Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
On the plains, a shallow cold front has been working its way back towards the foothills. Should see the front become a stationary boundary by mid-morning with the coldest air remaining out over the plains, and a portion of the Denver metro area staying warmer all day. Some light snow flurries may come out of the low clouds on the plains through today, but any snow accumulations will be very minimal. Thus will see periods of snow thru the aftn with areas of blowing snow over the higher passes. Meanwhile as a sfc lee trough gradually becomes better organized should see a warming trend across nern CO as highs rise well into the 50s by Thu. The GFS has an upper level trough moving into the area along with another shot of cold air.
Southerly flow evident in satellite imagery as cumulus field streaming northward across central Florida ahead of a low pressure developing across Alabama. Some minor timing changes to precipitation as it fills in across southwestern Georgia ahead of the low.
1156 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Much cooler air is surging into the area behind a cold front that has worked into the Central Plains by 08Z. With drier and cooler air working into the area, expect light snow/flurries to come to an end yielding to mostly clear skies.
Light winds will continue today ahead of a cold front that will move southwest across the region this evening. /issued 320 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ An upper level trough is over the Upper Midwest and extends southward over Louisiana. As the upper trough moves eastward today, a cold front will push southward towards the area. This will result in cooler high temperatures today across the northeast CWA with warmer temperatures across southern and western sections of the area.
The surface cold front has cleared the forecast area as the associated mid-level trough continues eastward over the mid MS valley. The high resolution ensemble forecast agrees with this placement and amounts, and the HRRR ensembles have very low probabilities of one inch of snow in these areas. Return flow will quickly become established by towards sunrise so the low temperatures may actually occur around midnight especially in central KS. Some light rain and snow is possible Monday afternoon along the Nebraska border as a wave zips across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska along with some frontogenetic forcing in the wake of the cold front. The cold front is expected to proceed southward Monday evening and into Oklahoma by Midnight.
The lower conditions will move back onshore this evening and spread into the Umpqua Basin overnight. VFR will prevail over the rest of the area for the next 24 hours, except for isolated IFR ceilings/visibility in fog/freezing fog this morning and again Monday morning in the Klamath Basin, lower Klamath, Shasta, and Scott Valleys. Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough along the coast will both persist into the middle of the week.
High pressure will continue to affect the Southwest with well above normal temperatures this week. Broad troughing continues over much of North America with a high amplitude ridge centered just off the West coast. Of note, a region of weak low pressure continues to the south of the mid latitude anticyclone (within the ridge). The models show a series of short waves (some of them very weak) tracking through the Interior West this week as they slide down the eastern side of the ridge.
A low pressure system will cross the area this afternoon.
345 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 A cold front will approach the region this evening, and cross our area overnight.
Dry adiabatic processes this afternoon should result in most inland areas warming well into the 80s (cooler closer to the coast due to SSTs in the 50s).
1034 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Surface cold front is making steady progress southeast this morning, with moderate pressure rises behind the front in Kansas and the OK panhandle. Have lowered temperatures across the far southeast, as fog and low clouds are keeping the temps in the low to mid 40s, and little recovery is expected.
Scattered showers stretch from around Brunswick southwestward to around Live Oak this afternoon, and ambient southerly flow is gusting to near 30 mph outside of storms as low pressure deepens across southern Georgia, cloud tops have warmed across southeast Georgia, and only a few lightning flashes have been observed the last hour. Behind the precip, drizzle and patchy fog may linger into the early morning hours across the area, gradually clearing out from north to south as drier air filters in behind the low. Overnight lows will be fairly similar to last night's - low to mid 40s across southeast Georgia and the low 50s across northeast Florida.
/12Z_TAFS/ Relatively shallow, but dense fog will continue at AUS and further east towards the Highway 77 corridor over the next few hours before a pre-frontal trough and back door cold front lifts ceilings to VFR. The cold front moves across our area tonight, however a mixed airmass with winds of 10 to 15 mph and increasing cloud cover will keep lows above normal.
It will also push the low clouds into the San Gabriel Vly and the VTA coastal areas.
It should be noted that models also showed a hint of freezing rain mixing in with the snow from around 6PM tonight to midnight, but current thinking is that snow will be the overwhelming dominant precipitation type.
245 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Stout cold front continued to slice southwest across the southern TX Panhandle early this afternoon complete with a ~30 degree temp drop over 30 miles. Expectation is for the remainder of these clouds to dissipate before sunset at which point breezy NE winds will veer easterly and slacken through the night ahead of high pressure. As this high departs east of the region toward sunrise, moistening southerly winds should enable some low cloud development in the Permian Basin and extending north through the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Any low clouds leftover Monday morning should be scoured east in response to much stronger and deeper westerly flow all ahead of a trough dropping SE across the central Rockies.
