Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Much warmer temperatures will ensue tonight into Sunday morning compared to Saturday morning as warmer temperatures remain in place aloft, along with increasing/lowering cloud cover. Would expect a ridge/valley temperature split as low clouds should hold off until later tonight and a weaker pressure gradient exists compared to last night on the far western flank of surface ridging shifting into New England. Ridges should cool into the mid 30s to low 40s with valleys dropping into the low-mid 30s. The best chance of rain will come Sunday evening across the Bluegrass and northern regions of eastern Kentucky nearer the core of the upper trough.
1224 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 VFR conditions currently across the terminals with high pressure in place.
1048 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas.
Meanwhile a weak cold front will arrive around or just before 12Z at HOB. Low clouds will be re-enforced by the cold front and it will be difficult for CIGS to lift above IFR by 18Z/Sunday.
Clouds will keep overnight temperatures considerably warmer than last night with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
147 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will be in control of the region's weather through Sunday.
Chilly and breezy day still on tap today with strengthening ridge gradient. Previous discussion Baker Strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will move into New England by this evening which will strengthen the wedge over the CWA.
137 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and cold weather through tonight. Rain chances return late Sunday as low pressure approaches. Dry conditions will continue as high pressure transitions over the region. but slightly warmer due to increasing cloud coverage late tonight.
Areas of fog and drizzle will continue to impact the area early this evening before increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence arrives in the wake of the mid level trough axis. Some elevated instability late Tue night may support a few thunderstorms across the eastern third of Kansas as another cold front moves south across the area. Above normal temperatures will prevail at the beginning of the period before another vigorous mid/upper trough sweeps across the Northern Plains states late Thu driving a cold front south across the area. The lowest conditions are expected this evening.
So once again increased the cloud cover, adjusted the fog, and lowered the high temperatures. Also since models, especially the high resolution is consistent in redeveloping the fog this evening, although in a little different locations, adjusted the timing and area covered by the fog. As a result I also lowered the high temperatures.
Brief high pressure will lead to mostly dry weather into Sunday.
233 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight.
452 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure over the eastern half of the country will move offshore tonight.
The system is forecast to sharpen as it approaches, inducing a surface trof which will move through the PAH forecast area during the day Sun. By then, the cold front's wind shift should be well underway. Some clouds may be a bit slow to clear in the east early Mon due to the departing trof axis.
An upper level trough will move across the Upper Midwest sending a cold front south into the CWA on Sunday. Upper ridging will move over the region on Sunday as the cold front is moving into the area.
An upper level ridge is shifting into ID this morning. A weak front associated with an upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska is approaching the coast.
1144 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Light snow across northwest Minnesota associated with an upper level low propagating eastward across southern Canada will exit during the morning hours. As the system passes to the east, winds will become northwest with the passage of a cold front.
324 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 A positively tilted upper level trough located from Wyoming into southwest Utah will slide southeast across the Panhandles today. A fast moving cold front will sweep southward across the region this morning in association with this disturbance.
Along with the warmer air comes snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, Sunday night into early Monday.
247 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Upper level trough across the central Rockies will barrel across the southern high plains today dragging a Pacific front through the forecast area. Will go on the higher side of guidance for high temperatures today due to strong downslope flow.
351 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 The pesky east CONUS trough that provided the below normal temperatures to begin the New Year has moved off the coast. As of 3 AM, temperatures are generally in the low/mid 20s north of I-40 with readings closer to 30 degrees farther south. With precipitation not expected until after 18z, surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing area wide. However, there may be a few pockets where temperatures remain near the freezing mark for the onset of precipitation.
1251 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U. A frontal system will approach for Monday with wintry precipitation likely, followed by high pressure for midweek with milder temperatures.
18Z surface analysis showed high pressure had drifted southeast into Illinois, as the high continues to slide away a few mid and high levels clouds noted upstream may drift in from time to time late this afternoon. As the high moves further east this evening, low level winds also increase and back to the S/SW which will usher in warmer and moister air. Forecast soundings show lingering moisture Sunday afternoon, therefore cannot rule out a brief period of light freezing drizzle or flurries, but expect most of Sunday afternoon to be dry and cloudy. Highs on Sunday will be near normal, in the low to middle 20s.
419 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 High pressure will build over the region marking the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures. A weak frontal system will approach for Monday followed by high pressure for midweek. Nighttime blended satellite imagery shows the last of the low clouds retreating north into NY. High pressure crossing the region today will mark the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures.
