Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface and upper-level ridge to mainly prevail through Sunday night with temperatures ranging from highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
An area of high pressure at the surface, currently centered over southern Ontario, will continue to slowly drift east with time. These southerly winds will help bring warmer temperatures to the area on Sunday, but not before one more chilly/frosty night over parts of the forecast area. Further north, winds will be a little stronger, and a period of cloudiness from a passing upper- level disturbance should keep temperatures warmer than the past couple of night.
Winds ease Sunday evening as upper low tracks into the Dakotas. Ridge builds back in through the upcoming week with warmer temperatures and very low chances for rainfall. Low pressure that is causing these winds currently over Challis Idaho with cold front from Meeteetse to Evanston Wyoming. Cooler temperatures Sunday will aid in higher humidity and decreased fire weather conditions.
1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Expect cool and dry weather in central Illinois over the weekend as high pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region. High pressure continues to dominate central and southeast Illinois this morning. High pressure currently centered near Lake Huron will slowly drift eastward today and tonight, while a high pressure ridge aloft migrates eastward to a position roughly over the Mississippi Valley. Cool temperatures can be expected, with highs generally in the upper 60s again, and lows tonight in the lower 40s. High pressure will continue to migrate eastward and then southward through the eastern U. Highs should be in the lower to mid 70s Sunday then rise to near 80 degrees by midweek.
An area of low pressure will swing through the region today, with the center passing over SE Oregon and SW Idaho around mid day. The low will keep temperatures on the cool side, and keep the chance of showers in the forecast. Smoke model data indicates that we should see improvement area-wide later on today as westerly winds on the back side of the low help to move our current smoke to the east, and the cooler wetter weather limits new smoke from fires.
An weakening upper level trough over the Southeast will shift clockwise, to over the northern Gulf coast by Sunday evening. 25" north of the Highway 84 corridor, and are expected to increase mainly in the mid an upper levels as southeast to southwest flow upper level flow increases. The upper trough has been helping to enhance weak isentropic upglide over the forecast area this morning, and is expected to continue to do so through the afternoon before the enhancement weakens and shifts south of the coast. Overcast skies and cooling northerly flow is expected over the area through the forecast, with temperatures cooler than seasonal norms continuing. Tonight's low temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low 60s along the Highway 84 corridor to mid 60s along the coast.
Upper low lifting through the Pacific Northwest with bands of clouds and showers pushing through western Montana. These showers will mostly hold off reaching eastern Montana until this evening, so expect a fairly warm day before cold front arrives. 3 am discussion: An upper ridge over eastern Montana this morning will move to the east today. An upper trough will move into western Montana today and across eastern Montana tonight and Sunday. Look for a warm day today with a thermal ridge ahead of a cold front that will move through the forecast area tonight.
Patterson (Issued 328 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020) Today through Sunday: High pressure overhead this morning will slowly drift eastward through Sunday. Dry weather will prevail under the influence of the high, along with limited cloud cover.
In response, the upper ridge that has been hanging out nearby will flatten, though the western extension of it will remain centered over West Texas. At the surface, winds will be relatively light as the South Plains remains positioned between weak troughing in the lee of the central Rockies and the southwestern extention of an expansive high centered over the Great Lakes. Lows tonight will dip into the 40s and 50s, while Sunday's highs will rise in the lower to middle 80s.
A persistent leeside trough will not change the lower tropospheric flow pattern through Sunday, though, so some of the smoke that has made it into the mixed layer will likely linger around much of the day. Remnants of tropical cyclone Beta are not expected to reach southwest Kansas as it will eventually become absorbed within the subtropical jet and shunted to the east/dissolve well to our southeast. A fairly strong leeside trough will remain in place through this TAF period, which will lead to continued south winds at speeds of 17 to 23 knots sustained (strongest and gusty during the afternoon hours).
306 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 253 PM CDT Another cool September night is in store again today, albeit warmer than last night, which should limit our frost potential for most areas. We could see a few areas get a bit warmer, especially across our southeastern zones depending on if skies are able to stay clear there longer.
(This evening through Sunday) High pressure ridge aloft shifts eastward as an upper trough progresses east from the Pacific NW.
1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure centered over the great lakes will remain in control of the regions weather today and tonight.
854 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Dry and cool conditions will prevail throughout the week under high pressure. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for areas north of Pittsburgh and for the ridge zones where temperature in the low and mid 30s are anticipated.
841 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 (Issued 840 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020) Upper ridge axis will build over the area tonight through Sunday night.
615 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 The relatively benign pattern continues for the area with seasonal temperatures in the lower 70s for highs and 50s for lows. Winds have shifted to the southeast today and increased slightly as the mid and upper level ridge builds into the area allowing a southerly flow to develop in the low levels.
