Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS FORCED BY MOVEMENT OF A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AND DEWPOINTS ARE UP IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO A STEADY EAST BREEZE. A BROKEN BAND OF SHALLOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN DETECTED BY KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL GOVERN. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A cold front has moved through all but FST as of 01/17Z with gusty NE winds and a SCT/BKN MVFR cloud deck in its wake. It looks like it will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today across the Big Bend.
928 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
205 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2015 A strong cold front was sweeping across the forecast area early this afternoon, with temperatures rapidly dropping in its wake as brisk northwest winds usher in a much colder airmass. Expect temperatures to continue to fall into the 20s by this evening, eventually dropping into the low to mid teens by Monday morning. With upstream obs across Nebraska already in the low single digits, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that a few locations across southeastern Kansas may flirt with sub-10 degree lows. The best chance for light snow late this evening will be across Central Missouri as the upper level trough axis swings through.
AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH A DRY STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THRU WED BUT FLATTENS THIS AFTN AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER IT. THE NEXT WAVE TO CREST THE RIDGE SENDS A WARM FRONT THRU NRN UT LATE MON AND BRINGS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO A LITTLE MORE OF THE NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE NRN CWA AGAIN LATE TUE THRU EARLY WED WITH PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP FROM ABOUT PROVO NORTH BEFORE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND SHUTS OFF PRECIP WED NIGHT.
43 INCHES OF PW WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE RAIN SHIELD GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT.
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE STRUGGLES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST.
1030 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015 The cold front has entered western Missouri during the past hour. Low pressure currently located over the area is strengthening and there is a widespread area of increasing pressure rises across Kansas. This intensification will result in windy conditions behind the advancing cold front, with frequent gusts to 35 mph. Brief loss of cloud ice will need to be monitored, which would result in a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle depending upon surface temperatures. A cold front will bring a colder air mass through southern Missouri today, allowing for that change over to snow.
LOOK FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING 7-DAY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS. MAIN IMPACT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING HOW PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE ON A DAY-TO- DAY BASIS. THOUGH MUCH WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS LOWER LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH INCREASING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 500 TO 300 HPA LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CANADIAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 6-12 MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. TODAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
120 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AREAS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT IN CENTRAL OREGON SO PLAN ON EITHER CANCELING OR LETTING THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.
328 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA.
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AREA. FREEZING LEVELS SLOWLY LOWER EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS COLD AIR USHERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. UP TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS NEW WIND ADVISORY IS DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
307 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE LED TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY MON MORNING. THE NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. KETCHAM THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THU BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS.
1240 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
130 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
1252 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TODAY AND INTENSIFY. THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING.
The cold front has entered western Missouri during the past hour. Low pressure currently located over the area is strengthening and there is a widespread area of increasing pressure rises across Kansas. This intensification will result in windy conditions behind the advancing cold front, with frequent gusts to 35 mph. Brief loss of cloud ice will need to be monitored, which would result in a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle depending upon surface temperatures. A cold front will bring a colder air mass through southern Missouri today, allowing for that change over to snow.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WORK WEEK.
334 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ADDNL SNW SHWRS ARE EXPD MON AS THE UPR TROF AXIS CROSSES AND STRONG COLD ADVCTN SETS UP. BUT MSTR THINS QUICKLY IN THE SNW GROWTH RGN WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ARND A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE RIDGES. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TWO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
1142 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK.
241 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2015 Strong cold front continues to push southward across the forecast area today. Snow is lightening up as of middle afternoon, and as the upper trof axis is now overhead and pushing eastward, expect snow to continue to lighten and come to an end over the next several hours. Will monitor conditions, as if temperatures are even a few degrees cooler than forecast, may need a Wind Chill advisory for the northern counties around sunrise. Forecast highs on Monday are 20s far northeast to around freezing in the west, although should at least see some sunshine for a while during the morning and early afternoon.
231 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR ST. A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WAS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN/ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTH ALABAMA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. A WEAK SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY AROUND 09Z.
Have left inherited forecast highs in that area alone but there is the potential for high temperatures to be at least several degrees cooler than what is currently forecast. Did not have enough confidence that it will cooler to change the highs. with some patchy freezing fog over North Central MT. possibly mixing with rain/freezing rain in the valleys of Southwest MT by 12z Monday morning.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE TROF ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. BUT SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN IOWA DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH NEARS. ONE WEATHER ITEM THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IS WARMER TEMPS.
At this time, it appears up to an inch of snow is possible, mainly over the higher elevations of the MO Ozarks. High pressure works in, west to east, during the planning period, leading to an eventual clearing later tmrw am into the pm hours, when winds lose their gustiness and begin to relax some from their early peak.
