Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler temperatures for most locations due to more cloud cover and greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms based on the impressive low and mid level theta-e ridge axis. Somewhat drier air works south and west into our counties with negative theta-e advection in the low and mid levels, which should significantly limit the chances for showers and thunderstorms northeast of a Douglas to Kimball line. Somewhat cooler for our western counties, and warmer for our eastern counties.
NW to SE oriented H500 ridge remains in place over the area and will remain that way for most of the period. For Saturday, the mid level ridge will begin to compress a bit and start to sink southwestward. At the sfc, a cold front will begin to make progress into northern parts of the state.
414 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
The pattern aloft is shifting with the trough deamplifying into the Atlantic and the region sitting in the gap between mid-level highs. Looking at the upper levels, another tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is east of the Bahamas, but this feature is not expected to impact our area in the short term forecast period. With the ridge axis situated over the region, light wind flow with a southerly to south-southwesterly component is forecast. Temperatures will remain warm with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will reach into the lower to mid 100s. If strenuous activity can be rescheduled to cooler times of the day, that would also be helpful to avoid heat illness.
The upper level pattern features a ridge centered across the central and southern Plains with a trough to the north across the eastern Great Lakes. This trough is racing to the southeast and pushing a front through the Ohio River Valley. Closer to home, things are dry as the upper ridge influences the weather here. The other factor tomorrow will be a cold front dropping south into middle and eastern TN during the afternoon hours.
331 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail across central Illinois today. with afternoon high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Cold front has settled S/SW of the KILX CWA early this morning, resulting in a light northeasterly breeze. Thanks to haze partially blocking the sun and a continued E/NE breeze, high temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. with some locations from Jacksonville eastward to Mattoon where precip will be most prevalent perhaps staying in the lower 70s.
/NEW/ /Through Tonight/ It'll be another seasonably hot and humid day as we remain positioned on the southern periphery of an upper ridge. This area should be far enough removed from the upper ridge to allow for percolating updrafts coinciding with peak heating.
218 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 08z surface analysis had high over south central ND with trough from central MT into eastern WY, turning into a stationary front along the NE/KS line. Trough moves east and lies across southern portion of CWA. This trough may be focus for additional -TSRA this afternoon over the Black Hills into central SD.
An upper level high pressure continues it's movement southeast through northeastern Oklahoma Friday into Saturday, which will help keep the skies relatively clear through the next couple days.
With the southern valley under the subsidence of the high pressure and light south winds bringing the relatively dense smoke currently in E SD back to the north. Smoke will keep temps in the low 80s possibly cooler. Drier and cooler air with north winds push across the region Saturday with a morning frontal passage. Breezy north winds are expected with highs in the low 80s for the last day of July. The upper ridge continues to dominate over the intermountain west and a trof over over the Great Lakes results in northerly flow over the Dakotas. Signals indicate a chance for some measurable precipitation near the end of the period, but temperatures will remain on the warmer side throughout the period.
342 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A cold front will move through the area later today. High pressure will build over the area tonight.
310 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will build into the region resulting in a clearing trend today.
354 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A high surface pressure airmass has moved from the southern Canadian provinces into the Red River region of the Dakotas and Minnesota in the last 24 hours, driving a surface cold front to the Kansas Nebraska line. This front is forecast to lift north as a warm front this afternoon as the airmass begins to heat up this morning. Looking at yesterday, apparent temperatures (heat indices in this summer case) were limited to around 100-103 degrees over portions of Barber county, and actually fell across the highway 183 corridor with insufficient dew points to increase an apparent temp. Our region will remain under the influence of the upper ridging while an mcs is likely to be driven southeast through the Missouri along the surface boundary through the eastern NE/srn IA and northern MO area.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 72 95 73 89 / 40 20 10 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 69 93 70 86 / 20 10 10 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 68 91 68 85 / 20 10 20 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 88 66 82 / 30 10 10 50 50 TN.
Tonight, drier air and cooler temperatures associated with the upper low in northeast Canada are able to move in. This will allow for cooler overnight temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s as opposed to the previous night's lows, which were around 70 degrees. High pressure passes overhead Friday keeping the area dry and with some passing clouds. With the cooler air aloft, this will keep highs in the low to mid 70s and dew points only in the 50s. Dry weather continues on Saturday, although slightly warmer, with high pressure overhead and just some clouds around.