440 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Upper level ridge extends across the Central High Plains, with southwest flow beginning to build into the Central Rockies. At the surface lee trough has developed across eastern Colorado, with high pressure with southerly gradient in place over our CWA.
343 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 A cold front is currently dropping southward through Northern Michigan and Lake Huron and has progressed into northern portions of the Thumb this afternoon. Min temps tonight will actually remain a few degrees warmer for most locations (mid 30s to low 40s) owing to the northeast gradient and influence from the lake. It will still be a nice spring day, as seasonal averages for max temps are still in the low 60s.
Upper level northwest flow ushered in a cooler airmass last night and today resulting in a cooling trend across central California. Temperatures this afternoon were generally 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday at this time.
Light winds are expected tonight as high pressure settles into the region.
559 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 An approaching low pressure system will slowly cross the region tonight through Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms.
228 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Upper flow is nearly zonal across the northern plains, and a trough is moving into the western CONUS, with the upper low just off the Pac NW coast. Fog over northwestern SD took a while to dissipate today, and with a cold front draped west to east across SD, have lowered expected highs to the north. Temperatures at 2PM range from the 40s across far northwestern SD to the lower 70s across parts of central SD.
South to southeast winds will continue to increase through this afternoon, in response to lee trough deepening along I-25 in Colorado. Much warmer. Went several degrees above MOS guidance, with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s.
but winds will not exceed 15 to 25 mph and the strongest winds will be over the ridge tops of the hills from central Oregon north to the Lower Columbia Basin, Yakima and Kittitas valleys.
Cold front stretches from Panama City northward to near Dothan and further northward to western Georgia. Once the line of rain and the cold front moves through, winds will turn northwesterly with clouds hanging around most of the night. Low will fall to the low 50s across SE Alabama and western Florida panhandle to upper 50s to around 60 degrees across the Florida Big Bend counties.
1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Ridge of high pressure currently across the Mid Missouri Valley shifts east today resulting in breezy southwest winds. This should easily boost temps into the lower to mid 70s. Surface dewpoints in the lower/mid 30s, and may even mix a little lower this afternoon results in humidity values around 20-25% today, with lowest values in northeast NE. Spotty showers could occur in northeast NE Monday, but elsewhere remains dry, with another wind day with high temps in the lower to mid 70s ahead of an advancing cold front.
654 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Temperatures will peak around 70 degrees this afternoon as high pressure over the Great Lakes keeps winds light and skies clear. It will not be quite as cold tonight with lows in the lower 40s.
1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Current analysis suggest the warm front is currently along Highway 12, where surface obs indicate easterly winds. Cross the border into North Dakota and temperatures are struggling to reach the low to mid 40s. The cold front extends to the county lines of Beadle and Spink, extending northeast and northwest from there. As this low moves east during the day, we develop a stronger push of colder air southwards on the west side of the low.
330 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Temperatures will peak around 70 degrees this afternoon as high pressure over the Great Lakes keeps winds light and skies clear. It will not be quite as cold tonight with lows in the lower 40s.
135 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Surface map at 18Z shows low pressure centered over the northwest corner of GA, with copious wrap-around moisture still filtering through Middle Tennessee and widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms ongoing. At the same time, the upper low is centered near Savannah, Tennessee, and is expected to track southeastward to near Atlanta by 12Z tomorrow, so the precipitation is going to be with us for much of the evening period, and perhaps into the overnight hours.
Abundant moisture is combining with a slow moving cold front and strong upper-level storm system to generate several rounds of light to moderate, steady precipitation. Temperatures will be slow to climb given the cloud cover, so highs in the low to mid 60s will be common. A few lingering showers are expected to slowly exit the area on Monday as a upper low tracks along the east coast. High pressure will build in late Monday into Monday night for a quite weather pattern for mid week.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): The late season cold front that brought us a bit of a cool and cloudy morning has now passed well south of the RGV. By Monday morning, temps will be in the lower to mid 50s for much of the RGV. with upper 50s in the normally warmer locations to the lower to mid 60s along the coast and on the Island. High pressure aloft and at the surface will stick around on Monday, but the surface system will begin to shift east into the Western Gulf through the day. By the evening, winds will increase as the high pressure now in the Gulf begins to interact with a developing SOuthern Plains storm system.
1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure settling into the region and sunny skies dominate Central Illinois this morning. Very little going on in the short term, as the forecast area is influenced by a southwest-northeast high pressure axis. The upper low currently over the southeast tip of Missouri will settle into northern Alabama by late afternoon, keeping the northeast flow across our area.
