Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A ridge of high pressure over the southeast CONUS will act to increase northeast winds across our region by mid week, gradually shifting to a more easterly direction. The highest coverage of scattered showers should affect portions of the Atlantic coastal waters and east coast metro through this weekend. As high pressure aloft builds over the southeast CONUS today, northeast winds will increase and may gust to 15 to 20 mph by early this afternoon, most pronounced along coastal sections of the east coast metro. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s today, a few degrees below normal for this time of year. By tomorrow, both the GFS and ECMWF push the aforementioned high pressure cell further east.
Winds in the lower half of the atmosphere are generally from the east or northeast under 10 knots and then mainly from the northwest in the upper half of the atmosphere.
/issued 428 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ Water vapor imagery reveals upper ridge setting up over the middle of the country with broad troughing exiting the east coast. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will continue to shift way from our region over the SECONUS as its effects will not be felt for us due to the encroaching ridge which has shunted the front eastward. Any fog will quickly diminish by mid morning as south to southeast winds kick in and temperatures quickly climb into the afternoon, eventually topping out in the lower 80s at most areas.
Mid and high clouds remain during the afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the low 70s northeast to mid/upper 70s elsewhere. For tonight clouds slowly decrease from west to east as upper level ridging builds to our west and trough that moved through today exits the area. Low temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s (west to east). center of 592 upper high resides over southwest New Mexico with ridge axis extending north-northeast along the Continental Divide. High temperatures in the low to upper 70s with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Rinse and repeat, right? It's very quiet across Middle Tennessee this morning, with clear skies and temperatures a little cooler behind yesterday's "frontal" passage. High pressure will settle into the region today, allowing for continued clear skies and afternoon highs slightly warmer than yesterday.
851 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather until advancing low pressure returns rain chances to the region on Wednesday night. By tonight, building high pressure will veer, and lighten the wind sufficiently for the stratocu layer to dissipate. As a deepening Great Lakes low pressure system approaches Wednesday, a warm front will lift across the area.
Stalled cold front continues to bring rain showers across much of the area this morning.
Upper level clouds will move across the area with increasing moisture rotating around a ridge of high pressure over Baja California. /issued 415 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A weak short wave continues to move east across the ARKLATEX overnight as another 500mb trough moves across the Southern Rockies and approaches the Panhandles region. Deep South Texas remains between two areas of high pressure. one centered towards Baja Mexico and a weaker ridge centered over the Gulf. The aforementioned 500mb trough will pass across Northern Texas today through Wednesday. however most moisture will be confined to the lower level with increasingly drier air aloft.
A weakening low pressure trough moving northeast across a strong high pressure ridge will produce isolated to scattered showers mainly across portions of Phillips and northern Valley counties today. TEC While a Pacific storm system rages west of Vancouver Island today, Northeast Montana remains under a southwest flow aloft due to a large ridge over the Central Plains. Wednesday will see the return of the upper ridge for more continued mild weather and seasonal temperatures. There will be a frontal boundary orientated east-west across Nemont with cooler air to the north.
Upper ridge continues to build this way from southern plains while surface ridging remains across the area.
1010 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
Winds will become onshore and increase today as high pressure builds over the eastern U.
1221 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather until advancing low pressure returns rain to the region on Wednesday night. By tonight, building high pressure will veer, and lighten the wind sufficiently for the stratocu layer to dissipate. As a deepening Great Lakes low pressure system approaches Wednesday, a warm front will lift across the area.
Moist, southwest flow aloft ahead of a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will continue through Tuesday.
High pressure over the great lakes this morning will move on to the east.
/Issued 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ A dry cold front will cross the area early this morning giving way to a slightly cooler airmass. Highs temps around 70 across the higher elevations to the low 80s south of Columbus. Easterly winds may become gusty as the front pushes further south with high pressure building in from the NE. A dry cold front will continue to cross the area this morning giving way to easterly winds, which has been observed at ATL metro. Winds will subside later this afternoon/evening as high pressure builds in.
We'll start the day in the mid 40s to low 50s, but quickly warm into the low/mid 80s in most areas. Clear skies will continue into the night with lows primarily in the low/mid 50s.
908 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Fair and warmer weather is expected through Wednesday with higher pressure aloft and night and morning low clouds in the coast and western valleys.
