Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
413 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2016 High pressure returns today, ushering in a cooler and drier pattern which will remain into the weekend.
Upper level ridging decreases as a strong trough over the west deepens.
Isolated showers into early evening will be followed by cooler, drier and less humid air gradually filtering into central Indiana overnight. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather from Thursday into next Wednesday.
435 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Early morning METARs and MSAS analyses depict a much cooler and drier air mass spreading into the LSX CWA. 09z dew points were in the upper 50s to near 60 across the area, which is a welcome relief from the higher dew points of the last several days. Louis at 09z and should continue sinking southward this morning, bringing cooler and drier conditions to the rest of the CWA within the next few hours.
Scattered convection across the area today as cold front moves through area.
607 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Drier and cooler air into the weekend. A cold front will push south of the region this morning.
151 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 A cold front currently stretches from near Lebanon, Missouri to Mount Vernon, Illinois. The high will bring cooler and drier conditions to the area.
The latest forecast track from the NHC remains similar to the previous which means the local area will fortunately be on the "good side" of the cyclone, and thats where you want to be. Positive impacts from Hermine will be subsidence on the outside of the cyclone which will keep western zones dry today. Dryness also brings rising temps, so have have kept previous forecast of mid 90s for the highs today. Although morning lows may not be much lower than the last few days, it will certainly feel much cooler with dewpoints "only" in the lower 70s.
The upper ridge will shift slightly south and east, setting up from the Central Plains into Ontario by tonight. The winds will help keep the boundary layer mixed and lows tonight should be near the 60 mark except to the trees in the far eastern tier where winds will be less and readings a bit cooler.
357 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2016 Upper ridge of high pressure covers much of colorado this morning while water vapor imagery showing driest air across Northeast Colorado. Good moist, southeast low level flow and Denver cyclone set up as more extensive clouds over Northeast Colorado and swirling up through Northern Larimer and Weld counties. Given the well developed cyclone would not be surprised the clouds make it to DIA. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer over yesterday.
111 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Cold front slides through tonight. Drier and cooler weather through the end of the week and into the weekend unless tropical storm Hermine takes a more westward track. The other area we are watching is the cold front approaching from the northwest. Behind the front we are looking at much cooler and drier weather.
Looking for high temperatures in the low 70s inland, and upper 60s to 70 at the lake, given the upper 60s lake water temperatures and the expected cloud cover being thicker than inland. Enough northeast to east flow off the warmer lake waters will keep lows lakeside around 60.
506 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Upper level ridge across the Central U. This should help a weak cold front push southward across the eastern half of the Panhandles.
Surface analysis has a high pressure system across the area and extending to the east. The upper level ridge over the de-amplify as the western United States trough broadens and strengthens, which will put us under southwest flow. This is a favorable setup for multiple pieces of energy to be kicked out of the base of the trough into the Central Plains.
111 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery shows mid level circulation still lingering over our CWA beneath large scale ridge. Regarding temperatures: Even with stratus/fog we should see cooler low temperatures than the last few nights due to cooler air mass aloft in place (by about 5C). Consensus favors highs in the upper 50s to around 60F, but if clearing takes place (in the north) a few locations may drop into the low to mid 50s. High temperatures Thursday may be a little warmer due to potential clearing and drier conditions despite a similar air mass in place. There is a persistent southwesterly flow into the region due to a deep trough in the western CONUS and a ridge in the eastern CONUS.
Cold front is currently working southward from near Cleveland to approximately Champaign, Illinois. Still expecting a few showers and embedded storms overnight, with the best chances in the higher terrain nearer the parent upper forcing. This trough axis has interacted with diurnal heating to form scattered showers and convection, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway. The cold front is progged to make a southward push through Eastern Kentucky tonight before exiting to our south tomorrow afternoon. This will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow morning, with some showers lingering along the high terrain through tomorrow afternoon. The winds will turn more northerly tonight and help usher in cooler, drier air behind the frontal passage.
There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop along the trough early this morning before 7:00 AM, mainly toward the coast. Otherwise, high pressure aloft and slightly drier air should translate into less coverage later today as compared to yesterday. Even so, the high resolution models once again show the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Quiet wx conditions should then prevail heading into the overnight hrs, as early morning lows fall into the lower 70s for most locations. Cold front positioned well n of the cntrl TN Valley over the Midwest states into the OH Valley region will continue to dive swd going into the daytime hrs Thu, with iso/sct showers/tstms developing along/just ahead of the approaching sfc boundary. A cold front out of the n should then dive swd across the region during the day, with iso/sct shra/tsra possible along/ahead of the front.
