Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
847 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Warm conditions are expected today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Canadian high pressure will bring colder air into the Carolinas Friday through the weekend. Previous discussion follows: Pictures from space in the water vapor channel show well the upper ridge over the Gulf states and Carolinas, while the IR channel depicts an overall scarcity of clouds across the region. Overnight temperatures will remain mild ahead of an approaching cold front. Primary headline this period is air mass change as high pressure cell from Canada moves SE into the area.
A cold front will move into the region tonight with a few showers expected. Moisture in the lower levels will be somewhat limited and visibility in showers is not expected to become particularly low.
Rebuilding high pressure across the southeastern U.
848 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A disturbance traveling along a westerly flow aloft will interact with an unstable airmass ahead of a cold front, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms through early tonight. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist on Friday when the cold front will be crossing the forecast area.
1144 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A few exiting light showers and lingering clouds are in the area, with cooler and drier conditions. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates a strengthening upper-level trough over the Great Lakes, with 500mb height falls up to 70m over WI/MI. Moisture fields were messy in wake of the morning convection, but 8-15C dewpoints were noted in many areas east of the trough axes associated with the lows.
712 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front located across the Upper Great Lakes will move across the area late tonight into Friday. A ridge will build in behind the trough and slowly move east over the weekend.
Latest model solutions show little discernible change in near term forecast with upper low tracking along the U.
656 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A surface cold front will continue to push well south of the CWA through the evening hours as a complex of thunderstorms ahead of the boundary enters southern Missouri. Storm chances along this boundary will decrease through the evening hours as high pressure settles further south.
a cold front extends from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Convergence ahead of an approaching upper trough will contribute to shower and thunderstorm development from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Region, this pattern persisting through this upcoming weekend. The actual surface cold front is well upstream of the forecast area attm. However, thunderstorms were abundant across the entire region per outflow boundaries which continue to get generated from MCS features developing and moving downstream into the high CAPE airmass over the southeastern CONUS.
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Rather widespread cumulus and stratocumulus field this afternoon as upper troughing swings through the Great Lakes.
/issued 302 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ Skies have become mostly sunny across much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 90s. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday as a weak cold front moves into the region.
738 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 An upper level short wave trof was dropping southeastward through the forecast area this afternoon. Meanwhile, a series of surface trofs were moving across the area as the vertically stacked system that was overhead yesterday continues to pull of to the northeast. The upper level trof will slowly move over northwest Wisconsin tonight as the aforementioned system exits. However, another upper level trof is progged to clip the Canadian border in the afternoon.
749 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 High pressure becomes nearly stationary off the Southeast Coast through Friday.
The big changes to the going forecast will be to reduce POPs areawide prior to 06Z, and to confine the highest POPS after 06Z to areas generally along and west of Highway 75 and south of Interstate 40, nearest the instability maximum to the west.
624 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A few exiting light showers and lingering clouds are in the area, with cooler and drier conditions. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates a strengthening upper-level trough over the Great Lakes, with 500mb height falls up to 70m over WI/MI. Moisture fields were messy in wake of the morning convection, but 8-15C dewpoints were noted in many areas east of the trough axes associated with the lows.
A drier and more stable westerly flow is spreading across MT this evening as weak upper level high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies behind a weather disturbance moving east from NE MT to ND. Showers and thunderstorms will develop and spread NE across western portions of N-Central and SW MT Friday afternoon as an upper level low pressure system approaches from the West.
1010 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A low pressure trough in advance of a cold front will produce thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with some storms possibly severe. The cold front will approach the region later tonight then move across the region Friday. another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected as a cold front will cross the region. It'll be another hot day especially across interior Downeast where the cold front won't cross until late in the day. The cold front will stall along the Downeast coast Friday night, while an upper level disturbance approaches northwest areas.
608 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A weak cold front will continue to sink southward tonight and tomorrow.
/issued 244 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A strong 594 DAM upper high looks to remain anchored in the vicinity of southwest NM through the forecast period thereby maintaining a dry, subsident, and weak northeast to east flow aloft over deep south TX.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 89 71 90 / 50 70 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 89 69 87 / 40 50 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 68 90 69 87 / 40 50 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 67 85 / 40 40 40 50.
