Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong warming trend for the rest of the week. Temperatures will warm over the coming days as ridging dominates the upper-level pattern.
Weak high pressure will build into the area tonight.
support the idea of dry conditions continuing over the CWA from this evening into Thursday as upper ridging builds into southern Colorado. Also, a dry northerly component surface surge moving across eastern Colorado tonight will allow for cooler maximum temperatures Thursday(closer to seasonal averages over most locations), with projected maximum temperatures primarily expected to remain in the 50s over eastern locations.
It looks now like the highest coverage of measurable pcpn is transitioning to the southern part of the state for the rest of the evening hours. An area of low pressure will track across southern Canada tonight into the morning hours on Thursday. Light showers will be possible with the passage of a cold front between 0-6Z. Winds will be gusty behind the cold front with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph possible. High pressure will settle over the area on Thursday night with low temperatures dropping into the teens and mid 20s.
639 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Drier weather returns overnight and continues Thursday under building high pressure.
With the unsettled conditions will come slightly cooler temperatures. Ahead of this wave, a broad area of WAA is occurring across the Plains within the developing lee-side trough. Even with the expansive cirrus shield over much of eastern Kansas, temperatures have still managed to warm into the low-60s. The above-mentioned cold front will cross northeast KS around daybreak Thursday, with a quick shift to northwesterly winds in its wake. High pressure moves overhead Thursday night as upper level ridging builds east into the central US. Martin SW flow aloft will develop across the central US over the weekend as the upper level ridge shifts east.
630 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Dry conditions will settle in through Thursday morning before a strong cold front brings a chance of showers mainly during the afternoon.
Thursday will be another seasonably mild day as a cold front approaches from the northwest, with afternoon temps in the 60s. The cold front will come through on the dry side, as there will be little if any moisture return ahead of it.
We will see a cold front push across the plains around the midnight hour, with a change in the low level airmass and shallow anticyclonic upslope flow. Tonight's cold front will lead to cooler temperatures across the plains for Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure builds over the region on Thursday causing a warming and drying trend.
413 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Low pressure trough has quickly swept through the region bringing scattered showers and easily drawing down the high wind gusts from aloft. Thursday, a strong ridge of high pressure will quickly move into the region from the west, and will drive most precipitation away.
647 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A weak area of low pressure this afternoon will spread a bit of light snow and rain into the western counties. High pressure will pass over the Commonwealth Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and light wind.
A strong upper- level jet has rounded the base of the trough and is nosing into the Lower MS Valley, with a bit of a dry slot on the northwest flank of the jet. /issued 257 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ A relatively dry and cool midcontinental airmass prevailed over the Midsouth this afternoon, under a confluence of northwest- oriented northern branch, and zonal subtropical branch downstream of an an upper low over TX. A broad rain shield extended from the upper low, eastward to GA. The northern edge of this rain shield had limited success building into the Midsouth today, given dry air in the lowest 7 to 10 kft. The upper low will open up and accelerate east, reaching AL / middle TN by midday Thursday.
310 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Low pressure circulating through srn Canada this afternoon will draw a fairly strong area of Pacific high pressure across British Columbia tonight. A strong cold front will drop through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight bringing with it very dry air. The temperature forecast tonight and Thursday night leans on the warmer short term model blend plus bias correction. The warmer guidance blend is in place for highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday.
Low pressure circulating through srn Canada this afternoon will draw a fairly strong area of Pacific high pressure across British Columbia tonight. A strong cold front will drop through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight bringing with it very dry air. The temperature forecast tonight and Thursday night leans on the warmer short term model blend plus bias correction. The warmer guidance blend is in place for highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday.
A cold front will sweep through the region Thursday morning, with northwesterly winds becoming gusty. /Issued 250 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ Light rain will continue to spread across SE OK through the evening hours as the upper low currently over west TX moves through the Arklatex region overnight. Skies will clear overnight with sunny and warmer temps tomorrow. Cold front moves through the region during Thursday afternoon / evening hours with an increase in post frontal wind speeds raising fire weather concerns especially across northeast OK.
316 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Low pressure trough has quickly swept through the region bringing scattered showers and easily drawing down the high wind gusts from aloft. Thursday, a strong ridge of high pressure will quickly move into the region from the west, and will drive most precipitation away.
Mild temperatures prevail, trending warmer toward the end of the week. Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances return for the weekend.
