Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We are seeing a warmer start this morning than the last couple around the Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from as warm as the lower 60s out in Pittsburg, KS to 51 in Osage Beach at the time of writing this discussion. A warm southerly flow has taken shape across the region and should continue to bring warmer air into the region. Sky conditions will be mostly clear again today/tonight as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather.
High pressure at the surface and aloft covers the deep south.
306 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure over the southeast tonight will be pushed south a dry cold front Monday afternoon. High pressure building in from Canada will bring cool conditions to the region for the middle of the week. Temperatures will warm late in the week as the center of the high moves offshore.
By the end of the week another upper trough will approach and move through the area with more unsettled weather. Some clouds may spill into southern sections late tonight as a short wave rotates through the base of the trough. The nearby presence of the upper level low will allow for a continuation of chilly and windy conditions Monday night. The upper trough initially over the northeast CONUS will gradually lift out into the maritimes for the second half of the work week.
249 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Upper ridge remains over the area through Monday. With slightly warmer air off the ground, temperatures should still get to near what we have this afternoon. With the low/mid level air moistening a little from the west there could be just enough instability for a few light showers over the mountains in the late afternoon.
An the same time, and unrelated to the southern disturbance, a weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma by afternoon and stall before lifting back to the north on Monday.
253 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Another dry and pleasant afternoon is underway for Southeast Texas, with 2 PM CDT temperatures ranging from the mid 70s near the Piney Woods to the low 80s along the Upper Texas Coast. Otherwise, cloud cover and a gradual increase in low level moisture resulting in overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s (almost 10 degrees warmer than what was observed this morning).
/Issued 737 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ High pressure centered over AL will gradually shift east to over GA through Monday with generally clear skies.
/issued 937 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ Cool high pressure continues to settle into the region, bringing another day of dry and sunny conditions. From mid to late week, the gradient looks to tighten as high pressure strengthens to the north.
An upper ridge over the southern and central Rockies was slowly building northward.
Low pressure and the cold front will slide east southeast of the area by early this evening. Forecast soundings continue to show a little more depth to the moisture in the low levels. Tight pressure gradient in the wake of the low will continue to bring gusty winds to the area, becoming northwest to north and remaining gusty by early evening. High pressure building into the region from the northwest later tonight into Monday should bring quiet weather, with mostly clear skies and light winds. Cold air advection tonight into Monday will bring cooler temperatures into the area.
Will likely have to bump dewpoints up a tad as low-level southerly flow advects higher dewpoints northward ahead of the trough.
Mid level s/w trough axis from this morning has exited to the NE while an additional s/w vort max is approaching from the west. which will also in turn aid in keeping min temps slightly warmer than what was experienced this morning. resulting in max temps a degree or two warmer than today if enough sunshine can occur. with the clearer skies resulting in slightly cooler min temps.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PLAINS WILL GET SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. The large upper level ridge will amplify across Colorado through tonight in response to a deep upper low dropping south toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a weak cold front was pushing across the plains early this morning. Cooler high pressure will continue to build southward through the day and will result in cooler but still above normal temperatures across the plains. Abundant upper level ridging will dominate the bulk of Colorado weather this week. Early in the week, the ridge axis will be sliding eastward ahead of a weakening trough ejecting across the desert southwest.
305 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A weak cold front is moving across the combined Panhandles this afternoon and is expected to become a stationary boundary oriented SW to NE from Palo Duro Canyon to Canadian this evening. The main impact from this feature will be light northerly winds up to 10 MPH and slightly cooler overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s north of the front, and variable winds around 5 to 10 MPH with lows in the upper 40s south of the front. The stationary front will retreat northward through the day on Monday though high temperatures will be quite similar to today, and only a couple of degrees warmer in the northern combined Panhandles.
226 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Breezy conditions are in store for the region through this evening, with winds gusting up to 25 mph as a cold front moves through. Otherwise forecast will become tranquil as cold front pushes through the area, trimming about 10 degrees off of today highs for expected afternoon temps on Monday.
Short wave ridging will move overhead tomorrow but thickness values will be decreasing. Therefore, temperatures will be lower than observed today as a stalled out cold front retreats northward tomorrow.