Temperatures have remained 3 to 5 degrees cooler as a result, with many locations barely reaching 90F at this hour. The heat forecast is bit more unclear for Saturday, as overnight convection and height falls occur ahead of an approaching cold front.
Amplified upper level ridge over the west will keep the Upper Mississippi River Valley under northwest flow for the start of the new work week. Weak ripples in the upper level flow could top the ridge and drop across the region, bringing a smattering of pcpn chances.
1252 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 (This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge, currently centered over Kansas, will remain in place and perhaps gradually shift a bit into northeast Oklahoma on Friday. Our area will remain on the southern periphery of this ridge.
The low level airmass has dried out slightly from recent nights, and as such have lowered overnight lows a bit in most places with winds remaining on the light side. The excessive heat will remain the big issue for the next couple of days as upper high continues to dominate the overall weather pattern. Upper high will begin to break down by late weekend as mid level trough begins to dig across the eastern States. Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Saturday night with shower/thunderstorm chances increase along/behind frontal boundary.
Compared to 24 hours ago, most airports were running about 2 to 7 deg F warmer in the 70s to middle 80s deg F. 500 mb map continues to show a broad upper level ridge with a maxima around 597 decameters centered over the Great Plains today. Anticyclonic flow around this high is drawing monsoonal moisture into the Golden State from the south/southeast. A renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon across the higher elevations, including the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and even the Coastal Range.
The lowest RH values at this time do not line up with the highest winds, thus no fire weather highlights are anticipated at this time.
However a better chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow as a much welcomed August cold front sinks into the Midsouth.
Heading thru Sat/Sat night, the aforementioned upper rdg axis wl start transitioning to the W as an upr trof strengthens ovr the Ern - part of the nation.
An expansive upper level ridge over the Central Plains continues to extend across the Southeast through the period, causing extremely hot temperatures and minimal convective coverage through the period. Down at the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic extends across the Florida Peninsula and into the northern Gulf. The influence of the upper level ridge, however, will help to keep PoPs scattered at best. If you thought today was bad in terms of the heat, tomorrow will only be worse as the upper level ridge strengthens across the area. With the limited convective coverage and persistent upper level ridging, heat indices will continue to soar with values likely exceeding 112 degrees.
Friday, a weak PV anomaly/MCV over northeast Wyoming will gradually move southeast over the ridge and into Nebraska and Iowa later on Friday. However some mid 90s will be possible south of Interstate 70, but could be cooler depending how far south the front travels during the day.
204 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to overspread the CWA today with generally hot and benign weather expected. Fairly deep mixing up to around 3-km AGL should occur by peak heating as temperatures rise into the lower 90s and upper 90s across the Caprock and Rolling Plains, respectively. Otherwise, winds shift to the southeast at around 5-15 mph as the anticyclone aloft intensifies with dry and hot weather elsewhere. Sincavage This weekend, an upper level ridge will amplify over the Rockies/Intermountain West with a trough deepening over the eastern CONUS.
The Atlantic high is building into the area with the axis of the ridge to our north. Over the next few days however, through the weekend, drier air filtering through the base of the ridge in the lower boundary layer will severely limit convection over the area and coastal waters, and with the increased insolation temperatures may run a degree of two above normal.
A quick look at the latest HRRR-smoke model output, valid through 5 AM CDT Friday, it appears as though the blanket of surface/near surface smoke is going to be sticking around across the CWA through tonight and a better part of Friday, before the low level wind switches around and the eastern/southeastern edge of the smoke plume begins to head toward this region. This is due to the cold front that will quickly drop south-southeast across the area on Saturday morning.
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will build into the region resulting in a clearing trend today.
South of this front temperatures will reach the lower to mid 90s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s that will yield heat index values of 100-105 degrees. North of this boundary temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with heat index values in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Morning storms and convective debris should keep temperatures cooler than previous days with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across most of the CWA. It is here where temperatures may again reach into the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 range and as such may need to extend the excessive heat warning here.
Luckily a well timed cold front and wind direction switch to the N/NE will push much of this smoke/haze to the west tonight through Friday morning. Stumpf (Issued 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021) Tonight through Friday night: A ridge of high pressure will dominate this period with dry and quiet conditions. As the high slips to the east Friday night a weak return flow sets up. A cooler and less humid regime will be in place as well. (Issued 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021) Saturday through Saturday night: Increasingly cyclonic mid level flow regime along with a southward dropping cold front should result in some shra/tsra activity Saturday afternoon and evening.
