Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Seeing a slightly warmer elevated mixed layer this afternoon which will lead to convection shifting a little further west-northwest into western and north central KS. Canadian high pressure will begin to build into the plains, as the front pushes south, so expect a cloudy cool day for Fri. Ketcham Cooler drier air looks to push into the area for the weekend, with the cold front pushing well south of the area. If the ECMWF plays out, the cold front may push all the way into the Gulf coast states. Canadian high pressure looks to build into the plains, with cooler and drier air pushing south across the forecast area.
Rain chances wl also begin to incrs fm the SE tngt and Thu as well, with the highest chances noted ovr the SE half of AR.
1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance One more day of high pressure will serve the area another heater of around 90 degree temps, even if the amount of high clouds is already starting to increase as Cindy makes a move toward land.
Slightly cooler temperatures today and Thursday will warm again for the weekend. Few changes made to the forecast with the main story continuing to be the ridge of high pressure over the southwest. Hot temperatures will continue into the weekend, but they look to be slightly cooler than what we've seen earlier this week. Last night's weak cold front helped to knock back temps about 5 degrees or so and values look to remain below records.
Thursday will be another pleasant day, with similar temperatures, if not a couple degrees cooler than today.
257 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 The trough axis presently over New York and Pennsylvania this afternoon. A line of thunderstorms can be noted at the base of the trough. We will be in ridging/subsidence in the wake of the trough tonight. For the most part, ridging will hold for the day on Thursday. However, warm advection/isentropic lift will be knocking on the door of the western ridges by afternoon. Believe we will be a degree or two warmer for high temperatures, which places highs around 90 degrees.
301 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High pressure will remain west of the area through Thursday.
Early this morning, high pressure is over the Appalachians, whereas a weakening trough lies just to our north over central IN/IL.
For Thursday, upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will sink south as a trough moves over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will south push in northern Colorado early Thursday morning. This cold front is expected to track across the Denver area 9-10am. Gusty northeast winds behind the front will usher in moisture and cooler air. Precipitable water values climb to around an inch across much of the lower elevations by late Thursday afternoon. Highs will be cooler Thursday with most locations topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Southern areas may be a little warmer and approach 90 degrees.
236 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High clouds will increase during the evening and overnight as a warm front approaches.
However, ridge aloft across the area and continued warmer than normal temps at 500mb around -5C will keep rain chances near to below normal.
1022 AM PDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A weak disturbance is moving through the region today bringing slightly cooler but still above average temperatures to Nevada. Mountain obscuration not likely with very high cloud bases, except in the highest ranges. Be advised that density altitudes will be extremely high with temps in the lower 90s at KELY, mid 90s at KWMC and KEKO and upper 90s at KTPH.
346 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A persisting upper high across the southwestern U.
659 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High clouds will increase during the evening and overnight as a warm front washes through the area.
205 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Upper level analysis has broad but flat ridge across the western CONUS with fast zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extends from western Manitoba through west central South Dakota, around KPHP at 19Z. Better chances for convection will be overnight as a weak upper level disturbance moves across the forecast area pushing the cold front to the east. Cooler air will move into the area during the morning, with highs Thursday afternoon only in the 70s.
305 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High pressure remains our dominant feature across the SWRN USA. Today, the center of the high is located across SERN AZ with largely zonal flow across the northern half of the country.
East to west frontal system dropping southward will stall just to the north of our area early tonight and then shift back north as a warm front late tonight and Thursday.
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Hot and humid, will be the prevailing conditions over the next couple of days as the broader pattern across the central Plains transitions from a trough to a more zonal flow, only to be flowed by another large trough, which should make for some rather nice weather for the weekend. In the near term, water vapor imagery shows a weak trough moving to our east this morning with a ridge to our west, which is flattening and spreading east into the Plains States.
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High clouds will increase during the evening and overnight as a warm front approaches.
Tides/seas: Tides have gradually been piling up against the islands and peninsulas on the lower sides of the bays.
321 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High pressure will build over the area Tonight and Thursday.
High pressure centered over AZ and NM will continue to control the dry and hot weather over the area today and tonight, though mid level moisture is gradually increasing under the high.
