Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging will remain to our north for the rest of the work week however the bigger factor of the weather across the area will be the Saharan Dust Layer that will be over the area. As we get into the weekend we see moisture increase as an upper level low start to drop down from Canada into the Mid Atlantic states. This will result in the ridge heading south this weekend.
Showers and storms are starting to diminish as the moisture is being pushed south from the strengthening high pressure. Overall, high pressure will continue to strengthen and dominate the mountain west area. The high will begin to shift further northwest as we move into Thursday.
A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain. Fair weather cumulus fields along the higher terrain with a few cumulus cloud streets east of the I-25 corridor are the only features to note. The biggest change to the forecast is the high pressure seems to have stalled out in roughly the same area it is today, which keeps the monsoon moisture plume west of our area. CAMs and HI-RES hint at a storm or two developing along the higher terrain along the instability axis.
Satellite imagery this morning depicts a low pressure circulation off of the coast of northern California and Oregon. Southwest flow persists on Thursday as the low off the West Coast just slides a little further north.
/TW/ Tonight through Thursday night: Weak upr lvl trough axis draped across the Lower MS River Valley has been a focus for slow-moving shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon. As the trough axis continues to drift south by Thursday, better rain/storm chances will shift south and east toward the Gulf Coast.
654 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this evening well south of Pittsburgh as a slow moving cold front exits. A second cold front crosses Thursday, bringing isolated showers, but it will also bring a drier, more refreshing air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. It is this boundary which will provide the real push of cooler and drier air to the region. A shower or two may linger along the southeast ridges at sunset as the front crosses, but these will then quickly exit.
Afternoon convection will be possible one again as a slow moving cold front moves through the state but too scattered in nature to mention in the TAFs at this time.
Thunderstorms will develop again over the high terrain hours by the 18Z hour, expanding in coverage thereafter.
appears similar to today with the Atlantic ridge axis continuing to influence our weather. Afternoon highs will reach the low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s inland. An increase in storms over all the areas with loss of fair weather ridge.
Northerly flow will persist as high pressure builds into the area on Thursday with some degree of diurnal cumulus (mainly sct). A stacked low pressure system over Hudson Bay will help steer the weather locally through the end of the week. A trough will rotate around the low this evening helping to push a cold front down through the Great Lakes tonight. There will be a 90 knot upper level jet diving in behind the trough and signals of a weak impulse over WI rippling along the front between 5-10Z during its time over SE MI, so there is some support to keep a slight chance of showers going.
632 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Dry and pleasant conditions are expected tonight before a weak cold front moves into the area on Thursday. However, a weak cold front will drop into the area tomorrow. The high pressure currently over the area is limiting any moisture return into central IL, and combined with weak forcing along the front, any showers and storms are expected to be isolated, mainly from late morning through the afternoon. Another area of high pressure will build into the region after the fropa on Thursday. As the high shifts east, southerly winds will return and bring warmer temps back into the area.
718 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this evening well south of Pittsburgh as a slow moving cold front exits. A second cold front crosses Thursday, bringing isolated showers, but it will also bring a drier, more refreshing air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. It is this boundary which will provide the real push of cooler and drier air to the region. A shower or two may linger along the southeast ridges at sunset as the front crosses, but these will then quickly exit.
810 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Dry and pleasant conditions are expected tonight before a weak cold front moves into the area on Thursday. High pressure is centered over Manitoba this evening with ridging extending into portions of central Illinois. However, a weak cold front will drop into the area tomorrow. The high pressure currently over the area is limiting any moisture return into central IL, and combined with weak forcing along the front, any showers and storms are expected to be isolated, mainly from late morning through the afternoon. Another area of high pressure will build into the region after the fropa on Thursday. As the high shifts east, southerly winds will return and bring warmer temps back into the area.
739 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 High pressure will continue to promote dry weather through this evening and most of tonight. A passing cold front will bring a few nuisance showers early Thursday.
A cold front will move across the region on Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms which could bring temporary reductions in CIGS and Visb but only have enough confidence for PROB30's for now. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 68 86 63 / 40 70 40 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 67 83 60 / 40 70 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 83 65 82 60 / 50 70 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 80 63 80 55 / 60 70 10 10 0 TN.
633 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving southward through Central Texas along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
1053 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 High pressure will continue to promote dry weather most of tonight. A passing cold front will bring a few nuisance showers early Thursday.
