Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satellite pictures show the upper trough axis almost through the CWA at this time. The low level winds are north-northwest to northeasterly right now over the plains and foothills. There is some over the mountains Monday afternoon, but not much in the lower levels. For temperatures, Monday's highs will be 0-1 C warmer then today's.
141 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface will persist through Monday.
The upper ridge will flatten out enough tonight through Monday to bring a return of cloud cover and a chance for rain as a frontal system slowly sags south.
The Freeze Warning for this morning has been cancelled, and current temperatures are running in the low to mid 30s. The forecast remains on track, with lows expected to fall slightly below freezing tonight.
245 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Main focus remains on potential for wintry weather in north central Missouri and several consecutive days of freezing low temperatures. This low pressure will track to northeast Missouri by sunrise Monday. This track will result in temperature profiles less favorable for snowfall until the associated cold front passes through and the atmosphere cools. Scattered showers are expected in advance of a cold front within the warm sector for most areas, beginning by the early/mid evening hours. For areas of far north central into northeast Missouri, a sufficient vertical temperature profile for snow is more probable as the low arrives/moves through.
Ridging will maintain mostly dry weather for the early half of the coming week with the exception of light drizzle with overnight coastal clouds. High pressure stationed over the west coast should maintain mostly dry weather through the early half of the upcoming week. Although, moist upper flow overtop of the ridge could bring a light shower or two near the oregon border on Monday evening.
There is decent model agreement in a jet max/upper impulse diving down the backside of the upper trough resulting in a narrow band of light snow. A strong cold front will slam south across the region after midnight, with strong/gusty north winds in its wake.
400 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Clouds have eroded across all but our extreme western counties in east Texas south of I-20 with temperatures running several degrees cooler by comparison to areas in full sunshine. Expect further erosion of clouds over our far western zones over the next few hours with mostly clear conditions initially this evening before clouds gradually return overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
This low will push east during the day allowing for increased rain chances. Temperatures will be held down in the low to mid 70s across the northwestern half of the area thanks to the expected abundant clouds with lower 80s still forecast across the southern interior and inland southwest counties. Longwave ridging will exist across the western half of the CONUS, with a strong upper trough extending from the Gulf of Mexico up through the Great Lakes.
1153 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017 We have issued a quick update to expand the High Wind Warning east into Cheyenne. The sfc cold front will slide southeast across the plains late in the morning through early afternoon and should hang up along the Laramie Range. In the higher peaks of the Snowy and Sierra Madre mountains, expect a few inches of snow as the wave moves overhead and the left exit region of the upper jet brings larger scale forcing to this region, with some shower affecting the nearby valleys as well. High pressure building back from the west on Monday will keep the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming on the breezy side through the day.
This shrtwv will push a cold front through tonight and provide a cool day tomorrow.
217 PM MST Sun Mar 12 2017 A strong high pressure is expected to persist through the end of the week. Mostly clear skies are currently overhead as a rather strong upper level ridge of high pressure dominates our weather pattern. Additionally, under such a strong ridge, winds are expected to remain relatively light this week and follow the usual diurnal/terrain driven patterns. We are expecting temperatures to warm slightly tomorrow as the ridge builds even stronger which may allow Phoenix to hit its first 90 degree temperature since early November. In fact, the ridge is expected to persist as the NAEFS 500 mb heights ensemble mean stays at or above the 90th percentile through the remainder of the week. This will likely keep the Phoenix area in the low 90s through the work week.
/ISSUED 1022 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ A cold front has moved well off the Upper Texas Coast this morning with breezy and cool conditions in place across Southeast Texas behind it. Another reinforcing front will make its way into the region late Monday as Canadian high pressure migrates south and eastward. Onshore flow should resume by midweek as the high moves far enough to the east, but rain chances will be limited (at least until late in the week) as it'll take a while for the atmosphere to modify. As high pressure builds into the region later tonight, conditions will be improving as winds/seas decrease. A sec- ond reinforcing cold front on Mon could raise SCEC flags briefly by Mon afternoon.
1112 AM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Satellite pictures are showing the latest weak upper trough moves across the forecast area night now. Latest satellite shows short wave trough moving across northern Utah and this feature will reach the northern mountains by mid morning. Winds will increase in earnest after the trough passage, first along the Front Range Foothills toward 10 AM, then spreading quickly across the plains through the noon hour as subsidence builds into the forecast area behind trough axis. A warm upper level ridge will be building over the desert southwest today and Monday, bringing Colorado under increasingly warmer and drier northwest flow aloft.