66 inches with some dry air in the low to mid levels. but warmer along the south coastal beaches in the upper 70s.
A cold front passes Friday/Friday night. But then ramping back up Friday as a cold front sinks through. Cold front will be slowly working its way through the CWA and will stall in a northeast-southwest oriented line next to the mountains.
1150 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front slowly tracking south from northern Wisconsin/Michigan will usher in low VFR clouds overnight from northwest to southeast, potentially reaching the southern taf sites by sunrise. Light south-west winds overnight will pick up above 10 knots again by noon, before weakening and shifting to the northwest-north late behind the cold front. The second in the series of weak and diffuse cold fronts was moving through Lower Michigan this afternoon. the GFS seems to be the outlier with the southward push of both the 850 and 500 mb cooler temps. Will lean toward the warmer solution, but still significantly lower than most of this past week.
809 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 High pressure becomes nearly stationary off the Southeast Coast through Friday.
1206 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. Upper ridge offshore will be weakening as long wave upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
732 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Fair weather is expected behind a cold front tonight with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s. Another cold front will move through the area friday, possibly causing a few showers over southern michigan, northeast indiana, and northwest ohio. Highs friday will be below normal, ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 At 3 PM, a cold front was located across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. High temperatures on Friday will be in the lower to mid-70s which is about 10F below normal.
/issued 329 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ Forecast area remains between an upper level ridge over west Texas and a weakness over the Gulf South/Lower Mississippi Valley. mainly over eastern portions with less influence of the ridge. the upper level ridge will shift slightly to the west and northwest.
743 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A disturbance traveling along a westerly flow aloft will interact with an unstable airmass ahead of a cold front, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms through early tonight. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist on Friday when the cold front will be crossing the forecast area.
No real relief from the warm and humid air is expected through at least Friday as a cold front is slow to arrive.
1030 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A weak cold front will continue to sink southward tonight and tomorrow.
Have opted to adjust the high temps for Friday up a degree or two in some locations. /issued 244 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A strong 594 DAM upper high looks to remain anchored in the vicinity of southwest NM through the forecast period thereby maintaining a dry, subsident, and weak northeast to east flow aloft over deep south TX.
516 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 20z surface analysis had a ridge of high pressure centered over the CWA. This will bring southeasterly winds and warmer temperatures. Low amplified trough/ULL will be in place over the Pacific NW with weak ridging in the Northern Plains for the weekend.
A thermal trough will bring moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas through Friday.
1002 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. As of 340 PM Thursday, a cold front will sink into the northern portions of the CWA early Friday before retreating slowly north during the day. Temperatures looks to be a degree or two cooler tomorrow with a bit more cloud cover and have opted to hold off on any Heat Advisories tomorrow as conditions will be a bit more marginal.
/issued 607 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ Skies have become mostly sunny across much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 90s. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday as a weak cold front moves into the region.
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A warm front will pass through the Tri-State Region tonight. A cold front will track through the area Friday night. The cold front will remain nearly stationary south of the region through the weekend.
Do not anticipate any potential of strong to svr tstms tonight, but with this moisture rich summer time air mass, along with subtle upper level troughing setting up across the mid state, and possible passages of weak disturbances in this troughing aloft, and convection previously rolling thru mid state late this morning thru the afternoon hours at least turning over the atm initially, but with outflow boundaries still set up across the mid state from convection this afternoon, but diurnal heating influences will increasingly wane, a lot of quandaries if and where convection will develop across the mid state tonight.
734 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A warm front will pass through the Tri-State Region tonight. A cold front will track through the area Friday night. The cold front will remain nearly stationary south of the region through the weekend.
A summertime cold front has invaded the Texas Panhandle, and showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of the boundary during peak heating.
Tomorrow a ridge of high pressure will weaken slightly but generally there will not be much change to the temperatures. Inland temperatures will cool back to near seasonal averages over the weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the West Coast. This brought cooler temperatures across the district today except for a slight warming over the far interior valleys. Upper level high over the southwest will weaken slightly on Friday.
729 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. The upper level trough to our west has supported convection from central AL into TN. Upper ridge offshore will be weakening as long wave upper level trough over the Great Lakes region amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
606 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 At 3 PM, a cold front was located across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. High temperatures on Friday will be in the lower to mid-70s which is about 10F below normal.
