Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A deepening mid level trough, currently located over eastern Montana, will continue to dig and eventually take on a negative tilt and close off over North Dakota today. At the surface, low pressure will start to develop over the southwestern part of the state. Rapid cyclogenesis will take place as this low propagates quickly northeast across the state, eventually moving into southeastern Manitoba by this evening. The GFS has been consistent with very strong pressure rises as the low races northeast. A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet will spread across western and north central North Dakota as well as IFR conditions. The freezing rain, sleet and snow will impact KISN-KMOT route.
Upstream, a broad upper trough axis spanning most of the Rockies will graze the South Plains later today and serve to amplify dry SW winds. With no height falls or opaque high clouds progged in our CWA today, am dismissing the suspiciously cool MET guidance in favor of the drier and much warmer MAV. High temps within a thermal ridge bisecting our CWA from SW to NE may threaten daily records, more so at Childress where 87 degrees could fall. As the broad upper trough lifts even farther north this evening, a modified Pacific front will accelerate SE across the region ahead of even drier NW winds. Highs will be considerably cooler compared to today but the light wind speeds should make for a pleasant afternoon.
A weak disturbance rounding the base of the wrn CONUS trof is progged to move into the region later this morning, which along with good Gulf moisture will lead to scattered showers mainly near the ern terminals where moisture will be deepest. 5" today while lift will increase ahead of the incoming trough.
A cold Pacific trough will continue to cross the region today.
Cloud cover will gradually rise later this morning as daytime heating breaks through the lowest inversion layer. Surface onshore flow remains from the southeast around the strong ridge of high pressure along the eastern seaboard.
Further west, a deepening storm system over the western Dakotas will shift north into Canada by this evening with a cold front forecast to sweep across our area by Tuesday morning. The primary threat will be from damaging wind gusts around 60 to 65 mph (cells will be tracking to the east at 50+ mph!) with the higher probability for severe winds roughly along and west of a Peoria to Lincoln to Taylorville line this evening. Evening temperatures will be quite mild before the cold front sweeps across the area with the cooler temperatures moving in late tonight into early Tuesday, but even by then, readings will still be well above normal for early March. Tuesday will dry out in the afternoon, but the cooler temperatures will keep the highs in the 50s for the most part.
Better rain chances come tomorrow as a cold front works its way into the area.
937 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure centered across the northeast states will move southward and weaken as a cold front moves across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. High pressure will then settle across the central and southern Plains.
627 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure builds in from the north through today.
533 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Main concerns for the next couple days: rain chances tonight, mild temps becoming cooler for Tue. as latest 08z surface analysis indicates ridge of high pressure over the Ohio River Valley. Cooler air advects into the forecast area behind surface front Tuesday with 925mb temperatures falling into the plus 1 to plus to 5 degrees celsius range. This will result in high temperatures Tuesday to be in the lower to middle 50s. with a more amplified/broad upper level ridge working over the region for the weekend.
1006 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will crest over the area through Tuesday.
Will trend back toward IFR/LIFR most sites with a bit of improvement behind a cold front that will move across most locations by end of forecast. /ISSUED 330 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ Upper trough will cont to gradually shift east/southeast today.
An upper level trough moving across the Northern Plains allows a cold front to move across our area by early Tuesday. In addition, a piece of energy will break off the northern trough and cause the southern trough to elongate into Northwestern Mexico on Tuesday.
/issued 411 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ Unsettled weather will return to the Midsouth on Tuesday, before dry high pressure settles back in. An upper level height ridge that extended north through the MS River valley yesterday will lift east to Appalachians today. The approach of a partially closed upper low over the plains will provide a brief break long spell of dry weather, though some areas of the Midsouth will still likely miss out on beneficial rainfall Tuesday. Low level moisture will increase late this afternoon through early Tuesday, in advance of a Tuesday evening cold frontal passage. By the weekend, a longwave trof over the northeast U.
For today, an upper level ridge is forecast to build across northern Arizona causing dry weather, light winds and above normal temperatures.
Surface and upper ridge will move east today bringing in weak southerly flow from gulf region that will try and transport some moisture northward ahead of strong positive tilted short wave out in the plains approaching from the west. High pressure builds in behind frontal passage with off continent flow continuing remainder of work week into weekend.
1039 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A large area of high pressure will stay centered over the Eastern U.
641 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be situated east of the region with southerly flow developing for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will move through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Sharp mid level ridge to build into the region today. Highs to range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s far south. Expect lows to range from the lower 40s far east to the upper 40s west, where clouds will be thickest. Associated weak surface cold front to push southeast through ILN/s fa late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening. On the warm side of the front, expect highs on Tuesday to range from the lower 60s northwest to around 70 southeast.
631 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday keeping the region dry. The next chance for rain will be on Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the area. High pressure will build quickly back in the region and dry weather will return. Mostly clear skies with calm winds prevail over the region as high pressure at the surface with ridging aloft builds over the region. The ridge will shift east today and generate strong WAA over the region. Monday night temps will be fairly chilly as strong radiational cooling takes places and temps fall into the low 30s to mid 20s. With the strong WAA sfc temps will rise into the low to mid 60s.
717 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be in control of the weather through Tuesday bringing clear skies and light winds.
758 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A large area of high pressure will stay centered over the Eastern U.
549 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Surface and upper trof passing overhead this AM. A low level jet continues to result in gusty winds for the coteau, though these winds will continue to weaken as the trof passes through and the direction becomes more northwesterly. High pressure moves overhead for Tuesday.
The upper high pressure ridge which has brought several days of quiet and mild weather to the Midwest is now slowly shifting east, allowing for broad scale warm advection over the Plains ahead of a progressive upper trof. This upper trof is split between two main energy centers, one over southern Canada, and the other over KS/OK. With the broad upper trof approaching this morning, there is a clear signal we will see a transition from clear to cloud skies from west to east during the day today. Temperatures look to be cooler than this last week, with highs this weekend in the low to mid 50s.
A band of light rain is pushing into the CWA early this Monday morning, ahead of an elongated trough moving across the Central Plains. This trough and a series of embedded vort maxes will slowly move east through the area today and tonight. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today given cloud cover and precipitation influences, though readings will still be close to average.
/issued 436 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An unsettled pattern will continue during the next 24 hours as an upper level trough remains over the area. Also, clouds will break up some this afternoon and allow some instability to take place across the eastern 1/2 of the area and combines with low level moisture, dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
546 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the region through Election Day.
547 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Upper trough moving into the High Plains this morning has kicked off an area of showers over central and eastern KS. After this initial band of showers moves through most activity will be rather spotty for the rest of the afternoon thanks to a lack of organized forcing within the upper trough axis. Better chances for rain will develop from southeast KS into central MO after dark as an upper jet develops ahead of the upper trough axis swinging through.
Issued by National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 952 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 952 AM CST High pressure will remain in control over the region through the day Monday before departing later this evening. Some few to scattered mid clouds are expected later this afternoon as atmospheric moisture increases ahead of a cold front expected to arrive overnight and continue through the day Tuesday.
/Today through Tonight/ The main forecast concern was focused on timing of showers as a cold front and upper level trough transition across the state today. The large omega blocking high over the eastern CONUS looks to weaken or flatten with the 500mb trough entering the region by this afternoon and into the evening. May see some high based showers/virga this afternoon over the west before the lower levels saturate past 00z Tuesday. The highest pops are b/t 00-06z Tuesday over much of the CWA. The rain chances quickly diminish overnight tonight as the trough moves east.
403 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Surface and upper trof passing overhead this AM. A low level jet continues to result in gusty winds for the coteau, though these winds will continue to weaken as the trof passes through and the direction becomes more northwesterly. High pressure moves overhead for Tuesday.
A deep trough of low pressure in the Central Plains will produce partly to mostly cloudy skies with the possibility of afternoon showers at the aerodromes during the forecast period. Deep 500 mb troughiness extending from the Central Plains all the way through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce scattered showers for the BRO CWFA today and tonight. The approach and passage of a weak cold front on Tuesday, combined with the continued troughiness in the mid-levels, will allow the threat for scattered showers to remain in the forecast for that time. The ongoing trend of above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures will persist, with no significant cold air advection anticipated due to the passage of the cold front.
Satellite loops show a deep upper low spinning over the Gulf of Alaska this morning with a moist southwest flow aloft off the California coast. The latest HRRR model favors areas along the Highway 99 corridor from Merced to Fresno, as well as the fog prone areas along Hwy 198 from Hanford to Visalia. A strong upper ridge will quickly build in today across southern California and over the Rockies. The positively tilted ridge will remain in control through the week for dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
603 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will begin to depart farther away to the east today, allowing increasing southerly lower level flow. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase as early as this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the Plains. Surface dewpoints will also climb into the lower 50s in western Illinois. The blanket of clouds will help keep low temps warmer than previous nights, with temps bottoming out in the lower 50s for areas west of I-55, and in the upper 40s closer to the Indiana border. Well defined upper wave currently over southern Saskatchewan will dig as it crosses the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, while broad upper low over Kansas helps to draw Gulf moisture northward today.
