Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Polar high pressure to continue across WI this afternoon. Sely winds and low to mid level warm advection will then develop tnt as the polar high shifts ewd and low pressure moves from the central high plains to ern NE. Although sfc temps will be rising above freezing during this time, the road temps will likely linger 2-3 hours making for the possibility of light freezing pcpn. There are chances for the very light pcpn to continue into Thu nt as a slow moving cold front passes through.
Then the weak cold front and a possible lobe of frontogensis may couple with passing clipper/synoptic ascent to support another period of transient banding late this evening through Thursday morning. Potential is still there for some wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range through this evening, especially as the cold front moves through later tonight.
429 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2020 20z surface analysis had warm front from southwest SK to the Black Hills and then into eastern CO. Weak lows were located over southwest SK and over northeast WY, both in response to upper trough rolling across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Another upper trough pushing into the northwest CONUS. Tonight, upper trough shifts eastward as warm front weakens and cold front develops over eastern MT into central WY.
245 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2020 Upper level trough continues to track east across the Great Basin this afternoon. This trough will bring snow to the mountains tonight, best lift occurs this evening and this is when the heaviest snow is expected. Airmass stabilizes after 06Z, this along with subsidence behind the exiting trough may produce a mountain wave. It will be cooler Thursday with highs in the lower 40s along the Front Range and eastern plains. Snow showers will increase late in the day as a weak trough in flow aloft nears Colorado.
Current satellite reveals a longwave trough translating eastward through the Four Corners. At the surface, troughing in the lee of the Rockies has developed, with gusty southwesterly winds across the Panhandles ongoing. Expect the longwave trough to lift northeastward while continuing to weaken. Given the intermittent cirrus and the downslope winds continuing into the overnight hours, have gone with the warmer side of major consensus blends for lows tonight. As the next upper trough quickly dives southeastward from the Pacific NW toward AZ, expect rounds of cirrus to continue tomorrow.
626 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 High pressure over the region will shift eastward and begin to direct an onshore flow into the forecast area Thursday.
Am a bit concerned with low temperatures in the northeast as the current forecast is a couple degrees warmer than 21Z observations. Patchy freezing drizzle or flurries could be possible tonight, mainly of the I29 corridor. HRRR buffer soundings indicates good low level moisture up to 1 KM, which is not the best for freezing drizzle. With low forecaster confidence, will not mention freezing drizzle or flurries tonight. Warmer temps are possible of the limited snow cover area in the southwest CWA. An Arctic high pressure northwest of the region will filter cold air into at least the eastern half of the CWA.
Overview: Warmer than normal temperatures through Thursday with a little light rain or drizzle for parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, then some light snow - trace to 2 inches (mix far southeast Neb.
A surface weather analysis this afternoon depicts a warm front draped across eastern Montana, slowly moving eastward towards western North Dakota.
Dry conditions and above normal daytime temperatures of the past several way will give way to cooler temperatures Wednesday into the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 344 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020 A broad region of high clouds continue to filter across the central/northern Plains ahead of the trough axis centered over the western US. Southeasterly flow at the surface will turn northwesterly late tonight as cold front pushes eastward across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with many areas pushing into the 40s, especially SW Nebraska.
542 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020 High pressure will shift east overnight and surface southeast flow will turn a bit more southerly and weaken. Along and east of Interstate 29 will see the better chance for rising temperatures while the James Valley and points west will see the better chances for a somewhat normal diurnal fall as the weak trough axis moves in. Strong warm air advection aloft will shift north through the area but not anticipating any precipitation as the low and mid levels are too dry.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 540 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020 A broad region of high clouds continue to filter across the central/northern Plains ahead of the trough axis centered over the western US. Southeasterly flow at the surface will turn northwesterly late tonight as cold front pushes eastward across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with many areas pushing into the 40s, especially SW Nebraska.
605 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 After a few evening snow showers, dry weather is expected through Thursday under building high pressure. Wet and unseasonably warm conditions are expected through the weekend with crossing low pressure. An upper low will deepen over the Four Corners region and amplify ridging/SW flow across the eastern U.
408 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 The latest surface map features high pressure sprawled from the Great Lakes down to the Deep South. Aloft, troughing is taking shape across the West, with ridging working east of the Plains. Clear skies reign across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures currently ranging from the lower 40s north of I-64, to the upper 40s and lower 50s for most locations south of the Mountain Parkway.
