Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
604 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Southwest flow aloft overhead will continue through Sunday with a couple of nearly stationary upper level lows. These upper lows were located over the northern Rockies and over northern Sonora. We will again see weak lee surface cyclogenesis and troughing which will keep surface winds out of the southeast and temperatures near seasonal averages.
629 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 High surface pressure and ridging aloft across the central CONUS continue to dominate our sensible weather. The ridge is buttressed by two upper-level lows: one in the intermountain West that has moved only minimally over the last 24 hours and the other over the Southeast US associated with PTC Ian. While the low to the west of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will eventually move downstream, a noted lack of steering flow aloft will keep the current weather pattern in place through the weekend.
Rain chances are expected to continue due to a trough digging into the US to our west. Limited instability will be helped by WAA ahead of the trough to get enough for some isolated rumbles of thunder in the short term.
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Dry and mild weather will continue through the remainder of this weekend as Canadian high pressure dominates. Thus, expect slightly below normal values as highs maintain the lower to mid 80s on Sunday while lows fall back into the upper end of the 40s to lower 50s tonight and perhaps a few degrees warmer on Sunday night.
847 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 High pressure and dry conditions will continue.
You couldn't wish for a more beautiful fall afternoon! A closed low currently over Idaho will continue to slowly find its way into MT on Sunday as ridging starts to build back into the western U. Model ensembles are in solid agreement that this ridging pattern will remain in control for the entire upcoming week.
729 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Some clouds associated with an upper low north of the area, along with the remnants of Ian, will remain across the area through Sunday.
At 315 PM, a closed upper low was producing unsettled weather in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana.
At 2 PM, eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri remained on the southern edge of high pressure across southern Ontario. Discussion: Stagnant weather pattern continues across the area with a blocking pattern in place aloft across the region. This is resulting in persistent ridging across the southern Plains that extends northward into the Mid Missouri River Valley. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will be a little warmer with low in the mid to upper 40s. Skies will become sunny by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures once again in the upper 60s across northwest Illinois to the lower 70s west of a Independence to Macomb Illinois line.
Isolated to scattered activity looks to continue overnight across northeast Arizona and the Four Corners region as low pressure towards the north begins to lift.
Therefore, any chance of rain for the Middle and Lower Keys will be removed for the overnight period in the evening update, and will keep the low slight chance in the Upper Keys.
If anything, they are just a tad warmer. Mid-level ridging will continue to expand over the Central portion of the country while the remnants of Ian move slowly closer to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline. Highs will range from the mid 70s in the higher elevations east to the lower 80s west and south.
639 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (Tonight) Quiet/tranquil wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley heading into the afternoon hrs this Sat, as high pressure remains layered from the Great Lakes southward into the Midwest/lower MS Valley states.
Tomorrow more dry air makes its way into the area as a trough pushes south over the state.
758 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Both the surface and upper ridge remain situated to our west, and that's keeping a cool, dry air mass locked in over Middle Tennessee.
Discussion: Our region remains underneath mid level ridging sandwiched between a nearly stagnant closed low over the Intermountain West and the low assosciated with the remnants of Ian over Appalachia. Temperatures this afternoon are a bit warmer than yesterday, with 3 PM temps in the mid to upper 70s with clear skies persisting.
645 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with an upper low centered over Idaho and Wyoming. Another upper low is over Northern Mexico. High temperatures on Sunday may be a little cooler than today with surface winds becoming more easterly. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the 40s in the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s along the Rio Grande and Lower Trans Pecos.
We do have weak cold front coming through this area overnight. Quiet weather continues under surface and upper ridging.
A weak upper low over Sonora, Mexico combined with the daytime heating will support additional showers and thunderstorms today.
For tonight, continued with a slightly cooler than model blend forecast for lows as dry air, light wind, and clear skies are yielding lows cooler than NBM.
This low begins to eject eastward on Monday, reaching eastern Montana/Wyoming by the end of the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will remain over the western High Plains, keeping breezy south to southeasterly winds across the CWA today. The low will move very little tonight, and only makes its way to the central Dakotas on Monday. High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
(Now through Monday) 500mb ridge continues to dominate over Texas with a 700-500mb dry mid-layer in place. At the surface, a weak trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf supporting a light east wind and a deck of stratocumulus, higher up satellite loops show cirrus clouds streaming northeast over NE Mexico and S Texas from Pacific Hurricane Orlene.
