Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ahead of this trough, the airmass remains moist and unstable with PWAT values near 2 inches. Overnight lows are generally expected to be in the low to mid 70s. As the system moves off, a ridge of high pressure will build at the low levels, with upper level ridging over the western Atlantic, and a cut off upper low over the Texas coast. A weak cold front extending from the system formerly known as Harvey will sweep west to east across the area this weekend, keeping some chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period.
157 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Tonight and Saturday will be mainly dry and cool as high pressure resides over the region. Rain associated with remnants of Harvey and a passing cold front is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning.
645 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. The risk for isolated to scattered showers/tstms will increase along the Georgia coast after midnight as weak low pressure develops along a sharp coastal trough that extended from the Northeast Flordia coast to about 80nm east of Hilton Head at 12/22z.
Southeast Michigan remains under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge this morning. Today should be the warmest day yet with highs in the low 90s areawide and mid 90s in the Detroit metro area. Forecast soundings confirm the expectation for a strong capping inversion beneath the mid-level ridge, ensuring another dry day for most of the area. Eastward progression of the upper low will into Tuesday will allow steeper lapse rates to encroach on Lower Michigan. 3km NAM buffer sounding offers a glimpse into the high density instability profiles that will be available, particularly further west. Pervasive convective chances in the forecast for the remainder of the week as the upper low lifts into southern Canada.
High pressure will be East/Northeast of the region this period.
The winds will prevail primarily blowing out of/from the Northwest and West and are expected to actually be stronger in the lower elevations and valleys and to cause nuisance impacts to Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Ephrata, Pullman, and Lewiston airports.
610 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
Weak returns approaching from the west dissipating and with high pressure in place and no support, keeping forecast dry. however an upper ridge and north-to-easterly turning winds will help keep any precip to the west of the FA as the ridge axis shifts over the valley by 18Z.
This was in response to a deep upper level low currently in the Great Basin. This low will eject out of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies and then the northern Plains tomorrow. Surface dew points in the lower 60s have allowed mixed layer instabilities to climb to around 2000 J/kg already and could go slightly higher in the next few hours.
249 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure persists off the southeast coast through midweek.
325 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. Plentiful mid/high level clouds will continue to stream in from the south on the west side of the upper ridge axis. There could be isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms within the coastal trough late tonight, mainly over the coastal waters, but perhaps even along the Georgia coast.
413 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The cold front is just encroaching upon northeast Utah this afternoon with strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front and the parent upper level low spinning in northeast Nevada. As previously mentioned, winds will gradually die down behind the front as the colder air works in but breezy conditions can still be anticipated across the higher terrain. This will be the case again on Tuesday as the base of the upper level low swings through the region.
104 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather will continue into the evening as an upper ridge maintains its influence. However, a developing weakness in the ridge and a cold front approaching from the north will support modestly-increasing chances for showers and storms late in the tonight period.
611 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather will continue into the evening as an upper ridge maintains its influence. However, a developing weakness in the ridge and a cold front approaching from the north will support modestly-increasing chances for showers and storms late in the tonight period. Maxima will be only slightly cooler than those today, with humidity leading to comparable apparent temperature. The cold front will stall overnight, draped across the region from nw to se. A broad upper trough is expected to advance across the nrn CONUS through the week, maintaining daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Will maintain a VFR forecast over the next 24 hours underneath high pressure.
/issued 314 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ An upper-level ridge continues to build over the southeast CONUS this morning while a deep trough digs over the west. A mid-level, cut-off low is sitting over the northwest Gulf of Mexico at this time and will meander in that general vicinity for the next few days. The combination of this upper low and the southerly winds on the backside of the building ridge will help advect deep moisture into the Mid-South this week. Dewpoints are already in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees and will generally remain in the lower 70s throughout the forecast period. By midweek, the western CONUS trough is progged to lift northeast into the Prairie Provinces before eventually shifting east later in the week.
202 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 An area of high pressure will remain centered along the east coast for the next few days, keeping a southerly flow across the region. Tuesday morning the upper level ridge will start to nudge east and slowly loose cohesion. All the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and CMC have been very consistent in showing precipitation developing Tuesday morning in our western zones thanks to the low level convergence. Tuesday afternoon a weak upper level low will move north towards southern Ohio before pushing east. 50" respectively with K index values in the lower 30s.
