Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Model RH fields indicate some cirrus will spread into the western half of the forecast area toward dawn ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Otherwise, expect filtered sunshine, as warm advection aloft ahead of approaching trough spreads cirrus over the region. The associated cold front is progged to push into the northwest mountains toward evening, bringing a chance of showers up there. Model 850mb temps support highs from the mid 60s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid 70s over parts of the Lower Susq Valley.
733 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A period of rain showers is expected this evening into the overnight as another cold front tracks across the area. Cooler weather will settle in for Saturday with high temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s. An upper level trough continues to strengthen today as a strong upper level jet streak (120+ knots) sampled by Glasgow, MT morning RAOB continues to dig through the base of this trough. Deep layer subsidence will build in Saturday with mainly sunny skies and cooler highs from28 the mid 60s northeast to low 70s far southwest.
A weak cold front is just starting to enter the area across western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties. A few upper 40s seem likely within the higher terrain of NW AR and for a few isolated locations across NE OK. A weak cold front, currently stretching from the OK panhandle into eastern KS, will drop into the forecast area by Saturday. MOS/NBM guidance temps are a bit cooler than previously forecast for highs, although still expect readings to be several degrees above normal.
Sharp forcing with a front/upper trough is quickly pushing east across WI this afternoon. More cloud cover will keep highs over WI down more in the lower 60s.
511 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A cold front passage on Saturday will bring a slight chance of a few light rain showers. Temps will fall into the 40s to around 50 for overnight lows as high pressure continues to suppress rain chance and clouds. A cold front and its supporting mid/upper-level trough will approach the forecast area during the latter half of Saturday.
The clear skies and calm winds will continue the radiational cooling this evening and overnight, reaching the lower/mid 50s over Central Louisiana, mid to upper 50s elsewhere along and north of I-10, and lower to mid 60s along the coastal parishes/counties. A tad warmer than this morning, but we will gladly take this fall weather. Previous taf discussion mentioned the possibility of patchy fog in the early morning near AEX, but with current guidance being little warmer than the previous run, VIS will be kept at VFR for now.
The storms west of Tucson from the morning hours have broken up, while strong thunderstorms are noted closer to the low in Southern California, northern Baja and far southwest Arizona. At that point an upper level diffluent flow over SE AZ and an impulse rotating up on the eastern flank of the low should bring an interesting environment for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
949 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Approaching cold front still on track to bring increasing cloud cover and chances for light rain showers Saturday. High pressure just off to our south continues to slowly shift east, with sunny skies and light winds out of the southwest. Temperatures are maxing out in the low to mid 70s. An upper level trough and weak cold front approach from the northwest overnight.
/Issued 243 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021/ High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the short term.
Pressure ridge centered over the western Carolinas.
Current radar mosaic and satellite imagery across central Indiana are quiet with high pressure in place. Meanwhile, temperatures have already climbed into the low to mid 70s, and western counties will likely top off in the upper 70s later today with the southwest surface flow and ample sunshine. The pattern will, however, shift early tonight as an upper trough and associated cold front overspread central Indiana. Forecast soundings continue to show rapid saturation in the lower levels after Sat 06Z with the best forcing moving across the state in the Sat 06-12Z time frame. But, the remainder of central Indiana will top off in the low to mid 70s. Strong subsidence in the wake of the trough/front will result in rapid clearing and a return to the radiational cooling on Saturday night.
Expect another cool and dry night as high pressure remains in control across the region. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 50s. /27/ Prior discussion below: Northwest flow aloft will persist through the short term period as another trough swings east through the region overnight and into Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will overall remain in control of our weather as it slides a bit further to our east. Some mainly high clouds will accompany the passage of the trough overnight into early Saturday morning, but cool conditions will persist as lows fall into the low and middle 50s. Then on Saturday, with a few lingering high clouds overhead, highs will warm into the low and middle 80s under mostly sunny skies. /19/ Saturday night, a low level high pressure extends over the southeastern region.
1027 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will persist over the region through tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area from the northwest late Saturday, but with limited moisture.
Temperatures will trend a bit warmer over the next several days. High pressure is currently centered over the Cumberland Plateau. High pressure will remain east of the region tonight which will mean more dry weather for the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain on the cool side tonight with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 50s. On Saturday, a weak cold front will move into the Mid-South from the north reaching near the Tennessee/Mississippi border by early evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
627 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Comfortable and dry conditions remain in place this afternoon as high pressure lingers across the area. Southwesterly winds have increased slightly today ahead of an advancing cold front that remains well to the north, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph this afternoon. This has also contributed to slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday, and maximums will likely reach near 80 degrees in most places as a result. Overnight tonight, the aforementioned cold front will sweep through the region, bringing with it a brief round of scattered showers. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the northwest and weaken overnight.
