Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer weather will return later in the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over our area.
Stalled frontal boundary remains over the Carolina into the day Tue, with high pressure off the New England coast leading to onshore flow and continued unsettled wx, characterized by periodic shras/tstms. As with today, the precip will be difficult to time and it will not rain the entire day, with Pops in the chance range most areas (slight chance over the Lower MD Eastern Shore). highs mainly in the mid 80s with lows Tue night in the low/mid 70s with drying conditions. Weak waves of moisture/instability will rotate around the periphery of the stacked mid-upper level high, which will result in 20-30% POPs acrs the area thru Sat ngt. The Pops will gradually increase a bit more fm WNW to ESE Sun aftn thru Mon, as a pre-frntl trough pushes into the region and the cold front moves closer fm the WNW.
250 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 Remnant cloud cover from and upper level weakness on the back side of an upper level ridge has resulted in much cooler temperatures across the eastern half of our Four State Region today.
555 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 A broad area of low pressure over AL/GA will drift westward over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to ridge into the southeastern states. Circulation around a broad area of low pressure over GA/AL bringing a moist flow from the Atlantic into the area. The high low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling should help support stratus development late tonight. Upper level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico east across Florida will slowly retrograde during the period.
Sprawling high pressure now centered over Lower Michigan this morning will continue to be the dominant feature for the forecast. While all of the models are in agreement with this feature, it is the low level moisture profile from 850 mbs and below where differences are noted. 00z NAM brings this moisture as far north as the ridgeline in Southeast MI while all of the others keeps it in Northwest and North Central OH. Even without the high pops of the NAM.
Upper level disturbances rotating south to north along the western periphery of an upper level ridge will provided chances for showers and storms Tuesday. While we will be under high pressure, lobes of moisture may drift up into our unstable air mass giving aftn tstms.
652 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will cross the area tonight into Tuesday, then move east Tuesday night.
A slow-moving upper level low was centered over the Wenatchee Valley this afternoon. Proximity of the low will continue the cool, showery weather through tonight.
326 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a weakening mid/upper level ridge over Texas, with an upper level trough and deeper tropical moisture from the Gulf South into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Upper level ridging to the west is still expected to weaken as the week goes on. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge east of Florida, will strengthen and build to the west. This will push the remnant upper level trough and deeper tropical moisture over the Gulf South to the west and around the Lower Mississippi Valley area by mid to late week.
The primary concerns will be in the Wed-Sun timeframe as the upper low currently over central Georgia drifts slowly westward to place cold pool over the central Gulf States later in the week. Surface response to upper low pressure over SE U.
A low-level ridge persists across southern Florida, while a nearly stationary, low-level cyclonic gyre persists over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tomorrow the upper level low currently over central Washington will move over northwest Montana causing showers and thunderstorms over much of northwestern and central western Montana. Temperatures will be much cooler with 80s in central Idaho with 70s in most of the valleys of Montana.
The low will slowly drift west and weaken into an elongated trough this period. Isolated heavy rain showers will be possible east as well due mainly to better diurnal instability further away from the Low. Trough of low pressure will slowly drift west and weaken over Mississippi/Alabama and strong mid/upper level high pressure across the western Atlantic will nudge westward into the Carolinas.
An upper low swirling around over the Big Bend of Florida will shift west a bit through the first 24hrs of the forecast.
1257 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 It's another tranquil morning with an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Fog is indeed patchier this morning than yesterday thanks in part to the warmer temperatures. Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday as WAA begins to strengthen a bit on the backside of the high.
A broad upper level trough prevails across much of the West this afternoon. Skies are primarily clear across the region, and onshore flow through the Delta is a bit weaker than yesterday, resulting in temperatures slightly warmer than 24 hours ago. Dry weather with slight gradual warming is expected the next few days as the upper low centered over Washington state drifts eastward.
Stalled frontal boundary remains over the Carolina into the day Tue, with high pressure off the New England coast leading to onshore flow and continued unsettled wx, characterized by periodic shras/tstms. As with today, the precip will be difficult to time and it will not rain the entire day, with Pops in the chance range most areas (slight chance over the Lower MD Eastern Shore). highs mainly in the mid 80s with lows Tue night in the low/mid 70s with drying conditions. By Fri, the Bermuda High starts to drift eastward and allows a low pressure system over the High Plains to finally advance across the Great Lakes Region. Lows each night in the low-mid 70s/mid-upper 70s beaches.
331 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Strong high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. The summer heat is expected to continue during the medium range as the upper level ridge continues to expand northward.
