Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and low temperatures in the low 70s. Overnight lows will also be seasonable and limited by dewpoints with lows expected to be in the lower 70s. Rising heights and limited convective coverage will lead to seasonable highs in the low 90s with lows overnight generally in the low to mid 70s.
These temperatures are on average some one to three degrees warmer than this time last night.
We're continuing to see bands of convection being forced as impulses and old MCVs work around the upper trough that is currently about have way across the forecast area. We'll need to maintain some PoPs until we're well onto the backside of the upper trough and being influenced by large scale subsidence as is occurring over the Dakotas.
A strong cold front will continue to move eastward through the region tonight. Expect a band of rain and thunderstorms to accompany the cold front. A strong cold front continues to move eastward through the region. Overnight lows will get cold along the Rocky Mountain Front and higher valleys of Southwest MT, with some locations going below freezing.
High pressure will shift eastward overnight as the upper level low that's currently producing severe weather up in the Midwest and Great Lakes slides NE. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with near normal overnight lows reaching the lower 70s and the chance of showers and a few storms starting tomorrow morning. With high pressure still off to our east, SW flow will continue to pull moisture into the region and allow for scattered showers/storms during the afternoon hours.
Southerly flow from the offshore Bermuda high pressure system will dominate the weather pattern from Monday through midweek. Dry weather is expected overnight with a weak mid/upper level trough shifting to the east of the area, along with diurnal stabilization taking hold with the aforementioned loss of daytime heating. Mid-level ridging will take over Monday, with rising low-level thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures. Highs should be a few degrees warmer relative to today, generally lower 90s.
Upper ridge axis over the area will weaken as another upper trough approaches the area Monday morning. Convection with this trough will not affect the area until after daybreak monday and most likely not until mid/late morning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 73 91 73 / 10 30 30 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 72 92 73 / 0 20 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 91 71 90 72 / 10 30 40 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 90 68 90 69 / 10 20 40 40 20.
1018 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 Convection had been limited to just north and west of the Lower Keys earlier this evening, however recent trends indicate a gradual increase in coverage in the Straits as well as late firing of the southwest Florida seabreeze front. With little change in the lower troposphere, mixed layer CAPES remained nearly the same but more buoyant in the effective layer. The western extension of the north Atlantic ridge remained across central Florida, albeit a bit fractured across the peninsula.
Tonight Through Tuesday An upper trough will move through Arkansas this afternoon and tonight. The next upper ridge in the Plains will move into Arkansas Monday and continue into Tuesday. With the upper trough moving through, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the north tonight. Ridging will move into the state in the morning. The highest heat indices will be in the eastern part of the area. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 90s and in the mid 90s on Tuesday. Lows tonight and Monday night will be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and low temperatures in the low 70s. Overnight lows will also be seasonable and limited by dewpoints with lows expected to be in the lower 70s. Rising heights and limited convective coverage will lead to seasonable highs in the low 90s with lows overnight generally in the low to mid 70s. Ridge continues to build Tuesday with heights above the climatological 90th percentile but expect a further increase in moisture with PWATs rising to around 1. Pressure ridge extending into the region from offshore. But mid level cap expected with ridging aloft should limit convection.
/issued 232 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021/ An elongated upper level ridge was spread across the far southern CONUS this afternoon leading to mostly zonal flow aloft. Broad upper level ridging will be firmly in place across much of the southern CONUS, stretching from the Desert Southwest all the way to Bermuda by Tuesday morning.
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Upper level low over Wisconsin is forecast to weaken and lift northeast by 12z Tuesday.
/Issued 1156 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021/ /Through Monday/ High pressure aloft and a continuous fetch of Gulf moisture will result in hot and humid weather early this week. /NEW/ /Tuesday onward/ Strong mid-level ridging will persist through the upcoming week, leading to continued hot and dry weather.
After that attention turns to a building ridge overhead. Temperatures are expected to climb into the lower 90s this afternoon with heat index readings around 105 in may locations.
Subtropical ridge remains along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to Texas today. Subsidence under the ridge and warm temperatures aloft capping the airmass will keep rain out of the forecast. The ridge shifts to the north into the southeastern states on Tuesday allowing moisture to deepen a little.
350 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 The forecast area will be under the western end of the Bermuda high and well south of an upper level short wave trough moving to the east-northeast from north-central Montana to southern Saskatchewan. By midweek, the the troughing over the midwest deepens and becomes more broad.
