Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
408 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A stationary front to our south will gradually work north into central Indiana today as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. This may bring a few showers to locations south of the highway 24 corridor today into this evening. Look for warmer temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday with partly to mostly sunny skies. sfc analysis early this morning shows low pressure over southwest MO with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast through southern Illinois and Indiana. This low is expected to ride northeast along boundary today driven by a convectively enhanced short wave. Weak area of high pressure to move in Tuesday with dry conditions into Tuesday evening.
434 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016 Weak upper level ridging will continue over Colorado today with light westerly flow aloft. Surface pressure gradients across the state are expected to remain weak with a little bit of lee troughing evident over the northeast plains. Ahead of the afternoon shower activity, high temperatures across the plains should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the lower and mid 90s.
An upper level low over cuba will continue to move to the west northwest today and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, as an ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic waters strengthens and builds into Central Florida.
Water vapor imagery shows a fairly well defined short wave trough over southern MO moving eastward with significant convection in advance of this feature over southern IL. Still would expect southern CWA to be most prone to low cloudiness to start the day Monday and have kept temps a category or so cooler south than northern CWA where more sunshine is expected. Izzi 211 PM CDT Height rises are expected heading into the upcoming work week as broad upper ridging develops over much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Looking at the model soundings for today the convective temperatures are in the low 90s which we should surpass the convective temperature in many spots. 13/MH Looking at the rest of the forecast expect high pressure to be in place through the weekend over the Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, bermuda ridge extension pattern to prevail for much of this forecast period with fluctuations in fringe gradient to have periods of 5-10kt interspersed with 10-15kt at times.
Enhanced Gulf moisture advection into the state today will mean a humid start to the day with the majority of the state seeing temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dew point depressions of 5 degrees or less.
414 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 High pressure builds today. A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday and stall.
We will have a very soupy airmass in place over the entire area, as the warm front/outflow boundary is expected to lift back north of the region this afternoon. There should be some lift with the mid/upper-level trough expected to move through the region, but it is a bit messy, and there could be some subsidence behind this morning's impulse.
Weakening cold front defined by a line of mid-level cloud cover on infrared satellite imagery from the St. The Adirondacks and eastern VT will see the coolest lows, but towns in southern VT should also see cooler compared to their northern counterparts given the differences in sky cover and winds.
Upper low moving into BC with a dry westerly flow aloft across the region. Temps will be cooler tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. The upper low continues to slowly move through BC Monday with a west to northwest flow over the region. The airmass aloft is cooling a bit as heights fall and expect high temps to be a few degrees cooler than today.
A trough will remain over the west coast and will keep moderate flow through the delta and a deeper marine layer along the coast.
The best upper level support for convection will be over the mid- Atlantic states and thus warm sector diurnal convection forming on a lee side trough will be what we are looking at for the afternoon and evening hours across the area. Shear will be best across the NW but this is not aligned with the best instability which will be better east of the trough over the I-95 corridor. CAM models support the theory of widely scattered showers and storms with a focus along a trough. Upper level high will remain anchored over FL through the period, with a low amplitude ridge/trough pattern over the mid-Atlantic region. It appears as though the piedmont trough will be persistent over Central NC well into the weekend.
Rain chances look slim to none for much of the area until the end of the week and on into the weekend when a possible weakness develops in the upper level ridge.
Solar combined with thermal ridge axis nosing into the FA should lift temperatures well into the 80s with some low 90s possible.
Expect highs in the low 90s north to mid/upper 90s south. -Vincent Upper level high will remain anchored over FL through the period, with a low amplitude ridge/trough pattern over the mid-Atlantic region. It appears as though the piedmont trough will be persistent over Central NC well into the weekend.
342 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region today and Tuesday. Shower chances overnight will be confined to the extreme southern extent of my CWA, with the highest pops along my southern border. The main trough axis will be just east of the area shortly after dawn on Tuesday.
Now again given the high freezing levels at around 14 kft, PWAT near or eclipsing the 2 inch range, and repeated rounds of convection seen in the CAM data the flash flooding potential continues to be a concern.
346 AM PDT MON JUL 4 2016 A weak upper level trough across the West Coast will bring near to slightly below normal temperatures to most of the region through the weekend.
The low level flow will be weaker along with a little less moisture, but with afternoon heating a strong storm or two will be possible Tuesday afternoon.
