Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
627 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A cold front currently poised along the US/Canadian border will race southward today, reaching the Ohio River by early evening. Ahead of the boundary, southwesterly winds will transport warmer air into the region resulting in afternoon highs climbing into the lower to middle 70s.
1200 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1021 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO WAS PULLING UP STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE U. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPING LOWS AT THE BEACHES IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL TO THE LOW/MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER OUR WATERS ON FRIDAY.
1222 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED.
Rapid moving H5 short wave within a long wave western H5 trough will bring chance for -sn/--sn mainly north highway 412 Tuesday night.
Precipitation will gradually dissipate on the south side of the band as forcing pulls northeast, and dry air combined with the eastward departure of the low will eat away at precipitation from west to east this afternoon and evening. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible on the back side of the precipitation as saturation is lost aloft, so have included this on the back side of the snow for this evening into the early overnight hours. Have expanded the winter weather advisory to all but the far southeastern corner of the CWA where temperatures are still above freezing, precipitation type has been mostly rain, and the changeover to snow will not occur until the band has almost lifted out of those areas.
921 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 UPDATE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT BRINGING FREEZING RAIN.
Focus turns to winter precip on the NW sector of the low. That said, with colder air pushing into the area tonight, freezing of any residual water on roads may become an issue. Still, bridges and overpasses may present a problem if untreated. While the wind advisory is expected to be allowed to expire at 21z, strong winds with gusts to 30 mph will still be possible this evening as the low pulls out of the area. This ridge is expected to remain in place, keeping the forecast dry. A dry front and associated upper trof will reinforce cooler air across the region.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
/ISSUED 313 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO SRN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO ARIZONA THEN SWING INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED REGIME AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE SEE FOG/FREEZING FOG SET UP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE LOW TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT.
A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the region by late week and into the weekend promoting strong valley inversions, fog and low clouds, but clearing skies in the mountains.
304 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 WEAK MIDLVL RIDGE WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST. IT SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE PLAINS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
Lingering low and mid clouds across SW KS this afternoon will gradually erode through this evening, in response to dry subsidence taking over behind the departing cyclone. Trough axis will approach SW KS during the late afternoon, with the primary vort max passing south of us across W TX.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY, COOLER DRIER WEATHER SETTLES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM AROUND THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SOUNDINGS AND AWAY FROM PARAMETERIZED PRECIPITATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS ON TUEDAY EVENING THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES.
402 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY EJECTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
The low should continue to lift northeast and reach St Louis by midnight. Otherwise high pressure starts to build in bringing cooler and drier air.
600 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. AND THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER SERN MO MOVING NEWD IN CONCERT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LOOKS LIKE 24 MORE HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE. FORECAST MINS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EWD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO DIE OFF.
951 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
COOLER MINS TONIGHT ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65 WHERE NUMBERS WILL POSSIBLY DIP TO A RANGE OF 43 TO 48.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS CAUSING HAVOC TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR EAST.
THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. BELFIELD AND DICKINSON SOUTH AND EAST TO HETTINGER AND SELFRIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OR JUST TRACE AMOUNTS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. BY TUESDAY EVENING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AND GENERALLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE DRY SPELL WON'T LAST MORE THAN 24 HOURS BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
/FOR THE 00Z TAFS/ MODELS ARE HIGHER WITH DEW POINTS THAN OBSERVATIONS SHOW AND THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTING OVER MISSOURI. AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVING OUT A PATH ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES DID GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE LOW LAYERS AREN'T TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHORTER-LIVED AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
403 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTING OVER MISSOURI. AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVING OUT A PATH ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES DID GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLOUDS IN THE DELTA STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE 994 MB UPPER LOW WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO MISSOURI. TUESDAY TEMPS WILL RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S/60S.
648 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
As next trough moves into the area, models develop isentropic upglide over the NE zones, which could keep MVFR visbys/cigs at KMAF thru the end of the forecast period. However a series of additional upper troughs will continue to swing through the area this week and reinforce the cold wx at the surface.
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DIDN'T HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA AS EXPECTED WITH YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUN. NEBRASKA COUNTIES NOW COVERED BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS PUSHED WEST AS FAR AS THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR FROM SPENCER THROUGH BARTLETT.
WITH VARIOUS AIRSTREAMS CIRCULATING AROUND MAIN UPPERSYSTEM BOUND CLOSELY TO MAIN UPPER LOW. STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NOW. AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE SNOWFLAKES AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE BROADSCALE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS IN EARNEST. NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FEATURE ZIPS THROUGH LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SO IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE. TRENDED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS DIABATIC EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH SUBLIMATION/MELTING WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND RADIATIVE PROCESSES AT NIGHT.
355 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE SPLIT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OVER ERN UT AND WRN CO AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SO HAVE PAINTED A CLOUDY DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER START IN THE MORNING BUT WILL HOLD BACK HEATING DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL SHUT OFF MOST OF THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THU.
503 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 Deep upper low and surface circulation just southwest of Illinois this afternoon. This, in concert with the freezing precipitation north of a line from roughly Havana to Bloomington has caused significant tree damage and power lines down for Central Illinois. Although the storm associated precipitation is slowly dwindling, an area of precip closer to the low center, with a few rumbles of thunder will move through in the early evening hours. That being said, temps still dropping to freezing or just below should freeze any freestanding water at the surface and make for intermittently slick travel. Dry conditions expected with highs in the low and mid 30s from around I-72 north and upper 30s/low 40s to the south.
