Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The day started around 30 degrees for most, with temperatures now in the lower 20s. This is important because the snow that fell through the day was mostly slushy, and a lot melted when it settled onto above-freezing roadways. Overnight tonight some areas of fog may develop, which for now does not appear to be widely dense, but could see some areas of dense fog, and with temperatures well-below freezing some of this fog could freeze to surfaces, leading to even more slick conditions. The exception to that will be far northeast Missouri for Sunday evening, as another trough from the N/NW glances the area as it dives south.
The main concern in the short term is strong downslope winds across the higher elevations and eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau, and resulting blowing snow. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas with the highest confidence for significant blowing snow. Winds switch out of the northwest following a sfc pressure trough Sunday morning. The inversion will still be present however, and this could lead to light freezing rain showers *if* precipitation can reach the surface (dry low-levels). Patchy blowing snow is possible, but warmer temperatures with highs in the 30s over the new snow cover should limit this. The long wave pattern according to ensemble data suggests some persistence in a mid-level ridge near the west coast, with downstream troffing over the central and eastern conus.
322 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Ridging across the western US will continue this weekend, keeping a dry northwest flow aloft over Wyoming.
That bears repeating: **OUCH** The theme so far has centered on giant snowflakes, high snowfall rates, heavy wet snow, and model guidance that remains significantly warmer than what has been observed thusfar. A thin band of SN/RA/PL resides between the two and continues marching east/southeast with time and patchy freezing drizzle is also occurring. Earlier concerns about marginal temperatures across eastern zones have all but vanished given the likelihood of further increasing CAA as the parent cyclone to our east deepens in earnest overnight. Add to that the high likelihood of additional snow banding across portions of north-central, northeast, central, and east-central (and perhaps even south-central/southeast AR) and a notable increase in forecast snow accumulation is warranted for the overnight hours.
Clipper system will push southeast through the region tonight, bringing an associated cold front and resultant wind shift to the northwest. Current surface analysis place trough stretching through northern Manitoba into central Saskatchewan, while high stretches from the central plains through the upper midwest over the Great Lakes. Upper level analysis places places compact low near the eastern Texas/Oklahoma border, with broad ridge over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies, though a few short waves are noticed in the flow.
High pressure across the region will allow for dry and quiet conditions for the Silver State to persist through the next few days. Upper level high pressure remains over northern California this afternoon with a cutoff low just southwest of southern California. Dewpoints have risen slightly through the early afternoon hours and so have included patchy freezing fog in the grids for the overnight. Look for the ridge to continue for tomorrow, with dry conditions and light winds.
the upper level low that impacted the area yesterday will continue to track southeast away from the area, while high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Temperatures tonight will range from the single digits over the San Luis Valley, to 30s along the Eastern Mountain mid slopes, to teens over the lower Arkansas River Valley. A cold front associated with a system passing well to the northeast will back into the Plains late Sunday afternoon, bringing an easterly wind shift.
The Rex block that has kept the region under a very stable ridge pattern with very little mixing in the valleys across the region continues.
627 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 Aviation Quiet but cold pattern continues as dry Arctic air mass and surface ridging dominate.
312 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Key Messages: - Blowing snow on the Buffalo Ridge tonight with gusts around 45 mph.
348 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 The main concern in the short term is strong downslope winds across the higher elevations and eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau, and resulting blowing snow. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas with the highest confidence for significant blowing snow. Winds switch out of the northwest following a sfc pressure trough Sunday morning. The inversion will still be present however, and this could lead to light freezing rain showers *if* precipitation can reach the surface (dry low-levels). Patchy blowing snow is possible, but warmer temperatures with highs in the 30s over the new snow cover should limit this. The long wave pattern according to ensemble data suggests some persistence in a mid-level ridge near the west coast, with downstream troffing over the central and eastern conus.
558 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 The snow has wound down across much of the area as the upper low continues to dig southeastward through the Southern Plains. Diminishing winds tonight as weak high pressure becomes prevalent should combine with the clearing skies and fresh snow cover to make for a chilly night and generally went below guidance with temps, especially northern areas with lows in the single digits.
An area of low pressure will continue to move north and eastward up the California coast bringing a chance of light precipitation to southwest Kern County this evening.
Regional radar mosaic showing some decent echos dropping south out of Canada, with a few sfc observations showing snow and/or freezing drizzle/light freezing rain. Went with mainly snow but may also see some light freezing precipitation some areas with NBM showing some decrease of ice aloft. Clipper system will push southeast through the region tonight, bringing an associated cold front and resultant wind shift to the northwest. Current surface analysis place trough stretching through northern Manitoba into central Saskatchewan, while high stretches from the central plains through the upper midwest over the Great Lakes. Upper level analysis places places compact low near the eastern Texas/Oklahoma border, with broad ridge over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies, though a few short waves are noticed in the flow.
