Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
921 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020 Wx map shows cold front moving across Inland Southeast Texas approaching BPT, and just passed AEX & DRI across Central Louisiana. This feature, along with a northern stream trof digging into the ERN CONUS, will drive a stronger front through the area WED into into THU, with widespread showers followed by stronger CAA. High pressure prevails FRI and SAT as temperatures moderate and yes. A pacific upper low is progged to move quickly across the southern U.
Weaker offshore flow today resulted in slightly cooler temperatures across most of the San Francisco Bay Area. But even with today's slight cooling, temperatures were still about five degrees warmer than normal in the Bay Area. Farther south, across much of Monterey County and San Benito County, temperatures were slightly warmer today than yesterday, with a few locations warming into the mid 70s, such as Pinnacles National Park.
Lingering rainfall continues to gradually taper off to the east this Tue evening, as a cold front makes its way E/SE thru the cntrl TN Valley. Light rainfall will continue into the overnight period as the front exits and slightly cooler/drier air begins to spread into the region from the NNE. Current temps range from the mid 50s east to the upper 40s west, and should continue to fall into the lower 40s for most spots late tonight with the influx of cooler air. As an arctic high builds into the region, drier and cooler air will filter into the region. Daytime highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday reaching the lower 50s.
143 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Low pressure will approach from the west overnight while a second low moves across the Gulf of Maine. High pressure will build across the region Wednesday night into the weekend.
210 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 The strong Arctic high pressure is moving toward the area tonight, with modified Arctic air already in place over much of Iowa and Wisconsin. North of this low stratus, a wide swath of mid clouds extends through all of central Iowa to southern ND. For such a strong high pressure system, cloud cover seems quite widespread. Clouds will limit the ability for us to hit the forecast lows in the lower single digits tonight, however, they'll also inhibit any real warming today, as the CAA continues.
340 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Broad upper level troughing will continue to spread across eastern Canada and the US today while mid level ridging holds south of Florida. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure is ridging west across the Florida Peninsula, but will shift east today and tonight as a cold front associated with the upper level trough starts to push southeast towards Florida.
940 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2020 Minor update to the overnight lows, mainly for the higher basins, based on evening obs.
334 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure will promote quiet conditions for the next several days.
Tonight will be the coldest period of the foreseeable future as arctic air accompanying the high sends 925/850mb temps plummeting to -15 to -19C across the forecast area. As the center of the high will sit just west of the forecast area, winds aren't expected to completely decouple, but they will be light.
High pressure will dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and below normal temps. Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling and low temps will fall into the 20s with teens across the higher elevations.
But, if clouds time in toward diurnal minimum northwest lows could be several degrees warmer than forecast.
This high will continue to drop southeast early this morning and will be centered over central ND by sunrise. Although the high will be settling over the area Wednesday morning, there should be enough of a gradient to produce dangerous wind chills.
1041 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the region this evening.
311 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough extending from southern Manitoba westward to northern California. Embedded within this trough is a stronger area of vorticity moving into Wyoming. It's this portion of the trough that will drive our weather in the near term.
An upper level disturbance and even cooler conditions will move through on Thursday. Southerly flow and warmer conditions will move into the region for the weekend. Thursday night is likely to feature lows in the teens as an Arctic High pressure system centers itself just west of the Ohio Valley.
Winds will become northeasterly behind a weak cold front and increase to around 10 knots. Upper level ridging centered between western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula will remain stationary through the day. The ridge will then flatten out tonight and begin to retrograde to the west overnight. At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving to the northeast to the north of Maine, with a surface cold front across north central Georgia. Strong high pressure diving southeast across the northern Plains will help nudge the weak frontal boundary southward into the area today. Isolated to widely scattered light showers are possible across northeast Florida tonight in the low level northeasterly flow. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s across southeast Georgia and the upper 70s to mid 80s across northeast Florida.
Cooler highs at or just slightly below seasonal normals are expected today as cold air advection accompanies strong southern Canadian high pressure system influences begin to build across mid state region. This strong surface ridging influence will move southeastward into Carolinas as upcoming weekend progresses.
A mid-level trough over the Northern Plains was providing enough forcing to produce some light snow across northern Nebraska. Dry conditions are expected this morning into early this afternoon with highs in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s before the mid-level trough axis over northern NE shifts southward toward the area. Model soundings show increasing mid-level moisture over northern KS this afternoon with the approaching trough axis, however there still will be a modest amount of dry air in the low-levels that will need to be overcome. This dry air combined with weakened forcing as the trough approaches the NE/KS border will likely delay the onset of precipitation until late afternoon/early evening across north central to far northeast KS and should result in any precipitation being very light.
