Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH. HELPING ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A NOTICEABLY WARMER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1235 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
AND PLUME WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGHS IN 40S ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND A LACK OF SNOWPACK. THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY UNNOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY HIGHS. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL CONUS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH DOES INJECT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHEST DBZ REMAIN IN THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS WE HAVE GOING IN THAT AREA BUT NOT EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH. LOWER LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS DURING THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW/SLEET AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
/issued 422 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A short wave ridge will be over the area today, with a transition to southwest flow aloft tonight as an upper level trough moves inland from the California coast. It will be warmer today, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 60s, with gusty south winds developing. With the increase in low level moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer overnight with lows mainly in the upper 40s.
Winter weather impacts will continue this afternoon and evening as an band of precipitation stretching from around Grangeville to Seeley Lake will be re-energized by an upper level trough currently sliding across Washington. Most areas will see a break in the snow by Sunday morning as the trough exits the area, though some higher elevations will continue to see showers through the day. Some MT valleys could even see patchy freezing fog in the morning hours, depending on how quickly the showers subside. The break in precipitation will be short-lived, as another wet Pacific trough takes aim at our area late Sunday.
307 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 ANOTHER NICE DECEMBER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Still expect plenty of sunshine today as upper ridge builds into the Midwest. Mixing down from 950mb results in temperatures that are closer to the warmer GFS MOS guidance.
345 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA AT MID-AFTERNOON KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE 20S NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BUT WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL LOUISIANA PARISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER 40S AT BEACH AND BAKER. GREATER SNOWPACK AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MUCH COOLER IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS MORNING NORTHWEST. LATEST REPORT WAS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT GLASGOW. FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ADVERTISES THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN PLAINS. WITH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST.
237 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 30 DEGREES EAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES ARIZONA ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. A BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE PHOENIX AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PREDOMINATES.
1022 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. SFC RIDGING IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER ERN AR/NCNTRL LA WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL FLOW MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
922 AM MST SAT DEC 19 2015 WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES ARIZONA ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. A BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE PHOENIX AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PREDOMINATES.
For today, as warmer temperatures advect over the state and south to southwest winds increase through the day, expect highs to bump up into the mid to upper 40s across the far northeast with lower 50s in the southwestern counties. Ahead of that system strong southwest flow will develop as a cold front pushes through the forecast area during the day. During the morning hours low level lift develops within the low level moisture already overspread across the area. Even given that this instability will be shallow it could support showers along and ahead of the passing cold front mainly in eastern KS during the evening and through the overnight.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY. AND WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
117 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR COVERING MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
TODAY WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 40S DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND A DECENT SOUTH BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION NOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. IRSAT SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS FORMING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 0730Z. LEANED TOWARDS A WARMER GFS/EC SOLUTION FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH IOWA WELL SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE NAM INITIALIZING VERY POORLY WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SOURCE REGION FOR OUR WARMER AIR ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION THIS MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE BAY AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT BEGAN TO PUSH ONSHORE AND AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED AND WEAKENED. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE MONTEREY BAY REGION NORTHEAST TOWARDS SACRAMENTO. A STRONGER EMBEDDED JET WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CARVES OUT A BROAD BAGGY TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS STORM WILL MARK A TANGIBLE SHIFT IN THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN BY INTRODUCING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE ELEMENT TO THE MIX. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
Low level forcing enhances along and ahead of a cold front moving southeast.
Mostly clear skies this afternoon and the southerly winds will actually help temperatures today to reach well above normal, with highs in the lower 40s across northern Missouri, and upper 40s and lower 50s further to the south. Mid level ridging then moves over the area for the 2nd half of the weekend, and will team up with the southerly winds at the surface to bring day time highs even warmer. Expect Sunday highs to range from the lower to middle 50s across the area.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
/ISSUED 1004 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A VERY NICE DECEMBER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR CLIMO HIGHS WILL OCCUR TODAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
203 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TARGETED AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
340 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT AS LEE TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AS SHORT- WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOV THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SC TRAIL THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW EVE/NIGHT GIVEN THE COND PRES DEF ON THE 280 AND 285 K SFC'S. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF DZ BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST OF I-94. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGHS. A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE FL PENINSULA. PLACING THE WFO MPX CWFA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WITHIN SWLY FLOW. BUT THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRIER IN COMPARISON. A STRETCHED-OUT LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE GRT LKS SUN.
430 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AGAIN. ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS CREATING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT DOES BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THOUGH WITH SNOW COVER EXPECT A STRONG INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS WE STRUGGLE TO MIX THESE WARMER READINGS DOWN ON A WIND THAT MAINTAINS A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE MILDEST AS A SURFACE TROF PASSES THROUGH AND WE DEVELOP A MORE FAVORABLE MIXING ENVIRONMENT THANKS TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF SUNDAY.