Meanwhile, the GFS is a degree or two cooler aloft. With temps warming aloft and surface temps hovering at or below freezing, an icy mix of snow and freezing rain will become prevalent across nearly the entire area from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. The exception will be south of I-70 where surface temps will rise a degree or two above freezing and thus the threat for icing is less. Despite passage of the system, skies will likely remain mostly cloudy while afternoon high temperatures climb above freezing across the board.
333 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Brutal cold continues into this morning as Arctic high pressure builds into the area from the west. As the high moves east today and Monday, expect warming temperatures. A trough moving by on Monday will produce some light snow, mainly for northern areas.
High pressure will continue produce clear skies at all terminals through the early afternoon Sunday. As the high center shifts east of the terminals by afternoon, winds will becoming southerly with clouds increasing through the remainder of the pd.
Very light rain is possible at all terminals later Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. The trough axis will pass right over the South Plains and models have been consistent with it deepening as it moves east. The trough will push a cold front through around 18Z. With the trough directly overhead to provide lift, and moisture available at mid and low levels, a few showers will be possible Sunday afternoon. Precip chances do not stay around long with the trough quickly moving off to the east and the column drying out.
With best dynamics expected south of the area, moisture will be limited during the period of sub-freezing surface temperatures Sunday night and Monday morning. This should greatly limit potential for a serious freezing rain event. However, western portions of the area, which will see the onset of pcpn soonest, will likely experience at least a light glaze before temperatures begin to warm above freezing by late morning. Elsewhere across the area, potential still exists for freezing rain, however, uncertainty on the onset of pcpn while the cold air in place is why those areas are not currently included in the winter weather advisory.
That slight chance of freezing rain still exists over the next hour or so, but if there is any, it is very isolated and very light. The 07/00Z KGGW upper air sounding shows a warm nose with temperatures above freezing extending from just above the surface to approximately 4k ft above the surface. With surface temperatures already below freezing at Glasgow and areas north, there is a chance of freezing rain with this precipitation that pushes through. Even though the strong warm from from the west looked very impressive in the models leading up to today, it has become evident that the warmest surface temperatures only easily reached the higher elevations and hill peaks across our area. Conversely, the lower river valley locations were much more difficult to warm up today, especially the Milk River valley.
Otherwise, expecting rain overnight into Monday and even periods of freezing rain possible from late evening Sunday through the overnight hours Monday morning.
305 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Mid level echoes are beginning to increase over the region with the approach of the upper trough. The rainfall should quickly come to an end northwest to southeast a couple of hours after sunset, as the mid level moisture and trough axis do the same. Temps will warm to above average Tue-Wed ahead of an approaching closed low moving into the four corners region. The strongest winds will likely accompany the cold front moving into the Southern Plains Thu.
1034 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2018 As a Pacific low pressure trough moves across the area tonight, snow across the west will spread east through the evening, tapering off Sunday morning. Most of the lower elevations can expect an inch or less. Behind the trough colder air will move from northwest to southeast.
1027 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2018 An upper level trof will be moving southeastward acrs CO tonight and early Sun. This system will bring snow to the mountains with areas along the Continental Divide expected to see the highest accumulations, with generally 4 to 8 inches over the higher areas. By midday Sun the upper trof will be south and east of the area and most if not all pcpn will end, although there could be some lingering light showers over some of the mtn areas in the early afternoon.
Gusts to 25-35kt are expected after 17Z at all terminals, with winds then veering to the northwest during the afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. A weak cold front will move through Sunday evening with only slightly cooler temperatures in its wake.
The eastern CONUS trough will continue deamplifying overnight with flow becoming mostly zonal by morning. At the surface, the ridge center will move over the Mid-Atlantic shifting winds more easterly by morning. Temperatures will moderate through the period with highs increasing from the low to mid 50s Sunday, to as high as the upper 60s across the southeast Big Bend on Monday.
Precipitation will begin as freezing rain possibly mixed with sleet or snow generally east of a Fort Scott Kansas to Neosho line or east of Interstate 49 where temperatures will start out below freezing. While temperatures will gradually warm from the west through the day below freezing temperatures will linger into at least early afternoon across the eastern Ozarks east of Highway 65. 15" in the eastern Ozarks where the duration of freezing rain will be longer. The advisory will be cancelled during the day as temperatures warm above freezing. Precipitation will end as the tonight as the upper level trough tracks southeast and associated cold front drops southeastward.
447 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 High pressure will build over the region marking the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures. A weak frontal system will approach for Monday followed by high pressure for midweek. Nighttime blended satellite imagery shows the last of the low clouds retreating north into NY. High pressure crossing the region today will mark the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures.