1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 All is clear and quiet at this hour with area observations indicating temperatures have fallen into the low 60s to mid 50s. Overnight lows will continue to fall until resting generally in the low/mid 50s by daybreak. 11 (This evening through Monday Night) At the surface a ridge of high pressure stretches from southern Canada across the Great Lakes into Texas. Between these features and north to northeast continues to drag in cooler than normal temperatures and a very dry air mass which will remain in place into early week. The period's weather will remain very benign with temperatures slowly moderating closer to normal, but remaining cooler than.
Highs this afternoon are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s to near 60.
229 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Quiet weather will continue to encompass the region today through Monday night, as upper level high pressure remains entrenched over the region.
A 500 mb low pressure currently over eastern Idaho and western Wyoming will be the main weather feature through the short term portion of the forecast. At the surface, an area of low pressure located over central SD will remain near the CWA over the next 24 to 36 hours. The low pressure will bring breezy south to southeasterly winds, along with warm temperatures for this time of year. Pcpn chances should begin increasing on Sunday, mainly Sunday night as the upper level trough slowly approaches the CWA, with some upper level support moving into the western CWA as well. The pattern aloft when the period opens Monday still showcases that closed low circulation off to the west/northwest of the CWA over the Rockies.
Discussion: The remnants of what used to be Ian is now located across the central Appalachians as an upper level low. This low will be slow to move over the next 24-36 hours. Today, high pressure across Ontario will begin to sag south, while any surface reflection from Ian dissipates. This will again produce a large temperature gradient across the area with warmer readings expected across the southern valley and much cooler conditions across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. High pressure to the north will promote a north to northeasterly wind tonight with lows near normal.
Closed upper level low across eastern ID continues to push upper level clouds from the east into the area. Upper level ridge will slowly build into the area as the trough slowly moves eastward and clouds will slowly decrease. A closed upper level low centered over southwestern Montana will slowly drift eastward as high pressure builds over the area on Sunday. It will be mostly clear across the area except in the central Idaho mountains where moisture on the back side of the upper low will rotate back into the mountains with isolated rain showers this evening. The atmosphere doesn't appear to be unstable enough to support thunderstorms on the back side of the low, so we have removed mention of that from the latest forecast.
216 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 High pressure remains in control for the next several days, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
339 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The short term periods continue to be dominated by the slow moving upper low and period light rain shower chances. 01") during the daytime period Monday as the main upper low axis finally begins to move into our CWA.
For one more night, we should see some locations drop into the 50s for lows, but with a very gradual increase in surface moisture we'll be a bit warmer and more humid than recent nights.
359 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Rain associated with post-tropical cyclone Ian will move eastward slowly this morning before subsiding in the afternoon. Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain over the OH Valley Monday night through Thurs, seasonable temperatures will likely return during the day.
225 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a closed low over the Montana Wyoming border that is dragging in low clouds and isolated to scattered rain showers across northeast Montana from the southeast. To the west a heat ridge rises from California through the Pac Northwest and into southern British Columbia. Today through Monday: As the low moves across the MT/WY border it will continue to drag low clouds and patchy fog across the region into tonight. By Monday the showers will begin clearing west to east as the low exits the area.
1047 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (Rest of tonight) Another night of tranquil weather as high pressure keeps dry and cool conditions in place.
255 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Latest water vapor imagery has the upper low centered over Yellowstone National Park early this morning. Areas of isolated to scattered showers continue to rotate around the low and across portions of the area. As the low gradually lifts north and east into southern Montana today, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. With the low moving overhead, there is better potential for some thunderstorms, especially over far southeast Montana this afternoon and evening. Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect the area through Monday, with the greatest precipitation chances over southeastern areas, as the low slowly spins east. Precipitation totals through Monday will generally be up to a half an inch with the highest totals near the mountains and foothills, as well as over southeast Montana.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Once again ridging is the dominant feature across much of the central CONUS. While temperatures remain above normal, the low-level thermal ridge begins to be displaced further west. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected both Sunday and Monday as a result with lower 80s becoming more prevalent versus the mid to upper 80s. While the drier air keeps the overnight temperatures cool, it keeps any rainfall out of the forecast, if subsidence under the ridge already wasn't limiting those chances enough already.
Northeast winds will keep areas near the lake cooler today and again on Monday but high temps inland are expected to reach the upper 60s/lower 70s today and Monday.
