Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
426 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Periodic rain chances are expected through Saturday with low pressure passage. An upper low should continue its NEWD drift across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region tonight. Abundant cloud cover will limit instability while jet dynamics wane through the day as the northward lifting upper low weakens. High pressure to the east and upper ridging overhead will quickly develop behind the exiting trough Saturday night.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to redevelop just behind the surface cold front currently extending from far northwestern MN into south central ND. There is some indication that much of the instability will be elevated, but given that all sorts of weird things happen with the upper low over the area, will keep mention of all severe types going in our messaging.
Cyclogenesis is ongoing and will result in a deepening low pressure system over the next 24 hours across the Northern Plains. Broad large scale-ascent with approaching trough and associated frontogenesis will provide the necessary lift for widespread precipitation across portions of western Montana, North Dakota, and the northern portions of our forecast area late tonight through Saturday. Winds will pick up Saturday morning as the low deepens; expect NW winds gusting to 30-40 mph across NE WY and the SD plains tomorrow afternoon and evening.
208 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Quiet weather this afternoon as H5 ridging has begun to build over the area. Tonight, H5 heights will increase in earnest as the ridge sets up shop over the Ohio Valley. However, this increase in heights will act as a pseudo warm front, and models are depicting rather stout isentropic upglide on the 310K surface (around 650 mb). Can't rule out a few sprinkles in the predawn hours as well, but time- height cross sections are rather dry in the lowest 3 km. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 60s.
Warmer tonight with continued southeasterly winds with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
Further to our west, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the region as drier air aloft is advected in from the northwest. With the absence of any cooler air behind this trough, and the building ridge moving in from the west, high temperatures will remain warm and in the mid 80s.
However, ambient "spin" provided by the upper-level low pressure system now centered directly over Chicago is still providing the means to develop a few harmless funnel clouds, most recently near Mendota. Saturday will be noticeably warmer with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and breezy south to southeast winds.
A gradual clearing of cloud cover is anticipated late this morning and afternoon across most areas except the high terrain of Eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. While CHA, TYS, TRI have the chance of seeing fog, TYS and TRI have the highest confidence for LIFR conditions closer to sunrise. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 81 63 82 63 / 10 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 79 59 81 60 / 10 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 79 60 81 60 / 10 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 77 55 79 55 / 30 20 10 10 0.
227 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Unsettled conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 An upper closed low, on the southwest side of Lake Michigan, will continue moving to the northeast. This will lift moisture away from southern Indiana and central Kentucky and bring drier conditions in the coming days as upper ridging advances from the southwest. Mid and upper level ridging will work into the Ohio Valley this weekend as the recent upper level trough departs off to the northeast. This upper ridging, combined with deep southwest flow will allow for our temperatures to remain above normal for this time of year. High temps on Sun are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s, a near 7-10 degrees or so above climate.
Given the pronounced low level thermal ridge to our west, the airmass over the forecast area is expected remain on the warm side.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): The 500 mb ridging now centered over NW Mexico will start shifting eastwards as a pretty significant trough digs into the West Coast. Although the low level moisture will start increasing this weekend across the RGV, the moisture return will not likely be enough to justify enough conv pops.
The short term forecast is still relatively quiet with ridging and high pressure overhead. This will hinder fog development overnight and keep overnight lows slightly warmer and near 70. Some coastal streamer showers are possible during the late overnight hours, especially west of I-45 as onshore flow increases low level moisture levels and undercuts the retreating high pressure.
The aviation conditions are about as good as possible across the RGV as 500 mb ridging and very low CAPE/PWAT values maintain the VFR conditions across the RGV this afternoon. /issued 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): High pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas into the weekend, as a 500mb trough digs into the Rockies and another works through the Great Lakes. Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s Friday and mid to upper 90s on Saturday.
Upper level ridging will be building in from the west overnight giving way to a warm and dry weekend.
An amplifying ridge over the region during this period will result in fair weather with temperatures that will average WELL above normal.
142 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Periodic rain chances are expected through Saturday with low pressure passage. Abundant cloud cover will limit instability while jet dynamics wane through the day as the northward lifting upper low weakens. High pressure to the east and upper ridging overhead will quickly develop behind the exiting trough Saturday night.
Temperatures warmed for Saturday slightly as cloud coverage from the previous night will likely lead to a warmer start for the day.
106 PM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A low pressure system that brought rain this morning will continue to move out this afternoon and evening.
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A weak warm front has developed across portions of the forecast area as of 18z, extending from west central Missouri southeastward into southeast Missouri. Otherwise, it will be a rather mild night with lows in the low to mid 60s. On Saturday, the warm front will lift north of the forecast area with strong WAA south of the front as 850mb temperatures rise to between 18 and 22C by the afternoon.
