Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
608 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure to the north feeding dry air into the region will allow for temperatures to fall quite a bit tonight, with lows again in the 50s to around 60. Winds will increase a tad Tuesday night as well ahead of an approaching trough.
There is a chance of showers/slight chance of thunderstorms from near Burns to Baker City and McCall along a cold front Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ Today thru D3 Slightly "cooler" temperatures this afternoon due to the MCS that moved through last night. Instead of yesterday's heat indices that spiked in some locations to 110, current HI's are in the lower 90s to lower 100s. If it falls near the higher end of that range, issuance of a Heat Advisory will be considered.
651 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front will approach the region by the middle of this week. Ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west, southwest winds should help hold temperatures in the 70s overnight. Tuesday: A cold front will approach the region in the afternoon hours. High temperatures Tuesday will reach into the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast, with upper 60s inland to low 70s at the coast overnight.
1032 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Currently - Deep layered troughing over the Atlantic states reaches down towards the eastern gulf states. Meanwhile, an Atlantic ridge extends westwards across the Central Bahamas and Cuba. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the surface through lower level ridge will nudge a bit northward and likely will shift the zone of best confluence north. A ridge across Cuba will nudge northwards a bit through the overnight period.
Thus with the lower confidence have decided to keep the chances isolated, however the environment will be favorable for a storm to sustain itself, sfc dewpoints will be around 50 to 60 degrees and CAPE values will be around 1600 to 2500 J/kg, with highest values across western Nebraska. As for high temperatures tomorrow, did trend towards the warmer guidance, 850 temps will be around 26 to 32 degrees celsius, which will have sfc temps in the upper 90s.
949 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front will approach the region by the middle of this week. Ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west, southwest winds should help hold temperatures in the 70s overnight. Tuesday: A cold front will approach the region in the afternoon hours. High temperatures Tuesday will reach into the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast, with upper 60s inland to low 70s at the coast overnight.
The upper low will move through on Tuesday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the rest of the week with dry weather and cooler temperatures. The next wave with showers and a few storms will push through nw to se tomorrow as the main upper low tracks across the region. Skies and rain showers clear out tomorrow night as high pressure begins to move in. Cooler temperatures are also expected as lows will drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. High pressure will be in place for the short term period.
1050 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Cold front and associated showers will push south of the region tonight. The weather pattern will dry out for midweek with noticeably cooler nights and less humidity.
A strong ridge, centered over the Rockies and High Plains, remains of much of the region.
322 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Strong upper ridge is bringing record heat and mainly dry weather to the area today, and will do so again Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure over central Canada is contributing to low-level flow that is bringing in moisture to southeast MT. This low-level moisture combined with the hot temperatures is contributing to appreciable instability over southeast MT. A weak disturbance moving along the edge of the ridge could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. The greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms is over the higher terrain and central zones. The last time Billings reached 105 degrees or higher was in July 2005, when Billings reached 106 degrees for the high temperature. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night and bring some relief from the heat.
739 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows an amplified mid-upper level pattern over the CONUS with a trough over the eastern Pacific and West Coast, ridging over the Intermountain West and Western Plains and a broad trough into the Great Lakes and ne CONUS. P early this afternoon, where dew points are highest (in the lower to mid 50s). Under mostly sunny skies and mixing to near 5 kft, max temps well inland from Lake Superior should get into the lower 70s.
High pressure to the north feeding dry air into the region will allow for temperatures to fall quite a bit tonight, with lows again in the 50s to around 60. Winds will increase a tad Tuesday night as well ahead of an approaching trough.
/issued 234 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): A strong 500mb ridge over the Four Corners region will be the main influence for the weather across Deep South Texas through the short term period. As far as temperatures, the increase in low-level moisture and cloud cover will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday a touch cooler compared to today, but still very warm, with highs expected to reach the low-mid 90s in most spots; western parts of the CWFA will still likely hit the upper 90s to near 100F.
605 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 An upper level ridge was centered over AZ, CO and NM with an upper level trough centered over MI and NY. A weakening, dry cold front extends from OH west through northern MO.
Cold front pushing south across Illinois and Indiana this afternoon is evident mainly in the sfc wind fields, with a decent post-frontal northerly wind surge. Progged low-level thicknesses and H8 temps support max temps as much as 10 degrees cooler than today in some spots.