132 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Cooler and notably less humid will filter southwards across the forecast area into Friday as a cold front will make its way into Pennsylvania.
A strong ridge stretching from Texas to the Pacific Northwest flanked by a trough across the Eastern US will remain in place through the short-term forecast. As the mid-level high pressure drifts slightly north today, this will steer a mid-level easterly wave across the Gulf Coast states through the weekend. By Saturday morning, the mid-level high pressure will still be north of our CWA while the mid-level easterly wave will be draped across Coastal TX.
357 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. Scattered showers or an isolated storm is possible over the ridges of West Virginia early this morning. Outside of this rainfall, dry and more comfortable conditions are expected today due to building high pressure and weak cold advection. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
As high pressure moves in tonight, winds will become more easterly and gradually clear out most of the smoke from the region. High pressure that settles over the area tonight will clear skies out and may allow for some patchy fog to develop. A weak short wave with an attendant cold front will spill south out of Canada and bring a chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night, mainly in northeastern Minnesota.
/28/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: A dangerously hot and humid airmass will remain in place across the region beneath stout upper ridging stretching into the Lower Mississippi Valley from the Central Plains. A few stray showers and thunderstorms may scrape across far southern portions of the area late this afternoon, but convection will remain suppressed owing to increasing ridging and nebulous forcing. /TW/ Ridging aloft will maintain its presence over the region heading into the upcoming weekend.
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will build into the area into Saturday.
Main upper level high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern for the short term forecast period. Temperatures may be a tad warmer, especially across the northern Panhandles where better large scale subsidence will take place. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower 90s in the southern TX Panhandle to upper 90s for the northeastern combined Panhandles. Meccariello Upper level ridge is expected to stretch from western Canada southward into the U. The ridge is then expected to re-orient itself to more north to south from western Canada into the southern U.
358 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
Westerly flow/WAA ahead of the associated cold front will allow for warmer temps and highs may reach the mid/upper 80s (cloud/smoke dependent). One unfortunate result of the cold front and building Canadian high pressure will be a return to long-fetch northerly flow from the Canadian wildfires in Manitoba/Ontario which will likely carry thick wildfire smoke back into our region late Friday night into Saturday morning. A ridge continues to dominate the upper levels. As the week begins, this ridge will shift back to our west.
1137 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Debris cloud cover from last night's MCS that moved across the Upper Midwest has held temperatures in the lower 90s for the most part across the CWA. However, dewpoints in the upper 70s to lower 80s have been more than able to compensate for the lower temperatures. Tonight, remnant outflow boundaries and an approaching cold front will kick off isolated to scattered convection to our north and northwest. This will usher in cooler and less humid air into the northern half of the CWA. On Saturday, we'll transition to a northwest flow pattern in the mid-levels with a strong SW-NE baroclinic zone across the CWA with cold front stalled just to our south.
- Heat index readings near 105 will occur south/west of a cold front Friday afternoon. Main focus this afternoon and evening will be ongoing dangerous heat indicies, followed by a chance for scattered thunderstorms along a sagging southward cold front. Heat concerns will remain Friday afternoon in areas south of the cold front, and with multiple days of heat this week, will lead to a dangerous cumulative effect of potential heat-related illness. Variable winds under 5kts will affect our terminals overnight as a cold front pushes through the area.
647 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain centered over Kansas and Oklahoma through tonight. Warm temperatures can be expected again tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Currently dealing with dissipating convection associated with a southward moving cold front, but the activity remained below severe limits although the lightning had been fairly frequent. During the day, much drier air is expected to filter south into the area from the north behind the cold front. There is some concern for temperatures to fail to reach the lower to mid 90s in spots due to clouds and rain, but given the high dew points in place, it won't take too much to reach the heat advisory criteria, especially in Carter/Ripley counties, so will leave current advisory alone for now and let day shift reevaluate. However, exactly where the highest axis of coverage will be, continues to waver with model runs. The location of the highest PoPs will continue to be in flux until models settle on a more cohesive solution.
