mtns where about 4-7 inches may fall. A few snow showers around Weds evening then drying out as the upper trough digs southward into Colorado.
While a period of light snow is possible near the Minnesota border Wednesday morning, the majority of the precipitation is expected to be rain as the lowest 1500-2500 ft warm above freezing.
Despite cool advection, temperatures had warmed into the lower 60s across the region. Surface winds are expected to remain light overnight which may preclude frost formation on the ridges. However, the cooler valley spots may see some patchy frost in the most protected areas. Dry and tranquil weather is expected for Wednesday with highs ranging from the lower 60s over the Bluegrass and areas mainly east of US 27/127 to around the mid 60s in the I-65 corridor.
246 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A broad upper low/trough is centered over northern Wisconsin and extends southward to the gulf coast. Another upper trough will begin to dig southward over the northern Rocky Mountains on Wednesday with south to southwest surface winds across West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 High pressure will slide to the south of the area through tonight, keeping a modestly tight pressure gradient across the area, resulting in good mixing today under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be cooler than normal today with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 60s. Southerly winds and some mixing tonight will keep lows in the low to mid 40s, with a few spots across the eastern Ozarks hitting the upper 30s. As the high continues to slide well southeast of the area Wednesday, warm advection on breezy south to southwest winds will push temperatures back up to slightly above seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Given the expected amplification of the eastern Pacific ridge, it seems that the more amplified and somewhat slower solutions of the ECMWF and Canadian models are probably the best way to proceed this afternoon. In general the main player for our region will be a rather potent cold front.
Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, with numbers mainly in the 75 to 80 range. Then, lows tonight back in the 50s look likely, as winds from the south bring warmer air into West Central Texas.
Wednesday will see partly to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures in the 60s.
Global models continue to disagree significantly regarding the development of a surface cold front extending from this feature as it moves into SE Texas this weekend.
During the day on Wednesday, the high will begin to shift east of the area which will enable return flow off of the Gulf of Mexico; moisture will increase in the area as a result. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 70s tomorrow which will be just below normal for this time of year.
This will bring warmer temperatures back into the area Wednesday, topping off in the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon.
On Wednesday, a fast moving low pressure area will move through the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 68 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 65 42 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 65 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 63 34 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Drier air has arrived in the wake of the cold front that progressed through the region yesterday. Lows should be a bit warmer as a result, only dropping into the 40 to 45 degree range.
1257 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Early morning analysis showed a vertically stacked low pressure system continuing to spin over southeast Minnesota/west-central Wisconsin, with light showers wrapping around and into the forecast area. The low will progress to the northeast through the day bringing strong winds with it. Otherwise, expect showers to slowly move off to the northeast through the day as the low continues progress that direction, with the area becoming completely dry by late this evening. Temperatures will also be much cooler behind the low, with highs today in the mid to upper 40s. As far as precip type, expecting mainly rain, though could see a few snowflakes mix in wherever precip is lingering during the evening hours as temperatures cool into the lower to mid 30s.
143 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front will pass through the region this afternoon. Winds will shift westerly behind the cold front and conditions will become breezy into late afternoon.
Cold front will continue to move east across the remainder of southwest Ga and the eastern Fl Big Ben during the next few hours. Much cooler and drier air will usher in behind the front tonight.
/issued 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ Clear and dry conditions will persist across the Midsouth for another couple of days as the result of transient high pressure shifting from East Texas today, over North Louisiana tonight, then over central Mississippi/Alabama by tomorrow afternoon.
Strong westerly winds aloft (55 kts at ridge top levels) will have the potential to mix down into valleys due to this shower activity through the early evening. Then a ridge builds over the region for the next few days.
The center of an upper level closed low is located over Lake Superior this afternoon, and an associated expansive upper trough remains in place across much of the CONUS. A cold front extending southwest of the low will move through the forecast area during the day bringing a noticeable wind shift.
624 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front is now east of the forecast area, with drier and cooler air beginning to push into the region.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will result in a warmup through midweek. Temperatures will peak today and Wednesday with highs in the low 90s across the lower deserts.
A cold front continue to settle south through the region this evening.
825 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon bringing with it a soaking rain to the area. High pressure strengthens over the region on Wednesday with nearly full sunshine. Zonal flow at midweek delivers fair and milder conditions as as high pressure passes off the Mid Atlantic coast and a return southwest flow develops.
This is due to a strong high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley that is moving eastward, while a weaker high pressure is retreating to the northeast. With that being said deep layer ridge along with dry air aloft has suppressed much of the shower potential.
Clear skies and moderate west winds continue for the remainder of the afternoon in this cooler post-frontal airmass.
Preliminary peek at the 00Z TAE sounding shows a very dry atmosphere in the wake of the cold front. Cold front will continue to move east across the remainder of southwest Ga and the eastern Fl Big Bend during the next few hours. Much cooler and drier air will usher in behind the front tonight.
717 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A strong cold front will move east of the region tonight with rain ending from west to east.
839 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon bringing with it a soaking rain to the area. A few isolated showers are located along a surface cold front, moving into central PA this evening. Given some low-level cold advection overnight, lows by daybreak will range from the upper 30s over the northern mountains, to the upper 40s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High pressure strengthens over the region on Wednesday with nearly full sunshine. Zonal flow at midweek delivers fair and milder conditions as as high pressure passes off the Mid Atlantic coast and a return southwest flow develops.
The ongoing forecast is in pretty good shape with high pressure moving in behind the departing cold front. The center of the high will stay to the south and west of the forecast area and expect winds will remain elevated enough to prevent any widespread frost. VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle as dry air and high pressure move in behind the departing front. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 67 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 65 42 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 64 41 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 61 35 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 0.
