Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
343 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 An upper level ridge will remain centered over eastern UT and western CO tonight through Thursday. Similar weather is expected on Thursday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain areas. Temps on Thu are expected to be a little warmer than today, with highs acrs the southeast plains in the 90s, with some lower 100's along the lower Arkansas River valley. Not many adjustments required from earlier meteorological reasoning as upper ridging maneuvers over/near the 4-Corners region during the balance of the longer term.
328 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Upper level low over MO today is expected to gradually weaken and move eastward, with the trough axis passing across Middle TN tomorrow night. With plenty of deep moisture and the approaching/passing trough, the chance for locally heavy rain will continue tonight through tomorrow night.
The slow moving upper trough will translate slowly east putting our forecast area under southwest flow.
556 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 A weak 586 dm 500 mb low pressure over central MO will track slowly ENE into the central Ohio River Valley by sunset Thursday as it opens up.
313 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Rain chances increase tonight into Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
229 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Upper Low/trof drifting across area is trigger for tapping high theta/unstable air. Main impact is locally heavy rainfall and lightning, and this will continue to be the case until the Low/trof drifts completely out of the area.
The forecast models all have an upper level ridge in the western CONUS and there are a few waves that move around the ridge. On Thursday, there will be a cold front that moves into the forecast area during the day. The upper level ridge in the western CONUS drifts to the east through the period. There are several upper level waves that move over the ridge and into the forecast area.
1259 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Fairly quiet early this morning with high pressure remaining in control across the Great Leaks/Upper Mississippi River valley region. For today, will be watching a weak mid-level trough pass through southern Ontario/northern WI with increasing moisture plume filling into our area.
156 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather before moving east on Thursday. A cold front will bring the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s with cooler air across the higher terrain. Large, high-amplitude ridge over the western CONUS remains centered near 110W longitude and broad, weak upper troughing persists over the east. This weekend, we will be teased by a weak cold front, associated with whats left of upper trough over the central CONUS today. Earlier model forecasts of this front promised to bring slightly cooler and drier air to north GA.
Otherwise, clouds will increase late tonight into Thursday morning with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Current surface map indicating low pressure over se Sask and weak boundary extending from nw ND to the se corner of ND then into central Mn. Temperatures to remain mild overnight as thermal ridge axis will be parked over the Fa during half of the overnight and dewpoints remain above 60. High pressure and drier airmass will follow departing system on Thursday for less active and a bit cooler day.
Expect slightly warmer than normal across interior areas, and cool and cloudy conditions along the coast. A blocking high pressure over the great basin and an upper level low in the gulf of Alaska is bringing a persistent weather pattern to the west coast.
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 A closed area of low pressure in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere will continue to drift east today and tonight across the Missouri Ozarks. The low should begin to accelerate a bit late tonight as an upper level jet core punches south through the Plains and begins to kick the low east.
121 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will hold over the region through tonight providing quiet aviation conditions.
An upper ridge continues to stretch west over the Northern Gulf coast through Thursday. With less influence from the upper ridge over western portions of the forecast area, have put the highest chance of rain along and west of the MS/AL state line.
204 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Upper level low will slowly move across the area today into early Thursday. The GFS looks a bit more consistent with the movement and position of the low so have pretty much followed it.
225 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Hydro High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather before moving east on Thursday. A cold front will bring the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening.
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Latest 20z water vapor imagery shows high pressure expanding over the CO/UT/WY intersection and has shown indications of shifting eastward in time. However, residual outflow boundaries and a weak mid-level jet rounding the high pressure center may be enough to spark an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon around peak heating.
As large-scale ridging builds in the from west this dry air will factor into the eastward extent of the eventual convective activity.
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow aloft across the Central High Plains as a upper-level ridge builds across the western CONUS, stretching from the Four Corners region into British Columbia and Alberta.
107 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure centered just north of Lake Ontario will drift east into New England today. A weak trough will develop across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon then low pressure will track northeast into southern Ohio Thursday.
This front will lift back north as a warm front into VA on Thursday.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO BE STAGNANT WITH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA POSITIONED IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
240 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Storms fired along the peaks and ridges as expected late this morning into early afternoon with storms collapsing as they drift off the higher terrain. This would indicate the strong ridge of high pressure is directly overhead, limiting storms from drifting much into the valleys. Hot and dry conditions remain in place with H7 temps of 20C keeping triple digit heat in the lower valleys of southeast Utah and the Grand Valley.