1031 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The Atlantic ridge axis continues to remain south of the local area today, yielding generally SW/W flow before the sea breeze develops along the coast this afternoon. 75"+; However, will see a minor reduction in PoPs for this afternoon at around 40-50%, with the highest PoPs from Kissimmee/Melbourne southward. Highs this afternoon reaching the low to mid-90s, as heat indices soar to between 101 and 107 degrees. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, with the highest coverage affecting the Intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic waters.
Rain and storm chances continue through tomorrow as an inverted trough over the Gulf moves onshore during the afternoon.
Easterly sfc flow will keep moisture banked up against the higher terrain where isold convection remains possible this afternoon and evening, although coverage looks more sparse than previous afternoons. On Saturday, the center of the 500 hpa ridge will begin to migrate wwd toward the N Rockies as a strong upper-lvl trof moves over the Great Lakes region. This will cause hghts aloft to increase a bit over West TX and in turn bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area, albeit still below normal. A shrtwv trof assocd w/a weak upper low over northern MX will skirt the western half of our region Saturday afternoon.
550 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail across central Illinois today. with afternoon high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Cold front has settled S/SW of the KILX CWA early this morning, resulting in a light northeasterly breeze. Thanks to haze partially blocking the sun and a continued E/NE breeze, high temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. with some locations from Jacksonville eastward to Mattoon where precip will be most prevalent perhaps staying in the lower 70s.
530 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. Scattered showers or an isolated storm is possible over the ridges of West Virginia early this morning. Outside of this rainfall, dry and more comfortable conditions are expected today due to building high pressure and weak cold advection. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
650 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will build into the area into Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The center of a 500mb ridge will remain parked over the Kansas and Oklahoma through much of the period. At the surface, broad high pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico with some weak coastal convergence/troughing along the extreme Northwest Coast of Mexico and into the CWA. Also, deeper tropical moisture is expected to increase along the lower Texas coast today.
High pressure over the region this morning will lead to quiet weather for much of today. As the high pressure moves eastward, winds will switch to the southwest, pushing some of the highest concentrations of smoke back into the Northland over the day, with current smoke models showing near- surface smoke impacting all of the CWA at some point between now and Saturday morning. As a cold front sweeps eastward Saturday, some thunderstorms are possible in NW WI late Saturday afternoon. Northerly winds behind the cold front Saturday may allow another round of smoke from Canadian wildfires to advect into the region, which could worsen current smoke conditions. After Saturday, a broad region of high pressure settles over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes which should keep us mostly dry.
1020 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A cold front will move through the area later this afternoon. High pressure will build over the area tonight.
444 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 One more hot and humid day anticipated across the local area today as high pressure aloft remains across the local area and a moist airmass remains in place near the surface. expect a cold front across northern Nebraska to push south. This will bring in cooler temps for the region on Saturday.
1013 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will build into the area into Saturday.
However, mixing will be a bit limited as compared to other days and max temps will still warm into the low 90s, thus heat indices of 100-104 are expected, with perhaps an isolated 105 possible. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 94 74 89 / 30 20 10 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 93 71 85 / 30 10 10 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 89 68 91 70 84 / 20 10 20 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 89 66 82 / 20 10 10 50 50.
1024 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
88D returns show some scattered showers and isolated storms over the northeast Gulf waters associated with the aforementioned trough, otherwise rain free conditions under partly cloudy skies with light winds were being observed over the forecast area. It will be another hot and muggy day with highs climbing into the lower 90s prior to the onset of the convection with heat indices peaking out in the 100 to 106 degree range during the afternoon. High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula and into the east-central Gulf will maintain a southwest to west wind flow in the 5 to 10 knot range with slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
629 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
and Saturday Canadian high pressure will bring dry weather and partly cloudy skies to the forecast area today. It will be significantly cooler and less humid, especially over central and east central WI. After a quiet start tonight, a cold front will bring a small chance of showers and perhaps a storm to far northern WI late tonight. On Saturday, the cold front will drop south through the forecast area.
(Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021) Today through Saturday: Stratus developed across much of southern WI this morning due to moisture trapped in the low levels. The low clouds will mix out by mid morning. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The dry air will be temporary, since southerly winds will resume Saturday morning as weak low pressure tracks across lake Superior. Thunderstorms are looking more likely along the associated cold front that will slide down through WI Saturday afternoon into the evening. Highs on Saturday will get into the lower 80s and dewpoints will return to the lower to mid 60s.