Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
344 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Low clouds stubbornly persisted over the Midsouth today, along the back edge of an upper low over the Carolinas. The long advertised midweek warm up will arrive courtesy of a deamplifying ridge arriving from the plains. The warmer temps will be short-lived.
Slow moving upper low pivoting over the northern Mid Atlantic states toward New England will keep light snow going over most of CPA for Groundhog Day.
Excellent radiational cooling is forecast tonight, with temperatures generally falling into the lower/mid 40s by Tuesday morning, though a few upper 30s are likely across the inland prairies between 281 and 77.
A moderate AR is impacting the NorCal coast but most of this moisture is ridging over the ridge into the Northern Rockies. A better tap is to the South and has SubTrop or even a Tropical tap that is dirtying up this ridge with a lot of high and mid level cloud cover. Many models are still trying to squeeze out some light precipitation the next 24 hours as the ridge is broken down and temperatures cool slightly aloft. I suppose the high peaks could eventually squeeze out some snow showers due to orographics and possible some gravity or ducted wave action aloft.
906 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Low pressure off of the southern New Jersey coast will slowly lift out to the northeast Tuesday.
151 PM PST Mon Feb 1 2021 A low pressure system off the West Coast will continue to draw mid and high level subtropical moisture northward across the area through tonight before clearing.
422 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 High pressure will result in dry weather and seasonable temperatures the next few days.
720 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Surface analysis this afternoon shows north-south oriented high pressure sitting over the central CONUS while a powerful storm system rides up the northeastern coast. High pressure expands west to the Rockies with a developing storm system just off the west coast. Aloft, a highly-amplified pattern of a trough over the eastern CONUS with a ridge over the western 2/3 is holding fort. While the center of the high pressure area will shift off to the east during the day tomorrow, aiding in a shift in wind direction from NW thru this evening to SE during the day tomorrow, the prolific low clouds will hinder any appreciable warm air advection.
314 PM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 High amplitude flow exists across the CONUS, with deep troffing (and a major snowstorm) in the east, and a strong ridge in the west, with next upstream trof evolving over the eastern Pacific. Ridge in our region will drift slowly east and dominate our weather thru tomorrow. Gusts today have been somewhat limited by fairly weak mid level winds, but flow aloft will increase tomorrow as Pacific trof begins to move inland. Gusty winds should continue until a cold front arrives from the west late Tuesday night. Increasing synoptic scale ascent will lead to a chance of snow behind the Pacific cold front in our west late Tuesday night.
Expect the low level CAA to diminish and the boundary layer to dry out some with VFR conditions prevailing for most of the area by Tuesday afternoon. Having said that, there doesn't appear to be any strong mechanism for changing the pattern as the upper trough and northerly flow aloft over the area will be slow to push east, so don't be surprised if the stratus lingers into the aftn for locations along/e of the I-55 corridor in particular.
/issued 344 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021/ Low clouds stubbornly persisted over the Midsouth today, along the back edge of an upper low over the Carolinas. The long advertised midweek warm up will arrive courtesy of a deamplifying ridge arriving from the plains. The warmer temps will be short-lived.
215 PM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 A strong upper level ridge is expected to continue moving across the High Plains today and tomorrow bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures for the period. The trough is expected to deepen throughout the period, extending from Montana to the Texas Panhandle. Forecasted highs are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, with cooler temperatures expected in the northeast corner of the CWA. Patchy fog could progress as far west as a line from Haigler to Brewster to Gove; however, my confidence is not as high due to the lower amounts of snow cover. Highs on Tuesday are forecasted to range from the 40s east of Hwy-83 to the lower 60s in portions of east-central Colorado.
/issued 530 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021/ Low clouds stubbornly persisted over the Midsouth today, along the back edge of an upper low over the Carolinas. The long advertised midweek warm up will arrive courtesy of a deamplifying ridge arriving from the plains. The warmer temps will be short-lived.
A much warmer day is in-store with highs in the 40s and low 50s.
This is along one more upper impulse of the large upper low centered over the Mid Atlantic. The snow could clip the eastern counties of the CWA providing a dusting to some, and it is feasible that the highest elevations pick up an inch, so I kept the advisory going for the eastern counties.
853 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Slow-moving low pressure will continue to generate snow into Tuesday morning.
Upper level ridging will maintain quiet weather through the short term. With the return of onshore flow, we will be a bit warmer tomorrow night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
A NW flow rounding the big cyclone off of the Jersey Shore, along with a surge of colder air from a Canadian high building to the south, will keep at times brisk NW winds going through the evening.
643 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Cool, high pressure will advect into the region tonight and Tuesday, brining dry weather to the forecast for mid-week.
