Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
605 PM CDT Sat May 9 2020 (This evening through Sunday) Another cool night is expected tonight, although somewhat warmer than this morning thanks to the return of southerly winds. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma after midnight tonight bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Between this airmass and expected mid-level cloudiness, high temperatures will be cooler again Sunday compared to today. Models are showing a little more of a QPF signal, although with the highest humidity in the column being at around 700 mb, the GFS and ECMWF QPF amounts may be a little aggressive.
High pressure over the area will keep weather dry and warm through the weekend.
/22/ Tonight and Sunday: Though areas of cirrus have continued to stream over the area and cold air advection has prevailed, temperatures have still managed to warm well into the 60s with the high May sun angle.
/issued 316 PM CDT Sat May 9 2020/ High pressure remains centered over the Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon. A quick moving cold front will then move into the Mid-South by mid-day Sunday.
615 PM CDT Sat May 9 2020 A record breaking low temperature this morning at KCI/KMCI as temperatures fell into the lower to middle 30s across the CWA. This feature will bring a cold front through the area late tonight and will aid in continued cool weather through early this coming week. Convergence along the incoming front, and increasing lift ahead of the upper trough, has resulted in some scattered showers over Nebraska. Limited moisture in the lower levels will prevent much in the form of rainfall, but may be able to squeeze out a couple of hundredths of an inch over northern Missouri.
352 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Quiet near-term conditions are expected across the region as high pressure builds south out of Canada. Frost will gradually decrease after sunrise and temperatures begin to warm above freezing. A few isolated locations in southwest Nebraska may see a high in the low 60s, but this will be few and far between. In addition to cooler temperatures, gusty southeast winds up to 20 to 30 mph as well as increasing clouds, are expected during the afternoon in advance of the next system.
The high pressure will keep temperatures well below average with readings in the 40s for most locations. Increasing cloud mid level clouds will keep the southwestern CWA slightly warmer. Monday will be dry, and slightly warmer with highs reaching the upper 40s, to the low 50s.
Disturbance moving through the northern Gulf continues to push high clouds into the area as temperatures fall into the low to mid 40s with a few outlying locations in the upper 30s. High pressure will remain in control of the region today and tonight with high clouds from the Gulf continuing to drift over the area. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 70s with low temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s.
1231 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 (This evening through Sunday) Another cool night is expected tonight, although somewhat warmer than this morning thanks to the return of southerly winds. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma after midnight tonight bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Between this airmass and expected mid-level cloudiness, high temperatures will be cooler again Sunday compared to today. Models are showing a little more of a QPF signal, although with the highest humidity in the column being at around 700 mb, the GFS and ECMWF QPF amounts may be a little aggressive.
Some pockets of lower level clouds are already taking shape in the LRD to DRT areas and this moist layer may build down to the boundary layer if the KDFX VAD winds represent the lower level flow farther south. As tonight's min temps will probably start off about 3 to 5 degrees warmer off those of this morning, expect to see most areas return to a Monday high closer to climate norms for mid-May.
308 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A surface cold front now over central Missouri and southeast Kansas will move south through the area during the morning hours. Skies will clear behind the front and a cooler air mass will move in this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The center of the high will remain north of the area, but clear skies and lighter winds will occur with the cooler air mass. With the center of the high not being directly over the area, winds may not go completely calm but they will be on the light side.
With the deep trough over eastern CONUS and favorable radiational cooling, temperatures will drop to around 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal average, into the 30s and 40s. This will drive a reinforcing cold front through the area early Monday morning. Temperatures will remain below normal this period with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday night and cooler on Monday night with lows in the lower to mid 40s. The upper flow pattern will be zonal through mid week and then weak ridging builds over the area through the end of the week.
Cirrus associated with a trough across the Gulf should continue moving through our region overnight and with winds becoming light later tonight, this should result in ample radiational cooling. Overnight lows will likely be a few degrees cooler than what we saw this morning with temperatures likely falling through the dewpoint.
312 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Cold front with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday.
Temperatures are on track to drop into the lower 30s across much of NE TN and SW VA, with some upper 20s in the mountains and SW NC. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 44 66 43 67 / 0 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 42 62 41 64 / 0 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 42 62 40 64 / 0 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 38 57 37 61 / 0 20 10 0 10 NC.
Temperatures are much warmer this morning compared to yesterday as southeast winds bring in more low level moisture. Late in the week the upper flow transitions to southwesterly as a trough moves along the U.