Temperatures will be a little warmer in response to increased sunshine. Cooler temperatures will reflect the increased clouds/chance of precipitation. A low pressure trough that has been relatively stationary along the west coast will begin to shift east and de-amplify Wed night and Thu. The trough will shift into the high plains on Fri as high pressure develops off and along the west coast. KASE and KTEX have the highest probability of being impacted by storms.
351 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 Upper level ridging across the Rockies and low level downslope northwesterly winds will lead to warmer temperatures today.
Have also made some minor tweaks to sky condition and have lowered overnight lows for a few of the higher southwest valleys. An upper level ridge is over the region, providing a fairly nice day over North Central MT. Over Southwest MT lighter winds and cooler valley temperatures are present. On Monday, a Canadian cold front will be approaching the region by late in the day. Temperatures on Monday will still be mild ahead of the cold front.
A lowered stratus deck remains over the lower elevations this afternoon in response to the continued strong inversion. High pressure bringing this inversion will continue across the lower elevations through at least Monday afternoon.
1055 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 High pressure over West Texas will continue to inch its way across Texas tonight and Sunday. /ISSUED 832 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017/ Surface ridging over the state will result in light winds tonight, with temperatures falling into the mid 30s to low 40s in many locations under excellent radiational cooling conditions. A few low-lying or sheltered locations like Conroe may dip into the lower 30s by sunrise, possibly experiencing a (brief) light freeze. As upper level height fields begin to rise, high temperatures to once again rise back above normal and into the lower 70s by Monday.
953 PM PST Sat Jan 28 2017 Strong high pressure will bring persistent low clouds to central Washington and parts of northeast Washington through at least Monday.
242 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 The backside of a weak short wave trough remain over the eastern portion of the CWA creating the slight chance for light snow and flurries through the early afternoon. NW winds will continue to be steady 10-15mph with gusts around 20mph throughout the afternoon making the mid 40s high temperatures feel slightly cooler than it is, especially with more cloud coverage today than yesterday. A clipper system will advect down the backside of the large amplitude ridge over the western US and into the northern midwest Sunday night.
Have also made some minor tweaks to sky condition and have lowered overnight lows for a few of the higher southwest valleys. For now, confidence in LLWS is highest at KHVR/KGTF/KLWT as there is still a NW component to the wind aloft providing adequate directional shear in the low levels. An upper level ridge is over the region, providing a fairly nice day over North Central MT. Over Southwest MT lighter winds and cooler valley temperatures are present. On Monday, a Canadian cold front will be approaching the region by late in the day. Temperatures on Monday will still be mild ahead of the cold front.
Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the lowest readings in low lying areas and river valleys. High temperatures on Sunday will warm up to slightly above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s.
Winds will once again be fairly brisk out of the northwest with high temperatures a bit cooler than what we saw today. Temperatures will respond nicely with highs warming into the lower to middle 50s. We will get clipped by the tail end of a dry cold front Monday night.
Mid/high clouds will continue across northeast Florida through the morning, with clearing from northwest to southwest this afternoon as the trough swings eastward through the region. Highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will remain in the 5-10 mph range overnight behind the trough, and wind chills will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s near daybreak.
NAM mixing heights appeared to have been way over done overnight and likely other than a random gust the higher winds should remain in the mountains overnight with generally under 10 mph across the Lowlands. The main adjustment this package is for higher boundary layer temperatures through the period, ahead of a cold front that crosses early Sunday. An upper level short wave crosses tonight, veering, maybe not the surface flow, but enough of the low level flow to a more favored westerly upslope direction. Another upper level short wave trough drives the aforementioned surface cold front through the area Sunday morning and midday. However, the high boundary layer temperatures are likely to limit afternoon accumulations across the lower terrain. A warm front can then be expected Monday night.
This, along with slightly warmer temperatures, will create elevated wildfire conditions. Monday will be much warmer and drier, but winds are not expected to be as strong. Cold front still forecast to enter northern Oklahoma Monday evening and make slow progress southward Monday night before stalling near the Red River.
Mid level clouds from an approaching s/wv trof were located across Tennessee and will continue to shift southward overnight, mostly likely reaching the I-20 corridor by sunrise. Southwest winds 5-8 knots thru 15z will increase significantly after 16z as a cold front approaches from the north.
325 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region today. Weak high pressure will build in from the west tonight through Monday night.
850 temps will be some 4 to 8 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon and couple that with extensive cloud cover and low level cold advection, should help to keep temperatures from rising much today with afternoon readings in the low to mid 30s accompanied by a gusty northwest wind. The deep trof over the eastern half of the CONUS will continue to slowly modify. At first, the mid level ridge in the west provides some warmer temps for the first couple days of the week.
