Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging centered just west of Illinois will keep the storm tracks west of Illinois, closer to a stationary sfc frontal boundary in the Plains. Dewpoints will start out very comfortable in the lower 50s, and only climb into the upper 50s this afternoon. WAA continues as the mid level ridge to the west slowly breaks down and warmer air continues to work its way into the Midwest.
643 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Upper level high pressure remains firmly entrenched over the southern Rockies with a ridge extending into the Great Lakes region.
Otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny through the afternoon as it warms up into the upper 80s to the lower 90s. What little inversion exists for Sunday will quickly erode thanks to southwest low level flow ahead of a cold front.
1208 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will bring clear skies and warm weather to the area through the weekend.
/issued 411 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/ A dominating upper level ridge just to our west will continue to amplify today. This will lead to marginally cooler temperatures this afternoon. A weakness in the ridge will move south over the area stemming from ongoing convection on the central high plains early this morning. As the aforementioned ridge amplifies, upper flow will increase out of the northeast.
Highs today will range from the low to mid 90s. Tonight, high pressure continue to build west across the area.
Peaky upper low offshore will keep a threat of showers around the region today and possibly Sunday.
636 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Ridge of high pressure a loft continues to build across the region this weekend. the thermal ridge is slated to run from the MN arrowhead southwest. Dew points currently progged to hold in the low to mid 60s. While the high pressure ridge is expected to keep any shower/storm activity at bay. models remain in good agreement with sliding an upper level trough across the top of the ridge Sunday night, flattening it out. At the sfc, an associated cold front will move into western WI overnight, gradually laying up from west to east across IA/northern IL while the mean trough departs east.
A ridge extending across the Florida Straits will result in light winds across Florida Keys waters. This set the low temperature record for June 18 in Key West.
1010 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A warm, dry weekend is in store as a large area of high pressure moves in from the south. As far as our weather is concerned, generally clear skies, maybe a few cumulus clouds over the higher terrain, and continued warm temperatures. By Sunday, the center of the high pressure will be over southern Colorado with little change to our sensible weather.
Although drier air is slowly filtering in with the ridge, upper 60s to around 70 degree dew points remain across the south/west closer to the inverted trough. 16 Humidity levels will be lowering over the weekend as cooler air pushes in from the east.
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will remain in control this weekend.
A weak cold front will continue to push south over the area. Aloft the upper low pressure trough was over the eastern U. S while upper ridging over the western U.
A low pressure system remains off the Oregon and Washington coasts this morning with a weak front over the Cascades. An upper level trough will move over the area today maintaining a chance for showers.
A large area of high pressure remains entrenched east of the state. The clouds will have an impact on the diurnal heating and likely will keep readings cooler over the northwest this morning.
with a drier and slightly cooler airmass in place should see plenty of sunshine and seasonable temps. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 65 88 64 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 88 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 54 84 56 / 0 0 0 0.
1147 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will bring clear skies and warm weather to the area through the weekend.
/issued 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridge centered just west of El Paso early this morning will shift north and extend from Colorado southwest into Arizona by later this evening.
Strong high pressure aloft now over New Mexico will continue to build Northward into Colorado with a dry and warm airmass in place. The upper level ridge to south of Colorado will build northward this weekend. With the upper level ridge rebuilding over the region, mid level temperatures will warm today and is expected to cap convection today and tonight. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate Colorado through the period. On Sunday, the upper high will be centered over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, which will result in hot and dry weather.
939 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A mostly sunny and hot day is in store as a ridge of high pressure will be over the forecast area. A strong cold front will move across the forecast area this evening bringing gusty winds with it. Southwesterly flow continues to dominate the upper levels, as an upper level low progresses over the northwest US. This will bring with it cooler and drier air. Due to rising heights and an abundance of sunshine, high temperatures will reach into the 90s across much of the lower elevations ahead of the aforementioned front. Dry conditions move in during the early part of the week as a strong ridge builds over the desert southwest.
Temperature rise may be stunted some by cooler air behind boundary but expect current forecast highs to be in line given presence of dominant ridge to the west and warm temperatures aloft. With cooler temps and modified moisture behind boundary, don't expect heat indices to get out of hand today. /issued 411 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/ A dominating upper level ridge just to our west will continue to amplify today. This will lead to marginally cooler temperatures this afternoon. A weakness in the ridge will move south over the area stemming from ongoing convection on the central high plains early this morning. As the aforementioned ridge amplifies, upper flow will increase out of the northeast.
