Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper trough near the Four Corners region to continue moving north and east across the central Rockies into the central Plains states today. A weak cold front will move through the forecast area by late this afternoon. Another upper trough or closed upper low is forecast to lift north and east out of the Great Basin region and southwestern states tonight and approach the Panhandles by Saturday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. As the the upper low tracks across the Panhandles Saturday night.
There is a dense fog advisory in effect for the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser River Basin until 18Z, and this will remain in effect as well.
Although air/road temps will be above freezing across most of the region, parts of north central and far northeast WI will likely have air/road temperatures slightly below freezing for a while late tonight into Saturday morning. This will result in patchy freezing drizzle, but probably not enough to warrant a headline at this time. On Saturday, an upper low/trof will shift northeast across the state, with the best forcing pushing through our western counties. Aside from the previously-mentioned threat of freezing rain in our northwest counties in the morning, rain will be the primary pcpn type, as temps slowly climb into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Easterly low level flow on the northeast side of the low pressure system has keep low ceilings and fog a little longer into the day. Once the low pressure system passes to the north, models show low level moisture wrapping back into northern KS. Precip chances should increase through the early evening over north central KS as the upper low moves into central NEB. Once the low passes, the forcing for precip will diminish along with the precip chances. Lows tonight are expected to be in the 30s, or slightly warmer than the previous forecast thinking the low clouds would hold in for the most part.
Then over the south/southwest will see lowering vsby as the upper level low moves north with light rain and advection fog. With warmer air moving in Saturday.
101 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A mild airmass will settle across the region today in the wake of a warm frontal passage.
332 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 High pressure will remain over the area tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region on Saturday.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough from the Four Corners region to northwestern Mexico with southwesterly flow over Texas. An upper level low will close off over the panhandle Saturday and into Oklahoma Saturday night. A Pacific cold front will move through the region Saturday night.
1248 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 Aviation A surge of warmer air is bringing the rain to the area this morning.
Slightly cooler on Sun as thermal trough is shunted eastward but still unseasonably mild with concensus blends offering low/mid 50s.
The low clouds and fog will not be leaving anytime soon as southerly flow and snow melt will keep the environment very moist. Could see patchy freezing drizzle as colder air moves into the region from the west.
Aside from some high clouds, mostly clear skies this evening should allow freezing fog to redevelop overnight in many of the same areas that experienced it this morning. A low pressure system off the Pacific northwest coast will send a few waves of energy and moisture into western Montana and central Idaho beginning Saturday.
The low clouds and MVFR ceilings are likely after 21/03-2107Z.
316 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 The first in a series of upper level waves associated with an active Pacific pattern and general troughing over the Northwest has moved through. Despite this, little has changed as the area remains in a southerly moist advection regime, maintaining the low clouds. Another wave move will across the area tonight, helping to lift a warm front northward and shifting winds to the southwest. This transition will be gradual, from south to north, but should help scour out the low clouds and fog. Another wave will track south of the area Saturday as deeper troughing develops over the center of the country.
Another upper low, however, will be developing in the Panhandle Saturday, and strong southwest to west winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected to develop late morning across the Concho Valley and Big Country. A few light showers are possible Saturday, mainly in the afternoon, as mid level moisture wraps around the upper low.
/issued 333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/ Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while another trough comes over the West Coast. This second trough looks stronger and will reach the area by Saturday developing a closed low over the Panhandle.
Per high res models, this development should continue along a deformation axis associated with a negatively tilted trough moving onto the plains at this time. Some local wet accumulations mainly on grassy areas are possible elsewhere across the lower elevations today.
Additional showers are possible during the day on Saturday, with an increasing chance of thunderstorms by late afternoon and especially Saturday evening into the overnight hours as main H5 trough swings out of the Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley.
1054 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 Water vapor shows large upper trof along the west coast, with lead short wave ejecting through the Four Corners. At the sfc, trof is located over cntrl SD with weak cdfnt shifting east of the nrn/cntrl Rockies. Temps will be cooler than yesterday, but still a few degrees above average. Could see a bit of light snow across far nwrn SD Saturday night as moisture wraps around newly formed upper low over the upper midwest.
This evening a warm front will lift north across the CWA as a southwesterly LLJ noses into the area. Saturday, we will finally rid the area of the stratus and with moderate WAA highs will rise into the lower 50s to lower 60s. A cold front will move through the area Saturday night.
