Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler and much drier air continues to build into the area this afternoon on the heels of a cold front that passed through the region this morning. Winds will become southerly tomorrow night, helping to keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid to upper 20s. If this materializes, a few flurries or perhaps patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle will be possible, but potential seems rather low given the dry air in place across the region.
Latest WPC surface analysis shows a trough located in the Gulf of Mexico, accompanied by a warm front draped from central Florida eastward over the Atlantic. As the trough lifts northeast this afternoon, convection will be mainly confined to areas north of our CWA. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the amplifying mid-level trough shifts eastward with associated clouds and convection. Slightly warmer temperatures and additional cloud cover are also expected today.
112 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Upper level flow will remain amplified, but progressive in the period, bringing unseasonably warm weather with periodic ridge topping/flattening impulses in the flow. Vigorous mid level impulse will push into the region Thur night int Fri, supporting a cold front and some precip chances over the western 1/3.
236 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A weak area of low pressure will develop off the Florida coast, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast tonight. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. Latest satellite shows a southern stream short wave trough in the NE GOM, lifting NEWD. Its attendant sfc cold front will move through during the morning into mid-day hours, followed by subtle CAA, subsidence and drying in its wake. High pressure will gradually build to our north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Look for lows from the lower 30s north (lighter wind closer to the high center) to upper 30s south (where thicker highs clouds will be found).
The latest models have trended warmer 00Z model soundings become well mixed through at least 925mb, where temps between 6-8C should support highs well into the 50s. Clouds will increase tonight, as a cold front pushes into the area. GFS, NAM and EC all showing a band of 850-700mb fgen forcing within right jet entrance region, resulting in bulk of precip falling in colder air behind surface cold front. However, approach of high pressure and falling inversion heights should result in minimal accums early in the day across the western mountains. GEFS mean 8h temps between -4C and -9C should translate to highs from the low 30s across the high terrain of northwest Pa, to the upper 40s across Lancaster Co.
Upper level ridge remains the dominate over the region over the next several days bringing unseasonably warm temperatures. The ridge amplifies northward Wednesday morning pushing the moisture northward into Central/Northern Idaho. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 50s today and climb to near records tomorrow with low to mid 60s possible in the lower valleys. Moisture is expected to continue to ride along the ridge through Wednesday, keeping showers possible. Models in decent agreement with the highest liquid amounts over the West Central and Boise Mountains of Idaho, and into Baker County of Oregon.
This means more snow and less of a freezing pcpn threat. If the pcpn moves through quicker than expected, there would be an even lower freezing pcpn threat. High pressure over the Northern Plains will make for a quiet and seasonably cold Thanksgiving day.
A dry northerly flow over our area with strong high pressure off the Baja coast and a trough downstream. The ridge centered just off the Baja Peninsula will reorient it's axis in a northeasterly direction and into our area over the next 48 hours as a strong system off the Pacific Northwest coast tries to push inland.
239 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Wind speeds in the wake of the cold front have begun to diminish faster than originally expected, so the Wind Advisory was dropped at 11AM as no observations were reaching criteria any longer. With persistent northwest flow, temperatures will remain below freezing, seeing no daytime improvement and combined with the breezy conditions, the apparent temperature will be in the teens all afternoon. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today with low to mid 30s expected area-wide. By tomorrow evening, the building ridge across the western CONUS will begin encroaching on western MN leading in to Thanksgiving day.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The main event in the short term portion of the forecast will be the passage of a cold front and a 500 mb trough through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the overnight hours tonight.
956 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Water vapor shows trof axis moving from the Dakotas into the upper Midwest, and upper ridge over the western CONUS. Short wave at the base of trof resulting in band of light snow shifting southward through the cwfa. At the surface, high pressure building into the Northern Plains early this morning with brisk northwest winds and much colder temps. Warm advection will return in earnest tonight as lee trof quickly advances into eastern MT/WY. Much warmer temps and dry conditions then expected Wednesday and Thanksgiving as upper ridge axis shifts eastward across the Northern Rockies/Plains.
KCRP VAD wind profile shows the low level flow has veered to southwesterly. Isolated to scattered showers still expected with passage of the short wave trough later tonight along with the cold front.
Our southeastern counties could see a scattered thunderstorm along the lingering theta-e axis associated with this morning's cold front. A weak trough will quickly traverse the region overnight and into Sunday morning.
