Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
to the lower 50s south of I-70. High pressure will move overhead this evening, resulting in nearly calm winds and temperatures quickly bottoming out in the lower to middle 30s. A strong cold front will drop southward into the region Wednesday night.
The low level circulation indicates some of this will advect into northern and eastern portions of the Denver metro area over the next 2-3 hours. A cold front will track south across eastern Colorado Wednesday morning/afternoon. Models still not clear on the timing of the cold front which could be morning or early afternoon. Temperatures in this layer are expected to be colder than 0C and warmer than -10C. All of this should produce some freezing drizzle Wednesday night.
/issued 149 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019/ High amplitude U/L pattern will persist across North America with a broad L/W trough extending generally east of the Rockies. with a sharp U/L ridge off the west coast of the U. U/L disturbances will ride through the mean U/L flow reinforcing the broad L/W trough through the period. A warm front extends across the central Florida peninsula and will become quasi-stationary as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow.
Yesterday was a cold front. An upper level low currently off the coast of SOCAL. A strong cold front.
417 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 Two strong cold fronts will be the main features of the forecast for the next seven days.
511 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Showers will spread across the area this morning before exiting this afternoon with a passing cold front.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern with dry weather conditions and above average temperatures. Temperatures early this morning are running generally near to a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago as low level moisture has increased.
The return flow will allow the afternoon mercury to reach about 5 degrees or so warmer than Tuesday.
A Canadian cold front will push against the Continental Divide Tuesday evening into Wednesday; this system will be very dry with snow showers mostly restricted to the Continental Divide from the Canadian border south through the Bob Marshall Wilderness.
/issued 417 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/ Two strong cold fronts will be the main features of the forecast for the next seven days.
706 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Showers will end this afternoon with a passing cold front.
Warmer across the CWA today as sunshine combines with downslope westerly winds. Clouds should increase tonight ahead of the next cold front that will move across the CWa later Weds morning through Weds afternoon. Moisture will be rather shallow with temperature profiles favoring some very light snow and freezing drizzle east of the mtns Weds afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front currently extends from northeast Ohio through northwest Tennessee and into northeast Texas.
We should be a bit warmer today as high pressure makes a brief shift eastward.
High pressure will bring dry conditions all the way through the weekend. Today through Wednesday Ridging to the west and a longwave trof to the northeast will keep Nevada in a light north to northwest flow through Wednesday. Huge upper ridge over the Coast with dry northwesterly flow over the Great Basin. Some differences in where the models put the center of the high and lows coming over the Northern Rockies will affect the advection of high clouds over the region.
The lower ceilings are north of a stalled boundary which will begin to lift northward later today through tonight.
As another cold front advances closer to Texas, moisture will continue a return to West Central Texas. Tonight, expect warmer temperatures, as persistent clouds limit radiational cooling.
Weak boundary/warm front will remain quasi-stationary across north Florida today with showers and thunderstorms most prevalent south of the boundary in the warm sector, generally south of Interstate 10.
Other than a few high clouds cresting the offshore ridge, skies remain clear across the region early this morning. Winds remain generally light other than some locally gusty northeast/east winds of 15-30 mph across the ridges of the northern Sierra Nevada. High temperatures will continue to be well above average and overnight lows will be chilly on valley floors beneath a strong surface inversion while foothill and mountain ridges will remain mild at night.
Light rain showers associated with a cold front will linger through daybreak, but high pressure will expand across the region after that.
309 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 High pressure was building into the area early this morning from the Northern Plains. Pressure gradient from the high and cold front that made passage earlier was producing some semi-gusty northwest winds with gusts to 20 mph. For today that high will drift across the area with mostly sunny skies expected into the afternoon hours before clouds advance from the west as low pressure drops southeast out of the Northern Plains.
Highs should run about 5 degrees warmer than climatological norms but we'll take it after last week's farce of cold temperatures. A closed low opens up to our south and tracks to Texas but keeps any precip it generates also to our south.
328 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 Old frontal boundary(inverted trough) stalled just to the east of the area will remain there while weakening over the next few days.
411 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Rain is expected with a crossing cold front later tonight and part of Tuesday. Dry weather then returns through Wednesday night under high pressure. Precipitation chances return with late week low pressure. Showers are beginning to fill in on radar this morning in advance of the cold front as dry air at the surface begins to saturate. Models point to somewhat enhanced precipitation with frontogenesis and better upper support along the cold front late morning/early afternoon.