RMcQueen The upper level low responsible for winds on Saturday will be rotating out of the region overnight with the slight possibility of some light wraparound moisture rotating into our northeastern counties. Should precip not develop during the day on Saturday, optimism for precip during the overnight hours will not be high as the low levels will not have proven successful in saturating.
Upper ridging is moving in from the west with the axis over us early this afternoon. A light sprinkle can't be completely ruled out under the low clouds but those would not be anything measurable. Highs in the low to mid 60s still look reasonable.
Have conflicting guidance with the GFS suggesting warmer temps with deeper mixing while the NAM limits mixing to around 1200 ft. Tilly A powerful storm system that will come onshore to southern California this evening will enter a pattern of a longwave TROF that dominates much of the western CONUS.
1231 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 Rain has returned to the region with a crossing trough of low pressure.
216 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 A continuation of low clouds/fog/areas of light freezing drizzle across mainly central North Dakota is the theme for the short term period. Far western North Dakota will mostly be detached from the worst of the fog and any freezing drizzle threat at this time. The result will be for more of the same with clouds/areas of fog and light freezing drizzle initially. BUFKIT soundings indicate supercooled water droplets in the saturated layer with enough vertical motion for light freezing drizzle. High temperatures Saturday will be similar to Fridays, especially with the low cloud canopy remaining overhead.
Early this morning one mid-level trough was lifting northeast out of the area with water vapor imagery showing the next disturbance centered over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this warm front, plenty of low-level moisture was present across the region with satellite imagery showing the entire CWA blanketed under low stratus. While there is still some model uncertainty with when exactly this low-level moisture will diminish today, short-range model soundings have been trending toward this moisture lingering over the area through much of the day before the warm front begins to lift northward over the area. With some lift noted with the low-level moisture in model soundings, expect periods of drizzle to persist through much of the day, particularly across north central to northeast KS.
Despite this, atmosphere remains mild, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Strong cyclone will pass just south of SW KS Saturday night, close enough to spread its deformation precipitation into the southern counties, mainly along and south of U.
Despite this, atmosphere remains mild, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Yet another trof is progged to move across the Southern Plains over the weekend.
Anticipate the trend to continue with possible breaks in the clouds, more so later in the day with temperature climbing into the low 70s.
With the snow levels rising some this afternoon and surface temps maybe rising only briefly above 32, should see some areas of light freezing rain. Freezing fog has been of the decrease, and have cancelled the freezing fog advisories in the Gorge, Oregon Lower Basin and the Kittitas valley. The freezing fog advisories in the Yakima valley and the Washington Lower Basin should be able to drop off at 10 AM. Updates focused on adjusting snow levels and freezing rain locations. Also adjusted freezing fog areas and some high temps as well.
327 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 WV imagery shows an upper trough ejecting NE thru the Central Plains. only to be replaced by a closed low forecast to develop and move/strengthen from the west coast to the Texas/OK Panhandles over the next 24 hours. Very strong westerlies are forecast to round the base of the trough Saturday.
A closed low presently sitting off the coast of the Pacific Northwest remains encased in a broad upper trough extending eastward from the western coast of the U.
An upper trough will pass across the region today with the bulk of its energy passing south across Colorado. Mainly dry Saturday and Saturday night as the upper flow becomes northwesterly on the top side of an upper ridge that will move across the desert southwest.
Latest H5 analysis depicts an upper ridge axis from roughly the Florida Keys northwestward to southern Indiana. Meanwhile a longwave trough axis is located across the Plains, with southwest flow resultant over the local area. The upper trough will progress east overnight, enhancing southwest flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across southern portions of the region early on Saturday, with a better chance in the afternoon and evening as a closed upper low moves across the Texas panhandle. Large hail will be the primary threat with severe storms, as CAPE centers in the favorable hail growth region with favorable height falls aloft as the upper low progresses east. The severe threat will come to an end Saturday night, but showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the end of the weekend as the upper low transits over the region.
In response, overcast low clouds have persisted into this afternoon across northern Oklahoma, which has impacted temperatures, keeping them cooler, through this afternoon. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts to around 30 to 35 at times will be possible through this afternoon, relaxing this evening as the low exits eastward across Kansas with its parent 500mb short wave. Overall, classic return flow from the Gulf will be brief, if much at all, with available moisture carried eastward by the trough.
Weak orographics will keep scattered snow showers over the higher mountains but any additional snowfall tonight would be under an inch. A strong jet streak across the western states will push another quick moving negatively-tilted upper trough over Colorado on Saturday. Expect another 1 to 3 inches of snow for the high country.