Temperatures ranged from near 45 to the lower 50s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s. A upper ridge axis will extend across the Central Conus, flanked by an upper trough off the West Coast and another off upper New England and eastern Canada. The western Sandhills to reach the lower to mid 70s. Skies to become mostly clear in the wake of the exiting system with weak high pressure building in.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to prevail over the ArkLaMiss. Skies will be mostly sunny today with highs in the low/mid 80s. Little will change tonight with lows falling into the low/mid 50s.
/issued 223 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016/ An upper level short wave trough over western Arizona early this morning will track quickly northeastward today and eject onto the central plains this evening. Abundant upper level cloud cover and decreasing thicknesses point to cooler temperatures today compared to yesterday with MOS values looking reasonable given the magnitude of the progged thickness decrease. The cooler temperatures and cloud cover will not help in that regard. With little fanfare, a weak cold front will push through our forecast area on Wednesday, doing little else than shifting winds out of the north. This is in response to an upper ridging pattern that begins to build in from the west on Wednesday.
/issued 349 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Currently, we have ridging in place across west central Texas aloft.
This is normally a progressive pattern, but with a deep nearly cutoff trough off the west coast, progress will be slow, at least initially. That trough will remain in roughly the same location through this week and beyond, as short waves diving down the back side of it will force it to maintain its position. As long as it remains out there, the Pacific Northwest will remain under southwest and occasionally south flow aloft, and short waves ejecting from the trough will push fronts onshore through the period.
and Wednesday After a cold mostly sunny morning, clouds will increase today ahead of an approaching trough developing across the central Plains. While surface temperatures in the lower 30s across the far north seem cold enough for snow tonight, the abundant cloud cover should mean evening lows with increasing temperatures later at night. Despite the high QPF amounts, the time range the rain is expected should help minimize flooding concerns. Highs on Wednesday will be well below normal, with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.
720 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 High pressure will extend into our region today through Wednesday.
856 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 At 8 am CDT a warm frontal boundary extended from low pressure across western South Dakota through eastern Nebraska. During the day today a short wave trough will move from Wyoming through the northern plains. Plenty of moisture expected from the low level jet should bring some moderate rainfall to the James Valley, where chances of rain showers are likely - especially this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be a little warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday, as they top out in the low and middle 80s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to prevail over the ArkLaMiss. Skies will be mostly sunny today with highs in the low/mid 80s. Little will change tonight with lows falling into the low/mid 50s.
Expect a chance of thunderstorms and cooler than normal daytime temperatures through the weekend as a weak low pressure system moves into Arizona. A trough of low pressure is dropping south through the Great Basin this afternoon while deep monsoon moisture (1-2 inch Pwat) resides over Arizona. The low will provide enough lift for some storms to continue through the night tonight. Saturday is expected to be active again as the trough moves over the state.
112 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will bring pleasant weather to NY and PA tonight through Saturday.
515 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
Short term models are in good agreement that this area of activity will continue to lift to the north this morning as the 850 mb warm front moves into the southern CWA. We will likely see a decrease in this activity by late morning though as the low- level jet begins to weaken and back with time. Thus there is some potential for isolated afternoon pop up showers, or some nocturnal activity associated with the low-level jet.
153 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Upper pattern has a high pressure ridge centered over the SE U. while a broad upper trough extends down from Canada across the Intermountain West.
327 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening.
312 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. Afternoon temps in the upper 90s appear likely and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will likely reach the critical threshold of 105. Tonight, expect clear to partly cloudy skies and it will feel muggy as sfc dewpoints recover into the lower 70s. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. With the upper ridge to our north on Saturday, northeasterly flow will set in, though with very little change in airmass and highs again in the mid 90s.
/issued 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An area of showers continues across the Permian Basin and South Plains early this morning, along the western fringe of the upper level ridge. A few showers have also crept into portions of Central Texas as a weak upper level low meanders across the Texas coast. A little more cloud cover possible this afternoon as the better low level moisture starts to move in from the Gulf of Mexico, so temperatures will be near or a couple degree cooler than yesterday.
Strong upper ridge centered over the southern Appalachians lifts slowly northeast toward the Mid- Atlantic coastal region through Saturday.
