Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 The advertised cold front has pushed all the way through South Central Texas leaving behind VFR overcast skies and gusty north winds. /ISSUED 835 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ In addition to updates to the hourly T/Td grids to account for the approaching cold front (currently entering the northern CWA border), opted to increase wind gust potential due to upstream obs showing 30-40 mph gusts. This will continue until a cold front arrives later this morning. Dryline is drifting west from the I-35 corridor while a cold front is surging south from the I-20 corridor. Dryline will not drift much further to the west as the cold front enters our far northern areas around sunrise and exits our southern areas around midday.
433 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 A low pressure system will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
246 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the western Dakotas, with clear skies and light winds across the area. Upper level ridging will dominate the weather over the next several days, with a significant warming trend in most areas by midweek.
Eventually surface energy will shift to a low pressure farther offshore, keeping the bulk of the impact and precipitation away from our forecast area. Outside of the ridges, skies should be partly sunny with highs creeping towards the 40 degree mark.
Changes for the eve update were minor with tweaks to temperature and POPs over the ridges completed based on the latest observational and high res. Eventually surface energy will shift to a low pressure farther offshore, keeping the bulk of the impact and precipitation away from our forecast area. Outside of the ridges, skies should be partly sunny with highs remaining about 5 - 7 degrees under the averages.
556 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Early afternoon surface analysis showed a weak surface cold front/wind shift extending from east-central Minnesota through central Iowa. 12Z models are in agreement that there will be long wave troughing in place over the eastern part of the country to start the week. A system coming across eastern Canada will help to amplify this troughing and an embedded short wave trough will cross the Great Lakes and bring some weak forcing across Wisconsin Monday night. As the eastern trough moves slowly out over the Atlantic, the long wave ridging over the Rockies will slide east and over the Midwest for the middle of the week.
A low pressure system will bring rain to the area.
320 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 A cold front will move into the TN Valley this evening bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cooler air will filter in as the precip is exiting the forecast area allowing for a brief window of rain/snow mix in the northern zones and higher elevations ~11-15Z when there is better cooling aloft. 5") are possible for the higher elevations. This will keep daytime highs a little cooler, only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A low pressure system will move across the Southern Appalachian Region this TAF period.
Water vapor satellite at 08Z shows the mid level trough over southeast Nebraska with the trough axis extending southwest into central Kansas. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will decrease after 5 PM as high pressure builds southward into northern Kansas and pressure gradient relaxes. Highs today will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with temperatures in the 40s. Lows tonight will range from the lower to upper 20s from northwest to southeast across the cwa.
218 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Early afternoon surface analysis showed a weak surface cold front/wind shift extending from east-central Minnesota through central Iowa. 12Z models are in agreement that there will be long wave troughing in place over the eastern part of the country to start the week. A system coming across eastern Canada will help to amplify this troughing and an embedded short wave trough will cross the Great Lakes and bring some weak forcing across Wisconsin Monday night. As the eastern trough moves slowly out over the Atlantic, the long wave ridging over the Rockies will slide east and over the Midwest for the middle of the week.
Low clouds likely to clear out for a time late tonight or early Monday, but lingering low level moisture, building thermal trof and steep low level lapse rates wl result in low ceilings redeveloping later Monday morning and afternoon.
Low pressure well offshore will gradually shift towards the Pac NW Mon night and Tue, bringing precipitation and mountain snow, along with seasonable temperatures.
128 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Chances for rain increase into tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system which will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
Periods of moderate snowfall have been observed, which is leading to accumulating snowfall on roadways, despite above freezing surface/road temps.
Models are consistent with advertising area of enhanced moisture positioned over west central Georgia late tonight which should allow the some of the highest QPF to fall over the driest region of the state. Will see some drier air filter into northwest Georgia for Monday morning, and temperatures could get to just a few degrees from freezing.
As a result, max temperature around KDLL may be a 1-3 degrees cooler. Upstream cold front will sweep through southern WI later tonight and Monday morning. A few flurries or a light snow shower may get shaken out of the low clouds, especially in the east. A cold front will pass across the near shore waters late tonight and Monday morning.
1251 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 A mid/upper trough digging across Missouri today will bring gusty northwest winds and low level cold air advection to the area today. As high pressure settles south across central Kansas tonight, low temperatures will fall into the teens and 20s in some locations. High pressure at the surface will translate slowly south across the Central and Northern Plains on Tue bringing lighter wind speeds and seasonably cool temperatures with highs in the low 50s for most locations. A mid/upper ridge is progged to emerge from the Southern Rockies toward the middle of the week with rising heights/increasing thickness across the Central Plains.
