Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1228 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure and drier air will continue to keep calm weather locked in across the region through the remainder of the weekend and early in the week.
High pressure with rising heights will bring warming temperatures and light south to southwest winds today.
1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 (Today and tonight) Our area will remain under the influence of broad ridging aloft today and tonight.
Ridging still the dominant pattern with general light southerly flow. We will see general zonal flow across the midsouth Midweek with another ridge building across the eastern half of the nation during the end of the work week. Additionally, a cold front is expected to approach the Midsouth from the North Midweek. For now the weekend looks slightly warmer and drier.
Not quite as breezy and a couple degrees cooler, but still with a hazy sky from elevated wildfire smoke. HRRR shows smoke concentrations decreasing and pushing north tonight into Monday as the upper high currently just SE of the area moves quickly east.
A cold front extended across southern portions of Wisconsin and Iowa into southeastern Nebraska. This front will drop southward to near the Missouri and Iowa border this evening, the lift back northward as warm front on Monday.
Pleasant late summer weather is expected throughout the upcoming week, as broad low pressure troughing persists across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
246 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The center of a strong (594 dam) 500 mb ridge over the region this afternoon will shift east of the area on Monday. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s as of this writing, so most areas should at least max out in the mid 80s. East-west ridging aloft will be in place for most of the week, with the westerlies largely remaining to our north.
247 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Water vapor imagery continues to highlight a decaying stationary front draped over the Florida peninsula, with a formidable, sharp ridge over the North Atlantic. With the ridge axis intersecting the Southeast, breezes continue to be out of the east and moderate. This will result in a breakdown of the aforementioned ridge, with light to gentle southeast to south flow commencing.
225 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Flat ridging provided a seasonal day. Clouds will increase tonight, along with coverage of showers, as heights lower with a broad trough moving across the northern Rockies.
An upper high will continue to shift east through KY and TN today, keeping subsidence in place as drier air remains aloft for another day. For now, will enjoy a slightly warmer, dry day as highs reach the upper 80s and winds veer from more easterly to southerly. As the upper ridge shifts east tonight into Monday, low to mid level flow will become more southerly allowing moisture to increase.
A very low amplitude s/w ridge is moving through the Dakotas. This is helping draw warmer temps aloft behind an exiting high pressure currently over the Red River Valley. The low amplitude s/w ridge quickly exits east by tomorrow morning pushed out of the region by an incoming mid-upper trough, readily evident on water vapor imagery out of the Pac NW. Throughout the rest of the day, instability wanes as surface cyclone moves deeper into Minnesota. Additional synoptically driven showers are expected as the upper trough moves through later Monday, dragging with it a cold front sweeping west to east across the region.
At 700 mb, temperatures were still quite warm, but 1 to 4 degrees C cooler than yesterday.
1127 AM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The latest water vapor images and 500-mb analysis shows wavy zonal flow across the northern CONUS, with a flat high pressure over the southern CONUS. Q-G forcing with this wave is fairly weak, which is consistent with the wave moving through a long-wave ridge.
1150 AM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Aviation Section Updated A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight from west to east. Otherwise, generally seasonable temperatures can expected behind the cold front over the next few days. Cooler temperatures aloft provide some weak convective instability, while a trailing surface front advances through North-central Montana. Temperatures trend a bit cooler on Monday following the cold front. Patchy frost may be possible in the higher elevation valleys under clear skies.
Kept the higher POPs near 50 percent with good agreement between the GFS and NAM. A cold front will also be advancing southeast during the day. The atmosphere does continue to moisten up behind the cold front, with POPS increasing to 40-50 percent after midnight across the west.
345 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week.
1215 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week.
The elongated upper level ridge still over the area will not provide any significant changes in the weather over the next 24 hours or so.
256 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 We're ending our weekend on a warmer, slightly more humid, but still sunny note. Weak upper ridging will allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s.
254 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight from west to east. Otherwise, generally seasonable temperatures can expected behind the cold front over the next few days.
242 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure and drier air will continue to keep calm weather locked in across the region through into the early work week.
Weak ripples in the upper level flow and occasional interaction with the low level jet/moisture transport will result in on and off rain chances mostly north of the front thru Monday. An accompanying cold front will also sweep in, merging with the front to the south, and eventually exiting east/southeast later in the day Tue. However, if convection could develop southward along the cold front, more instability could come into play.