/issued 405 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area of the United States and extended over the BRO CWFA will produce a continuation of dry weather within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and early tonight. However, relief will arrive in the form of an inverted 500 mb trough that will move down the Texas coastline and into northern Mexico late tonight through Sunday.
725 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. A pronounced ridge axis and associated height rises aloft will build --from a sub-tropical ridge centered over NRN Mexico and the Desert SW-- across the ERN U. Those conditions, and climatology for forecast low level thickness values around 1375 m, favor low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s, except upper 50s in the Coastal Plain and ERN Sandhills. Low pressure will remain off the Carolina coast, as high pressure extends across the area.
Stalled cold frontal boundary sitting across NE FL along the I-10 corridor in the middle of June and morning sounding PWAT's close to 2 inches will pose a rather complex forecast with today's main threat being locally heavy rainfall along and near the boundary. Abundant cloud cover today will hold max temps into the 80s but enough heating and instability will be available to combine with low level convergence and upper level trough/energy to produce thunderstorm activity.
Negative factors are increasing proximity to 300 mb ridge axis and slower flow aloft to help move storms into the area.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s, with low lying valleys in southern sections, including the I-10 corridor, falling into the upper 40s. High level cloudiness will offset increasing warm advection Sunday, so have highs mainly in the lower 80s.
/This evening through Sunday/ Weak surface ridging exists over the state this afternoon with very pleasant fall conditions. Readings should be at least a few degrees warmer than last night just with the warm advection alone and have trended the lows in that direction.
The first touch of lake effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge tops. We have already had snow reported at BFD and JST, but with relatively warm skin temps, any accums that occur over the higher elevation under the more persistent lake bands, will be minor.
Weak high pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana.
For tomorrow, cooler conditions will prevail behind the passed front. Calling for highs in the lower 70s north to around 80 south.
Upper ridge will amplify over the interior West Sunday as Pacific trough nears the coast.
753 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains will move south tonight.
Update High pressure will dominate the overnight hours for Northeast Montana.
This will maintain a dry weather weather pattern with cooler temps tonight as the high settles over the area.
High pressure across the region, both at the surface and aloft, will continue to result in quiet weather across the forecast area over the next 24 hours. High pressure will slowly shift east of the CWA on Sunday, allowing flow across the region to become more east to southeasterly through the course of the day.
1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 It simply doesn't get much better than this for a mid-fall weekend across the Lower Missouri Vly. Low amplitude upper ridge still in place across the Nation's midsection this afternoon. Southerly flow on the backside of this feature has returned to the area with warm air advection in full effect this afternoon with temps hovering in the lower 70s. This feature is expected to continue rounding the upper ridge axis overnight before dropping southeast into the upper Miss Rvr Vly and eventually the western Great Lakes on Sunday. expect a weak cold front to track south through the fcst area on Sunday with winds shifting to the north during the afternoon hours.
Strong cyclonic flow has taken hold over the eastern third of the CONUS, with broad ridging extending across the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest. Warmer temperatures will be confined to areas south of I-4 with cooler spots along the Nature Coast and interior sections of northern Florida. Some rural areas across the Nature Coast may even see some upper 30s by daybreak Sunday as cool high pressure settles into the region. Another gorgeous day is expected Sunday, with slightly warmer conditions as highs reach into the mid to upper 70s and lower 80s. The models are in agreement the cooler and drier period with an upper ridge across the Gulf of Mexico with a filling upper trough offshore from the Eastern Seaboard. On the surface, high pressure is centered over North Florida and the surface winds are northeast with moderating temperatures.
622 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016 High pressure will slide off to the east over the next 24 hours, allowing a weak cold front poised across the Northern Plains to drop into central Illinois by late Sunday afternoon. A cold front will drop through the CWA Sunday night, but due to the lack of return moisture this weekend, will come through dry. This high pressure ridge will quickly slide east through the Great Lakes region and allow southerly winds to return to the area for Tue into Tue night. Overnight lows will also remain in the 40s, so expecting any frost or freezing through the period. VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period, as high pressure gradually pulls away to the southeast. Tomorrow, an approaching cold front will increase the mixing of gusty LLJ winds down to the surface.
643 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 1248 PM CDT Skies continue to clear from west to east this afternoon as high pressure shifts east. With high pressure departing, low level southwest flow will continue tonight along with warm air advection and support warmer lows tonight in the 40s. 12z NAM and GFS runs suggest that the cold front will hold off for most of the day across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. Another impressive thermal ridge ahead of the front coupled with gusty southwest winds will allow all areas to reach the upper 60s and many areas having a good shot at 70 (and higher south), especially from the metro area southward.
