Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
538 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT BECAME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA YESTERDAY EVENING. NORTHERN OHIO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. CONVECTION DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ACTIVITY WAS CAUSED BY A MID LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12500 AND 13000 FT TODAY. AFTER TODAY, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING EAST WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
WITH A GRADUAL DRIFT TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING INCREASES FROM THE EAST.
449 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT BECAME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA YESTERDAY EVENING. NORTHERN OHIO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. CONVECTION DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
Updated at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2015 Warm and somewhat muggy air mass is well established under weak surface and upper ridging, as the Ohio Valley sits in between a slow-moving front draped across northern Illinois and Indiana, and a more weakly capped (and therefore unsettled) air mass over the Deep South.
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT: THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WILL N OF THE FCST AREA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE W AND A RIDGE IN THE E. THE LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL OPEN UP AND MEANDER E THRU THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. THEN INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS/EC/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. SAT: MORE TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE TROF REMAINING OVERHEAD. TSTM THREATS APPEAR TO DECREASE WITH TEMPS INCREASING AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREAS AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WILL KEEP MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY, DRY WEATHER. A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO COASTAL AREAS, STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
442 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2015 (Today and Tonight) Another dry, breezy, warm and sunny day is on tap for West Central Texas today as temperatures soar into the lower to mid 90s areawide. A broad ridge of high pressure across the Southern Plains will continue to produce sinking air which tends to dry and warm the airmass over the area.
PER BUILDING FROM THE EAST BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT THU THRU SAT NIGHT. AT LEAST INITIALLY AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE GA OR ERN FL COAST BY SAT MORNING. AND DESPITE THESE BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES. MORE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SE TO NW AS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT PROGRESS. THE MAIN WX SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
231 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT BECAME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA YESTERDAY EVENING. NORTHERN OHIO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. CDFNT EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT IN AN E-W FASHION ACROSS OUR CWA AS RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. EXCEPT PRBLY A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NRN ZONES WHICH STAY NORTH OF FRONT MOST IF NOT ALL DAY.
On Friday a dry cold front will cool temperatures back to near normal but bring increased winds with continued dry conditions. High pressure remains in control over the region with dry and breezy conditions prevailing. GFS MOS guidance shows near Red Flag conditions for KMWH again Thursday afternoon and criteria met on Friday as a dry cold front approaches the forecast area. /Kelch 06Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure over the aviation area will keep VFR conditions continuing at all TAF sites through 06Z Friday.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN A MUGGY AIRMASS. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WOULD EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER, STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE HIT-AND-MISS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, AS COOLER AIR THERE WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS A BIT LESS UNSTABLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THE PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL ONLY COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND STALLS.
300 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTERACTS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND ROCKIES. COMBINED WITH BROAD UVV AHEAD OF SAID TROUGH AND WEAK THOUGH RELATIVELY DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND SAID FRONT. MAINLY ON TOP OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
652 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
413 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BRINGING A DAY OF AMPLE SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
121 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
214 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYERED DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING POPS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER AS WE SEE SOME RETURN MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WORKING ACROSS WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH THAT WON'T DEPART TO THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY.
658 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THEN STALL. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS. WHILE THE MAIN CLOSED LOW PROPAGATES WELL DOWN STREAM THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH OR DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
A CUTOFF 500 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN BETWEEN A 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND THE 500 MB LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
342 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER COLORADO/KANSAS. COOLER SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. TONIGHT THE WEAK HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
206 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PA TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SLOWLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL OUT GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A RE-ESTABLISHED LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
225 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. MOST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS UNDER FAIR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH STATE.
A cold front will sag into northern KS and northwest MO Thursday evening and will likely spark additional showers and thunderstorms. Cold front should be moving fast enough to prevent a widespread heavy rain threat although pockets of heavy rain are certainly possible especially over northwest MO. Thursday night's cold front will stall just to our south on Friday then slowly lift back north over the weekend.
359 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 A BROAD UPPER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOT AND WINDY DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
330 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 EXPECTING JUST A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
1241 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
320 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
655 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP FROM THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
730 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S AND WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO OFFSETTING INSOLATION. WED-THU: COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR WED. SUGGEST TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON FRI. TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE ON SAT-SAT NIGHT AND ANOTHER TROUGH ON SUN. IT APPEARS THIS LATER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO GET PULLED INTO THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. BUT WILL START OUT KRSL AND KGBD AS RAIN AROUND 02/03Z AS TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
946 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALFOT AS UPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES.
