Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
638 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return late tonight into Tuesday with a slow cold front. Exiting high pressure will continue to promote dry and seasonable weather today. Warm, moist advection will slowly increase through the day as a split trough axis and elongated surface cold front approach from the west. Model consensus depicts the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region into Tuesday, increasing rain chances. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable overnight period.
A short wave trough is carried east of the Rockies and across the forecast area this afternoon with models showing additional afternoon convective feedback over the higher terrain of Colorado that is carried eastward over the central high plains region this evening. Tuesday shows a similar but weaker convective feedback pattern over Colorado with a short wave trough sweeping across the northern high plains Tuesday night.
Preferred areas may be along the higher terrain in our eastern counties initially.
The eastward propagating forcing aloft is forecast to stall as it reaches the outer influences of a stagnant upper level low over Ontario. Warmer afternoon temperatures in the 60s are expected across central North Dakota. We are not expecting severe weather to cross the state border at this time, but some weakening convection could reach the Highway 12 corridor in North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Weak cold front just N of CDS at 6 AM is on track to track south through sunrise ahead of occasionally gusty N-NE winds through the morning. This complex's outflow was enhancing a weak cold front across the TX Panhandle and this boundary will continue sinking south and across much of our area shortly after daybreak.
Ridging aloft should build eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, and as a result we expect less convective coverage on Tuesday. It will continue to be hot, with daytime highs today and Tuesday climbing into the lower 90s over all inland areas, and mid to upper 80s closer to and along the coast. Lows tonight should be in the upper 60s to around 70 over inland locations and in the lower to mid 70s closer to the coast.
VFR condition prevail through the next 24 hours with high pressure centered over South Texas. /issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid-level high pressure axis extending across NW Mexico through Texas remains in place through the short-term period. The subsidence, dry air, a southerly flow combines with the high sun angle edging 850mb temperatures up a few degrees into the 26-28C degree range which will bump up ambient temperatures a few more degrees today and Tuesday. Deeper mixing today with the higher daytime temperatures should allow dew points to be a few degrees lower this afternoon keeping heat indices just shy of heat advisory, >110F. The pressure gradient between the Gulf ridge and lower pressure over the Southern and Central Plains strengthens through Monday morning with a low level jet peaking around 35 knots.
This will support weak shower activity through Monday evening, along with gusty winds over the ridgetops and east of the Cascades. A deepening trough well offshore will pump up a weak ridge over the Pacific Northwest tonight into Tuesday, and this will stabilize the air mass. The upper level ridge axis will break to the east of the area Tuesday, and a short wave rotating around the offshore upper level low will brush the area Tuesday night.
Made some minor adjustments to high temps but overall still looking at high temps in the lower 80s. High pressure will continue to be present through the early morning hours before shifting off to the northeast. With the weak flow, the circulation will park itself over the northern Great Lakes area before dragging a cold front through the forecast area later this evening. Highs for today look to be in the low to mid 80s with temperatures being a few degrees cooler for Tuesday. Models have the far southwestern counties in the cross-hairs with the highest QPF amounts which are upwards of an inch and three-quarters.
High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s west of I-95, with upper 80s along the coast.
This activity will move eastward across our area Wed, with the highest PoPs in the southern half of the area. While highs will remain in the lower half of the 80s, lows tonight will be in the upper half of the 60s, ranging to around 60 north of I-64 and the middle 60s by Wed night.
But confidence is higher in the low clouds forming again tonight, so have added an MVFR CIG at GUY. The low clouds and fog should dissipate by late this morning. More thunderstorms are expected to develop along the mountains of New Mexico and southern Colorado ahead of another short wave trough Tuesday afternoon. However, more thunderstorms may form in association with the short wave trough Tuesday night and these may have a better chance at moving across the northern Panhandles.
516 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return late tonight into Tuesday with a slow cold front. Exiting high pressure will continue to promote dry and seasonable weather today. Warm, moist advection will slowly increase through the day as a split trough axis and elongated surface cold front approach from the west. Model consensus depicts the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region into Tuesday, increasing rain chances. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable overnight period.