1132 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Light snow chances tonight, then warmer temperatures for the beginning of the work week, are the main highlights of the forecast.
Otherwise, the main highlight tonight will be another band of light snow developing along and ahead of an advancing warm front. Main highlight occurs Monday as strong winds develop behind a clipper type cold front.
/22/ The CWA remains under the influence of sfc ridging from the west beneath a broad mid-level trough. For the overnight period, a sfc pressure gradient due to the ridging will keep winds light, but not calm enough for boundary layer decoupling, therefore not expecting as much radiational cooling as was observed last night. With high pressure wedged into the CWA from the west, a disturbance embedded in northwest flow aloft will swing through the forecast area overnight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, look for another seasonable night across the CWA as lows fall into the low and middle 30s.
There remains a small threat for some light drizzle or freezing drizzle overnight and on into the day on Sunday. Given this, still think there is a possibility of freezing drizzle, especially in the Sisseton Hills region where a little topographical lift may be present. High temperatures on Sunday should again rise into the low 30s across the northeast CWA to near 40 across the southwest CWA. Conditions will then remain dry, but cooler, until later in the week.
Highs tomorrow will be warmer with the downslope flow and warmer 850-hPa temperatures. Even warmer 850-hPa temperatures are expected Monday as downslope northwesterly flow continues. With a little bit of wind and associated mixing, think mid 60s could be realized with even some upper 60s for the lower elevations.
1016 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 A broad area of high pressure aloft will move towards the region.
1228 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 Low pressure over eastern Canada will continue to produce cold northwest flow across the Great Lakes through Sunday night resulting in snow showers across our area, heaviest over southwest Michigan and northwest and north central Indiana where several inches of accumulation are possible by Monday morning. Low pressure will move across the area Monday providing fair weather but quickly be followed by a low pressure system moving southeast across the Great Lakes.
Issued an Advisory for Dense Freezing Fog for the Lower Snake Plain until 11 am MST Sunday. EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OR FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
An upper level trough crossing the eastern states will push a cold front through the area this evening.
333 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 Thermal trough as depicted by 1000-500mb thickness analysis shows axis moving through the forecast area tonight then broadening during the day. A consensus of models may work as sunny skies should offset some of the cold pool aspects, particularly since much of the thickness column cooling is mostly aloft with the 500 mb trough amplification, and less so closer to the surface where continental high is already in place.
Skies will then gradually clear this evening as a high pressure ridge approaches from the west.
The region was under meridional flow today with a broad mid-level trough stretched across the eastern U. with a large ridge over the western U. While the low clouds may linger across eastern KS through the day, expect some clearing skies across central KS Sunday afternoon. The mid and upper level flow will be from the northwest but at the surface a trough of lower pressure will move east across KS during the afternoon hours. The rangeland fire danger may be in the high to very high category during the afternoon hours, as deeper mixing causes RH to drop down to around the 30 percent range and westerly surface winds increase to 15 to 20 MPH with higher gusts. Monday night, an upper level trough will dig southeast across the the upper midwest into the Great Lakes States.
Quiet weather develops today with high pressure building in over the region. Will expect lows generally 38-42 except warmer right along the coast. however high pressure will shift eastward allowing for a slow shift of winds back to the south and southeast by late in the day. Slightly warmer temperatures are also anticipated.
Gusty southwest flow today will help keep boundary layer temps too warm for snow accumulations most areas today, with the exception of the higher elevations, and expect rain showers in many valley areas at times. Temps will cool off overnight allowing more in the way of snow showers in valley locations, but still looks like bulk of snow accumulations will be the higher elevations.
Britt Several disturbances within a NW flow pattern aloft will move across the area tonight and tomorrow, bringing periods of clouds and flurries to parts of MO/IL as well as contributing to the development of a trough over the East Coast. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer than average tonight and highs will be near average tomorrow across most of the area. Quick warmup will be in store for Monday as weak ridge axis quickly moves off to the east of the CWA. High temperatures are expected to range from the low 40s across far eastern sections of the CWFA to low 50s across portions of central Missouri.
322 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 Upper trough axis currently over the high plains will continue to move southeast into the great lakes region today. A cold front will enter northeast OK Monday night.
Today will be another day with locally breezy conditions, abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures. Dry conditions will continue through the coming week with mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. Plenty of cool air in the low levels with temperatures at 2 am running about where they were at this time yesterday. There will be a NE to E breeze many areas through the day which will make it feel a bit cooler however. With the upper level ridge continuing to exert its influence over the next few days this warm air will continue to work its way down with milder overnight lows and afternoon temperatures running 3-8 degrees warmer than normal for the end of January. Dry and warmer conditions this week.