321 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 As the warm front that developed storms today lifts northeastward into central Minnesota, warm and more humid air at low to mid levels build in across the area, along with moderate surface dewpoints in the upper 60s. As the aforementioned front moves out of the FA, its associated cold front will be moving southeastward into the area from central South Dakota early this evening. It will be more of a conditional threat, given cooler high temperatures and cloud coverage. Speaking about temperatures, it will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
Hot and mostly dry weather continues today while strong high pressure remains centered over the region. Heat Warnings and Advisories remain intact through Thursday with the lowest elevation areas continuing through the weekend. A weak low pressure trough to our west over the Lake Tahoe region will sweep east across Utah and Colorado on Thursday resulting in an increase in westerly wind speeds.
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites as a high pressure ridge aloft resides over the region. /Issued 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Another hot and humid day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure reigns supreme across the area.
High pressure over the Four Corners region will continue to bring above normal temperatures to the central California interior this week. Not to be the intentional bearer of bad news, but the weather is likely to get a little hotter this weekend as a strong high pressure ridge over the Four Corners region retrogrades into California.
Very warm mid week with a cold front in the vicinity late in the week into the weekend. Forecast on track as area remains in a lull between rounds of convection in very warm and moist low level southwest flow, beneath upper level westerly flow with embedded short wave troughs, into a roughly west to east baroclinic zone just north of the area.
820 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Fair and seasonal weather will continue most of this week under weak high pressure aloft. Warmer weather and monsoon moisture increase this weekend for an increasing chance of thunderstorms mainly in the mountains during afternoons. High pressure aloft is a little weaker today through Wednesday so it won't be so hot.
/issued 400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: Low level wind/moisture surge crossed the region last evening/early this morning, which along with the cooler temperatures aloft with the upper level low, sparked a robust area of showers and storms across the waters and mainland south of I-75.
/issued 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A flattening 500mb ridge is expected to move into the central US while a weak inverted trough over eastern Mexico continues to bring in surges of moisture across the region. The 00Z GFS indicates a fairly significant layer of dry air in the lower to mid levels through the period, which could cap off rain chances.
Cooler and quieter weather in store today as higher surface pressures build in from the northwest. Cooler temps and higher dew points mean that humidities will be higher today, bottoming around 20 percent or perhaps slightly lower. This is consistent with what the high res models are suggesting.
Similar to yesterday expect convection to begin to develop along the sea breeze over coastal locations by late morning, with the highest storm coverage and pops then setting up along the I-75 corridor during the afternoon as the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries collide during the mid and late afternoon hours. The ridge position will support east-southeast winds around 10 knots across the Gulf waters the remainder of today with a weak onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
520 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with cool front from western ND to northwest WY and southern ID. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow now over the area as high pressure weakens over the southern Plains and moves eastward. Wednesday will be a little cooler behind the front, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The heat will return as the ridge and high pressure rebuild over the intermountain west and the Rockies.
1032 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 12z soundings indicate indicate high temps today should be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, as advertised in going forecast. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites as a high pressure ridge aloft resides over the region. /Issued 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Another hot and humid day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure reigns supreme across the area.
The high position is expected to shift slightly south and east for the the next few days. Later in the week, the high strengthens and shifts back north and west.
/issued 455 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ The weak shear axis remains to our S this morning, extending from portions of extreme SE TX into S LA, with the morning GOES-16 imagery depicting a a mid level circulation along the lower Sabine River Valley just N of Sabine Pass. Meanwhile, flat upper level ridging and associated dry air noted on the 7. 95um imagery are anchored over OK/AR into the Mid-South region this morning, with the short term progs more bullish today than in recent days in maintaining the strength of the ridge over this area for the next couple of days, thus keeping the shear axis to our S longer than anticipated.
653 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Lee troughing will lead to gusty south-southwesterly low-level winds, and a building low-level thermal ridge across the forecast area today into at least Wednesday.
1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Weak low to mid-level trough across Louisiana combined with a surface boundary from Natchitoches to Tyler will be sufficient to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of northeast Texas and Louisiana.
1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Upper level ridge prevails across the southern U. Temps are climbing toward 90 degrees and will top out in the lower 90s this afternoon. /issued 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ A typical summer time pattern will continue over the Mid-South over the next couple of days as an upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the area.