1058 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Yet another cold front dropping into the area may produce a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, though any precipitation should be scattered to isolated. Drier and less humid conditions arrive Thursday night into the weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. A mid-level trough moving in through the Great Lakes pushes any remaining deep moisture into the Southeast US. A secondary front associated with the trough quickly slides through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley throughout the day.
758 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this evening well south of Pittsburgh as a slow moving cold front exits. A second cold front crosses Thursday, bringing isolated showers, but it will also bring a drier, more refreshing air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. It is this boundary which will provide the real push of cooler and drier air to the region. A shower or two may linger along the southeast ridges at sunset as the front crosses, but these will then quickly exit.
556 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Upper level ridging is in place over the western CONUS with troughing in the eastern portion of the country. A backdoor cold front is due to enter the region late Thursday due to the deepening trough to the east. The atmosphere will be still be dry in the low levels, so the chances of precipitation forming is limited.
805 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Bermuda ridge axis across North-Central FL directs a SSE flow across much of west-central and southwest FL.
An Atlantic ridge drifting south over mainland Florida will start to gradually pull wind speeds down overnight while continuing to funnel SAL air in from the east. From synopsis, a ridge axis associated with high pressure off the Southeast coastline will slowly dip southward today and tonight, resulting in slackening east to southeast breezes. As an upper- level trough approaches the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the week and into the weekend, breezes will slacken further, becoming light to gentle.
620 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Another cold front will pass Thursday afternoon with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, during an otherwise mainly dry period.
756 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Yet another cold front dropping into the area may produce a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, though any precipitation should be scattered to isolated. Drier and less humid conditions arrive Thursday night into the weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. Lingering deep moisture as associated with the exiting trough will keep scattered showers and storms confined to far south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky through the evening hours. A mid-level trough moving in through the Great Lakes pushes any remaining deep moisture into the Southeast US. A secondary front associated with the trough quickly slides through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley throughout the day.
(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Deeper drying is expected through Thursday as upper flow becomes more northeasterly as the mid-level ridge axis expands and shifts south across the southern Plains. The center of the Colorado ridge is expected to gradually shift southeast toward the region through the weekend.
913 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this evening well south of Pittsburgh as a slow moving cold front exits. A second cold front crosses Thursday, bringing isolated showers, but it will also bring a drier, more refreshing air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. It is this boundary which will provide the real push of cooler and drier air to the region. A shower or two may linger along the southeast ridges at sunset as the front crosses, but these will then quickly exit.
A strong upper low can be seen on water vapor imagery continuing to exit to the NE off the coast of Oregon, while a drier mid to upper level airmass streams in from the SW in its wake. Ridging aloft will try to build in from the east over Northern California as the low continues to retreat to the north. Cooler interior temperatures will persist for another day thanks to the departing low and wildfire smoke, but inland temperatures are forecast to warm starting tomorrow.
457 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Current WV analysis shows an upper level low off the PNW and the upper level high over CO. Flow between these two systems are advecting meager monsoonal moisture at the midlevels from the desert SW, up and over the upper ridge and into the Northern Plains. Am issuing Heat Advisories over portions of the western SD plains for tomorrow afternoon where heat indices will reach into the low 100s. There is the potential for isolated showers/storms to develop in NE Wyoming and portions of NW South Dakota behind the low, though dry air may preclude these chances.
639 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Upper ridge is currently centered over the Central Rockies with the weak upper impulse that was over the Ozarks the last few days, now approaching the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, storms are developing near and south of the Red River along a very weak surface boundary which is also in the highest PW axis. Not much is expected to change through Thursday with the upper high shifting very slowly east. By Fri afternoon the upper high will be situated over eastern CO/western KS which will allow warmer 850 temps to also shift east.
629 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) The short-term continues to maintain the chances for showers and thunderstorms, as the remnants of a weak low pressure remain situated over the region. Highs tomorrow should range in the low-90s to upper-80s. Unfortunately, overnight cloud cover should keep most areas insulated, so look for lows tonight and tomorrow to drop down into the low to mid-70s.
The wave moves to the east tonight and the ridge rebounds over Montana on Friday with mainly dry weather and highs well into the 90s in most areas and near 100 in some locations.
