Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weakening upper high is over northern Mexico, and another disturbance aloft is moving into New Mexico around its northern periphery. With a decrease in cloud cover and increasing south winds, temperatures will be warmer on Saturday.
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
/EC/ Saturday night through Friday: Overall trend for the new week will be warmer temperatures heading into midweek, with zonal flow over the southern CONUS allowing for a ridge to develop and intensify heating over TX/northern Mexico. With westerly flow aloft and indications for the ridge to amplify late in the week, the warming effects of the ridge should be felt across our forecast area by midweek.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over western Minnesota and weak low pressure located north of Lake Huron. High pressure will build into the region and low level winds should diminish enough for decoupling across the sandy soil regions of far northern WI.
247 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure passing north of our region will bring very dry air on northeast to east winds for another 24 hours. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s, though the typical radiational cooling outliers (such as kmvn airport) will drop into the 40s.
Given this, had to lower forecast highs by several degrees this afternoon into the lower 80's over interior portions of southeastern MS and southwestern AL with middle 80's closer to the I-65 corridor. Expect temperatures to cool into the lower to middle 60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the coast. For Saturday, a much drier day is on tap as high pressure starts to have a greater influence on the area. With less cloud cover over the area, expect highs to rise into the lower 90's for most locations.
As this convection approaches the deeper moisture across the High Plains, it's expected to become more-robust and propagate eastward through the evening hours. Rain and storm chances increase through the morning tomorrow as the suite of model guidance agrees with an MCV, associated with the High Plains convection, will slowly advance through the area after sunrise.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure persists across Deep South Texas as PTC1 works toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico into this weekend.
1200 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Mostly sunny skies with seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected across central Illinois both today and Saturday.
Thunderstorm potential Saturday will be associated with a low pressure system moving across the northern US dragging a cold front across the central US. As such, there is a chance that the cold front may push far enough south and east to keep any convection out of our area, besides an isolated shower to two.
1146 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under building high pressure.
Additionally, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain late this afternoon. (Today through Saturday afternoon) A weak upper ridge is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with upper disturbances moving overhead with northwest to west upper level winds.
Current surface map shows high pressure across the Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows flat ridge over the Rockies with stalled upper low between Lake Winnipeg and Hudson Bay.
Temperatures are expected to dip into the low 50s, or even the upper 40s across hollows and other low-lying areas. The low-level high will shift eastward Saturday, opening the region up to the Gulf and increasing moisture return in the low-levels Saturday afternoon.
124 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will move through the area today, leading to an increase in shower and storm chances. Mid-level ridge is all but gone at this point with flat flow aloft taking over. Cold front moves into the area today, accompanied by an increase in deep moisture. Initially convection will be powered by diurnal heating with focus on the sea breeze and to a lesser degree the cold front and the remains of the Piedmont trough. Shear is weak and wind through the lowest 10k ft are not particularly strong, generally 15 kt or less. Cold front in the area today pushes off the coast this evening, stalling southeast of the area early Sat. Maximums will reach the low to mid 80s Saturday with lows Saturday night in the low to mid 60s.
Warmer weather is expected for Saturday with the heat index values reaching around 105 for isolated locations the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. There is still a potential tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico that is moving to the northeast.
207 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A somewhat stagnant pattern aloft remains in place over the CONUS, with a ridge over the Rockies, and general troffing over sc/se Canada.
1159 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure begins to build in from the northwest through tonight, and will settle across the local area Saturday.
Other than a band of mid clouds near the approaching weak cold front in central Iowa through southeast Wisconsin, clear skies are widespread this morning. Tonight, lows in the lower to mid 50s are on track, as the dry air allows for a good diurnal drop.
The low pressure system begins to depart the region Saturday night moving well off to the northeast. High pressure will begin to build over the region. Dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will result in muggy conditions, while overnight lows will be in the low 70s to upper 70s along the east coast.
244 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A weak front will push through the region tonight and Saturday with high pressure settling across the Great Lakes.
218 PM PDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Cooler, cloudy and unsettled weather this weekend with shower chances.
One potential concern is as the low- level jet ramps up late this evening, any surface based thunderstorms could pose an increased tornado risk for a short window before nocturnal stabilization takes effect. Temperatures remain mild Saturday night with moisture sloshing back west corresponding with the low-level jet.
