Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong low level moisture convergence coupled with decent upper level divergence will help to keep the rain going over our area thru early afternoon before we see a trend towards decreasing POPs from west to east late this afternoon as the 500 mb trof axis approaches our area. Weak high pressure over the Central Plains settles into IL by midday Sunday and into the ohio river valley by sunset Sunday.
303 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST N OF I 80 WHERE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED AMPLIFY INTO A BROAD ERN CONUS RIDGE MUCH OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING.
416 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
633 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
422 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
428 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IMPACTING THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SETTLES OVER OUR REGION. AND WILL IN FACT TREND WARMER OVER TIME AS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR GETS FED INTO OUR REGION.
Troughing over the western CONUS will lead to persistent southerly flow and warm advection through the center of the country.
Return flow will commence today ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD CREATE LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
RAIN IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS OVERRUNNING INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL RACE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY THANKS TO RAIN AND CLOUDS.
317 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
135 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
306 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
Behind the upper trough, northwesterly winds at the surface will be increasing across the area into the 15-25 mph range by mid/late morning. Tonight, the upper trough continues east with the northern half of it shearing out to the east while the southern half lingers over the southern plains.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front working south thru Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Timing of the cold front, and accompanying dry air advection will compete against stratus/fog development during the morning hours. Convection will end tonight with the loss of daytime heating as well as the arrival of an upper low. The departure of the upper low will push a cold front south overnight.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.
An elongated upper level trough positioned over the Plains early this morning will continue to track east over the next 24 hours.
Upper trough to our west early this morning will shift east and across the area today. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s with the cooler readings in the northwest and warmer southeast.
AMPLE DRYING NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS ALREADY ERODED A LARGE CHUNK OF STRATUS FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FROPA. AMPLE SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY AND NO ADDITIONAL COOL ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO CLIMO AREA WIDE AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS SLOWLY EAST. COOLER MOS TEMPS TONIGHT SEEM THE RIGHT COURSE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N-NW WINDS.
340 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ALOFT - A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CANADAIN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD/ ACROSS THE U. RIDGING REACHED ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES/ FROM CUBA TO JAMES BAY CANADA. SURFACE - BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO MEXICO AND A WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED EASTWARD/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND FL. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DOMINATED MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES AND BRIDGED THE GULF- FL BOUNDARY. THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS UP NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AND PIVOTING. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. WHILE THE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS FL.
The eastward progression of the moisture axis should slow some this mrng and as such I have the highest PoPs from the STL metro area to the S and E. Addtnl precip should continue to dvlp this mrng across cntrl/NE MO and w cntrl IL in advance of the upper lvl trof. The upper level trof should pass in tandem with the SFC cold front from this aftn thru the evng.
MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL INCREASE LATE TNT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY SUN AM.
BILLINGS WRIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
OUT AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. CONTINUING TO EXPAND FOR A TIME INTO MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ACTUAL UPPER TROUGH AND AN ELONGATION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING.
08Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough extending from the northern plains southwest through the southern Rockies and into Mexico. Meanwhile the upper low remains south of the forecast area while the mean westerlies become zonal to the north.
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 30O AM DEPICTS A SHARP AND NARROW FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A STRONG 75 TO 125 KNOT JET ROUNDS THIS SHARP TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO WISCONSIN. BUT CLOSER TO THE KEYS THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL THE AXIS OF A 1023- 1025 MB RIDGE ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK DOWN TO WESTERN VIRGINIA.
337 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.
PERIODIC GUSTS IN THE 35-50KT RANGE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH FOG WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MILDER AIR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER A DEVELOPING ROCKIES RIDGE.
A cold front is currently moving through the northern Permian Basin and will result in high temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 60s across most areas. An upper level trough is over West Texas, but the upper level lift and heavy rainfall associated with this feature is east of the region. Temperatures are expected to warm back up into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area on Sunday as the upper trough moves over east Texas.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE COVERING MID TN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A TROUGH. THEN A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL COME UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP AREA DRY WITH MILD LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL GET SUPPRESSED AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER TEXAS MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A TRAILING WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON MON. BENEATH IT DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUE AND INTO THE NORTH GOMEX WED-THU. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SLOW APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z.
Late in the period, some convection may begin to approach DHN and ECP with gradually lowering ceilings as an upper level trough begins to affect the region. Return flow will commence today ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
425 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY.
305 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING IN SE PARTS OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE WEST EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER TX THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SE PARTS OF THE FA SUNDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM AROUND 25K FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10K FEET LATER IN THE DAY.
418 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WESTERN FA.
1201 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to shift east towards the Ozarks tonight. Diffluent upper level flow in conjunction with strong and deep isentropic upglide in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere will support a shield of rain continuing to spread east into the Ozarks. That upper level trough will then slowly move across the Ozarks Saturday and Saturday evening. However, there will still be the potential for drizzle as a mid level trough attempts to squeeze out low level moisture.
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE MAIN ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE PRECIP SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO KEEP MUCH OF NORTH GA IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
635 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.
THIS IN TURN COULD MAKE IT SO THE LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW. THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
305 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 08Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough extending from the northern plains southwest through the southern Rockies and into Mexico. Meanwhile the upper low remains south of the forecast area while the mean westerlies become zonal to the north.
