Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The southern trough is part of the split-flow jet regime present across the SRN CONUS and is the primary driver for our windy conditions this afternoon. Alas, however, the polar jet will play into our weather as well as it helps to force a cold front through the region on Wednesday morning. Overnight, expecting boundary winds to diminish but not completely decouple from the low level flow.
1058 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure centered north of the area will continue to shift eastward, with light low level winds out of the N/NW gradually becoming N/NE into the afternoon. High pressure north of the waters will continue a relatively light N/NW flow around 5-10 knots that will veer N/NE late this afternoon and into tonight.
239 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Discussion/Marine - Blustery and Mild Tonight Ahead of a Cold Front Tomorrow We'll see our max 24 hour temp tonight as temps rise through this evening. Temperatures will rise to above freezing tonight as we sit in the warm sector, and overnight winds will gust towards 25-35 mph. A brisk Arctic cold front will then sweep through the area Wednesday morning shifting winds northwesterly with temperatures falling from the 30s into the teens and 20s by Wednesday afternoon.
To the northwest, a cold front and pattern change is expected to affect the area. Cold front moves through area this evening. Discussion: Cold front is just west of Minneapolis this afternoon. Largescale NW flow is expected to usher in this cold front and cooler air. With the warmer temps today, there is an ice crust that has formed that should limit overall blowing and drifting post frontal.
All terminals will be impacted by llws ahead of an approaching cold front. Today Through Wednesday Night Current surface map shows high pressure centered over MS/LA, with weak southerly flow developing over the area. Low level moisture will increase today and tonight, as high pressure shift further eastward and low and mid-level flow become more southwesterly.
208 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 A strong arctic cold front is still on track to pass through most of the area from northwest to southeast overnight tonight. Deterministic guidance is a bit uncertain on the strength of the low/mid level frontogenetic forcing, with the NAM being on the stronger end of things while the ECMWF is noticeably weaker.
/AJ/ A warmer and quiet rest of the morning is in store for the region. A high pressure to the east will gradually cause more uniform southerly flow into our area. This will cause highs to be a little warmer than yesterday, with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the east to the mid 60s in the west. This, along with partly to mostly sunny skies today, will result in warmer temperatures across the region. Highs today will range from the mid 50s in the northeast to the lower 60s in the southwest.
Still looks like rain most of the day, which will help melt the rest of the snow and add to the minor flooding across the area, then a transition to a sleet/freezing rain/snow mix followed by snow for the remaining moisture late Wednesday night. Should the cold air move in sooner, or moisture hang out longer in the sub freezing airmass, we could be looking at more snow. The freezing rain may also put a glaze of ice on cold surfaces Wednesday night, but as of right now, it does not look like much.
However, conditions will be changing Wednesday! A strong cold front will move into Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 8 AM, moving south along I-20 10 AM to 11 AM.
This will moderate afternoon highs into the lower 70s, above average for this time of the year.
1020 AM MST Tue Jan 18 2022 A cold front crossing the area this morning will be followed by gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures.
TFJ Cold front dropping through the region early this morning, with increasing north to northwest winds and falling temperatures.
129 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure was shifting southeast allowing south flow and warm advection to develop. Low level cyclogensis will result over the Red River valley, owing to a developing southwesterly LLJ and theta-E advection zone across the lower MS valley, mid South and TN valley. However, the models are in good agreement now that some sleet or freezing rain/drizzle will occur at the tail end of the stratiform region of the MCS as temperatures plunge to and just below freezing. 05 inches are indicated amongst the ensemble plumes, but will lean toward the lower end.
Primary forecast concern is the Arctic cold front moving through later today, bringing much colder temperatures, bitterly cold wind chills, some blowing/drifting snow, and the potential for freezing of meltwater on roads and other surfaces. The cold front will sweep across the area this afternoon into early evening, with gusty northwest winds and plummeting temperatures. Temperatures will warm above freezing across the entire area today (except perhaps the far northwest where it will top out around freezing) before temperatures fall behind the front.
Building high pressure / increasing subsidence will bring an end to lingering snow across northern zones by early afternoon. Low pressure propagating sewd across the Great Lakes will provide the chance for precipitation on Wednesday, with likely a frontal passage that could result in progressive precip chances of rain/snow mix as temperature will be mild, highs in the 40s. The cold front will stall south of the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will develop along the stalled boundary and snow will develop generally south of I-70. Still large differences in model solutions on how far south the front will stop and the track of the developing low pressure.
