Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lead mid level trough axis featured within a broadening area of height falls anchored overhead early this morning. A slightly cooler resident thermal profile relative to the weekend countered by a respectable degree of insolation under thinning cloud and deeper mixing. Potential for a slightly greater recovery and will nudge projected highs up into the lower to mid 70s most locations. This process will draw the attendant cold front through Southeast Michigan, offering a reinforcing shot of cooler air heading into Tuesday.
With this cloud cover, northwesterly flow, and building cooler airmass, daytime highs have largely topped out in the 50s in the west and low 60s in the east. Troffing across the Great Lakes starts the forecast period with seasonal temperatures.
This band is associated with a very small short wave trough embedded in the general ridge aloft. Temperatures through this period will still be mild, thanks to the ridging aloft. The lows tonight will be in the upper 40s, with a few locations only getting down to the lower 50s. Highs Tuesday range from the lower 60s in The James River Valley, to the mid 70s in the west.
500 MB low pressure axis over the Great Lakes has us beneath a dry nw fetch aloft, but as the pattern progresses eastward during the day Tuesday, a 500 MB ridge axis presently to the lee of the Rockies will shift into the Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon, helping to contribute to our expected warm-up into the 80s for most of our Valley locales.
254 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 The upper level trough axis begins to push over Florida allowing a drier airmass to settle over the area decreasing rain chances for this afternoon. Cooler temperatures aloft could support hail development if the storms do become active. The aforementioned upper level trough will begin to flatten Tuesday allowing for subsidence and more dry air.
At the upper levels, upper ridge sits over the rockies, with northwest flow aloft. The Low pressure and associated wave slides through the forecast area later today, increasing cloud cover in the region. Cooler temperatures move in behind the cold front for Tuesday, however still above normal for this time of year. Upper ridge begins to flatten Tuesday, creating more zonal flow aloft, and a more active pattern.
Temperatures will cool slightly over the next several days as high pressure relaxes over the region, however afternoon highs will still remain above the seasonal normal throughout the week. Early morning WV imagery and objective analysis indicates strong H5 ridging being supplanted by a series of East Pacific subtropical waves.
With the increase in clouds and flow off the lake versus the sun and westerly flow of today, it will be on the cooler side Tuesday.
Low temperatures will drop to the low to mid 50s for most, but Louisville will likely remain warmer near 60. Under lots of sunshine, high temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s with a few areas in the Bluegrass only seeing the upper 70s.
1221 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022 (The rest of today ) Pleasant May day underway, with dewpoints running about 5-15 degrees lower than this time yesterday and highs expected to reach the lower to mid 80s.
Outside of a chilly night A general area of troughing is pushing through the region. A peice of energy is moving into the lower Great Lakes with some decent subsidence behind it. At the surface a weak cold front as dropped through Nrn Michigan and as of mid-afternoon has pushed off shore into Lake Huron. A bit better low level moisture resides north of the bridge, with some low clouds possibly trying to hang on there. Even with high pressure starting to nudge in from the northwest don't believe our winds will fully decouple enough to go calm. Cooler Tuesday, Frosty Tuesday Night then Warming Back Up. Weak high pressure and associated cooler temperatures settle across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Attention then turns to the south where a weak area of low pressure is expected to form.
Today Through Tuesday Night Some early morning TS activity continues to fester across the area ahead of the cold front as it makes its way south. More pleasant temperatures will be noted briefly today and tonight as H500 NW flow remains in place with sfc ridging in the vicinity. By Tuesday, H500 ridge to the SW begins to expand eastward with sfc ridging following suit.
As the upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico lifts northeastward over the Western Atlantic, a ridge will build across the South Florida Peninsula.
Expect sunrise temperatures in the low 60s across most of the area.
The best chance for a shower to possible isolated thunderstorm will be west of I-65 closer to the approaching trough axis to our west; however, that will not be until much later in the afternoon. Despite lower dewpoints north, temperatures will still likely rise into the lower 90s, but the apparent temperature/heat indices will remain in check.
Temperatures will be notably cooler than yesterday, but still a few degrees above normal.
Mid-level heights will also continue to rise as a broad ridge builds over the region. While cloud cover will increase today due to the moisture feed, ridging with a dry sub- cloud layer will keep precipitation chances to a minimum today. A warmer day is expected with the approaching ridge. Chances for showers increase gradually tonight as the upper level ridge flattens and embedded waves move through.
The area will be influenced by periods of weak troughing and ridging, so we're not expecting much in the way of precipitation.
Otherwise, much cooler air will overspread the region in the wake of a cold front with temperatures on Tuesday struggling to reach 60.
