Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
435 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
157 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY-THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS TRACKING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THAT WILL SWING THROUGH WI OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL END THE DRIZZLE/RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 11 PM AND 5 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S.
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS STILL DISPLACED FROM THE TROUGH THOUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF.
214 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD. WITH AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECTING A RATHER STEADY TEMPERATURE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
312 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE PLAINS.
THE LOW STRATUS DECK BEING PULLED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW COUNTIES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z.
A BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
406 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 An Upper level low continued to make its way across Western Texas this afternoon with a dry slot on the backside of the trof axis. a mid level boundary ahead of the upper low looks to stall near/just southeast of the CWA. before the upper level low pressure finally departs off to the east Sunday night. In the wake of the departing upper level low. a ridge of high pressure is forecast to set up over the Southern Plains. Another low pressure system.
353 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 Showers and lingering drizzle exited the region this afternoon as the upper level trough driving the activity swept east through the Plains States. As the trough continues east clouds will clear overnight allowing for decent amount of cooling, though we're still only talking about lows in the 40s. Stepping back to look at the big picture, as the trough moves through the Plains into the eastern CONUS the flow will flatten out and then amplify across the Central Plains over the next several days.
317 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEST TO EAST AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SATURATE TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH ENHANCED SURFACE FRONTOGENSIS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULDN'T FALL MUCH FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. INTO THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.
EXPECT FAIR AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH EAST OF COLORADO THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ESTABLISHING AN ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WHICH WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO WASHINGTON THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES TO ALL TAF SITES.
1129 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA. WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE. LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
212 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
232 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
MEAN LAYER ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
251 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 18Z TAF issuance VFR conditions behind a cold front that moved through this morning.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
204 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
1126 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA WITH TRAILING FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH SURFACE TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROF FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST. A MILD AND DRY WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE TROF AND A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER.
215 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
105 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.
255 PM MST SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
141 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TRAILING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
127 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LAGGING BEHIND A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. IT WILL THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH CENTER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
Rain moved out of the area earlier today, with a cold front in it's wake, and some low clouds that continue to clear the area as dryier air moves from the north. The axis of the upper level trough that helped bring all the rain to the area the last couple days is west of the area roughly along a line from Amarillo to Carlsbad, NM and southwest into northern Mexico. High clouds continue to stream over the area along the eastern side of this trough. Until the trough axis makes its way into our CWA later tonight, these clouds will continue over the area. The numerical models remain in good agreement with the overall evolution of the next upper-level trough which will affect the state.
338 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 This afternoon a closed upper low was located across central TX, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet. The upper trough that moved east across the northern and central plains last night has moved into the upper Midwest this afternoon. The upper low embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet will slowly move east across the gulf coast states through Sunday afternoon. Tonight will be clear with lows in the lower 40s. Expect sunny skies with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
233 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY.
Look for a drier but cooler trend by midweek followed by another wet system by the end of the week. JW 12Z TAFS: A very moist warm front is lifting into the region delivering wdsprd rain north of a line from Omak to Spokane to Pullman. Rain will linger over the region through 00z then slowly clear from north to south with cold front passage.
347 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN. YEILDING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
359 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
627 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
316 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER LOCALLY PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH MID-90S COMMON ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO ABOUT 101 DEGREES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
355 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER MUCH OF TEXAS WITH 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING 596 DM RIDGE OVER W TX. RIDGE STRETCHES OVER MUCH OF THE S PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND NW GULF OF MEXICO. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT GOING INTO THE NEXT SUN/MON TIME FRAME THAT THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE S ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR A WEAK NW FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NORMAL POP DAY TODAY WITH THE HIGH COUNTRY HAVING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF GETTING WET. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE REMAINING OVER TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION IN THE SHORT TERM AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SPURRED ON BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS HAD ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ERODE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COMPARED TO THE RECORD TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES DEEPER INTO FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK TROUGHINESS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN THE STEERING WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE STORMS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT NEAR THE LOW AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH THROUGH MANITOBA TONIGHT AND OPEN UP. RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WHILE TROUGH FROM OPENING LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE PASSING TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING OVER THE EAST AND NORTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE FROM FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS AS OF 02Z WERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 15 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
421 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED OVER TX/LA. WITH TROUGHS OVER EACH COAST.