256 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Weak cold frontal boundary making its presence into southern MO/OK and will move to near the I-40 corridor by late this aftn.
246 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 High pressure was located over northwest Ontario at 07Z/2am. Meanwhile, an upper level trof was dropping over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. The northeast flow will affect the forecast area today with increasing cloud cover and cooler air moving over Lake Superior. Max temps here will reach the lower 70s. The high will drift to the northern Great Lakes tonight. Meanwhile, upper level ridging was moving overhead. This combination will allow for a warmer airmass to begin to affect the area, along with gradually increasing humidity. Some fog will be possible late tonight in the closest proximity to the ridge axis which will be just to the east of the Wisconsin forecast area.
Mainly dry weather across the area Thursday as an upper high holds across the region.
301 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Hermine is moving to the north slowly with a trough to the north of the storm. Winds acorss the keys are highest west of the Seven Mile Bridge and may be due to the asymmetric flow toward Hermine.
In short, the high inversion levels, daytime heating and persistent lake moisture will support a large variation in ceiling heights throughout the day. Upper wave/trough axis over Lake Superior yesterday evening sliding through the Central Great Lakes this morning, supporting further cold advection isolated-scattered lake enhanced showers off Lake Huron (returns have already popped up) with brisk north-northeast winds, as 700 mb temps reach at or slightly below zero. Latest guidance supports highs in the lower 70s, with some mid 70s toward Ohio border.
Also of note is that we may also see a weak front move in from the north corresponding with the upper trough's passage and this may provide just a bit of an focus for convection this afternoon. Mid-level northwesterly flow will increase a bit with the passage of the trough and this may help the activity move along from northwest to southeast and thus may limit the potential for excessive rainfall from nearly stationary storms like we saw on Wednesday. Top-down drying will be working in with the upper trough by this evening.
1147 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016 High pressure centered over the Central Rockies will be shifting east tonight as a Pacific trough moves onshore. A few weak showers and thunderstorms will persist this evening over the higher mountains with one or two drifting over the valleys. As the trough moves inland on Thursday, moisture will be drawn northward across southwest Colorado and eventually up into the central zones by late in the day. Diurnal heating and slight increase in speed sheer, as winds aloft strengthen with the approaching trough, will be enough to kick off at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the picture through the night Thursday night as the trough moves into the Great Basin and moisture continues lifting north across the region.
High pressure will bring in cooler air as well, expecting afternoon highs only reaching into the middle to upper 70s. Overnight lows will also be cooler.
Upper ridge will be over the Dakotas today while an upper low will be over British Columbia during.
120 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 An upper level trough will pass through the region today, causing isolated showers over NY and PA. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon, before high pressure and clear weather settles in for the weekend. It will be a mainly cloudy start to the day as the upper level trough rotates across NY and PA. Temperatures will range from the lower 70s over the far north to the upper 70s along our southern- most counties. Temperatures will dip into the lower and middle 50s tonight.
307 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Drier and cooler air into the weekend. A cold front will push south of the region this morning.
Late tonight and Thursday we will see an increasing surface gradient and increasing southerly inflow over western ND in response to a digging trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Tropical Storm Hermine continues on a slow northeast push toward the Florida Panhandle this morning ahead of mid to upper trough over the southeast states. At the surface across the central sections of the country, ridge of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes/Southern Canada to the northern gulf coast. Between Hermine and the ridge a northeast flow continues to push in a stable and modestly dry air mass.
Water vapor shows well defined wave moving south across western KS which continues to enhance additional showers and isolated thunder across northwest OK, while upper trough continues to drive southeast through the Great Lakes region. Surface cold front located over southern KS/MO this morning will continue to push south accompanied by much drier airmass with dew points eventually dropping into the 50s for a nice change of pace.
The high resolution models are good, no doubt, but while they may get the general concept right, they often fail at the exact placement of things.
Upper ridge will be over the Dakotas today while an upper low will be over British Columbia.
In addition to the showers, this cooler air coupled with breezy northeast winds will make it feel a bit fall-like today as well. Highs will only peak in the lower to mid 70s in most areas. A blocking pattern will ensue with active subtropical weather to our east keeping the ridge locked in place.
219 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 The effects of high pressure will result in dry weather with lower temperatures and humidity through the short term period. We will start off the extended with high pressure both at the surface and aloft. This will allow the high to drift south and possibly a little east.
This is going to change today as upper ridge axis shifts east and winds shift to the southwest across Carbon and Albany Counties.
437 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery together with GFS 500mb heights and winds showed an amplified pattern across North America with an upper level ridge centered along the 100W Meridian.