Currently, with the exception of some lingering cloud cover across the far eastern forecast zones, skies are smokey/sunny and temperatures are warming through the 70s and 80s, with a few locations along and west of the Missouri River valley nudging up into the low 90s. There is a system forecast to move from the Pac NW today through the northern plains tomorrow night, dragging a cold front through the region. However, as the system approaches and mid/upper level heights begin to fall and synoptic-scale UVM increases, there could be a few air parcels overcoming the capping inversion along the cold front across northeast South Dakota. It appears that beginning Tuesday and through the rest of the week, the upper level flow becomes northwesterly and mostly dry, as upper level ridging sets up over the western U.
A mid level trough was moving slowly across eastern Kansas this afternoon with a vorticity lobe moving into the base of the trough at 1930Z. Monday continues to look hot with weak ridging into the central Plains and thermal axis expanding northward across central and eastern Kansas. Tuesday may be just as hot for parts of the area, but a boundary and associated mid level wave will bring a chance of convection in the afternoon which would keep temperatures cooler and resulting heat indices below advisory levels, so will hold off for now extending the advisory into Tuesday.
An upper trough from the Plains will push through the area bringing more showers through Monday. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the low 90 with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s. High pressure starts to build into the area by Tuesday, so temperatures will begin to climb during the work week.
An expansive upper level ridge over Texas and the southern CONUS will remain in place today and tonight. Warm and humid conditions are expected tonight, generally clear skies and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s and overnight lows in low-mid 70s. Bermuda ridge extending west into the Carolinas. Upper level low now well northeast of the area along the Delmarva. Another upper trough lifting toward the Ohio Valley. So, appears mid and upper level ridging over the area today and trigger for convection appears limited. Temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday so went with low 90s. Another muggy night in the low to mid 70s.
The cloud cover and light southerly flow will make for a milder night as temperatures will bottom out in the lower 70s in most valley locations -- about 3-5 degrees warmer than last night. With high pressure still off to our east, SW flow will continue to pull moisture into the region and allow for scattered showers/storms during the afternoon hours. Temps for Monday and Tuesday will be near normal with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s/lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase tonight with an approaching trough. Otherwise, quiet and hot conditions are expected under high pressure through early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late evening west of Pittsburgh as a trough approaches. Precipitation chances will increase tonight into Tuesday as sly wind advects sufficient moisture into the area ahead of the crossing trough.
An upper level trough and the remains of a complex over western Kentucky at the moment will move across the area this afternoon and Monday night, providing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper ridge axis over the area will weaken as another upper trough approaches the area Monday morning. Convection with this trough will not affect the area until after daybreak monday and most likely not until mid/late morning. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 50 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 92 73 91 / 20 20 50 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 70 90 72 89 / 30 30 50 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 90 69 89 / 20 20 40 20 50.
247 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure passes overhead tonight, setting up offshore through the rest of the week. A cold front will approach the area this weekend. Should be another quiet night as high pressure continues to slide offshore. By this weekend, a weak cold front will move into the area, bringing with it an increase in rain chances. High pressure will remain just offshore Tuesday, and will continue to suppress most shower and thunderstorm development.
343 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Compared to yesterday, the ridge axis has shifted a bit farther north and retreated eastward just a bit. Light and rather uninteresting synoptic flow remains overhead with the ridge firmly in control, and likely to remain that way for the next few days at least. High pressure remains in control across the Florida peninsula, allowing scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to develop each day. /issued 151 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021/ With the ridge axis retreating slightly farther north and east, more dominant easterly flow is setting up across the peninsula today.
154 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 The weak upper ridging that was in place yesterday is now being suppressed south due to an upper low building over the western Great Lakes. With the increase in moisture, also expect to see an increase in cloud cover today, and for that reason kept toward the lower end of guidance for high temperatures today, peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Will see very similar conditions again on Tuesday, as the upper low lifts north into SE Ontario and southwesterly flow keeps the Gulf moisture around. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, in the low to mid 70s each night.
Besides the heat, storm chances return to the area as an approaching upper trough moves eastward across the northern Great Plains. Convection should initiate along a cold front draped across western Nebraska Monday afternoon, and push eastward through the evening before stalling out late Monday night into the overnight hours, generally west of Highway 81. Ahead of that cold front, heat is expected to linger closer to the NE/IA/MO border region where heat indices could reach 105 degrees.