546 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return late tonight into Tuesday with a slow cold front. Exiting high pressure will continue to promote dry and seasonable weather today. Warm, moist advection will slowly increase through the day as a split trough axis and elongated surface cold front approach from the west. Model consensus depicts the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region into Tuesday, increasing rain chances. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable overnight period.
High pressure will gradually build across the area through the week.
A ridge is going to continue to build over the southwest region throughout this week.
(This evening through Tuesday) An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place through this afternoon as high pressure will continue to sit across the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow.
232 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 A cold front extended from southern WI to southern NE with warm/moist airmass ahead of the front. Tonight: At least scattered (or clusters) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, ahead of a cold front gradually moving southeast across the cwa. Drier air will filter into the area on north winds, so lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
354 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 The stubborn upper level low pressure over Manitoba and western Ontario continues to influence the weather across the U. Meanwhile skies had cleared over the west where cooler, stable flow was moving into the area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s. Broad troughing over the eastern half of Canada and parts of CONUS continue to dominate the pattern over our region tonight through the week.
A weak upper trough will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to northern areas this afternoon and evening, otherwise dry conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail.
116 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Showers and storms return late tonight into Tuesday with a crossing cold front. The region should remain largely dry this afternoon as high pressure exits east and warm air aloft keeps a lid on convection outside of far western zones. Model consensus depicts the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region into Tuesday, increasing rain chances. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable overnight period.
For Tuesday, heights will be on the rise across the tri-state area as a ridge builds over the region. Warmer temperatures are likely as well, given the lack of convection. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s for most of the area away from the immediate coast.
An upper level ridge will continue to build east on Tuesday with even less convective development Tuesday afternoon due to increased mid/upper level subsidence. It will continue to be hot, with daytime highs on Tuesday climbing into the lower 90s over all inland areas, and mid to upper 80s closer to and along the coast. Lows tonight should be in the upper 60s to around 70 over inland locations and in the lower to mid 70s closer to the coast.
A subtropical height ridge was centered over northern Mexico, extending into the southern half of TX and the western Gulf of Mexico.
A plume of rather unstable CAPE now resides across the lower MS valley and mid south.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): An H5 ridge across northern Mexico will build across Central Texas Tuesday. Tuesday's highs are expected to be a degree or two warmer than they were this afternoon as 850mb temperatures creep into the 26 to 28 degree Celsius range, which supports widespread upper 90s to 100s. Temperatures are then expected to be a degree or two cooler Tuesday night as winds calms down under a mainly clear sky.
With high pressure and ridging settling in overhead, we can expect heat, humidity, and therefore heat index values to increase today and tomorrow. Overnight lows tomorrow night will be a few degrees warmer and in the mid to upper 70s for inland locations and low 80s for our coastal and island locations.
Temperatures today and Tuesday will be near normal, with low to mid 70s for afternoon highs in the basins, and 60s in the higher elevation western valleys.
By this evening, the core of higher speeds aloft will have already moved to the Plains and as daytime heating subsides, convection will take a downturn though a few showers will likely persist over the higher terrain. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday though areas north will be similar to yesterday, if not a few degrees cooler, due to cloud cover and precip. For Tuesday, zonal flow remains over the area with some height rises expected in the afternoon as a low amplitude ridge quickly builds in. This ridge will quickly break down however as generally zonal flow sets up across the area.
930 AM PDT Mon Jun 6 2022 High pressure aloft will build over the Southwest this week and result in hot weather over inland areas, especially the second half of the week.
258 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Key Messages: - Below Normal Temperatures with Warmer Temperatures by the End of the Week - Continued On and Off Rain Chances This Week The morning rain has moved out with clouds lingering. with a closed low over Ontario. The chance for showers/storms continues to exit the area by early evening, however with the cold front, isolated showers may try to develop. It is only a small chance, so have a low pop with the cold front early this evening. Low temperatures should dip into the lower and mid 40s north of I94 with upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
With high pressure building in overhead, rain is not expected for the near future. Still expecting a rising temperature and heat index trend to start out the new week with a persistent onshore flow across our area and a building mid/upper level ridge across the state. Lows will struggle to fall below the low to mid 70s inland and below the low 80s at the coast.
