Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Actually ended up being warmer as skies are only now clouding up over northern Upper Michigan. Clouds should partially clear over west half late tonight as sfc-H9 ridge slides overhead. On Monday, expect fair amount of clouds either due to lingering low clouds or mid clouds spilling across top of upper ridge sliding over Great Lakes. S to SE winds will increase ahead of the low and breezy conditions with gusts up to 30 mph should develop over forecast area. High temps will depend on how much low clouds are around and how deep we can mix, but after the warmer than expected day today and thermal ridge moving in during Mon aftn, nudged highs up toward higher end of guidance (40s to around 50F) warmest west where there should be less low cloud potential with downsloping south flow developing in the afternoon.
Temps have fallen into the low to mid 40s through the course of this evening. High pressure over the ArkLaMiss will allow for continued quiet weather tonight and to start the new work week. Conditions ended up being a little warmer and breezier than expected today, given the dry airmass and deeper mixing. A broad ridge of high pressure centered over Baja California and troughing over the eastern CONUS will keep the ArkLaMiss region beneath dry northwest flow aloft through tomorrow. This should allow for winds to go calm and temperatures to bottom out around freezing around portions of the area tonight.
Seasonable warmth will continue through the day as ridging in the Plains ushers warm air into the state. An advancing upper level trough/surface front will temper 850MB temperatures through the afternoon though surface temperatures will lag. Generally cooler conditions are expected with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s; still above average. Tuesday will bring cooler weather with highs mostly in the 40s in western and central areas. On Monday, a cold front will sweep through the area.
An upper level trough moving across the Rockies today will induce surface lee troughing. This will mitigate the fire weather threat with cooler temperatures.
For tonight, a weak cold front will sag southward into central and northeast Wisconsin, then south of the area by daybreak. Model guidance and the Canadian astronomy model do not show the low clouds dropping into the area. The only model to show the potential for the low clouds would be the MET guidance which has a moist bias. This will have a significant impact on low temperatures tonight, and possibly the highs on Monday. Even if the low clouds do not materialize, there should be mid or high clouds moving across the northern half of Wisconsin. For the most part, went a few degrees above guidance for highs, but cooler than previous forecast.
At 02Z a long ridge of high pressure had one center between Greenville and Vicksburg, MS, and another between Nashville and Bowling Green. With this ridge in place, skies are clear and winds light. High pressure centered over Arkansas this afternoon will work its way east through the short term period to the mid-Atlantic coast. As it does so, winds will shift to southerly across the lower Ohio Valley, ushering in milder air. Highs will top above normal for this time of year in at least the the lower to mid 60s.
The cold front associated with the latest Pacific system has now moved through most of the Interior Northwest. The upper level trough axis with this system remains offshore and will cross the region overnight through mid morning Monday. A cold front will move across eastern WA and OR Tuesday night with rain and snow.
1115 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 The end of the weekend continues the trend of quiet weather that has dominated the region lately, with light southwest winds helping lift afternoon highs into the low 60s this afternoon. Looking at the larger picture, the warming winds we have today will persist through Monday as a trough moves across the West Coast, inducing a quickly adjustment in the upper level flow across the Central Plains from the northwest to the southwest, helping reinforce the southwest surface winds.
Drier air will help minimum relative humidity values drop into the low to mid 20 percent range this afternoon, which could help promote a low end threat for isolated fire weather concerns, but a lack of stronger winds and weak mixing will preclude a greater concern and will therefore hold off on any fire weather mention in the HWO/graphics.
Winds will become gusty on Monday as well, as we will be in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Monday evening will feature an approaching upper-level trough moving through the Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest. A cool front will pass through the Northland on Tuesday with a period of cooler air expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.
1208 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure over the region will remain in control of the weather through Tuesday.
Highs will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
Although, soundings do support a bit of mixing in the lower levels to possibly get some gusts going.
255 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will build overhead today and move to the east by Tuesday.
145 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Mild, Pacific high pressure will build east across the Carolinas today, then offshore on Tuesday. An area of high pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will maintain clear skies across central NC through tonight. Low level thicknesses support high temperatures close to normal, generally around 60 north to the lower 60s south. This moderating air mass will translate to afternoon temperatures into the low-mid 60s under sunny skies.
the upper level ridge axis across the Rocky Mountain region was shifting east and southeast onto the Plains in response to a wave approaching the West Coast and also a wave developing over Southwest Canada. the upper level ridge will continue to push east and southwest while the moisture plume slowly makes its way into parts of Eastern Oklahoma. The result should be warmer overnight temperatures compared last night with much of the CWA in the upper 30s to mid 40s forecast. A few of the normal cold spots in far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas could see lows in the lower 30s as the moisture and winds underneath mostly clear skies will be slow to reach there before sunrise.
no changes to the forecast is needed as high pressure dominates the region's weather. Clouds will also increase Tuesday as a low pressure system moves from the High Plains to the Ozarks.
