Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The latest HRRR/RAP/NAM in decent agreement with timing of the snow starting and location of the high amounts.
High pressure builds into the area in the wake of the rain system's departure, offering a drier but still cool day and finish to the weekend as temperatures recover to the 50s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Strong mid level ridging will remain over the Gulf of Mexico, while upstream to the west, over the Southwest United States, mid level flow will be southwest heading into the ridge, while a short wave trough rides the mid level flow northeast.
An upper level ridge will begin to move east into the region through the overnight period. This will allow cooler air to persist in the region and cause overnight lows ranging from upper single digits to low teens. Cloud cover will increase through the day which will result in slightly cooler temperatures for areas west of the Red River Valley.
A cold front currently extending through western NC and into northeastern GA will continue to move southeastward into the forecast area tonight.
1131 AM MDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft will become southwesterly today as an upper trough approaches the region from the southwest. At the surface this will translate into a tight surface pressure gradient over the forecast area with gusty southeasterly winds developing between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Precipitation will move northward into southwestern and south central South Dakota this afternoon and evening, beginning first as rain over the lower elevations then turning to snow as temperatures cool this evening. Decent lift aloft combined with easterly upslope flow in the lower and mid-levels will combine to support heavy snow accumulations, mainly over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills and the adjacent foothills.
Meso models are catching on this trend with much warmer skew-t's and thus lower snow accumulations. Warmer temperatures can be expected across the southwest zones, closest to the clearing of the stratus upslope deck.
As the core of the cold air and high pressure east of the Continental Divide slide south tonight, we are expecting another surge of wind with colder air.
By the end of the weekend, a broad upper level ridge will be centered over the Central US as an upper level low positions itself off the Pacific NW Coast. The progression of this trough will shape the weather for the upcoming week.
The mid/upper-level ridge weakens a bit through the rest of the week, with temperatures moderating some, but still remaining warm for this time of year. High pressure will keep fairly light easterly winds in place through the next several days, with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds onshore each afternoon.
Dry but cooler weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure quickly builds across the Ohio Valley. A low pressure system is expected to push through the Tennessee River Valley on Saturday and Saturday Night. This will bring chances for rain and snow showers to Central Indiana as the low passes.
High pressure nosing in from the west northwest making for a nice day today. The cold front is pushing through the Lake Cumberland region early this morning, where a narrow rain band is moving east. Temperatures will fall into the 40s to lower 50s this morning behind the front, but recover slightly into the low to mid 50s this afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies. Tonight, low amplitude ridging will remain in place aloft. Weak low pressure will develop eastward over the southern Plains. An elevated warm front will lift back north over the region early Saturday, helping to saturate the mid levels.
Deep layer ridging will prevail through tonight, with a frontal boundary stalled just north of the Tri-State region.
403 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge continues to shift east and has emerged over the western Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile an upper level low is moving eastward across Ontario with an associated trough digging south across the New England states. Upstream a second upper level low is descending down from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low to mid level high pressure is taking shape across the northeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, across the Lower and Middle Keys a weak cloud line has developed.
Ahead of the upper trough, small waves of energy have produced light precipitation in central and southern Kansas this morning and afternoon. Additional pieces of energy will lift across the area ahead of the trough, producing rain showers this afternoon. Dry air at the low levels may inhibit precipitation especially in eastern portions of the area until better lift and low level saturation occur. Highs will only reach the low 40s on Saturday with temperatures falling into the low 30s Saturday night. Bottom line for the mid to longer range forecast is that there will be several chances of precipitation across the area as a western trough feature becomes more established and is slow to advance east.
Temperatures trended slightly cooler by just a degree or 2 earlier than initially thought so made the adjustments to the rain/snow changeover earlier, thus bumping snowfall totals in some locations.
308 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 A lobe of high pressure will move north of the region this evening before a reinforcing cold front, moving across the Great Lakes, allows another stronger high in from the northern Plains. The gradient between this high and low pressure developing over the southern Plains Saturday will force a baroclinic zone to develop east to west from the OK/KS border to the KY/TN border. Highs tomorrow will depend somewhat on how far north that warm front gets, but for now readings in the lower 40s are likely in our far northern zones.
Small accumulations are expected on grassy surfaces, but temperatures above freezing should limit the amount of snow that collects on the ground.
