Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
355 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Slight ridging aloft will be over Colorado today as another dry day is expected. High temperatures will be around 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. We considered issuing a Red Flag Warning for Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips Counties but decided against it due to recent moisture and being at the low end of thresholds. A weak cold front will push through the plains during the late overnight hours but dry conditions will continue with very little moisture in place.
The rain is ahead of an upper level low which is centered over far west Texas. As this low continues to move slowly east into north central Texas, rain will continue to move north into the Mid-South today. Temperatures will remain on the mild side with highs in the low to mid 60s. The upper low will continue to move east tonight and begins to weaken with more rain expected to move across the region. By Thursday, the upper low will be weaker and moving east of the region with rain ending from west to east in the morning. High pressure will start to build into the region Thursday afternoon bringing the beginning of a period of dry weather. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with highs in the lower 60s.
352 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Early this morning the closed upper level low pressure system was making its way into far West Texas with showers and thunderstorms ongoing along a frontal boundary across Central Texas. the upper low is forecast to become more of an open wave and begin weakening as it lifts across Eastern Texas and into Eastern Arkansas by early Thursday morning.
234 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 09z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central WY. Thermal profiles suggest minor snow accumulations possible over the highest Black Hills. Bufkit momentum transfer/ensemble probabilities suggest marginal wind advisory criteria over the far northwest this afternoon and then this evening with the cold front passage.
Current radar imagery shows numerous showers stretching across the Permian Basin into southeast New Mexico ahead of an upper low which is now churning over far West TX (comma head can clearly be seen on IR/WV loop). Cooling aloft will occur on the back side of the low w/70h temperatures around -4 to -5 C which means it would be cold enough for snow to occur at the highest elevations of the mountains until precipitation comes to an end. Ridging will build in behind the departing low tomorrow and sfc winds will switch to a westerly direction.
Thursday: The higher clouds will decrease late tonight with weak high pressure. Another stronger system will move into the Great Lakes with a trailing sfc front/trough moving through our area early Thursday.
414 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A weak clipper approaching from the midwest will track across Pennsylvania late today, then high pressure will build into the state Thursday.
High pressure will build in on Thursday give the area a dry and mild day.
Temperatures will be cooler across southern Oklahoma and north Texas (where precipitation is expected) with highs in the 50s to near 60 deg F. Highs farther north are forecast to only be a few degrees cooler than yesterday (low to mid 60s deg F).
High pressure provides dry weather on Thursday. A brief surge of modestly warmer air will spread across the region ahead of the wave which should be enough to push temperatures to slightly above the climatological average. Building high pressure and increasingly zonal flow will provide mostly dry weather Thursday.
/issued 417 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ (Today and Tonight) The GOES 16 channel 8 WV imagery is showing a well defined low pressure system near ELP. Ahead of the low, convection was developing in the warm conveyor belt across south central Texas, extending north into the Northwest Hill Country. the combination of mid to upper level forcing(as the upper low moves east) and abundant moisture(PW values of 1 to 1.
Dry conditions then move in by sunrise as short wave ridging and drier air settles in for the rest of the day. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop after sunset into the 20s, but will then increase as a warm front moves in after midnight. This will probably be a narrow band of intense precip, likely snow, right along the surface cold front, similar to yesterday morning. The GFS is showing warmer surface temps than the NAM, but the NAM might have a better handle on dynamic cooling. Temps should be in the lower 40s Thursday, although far southeast WI may hit upper 40s for a short time.
238 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 09z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central WY. Thermal profiles suggest minor snow accumulations possible over the highest Black Hills. Bufkit momentum transfer/ensemble probabilities suggest marginal wind advisory criteria over the far northwest this afternoon and then this evening with the cold front passage.
The end result is expected to be very similar to yesterday with most locations seeing highs in the low 60s. High pressure will quickly build in by early evening bringing light and variable winds and strong radiational cooling on Thu night.
Dry and warming weather expected through the end of the week as high pressure takes control of the region. Dry mild weather with light winds can be expected across the entire region today and Thursday under a ridge of high pressure.
332 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Height rises continue today indicating high pressure continues to build in. Midlevel temperatures increase by about 5 degrees which will be reflected at the surface with high temperatures a bit warmer today than yesterday. The ridge axis will be just about overhead on Thursday bringing another sunny and warm day to eastern Utah and western Colorado.
/issued 332 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ A well developed upper low centered about the Sun Country this morning is expected to drop into the Big Bend before ejecting into the Arklatex by Thursday morning. This has resulted in a large shield of precipitation across our CWFA limited in northern extend by a cold front which as of 3 AM is roughly bisecting the area on an east-west axis. As the low shifts east of our longitude, we will see a weakening trend and a slow decrease in activity from NW to SE.
