Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
258 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Not seeing much for impactful weather in the short term, the main message is that the FA is finally in the transition zone between the departing trough and western ridging (so less wind and more sun, but colder temperatures).
Drier air arrives today in the wake of the departing cold front. Satellite and surface obs indicate a surface cold front is located across eastern Middle Tennessee moving southeast. This cold front is forecast to pass west to east across the forecast area between 10z and 15z this morning with drier air and sunshine arriving from the west.
Lift associated with this low is keeping showers and isolated thunderstorms going across mainly our western zones early this morning with activity slowly moving northeastward. This low will continue to slowly drift to the east today however as it does so it will weaken as it is absorbed by the larger eastern CONUS trough. With the low remaining west of the forecast area this evening mid to high level clouds will continue streaming over the forecast area through the night for at least the western half of the forecast area.
224 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge remains over the intermountain west, continuing the trend of dry and mild conditions.
Drier air arrives today in the wake of the departing cold front. Satellite and surface obs indicate a surface cold front is located across eastern Middle Tennessee moving southeast. This cold front is forecast to pass west to east across the forecast area between 10z and 15z this morning with drier air and sunshine arriving from the west. This surge of well below normal temperatures will be a result of a strong vertically stacked low pressure system digging into the southeast Great Lakes region. NAEFS tables suggest 500mb heights of 5 to 6 standard deviations below mean values, with 850mb temperatures falling well below freezing on Tuesday.
Key Message will be freezing temperatures over the next few days. As a result, will favor the slightly warmer NBM guidance. On Tuesday the reinforcement of colder air that will be filtering into western Kansas Monday is forecast to linger across most of western Kansas as the cool dome of high pressure builds into Kansas late day/overnight.
This anticipated change could bring breezier winds, much cooler temperatures, and measurable, but light, precipitation. Upper level ridging will continue to maintain its position somewhere over the northwestern United States/northern Rockies over the short term period.
Not seeing much for impactful weather in the short term, the main message is that the FA is finally in the transition zone between the departing trough and western ridging (so less wind and more sun, but colder temperatures). After the cold start, highs Tuesday will not be much warmer than today. Upper level ridging over the western CONUS will be the primary feature driving the flow pattern over the northern Plains as troughing over the eastern CONUS persists. This will result in generally meridional flow aloft over the region as the ridging out west amplifies.
An upper-level composite analysis this morning shows a deep layer mean anticyclone centered near the Yucatan Peninsula, while a deep cyclone and large area of surrounding cyclonic flow covered much of the eastern United States, with northwest flow aloft over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Keys.
Today: The upper level ridging still continues with the high pressure over Idaho remaining in place. Therefore we are still in northwest flow with 850mb temperatures below freezing. A stratus deck is in place across the western half of our forecast area, this will act like a blanket and keep the temperatures this morning a little warmer than the east. At the 850mb level, temperatures above freezing are in the west, while the east will stay under temperatures below freezing.
513 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Water vapor imagery depicts a prominent ridge centered over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east. Sfc ridging extends to our north to Manitoba. Areas under clear skies are dipping below freezing. High pressure slides off to the east today, bringing light easterly winds to the region. Upper ridge remains over the west for the first half of the week, bringing dry conditions, light winds, and gradually warming temperatures.
The post-frontal air mass is filtering in drier, cooler air, and occasionally gusty northerly winds.
The large majority of the area will see temperatures dip below freezing by daybreak, but it is uncertain how much will see a true âhard freezeâ of 28 degrees or below. Tonight, there is still high confidence in sub-freezing temperatures across the entire area. For now, have maintained low temperature forecast on the lower side of guidance as models show VERY dry air moving in. ranging from the low teens in our north to the upper 20s in our south/southwest. Warming conditions are then expected through the middle and end of the week as the deep upper trough slowly moves eastward and the upper level flow becomes more zonal.
A strong area of high pressure will result in warm and dry conditions throughout much of the week.
649 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Today and tonight) Rain chances will continue across much of the area today, with the highest rain chances remaining south of Interstate 20. Precipitation will end across southwest counties this evening, as the upper low over New Mexico continues to weaken and gets absorbed into the western periphery of a larger-scale upper trough situated over the eastern CONUS.