534 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough extending from southern Manitoba westward to northern California. Embedded within this trough is a stronger area of vorticity moving into Wyoming. It's this portion of the trough that will drive our weather in the near term.
Highs will be on the cooler side due to influence of a cooler continental airmass and scattered to broken cloud coverage still over much of the Mid-South. The influence of mid-level moisture, a weak upper trough, and upper jet will allow for rain to return across portions of northern Mississippi this evening and southeast Arkansas/southwest Tennessee after midnight. Otherwise, soundings are more favorable for rain across northern Mississippi and Thursday morning temperatures well above freezing. A weak upper trough will swing across the Mississippi Valley region Thursday afternoon bringing rain chances to an end across the Mid-South.
Weak surface ridging over the south-central FL peninsula with weak pressure gradient in place. Weak surface ridging across the southern waters with a weak frontal trough approaching from the north becoming quasi-stationary later today south of the Cape. Some coastal troughing over the local waters this evening and overnight is forecast.
The dense fog over coastal portions of the area has been rapidly improving then dissipating in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
/issued 340 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020/ Broad upper level troughing will continue to spread across eastern Canada and the US today while mid level ridging holds south of Florida. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure is ridging west across the Florida Peninsula, but will shift east today and tonight as a cold front associated with the upper level trough starts to push southeast towards Florida.
521 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Cold air is filtering into the state as high pressure slowly expands from the Rockies and northern Plains states. The high pressure will eventually cover all of the contiguous states. Temperatures will become warmer than normal again for the weekend. High pressure continues to expand in from the NW for the period.
921 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure/drying today and tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area Thursday.
A cold front has now advanced south of the forecast area. /issued 420 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/ The latest cold front has pushed through southeast Texas last evening and is beginning to exit the south central Louisiana coast this morning. Temperatures currently range from the upper 40s in central Louisiana to the upper 60s in Morgan City in St Mary's parish ahead of the cold front.
Despite the warmer conditions under the cloud cover, wind chills over west central MN are beginning to approach advisory criteria so left the Wind Chill Advisory in effect. Reduced lows by at least a few degrees near the ridge axis in western MN where the best chance for -20 will be. The arctic high pressure retreats to the south of the area Thursday night allowing southerly winds to develop on the backside of the high. This will gradually draw in warmer air from the plains.
917 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Except for some isolated flurries on Thursday, high pressure will maintain dry weather, but with moderating temperature through the weekend.
420 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 The latest cold front has pushed through southeast Texas last evening and is beginning to exit the south central Louisiana coast this morning. Temperatures currently range from the upper 40s in central Louisiana to the upper 60s in Morgan City in St Mary's parish ahead of the cold front.
The forecast remains on track to facilitate another very cold day under Arctic high pressure. Highs today will only reach the lower single digits either side of zero thanks to high pressure that will traverse the region through the day. Thursday's temperatures are expected to slowly rebound as ridging builds to the west, slowly working eastward into the CWA through the day.
914 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Weak ridging continues across the area, with warm and humid conditions continuing.
419 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Cold air is filtering into the state as high pressure slowly expands from the Rockies and northern Plains states. The high pressure will eventually cover all of the contiguous states. Temperatures will become warmer than normal again for the weekend. High pressure continues to expand in from the NW for the period.
As this trough moves east to southeast into Colorado today, the H2 jet will increase to around 135 kts over the combined Panhandles by 6 AM Thursday. Even before the cold front moves through PoPs will increase after sunset from the northwest to southeast by midnight. Besides lift from collision of the cold front with warmer moist air, there will also be a chance for some frontogenesis to aid in forcing for ascent, primarily over the northwest Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle.
As the warmer temps aloft occur Thursday, the mountains and adjacent foothills will be warmer, as well as the places that see a breeze.
Couple this trend with marginal sfc temps and measurable snow is likely to be confined to near the OK / KS border with a low chance of the highest terrain of far NW AR also seeing a light dusting. The reinforcing cold front will cool high temps for Thursday and especially for Thursday night as sfc ridging looks to remain across the fcst area allowing for ideal radiational cooling.
246 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Current surface analysis shows front now south of the region, with high pressure centered over southern SK. Upper level analysis shows trough over the northern high Plains, with high amplitude ridge along the Pacific NW coast. Quieter and eventually much milder weather can be expected for the rest of the week as the ridge to the west slowly slides eastward. Main chances for light snow today will be across south central SD as the trough slides southeast through the central Plains. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon and evening as high pressure slides east of the area.
