Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
634 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A slow moving area of low pressure will bring widespread rain showers with isolated thunder and cooler temperatures for the weekend. Cooler and wetter weather pattern is expected through the early half of the week and then warming and drying out by the weekend.
513 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 ridge in place over the pains with the axis of the ridge now centered over eastern CWA extending north to the Canadian border. Strong capping to north of warm front and very warm/dry conditions to south of it make it very unlikely that any storms will initiate along front. Deeply mixed boundary layer and weak instability will bring potential for high based thunderstorms mainly across western CWA where influence of ridge will be be weakest and heating the strongest.
/issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ Clear skies across the forecast area and 12Z upper-air analysis showing the center of the ridge over the region point towards continued quiet and dry weather across the region. Center of the ridge is also forecast to shift a bit further east but heights/thicknesses will remain fairly unchanged compared to today so we should be at or a degree or two cooler tomorrow afternoon compared to today. An upper ridge will dominate over the region through most of the period which will keep things hot and dry at least into mid week.
925 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Did a quick update to increase the PoPs a bit (staying in scattered coverage) over portions of NW/WC Illinois the rest of the evening into early overnight, as approaching WI upper low provides increasing ascent aloft within area of mid level moisture. Low level dry air feeding into area on east/northeast flow off Great Lakes high pressure is yielding high cloud bases and little in the way of measurable rainfall.
720 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. A reinforcing cold front will slip through the area this evening with winds shifting around to the NE. A large area of high pressure will begin to build in from the north overnight. Several days ago there was uncertainty with the closed upper low that forms at the base of the departing upper trough over the northeast this weekend with the potential for several days of inclement weather.
Isolated to scattered coverage of showers will persist this evening with the greatest coverage in Douglas County and over the higher terrain of southwest Oregon. Weak low pressure will move to the south of the area tonight.
An upper low will move inland tonight and Sunday with decreasing showers.
Temperatures in much of Lake county will drop to the lower to mid 30s which should be enough to produce areas of frost.
Cooler temps will carry over into Monday morning when lows will be in the 50s in multiple spots, especially on the Cumberland Plateau and Highland Rim.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ (Tonight and Sunday) Upper level ridging will continue to dominate across the Southern and Central Plains through Sunday.
359 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Highs today will be above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
Tonight Through Monday The pattern remains largely the same through the short term period as H500 ridging will hold firm from the Southern Plains northward to the Canadian border. East of the ridge, a cutoff low will meander southward from the Great Lakes toward the SE US. Other than a few brief disturbances working their way around the ridge or on the west of the upper low, little to no influence will be seen locally. Td values will remain in the lower to mid 60s F, keeping afternoon heat indices in check.
The mid to upper level ridge remains in place over the region, with high temperatures this afternoon topping out in the low to mid 90s for most location under mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift to southeasterly by late evening and this will begin to usher in an increase in moisture, with dewpoints by Monday afternoon about 10 degrees warmer than Sunday afternoon.
323 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain anchored across New England today. The flow around the high pressure will bring an easterly wind, which will help to keep temperatures below average for this time of year. After a cool start to the day in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s for highs. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with high pressure in control. The Tri-State on Monday will be situated to the north of a cut-off low across the Southeast states. A continued NE-E flow is forecast which will help limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 70s.
1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The upper level ridge will continue to slide eastward and break down through this afternoon.
249 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today and tonight, mainly south of Pittsburgh, thanks to approaching upper level low pressure. Expect showers to begin to fire in the southeast ridges during the predawn hours with terrain-aided convergence. However, areas near and south of the Mason-Dixon Line will be on the outer fringes of this better forcing, and thus the higher PoPs are placed here.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 62 84 61 83 / 30 20 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 81 59 81 / 30 20 40 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 84 58 81 59 81 / 30 20 30 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 56 74 56 76 / 60 60 60 20 20.
/Issued 931 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ Lowered temperatures a degree or two overnight in the FYV area and in the lower valley areas of southeast Oklahoma given latest guidance and based of this morning's lows.
Highs today will reach mid 60s most areas then head back toward normal on Monday with readings in the lower to mid 70s in many locations away from northeast gradient wind off Lake Ontario. A Rex block will dominate the pattern across the eastern United States for much of the week, with a stubborn closed low over the southeast states and a building ridge to the north across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Strong subsidence and dry air associated with high pressure surface and aloft will bring plenty of sunshine by day and clear, starlit skies at night. Lows Monday night will be in the lower 50s in most locations, with upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
336 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A lingering mid-level trough will maintain variable cloudiness and seasonably cool conditions today with few sprinkles possible, mainly across eastern Vermont.
