Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
404 AM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Positively tilted trough of the Pacific Coast had been feeding a weak AR into central Cali and the northern Rockies. which is the leading edge of the lower Rockies ridge. The piece of last week's storm will drop into base of the trough through early this week causing it to dig off the SoCal coast. The high peaks of the Park and Gore ranges will do the best otherwise at pass level and below to Steamboat area a 1 to 3 inch forecast seems the most probable outcome by sunrise on Tuesday. The moisture will be clearing out the the morning with only lingering showers over the highest divide mountains expected into the late morning hours.
632 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 An unseasonably strong mid and upper level low will wobble across the region through this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control through mid to late week. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
VFR conditions with passing high clouds will prevail at all sites thereafter as high pressure builds into the region. /Issued 251 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2019/ Remnant clouds across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas are expected to exit this morning as high pressure builds into the area.
In its wake, more zonal flow will develop in the mid/upper levels through Tuesday as a broad area of high pressure sets up over the southeast US.
However, model sounding show that the low level are very juicy and some of the models are continue to generate qpf. often times an indicator of freezing drizzle. Have decided to extend and expand the current winter weather advisory to account for freezing drizzle. Some spots may remain above freezing, and there is a possibility of this occurring in Pocatello City.
1038 AM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Positively tilted trough of the Pacific Coast had been feeding a weak AR into central Cali and the northern Rockies. which is the leading edge of the lower Rockies ridge. The piece of last week's storm will drop into base of the trough through early this week causing it to dig off the SoCal coast. The high peaks of the Park and Gore ranges will do the best otherwise at pass level and below to Steamboat area a 1 to 3 inch forecast seems the most probable outcome by sunrise on Tuesday. The moisture will be clearing out the the morning with only lingering showers over the highest divide mountains expected into the late morning hours.
Utah and southwest Wyoming are under weak high pressure in between a trough moving east across Idaho and Montana and another low off the California coast. As the Montana trough continues east, high pressure will strengthen over the forecast area for Tuesday.
Lows over most areas will be in the lower 30s. Upper level short wave energy and a dry surface cold front will then swing southeast across the area on Tuesday. We saw no reason to deviate from the model blend for temperatures with most areas peaking out in the lower or middle 50s.
There a number of smaller scale waves within the longer wave trough shifting southeast. Some weak isentroipic lift is seen in the low-levels /850 mb, 295K/, but omega profiles are lacking with eastward isentropic surface speed negating parcel motion up the surface /advection/.
Clouds will eventually clear from west to east as the longwave trof pushes eastward through early afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 40s with the return of sunshine across the entire Mid- South by late afternoon. /issued 452 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2019/ Cool and blustery day today, though not quite as windy as yesterday, as a deep upper low lifts from central Appalachia to the mid-Atlantic seaboard. GFS and NAM depict the 850mb thermal trof to translate east into middle TN today, with otherwise neutral instantaneous thermal advection from upstream in eastern MO. A Pacific surface pressure ridge will settle into the Midsouth tonight, under low amplitude midlevel ridging.
Upper level low has been steadily departing the region today, with high pressure building in behind it. Leaned to the warmer NBM guidance given the persistent cloudiness, and expect lows to drop into the mid to upper 20s most of the area.
1203 PM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Upper-level ridging is expected to dominate the flow pattern over the Mountain West and the High Plains for the next few days. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 20s to the upper 20s. Given more sunshine and good vertical mixing, temperatures will continue to increase with afternoon highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west.
It would seem the threat of freezing fog tonight is lower since the stratus deck is not clearing as guidance had suggested. May need to raise the low temps a bit too.
ERVIN The low pressure that brought us the rain/snow yesterday continues to slowly pull away from the region. Earlier, some isolated brief pockets of freezing drizzle were seen. Bridges and overpasses will be most susceptible. Today, the northwest winds will gradually subside as high pressure builds into the area. Tonight, nearly calm winds will become light out of the southwest as a weak trough of low pressure approaches from the northwest.
Planning on expanding the advisory this afternoon as model soundings are showing freezing drizzle developing in the wake of the snow. A split upper low continues to spin off the northern California coast. The northern branch trough will provide the more influential dynamics, while the southern stream provides most of the moisture. Temperature profiles this morning support some pockets of freezing rain in the Eastern Magic Valley, but ice accumulations should be light.
