Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1140 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Central and Southern Plains, with a trough over the West Coast. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover moving onshore ahead of the trough. Lows will be similar to last night, falling into the low 50s and upper 40s. Winds west of the trough will be from the west and light. To the east of the trough southerly winds will be a bit stronger, but remain slower than today. Wednesday night the trough will move through the rest of the forecast area, causing the winds to turn to the northwest.
Broad southwest flow aloft will continue to foster some high cloudiness through the day with otherwise dry conditions, though a stray shower or two could occur near the Cascade Crest in Washington, nearer an approaching upper trough. Seasonable temperatures to persist with highs in the 70s to low 80s in the lower elevations, and mainly 60s in the mountains. Southwest flow today ahead of an approaching upper level trough. A slow moving cold front will arrive in the Washington Cascades early Wednesday and then take through Wednesday night to pass across the forecast area.
Weak lee troughing will continue through the overnight period. Overnight minimums will be slightly warmer as a result of the clouds. For Wednesday, the lee troughing pattern will continue. Our southeastern zones may see slightly cooler highs in the 70s should the morning clouds linger the longest there.
A weak mid to upper level trough near the Ozarks will keep Beta moving to the northeast with a dry northwest flow aloft moving into south Texas providing a much drier air mass.
A weak wave or trough is moving through the region today bringing breezy winds and mostly mountain isolated showers with very light rain with little to no accumulation. Wednesday winds remain breezy ahead of a trough/weak cold front approaching the area.
Think the dry air in the low to mid levels will win out and prevent much in the way of moisture from falling in our CWA, and even if we do manage to squeeze out a few showers, it doesn't appear to warrant 20% PoPs at this time. Aside from any isolated rain showers that may develop, high clouds will continue to stream in from the west and southwest for the remainder of the day into the overnight, which will limit optimal radiational cooling and keep lows a tad warmer compared to previous nights. This will likely have some impact on high temperatures, so highs are a few degrees cooler toward the TN border vs other areas to the north.
324 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will be in charge tonight. Meanwhile,an elevated warm front will be lifting north along this front in the afternoon. A slowly moving area of low pressure will drift through Minnesota Wednesday Night. A positively tilted upper level short wave trof will move into the area. The aforementioned fronts will still be nearby for the trof to work with and will generate showers and storms.
Given the available moisture and ascent available from the low, still expect scattered showers to develop across southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois tonight into Wednesday evening before moving out late Wednesday night as the upper low lifts to the northeast.
Highs today remain in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the 50s. It is anticipated that this storm will continue to meander just inland for the next 12 hours or so and then proceed NE along the North Texas coast at which point it will start to weaken to a depression as it approaches the lower MS Valley. Moisture will continue to stream into the area over the cooler air mass that has been in place across the area leading to weak isentropic lift. Cloud cover and light rain will keep high temperatures on the cooler side with highs in the low 70s.
Wednesday looks like a glorious day as upper trough passes with little fanfare.
High pressure centered over the Carolina piedmont will maintain a breezy E/NE flow but not as windy as yesterday.
With the higher surface moisture and cloud cover, overnight low temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight compared to last night but remain right around seasonal normals. Temperatures tomorrow should be very similar to what was experienced today, with temperatures warmer to the west and cooler to the east due to the morning cloud cover and low level moisture. /WCI Flow regime across the CONUS is largely tame today with mild ridging moving eastward across the central part of the country.
Wednesday will feature highs in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies and light southerly winds into the afternoon.
225 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through late Wednesday.
/Issued 735 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020/ An upper ridge will continue over the forecast area through much of the period. Tropical Storm Beta is forecast to hang around the TX coast and an upper trough will develop over the lower MS River Valley.
108 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 A large area of high pressure extending from the Upper St.
A cold front moves through the forecast area this evening with some north to NE winds behind it. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with mainly dry weather.
Overnight lows will stay in the mid to low 60s, with afternoon highs staying in the low 70s. Outside of the nice, cooler weather, TS Beta will continue to be a big rain producer for our area over the short-term.
Then, clouds will clear, during the day, and afternoon highs will again be mainly in the 80 to 85 range; that's still cooler than usual late September highs. Models this cycle now delay the weak cold front until Tuesday.
An area of low pressure aloft was located over northeast Oklahoma early this afternoon. Computer models continue to show scattered rain chances across mainly southern MO both tonight and on Wednesday, with the low pressure system tracking east across the area on Wednesday.
