Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While the abundant sunshine will bring warmth, it won't bring temperatures up by much as highs will peak in the lower 50s today- roughly 20 degrees below our climatological normal high for this day of the year.
Skies are forecast to remain clear with the surface axis of high pressure remaining in place and decoupling will provide for another night of light wind. CAA is coming to an end this afternoon and 850hPa temperature advection will actually begin to pull warmer air in at 1000-2000 feet this evening and the WAA becomes more pronounced overnight. The warmer air should find its way to the surface by Wednesday afternoon, leaving a significant temperature gradient across the area. I've tightened that gradient a bit (warmer west and cooler east). Fire danger will be in the high to very high categories. With the warmer air building in to replace the departing arctic air, most locations will remain in the 30s on Wednesday night.
1042 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 The forecast remains on track with high pressure in place across the region. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern today. The western edge of a deep upper trough is still drawing in much cooler than normal air on northerly flow. Winds will shift to the southwest tonight as high pressure exits, but should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when breezes pick up out of the west to northwest. Leaned toward the CONSMOS for the lower end of guidance. Upper level ridging will slowly shift eastward early in the period, bringing warmer temperatures into the region.
Much cooler and unsettled weather conditions return by late week and into the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary sweeps across the region. A mid/upper level low about 575 miles southwest of the Monterey Peninsula continues to advect mid-to-high level clouds across the region this afternoon. Meanwhile, building high pressure over the Great Basin has resulted in warming temperatures aloft. As such, temperatures this afternoon are running a few to as much as 15 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. The mid/upper level ridge will continue to strengthen through midweek while very light offshore flow develops across the interior. Thus, temperatures look to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s near the coast while the interior warms into the low/mid 90s on Wednesday, the warmest day of the week.
A deep trough over the upper plains is driving cold, northerly winds all the way over us. That trough will continue to build to the central plains maintaining the north winds, low temperatures, and low humidities through tomorrow night.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper level ridge will be over the region today and Wednesday with warm and dry weather under mostly clear skies.
The ridge over the region continues to dominate, but its time is limited.
232 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 High pressure will maintain well above normal temperatures and limited cloud cover over the next 36 hours or so.
The cold air will deliver the first light snow accumulation of the season to the higher elevations in western Pennsylvania and end the growing season for many locations. Deep upper level trough (500mb height anomalies -2 to -3SD) axis rotates into CPA tonight. Large scale and orographic forcing will combine to generate light snow over the western Alleghenies into Wednesday morning with a light accumulation (coating to an inch) probable over the highest terrain most likely on non paved sfcs.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Strong north/northwesterly flow continues to bring in a much cooler and drier airmass across the region this afternoon. Tonight still sets up to be the coldest night of the Fall season, as high pressure will settle over the Southern Plains. With high pressure centered over the area, winds should be much lighter, generally ranging from 5 to 10 mph. Despite the lower winds, elevated fire danger will remain concern given the low RH values and critically dry fuels in place.
Surface winds should become light and variable as high pressure starts to fill in across central Texas. 850mb temperatures should warm up to around 10-12 degrees C, and with abundant sunshine, this should result in highs in the low 70s in the afternoon.
236 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Deep stacked low over the Great Lakes region and high pressure ridge in the eastern Plains was funneling cold northwest winds across the dvn cwa, despite wall-to-wall sunshine. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 20s with highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 40s.
349 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Ridging aloft continues over the Northern Rockies placing North Dakota into northwesterly flow. Temperatures continue to warm slowly across the region as high clouds round the top of the upper level ridge moving into the Northern Plains later this evening. Tomorrow southwesterly winds and ridging aloft will help temperatures warm up into the 60s across the region. A pressure trough with a warm front attached is going to veer winds out of the southwest to northwest by tomorrow afternoon.
RH values are quite low in the teens and twenty percents, though peak wind gusts so far today have been low as well, in the teens and low twenty mph range due to high pressure being overhead, so fire danger hasn't been much of a concern.
We could get a little warmer in the northeast corner this afternoon and a little colder in some mountains spots tonight, but it's all real close. Center of the upper level ridge to remain over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies today. Flow around the ridge will result in a northerly aloft for Colorado. The ridge does shift slightly eastward and brings slightly warmer air.
A couple inches of snow accumulation is anticipated on the highest elevations, but a warm boundary layer (mid 30s F for the lowlands) will inhibit that potential elsewhere, as will current indications of weak synoptic ascent and instability. Given the continuation of the growing season, a freeze warning was issued for the higher elevations. Highs will again top out in the lower 40s again Wednesday as snow showers transition back to rain with the warming boundary layer.
