Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH/SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT WITH COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WHERE BACKED SURFACE FLOW AND INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER TO HAVE MOST LONGEVITY. AS GENUFLECTED/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RAMP/DEEPEN AS PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST TROF SWEEPS EWD INTO STRONG CUTOFF THROUGH AZ/NM ON SAT ALONG WITH NOTABLE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN GOMEX TO SWRN GA. TEMPS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10F HIR THAN TODAY. SHALLOW/POOLED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
/ISSUED 349 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST A FIELD OF CHAFF DRIFTING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD. AND IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS.
903 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
638 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 AN STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO QUEBEC TO OUR NORTH IS DRAWING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WARMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OF OREGON.
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UP AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS. AREAS ALONG I-29 INCLUDING WATERTOWN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARMER AIR LONGER AND MAY NOT SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW UNTIL LATE SAT EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE EVENT IS WINDING DOWN FROM THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR SOUTH.
HRRR model has been handling this quicker timing of arrival of IFR clouds well and even have a few sites with vsbys below 1 mile with Paris the lowest at 1/2 mile in fog. One warm front near I-74 to lift into northern IL tonight while another warm front near I-70 will slowly lift northward across central IL tonight. This will include cloudy skies and much warmer temps.
WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 74 55 71 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 73 51 71 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 72 51 71 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 70 46 71 / 10 10 10 10.
LEAVING A WEAKNESS OR TROUGH AXIS FROM NEW YORK TO TENNESSEE TO NORTHWEST GULF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH TO PUSH WEST AND BRING DEEP MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
533 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PEAK SHORTLY BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS OFF. TEMPS INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SE WILL FALL BACK TO GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT HAD MOVED SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAY BE A FACTOR FOR STORM FOCUS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE TODAY WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND THE LATEST NCEP/WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS OF 85F TO 89F. HOT AND MUGGY SUNDAY /MAX HI MID 90S/ AMID STOIC CAP WITH 7-5H LR NR 4C/KM AS EXTRUSION OF DESERT SW TO NRN PLAINS RIDGE SETTLES ACRS SOUTHERN GRTLKS.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAKDOWN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE SIMILAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK MID AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS N AND W OF PIT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR SOUTHEST RIDGES OF WV/MD WHERE CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS MAY BRIEFLY BE REACHED.
THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAP WILL BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE SCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE PAC NW HAS MOVED INTO CANADA.
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
434 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
An upper level shear axis/inverted trough may allow some pulse convection develop over the eastern cwfa and points south-east Sunday afternoon. By late in the extended Fri/Sat, there is basic agreement in keeping subtropical upper level ridging suppressed to the south with a fairly active progressive pattern.
FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETUP COLLAPSING TO OUR WEST.
1109 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS STRONG RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WEAK ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES CANADA. SECONDARY UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA LATE. WEAK UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
WITH THE REGION STUCK BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST SPOTS.
234 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXITING EAST ACROSS WASHINGTON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN BACK TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE LINGERED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST IN MANY SPOTS OWING TO THE CLOUDINESS. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ON SCHEDULE AND THE AXIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OVERALL, WITH SOME PARCELS HEATING ENOUGH TO DRIVE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN IL AND ONE STORM POPPING UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70. TONIGHTS FORECAST IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISS VALLEY REGION AND THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY.
645 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WITH RIDGE AXIS POINTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEB/MN AND INTO WESTERN ONT. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS NOTED IN BC/AB. WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE 90M AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN MT. STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL JET WINDS WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT DRAWING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD BEFORE FADING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS FREEZING LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH.
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR NORTH GA CLOSER TO AN UPPER TROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO WORK THROUGH CORSON COUNTY /WITH BASICALLY STATIONARY PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROF STIL HANGING TOUGH FURTHER EAST FROM APPX KMBG TO KPIR/ CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE JUST A TEENY-TINY BIT COOLER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ALONG COLD FRONT WITH CAP WEAKENING OVER TIME.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. CUTS OFF AND MOVES SOUTHWEST AND WEST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
WILL BE STARTING THE DAY TODAY ABOUT 5 TO 1O DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL FALL TEMPS WILL START THE DAY ABOUT THAT MUCH WARMER. STARTING WARMER BUT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY. COLD FRONTAL TIMING STILL DIFFERS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLOWEST AND GFS FASTEST. MARKEDLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
223 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
336 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY IS PROMOTING DRY WX.