The upper level ridge over the region this morning will continue to break down through the next 24 hours with increasing clouds likely across the forecast area as the remnants of tropical storm Beta work their way across the northern Gulf coast. We'll see temperatures a few degrees warmer on Wednesday, but the cloudy conditions (especially across western regions) will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery displays a mid-level short wave trough tracking east across the upper Midwest. Similar conditions will remain in place across the region Wednesday, though with a little more high cloud cover especially across our southern cwa as a mid-level trough drifts slowly east across the lower Missouri and lower Ohio Valley regions.
A weak cold front is on track to cross the area late this afternoon and evening bringing the possibility of a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. A weak cold front will pass through this evening with a very small increase in winds and a small chance for light rain showers mainly over the mountains.
Terrific day outside! The upper ridge is gradually shifting eastward while high clouds are beginning to encroach the southwestern forecast area. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 75 60 71 63 / 10 10 30 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 75 59 75 61 / 10 10 10 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 54 76 58 74 60 / 10 10 10 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 76 53 76 58 / 0 0 0 30 40.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 113 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
Upper level flow stays rather flat over the central Plains and a ridge trying to build over the Four Corners. Regardless, southwest flow at H85 advects warmer air into the region with temps rising a broad 2-3C across Nebraska. With less filtering of sunshine expected tomorrow, trended toward warmer end of guidance for max temps. Highs range from mid 80s near the Pine Ridge to lower 90s central and southwest. Brief downslope flow at H85 late morning and early afternoon would support locally warmer, drier, windier conditions, especially in the panhandle.
140 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through late Wednesday.
These will continue through the day as a weak trough crosses northern Arizona. The remainder of the week will feature warmer temperatures and dry weather.
201 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. High pressure with smoke filtered sun this afternoon.
High pressure begins to nose back in behind the exiting system late Wednesday night.
322 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Scattered showers have formed over the higher terrain and will linger into the early evening. At the surface, low pressure trough will be over Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Enough moisture may linger over the higher terrain south of I-70 for a few weak showers.
756 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Dry and warm conditions should persist under high pressure through late week. Precipitation chances should then increase late this weekend with the approach of a cold front. The dry and quiet pattern will continue tonight as high pressure remains over the Ohio Valley. Continued high pressure will lead to another mostly sunny day on Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more upper level cloud cover than today as the flow aloft backs slightly.
315 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 A weak cold front will move through the area late this afternoon and evening producing some isolated showers and perhaps a couple weak thunderstorms. Slightly cooler conditions will prevail for Wednesday behind the front with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
Less shower and thunderstorm activity is expected on Wednesday due to the arrival of drier air, but isolated cells will still develop over the high terrain, particularly the Sangre de Cristo mountains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, producing gusty winds but little to no rain, will be found in the afternoons and evenings over and near the higher terrain through Wednesday.
641 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Warming trend begins as high pressure nudges eastward.
618 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain near the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday as Tropical Cyclone Teddy moves through portions of Atlantic Canada while becoming post-tropical. High pressure then slowly drifts off the southeast coast later this week into this coming weekend.
707 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will be in charge tonight. Meanwhile,an elevated warm front will be lifting north along this front in the afternoon. A slowly moving area of low pressure will drift through Minnesota Wednesday Night. A positively tilted upper level short wave trof will move into the area. The aforementioned fronts will still be nearby for the trof to work with and will generate showers and storms.
1005 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Warming trend begins as high pressure nudges eastward.
951 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will be in charge tonight. Meanwhile,an elevated warm front will be lifting north along this front in the afternoon. A slowly moving area of low pressure will drift through Minnesota Wednesday Night. A positively tilted upper level short wave trof will move into the area. The aforementioned fronts will still be nearby for the trof to work with and will generate showers and storms.
938 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday as Tropical Cyclone Teddy moves through portions of Atlantic Canada while becoming post- tropical. High pressure then slowly drifts off the southeast coast later this week into this coming weekend.
737 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of this week, providing dry and cool conditions.
Meanwhile, strong easterly breezes persist in the wake of a frontal passage yesterday coupled with a strong continental high pressure currently sitting across the eastern U. BYX radar showed some of the highest concentration of non-biological echoes taking off from the Lower Keys, including the Marquesas Keys. With that being said, there remains some moisture trapped in the lowest levels which when combined with some of the wind surges occurring this evening, has allowed for some isolated showers to develop.
