Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
554 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance An unseasonably strong 500mb ridge is parked overhead today with its axis stretching from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf Coast. An isolated shower or storm still can't be ruled out across the east half of the region the rest of this afternoon, but chances appear quite low given the ridge overhead.
729 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure yields dry weather with above normal temperatures into Thursday. High pressure will keep conditions dry today and tonight, with low RH conditions once again. This along with warmer temperatures should prevent much in a fall of temperatures area wide.
Anomalous upper-level ridging remains the story in this short term forecast period. Stratocumulus clouds are currently dissipating, due to the ridge bringing in subsidence and dry mid-levels.
543 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 Semi-active flow to continue through the end of the work week as an upper trough slowly advances over the region. Main upper trough will lift NE tonight and support a strong push of elevated theta-e across the FA.
408 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 A moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon ahead of an upper low over the Great Basin. The upstream low will eject across eastern Utah and into northeast Colorado tonight through tomorrow, pushing a mostly dry cold front through the area and bringing temperatures back down to near or below normal readings. Although winds will remain enhanced through tonight with the passage of the cold front, they should decouple and weaken from current magnitudes after sunset this evening. Little in the way of moisture will accompany the cold front as it crosses the area.
938 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Looking at a quiet night overnight as atmospheric precip water remains low and the ridge remains more or less in place.
601 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Cool north wind will prevail through Thursday as low pressure offshore drifts toward the SW.
601 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 (Thru Tonight) A ridge of high pressure aloft, extending from the Great Lakes south to the Sabine River valley, will maintain tranquil weather tonight. A gradual downward trend in dewpoints, mostly clear skies and subsiding winds overnight will allow overnight lows to dip a couple degrees or so cooler tonight compared to last night. A trailing cold front will move slowly southeast, approaching the region late Thursday night.
937 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure yields dry weather with above normal temperatures into Thursday. High pressure will keep conditions dry today and tonight, with low RH conditions once again. This along with warmer temperatures should prevent much in a fall of temperatures area wide.
931 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 All is quiet tonight with ridging firmly in control of the Lower Miss Valley at the surface and 5h ridging also firmly in control of the Ohio Valley, southward into the Lower Miss Valley and the Piney Woods of NE TX.
335 PM PDT Wed May 11 2022 Scattered rain and snow showers will taper off this evening with a drier and warmer pattern setting up for the balance of the week.
A trailing cold front will move slowly southeast, approaching the region late Thursday night.
Issued by National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 408 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 A moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon ahead of an upper low over the Great Basin. The upstream low will eject across eastern Utah and into northeast Colorado tonight through tomorrow, pushing a mostly dry cold front through the area and bringing temperatures back down to near or below normal readings. Although winds will remain enhanced through tonight with the passage of the cold front, they should decouple and weaken from current magnitudes after sunset this evening. Little in the way of moisture will accompany the cold front as it crosses the area.
925 PM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Light northerly to northeasterly flow remains in place across the region as we remain sandwiched between the large cutoff low off the southeast coast the and the amplified ridge just to the west. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler as cooler air from northeast tries to work into the region.
By Friday, the closed upper low off the east coast will continue it's slow retrograde to the west towards the area bringing an increase in cloud cover as well as the chance for precipitation.
Today will be another warm and dry day as upper ridging rules one more day. The upper low will continue the slow westward journey and move inland off of the southeast Atlantic coast tonight. As the upper riding influences weaken tomorrow, high temperatures will be cooler by three or four degrees and a couple isolated storms could develop along the plateau.
/issued 939 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ Another late spring night under a midsummer-like upper level ridge. /issued 235 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ The upper ridge that has been parked over the Mid-South this week will begin to retrograde back to the west and weaken as an upper level low pressure system moves westward from the East Coast to the Tennessee River Valley. The ridge will weaken by Friday Night which will allow a cold front to sink southward into the Midwest.
Anomalous upper-level ridging remains the story in this short term forecast period. Stratocumulus clouds are currently dissipating, due to the ridge bringing in subsidence and dry mid-levels. Upper low over the southeastern US retrogrades westward off the Atlantic Thursday night and then northward into the TN Valley during the day Friday. As the upper low approaches the region, PoPs will be on the increase during the afternoon Friday as moisture increases over eastern KY. As the upper low works into the TN Valley Friday, it undercuts and breaks the anomalous ridge axis that had dominated our weather during the week. Ridge does lift further north and eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS.
