Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET TONIGHT. THINK THEY SHOULD STEADY OUT AND STAY IN THE LOWER 20S. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WITH MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES CLEARING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATER TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY ONLY THE TIJUANA SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT AS WE TEMPORARILY SEE RIDGING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWFA THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM PADUCAH TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH EXTENDS INTO NORTH TEXAS. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW MORE OR LESS TRACKING OVER THE CWFA. LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW COME IN WITH A VERY SMALL CLOSING OF THE LOW RATHER THAN THE PREVIOUS OPEN TROUGH WHICH NOW LENDS TO A BIT MORE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
Although given the high pressure center will remain northeast of the forecast area most locations will not fully decouple tonight. For now low temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and upper 20s. The most uncertainty will be near and south of I-35 where lows may right around freezing. The favorable low spots may decouple enough to be cooler than the surrounding areas. Tomorrow sunny skies and a retreating high pressure will support return flow although with southeast flow temperatures will not warm much compared to today.
LIKELY A REFLECTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO DIMINISH AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT SLIGHT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN WITH COOL NW FLOW.
411 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES THAT HAVE STARTED THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH DOWN TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WENT WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. STRONG CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING.
1252 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN. IR IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS INDICATING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITHING THIS TROUGH. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AS OF 2 AM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WILL BE WATCHING THAT AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ENELY THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD WITHIN A SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN AND THIS RIDGING WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN AS A SLOW MOVING AND HIGH- AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WRN CONUS. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE 10- 25 DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 60S ACROSS THE BLKHLS.
236 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 SKIES WERE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CAUSING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE DVN CWA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOSEDIVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SHELTERED/VALLEY SPOTS IN THE LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
119 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR AN OVRNGT PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE OF A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. AND PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WAS MAINTAINED. STRONGER GUSTS WILL MIX IN MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS IN THE EVENING AND TRENDED DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT AS THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING PAIR OF TROFS.
326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SO EVEN THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN.
/ISSUED 803 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOT RANGE. THE PREVAILING BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY MIGRATES E. THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AREAS.
250 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
1212 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
1240 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 MORNING UPDATE INCLUDED LITTLE CHANGE BUT DID INTRODUCE A FREEZING WARNING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADJUSTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT THROUGH MSL BY AROUND 09Z AND HSV BY 10Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be several degrees below normal, in the low to mid 30s. Eastern counties will observe the coolest temperatures, at or just below freezing for several hours, under the ridge axis near sunrise. Return flow and south winds will help to keep temperatures above freezing tonight across western zones. Mostly sunny, dry, breezy and warmer. After a chilly start Tuesday morning the NAM and GFS models soundings indicating highs Tuesday afternoon should warm back into the low to mid 60s under a mostly sunny sky. Models this morning remain in good agreement with a warming trend mid to late week as the next upper level low exits the eastern Pacific and crosses the western United States.
137 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 The series of upper troughs continue with a weak trough moving out of the area today. the next trough Tuesday moving along the AZ/NM/Mex border.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHILE DRAGGING THE DRYLINE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES TO SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY.
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECTING A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN THICK AND HIGHER MOISTURES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONT AS IT MAKES IT WAY TO THE COASTLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THU INTO FRI. WITH COOL AIR LOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO SWING IN OVER THE SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON ON THU. THEN COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE. SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE LOW TEMPERATURE TOMORROW MORNING.
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THOSE AREAS TO THE 50S WHILE REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUN AND REACH THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS.
322 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUE WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED AS INFLUENCES OF UPPER MIDWEST/CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS TO THE MID STATE.
AS AMPLIFIED 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.
SOME WEAK WAVES ARE TOPPING THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE PRODUCING ASSOCIATED WEAK FORCING INTO THE PLAINS BUT HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY WARM ADVECTION RETURN UNTIL VERY LATE. UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA WILL EVOLVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO A BLOCKING PATTERN. SEABOARD AND A BLOCKING RIDGE IN BETWEEN.
THIS WILL BE ABOUT 25F WARMER THAN TODAY SW AND ABOUT 10C WARMER FAR E.
3 AM CDT H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S WITH STRONG SUSTAINED AND GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS THE MOIST AIRMASS DEPARTS SOUTHWARD BEGINNING BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST.
AS THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
249 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR AN OVRNGT PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. GIVEN RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALREADY. POTENTIALLY NOT WARM ENOUGH IF MODELS CONTINUE TO THE TREND OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW JUST CROSSING INTO WESTERN OHIO.
OK STORMS FORMING ALONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT.
The great threat for flash flooding looks to remain along and north of the Highway 60 corridor/MCV track. Temperatures tonight will be quite a bit cooler with even some patchy frost possible across the northwest counties.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
338 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
Skies will gradually clear from north to south this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds south and dry air moves in. With the light winds and clear skies good radiational cooling will ensure leading to a night of temperatures near or slightly below freezing (28F-32F). Into the mid week, light to moderate south winds at the surface dominate, but low level ridging from the Ohio Valley to east Texas keeps strong moisture return in check.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS MID- AMERICA OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUE WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED AS INFLUENCES OF UPPER MIDWEST/CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS TO THE MID STATE. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
337 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BUT BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.
