Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Slow moving mid level trough axis over Lake MI/northern IL will meander east through the Lower Lakes Today into tonight, while in the low levels a remnant boundary remains in place over northern/central IN/OH.
For tonight and Sunday, models show the low level jet increasing and veering to the southwest late tonight and into Sunday morning with warm air and moisture advecting back into northeast KS. With the outflow boundary laid down by this afternoons MCS, the expectation is for elevated storms to redevelop by the late evening within the warm air advection pattern as the low level jet veers to the southwest. The high resolution models have done a poor job with the convection today and the GFS/ECMWF/NAM haven't faired much better. Lows tonight may be a little tricky in that elevated storms could cause lows to be cooler by a southerly wind and increasing clouds may act to hold temps up. Increasing warm air advection and clearing skies during the afternoon should help Sunday's highs warm into the lower and middle 90s.
trough. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 92 73 93 / 30 40 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 90 71 90 / 30 40 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 90 70 91 / 30 40 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 66 86 / 40 40 30 30.
Scattered thunderstorms are developing this afternoon over the higher terrain of northern AZ. Showers and storms should spread into the lower elevations through the afternoon and evening hours with a few severe storms remaining possible. This will favor storms moving into the lower elevations south of the Mogollon Rim late in the day. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue across northern Arizona thru the 24hr TAF period, especially over the higher terrain and more numerous after 18Z Sunday.
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure will build across the region through tonight, then move east on Sunday.
A gradual cooling trend is forecast for inland areas over the next few days as an upper level trough develops north of the region. Temperatures early this afternoon are running generally a few degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. This is in part to a better defined marine layer that is between 1000 and 1200 feet in depth as well as weakening high pressure aloft. Expecting the marine layer to deepen slightly through the remainder of the weekend as a long-wave trough pushes inland to our north.
A weak cold front will develop over the region as an upper level low moves thru central British Columbia and Alberta.
However, the upper flow pattern looks to change a bit as flat ridging encompasses the southern half of the CONUS. As is common this time of year, northwest sections of the CWA will have the best chances for convection and eastern areas the lowest chances. Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 90s after our brief reprieve of highs "only" in the low to mid 90s.
A TUTT trough over the Lower Rio Grande Valley drifts northwest and becomes centered over Southern Texas later today and lingers through Sunday as a mid/upper level shear axis shifts northwest across northern and southwestern Texas. The shear axis lays between Subtropical Ridges centered over the Four Corners region and over northern Gulf of Mexico coast.
Latest guidance and NCAR ensemble guidance continues to support convection developing along the sea breeze this afternoon with the highest POP over the Atchafalaya basin. a weak high pressure ridge will continue over the northern Gulf. the forecast area is in between and upper trough over the Southern Plains and an anticyclone over the Eastern Gulf.
An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across North and Central Texas Sunday through the end of the work week.
The Aberdeen forecast area will be stuck between 2 systems through Sunday night, high pressure from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and organizing low pressure from southern Alberta through MT, eastern WY, and far western SD. Sunday will also be when the 500MB ridge moves in, in response to the low currently over northern British Columbia shifting across Alberta.
Anticipate the general theme of scattered convective elements in the high theta environ to continue, however, as we head thru the daytime hours, providing additional support to high CAPE airmass, as weak perturbations embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft further agitate/enhance updraft potential Today. Ridging west, and troffing east, in the upper flow will drive a nwly flow aloft by Sunday, with additional perturbation energy diving southeastward and overtop the PAH FA.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge is nearby and may eventually win out.
648 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. A southwest flow will prevail aloft, between strong ridging over the western Atlantic and a broad upper trough over the western Great Lakes region and Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a weak trough of low pressure will remain in place at the surface. While most of the convection should dissipate after midnight, will hold on to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Midlands, supported by some of the high resolution mesoscale models.
MLCIN eroding, especially over the higher terrain. With upper ridge building over the CWA per water vapour matinee, convective potential somewhat lower than yesterday but severe threat is similar with storms that develop given 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk shear.
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes down into northern MO places the area in clear skies and light winds overnight. Outside of the heat island around the metro area, the low temperatures are expected to drop down enough to create areas of fog and lower visibilities. Saturday night into Sunday morning a stationary boundary over northern Arkansas and Oklahoma returns to the area as a warm frontal boundary.