Weak high pressure will be over the area through Tuesday.
With the deep snowpack and lighter winds, temperatures were struggling to rise this morning, especially at Pierre and Mobridge. Heights aloft will rise again on Tuesday with a building ridge. This feature will support warmer sfc temps, though cannot rule out some low-level morning fog again across central SD. A couple of weak systems or fronts will move through that will either allow a modified Pacific airmass to maintain itself over the area or bring in a cooler, Canadian type airmass.
At the surface a weak pressure trough was centered over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the axis and surface confluence becoming more diffuse into North Dakota.
332 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 A large, deep upper level low (3 to 4 standard deviations below normal) is currently spinning over the Mid-Atlantic. A large area of clouds on the backside of the upper level low has blanketed the Ohio Valley, and visible satellite shows very little breaks in the stratus deck.
As a result, a relatively cooler day is expected across the forecast area.
Expect cooler temperatures to continue tonight, with lows in the 40s for most. Onshore flow will return Tuesday as high pressure shifts to the east.
Still, the flow aloft is progressive, and westerly flow is developing in the lowest 5000 ft this afternoon, and that is allowing the western edge of the cloud deck to begin shifting east.
245 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 A rather bromidic forecast is on tap through the weekend, w/WV imagery showing a large upper ridge covering the srn CONUS.
Have extended this chance through 18Z for these areas into this afternoon, although flurries should be relegated to the higher elevations as temperatures warm into the u30s to around 40 in valleys. In its wake, more zonal flow will develop in the mid/upper levels through Tuesday as a broad area of high pressure sets up over the southeast US.
Protected low lying areas in the Northwest Hill Country may fall to freezing. Farther south, downslope southwest to west winds will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 70s.
Tuesday the winds shifts back around out of the south and we warm up slightly into the low 70s.
Sfc ridging over Cntrl OK/TX this morning will gradually drift E into the region this afternoon/evening, with NW winds 6-10kts this afternoon becoming Lt/Vrb by 00Z. /This Afternoon/ NW flow aloft continues across the region this morning, in wake of the closed low that is drifting E into the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, the morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging over Cntrl OK/TX, which remains progged to continue drifting E into the region this afternoon/evening. Thus, NNW winds will begin to relax this afternoon as the ridge begins to build in.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a ridge of high pressure that extended from the western tip of Lake Superior south- southwest into the southern Plains. A cold front was located from western Manitoba southwest into the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings do show a pretty good dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere, thus we may only see flurries. The cold front/mid-level trough move through the rest of WI Tuesday morning with only a wind shift from southwest to west to mark their passage.
1118 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 High pressure will bring dry and fairly seasonable weather through much of the week.
1121 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 The winds have finally settled down as the low pressure system moves off to the east, but will be just high enough for wind chills this morning to dip into the teens.
245 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 The leading edge of a cold frontal zone continues to progress quickly southeast through the Straits of Florida, with dewpoints just beginning to roll back to the upper 60s.
Progged temps should dip down to the low 30s for most areas tonight and with some continued enhanced gradient winds the resultant wind chills will be mainly in the mid 20s (some teens possible in northern mtns).
This trough along with overall weak QG convergence will pass over the state on Tuesday with cross sections showing dry mid-levels.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Tranquil weather will prevail through the period with high pressure in control. Low temperatures tonight should range from the mid 40s across the northern ranchlands to the low to mid 50s near the coast. High pressure is expected to move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday allowing winds to shift back to the southeast.
Even with the cold advection, sufficient insolation and mixing should exist to allow temps to reach the low to mid 50s over the southwest half of the area; thus, forecast highs were adjusted upward as much as 5 degrees in some of these areas. /DL/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: The upper trough was just to the northeast of the area. Northwest flow was bringing much cooler and drier air into the region from Canada where values were in the teens and single digits. By late afternoon the center of the high will be moving into the area, so look for good radiational cooling tonight with lows around 30. Models have consistently shown cooler conditions to start the week.
Upper ridging will dominate today followed an upper trough moving across the northern CONUS slightly eroding the upper ridge late tonight into early tomorrow.
Dry northwest flow within broad upper ridging will keep conditions dry for the next several days.
Otherwise, a mid-level trough will dig across the area during the day, but it appears unlikely that we will see much more that some higher level cloudiness as the lower level airmass should remain rather dry.
