Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1153 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Low pressure tracks just north and east of the area overnight into Wednesday morning with southwest winds gradually veering to WSW or W. The low pressure system pushes a cold front across SE Michigan during the morning hours and facilitates a wind shift to the NW by early afternoon with speeds aob 10 kt through the afternoon. These cold front will push through Lower Michigan within the next 28 hours. The HRRR is some >3500 ft deeper with mixed layer and supports much warmer daytime temperatures. The second cold front is expected to push off of Lake Huron during the late afternoon under pseudo lake breeze dynamics across the eastern cwa. Temperatures are expected to be considerably cooler with polar trajectories, highs in the 30s areawide.
1054 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Key Messages: - Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon - Much warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue through this week and into the weekend Warm and breezy across the region this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees with southwesterly winds gusting up to around 25 to 30 mph. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s under clear skies.
148 AM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Satellite imagery shows low amplitude ridging over the northern Rockies and a cut off low off the CA coast. We will remain under the influence of the upper level ridge over the next 36 hours, as SW low moves slowly thru the 4-corners region (i. The only impact of the low to our south is to decrease wind potential in our forecast area. JKL Dry and warm conditions will prevail into the weekend with high pressure over the region.
935 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 Dry and more seasonable conditions are ongoing today as the ridging continues. More of the same expected Wednesday, but flow aloft will turn more southwesterly in response to an approaching closed low. Models have been pretty persistent in keeping the low to our south, with most of the impacts limited to far southern parts of the CWA beginning early Thursday morning. West of the Divide, most basins will see temperatures in the low to mid 40s with 30s in higher elevations.
309 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 With high pressure moving east of the region, warmer conditions are expected today. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing some clouds, but no significant chance of precipitation. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front for the rest of the week. Ahead of an approaching cold front, the pressure gradient will increase, with some wind gusts to around 20 mph (maybe as much as 25 MPH) possible this afternoon. Between roughly 22Z-08Z this afternoon and overnight, a cold front will move SSE through the ILN forecast area. Min temps will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s behind the cold front. This high will provide continued dry weather through the weekend.
1012 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 Broad upper ridge dominated the central Rocky Mountains and High Plains early this afternoon. Upper ridge is progged by the majority of the models/ensembles to rebuild from the Rockies into the Great Plains through Wednesday night. Upper low moves onshore into southern CA Wednesday afternoon and tracks east across the Four Corners, south central Rockies and Plains through Thursday night. 15Z SREF plumes are clustering from a half inch to an inch of snow, with upwards of three inches for the higher mountains. Snow will taper off Thursday evening as the upper low pulls further away. 700mb temperatures cool to -2 to -6 degrees Celsius Thursday, with highs in the 30s and 40s southeast WY, to the low to mid 50s NE Panhandle.
Influence from low pressure systems off the Pacific coast will increase the pressure gradient on Thursday afternoon, giving more solid evidence for wind increase, especially across eastern Oregon.
Impulse will clear the Mississippi River early this evening with upper ridging building in behind it. On the surface, high pressure will settle over the area and quiet weather will ensue for the remainder of the period. The high will provide mainly clear skies and warming temperatures through the period although clouds will be on the increase late in the period in advance of the next storm system.
A weakening low pressure system to the north will slide into Quebec today pushing a weak cold front through Lower Michigan this morning. This will yield around 50 degrees across southern portions of the forecast area while the Saginaw Bay lake shadow results in cooler temperatures mainly in the 40s across the Thumb. A secondary cold front expected to push off of Lake Huron during the late afternoon will also helping keep things cooler across the north while bringing a N-NE wind shift.
1258 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A stalled front to the south will return northward as a warm front and provide rain late today into Wednesday. Dry and cool weather moves in for the remainder of week has high pressure builds in.
1008 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure building in today begins a long stretch of dry weather lasting clear through the weekend. Low pressure passes south of the area tonight. Cold front crosses Wednesday night. A low pressure system passes south of the area tonight with negligible impacts over our area other than high clouds. Wednesday night, light precipitation may develop mainly in the northeast mountains as a cold front descends into the CWA. Precipitation would likely begin as sprinkles with light snow possible in the higher elevations, and then transitions to light snow or a wintry mix as temperatures fall overnight. Some precipitation may linger into Thursday, though moisture will decrease throughout the day as high pressure begins building in from the west.
221 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure heads east today. Another high pressure system follows from the Great Lakes into Thursday night. Low pressure moves across the southern U.