335 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the northwest today and crosses the region later tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest to bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Cold front stalls out across Southern West Virginia on Monday morning.
Subjective 20z sfc analysis places the initial trough axis boundary across NW Iowa into SE Nebraska. It is almost starting to appear as if any threat for severe wx will be driven by this low.
Although primary band of showers and thunderstorms have moved east of the state, isolated showers perist ahead of the trailing cold front over south-central Wisconsin. Highs on Monday will be about 10 degrees cooler as boundary layer winds turn NNE in the wake of a weak cold front dropping southward across the state.
118 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Easter Sunday will be quite warm ahead of a cold front that will cross Pennsylvania Sunday night, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/ High dewpoints in the 50s and 60s remain ahead of the dryline and cold front.
High pressure from the western Atlantic across the central Gulf Coast will remain in place through the near term. At best a scattered coverage is expected with the highest chances again across the western zones. Highs on Sunday will climb into the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
Weak cold front has backed up against the mountains this afternoon, mainly delivering slightly cooler air to the eastern plains. These storms are forming over a pretty dry airmass, with dewpoints in the lower 30s near and east of the storm. Various runs of the high resolution models suggest some isolated showers or possibly even thunderstorms could occur above the frontal boundary over the east but the activity doesn't look too intense or widespread. High temperatures Monday will warm about 10 degrees than the high temperatures on Sunday.
442 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A cold front will pass through the region with a round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening.
404 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Easter Sunday will be quite warm ahead of a cold front that will cross Pennsylvania tonight.
524 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with a crossing cold front. Low pressure traversing rapidly from the Northern Lakes across Southeastern Canada will shunt a cold front across the Upper Ohio later today.
A southerly flow around this high continued to bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico further inland. In fact, some of this lower level moisture was beginning to show up in the GOES fog/low cloud products south of this region. Unseasonably mild weather continued across the greater Tennessee Valley, with night time lows so far only in the low/mid 60s. The upper ridge that helped with the very warm temperatures of late was moving off of the southeast coast, while a system over the NE Pacific basin heads towards the OR/CA coast. To our NW, an active thunderstorm complex; in part associated with a southeastward moving cold front were in progress from Lake Huron to the KS/OK border.
336 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure will move across the forecast area today. These areas show a modestly deep layer of moisture between 700mb and 500mb along a very weak mid level short wave moving southeastward on the southern side of an upper low to our north. Otherwise with light winds late tonight, trended toward cooler guidance readings such as MOS for lows.
249 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure remains just off the southeast coast through today. The next cold front is expected to slowly cross the area Monday afternoon.
Today, an upper low over southern Canada will dive southeastward with associated cold front clipping easternmost Montana late this afternoon. Expecting a pleasant Easter Sunday with highs in the low 50s and mainly clear skies. Upper-level ridging slides in place which should keep the lows in the upper 30s to low 40s in the foothills and central Plains.
647 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A cold front will pass through the region with a round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening.
451 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Easter Sunday will be quite warm ahead of a cold front that will cross Pennsylvania tonight.
This will allow an also weakening upper trough to filter east into and forecast area through Sunday. As expected, some showers have developed across the forecast area this afternoon as a result of the incoming trough and increasing moisture and afternoon heating. With some low clouds expected to develop overnight, lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Otherwise, skies on Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy and high again warm into the low and middle 80s.
410 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 The period will begin with a cold front becoming stationary near the TN/VA borders to KY Monday night.
The trough will push to the northeast, and a very short lived ridge will build in overhead late tonight into early Monday morning. Despite the ridge, showers will continue under moist onshore flow.
Weak upper troughing, PWATS around 1. With the cloud cover expect temperatures to remain in the low 80s across the area. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place across the region as temperatures rise into the lower to mid 80s and PW values will be around 1.
With temperatures in the low 80s today, any storms that can creep into our northern counties will have a chance to become strong.
Clouds will thicken on Sunday evening as Pacific moisture moves into the western US with the next closed low over Oregon.
141 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the west Sunday and crosses Sunday night. High pressure builds overnight before next cold front arrives late Sunday. Cold front will be knocking on the door across the western zones as the short term starts.
Rain chances should diminish Wed-Fri as a ridge begins nosing into the region from the southwest.
246 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High dewpoints in the 50s and 60s remain ahead of the dryline and cold front.