653 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A weak clipper approaching from the midwest will track across Pennsylvania late today, then high pressure will build into the state Thursday.
/Issued 352 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ Early this morning the closed upper level low pressure system was making its way into far West Texas with showers and thunderstorms ongoing along a frontal boundary across Central Texas. the upper low is forecast to become more of an open wave and begin weakening as it lifts across Eastern Texas and into Eastern Arkansas by early Thursday morning.
Mild temperatures prevail, trending warmer toward the end of the week. Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances return for the weekend. Winds will strengthen further later this morning and spread across much of North-central, Central, and parts of Southwest Montana through the afternoon associated with a passing cold front. Strong subsidence behind the departing upper level trough axis will stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Temperatures trend cooler behind the cold front this evening as winds gradually decouple and settle down.
558 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A brief break from the rain will be followed by widespread rain late today through Thursday, as two waves of low pressure move east along a stalled frontal boundary to our south.
An upper level low continues to move into the southern plains this morning with a plume of moisture being advected into much of the southeast and Tennessee valley. The old cold front remains stalled to the south but is expected to drift back north through the period with weak wave activity along it. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 45 55 39 53 / 40 60 60 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 43 55 38 48 / 10 40 50 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 42 57 38 49 / 10 40 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 38 55 36 44 / 10 30 50 20 20.
Winds should begin to increase over the next couple of hours and the high resolution models are in good agreement that fog will move out of the area in the 14z to 15z time frame. Expect highs to range from around 40 across the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley to the low to mid 50s west and south central. A cold front will sweep across the state this evening and tonight, bringing strong winds late once again across the region in its wake. Highs will be cooler on Thursday behind the front, mainly in the low 30s to low 40s. Regarding precipitation potential this afternoon, widely scattered convective showers will develop in the warm air advection regime as well as along the approaching cold front.
As of yet, do not see much indication that inland VSBYS are being impacted to the same degree, with the lowest readings of around 1SM being reported in the area of KBPT. This elevated activity is occurring along and to the north of a quasi-stationary front draped W-E across east TX and Central LA well ahead of an upper low spinning over W TX. Examining forecast soundings across the area through the day reveals decent elevated instability and adequate shear supportive of severe convection, though the low level thermodynamic profile is generally poor. Some light wrap-around type rains may still be ongoing early THU morning across E Central LA, but otherwise cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of the departing upper trof.
417 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 (Today and Tonight) The GOES 16 channel 8 WV imagery is showing a well defined low pressure system near ELP. Ahead of the low, convection was developing in the warm conveyor belt across south central Texas, extending north into the Northwest Hill Country. the combination of mid to upper level forcing(as the upper low moves east) and abundant moisture(PW values of 1 to 1.
High pressure will dominate Great Basin weather this week and temperatures will rise into the 60s later in the week as dry conditions continue. The weekend will be a little stormy as a low pressure system moves down the California coast.
Ridging was analyzed across the eastern Pacific and western US. Short term guidance indicates rain will makes its way into the area late tonight and into Thursday with mainly southeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia seeing the highest PoPs. Increased cloud cover and possible rain showers on Thursday will lead to daytime highs a couple of degrees cooler than what we are seeing today, but will still be near normal.
The forecast area now resides behind a front that's currently oriented on a west southwest to east northeast trajectory just south of the Highway 84 corridor this morning. If the boundary can lift far enough north to along the Highway 84 corridor, convection could become surface-based. The cold front will be well south of the ArkLaMiss by this time however moisture and southerly flow will still be present.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): The cold front has cleared through the area and is moving offshore this afternoon. The 500 mb closed low that pushed this front through the region will lift out steadily pretty quickly to the ENE tonight into Thurs. After this system clears through the region, 500 mb ridging will steadily build over the RGV maintaining generally dry and stable conditions.
1033 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Height rises continue today indicating high pressure continues to build in. Midlevel temperatures increase by about 5 degrees which will be reflected at the surface with high temperatures a bit warmer today than yesterday. The ridge axis will be just about overhead on Thursday bringing another sunny and warm day to eastern Utah and western Colorado.
301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Drier weather returns overnight and continues Thursday as high pressure crosses.
Anther mild day is in store with high mainly in the lower to middle 60s. Upper level ridging builds across the center part of the Nation from Thursday night through the weekend.