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 (Today and tonight) A mid/upper level ridge will strengthen over the area today, resulting in hot and dry weather, with above normal temperatures. Temperatures will range from the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the mid and upper 90s across the Big Country.
The axis of the upper trough over the region will move further to the east of our area. An upper ridge will continue to build over the southern/central Great Plains into early this evening, and then shift eastward toward the Mississippi River overnight through Saturday afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s inland, with upper 60s at the coast.
1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The remnants of an upper low over the midwest will track northeast across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight into Saturday night.
A ridge will continue to shift across the Midsouth over the weekend keeping us warm and dry.
1034 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 At the upper levels, models show the upper trough situated over the west coast, and SW flow aloft our region.
Smokey skies persist across the majority of the forecast area through the day today, although conditions should improve as a strong upper level low moves into the Dakotas tonight through Saturday.
Trough axis aloft near the Al-Ga border will move east tonight while a weak surface wave over se Ga moves offshore. Highs on Saturday will be in the low/mid 80s.
Main features to focus on will be the cold front passage Saturday and dynamic system toward mid-week. Upper level ridge axis shifts east and upper flow becomes southwest heading into tonight and Saturday morning, ahead of an amplifying trough over the Great Basin. The deep western trough becomes more positively tilted and shifts east on Saturday begins splitting into two main pieces of energy. The cold front will move through our CWA Saturday afternoon/evening, giving us one more very warm day on Saturday before cooler air is introduced behind the front. Highs could be a tad tricky as we may have to weigh between thick cirrus and compressional warming just ahead of the cold front. Even so, the air behind the cold front is hardly frigid, and we can expect near normal highs of around 70, give or take.
High pressure in control of our weather will equal dry days. With a drier airmass in place as noted by the dewpoints in the lower 60s, conditions will cool off quicker in the evenings. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s tonight under mostly clear skies. Given the pronounced low level thermal ridge to our west, the airmass over the forecast area is expected remain on the warm side.
Lows tonight falling into the lower 70s area- wide. (modified previous discussion) The aforementioned weak frontal boundary will work its way down the peninsula Saturday as a highly amplified mid-upper level trough digs down the Atlantic seaboard, with the mid level trough axis just off or along the east central Florida coast. 0 inches (90th percentile of PWAT values for early October), and ample lift from the frontal boundary and trough will result in rain chances up to 70 percent ahead of the front, and 40 to 50 percent behind as drier air settles in.
624 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Once again, another quiet evening across the region as high pressure maintains control.
810 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The closed low that had been positioned across the Lower Mississippi Valley region -- our nemesis this week -- has re- opened as it has lifted northward towards the Great Lakes region, and being absorbed by a broad upper trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. The axis of this trough is currently positioned across east Georgia. Dry air at the upper levels is building into the area on the back side of the trough, reducing the precipitable water values to the 1-1. The influence of the ridge will keep the sensible weather benign, aside from perhaps some isolated thunderstorms in far east Georgia Saturday.
640 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A weak warm front has developed across portions of the forecast area as of 18z, extending from west central Missouri southeastward into southeast Missouri. Otherwise, it will be a rather mild night with lows in the low to mid 60s. On Saturday, the warm front will lift north of the forecast area with strong WAA south of the front as 850mb temperatures rise to between 18 and 22C by the afternoon.
Tonight and Saturday Upper trough lifting slowly northeast across the area was producing scattered showers and isolate thunderstorms late this afternoon. Saturday could be quite warm for this time of year, with highs in the low to mid 70s in most places.
A Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions tonight and Saturday.
947 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A weak warm front has developed across portions of the forecast area as of 18z, extending from west central Missouri southeastward into southeast Missouri. Otherwise, it will be a rather mild night with lows in the low to mid 60s. On Saturday, the warm front will lift north of the forecast area with strong WAA south of the front as 850mb temperatures rise to between 18 and 22C by the afternoon.
633 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 High pressure over SE TX will move east overnight through Saturday. The short term forecast is still relatively quiet with ridging and high pressure overhead. This will hinder fog development overnight and keep overnight lows slightly warmer and near 70. Some coastal streamer showers are possible during the late overnight hours, especially west of I-45 as onshore flow increases low level moisture levels and undercuts the retreating high pressure.
923 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Unsettled conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
711 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Periodic rain chances are expected through Saturday with low pressure passage. An upper low should continue its NEWD drift across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region tonight. Abundant cloud cover will limit instability while jet dynamics wane through the day as the northward lifting upper low weakens. High pressure to the east and upper ridging overhead will quickly develop behind the exiting trough Saturday night.
