Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
237 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 The upper level high located over the southern United States will continue to control the weather in our forecast area. 12Z observed upper air analysis shows the center of high pressure located over KS and MO with little variation expected in the position and strength tonight and tomorrow.
1252 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday) The morning upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depict an inverted upper trough that has moved inland across S TX and extends NE into NE TX/SW AR, around the Ern periphery of the upper ridge which remains situated from the TX/OK Panhandles NE through KS into Wrn IA/Nrn MO. This trough has enhanced the SSErly low level flow, with 15-20kts indicated from SE TX into S LA. This development is along the higher axis of PW's near 2", with the higher theta-e air extending farther N across much of E TX into N LA and Srn AR.
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 High pressure off the Atlantic Coast ridges westward over Ohio through the weekend.
Very little will change anticipated for tomorrow under the influence of the upper ridge. Temperatures by tomorrow afternoon should be a couple of degrees cooler but dewpoints will be a couple of degrees higher so we'll keep heat advisory in place for central and northern OK where heat index values will likely exceed 105 criteria.
148 PM MDT Sat Aug 6 2022 Southwest flow aloft is persisting across the northern Plains, ahead of a low amplitude trough axis crossing the northern Rockies. A series of waves associated with the entrance region of a jet streak north of the CWA will combine with several other waves rounding the base of the trough to bring good forcing to the CWA tonight. At the surface, high pressure to the north is bringing cool, northeast flow over western SD and southeast flow over northeast WY.
(This evening through Sunday) An expansive east-west ridge aloft is centered north of our area today. With a slightly weakened 850mb thermal ridge and a diurnal cumulus field expected, highs on Sunday should be mostly limited to the mid to upper 90s.
153 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 Aviation --Warm and humid weekend to start-- Dry air aloft with high pressure over the region will allow for warm advection today.
127 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues to build into the southeastern CONUS, with PWATS slowly climb back near 2 inches by late this afternoon and remaining near 2 inches through Sunday. With plenty of sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures remain on track to climb into the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast.
257 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 Tonight through Tomorrow: Upper ridging continues tonight and broad subsidence should result in diminishing diurnal convection this evening and only partly cloudy to mostly clear skies tonight. Scattered showers and storms are likely mostly in eastern and southern Mississippi where some seabreeze influence as well as increasing distance from an upper ridge axis will likely serve to allow for the best convective coverage.
Current regional temperature trends supporting afternoon high temperatures at least a couple of degrees warmer than previously advertised, and updated suite of forecast products to reflect this.
Showers linger east of Glenns Ferry in Idaho this morning as the cold front continues its eastward progress. Moisture moving north from Nevada will be enough to generate a showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the border, with the best coverage anticipated across southern Twin Falls county, and into the lower elevations of southern Owyhee county.
(Tonight) Isolated to scattered convection continues to develop underneath a weakening upper level ridge centered over northeastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia. Clearing late this evening and overnight should allow temperatures to drop into the lower 70s.
Surface analysis late this morning places a cold front over portions of the Northern Plains and into the Rockies. Meanwhile, a a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Mid- Atlantic States. As of 10 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower to middle 80s across most locations. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate the best potential for any diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along the Tennessee River where cooler mid-level temperatures reside as indicated by 12Z upper air data. Midlevel temps will be cooler over the TN River valley, in the vicinity of the weak shear axis. Rain chances will edge up on Sunday, as the weak shear axis and cooler 700mb temps retrograde westward.
Due to surface ridging into the southern Appalachians, winds will be light and variable except near storms.
1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 Hot and dry weather conditions will persist across the region again today as the mid/upper ridge builds back across the area bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and a continuation of much above normal temperatures. Triple digit heat is likely across the forecast area with the highest temperatures topping out around 106.
This activity should be mostly east of the forecast area by midnight and as the U/L trough moves away, high pressure looks to take control of the weather once again.
Significant relief from the heat and humidity is not likely to occur until later in the week, when a stronger cold front finally approaches the Commonwealth. We have some isolated mentions of showers and thunderstorms near some of the higher terrain, but that's about it. Sunday will be very warm and sticky, with afternoon highs ranging from the low-mid 80s over the higher terrain, to the lower 90s in the Susquehanna Valley.
353 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to roll through the region on the cold front early this morning. The cold front will slide south through mid morning. An upper trough that will move in on Sunday will reinforce the cooler air and the shower activity.