High pressure aloft centered over the western Great Basin will move east across Utah on Sunday. Somewhat cooler weather with a chance of showers will arrive midweek.
Closer to the ground, a cold front marked mainly by a shift in wind direction to the north is pushing across the Oklahoma Panhandle and will continue to work south through tonight. This low-level jet will also increase the potential for low cloud development at or shortly after sunrise across the Caprock and have increased cloud cover as a result, but not gone totally cloudy just yet as confidence on coverage and timing remains iffy. Jordan Ongoing convection will be possible across northeastern NM late tomorrow evening as a disturbance moves across the upper ridge to our west. Better convection chances will come Monday afternoon/evening as the disturbance moves overhead and the upper ridge amplifies to our west putting us under northwesterly flow aloft.
A new cold front will drop south into the state this morning.
148 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Canadian high pressure will crest overhead this morning, then drift offshore to near Bermuda by this evening. A moisture-starved cold front will cross the southern middle Atlantic late tonight and early Monday.
The upper pattern shifts into the mid week with a modest ridge pushing east into the Plains. Have current lows in the lower to middle 30s but too little confidence for frost inclusion yet.
Convection on the higher terrain of central New Mexico is likely this afternoon. A subtle upper level short wave trough is progged to move across the forecast area during the morning, possibly generating some elevated convection as it does so. However, with the exiting upper trough and associated subsidence, this solution seems rather uncertain. Focus then shifts westward, likely into eastern New Mexico, where abundant moisture and another short wave trough will combine to produce what should amount to fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms that will then translate to the east and southeast across the forecast area Monday night. Given the uncertainties for the daytime hours, will back off the higher end PoPs of the model init and favor chance PoPs in line with MOS guidance. Chances should ramp up overnight with the higher PoPs favored for that period.
120 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 The cold front is on its way through the region this afternoon and scattered showers have been present across much of the area through the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Across our far northeastern areas across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, there may be some slight chance PoPs late Sunday and Sunday night as the surface cold front moves across the area, but overall, most locations should remain dry and mostly clear. With longwave troughing remaining across the Eastern CONUS, temperatures remain about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
332 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 (Today and Tonight) Slightly warmer temperatures are in store for this afternoon with highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
338 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A fast moving cold front will cross the region today, resulting in winds becoming westerly and very gusty. A cold front will slide through the area today with isolated to scattered showers pushing east early. Given how dry the lower layers of the atmosphere are right now, the precip amounts will be quite light. Combined with the mid level trough also rotating through the area, additional isolated to scattered showers will return for the late afternoon and evening hours.
228 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the western Dakotas.
309 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Cold front with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday.
Its associated cold front will swing through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later this afternoon between 18-00z. Afternoon heating along with forcing from the cold front could lead to t'storm development with the scattered showers this afternoon. Initial scattered showers and possible storms may form a broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Synoptic winds will also increase through the morning and the afternoon ahead of then behind the cold front. In the wake of a strong (by May standards) cold front, temperatures Monday afternoon will only climb into the mid and upper 50s for many locations.
358 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 *Frost headlines will continue for a couple more hours this morning across central KS where temperature have fallen into the mid to upper 30s* High pressure will settle overhead today with lingering cloud cover that will make for a cool Mother's Day across the region.
A low pressure system will bring chances for rain today and tonight. Scattered showers in western Illinois were ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This afternoon, a cold front will sweep across the area. The highest chances will be across the eastern forecast area, which will have the longest time to have some instability build. After the cold front passes, additional forcing will remain in the area with an upper trough moving in. Went a little cooler than the NBM for highs, but if some sun where to break out ahead of the front temperatures might get a little warmer than expected.
A large upper low situated over the eastern Dakotas continues to bring a cyclonic flow aloft across the forecast area through Sunday night. A northwest flow aloft will continue Sunday while high pressure ridging will build over the interior Pacific northwest. Daytime highs will actually be slightly cooler than today. Sunday night into Monday an upper low will be along the Pacific northwest coast allowing for the upper flow to become more southerly. Highs on Monday will be cooler yet, with mainly 40s across the forecast area.
/Today though Monday/ Northwesterly flow aloft will help to bring a weak cold front through the region today. However, there is very little in the way of cold air with this ridge. The slight increase in warm air advection will be offset by increased cloud cover, so daytime high temperatures should be similar to today, but may be a couple of degrees cooler over Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas where the clouds cover will be the greatest.