354 AM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 Upper ridge to the west of Colorado another day, with light nw flow aloft across the region. Low/mid level winds take on a more wly component today, especially across the plains, which should lead to warmer max temps along and east of the mts. Overnight, weak pressure falls on the plains should keep winds stirred through the night, leading to slightly warmer min temps along the I-25 corridor and across the eastern plains, while mountains and interior valleys fall to seasonably cool readings.
After not being on shift for a few days, this week still resembles what I observed last week--a long period of dry weather with near normal low temperatures in the valley and warmer than normal afternoon readings. As we progress into early November, upper ridges of high pressure have a greater tendency to yield stagnant air masses with little mixing and very light winds.
/issued 421 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid-level low/trough centered over Baja California and a subtropical 500 mb ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico will support a near zonal flow over the region through the period. At the surface, a weak cold front will drift into central Texas today before stalling. Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail as weak high pressure builds into area from the northeast by Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight should range from the upper 60s across the northern Ranchlands to the lower 70s in the Rio Grande Valley and near the coast.
The models all show this waa/frontogenetical area descending/developing southeast into our region through this morning and this afternoon as a couple short wave troughs move over our region. Otherwise, caa behind this system will occur through tonight and Wednesday as another short wave trough drops in from Canada. Highs in the lower 30s to the lower 40s today will be mostly in the mid 20s to the lower 30s on Wednesday.
Despite some scattered showers and a fair amount of cloud cover, afternoon highs should peak from the low to mid 70s.
/issued 305 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019/ The latest regional surface analysis indicates weak high pressure over the Appalachians with continued bridging through North GA.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid-level low/trough centered over Baja California and a subtropical 500 mb ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico will support a near zonal flow over the region through the period. At the surface, a weak cold front will drift into central Texas today before stalling. Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail as weak high pressure builds into area from the northeast by Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight should range from the upper 60s across the northern Ranchlands to the lower 70s in the Rio Grande Valley and near the coast.
Winds will remain light except for periodic, modest increases in easterly winds over Sierra ridges due to a persistent pressure gradient between the Great Basin and the Central Valley of California.
Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front is tracking through Arkansas Tuesday morning, producing isolated light rain showers. High pressure will build into the region behind the cold front, bringing in drier air and clearing sky conditions Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday morning, Gulf moisture meets a trough of low pressure and returns rain chances to the western portions of the state. This band of precipitation will merge into a cold front, approaching from the NW late Wednesday. Highs Wednesday in the upper 50s in northern Arkansas to the lower 70s in southern Arkansas.
Dry and mild weather is expected through the upcoming week as high pressure builds across the West. No weather impacts are apparent during the next several days as a dry pattern with above normal temperatures holds under a mean ridge which remains parked near the West Coast. The weak closed low that has been circulating underneath the ridge near Southern California will move inland Wednesday over northern Baja then open up as it lifts across southern Arizona and New Mexico by Wednesday night. A weak impulse sliding down the front side of the ridge across northeast Nevada and Utah will drag some cirrus clouds across the region Wednesday, but they should stay fairly transparent and only filter sunshine slightly.
Aloft, northwest flow continues, with an Alberta clipper and associated warm front already causing snow in eastern Montana. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to the warm advection, with temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s. This will lead to sunny skies but high temperatures ranging only from the upper teens north to the mid 20s south, with breezy northwesterly winds in the wake of the cold front, especially in the James River Valley. Wednesday night will be the coldest night of the season thus far due to this high pressure, with overnight lows of 5 to 10 degrees above zero.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today due to the front and increased cloud cover due to deepening moisture.
A cold front will sliding into the far north toward 12Z with some light snow developing in the northern Bighorn mountains and northern Johnson county around 12Z.
448 AM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 Overrunning snow event will push east and weaken this morning, before a disturbance in the northwest flow pushes a cold front south from Canada late this afternoon. High pressure presses south behind the front, with cold air advection and pressure rises helping to mix down some of the winds aloft. Wednesday night should be very cold with clear skies and light winds as the high pressure moves into the Dakotas. Western ridge begins to flatten out after midweek for slightly more downslope flow and warming temperatures into the end of the week.
620 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area today. High pressure will be in the region Wednesday.
526 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Showers will spread across the area this morning before exiting this afternoon with a passing cold front.
549 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 High pressure was building into the area early this morning from the Northern Plains. Pressure gradient from the high and cold front that made passage earlier was producing some semi-gusty northwest winds with gusts to 20 mph. For today that high will drift across the area with mostly sunny skies expected into the afternoon hours before clouds advance from the west as low pressure drops southeast out of the Northern Plains.