While there may be some break up of the clouds this afternoon, their demise may not fully occur until this evening when cooling aloft and eventual switch to northwesterly flow aloft associated with the approach and passage of the upper level trough currently over central UT. Moisture seen in water vapor imagery along and just ahead of this trough will move over the region this evening, with maximum lift occurring over eastern UT through about 7 pm, and western CO 5p- 11pm. Colder than normal temperatures will continue with synoptic scale upper level trough over the region.
Other than some tweaks to hourly temperatures, everything is on track for another cool night -- mid 30s west, around freezing on the Plateau.
Initially, light to occasionally moderate snow should be ongoing over primarily Continental Divide locations Thursday night as upper trough moves into western Colorado.
649 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 High pressure moving over the area will stop the snow showers this evening and bring dry and tranquil conditions for Thursday.
414 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 High pressure moving over the area will stop the snow showers this evening and bring dry and tranquil conditions for Thursday.
637 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic region tonight and Thursday resulting in fair dry weather.
426 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2020 A southwest flow aloft between a Intermountain West upper trough and Eastern Great Plains upper ridge was transporting mid/upper level moisture across the CWA. Regional surface analysis placed a Pacific cold front from southern MT through central UT and far western AZ. Gusty winds will spread out onto the high plains this evening. Moistening upslope flow through Thursday evening will promote orographic snow shower development over the higher terrain of southern WY, where 4 to 8 inches may accumulate. The cold front to the west will through the CWA Thursday morning, which will usher in cooler temperatures and gradually diminishing winds through the remainder of the day.
240 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2020 A southwest flow aloft between a Intermountain West upper trough and Eastern Great Plains upper ridge was transporting mid/upper level moisture across the CWA. Regional surface analysis placed a Pacific cold front from southern MT through central UT and far western AZ. Gusty winds will spread out onto the high plains this evening. Moistening upslope flow through Thursday evening will promote orographic snow shower development over the higher terrain of southern WY, where 4 to 8 inches may accumulate. The cold front to the west will through the CWA Thursday morning, which will usher in cooler temperatures and gradually diminishing winds through the remainder of the day.
The first of which will bring breezy, cloudier and cooler conditions Thursday afternoon area-wide with brief, light snow showers possible down to 4000 ft. This will be the last day of temperatures in the low-60s in the Las Vegas Valley for a while as a series of weather disturbances work to continuously bring cold air down into our region. Thursday, the first of many troughs will dip down and bring with it low elevation snow flurries and breezy northerly winds along with the cold air. The current forecast has the highest amounts along portions of the Eastern Sierra Slopes with 1-2 inches of new snow.
1108 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020 High pressure will shift east overnight and surface southeast flow will turn a bit more southerly and weaken. Along and east of Interstate 29 will see the better chance for rising temperatures while the James Valley and points west will see the better chances for a somewhat normal diurnal fall as the weak trough axis moves in. Strong warm air advection aloft will shift north through the area but not anticipating any precipitation as the low and mid levels are too dry.
Fri morning, deepening upper trough over the western US kicks out and sets up over the nations mid-section early Sat, and closes off for a short period. By midday however, trough axis goes slightly negative and surges eastward, moving east of the mid- state late Sat night. Models still in pretty good agreement on mid-week system as a warm front sets up over the region.
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020 Slow moving 500 mb short wave trough moving northeast from eastern Saskatchewan into western ND. Then the weak cold front and a possible lobe of frontogensis may couple with passing clipper/synoptic ascent to support another period of transient banding late this evening through Thursday morning. Potential is still there for some wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range through this evening, especially as the cold front moves through later tonight.
141 AM MST Thu Jan 9 2020 Pattern change ongoing as much colder air will begin to shift into the region the next several days per retrogression of the western NOAM long wave ridge.
In addition the cyclone over the area appears to be dragging in low clouds and windy conditions in behind it and a warm sector to the south which is generating the lift for the precip mentioned in the PoP upgrades above.
Low level jet has cranked up tonight, with the lowest gate of the VWP at 50 knots on KSJT. Have included a LLWS at all sites for tonight and added a little gustier winds in the morning as some of the low level jet mixes down.
The upper trough that brought snow to northern Utah earlier today has shifted east into Colorado. The next upstream trough is currently off the PacNW coast and is expected to dive south and split around Utah tomorrow. A subtle vort max moving east ahead of it may spark some precipitation across northern Utah late tonight, otherwise expect some generally weak showers tomorrow afternoon/evening as the trough axis crosses the area.
but would still expect some periodic 2-5nm vsbys with a much warmer airmass moving over the cooler shelf waters.
116 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 High pressure over the region will shift eastward and begin to direct an onshore flow into the forecast area Thursday.