High pressure is expected across the area early this week. A weak cold front is expected to drop through the area tonight, but a generally dry air mass suggests this front will be inactive. Upper flow expected to back some towards the end of this period as a upper trough moves into the Plains. Although there will probably be an increase in mid and high level cloud starting Monday night, it appears the precipitation threat with this trough will hold off until after this forecast period.
DHT's winds will get a little gusty as the trough passes by. Highs today will be a tad cooler today, especially across the north, given the more upslope wind. The upper level ridge over the southern plains breaks down and moves off to the east by Monday night. Meanwhile, a short wave trough over northern Mexico now moves northeast through the ridge tonight through early Monday.
1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 15z/10am surface analysis shows cold front extending from central Iowa into eastern Kansas. Ahead of the front, strong southerly flow is transporting much warmer air into central Illinois. ranging from the lower 70s near the Indiana border to the middle 70s along/west of I-55. Breezy and unseasonably warm conditions are expected across central and southeast Illinois today in advance of a cold front. Cooler temperatures, but more normal for late October, will filter across the area tonight behind the front.
A trough of low pressure moving through western states mainly north of us will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area through Monday night, but many locations will miss out.
241 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A crossing cold front will return shower chances to the area tonight, especially north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and cool weather returns for the first half of the week. A cold front is progged to quickly advance out of the Midwest, crossing the region overnight. A crossing low level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight in the ridges. Cold advection in northwest flow, and proximity to an upper trough across the NE CONUS, should keep stratocu across the region Monday.
1142 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 The cold front is mostly through the forecast area early this morning. Winds out west in the high country should pick up and veer to the southwest through the late morning as the front shifts east a bit into the plains. Temperatures will be cooler today and moisture higher tho, so fire weather concerns should remain minimal. Monday will be warmer as the thermal ridge moves overhead in southwest flow aloft. Increasing Pacific moisture from the southwest will bring showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm or two to the high country on Monday as well.
249 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A strong low pressure system over eastern Canada will keep windy and cool conditions over the region today.
Temps were holding in the low to mid 70s, as of 1 pm and afternoon highs should reach a couple of degrees higher than what is currently observed. The upper level ridge will continue to build, however a weak disturbance over TX is expected to dampen the ridge slightly overnight. The weak disturbance over Texas will become absorbed in the upper ridge, as it briefly builds in across the southeast.
230 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 High pressure will continue to build over the SE US today and tonight. This high will weaken as shift south of the area on Monday, in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. Modest CAA Monday evening/night on the leading edge of Canadian high pressure building into the area from the NW will support lows in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s south.
225 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure has migrated southward and now resides over the Gulf Coast states. This has allowed our winds to shift to southwesterly and warmer air has been able to move into the region. We are running 10 to 15 degrees warmer at this hour then we were yesterday. On the surface charts, a weak cold front is poised from a low pressure in Wisconsin and trails southwestward into IL, MO and KS. This low will quickly move southeastward the rest of today and into tonight, dragging the cold front through our region. Behind the front, a cooler Canadian air mass will filter into the region in association with a strong high pressure system.
244 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Flat upper ridge rebuilding over the region today, bringing lighter winds and continued mild temps to most locations. On Monday, ridge shifts east with increasing upper level moisture west of the Continental Divide as upper trough continues to move into the Great Basin.
/issued 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak upper level low will track across West Central Texas today, then shift east of the area overnight. The main impact that this low will have on the area is an increase in mid to upper level cloud cover, especially across the southern half of the region. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 70s across the southern portions of the area, where more cloud cover is expected, to the low 80s across much of the rest of the area.
Warmer and slightly more humid conditions are expected for Monday with temperatures reaching well into the 80s.
An upper level ridge will dominate during this period.
626 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure over the southeast tonight will be pushed south a dry cold front Monday afternoon. High pressure building in from Canada will bring cool conditions to the region for the middle of the week. Temperatures will warm late in the week as the center of the high moves offshore.
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A trough of low pressure will move through the region through Monday and bring up moisture from the south.
The upper support is more impressive than the low level dynamics so will limit rain to the northernthird of the forecast area. Warm advection ahead of the surface cold front should boost temperatures a few degrees above normal today.
212 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure over the area will bring mostly clear skies and light winds through Monday night in the short term period. a degree or two warmer for Tue. with next cold front approach the area from the NW over the weekend.
