Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds at the surface across the Plains will be 10-15 mph or less other than in the Jackson County and the higher elevations of Larimer County. Dry westerly flow across the state will bring warmer temperatures and dry weather across northeast Colorado today. Temperatures will be around yesterday's levels if not a couple degrees warmer. A fairly decent upper trough is progged to push across the CWA Friday.
Surface analysis early this afternoon showed a weak area of low pressure over the Great Lakes while the main surface front was across northern IL to western MO. Otherwise, it will be another hot and humid day with highs in the low 90s. Precipitation chances will finally return to the forecast today as the upper level ridging over the region starts to flatten out a bit. A trailing front from this low will stretch across the Great Lakes region and upper Midwest. South of this boundary we will have moisture pooling across the Lower Ohio Valley. The best chance for storms looks to be across southern IN and north central KY on the north side of the upper level ridge and closer to the frontal boundary.
Not high confidence in development of iso mainly light shwrs/tstms across NW portions and Highland Rim locations this afternoon thru Fri night, as some slight weakening of upper level ridging dynamics occurs across this region is expected, but no organized instability and lifting mechanisms present. With the rest of the mid state continuing to be entrenched under the ridging influences sfc/aloft, dry conditions are expected to continue.
1018 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 A short line of showers with embedded thunderstorms pushed through the Lower Keys over the past couple of hours, with the strongest cores now situated between Key West and the Marquesas Keys. September 8th, on this date in Florida Keys climate history, in 1965, Category 3 Hurricane Betsy moved west through the Upper Keys, Florida Bay, and the Gulf side waters of the Lower Keys.
752 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
841 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure will prevail across the region Today, with dry air in place. Highs will be in the lower 90s away from coast.
S, a mid/upper trough will move through the southern Gulf through the short term.
Strong mid level ridge over Texas will result in minimal cloud cover today and continued hot temperatures.
Ridge of high pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies and light winds.
/issued 331 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging, centered over the southcentral United States, will suppress most shower and thunderstorms development in West Central Texas. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
/ISSUED 408 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A large upper level ridge of high pressure will remain sprawled across Texas and the interior Southeast U.
High pressure to the south will result in favorable mixing conditions today.
In the upper levels, a large ridge remains spread across much of the southeast half of Conus from the northern part of Mexico northeastward into the Ohio Valley. 08 The upper level ridge will remain the primary influence on our weather through the rest of the work week, helping to keep conditions hot and dry. VFR for rest with any significant cloud cover and any precip suppressed due to ridging at the surface and aloft. 08 A ridge of high pressure aloft will help to suppress shower and thunderstorm development through Friday, with low rain chances returning over the weekend.
There is a frontal system stretched out over the Ohio Valley, westward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, however, it is looking like the upper level ridge currently parked over the southeast United States is going to win out. Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 67 93 70 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 94 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 63 91 65 / 0 0 10 10.
Storms developed shortly before midnight as the low level jet converged into a weak boundary over central KS. Strong cold front still expected to push through Fri afternoon through Fri evening. Finally, a much cooler and especially drier airmass will be in place Sat with highs struggling to get out of the 70s. Still good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a front stalling out over the area for Mon night through Tue as the upper low spins over the Central Great Basin.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, although highs will be around 5 degrees below normal. The northwest flow aloft will weaken on Friday as weak upper ridging develops over region, resulting in clear skies and light winds.
This separates hot high pressure is currently bottled up over the Four Corners and Desert Southwest from cool air north of the Jet over Canada. This will amplify the zonal flow into a trough across the northeast Montana and bring a chance for isolated to scattered rain showers through Friday.
High pressure aloft will prevail tonight through Friday for drier and warmer conditions.
1043 AM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Outside of a few high clouds floating across the southern zones this morning, little impact felt from post-Tropical Cyclone Newton.
1039 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016 A 12Z upper air analysis showed a 500 mb high pressure ridge over the northern counties of the forecast area. The subsidence area west of the easterly wave and under the upper high pressure ridge was helping to keep slightly drier conditions over the remainder of the forecast area.
By tonight low pressure aloft will begin to dig into the northern high plains which will allow for the deeper moisture and more unstable air to the south to work back to the north. The low level jet and mid level winds will increase across Nebraska and increase convergence across parts of northwest Iowa and far southeast SD. Temperatures will be getting cooler behind the cold front coming across. Highs Friday in the low to mid 70s area wide are allowed for by clouds decreasing quickly enough behind the front.