Across the east, cloud cover remains leaving temperatures a little lower near freezing. Heading into tonight, a cold front is expected to move across the UP bringing some CAA. Did continue the -shsn/-fzdz mentions in the fcst for the west and north central, esp in the higher terrain.
Still the possibility of light snow accumulations in the higher terrain of southeast Tennesse into North Carolina, but forecast snowfall amounts remain unchanged as well. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 38 66 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 37 61 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 36 61 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 34 56 29 50 / 0 0 0 0 0.
311 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure will remain the main focus of the short term with a continued stretch of much needed dry weather. However, a back door cold front will usher in a slight cooler day for Thursday. Lows tonight will be chilly, but may see a bit more mixing overnight with the back door cold front, thus, only put a slight ridge valley split in for the more sheltered valley locations. At the surface, a moisture-starved cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. High pressure will follow, building southward across the region by late in the day Thursday.
High pressure settles in and winds relax tonight with clear skies and near optimal radiational cooling. Warmer near the coast generally mid 40s. Offshore flow weakens and veers which will bring cool and more air into the coastal areas while warmer conditions prevail inland. Borderline Chamber of Commerce weather Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s inland as the upper ridge rebounds over TX.
337 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will build east into the area today through Thursday.
1237 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 Other than minimal snow chances with a Wednesday night cold front, high pressure should maintain dry weather through the weekend. Clear skies are expected tonight as high pressure moves east across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday morning, though still near seasonable levels. The models still bring a cold front southward across the region Wednesday night. Some of the precipitation may actually be realized as sprinkles or very light freezing rain, but will leave that detail out for now. Precipitation will end Thursday afternoon, with a clearing sky for Thursday night as high pressure returns from the Great Lakes.
Southwest flow aloft and modest synoptic scale ascent downstream from the trough have supported a fairly widespread coverage of very light but measurable rain (and even a few pellets of sleet) across the region early this evening. However, as deep- layer flow veers to the north-northwest in the wake of the progressive trough, we expect precipitation to end rather quickly from W-to-E by 06Z, with only a few pockets of light rain lingering across northeast AL between Midnight-2 AM CST. During these two days, northwest flow at 5h is expected ahead of a ridge position crossing the central and southern Plains. A weak cold front will drop into TN and north AL late Thursday, but no precipitation is expected.
/issued 245 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ WV imagery shows a weak, dirty ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in maximum insolation in subsidence on the backside of the upper trough that moved through these parts yesterday. Temperatures will continue warming under the ridge to above-normal by Wednesday afternoon, and well-above by Thursday, when temps most locations will top out in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Meanwhile, an upper trough currently off the west coast will make landfall in SoCal by 00Z Thursday, resul 99/99/99ting in SW flow aloft over the area.
348 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 Low pressure will pass south of the area today. High pressure builds back in Thursday through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. Broad cyclonic flow develops across the eastern CONUS tonight with weak sfc ridging building into ENC. The models continue to exhibit good run to run continuity and are in excellent agreement regarding the track of developing low pressure off the southeast coast this weekend. The model trend continues to keep the low suppressed south and further offshore with a cool but dry weekend now expected.
1011 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a storm system sliding east through the southeastern States, contributing to a developing low pressure system which currently straddles North Florida. The surface gradient across the Keys has collapsed as the ridge axis erodes. Breezes will freshen overnight as the low pressure system straddling Florida strengthens, then become southwesterly on Wednesday. Moderate to possibly fresh northwest to north breezes are expected Wednesday night as a cold front washes through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
High pressure centered along the mid Atlantic coast is providing clear and calm conditions early this morning. will send a moisture starved cold front southward across the lower Great Lakes into CPA by tomorrow evening.
223 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 Short Term (Today and Thursday): GOES-16 water vapor imagery this morning reveals a compact closed low advecting eastward across the Gulf Coast states. As the system organizes and treks into the Atlantic through the day, an attendant cold front will slide across South Florida. Behind the front, a shallow layer of NW winds will usher in a drier and slightly cooler airmass for Thursday. This will allow temperatures to drop back down to seasonable with overnight lows Thursday morning in the lower 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to lower 60s along the east coast and climbing to the upper 70s by the afternoon.
The lower elevations got quite warm today, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s F in many areas of the eastern plains. Observed highs were up to 5-6 F warmer than forecast in some areas. We also increased forecast lows tonight a few degrees to account for the warmer highs today. Models show upper ridging to dominate the weather for the CWA tonight and Wednesday. 5 c warmer than today's readings. Upper level low will lift northeast through the Great Basin Wednesday night and then move across Colorado on Thursday.