1244 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Upper closed low over the Canadian Maritimes. A trough of low pressure extends southwestward across the Ohio Valley into south Texas, Northwest flow across the Pacific Northwest into the Mississippi valley. Have a mix over the Pine Ridge this morning changing to -rw and spreading east over northern Nebraska in the morning and south through the afternoon into the early evening. A relative shallow layer of Arctic high pressure will begin to lift east from the high plains on Monday and allow quite a range of high temperatures across the cwa. Highs over our far west will be influenced by increasing WAA, with temperatures reaching possibiliy into the lower 50s. Over our far east, the arctic airmass will remain, keeping high temperatures in the lower to mid 20s.
A wedge of high pressure will continue to build down into our area from the northeast. This will bring cooler temps, especially to our northern Georgia zones and an overspreading of low level cloudiness across our region. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure will develop in the western Gulf with moisture gradually lifting northward along and east of this feature. Lows will range from around 40 for our far northern zones to the lower and mid 50s along the coast.
244 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a confluent wnw mid/upper level flow from nw Ontario into the northern Great Lakes between a mid level low over the Canadian maritimes and a ridge building into the west. Weakening low-level convergence, increasingly anticyclonic flow from ridge building in nw of Lake Superior and diurnal heating will all work to disrupt les band formation in the afternoon. Lake/terrain enhancement in a ne flow could produce up to two inches of snow accumulation into the higher terrain of western Marquette County. Models suggest that the amplified pattern with a deep mid/upper level trough over the Great Lakes and ern CONUS will give way to a more progressive flow.
420 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Mostly dry weather is expected today with high pressure, but below average temperatures will continue. This has the potential to be a very cold night however, high clouds in advance of the next low pressure system may limit radiational cooling potential. Low pressure ejecting out of the rockies and into the midwest overnight will make it's approach on Monday. Warm advection ahead of this low. Increasing cloud cover should help to limit surface heating but what warm advection there is should at least get us 10 or more degrees warmer than today, but still colder than the seasonal averages.
A cold front moving into the area early Monday morning will bring a chance at additional low CIGS. Cooler post frontal airmass will remain in place through the morning across most of the CWA. With drier northwest flow and lingering cloud cover temperature will struggle to reach 60 across much of the South and Rolling Plains while the southeast Texas Panhandle will have drier air and warmer and breezy southwest surface winds to scour out cloud cover and advect warmer temps into the mid and upper 60s. , a fairly amplified pattern across North America with a western ridge and eastern trough. There are still differences, however, with the details, particularly at the surface in the handling of cold air entrenched underneath the upper trough.
Elsewhere, lines of clouds were developing over the island chain, mainly over the Lower Keys, and moving downwind towards the gulf side waters. By tomorrow, a low pressure area will start to develop along this front off the coast of the Carolinas and race to the northeast parallel to the United States.
1258 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 The cold front has completely moved through the region, with the stronger northerly winds currently in the process of diminishing. Cold front this morning will continue to push through the area but CIGS are expected to stay predominantly MVFR through the majority of the TAF period. The cold front early this morning was located roughly along the I-10 corridor. Cooler today with breezy conditions through the morning hours. Warmer monday, especially western areas where some clearing occurs. A weak reinforcing surge of high pressure looks to move into the area Monday afternoon and night.
It'll be another cold night, but moderating low-level temps and increasing cloud cover ahead of the low pressure system will keep lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Low pressure starts to peel away to the east Monday night as the upper level trough swings through.
348 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 (Tonight and Monday) Low clouds have been slow to clear out today behind a cold front. Should see clearing skies through the day tomorrow, with warmer temperatures, as afternoon highs approach the upper 60s. Upper level ridging to our west will result in predominantly northwest flow aloft for our area through the end of the work week. In the low levels south to southeasterly flow will persist from late Monday night through the weekend.
1124 AM PDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface will persist through Monday.
Our flow is expected to turn around overnight with return flow moisture coming back into the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
1212 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Extensive cloud cover is keeping temperatures several degrees cooler than what the area was previously forecast to be at mid day. For tonight decreasing cloudiness with lows in the low to mid 20s. Forecast area under fast northwest flow aloft in between upper high over southern California and low pressure over the Great Lakes.