909 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front located across the Upper Great Lakes will move across the area late tonight into Friday. A ridge will build in behind the trough and slowly move east over the weekend.
1128 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 Latest sfc analysis places high pressure over central Nebraska this morning with last evening's cold front now stretched along the Missouri/Arkansas border. Aforementioned high pressure will continue drifting east today, ensuring light north winds and slightly cooler conditions as highs max out in the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon. As this occurs, fcst models in excellent agreement that cooler air will surge southward with time, ultimately putting a halt to the above normal temperatures we've experienced in recent days.
303 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 The weak cold front that meandered south through the heart of the Texas Panhandle this morning has stalled across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle along our northern row of counties with little effect on the ambient weather. The approaching ridge axis to the west will help moderate the cooling trend the farther west and south you go across our CWA. Surface ridging will build in following a cold front on Wednesday.
High pressure over the region will lead to above normal temperatures for most areas along with lighter winds through Wednesday. A Pacific storm system will bring snow to the highest elevations of the Sierra as well as breezy to windy conditions elsewhere for the last part of the week.
Temperatures will climb to around 10 degrees above normal, with afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 70 degrees in the lowland deserts starting Wednesday. This will allow the ridge to its west to shift eastward, though it will flatten-out as it does so. Despite the deamplification of the ridge, temperatures will continue to slowly climb over the next couple of days.
Nearly zonal flow aloft will persist over the region south of a broad upper upper trough over southern Canada and the northern U.
Overnight temperatures will be a little warmer tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 30s across the I-10 corridor to the mid 40s along the I-20 areas. Cold front will move across West Central Texas on Wednesday, although for areas south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line the front will arrive after peak heating. In these areas, afternoon highs will climb into the lower 70s and lower 80s. Cooler temperatures across the Big Country with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 60s. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) A cold front will move south of West Central Texas by late evening Wednesday.
Lows tonight are expected in the low to mid 30s. and the warmer conditions along the southern states.
232 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 A fairly stagnant upper level pattern persist across much of the region, as a broad trough remains over the northeastern CONUS with a ridge over the west coast. Not much change in the sensible weather pattern overnight, with the exception of an increase in low level clouds as the lower levels continue to saturate. With the steady flow of moisture, the lower levels will become saturated by Wednesday afternoon, as the boundary enters the area.
As of 08Z, the low was centered over southeast WI and will continue to shift east through the day. Without any significant cold air in the immediate wake of the low, temps will rise into or remain in the 30s today. An upper wave well to the north rotating through the longwave trough over eastern Canada will drag a cold front through on Wednesday.
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure will lift northeastward from our area through tonight.
A final dry day with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected.
1206 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 A strong low pressure system in the Great Lakes will slowly churn its way to the Northeast. As this system moves off, a couple of post frontal troughs supported by weak upper level short waves will move through the region. Tuesday night, a second trough will come through the state. As the trough passes, a high pressure ridge will begin to build into the region and will re-enforce the CAA already in place and will drop temperatures further.
322 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Elongated low pressure stretches across northern Michigan at the moment. Winds veer into the northwest behind the trough.
A general surface wind shift to the west will continue early today as Pacific-sourced air sweeps into the PAH forecast area to the south of a low pressure system traversing the Great Lakes. Lows Wed night are forecast to be below freezing across the entire region, though this might occur tonight in parts of southern IL.
333 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 High pressure at the surface and quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue to overall maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight into Wednesday afternoon. However, a weak cold front will try to sink south into the far northern quarter of the CWA late Wednesday afternoon. Then for Wednesday afternoon, with a gradual increase in clouds through the day, we should still warm pretty decently ahead of the boundary with highs ranging from the low to upper 70s.
218 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2017 21z surface analysis had cold front from Lake Superior to central WY with arctic boundary sinking south into MT/ND courtesy of Canada. 140kt jet streak over MT into the eastern Dakotas impinging on 850-700mb baroclinic zone in place across the CWA along cold frontal boundary. Previous updates addressed expected snowfall totals with highest amounts where weak upslope enhancement assists accumulations over the higher Black Hills.