121 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. Overall the forecast remains on track as a large area of high pressure continues to build from the north.
/EC/ Weak ridging over most of the southeast this evening, maintaining a mostly quiet weather pattern. Our CWA will also remain between mid level ridging to our west and a deepening trough to our east. Under clear skies and a light wind tonight temperatures will bottom out below normal again but, remain several degrees warmer than this morning. Temperatures Sunday are expected to reach the lower 90s at most locations which is slightly warmer than normal.
/Issued 1128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper level high pressure will continue to bring warm and quiet weather to North and Central Texas through Sunday night. A gradual increase in Gulf moisture will result in overnight lows tonight and Sunday night from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. The upper-level ridge looks to remain in place as the omega block pattern continues over the U. This will keep temperatures near to a little above normal, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the 70s each day. The strong subsidence aloft from this ridge will keep rain chances near zero.
For the overnight period, digging upper level energy in the form of a developing closed low will move southeast from the western Great Lakes toward the Tri-State region. Much below normal temperatures due to the proximity of the upper low and cloud cover, with highs near 70 to lower 70s. As this happens, upper-level troughing over the northeastern USA will begin to pinch off as upper-level ridging builds to the north of a closing upper-level low near near the Ohio Valley.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): There remains a subtle weakness on the southeast side of the 500mb ridge that remains anchored over Texas. This should amount to a no rain day with plenty of sun and temperatures recovering into the low to mid 90s. A much richer and deep moisture profile is expected to develop late tonight and Monday as easterly flow deepens with the approach of an weak low pinching off from the base of an upper trough over the Deep South. All models suggest a quick recovery of pwats with the GFS showing values approaching or even exceeding 2 inches over the Lower and Mid RGV Monday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight a tad warmer and a bit more humid as dew points gradually recover.
Similar to yesterday, there will be weak disturbances moving around the periphery of the aforementioned ridge, which will allow for isolated showers/storms over the northern half of Arkansas this afternoon.
A large 1030 mb high pressure system centered over southeast Canada will continue to supply cool/dry air on east/northeast flow into the Midwest. Highs should be several degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Little change overnight with clear skies and east flow, lows should dip into the low/mid 50s. While this is occurring, a strong upper level ridge over the Plains will edge east into the Midwest.
A very persistent upper level ridge will remain anchored across the central CONUS through at least mid/late in the work week.
West winds along the mountain ridges and below the San Gorgonio Pass currently gusting to 30-45 mph will gradually weaken through the morning. A slight warmup will occur through Monday as the trough across the western US becomes less amplified.
242 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 As of 2 AM, water vapor satellite shows an upper level low spinning down Lake Michigan. Mainly trace amounts of rain are expected due to the high bases and dry lower levels. However, support for this looks unimpressive under a building ridge aloft and have left out mentionable pops for now. A similar airmass as the past few days will be in place on the continued easterly flow out of high pressure to the northeast, supporting highs in a range from the mid 70s northeast to around 80 in the southwest.
Highs today will remain below normal reaching the mid 60s most areas, then highs on Monday will head back toward normal with readings in the lower to mid 70s in many locations away from northeast gradient wind off Lake Ontario. A Rex block will dominate the pattern across the eastern United States for much of the week, with a stubborn closed low over the southeast states and a building ridge to the north across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Strong subsidence and dry air associated with high pressure surface and aloft will bring plenty of sunshine by day and clear, starlit skies at night. Lows Monday night will be in the lower 50s in most locations, with upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
Highs today will reach mid 60s most areas then head back toward normal on Monday with readings in the lower to mid 70s in many locations away from northeast gradient wind off Lake Ontario.
Maximum temperatures this afternoon will be in the low 90s and low temperatures will cool down to the upper 60s and low 70s overnight.
A plume of somewhat higher mid level moisture wrapping around the southern edge of the ridge centered to the north combined with influence of a weak inverted trof moving from east to west over the north central Gulf of Mexico is expected to spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of south central Louisiana this afternoon.
252 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The upper level ridge that has been dominating our weather the past several days will move a shade to the east today taking a mid level moisture plume along with it. Upper level high pressure will remain the main feature of the forecast through the week.