Stout upper level ridging centered over the western Atlantic will be in firm control of the pattern Monday and Tuesday. A few strong storms could be possible during the afternoon with microbursts being the main threat; however, like the past few days subsidence from the upper ridge might be too much for storms to get enough vertical depth to produce a more severe downdraft. Temperatures will float around normal for this time of year with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
A small ridge/valley split has started to develop under mostly clear conditions with lows across the area ranging from the mid 70s on the ridges to the low 70s in the valleys. Cooler mid level temps on the back end of a mid/upper level trough have allowed for isolated showers further east, with a few as far west as extreme eastern KY. A progressive mid/upper level trough aiding convection over the mid Mississippi Valley late today will approach our area late Monday. The trough will be weakening as it heads east, and a modest east/west dew point gradient should be present. By the end of the week guidance shows a strong cold front as a closed low moves across Canada.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ High pressure aloft and a continuous fetch of Gulf moisture will result in hot and humid weather early this week. /Issued 316 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021/ /Monday Night Onward/ Broad ridging will continue to be in place from Texas to the far southeastern United States.
We'll be dealing with strengthening high pressure in the region, but it really isn't centered over the state, so afternoon highs should increase a couple of degrees each day and because the subsidence won't be strong enough to keep us rainfree, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Broad mid level ridging will provide subsidence across the region through the period.
323 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Aloft, upper troughs are noted near New York City, Chicago and and over Montana. Weak ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico and the northern Plains states. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Carolinas to the north central Gulf.
After nightfall, the maintenance of a tongue of moisture advection along/ahead of the incoming/passing trof will keep the shower/storm chance going, albeit perhaps waned some from the strength of the diurnal convection. Monday will be another convectively active day pops wise as the residual combo of high humidity, daytime warming, and still lingering energy passage from the primary long wave trof works together to heighten pops again. They seem to suggest some energy/moisture pooling just east and just west of us again, even as the aforementioned trof has departed to the east. Will prob try to suggest a dry period Monday night, in between the two trofs/associated pops.
151 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 With the ridge axis retreating slightly farther north and east, more dominant easterly flow is setting up across the peninsula today.
The eastern edge of the 850 mb thermal ridge now overspreads much of the region. Winds will remain gusty as the surface pressure gradient remains moderate with the passing trough to the north. The higher terrain will see convection first due to the addition of orographic lift, then later into the plains along convective outflows.
Rain chances will be minimized by the ridge building in behind today's trough. Mid level ridging will more or less be in control of conditions for the mid week period.
The upper high to the south will build back north over our area through Monday, bringing 500mb heights back up to 593dam and continuing the warming trend with above normal temperatures forecast areawide. Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon/evening across the southwest and south central mountains, but should increase in coverage and expand slightly further north Monday afternoon/evening as moisture creeps north under the upper high circulation.
Another reason includes the lingering clouds from this morning, keeping our temps cooler than anticipated and shielding the area from gaining any extra needed CAPE to get storms rolling this early afternoon. Morning lows will sit in the lower 70s ahead of the hottest day of the week as ridging develops over the Great Plains on Monday. While the forecast area will not be in the heart of the ridge center, surface to mid-level flow is expected to keep pulling in warm, moist air in from the south. While this may keep heat index values lower with the increased cloud cover, the humidity alone may allow heat index values to easily approach the lower 100s degrees F.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be increase tonight with an approaching trough. Otherwise, quiet hot weather is expected under high pressure through early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late evening as a trough approaches from the west and atmosphere destabilizes. Precipitation chances will continue tonight into Tuesday as sly wind advects sufficient moisture into the area ahead of the crossing trough. Forecast soundings suggest steepening lapse rates aloft as the trough digs through, promoting CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg.
Some models bring storms developing out to the west with the trough into the area late tonight into Tuesday morning as the elevated instability axis edges northeast ahead of the trough. Also, HREF guidance paints higher probs for fog development overnight under transient surface ridging across WI and this scenario looks reasonable with moist ground, light winds, and clearing skies.
A potent upper level closed low is currently situated over Montana and will track east, being the main driver of thunderstorm development across the northern plains tonight. At the surface, low pressure is becoming more defined across the western Dakotas this morning, with a tightening pressure gradient on the back side. Drier, cooler air follows for Tuesday.
We have a typical pattern for the short term with Atlantic surface ridging yielding onshore flow into Alabama from the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower 70s. As this happens, upper level ridging will build into the region. Temperatures on Monday are expected to reach into the lower 90s with humid conditions. Heat and humidity will headline much of the week ahead with daily high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees. Scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area at times overnight as an upper level trough moves through the region.