126 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2016 A cold front with scattered showers and thunderstorms will pass through the region tonight ushering in cooler and mainly dry weather for Thursday onward into the first half of the upcoming weekend.
1204 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 The big picture on the water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the Nation is currently dominated by a high amplitude pattern, with a eastern Canadian trough juxtaposed against our Rocky Mountain ridge, thus leaving the Central Plains under the influence of a northwest flow. Of additional note, a cutoff circulation, that was spinning over the Four Corners region recently, is seen shearing apart across Kansas and Missouri this afternoon as the circulation continues to get absorbed into the mean westerlies that are diving under the Canadian trough. Otherwise, the next few days will see the Rocky Mountain ridge continued to progress east as a large trough makes landfall across the West Coast.
217 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 A cold front will move south of the Ohio River by Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will then build in through the weekend.
Temperatures gradually warm back up to the low to mid 90s.
Otherwise a lengthy stretch of dry and pleasant weather can be expected through Labor Day as high pressure dominates our weather pattern for several days. Rest of the short term very quiet as upper trough moves out tonight heights build going into the weekend. Expect large diurnal temp swings with sfc ridging and dry air mass in place.
Clouds have overrun the area west of the Cascades this morning, and more clouds are expected this afternoon and evening as another weak front presses onshore this evening and overnight, and the parent closed low to the north continues to gradually dig south.
137 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 High pressure continues to build into the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. Upper level trough is still upstream of Michigan over Lake Superior. Expect generally partly cloudy skies and cool conditions as temps fall into the lower to mid 50s for overnight lows. On the latest surface weather map of interest, 1028 mb high pressure was centered over northern Manitoba. It will be seasonably cool with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s with highs Thursday in the upper 60s to around 70. High pressure starts off Thu evening over far northern Ontario and Hudson Bay.
308 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery/RAP 500mb analysis early this morning revealing a deep mid-level trough rotating southeast across WI/Great lakes region while an amplifying ridge extended from the Northern Plain into the central Provinces of Canada. Cyclonic flow associated with the trough was bringing some altocumulus southward into eastern/central Wisconsin. not much impactful weather as ridge of high pressure builds into the Upper Mississippi River region. May still see some of that altocumulus/higher stratocumulus linger over mainly central portions of WI as that trough rotates southeast out of the region. Surface to 500mb ridge of high pressure builds over the region tonight for clearing skies and light lower boundary layer winds.
The upper ridge will be centered over northern Mexico today, which will result in weak northwest flow aloft across the area through tonight. Temperatures will be a little cooler today across the northern half of the forecast area where cloud cover will be greatest.
427 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2016 The current IR satellite image is showing mid to high level clouds rotating anti-cyclonically into Colorado beneath a ridge of high pressure.
If the lower RH values do occur, than a fire weather headline will be needed.
We should see a warm southerly flow within the boundary layer overnight tonight as a cold front steamrolls its way through Idaho tomorrow around mid to late morning. Models are generally showing this to be a dry cold front with very little precip, but plenty of winds.
With pesky upper level disturbance having shifted south and southeast, 500 mb ridge will gradually ease into the Rio Grande Valley later today and tonight.
This moisture will be pulled into our region tonight as ridging overhead is replaced by a backing and increasing southwest flow aloft. There could be some light snow showers develop over the high country as this moisture works across. The warm air that has been dominating the region looks to get suppressed south and east as large scale troughing will be dominating western NOAM.
Instability ahead of a cold front will support a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Tuesday, possibly reaching 60F in Boise (record is 63F set in 1991). Surface winds southeast to south 10-20 kts, becoming southwest to west 20-30 kts after 18z, with gusts exceeding 40 kts over the higher terrain of southeast Oregon.
747 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017 Surface trof moving across eastern Montana/Wyoming this evening. Upper trough across the central CONUS has shifted east of the CWA with upper ridging building back in. An upper trough will push into the western CONUS Tuesday into Tuesday night.
346 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017 Deep upper trough moving through the central plains today, with nwly flow aloft behind the departing trough across CO. Usual breezy spots along and west of I-25 will thus see increasing winds and mild temps, with mins staying above freezing many locations. With downslope warming and strong mid level thermal ridge developing, expect max temps Tue to soar to record levels, especially along and east of the mountains. Tue night into Wed, weak upper energy and shallow mid level moisture will combine to produce some rain/snow showers over the higher peaks along the Continental Divide, though any precip amounts will be light.
