Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low level moisture continues to stream north into the Ozarks this morning as low pressure develops across southwestern Kansas. We suspect that the low levels will moisten over a deep enough layer to produce areas of drizzle from the predawn hours into this morning. A cold front will then move southeast into the Ozarks this afternoon likely reaching the I-44 corridor around 21 UTC. High temperatures today will actually be warmest behind that cold front across extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri due to clearing skies and cold air advection lagging. Highs should make the lower 70s over this area. In contrast, areas of south-central Missouri should only warm into the lower 60s due to persistent cloud cover. Large scale upper level ridging will then build over the area this weekend.
Overnight temps should remain mild overnight and will likely stay in the lower/mid 60s.
358 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
412 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Despite abundant cloud cover today, gusty southerly winds and strong warm air advection have allowed temperatures to soar into the 70s areawide and even into the low 80s in a couple of locations. The approach of a weak backdoor cold front should provide enough lift for the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms this evening through mid afternoon Saturday.
This will be along a cold front associated with a clipper system moving through the Great Lakes while an upper-level jet streak pushes southward into the Lower Ohio Valley. Cold air advection will be lagging the front until the evening, so temperatures will rebound into the low 70s for most.
341 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Temperatures will continue to slowly rise above freezing and into the middle and upper 30s this afternoon. Areas of fog can be expected into this evening ahead of a cold front moving through tonight.
1115 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017 A flat ridge will be over the area today as a weak disturbance moves over northern CO and southern WY. The upper level ridge will rebuild over the area tonight. Highs today across the southeast plains will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, in the wake of a front. Look for highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the plains, and in the 60s in the high valley locations.
605 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Warm front this evening. Cold front late tonight into Saturday.
Cooler and cloudier conditions return for the weekend with the potential for light precipitation over the North Bay.
Low level cold advective regime kicks in with low level thermal trough setting up across the area.
The relatively tight pressure gradient between low pressure across the northern Great Lakes and high pressure nosing southeastward from the northern plains along with cold advection and mixed layer winds remaining near 35 kts will keep winds on the breezy/gusty side tonight. A few rain/snow showers are possible into tonight, especially across north-central WI with the trough passage and very cool mid-level temps. Clouds will gradually decrease with deep subsidence Saturday as the upper trough pulls away and ridging builds eastward.
224 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 A Pacific cold front was shifting across southwest Missouri this afternoon. This feature will bring in a slightly cooler and drier airmass for tonight and Saturday. Look for highs to range from middle 60s to the lower 70s.
256 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Cold front has entered the northwest part of the forecast area early this afternoon, and was roughly along the Illinois River at 2 pm. Some nice clearing has taken place west of it, and temperatures have quickly risen into the lower 60s from Galesburg to Jacksonville and was even near 70 toward Quincy. 925 mb humidity plots off the RAP model suggest this reaching the northern part of the CWA mid to late evening, and encompassing a good part of it by morning, as an upper low tracks southeast across the western Great Lakes region. This should diminish from west to east as the upper low pulls away. The last half of the weekend will start out with high pressure shifting east of Illinois, and a southerly flow developing.
High pressure over the region today will give way to a very mild southwest flow on Saturday.
335 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Mixed precipitation is expected through Saturday as upper level low pressure crosses the region. Keeping possibility of evening ridge/overnight DUJ vicinity freezing rain in the grids as well. Any snow accumulation should remain an inch or less save for a few ridge locations which may receive a bit more. with rising values after midnight a possibility behind warm front. The upper low will drift across on Saturday, bringing colder 850 mb temperatures back to the region.
Little change from the previous forecast packages, with record high temperatures a good bet at both Phoenix and Yuma and the highest readings of the year expected.
Some rain or snow showers will be possible on Saturday, as an upper level low settles into the Great Lakes.
With high pressure and light winds some of the short-term models are hinting at fog overnight. Much colder temperatures are expected mainly north and east, with cloud cover potentially limiting the high pressure temperature plunge west. However, we will see a quick rebound in temperatures tomorrow as an upper level ridge and warm air advection moves into the region.
There will be light winds and some sunshine with highs a few degrees warmer than today. An upper ridge will be over the area on Saturday night, drifting east as an upper level trough pushes onto the BC/WA coast.
Eventually the low level moisture convergence will shift eastward and and best chance for showers will shift south and east of the CWA by late morning and early this afternoon. The cold front will enter northeast and central Missouri by late this morning and move southeast across the area, reaching southeast Missouri and south central Illinois by 00Z. The chance of rain will end by early this evening as the cold front moves south of the CWA and drier moves in. Went close to agreeable MOS guidance for highs today ahead of the cold front. Carney High pressure over the central and northern Plains will build southeast across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley.