This evening and overnight some moisture will begin to creep back into the lower troposphere, with a slight increase in convective coverage probable, especially when combined with nocturnal marine boundary layer instability and general confluence over the straits.
328 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 Early morning water vapor imagery shows continued northwest flow over the region with surface obs revealing a diffuse area of high pressure over the Dakotas. Increasing cloud coverage along a weak confluence/warm frontal boundary draped across the western Dakotas suggests lift associated with the approaching wave and a upper level jet max is beginning to overspread the region. Snow chances will become more widespread for eastern ND and northwest MN after 7 PM tonight as stronger lift from the upper level wave and a surface cold front moves into the region.
Looks like a quiet night in advance of the approaching cold front. Rather strong Canadian origin cold front will slide southward across our counties, with steady or slowly falling temperatures likely after frontal passage. With the atmosphere moistening up and upslope low level winds, will see a chance of snow across the eastern plains in the wake of the cold front.
With the loss of daytime heating tonight the low clouds should break up inland but will likely hang on along the coast with a light onshore flow.
303 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 The lingering zone of isentropically induced stratocu and some isolated showers will continue to erode/scatter in the southern and eastern portions of the CWA late this afternoon as a backdoor front on the leading edge of another reinforcing ridge pushes southward.
/Issued 1107 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019/ Only some minor near term adjustments made as forecast is largely on track to have diminishing slight pops the next few hours for isolated overrunning showers, then improved conditions and scattering cloud coverage from the NW as a secondary ridge builds in with drier conditions. /Issued 644 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019/ The latest regional surface analysis indicates weak high pressure over the Appalachians with continued bridging through North GA.
Skies are expected to clear tonight behind the boundary as ridging temporarily builds over Eastern Conus. However, this ridging will be short lived. This will quickly bring our flow back around with only minimal cooler air experienced tonight. For Wednesday night ahead of our next system, moisture return behind the exiting ridge to the east will allow for increased cloud cover and milder overnight temperatures.
Downstream of that, a large synoptic scale trough encompasses the Eastern three quarters of the CONUS, and then flattens out across Northern Old Mexico Eastern to the breadth of the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Northern Florida with 50 to 75 knot westerlies at 250 mb at this latitude. South of that, a middle and upper anticyclonic ridge is oriented from Southern Mexico east to Eastern Cuba. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels,(Surface to 700 mb). Temperatures are in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
A dry and stable airmass resides across the forecast area this morning, sandwiched between a belt of northwesterly flow aloft extending through the northern Rockies, and an upper low spinning just off the northern Baja coast.
With the diffuse remnants of the cold frontal boundary still in the area, this moisture along with weak low level lift is expected to produce low clouds across most of the area, along with light patchy drizzle and/or fog for areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo line after midnight tonight. For Wednesday, the western upper level low will be moving into southern AZ while opening up into a trough.
355 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 The current surface analysis across the area features drier and cooler air filtering in behind a cold front that has tracked over the Appalachian Range. The clear skies overnight coupled with calm winds will allow for some significant ridge to valley temperature differences. Ridges across the area will remain in the 30s for lows overnight. Into the day on Wednesday, high pressure will be firmly over the region with little to no cloud cover through the day. Upper levels will feature some moisture moving into the region late in the day as some cirrus will move into the area ahead of a deepening upper level trough. The combination of this along with clear skies will allow temperatures across the area to rebound into the low 60s across eastern Kentucky for highs.
1159 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Showers will end this afternoon with a passing cold front.
Clouds have thinned out, allowing most locations to climb into the low 60s. Temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning will be a few degrees cooler than last night. In turn, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, especially along and south of I-40. Clouds are expected to increase Wednesday afternoon and night ahead of a cold front.
147 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 A dry, but cold night and Wednesday can be expected as high pressure builds over the region.
A longwave upper level trof over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.
1226 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 MVFR ceilings will develop and move northward this eveing into much of central and northern Oklahoma as the lower levels moisten. /issued 417 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/ Two strong cold fronts will be the main features of the forecast for the next seven days.
232 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 High pressure centered near St.
A mix of clouds and sun have made for a pleasant start with temperatures climbing into the lower 50s.
As an upper trough axis edges eastward, heights will rise across our region today and cloud cover will begin to decrease from southwest to northeast. Even with the warm air advection today, overall model guidance has trended cooler for high temps and ultimately readings will be dependent on timing of clearing/degree of insolation. Have opted for some conservatively cooler highs today ranging from the upper 40s in our northeast zones (where clouds will hold longer) to warmer readings in the upper 50s in north central Kansas. In a progressive northwest flow regime, cold air will push south across the the northern and central plains on Wednesday, and the cold front is expected to reach our northern zones in the afternoon and the remainder of our cwa in the evening.
