Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
553 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Satellite imagery continues to show the upper closed low spin over portions of the central/southern Plains. As the main upper level system continues east into the Ohio Valley, upper ridging will move overhead for the weekend.
There may be a severe storm or two ahead of the cold front with damaging winds being the primary threat. The activity should come to quick end from west to east as the cold front traverses the region. Strong thunderstorms are expected tonight into tomorrow morning as the cold front initiates convection offshore.
Another very warm and dry day for interior locations this afternoon as cooler conditions return near the coast. Coastal regions have definitely trended cooler this afternoon where the marine stratus from the southerly surge has influenced the solar insolation. Speaking of the southerly surge, satellite shows that it's hit the Golden Gate Bridge and is currently near Pt Reyes as it continues it's trek northward. It will be most notable across the interior where daytime highs tomorrow will be a good 10-20 degrees cooler than today. The rest of the week and through the Memorial Holiday Weekend, our region will have near to slightly cooler than normal daytime highs with similar temperatures as Thursday or a bit cooler.
944 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 A deep upper low is situated over northern OK this evening and will slowly track ENE into SW MO by Thursday morning. Convection developing along am approaching cold front in Arkansas will sweep through the Mid-South overnight. /issued 359 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/ Unsettled weather pattern for the next couple of days as an upper low tracks just north of the Mid-South.
A Heat Advisory continues for the lower elevations today as temperatures warm up to around 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
The warm moist southerly flow around Atlantic High and closed low to the west over the southern plains will continue to help bring showers across at least the western sections of the forecast area overnight tonight. Have lowered pops for a few hours western sections then increase them some in the mountains to at least high chance and chance pops for all but the northeast sections where the low level flow is still southeast and inducing drying conditions over the mountains. Most temperatures are in the upper 60s to the lower 70s at 10pm and will only fall a few more degrees in the very moist airmass.
/issued 359 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/ Unsettled weather pattern for the next couple of days as an upper low tracks just north of the Mid-South.
Expect scattered to numerous showers to continue to pinwheel north tonight, with the most persistent activity to remain focused for areas north of the big bridge. The marginal risk, of rainfall over flash flood guidance, continues into the evening, as the moisture with the warm front continues to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico more rain will break up, especially along the 500 mb jet that is oriented roughly S to N, along Lake Michigan and NW Lower, and crossing E Upper.
A ridge of high pressure will build over western NM Thursday with much less wind and warmer temperatures compared to recent days. Yesterday's storm has moved off to the northeast, as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west.
(The rest of tonight) Upper low that has been affecting the area the past several days continues to very slowly drift eastward this evening. It will be another cool night for late May with lows in the low to mid 50s for most areas. Bowlan (Thursday through Wednesday) The upper low will track into eastern MO later Thursday, with any lingering showers tapering off late in the day.
Better organized showers/tstms may begin to spread ewd into NW AL early Thu, as a cold front approaches from the west.
Stuck between a closed upper low in the Southern Plains and a progressive upper trough over the Canadian Prairie, stratus will linger across much of the region east of the James River Valley overnight. Thus expect cooler air to linger longest east of I-29 with highs only reaching the 60s to near 70 degrees. Aside from a breezy north wind and showers east of I-29, areas near and west of I-29 should see a pretty nice, slightly warmer day. Upper ridging and broad WAA bring pleasant and dry conditions to kick off Memorial Day weekend.
646 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Quiet and pleasant weather through Thursday behind the cold front that caused our thunderstorms last night. Lows tonight will again be cooler than normal, dropping into the low to mid 50s in most areas. For Thursday, temperatures will rebound quickly from the cooler readings today, warming up into the upper 80s to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies.
621 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Key Messages: - More Showers Tonight, Exiting East Thu - Rain/Storm Chances for Holiday Weekend * SHOWERS TONIGHT, PUSHING EAST THU The morning swath of showers continues to push northward as the low level warm air advection (main driver) shifts across the northern great lakes.
Upper trough off to our west will continue southerly flow over the region, bringing in additional moisture and rounds of showers and thunderstorms overnight and during the day Thursday. (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Dreary weather pattern will continue over the next 36 hours as an upper-level trough slowly crosses the area. With the warm front well to our north, our area is receiving plenty of low- level moisture coming from the Gulf.
626 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Dreary weather pattern will continue over the next 36 hours as an upper-level trough slowly crosses the area. With the warm front well to our north, our area is receiving plenty of low- level moisture coming from the Gulf.