Upper level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley has progressed only slightly eastward today, as an upper level ridge axis remains oriented east to west along the northern Gulf coast. This pattern has been in place for several days now, and like previous days, we see scattered to numerous showers and storms across north Alabama, closer to the trough and deeper moisture. Activity will diminish in coverage this evening, but with the trough inching closer tonight, isolated to scattered coverage could be possible across the north overnight. As the front and associated trough axis slowly slide southeastward through Central AL, expect increased chances of rain and thunderstorms.
Plenty of sunshine is expected during the morning hours like today then more isolated to scattered convection will develop as the moisture returns with the highest PoPs across southwest Florida where the moisture will be deepest and lowest PoPs across much of the Nature Coast where the drier air will hold on longest. Seasonable temperatures will continue with lows in the 70s and highs climbing into the lower to middle 90s thanks to the expected delay in convective development once again.
255 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Leading edge of a plume of mid/upper level moisture from over the Pacific has topped western CONUS upper ridging and is being held at bay for the time being over the upper midwest, waiting for lumbering southern stream upper low over Missouri to open and head east. Any activity that does attempt to settle southeast towards area will have a difficult time surviving the very dry airmass in place with area of low/mid level ridging through at least H7.
Upper level ridge was located over the Rockies/Four Corners region with a short wave trough over the Ozarks. SE Texas is in a weakness in the ridge so there have been a few showers and storms to pop up today. Now through the end of September the forecast hinges largely on 2 things - tropics and upper level ridging. Weak to no ridging usually yields rain chances. Strong ridging means no rain chances. And then an approaching tropical cyclone makes for a messy forecast scenario.
Heat index values were as high as the lower 90s. Models indicate the warm ridge axis (hot prod) to push across the cwa, ahead of a rather strong cold front pushing southeast into MN and WI.
A few showers are trying to form across the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, but even that activity is struggling this afternoon as the upper level high continues to build across Colorado and Wyoming.
West Central Texas remains in an upper level weakness between the high pressures centered across the Central Rockies and along the Southeast US. Situation changes little for Thursday, although the upper level trough may slip just a little farther east. (Thursday night through Wednesday) Upper level high pressure will be the dominating factor in our weather for the foreseeable future. Upper level flow will not be as favorable as it has been for the past couple of days, since it will become more northeasterly with time, as the ridge gradually expands easterly.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the waa regime lifting northeast towards the meandering upper low settled over MO this afternoon. Quiet weather anticipated tonight and Thursday as the northern stream upper trough across the Great Lakes, lifts the upper low eastward and ushers in ridging into the central plains. A drier and much warmer airmass advects into the low levels tomorrow afternoon, especially across north central KS where highs in the upper 90s are likely. Elsewhere readings peak in the low to middle 90s, resulting in heat indices in the 94 to 99 degree range.
Upper level ridging has weakened with a short wave trough pushing across the Ozarks.
Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure over the southeast CONUS, helping to drive this southerly flow and draw moisture into the region. Meanwhile, latest H5 analysis depicts a ridge axis over much of western CONUS, with an upper trough extending from northern Michigan southwestward to central Texas. The upper trough to the west of the region has resulted in southwesterly flow over the FA. Given the ample low level moisture, southerly flow, and cloud cover tonight, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. With highs again in the 80s on Thursday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue as the trough axis moves over the area throughout the day.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the afternoon into this evening as a 500mb ridge across the Texas coast provides subsidence across the area. /issued 404 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): South Texas comes under the influence of a Col over the next few days with High pressure to the west and east and lower pressure to the north and south of the region. Gulf moisture gradually increases and deepens the next 36 hours, however high pressure will continue to dominate today with little to no forcing for any significant convection.
237 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will slowly move off the east coast through Thursday.
217 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 There is an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with an upper low over Missouri. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 90s across the Permian Basin. The upper ridge builds more east on Thursday resulting in northeast flow aloft over the CWA. Models are indicating possible precipitation along the Lower Trans Pecos to the Davis Mountains and Big Bend area Thursday afternoon.
This stubborn NW flow pattern is slowly shifting SEward as the upper level ridge out West lifts NE, but stays put more or less. The lee troughing down the Western MS valley is narrowing as the dry air powers down the face of the ridge over the high plains, seen well on water vapor.