633 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A building ridge of high pressure over the eastern continental United States will bring seasonally warm and dry conditions to the North Country through Tuesday, with abundant sunshine expected.
Although the dewpoint and temperature are the same this morning, a thick opaque cirrus deck is blocking good radiative cooling. The next system to affect our area moves onshore Tuesday night, but with an upper level ridge over the great basin the southerly jet remains offshore with the best dynamics remaining offshore and north of the forecast area.
With a ridge of high pressure over the eastern CONUS, southerly flow through the low and mid levels will increase moisture ahead of this approaching system. Lift and moisture ahead of the upper low will lead to at least a decent chance for rain across the area today, with the best chances expected tonight into tomorrow and favoring northeast Louisiana and southwestern portions of Mississippi. Given the high PWs, locally heavy rainfall could be possible in that area.
504 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Band of light rain showers is expected to develop ahead of a cold front moving through the region.
519 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be in control of the weather through Tuesday bringing clear skies and light winds.
618 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will crest over the area Today into Tuesday.
203 AM PST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will prevail for most of the upcoming week with dry conditions, light winds and above average daytime temperatures. High pressure will build across the southwest U. The ridge axis will remain to the south and east of the Sierra and western NV, which will allow areas of cirrus to continue spreading across the region.
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern today. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 47 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 43 70 48 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 73 43 70 48 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 38 68 46 / 0 0 10 40.
936 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A building ridge of high pressure over the eastern continental United States will bring seasonally warm and dry conditions to the North Country through Tuesday, with abundant sunshine expected.
Otherwise, gusty N-NE winds behind a backdoor cold front can be expected today across east central and northeast NM. The backdoor cold front will push through the central mountain chain overnight and create gusty east canyon winds at KABQ, though well below airport weather warning criteria. A weak backdoor cold front will drop into eastern New Mexico today. Strong high pressure will build over the Great Basin Tuesday, keeping storms well north of New Mexico through the work week. As a strong upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Basin, northerly flow on the east side of the high will send a weak backdoor cold front s/sw through eastern NM today and west of the central mountain chain tonight.
Mainly IFR conditions are expected at DRT where the low level winds are more unidirectional this morning. Most of the finer res models show more convective focus over the hill country later today, with some surface wind convergence resutling out of a weak surface ridging pattern over East TX. An upper level trough moving across the Northern Plains allows a cold front to move across our area by early Tuesday. In addition, a piece of energy will break off the northern trough and cause the southern trough to elongate into Northwestern Mexico on Tuesday.
The low level warm advection and saturation throughout the column could also lead to some drizzle across Central KS where the nose of the warm advection will be focused, but think most of the QPF amounts today will be very light. Expect dry and more seasonal type temps for the middle of the week, as the high pressure area in the northern plains settles across the region. As this slightly cooler air drops south, could see some patchy frost for most of Central KS for Wed/Thu morning as low temps drop into the lower 30s for Central KS. Not expecting any precip as this wave retrogrades as most of the low level moisture will remain cut off to the south of the area. Meanwhile a cold front will push southward across the region with low clouds persisting and winds switching to the north.
an upper trough extends N-S across the Central CONUS. Concur with the deterministic GFS that this trough will move east while tilting NE. Actually this upper trough is a composite of two upper troughs.
630 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure brings a stretch of dry weather through Tuesday.
645 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 Dry high pressure will will persist over the area through Tuesday.
907 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure brings a stretch of dry weather through Tuesday.
ahead of the broad upper trough that continues to drift E from Wrn KS S into the lower TX Panhandle. drier air aloft noted on the water vapor imagery should spread E into E TX beneath the upper trough today. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to become more positive tilted from OK SW into Wcntrl TX tonight/early Tuesday. an another upper trough amplifies and absorbs the Srn Plains trough as it digs SE across the Great Lakes region into the OH Valley. with the attendant H850 inverted trough lifting N into Cntrl/NE LA. This should focus sct convection Tuesday over these areas as warmer air just above the sfc is transported N. but the dry air entrainment aloft ahead of the positive tilt trough and the weak overall shear will again limit convection organization and QPF amounts.
high pressure stays another day before a weak front approaches on Tuesday.