524 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof axis shifting east from the Plains with upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, lee trof is deepening to our west. Western CONUS ridge will continue to build east, peaking over the Northern Plains by Frridgeiday.
A cold front will move through the area late Thursday.
Large upper trough over the Central to Southern Plains has led to deep layer warm air advection and WV transport into the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley region today, bringing widespread light to moderate rain. The upper low will shift into southern Missouri on Thursday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms across eastern Iowa and west-central Illinois, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Synoptically, a ridge of high pressure will be building and pushing eastward across the region starting tonight and continuing through tomorrow. The plains will cool into the low to mid 40s, the valleys dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s, and the mountains falling into the mid to upper 20s. During the day tomorrow, given the expanding ridge over the region, temperatures will start an above average warming trend, with values 5-10Â°F above average. Key Messages: 1) Warmer and drier weather into the beginning of this weekend.
215 PM PDT Wed May 25 2022 A Heat Advisory continues for the lower elevations today as temperatures warm up to around 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
The surface front associated with the low will be moving through north Florida by Friday morning, and settling in across north-central Florida by Friday night. The plume of dry mid-level air advecting around the base of the Atlantic ridge will reside over south Florida for another day before the more progressive low pressure system moves the ridge eastward and ushers in deeper level moisture. As low- level flow veers southerly and a ribbon of tropical moisture reaches south Florida around the base of the low-level ridge, more widespread shower activity is expected across all of south Florida starting late tonight into early tomorrow afternoon. On Friday, highs will be more uniformly in the low 90s across all of south Florida.
Expect highs to range from the lower 70s at Medicine Lodge to the lower 80s at Elkhart, along with breezy north winds.
1132 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022 Eroding high pressure will support the return of warm and humid conditions with thunderstorms possible on Thursday and Friday. Southwest flow aloft continues around deep upper level low pressure over the southern Plains. Warm, moist air will continue to advance into the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains as the axis of a ridge shifts further east into New England. The low is projected to weaken by the time the center moves into the Upper Ohio Valley late Friday. Mid-level lapse rates within the low are 6-6. Showers/thunderstorms will decrease and shift southeast late Friday night along with the low pressure.
1050 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022 A high pressure ridge is moving in from the west bringing strong subsidence aloft and the clear sunny skies we see today. Look for temperatures to warm ten degrees tomorrow under the ridge with light to breezy afternoon winds. The overnight lows tonight will still cool to freezing in some of the higher valleys, so you'll want to cover your gardens tonight. Look for temperatures to warm another five degrees Friday as the ridge kicks out to the east. The high pressure will give us lighter winds to ease the fire danger, but the heat will lend to drying the fuels, exacerbating the fire dangers in the coming days and weeks. On Friday, the ridge of high pressure slides east and a system moves into the Pacific Northwest.
400 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Overall scenario depicts a slowly departing low giving way to upper level ridging from the west.
118 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 For the 26/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with clouds mainly limited to mid and high clouds wrapping around the stacked sfc and upper lows to our north.
Generally quasi-zonal to arguably weak ridging will be in place tonight and into early Thursday. A cold front will move through the area late Thursday.
1229 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 (The rest of tonight) Upper low that has been affecting the area the past several days continues to very slowly drift eastward this evening. It will be another cool night for late May with lows in the low to mid 50s for most areas.
/Today through Friday/ Upper-level trough to our north continues to slowly spin eastward from SE Kansas with low pressure stacked down to the sfc. Meanwhile, high pressure at the sfc will gradually build south from the Plains.
Once this activity exits the region early this evening, timing of additional rounds of showers and storms is still hard to pin down at this time as the upper level low slowly makes its way through the forecast area. Byrd The upper level low will finally push to the east of the forecast area by Friday evening.
Tonight: A low pressure center over northeast Missouri will quickly lift to eastern Upper Michigan late tonight or early Thursday morning. Thursday: After a brief break in the precipitation early in the day, yet another low pressure system will brush by the area to the southeast.
1051 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022 The CWA was sandwiched between a upper low over the east-central Great Plains and upper ridge over the Intermountain West. Some high clouds were passing across northern WY, with scattered diurnal cumulus clouds over the higher terrain and NE Panhandle. Temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Looking at a fairly benign short term weather-wise with ridging at the surface and aloft the dominant feature. As the ridge slowly shifts to the east, winds aloft will back from northwesterly Thursday to southwesterly Friday. Mid/upper clouds will increase from west to east well in advance of a Pacific low pressure trough moving into the western CONUS.
