Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Heading into Monday, an upper low will dive southward into the Carolinas and northeast Georgia.
120 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain anchored across New England today. The flow around the high pressure will bring an easterly wind, which will help to keep temperatures below average for this time of year. After a cool start to the day in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s for highs. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with high pressure in control. The Tri-State on Monday will be situated to the north of a cut-off low across the Southeast states. A continued NE-E flow is forecast which will help limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 70s.
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. An upper trough along the east coast gradually weakens tonight across the northeastern states resulting in a cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley. The upper trough over the northeast continues to weaken through Monday night leaving weak flow across the region. And with a blocked pattern set up the closed low over the Tennessee Valley becomes nearly cutoff and drifts over the southeastern states. At the surface across the northeast, the high to the north drifts slowly east.
Although the mid to upper level ridge axis will remain north of the area through the period, there is a weak 70H short wave trough near the lower Texas coast this evening that will move into the Brush Country Monday morning.
1129 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Upper flow is becoming more southwesterly this morning as the deep trough pushes into the Pac NW. As it crosses the area today, a dryline will push through, bringing warmer and drier air to the area. CAMs continue to show storm development within a narrow area north of the dryline and east of the cold front where better moisture will remain. Cooler air will push in for Monday, but most areas will still see max temps in the 80s.
The strong upper trough over the Pacific NW will move newd into srn Canada into Mon AM. This will shift the narrow but high amplitude upper ridge into WI and the wrn Great Lakes for Mon-Mon nt. Milder low temps in the lower to middle 50s are forecast for Mon nt.
Temps tonight should be around or a degree or two cooler than last night with light easterly winds under generally clear skies. Kluber 230 AM CDT Quiescent conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week as large scale ridging dominates overhead.
/22/ High pressure at the surface will remain centered to our northeast today resulting in a light northeast to east wind across the CWA. The morning JAN sounding showed that temperatures in the mid 80s would break the low level inversion. The remainder of our CWA will remain dry with temperatures topping out in the lower 90s. Otherwise, expect the trend for hotter temperatures to continue today with readings reaching the lower 90s, while lows tonight dip back to relatively comfortable levels in the mid to upper 60s under mostly clear skies. Deep layer dry air will hold firm much of the week as our region remains on the eastern periphery of a mid level ridge.
A cold front will move through Nevada early in the week.
1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The blocking pattern that has been in place for a few days will remain with a sharp upper level ridge axis extending from the western Great Lakes to TX.
1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The subtropical ridge axis was situated from the Big Bend Country of West Texas north and east across the Central Plains. A persistence-type forecast will lead to highs in the mid and upper 90s across central and south central KS while highs over southeast Kansas top out in the low to mid 90s. A cold front will sag south toward into the Central Plains remaining north of our forecast area but helping to break down the persistent ridge. As the evening progresses, the boundary inversion will set up and will allow the low level jet to re-establish itself over the high plains.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Ridge axis nearly directly overhead early this afternoon with just a few passing high clouds across the state. Models continue to suggest that any associated shower/storm activity will struggle as it approaches the ridge axis.
As mid-level ridging continues to build into the Upper Midwest, 925-850mb temperatures moderate into the low/mid +20s (C) on Monday afternoon. In far west central MN (near Canby) an afternoon 925mb temperature of +27C is forecast, which mixed dry adiabatically under brisk southerly winds would yield highs in the low/mid 90s. Therefore feel confident enough to lean toward the warmer guidance, forecasting highs in the low/mid 90s in the west (also considering today's readings are trending toward the warmer end of guidance for highs). The mid/upper ridge continues to build through the middle of the week as the forecast area remains sandwiched between an amplifying northern Rockies trough and a low spinning over the southeastern CONUS.
140 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A Pacific cold front has pushed across the forecast area. The main result has been cooler temperatures, because it has remained windy with critical/near critical fire weather thresholds being met this afternoon especially over central and far east zones. Could see some light freezing temperatures over the western valleys mainly the Upper Green River Basin. A warm front pulls north across the forecast area Monday ahead of the next upper low pulling into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures are expected to be warmer, humidity lower and winds still remaining breezy, but not quite as strong as they were today. The cold front associated with this next system is expected to pull into far western Wyoming late Monday night. There looks to be a good shot of precipitation in wake of this cold front.
