Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In response, surface winds will veer to the south -- allowing for a warmer and more moisture-laden air mass to advance into southern Missouri. Still, warmer air will begin to advect into the region. Expect overnight lows to range from the low-to-mid 40s under overcast skies. With a good wing of warm-air advection entering the region Monday afternoon, surface temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 50s ahead of an approaching cold front.
A Pacific cold front remains on track to move across the area this afternoon.
Temps look to have some moderation upward with most areas in the low 60s for highs.
Monday will mark the last of the recent mild days with the next cold front moving into NE OK by early afternoon and through western AR by late Monday evening.
A weak surface trof will move slowly eastward through the the forecast area from today. Seasonably mild temperatures in the lower to mid 50s are expected. Warm advection will get underway again Monday ahead of the next cold front that will be moving slowly east into MO/IL.
Underneath this is a cold front draped across the northeastern third of Montana which is retreating to the east and gradually shallowing out and generating cloud-to-ground fog. Up stream of this flow is a Pacific trough over British Columbia that runs northeast into modified arctic air over northern Alberta. Farther West a large ridge is developing over the Gulf of Alaska. As warmer air overspreads the region this afternoon a slight warm up to near freezing is anticipated for the Hi-Line while pockets of 40s may be possible along the Missouri Breaks. By the afternoon hours the pacific trough will arrive and bring a slug of moisture and some lift that should generate scattered snow/rain showers.
The upper air pattern indicates dry northwesterly flow aloft east of a flat EPAC ridge. Under a quiet weather pattern today will be the 5th day of a gradual warming trend with highs forecast to reach the low to mid 70s in and around Phoenix and the mid to upper 70s in SW AZ and SE CA.
High pressure moving into the Atlantic will support a light southeast wind flow and above normal temperatures across all of west central and southwest Florida today. A slow increase in mid and high clouds can be expected as a short wave trough approaches from the west, with an uptick in moisture (noted on 12Z raob data) supporting some isolated diurnal light showers (Pops 20% at best) over inland area during the afternoon. Temperatures will run above normal with afternoon highs climbing into the lower to mid 80s. High pressure moving into the Atlantic northeast of the marine waters will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light east southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
334 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 Mostly sunny skies will start off Sunday with high pressure passing through the area. Winds will be light and variable, becoming southeast into Sunday night as high pressure passes to the east. Increasing clouds and snow chances on Sunday night as a broad upper level trough traverses from west to east over the northern and central Plains. There will be weaker forcing in-between these two main areas of precipitation, so light snow will be possible there as well with a slight possibility of a little freezing drizzle mixing in as there is a small potential for a loss of ice aloft at times. A pair of upper level short wave trofs will move across the region Monday night. There will be a small window for some light freezing drizzle, but no ice accumulation is expected.
A cold front will be pushing in behind the system as winds shift to the northwest, although the stronger Arctic air surge holds off a bit longer.
A mid level high pressure to our south will continue to move eastward which will cause weak ridging in the mid to upper levels across South Texas. Temperatures are expected to continue warming the next couple of days with most of the area in the low to mid 80's by Monday.
603 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 A weak cold front was dropping through the southern portion of the forecast area early this morning. Cooler daytime highs for today, ranging from the 20s to low 30s. Another complicating factor will be warmer air nosing in from the south during the day, which would yield a greater potential for rain in our far south Monday afternoon. As a result, there will be some light freezing drizzle concerns at times. This will be a somewhat wetter/heavier variety of snow with snow ratios around 10:1 given daytime highs in the low to mid 30s.
The next system that we've been watching for the middle of this week still appears to be on track with the initial cold front moving south through the Panhandle and South Plains region tomorrow afternoon and evening.
652 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Mostly cloudy and not as cold today with temperatures trending warmer through the first part of the week.
458 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep, east-west oriented ridge centered over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with deep westerlies in the mid and upper troposphere over the Florida Keys and adjacent Coastal waters. A lower-tropospheric anticyclone was centered over the Atlantic east of the Florida Peninsula, with the associated surface center just offshore the Carolinas. The weather this week will feature a period of clearing and lower rain chances today through Washington's Birthday as the low-level ridge shifts northward. Thereafter, the Caribbean ridge will amplify and intensify, while a surface anticyclone also strengthens over the western North Atlantic.
700 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A trough of low pressure has returned light precipitation to the area for today.