727 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 A cold front will move through the region this evening. Generally fair and warmer conditions expected Tuesday through late week. SAt 23z the cold front was still to the west across the Upstate region with a pre-frontal trough moving through the Midlands and CSRA. The cold front will be east of the area by Tuesday morning. Upper flow remains northwesterly, and downsloping, and this will keep the airmass behind the front only slightly cooler and dry Tuesday.
The risk for more strong storms has passed as the lower levels decouple.
Weak trough axis will remain across the area aloft, while at the sfc a light offshore flow will be present between stalled front to the north and ridge axis to the south. The light westerly winds will lead to another hot afternoon, with highs forecast to reach the low to mid 90s west of I- 95, and upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the coast.
/Updated at 0655 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022/ A cold front has slipped southward and was approaching Montgomery. Convection has tried to start ahead of the front, but limited instability, little near surface convergence and warmer temperatures aloft have inhibited most development.
As this trough nears western Utah, the left exit region of a small jet rounding its base will couple with the right entrance region of a polar jet situated across central Wyoming. This coupled jet will enhance frontogenesis along a stationary front near the Wyoming border, pushing it south into Utah and Colorado as a weak cold front. The clouds and shower activity north of I-70 associated with this frontal feature will keep temperatures around 5 degrees cooler compared to this afternoon, while areas along and south of I-70 will remain dry and see temperatures comparable to today. snow and lastly a dash of possible freezing temperatures where they would be unwelcome this time of year. Driving the upcoming changes to the forecast will be a highly anomalous low pressure system currently stuck in the Gulf of Alaska.
/issued 254 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022/ The upper level trough axis begins to push over Florida allowing a drier airmass to settle over the area decreasing rain chances for this afternoon. Cooler temperatures aloft could support hail development if the storms do become active. The aforementioned upper level trough will begin to flatten Tuesday allowing for subsidence and more dry air.
950 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022 Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the TN Valley overnight in the wake of an upper-level trough lifting northeastward over southern Quebec, and this will maintain dry conditions. The continental high pressure system will move eastward over the next couple of days, keeping the area in northerly flow for tomorrow. However, as the high slides farther to the east into the Mid-Atlantic, sfc winds will begin to return from the S-SW allowing for increased warmth and an uptick in low-lvl moisture/humidity.
That being said, with the passage of the cold front during the overnight hours, winds in later ensemble runs may prove to be strong enough to warrant an advisory tomorrow afternoon.
Winds become light and variable tomorrow ahead of a cold front moving in form the north with skies becoming mostly clear by tomorrow afternoon. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to move eastward off the higher terrain of Colorado Tuesday afternoon and into northern portions of the CWA Tuesday evening.
930 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 A cold front moves offshore overnight, followed by a secondary cold frontal passage on Tuesday.
905 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022 (Issued 905 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022) High pressure moves through the region late tonight into Tuesday, bringing light winds. Outside of adjusting hourly temperatures trends to account for temperatures staying a bit warmer in spots this evening, the forecast remains on track. With the increase in clouds and flow off the lake versus the sun and westerly flow of today, it will be on the cooler side Tuesday.
Dew point temperatures falling into the 50s will make for cooler-feeling conditions as temperatures rise into the low/mid 80s at most locations by late afternoon. The continental high pressure system will move eastward over the next couple of days, keeping the area in northerly flow for tomorrow. However, as the high slides farther to the east into the Mid-Atlantic, sfc winds will begin to return from the S-SW allowing for increased warmth and an uptick in low-lvl moisture/humidity.
As this flow weakens with a building ridge, the clouds should dissipate and leave clear skies by around 09Z. High pressure will be over the TN Valley through this forecast period, providing VFR conditions at all sites. With dry air moving into tonight behind a cold front, fog is unlikely to form tonight. 500 MB low pressure axis over the Great Lakes has us beneath a dry nw fetch aloft, but as the pattern progresses eastward during the day Tuesday, a 500 MB ridge axis presently to the lee of the Rockies will shift into the Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon, helping to contribute to our expected warm-up into the 80s for most of our Valley locales.
632 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022 High pressure continues over the area this evening.
Upper level ridging is expected to hold into Tuesday with surface boundary dissipating.
A relatively dry continental airmass (dewpoints in the lower 50s) will cool efficiently tonight, with clear skies and light winds.
Heights and 850 mb temps will be on the upswing on Tuesday so should see high temps a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to today.
/Issued 315 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022/ As the trough across the northeast becomes negatively tilted this afternoon and evening, the surface level low strengthens over New England. The weak attendant cold front that has been draped across Tennessee/Alabama this morning has started to work its way through the northwestern corner of Georgia this afternoon. Behind the cold front that should make its way out of the forecast area by the early morning hours tomorrow, more seasonable temperatures will return and much drier conditions will prevail under mostly sunny skies. KAL A slightly stronger-than-normal (for this time of year) upper ridge will be in control across the Gulf coast / Southeast region for the first part of this period.
