Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Closed upper level low, currently spinning over AR (per latest watervapor satellite imagery), will get nudged north/northeast over the next couple days. thanks in part to a 300 mb jetlet moving northward in the lee of the low.
308 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 It will be a wet short term as an upper low gradually lifts north from near the Ozarks up to the Great Lakes. This system is bringing in scattered showers to the area which are expected to continue throughout the short term period as the low is expected to track north along the Mississippi River and towards the Great Lakes. This will keep central Indiana on the leading side of the low into tomorrow night, continuing the moisture advection and weak lift associated with the low and thus shower production. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s while daytime highs will peak in the mid 70s.
209 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The large upper low currently centered over AR/MO has begun to lift northward this afternoon. Thursday will be quite a bit warmer than today as upper ridging begins to build in the wake of the departing closed low to our northeast. The surface cyclone over CO will also shift eastward during the day, resulting in continued veering of surface flow to southwesterly, ushering in drier and warmer low level air.
The mid-level cut-off low continues to spin to our northeast, with dry air filtering in from the north. With the cut-off low moving off to the northeast tonight, winds will gradually become southerly by tomorrow morning. Southerly winds and increasing heights will lead to slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow compared to today. Widespread lower 90s can be expected with a few mid 90s possible around the Graham/Breckenridge area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Subsidence dominates the CWA as we are still currently situated on the western side of a mid-level low pressure system. This 500mb trough slowly makes its way northeast into the Ohio River Valley through Thursday night as a building ridge moves into Texas from the west.
A large cut-off upper low that has been parked near the AR-LA-TX area has been tracking slowly northward today. Drier air aloft on the southern side of the upper low has pushed into areas south of I-20.
In addition, with the east to southeast mean steering flow, cloud streamers off the Lower Keys have resulted in somewhat more intense showers in the offshore Gulf waters. A broad, weak mid-level ridge extends across the Western Atlantic, with the axis in the vicinity of the Florida Keys.
A closed low was centered over northern AR within an upper ridge across the eastern U. Meanwhile, a longwave trough will extend along the West Coast.
1118 AM PDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A cold front will bring a chance for light showers and more importantly, usher fall-like temperatures into the region today. Look for these cooler conditions to continue for the remainder of the workweek. Many locations will experience near or below freezing overnight temperatures starting Thursday morning onward.
Light northerly winds will persist through the afternoon with slightly warmer than average highs in the mid-80s expected.
An upper low over central Missouri will begin to lift northeast Thursday, and produce low and mid level convergence and upper diffluent flow.
Expect mid and high clouds to continue streaming over the area tonight, especially over the northern zones as a mid-level trough deepens over the eastern Pacific. Clouds will continue to stream overhead on Thursday as the eastern Pacific trough begins to rotate toward the West Coast and the jet on its forward flank noses over central Utah. Little change is expected Thursday night as the trough to the west makes slow progress toward land leaving light showers to continue over the eastern Uinta Mountains with limited chances for the adjacent valley and northwest Colorado. Overnight lows will be more moderate, running around 5 degrees warmer than normal. Multiple storm systems will bring unsettled pattern and cooler temperatures in the extended.
Drier weather is expected late in the weekend as the upper low moves away from the region. The primary cutoff upper level low continues to remain quasi-stationary over the ArkLaMiss and a stalled boundary upstream of the trough axis remains over central GA.
This is the present position of a relatively dry cold front.
255 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The upper low has been incredibly slow in lifting to the north over the region, leaving cyclonic flow over the region and perpetuating the persistent stratus through much of the morning.
Thus, with more cloud cover in place have nudged afternoon highs a touch cooler, especially in areas east of I-29. While conditions look to remain largely dry, can't rule out the possibility of seeing a few light showers and rumbles of thunder in areas east of I-29 as an upper level low near Missouri lifts northward toward the region.
110 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: VFR/MVFR slow to clear with area still under the influence of an upper low. Upper low is retrograding somewhat to the north/northwest this morning, leaving plenty of residual llvl moisture and fog early across the region. Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: A closed mid/upper low remains centered over the Mid South this morning, but it is beginning to slowly pull northward away from our region. However, the low level airmass remains largely unchanged from yesterday morning, with considerable low level moisture across the region.