533 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 Mostly sunny skies will start off Sunday with high pressure passing through the area. Winds will be light and variable, becoming southeast into Sunday night as high pressure passes to the east. Increasing clouds and snow chances on Sunday night as a broad upper level trough traverses from west to east over the northern and central Plains. There will be weaker forcing in-between these two main areas of precipitation, so light snow will be possible there as well with a slight possibility of a little freezing drizzle mixing in as there is a small potential for a loss of ice aloft at times. A pair of upper level short wave trofs will move across the region Monday night. There will be a small window for some light freezing drizzle, but no ice accumulation is expected.
Expect overnight lows similar to this morning -- in the lower to mid 20s. With the Tri-State area situated well-downstream of this feature, expect little change in sensible weather -- aside from a 5-10F increase in temperatures via light southerly flow /warm advection/ on the eastern periphery of a modest lee trough in Colorado.
With temperatures below freezing in these areas, patchy freezing fog could potentially result in some slick spots on roadways. Some mid- level clouds were streaming over north central KS early this morning as a mid-level trough skimmed eastward across the Northern Plains, so this cloud cover was helping to keep conditions a bit warmer. With the cloud cover in place, lows should be a bit warmer in the mid 30s. Monday into Monday night a mid-level trough will track out of Canada and deepen over the Northern and Central Plains before shifting eastward toward the Great Lakes region.
Southeasterly flow in the lower levels and slightly higher moisture will support isolated showers along the Treasure Coast this morning, and as moisture increases gradually throughout the day elsewhere, will keep mention of showers across the area during this afternoon.
Even with warmer temperatures, winds will be strong enough for some blowing and drifting snow. Showers overnight and in the morning will favor the mountains, but become more widespread in the afternoon as the low is over the top of us and we have some weak instability.
420 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Mostly cloudy and not as cold today with temperatures trending warmer through the first part of the week.
340 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 A weak cold front was dropping through the southern portion of the forecast area early this morning. Cooler daytime highs for today, ranging from the 20s to low 30s. Another complicating factor will be warmer air nosing in from the south during the day, which would yield a greater potential for rain in our far south Monday afternoon. As a result, there will be some light freezing drizzle concerns at times. This will be a somewhat wetter/heavier variety of snow with snow ratios around 10:1 given daytime highs in the low to mid 30s.
358 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 A broad, low-amplitude trough is sitting over much of the CONUS early this morning. The upper-level trough axis is approaching the MS River Valley at this time, providing weak, synoptic-scale forcing for ascent across the region. Temperatures on Monday will be the warmest of the next 7 days on the whole with highs in the low/mid 60s.
A short wave trough is begining to push into southern BC early this morning. Given the dry air at the low levels and surface RH values around 50-70% this likely fell as virga. The short wave trough will push into the Great Basin on Monday strengthening the pressure gradient over the region.
400 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 Latest sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure off the swrn LA coastline this morning, otherwise high pressure centered over the srn Atlantic region ridging swwd across the sern CONUS is trying to hold on. With the WAA setup which has been in place since late yesterday, temperatures are quite a bit warmer than 24 hours ago, with readings primarily in the 50s to lower 60s.
The 16/00Z KMFR sounding indicated a freezing level of 6200 feet, so the snow level then was around 5200 feet. The long wave ridge will build offshore beginning Sunday, and northwest flow aloft will return over the area. A thermal trough will set up near the coast Sunday night, kicking off several days of low level easterly flow, which will dry out the air mass considerably.
612 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Aviation - Some sunshine today - Snow to rain Monday Night - Cold midweek then warming toward weekend -- Some sunshine today-- A cold front will slowly sink south across our area this morning and as it does so it should clear the clouds for a few hours at least. Skies should be partly cloudy this afternoon behind the cold front since the air behind this front is not cold enough for lake effect snow showers.
1126 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A trough of low pressure will bring light precipitation to the area today.
A cold front front will push across the Panhandles late tonight through Monday morning shifting the winds to the north and northeast becoming breezy by early Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will remain above normal but slightly cooler from Sunday's high temps.
Most of the CWA had dewpoints still in the low to mid 30s, but down in central OK were some mid 40s dewpoints. Despite the mid level cloud cover, temperatures have still managed to reach the low to mid 50s so far this afternoon.
The moist axis will likely curl around the eastern and n northern side of the low pressure circulation. Cooler air will arrive in the later period.
302 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A weak front will cross the area this evening, followed by another area of high pressure Monday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Broad high pressure remains in play at the surface with a rather flat mid level pattern over the area. Overnight temps will be in the lower to mid 60s, with temperatures warming into the 80s on Monday afternoon with a mix of clouds and sun, and with moderate to breezy south southeast winds.
Monday a cold front will sweep through western Kansas through the day.