1038 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 CURRENTLY - THE FLORIDA KEYS LAY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF A LARGE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THEY ARE MORE BACKED AND WEAKER OVER OUR COOLER GULF SIDE WATERS. AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL PULL FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AND WEAKER AND BACKED TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON OUR COOLER GULF SIDE WATERS.
A low pressure system over the Lower Mississippi Valley, will likely bring rain to the northwest part of the CWA overnight. Strong southerly flow ahead of the low is bringing a warm, moist air mass into the region. As the cold front moves closer expect an increase in cloud cover with rain possible overnight particularly in the northwestern areas.
709 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE H85 FLOW. WE FORECASTED THE HIGHER CHANCE EARLY.
THE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THAT MOVE EAST OF A STRONG LOW MEANDERING OVER NV AND CA INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
840 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT EXTENDING BACK WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. /ISSUED 330 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT IN THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
844 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THIS EVENING. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OVER THE CWA CONTINUES WITH A TONGUE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BASICALLY JUMPING WEST OF THE RIDGES UP INTO THE PITTSBURGH AREA STILL AT THIS HOURS. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF FREEZING UP OF SURFACE WATER FROM ANY MELTING OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS EAST OF PITTSBURGH AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. AND IS NOW PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE RIDGES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. AND WILL LIKELY COMMENCE IN THE RIDGES BEFORE TOO LONG. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS THIS EVENING AS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES ACROSS THESE COOLER WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS OCCURING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
926 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO ND. TROUGH WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
906 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH BORDER ON SUNDAY.
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
742 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER MICHIGAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEK.
1024 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE H85 FLOW. WE FORECASTED THE HIGHER CHANCE EARLY.
DUE TO WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THIS BOUNDARY NOW UP IN N CENTRAL GA AND SC. IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WET ROADS RE-FREEZING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST. SOME COULD BECOME FREEZING FOG.
941 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 400 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
925 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER MICHIGAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEK.
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ALONG 135W WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE MOISTURE SUPPLY AND ENERGY OF THE TROUGH ARE BOTH VERY LIMITED. THE ARCTIC AIR COMING WITH THE TROUGH IS CREATING HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE WITH LOWER PRESSURE ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST.
524 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 A SPRAWLING H5 TROF ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE U. WITH THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.
522 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THE GENERAL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE CWA CONTINUES WITH A TONGUE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BASICALLY JUMPING WEST OF THE RIDGES UP INTO THE PITTSBURGH AREA. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF FREEZING UP OF SURFACE WATER FROM ANY MELTING OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS EAST OF PITTSBURGH AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN MANY AREAS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH SERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOWER SUSQ AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO THE USUAL POST COLD FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL MAINLY FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE PRESSURE CHANGE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF SURGES IN THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DISRUPT THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL PERSIST AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOME FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. I DON'T SEE THIS AS BEING A BIG CONCERN BECAUSE AREA ROADWAYS ARE STILL VERY WET AND THOSE ALONE WILL LIKELY ICE OVER AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT BUT I WANTED TO MENTION IT NONETHELESS.
THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA FROM NEAR RUSK TX.
851 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 COLD FRONT FROM BRENHAM TEXAS.
742 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES DOWN INTO OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
/ISSUED 330 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT IN THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
532 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED TO OUR SOUTH LAST NIGHT BROUGHT NEW SNOW TO CENTRAL MO AND IL. BEHIND THIS LOW. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FILLING INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY WARMER AND SLOWER WITH THE CAA INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FROM FRANKLIN/ADAMS/YORK COUNTIES SOUTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA IS WHERE THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO KEPT COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE LOWER 3-5K FEET PREVENTING THE CHANGEOVER LINE FROM LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH SERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOWER SUSQ AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO THE USUAL POST COLD FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL MAINLY FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
607 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN TN VALLEY LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WARNING LEVELS. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL NEAR FREEZING BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOW PRESSURE IN MIDDLE TN AND EXTENDING SW ALONG FRONT INTO MS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AROUND 07-14Z LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR AT ALL SITES AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST.
ONLY INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WITH MORE PREVIOUS SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION THERE AND THE ANALYZED WARM FRONT BEING JUST NORTH OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS ALSO ANALYZED FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID 30S. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALSO IN LESSENING THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
A strong cold front will arrive by morning switching winds to the northeast and becoming gusty throughout the day. Rain will likely change over to freezing rain just beyond this TAF period.
621 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE H85 FLOW. WE FORECASTED THE HIGHER CHANCE EARLY.
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
IT IS WARMER RIGHT NOW IN HALEYVILLE IN THE NORTHWEST AS IT IS IN EUFAULA IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
It looks like it will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today across the Big Bend.