Short wave trof will be moving along a tightening baroclinic zone draped across the central MS Valley region on Saturday. With low level dry air already in place and getting reinforced on Saturday as winds turn to the northeast as upstream high pressure builds farther into the northern CONUS, will hold off on introducing any small pops in far southern CWA. Other issue is the low level winds will turn to the northeast late tonight and Saturday morning. Held off on any flurry/sprinkles due to drier low levels at this point, but soundings are showing some deepening of the low level moisture by the lakeshore Saturday night.
The low level moisture will continue moving into the RGV from the SE this evening and tonight. /issued 247 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Strong mid level ridging will remain over the Gulf of Mexico, while upstream to the west, over the Southwest United States, mid level flow will be southwest heading into the ridge, while a short wave trough rides the mid level flow northeast.
515 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Satellite imagery nicely illustrates the position of today's low pressure system and its cyclonic circulation, currently spinning in east-central Utah. The upper-level closed low will continue to break into an open wave, sliding northeast across the CWA this evening. The next low pressure system spinning off the Pacific NW and its southerly track will help maintain a warming trend over the next several days, with minimal chance for precipitation. Anticipate above average temperatures, climbing another 5 to 10 degrees warmer by midweek with seasonable overnight lows.
Much drier air is in place in the low levels and surface than previously forecasted, and is evident by the 00Z OHX sounding as well as dewpoints around the area in the upper 20s to low 30s. Additional moisture will eventually saturate the low levels and allow for showers to move in from the west overnight, with likely pops for the western 2/3 of the mid state by mid morning.
An upper level ridge will move over the area overnight. An upper level ridge will begin to move east into the region through the overnight period. This will allow cooler air to persist in the region and cause overnight lows ranging from upper single digits to low teens. Cloud cover will increase through the day which will result in slightly cooler temperatures for areas west of the Red River Valley.
Decent wind shear aloft also aided in the formation of light freezing drizzle/freezing rain. so expect any freezing pcpn to turn over to all frozen pcpn by 03z across Campbell Co. The eastern portions of the central and southern Black Hills, esp the Custer State park to Hill City area will see up to 12 inches of snow, with 5 to 9 inches from the higher elevations of the foothills zones west seeing warning level snows.
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A cold front, south of a TVR-JAN-MEI line, will become stationary this evening and begin moving back to the north Saturday morning. As for Saturday, with the warm front lifting ever farther north into eastern OK to the Mid- Mississippi Valley, only limited rain chances are expected within our CWA. With ridging over the region, the best chances for this activity will remain across the northern part of the forecast area.
Longer trajectories over cooler water will support a higher threat of dense sea fog. Some guidance is showing the possibility of some -ra developing southeast of the Highway 56/69 corridor late in the day and toward evening as a weak disturbance embedded in the sw flow aloft moves into the region.
707 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday, to bring diminishing winds, and seasonable temperatures.
830 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Light freezing drizzle has turned to all frozen pcpn in KGCC, so have removed from the wx grids. Decent wind shear aloft also aided in the formation of light freezing drizzle/freezing rain. so expect any freezing pcpn to turn over to all frozen pcpn by 03z across Campbell Co. The eastern portions of the central and southern Black Hills, esp the Custer State park to Hill City area will see up to 12 inches of snow, with 5 to 9 inches from the higher elevations of the foothills zones west seeing warning level snows.
/issued 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020/ Surface analysis places a cold front from the Appalachians back through Central Alabama/Mississippi, Northern Louisiana then back into Eastern Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate light returns over the Mid-South but likely not reaching the ground while rain showers are occurring further west over western sections of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the 50s at most locations except over North Mississippi where temperatures are currently in the lower 60s. Short term models and radar/observational trends indicate rain showers will gradually return to the Mid-South tonight as the aforementioned cold front moves back north as a warm front Saturday into Saturday night.
A mix of rain and snow is expected mainly south of Route 24 on Saturday, with no impacts expected as highs will be above freezing. Generally clear skies have allowed highs to climb into the 40s this afternoon, but we will see temps fall back near freezing for the night before clouds increase from the south in advance of the next wave passing mainly south of the area. Winds will also back more towards out of the northeast ahead of an advancing warm front after starting the period out between the easterly and southerly directions.
811 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday, to bring diminishing winds, and seasonable temperatures.
647 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Things will remain quiet through the short term, with seasonable temperatures and dry weather as a ridge of high pressure drops in from the northwest then slowly slides east through the weekend.
Currently IFR VIS w/FG has set in behind a cold front at MAF and HOB and gradually improvent is likely tonight as -TSRA move through remaining TAF sites. Storms and attendant threats will largely be determined by a cold front that will be located INVOF Pecos River and its potential to move n as a warm front into the overnight. We are also concerned that instability could be maximized in the Lower Trans Pecos and the Big Bend area, there are lots of vacationers down at BBNP and we have increased PoPs there. The cold front will surge back s late Sat night-Sun AM setting up SUN PM to possibly be much cooler (NAM12 has highs in the 40s for much of the PB!).
Rain and snow will taper off by early morning as a low pressure system moves east of the area.
High pressure will remain near the region resulting in mainly light easterly winds with some enhanced afternoon onshore winds with the gulf breeze each day.
Isolated showers continue this afternoon behind a cold front that has pushed south of our region. Temperatures will continue to drop into the low 50s, potentially upper 40s, by early tomorrow morning. Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will continue through the short term period as a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula region lifts to an open wave and traverses the Southern Plains. The Gulf ridging will approach near-record heights at 500 mb, but due to the stalled boundary, the warmer temperatures will remain elusive this time around.
Widespread rainfall will overspread the area from the southwest after midnight tonight in response strengthening moisture advection centered near the 850-hPa warm front, midlevel vorticity advection, and upper- level jet support. In this areas, the rain should mix in with and changeover to snow by early Saturday morning as temperatures cool to just above the freezing mark.
612 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 (This evening through Saturday) A cold front over central Texas will stall this evening, then move slowly north as a warm front into tomorrow. Lots of moisture flowing northeast over the low-level cold air will bring widespread rain to the region tonight and tomorrow.
Northern and central Nevada will experience breezy conditions with intermittent light showers and somewhat cooler temperatures over the weekend. A strong Pacific low pressure system will slowly track south along the West Coast producing adverse winter storm conditions in the Sierra Nevada mountains west of Reno. Northern and central Nevada will experience breezy conditions with intermittent light showers and somewhat cooler temperatures over the weekend.
A lobe of high pressure will move north of the region this evening before a reinforcing cold front, moving across the Great Lakes, allows another stronger high in from the northern Plains. The gradient between this high and low pressure developing over the southern Plains Saturday will force a baroclinic zone to develop east to west from the OK/KS border to the KY/TN border. Highs tomorrow will depend somewhat on how far north that warm front gets, but for now readings in the lower 40s are likely in our far northern zones.
A strong Pacific low pressure system will slowly track south along the West Coast producing adverse winter storm conditions in the Sierra Nevada mountains west of Reno. Northern and central Nevada will experience breezy conditions with intermittent light showers and somewhat cooler temperatures over the weekend.
Rain chances will gradually return late tonight through tomorrow as a cold front lifts back north as a warm front. /issued 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020/ Surface analysis places a cold front from the Appalachians back through Central Alabama/Mississippi, Northern Louisiana then back into Eastern Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate light returns over the Mid-South but likely not reaching the ground while rain showers are occurring further west over western sections of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the 50s at most locations except over North Mississippi where temperatures are currently in the lower 60s. Short term models and radar/observational trends indicate rain showers will gradually return to the Mid-South tonight as the aforementioned cold front moves back north as a warm front Saturday into Saturday night.
An anomalous cold upper low will bring the potential for widespread precipitation, heavy mountain snow, gusty winds, and significantly cooler temperatures this weekend. Showers will develop over the higher elevations this evening, then increase and spread across the region into Saturday morning.
The highest accumulations still look to be around the Interstate 90 corridor where the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
825 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 High pressure will build in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight, keeping our weather dry. These clouds, along with veering surface winds, will keep lows in check, despite very dry air in the low levels. Low clouds cleared out today as a cold front dropped well south of the region, and ridging began to build in from the west. Model data shows temps getting down near freezing Saturday night before precip winds down, especially over the northern end of the forecast area. Should anyone hit freezing, it would result in freezing rain.
1048 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday leading to diminishing winds and seasonable temperatures.
A little warmer tonight for most areas and continued dry as a low level subsidence inversion builds directly over the local forecast area. Coolest locations are expected across the Suwannee River Valley and I-75 corridor toward Trail Ridge where low/mid 50s are likely. Low temperatures Tonight will be in upper 50s to lower 60s, with high temperatures Saturday in the lower-mid 80s inland se GA, mid- upper 80s inland ne FL, near 80 coast.