358 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A few streamers of cirrus tied to the departing upper low and some puffs of shallow cumulus are the only clouds materializing today. Confluent NW flow aloft and associated subsidence is firmly in place over the region tonight between the upstream ridge and the Ohio valley low. Today's surface analysis shows an inverted trough stretching from the low into PA which is projected to slide westward during Monday while supporting increased cloud cover and continued NE wind toward the Michigan/Ohio border. No big changes show up in the latest data for the mid week period dominated by the blocking upper air pattern that keeps a ridge over the Great Lakes.
Have already seen additional convective development over the Straits in recent hours, and there are signs of a cloud line forming along the Lower and Middle Keys.
1251 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The rest of today will be VFR with mainly clear skies as high pressure remains located northeast of the area. Though still VFR, Monday will offer winds turning more easterly with some cu spreading SE to NW across the area as a spoke of moisture rotates into southern MI around the upper level low to our south. Impressive upper low on water vapor imagery over far southern Lake MI will continue to dive into the southeast US and become cutoff over the next few days.
An upper low will move southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast states early in the week. This will result in unsettled and cooler conditions with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. Also, weak short wave troughs rotating through upper trough may provide some lift. the moisture advection will increase especially across the north and east Midlands and a weak cold front will move near the Upstate. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. In addition a cut off upper level low pressure system descends into the Southern Appalachians.
Several models move the upper low more to the south into eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina during the day on Monday. However, isolated showers or thunderstorms in northeastern Alabama in the afternoon and early evening hours are possible as additional energy rotates around the upper low. Cold air advection from the northwestern side of the upper low and any clouds/precipitation should help keep temperatures cooler on Monday. The upper low wobbles into South Carolina Monday night. Overnight lows don't look much cooler, but will be below normal for this time of year.
242 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 High pressure to our east for today has caused an east to northeast flow across the state.
These warmer temperatures are a start to a gradual warming trend for the area which will continue through the week.
The upper trough axis over the Western U. S will weaken and high pressure will nudge in from the southwest, resulting in a slight warm-up through Monday.
211 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Stratus clouds will gradually clear overnight into Monday morning as prevailing mid-level trough departs to the north and east.
145 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are expected today and tonight, mainly south of Pittsburgh, as a low pressure advances across West Virginia. The GOES-16 satellite currently displays a low pressure system exiting the Cincinnati area and advancing southeast. Building cloud cover and the overall troughing pattern will keep temperatures 10 degrees below normal. By early tomorrow morning, the low pressure system will drift south, crossing the Tennessee Valley. High pressure is expect to build to our west Monday afternoon; dry, quiet weather will prevail.
Satellite shows upper closed low moving through WA this morning, with the showers on the leading edge starting to exit the region. Upper closed low will swing into northern ID/northwest MT Today, with isolated showers possible over the eastern mountains through the early afternoon. A transient ridge will move into the region in the late afternoon, bringing a brief dry period to the forecast area through the late evening.
321 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Upper ridge from Texas into Minnesota this afternoon, with upper lows over Idaho and near Cincinnati. Upper low near Cincinnati will drop southeastward over the next day or so and take up residence over South Carolina for several days.
Tonight and Monday Canadian high pressure will continue to edge east, with developing return flow bringing increased moisture into north central and central WI on Monday. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer than the past couple nights, generally in the 40s, so frost should not be an issue. Highs on Monday are expected to reach the lower to middle 70s, except 60s along the Lake Michigan shoreline, due to southeast winds. Monday Night Through Sunday Dry and warm conditions are expected through midweek with plenty of sunshine as an upper level ridge over the western Great Lakes and a cut-off low over the Southeast U.
The other band east of a line from Opheim, Poplar, and Terry east is associated with a slow moving cold front. East of the cold front, south to southeasterly flow, west to northwest winds west of the front. Cooler and drier conditions will prevail behind the frontal passage for Monday, but a broad upper trough pattern will remain in place through the present week.
As low pressure continues to move through western Montana this afternoon, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across much of the region. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease rapidly this evening around sunset, as weak high pressure builds into the region. The best chance of a frost will occur across the higher valleys near the Continental Divide.
These storms will continue to push eastward northeast as a cold front swings through. Scattered showers have moved through the west half of the state so far today, and these appear associated with warm advection ahead of the low. CAM models agree in developing a line of storms along the cold front that will move east into central North Dakota by mid evening. After this evening, the overnight will see the front move through with cooler and drier air expected. Overnight lows tonight in the lower 50s west to around 70 east.
