Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALREADY INTO NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND AS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE CENTERED OVER OHIO AT MID AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AND CERTAINLY BY MIDNIGHT WITH QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. AS RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LOW DIVES DOWN THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA IN THE OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING THIS WAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN U. AT THE SURFACE A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPS ALOFT ARE VERY COLD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BIAS BY NUDGING TEMPS TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
WILL SEE NO MORE THAT SOME CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING NW WINDS LIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES AGAIN RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS A MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER EAST COAST TROUGH.
THE LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS EXITING MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN WYOMING REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR REGION.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL UP IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AT KCYS RIGHT NOW ARE MORE RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW THAN THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
516 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE DEFORMATION FIELD AROUND THE UPPER GYRE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SHOULD REORIENT ITSELF RATHER RADICALLY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE RIDGES.
MIDWEST UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO ARE FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS KENTUCKY.
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS N-S ORIRENTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER AS A BROAD RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
The results will be continued benign but a bit cooler weather.
A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK.
The increasing moisture and lack of calm winds will keep lows warmer than the last few nights, with lows in the 50s expected. Upper level ridge will remain in place for the weekend across West Central Texas, while the upper level low slides into Southern California.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
358 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 A RIDGE AT 500 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND A THERMAL TROUGH ON THE COAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
656 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 UPPER LOW WILL BE PULLING AWAY TONIGHT TAKING THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REPLACE IT FOR FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. OTRWS SFC RIDGING TO BLD QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE WRN OH VALLEY W/SUBSTANTIAL LL THERMAL MODERATION XPCD OUTSIDE LAKE SHADOW. MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN WAKE OF TODAY'S UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
627 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ORGNL FCST: LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MARITIMES WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH COOLER MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TN. A DOMINATE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SURFACE TO ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE TOMORROW A COOLER DAY. BUT AM STILL CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN MT INTO SASKA CANADA. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH VERY CLEAN WEATHER. AS THE LOWEST 10KFT ARE QUITE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY SOUTHWARD. WITH GUSTS OVER 30 ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOW RANGING IN THE LOW/MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD. BRINGING ANOTHER DOSE OF DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO END THIS WORK WEEK.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT AND SUN IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
314 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015 19Z water vapor shows a closed low over IL and a mid level ridge centered over AZ. At the surface, weak ridging extended from the upper Midwest through eastern KS. However this trough axis is also forecast to become less defined as the day progresses. Increasing mid level clouds may limit insolation across the north enough to keep highs in the lower 70s.
1233 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR WEST AND LOWEST EAST.
151 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. WITH HEIGHT RISES SIGNALING A WEAKENING TREND FOR THE UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN TAKE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
1236 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SE TOWARDS NC/VA REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. AS THE LOW DIPS SE. CAPE VALUES ~200 J/KG AND TERRAIN IN NE AL THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG/BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE N.
348 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DRAPED W-E ACROSS CENTRAL AND S TX. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FRI ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FRI NIGHT'S LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND ONSHORE WINDS ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX.
The low will propagate over central and eastern KY this evening. Rainfall intensity and coverage will slowly diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating and as the upper low moves eastward.
238 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS CLOSED LOW DIVES SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES FRIDAY.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE SAT AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA BUT LATE IN THE DAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN. AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT W EXPANDS EWD.
758 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, THIS WILL INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TODAY. SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE SHORT TERM /AND INTO LONG RANGE FOR THAT MATTER/ CONSISTS OF STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN PLAINS. WITH A LEAST MODEST TROUGHS OVER BOTH COASTS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS DOMINATED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
WHICH WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS AGAIN FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER LOWS TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM OK TO NRN AL. A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
REST OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SOME DRIFT INTO VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.
ON SUNDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. MOIST BAND AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NOW PASSING ACROSS SRN ID.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT A NARROW SHARPENING MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS POKES SOUTHWARDS TO NORTH FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. DOES SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES.
1231 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER CLOUDY LANDSCAPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID-DAY SHOULD WARM THE MID-LEVELS HOWEVER. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE FLOW AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 69 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 20.