An upper closed low, on the southwest side of Lake Michigan, will continue moving to the northeast. This will lift moisture away from southern Indiana and central Kentucky and bring drier conditions in the coming days as upper ridging advances from the southwest. Mid and upper level ridging will work into the Ohio Valley this weekend as the recent upper level trough departs off to the northeast. This upper ridging, combined with deep southwest flow will allow for our temperatures to remain above normal for this time of year. High temps on Sun are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s, a near 7-10 degrees or so above climate.
942 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Upper low slowly lifting into the Great Lakes provides daily shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday.
918 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Periodic rain chances are expected through Saturday with low pressure passage. An upper low should continue its NEWD drift across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region tonight. Abundant cloud cover will limit instability while jet dynamics wane through the day as the northward lifting upper low weakens. High pressure to the east and upper ridging overhead will quickly develop behind the exiting trough Saturday night.
756 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Over the next 24 hours an upper low slides across the Great Lakes into southeast Ontario Province, Canada with a trough that initially pushes into the southeastern states then shifts offshore. Upper ridging aloft south FL retrogrades to the western Gulf and builds over the southern and central plains. At the surface relaxed high pressure across the area gives way to a weak frontal boundary. propelled by the upper trough and high pressure tracking eastward along the northern Gulf coast. High pressure currently across the waters gives way to a south bound front Sat. High pressure builds back in behind the front and continues into early next with a relaxed gradient.
907 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Low pressure over southeast Georgia and its associated cold front will move into the local waters tonight into Saturday morning. Trough axis aloft near the Al-Ga border will move east tonight while a weak surface wave over se Ga moves offshore. Highs on Saturday will be in the low/mid 80s.
Ingested the latest temperature and dewpoint obs and interpolated through to 08/12Z, when morning lows will range from the low to mid 60s across the ArkLaTex before rebounding into the lower 90s Saturday afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 82 62 82 63 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 79 59 82 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 80 60 81 61 / 10 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 77 56 80 57 / 60 20 0 0 0.
Quiet weather this afternoon as H5 ridging has begun to build over the area. Tonight, H5 heights will increase in earnest as the ridge sets up shop over the Ohio Valley. However, this increase in heights will act as a pseudo warm front, and models are depicting rather stout isentropic upglide on the 310K surface (around 650 mb). Can't rule out a few sprinkles in the predawn hours as well, but time- height cross sections are rather dry in the lowest 3 km. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 60s.
642 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Upper low slowly lifting into the Great Lakes provides daily shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday.
Fog and clouds will lift and mix out this morning, with dry and mostly clear skies prevailing as upper level ridging builds into the region. At the surface, high pressure will keep winds light and variable.
354 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Periodic rain chances are expected today with low pressure passage. Scattered showers will continue through most of the day as the main upper level trough slowly moves eastward. The area of showers will shift eastward this afternoon, correlating with the moving trough. With cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be cooler, but still remain above seasonal levels. High pressure to the east and upper ridging overhead will quickly develop behind the exiting trough tonight.
Really big bubble means no trouble! High pressure continues to build over the central US leading to dry and warm conditions through Sunday.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 62 82 63 81 / 10 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 82 60 82 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 80 60 81 61 80 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 56 80 57 80 / 20 10 0 0 10.
Mid-level ridging building into Alabama and Middle Tennessee will help to increase temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs expected to get into the mid-80s this afternoon. The mid-level ridge becomes solidly entrenched over the Tennessee Valley Sunday, with heights topping out near 588 dam.
151 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 [Through 06Z Sunday] Widespread LIFR/IFR CIGS in low stratus and fog expected to develop following the frontal passage this morning at all TAF sites with the lowest CIGS/VSBYS in LIFR conds at VQQ/GNV and IFR CIGS/VSBYS at SSI/JAX/CRG, while likely only falling into the MVFR CIGS at SGJ. Trough axis aloft near the Al-Ga border will move east tonight while a weak surface wave over se Ga moves offshore. Highs on Saturday will be in the low/mid 80s.
The upper low will pass through our area tonight. Models indicate the best chance of precipitation overnight will be across south-central Idaho and the central Idaho mountains as moisture wraps around the upper low.
This is in advance of a developing warm front over MO/AR. As an upper level low develops off the Carolina Coast as a ridge builds in from Louisiana to eastern Kentucky.
Skies will be mostly sunny today, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 90s south, to the mid and upper 90s across the Big Country. Low level moisture will be on the increase tonight, ahead of an approaching short wave trough to our west.