We begin the new work week by remaining located on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, and the lingering upper trough over the East Coast. At the sfc, expansive Canadian high pressure will be sprawled out across the Great Lakes region, filtering cool low-level NE flow into the region. Temperatures will remain below normal for Mon and Tue, with highs topping out in the low to mid 70s.
Maximum temperature forecasts will reflect the upper range of guidance during this period, while minimum temperature forecasts will be reflect the lower.
341 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 A tight pressure gradient will continue today between the remnants of Ian and a large high pressure area sprawling across Canada. The remnants of Hurricane Ian have morphed into a large low pressure area along the east coast. The center of the low had reformed over the warmer waters of the Atlantic in lieu of the original center over North Carolina and Virginia. High pressure will remain over or in the vicinity of the region into the middle of this week.
This pattern will allow the dry, relatively cooler air to persist over much of the area while limiting the tropical moisture and any unsettled weather to the Atlantic waters or the immediate east coast.
1211 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Southwest flow aloft overhead will continue through Sunday with a couple of nearly stationary upper level lows. These upper lows were located over the northern Rockies and over northern Sonora. We will again see weak lee surface cyclogenesis and troughing which will keep surface winds out of the southeast and temperatures near seasonal averages.
228 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Key points: * Mild and dry into mid-week * Small precipitation chances mid/late week * First frost possible late week Recent water vapor imagery continues to show upper lows over the northern Rockies and mid-Atlantic with broad ridging between.
233 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Omega block remains in place with a upper closed to the east a ridge axis to the northeast and another closed low to the northwest.
There have been some light returns on radar over our northern areas early this morning, but we suspect that nothing is reaching the ground as there is plenty of dry air in the low-levels. There is the potential for some fog to develop later this morning, mainly over northwest Illinois, but quite a bit of uncertainty remains on this, especially with the higher clouds filtering in. The synoptic pattern hasn't changed much, with high pressure situated over the Great Lakes dominating over the region. We continue to remain under an omega blocking pattern, so our weather conditions will change very little from the last few days, with mostly sunny skies across much of the region today. Today's highs should warm into the lower 70s for most locations, with lows tonight in the middle to upper 40s.
- Fogleman 1155 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (02/06Z TAF period) A large and nearly stationary upper level low is positioned near KWYS late this evening. A large upper level low continues to rotate over the ID/WY border, just south of West Yellowstone. This upper level low will slowly move northward into Central MT over the next few days.
The upper low that is hanging out over the Rockies today finally starts to push eastward late Sunday night into Monday morning. As it does, this will push a cold front towards the area and bring a chance for a few showers to our west. The daytime on Monday will still remain warm and mostly dry, but chances for rain (and perhaps even a few t-storms) increase Monday evening as the front and upper low push across the area.
(Today and tonight) The remnants of Ian continue to move up the eastern seaboard this morning as high pressure over southern Canada ridges down through the central US and into Texas and Louisiana.
The upper ridge will remain about in the same position, while Ian remnants slow move east through the short term period. At the surface, a reinforcing area of high pressure will move southwest from Canada into the area. Will trend toward the warmer of the guidance for highs today.
Normal high temperatures this time of year are in the low 70s. We should beat that the next two days with most areas seeing highs in the low 80s.
(Today and tonight) Seasonable, sensible weather is expected today with high temperatures peaking in the lower 80s area-wide as the CWA remains beneath an attenuating mid/upper-level ridge. An expansive closed low remains over the Intermountain West with a barotropic vorticity lobe still meandering over northern Sonora.
215 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 An upper low will slowly drift east across Virginia and North Carolina through Monday morning, maintaining breezy north winds and areas of cloud cover, along with small precipitation chances for the mountains and northwest Piedmont of North Carolina.
Coupled with breezy northerly winds during the afternoon, I expect drier air to mix down to the ground, especially west of I-65, allowing for RH values to drop into the low 20s once again. In addition, with upper ridging expected to start dominating the region for the next several days, have had to bump afternoon highs through mid-week as the NBM continues to run low.
Low pressure stalled over the Intermountain West coupled with a weak low in northwestern Mexico will provide enough moisture and lift to keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in parts of Mohave County each afternoon through Monday. Low pressure will continue to churn over the Intermountain Region although it is finally showing signs of lifting slowly to the north. The low pressure area over northern Mexico begins to fill but still lingers near the southern Arizona border. Based on the 06z HRRR run which showed similar trends to the 00z run, Monday could be an interesting day as the trough axis associated with the low to our north drops south through our area providing dynamic support for storm activity.