The development of lee-side troughing to our northwest and the associated downslope winds will result in dry weather with breezy afternoon winds. Tomorrow, the upper level flow becomes more zonal ahead of a surface cold front expected to move through the CWA during the afternoon. The initial impact of the cold front will be a shift in wind direction to the north and an increase in wind speeds to 15 to 20 mph.
Tonight and Monday The focus of the short term forecast will be the onset of our next winter system as a low pressure system heads towards central and southern Wisconsin.
Attention then turns to the deepening low pressure lifting across Nebraska and into Iowa late tonight and lingering precipitation across Iowa through much of the day on Monday before lifting east. Snow accumulations are largely along and north of the highway 20 corridor where one to three inches may be possible. Regardless, wintry precipitation chances will still be greatest along and north of the highway 20 corridor. After this system lifts east of the area the rest of the week is fairy quiet as high pressure settles across the area.
The shower chances continue at least through Monday across portions of the area as a cold front sweeps through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
A cold front is still expected to reach the northern CWA Monday night, albeit a bit later than models previously indicated.
If the sun does get some time from behind the cloud cover, that may help locations get a few degrees warmer as well.
Underneath this is a cold front draped across the northeastern third of Montana which is retreating to the east and gradually shallowing out and generating cloud-to-ground fog. Up stream of this flow is a Pacific trough over British Columbia that runs northeast into modified arctic air over northern Alberta. Farther West a large ridge is developing over the Gulf of Alaska. As warmer air overspreads the region this afternoon a slight warm up to near freezing is anticipated for the Hi-Line while pockets of 40s may be possible along the Missouri Breaks. By the afternoon hours, the Pacific trough will arrive and bring a slug of moisture and some lift that should generate scattered snow/rain showers.
This has been a challenging area the last couple days with most models poorly handling the low level moisture. Keeping with the trend of the last couple days, kept MaxTs on the cooler side of guidance, albeit MaxTs may need adjusting depending how the low clouds/fog continue to trend today. Otherwise, a cold front pushes through the state tomorrow and will bring a slight chance of a light rain showers, mainly across far southeast KS.
225 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 The warm front across the area will be overrun again this evening by another weak wave at H5.
As this feature begins to pull away later tonight, an area of high pressure will begin to build back into the region. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across the interior sections.
223 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Light rain will diminish this evening as the upper trough shifts east.
The high clouds will clear out by this evening as the front dips south. The 16/00Z KMFR sounding indicated a freezing level of 6200 feet, so the snow level then was around 5200 feet. The long wave ridge will build offshore beginning Sunday, and northwest flow aloft will return over the area. A thermal trough will set up near the coast Sunday night, kicking off several days of low level easterly flow, which will dry out the air mass considerably.
Still expect to see the highest rainfall totals across the CSRA and southern/eastern Midlands. With weak high pressure ridging conditions remain mostly dry. Increasing clouds Monday night will keep temperatures up with lows mostly in the high 40s and 50s. Southwest flow returns late Monday as low pressure across the Central Plains will continue to deepen as it moves east. The accompanying cold front from this system will stretch into the southeastern US, allowing for additional low level moisture to be transported into the forecast area.
The speed of the front will dictate how high temps rise in the southern half, with cooler highs certainly possible.
A weak surface cold front continues to slowly sag southward, currently just south of the Ohio River across portions of northern KY. As for the fcst, not much to change overall as temperature trends were on track for the most part, outside of slightly cooler trends along the I81 corridor, thus some tweaks were made there. Clouds will increase through tonight as a weak cold front drops into Kentucky and stalls. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 41 61 54 65 / 10 10 10 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 39 60 49 63 / 10 10 10 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 53 39 60 50 62 / 10 10 10 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 37 57 44 61 / 10 10 10 10 80.
Monday a cold front will sweep through western Kansas through the day. The aforementioned disturbance and cold front will pass across the high plains Monday night.
Guidance spread over the next several days is rather narrow yielding excellent confidence of dry, slightly warmer than normal conditions throughout the region. During the middle of the week, a kicker wave intensifying from the Gulf of Alaska will dislodge the blocking Pacific ridge eastward.
with gusts in the low 40 mph range at County Road 402 and Halleck Ridge. Only change with the afternoon package was to add central Laramie County to the High Wind Warning.
A weak surface cold front continues to slowly sag southward, currently just south of the Ohio River across portions of northern KY. As for the fcst, not much to change overall as temperature trends were on track for the most part, outside of slightly cooler trends along the I81 corridor, thus some tweaks were made there. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 61 54 65 46 / 10 10 60 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 60 49 63 45 / 10 10 30 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 39 60 50 62 42 / 10 10 40 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 57 44 61 41 / 10 10 10 80 50.
