Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
458 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL VACILLATE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN SUBTROPICS.
AND TUESDAY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MEXICO ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH TO WORRY ABOUT FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE SINCE IT HAS BEEN DRIER OUT THERE OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO.
/ISSUED 655 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
102 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING MILD AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN COOL BUT DRY AIR FOR MID WEEK. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS ESP NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW ON MONDAY MORNING. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD SOMEWHAT THROUGH MONDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /29 HIGH LEVEL UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. MONDAY NIGHT AS WEST ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
357 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS THE WARM FRONT NEVER REALLY GETS THERE, SO TEMPS WILL RUN ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS COULD SEE UP TO 6".
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THAT AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.
CURRENT SYNOPSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE GULF COAST WHILE AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW IS TEMPORARILY LOCKED WEST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING HIGHS. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE DUE TO WATER TEMP INFLUENCES AS ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS HIGHS LIMITED TO MID/UPPER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO MONDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.
216 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF UTAH MONDAY.
313 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 WELL ESTABLISHED WSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE DECIDED TO GO A BIT ABOVE EVEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE LOW LEVEL FETCH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. THUS BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE PAH FORECAST AREA ON TUE. BEHIND IT WILL BE A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL BE OVERCOME BY INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING DEEP SOUTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL RETURN THE TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
104 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Unseasonably warm conditions can be expected today due to an upper level ridge over the region, only some high level cirrus clouds, southwesterly surface winds, and warm 850 mb temperatures of 14-18 degees C at 18Z Monday. Went close to the warmer GFS MOS guidance for highs today.
BUT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 249 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY AS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL BE CALLING FOR HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 40S. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE (1030 MB) MOVING OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SET US UP FOR COLD NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS.
Tonight a cold front will approach from the northwest, reaching the Ohio River around sunrise.
106 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
415 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR KPIR WILL HELP DRAW COOLER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD LIMITING MIXING.
AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AREA WIDE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INCREASES.
627 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS THE WARM FRONT NEVER REALLY GETS THERE, SO TEMPS WILL RUN ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS COULD SEE UP TO 6".
410 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA LYING UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE SFC MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT HELD IN CHECK WITH MORE OF A WRLY COMPONENT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO OUR WEST.
AS COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTH TODAY THERMAL AXIS WILL FOCUS OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THEN MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
433 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
307 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL THOUGH SEEMS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WARMER AIR AND ONLY VERY LIGHT STUFF IN THE COLDER AIR FOR -SN.
509 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWRD FROM THE GULF HAS RESULTED IN THIS WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB COMFORTABLY INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE REGION. AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREA WIDE WITH INCREASING S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT RAIN PRODUCER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING SOUTH OF BAJA THIS MORNING FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWRD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND BIG BEND COUNTRY INTO CNTRL TX.
EXPECTED SHALLOW INVERSIONS WILL MIX FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LEE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH MONTANA TO REACH THE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FOOTHILLS WITH MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP BELOW 6000 FEET. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME FOG IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH STRATUS DECK BANKING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SOUTH FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL BEND WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MOVING NORTHWARD. WILL THERE BE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO OVERCOME DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
428 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NO SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THIS PD AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. UPSTREAM TEMPS YDA UNDERNEATH LL THERMAL RIDGE REACHED INTO THE MID TO UPR 70S. MAINLY DRY/SEASONAL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD ON THE SW FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A REALITY CHECK TEMP WISE THANKS TO A DECENT SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT.
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR TODAY. AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT TO CROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE OVER SODAK MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INITIALLY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL WI AS WARM FRONT THIS MRNG WITH INCREASING S TO SW WINDS.
TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW. AN H500 SHORT WAVE WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT.
