Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DDV (Issued 245 PM CST Tue Mar 1 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure builds in for a quiet night across the area. Will be watching a cold front for Wednesday with some mid/upper level jet action riding in from the northwest. Some loss of cloud ice may result in a bit of freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain especially in the northern cwa. In the wake of the cold front passage in the afternoon northwest winds will bring some cold advection into the area with north to northeast winds right into Wednesday night.
1043 PM EST Tue Mar 1 2022 Currently - High pressure aligned along the northwestern Gulf Coast is maintaining gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. This flow is keeping cooler and drier conditions across the area with temperatures near or slightly below 70 and dew points in the upper 50s. A ridge axis expanding eastward across the southeastern United States and into the Atlantic will result in winds generally clocking from northwest to north to northeast and increasing moderately.
After a sunny and warmer day across the forecast area today with highs in the 60s, temperatures were slowly dropping into the 40s to lower 50s with skies still clear. A weak inverted trough at the surface shifts eastward slowly overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 43 74 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 45 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 43 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 41 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Jet remains positioned well to our north despite troughing over the eastern CONUS (a sign of the positive Arctic Oscillation, which typically has a poleward contraction of the jet) and a surface based high is still positioned to our west.
After a quiet start to the evening, will be watching next short wave trough dropping into the region in persistent northwest flow. Temperatures will be big factor and seems like trends have been for a slightly warmer profile overall. This could translate to lower of a freezing precipitation threat but still seeing loss of ice toward in model soundings so threat for at least patchy mix possible.
/issued 640 PM EST Tue Mar 1 2022/ Forecast remains unchanged as high pressure continues to settle across the peninsula providing dry and cool overnight conditions.
High pressure centered to our southwest results in a dry northwest flow through the day. The overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
1040 PM MST Tue Mar 1 2022 Weak high pressure over the Intermountain West will slowly move eastward the next two days, bringing a flattened ridge axis over western and central Wyoming. Some moisture in the flow continues light snow showers to the northwest mountains today and tonight, with the showers diminishing after midnight as the ridge axis pushes moisture into SW Montana. With the ridge axis moving over the area on Wednesday, similar temperatures are expected with highs into the upper 50s and 60s.
WNW flow aloft will remain over the area, tonight through Wednesday as a sfc lee trough becomes better organized.
1230 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region through mid-week.
Broad, general troughiness remains in place in the mid-levels on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures are expected, with highs near 80 interior and mid 70s along the immediate coast.
A weak upper level low pressure trough over southern New Mexico will edge east across the Texas South Plains Wednesday prolonging periods of mid and high clouds until late Wednesday. /issued 226 PM CST Tue Mar 1 2022/ Temperatures today are still on track to top out in the lower 70s across much of the area with 1:30 PM observations on the West Texas Mesonet showing temperatures in the mid-60s. Winds tonight should remain relatively light as we are currently under an upper ridge. The upper ridge will amplify some tomorrow as an upper trough moves towards the area from the desert southwest. With the ridge somewhat amplifying, temperatures will be 1 or 2 degrees warmer tomorrow compared to today.
This front will move lift north today leaving high pressure to be in control across the southeast U. Temperatures will be quite warm for early March with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Discussion: The pattern has not been changing much and we will continue to be under the upper level broad low amplitude Eastern US trough for the short term period. A weak and moisture starved cold front will sag south toward our area and will be just north of our SW VA counties by the end of the period, but will just bring a few mid clouds to our far north late in the period. The low RH and winds will be highlighted in the FWF.
A dry cold front continues to wash out over southern Indiana, and the mid-level deck associated with it will be gone by daybreak. Low-level thickness progs suggest max temps a degree or two warmer than Tuesday. Another dry cold front will make a run at the Ohio Valley tonight, again with minimal impact on sensible wx.
815 PM MST Tue Mar 1 2022 Sprawling upper ridge will be the dominant upper feature through the short term period.
Following some patchy morning fog, expect Sunny skies as High pressure builds in from the West today with a dry Northwest steering flow. Cool morning low temps in the 40s will rise about 30-40 degrees to highs this afternoon in the upper 70s/near 80 degrees over inland areas, while a weak sea breeze along the Atlantic Coast will hold Max temps in the lower 70s at the beaches. Mainly clear skies and high pressure ridge directly overhead will lead to another cool night with lows in the 40s over inland areas to near 50 degrees along the Atlantic Coast.