The latest radar imagery was showing an area of weak convection northwest of Mud Lake working east toward Dubois ahead of the core of a well defined upper low on H2O satellite imagery.
508 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020 The upper level trough and surface cold front remain on track this afternoon as do the gusty winds ahead of the front. By daybreak Sunday, the front will have scooted well eastward while the H5 trough will be just moving over the Continental Divide.
813 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Strong high pressure will maintain influence over Michigan while it holds over the eastern Great Lakes through tomorrow. One more cool night is in store as the strong Canadian high pressure system remains the dominate influence over the region while becoming recentered to the east over southern Ontario/Quebec. Afternoon dewpoints mixed out into the low 30s showing the potential for another cool night as clear skies help temps drop rapidly early tonight. Dewpoints remain a bit higher to the south and with winds veering to more southeasterly we could slightly warmer temps across the south. Warmer weather is on the horizon as models show an amplifying upper level ridge drifting over the Great Lakes Sunday, and holding over the region into the mid week period.
High pressure will keep clear skies over central Indiana through the overnight hours.
1036 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Canadian high pressure will gradually cross our region the rest of the weekend. High pressure anchored over the St Lawrence valley will keep fair chilly weather in place through the remainder of the weekend.
A pleasant, mostly sunny day has unfolded as zonal flow developed in the wake of a passing trough.
842 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Showers and thunderstorms were most numerous today in eastern Idaho under the upper trough. The trough has been moving east and will be gone by Sunday. Trough decreased but did not eliminate the smoke in our CWA.
Previous Discussion: 3pm update: Upper low moving into Idaho this afternoon but showers have yet to spread east of the divide. Upper low lifting through the Pacific Northwest with bands of clouds and showers pushing through western Montana. These showers will mostly hold off reaching eastern Montana until this evening, so expect a fairly warm day before cold front arrives. 3 am discussion: An upper ridge over eastern Montana this morning will move to the east today. An upper trough will move into western Montana today and across eastern Montana tonight and Sunday. Look for a warm day today with a thermal ridge ahead of a cold front that will move through the forecast area tonight.
605 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure will continue to ridge southwestward into the Midwest through the first part of the week.
558 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 253 PM CDT Another cool September night is in store again today, albeit warmer than last night, which should limit our frost potential for most areas. We could see a few areas get a bit warmer, especially across our southeastern zones depending on if skies are able to stay clear there longer.
A weak frontal boundary will stall across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday, with high pressure building in behind the front from the north.
Winds ease Sunday evening as upper low tracks into the Dakotas. Ridge builds back in through the upcoming week with warmer temperatures and very low chances for rainfall. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected until 06z tonight across the area as a cold front is making its way across south central Wyoming at this hour. Low pressure that is causing these winds currently over Challis Idaho with cold front from Meeteetse to Evanston Wyoming. Cooler temperatures Sunday will aid in higher humidity and decreased fire weather conditions.
725 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the Midwest the next few days.
1047 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Currently - Deep layer ridging remains in place as weak winds dominate across the area. 09" PWAT, subsidence provided by ridging has squelched any precipitation that tries to develop. Looking beyond tonight, a cold front currently draped across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, north central Florida, and western Atlantic, will sag southward through the next few days.
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Continued quiet and cooler in the short term with ridging remaining overhead. An upper trough will move through midweek with rain chances dependent on how much moisture makes it into the area from remnants of TS Beta.
The nearly stagnant shear zone/trof axis at 5h will remain in place well to our south from SC through LA to T. The weak inverted trof at the surface into the lower levels of the atmosphere was situated from east TN through northwest AL south through MS. The lower and mid level clouds associated with this trof and corresponding isentropic ascent will tend to thin out later tonight. T Tongiht's Ridging aloft will build east from the southern Plains behind the overnight trof passage. This as surface ridging/wedging builds southwest through the lee of the Appalachians and into AL.
620 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure and clear skies will continue across the area.
Beautiful Fall-like weather conditions are occurring outside this afternoon, with temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the lower 40s. Quiet and dry conditions are expected this evening and through Sunday, as the upper level ridge slowly drifts east over the Plains and the Midwest. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer compared to this morning, with readings in the low to mid 40s. Highs will reach the lower 70s by the afternoon, a few degrees warmer than today.
932 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 While the surface pressure gradient remains fairly tight across the Lower Miss Valley due in part to Beta in the northwest Gulf and sfc ridging across the Ohio Valley, drier air continues to win out across our region with PWATs remaining near 0. You have to go well south of our region, south of the the Lower Toledo Bend area to near Vicksburg and southeast to see PWATs values near or above 1 inch and this is the moisture that should return quickly to our region on Sunday with what will become the initial impacts of Tropical Storm Beta.
