Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Further Details: The monsoonal high over the Four Corners region will remain over this area through the short term, with only slight modifications to the orientation of the high, at times consuming much of the southern CONUS while other times being more defined over the southwest CONUS.
Quiet and muggy conditions settle in for the rest of the night for most of east central Florida, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. High pressure ridge axis lifting northward through central Florida will produce S-SSE winds at the southern terminals veering to S-SSW at the northern terminals 6kts or less tonight. The proximity of the ridge axis may cause winds to become light/variable or calm at times. Atlantic high pressure ridge axis over the Brevard waters will continue to shift slowly northward.
748 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Northwesterly flow behind a now departed low is keeping cooler onshore flow for the northeastern U. A couple mid-upper level lows working to establish broad troughing around Hudson Bay will take place in this forecast period.
724 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 High pressure builds across the area through the start of the weekend. Shower activity diminishes by late evening as ridging builds from the west.
745 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Warm conditions are expected today through Friday before even warmer, more humid air builds back into the region for this weekend. Northwesterly upper level flow and upper level troughing weakens on Friday giving way to height rises. At the surface, high pressure may start nudging in from the southwest modestly. Friday night starts off quiet due to high pressure building in from the south. Sub tropical ridge to extend from the Southern Plains across the Gulf states with a west-northwest flow across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
1012 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Warm conditions are expected today through Friday before even warmer, more humid air builds back into the region for this weekend. Northwesterly upper level flow and upper level troughing weakens on Friday giving way to height rises. At the surface, high pressure may start nudging in from the southwest modestly. Friday night starts off quiet due to high pressure building in from the south. Sub tropical ridge to extend from the Southern Plains across the Gulf states with a west-northwest flow across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
This trough will exit to the east by late this evening. Locations that do not receive precip will experience warmer temperatures with Heat Index values into the lower to mid 90s.
(Tonight) A broken line of showers and thunderstorms are draped from just east of Cherokee to Rogersville, near Madison, then up into Skyline and Bridgeport. Overnight lows will not be as warm, reaching the lower 70s.
Upper ridge remains in place over the southwest CONUS with modest northwest flow over the central Plains. Surface pressure pattern was rather nebulous with weak high pressure to the north and east, keeping winds modest. Latest suite of models on various scales keep nearly all precip north of eastern Kansas tonight, with little semblance of an upper wave and the low-level jet focused north.
WNW winds will continue to diminish fairly quickly this evening as high pressure drifts overhead. Louisville will likely remain in the low 70s. Tomorrow, return flow will help some areas lift dew points back into the low 70s early in the day. Sunny skies will quickly begin warming temperatures to highs in the low to mid 90s.
One last scorcher is expected on Friday, as the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region continues. Areas to the west can expect highs in the low to mid 90s. Any storms that do develop will likely stick to the high terrain as there is very little instability present anywhere else.
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 The upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS remains strong today. As a dynamic upper trough exits the Great Lakes region, this upper ridge will begin to build eastward across the central plains late this week and into the weekend. With the upper ridge expected to expand across the central plains on Friday, it will also begin to flatten out allowing for zonal flow across the northern plains.
Temperatures will trend slightly milder this week across interior portions of Northwest California, with highs falling into the lower to mid 90s by Friday.
Thereafter, strong ridging will move in at upper levels leading to well above normal temperatures.
314 AM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Low level southeast flow has now become mostly dominant for much of the region as latest surface analysis shows the ridge axis is in a position just to the north of the forecast area across north central Florida.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. a broad 591-594dam upper level ridge covers the southern half of the country. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Upper ridge remains in place over the southwest CONUS with modest northwest flow over the central Plains. Surface pressure pattern was rather nebulous with weak high pressure to the north and east, keeping winds modest. Latest suite of models on various scales keep nearly all precip north of eastern Kansas tonight, with little semblance of an upper wave and the low-level jet focused north. Saturday is still looking to be the hottest day of this forecast as 850 mb temps rise a few degrees downstream of an approaching cold front.
/ISSUED 454 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2022/ Dry weather contiues across the area this afternoon as upper level ridging continues its hold on the weather pattern regionally. The upper level ridging will lose its strangle hold over the area tomorrow, as a weak disturbance moves through the area. Behind this system, expect temperatures to be slightly cooler on Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s area wide.