417 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
314 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BOOT HEEL. AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THUS LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME TEN DEGREES COOLER WITH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
331 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
645 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING IN SE PARTS OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE WEST EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER TX THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SE PARTS OF THE FA SUNDAY.
The upper low will move across the area this afternoon and could see a few spotty light rain showers develop mainly across southern sections. At the surface, a weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with light north to northwest winds developing. Temperatures today will be pleasant, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 70s elsewhere.
SFC ANLYS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER OR MID 40S WITH S OR SE WINDS. INITIALLY A FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN STATES. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW WED NGT.
122 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SWRN US. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SWRN TROUGH. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM FLORIDA NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. EAST OF THIS TROUGH. WHILE WEST OF THE TROUGH. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT. WHICH HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGHS TDY COMPARED TO THE PVS RUNS. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR WARMER TEMPS LIES WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WESTERLY WINDS AND H85 TEMPS WHICH APPROACH 13C IN THE FAR SW AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
536 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 MAINLY CLOUDY BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST N OF I 80 WHERE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED AMPLIFY INTO A BROAD ERN CONUS RIDGE MUCH OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING.
413 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
351 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE NEW WEEK. WEAK TROUGH/FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY AS ITS PARENT LOW WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC.
207 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.
138 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS NORTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS.
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES IN SE OREGON ARE DECREASING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING IN OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 913 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/ A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITIONS OF THE LOW AND OTHER SURFACE FEATURES.
131 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
126 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
and expect afternoon highs to be near or a bit warmer than yesterday.
TOMORROW WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND BECOME A LITTLE BREEZIER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S REST OF THE AREA. IT DOES GET A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DOMINATE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) WILL LARGELY END THIS EVENING.
959 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A ROBUST THERMAL RIDGE ADVANCES EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 15C BY LATE AFTN AND THIS COMBINED WITH A PERIOD OF NEARLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTS USING THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TODAY. WARMER READINGS AROUND 70F COULD DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THESE STRONG WINDS WOULD MIX DOWN BUT IT IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TEMPS ARE 50F OR WARMER AT 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW AN INVERSION FORMING AFTER DARK DECOUPLING THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH PREVENTS THIS HIGH WIND CONDITION. A COOLING TREND TO END THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
Sunrise temperatures should be quite cool, around 40 degrees, with afternoon temperatures considerably warmer in the lower 70s.
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
914 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
Temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to increased cloud cover, but still mild for this time of year. Temperatures will remain above normal with lows in the low to mid 40s tonight and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION.
640 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH RISING REMOVED MENTION OF ANY FREEZING RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT ABOVE FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER NW MN.
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS HOWEVER. SO TRIED TO CONFINE THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO THE LOWS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 50S. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT AROUND MID-DAY.
TOOK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY TRENDING COOLER AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 46 63 46 / 20 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 43 60 45 / 20 20 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 44 60 44 / 20 20 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 40 59 38 / 10 30 0 10.
WEAK SOUTHERLY ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT AND THE INTRUSION OF DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS AGAIN PROVIDED A SET UP FOR DENSE FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A TROUGH IS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
However, temperatures will warm into the low/mid 70s across West Central TX this afternoon. A few of the low-lying, sheltered areas (mainly along the I-10 corridor) may briefly drop into the 30s.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SITES SHORTLY AFTER 09/15Z AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WEAK SOUTHERLY ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT AND THE INTRUSION OF DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS AGAIN PROVIDED A SET UP FOR DENSE FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
High temperatures will be reached before noon before a cold front moves through. With the cold front, winds will be breezy in valleys, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph in many locations, with gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible. In the high terrain, strong winds will gust to 60 mph. This area of mostly rain, with snow levels hovering around 7000-7500 feet, will expand and intensify across the rest of the Northern Rockies thanks to a strong cold front approaching the region. The mix arriving late in the day could produce flash freezing concerns thus difficult driving conditions.
KTW /ISSUED 548 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015/ VFR WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE TAF SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP TO READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. MOISTURE IS LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE PROFILES FAIRLY DRY BELOW 750MB EVEN IN OUR NORTH. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM BUT BREEZY DAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.
THE MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE FOR HIGHS WITH THE MAV AND THE ECMWF NU8MBERS COMING IN WARMER AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT. SINCE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOOK MORE REALISTIC WILL GO CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS AND WILL THROW OUT THE COOLER MET NUMBERS.
There will be several wind shifts at the surface associated with the passing upper troughs, but the atmosphere looks too dry to produce anything out them.
604 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREA-WIDE. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE.
THIS WILL FORCE A LITTLE TROUGH TO DEVELOP THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS THIS EVENING. WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET/TROUGH COMBO OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOST OF THE NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS FLOW IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO GET HIGH WINDS OVER THE RIDGES AND IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITH AN INVERSION AND A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AS THE TROUGH PASSES. BUT WE MAY HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF WINDS NEAR CRITERIA WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WARMER TODAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. EXTENDED PICTURE CONTINUING TO LOOK COOLER WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY BUT STILL AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.