Main item of interest in the near term will be another night of freezing temperatures. CAMS this morning were in very good agreement with moving an area of high pressure at the surface across central Kansas tonight. Based on this will trend towards the cooler guidance for lows tonight across south central Kansas while elsewhere the latest NBM guidance appears more on track given the forecast southerly wind speeds. Given the widespread freezing temperatures expected later this Tuesday morning will not be issuing another freeze product for tonight/Wednesday morning. At this time the areas with the highest probability (30%-60%) of these cool temperatures are the Hays and Larned areas. This morning the ensemble clusters continue to show our next decent upper level trough will take aim at western Kansas over the upcoming weekend period.
A cold front continues to press south through Central Florida, with dewpoints now solidly below freezing in the Panhandle. The cold front will push through the Keys late tonight, with an early season blast of cold air advection persisting for much of Wednesday. BL winds are near 20 knots, and given the warm SSTs (83-84 degF), most marine locations near and west of the Lower Keys should reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds.
325 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Latest surface analysis shows low pressure centered over Lake Ontario with a ridge of high pressure nudging in from the west. Subsequent subsidence will result in clearing skies and therefore good radiational cooling that will allow Wednesday morning temperatures to fall to or below freezing for all locations other than Louisville due to urban heat island effects. Expect mostly clear skies tomorrow as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to be 10-15 degrees below normal, as highs only reach into the low to mid 50s.
1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (Today and tonight) After a cold start this morning, temperatures will remain well below average for highs this afternoon as our area remains under deep- layer northerly flow on the backside of a large eastern US trough. Therefore, continue to stick to the cooler side of guidance with freezing temperatures expected for a large chunk of northern, central, and south-central OK.
A high pressure over the area will cue clear skies and calming winds after sunset. Further to the south and west, slightly higher winds and some high cloud cover will mitigate the degree of cooling, but freezing temperatures are still expected everywhere east of an Arnett to Walters line.
1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 A strong upper level trough continues to sit over the eastern Great Lakes while slowly progressing eastward. Wednesday morning looks to be the coldest with lows in the low 20s expected in southeast Kansas. By daytime Wednesday the upper flow will begin to shift from the north to northwest as ridging builds overhead.
(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail across the region in the wake of a strong cold front. /22 (Now through Wednesday) Upper level troughing continues to dig into the region through Wednesday. The main caveat to the low forecast is if winds can remain high enough to prevent a full decoupling of the boundary layer they may verify a degree or two higher than forecast. With the expected sub-freezing temperatures, a Freeze Warning remains in effect for overnight tonight through Wednesday morning.
We cooled the lows in the mountain valleys a degree or two, and dropped the dew points/humidities in the mountains during the daytime and on the plains slightly in the afternoon.
800 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 High pressure remains anchored over the Great Plains, and most of the wrap-around moisture that brought us our clouds today and flurries to the Cumberland Plateau is finally sliding off to the east.
A very weak front will pass with this low, bringing breezy northwest winds on Wednesday, however warmer temperatures are still expected behind this front during the day given the lack of notable cold air advection. Ridging aloft continues over the Northern Rockies placing North Dakota into northwesterly flow. Temperatures continue to warm slowly across the region as high clouds round the top of the upper level ridge moving into the Northern Plains later this evening. Tomorrow southwesterly winds and ridging aloft will help temperatures warm up into the 60s across the region. A pressure trough with a warm front attached is going to veer winds out of the southwest to northwest by tomorrow afternoon.
Quiet weather is expected in the short term thanks to high pressure over our area. Synoptically speaking, a high pressure system at the surface will keep our weather quiet for today and tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, in the 20s areawide. This could be partly due to the winds shifting to the south-southwest as the high moves over our area tonight.
Cooler with a chance of rain this weekend. The majority of the high clouds will clear overnight tonight but a few will linger into tomorrow. Otherwise high pressure will build in from the east. This will bring warmer temperatures for today and they should be about 5-10 degree warmer than yesterday. Additional warming of another 5-10 degrees is expected tomorrow as the ridge axis pushes west over the west coast. The upper level ridge will continue to push west for the end of the week and we will see falling heights as short waves pass to our north.
Clear skies and slackening winds are setting the stage for radiational cooling to push minimum temperatures towards or below the freezing mark areawide. /16/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) Strong north/northwesterly flow continues to bring in a much cooler and drier airmass across the region this afternoon. Tonight still sets up to be the coldest night of the Fall season, as high pressure will settle over the Southern Plains. With high pressure centered over the area, winds should be much lighter, generally ranging from 5 to 10 mph. Despite the lower winds, elevated fire danger will remain concern given the low RH values and critically dry fuels in place.
