Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
330 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front will cross to the East Coast this evening leading in cooler air tonight and dry weather for Thursday.
Despite cold air advection during the day on Thursday, abundant sunshine should allow temperatures and some warm air advection ahead of an approaching clipper system should allow temperatures to reach the lower 70s in more locations.
Northerly flow is dominant on the weather map across the forecast area on the east side of the ridge. This cooler and drier air has filtered into the region slowly eroding the northern edge of the morning stratus.
With subsidence moving in thanks to the ridge of high pressure currently building over the western CONUS, the remainder of the short term forecast (tonight and tomorrow) calls for clearing skies, warming temperatures, and dry conditions. As the ridge slides eastward over the Intermountain West, quiet conditions prevail Thursday.
Looking at the current 500mb RAP analysis, the ridge is positioned over the West Coast with with a disturbance present over the Rockies and already helping to kick off storms in eastern Colorado along a surface cold front. However, the midlevel disturbance will kick across the Panhandles later this evening along with the cold front passage, which will provide additional lifting and cooling to any weak capping inversion in place right above the surface across the northern Panhandles. Temperatures are warming into the low to mid 70s today with breezy south southwest winds. The surface front is not bringing with it a ton of cooler air, so temperatures are not expected to be colder than last night with lows still in the 40s to lower 50s.
A quiet day has been unfolding in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Temperatures have warmed into the low to to mid 80s under clear skies. Mid to upper level ridging will shift into the region with high pressure taking control at the surface. Otherwise, temps will fall into the low to mid 60s tonight. Tomorrow looks to be a bit warmer than today with highs reaching the mid 90s across the Brush Country and mid 80s along the coast.
kinematics will be aided by an impulse descending an upper ridge over the western US potentially leading to a few stronger storms.
205 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 A ripple in the upper level flow was spinning into western MN early this afternoon, and coupled with some warm air advection in the low levels, was spawning an area of showers across southwest MN. Upper level trough over the great lakes will slowly make its way east over the weekend, with upper level ridging then edging in from the west for the start of the new work week.
South southwest winds will turn to the north northeast behind a cold front this afternoon/evening.
Cold front will be located to the north of the forecast area through this evening, as an upper wave moves northeast across SE GA. Precipitation chances should end by midnight Thursday evening, as high pressure builds in from the west northwest.
These clouds have kept temperatures lower than expected, mainly in the low to mid 60s. An upper-level trough will dig into the midwest through tomorrow. Low pressure crosses ESE-ward from Iowa to Ohio, dragging a cold into Southern Illinois mid-morning Thursday, crossing the Quad State through the rest of the day and early evening.
400 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Column drying is underway with system relative isentropic downglide working through the mid-levels on the periphery of an anticyclone evident within the 294-306 Kt layer. Minimal thermal gradient expected, except for areas downstream of Saginaw Bay and along the Huron shorelines given the influence of slightly cooler SSTs. Flow above 10 kft temporarily becomes zonal after midnight as Southeast MI resides between the stationary upper low over the Southern Hudson Bay taiga to the north and a strengthening southern stream jet to the south. Increased PoPs to a mix of Likely and Categorical Thursday afternoon given the consensus for a period of steady cool rain with the passage of the trough.
255 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Dry and cooler weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure brings the next rain chance late on Thursday. Northwest flow will persist through the evening, though building high pressure will limit any additional shower activity. Building high pressure will keep the region dry on Thursday but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
1137 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A bit more rain or drizzle into this afternoon ahead of a cold front, then drier air sweeping across the region from west to east will bring clearing skies and cool conditions later tonight.
211 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
323 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front is currently pushing through northern and western GA this afternoon with winds shifting from W to NW/NNW with its passage. Lows will be a good 10 degrees or so lower on Thursday morning thanks to CAA behind the cold front. Thursday highs will also generally trend cooler than today -- in the lower 70s to lower 80s, with lower to mid-60s in the higher terrain of northeast GA.
The Plateau area will be in the lower 40s for many of those areas.
1201 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 (Today and tonight) High pressure has settled in across much of the Southern Plains this morning, resulting in light winds. As the day progresses, this area of high pressure should start to push eastward, allowing winds to become easterly, then southeasterly. Overall, most places should see high temperatures about 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday. Areas such as the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley should reach the low 80s, where winds will be nearly southerly and return flow will be occurring. Despite the slight wind shift, this should have little to no effect on low temperatures, which will be 5-7 degrees warmer than this morning's minimums.
Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s for most of the area, and slightly warmer along the Rio Grande Plains in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 214 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure will provide decreasing clouds and cool weather through the rest of the day. An area of low pressure will provide the next chance of showers late Thursday as chilly temperatures prevail through the end of the week. For Thursday, clouds will increase as a mid-level disturbance drops into the back side of the trough. Expecting considerable cloudiness to keep high temperatures down in the low to mid 60s. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
137 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure builds this evening with gradually clearing skies.
315 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
154 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front will cross the region today with a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm east of the Blue Ridge. Behind the front brings a return to cooler and drier conditions for Thursday.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ The short-term forecast will begin quietly for the Ark-La-Tex as a ridge axis approaches from the north and winds continue to slacken.
Currently, a cold front moving thru E/SE portions of the region is triggering a line of scattered rw/trw.
Another weaker wave is currently across northern North Dakota and will continue riding down the ridge that slopes to our west. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 30s. Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday as the western ridge axis nudges into central Montana.
High pressure was in the process of settling over the region early this morning. This brought clear skies, light winds and cooler temperatures. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 40s shortly after midnight with morning lows expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the most part. Overnight lows will once again be cooler, in the lower to middle 40s, but cloud cover should keep temperatures from cooler much more. The rain should exit the region during the later afternoon with high pressure building into the area for Thursday night.
High pressure will move over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys today. Chances of showers will spread into our northwest counties late Thursday morning as the cold front enters our area, then showers and some thunderstorms will become widespread across the PAH fa Thursday afternoon as the front moves on through. High temperatures will be couple of degrees warmer than today.
629 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 A ripple in the upper level flow was spinning into western MN early this afternoon, and coupled with some warm air advection in the low levels, was spawning an area of showers across southwest MN. Upper level trough over the great lakes will slowly make its way east over the weekend, with upper level ridging then edging in from the west for the start of the new work week.
A relatively straight forward forecast tonight with drier and cooler conditions than normal expected. Temperatures are cooling as forecast so far tonight and the previous forecast package looks on track into the morning hours with just a few clouds around and lows falling into the lower and middle 50s F. Northerly flow is dominant on the weather map across the forecast area on the east side of the ridge. This cooler and drier air has filtered into the region slowly eroding the northern edge of the morning stratus.
/Issued 254 PM PDT Wed May 5 2021/ Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger winds Thursday along with isolated thunderstorms and blowing dust well east of Highway 395.
1030 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Currently - The weakening western flank of an Atlantic ridge extends across South Florida. Deep layered ridge is aligned aloft and this evenings sounding indicated quite a lot of dry air above ~925 mb. Short Term Update - Weak ridging will remain across South Florida keeping winds light out of the east to southeast. Deep layered ridging will also continue to dominate and forecast soundings indicate the lower levels may dry out further and inhibition may increase some. A ridge across South Florida will keep winds light out of the east to southeast on Keys waters through the overnight period.
A cold front is currently pushing through northern and western GA this afternoon with winds shifting from W to NW/NNW with its passage. Lows will be a good 10 degrees or so lower on Thursday morning thanks to CAA behind the cold front. Thursday highs will also generally trend cooler than today -- in the lower 70s to lower 80s, with lower to mid-60s in the higher terrain of northeast GA.
657 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Isolated showers or a thunderstorm is possible ahead of a cold front that will cross the coast tonight, then stall offshore.
At the surface, winds will diminish with time as high pressure settles in from the north, with the lowest speeds expected around west/northern areas. Models remain in good agreement showing well amplified northwesterly flow in place, thanks to a ridge axis extending through the Rockies and into portions of southern Canada.
949 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Wx map shows weak high pressure continuing to ridge across the region, with diminishing northeast winds, calm across areas north of I-10. Otherwise, dry and cool weather will prevail, with temperatures THU morning in the mid/upper 50s across interior SE TX and Central LA to the lower/mid 60s I-10 to the coast.
however, a backdoor cold front will quickly slide down the eastern plains this evening and overnight. Cooler air is forecast to move into eastern portions of the state tonight and Thursday.
Cold front swinging through tomorrow will bring increasing westerly winds becoming 16-22g24-32kts by the afternoon.
842 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front moving through this evening will be followed by building high pressure building later tonight through Thursday.
Quiet night across the mid state, with cooler lows in the 40s expected.
741 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northwest Ontario with a broad trough through the central CONUS. Otherwise, even with partly to mostly sunny skies, with the cool airmass in place temps have struggled through the 40s north and into the lower 50s south. Thursday, with steep sfc-700 mb lapse rates similar today, scattered/isolated showers should develop with daytime heating close to Lake Michigan where the low level convergence is strongest.
1017 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front will push through the area tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region late week with cooler weather this weekend. The precipitation is located pretty much near the cold front which should advance offshore after midnight with much drier air surging in on gusty NW/N winds. Kept the low PoPs in for the next few hours, then lows by morning fall into the 55 to 60 degree range. Thursday will see weak high pressure form behind the front over northeastern North Carolina which will keep conditions cool and dry with high temperatures topping out in the low 70s inland with mid 60s along the coast. High pressure will briefly be in control Thursday.
1050 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front moving through this evening will be followed by building high pressure building later tonight through Thursday.
743 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
949 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend with another chance of rain late Thursday with the next low pressure system. Broad upper-level troughing and cold advection will maintain cool weather. Building high pressure will keep the region dry on Thursday but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
/issued 400 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021/ High pressure ridging west from the Atlantic Ocean across south Florida will maintain the warm and humid conditions through Thursday with southwest to west winds persisting.
Dry air in the lower levels may allow for a few snow flakes to mix in with the rain showers as the temp and dewpoint zip to the wetbulb temp. Otherwise, clouds will help to keep temps a bit warmer across central and east-central WI, with temperature falling into the mid and upper 30s. Temperatures near Lake Michigan may be kept a bit cooler, due to the scattered showers and increased cloud cover in the afternoon.
A cold front will move into the area around 12Z shifting the winds momentarily out of the e to ne. /issued 157 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ Fairly quiet weather will continue the next couple days before a somewhat more active pattern brings storm chances and more cold fronts to the region. A broad upper trough positioned over the eastern half of the CONUS will shift east as ridging builds in from the west.
935 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
A broad area of low pressure will approach the West Coast tonight. A sharp contrast to the valleys which are actually slightly warmer today than yesterday with several areas in the low to mid 90s. Today should be the hottest day inland as gradients start to trend onshore tomorrow ahead of the next trough that is just now hitting the Pac NW.
655 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Dry and cooler weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure brings the next rain chance late on Thursday. Broad upper-level troughing and cold advection will maintain cool weather. Building high pressure will keep the region dry on Thursday but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
/issued 157 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Drier air will continue filter in through the short term as high pressure builds across the area. Tonight, lows will range from the low 60s north to 70s south. Thursday evening winds begin to turn more easterly with overnight lows in the low 60s north to upper 60s south.
DDV (Issued 224 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: The upper level low over northeast Manitoba will slowly shift southeast into eastern Ontario Thursday night.
602 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 A fast moving upper level disturbance and cold front will push SE through the state Thu afternoon.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as SE Texas remains within an area of high pressure. Today was an absolutely fantastic late-Spring day across Southeast Texas as high pressure provided ample sunshine, low humidity, and slightly below normal temperatures. These pleasant conditions will make a reappearance Thursday (albeit slightly warmer) as the high pressure dominates the weather. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than last night with minimum temperatures getting down into the mid 50s up north and low 60s along and south of I-10.
HRRR model showing quite a number of storms along the cold front that will move into the area by mid afternoon and exit the southeast counties during the early evening. As the storms developing along the cold front begin producing cold pools or localized downbursts, the uncapped region down stream may see a few storms developing in advance of the gust front. Models suggest the cold front stalls out over north central Kansas into west central Kansas this evening , and with the moisture left over from the exiting storms, the later evening and overnight could possible see some fog developing despite light southwest winds - a mesoscale problem better diagnosed later this evening.
Prefrontal convection is expected into late Thu evening with the highest coverage along the Treasure Coast in the early evening before much of the activity pushes east over the Atlantic through the late night hours.
825 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
254 PM PDT Wed May 5 2021 Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger winds Thursday along with isolated thunderstorms and blowing dust well east of Highway 395.