1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Dry and mild weather will continue through the remainder of this weekend as Canadian high pressure dominates. Thus, expect slightly below normal values as highs maintain the lower to mid 80s on Sunday while lows fall back into the upper end of the 40s to lower 50s tonight and perhaps a few degrees warmer on Sunday night.
Stubborn upper low that has been slow to move out of the area will finally do so later this afternoon and evening. Best precip potential will be around Island Park and along the Montana Divide but these chances drop off quickly around midnight as the low moves into eastern Montana. In the low's wake, high pressure looks to build in over the area which will allow things to dry out and to bring out the sunshine once again.
(Today through Monday Night) Dry, pleasant wx continues with sfc & mid level ridging prevailing.
The Tennessee Valley will remain on the southern edge of a large area of high pressure and this should keep cloud cover to our east. Upper level ridging should begin building eastward towards the area today as well. Expect highs to be very similar to yesterday reaching the mid to upper 70s east of the I-65 corridor and the lower 80s further west.
1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The forecast continues to be repetitive, with an established upper level ridge resulting in clear skies, warm temperatures, and dry conditions.
The Florida peninsula is in the base of a trough axis associated with the remnants of Ian. Today looks just a touch warmer than the last couple. Even with warmer temperatures, it won't feel quite as miserable. For coastal areas, cooler waters caused by upwelling as Ian passed should keep temperatures more moderated in the lower to mid-80s. Eventually, upper level ridging may try to build back northward as well. Late in the week as the flow trends more easterly and a weaker trough axis attempt to dig, additional moisture may return to support a few storms.
1029 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 All is clear and quiet at this hour with area observations indicating temperatures have fallen into the low 60s to mid 50s. Overnight lows will continue to fall until resting generally in the low/mid 50s by daybreak. 11 (This evening through Monday Night) At the surface a ridge of high pressure stretches from southern Canada across the Great Lakes into Texas. Between these features and north to northeast continues to drag in cooler than normal temperatures and a very dry air mass which will remain in place into early week. The period's weather will remain very benign with temperatures slowly moderating closer to normal, but remaining cooler than.
(through Tonight) A cold front will slowly move south southeast across the area through Tonight. The front will push to the south of the area towards dawn on Monday, as high pressure builds to the northwest.
This morning, the remnants of Ian continue to linger over the middle Appalachia now as a decent extratropical cyclone over the eastern U. To the west, the large H500 trough continues to linger over the northern Rockies. In response, the Plains and Midwest remain well positioned under a stout H500 ridge. This pattern will be slow to breakdown, with the ridge remaining in place into the middle of this week.
Highs on Sunday range from around 80 well inland to the lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night range from the mid 50s inland to the lower 60s at the immediate coast. Highs on Monday range from the upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s elsewhere.
The responsible upper-level low pressure system is stalled over western Wyoming and will only slowly move through our region through Monday.
112 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Current forecast remains on track with a pleasant night in store, with lows in the lower and middle 50s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s, with highs tomorrow in the low 80s.
1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 High surface pressure and ridging aloft across the central CONUS continue to dominate our sensible weather. The ridge is buttressed by two upper-level lows: one in the intermountain West that has moved only minimally over the last 24 hours and the other over the Southeast US associated with PTC Ian. While the low to the west of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will eventually move downstream, a noted lack of steering flow aloft will keep the current weather pattern in place through the weekend. MRB Starting Monday, the polar jet aloft will slowly seep south from northern Canada as a longwave trough amplifies. The low will approach the Mid-Mississippi Valley at a snail's pace, however, which will make for continued sunny, tranquil weather until the middle of the week.
High pressure is wedging into the region from the northeast today and we remain between a mid level trough to the east and some ridging to the west. An approaching trough Monday will bring forth a warming trend across the ArkLaMiss. Temperatures through the mid week will gradually increase from the lower to the upper 80s.
1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with an upper low centered over Idaho and Wyoming. Another upper low is over Northern Mexico. High temperatures on Sunday may be a little cooler than today with surface winds becoming more easterly. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the 40s in the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s along the Rio Grande and Lower Trans Pecos.
At 315 PM, a closed upper low was producing unsettled weather in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. Breezy with Increased Fire Dangers Sunday & Monday: The closed upper low centered over Idaho, Montana and Wyoming today, will track east at a glacial pace through Monday.
We are moving from being in the space between a trough to the east and ridge to the west to being dominated by the ridge as systems move eastward. 4 inches, which is statistically in the lowest 10 percent recorded).