315 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 (Issued 315 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will continue to slowly approach the area through tomorrow, moving overhead Tuesday night.
Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure slowly sinks southeastward into eastern Dakota and western Minnesota. There is a little change in the weather for Tuesday with high pressure dropping into central Iowa. Do not expect the clouds to clear out with the inversion and subsidence and high pressure across the region.
516 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Persistent cloud cover and CAA along northwest flow has kept temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the region.
525 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 High pressure will result in dry weather and seasonable temperatures the next few days.
Snow has decreased in coverage this afternoon, but another lobe of the upper trough looks to dive southward later this afternoon and evening, giving the Plateau a shot at additional snow accumulation. Consensus shows the highest elevations between 1 to 2 inches, and around a half inch to an inch elsewhere in the winter weather advisory area.
The sun returns in all its glory today and Wednesday as high pressure begins to build into the region. Look for readings generally in the 20s, with perhaps a few upper teens in the normally cooler locations in the northeast. The center if the high pressure moves just to our north on Wednesday, so winds will be a little lower than today.
Although conditions are okay right now, dry air and weak winds aloft, strong radiational cooling and reasonable moisture at the low levels should be favorable for the formation of dense fog. This seems reasonable as south winds advect warmer and relatively moist air northward from KS across remaining snowpack. The combination of south winds and remaining snowpack will likely help the lower stratus deck and fog to linger through much of the morning, then slowly erode to the east during the afternoon. H85 temps approach 12C across far western Nebraska, and should see highs reach into the lower 60s and mid 60s where no snow cover exists.
VFR expected through the forecast TAF package as high pressure settles across area and winds remain light. High pressure will slide east tomorrow afternoon allowing for southeast winds to redevelop. VFR will continue tonight into Tuesday as high pressure settles in across the region. South Texas will remain between a large upper trough out to the east and a stable ridge out to the west. Excellent radiational cooling is forecast tonight, with temperatures generally falling into the lower/mid 40s by Tuesday morning, though a few upper 30s are likely across the inland prairies between 281 and 77.
232 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Today and Wednesday across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
1039 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Currently - A large cyclonic gyre lifting out along the mid Atlantic coast maintains strong northwest flow in wake of the earlier cold front. Steadily cooler air is rushing across the Gulf of Mexico into the Keys this evening and temperatures have fallen into the 60 to 65 range. Dew points have also plunged, and are now in the lower 50s. Mostly cloudy skies will continue with temperatures plunging broadly into the 50s, ranging from the lower 50s in the Upper Keys and upper 50s in the Lower Keys. Strong northwest winds have relaxed some in wake of this mornings cold front passage and an evening surge.
As a result of the way warmer than normal temperatures, had to boost overnight lows in many locations. Snow will fall at the higher elevations of the Cascades, mainly above 4000 feet MSL, and snow showers over the Blue Mountains are also expected through Tuesday. Then Tuesday night and Wednesday an upper trough will move across the region and forecast area which will cause the flow to become northerly behind the trough, and therefore drier conditions. This will bring somewhat cooler air down from the north, and cause some upslope snow showers over the eastern and northeast mountains, and possibly the Oregon Cascades and in Central Oregon.
1157 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 High pressure will result in dry weather and seasonable temperatures the next few days.
Otherwise, forecast low temperatures to fall to near freezing areawide.
308 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 Snow chances will continue for part of the day with slow moving low pressure.
Given the stratus/fog, have increased lows a couple of degrees for tonight in the mid teens to lower 20s, with warmer points in the west thanks to WAA. For example, obs and satellite this afternoon show Winner, SD reaching the lower 40s with little snow cover and no stratus. Do still expect those along/west of the James River to remain warmer than points further east with the WAA through Tuesday. Calm and variable winds will turn more southeasterly through tonight, and increase slightly as high pressure slides off to the east through Tuesday. Lows are likely to remain on the warmer side in the 20s. Upper level ridging remains in place for Wednesday, with southerly flow in place as well. Winds will increase, with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front.
Clouds have cleared across most of the area with a few low end VFR cigs along the highway 84 corridor slowly eroding. Deep upper troughing will remain in place over the eastern seaboard of the US with upper ridging building over the central US. Current satellite imagery shows thick low clouds lingering right now but some clearing has been noted along and north of the highway 84 corridor. With most of the key systems not moving much, northerly winds will remain elevated keeping high temperatures at bay tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 50s. By Wednesday, highs will slowly begin to rebound as high pressure finally begins to move overhead allowing for temperatures to climb into the upper 50s to possibly 60 degrees.
Around 09Z the low level jet will have moved east away from KDHT and KGUY ending LLWS for these terminals. Overall, the short term is looking very reasonable for the beginning of February as a ridge of high pressure builds in aloft and dominates the weather pattern.