Cold frontal Passage 1. Upper level ridging is in place and southerly winds are expected to help mix down warmer temps.
High pressure extended this afternoon from Northeast Texas to Central Tennessee with dry air being ushered into Alabama with northerly winds in place.
An upper level ridge axis is currently in place across the Central Plains. A strong cold front will drop southward, with 850mb winds to range from 30-40 kts. Conditions will be cooler Tuesday behind a cold front.
319 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Another dry day is in store for us across South Florida starting with a cool morning with temperatures in the low 60s along the e and west coast metro and upper 50s in the interior. High pressure over The Carolinas will move east shifting winds more east to northeast through mid week.
Upper level trough axis remains over the Gulf of Mexico today as the trough becomes characterized by two separate closed circulations overnight - one over northern FL and the other in the central Gulf. Expect high temperatures to be a bit warmer today than yesterday, given the weaker cool advection, increased thicknesses, and near maximum insolation. Highs will be around 70 in the west to the low to mid 60s in the east. Tonight, the warmer trend continues with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
For Monday expect even warmer temperatures with numerous records likely to fall. Winds begin the morning from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph but increase during the day ahead of a cold front. The transition to cooler temperatures across the Central High Plains Region begins Monday night. becomes more progressive as an upper trough moves east of the Rockies and into the high plains region along with a cold front that sweeps across the forecast area after midnight Monday night. A closed upper low develops in the base of the upper trough over the panhandle region, but moves quickly east across the southern plains on Tuesday as another broad latitude upper trough moves into the Intermountain region Tuesday night.
303 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure over the mid Tennessee valley continues to ridge into SE TX bringing drier air and clear skies to the region. The high will move east today and E-SE winds will develop and bring slightly higher moisture levels back to the area tonight and Tuesday. High moisture levels on Tuesday should yield more cloud cover but warmer 850 temps and increasing heights will yield slightly warmer temperatures.
Winds will be light/variable through tonight with high pressure overhead. Tonight Through Tuesday High pressure has moved over the region from the Plains, and the air mass is very dry. It will not be quite as dry, but south/southwest winds will increase across the Ozarks/Ouachitas as high pressure begins departing. Moisture will begin increasing as the period ends and a new storm/system and cold front approach from the Plains.
315 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will build in behind a cold front and give our area mainly clear skies but chilly air today. As the high moves east, milder air return to the region and remain for much of the week. A northwest flow off the lakes will bring a few clouds to the far northern zones this morning, otherwise high pressure will build into the area bringing mainly clear skies. After a chilly start under clear skies, flow becomes southwesterly on Tuesday bringing milder air while ridging keeps the sun shining.
Quiet WX pattern to start the week as a mid/upr lvl short wave trof over the ern GOMEX/Deep South moves east and pulls a weak anticyclone from the Lwr MS Valley into the Mid Atlc coast.
Attention then shifts to the high temp forecast for today. Models show the potential for a little light pcpn in the late afternoon and early evening time frame, but mainly north of the highway 200 corridor. Temperatures through the period will remain on the warmer side, with high temperatures mainly above freezing.
High pressure is expected across the area early this week.
/issued 244 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017/ Upper heights will remain largely unchanged through Monday, even as an upper ridge traverses the region complete with milder thicknesses. This bodes well for wildfire concerns over all but our extreme W-NW counties where the lowest relative humidities in the upper teens are likely. Both of these fronts will be tied to a compact, but robust upper low tracking east across the northern Panhandle through late afternoon. This feat will be aided by strong cold air advection generating hefty pressure rises of nearly 10mb/3hr, all collocated within a northerly low level jet of 40+ knots nestled on the SW flank of the upper low.
257 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 The core of surface ridging shifting along the spine of the Appalachians coupled with dry northwest flow will maintain clear skies, aside from a few strands of passing cirrus, and late fall warmth across eastern Kentucky. Continually building upper heights will promote further warming today and Tuesday as eastward drifting surface ridging establishes south/southwesterly return flow.
A weak trough aloft passes over the state tonight and Monday. Temperatures will range near or just above normal for Monday with overnight lows a bit cooler than normal most places.