(This evening through Monday) Upper level ridging remains in place over our area as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves slowly north toward the Texas coast. The main effects for our area from the tropical system will felt tomorrow, with an increase in moisture, slightly cooler temperatures, and a slight chance to chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line. The latest CPC 6-10 outlook has above normal temperatures for mid September due to an upper level high pressure ridge remaining across Texas.
High pressure will keep temperatures above normal in northern Arizona through this week. Troughs passing to the north of the Great Basin is favored to keep west-southwesterly flow and a dry weather pattern pattern over the Southwest this week.
239 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will remain offshore through early this week, with dry weather continuing.
Fire weather concerns will continue to tail off over the next couple days as low level moisture gradually increases and temps trend cooler, relatively anyway.
The low pressure system moving through the region will sweep a cold front through the CWA on Monday, as well, with low level dry air and cold air advection ensuing heading into Monday night.
Deeper moisture will begin advecting inland tomorrow as inverted troughing extends across the western and northern Gulf of Mexico while the ridge progresses further east. Morning lows will read in the mid 60s east to lower 70s west followed by highs ranging from the upper 80s east and a few degrees cooler in the west due to the better rain chances.
304 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Upper level ridging will setup over the area early in the week then weaken and be replaced by some troughing over the eastern U. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge west from the Atlantic Ocean keeping an easterly flow in place into midweek. Then during the second half of the week two different areas of low pressure, one moving east along the northern gulf coast, TC Nicholas, and another potential TC north of the Bahamas. This will shift the low level flow to a more southeast to south direction.
1145 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather, with a warming trend, through early this week. A pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and low pressure moving north of the area should allow for some gusty winds within the CWA starting this morning. With continued southerly flow, temperatures are expected to warm above normal during the day with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s in the mountains. Tonight's low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s in the lowlands and low 60s in the mountains. A high pressure system will remain over the area for Monday and Monday night. A southerly wind flow will allow moisture to increase as the high pressure system slides off to the east.
1027 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Surface dewpoints have increased a few degrees since this time yesterday, with afternoon high temperatures likely to run a little cooler than those observed yesterday. Upper ridging will continue to lose influence over the next few days as the pattern flattens.
A combination of increasing cloud cover and increasing dew points at or over the 70-degree mark nearly area wide will keep milder lows in the low 70s overnight Sunday. Continuing southeasterly surface flow will maintain this moisture and cloud cover, which will also moderate Monday high temperatures into the low-to-mid 80s.
118 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Today: Aloft, ridging will strengthen across the region as the center of the anti-cyclone shifts eastward across the Tennessee Valley towards the southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to the east over the Atlantic, extending westward into the Southeast coast. The combination of the ridge aloft and deep dry air (precipitable water values less than an inch) will result in a dry forecast for the forecast area.
Expect highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s, with cooler temperatures where rain and clouds linger the longest.
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A frontal boundary will continue sagging southward as a wave of low pressure moves off to the east this morning. It will be notably cooler today with the frontal boundary to our south. Highs will range from the low/mid 70s around the Niobrara river to the middle 80s near Imperial. By Monday a flat trof will pass by to our north with accompanied by a deamplifying upper level jet streak while the lingering frontal boundary remains draped across the area at the surface.
137 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry, warm weather early this week. High pressure south of the area continues dry and unseasonably warm weather through Monday, with just a bit of valley fog in the morning, amid west to southwest low level flow that will slacken tonight as the gradient weakens. A high pressure system will remain over the area for Monday and Monday night. A southerly wind flow will allow moisture to increase as the high pressure system slides off to the east.
756 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure and drier air will continue to keep calm weather locked in across the region through into the early work week. Upper ridging will remain in place Monday with PWATs less than an inch across the area with only a marginal increase in low level moisture leading to a cumulus field redeveloping during the afternoon across the area. With anomalously high 500mb heights, expect highs to be slightly above average, in the low 90s.
648 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, winds will subside early this evening, then increase and become gusty again on Monday as the surface pressure gradient remains tight across the region in response to a surface trof of low pressure across southeast CO and ern NM. An elongated H500 high pressure system should keep the majority of the Panhandles dry today as the center of the high pressure system drifts very slowly to the east from southern AZ. At the base of the rather weak H500 trough, latest 12/12Z model and numerical data does show a weak perturbation moving east across southern CO Rockies. Stagnant synoptic pattern continues to remain in place with high temperatures tomorrow ranging from the lower to upper 90s.