High pressure over the four corners will build westward over the next couple of days with daytime highs warming up to 100 degrees or better in the central valley.
IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO PROGRESS DIRECTLY INTO THE TEETH OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HAZE AND HIGH CLOUDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE IS MAKING THINGS FEEL UNCOMFORTABLY WARM FOR BAY AREA NATIVES.
341 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE A WEAK INLAND SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DURING THIS TIME THE LONG-STANDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DISPLACED OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY THE WESTERLIES AND SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS.
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
1249 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY WITH REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER AS UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS JET STREAM AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TODAY WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS TROF PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT WEST-EAST ALIGNED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. COLUMN WILL UNDERGO MINOR WARMING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE RESIDENT RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA.
142 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
Temperatures/dewpoints were fairly seasonal in the lower 90s/high 50s to mid 60s respectively. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal through Sunday, with lows in the 60s and highs in the lower 90s.
/ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/ THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY.
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT OF THE DAY HAS REALLY SHALLOWED OUT THE COOLER AIR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S STILL FROM SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY AND POINTS EAST. ONCE WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING COOLER AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN AS TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTAN WORK SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED INTRUSION OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW 80 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH MUCH WEAKER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
651 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCES A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL US.
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLD POOL WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS. SLUGGISH PATTERN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SAY THE LEAST WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. AND RIDGE WAY OUT WEST.
SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL CAPPING LIMITING ANY ATTEMPTED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY THAN TODAY AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE PLAINS RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND WITH IT, MUCH WARMER BL AIR WILL BUILD INTO NY AND PA.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESURE TROF IS OVER THE WESTERN US AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEST MONATNA.
/ISSUED 839 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/ UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER TEMPS AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP IN THERMAL PATTERN QUITE WELL DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS SET OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
251 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. OTRWS MID LVL RIDGE BLDS THROUGH THE PD. ENCROACHING MID LVL RIDGE AND LACK OF GUIDANCE SIGNAL WILL DEFER AN INSERTION AT THIS POINT.
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
233 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH FROM NRN FL TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BUBBLE OF WARM AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE 15.
Areas with smoke have experienced less mixing this afternoon, resulting in cooler temperatures and less wind than originally forecast. A weak trough currently over the Pacific NW is on track to slide through the area tonight. Parts of Idaho County and western Montana could see an isolated shower, while some higher ridges could see breezy winds at times. Northwest flow aloft will set up Sunday behind the trough, with a continued cool airmass over our area.
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD.
/ISSUED 1026 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/ THE BROAD ZONE OF LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THAT IS BREAKING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STAY EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT UPPER TROUGH COULD BE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
341 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A WEAK TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THAT AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE AREA SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA.
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALL INDICATED THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AGAIN TODAY IN LIFTING THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U. RESULTING IN A TROUGH BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
307 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ALONG COLD FRONT WITH CAP WEAKENING OVER TIME.
511 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PEAK SHORTLY BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS OFF. TEMPS INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SE WILL FALL BACK TO GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
158 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 90S. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME TRAPPED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER AROUND 70 DEGREES.
1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/ THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE DUE TO IN PART BY THE DISTURBANCES THAT STREAMED IN AROUND THE HIGH AND HEADED TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
THINKING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING AS SEEN THE LAST TWO DAYS GIVEN 0. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge straddling AZ/NM, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NE flow aloft.
IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO PROGRESS DIRECTLY INTO THE TEETH OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT PUTTING A LID ON ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH UPPER 80S WIDESPREAD.
252 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCES A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL US.
326 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE SW TODAY AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE NEARER TO THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE PRECEDENCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
453 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TROUGH AROUND 600-630PM MDT. WITH SOME STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS. AGAIN STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. THE RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES PASS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WAVE WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUE INTO WED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE ARIONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE FA ON SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF HOWEVER WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 70S.
342 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
445 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
POOL OF RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BKN-OVC MID DECK WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
SECONDARY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES TO LEE OF PLAINS UPPER RIDGE MAY KICK OFF MORE SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT MAIN CHC OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE-RIDING VORT IS PROGGED TO COME ACRS THE REGION AT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTION. LONGER RANGE PROGS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE MIGRATION ACRS THE LOWER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY MAY SHUNT THE MAIN STORMS TRACK JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA LIKE A MORE NORMAL DEEP SUMMER PATTERN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND FAIR SKIES.