Highs into the lower 80s far north to 85-87 across the central and srn zones this afternoon.
Meanwhile, out west, light snow associated with advancing cold front will likely affect parts of mainly the western CWA late tnt into Wednesday morning.
The frontal boundary has stalled again across the Nature Coast and will wash out as high pressure builds across the area through Wednesday. Lows ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south tonight.
1234 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 A cold front will move through the region today, but most of the moisture will remain ahead of the front and east of the area. High pressure will be in the region Wednesday.
Weak closed low circulating off the Baja Coastline will pivot inland tomorrow.
With the weak influence of the high bringing slightly cooler and drier air to the region, expect daybreak Wednesday temperatures to range near 50 across Central Louisiana, to the mid/upper 50s elsewhere under mostly clearing skies.
The large scale flow will continue to be dominated by strong ridging over the eastern Pacific and a deep downstream trough over North America. The strong northwest upper flow around the ridge and into the trough will provide a nearly continuous feed of cold air from high latitudes into the area. Temperatures will be 10-20F degrees below normal, except for brief moderation on the back side of each passing anticyclone prior to the arrival of the subsequent cold surge. Temperatures tonight should be warmer than MOS guidance suggests due to increasing cloud cover and lack of snow cover.
223 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 Latest 19z surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Iowa and southern Minnesota.
Warm front situated south of the Red River this morning and associated cloud cover across southeast OK and northern TX will slowly work back to the north today and tonight. Rain chances to significantly increase during the day Wednesday and especially Wednesday night as an upper system moves into the plains and a cold front sweeps through the forecast area.
A weak cold front will move through the region tonight. The NAM brings in much cooler, drier air than the consensus of the other models. The forecast is warmer than the NAM and closer to consensus.
Temperatures will be warmer today given low level warming. The low level circulation indicates some of this will advect into northern and eastern portions of the Denver metro area over the next 2-3 hours. A cold front will track south across eastern Colorado Wednesday morning/afternoon. Models still not clear on the timing of the cold front which could be morning or early afternoon. Temperatures in this layer are expected to be colder than 0C and warmer than -10C. All of this should produce some freezing drizzle Wednesday night.
Temperatures may hover just above freezing in the Glendive area, so this could lead to icy roads this evening behind a strong cold front as temperatures plummet. -Mottice Overrunning snow event will push east and weaken this morning, before a disturbance in the northwest flow pushes a cold front south from Canada late this afternoon. High pressure presses south behind the front, with cold air advection and pressure rises helping to mix down some of the winds aloft. Wednesday night should be very cold with clear skies and light winds as the high pressure moves into the Dakotas. Western ridge begins to flatten out after midweek for slightly more downslope flow and warming temperatures into the end of the week.
1122 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Showers will end this afternoon with a passing cold front.
/issued 549 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/ (Today and Tonight) As another cold front advances closer to Texas, moisture will continue a return to West Central Texas. Tonight, expect warmer temperatures, as persistent clouds limit radiational cooling.
Despite the weak cold front that moved through the area during the afternoon, overnight temperatures are not anticipated to get very cold with lower 40s for most and a few upper 30s for higher elevations. Rinse and repeat for Wednesday as high pressure works its way in to the area from the northwest. Afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than Tuesday with some locations making it up to 70F. As a frontal system approaches from the west, cloud coverage gradually increases from west to east Wednesday night resulting in a mild evening with overnight lows in the lower 50s.
As the low pressure progresses eastward it weakens into an open wave as it gets absorbed into the northwest flow over the Southern Plains. This extra insolation may keep the low temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer tomorrow night than previous mornings. The upper ridge builds eastward over the Great Basin this weekend. This may allow the temperatures to be slightly warmer than what we are currently experiencing.
The ridge will build back strong over the area for the remainder of the week however so any improvement in air quality may be temporary.
1033 AM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 Upper ridge to the west of Colorado another day, with light nw flow aloft across the region. Low/mid level winds take on a more wly component today, especially across the plains, which should lead to warmer max temps along and east of the mts. Overnight, weak pressure falls on the plains should keep winds stirred through the night, leading to slightly warmer min temps along the I-25 corridor and across the eastern plains, while mountains and interior valleys fall to seasonably cool readings.