Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light southwest winds overnight will become northwest at 10 to 15 knots by late morning as a cold front moves across West Central Texas.
PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING UNDER THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY. TROUGH EXTENDED INTO EASTERN MT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK BORDER. WY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE MORNING AND PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND TUE. WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE FEEL ANY PCPN WILL BE ORIENTED CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. RA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST IN THE AM WITH BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER THE EASTERN FA IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW ORGANIZES WITH SHARP SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE FA FROM NW-SE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TUESDAY WITH COOLING ON BACK SIDE OF BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL BUT DVL BASIN REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
1006 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
WARM SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS HELPING PULL IN DRIER AND WARMER AIR FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOLER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO WEAKER WINDS AND FEWER CLOUDS.
TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZIER THAN MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HANGS ON. THAT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS SEEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS COLD UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SRN SASK AND RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS.
2PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. TO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS THERMAL RIDGE WILL AHEAD OF A TUESDAY EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BUT POSSIBLE TROUGHING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD MAKE THE WIND DIRECTIONS MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE LOW AND UPPER 80S AS EXPECTED SO FAR. VALUES WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 90S AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL LOOK FOR A NEAR REPEAT TOMORROW BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1-2F DEGREES COOLER AS H925 AND H850 TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND MORE DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE PRIMARILY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
1248 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND PERIODIC SHOWERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN VERMONT STILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM THERMAL ADVECTION (40S TO AROUND 50).
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO A SW AND WEST DIRECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
South breezes and a good amount of afternoon sunshine (after some morning clouds), plus our position ahead of an approaching cold front, may allow temperatures to over achieve. That cold front will cross the region Tuesday evening.
SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY MOVING EAST THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MAINLY EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG SHOULD DISAPPEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN UNITED STATES IN VERY FAST ZONAL THAT STRETCHED OUT BACK INTO THE CNTRL PACIFIC. SHOULD PULL DECENT MOISTURE NWD INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL CREATE A MORE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL TURN A BIT QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24HR TAF PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AFTER 16/00Z.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 50s. Looks as though scattered precip chances tomorrow will be tied to the surface and 850 mb warm front in the morning, mostly across the west and north, and then along the cold front during the mid to late afternoon and early evening hours as the cap weakens due to increasing low level convergence forecast along the accelerating cold front. Due to the slower movement in the cold frontal passage and the cap holding on a bit longer than previously forecast, it appears the main time frame for the threat for scattered storms across the forecast area will be roughly 4pm until 10 pm.
1016 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH AND TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
Wind will be turning back around to the south-southeast ahead of this approaching trof by 00Z this evening. That being said, I can't in good conscience pull PoPs ahead of a cold front with plenty of boundary layer moisture in March.
911 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL KEEP DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 2PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. TO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS THERMAL RIDGE WILL AHEAD OF A TUESDAY EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
The system will force a Pacific cold front thru our area late tonight into early Tuesday. the lower Ark river valley and SE OK may actually get warmer than today. Ridging will nose up into the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. which will allow for downstream troughing and some colder air to push south over the Plains.
909 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.
A cold front will shift winds from the northwest to north after 12Z tomorrow. However, this warmer weather will take a hit Tuesday as a cold front moves into the area, w/fropa at KMAF ~ 14Z.
THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA THAN RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. TUESDAY MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH OPEN WAVE TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP ENERGY FOCUSED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE SOUNDING PROFILES KEEP DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS. COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WHICH IS MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN H5 TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD.
A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS NEVER FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL TREND MIN TEMPS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHTER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. 850 TEMPS COOL A LITTLE SO WILL TREND MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR TUES AFTN.
A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A WARM THERMAL RIDGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
Upper low elongating from srn IN into cntrl KY moving east away from the area.
Will also expire the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. A cold front will shift winds from the northwest to north after 12Z tomorrow. However, this warmer weather will take a hit Tuesday as a cold front moves into the area, w/fropa at KMAF ~ 14Z.
MID LEVEL TROUGH NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING AND DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA AREAS AS TUESDAY EVENING BEGINS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TRENTON TO NORTON AND ALMENA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD. TWO SEPARATE CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS FINALLY DROPPING OFF ONCE THE JETSTREAM ARCHES N OF THE REGION TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD LATE TUESDAY AND WILL PUSH THE UPPER JET NORTHWARD. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE N ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE AND MAINLY SWITCH WINDS TO THE SW TO W TO NW AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
WHEN ELEVATED SRLY WINDS BECOME THE LEAD STORY THANKS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN FL AND LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PLAINS. TMRW WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AND A BIT WARMER AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEN, A COUPLE OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOBBLING ELONGATED TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE FIRST OF 2 COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK.
A cold front will move through the area late Tuesday morning, resulting in northwest winds of 6 to 12 knots, with higher gusts. /issued 338 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016/ (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be over our area during the middle to late part of this week, with a broad upper trough over the northern and central U.
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD H500 TROUGH SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER THIS EVENING.