The progressive weather pattern really kicks off Monday evening as a broad, positively-tilted upper level trough and associated cold front begin to impact the area.
Winds will turn NWerly as a cold front moves through ending the convection from west to east. The 11 pm surface analysis showed a cold front extending from a 1010 mb frontal wave in northeast AL to southern TX. Upper air data showed a positive-tilt trough from New England through KS, and at least one short wave trough in the vicinity of the surface cold front. The HRRR and CAM consensus appeared to be handling current convective trends well, and indicate that most of the rain will continue to dissipate overnight, then re-develop during the morning and afternoon hours as the surface cold front translates eastward across our forecast area.
Currently have some light snow lingering along and just north of the highway 2 corridor. However the high resolution models continue to linger this band into tonight, slowly lifting it east-northeast.
/issued 405 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/ Temperatures are near the freezing mark over parts of the northwest South Plains and southern Panhandle early this morning and a Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 am for those areas. The southerly winds should hold up overnight tonight and as such overnight lows will be considerably warmer.
247 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Pocket of warmer air was located across the central plains this afternoon with a warm front over the northern plains near the South Dakota North Dakota border. Significantly colder north of the warm front with temperatures in the 30s at 18z across North Dakota. This colder air is forecast to begin to spread south on Monday behind a cold front which models bring into eastern Nebraska by late afternoon before stalling out across the area through Monday night.
Considerable stratocu within VFR or high end MVFR remains across the region early this afternoon in the wake of low pressure to the east of the forecast area. Will see clearing west to east through the remainder of the afternoon as this low advances further east. The cloud cover should continue to push ewd with the low, leaving behind VFR conditions by mid-morning at KLCH/KAEX and noontime KLFT/KARA. Other story today looks to be the elevated nrly winds as CAA continues in wake of the cold front. High pressure is centered over the Texas Panhandle this morning. The ridge will build east through today and become centered over our area by Monday Morning. By Monday Afternoon the ridge axis will shift east of the area allowing the return flow to begin.
South to southeast winds will continue to increase through this afternoon, in response to lee trough deepening along I-25 in Colorado. Much warmer. Went several degrees above MOS guidance, with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s. A drier pattern will continue Monday as medium range models indicate a zonal flow aloft setting up across the Western High Plains in wake of a departing upper level ridge.
431 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Tonight through Monday, Latest satellite imagery showed a midlevel closed low pushing across the region. Afternoon breezy conditions will taper off for tonight, so expect a chilly night with lows from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. For Monday high pressure will build into the region from the Southern Plains with mostly sunny skies. Highs will be seasonable with readings in the lower to upper 70s.
510 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 An upper level low continues to deepen as it pushes across the Tennessee valley and into the Deep South this afternoon.
The remainder of the week will see a rise in temperatures and an increase in Gulf moisture overhead as an upper level trough deepens over the plains and southern Rockies.
Sacttered showers and isolated thunderstorms late today and this evening as convective temp has been reached and a weak trough is coming in from Oregon. Cold front midday will being a chance of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms continuing Monday night as upper trough swings through.
239 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather today. Low pressure is expected to track along the East Coast, resulting in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 for the start of the new work week. Increased PoPs over the high elevations tonight, while continuing to keep areas west of the Ridges dry. This should keep the mountains cool tonight, while downslope areas west of the Ridges warm. As a result, will keep a tight gradient of PoPs along the Ridges, with only slight chance west.
High pressure will begin building into the region today resulting in sunny skies and dry conditions. That high pressure will build overhead tonight resulting in clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures. Lows tonight should dip into the lower 40s.
356 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Strengthening near-zonal mid-level flow will continue through Monday, with subsequent support for maintenance of lee trof.
Meanwhile, low pressure will form along the jet tonight and move into northwest Oregon on Monday. All of this precipitation will fall as snow in the higher mountains around 5500 feet, but could briefly fall to near 4500 feet at times in heavier precipitation.
125 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure was over the lower Great Lakes. Low pressure will move up the east coast early in the week.
235 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Surface analysis reveals a 1008mb low over northwestern Georgia with a cold front draped down into the Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show a nice "swirl" in the clouds over the lower Tennessee valley associated with the system. In our neck of the woods, persistent clouds and precipitation associated with wrap-around moisture from the upper level low have resulted in a soggy Sunday for south-central Kentucky. North-central Kentucky and southern Indiana have remained mostly dry thanks to drier air advecting into the lower levels of the atmosphere, but mid to high level clouds have blocked out the sun for most folks. Like today, the gradient between clouds/clear skies will be sharp on Monday and will have an impact on the high temperatures.