High temps today will reach the lower-mid 70s per the strong downslope flow. Cold pool aloft to -22c at 500mb under trough axis during peak heating may be enough for a few lightning strikes across our east as well Friday afternoon. Chilliest night will be tomorrow night as winds decrease and skies clear as ridge builds in behind this system.
(Issued 1041 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016) This morning's forecast discussion is pretty much a carbon copy of my AFD yesterday since high pressure remains anchored across the region. Current temps range from the lower to upper 80s, heading into the low/mid 90s this afternoon.
5 inch PWATs in the east as drier air continues to advect into the CWA in the weak easterly flow around the ridge. Today through Friday A flat ridge of high pressure extends along the Gulf Coast this morning, and an analysis of water vapor imagery indicates a weak easterly wave lifting northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico beneath this ridge. Flow will be weak beneath the ridge, so do not expect coverage to be very widespread if showers or storms develop.
Temps expected to reach into the low to mid 90s areawide today, with heat index values over 100 degrees. With dewpoint values in the mid 70s and high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s, heat index values will approach 100 to 104 degrees across the region. A similar pattern expected again on Friday except for the fact that temperatures may be slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover across the region.
This evening's surface and upper air analyses were not much different than 24 hours earlier, with a deep layer ridge across the Southeast and an exceptionally dry airmass over our forecast area. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s.
Later this afternoon, scattered storms should form mainly over northern and western Oklahoma as a trough approaches from the west. A better chance for widespread showers and storms will start Friday afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches northern Oklahoma.
This is in response to several troughs and disturbances associated with broad and cold low pressure system beginning to shift southward from Vancouver Island into the coastal waters of Oregon and northern California. In addition to the cloudier and wetter weather, temperatures will also be cooler than normal by a few degrees this week.
312 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Tonight, an upper level ridge will shift from the Plains to the Northland, promoting clearing skies. to the lower 50s well inland. The trough will bring a surge of moisture and increasing chances of showers in the afternooon into the evening.
347 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 A weak cold front over the area will dissipate tonight.
The upper trough axis moves through eastern Kansas during the evening hours.
Upper level ridge is centered this afternoon across northern Mexico and extended east into the CWA. Around the northern periphery of the ridge isolated storms are forming across West Texas and the Big Bend along the dry line, and a cluster of storms across North Texas along an outflow boundary continues to drop south. The upper level ridge will expand east over the CWA on Tuesday with another warm and humid day.
420 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Warm front to our south will move slowly back northward. A low pressure system/weak cold front will then move through for the end of the work week. High pressure. allowing a warm front to approach the area from the southwest on Tuesday. Clouds should slowly increase on Tuesday as the warm front approaches the area. Latest temperature guidance was a few degrees cooler for lows tonight.
/issued 420 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Current water vapor satellite imagery shows the center of a 500 mb ridge of high pressure over the Texas Big Bend and north-central Mexico.
252 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 A cooler and drier air mass will prevail over the region today, in the wake of a backdoor cold frontal passage early this morning. A welcomed change and refreshing treat is in store today, behind a backdoor cold front that advected dry significantly cooler, drier and stable air south into central NC overnight. Expect highs Tuesday rebounding into the lower 90s, with lows Tuesday night rebounding into the lower to mid 70s.
Am not inclined to believe most models showing due east movement given what happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient, although slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit southern extent.
Later tonight, a cold front will be slowly making its way across the Northern Rockies as a trough settles over the west coast. The widespread precipitation, cloud cover, and cooler air will keep temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
130 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 A weak cold front will drop south through the area today and dissipate tonight.
Convection will diminish into late evening with skies partly cloudy to mostly clear with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s. Position of ridge axis and some drier air working in at mid levels from the southeast will result in the lowest PoPs along the Treasure Coast. The ridge and any lingering drier air gets shunted to the south mid to late week. This occurs as troffiness deepens into the southeast and feed of deep moisture advects into region from the Gulf of Mexico. Ridge axis will remain south mid to late week as trof and associated surface boundary deepen into the southeast states.
There will be a risk for some severe storms closer to the Highway 54 corridor and north, or essentially west central and central Missouri Tuesday night. The summertime ridge of high pressure will persist through the rest of the week, bringing our first heat wave of the season.
301 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across central Illinois today, leading to mostly sunny and hot conditions. With no strong boundary to focus on and the low-level jet remaining well to the west across the Plains, think any storms that develop will be diurnally driven and will dissipate later in the evening. Low temperatures will remain in the lower 70s.