124 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
223 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A PLEASANT MID-DECEMBER AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE HELPING TO BOOST 20Z TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST SPOTS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE THAT HELPED KICK OFF THIS MOST RECENT WARMING TREND WAS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S NORTHWEST TO MID-40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
334 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
310 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED THEN FALL TO AROUND 20 BY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO THE MID-30S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY SUNDAY.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
As the trough swings across the States it will induce a bit of a low amplitude trough that will stretch across the continent through the mid-work week. And, while normally a words like, "low amplitude trough that will stretch across the continent.
316 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES TO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AS IT WEAKENS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND STARTS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE COAST/COASTAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S.
Temperatures moderately nicely this afternoon as the lee trough reorganizes, but high temperatures will be held back several degrees over the small snow field across Ford County, and along a Jetmore-Liberal line. Highs Sunday ahead of an associated cold front will likely reach around 60 to 65 just east of Dodge City, and slightly cooler west in the mid to upper 50s.
An approaching upper level system and associated cold front may aid in some showers later in the day on Sunday and into Sunday night but overall precipitation looks to be on the light side.
1225 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
With the high practically over us, temperatures will remain in the 40s today with abundant sunshine. Tonight will be another clear and cold night with lows in the low 30s. As the high moves off to the east on Sunday, expect high clouds to begin streaming in from the southwest in advance of a storm system that moves into the Plains. Broad scale progressive mid tropospheric flow pattern will see gradual upstream amplification and a developing trof, with ridging persisting off the southeast Atlantic coast.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. WITH A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REST OF THE US.
For today, some patchy areas of ground fog from Scott City to Hays is possible early this morning, otherwise skies will be clear this morning with upper level ridging. As lee troughing continues, light south to southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph by mid to late afternoon. Lows will be warmer with good mixing and thickening cirrus. Highs Sunday ahead of an associated cold front will likely reach around 60 to 65 just east of Dodge City, and slightly cooler west in the mid to upper 50s.
Temperatures moderately nicely this afternoon as the lee trough reorganizes, but high temperatures will be held back several degrees over the small snow field across Ford County, and along a Jetmore-Liberal line.
South winds will persist tonight, helping to keep the lower trop well mixed. This will lead to warmer lows tonight, likely only falling into the lower 40s out toward the Kansas and Missouri state line. The surface pressure gradient will become tight during the afternoon as low pressure strengthens over central Kansas.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BECOME STEADY AND MAY SLOWLY RISE BY DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY BUT EVENTUALLY REACH THE 50S AND EVEN 60S THIS WEEK. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN AND WINDS DIMINISH. BRIEF BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER RIDGE AXIS. MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A POCKET OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS ANTICYCLONE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OF A MILD AND WARMER DAY AS EASTERLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH HURON POSSIBLE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS REALLY ONLY A FRONT IN NAME. MOISTURE ON MODELS STILL DOES NOT SEEM TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT FLURRIES EITHER.
400 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE TRACKING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH MAINLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. BUT EXPECT THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE DAY. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND IN BEHIND IT A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CWA.
1127 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
/ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEEPENING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN TANDEM WITH AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE LYING SQUARELY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS BY HIGH NOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BACK TO TAKE ON A CYCLONIC NATURE AS RIDGING SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGHING PUSHES ONSHORE THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING ONSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES.
LEESIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH HPC ANALYZE STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL MONTANA.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS OREGON TODAY.
HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z.
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY. MODELS DO AGREE IN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES. PERIOD STARTS OFF A TOUCH COOLER AND ON THE DRY SIDE AS A SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ITS PLACE THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.
The High will drift east through the weekend as weak 50H ridging pushes out the remains of a trof associated with the Alberta clipper that brought the first glimpse of snow to parts of the area this morning.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH/BACK UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY BY LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WORKS IN UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. BRIEF/WK SFC RIDGING FOLLOWS TUE AHD OF NXT MORE POTENT AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AGAIN RICH LL MSTR FOR DEC XPCD TO CARRY NWD AHD OF ATTENDANT EWD SWEEPING FNTL ZONE W/RAIN LIKELY AGAIN WED FOLLOWED BY REPEAT WK SFC RIDGING THU-FRI BEFORE PATTN RELOADS YET AGAIN LT PD.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MAIN FCST CONCERN TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR EITHER DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR NOTHING AT ALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A CDFNT APPROACHES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF THIS DRIZZLE WL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND AS THE COLDER AIR OF THE PAST 36 HOURS MAY HAVE SENT ROAD TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. HAVE MENTIONED MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL N-CNTRL AND MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CNTRL WI.
222 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015 WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES ARIZONA ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE DID BRING IN SOME MENTION OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN LA PAZ AND MARICOPA COUNTIES SUNDAY AM AS THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AND THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BROAD BASE OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY INCLUDING THE NRN PLAINS.
Center of high pressure was positioned along the Gulf Coast this morning.
251 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SHORT LIVED AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TO BE REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AND THE LOWER 50S IN NORTHERN KANSAS. AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER THERE. BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY EVENING WE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA AND HEADING OFF TO THE EAST.