High Plains lee troughing will continue through the overnight. The highest temps might be Tuesday morning and then temperatures will plummet through the day with a non diurnal temperature curve.
1016 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 A dry and mild air mass will dominate the early part of this week as high pressure moves east of our region.
Southerly winds tonight should help to keep the temperatures warmer than last night and the current forecast has this covered. The southerly flow is expected to increase across the area on Monday as stronger low pressure tracks well to our north. Short term is dominated by high pressure retreating to the south and warm advection with the southwesterly winds. The next issues in the forecast is a cold front on Tuesday. Overnight, warmer temperatures from the afternoon will linger their influence after sunset. Some cirrus can be expected to help in keeping the warmer temps in place as well.
Drier cooler air working its way in from the northeast will make for a chilly night in the 40s under a near calm wind and starry skies.
A wedge of dry air over eastern areas nudge further west, with surface dew points commonly in the lower and middle 20s in areas east of I-65. Ridge will slip to the east tomorrow, with weak return flow setting up by the afternoon.
An upper ridge moves across the mid Mississippi and ohio River valley today, ahead of a trough moving across the Rockies.
Clouds will gradually clear tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 60s in most areas. Watch out for a bit of patchy fog given the recent rains, light winds, and cooler temperatures. High pressure dominates the region on a very sunny Thursday. Light winds will only help boost afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s. Overall, looks mainly dry and seasonal with upper level ridge building over the western half of the US.
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data depicted a closed upper low near James Bay with an associated trough trailing southwest into the mid MO Valley. In the low levels, 18z mesoanalysis suggests that the primary surface boundary stretches from central IA through east-central NE before linking with an area of low pressure over north-central KS.
Otherwise, satellite imagery depicting scattered cu across the area while temperatures have warmed into the low 90s at all sites with the exception of the immediate coast. This as a persistent mid-level shear axis which assisted in the development of rains across the forecast area for the earlier portion of the week gives way to high pressure expanding east and southeast from the southwest CONUS.
950 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 A cold front across the central Great Lakes will drop southeast across the region on Thursday as low pressure moves through the lower Ohio Valley.
Upper level ridging just west of the Rockies will build during the next few days and our upper level flow pattern will go from a westerly to a northwesterly pattern. A cold front/wind shift/drier airmass boundary extends from western Lake Superior to a low pressure area in central Kansas. As cooler air filters in this afternoon a few scattered low clouds will form. High pressure will continue to build overnight and Thursday. The following couple days will be dominated by high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft.
646 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Widespread cloud cover and scattered showers have persisted through the day likely in response to a mid/upper trough which is currently pushing through the area this hour. The axis of this trough appears to be over central Iowa and north central and will continue to move east with time. Once these storms move out of the area and the boundary sags south cooler conditions will persist through the rest of the week and the weekend.
An upper level trough approaches the area from the northwest tonight for an increase of inland clouds Thursday morning.
Clouds to the northwest ahead of cold front moving into Ohio Valley late tonight will spread into the region after midnight as skies become partly cloudy but mostly cirrus.
A cold front will begin to approach the Mid State from the NW late in the taf period and be close enough to include a VCTS group at CKV.
The lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms have tempered temperatures significantly this afternoon, only allowing temperatures to reach the lower 80s. The much awaited cold front was situated near Hays, KS northeastward to just south Omaha, NE. Upper ridge remains anchored over the western CONUS into the Plains region with a broad trough in the east.
1122 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will continue to push east of the region overnight. A cold front will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday night.
High pressure in place will keep light winds and seas in place for the next several days with no headlines expected.
855 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Cold front has cleared the forecast area and continues to move south. The models are dry for Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge strengthens and the mean flow turns more southward. Overall, the upper level ridge that dominated the weather pattern will slide further west, eventually taking shape over Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. What does this mean for the Tri-State Region? With the high pressure ridge further west, this means our piece of the High Plains will be under northwest flow aloft. As disturbances move around the high pressure perimeter, storms should develop over the Rockies, spreading east to southeast over the plains. Further, a cold front will move through and more or less remain stationary along to south of I-70, providing a boundary for additional storms to develop along.
/issued 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/ Typical summer pattern in place into this weekend with the upper ridge overhead providing hot temperatures with storms confined to the higher terrain. Midland Intl has only hit 100 degrees once this month which is far from our hottest month on record last July! Not much change through the weekend until the upper ridge weakens and shifts slightly west.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form again Thursday afternoon and early evening, mainly near a cold front that will be crossing Oklahoma. Outflow from showers/thunderstorms may outpace the trough overnight, depending on whether storms can become organized or not. A cold front will push slowly across northern and central Oklahoma tonight through Thursday afternoon.