The cold front has completely passed through Middle Tennessee, all earlier showers have dissipated, and we are now operating in VCP 32. A couple scattered showers could impact CSV tomorrow afternoon with an upper low centered over the Great Smokey Mountains.
512 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Upper trough remains in place over the Pac NW as a western NOAM ridge slowly pushes east. Sfc boundary will waver over the region supporting dry SW flow with warm temps, esp for Tues when many areas around the Badlands could see the lower 100s for highs. Slow moving western CONUS trough will support semi-active flow later in the week with chances for precip at times after Tues. Much cooler conditions are also expected for the second half of the week as the Pac NW upper trough shifts slowly east across the Northern Plains.
Low-level convergence associated with an inverted trough lurking just offshore will continue the development of scattered showers and isolated storms over the Atlantic. Enough onshore flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere is expected to bring some of these onshore, but over the course of night, the onshore flow should weaken, making it more difficult for the showers and storms to make it on land.
1017 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain across eastern Canada and the Northeast overnight. Most high resolution models keep the stratus well to the east of the area since the low level flow is expected to go more northerly in the next few hours. The upper trough over the northeast continues to weaken through Monday night leaving weak flow across the region. And with a blocked pattern set up the closed low over the Tennessee Valley becomes nearly cutoff and drifts over the southeastern states. At the surface across the northeast, the high to the north drifts slowly east.
Otherwise, high pressure moving slowly east of the region should bring quiet weather to most of the area tonight into Monday night. The strong upper trough over the Pacific NW will move newd into srn Canada into Mon AM. This will shift the narrow but high amplitude upper ridge into WI and the wrn Great Lakes for Mon-Mon nt. Milder low temps in the lower to middle 50s are forecast for Mon nt.
614 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Overall little change is expected during the period as upper ridge remains over the forecast area.
Compact upper level closed low centered over northeast Kentucky this evening will slowly drift south/southwest overnight. As this occurs, a low level inverted trough will rotate westward from Pennsylvania. Low level moisture is expected to increase with the low level trough, and with weak lift, clouds will thicken and lower. For the overnight period, there will be a lingering slight chance across the eastern half in association with the inverted trough. Weak surface trof and associated isentropic lift will lead to a slight chance of a shower on Monday.
This afternoon the upper ridge remains overhead from the southern Plains into the the Sunset Region of southwest Ontario. An upper trough was over eastern Washington with another off in the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the forecast area this afternoon with the highest readings from Manhattan westward at 19Z.
714 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. A weakening upper trough departs the Northeast overnight, while a closed upper low over the Ohio Valley tracks southward. This will allow for a large area of high pressure across eastern Canada an the Northeast to build south. The upper trough over the northeast continues to weaken through Monday night leaving weak flow across the region. And with a blocked pattern set up the closed low over the Tennessee Valley becomes nearly cutoff and drifts over the southeastern states. At the surface across the northeast, the high to the north drifts slowly east.
430 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A Pacific cold front has pushed across the forecast area. The main result has been cooler temperatures, because it has remained windy with critical/near critical fire weather thresholds being met this afternoon especially over central and far east zones. Could see some light freezing temperatures over the western valleys mainly the Upper Green River Basin. A warm front pulls north across the forecast area Monday ahead of the next upper low pulling into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures are expected to be warmer, humidity lower and winds still remaining breezy, but not quite as strong as they were today. The cold front associated with this next system is expected to pull into far western Wyoming late Monday night. There looks to be a good shot of precipitation in wake of this cold front.
840 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Conditions have improved over the High Wind Warning area, so have opted to cancel.
The cold front has moved through and significantly diminished any instability. These storms will continue to push eastward northeast as a cold front swings through. Scattered showers have moved through the west half of the state so far today, and these appear associated with warm advection ahead of the low. CAM models agree in developing a line of storms along the cold front that will move east into central North Dakota by mid evening. After this evening, the overnight will see the front move through with cooler and drier air expected. Overnight lows tonight in the lower 50s west to around 70 east.
930 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 High pressure will continue to persist across the lower Great Lakes region through mid-week.
Precipitation and winds aligned well with a cold front and is expected to make its way out of Montana later today. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures will prevail this week as the region will be under a broad upper trough over the Northern Rockies that may hover in place. The trough will keep northeastern Montana wavering between southwesterly flow and subtle perturbations associated with the low.
