Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will arrive from the north during the afternoon, accompanied by rain across Baker County and into the West Central ID Mountains. Rain showers around KBKE/KMYL Friday afternoon with cold front, causing local MVFR and mountain obscurations. Surface winds: SW to SE 5-15 kt, shifting W to NW with cold front after 21z/Fri.
138 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A low pressure system will impact the region through tomorrow.
Dominating large scale feature at the moment is a large upper low centered over the OH/TN valley.
A perusal of the model and MOS output for this afternoon is pretty consistent with low 60s across the lower Plains counties east of highway 283. Warmer mid to upper 60s - maybe even around 70 degrees is possible farther west near Liberal and Elkhart this afternoon. Overall there is not alot of evidence from the models for any decent size areas of sub freezing temperatures, outside of possibly some low lying valley areas that pool colder/denser air locally. A better fetch of higher terrain air moving down terrain will lead to more adiabatic warming over the area Saturday and warmer temperatures in the 70s area-wide.
Strong winds will decrease after sunset this evening and become light by Friday morning as the upper ridge extends east of the Rockies and across the High Plains tonight and Friday with an area of high pressure at the surface. With light winds expected in the high under clear skies, there is a potential for a portion of the region to see areas of frost and a light freeze as temperatures drop to around freezing. Daytime temperatures warm on Friday and Saturday with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s on Saturday as a surface lee trough deepens in response to the westerly flow sagging southward over the Rockies ahead of a cold front that moves through the region Saturday night.
252 AM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A strong storm system is crossing the southeast CONUS while upper ridging is building across the central CONUS. The ridge axis moved into the eastern Dakotas earlier tonight, with upper flow becoming southwesterly over the NE WY and far western SD. An upper trough across Canada will push south into MT/ND. A strong cold front will cross the area Saturday morning, bringing gusty NW winds and more seasonable temperatures.
516 AM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Most of the low to mid level clouds that persisted near Eagle and Aspen as well as Hayden and Steamboat Springs finally lifted earlier this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in while some midlevel warm air advection takes place. For those of you that saw the clouds yesterday, high temps should run about 10 degrees warmer than what you saw yesterday. The ridge will get flattened Saturday as a trough moves across the Northern Rockies but any precip associated with the trough will stay well to our north. High temperatures will be very similar to those seen today, maybe a bit warmer but nothing considerable.
425 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 High pressure slowly sliding off to our east will bring pleasant and warm conditions with temperatures pushing a bit above normal this afternoon across central and western Nebraska to close out the workweek. For Saturday, a broad trof moving across Canada will push a cold front through the area. Moisture with the front is very limited so expect a dry passage with a bit of cloudiness, but the low level flow will increase from the northwest and generate blustery conditions by Saturday afternoon as cooler air moves in.
Winds will decrease late this afternoon as the upper low currently centered near NE Arkansas moves farther east. The upper low will continue to move to the east, and the pressure gradient will relax some later this afternoon. We would expect cooler temperatures with clear skies and generally light winds most areas; however, this surface flow will help moderate temperatures some near the New Mexico border. GKendrick Upper level high pressure across the southwestern U.
Satellite imagery shows clouds slowly diminishing over the higher terrain as dry air erodes out the residual low level moisture. A mild and dry late October day is in store as an upper level ridge builds into the region. Areas of the Palmer Ridge may see gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon with gusts to 25 mph possible over the higher mountain ridges. Cold front pushes south across eastern Colorado Saturday morning.
These winds will finally relax by this evening as high pressure begins to settle across the region.
401 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 (Issued 401 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021) Today and Tonight: Low pressure currently centered over western Kentucky will slowly track eastward through the Ohio River Valley today. The closed upper level low associated with this low pressure system will continue to stream positive vorticity advection across southeast Wisconsin into tonight providing a source of lift for rain. As the 500mb trough axis and positive vorticity advection slowly shifts east, rain will become more focused across far southeast Wisconsin through the overnight hours. Northeast winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph are expected throughout the day with the highest gusts along Lake Michigan.
1051 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 An upper level trough will affect much of the Eastern Seaboard today and into the weekend with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. Upper low remains centered to the NW of the forecast area, over the TN Valley. While drier air has wrapped around this low into our forecast area, moisture remains in place below 10kft, leading to mostly cloudy skies this morning. High temperatures today a few degrees below normal under the lower heights and cloud cover with highs in the 60s once again.
High pressure will maintain dry and mild conditions across the region through Saturday.
