Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Take advantage of the break in the wind Monday because north winds will crank back up Tuesday across the entire region as a low pressure system dives down from the Pacific Northwest. Wind will decrease overnight as the elongated, positively tilted trough closes off over the four corners area and translates eastward into the southern plains. The active pattern will persist through the week as the next in our parade of troughs impacts the area on Tuesday.
This process within increasingly difluent flow simply translates into a thickening high cloud field Tuesday locally, with little evidence to suggest sufficient saturation will commence across the lowest 10-15k ft to support rain potential. The advent of cloud to restrict heating potential combined with a slightly backed southeast wind points to slightly cooler afternoon readings relative to today, particularly for locations immediately downstream of the cold lake waters.
319 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Weak high pressure will keep conditions dry and mild across the area today, and will bring a break in the windy conditions as well. Attention then turns to a low pressure system set to track from the Southern Plains to Kansas tonight, then to eastern Nebraska/western Iowa on Tuesday.
This storm is anchored by an upper level closed low moving southeastward from southern Utah to northeastern Arizona early this morning and is progged to be near Albuquerque at noon and Amarillo at 7 PM. As the upper low approaches the Panhandle this afternoon, a dryline will begin to push eastward into the forecast area with the dryline expected to be near the Caprock escarpment by mid-afternoon. Clearing skies and cold advection behind a Canadian cold front will drop temperatures below seasonal average. An active long wave pattern will lead to a second potent upper level low rounding the base of a deepening trough across the southwest CONUS and West Texas during the day Tuesday.
At present, cloud cover mainly consists of cirrus with lower and mid level clouds to eventually spread into the region ahead of a cold front and approaching upper level trough out over the Four Corners Region. This trough will move into the Four Corners region by Monday morning and then continue to push into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will generally range from the lower 60s across our northern zones to the lower 70s across our southern and eastern zones.
As a mid level trough along with a surface area of low pressure continues to move farther away from the region, a ridge of high pressure will build over the area as today progresses. West northwesterly flow will prevail across most of the area today, however, winds may back to more of a south southwesterly direction this afternoon across the east coast as the area of low pressure in the Atlantic continues to pull away to the northeast. The ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the region and strengthen on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be warmer due to the southerly flow and they will rise into the upper 70s along the west coast to the lower 80s across the interior and east coast metro areas.
Best POPs will be seen late tonight and before sunrise Tue morning as the main upper trough axis lifts NE over NRN AR. including low level and deep layer SHR as the trough becomes negatively tilted lifting NE over AR. the timing of this trough will be during the overnight period.
333 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north will weaken by mid-week. Chances of rain will increase after mid week as a low pressure system approaches the region. Clear skies across the area as the coastal trough moves further east. Upper level NNW flow is bringing in drier air with high pressure ridging across most of the region. Later this morning, clouds will move in from the northeast as the low strengthens and moves north. High temperatures will be dependent on how much moisture makes it into the FA along the low pressure system. An upper level ridge along the coast on Tuesday morning will move offshore as an upper low over the Central MS Valley lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes Region. Overnight lows in the low to mid 50s are expected.
343 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 A benign pattern sits over the Northern Plains early this morning, with weak quasi-zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. This may provide enough forcing for light precipitation to develop along parts the trough/deformation zone axes tonight. The presence of a theta-e ridge and near zero EPV along the deformation zone provides further support for this potential. The high temperature forecast for Tuesday could be a bit tricky as a narrow corridor of sunshine may set up from south central to northeast North Dakota.
During the afternoon, mid-level drying (in the form of intensifying upper low dry slot) is forecast to spread over western Texas into southwest Oklahoma, possibly allowing some insolation across western Oklahoma and western north Texas ahead of a dryline. As a cold front overtakes the dryline and large scale forcing increases into the evening, evolution to a more linear mode is expected. Farther north near upper low center, widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms will likely continue through the evening and overnight hours, with wrap around showers possible into Tuesday morning across northern Oklahoma.
VFR through the period as high pressure continues to dominate. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 52 65 55 69 / 0 0 20 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 48 68 53 70 / 0 0 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 47 67 53 70 / 0 0 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 41 67 50 70 / 0 0 0 30 30.
118 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 A ridge of high pressure will linger across the area through Monday night.
343 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. Several waves of low pressure will track to our west during the middle to latter portions of the week, bringing a return to more active weather.
Temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s early this afternoon and we could see an additional degree or two warming before the day is done. A cold front, extending back to the southwest from a low pressure center in Canada and extending back to the southwest to the deepening lee trough, will approach northwest Missouri tonight before stalling as the parent low lifts off to the northeast. The low will continue up into northwest Missouri then Iowa as the upper level trough pivots up out of the Southern Plains into Kansas and Nebraska.
1250 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure, located over the northeastern states, will slide slowly eastward through Monday keeping dry weather across the region.
1238 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure remains in control today into Tuesday. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight, with lots of sunshine today. Also went on the lower end of guidance dewpoints for this afternoon based on soundings showing dry air aloft mixing down to the surface and the performance of dew points over the last two afternoons.
Winds are expected to stay up enough to keep any significant fog formation from happening, and anticipate low temperatures to range from the low/mid 50s inland to the upper 50s/low 60s coast. A tightening pressure gradient tomorrow (high pressure off to the east and deepening low pressure in/around the TX Panhandle area) will bring increasing and occasionally gusty southeast winds to the area, and gradually rising moisture levels will result in an increase in cloud cover and possible shower development. Better shower/thunderstorm chances will come Monday night through early Tuesday morning as the Panhandle area low lifts out and swings a weak cold front into our area.
It will become cooler, but seasonable, late in the week. A 500-mb ridge will continue to amplify overhead in response to a positive-tilt trough moving over the southwest US. Through Monday night, the trough becomes negatively tilted as it lifts in from the Southern Plains.
There is an upper level trough over mountain west, with an upper level low passing through Southwestern states today. The upper level low will begin to track north into Nebraska later this afternoon and overnight, drawing additional upper level moisture along with it. A frontogenesis band will form over central Nebraska in the evening, potentially helpful for snow development, but overnight low temperatures at the surface are slightly above or at freezing. 850 mb temperatures also look to be hovering around freezing. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 40s, slightly cooler than today, due to cloud cover over the area and sustained northerly winds around 20 knots across the area.
Additional storms will also be possible as the cold front moves through the area late in the evening and into the overnight hours.
An upper low currently centered over the western U. The low level jet is progged to be around 30 knots this morning, which will begin to mix to the surface by mid to late morning as temps warm. The upper low and its trough axis will be moving across TX tonight and bringing a weak surface bdry and a 120kt upper jet with it. Rain chances will end from west to east as the upper trough exits to the east by early Tuesday morning.
1224 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Strong low pressure near the Florida east coast will move slowly out to sea. This will lead to diminishing winds and eventually warmer temperatures across the Carolinas by the middle of the week.
1156 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
For the coming week, a series of low pressure systems will produce unsettled weather, with the next best chance for precipitation arriving on Tuesday. Our Great Basin trough is finally on the move this evening, acting in response to upstream energy entering the Pacific Northwest. A well defined cold front stretching from just east of Flagstaff up to the Four Corners has eked out a few snow flurries this evening. As the trough moves southeast, it will briefly consolidate into an upper low over eastern Arizona Monday morning, providing the best combination of cold air aloft, frontal forcing and dynamics for a few hours over aPache county. Winds have died down tonight, although the FROPA will provide several hours of gusty northeasterlies over the higher terrain after Midnight MST> Winds switch back to westerly Monday afternoon, ahead of the next cold front.
Strong southerly winds have persisted throughout the day ahead of the front and temperatures have reached into the low to mid 60s. This strong upper low will rotate and begin to track northward across the central part of the CONUS.
However, that ridge will begin to break down tonight as a low pressure system currently spinning over New Mexico makes its way into the Missouri Valley. On Tuesday night, the better upper support with the system moving in will be northwest of the area, closer to the upper low.
352 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 During the short term forecast period, the upper-level ridge, located just east of the Quad State, is expected to slowly shift eastward to the Atlantic coast. This will place the Quad State in the transition zone between the ridge and the trough to our west. Hi-res models tend to keep the stronger convection Tuesday located in northern Missouri, closer to the low pressure center, and to our south, where more favorable instability exists. Lows will trend much warmer, from the 40s early this morning but well into the 50s tonight.
With a little more of a southerly flow, temperatures are a bit warmer this morning than yesterday morning. KY Mesonet data shows the typical ridge/valley split with temperatures this morning. The valleys were in the upper 30s to around 40 with the ridgetops running in the mid-upper 40s with a few low 50s out there. No significant weather is expected through sunrise and temperatures should bottom out in the mid-upper 30s in the valleys with lower-mid 40s on the ridges. Precipitation is expected to arrive ahead of the trough to our region sometime during the day Tuesday, though recent model runs have slowed the arrival of this trough and its associated precipitation to our region just ever so slightly.