A thermal trough will develop today then strengthen Thursday, producing gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas tonight into Thursday evening, with very steep seas possible south of Cape Blanco.
(This evening through Thursday) Tomorrow will be a transition day as the closed-low across Missouri accelerates to the northeast with rising mid-level heights and the eastward expansion of a low-level thermal ridge across the Southern Plains.
234 PM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A weak upper-level trough has started making its way onshore across the Pacific Northwest.
155 PM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Water vapor shows long wave trof nudging eastward into the western CONUS, with short wave ejecting into southwest WY early this afternoon. At the surface, gusty south/southeast winds have developed with surface trof advancing into eastern MT/WY, with early afternoon temps in the 70s/80s. Temps should remain relatively mild with breezy southerly winds gradually shifting southwest/west in our western half of zones with surface trof crossing the western Dakotas. Another warm day expected Thursday, but not quite as warm as today with winds shifting to the northwest/north behind the surface trof.
A strong upper low is situated over northeast Arkansas and this is the overriding feature affecting the mid state.
352 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pres will ridge across the region through Thu. A cold front will cross the area Fri. Some cirrus clouds will be dropping se overnight as a weak trof at the sfc and aloft move into the region. Thursday will be another pleasant day and even warmer. That sfc trof is expected to to slide across the region later in the day cutting into the large high pres ridge.
Moving on, the upper low will be lifting off to the north on Thursday with drier air moving in. For the near term temps, looking warmer than normal, especially with low temps which will run a good 10 to 15 degree above normal. In the ext fcst, upper ridging still expected to build into the region through the weekend. Look for highs to hold in the 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s. A strong upper low is situated over northeast Arkansas and this is the overriding feature affecting the mid state.
305 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night.
An area of showers rotating around the Arkansas upper low was working west across southern Missouri but looks to stay just east late this afternoon. The upper low is ushered northeast tonight into Thursday as southwest flow aloft expands over the central Rockies. Decreasing clouds and veered low-level winds should bring warmer afternoon temps.
1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 (Today and tonight) Another quiet weather day is expected today as a nearly stationary upper low remains parked to our east. Northeasterly flow on the backside of the low will keep temperatures near average for highs today with skies mostly clear. A few more clouds may be possible across our eastern counties in closer proximity to the low, but no precipitation is expected.
316 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A cloudy and very mild weather pattern by October standards will continue through the end of this week thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft remaining over the Northeast U.
1124 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across northwest Arkansas and parts of far eastern Oklahoma in association with an upper low centered over eastern Arkansas.
The cold front has moved through Boise and Mountain Home, and will move through the western Magic Valley late tonight.
The persistent bands of convection have been supported by fairly stout divergence aloft, as the upper level low only slowly eases north across southern Missouri. At the surface, low pressure over the Bootheel of MO will gradually fill through the short term as it drifts slightly northward. Temperatures will average some 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year with morning lows generally dropping into the lower 60s and afternoon highs climbing into the mid 70s. The slow moving upper level low that has sat across the Mississippi Valley through this week will now sit across Illinois, working into the Great Lakes Region by the weekend. As it does so, upper level ridging will take its place, expanding eastward out of deep Southern Plains and into the Southeast.
557 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Tomorrow will be a transition day as the closed-low across Missouri accelerates to the northeast with rising mid-level heights and the eastward expansion of a low-level thermal ridge across the Southern Plains.
Drier conditions will prevail on Thursday as an upper level trough exits the region.
Negatively tilted trough over western Colorado with the upper low looking to be centered over southwest Wyoming this afternoon. a stronger cold front lays along a line from Great Falls Montana. Last nice day Thursday before that upstream cold front begins impacting the weather.
/28/ The upper low has been incredibly slow in lifting to the north over the region, leaving cyclonic flow over the region and perpetuating the persistent stratus through much of the morning.
All of this impactful wx continues to be driven by an potent upper low over the MO Valley/Mid South regions, although this system will be drifting more to the NNE heading into the overnight hrs. Otherwise, lows Thu morning look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots, as lingering rainfall continues to taper off to the east. As the upper low begins to shift northeast toward the Great Lakes region, drier air will continue to filter into the area from the southwest.
752 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night.