Although weak mid-level subsidence currently exists in the wake of a trough which impacted our region yesterday, low-level warm advection will support a broken-overcast deck of low stratus clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles through mid-afternoon. The dry period will not last long, however, as another round of rain pushes into the area late tonight in response to the next upper- level system exiting the base of the western CONUS trough. That changes around midday with the approach of a weak warm front, which creates much more instability but far less low-level shear (though still-impressive deep-layer shear).
Areas of dense fog will continue through early morning especially for areas across central Missouri and the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees warmer than average.
219 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 Latest upper analysis shows an upper trough currently affecting the northern plains. Lift associated with the upper trough and the N-S oriented baroclinic zone will continue to produce light snow or flurries into this evening over parts of northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota.
Per RAP/HRRR soundings, the low level moisture/fog will be maintained through tonight; however, the far west will most likely see the least impact. Latest HRRR keeps fog over the area through the day into tonight, and latest sounding analysis is quite reluctant with mixing the low level moisture out with light winds. In the short term concerns continue to be dense fog and the potential for freezing drizzle as the low levels are saturated with relatively dry air aloft. Surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the James River Valley will also complicate the drizzle/freezing drizzle forecast this morning. The Metro model at Medina mp 231 on I-94 keeps the road surface below freezing through 9 am CST so the potential for drizzle may be east of this area and freezing drizzle west.
Record highs at South Bend and Ft Wayne are in the low to mid 60s.
These will be cold systems, with heavy accumulations of snow across the high country.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase area wide Saturday and Saturday night as an upper level low moves out from northern New Mexico across the Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma.
Messy surface pattern with broad area of low pressure across the central Plains with a weak low center over sw KS with another over far eastern KS.
In the low levels, an evolving area of low pressure over the central and southern High Plains today will develop into eastern NE/western IA late tonight/early Saturday, in tandem with the parent upper-air system. West or northwest downslope flow in the low levels and the potential for slightly greater diabatic warming (compared to previous days) will yield afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s.
For tomorrow, middle level ridge axis extends N to S along the east coast. This coupled with increasing instability and the return of significant moisture to the lowest 300 mb of the atmosphere will help to generate shower activity that is expected to push from SW to NE across the area through the day.
H5 analysis indicates a weak perturbation over northern Utah lifting northeast attm, this in advance of a progressive trough impacting coastal CA. Models continue to agree that the track of this wave will carry the bulk of the energy across the lower Colorado River Valley into the desert Southwest late today through tomorrow morning, shifting this broad diffluent area overhead. Passage of the mid level trough axis tomorrow will likely enhance snowfall rates along the Wasatch Front/I-15 corridor tomorrow morning into the afternoon, with modestly unstable northwest flow in wake lasting into the early evening hours.
A cold front is currently exiting the district but scattered showers are expected to continue today in the unstable airmass behind the front.
931 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Warm front located from northern Illinois to southern Ohio will move northward toward northern Ohio today. This boundary is expected to move across the area this evening with a cold front following closely behind for the overnight hours. The cold front may not move east of the Ohio/Pennsylvania border until late thursday afternoon.
As the upper level low moves across northern Minnesota this afternoon, the cold pool aloft will progress to the east as well. A short wave trough coming out of the northern Rockies will start to deepen as it moves onto the High Plains. There should be some weak moisture transport late Thursday night into the warm front and with 2 to 3 ubar/s of up glide on the 300K isentropic surface, a band of showers and storms could get going along the warm front.
As an upper low and associated cold front moves into the eastern U.
1009 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
Mostly clear skies dominate across interior Northern California with high pressure centered over SoCal. High pressure rebuilds into Northern California Thursday and into the weekend, leading to continued hot weather.
The cooler marine air coupled with a weak upper level disturbance and a frontal system will bring showers to the area starting this evening and continuing into Thursday. A strong upper level ridge will expand into Western Washington starting Thursday night and peak over the weekend -- resulting in dry conditions and much above normal temperatures. The upper level ridge that resulted in a warm day across the region on Wednesday is now well off to the east of the area and low level pressure gradients are onshore. Onshore flow will gradually taper off on Thursday as the front pulls off to the east and ridging aloft starts to build onto the west coast.
Models show the trough weakening today at the mid levels, and a little more atmospheric stability developing aloft. Latest model solutions show better agreement regarding the erosion of the trough at around 500 mb starting on Thursday, with a mid- level ridge trying to build over the area. But with sea breezes and daytime heating continuing strong, the presence of the mid level ridge should not have a significant adverse impact on afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity through the upcoming weekend. This is mainly due to a mid level trough that develops over the eastern US and digs southward into the Gulf, shifting the deep layer winds across the area to a more southerly flow.