Given the mild start, have bumped highs up to the low and mid 50s across southern IN and north central KY. Meanwhile, southern KY could find the low 60s. Temps should stay at or just above freezing so not expecting any impacts/accums if snow does fall.
Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Eastern Gulf, with light southwest winds less than 5 mph inland, except near 10 mph across Central Louisiana where a slightly tighter pressure gradient exists.
Another trough will slide across the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. High pressure will gradually move from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will begin to drop late afternoon as the low moves off to the east.
Baker Low amplitude troughing with zonal flow aloft will continue through the remainder of the week.
A pleasant day is in store with high pressure ridging draped across the area. Sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and highs in the low to mid 70s is anticipated.
For rest of this afternoon and evening, an increase in snow intensity is expected as the Canadian cold front interacts with the pacific moisture over west-central/southwest Montana and over central Idaho. Additionally, increased east and north east winds are expected late this evening and tonight, that along with colder temperatures, will bring concern for refreeze of wet pavement as the Canadian cold front moves through.
Broad troughing and cyclonic flow will prevail aloft, with southern Wisconsin located along the poleward extent of a 140 knot speed max nosing in from the northern Great Plains. A cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air Wednesday morning, with falling temperatures by afternoon. Wind should pick up similar to today, as the pressure gradient tightens due to strong high pressure building towards us from the northern Rockies and Great Plains.
342 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 A low pressure system will track north of the Mid Atlantic tonight. This system will push a cold front overhead by Wednesday before stalling over North Carolina later this week. West winds continue to downslope across the Piedmont, which has lowered dewpoints and relative humidity values significantly along and east of the Blue Ridge. The highest wind gusts have been observed at Hot Springs. A low pressure system will track over New York tonight, which will push a cold front over the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday morning. However, high temperatures were kept toward the cooler side of guidance due to continued cloud cover and a low chance of precipitation in the mountains. Frontal boundary shifts south of us Wednesday night allowing for cooler advection.
As surface temperatures were running cooler than observations temperatures were increased by a couple degrees and the relative humidity was changed due to increase in surface temperatures.
Light snow began at Baker and McCall around 16z and will continue south into the Lower Treasure Valley late tonight. There remains a large dicrepency between the models with how far south the snow and cold front moves along with how much snow falls. By Wednesday afternoon, the frontal boundary will begin to drift north under the influence of an incoming trough off the Pacific coast and its associated southwesterly flow aloft.
A weak surface cold front moved thru last evening with temps still much above average for the time of day, as readings were still falling thru the 40s. The airmass that has moved in behind the cold front is not much cooler than the one it replaced and MOS temps look like a good first guess on maxes, with many locations topping out in the 50s once again. TES There may be some lingering flurries across west central IL Wednesday morning along an area of weak mid level frontogenetical forcing well behind a surface cold front.
South of the front, low level thermal ridging overhead suggests highs will at least be near or slightly above yesterday's readings. although the cooler low-level air will remain to our north. 00z models show a rather broad thermal ridge across a good portion of our forecast area. but areas south will likely be as warm if not warmer than yesterday.
High pressure ridge axis will remain extended across east central Florida, with airmass remaining quite dry. After the somewhat chilly start to the morning, the gradual warmup will continue into tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
At the surface, there is a high pressure system that will keep winds fairly light through the day and tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be cooler than yesterday due to the cold advection and lack of sunshine.
/issued 343 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ Still have a cut off low sitting over Baja with an upper ridge extending up the West Coast. This low will weaken as it gets swept east. The ridge will nearly flatten out late in the week as near zonal flow sets up across the country. A cold front arrives in the NE CWA Wednesday afternoon and moves through Wednesday night.
313 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 Winds will gradually diminish in speed across the area tonight as high pressure approaches from the northwest. The high will settle in over the western half of the state on Wednesday, keeping conditions dry, but allowing for colder air to begin to move in. To start Wednesday night, the main 500mb low will be across Hudson Bay, with a ridge across the Pacific Coast of the continuous states up through Canada.
Also tweaked temps up most places as they started off warmer than expected.
300 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure will lift northeastward from our area through tonight.
/issued 336 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ The massive upper trough from the west conus to well off the east conus will make it very hard for any system to become progressive.