629 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Upper trough is currently departing the the northeast CONUS with broad ridging over the Rockies/Plains. At the surface, lee troughing remains in place across eastern CO/western KS providing another day of above normal temps. This will push a weak cold front across the northern and central Plains but will do little to knock our temps down, with above normal highs expected for both Sun and Mon. There remains good model agreement that a weak impulse will lift out of the desert southwest and out into the high Plains by Tue afternoon. Upper ridging will quickly build-in over the Rockies/high Plains behind the departing wave.
Have gone a bit cooler with lows Sunday night. as the high will be slowing drifting through the region.
517 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016 An upper ridge axis moved to the east, opening the area to increasing southwest flow aloft. Sunday and Sunday night the broad trough off the west coast will continue deepening and moving slowly east.
Winds diminishing rapidly this evening as high pressure over the region with clear skies. As the high drifts east, E to SE winds 6-8 kts expected by 18z SUN. Upper trof continues to slide away from the region to the east, while ridging aloft currently over TX builds in from the west. Benign weather continues through the upcoming week as low to mid level ridging is progged to remain the dominant feature, though it will wax and wane a bit, especially with an upper trof forecast to push through WED into WED night.
1136 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Low pressure over the western Dakotas at 19Z will track eastward overnight pulling a cold front through much of the region by Sunday morning. Cooler air will spread into the area on Sunday behind the front with highs expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, mainly across northern parts of the area.
high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon introducing dry and cooler continental air across Florida, the first significant air mass change of the fall season. Temperature guidance has trended slightly lower than the previous few model runs, with daybreak low temperatures Sunday about 5-7 degrees cooler than this morning's readings. The high pressure will shift east to across the Florida Panhandle on Sunday, switching surface winds to NE.
This will lead into a cooler, but still mild, Sunday with a breezy northwest wind.
Light south winds will develop further west across the Delta so temps will remain much warmer tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 71 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 68 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 NC.
1139 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure at the SFC and aloft will combine to produce quiet wx thru the end of the wknd. A short wave is fcst to top the ridge tonight and then pass to the N/NE of the region tomorrow. The short wave will drag a cold front thru the area Sun aftn. 2% The effective cold front should be up across northern Missouri stretching into northwest Illinois.
635 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Low pressure over the western Dakotas at 19Z will track eastward overnight pulling a cold front through much of the region by Sunday morning. Cooler air will spread into the area on Sunday behind the front with highs expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, mainly across northern parts of the area.
A ridge of high pressure remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States this evening. Light south winds will develop further west across the Delta so temps will remain much warmer tonight.
High pressure over the Mississippi delta will shift east tonight and Sunday and hold north of the coastal waters through the first half of the week.
As low pressure across western North Dakota into central South Dakota this evening propagates east through the night, low level moisture in southern Canada will wrap around behind the low, with stratus spreading across much of the area late tonight into Saturday morning. A low pressure system continues to push west to east across the northern plains. Dry and mild as upper level ridging develops over the area late Sunday.
608 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance High pressure over the area today will shift east tonight. So we should see highs a good 8-10 degrees warmer tomorrow.
Overnight, a cold front will move east across the area and bring breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
Temperatures overall will continue to be well above seasonal averages on Sunday ahead of a cold front stalling out in the southern Texas Panhandle.
The first touch of lake effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge tops.
High pressure will gradually build into MT tonight and tomorrow, bringing a mix of clear skies and SCT-BKN high clouds as patches of moisture traverse the westerly flow aloft.
A cold front will move through the region, but it will pass through dry although strong winds are expected in its wake.
646 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure at the SFC and aloft will combine to produce quiet wx thru the end of the wknd. A short wave is fcst to top the ridge tonight and then pass to the N/NE of the region tomorrow. The short wave will drag a cold front thru the area Sun aftn. 2% The effective cold front should be up across northern Missouri stretching into northwest Illinois.
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/ Breezy and mild weather was occurring this afternoon, as North- Central Texas was under the influence of upper high pressure. At the surface, the area was sandwiched between broad high pressure over Lower Mississippi Valley and a lee trough over the Western High Plains.
Mid level ridging shifts eastward as a very weak perturbation crosses the central plains overnight. Highs tomorrow are a few degrees warmer given we start out in the lower 50s.
/Issued 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/ A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the southern Plains keeping large scale subsidence and dry air in place.