245 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 06Z upper air analysis depicts a 250 mb anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest, with a narrow corridor of "ridge riders" advecting southward along the Texas/New Mexico state line and into the Permian Basin.
1209 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Tonight) A broken line of showers and thunderstorms are draped from just east of Cherokee to Rogersville, near Madison, then up into Skyline and Bridgeport. Overnight lows will not be as warm, reaching the lower 70s.
This ridge becomes more amplified with low off the Atlantic coast and troughing in the Western US. Ridge/valley splits will be noticeable, as Valleys drop off into the mid to upper 40s and ridges in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday will see dry and warm weather roll on, as the mid-level ridge continues to strengthen across the lower Ohio Valley. We could see a few cumulus in the afternoon, but most will see clear skies with highs in the low to mid 80s.
200 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue although some warming is expected through mid-week.
An expansive trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary just to the northwest of our region through mid week providing a modest cooling trend and continued dry conditions.
The mid/upper-level ridge will continue to build northward over the Quad State through Tuesday.
205 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 This afternoon through Tuesday: As has been anticipated, a pronounced mid/upper level ridge is securing a strong position over the Lower MS Valley region, and this is leading to anomalous warmth over much of the western two thirds of the forecast area with sfc temperatures this afternoon reaching or exceeding 90F.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a broad upper trough across the NW states with several disturbances cycling through the flow. By afternoon, warming surface temps will support unstable conditions across SE Idaho and shower activity favoring the higher terrain across SE Idaho.
A broad trough of low pressure remains parked across the western half of the U. Fairly widespread showers will continue to develop, bringing a mix of rain/graupel showers for most valley locations, and brief snow to the higher terrain. The moisture associated with the low across southern Idaho in particular may lead to some minor snow impacts this evening across southwest Montana and Lemhi, but accumulations should generally be light and mainly confined to unpaved surfaces and higher mountain passes. In fact, it could be a similar repeat to this morning, with widespread valleys temperatures dropping below freezing, and some valleys of western Montana dropping into the mid to upper 20s.
Mostly clear skies expected tonight and Tuesday with warmer temperatures. Discussion: The short term period centers around upper level ridging that will bring clear skies and warmer temperatures. The synoptic pattern remains similar on Tuesday as upper level ridging dominates the region. Clear skies and warmer temperatures can be expected with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Meanwhile, high pressure will attempt to build in from the north.
1250 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week with above normal temperatures.
214 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 The Mid-South will remain under the influence of an anomalous ridge over the next few days, resulting in generally hot and dry conditions.
218 PM MST Mon May 9 2022 An expansive trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary just to the northwest of our region through mid week providing a modest cooling trend and continued dry conditions.
/issued 214 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022/ The Mid-South will remain under the influence of an anomalous ridge over the next few days, resulting in generally hot and dry conditions.
Weak high pressure will build into the area Tuesday night.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: This afternoon through Tuesday: As has been anticipated, a pronounced mid/upper level ridge is securing a strong position over the Lower MS Valley region, and this is leading to anomalous warmth over much of the western two thirds of the forecast area with sfc temperatures this afternoon reaching or exceeding 90F.
1016 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will remain anchored in place for most of the week.
The latest upper analysis shows the low pressure system that brought precipitation to the area over the last 24 hours is currently located over southern Manitoba with the last of the precipitation ending over northwestern South Dakota. A weakly defined upper ridge will lead to dry weather on Tuesday, with highs mainly in the mid-60s to lower 70s.
An upper low located over Minnesota and North Dakota state line, that has brought precipiation to the region, continues to progress northeastward.
The guidance blend plus bias correction was the basis for lows around freezing. Temperatures this afternoon rise into the lower 60s. The High Wind Warning will continue across the same region until the approach of sunset.
619 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Key Messages: - Severe weather threat this evening A low pressure system over eastern North Dakota is slated to lift northeastward through southern Canada as the associated short wave trough rides up and along the southwest to northeast oriented pressure gradient with ridging holding steady off to the east. Depending on how well surface temperatures reach this afternoon will play a large roll into how quickly storms can develop as a front approaches from the west and the lower atmosphere destabilize.
Dry and much warmer weather returns late this week. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement troughing over the region will continue to bring unsettled weather to northern California today and into tomorrow. Cool air aloft associated with the troughing centered over the region today will support some increased CAPE values, however shear does not look as favorable.