A narrow area of high pressure is in place just off the west coast this morning with fairly strong trough to the west of it. The trough to the west of the ridge will becoming a cutoff low and move by to the south of the area. THere will be quite a few mid and high clouds around Thursday as the low moves into southern CA. Temperatures in inland areas will be in the low to mid 60s.
Highs will be on the cooler side due to influence of a cooler continental airmass and scattered to broken cloud coverage still over much of the Mid-South. The influence of mid-level moisture, a weak upper trough, and upper jet will allow for rain to return across portions of northern Mississippi this evening and southeast Arkansas/southwest Tennessee after midnight. Otherwise, soundings are more favorable for rain across northern Mississippi Thursday morning with temperatures well above freezing. A weak upper trough will swing across the Mississippi Valley region Thursday afternoon bringing rain chances to an end across the Mid-South.
The strong Arctic high pressure is moving toward the area tonight, with modified Arctic air already in place over much of Iowa and Wisconsin. North of this low stratus, a wide swath of mid clouds extends through all of central Iowa to southern ND. For such a strong high pressure system, cloud cover seems quite widespread. Clouds will limit the ability for us to hit the forecast lows in the lower single digits tonight, however, they'll also inhibit any real warming today, as the CAA continues. The high will remain over the CWA through Thursday night, with another quiet clear cold day in the teens and 20s followed by a much more calm and cold night in the single digits north to lower teens south.
Light drizzle potential spreads north tonight, with light freezing drizzle possible late tonight and Thursday morning over mainly the western half of the forecast area.
700 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Cold air is filtering into the state as high pressure slowly expands from the Rockies and northern Plains states. The high pressure will eventually cover all of the contiguous states. Temperatures will become warmer than normal again for the weekend. High pressure continues to expand in from the NW for the period.
As the high begins to slide south on Thursday, will see WAA begin to develop, allowing temperatures to rise into the 20s and 30s by Thursday afternoon. Thursday we see an upper ridge over the rockies, becoming more zonal as we move into the weekend.
Tonight will be the coldest period of the foreseeable future as arctic air accompanying the high sends 925/850mb temps plummeting to -15 to -19C across the forecast area. As the center of the high will sit just west of the forecast area, winds aren't expected to completely decouple, but they will be light. As the high slides off to our south on Thursday, the cold air aloft will retreat off to the east.
High pressure will begin to strengthen over the region today, leading to a mix of sun and valley stratus/fog. A cold start is underway, with many valleys seeing temperatures in the low teens to single digits, and even some below zero temperatures near the Continental Divide. The high pressure ridge will peak in strength tonight into Thursday, producing very stable atmospheric conditions.
615 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure will promote quiet conditions for the next several days.
328 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A cold high pressure has settled over North Dakota this morning, which has produced light winds and clear skies, with nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. This ridge of high pressure remains over the area today and tonight, which should keep our skies mostly clear and winds generally light.
For today into tonight, cold advection continues in the lower levels with warm advection in the mid levels into an 850 MB boundary across Central Texas while weak upper level impulses pass overhead. Due to the strengthened cold advection, highs on Thursday will be a little cooler than today.
315 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough of arctic air running from the Hudson Bay through southern Manitoba into eastern Montana. An equally large ridge rises up from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest through British Columbia and into the frontrange of the Yukon and northern BC where it is forming a chinook. Behind this yet another trough sits over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: A very cold start is anticipated as the center of the trough exits east and begins shallowing out the cold air across the region.
433 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Current surface analysis shows front now south of the region, with high pressure centered over southern SK. Upper level analysis shows trough over the northern high Plains, with high amplitude ridge along the Pacific NW coast. Quieter and eventually much milder weather can be expected for the rest of the week as the ridge to the west slowly slides eastward. Main chances for light snow today will be across south central SD as the trough slides southeast through the central Plains. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon and evening as high pressure slides east of the area.
521 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Except for a small light snow chance on Thursday, high pressure will maintain dry weather, but with moderating temperature through the weekend.
324 AM PST Wed Feb 19 2020 A weak trough of low pressure moving inland through California has brought stronger onshore flow.
Highs today will only reach the lower single digits either side of zero thanks to high pressure that will traverse the region through the day. Thursday's temperatures are expected to slowly rebound as ridging builds to the west, slowly working eastward into the CWA through the day.
