Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS. COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S- SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE. UA RIDGING WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH PLAINS.
1110 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
FEEL THE ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
955 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
1136 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TONIGHT. DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN TODAY EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING.
715 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast. Sunday, the ridge will be east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft.
658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE AREA OF CU EXTENDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING.
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL TURN LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
1154 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FUNNELING INTO AREA ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRENDED LOWS A TOUCH WARMER GIVEN LIGHT GRADIENT AND WEAK WAA. SUSPECT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT TOWARD MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 255 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. CALM WEATHER PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL LEADING TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES.
A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA.
829 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES. ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER SPOTS OF GARRETT COUNTY.
708 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
UPDATE COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
758 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN MORE DRIER AIR AT THE HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
812 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
1257 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND.
833 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.
1144 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 AVIATION FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AS SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST. BY SUNDAY EVENING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ ARRIVES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. AND A TROUGH NOTED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A QUICK SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SFC WOULD INDICATE THE TROUGH NOW EAST OF KAIA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS JUST BEGUN ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IN THIS AREA. UNSETTLED PERIOD AHEAD AS A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
1003 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE SFC RIDGING HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. IN VC OF A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL /700MB/ TROUGH THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THIS REGION.
915 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. CALM WEATHER PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL LEADING TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NEAR THE GA AND FL COASTS WITH E TO SE LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO PER JAX SOUNDING. MINS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
WARM DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR EARLY WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER. WITH RURAL AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S WHILE INDY METRO AND OTHER URBAN LOCALES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SFC WINDS BCMG LIGHT AS THE RIDGE CENTER PUSHES OFFSHORE.
A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST. THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
SO FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO INSERT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH. THE LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DEEPENS AND EVENTUALLY FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS IT FLATTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER AS A RESULT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
543 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 STRATUS ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR IS SLOWLY INCHING WESTWARD IN DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST. BUT WITH 925 HPA TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING IS PRESENT SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GIVE A DRY NIGHT.
The HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on the low-level clouds and have followed its solution closely for the remainder of the night.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SWUNG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT LOWS IN THE MID 30S GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH VALUES NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SINCE DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH BUT FREEZE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
615 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 HAVE MADE AN UPDATE TO INCREASE --SN COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
547 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 120 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/ UPPER LOW WAS VISIBLE ON RADAR LIFTING NE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN TN WITH AN ATTENDANT DRY SLOT WHICH HAS SHIFTED HEAVY RAIN EAST OF OUR AREA.
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LOW WILL BRING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWESTERN OREGON COAST AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS LOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN AT SNOWMANS SUMMIT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THORUGH THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE OFF TO THE NE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 28 33 23 45 / 100 30 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 25 30 18 42 / 100 60 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 26 31 18 41 / 100 60 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 28 15 38 / 100 90 20 10 NC.
/ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/ Main forecast challenge for tonight will be the low cloud deck lurking to the northwest of the Tulsa area and potential impact on low temps. A warming trend will take place over the weekend as upper ridging shifts east across the southern plains and winds pick up out of the south.
Also of note, forecast soundings continue to support the threat of thunderstorms during the day Saturday behind cold front, especially if we can get enough breaks in the cloud cover.
930 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
645 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE.
THIS WILL BE THE STORY OF THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESS EASTWARD.
642 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
/ISSUED 354 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/ NORTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING THEIR DOWNTREND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE VALLEY OVERCOMES THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS OREGON WILL BRING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A BRIEF DRY SPELL.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND IT, THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
507 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH-FACING SLOPES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AMIDST TWO ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON THE WEST COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF 1-3 INCHES (AND SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS) OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE MELTING (AND NOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS) AND RE-FREEZING OF THIS SNOW ONTO THE ROADWAYS HAS CREATED ICY CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS.
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. ANY DENSE FOG THAT FORMS WOULD BE FREEZING FOG. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
413 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROF CROSSING THE SE AND LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRES WAS RIDGING SOUTH ACRS THE PLAINS INTO TX. WHILE TEMPS ACRS LOWER SE TX HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 50S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
Although previous guidance was quick to clear the clouds overnight, have kept the clouds in place as the llvl moisture does not break up until the mid morning Saturday with the winds giving way to a building ridge. Plenty of residual moisture across Illinois will keep clouds in place during the morning, but clearing should eventually develop as dry mid level air finally mixes out the low level moisture. So highs on Saturday may be slightly cooler than previous MOS guidance numbers.
733 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
515 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
827 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
645 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING FAIR WEATHER. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER PENINSULA TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE HURON.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
/ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROPAGATE EAST OVER ROCKIES THROUGH SAT. WILL INDUCE AND STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WINDS AND SENSIBLE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK. BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE LARGE AREAS BELOW FREEZING FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS AT THIS TIME.
COOLER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
610 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE HURON TONIGHT WILL RESULT FROM THE INTENSIFYING MID ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ISSUED 235 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 EXPANSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST CYCLONE IS MANIFESTED LOCALLY AS DRY EASTERLY FLOW SO FAR TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO A MORE NORTHEAST FETCH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR REVEALS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
RECENT ND DOT ROAD REPORTS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST BLOWING AND LOW DRIFTING SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH SUFFICIENT BREADTH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PRD. CURRENTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS KEEPING A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS OF 19Z. AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL VEER SE BY SAT NIGHT ALLOWING FOR GULF WATERS TEMPS TO INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES INLAND.
18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
/ISSUED 515 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/ VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
GREATER QPF AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
620 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
857 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ARE COOLING QUICKLY WITH A GAP IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AIRMASS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS MAY TOP 60 DEGREES.
340 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WYOMING AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
312 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AIRMASS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS MAY TOP 60 DEGREES.
638 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 WE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND. HRRR DATA VIEWED IN BUFKIT SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF NOTEWORTHY VERTICAL MOTION IN THE STRATUS LAYER BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -5 C. RECENT ND DOT ROAD REPORTS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST BLOWING AND LOW DRIFTING SNOW IS OCCURRING WITH SUFFICIENT BREADTH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
702 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
640 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE.
602 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
AND PERHAPS BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AS A POCKET OF COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS.
318 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH-FACING SLOPES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WYOMING AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE RAIN SHADOW AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND HIGHEST IN THE KING RANGE OF SW HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG WITH OTHER S-W FACING INLAND RIDGES.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND MAY HELP TO WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER A BIT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP US MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND AND PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ASIDE FROM A FEW MARINE SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR CWA MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE FL TURNPIKE AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ADVANCES WESTWARD.
THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA. WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING AWAY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
WHETHER THIS SYSTEM DOES EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONE OR NOT.
833 AM MST MON JUN 15 2015 THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE LOWER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERTS. WHILE THE OUTLYING DESERT LOCALES FELL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
SO AFTERNOON POPS IN THE LOW END LIKELY RANGE STILL SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.