/ISSUED 712 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022/ An upper level trough extends south through the Great Basin this afternoon with embedded mid level circulation over NV and southerly flow downstream across eastern MT. Meanwhile, the next upper level trough upstream, near the BC coast, will accelerate the ejection of the NV low up into WY tonight and north along the MT/ND border tomorrow. Light easterly flow in the lower levels and weak instability has resulted in terrain based cumulus development early this afternoon, despite very limited moisture. The system lifts out into Canada Thursday night with the next upstream trough moving in quickly from the west across the area Friday.
The rest of the day will be warm and dry for most with light winds in place thanks to a stacked ridge overhead.
240 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Strong mid and upper level ridging remains in place over the Mississippi River Valley. The ridge will weaken through tonight as stacked low pressure drifts westward over the Southeast coast. In the lower levels, high pressure is forecast to move east across New England. East/northeast flow through a deep layer is advecting slightly cooler and much drier air into the region this morning. In central KY and southern IN, sfc dewpoints will eventually settle into the low to mid 50s for much of the daytime, resulting in more comfortable humidity levels.
Temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the east to upper 90s in the west. A few locations will be capable of reaching the triple digit mark around the Breckenridge to Graham area this afternoon due to little to no clouds along with relatively dry air in place. /NEW/ /Friday Onward/ We'll be on the periphery of cyclonic flow aloft by Friday as a retrograding upper low aids in breaking down the ridge axis. Boundary layer mixing will send dewpoints into the lower 60s or upper 50s each afternoon, and the resultant low humidity will keep heat indices near or even a couple degrees lower than ambient temperatures.
314 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The dryline will shift eastward to near the Caprock escarpment by late in the day as an upper level short wave trough rotates northeastward from Utah toward the western Dakotas. Dry air advection and downslope component should result in warmer temperatures over the western half of the forecast area relative to yesterday and potential fire weather problems as discussed below. A trailing cold front will shift through the Texas Panhandle during the morning hours Friday with a northerly wind shift spreading through most of the forecast area by early afternoon.
Strong warm advection lifting northward through South Dakota, combined with increased forcing from an upper level trough tracking from the Great Basin into the central Rockies is producing the aforementioned convection over South Dakota. Then this afternoon as the upper level low lifts into the Northern High Plains, we think widespread shower activity will develop over the western half of the forecast area, and into eastern Montana. Isolated to scattered embedded thunder will be possible, even with daytime highs in the 50s, due to the forcing out the approaching upper low. The main threat for severe weather this afternoon will be over the eastern CWA, mainly along and east of the Highway 83 corridor. NAM/GFS continue to indicate either high end advisory or High Wind Warning respectively on Friday beneath the upper low as it lifts north.
(Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day is in store, with upper ridging suppressing shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures today will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with highs mainly in the upper 90s. It will be another breezy day, with a lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line bringing gusty south winds.
It will be slightly cooler then, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s shifting into the 60s and low to mid 70s by mid week. The upper level ridge firmly in place over the Great Lakes region will remain through Friday evening, leaving hot and dry conditions under (thankfully) light south-southeast winds. Despite lack of winds, the lower humidity values in combination with the heat today will support an increased fire risk across the area, so be cautious and perhaps rearrange any plans to burn. Friday night we finally phase our two upper level systems, the northwest low over the Canadian Prairie and the closed low over the SE CONUS.
I anticipate that afternoon highs will tie, or exceed record values in a number of areas as the upper level ridge continues to build across the region, and a southerly flow continues at the surface. Cloud cover looks to be on the low side tomorrow. Looking ahead, the ridge will begin to break down by Friday, and a slow-moving front will be approaching the area.
Highs will climb into the 90s, ranging from the low 90s across central Oklahoma to the upper 90s across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the east to upper 90s in the west. A few locations will be capable of reaching the triple digit mark around the Breckenridge to Graham area this afternoon due to little to no clouds along with relatively dry air in place.
410 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 While much of today should be again precip free and mostly sunny to partly cloudy, moisture will be advecting in from the east accompanying a westward retrograding and slowly dampening upper cutoff low within the large scale blocking pattern aloft. Temps look to stay near climo norms today with highs generally in the low to mid 80s, then increased clouds/precip potential and influence of upper low will limit max temps Friday to below norms with much of the area in the upper 70s.
A moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon ahead of an upper low over the Great Basin. The upstream low will eject across eastern Utah and into northeast Colorado tonight through tomorrow, pushing a mostly dry cold front through the area and bringing temperatures back down to near or below normal readings. Although winds will remain enhanced through tonight with the passage of the cold front, they should decouple and weaken from current magnitudes after sunset this evening. Little in the way of moisture will accompany the cold front as it crosses the area. Weak ripples embedded in the flow will maintain occasional cloud cover over the area, otherwise temperatures will gradually trend warmer, ending back in above-normal territory for the weekend.
The upper high and associated subsidence over Michigan should hold any Wisconsin convection at bay for the next couple days. The abnormally warm 850 mb temperatures in the upper teens C will keep the low to mid 80s going across the region, with some upper 80s possible across central Lower Michigan. - Scattered Showers over the Weekend With a Few Thunderstorms A deepening upper low over Manitoba on Friday will gradually lead to falling heights across the Great Lakes.
123 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Dry and warm weather is forecast to continue through Thursday under high pressure. High clouds will begin to build in from the southeast later overnight in response to a strong low pressure system tracking northwest into the eastern Ohio Valley. Highs will warm once again into the lower 80s, with overnight lows dropping to within a few degrees of 60. Blocky upper pattern with ridge over the region to undergo a transition as a large mid level cut off low retrogrades west into the southeast U.
/issued 938 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ Looking at a quiet night overnight as atmospheric precip water remains low and the ridge remains more or less in place.
This trough is current in a holding pattern with a ridge axis over the southern plains into the Great Lakes region, with a closed low off the Georgia coast. The upper trough will shift east slightly and the upper low will start retrograding westward into the GA/FL coast. The northern stream upper wave and the southeast retrograding low will aid in breaking down the ridge over the area on Friday.
1205 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 The strong H3 upper level ridge axis remains in place directly over Southeast Michigan. Model data advertises the amplitude of the ridge axis will increase across northern Ontario and Quebec tonight, which will effectively increase the wavelength or retrograde the ridge back well into eastern and central Wisconsin.
An area of low pressure will slide off to our east tonight bringing quieter conditions to the area through the weekend.
Once the warmer air aloft moves in, convection chances will be nill until toward late afternoon. At the sfc a cold front will be sliding into the eastern CWA around max heating. Nonetheless, still fee there is fair potential for severe wx over the eastern CWA as a cold front trudges toward the east this afternoon/evening. By mid evening, most of the activity will have exited the CWA as upper trof moves mostly out of the area, and sfc front moves off into central MN. With the passing of the cold front, much quieter weather expected for the weekend with occasional gusty winds.
High temps today wl again climb into the lower and mid 90s at many locations, with a number of records in jeopardy. By Fri, the aforementioned upper rdg wl break down in response to a closed upper low lifting Nwd thru the SErn U. , and a large scale trof working fm the Nrn Plains into the Wrn Great Lakes region.
That in turn should allow the storms near us to fall apart or track northeast with the warm front. After around 10 pm, and then through the mid morning hours of Thursday, I expect mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. All of that keeps us under the upper ridge even as it is starting to weaken.
With temperatures starting out quite warm already, bumped forecast highs up a few degrees since we out-performed highs yesterday and got into the lower and even middle 90s! Highs today are expected to once again get into the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. Temperatures in the 80s and high humidity will yield moderate instability by the afternoon and evening with HREF SBCAPE upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg, largely due to pooling of low-level moisture along the washed out cold front. Since the 0-6 km bulk shear vector is mostly parallel to the low- level boundary, slow moving or repeated rounds of storms could lead to localized flash flooding given the high PWATs over 1.
This will place northeast Montana under the northwest quadrant of the low with a high chance for rain.
Rain chances will increase tonight and into Friday as low pressure funnels moisture from the Atlantic Ocean westward toward the Appalachian Mountains.
1043 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 Semi-active flow to continue through the end of the work week as an upper trough slowly advances over the region. Main upper trough will lift NE tonight and support a strong push of elevated theta-e across the FA.
Discussion: The upper ridge to our west will be squeezed by the upper low retrograding west from the atlantic into the southeastern states.
134 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Cool north wind will prevail through Thursday as low pressure offshore drifts toward the SW.
Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler as cooler air from northeast tries to work into the region. An area of low pressure off the SE Coast will move onshore overnight Thursday into Friday. Heavy rain is not anticipated as this is expected to be a broad area of low pressure with minimal upper-level forcing. Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s at 3 AM with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s. An upper level ridge dominates the area with north to northeast winds allowing for warmer temperatures. By tomorrow, the ridge over the area will weaken as it gets sandwiched between two systems. This weakening will allow temperatures to be a bit cooler with highs generally in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. By the weekend, the aforementioned low will be absorbed into the other upper level trough in Canada.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 61 82 61 85 / 0 0 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 58 80 60 82 / 0 0 50 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 83 59 81 60 83 / 0 0 50 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 57 78 57 79 / 10 10 60 30 70.