Areas of dense fog/freezing fog have developed across the foothills of the Blue Mountains and across the Kittitas Valley. With temperatures below freezing, slick conditions are possible especially on bridges and overpasses. Additional fog/freezing fog will be possible tonight over much of the forecast area.
1012 AM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Upper ridging continues across the region this morning. A trough is expected to cross the CWA, with a switch to west/northwest winds later in the evening. The broad ridging setting up over the northern Plains will bring continued dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures.
103 PM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Upper-level ridging is expected to dominate the flow pattern over the Mountain West and the High Plains for the next few days. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 20s to the upper 20s. Given more sunshine and good vertical mixing, temperatures will continue to increase with afternoon highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west. The region is under northwest flow at the start of the period, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS.
1101 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Early morning analysis showed the weekend low pressure system well off to the southeast, with the only associated weather in the forecast area being some lingering cloud cover and occasional wind gusts near 20 mph. As ridging aloft and at the surface continues to build in, expect clouds to move out and winds to decrease substantially by mid-morning or so. However, temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night as southerly flow returns and leads to lows in the mid teens to mid 20s north to south across the area.
A narrow mid-upper ridge will shift southeast Tuesday before another northwest flow trough axis drops southeast through the MS valley Tuesday afternoon and into the TN valley Tuesday evening. This next trough will produce a brief period of mid-high clouds and no precipitation.
This is in response to strong low pressure moving ewd across nrn Manitoba and Hudson Bay through Tue nt. The swly winds will shift wly Tue afternoon over srn WI via a dry cold front passage. Broken middle to high clouds will overspread the area tnt and decrease Tue AM as the upper trough passes. The low level warm advection on Tue will boost temps into the middle 30s toward central WI and lower 40s from Madison to Milwaukee and swd.
1227 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 An unseasonably strong mid and upper level low will wobble across the region through this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control through mid to late week. More noticeably will be the strong, gusty winds throughout the day as the pressure gradient increases between the deepening low to the northeast and the high approaching from the southwest. With the upper low exiting the region and strong subsidence expected, skies should clear and allow for some radiational cooling.
/This Afternoon/ NW flow aloft continues across the region this morning, in wake of the closed low that is drifting E into the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, the morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging over Cntrl OK/TX, which remains progged to continue drifting E into the region this afternoon/evening. Thus, NNW winds will begin to relax this afternoon as the ridge begins to build in.
207 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Stratus/stratocumulus continues to march east as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Otherwise, a cold front will quickly sweep across Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon with winds shifting from the south to the west. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
High pressure will make a brief appearance later tonight and early Tuesday. However, a moisture starved H50 trof and weak surface trof will approach the region from the northwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. Even with the increased cloud cover, a southwest wind developing out ahead of the surface trof should result in a somewhat milder afternoon Tuesday with temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50.
High pressure rebuilds over the area Tuesday night, but clouds will be increasing ahead of the next Pacific system off the southern California coast.
Cold advection in the wake of this morning's cold frontal passage combined with clear skies will give east central Florida its coldest night so far this season. The differences really start to show up along the Space and Treasure Coasts with the 12Z ECMWF about 4 to 6 degrees warmer than the GFS likely due to the forecast dewpoints and winds staying higher (keeping the atmosphere more mixed). Current observations suggest the ECM has the better handle on the T/Td trends so temps along these southern coastal areas have been nudged only slightly upward, which keeps temps above the GFS but still cooler than the ECM.
341 PM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Upper-level ridging is expected to dominate the flow pattern over the Mountain West and the High Plains for the next few days. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 20s to the upper 20s. Given more sunshine and good vertical mixing, temperatures will continue to increase with afternoon highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west. The region is under northwest flow at the start of the period, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS.
There is the potential for more in Leadville, but the winds will be quite strong from the west-northwest, which is a downslope flow orientation, so much of the snowfall isn't expected to make it over the lower elevations of Lake County. Areas closer to the mountains over the plains will be warmer than the rest of the region, with some places only dipping down to the 40s. Tomorrow, temperatures will be cooler than today, but still above average.
734 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 High pressure will build in for Tuesday. However, better orographic forcing over the Laurels could result in another 1 or so over the higher ridge tops. Low level cold advection will result in overnight lows ranging from around 20F over the northern mountains, to around 30F in the Lower Susq Valley. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny over the eastern half of PA on Tuesday with downslope westerly flow of 10 to 14 kts that will gust up to the low 20 kt range.