With the core of the high north of the area, pressure gradient also to be tighter, along the Arkansas border. to the lower 60s in far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.
345 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND E/SE WIND FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.
SIDED WITH THE LOWEST END OF GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS. AND WHERE RH VALUES ARE THE LOWEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. THESE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING EXTREMELY WELL LATELY PICKING UP ON THE LOWER RH VALUES IN THESE WELL MIXED/DRY/MILD AIR MASSES. SFC WARM FRONT ALSO SETS UP OVER THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
The high pressure ridge that has given us some spectacular early spring days will lose its grip over the region Tuesday. A weak cold front will move through and produce showers and even a few th understorms ahead and along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THESE WILL BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER.
MVFR CIGS will lift to VFR from north to south behind a cold front as the afternoon progresses. Cold front advancing through northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning.
258 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WARM FRONT CLEARED THE AREA EARLIER. EVEN TOUCHING THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS OF NORTHERN VA. IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THRU DAYBREAK. LATEST MODEL SUITE SPEEDING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT UP A LITTLE. GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE WITH THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. WENT WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPING. COULD SEE TEMPS END UP COOLER IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN. MIGHT BE TOO DRY FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT AND WOULD BE FOCUSED MORE ON JUST AREAS REACHING FREEZING.
Main concern for tonight is on freezing temperatures. or at least a few hours below freezing. but lack of time below freezing precludes expanding the freeze warning.
257 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
346 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAINY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY, THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, AND LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG IT.
The high pressure ridge that has given us some spectacular early spring days will lose its grip over the region Tuesday. A weak cold front will move through and produce showers and even a few thunderstorms ahead and along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON INTO TUESDAY.
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO A SMALL SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY TO START WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
1222 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME PRETTY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE FCST AREA WL BE NEAR THE UPR RIDGE POSN WHEN THE BLOCKING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SO AFTER ONE MORE ROUND OF SCT/LGT PCPN THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR TUE NGT/EARLY WED. THOSE SHOULD BE REINFORCED DURING THE DAY AS UPR FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AS UPR TROF SHARPENS OVER THE REGION. THEN DECREASED THE CLDS AS LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CROSSES THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A WEAK AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN.
SUCH AS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AN ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
352 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) A cold front is moving slowly south across western north TX this afternoon, currently in the vicinity of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. The cold front will move south this evening, approaching I-20 by 7 PM and San Angelo around 9 PM. Moisture will slowly increase as isentropic ascent increases in the lower troposphere. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler tomorrow, ranging from the upper 60s in the Big Country to the lower 70s in the Concho Valley and northwest Hill Country. Johnson (Tuesday night through next Monday) Will likely have showers and a few thunderstorms across west central Texas Tuesday night, as the upper low moves across the southern part of the Texas Panhandle and upper trough pushes east across our area.
347 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAIN WILL EXIT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24 THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
ANTICIPATE LOWS TUE NIGHT TO BE WARMER. POSITION OF SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL SET UP A PERSISTENT SOUTH FETCH OF MOISTURE.
327 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND AS IT DOES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS THE MIDDLE AND THE END OF THE WEEK APPROACHES, THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WIND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
1237 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 Cold front moving across the area will continue moving southeast today. There are some fairly stout south- southwest winds holding up the front blowing out of the lower Mississippi Valley right now, but eventually the sheer weight of the cold air will shove the front through southern portions of the CWFA by late morning according to most guidance. A strong Canadian high will build across the Midwest tonight bringing freezing temperatures to much of the northern 1/3 of the CWFA by morning. High amplitude blocky pattern will develop by late week with a trof off the east coast, a ridge over the Ohio Valley and Midwest, and another trof over the Rockies.
109 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAIN WILL EXIT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24 THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
200 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 [Through 18z Tuesday] Cloud cover will increase through the period as an upper level trough approaches the region.
A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH LIMITED SOLAR INSOLATION WILL REDUCE ANY WARMING THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE IF THERE WERE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
/ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016/ A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE MID U. THE SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT.
342 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
110 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 Early this morning showers and thunderstorm persist along a cold front settling south into southern Missouri. However, looking at the upcoming workweek, this cool down in temperatures wont last long as a developing trough over the eastern Pacific helps nudge an upper level ridge east across the Plains States. conditions will warm up nicely as the upper level ridge slides across the center of the Nation.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH THE AREA AND ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES AND PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY EVEN GET SOME FOG IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
1244 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
215 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 A cold front nearing the Ohio river at mid afternoon will press southeast across KY/TN this evening. A 1026 mb Canadian high pressure over western Manitoba and ridging southward across the western Dakotas will settle into eastern IA by 12Z/7 am Tue, as it strengthens to 1029 mb. As high pressure settles in, breezy nw winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph this afternoon will diminish to less than 10 mph after sunset. Canadian high pressure will build into the midwest in the wake of the cold front exiting the region. by the later half of the week keeping high pressure anchored over the region.