1253 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Light precipitation will be possible this evening with the passage of a cold front. Light rain is expected to continue through midnight for portions of our region as a trough and its associated cold front advances from the north. Despite the presence of the cold front, early morning temperatures for Wednesday will still range a few degrees above the climatological average with the lingering clouds.
1208 AM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 Current satellite imagery shows just some mid/high clouds moving over the High Plains with surface observations showing very warm readings this afternoon. Expect quiet and warm conditions will persist through tomorrow with lows tonight generally 30 to 35 and highs tomorrow ranging from around 70 along the NE/SD border to the low/mid 70s along and south of Interstate 80. Temperatures to the north will be feeling the effects of a cold front pushing down from the northeast.
An upper level ridge will slide over western Kansas Thursday with an area of low pressure strengthening across eastern Colorado at the surface. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will be digging into the western United States with an upper level low entering California Thursday.
517 AM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 The short term starts off with a mid level ridge over the western CONUS. The band could initially feature some sleet/freezing rain/freezing drizzle, especially over the western fringes of the pcpn where the snow growth region will be marginally saturated. Right now we're forecasting from 1 to 2 inches with the highest amounts probably over NC SD. Starting late Thursday evening, we see increasing low level moisture in BUFKIT soundings, with the NAM saturated through the lowest 4 to 6kft initially, though that drops to between 3 and 4kft by daybreak. There will be broad isentropic upglide noted through the day even in the low levels, but a lack of ice introduction means the concern is predominantly freezing drizzle.
VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere. /issued 337 AM CST Wed Mar 2 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be on the northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over the bay of Campeche during the period. Dry weather will dominate over nearly all of the BRO CWFA, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out over the lower Texas coastal waters on Thursday.
243 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Most of the forecast area remains clear this morning as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Warm advection will continue under the ridge so highs may be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Some high clouds will spread over the highway 40 corridor today as moisture spills over the northern periphery of the ridge. Additional cloud cover is expected tonight ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. The ridge will slide east of the Divide tomorrow as the trough continues eastward, allowing southwest flow to become established. The higher end of the guidance is still shy of record temperatures tomorrow afternoon, which could be due to the expected cloud cover.
KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered, light freezing rain and snow showers early this morning.
A few showers may linger into this evening, but otherwise a cold front sagging southward will bring falling temperatures and high temperatures limited to the 30s on Thursday.
Thursday should be quiet as a high pressure system moves into the upper Midwest. Slightly colder temperatures are expected to accompany this high, though high temperatures will remain in the upper teens and lower 20s.
650 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region.
On Thursday, abundant sunshine across North Texas may allow for a few locations across the Big Country to reach the low 80s.
A dry cold front continues to wash out over southern Indiana, and the mid-level deck associated with it will be gone by daybreak.
Another unseasonably mild day today, before the upstream cold front noted above brings a chill down and light snow/flurry chances for Thu.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Cut off low over SW NM this morning will weaken and lose it features today as a high pressure ridge grows over the Intermountain West. The ridge axis will shift east Thursday extending up from TX along the Rockies to Canada. Expect most locations today will warm into the 70s with readings a couple degrees warmer Thursday under the ridge.
410 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Overnight GOES-W WV imagery indicated the upper level ridge axis centered west of the Continental Divide. Surface and low level pressure gradients will not be as tight as the previous few days, but sufficient to generate gusty winds, especially in and close to the higher terrain. The upper level ridge will be the dominant feature, diverting moisture and precipitation well north of the CWA.
expect a cold front to sag across the area from the northeast. This stratus combined with modestly cooler air aloft should make for a less pleasant day Thursday.
254 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Overnight GOES-W WV imagery indicated the upper level ridge axis centered west of the Continental Divide. Surface and low level pressure gradients will not be as tight as the previous few days, but sufficient to generate gusty winds, especially in and close to the higher terrain. The upper level ridge will be the dominant feature, diverting moisture and precipitation well north of the CWA.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be on the northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over the bay of Campeche during the period. Dry weather will dominate over nearly all of the BRO CWFA, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out over the lower Texas coastal waters on Thursday.
Therefore, expect skies will remain sunny with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. The overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
928 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Milder weather continues on Wednesday before a cold front moves through Wednesday night, which will provide a few light rain showers. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Thursday behind the front, but will quickly rebound heading to the weekend. As this boundary interacts with a warmer and slightly more saturated air mass, a few sprinkles or light rain showers may work their way across a number of our counties. This will set us up with notably cooler daytime highs, only allowing temperatures to climb about 5 degrees during the daytime hours. Highs will be near the freezing mark in our far northern counties in west-central OH, increasing to the upper 40s towards northern KY. Mid level ridging will be moving across the area to start the period.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s across the lower deserts.