As this wave progresses east it will continue to encounter drier air in the low levels so do not anticipate anything more than light rain. Temperatures may be a bit milder tomorrow but nothing more than a couple degrees warmer. With the freezing level closer to 9000 feet AGL will have to watch the instability as 500 J/kg or so more may support some isolated hailers. The low levels respond a bit and increase warm and moist advection into the area with the better chances near and east of Interstate 29.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Subtropical upper ridging continues to strengthen across Mexico and the desert southwest, with height rises today into tomorrow across TX. With a high sun angle, dry soils, and strong thermal ridging, hot conditions result.
225 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago at most locations early this afternoon. Along with the somewhat depressed temperatures, the northeasterly winds have carried in improved low-level moisture, with post-frontal dewpoints most in the lower to middle 60s as of 1850Z. This won't be an issue over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico, where storms will erupt during the afternoon.
A cold front will stall over the region late week, before a storm system potentially arrives over the weekend. A stationary front will linger over/near the area tonight, mainly across GA and over the nearby Atlantic while weak high pressure holds inland. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are expected most areas away from the warmer coast.
144 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Weak high pressure builds in over the area becoming the dominant weather feature over the region through the week. Above average temperatures continue through the week with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the 70s. Pleasant boating conditions expected through the week as weak high pressure builds in over the area. Rain and storm chances will remain on the low side as well, with the highest chances near the coast as storms move over the eastern gulf waters each afternoon/evening. Weak high pressure dominates the weather through the week.
The upper level low and its associated surface front will linger through the day on Tuesday before finally mixing out and drifting away Tuesday night.
With mostly clear skies over northern MN I have opted to drop temperatures once again to the lower echelon of guidance. The Borderlands could see some spots in the upper 30s with warmer temps further south into the 40s.
Rather uneventful conditions are expected tonight through most of Tuesday as a cold front stalled to the south finally moves off to the southeast, allowing weak high pressure to slide across the region overnight into tomorrow. However, precipitation is expected to redevelop Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night in response to a low pressure center coming out of WY/NE along the stalled front over the lee of the Rockies. This low center will slides across Nebraska into Missouri Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a weak inverted trough to its north extending into the Dakotas and then Minnesota. Temperatures will continue to run below normal through the short-term forecast, with no appreciable temperature advection expected despite the passage of the aforementioned low pressure center.
225 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Dry high pressure will move out over the Atlantic as the wind becomes southerly with the heat and humidity returning Tuesday.
Weak ridging roughly centered north of Puerto Rico will nudge the moisture plume westward, pushing it over the Keys where it will reside this evening and tomorrow. By tomorrow evening, the moisture band will slowly begin to lose definition and become more diffuse as the axis (nose) of the Atlantic ridge builds over the islands.
432 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Isolated light showers are possible this afternoon and evening, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday with a crossing cold front. Isolated showers will continue into the early evening, with a lull in activity expected thereafter until more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with a crossing cold front early Tuesday. Model consensus depicts the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region into Tuesday, increasing rain chances. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable overnight period.
308 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Tonight through Tuesday: The subtropical ridge extending from TX eastward along the Gulf Coast region will continue to have the greatest influence on the weather early this week, resulting in primarily rain-free, hot and humid conditions. The exception may be for locations along/north of the Highway 82 corridor where mesoscale convective systems emanating from the energetic westerlies may bring the potential for a few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts.
Some showers and a few storms will be ahead and along a cold front on Tuesday.
Overall, forecast remains on track as two MCVs and a cold front bring ample chances for showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours. After midnight, the cold front is shown to drop into the northwestern forecast area. Should any of these storms move over areas that received the higher end of totals, the additional rainfall could prolong any ongoing ponding/flooding. Main upper low center will meander south of Hudson Bay through much of the period, sending several troughs through the flow with the first arriving Wed/Wed eve and the next Fri through Sat. Expect IFR cigs at both sites before 12Z as the lower layers moisten and an inversion develops.
Prevailing flow will be out of the southwest today as high pressure remains over the eastern US. Early afternoon showers and storms will continue form within the vicinity of the frontal boundary and along the sea breeze boundary and convergence areas with a potential for strong to severe storms forming this afternoon as troughing and instability in the mid and upper levels moving across the forecast area serves to enhance convective developments. High temperatures for today will range between the mid 80s and upper 90s with warmer temperatures occurring over north central Florida and for areas west of of the I-75 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s for inland areas and into the lower 70s for locations near the coast and along the St Johns River.