While we are not expected to see any precip with this we will see a strong arctic front pull through this evening which will usher in some much cooler temperatures. Kuroski (Issued 311 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022) Today through Wednesday: Winds will be shifting to southerly early this morning as warm air advection begins to kick in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This area of low pressure will be moving eastward along the US/Canadian border through tonight. As this low moves over Lake Superior an arctic front will move across Wisconsin bringing much colder temperatures and brisk northwesterly winds.
Temperatures are rising nicely this morning especially over the western half of Kentucky where there is less snow cover and farther away from high pressure centered over the southeast U. but with temperatures in the 20s, do have to keep an eye out for freezing fog potentially making for some patchy slick surfaces. Overnight, a fairly stout LLJ will develop ahead of a cold front. The warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front will be characterized by scant surface moisture recovery, but modest isentropic lifting. Going into the weekend, broad cyclonic flow dominates most of the CONUS as dome of high pressure reinforces in the northeast Pacific\West Coast.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ A tightening pressure gradient will keep southerly winds elevated and maintain milder conditions tonight ahead of a cold front that will usher in a robust 1045mb area of high pressure that will emerge across the Upper Great Plains.
A warmer and quiet rest of the morning is in store for the region. A high pressure to the east will gradually cause more uniform southerly flow into our area. This will cause highs to be a little warmer than yesterday, with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the east to the mid 60s in the west. This, along with partly to mostly sunny skies today, will result in warmer temperatures across the region. Highs today will range from the mid 50s in the northeast to the lower 60s in the southwest.
High pressure over the Southeast U. Afternoon highs will be seasonably in the low 70s.
A fairly decent difference of overnight lows is expected between the ridge tops and sheltered valleys. The southwest low-level jet will produce breezy conditions across the high elevations.
With this instability and returning gulf moisture, precipitation chances will increase ahead of a very potent cold front.
High pressure is forecast to build over the San Joaquin Valley over the next few days as the upper low that has been giving us high clouds moves east out of the area. Morning rounds of Tule Fog look possible as the ridge remains overhead for the next few days. Ridge of high pressure is starting to build over the Eastern Pacific ocean today. This has allowed solar heating this morning, which is allowing temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon. Clear skies under the ridge of high pressure would favor another round of Tule Fog for tonight as the lower atmosphere will be able to cool off with little to no mixing. The ridge of high pressure will allow for more chances of morning Tule Fog formation across the valley for the next few days.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Key Messages: - Arctic cold front arriving tonight.
The main focus continues to be on the arctic cold front that will cross our region Wednesday, followed by a brief bout of wintry precip Wed night.
439 PM MST Tue Jan 18 2022 Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains along an anchored baroclinic zone.
Partial clearing has taken place as the high is moving closer and this will continue overnight allowing temperatures to plummet into the -10s by Wednesday morning.
The center of cool high pressure over the SE has edged to the GA/SC coast this evening and proximity of the feature will keep light to calm winds for overnight with good radiational cooling expected overnight. Temps however should be just a bit warmer than last night with lows in the upper 30s in northern Lake and inland Volusia counties, low 40s through the rural interior, mid 40s along the I-4 corridor, and mid to upper 40s along the coast. Temperatures wl warm into the low 70s with pleasant conditions overall.
200 PM PST Tue Jan 18 2022 Residual moisture and a final wave associated with the trough of low pressure will bring isolated showers through this evening, especially in San Diego County.
957 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
High pressure was shifting southeast allowing south flow and warm advection to develop. Low level cyclogensis will result over the Red River valley, owing to a developing southwesterly LLJ and theta-E advection zone across the lower MS valley, mid South and TN valley. However, the models are in good agreement now that some sleet or freezing rain/drizzle will occur at the tail end of the stratiform region of the MCS as temperatures plunge to and just below freezing. 05 inches are indicated amongst the ensemble plumes, but will lean toward the lower end.
Weak upper level ridge ahead of approaching warm front will move through the area tonight.
414 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Sunshine and temperatures above freezing this afternoon have done a good job working on the snow pack, with area web cams and visible satellite pictures showing a rapid decrease, especially west of the Blue Grass. High pressure moving off to the east tonight will keep a brisk southerly breeze in place and high clouds will increase in coverage as we go through the night. Given all of the above, temperatures will likely not drop much tonight and should stay above freezing (other than the usual cold sheltered valleys in the east). On Wednesday a cold front will cross the region from northwest to southeast, accompanied by overcast skies and widespread light rain with temperatures in the 40s.
Snow showers are beginning to move into northern Wyoming, with a cold front pushing down as well. Wednesday will be colder behind the front, most noticeably east of the Divide which will see highs 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today.
A Canadian cold front is bisecting the region this afternoon.