Due to the placement of the trough, most of the convection is confined along and north of I-30 but some additional showers and storms have developed farther south across east Texas and north Louisiana. The upper ridge along the Gulf coast will become more influential on Sunday with mostly diurnal convection during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly in south Arkansas and north Louisiana. The strengthening upper ridge across the region will spell hotter and drier conditions for the upcoming week.
259 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure will gradually shift east tonight through Sunday as a weak area of low pressure moves into southern New England.
Easterly winds in the low levels will nudge an area of high 925- 850mb relative humidity that is currently over southern Michigan westerly across southern Lake Michigan and into Southeast Wisconsin early Sunday morning. Low level mixing will help to scour out the low clouds by late morning, but wherever this weak moisture boundary ends up by that time, it will serve as a weak focal point for thunderstorm potential. CAPE/shear values are on the low side, so no severe is expected.
A short wave trof moving into central IL this afternoon will exit east of IL this evening allowing convection to diminish as well. A surface frontal boundary over southeast parts of IN/IL/MO will track southeast of the Ohio river on Sunday as weak 1020 mb high pressure over the upper Great Lakes region noses southward toward IL tonight into Sunday. Lows overnight mostly in the mid 60s with highs Sunday in the low to mid 80s. An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify over the central U.
With the slight increase in 850mb temperatures, highs on Sunday should be a bit warmer than today, perhaps a degree or two.
For tonight into Sunday, eastern half of the split mid-level southern CONUS ridge tries to bulge back toward the west and into the area. Sunday should be precip-free with min temps perhaps a degree cooler vs.
Upper level forcing will be weak and deep layer shear remains on the low side over our area.
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Low pressure will move slowly east across the forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week.
Deep layer high pressure is over the northern Gulf coast today and will remain in place through the evening. This ridging has allowed temperatures to warm up quite a bit already today, with 1PM temperatures already in the low to mid 90s everywhere except the FL Panhandle.
Otherwise, can't rule out isolated shower or thunderstorm development elsewhere as well late this afternoon and early evening, but expect much less coverage than Frida night as heights progged to slowly build overhead through Sunday and mid level flow less conducive for advection of showers/storms off the higher terrain to the northwest. Weakness in ridge across the central and southern Plains provides a glimmer of hope.
Otherwise, the extension of the upper ridge across the area will result in another warm day for West Central Texas, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 90s. Winds wind remain light southerly the next 24 hours, with lows tonight in the lower and middle 70s.
Otherwise as 500 mb ridging gradually builds over the region expect vfr conditions to prevail for most of the upcoming taf period for all three RGV airports. /issued 424 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): The broad weakness in the 500 mb ridging in place over the southern United States will shift gradually west through this weekend. Since the 500 mb ridging will be rebuilding over the region expect temps to stay close to persistence which is also supported by the numerical model trends. The ECMWF has a slight warmer bias versus the NAM and GFS temps. Since the ECMWF temps are a little closer to persistence values from the last several days will go on the warmer side of guidance especially for high temps for Saturday and Sunday.
1115 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Current surface map shows high pressure ridge across the upper midwest, with weak trof across Montana into Wyoming. Upper ridge shifts east Sunday as trof moves across western Canada. Surface trof slides into northeast Wyoming/far western South Dakota Sunday afternoon/evening and will be the focus for thunderstorm development. High temperatures will be in the 80s to around 90s today, with some 70s in the higher elevation of the Black Hills. Warmer on Sunday, with most locations on the plains into mid 90s.
The highest concentration of storm activity can be expected from the I-4 corridor south. High pressure continues to ridge over the central part of the Florida peninsula which will produce variable winds in the 5-8 knot range.
The lack of any significant ridging over the area has once again kept our temps fairly moderate today. We are transitioning however into a pattern where upper ridging will once again get established. With the ridging starting to take hold on Sunday.
320 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 As high pressure slowly flattens out due to a passing trough this evening, moisture will transport into the Four Corners from the west and southwest. That's a huge discrepency and seems to be an issue with handling the passing trough. Low amplitude high pressure will remain over the southcentral US through the week.
However, with the mid level trough axis still moving through, will just taper back to a 20 pop through the overnight hours.
