Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ (Today and tonight) Latest analysis shows a deepening upper trough entering the Four Corners area with a weak ridge over central Texas and an upper low over the Florida Panhandle. Expect the ridge to head eastward as the upper trough continues to shift to the east, as well. With little cloud cover for most of the day, expecting a warm afternoon with highs in the lower 80s north to near 90 south.
941 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER LOW HAS CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN WYOMING. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WERE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW FROM NORTHWEST ROSEBUD COUNTY THROUGH BILLINGS TO RED LODGE. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE WILL PROVIDE MORE ASCENT TO ENHANCE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND UP INTO MONTANA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO EXTEND FARTHER UP IN TO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE SECOND REINFORCING TROUGH MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH CUT BANK. THIS LAYER IS JUST BELOW FREEZING AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SATURATED LAYER.
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A DROP IN 925 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 1-2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.
659 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Little change in the short term is expected with slightly below normal temperatures once again to be witnessed across the region as cyclonic flow around the SE US upper low maintains the northeasterly low level flow. Weak ridge to remain in place across the forecast area into midweek as SE US low advects into the Atlantic while west coast upper low digs. By midweek the 00z GFS is suggesting a scenario closer to the previous runs of the ECM in which the west coast system maintains its closed low as opposed to filling and being kicked into the Central Plains.
1108 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 A VIGOROUS TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL EJECT TONIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN TRACK RIGHT OVER OR NEAR LA CROSSE WITH A DRY SLOT PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
1251 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR VETERANS DAY.
TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING NORTH WIND IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE FOG/LOW CLOUDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING TO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THEN BEGIN TO WEAK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO PUSHING THROUGH ALL TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
418 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT TODAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. 11/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A 550 LOW CENTERED OVER SE UTAH AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED SWWD INTO SWRN ARIZONA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE REST OF TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCALES IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
330 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 Main weather feature of interest today, a rapidly intensifying area of low pressure, is currently centered over eastern Colorado.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
339 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY.
158 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR VETERANS DAY.
1132 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 STRATUS AND STRATOCU WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. REACHED AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S STATEWIDE. HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION. ALOFT NEARLY ZONAL TO A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
TODAY - SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOMETIME AROUND 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION COULD REACH THE LOW 40S BRIEFLY.
DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WED AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT INCREASE WED NIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
350 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD TO DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS STRONG AUTUMN STORM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING ELONGATED OVER THE GULF STATES.
THESE WINDS WILL MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRING AN END TO THE FOG AND STRATUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITH OVERCAST CEILING DEVELOPING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME STRONGER WINDS THAN LAST NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
Temperatures are cooling off faster tonight and will bottom out in the 30s for the central valley with the coldest spots dipping down to around the freezing mark. Temperatures around that level are only expected for 2 to 3 hours and will rise above freezing shortly around 8 am or shortly thereafter.
838 PM PST TUE NOV 10 2015 CLEAR AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA TURNS WINDS OFFSHORE.
1223 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY YIELD PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE FOG/LOW CLOUDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING TO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
338 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 ATTM TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH MAINLY LOW 40S DEWPOINTS. AS THE UPPER LOW/CDFNT EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY.
326 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 Upper trough centered over Colorado early this morning extends south across AZ/NM. This trough will quickly swing onto the plains by early afternoon and lift northeastward. Expect weak ridging to build in behind it. As the upper trough passes it will push a Pacific front across the area early today with a blustery west wind in its wake. Will be cooler behind the Pac front with highs generally in the 60s the next several days. The Pac front will also push most of the low level moisture from the region. however the low and mid levels will be dry. What does not freeze tonight will have to wait about a week before freezing temps return to the forecast.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING IS AT PIB/HBG. THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, AND LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO IOWA.
417 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR VETERANS DAY.
High pressure over the region now will shift east as a cold front approaches the area. The NAM in its last couple of runs have shown a surge of rain showers in a pre-frontal trough moving across the region Wednesday evening.
CEILINGS GRADUALLY BECOMING MVFR AGAIN AFTER 17Z AND VFR 19Z-21Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
1257 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
1246 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TRI STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR FOG SINCE THEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
1035 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z TO 17Z WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE FAIRLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING. CLOSED LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED TO OUR EAST AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY KEEP A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND IN CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE EVERYTHING SHUTS DOWN AS THE LOW TRAVERSES EASTWARD. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT BARSTOW-DAGGETT ITSELF WILL HIT THE FREEZING MARK BUT IT WILL COME CLOSE. DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
231 AM MST WED NOV 11 2015 COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE FA FOLLOW BY STRATUS/FOG AND SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. COLD FRONT STILL SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH.
Strengthening low pressure over nw KS will move northeast to the IA/NEB border by 21z/3pm. A cold front will eventually follow on the heels of the dryline tonight. But poor lapse rates in the mid levels and a relatively shallow Gulf air mass will limit the overall instability to 200-300 j/kg MLCAPE, most of which will be in the low levels. Better instability with cooler mid levels will will exist closer to the closed upper low to our north. Given the high end vertical wind fields, we still have to be cautious as convection develops this afternoon.