719 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: High pressure across the southeast keeping the skies mostly clear/sunny.
An upper trough will exit this evening which will bring an end to the isolated showers in central Idaho. A cold front will be accompanied by gusty winds during the afternoon, especially southeast of Boise where it will be windy from Mountain Home to the Western Magic Valley. Temperatures will be warmer ahead of the front.
Upstream is a gyre of low pressure extending from the PacNW to the Aleutians and downstream a strong S. Plains Ridge followed by a closed low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Near stationary high pressure = stretch of fine dry weather.
Expect temperatures to once again drop well into the 30s across a good portion of our interior areas by early morning, with readings remaining just a bit "warmer" near those big waters. Large area of cool Canadian high pressure remains centered from Eastern Canada thru the Great Lakes region this afternoon. High pressure center will shift a bit further east tonight into Monday. but pronounced ridging and dry air thru the column will remain overhead. High temps Monday afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s. High Impact Weather Potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing over the Pacific NW will translate E during the week while embedded jet maxima rotate into S Canada. Amplified ridging also moves over the Great Lakes as a cut-off upper-level low sits over the Carolinas through the short term.
913 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Several disturbances aloft from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic Region will help to amplify an upper level trough over the Appalachian Mountains through Monday, maintaining dry conditions across much of Pennsylvania. An upper low is likely to consolidate and break off from the main trough and jet stream this upcoming work week and drift into the Carolinas. Upper low over OH/KY border late this evening with increasing deep layer moisture from southwest to northeast over PA. Mins should bottom out in the lower to middle 40s north ranging to the lower to middle 50s south. Max temps Monday will vary from the mid 60s across the highest terrain of the Laurels, to the upper 70s throughout the Susq Valley.
/issued 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/ An upper ridge centered over the srn plains continues to dominate the weather across our area. Today, the ridge axis has shifted slightly to our east, allowing the sub-tropical mid-level moisture plume to also bend eastward, extending from south-central NM into the northwest Texas Panhandle. Still, 850mb temps are actually forecast to cool slightly from today, thus highs may be a degree or two cooler - mainly upper 80s to lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. Upper ridge continues to dominate through the forecast period creating an overall dry and hot forecast.
An upper level ridge is holding over the central US while a trough develops in the Pacific Northwest which will impact our weather later this week. After a dry and cool night, dry and mild weather will continue through Monday as the warmer air begins to slowly edge into the CWA. Temps will be a tad warmer but dew points won't change much. Ridging will eventually break down into a large trof across the upper U.
Otherwise, the heat will continue with air temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s for Monday afternoon highs. /Issued 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/ /Monday Night Onward/ Ridging aloft will continue to influence the hot and dry weather across North and Central Texas through the end of the work week. Long range models continue to trend toward the ridge weakening this weekend as an upper level trough moves across the Central Plains.
Quiet pattern prevails across the region this afternoon under weak ridging. Afternoon temperatures are generally 5 to 15 degrees warmer compared to yesterday's readings. Ensembles are in good agreement indicating a trough surging into the PacNW early this week.
659 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are expected this evening, south of Pittsburgh, as a low pressure advances across West Virginia. rainfall this is occurring on the east-northeast quadrant of the upper low, is having a tough time sustaining intensity and moving northward. Most of the large scale ascension is well southwest of the region near the upper low and drier air continues to advect in from the northeast due to the low and mid- level flow. By early tomorrow morning, the low pressure system will drift south, crossing the Tennessee Valley. High pressure is expect to build to our west Monday afternoon; dry, quiet weather will prevail.
Upper trough remains in place over the Pac NW as a western NOAM ridge slowly pushes east. Sfc boundary will waver over the region supporting dry SW flow with warm temps, esp for Tues when many areas around the Badlands could see the lower 100s for highs. Slow moving western CONUS trough will support semi-active flow later in the week with chances for precip at times after Tues. Much cooler conditions are also expected for the second half of the week as the Pac NW upper trough shifts slowly east across the Northern Plains.
The troughing extends to at least 850 mb. Above this level, a southern stream trough is located over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Short Term Update - This semipermanent lower level trough will remain across our area through the overnight. Broad troughing across Keys waters will maintain light mostly east to southeast breezes.