459 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 The latest surface map features high pressure across the eastern Conus, with the center nearing the mid-Atlantic region. Aloft, a trough is exiting off the New England coast, with another moving in from the Plains to the Desert Southwest. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with high pressure continuing to retreat off to the east today, as the next trough moves in across the central CONUS. This will continue into tonight; however, given the very dry low level air in place, valleys will likely tank into the lower 20s, with other locations ranging from 25 to 30 degrees. The warm nose then kicks in Monday morning, transitioning the precipitation over to freezing rain, and eventually just rain into the afternoon. High pressure will retreat to our east through the period.
232 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Water vapor shows short wave moving through western SD early this morning, with large upstream ridge over the Pac NW and Northern Rockies. At the surface, associated trof is pushing east thorugh the central Dakotas. Upper ridge will then dominate early this week with mild and dry conditions expected.
319 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 (Today and Tonight) Another cold front will move across West Central Texas today and bring winds from the north, along with possible showers. For tonight, an upper trough associated with this cold front, will move farther east taking the potential for showers with it.
Central GA sites should remain overcast in the higher levels until early Monday AM. thinking mainly after 7 AM is best chance for parts of the NW to see some light freezing rain. As far as temps, there still looks to be a decent majority of north and parts of central GA below the freezing mark or right around by Monday morning.
Regional radars all indicate virga and most of the high resolution models advertise some rain showers across much of the forecast area after sunrise. As wave moves over and then east of region later this morning and afternoon, a cold front will sweep quickly across the region. Guidance numbers came in warmer for highs today, but didn't bite too hard on those numbers as solid downslope flow will be tempered by cloud cover, virga and eventually some light rain showers before the cold front puts an end to dirunal warming.
2) Based on the latest low-level relative humidity progs (which show where low clouds would form), the ONLY portion of our CWA where light freezing drizzle would even be possible would be in a handful of far southeast counties, mainly southeast of a Hebron- Osborne line, and mainly just in the 6-9AM time frame. Not a lot of changes from the previous forecast as we still have a very small threat of freezing drizzle in our southeast from warm-air advection type overrunning, and I actually reduced the area for this compared to the previous forecast. Soundings have a significant dry layer in our southeast, so if precip occurs in the far southeast, it looks like freezing drizzle is the precip type. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s.
High pressure dominates the region tonight with partly cloudy skies and patchy fog is developing over the lower columbia basin and the Yakima valley. Meanwhile a low pressure system will approach the two state area and spread mid and high level clouds to the region toward morning and some showers are possible along the east slopes of the wa cascades. Otherwise minor changes were done to the overnight temps that are expected to fall into the 30s and in the 20s across the higher elevations.
347 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 A prefrontal trough moving through northwest North Dakota this morning has kicked up some snow showers and associated gusty northwest winds through the north central and northwest this morning. Broad westerly downsloping wind will push the remnants of the arctic air out this morning and weak cold advection behind the prefrontal trough will aid in mixing and keep temperatures mild. Highs should warm well into the 30s to around 40 southwest to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
217 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with zonal to northwest flow over the High Plains of the US and Canada. To the west a ridge/trough couplet is developing off the west coast of North America with more couplets directly behind over the Pacific.
Spotty showers may also develop on Sunday ahead of a cold front which will quickly race into the area after 08/00Z with widespread convection developing by Sunday evening. SE winds will remain at or below 10 kts overnight, increasing on Sunday with a stronger pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front with higher wind gusts near 20-25 kts possible during Sunday afternoon and evening with fropa. /issued 936 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018/ High clouds continue to stream into the region from the west and northwest ahead of a digging trough of low pressure currently moving towards the Four Corners region of the country. As we go through the night, this low level moisture should continue to increase from west to east and should encompass at least the eastern half of our region by sunrise.
1056 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 For the 06Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites early Sunday morning with gusty north winds for several hours following the frontal passage. /Issued 540 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018/ For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites early Sunday morning with gusty north winds for several hours following the frontal passage. A quick warm up is expected for Monday as heights begin to rise ahead of a progressive ridge.
330 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Main forecast issue in short term lies with the possibility of a light wintry mix of rain/freezing rain later today into tonight, mainly over portions of southeast MO/srn IL/sw IN and the northern Pennyrile of western KY. Brisk southerly flow today should help temps rise above freezing most locations, esp across our southern counties. Even if readings remain slightly above freezing, ground temps may lag warming due to the extended deep freeze we have experienced. The rain should end from northwest to southeast as the day progresses and the trof moves off to the east.