Drier weather is expected for some of Tuesday, though an approaching cold front boundary will bring our next round of precip by Tuesday afternoon and evening.
134 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Early afternoon satellite imagery and observations show no shortage of boundaries across central and western Nebraska with an old lingering frontal boundary extending from SD into central/eastern Nebraska, a north-south inverted trof/dryline across western Nebraska, and numerous convective outflow boundaries floating around.
Overall, forecast remains on track as two MCVs and a cold front bring ample chances for showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours. After midnight, the cold front is shown to drop into the northwestern forecast area. Should any of these storms move over areas that received the higher end of totals, the additional rainfall could prolong any ongoing ponding/flooding.
After a cold frontal passage tonight, dry and pleasant weather will move in for Tuesday.
Hennig (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current observations show a very weak cold front has moved into the northwestern Permian Basin this afternoon. A better westerly wind component tomorrow will help push the thermal ridge farther east causing very hot temperatures. Even the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains will easily exceed 90s so proper hydration will be very important for any outdoor activities tomorrow.
Upper level ridge over northern Mexico this evening will gradually build eastward into south-central Texas by Tuesday night. Southerly low level flow will increase to 30-40 knots over the area tonight in response to low pressure over northwest Texas.
Overall, forecast remains on track as two MCVs and a cold front bring ample chances for showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours. After midnight, the cold front is shown to drop into the northwestern forecast area. Should any of these storms move over areas that received the higher end of totals, the additional rainfall could prolong any ongoing ponding/flooding. Main upper low center will meander south of Hudson Bay through much of the period, sending several troughs through the flow with the first arriving Wed/Wed eve and the next Fri through Sat. Further lowering possible late Monday night, just beyond current forecast period, as undercut of shallow post-cold frontal air lends further moistening and shallow inversion.
The concerning feature will be increasing deep shear as the speed max associated with the aforementioned PV trough pushes into the Plains, elevating effective shear to 50+kts, including quasi- linear elongated hodographs.
Ahead of a weak cold front associated with this upper wave tonight, another band of showers and storms will be possible.
329 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 High pressure grants tranquil weather and comfortable temperatures through Tuesday. By Tuesday night shower chances will be on the increase as a low pressure system approaches from the west and lingers through the end of the workweek. Clouds will likely increase during the day as a short wave trough approaches from the west.
This will create a temperature difference between the southwest which is forecast to range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. The northwest is forecast to see high temperatures from the lower 60s to upper 60s.
632 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Key Messages: - Below Normal Temperatures with Warmer Temperatures by the End of the Week - Continued On and Off Rain Chances This Week The morning rain has moved out with clouds lingering. with a closed low over Ontario. The chance for showers/storms continues to exit the area by early evening, however with the cold front, isolated showers may try to develop. It is only a small chance, so have a low pop with the cold front early this evening. Low temperatures should dip into the lower and mid 40s north of I94 with upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
Another intense MCS should develop across the High Plains tonight, which will move east-southeast towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. An upper-level ridge should begin to move into Southwest Texas and Northern Mexico starting tonight. However, the models have been too fast with the migration of the upper ridge, and they have not done well forecasting the southward extent of the convection. Due to the migration of the upper ridge, PoPs should be confined to Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest/South Central Arkansas, and extreme Northeast Texas, generally along and north of the U.
904 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Showers and isolated thunderstorms return tonight through Tuesday with a crossing cold front. More widespread showers and isolated thunder are then expected late tonight into Tuesday with better upper support in advance of a crossing cold front. Model consensus depicts the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region into Tuesday, increasing rain chances. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable overnight period.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Current observations show a very weak cold front has moved into the northwestern Permian Basin this afternoon. A better westerly wind component tomorrow will help push the thermal ridge farther east causing very hot temperatures. Even the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains will easily exceed 90s so proper hydration will be very important for any outdoor activities tomorrow.
Some showers and a few storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon.
843 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Subtropical upper ridging continues to strengthen across Mexico and the desert southwest, with height rises today into tomorrow across TX. With a high sun angle, dry soils, and strong thermal ridging, hot conditions result.