1009 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 Latest upper level analysis has a large ridge over the western CONUS with a trough over the eastern US. At the surface, a weak trough extends through the eastern Dakotas, with high pressure building over the forecast area. Upper ridge holds in place through the end of the week, supporting mild temps and dry weather over the region. Lee-side trough redevelops on Wednesday to the west, with general weak flow expected over the area.
1105 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Strong low pressure will remain across the Maritimes through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
Later today, expect temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s across the CWA except for northeastern and coastal locales which are expected to remain a bit cooler with offshore thermal advection being a main factor. Lows tonight are expected to be in the low 50s with winds expected become light again promoting another round of fog for Thursday morning but is expected to develop further west towards the Rio Grande Valley.
822 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A line of showers oriented along a line from Lake Wales to just north of Venice continues to push east and south this morning, along a cold front.
525 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure heads east today. Another high pressure system follows from the Great Lakes into Thursday night. Low pressure moves across the southern U.
650 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 Broken line of showers along a cold front continue to move through the area during the first half of the day. Highs today will range from the low 70s to low 80s north/south, but will gradually increase through the week.
Gusty virga showers are expected this evening over western NM before spreading into the high terrain as light snow tonight. A few inches of snow are expected in the high terrain east of Chama by Thursday morning. A cold front will race southeast through the area Thursday afternoon with strong west to northwest winds over central and eastern NM. Meanwhile, light snow will focus over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the Raton Ridge Thursday and Thursday night.
418 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure will remain the main focus of the short term with a continued stretch of much needed dry weather. However, a back door cold front will usher in a slight cooler day for Thursday. Lows tonight will be chilly, but may see a bit more mixing overnight with the back door cold front, thus, only put a slight ridge valley split in for the more sheltered valley locations.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. At the surface, high pressure across east Texas this morning will move eastward today. Highs today will range from the low to mid 60s along the coast to the 70s inland under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower 50s across the northern ranchlands to the mid to upper 50s across the Valley and along the coast. Thursday will be warmer with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s across the eastern half of the CWA to the 80s across the west.
/issued 235 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning.
High pressure will build back into the area after this frontal passage. The Keys will remain on the southeastern periphery of the area of high pressure, which will help keep our winds more northerly.
333 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 An upper ridge will extend across the Central U. today as a closed upper low moves into southern CA. The closed upper low will move into the Four Corners Region by late tonight. Thursday, the upper low center will move into far southeast CO. Latest models have trended this low pressure system slightly further south. Another mild day and went near to slightly above the warmer guidance for highs around 65 central and east, to upper 50s to near 60 southwestern areas. The upper low will turn southeast into the TX panhandle and western OK Thursday night.
625 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 An upper ridge will extend across the Central U. today as a closed upper low moves into southern CA. The closed upper low will move into the Four Corners Region by late tonight. Thursday, the upper low center will move into far southeast CO. Latest models have trended this low pressure system slightly further south. Another mild day and went near to slightly above the warmer guidance for highs around 65 central and east, to upper 50s to near 60 southwestern areas. The upper low will turn southeast into the TX panhandle and western OK Thursday night.
/issued 822 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021/ A line of showers oriented along a line from Lake Wales to just north of Venice continues to push east and south this morning, along a cold front.
Accumulating rain and high elevation snow will begin to spread into northern Arizona Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with much cooler temperatures on Thursday.
255 AM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Latest upper air analysis is showing the closed low for our upcoming precipitation event moving on shore. Due to highs being warmer than expected yesterday, have nudged highs to the warm side of model guidance for today. The weak WAA should help to keep lows warmer than last night. Thursday morning, the Tri-State area will remain under the influence of the upper-level ridge as a closed low moves over the Four Corners. The low is expected to continue moving east into the Tri- State area by Thursday afternoon.
356 AM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Dry and mild weather looks to prevail for the remainder of the week with upper ridging gradually amplifying over the western U.
731 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 Low pressure will pass south of the area today. High pressure builds back in Thursday through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. Broad cyclonic flow develops across the eastern CONUS tonight with weak sfc ridging building into ENC. The models continue to exhibit good run to run continuity and are in excellent agreement regarding the track of developing low pressure off the southeast coast this weekend. The model trend continues to keep the low suppressed south and further offshore with a cool but dry weekend now expected.
