Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
603 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will slowly press into our very humid air mass today. The cold front will continue east of the area on Tuesday. Active weather across parts of the CWA this evening as a very slow moving cold front pushes toward the Quebec/western Maine border early this evening. A warm and very humid air mass ahead of the front with dew points in the low 70s for most inland areas. Along and near the coast low stratus held in all day with temperatures in the low 60s with areas of fog. Hail threat may end up being as large as today's threat since freezing levels will be lower.
637 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will continue over the region through mid week.
A few lingering showers and perhaps even an isolated storm may still be ongoing across the furthest eastern portions of our CWA to start the period just ahead of an incoming cold front. Low temps will be around 8 to 10 degrees cooler than last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is a few degrees below normal. Highs will generally be in the lower 80s for most areas which is a few degrees below normal. Cold front to the south and east of the forecast area Tuesday night will become stationary with drier air mass moving across the region. A few showers and storms still a possibility over the southeast corner but skies will be mostly clear except far south Tuesday night and lows in the cooler lower to mid 60s with 50s higher elevations.
Overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 70s. Locally heavy rain will be a threat given the high PW with any persistent slow moving or training cells. Daytime highs will only be in the lower 80s at most locations due to cloud cover, with lows Tuesday night in the upper 60s to around 70.
319 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 At H5 Gulf of Alaska closed low with a strong heat ridge from Mexico into the Pacific Northwest with the west coast torching out. Hudson Bay low with waves rotating from western Canada around the backside of the low through the northern Plains Broad trough through the midwest. At the surface there is a strong cold front along the Atlantic Seaboard with multiple convective watches from Maine to Virginia. Light and variable winds tonight with clear skies and fairly dry air at the lower levels will allow heat to radiate out with lows in the 50s. Southerly winds developing and ridge building east temperatures back into the 80s and 90s.
329 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Drier air continues to advect into the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 60s across much of the area, with upper 60s confined to north MS. Winds will be light overnight and temperatures are forecast to drop into the low/mid 60s. Models are in fair agreement that this feature will move in a general northerly direction over the next few days, meandering over the northern Gulf of Mexico, then lift north across the Lower Mississippi River Valley before turning northeast through TN.
320 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The upper level trough has pushed a cold front through the region this afternoon.
238 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The upper level trough has pushed a cold front through the region this afternoon.
1104 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof to the east with broad ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, cool high pressure remains across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Western upper ridge will slowly shift over the area today and Tuesday, resulting in warm and dry weather.
159 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Hydro Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today and Tuesday as cooler air filters into the region.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across northern and central Nevada.
Increasing coverage in showers and storms expected this afternoon just ahead of an approaching cold front.
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Current observations and satellite are showing the remnants of yesterday's cold front, now stationary from the southern Permian Basin into the Big Bend. Today has been a pleasant break from the heat, but upper level high pressure near the Four Corners Region will spread east into eastern New Mexico and West Texas causing highs to warm well above 100 degrees by the end of the week.
A frontal boundary should sink into north GA overnight as the upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes.
1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Strong high pressure across the western US will build eastward and plant its axis over the Four Corners states for the next few days. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s and challenging 100 in the low valleys on Monday, then exceeding 100 and potentially reaching near record temps starting Tuesday.
A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Region will bring widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to the region through tonight. On Tuesday, the cold front will gradually weaken as it slides offshore.
1113 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level ridge will be centered over the desert southwest today and tonight, with northwest flow aloft over CO. Temps today should be a little warmer than yesterday across the southeast plains, with highs being similar to yesterday across the high valley locations.
This relatively dry air mass will continue to filter into the mid- state over the next 24 hours and while temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, the lower dew points will keep the air from feeling too oppressive.
For Tuesday night any rain will be offshore (30 POPs at best and this may be high but will give some deference to a more westward placement of the moisture (not the low itself which is expected to remain away from our CWFA).
132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A strong low pressure system over southeast Ontario will move slowly northeast early this week resulting in cooler and less humid air over our area. A couple of troughs rotating around the Ontario low are expected to cause scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in our area today and Tuesday.
We have an interesting pattern over the region this morning with an inverted upper level shear axis in place which is driven by the interaction of the synoptic trough over the Great Lakes and the TUTT over the western Gulf. Overall, the thermodynamic setup is not strong for severe storms, but there will be enough heating to support SBcape in the 2800-3300 j/kg range along with some cooler temps aloft to support a couple robust updrafts.