A cold front will push through the TAF sites Thursday morning which will shift the wind to the north and could bring gusty conditions as well. Winds will turn back to the south and then west around midnight after the upper low has fully pushed eastward.
405 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 A ridge will build into the region through Thursday, providing a warming trend.
546 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure extending from MO into central IL will keep conditions dry overnight. The high will move east, allowing winds to shift to the south late tonight. Another cold front will approach the area Thursday, with the winds becoming gusty ahead of the front from the south.
South of the lake, temperatures have been in the lower 80s in some spots.
We will see a sensible weather change from the northern system by way of a cold front passage very early tomorrow morning. This will be another downslope-modified cold front with lower tropospheric trajectories off the higher terrain of Wyoming.
The ridge axis will be moving overhead by late Thursday with the polar jet lifted well north into Canada. This will allow for sunny skies once again and temperatures rising a bit warmer than today. Grand Junction may even break into the low 60s with this warm advective pattern.
An upper level trough resides over the New England states and eastern Canada, a ridge remains over the western Caribbean, and a quasi-cut-off low is moving over Texas. At the surface, a low pressure system is moving from the New England states and pushing northeast into the Canadian Maritime provinces and deepening. This low has a cold front that stretches back southwest along the eastern seaboard and then turns east to west across the southern US. Meanwhile a ridge near Bermuda will continue to push east across the North Atlantic. Temperatures this afternoon rose into the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
736 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure will pass over the Commonwealth on Thursday, bringing mostly sunny skies and light wind.
613 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2020 Update out for expiration of Red Flag Warnings and most of the High Wind Warnings. To cover this added Sheridan Foothills to the high wind warning. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two until the cold front clears the area this afternoon.
834 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 A front just to our south will remain nearly stationary this evening before beginning to return north as a warm front into Thursday. Low pressure will move across the area Thursday.
331 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 An area of low pressure will track across southern Canada tonight into the morning hours on Thursday. Light showers will be possible with the passage of a cold front between 0-6Z. Winds will be gusty behind the cold front with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph possible. High pressure will settle over the area on Thursday night with low temperatures dropping into the teens and mid 20s.
Showers have stayed off to the south so far today, but dewpoints are holding in the low to mid 30s for the most part this afternoon as well. This may make the northward spread of showers a bit more difficult with the lower level dry air, but as the upper trough approaches, chances for showers will creep northward early tomorrow morning. The upper trough will move east Thursday, so the precip chances will be confined to the Plateau early Thursday afternoon.
839 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 High pressure extending from MO into central IL will keep conditions dry overnight. The high will move east, allowing winds to shift to the south late tonight. Another cold front will approach the area Thursday, with the winds becoming gusty ahead of the front from the south.
/issued 257 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ A relatively dry and cool midcontinental airmass prevailed over the Midsouth this afternoon, under a confluence of northwest- oriented northern branch, and zonal subtropical branch downstream of an an upper low over TX. A broad rain shield extended from the upper low, eastward to GA. The northern edge of this rain shield had limited success building into the Midsouth today, given dry air in the lowest 7 to 10 kft. The upper low will open up and accelerate east, reaching AL / middle TN by midday Thursday.
As a low pressure system moves into Texas, mostly clear skies will continue to overtake New Mexico through the overnight. Dry conditions will prevail into the early part of the weekend with temperatures generally staying near to slightly above normal, even with a weak cold front sliding into the state from the northeast on Thursday.
922 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Dry weather is expected through Thursday under building high pressure.
520 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 An area of low pressure will track across southern Canada tonight into the morning hours on Thursday. Light showers will be possible with the passage of a cold front between 0-6Z. Winds will be gusty behind the cold front with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph possible. High pressure will settle over the area on Thursday night with low temperatures dropping into the teens and mid 20s.
Winds will become southerly after 06z once a high pressure center has shifted eastward, and the onset of weak warm air advection overnight may slow the rate of nocturnal cooling. Overnight lows should be similar to or a few degrees cooler than last night. Kanofsky A strong low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region on Thursday.
Once drier air filters in behind the low late in the morning, skies will clear and will remain VFR through the period. Wrap around convection/showers on the eastward side of the low is bringing some light to moderate rain for northern parts of the Hill Country. Drier air will filter into the low and mid levels in the wake of this system and begin to clear the area out. Max and min temperatures Thursday will be just at or slightly above climo normals, reaching the low to mid 70s in the afternoon and mid to upper 40's Thursday night.