309 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Upper low was near Joplin, MO VCNTY with a stalled frontal boundary from nw MO to ne IA into central WI. Today: Upper low will track across the MO Ozarks to southern IN by 12z Friday. Spokes of PVA will rotate around this low and produce off and on showers and thunderstorms. Tonight: With the upper low tracking farther east the showers and storms will also gradually diminish or end from west to east overnight. Lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s. Cold Front midweek will bring chances for pops to area.
Upper ridge axis moves overhead for tonight/Friday with dry conditions though winds will be on the increase ahead of the next system.
Light winds will continue tonight as an upper level high pressure ridge edges east over the southern and central Rockies. Dry and quiet weather will dominate tonight along with cool lows in the lower to mid 50s. Ridging aloft will be located over the forecast area on Friday, but will quickly be flattened as troughing moves into the Western U.
233 AM MDT Thu May 26 2022 An upper ridge over the Rockies amplifies today and provides another dry and warmer day. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s in many places. Some energy and moisture spread into western areas and provide clouds and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight but this will be mainly over the higher terrain. Friday will be another warm day as the upper ridge gets nudged east. Highs should get back into the lower 80s over central and eastern zones, mid 70s over the west. Heights lower through the day and due to some cooler air aloft moving in, instability increases.
After seasonable temperatures today and Thursday, cooler weather will settle into the area on Friday as the system pulls off to the east. Much warmer conditions are in store for the holiday weekend. The upper low will track across southern Illinois and Indiana on Friday, therefore showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, although with much less instability. A cooler airmass is also expected on Friday as the flow shifts northwesterly on the backside of the low.
/issued 944 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/ A deep upper low is situated over northern OK this evening and will slowly track ENE into SW MO by Thursday morning. Convection developing along am approaching cold front in Arkansas will sweep through the Mid-South overnight. /issued 359 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/ Unsettled weather pattern for the next couple of days as an upper low tracks just north of the Mid-South. The upper low will finally move out of the Mid-South Friday evening. So the weekend should be dry as an upper high moves into the area.
412 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022 A slow, eastward progressing upper low keeps the pattern unsettled through Friday, with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected.
While cloud cover will linger across eastern SD tonight as a large storm system moves slowly northeast, high pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies across the area by Thursday late morning. Generally quiet weather continues into Thursday night as a ridge of high pressure aloft remains in place. The period starts off with flat upper ridging over the region for Friday. The ridge should provide for warmer, but still dry conditions. However, as we head toward the weekend, mid and upper troffing will begin to settle into the western CONUS, and then gradually amplify, with strong ridging developing over the eastern CONUS.
(Today through Friday afternoon) An upper level ridge will move east into New Mexico and Texas the next couple of days. Today will be seasonal with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Tomorrow will be much hotter as the upper ridge axis reaches eastern New Mexico and West Texas. This extrapolates to 100s in the lower elevations of the Pecos River valley to mid 90s in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Lower 850mb temps in the eastern CWA are somewhat offset by the lower elevations which will allow highs to approach the century mark there.
Then tomorrow, the low moves east over the Ozark Plateau and a cold front moves through our area. The low intensity and amount of time the rain will fall will keep flooding concerns limited to localized areas. We finally shake this low pressure system, the clouds, and the rain by Friday. High pressure then moves in making Friday a really nice day. For the holiday weekend, we can expect upper level ridging to give us dry conditions and summer temperatures.
Expect scattered to numerous showers to continue to pinwheel north tonight, with the most persistent activity to remain focused for areas north of the big bridge. The marginal risk, of rainfall over flash flood guidance, continues into the evening, as the moisture with the warm front continues to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico more rain will break up, especially along the 500 mb jet that is oriented roughly S to N, along Lake Michigan and NW Lower, and crossing E Upper. Not a whole lot of change to the forecast with waves of low pressure continuing to rotate through the parent trough aloft centered to our south.
307 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Pesky slow moving upper low will continue to pinwheel and move eastward across Missouri today. Transient ridging aloft will move into the area on Friday with increasing southerly surface flow across central Kansas during the afternoon and continued warming over the forecast area.
1043 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof axis shifting east from the Plains with upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, lee trof is deepening to our west. Western CONUS ridge will continue to build east, peaking over the Northern Plains by Frridgeiday. There could be a few storms late Friday as upper ridge axis shifts east and surface trof crosses the western Dakotas, but overall coverage and severe threat should be limited given lack of moisture, instability, and deep layer shear.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Closed 500 mb low pressure centered roughly over Missouri will steadily move east into Ohio during the period. This will allow 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over north-central Mexico to shift northeast and become increasingly more dominant over the BRO CWFA. Although temperatures will ease into slightly above normal to above normal territory courtesy of the mid-level ridge, values for today and Friday are actually a few degrees below NBM model guidance due to widespread wetted soils from recent rains.
