Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
908 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Skies are cloudy across the forecast area with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to around 60 degrees. A cold front has made its way into northern sections of the forecast area with widespread light rain showers found ahead of the front.
633 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 Periods of snow will continue through the evening and may mix with drizzle or freezing drizzle at times.
946 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Light snow has been slow to taper off today as we still have the influence of the upper trough overhead.
843 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 An inverted trough over the region will lift North and weaken Tonight as high pressure builds to the East.
A cold front had moved through the entire forecast area on Sunday afternoon, and after a relatively warm morning, temperatures had basically stabilized with the frontal passage or even dropped a bit while accompanied by 20 mph northwest winds. This front has also been effective in drying out the lower levels of the atmosphere, so while it squeezed out some drizzle early on, low level clouds have since been dissipating from west to east. However, while effective at producing snow aloft, the strongest lift is above the sharply drier airmass in the low levels and little if any of this snow has been reaching the surface.
543 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Warm air advection continues ahead of a slowly progressing cold front, which is currently located across northwest and north central Missouri. As this cold front progresses eastward it will bring some slightly drier air into the lower levels, which will cause some improvements to the lowered visibility caused by the drizzle. Precipitation chances will end from west to east with the passage of the cold front. While no impactful meteorological issues should arise, lingering moisture on area roads, mainly bridges, could refreeze as temperatures plummet tonight. Despite the cold frontal passage, Monday will bring near-normal high temperatures, with max temperatures in the 40s.
The center of a large high pressure area will move steadily away from the mid Atlantic coast. Canaveral profilers still show east/southeast winds around 20 knots in the low levels, and this was generating scattered showers over the Atlantic, with a few bands moving into the coast. Not sure with the boundary layer flow staying near 10 knots how low surface visibilities will go, but these "sloppy" warm front type situations can often produce dense fog. The latest surface analysis shows the pressure gradient starting to slacken, even though the GFS has a solid 20 knot east/southeast flow in the low levels.
The warmer and more humid air will continue to advance northward, but a shallow stable layer near the surface will likely prevail resulting in widespread low clouds and eventually some fog.
Cold front is just clearing the far eastern portions of the forecast area with preceding light showers also shifting east of the area.
With the moisture in the ground from past days, and only high clouds, patchy freezing fog will form in valleys of northern and parts of central Nevada tonight into Monday morning.
Another low pressure system and cold front will be pressing east across the Mississippi Valley tonight and will exit across the Appalachian Mountains around mid day Monday. Drier air builds in behind the departing cold front during the afternoon bringing an end to the rain.
A strong cold front is approaching Middle Tennessee this evening with scattered showers already entering the mid state.
518 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Quasi-zonal flow continues tonight and Tuesday with one short wave moving to the I 29 corridor by 12Z Tuesday, followed on its heels by a second short wave rapidly moving through Tuesday morning and ushering in a strong surface cold front. Snowfall amounts of around an inch to inch and a half could fall along the Highway 14 corridor, with a dusting toward I 90. Therefore am mainly concerned about a patchy freezing drizzle threat along with some light sleet.
Canadian high pressure slides south behind the wave with temperatures dropping back below zero across most of northeast Montana. With the high pressure pushing south, the focus for this wave should be over the southern zones with less than 2 inches of accumulation expected.
936 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Pressure gradient over the Mid-South will tighten up overnight as a strong low pressure system tracks into the Upper Midwest. With the strong southerly winds expected overnight, temperatures are at the lowest they will be. It will be warmer though. A weak broad ridge will shift out of the Midsouth tonight. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of a continental cold front approaching from the West. The cold front is expected to stall to our North across South Missouri.
As the low center moves farther away tomorrow, the pressure gradient in the southern Plains will slacken, and wind speeds will diminish during the day.
The warmer air is finally starting to make some headway into the region with temperatures now above freezing across the area. Through the short term period a low pressure system will lift out of the Plains and through the upper Midwest into southeastern Canada. A cold front associated with this system will slowly sag through the region on Tuesday night. Though there could be a very brief window for some freezing rain/drizzle, temperatures will be on the increase after 06Z. Therefore any freezing precipitation should quickly transition to plain rain and no adverse impacts are expected. However, will likely issue an SPS highlighting the higher winds.
800 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 The moderating trend is underway as high pressure has moved across the Mid-Atlantic states and now out into the western Atlantic Ocean shifting the low level flow to a northeast to east direction.