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Current thinking is that High Pressure. latest guidance is warmer than previous numbers and have bumped highs up a degree or so. The area remains under an upper level ridge through the weekend.
Upper ridging continues to spin over the southeast United States. satellite and radar loops show a textbook ring of fire pattern with clouds and storms flowing around the periphery of the ridge. With the center of the ridging over Virginia and North Carolina, the LMK CWA sits on the edge of the ridge, just enough into it to squelch most convection. We'll get little relief Saturday night with muggy conditions and the mercury only dropping into the lower and middle 70s.
Surface dewpoints are coming down under the drying, now mostly in the 30s to lower 40s across the higher elevations with even some middle 20s up at Leadville. Farther east across the plains, dews are still in the lower to middle 50s. Based on the high resolution models and available moisture, the far southeast plains are the most likely area to see some action this evening. It'll be a little warmer, though, with highs warming around 5 degrees or so in most areas, getting temperatures back pretty close to average for this time of year.
1217 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE An upper level trough will deepen over the Great Basin today and tonight, forming a weak but closed low over western AZ by Saturday. Strengthening low level convergence under the developing low pressure system west of NM will draw moisture into SE and E central areas tonight with another round of MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds probable along and southeast of a line from ROW to TCC early Saturday Morning. A weak upper level low near Las Vegas, Nevada is expected to draw up additional monsoon moisture for greater shower and thunderstorm coverage during the weekend.
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. Tonight, low level moisture and instability axis extends roughly sw- ne in vicinity of the highway 1 corridor. With the core of the mid/upper level anti-cyclone covering the northern piedmont and foothills, subsidence over our northern counties will likely inhibit any convective development. Otherwise, expect clear-partly cloudy skies with overnight temperatures in the low-mid 70s. Core of mid/upper level ridge drifts northward into central Appalachians/northern Mid-Atlantic during this period. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with overnight temps in the low- mid 70s.
Upper air analysis last evening showed south to southwesterly flow over Texas with a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. Water vapor satellite imagery showed mid-level moisture moving in from the Gulf around the back side of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the southeast. In the short term, the upper ridge will continue to move to the northeast and heights will fall over Texas.
222 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight and Saturday.
We will have to see how this pans out but will continue scattered chances in the near term forecast this morning due to the high moisture content and a weak disturbances moving across the area. Due to the high moisture content, these storms will be efficient rain producers.
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Upper level trough will move east across the Dakotas overnight and into Saturday, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Sat images show increased lift/wv transport ahead of the trough axis now moving through NV. This looks a bit underdone given respectable llvl moisture and a source of lift as the main trough axis moves through the Central Rockies today. Convection should wind down pretty quickly after sunset as the best upper forcing shifts to the east, with only isold showers and a couple storms lingering over the higher terrain and far SE Plains this evening. Highs today will be a bit warmer than they were on Thu. in the lower 80s over portions of the Plains and 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys. Broad troughieness which has been over the western CONUS the last several days will gradually transition to a more weak westerly flow pattern.
A very weak short wave trough will pass overhead later this morning following the one from yesterday evening. Thunder and shower chances should be down notably Saturday following ejection of the weak high level trough to the northeast with weaker southwest flow aloft and building heights. We are retaining slight chance for late in the day only in our northwest where heights will be least in advance of the next upper trough system starting to take shape over the lower Colorado far to the west. Latest runs seem slightly deeper with this low, though the deeper yet WRF/NAM is an unfavored outlier.
Initial development was in Mississippi but some development is beginning to occur eastward into our northwest counties, and this is where the highest rain chances will likely be today. Meanwhile the mid-level anticyclone will continue to lift northeastward into the Mid- Atlantic.
A weak area of low pressure is located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas.
328 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening.
649 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight behind a cold front. High pressure builds in out of Canada on Saturday with another warm day in the 70s and 80s.
301 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
235 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery showing an upper level trough dropping into the Great Basin with convection firing out ahead of it over the Wasatch and Uintas in Utah and the higher terrain over western Colorado. Expecting cooler temperatures tonight, similar to yesterday, due to the rain cooled air with some light snow again at the higher peaks mainly above 12kft. On Saturday, the upper level trough will split with a cutoff closed low forming over southern California into Arizona, with our CWA in the deformation zone between the split trough. This will result in another active day on Saturday with storms more numerous over the higher terrain from the Bookcliffs southward with some valleys being impacted later in the day.
