Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1100 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Overview: A relatively stagnant synoptic pattern, characterized by broad/expansive ridging aloft over the central and southeastern CONUS, will prevail in this period. Given that the Tri-State area remains situated on the WNW-NW periphery of an expansive upper level ridge. Expecting slightly cooler temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s during the initial portions of the period due to a weak cold frontal passage.
319 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The heat and humidity continue as a large upper high continues to sit over the Mid-South and will continue to dominate the weather for the rest of the week.
This trend will continue tomorrow under the upper ridge and spread southward to near the Red River so we've expanded the heat advisory through there. By late tomorrow afternoon and early evening, a few showers and storms may try to nudge into extreme NW OK on the NW fringe of the upper ridge within a mid to upper moisture plume but very warm mid to upper level temps will certainly be inhibiting and only a minor mid level perturbation may be at play.
1207 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (Today and tonight) A broad upper level high, currently centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley, will expand a bit further west today, continuing to remain the dominant player in our weather. Strong insolation, slight strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge, and increasing thicknesses as the upper ridge further expands into our area will allow temperatures to tick upwards with areas generally north of a San Angelo to San Saba line seeing highs in the 100-103 range. It looks as though any chances of precipitation will stay to the west of our area with the monsoonal moisture over the higher terrain - though a few isolated showers in far western Crockett County cannot be totally ruled out.
209 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Our area remains under the influence of a large upper ridge which is allowing for scattered diurnal convection and is also boosting heat indices across the area. Upper ridging intensifies further on Wednesday and widespread heat indices above 105 F are again expected. Storm coverage may be reduced from previous days, ranging from isolated to widely scattered as the upper ridging results in lowered instability and increased subsidence.
Given the potential for strong cold pool development given the high downdraft Capes and theta-e difference, it is likely that the cold pool should eventually outrun much of the deeper convection into the evening. Given the slower movement of these storms and the high moisture availability, localized heavy rainfall will be possible with 3+ inches which may approach flash flood guidance values.
(Tonight) Very warm to hot conditions continued across the greater Tennessee Valley, as upper level ridging settles over the SE region. 7 to over 2 inches, and dewpoint values in the low/mid 70 degree range, has produced heat index values to as warm as 107 degrees at Muscle Shoals and the UAH Campus, with mid 90s to 105 degrees elsewhere.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) A 592 to 594 dm mid-level ridge concentrating from the Southeast CONUS into Texas will continue to dominate the weather throughout the short term period. Conditions remain warm at night with overnight lows ranging from the low 70s in the Hill Country to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Outside from a stray shower entering the coastal plains late Wednesday along the seabreeze as a weak mid- level inverted trough moves into South Texas, rainfall still will not be expected.
1128 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Upper low is nearly stationary off the Pac NW coast.
With an upper low wobbling well offshore, bringing moisture and short waves up and through the region, expect additional showery and mild weather.
Tomorrow will be similar to today as high pressure to the east continues to draw gulf moisture into west Texas and southeastern New Mexico and afternoon heating creates the needed trigger. Highs tomorrow will be a couple of degrees warmer than today, a warming trend that will continue into the weekend.
312 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 An upper level ridge currently centered over the AR/TN/MS border is producing dangerous heat across the region at this time. This ridge will begin to weaken and retrograde beginning Wednesday.
Active belt of thunderstorm complexes to continue across the Ohio Valley around the mid level ridge stretching from the southern Plains thru the southeast. Warm and humid conditions tonight with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Hot and humid conditions to continue with highs from near 90 northeast to the lower 90s southwest.
1247 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Sfc ridging remains anchored over S LA this morning, with upper ridging extending from ECntrl TX NE across the region into the Mid-South. Mixing of the drier air may be a little hard pressed over the Ern zones given the higher PW's present, with heat indices on the higher end of the Advisory criteria expected over the Ern zones. A weak inverted trough aloft extending from Srn MS into Wrn AL is progged to drift W into the Lower MS Valley this afternoon, which should ignite isolated to widely scattered convection over these areas, which may migrate W into NE LA by mid and late Afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): High pressure will remain the main weather driver for the short term period.
This afternoon we will see isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly in the higher terrain of Baker County and the West Central Mountains, along with temperatures right around normal.
844 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The upper trough over the Eastern Pacific will continue to weaken through the weekend while high pressure over the Central US strengthens and expands westward.
It remains unclear where this would occur given overall weak forcing for ascent under the influence of the large upper ridge. Ridging prevails to across the High Plains, stretching well into Saskatchewan heading into the Weekend. Further east, the downstream side of the ridge is expected to be unsettled as the H5 ridge eventually flattens.