Most of the mesoscale and global models show the northern area of precipitation drying up as it moves into stronger high pressure across North Dakota. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure across Nebraska and the arctic high across Alberta and Saskatchewan will lead to increasing winds overnight across western and central North Dakota.
Most of the light snow and freezing drizzle will be along and east of the Red River, and should linger into the early morning hours. Reports with this band have been as expected with around a half inch on the low end and pushing 1. 5 to 2 inches on the high end. In addition, have just recently started receiving some freezing drizzle/mist reports along Highway 2 on the North Dakota side and the Grand Forks/Fargo metros (and areas in between). Roads around the area don't sound like they are being impacted much but will monitor for any concerns besides some slight visibility restrictions and freezing on windshields.
509 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Upper level zonal flow eventually turns more southwest toward late workweek as a synoptic trough develops.
533 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Southwest winds around 15 knots this evening will pick up and turn to the west behind a cold front around Midnight. A weak cold front will push through the area this evening.
Axis of max forcing aligned across northern Utah where radar is detecting a line of intense convection along sfc cold front. especially around passage of the cold front. should see snowfall in the high country winding down through the morning as drier and more stable air moves in on the back side of the upper trough. Should still see areas of snow showers but additional accumulations will be on the low side. another dry day but slightly cooler and more clouds with passing trough.
Model soundings are more or less useless in the lowest 1000 feet or so, as they eroded the inversion way too fast in all valley locations. While most valleys eventually climbed above freezing, Grand Junction has only now risen to 32 degrees as of 3pm this afternoon. A diffuse cold front in the mid-levels will slowly track from west to east over the region tonight. The mid-level cold front appears to wash out over central Colorado tonight, which would indicate a bit of a slower drop in temperatures especially at the surface. The biggest changes have been to lower min temps in the north where the cold front will have it's greatest effect, and to raise min temps in the south. As precipitation ends on Tuesday, temperatures are forecast to rebound above freezing in the valleys.
727 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 High pressure gradually moving east into the Atlantic waters will veer winds to THE E in the next 12 to 24 hours with cigs moving onshore the Atlantic coast. Aloft, the longwave trough that has been over the eastern US is progressing eastward with ridging moving into its place. Tonight/Tuesday: As the center of the high shifts eastward, winds will continue to slowly veer to a more easterly direction.
Broad high pressure lingers along the eastern US coastline, with mid-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight may be the last of the low 60 degree temperature readings the Florida Keys sees for several days. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1951, the low temperature in Key West was 47 degrees.
We should see below freezing temperatures for the last time tonight as temperatures continue to moderate under southerly flow. Therefore, higher elevations will be more likely to see stronger winds, and a wind advisory is in place for the highest elevations of GSMNP Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 50 46 61 / 10 20 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 48 43 57 / 10 10 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 26 47 43 55 / 10 10 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 45 38 54 / 10 10 60 60 TN.
1032 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Arctic High pressure will keep cold and dry air over the region through early Tuesday then begin retreating eastward. Surface and upper ridge off the Carolina coast with trough moving from the Midwest toward the Great Lakes region. Models do indicate a weak coastal trough Tuesday with moderately strong but shallow isentropic lift across the east Midlands during Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Deeper moisture remaining across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions near developing warm front.
Given that available moisture will be contained to the lowest portions of the atmosphere, it'll likely be in the form of drizzle. As for temps, they'll likely remain above freezing during the overnight hours (although it'll be rather close to the freezing mark along the IA border) so freezing drizzle chances should be negligible.
The cold front across northern Utah late this afternoon will settle south into central Utah and weaken overnight.
920 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Temperatures at this hour running 20-25 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday. Just minor tweaks to hourly temperatures over southeast Texas which was running a bit warmer than forecast. Southerly flow has returned to the area and so have the warmer temperatures. Highs today manage to get into the lower 60s most southern areas. troughs could be found on the Western and Eastern US coasts. with ridging across the central United States. watching for development of sea fog as warmer air moves over the cooler shelf waters.
417 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017 20z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with strong arctic boundary into south central MT and warm front into south central SD. Upper level flow remains cyclonic over the Northern Plains mid week as persistent upper low remains over central Canada.
The highest chances for rain and associated rainfall totals this week will mostly be across the northwest half of the forecast area. High pressure will continue to move off to the east while a low pressure system strengthens and moves from the plains to the Great Lakes.
402 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Upper level zonal flow eventually turns more southwest toward late workweek as a synoptic trough develops.
