Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
328 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The large scale pattern continues to consist of a broad positive tilt trough over western Canada and ridging over most of the CONUS. Very slight warming aloft tomorrow will lead to high temps perhaps 1-2 F warmer than today, but overall tomorrow will be very similar to today with highs generally in the mid 80s, cooler by Lake Michigan and warmer over the Keweenaw and in the downslope areas of Marquette County. The highlight of this work week will be the continued warmth period Upper Michigan will be in, with highs each day reaching well into the 80s everywhere, with some 90s appearing for the latter half of the week.
There is a weak upper low over Wisconsin that is directing southwesterly flow over the local area. Yet this could be capped by weak upper ridging, so any storms that do develop will not be severe.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the upper Keys with isolated showers down towards the lower Keys by early afternoon timeframe.
A building ridge aloft should favor an decreasing trend in rain chances by late week, joined by a warming trend. Severe convective gusts are unlikely but gusts over 30 KT are possible due to fairly brisk winds in the lowest 3 KFT expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially western areas.
with warmer, more humid air returning as we near the weekend. The NAM/EC/GFS all suggest a weak upper level low will wobble from the plains to northern IL, eventually getting a nudge east Fri from an upper level trough. Warm/moist airmass progged to push northward to feed the trough/front combo.
(This evening through Tuesday) Weak upper trough will continue to move south across the area this afternoon and tonight. There will be a chance to see scattered convection mainly along and ahead of this trough axis. This trough will continue to move slowly south during the day Tuesday with best rain chances across the south/southeast.
1227 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The dryline has backed up into the Panhandle early this morning, the moisture is shallow and the RAP model suggests the low level jet is veering off leaving the area vulnerable to fog.
Given the low predictability associated with these features, nothing more than limited PoPs seems appropriate for this update, though this will be something to monitor during the overnight period.
246 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The large scale pattern continues to consist of a broad positive tilt trough over western Canada and ridging over most of the CONUS. Very slight warming aloft tomorrow will lead to high temps perhaps 1-2 F warmer than today, but overall tomorrow will be very similar to today with highs generally in the mid 80s, cooler by Lake Michigan and warmer over the Keweenaw and in the downslope areas of Marquette County.
/EC/ The period begins with a typical August pattern, dominated by a building subtropical ridge through the weekend and likely beyond. A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible through the week, with seasonal maximum temperatures into the lower 90s F and dewpoints in the lower 70s F.
today as deep layer ridging builds toward FL from the Atlantic. This ridging continues southwestward tonight then over the Gulf of Mexico Tue. A moist airmass continues Tue and with the high pressure building a return to a more typical summer like pattern is expected. From Wed through next Mon: The deep layer ridging across FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico slowly lifts north. Temperatures run a degree or 2 above normal for the lows while the highs are 2 to 4 degrees above. Then as high pressure builds in winds begin to diminish and back to southeast to east.
343 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeast across the Commonwealth late today and tonight.
This was in response to a weak upper level trof axis continuing to hold over the region and an increased area of vorticity slowly pushing eastward near the Oklahoma Kansas border.
253 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Mostly sunny skies with a smattering of fair weather cumulus clouds and light southeast winds were common at midday, as high pressure remained over the area. High pressure will continue to influence the weather over the area, with generally clear skies and light winds. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, while highs on Tuesday climb a little higher than today, topping out in the lower and middle 80s.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs mainly in the 80s.
/Issued 1027 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ Unstable and weakly capped airmass will again be over the area today with a weak trough axis overhead. A few showers have developed this morning across far southeast OK and some additional development is likely farther north closer to the trough axis. /Issued 251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ A weak level upper trough axis will remain over the region for the next few days with widely scattered showers/thunderstorms possible.
General upper troughing to our west and ridging to our east has resulted in deep SSW flow over our region, keeping a high PWAT airmass (between 1. With some weak forcing ahead of the upper trough combined with the high PWATs and modest instability, expect to see scattered showers and storms to continue this afternoon. Given the high PWATs and low FFG in our east, some localized nuisance flooding may still be possible. Temperatures for tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s, with areas west of I-65 on the warmer side due to slightly less cloud cover.
Mid/upper trof stretching from the Great Lakes into Tx, PW's 1.
