Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
207 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 An upper level ridge will remain over the area again today. An upper low will move across the northern Plains on Wednesday. The drier air mass will still be in place but with the cap weakening and lift from the front, there will likely be enough moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere for some scattered showers to develop along the front during the afternoon hours, generally east of Highway 65. Highs are Wednesday will again warm into the lower to upper 70s with the warmest conditions across south central MO where the front will move through later in the day.
Primary topic of interest near our forecast area today is the dryness of the surface air mass indicated by low relative humidities (25-35%) from dewpoint temperatures in the low 40s. Deterministic models remain consistent on driving this low pressure center through our forecast area on Wednesday. Initial precipitation onset appears to be late Tuesday night, early Wednesday morning as 850mb moisture transport ramps up within the surface warm sector downstream of the low pressure center with some good ol' fashioned isentropic lift. While current deterministic models depict the low traversing our forecast area, highest precipitation totals will depend on the actual track of the low pressure which will be ironed out as we get closer. 5" but are again highly dependent upon how the closed low shakes out.
1254 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) A closed upper low, currently over the Intermountain West region, will track east into the Central rockies by tomorrow. Lee trough will keep low level southerly flow intact, with low level moisture increasing tonight. Temperatures will be warmer tonight with overnight lows in the 50s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
Expect mild temperatures again Wednesday, but there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front sweeps across the region.
Gusts up to around 25 mph can be expected as momentum from the higher winds aloft transfers towards the surface. The high clouds will cause overnight low temperatures to remain well above normal (5-13 degrees F), generally in the lower 60s throughout much of the region.
Tight pressure gradient across ern OK/nwrn AR associated with deepening lee trough will result in southerly wind gusting to 25-30 mph today most sites.
Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to perhaps middle 70s again with lows tonight in the 40s. Leaned towards the lower end of guidance tonight as the NBM remains too warm due to its nightly warm bias.
A broad upper level trough covers northern Mexico and Texas this morning.
251 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure and upper ridging continued to provide quiet weather across central Indiana early thus morning. Warm advection will continue, but some high clouds will ride across the ridge.
Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as an upper ridge slides eastward across the region. Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday, with highs reaching the lower 80s across most of the forecast area. Low- level moisture will begin to increase over the western half of the area by Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching trough.
417 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 A weak surface front moved through the Keys yesterday, and has ushered in a cooler and drier air mass across the Florida Peninsula. A ridge of high pressure will continue to expand across the Eastern Seaboard and the Southeastern United States today and promote fair weather conditions across the Keys and the Southeastern U.
138 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure to the west slowly builds towards the area through Tuesday night, and then off the Southeast coast on Wednesday.
With the possibility of clearing in portions of central and northwest Nevada, have put patchy freezing fog in the weather grids in these areas. For Tuesday, the ridge axis will be overhead, bringing mainly sunny skies, light winds and quiet weather.
327 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 An area of low pressure crossing the region later tonight through Wednesday will bring much colder temperatures, decent rainfall, and perhaps some light accumulating snow. The cold front will bring much cooler air into the CWA with highs in the upper 40s, in north central SD, to the mid to upper 60s, over east central SD. A trough of low pressure currently over Utah will track into the area over the next 12 to 24 hours. With surface temps in the lower 30s, along with brief lift, snowfall amounts should range from a dusting to an inch or two on grassy areas.
338 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the region early this morning and will be quickly replaced by increasing mid and upper level southwesterly flow downstream from a compact upper level low that will move from northern California at press time to western Utah at 00Z and then lifting northeastward toward southern Wyoming overnight tonight. A subtle short wave trough over northern Sonora is progged to eject quickly eastward today and may produce some high- based showers later today as it interacts with mid level moisture over the western half of the forecast area.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 411 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Conditions over the next 36 hours are governed by broad upper ridging immediately downstream of a compact closed mid level circulation ejecting across the central conus.
This afternoon, we are seeing gusty south winds and a slight increase in upper level clouds as the upper ridge shifts to our east. This will force a cold front into the area by evening, but ahead of this we will see another warm and breezy day. Of additional concern is the westerly wind shift as the cold front moves into the area in the late afternoon/evening. Some light rain could also develop later overnight over northern parts of the area as the upper low ejects out over Nebraska.
208 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Latest observations and imagery show moisture and reflectivity returns over central Wyoming that continues to slowly expand northward, all still associated with the upper low that's now located over northern Utah. Vertz Mild weather expected in this period as upper ridging will be the dominate weather pattern.