238 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 (Tonight and Thursday) An upper level low is currently tracking across southern portions of West Central Texas, resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across much of the area. This low will quickly move east of the area this evening, with rain chances decreasing from west to east. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Thursday afternoon, with winds becoming north at 6 to 12 mph.
Dry and warming weather still expected through the end of the week as high pressure takes control of the region. Dry mild weather with light winds can be expected across the entire region today and Thursday under a ridge of high pressure.
257 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 A relatively dry and cool midcontinental airmass prevailed over the Midsouth this afternoon, under a confluence of northwest- oriented northern branch, and zonal subtropical branch downstream of an an upper low over TX. A broad rain shield extended from the upper low, eastward to GA. The northern edge of this rain shield had limited success building into the Midsouth today, given dry air in the lowest 7 to 10 kft. The upper low will open up and accelerate east, reaching AL / middle TN by midday Thursday.
Being north of the frontal boundary, on the cooler side, high temperatures today will only be in the low 60s. The front will slowly lift back to the north overnight into Thursday in response to an upper trough shifting from the Mississippi Valley into the Deep South region. Still, some locally heavy downpours may be possible, especially Thursday morning as the low pivots closest to our southern counties.
300 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure extending from MO into central IL will keep conditions dry overnight. The high will move east, allowing winds to shift to the south late tonight. Another cold front will approach the area Thursday, with the winds becoming gusty ahead of the front from the south.
250 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Light rain will continue to spread across SE OK through the evening hours as the upper low currently over west TX moves through the Arklatex region overnight. Skies will clear overnight with sunny and warmer temps tomorrow. Cold front moves through the region during Thursday afternoon / evening hours with an increase in post frontal wind speeds raising fire weather concerns especially across northeast OK.
254 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Dry conditions will settle in through Thursday morning before a strong cold front brings a chance of showers mainly during the afternoon.
Vigorous southern stream upper low has lifted up out of northern MX and into western TX. Closer to the coast and offshore where better instability, 0-1km storm relative helicity, and bulk shear magnitudes >60 kts resides will support a damaging wind and tornado threat at least through tonight as a wave of surface frontal low pressure tracks east northeast over coastal LA. The low tracks over the MS Sound and the AL/NW FL coastal waters by daybreak Thursday, then ejects quickly east of the area by noon then across the southeast US through the afternoon. As the low increases its distance from the area Thursday, coverage of rain begins to markedly decrease from west to east through the day. Drier and cooler northerly flow overspreads the area Thursday night.
There will be occasional gusts across parts of eastern NM this afternoon as and upper level low pressure system gradually exits the region and into central TX. Temperatures below 7500 feet rose above freezing and precipitation mostly shifted east of the area. Drier and warmer Thursday.
1023 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 09z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central WY. Thermal profiles suggest minor snow accumulations possible over the highest Black Hills. Bufkit momentum transfer/ensemble probabilities suggest marginal wind advisory criteria over the far northwest this afternoon and then this evening with the cold front passage.
Temperatures across the Keys range from the lower to mid 80s. Dew points are in the lower to mid 70s and winds remain from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. This is because a low pressure system is beginning to take shape in Texas along the Gulf coast and moving east. This is due to a combination of an upper level low moving across the Texas Big Bend and a remnant frontal boundary draped across the northern Gulf coast. The low developing in the western Gulf will trek eastward along the north Gulf coast through the end of the week.
230 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 The upper low responsible for abundant rainfall this morning across the Permian Basin is beginning to shear out into an open wave over northwestern Texas at the moment. In its wake, increasing short wave ridging and drier air aloft should scatter out cloudiness tonight.
Winds will turn back to the south and then west around midnight after the upper low has fully pushed eastward.
High pressure provides dry weather on Thursday. A brief surge of modestly warmer air will spread across the region ahead of the wave which should be enough to push temperatures to slightly above the climatological average. A few snowflakes may mix in along the ridges and across the far northern zones before precipitation moves out. Building high pressure and increasingly zonal flow will provide mostly dry weather Thursday.
255 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A weak area of low pressure this afternoon will spread a bit of light snow and rain into the western counties. High pressure will pass over the Commonwealth Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and light wind.
250 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Showers have stayed off to the south so far today, but dewpoints are holding in the low to mid 30s for the most part this afternoon as well. This may make the northward spread of showers a bit more difficult with the lower level dry air, but as the upper trough approaches, chances for showers will creep northward early tomorrow morning. The upper trough will move east Thursday, so the precip chances will be confined to the Plateau early Thursday afternoon.
Quiet weather is expected tonight as high pressure begins to build into the area.