A cold front will make its way into the area after 13/0900z with a resulting wind shift to the north to northeast. /issued 346 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ Convection associated with an upper short wave trough and surface front is ending this morning, with a few reports of large hail and strong winds having been received yesterday evening. ridge will send another cold front into the area tomorrow, but temperatures will actually be warmer behind this front due to mostly clear skies allowing for much more insolation than will be seen today.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The weak cold front moved south of the Rio Grande by the mid to late morning, with only some sprinkles of rain to mark its passage. Cooler and somewhat drier air is filtering into the region on breezy NNE winds. For tonight, broad high pressure will settle across Eastern Texas with winds lessening but remaining northerly. For Monday, clouds will erode through the day, especially as a stronger high pressure system slowly moves south through the Plains states.
High pressure and mostly clear skies will be present through the early morning Monday. though will struggle to get much below freezing in many areas. though low level winds will shift to the southwest early Monday morning behind the high pressure. starting to bring advection of warmer and more moist air to the area. A low pressure system will approach from the NW. In the valley temperatures near the surface should remain warm enough to see all liquid, but we could see some decent accumulations in the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
CAA behind the cold front and persistent cloud cover have kept temperatures lower than the previously expected. Northeast flow will persist through the day as high pressure settles further into the region. MVFR to IFR cloud deck remains spread across the region, with moderate northeast winds in wake of the cold front that passed early this morning.
Winds have also been increasing as the lower clouds have begun to clear. A cold front is expected to drop across the Panhandles this evening and shift winds out of the north. A cold front will be sent southward across the panhandles late this afternoon and this evening in response to the passing short wave to our north. There may be just enough moisture in the far northeast CWA to help with some shower formation as the cold front moves across this area, but any rainfall should remain very light. Southwest winds will be around 20 mph with higher gusts, but winds will be shifting to the north behind a cold front late in the afternoon and early evening.
Due to warmer surface temps across much of eastern NE, if any precip does develop this evening, it may start off as rain before ending as snow, with little if any accumulation.
A weak cold front has pushed as far west as Columbus and will continue to move west overnight. As a ridge start starts to move in, temperatures Monday will begin an upward trend.
1205 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 Fairly quiet weather expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure slowly advanced eastward and is replaced by southerly winds and warm air advection Friday and Friday night. The HiRes models have the highest QPF in southeast MN and west central WI, so have around a half an inch of snow possible later this evening near Red Wing MN.
Strong sfc convergence will enhance the low levels of this moisture train while the upper low near southern California will move east and eventually support this moisture fetch with upper and mid level support. Even though the upper trough weakens as it approaches, divergence aloft will be strong allowing a few disturbances to develop and move within the mean flow northward.
226 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure will build into the area promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. Dry high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley will build SE towards the Central and Southern Appalachians through tonight, maintaining a feed of cool dry air into our region. Guidance indicating low temps late tonight at or below freezing.
Surface analysis places a 1040 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Missouri and Illinois this morning. A dry cold front from last night is now over Central Mississippi. A dry cold front is moving through the area and at 3 am it was located from KBNA-KMEM-KPBF.
High pressure will be over eastern Ontario Sat afternoon with increasing Southerly winds to 10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph over central IL along with more sunshine bringing milder spring like temps back to the area. Highs Saturday afternoon range from the lower 50s by Danville, to 60-65F from Macomb and Springfield sw.
259 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Another cold front moves through early this evening, accompanied by a few snow showers and snow squalls mainly over southern New Hampshire into extreme southwest Maine.
1115 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 A dry cold front will sweep off the coast this afternoon.
High pressure will slowly shift away from the area allowing winds to veer to a more southerly direction Saturday, but it will take a while to increase low level humidity. Will keep the limited threat for fire danger going in the HWO/graphics for Saturday due primarily to the low humidity, although winds will be a bit gusty at times.
High pressure will then briefly work into the region tonight. A band of light snow will develop late tonight into Saturday morning ahead of a northward advancing warm front.
Upper ridge currently over the Great Basin will move into the plains on Saturday.
Adjusted highs a few degrees warmer. /issued 423 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ Ridging aloft will become better defined from the Rio Grande to the Four Corners today all the while subtropical cirrus continues to spill over the region. This cirrus will blossom in extent tonight as as a southern stream trough enters NW Mexico and directs thicker subtropical moisture our way. Until then, lee troughing focusing in CO will keep the core of strongest SW winds (20+ mph) displaced north of our CWA today. Bulk of the low level moisture return will remain over the Rolling Plains but the dryline will manage to push west into eastern New Mexico through the day Saturday. Temperatures will also only warm a few degrees from today thanks to the low level moisture helping to moderate the warmth just a bit.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1039 mb ridge of high pressure centered near Indiana and Kentucky. This is resulting in sunny skies across the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a low amplitude ridge over West Texas and NM and a trough along the west coast of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast with winds generally from the east to southeast across our CWA. The upper level trough in the Pacific will move across Mexico and Texas during this period.