/issued 931 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ All is quiet tonight with ridging firmly in control of the Lower Miss Valley at the surface and 5h ridging also firmly in control of the Ohio Valley, southward into the Lower Miss Valley and the Piney Woods of NE TX.
1135 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance An unseasonably strong 500mb ridge is parked overhead today with its axis stretching from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf Coast. An isolated shower or storm still can't be ruled out across the east half of the region the rest of this afternoon, but chances appear quite low given the ridge overhead. The upper ridge will gradually break down over the next couple of days as a large scale upper low off the southeast coast slowly churns westward to the southern Appalachian region by later Friday.
216 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 High pressure will continue to shield most of the area, except for the mountains, with dry weather and above normal temperatures into Friday when shower/storm chances rise again. Cloud coverage will increase by this afternoon, but not enough to block out the sun in the lowlands like it has a chance to in the mountains. Easterly waves move scattered showers across the mountains Thursday evening with a few showers making it farther west across the low lands Friday morning. Chances for showers continue through the day as the upper low moves toward the Ohio river Valley. Rain amounts will be on the light side with amounts around a tenth of an inch or less across the low lands with slightly higher amounts along mountains.
304 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday. Ridging will maintain mainly dry and warm weather, though low shower chances return SE of PIT later on Friday as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS.
928 PM PDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure building aloft will bring warmer weather through the weekend.
1221 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through tonight. Low pressure over the Atlantic will drift west through the area on Friday, then Atlantic high pressure will gradually rebuild. Clouds associated with low pressure offshore of North Carolina will slowly spread southwest into the region early this morning. High pressure will persist inland on Thursday, while weak low pressure over the Atlantic drifts southwestward towards/near the Southeast coast. The low/inverted trough is expected to shift inland on Friday. High temperatures will be cooler than normal, mainly peaking in the mid to upper 70s. Lows both nights will average in the lower 60s.
/issued 314 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022/ The dryline will shift eastward to near the Caprock escarpment by late in the day as an upper level short wave trough rotates northeastward from Utah toward the western Dakotas. Dry air advection and downslope component should result in warmer temperatures over the western half of the forecast area relative to yesterday and potential fire weather problems as discussed below. A trailing cold front will shift through the Texas Panhandle during the morning hours Friday with a northerly wind shift spreading through most of the forecast area by early afternoon.
724 AM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday. Ridging will maintain mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. Low shower chances return SE of PIT later on Friday as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS.
and some adiabatic compression ahead of the approaching cold front. expect afternoon temperatures to climb a few degrees above yesterdays values, and generally in the low 90s across the board. while a couple of hours of potentially critical conditions are possible this afternoon as dewpoints drop behind the cold front. cooler weather will filter in across the local area to end the week.
228 AM PDT Thu May 12 2022 Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring a strong warming trend into the weekend with high temperatures well above average.
The upper ridge across Wisconsin combined with southerly flow bringing up very warm and humid air could result in record high temperatures this afternoon. There will likely be a temperature inversion to inhibit convection, but a surface warm front moving north, or leftover convective boundaries could produce additional thunderstorms today. A cold front should produce thunderstorms as it moves across during the afternoon and early evening.
A broad trough remains over the region, but we're starting the day between two stronger, smaller troughs embedded in that flow. This afternoon, cloud cover will increase ahead of the next wave embedded in the broader trough pattern. Weather satellites and radar show the next trough and cold front coming ashore on the U. We expect around half an inch of precipitation with a couple inches of new snow at high elevations in central Idaho, with generally less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation in all but the highest elevations of western Montana. The timing of the lowering snow level means there should be very minimal impacts on area roads from snow.
Low elevation rain showers (and mountain snow showers) will continue throughout the region, with locations east of the Continental Divide having the highest chances for at least a tenth of an inch of rain by midnight. High Wind Warnings are in effect for the locations most likely to see the higher end gusts. The trough and widespread cloud cover over the region will keep temperatures about 10 degrees below normal today, but on Friday westerly flow allows heights to increase, leading to temperatures within a few degrees of normal. Mountain showers continue Friday, but the lower elevations look to remain mostly dry.