Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A positively-tilted trough will continue to steer disturbances across the mid Mississippi Valley throughout the short term. A larger disturbance will eject from the base of the trough and head northeastward late tonight, reaching the Upper Midwest Saturday.
Latest RAP analysis shows around 250 j/kg Cape around Bismarck to around 750 j/kg near Linton/Selfridge area. Better rain chances remain just east of Bismarck and Linton/Selfridge area into the James River Valley.
For now, will keep the higher pops confined to northeast Oklahoma, with lower pops as far south as McAlester and Fort Smith. The frontal boundary will likely sag very slowly south with time, as an upper trough remains in place just to our west.
148 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure maintains mainly dry and warm weather through Saturday.
Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. By late afternoon, a cold front will move into north Texas while a dryline sharpens across the Trans-Pecos region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop to our west, along the dryline, with additional storms developing along the cold front. After weeks of large-scale ridging, a trough will set up over the northern Plains and put much of the south-central US in southwest flow aloft.
Highs will reach the low to upper 80s with lows dropping down into the low 70s.
250 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over eastern SD, with secondary cool front mainly south and east of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows very slow moving trough across the northern and central high Plains. Temps are mostly in the 60s to mid 70s, with some 50s over the higher Black Hills. Unsettled and cool conditions will persist through the weekend as the upper trough only slowly moves south and east across the region.
Showers/storms will then continue to develop, move into, and across parts of the area tonight into Saturday morning, with the highest chances generally north of I-40.
1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Today will be the beginning of a transition to a much more active pattern as a cold front slowly pushes southward into our area later today and begins to stall through the weekend. By late in the afternoon, CAM guidance is in good agreement on extensive thunderstorm development along the length of the cold front from the TX panhandle east-northeastward into northern OK and southern KS.
Otherwise clouds will increase tonight as low pressure approaches from the Central Plains.
To the south, behind the warm front, the theta-e ridge is starting to nose up into the area, increasing instability. This zone should become coincident with the low-level jet as it increases over northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio this afternoon and evening. High pressure will push up from the southeast on Saturday, and the axis of heavy rain should lift somewhat to the northwest, but will still impact northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan.
1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure remains centered near the local area through the weekend, as a weak trough lingers off the southeast coast. Weakening trough will remain over the area into Saturday afternoon. Warmer temperatures with higher humidity are expected Saturday.
will be afternoon temps in the low/mid 90s again with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s across the CWA. The higher of these values look to be across parts of Northeast Oklahoma and as such will continue the current Heat Advisory.
235 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Atlantis high pressure will direct an onshore flow into the area. The strong ridge offshore continues to be the primary control for the pattern for Friday. Thanks to the increasing moisture and differential heating, a coastal trough may form and push inland a bit this afternoon. There's a decent cap and sufficient dry to prevent any widespread showers associated with this weak trough. With the onshore moisture return aloft and high pressure behind the coastal trough strengthening the low level inversion, a stratus event appears likely for Saturday morning. An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build westward to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday.
235 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Early afternoon GOES-W WV/IR imagery showed a 594dm 500mb high centered near the southwest coast of British Columbia, with a downstream trough from the Dakotas into the central Rockies.
For tonight through Saturday night, the ops models and hi-res models show an upper level low pressure trough dominating our weather with several weak short waves moving over our region. Saturday may be a few degrees cooler with a cool front dropping through tonight along with some lower stratus clouds.
have adjusted the high temps down a couple degrees with the forecast already behind prev forecast hourly trends. Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the eastern periphery of 591dam ridge resulting in northerly flow aloft. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing across our CWA from the northeast resulting in a southeast low level flow across our CWA. Most sites reached the lower 90s yesterday. Temperatures are expected to top out slightly cooler today ranging from the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west. /22/ This weekend: The weather pattern will feature an upper trough extending from the upper Midwest into the southwestern CONUS being held in check by mid/upper ridging extending from the Deep South into the northern Atlantic.
Northerly flow aloft will continue today as an anomalous upper level ridge builds over British Columbia.
Overnight temperatures range from the lower 70s in the Delta, to the upper 60s in east central MS.
246 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Northerly flow aloft will dominate the weather over eastern Montana through the weekend as a very strong upper ridge of high pressure surges into the Pacific northwest.
1213 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 (Today and tonight) The ridge will remain over the area today, keeping our weather quiet and hot.
There is an upper level trough that extends from a 250mb low over Hudson Bay into the Four Corners, amplified by a strong upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The trough axis will be centered over Nebraska by this evening. An 850 mb trough also extends from the northern plains into Nebraska, which will continue to progress east over the next couple of days, becoming centered over Iowa tomorrow morning. Thundershowers will continue on Saturday as moisture from the low over Iowa wraps around into Nebraska. Models indicate that the previously mentioned upper level trough will be slow moving as it progresses east, extending over Nebraska and the Central Plains through the week.
321 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Current surface analysis is showing a low level boundary/warm front situated across northwestern IA this afternoon. The remainder of the CWA may remain primarily dry into at least Saturday afternoon, with a slightly better chance toward our western CWA where the upper level trough axis resides. Lows tonight will be mild - in the lower to mid 60s. As the upper level trough slowly nudges eastward on Saturday and skies remain mostly cloudy, temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A positively tilted trough develops to the west over eastern South Dakota to northern Mexico by Saturday morning.
Higher dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s and low level stratus has been noted west of this boundary, with the stratus gradually eroding over interior southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi, and completely eroded closer to the coast. Regional 12z soundings suggested that much of the moisture across western areas was confined to the lowest few km of the atmosphere with notable dry air aloft. The highest potential for showers and storms this afternoon will be along coastal portions of Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle northwest into southeast Mississippi, where there is better moisture available. Otherwise, forcing mechanisms remain weak with an upper low well east over the northern Florida Peninsula. This is supported by much of the high resolution model guidance and is likely a result of slightly drier conditions.
Saturday will see another short wave trough move SSE into eastern ND and likely cause additiona showers to form, especially in areas that get any sun. A negatively tilted trough will remain stagnant over our area, blocked by two high pressure systems to our west and (eventually) east.
We had a warmer start this morning and some hourly temps/dew points were a couple/few degrees higher than forecast so will make a few adjustments to those gridded fields.
The deep layer shear is only marginal, and the low level shear is very weak, so that will limit the severe weather threat and in fact SPC only has general thunder outlooked across the region both today and Saturday. The upper pattern will be blocky with a strong ridge slowly moving eastward across the western CONUS and Canada, with another upper ridge off the east coast. In between a positively tilted trough will be squeezed and elongated. Temperatures will not change much through the period due to the stagnant pattern with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
133 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure remains centered near the local area through the weekend, as a weak trough lingers off the southeast coast. Weakening trough will remain over the area into Saturday afternoon. Warmer temperatures with higher humidity are expected Saturday.
A low pressure system is expected to lift from the lower Ohio River Valley into the norther Great Lakes today within quasi-zonal flow aloft. Strong sfc ridging should shunt the low far enough north/west to keep the forecast area dry, though far eastern OH may experience enough heating/jet support to yield an isolated thunderstorm. A hot and humid weekend is on tap as the southeastern ridge strengthens in response to a slightly deepening central U.
This is on the south side of remnant MCV, with enhancement from the upper trough. Although the highest instability axis has shifted south of the area with the front, decent low level moisture persists and latest SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Fortunately, the cooler and increasingly dry airmass will reduce the risk for severe weather across the local area.
204 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure maintains mainly dry and warm weather through Saturday.
1139 AM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict upper trough axis centered across central MT into SW WY with broadly cyclonic flow across the Northern Plains. The surface cold front has surged southward into NE, bending back northward through northeastern WY. These showers will slowly work across the area this morning as trough axis pivots eastward. Upper divergence along with embedded perturbations along the trough axis will support continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through today. Today will be cooler behind the front, with rain and clouds helping to limit high temperatures to the upper 60s to around mid 70s today. An anomalously strong upper ridge will be in place across the Pacific NW, supporting record temperatures through the weekend while the Northern Plains will be under the stubborn influence of the upper trough.
The upper-level pattern remains in a blocking regime this weekend and even into the new week, keeping periods of showers and storms possible.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley through the rest of the afternoon into this evening as an elongated 500mb ridge across south Texas and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas. /issued 320 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure initially centered over the Arklatex region will rapidly shift west as an inverted mid-level trough approaches from the east.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ High pressure to the east across the Appalachians to maintain southerly flow across the region through the short-term period ending Saturday night. Upper-ridge across the region to suppress convection to some degree. Otherwise, expect afternoon high temperatures on Saturday to climb into the lower to mid 90s allowing for afternoon heat index values to approach 105 degrees.