745 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure begins to build in from the northwest tonight, and will settle across the local area Saturday.
831 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Showers continue to stream northward into the local area ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) One this evening, which is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm late tonight. This activity will continue through the overnight hours, with the highest coverage and heaviest showers occurring across the south. The highest gusts of 30-35 kts are possible from KMLB southward between 12z-18z.
1046 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure with seasonably cool and dry weather will control the weather through the weekend.
Soundings show good turning of winds in the low levels.
A somewhat stagnant pattern aloft remains in place over the CONUS, with a ridge over the Rockies, and general troffing over sc/se Canada. At KPIR, guidance suggests conditions will deteriorate into the lower bound of MVFR (cigs) by sunrise Saturday, and persist for a good portion of the day before improving late in the day.
As such, have revised the hourly grids to account for these trends, with only a degree or two change in forecast low temperatures for the usual cooler running valleys. Temperatures currently ranging from the low 70s to low 80s. A cold front sits draped through the Great Lakes and through the mid Mississippi Valley. In the upper levels, a trough axis extends from the Northeast back towards central Canada with ridging along the Southwest, northward through the Rockies. Saturday night lows will drop into the low to mid 50s.
720 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will settle further south and east tonight. High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic region over the weekend.
719 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region though the weekend.
Showers will increase across eastern Oregon late tonight and into western Idaho Saturday morning as a cold front moves through the area.
/issued 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure persists across Deep South Texas as PTC1 works toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico into this weekend.
The low pressure system begins to depart the region Saturday night moving well off to the northeast. High pressure will begin to build over the region. Dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will result in muggy conditions, while overnight lows will be in the low 70s to upper 70s along the east coast Hazardous marine conditions, seas of 8-10 feet and tropical storm force winds and wind gust will spread through the Gulf and then Atlantic waters.
High pressure passing north of our region will bring very dry air on northeast to east winds for another 24 hours. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s, though the typical radiational cooling outliers (such as kmvn airport) will drop into the 40s.
954 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure with seasonably cool and dry weather will control the weather through the weekend.
Dry and pleasant/seasonal weather continues across the region this afternoon into this evening, as the ridge of high pressure continues to shift into the Ozarks. For the late evening hours, warm advection on the west side of the ridge will increase over western KS, with upslope flow leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms along the front range of the Rockies for this evening. For Sat night, warm advection and low level moisture transport looks to refocus across the high plains of either NW KS or SW Neb, with convection expected to develop in this area for late Sat evening.
739 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will bring thunderstorms into early tonight. More seasonable weather is slated for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Ongoing thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this evening will continue with elevated instability after sunset. With the moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and cool air advection moving into the area, a cloudy start on Saturday seems likely with ground fog possible in areas receiving heavier rain. Temperatures will be much cooler than previous days with highs only in the low to mid 80s. A few isolated showers are possible during the afternoon due to a stationary front offshore holding its position close to the SC coast and a weak mid-level trough parked overhead. High pressure builds from the north behind the near term frontal boundary.
/issued 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022/ Thunderstorms already going up on the high terrain of New Mexico from the Sacramentos to the Sangre de Cristos. Additional development may go in the Pecos Valley just downstream from the higher terrain.
610 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through tomorrow night as high pressure builds into the state. Overnight lows will fall into the middle 50s and then rebound into the lower 80s by tomorrow afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight, bringing light winds and cooler temperatures. As the high shifts to the east tomorrow, winds will become southeasterly but remain on the lighter side. Overnight lows will drop into the middle 50s, while seasonable temperatures will remain tomorrow with highs climbing into the lower 80s. As the high pressure shifts further east of the area, the next weather system will approach the area and bring the chance of shower back to central Illinois last Sat night, but mainly in the far northwest parts of the CWA.
Another great day is on top tomorrow and while it'll be a little warmer, the dry air sticks around one more day.
Some of the higher rainfall totals are due to occasional squalls, however, most of the rainfall today has been stratiform. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is currently located in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and will continue to move northeastward towards the forecast area tonight.
738 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
1005 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure begins to build in from the northwest tonight, and will settle across the local area Saturday.
1010 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A weak front will push through the region tonight and Saturday with high pressure settling across the Great Lakes.