417 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Persistent upper-level trough will slowly drift eastward tonight and Tuesday. Another round of showers will accompany the trough mainly affecting our southwestern and southern zones. High pressure moving into the west during the morning will work to erode the cloud cover and bring an end to precipitation for most areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday due in large part to the cooler air aloft and cloud cover. Quiet weather is expected for Tuesday night with a weak ridge axis over the forecast area.
A upper level trough axis and weak surface front extend from southern Canada, southward across the Great Lakes, and into the Tennessee Valley. The upper level trough and front will weaken and become diffuse across the area, as the approaching tropical system begins to influence wind and pressure fields late tonight.
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The cloudy morning has helped to keep temperatures in check with 20Z readings only in the lower and middle 80s. The main story through the rest of the week will be the warming trend supplied by a strong upper ridge that will reside across the Desert Southwest.
Best chances for rain and thunder still appear to be with a cold front that will move into the area this weekend.
This high will keep dew points generally in the mid 50's to lower 60's. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower 60's.
A few scattered showers or thunderstorms may graze the far eastern counties of the CWA along the Buffalo Ridge, but most likely this activity will stay east. Winds turn light and variable overnight, which should allow temperatures to cool into the lower to middle 50s.
247 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front exits the mountains later this afternoon, while an upper disturbance skirts the north. High pressure builds in tonight and Tuesday. Thereafter, high pressure settles in with dry conditions through the day Tuesday.
Overall should see generally warmer conditions for temperatures into Tuesday with warmer air moving in aloft across the central/southern portions of the area.
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Currently have an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio valley with nw flow aloft over the northern and central Plains.
With temperatures running in the mid 70s, highs in the lower to mid 80s still look on track. With weak subsidence from the strong ridge to our southwest, skies today will be mostly sunny.
256 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A surface analysis this afternoon has the cold front now across middle Tennessee and far eastern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the low to mid 60s. High pressure then builds into the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night providing seasonable conditions and less humidity. Plan on high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and lows Tuesday night in the 60s.
302 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A west-northwest flow aloft will prevail around a strong upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest through Tuesday. Somewhat cooler air at the surface is producing highs in the lower to mid 80s today. May be enough moisture and instability for a few weak showers and storms over the higher terrain. Low levels remain dry over the Front Range and eastern plains, so just expected mid and high cloud off the higher terrain.
622 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper trough will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and cooler conditions through midweek. There are timing differences amongst the model guidance with this wave, so nothing more than low chance PoPs, with a focus closer to the upper trough.
Upper troughing will remain firmly in place over the region. The higher resolution models place the highest qpf over central and east-central WI, where the best forcing via mid-level fgen/upper divergence and also instability will reside.
315 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 At 18Z, the cold front was pushing across the I-65 corridor with one final batch of mostly light showers. Have updated the forecast to remove thunderstorms further northwest behind the cold front, but maintain the afternoon potential further southeast ahead of the front and along the differential heating zone.
Areas east of the cloud cover has temps in the lower 80s with lower to middle 70s across our western areas. Highs will be several degrees warmer Tuesday with more sunshine.
Clouds will move in from the west tonight which will help keep overnight lows up some leading to some 'warmer' temps Friday (but still well below guidance in the basins).
315 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a large area of arctic high pressure extending south into the mid-Mississippi Valley on the backside of a powerful nor'easter storm bringing significant snow and strong winds to the East Coast. Aloft, a highly amplified pattern resides over North America with a deep trough east and a strong ridge west, keeping the path open for cold air to reside over the north-central region with northwest flow.
The main split upper trough will approach from the southwest late tonight and move across the Cascades by late Thursday afternoon. Freezing rain and some snow is expected in the Cascade passes from this evening through much of Friday.
912 AM MST Thu Jan 4 2018 With a high pressure dominating the weather, conditions remain quiet. Upper level ridge and persistent downslope gradients will result in dry conditions with a continued warming trend today and Friday. Expect temperatures mainly in the 30s to mid 40s today, then a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Lower elevation snow cover will cause some sheltered valleys to stay a bit cooler than this, but overall temps will be above early January normals. Approaching Pacific trof and increasing westerly mid level flow will intensify the lee side trof and cause gap winds at Livingston and Nye to increase Friday night. Pacific trof will spread a chance of snow showers to our western mountains Friday night.