At the surface, high pressure across east Texas this morning will move eastward today. Highs today will range from the low to mid 60s along the coast to the 70s inland under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower 50s across the northern ranchlands to the mid to upper 50s across the Valley and along the coast. Thursday will be warmer with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s across the eastern half of the CWA to the 80s across the west.
620 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will build east into the area today through Thursday.
Cool NW winds ~5-10 KTS are expected today, but with clearing skies most should reach the lower 60s today. A back door cold front will push into the area from the NE during the day Thursday.
/issued 210 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ Weak ridging will reside over the area in wake of the disturbance kicking east of the Mississippi Valley. Warmer temps will accompany the progressive setup with temps jumping into the 70s today with more widespread U70s and 80s for Thursday as downsloping westerly winds will help warm the region up quickly ahead of the next trough. A low hanging fruit opportunity for place like GDP and the higher terrain of Eddy and Culberson will likely push High Wind Warning criteria mid Thursday afternoon as prime mixing will aid in some strong gusts exceeding the warning criteria.
413 AM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Mean central NOAM ridging will prevail through the end of the week, supporting mild temps and dry weather over the region. Lee- side trough will remain over the region with general light flow through the work week. Easterly upslope flow may limit temps some east of the trough on the SD plains.
1051 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 The western North Atlantic ridge axis has retreated to the south and east, and is now at the latitude of the Florida Keys. A cold front is moving southeast through the Gulf of Mexico, although there is very little convection along its southern flank. A broad area of high pressure over the western North Atlantic will push slowly eastward into the central North Atlantic this afternoon, resulting in moderate to fresh breezes gradually relaxing. A cold front will slide through the Florida Keys coastal waters beginning early Friday, freshening northwest breezes briefly on Friday night.
Early morning water vapory imagery shows strong cyclone rotating east across the AR/MO border. If it were to still occur it would be favored in the south but with surface temps/dewpoints above freezing, flakes would melt on contact. For this reason and that NE winds are not a favorable wind direction for warming, have kept highs on the lower side of guidance. This will allow temperatures to drop below freezing area wide down into the mid to upper 20s. Warmer weather will end the work week and continue through the weekend.
Upper level low should move from northwest to southeast across mid state region tonight. On Friday, still looks like mid state will be on backside of upper low, and strong northerly flow will keep temps cool with highs only in low 50s for most under drier conditions. Still also looks like that over this weekend will see an increase in temperatures as upper ridging works its way over the region.
A cold front has surged east of the area and a drier west to northwest flow has been spreading over the area. Overnight lows cooler into the lower to mid 40s along and north of I-10.
Satellite shows a good swath of cold air stratus just to our west and northwest, and as the upper low traverses the northern fringes of the forecast area tonight, expect low to mid clouds to filter across much of north and portions of central Georgia. For tomorrow, we will remain under the influence of the upper level trough and with high pressure building across the Ohio valley we should continue to partly to mostly sunny skies and some cooler air across the area with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and 60s.
307 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 The upper low is drifting east along the Tennessee border near the lakes as of 20Z, and has behaved itself to this point. The low will move out of the area by 00Z and surface boundary will slowly slip east and south through the region through the evening. We are expecting skies to clear by early Friday, but despite ample sunshine high temperatures will only reach the lower 50s. With dewpoints well into the 20s, clear skies, and only a light northeast wind Friday night a freeze would see like a good bet, but the consensus of guidance keeps most of the area right near freezing for lows.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the Four Corners region northward into the northern plains. For tonight, a rather quiet night is expected as ridge remains over the area. On Friday, ridge passing over the region will keep temperatures quite warm for this time of year. Modest pressure gradient over the area behind departing high and ahead of strengthening lee trough will bring some windy conditions to parts of the area, especially over the central and eastern parts of the state.
With the upper low passing overhead, expect enough synoptic support to keep slight chances for showers in the forecast through the evening. Expect lows to range from the low to mid 40s. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive by Friday morning, as the upper low slides east over the southern Appalachians. Northwest flow will keep a drier airmass in place, and cooler air will be anchored over the southeast. Only expect highs to reach the low 50s tomorrow, making it the coolest day we have had in a while.
313 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A cold front pressing east through North Florida stretches southwest to the north of the Yucatan. High temperatures reached the mid 80s in some spots with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The southern portions of the cold front are nearly shower free, with very little low-level moisture convergence.