Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE REGION. /ISSUED 403 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL OVER-RIDING SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER LOWER ACADIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
/ISSUED 409 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WERE UNWINDING THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. RESULT WILL BE MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT FLUNG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS ALSO ON THE LOW END OF BREEZY BEHIND THIS WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
403 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL OVER-RIDING SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER LOWER ACADIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
611 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Water vapor imagery depicts an impressive closed upper level low pressure system near the Wichita, Kansas area. As we head into this morning, that upper level low will pull northeast towards the Corn Belt. We will actually see a weak cold front slide through the area late tonight, but it will be "dry" in nature. Temperatures will be fairly close to normal with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
659 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 JUST RECEIVED TWO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN FROM MOUNTRAIL COUNTY. HAVE ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO ZONES. ON THE WARM FRONT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT TROUGH AND JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA PUSHING TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE COLD FRONT NOW INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT NEAR GREAT FALLS MONTANA. A LEADING EDGE OF WEAK REFLECTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AND AWAIT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR INTRODUCING THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MID MORNING.
AS THE WIND PROFILE VEERS SLIGHTLY TODAY TO THE SE, IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND WESTERN GULF COLD FRONT, A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE DAY FOR HENDRY/GLADES/COLLIER FROM THE GULF WATERS, WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SLOWS AND BEGINS TO STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
641 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 47 66 40 / 100 40 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 49 63 37 / 100 70 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 48 63 37 / 100 50 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 52 63 36 / 100 90 10 0 NC.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
546 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 UPDATE/AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.
INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE IA MOVES ACROSS SRN WI ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SRN WI IN THE AFT. THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL HELP STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THE AFT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40- 45 MPH.
COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
506 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNLSOPING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS NEARBY. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
AND OUR TYPICAL EVENTS ARE IN THE LOWER 570S RANGE IN NOVEMBER. 41 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GRADIENT SQUEEZE ASCD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BRISK SE WINDS WILL EASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE APCHG FRONTAL TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMER.
403 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THE FORECAST AREA DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH. POSSIBLY LONGER GIVEN THE SE FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS. FAVORED THE MILDER MINS WHERE RAIN IS LEAST LIKELY BUT THE COOLER GFS MOS MINS WHERE RAIN MAY OCCUR.
300 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND DRY MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT IS ALL THAT'S LEFT. WITH SHALLOW COOLER AIR INVADING VIA GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH PRETTY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
344 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN U.
401 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015 Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle will slowly move east as an inverted trough move west under the ridge and across the southern CWA today. As the week goes on the upper ridge will strengthen over the Western U.
A narrow h7 vorticity lobe is likely passing across the eastern NE/western IA portion of the cold front. The cold front is expected to reach the far southwestern counties before stalling Tuesday morning. Cooler temperatures expected tomorrow due to most of the CWA being under an easterly surface wind and a good deal of cloud cover. Wednesday: Models diverging a bit on location of the warm front on Wednesday with the latest NAM and SREF now stalling the front across northern MO while the GFS and ECMWF lift it into southern IA before stalling.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING A GRIP ON OUR WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL LINGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY WHILE AREAS EAST OF HERE MAY MIX JUST A LITTLE. I EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO TOUCH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES FOR A LITTLE LONGER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS ERN MN. BREEZY NW WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY.
408 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA. FORECAST - WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH PICKS UP A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS. A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN ALOFT.
159 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNNY TO START TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE IRON RANGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COOLER UP NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS.
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK ALTHOUGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND. TODAY WILL SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX FROM 98 TO ABOUT 104 DEGREES.
639 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
326 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS TRICKLING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WARM/VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE KILX CWA. THEN WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN TO NEAR GUIDANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD BEEN GOING FOR. AT THIS TIME THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE POTENTIALLY LOCKED UP WITH STABLE EASTERLY FLOW BUT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LIKELY ENOUGH TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
359 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS THINNING MORNING HIGH CLOUDS TEMPER INSOLATION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF ADVANCING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES DUE TO VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND.
606 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
334 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge is currently sprawled from AZ east into the southern plains, with an upper level low moving west into northern Mexico and the Big Bend area on the southern side of the ridge. This weak upper level low is expected to continue moving slowly westward today, keeping our area largely under the control of the ridge. Isolated showers are affecting northern Mexico and the lower Trans Pecos currently, and there may be an isolated shower or two later today, mainly south of a Brownwood to Sterling City line.
325 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED TO B CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXTEND WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF CNU AND EXTENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF P28, THEN WEST TO NORTH OF LBL. TONIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE NE BORDER. ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO AND WESTERN NE SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NE.
429 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND LATEST PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES NEAR AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS WE CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL TURN WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AVIATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT; AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH LATER TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN AND STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
438 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE CARRIED EAST BY THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
255 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY WITH FRONT OVER KANSAS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
650 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AVIATION COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.
640 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY, AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TODAY. FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO PRECIP JUST IN ONEIDA AND NRN ONONDAGA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT. LINE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST. WITH THE HIGH CAPE OVER 1K AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN THE STORMS FROM NW TO SE.
DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER CEILINGS ALLOWING FOR VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES ITS WWD PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE WEST TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A LULL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING DAY AS WE WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH. HAIL THREAT IS PRETTY LOW WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT. WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIKELY LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WITH MORE PATCHY ON THE RIDGES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
518 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT. ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR MUCH THIS WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL (500MB) RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. COASTAL PLAINS TROF IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS AS OF 21Z. OUR CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN A NW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OR PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OR UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND 70S-80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS MOST TO THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE NW FLOW WILL BE E OF THE MTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE UPSWING ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION.
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A MUCH QUIETER FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH A LARGE COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 80S GENERALLY.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL COME TO DOMINATE NORTHERN COLORADO WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTROLLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE 500MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE WORKING IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH CONTINUING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD MOVING FURTHER INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT STREAMER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER VALLEY WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO MAKING IT ACROSS THE BORDER THIS MORNING.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NE MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TX. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS TROUGH IS PROGD TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ALLOWING THE PERIPHERYOF A MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST TO SHIFT ESE AND EDGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A REGION OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL CRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
A SLIGHTLY COOLER. BUT MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BRINGING COOLER TEMPS TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREA.
339 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. HEIGHTS BUMP UP A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REPOSITIONING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE MIGHT END UP A BIT COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN THE CLEARING. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH AND DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A LEE TROUGH WILL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PIEDMONT. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER TN/AR WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY.
449 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
THIS IS DUE TO PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS AND GULF STATES.
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY IS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR AND DRY START TO THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 80S WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS.
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT (FROM THE WEST) AND AT THE SFC (TO THE EAST) WILL HELP TO KEEP THE CURRENT TREND OF ISOLATED MOSTLY DIURNAL POPS IN THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. PER THESE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS A CHANGE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN IS LIKELY FORTHCOMING AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST AMPLIFIES AND A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.
427 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY, AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TODAY. FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO PRECIP JUST IN ONEIDA AND NRN ONONDAGA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT. LINE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST. WITH THE HIGH CAPE OVER 1K AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN THE STORMS FROM NW TO SE.
256 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
419 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ALOFT - A RIDGE SPRAWLED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL STATES WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE - A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES INTO QUEBEC AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.