Meanwhile, an upper trough was gradually starting to deepen over the northeast CONUS. This is supporting a cold front currently moving southeast through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Warm air advection ahead of the cold front will bring a warm front northeast through our area on Thursday.
There is some 850 convergence and the hint of some low level inverted troughing. The big dropoff in 925 temps holds off until Thursday night despite the shift in winds to the northeast but areas closer to the lake will be cooler.
1019 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight. A cold front moves across the area on Thursday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
1027 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast through Thursday.
The upper level high stretching from the southwestern U. The upper level high will suppress precipitation chances, and temperatures tonight and tomorrow will be very similar to what we saw today.
917 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front is located from nern KS into the nwrn Texas Panhandle.
Will see another round of redevelopment tomorrow afternoon as the main area of moisture and the trough does not move much over the next 24 hours.
Low pressure area over northeast part of the state will move to the northeast overnight and into Thursday. Temperatures trending warmer this evening with the exception of the north end of the valley which is slightly cooler than 24 hours ago as of 8 PM.
Some marginal instability existed just above this low level inversion as indicated by mid-level lapse rates of 6.
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border, bringing sunshine with a few fair weather cumulus clouds and calm winds to the state. A corridor of meager high based instability was present in southeastern Montana, possibly into far southwestern North Dakota, aided by dew points that managed to reach into the low 50s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also affect area TAF sites Tomorrow evening as a cold front progresses slowly across the area. /Issued 917 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/ Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front is located from nern KS into the nwrn Texas Panhandle.
Low/mid level low pressure resulted in shower and thunderstorm development in convergent flow this afternoon. Lows will once again fall into the lower to middle 70s.
553 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Cold front has cleared the forecast area and continues to move south. The models are dry for Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge strengthens and the mean flow turns more southward. Overall, the upper level ridge that dominated the weather pattern will slide further west, eventually taking shape over Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. What does this mean for the Tri-State Region? With the high pressure ridge further west, this means our piece of the High Plains will be under northwest flow aloft. As disturbances move around the high pressure perimeter, storms should develop over the Rockies, spreading east to southeast over the plains. Further, a cold front will move through and more or less remain stationary along to south of I-70, providing a boundary for additional storms to develop along.
1035 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Mean ridging can be expected over the region through the period. Moist southerly flow will persists in NE WY ahead of the next impulse with convection redeveloping along a stationary trough there.
Locations along and north of US Highway 54 have the highest pops tonight given proximity to boundaries and MCV. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s. Later tonight, another complex of rain/thunderstorms will develop across Central Missouri as the low level jet overspreads the frontal boundary.
In the mid/upper levels, ridging extends across central and southwest Florida while troughing extends over Georgia into the Florida panhandle. This pattern will hold in place through early Thursday as the ridge sinks slightly farther south over southern Florida. On the surface, the main feature is high pressure located in the Gulf of Mexico. This feature should keep a general onshore flow later today, which would allow for the highest rain chances over the inland counties later this afternoon, but still only in the 30-40 POPs range. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above average with the heat indices.
The axis of the Atlantic ridge will nudge ever closer to the Florida Peninsula, but heating over the peninsula will weaken the gradient around the ridge.
802 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Strong cold front brings thunderstorms Thursday.
With this in mind, have raised lows a few degrees into the lower and middle 60s across southwest Nebraska.
Quasi- zonal flow aloft will persist on the northern fringe of broad/flat upper-level ridging anchored over the southern plains.
Lee side troughing and southerly flow will produce warmer conditions west of the Missouri River than in the remainder of the cwa.
943 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast through Thursday.
Surface dew points out west in the lower to mid 50s in the valleys and well up into the 40s to around 50 in the mountains. The far east where the cloud cover is holding the longest, especially around Natrona County will likely see the smallest cape and thus the lowest chance of any heavier storms.
/Issued 417 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/ Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across Central and Eastern Kansas this afternoon ahead of a cold front sagging southward through the Central Plains. the cold front will continue to make its way southeastward toward the CWA with shower and thunderstorm potential developing late tonight across parts of Northeast Oklahoma. Temperatures overnight should again remain on the warm side with lows in the mid to upper 70s for most locations as dewpoints hold in the low 70s across much of the region. The cold front is expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma during the morning hours Thursday and should remain north of Interstate 40 for much of the day before trying to push southward overnight Thursday night.