Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
307 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Look for one more brutally cold night tonight as high pressure settles in directly overhead. However, Saturday may see several locations possibly top freezing for the first time in 10 days or more, as the high moves off to the east, and winds turn more southerly. If the Carbondale airport manages to stay below freezing for one more day on Saturday, it will tie the all time number of days below 32 degrees at 13, set back in the snowy and frigid winter of 1978.
348 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Water vapor imagery shows a trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast. This trough will quickly push into the Intermountain West by 12Z Saturday and across the Rockies Saturday night. The associated cold front will pull across the area late tonight and Saturday. Ahead of the trough a moist westerly flow will impact the far west tonight. As the trough and front pull across the area there will be chances of snow over the south and east of the Divide.
314 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Temperatures were approaching the freezing mark this afternoon with nearly full sun and surface winds becoming more southerly as high pressure shifts southeast of the forecast area. Saturday is expected to be slightly warmer with little to no cloud cover and increasing south winds.
Breezy to windy conditions are being observed in a few locations, especially near and just east of higher ridges and mountains. Surface winds will subside after sunset, but winds aloft will strengthen with low level wind shear before dawn in the lowest 2,000 to 5,000 feet, especially over western New Mexico. Low level moisture may return to the lower Pecos valley with low clouds and/or fog possible near KROW before dawn, however there is low confidence that flight categories will be reduced on a widespread basis. Warmer conditions continue for the first half of the weekend, along with gusty southwest winds. An upper level trough crossing the central and southern Rockies will spread scattered to isolated snow showers over the northern mountains Saturday night with a few inches of accumulation possible mainly near the CO border.
Temperatures have already dropped below freezing with many locations already down in the mid 20s. Snow melt across the region will provide plenty of low-level moisture with patchy freezing fog expected overnight. The best chance for freezing fog will be for locations that still have snow on the ground. Currently have an SPS that address both the freezing fog and black ice.
624 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: High pressure building back into the region, but low stratus swath across central terminals with melting snow/ice. Otherwise, VFR with light northerly winds becoming increasingly variable overnight under the ridge axis. Despite the cloud cover temperatures have warmed above freezing at most locations and melting has occurred especially in areas that continued to receive more direst insolation. This light return flow may develop in the west close to sunrise and help produce patchy light freezing fog. Some of our upper delta counties may remain in the 30s but all sites should climb above freezing and bring and end to the long duration of subfreezing temperatures.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday Night/ High pressure is in place across the region this evening and as the sun sets after a day of full sunshine, some refreezing of melting snow will occur. Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight, mainly in the upper teens where there is still snow pack to the mid 20s where things have cleared out. The only concern that we'll be watching for is some low potential for freezing fog mainly east of I-35 into the morning hours.
Expect high temperatures to be even warmer on Saturday with readings on the lower deserts in the upper 70s.
Shallow freezing fog will be possible near the KCDS terminal Saturday morning. LLWS was left out of this TAF due to the low confidence of it occurring in this period or the next. The bigger impact may be on highs for Saturday with MOS coming in quite a bit warmer than various blends. This may be where lingering snow cover comes more into play and will run with the cooler blend numbers at this time.
1048 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 (This evening through Saturday) This afternoon, warmer south to southwest low level/surface flow has returned to West Central Texas, bringing warmer temperatures to the region. As of noon, temperatures are 7-13 degrees higher than 24 hours ago, and highs today will be in the low to mid 40s. Expect overnight lows tonight/tomorrow morning in the low to mid 20s with some south breezes continuing. Saturday, expect continued warming as the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens and south to southwest flow continues near the surface. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s with sunny skies.
206 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure is currently parked over Middle Tennessee and with clear skies, calm winds, and snow on the ground, temperatures have been able to drop efficiently down into the teens area wide with even a couple single digit readings. Surface obs and the nighttime microphysics shows some patchy freezing fog scattered through the CWA. Tonight won't be as cold with high pressure sliding off to the east and a light southerly component developing in the low levels.
140 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will move over the area today, and then continue east to the eastern U.
1119 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Temperatures were approaching the freezing mark this afternoon with nearly full sun and surface winds becoming more southerly as high pressure shifts southeast of the forecast area. Saturday is expected to be slightly warmer with little to no cloud cover and increasing south winds.
At the surface, high pressure will be over the region with a cool, dry air mass in place.
945 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Water vapor imagery shows a trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast. This trough will quickly push into the Intermountain West by 12Z Saturday and across the Rockies Saturday night. The associated cold front will pull across the area late tonight and Saturday. Ahead of the trough a moist westerly flow will impact the far west tonight. As the trough and front pull across the area there will be chances of snow over the south and east of the Divide.