535 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Dry and warm conditions should persist under high pressure through late week. Precipitation chances should then increase late this weekend with the approach of a cold front. The dry and quiet pattern will continue tonight as high pressure remains over the Ohio Valley. Continued high pressure will lead to another mostly sunny day on Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more upper level cloud cover than today as the flow aloft backs slightly.
It's unlikely that much rain is making it to the ground except for across the higher terrain, seeing as valley humidities are generally in the upper teens or low 20s. The upper pattern then ushers in a drier air mass with strong ridging building in over the weekend.
326 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Its been awhile since I wrote this, but there is scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain moving east of the mtns. A few storms were also noted over the lower elevations of the I-25 corridor with a few updrafts even over northeastern El Paso county. Scattered showers and isolated thunder will continue moving east over the higher terrain and across mainly the I-25 corridor. Storms will have the potential to linger until about mid evening over the plains, mainly across the higher elevations of the Raton Mesa over eastern Las Animas county. Tonight's mins should fall into mainly the lower 50s across the eastern plains, with some 50s along the mtns/plains interface.
With the advancement of the remnants of Beta into the Lower Mississippi Valley, this should allow for deeper moisture advection across the area over the next couple of days.
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 As of 22z, a broad area of high pressure sits roughly centered over our region while Tropical Depression Beta is situated along the Texas coastline. Moving forward into the period, the ridging aloft will gradually begin to weaken as a trough approaches our area from the west.
534 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 As of 22z, a broad area of high pressure sits roughly centered over our region while Tropical Depression Beta is situated along the Texas coastline. Moving forward into the period, the ridging aloft will gradually begin to weaken as a trough approaches our area from the west.
Drier weather returns Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures.
A weak trough crossing the region has combined with mid-level moisture in place to produce shower and storm activity this afternoon. The remainder of the week will feature warming temperatures and dry conditions as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest.
A few rumbles of thunder may occur over the higher terrain near the Mullen Fire this afternoon and early evening, but wetting rains are not anticipated.
Its been awhile since I wrote this, but there is scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain moving east of the mtns. A few storms were also noted over the lower elevations of the I-25 corridor with a few updrafts even over northeastern El Paso county. Scattered showers and isolated thunder will continue moving east over the higher terrain and across mainly the I-25 corridor. Storms will have the potential to linger until about mid evening over the plains, mainly across the higher elevations of the Raton Mesa over eastern Las Animas county. Tonight's mins should fall into mainly the lower 50s across the eastern plains, with some 50s along the mtns/plains interface.
Seasonably warm yet comfortable day in progress compliments of light southerly return flow on western flank of Ohio Valley high pressure, and abundant sunshine albeit continued hazy from the western wildfires. Considerable clouds and widespread rain was noted over portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of TX/LA Gulf Coast attendant to Tropical Depression (TD) Beta. Adding in the increase in cloudiness should equate to a very similar to perhaps a skosh cooler day with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
Overall the current fcst looked pretty good as high pressure continues to slowly weaken as Beta begins it's turn northeast favoring moisture advection across the Deep South. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 75 60 71 63 / 10 10 40 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 75 60 72 62 / 0 10 20 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 54 76 59 72 60 / 0 10 20 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 74 56 73 57 / 0 0 10 30 40.
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. Otherwise, no issues with high pressure centered over Tennessee-Kentucky dominating our weather.
As of 22z, a broad area of high pressure sits roughly centered over our region while Tropical Depression Beta is situated along the Texas coastline. Moving forward into the period, the ridging aloft will gradually begin to weaken as a trough approaches our area from the west.
A mild/warm Fall weather pattern will persist for several days Aloft, the pattern reflected weak ridging across the plains states, while to the south remnants of Beta were lifting north from south Texas. Visible satellite shows an expansive cloud shield from south TX northward into eastern KS associated with the upper trough. Temps through the remainder of the workweek will remain above normal with highs in the 80s/around 90F in a warm airmass influenced by ridging aloft.
This will allow those locations to warm into the mid-to-upper 70s, with locations south of the interstate stuck in the low 70s due to clouds/precip. Overnight lows will cool into the low 50s across the region.
Can't rule out some patchy drizzle creeping more north and east toward the KS turnpike given the the low level saturation with the tropical airmass.
a mid/upper level low was continuing to develop across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with scattered areas of light rain/drizzle ongoing within the deep tropical moisture across much of the CWA. rain chances will continue to be possible over the CWA as the upper low holds over the region. along the western periphery of the warm advection and east of the developing upper level trof axis. behind the trof axis. Forecast lows in the upper 50s in far Northwest Arkansas to the lower 60s elsewhere over the CWA will be possible.