Southwest flow aloft will develop tonight and continue into Thursday which will advect warmer air into the region. Temperatures will be the warmest so far this year with highs around 90F in the lower valleys - including the Treasure Valley. Moisture will start to move into the area during the afternoon as a Pacific upper trough approaches the Northwest. Ridging over the region will continue dry and warm conditions into Thursday. A trough impacting the region will interact with moderate amounts of instability, with showers and thunderstorms anticipated. Parameters show the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially over the higher elevations.
A surface boundary will linger in the vicinity as a cold front approaches the region on Thursday.
A cold front continues to move east through the forecast area this morning. Some clouds associated with the east advancing low pressure system over Southwest Kansas could linger across mainly northern portions of the area this afternoon into tonight, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected across much of the area come late afternoon and into tonight. Highs today will range from the middle 70s north to the lower 80s south.
Expect highs today in the low to mid 90s for most locations.
1214 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Quiet and pleasant weather through Thursday behind the cold front that caused our thunderstorms last night. Lows tonight will again be cooler than normal, dropping into the low to mid 50s in most areas. For Thursday, temperatures will rebound quickly from the cooler readings today, warming up into the upper 80s to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies.
335 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 A complex forecast is shaping up today, as multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and push across the Tennessee Valley along and ahead of a cold front. Additional clusters of showers and storms have developed just ahead of and along the synoptic cold front draped just east of the Mississippi River. Southerly low-level wind shear is expected to gradually increase through the morning hours as the mid/upper trough pivots into the Mid South/lower Ohio Valley. Still, given the slow movement of the mid/upper low over the Ohio Valley, cloud cover will stick around in some capacity even into the day on Friday.
1222 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Dreary weather pattern will continue over the next 36 hours as an upper-level trough slowly crosses the area. With the warm front well to our north, our area is receiving plenty of low- level moisture coming from the Gulf.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ A stacked low pressure system continues to shift east through the Plains, pushing all of the associated convection farther east into the deep south.
1104 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022 A slow, eastward progressing upper low keeps the pattern unsettled through Friday, with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected.
This morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a closed low placed over the Central Plains, with weak ridging building over the Desert Southwest and nearly zonal flow across North Dakota. Ridging is expected to expand to the north and east through the day, which should help clear skies out and warm temperatures into the 70s, with a few locations possibly hitting the lower 80s. Friday will be the warmest day of the period under the influence of the ridge, with forecast highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The active pattern continues through the weekend as southwest flow aloft persists over the Northern Plains downstream of a deepening trough across the western CONUS.
1032 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Key Messages: - More Showers Tonight, Exiting East Thu - Rain/Storm Chances for Holiday Weekend * SHOWERS TONIGHT, PUSHING EAST THU The morning swath of showers continues to push northward as the low level warm air advection (main driver) shifts across the northern great lakes.
With the low shifting east tonight, cloud cover will decrease across the region and winds will become relatively light as the pressure gradient weakens. Dewpoints in the low to mid 30's should help keep the area out of frost conditions though they may lower enough in far western parts of the area for patchy frost to occur. An upper ridge is forecasted to move into the area which will help begin the transition to warmer and drier conditions. Friday, conditions are forecasted to be warmer as 850mb temps are forecasted to reach the upper 20's. As the low moves over the area, there is a chance that it could provide enough lift for a few thunderstorms.
221 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022 A slow, eastward progressing upper low keeps the pattern unsettled through Friday, with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected.
This afternoon through Thursday night Drier and warmer conditions will be in place across the forecast area today and Thursday. A flat ridge over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies today will allow for high clouds to stream over much of the area through the rest of the morning. The ridge will amplify Thursday, as it moves over the Cowboy State. The ridge will continue to track eastward Thursday night. Weak showers will be possible over western portions, as a cold front approaches. The ridge that has been in place most of the week will slide east on Friday as a broad trough pushes in. This will bring a return to cooler and wetter conditions through the weekend. On Friday showers and thunderstorms are most likely across the northwest closest to the trough axis and better moisture.
1124 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge building over NM next 24 hrs with lighter winds. Yesterday's storm has moved off to the northeast, as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west. The ridge will reach NM Thursday and remain over the state Friday. The high pressure ridge will move east this weekend as a couple of storms slam into the Pacific Northwest, carving out a trough over the Great Basin this weekend.