We will also continue the warming trend as a bubble of hot air centered over the central Rockies ridges out towards the northeast. As we have seen the past several nights, once the low level jet ramps up it does manage to produce some sparse areas of elevated convection. As has been the trend, once the low level jet weakens through the morning hours any remaining convection typically erodes. Once the low moves onshore tomorrow we will be able to sample it with our radiosondes and get a better idea of its characteristics.
The smoke layer now having advanced over eastern ND and much of northwest MN has taken the top edge off the high temperatures expected for the day.
130 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U.
259 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 High pressure over the region will slide offshore tonight into Tuesday night.
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeast across the Commonwealth late today and tonight.
Incoming cold front will trigger isolated thunderstorms in southern-most zones late today and especially this evening. According to HRRR smoke model the cold front will also sweep away most of the near-surface smoke, clearing out eastern Oregon before sunset, southwest Idaho during the night, and south-central Idaho Tuesday. Smoke aloft is forecast to clear out about 12 hours later as the upper trough comes in.
1209 PM PDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Today will dry and breezy following the passage of a cold front. Tuesday will be considerably cooler with a chance for showers and thunderstorms with a good shot of much needed rain across northeast Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle.
Westerly winds will also be gusty at times and will diminish in the lower elevations around sunset.
As Fred moves north, high pressure will begin to build across the Southeast with the Midsouth in the northern edge of the high. Weak Ridging aloft will also take place. As a result, expect slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow.
Further to the west, precipitation coverage is predicted to be much lower and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with highs in the mid 80s.
521 PM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Upper air analysis shows broad upper ridging across the western CONUS today. With that ridging still in place, expect another hot day Tuesday, with highs reaching over 100 for most of our plains counties. As we progress towards mid-week, ridge slides eastward and upper trough develops over the west coast.
659 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeastward across the Commonwealth overnight.
The going forecast handles this shift in location well, including showing the higher coverage after 12Z, and as such, no changes have been made to POPs during this time frame. This was in response to a weak upper level trof axis continuing to hold over the region and an increased area of vorticity slowly pushing eastward near the Oklahoma Kansas border.
715 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred will pass well to the west through mid week with high pressure remaining centered off the coast through late week.
814 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeastward across the Commonwealth overnight.
741 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The large scale pattern continues to consist of a broad positive tilt trough over western Canada and ridging over most of the CONUS. Very slight warming aloft tomorrow will lead to high temps perhaps 1-2 F warmer than today, but overall tomorrow will be very similar to today with highs generally in the mid 80s, cooler by Lake Michigan and warmer over the Keweenaw and in the downslope areas of Marquette County. The highlight of this work week will be the continued warmth period Upper Michigan will be in, with highs each day reaching well into the 80s everywhere, with some 90s appearing for the latter half of the week.
In response, flow through the lower half of the atmosphere will strengthen resulting in stronger 0-3 km shear through the afternoon hours. /Issued 319 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ North and Central Texas will remain in a fairly active summertime pattern as an amplifying trough across the western CONUS influences the weather across our region.
Mostly sunny skies with a smattering of fair weather cumulus clouds and light southeast winds were common at midday, as high pressure remained over the area. High pressure will continue to influence the weather over the area, with generally clear skies and light winds. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, while highs on Tuesday climb a little higher than today, topping out in the lower and middle 80s.
627 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Weak upper trough will continue to move south across the area this afternoon and tonight. There will be a chance to see scattered convection mainly along and ahead of this trough axis. This trough will continue to move slowly south during the day Tuesday with best rain chances across the south/southeast.
1010 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred will pass well to the west through mid week with high pressure remaining centered off the coast through late week.
Seasonal temps and slightly higher humidity for Tue then warmer and more humid for Wed. Gehring (Issued 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: Quiet weather continues across the region as we remain on the western periphery of high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Tomorrow looks to be a near carbon copy of today, just a touch warmer and more humid. Highs will in the low 80s.
259 PM PDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue in the higher elevations through the evening.
1032 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Currently - A lower level ridge extending west southwestward across South Florida and the Keys is producing light east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. Increasingly dry lower level air has arrived with the ridge and this evenings sounding indicated the PWAT is down to 1. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate overnight across the Keys. A ridge across South Florida and the Keys will maintain light east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Upper air analysis shows broad upper ridging across the western CONUS today. With that ridging still in place, expect another hot day Tuesday, with highs reaching over 100 for most of our plains counties. As we progress towards mid-week, ridge slides eastward and upper trough develops over the west coast.