747 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO BRING A SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE L/M60S HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA ON TUE PROVIDING A DEEP WSW/W FLOW OVER THE AREA. A VERY WARM AND DRY DAY ONCE THE LOW GRUNGE BURNS OFF. RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE OF NOTE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION WITH THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK THE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FORECAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT AROUND THE NORTH BAY.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE THEN SHIFTS EAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE. HIGHS TUE WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
700 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY. TROUGH EXTENDED INTO EASTERN MT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK BORDER. WY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE MORNING AND PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND TUE. WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE FEEL ANY PCPN WILL BE ORIENTED CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. RA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST IN THE AM WITH BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER THE EASTERN FA IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW ORGANIZES WITH SHARP SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE FA FROM NW-SE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TUESDAY WITH COOLING ON BACK SIDE OF BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL BUT DVL BASIN REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
753 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH AND TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
High pressure was located to the east of the Bahamas.
This will drag a surface cold front through the area during the mid day hours.
STILL EXPECT A BORA EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES AS A COLD FRONT.
JUST SOME BRIEF UPPER RIDGING ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A NORTH CENTRAL GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW MOSTLY OVER FL.
/Issued 238 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016/ Strong gusty winds continued this afternoon but are expected to subside tonight as high pressure moves into the region. Strong gusty winds continued across the region today associated with cold front nearby and enhanced pressure gradient. Winds will drop off rather quickly tonight as gradient relaxes with incoming high pressure.
AN UPPER TROUGH PULLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUN.
828 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH AND TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. 12Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN KIND TO PRIOR SOLUTIONS W/WW ELONGATION OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS AS SPRTG JET STREAK HEADS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT. THIS LEAVES BEHIND SOME VESTIGE OF CYCLONIC FLW ALOFT AS MID LVL TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO FRI BFR REINVIGORATING INTO SAT AS WHATS LEFT SPINS OUT EWD ACRS THE OH VALLEY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MIDWEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.
AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPS WILL STEADILY DECREASE EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD H500 TROUGH SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE ALL ABOUT THE HIGH FIRE DANGER AGAIN.
A strong upper level disturbance will pass across western Kansas tonight and early Tuesday, along with a cold front.
859 PM PDT MON MAR 14 2016 CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH IN A DRIER AND WARMER WEEK. Northwest flow over the region aloft as high pressure begins to build into the region.
WITH THE UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AS WELL AS A CONTINUED SOURCE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES.
AND ENDED THUNDER CHANCES EARLY FOR THE NORTHERN RIDGES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE MID-WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
On Tuesday a cold front will swing through the area on the heels of tonight's upper wave, but with mainly west winds behind it, will lack a real push of cold air with temperatures still reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Behind Tuesday's system, broad upper-level troughing will gradually sag into much of the central U.
1132 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH AND TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAST ENOUGH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THAT THE LOW LAYER WILL STAY WELL MIXED.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower and middle 40s across southern counties where radiational cooling will be maximized. Farther north, lows will be mainly in the lower and middle 50s, with light southwest winds. A cold front will move through the area late Tuesday morning, resulting in northwest winds of 6 to 12 knots, with higher gusts. /issued 338 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016/ (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be over our area during the middle to late part of this week, with a broad upper trough over the northern and central U.
1055 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 A PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
814 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 A PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, A PRETTY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, AND EARLY MORNING TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S, BLV A REBOUND OF 25 TO 30 DEGS IS QUITE LIKELY. OUR UNSEASONABLY WARM UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD, OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR, THAT HAS REMAINED BOTTLED UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO FINALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MIDDLE TN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS EVENING. THE LOWER CEILING AT TRI SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING, CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT, WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE HI-LINE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN REACH OUR CENTRAL MONTANA COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
129 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. FRIES COLD FRONT WILL BE A QUICK MOVER. DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. COLD FRONT PASSES SWIFTLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS DUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NOT SEE MUCH RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
Guidance also wraps around enuf warm air around the low at low levels that suggests any precip will remain liquid rather than snow. morning as the upper trof progresses eastward, and may have cleared the CWA by 18z. Overnight Thursday into early Friday morning high pressure will settle into the MS Valley and this will produce rather cold morning low temperatures. A tranquil and seasonable cool day is on tap for Friday as high pressure retreats east.
MAINLY JUST DRY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
657 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT, ACROSS THE REGION, WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES STILL JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH LIGHT RAIN. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
246 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING.
WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
CLEARING AND COOLER BEHIND FRONT THEN HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND AND OVER WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON AND THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP ROADWAYS CLEAR. ASCENT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
Elsewhere, westerly gusts of 30-40 mph will be common across the region later this morning through the afternoon hours along and behind a cold front. Another cold front will move through the Northern Rockies late Thursday night through Friday night.
WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO 9 PM. WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND HEADLINE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S.
310 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 40S IF SNOW PACK LIMITS DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH INCREASING BL WINDS. I LEANED LOW TEMP FORECAST TOWARDS 2M GUIDANCE (WARMER BLENDS) AS MIXING MAY PREVENT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
243 AM PDT THU MAR 24 2016 After drier and warmer conditions through the week, winds will increase Friday with a slight cool down for the start of the weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy conditions Friday as a cold front pushes through the region.
345 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHERN IOWA AS SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGE. UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF GULF OF ALASKA INTO JUNEAU AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING QUICKLY EAST THIS MORNING. UNDER THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND IN THE CLEARING SECTOR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT WITH COOLER MID 20S OVER SNOW FIELD.