The valley fog will dissipate by 18Z while the high level cloud cover will remain extensive through this evening. Seas will build further and wind speeds will increase a bit as a cold front moves through the waters on Tuesday night.
Cooler temperatures with breezy northwest winds are expected today behind the departing cold front.
430 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather for southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle through the upcoming week.
921 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week.
358 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2016 Upper trough which brought some precip to parts of the region yesterday was located over western Kansas. As the trough continues to move east, surface flow over the plains will take on a northerly component as a weak cool front moves south. Max temps today will be a bit cooler than yesterday, with highs generally topping out at around 70F along the lower ark rvr valley and L/M60s on the divides. Min temps will continue well above normal with lows remaining above freezing across nearly all of the plains, with lows mainly in the mid 30s, and 20s in the SLV.
851 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be in control of the weather through Tuesday bringing clear skies and light winds.
A cold front will move into the are this afternoon, and through all terminals by 08/03Z. Clouds and a few showers may stick around across the eastern Permian Basin where cooler temperatures reside. A cold front will arrive early Tuesday morning with gusty northerly winds and much cooler conditions. Meanwhile, a ridge will build over the top of this system and keep it nearly stationary to our southwest for several days. Models have come into better agreement with the placement of the low, but differ in their amount of moisture and precip across our region.
High pressure will bring dry and very mild conditions this week.
411 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Unsettled weather will return to the Midsouth on Tuesday, before dry high pressure settles back in. An upper level height ridge that extended north through the MS River valley yesterday will lift east to Appalachians today. The approach of a partially closed upper low over the plains will provide a brief break long spell of dry weather, though some areas of the Midsouth will still likely miss out on beneficial rainfall Tuesday. Low level moisture will increase late this afternoon through early Tuesday, in advance of a Tuesday evening cold frontal passage. By the weekend, a longwave trof over the northeast U.
948 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be situated east of the region with southerly flow developing for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will move through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night which will bring the next chance of rain to the area. Prev Discussion-> Sharp mid level ridge to build into the region today. Highs to range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s far south. Expect lows to range from the lower 40s far east to the upper 40s west, where clouds will be thickest. Associated weak surface cold front to push southeast through ILN/s fa late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening. On the warm side of the front, expect highs on Tuesday to range from the lower 60s northwest to around 70 southeast.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, A large area of high pressure over the Mid Atlantic United States will build southward down the Florida peninsula this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the Tennessee Valley today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure will be located over the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
Center of upper low was entering western Kansas early this morning, with water vapor and radar imagery suggesting multiple smaller-scale waves rotating around it. Initial wave around the low moves off early today, with drier air in the upper and mid levels filling in. The upper trough axis will move through early on Tuesday ending any precipitation across east central Kansas. Northerly winds are expected behind the cold front through the day along with decreasing clouds.
518 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A large area of high pressure will stay centered over the Eastern U.
Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures can be expected today and tuesday as strong high pressure builds over the desert southwest.
641 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week.
This area of high pressure is expected to slowly drift into VA/NC and expand southward as the day progresses. Sfc trof and weak convergent area is located over the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida, which will bring sporadic stray shower and/or sprinkles moving ashore today. Strong high pressure centered over New England and the Mid- Atlantic states will expand southward into our region today, resulting in a tightening local pressure gradient and gradually increasing northeasterly winds during the afternoon hours.
950 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the region through Election Day.
Rain chances will increase across the area today, with the highest chances expected around the KHBG to KJAN/KHKS areas by late afternoon and lasting through the night. With a ridge of high pressure over the eastern CONUS, southerly flow through the low and mid levels will increase moisture ahead of this approaching system. Lift and moisture ahead of the upper low will lead to at least a decent chance for rain across the area today, with the best chances expected tonight into tomorrow and favoring northeast Louisiana and southwestern portions of Mississippi. Given the high PWs, locally heavy rainfall could be possible in that area.
1024 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 Dry high pressure will will persist over the area through Tuesday.
1019 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure builds in from the north this afternoon. The high will become centered south of the local area on Tuesday.
In the wake of the passing dry cold front overnight, a low-level stratus deck is now moving from souther Saskatchewan into portions of northeast Montana.