109 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Temperatures will peak around 70 degrees this afternoon as high pressure over the Great Lakes keeps winds light and skies clear. It will not be quite as cold tonight with lows in the lower 40s.
Temperature profiles are warm/deep enough to melt ice crystals/snow from the saturated Dendritic Growth Zone (-12c to -20C), then falling to the ground in sub-freezing surface temperatures. This appears to occur for at least a few hours before winds aloft turn more southwesterly and westerly advecting in colder temperatures associated with the upper trough. The far southwest and southern James River Valley may get into the lower 50s Monday afternoon.
545 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather today. Low pressure is expected to track along the East Coast, resulting in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 for the start of the new work week. This will work to increase mid-level moisture toward the southeastern portions of the forecast area as well as the ridges. As a result, will keep a tight gradient of PoPs along the Ridges, with only slight chance west.
140 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Aviation/Hydro A weak cold front will diminish as it slips down into the Northern Great Lakes region today and tonight. An area of high pressure will then build into Michigan for Monday.
High pressure was centered over the Great Plains this morning. This high pressure isn't forecast to move much through the short term and is the primary weather producer during this period. Main forecast concern in the short term period are the high and low temperatures. H5 ridging and convergence will lead to subsidence across the area.
307 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will build into the region over the next couple of days, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week.
Cold core upper low steepening lapse rates a bit this morning and that is creating just enough elevated instability for a few lightning strikes to occur. Upper low continues to create weak instability and keep moderate moisture source over the mid-state.
334 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will move off the New England coast through Monday, keeping our weather rain-free during this time frame.
CLouds are beginning to clear rapidly as drier air filters in with the high pressure system. VFR conditions will prevail today through tonight as a 500mb ridge across the central United States provides subsidence across the area. This will continue this morning before drier air aloft moves into the CWA this afternoon as subsidence increases with northwest flow aloft as a 500mb ridge builds across the south-central United Stated today. Below normal temperatures will prevail across the area today through tonight as drier and slightly cooler air filters into the area this afternoon.
319 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will continue to work east across the region tonight and Monday as a cold front settles south into the Great Lakes. High pressure will regain control over the region as the front lifts back north Monday night.
341 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure continues to keep the North Country dry through Monday night.
A trough of low pressure tracking across southern FL will keep winds light and northeast and north but shifting to westerly in an afternoon sea breeze.
The surface and upper level ridge in place will quickly shift eastward allowing for a return of southerly surface winds and zonal flow aloft over the coming 24 hours. However the slightly improved moisture and backed flow east of the dryline should keep highs in the upper 80s, while west of the dryline many spots on the South Plains may make it up into the lower 90s.
107 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Latest upper air analysis depicts a ridge building southeast onto the Central Plains. Rounding the ridge were higher water vapor concentrations leading to cirrus. Late this morning, and into the afternoon, winds will continue to increase as the low level jet mixes to the ground. The south winds will cause temperatures to be warmer than yesterday. However winds will not be as strong as during the day due to the low level jet not mixing through the inversion. An upper level short wave trough will move through overnight behind the exiting ridge, but the dry environment will only allow clouds to form. The winds will cause lows to be warmer than yesterday.
159 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Upper level ridge extends across the Central High Plains, with southwest flow beginning to build into the Central Rockies. At the surface lee trough has developed across eastern Colorado, with high pressure with southerly gradient in place over our CWA.
333 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The cold front moved through southeast WI early this afternoon and temperatures dropped over 20 degrees in 20 minutes.
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Cooler and drier high pressure is currently building into the region at the surface while sharp trough axis aloft swings eastward.
252 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 As advertised, an upper low is moving northeastward across the Florida Peninsula with lobes of vorticity pivoting around the base of the low toward The Bahamas. Winds are out of the northwest from Key West to the Dry Tortugas, and south to southwest to the east of the Lower Keys currently. The upper low will continue to move northeast across the Florida Peninsula and The Bahamas overnight. A weak cold front will swing through the Florida Keys on Monday and Monday night, providing a high end slight chance of showers late Monday through midnight Monday night.
/17/ Latest satellite imagery showed the midlevel closed low moving over the region with wrap around clouds. Elsewhere across the region, cold air aloft in proximity to the low will result in widespread cloud cover and cool temperatures. Ridging at the surface and aloft will help cloud cover dissipate from the west after sunset.
The stratus cloud deck is thinning and dissipating quickly as the cooler and drier air filters into AR. Warmer temps will be seen as a result on Mon.