The latest water vapor imagery still depicts upper troughing extending from the Mid MS Valley SW into KS/Nrn and Wrn OK this evening, with the short term progs still in reasonable agreement with AC cigs and the potential for isolated convection possibly redeveloping overnight ahead of the trough, mainly over portions of SE OK/E TX/Wrn LA/adjacent sections of SW AR. This convection looks to persist during the evening through Tuesday night as the upper trough axis begins to shift E towards the region.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue in the higher elevations through the evening.
A light north to northwesterly midlevel flow remains in place for much of the area as a weak trough moves through the region.
Warmer and dry conditions expected to resume from mid-week onward as the deepening upper trough exits the region.
Today through Wednesday night Closed upper low over Kansas with a trough extending across the southeastern and southern Texas Panhandle between 18Z today and 00Z Wednesday may be a focus for some convection. The upper trough remains across the southeastern Texas Panhandle through Wednesday night.
A sfc warm front should continue tracking N across the region today. The low is progged to reach Central WV by Wednesday morning, and continue NNEwd through the day. Ensembles and individual operational models differences indicate some continued uncertainty in the exact track of the low, and the resulting heavy rain potential.
1123 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeastward across the Commonwealth overnight.
335 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 (Issued 335 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021) Today through Wednesday Night: High pressure continues to sit over the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a little warmer than previous days with highs in the lower 80s, and it will feel a little more humid with dewpoints creeping into the lower 60s. Wednesday will be a notch warmer and more humid than today. A weak upper low is expected to meander into the region Wednesday and could provide just enough forcing for a few showers or isolated thunderstorm focused along the lake breeze.
On Tuesday, the instability will be pulled farther north ahead of a developing trough to the west.
220 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a ridge in the Rockies with a ridge on the east coast and a broad and weak trough over the Mississippi River valley. The trough in the Pacific NW moves into the western U. and the ridge stays on the east coast this forecast period. The highlight of this work week will be the continued warmth period Upper Michigan will be in, with highs each day reaching well into the 80s everywhere, with some 90s appearing for the latter half of the week.
Overall, a slightly cooler than normal day is forecast with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. In its wake, a mild, but dry night is in store with overnight lows in the lower 70s. On Wednesday, a weak mid level trough approaches northwest Alabama during the day.
1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Weak upper trough will continue to move south across the area this afternoon and tonight. There will be a chance to see scattered convection mainly along and ahead of this trough axis. This trough will continue to move slowly south during the day Tuesday with best rain chances across the south/southeast.
Lows tonight remain on track to be in the lower 70s inland with middle 70's along to coast. Aloft, a trough traverses across the Ohio and TN River valley through the period, with ridging building into the southeast from the western Atlantic, and ridging following behind the traversing trough from the west. As the ridging first begins to build into the area from the western Atlantic through Wednesday. At the surface, as the remnant low of Fred continues shooting off to the northeast, ridging begins to slowly nose into the southeast as high pressure over the Atlantic gradually moves into the eastern Gulf through the period. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower 70s inland with middle 70's along to coast.
Expect a gradual trend of warmer and more humid conditions, with the heat index returning to the 90s by Wednesday. Early afternoon surface map showed a weak low pressure area over the southern tip of Illinois, with an associated boundary/front arcing just southeast of Lawrenceville. Overall pattern does not appreciably change over the next few days, with a broad upper trough/low hanging out over the Great Lakes.
Weak, elongated cyclonic upper level flow over the Great Lakes remains trapped upstream of a strengthening Eastern Seaboard ridge, but should be squeezed up and over the blocking ridge over the next 24-36 hours as additional ridging develops to its west. This displacement will allow a thermal ridge over the Northern High Plains to shift eastward and bring warmer and slightly muggier air into the region for today. Highs should reach into the low to mid-80s, warmest towards south-central MN and north- central IA as the H850-750 temperatures climb to +18-19C. Elevated smoke from western wildfires likewise shifts towards the region under the weak upper low and have nudged up sky cover in the northwestern half of the forecast area as a result--otherwise look for clear skies.
The best coverage will generally be west of the Highway 65 corridor, with the more isolated shower/storm coverage farther east where moisture will be lower. Low temperatures tonight will also be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday given southerly winds, ranging from the low/mid 60s over the eastern Ozarks to upper 60s over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Increasing heat and humidity is expected by midweek with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints pushing back into the low 70s.