(Today through Friday afternoon) A broad upper ridge remains in control across the west-central US this morning, currently centered across the central Rockies. Highs this afternoon will once again peak in the mid 90s for most, with 80s in the higher elevations and 100s confined to along the Rio Grande. Little change in the positioning of the ridge as we move into Friday suggests tomorrow's high temperatures will be nearly identical to todays, perhaps a degree or so warmer with less cloud cover expected.
Large scale subsidence from the high pressure will be the dominant factor keeping the Panhandles dry.
331 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Discussion/Marine A cold front will continue to move south across our area early this morning and bring scattered light rain showers to our southeastern fcst area through around daybreak. Canadian high pressure building se into our area will bring fair wx with mostly clear skies tonight through Friday. Some mid to high level cloud cover will move in from the west Friday night well out ahead of the low pressure system moving into the upper Midwest.
Similar to the past few nights, calm winds and surface temperatures approaching dewpoints and crossover thresholds will yield some patchy fog this morning mainly in the low- lying areas and river valleys. The western ridge builds east over the Plains today through the weekend resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
We've been watching the tail end of a cold front slowly drop southwest across the area today. The parent low this cold front originates from is clear up over Hudson Bay, so it's losing steam and lacks the forcing and moisture to do much more than produce the post frontal cu/accas field that has been slowly diminishing through the day. This will keep the best rain chances suppressed to our south and west, with any activity trying to make its way out of the Dakotas likely to run into a wedge of dry air associated with the dry high pressure to our northeast.
Another round of potentially heavy rain is on the way today as an upper trough digs across the lower Quebec/northern Atlantic region, and a cold front stretches from Boston to Little Rock.
The pattern changes very little over the next few days as high pressure aloft remains centered over the central High Plains region through Friday night. Near surface flow remains south to southeast across the forecast area through Thursday night with high pressure in place across the eastern plains and a low pressure area over the central Rockies. That low pressure area deepens into lee trough over eastern Colorado Friday and Friday night that will begin to turn winds more south to southwesterly with speeds increasing and becoming gusty during mainly the afternoon hours.
1146 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Upper ridge is currently centered over the Central Rockies with the weak upper impulse that was over the Ozarks the last few days, now approaching the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, storms are developing near and south of the Red River along a very weak surface boundary which is also in the highest PW axis. Not much is expected to change through Thursday with the upper high shifting very slowly east. By Fri afternoon the upper high will be situated over eastern CO/western KS which will allow warmer 850 temps to also shift east.
Conditions will remain mostly steady-state through the rest of the morning, as this high pressure system continues to slowly shift to the SE overhead. Temps near 50 across the cooler interior spots will likely fall a couple more degrees into the upper 40s - otherwise, locations where some wind is still present and along the lake shores will remain in the low to mid 50s. High pressure will dominant the weather today as it shifts directly overhead by this aftn.
307 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 06Z surface data has a weak cold front running from Lake Erie west to the South Dakota/Nebraska border. North of the cold front dew points were in the 50s. Through sunrise and mid-morning quiet conditions will be seen as the cold front slowly moves south through the area. After midnight showers and some thunderstorms will develop along a new warm front across central Iowa.
907 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Strong high pressure centered over the central Rockies, will send another round of Monsoonal moisture or way, beginning tomorrow, and continuing into the weekend. These are the result of some scattered, strong thunderstorms that were roaming the Lower Colorado River Valley this evening.
1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Dry and pleasant conditions are expected tonight before a weak cold front moves into the area on Thursday. High pressure is centered over Manitoba this evening with ridging extending into portions of central Illinois. However, a weak cold front will drop into the area tomorrow. The high pressure currently over the area is limiting any moisture return into central IL, and combined with weak forcing along the front, any showers and storms are expected to be isolated, mainly from late morning through the afternoon. Another area of high pressure will build into the region after the fropa on Thursday. As the high shifts east, southerly winds will return and bring warmer temps back into the area.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected Thursday afternoon with a reinforcing cold front. Dry weather is then expected through the weekend under high pressure. Showers S of MGW should end overnight as a quasi stationary front exits the area as a cold front as the flow aloft becomes NW. Dry weather is expected elsewhere overnight as sfc ridging briefly builds in. A deepening upper trough is expected to track across the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region Thursday, as a reinforcing cold front crosses the area from N-S. A shower or two may linger along the southeast ridges at sunset as the front crosses, but these will then quickly exit.
