Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 The primary synoptic feature is the pronounced upper-level anticyclone spinning over the Southern Plains this afternoon. The high CAPE/low shear environment will be supportive of ordinary cell, pulse convection, maintaining a minimal potential for severe weather. Temperatures are in the low/mid 90s across the Mid- South, with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees at numerous automated observing stations. Hotter weather conditions are anticipated for the latter portion of the work week as the subtropical ridge builds eastward.
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery showing upper level ridge building over the Northern Plains states. First impulse over topping the ridge over central Nebraska is producing showers/thunderstorms this area per latest mosaic radar. 00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in good agreement in building upper level ridge over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Impulse over central Nebraska overtopping upper level ridge is expected to push into the western forecast area around 00z Wednesday. Next impulse overtops upper level ridge tonight and moves into southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin tonight. as the low level jet/moisture convergence weakens over the area.
Temps warming rapidly this morning with many in the lower 90s.
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Cooler Canadian air will blow in via northwesterly winds today. Dry high pressure will build over the region tonight through Wednesday.
218 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016 An increase in clouds and humidity can be expected during the next couple of days along with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of the Lower Colorado River Valley. Storm chances on the lower deserts will be slight, with better chances over the higher terrain and over southeast Arizona. Low afternoon convective trigger temperatures will make the lower desert airmass in south central AZ more susceptible to convection produced by convective outflows moving in from southeast AZ, especially with weakness/support aloft. Upper level weakness and support is what we've been focusing on for a few days now with the approaching inverted trof (IT) from Chihuahua Mexico.
124 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide fair weather across our area today and tonight. Highs today will be in the mid 80s with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
As far as severe weather potential today, it remains a low coverage and low probability as the highest CAPE depicted by any model is around 2500 J/kg via the NAM12. Certainly a potential for some efficient rain producers, but with the low confidence in the widespread coverage of the convection today, held off on any flash flood headlines18 at this time.
Upper high remains over the south central states through these periods with general subsidence resulting.
/issued 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ (Today and Tonight) With an upper ridge dominating the region, dry and hot will continue to punctuate the forecast for the next 24 hours. Tonight, lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
356 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 The eastern edge of a large upper ridge centered over the central CONUS will gradually expand into Michigan through the mid-week period.
533 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through Wednesday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast by late week.
241 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Upper level ridge of high pressure is over the region along with a hot a muggy air mass. Temperatures are currently in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Highs will warm into the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 108 range. The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. Dewpoints may slightly cool each day as little rainfall occurs, but if this occurs temperatures may get a tad warmer which should not affect heat index values each day.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge of high pressure is centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley today. High surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s combined with highs in the middle to upper 90s will result in heat index values reaching or exceeding 105 degrees later this morning until early this evening.
Over the weekend, strong high pressure will bring a significant warming trend, with weekend temperatures approaching the triple digits across the interior. Heading into the remainder of the week, the broad trough that has remained nearly stationary off the Pacific Northwest coast will gradually drift off to the north.
As the upper level ridge retrogrades a little bit today, the Atlantic trough axis will begin to approach the area.
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis show large scale ridge centered over the plains dominating the pattern across the US. Moist monsoonal plume is wrapping around the western extent of ridge into the Rockies. At the surface; low pressure is in place across eastern Colorado with a trough axis extending from northeast Colorado and across northern Kansas. Regarding temperatures/heat indices: Air mass aloft is only expected to become warmer and consensus shows highs 2-4F warmer than today.
Today Through Wednesday Night With the center of the upper level high pressure just to the west of the state.
Deep layer ridging remains centered to the north of our forecast area, maintaining deep easterly flow through the column. A band of higher moisture rounding the base of the high will continue moving west through the CWA, keeping scattered showers/storms over inland areas over the next several hours. Strong mid level ridge will persist over the central/south central U. from mid to late week with a trough pushing off the eastern seaboard. Predominant easterly flow will continue across central Florida as ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remains near to north of the area. Onshore winds will keep highs near normal along the coast, around 90 degrees, and near to slightly warmer than normal inland, in the low to mid 90s. Ridge aloft elongates across the southern half of the U.
The main story for today will once again be hot and humid conditions as a summertime ridge strengthens over the region.
Southeasterly winds have also been a more present feature with the center of the the summertime ridge to our east over Oklahoma. This pattern will remain with us through early tomorrow as the ridge then begins to expand westward with time. An increase in heights and temperatures aloft along with eventual drying of the atmosphere will result in afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer than today. Broad mid-summer ridge centered near the Ozarks is still forecast to migrate slowly westward later this week while diminishing in girth and flattening.