338 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley today. The high will then move east of the region tonight.
1002 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Low pressure will continue to move to the east away from the area. High pressure and drier air will spread into the region tonight through the weekend with fair but seasonably cool weather.
1018 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 The cold front that produced a band of showers and isolated lightning storms earlier has moved south of the local area, crossing into southern Florida. Morning lows expected to fall into the low to mid 40s along and north of the I-4 corridor, with upper 40s to low to mid- 50s to the south. The earlier cold front has now crossed into southern Florida, with only isolated showers remaining as of 3Z. Shower activity continuing into the early morning hours, especially offshore of the Treasure Coast, despite the cold front now being over southern Florida.
1254 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure and drier air will remain over the region through the weekend with fair but seasonably cool weather.
1057 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Allowed the High Wind Warning, and the Winter Weather Advisory for the North Snowy Range Foothills to expire at 5 PM.
Winds aloft will strengthen overnight with low level wind shear developing before dawn in the lowest 2,000 to 5,000 feet over western New Mexico. Low level moisture may return to the lower Pecos valley with low clouds and/or fog expected near KROW before dawn. A Pacific trough and associated cold front will then sweep into the state Saturday evening with strong westerly gusts accompanying with its passage. Warmer conditions continue for the first half of the weekend, along with gusty southwest winds. An upper level trough crossing the central and southern Rockies will spread scattered to isolated snow showers over the northern mountains Saturday night with a few inches of accumulation possible mainly near the CO border.
304 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 Upper troughing from the upper Great Lakes into the central Gulf of Mexico will shift offshore of the Eastern Seaboard today with quasi- zonal flow evolving in its wake. A cold front located over the Florida Straits early this morning will shift away from the area later today. Relatively benign conditions are expected this weekend following the frontal passage with cooler temperatures being the primary impact. Given the robust pressure gradient between the building ridge and departing trough breezy conditions will exist, especially over the local waters and along the coastal interface. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid 60s along the Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, the RGB satellite imagery continues to depict a pesky area of low stratus over portions of SCntrl AR/Ern sections of NCntrl LA, that remains trapped beneath the center of the low level ridging that will remain anchored over these areas overnight. Given the current trends, as well as the potential for some of the developing FZFG to advect N across extreme Ern TX/NW LA, have hoisted a Freezing Fog Adv. Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for LAZ001>004- 010>012-017-018. Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for TXZ126-138- 151>153-165>167.
The Evening Update: Adjusted the timing of the WSW to 0100 to 1000 Sat as upper low off the Nrn CA coast is forecast to take a SEly track to the SFO Bay area and then generally towards KLAS, and not a faster more Ely track. The higher REF progs indicate the snow will not overspread the Sierra zones until after midnight, albeit mostly light upslope precip may precede the forecast of heavier snow showers later this evening. C-Gs off the coast indicate the instability along the frontal band where some of the higher REF progs suggest a brief thunderstorm or two could develop in our Nrn Sac Vly/NErn foothill zones.
The cold front and related precipitation continues to move slowly through the forecast area.
945 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Patchy freezing fog will be a concern once again tonight along the Republican River valley in southwest Nebraska and into Decatur, Norton, Graham and Sheridan counties in northwest Kansas. Moderating temperature trend will continue on Saturday as upper ridge axis moves across the area combined with breezy south winds at the surface. Expecting highs generally in the upper 40s, a bit cooler around McCook which may only reach the lower 40s. In addition to the precipitation, breezy to windy northwest winds will accompany the associated surface cold front.
The other thing that we will continue to watch is for the possible development of freezing fog. High pressure extends from the Texas northeastward into the Mid-South at this time. Some freezing fog may also develop late tonight and could become widespread overnight. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
Tonight, WAA increases as a ridge builds overhead tonight. Upper air pattern will consist of a 500 mb trough in the northern and central plains 12z Sun that will move into the upper Great Lakes 00z Mon and out of the area on Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the northern Rockies and another over the eastern U. The trough over the northern Rockies remains 12z Wed and then this moves into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Thu and into the lower Great Lakes by 12z Fri. On 12z Sat, there is a deep trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the eastern U.
246 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will bring a sunny, dry, and chilly weekend.
1134 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Scattered snow showers are expected tonight and Saturday with a crossing trough of low pressure.
1234 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 Low pressure will track well south of the Gulf of Maine overnight then exit southeast of Nova Scotia Saturday.
