Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
336 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Overall pattern across the region has a weak trough moving through the region with a closed low over Nebraska that's tracking slowly east-northeast. The weak trough, aided by light upslope flow and ample low level moisture, has supported some light drizzle/rain across the region. Additionally, with the low strata deck across the UP, temps have largely bottomed out in the high 30s away from the lakeshores and near 40 by the water. Medium range deterministic models are in agreement with a low pressure system quickly tracking through the Lower Midwest today and the trailing upper low over southern Wisconsin by this afternoon. But, forecast soundings indicate much drier air in the lower levels already by this afternoon as subsidence overspreads the area in a switch to an Omega block pattern.
1214 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days temperatures remaining above normal.
Otherwise, upper level and surface ridging build into the region today, with soundings and RH time sections indicating lifting/decreasing clouds across the area.
126 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days with temperatures above normal for early May.
High clouds over southeastern SD and portions of western MN are hiding breaks in the lower deck. Low pressure was sliding across eastern MO and a broad area of low pressure was organizing across western MT and western WY.
1141 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Seasonable temperatures are expected over the course of the week; thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow with crossing low pressure. Dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures will continue the overnight under high pressure. Moisture and warm advection will ramp up early Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Showers and elevated storms should develop by late morning/early afternoon with a warm front. for storms ahead and/or along the cold front.
304 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A weak area of low pressure will exit off the southern New England coastline today. Canadian high pressure will follow for the end of the week and over the weekend, with low pressure passing well south of the region. Low pressure will continue to exit off the southern New England coastline today. This system will have more moisture associated with it than today's area of low pressure.
1240 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 High pressure will slowly exit to the east into Tuesday.
/issued 951 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022/ As of 9:45 PM CDT, the warm frontal boundary remains to the north of our county warning area along the Ouachita Mountains, with a line of severe thunderstorms over southern and central Oklahoma that will continue southward overnight.
Cooler and cloudy today with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s across most of the area. Dry and warmer this weekend. Increased cloud cover along with the cooler airmass will keep high temperatures this afternoon in the upper 50s into the mid 60s across most of the area. Some locations in south-central Missouri may be able to get into the low 70s before the front pushes through.
The low level winds will switch to a easterly direction tonight which would draw low level moisture back to the west, and low clouds should fill back in over the area. This will cause a warm front and associated rich Gulf of Mexico moisture to lift back northward from Texas into Oklahoma. Looks like the warm front will not make as far north this time around, and be situated south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Deep moisture transport over-running the warm front will keep Kansas in an elevated environment with skinny CAPE sounding profiles.
327 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A summer-like air mass and upper-level ridging will dominate the weather during the work week.
(Today and Tonight) Cold front will clear western AR and SE OK by early morning and a dry and seasonably cool day will prevail.
403 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Overall pattern across the region has a weak trough moving through the region with a closed low over Nebraska that's tracking slowly east-northeast. The weak trough, aided by light upslope flow and ample low level moisture, has supported some light drizzle/rain across the region. Additionally, with the low strata deck across the UP, temps have largely bottomed out in the high 30s away from the lakeshores and near 40 by the water. Medium range deterministic models are in agreement with a low pressure system quickly tracking through the Lower Midwest today and the trailing upper low over southern Wisconsin by this afternoon. But, forecast soundings indicate much drier air in the lower levels already by this afternoon as subsidence overspreads the area in a switch to an Omega block pattern.
(Today and tonight) All of the precipitation has ended over our forecast area with the cold front generally south of the Red River now. By late tonight into early Wed morning, a mid to upper closed low is expected to be over CO, with increasing SW flow aloft over the Southern Plains.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered just south of Bermuda with the ridge axis extending eastward across the FL/GA border.
While a bit cooler than normal, it turned out to be quite a nice day. Light and variable winds, coupled with temperatures in the low to and upper 50s, feels quite nice.
303 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022 A pressure trough located across the central portion of North Dakota will continue to veer winds out of the east to southeast. Upper level ridging is going to center over the Northern Plain this afternoon leading to slightly warm temperatures.
435 AM PDT Tue May 3 2022 Today will be a little cooler with coastal low clouds extending inland onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains this morning.
South winds will be gusty around 25KT at times as a cold front approaches. The cold front will arrive after 00Z with winds becoming WNW and cigs dropping to MVFR area wide.
755 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later today as a low pressure system tracks through the Ohio River Valley.