615 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Aviation Section Updated High pressure will maintain well above normal temperatures and limited cloud cover through Wednesday.
740 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Aviation -- Final Days of Fall Storm -- Deep and vertically stacked low pressure cyclone is centered over the eastern Huron basin today. Now through tonight, a trowal airstream originating over New England is wrapping back to the west side of the low, over our area. This layer has an upward vertical component of motion and is within the DGZ, so more of a light stratiform rain is expected tonight over the whole area, in addition to the lower-level lake-effect convective bands which are focused west of US-131. In the higher elevations of northern Osceola County (and more so to the north of Osceola), some wet snow accumulations are again possible tonight.
Latest surface analysis shows low pressure centered over Lake Ontario with a ridge of high pressure nudging in from the west. Subsequent subsidence will result in clearing skies and therefore good radiational cooling that will allow Wednesday morning temperatures to fall to or below freezing for all locations other than Louisville due to urban heat island effects. Expect mostly clear skies tomorrow as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to be 10-15 degrees below normal, as highs only reach into the low to mid 50s.
Current weather remains under the control of high pressure.
Latest model data supports this idea with snow depth increases of 0 inches outside of ridges and I-80 corridor. A couple inches of snow accumulation is anticipated on the highest elevations, but a warm boundary layer (mid 30s F for the lowlands) will inhibit that potential elsewhere, as will current indications of weak synoptic ascent and instability. Given the continuation of the growing season, a freeze warning was issued for the higher elevations. Highs will again top out in the lower 40s again Wednesday as snow showers transition back to rain with the warming boundary layer.
951 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Cold high pressure will settle into the southern states overnight.
Deep stacked low over the Great Lakes region and high pressure ridge in the eastern Plains was funneling cold northwest winds across the dvn cwa, despite wall-to-wall sunshine. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 20s with highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 40s.
A few showers down south associated with the cold front moving through the area will diminish in the next couple hours. Cooler temperatures and lower dew points filter in behind the cold front. Temperatures in the morning are expected to be close to 20 degrees cooler than today's low temperatures. After Wednesday winds will begin to subside and turn more northerly as the high pressure begins to build back in. (00Z TAFS) The cold front continues to move through the area.
Tonight and Wednesday A vertically-stacked low pressure system was istuated over SE Ontario and SW Quebec this afternoon. Lows will range from the middle to upper 20s west to the lower to middle 30s east. For Wednesday, the upper low will slowly shift east, allowing more widespread clearing to occur over the region.
Quiet weather in store this week as a result of a persistent ridge over the western CONUS with temperatures remaining above seasonal averages. This weekend, active weather returns with the possibility of widespread gusty winds, cooler temperatures, precipitation chances, and high elevation snowfall.
512 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a low spinning over the Great Lakes region, with an amplified ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over the western Dakotas, resulting in light southeasterly winds across much of our CWA.
TFJ After today, the strong ridge of warm, high pressure begins to weaken a bit, due to the the influence of the approaching cold front from the Yukon Territory.
845 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Cold dry high pressure is over the CWA. RH values are quite low in the teens and twenty percents, though peak wind gusts so far today have been low as well, in the teens and low twenty mph range due to high pressure being overhead, so fire danger hasn't been much of a concern.
757 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 High pressure continues to build in bringing very dry and much cooler weather through midweek with some morning frost inland. Low pressure may bring a chance of rain by late weekend. For this reason have stuck with the fairly tightly clustered temperature guidance rather than some of the lower NBM percentiles. Light west winds on Wednesday, which may actually end up being a few degrees cooler than this afternoon turned out and some 10 degrees below climatology. Cooler temps will persist through the end of the work week as an upper level trough starts to lift Wednesday night.
635 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Strong north/northwesterly flow continues to bring in a much cooler and drier airmass across the region this afternoon. Tonight still sets up to be the coldest night of the Fall season, as high pressure will settle over the Southern Plains. With high pressure centered over the area, winds should be much lighter, generally ranging from 5 to 10 mph. Despite the lower winds, elevated fire danger will remain concern given the low RH values and critically dry fuels in place.
948 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through the weekend. A large upper low covers the eastern half of the CONUS aloft while cold high pressure builds in from the northwest and west. At the surface, high pressure will build into the forecast area through the short term period. A closed low at 500 mb will continue its residence over the Great Lakes. Broad troughing will persist over the southeastern states while the closed low remains over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be bewteen 1 and 3 degrees Celsius, which, despite plentiful sunshine, will be supportive of high temperatures only in the low to mid 60s.