A large upper trough offshore is sending individual upper level waves east of the Cascades. There will also be isolated thunderstorms along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades associated with the parent upper low itself.
402 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Bermuda ridge flow in the lower atmosphere is well planted and steady-state while upper ridging centered over oklahoma is holding firm for subsidence aloft.
253 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016 A cold front will stall out overhead before passing through the entire area tonight.
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure in the Great Lakes will build to the southern New England coast Wednesday.
Very little change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hrs, as an upper ridge of high pressure remains over the central US. This will keep Colorado on the western side of the ridge, with monsoon moisture continuing to stream into the western half of the state. Lingering showers this morning indicates plenty of available moisture, so convection is expected to fire up in earnest once again by midday over the higher terrain, then slowly move off across the adjacent plains through the aftn. Another hot day on tap as well, with max temps in the 90s to around 100 F for the plains, and 80s to around 90 F for the high valleys.
623 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Central Lakes will drift East and move off the East coast late Wednesday.
236 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 In the large scale, an upper Low is spinning off the Washington- Oregon coast and the subtropical High is on the southern plains.
208 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Nam shows a deep 500 mb trough on the west coast and a broad trough over ern North America with a broad 500 mb ridge over the southern U. Even with the ridge in place, hard to argue that there will not be some type of elevated convection late tonight and could see an accas field and all models are putting out some qpf, so went with low chance pops late tonight across the west half of upper Michigan. Sun and Mon is a toss-up on the pattern with the ECMWF showing a deepening upper trough while the GFS has zonal flow or slight ridging aloft. High pressure dominates into this evening, then a complex of thunderstorms upstream with stronger upper level disturbance could move over western Upper Michigan near daybreak on Wed.
431 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 A cold front will move into the area tonight and Wednesday then dissipate. High pressure will build in late week into the weekend. Latest sfc analysis has 1024mb high pressure over the western Atlantic and the cold front across the southern half of VA. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to mid 70s coast. A large ridge of high pressure will build east through late week into the weekend with drier conditions and hot temperatures.
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure will move into the area today, bringing drier conditions, with temperatures near normal.
347 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 A warm front will approach the region overnight and will bring light snow to the north country, mainly after midnight and continuing into Saturday.
The warmer temps will allow better mixing of the LLJ, which will likely result in breezy to windy conditions Sat across S TX.
247 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 Dewpoint temperatures in the lower 50s have returned to parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon along with some lower clouds. On Saturday, a broad, southwest-to-northeast, 85h thermal ridge will be replaced quickly by much cooler temperatures Saturday night. A rather tight thermal packing behind a cold front will result in strong wind gusts for several hours.
The big weather stories are today's warm up, this morning's light snow accumulations, and the slight chance for freezing rain/sleet this morning. There is a slight chance of freezing rain or sleet from Hallock to Bemidji and northeast through the Lake of the Woods region this morning as the warm air aloft pushes into the region.
Temperatures are warmer and winds are lower than previously forecast. It seems the rather stout inversion is protecting us from the higher winds aloft and even though we are warmer than forecast we expect this trend to continue. Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan with stout warm front lifting over western into central North Dakota. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the central United States. Rather broad cloud cover has developed as the warmer air pushes into the area.
High pressure centered near the Carolina coast will push east southeast while the associated ridge axis settles across central Florida. Overnight lows will be in the lower-mid 50s while highs warm to the upper 70s along the coast and lower 80s inland.
Water vapor imagery shows moist southwest flow over our region with fairly weak trof to our west and flat ridging shifting to our east. Upper trof to our west will move east thru the region tonight. Temps will be cooler the next couple days with highs in the 30s to near 40 tomorrow and a hard freeze Saturday night.
Low pressure will pass across Illinois Saturday evening triggering light rain. The 12z models are in decent agreement that the low will track roughly along I-70, advancing into Indiana by midnight. The highest rain chances continue to be focused east of I-57 during the evening, with precip tapering off after midnight in the wake of the low.
134 PM PST Fri Feb 10 2017 Precipitation will return to the area this afternoon/tonight through early Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the region.
1238 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Clouds will continue to thin this afternoon with warmer air returning to the region courtesy of gusty southwest winds.
205 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 Tonight a backdoor cold front will slide through and cool things off a bit.
