Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The higher end of this range will be for areas generally along and especially west of I-135. Did go ahead and extend the high wind warning a row of counties east from what we previously had. Weak upper ridging will slide over the Rockies for the end of the work week which will bring some weak return flow and warming temps. What does look likely however, is that we will see some cooler temps for the weekend. The higher end of this range will be for areas generally along and west of I-135. RH values will be higher than yesterday as they range from 25% to 35%, with the lower values west of I-135.
350 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 The cold front has pushed off the coast early this morning, currently located just north of Buoy 42019, with the KHGX radar showing a thin band of showers delineating the front. Expect showers and thunderstorms to clear the coast sometime between 10 AM and noon as a mid-level trough axis associated with a closed low over Iowa swings across the state.
forecast area remains in between strong low pressure over Iowa and broad upper ridging from the west coast through the southwest US. High temperatures will be a little cooler with readings in the low 40s north to the upper 40s far south. Low temperatures should range from the low to mid teens across far eastern Colorado with mid to upper teens elsewhere.
Have lowered temperatures around 5 degrees in this area as a result do not think there will be much chance for any location to have above freezing lows tonight. The High Wind Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire Tri-State region and the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the entire Tri-State region. Winds will abruptly strengthen by ~15Z Tue (a few hours after sunrise) as mixing resumes amidst strong low/mid-level NW flow on the western periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the Northern Plains as it meanders southeast into IA/IL during the day.
The cold front will move through the region between now and 15z.
Showers along a cold front will be crossing the area this morning, with a tenth to quarter inch of rain expected for most spots. Tonight, a low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley region, with the upper trough and surface cold front moving through our area after midnight. A rapidly falling freezing level will result in a change to snow through the night, with some light accumulations around 1 inch possible in the mountains, mainly above 3000 ft.
A warm front remains on the doorstep of the region along the Cumberland Plateau of Middle Tennessee and far NE Alabama and NW Georgia. We start Tuesday with the cold front just to the east of the area. The airmass behind this front is rather dry and with good mixing and clear skies tomorrow think that temps may actually end up warmer Tuesday than today. Highs in the low to mid 60s are possible for much of the area. The upper level system that was situated over the northern US begins to drop S/SE through the day Tuesday and will push a secondary cold front into the area late Tuesday evening.
The low pressure system that brought us all the snow is across far northwestern IA this morning, and will continue to exit across Iowa this morning. An area of high pressure sinks across western South Dakota. Low level moisture with borderline thermal profiles will mean that we can't completely rule out temporary freezing drizzle. At the start of the period, got some mid/upper level ridging happening over the western CONUS, creating the start of a long period of northwest flow aloft over this region.
/ISSUED 718 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ With the cold front south of San Antonio and storm potential decreasing due to the lack of daytime heating, lowered PoPs for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. Also edited T and Td grids to account for the position of the cold front. Upper air analysis from this morning showed a mid level trough across the central US with zonal westerly flow across south central Texas. At 2 pm this afternoon, the surface cold front was essentially along an Austin to Boerne to Uvalde line, and moving southeast. High pressure and dry air will filter in to the region in wake of the passing cold front, with northerly winds persisting.
316 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 The upper low currently centered over NW Iowa will make its way southeastward today centering over central Illinois by this evening. A strong cold pocket aloft characterized by -30 C 500 mb temps and -8 C 850 mb temps will accompany the upper low. Preceding the low, dry 0. 25 inch precipitable water values and dewpoints as low as the mid 20s are poised south of the low to wrap into central IL. The combination of cold temperatures aloft and relatively dry boundary layer will allow snow to reach the ground at slightly warmer temperatures than usual due to evaporational cooling effects, so have included a mix of rain and snow in the forecast with temperatures as high as the upper 30s this afternoon and tonight.
An area of low pressure moving across the Midwest later today will create gusty west winds across our northwest counties this afternoon, but currently appears winds will remain below our advisory criteria with the stronger winds off to our west and north.
As this system rolls east and morphs into long wave troffiness acrs the GRT Lks and into the east coast, northwesterly flow aloft and resultant cool regime to extend acrs the region into the late week. As mentioned above, the closed off upper low will look to gyrate southeastward acrs the southern CWA through the afternoon, and exit acrs southern IL by this evening. Again, there could be some localized higher amounts in bands, even south of I80 if the cooler profiles win out even during the afternoon. The vertically stacked upper low will exit the region tonight.
A brief period of drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible.