648 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain anchored in the northeast through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
Key Points: - Unseasonable warmth continues; record highs in jeopardy - Thunderstorms becoming more likely later in the week Detailed Discussion: It's a hot afternoon as temperatures continue to climb through the lower and toward the mid 90s across the region. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible along the inverted trough axis later this evening, especially as the LLJ strengthens -- but should this occur in our forecast area, it would be in far northeast KS and then move off to the northeast and out of the area. Areas near and northwest of Concordia may sit close enough to the front not to climb into the 90s Tuesday, but other locations will see a repeat of today with breezy southerly winds and near- to-possibly-exceeding record high temps in the lower to mid 90s.
A freeze warning remains in effect for the Treasure and Western Magic Valleys from late tonight into Tuesday morning, and low temperatures are still expected to get near or just below freezing, so we will leave that as is. We will remain under a cold upper level trough tomorrow, so showers will redevelop under the afternoon sun, and an isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question (much like today, when we had exactly one thunderstorm). Showers becoming widespread over the higher terrain, with isolated thunderstorms.
840 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Low pressure will sit off the NC coast through mid-week, with cool high pressure ridging into central NC from the northeast. Water vapor satellite continued to display an upper-level low spinning just off the NC coast, and an elongated ridge stretching north from the Deep south into the Great Lakes Region. Surface observations showed low pressure off the NC coast, stacked below the upper-low, and ridging stretching across New England south across the East Coast. With ridging remaining in place across central NC, this will create a tighter pressure gradient and develop slightly stronger northerly wind gusts to 25 mph across more of the region Tuesday morning and afternoon.
900 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue although some warming is expected through mid-week.
525 PM MDT Mon May 9 2022 The longwave trough across the Intermountain West will begin to oscillate this evening, with southwest flow drawing back northward across WY as the main trough axis deepens along the Pacific Coast. With the slightly warmer temperatures, most precipitation will fall as rain, with snow confined to the highest elevations. A jet max in the southwest flow will bring another day of gusty winds to the state, with widespread gusts above 25, and frequent gusts above 40 for the higher elevations and the wind corridor from RKS to CPR.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Evening/ A mid and upper ridge will continue to strengthen overhead as the upper level pattern amplifies across the CONUS. North and Central Texas will lie beneath the western side of the ridge, which will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the dryline across the Big Country this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. A storm or two may affect areas along and west of the Highway 281 corridor, but will cap PoPs at 20 percent due to the expectation of coverage remaining low.
The low pressure system that brought rain and thunderstorms to the area last night into this morning has now pushed northward to eastern North Dakota/northwestern Minnesota. High pressure settles in over the region tonight and Tuesday, then gets pushed eastward Tuesday night as low pressure tracks from Colorado to western Nebraska.
1015 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week with above normal temperatures.
Temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 50s in our eastern valleys, with upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. Upper level ridging continues to amplify across the central CONUS with a cutoff low situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Underneath the ridge, high pressure continues to dominate the sensible weather across much of the Southeast.
626 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will remain anchored in place for most of the week.
626 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 The low pressure system that brought rain and thunderstorms to the area last night into this morning has now pushed northward to eastern North Dakota/northwestern Minnesota. High pressure settles in over the region tonight and Tuesday, then gets pushed eastward Tuesday night as low pressure tracks from Colorado to western Nebraska.
924 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Dry weather and a continued warming trend can be expected through Tuesday as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures through midweek will average several degrees below normal, but a warming trend will commence late in the week with well above normal temperatures returning as high pressure builds across the Southwest. A cool and breezy evening is on tap as we remain under the influence of the trough that brought the strong winds yesterday.
745 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Low pressure will sit off the NC coast through mid-week, with cool high pressure ridging into central NC from the northeast. Water vapor satellite continued to display an upper-level low spinning just off the NC coast, and an elongated ridge stretching north from the Deep south into the Great Lakes Region. Surface observations showed low pressure off the NC coast, stacked below the upper-low, and ridging stretching across New England south across the East Coast. With ridging remaining in place across central NC, this will create a tighter pressure gradient and develop slightly stronger northerly wind gusts to 25 mph across more of the region Tuesday morning and afternoon.
/issued 256 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022/ Pleasant, dry weather continues across the Florida peninsula as a ridge builds in the from the west, and an area of low pressure develops off the mid-atlantic states.
659 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will remain anchored in place for most of the week.