913 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Surface analysis this afternoon shows north-south oriented high pressure sitting over the central CONUS while a powerful storm system rides up the northeastern coast. High pressure expands west to the Rockies with a developing storm system just off the west coast. Aloft, a highly-amplified pattern of a trough over the eastern CONUS with a ridge over the western 2/3 is holding fort. While the center of the high pressure area will shift off to the east during the day tomorrow, aiding in a shift in wind direction from NW thru this evening to SE during the day tomorrow, the prolific low clouds will hinder any appreciable warm air advection.
Overall the forecast still looks to be on track, although will raise snow totals slightly across portions of the northern and central valley as well as SW VA given as radar shows increasing snow showers across these areas as was hinted at by some of the high res models. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 25 48 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 23 41 24 49 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 37 24 43 26 48 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 20 39 21 48 / 30 0 0 0 10 NC.
In any case, conditions will remain quite uncomfortable with brisk northerly winds combining with temperatures falling to near or slightly below freezing by daybreak.
Ample sunshine and a little warmer thermal profile should boost Wed highs into the low to mid 30s.
With the ridge overhead earlier this evening, surface winds had become calm for most of the region. Typically dry air and calm winds overnight allows temperatures to plummet, however, a canopy of upper ridge spillover clouds moved into the area between 9-10 PM and slowed cooling. Expect the passing mid to upper cover to linger through much of the day under southeast winds around 5-10 mph with temperatures this afternoon a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Expect temperatures tonight to be several degrees warmer than this morning.
959 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Persistent cloud cover and CAA along northwest flow has kept temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the region.
In the upper levels, a trough will remain over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Southeast with a cold, dry air mass in place. Highs will be in the lower 50s. Lows tonight will be around or below freezing in most locations with temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Cool, high pressure will advect into the region, bringing dry weather for mid- week.
302 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 Upper low has pushed east into the Delmarva, and the snow has retreated into eastern Kentucky as the last vort lobe dives down the backside of the low into the Carolinas. Even with partial sunshine, mid/upper 30s will do it as anything warmer will fill back in with strato-cu given the trapped moisture near 2500-3000 feet. High pressure will be settling over the Ohio Valley to start off the forecast period Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees through Wednesday under weak ridging.
High pressure is currently over the Mid-Mississippi valley. Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures will be quite chilly tonight with lows Wednesday morning from the lower 20s to around 30 degrees. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
Deep upper troughing will remain in place over the eastern seaboard of the US with upper ridging building over the central US. Current satellite imagery shows thick low clouds lingering right now but some clearing has been noted along and north of the highway 84 corridor. With most of the key systems not moving much, northerly winds will remain elevated keeping high temperatures at bay tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 50s. By Wednesday, highs will slowly begin to rebound as high pressure finally begins to move overhead allowing for temperatures to climb into the upper 50s to possibly 60 degrees.
A trough will pass through the plains states Wednesday night and bring with it chances for some light snow and much colder temperatures.
JLN has made it up to the upper 30s, but most locations remain in the low to mid 30s. The upper level low over the OH valley was slow to push eastward. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 20s. Will have rising upper heights as the upper level ridge begins to build eastward into the plains. The upper ridge axis should shift eastward across the area on Wednesday with low level warm advection developing in advance of the next wave.
258 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Upper ridging will build over the Southern Plains with sw flow aloft. Wed will be the warmest day with downsloping winds and strong thermal ridge, for this time of year, ushering in temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s and the Rio Grande hitting the 90s. Thurs high clouds and cooler air form a cold front will prevent temps from climbing into the 80s. An upper level trough will move out over Western Conus and drop into plains Thu/Fri, unfortunately bringing no precip into the area.
Gehring (Issued 315 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will continue to slowly approach the area through tomorrow, moving overhead Tuesday night.
This results in high temperatures ranging from the upper 20s west to the lower to middle 30s east. Cloud trends are very uncertain tonight as the ridge of high pressure pushes into eastern WI. Given what's happening beneath the ridge in MN this morning, with shallow moisture trapped beneath a low-level inversion, have gone more pessimistic with clouds tonight.
Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Tuesday as ridging aloft moves slowly out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Although northwesterlies aloft are expected to intensify during the period, much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep precip chances out of the area through late Tuesday. Prevailing southerlies in the lower levels will draw slightly warmer air into southwest and central Kansas tonight. Expect lows down into the 20s(F) in west central and central Kansas to the lower/mid 30s(F) farther south closer to the Oklahoma border. An ongoing warming trend will push highs well into the 50s(F) across central and portions of southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon with the lower/mid 60s(F) likely in extreme southwest Kansas. Ridging aloft will break down as it transitions east through the Central Plains Wednesday.