Temperatures will be the main issue for the period with upper ridging and very quiet conditions. The upper ridge continues to amplify over the Rockies and western Plains, with much of the region seeing clear skies. The light winds and clear skies overnight should allow temps to fall into the lower 50s, and easterly fetch to the wind will actually bring some weak cool air advection tomorrow as the highest upper heights remain centered to our west. Upper ridging over the Northern Plains will flatten as an upper low develops into central Canada.
12z SGF sounding showed the resultant dry air in the low to mid levels.
Light winds and radiational cooling will drop temps into the lower to middle 50s for most of the area by sunrise Tue. Temps will range from the lower 70s near Lake MI to the lower 80s over south central WI. High pressure that is currently over south central Canada will finally arrive over srn WI for Tue nt-Wed eve.
623 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Currently have upper ridge centered over the Southern Rockies/Desert Southwest with upper troughing over the Eastern Great Lakes Region. At the surface, high is centered over Northeast OK with return flow across the High Plains. Not much is expected to change for tonight into Tue with upper ridging remaining over the Four Corners region. Wed and Thu continue to look like the hottest through this forecast package as the upper ridge remains planted over the Four Four Corners region. This feature will push a weak cold front across the Northern Plains. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front is expected to stretch generally along the KS-NE border and will sink south into the forecast area Fri night into Sat morning.
Northerly flow around high pressure over James Bay and northern Ontario will bring cooler and less humid air to central Indiana for the short term. Several waves will drop southeast across central Indiana moving in between a northern Quebec upper low and high amplitude Rockies and northern Plains ridge. There they have held on in the lower 60s. Otherwise, look for near seasonable temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and comfortable humidity levels.
No weather concerns this evening with high pressure centered over Manitoba and a highly-amplified upper-level ridge axis extending from Saskatchewan to the Four Corners region. Maybe a few clouds west where lows will be in the lower 60s, compared to clear skies east with lows in the lower 50s. Upper ridging slides east and becomes centered over the Dakotas on Tuesday, with a potent thermal ridge of 850 mb temperatures over 30 C just to our west across the Northern Rockies. Warmest temperatures should stay outside of the forecast areas, with highs across the forecast area from the lower 90s west to mid 80s east.
Short term looking quiet weather wise with cooler temperatures and very comfortable humidity levels. A secondary weak cold front will work its way across the region from north to south late this afternoon and early this evening. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the lower half of the 60s each night, and would not be surprised to see some mid or upper 50s in normally colder/sheltered locations.
611 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Thunderstorms will end over southern portions of the area this evening as a cold front exits the region Another crossing disturbance will maintain lower shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday.
412 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 An upper level ridge was centered over AZ, CO and NM with an upper level trough centered over MI and NY. A weakening, dry cold front extends from OH west through northern MO.
STP Strong upper ridge is bringing record heat and mainly dry weather to the area today, and will do so again Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure over central Canada is contributing to low-level flow that is bringing in moisture to southeast MT. This low-level moisture combined with the hot temperatures is contributing to appreciable instability over southeast MT. A weak disturbance moving along the edge of the ridge could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. The greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms is over the higher terrain and central zones. The last time Billings reached 105 degrees or higher was in July 2005, when Billings reached 106 degrees for the high temperature. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night and bring some relief from the heat.
838 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Quiet night ahead with clear to partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures.
912 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front is passing through the CWA at this hour, with low 50s dewpoints already working into our northern CWA behind the boundary. Cold front pushing south across Illinois and Indiana this afternoon is evident mainly in the sfc wind fields, with a decent post-frontal northerly wind surge. Progged low-level thicknesses and H8 temps support max temps as much as 10 degrees cooler than today in some spots.
An upper level trough offshore will eject northeastward tonight, followed by building high pressure and warmer interior temperatures for the rest of the week. Significant warming is forecast for the interior toward the latter portion of the week as an upper ridge over the 4-corners region expands westward over NW California.
00Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level ridge axis over the Rockies and Plains while upper level troughs are situated over both the East and West Coasts of the United States. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak back door cold front extends from the Northern Plains back through Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley and Pennsylvania. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the upper 70s to middle 80s after highs in the lower to middle 90s this afternoon. Latest short term trends suggest the aforementioned back door cold front will drop southwest into the Mid-South overnight into Tuesday morning. Some upper level ridging and other features to the east will lead to northerly mid level flow across the area.