204 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 With high pressure in control off the east coast of Florida, generally easterly flow will dominate for much of the day, keeping the west coast seabreeze from developing until later in the day.
In mid-levels, ridging is pushed westward as a deep H5 low drops through the eastern US. High temperatures today will remain near normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s. With increasing moisture, will expect lows tonight a bit warmer than the past several night have been. mainly in the lower 70s.
Weak northwest flow will persist across the region through tomorrow as an upper level low drops into the Ohio River Valley. Lows are expected to drop down into the lower 60s near the Tennessee River with upper 60s further west. By Sunday, mid-level trough is expected to dig south the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley as an associated weak surface front approaches from the north. By Monday, an upper ridge will situate over the Plains while the aforementioned low moves towards east Tennessee.
252 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Impressive upper low on water vapor imagery over far southern Lake MI will continue to dive into the southeast US and become cutoff over the next few days.
An upper low will move southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast states early in the week. This will result in unsettled and cooler conditions with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. Also, weak short wave troughs rotating through upper trough may provide some lift. Temperatures should be a little cooler than previous couple of days due to increasing low level moisture and weak cold advection. the moisture advection will increase especially across the north and east Midlands and a weak cold front will move near the Upstate. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. In addition a cut off upper level low pressure system descends into the Southern Appalachians.
447 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain anchored across New England today. The flow around the high pressure will bring an easterly wind, which will help to keep temperatures below average for this time of year. After a cool start to the day in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s for highs. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with high pressure in control. The Tri-State on Monday will be situated to the north of a cut-off low across the Southeast states. A continued NE-E flow is forecast which will help limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 70s.
Tonight and Sunday Canadian high pressure will shift very slowly east through Sunday, allowing for another round of cool temperatures tonight, then increasing southeast winds and a gradual warm-up on Sunday. Lows tonight should only be a few degrees warmer than last night, but still cold enough in north central and far northeast WI for patchy frost.
Temperatures on Monday will be similar to those on Sunday, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to mid 90s across the area.
High pressure to remain in control today with deep dry air in place. Relatively quiet weather will continue through the short term period with broad high pressure in control and with H5 ridging aloft. Winds will remain light, but will veer a little more to east on Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure shifts east.
224 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The subtropical ridge axis was situated from the Big Bend Country of West Texas north and east across the Central Plains. A persistence-type forecast will lead to highs in the mid and upper 90s across central and south central KS while highs over southeast Kansas top out in the low to mid 90s. A cold front will sag south toward into the Central Plains remaining north of our forecast area but helping to break down the persistent ridge. * VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs * Gusty winds and LLWS to impact central/south-central KS Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will keep a modest southerly flow going across the Central Plains over the next 24 hrs.
A large upper trough is in place across much of the western CONUS. There will be a weak trailing short wave in the southern end of the trough that will track across the forecast area tonight which will help keep windy conditions going over Imperial and breezy conditions elsewhere. The front, such as it is, is advertised to fizzle out over eastern AZ Sunday with weak upper troughing left behind. On Monday, weak lingering upper troughing continues over our area but just enough moisture advances westward for a return of slight chance PoPs to our easternmost areas. Despite the presence of the troughing, surface temperatures don't change much.
324 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The blocking pattern that has been in place for a few days will remain with a sharp upper level ridge axis extending from the western Great Lakes to TX.
Some slightly better rain chances will return tomorrow as an upper trough dips out of the Great Lakes into the Midwest. KBNA/KMQY could catch one, too, but the low confidence precludes a prevailing inclusion at this point.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Upper level troughing was over the east and west coast early this morning, while ridging was in Central Canada and the Plains. At the sfc, large and sprawling high pressure was covering much of Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes keeping our region quiet in the weather department. The high pressure from eastern Canada will sink southward into New England, while still maintaining control of the Great Lakes. Readings will be in the low to mid 30s in those areas, with mid and upper 30s most other areas, maybe lower 40s in coastal regions. Upper-level ridging currently centered over the central U.
An upper level ridge is moving east across the region today, with the ridge axis in MN by tomorrow. The main question mark at this time is warmer air aloft and capping.
In the upper levels, a trough continues to dig into the Southeast.