A pressure gradient developing between a departing cold front and high pressure over Mexico will result in breezy conditions during the afternoon Sunday, but will subside after sunset. A few of the colder locations, such as Oakdale and Esler Field that are sheltered and rural with lower wind speeds will see the lower temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the NW Sunday afternoon as the area finds itself between a departing front to the east and high pressure over Mexico. With clouds out of the picture for the most part, temperatures will likely be a little cooler than last night. Area is entering a broad trough axis across the eastern U.
The rest of the week is marked by upper low pressure over the Hudson Bay with upper ridge over the western United States. Overall the ECMWF and GEM Global were perhaps just a category cooler with regards to temperatures for the latter half of the week, but thats it.
302 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will move across the local area today. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the region late tonight into Monday.
A cold front will approach the northern border Sunday night, with west winds increasing ahead of the front, especially vicinity KCOD-KDUB where some stronger winds 40-50kts may surface, along with some terrain obscurations due to blowing snow.
330 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front approaches today and passes through tonight.
Broad upper trof remains in place over the Great Lakes and northeast. Various surface trofs and upper waves will pass through in the flow enhancing the on going lake effect. Today, secondary cold front will pass by midday and help carry the Lake Erie band eastward across the NY forecast area from mid morning through early afternoon. Still, deep upper trof with enhance the instability so some scattered snow showers will be in the area through the end of the period. Monday morning the low-lvl mean flow will be oriented around 290 degrees, and the lake effect snow band will likely be oriented along Onondaga, Madison and Oneida Counties.
943 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 The afternoon water vapor loop revealed a high amplitude upper ridge from CA into western Canada.
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Sharp ridge over the western CONUS and deep trough over the eastern CONUS with northern and central plains in north northwesterly flow. As for high temperatures on Sunday, have raised them once again warmer than models are forecasting. Have bumped temperatures into the 50s across our southwest and across north central Nebraska where there is still an abundant snow cover have only bumped temperatures a few degrees to push them in to the low to mid 40s. Through the first part of the week ridge to the west flattens out with upper pattern through the northern plains becoming more fast northwesterly.
Western CONUS ridge continues to shift east into the high plains. Warmer and dry for the area on Sunday, though it will still be breezy across the plains. Highs on Monday will remain mild, but the area may see early highs with steady to falling temperatures through the day as a cold front drops into the Northern Plains. Along with cooler air, this front will bring gusty northwest winds to the western SD plains.
Surface wise, a frontal boundary is meandering on the Florida Straits with a large region of high pressure nosing across the Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida peninsula. A fairly benign weather pattern will be the result of high pressure to our north which will limit moisture along with a gradual and slow warming trend. A brief spell of fresh to strong north winds with the higher winds expected on the Florida Straits will prompt a Small Craft Advisory to be hoisted for at least this morning, with winds slowly abating late this afternoon into tonight.
This wave looks to be mainly light snow as temperature profiles will be cold enough throughout the column despite surface temperatures near or just above freezing. Exception will be in the northern Plateau counties where higher elevations combined with cooler temperatures will keep precip all snow. Some travel impacts are possible in the advisory area, especially where snow falls heavy enough to cover roadways, as well as Sunday evening/night when temperatures fall well below freezing. Few if any travel impacts are expected elsewhere due to warmer temperatures and warm ground. trough.
308 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 The upper level pattern consists of a longwave trough across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper ridge across the west. Trapped beneath the upper ridge is a cut-off low over Baja California, but it looks like this feature will pass uneventfully across Mexico over the next several days before dampening out over the Gulf. The upper ridge is progged to expand east into the Plains over the next several days. Both the GFS and Canadian stall the front north of the Red River due to strong lee-Rockies troughing in response to a developing upper trough along the West Coast.
345 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge continuing to dive south into Mexico, where models close it off and separate it from the flow over Baja by 00Z Monday.
Low-level flow looks to remain generally WSW through its eastward shear off, so the low levels will not be particularly conducive to a lot of southward spread of precipitation, and with a less than moist boundary layer, microphysics will likely be working against accumulation. The upper trough will depart to the east on Monday, returning a brief period of dry conditions before yet another wave approaches in w-nw flow Monday night.
646 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Saturday.
Several vorticity maxima pivoting around a 524 dam upper low W of Vancouver are helping to increase jet dynamics and upper divergence over the N 1/2 of our area.