A ridge of high pressure remains the dominant feature near the region this weekend for mostly dry weather along with prevalent night and morning fog.
Moisture will continue to wrap around the departing upper low (currently over the Ark-La-TX) with extensive clouds and some brief flurries/light snow possible across the northeast zones through mid evening. Some very light accumulations are possible on elevated surfaces which may include bridges. Dry/subsident northwest flow aloft will result in a sunny and warmer day Sunday with highs from the lower 50s in the east to the lower 60s in the west. Transient, weak ridging should keep conditions dry throughout North and Central Texas with highs in the upper 50s in North Texas and lower to mid 60s in Central Texas.
525 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Quieter conditions are expected tonight into Sunday as a brief period of high pressure spreads in. Sunday looks to be mostly dry with high pressure lingering through most of the day. Although global models aren't too excited about snow chances, the high resolution models are more supportive of it.
Cold air masses tend to be very short-lived in northwesterly mid to high level flow regimes on the high plains in the absence of snow cover. Sunday will be no exception to this as we expect highs on the warm side of guidance from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
345 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Cold air masses tend to be very short-lived in northwesterly mid to high level flow regimes on the high plains in the absence of snow cover. Sunday will be no exception to this as we expect highs on the warm side of guidance from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
954 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Continued VFR through Sunday with light winds as high pressure filters into the region. /Issued 534 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022/ Very gusty NW winds will relax from W-E tonight as high pressure moves closer.
Afternoon breezes will gradually subside this evening as high pressure nudges into the area. With high pressure in control of the weather on Sunday, expect a milder than average day across the area, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 30s in the Southwestern Valleys to the mid 40s across the plains. /ISSUED 416 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022/ Winds this afternoon will gradually weaken this evening as high pressure slides into the area, bringing a bit of calmer weather to the area for the day on Sunday.
(Tomorrow through Saturday) Skies will be clearing Sunday morning, and temperatures will be much warmer than today, with much lighter winds.
1105 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Made some early evening updates to the low temperatures with readings plummeting after sunset and ahead of the increasing clouds and winds.
812 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Afternoon breezes will gradually subside this evening as high pressure nudges into the area. With high pressure in control of the weather on Sunday, expect a milder than average day across the area, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 30s in the Southwestern Valleys to the mid 40s across the plains. /ISSUED 416 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022/ Winds this afternoon will gradually weaken this evening as high pressure slides into the area, bringing a bit of calmer weather to the area for the day on Sunday.
RMB Current ridge of high pressure anchored over the U. extends its ridge axis well through the central and northern Rocky Mountains and the adjacent high plains region. This continues to provide warmer than average temperatures that we have seen here lately. This seems to be forced by a sweeping low pressure trough from the north.
1219 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 Aviation Quiet but cold pattern continues as dry Arctic air mass and surface ridging dominate.
1013 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Western NOAM ridge will remain in place, supporting downstream active flow with impulses about ever other day. Cold front will arrive Sun morning, with increasing flow and CAA ensuing.
(Today and tonight) A cold start to the morning is expected across West Central Texas, with forecast low temperatures in the low 20s for most locations, with some low lying areas dropping into the upper teens.
Weatherwise, a few adjustments were made to the extent of the low clouds which from the latest satellite image is mainly confined to portions of the Umpqua Basin, but is showing signs of expanding. VFR conditions will prevail initially, then areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog/freezing fog will develop over the inland valleys, especially west of the Cascades, late tonight. The lower conditions will clear to VFR by Sunday afternoon. A thermal trough near the coast will weaken tonight.
1118 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 The snow has wound down across much of the area as the upper low continues to dig southeastward through the Southern Plains. Diminishing winds tonight as weak high pressure becomes prevalent should combine with the clearing skies and fresh snow cover to make for a chilly night and generally went below guidance with temps, especially northern areas with lows in the single digits.
A weak mid level trough will push a surface boundary through the CWA late Sunday morning turning light southwesterly winds out of the northwest picking up to 15-20 mph through the peak heating of the afternoon.