With that said, strong wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots has been observed along the leading edge of the cold front. The current thinking is that storm intensity is likely to wane after sunset although mid and upper level moisture will remain plentiful enough to fuel continued scattered showers through the night as the trailing upper trof moves across central and northern Louisiana.
High pressure continues to build across the Rio Grande Valley through the TAF period with VFR conditions expected. /issued 257 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): The cold front has cleared through the area and is moving offshore this afternoon. The 500 mb closed low that pushed this front through the region will lift out steadily pretty quickly to the ENE tonight into Thurs. After this system clears through the region, 500 mb ridging will steadily build over the RGV maintaining generally dry and stable conditions.
305 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 A cold front will sweep across the state this evening and tonight, bringing strong winds, showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be cooler on Thursday behind the front, mainly in the low 30s to low 40s. scattered convective showers will continue to develop in the warm air advection regime as well as along the approaching cold front.
/issued 230 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ The upper low responsible for abundant rainfall this morning across the Permian Basin is beginning to shear out into an open wave over northwestern Texas at the moment. In its wake, increasing short wave ridging and drier air aloft should scatter out cloudiness tonight.
Lingering low overcast with periods of light precipitation may occur along the western backside of this low as it heads into northern Florida by Thursday night. The broken to scattered morning cloud deck will either advect east or evaporate away with the advection of cooler, dry air through the afternoon hours. Ample PM sun should counteract the gusty northwest lower level wind and allow temperatures to climb from the early morning low to mid 50s back up into the lower 70s around the noon hour. An upper level ridge will amplify over Texas Thursday night as a short wave moves into southern CA.
To cover this added Sheridan Foothills to the high wind warning. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two until the cold front clears the area this afternoon.
Winds will continue increasing with gust up to 26 knots across the area now that the cold front has pushed through.
/issued 550 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions as a cold front and low-pressure will make their way through the region tonight. Weather is also being carried at all sites past 05/09z in the form of SHRA or -SHRA as the low continues east. Temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern zones to the upper 40s across our southern zones.
Will expect wind to remain elevated through the night as a second push of high pressure builds in from the north. Persistent northerly winds and CAA will lead to highs Thursday in the low to mid 70s.
Strong h850 winds Thursday morning will again create gusty northwest winds across the James River valley through early afternoon as another adiabatic linkage to the low level winds are expected. A cold front will sweep across the state this evening and tonight, bringing strong winds, showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be cooler on Thursday behind the front, mainly in the low 30s to low 40s. scattered convective showers will continue to develop in the warm air advection regime as well as along the approaching cold front.
755 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Updated POP/wx grids earlier based on local 88Ds showing a fairly substantial lack of precip activity behind the cold front, currently situated from low pressure near Marsh Island and extending offshore. With that said, strong wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots has been observed along the leading edge of the cold front. The current thinking is that storm intensity is likely to wane after sunset although mid and upper level moisture will remain plentiful enough to fuel continued scattered showers through the night as the trailing upper trof moves across central and northern Louisiana.
814 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Have increased the winds for Thursday in the wake of the area of low pressure that moves by to the north. Water vapor imagery showing a potent mid-level trough/closed low chugging east across the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Lift and push of moisture ahead of the attendant cold front from the low will push the likelihood of some rain and snow showers into the area mainly after midnight. Later Thursday morning into the afternoon on the backside of the low, tightening pressure gradient/steepening lapse rates will produce gusty west winds in the 15 to 25 mph range, gusting up to 35 mph. In addition, steepening lapse rates/cooler cyclonic flow expected to produce scattered rain and rain/snow showers.
550 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions as a cold front and low-pressure will make their way through the region tonight. Weather is also being carried at all sites past 05/09z in the form of SHRA or -SHRA as the low continues east. Temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern zones to the upper 40s across our southern zones.
Winds will be turning from southerly to northerly with the cold front passage. /Issued 159 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast tonight as the upper level low over southwest Texas moves away. A cold front will move through the Panhandles around sunrise Thursday.
Lingering low overcast with periods of light precipitation may occur along the western backside of this low as it heads into northern Florida by Thursday night. The broken to scattered morning cloud deck will either advect east or evaporate away with the advection of cooler, dry air through the afternoon hours. Ample PM sun should counteract the gusty northwest lower level wind and allow temperatures to climb from the early morning low to mid 50s back up into the lower 70s around the noon hour. 31 An upper level ridge will amplify over Texas Thursday night as a short wave moves into southern CA.