VFR through the period as high pressure settles over the region. High pressure will lead to another cold night with freezing temperatures expected for this one more night.
236 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will continue to build in from the west today and then move overhead tonight.
1008 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Currently - The leading edge of a strong cold front has just about completed pushing through all of the Keys. The cool air behind the front is not here yet, and winds are Short Term Update - The cold front will continue to push eastwards eventually clearing all Keys waters overnight. Cooler air will begin arriving in the Keys later in the overnight period and lows will try to nose down into the mid 60s. A prefrontal squall line has worked its way eastwards through a little more than half of Keys waters this evening, and is now stretched from the upper Keys to the offshore straits of the Lower Keys. Due to the recent cold front passage, expect MVFR ceilings to prevail with Marathon clearing before Key West.
Kavinsky (Issued 235 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: Positive tilt upper trough axis with embedded vorticity maxima will shift out of the state this evening.
Highs will be in the lower to middle 50s under sunny skies, except upper 40s northwest. Clear skies and calm winds overnight will allow temperatures to fall below freezing for most areas, with middle 20s north and upper 20s to around 30 south.
High temperatures should trend up slightly today, though the extent of the existing snowpack and very little vertical mixing are making it rather difficult to get above freezing for areas within the snowpack. Models continue to show strong low level warm air advection which is contributing to the freezing drizzle set up, particularly for the southeast half of the CWA. Model soundings support freezing drizzle for a lot of areas for at least a brief period of time, but the majority of ice accumulation is expected to be southeast of the Tri Cites. After today's trof departs, we return to northwest flow aloft which will transition to more zonal flow around mid week.
W/out that influence, and w/lows this morning considerably warmer than yesterday's, temperatures should increase appreciably over yesterday's, melting any remaining traces of snow and beginning to dry soils out. An upper trough is currently making landfall on the west coast near NoCal, and will dig down to the Four Corners by 06Z Sunday. The trough will move through the region Sunday, dropping a cold front in as it does so.
Under ridging aloft, continued low-level warm air advection should help push highs today about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings, despite lack of strong mixing. Precipitation may begin as light freezing drizzle for a few hours before the column saturates and turns to all snow.
Where radiative heat loss has been strongest, patchy fog and in some cases freezing fog has formed, primarily over areas where ice/snow is still on the ground. Clear skies and calm winds early tonight will allow temperatures to fall quickly during the evening, but as the high pressure ridge eventually drifts east of the area, increasing southerly surface winds may actually raise temperatures after midnight. It will still be cold as minimums once again fall below freezing.
511 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Intermittent IFR/LIFR conditions in freezing fog and low clouds will continue through mid morning, especially at HKS, JAN and GLH. Where radiative heat loss has been strongest, patchy fog and in some cases freezing fog has formed, primarily over areas where ice/snow is still on the ground. Clear skies and calm winds early tonight will allow temperatures to fall quickly during the evening, but as the high pressure ridge eventually drifts east of the area, increasing southerly surface winds may actually raise temperatures after midnight. It will still be cold as minimums once again fall below freezing.
Moisture in the low to mid levels may struggle a bit so some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible but not the most confident scenario with a fairly shallow near surface saturated layer roughly 1500 to 2000 feet deep. This might be more of a fog/stratus/mist issue than legitimate freezing drizzle. Some of the models are hinting at a 1-2 hour period of light freezing rain, closer to Chamberlain and Huron, but not great agreement on that either.
Additional weather systems midweek onward will bring a return of cooler conditions and gusty winds at times. This trough will zip across the Great Basin today and progress rapidly into the southern Rockies by late Saturday night. Much calmer conditions are in store for Sunday as high pressure ridging begins to take hold.
A trough of low pressure extended from the northern Great Lakes, south into the Ohio Valley. For North Platte, the MET and MAV guidance for today is 50 and 45 degrees for the high today. Precipitation chances will increase along and behind the front this evening into the overnight hours as the trough progresses across Nebraska and Kansas. Winds will increase behind the exiting trough overnight, but not be significant enough to produce blowing snow issues. Good subsidence behind the exiting trough Sunday, will lead to clear skies. Even with the cooler H85 temps aloft, good mixing behind the trough, will push highs into the mid 30s.
411 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley today then over the central Appalachains by Sunday providing dry but cold weather through the weekend.
Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees warmer today compared to yesterday but remain below normal. Warm air advection will increase across deep south Texas tonight as a 500mb trough developing across the western United States moves into the southwest United States. Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees warmer compared to this morning and will be slightly below normal to near normal across the Rio Grande Valley. The upper level trough is expected to move into southern New Mexico and west Texas Sunday. Breezy conditions will develop across the lower Texas coast Sunday even as a Pacific cold front moves into northwest Texas Sun afternoon.