317 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure and cooler weather triumphs through Wednesday.
345 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure still holds in place the eastern United States. Expect another great day for the Mid South today as well as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s this afternoon under sunny skies.
206 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure building into the region will help to decrease cloud cover through the morning, with warmer and drier weather returning today and Wednesday.
137 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather and slow warming through Wednesday.
308 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Ohio Valley will slide east through midweek.
High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the low/mid 60s.
1010 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 A cold front was working its way southeast through MN into the area this afternoon. Mostly sunny and dry conditions for Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains.
Otherwise, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the area. A warm front will begin to lift north late tonight.
Despite the high low level moisture trapped under the inversion will keep clouds over the area today, but conditions will remain dry as any shower activity will remain well south and west of the area. With a mild start to the day, temperatures will warmer with highs well into the 50s and even 60 across far southwest Missouri.
Boundary currently sitting to our south will move north of the mid-state on Wed as a warm front. A cold front is set to pass on Fri. Behind our passing cold front, late Fri will start a drying trend that will last through most of the weekend.
925 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2020 A cold front will bring rain and mountain snow tonight as it moves across the area.
219 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Western CONUS upper trough will eject east in the period, supporting a storm system over the Central Plains Wed-Thur. Moist BL combined with some wind shear through the inversion will likely support low clouds and a chance for freezing drizzle and fog late tonight into Wed morning. Main upper trough will eject into the central Plains Wed night, supporting increasing LSA over the region. Given fairly warm profiles with saturation occurring in the low levels warmer than -10C, a wintry mix would be expected over the NW 2/3 until appreciable CAA.
358 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 A weak upper level trough will move through the region today and tonight. This trough will bring the potential for rain, drizzle, and fog to the region. Precipitation totals are expected to be under a tenth of a inch and with temperatures expected above freezing, snow is not expected.
The northern stream trough/cold front will cross the region later this morning, but intrusion of drier air and disjointed upper support will keep rain chance low and any additional rain amount light. An addition of drizzle was made to the highest elevations for aftn and early eve given expectations of saturated, but capped upslope and increasing ambient subsidence. Weak, and brief cold advection will ensue as high pressure builds after FROPA, resulting in seasonable temperature tonight.
Have also tweaked forecast skies to cover the low clouds in Southwest Montana. mpj Expect drier conditions throughout the region with light winds and highs ranging in the 20s in north central Montana and the low 40s in parts of the southwest through Tuesday morning.
1124 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 The low stratus cloud deck cover may thin some tonight across portions of north central Nebraska as somewhat drier air filters into the area behind the cold front. The clouds and moist air will continue to keep temperatures below normal with highs most areas in the lower 40s.
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 High pressure will bring dry conditions, along with slightly warmer temperatures and some sunshine.
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a steady east wind, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the Florida Keys. A deep tropospheric anticyclone centered over the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico today will translate slowly eastward and offshore of the Florida Peninsula, with an extensive ridge axis reaching back across the State and well into the entire Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.
A northern stream impulse currently moving into the Great Lakes region will continue to break down ridging across the southeast with quasi-zonal mid level flow expected across the region. Substantial cloud cover and showers will bring cooler temperatures once again today with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
/issued 345 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/ High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will persist for the next couple of days.
The low pressure system along the northern California coast will maintain a mild southerly flow across Utah through Tuesday. This low pressure will slowly drift east into the Great Basin and bring the potential for widespread precipitation over Utah midweek. A low pressure system continues to spin off the California coast this evening.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 54 72 61 78 / 40 10 50 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 52 73 61 78 / 60 10 50 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 62 51 72 61 77 / 60 10 50 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 48 69 56 77 / 70 10 30 60 30.
At the surface, a cold front extended across the central Great Lakes to the Lower OH Valley. The cold front should cross the area through early this afternoon.
The northern stream trough/cold front will cross the region later this morning, but intrusion of drier air and disjointed upper support will keep light rain chance low. Weak, and brief cold advection will ensue as high pressure builds after FROPA, resulting in seasonable temperature tonight.
Increasing low level anticyclonic flow sets up this afternoon, with influence of low level thermal trough greatest this morning with some modification in 924/850 thermal profile this afternoon. Medium Low level waa/moist advection starts to ramp up later in the night as low level ridging heads east with surface/850 return flow setting up.
646 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 High pressure builds today under zonal flow, so it will be short- lived.