300 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
150 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 A few clouds across the west this morning, otherwise another quiet one with temperatures noticeably warmer than the last few mornings. Look for afternoon highs to also be a few degrees warmer than yesterday even with high clouds increasing throughout the day.
Dry conditions continue over the area through Monday as an upper ridge over the region gradually moves off to the east as an upper trof advances from the southwest states into the south central states. The upper trof takes on a negative tilt Monday night while lifting northward into the central Plains and later evolves into an upper low on Tuesday while moving towards Iowa. Model soundings show that warm mid level temperatures associated with the departing upper level ridge gradually erode late Monday night into Tuesday morning, and by Tuesday afternoon will allow for some isolated embedded storms to develop over the western half of the area. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s inland to around 50 at the coast, then warmer temperatures follow for Monday night when lows range from the mid 50s inland to near 60 at the coast.
350 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Strong low pressure near the Florida east coast will move slowly out to sea. This will lead to diminishing winds and eventually warmer temperatures across the Carolinas by the middle of the week.
A slower and slightly southward track of the mid/upper trough should result in another beneficial rainfall for much of our forecast area beginning after 08-10Z tonight with widespread one inch rainfall amounts for much of the forecast area with some higher amounts in the 2 inch range possible for some locations.
The wave responsible for our early week precipitation is currently evident on WV satellite imagery across the four corners region rounding the base of the parent upper level trough. Have again bumped up snow probabilities during the overnight hours Tuesday to account for this, mainly along the terrain favored areas of the Buffalo Ridge and across south central SD.
1020 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Issued at 1022 CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 At the surface across the eastern US, a large area of high pressure centered off the northeast US coast, which stretches over the TN Valley, is gradually being forced further east and north as an area of low pressure off the NE Florida coast lifts north. Overnight, this will help slowly break down a supplemental the ridge axis extending generally from the mid atlantic and into NE AL. Winds becoming light and limited cloud cover will all temps to drop into the low/mid 40s overnight.
224 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail through the week with the main storm track remaining to the west and south of the forecast area. Today will be mostly sunny with slightly warmer than average temperatures and breezy southerly winds. A split upper trough will bring a little rain and snow to northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A low pressure system ejecting northeastward across the central plains is expected to swing some precipitation into our south central South Dakota zones with a good chance of rain over esp Tripp County on Tuesday, with a little rain or snow possible there on Tuesday night, little or no snow accumulations are expected there.
425 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.
High pressure over central North Dakota slides into the southern valley by mid-morning, resulting in mostly light winds across the area. A cooler airmass behind yesterday's FROPA will keep afternoon highs in the 40s and 50s. Low pressure tonight lifts north out of KS and eventually lifts into the upper Great Lakes. While some snow is possible, ground temperatures have been warm and with surface temps likely only a deg above freezing, any snow in the mix will likely melt on contact and bring minimal impacts tonight.
343 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Early this morning a frontal boundary remains draped across Kansas and the main trough/upper low continues to dwell over the desert southwest. The low will then move northeast of KS by late tomorrow. The upper trough/developing low remains on the slow train, thus pops continued to be slightly delayed overnight.
1119 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.
Issued at 1022 CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 At the surface across the eastern US, a large area of high pressure centered off the northeast US coast, which stretches over the TN Valley, is gradually being forced further east and north as an area of low pressure off the NE Florida coast lifts north. Overnight, this will help slowly break down a supplemental the ridge axis extending generally from the mid atlantic and into NE AL. Winds becoming light and limited cloud cover will all temps to drop into the low/mid 40s overnight.
1151 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 The center of the surface anticyclone is out over the Atlantic east of Cape Cod while a trough of low pressure is in place across Minnesota southward into the central Plains. High pressure now centered over the northeastern CONUS continues to bring benign weather conditions over the region today. Slight boost in warm thermal advection with the passage of the mid level ridge axis over the central Great Lakes. This brings temperatures at 850 mb into the 1-4C range this afternoon, which is translating to surface temperatures this afternoon that are climbing well above normal into the low to mid 60s for most locations.
An upper trough over the Plains and a lack of good mixing on Monday will keep highs in the 50s, which is still 5 to 10 degrees above average for mid to late March. Low pressure will move through the southern plains Monday night. As the period opens, the deformation zone precipitation, associated with a low pressure system heading for Iowa, is forecast to be lifting north and west into the CWA.
