Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures on Monday will reach the mid 70s, to the lower 80s. The period starts of with a trof over the southwest CONUS, ridge over the upper Mississippi valley, and another trof moving into the Pacific NW. The pattern evolution should feature that Pacific NW trof digging into the western CONUS. As that occurs, the upper trof over the southwest begins shearing out to the northeast in pieces.
Monday will be sunny and warm in all areas under an upper level ridge. Thunderstorms are not expected Monday afternoon in south-central Idaho as the upper low causing them this evening moves from southern Nevada to the Four Corners area Monday.
1037 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the eastern US will strengthen through the week as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
Forecast remains on track with E/NE winds around 5- 10 mph overnight before becoming breezy once again tomorrow afternoon due to the high pressure to the north.
628 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Ample isentropic ascent across a warm front slowly moving in from the south sustains showers and thunderstorms across the region for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The warm front is expected to park over I-70 this afternoon.
408 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The dry pattern is coming to an end this evening as the combination of high pressure to the east and a low pressure across west Texas funnels moisture out of the gulf and into Texas and Louisiana.
Looking at the latest guidance and soundings dry air holds on with a high pressure axis remaining over the area. Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 60s as of 2 PM, with some cooler readings across the far east behind the lake breeze.
00Z upper air analysis indicates mid-level ridging building east. As deeper moisture builds in & digging trough over the central/southern Plains helps isentropic ascent to increase tonight, some light rain chances will begin to move in from W to E. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a >1022mb high ridging back along the Gulf coast states from the east. Surface ridging is expected to continue to inhibit convection in east Mississippi through the period. The increase in moisture and associated cloud cover will hold morning lows in our west warmer than normal while our eastern zones dip back into the 50s. Afternoon highs Monday will reach the lower 80s but top out a degree or two cooler than normal thanks to the rain chances and increase in cloud cover.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected early this week before another cool down begins mid-week with unsettled weather returning for the end of the week. The low is currently centered over southeastern California with wrap around moisture continuing. Temperatures are trending a lot warmer over the northern valley with similar temperatures compared to yesterday over the southern areas. As the low moves east tonight activity will diminish. Temperatures will be slightly warmer for most areas with slight cooling over the north end of the valley and surrounding mountains.
748 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure builds into the region with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the week. Expecting a bit more sunshine tomorrow as well, with temperatures climbing the low 70s in most areas.
1031 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the eastern US will strengthen through the week as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
814 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the eastern US will strengthen through the week as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
845 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 An upper level ridge will gradually build over the region tonight through the end of the week resulting in generally dry weather and above normal temperatures.
/issued 238 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ The surface warm front has since passed through the Mid-South and lies just to the north of the KY/TN stateline draped back west through MO. Rain chances for this week continue the downward trend as model guidance and ensembles maintain a building upper ridging across the southeastern CONUS. This will result warmer temperatures and overall limit rain chances.
1011 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 A warm front affects the area first half of the work week, bringing rain chances back to parts of the area starting Monday. High pressure and a notable warming trend start mid-week. Opted to increase cloud coverage for this evening into the overnight period as the warm front propagates further northward. Partly could skies should allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s for the lowlands, while the mountains dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Warm front currently situated to the southwest of the area will gradually lift northward through the overnight, bringing with it an increasing threat for showers near dawn Monday across the far southern areas. Primarily diurnally driven showers/thundershowers are expected in the short term period with coverage tied to a weakening elevated warm front.
933 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Latest surface analysis shows a center of high pressure over Savannah, GA, which is keeping the area sunny and dry. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the west-central Atlantic continues to move further offshore. Upper ridging pushes into the Southeast from the Plains, which will be the main story for the near term period and beyond. Ridge starts building on Monday, so expect more sunshine and high temperatures tick up a little bit more to near 80, with mid-to-upper 70s possible near the beaches.
743 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure remains over the Eastern USA the next few days, providing mainly fair warm weather.
747 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 A warm front affects the area first half of the work week, bringing rain chances back to parts of the area starting Monday. High pressure and a notable warming trend start mid-week. Opted to increase cloud coverage for this evening into the overnight period as the warm front propagates further northward. Partly could skies should allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s for the lowlands, while the mountains dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Warm front currently situated to the southwest of the area will gradually lift northward through the overnight, bringing with it an increasing threat for showers near dawn Monday across the far southern areas. Primarily diurnally driven showers/thundershowers are expected in the short term period with coverage tied to a weakening elevated warm front.
Unseasonably warm weather will continue across the Great Falls CWA today as deep southwesterly flow continues to advect warmer air into the area today. The weather begins to turn unsettled tomorrow as an upper level low begins to move into the PacNW. As this upper level low moves in, a weak low pressure system will move across Southern British Columbia and Alberta, which will cause a cold front to swing through our area, sweeping away the recent warm air mass that we've had the past few days and replacing it with noticeably cooler air.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 60s across most of the CWA as of 3 AM.
The thunderstorms that develop along the high plains this evening will probably weaken as they move into central KS. However, a southern stream upper level trough will be lifting northeast out of NM and across west TX on Tuesday.
High pressure and relatively low pwats should result in fair weather and light winds today. Max temps trend a few to several degrees (anywhere from +1-2 to as much as +10F) warmer than yesterday with highs in the 65-75F range or within a few degrees either side of mid-May climo.
After getting a bit warmer today with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations, temperatures have only fallen off into the mid to upper 60s. Mid to high level cloud cover and these warmer afternoon temperatures are helping to keep temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. With dewpoints from Vinemont to Fort Payne still in the 50 to 55 degree range, think cool spots will again be in those areas dropping into the lower 50s in those areas. Could even see some lows in the lower 60s near the AL/MS border.
1028 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 19z surface analysis had weak high over northwest half of CWA with weak trough from the central plains into the Black Hills. Water vapour had northern stream energy shearing out over the northern plains and upper low spinning over southwest NV. Monday/Tuesday, upper low will slowly move northeast into weakening upper trough over the plains as upper trough deepens over the northwest CONUS.
scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into central Indiana over the last few hours ahead of the warm front to the southwest. the current showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift northeastward this morning as the warm front stalls over southwest Indiana. So, will only trend toward uppe 60s across the northern counties, while the southern counties could climb into the upper 70s south of the warm front. Tonight, temperatures will remain balmy in the 50s, and daytime highs tomorrow will top off in the low 70s with little change in the pattern.
A second and likely more severe round of storms will form after 06Z/Tue as a strong low-level jet increases convergence/mstr across the PB ahead of an mid/upper level low in NM. However, there will likely be another active period of severe wx Fri-Mon or so as backed sw aloft ahead a mid-level trough across the Great Basin favors warm and moisture conditions with the dryline in a far wwd location, and occasional shrtwv trofs.
Warm front was located just north of the CWA early this afternoon and we've seen temperatures rise into the mid to upper 70s so far with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Amplified high pressure aloft will build over the eastern U.
141 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures will warm during the week as the center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Latest surface analysis shows a center of high pressure over Savannah, GA, which is keeping the area sunny and dry. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the west-central Atlantic continues to move further offshore. Upper ridging pushes into the Southeast from the Plains, which will be the main story for the near term period and beyond. Ridge starts building on Monday, so expect more sunshine and high temperatures tick up a little bit more to near 80, with mid-to-upper 70s possible near the beaches.
The dry airmass combined with the lack of any significant lifting mechanism is expected to result in dry conditions with afternoon highs mostly in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s.
1148 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Tonight may be fairly uneventful with weak s/wv ridging moving across the area. The warm front across the region is fairly inactive given the lack of overall support.
High pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep mostly easterly to southeasterly flow over the area. Upper level ridging nosing in from the south will cause temperatures to continue to warm, with high temperatures on Monday forecast in the mid to upper 80s, but dry conditions will keep apparent temperatures closer to the mid 80s. High temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday, with low temperatures warming slightly into the low to mid 60s as moisture slowly returns to the area.
306 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure remains over the Eastern USA most of the week, then shifts southwest by the weekend. That supports max sfc temps of 75-80, cooler along the coast.
At the sfc, high pressure continued to dominate the eastern states, with a ridge axis continuing to extend back through the Great Lakes. The action in the nrn stream gets pushed further north into Canada, as upper ridging strengthens in srn Canada/Great Lakes region. High temperatures today will largely be in the mid and upper 70s, cooler near the lakeshores. Folded over omega type ridge moves across the region through the day Tuesday.