Heavy rain west central Montana, southwest Montana, and Lemhi county tonight into Tuesday with significant stream and river A strong low pressure system will continue to send waves of precipitation into central Idaho, and southwest Montana this afternoon, and spread north and westward into west-central Montana this evening. Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible in the higher terrain tonight through Tuesday.
Track of upper low will cut right across southeast Idaho this evening. With upper dynamics lacking, models are backing off the precip tonight as the low passes over the Snake Plain. That large area of wrap around rain and high elevation snow will continue to spread east and overspread most of the area by Tuesday morning as the low tracks through east Idaho.
/Issued 1039 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ Rich Gulf moisture transport into the region is well underway, with dewpoints in the low 70s areawide. The low clouds should scatter out by mid morning.
325 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather will continue into the evening as an upper ridge maintains its influence. However, a developing weakness in the ridge and a cold front approaching from the north will support modestly-increasing chances for showers and storms late in the tonight period. Maxima will be only slightly cooler than those today, with humidity leading to comparable apparent temperature. The cold front will stall overnight, draped across the region from nw to se. A broad upper trough is expected to advance across the nrn CONUS through the week, maintaining daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Will maintain a VFR forecast over the next 24 hours underneath high pressure.
307 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the Great Basin this afternoon, while rich Gulf moisture and instability was in place to the east of a dryline which was positioned from northwest Kansas to the Texas Panhandle. With the upper low remaining to the west tonight, an elevated mixed layer should suppress thunderstorm development in the forecast area.
Lows tonight will fall into the low/mid 50s, with a few upper 50s across the southern U. Then for Tue highs will warm into the low/mid 70s, but with a northeast wind areas along the northern U. and adjacent to Lake Superior or within the Lake Superior shadow could remain several degrees cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Another warm day is on tap as the area remains on the western edge of the mid level ridge.
239 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A cold front will cross the area late tonight and early Tuesday followed by Canadian high pressure for the mid to late week. Showers should then dissipate later this evening as a cold front pushes south across the area. Tuesday will be warm over the area with highs from the low to mid 70s north to low 80s Downeast.
So have trimmed POPS down to account for at least some isolated development, though forcing other than the low level boundary looks pretty meager. The Corfidi vectors have more of an ENE look so this turn makes sense so planning on this continuing to trend more east so have the highest POPS in the northern CWA, which does point to the HRRR solution as having a plausible handle on trends. Mid level ridging pops up across the area though 850 winds still proggd to be southerly with some moisture/thermal convergence possibly resulting in some SHRA/TSRA though the ECMWF is dry.
625 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A ridge aloft will remain over the area through mid-week.
A ridge remains in place across the Southeastern United states this afternoon. Apparently, just enough buoyancy to limit formation generally to the higher terrain.
Lows tonight will fall into the low/mid 50s, with a few upper 50s across the southern U. Then for Tue highs will warm into the low/mid 70s, but with a northeast wind areas along the northern U. and adjacent to Lake Superior or within the Lake Superior shadow could remain several degrees cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s. With high pressure overhead tonight lifting northeast Tuesday, winds will turn northeast to east but the gradient is expected to remain light with a 10-20kt winds.
Temperatures will be below normal tonight, with freezing temperatures forecast in the mountains Tuesday morning. Starting Tuesday afternoon, a return to warmer temperatures with much lighter wind is in the forecast. Windy and cooler than normal conditions continue across northern Arizona this afternoon as a cold front pushes eastward across the region. Some of the higher elevation areas above 6500 feet will likely see below freezing temperatures.
The low level jet will shift off to the north late tonight and allow speeds to decrease. /issued 321 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ Ridge rules. High pressure will continue to dominate the wx pattern this week even as upper low over the Great Basin this morning moves east.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Upper level high pressure centered in the vicinity of west central Mexico will maintain north to northeast flow aloft over deep south TX through the period as southeasterly onshore flow continues at the low levels. Showers will slowly migrate farther inland around sunrise and after before giving way to an enhanced sea breeze that will carry showers, along with some isolated thunderstorms, westward across the lower and mid valley through midday. Overnight lows will be near normal values the next two nights with high temperatures Tuesday afternoon running just a few degrees above normal from the lower 90s at the coast with mid 90s to around 103 inland.
