Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Still looks like we will see a significant warm-up today as skies will be sunny thanks to an upper ridge building into the area. We will also have a favorable warm-up southwest wind direction now that high pressure has moved off to the east. Forecast soundings are showing mixing up to 850mb which favors going above the warmer GFS MOS temperatures in most locations.
536 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW PASSES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LOW QPF AND RELATIVELY LOW POPS. PARTICULARLY TO SUNDAY HIGHS AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. VARIOUS MODELS AGREE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NEAR INDIANA.
WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.
1001 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON A LEE TROF WILL INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. /ISSUED 351 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/ TODAY WILL BE REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ALDRICH EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OUT WEST AND A PERSISTENT LOW UP NEAR HUDSON BAY.
1002 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. /ISSUED 551 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016/ VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH AROUND 5 TO 10 MICROBARS OF LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.
639 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SLIDES EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.
954 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EMBEDDED WAVE FROM VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE MAIN TROUGH OVER EAST CONUS. DAMPEN RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER INTERIOR ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. 18 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES TO SE OREGON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AND IN IDAHO/S HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN EVERY FEW DAYS.
1005 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 35 66 47 / 0 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 34 64 46 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 54 35 65 47 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 28 61 43 / 0 0 0 20.
This ridge will continue to move downstream over the Plains and Lower Missouri Valley today. Temps will be cooler (generally in the low to mid 60s) as cold air advection gets underway by early afternoon across much of the area.
649 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U. LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL AID IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
Skies will be mostly sunny today, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 70s, except across far southern counties where some upper 60s will occur. Temperatures will be considerably warmer tonight, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Southwest winds will increase to 25 to 35 mph mainly near and east of Garden City to Elkhart, with lighter winds west nearer the trough. Model dewpoints look to high especially with the new NAM model, and have used the lower Allblend dews which look more reasonable. The only record could be at Garden City with 76 degrees, while other records are in the low to mid 80s. Skies remain mostly clear with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s west of Dodge City to the mid and upper 40s east. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and in the low to mid 60s. Warmer mid 60s to around 70 will be near the Oklahoma border from Liberal to Medicine Lodge.
552 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT THIS WARMER AIRMASS TO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST SPOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE A COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
1044 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING MAXIMUMS TO REACH NEAR 65. MINS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER 70S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION (WHERE ICE IN CLOUDS MAY BE SCANT) MAY LINGER EARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WITH MID 40S REPORTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN AND W-CNTRL AR.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING PAST THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SRLY WINDS. ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS OCCURRING AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS.
455 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR WHERE YESTERDAY'S ONSHORE FLOW CREPT INTO. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING GOING AND AFTER BOTTOMING OUT THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT A FEW LOCATIONS. RIDGE SLIDES EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND VARIABLE WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LL MOISTURE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT A LITTLE LARGER AREA OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 AM SUNDAY (MAINLY SOUTH) AS S/W SWINGS THROUGH IOWA UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER SETX SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
551 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
AND SUNDAY SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EXTREME NORTH. HOWEVER EVEN THIS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE LOW LEVELS. IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE EVENT. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL BETTER MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
528 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO IOWA TODAY WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
Northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains is aiding in development of high plains lee trof through the day today. Strong cold advection early Sunday still leads to a cooler day, but CAA backs off in the afternoon for highs in the lower to middle 60s.
SUN: SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREE OFF MAXES. SUN NIGHT-MON: QUICK SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRENDS ARE A BIT WARMER.
629 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
High pressure over South Alabama will move east today into the region. Light onshore winds this afternoon along the coast will keep temperatures there in the low to mid 60s.
549 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPIKE WELL ABOVE 10C. EXPECT SOME GOOD MIXING OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DIMINISHING SNOWPACK WILL CAP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THE 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS CONCENTRATED THERE.
437 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING OVER PARTS OF E TX AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS FARTHER SE ALONG COASTAL LA/MS. UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUSTAINED WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THIS WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
924 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW PASSES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LOW QPF AND RELATIVELY LOW POPS. PARTICULARLY TO SUNDAY HIGHS AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. VARIOUS MODELS AGREE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NEAR INDIANA.
404 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPIKE WELL ABOVE 10C. EXPECT SOME GOOD MIXING OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DIMINISHING SNOWPACK WILL CAP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AREAWIDE. BUT HAVE CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THE 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS CONCENTRATED THERE.