Heights at 500 mb are gradually rising as the broad ridge over the Plains moves slowly east, suggesting large scale subsidence and warmer temperatures. Some locations in West TN and northeast MS could dip into the lower 50s. A relatively dry continental airmass (dewpoints in the lower 50s) will cool efficiently tonight, with clear skies and light winds.
cloud cover associated with the convection was beginning to spread into Eastern Oklahoma while at the same time a warm front had lifted to the Red River across Southern Oklahoma. Scattered showers and storms will once again be possible Tuesday night across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the front that is currently stalled out across north Texas returns to the north across the area as a warm front.
This will drive a back door cold front through our area during the evening, which will become stationary along the southern edges of our CWA overnight. With the front sitting along our southern border, there will be a wide range of temperatures for Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 60s over southwestern MN to mid and upper 70s south of Interstate 90.
759 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 A cold front will move through the region this evening. Generally fair and warmer conditions expected Tuesday through late week. SAt 23z the cold front was still to the west across the Upstate region with a pre-frontal trough moving through the Midlands and CSRA. The cold front will be east of the area by Tuesday morning. Upper flow remains northwesterly, and downsloping, and this will keep the airmass behind the front only slightly cooler and dry Tuesday.
556 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Dry weather returns late tonight and Tuesday under high pressure, but rain is back in the forecast for mid week. That high wl maintain dry and cool conditions on Tuesday as the effects of east coast upper troughing continue.
1042 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 No less than eight waterspouts were observed this afternoon across the Lower Keys. If it were not for the relatively high pressures, then one could consider the surface pattern as a weak trough. Relic afternoon cloudline boundaries are stalled and stretch from Florida Bay to the Straits of Florida south of the Lower Keys, while Cuban outflows have made very little progress to the north. Light to gentle, mainly southerly breezes will prevail tonight and Tuesday as high pressure remains displaced well to the east across the western North Atlantic.
230 PM MST Mon May 16 2022 Temperatures will cool slightly over the next several days as high pressure relaxes over the region, however afternoon highs will still remain above average throughout the week. In its wake temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon and tomorrow. High-resolution HREF also indicates the potential for 30-35 mph gusts across Imperial County this evening as a weak trough further west enhances the pressure gradient across southern California.
Temperatures will cool slightly over the next several days as high pressure relaxes over the region, however afternoon highs will still remain above average throughout the week. In its wake temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon and tomorrow. High-resolution HREF also indicates the potential for 30-35 mph gusts across Imperial County this evening as a weak trough further west enhances the pressure gradient across southern California.
1003 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 A cold front crosses the local area from this afternoon through this evening.
Outside of a chilly night A general area of troughing is pushing through the region. A piece of energy is moving into the lower Great Lakes with some decent subsidence behind it. At the surface a weak cold front as dropped through Nrn Michigan and as of mid-afternoon has pushed off shore into Lake Huron. A bit better low level moisture resides north of the bridge, with some low clouds possibly trying to hang on there. Even with high pressure starting to nudge in from the northwest don't believe our winds will fully decouple enough to go calm. Cooler Tuesday, Frosty Tuesday Night then Warming Back Up. Weak high pressure and associated cooler temperatures settle across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Attention then turns to the south where a weak area of low pressure is expected to form.
626 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022 (Tonight) High pressure reigns supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today with the front that brought the severe weather to the region yesterday evening stalled across north Texas. Scattered showers and storms will once again be possible Tuesday night across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the front that is currently stalled out across north Texas returns to the north across the area as a warm front.
Short wave ridging building back in should ensure any isolated showers brushing far northern zones in the morning should not manifest in other areas farther south later in the day. Highs should range from near 90 in the north to the 93 to 94 range in the far south with peak heat index values running 3 or 4 degrees warmer than that. Finally, tomorrow night the lows will again be in the muggy near 70 range everywhere.
Elsewhere, similar conditions to yesterday with warmer than normal temperatures and afternoon/evening gustiness. Area will lie under a dry northwest Wednesday as trough out of the Gulf of Alaska/western Canada starts to work south.
Deep layer stability held within a very dry airmass will govern conditions today, as surface ridging drifts beneath confluent mid level northwest flow. Full insolation aside from some late diurnal cu works to offset a noticably cooler resident thermal profile /h85 temps of single digits/.