428 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EJECT FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 Southerly winds and comfortable temperatures were the rule today as low pressure was developing in Colorado. High pressure had moved off into the Ohio Valley and low level moisture was beginning to increase across the southern plains with 60F dewpoints in northern Texas. A strong upper level trough is currently pushing across Southern California into Arizona. Southerly winds will continue tonight and therefore will keep temperatures warmer than past nights. Current timing expectations: Storms should initiate in SE Kansas between 10am-12pm, reaching the Highway 65 corridor between 2pm- 4pm and our far eastern counties from 4pm-6pm.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. A TRAILING MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
1128 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 High pressure continues to keep mostly clear skies over central IL this evening. High pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico will continue to control the weather across central Illinois tonight. The Wabash River Valley will remain mostly clear through the entire night and will experience the lightest return flow on the back side of the high. Further west where clouds will increase sooner and southerly flow will be stronger, lows in the Illinois River Valley will remain in the lower to middle 40s.
Have therefore upgraded the High wind watch to a high wind warning in these locations. A line of thunderstorms will eventually develop along the trailing cold front, but not until the front encounters deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico father east.
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ADVANCING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AS WE REMAIN IN S/SSW FLOW ON THE WARM AND MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL SOUTHWEST TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT FOR THIS AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DRY LAYERS ALOFT THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT AGAIN WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
1234 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT TODAY.
AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS LATE WED NIGHT TO THIS FORECAST AREA. AS A COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ON VETERANS DAY. ALSO WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS 925 MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS MOVES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH IN FRONT OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THRU 12/02Z.
1209 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 928 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/ CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
319 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
1122 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS DEUEL COUNTY.
A period of deep mixing behind the dryline and prior to the cold front will allow dewpoints to fall quickly and raise fire weather concerns primarily for areas west of Highway 75. High pressure builds across the region for late week with seasonal temps and a light freeze possible for NE OK and far NW AR.
BELIEVE THAT BY SUNRISE MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA WILL BE OVERCAST WITH THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK AND FOG WILL THUS NOT BE A CONCERN. LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S AREA-WIDE DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
Its associated jet streak of 105 knots will pass directly over the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday night. The trailing cold front will sweep very rapidly east across our region Wednesday evening. This corridor becomes weaker and more narrow as the front races east across the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday evening. There is a fairly strong potential of gradient gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range during the evening, especially under the low level jet axis in southeast MO and southwest IL. Rapid clearing will occur as a pronounced dry slot rotates east under the upper low.
A potentially stronger and warmer weather system with wind, rain and high elevation snow is expected late in the week. Temperatures for the NE valleys are already within a degree or two of the freezing mark and are expected to drop a few degrees due to evaporative cooling.
420 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 CURRENTLY - A FAIRLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS YET TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON LOCAL WINDS. FORECAST - LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES TODAY AS THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO THE STILL VERY WEAK FLOW AND WARM NEARSHORE WATERS. A MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS WEEKS END.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
336 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015 (Today and Tonight) A potent upper level low is moving through Colorado early this morning, with strong southwest flow over our area. Today, this low will move northeast into the Central Plains as it also strengthens. And while this may technically be a cold front, temperatures will not respond immediately today, and highs will be in the 70s again.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH BEST CHANCE OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE PINE RIDGE.
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY MOVING OUT OF PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES STAYED COOLER AND MOISTURE VALUES HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH THE PATCHY VARIETY OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALREADY SETTING UP.
A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning, resulting in west to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots, with higher gusts at all sites.
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLD POOL OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SWUNG INTO NEW MEXICO BUT PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER ARIZONA AND HELPED FUEL INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
Temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.
ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER RIDGE RE- ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS SOUTH PARK. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY MONDAY. EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER TRACE TO 2 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING COMES TO AN END BY NOON. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS OF 15 TO 20MPH ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE LOWER VALLEY WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 FURTHER INLAND.
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER CUBA. SHORT TERM - SURFACE RIDGING OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. BUT TREND UPWARDS AS THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST STATES.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PL WITH AN UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. HIRES PROGS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WRN TROF WILL BOTTOM OUT LATER THIS MORNING OVER AZ/NM. MET/MAV VALUES ARE QUITE SIMILAR AS WELL AS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. DEE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
215 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. THE WELL ADVERTISED TROUGH AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED ELONGATED LOBE OF PV HAS BEEN FILLING INTO THE TROUGH BASE. HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGING AMPLIFIES. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER MIDTROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES COINCIDENT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MORE INTENSE SPRING INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT MORE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL UNDER STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 573-579DM YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY.
140 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER.
East northeast flow around a high pressure centered in western Ontario continues to keep an extensive area of cloud cover across much of Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska. Highs today are expected to top out in the lower 60s. The lower boundary layer remains mixed overnight and winds of 5 to 10 mph will be common with dry air advection and should keep any fog formation at bay. Lows tonight should cool into the upper 30s along the Nebraska border to the lower 40s elsewhere.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS AREA. STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET THIS EVENING DROPPING TO 6500 FEET OVERNIGHT. AND SHOULD MIX DOWN EVEN LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF S/E WYO WITH THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.