535 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from just east of Medford, WI to just Prairie du Chien, WI. A band of showers was located about 3 hours after the cold front along the better 800-600 QG frontogenesis. This will allow temperatures to cool into the mid- and upper 30s in central and north-central Wisconsin, and into the lower and mid-40s across the remainder of the area. With 850 mb temperatures 10 to 15C cooler than today, high temperatures will only range from the upper 50s to the mid-60s.
911 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 (Issued 912 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021) Showers continue to progress east across the area along a cold front, and should be east of the region by midnight. Temperatures have fallen rather quickly into the 50s with the frontal passage, and should bottom out overnight in the low to mid 40s. Boxell (Issued 330 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: The cold front has pushed through much of MN and is entering W/SW WI this afternoon. Good forcing with the cold front and slight steepening of the lapse rates aloft will support some limited chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier air quickly arrives behind the front with lows tonight falling into the 40s.
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from just east of Medford, WI to just Prairie du Chien, WI. A band of showers was located about 3 hours after the cold front along the better 800-600 QG frontogenesis. This will allow temperatures to cool into the mid- and upper 30s in central and north-central Wisconsin, and into the lower and mid-40s across the remainder of the area. With 850 mb temperatures 10 to 15C cooler than today, high temperatures will only range from the upper 50s to the mid-60s.
Further southeast across the FL Big Bend a greater easterly component to the surface flow will allow the slow advection of limited low-level moisture into the forecast area from the Atlantic and keep lows in the lower 60s. No rain is expected across the majority of the forecast area through Saturday but a weak trough, associated with that easterly flow from the Atlantic, will potentially lead to a few isolated showers across our marine zones and coastal communities by the Apalachee Bay. The drier pattern is expected to continue over the rest of the weekend as a reinforcing shot of drier moves into the forecast area as an upper level trough moves through the deep south.
Current Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients right around 29/19 mtrs respectively that are expected to increase through the morning hours as the trough approaches.
358 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021 A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley today bringing a period of cloudy skies and a chance for showers in the morning. This high will offer dry weather with temperatures closer to normal. Progressive mid level trof to pivot through the Great Lakes today. Associated surface cold front to move into western Ohio around 12Z and through central Ohio by 18Z. Winds will shift from the southwest to the west behind the cold front with skies clearing this afternoon. Cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 60s today. Temperatures closer to normal with highs in the lower 70s.
206 AM MDT Sat Sep 25 2021 Persistent ridging aloft with above normal heights and downsloping low level flow will yield very warm and dry weather thru the weekend.
Meanwhile a cutoff upper level low will take shape across the desert southwest (AZ area). At the surface, high pressure will be centered across eastern NE early Saturday morning. This high will shift southeast into MO during the day Saturday, with return southerly flow developing on the backside across the Central and Western High Plains. Warmer air will advect back into the area as a result and expect above normal temperatures Saturday and much above normal on Sunday.
1223 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 Sharp forcing with a front/upper trough is quickly pushing east across WI this afternoon. More cloud cover will keep highs over WI down more in the lower 60s.
The storms west of Tucson from the morning hours have broken up, while strong thunderstorms are noted closer to the low in Southern California, northern Baja and far southwest Arizona. At that point an upper level diffluent flow over SE AZ and an impulse rotating up on the eastern flank of the low should bring an interesting environment for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. There's enough support for the low to spin up a little stronger before it kicks through Sunday.
A band of high level cloudiness, some likely transparent, will stream across today, ahead of an upper trough, but mostly sunny conditions still anticipated. A weak dry surface front/trough will approach the region late tonight, and possibly undergo frontolysis, with minimal impact. A weak upper level trough passes across The Midlands and CSRA Sunday with no noticeable weather impacts.
125 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021 A period of rain showers is expected this evening into the overnight as another cold front tracks across the area. Cooler weather will settle in for Saturday with high temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s. An upper level trough continues to strengthen today as a strong upper level jet streak (120+ knots) sampled by Glasgow, MT morning RAOB continues to dig through the base of this trough. Deep layer subsidence will build in Saturday with mainly sunny skies and cooler highs from28 the mid 60s northeast to low 70s far southwest.