415 PM MST Mon May 9 2022 Updated Aviation An expansive trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary just to the northwest of our region through mid week providing a modest cooling trend and continued dry conditions.
546 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Our warm up has commenced thanks to upper-level ridging building into the Midwest. With a few more hours of diurnal warming left, we are on track to see widespread values in the low to mid 80s, with portions of central Missouri seeing highs topping out around 90. Temperatures at 850 mb approaching 20 C tomorrow paired with deep mixing will support most locations seeing values right around 90 degrees for afternoon highs, with some locations seeing values in the low to mid 90s.
hot and humid weather will continue through the week as a strong upper ridge builds over and just east of the region.
740 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain anchored in the northeast through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
724 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week with above normal temperatures.
506 PM MDT Mon May 9 2022 The latest upper analysis shows the low pressure system that brought precipitation to the area over the last 24 hours is currently located over southern Manitoba with the last of the precipitation ending over northwestern South Dakota. A weakly defined upper ridge will lead to dry weather on Tuesday, with highs mainly in the mid-60s to lower 70s.
This evenings sounding had suggest very dry air through the lower levels. Consequently, showers that developed along the wind surge boundary and old South Florida seabreeze boundaries have managed to hold together over the gulf waters adjacent to the Lower and Middle Keys. Short Term Update - Over the next hour or two, the higher winds will spread across the remainder of the forecast area. The combination of a ridge over the Atlantic States and Gulf of Mexico and a low meandering off the Carolina Coast has resulted in freshening breezes pushing through roughly half of Keys waters this evening.
639 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level ridge remains in place over Texas this afternoon with cyclonic flow over the state. The low level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass over our CWA.
832 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure continues to build in from the north-northeast while large low pressure remains over the western Atlantic. 78 inches per 00z sounding) and cooler low level airmass will enable lows to fall into the lower to mid 50s inland and close to 60 at the coast. High pressure will be east of the region Tonight, with an area of low pressure moving slowly south across the western Atlantic will be east of the SC coast by Tuesday morning.
/issued 323 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The mid level ridge continues to dominate the pattern through the short term period.
/NF/ This afternoon through Tuesday: As has been anticipated, a pronounced mid/upper level ridge is securing a strong position over the Lower MS Valley region, and this is leading to anomalous warmth over much of the western two thirds of the forecast area with sfc temperatures this afternoon reaching or exceeding 90F.
(This evening through Tuesday) Hot weather will continue on Tuesday as anomalously strong (~592 dam) and high-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered across the Midwest. The Southern Plains will be on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge with a persistent low-level thermal ridge remaining in place. The magnitude of the low-level thermal ridge does appear to be a little lower than today, so temperatures may not be as hot--especially across the west.
949 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain anchored in the northeast through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
307 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Upper level ridging holds from northeast Mexico to the Great Lakes through Wed as a low slowly tracks southward off the eastern seaboard. Then during the weekend they merge into an east bound upper trough that moves over the eastern states through Mon. Then a low pressure system move into the Gulf and weakens, allowing winds to diminish. A low pressure system approaching from the northeast will begin increasing moisture Thu.
204 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure extends from New England into the Mid-Atlantic.
352 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Upper-level ridging will prevail for the next few days across the Mid- South. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a weak disturbance on the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow. Highs by midweek increase to the low 90s with lows in the 70s.
330 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Mid level heights will continue to rise as a ridge strengthens over the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley regions.
Otherwise today, the low clouds south of I-20 will burn off late morning and midday. It will be breezy across the Big Country and Concho Valley with a lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line.
Both 850mb moisture transport and the low level jet itself diminish considerably as the convection moves our way.
408 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur today under high pressure.
206 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week with above normal temperatures. Tonight will promote warmer temperatures although radiational cooling and cold air drainage will allow for cooler temperatures in valleys and the known cold spots to dip below seasonable once again, but with that said, we should not have to worry about frost in the growing season areas. Maybe just some patchy frost is possible outside of the growing season areas in and along the highest elevations in the northeast mountains, where temperatures can dip down into the mid 30's.
324 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure extends from New England into the Mid-Atlantic.
321 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Fcst period stays relatively benign with a subsidence dominated regime under continued ridging and broad upper low staying off the Carolina coast for the time being.
Otherwise, the expansion of a strong upper ridge will continue into midweek in response to an organizing western CONUS trough.