At the surface models show a warm front lifting northward into Kansas which could become the focus for afternoon storms, however this will be predicated on convective outflow effects from Monday night's activity.
A ridge will arrive Tuesday, with dry and warmer weather by afternoon.
204 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure over the eastern US will strengthen through the week as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
314 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 After a few more showers today, high pressure will dominate the region through the week with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Weak high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast today will keep the overall pattern quiet. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower to mid 70s this afternoon as a stronger ridge of high pressure builds in from the west tonight and tomorrow. The upper ridge axis moves overhead on Tuesday which will allow for large scale subsidence across the entire area.
311 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Low pressure remains in place across western Kansas with a warm front extending eastward across Missouri and into Illinois. Low level flow will continue to increase this evening as the low level jet ramps up, with the core of the jet centered east of the Mississippi. This will keep at least scattered showers in the forecast through the night, with the highest chances across Illinois. BSH The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the week, with the upper ridge across the eastern US expanding and retrograding. Despite this, the lowest levels of the atmosphere are more saturated and prone to IFR development.
/issued 408 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ The dry pattern is coming to an end this evening as the combination of high pressure to the east and a low pressure across west Texas funnels moisture out of the gulf and into Texas and Louisiana.
An upper low moving across the Desert Southwest will keep unsettled weather over Utah and southwest Wyoming into Tuesday.
This configuration ensures dry weather for SE MI between a front in northern Ontario and a low pressure center and warm front from MO into the Ohio valley. The cloud pattern combines with slightly more SE surface wind to cap temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, just a few degrees above normal for mid May.
An upper level ridge will then build into the Ohio Valley and Midwest regions and persist through the weekend.
and Tuesday Much warmer weather and becoming more unsettled to begin the work week. High temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s to perhaps even some low 80s, except cooler along the Lake Michigan shoreline! For reference, average high temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s for this time of year. Temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 70s central and east-central to the upper 70s to around 80 closer to the U. Locations along the shoreline may struggle to get out of the low 60s with more of an easterly wind.
Weak WAA continues across the Western Great Lakes region this afternoon well in advance of low pressure developing over the Central Plains. Associated warm front extends eastward from the low thru the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Plenty of low/mid moisture/clouds continue to stream into Michigan well north of the warm front. Stronger northern stream flow will continue to drive upper-level ridging across the northern half of the CONUS. During this time frame, closed upper-level low pressure anchored across the Four Corners region will gradually begin to press to press into the central plains by midweek.
/issued 223 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ An upper low/trough is centered over Southern California and Nevada with west winds aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. The upper trough moves over the Four Corners region on Monday and a dryline will remain present across West Texas. More storms are expected to develop along the dryline as the upper low moves closer to the region Monday night. Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 80s as the upper trough begins to move over the region.
1053 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Ample isentropic ascent across a warm front slowly moving in from the south sustains showers and thunderstorms across the region for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The warm front is expected to park over I-70 this afternoon. A strong ridge builds in the eastern CONUS reorienting generally zonal flow to more south to north.
Much warmer air arrives mid to late week with highs in the 80s. Focus will be on surge of better moisture and more pronounced warm front that will edge towards the southern Great Lakes during the upcoming period. A series of disturbances will keep the warm front moving back and forth for the start of the period. Upper level ridging will begin to build in Weds and grab hold Thurs into the weekend pushing any meaningful pops to our west and north. Warm front from southern Missouri eastward into southwest Indiana early this morning. As low level jet over mid Mississippi Valley strengthens overnight, warm front to accelerate northward with lowering ceilings and light rain, primarily south of US 30.
A strong upper level ridge will bring much warmer and dry weather late week through the weekend. With UA analysis still showing anticyclones at 925 mb and 850 mb over the region, there is little to no opportunity for moisture return into the area (other than the outside chance at a few low clouds sneaking into our far NE sections overnight, due to weak low level NE onshore flow). Heights aloft will slowly rise across the region as an amplifying short wave ridge currently over the MS valley builds east into the eastern US. At the surface, a warm front or thermal moisture boundary(TMB)looks to set up near the SC-NC state line late tonight and Monday. The big story during this part of the forecast will be the building ridge at upper levels through the forecast.