919 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. High pressure and dry weather will then build into the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week. Another reinforcing cold front slides southeast out of the Great Lakes states Tuesday. Highs will reach into the upper 70s during the day, with temperatures retreating into the low to mid 50s Tuesday night. Highly amplified upper level pattern begins the second half of the work week with a strong ridge dominating the SW and Central CONUS, and a closed low over eastern Quebec, keeping a troughing pattern over the NE US.
639 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 No weather concerns this evening with high pressure centered over Manitoba and a highly-amplified upper-level ridge axis extending from Saskatchewan to the Four Corners region. Maybe a few clouds west where lows will be in the lower 60s, compared to clear skies east with lows in the lower 50s. Upper ridging slides east and becomes centered over the Dakotas on Tuesday, with a potent thermal ridge of 850 mb temperatures over 30 C just to our west across the Northern Rockies. Warmest temperatures should stay outside of the forecast areas, with highs across the forecast area from the lower 90s west to mid 80s east.
HIgh pressure will maintain mostly clear skies with just thin cirrus drifting across the region. The winds have remained up into the evening but with the sun setting now and the surface pressure gradient relaxing as the cold front that passed through earlier today moves away. Northerly flow around high pressure over James Bay and northern Ontario will bring cooler and less humid air to central Indiana for the short term. Several waves will drop southeast across central Indiana moving in between a northern Quebec upper low and high amplitude Rockies and northern Plains ridge. There they have held on in the lower 60s. Otherwise, look for near seasonable temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and comfortable humidity levels.
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 The Great Lakes region will lie between a high amplitude ridge axis across central NOAM and a long wave trough from eastern Canada into the ern US over the next couple days. Gusty north winds off Lake Huron today combined with the cooler airmass will keep afternoon highs confined to the 60s across the thumb, with better mixing potential farther inland supporting highs into the 70s. Some airmass modification on Wednesday under full sun will support slightly warmer afternoon highs.
250 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms today, some of which may be strong to severe. High pressure will build behind the front bringing a long stretch of near rain-free conditions. High amplitude upper level trough and associated surface cold front today is expected to be a weather maker, especially for this afternoon. As front pushes offshore, a local low pressure forms and the front will stall, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday near coastal communities. Dry northwesterly mid level flow through the period on the backside of a healthy trough over the Northeast.
300 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Upper level low pressure will swing through the region today along with scattered to numerous showers and a few non-severe storms.
- IF nothing manages to fire up before sunset and before low levels start to cool near the subtle front in our northern CWA (in other words diurnally-driven activity), then odds are fairly high that we are "out of the woods" on any kind of possible "sneaky" convective threat for the night, as latest higher-res models runs such as HRRR/NAMNest keep any late-night/early- morning storm potential over the High Plains at least 50-100 miles west of our CWA. There is a backdoor cold front that is sliding south and could produce enough lift to break the cap and get a few storms fired off, but the only model supporting this possibility is the NAMNEST.
High pressure will remain in control as its ridge axis moves across the region. Eventually, we will see the upper air pattern transition from highly amplified with a strong ridge over the Four Corners, Intermountain West regions, and east U. trof, to more of a NW flow regime over the northern 1/2 of the nation.
159 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 An upper level high pressure system will dominate the area for the next few days. The center of the high pressure will be primarily centered over the Four Corners Region with northerly to northeasterly flow aloft.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a rather diffuse pattern over the Great Lakes with any surface boundaries located well to our south and high pressure over the northern Plains. High pressure stretching from central Canada into the northern Plains is forecast to build into the western Great Lakes tonight, allowing for the clear skies and a light north wind.
314 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A backdoor cold front will continue to move through the Mid-South this morning. Highs may be slightly cooler as well, but still expect readings in the mid 80s to lower 90s today.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast each afternoon, especially over the high terrain. Bad news for those without air conditioning and relying on cooler outside air to cool homes. Yavapai County temperatures are 5-10 degrees warmer at 9 PM compared to 24 hours ago. A strong high pressure system remains over the Four Corners area this afternoon and will remain in that location through Wednesday night.
1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with overnight lows in the 60s. This warm trend will continue through much of the week as ridge axis currently positioned out west will gradually shift eastwards.
1133 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will remain in control of the weather for the next several days. Cooler temperatures are likely with overnight lows in the middle 50s to around 60, and daytime highs in the middle 80s. The upper trough is shifting east of Illinois along with the surface cold front that dropped SE through the area today. Slightly cooler air will settle into our forecast area, dropping lows tonight about 2-5 degrees below last night, and limiting tomorrows highs about 3-4 degrees below today. The lower dewpoints will set up a banner summer day. Plenty of sunshine tomorrow, but with cooler northeasterly winds daytime highs will only reach into the lower to middle 80s.