126 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A stationary front to our south will gradually work north into southern Indiana on Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. This may bring a few showers to locations south of the highway 24 corridor Monday. The upper air flow should become west/southwest aloft later this week and allow short wave energy to move across the area as a longwave trof amplifies along the west CONUS.
636 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Waves of low pressure with convection. The initial vort max and convective induce low pressure will head into SE OH with an uptick in intensity possible around 12z across C WV. This will allow the warm front to gradually lift thru. expecting a bit of a lull later this morning into the afternoon hours as attention turns W over KY for convective development in the warm sector with the approach of the S/W trof. The trof axis pulls E of the area toward Tue morning. There unfortunately still exists uncertainty on placement of the higher qpf given the persistent focus by the models on the synoptic versus mesoscale features.
346 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Strong upper ridge centered just to the northeast of the northwest Bahamas will continue to build westward into the region, with increasing upper heights and warm temperatures aloft. A weak impulse south of the region is forecast to lift northward around the ridge, which will bring sligtly higher 700-500mb moisture. The highest rainfall chances are forecast across the extreme southeastern portions of the region at around 40%. It will be hot for Independence Day today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the 102-107F range. Warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s with heat indices in the low 90s are forecast to continue up until near 10pm.
The upper flow pattern consists of an upper trough currently located over the Canadian Rockies of British Columbia and Alberta and high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The stationary boundary, between the hot air-mass to the south and the cooler air-mass to the north, will be south of the local area. Today the descending trough sends a cold front east across our area for slightly cooler temperature, close to seasonal norms. Most of the trough energy remains north in Canada, so again with relatively stable conditions, expect a mostly dry day.
This trough will basically stall out this evening and remain in western SD.
/issued 244 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ It is very hot today and will only get hotter tomorrow as an upper level ridge sits firmly over the area. Temps may be a few degrees cooler Tuesday as 850mb winds back to a more south-southeasterly direction eliminating the downslope component though it will still be very hot.
Thunderstorm activity should be at a minimum during the day over the CWA as weak subsidence and drying of the boundary layer occur in the wake of tonight's trough passage.
/issued 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Hot and dry conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through the forecast period as mid level ridging continues overhead. High temperatures will range from the low 90s at the beaches to a handful several degrees above the century mark across the west Monday afternoon.
Shallow mid-level troughing over OK/N TX should maintain mainly southerly winds and keep the BL moist to support overnight MVFR cigs. Wind speeds Monday could be a few mph slower than from today as upper ridging over TX strengthens and expands. Upper air analysis this morning showed zonal to slightly anticyclonic flow across the southern part of the country at 250mb with a weak trough at 500mb over north Texas. The mid-level trough will move away and the ridge will become dominant.
134 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will move east along the warm front over the Ohio valley late Monday. The warm front will drift north through mid week. The low level jet is progged to increase over the Ohio Valley tonight but that should focus any new development of thunderstorms mainly over the Ohio Valley. With mostly high clouds, relatively light winds, and low dew points, dropped the low temperature forecast a couple of degrees in most areas. A warm front will continue to move northward on Monday as low pressure enters the western Ohio valley. High pressure will briefly build over the region on Tuesday. Another warm front will become a factor for the middle part of the week.
and a weakening low amplitude upper trough will be approaching today and moving in tonight. Tonight expect an area of showers and thunderstorms to move through as the upper trough advances.
Meanwhile, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Oklahoma and perhaps across far southeastern Kansas along and north of a warm front. The upper level ridge then starts to build back in on Tuesday.
As expected, the low temperature on July 3rd only dropped to 84 degrees at the Key West airport which tied a warm minimum for the date. Furthermore, there is a good chance that the low temperature will only be 85 degrees for today, July 4th which would break the all time warm minimum. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge has lifted northward and across Central Florida, resulting in east to southeast winds ranging from 10 knots to 16 knots at Sand Key Light.
A series of weak cold fronts are expected to produce breezy weather through Monday.
Breezy with cooler temperatures today (4 to 8 degrees lower) behind a weak cold front that moved through the region overnight. Tuesday, a deepening upper level trough will send another weak cold front through the region, bringing temperatures down another 2 to 5 degrees. Winds will be breezy once more and the region will see increasing clouds in the afternoon in association with the cold frontal passage.