Looking at the soundings, winds continue to be gusty and good mixing occurring due to the cold air advection behind the cold front. Winds will start to decrease overnight as winds aloft become lighter, with the high pressure system moving in. Quiet weather expected for Wednesday into Wednesday night with the high pressure system moving in across the upper Midwest. That pattern being a mid level ridge along the Pacific coast, with ridging downstream over the central/eastern CONUS.
Freezing fog is possible late this evening into Wednesday morning which may result in reduced visibilities.
Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains along an anchored baroclinic zone.
Surface temperatures are rising and most locations are now above freezing. - Blustery and Mild Tonight Ahead of a Cold Front Tomorrow We'll see our max 24 hour temp tonight as temps rise through this evening. Temperatures will rise to above freezing tonight as we sit in the warm sector, and overnight winds will gust towards 25-35 mph. A brisk Arctic cold front will then sweep through the area Wednesday morning shifting winds northwesterly with temperatures falling from the 30s into the teens and 20s by Wednesday afternoon.
810 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure will continue to dominate through Wednesday with clear skies and rather cool temperatures again tonight followed by a mostly sunny and warmer day Wednesday with temperatures back near normal.
408 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
539 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 As of early afternoon, mild temps in the 30s were observed across most of the region ahead of a low pressure system tracking across the US-Canadian border region and associated cold front quickly progressing southeast across MN. Expect gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range overnight as lapse rates steepen behind the cold front.
As the snow tapers off completely, we will remain under the influence of this cold high pressure through Wednesday.
The low clouds will last throughout the day but are expected to lift to VFR conditions by the late morning. Winds will continue to be out of the north and northeast through the TAF period and will become gusty behind a cold front beginning in the morning.
Luckily the only gravity waves to be found this afternoon are in the High Plains of CO ahead of a strong arctic front. Our southern mountains still get brushed with some of this weak ascent and will catch some of the high level mositure moving through. Light snow amounts up to an inch continues to be forecast through sunrise over the high eastern San Juans.
High pressure will be over the region the next several days.
648 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
Confidence is marginal in the lower CIGS so will monitor trends and update if it becomes more likely.
Winds are expected to remain slightly elevated enough to keep temperatures from falling to the lower 50s tonight.
622 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Aviation - Blustery and Mild Tonight Ahead of a Cold Front Tomorrow We'll see our max 24 hour temp tonight as temps rise through this evening. Temperatures will rise to above freezing tonight as we sit in the warm sector, and overnight winds will gust towards 25-35 mph. A brisk Arctic cold front will then sweep through the area Wednesday morning shifting winds northwesterly with temperatures falling from the 30s into the teens and 20s by Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler area-wide for the day tomorrow, with mountain and valley snow showers.
1254 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing the risk for rain then snow showers. A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. Warmer air will ride northeastward ahead of the boundary allowing temperatures to moderate. Today's cold front will settle in south of the area this evening. The highest QPF, and in turn, snowfall, will be right along the front. The highest accumulations would be placed from the Mason-Dixon line southward. This trough will also increase the cold air advection, allowing for temperatures to rapidly decrease overnight.
20Z surface analysis shows a dry cold front from near Marshall, MN to O'Neill, NE evident by a marked shift in winds to the northwest. Will see some spotty observations near or slightly above Wind Advisory thresholds (sustained 30 mph and/or gusts to 45 mph), especially along the Highway 14 corridor, but not expecting widespread windy conditions and will hold off on issuing an advisory. Look for nighttime lows in the middle teens below zero across the Buffalo Ridge to the single digits below zero along the Missouri River.
1103 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 As of early afternoon, mild temps in the 30s were observed across most of the region ahead of a low pressure system tracking across the US-Canadian border region and associated cold front quickly progressing southeast across MN. Expect gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range overnight as lapse rates steepen behind the cold front. Cooler arctic air is still expected to make its way into the area Thursday.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 34 39 26 35 / 30 90 30 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 32 36 23 33 / 30 90 40 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 49 30 35 21 33 / 40 90 40 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 30 34 19 32 / 30 100 60 20 30.
1042 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Low amplitude upper level trough just west crossing New Mexico late this evening and will move over the Texas South Plains region as well early Wednesday morning. Upper trough will pass east just as a cold front moves southward out of the Texas Panhandle near and after daybreak with winds swinging around to the north-northeast and increasing close to 20 knots by mid to late morning. Low level wind shear (LLWS) remains in the TAF forecasts for KLBB and KPVW with westerly flow just above the ground late tonight, then all locations for a short while just behind the cold front.
Breezy to gusty offshore winds are expected in the higher terrain of the North Bay, East Bay and San Francisco Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday.