The diffuse front will continue to linger over the area today while Bermuda high pressure ridges in from the Western Atlantic. The highest moisture will remain east with precipitable water values at 1. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the highest threat east given relatively high precipitable water values. Went with the higher temperature guidance given recent verification. Highs in the lower 90s. Convection will diminish overnight with low temperatures in the lower 70s. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
These sites should generally bounce around between low MVFR and VFR ceilings, but the low clouds should lift to VFR by 14Z as they are not very widespread or thick. Through the short term a flat mid and upper level ridge will remain just to the north.
Mainly dry, and slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. The HRRR shows the best chance of rain through late morning over the southern tier counties, but overall the high res model keeps activity scattered and disorganized this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will reach the low 90s inland with heat indices near 100 this afternoon.
/issued 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Weak low to mid-level trough across Louisiana combined with a surface boundary from Natchitoches to Tyler will be sufficient to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of northeast Texas and Louisiana.
With high pressure still in control, expect another quiet day across the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 92 74 / 0 0 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 70 90 73 / 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 70 91 74 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 90 69 / 0 0 10 20.
919 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Broad southwesterly flow developing aloft behind the departing ridge of high pressure will provide continued cooling and drying through Wednesday. The ridge of high pressure will build back into the Great Basin by this weekend, supporting well above normal temperatures and a possible return of monsoon moisture. Quite a bit drier at ridgetop level on Wednesday and chance of any afternoon convection is less than 5 percent.
For some reason, most short term models show convection weakening or dissipating as they move into the lower elevations. For now, will continue to place the highest PoPs in/near the Front Range Foothills and Park county, and then onto the Palmer Divide area. At any rate will see showers and tstms redevelop over the higher terrain by early aftn with outflow boundaries triggering additional activity by mid to late aftn along the front range urban corridor. Meanwhile the models have a disturbance moving across the higher terrain overnight thus there could be some additional shower activity over the higher terrain through midnight.
The high position is expected to shift slightly south and east for the the next few days.
523 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Broad southwesterly flow developing aloft behind the departing ridge of high pressure will provide continued cooling and drying through Wednesday. The ridge of high pressure will build back into the Great Basin by this weekend, supporting well above normal temperatures and a possible return of monsoon moisture. no eddy and as a result the low clouds have been slow to develop and have no made much inland progress at all.
/issued 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ A typical summer time pattern will continue over the Mid-South over the next couple of days as an upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the area.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across North Florida this afternoon. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the eastern portion of the Florida Straits today.
747 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will move south of the region early this evening. High pressure then builds in for the weekend.
956 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure will prevail into Saturday.
Maliawco Upper trough over the Rockies today will drift east while a couple of disturbances drop into northeast Montana on NW flow over the weekend.
855 PM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure aloft will build in from the Eastern Pacific towards California this weekend. An upper level ridge of high pressure along the CA coast this evening will edge e mainly into central and srn CA on Sat. A weak upper level trof is forecast to move into central CA on Sun, then into srn CA on Mon, but 500 mb heights over the forecast area will remain rather hi and in the 582 to 584 dm range.
This will continue to change as low level moisture and warmer air is advected north to northwest around the deep layer ridge across the Atlantic. We should continue with partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows generally now anticipated to be in the lower to mid 70s given clouds.
721 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Cooler and drier air will settle in for the weekend.
500 mb heights start to rise again Saturday over our area in response to a trough moving into the Mississippi Valley. This will start to push the boundary north again as a warm front.
823 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Cooler and drier air will settle in for the weekend.
/Issued 326 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ Current water vapor imagery reveals broad cyclonic flow with the main upper low centered over central CO. This low is beginning to lift northeastward towards the central Plains. These showers and storms are struggling to maintain as moisture and instability are very limited as they move off the higher elevations. This evening and overnight the main 500mb axis of the upper low is progged to cross the area with a reinforcing shot of northerly winds mainly between 03z and 09z. However, as the upper low pushes further northeast the pressure gradient will relax and winds will decrease especially by Saturday afternoon.
831 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late weekend as moisture builds ahead of an approaching cold front.
643 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 The upper level low continues to slowly make its way toward our area, bringing us the potential for a couple rounds of storms. A cold front will move through behind the convection, cooling temperatures into the 60s and 70s for the rest of the weekend.
1132 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Slow moving upper low is centered in far southeast Colorado late this afternoon. Short-term; Hi-Res models insist this low will track toward the northeast and be centered south of Lexington near the NE/KS border by early Saturday morning. NAM and 4KM NAM very slowly lift the upper low northward across the forecast area Saturday. The broad mid-level trough will be over the western and central CONUS (inland from the West Coast) at the start of the period with a closed 500 hPa low over the Middle Missouri Valley.