328 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 Cold front at 3 am appeared to be near a McComb to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Deep upper low was over Iowa at that time. Beyond today, high pressure currently over the Rockies will move slowly eastward.
1143 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 VFR conditions have returned to the region late this evening in wake of the cold frontal passage, which extends from just S of BPT, to LCH, to just N of OPL, to near HEZ as of 05Z.
/issued 920 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ A cold front has just moved through Memphis and will continue moving east during the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be a little warmer, in the low to middle 60s.
Dry air and light winds across the region will also contribute to many areas in Southeast New Mexico, Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin seeing near or below freezing temperatures by sunrise. Another cold front will sink south through the region today, reinforcing the cooler the cooler air and high temperatures will remain in the 60s most locations.
1012 PM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 Downgraded the High Wind Warning that was in effect over parts of western South Dakota to a Wind Advisory. 20z surface analysis had low over southwest MN with inverted trough into western ND. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SD. Light upslope snow continues over the higher terrain of the Black Hills. Tonight/Tuesday, upper low will spin into western IA by 12z and then take off to the east. A couple of weak waves may product some wind shifts, but general trend will be warmer and drier.
157 AM MST Tue Mar 6 2018 Upper level analysis shows closed low over northwestern IA/southwestern MN. A broad trough stretches over the northern plains, and a ridge is building over the west coast. Upper low will swing southeast over IL today, as the upper ridge to the west shifts eastward. As the upper ridge works its way into the central states, quiet weather and a warming trend are expected through the end of the week.
1140 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 Showers have moved out of the area this evening as the cold front has now pushed into eastern Illinois. Clouds have also moved out of the area behind the cold front. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 30s tonight. Clouds will drop southeastward into our area on Tuesday as an upper level trough drops southeastward through the region. As the freezing level lowers the rain showers may change over to snow showers or at least a few flurries Tuesday night.
Lastly, upper trof passage related pops tonight will create an either/or rain/snow shower change-over due to cooling critical blayer temps.
531 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Strong cold air advection continues to take hold this morning as Arctic air drops through the Northern Plains associated with broad upper-level trough pushing through the Upper Midwest.
521 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Non-diurnal falling temperatures will be the main weather story for today as a secondary cold front pushes through the region.
Dry forecast expected with highs from the lower 70s along the Volusia coast to the mid 70s across the interior and central/srn coastal areas. High pressure ridge axis will remain north of the waters today and eventually settle southward across the area into tonight.
The threat of freezing drizzle is quite small with light southeasterly low level flow and sufficient dewpoint depressions. The plains should gradually scour out the low level moisture, with partial clearing this afternoon mainly along the Front Range. There's still some shallow moisture trapped in the high country through tonight, so will keep some low PoPs/very light snow overnight. Strong winds gusting to over 60 mph on the high mountain ridges will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow where sufficient accumulations occur. A blocking ridge over the Bering Sea and a deep upper low entrenched over Hudson's Bay will hold their positions for the next several days, leaving Colorado under persistent northwesterly flow aloft.
The exception could be in the northeast plains/highlands between 12-16Z where a surface cold front could initiate low stratus cloud development.
A few sprinkles of rain have fallen here at the office with the progression of a warm front moving through northern California and southern Oregon this morning. After the warm front this morning, another frontal system will move across the Pacific northwest this afternoon and evening. Have kept temperatures very similar to what was inherited, but have dried out humidities a few percentage points; especially for ridge tops in the area.
Overnight, increasing clouds is expected with lower cigs to MVFR and vsbys falling to MVFR/IFR ahead of a cold frontal passage. A broad upper trough will brush by the area to the north today, pulling subtropical mid-level moisture into the area. The area of high pressure at the surface will be situated to the east of the area, allowing for weak southerly flow across the area and a modest moistening of the boundary layer. This will yield increasing cloud cover through the day and eventually shower chances this evening, as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
Cold front slated to slip southeast through the forecast area today. Cold Canadian high pressure will then press southeast into the region tonight/Friday time frame.
Early this morning, virga was noted on radar imagery over central IN and stretching back into Missouri and Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is still progged to move through our region by late afternoon/evening. Would like to see more support from the high-res guidance before increasing forecast snowfall amounts much above 1".
648 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 For the 01/12Z TAF period, low clouds and patchy fog continue to spread northward across much of the region this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Could see showers developing around midday mainly across southwest Arkansas as instability increases ahead of low to mid-level trough deepening in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building south behind the front will allow for an enhanced pressure gradient with north winds increasing to around 15 to 20 mph from mid to late afternoon through the evening. High pressure to bring a reinforcement of cooler air with overnight lows tonight ranging from the 30s to lower 40s across the region.