Brief upper level ridging is passing over the area this morning, but a low off the coast of northern CA will rapidly move northeast today. As the low continues northeast tonight, the chance for precipitation will move over the entire area. QPF is fairly high for such a quick-hitting system, with the mountains expected to receive between a half and three-quarters of an inch while the lower elevations average around a tenth. Monday, after a cold front moves through southeast Oregon Sunday night and southwest Idaho Monday morning, we'll see temps down to near normal. This translates to the lower 60s in the Snake River Plain and 40s to lower 50s in the mountains.
311 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with a crossing cold front. Low pressure traversing rapidly from the Northern Lakes across Southeastern Canada will shunt a cold front across the Upper Ohio later today.
226 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure remains just off the southeast coast through today. The next cold front is expected to slowly cross the area Monday afternoon.
106 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the west Sunday and crosses Sunday night. High pressure builds overnight before next cold front arrives late Sunday. Cold front will be knocking on the door across the western zones as the short term starts.
An area of SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the NRN terminals tomorrow as a complex of convection moves towards the CWA ahead of an approaching cold front. Central plains cold front is forecast to approach northern sections of the state on Sunday, while decelerating.
While gusts will taper off after sunset, increased surface winds will persist ahead of a cold front expected to push through northwest Missouri this evening.
250 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the forecast area. Strong westerly jet is to the south of the low across the Northern Plains, with fast zonal flow stretching back to the Pacific NW. The dry cold front to the northwest will slowly slide south across the area today. Front to the south will lift back north into the area as a warm front during the day as low pressure develops along it across eastern WY. The best chances for rainfall late Monday into Monday night will be mostly east of the Black Hills as low pressure moves quickly across SD during this time.
605 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the northwest today and crosses the region later tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest to bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Cold front stalls out across Southern West Virginia on Monday morning.
104 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 The cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast across our cwa this afternoon, and was located from KOLU to KHLC at 20Z. High pressure settles in overnight and temperatures will be noticeably cooler with lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s northwest to southeast. Readings look to be above thresholds for frost which is a warmer trend than models indicated a couple of days ago.
A ridge of high pressure will continue building into the two state area tonight with mostly clear skies expected. Overnight temps are expected to fall near the freezing mark or lower which has prompted a freeze warning for locations in and near the columbia basin and foothills of the blue mountains.
Morning Coastal Hazard Message and Hazardous Weather Outlook will further detail rough surf and the high rip current risk. High pressure will elongate near 30N with continued onshore flow, though weakening overnight. Lows will range from the upper 50s across portions of the interior to the lower to mid 60s closer to the east coast.
638 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure remains just off the southeast coast through today. The next cold front is expected to slowly cross the area Monday afternoon.
/issued 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017/ High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast with a ridge extending into Gulf has maintained a fairly steady southeast flow across the region with inlux of moisture and precipitable water in the 1. Weak mid level trough and daytime heating has promoted the developement of scattered showers across area. The ridge pattern should persist for the next few days with scattered to locally numerous showers developing with daytime heating.
636 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will weaken Monday as a cold front moves into the area.
306 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the west today and crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds overnight before next cold front arrives late Sunday. Cold front stalls out across Southern West Virginia on Monday morning.
The cold front should not actually cross the Red River, however, convective induced outflows will have a good chance of reaching the CWA.
A flattening upper ridge across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, but moisture and instability is marginal. Only forcing will remain the higher terrain so only expect isolated/widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today. For tonight, convection that develops along southern Ohio Valley cold front may move into the northern Plateau and southwest Virginia.
636 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region today in advance of a cold front, and will linger into tonight. High pressure and dry weather will return to the area for the beginning of the work week. Convergence then increases from the nw as a cold front works into the region this afternoon. A storm or two could be lingering in nrn KY early Monday, before the pcpn finally gets shunted south as high pressure builds in. Temperatures Monday will be cooler, ranging from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south.
On Wed, flat upper ridging will dominate our portion of the country as an upper trough moves into the Northern/Central Plains quickly ejecting out into the Great Lakes Region for Thu.
Upstream energy supports a near seasonal high pressure system to migrate into region Sunday into Monday with nice spring weather. Clearing late with cooler air support mins near 50F far NW with near 60F far SE sections. High pressure to bring fair skies and nice April weather with highs upper 60s to lower 70s and low humidity.