Shower and storm coverage will increase by midweek as the remnants of Nicholas begin to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1048 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A cold front will sag south from NY into PA and stall overhead for the next couple of days.
High pressure across the Desert Southwest will bring near record high temperatures to portions of southeast Arizona through tomorrow, especially across the lower deserts. As the ridge breaks down we'll see a weak zonal westerly flow with temperatures slowly sagging a few degrees as heights and thicknesses fall.
As of 03z/10pm, regional radar reveals a small cluster of thunderstorms moving off the High Plains of western Kansas.
752 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week.
540 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Scattered convection across the higher terrain will be winding down this evening with most areas shutting down for the night. Monday is setting up to see another round of isolated convection along the ridges that will again dissipate into the evening hours as they move off and over the valleys.
As time goes on, deeper southerly flow will cause the higher smoke concentrations to drift north of the CWA, but an opaque look to the sky is still expected until Monday night. A cold front extended across southern portions of Wisconsin and Iowa into southeastern Nebraska. This front will drop southward to near the Missouri and Iowa border this evening, the lift back northward as warm front on Monday.
726 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure continues to dominate our weather through at least midweek.
We're ending our weekend on a warmer, slightly more humid, but still sunny note. Weak upper ridging will allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s.
932 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week.
723 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A cold front will sag south from NY into PA and stall overhead for the next couple of days.
Temperatures are running some 2 to 12 degrees warmer across our region at 02z compared to 24 hours ago and for the most part, the current forecast has a pretty good handle on this.
645 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 (This evening through Monday) Upper level ridging remains in place over our area as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves slowly north toward the Texas coast. The main effects for our area from the tropical system will felt tomorrow, with an increase in moisture, slightly cooler temperatures, and a slight chance to chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line. The latest CPC 6-10 outlook has above normal temperatures for mid September due to an upper level high pressure ridge remaining across Texas.
958 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will remain offshore through early this week, with dry weather continuing.
A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight from west to east. Otherwise, generally seasonable temperatures can expected behind the cold front over the next few days.
1040 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A cold front will sag south from NY into PA and stall overhead for the next couple of days.
748 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A cold front will sag south from NY into PA and stall overhead for the next couple of days.
705 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will remain offshore through early this week, with dry weather continuing.
Remaining warm for most, but a bit cooler in southern Lower Michigan.
VFR conditions are still expected with any of the higher ceiling heights that develop. Fire weather concerns will continue to tail off over the next couple days as low level moisture gradually increases and temps trend cooler, relatively anyway.
A weak cold front has fired off quite a few light showers across the area; only a few hundredths of an inch have fallen so far at the Great Falls International Airport. -Coulston A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight from west to east. Otherwise, generally seasonable temperatures can expected behind the cold front over the next few days.
739 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic extends over the Florida peninsula with easterly boundary layer flow across the region.
1031 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure continues to dominate our weather through at least midweek.
As alluded to the lower Keys picked up only a few hundreths to just shy of a tenth of an inch. Additional rain still looks likely for the overnight as PWats will remain above 2 inches along with subtle low level vorticity pivoting around the low level ridge. All of the forcing for these showers and thunderstorms will be dominated by mesoscale forces in the lowest levels. Aloft we are on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico with not much in the way of vorticity coming around the ridge. Thereafter, ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate breezes through Monday along with enhanced rain chances before winds and rain chances gradually diminish through the week.
Clear skies will dominate for the rest of the forecast area tonight with lows dipping close to where they have been the last several nights, generally in the low to mid 60s.
The center of a strong (594 dam) 500 mb ridge over the region this afternoon will shift east of the area on Monday. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s as of this writing, so most areas should at least max out in the mid 80s. East-west ridging aloft will be in place for most of the week, with the westerlies largely remaining to our north.
A cooling trend will begin today as onshore flow increases and high pressure aloft weakens. A cooler day in most locations today but especially the coast where the sea breeze kicked in earlier, aided by chilly ocean temps in the low to mid 60s for the most part. Weak troughing will replace the ridge that has been in place for the last week or so, increasing onshore flow and bringing temps back to normal or even a little below normal by Tue or Wed in most areas.