Areas in southwest TN and northern MS have the best chances for seeing rain today, with the highest possibility being in the afternoon hours. The upper level ridge is currently situated over the CO/WY state border and is expected to stay in place over the next few days. The upper level trough that is situated over the eastern portions of the US will strengthen over the weekend, allowing the dry air to stay in place for several days.
(Today through Friday) The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Central Rockies/High Plains today through Friday. A mid level impulse and surge of deeper moisture rotates around the Ridge and over our area. Locally heavy downpours are also expected due to the high PWs and possible slow storm motions. "Cooler", slightly below normal high temperatures are expected both days due to increased cloudiness and areas of rain.
As a cold front moves across east Tennessee today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop with the greatest coverage between 19-23Z.
300 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a reinforcing cold front.
Western and west-central SD will continue to feel the effects of the ridge through the short term. A high pressure system over Manitoba will push towards the southeast later on tonight. This is allowing for cooler air to flow into the area and keeping temperatures comfortable. As the low and front start to push east, another wave of showers and thunderstorms are possible again early Friday as a LLJ sets up across the CWA early Friday morning through the late morning hours.
Temperatures will gradually increase each day as the heat dome from upper level high pressure center expands eastward across Kansas.
/33/ (This evening through Thursday Night) The short-term continues to maintain the chances for showers and thunderstorms, as the remnants of a weak low pressure remain situated over the region. Highs tomorrow should range in the low-90s to upper-80s. Unfortunately, overnight cloud cover should keep most areas insulated, so look for lows tonight and tomorrow to drop down into the low to mid-70s.
Tonight will see temperatures dip down into the 60s with some of the normally cooler locations getting close to the upper 50s for the coolest night of the period.
122 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 High pressure will prevail tonight.
1221 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving southward through Central Texas along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
This is in response to a slowly degrading area of low-level high pressure that has been stubbornly planted off the Southeast for the past several days. Skies are partly cloudy across the island chain, and temperatures have dipped to near their minimums of the lower 80s at most island communities.
/issued 805 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022/ Bermuda ridge axis across North-Central FL directs a SSE flow across much of west-central and southwest FL.
142 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Yet another cold front dropping into the area may produce a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, though any precipitation should be scattered to isolated. Drier and less humid conditions arrive Thursday night into the weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. A mid-level trough moving in through the Great Lakes pushes any remaining deep moisture into the Southeast US. A secondary front associated with the trough quickly slides through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley throughout the day.
344 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Two cold fronts cross from north to south through the Mid Atlantic region, the first today and the second tonight. expect scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the first front today then cooler and drier air arrive in the area by Friday morning.
Meanwhile, Td readings in the lower and mid 70s were common along and south of the fnt, along with a few showers. The overall upper flow pattern rmns highlighted by an upper ridge centered ovr the eastern Rockies, and a deepening trof over the Great Lakes and northeastern U.
Storms today will tend to favor the higher terrain with flash flooding once again possible. With the expectation of slow moving storms favoring the higher terrain, limited the Flash Flood Watch today to mainly the higher elevation zones of Clark, eastern San Bernardino, Mohave, and Lincoln Counties.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the 70s before warming up closer to normal, in the low 80s, for Friday. The upper level pattern will remain relatively stagnant as ridging over the central Plains persists. A few outliers continue to indicate the potential for high end (1-2") heavy rainfall probabilities, but this is generally on the lower end (10% chance) of the probability spectrum. Following this system, high pressure once again looks to build into the region.
With a ridge over the western CONUS and a trough over the east, we will be under northwest flow aloft for much of the period. A better chance for more significant rainfall comes tonight through Friday night as a short wave trough moves across the area.
303 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Currently, an upper trough over the eastern US is amplifying northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley and is finally pushing the quasi-stationary front, that has been in the region for days, south through central Kentucky. Behind the front, skies are clear and will remain that way into the early afternoon hours, but later in the evening into the overnight hours, a second more progressive cold front will rush south through Indiana. Today, high temperatures reach into the low to mid 80s. High pressure behind the front will clear skies, and north-northeast winds will usher in lows in the 60s across much of central Kentucky. Our southern Indiana and northern Bluegrass counties will likely drop a little cooler with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s.