Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In this area, we have a cold front and closed upper level low pressure approaching the area providing support for convection. Scattered showers and storms will linger late tonight and tomorrow as the low pressure system slowly moves through the region. It looks like high pressure will build over the East Coast, slowing the low pressure system down.
Cooler, drier and more stable air was in the process of filtering into SW Kansas at midday, behind this morning's initial cold front.
Ridging builds into the forecast area during the coming week. Rising 500mb heights as mid-level ridging develops over the forecast area. Seasonal temperatures continue with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
They should scatter out as usual prior to midday Sunday, and a slightly warmer day will be in store with highs forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. A seasonally anomalous trough will be digging southward through the central-eastern CONUS, and will attempt to send a cold front our way by Sunday evening.
The timing of a cold front is also expected to be located near southern sections or just south of the CWA by mid- afternoon. A few stronger storms may still form in the vicinity of the upper low during the afternoon, and should gradually weaken during the evening hours. With the most widespread convection anticipated to remain south of the area, and the progressive nature of convection near the upper low, the overall flash flooding threat appears to be lesser today. Rain chances continue into Sunday as the upper low makes its slow movement eastward. MVFR and IFR ceilings will move in from the northeast tonight around 05Z as the upper level low moves through the region.
High resolution models continue to be in good agreement with the setup of a rim shot event off of the higher terrain beginning after 23 UTC this afternoon. Today, based on latest CAMs, has the look for a classic rim shot event with scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms propagating SW off the higher terrain late this afternoon into this evening. Most times the area will have a down day after a big event, however with the upper high near Las Vegas on Sunday and N/NE flow over the area, will see another round of storms propagate off the higher terrain. Today is shaping up to be a classic rim shot event with scattered thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain and propagating to the southwest.
This decrease is in response to the 500 mb inverted trough/closed low moving west of the region allowing drier air to move back in place over the RGV. The KBRO radar trends tend to support this showing most of the conv development over the region being limited to the lower TX coastal regions and over the Gulf waters moving quickly northwards.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper ridge centered over Srn NV this morning with a low over MN. As a trough extending from the low moves south across the plains today and Sunday it will trim off the east side of the ridge.
136 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and southern U. up into the Canadian Rockies with troughing across the Great Lakes region into New England.
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Quiet weather will continue through this evening under high pressure. A few strong thunderstorms could occur tomorrow with an approaching warm front. High to mid level clouds will continue to increase across our region as a low pressure system advances through the Midwest. A few isolated showers may return after midnight ahead an approaching warm front. Confidence builds for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as the warm front (mentioned above) approaches from the south.
Right now it appears the highest shower chances on Sunday will be over parts of northeast IA into southwest WI, but will have to continue to fine-tune the details of this forecast. Highs on Sunday could reach the upper 70s to low 80s for areas less impacted by lower clouds/showers to the west and north, while locations farther southeast remain cooler. The upper level low currently taking shape over the Missouri River Valley will only have drifted into the mid-Mississippi River Valley by Sunday night.
500 hPa ridging and high pressure at the surface will result in dry conditions Sunday.
149 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 An upper level ridge will result in tranquil weather through Sunday morning.
Mid- to upper speed shear on the lower side in the 25-35 kt range, that combined with less than ideal diabatic forcing north of I-80 keeping storms marginally severe. The better chances of stronger storms will occur from far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa which will be on the cyclonic shear side of upper low.
Deep southerly flow establishes itself tonight around stacked high pressure offshore. Lows Sunday morning in the low 70s. Maintained slight pops along the coast early Sunday morning due to weak impulses aloft from the south around ridge and increased moisture advection. Rain chances diminish for Sunday night with lows again in the low 70s. Mid to upper ridge amplifies up the east coast into midweek before getting suppressed farther south just off the Southeast coast and weakening slightly into the weekend. Shwr activity should remain limited through midweek, mainly localized along sea breeze and further inland along Piedmont trough. This is the result of the inland expansion of the mid/upper level ridge from off the Atlantic. Deep southerly flow continues tonight through Sunday night around offshore high pressure.
An upper level trough will remain west of the region through the week continuing the chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Rising 500mb heights as mid-level ridging develops over the forecast area. Seasonal temperatures continue with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s. Upper level trough will remain over the central US through the short term with upper level ridging building over the eastern seaboard. At the surface the Bermuda high will keep southerly flow over the area as low pressure remains quasi stationary over the mid MS River Valley.
Also, the flow at 500 mb is quite diffluent, so we in Middle Tennessee will experience plenty of lift this evening and overnight as the upper trough amplifies to our west.
Strongest storms should move south of the area this evening although some scattered storms will remain possible with an upper level low moving through the area.
Rain chances will be 50-70 percent area wide this afternoon, with the highest coverage being across the interior. Afternoon highs will once again be in the upper 80s and low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
345 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and southern U. up into the Canadian Rockies with troughing across the Great Lakes region into New England. The transition of the system over the Central Plains is still expected to pinch out a closed low and become nearly vertically stacked in the short term. From there, these features are still expected to slowly lift northward given the blocking ridge extending out of the Atlantic into the East Coast/eastern Great Lakes.
Currently, upper level trough continues to push off to the southeast, while an upper level ridge builds in from the west. Upper level ridge axis will continue to move into the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow, resulting in a mostly clear sky over the next 24-36 hours. Will see near critical fire weather Sunday afternoon across the west, with min RH values falling into the lower 20s coupled with a steady southerly wind of 10 to 15 knots. Ridge is flattened Sunday night by an incoming S/WV.
Early this afternoon, a moisture-gradient at 850mb is attempting to spark a few rain showers ahead of a slow-moving warm front positioned from central IL, southeast to southern IN. Otherwise tonight, rain is expected to blossom on the leading edge of a low-level jet wrapping around the northeast side of the low.
Sunday should be a few degrees warmer, with 850mb temperatures also a few degrees warmer, and south-southwest winds picking up a little more.
The mid-level ridge will continue to build tonight into tomorrow morning before eventually beginning to erode tomorrow afternoon as a trough approaches South Texas.
1106 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA sees a northwesterly flow aloft as it remains underneath the backside of a positively tilted upper air trough in the northern Plains area with an upper air ridge over the western CONUS.
1029 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Still dealing with strong theta-e ridging at the 700mb level across portions of the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas into Central and East Central Louisiana this morning that is serving as a mid-level forcing mechanism for the development of widely scattered convection attm.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 70 86 70 / 30 60 50 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 68 87 70 / 20 60 50 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 69 86 68 / 30 60 50 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 88 67 87 67 / 40 60 40 40 20.
Sunday Night Through Saturday The upper low over the Midwest will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms as it lifts slowly north before getting picked up by an approaching trough near the United States Canada border.
MVFR conditions will return late tonight into Sunday behind the cold front responsible for the storms. /Issued 1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021/ At mid-morning, a cold front extended from southeast Nebraska to southwest Kansas with an outflow boundary from southwest Missouri into southeast Kansas.
A ridge of high pressure will peak in intensity over the Northern Rockies today. The wind, combined with the high temperatures and very low humidity, will create critical fire weather conditions across west-central and southwest Montana.
1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 The upper trof and associated cool pool aloft are moving through the region and helping to fuel showers and thunderstorms mainly up near Highway 20 from Valentine to O'Neill, while western Nebraska towards the panhandle is remaining generally dry. While widespread severe storms are not expected today, one or two may be capable of generating large hail and producing isolated wind damage especially out near the Highway 281 corridor. The low level wind field remains amplified and with good downward momentum transfer evident on model soundings expect breezy conditions will be prevalent into this evening. Upper level ridging briefly builds in the first of the week in the wake of the low.
237 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Colorado will be caught between a closed low over Iowa and a high centered over Nevada. Last night, a cold front ushered in cooler air with highs this afternoon in the 80s. Any clouds that form Sunday should be confined over the higher terrain.
-Warm and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms with greatest coverage in the afternoon hours -Isolated damaging winds possible with any stronger storms along with heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding We remain in a relatively stagnant pattern between an upper low sinking southward over the Mississippi Valley and a building upper ridge to our east.
1135 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Broad upper troughing persists from the Northern Plains across the Great Lakes to New England. Chances will continue to spread northeast through the day as the parent longwave trough drops in and deepens over the Upper Midwest, transitioning into a closed low this afternoon. 25") focused along and west of the Mississippi River with dewpoints there generally in the low to mid 60s. Early Sunday morning a spoke of energy rotating around this low will lift in from the southeast, bringing renewed shower chances mainly to our far south/east counties.
It took a little while longer than previously though to overcome the drier air in the lower levels (850-700 mb). Meanwhile, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is located near the southeastern Bahamas.