Upper level ridge remains over the Desert SW and off the coast of the Carolinas with a weakness over Texas and the N Gulf Coast. Upper level trough was moving through the Ohio River valley with the trough axis stretching back to the SW into Texas. This means there really is not a lot of subsidence in the atmosphere from the ridging yet and diurnal heating with sea breeze forcing will be enough to initiate convection. Soundings still support convective temps in the low/mid 90s but coverage may be limited due to the decrease in moisture.
250 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. A broad upper trough over the MS River Valley will slowly shift east into the Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. however with the short waves continuing to move into the area ahead of the upper level trough expect a few thunderstorms to persist into tonight.
308 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level high is centered over the desert southwest while a trough is traversing the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
341 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Partly cloudy skies have emerged over the Lower Keys this afternoon as a cloud line has formed generating some shower activity from about Cudjoe Key to Key West.
Partial clearing tonight will linger into tomorrow though a lingering mid-level trough and weak disturbance passing through the region looks to be enough to spark off additional isolated showers/storms over southwestern MN during the day tomorrow. Temperatures will run fairly similar tomorrow as today, possibly 1-3 degrees warmer tomorrow with high pressure exiting and a stronger backside southerly flow bringing in slightly warmer and slightly more moist air from the Deep South.
8 - 2 inch range and some glancing influence from a broad upper trough over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.
Weak upper low embedded in a broad trough still over the area producing plenty of low stratus along with light to calm winds. Today: Similar weather pattern as the past couple of days with weak upper level low/trough over the area, combined with a short wave arriving from the west. Tonight: Models finally shift the upper trough/short wave quickly into the OH Valley as heights begin to rise. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Southern counties look most favored for organized storms, along the 850mb moisture convergence axis with support from short wave energy along the periphery of the upper ridge.
Cooler mid level temperatures along with some higher 850mb to 700mb moisture.
Upper level ridge likely to trap moisture within a cooling boundary layer with potential for additional clouds overnight especially over the east and northeast. Across the far west increasing clouds and showers and thunderstorms in response to a developing warm front and increasing thetae advection will near the western edge of the forecast area by 12z.
0 inch range), a well worked-over boundary layer from last night's very widespread convective activity, and warming/drying through the 500-700mb layer is expected to make it much harder to get thunderstorms going this afternoon/evening across the lower deserts. The latest HRRR and NAM 4km high-res models continue to keep convective activity confined to the higher terrain east of Phoenix, with perhaps a weak outflow moving into the Greater Phoenix area later this evening.
On Sunday the area will still be affected by an upper trof and once again more sct shra/tsra will be possible.
As the LLJ weakens late Sunday morning the trigger for convection will become the surface trof which slides into southeast Montana in response to increasing divergence aloft ahead of approaching upper trof to the west. Elsewhere there will be a wind shift to the west of the surface trof Sunday afternoon to the northwest then north, undercutting stronger westerly winds trying to mix from aloft.
306 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Low pressure will move slowly east across the forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week.
isolated convection is ongoing mainly east of I 65 with broad upper level troughing pattern.
235 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A ridge of high pressure continues to bring hot temperatures through the weekend. Another very hot day across Central California as triple digits will be observed again over the lower elevations of the district.
High temperatures will be warmer and made slight adjustments up from the previous forecast.
Meanwhile, upper level ridge along the Gulf coast continues to build farther west.
The upper level ridge axis continues to extend over the Florida Peninsula in a northeast- southwest orientation from Daytona Beach to Tampa Bay. On the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic ridging west southwest will keep a light east through southeast wind flow along the east coast and interior counties. Another high pressure pressure center is located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will shift slightly northward by Sunday evening which will bring a more southwest wind north of Tampa Bay and a south southeast wind south of Tampa Bay.
Some of our hi-res guidance is suggesting some IFR visibilities may develop tomorrow morning in north FL and southeast AL around sunrise, but will wait to see where we get the most rainfall this afternoon before determining if any of our TAF sites will get this low.
551 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level high is centered over the desert southwest while a trough is traversing the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
Today, the upper ridge will expand eastward a bit, keeping any southeastward moving disturbances farther at bay to the north and east of the area. With the eastward expansion of the upper ridge, monsoonal moisture will lean in over the mountains, increasing the activity in those areas compared to previous days. The downslope component may tend to dry out the lower levels a bit as afternoon mixing gets underway, thus lowering CAPES. Also with the expanding ridge will come less environmental wind shear today.