Deeper moisture could also produce a flurry or two, mainly in the higher terrain of NE Alabama and adjacent middle Tennessee. Overnight lows will drop quickly into the low to mid 20s.
243 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Temperatures will moderate further today as upper ridging shifts more squarely over the High Plains. Plenty of mid-upper level cloudiness caught up in the ridge early this morning will tend to thin and shift southward through the day. At the surface, a weak trough/low will sag southeastward across the South Plains today, veering the flow. The axis of the mid- and upper-level ridge will begin shifting east on Wednesday.
An upper level trough will move southeastward through the Great Basin on Wednesday. It was a warm airmass too with a freezing level above 8,000 feet. The upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest is shown by both the GEFS and EPS to pass to the east with little if any shower activity over SoCal.
Upper low off Pacific coast begins to migrate inland tonight, spreading precipitation toward Idaho. The precipitation is still expected to shift across the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night, Southwest flow aloft is still favorable for higher elevation snows, especially across the higher elevations of the Sun Valley/Stanley areas as well as Island Park. Warmer lower elevation temperatures precede cold frontal passage Wednesday night, which will limit snowfall potential especially across the east/south and through the southern portions of the Snake Plain.
Lowered the Tuesday morning lows a degree or two, still ranging just above freezing across C LA to the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Winds have remained a bit gusty out of the NNW, but pressure gradient will finally begin to relax this evening and into the overnight hours as high pressure nudges closer to the region.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are expected Wednesday into the weekend.
45 Tide levels have recovered to MLLW across the board in Galveston Bay and so will let the Low Water Advisory expire as expected at midnight.
110 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 Cool, high pressure will advect into the region tonight and Tuesday, brining dry weather to the forecast for mid-week.
255 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 A strong upper level trough will linger across the region through tonight, before departing Wednesday.
Low clouds and breezy conditions are expected to continue into tonight behind a cold front. The upper trough will linger along the Eastern Seaboard before finally shifting offshore Wednesday night. Low temps will dip to the low to mid 30s Wednesday night and with winds dropping off, we could see some widespread frost.
/issued 217 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021/ Upper ridge building into the region today will continue over the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
1045 PM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 Updated Aviation Strong high pressure developing across the region will allow for continued warm temperatures through Wednesday, despite considerable cloudiness. High temperatures across the lower deserts should top out in the mid to upper 70s during this time.
Upper level ridging will help keep cloudiness away with VFR conditions expected. The atmosphere is still to dry to produce any precip today and with mostly sunny skies temperatures back into the 70s with a bit cooler around south Padre Island.
/issued 258 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021/ Upper ridging will build over the Southern Plains with sw flow aloft. Wed will be the warmest day with downsloping winds and strong thermal ridge, for this time of year, ushering in temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s and the Rio Grande hitting the 90s. Thurs high clouds and cooler air form a cold front will prevent temps from climbing into the 80s. An upper level trough will move out over Western Conus and drop into plains Thu/Fri, unfortunately bringing no precip into the area.
618 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 A deep trough remains anchored over the eastern US this morning with plenty of light snow being observed across the central Appalachians, extending into portions of east Kentucky and Ohio. Drier air associated with some subsidence on the western side of the trough is evident from southern Michigan and across Indiana. Despite the afternoon sunshine, temperatures will struggle to get above the freezing mark today, especially given the snow on the ground in most areas. Ridging at all levels will pass eastward over the region on wednesday night, resulting in quiet conditions.
High pressure currently traversing the region will shift east of the area today bringing winds around to the southeast for all of South Texas. Temperatures should warm into the lower 70s for much of the area. As low pressure over the Rockies deepens on Wednesday, southeasterly flow increases to moderate levels. High temperatures will be warmer as well, into the lower 80s west and 70s east.
319 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 Quiet weather continues with high pressure to our north. This high pressure will slide to the east, and winds will shift from the northeast today to east tonight and eventually out of the south later on Wednesday.
358 AM MST Tue Feb 2 2021 The mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Rockies today. Meanwhile, mid and upper level moisture ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast will continue to stream through the ridge throughout the day, though precipitation is unlikely. The trough along the West Coast deepens tonight with a closed low circulation developing along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models indicated moisture moving northeastward ahead of the trough encounters a weak overrunning environment over the region which, when combined with modest jet level divergence, is expected to bring scattered light showers to the mountains and central valleys overnight. Precipitation expands throughout the day on Wednesday as the low over the Pacific Northwest moves southeastward over the northern Great Basin late in the day.
A cold front will move across Nevada tonight through Wednesday morning bringing the chance for showers, especially in northern Nevada.