246 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Mostly sunny skies across the Keys area while under the influence of the high pressure centered over the southeastern United States. South Florida and the Keys are on the southern edge of this high pressure, which is the catalyst for the moderate to fresh winds across the Keys. High pressure near the Carolina coast will gradually slide eastward while weakening through Saturday. A clipper system will drop out of Canada and across the Great Lakes Region tonight, and attack the western flank of the ridge.
This will result in continued gradual warming as the high pressure shifts slowly eastward ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper trough driving this front southward looks to dig into the southeastern part of the country Saturday night, and the cooler air behind the front will follow. That being said, the local area will be on the far fringes of the cooler air mass and likely will not see much of a temperature difference.
536 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Made some minor tweaks to the suite of forecast products for this evening per expected model consensus of short ranging timing of numerous shwrs and mainly sct tstms ahead of the associated sfc cold front that is expected to move close to the Land Between The Lakes Region by around 18/06Z and then push sewd thru the majority of the mid state by 18/12Z. Surface map at 17Z shows a cold front still north and west of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, although scattered showers have already developed across Middle Tennessee, and will increase during the afternoon and evening. Despite the absence of an upper trough, the combination of a northwest flow aloft and weak diffluence at 500 mb are contributing to the showers in the pre-frontal environment.
139 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Today will be quiet as high pressure briefly builds into the area. High pressure builds in today cutting off the NW flow and bringing mainly clear skies. Fresh and deep snow cover will keep temps down a bit below what you would normally see given the time of year and ridge. this will delay the onset of the precipitation from the approaching warm front until very late at night. To begin the period Saturday evening, a closed 500 mb low will be located over PA with a developing low pressure system at the surface over the western Atlantic and an inverted trough hanging back into PA.
High pressure will break down tonight as a cold front moves into Central California Saturday afternoon and evening with light showers possible near Yosemite.
Cigs should lower to low MVFR late, with low level moisture pooling expected late over extreme SE OK/extreme NE TX/SW AR along and just ahead of a weak cold front that will sink S to the Red River along the OK/TX border into the Nrn sections of SW AR.
Cold front is currently running from eastern Iowa through southeast Kansas and into west Texas. Temperatures should be much warmer today as compared to the past several days. Highs should reach into the lower 60s northeast to near 70 degrees across the Mississippi Delta counties. A weak cold front will push through the region tonight with increased chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.
The surface map this morning features an area of low pressure over southern Manitoba with a cold front crossing the CWA. Winds will shift to the west, then northwest behind the passage of this cold front. A secondary cold front in NW ND will slide across the CWA by the mid morning hours with gusty winds and cloudy skies expected. The WAA, along with upper level ridging will spread across the eastern Dakotas Saturday night with lows only falling into the 30s.
356 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Active northern stream with closed low moving out of Gulf of Alaska into western Canada. Strong wave over northern Minnesota and then closed low over the Canadian Maritimes with trough down the east coast. Upper ridge over the western Conus.
Lingering moisture in the periphery of the high will move over Southeast Florida providing a few isolated showers tonight into Saturday.
Steep lapse rates and a deeper layer of moisture will exist this afternoon from the low extending southward possibly bringing isolated showers or sprinkles into central MN through west central WI.
312 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Cyclonic flow/caa continues behind the cold front. but we should see ample sunshine along with lighter winds as the high pressure ridge moves through. perhaps a degree cooler.
341 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 An upper level trough was moving eastward into the Great Lakes region while an upper level ridge was building across the Rockies. High pressure was continuing to the build into the state behind a cold front that was located from southern Missouri and southwest Oklahoma. Expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s.
Showers will continue to affect much of the area through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours as a cold front bears down on the region. Even then, the cold air advection is not that strong behind the front and temperatures by dawn on Saturday should only fall off into the low to mid 40s for most locations. The 850 mb trough axis passes by midday and our flow veers more northwesterly with time. Temps should stay at or slightly above freezing Saturday night with the increased cloud cover and decent mixing ongoing through the night.
106 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Cool high pressure will prevail through today.
Cold front at 08z was moving into the Red River valley. Significant warming occurs at 925-850 mb layer Saturday night with 850 mb thermal ridge peaking 12z Sun with +10 to +16C 850 mb temps at that time.