550 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Low clouds have quickly moved north across the area today, with cloud bases mainly in the low mvfr to high ifr range. On Wed, flat upper ridging will dominate our portion of the country as an upper trough moves into the Northern/Central Plains quickly ejecting out into the Great Lakes Region for Thu.
Under mostly cloudy skies, outgoing longwave radiation will be deterred, so overnight lows will only be in the low 60s.
222 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure remains just off the southeast coast through today. The next cold front is expected to slowly cross the area Monday afternoon.
Ridging from this high across the CWFA this afternoon. Getting wind gusts anywhere from 42 MPH out by Arlington to the low 30s in and around Scottsbluff. GFS 700mb temperatures raise from -2C today up to +4 to +6C Sunday afternoon, so afternoon highs maybe 10-12 degrees warmer over todays highs.
328 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front extending from Wisconsin into eastern Kansas. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s.
Kanofsky Cold front over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa will move southeast into Missouri tonight and continue to drift southward to stall across southern Missouri Sunday. Additionally, the southwest end of the MCS over Oklahoma and southwest Missouri will likely disrupt the low level jet further northeast over our area and suck up much of the available instability which should further weaken storms over our area. but we've been running warm so I leaned a little closer to the warmer MAV guidance. Carney The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the cold front on Sunday evening across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
1102 PM MDT Sat Apr 15 2017 West flow aloft will dry as broad high pressure ridge builds north from Great Basin across western Wyoming. This will bring lighter winds and warmer temperatures through Sunday night. Then a short wave low pressure trough will bring increased showers over the western mountains with snow mainly above 7800 feet.
This afternoon, the surface cold front was located in western Kansas with a tight pressure gradient continuing over the area today. Main focus of the period is with thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday than today due to persistent northeasterly flow and cloud cover. Sunday night the cold front will stall out over southern KS as the flow aloft becomes zonal.
333 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Easter Sunday will be quite warm ahead of a cold front that will cross Pennsylvania tonight.
High pressure continues to control our weather across the Florida peninsula.
416 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 An unsettled period is in store as a cold front approaches and then slowly settles south through the region. The period will begin with a cold front becoming stationary near the TN/VA borders to KY Monday night.
1250 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 For the 06Z TAFs, a cold front will move southward across the terminal sites this morning with north to northeast winds in its wake. North and northeast surface winds can be expected behind cold front. A pre-frontal trough boundary can be seen on radar this afternoon in the northern TX Panhandle. The cold front is currently draped across KS and CO and will continue pushing south into the Panhandles overnight and make its way through by Sunday afternoon.
Cooler with lingering showers and a few thunderstorms this High Impact Weather Potential. Low pressure is tracking NE out of Southern Wisconsin toward Northern Lower Michigan early this morning. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to fire ahead of this low. especially along and north of the associated warm front. Heaviest precip is falling mainly along and south of M-32 in proximity to a narrow instability axis along and just north of the warm front. Temps will be noticeably cooler today as compared to yesterday thanks to CAA in the wake of the low. Low temps tonight will also be noticeably cooler.
A strong cold front will follow in its wake Sunday morning, increasing NE winds with gusts near 30 mph or higher expected through midday. Kept forecast highs in the lower 60s, but between the stratus, NE winds and cool advection, additional showers and wet grounds, wouldn't be surprised if many locations are stuck in the 50s today.
227 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Mild conditions will persist tonight ahead of a cold front advancing from the west. High pressure and dry weather will return to the area for the beginning of the work week. Most locations should be free from precip late Sunday night once the front passes south of the Ohio River and high pressure builds from the northwest.
A weak ridge of high pressure has moved over the Northern Rockies. This ridge has allowed the skies to clear overnight,causing temperatures to drop into the 20s and even into the teens for most valley locations this morning.
/Issued 312 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017/ GOES-16 water vapor loop shows majority of the Southeast under the influence of a weak mid-upper level ridge. Latest analysis of the sfc also shows the region under the influence of a ridge. a cyclone progressing from the Great Lakes region into New England Sunday into Sunday night will push a cold front towards the area late Sunday night going into Monday.
559 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front extending from Wisconsin into eastern Kansas. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s.
1025 PM PDT Sat Apr 15 2017 Many locations will dip below freezing tonight but will recover to the upper 50s and lower 60s on Sunday. This is followed by a generally dry and rather clear and sunny Sunday starting out with some cold freezing temperatures. Clouds thicken and lower as they invade the sky from the south and west signaling the approach of a warm front tomorrow.