Low temperatures tonight will be above normal with lows in the low to mid 70s.
The upper trough near the Nevada border late this afternoon will sweep east across the state tonight.
331 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Partly to mostly cloudy weather will give way to clearing skies overnight as high pressure builds toward the area from southern Canada.
With day time heating and a weak upper level trough over the area, convection will still be possible this afternoon but much less coverage than yesterday. Ridging aloft should increase so do not think there will be much if any convection tomorrow for the TAFs.
An upper level trough will bring cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover to Northwest California this week.
300 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 At H5 large closed low over the northeast CONUS. Ridging into the Great Lakes with trough underneath the ridge centered over ARKALATEX. Closed low over the Gulf of Alaska.
/issued 1144 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ The mosaic radar imagery late this morning indicated a mid level circulation over extreme NE TX associated with the mid/upper trough axis bisecting the region. along a NW to SE theta-e ridge that will spread ESE along the trough axis. Despite the low topped convection. believe the high FFG and localized nature of this threat precludes a Flash Flood Watch issuance attm. Also lowered max temps to the lower/mid 80s. The 12Z run of the NAM/latest HRRR sugguest that the convection should begin to diminish from the W this afternoon over SE OK/E TX as mid/upper level dry air noted on the water vapor imagery and 12Z KFWD raob begin to entrain E as the weak trough axis drifts E into Scntrl AR/N LA.
An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will be positioned across eastern Colorado this afternoon then push eastward into Kansas this evening. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s across portions of west central Kansas to lower 70s across portions of south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are forecasted to range from the lower 90s across west central Kansas to upper 90s across south central Kansas. The story with Tuesday onward, is that a strong 590 dm ridge will build across the Great Plains.
GFS continues to show 2000 J/KG of CAPE on Tuesday across the western half of the state as the upper level trough moves into eastern ND. However, 0-6km bulk shear around 20 kts along with subsidence on the backside of the trough should limit the severe threat.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through midweek as an upper level trough develops off of the West Coast.
Current readings are mainly in the low to middle 90s across the region. Dew points are in the low to middle 70s resulting in triple digit heat indices across most of the region. Overnight lows should be mostly in the low 70s. There may be a few more clouds as a weak trough shifts across the region. temperatures may be slightly cooler.
Based on the current timing in the models, it may be a close call for our CWA, with the main surface/low level fronts as well as the mid level trough axis lingering long enough that strong/severe weather cannot be completely ruled out.
206 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Under partly cloudy skies temps were in the lower 90s with dewpoints arnd 70.
Yesterday's cold front has stalled out across southwest into south-central Kentucky where dewpoints remain in the low 70s.
/issued 611 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ A weak upper level low pressure system will move slowly across the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days.
Still, temps in the low-mid 90s with dew points in the low-mid 70s yield dangerous heat index values, especially by Wed-Fri when heat advisory will likely be needed for some areas.
An area of low pressure will keep a chance of thunderstorms lingering into this evening over mainly Lincoln County.
Pacific cold front and showers will reach nwrn Baker and Harney Counties around 06z. Breezy and much cooler Tuesday.
333 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Southeast Michigan remains on downstream edge of large upper ridge over the Midwest. The forecast area will remain pretty much under the same scenario through Tuesday night as the ridge remains nearly stationary.
SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop NE through the afternoon and evening hours, with the highest confidence from KBZN to KLWT.
An inverted trough was located from Big Horn to Powder River County at 18Z. Lift will be provided by the inverted trough and energy moving through the SW flow aloft.
1039 AM PDT MON JUN 13 2016 The next cold front sweeps through the area this afternoon and tonight, while an upper low starts inland Tuesday. A closed low dropping towards Vancouver Island will send a cold front across the region today. A dry slot coming around the low will track through the heart of the forecast area. JW 18Z TAFS: A cold front will be moving into eastern WA and north ID between this afternoon and Tuesday morning.
The surface warm front will begin to approach the area Tuesday afternoon and some showers and elevated thunderstorms should arrive from the southwest later in the day.
Virtually uncapped surface- based instability has again been somewhat hampered by unimpressive midlevel lapse rates and kept storms weak; however, a weakness in the upper ridge has also allowed coverage to be a bit broader than yesterday's storms. Should storms move into the region tomorrow morning this could impact surface-based instability and severe weather potential later in the day; however, in a very warm and increasingly moist atmosphere, it will not take much sun or much time to get the low- levels mixed enough to support surface based convection on Tuesday.