1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 (Today and tonight) The 850 mb thermal ridge should be a little weaker today (850 mb temperatures about 3 degrees less than yesterday), so it shouldn't be quite as hot (highs today in the mid to upper 90s in the I-10 corridor and Hill Country, and upper 90s to around 102 in the Concho Valley/Heartland/Big Country.
The "cooling" trend is a result of the center of the ridge of high pressure translating northward toward the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley and associated falling heights over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. The cooler temperatures will be more evident during the day, as overnight lows still look to remain in the lower to middle 70s for most, with 60s across the higher terrain. Rain chances, unfortunately, remain on the low side across the region. This afternoon, a few diurnally driven storms will be possible, mainly across the higher terrain south of I-10, and particularly across the Big Bend.
A weak mid level shear zone is located over the Ohio Valley, within a broad ridge over the central and eastern U. Another hot and humid day is on tap for Sunday with highs reaching the low 90s.
211 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 A weak upper trof will cause an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
341 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 A cold front is visible on radar imagery this afternoon extending from roughly southwestern Dawson county into northeastern Nance county. expect scattered thunderstorms to continue across much of the area Sunday as cooler air working in aloft will help to keep the atmosphere relatively unstable behind the cold front. This will result in a cooler Sunday for much of south central Nebraska.
217 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 High pressure is going to dominate the area today into tomorrow night with above normal temperatures. Based on GOES water vapor imagery this trough is currently over the Pacific Northwest. A very weak cold front is progged to move south into the area as this trough crosses into the northern plains.
Lows will also drop into the upper 40s for the traditional cooler spots, with the low 50s most everywhere else. High pressure presently centered over south central Saskatchewan will gradually pass to the southeast, through the forecast area, through the day Sunday. Initially to start the period, the area sits under westerly to northwesterly flow aloft as a west CONUS ridge begins to develop. The ridge will amplify through the first half of the week as it slides eastward.
In the Valley, temperatures are closer to yesterday, about 3-6 degrees warmer. NorCal remains between a broad upper-level ridge to our east and an upper-level low to our west off the coast.
/Issued 217 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022/ High pressure is going to dominate the area today into tomorrow night with above normal temperatures. Based on GOES water vapor imagery this trough is currently over the Pacific Northwest. A very weak cold front is progged to move south into the area as this trough crosses into the northern plains.
1039 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 A weak upper trof will cause an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
/DL/ Tonight through Tomorrow: Upper ridging continues tonight and broad subsidence should result in diminishing diurnal convection this evening and only partly cloudy to mostly clear skies tonight. Scattered showers and storms are likely mostly in eastern and southern Mississippi where some seabreeze influence as well as increasing distance from an upper ridge axis will likely serve to allow for the best convective coverage.
647 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 (Tonight) Isolated to scattered convection continues to develop underneath a weakening upper level ridge centered over northeastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia. Clearing late this evening and overnight should allow temperatures to drop into the lower 70s.
A deep marine layer will keep clouds along the coast with slightly cooler than average temperatures within inland valleys.
751 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 High pressure off the Atlantic Coast ridges westward over Ohio through the weekend.
Along the front, storms have been struggling to sustain themselves in the lower-sheared environment.
Due to surface ridging into the southern Appalachians, winds will be light and variable except near thunderstorms. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 90 72 87 72 / 30 60 30 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 89 71 88 71 / 40 60 30 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 71 87 71 / 40 70 20 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 86 68 85 68 / 40 60 20 80 20.
/DL/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tomorrow: Upper ridging continues tonight and broad subsidence should result in diminishing diurnal convection this evening and only partly cloudy to mostly clear skies tonight. Scattered showers and storms are likely mostly in eastern and southern Mississippi where some seabreeze influence as well as increasing distance from an upper ridge axis will likely serve to allow for the best convective coverage.
641 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
Easterly winds 10-15 kts as the high pressure ridge axis remains north of the local Atlantic waters.
A cold front is visible on radar imagery this afternoon extending from roughly southwestern Dawson county into northeastern Nance county. expect scattered thunderstorms to continue across much of the area Sunday as cooler air working in aloft will help to keep the atmosphere relatively unstable behind the cold front. This will result in a cooler Sunday for much of south central Nebraska.
Most places north of the Missouri River will see very little precipitation Next, attention turns to a new upper ridge pattern set to build across the western U.