Should see some sharpening to the inverted trough off the NE FL coast with backed winds down to around Melbourne with light onshore flow from Vero Beach south undercutting the inverted trough. Lows should range from mainly the upper 40s across the interior to the lower to mid 50s near much of the east coast but slightly warmer for coastal Martin.
652 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Arctic High pressure will keep cold and dry air over the region through early Tuesday then begin retreating eastward. Surface and upper ridge off the Carolina coast with trough moving from the Midwest toward the Great Lakes region. Models do indicate a weak coastal trough Tuesday with moderately strong but shallow isentropic lift across the east Midlands during Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Deeper moisture remaining across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions near developing warm front.
617 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern tonight with VFR conditions expected.
954 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 High pressure will shift offshore of the Outer Banks tonight, but extend across the region through the weekend. Late evening surface analysis showed a pronounced coastal trough offshore with inland high pressure holding firm. Satellite shows the leading edge of thicker low/mid-level clouds offshore of the lower South Carolina in association with a push of isentropic lift atop the offshore coastal trough. These clouds will gradually move onshore early Tuesday morning and affect most of the lower South Carolina and upper Georgia coasts.
00 UTC surface analysis shows a 1041 mb high centered just east of Cape Henlopen, DE with ridging extending down the east coast of the US. As a result, a small pocket of near freezing temperatures is expected across portions of Southern Alabama into Southern Georgia.
648 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 There continues to be some reports of freezing drizzle across the area, mixed with flurries/light snow. Will reissue the SPS about freezing drizzle, mentioning a mix of FZDZ and flurries for much of the night. Reports with this band have been as expected with around a half inch on the low end and pushing 1. 5 to 2 inches on the high end. In addition, have just recently started receiving some freezing drizzle/mist reports along Highway 2 on the North Dakota side and the Grand Forks/Fargo metros (and areas in between). Roads around the area don't sound like they are being impacted much but will monitor for any concerns besides some slight visibility restrictions and freezing on windshields.
402 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Mostly cloudy and warmer with some gustiness cropping up. Even more so overnight as the gradient tightens and the low level jet picks up. Some of the cloud bases are already lowering as the lower levels moisten as well.
621 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 High pressure will shift offshore of the Outer Banks tonight, but extend across the region through the weekend. Inland high pressure to the north will weaken and shift off to the northeast while a coastal trough off the FL/GA coast shifts northwest toward the SC coast. Lows will depend on the amount of cloud cover and given the uncertainty we took a blend of MOS guidance which indicates mid to upper 20s north and west toward the Pee Dee/Midlands/CSRA ranging to the lower 40s around the GA coast.
A weak cold front will push through the area this evening.
Drier air associated with a weak cold front will lead to improving flight conditions across northeast OK after 12z Tuesday and eventually into western AR by 18-21z. Strong cold front passes through the region Thurs with early day high temps likely for a good portion of the forecast area as a faster frontal timing continues to be favored. Given the typical model biases regarding temp trends this forecast favored the EC and Canadian temp solutions for late week through the weekend w/ doubt cast on the much warmer GFS and its ensembles.
Cold front has cleared our CWA this afternoon. as the main upper level trough and secondary surface response slide into far Western Upper Michigan. Main upper level trough and surface response will swing thru our CWA tonight. Secondary trough sliding thru tonight may very well make up for loss of diurnal heating. NAM12 is the only short term model that tries to develop some scattered light rain showers across our SW CWA as the trough moves thru overnight. Will keep Saturday dry as well as high pressure/subsidence and drier air build into the region. Conditions will be noticeably cooler and less humid tonight and Saturday. High pressure slides directly overhead Sunday night, resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Given the deep layer dry air in place, will likely see some of the cooler locations dip into the upper 40s.
1148 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016 18Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA on northern periphery of 594 dm ridge centered over Texas. Southwest flow along the western periphery of a nearly stationary H5 ridge will continue to usher in monsoonal moisture Saturday night and early Sunday.
654 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front slides through the region today. High pressure Sunday.
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front just to the north of the Mid-South.
255 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 The mid/upper ridge remains firmly in place across the Southern Plains while the Forecast Area remains on the southern fringe of the prevailing westerlies. This warm frontal segment may provide a focus for deep moist convection across south central KS on Sunday afternoon and evening while other storms may develop along the I-70 corridor. Temperatures will begin to rise, returning to more seasonable values in the low to mid 90s over southern KS while highs remain well below normal across central KS.