634 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night ) An upper low continues over the Great Lakes this morning with a strong upper ridge over the west. The upper low will move slowly east through Tuesday night. The cold front has moved through the state and cooler and drier air continues to work into the state from the north. High pressure moving into the area is of Canadian origin. Freezing temperatures are expected in north and parts of central Arkansas tonight into Tuesday morning and a Freeze Warning has been issued for this area and updated to include another row of counties south of the original area.
Warmer conditions are expected during the upcoming workweek with only a few clouds here and there. High pressure aloft will strengthen over the region this week.
303 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Water vapor imagery depicts a prominent ridge centered over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east. Sfc ridging extends to our north to Manitoba. Areas under clear skies are dipping below freezing. High pressure slides off to the east today, bringing light easterly winds to the region. Upper ridge remains over the west for the first half of the week, bringing dry conditions, light winds, and gradually warming temperatures.
Sunny skies today will lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s across northeast Colorado. Across northeast Colorado, even with a warmer airmass just off the surface, lows will be close to this morning with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s. An upper level low continues to stall over the Great Lakes. Most of our CWA sits on the eastern edge of the incoming ridge and majority of northeastern Colorado seems stuck between a rock and a hard place in terms of precipitation chances.
Winds over the area are expected to decrease today and begin to veer to the south and then west by this evening in response to an approaching cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico.
620 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A bank of mid clouds across western and central South Dakota early this morning will continue a slow progression southwards due to steering flow from the north as we remain centered between a western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS upper low.
The blocking pattern continues over the CONUS with a Rex block over the western US and a deep trough from the Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes. A cold high pressure area was moving south through the Plains, though the center is still far north in Manitoba. Temperatures may even be slightly warmer than forecast.
Otherwise, a cold front will push through the area today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s across the area. For tonight, cold advection behind the front will usher in a much cooler airmass into portions of the area with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s across southeast Alabama to the lower 60s across the southeast big bend. Elsewhere, some fog could also reach TLH and perhaps VLD, although VLD has the lowest chance of seeing dense fog.
621 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Today through Tuesday) At 07Z the cold front has moved east of the forecast area. It is possible places in the warmer heat island of Nashville or directly along the TN River might be right around freezing or slightly above. with all locations expected to be below freezing.
Warmer temperatures into the middle 80s today will begin a warming and drying trend through most of the week. The upper level low that caused active weather across the forecast area has now shifted eastward into New Mexico. Thus, warming and drying conditions are in store across SC AZ and SE CA over the next several days as ridging builds in behind this low. Residual isolated convection could spawn across eastern Gila County this afternoon around the backside of this upper level low, as indicated by the latest HREF run.
Lift associated with this low is keeping showers and isolated thunderstorms going across mainly our western zones early this morning with activity slowly moving northeastward. This low will continue to slowly drift to the east today however as it does so it will weaken as it is absorbed by the larger eastern CONUS trough. With the low remaining west of the forecast area this evening mid to high level clouds will continue streaming over the forecast area through the night for at least the western half of the forecast area. East of the escarpment, drier low-level air should move into the area overnight and with clearing skies radiative cooling should be maximized hence the lowest temperatures into Tuesday morning may be across the southwest Texas Panhandle.
(The rest of today ) Cool low level northerly flow is in place this morning with temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmer south) across the area. High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south, with readings in the low 60s near Tulsa.
However, breezy northerly winds will help to keep temperatures in check today and we'll likely struggle to climb above the low to mid 60s for highs.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the continued pattern of the trough axis out east with a ridging pattern over the western CONUS and a cutoff low spinning over the desert southwest. Associated CAA throughout the day today will limit afternoon high temperatures to the low 50s under mostly clear skies. Continued CAA through Tuesday will reduce morning low temperatures into the low 20s, approaching near-record values.
516 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring warmer weather early this week.
The upper low responsible for our wet weather is currently over New Mexico. Storms this morning and early afternoon will be our last chance of rain for a while, besides a storm or two in the higher terrain.
402 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 High clouds from an approaching warm front and some coastal stratus are showing up on satellite this morning. A deep upper level low offshore will run into this ridge of high pressure later this afternoon before stalling out over the Pacific.
A strong high pressure system will continue to bring well above normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, and light winds today.
320 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Near normal temperatures today, then warmer weather returns through the remainder of the week. Cooler with a chance of rain this weekend.
(Today and tonight) Rain chances will continue across much of the area today, with the highest rain chances remaining south of Interstate 20. Precipitation will end across southwest counties this evening, as the upper low over New Mexico continues to weaken and gets absorbed into the western periphery of a larger-scale upper trough situated over the eastern CONUS.