1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Drier conditions are likely today and tonight as a broad upper level high pressure center across the Intermountain West begins to expand slowly eastward into the Western High Plains. With little change expected to the air mass across the high plains, look for highs to the push the lower to mid 90s(F) this afternoon. Drier conditions are likely to continue across western Kansas through late Thursday as an upper level high pressure center remains stretched across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains.
Area in a region with ridge aloft to the north and drying to the west of a Tutt over Bahamas region helping to limit activity. Storm coverage expected to remain below normal with ridging surface and aloft. High temps in the low/mid 90s. The axis of high pressure over the Atlantic is positioned over Central Florida, providing for weak southerly flow.
Isolated showers have developed along the trof axis that was passing through northwest AR and eastern OK. Mid-level heights will build through the southern Plains in the wake of the exiting upper trof.
315 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 A weak 586 dm 500 mb low pressure over central MO will track slowly ENE into the central Ohio River Valley by sunset Thursday as it opens up.
High pressure centered over the Four Corners states will send some monsoon moisture into eastern and central Nevada for the next several days.
317 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Water vapor satellite imagery showing moisture rotating clockwise around the upper high situated over eastern Utah. Storms are having difficulty making much progress as they move off the higher terrain.
This seems reasonable given high instability, moderate shear, and a low-level trough moving through Thu evening. Given the projected location of the low level jet nosing into northern WI, a probable scenario is that the better supercells would develop up there and then develop into a more linear complex as it expands southeast.
Water vapor imagery showing the back end of upper trough exiting eastern MN at this time. Then the HRRR tries to develop something farther to the west as the cold front moves across North Dakota and drops that into central MN after 06z. Expected temperatures will still warm through the lower 90s into sc MN ahead of boundary Not much change to the extended part of the forecast.
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day, dry seasonable weather continues. Previous discussion below: High pressure will crest over the region today and begin to slide eastward this afternoon. Minimum temperatures will be a bit warmer with increasing humidity also, generally upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures Thursday will be a bit warmer than normal and close to Wednesday temps.
In fact, continued to advertise categorical PoPs for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening as the trough axis and weak surface reflection make their transition across the forecast area.
313 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Upper level trof extending from southwest Missouri into southwest Texas will bisect the area into Thursday. Upper ridge centered over the western U. will begin to expand eastward forcing the trof to the east as the week progresses. With the upper trof overhead along with weak diffluence aloft. As mentioned for Thursday, the upper level ridge to our west will start to build into the region, pushing the upper level trough eastward and creating a deformation zone across the region. Center of upper high will continue to slowly expand eastward into the weekend though the center will remain to our west. with the upper high anchored to our west the hottest temperatures will also stay to our west.
Water vapor imagery/500 mb analysis early this afternoon indicated an upper low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley with stronger mid-level west to northwest flow across the US/Canadian border region. So, some uncertainty exists with the storm coverage, especially with southwestward extent, but the highest thunderstorm chances still look to be across Wisconsin. Storms should move out of the area by later in the evening as the cold front passes.
Large area of strong high pressure accompanied by dry air thru the entire column remain centered over the Great Lakes region eastward into New England early this morning. Chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will also increase from NW to SE tonight as the eastern edge of the upstream instability axis and 850 mb theta E ridge lean into our CWA. Temps will be a few degrees warmer today as winds shift to the south and WAA kicks in ahead of the front. Meanwhile, a decent short wave and surface cold front are shown to drop across the region Thursday night.
The higher dew point air will shift east out of the area, relegating the 60's dew points to the extreme southeastern counties by late Thursday afternoon, with dewpoints in the 40s across the western counties. This in turn will allow for quicker rising temperatures curves during the day and overall warmer highs probably in the mid 90s.
311 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 As of 18Z, the center of a compact upper low was located just east of Lansing.
331 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 224 PM CDT Quiet/dry conditions, with clear to partly cloudy skies and below normal temps expected as high pressure continues to slowly build south across the region. Tighter gradient on the fringe of this high will allow a steady north northeast wind to persist, and support continued dangerous beach conditions through the period. Rodriguez 224 PM CDT High pressure will continue to slowly build across the region Saturday night. Rodriguez High pressure will continue in the region this afternoon and into tomorrow. WEW/ELP 329 PM CDT High pressure to the north will continue to build south across the region throughout the weekend, with northerly winds persisting through this period.
An east coast US Mid-upper trough will dig Swd over the southeast states.
140 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Today through the weekend looks mostly rain free, as high pressure builds down from Canada into the Great Lakes. Most lows will be in the low 60s. Saturday increasing sunshine with highs in the low and mid 70s.