Temps will cool overnight to the low to mid 70s. High pressure will remain anchored over the southeast through the weekend.
147 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016 17Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated two short wave troughs approaching the area. The latter trough will likely be the primary trigger for precipitation chances this afternoon and evening. Last few scans of visible satellite show an increase in cumulus ahead of short wave trough and its sfc reflection. Relatively high mixing ratios and CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range along and southeast of this boundary will allow thunderstorm development mainly during the afternoon and will focus in the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA where instability is the highest.
110 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will push east across the great lakes today through saturday.
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad subtropical ridge across the southeastern CONUS with a trough digging into the northwestern CONUS. Main threat will be locally strong winds, but the backbuilding nature of some of the convection in the high PWAT airmass (around 2 inches) will also lead to some localized flash flooding concerns as well. IFR to even LIFR cigs at times continue to persist north of a warm front at COU and UIN early this afternoon. The low clouds and another mid- level deck has kept the region fairly stable early this afternoon.
A light E-NE flow is expected through the period as a trough lingers off the coast /with the exception of E-SE at LRD/ however may see winds increase out of the SE at CRP-ALI with the sea breeze passage this afternoon.
Convective temps currently running in the lower 90s.
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
Southwesterly flow will remain at 500MB, ahead of the main trough that will push into the western Dakotas late tonight, and swing over the eastern Dakotas Saturday afternoon.
The highest amounts remain still shy of flash flood guidance, but continued duration will increase threat of localized flash flooding this morning. This places areas along and north of the Interstate 70 corridor within the highest potential for additional thunderstorms later today.
316 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will dominate northeast California and western Nevada through the weekend, bringing near to slightly above average temperatures and mainly light winds.
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
Upper level high pressure was centered over the southern Appalachians this morning, with an upper trough over the rockies and zonal to west- southwest flow from the Great Lakes region back towards the four corners area. Southerly flow around the periphery of the upper high continues to pump gulf moisture northward into Arkansas over the next couple of days. though with waning influence as the upper high shifts east towards the Atlantic seaboard. Late tonight and into Saturday the northern Rockies trough will move off towards the Great Lakes region.
Meanwhile, a mid level trough has developed over East Texas and the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. The retreating ridge and developing trough will both be at least partially responsible for bringing chances of showers and storms across North and Central Texas for the next several days. A deep southerly fetch in place around the eastern flank of the trough has already ushered in high levels of Gulf moisture over far East Texas and Louisiana. and the highest POPs will remain focused across the eastern half of the forecast area today where the highest moisture levels will reside. As the Central Plains trough pushes east over the weekend, the Southeast/Mid Atlantic ridge will expand back to the west and strengthen slightly across the northeast third of the region.
127 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will bring pleasant weather to NY and PA tonight through Saturday.
A low pressure trough was progressing east through Montana, Idaho and Wyoming today with some energy digging south through Oregon toward the NRN Sierra's which is expected to shear east through the Great Basin tonight with little or no impact on sensible weather.
A dry cold front will move through the area this evening.
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Manual 12z upper-air analysis showed a long-wave trough from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the southern Rockies with a downstream sub-tropical high centered over the southern Appalachians. At the surface, 18z mesoanalysis placed a low over northeast Kansas -- coincident with the upper-air system-- with an associated warm frontal segment extending northeast through northwest Missouri into south-central Iowa. Showers and thunderstorms now developing over northeast Kansas in association with the above-mentioned impulse are expected to spread northeast along the warm front with portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa being impacted by this activity. Mid-level heights will rebound on Saturday into Saturday night with the passage of the polar-branch trough (mentioned above) to our northeast.
Area of convection continues to shift north in recent hours with nearby radar wind profiles showing veering trends in the lower levels. RAP analysis indicates several weak waves upstream in moderate southwest flow aloft with a larger scale trough working east across the central and northern Rockies. Convection may be ongoing Saturday morning as the southern end of the Northern Plains trough moves through the Central Plains. The warm front should lift north of the area with southerly winds developing through the morning hours.