538 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A large upper level low spinning across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley region early this morning will will translate slowly east today and tonight with ridging attempting to work in from the north and west by tonight. As the low pulls away, drying in the mid-levels from the west will put an end to any lingering showers/drizzle this morning. This suggests clouds may be quite stubborn and with the ridge axis holding just to the northwest tonight, widespread clearing may be too optimistic for much of the area.
Early this morning the upper low was centered over the Missouri Bootheel while an upstream ridge was located over the western states. Light rain will continue over east central Kansas this morning before exiting by early afternoon as the upper low moves off to the east. Winds will gradually decrease later this afternoon, then be replaced by a high pressure ridge tonight. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 30s with the coldest readings along the Nebraska border.
634 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Large upper low over mid-MS valley will continue to move very slowly eastward today.
319 AM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Most of the low to mid level clouds that persisted near Eagle and Aspen as well as Hayden and Steamboat Springs finally lifted earlier this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in while some midlevel warm air advection takes place. For those of you that saw the clouds yesterday, high temps should run about 10 degrees warmer than what you saw yesterday. The ridge will get flattened Saturday as a trough moves across the Northern Rockies but any precip associated with the trough will stay well to our north. High temperatures will be very similar to those seen today, maybe a bit warmer but nothing considerable.
/Issued 213 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ Large low pressure system centered over the Lower-Mississippi Valley will slide east across TN thru the day today.
Anticipate winds to become somewhat gusty across forecast area this morning as the lower atmosphere mixes. A trough associated with this low will move east across area early this morning, with a line of showers associated ahead of it. A series of troughs will pivot east southeast across area through Tonight, the strongest of which will pass through overnight Tonight. With these troughs moving through the chance for showers will continue through Tonight. Noticeably cooler air will advect into region Today, and remain this period. Highs Saturday will trend a little cooler than Today.
621 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area this morning will move slowly eastward into the Tennessee Valley area today. As high pressure settles southward across the area tonight, clear skies and light winds will promote areas of frost across much of the area and a frost advisory will be hoisted.
/issued 426 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a large closed upper low centered over the Midsouth. A midlevel dry slot over the northern Gulf of Mexico, Georgia and the Carolinas had wrapped by into and around the inner periphery of the upper low. Over the course of today, the upper low will lift to east TN/north GA, with wrap-around rain showers and northwesterly surface winds across the Midsouth. Drier air associated with a southern plains ridge will edge eastward, diminishing measurable rain chances over east AR late tonight.
256 AM PDT Fri Oct 29 2021 High pressure will relax and onshore flow will develop to bring a cooling trend and a return of coastal clouds and fog.
/Issued 429 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ Vertically-stacked/closed low pressure system currently centered around the TN/MS/AL border will continue to drift east through the day. A rather raw day expected across much of the area today with the approaching low pressure system. Higher-res models showing an upr lvl wave/impulse diving down the backside of the trough on Saturday which should support scattered showers. 83 In the wake of the short term upper low, zonal flow sets up over the southern US.
637 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Dry and mild conditions will continue through Saturday, with upper ridge over the northern Plains today, shifting southeast as a sharp mid-upper wave and associated cold front push into the region on Saturday. Residual low level moisture from recent rains and the aforementioned stratus could result in shallow fog across this area late tonight into early Saturday, though HREF probabilities of visibility below 2SM is on the low side, so do not expect any significant issues. Did also hedge toward the cooler side of guidance in the area with the lightest winds, with favorable radiational cooling conditions. This should yield highs upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front, but strong post-frontal cold advection works into our western counties by 18Z.
831 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 An upper low was centered over the HUN CWA this morning and can be observed via radar and satellite imagery. It will be difficult to time breaks in the precipitation today as additional bands on the west side of the low rotate south and southeast into the area. In fact, atop the highest elevations of Lookout Mtn, temperatures may stay just below 50 all day. Overnight lows will range form the mid 40s to the low 50s. Upper level heights will continue to climb on Saturday as the center of the low moves into the Mid-Atlantic. These locations in the southern Cumberland Plateau will have an upslope component to the low-level wind field that could keep chances for light showers going throughout the day on Saturday.
426 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a large closed upper low centered over the Midsouth. A midlevel dry slot over the northern Gulf of Mexico, Georgia and the Carolinas had wrapped by into and around the inner periphery of the upper low. Over the course of today, the upper low will lift to east TN/north GA, with wrap-around rain showers and northwesterly surface winds across the Midsouth. Drier air associated with a southern plains ridge will edge eastward, diminishing measurable rain chances over east AR late tonight.
Closed upper low continues to spin over the region early this morning, and this low will take at least into Saturday night before exiting completely.