1029 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THRU THE CENTER OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY MOVES IN ITS WAKE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE LIKELY. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
402 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 AS LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM GULF COAST STATES. AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A BROAD UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
611 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DIDN'T HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA AS EXPECTED WITH YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUN. NEBRASKA COUNTIES NOW COVERED BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE THE RAIN WITH IT TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 402 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY EJECTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE AS TRAILING RAIN BAND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER MINS TONIGHT ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65 WHERE NUMBERS WILL POSSIBLY DIP TO A RANGE OF 43 TO 48.
Local radars show a solid line of showers and thunderstorms pushing eastward across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle ahead of a cold front.
642 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL EVENT IS UNDERWAY. THIS FIRST ONE BEING DRIVEN BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AND THE SECOND CAUSED AS A LOBE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THAT RANGE ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR RED WING TO EAU CLAIRE. AND THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE LOOKS TO LIE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST TWIN CITIES METRO TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN.
404 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A 994 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR KSTL. VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST BUT COOLER AIR IS COMING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. SOME PEAKS OF SUN TOMORROW AND MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
THEN ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH COMES SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. ON TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST. WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.
/ISSUED 325 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO EJECT AWAY FROM THE AREA AS FORECAST.
537 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
A FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
834 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS COLORADO WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THEN ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH COMES SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. ON TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST. WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.
645 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
1043 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
346 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE DEPTH OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS NOW REACHED TO 2500 FEET. /ISSUED 402 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ AS LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM GULF COAST STATES. AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
THE ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP MN TEMPS ABV FREEZING. MODELS INDICATE FREEZING TEMPS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS UPPER JET CONTRIBUTES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM DETERMINISTIC RUNS. FREEZING SFC DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WIND NOTWITHSTANDING. INCREASING CLOUD COVER (GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS MSTR AT 325K ISENTROPIC LEVEL WHICH CAPTURES THE ACTUAL CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS/NRN MEXICO AND ADVECTS THIS MSTR ACRS THE CWA OVERNIGHT) SHOULD PRECLUDE FREEZING TEMPS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE AREA OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 100% AND WINDS ALMOST CALM BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY WITH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system was continuing to move to the northeast across the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. Additionally, a few pockets of freezing drizzle will be possible where we see a brief loss of cloud ice. The big concern if this occurs will be temperatures below freezing. thus resulting in a freezing fog threat.
/ISSUED 241 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ LAST BIT OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE SOUTH AND EAST OF NORMAN THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT, BUT PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS ADDED TO THE SW/W WHERE SOME BL MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF (FINALLY) LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS UPPER JET CONTRIBUTES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM DETERMINISTIC RUNS. FREEZING SFC DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WIND NOTWITHSTANDING. INCREASING CLOUD COVER (GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS MSTR AT 325K ISENTROPIC LEVEL WHICH CAPTURES THE ACTUAL CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS/NRN MEXICO AND ADVECTS THIS MSTR ACRS THE CWA OVERNIGHT) SHOULD PRECLUDE FREEZING TEMPS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COOL TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AS CAA STILL GRIPS THE REGION.
There has also been some freezing drizzle as upward vertical motion continues across the area while the mid/upper levels have dried considerably. Will downgrade the existing winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory for the entire area to continue through 6 PM primarily due to the continued freezing drizzle. There has been some discussion of freezing fog potential but believe that would be focused farther to the southeast of the forecast area where there has been more rainfall not currently covered by sleet/snowpack. True snow cover is less than the forecast models believe, so have gone with warmer temperatures than most guidance.
THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WEST ALABAMA WITH A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.
STORM IS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER LOW CLEARLY VISIBLE IN GOES WATER VAPOR OVER ST LOUIS MO. STILL CONCERNED WITH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD WITH THE LOW APPROACHING AND A HEAVY SNOW PERIOD WITH WINDS/GUSTS ON THE INCREASE FURTHER. THIS THEN PIVOTS NORTHWARD AS RIDGING BUILDING OCCURS.
1005 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE THE RAIN WITH IT TONIGHT.
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH FREEZING RAIN.
437 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WYOMING SOUTHEAST TO THE TIGHT UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MISSOURI WRAPS A CHUNK OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO BELOW 10 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS AND THIS TREND WILL HOLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AT THE SFC. GENERALLY EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK.
851 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. MPING REPORTS FROM VENANGO COUNTY CONTINUE TO INDICATE FREEZING RAIN. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST AT ELEVATED VALLEYS IN THE RIDGES DUE TO LOCAL SHELTERING EFFECTS. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY IN FACT BE OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AS LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED. AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF AND FILLS. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY AROUND NOON WITH COLD ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND STRATUS AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
609 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 AVIATION A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT BRINGING FREEZING RAIN.
DEEP SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A MCV HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH ALABAMA. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/UPPER 60S. TO BECOME WARMER AND BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW AND BRING AN END TO MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
1039 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015 ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER WY AS PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.
For today, a cold front will surge across southern Missouri, bringing a cooler and drier air mass to the region. Cooler readings are forecasted in central Missouri for Tuesday.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ARCING OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. WESTERN WA WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND AND MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY.
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.