Drier and warmer weather will evolve by midweek and beyond, with above normal temperatures and only low chances for daily precipitation. Clouds will thicken and lower during the overnight hours in advance of a developing/sharpening warm front. This may leave the southern and northern edges of the local area more on the fringe of clouds/pcpn, allowing for temps to reach into the lower 70s for parts of northern west-central and northern central Ohio as well as parts of northern KY.
240 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 (Issued 240 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021) Today and Tonight: Lingering surface/850 ridging should keep the showers to our south this period.
High pressure with mainly dry conditions and a notable warming trend start mid-week. An elevated warm front, associated theta-e advection and synoptic ascent associated with the right rear quadrant of a departing 100KT H250 jet core will yield a fairly narrow swath of mainly light rainfall roughly oriented WNW-ESE early this morning into the afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will begin building into the area.
1251 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure builds into the region with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the week. Expecting a bit more sunshine tomorrow as well, with temperatures climbing the low 70s in most areas.
An upper level low will continue to slowly trek eastward across the Desert Southwest today and into the Four Corners region tonight with upper level divergence above western Kansas through the short term.
330 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Dry today into Tuesday morning - Chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon through much of week - Warming trend is still on track - Dry today into Tuesday morning A warm front will remain situated off to the south of the state of Michigan both today and tonight with weak ridging extending into the area from the southeast. Lows tonight dip back into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
/issued 238 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ The surface warm front has since passed through the Mid-South and lies just to the north of the KY/TN state line draped back west through MO. Rain chances for this week continue the downward trend as model guidance and ensembles maintain a building upper ridging across the southeastern CONUS. This will result warmer temperatures and overall limit rain chances. Rain will still impact the Mid- South on Monday but the higher chances during the afternoon and evening and possibly continuing overnight into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, it appears upper ridging will influence the weather despite, the deepening closed low over the Southwest CONUS. Ridging will keep upper level energy to our west and we will more than likely be dry through much of the week with a warming temperature trend.
This trough will slowly move east tonight and cross AR through the day on Monday with precipitation moving into western sections by this evening and into central/eastern sections overnight. By tomorrow night into Tuesday, a more substantial mid/upper level low presently over the southwestern CONUS will eject into the southern Plains with more large-scale ascent overspreading the area.
ridging with time, and this influence shows up even in the short term portion of the forecast. Best pops/qpf will be tied to the frontal (and meso) boundaries, and buoyed by any potential low pressure circulations, surface or aloft, in nearby vicinity.
Upper level ridging will gradually build across the FL peninsula and into portions of AL/GA during the day Tuesday, while southwesterly flow aloft continues across southeast MS well to the west of this building ridge. Highs Monday are forecast to range in the lower to mid 80s over most areas. Lows Monday night should average in the lower to mid 60s inland and in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees along the immediate coast. Warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s inland and lower 80s along the coast are anticipated Tuesday.
A more robust cold front looks to arrive early Tuesday with much cooler temperatures for the middle to end of the week. Our approaching cold front and upper level trough system will move into the PacNW overnight into Tuesday. The overall trend looks cooler and much better chances of valley rain and mountain rain/snow showers with this cooler airmass for the week ahead.
The main weather feature through Monday night will be the closed upper low currently centered over southern Nevada. The highest POPS for 40 to 50 percent across southwest NE, to only a slight chance northern NE. Monday night, the closed upper low will move into CO and NM, with a disturbance lifting from northwest KS into southwest NE. The closed upper low will slowly northward Tuesday through Tuesday night while the disturbance to its east brings the best POPS to western NE on Tuesday.
Differential anticyclonic vorticity advection with confluence aloft will lead to synoptic forcing conducive for ridging across Southeast Michigan Monday. A midlevel high pressure center is shown to push eastward on Tuesday which will allow blocked moisture over the mid Mississippi River Valley to rebound and lift northward.
High temperatures today will be slightly cooler side given lingering rain and cloud cover, topping out around 70 to the mid 70s. Overnight lows tonight will also remain mild in the low 60s. An amplified upper level pattern will develop, with a ridge building over the eastern CONUS and a deep trough over the far western CONUS.
347 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Slow moving mid level trough and preceding corridor of enhanced low level winds have maintained scattered showers and isolated storms from NE OK through western AR.
129 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. Previous Discussion: Temperatures are about 2-4F warmer than this time last night, and with a similar synoptic setup, and no more than a few cirrus overhead, temperatures tonight will end up a few degrees "warmer" than last night.