229 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Slightly milder and notably less humid airmass will settle over the area through the weekend as high pressure builds southeast from the northern plains/Canadian Prairie Provinces within northwest flow regime in wake of mean upper trough axis now progressing gradually off to the east.
356 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Upper ridging continues over the region with an upper trough moving over the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ Upper ridging continues over the region with an upper trough moving over the Pacific Northwest.
We still have the main upper level low pressure over Vancouver Island today. Another short wave trough will rotate around the base of the trough into northern California.
132 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will move south across the area tonight.
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until a cold front completes its passage this morning. High pressure will bring dry and less humid weather for the rest of the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning with the approach and passage of a cold front. Building high pressure should bring a clearing trend with lowering humidity levels after frontal passage.
515 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Low to mid level ridging is expected to remain centered near the Red River/ARKLATEX for the next several days, while the ridge aloft continues to gradually erode.
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible this morning as a cold front finishes moving through the region.
409 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 The heat advisory has been extended to include the lower parts of the parishes near the coast in Southeast Louisiana and now covers the entire warning area. As we move into the new work week things get a little more uncertain as a trough of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has a 20 percent chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 30 percent chance through the five day period. Troughiness remains along the coast and should continue for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms continue to fire along this boundary and move east along the trough interface.
548 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cumulus is expected to develop this morning with the 850 mb thermal trough over the region. Slightly milder and notably less humid airmass will settle over the area through the weekend as high pressure builds southeast from the northern plains/Canadian Prairie Provinces within northwest flow regime in wake of mean upper trough axis now progressing gradually off to the east.
Northern MI finds itself influenced by stacked low pressure in far northern Quebec, and high pressure extending from central Canada to the upper MS valley. The high will exert a stronger influence as we move forward, veering winds a bit more northerly in response by tonight. Our airmass will otherwise tend to dry out steadily, as high pressure builds into the upper MS valley.
Upper ridging will remain along the high Great Plains with an upper trough over Hudson Bay. This yields nwly flow aloft and slow moving high pressure from the nrn Great Plains to MN for today and tonight.
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Quiet weather continues through the short term with a large area of high pressure building from southern Manitoba this morning into central Minnesota by Sunday.
An upper low will slowly move across the area over the next few days, bringing a chance of showers and slightly below normal temperatures.
324 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest and northern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area today and tonight as high pressure slowly moves into the Great Lakes. Dry high pressure will have the influence over the forecast area beginning Sunday and stretching into the first part of the work week.
Upper level low has pushed off into Nevada this morning with plenty of dry air in place.
327 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2016 A cold front over western Pennsylvania will move across the area this afternoon. High pressure returns for the first part of the week. Areas of fog are currently being observed west of the Blue Ridge. 03Z surface analysis showed low pressure over Quebec with an attendant cold front across NY and western PA back into southern MO.
For Saturday, skies should stay mostly cloudy, north of a cold front that will continue to be near the Oklahoma border. A warm front will try to lift northward into parts of south central Kansas on Sunday with an upper wave, then move back as a cold front on Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 90s in parts of south central Kansas with this front, and be around 90 at Dodge and Garden City, to the low to mid 80s across the I-70 corridor.
153 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front slides through the region today. High pressure Sunday.
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front arrives overnight with a few broken lines of showers and thunderstorms. Not every location will see rainfall overnight, but all will see cooler weather for the weekend. High pressure will build into the region by Sunday with a return to dry weather and slowly warming airmass. Cold frontal boundary currently pushing southeast across the region. Morning cloud cover will diminish as diurnal mixing develops in the cold advective regime behind the cold front. Northwesterly winds will bring in drier air and cooler temperatures. 850 mb temps down to around +14C by the afternoon will result in high temperatures in the low 80s.
142 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 No high impact weather tonight or Saturday as high pressure begins to move into the area.
216 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front slides through the region today. High pressure Sunday.
425 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible this morning as a cold front finishes moving through the region.
230 AM PDT Sat Aug 6 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move into the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
449 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Convection currently ongoing across Northern Oklahoma and Arkansas are moving southeastward towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley, but this activity should stay well north of the CWA. Changes in the persistent upper level ridge will result in a more northerly or perhaps northeasterly flow aloft, which could bring some of these showers and thunderstorms into Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana early Sunday Morning. In addition, model guidance suggests a cold front will back door into the area during the day Sunday.