Weather conditions will keep concerns on the low side through the week.
/issued 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022/ The heat and humidity continue as a large upper high continues to sit over the Mid-South and will continue to dominate the weather for the rest of the week.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Our area remains under the influence of a large upper ridge which is allowing for scattered diurnal convection and is also boosting heat indices across the area. Upper ridging intensifies further on Wednesday and widespread heat indices above 105 F are again expected. Storm coverage may be reduced from previous days, ranging from isolated to widely scattered as the upper ridging results in lowered instability and increased subsidence.
Concur with the deterministic runs that an upper level ridge of high pressure will persist over the SERN/SCNTRL CONUS during the period, while an inverted upper trough enters the region Wednesday night.
1053 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Low pressure will cross the region overnight, then exit through the Maritimes Wednesday.
Weather remains dry with temperatures trending warmer over the next few days.
713 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A 592 to 594 dm mid-level ridge concentrating from the Southeast CONUS into Texas will continue to dominate the weather throughout the short term period. Conditions remain warm at night with overnight lows ranging from the low 70s in the Hill Country to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Outside from a stray shower entering the coastal plains late Wednesday along the seabreeze as a weak mid- level inverted trough moves into South Texas, rainfall still will not be expected.
Abundant, high-based strato cu and alto cu will keep temps mild with lows early Wednesday ranging from the low 60s across the north to the low 70s in the south.
Ridging aloft continues its east-west extension across the southern Plains - southeast U.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): High pressure will remain the main weather driver for the short term period.
Ridging over the Lower Ohio Valley has helped to feed a soupy airmass to our west. The upper ridge over the Central Plains and the broad upper trough over the northeast U. Dry and less humid conditions return this weekend as high pressure builds in across the region.
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) With the loss of daytime heating and the influence of a strong upper-ridge across the region, convection from earlier today across the portions of northeast Louisiana have since dissipated. Temperatures to trend similar to previous overnight lows, falling into the low to mid 70s across the ArkLaTex.
An upper trough just off the coast will weaken and move ashore late in the week.
847 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 Low pressure will cross the region overnight, then exit through the Maritimes Wednesday.
Latest water vapor loop showing very broad upper level ridging over our region. Being in the midst of this upper level ridge is resulting in very light flow over the region.
A weak trough and its associated moisture aided in the shower and thunderstorm development in the Straits of Florida this afternoon and the nearshore and offshore waters north of the Keys primarily, the Florida Bay, Gulf side waters. The Upper Keys and some of the Lower and Middle Keys did get some rainfall, but rainfall totals were less than a tenth of an inch.
521 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The persistent plume of monsoonal moisture streaming into the Four Corners remains in place along the western perimeter of high pressure anchored over the Great Plains. Stream gauges in the Highway 550 corridor have recorded nearly 0.
Southwest flow associated with a trough off of the Pacific coast will result in breezy afternoon winds and slightly below normal temperatures through tomorrow.
629 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Hot and dry conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge remains centered across the Southeast United States.
/issued 319 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022/ The heat and humidity continue as a large upper high continues to sit over the Mid-South and will continue to dominate the weather for the rest of the week.
With this lowered confidence see no reason to make drastic changes to the overall thinking in chances for precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening. More widespread thunderstorm chances look likely after sunset across southwest into central Nebraska with the increase of the low level jet.
Some coastal drizzle or sprinkles will be possible tonight through Wednesday as an upper trough offshore gradually dissipates and lifts out the northeast.
650 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (Tonight) Very warm to hot conditions continued across the greater Tennessee Valley, as upper level ridging settles over the SE region. 7 to over 2 inches, and dewpoint values in the low/mid 70 degree range, has produced heat index values to as warm as 107 degrees at Muscle Shoals and the UAH Campus, with mid 90s to 105 degrees elsewhere.
A closed upper low currently resides along the Pacific Northwest coast, leading to southwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
Temperatures started this morning quite mild, about 7 to 13 degrees warmer than yesterday morning and at 1 pm were 3 to 6 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. Temperatures at 1 pm had risen to the low to mid 80s for the Valley and Delta. Partly to mostly cloudy skies cover the mountains as an upper trough remains off the coast. These winds are currently gusting to 20 mph over ridges in the area. An increased Delta breeze continues overnight bringing a cooler morning than we saw today. Ensembles keep the main trough off the PacNW coast the next several days continuing below-average temperatures across interior NorCal through the work week.