High pressure over the region will maintain dry conditions through at least Thursday.
High pressure ridging will build over the forecast area today but the flow aloft will continue to be northerly keeping us on the cold side. Heights will continue to rise as high pressure continues to build over the forecast area.
1049 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Cold air is filtering into the state as high pressure slowly expands from the Rockies and northern Plains states. The high pressure will eventually cover all of the contiguous states. Temperatures will become warmer than normal again for the weekend. max temps across the NW mtns will be mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s, while the highest maxes will be south of the I-81 corridor - in the mid 40s. High pressure continues to expand in from the NW for the period.
High pressure is expected across the area through the weekend. Expecting rather extensive mid level cloud to develop across the area this evening, as a short wave trough drops through the Great Lakes.
High pressure will move through NW into SC North Dakota during the day with skies clear over the area into tonight. Highs today will only reach the lower single digits either side of zero thanks to high pressure that will traverse the region through the day. Thursday's temperatures are expected to slowly rebound as ridging builds to the west, slowly working eastward into the CWA through the day.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough of arctic air running from the Hudson Bay through southern Manitoba into eastern Montana. An equally large ridge rises up from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest through British Columbia and into the frontrange of the Yukon and northern BC where it is forming a chinook. Behind this yet another trough sits over the Gulf of Alaska. Today: A very cold start is anticipated as the center of the trough exits east and begins shallowing out the cold air across the region.
Will bring in prevailing showers tonight, then rain tomorrow morning per high res guidance with increasing influence of the next disturbance aloft/sfc cold front. A cold front has now advanced south of the forecast area. /issued 420 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/ The latest cold front has pushed through southeast Texas last evening and is beginning to exit the south central Louisiana coast this morning. Temperatures currently range from the upper 40s in central Louisiana to the upper 60s in Morgan City in St Mary's parish ahead of the cold front.
Currently, Arctic high pressure is situated over western and central North Dakota.
155 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Upper level ridge building from the northwest will bring dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday night. We should see highs in the 30s to lower 40s tomorrow, with nighttime lows getting progressively warmer. Lee trof is already forming, and gradients will tighten significantly tonight courtesy of a 1040+ mb high over eastern ID and western WY.
Otherwise a large high pressure ridge will continue to build towards WI from the northern Plains.
/issued 914 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020/ Weak ridging continues across the area, with warm and humid conditions continuing.
808 AM PST Wed Feb 19 2020 Quiet weather continues for much of the Pacific NW as a pronounced ridge and dry air passes over the region.
149 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 The upper air pattern features a mid level trof settling south from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi River valleys. A surface reflection in the form of a reinforcing cold front stretches from southeastern WI through Iowa and into the Plains. Expect clouds to increase tonight with the approach of the trof and cold front, but believe measurable precipitation will be hard to come by as synoptic lift is weak and low levels remain quite dry. High temperatures tomorrow will be at or below freezing except for parts of the eastern Ozarks and southeast Missouri which may recover into the middle 30s during the afternoon.
As for temperatures, a cold front will push southward through western Kansas this evening allowing for much colder air to filter through the high plains. Expect lows down into the teens(F) in west central and parts of southwest Kansas to the lower/mid 20s(F) in south central Kansas. Expect highs only up into the upper 20s(F) to the lower/mid 30s(F) Thursday afternoon.
1154 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure will promote quiet conditions for the next several days.
1025 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Current surface analysis shows front now south of the region, with high pressure centered over southern SK. Upper level analysis shows trough over the northern high Plains, with high amplitude ridge along the Pacific NW coast. Quieter and eventually much milder weather can be expected for the rest of the week as the ridge to the west slowly slides eastward. Main chances for light snow today will be across south central SD as the trough slides southeast through the central Plains. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon and evening as high pressure slides east of the area.
High pressure located along the Missouri River northwest of Bismarck at 20z will move southeast tonight with winds turning more southwest at 5 to 10 mph over E ND and far NW MN late tonight into Thu AM. Sunny on Thursday as well, and milder as warmer 850-925 mb airmass spreads southeast from western Canada with this warm advection continuing into Thu night.
High pressure will be to the north Tonight, with an inverted trough over the Atlantic coastal waters. An area of low pressure will gather over the central gulf coast region overnight, with a front stretching east from this low into southern GA toward morning. The coastal trough will be responsible for a few overnight showers for the NE FL coast.
Temps should not be as cold Thursday night as the high slips south and we switch to a southwest component and nudge the influence of the low level thermal trough to our east.