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SD AND NORTHEAST WY. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION MOVES ACROSS AS AN OPEN WAVE LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST WY WILL ALSO MAKE THIS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS.
1233 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH.
1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS REMAINS IN CONTROL.
PARTICULARLY AT KDHT AND KGUY AS NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT PASSES KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 06Z SUNDAY AND 11Z SUNDAY RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SW FLOW IN THE MID-UPR LEVELS WHICH WILL TAP NICELY INTO THE MONSOON PLUME AS EVIDENT BY H7 THETA-E ADVECTION/RIDGING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. WENT A BIT COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE POKING UP OVER THE REGION. THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
745 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AND DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT.
716 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH.
701 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER NORTHERN UTAH DUE TO THE PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
1046 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 249 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015/ MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND.
1009 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ABOUT THE AREA AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE LOWER LEVELS. BUT THERE IS NO REAL RELIEF AT THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE REGION.
MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. /ISSUED 758 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, THIS WILL INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TODAY. SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE SHORT TERM /AND INTO LONG RANGE FOR THAT MATTER/ CONSISTS OF STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN PLAINS. WITH A LEAST MODEST TROUGHS OVER BOTH COASTS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS DOMINATED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
824 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
1051 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH.
945 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE NORTH SOUTH AXIS CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THREE WORD FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE SITTING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE CWA HOT, DRY AND BREEZY. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND SUBSIDENCE PEAKING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND UPWARD AT LEAST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 105 TO 112 WITH THE HIGH AMBIENT HEAT AND MODERATE HUMIDITY /THANKS TO THE DEEP MIXING OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE/. SFC WINDS TO RANGE BETWEEN MODERATE AND BREEZY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN CWA WIDE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE GULF COMBINES WITH THE THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS AT 230 AM WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD AND MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME.
916 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 A FRONTAL TROUGH IS NEARING THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WHILE THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AND THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER AT MORRIS BRIDGE HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SFC WINDS WERE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER YESTERDAY THAN FORECAST AND THE ADDITIONAL MIXING HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST.
VFR AT CHA AND ALL SITES FROM ABOUT 15Z TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 6Z SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS MOVE IN.
840 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING WARMER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL TURN A LITTLE SHALLOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS.
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AS ENHANCED MIXING CARE OF THE LOW SPINNING TO THE NORTH TAKES OFF LATE THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WINDS WILL BE A MORE STANDARD SUMMER TIME BREEZY AT ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH BUT EVEN A GUST AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM ABOUT 925MB TO 850MB WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST. AS WELL AS THESE WELL MIXED DAYS TEND TO GET WARMER THAN FORECAST MANY TIMES ANYWAY. AS DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD GET A COUPLE OR THREE WARMER AT THE SURFACE.
ORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 75 92 71 / 30 30 50 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 93 73 89 69 / 30 30 40 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 93 74 90 67 / 30 30 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 91 70 88 63 / 30 30 50 20.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON IOWA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL LA/DEEP EAST TX. /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
1128 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS MADE FORECASTING CONVECTION NOT SO FUN. HEIGHT THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HELP WARM TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. NWP THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HIGH WILL STAY OUT WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED. THE ECM AND NAM SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE RESULT OF TRAILING ENERGY FROM A LOW UP NEAR HUDSON BAY.
This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around sunrise.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVELY ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US AND SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNRISE.
1035 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES ON TODAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HYDRO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
/ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves over the Northeast.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/ MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE EASTERN HALF. A BONA FIDE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. BEYOND THAT THAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND GETTING COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOMEWHAT COOLER. AND MOSTLY NWRLY DRY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROP.
Summer conditions return to the Inland Northwest as a ridge of high pressure takes control. High pressure is currently anchored off the northern California coast. This ridge will continue to build and expand over the next several days. The other large scale feature worth mentioning is a very broad upper level low over Alaska. Over time, the ridge of high pressure will win out.
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CWA AS WEAK LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND NW EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE/SW EXTEND OF UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL THEN GRADUALLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SO EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THERE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.