Today and Saturday A trough crossing Nevada will continue to cause isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in Elko and White Pine counties through this evening. A cold front will cross northern Nevada tomorrow bringing the chance for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.
738 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A weak front will push through the region tonight and Saturday with high pressure settling across the Great Lakes.
High pressure at the surface will continue to settle over the region tonight. This will result in a quiet night, with slightly cooler conditions compared to the past few nights. With mostly clear skies expected and possibly some patchy ground fog developing around day break Saturday, particularly across the Pine Belt, lows will fall into the low and middle 60s. /EC/ Saturday night through Friday: Overall trend for the new week will be warmer temperatures heading into midweek, with zonal flow over the southern CONUS allowing for a ridge to develop and intensify heating over TX/northern Mexico. With westerly flow aloft and indications for the ridge to amplify late in the week, the warming effects of the ridge should be felt across our forecast area by midweek.
639 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure is centered over Missouri and Arkansas.
655 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure with seasonably cool and dry weather will control the weather through the weekend.
(Rest of tonight) Drier and cooler air continues to filter into the area in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will continue to build over the OH River overnight, and dry conditions will remain in place.
1012 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will bring thunderstorms tonight. More seasonable weather is slated for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Ongoing thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this evening will continue with elevated instability. With the moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and cool air advection moving into the area, a cloudy start on Saturday seems likely with ground fog possible in areas receiving heavier rain. Temperatures will be much cooler than previous days with highs only in the low to mid 80s. A few isolated showers are possible during the afternoon due to a stationary front offshore holding its position close to the SC coast and a weak mid-level trough parked overhead. High pressure builds from the north behind the near term frontal boundary.
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will settle further south and east reaching the coast tonight. High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic region over the weekend.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 87 65 88 / 0 0 20 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 60 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 56 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 20.
402 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure has built in with sunny skies expected today along with dry conditions.
1133 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Another upper level short wave trough is expected to move across the Panhandles late this afternoon and this evening. The trough/dryline, upper level disturbance, and the possibility of a leftover outflow boundary may all provide enough lift to get some thunderstorms going. Sunday looks dry for now across the Panhandles as the next short wave trough move north of the area.
248 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Synoptic Setup: A closed low of modified Arctic air currently lies over central Manitoba. A ridge anchored over the Desert Southwest runs north through western Montana and the Front Range of Alberta and British Columbia. To the West, another closed low lies over the coast of British Columbia. The ridge is currently pinched around northwestern Montana providing a weak point for disturbances to break off of the BC low and run along the International Border into northeast Montana where they can provide brief shots at lift and rain. In addition the low over northern Manitoba has a significant influence from it's airmass reaching southwest all the way over the high plains of Montana at times.
413 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure will result in dry and seasonable conditions through the weekend.
Dewpoints will be in the 'comfortable' level (upper 40s to low/mid 50s) and afternoon temps will be a couple of degrees warmer today compared to yesterday. Upper level ridging will tend to strengthen and expand across the southern United States and Mexico.
1205 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 (Rest of tonight) Drier and cooler air continues to filter into the area in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will continue to build over the OH River overnight, and dry conditions will remain in place.
Outside of showers and thunderstorms today, temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs in the low 90s areawide.
A somewhat stagnant pattern aloft remains in place over the CONUS, with a ridge over the Rockies, and general troffing over sc/se Canada.
322 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region though the weekend.
Three hour accumulations from MRMS and KBYX dual pol depict one inch of rain has fallen into the Lower Keys. At 11 pm, Potential Tropical Cyclone one one was at 24. For more information concerning Potential Tropical Cyclone one please see Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) and Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings (TCV). Squally conditions will continue through the evening as Potential Tropical Cyclone One approaches the Florida Keys island chain and both island terminals.
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s, and even into the low 80s for some areas have been observed so far across the CWA. With mostly clear skies expected tonight, radiational cooling will allow for another chilly night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s possible. Even so, some areas may remain dry, as current NBM probabilities show the higher chances of rain occurring in the western portion of the CWA, mainly along and west of I-65.
Easterly winds flowing out of the nearby ridge as high as 5-10 mph this morning. are actually expected to diminish this afternoon as the ridge slides eastward, dropping the already modest surface pressure gradient.