/issued 246 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ A broad upper low/trough is centered over northern Wisconsin and extends southward to the gulf coast. Another upper trough will begin to dig southward over the northern Rocky Mountains on Wednesday with south to southwest surface winds across West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Northwest flow will continue to bring cool and dry air to the area through tonight as high pressure builds over the area.
A compact open wave will slide through the longwave trough aloft bringing ample lift and modest frontogenesis during the early morning hours. Morning temperatures will be near freezing, although model consensus keeps the surface temperatures a degree or two above freezing for all locations except on the Coteau des Prairies.
Light showers associated with a weak weather disturbance moving through the area today will diminish tonight but bring cooler temperatures into the state for Wednesday.
Wednesday morning, winds are expected to begin to shift to more SRLY flow as high pressure moves EWRD, with another gusty day expected across NRN AR.
A cold front will move into northwestern OK Wednesday afternoon, shifting winds to north. /issued 228 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ A cold front is expected to move across the region Wednesday afternoon and night bringing colder and drier air to the area.
700 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Clearing skies are expected overnight, with lows dropping into the upper 30s inland and the low to mid 40s near Lake Michigan. Partly sunny, breezy, and a little warmer for Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. An upper level low pressure system located north of the Great Lakes continues to provide energy overhead allowing for cloud cover into the first portion of tonight. In areas south of US-30, mixing heights reach 850 mb where temps are around 5C alluding to temps able to reach the low 60s. 10 inch with the storm's progressive nature, a lack of moisture in the low levels and only weak low level moisture flux convergence. With some increased moisture, expect lows to be warmer Wednesday night bottoming out in the 40s.
741 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected until the approach of weekend low pressure. The eve update included the addition of some isolated showers for areas north of Pit as per radar trends of weak convection along the actual cold frontal boundary.
After slightly cooler than normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 60s (versus seasonable norms in the lower 70s), readings at 9 PM have cooled into the low/mid 50s, with WNW winds in the 5-10 mph range.
A cold front continues moving southward through our counties and will continue to do so based on the pressure rise pattern to the north of the front. Winds will turn more north and northwest after cold frontal passage. Expect scattered to numerous showers, mainly snow showers, along and behind the cold front.
VFR conditions through the TAF period as high pressure settles across the region.
However, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest as we move into the Evening hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to blossom across across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and especially overnight as the cold front spreads to the southeast across the region. The bulk of the precipitation is expected behind the cold front in a zone of strong isentropic lift.
323 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure will move from the Gulf Coast today to over the Virginias tonight. We will see increasing south to southwest flow today, resulting in warmer temperatures with seasonal readings. With the high moving well east of our region, models bring a cold front into our region tonight.
The cold front will be just north of the area at the end of the forecast period. /issued 246 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ A broad upper low/trough is centered over northern Wisconsin and extends southward to the gulf coast. Another upper trough will begin to dig southward over the northern Rocky Mountains on Wednesday with south to southwest surface winds across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. The previously mentioned upper trough will dig southward on Thursday and will bring a cold front through the area. The NAM12 and GFS are faster with the front than the ECMWF which has the upper trough lagging behind a little but generally expect temperatures to decrease throughout the day. This front will result in significantly cooler temperatures for Thursday and an increased chance of precipitation for the eastern CWA.
However, a dry front will move through the area today and bring cooler air back to central Illinois beginning Thursday. A low pressure are will quickly move out of the northern plains today and track across northern IL into the Great Lakes region by this evening. An associated trailing cold front will move across the CWA this evening, ushering in cooler air that will last for the rest of the week. Expecting any precip associated with this system to be confined across northern IL near the track of the low, with the cold front being dry for now. The cold front will push south of the area Thursday, but the associated mid level trough will slowly move northeast toward the area for the last part of the week.
The cold frontal passage this evening will push temps down into the 30s in most areas overnight. Cooler than average temps are expected through the period.
418 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected until the approach of weekend low pressure. Dry weather, limited cloud coverage, and temperatures right around normal is expected today as high pressure builds in south of the forecast area.
132 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 High pressure will build tonight and then persist through Thursday.
337 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Dry high pressure will prevail over the region through Thursday.
317 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Latest water vapor imagery shows a compact 700mb-500mb low pressure circulating through McKenzie county, Golden Valley, and Billings counties. The mid to upper level low circulation will reach the southern border around 12z, bringing an end to the strongest forcing and instability. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s.
The aforementioned high pressure center wl cont to shift EWD today, Allowing south winds to incrs ovr the FA. With abundant sunshine, expect high temps to top out in the lower and mid 70s. Low lvl moisture return wl stay to our W today as AR rmns on the WRN periphery of the ridge. Heading into Thu, a new elongated upper lvl trof is fcst to drop SEWD, eventually bcmg aligned fm the Nrn Plains back into the 4- corners region.
Another dry cold front will cool temperatures Thursday, with northwest to northeast surface winds Thursday.
The center of an upper level closed low is located over Lake Superior this afternoon, and an associated expansive upper trough remains in place across much of the CONUS. A cold front extending southwest of the low will move through the forecast area during the day bringing a noticeable wind shift. The NAM and GFS bring an open wave trough over the CWA Thursday night, while the Canadian and Euro develop a closed upper low over the TX panhandle.
Dry advection in the low levels and the exit of the trough axis should result in the cloud clearing this morning, with sunny skies for most of the day. Highs will range from the lower 60s north to upper 60s south. Tonight, as high pressure settles over the area, clear and calm conditions will allow temps to drop into the mid/upper 30s in most locations.