An incoming cold front has done little to impact sensible weather, but does bring in drier dewpoints and has prevented highs from rising a few degrees more. This cooler high pressure remains over the area into Monday afternoon but the end result will only be a few degrees cooler than todays numbers with highs in the middle 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side Monday.
Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows broad ridge still in place across southern plains, with westerly flow across the northern plains. A weak cold front has moved into our northern CWA, and is now moving into our NW Kansas counties.
531 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A crossing cold front will return shower chances to the area tonight, especially north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and cool weather returns for the first half of the week. A cold front is progged to quickly advance out of the Midwest, crossing the region overnight. A crossing low level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight in the ridges. Cold advection in northwest flow, and proximity to an upper trough across the NE CONUS, should keep stratocu across the region Monday.
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A cold front will swing east of our area by mid morning, leading to a cooler and breezy day. Under mostly sunny skies highs will range from the upper 50s through the Highway 14 corridor, to the mid 60s through the lower Missouri River Valley into our lower northwest Iowa zones. An upper ridge of high pressure is situated west of the forecast area, with a mild southeast flow of air in this forecast area. Therefore mixed in some raw model values which were substantially warmer, especially the non bias corrected temperatures.
436 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Strong low pressure will remain to our north tonight and Monday.
Gusty winds along the ridges starting this evening. Besides moderate rainfall, also expect gusty southerly winds to develop, mainly along the ridge top locations.
Most of this will not reach the ground as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain dry. The high clouds overnight will likely help keep IFR ceilings from developing around day break and will keep BKN015 in the I-35 sites from 10-15z and an hour later for DRT. Will see more clouds today than previous couple of days, however, temperatures are still expected to reach the lower 80s along and east of I-35. A mid level trough currently over Mexico will move across Texas in the short term steadily increasing moisture over South Central Texas.
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Tonight through Monday afternoon, Ridging aloft continues to build across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, while high pressure at the surface slides east of the forecast area. As far as temperatures are concerned, moisture subtly increasing during the period will result in slightly warmer conditions compared to the previous couple of days. With some high clouds again streaming east overhead, lows tonight will be a little warmer as they'll range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Then for Monday afternoon, highs will top out in the lower 80s areawide.
325 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 High pressure over the Southeast will weaken tonight and Monday in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. High pressure will then build in from the north through midweek. West-northwesterly low-level flow will continue for the first half of Monday ahead of a dry cold front dropping south through the Mid- Atlantic States. Mixing to around 850mb through mid-afternoon should result in highs approaching 80 in the south ahead of the front, a little cooler in the low/mid 70s across the north where 850mb temps will begin to fall after 18Z. Weak cold advection and northerly flow will push lows back down into the low 40s on Monday night.
237 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A weak cold front is moving through the area currently. The only effect of this will have is a wind switch to the north and a bit cooler temperatures tomorrow.
Moisture advection and a mid level s/w trough will allow for an increase in clouds across much of the region.
Only thing that may keep temps up just a tad is the higher dewpoints/higher low level moisture over the area. High pressure will move off to the east on Monday, with increasing southeast winds through the day.
/Today/ Currently have an area of low pressure situated across eastern ND stretching down to the south through eastern NE and into SE Colorado. An associated cold front will slide into Iowa today and push into northern MO by this evening. Very little moisture associated with the frontal passage, therefore will mainly see a wind switch and cooler temperatures especially across the north. Still expecting highs in the low to mid 60s north with highs in the 70s south.
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 High pressure will continue to build over the SE US today and tonight. This high will weaken as shift south of the area on Monday, in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. Modest CAA Monday evening/night on the leading edge of Canadian high pressure building into the area from the NW will support lows in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s south.
Clear and quiet conditions will persist across the forecast area today, as high pressure at both the surface and aloft remain in control of out weather.
1129 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Lighter winds are expected today as the upper ridge rebuilds over the region. Cold front is making progress southward through east central Colorado and should move through all of southeast CO by 14Z. Winds will shift around from the east behind the front across the plains with temperatures around 10 degrees or so cooler than yesterday. Low temperatures should be somewhat warmer out west given increasing high cloudiness.
Diurnally- forced flow will set up beneath this high pressure, with onshore daytime flow and offshore nighttime flow expected. With continued dry conditions and mostly clear skies, plentiful radiational cooling overnight tonight will once again result in low temperatures dipping into the low 40s inland to around 50 near the coast. High temperatures Monday afternoon begin a slow warming trend, with highs in the low to mid 80s expected across the area.
Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure currently exists over the Desert Southwest. This has formed a large broad ridge over the western half of the CONUS which crests near zonal flow over Montana. Upstream a large highly amplified trough sets off the coast of British Columbia and is dipping south off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Today through Monday: broadened ridge influence across the region will remain the key player during these periods. meanwhile the trough to the west will break up and move inland.
The portions of southeastern KY that are more under the influence of this high pressure have fallen into the mid to upper 30s this morning. Highs will top out in the lower 70s in most locations. Lows tonight will be warmer as well, ranging from the mid 40s to around 50. For Monday, a dry cold front will swing through the region by around mid day. Highs look to range from the mid 60s across southern IN and north central KY to the lower 70s across south central KY Monday.
A strong upper low and trough remains located a few hundred miles off the Pacific Northwest coast this morning. The cloud cover will keep temperatures down and similar to or a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. However, the southern third of the area will be a few degrees warmer as southerly winds pick up this afternoon to 10 to 15 mph and that will warm temperatures several degrees above yesterday.
234 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure will remain across the area today before a dry cold front crosses through on Monday. Strong high pressure will quickly build back in from the north through the middle of the week.
306 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Cold front currently crossing the Mississippi River into west- central Illinois will swing through the area late this afternoon into the evening. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 40s. while highs on Monday reach the lower to middle 60s.
Ridging expected for Monday which should be another nice fall day.
In the meantime, with decent gradient between the ridge and cold front, gusty south to southwest winds will help temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s under sunny skies. With little in the way of moisture associated with cold front, it will slide through dry late this afternoon before exiting forecast area this evening. Not a lot of cold air behind this front, so will see lows near normal in the low 40s far north to the upper 40s south tonight. The cold front currently northwest of both the UIN and COU terminals should clear all TAF sites by early this evening. The cold front will clear the terminal by 4z with only a few high level clouds.
314 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Water vapor imagery shows upper ridging over the Rockies with a weak southern stream impulse lifting across southwest TX. At the surface, a weak cold front extends from far northeast KS into the OK Panhandle. Upper ridging will briefly slide over the Plains for Mon into Mon evening setting up another day of above normal temps Mon. Upper ridging will quickly build-in behind the departing wave Wed night into Thu. This solution would push a strong cold front across the central Plains for the weekend. At this point, have a slight lean to the ECMWF based on the GFS being too agressive with the last strong cold front it advertised. VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs as a cold front pushes southward across Kansas today.
After a colder than expected start to the day, especially in the southeast part of the forecast area, sunshine and a southwest breeze helped warm temperatures back into the lower 70s across the area today. With little moisture and virtually no clouds associated with the cold front, only a temperature drop of around 5 degrees is expected for daytime highs on Monday - into the mid 60s to around 70.
At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the forecast area.
Very strong lift occurring north of the track however moisture is quite limited with very dry air in the lower and mid levels. High pressure behind the departing wave will bring clearing trend Monday starting from far southern counties to the Thumb region by evening.
High pressure northeast of our area will slide to the east with weak lee troughing forming tomorrow.
As for those clouds, expect broken stratocumulus to fade by late afternoon/evening but plenty of cirrus should continue well into the night as weak upper level disturbance in southwest flow behind the 500 mb ridge keeps the clouds coming from time to time.
430 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the south starting to yield to an inbound dry cold front to the northwest. The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all show Kentucky in the midst of fairly fast northwest flow between a deep trough to the northeast and rather flat ridging west. A weak trough will pass by to the north tonight into Monday morning but its energy stays well off to the northeast to have any real affect on our weather. Given the good agreement have favored a general blend with emphasis on the higher resolution guidance from the HRRR and NAM12, along with some deference to the COOP MOS guidance - especially Monday night.
High confidence of a dry forecast in the short term as a reinforcing high pressure system moves southeast in the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight.
Upper level flow from the northwest becomes more west northwest as the upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico slowly slides eastward through tonight. Meanwhile high pressure continues to dominate at the surface. At most places, expect to be a few degrees warmer for low temperatures tomorrow morning as compared to this morning with lows in the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to lower 50s at the coast.
High pressure continues to build into the area, with VFR conditions and light and variable winds expected through the forecast period. This builds a ridge east over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing increasing subsidence into the forecast.