Low level cyclonic flow associated with the deep low pressure system over New England is finally loosening its grip across Se Mi. A low amplitude mid level trough axis over the Montana/Canadian border this afternoon will move into upper Mi on Sunday, then advance into the eastern Great Lakes/upstate New York Sun night.
952 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 A few high clouds will move into the area from the southwest in response to a weak upper disturbance moving northeast around the western periphery of an upper ridge over the region. as the upper ridge center over SE TX continues to shift SE into the Nrn Gulf overnight. /issued 258 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/ Deep upper trough over eastern Pacific serving to keep much of country locked in wx pattern, including our area with stg upper ridge in place centered generally near the LA gulf coast.
1129 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Upper trough is currently departing the the northeast CONUS with broad ridging over the Rockies/Plains. At the surface, lee troughing remains in place across eastern CO/western KS providing another day of above normal temps. This will push a weak cold front across the northern and central Plains but will do little to knock our temps down, with above normal highs expected for both Sun and Mon. There remains good model agreement that a weak impulse will lift out of the desert southwest and out into the high Plains by Tue afternoon. Upper ridging will quickly build-in over the Rockies/high Plains behind the departing wave.
Dry high pressure was the main wx feature, with the axis of the high located just to our west. For tonight, the ridge axis will move across Mid TN bringing another cool night with clear skies and light winds. By daybreak the ridge will be over our eastern counties, and this is where the greatest potential exists for temperatures in the mid 30s and patchy frost. Sunday will be a super sunny day with highs in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
725 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure will build across the region over the weekend.
732 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure will build south of the area through the weekend.
Tonight: A weak ridge in place this evening will slowly slide off to the east of the area late tonight. Temperatures will be warmer than last night due to increasing cloud cover across the area from the north and northwest. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs topping out in the upper 40s to around 50 for most locations. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites into Sunday morning as a brief high pressure ridge lingers. Low pressure will approach the area Sunday morning bringing the possibility of rain showers at each of the TAF sites along with MVFR ceilings.
Potent mid-upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move east as a mid level ridge builds eastward into the GOMEX and towards Florida. At the surface, the strong high pressure ridge moving through the lower MS valley will slided ESE and begin to weaken. The high pressure ridge just north of the area will weaken Mon as a frontal boundary pushes off the eastern seaboard. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and east and produce an increase in E/NE flow midweek. The stronger and more persistent onshore flow will produce milder max temperatures in the lower 80s and noticeably warmer low temps in the mid to upper 60s, except lower 70s along the coast.
Behind the front on Sunday winds will be from the north and temperatures will be a little cooler.
745 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure passes south of the area overnight and Sunday. Weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses Sunday night, with gusty winds in the mountains.
Lows will drop down to the lower 50s across the Hill Country and escarpment areas with mid 50s along and south of Highway 90. Highs are forecast to reach the lower 80s along the I-35 corridor with warmer temperatures across the coastal plains.
Some of the typically cooler locations may reach 34-36 degrees, so brief, isolated frost will be possible mainly in portions of the northeast counties. The dry conditions and expected limited coverage will preclude the need for a frost advisory, but a mention of patchy frost was added to the forecast in cooler portions of Cherokee, Etowah, Calhoun, Cleburne, Clay, and Randolph Counties. Meanwhile the extratropical cyclone currently affecting the Northeast will continue to lift northeastward into Canada while a mid-level ridge builds over the northern Gulf, placing the forecast area in dry northwest flow aloft.
Western zones are seeing WSW flow depending on positioning to the aforementioned trough/boundary. CAA behind this trough will set temps up overnight to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s. combined with an amplifying H5/H7 ridge. will set the region up for another dry day with above normal highs ranging in the lower to mid 60s.
844 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure at the surface over Mississippi was ridging into SE Texas early this evening. /00Z TAFS/ Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved over the Mississippi River Valley allowing for winds to turn E to SE this afternoon.
1011 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure will build south of the area through the weekend.
1017 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure centered to the south will keep dry weather over the region tonight.
Otherwise the low amplitude mountain wave along the Front Range continues to generate scattered standing wave clouds and downslope breezes in and near the foothills which have kept temperatures up this evening in this area. we still have a dry stable airmass in place with a lee trough in eastern Colorado. We still expect the lee trough to move east later tonight with a high pressure center dropping across eastern Colorado and dropping temperatures back into the 70s. Looks like another mainly dry and mild autumn week ahead for Colorado with high pressure in control with just a few exceptions.