Mosaic 88D was showing precip activity was gradually exiting eastward with migration of associated upper level low. Meanwhile, a closed low was situated over the central Great Basin. At the surface, strong low pressure was situated over western MO with cool high pressure building in from the north. An upper ridge build in from the west today will aid with dry but cool conditions over the region. As the low moves out across the central High Plains increasing synoptic scale lift via DPVA will enhance precip development within the warm sector from about KS to western NE to southwest SD.
510 AM MDT Tue May 3 2022 Current surface map places high pressure into the central Dakotas with low over the central Rockies. Compact upper low tracks across the central Rockies today then into the plains tonight. Thermal profiles support a bit of snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Flat ridge sets up across the Northern Plains for the end of the week. transitioning to southwest flow this weekend as deep trough carves out over the western CONUS.
/JNE/ Today and Tonight: A cold front will be within proximity of ArkLaMiss today however it is expected to stall. While mid and high level flow remain weaker across the Lower Mississippi Valley, an isolated strong thunderstorm can't be ruled out across the Delta region during this afternoon.
As the low exits Ohio to the northeast, a cold front will cross the region and any showers lingering over the south will come to a quick end this evening. High pressure in the Great Lakes region will then prevail for Wednesday, keeping a cool northerly flow over the region that will drop temperatures slightly below normal. The influx of cooler air will create a lower stratus deck overnight, and push low temperatures into the lower 50s in most areas, some upper 40s to the northwest and mid 50s to the southeast. Any clear skies on Wednesday will fill in relatively quickly as the cold air being pushed in on northerly winds keeps highs in the low to mid 60s.
Dry weather returns for Wednesday with highs in the lower 60s, except cooler near Lake Michigan.
First, temperatures this afternoon will trend warmer by about 10 degrees compared to yesterday. On Wednesday an upper ridge of high pressure moves overhead, and temperatures warm further to about 15 degrees above normal. Warmer valleys west of the Cascades including will likely (75 percent chance for Medford) reach 80 degrees.
Though an additional mid-level trough will swing through this afternoon and could aid in storm development along the cold front. High temperatures today will range from the low 70s to the northwest and mid 80s across the southeast. We will get a brief respite overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday as weak upper ridging builds into the region ahead of a more pronounced system. Ridging will lift northeast during the afternoon on Wednesday and southwesterly flow will start to increase ahead of the next system.
The 12z sounding sampled near normal moisture, with most of it confined to the lower levels. With mostly sunny skies along the island chain, temperatures have already been able to climb into the lower 80s. Dewpoints are now in the lower 70s, making for a sticky start to the day. High pressure centered over the Western Atlantic will slide east and weaken in response to an upper level trough moving across the eastern U.
915 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 High pressure continues across the area with a SE flow in place this morning. High pressure continues an east to southeast flow over the waters for the next couple of days, with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast each day.
The sea breeze will be more diffused, at least initially along the coast since the low-level southeasterly flow is deeper (extends up through 700mb). The highest coverage of storms will be across the interior peninsula, thus TEMPO groups were added to inland terminals.
The passage of a cold front will usher in north winds and cooler temperatures today.
As the low pressure center to our south continues propagating eastward, the weather in our region will remain rather uneventful. The presence of the sun later today will allow for warmer temperatures than we have been experiencing.
Progressive pattern will have an upper ridge with cool high pressure at the surface move across the region today. By Wednesday, the closed upper low will exit the southern Rockies and amplify forcing over Nebraska with showers through Wednesday afternoon, and step upper level lapse rates will be able to support a few rumbles of thunder across central and eastern Nebraska into Wednesday night.
the cold front will drop SE into central/SERN sections of the state by this afternoon. then lift back north as a warm front Wed into Wed night as flow aloft transitions to the SW over the region.
Drier and warmer conditions for most on Wednesday, though a weak warm front may clip the northern and western portions of the area with some light rain.
622 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022 (Today and Tonight) Cold front will clear western AR and SE OK by early morning and a dry and seasonably cool day will prevail.
447 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022 Today and Tonight: A cold front will be within proximity of ArkLaMiss today however it is expected to stall. While mid and high level flow remain weaker across the Lower Mississippi Valley, an isolated strong thunderstorm can't be ruled out across the Delta region during this afternoon.
302 AM MDT Tue May 3 2022 Upper low over southern Utah in the early morning hours with wide diffluent flow over our western zones. Rain showers will otherwise be found at the lower elevations. Three to five inches of snow is possible in the higher elevations of the Big Horns for the event. Dry and warmer weather will prevail by Wednesday afternoon across much of the CWA.