A smokey haze from distant wildfires will persist across the region while frost and freezing temperatures are likely in the normally cold spots early Sunday morning.
As the center of the high over MI moves east this will gradually shift the local winds around to more southerly which could open the gulf moisture back up.
There may be a sharp surface temperature gradient along the northern edge of this lower cloud deck if it persists overnight, as expected. Temperature forecast over north MS a little less challenging given warmer surface dewpoints and broken/overcast mid and upper level clouds associated with the subtropical jet and high level moisture from Tropical Storm Beta. Temperatures are hovering in the low to mid 70s across much of the area, except for areas near the TN River, where Corinth is sitting at a chilly 68 degrees. This will offset the outgoing longwave radiation, keeping temperatures a bit warmer overnight. Nonetheless, expect lows to dip down into the lower 50s under clear skies, with upper 50s to lower 60s beneath the cirrus deck.
Meanwhile, broad upper troughing remains from the Great Lakes into the Northeast CONUS. At the same time, large area of upper ridging will persist from the Desert Southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley. By Mon evening, Tropical Storm Beta will be coming onshore over southern TX with a broad area of weak upper ridging remaining over the central/southern Plains. Remnants of Beta are expected to very slowly lift into the Lower Mississippi Valley for Tue into Wed night with any rainfall associated with this feature forecast to stay southeast of the forecast area. There is some agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in cutting off some upper energy over central/southern TX for Thu night into Sat, while a the same time strengthening upper ridging over the Great Basin/central Rockies.
Castro 253 PM CDT Another cool September night is in store again today, albeit warmer than last night, which should limit our frost potential for most areas. We could see a few areas get a bit warmer, especially across our southeastern zones depending on if skies are able to stay clear there longer.
A persistent leeside trough will not change the lower tropospheric flow pattern through Sunday, though, so some of the smoke that has made it into the mixed layer will likely linger around much of the day. Remnants of tropical cyclone Beta are not expected to reach southwest Kansas as it will eventually become absorbed within the subtropical jet and shunted to the east/dissolve well to our southeast.
Aloft, an upper level ridge sits over the region staving off inclement weather for the time being. The overnight lows will be in the 40s due to a warmer air mass being in place, no frost expected. Sunday night a weak cold front will slowly move over the Northland bringing some light rain showers over the region.
704 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 High pressure will continue to slide east through the period, with the pressure gradient increasing late tonight and Sunday. The large scale pattern will evolve from a serpentine zonal flow to a modest central CONUS ridge by midweek, with more uncertainty by the end of the week as an upper trough works toward the west coast and a stronger Pacific jet tries to push into the coast.
317 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020 3pm update: Upper low moving into Idaho this afternoon but showers have yet to spread east of the divide. Upper low lifting through the Pacific Northwest with bands of clouds and showers pushing through western Montana. These showers will mostly hold off reaching eastern Montana until this evening, so expect a fairly warm day before cold front arrives. 3 am discussion: An upper ridge over eastern Montana this morning will move to the east today. An upper trough will move into western Montana today and across eastern Montana tonight and Sunday. Look for a warm day today with a thermal ridge ahead of a cold front that will move through the forecast area tonight.
/Issued 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020/ An area of high pressure both at the surface and aloft remained common over the Southern Plains this afternoon. surface winds are forecast to be more east to southeast underneath high pressure which may aid in high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s. The area of high pressure over the region continues to keep Tropical Storm Beta on a slow west northwest movement toward the mid Texas Coast.
858 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Quiet wx conditions once again prevail across the mid TN Valley this Sat evening, as a strong dome of high pressure continues to build ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Current temps trends are mainly in the mid 60s/near 70F, and with a continued influx of slightly cooler/drier air out of the NNE, early morning lows look to fall predom into the mid/upper 50s for most spots. Ridging aloft will build east from the southern Plains behind the overnight trof passage. This as surface ridging/wedging builds southwest through the lee of the Appalachians and into AL.
336 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020 A cold front will move across the forecast area this afternoon into this evening.
712 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 (This evening through Sunday) High pressure ridge aloft shifts eastward as an upper trough progresses east from the Pacific NW.
Latest surface analysis places the center of high pressure at 1032dm near Toronto as satellite shows cirrus from TS Beta streaming over over SE KY. Clear skies overnight will see temperatures drop into the low to mid 40s across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass and into the mid 40s to low 50s across south central KY before warming into the low to mid 70s under sunny skies again Sunday. In the medium range, a quiet and tranquil weather pattern is expected as mid-level ridging slowly builds across the region. Lows Sunday night will probably drop back into the low-mid 40s over the Bluegrass region with mainly upper 40s across the rest of the CWA. Lows Monday night again should into the lower 40s over the Bluegrass with mid-upper 40s over the rest of the region.