WITH FRONT THAT MOVED THRU MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON COMING BACK AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO MID STATE DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. AFTER TEMPS INITIALLY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
935 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
915 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
707 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
437 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING UP FROM COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITHIN THE TROUGH. AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE THE WEST-EAST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO PICKUP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DROPPED THE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AWAITING THE RETURN OF RAIN WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GREAT WITH A SLOW DOWN IN COOLING UNDER THE LOW DECK. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 68 55 64 / 20 30 100 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 66 55 65 / 20 20 100 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 66 55 62 / 20 20 100 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 63 51 65 / 20 20 60 100 NC.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY MORNING WILL VEER WINDS TWD NNW. DEEP BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
839 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
914 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 UPDATE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW.
FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED 7-11Z FROM NW TO SE AS A PREFRONTAL TROF MAKES ITS WAY THRU THE REGION. NEXT ISSUE IS THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT MARCHING EAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM.
525 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE OVERSPREADING THE ROLLING PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY MORNING WILL VEER WINDS TWD NNW. DEEP BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
1005 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S AND WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
WITH FRONT THAT MOVED THRU MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON COMING BACK AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO MID STATE DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. AFTER TEMPS INITIALLY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. THEN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN AS WARM FRONT BRINGS FOG AND STRATUS. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS WITH DEVELOPING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
557 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW. COOLER AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEEP VIGOROUS UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CO THIS AFTN AND CONTINUES TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT WITH 50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.
706 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
701 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW.
1051 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
1023 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THINKING WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. COOLER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S.
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS HIGHWAY 30 WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE OUR SOUTHERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER CAPE. STRONG CYCLONE (FOR MID AUGUST) WILL TRACK INTO NW WI BY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
1032 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A MOIST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S LOOK REASONABLE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WHICH HI RES MODEL TO FOLLOW FOR EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR SERN SD AS IT MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH.
1038 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MINNESOTA. 12Z MODEL RUNS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. EVENTUALLY WILL LOSE THE STRONGER FORCING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WHILE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST ALLOWS A TRANSITION TO LIGHT S/SW WINDS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 84 73 84 / 50 70 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 84 72 82 / 60 70 50 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 84 71 82 / 60 70 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 83 68 83 / 60 60 30 70.
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/ COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING. BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE 700MB AND 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MUCH COOLER DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS.
1250 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 Primary concern in the short term will be severe weather chances tonight associated an approaching cold front. Based on the current progression of the cold front, it should pass through the metro area between 7 and 8 PM, and clear out of the forecast area before midnight.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1154 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR ANY PCPN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.
926 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH ITS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW WARM AND HUMID AIR TO REMAIN OVER OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
930 PM PDT TUE AUG 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
NORTHERN COLORADO REMAINS IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TODAY FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS TROF AND COLD FRONT. 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN MONTANA DROPPED TO -1C AT GGW AND EVEN 03-5C OVER BACK EDGE OF TROF IN CANADA.
STILL HAVE A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS AS THEY ARRIVE BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND USHER IN THE COOLER AIR WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. REMNANTS OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST REACHES OF THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW APPROACHING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACCORDING TO BOTH NAEFS AND GEFS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AND UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 Primary concern in the short term will be severe weather chances tonight associated an approaching cold front. Based on the current progression of the cold front, it should pass through the metro area between 7 and 8 PM, and clear out of the forecast area before midnight.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS CENT FL SO THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT S/SW FLOW TO START TURNING ONSHORE IN A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN. LIGHT S/SW WINDS INVOF RIDGE AXIS WILL TURN E/SE BEHIND SEA BREEZE 16Z-18Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE LCL WX PATTERN. RIDGE MAY SPLIT E OF THE BAHAMA BANK TOWARD WEEK'S END AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS HIGHWAY 30 WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE OUR SOUTHERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER CAPE. STRONG CYCLONE (FOR MID AUGUST) WILL TRACK INTO NW WI BY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.