06z data has the main low in western Missouri with a warm front running east across southern Illinois. Tonight quiet, dry but chilly conditions will be seen as high pressure quickly moves into the Midwest and clouds break up. We'll have Wednesday, a dry day, with a bit of sun, and highs in the lower 60s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid-level ridge of high pressure builds across Mexico through Wednesday as the next trough works into the Plains. As low pressure deepens across the Plains again into Wednesday afternoon, expect southeasterly winds to ramp up once again with Wind Advisory conditions likely across the lower to mid valley. Temperatures are expected to generally remain in the low 90s with mid to upper 70s overnight.
Although the current expected track of the systems suggest low chances of precipitation for northeast Montana, the high uncertainty regarding the system for late in the week expands the probabilities. Upper low moving out of southern Idaho this morning is expected dip southward toward Kansas. Lee/inverted trof over central Montana will keep the southeast winds strong enough for Lake Wind Advisory for most of the day, with the strongest winds toward the east.
617 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022 (Today and tonight) All of the precipitation has ended over our forecast area with the cold front generally south of the Red River now. By late tonight into early Wed morning, a mid to upper closed low is expected to be over CO, with increasing SW flow aloft over the Southern Plains.
High temperatures for today are expected to reach into the upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower 80s along the coastline. At the surface, high pressure will be centered just south of Bermuda with the ridge axis extending eastward across the FL/GA border.
734 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Overall pattern across the region has a weak trough moving through the region with a closed low over Nebraska that's tracking slowly east-northeast. The weak trough, aided by light upslope flow and ample low level moisture, has supported some light drizzle/rain across the region. Additionally, with the low strata deck across the UP, temps have largely bottomed out in the high 30s away from the lakeshores and near 40 by the water. Medium range deterministic models are in agreement with a low pressure system quickly tracking through the Lower Midwest today and the trailing upper low over southern Wisconsin by this afternoon. But, forecast soundings indicate much drier air in the lower levels already by this afternoon as subsidence overspreads the area in a switch to an Omega block pattern.
A broken band of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to push southward into Central Texas early this morning, ahead of a cold front now extending from roughly Lampasas to Waco to Athens.
A closed low is circulating over south central and East Central Idaho. The center of the Low appears to be just south of Lemhi county. Precipitation will wrap around this low as far north as west central Montana. This low will progress southeastward into Wyoming during the day. Moisture, cooler air and unstable conditions behind the low will work to bring scattered showers across west central Montana and along the Continental Divide. A high pressure ridge will nose its way into the region tonight.
The surface cold front will remain stalled just northwest of the area as the aforementioned wave pulls away from the area. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A cold front will be within proximity of ArkLaMiss today however it is expected to stall. While mid and high level flow remain weaker across the Lower Mississippi Valley, an isolated strong thunderstorm can't be ruled out across the Delta region during this afternoon.
and Wednesday Low pressure was moving through Missouri early this morning. Showers will taper off from NW to SE during the late morning and early afternoon, with the arrival of high pressure and drier air leading to partial clearing in the mid to late afternoon. High temperatures should reach the upper 40s to middle 50s, except slightly cooler near Lake Michigan. High pressure will bring mostly clear skies tonight into Wednesday. Decreasing winds and a dry air mass will result in cool temperatures tonight, with lows ranging from the middle to upper 20s northwest to the lower to middle 30s elsewhere.
/issued 412 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid-level ridge of high pressure builds across Mexico through Wednesday as the next trough works into the Plains. As low pressure deepens across the Plains again into Wednesday afternoon, expect southeasterly winds to ramp up once again with Wind Advisory conditions likely across the lower to mid valley. Temperatures are expected to generally remain in the low 90s with mid to upper 70s overnight.
Steady southeast flow and plenty of low level moisture will allow quick re-formation of the low MVFR deck within an hour or two of sunset, which should continue through an hour or two after sunrise before lifting to MVFR once again.
Mild and Spring-like conditions interrupted by wetter and The low pressure system that brought rain and snow to the region is digging southeastward towards Utah and Colorado this afternoon.
More thunderstorms are then expected Wednesday night as the cold front moves south across the Panhandles.
359 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 An upper trough and closed low will move into Wyoming and western Colorado tonight. The upper low is forecast to move into western Kansas late Wednesday night, with likely POPs forecast across the southwestern half of the area.
340 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Ridging from Hudson Bay high pressure will be building over the area from the west and north tonight into Wednesday. Under an onshore northeast flow on Wednesday, max temps will range from the cooler 40s near the Lake Superior shore to the 50s inland.