555 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Today through tonight: An anomalous upper level trough responsible for the upcoming early season frost/freeze event will dig sharply southward across the eastern CONUS in the highly amplified pattern. This will send a cold front southward through the forecast area this morning, and there should be just enough moisture to support a few showers with its passage. Temperatures will drop considerably tonight in a cold advection pattern and readings could dip into the mid 30s along/north of the Highway 82 corridor by daybreak.
High pressure centered over ID, MT, and WY will continue to build through Tuesday. Even at higher elevations it will be warm for this time of year with highs expected to rise well above freezing. This morning, lows are likely to drop below freezing for many lower elevations once again, thanks to subsidence and clear skies. Monday night lows will be on the order of 5 degrees warmer due to warmer temperatures moving in from the northwest around the high as it shifts a little to the east.
The evolution of a deep upper trough continues to unfold over the Great Lakes. Rain showers will continue Tuesday, but the precipitation will quickly transition to rain as warmer air moves in as the low moves east.
The low temperature forecast tonight leans on the short term model blend plus 3 degrees for lows mostly in the 20s. This forecast is several degrees warmer than the guidance blend and close to the 75th percentile of the NBM.
the forecast area is in between a large upper level low over the Great Lakes area and an upper level high over Idaho. High temperatures are expected to range from the middle to upper 50s across the eastern portion of the forecast area to the lower 60s elsewhere. This will complicate the low temperature forecast. The eastern zones under the cloud cover could very well be above freezing for lows. no significant change at 500mb with a large trough across the east and large ridge across the west. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 50s across the eastern portion of the forecast area to the middle 60s across far eastern Colorado.
1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Today through Tuesday) At 07Z the cold front has moved east of the forecast area. It is possible places in the warmer heat island of Nashville or directly along the TN River might be right around freezing or slightly above. with all locations expected to be below freezing.
This was leading to fair skies, breezy north winds (gusts 25 to 35 mph) and one of the cooler days of the season so far. For our forecast we are anticipating strong radiational cooling and a least a couple periods of nearly calm winds tonight that should help temperatures slip towards the lower end of the guidance. This should limit afternoon highs to the lower 40s despite ample sunshine. It will also allow lows to crash into the lower 20s and upper teens again tomorrow night.
The upper level low currently in New Mexico is expected to move south and become absorbed into the broad upper level trough over the eastern US by tomorrow evening.
Clear skies this morning as we continue to be under a strong upper level ridge.
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A sprawling ridge of high pressure dominated the western CONUS and upper low pressure trough prevailed over the eastern CONUS. Winds beneath the ridge were variable to light northerly. The ridge will strengthen and position itself over the Rockies and High Plains for the next few days.
(Through tonight ) Some mid and not too low low-clouds are streaming south down the plains on the back side of the large upper low over the Great Lakes. So for now we don't seem them impacting the low temperature forecast for morning. except at the higher elevations of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. We expanded Freeze Warning a little south in southeast Okalhoma where many areas will get near freezing, and cooler valleys get below freezing.
220 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area through this evening.
17Z obs are showing a highly amplified upper level wind pattern with a large low and trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the intermountain west. At the surface a large area of high pressure over the northern plains is keeping the area sunny. An area of high pressure will be located in central Kansas towards morning and the winds should stay fairly light out of the north during the night. With the area of high pressure in place the winds should continue to be on the light side. Highs will be in the lower 50s in the east to the mid 60s in the far west.
A strong high pressure system will continue to bring well above normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, and light winds today. -RCG 1204 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (17/18Z TAF period) An expansive upper level high will continue to bring widespread VFR conditions, mostly clear skies, and light winds over the next 24 hours.
A bank of mid clouds across western and central South Dakota early this morning will continue a slow progression southwards due to steering flow from the north as we remain centered between a western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS upper low.
Rain chances should wind down late this evening for most areas as the upper-level low gets absorbed into the larger-scale trough over the eastern US. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over New Mexico, cutoff from NW flow aloft over the central CONUS. 24-hour MRMS totals suggest all of Southeast New Mexico and the lowlands of West Texas have generally received a quarter of an inch or better, negating fire weather concerns and reducing the rainfall deficit somewhat.