We should see most if not all of that activity sink into Iowa by evening, with mostly clear skies building across the area as high pressure to the north nudges farther south. However, return flow will strengthen across the west by late afternoon and we'll see instability begin to work back into the area ahead of a short wave trough that will move through Monday night. The low-level jet is progged to increase across the area Monday night, intersecting an area of elevated frontogenesis and instability over our area, which should lead to a WSW-ENE oriented band of fairly significant (1-2") precipitation. The higher resolution guidance is favoring a more southern position for the heavier precipitation, which does make a bit more sense (in comparison to the GFS for example) given where the baroclinic zone aloft looks to intersect the low-level jet.
Given the high temp and dewpoint spread and latest RAP analysis showing high DCAPE in place, the main concern will be damaging wind gusts.
High pressure continues to dominate the region, causing temperatures to be an average of 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight from west to east. Otherwise, generally seasonable temperatures can expected behind the cold front over the next few days. A weak cold front has fired off quite a few light showers across the area; only a few hundredths of an inch have fallen so far at the Great Falls International Airport. Otherwise, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms were attempting to cross the Continental Divide, but were generally falling apart once they moved off of the higher terrain. A cold front is moving from west to east across the region this afternoon. Showers or isolated thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. Slightly cooler air moves into the region for tomorrow, with a small rebound on Tuesday.
Widespread rain showers are likely with a mid-week cold front.
A cold front extended across southern portions of Wisconsin and Iowa into southeastern Nebraska. This front will drop southward to near the Missouri and Iowa border this evening, the lift back northward as warm front on Monday. GKS The chance of showers/storms will return beginning Tuesday afternoon as an upper level trough moves eastward through the Northern Plains and sends a cold front southeastward into our area.
A broad upper level ridge over the southeastern states and the eastern Gulf steadily weakens through the period as Tropical Storm Nicholas is forecast to move from the southeast Gulf into eastern Texas.
1138 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge axis to remain oriented from west to east over NM.
Discussion: The upper level ridge that has been the main catalyst for above normal temperatures recently will slide east today replaced by quasi- zonal flow aloft. one tonight and another tomorrow morning will force a cold front toward the CWA. In addition to the low-end severe threat, this storms will be capable of efficient rainfall with PWAT forecast to range in the 1.
This should be along a convergence zone, same overall placement of a typical, warm front, associated with Nicholas.
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 A cold front will sag south from NY into PA and stall overhead for the next couple of days.
400 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure centered just off the North Carolina coast will drift slowly eastward and further offshore through early this week, while continuing to extend westward into the Carolinas. A trough sitting over central NC will linger into the morning, with relatively low pressure over the area expected through tonight. A 595 dam H5 high pressure aloft, centered over the southern Appalachians, will weaken slightly as it drifts eastward to over the Carolinas today and offshore tonight. Expect continued moderation in temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 60s. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to be inland over TX Tuesday morning and should very slowly migrate east-northeastward into LA through Tuesday night.
At this time, rainfall totals appear to be well beneath flash flood criteria with the highest totals through the short term roughly around an inch and a half to two inches across the lakes region of deep east Texas. In terms of storm total values through the rest of the week, the lower Toledo Bend area could expect around 5 inches of rainfall with lesser amounts elsewhere. Increased instability areawide combined with widespread rain and clouds will limit afternoon high temperatures to the lower to mid 80s this afternoon and again on Tuesday.
This system will continue to move out of the area by late morning, leaving the lower elevations dry.
A cold front moves into the area Tuesday evening bringing a chance for scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. a few degrees cooler than last night but still above average.
Temperatures today expected to be similar to yesterday, perhaps a few degrees cooler across northern and western Oklahoma.
429 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge extends broadly across the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic. As this trough develops and tracks towards the Carolina Coast, expect the local pressures gradient to open up and winds will slacken significantly out of the southeast. In the latter part of the week the surface through lower level ridge will build westward across Florida as Nicholas and the Carolina low lift northeastward into the northeastern United States. With the ridge nearby, surface winds are expected to become gentle out of the east. A ridge across the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic will shift eastward further into the Atlantic as Tropical Storm Nicholas arcs north then northeastward into the northwestern Gulf states.