Activity aligned along a weakening warm front retreating northward across the area, and assisted by a weak mid-level disturbance within a southwesterly flow aloft.
Otherwise, deep layer high pressure will remain in control across the region through the end of the week. Some meager moisture will pivot through the area starting mid-week, as high pressure slowly slides off to the east.
High pressure may bring brief quiet conditions the Natural State this afternoon. Wednesday, upper flow will transition to SWrly as deep troughing moves towards the Rockies.
423 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 As the warm front moves north today and the stacked high over the gulf backs off to the SE, we will see the first real chance of rain with a few thunderstorms mixed in by afternoon. Fog should not be much of an issue for most areas this morning but as the warm front moves north and dissipates those bets will be off for tonight. Although, this could be in the form of low level stratus with a few showers as well as water temps warming into the low to mid 70s is not condusive to development at least over marine areas.
Tonight we may see a greater chance for stratus/fog to develop after midnight /EC/ Today through tonight: Subtropical ridging over the southeast CONUS continues to bring warm and humid weather to the ArkLaMiss region. Wouldn't rule out a strong storm along the Highway 84 corridor, especially given 30kt mid level flow and the potential for decent destabilization combined with substantial DCAPE helping to enhance wind gust potential.
Otherwise, deep boundary layer moisture ahead of an approaching cold front should yield areas of reduced visibility in fog. Improvements to visibility should then be expected by early aftn as a northern stream cold front crosses the region. Weak, and brief cold advection will ensue as high pressure builds after FROPA, resulting in seasonable temperature tonight.
Throughout Tuesday morning and afternoon, a weak cold front will move southward through Oklahoma and the boundary is still expected to settle relatively close to the Red River.
715 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 A weak upper level trough will move through the region today and tonight. This trough will bring the potential for rain, drizzle, and fog to the region. Precipitation totals are expected to be under a tenth of a inch and with temperatures expected above freezing, snow is not expected.
Today and Wednesday: Water vapor imagery shows a strong closed low system off the coast of California that is going to be the primary driver of our weather for the next few days. That trough over the West Coast will lead to southwest flow over the central Plains.
However, instability across S TX tonight is progged to be notably less than Mon night following the arrival of warmer 500 mb temps today, so strong and severe storms should align farther NW tonight near an upper jet max and more favorable mid-level lapse rates.
Despite the high low level moisture trapped under the inversion will keep clouds over the area today, but conditions will remain dry as any shower activity will remain well south and west of the area. With a mild start to the day, temperatures will warmer with highs well into the 50s and even 60 across far southwest Missouri. As main upper level low begins to pivot out of the desert southwest Wednesday, surface dew points will surge into the lower 60s across western Missouri and southeast Kansas, with most unstable capes reaching 1200 J/kg as surface warm front lifts through the area.
442 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Today through tonight: Subtropical ridging over the southeast CONUS continues to bring warm and humid weather to the ArkLaMiss region. Wouldn't rule out a strong storm along the Highway 84 corridor, especially given 30kt mid level flow and the potential for decent destabilization combined with substantial DCAPE helping to enhance wind gust potential.
1033 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 High pressure north of the area will maintain an onshore flow today, with sea breeze developing and moving inland. It will remain quite warm, with a little more sunshine expected today, and highs should reach the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s inland.
556 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 High pressure will bring dry conditions, along with slightly warmer temperatures and some sunshine. However, as the high pressure moves east tonight, the next weather system will begin to spread rain back into the area late tonight, continuing into Wednesday. High pressure will gradually move into central Illinois today and bring dry and seasonable temperatures to the area. As the high pressure moves east tonight, the first wave of the next weather system will move toward the area, spreading rain into west central Illinois late tonight.
807 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Latest RAP model has upper level ridging from western Cuba to the Deep South easing eastward today while Atlantic high pressure stretches across FL to the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures warm to the mid/uppers 80s but with the beaches slightly cooler. Atlantic high pressure reaches across the waters with a relaxed gradient.
Temperatures are yet another couple degrees warmer than last night with 30s across the area. Highs are currently forecast to be in the low to mid 40s.
349 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2020 The low pressure system along the northern California coast will maintain a mild southerly flow across Utah today. This low pressure will slowly drift east into the Great Basin and bring the potential for widespread precipitation over Utah midweek.
815 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Stout mid-upper ridging will remain prominent through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, northwestern Caribbean Sea, and Bahamas.