618 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 An upper level ridge currently centered over the AR/TN/MS border is producing dangerous heat across the region at this time. This ridge will begin to weaken and retrograde beginning Wednesday.
The heat and humidity continue as a large upper high continues to sit over the Mid-South and will continue to dominate the weather for the rest of the week.
Showers should taper off by mid-day as expanding high pressure north of Lake Superior spreads southwards. Northeasterly flow persists today ushering in cooler and drier air. Cooler 850mb temps in conjunction with more cloud cover should help keep temps limited to the low 80s to upper 70s north.
The highest temperatures near 105 will be south and east of this boundary.
upper low off the Pac NW coast, upper ridging over the southeast CONUS, and ridge axis across northern Rockies into central Plains.
102 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 A weak cold front will drift southeast across the Commonwealth tonight before stalling out near or just to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Diffuse sfc cold front is dropping through the NW and NC Mountains at this hour and only producing isolated showers as very warm air aloft is capping most of central PA this morning. With slight cooling aloft overnight and the presence of the aforementioned cold front, will keep 20-30 POPS for many locations overnight, esp across the Northern Tier, far east and Western zones where mid level temps are slightly cooler. Considerable mid to high cloudiness will help keep temps mild overnight with lows early Wednesday ranging from the low 60s across the north to the low 70s in the south.
1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Low pressure will cross the region overnight, then exit through the Maritimes Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) The upper level high that has been the dominant player in our weather pattern will continue to expand westward across the area and even strengthen as we move through today and tonight. With clear/mostly clear skies allowing for high amounts of insolation and the 850 mb thermal ridge continuing to strengthen across our northern and western counties in particular, highs today will continue on their upward trend with temperatures in the Concho Valley and Heartland northward ranging from 100-105.
350 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 An upper ridge axis extended from Oklahoma eastward through Georgia and South Carolina. An upper low was centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models show an H7 trough from WY and CO into swrn NE which will lift slowly northeast today into tonight.
Back in Iowa, cooler temperatures in the 60s prevailed in most locations, along with low to mid level cloud development across much of northern Iowa. The primary uncertainty remains where the low-mid level boundary will set up. While the area avoided recent heavy rainfall and crops are in good condition, flooding will be possible should areas begin to realize the higher end totals.
410 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes with a return to dry weather today for most locations and then continue into the weekend.
431 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 A weak cold front stall out along or just south of the Mason- Dixon Line later today, and remain the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Diffuse sfc cold front is dropping through the NW and NC Mountains at this hour and only producing isolated showers as very warm air aloft is capping most of central PA this morning. Dewpoints are dropping into the lower 60s over the NW Mountains behind this b oundary, but it remains soupy to the south of it with sfc Td in the upper 60s to lower 70s over much of central and south central PA.
(Today) A broad mid level ridge of high pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to maintain hot and dry weather over the area today. The low level thermal ridge over the central and southern Plains will expand east some today, and the net result will be a degree or two increase in afternoon highs in some places.
209 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 With a front passing through the area before dawn, slightly cooler and drier air will move in today through tonight.
1128 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 A weak cold front will drift southeast across the Commonwealth tonight before stalling out near or just to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Sfc cold front stretched from near KCLE to KBFD and Western Finger Lakes of New York at 03Z. Abundant, high-based strato cu and alto cu will keep temps mild with lows early Wednesday ranging from the low 60s across the north to the low 70s in the south. However, with slight cooling aloft overnight and the presence of the aforementioned cold front, will keep 20-30 POPS for many locations overnight, esp across the Northern Tier, far east and Western zones where mid level temps are slightly cooler.
1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday Night) With the loss of daytime heating and the influence of a strong upper-ridge across the region, convection from earlier today across the portions of northeast Louisiana have since dissipated. Temperatures to trend similar to previous overnight lows, falling into the low to mid 70s across the ArkLaTex.
1120 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The persistent plume of monsoonal moisture streaming into the Four Corners remains in place along the western perimeter of high pressure anchored over the Great Plains. Stream gauges in the Highway 550 corridor have recorded nearly 0.
KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 76 95 76 94 / 50 30 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 76 95 76 94 / 40 20 50 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 75 95 74 94 / 40 20 50 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 72 89 71 89 / 40 30 70 50 70.
1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A 592 to 594 dm mid-level ridge concentrating from the Southeast CONUS into Texas will continue to dominate the weather throughout the short term period. Conditions remain warm at night with overnight lows ranging from the low 70s in the Hill Country to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Outside from a stray shower entering the coastal plains late Wednesday along the seabreeze as a weak mid- level inverted trough moves into South Texas, rainfall still will not be expected.