Not seeing much of a temperature gradient within the vicinity of the boundary, but winds have generally been light and out of the west and north on the cool side, while staying out of the southwest on the warmer side. Rain showers may begin developing north of the Ohio River by late morning ahead of a cold front in the Midwest. Broad upper trough axis is forecast to be in place across the eastern US at the start of the period.
Rain chances increase, especially over the far northern zones Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front along with strengthening low level warm air advection and weak upper level divergence. As surface winds weaken tonight in response to a weakening low pressure system over the northeast Gulf, there will be the potential for at least patchy dense fog to develop.
In the wake of this system, high pressure is expected to move into the area for the rest of the week.
1037 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 High pressure will move offshore this morning. A weak front will cross the area this evening, followed by another area of high pressure Monday.
Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower and upper 50s, with temps warming further southward.
Southwest winds of 5 to 12 mph this evening will slowly veer to the west after midnight then northwest at 10 to 20 mph around sunrise Monday morning as a cold front moves through. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 20s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 20s to low 30s east of the CO/KS border. Could see some locally lower values where winds may go calm for a few hours near the cold front and shift to northwest winds.
The chance for rain is ending at this writing, but will build back at a slow pace during our Monday until we go back to a SW flow late in the day ahead of the approaching cold front.
1227 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A trough of low pressure will bring light precipitation to the area today.
Will maintain the current low temperature forecast which ranges from the low teens north to low 20s far south. Will maintain current snow accumulations with 1 to 2 inches possible far north to less than an inch south to the higher terrain near the M-59 corridor. Once this system passes, a large area of high arctic high pressure will build across the CONUS and lead to a rather quiet stretch of weather for Southeast Lower Michigan.
245 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough encompassing much of the CONUS, with an upper ridge building along the West Coast and a ridge over the Atlantic. Drier air in the lower to mid levels was helping to erode earlier cloud cover, with breaks in the clouds allowing for temps to warm into the mid to upper 50s. As the axis of the trough moves eastward tonight, flow aloft will become more zonal, with clouds increasing once again this evening. Given the persistent cloud cover overnight, lows will be mild once again, with temps only falling into the lower 40s. Closer to home, southerly flow over the TN Valley will filter in warmer and more moist air. Temps will warm into the lower 60s by the afternoon.
445 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Low pressure will lift northeastward and farther away from the forecast area tonight. Ridging will briefing dominate Monday.
I have boosted POPS accordingly with the highest POPS centered from eastern MO into west central IL. Temperatures are expected to be above freezing. This stems from the fact that isentropic lift ahead of the advancing cold front will be the main driver, and any large scale ascent is weak and really doesn't seem to come into play until later in the afternoon. As stated yesterday, all of this precipitation appears to be pre-frontal, thus the rain should end west to east on Monday night as the cold front advances eastward.
Temperatures will be a little warmer on Monday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. By Monday night, a stronger cold front will move into the region bringing a better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Mid-South.
415 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A weak cold front cutting SW/NE through KY was bringing the region mainly cloudy skies late this afternoon, with a few light showers. This will occur as low pressure moves through the central CONUS and starts to bring overrunning east to our area. Even so, a fairly mild day is forecast, with warm air advection aiding in bringing temperatures into the 50s or near 60 in the afternoon, with what's left of the frontal boundary moving back north through the area as a warm front. The aforementioned central CONUS system will move northeast over the Great Lakes on Monday night and its cold front will approach us from the northwest.
At this time, the low clouds and fog are expected to remain just east of KGUY and well east of KDHT and KAMA. Finally, a cold front will move across the TAF sites late tonight through mid morning Monday with north and eventually northeast winds in its wake. A cold front front will push across the Panhandles late tonight through Monday morning shifting the winds to the north and northeast becoming breezy by early Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will remain above normal but slightly cooler from Sunday's high temps.
The warm front across the area will be overrun again this evening by another weak wave at H5.
516 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Light rain will diminish this evening as the upper trough shifts east.
The mild temperatures of this afternoon will be heading downward as we approach mid week as a couple of low pressure systems drop through the region. Mild temperatures tonight combined with increasing clouds and cooler air lagging behind system suggest most precipitation will fall as rain across our CWA. However with temperatures remaining near or above freezing overnight, we should see a rebound into the 40s for most of our area before cooler air invades for the afternoon.
This system will drag a cold front S through the region as well. As the trough moves SE of the area Mon.
A slight chance of light drizzle/rain and also patchy fog will again be possible late tonight and Monday morning before a cold front moves into the CWA. The shower chances continue at least through Monday across portions of the area as a cold front sweeps through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late Monday afternoon into Monday night.