727 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure will prevail into Saturday.
1040 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Update A low pressure system moving northeast from the southern Plains states will bring some showers tonight.
/issued 450 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017/ Through tonight: Water vapor imagery loop once again shows a dirty elongated high pressure ridge stretching from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic.
923 PM MST Fri May 19 2017 Broad area of low pressure will continue to exit the Four Corners region with high pressure building in from the west.
A warming trend will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds along the West Coast. Our warming trend continued today as an upper level ridge centered offshore along 130W edged closer to the coast. Temperatures are expected to climb a few more degrees over the weekend, especially inland, as subsidence under the upper ridge continues to warm the airmass over our region. The warmth over the weekend will push heat risks into the moderate category for a few of our warmer inland areas in the East Bay and Salinas Valley (locations that will see highs in the lower to mid 90s), but good nighttime cooling in the valleys will lessen the impacts of warm afternoons in those areas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 88 69 80 / 0 60 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 88 67 78 / 10 30 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 67 88 68 79 / 10 30 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 86 63 78 / 20 50 30 70.
946 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Cooler and drier air will settle in for the weekend.
An upper ridge tonight will be displaced by an upper trough on Saturday. The ridge will allow for mostly clear skies and light winds tonight. The upper trough, located in southern British Columbia, will track southeast and reach the ID Panhandle by Saturday afternoon. Moisture and instability accompanying the trough will lead to a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly in Baker County and the West Central/Boise Mountains. Gradual warming trend to continue as broad coastal upper ridge builds inland. Short wave trough on the northern edge of the ridge will reach the southern BC coast this afternoon. Trough will turn southeastward into our CWA Saturday bringing scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms to the central Idaho mountains Saturday afternoon, and the rest of central and south- central Idaho Saturday evening.
Lows will range from the lower 70s interior to mid to upper 70s from Melbourne to the immediate Treasure coast.
S winds 5-10KT with cold front approaching the winds will become SW then NW during afternoon from W to E with fropa.
1052 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Upper level low pressure beginning to lift north this afternoon. But at this time believe that with just a bit of instability above the low level moist layer will see showery activity. Even with the fairly strong dry punch aloft through southwest MN and northwest IA to east of upper low centered near KFSD around 00z, should at a minimum have a continuation of more scattered showers or even drizzle with the shallow moist profile. Gradually the passage of negative tilt trough axis will diminish the precipitation threat from southwest to northeast, with stronger northwest winds gradually taking hold through the night.
751 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Aviation A low pressure system moving northeast from the southern Plains states will bring some showers tonight.
616 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Upper level low pressure beginning to lift north this afternoon. But at this time believe that with just a bit of instability above the low level moist layer will see showery activity. Even with the fairly strong dry punch aloft through southwest MN and northwest IA to east of upper low centered near KFSD around 00z, should at a minimum have a continuation of more scattered showers or even drizzle with the shallow moist profile. Gradually the passage of negative tilt trough axis will diminish the precipitation threat from southwest to northeast, with stronger northwest winds gradually taking hold through the night.
A cold front will move south through the Big Country toward midnight and along the I-10 corridor around sunrise. /issued 308 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) An upper low now centered over Colorado this afternoon will lift northeast over the Central Plains by Saturday afternoon. A cold front will push south through the Big Country tonight and through the remainder of the forecast area by noon tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s across the northern half of the area as the cold front moves through. The southern half of the area will see lows in the morning in the low to mid 60s. (Saturday night through next Friday) As the upper low lifts further to the northeast and over the Great Lakes area, the upper flow over the forecast will be zonal.
1242 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure will prevail into Saturday.
Forecast is on track for tonight with lows in the lower 70s.
MIC Tonight through Saturday night, An active weather pattern will take shape this weekend over the ArkLaMiss as a powerful trough over the Plains/Midwest shifts eastward and helps to break down the ridge currently centered over the Southeast. Initial thunderstorm development should begin by late morning and be somewhat disorganized due to relatively weak deep layer shear and low level flow only 15 to 20 kts, but as the trough axis and cold front approach late Saturday, the larger scale lift may help to organize storms resulting in great storm coverage.