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Upper low which was over SE TX yesterday has become ill-defined and barely discernible in GOES-R imagery this afternoon, though a well defined and relatively sharp MSTR gradient remains over E TX and down into the WRN Gulf. GOES-R TPW product aligns with model data in depicting 2+ inches over the entire forecast area, as a long and steady fetch of tropical moisture continues to stream into the region around a SFC/low level ridge over the SE CONUS/WRN Atlantic. The low to mid level ridge to the east is forecast to build a bit WWD, while a ridge aloft over NRN MX/W TX builds eastward. Lows will continue in the low/mid 70s.
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area, maintaining fair weather through Tuesday, with temperatures slightly above normal. Upper ridge center remains in place near the Carolina/Mid Atlantic coast, with upper low near the Gulf coast, providing a S to SW flow aloft which is allowing some upper level convective debris cloudiness to stream into our region. Upper ridge and associated mid level subsidence inversion, along with a dry low to mid level atmosphere, will suppress convection over most of our FA.
Temperatures range from the low 80s to 90 across the island chain. Otherwise, expect lows near 80 with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s as the western ridge axis of the Bermuda High sinks southward to the middle Florida Peninsula.
130 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A strong ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the region this week.
633 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather will continue into the evening as an upper ridge maintains its influence. However, a developing weakness in the ridge and a cold front approaching from the north will support modestly-increasing chances for showers and storms late in the tonight period. Maxima will be only slightly cooler than those today, with humidity leading to comparable apparent temperature. The cold front will stall overnight, draped across the region from nw to se. A broad upper trough is expected to advance across the nrn CONUS through the week, maintaining daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
ridge, there will continue to be little in the way of focusing mechanisms for widespread convection. At the beginning of this period the weak upper ridge will still be in place over the area, while at the surface we will be in a very weak return flow from the Gulf.
323 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The upper level low which was over East Texas for the last couple of days has become poorly defined and does not show up well in water vapor imagery.
324 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 An area of high pressure will remain centered along the east coast for the next few days, keeping a southerly flow across the region. It will be a warm and muggy night as lows will only fall to the lower 70s for most of the area. The lower Scioto Valley and ne KY could see lows in the upper 60s. Expect highs to be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday, in the upper 80s, as a little more cloud cover and pcpn coverage. A cold front moving through on Monday will bring an end to the precipitation and a pattern shift.
159 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
Tonight a vigorous low pressure system will push in from the southwest, bringing an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms as well as gusty east to southeast winds. By Tuesday morning, dry air will begin to wrap into the low pressure system overhead, causing a decrease in precipitation coverage.
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain in control of our weather bringing warm and dry conditions through this evening. On Tuesday, a cold front will drop into the area from Canada bringing showers and thunderstorms.
The low clouds are starting to lift and scatter out. The low clouds that were in place this morning are lifting. High pressure ridging over the state will remain through the period with no headlines, but showers and thunderstorms remaining the main hazard.
131 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A trough will lift away from the area today, resulting in slightly warmer conditions and sunnier skies compared to yesterday.
102 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue through the overnight hours with lows running in the lower to mid 70s. Rain chances will begin to decline from mid to late week with the upper level ridge exerting more control over the region especially over east Texas where the influence of the ridge will be stronger. Otherwise, mainly isolated diurnal convection will serve as the only relief from the heat and humidity as high temperatures creep up into the lower 90s and possibly even the mid 90s in some areas by late week into the weekend. The ridge will deflect disturbances away from the region as it orients more east-west along the Gulf coast region by this weekend.
A weakness in the upper level ridge combined with daytime heating has allowed scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon, with the greatest coverage at this time across eastern and southern portions of the area. On Tuesday, low- level ridging is off to our east giving us southerly flow.
A warm and humid airmass prevailing across the Southeast and a weaker (slightly cooler) cap (~700 mb) noted on area RAOBs will increase the potential for primarily diurnally driven thunderstorms this afternoon. Overall wx pattern remains fairly stagnant into the middle of the week, with the subtropical ridge remaining in place over the srn Atlantic while upper ridging continues to build across the region.
The unseasonably cold upper low over the Great Basin will continue northeast into the northern Rockies tomorrow. The associated cold front will sweep east across the area today, resulting in significantly colder and windy conditions across Utah and southwest Wyoming.
1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A deep layer ridge will remain anchored in the southeastern U. Temperatures today look a tad warmer than yesterday. Increasing low level moisture/dew points in response to southerly flow around the western periphery of the low level anticyclone will result in slightly higher humidity than yesterday, but not quite as high as some of the deterministic solutions prog.