333 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Its a bit warmer than last night across the Midsouth. Morning lows should be in the low to middle 40s across most the Midsouth.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region. Low temperatures will be a little warmer overnight which highs on Sunday will remain about the same as today. Upper level ridge and thermal trough over the region today, with a wave or two of cirrus currently flowing over the region. North to northeasterly winds associated with thermal trough developing this afternoon, subsiding by the evening. Expect this trend to continue through tomorrow, with upper level ridge and thermal trough beginning to weaken as upper level trough approaches the shore. Late Sunday, southwesterly flow aloft will setup over the region as ridge slowly pushes east. Sunday night into Monday, upper level trough will begin to nudge up against the coast, with moist southerly flow in place and instability increasing over the region.
1228 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 (This evening through Sunday) Another cool night is expected tonight, although somewhat warmer than this morning thanks to the return of southerly winds. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma after midnight tonight bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Between this airmass and expected mid-level cloudiness, high temperatures will be cooler again Sunday compared to today. Models are showing a little more of a QPF signal, although with the highest humidity in the column being at around 700 mb, the GFS and ECMWF QPF amounts may be a little aggressive.
Currently, we remain within a northwest upper flow pattern with broad high pressure at the surface.
Weak high pressure over the region will keep things dry with mostly clear skies through this evening. We will see a dry cold front sweep through the state late tonight which will help reinforce the cool airmass we have in place across the southeastern U.
The high center wl cont working to the E tngt, with sfc winds gradually veer to the S/SE. A reinforicing shot of cooler and drier air wl follow an asscod CDFNT that wl persist into early Mon.
307 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Canadian high pressure will crest overhead this morning, then drift offshore to near Bermuda by this evening. A moisture-starved cold front will cross the southern middle Atlantic late tonight and early Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb troffing over the TX coastline and the western Gulf of Mexico will move east away from TX. This will allow 500 mb ridging to build back over the RGV steadily throughout today and Mon. Surface ridging spreading SE across the central and eastern U. This will also increase the low level moisture return across the RGV.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as high pressure moves east, while low pressure heads for the Great Lakes. Monday will be a few degrees cooler.
1232 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 High pressure and dry weather will give way to shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening as an upper disturbance and reinforcing cold front cross the region. With the advance of the cold mid level trough, lapse rates will steepen with resulting destabilization supporting an increase in thunder potential as evening approaches. That threat will end with cold front passage this evening. Another surge of cold air (-4 to -5c at 850mb) with the front will support a change/mix with snow for some areas by Monday morning, especially along and north of I 80 and the higher elevations.
High pressure will continue over the western states on Sunday with the ridge axis shifting east of our area.
1035 PM CDT Sat May 9 2020 A record breaking low temperature this morning at KCI/KMCI as temperatures fell into the lower to middle 30s across the CWA. This feature will bring a cold front through the area late tonight and will aid in continued cool weather through early this coming week. Convergence along the incoming front, and increasing lift ahead of the upper trough, has resulted in some scattered showers over Nebraska. Limited moisture in the lower levels will prevent much in the form of rainfall, but may be able to squeeze out a couple of hundredths of an inch over northern Missouri. The northwest flow pattern will continue through Monday before the pattern starts to shift towards zonal then more southwesterly as ridging builds over the Plains by mid to late week.
Another closed low was over southern Saskatchewan, also dropping southeast. To the west, a strong ridge was in place from CA up into the Yukon territory. On Sunday, look for decreasing winds during the day as high pressure at the surface builds toward our area from the north and west. That previously mentioned area of high pressure will build across eastern NE and western IA Sunday night, with lows dropping into the upper 20s or lower 30s at most locations in the area.
320 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 High pressure and dry weather will give way to shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening as an upper disturbance and reinforcing cold front cross the region. Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather by weeks end. With the advance of the very cold (-27 C at 500mb) mid level trough, lapse rates will steepen with resulting destabilization supporting an increase in thunder potential as evening approaches. With forcing for ascent via DPVA in advance of that cold core, showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely as the surface cold front encroaches late this afternoon and crosses this evening. That threat will end with cold front passage this evening. That system will pull another cold front across the area and maintain restrictions in showers and stratocu into Monday morning.
412 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Cooler temperatures begin settle into the region, with highs only rising into the upper 40s to near 60 today.