Today through Thursday High pressure will remain in control over the Cowboy State today and Thursday.
557 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region.
300 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 WV imagery at this hour depicts a narrow tongue of deep moisture streaming into the area within a mid-to-upper-level jet atop a low amplitude wrn ridge. Weak sfc trof extends along a baroclinic zone/nearly stationary boundary from the cntrl Plains nwwd into the lee of the nrn Rockies. Shallow low-level moisture and cooler temperatures, enhanced by upslope flow behind the front, will gradually expand swwd with time today into tonight. With swwd extent, midlevel moisture becomes increasingly limited, which will likely lead to a transition to drizzle/freezing drizzle or perhaps some areas of snow grains/ice pellets if shallow clouds become cold enough for ice formation. Late tonight into Thursday AM, WAA will increase as troughing becomes more pronounced in the lee of the Rockies.
Similar to yesterday's forecast; dry weather along with warmer than normal highs this afternoon and cooler than normal lows tonight are expected. This high will move slowly to the east through tonight and become centered over southern Mississippi by sunrise Thursday. This will provide a light and variable wind today allowing temperatures to top out in the low to mid 70s.
624 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Milder weather continues on Wednesday before a cold front moves through Wednesday night, which will provide a few light rain showers. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Thursday behind the front, but will quickly rebound heading to the weekend.
257 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s across the lower deserts.
This front will move lift north today leaving high pressure to be in control across the southeast U. Temperatures will be quite warm for early March with highs in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will move back south on Thursday and stall out across the region. Cooler air will move into the region behind the front so highs will range from the low to mid 60s behind the front to low to mid 70s ahead of the front.
Not as cold tonight as the low level high shifts east of Alabama and flow becomes south-southwest.
439 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Precipitation along a boundary is expected to continue at times today in the form of light freezing drizzle and/or a wintry mix. Precipitation is expected to intensify along the front tonight as snow and freezing rain become primary concerns. In some places, there may be a pause in the precipitation for a time today, but starting the advisory now simplifies the messaging, and, any freezing drizzle at all should it occur today would have an impact.
349 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Most of the forecast area remains clear this morning as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Warm advection will continue under the ridge so highs may be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Some high clouds will spread over the highway 40 corridor today as moisture spills over the northern periphery of the ridge. Additional cloud cover is expected tonight ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. The ridge will slide east of the Divide tomorrow as the trough continues eastward, allowing southwest flow to become established. The higher end of the guidance is still shy of record temperatures tomorrow afternoon, which could be due to the expected cloud cover.
For tonight (Wednesday night), a backdoor cold front will push through South Dakota, glancing northeast Nebraska before pushing into Iowa. However, there is a chance for some freezing drizzle across extreme north central Nebraska. Dry conditions return for the remainder of Thursday, however, temperatures will drop significantly especially across north central Nebraska as cooler air moves in behind the departing front. Expect highs to range from the low 60s in southwest Nebraska to the mid 40s across Boyd county.
Upper heights will in fact build over the Panhandles over the next 48 hours, with temperatures continuing to trend warmer as a result. The northwestern Panhandles, with a decent pressure gradient setting up courtesy of a lee trough in E CO, is favored to see 20 foot winds out of the south-southwest at 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon, potentially allowing those critical conditions to develop.
Strengthening upper level ridge across the Intermountain West today will keep the deep plume of moisture well north of the forecast area. This should provide for less cloud cover today should allow temperatures to reach the low 60s in the valley. Models remain in good agreement with large trough splitting as it moves inland on Thursday with a large closed low forming off the southern California coast.
425 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure ridge aloft holding firm just west of Colorado with a light west to northwest flow aloft.
Most locations are in the 30s and lower 40s, with 50s noted in the higher elevations.
/Today through Thursday/ An upper trough over the Desert Southwest will weaken dramatically today and an upper ridge will build over the Intermountain West in its place.
Thursday a trough digging southeast through British Columbia will split and send a closed low south across the Pacific Northwest on its way to California and Nevada. Meanwhile, the other half of the trough from the split will head east into Alberta. A surface cold front will extend between the parts of the trough and move across the northern Rockies Thursday night. That cold front will cause the snow levels to come crashing back down to the valleys at about the same time the region loses its main source of recent moisture.