1124 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Quieter conditions are expected tonight into Sunday as a brief period of high pressure spreads in. Ridge of high pressure stretches from northern Missouri into SE Wisconsin this hour and will continue to slowly sag south towards central Illinois this evening. Northeast winds have diminished from earlier in the day, but continue to advect lower dew points into the area, with single digit dew points noted under the upstream ridge axis. Sunday looks to be mostly dry with high pressure lingering through most of the day. Although global models aren't too excited about snow chances, the high resolution models are more supportive of it.
959 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Made some early evening updates to the low temperatures with readings plummeting after sunset and ahead of the increasing clouds and winds.
1028 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Latest visible satellite analysis and RAP analysis indicates the High Plains in between a departing (eastward) moving low and lee troughing developing over the northern High Plains. High temperature forecast remains on track with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 20s/low 30s to upper 30s, with the cooler temperatures over the eastern CWA which had high clouds linger longer from the departing eastern Kansas storm system. Tonight, mid to high clouds overspread the area from the above mentioned trough as winds become more southwesterly around 10 knots.
Critical thickness method and Bourgouin Method support all snow as surface temperatures fall well below freezing.
143 AM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Pac NW with clipper crossing south central Canada and the Northern Plains. At the surface, trof is pushing into the western Dakotas.
A strong mid and upper-level cyclone near Louisiana and a surface front developing near the mouth of the Mississippi will move southeastward tonight and affect the Gulf Coast States tonight through Sunday. Ahead of the line, southwesterly winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots, followed by west-northwesterly winds as strong or possibly more robust behind the squall line as cold air advection works across SSTs in the lower 70s. Strong south to southwest breezes Sunday morning will shift to the west to northwest Sunday afternoon as squall line and intense cold front moves quickly eastward through the Keys.
946 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Ridging across the western US will continue this weekend, keeping a dry northwest flow aloft over Wyoming.
300 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Light snow is anticipated to sweep through the are this morning as a short wave trough embedded in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft slides through the region. Although chances are low, a freezing drizzle scenario could materialize, but was not confident to include in the forecast at this time. The medium range models continue to suggest the flow will remain locked into a northwest flow regime between an upper level low near Hudsons Bay and ridging along the West Coast. Some short wave troughs will be embedded in this flow and will have the potential to produce some light snow across the region.
Key Message: 1) "Warmer" start to the week, with the return of very cold air midweek.
1024 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022 Little change in the short term period as a closed low remains centered off the California coast and ridging builds into our CWA. maybe a few degrees warmer.
Overnight lows will be warmer than currently, with temps in the lower to middle 20s. Then a cold front drops through the area Wed morning bringing much colder air to the region. Temps will then warm a little for the weekend, but cooler than normal temps are still expected. As of 05Z, ridge of high pressure is in place just north of the terminals, stretching from northern Missouri to Chicago. The ridge will shift south slowly overnight allowing winds to diminish.
1120 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Key Messages: - Blowing snow on the Buffalo Ridge tonight with gusts around 45 mph.
borsum Area is currently sitting on the back edge of the synoptic scale trof covering the central and eastern United States. This is close enough to the action to catch the tail end of disturbances dropping into the trof from western Canada, but too far west to realize any significant impacts other than winds. One disturbance is dropping through eastern MT now, and another stronger wave will move through late tonight dragging some cooler air and some flurry activity for mainly southeast MT overnight into tomorrow morning.
At the sfc today high pressure will continue to move off to the southeast and a cold front will move through later this morning which will turn winds to the northwest. Despite the cold front, the presence of breezier winds will help to mix down warmer temperatures along with the presence of warm air advection.
Temperatures are in the low 30s in these areas. This low pressure center should continue to push off the the east and up the eastern seaboard.
Otherwise, the models show an upper level low pressure trough to our northwest early this morning sliding quickly southeast across the cwa through the morning. There is some weak indications with the models and bufkit soundings that some very light precipitation will fall from these clouds as the short wave trough sweeps southeast across the region this morning. With warm air aloft, wet-bulb cooling, and below freezing surface temperatures, there could be some light freezing rain/ice pellets. Otherwise, as this trough moves by the winds will increase from the northwest becoming windy as the mixing layer deepens today. Areas along and west of the river with less cloud cover and mostly bare ground will still be able to make it into the upper 30s to the lower 40s by late Monday afternoon.
Currently westerly surface winds out ahead of the trough are keeping temps very warm for a mid January night with teens above zero and even some 20s and 30s in the west. The CAMs and synoptic models both show some light precip signal with the cold front today. Winds should be lighter Monday with slightly cooler temps, but still mostly in the positive numbers, which is a win for this time of year. All sites currently VFR, but should see MVFR ceilings moving down behind a cold front later today.