Mild and dry conditions are expected across the region during the next 7 days as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Little change in the forecast package as models continue to agree on an upper ridge over the Pacific. Northwest California will generally reside beneath northwest flow aloft along the east side of the ridge. In addition, large- scale subsidence forced by the ridge combined with a residually humid boundary layer will aid in patchy valley fog.
538 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Today & Tonight: Cold front that crossed KS yesterday afternoon & evening ventured across most of OK during the night. STRONG & deep, mid-upper flow continues to dominate roughly the northern half of North America in wake of sharpening & positively tilted trof extending from Southern Hudson Bay to the Upper MS Valley. The strong & deep upper regime will drive Canadian High pressure SE across KS tonight & with clearing skies & diminishing winds, lows in the teens remain certain areawide. Fri-Sat Night: As the weakening Canadian-originated high crosses the Lower MS Valley a rapid warmup is still scheduled to commence on Fri with highs in the 40s with Sat's highs certain to reach 50 to 55 in most areas.
/issued 352 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018/ Atlantic high pressure continues to exert its influence over South Florida this morning, promoting a light northeasterly to easterly flow along the coast.
Today and Friday, a shallow upper level trough over the northern plains will gradually dig into the northeastern CONUS. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure northeast of Florida is setting up weak east to southeast flow across the forecast area today. After a slightly cool start to the morning, the light winds and mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm up a few degrees from what was seen yesterday, with highs topping out in the low to mid 70s. As the upper level trough progresses east, a surface cold front will push into the southeastern states tonight, and will reach the Florida Peninsula by Friday afternoon. Otherwise, high temperatures will be slightly cooler over the Nature Coast Friday afternoon, with seasonably warm temperatures continuing farther south through the afternoon.
649 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Clouds spilling into the region today ahead of a cold front. A cold front is still progged to move through the region late this evening into early Friday morning accompanied by isolated to scattered showers, the majority of which should be over by sunrise Friday. With CAA filtering in behind the front, Friday is shaping up to be a rather nice day although afternoon highs will be running about 15 degrees cooler than we'll see this afternoon.
512 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Cold front was approaching the Illinois/Iowa border as of 2 am, with temperatures behind it quickly dropping into the teens.
The focus of the short term period is on today's cold front passage, specifically the wind and resultant fire weather impacts it may cause.
Currently, air temperatures in Keys island communities range from near 70F in the upper Keys where a moderate breeze is now blowing in off the Gulf Stream, to the mid 60s in the lower Keys where light northeast breezes are maintaining a trajectory off the cooled Gulf-side flats. A progressive, weakly amplified, NW flow regime persists across much of the central and eastern continental United States, which has allowed continental-polar anticyclones to migrate quickly southeastward, and thence, eastward, from the Canadian Prairies to the Deep South, and onward over the subtropical western North Atlantic.
Gusty north winds will develop this morning behind cold front currently located near a MLC/XNA line. /Issued 359 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018/ A cold front was positioned from Northern Texas through South Central and East Central Oklahoma and across Northwest Arkansas and Southern Missouri early this morning. the cold front will continue to slide southward. this could allow for a few areas of light drizzle/light rain to develop within the higher terrain locations. Wind chill values early Friday morning could get down to around 10 degrees to the lower 20s from north to south.
Not expecting much of a temperature rebound today in spite of mainly sunny skies with afternoon temperatures struggling to get out of the single digits into the lower teens.
A cold front will move through the terminals throughout the day brining a shift in the winds. Another Cold Front. Another dry cold front will move south across West Central Texas today.
Most valley locations will warm well above freezing by Friday afternoon, with rain/snow mix present thereafter.
501 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Initial cold front had pushed through much of the area with a secondary front near the Missouri / Iowa line as of 2 AM. the secondary cold front will continue to advance south into the area. Temperatures will still be on the cool side with highs from the mid to upper 30s and lows Friday night from the low to upper 20s.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across North Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the Bahamas today.
441 AM MST Thu Feb 1 2018 Upper level analysis has large broad trof across the northern CONUS with ridging along the West Coast. At the surface, arctic high pressure has settled across the Northern Plains. After a chilly day today, boundary will shift back northeast with slightly warmer air moving in for Friday.