A cold front assoc with the short wave currently extends from N cntrl IL to the STL metro area to SW MO. After some areas that cleared out by early aftn today reached into the lower 70s. The exceptions are portions of cntrl and SE MO which could rebound into the lower 60s after a chilly start in the mid 30s to near 40.
244 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 An axis of elevated instability over the Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon has been the breeding ground for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The activity will move south of the Tennessee border by midnight as a surface cold front moves southeast across our region. The potential for cloud cover in that area may reinforce the thermal gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley. The combination of clear skies and light winds should allow temps to fall below freezing in some areas, mainly north and east of kpah. In light of our recent hard freezes, these near-freezing temps are unlikely to have much additional impact on vegetation.
Given all of the low level moisture across east central KS there may be enough lift to cause drizzle for a few hours. The 850 mb temperatures only cool a few degrees from yesterday, so expect highs today will again reach the lower to mid 70s. High pressure will build southward across the area tonight allowing temperatures to drop back into the 30s.
Lows will be near guidance, but will likely be steady or slowly rising late over the higher terrain. Saturday, upper and thermal ridge peak over the CWA. Rather warm temperatures expected Saturday night with only partial decoupling over the higher terrain.
However, the airmass will not be as cold as the past couple of night with overnight lows generally ranging from the lower 40s across the eastern part of the area to upper 40s across the western part of the area to the low to mid 50s along the panhandle coast.
Wx map shows weak high pressure over the region, with calm winds inland.
1000 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 A trough will shift east of the area this morning allowing a ridge of high pressure to build east across the area this afternoon. High pressure will return to the region for the middle portion of the week. The trough that produced the enhanced snowfall over the western snowbelt counties this morning is moving off to the se. High pressure pushing up the oh valley later today will bring drier air in from the west. This will bring another round of snow to the area overnight, starting in northwest Ohio towards late evening as lift ramps up along the warm front. Airmass is too warm by that time for pure lake effect but some lingering lake enhanced snowfall as another low level trough swings east across Lake Erie.
A dry air mass will continue over the area today as an upper level trough moves east of the area.
Today: Air mass will support temps as warm or warmer with good mixing over most of the area today.
High pressure ridge over the dvn cwa providing clear skies and light winds. Return flow around the ridge has developed an area of low stratus in central IA with warm air advection mid/high level clouds streaming southeast into MN and nw Iowa. The storm system should pull warmer air into the cwa with highs ranging from the lower 30s in far nw IL to around 50 in extreme northeast MO.
As such, high pressure has expanded east from old Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico. Locally, temperatures range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s, with dewpoints in the mid 50s. The high pressure system will continue to expand east across the Gulf into the Florida Peninsula. Moderate north breezes will become northeast to east over the next few days as high pressure modulates across the western North Atlantic.
Warm front tonight. A weak cold front crosses Tuesday morning.
After sub-freezing lows this morning, highs across the region will be mostly in the 40s today. High temps should be roughly five degrees cooler Wed compared to Tue. Lows are expected to be at or above freezing tonight and Tue night.
Some mountain areas warmed into the middle 30s and even a few spots sneaking into the 40s, while the lower valleys and Snake Plain remained in inversion conditions with cold air trapped below.
515 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure on the surface and aloft continued to provide the Four State Area with a dry and fair weather pattern. For the start to the late week, an upper level trough of low pressure will be amplifying South with each disturbance moving through the broad base nudging a cold front into the Four State Area.
/issued 350 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2017/ Thermal ridging is set to amplify today from eastern NM through the Panhandles in advance of a sluggish cold front that should decay near I-40 by daybreak Tue. In spite of a minor trough in dry northwest flow and associated height falls, net thickness gains today within the thermal ridge will clearly win out and ensure unseasonably mild highs. Temperatures Tuesday will be fairly close to what we see this afternoon even with a weak cold front entering into the northern counties of the forecast area by mid-day.
Calm sfc winds are coming around to SW as high pressure over S TX drifts E out into the Gulf. Our climb winds are still NW/W with lighter speeds under ridging aloft from 25-75KTS into flight levels. /issued 515 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2017/ High pressure on the surface and aloft continued to provide the Four State Area with a dry and fair weather pattern. For the start to the late week, an upper level trough of low pressure will be amplifying South with each disturbance moving through the broad base nudging a cold front into the Four State Area.
651 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2017 Added some freezing rain to the northern valley for a couple of hours otherwise no changes. Depending on how far west and south pcpn gets during the day could see a -ra/sn mix in the warmer air. The other concern is wind west of the low track.