The drier air is due to a relatively cool upper trough passing by to our north.
537 PM MDT Sat Aug 6 2022 Southwest flow aloft is persisting across the northern Plains, ahead of a low amplitude trough axis crossing the northern Rockies. A series of waves associated with the entrance region of a jet streak north of the CWA will combine with several other waves rounding the base of the trough to bring good forcing to the CWA tonight. At the surface, high pressure to the north is bringing cool, northeast flow over western SD and southeast flow over northeast WY.
/issued 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022/ The upper level high located over the southern United States will continue to control the weather in our forecast area. 12Z observed upper air analysis shows the center of high pressure located over KS and MO with little variation expected in the position and strength tonight and tomorrow.
Subtropical ridge remains anchored well to our north across the western Atlantic with the ridge axis drifting southwest across the Carolinas and into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the strength of the ridge is such that moderate to fresh breezes have been ongoing throughout the afternoon and into this evening. A mid level inverted trough continues to slowly meander westward towards our area and is currently centered acorss the northwest Bahamas. This inverted trough will begin entering our easternmost waters late overnight and will aid in some confluence and allow for a greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms. Therefore, will maintain the high chance PoPs (50 percent) for the overnight.
630 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022 (This evening through Sunday) An expansive east-west ridge aloft is centered north of our area today. With a slightly weakened 850mb thermal ridge and a diurnal cumulus field expected, highs on Sunday should be mostly limited to the mid to upper 90s.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ As the upper ridge axis constricts across the Midwest and Central Plains, a few subtle easterly waves traversing its southern flank have aided in diurnally driven convection again this afternoon, particularly across Central and East Texas. Otherwise, the northward retreat of the ridge axis and increased cloud cover have combined to hold today's temperatures noticeably lower than in recent days/weeks.
958 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 High pressure off the Atlantic Coast ridges westward over Ohio through the weekend.
743 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 A weak upper trof will cause an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
Sunrise temperatures should be in the low 70s to middle 80s. Tomorrow should be a repeat of today featuring isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms most numerous across west Tennessee and north Mississippi and highs in the low to middle 90s.
Across the western two-thirds of our cwa we have seen drying thru the night, along with deepening NW winds (see BLX VAD winds), but should note the upper trof w/ notable circulation is lagging in central MT. Eastern showers should end by 18z as the trof finally departs. Once we get past the morning, building upper level ridge will signal a return to the heat and dryness we typically see in August.
One of the limiting factors as this trough moves through this morning will be that the best instability is to the north, Another is the fairly dry air once you move inland.
Otherwise, looking ahead towards the end of this cycle and perhaps the next issuance, we could see a wind shift coming with the prefrontal trough expect tonight after/around sunset. /Issued 217 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022/ High pressure is going to dominate the area today into tomorrow night with above normal temperatures. Based on GOES water vapor imagery this trough is currently over the Pacific Northwest. A very weak cold front is progged to move south into the area as this trough crosses into the northern plains.
Expect to see similar conditions across the area today as yesterday, perhaps just a degree or two cooler. As the upper trough moves east it will drag a surface cold front south toward the area Sunday night.
This front is expected to drift north this morning, as a low pressure system pushes into western Kansas and southern Nebraska. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will allow heat indices to reach 100 to 105 by this afternoon.
Short term models show an upper level low meandering over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley to the west and a Bermuda high to the east.
156 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure off the Atlantic Coast ridges westward over Ohio through the day.
- A cold front will move into the area this evening and overnight and bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery show the upper high pretty much over the area as evidenced by the westward moving cirrus in our south and eastward moving storms and clouds across NE and IA. Models continue to show the cold front arriving after peak heating and as a result, we should see similar hot and humid conditions today as we did yesterday. Dewpoints will again be oppressive with peak heating dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This evening and tonight, the cold front will begin to move into the area with scattered showers and storms along it as it moves south.
Cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will keep temperatures along and north of I-72 a few degrees cooler than they were yesterday.
With cooler temperatures and a lack of significant instability, shear, or other storm parameters, thunderstorm activity should be largely sparse across the area with a few cells perhaps capable of some lightning and brief gusts. Strong ridging will build into the upper plains after this system departs to the east, slowly moving eastwards throughout the week keeping us dry and a bit warmer than normal for mid August.