Models are developing a weak upper level low underneath the ridge now in place over the center of the CONUS.
346 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 (Issued 344 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020) Today through Monday: Strong high pressure centered over the northeast United States will remain fairly stationary through Monday, while weakening a bit. This high will largely keep clouds away across southern Wisconsin through tomorrow, while southerly winds here on the west side of the high will result in warming temperatures.
A trough to the east is retreating towards the northeast, while a ridge over the Plains will migrate into the area for Sunday. Monday will see a lessening of the ridge amplitude as upper-level flow becomes more zonal. After another night with lows in the 40s for most of the Quad State, the ridge building into the area Sunday, along with a gradual wind shift from northeasterly to southeasterly, will contribute to a warming trend the next few days.
356 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 An upper level ridge is centered over the upper Great Plains this morning and will shift east during the day. Although cloud cover will increase as the trough moves through, precipitation chances are slim. Afterwards, the dominant pattern for the remainder of the forecast period is the upper level ridge.
Otherwise, an upper low/trof across the Canadian and northern U. The southerly low level flow looks to tap a bit more moisture on Monday which advects into far southern Kansas though little change to the seasonable warmth under the ridging aloft.
322 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Upper ridging continues to be the main story across the west Texas region. Surface ridging should once again let winds become light after sunset allowing temps to cool into the 40s/50s. This will result in surface lee troughing for most of this week.
The upper ridge in place over the High Plains moves east ahead of the upper trough moving east of the Rockies early Sunday. With the upper trough sweeping through and the flow going more zonal with the northern branch remaining mostly north of the forecast area, the concentration of smoke and haze that has been persistent across the High Plains is expected to decrease.
258 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Early this morning, an upper trough remains over the Intermountain West as noted in water vapor imagery. This will somewhat weaken the ridge over our area through tonight as the trough swings northward, but won't have much of an impact on our weather. We remain between low sfc pressure in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure to our east, so increased southerly flow keeps breezy conditions through the day with gusts of 25-30mph possible. This will continue to gradually increase temperatures in the low levels, so this in addition to decent mixing will bring highs a couple degrees warmer than yesterday in the low 80s for most, upper 70s in far eastern KS. Lows will be similar to the last couple days in the low to mid 50s without a change in air mass.
148 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020 High pressure continues to build in, bringing a long stretch of dry, cool early Autumn weather through the end of the week. The upper ridge will actually create an omega block with a low in southwest Canada and one in southeast Canada which eventually move to our east over the Atlantic. This will set up a decent blocking pattern to prolong fair weather into the next period. At H500, models suggest a ridging will try to form on Monday, but it appears to be short lived. The fog will dissipate early at sunrise and from then on, high pressure dominates, so expect VFR conditions to prevail.
Expect clear skies and cooler than normal temps to continue today and tonight. Low-level thickness progs suggest max temps this afternoon will be about 2 deg warmer than Sat.
Today: A compact upper trough will lift northeast across the Northern Plains and southern Canadian provinces through the day.
Upper trough and associated cool front continues to push east across the region this morning. Otherwise, mean NE PAC upper trough will support semi-unsettled near zonal flow across the NW-ncentral CONUS. A cold front will cross the region tonight, resulting in some breezy WNW winds across northwestern SD Sunday. This trough/front will help push haze/smoke out of the area, at least for a little while. Elevated fire wx conditions expected again today with dry northwest winds behind the cold front. Progressive pattern continues through the week with a cold front passage about every 2-3 days, but moisture will remain limited. Elevated to potentially critically fire danger expected at times, mainly with the approach and passage of each cold front.
445 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020 High pressure will build south into the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
Weak instability over the region this afternoon and early evening as the upper low continues to move east through Idaho. Weak upper trough approaching Monday with increasing high level clouds in the afternoon. The trough axis has exit the forecast area this afternoon with a dry northwest flow starting to setup over the region. These showers will subside later this afternoon as the trough continues to move to the northeast.
/issued 932 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020/ While the surface pressure gradient remains fairly tight across the Lower Miss Valley due in part to Beta in the northwest Gulf and sfc ridging across the Ohio Valley, drier air continues to win out across our region with PWATs remaining near 0. You have to go well south of our region, south of the the Lower Toledo Bend area to near Vicksburg and southeast to see PWATs values near or above 1 inch and this is the moisture that should return quickly to our region on Sunday with what will become the initial impacts of Tropical Storm Beta.
416 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020 High pressure will guarantee fair but cool fall-like weather today. High pressure over the St Lawrence valley will keep fair, but cool weather in place through tonight.