A weak coastal low pressure system may bring a few additional light showers to Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills on Sunday. The upper level ridge have moved well east of the area. The weak surface front and upper level trough upstream in the western Great Lakes are making slow progress east. The trough is lifting to the northeast while the front is weakening. Late tonight into Sunday the upper level trough gets here while short waves are moving north ahead of a large coastal low. Temperatures now from the mid 50s to lower 60s will rise to the low 60s for the Catskills and Poconos to the mid and upper 60s for the rest of the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Mid level ridging initially over deep south Texas, will weaken and slide eastward tonight into Sunday night as a significant 500 mb trough digs over the Four Corners and into the southern High Plains.
and although a brief shower or two could occur over the western half of the CWA today, felt the chance was minimal enough to leave out of the forecast as an upper level ridge builds in from the southwest. Patchy fog is possible again late tonight and early Sunday morning, otherwise another fair and warm day is expected as the upper level ridge axis passes over Middle TN and then moves slightly to our east.
Upper level ridging is building into the Mid-South this morning. Upper level ridging will prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Otherwise it will be a pleasant fall day as an upper level trough transitions out of the Northern Rockies. An approaching cold front will cause increasing showers across North-Central Idaho and Northwest Montana on Sunday morning.
Tonight Heading into tonight, aforementioned ridging will continue to build in from the west with a 120+ kt jet streak to our northwest.
Cloud bases will gradually lift, with any clearing resulting in renewed CU field developing, and will call for maxes in the low to mid 70s (similar to yesterday) due to the mild start to the day. Model trends for late tonight is for a more active warm front (at least worthy of chance pops) lifting through southern Lower Michigan as stronger low spins up over Minnesota. Sharp 850-700 MB moisture gradient works through Sunday morning, with respectable mid level lapse rates and adequate instability for a slight chance of thunderstorms with 850 MB computed capes in excess of 500 J/kg and K indices in the lower to perhaps mid 30s (NAM by far most aggressive).
324 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 A backdoor cold front that pushed south of the area will bring cooler air for the weekend. High pressure builds in from the north and settles to the east by Sunday setting up onshore flow and partly to mostly cloudy skies with little in the way of precipitation.
Quiet weather this afternoon as H5 ridging has begun to build over the area. Tonight, H5 heights will increase in earnest as the ridge sets up shop over the Ohio Valley. However, this increase in heights will act as a pseudo warm front, and models are depicting rather stout isentropic upglide on the 310K surface (around 650 mb). Can't rule out a few sprinkles in the predawn hours as well, but time- height cross sections are rather dry in the lowest 3 km. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 60s. The thermal ridge will be maximized over the forecast area on Sunday.
1255 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Periodic rain chances are expected today with low pressure passage. Scattered showers will continue overnight as a series of upper level disturbances rush northward in the southeastern quadrant of the upper low. The Low will weaken and fill overnight as it heads toward the western Great Lakes. Scattered showers will continue through most of the day as the main upper level trough slowly moves eastward. The area of showers will shift eastward this afternoon, correlating with the moving trough. With cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be cooler, but still remain above seasonal levels. High pressure to the east and upper ridging overhead will quickly develop behind the exiting trough tonight.
410 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Current surface analysis shows a low pressure system off the SE GA coast. Aloft, a longwave trough stretches from the central Great Lakes down to the SE GA coast. NListemaa Upper level pattern across the CONUS will be active through the upcoming week, but our local weather will once again be influenced heavily by a cut-off low.
/issued 333 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ Quiet weather will persist through the weekend as upper ridging builds into the region from northern Mexico.
This low will deepen and move northeastward through the short term period, resulting in a rather long period of showers and a few storms across the forecast area. Showers and associated cloud cover will clear out from west to east Sunday morning into the afternoon as the low moves into Ontario and high pressure attempts to build back into the region. 3) Another shot of cooler air will accompany this system, resulting in many areas possibly seeing their first freeze/hard freeze of the season later in the work week. This will highly depend on the strength, speed, and exact path the low takes.
417 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 A weakening upper low slowly approaching our region will bring some showers mainly to far western New York today and tonight. A weak wave aloft and associated surface warm front will pass through the area on Sunday. At the same time, southeasterly onshore flow on the north side of low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard off the Delmarva will throw moisture back to the northwest across eastern PA and southcentral NY.
An upper ridge builds into the region through Sunday as an eastern states upper trof moves slowly into the western Atlantic, and in the process forms an upper low over the Florida Peninsula/Bahamas region.