406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO IOWA TODAY WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING ON IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. MOS GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGHS TODAY WITH 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO LOW. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
CU RULE INDICATES SKIES SHOULD STAY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DAY. /ISSUED 437 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
507 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO CLOUDS OR MOIST LAYERS WILL KEEP VFR SKC THRU MOST OF THE TERMINAL FCST CYCLE AREAWIDE. BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING OVER PARTS OF E TX AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS FARTHER SE ALONG COASTAL LA/MS. UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUSTAINED WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THIS WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WARM WESTERLY FLOW IS ONGOING THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPERIENCE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. SO THE LOWER ALBEDO SURFACE WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TODAY. AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
732 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS. THESE SHOULD LAST JUST A CPL HOURS AS THE SPPRTG TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SOME NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL MAY REALIZE U30S FOR EVENTUAL LOWS. LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTY COASTS AND U30S POSSIBLE OVER NORMALLY COOLER/RURAL LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL IN THESE COOLER AREAS THAT REALIZE U30S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER EARLY SUN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD. THE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR NICE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL DEPART OVER THE WRN ATLC BY EARLY MON. DRYING AND COOLER DURING THU INTO FRI WITH ONLY A LIMITED COOL DOWN (IN THE 50S) EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST STATES WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WL BECOME POSITIONED JUST N OF THE AREA SUN.
914 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
851 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES. HEIGHTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U. LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL AID IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WINDY AND WARMER WITH SUNSHINE SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS W TX.
718 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S AND 60S. BUT THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COOLER. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE/COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM IN RESPONSE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 437 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
FORECASTERS SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL IMPULSE/TROF AXIS SWINGING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER DELTA. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST.
1023 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH TONIGHT TAKING A POSITION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH EXCELLENT RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT WILL GO A SHADE BELOW GUIDANCE RESULTING IN TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AREAWIDE.
THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST TODAY RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVER OUR CWA BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING MAXIMUMS TO REACH NEAR 65. MINS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY.
358 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MONDAY.
1252 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DWINDLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
319 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015 At 08Z regional radars showed what appears to be precip in a zone of mid level deformation within the trough axis across NEB. The mid level trough and associated shear axis is progged to gradually move to the east and south along with a weak surface boundary. However given the high PWs and warm airmass, it would not take much for these slow moving storms to produce some good amounts of rain in a short period of time.
SHORT TERM: (Through This Afternoon) Upper level HIGH remains anchored over the southeastern CONUS early this morning and maintains the SW flow aloft over our region. A light southerly flow prevails as temps are in the low-mid 70s.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
356 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEAR GA COAST TODAY/TONIGHT.
A BUCKLE IN THE FLOW TUESDAY BEHIND TODAY'S SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WEAK RIDGING.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE.
147 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO OUR REGION AND WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS FOUND OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS NE-SW ORIENTED TROUGH. A DISTINCT PUSH OF LOWER THETA-E AIR ON LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WAS NOTED ACROSS NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT POPS WERE LOWERED A FAIR AMOUNT OVER OUR NWRN COUNTIES TODAY AS THIS LOWER PWAT AIR TAKES GRASP. BUT ELSEWHERE A SMATTERING OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY- DRIVEN TSTORMS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. TUESDAY COULD STILL SEE SOME POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE MORNING AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER OR CLOSER TO THE SLOWLY WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
1253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF ELY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS OF 23Z. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA-GEORGIA BORDER THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. REACHING THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GEORGIA- SOUTH CAROLINA UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT WESTWARD. THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID IN DRYING THE AIRMASS OUT A BIT FROM THE CURRENTLY WATER-LOGGED 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE TO ABOUT 1.
THEN REFORM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF INTRUSIONS OF COOL AIR BEHIND COLD FRONTS WILL SCARCELY HAVE ANY THERMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA.
WITH STRONG STACKED SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 16/12Z. A STRONG STACKED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL.
925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE IN THE LOW/MID TEENS CELSIUS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS GENERALLY DRAPED FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES AND WILL LIKELY KEEP A FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OVER OUR REGION.
MAX TEMPS ON SUN WERE SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT IN THE VALLEY. BUT WERE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MTNS. WARMER THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPS CONTINUED AWAY FROM THE DELTA.
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. KEPT THE LOWS AROUND 70 TONIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH.
A STRONG STACKED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL.
WITH UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
The second half of the week will be breezy and cooler with showers remaining over the mountains.
MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE OVER GA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TUE WHILE ENABLING HIGH TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. ADVERTISED 15-20% RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 IN NE FL AND WEST OF WAYCROSS IN SE GA DUE TO THERMAL TROUGH. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TUE TO 20-30% DUE TO HIGHER PRECIP WATER CONTENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 IN NE FL.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SHOULD TAP INTO A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. NHC FORECASTS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS LOW DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.