/issued 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ Upper low dropping southeast heading towards the deep south with a weakening impulse crossing the southern Rockies highlight short term features.
130 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 High pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes today providing dry weather. But it will remain dry in the low levels with easterly flow persisting. Expect lows from the lower 20s north to the upper 20s south. Surface cold front to drop south reinforcing cold air over the area. Upper trough positioned across Eastern NOAM will dictate weather for this period.
Some showers will be ahead of the front but the most widespread activity, enough to warrant prevailing rain showers and VCTS, should be along and just ahead of the main cold front, between roughly 14 and 20z Monday. This cold front will pass through later on Monday and could produce strong to severe storms over portions of South Florida during the daytime hours.
254 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 An area of low pressure, that brought 1 to 4 inches of snow to parts of the far southern and southwestern CWA early this morning, is now over central Missouri.
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Strong compact upper level low centered over the Lake of the Ozarks is moving southeast. Wet snow is occurring northeast of the low track with some decent accumulation in some areas form central into east central MO.
338 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 High pressure over the area will allow for partly cloudy skies tonight.
410 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Weak surface and upper level ridging over the North country tonight will shut down residual light snow showers and provide quiet weather tonight and Monday.
250 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the central plains and another over northern Manitoba and Ontario. The trough over central Canada will move south and affect the upper Great Lakes tonight and the lower Great Lakes on Mon. An upper low will move just E of the CWA Mon night, with a vort max or two rotating around the W side of the low and across the area Mon night into Tue. Lower clouds will reach KIWD in advance of a cold front that will sweep across the area tonight.
Currently, northerly flow aloft across the region with upper level ridging off to our west. High pressure will build across the Dakotas today into tonight, resulting in a mostly clear sky.
123 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 High pressure will build south into the Central Great Lakes today as low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley. Monday low pressure will drop into the area from the north.
High pressure remains centered to the west, with west winds over the forecast area at around 10 kts. Temps have been mostly at or below the freezing mark, but with plenty of March sun there will continue to be melting on some surfaces. On Monday night, this high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies and some cold air advection allowing for temperatures to fall into the single digits above zero.
They depict a low pressure system tracking into our area before secondary low forms and rapidly deepens off the east coast. WInds will become gusty behind the cold front, but look to be below wind advisory criteria. Monday night the low pressure system that brought us wintry precip is well to our east. A longwave trough remains with NW flow firmly in place.
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Weak surface and upper level ridging over the North country tonight will shut down residual light snow showers and provide quiet weather tonight and Monday.
An inverted trough at the surface extended through northwest Missouri and western Iowa. Precipitation thus far this morning has been piecemeal as moisture availability has been inconsistent with drier easterly flow from high pressure to the east and Gulf moisture shunted off to the south. A few reports in Minnesota of freezing drizzle in areas with lower cloud heights and fog. Any vertical ascent or turbulence with in the low level moist layer by this time will be negligible and while some mist is possible, not expecting any impacts.
223 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 (Tonight and Monday) Gusty north winds continue to affect most of the area this afternoon behind a cold front that moved through last night into this morning. Temperatures range from the lower 50s along/north of I-20 to the lower 60s for southern areas. But, upper level clouds will continue to stream across the area, keeping this cooling in check somewhat, so have kept most areas above freezing, although a few locations getting down to freezing isn't out of the question.
A few areas of patchy freezing fog will persist through late morning. Today, NE MT will have clear skies due to the ridge in place over the high plains. Templer Previous Discussion: Clearing skies, a high pressure ridge approaching and calm winds have allowed some areas of northeast Montana to develop some freezing fog through these early morning hours. Satellite imagery and observation data show that the most dense freezing fog seems to be here in Glasgow along the Milk River and low lying areas upstream of Glasgow in western and northwestern Valley County. For now, have chosen to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for Valley County until Noon today, with additional impacts of the fog easily freezing onto exposed surfaces, making them slippery through the remainder of this morning.
Near the surface, A cold front is edging slowly southeast across southwest and central Kansas. Cloudiness will increase tonight as a weak upper level low slides northeast from New Mexico into the Central Plains. A cold front is also progged to bisect the CWA overnight then ooze through the remainder of the CWA tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from the low 20s across portions of west central Kansas to upper 30s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to range from the lower 40s across west central Kansas to upper 40s across south central Kansas.