MLCAPE looks to be around 1000 J/kg with the highest values in the north. Tomorrow will see even better chances for precip as a cold front arrives in the morning.
257 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting northward out of it through Idaho and into British Columbia. A closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and is providing an express lane for pacific moisture over northern California through central Montana between the two airmasses. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Montana mountains during the early afternoon hours and then begin their migration across the high plains by the late afternoon and early evening.
This paired with dewpoints in the middle 70s will put maximum heat indices in the 100 to 110 range, with the highest being from roughly Jacksonville to Mattoon southward. The upper ridge centered over the Plains states will amplify over the Rockies today, turning flow aloft more northwesterly here locally.
Upper-air analysis shows a mid-level trough roughly oriented over eastern New Mexico and West Texas providing weak ascent for the moist environment.
(Today) Satellite imagery this morning depicts a very active picture across the Midwest and Plains where a series of MCSs are riding along a broad upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure along the Gulf Coast continues to dominate the local weather pattern. Although subsidence under the high may limit the coverage of storms. With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, maximum heat index values will be in the 103 to 110 range.
1159 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Hot and dry conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge remains centered across the Southeast United States.
446 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 An updated short term discussion will be sent shortly Upper level ridging initially across the southern CONUS will be suppressed to the west as broad troughing develops along the East Coast going into the weekend. The strengthening northwest flow aloft resulting from this will allow a weak cold front to drop south through the area.
stretching from low pressure over the Central Plains thru Iowa. Large area of high pressure remains centered to our north and west across much of Canada. High pressure will remain in control for the majority of the short term period, continuing precipitation free weather and normal temperatures.
336 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 A weak cold front will drift southeast across the Commonwealth tonight before stalling out near or just to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Diffuse sfc cold front is dropping through the NW and NC Mountains at this hour and only producing isolated showers as very warm air aloft is capping most of central PA this morning. With slight cooling aloft overnight and the presence of the aforementioned cold front, will keep 20-30 POPS for many locations overnight, esp across the Northern Tier, far east and Western zones where mid level temps are slightly cooler. Considerable mid to high cloudiness will help keep temps mild overnight with lows early Wednesday ranging from the low 60s across the north to the low 70s in the south.
In the upper levels, a ridge with gradually rising heights sits over the Northern Plains while embedded impulses push through the moderately active flow from the Northern Rockies through the southern Canadian Prairies. The 00Z BIS RAOB depicted a stout mid- level cap associated with warm 700mb temperatures and the subsidence pattern associated with ridging. Early this morning, isolated convection was ongoing over far northern North Dakota where the mid-level temperatures were somewhat cooler and 500mb speed maxes were flowing across the International Border. Today, the ridging pattern should keep most of western and central North Dakota dry, especially after the early morning convection over the north exits to the east or diminishes. Then late this afternoon and evening after adequate surface heating over the higher terrain in Montana and Wyoming, convection should develop and move into western North Dakota.
Drier and cooler air is expected Valley by the weekend. Periodically convective weather will persist across much of the Upr OH as WNW flow aloft perists via the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. As we head into the latter portion of the week, models begin suggesting the amplification of the central CONUS ridge and the downstream northeast troughing. Continued southwest flow in the low-levels will keep a warm, moist airmass in place south of the front.
A cold front is expected to turn winds to northerly at the northern sites around 07-08Z.
729 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 A weak cold front stall out along or just south of the Mason- Dixon Line later today, and remain the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Diffuse sfc cold front sagging through the WC and C Mountains this morning, and has produced only isolated showers as instability remains limited thanks to very warm air aloft.
The upper ridge that we've been discussing the past several days will continue its westward expansion, and thickness will increase over the region.
The HREF mean favors the brunt of this activity farther north today across the TX Panhandle coincident with a modest H7 trough axis, although modest CIN farther south should allow convective temps to be met for at least isolated showers and storms. Temp-wise, highs should fare a few degrees cooler on the Caprock today than yesterday given more convective cloud debris to start, while lows tonight round out quite mild once again.
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 An upper ridge axis extended from Oklahoma eastward through Georgia and South Carolina. An upper low was centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models show an H7 trough from WY and CO into swrn NE which will lift slowly northeast today into tonight. On Thursday, the upper ridge begins to build over the Rockies with the upper flow fairly zonal across NE. Highs should be slightly cooler from the lower 80s north central to mid 80s southwest.