An upper trough was centered near 33. Downstream from the trough, an upper ridge was in the process of building/sharpening immediately offshore from the western CONUS, with high level cloudiness spilling eastward across much of CA and the PAC NW. At the surface, high pressure was positioned over the northern Great Basin, with a weaker area of high pressure located off the coast of CA.
For Dane County and locations west and south there may be areas of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle after a few hours of snow this afternoon and early evening as dry air moves into the mid levels.
The surface flow will become more southerly this afternoon and this will allow for warmer temperatures in the 60s across most of the area. Temperatures overnight will be a little warmer also, with lows in the low/mid 40s. Little will change from tonight into Tuesday with surface ridging continuing to prevail and southwest flow continuing. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s across most of the area under mainly clear skies.
501 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 The combination of an upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes and northwest winds behind it is expected to cause 2 to 6 with locally 9 inches of snow by late morning across southwest Michigan and northwest Indiana. A low pressure system will move southeast across the southern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday, causing snow in our area, mainly north of Route 30.
Although synoptic support is waning, numerous snow showers will continue into the afternoon given mesoscale influences, especially north of Pittsburgh and along the ridges. Still appears that most activity will cease by sunset, with a lull of several hours before the next warm front/clipper system. Another system will quickly cross the Great Lakes tonight, spreading light snow across the region along a lifting warm front. Details will continue to be fleshed out as the system gets closer, but at this time, will include accumulating snow for much of the area, with the highest north of Pittsburgh through Tuesday.
High pressure over the region will lead to above normal temperatures for most areas along with lighter winds. A Pacific storm system will bring snow to the highest elevations of the Sierra as well as breezy to windy conditions elsewhere for the last part of the week. More high clouds working through ridge than anticipated so made a minor adjustment to the sky grids.
The upper trough over the eastern CONUS moves east over the Atlantic as ridging builds over the western U. At the surface, the center of an area of high pressure crosses the northern Gulf and settles over the Florida peninsula, resulting in more southwesterly flow building into the local area from southwest to northeast starting Monday afternoon. With this shift in surface flow and the departing upper level trough, will see temperatures climbing back to around seasonal and the start of slow moisture return from the Gulf through the near term.
347 AM MST Mon Jan 30 2017 Dry and warm weather continues across our area with Colorado downstream of a ridge across California and Southern Nevada and the jet stream well north across Southern Alberta/ Northern Montana.
Skies should remain mostly cloudy which will limit overnight lows to the low teens to middle 20s. Tuesday and Tuesday night an inverted trough extending behind the Monday clipper, producing snow showers across much of the area, gradually diminishing Tuesday night.
Snow shower coverage will begin to decrease by midday as the upper trough exits to the east. Another system will quickly cross the Great Lakes tonight, spreading light snow across the region along a lifting warm front. Details will continue to be fleshed out as the system gets closer, but at this time, will include accumulating snow for much of the area, with the highest north of Pittsburgh through Tuesday.
325 AM PST Mon Jan 30 2017 The combination of high pressure aloft and offshore flow will continue to bring fair skies and above normal temperatures through Tuesday to most areas.
351 AM MST Mon Jan 30 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the California coast will result in dry and stable weather over New Mexico with VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Northerly flow on the back side of the ridge will allow thin patches of high clouds to cross. High pressure over California will drift southeast through this week and bring very dry and mild weather to New Mexico. Winds will be a bit breezy along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and portions of the high plains through this week.
The past few days have been warmer than forecast and so have warmed temperatures a bit from previous forecast. Winds will turn more toward the northwest during the day as a weak cold front moves through the area. With the cold front passing through the area during the day, temperatures will cool off a little for tonight. Lows in the mid to upper 20s will be a bit cooler than the past couple of nights, but still above normal for this time of year. On Tuesday night a stronger PV wave will dive southward into the trough over the east.
327 AM PST Mon Jan 30 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the West Coast through Tuesday night. This will bring intense valley inversions, light winds, and poor mixing with degraded air quality in the lower valleys.
For tonight, the low level jet may strengthen enough to cause wind shear late in the period, so will include at all sites.
WV imagery showed a potent vort movg through southern Alberta, with a developing low pressure system in southeast Alberta, where a 3-hour pressure fall max of nearly 5 mb was located.
ridge and the broad eastern CONUS trough axis. will become somewhat dampened through the week per central/eastern Canadian troughing. trough and less amplified Great Basin ridge will translate to a near zonal flow pattern across the state through mid week.
Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region.
Near the surface, winds will gain a southerly component helping to usher in some warmer air from the southwest. With high pressure gradually building over the area, limited moisture, and no forcing, not expecting anything in the way of precip today.