649 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Showers will continue today ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest. The threat for showers continues Saturday when the low tracks to Western Pennsylvania.
North to northwest winds will also continue, but will be much lighter than yesterday as the upper low continues to depart to the east. Eastern areas could dip to the low 30s, but widespread freezing temperatures are not expected, therefore no freeze headlines will be issued on this shift. High temperatures are expected to reach the 60s to low 70s ahead of a passing cold front. This wind, and some increasing cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures above freezing for most of the area Saturday night.
High pressure will bring warmer temperatures today. A ridge of high pressure aloft will result in a few more degrees of warming today with highs peaking well above normal for this time of year.
1010 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Showers will continue today ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest. The threat for showers continues Saturday when the low tracks to Western Pennsylvania.
Cooler Weather on Tap Starting Tonight. A large low pressure system over the Southeast US will pivot eastward through the day today, with its southern portion dragging across the northern Florida peninsula. Locally, a tight pressure gradient, with yesterday's cold front now well south of the area, will lead to breezy conditions across east central Florida today. Will keep shower chances through the overnight hours, due to wrap around moisture on the back side of the low, fueled by daytime heating and increasing PVA.
646 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 High pressure slowly sliding off to our east will bring pleasant and warm conditions with temperatures pushing a bit above normal this afternoon across central and western Nebraska to close out the workweek. For Saturday, a broad trof moving across Canada will push a cold front through the area. Moisture with the front is very limited so expect a dry passage with a bit of cloudiness, but the low level flow will increase from the northwest and generate blustery conditions by Saturday afternoon as cooler air moves in.
High pressure will deliver dry conditions and warmer temperatures to northern Arizona through Saturday.
The line of convection has now passed across the Keys and is draped between Carysfort Reef Light and the offshore Straits of Florida south of the Lower Keys. Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low associated with this cold front currently residing over the Tennessee River Valley and slowly drifting to the east. Drier air will begin to filter into the area through the day after the cold front exits the area. As the upper low continues to trek across the eastern United States over the next day or so, the gradient across the region will remain tightened. As the low starts to move in a more northeastward direction and begins to weaken, the gradient will relax starting Saturday night.
734 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 An upper level trough will affect much of the Eastern Seaboard today and into the weekend with temperatures remaining slightly below normal.
423 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 High pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft will keep the region dry and relatively warm today. A dry cold front will sweep through from northwest to southeast late tonight into Saturday morning. The upper ridge will also collapse by afternoon as an upper trough digs in from Canada. An upper trough moves across the northern plains to start the period out, and deepens into a broad upper low over the eastern CONUS.
An approaching trough off the coast is splitting as it moves onshore today. The northern part is currently pushing a cold front across the forecast area while the southern part will form a closed low off the coast of northern California. The northern portion of the trough will impact the forecast area today as it pushes a cold front through the region and produces some rain as well as some high mountain snow. Temperatures today will run 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday and overnight lows will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler.
714 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Widespread rain will transition to scattered showers this weekend as low pressure slowly traverses the region. By tonight, rainfall will give way to scattered and light shower activity as the low digs over the Virginias and drops convective temperature via cooling mid levels. Ensemble guidance showing high probability that broad troughing will set up across the eastern half of the US through much week. Periodic restrictions and showers can be expected for the weekend as an upper low slowly transitions over the region.
455 AM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A strong storm system is crossing the southeast CONUS while upper ridging is building across the central CONUS. The ridge axis moved into the eastern Dakotas earlier tonight, with upper flow becoming southwesterly over the NE WY and far western SD. An upper trough across Canada will push south into MT/ND. A strong cold front will cross the area Saturday morning, bringing gusty NW winds and more seasonable temperatures.
618 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 High pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft will keep the region dry and relatively warm today. A dry cold front will sweep through from northwest to southeast late tonight into Saturday morning. The upper ridge will also collapse by afternoon as an upper trough digs in from Canada. An upper trough moves across the northern plains to start the period out, and deepens into a broad upper low over the eastern CONUS.
High pressure will continue to bring light winds and sunny skies to the area today. Satellite imagery this morning shows ridging over the southwestern United States. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s for the most part.
1010 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Deep low pressure dominates the eastern United States this morning, with the associated frontal boundary now in the eastern Straits of Florida. A substantial pressure trough, evident in some of this morning's numerical guidance, is noted across the middle and upper Keys. West winds have increased to near and just above 15 knots across our western waters, and gusts over the Lower Keys are nearing 20 mph. Seas have been measured near 3 feet from the southwest at Satan Shoal, with a 12 foot sea with 10 second period in the offshore Gulf waters at Pulley Ridge.