Not a whole lot of weather this week with high pressure building and lingering over the Northland for most of the upcoming week. The exception to the rule is today northwest flow and a departing upper trough may clip the MN Arrowhead with some light rain (QPF<0.
At the surface, cold front extends from extreme southeast Nebraska to between KHUT and KICT. Temps on Sat will be fairly close to seasonal values as they top out in the low to mid 80s. A strong cold front continues to push south across the forecast area at this time, currently located from just north of Iola to Enid. Could even see some virga from some of the mid level clouds, but very dry air in the low layers will keep most of this moisture from reaching the ground. The most dangerous burning conditions will be for areas along and west of Highway 14 where the strongest winds will overlap the lower RH values.
An upper trough axis will swing through the area today, reinforcing the dry and mild conditions already in place. Upper ridging will continue to build to our west, influenced by a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula. Influences from the synoptic pattern will change little over our area through the short term period, as we remain on the eastern edge of the ridge and northwest flow persists aloft.
1120 PM MDT Fri Sep 24 2021 The 24/12Z H500 hand analysis chart showed merging low pressure systems over Upper Great Lakes region and upstream. high pressure dominating most of the Pacific Coast. creating a broad Rex pattern as high pressure is forced into the Intermountain West by the far upstream low digging into the E.
A Frost Advisory for parts of the south central and southeast continues through early morning as temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 30s, with upper 20s already reported in Glen Ullin. Temperatures will warm quickly through the morning and into the afternoon due to upper ridging building, with 850 temperatures in western North Dakota in the 21-22 C range. Quiet weather continues tonight with temperatures staying warmer than previous nights, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
A strong upper trough is currently diving southeast through the Upper Midwest. The better upper dynamics are staying northeast of the forecast area, but the trough is driving a weak cold front through northeast Kansas. A few spots near the Nebraska border may be slightly cooler, as skies will clear earlier there. Skies remain clear as high pressure continues moving east. Temperatures more typical of August will return Sunday as ridging over the northern Rockies expands east and a cutoff low becomes more established over the southern Rockies. This will allow for lee troughing across the High Plains, with a stronger pressure gradient developing in response.
There really is not much to talk about from tonight through Sunday night as a ridge sits over the CWA keeping a warming and drying trend going, contributing to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Saturday the humidity looks to drop to the low teens with wind gusts to 35 MPH possible in the afternoon, so a Red Flag Warning has been issued for that time period. Sunday looks to be a little drier and a few degrees warmer, but the winds are a bit weaker, so fire weather conditions will likely remain elevated with the closest to critical being in far southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska panhandle where the winds are forecast to be the highest.
Some clouds this afternoon ahead of cold front but no measurable rainfall expected with the front this evening.
Lowered temperatures a few degrees in places tonight mainly based on temperatures yesterday morning as dew point temperatures are generally lower than last night at this time though temperatures are slightly warmer.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low continues to spin to the west of the area near the southern California coast. The position of the upper low puts our area under ridging with west to southwest flow and a stream of upper level clouds overhead. This will all keep our weather similar to the last few days, with continued south to southeasterly surface winds, partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, and temperatures near or slightly warmer than normal in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Today Through Sunday Night A cold front will continue to push southeastward into the state today as an upper trough sweeps across the Midwest. Other than a wind shift, with a bit of cloud cover and possible light rain across northern AR early in the day, no other impacts are expected with this cold front.
The upper level closed low currently over the southwest CONUS will slowly retrograde to the west-southwest today and tomorrow before tracking back to the east over the northern Baja by tomorrow evening. A sharpening trough over the Central Plains will push a surface cold front into the Texas Panhandle late tonight, but it should stall and become more diffuse around the I40 corridor. The cutoff low over the Four Corners region will gradually weaken and shift eastward on Sunday ahead of a potent mid/upper-level trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Dry and benign weather will come to an end as the cutoff low moves overhead and transitions into an open trough ahead of the "parent" mid/upper-level low that should become neutrally-tilted over the northwestern U.
240 AM MDT Sat Sep 25 2021 Fairly straight-forward forecast, given the strength of the ridge of high pressure and the lack of any significant precipitation.
This is associated with an upper trough swinging across E Conus.
354 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 Showers associated with a cold front will move east out of Illinois this morning. The remainder of Saturday will be dry and cooler with a fair amount of sunshine and breezy west winds.
311 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 A mid level trough was progressing eastward into the Ohio Valley early this morning with a ridge present over the western CONUS.