The low level ridge axis has shifted a bit north which will allow the sea breeze to push inland more quickly and lead to a collision with the west coast breeze west of Orlando early evening.
843 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances for tonight and Thursday. Dry and warm weather can be expected today under slowly- eroding high pressure.
Happy first day of Meteorological Summer! Even though seasonable overnight lows were in the low to mid 60s across the TN Valley, it felt a little bit more muggy than yesterday morning. The higher PWAT values around 1. Temps are also slightly ahead of yesterday's trend with obs at 15z in the lower 80s. High temps will be near yesterday's values reaching the lower 90s across the board.
Surface analysis has a high pressure system across eastern Wyoming. The high pressure system in Wyoming this morning will settle into the area today and later tonight will move to the east. Temperatures will drop to the lower 50s with the light winds. The main upper trough will be over the Great Lakes, but another disturbance will move southeastward into the trough and pulling energy across the Central Plains.
The subtropical ridge is rooted well east of Bermuda and extends west across the Florida peninsula, albeit much weaker on its western flank. Temperatures are climbing into the mid 80s and dewpoints remain in the lower to mid 70s. The forecast calls for a slight chance of showers and storms, although we feel this will be confined mainly to the Lower Keys.
939 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure builds in from the north and shifts offshore tonight. A warm front will approach by Thursday morning increasing the chance of showers.
/issued 344 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/ SW flow aloft continues across our region, as an upper low cut off from the main jet continues to drift slowly E across N Mexico/SW CONUS.
Expecting VFR conditions to persist into Thursday with high pressure gradually sliding into WI. With the higher lingering low level moisture other isolates showers/thunderstorms are not out of the question. The Storm Prediction Center has much of southeast Wisconsin in a marginal severe for the re-development along the cold front this afternoon. Overall, it looks like a very pleasant day with some sunshine and highs in the low to middle 70s.
The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1016 mb high pressure system centered at Tallahassee.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Precipitation associated with an upper low moved to the east overnight. Thermal ridge during the day will warm temperatures to near 80 in most areas.
944 AM PDT WED JUN 1 2016 High temperatures will rise throughout the week as high pressure builds aloft.
One last impulse rotating around the low may expand pcpn band a bit farther south in Mn this afternoon before departing.
By afternoon, heating should destabilize atmosphere and upper low impacts will move into area.
1148 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Warm front located from northern Illinois to southern Ohio will move northward toward northern Ohio today. This boundary is expected to move across the area this evening with a cold front following closely behind for the overnight hours. The cold front may not move east of the Ohio/Pennsylvania border until late thursday afternoon.
1200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Canadian high pressure will build into the region today, and will move east of the area Thursday.
convection will increase across northern sites as a cold front approaches from the northwest. a stalled cold front is currently located across southern MO. the cut-off upper level low should be moving into SW TX. The closer proximity to the dynamics of the low will bring showers and thunderstorms chances CWA wide.
The pressure gradient will weaken through the day today as high pressure building across NE shifts a ridge over our area, but still could expect some 20-25kt wind gusts through early afternoon. Warmer air will be on the return later Thursday. More zonal flow-subtle ridging will move through the Dakotas Thursday night aloft.
In the afternoon, maintained the dry forecast as surface ridging is in charge. High pressure will move through the Northland Thursday night, providing a relatively clear and cool night.
A weak surface trof stretched out along the Mississippi River this morning will drift eastward today.
Additionally, a weak cold front was located just to the west of the area. The weak cold front will gradually shift across the area today and will be the focus for shower/thunderstorm redevelopment by late this morning into the afternoon, as instability increases.
High pressure aloft, along with an increasing westerly flow, will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
634 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Surface and upper level low is situated over far northwest Minnesota with wrap around moisture extending back into central ND. Cyclonic flow transitions to broad ridging this afternoon west, and into central Thursday as mid to upper level height rises commence.
The surface boundary will eventually sag farther south as a slow moving upper low ejects out of the southwest. The upper low is forecast to stall across TX late this week and possibly drift even farther south which should shift the shear axis out of the area.
and Thursday showers will end in eastern wisconsin shortly after sunrise but scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in northern and eastern wisconsin this afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Models indicate that the highest PW values this afternoon will be over the Plateau with readings around 1. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 68 89 68 / 40 20 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 67 87 67 / 20 20 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 89 68 87 65 / 30 20 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 85 64 / 40 30 60 50.