Otherwise, with the ridge axis sliding east today, low-level return flow/warm advection will set up helping temps to recover into the 20s for most areas. Synoptic forcing associated with the upper trough along with some low-level warm advection and upper jet divergence will provide the bulk of the lift with this system. That said, a wild card will be if a bit more phasing between the upper troughs occurs and a pronounced fgen band can develop to enhance rates and amounts for some areas. The EPS/NBM continue to be on the lower side with QPF with mean QPF in the 0. A few of the ensemble members along with the higher resolution models indicate QPF up to 1/2 inch, in line with HREF ensemble max snow totals in the 4 to 6 inch range.
639 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley today then over the central Appalachains by Sunday providing dry but cold weather through the weekend.
612 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley today. The high will then move east of the region tonight.
253 AM MST Sat Feb 20 2021 Patchy freezing fog will be a concern once again tonight along the Republican River valley in southwest Nebraska and into Decatur, Norton, Graham and Sheridan counties in northwest Kansas. Moderating temperature trend will continue on Saturday as upper ridge axis moves across the area combined with breezy south winds at the surface. Expecting highs generally in the upper 40s, a bit cooler around McCook which may only reach the lower 40s. In addition to the precipitation, breezy to windy northwest winds will accompany the associated surface cold front.
629 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will bring a sunny, dry, and chilly weekend.
337 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Warmer weather will be on tap this weekend. Given the insulating blanket of clouds, current temps are considerably warmer than they have been in recent nights in the teens and lower 20s.
948 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will bring a sunny, dry, and chilly weekend.
Light lake effect snow showers and flurries will come to an end by early this afternoon as much warmer and drier air spreads over the Upper Great Lakes region from the west. Some warmer air aloft will not be able to mix down causing afternoon highs to remain much below normal from 20 to 25.
423 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 A strong high pressure builds east through the weekend.
/issued 343 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ We will sit under weak upper level ridging today as two upper waves begin to move east towards the CWA. Ahead of the waves south-southwesterly surface flow and plenty of sunshine will result in another warmer day for the region. By early tomorrow morning the associated Pacific cold front will begin to impact our area. More on that in Sunday morning will see an UL positively tilted trough positioned from AZ to NE thence curving northward toward a low pressure system over the Arctic.
The low clouds are progged to gradually expand to the N and E this mrng, mainly affecting locations along and E of the I-30/Hwy 67/167 corridor. Similar to Fri, the coldest highs today wl again where the highest snow cover exists, with highs topping out in the 30s. Models rmn consistent showing a positively tilted upr trof swinging thru the region late in the weekend.
This leads to some concern for potential freezing fog by morning, but forecast HRRR soundings really don't support the dense fog that would be required for impacts and will continue to not mention anything in the forecast for now.
A lee trough will strengthen in response, which will result in a tightening pressure gradient and breezy south winds developing from late morning through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be considerably warmer tonight, than the past couple of nights, with overnight lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
534 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 12Z TAFS An area of freezing fog has been meandering across the region early this morning resulting in IFR visibilities and ceilings at LCH and AEX. The freezing fog and low ceilings are expected to dissipate by 14Z leaving mostly clear skies through the remainder of the day. This has resulted in the development of some freezing fog and also helped slow the temperature plummet that was expected. After the fog and freezing temperatures this morning, we are looking for a pretty nice day compared to the past several with temperatures warming from near 50 to the mid 50s.
549 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 (Today through Sunday) Warmer temperatures are expected today with temperatures expected to get above freezing areawide. Most of the area should be above freezing through the night, but some areas in the west may be near or slightly below freezing, so some freezing fog will be possible.
A short wave trough is tracking down the CA coast early this morning and is showing up nicely on water vapor. This short wave trough is what is causing the showers this morning and we are seeing more widespread showers currently along a weak cold front which is roughly along I-80 at the moment. This trough will push southeast over the region over the next several hours and reach the Great Basin by late morning into the afternoon. Upper level ridging then builds in during the day today and that will bring decreasing clouds especially over the Valley. Most locations should see highs a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday.
The center of the upper low is moving farther east than indicated on models yesterday, and as a result a band of showers is moving a bit farther east than indicated as well. The upper low fills and opens to a trough this morning, quickly moving into Nevada by mid morning. A cooler air mass moves in as well today, with temperatures about 5 degrees below normal.