Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
553 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
643 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
ALOFT THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE TN VALLEY WHILE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING.
LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MLCAPE WILL REACH THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL SD.
1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 259 PM CDT EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD. UNFORTUNATELY THE LAKESHORE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE KEPT COOLER BY ONSHORE FLOW. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY / SOUTHEAST U.
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE WELL EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO AROUND 50. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL IN. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING THROUGH 875 TO 850 MB WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE STAYED A TOUCH COOLER IN SE AREAS BUT DID RAISE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70.
215 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
AIDED IN PART BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A SFC TROF THAT WILL EDGE NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS SFC TROF MAY FOCUS SOME TSTRM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DECENT CAPES LURKING VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST PART OF THE CWA IF NOT JUST A LITTLE INSIDE.
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
Diurnal CU looks pretty likely this afternoon, especially across much of southern and central Missouri where drier air has had less chance to scour out the low level moisture.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD BE SPREADING INTO DEWEY/STANLEY/JONES COUNTIES BY 05Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW THEN CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ON SHORE. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT POPS ARE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
545 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH STILL REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
421 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A CLOSED LOW TRACKING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MORE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN RANGE AND BRINGS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY A BIT MORE ABUNDANT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ALSO SPINNING OVER CENTRAL KY AND TN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DECREASE SOME WEST THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUE EAST AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES CONTINUES TO EXTEND RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS NOW ESSENTIALLY DEAD OVERHEAD. THE RIDGING BECOMES A BIT LESS PROMINENT TONIGHT. THE LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. AND MAX TEMPS WILL THUS BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN A SMIDGE AS THE HIGH TO OUR EAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY. BUT COMING ON THE HEELS OF A WARMER DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE 850 MB AND 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE LAGGING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A LOSS OF COORDINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND REMAIN NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINANT DURING THIS PERIOD BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL ARE ALSO SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW/TROUGH PUSHING FAR ENOUGH EAST BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TO DISPLACE THE BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. 20 NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID-WEEK. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST TO THE FLINT HILLS WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY AXIS. THE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA, WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE STARTING TOMORROW. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL BE FORCED NORTHEAST FROM CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES FLORIDA.
609 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
For today, upper level low will slowly translate eastward across Tennessee today. Temperatures will remain very cool for early June with highs only topping out in the lower 70s. The upper level low will continue to slowly work into the southern Appalachians by Wednesday. Combination of the low and diurnal heating should result in some more scattered showers and storms, though these look to remain more limited to areas generally east of I-65.
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTH TO THE SEATTLE AREA. SOUTHERN OREGON REMAINS UNDER A WEAK TROF WITH VERY WEAK DISTUBANCE ROTATING THROUGH. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERN OREGON DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERTOPS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AXIS. THOUGH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHT WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY ALONG OR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SHOULD KEEP US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
328 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NE A BIT TODAY THEN SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING. SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF. AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY.
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
THE STOUT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED THROUGH TX/OK. ANY SUBTLE VARIATION IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TRACK.
249 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE WEST WEAKENS. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS RIDGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
IN LINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN OUT OF CANADA FOR WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
245 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 THE UPPER LOW IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL RIDGING THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HIGH PLAINS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE.
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS.
302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015 (Today and tonight) The axis of an upper level ridge is located from northern Mexico into far West Texas and New Mexico. West Central Texas remains in north flow aloft, with the influence of the upper level ridge forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as the upper level ridge slowly builds west. Although generally dry conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, the HRRR and to a lesser extent the Texas Tech WRF hint at the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, as the axis of the ridge remains to our west. Although confidence remains low, given abundant low level moisture and the lack of strong upper level ridging, slight chance PoPs were introduced today, mainly for the northern half of the area.
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A CLOSED LOW TRACKING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MORE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN RANGE AND BRINGS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY A BIT MORE ABUNDANT.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
MODELS STILL INITIATING A MIXING DEPTH OF NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL, AND USING THIS THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY SEVERAL DEGREES GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE.
A little more sun will result in warmer conditions today, with everyone likely getting into the 70s (warmest west, coolest east). Upper level ridge will have a tenuous hold on our weather regime. The exact positioning of the ridge will greatly determine when rain chances will creep into the area. The exact position of the upper ridge seems to be the key.
212 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO EAST TENNESSEE TODAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MORE RIDGING AND DRYING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD COMPARED TO THE GFS.
1017 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
Although the 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two therefore did not raise todays highs much.
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
Upper trof will remain over the NW sector of the CONUS with a persistent ridge from TX to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, while an upper low develops over the SE U. All of the models agree a wedge of drier air will remain parked over the area just east of the ridge axis.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST ND TO THE BLACK HILLS TO CENTRAL WY WITH A TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE EAST AND NEAR TO THE WEST. UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPILL INTO ROCKIES AND INTO LIFT INTO MT. AND PERHAPS MOVE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST/WEST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THINK THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE PLAINS MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COVERAGE. AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS.
1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AND AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
645 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS.
A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROFFING REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ARIZONA WILL STAY UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GA.
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY WARM THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough across the northern CONUS.
THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY'S SOUTHERN TIER. FINE LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA, WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN FIRM CONTROL.
THE UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM EXPANSIVE MIDDLE AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. AND ATTENDANT UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LARGE SCALE MID AND UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE HIGHEST. WHILE SLIGHTLY MORE TROUGHING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 94 DEGREES.
MUCH OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE IN A SMALL SUBSIDENT ZONE WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ANY SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM CONFINED TO SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO NORTH GA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. GETTING CAUGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
742 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
1045 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REPRESENTS SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL GENERALLY WORK AGAINST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
858 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AVIATION A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS.