Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
445 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A Rex block over the Great Plains is responsible for the ridge of high pressure currently over the region and large low centered just leeward of the Southern Rockies. This high pressure will begin to break down as it begins an eastward trek. An eastern Gulf of Alaska low with an associated trough nearing the western US coast will come onshore today to help nudge the blocking pattern east. This Pacific trough is expecting to pinch off the parent low and move inland through the southwestern US and interact with the Central US low.
711 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Aviation - Two Low pressure centers bring chances for precip this week There are two low pressure areas to watch this week.
High pressure system to the northeast has already switched winds easterly across the CWA. The lowest RH and the highest winds are not quite aligned for today, so will hold off on any fire highlights for the time being. The mentioned large low pressure system will nudge precipitation closer and closer today through tonight, but overall keeps the bulk of precip to our south. There is also a small potential for freezing rain with this system, although confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast.
500 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A quickly moving closed low system continues its transition across the four corners region. As it continues to expand and make its progression near the high plains and eventually the ArkLaMiss, rain chances will begin to increase mainly across the MS Delta region this afternoon and will become more widespread later tonight. Expect highs for the metro region to reach or slightly above 80 degrees today with lows in the lower 60s area wide.
439 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A low pressure system slowly making its way across western KS is bringing precipitation across much of the region. The low is expected to continue its slow progression across KS throughout the day today. As it does so, the pressure gradient tightens as the it pushes up again a strong upper level ridge to the east. As the low migrates east, strong mid and low level convergence entices the development of widespread showers filling in much of E KS and W MO. The low finally moves through the area Monday.
Slightly cooler, but more so drier, air will be found on the cool side of the boundary, yielding around a 10-15 degree spread in low temperatures NW to SE. The front is expected to remain quasi-stationary through the day MON, before retreating to the north MON night into TUE ahead of another approaching upper trof. This trof is forecast to be a little stronger and track a little farther to the south than its predecessor, and will have no trouble driving a cold front through the area on WED, accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
The positioning of this low level boundary will be key for dayshift to monitor.
/issued 335 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021/ Upper level low that brought several rounds of severe weather the past few days will finally move northeast of the forecast area today. Even with the downsloping winds, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday due to the front that moved through the region and continuation of cooler air aloft. Short wave ridging will move overhead on Monday ahead of a small but strong low. This low will dive southeastward from northern California to southern California during the day on Monday.
Another windy day is in store Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front.
Thus, inclusion of the mention of drizzle/freezing drizzle, through most of the uncertainty regarding impacts associated with ice is the result of readings expected right around the freezing mark.
Expect some improvements by late in the TAF period as a cold front moves east through the state. A slow moving upper closed low to the W/NW early this morning will gradually move east by tonight. though this upper low will be slowly weakening over time as it moves closer to AR. A cold front will move east into the state by this afternoon and evening. the best chances will be this afternoon/evening ahead of the cold front. and along south of the aforementioned nearly stalled boundary as it attempts to lift north as a warm front. with some threat for tornadoes as well given the low level SHR and favorable curved hodographs. As the cold front pushes east.
We are monitoring the clearing over southwest parts of Oklahoma where sufficient warming into the lower 70s is eroding the cap. Overall convergence in the warm sector and near warm front is weak at the moment, but convergence appears to be increasing some from near Erick, eastward toward Anadarko.
A short wave trough associated with the first low will just be completing its journey through the Ohio Valley at the start of the period.
As weak energy ripples through the upper flow ahead of the tightly wound low pressure system, may see some scattered showers develop over the area. However, with a relatively dry airmass in place in the lower levels, precipitation may struggle to reach the ground. Low pressure near the Ozarks Monday will pull moisture northward, interacting with a warm front lifting from Tennessee into Kentucky and resulting in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Otherwise, the surface cold front remains located across northern GA/AL this morning with some light precipitation along the H85 frontal axis across the central valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 52 66 51 67 / 10 10 80 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 49 66 48 67 / 20 20 60 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 62 47 65 48 66 / 20 20 70 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 41 59 41 65 / 20 30 60 70 30.
Snow will taper off across southern Minnesota early Monday afternoon and likely turn to drizzle or freezing drizzle due to the loss of ice aloft. Surface temperatures in the lower 30s during the day in mid March should prevent ice accumulation. As the band of snow reaches the I-94 corridor mid morning, surface temperatures will likely reach the low to mid 30s so it isn't certain travel conditions will deteriorate substantially unless the rates exceed a half inch per hour. Any snow and freezing drizzle will come to end Monday night.
The closed upper low has finally moved into the central Rockies per the 08Z water vapor imagery. As the upper low propagates east into western KS, a band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to push west to east across the forecast area with most areas picking up around an inch or rain with isolated higher amounts. Temps the last couple days have ended up being cooler than the forecast thanks to clouds and precip. However the upper low will remain over the region for Monday with plenty of moisture and another lobe of vorticity rotating through northeast KS. Models have come into better agreement with the next closed low moving through the plains mid week.
/JNE/ A quickly moving closed low system continues its transition across the four corners region. As it continues to expand and make its progression near the high plains and eventually the ArkLaMiss, rain chances will begin to increase mainly across the MS Delta region this afternoon and will become more widespread later tonight. Expect highs for the metro region to reach or slightly above 80 degrees today with lows in the lower 60s area wide.
308 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The infamous midlevel low pressure is currently located over southeast Colorado, and is expected to loop around on it's self before exiting on Monday. Moisture continues to wrap around the low and spread into our area from the north as the large-scale forcing persists. The warmer temperatures have limited the amount of snow accumulation in some of the lower valleys. High temperatures today will be similar if not cooler than yesterday due to the core of the low and expansive cloud cover expected. Even with that there will be enough warmth in the lower valleys for rain and or a mix.
655 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front passage later today.
522 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The infamous midlevel low pressure is currently located over southeast Colorado, and is expected to loop around on it's self before exiting on Monday. Moisture continues to wrap around the low and spread into our area from the north as the large-scale forcing persists. The warmer temperatures have limited the amount of snow accumulation in some of the lower valleys. High temperatures today will be similar if not cooler than yesterday due to the core of the low and expansive cloud cover expected. Even with that there will be enough warmth in the lower valleys for rain and or a mix.
These easterly winds and drier air will continue to impede the northern progress of precip lifting towards the area tonight as the upper low bringing record snows to the front range of the Rockies slides east into the plains. Mondays highs will be cooler yet as more clouds limit daytime heating with values in the upper 30s south and low to mid 40s north.
920 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front passage later today.
The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring the chance of precipitation to the Inland Northwest overnight into Monday morning.
Currently, the highest chances of light rain exist across central MO this morning, coinciding with the strong 850-hPa frontogenesis. During this evening, an arcing band of rain will begin to overspread the region and progress northeastward overnight along an advancing, occluding warm front. Rainfall could be heavy at times in the presence of vigorous upper-level divergence at the leading edge of the approaching closed low and strong low-level isentropic lift coinciding with a corridor of PW in excess of 1". During Monday, a negatively tilted upper-level trough will pivot across the Midwest, manifesting from deformation of the closed low. A few thunderstorms could be capable of producing small hail with 0-3 km shear around 40 kt and freezing level lowering to nearly 800 hPa.
911 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 High pressure continues across the area keeping warm and dry conditions in place. Highs are on track to reach into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
529 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 There is just a small chance of rain today driven by weak mid level support within a persistent mid level ridge. A large upper low to our west will broaden and eject energy northeast across MO and IL later tonight into Monday.
716 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A cold front will sweep south across Pennsylvania this morning, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region later today and Monday.
Cold northeast flow will continue to funnel into the area tonight around a large arctic high pressure system that settles through Ontario and the northern Great Lakes in the wake of the passing cold front. The attention then turns to the evolution of an upper low pressure system over the plains as another upper low digs into the western CONUS and helps dislodge the plains low from the high plains of Colorado to the Nebraska/South Dakota region from today into Monday night. As this upper low occludes over the plains and shears eastward into the region, expect an arc of light precipitation to work into the central Great Lakes as remnant occluded front lifts into the area.
Water vapour had upper low in far south central CO. Snow falling in the higher elevations with rain on the plains. Effect of upper low main concern. Today/tonight, main upper low will meander into eastern CO by 00z Monday and then central KS by 12z Monday as it weakens, elongates, and spawns a weaker upper low over the NE panhandle. Kept the higher Black Hills amounts given upslope enhancement.
Low level flow is weaker tonight with upper ridge in place so less activity north of the front this morning. A deep upper low will push across the southern plains as the associated cold/occluded front pushes into the Mid-South overnight.
308 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A deep low pressure system continue to drift slowing east across the central Rockies. The highest snow amounts are still expected in the higher terrain around Story and the Bighorn Mountains, where totals of 5 to 10 inches are still expected. The lower elevations, especially south of Sheridan, should still see 2 to 4 inches. A cold front moves into the region Monday evening, lifting a fairly moist atmosphere, provided by the strong upper, now exiting eastward. Highs Monday are expected to be a bit warmer than today, with clearing skies, and some degree of prefrontal warming.
The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled falling heights at all SGLs, so although mean layer ridging dominates, it is losing ground to the storm system over the Plains. The forecast calls for highs in the lower 80s and nil rain chances. High pressure will persist over the western North Atlantic for the next several days and be reinforced early this week.
1002 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Another warm day today with deep layer ridging in place. Today will continue the warm and dry trend with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
701 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A low pressure system slowly making its way across western KS is bringing precipitation across much of the region. The low is expected to continue its slow progression across KS throughout the day today. As it does so, the pressure gradient tightens as the it pushes up again a strong upper level ridge to the east. As the low migrates east, strong mid and low level convergence entices the development of widespread showers filling in much of E KS and W MO. The low finally moves through the area Monday.
639 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A frontal boundary will remain south of the CSRA as high pressure continues to ridge in from the north. Higher chance of rain arrives late Monday and Monday night as cold air damming develops and a low pressure system moves northeast from the Plains. Cooler temperatures expected on Monday with slow warming and unsettled conditions through the end of the week. Further north across the Pee Dee, clouds and northeasterly winds will keep highs only in the lower 70s. By tonight, additional cooler air should be pushing southward into the area. Limited chance for any rainfall overnight due to shallow moisture, limited dynamics, and cooler conditions overnight. Complex scenario setting up Monday as high pressure build southward through the Mid Atlantic States and a cold front moves through the western Gulf States.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021/ The large upper level low that brought the severe weather yesterday will finally move into the Great Plains today bringing strong winds to the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as well as the adjacent plains. The low will move northeast Monday giving a brief respite from the recent windy conditions, however another low will quickly move east across the southwestern U.
Low pressure at the surface is also centered near the Colorado/Kansas border, and will shift east through Kansas today and tomorrow, weakening as it moves. Today's high temperatures range across the area from the low 30s in the northern Panhandle to the low 40s in southwest Nebraska. Temperatures at the surface will fall to just below freezing across the area tonight, which will support a transition from rain to snow deeper into southwest and central Nebraska. Another upper level low will develop over South Dakota on Monday night, moving east. An upper level trough will dig into the Southwestern U.
Also, leaning toward increasing winds across the Johnson and Natrona counties, Bighorn Basin and through the Wind Corridor as the N/NE flow behind the low could create some downsloping and mountain channeling of winds.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The cold front is currently working into Cameron County. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s to near 60 degrees across the mid to lower RGV.
Latest surface analysis places a 1000mb occluded low near the Oklahoma Panhandle with a cold front arcing southeast along the Oklahoma and Arkansas border. The cold front is expected to move east over the next several hours and arrive in the Mid-South around midnight before totally occluding. Current mesoanalysis shows no appreciable SBCAPE across the region at this point, as dewpoints have mixed down into the lower 50s this afternoon. The severe threat continues to look marginal tonight, as instability will be low and forcing along the cold front will be rather weak. The cold front is expected to slowly move east overnight through late Monday morning. The aforementioned front is expected to wash out just south of the CWA tomorrow afternoon, as the upper low shears apart and lifts north of the region.
232 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A very strong closed low pressure system sits over eastern Colorado early this afternoon, with warm conveyor belt precipitation beginning to expand across the southern half of South Dakota. A very dry air mass exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which combined with the stronger winds, has and will continue to result in near critical fire weather conditions through the remainder of the afternoon. The highest amounts are expected in western Dickey County. It will be much cooler and mostly cloudy across the state on Monday, with highs around 35 to 45.
Canadian high pressure will continue to influence the region today and tonight, before exiting to the east tomorrow. Highs will range from the middle 30s across central WI to the lower 40s across the far north. Until the lower level saturate and ice becomes more plentiful, it's likely that there will be little hitting the ground. In fact, some of the higher resolution models are producing very little precipitation across northeast Wisconsin.
Northern portions of the CWA may see some light rain in the afternoon and evening as the low pressure system shifts north of the area.
416 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front passage.
325 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The main weather maker for the Florida Keys is the deep layer ridging centered over the extreme Western Caribbean. High pressure persists to the north of the Bahamas, although a much stronger high pressure system (1042 mb) is spilling southeast through the Great Lakes. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dewpoints approaching 70. Cumulus congestus is trying to percolate across South Florida and Cuba, although the low level inversion is preventing any deep convection.
101 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front passage later today.
Mid and upper level cloudiness will increase from the west Monday afternoon but any rain associated with an approaching cold front should occur after 18z Mon. Today will continue the warm and dry trend with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Expect warmer lows tonight in areas that experience more winds, like the Big Country (lows in the upper 40s to around 50) with cooler lows in locations with weaker winds (lows in the low to mid 40s). Expect some high clouds to bring mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies Monday, with warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge and the dry and warm southwest to west winds, expect warm high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s Monday.
MORNING DISCUSSION: A Rex block over the Great Plains is responsible for the ridge of high pressure currently over the region and large low centered just leeward of the Southern Rockies. This high pressure will begin to break down as it begins an eastward trek. An eastern Gulf of Alaska low with an associated trough nearing the western US coast will come onshore today to help nudge the blocking pattern east. This Pacific trough is expecting to pinch off the parent low and move inland through the southwestern US and interact with the Central US low.
310 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 H50 short wave energy will eject northeast into the Mid MS River Valley tonight, bringing an associated surface warm front with it.
Otherwise there remains some cirrus streaming in ahead of the low pressure system well to our southwest. Cold northeast flow will continue to funnel into the area tonight around a large arctic high pressure system that settles through Ontario and the northern Great Lakes in the wake of the passing cold front. The attention then turns to the evolution of an upper low pressure system over the plains as another upper low digs into the western CONUS and helps dislodge the plains low from the high plains of Colorado to the Nebraska/South Dakota region from today into Monday night. As this upper low occludes over the plains and shears eastward into the region, expect an arc of light precipitation to work into the central Great Lakes as remnant occluded front lifts into the area.
142 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Aviation - Two Low pressure centers bring chances for precip this week There are two low pressure areas to watch this week.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue behind the front in association with expansive upper low currently centered over far southeast Colorado.
This due as the peninsula remains under a high pressure area. A ridge will stretch from eastern U. On Mon, it will be slightly warmer than today, with temps rising to the mid 80s across the interior and lower 80s along the coast.
/Issued 1041 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021/ Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to sweep across eastern Oklahoma this morning in association with a Pacific cold front.
The cold front is currently located from Lufkin to Houston, where a narrow line of showers has formed.
After above average temperatures and sunny skies today, expect changes this evening starting with increasing cloud cover as the next trough approaches. The current organization of the trough is projected to become split and washed out over the Northern Rockies.
257 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Mild weather continues today and into tomorrow, with a cooler airmass moving into the area on Monday.
Still anticipating the higher amounts of snow, in the 3 to near 6 inch range, to be across the southern half of the CWA, and will stick with the Winter Weather Advisory for this evening through early Monday afternoon. There continues to be indications of the possibility of some light freezing precipitation, mainly drizzle, on the back side of the system on Monday, but at this time impacts look negligible as it would not last very long at any one location.
There is just a small chance of rain today driven by weak mid level support within a persistent mid level ridge. A large upper low to our west will broaden and eject energy northeast across MO and IL later tonight into Monday.
233 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 An upper level low located over eastern Colorado will move into the plains later this evening. This upper level low brought severe weather to the area yesterday and high winds today. After the aforementioned upper lvl low kicks out of the area Monday we will return to weak ridging.
The cold front is nearing CXO and DWH, and is already past CLL and UTS.
227 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Upper level low pressure over southeast Colorado expected to edge east later tonight and further east Monday. And the low-end windy to breezy conditions this evening will trend lighter late tonight. Monday will see the storm system track northeast and a low amplitude upper level high pressure ridge axis will translate toward the area during the afternoon.
The cold front will continue eastward this afternoon, coming to a halt over the offshore waters tonight keeping only isolated showers over the waters. Light northerly winds behind the front will bring in cooler, drier air to bring low temps down to the upper 40s over northern counties, to the mid 50s southward and along the coast. The boundary will retreat northward as a warm front through the day on Monday, ushering in warm, moist air inland. Highs on Monday will range from the low 70s near the coast where clouds are more pronounced, to the mid 80s over the western and northwestern Brush Country where mostly sunny skies increase surface heating.