Remnant MCV within slow moving mid level trough axis will reside across the region through the day and support a chance of afternoon storm development, however with time the focus will be on renewed convection across the High Plains and its evolution into tonight.
139 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 A weak cold front will move across the area this evening into today with high pressure building in tonight through Saturday night.
342 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
238 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Northwest flow aloft continues today with high pressure at the surface gradually shifting eastward. This will gradually allow a southerly wind to develop with temperatures warming a degree or two warmer than they were yesterday. Thunderstorm activity today should be confined to areas far to the west where better moisture return exists just east of the dryline in western Kansas as well as along a warm front developing across Nebraska into Iowa. There's an outside chance of a shower developing in the northwest part of our area overnight tonight, but otherwise it should be another quiet night with lows a bit warmer than this morning due to a bit better moisture and low level wind flow. We'll see a bit more cloud cover with highs in the low to mid 80s.
315 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure has built in with sunny skies expected today along with dry conditions.
While the upper level jet is projected to take on a west to east orientation, the low level jet takes on a more traditional position, facing south to north and pulling in the necessary warmth and moisture to fuel rain chances by Sunday evening/overnight.
333 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 An upper-level low north of the Minnesota/Canada border and a low- amplitude upper-level ridge across the Rockies will be present through the short term period, and this will result in an unsettled pattern with near to below normal temperatures. Nonetheless, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s.
A weak cold front has pushed through Central Alabama. The drier and cooler air mass has reached areas north of of I-20 where temperatures have fallen into the upper 50s. The tropical system over the northeast Gulf of Mexico has caused the upper trof axis over south Alabama to stall out. The combination of diurnal heating and the presence of the trof axis will likely trigger a few showers and thunderstorms across the far southeast counties this afternoon. Much warmer afternoon temperatures today and Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
142 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure with seasonably cool and dry weather will control the weather through the weekend.
246 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region though the weekend.
142 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure and dry weather persists through Sunday. Additionally, bumped up low temperatures for the hill and ridgetops by a degree or two. A high pressure system will provide dry weather tonight and Saturday.
This may also allow temperatures to get a little cooler than previously thought north. Temperatures have been trending warmer throughout the day, and should peak at seasonable highs in the low 80s and far upper 70s this afternoon. Both the clearing skies and the calming winds are conducive for a cool, crisp night, and temperatures will dip down into the lower and mid 50s. Temperatures should approach the lower to middle 80s across the CWA tomorrow afternoon, but dewpoint depressions are likely to be near 40 degrees. Tempertures will be slightly warmer than the previous night because of a slight increase in subsidence and the southerly component of the wind, with lows forecast in the mid to upper 50s.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE UPPER As expected, showers and isolated thunderstorms from Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC ONE) convection, which was over Cuba and the Straits of Florida last night, affected most of the Keys this morning and produced moderate to heavy rainfall. Potential Tropical Cyclone remains disorganized with multiple centers and dry air entrainment as shown by the GOES-16 lower, middle, and upper water vapor imagery. 35 exhibits a moist plume of showers just south of Cuba that will lift northeast with the broad trough today. At this time, the dry air advecting into the Lower Keys will give the area a brief reprieve to the moderate to heavy rainfall for few hours.
Looking at the big picture, a trough remains entrenched over central Canada with another deep cyclone inching toward Vancouver. This ridge is superimposed on generally quasi-zonal flow aloft over the western half of the CONUS, tipping more northwesterly over the Southeast. A few noteworthy perturbations in the flow are noted over the Great Basin and Great Plains with more troughiness found in the vicinity of FL. Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is approaching the FL Keys this morning and will continue a general northeasterly track, posing no threat our region.
Seasonably normal condns can be expected at most locations through the weekend w/ highs topping out in the low to mid 80s Sat and Sun, along w/ a few cooler mornings, e. Overall, quasi-zonal H500 flow w/ a low- amplitude ridge over the CONUS wl emerge as the dominant flow pattern b/w two larger, nearly cutoff lows over the Pac-N/W, and Upper Great Lakes.
At this time, it looks like the best chance of rain for today will be south of Interstate 90 corridor where the low level moisture is the best. As a result, shifted the higher rain chances south in the latest forecast.