The biggest issue will be timing the low clouds clearing, and this update has slowed that some while still showing a diminishing trend mid to late afternoon. This will influence the high temperatures and those have been decreased some in response.
258 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 As of 2 PM, the upper level low was ever so slowly moving across the CWA. Tonight, the upper low will move off to the east, with lingering light rain or drizzle coming to an end by early evening and overall improving conditions as the night progresses. Wednesday, high pressure will be moving across the area resulting in light east winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Temps right now range from near 40 over far eastern areas to the lower 50s over portions of northeast WY and southwest SD where there has been lots of sunshine this morning. Current surface map places high pressure into the central Dakotas with low over the central Rockies. Compact upper low tracks across the central Rockies today then into the plains tonight. Thermal profiles support a bit of snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Flat ridge sets up across the Northern Plains for the end of the week. transitioning to southwest flow this weekend as deep trough carves out over the western CONUS.
Some development has occurred along a southward propagating cold frontal boundary to the north of our area, but the movement of this boundary has stalled over the past few hours and additional progress appears unlikely at this time. With upper ridging taking hold over the South Central CONUS tomorrow, convective development should be limited by the presence of a subsidence inversion. With overcast skies developing overnight again tomorrow, low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s return to the area.
Cool high pressure will shift off to the east tonight. The best moisture advection will be across the central and eastern counties, so have the highest pops for these locations.
Cold temperatures are in place over all of Southeast Michigan with surface temperatures of 48 degrees in Bad Axe and the lower 50s across southern Lenawee/Monroe counties.
Our next shot at showers and storms comes late this afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau as the cold front draws closer. A cold front moves through overnight and into tomorrow. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 83 61 87 66 / 50 30 0 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 80 58 85 64 / 70 40 0 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 63 80 57 84 63 / 60 30 0 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 77 53 81 60 / 60 50 0 30 50.
Its trailing cold front, currently stretching northeast to southwest through southern Illinois, will continue moving eastward until it moves east of the CWA around 5 to 6z tonight. This combined with surface dew points in the low to mid 60s will help increase DCAPE values to near 1,000 J/kg. Tonight, high pressure will usher in west to northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 50s. Tomorrow, upper ridging will try to scatter clouds south of the Kentucky parkways, but northern winds will hold highs to the mid 60s to low 70s.
(Today and tonight) Cold front slowing its progress as it moves across the area, but should make it down to around I-10 before stalling and lifting north later today. A little cooler today behind the front, especially across the Big Country with highs remaining in the 70s. Main question continues to be chances for convection the next 24 hours, with the high-res CAM's generally showing a much different story than the more medium and long range models like the GFS and ECMWF.
344 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 Warmer and dry conditions through this week with highs in the upper 60s and possible the lower 70s in the end of the week. No precipitation for us with this low.
300 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 (Issued 300 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low pressure passing south and east of WI will continue to shift away tonight. The influence of ridging is expected continue into Wednesday night as the next system holds off to our west.
Convection will be suppressed tomorrow owing to the aforementioned ridging with only a few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across the Hwy 82 corridor in closer proximity to the stalled boundary.
Wednesday will see the low level thermal field warm a touch, but should not be that different from today.
Cool high pressure ridge will extend into Lower Michigan in the low's wake and scattered frost is expected across the northern and central interior zones with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
The sea breezes are expected to converge slightly east of the I-75 corridor today, which is where the highest precipitation chances will be.
The cold, moist upper low was in eastern Idaho early this morning headed southeastward into Utah. Tonight through Wednesday night will be dry and warmer as a Pacific upper ridge comes inland and through our CWA.
336 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Wednesday.
Right now scattered clouds are likely, and this may keep temperatures on the cooler side in the low to mid 50s. These clouds are associated with a low pressure system that is likely to remain south of the region. A split flow regime is in place to start the period with the polar front jet crossing the southern Canadian provinces, and an upper low is in place over the southwester region of CONUS.
311 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Low pressure will approach from the west on Wednesday. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday night, as a coastal low passes well to the south.
833 AM PDT Tue May 3 2022 Warmer and drier weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.
By the weekend, an anomalous upper low will settle southward along the Mid- Atlantic coast bringing a period of damp and unseasonably cool temperatures to the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon A warm front will lift north across the region this afternoon into tonight, then a cold front approaches Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont. A cold front will push east across our region on Wednesday with scattered convection especially in the east. High temperatures will vary from the lower 60s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast.
High pressure was centered over the Plains states and extended eastward into the western Great Lakes.