BY THIS EVENING, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOMORROW THAT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN NRN HARNEY COUNTY AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS BAND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. BUT BAKER COUNTY BECOMES INVOLVED AS WELL AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT. AS A NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW. AND BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE NEWER GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT COMING IN IT MADE SENSE TO US TO TREND DOWNWARD. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG WITH THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AS THEY WERE YDAY EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SWD OVER FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN INTO MID WEEK ALLOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING MID LEVEL S/W DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES INTO THE WEEKEND BUT GENERALLY SHOW LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN COAST MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SHIFTS SOUTH TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS INTO MID WEEK.
300 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
106 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON TODAY. LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.
333 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO SRN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS AFTERNOON. AND PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS AT THE SURFACE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE KS/CO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH HIGHS TOMORROW REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER NORTHEAST SENDING A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
324 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
129 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY THEN WILL RETREAT SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE NORTH BAY AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A FEW 60S NOTED ALONG THE COAST BUT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS INSTEAD OF SOUTHERLY AS THEY AREA ALOFT ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY (OR CALM OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES). THIS HIGH SHOULD DRIFT SSE TODAY AND BE OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS BY 6 PM TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN MEANS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MEANDERING BAJA LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER. THE RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UP INTO THE MID LEVELS (NOSING IN OVER SETX) SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY AND AND TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOOR.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH STRONG JET STREAK ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. VERY MILD EARLY MRNG TEMPS SOUTH OF THE LOW. BUT COOLER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NWRN SD. MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 40S.
AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDS MORNING.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WELL MOISTENED TNITE AS A FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROF PASSAGE.
LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL BUT TIGHT UPPER TROUGH SPINNING ACROSS OLD MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHWRS SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
404 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 THE NRN OLD MX CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS E THIS AFTERNOON. THUS SATURATING THE LOWER LAYERS FROM THE TOP DOWN. THEY DO INDICATE GREATER MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER 06Z ENTERING LOWER E TX/WCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER SE TX/S LA WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES E. WITH THE TROUGH EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING ITS HEELS WILL BE ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER WRN ALBERTA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
630 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH IT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 10 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE 30S. MOZLEY SNOW FADES AWAY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SHORT WAVE IS WELL EAST OF THE STATE AND UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST HOWEVER AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
Mostly clear skies and breezy southwest winds have aided in boosting daytime temperatures into the upper 40s in snow free areas while holding about 10 degrees cooler over the snowpack. Next upper system and associated cold high pressure shifting slowly southeastward out of the Canadian high plains and will be the snow and wind maker for the day on Wednesday. Snow begins along the highway 36 corridor between 6 and 9am and could bring issues for morning commuters, while along I70 brings a later start generally around 9-10am. With light winds and a snow covered ground, tried to trend temps a few degrees cooler than consensus guidance in the single digits to a few degrees below zero for northern areas.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 55 30 41 / 0 10 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 26 54 30 35 / 0 10 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 27 53 28 36 / 0 10 50 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 53 27 33 / 0 10 40 30.
A BREAK IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP OVERNIGHT AND MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY CAUSING STRONG NORTH WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
609 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS PICK UP ON THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THAT AND GIVE AN INCREASE TO OUR CLOUD COVER. CURRENT VALUES HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
EARLY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN COAHULIA MEXICO. ISOLATED -SHRA AND PATCHY -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW OPENS AND TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OPENING TO A WAVE AND MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
657 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY.
558 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 227 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED IN SW TEXAS. THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT -RA TO PERSIST THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. /ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ A RAW DAY OUT THERE PER THE OVERCAST AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS REGULATED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. THE LOW-MID LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES. THAT OF MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED BACK ACROSS THE STATE WITH LEESIDE AND SOUTHERN GULF TROUGHING WEDGED ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN WARMER REGIME AND ARAS OF GUSTIER WINDS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ELEVATED TO AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET OVER THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ANOTHER EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN 15 TO 20 MPH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SHARPLY NORTHWARD.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW WIND CHILLS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AND NEAREST THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA/IOWA.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS NOW GRADUALLY MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY MOISTEN MORE OF THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT TO GROUND OVERNIGHT.