Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night) NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to build in by Tuesday night. An area of low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a weak cold front thru the CWA Tue.
WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX REGIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT HSV.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE PERIODS.
A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon's temperatures. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near Bowling Green.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.
332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015 Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja overnight. After that a flat ridge builds across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work week. By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.
315 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015 04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER. WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA. HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL.
337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REACH THE LOW 60S.
WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
420 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD AS LARGE BUT WEAK LOWER- DECK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U. TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A WEAK LOWER-DECK TROF SETTLING S/SE SHOULD REACH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FORCE THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ENABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE KICT NEIGHBORHOOD.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO AN ISSUE AS 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH THEY COOL DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATION AND VERTICAL MOTIONS.
A PRE FRONTAL TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE ERN CWA MOISTENING THE COLUMN AND BRINGING A LITTLE SNOW. FOR ONEIDA COUNTY COOLER AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TWIN TIERS. AFTER THIS STORM PULLS OUT LATE TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN WITH DRY AIR.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS. IN THE LOW LEVELS. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND DAMPENS INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. WENT WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
614 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.
338 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AROUND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO PREVAIL. AND DECENT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REACH THE LOW 60S.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS AN H500 RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FAST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
644 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED. LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015 Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. dry and moderating conditions expected right through midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs.
/ISSUED 837 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FROM THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT. THE LOWS HAVE BEEN DROP DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TONIGHT INTO THE MID 50S WELL INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS. /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SOMEWHAT TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THUS WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. /ISSUED 249 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRE-COLD FRONT. AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS DEEP. COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 72 59 75 / 20 50 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 71 58 73 / 20 40 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 50 70 58 73 / 20 40 30 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 73 55 70 / 10 20 40 70.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ON AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HIGHLIGHTING DEEPER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
S/WV TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND REMAINING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM AREA BY 02Z. /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/ UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON.
659 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 FINAL STAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS UNDERWAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACRSS THE CONUS AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
1100 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
1015 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE WEAKER OF TWO TROUGHS AND ITS COOL FRONT WERE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE STRONGER TROUGH WILL PASS ON THURSDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -10C/12F WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL ZONES HAVE BUDDING AND FLOWERING VEGETATION THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE.
805 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THIS PERIOD WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI'S AROUND ZERO IN THE SW HALF PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES SE AND IS REPLACED BY A FLAT RIDGE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREAS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE MORE MILD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS OF EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
1150 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE. ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. AND SLOPED COLD FRONT ALOFT RISE/FALL COUPLET. THE ONLY PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT NE WITH WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NRN IA AND WEAK WAVE RIPPLING ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS.
QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST.
1201 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
1051 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS APPROACHING MINNEAPOLIS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUMP MOIST AIR NORTH INTO NE WISCONSIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MEAN FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD FEATURES GENERAL TROF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NE US WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
1127 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
932 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2015 Area remains under the broad circulation of a mid level closed low centered over southern Saskatchewan this evening. As the low over SK slowly moves SE east later tonight, moisture wrapping around to the north and west of the low will spread south into north central MT tonight while additional cooling aloft also moves in and winds aloft become more northwesterly. A disturbance aloft and a weak cold front will move across the area overnight.
1055 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Area remains under the broad circulation of a mid level closed low centered over southern Saskatchewan this evening. As the low over SK slowly moves SE east later tonight, moisture wrapping around to the north and west of the low will spread south into north central MT tonight while additional cooling aloft also moves in and winds aloft become more northwesterly. A disturbance aloft and a weak cold front continues to move across the area.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD SEAS.
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015/ Upper pattern looks to have primarily high pressure aloft over the region with zonal flow across the area.
A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AND EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER.
1231 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING.
907 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
724 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK AS A BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
903 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS APPROACHING MINNEAPOLIS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUMP MOIST AIR NORTH INTO NE WISCONSIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MEAN FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD FEATURES GENERAL TROF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NE US WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP TOWARD FREEZING OR LOWER OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE.
WITH MIXING KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING /LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S/. LATEST RAP/HRRR CONTINUE TO SHIFT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AXIS AND MAIN FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/ DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
/ISSUED 449 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/ EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO SRN MS VALLEY. TONIGHT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE W/NW DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE E. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION.
Cold front extended from east central South Dakota into northeast Colorado while the dryline extended from southwest Nebraska to the east of Liberal. Storms congeal into a line and move into north central Kansas after 7 PM and increasing across the western counties through 10 PM, then becoming widespread across the CWA as the upper trough and front move through. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees cooler on Thursday.
1116 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE. ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. AND SLOPED COLD FRONT ALOFT RISE/FALL COUPLET. THE ONLY PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT NE WITH WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NRN IA AND WEAK WAVE RIPPLING ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE REGION.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUMP MOIST AIR NORTH INTO NE WISCONSIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MEAN FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD FEATURES GENERAL TROF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NE US WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST NOW PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE PROMISE OF A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ON THU WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT GRIDS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WHICH AGAIN IS HANDLED WELL ALONG WITH THE LOW CLOUD AND FOG POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY. THIS MAY BE HINDERED THO BY MODELS SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE ENE.
728 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
1020 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF CHEYENNE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
1002 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 FINAL STAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS UNDERWAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
the NE/SD cold front and an area of accas from western KS into the TX Panhandle. Per latest RAP analysis and visible satellite imagery the airmass remains capped within the cold fronts baroclinic zone. The latter due to the southerly low level jet veering overnight and paralleling the cold front which could result in some post frontal training for several hours.
LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z.
THEN MVFR AS LOWER CIGS MOVE IN WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCLUDED VCTS AT CHA AND TYS AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME AREA THUNDERSTORMS.
AND WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E WITH THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH/STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN E OF THE AREA.
ESPECIALLY WRN/NRN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RUN A LITTLE BETTER. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A WEAK MID LVL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EAST WHILE A MODEST SHORT WAVE OVER TX APPROACHES. WITH THE DEPARTING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND INCOMING DISTURBANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE STRADDLING SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.
THEN, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE HI-RES MODELS ARE DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE (WARMER TO COOLER). WINDS WILL VEER TO SW BY 12Z AND INCREASE TO 13 KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS (POSSIBLY 20 KTS) AFTER 17-18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
/ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/ THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE PROVIDING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE IN WARMER/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INCREASING AND SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION.