Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE WRN ATLC AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
1231 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING A COLD FRONT NEARING WESTERN OHIO. TAX LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR MONTREAL MONDAY EVENING. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH WITH A EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND DROP TOWARDS THE NEW YORK- PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
259 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THE HIGH IS FAIRLY BROAD AND CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT WARMER THIS MORNING THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING.
350 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO POUR INTO NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW MONDAY EVENING.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WELL THE LOW STRATUS ISN'T MATERIALIZING TO OUR WEST AS EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE LOW CIGS AND WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2500 FT MONDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 850 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ST.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BURST OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME BANDED STRUCTURE TO THE SNOW. BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE QUITE A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BORDERLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH.
256 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016 Quiet mild weather today as weak high pressure moves across the area.
HIGH VALUES FOR 500MB HEIGHTS MEANS THAT THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE.
mostly clear skies and drier air moving into the region behind the front will lead to a much cooler night tonight compared to last night. It will continue to move slowly through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, with the movement of the low cloud deck in advance of the boundary mirroring the front's progress. Widespread thunderstorms, with some severe hail and wind potential, are still expected as the low level jet increases toward midnight tomorrow night and as a stronger cold front pushes through the region. The cold front will quickly sweep through the area by Tuesday afternoon, with the entire forecast area dry by the evening at the latest.
PACIFIC WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AN INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. VIGOROUSLY MOIST COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE FOG SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN TRANSITION TO RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1000-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
1232 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
1146 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO IOWA THIS EVENING BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS TO THE STATE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY AS WELL WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE KEPT GENERAL TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPS COOL AND WARM LAYER REMAINS AT MID LEVELS.
350 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHEAST. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A GOOD NIGHT FOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THEN SHOWERS. MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ANTICIPATED. ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS THROUGH 18Z TODAY WITH NUMBER CLOSER TO THE WETTER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND OVER TO THE CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
326 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
1152 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO DOUBTS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. /ISSUED 405 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY MAY INDUCE A WEAK SEA BREEZE AS DAYTIME TEMPS GET INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR DECENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE COAST.
RIDGING OVER THE WEST HAS BEEN TAKING A TOLL ON THE PAST FEW WAVES AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WARMER. WHILE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESIDE IN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. STOUT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY. AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH COOLER/NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES. A CLEARING TREND INTO TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE. AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER RACES ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. WITH SUBFREEZING VALUES CONFINED TO THE NORTH. CL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR MONTREAL MONDAY EVENING. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH WITH A EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND DROP TOWARDS THE NEW YORK- PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LEADING UPPER FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA, WHILE A SECOND FRONT (SURFACE COLD FRONT) IS NOW MOVING INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN. HAD ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY EARLIER FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN IN WASHINGTON WHERE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY STRONG (DOWN SLOPE OFF MOUNTAINS AND WITH SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE). THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 933 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/ FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ONGOING FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS ALIGNED WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND ADVECTION OF COLDER/DRIER AIR ALOFT ENSUES.
336 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
147 AM MST MON FEB 29 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FURTHER WEST A TROUGH WAS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS WAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SO WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR LOWS THAN MOST MODEL DATA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST.
An upper trough was approaching the MS Valley, and has dropped a cold front into the region. The main differences in this forecast from 24 hrs ago is that models are trending slightly cooler the last couple of runs, w/today's front slightly cooler/stronger than yesterday's depiction. Even so, temps will recover nicely Monday as a secondary trough approaches the area. The upper trough is forecast to be near the 4 Corners at 00Z Tuesday. The upper trough will pass thru the region Monday night/Tuesday, dropping a secondary cold front into the FA.
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN PRODUCING A BAND OF RAIN. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET OVERHEAD PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVEING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER BY 12Z THEN ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT ITSELF COMES THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MULTI SEGMENTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. SECONDARY AND STRONGER PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SYSTEM THEN MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
A LINGERING RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. SPARSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND SUNSHINE FILTERED BY THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
359 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016 POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES.
GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE QUITE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A QUASI- STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE-WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR.
1045 PM MST SUN FEB 28 2016 UPDATED AVIATION INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS OF 06Z WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH INTO AREAS ALONG THE HI-LINE INCLUDING KHVR WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN MONTANA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE. AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER RACES ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. WITH SUBFREEZING VALUES CONFINED TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
951 PM PST SUN FEB 28 2016 A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, evening showers, and snow to the mountains. Cold front has pushed east of the region early this evening with winds beginning to decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Weak high pressure builds in tomorrow for flat cumulus over the area as well as increasing mid and high clouds from the west in the afternoon and evening ahead of the next system.
The weak cold front that moved through the area is expected to stall near or just south of the Interstate 10 corridor tonight. /issued 338 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front this afternoon is located near a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
/ISSUED 851 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/ TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX AND HAVE TWEAKED LATE EVENING TEMPS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS.
326 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE FCST AREA AT 09Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN OVER ERN ND TUESDAY. SOME TEMP MODERATION DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER IN MANY AREAS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO LEANED TOWARD A BIT WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 20S.
A LESSER FOCUS IS ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS CHALLENGED. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TIED TO THE BEST FORCING. SYSTEM QUICKLY PUSHES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE NEB. AND WARMER AIR SURGES IN FROM THE SW. RIDGE EXPANDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
1247 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE SNOW SHOWERS.
At least a limited severe weather threat will continue across Northwest Arkansas/Southeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning before convective line/cold front sweeps east of the region around mid day.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s from near Dodge City and south with the best warm air advection, and around 70 north. Light and variable winds early become north to northwesterly and increase to 25 to 35 mph as a cold front advances across southwest Kansas after midnight.
EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME RATHER COMPACT AND AT THIS TIME IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE PACNW AREA. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING NE MONTANA FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. GIVEN THE RECENT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE 70S. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND THE HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THE SAME. OTHERWISE WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD HOWEVER WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FA AND CLOUDS A FACTOR AGAIN TODAY. AM EXPECTING ONLY A MODEST RECOVERY BUT STILL SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER. LACK OF DEEPER LAYERED RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE ON PCPN POTENTIAL FRIDAY CONTINUES ON THE LOW SIDE SO DID NOT INCREASE POPS. ANY PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIQUID.
351 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA BY EVENING.
At 12z Thursday a 500mb trough was located along the coast of the Pacific Northwest and an upper level ridge axis extended from Texas to North Dakota. Most of the temperature grid looked on track, however, some of the models aren't mixing out the eastern zones, which may explain the lower values. A cold front will move across the region with much cooler 850-hPa temperatures in its wake.
1158 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION AND JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY.
1247 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH AND BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
1154 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 A strengthening storm over the Pacific Northwest will move further onshore today, which will continue to push a mid-level ridge over the Central Plains. The main concern for today and Friday is fire weather danger as a very strong low-level jet develops underneath the ridge from central Texas spreading northeast into the forecast area this morning. A cold front will sweep through the area beginning Friday morning.
125 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS NEVADA WILL RACE EASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. MOST CONCERNING WITH THIS COLD FRONT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION IN COMBINATION WITH THE H850 TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF -16C/6HR BETWEEN THE 06 AND 12Z TIMEFRAME.
330 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY. WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE EVENING COULD KEEP SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS DUJ AND VICINITY. BUT THINK THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS MINIMAL.
902 AM PST THU FEB 18 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. ALOFT WE ARE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
325 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PLAINS WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE PORTIONS OF CWA FROM THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. EVEN THOUGH WE SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
AS RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD. AND LIGHTER WINDS/COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER.
305 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
342 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS IT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE REGION.
1237 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
200 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING A THREAT OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAYS HIGHS SHOULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
927 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016 THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL COMBINE WITH A RELATIVELY SHORT SHOT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN CO AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. THIS MEANS WE WILL NEED QUITE A BIT OF LIFT TO GET THIS MOISTURE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IT MAY EVEN TAKE A BIT TO GET THE MOUNTAIN TOPS TO SEE SNOWFALL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PROGS ALL SUGGEST A VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. IN ADDITION, THE TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN OVER THE WESTERN STATES PRODUCING DRY AND WARM WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
1122 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
355 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SO THE MORNING UPDATE WILL REMOVE THE WORDING OF FREEZING FOG FROM THE ZFP.