547 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Water vapor imagery showing a potent mid-level trough/closed low chugging east across the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Lift and push of moisture ahead of the attendant cold front from the low will push the likelihood of some rain and snow showers into the area mainly after midnight. Later Thursday morning into the afternoon on the backside of the low, tightening pressure gradient/steepening lapse rates will produce gusty west winds in the 15 to 25 mph range, gusting up to 35 mph. In addition, steepening lapse rates/cooler cyclonic flow expected to produce scattered rain and rain/snow showers.
This conditions may continue for several hours until the low is east of the area towards daybreak.
300 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 A vigorous mid/upper trough over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early this morning is progged to dig SSE over the Upper Mississippi Valley area and into the Great Lakes area by tonight. The latest guidance had shifted this trough a bit closer to the Central Plains states today which will have a pretty big impact on our sensible weather. As high pressure settles south across the area tonight, strong radiational cooling is anticipated. a mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the central CONUS on Fri-Sat bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures to the forecast area.
What's left of the upper level low across northeast Texas will continue to open and move quickly away from the region today. Weak ridging aloft is forecast to gradually build over the region tonight and Friday. At the surface a weak, re-enforcing cold front is forecast to move through the area early Friday morning.
High pressure will shift southeast on Thursday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
A weak cold front will move through tomorrow with northwesterly winds increasing during the afternoon. A cold front will sweep through the region Thursday morning, with northwesterly winds becoming gusty. /Issued 250 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ Light rain will continue to spread across SE OK through the evening hours as the upper low currently over west TX moves through the Arklatex region overnight. Skies will clear overnight with sunny and warmer temps tomorrow. Cold front moves through the region during Thursday afternoon / evening hours with an increase in post frontal wind speeds raising fire weather concerns especially across northeast OK.
High pressure will build into the region through Thursday resulting in a warming trend.
1040 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Observations show recovery in the low surface humidities across the north and west. Low pressure circulating through srn Canada this afternoon will draw a fairly strong area of Pacific high pressure across British Columbia tonight. A strong cold front will drop through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight bringing with it very dry air. The temperature forecast tonight and Thursday night leans on the warmer short term model blend plus bias correction. The warmer guidance blend is in place for highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday.
Quiet weather is expected tonight as high pressure begins to build into the area. An upper level disturbance moving through the area Thursday afternoon and evening may bring a few sprinkles or light showers to the area, with a windy day on Friday owing to strong high pressure pushing into the area in its wake. Profiles only moisten in the low levels briefly, but with relatively steep low level lapse rates, will need a low chance for showers in the afternoon and early evening hours across mainly the northeastern half.
1036 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Currently - Deep layered ridging extends from the Atlantic across the Keys and Florida Straits. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate overnight, keeping winds light to gentle out of the southeast. Ridging across Keys waters will maintain light to gentle southeast breezes through the overnight.
Thursday will be another seasonably mild day as a cold front approaches from the northwest, with afternoon temps in the 60s. The cold front will come through on the dry side, as there will be little if any moisture return ahead of it. The front will serve, however, to bring cooler weather in for Friday, with readings from 10 to 15 degrees below those on Thursday. The weekend looks dry as well, with high pressure pushing east across the region.
Lows overnight are still expected to fall into the lower 40s and upper 30s.
Mild temperatures prevail, trending warmer toward the end of the week. Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances return for the weekend. Allowed the High Wind Warning to expire earlier this evening so there are currently no highlights out for anywhere in the Great Falls CWA. Temperatures trend cooler behind the cold front this evening as winds gradually decouple and settle down. Temperatures trend warmer Thursday and Friday as a broad upper level ridge passes through the region.
Lows will range from the lower 30s to upper 30s. A low pressure system will drop southeast over the Great Lakes on Thursday, with the upper trough digging southeast over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. By Friday morning, the upper level trough will continue to push eastward, causing a few light showers to linger in the Bluegrass region until mid morning. A few flurries may also be possible considering that temps will be hovering just above freezing. Friday also looks to be a bit breezy, as models show a tight pressure gradient grazing the region on the backside of the exiting trough. Despite the clearing skies, gusty northerly winds will keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s, almost a 10-15 degree departure from yesterdays highs.
258 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Rain returns today as a second wave of low pressure moves east along a front stalled to the south. Drier weather will return Friday as a cold front moves off the coast.