634 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
342 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
TODAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO WEST WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
WARMER INTO THE MID AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
358 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TUE. UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOWER TO THE UPPER 80S TODAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. WARMER ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
Additionally, a weak cold front will approach/move through during the afternoon/evening. With moderate to strong instability, low-level forcing, and upstream convective temperatures reached over Kansas (where the higher coverage of storms is expected), expect a few widely scattered thunderstorms to develop by mid/late afternoon. Tuesday afternoon will be slightly cooler only in a relative sense to Monday, with heat indicies around 100 for most areas.
143 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS A RATHER CLASSIC MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN MIDWEEK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER ND HAS FORCED A LEAD WAVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK CAA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT. MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPING BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY MOST AREAS SAVE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
A DRY BUT PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD INDUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD/WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR MONDAY.
400 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A VERY ACTIVE AND STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. SHARPENING UP A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE AS A MORE STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE EAST BEHIND WAVE. MODELS THEN SUGGEST LATER IN THE PERIOD THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK WEST.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPS TODAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
347 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 In the middle of a summertime wx pattern with upper ridge centered over TX. Subsidence under the ridge will result in increasing temperatures and few clouds. The center will slowly drift east but the ridge will remain over the region through the end of the week. Most storms that are able to develop will be pushed around the edge of the ridge and out of the area.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OR/ID BORDER WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA THAT SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ANY TAF SITE COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.
336 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY.
316 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. AS A SIDE NOTE RELATED TO MOISTURE, THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO THE MORE ACCURATE NAM. ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES, THE 00Z NAM INDICATED RETURNING INSTABILITY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AS THE TROUGH AXIS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
A BUILDING/EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE IS ROTATING RIGHT OVER THE OKARKLATEX. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW STATES WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN OUR CWA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. AT 2 AM MDT SATELLITE SHOWED ONE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXITING EASTERN IDAHO. A SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND WITH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL WA AND CENTRAL OREGON.
DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE AREA. RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE NW CA INTERIOR. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND END TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS ALOFT. COASTAL AREAS APPEAR TO BE IMMUNE TO THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND MAY SEE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH BALMY AND A BIT MUGGY CONDITIONS. DEW PT VALUES ARE DOWN ABOUT 7 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BUT EVEN DEW PTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER HIGH RH AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S BY DAYBREAK IN RURAL AREAS AND UPPER 70S IN URBAN AREAS AND TOWARD THE BEACH.
349 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 ON AVERAGE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE COOLER MEMBERS HAVE PROVEN TO BE MORE ACCURATE.
ASIDE FROM A PASSING RIDGE AXIS ATOP THE REGION TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION FOR THAT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. A SECONDARY TROF AXIS ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPR LVL LOW OF TDA WILL AID IN KEEPING SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE AREA. PRECIP WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE MRNG AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE ARRIVES.
104 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted west over the last 24 hours, and is currently centered over the Texas South Plains. W/this movement, the theta-e ridge has shifted further west into New Mexico as well. A trough is forecast to develop down the west coast over the next few days, nudging the upper ridge back to the east. However, during this time, models strengthen the ridge and increase thicknesses over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/forecast soundings and 850mb temps increasing afternoon highs to widespread triple-digit tamps on Monday, and similarly on Tuesday. Again, we've stayed generally towards the cooler side of guidance, but this is still well-abv normal, and should yield the warmest temps so far for most locations.
STILL THINK THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE COMES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF BEGINS ITS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. TAX POPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
303 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AS WELL AS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY AND WARMER FOR THE MID TO LATER PART OF THIS WEEK. ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF ALONG THE COAST IS AND WILL BE SPREADING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. THE TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES AND MAINLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL RANGE WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JHM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC NOW HAS CROSSED 130W AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
207 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST TROUGH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUB- TROPICAL HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE. ANTICYCLONE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DOMINANT OVER ARIZONA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.