537 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the western Dakotas.
354 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 A cooler air mass remains in place for all of Sunday, in response to northwesterly flow aloft and southeasterly flow at the surface. This cooler airmass will bring quite a bit of cloudiness to the region Monday along with a chance of showers.
High pressure at the surface will slide east of the area today, allowing for a SE/SSE return flow by this afternoon. The result will be a warmer day with plenty of sunshine, and highs in the lower 70s across most of the valley. An upper-trough will swing from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a dry cold front into the Tennessee Valley by 12z Monday.
High pressure will be the dominant feature for Northeast Montana. Upstairs, the flow is generally from the northwest as we're caught between the trough over the Eastern US and the ridge that extends from the Four Corners to the Pacific Northwest. The ridge begins to flatten some on Monday which will allow low pressure, currently over the Great Basin, to begin to move.
/issued 332 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Slightly warmer temperatures are in store for this afternoon with highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
There is an upper level trough to the northwest moving out of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front associated with this trough extends from near Chicago to the south to near St. Highs today will still be below normal but warmer than yesterday with temperatures rising into the 60s. Winds will be breezy at 10 to 20 kt from the WSW this afternoon ahead of a cold front late in the period. Across our far northeastern areas across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, there may be some slight chance PoPs late Sunday and Sunday night as the surface cold front moves across the area, but overall, most locations should remain dry and mostly clear. With longwave troughing remaining across the Eastern CONUS, temperatures remain about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
A reinforcing cold front will move south across the area today.
631 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A late freeze has taken hold across our forecast area early this morning with many sites including our office now reporting temperatures at or below freezing. Expect clouds will increase from southwest to northeast through the night and may be enough to prevent a 2nd night of freezing temperatures in many areas. However, the wind will be light and should we clear out even briefly for a couple of hours it would likely be enough to send temperatures below freezing again. Widespread cloud cover with light rain will probably keep us above freezing, but still pretty cold with lows in the mid 30s.
Rumbles of thunder have been more frequent than previously anticipated, with modest CAPE and unimpressive lapse rates on the morning XMR sounding, however cooler temps aloft has allowed convective growth, again mainly along the immediate coastline this morning.
A weak cold front will move south across the area today resulting in northerly surface winds, but speeds will remain less than 10 kts. /Today though Monday/ Northwesterly flow aloft will help to bring a weak cold front through the region today. However, there is very little in the way of cold air with this ridge. The slight increase in warm air advection will be offset by increased cloud cover, so daytime high temperatures should be similar to today, but may be a couple of degrees cooler over Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas where the clouds cover will be the greatest.
A more subtle trough stretched from just north of the Arrowhead east across Northern Ontario. The southern trough will continue to trek away from the Northland today while the northern trough slowly sags southward and eventually phases with the southern trough by this evening over Lower Michigan. Cold air advection in the wake of the northern trough will keep temperatures well below normal for today. Overnight lows will dip into the teens in the Arrowhead and the low to middle 20s elsewhere. Highs remain below normal with readings in the low and middle 40s in the Arrowhead and the low 50s in the St.
Onshore flow will increase Monday as an upper trough nears the area.
High pressure will remain in control of the region today and tonight with high clouds from the Gulf continuing to drift over the area. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 70s with low temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s.
609 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A fast moving cold front will cross the region today, resulting in winds becoming westerly and very gusty. A cold front will slide through the area today with isolated to scattered showers pushing east early. Given how dry the lower layers of the atmosphere are right now, the precip amounts will be quite light. Combined with the mid level trough also rotating through the area, additional isolated to scattered showers will return for the late afternoon and evening hours.
Clouds will start to increase in the afternoon with some models showing a bit of convection for the higher terrain across Colorado while others keep us dry.
Temperatures will begin to trend lower later today and Monday as cooler onshore flow moves into the region.
A mainly dry cold front will cross the area with broken VFR cigs at times this afternoon.
High pressure, clear skies and temperatures in the 70s. /issued 333 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ Its a bit warmer than last night across the Midsouth. Morning lows should be in the low to middle 40s across most the Midsouth.
535 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning for early morning low temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 30s.
Cooler temperatures begin settle into the region, with highs only rising into the upper 40s to near 60 today.
/issued 333 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ Its a bit warmer than last night across the Midsouth. Morning lows should be in the low to middle 40s across most the Midsouth.