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
120 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. High pressure and dry weather will then build into the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week. Another reinforcing cold front slides southeast out of the Great Lakes states Tuesday. Highs will reach into the upper 70s during the day, with temperatures retreating into the low to mid 50s Tuesday night. Highly amplified upper level pattern begins the second half of the work week with a strong ridge dominating the SW and Central CONUS, and a closed low over eastern Quebec, keeping a troughing pattern over the NE US.
414 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Low pressure from Quebec will track to the north of the area today with a cold front crossing the region tonight.
140 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Quiet night ahead with clear to partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures.
One thing of note is that the 00z GFS is notably cooler with 850 mb temps near and east of I-29 with at least some support from its ensemble envelope. Model consensus is even worse for the overnight hours Wednesday night with at least a few solutions showing the potential for upscale growth of any daytime convection as the low level jet eventually veers into southern MN.
107 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front sweep across the region late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build across the Southeast U.
/Updated at 0644 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ A surface cold front has just moved south of the I-20 area at this writing. The front was slowly catching up to the pre-frontal trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along the pre-frontal trough and along several outflows from convection this afternoon.
329 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Dry and seasonably warm air today and Wednesday - Warmer, increasing moisture, chance of storms late week -- Dry and seasonably warm air today and Wednesday -- North flow will continue to advect drier air into Michigan.
223 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 An N-S elongated upper ridge to our west will gradually orient itself more NE to SW by midweek, and will maintain hot and dry weather for our area.
The high will slide west and settle over SoCal this weekend bringing upper lvl northwest flow to the region. This weekend temperatures will reach the triple digits as the aforementioned upper lvl ridge will strengthen.
Large scale pattern features a 500 mb ridge extending from the Four Corner region up into Saskatchewan. The axis of that ridge is to our west, so we are in northwest flow. Thermal ridge was in place over the Rockies at 700 mb, with only limited moisture available. East or southeast winds may keep us from getting warmer than that today. Western IA may be just a bit cooler, 90 to 95.
144 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 An upper low will move across the area through Tuesday, bringing another period of showers. Cooler conditions will then take hold through mid-week. Water vapor imagery showing an upper low sliding toward western New York. The mid & upper level low over the region will finally push northeast out of the area, and open/phase with the overall trough over the region.
Strong upper ridge will be over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas today with hot weather. The ridge moves to the east tonight and an upper trough moves in from the west with an upper low to the north on Wednesday. This will bring a strong but mainly dry cold front through eastern Montana tonight.
Upper ridge axis will begin to shift east out of the Rockies and into the Western High Plains tonight. Models this morning have not changed much from the past few days in taking an upper level trough out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies mid week. The upper ridge axis over the Rockies today will shift east into the plains and weaken mid week with a westerly downslope flow forecast to develop across the West Central High Plains.
A strong ridge, centered over the Rockies and High Plains, remains of much of the region. While these temperatures will certainly be warm, dewpoints in the low 60s will keep heat indices from getting much higher than the actual temperatures, making any heat headlines unlikely through Wednesday.
352 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Another round of showers quickly moves through today, with some rumbles of thunder and otherwise cloudy and cooler weather. The trough will quickly pivot out of the area into the late afternoon, and simulated reflectivity drags showers out of our southeastern zones as early as 21Z. Skies clear out overnight as high pressure builds in with a drier airmass. Temperatures will turn much cooler, falling into the mid and upper 40s. A dry and sunny day is expected Wednesday courtesy of that ridge building in. Temperatures will be on the cooler side once more, peaking in the upper 60s and lower 70s while winds gust up to around 20mph. High pressure will center itself over the Eastern U.
354 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 An upper low will move across the area today, bringing a period of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Today will be a gorgeous late Spring day marked by a cold front pushing southward that will bring a refreshingly drier airmass. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. The TN Valley remains wedged between increasing ridging aloft over the Four Corners region and troughing along the Atlantic Coastline.
235 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A passing weak trough may spawn a few showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 and along the ridges.
1249 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Cold front and associated showers will push south of the region tonight. The weather pattern will dry out for midweek with noticeably cooler nights and less humidity.