1037 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the central Gulf of Mexico basin. Surface observations reveal only a few shallow, low-altitude cumulus clouds moving westward in the trade-wind flow and some wispy cirrus aloft moving south-southeastward around the deep anticyclone centered to our west.
753 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday, to bring diminishing winds, and seasonable temperatures.
951 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday, to bring diminishing winds, and seasonable temperatures.
621 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Fog has encompassed much of the FA with CDS having the highest VIS of 2SM. With the low level wind profiles, there will be opportunity for rotating storms which could produce hail.
752 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 High pressure is forecast to maintain quiet weather through the TAF period. High pressure continues to keep the weather quiet through the overnight hours. High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters through early this weekend keeping a stationary front over the Southeastern United States.
The main upper low center had just crossed the Colorado River and was rolling east roughly along I-10. In the southeast third, sunshine and cold air aloft under the low center had led to a tiny bit of CAPE, which was supporting development of cumulus clouds and a few showers. As the low moves away overnight, showers in the southeast should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, and the remnant band should continue to erode, leaving partly cloudy skies across much of the region.
However, with the higher cloud bases and drier air near the surface, QPF will remain light as most of this precipitation is evaporating before it reaches the surface. Otherwise, expect overcast conditions to continue, which will help to keep temperatures in the low to mid 50s for most of the night. Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will continue through the short term period as a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula region lifts to an open wave and traverses the Southern Plains. The Gulf ridging will approach near-record heights at 500 mb, but due to the stalled boundary, the warmer temperatures will remain elusive this time around.
Forecast looks on track with winds picking up this evening ahead of cold front that will enter the area overnight and pass through much of the area on Saturday morning. A couple of inches of snow in the northern mountain valleys near McCall still looks on track, with 4 to 6 inches over the higher mountains.
A high pressure ridge persists over Central FL to the Northern Gulf Coast. High pressure building in from the Gulf of Mexico will keep a cold front moving through the Deep South from making it southward into central Florida. Highs climbing to the mid to upper 80s for interior locations, while an afternoon seabreeze caps coastal areas to the low 80s again. Favorable boating conditions continue, as a low level ridge persists over the area.
With the potential for stronger lift focusing along the Highway 20 corridor after 09Z, will extend the advisory into the Sioux City area. Currently, a wealth of dry air in place with dew points in the lower 20s.
Models have come in to line better with regard to mixing out the cold air tomorrow and it looks like sunshine, deeper mixing, and warmer temps will be the case from roughly Boise City to Clarendon and southwest.
352 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Deep layer high pressure sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico through Florida early this morning.
223 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 High pressure surface and aloft will hold across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida through Sunday. The southern extent of the trough will suppress the U/L ridge currently over the forecast area just south of Florida by mid week. Downstream, this will aid in pumping up the ridge back over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with benign conditions expected each day.
1038 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Satellite imagery nicely illustrates the position of today's low pressure system and its cyclonic circulation, currently spinning in east-central Utah. The upper-level closed low will continue to break into an open wave, sliding northeast across the CWA this evening. The next low pressure system spinning off the Pacific NW and its southerly track will help maintain a warming trend over the next several days, with minimal chance for precipitation. Anticipate above average temperatures, climbing another 5 to 10 degrees warmer by midweek with seasonable overnight lows.
Mid level accent is forming a band of elevated showers over northern Kansas and into northwest Missouri, but dry air in the lower levels is inhibiting most of this precipitation from hitting the ground. This frontogenesis will weaken overnight and move northward into Iowa, but will be replaced by the lower level warm front that will provide added moisture in the low levels and forcing from below. This low level boundary will likely be the main focal point for the majority of our precipitation over the region, with the strongest omega values seen along and south of HWY 36. Soundings also indicate that a warm layer above freezing will push into our region and stall just north of the Missouri River.
207 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 The closed low off the California coast yesterday at this time has openend up and shifted eastward into the high plains early this morning. A low level jet at 850 mb was also in place from the south-southwest which was pumping in some moisture in the lower levels above the surface. This moisture was overrunning cooler and drier air at the surface and so the precipitation over the area has been light initially. 6 inches will be possible with the higher amounts southeast of I44. The cooler air mass at the surface will remain in place with an east to northeast surface wind and with clouds and rain all day, the temperatures will be quite chilly with readings from the upper 30s in central MO to the low 50s in the southwest corner of MO.
Overall synoptic pattern remains relatively static as the Coastal Bend remains between an upper ridge over the western Gulf and a progressive pattern of upper disturbances forecast to move across west and central Texas.