401 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A weak upper trof will cause an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
330 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Weather during the short term will continue to be influenced by a weak shear axis within a broad upper level ridge spanning from the central to eastern U. Similar to yesterday, this weakness in the ridge may help to focus slightly better coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of southwest Indiana and western Kentucky today.
342 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure will extend across the region into the week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of this week. At the sfc, a weak inverted trough will remain over the coastal waters early this morning, expected to reach the coast during the mid to late morning hours. Given high freezing levels, weak shear, and limited DCAPE, these storms are not expected to produce severe weather. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. High pressure will generally prevail aloft, with the region situated under the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. High pressure will also be the dominant feature at the surface. High pressure will be the dominant feature to start the period both aloft and at the surface.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are being detected west of the Lower Keys, while only isolated weak showers are being detected to the east.
The Bay Area and Central Coast are sandwiched in the southwesterly flow between a 570dm upper closed low just off of Cape Mendocino to the northwest and 592dm high pressure system originating from the Four Corners that has backbuild into interior California. This upper low has been a persistent feature over the last week shifting back and forth within 300 to 900 miles west of Cape Mendocino, slowly wobbling east then west and now back east again since the onset of this week. This upper low will continue to very casually jog eastward towards Cape Mendocino and finally push ashore into California through over the next 48 to 72 hours.
At the surface, high pressure sits over ND. Precipitation will diminish and skies will clear from west to east as the trough crosses the region today. The high temperature forecast is tricky, and will depend on how quickly the clouds/precip exit and warm air moves in from the west. An upper ridge will build over the western and central CONUS this week, resulting in another period of hot, dry weather.
1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (This evening through Sunday) An expansive east-west ridge aloft is centered north of our area today. With a slightly weakened 850mb thermal ridge and a diurnal cumulus field expected, highs on Sunday should be mostly limited to the mid to upper 90s.
Initial round of activity last afternoon and evening was mainly focused along/north of a quasi-stationary cold front and low level CAPE axis. The atmosphere remains juiced in this area with surface Td in the low 70s beneath a plume of Pacific monsoonal moisture cresting the top of an upper ridge. Convection percolates further south into central Iowa as toward the morning hours, but should fade away and move east as the low level jet begins to taper off.
315 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 06z data has weak low pressure in central Wisconsin. A stationary front ran southwest from the low into southern Nebraska. A flash flood watch has been issued for the highway 20 corridor through Sunday night.
06z data has weak low pressure in central Wisconsin. A stationary front ran southwest from the low into southern Nebraska. A flash flood watch has been issued for the highway 20 corridor through Sunday night.
High pressure will also start to form over the Western Slope which will also aid in turning winds more northerly. CAM guidance, both the NAMNEST and HRRR, are a bit more aggressive with some weak convection firing over most of the higher terrain today.
A combination of hot afternoon temperatures, upslope along the eastern edge of the Caprock, and an inverted trough rotating around the southern edge of an upper high to our north will promote the formation of isolated to maybe widely scattered thunderstorms over the area, with the best chance being over the southern half of the South Plains and Rolling Plains.
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Persistent high pressure centered near Bermuda will extend into the Southeast US through the beginning of the week. A cold front should move across the state in the middle of the week. This should keep most pops across western counties with the Piedmont trough and across the south with a sea breeze. Think that temperatures will come down a degree or two from yesterday's values, although most locations should still reach the lower 90s.
340 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be another day of cooler temperatures along with chances for showers.
255 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 The trough that has been drawing moisture northward the past couple days is now directly north of western Wyoming, and will continue to sweep east today. The only remaining activity may be along the highest elevations of the Bighorn range and atop Casper Mountain, but these showers will be minimal and brief without added lift from the departing trough.
1032 PM MDT Sat Aug 6 2022 Southwest flow aloft is persisting across the northern Plains, ahead of a low amplitude trough axis crossing the northern Rockies. A series of waves associated with the entrance region of a jet streak north of the CWA will combine with several other waves rounding the base of the trough to bring good forcing to the CWA tonight. At the surface, high pressure to the north is bringing cool, northeast flow over western SD and southeast flow over northeast WY.
240 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Persistent high pressure centered near Bermuda will extend into the Southeast US through the beginning of the week. A cold front should move across the state in the middle of the week. This should keep most pops across western counties with the Piedmont trough and across the south with a sea breeze. Think that temperatures will come down a degree or two from yesterday's values, although most locations should still reach the lower 90s.