Some concern for fog development under the high pressure in the SW tomorrow morning, but models are not bringing in lowered visibility so removed any fog left in grids. Light rain continues working eastward this afternoon in advance of a cold frontal passage. The wind shift line early this afternoon is just east of the Red River, with the lower dew points still back in central North Dakota. Temperatures following the front will actually rebound a bit higher thanks to clearing skies; however, humidity will fall in response to the lower dew points. Clustered ensemble means are still consistent run to run in depicting a picture of an upper low south to southeast of our forecast area tracking to the northeast. High pressure will move into the west (DVL) near morning and winds will shift NE and eventually SE tomorrow.
1033 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail most of the week with the main storm track west-south of the FA. Splitting upper trough will support a few rain/snow showers Tues over the western third. Otherwise, an ejecting Plains sfc cyclone will remain SE of the FA, with a small chance to clip far Tripp county. Split flow will prevail the remainder of the week with another late week splitting upper trough clipping mainly the western FA, with precip again being mainly instability driven.
A weak low pressure is evident on satellite this morning, pushing onshore of the Volusia Coast as of around 915AM. However, warming into the low to mid-70s in southern locations, which are expected to have some clearing.
Amplification of the aforementioned upper wave and deepening of the associated surface cyclone will occur over the TX Panhandle this afternoon. The ensuing mature /vertically stacked/ cyclone will track ENE into OK tonight, lifting NNE through eastern KS, northern MO, and Iowa Tue-Tue night. assoc/w strong H85-H7 warm advection/ frontogenesis on the N-NNW periphery of the amplifying upper wave and deepening sfc cyclone. With a homogeneous saturated/above-freezing airmass in place over *and* upstream (N-NE) of the area this morning (per regional surface observations at 10Z). as the low pressure system tracks NNE from Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. as the vertically stacked cyclone lifts NNE into northern MO and Iowa.
555 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The high pressure system has drifted further east off the Atlantic coast overnight while a trough of low pressure remains over Wisconsin up through the Upper Peninsula. Moisture riding up along the front/trough will keep clouds prevalent to our west but the dry air continuing to wrap around the high into SE MI will keep skies mostly clear below 20kft today. This process within increasingly difluent flow simply translates into a thickening high cloud field Tuesday locally, with little evidence to suggest sufficient saturation will commence across the lowest 10-15k ft to support rain potential. The advent of cloud to restrict heating potential combined with a slightly backed southeast wind points to slightly cooler afternoon readings relative to today, particularly for locations immediately downstream of the cold lake waters.
722 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Tuesday.
930 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Strong low pressure near the Florida east coast will move slowly out to sea. This will lead to diminishing winds and eventually warmer temperatures across the Carolinas by the middle of the week.
and Tuesday A weak cold front was moving across Northwest Wisconsin at 09 UTC.
This low is progged to deepen while progressing east through the day resulting in gusty southerly winds this afternoon.
The next weather system moves through the area, today trough tomorrow. The associated ridge extends northward along the 140W longitude line. A series of upper level trofs slide along the front edge of this ridge and across The Treasure State.
During the short term forecast period, the upper-level ridge, located just east of the Quad State, is expected to slowly shift eastward to the Atlantic coast. This will place the Quad State in the transition zone between the ridge and the trough to our west. Hi-res models tend to keep the stronger convection Tuesday located in northern Missouri, closer to the low pressure center, and to our south, where more favorable instability exists. Lows will trend much warmer, from the 40s early this morning but well into the 50s tonight.
High pressure will slide east later this morning, and eventually south winds pick back up over this area and the basin should see a nice rebound into the lower 50s. High pressure over central North Dakota slides into the southern valley by mid-morning, resulting in mostly light winds across the area. A cooler airmass behind yesterday's FROPA will keep afternoon highs in the 40s and 50s. Low pressure tonight lifts north out of KS and eventually lifts into the upper Great Lakes. While some snow is possible, ground temperatures have been warm and with surface temps likely only a deg above freezing, any snow in the mix will likely melt on contact and bring minimal impacts tonight.
421 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Light snowfall is ongoing but decreasing across the area as the trough advances across the Rockies this morning. Precipitation will continue to diminish through the evening and there should only a slight chance of light snowfall in the high mountains overnight. Another trough will be moving across the Pacific Northwest overnight. The cooler and unsettled weather pattern will remain in place through the week, with a couple weather disturbances and additional chances of accumulating snow to deal with. Therefore, despite some dryness in the low levels, we wouldn't be surprised to see more numerous and briefly heavy showers develop in and near the Front Range Foothills overnight.
647 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the east coast early this week.