226 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure will move offshore this evening. Then tonight, another increase in high clouds is expected as a warm front lifts through the Tennessee valley NE over the Appalachians. Continued mixing through the overnight should keep lows up in the mid to upper 30s (10+ degrees warmer than last night). With broad ridging aloft, expect partly cloudy skies with highs much warmer than today, 65-70.
235 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest Ontario, with warm front well east of the region and cold front extending west along the Canadian border. Upper level analysis shows broad ridging over the central US, with trough off the west coast. Thermal ridge is in place over the region right now with very mild temps across the area, 40s and 50s.
Afternoon water vapor imagery indicates a long-wave trough from western Canada into the eastern Pacific. The northern portion of this trough is expected to remain progressive across the northern Plains over the next 36 hours. As this occurs some cooler air will filter into the CWA with highs on Saturday cooler than today. Confluent flow in the 850-750 mb layer ahead of the positively- tilted upper trough will lead to a tightening of the thermal gradient over the central/northern Plains on Saturday, and some frontogenesis is indicated in this layer.
Forcing for ascent is rather weak, though some convergence will exist ahead of the low.
1222 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure will move offshore the Carolina coast today. High pressure in place over the Carolinas will move offshore today in concert with the strongest height rises aloft. As such, lows tonight will be 10F+ warmer than this morning, in the mid 30s. With broad ridging aloft, expect partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with highs Sat afternoon much warmer than today, in the mid/upper 60s. With ongoing airmass modification and a potential for low stratus development Sat night, expect mild low temps in the lower 50s Sun morning.
Ample low-level moisture continues to stream into the region from the south as dewpoints have increased into the low to mid 60s across the Coastal Plains and into the 50s for the Rio Grande Plains.
From water vapor we find an immense mid level high pressure stretching from the central Gulf of Mexico northward along the Front Range to the Dakotas. Another strong upper low is heading eastward off the Pacific Ocean toward the Pacific Northwest.
1100 AM MST Fri Feb 10 2017 Another mild morning with temperatures currently in the low to upper 40s at most low elevation locations in the CWA and upper 20s to upper 30s in the mountains.
1130 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 The warmer air has arrived. A low pressure system currently located over North Dakota and the International Border will continue to shift the winds to a zonal component during the day. The warmest temperatures will occur west of the I-29 corridor and the downslope area of the Buffalo Ridge with highs reaching the low 50s. Lowered pops in the morning from given Superblend with dry air in the lower levels initially. Although it will be a cooler day in a northerly low level flow, any precipitation will be in the form of rain with highs in the 40s.
The high pressure system currently over the southeast is keeping the area dry and clear for the next few days.
High pressure along the Carolina Coast will push further into the Wrn Atlc with ridge back across NE FL/SE GA. Wrn Atlc High pressure ridge axis will slide southward into Cntrl FL which will allow for a mild SW flow to develop and under sunny skies push afternoon hours well into the upper 70s/near 80 over inland areas, while an afternoon Atlc coast sea breeze will keep the beaches in the 70-75 deg range for highs.
/issued 830 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017/ High pressure over the central coastal Piedmont early this morning slides to the southeast and slips off the SC/VA coast late this afternoon with a relaxing gradient. High pressure north of Fl.
There is high confidence in a dry weekend under a building ridge.
Pressure falls east of the Rocky Mountains in eastern CO and western KS has resulted in increased breezy winds across west central Texas out of the south/southwest, warmer temperatures, and increased moisture. Upper level ridging will move in over the area tomorrow ahead of a developing low along the southern California coast.
330 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Tonight low level moisture will increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
253 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure remain the coast over the weekend allowing for a warmup.
Watching a strong cold front near the International Border drifting south. TFJ A very unusual temperature swing overnight and into this morning as readings continue to climb in the wake of this warm front and mostly cloudy skies. Beyond Saturday, the pressure gradient weakens and an easy ridge of high pressure dominates the rest of the forecast.
120 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017 A cold front will start entering the counties along/north of the KS/NE border after midnight with winds shifting to the north and northeast under 10 mph. Further south warmer west winds around 10 mph expected which should help keep atmosphere mixed. For Saturday 850mb temperatures drop about 10F to 20F degrees (south to north) as the cold front moves south across the entire area.
117 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure over the area will shift off the coast tonight.