/issued 257 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Upper-trough sparking convection with embedded thunderstorms across northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas this afternoon in an area that is slightly more unstable than east Texas and Southeast Oklahoma where earlier rainfall has modified the airmass. Upper-trough to swing east across the ArkLaTex overnight and deepen into a closed low.
608 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Upper level low pressure will slowly move east through northern Texas tonight. A trough axis will extend north from this feature through eastern Kansas/western Missouri and continue into the western Great Lakes. This would most likely occur across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri near the back edge of the cloud shield associated with this upper level low.
Additional showers are still expected tomorrow as the upper low passes through the region. Therefore, shower activity will continue until the upper level trough pushes to the east and a more west to northwest flow can develop. /issued 340 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Local 88Ds show a broken line of heavy showers/thunderstorms associated with a mid-level disturbance and weak sfc trof crossing the forecast area at this time. The chance for showers will persist into Tuesday, albeit a slimmer shot, until the low and primary sfc cold front gradually push through the region. Another low aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies late in the week.
Gusty winds will accompany a cold front as it sags through the state Tuesday, and valley rain will be transitioning to snow.
Timing of the front/trough a little slower. Widespread light rain and fog developed out ahead of the trough by 18z-19z and this will remain east of the trough into the evening. Models suggest some clearing/drying behind the trough as winds become more west. Not confident of significant drying and a weak ridge builds east through 12z Tue which will likely spell at least areas of fog overnight.
Main trof axis is still situated to our east and until that and the sfc front pushes thru Tues, can't completely rule out some additional light showers as some guidance is depicting late tonight and early Tue morning. /ISSUED 346 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Areas of rain along with embedded showers and an occasional thunderstorm or two continue moving northward across much of Southeast Texas this afternoon as the mid/upper level trof axis slowly edges eastward across the state. Any fog that does develop will burn off in the morning, and then a cold front will move through the area during the day with winds shifting to the northwest behind the boundary.
Sfc winds are expected to be light and VRB overnight then becoming more NW and strengthening to moderate levels by mid morning Tue as high pressure builds across S TX. Main mid/upper level trough axis currently to the west of the CWA is prog to shift east across the area tonight and pull away from the area on Tuesday. A weak front should slide south across TX on the back side of this trough late tonight into Tuesday morning and push across the CWA during the day. higher surface moisture values /due to recent rainfall/ may impact true heating potential and current forecast values may be a little on the high side. Typically a weak west flow late in the night would allow for even cooler temps. Slightly cooler temps expected Tues Night as boundary layer moisture decreases further.
920 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight before gradually shifting on Tuesday.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. A cut-off low is over Eastern Texas. A low is developing over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and will begin to influence the weather by morning.
/issued 325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ The strong upper level ridge that brought near record heat to the Mid South this afternoon will move east this evening as a deep upper level trough approaches and cuts off as an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley.
304 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the trough from yesterday continuing east across the Plains. Behind the trough a corridor of very dry air follows. Further west a short wave ridge was also moving east. Water vapor quickly increases west of the approaching ridge axis. Due to the clear sky and the cooler, drier air mass, lows will be cooler than the last couple of nights. For some locations this will be as much as six degrees warmer than record values based on the current forecast.
Temperatures are running a solid 5 to 15 degrees cooler right now than at this time last night, and cooler temperatures are forecast for lows tonight. The next trough is set up across MT, and will move over our area during the day Tuesday.
A cold front Tuesday night will usher in a period of cold unsettled weather through the end of the week.
The upper trough that moved east through the forecast area today will form a closed upper low over the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex tonight which will move eastward over central Louisiana tomorrow.
Tonight winds will decrease and temperatures will cool down with lows in the low to mid 30s.
With the clouds and rainfall, temperatures will be held back in the lower to middle 60s for highs (upper 50s atop the Cumberland Plateau).
850 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017 Flat upper ridge over Colorado with increasing westerly flow aloft tonight through Tuesday. the ridge axis will shift to the east with the flow aloft transitioning from northwest to westerly. Some temperatures records will likely be broken including the high of 71 for Denver set in 1995. Southwest flow aloft will prevail as the upper level ridge axis shifts east of the region.
Latest upper air analysis shows the trough from yesterday continuing east across the Plains. Behind the trough a corridor of very dry air follows. Further west a short wave ridge was also moving east. Water vapor quickly increases west of the approaching ridge axis. Due to the clear sky and the cooler, drier air mass, lows will be cooler than the last couple of nights. For some locations this will be as much as six degrees warmer than record values based on the current forecast.
An upper level trough will be slowly approaching the Appalachians through the forecast period.
Weak lee troughing east of the Rockies will promote a gentle SWly downslope breeze of 10-20 mph.