1017 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern IA, with cold front well south and east of the area at this time. Drier air at the lower levels to the north and east is helping to keep the rest of the area mainly dry. Light snow will continue into the evening over northeast WY and southwest SD, tapering off overnight from north to south as the trough digs further southwest of the region.
/issued 244 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/ An upper trough is over West Texas and southeast New Mexico with another upper trough over the western CONUS. The upper trough to the west deepens and approaches the area on Sunday.
427 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will build across the region today and move east tonight.
240 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will build across the region today.
A series of temperatures inversions are noted from the surface up to 700mb, and this has effectively killed off any potential instability in the lower part of the atmosphere. Weak isentropic forcing over the cooler airmass at the surface is what is driving this cloud development. This is most evident in the large increase in freezing level heights from 11.
421 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains off to the southeast and we remain in control of this feature this morning. The feature of interest for the near term period will be a upper level closed low that is located across Kansas with the axis extending into the Arklatex this morning.
Any low ceilings that do develop will erode from west to east during the late morning Sunday as a cold front pushes across the TAF sites. This short wave will quickly move east of the area tonight followed by a weak surface cold front during the day on Sunday.
Overpeck As of 8 PM local time, looks like the center of the low is inland over Matagorda County with storms right near the center starting to get their act together.
1259 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure overnight.
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 An upper level low is currently over western Texas and moving northeastward tonight. Clouds will hang around most of the day on Sunday with temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than today. The area will remain in a pseudo split to zonal flow with a cut off upper level low over the southwestern U.
The other forecast concern in the near-term is the threat for drizzle or freezing drizzle across western and west-central Nebraska. High temperatures today will be much cooler than previous days, largely thanks to persistent cloud cover.
A weakening warm front will pass mainly to our north overnight. Expect a cold front to approach from the northwest during the day Sunday, and then stall over the region Sunday night.
254 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure, centered to the north, is forecast to maintain quiet weather conditions through the beginning of the week, under an easterly flow. The high then is progged to slide to the southeast, setting up almost directly over South Florida. There is also a 500mb ridge centered just to the south of the Florida peninsula. This will allow for warmer temperatures across the CWA for the entire forecast period.
Light freezing drizzle expected to continue in the Lake of the Woods area for another few hours as weak upper energy moves out to the east. High resolution model guidance suggests high pressure building in will cause areas of fog to continue developing this evening along the valley. Focus turns to overnight lows and clearing tonight as much of central and wrn ND clear in the low/mid levels. Sfc boundary associated w/ warm front remains near stationary over valley tonight and which should keep NE zones in the mid teens as well as they barely broke the 20 mark this afternoon. More sunshine still expected on Sunday with areas west of the valley around or just above freezing in all but far northeastern ND, which will remain in the mid to upper 20.
205 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will shift off the Southeast Coast today.
Otherwise, tomorrow highs will depend upon how widespread the low clouds/fog expand overnight and whether the clouds break up.
Temperatures in the southern areas should be just above freezing at this time, so am currently not expecting widespread frozen precipitation, but a few of the higher elevations could see a brief wintry mix before temperatures warm up. With the increased cloud coverage daytime high temperatures should remain a few degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday. With somewhat southerly flow and continued cloud coverage overnight, temperatures are expected to remain a bit warmer, around 10 degrees warmer than this morning.
Meanwhile, a secondary northern stream trough will move across the Dakotas and western MN later this afternoon. Clouds and cooler temperatures today should limit melting of current snowpack, but will still have to watch fog potential again tonight.
421 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure is moving in for tonight and last into Sunday. A weakening wave of low pressure will move in from the midwest late Sunday. Temperatures under the clouds are running a bit warmer than expected along with west-southwest winds over the clearer areas of the southwest. The low pressure over the mid-MS valley will fall apart as it goes into the OH valley and a loss of moisture will kill much of the precip as the feature fills over us and moves eastward Sun night. Many places should stay above freezing.
The lower 50s(F) are likely ahead of the boundary in south central Kansas.
Clearing skies is allowing for good radiational cooling and producing patchy freezing fog across the region such as in the yakima valley and along the foothills of the blue mountains.
In the lower levels high pressure is centered essentially right over Georgia. High clouds will continue to stream in from the west atop the mid level ridge through the afternoon and overnight hours. With the warmer temps and wetter forecast, no frozen precip is anticipated at this time.