Mid level low pressure will drop swd across the Great Lakes region and reinforce the ERN CONUS trough, and resultant cold into the weekend. Considering both the temperature and the fact that even marginal wind will bring wind chill values below headline thresholds, have upgraded the Wind Chill Watch to a warning for the higher terrain, and issued a wind chill advisory for the rest of the area.
The cold front that brought this latest batch of cold air is in south central AL/GA at this time. With the cool northwest flow and cold advection, have not edited the high temps today, which should get into the mid to upper 20s. The exception will be across the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, where wind chills drop to or slightly below 0 for a few hours early Friday morning.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather tonight and Friday. Conditions will be dry and warmer than seasonal averages. Winds will be increasing during the day Friday around the foothills ahead of a Pacific trough.
223 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 Cold high pressure will dominate through the weekend.
Radar is still showing there may be some very light bands of snow still present as moisture is squeezed out of the atmosphere along the Southern Appalachian Mountains, but very little accumulations are likely the rest of today and would most likely only occur in the highest terrain. Locations in the Valley will likely see wind chill values in the single digits while places in the higher terrain will reach near zero, and coldest of all will be the mountains of Southern Appalachia.
255 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the United States this afternoon, with a weak disturbance moving through the northwest flow aloft just to our north. However, gone slightly warmer though than the previous forecast, as there is some thicker cirrus to our west that will likely move into the region later tonight and act as a bit of a blanket.
157 PM MST Thu Jan 4 2018 Ridging is in place across the western US, and an axis of subsident/dry air is apparent on WV imagery over our CWA. At the surface lee trough has shifted over our western CWA, with a warm front lifting over our eastern CWA. Above normal temps are expected to the west, and below freezing highs possible east of the front.
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Ridge of high pressure stretched from northern Minnesota across western Iowa into the lower Missouri Valley at 08Z. These clouds relate to baroclinic zone found on the western edge of the ridge and will impact temperatures as they spread south into the area this morning. The cold air is expected to linger over the region through Friday night as the ridge axis remains nearly stationary just east of the area from central Minnesota into central Iowa. Warming trend arrives over the weekend as western ridge slides into the plains region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 15 32 15 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 11 25 9 / 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 27 10 27 9 / 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 8 22 4 / 20 10 10 0 NC.
As our next system moves in overnight, it will bring freezing drizzle, and perhaps light snow for the valleys of north-central Idaho, and areas of northwestern Montana.
1248 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 Another re-enforcing cold front will move through the area today. Arctic high pressure will build into the region and remain in control through the weekend.
Unfortunately the triple r feature to our west is blocking this moisture.
This was from overrunning of a warmer and more humid airmass over a shallow colder thin layer of air over the valleys. An upper ridge over the northern Rockies this afternoon is the main culprit.
208 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 Another re-enforcing cold front will move through the area today. Arctic high pressure will build into the region and remain in control through the weekend.
But cooler temps overnight should result in a more land breeze pattern with winds returning out of the northeast at generally less than 5 KTs.
1127 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 High pressure and clear skies will continue over the area. The northeast third of the state will likely remain at or below freezing today with the remainder of the state warming into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
155 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Seeing slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon with increased cloud cover across the region today.
1108 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Early this morning, much of the central US into central Canada was under the influence of Arctic high pressure. For today and tonight, cold high pressure will continue to dominate over the area.
Hi-res models continue to show some elevated precipitation echoes this evening and overnight, but the cloud decks should be too high and the low-levels too dry to allow much (if any) precipitation to reach the surface before evaporating. Some patchy sprinkles and -RA are possible this evening and overnight, but confidence is low at the moment given the dry air in place at the low levels. High amplitude upper ridging over the Pacific coast will maintain mostly stable and cooler than normal weather over the Srn plains in the short-term.
To the west towards the warmer side of the thermal gradient an opportunity for freezing drizzle exists tonight, mostly in a thin zone from Williams and McKenzie counties down southeast through Grant County. Further west and south, enhanced low level moisture and upper level ridging bring a possibility of fog and reduced visibilities.
Radiational cooling conditions appear slightly more favorable tonight with lower winds, so we expect lows to be a couple of degrees cooler tonight than last night.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Broad 500 mb ridging will prevail over the RGV throughout tomorrow night. A fairly dry 500 mb short wave will move over the north and east side of the ridge axis later tonight and Fri. Moisture advection associated with this short wave will likely be limited to the mid and upper levels and the RGV should not see enough low level moisture advection ahead of the trough passage to warrant the mention of any pops throughout the first and second periods. At the surface, the ridging over south TX will continue shifting east throughout the short term period which will allow for a return of low level WAA allowing for temps to warm steadily through Fri night.