We begin the extended with our area still in the base of a broad trough stretched across much of the eastern third of the CONUS.
At the upper levels, models currently show broad troughing over the eastern CONUS as upper ridging builds over the west coast and over the Rockies by Thursday. Given this low level shift, expect clouds to clear up this evening and winds to lighten up. Unfortunately this will also make for another cold evening with lows tonight near freezing throughout the forecast area. With the return to high pressure, dry conditions are also expected for the remainder of the work week.
913 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Isolated showers or a thunderstorm is possible ahead of a cold front that will cross the coast tonight, then stall offshore.
1031 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
Northwesterly winds continue to weaken this evening amidst building high pressure beneath zonal flow aloft. Mostly VFR through the period as drier high pressure advects into the region from the west. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 72 48 69 47 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 68 47 65 46 / 0 10 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 69 46 65 45 / 0 10 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 65 44 60 41 / 10 10 30 30 10.
Still expecting strong cold front passage tomorrow afternoon/evening with increasing westerly winds and a few showers and isolated storms across the east. Cold front swinging through Thursday will bring increasing westerly winds becoming 16-22g24-32kts by the afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region overnight but then begin shifting to the east Thursday as an upper level trough approaches the coast. This will place the forecast area under an increasing southwest flow Thursday with a cold frontal passage expected late afternoon through early night. The upper level trough will then move over the region on Friday providing much cooler temperatures and some showers.
Most of that has struggled to reach the ground with abundant dry air in the low levels, but a more "robust" shower was able to produce some light rain around Salina early this afternoon, perhaps due to enough precipitation loading for a few showers to reach the surface. While we should see decent insolation from clearing skies, the cooler air behind the front will keep up on the cooler side again with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Heading into Friday, the upper ridge breaks down with a few embedded waves that could lead to small chances of precip in the morning, as well as in the evening and overnight with a strengthening LLJ. The WAA during the day leads to slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, with mild overnight temps in the 50s.
This is close to the guidance blend and produced lows in the lower 30s in many areas. This forecast is slightly warmer than the guidance blend both day and night. Clear skies Thursday and strong warm air advection Thursday night are the basis for the warmer forecast. The models appear to be struggling with the fate of an upper low circulating in the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon.
Cold front will move into far northeast Oklahoma around 12Z, pushing to near a MLC/FSM line by 18Z.
that will taper off Friday night with a few wet snowflakes mixing in across the higher terrain. Behind a cold front and within weak cold air advection aloft clouds are slowly thinning from the northwest this morning. A pool of cold air aloft will keep early Spring chill across our region today with highs in the low to mid 50s. Though only a few degrees warmer than yesterday, the warm sunshine will make the day feel more tolerable than yesterday. The rain showers will be slow to push eastward as the upper level trough sharpens tonight, with rain remaining west of the Genesee Valley through daybreak.
A complimentary high pressure follows the wave pushing out clouds for another sunny day on Friday.
With subsidence moving in thanks to the ridge of high pressure currently building over the western CONUS, the remainder of the short term forecast (tonight and tomorrow) calls for clearing skies, warming temperatures, and dry conditions. As the ridge slides eastward over the Intermountain West, quiet conditions prevail Thursday. Warming temperatures in the short term approach 10-15 degrees above normals across almost all of the CWA thanks to the ridge and associated WAA. A ridge of high pressure will shift east of the Continental Divide on Friday morning.
With some high clouds tonight, lows should remain cool, but be about 3-5 degrees warmer than this morning.
At the surface, winds will diminish with time as high pressure settles in from the north, with the lowest speeds expected around west/northern areas. Models remain in good agreement showing well amplified northwesterly flow in place, thanks to a ridge axis extending through the Rockies and into portions of southern Canada. Expecting highs back in the 60s for Thursday, a touch warmer for Friday in the 70s.
1253 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend with another chance of rain tonight with a crossing cold front. Building high pressure will keep the region dry today but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
Deepening upper- level trough along with a surface frontal boundary coming from our northwest will allow clouds to slowly begin to increase through the day.
112 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid level ridging over Texas will provide subsidence aloft. At the surface, high pressure continues to build southward today before sliding eastward on Friday. Tonight will be mild with lows generally in the lower 60s across the northern Ranchlands to mid to upper 60s to around 70 in the Rio Grade Valley and along the coast.