1016 AM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 Upper ridge currently over the Great Basin will move into the plains on Saturday.
234 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 High clouds have been streaming in ahead of an upper level trough situated over the Baja of California this afternoon. A lee-ward trough over southeastern CO has been responsible for our winds this afternoon, which have been gusty at times to near 30 mph across a few areas of our northern forecast area. Overnight, as the upper trough moves eastward, we'll continue to see an increase in cloud cover and a bit of moisture return. Left high temperatures mostly in tact with the higher temperatures across the northwest where clouds should be faster to clear, and the lowest temperatures across the southeast where clouds could sock the area in most of the day.
251 PM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 Latest upper analysis shows a ridge building over the region as an upper trough develops off the coast of British Columbia. At the surface, the lee side trough is deepening to the east of the northern Rockies as warmer air moves in aloft. Tonight into Saturday the warm front will push east of forecast area as the upper ridge crosses the plains. Gusty winds will continue over northeastern Wyoming and the higher elevations of the Black Hills through Saturday afternoon given deep mixing potential and 2-4mb/3hr pressure falls to our east. Temperatures will be 10-20F warmer than average on Saturday.
1254 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Aviation An arctic cold front will slip south of the region this morning taking most of the snow showers with it. A weak wave of low pressure will track from northern Illinois to northern Indiana later tonight and Saturday.
After a break in pcpn Saturday afternoon and night, a stronger north-Pacific cold front will come in with significant rain and snow and sharply lowering snow level. An approaching Pacific low pressure system will send a decent moisture push across the area today. As the moisture and front progress eastward, resulting snowfall looks to anchor over the west central mountains of Idaho, lingering through at least Saturday where it may produce 2 to 6 inches of snowfall over the higher peaks.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a warm ridge axis running from the Four Corners through Montana and into Saskatchewan. The center of Arctic airmass resides over the islands of Nunavut with a trough running over the Yukon and into the Gulf of Alaska where the airmass becomes a relatively warmer Pacific trough. Today through Tonight: Ridge axis aloft will move through the area tonight and allow for some additional downslope through the afternoon and evening keeping temperatures warm. Saturday: Gulf of Alaskan Trough will drop south to off the coast of the Pacific Northwest while the ridge moves over the Mississippi Valley.
255 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central Rockies to the Canadian prairies and a deep trough across the eastern U. This ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sat. With the upper ridge moving into the area, lake effect snow showers will continue to slowly wind down to the east of Marquette and this is already covered in the going forecast. Went again with the coldest I could find which was adjmos guidance which I used last night and did better than the warmer guidance.
Snow showers are moving across the area this afternoon with a cold frontal passage.
1146 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure continues across the area. Winds shifted to the northeast and east behind a weak cold front. High pressure will remain in control with VFR conditions through the period. A new cold front continues to push south through the state this morning. cold front is pushing south through the CWA early this morning.
235 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 A hard freeze will occur tonight as much colder air associated with a strong high pressure arrives.
/issued 1004 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the western part of the country, with a trough over the east. The state of Florida resides along the base of this trough. At the surface, a cold front has passed well to the south of the forecast area, with a strong area of high pressure slowly moving southeastward toward the Ohio River Valley region. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters as strong high pressure builds to our north today.
300 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 The high pressure ridge that has brought SE Texas dry and cool weather over the past couple of days will move eastward as an upper level trough moves across Mexico and into Texas over the weekend. During the afternoon and evening a coastal trough will form as the upper level disturbance moves overhead.
Snow levels will remain fairly high during this precipitation event, so snow will be mainly confined to the higher terrain.
Broadening out just a bit, water vapor imagery this afternoon continuing to show our region under the influence of northwest flow aloft, as weak ridging begins to move/build across the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains. Meanwhile further west, deep upper troughing is expected to begin moving into the Pacific Northwest, with strengthening zonal flow anticipated downstream across the Central Rockies tonight. What does this all mean for us? Well, strengthening southerly winds as pressure falls overspread the Plains which will result in the northward lifting of a warm front over our region early Saturday morning. This will lead to noticeably warmer temperatures on Saturday with the gusty southwest winds as already alluded to above.
Saturday night upper level ridging will work into the region from the west bringing warmer air. As a result Sat night low temps will be warmer than tonight.
321 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 Warmer and generally rainfree conditions are anticipated through much of the short term period. High pressure will pull off to the east tonight/Saturday, allowing winds to become more southerly.