A high pressure ridge has become more established overnight across our forecast area. High pressure will shift eastward this afternoon. Return flow on the backside will help to draw in a warmer airmass as southerly breezes kick in. Temps in our northwestern zones could be at a critical level to pose a potential to see some pockets of freezing drizzle into early Wednesday.
Deep, cold closed low continues to move slowly south and is now off the coast of central California. The closed low will transition to an open wave today and accelerate toward SoCal and the Desert Southwest. The far southern portion of the forecast area may see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon as instability increases as the low pivots toward SoCal.
Western Montana and central Idaho remain under weak high pressure this morning, with an area of low pressure to our west along the California coast. As the low pressure system along the west coast digs and stretches this afternoon, it will send a weak wave of energy into central Idaho and southwest Montana. Elsewhere, temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler with light showers continuing near the Continental Divide.
531 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Western CONUS upper trough will eject east in the period, supporting a storm system over the Central Plains Wed-Thur. Moist BL combined with some wind shear through the inversion will likely support low clouds and a chance for freezing drizzle and fog late tonight into Wed morning. Main upper trough will eject into the central Plains Wed night, supporting increasing LSA over the region. Given fairly warm profiles with saturation occurring in the low levels warmer than -10C, a wintry mix would be expected over the NW 2/3 until appreciable CAA.
Scattered rain and snow showers are expected today with cooler temperatures.
One more day of mild weather can be expected today before a storm system enters the region bringing gusty winds, showers and cooler temperatures.
423 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 (Today and Tonight) Morning water vapor imagery depicts large upper level low spinning off the coast of California, with Pacific moisture streaming eastward across the southwestern U. The aforementioned upper low will progress eastward to northern Baja by Wednesday morning.
The flow aloft will be weak as the area is still under a col as the low we have been watching the past several days remains anchors off the California coast. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Through the day some energy will break off the low and start working into the Northern Rockies this evening and into Wednesday. There is a chance that there could be some freezing rain, especially Wednesday morning from Billings west. While temperatures will be below freezing through much of the column, temperatures are not cold enough to get enough ice. Amounts of freezing rain or snow is expected to be light.
Soundings suggest that much of tonight may end up being dry, with dry air linger in the lower levels. The drier low levels along with cooler surface temperatures could lead to light snow early in the day; however, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 30s and maybe even some low 40s by mid to late morning. This, along with warmer air moving in aloft, will allow the precipitation to transition to all rain.
Another cold morning under clear skies across the region with weak high pressure in place.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front across Southern Georgia, Central Alabama, Southern Mississippi, then back into Northeast Texas.
Dramatic weather improvements expected Wednesday, with the return of sunshine and much warmer temperatures.
High pressure ridge axis north of the area will continue an onshore flow across central Florida into mid-week. Lows will be mild overnight in the 60s, and highs will again be warmer than normal in the low 80s along the coast and mid to potentially upper 80s over the interior.
Models have been indicating some impacts in Southeast WA and the Lower ID Panhandle from it.
KLWS show the highest risk for local IFR conditions during the early morning hours due to fog and low ceilings.
15Z Surface analysis places a warm front from Southern Georgia/Alabama/Mississippi then into Louisiana and East/Northeast Texas. Otherwise, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the area. A warm front will begin to lift north late tonight.
351 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 High pressure will build into the area tonight and Wednesday bringing drier and cooler air.
1243 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 High pressure will bring dry conditions, along with slightly warmer temperatures and some sunshine. However, as the high pressure moves east tonight, the next weather system will begin to spread rain back into the area late tonight, continuing into Wednesday. High pressure will gradually move into central Illinois today and bring dry and seasonable temperatures to the area. As the high pressure moves east tonight, the first wave of the next weather system will move toward the area, spreading rain into west central Illinois late tonight.
This will allow an inverted trough to approach the Dakotas, with a warm front coming into the southern counties. A lot of variation on what actually reaches the ground, but there is some agreement on not much RH in the good dendritic growth zone, indicating drizzle or freezing drizzle potential. Think there will be the chance for some freezing drizzle tonight into tomorrow, but amounts will be very light and impacts uncertain due to road temps and how far warmer air moves northward.
253 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Through tomorrow: Subtropical ridging will remain centered across the Gulf of Mexico and into the southeast states with perturbed quasi-zonal flow across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on the poleward side of the ridge. Temperatures will climb into the low 80s area wide with wind gusts around 20- 25mph owing to respectable mixing.