343 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Today and tonight: Last evening's shower activity has pushed southeast of the area as a cold front makes slow southward progress into the region this morning. Behind it, dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s and even upper 50s in parts of north MS.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) A weak cold front managed to make it into the Permian Basin this morning shifting winds around from the northeast and east. The disturbance is moving into a large ridge that will reduce its impact, but there should still be enough instability for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms to form later this afternoon. The highest rain chances will be in southeastern New Mexico where an isolated storm or two could become severe.
1218 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 A weak cold front will push offshore late tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the region through the end of the week. Another cold front will approach the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are steadily moving east tonight ahead of a cold front. Updated lows range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. A cold front could linger offshore on Tuesday, but by and large, the deeper moisture will have exited the coast with it earlier in the morning, so the forecast remains rain-free.
1246 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Dry weather returns late tonight and Tuesday under high pressure, but rain is back in the forecast for mid week. With the passage of the cold front today, high pressure will become the dominant weather feature across the area.
A strong cold front will bring rain and high mountain snow to the area on Wednesday followed by stronger winds, especially near the Cascades.
Weak northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place through the near term period as an upper-level ridge over the Central US slides into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. High pressure builds in over the Tennessee River Valley on Tuesday, allowing for a drier, more stable airmass to push into the northern half of the region. This, along with subsidence from the deep-layer ridging will keep rain out of the forecast for Tuesday. Temperatures warm further on Wednesday as the boundary lifts back to the north and the upper ridge moves overhead, with many interior locations reaching the middle 90s (upper 80s to lower 90s will be seen in coastal counties). Lows will range from the low to mid 60s in our northern counties to low 70s closer to the coast.
With cooler air and a pressure gradient remaining across the east through the first half of the day, a few gusts into the teens are expected early on.
446 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 The short term period will start off warm and dry around eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of area weather. We will see showers and a few storms moving into the area on Wednesday, as an area of low pressure moves out way out of the central Plains. Tonights lows will range from the lower 50s in our valleys to the mid and upper 50s on the ridges. Attention then turns to a deepening trough moving through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. The deterministic ECMWF is slightly faster with this than the GFS resulting in a weaker downstream ridge affecting eastern Kentucky heading into the weekend.
1129 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 Seasonably cooler and drier conditions will return for tonight through Wednesday. Warmer and more humid air will return to the region later this week.
A dry zonal flow aloft continues to setup over the PacNW this evening thanks to an upper low pressure system currently over the Gulf of Alaska. The upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the Gulf of Alaska placing the forecast area under a dry westerly flow through Tuesday.
Upper level ridge should hold on Tuesday with VFR conditions. Upper level ridging is expected to hold into Tuesday with surface boundary dissipating. Ridging will build eastward tonight into tomorrow, becoming the dominating synoptic feature through the next few days. Ridging overhead will provide a sufficient cap, keeping shower activity at bay through the next few days. As a result, more hot and humid weather is on tap with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s once again both tomorrow and Wednesday.
It'll be a touch warmer, but dew points should still hang out in the 50s for one more day of breathable air.
A continental airmass is situating across the Deep South with high pressure to our north and a continued presence of northwesterly, subsident flow aloft. This will coincide with low-level ridging positioning to our east/southeast allowing for more southerly/southwesterly Sfc-850 mb flow along the Gulf Coast. Increasing low-level thickness values suggest further warming as ridging begins to establish more to our west.
There's also some signal for a few storms coming off the high plains in Kansas and grazing northern Oklahoma.
cloud cover associated with the convection was beginning to spread into Eastern Oklahoma while at the same time a warm front had lifted to the Red River across Southern Oklahoma.
335 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 The Upper level trough and upper level jet, which produced unsettled weather yesterday, has moved away leaving the Keys in a col region resulting in light winds across the island chain. The col region will slowly diminish as high pressure extends over the area late tonight and Wednesday.
The highest gust was reported at Elkhart with 64 mph.
Temperatures will cool slightly over the next several days as high pressure relaxes over the region, however afternoon highs will still remain above average throughout the week. In its wake temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon and tomorrow. High-resolution HREF also indicates the potential for 30-35 mph gusts across Imperial County this evening as a weak trough further west enhances the pressure gradient across southern California. An additional degree or two will be knocked off high temperatures Wednesday as another in a series of troughs traverses central Arizona. Later in the week, latest GEFS indicates a deeper and more robust trough dropping into the upper Midwest.
A few showers and weak thunderstorms may linger through around 3 am over Southwest Montana along the trailing edge of a cold front.
Slightly cooler but still warm today. Warmer and dry tomorrow with breezy westerly winds.
200 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 A cold front moves offshore overnight, followed by a secondary cold frontal passage on Tuesday.