947 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020 A fast moving low pressure system from the northwest will move across California on Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020 A broad region of high clouds continue to filter across the central/northern Plains ahead of the trough axis centered over the western US. Southeasterly flow at the surface will turn northwesterly late tonight as cold front pushes eastward across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with many areas pushing into the 40s, especially SW Nebraska.
Have decided to just the High Wind Warnings run to the 5 AM expiration time as we are so close at Arlington.
1039 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2020 20z surface analysis had warm front from southwest SK to the Black Hills and then into eastern CO. Weak lows were located over southwest SK and over northeast WY, both in response to upper trough rolling across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Another upper trough pushing into the northwest CONUS. Tonight, upper trough shifts eastward as warm front weakens and cold front develops over eastern MT into central WY.
1041 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 A 1035 mb high pressure system centered over the central Appalachians supports freshening northeast to east breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
High pressure centered north of the region will shift northeast with a tightening pressure gradient overnight leading to an increasing surge in low level easterly winds past midnight. Over the interior lows still expected to range from the mid 40s across inland Volusia and northeast Lake County to the low 50s farther south.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Upper level flow will transition to the southwest overnight as upper level ridging moves well east of the region. Meanwhile, a broad trough will begin to develop just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest overnight.
Showers associated with an upper trough will continue through Thursday.
A strong low-level jet has developed across the region and is affecting all terminals with ~45-50 knots of wind shear within the lowest 1 kft.
217 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 High pressure moving over the area will bring dry and tranquil conditions for Thursday.
1022 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2020 A southwest flow aloft between a Intermountain West upper trough and Eastern Great Plains upper ridge was transporting mid/upper level moisture across the CWA. Regional surface analysis placed a Pacific cold front from southern MT through central UT and far western AZ. Gusty winds will spread out onto the high plains this evening. Moistening upslope flow through Thursday evening will promote orographic snow shower development over the higher terrain of southern WY, where 4 to 8 inches may accumulate. The cold front to the west will through the CWA Thursday morning, which will usher in cooler temperatures and gradually diminishing winds through the remainder of the day.
1048 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 High pressure moving over the area will stop the snow showers this evening and bring dry and tranquil conditions for Thursday.
127 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 High pressure moving over the area will stop the snow showers this evening and bring dry and tranquil conditions for Thursday.
Large scale pattern has been rather progressive since yesterday a broad upper trough now encompasses the western half of the CONUS. Downstream a ridge prevailed over the eastern half of the CONUS. This will lead to a relatively large spread in highs ranging from the low 40s to the north with mid 50s to the south.
A Pacific storm and associated cold front will approach from the east today and move over the state tonight through Friday, bringing windy and much colder conditions.
440 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 High pressure will bring dry and tranquil conditions through tonight. A warm up starts on Friday, followed by several bouts of rain for the weekend as waves of low pressure ride northeast along a nearly stationary frontal boundary just to our west. Moisture gradually increases too with anomalous PW surging into the Ohio Valley late tonight and Friday as low pressure approaches from the Plains. A few pockets in the northern valleys may be cold enough Friday morning when the rain begins for a brief period of wintry mix, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing. Highs Friday will range from the lower 40s north to around 50 south.
405 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 Upper-level flow transitions to southwesterly by this afternoon as upper ridge axis pushes east of the region.
went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warnings early. Have decided to just allow the High Wind Warnings run to the 5 AM expiration time as we are so close at Arlington.
A cold front continues to make its way across the state this morning. Cold air will continue to filter in overnight as arctic high pressure begins to slide into the region. Friday afternoon highs will struggle to reach zero across the north and east, only reaching into the single digits and maybe the lower teens above zero elsewhere.
Arctic high pressure will settle over the northern Plains on Friday bringing a significantly colder airmass with it.
956 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 High pressure will bring dry and tranquil conditions today. A warm up starts on Friday, with several bouts of rain for the weekend as waves of low pressure ride northeast along a nearly stationary frontal boundary just to our west. High clouds spill over the ridge , but they could decrease this afternoon as the whole pattern shifts eastward. Moisture gradually increases too with anomalous PW surging into the Ohio Valley late tonight and Friday as low pressure approaches from the Plains. A few pockets in the northern valleys may be cold enough Friday morning when the rain begins for a brief period of wintry mix, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing. Highs Friday will range from the lower 40s north to around 50 south.
349 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2020 A low pressure system from the northwest will move across Southern California today. Friday will bring dry and warmer weather.