Neutral to weak cold air advection and cloud cover will hold temperatures in the lower to mid 50s with lower 60s in the southeast. The upper low will gradually work eastward through the overnight hours, and northwesterly flow will support morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wrap around moisture will continue to produce cloud cover and the opportunity for light showers in the northeast through tomorrow afternoon, but some improvement will begin later in the day as the low pulls further away and dry air moves back into the region. Highs will be a few degrees warmer due to less rain and the reintroduction of weak warm air advection.
236 PM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A cold front will bring an increasing chance for rain and snow to the plains and valleys later today and overnight, bringing areas light accumulating snowfall to the plains as winds shift more northerly and decrease. Surface cold front extends largely east-west across north-central Montana this afternoon, and will continue to slowly move south toward the Great Falls area late this afternoon into this evening. Despite decreasing cloud cover especially over north-central Montana by Saturday night, temperatures will drop well below freezing into the teens and 20s, resulting in freezing of any leftover moisture on roads or other travel surfaces.
1250 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Dry and mild conditions will continue through Saturday, with upper ridge over the northern Plains today, shifting southeast as a sharp mid-upper wave and associated cold front push into the region on Saturday. Residual low level moisture from recent rains and the aforementioned stratus could result in shallow fog across this area late tonight into early Saturday, though HREF probabilities of visibility below 2SM is on the low side, so do not expect any significant issues. Did also hedge toward the cooler side of guidance in the area with the lightest winds, with favorable radiational cooling conditions. This should yield highs upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front, but strong post-frontal cold advection works into our western counties by 18Z.
There could be a short break in the rain later today across the southwest half of the area but more showers will likely move into western sections later tonight on the backside of the upper low as it moves into western North Carolina. Tonight as the system begins to shift east tonight snow levels could fall enough for rain and snow at the highest elevations of the Smokies tonight. Upper level low moving slowly east today and tonight across east Tennessee into western North Carolina late tonight.
1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area this morning will move slowly eastward into the Tennessee Valley area today. As high pressure settles southward across the area tonight, clear skies and light winds will promote areas of frost across much of the area and a frost advisory will be hoisted.
A cold front brings cloud cover to the area for Saturday, along with a slight chance for light showers across the northern Red River Valley.
233 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 As the strong upper level low responsible for our recent cool down continues to track east across the SE CONUS, progressive low amplitude ridging will overspread our region from the west for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Though we'll wake to seasonably cool temperatures tomorrow morning, highs will warm into the low to mid 80s again for many spots, due to the aforementioned H50 rises, ample sunshine, and light southwesterly surface winds. Weak upper level ridging will be in the process of flattening on Saturday night as progressive upper troughing sweeps across southern Canada.
A cold front associated with that energy will cruise east over the forecast area tonight and Saturday morning.
Still though, the morning visible satellite imagery depicts an extensive area of wrap-around cu/stratocu cigs extending from Ern OK/extreme Ern TX E across our region and into the Lower MS Valley/SE CONUS, which remain progged to linger through much of the day before slowly eroding from the W this evening and overnight as the closed low and attendant upper trough drifts farther E into the Appalations and Gulf Coast states this evening. The area VAD's indicate H850 winds still humming between 35-45kts on the backside of the closed low, with mixing already contributing to gusts of 30-40 mph across portions of E TX, especially where the wrap-around cu has not filled in from a JDD to TYR to OCH line.
Model solutions bring a decent bout of more steady rainfall across our southwestern zones late tonight on the backside of the upper low (wrap around moisture). Flight conditions in general will worsen through the period as the low pressure system drifts through the region in a wobbling fashion.
High pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft will keep the region dry and relatively warm today. A dry cold front will sweep through from northwest to southeast late tonight into Saturday morning. The upper ridge will also collapse by afternoon as an upper trough digs in from Canada. An upper trough moves across the northern plains to start the period out, and deepens into a broad upper low over the eastern CONUS.
Broad high pressure is in place over the desert southwest, with a strong storm system downstream across eastern states. We'll keep daytime highs several degrees above average into the weekend before the lower latitude flow buckles into a zonal flow to start the week. Latest Nov 6-11 5 day height anomalies are solidly positive suggesting significant ridging possible with above average temps (possibly well above average), starting the pattern change early in the second week of November.
128 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A large gyre of an upper low was centered over eastern middle TN. Water vapor imagery shows several spokes of vorticity rotating around the low.