An upper level trough will swing across the midwest and into the northeast by Sunday. Lows tonight range from the low to mid 50s inland to near 60 along the coast.
Outside of the morning fog potential, Saturday looks to be a quiet day as high pressure passes to our south. A relatively tight pressure gradient will set up across the area, with high pressure to our southeast, low pressure in Nebraska, and lee trough trailing southwestward through the High Plains. While there will be higher dewpoints advect into the area around the high pressure to our southeast, there remains very dry air aloft and mixing into this dry air aloft will erode some of the lower level moisture.
1115 PM MDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Upper level ridge begins to slowly rebuild across the area later tonight and through the day Sat as cut-off low over the swrn U.
351 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 It's another chilly start with temperatures in the lower 40s and a few locations that have light/near calm winds are in the upper 30s this morning.
Temperatures Sunday will also trend up a degree or two most locations as ridging amplifies ahead of the aforementioned low, with highs reaching into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees for most Sunday afternoon.
Dry weather and cooler temperatures will continue for southeast Georgia and northeast Florida throughout the rest of the day and overnight as high pressure and dry air extends over the region from out of the northwest. Clearing skies and calm weather will carry over through the weekend as high pressure continues to dominate the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be slightly higher for Saturday and Sunday with daily max temps ranging between the lower to upper 80s with the highest values occuring further to the south. Overnight low temperatures will range between the upper 50s and lower 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s along the eastern shoreline.
A weak trough will move across the area today, but with very little moisture, rain chances will be slim to none. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s for most, though Dixie County may peak into the upper 80s.
Overall it will be a terrific day to enjoy the outdoors with highs generally topping out in the lower to mid 80s.
338 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 A cold front is moving southeast through the forecast area this morning. A cool high pressure system will build across Missouri and Illinois today, bringing temperatures back into the low to mid 70s. The high will continue building east-southeast tonight providing light and variable wind and a clear sky. Carney By Sunday, a broad upper level ridge will steadily move eastward and into the central US and Mississippi Valley.
The trough axis will shift east of the area today and a ridge of high pressure at the surface will move overhead. with a developing area of low pressure in the plains.
/Issued 243 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021/ High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the short term. Low pops still okay for the end of the period in the far east central and northeast with a trough deepening off the mid Atlantic coast. 41 The accompanying front from the upper level trough in the Ohio River Valley will skirt through portions of the CWA Saturday night, reinforcing the cool and dry airmass that is currently blanketing the region. After the upper level trough and weak surface front moves east Saturday night, ridging at the surface and upper levels begin to develop over the southeast.
To the east, cooler highs in the middle to upper 60s are expected. The temperature swing will be driven by an H5 ridge to our west that will slowly work eastward today into Sunday. Upper level flow remains out of the northwest today, with a westward shift heading into Sunday as the ridge approaches the region.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with highs nearing 70 toward the IL border and mid to upper 60s toward central WI. More ridging overhead will help to keep the winds lower for central WI, but still expect some gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoon in our south. Temperatures will be even warmer as southwest winds kick in with highs in the mid 70s toward central WI to around 80 along the IL border. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower to mid 50s.
1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, an upper level low was over Southern CA/Northern Baja Mexico, with weak upper level ridging over West Central Texas. Some slight warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge today is likely to bring a couple degrees of warming, with highs this afternoon in the 85-90 degree range. Forecast lows will again be in the low to mid 50s south of the Big Country, and upper 50s in the Big Country. Saturday, south to southeast low level and surface flow will continue due to a ridge to our east.
353 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 Quiet weekend ahead, with warming temperatures as broad upper ridge begins to build into the region. Temperatures will also be warmer though, with highs in the 80s, so still looking at minimum humidity levels 25-35 percent for Sunday afternoon. Winds expected to be on the lighter side most areas though, with perhaps some gusts to around 20 mph in areas where the humidity levels are on the higher end of the range.
331 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 The cold front has made it into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle as of 2AM. For tonight upper ridging will move back overhead and will keep things on the warmer side tonight. A pair of cutoff upper level low pressure systems over the southwestern U.
103 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 For the 25/06Z TAF update, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with upper-level high pressure across Texas, maintaining northwesterly flow and high cloud decks into our airspace.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 78 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 76 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 76 52 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 74 50 75 50 / 0 10 0 0 0.
357 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 Northwest flow aloft continued early this morning across the region as an upper trough extended south from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. Warmer temperatures aloft advect into the region, with guidance temperatures supporting highs in the lower 80s, to near 85 far southwest.