An upper level low continues to move into the southern plains this morning with a plume of moisture being advected into much of the southeast and Tennessee valley. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 55 39 53 32 / 70 70 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 55 38 48 30 / 30 60 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 57 38 49 29 / 20 40 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 55 36 44 27 / 10 50 20 20 10.
Wrap around convection/showers on the eastward side of the low is bringing some light to moderate rain for northern parts of the Hill Country. Drier air will filter into the low and mid levels in the wake of this system and begin to clear the area out. Max and min temperatures Thursday will be just at or slightly above climo normals, reaching the low to mid 70s in the afternoon and mid to upper 40's Thursday night.
The cold front associated with this upper storm system will move through earlier in the day.
There is a moderate chance that there will be some late afternoon (far interior) wrap around precipitation along the backside of this low. Despite weaker cold air advection ample sunshine should push Thursday's temperatures up into the lower 70s.
Northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee will be under the wrap-around precipitation north of the warm front for a good chunk of the day, with rain finally moving out of the area Thursday night.
301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Strong southerly flow ahead of our next cold front is bringing near record breaking warm temperatures inland with the Gulf giving the coastal areas a little cooler.
Lows will range from the lower 30s to upper 30s. A low pressure system will drop southeast over the Great Lakes on Thursday, with the upper trough digging southeast over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
Tough call as to predominate precip type as the lower levels may warm enough to keep precip mainly rain. The polar front then moves through and brings northwest winds and a cooler airmass.
This low will pull all this moisture eastward with it allowing a high pressure center to build south out of the central plains behind it. This ridge is what will shut the rain off for the weekend.
1230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A front just to our south will remain nearly stationary this evening before beginning to return north as a warm front into Thursday. Low pressure will move across the area Thursday.
119 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Water vapor imagery showing a potent mid-level trough/closed low chugging east across the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Lift and push of moisture ahead of the attendant cold front from the low will push the likelihood of some rain and snow showers into the area mainly after midnight. Later Thursday morning into the afternoon on the backside of the low, tightening pressure gradient/steepening lapse rates will produce gusty west winds in the 15 to 25 mph range, gusting up to 35 mph. In addition, steepening lapse rates/cooler cyclonic flow expected to produce scattered rain and rain/snow showers.
Temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern zones to the upper 40s across our southern zones.
Temperatures below 7500 feet rose above freezing and precipitation mostly shifted east of the area. Drier and warmer Thursday.
We'll see some lingering clouds and snow showers across the higher terrain with skies becoming mainly clear elsewhere. High pressure will build in on Thursday.
1029 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Mid and high clouds blanketing the entire area this morning as an upper low across west Texas continues moving east.
356 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Strengthening low pressure will move east into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. High pressure from the west builds in Thursday and Thursday night.
159 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast tonight as the upper level low over southwest Texas moves away. A cold front will move through the Panhandles around sunrise Thursday.
Of greater concern are the high winds and fire weather conditions today for a good portion of our CWA. ---BMickelson Previous Discussion: A cold front is expected to push through the region today with a chance for rain and snow showers. Look for northwest winds to ramp up this afternoon and evening with the High Wind Warning remaining on track, especially for terrain favored locations such as the Big Sheeps and Little Rockies. Tonight into Thursday will feature somewhat cooler, though still milder than average temperatures over the CWA, along with drying conditions.
1221 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure will be in control of our weather with dry conditions and warm temperatures until the end of the week.
307 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A weak area of low pressure this afternoon will spread a bit of light snow and rain into the western counties. High pressure will pass over the Commonwealth Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and light wind.
/issued 238 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ (Tonight and Thursday) An upper level low is currently tracking across southern portions of West Central Texas, resulting in moderate to heavy rainfall across much of the area. This low will quickly move east of the area this evening, with rain chances decreasing from west to east. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Thursday afternoon, with winds becoming north at 6 to 12 mph.
819 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Observations show recovery in the low surface humidities across the north and west. Low pressure circulating through srn Canada this afternoon will draw a fairly strong area of Pacific high pressure across British Columbia tonight. A strong cold front will drop through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight bringing with it very dry air. The temperature forecast tonight and Thursday night leans on the warmer short term model blend plus bias correction. The warmer guidance blend is in place for highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday.
An elevated band of low level convergence will increase in a zone between I-20 and I-85 as the upper short wave trof approaches the MS River. Deep layer forcing will overlap the low level convergence band between 9 pm and 3 am, setting a period of enhanced potential for flash flooding. However, additional forcing associated with the upper trof will keep showers going through the morning hours and into the early afternoon.