Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE OZARK REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE ARE A FEW IMPULSES. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST MO DOWN INTO SW OK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL KS. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED A MENTION OF FOG WITH THE THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY COME ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGHING AND WARMING TEMPS. BY WED THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS THE TROUGH INCHES EAST.
FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA A TROPICAL AIR MASS COMBINES WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS PRECIP IS IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
931 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IT. NUMEROUS HI-RES MODELS HAVE INDICATED THIS LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. SOUTHEAST WYOMING REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR TRENDS AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
525 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM.
AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S. AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WWD. BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA. NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA. IN ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY.
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Look for the wind to decrease early this evening as our fast moving cold front moves out of the Inland Northwest. 00Z TAFS: Strong west or southwest wind gusts are starting to diminish as the cold front moves east to Montana. The upper level trough will slide over the region tonight into Sunday with scattered showers possible along with isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
Slightly cooler air has moved in behind the front primarily due to the increased cloud cover. The upper low will slowly migrate eastward with time as ridging aloft begins to build back over the Central/Southern Plains.
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A PROMINENT UPPER LOW IN THE GULF.
THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER E-CNTRL MO WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDED NEWD INTO ERN WI. LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WEAK AREA OF HI PRES JUST OFF TO OUR EAST AND UPR LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD WI. WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE MAY FLATTEN A LITTLE MIDWEEK BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER IN THE WEEK.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. 700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
709 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN.
AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS.
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BILOXI MS.
/ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER. THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD. DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW. THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW.
919 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEK. TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM INVOF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE WEAKNESS FOR THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN RESIDING ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO LIFT NE. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. HAD TO CONTINUE LOW END POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BUT THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS.
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF IT WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS.
However, given the upper trough west of the area, isolated to scattered showers will be possible through the overnight hours with the greatest concentration over the northwest portions of the area.
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 TROUGH W. RIDGE E. THE 500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT TODAY. MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDING AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE MIDWEST. MUCH OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH SAW FROM 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BEYOND THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MISS VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TOMORROW.
725 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING TROUGH. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI.
AT 2 PM MDT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN CORNER OF OREGON. COOLER TONIGHT BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD. MUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NRN ZONES.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME DECENT CIRRUS OVERNIGHT COMING IN FROM C TX AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE RED RIVER. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE AFD FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE HAD MOVED LITTLE AND STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE PRIMARY GULF COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION --RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS PRECIP IS IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL.
840 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO EVEN THOUGH SATURDAY WAS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH OF 84 AT NEWPORT BEACH WAS ONE DEGREE SHY OF THEIR RECORD. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/ UPPER RIDGE ALREADY ESSENTIALLY GONE.
921 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT NEARLY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LED TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING. WHILE A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
741 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
811 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
ZCZC LAXWRKAFD 050253 TTAA00 KLAX DDHHMM 910 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER HOT DAY INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND.
The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge across south FL, and a low pressure system centered over southeast NC. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed that the airmass across our region has moistened over the past 12 hours, with a weak trough to our west across the central Gulf Coast.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND EXTENDS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION TROUGH DISSIPATES. THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
930 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015 COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1009 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
737 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
636 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE HANGING ON ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE GRT LKS. A WAVE COMPLEX PUSHING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS WAS TRYING TO UNDERCUT MID CONUS OMEGA RIDGE. BULK OF 12Z RUN MODELS SEEM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE AND IT/S LEE SIDE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE WEST PLAINS UPPER WAVE COMPLEX. BOTH UPPER AND LOWER RIDGING MAY HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL CWA THAN THE MO VORT MAX WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS STAYING MAINLY DRY ON WED WITH CONTINUED HIGHER BASED DEBRIS CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE.
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT.
1058 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE HANGING ON ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE GRT LKS. A WAVE COMPLEX PUSHING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS WAS TRYING TO UNDERCUT MID CONUS OMEGA RIDGE. BULK OF 12Z RUN MODELS SEEM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE AND IT/S LEE SIDE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE WEST PLAINS UPPER WAVE COMPLEX. BOTH UPPER AND LOWER RIDGING MAY HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL CWA THAN THE MO VORT MAX WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS STAYING MAINLY DRY ON WED WITH CONTINUED HIGHER BASED DEBRIS CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE.
1129 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
LTST SFC MAP SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS MIGRATED NWD TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND INCREASING PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE COUPLED WITH COT'D WARM TEMPS ALOFT PUT AN EARLY END TO LAND BASED PCPN THIS EVENING.
1252 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WED WL SEE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MV ACRS CWA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DVLPNG DRG THE DIURNAL HTG OF THE DAY. TEMPS IN DOWNEAST WL CLIMB INTO THE M70S THO COOLER ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INTRODUCE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS ROOTED WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH TROUGHING ONLY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE ADVERTISED RETURN OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO A POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS TAKEN PLACE.
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
738 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
1233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
750 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ITS PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER JET NOSING INTO FAR NORTHWEST UTAH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MAKES THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER STILL SUSCEPTIBLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SAID TROUGH HAVE INFILTRATED MUCH OF UTAH THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH REMAINS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
1106 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WED WL SEE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MV ACRS CWA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DVLPNG DRG THE DIURNAL HTG OF THE DAY. TEMPS IN DOWNEAST WL CLIMB INTO THE M70S THO COOLER ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INTRODUCE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BACK EAST OF THE AREA. 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND MOST RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE AXIS NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE UPPER 90S. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM NEARLY OVERHEAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. DATE AUG 05 FCST RCD/YEAR TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 108 108/2009 FORT THOMAS 106 109/2009 SAFFORD AG STATION 105 108/1995 WITH THE HIGH OF 106 DEGS AT THE TUCSON AIRPORT TODAY. OVERALL ANOTHER DRY AND HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN.
THE AREA IS LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
This should bring highs in line with being at or just slightly warmer than what we saw today. Upper level ridge will be building back over West Central Texas over the next 24 hours, bringing the slim chances of rain a few areas have had to an end. As the ridge builds in even more on Wednesday, temperatures will inch a degree or two higher and be well in excess of 100 in a few local areas. A strong upper level high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern and bring hot and dry conditions.
/ISSUED 710 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/ UPPER RIDGE ALREADY ESSENTIALLY GONE.
952 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1127 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
1003 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
801 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
1035 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
WATCHING A SECOND AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN NV WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IN NORTHERN CA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. EVENING WEATHER BALLOON FROM KBOI SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
714 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
713 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE "COLD" FRONT/PSEUDO-DWPT FRONT/SFC TROF AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY S/WV ROTATING UP THRU THE STATE ALONG WITH SPEED MAX AT H5. WED WL SEE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MV ACRS CWA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DVLPNG DRG THE DIURNAL HTG OF THE DAY. TEMPS IN DOWNEAST WL CLIMB INTO THE M70S THO COOLER ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INTRODUCE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
549 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AT THIS HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHING OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS RELATIVELY WEAK. EXPECT TSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO WARMER AIR ALOFT.
ENOUGH DRYING BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVING INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TO KEEP CONVECTION WEAK AND SHALLOW. EXCEPT ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING TO INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH OF M59 AND MID 50S SOUTH OF M59. AS STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
1051 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
1239 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.