Though this boundary will arrive from the northwest and usher in breezy northwest winds (gusts 25 to 40 mph), it shouldn't be confused with a cold front. The air mass behind the boundary will be both warmer (having originated in a region downsloping flow in Montana) and more humid below 700 mb. Expect high temperatures today to range from the mid 40s in Norfolk, Columbus and Lincoln, to the lower 30s in western Iowa. Freezing fog could be a concern given the below freezing ambient temperatures, and if saturation is deep enough there is a very low risk for patchy freezing drizzle as well (<10% chance).
We should see a quick band of light snow move from NW to SE this afternoon ahead of the trough. High pressure briefly passes to the south Monday afternoon so we should start the day breezy but winds decrease through the day.
High clouds topping the ridge to the west will drift overhead during the period while dry air in the lower levels persists. The blocking pattern to the west begins to break down Monday but will fail to have any impact on sensible weather across the region.
The ridge of high pressure west of Colorado will continue to slowly expand over the region. As for temperatures, they are expected to begin a warming trend, as the airmass under the ridge starts to modify and warm. The eastern plains are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area, though some areas warming into the low 60s can not be ruled out. The ridge of high pressure will still be steadily expanding over the southern Colorado region. There will be an exception to this, as areas immediately adjacent to the eastern mountains and extending to about the I25 corridor will experience low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s, as compressional warming keeps those areas warmer.
Temperatures in the lower troposphere were only marginally cool enough to support snow reaching the surface. Elevation has been key to the higher totals this entire event. During periods of enhanced precipitation rates, slick bridges and overpasses will be a concern.
335 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Key Points: -Clouds and some patchy fog to start today -Warming trend through the first half of the week -Strong cold front and cooler temperatures by mid-week The system that brought a widespread one to four inches of snow has departed the region. A weak front will slide through this morning, which should push out the lower cloud cover and fog as boundary- layer winds increase and dry air enters.
Additional snow accumulation in this band should be an inch or less, but a slight warming of temperatures aloft has us a little concerned about a potential changeover to either sleet and/or freezing rain. Any travel issues should let up by late morning and afternoon as precipitation winds down and temperatures climb above the freezing mark.
Unlike last night, there is no amplified ridge overhead and the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are more moist.
Even these will decrease toward sunrise as the low tracks eastward and we're left entirely under the influence of the ridge. Afternoon temps will be closer to average with low level downslope flow ahead of a weak cold front.
/issued 228 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/ Combination of closed upper low to our southwest and trough moving through central and northern plains will continue to provide sufficient lift for widespread light rain and drizzle overnight. As upper trough moves east late tonight and Sunday most of the light precip is expected to end as lift shifts east and drier air moves into the area. Most areas should see some sun tomorrow with warmer temps and light winds.
/issued 324 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016/ High pressure centered over the southeast plains will gradually filter in drier air into South Florida suppressing all the deeper moisture further south into Keys late this afternoon and early evening lowering the showers activity tonight across South FL.
642 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A front that slipped south of the area last night, will return as a warm front tonight.
Temperatures this morning were in the mid 50s north to the lower 60s across the I-10 corridor to the upper 60s right along the coast. High pressure at the surface and aloft will begin to shift eastward today as upper level troughing develops across the western United States.
The weather pattern will remain dry today as short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. Temperatures will rise significantly today as a prevailing south to southwesterly low level flow draws warmer air into western Kansas with H85 temperatures pushing well above 20C across much of the area. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) this afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible in some areas. Cooler air will filter into SW KS just in time for the beginning of November.
412 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes region will continue drifting east today. Temperatures will be tricky again today as wind in the low levels turns to the south and southwest. Short range guidance is showing that this will advect the low clouds over southwest Missouri back over our area during the morning. MOS Lows in the low to mid 60s look reasonable.
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Upper level ridging builds across the Southeast today, and then amplifies up the East Coast through midweek. Overnight lows have been cooler than expected the past couple nights. With light winds becoming easterly to southeasterly, overnight temps should be warmer, mid 50s to lower 60s.
The weather pattern will remain dry today as short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. Temperatures will rise significantly today as a prevailing south to southwesterly low level flow draws warmer air into western Kansas with H85 temperatures pushing well above 20C across much of the area. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) this afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible in some areas.
110 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure will build into the region overnight, allowing skies to partially clear and temperatures to fall to between 35 and 40 degrees. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures will rise into the lower 50s to around 60 on Monday.
300 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A front that slipped south of the area Sunday night, will return as a warm front tonight.