306 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Sprawling upper ridge will be the dominant upper feature through the short term period. About the only wrinkle in the short term will be a weak back door cold front on Thursday. The air mass is very shallow and saturated only in the lowest few hundred feet. Temperatures will be right around freezing for lows, so cannot completely rule out freezing drizzle of freezing fog.
These sprinkles have largely been brief in duration although road reports would indicate that at least some minor impact to the far eastern fridges of our SW MN counties. Challenge again today will be the sloshing around of the low level baroclinic zone and its impacts on temperatures before a reinforcing push of cooler air sinks south. With some weak EPV* atop this circulation, expect a rather narrow band of snow to develop through the overnight hours with perhaps some saturation issues allowing for patchy freezing drizzle off its western edge.
406 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Milder weather continues on Wednesday before a cold front moves through Wednesday night, which will provide a few light rain showers. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Thursday behind the front, but will quickly rebound heading to the weekend.
Latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery are showing temperatures already in the low to mid 60's under sunny skies. Pleasant boating conditions expected to continue across the eastern gulf waters as high pressure builds into the region through the week producing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
350 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 WV imagery at this hour depicts a narrow tongue of deep moisture streaming into the area within a mid-to-upper-level jet atop a low amplitude wrn ridge. Weak sfc trof extends along a baroclinic zone/nearly stationary boundary from the cntrl Plains nwwd into the lee of the nrn Rockies. Shallow low-level moisture and cooler temperatures, enhanced by upslope flow behind the front, will gradually expand swwd with time today into tonight. With swwd extent, midlevel moisture becomes increasingly limited, which will likely lead to a transition to drizzle/freezing drizzle or perhaps some areas of snow grains/ice pellets if shallow clouds become cold enough for ice formation. Late tonight into Thursday AM, WAA will increase as troughing becomes more pronounced in the lee of the Rockies.
Similar to yesterday, we have some scattered high cloudiness streaming overhead above the weak ridging in place to our south.
355 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Overnight GOES-W WV imagery indicated the upper level ridge axis centered west of the Continental Divide. Surface and low level pressure gradients will not be as tight as the previous few days, but sufficient to generate gusty winds, especially in and close to the higher terrain. The upper level ridge will be the dominant feature, diverting moisture and precipitation well north of the CWA.
355 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 The Florida Keys remain under the influence of weak, elongated high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states. Northeasterly winds have certainly been higher than expected for much of today, likely linked to a tighter pressure gradient than forecasted between this high and a decaying longwave trough east of the Bahamas. In its wake, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern third of the CONUS.
138 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure continues to dominate today with the ridge axis just to the west over eastern Idaho and high- and mid-level clouds streaming over the top side mostly into northern Wyoming. Breezy west to southwest winds also persist with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in the typical favorable locations of the higher terrain and across much of central WY. As the 500mb high moves from AZ into NM tomorrow, the ridge axis will slide over the forecast area and strengthen as an upper-level low approaches the CA coast.
(This evening through Thursday) Well-above average temperatures, with highs near 80 deg F, are still expected tomorrow as the upper ridge passes over the plains.
This dropped MinRH values into the 25 to 30 percent range across much of the forecast area, with the higher terrain being a little higher thanks to cooler temperatures. They won't approach wind advisory criteria, but combined with the low RH values they could present some elevated fire danger. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 73 44 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 70 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 71 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 65 37 66 44 / 10 0 0 0 0.
Thursday should be a near repeat of today with temperatures perhaps slightly warmer as warm air advection increases somewhat. High temperatures should have no problem approaching the upper 70s and could even crack the lower 80s in a few locations out west.
1026 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Overnight GOES-W WV imagery indicated the upper level ridge axis centered west of the Continental Divide. Surface and low level pressure gradients will not be as tight as the previous few days, but sufficient to generate gusty winds, especially in and close to the higher terrain. The upper level ridge will be the dominant feature, diverting moisture and precipitation well north of the CWA.
While there may be some breaks that occur during the warm front advance tonight, most areas will likely remain overcast. The short term starts off with a mid level ridge over the western CONUS. The band could initially feature some sleet/freezing rain/freezing drizzle, especially over the western fringes of the pcpn where the snow growth region will be marginally saturated. Right now we're forecasting from 1 to 2 inches with the highest amounts probably over NC SD. Starting late Thursday evening, we see increasing low level moisture in BUFKIT soundings, with the NAM saturated through the lowest 4 to 6kft initially, though that drops to between 3 and 4kft by daybreak. There will be broad isentropic upglide noted through the day even in the low levels, but a lack of ice introduction means the concern is predominantly freezing drizzle.