The temperature at 925 mb climbs a few more degrees today into the low 20 deg C range. we should see max temps reaching into the low 80s for much of the week.
Slightly warmer conditions will be inplace for Wednesday with high temperatures generally in the 80s.
Here, afternoon highs could rise into the upper 90s with a few isolated locations hitting the low 100s.
1117 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeastward across the Commonwealth overnight.
423 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a ridge in the Rockies with a ridge on the east coast and a broad and weak trough over the Mississippi River valley. The trough in the Pacific NW moves into the western U. and the ridge stays on the east coast this forecast period.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper level trough combined with an outflow boundary moving into the Permian Basin are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area this morning that will continue into this afternoon. Tomorrow the upper trough migrates to the south shifting the higher PoPs and QPF to the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos.
A moist/unstable air-mass is expected into the day with scattered showers/thunderstorms likely developing as upper trough axis remains over the region. The going forecast handles this shift in location well, including showing the higher coverage after 12Z, and as such, no changes have been made to POPs during this time frame. This was in response to a weak upper level trof axis continuing to hold over the region and an increased area of vorticity slowly pushing eastward near the Oklahoma Kansas border. The weak trof axis is forecast to remain over the region Tuesday and then lift northeast Wednesday which will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to be possible through Wednesday.
1222 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred will pass well to the west through mid week with high pressure remaining centered off the coast through late week.
While we won't feel any direct impacts from this storm, large scale subsidence to the west of the cyclone may limit the convective potential today. Expect generally dry weather overnight with temperatures falling into the lower 70s, but we expect patchy fog in the favored areas, possibly becoming dense at times. To the west, a rather potent trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest and will eventually settle over the western CONUS. The flow will be a bit messier between these primary features, though the general consensus favors a cut-off upper- level cyclone over the Upper Great Lakes by midweek with an attendant trough axis extending SSW through the Ozarks.
Expect mainly isolated showers overnight as a sfc warm front lifts north, with the lack of upper support precluding any greater coverage of precip.
205 AM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Current surface map places trof/dry line across western South Dakota, with washed out outflow boundary across northwest South Dakota. Upper level trof is digging into the Pacific Northwest with ridge breaking down over the plains. pulling cold front into western South Dakota. Timing/placement of cold front will have big impact on highs Wednesday afternoon with >25F spread across the forecast area.
Add in the higher moisture content air in place, and seeing rather warm temperatures (upper 60s to mid 70s) continuing into this early morning hour. Thickness of the smoke has not been impactful across the Missouri River valley region of the CWA (perhaps only 1-2 degrees cooler than forecast high temperatures of the past couple of days). But, further east into northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota, the impacts have been more noticeable, with observed high temperatures being as much as 3 to 5 degrees cooler than forecast high temperatures. Upper low/trough continues to migrate across the intermountain west/northern Rockies.
Scattered SHRA/TS which may result in brief categorical reductions will be possible again this afternoon, with the highest rain chances generally west of I-55. /EC/ The period begins with a typical August pattern, dominated by a building subtropical ridge through the weekend and likely beyond. A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible through the week, with seasonal maximum temperatures into the lower 90s F and dewpoints in the lower 70s F.
Pretty obvious in thermal progs that deeper surface based mixed layer and diabatic heating will lead to warmer temperatures today, highs in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low 90s with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s across west central Kansas to upper 60s across central Kansas.
253 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Scattered showers and storms will possible across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today as an upper level trough persists across the area. While the bulk of the showers and storms will occur this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this morning with isentropic lift producing activity across southeast Oklahoma and the upper level trough possibly kicking off some convection across northeast Oklahoma. The chances of showers and thunderstorms remains for Wednesday even as the upper level trough weakens.
311 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 This morning the area was still under the influence of high pressure as mainly clear skies were reported. Temperatures were slightly warmer this AM with temps in the low 60s to upper 50s. This high pressure will slowly move east today, but will continue to drive the short term weather. As the high pressure shifts east, the flow will eventually become SW through time helping to advect in better llvl moisture. Temps tonight will be warmer than this morning as more moist air arrives.
142 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Warmer and more humid conditions will settle in for the remainder of the week with chances for afternoon and evening showers and possibly some thunderstorms. There is a weak upper low over Wisconsin that is directing southwesterly flow over the local area. Yet this could be capped by weak upper ridging, so any storms that do develop will not be severe.