616 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A stationary front to our south will gradually work north into central Indiana today as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. This may bring a few showers to locations south of the highway 24 corridor today into this evening. Look for warmer temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday with partly to mostly sunny skies. sfc analysis early this morning shows low pressure over southwest MO with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast through southern Illinois and Indiana. This low is expected to ride northeast along boundary today driven by a convectively enhanced short wave. Weak area of high pressure to move in Tuesday with dry conditions into Tuesday evening.
352 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Flat upper ridging will continue across the Southeast today. A frontal boundary near the NC/SC border this morning is forecast to lift further north during the day while weak lee side troughing continues over the forecast area. Flat ridging aloft will remain across the region, while the center of the upper ridge remains off the southeastern coast tonight into tuesday.
Dry across the region Tuesday on through the weekend along with slightly cooler temperatures and slightly higher winds. A broad trough begins to slide down from the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday which will bring with it slightly cooler air. generally a few degrees cooler than the highs will be today. Slightly higher wind speeds during the afternoon hours on Tuesday as moderate jet energy associated with the trough energy moves in over the northern and central Nevada.
250 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016 ne pac upper trough continues to support periodic impulse into the region. Strongest ll forcing looks to be across ne WY into nw SD where the highest pops were added. Thermal ridge will pass over the region today with 90s expected most places outside of the BH. Weak cool front will settle across the area Tues, supporting slightly cooler readings across the nw half.
Tonight Through Monday A closed upper low pressure center aloft over north central British Columbia has a rather strong upper level jet associated with it extending across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies with zonal west flow across western and central Wyoming.
156 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Waves of low pressure with rounds of convection this Independence Day and Monday night. A warm front will push northward this evening providing some light showers for southeast Ohio and northern WV.
411 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region today and Tuesday. The main trough axis will be just east of the area shortly after dawn on Tuesday.
441 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A warm front will lift north across the region today. Low pressure will track across the area tonight. High pressure will build in Tuesday. Warm front stretching across Kentucky early this morning is forecast to lift north through the area this morning. A weak cold front will move east of the area early Tuesday. High pressure will briefly build in during the day and then move off to the east Tuesday night.
Upper level trough over Oklahoma and Texas will translate eastward, which will push the frontal boundary into Arkansas later this morning. By late Tuesday, ridging will build back in, with any lingering precipitation chances diminishing.
145 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region today and Tuesday. Shower chances overnight will be confined to the extreme southern extent of my CWA, with the highest pops along my southern border. The main trough axis will be just east of the area shortly after dawn on Tuesday.
310 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A weak, upper level area of low pressure will bring clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms to parts of northeast Pennsylvania and the southern border of New York tonight. Drier air will filter in behind the low Tuesday, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The pattern will consist of a very large ridge which encompass much of the southern CONUS, with zonal flow dominating over the northeast and most of the northern CONUS. Temps will be warm and slightly above the seasonal norm as we will be just along the outer edge of the ridge.
1122 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Currently across the Tri-State area there is an upper level trough beginning to move east out of the region. As the trough continues to move east through the area clouds will begin to decrease. A ridge will move over the CWA Monday in the wake of the exiting trough. This will bring with it warmer temperatures in the 90s. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the west.
A few hours of mostly clear skies could allow low temperatures to fall into the lower 70s most locations after midnight, then remaining steady for the overnight.
Weak trough located north of the area will continue to move east today with ridge building across South Texas.
643 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Northern periphery of stratus deck will edge northward into area and affect mainly I-94 terminals today with lower VFR cigs and perhaps a period of MVFR cigs late afternoon/early evening as low pressure passes to the south. Weak inverted trough extending north from this low will pass late in the forecast and provide additional focus for similar ceilings and patchy fog as well.
Westerly flow across the southwest will bring drier and warmer conditions through the week with only a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains. Slight chances look to be mostly confined to the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated. Only a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms exists over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona today.
320 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure sliding across Manitoba will push a trough west to east across SD and into far western MN today, bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. An additional area of low pressure organizing along the trough, over the western half of SD tonight will bring about a better chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday. Highs will again top out in the 90s southwest of a line from Mobridge to Watertown on Tuesday. The 12Z ECMWF, with the low tracking farther to the south, had 850MB temps of only around 17C across the entire area. Will keep the higher pops north and northeast, which has been consistent over the past couple of days.