1114 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and southeast of the region, with weak high pressure to the northwest of the area. Much of the energy with the upper trough has shifted east and southeast of the forecast area, but a couple of areas of showers and thunderstorms still exist across western into south central SD, including a strong storm over southern Harding into Butte counties. Cooler wx will be in place for the first half of the weekend as the trough only slowly moves southeast from the Northern Plains into the mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.
Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than the very recent past, closer to normal for this time of year. Highs tomorrow will be fairly similar to today, with perhaps some locations a few degrees warmer.
236 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Isolated showers on the plains to the east and southeast of the Black Hills will end later this afternoon as the upper low continues to move off to the east and drier air moves into the forecast area.
346 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Quiet weather will continue through this evening under high pressure. A few strong thunderstorms could occur tomorrow with an approaching warm front. Do not expect this to push too far to the north and east given high pressure and the dry air in place across much of the area, but some isolated sprinkles/light rain showers are possible in eastern Ohio and portions of West Virginia. A few isolated showers may return after midnight ahead an approaching warm front. Confidence builds for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as the warm front (mentioned above) approaches from the south.
High temperatures today and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the Lows in the low to mid 70s. Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon with the highest PoPs (50%) in our GA counties.
Tonight through Sunday, an upper level trough over the Southeast helping to create today's convection will shift west as an upper level ridge over the East Coast builds west over the Southeast. Tonight temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low to mid 70s inland, mid to upper 70s along the coast, on the high side of seasonal norms for the date.
1131 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Cold front moved through southeast Wyoming last night and is currently located across northern Colorado this morning. Pretty uneventful day weather wise today as high pressure remains in control of the weather. Warmer temperatures return Sunday with 700mb temperatures warming by 5-6C.
/issued 1029 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021/ Still dealing with strong theta-e ridging at the 700mb level across portions of the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas into Central and East Central Louisiana this morning that is serving as a mid-level forcing mechanism for the development of widely scattered convection attm.
Climatologically hot weather continues for much of the interior as upper-level ridging continues to amplify through the weekend. The inversion touching into the ridges of Lake and southeastern Mendocino is resulting in minimum overnight temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s.
503 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Isolated showers on the plains to the east and southeast of the Black Hills will end later this afternoon as the upper low continues to move off to the east and drier air moves into the forecast area.
534 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Isolated showers on the plains to the east and southeast of the Black Hills will end later this afternoon as the upper low continues to move off to the east and drier air moves into the forecast area.
An upper level trough will remain west of the region through the week continuing the chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Seasonal temperatures continue with the overnight min temps in the low to mid 70s. Upper level trough will remain over the central US through the short term with upper level ridging building over the eastern seaboard. At the surface the Bermuda high will keep southerly flow over the area as low pressure remains quasi stationary over the mid MS River Valley.
Satellite depicts a busy pattern across the area for July, as the upper ridge holds over the Great Basin and a longwave trof drops southward into the central US. Surface front associated with this trof is a bit diffuse in observation data, but radar and satellite suggest the boundary has moved into the far southern CWA. Next piece of energy rotates into the state from the north this afternoon and into the evening hours, bringing with it cooler temperatures aloft, boosting instability and CAPE, and bringing another round of storms into the area as already evident in eastern Nebraska. Some showers may linger into the overnight hours as the cold pool and upper trof axis moves overhead, but otherwise Sunday is shaping up to be on the cool side of normal with highs in the 70s and northerly winds through the day.
825 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Quiet weather will continue through this evening under high pressure. A few strong thunderstorms could occur tomorrow with an approaching warm front. Overnight, increasing southwest flow ahead of a trough digging over the Midwest/Mississippi Valley will start to push a warm front northward. Confidence builds for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as the warm front (mentioned above) approaches from the south.
By Mon morning upper trough will extend from eastern IA through the Ozark region with subsidence across the forecast area. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 90s. A mid/upper trough over the Central Plains will continue to dig southward overnight with some MVFR cigs developing across the area after 08-10Z. This lower cigs will linger into the morning hours with some showers also possible under the mid/upper trough across mainly southeast Kansas.
Have been hesitant to remove counties from the severe thunderstorm watch, as moderately strong instability persists north of the primary convective band and south of the approaching cold front.
A cold front will work its way from north to south across the state through the period.