Otherwise dry weather over most of the CWA through Weds other than over the higher mtns where some snow showers will occur overnight into Tuesday as a weak impulse and some increased moisture pass across, aided by orographics.
There have been reports of freezing rain in northwest Montana, the ground temps are below freezing, and the atmosphere is borderline cold enough to produce snow. We expect not only the precipitation to continue through Tuesday morning but freezing rain to mix with snow at times, especially along the Hwy 2 corridor.
506 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Stratus/stratocumulus continues to march east as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Otherwise, a cold front will quickly sweep across Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon with winds shifting from the south to the west. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Its already in the low to middle 30s across most of the Midsouth with morning lows expected to dip into the 20s. Looks dry and a bit warmer through midweek.
706 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Post frontal cold air advection combined with mainly clear skies and diminishing winds will make for a much colder night across the entire forecast area tonight with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s across the Nature coast counties where some patchy frost will be possible toward sunrise, especially in wind protected areas, with mid to upper 30s into central interior locations, and lower 40s across southwest Florida and along the immediate coast. Rough boating conditions with strong and gusty northwest winds with elevated seas will continue over the Gulf waters through midnight with slowly diminishing and subsiding winds and seas expected thereafter as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes as high pressure builds in over the northern Gulf through Tuesday.
We also will see slippery roads in some spots due to freezing fog. It would seem the threat of freezing fog tonight is lower since the stratus deck is not clearing as guidance had suggested. May need to raise the low temps a bit too.
322 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Short wave trough moving across our region was bringing some good lift across North Dakota and northern South Dakota this afternoon. Otherwise, warmer Pacific air was making it into our western cwa this afternoon and will continue to push east through the night. Although, the snow cover will have aged some along with temperatures around freezing making it more difficult to blow the snow.
340 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Weak trough working through the area leading to a wind shift from south to west. Gradient increases aloft behind the trough to produce low level wind shear through the night.
838 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 The high clouds streaming in on satellite are quite thin and won't add much insulation for temps for a while longer, so did some lowering of mins for tonight. A high pressure ridge will slide east of Lake Michigan by early Tuesday morning.
A weak cold front moving through tonight should be accompanied by a batch of midlevel clouds, presumably holding lows in the 20s. The front will be pulling mild air off a very large high pressure system across the cntl Rockies. The temperature forecast tonight leans on the cooler guidance blend. Nearly full sun is expected Tuesday and the temperature forecast uses the cooler deterministic model blend plus bias correction.
A weak trough will move over the area late tonight and early tomorrow morning, noticeable by a shift of winds to the northwest and a quickly moving scattered deck of clouds. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be about ten degrees warmer than today reaching the mid 50s across northeastern Kansas.
We'll see temperatures drop into the low 30s this evening with many locations within a few degrees of the freezing mark.
Short wave trough moving across our region was bringing some good lift across North Dakota and northern South Dakota this afternoon. Otherwise, warmer Pacific air was making it into our western cwa this afternoon and will continue to push east through the night. Although, the snow cover will have aged some along with temperatures around freezing making it more difficult to blow the snow.
/issued 253 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Tranquil weather will prevail through the period with high pressure in control. Low temperatures tonight should range from the mid 40s across the northern ranchlands to the low to mid 50s near the coast. High pressure is expected to move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday allowing winds to shift back to the southeast.
The forecast area remains dry as the big upper level system continues to blast the northeast and a ridge pattern builds over the Rockies and moves towards the Central Plains.
SCT to BKN clouds aoa 5 kft will develop through the day with the highest chance of BKN VFR cigs at northern terminals.
523 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Short wave trough moving across our region was bringing some good lift across North Dakota and northern South Dakota this afternoon. Otherwise, warmer Pacific air was making it into our western cwa this afternoon and will continue to push east through the night. Although, the snow cover will have aged some along with temperatures around freezing making it more difficult to blow the snow.
Tomorrow a upper level trough moving through the Upper Midwest will sink a cold front through the area however, with no cold air behind it, the mixing it will provide will help temperatures rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
534 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Weak trough working through the area leading to a wind shift from south to west. Gradient increases aloft behind the trough to produce low level wind shear through the night.
The High Wind Warning for the area remains in effect until 5 pm. A broad upper ridge over the area will remain in place until late in the weekend.