This will help support a cold front drop through our CWA late this afternoon and evening. Moisture will slowly increase today with one inch PWATs trying to pool along and just ahead of the cold front. The bulk of the rainfall today will likely occur as a band along and behind the cold front. The cold front is expected to move into our northwest most zones by late afternoon allowing much of the area to reach peak heating. Despite the increase in cloud cover and chance of showers, warmer than normal temperatures are expected, ranging from the lower 60s in the northwest to the lower 70s south. The cold front is expected to push southeast of our southeast most zones close to midnight. Cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA resulting in morning lows around freezing in our northern zones.
450 AM MST Thu Feb 1 2018 Updated forecast to allow the High Wind Warning to expire along the I-80 corridor from Elk Mountain to just west of Cheyenne. Winds have continued to subside this evening as a surface cold front has pushed south along the Laramie Range. Snow will taper off Thursday morning but some snow showers still continuing over the higher mtns through Thursday aided by orographics. Cold front slipping slowly westward late this afternoon and just passed Cheyenne with a temp drop from the upper 40s to near 30.
A cold front is still progged to move through the region late this evening into early Friday morning accompanied by isolated to scattered showers, the majority of which should be over by sunrise Friday. With CAA filtering in behind the front, Friday is shaping up to be a rather nice day although afternoon highs will be running about 15 degrees cooler than we'll see this afternoon.
453 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 The strong Arctic cold front has raced southeast of the area early this morning with gusty northwest winds and falling temps behind it. Skies will clear this evening as high pressure approaches from the west. Some model guidance tries to break out some light warm advection snow by afternoon but initially much of the lift will go into saturating very dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.
957 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 A cold front will continue to press southeastward from the Ohio and Missouri Valleys this morning and will extend roughly from western NC southwestward into northern LA by this evening. A broad upper trough will brush by the area to the north today, pulling subtropical mid-level moisture into the area. The area of high pressure at the surface will be situated to the east of the area, allowing for weak southerly flow across the area and a modest moistening of the boundary layer. This will yield increasing cloud cover through the day and eventually shower chances this evening, as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
expect deteriorating conditions early in the TAF period as a cold front approaches the region. A cold front will move through this evening and temperatures will drop. This will reduce visibilty and with the low clouds continuing across the area.
447 AM MST Thu Feb 1 2018 Upper level analysis has large broad trof across the northern CONUS with ridging along the West Coast. At the surface, arctic high pressure has settled across the Northern Plains. After a chilly day today, boundary will shift back northeast with slightly warmer air moving in for Friday.
Upper level high pressure ridge slowly building over the eastern Pacific and west coast. IR Satellite imagery showing high and mid level cloud cover spilling over the ridge and in to Norcal this morning. This cloud cover is keeping morning temperatures several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and keeping morning valley fog at a minimum.
523 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 VFR will continue as dry north-northeast low level flow follows the weak cold front that passed southward earlier in the night. /issued 326 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018/ Broad troughing over the central/eastern portions of the CONUS combined with an upper level ridge to our west will keep the FA under northwest flow for the entire forecast period.
Strong southwesterly winds this morning is pulling warmer air into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 29 41 22 / 70 70 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 23 35 16 / 80 80 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 22 35 16 / 80 80 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 22 31 13 / 80 90 10 0 TN.
913 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 Ridge over the region will weaken and shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front today. Highs today will be 5 to more than 10 degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a cold front.
608 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 A weak storm system will bring warmer temperatures and scattered light rain and snow showers to NY and PA through this evening. Given the weak forcing observed in the mesoscale models, we are discounting the high QPF output. After the cold front passes Thursday evening, a polar blast out of Canada will reignite snow showers and activate the lakes. Friday night, high pressure over the mid Atlantic region will cause the low level flow to back.
High pressure will move to the east resulting in southerly flow and moisture return to the region tonight and Thursday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase on Thursday with the highest probabilities during the afternoon across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. At that time the closest front will be a cold front well to the north and northwest stretching from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains.
Synopsis: The main upper low spinning over Alberta is sending a weak weather disturbance across the forecast area that is pushing into far eastern Montana late this afternoon and early evening with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from Scobey south through Crow Rock on our south at 250 pm. Along with the trough and cold frontal passage Thursday expected strong and gusty NW winds producing another Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake from late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Temperatures will also dip about 10 degrees Thursday with the trof and cold frontal passage.
104 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move east today. Southerly winds will increase resulting in breezy and warmer conditions. Thunderstorm chances will be increasing into Thursday night ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Dry and breezy to windy conditions will continue into this evening as low pressure moves through the Great Basin.
448 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight. High pressure departing the Eastern Seaboard will allow for southwest flow, with a warm advection pattern continuing.