Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TODAY. HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S WHERE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH AND MOVES INLAND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXISTS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TODAY.
703 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN FROM UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE HIGH PLAINS. 00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES OVER-TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER. GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THE LOWERING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS CLOUDINESS WILL BE QUITE EXTENSIVE AND THE THERMAL RIDGE IN THE PLAINS IS SUPPRESSED FARTHER WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.
433 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
PROBABLY DUE TO WARM ANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPERATURES AND AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. ON SATURDAY THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST BUT THERE IS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION DURING THE PERIOD. BEING PART OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. PERIOD BEGINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A LARGE TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. HIGHS ALSO WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS A COLD POCKET OF AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THE LOW CLOUDS LIMIT HEATING. FOR TNGT AND SATURDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHSN AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
COOLER/HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW RIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN SD. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS.
Another concern is the potential for freezing temps both Friday and Saturday nights. Freezing temps should be more widespread on Saturday night, but there will still be some clouds and wind as a compact 500 mb low moves southeast across northeast Missouri.
303 AM PDT FRI MAR 18 2016 High pressure off the California coast will move slowly inland, bringing continued dry weather and generally light winds with a steady warming trend through Saturday.
BUT BETTER CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL TURN BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM SE-NW WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK IMPULSES PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DE-AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE COAST. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA ALSO RETROGRADES A BIT AS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA.
ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS FRIDAY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE REGION.
1235 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS EVENING THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SEND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS SOUTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE TRANSLATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. EASTWARD AND THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
East-west oriented trofiness lingers across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest as the main low departs, presenting a fairly unusual configuration to the synoptic pattern and setting the stage for an unsettled weekend. By tonight an upper impulse over the northern Rockies will dig into the Plains and close off the upper low over the Upper Midwest. This forecast reflects the raw model numbers which keep us on the lower end of guidance.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front somewhere in the South Plains, against weak return flow closer to home. /issued 452 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ An upper trough is over the Northern Plains and a cold front is currently pushing southward across the Texas panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today from the Western Low Rolling Plains southward to the Lower Trans Pecos to the Big Bend area. Freezing temperatures will be possible Saturday morning behind the cold front across the higher terrain, the northern Permian Basin, and parts of Lea County.
653 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
325 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
452 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 An upper trough is over the Northern Plains and a cold front is currently pushing southward across the Texas panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today from the Western Low Rolling Plains southward to the Lower Trans Pecos to the Big Bend area. Freezing temperatures will be possible Saturday morning behind the cold front across the higher terrain, the northern Permian Basin, and parts of Lea County.
PREDOMINATE CEILINGS BEGIN TO DECREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. AS COOLER TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FROPA.
453 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION DURING TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA. LOW PROCESSOR WAS LOCATED EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A TROUGH ARCING SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES THEN WESTWARD TO A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF ND. NERN SD AND WRN MN TROUGH MOST OF TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN TODAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHEARING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MN AND IOWA INTO TONIGHT.
This early snow development is lending more confidence to the forecast snowfall amounts and advisory issued for this morning in the north central/northeastern DDC area counties, although the higher end will need to be trimmed. The models including the NAM and the high resolution WRF cores are grossly overdone with respect to QPF and 3-6 hour snow as they indicated as much as 4 to 5 inches by 6 z which never materialized. Clearing skies tonight under increasing high pressure should help lows fall into the low 20s at least, possible the mid to upper teens in the far west.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO ENTER THE CWA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS AFTER FROPA EARLY SATURDAY OWING IN PART TO COLDER AIR OVER WARMER SST VALUES.
415 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW WILL REACH INTO THE AREA. REINFORCING ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.
Upper ridge will control the NorCal weather through Saturday with above normal temperatures. Valley high temps will be in the low to mid 70's.
323 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
320 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING, ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the Plains early this morning. The trough will continue to spread to the east and close off into a low across Iowa/northern Missouri on Saturday.
THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. MONTANA WILL SEE THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILD IN.
102 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WE HAVE ENJOYED ALMOST 2 WEEKS WILL COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS END THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
335 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
219 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE PROMINENT. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY CAN DIP INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGES STAYING IN THE 40S. AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WE WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 30S WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT SEE AS BIG A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A ridge of high pressure is developing over the region and will remain in place through the weekend. Clear skies will enable temperatures to lower well into the lower 20s Friday and Saturday morning.
400 AM PDT FRI MAR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FAR INLAND AREAS.
359 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 ELONGATED UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARD IOWA TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE STATE. READINGS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO IOWA ON SATURDAY WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH THE DAY WITH THERMAL TROF BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW.
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TN/GA BORDER. GIVEN VICINITY OF THE LOW. AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREA.
AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
418 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 Today - Saturday: IR/Water vapor imagery shows a baroclinic leaf developing within a broad upper trough and expanding east from northeast CO across the CWA. While the primary operational model snow algorithms generate accumulating snow across the southern CWA inspection of model soundings suggests evaporative cooling should elevate the surface wet bulb temperatures to freezing or slightly above. Ground temperatures are well above freezing due to the prolonged warm spell we've had so any snow that would fall should melt almost on impact. Expect clouds to clear after midnight with sub-freezing overnight low temperatures likely. Operational models develop a closed low over IA on Saturday with vorticity lobes circling cyclonically across the CWA.
411 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 Cold front nearing I-44 early this morning will continue to push south to the Red River by early this afternoon, ushering in below normal temps for the first time this month. This will ultimately result in clearing skies tonight, especially northern areas where temps likely to fall near or a few degrees below freezing.
638 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
402 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 400 AM CDT MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON A TRANSITION TO COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO MINNESOTA. WESTERN PORTION OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHEARED UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY/CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BAND OF PRECIPITATIONALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS COLD FRONT. THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SNOW DURING THE DIURNAL NIGHT/EARLY MORNING COOLER HOURS WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY.
306 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAN FROM LAKE HURON BACK INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LATE THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING TO ACT ON WHAT MOISTURE IS PRESENT.
253 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE FRONT THAT IS STEADILY MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL AUGMENT LIFT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. THE COOLER AIRMASS LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PREVIOUSLY PROMPTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
A cooler and drier airmass is expected behind the next front being ushered in by high pressure sliding into the southern Plains.
EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SERVED AS A PSEUDO COLD FRONT AND RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL PUT AN END TO THE RAINFALL. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS THICK. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING WILL PUSH SOME CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.
With upper level support increasing during the day as the upper trof approaches, the chance for precip reaching the ground increases.
A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
The NAM and RAP indicated in excess of 4 inches, so probability of reaching at least the lower advisory threshold of 2 inches seems decent this morning despite the warm ground, and warm temperatures that need to be overcome by dynamic cooling. Rain should develop north of Dodge City around midnight, then spread south during the morning as a cold front drops southward across Kansas. South winds around 10 to 20 mph will shift to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph with the cold front. Warmer mid 40s will be in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to near Pratt.
348 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED A LITTLE COOLER AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON COOLER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE FOLLOWED KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE PERSISTENT NEARLY CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL AND MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES PREVAILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT EAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS UNTIL THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR MORE NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS OF 7-13 KNOTS.
645 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW WILL REACH INTO THE AREA. REINFORCING ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.
642 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 IMPACTS: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MI WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
WEAK CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI PRODUCING SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. METRO ROADCAST HAS ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP BUT WL COOL CLOSER TO FREEZING WITH HEAVIER SHSN. REMNANT MID-LEVEL TROF FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH PASSED SEVERAL DAYS WL SAG INTO SRN HALF OF WI TODAY BUT THEN BECOME STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO NEW MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM OVER MN. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD END MOST OF THE SHOWERS FOR A TIME TODAY. LINGERING NEARBY INVERTED SFC FRONT/TROF AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WARRANTS KEEPING LOW POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WRN CWA LATER TODAY AND TNGT. THIS IS BECAUSE THAT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE EXITING WINDY SYSTEM WILL HANG UP OVER THE MN/IA/DAKOTAS AREA TODAY.
The two waves will merge with a closed upper low forecast to slowly track over our area during the weekend. Forecast soundings off the NAM indicate quite a bit of mid and high level cloud cover across most of the area today coupled with a northerly flow should keep temperatures several degrees cooler from yesterday with readings this afternoon from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south.
The sunshine should be short-lived however, as the aforementioned surface trof will begin to pivot counter-clockwise back across our area in response to a newly formed mid level low which will dive southward toward our region.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 408 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST.
432 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 (Today and Tonight) A strong cold front will move south across the area today, with showers and a few strong to severe storms possible through this evening. A much colder airmass will filter into the area tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the mid and upper 30s north, to the lower 40s along the I-10 corridor.
345 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL METARS AT 2 AM CLEARLY SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 43 MPH IN DALHART. THE SETUP SHOULD BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL LOWS AREA WIDE AS WINDS TREND LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE.
Afternoon highs today will likely be a degree or two cooler than yesterday, mainly because of increased cloud cover and possible cool outflow boundaries from convection to the west.
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 70 81 67 / 30 30 60 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 67 80 65 / 10 20 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 67 80 64 / 10 20 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 62 79 61 / 10 20 50 30.
WHICH JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST. THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD DOWNSTREAM. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRENDING NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER AND COOLER SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STATUS AND TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. EVEN WITHOUT THE CYCLONE IN PLAY.