1125 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Periodic showers are possible south of Pittsburgh on Sunday as an upper-level trough lingers. While the aforementioned surface cold front will be south of the forecast area, convergence and flow up the low- and mid-level frontal boundary will help generate showers late tonight for areas south and east of Pittsburgh. As the upper-level trough mentioned above phases with 500mb closed off low, showers will become heavier south and east of Pittsburgh. On average, a quarter to a half inch of rain is expected near Morgantown/WV ridges. The trough is expected to weaken and drift south late Sunday night as high pressure builds over the Midwest and extends into the Great Lakes. Building high pressure over New York will bring mostly quiet, dry weather Monday.
Otherwise, expect the trend for hotter temperatures to continue today with readings reaching the lower 90s, while lows tonight dip back to relatively comfortable levels in the mid to upper 60s under mostly clear skies. Deep layer dry air will hold firm much of the week as our region remains on the eastern periphery of a mid level ridge.
1226 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Canadian high pressure will build across the area through Monday night.
The current synoptic pattern consists of a cutoff low over Lake Michigan, a narrow, highly amplified ridge over the Plains that extends well into Central Canada and a deep trough over the Western US. The trough over the Plains will become broader as it shifts East, becoming oriented from Lake Superior, Southward into East Texas by Midweek.
335 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Mid/upper level trof will continue to dive south-southeast through from northeast IN into southwest OH today. Consequently, cooler and less humid conditions should become the rule as north-northeast winds become more prominent. Most locations will stay in the lower half of the 80s, despite abundant sunshine. Cut-off low will meander around the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through the end of the work week. H5 ridging will build north/west of this low over the FA.
Did a quick update to increase the PoPs a bit (staying in scattered coverage) over portions of NW/WC Illinois the rest of the evening into early overnight, as approaching WI upper low provides increasing ascent aloft within area of mid level moisture. Low level dry air feeding into area on east/northeast flow off Great Lakes high pressure is yielding high cloud bases and little in the way of measurable rainfall.
Moderate instability will set up ahead of the trough, with adequate shear in place. A cold front will be passing through the CWA on Monday. Temps look to top out in the 80s to near 90 during the day as southerly winds ahead of the front kick in higher humidity values with Td's in the low 60s.
250 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The large area of high pressure at the surface centered east of Lake Superior this morning, will maintain the quiet weather for most of the area through tonight. The upper level ridge axis is expected to shift slowly from the Missouri River Valley into the Upper Mississippi River Valley today and tonight. As this occurs, short wave troughs coming out of the Pacific Northwest trough will start to climb up the back side of the ridge. A stagnant upper flow pattern will persist through mid-week with troughing slowly working across the Pac Northwest into the northern Rockies and upper level ridging across the Upper Midwest.
A broad and unusually equatorward upper level southern stream trough reaching from the northern Gulf of Mexico southward into Old Mexico and the Northwest Caribbean Sea will move little over the next several days.
Weather across southeast Texas will mainly be dominated by upper ridging stretching from Mexico across the Plains/Midwest into the Great Lakes. Closer to the surface, we'll be in a general east to southeast flow regime with high pressure situated across a good part of the eastern U. Better rain chances will probably have to wait until the weekend once ridging slightly weakens and a deeper, more moist southerly flow becomes better established. As high pressure over the NE U.
1006 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A slow moving area of low pressure will bring widespread rain showers with isolated thunder and cooler temperatures for the weekend. Cooler and wetter weather pattern is expected through the early half of the week and then warming and drying out by the weekend. /sb 06Z: Cool upper low traversing the region will continue to bring bands of light showers through 09z. Bands of showers look to wrap around the low into the northern mountains on Sunday with partial clearing across Idaho and Spokane promoting hit or miss showers and a slight chance for a weak thunderstorm.
Temperatures trend cooler than average this week. Our region sits under the influence of a strong upper level low positioned over the the Pacific Northwest. Surface pressure is rising as low level westerly winds continue to advect cooler air across the Continental Divide. The left exit region of the upper level jet moves over Southwest Montana today, as the closed low begins to move eastward. Transient upper level ridging follows on Monday, providing a fair weather day with slightly warmer temperatures nearing 70F.
As of 2 AM, water vapor satellite shows an upper level low spinning down Lake Michigan. Mainly trace amounts of rain are expected due to the high bases and dry lower levels. However, support for this looks unimpressive under a building ridge aloft and have left out mentionable pops for now. A similar airmass as the past few days will be in place on the continued easterly flow out of high pressure to the northeast, supporting highs in a range from the mid 70s northeast to around 80 in the southwest.