Upper level ridging continues building in today over the south-central U. Meanwhile, an upper level low/trough slowly moves west across the northern Gulf of Mexico today into Saturday. Our upper level ridge shifts to the northeast by Saturday, maintaining northeasterly flow aloft over the region. Even with the development of storms, they should remain generally weaker than the previous couple of days owing to the synoptic descent associated with the building ridge and prevalence of dry mid to upper level airmass. Highs tomorrow should be more uniform and warmer, with generally upper 80's expected.
Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. By late afternoon, a cold front will move into north Texas while a dryline sharpens across the Trans-Pecos region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop to our west, along the dryline, with additional storms developing along the cold front.
121 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Mid/Upper low centered just east of Cedar Key with dry air on west side and deep moisture to the east. Upper low near Cedar Key will move into the Central Gulf of Mexico Saturday as another upper low approaching the northern Bahamas.
256 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Overview: Troughing /cyclonic flow/ aloft will prevail over the central CONUS. downstream of an amplifying ridge along the Pacific coast. and upstream of an amplifying ridge along the Mid- Atlantic/Southeast coast. Sat-Sat night: Troughing /cyclonic flow/ is anticipated to shift eastward into the Northern/Central Plains. Guidance shows an upper trough extending from the northern Plains southwest towards the Desert Southwest. To the west, an area of high pressure prevails in the Pacific Northwest while another high spins over the east coast.
Plenty of sunshine has been present across the Northern Rockies today, along with cumulus clouds building off the ridgetops in our surrounding terrain.
A few updates were made this morning to update the sky cover, reflecting the higher cirrus overhead and the marine layer clouds along the coast.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout the region this afternoon with convection gradually moving towards the west in conjunction with an upper level trough axis that is expected to be west of the forecast area by this evening. The remnants of the frontal boundary to the north will steadily withdraw to the northwest tonight with the southeasterly flow steadily becoming more out of the east as the influence of the upper level trough axis over the region wanes. Low temperatures for tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s along the coast.
314 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 (Issued 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021) Tonight and Saturday: Subsidence behind the departing MCV has allowed some modest destabilization ahead of stationary trough of low pressure over northern IL and through central IA. Rain will continue until shortly after dawn and come to an end as the warm front lifts northward.
The upper pattern for the next few days will feature a persistent ridge over the Mid Atlantic states and a trough extending from the Southern Rockies to the Western Great Lakes.
327 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Upper level high pressure will dominate the pattern for the region for the next few days.
Low pressure centered near Hudson Bay will drag a cold front along our western periphery, resulting in deformation which is allowing for ongoing convection this afternoon. Strong sfc ridging east of that boundary should shunt the low far enough north/west to keep most of the forecast area dry. A hot and humid weekend is on tap as the southeastern ridge strengthens in response to a slightly deepening central U.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): An elongated 500mb ridge across south Texas will separate a 500mb trough across the west-central United States and an inverted 500mb trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. The inverted upper level trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move westward across the central Gulf Saturday into the western Gulf Sat night. South Texas will be on the subsident side of the inverted trough but low to mid level moisture will increase across the western Gulf of Mexico to warrant a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters of the lower Texas coast Sat night. Temperatures will be slighlty warmer Sat afternoon compared to today but heat index values should remain below heat advisory criteria across deep south Texas except across southern portions of Starr County on Saturday.
An upper level high pressure system will persist over the region through Saturday, then retrogrates/dissipates as an upper level inverted trough approaches from the east (western Gulf of Mexico), and as another upper trough approaches from the NW. Deterministic runs predict a region of copious moisture, associated with the foregoing upper trough approaches from the east, to approach the CWA Saturday night.
Ridging over the weekend keeps weather quiet, but a warming trend introduces the possibility of record- breaking highs during the week.
Isolated thunderstorm chances remain possible along the high terrain on Saturday.
The cirrus should persist overnight; some scattered lower clouds can't be ruled out, but there is no sign of organized lift in the lower levels to create much more than that.
For Tonight - upper 60s and lingering stratus clouds are most likely along ans south east of the synoptic boundary, with best change for some clearing in the western counties where cooler air will be working southward overnight as the front surges southward and rain cooled air. Coolest signal looks over the west central Kansas counties where an overall signal from the models and MOS suggest highs capped int he upper 70s, while upper 80s is more likely still over the lower plains counties in the eastern and south central Kansas counties. It looks like the forcing from the upper trough moving though the central and southern Rockies will aid in pushing drier air over the area, and in effect the convergent surface boundary southward into Oklahoma.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: Overnight temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the Delta, to the upper 60s in east central MS.