/issued 327 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ Hot weather pattern to continue with upper ridge to the east and SW flow aloft across the region. Things get a little more interesting Tuesday as upper low over the northern Rockies lifts northeastward into the Northern Plains late Tuesday. Tail end of this upper trof will result in: increasing flow aloft.
Seeing some BKN CIGS over portions of the lower/mid valley, but similar to yesterday, clouds are in the VFR category where they will remain through the afternoon. /issued 405 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): South Texas will remain between the weak cutoff lo along the SE Texas coast and the H5 ridge trying to build into the region from the west. Southeast winds at the surface continue to bring shallow moisture into the lowest layers, but still not enough today for anything more than scattered clouds. Tuesday will be a conflict between deep dry air aloft and the arrival of some dense moisture in the lower levels.
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
404 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A ridge aloft will remain over the area through mid-week.
620 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
256 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Dry southwest flow aloft will remain over the area tonight, and will transition to westerly flow on Tue, as an upper level low moves from southwestern ID today, into central MT on Tue. High temps on Tue are expected to be a little cooler, and closer to average. RH values Tue afternoon will be below 15 percent at the lower elevations, and the with the winds being gusty in many areas, the weather conditions will reach critical levels in many locations.
348 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains parked to the SE of the region. Again the biggest issue will be heavy rain given the higher PWATs and continued deep warm layer. Amplified western trough-eastern ridge pattern will shift to opposite extremes, allowing for a low amplitude mean trough to set up across the eastern CONUS.
The closed low continues to exit stage right tonight with showers lingering over the west side and tapering off overnight into Tuesday as the zonal flow pattern shifts to a building weak ridge.
325 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Continuing with a near-persistence forecast through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region.
Upper low over the Great Basin and southwest flow east into the central CONUS is dominating the upper levels this morning. This should bring another day of highs in the lower 90s and combine with dewpoints around 70 for apparent temps to reach the mid 90s to around 102. There are some signals of low cloud developing farther northwest tonight and have suggested increasing clouds in the east late in the night but dry conditions with lows again in the low to mid 70s should persist as the upper low enters the Rockies.
Axis of high pressure ridge is forecast to sag a little south with the wind flow in the lower levels becoming southeast.
Satellite derived PW fields show quite a moisture gradient across SE TX this morning with the higher moisture confined to areas east of I45.
Broad upper/mid level ridging remains over the Southeastern U. Locally, temperatures were quite mild with readings in the low to mid 70s.
318 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Long duration dry spell showing signs of ending this afternoon as upstream water vapor imagery continues to highlight an anomalously deep upper low pressure system over the Intermountain West.
144 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Heavy snow continues early this morning along and north of I-94, with precip turning to rain south across east central MN and west central WI due to slightly warmer air up to 5000 ft.
530 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Surface map has the deep low pressure system that gave the area rain and snow overnight into today now over Lake Huron. Blustery and colder this afternoon in the wake of the low with temperatures as of 1 PM ranging from the upper 20s to lower 40s. For tonight, high pressure will build into the region from the central Canadian Provinces/Northern Plains. High pressure begins to shift east of the area Sunday night as low pressure organizes on the leeside of the central Rocky Mountains.
412 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Cold front moved through the Panhandles by late this morning and early this afternoon. As a result, the GFS keeping the western and central portions of the forecast area much warmer in the 60s with the eastern portions not getting out of the 40s all day Sunday. Some recovery may be possible Sunday afternoon in the west, however feel the northeast half or two- thirds will remain in the much cooler air through most of the day. Sunday has the potential for big temperature bust across the western and central portions of the Panhandles depending on how long the cooler air hangs on through Sunday afternoon.
High pressure that gave us a chilly early morning in the 30s was moving off to the east.
347 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Early afternoon satellite showed the system responsible for last night's snow quickly developing in to a mature mid-latitude cyclone.
Dry conditions are expected tonight into Sunday, with high pressure passing by to the southwest.
156 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Surface map has the deep low pressure system that gave the area rain and snow overnight into today now over Lake Huron. Blustery and colder this afternoon in the wake of the low with temperatures as of 1 PM ranging from the upper 20s to lower 40s. For tonight, high pressure will build into the region from the central Canadian Provinces/Northern Plains. High pressure begins to shift east of the area Sunday night as low pressure organizes on the leeside of the central Rocky Mountains.