The upper air pattern essentially remains unchanged with a ridge over the west and MN/WI in northwest flow. high pressure located over Lake Superior will slowly meander south southwestward toward southwest WI over the next 48 hours. Issued at 348 CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Dominant high pressure will foster benign weather through the weekend, with seasonal temperatures, light winds, and mostly sunny skies.
A cold front was located to our northwest. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to blossom across the area as a cold front moves through Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening.
Suspect that dew point temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s which is likely just a bit below normal for this time of year. Highs on Saturday should range from the lower 80s around the Iowa Great Lakes to near 90 around Chamberlain.
245 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 The upper level high will remain nearly squared over the region today and tomorrow. An increase in thunderstorm coverage could occur on Saturday despite the upper ridge still being in place. This upper ridge will amplify and become more expansive covering much of the western CONUS beginning late in the weekend. The center of the ridge will redevelop over the Great Basin at 500mb.
As far as the rest of the synoptic environment goes, the ridge of high pressure will continue to slowly migrate east, allowing a steady stream of moisture to persist through the weekend. Additionally, models have been consistent in bringing a midlevel closed low across the Four Corners region overnight.
Cold front is getting a strong southward push, and precip has almost completely exited central Kentucky. Maybe a few lingering showers near Bowling Green and near Lake Cumberland, but those are fading fast as cooler and drier air spills into the region. Lows tonight look to cool into the lower 60s across southern IN and the northern Bluegrass region with lower-mid 60s across central and southern KY. For Saturday/Saturday night, Canadian high pressure will build into the region ushering in much cooler and much less humid conditions. Under mostly sunny skies, highs on Saturday will range from the mid- upper 70s in southern IN/northern KY to the lower 80s south of the WK/BG Parkways.
205 PM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017 High pressure ridging aloft will remain in place through this weekend.
Upper level high pressure was centered over the southern Plains today. Water vapor loops show numerous disturbances rotating around the high located over the Great Basin, New Mexico and east Texas.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across Deep South Texas through the period with VFR conditions expected. VFR conditions to prevail today and tonight as high pressure continues to build over the region. /issued 403 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Latest model trends remain on track with the mid and upper level ridge indicated to expand across Texas the next 24-36 hours and beyond. As the atmosphere drys out and the ridge axis builds more directly overhead heights and thicknesses increase and 850mb temperatures inch upward into the 22-24C range which will translate to many locations exceeding 100 degrees both today and Saturday.
Building high pressure will return dry and seasonable weather for the later half of Saturday through the start of the work week. Expect coverage to increase as the upper low pressure digs across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon, amplifying the flow and further pulling deep moisture across the region, especially south and east of Pittsburgh. Lingering deformation precipitation in the terrain should taper off toward midday as upper ridging starts to push over the area.
Tomorrow will likely be a touch warmer than today as we'll have a west wind for most of the day. Although the ambient temperature will be warmer tomorrow, the west wind will also likely allow for more mixing to occur. It is also worth noting that due to the higher temperatures expected tomorrow, a heat advisory may be required for the Brazos Valley based on forecast ambient temperature and not necessarily the heat index. The forecast gets a little bit more interesting tomorrow afternoon as a cold front backdoors into the area from the northeast.
Nearly all the guidance is suggesting the same thing overnight as the mid level trough edges southward, we will see increasing low level flow help to increase moisture advection and convergence. I did go with a 1-2 degree cooler guid on lows tonight to account for precip cooled air. Temps were adjusted from the prev forecast to show central and N sections getting warmer due to more sunshine. Southern areas will be cooler due to clouds/precip.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): No significant changes to the short term forecast today as a strong H5 ridge remains perched over much of the Southern Plains. The high pressure system will continue to dominate the weather pattern across Deep South Texas and the RGV essentially shutting off any moisture source. Given the strength of the ridge, the 850mb temps, and dry atmosphere, triple digit heat will prevail from the I-69E/Hwy77 corridor and west toward Zapata.
At the surface, a low pressure area over the Columbia Basin will cause increased pressure gradient along the Cascades to translate to G15-20kts at DLS, BDN, RDM especially til 06z.
217 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough and low over the lower Great Lakes this morning and ridging over the Rockies and troughing off the west coast. Upper ridging will move into the upper Great Lakes on Sat. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast overall and went with the adjmos guidance for lows tonight with warmer readings near the Great Lakes shorelines and cooler in the interior.