Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPS TONIGHT QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. VFR FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT.
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN AGAIN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS WHILE PULLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CORE OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEVADA ON A NEAR EASTERLY TRACK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NOSE IN THIS EVENING THEN PASS ACROSS NAMELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW. BUT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL LIKELY YIELD PRIMARILY AN OROGRAPHIC EVENT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST BENCHES ADJACENT. BUT THE BULK OF TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOK TO FOCUS ON THE HIGHEST PASSES/CANYONS WHERE STORM TOTAL FORECAST OF 3 TO 6 INCHES REMAIN IN PLACE. RAPID DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO RAPIDLY TAPER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STILL SEEING SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA WHERE TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER. AT THIS POINT WPC/FGF AND OTHER OFFICES ARE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PUT THE MOST SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
654 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 WEAK WARM FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT.
THE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH IS CARVED UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY START INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AS A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
545 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016 A pleasant day is underway across the region this afternoon, with southwest winds and sunny skies helping to boost temperatures into the low to mid 50s in many spots. Tonight will feature seasonably mild temperatures, with most places not falling below freezing. Some model guidance is suggesting this, though the current suspicion is that guidance is under-representing the amount of dry air in place in the low levels of the atmosphere. A quick moving upper level wave and associated surface cold front will start to move into the area Thursday night, with scattered rain showers developing along and just behind the front.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE DIVIDE A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATION WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DROP SOUTHWARD.
This will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 40s in the mid-Illinois River valley, with 45 to 50 elsewhere.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE PUT A LID ON OUR TEMPERATURE CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THIS REGION. THIS REGION HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME CRUSTING OF THE SNOW. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN CHEYENNE TOMORROW MORNING.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG /MAINLY OVER OREGON TO THE LONG VALLEY.
Wednesday afternoon has found the entire region under sunny skies in the wake of the dry passage of a short wave trough this morning. The flow pattern aloft was from the west northwest while flow in the lower levels was generally from the west to southwest. Overnight lows should be in the 27 to 33range, with warmer temperatures on windier hilltops. There is a good chance for much of the area to sneak into the middle to upper 50s given continued warm advection and southwest flow, although a cold front will make its way into north central KS around noon and across the entire area by late evening. Moisture in the mid levels is severely lacking on soundings with brief saturation in the low layers to develop light flurries during this time.
NO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. AS NOTED BY THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING AND THE DECK OF THIN CIRRUS OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE LOWER 20S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT RESULTING IN A BIT OF A BREEZY DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE JUST THE TAIL-END OF A FRONT THAT IS NOW BRINGING PRECIP TO PARTS OF NORTHERN NV/UT. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE CLOUDS WILL BE TO KEEP LOW TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. MAINLY IN THE MID-30 TO LOW-40 RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
602 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 WEAK WARM FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT.
ANTICIPATING THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING AND BELOW ZERO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A NEW SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
702 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 AVIATION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 630 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
703 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 WEAK WARM FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT.
901 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 UPDATE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
850 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 QUIET WX PATTERN OVERNIGHT AS AN H100-H70 HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GOMEX REGION MOVES ACRS THE FL PENINSULA/CAROLINA COAST. DENSE CI DECK WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHEAR AND MOISTURE APPROACHING WESTERN CENTRAL FL LATE THU NIGHT AND CROSSING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY FRI.
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CONDITIONS WERE DRY AND WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE PART OF THE MORNING AND BEHIND IT COLDER AIR SHOULD TURN ANY ONGOING RAIN-SNOW MIXES INTO SNOW SHOWERS. SHOULD MENTION THAT VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE NORTH FROM BAKER TO MILES CITY LATE TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
329 PM MST WED JAN 13 2016 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A NEW SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
/ISSUED 258 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE REACHING MORE THAN THE LOWER 60S.
637 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016 STILL QUIET ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY THANKS TO THE PASSING COLD FRONT YESTERDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST. THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL AID IN SUPPORTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARM UP TEMPS A BIT TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK.
WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS DAKOTAS. CURRENT WRN CONUS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AT ONSET WITH ASSOCIATED MATURING SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT FROM SD INTO SRN MN.
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS FM 06-12Z TNGT. IT WILL BE BREEZY COOLER THU WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE STRONGLY SOUTHERLY AND BRING INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY AND WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE MS/AL/GA I-20 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE OVER THE SE STATES WAS OTHERWISE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON TODAY'S SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW.
A VERY DIFFUSE FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL PART OF ALABAMA BUT IS EXPECTED FIZZLE OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM TO LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. NO NOTICEABLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THURSDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 441 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY AS THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
AROUND A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS NEAR TN RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE DIVIDE A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATION WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DROP SOUTHWARD.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AREA OF SNOW ASSOC WITH WAVE OVER N WISC. THEN DIMINISH/END OR BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS REMOVED WITH SYSTEM. BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL WISC MEANS FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE.
HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
AT THE SAME TIME THE L/W TROUGH WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BROADEN OUT SOME AND WORK EAST AND IN RESPONSE S/W RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOCATION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE COASTAL MS WHERE THE RIDGING WILL HAVE THE LEAST IMPACT. S/W RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SLOWLY. BY SUN THE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. EASTERLIES BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF.
1157 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. ONE TROUGH WAS PROGRESS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. TODAYS DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST TO PROGRESS EAST TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY AND EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODELS HOLD ONTO GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA. LESS INSTABILITY FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SO ONLY ISOLATED TSTORMS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOME.
454 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 THE PATTERN CONTINUES IN A STATUS QUO WITH AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ALABAMA ON THE ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF FOR FRIDAY AND POPS SHOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY BASED AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
CL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKEN AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.
107 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
419 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/ WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. HAVE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.
646 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.
445 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A REVIEW OF UPPER-AIR DATA ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT THE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE WHICH HAS BEEN GOVERNING THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE SERVICE AREA HAS WEAKENED FURTHER AND SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A RATHER LARGE.
ALOFT: 00Z ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWED A TROF OVER THE WRN USA. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE E THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST W OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE MN/WI BORDER. WENT WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 800MB WHICH WOULD AGAIN YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING REAL SPIFFY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
An upper level trough is over the western conus with the CWA under west to southwest flow aloft.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE RELEASED BY THE FRONTO BAND AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS RUNNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH SUNRISE. THURSDAY THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING JET SUPPORT OVER A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF I-70.
427 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT AND RISE WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SNYDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND.
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
136 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REASSERTS ITSELF BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THOUGH.
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
241 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.
652 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
631 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
AND A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
326 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FAR INLAND. RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FAR WEST WITH INCREASING CHANCES LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA.
500 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LATE MAY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AND LIKELY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY PROBABLY WITH MORE CLOUDS.
SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS. IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU UTAH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WAS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING AND ITS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM TUCSON WEST.