Generally dry and warm weather expected across the CWA this period under a dry southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper trof just off the west coast of the country.
Skies are expected to remain clear within the lowest 5000 ft despite the increase in mid level cloud through tonight. Therefore expecting nothing more than virga or an isolated sprinkle from the high overcast cloud deck.
MCS continues to track south and west of the area while thus far majority of precip near weak upper low has remained south of the area.
We do have a low pressure nearby that may help generate an isolated shower or storm overnight, especially in the west so have help onto rain chances all night west of Interstate 65.
406 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Our region will remain in northwest flow for most of the forecast period as a large ridge builds over the southwestern United States and central North America. Another nice day though a bit warmer Tuesday.
635 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Clouds will give way to clearing skies overnight as high pressure builds toward the area from southeastern Canada.
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure over central ND is brining sunny to partly cloudy skies as some cirrus is over portions of the area as well as some early morning CU development over portions of the northern valley. Some cirrus around due to proximity of high level moisture moving north around the Texas upper high. Tonight will see the 500 mb heights build a bit north again as a stronger short wave moves out of the American southwest and into the high plains.
1245 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Surface cold front has nudged east into northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early this morning. With some mid level instability in place aided by the low level jet, a few high based thunderstorms have popped up along the elevated. Upper trough near the Four Corners region advances northeast today and tonight.
model are in very good agreement placing max lift/strong DPVA along the high plains with initiation occurring sometime btwn 00z-03z this evening.
High pressure over the eastern great lakes will move on to the east and this will allow a warm front across southern Illinois and Kentucky to drift northeast across our region late tonight.
Dry pattern of late starts to adjust through the short term as convection off the high plains and an approaching upper system start to drive rain chances further eastward into our area. Highs a few degrees cooler today in the middle to upper 80s and overnight lows again near 70. Sunrise on Tuesday morning the low level jet will be centered over central KS, and nosing into southern NE. The low level jet will be in the weakening phase, and should no longer provide a focus for moisture and lift. This is when the mid level trough lifts out over the plains and pushes a front/dry line through the area. The upper ridge quickly builds back over the plains and 850 temps soar to 25-30 C.
605 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal with lows tonight mostly in the 70s and highs on Tuesday from the mid to upper 80s close to the coast to the lower and mid 90s inland. These temperatures combined with the high humidity will cause heat index values to climb to between 100 and 105 over inland areas. By late week, models forecast a mid/upper level trough to move across the Eastern Gulf.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Atmospheric drying now quite evident in current water-vapor channel satellite imagery on the front side of an upper-level ridge with axis analyzed from Coahuila up through the Panhandle region. At the surface, pressure gradient between central Gulf high and thermal trough over the interior of Mexico is maintaining breezy S-SE winds.
126 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the area today into Tuesday.
A deep upper low will bring cool showery weather tonight through Tuesday night with thunderstorms possible Tuesday.
334 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Storms developing over the high plains of Colorado and New Mexico will make a move toward northwestern Oklahoma tonight, with the HRRR indicating that it may move into the forecast area as early as 02Z.
Will use a blended model solution, focusing on the high resolution CAMs for the first 12-18 hours.
The only exception to that is a short-lived mid level vort lobe nearby from late Wed into early Thur, which would account for the higher probability of measurable precipitation appearing in the latest GFS MOS numbers. A few showers may also develop during the early evening closer to Key West should a cumulus cloud line manage to stay rooted to the Lower Keys once northerly winds diminish.
135 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Our region will remain in northwest flow for most of the forecast period as a large ridge builds over the southwestern United States and central North America. Another nice day though a bit warmer Tuesday.
An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will be positioned across eastern Colorado this afternoon then push eastward into Kansas this evening. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s across portions of west central Kansas to lower 70s across portions of south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are forecasted to range from the lower 90s across west central Kansas to upper 90s across south central Kansas. A quiet and dry weather pattern is expected Tuesday through at least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains with an upper level low over the eastern Pacific.
(Issued 1024 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016) Forecast is very similar to yesterday with highs expected to peak in the low to mid 90s.
Additional convection over the mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough, responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer than today, with readings near normal for this time of year.
1122 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016 Updated aviation section An upper level trough over the western Great Basin will be filling and ejecting northeast through the region today. Tuesday will be a down day with storms more diurnally and terrain driven, focused on the higher elevations. This cooler weather will be short-lived as we start climbing back toward normal and beyond by Tuesday.