1110 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Water vapor imagery depicts a prominent ridge centered over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east. Sfc ridging extends to our north to Manitoba. Areas under clear skies are dipping below freezing. High pressure slides off to the east today, bringing light easterly winds to the region. Upper ridge remains over the west for the first half of the week, bringing dry conditions, light winds, and gradually warming temperatures.
1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night ) An upper low continues over the Great Lakes this morning with a strong upper ridge over the west. The upper low will move slowly east through Tuesday night. The cold front has moved through the state and cooler and drier air continues to work into the state from the north. High pressure moving into the area is of Canadian origin. Freezing temperatures are expected in north and parts of central Arkansas tonight into Tuesday morning and a Freeze Warning has been issued for this area and updated to include another row of counties south of the original area.
High pressure will remain in control throughout the short-term period.
1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (The rest of today ) Cool low level northerly flow is in place this morning with temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmer south) across the area. High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south, with readings in the low 60s near Tulsa.
146 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Water vapor analysis depicts deep upper trough over the the Great Lakes, slowly pivoting eastward. Upper ridging continues across the western half of the US with our forecast area on the eastern periphery of the ridge. A surface baroclinic zone is draped across western South Dakota with high pressure centered over southern Manitoba. Cool, northwest flow will continue through Tuesday making for a similar day, albeit warmer across northeastern Wyoming.
1104 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area this afternoon or evening.
Much colder for the period with temperatures dipping to near or below freezing tonight in most areas. Discussion: A deep upper low will remain over the Eastern Great Lakes region during the period. However, the anomalously cold airmass will still provide low temperatures near or below freezing in most areas and the freeze warning will be kept in place as is. Some short wave energy rotating around the upper low will brush northern areas early Tuesday. The low level moisture looks rather shallow and the thermal profile is not very favorable for snow showers, but there may be a few flurries squeezed out in the northwest flow mainly north early in the day.
With a similar set-up tonight compared to last night (highly amplified upper-trough to the east and upper- ridge to the west), expectations are for another ribbon of mid clouds to develop in the baroclinic zone across the central Dakotas.
This has dislodged the ridge sitting off the southeast coast and pushed it to the east.
321 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Deep upper trough remains over the Central Great Lakes region and extends down into the Tennessee Valley. By Thu afternoon, northwest upper flow will still be in place with some upper ridging setting up over the Southern Rockies. There is good model agreement that by Sat evening, another deep upper trough will be digging over the Western CONUS and into the Rockies by Sun afternoon/evening. This will eventually allow a cold front to surge through Sun afternoon into Sun night. GFS is much wetter along the cold front Sun night into Mon compared to the ECMWF, mainly due to the GFS holding more energy back over the Rockies.
/Issued 1206 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ High pressure is building into North Texas along with an influx of deeper layer dry air which will help to gradually erode the cloud cover through the afternoon. A mostly sunny and cool day is expected Tuesday with highs in the lower 60s. Tuesday night will likely feature some of the first freezing temperatures of the season, particularly in the outlying rural areas.
232 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A strong upper low is in place over the eastern Great Lakes today, with cyclonic flow reaching as far west through our middle of the CWA. Tonight through Tuesday, we will gradually transition away from the upper low's moisture, into the ridge axis. Thus, a cold breezy night is in store, with lows in the lower 20s over Iowa and MO, and mid to upper 20s over Illinois. Key Message: Warmer air is on the way.
1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Today and tonight) Rain chances will continue across much of the area today, with the highest rain chances remaining south of Interstate 20. Precipitation will end across southwest counties this evening, as the upper low over New Mexico continues to weaken and gets absorbed into the western periphery of a larger-scale upper trough situated over the eastern CONUS.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ High pressure is building into North Texas along with an influx of deeper layer dry air which will help to gradually erode the cloud cover through the afternoon. A mostly sunny and cool day is expected Tuesday with highs in the lower 60s. Tuesday night will likely feature some of the first freezing temperatures of the season, particularly in the outlying rural areas.
Thus, another Freeze Warning will be required for portions of the plains - specifically the areas that will see lows near or below freezing tonight, but did not see widespread temperatures below 28F (season ending killing freeze) last night. Denver metro should average a couple degrees warmer than last night with a slight increase in the drainage component, although some frost and near freezing temperatures can be expected again in low lying areas.
337 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A mainly dry cold front will move through tonight. Cold and dry high pressure is then expected Tuesday into late week with frost possible inland each morning through midweek. Low pressure could develop offshore this weekend. The strong cold front enters the CWA close to midnight and the cold dry air starts pouring in.