731 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through the weekend. A large upper low covers the eastern half of the CONUS aloft while cold high pressure builds in from the northwest and west. At the surface, high pressure will build into the forecast area through the short term period. A closed low at 500 mb will continue its residence over the Great Lakes. Broad troughing will persist over the southeastern states while the closed low remains over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be bewteen 1 and 3 degrees Celsius, which, despite plentiful sunshine, will be supportive of high temperatures only in the low to mid 60s.
Despite this somewhat less than ideal cooling setup, guidance continues to support temperatures falling to near or just below freezing over the western Midlands. High pressure centered just west of the area will ridge into the Southeast with a bit of an airmass modification but temperatures only a degree or two warmer for Wednesday.
303 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The strong upper level low that brought frigid weather to our region will continue to progress east of the Great Lakes leaving northwesterly flow aloft behind it.
Surface observations are showing temperatures early this morning in the 30s across most of the region with some sub-freezing temperatures being seen across portions of southwest Arkansas. Afternoon temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees below seasonable normals with highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s across the area. Chilly temperatures are expected once again tonight, with lows ranging from the lower to mid 30s across the eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.
NVA will increase overnight as the mid/upper-level ridge over the Intermountain West expands eastward, with the stratus deck dissipating in optical depth during this time. Pleasant weather is expected tomorrow with high temperatures about 10 deg F warmer than today as boundary-layer heights ascend to near 1-km AGL amidst a light, westerly breeze beneath the increasing mid-level subsidence from the anticyclonic flow over the western U.
1034 mb high pressure centered over the Red River in the Dakotas will build south and be centered over OK Wednesday morning, the Texas coast Wednesday evening, and the upper Gulf coast Thursday morning. The temperature forecast tonight uses the guidance blend and this is slightly cooler than the NBM 50th percentile. This forecast is warmer than the NBM 50th and supported by northwest sfc winds and h850mb temperatures around 15C. The guidance blend suggested lows in the 30s to around 40 Wednesday night which is cooler than the NBM 50th or the short term model blend. The forecast continues to lean on radiational cooling for support for the cooler lows.
250 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The upper low that has been the primary driver of the weather across the Great Lakes region since the weekend will finally begin lifting northeast tonight. One final upper trough axis rotating around the main low to the east will bring plenty of mid to upper-level clouds tonight that will place a floor on min temps in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of the area.
Morning lows will dip well below freezing tonight with a Freeze Warning in effect until 8 am. A freeze watch remains in effect for Wednesday night into Thursday again as temperatures plummet toward the freezing level for much of the CWA again.
Quiet weather is expected in the short term thanks to high pressure over our area. Synoptically speaking, a high pressure system at the surface will keep our weather quiet for today and tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, in the 20s areawide. This could be partly due to the winds shifting to the south-southwest as the high moves over our area tonight. Once again, temperatures will be even warmer for Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Thankfully the air mass will modify as it continues to sink southward and overnight lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 70s for the Keys. Tomorrow night will be cooler with temperatures flirting with upper 60s. As such, Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for mainly the waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
A very weak front will pass with this low, bringing breezy northwest winds on Wednesday, however warmer temperatures are still expected behind this front during the day given the lack of notable cold air advection. Ridging aloft continues over the Northern Rockies placing North Dakota into northwesterly flow. Temperatures continue to warm slowly across the region as high clouds round the top of the upper level ridge moving into the Northern Plains later this evening. Tomorrow southwesterly winds and ridging aloft will help temperatures warm up into the 60s across the region. A pressure trough with a warm front attached is going to veer winds out of the southwest to northwest by tomorrow afternoon. However, a low-level thermal ridge is going to extend up into the western Dakotas resulting in the warmest day of the week.
241 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The upper level high continues over the Pacific Northwest, forcing northern flow over the Northern Plains. A thermal ridge will move in Thursday afternoon, bringing the warmest temperatures of the week.
231 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Upper ridge over western US will keep NE Montana warm and dry today with highs mainly in the 70s. Strong west to NW winds will develop with the cold front which will create critical fire weather conditions. Winds will diminish Thursday Night as high pressure moves into the area.
(Today through Thursday) Post frontal cold air advection continues across the region as a deep longwave upper level trough still encompasses the entire eastern half of the country. As the apex of the upper trough starts to slide east today and tonight, overnight lows will not be quite as cold due to increasing 500mb heights. Thursday will be just the start of moderation as the trough to the east begins to lift out.