317 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis had a 1031mb high centered over the Carolina coast, ridging back across the Gulf coast and a 996mb low over the upper Mississippi river valley. Early afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a 592dam high centered over Mexico with a large broad mid level ridge over most over the CONUS. Despite the cloud cover and rain chances, highs Saturday will top out a few degrees warmer than today from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
Strong cold front was grabbing the most attention today as temperatures were in the teens just to it's north and mostly in the 40s (over northeast Montana). This cold front was in the Plentywood area as of 2 pm and was extending WNW and ESE. This low is expected to move east across Sask, just north of the TransCanada Highway, later tonight/Saturday morning. But a Pacific cold front trailing this low will sweep through the area Saturday. Thereafter, ridging from the Pacific NW moves in.
1143 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 Upper level ridging continues to dominate our weather today. At the surface a high pressure is moving east, while lee troughing is developing over the High Plains. The upper level ridge begins to breakdown late tonight as an upper level trough moves into CA. As it does so a west-east oriented warm front will push north and become quasi-stationary between HWY 36 and I-70. This could change though if the warm front stalls further north or further south than the current forecast. Additionally, areas along the warm front have a chance of rain Saturday. The upper level trough over CA will split into a northern wave and southern wave.
Expected to showers across most of the area this evening through Saturday morning with passage of another upper level trough and cold front. Temperatures will remain above freezing through this evening which will continue snowmelt at most locations. Another round of MVFR/IFR will be possible after 03Z as the trough moves through the area. Bottom line, major hydrologic concerns continue today but drier and cooler weather will lead to receding flood waters heading into the weekend. Cold front passing through swrn Idaho at this hour with rain showers. Upper trough along the northwest coast will move inland today with a couple more weak shower bands, but the main thing will be significant cooling tonight and Saturday.
347 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 Main concern for the short term is the cold front dropping south in northern MN and the stratus behind it. Though it will be cooler in the wake of the cold front tomorrow, we'll still see highs get into the upper 30s, so p-type with anything we see will be rain.
1225 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening has low amplitude ridging across the western CONUS centered along the Rocky Mountains. A trough of low pressure extended from off the coast of British Columbia south into the eastern Pacific. Further east, a trough of low pressure extended from Hudson Bay south into New England.
101 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Aviation A low pressure system centered over North Dakota will track eastward today through the Northern Great Lakes region.
The pressure gradient will relax as the low departs, with wind gusts decreasing this evening. Southwesterly winds in the low levels will veer west to northwest overnight, putting an end to the warm advection. Two weak areas of low pressure pass to our north and south, with southern Wisconsin sandwiched in between.
113 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Cold high pressure over the forecast area this morning will move off the coast this afternoon.
At the surface, high pressure is shifting to the east of the area while the pressure gradient has increased ahead of an area of low pressure over the Plains. Meanwhile, the northern portion of the trough now moving across the Western Conus is projected to quickly move across the Western US and reach the Plains late Saturday and into Saturday night. Return moisture will increase across the area tonight as the high departs and ahead of the developing low pressure system over the Central Plains. The shower chances will persist through the day on Saturday with the highest chances in the west.
1256 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
212 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure system that brought the cold snap to the region the past day or so has now shifted off to the southeast seaboard. Later tonight, Saturday and Saturday night, rich low level moisture will be on the increase from the south ahead of an advancing cold front.
then the expected snowfall over the higher mtns overnight into Saturday. Satellite showing nice surge of moisture now moving across parts of Utah and the desert southwest ahead of an upper trough moving onshore over the west coast. cutting off an upper low over far southern California while the rest of the energy ejects east across the northern Rockys and plains. Expect snow to increase over the higher mtns this evening with snow levels gradually lowering. Snow will continue through Saturday morning then taper off as better moisture gets shunted southward and the northern upper trough passes by.
There is a weak cold front that is moving through the area this afternoon and evening. Clouds will continue to increase during the night and with cold advection and increasing moisture at the lower level, lower clouds will start to increase during the day on Saturday. There is a weak upper level wave that moves into the area during the afternoon and with the lower clouds there could be a slight chance for rain in the far northern part of the forecast area.
1202 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017 Updated to delay the start of the winter storm warning for the higher mtns until this evening as relatively warm temperature currently there should significantly limit snowfall until then. Not as much subsidence as yesterday but winds aloft definitely strong enough to warrant continuation of the high wind warning. Cooler temperatures in the wake of the cold front. Cooler overnight low temperatures with clearing skies and a colder airmass in place.