Dry into tonight with patchy fog again possible with very light winds and low temps in the low/mid 70s.
/issued 942 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021/ Wx map shows high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf. Temperatures in the lower to mid 80s this evening, not expecting temperatures to drop much more, with mid 70s north of I-10, upper 70s to near 80 along the I-10 corridor, and lower 80s along the coast. Temperatures are in the lower 90s, except under the thunderstorms where temperatures drop into the lower 80s.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s today and Tuesday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase tonight with an approaching trough. Quiet and hot conditions are expected under high pressure through early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late evening west of Pittsburgh as a trough approaches. Precipitation chances will increase tonight into Tuesday as sly wind advects sufficient moisture into the area ahead of the crossing trough.
Another hot and humid day is in store for South Texas as mid-level ridge dominates the weather. Persistent onshore flow at the surface will continue to draw in moisture to the lower levels. For tonight, another warm and humid night is in store, with lows ranging in the upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast.
A low pressure system continues slowly eastward across the area. A cold upper level low continues to move eastward through North-central MT this morning, bringing an area of more concentrated rain showers to locations along the Hi- Line. The lingering clouds and showers associated with the upper low will provide one more day of below normal temperatures, with highs mostly running in the 70s. Dry northwesterly flow aloft is expected for much of the work week as high pressure becomes established over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin.
High temperatures today will vary substantially across the region as the cold front slowly progresses east. Expect highs only in the upper 60s in the far northwest, while the southern James River Valley will have highs in the lower 90s. As the base of the trough begins to exit to our east on Tuesday, northwest flow settles in while another weak cold front approaches from across the International Border.
/issued 350 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021/ The forecast area will be under the western end of the Bermuda high and well south of an upper level short wave trough moving to the east-northeast from north-central Montana to southern Saskatchewan. By midweek, the the troughing over the midwest deepens and becomes more broad.
As high pressure again shifts east of the area, we will have a deeper monsoon flow pattern this week. We'll also be open for more inverted trough and easterly wave activity to focus storm coverage. The ridge east of the area will weaken around mid week as a broad trough through the northern and central plains tries to temporarily reverse the flow.
The weak upper ridging that was in place yesterday is now being suppressed south due to an upper low building over the western Great Lakes. With the increase in moisture, also expect to see an increase in cloud cover today, and for that reason kept toward the lower end of guidance for high temperatures today, peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Will see very similar conditions again on Tuesday, as the upper low lifts north into SE Ontario and southwesterly flow keeps the Gulf moisture around. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, in the low to mid 70s each night.
The parent upper-level trough that brought last night's cold front will slide eastward across the region today. The surface cold front becomes nearly stationary across southwest and south central Wyoming during the daytime hours, and the tightening pressure gradient leads to breezy west winds gusting to 35 mph throughout the afternoon and evening for locations from Unita to southern Fremont county. In northwest Wyoming and east of the Divide, winds will be lighter and RHs higher as cooler air filters in from the north. Given the cool air in place and clear skies Monday night into Tuesday morning, typical cold spots (such as Bondurant, Pinedale, and Marbleton) may flirt with temperatures near freezing.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ High pressure aloft and a continuous fetch of Gulf moisture will result in hot and humid weather early this week. /Issued 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021/ /Tuesday onward/ Strong mid-level ridging will persist through the upcoming week, leading to continued hot and dry weather.
/issued 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Broad mid level ridging will provide subsidence across the region through the period.
The upper level pattern features a trough to the north across the western Great Lakes. This trough extends southward into northern portions of the Tennessee River Valley. Continued heating today into the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s will lead to SBCAPE values near 3000 J/Kg later this afternoon. Will see very similar conditions again on Tuesday, as the upper low lifts north into SE Ontario and southwesterly flow keeps the Gulf moisture around. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, in the low to mid 70s each night.
336 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 2021 A mid-level low pressure trough was moving eastward across the northern Rockies early this morning. Subtropical moisture will remain well south of the area as high pressure extends across the southern U. The gradient aloft decreases Tuesday as the trough to the north pushes to the northern Plains. Our CWA will be on the fringe of a deep trough that will be centered over the central Plains. High pressure will start setting up though it will be very disjointed to start with. Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream up from the south but the higher pressure over us will keep the heavier precip over AZ and NM.