230 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 (Tonight and Friday) Mid and upper high cloudiness was spreading across West Central Texas this afternoon, as an upper level trough approached the region. It should be slightly warmer in the lower/mid 30s tonight with increased cloud cover and south winds less than 10 mph.
Warm front moving through the forecast area this morning producing little if any precipitation across SE oregon and along the Idaho/Oregon border. Current satellite and radar trends show the showers weakening as they move into Southeast Oregon and encounter the upper level ridge. Freezing rain won't be an issue in the valley as the inversion layer remains quite dry which would cool below freezing once saturated.
As the lift associated with the trough moves through the area this evening and overnight, should see an increase in returns on radar.
318 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 After a brief break above freezing yesterday, temperatures today are struggling to get into the 30s across the Midsouth with Arctic high pressure building into the region.
238 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Latest upper level analysis indicates well established trough over the eastern third of the CONUS with ridge building in over Great Basin.
Nearly perfect aviation conditions will prevail across the RGV during the upcoming TAF period as surface and 500 mb ridging maintains a very dry and stable atms over the region. /issued 343 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Surface observations indicate that freezing temperatures are occurring across portions of the northern ranchlands early this morning. Mostly clear skies and very light winds should continue to allow temperatures to drop to or below freezing across much of the area through around sunrise. Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to recover today with high temperatures reaching the low 60s at most locations, especially away from the coast. High temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 60s.
This would allow temperatures to dip below freezing for several hours in the interior areas. there is a small chance that the wind would remain a little stronger tonight, which does lend to some uncertainty in how low the temperatures will go tonight, but given that some areas saw freezing temperatures last night, the probability far outweighs any uncertainty. After tonight, high pressure builds to the north, which should turn the wind more north to north northeasterly.
Another cool night with lows in the teens and 20s with increasing cloud cover for Friday with moisture spilling over the upper ridge. Otherwise look for similar to warmer temperatures compared to today with help of a lee side trough keeping a downslope pattern around.
Warming to around 50 F today with cirrus riding down the eastern edge of western CONUS ridging. high-mid cloud cover will aid in keeping many more rural inland locations above freezing for the 'first' time this young year. /ISSUED 350 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018/ Today will continue a gradual warming trend through the weekend, with temperatures already generally near or a little warmer than this time last night. A light freeze is likely across at least the northern half of the area tomorrow morning, with lows ranging from the upper 20s across the Piney Woods region to the low/mid 40s right along the coast.
The sharpest pressure gradient and cold air advection for the short term period will occur from daybreak through early afternoon, before the high pressure ridge axis settles into the area by late afternoon and overnight.
A jet streak will translate down the west side of the large scale eastern North American trough tonight.
The initial question is how cold will it get Fri night and early Sat morning ? 20 below or more is certainly possible from Baudette down to Park Rapids with considerably warmer readings to the west under the influence of the warm air advection. The next few days should be quiet and mild with an approaching cold front providing an increased risk for snow mid week along with colder temps. Light northeast winds due to high pressure building in.
1020 AM MST Thu Jan 4 2018 High pressure dominating the weather across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle the next few days.
1117 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Downslope flow will help boost and spread warmer temperatures across Kansas today with portions of Central/South Central seeing daytime highs rise into the 40s. This will lower temperatures across Northern/Central Kansas on Friday with warmer readings on the periphery of this shallow cold airmass over Southern Kansas.
1113 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 Another re-enforcing cold front will move through the area today. Arctic high pressure will build into the region and remain in control through the weekend.
1026 AM MST Thu Jan 4 2018 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies with northwest flow through the Northern Plains. At the surface, trof is located over the western Dakotas. Upper ridge axis to our west will continue to nudge east and bring even warmer temps to the region for today, with plenty of 40s from northeastern WY through the Black Hills into southwestern SD. A short wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will back a cold front through western SD tonight, with the western edge of the colder air mass banking up against the Black Hills. Have kept freezing fog in the forecast for late tonight through Friday along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills, but also added areas further south/east of the Black Hills late tonight into Friday morning per latest guidance.