A slow moving warm front will gradually push north to northeastward tonight through Wednesday night with a occasional light rain to the west and north of the Rogue Valley. A weakening cold front will follow late Thursday into Thursday night with a continued slight chance of rain limited to northern Douglas County and northward.
Low clouds and fog remain widespread over the lower elevations this evening, with a Dense Fog Advisory continuing for our Oregon zones, the western Magic Valley, and the Idaho zones south of the Snake River.
00Z upper air analysis this evening indicates a mid-level trough axis over portions of the Central and Southern Plains this evening. 02Z surface analysis places a developing area of low pressure in the Red River Valley of Texas while a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Carolinas. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is bringing some milder air up into the Lower Mississippi Valley. But with frontal depth increasing, the 290K surface as a whole will be lifting at a good clip, likely enough to generate light snow or flurries, following a brief rain- freezing rain and sleet transition. A quick look at the 18Z HRRR depicts Memphis being dry- slotted, with no freezing or frozen precip after rain tapers off by early evening.
1054 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cold front draped across central KS this evening will drop into northeast OK late tonight and push through the entire forecast area by 18Z. Overall impacts are expected to remain low, but could see some slick spots develop on bridges and overpasses as temperatures quickly fall below freezing.
1135 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Mild conditions will be in store for the rest of today ahead of the next cold front expected late tonight.
1215 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Temperatures warm Wednesday and Thursday as southerly flow strengthens ahead of an arctic cold front.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper-level trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, kicking off a few -SHRA, little of which is making to the surface, judging by the 00Z KMAF sounding. To the north, mesoanalysis shows the next cold front entering the Texas Panhandle at 07Z. Tonight, temperatures plunge precipitously as the front surges through, with all but the Rio Grande Valley dropping to freezing overnight, and a hard freeze for most locations. Models consistently develop precip over the northwest zones this evening, then ESE along the front overnight and Thursday morning, w/best chances along the front from Van Horn through the lower Trans Pecos Thursday morning.
223 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Today will be much colder behind a cold front that moved through our area. The cold air will be reinforced on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 20s. Wind chills will remain in the low teens throughout the day.
The combination of these clouds and a steady southerly breeze will help to keep temperatures on the milder side overnight, with lows in the lower 40s across most of the Valley (with upper 30s possible along the Plateau). However, the models are in good agreement now that some sleet or freezing rain/drizzle will occur at the tail end of the stratiform region of the MCS as temperatures plunge to and just below freezing. 05 inches are indicated amongst the ensemble plumes, but will lean toward the lower end. However, that may not be the case atop the highest elevations above 1800 ft in Franklin County TN near Sewanee and perhaps northern Jackson County AL where temps may barely reach 32F. Forecast lows drop into the lower 20s Thursday night, despite cloud cover due to continued cold advection.
Weak upper level ridge ahead of approaching warm front will move through the area tonight. Warm front moving into the area later Wednesday followed by a cold front Thursday.
104 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday. A cold front will move through Thursday evening, then stall off the coast.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front draped across central KS this evening will drop into northeast OK late tonight and push through the entire forecast area by 18Z. Overall impacts are expected to remain low, but could see some slick spots develop on bridges and overpasses as temperatures quickly fall below freezing.
VFR is forecast to remain prevalent through Wednesday afternoon before a gradual lowering of the cloud decks to MVFR thresholds between 1500-2500 ft AGL is anticipated along and northwest of the I-65 corridor Wednesday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A westerly to southwesterly flow aloft continues across the north central Gulf Coast region tonight, well in advance of a short wave trough moving from the Four Corners to the southern Rocky Mountains. A strong cold front will surge southward toward northern MS/AL by late Wednesday afternoon and will gradually sink southeastward toward the I-65 corridor through Thursday morning. The cold front will surge southward across our forecast area late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, allowing much colder temperatures to spread across our region along increasing northerly winds.
359 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing the risk for rain then snow showers. A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. Warmer air will ride northeastward ahead of the boundary allowing temperatures to moderate. Today's cold front will settle in south of the area this evening. The highest QPF, and in turn, snowfall, will be right along the front. The highest accumulations would be placed from the Mason-Dixon line southward. This trough will also increase the cold air advection, allowing for temperatures to rapidly decrease overnight.
Clouds will be on the increase overnight ahead of the next system as winds turn out of the north along the cold front passage. Temperatures above freezing through early Wednesday morning will keep light precipitation as all liquid at onset. As the cold air drops temperatures, light rain is expected to transition to a light wintry mix of freezing drizzle and sleet. Ice accretion amounts are generally a few hundredths across portions of southern Missouri, primarily in the higher terrain along the Ozark Plateau. As a result, light wintry mix can be expected as surface temperatures drop below freezing.