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Current surface analysis is showing a low level boundary/warm front situated across northwestern IA this afternoon. The remainder of the CWA may remain primarily dry into at least Saturday afternoon, with a slightly better chance toward our western CWA where the upper level trough axis resides. Lows tonight will be mild - in the lower to mid 60s. As the upper level trough slowly nudges eastward on Saturday and skies remain mostly cloudy, temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
An upper level trough is moving east across the Rockies and into the High Plains sending a cold front across the Tri-State area this evening. Shear is currently at the higher end of the range east of KS Hwy-25 where CAPE is also a little better. The SW to NE oriented upper level trough will continue to push into the forecast area; however, high pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep the trough axis over the NE panhandle. Temperatures are expected to be cooler tomorrow with highs in the 70s and overnight lows returning to the 50s. Guidance shows an upper trough extending from the northern Plains southwest towards the Desert Southwest. To the west, an area of high pressure prevails in the Pacific Northwest while another high spins over the east coast.
311 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Great precipitation event for many areas the past 24 hours across western and central Wyoming, along with much cooler temperatures and breezy north wind. The primary area of stratiform rain has moved to southeast WY this afternoon as the trough axis also moves SE. Unstable moist northerly flow follows the trough, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing just after 10am this morning, mainly over the mountains and southwest WY. With the trough axis moving to western NE into eastern CO overnight, and the large ridge over the Pacific Northwest developing, WY will stay in cool northerly flow on Saturday.
Temperatures will gradually warm up today breaking the triple digits in some of our warmer valleys with slightly cooler temperatures east of the Cascades and a cool upper 70's along the Oregon coast.
VFR conditions with some high clouds expected as a ridge of high pressure builds slightly westward across the Atlantic Seaboard.
Ceilings will typically range from 1500 to 2500 feet with the lowest ceilings expected at KMCB, KBTR, KHDC, and KASD where the inversion will be strongest. /issued 327 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/ Upper level high pressure will dominate the pattern for the region for the next few days.
Have also tapped max temps 1 to 3 degrees cooler for Saturday with cloud cover remaining in place for most of the day. A positively tilted trough develops to the west over eastern South Dakota to northern Mexico by Saturday morning.
Saturday will see another short wave trough move SSE into eastern ND and likely cause additional showers to form, especially in areas that get any sun. A negatively tilted trough will remain stagnant over our area, blocked by two high pressure systems to our west and (eventually) east.
715 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Upper low continues to spin in NE Gulf providing extra lift for widespread afternoon thunderstorms wrapping into the NE Gulf this evening. /issued 121 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021/ Mid/Upper low centered just east of Cedar Key with dry air on west side and deep moisture to the east. Upper low near Cedar Key will move into the Central Gulf of Mexico Saturday as another upper low approaching the northern Bahamas.
Precipitable water values across the region are comparable to yesterday's readings with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 40s to even the low 50s. Shower activity will redevelop by midday Saturday and continue throughout the day, focused along the Continental Divide as the base of the upper level trough remains centered to the east. An exception will be across the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southern valleys which will remain under the influence of the base of the aforementioned positively-tilted trough through Saturday night, enhancing shower coverage. The below normal trend will continue through the short term period with values running 4 to 8 degrees cooler during the day and by 2 to 4 degrees cooler at night. A large area of high pressure, centered over southeast British Columbia, will engulf much of the northwest half of the U.
This low will track along that aforementioned frontal boundary, lifting north as a warm front to along I-90 by Saturday morning. Increasing moisture transport ahead of the low and into the warm front is expected to spread showers and storms into the area tonight. The showers and storms look to be fairly widespread going into Saturday as the low tracks through southern WI. In addition, with the low track, could see a small window of strong to severe storms in the warm sector across portions of northeast IA into southern WI where greater chance of destabilization takes place. Through much of this period, a longwave trough will remain across the region. Low temperatures will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
1019 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure maintains mainly dry and warm weather through Saturday.
Lows in the lower 70s over the interior, mid 70s at the coast.
759 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Atlantic high pressure will direct an onshore flow into the area. Convection near our SE FA along an inverted trough/sea breeze in the process of dissipating per latest radar loops. An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build westward to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday.
717 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Early afternoon GOES-W WV/IR imagery showed a 594dm 500mb high centered near the southwest coast of British Columbia, with a downstream trough from the Dakotas into the central Rockies.