618 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 High pressure will bring dry and tranquil conditions through tonight. A warm up starts on Friday, followed by several bouts of rain for the weekend as waves of low pressure ride northeast along a nearly stationary frontal boundary just to our west. Moisture gradually increases too with anomalous PW surging into the Ohio Valley late tonight and Friday as low pressure approaches from the Plains. A few pockets in the northern valleys may be cold enough Friday morning when the rain begins for a brief period of wintry mix, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing. Highs Friday will range from the lower 40s north to around 50 south.
The next weather system will arrive in the form of snow across the Pine Ridge region Thursday night. In addition to snow, a strong upper level trough will bring in a much colder airmass to the region for Friday night.
Upper-level flow transitions to southwesterly by this afternoon as upper ridge axis pushes east of the region.
The region remains under southwest flow aloft with a ridge to the east and an upper level trough expected to cross the Four Corners region by this evening. A lee cyclone is expected to move from Eastern Colorado, across Northwest Kansas tonight along with a cold front. High temperatures will be a little cooler with highs ranging from the mid-40s to low 50s. A dry, cooler weather pattern is forecast for this period. Behind the short wave ridge that moves through this weekend, the 500mb flow will resemble a long wave trough over the Plains, with several short wave troughs moving through the main flow. This will keep the flow south of the forecast area, and allow cooler temperatures in.
Will begin seeing the first influences of the approaching deep layer trough over the Western U.
Slow moving upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery entering central North Dakota. Additional light snow is possible near the International border as the upper low propagates through the region. Weak cold front will move through the region today, but cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling, plus cold air advection is weak. Surface ridging builds into the region tonight and Friday.
The GFS/NAM produce a little bit of QPF in our far east during the morning hours, though any legitimate precipitation would be hard to come by with moisture confined to the lower levels.
Have highs today slightly warmer than yesterday with weak downslope and less wind. The closed low will be over Texas, but the PV shows a strong anomaly moving across the whole country. The models do show fairly good consensus that snow will develop over the High Plains early Friday, before moving southeast across the area during the afternoon and ending in the evening to the southeast. Overall around an inch of snow is possible, but the higher resolution models continue to show that there will likely be a band of higher totals somewhere.
A fast-moving low pressure system will bring rain and snow showers to northern Arizona from this afternoon into Friday. Satellite imagery and model data show a broad trough of low pressure stretching across the western half of the country. Snow levels to drop to 3500-4500 feet early Friday morning, and accumulations to range from a trace to up to an inch at these elevations, with the inch amounts across the higher elevations of the Navajo nation.
449 AM MST Thu Jan 9 2020 Pattern change ongoing as much colder air will begin to shift into the region the next several days per retrogression of the western NOAM long wave ridge.
403 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020 A cold front continues to make its way across the state this morning. Cold air will continue to filter in overnight as arctic high pressure begins to slide into the region. Friday afternoon highs will struggle to reach zero across the north and east, only reaching into the single digits and maybe the lower teens above zero elsewhere.
Otherwise, the moisture will retreat westward tonight and could increase the risk of sub-VFR conditions at KCDS toward 12Z Friday, but at this point guidance keeps the low stratus just east of the terminal. /issued 304 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020/ A vortmax, out ahead of a developing trough over California, can be seen passing across the Four Corners region on WV imagery as of 8Z.
went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warnings early. Have decided to just the High Wind Warnings run to the 5 AM expiration time as we are so close at Arlington.
353 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020 Large scale pattern has been rather progressive since yesterday a broad upper trough now encompasses the western half of the CONUS. Downstream a ridge prevailed over the eastern half of the CONUS. This will lead to a relatively large spread in highs ranging from the low 40s to the north with mid 50s to the south.
The first of which will bring breezy, cloudier and cooler conditions this afternoon area-wide with a few light mountain snow showers. Late afternoon is when the strongest upper support is expected to move overhead and it's possible that a few light showers will occur, but these are expected to remain over the higher terrain and any amounts will remain light. Winds are expected to remain generally light through much of the day, but north winds are expected to increase especially across Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye Counties behind a cold front that will move through during the afternoon.
A cold front will bring more snow to northern and parts of central Nevada today.
High pressure over southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes is resulting in southeasterly recycled flow keeping temperatures over the area in the upper 20s for now. First low pressure of our weekend series was over south central NE which is send strong southerly flow into MI/IA and western IL, which will be moving into our area by tonight.
/issued 345 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020/ An upper trough is over the western conus and Central Plains. The upper trough will strengthen and move over the region on Friday. High winds will be possible across the Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains so the High Wind Watch remains in effect. Winds will become northerly Friday night with a cold front moving into the area.