331 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Persistent low amplitude longwave trough remains over the western Great Lakes and looks to stay that way until it releases eastward Sunday and Sunday night. This region had been advertised by most models to be favored for the next round of thunderstorms this evening as the next wave ejects out of the base of the trough, but now looks to be stable aloft and looks like the jet streak is aiming a bit further south as well.
WV imagery shows the col over Texas splitting the upper ridge over the southern CONUS remains this afternoon, but appears weaker than 24 hours ago.
A broad area of low pressure remains in place across the area. High pressure will begin to nudge into the area late tonight into Sunday, which will lower thunderstorm chances a bit.
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. A broad upper trough over the MS River Valley will slowly shift east into the Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. however with the short waves continuing to move into the area ahead of the upper level trough expect a few thunderstorms to persist into tonight.
nudged slightly further north by the strengthening ridge aloft.
Otrws through this aftn xpc just sct shra and perhaps a few isold tsra as temps struggle to warm out of the low-mid 70s currently. Stg ridging aloft xpcd to build newd into the srn Lakes this pd as east Canada troughing breaks down at least temporarily bfr redvlpg twd nxt weekend. Lg scale pattn signals multiple conv complexes likely to arise within nrn periphery of sharp ll theta-e ridge that takes shape acrs the cntrl/srn plains.
As of 3PM, temperatures throughout the Mid-South are slightly below normal but humidity values in the low to mid 70s still make it seem quite uncomfortable outside.
H5 ridging is prog to gradually strengthen Sunday.
145 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016 Low pressure will drift east through the Ohio Valley today and Sunday with a weak front trailing east to the Mid Atlantic coast and west into the Central Plains.
339 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016 Low pressure will drift east to the Upper Ohio Valley by and into Pennsylvania Sunday evening. A cold front with this feature will move to the Central Appalachians by Sunday night.
For tomorrow, the higher than normal rain chances remain in the forecast. Problem is where will the highest rain chances be.
Better storm chances are expected to arrive tonight with both the GFS and NAM hinting at some weak upper energy moving out of southern WY and into the high Plains. A few storms may linger Sun morning over eastern KS before some weak upper ridging moves in. It is possible that additional storms will develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours; however, confidence was not high enough to include mentions at this time as the more pronounced lift and moisture transport is aimed northeast of the area and upslope convection aided by lift along the warm front northwest of the area very well may weaken before impacting KRSL/KGBD this evening.
1039 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2016 The passage of a dry cold front today will produce dry and breezy conditions. Sunday will be cooler with afternoon highs in the 80s.
Dew points in the 70s ran from the lower Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.
Some stations are showing temperatures are running slightly warmer but most are indicating temperatures are running slightly cooler. The winds through the delta will be stronger tonight and will help to bring cooler air into the valley overnight. A trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will help to push the high pressure area south slightly to bring some synoptic cooling to the region through Sunday.
and Sunday Surface to 850 mb high pressure will settle over the area for the weekend for an overall dry quiet weather regime. This convection is associated with the slowly moving upper trough gradually lifting northeastward today into tonight.
/issued 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/ Upper ridge axis located over the western U. Later in the week a West Coast trough will displace the ridge somewhat to the east but not dislodge it.
Meanwhile, the airmass on the plains of northeast Colorado remain capped, but temperatures reaching the lower 90s in a couple spots could be just enough to pop one or two storms. Synopsis: Light quasi-zonal flow aloft Sunday night atop an upper ridge stretched across the southern half of the U.
Increased moisture and cooler temps aloft associated with passing wave through South Florida should generate higher coverage of showers and storms through Treasure Coast and interior areas south of Orlando Sunday.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE TO SPIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE LOCAL AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WELL ESTABLISHED AND DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED FROM MEXICO. AN INDICATION OF THE DEPTH OF THE DRIER AIR IS REFLECTED IN THE LOW PWATS. MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
143 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL END AROUND 21-00Z AT KCHA AND KTYS AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 47 73 50 / 40 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 46 69 49 / 80 50 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 46 70 49 / 80 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 43 63 46 / 70 70 40 20.
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KCTB AS OF 18Z/ WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
It may be a couple of degrees overdone as it is warmer than all the other guidance/blends, however with it being early May now the warming can last later in the day.