250 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 A weak low pressure system will slowly move through Northern Oklahoma and Southeast Kansas today. This increased moisture, coming over a shallow cold air with very cold ground raises the specter of periods of freezing drizzle over parts of the CWA this morning. Additionally, it appears any freezing drizzle will be rather short lived before the WAA changes the freezing drizzle to straight drizzle by noon. By the afternoon, this low pressure system will move off to the east and the winds will kick around to the west and northwest.
High pressure builds in tonight and passes through on Thursday. The next low pressure system will approach late Thursday night and stall out for the weekend, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms over the area until the next work week.
Early morning frost advisory continues, otherwise a sunny and warmer short term period. Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a clear sky with a mid/upper level ridge parked over the Northern Rockies. The mid/upper level ridge, (700mb/500mb ridge axis) shifts into western and central ND Thursday afternoon/evening, providing for another sunny day with warmer air, and afternoon highs soaring through the 80s.
Tonight, a cold front will move through the forecast area and will bring a chance for showers to most areas.
Models show a weak trough sagging south which may result in a more slack gradient with some easing of winds during the afternoon, so will hold off on a Small Craft for that northern zone. Vorticity maximums continue to rotate through WI, around the large low pressure area over Ontario, Canada. High temps in the lower 70s over much of srn WI with just enough wly flow to prevent lake breeze development. Clearing for tnt with light winds as high pressure approaches from the northern Great Plains. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will bring pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin on Thursday.
Any period of broken cigs will clear with passage of trough axis 00z-02z. Upper low still spinning over Northern Ontario will slowly slip east into Quebec by Thursday. This will push a thermal trough across Southeast Michigan, roughly between 18-00Z, and serve as a focus for showers. Cooler air aloft will not arrive until well into the heating cycle, allowing max temperatures to again reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s. A large dome of high pressure will then build into much of the eastern U. 00Z NAM is aggressive with dropping a cold front into Southeast Michigan in response, while other models remain much further east with this boundary. Temperatures will respond to good insolation on Thursday by rising into the low/mid 70s, putting high temperatures right near seasonal averages.
High pressure over the region will shift east of Utah today.
Some of the high- resolution models (especially the HRRR) are more aggressive with redevelopment this afternoon, although the area where the 14Z HRRR initially redevelops precipitation is does not show much cloud development yet. But with the persistent ACCAS and some high-res model signal, will stretch out the low POPs farther southwest this afternoon. This disturbance will continue to affect portions of the area Thursday continuing the chance for scattered showers/storms with the highest chances remaining in SW/S portions of the fa.
950 AM PDT Wed May 31 2017 A weak low pressure system moving through California will bring cool weather and extensive coastal clouds through Thursday.
Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend across the lower deserts.
620 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 A series of weak disturbances across MT and WY will drop south along a h700mb warm front draped across Neb. It is possible the cap is too strong relative to the low level instability. A very modest 20 to 30 kt h500mb jet will be in place and the higher K indices in the models appear to be mostly south and west of the forecast area favoring the Neb Panhandle.
The anticipated upper level ridge setting up over central and eastern Montana shows up quite well in water vapor satellite imagery. With this ridge in place over the next couple of days, well above normal high temperatures are expected today and Thursday.
926 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Apex of ridge axis moving into western sections of the area today with a bit more capping which will limit convective coverage to the highest terrain and limit movement into the adjacent plains. Upper level ridge and associated axis will be positioned over the forecast area today resulting in sunny to mostly sunny skies and even warmer temperatures. Readings look to warm into the lower to middle 80s for many areas. Thursday looks to be a bit more active as another trough moves into the Pacific northwest. This will shift our current ridge and axis east into the western Dakotas resulting in a southwest flow aloft across our forecast area. The overall view of the forecast is a slightly warmer and drier one, compared to existing grid set.
Enhanced pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the upper level low. Upper low still spinning over Northern Ontario will slowly slip east into Quebec by Thursday. This will push a thermal trough across Southeast Michigan, roughly between 18-00Z, and serve as a focus for showers. Cooler air aloft will not arrive until well into the heating cycle, allowing max temperatures to again reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s. A large dome of high pressure will then build into much of the eastern U. 00Z NAM is aggressive with dropping a cold front into Southeast Michigan in response, while other models remain much further east with this boundary. Temperatures will respond to good insolation on Thursday by rising into the low/mid 70s, putting high temperatures right near seasonal averages.