Additionally, the surface reflection of the short wave is pushing a cold front south through the eastern Plains, and this front will eventually dam up the most unstable air across the Lower Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning.
There are a few remnant showers left across the southeastern CWA this afternoon as the upper low slowly rotates out of the northern plains. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Sunday as an upper ridge noses in from the desert southwest, extending from Las Vegas to northeastern ND.
434 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 An upper level ridge will result in tranquil weather through Sunday morning.
Activity should diminish and head into the lower deserts this evening, with clearing skies from the north.
No changes to temp forecast with lows in the low to mid 70s.
The mid-level ridge will continue to build tonight into tomorrow morning before eventually beginning to erode tomorrow afternoon as a trough approaches South Texas. With the rain chances diminishing and the sun coming back out, temperatures are expected to begin to warm back up as highs Monday are expected to climb into the lower 90s near the coast to the upper 90s across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
Drier conditions expected today as ridging aloft ushers drier mid/upper levels across S TX from the north, which is evident on Water Vapor Satellite. With drier conditions, max temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today and Monday, but still slightly below normal. A weak mid/upper trough is progged to move west across the area late tonight into Monday.
341 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Satellite early this morning shows the upper low swinging through the MS River Valley with wrap-around cloud cover and a few showers moving south into our area from NE. With another upper ridge off the eastern seaboard, our trough will be slow to move east today allowing for scattered wrap-around showers across the area through the day. Temperatures will be seasonally cool as northerly winds usher in cooler air, with highs in the 70s for most. Central KS has the best chance of reaching the low 80s as earlier clearing should allow for more insolation. The upper trough slowly pushes further east on Monday, although we will still be under its influence to an extent as northerly winds keep temperatures somewhat on the cooler side.
For Monday, the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms looks to be mostly along/east of the Mississippi River just downstream of the mid/upper level low. Well- below normal temperatures are also forecast to continue on Monday, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
1113 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 After a quiet night tonight, A warm front will drift slowly north into the state on Sunday, ushering in higher humidity and hotter temperatures.
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 A warm front will lift north through the area through this evening. Thereafter, Bermuda high pressure system will build through the first half of the week before it starts weakening during the second half. A cold front will approach the area at the end of the week. Scattered showers are expected through mid-morning mainly west of I-95 in warm moist advection pattern, then likely a brief lull late morning into early afternoon, before additional showers and t-storms develop as warm front lifts through the area. Activity should wane quickly after 00Z tonight as warm front lifts north into PA and forcing and instability wane. Even less convective cvrg is anticipated Tue as 500 mb ridge reaches maximum amplitude across the local area.
Cold front currently pushing south of I-44 with a few isolated showers skirting far northwest Arkansas. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible today as upper low briefly stalls over Missouri. Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions expected today into Monday as weak high pressure at the surface builds over the region.
Rain has temporarily ended for much of the rest of central Indiana but scattered to numerous storms will move back in later today as the upper low continues to sit west of the area, pulling in the moist Gulf airmass. Daytime heating will help to provide additional instability and highest PoPs during the afternoon hours today and tomorrow Mild but humid temperatures will continue as highs today and tomorrow will remain near 80 while the higher moisture will keep lows only dipping down to the upper 60s. The heaviest moisture axis will be to the east of central Indiana by Monday evening as the stagnant upper closed low finally weakens a bit and shifts northeastward. Nonetheless, remnant forcing from the low will necessitate shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday night.
Strongest storms should move south of the area this evening although some scattered storms will remain possible with an upper level low moving through the area. Monday: The upper low/trough axis will remain over the area Monday with cool weather.
Strong high pressure aloft will remain situated to our south as dry westerly flow aloft continues over our area through Sunday. Temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above normal each day, with high pressure parked to our south and dry westerly flow aloft over the region.
304 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Impacts are for Monday afternoon (and evening) when a few thunderstorms are possible along an eastward moving trough. Monday will see a 500 mb short wave trough move east from Saskatchewan and Montana east into Manitob and then eastern ND by 00z Tue. Forcing with this short wave trough isnt great, but temps of upper 80s/low 90s and dew pts near 60 along the trough will create MUCAPE values 1000-1500 j/kg into DVL basin mid aftn and into the nrn RRV Monday evening. As been the case with most of our events this summer, expect a period of scattered t-storms along the trough developing in the DVL basin mid aftn Monday and moving east into the northern RRV and far NW MN early Mon evening.