As has been highlighted the past few days, the main weather impact for 4th of July festivities will be the high heat index values across the region. A few thunderstorms are shifting across the DFW to Waco area this morning associated with a weak trough traversing north Texas. yesterday and allow for surface readings to be 1-2F warmer. Further drying of the ground and mixing of warm and moist south winds aloft will further promote heating into the mid to upper 90s most locations and even the low to mid 100s central and west. Temperatures will be at or maybe slightly less Tuesday with slightly lower H925/H850 temperatures as the weak trough passes to the east of Texas. All rain activity will remain north or west of south-central Texas with the ridge in place.
621 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Update An area of low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley today and tonight. High pressure ridges in for Tuesday ahead of a cold front dropping out of the Northern Plains.
Regarding the rest of this week, the weather pattern will be dominated by a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the Bahamas westward to northern Mexico.
A lgt swly flow will then develop late this afternoon and tnt in response to low pressure tracking ewd across the U.
An upper low will be over western Canada to start the period with west southwest flow aloft. A better chance for thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday night as a more significant area of low pressure and frontal boundary impact the area.
654 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 High pressure builds today. A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday and stall.
This will occur as a low pressure system moves from the Mid Ms Valley, eastward across the Ohio Valley.
124 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Another quiet early July evening across the Northwoods with strong high pressure and dry air remaining overhead. High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to lead to precipitation free and very warm conditions for Independence Day. Slowly increasing moisture Tuesday as a short wave to our north flattens out the ridge and allows higher dewpoints to move in from the west.
Northeast WI remained under the western periphery of a large high pressure system early this morning, with mostly clear skies and comfortable temperatures in the 50s. On Tuesday, a much warmer and more humid air mass will spread into the region, with highs soaring into the middle to upper 80s, and dew points rising into the middle to upper 60s. This will cause CAPE to increase to 1500-2000 j/kg in north central WI, as a cold front sags into the region.
332 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Waves of low pressure with convection. The initial vort max and convective induce low pressure will head into SE OH with an uptick in intensity possible around 12z across C WV. This will allow the warm front to gradually lift thru. expecting a bit of a lull later this morning into the afternoon hours as attention turns W over KY for convective development in the warm sector with the approach of the S/W trof. The trof axis pulls E of the area toward Tue morning. There unfortunately still exists uncertainty on placement of the higher qpf given the persistent focus by the models on the synoptic versus mesoscale features.
Models are consistent in finally moving the low level moisture and clouds to the east tonight.
642 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A weak, upper level area of low pressure will bring clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms to parts of northeast Pennsylvania and the southern border of New York tonight. Drier air will filter in behind the low Tuesday, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The pattern will consist of a very large ridge which encompass much of the southern CONUS, with zonal flow dominating over the northeast and most of the northern CONUS. Temps will be warm and slightly above the seasonal norm as we will be just along the outer edge of the ridge.
641 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Flat upper ridging will continue across the Southeast today. A frontal boundary near the NC/SC border this morning is forecast to lift further north during the day while weak lee side troughing continues over the forecast area. Flat ridging aloft will remain across the region, while the center of the upper ridge remains off the southeastern coast tonight into tuesday.
Westerly mixing winds coupled with moderate waa will result in temperatures from the low 80s to low 90s. Warmer along the thermal ridge into south central ND where we could see 95F or higher. Stayed more conservative with my peak highs south central in the low 90s for now. Upper low over the southwestern Canada remains quasi-stationary through Tuesday night, then ejects east towards and into the Northern Plains Wed-Thurs.
This will cause the upper ridge to weaken over the area and allow for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
1152 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 A surface warm front extends from northeast Nebraska to northeast Missouri early this morning and is moving very slowly to tbe east. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed near and east of this warm front from the WAA aloft. The situation with the warm front will likely persist to some degree thru mid-morning, maintaining the threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of northeast MO and west-central IL. For much of today, should see decent sunshine for most areas with a weak southeast to south flow developing as the surface warm front moves thru. This feature will drive a cold front thru the region Wed/Wed night. Guidance suggests significant troughs dvlpng along the Coasts with a high amplitude ridge aligned along the Rockies over the wknd which puts the.