Stratus developed on the edge of our eastern zones and has since expanded to the west as the low level flow continues out of the northeast.
1151 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will build across the Southeast U.
442 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains off to the southeast and we remain in control of this feature this morning. The feature of interest for the near term period will be a upper level closed low that is located across Kansas with the axis extending into the Arklatex this morning.
Temperatures will gradually warm into the mid to upper 30s across the southern forecast area, but further north, look to mainly hold steady in the low 30s.
00Z Upper air analysis this evening places an upper level low over Eastern New Mexico and portions of the Texas Panhandle. Clouds will keep highs a little bit cooler from today, but will still be near normal with readings ranging from around 50 to the mid 50s. Thus lows will only drop to the lower to mid 40s.
GOES-16 Water Vapor Imagery indicates a stream of moisture advecting northward, ahead of the low. The highest rainfall amounts are expected across southeast Oklahoma, where ~0. For tomorrow, remnant cloud cover may create a northeast to southwest temperature gradient across the area; cooler temperatures are expected across north central Oklahoma with warmer temperatures across southwest Oklahoma/north Texas.
424 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure moves over the region today, then drifts east tonight.
Mid/Upper level trough over the ARKLATEX region on recent satellite imagery is moving slowly northeast this morning toward the lower OH Valley region. As weakening low pressure moves across southern IN then off to the east, low clouds and some light rain/drizzle should remain from cooler air circulating around the backside of the low.
A weak upper level trough tracking across the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada this morning will give way to upper level ridging this afternoon. Generally mild conditions tonight ahead of the cold front with overnight lows in the 20s.
330 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 We find ourselves this morning within a zone of mid level convergence between a positively trough stretching from northwest Wyoming into Manitoba and an h5 low moving northeast across KS. This has high pressure over us and limited mixing, meaning we have a combination of fog and low stratus out there. Unfortunately, we aren't going to get rid of this low level moisture until we get some mechanical mixing going and that won't happen until tonight as southwest low level winds develop, so outside of western MN we get to spend another daylight period enjoying gray skies.
312 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 A cold front will move across the Panhandles this morning in the wake of a departing upper level low which is moving into Kansas. Low clouds and areas of fog will be found in association with the cold front, but think these will dissipate and push off to the east by early afternoon.
Clearing skies is allowing for good radiational cooling and producing patchy freezing fog across the region such as in the yakima valley and along the foothills of the blue mountains. areas of mvfr and lcl ifr in patchy freezing fog will effect taf sites kykm and kalw before a disturbance moves into the region after 08z and the fog should lessen at these locations.
Otherwise the incoming clouds will help hold overnight lows in the east up into the 40s while the NW is closer to freezing, although those temperatures will likely come back up as the clouds come in. Eastern Kansas stays in the cloud cover for the morning and into the afternoon on Sunday, however the cooler air that wraps southeastward into the state behind the upper system is not all that cold, with highs around 40 still anticipated in the far northwest and may hold onto 50 in the far southeast.
335 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will shift off the Southeast Coast today.
The entire mass associated with an upper trough centered over western Oklahoma will continue to push fairly quickly off to the east with rain coming to an end across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana by mid to late morning and acadiana by early afternoon.
347 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure continues on Sunday with quiet and seasonably cold weather. A warm front will bring light snow across the region as the pattern becomes more active through the week.
The lower 50s(F) are likely ahead of the boundary in south central Kansas. A weak flow aloft and a prevailing drier air mass across the Western High Plains will hold any chances for precip at bay, especially toward the middle part of the week as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Central Rockies into the Central Plains.
The coverage is not continuous, but low enough to hoist a dense fog advisory for the morning hours, as the fog should linger trough mid morning before dissipating or exiting east. Will be stuck with plenty of clouds today, that will slide southeast as the day goes on as the 500mb trough stretching from Manitoba through eastern MT/WY/and down through northwestern Mexico slides east.
The upper low over the western Texas panhandle lifts out across Oklahoma and into northeast Kansas by Sunday morning with colder air moving in behind a cold front that pushes southward across western Kansas and into the Texas panhandle. Expect the area of low clouds across eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle region to move into the forecast area mainly after midnight with the possibility of areas of freezing fog, light freezing drizzle, and snow flurries developing and spreading across mainly the western and northern sections of the forecast area focused primarily on the 09-14Z time period. High temperatures will be much cooler than today and should be above freezing by 17Z, which should quickly melt anything that did freeze overnight and early in the morning.