342 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 RAP analysis had an upper ridge over the Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.
Overall the current fcst looked pretty good as high pressure continues to slowly weaken as Beta begins it's turn northeast favoring moisture advection across the Deep South. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 60 71 63 76 / 20 40 70 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 60 72 62 76 / 10 20 50 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 76 59 72 60 76 / 10 20 50 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 56 73 57 76 / 0 10 30 40 50.
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure over the southeast U. today will move east out into western Atlantic Ocean during tonight and Thursday while the remnants of Beta move northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
325 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Clouds on the increase today will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region, otherwise dry conditions continue.
A moist and somewhat cooler airmass has spread into central and much of southwest Kansas through the early morning hours, in the form of areas of fog and widespread stratus.
Sunshine and a stronger 850 mb thermal ridge will bring warmer highs today in the low to mid 80s. Tonight, although the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens, mostly clear skies and light winds are expected which will help with radiational cooling. so we should have cooler lows in the mid to upper 50s.
An upper level long wave trough will remain draped from S TX up toward the Great Lakes today through Thu. Models are in pretty good agreement with moisture being limited to the lower levels, thus did not want to mention precip in the forecast. However, with the trough aloft, also did not want to go with zero pops. With the drier airmass in place, daytime highs will be slightly warmer. Radiational cooling will be maximized tonight under mostly clear skies and light winds which will lead to cooler nighttime lows.
350 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure near the Ohio River Valley will remain in place through Thursday afternoon.
121 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of this week, providing dry and cool conditions. High pressure continues to dominate over the area with light winds. Still expect overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which remains below average for this time of year. The deep layer ridge will weaken and move east of the area on Wednesday. An upper trough over the southern MS River Valley is shown by all models to pick up the remnants of Beta and slowly move the associated deep layer moisture northeast toward the region through the period.
An upper trough to our east along with the remnants of TS Beta over SE TX will keep our area on the dry side the rest of this week. The exception to the dryness will be an isolated storm or two in the higher terrain both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Mid level ridging over the SW U. This along with a strengthening thermal ridge will send temperatures back above normal which is something we haven't seen in a while.
345 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will remain across our region through tonight.
By that point in time, NAM/GFS time-height sections show the dry air in the lower levels today becoming more moist. Another trough diving through the Midwest Thursday night will bring additional rains to the region, but again with higher pops closer to the deeper moisture associated with those remnants.
A Strong Cold Front To Bring Increased Fire Weather Danger Thursday. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler today across the region. An upper ridge moves through tonight and Thursday morning which will bring warmer temperatures with it. A cold front will move through the western zones of the forecast area midday Thursday and reach the North Dakota border in the late afternoon. An upper trough moves through the area Thursday Night that may have enough moisture for a chance of showers.
Then, clouds will clear, during the day, and afternoon highs will again be mainly in the 80 to 85 range; that's still cooler than usual late September highs.
Wednesday will feature highs in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies and light southerly winds into the afternoon. With that out of the way Thursday will be slightly cooler behind this system, but skies will begin to scatter leaving behind partly sunny skies in the afternoon.
As for temperatures, they will depend on the thickness of the cloud cover and coverage of the showers with the coolest temperatures over southwest MO, in the low 70s. Rest of the forecast area should be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 70s today. Upper level ridge will begin to build back in on Thursday with warm southerly winds returning to the region once again.
A 500 mb trough over the Plains will move slowly eastward, passing across the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. The models are having a hard time determining how much moisture from the remnants of tropical storm Beta will be picked up by this trough. The models indicate persistent 850 mb ridging over our area through Wednesday, which should limit qpf to less than a tenth of an inch. Highs will be mainly in the low to mid 70s, with lows in the 50s through Thurs.
SHRA will continue over much of AR in response to an upper low passing just NW of AR and entraining moisture from the remnants of TS Beta. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail during this period.
This may lead to a warmer day on Thursday with highs in the lower 80s.
Cool front will drop through the area late tonight into Wednesday morning with cooler conditions and breezy NW winds during the day. Warm air advection will result in a much warmer day on Thursday, although reduced insolation from haze/wildfire smoke may result in temperatures failing to reach forecast highs.