Upper level high pressure ridge will amplify just west of the area later tonight and Thursday. /issued 209 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ The large upper low currently centered over AR/MO has begun to lift northward this afternoon. Thursday will be quite a bit warmer than today as upper ridging begins to build in the wake of the departing closed low to our northeast. The surface cyclone over CO will also shift eastward during the day, resulting in continued veering of surface flow to southwesterly, ushering in drier and warmer low level air.
Still some shower activity resulting from the upper low that is currently moving north through central Arkansas. This potential along with isolated thunderstorms associated with upper level low centered over southern Missouri, will gradually diminish through the evening as daytime heating wanes. Significant rise in heights will begin by Thursday as upper low moves off to the northeast.
Scattered rain showers will remain possible across the state until an upper level low pulls out of the area to the northeast Thursday morning.
619 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure overhead will continue to provide clear skies and light northerly winds through the TAF period.
828 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A cloudy and very mild weather pattern by October standards will continue through the end of this week thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft remaining over the Northeast U.
An upper low continues to spin over Missouri, drawing moisture north ahead of it and bringing this in to feed the showers and storms currently over central Indiana and the Ohio valley. It will be a wet short term as an upper low gradually lifts north from near the Ozarks up to the Great Lakes. This system is bringing in scattered showers to the area which are expected to continue throughout the short term period as the low is expected to track north along the Mississippi River and towards the Great Lakes. This will keep central Indiana on the leading side of the low into tomorrow night, continuing the moisture advection and weak lift associated with the low and thus shower production. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s while daytime highs will peak in the mid 70s.
839 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will remain in control through Thursday night.
749 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 During the next 24 hours an upper low tracks north from the lower to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. with trailing troughiness initially over the northern Gulf of Mexico lifting north with it. Meanwhile an upper ridge across Cuba and the Bahamas sprawls over much of FL and the east Gulf. associated with the upper low/troughiness. Weak low pressure offshore northeast FL and GA slowly slides north. High pressure north of the waters continue through the end of the week with a relaxed gradient. A weak front treks through during the weekend with high pressure in it's wake.
Light east to northeast winds will continue overnight, but will eventually become southerly sometime after midnight as the upper low to our east shifts northward into the Midwest. The light winds, combined with clear skies and dry air, will result in another cooler night with low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 50s to low 60s. With the return of southerly flow, Thursday will be several degrees warmer across the area.
TFJ A weak upper-level trough has started making its way onshore across the Pacific Northwest.
1036 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night.
Skies are clearing across E OK as sunset approaches, with more cloud cover over NW AR closer to the upper low center. This potential along with isolated thunderstorms associated with upper level low centered over southern Missouri, will gradually diminish through the evening as daytime heating wanes. Significant rise in heights will begin by Thursday as upper low moves off to the northeast.
Due to these downslope winds, have leaned just a bit warmer than consensus, with highs rising into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
532 PM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Water vapor shows long wave trof nudging eastward into the western CONUS, with short wave ejecting into southwest WY early this afternoon. At the surface, gusty south/southeast winds have developed with surface trof advancing into eastern MT/WY, with early afternoon temps in the 70s/80s. Temps should remain relatively mild with breezy southerly winds gradually shifting southwest/west in our western half of zones with surface trof crossing the western Dakotas. Another warm day expected Thursday, but not quite as warm as today with winds shifting to the northwest/north behind the surface trof.
811 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A weak inverted trough/area of low pressure off the east coast of FL will lift slowly northward overnight, with weak low level E/SE winds this evening becoming S/SE later tonight. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s.
750 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A cloudy and very mild weather pattern by October standards will continue through the end of this week thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft remaining over the Northeast U.
The threat for flash flooding and strong to severe storms will continue into the evening hours, as a stacked low pressure system continues shifting north northwest, keeping a moist airmass over southern middle Tennessee and north central and northeast AL. With drier air wrapping around the southeast side of the low, believe northwest AL will dry out overnight and the majority of showers and storms will be confined to areas east of I-65. As the upper low begins to shift northeast toward the Great Lakes region, drier air will continue to filter into the area from the southwest.
/issued 619 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ High pressure overhead will continue to provide clear skies and light northerly winds through the TAF period.
It will be a wet short term as an upper low gradually lifts north from near the Ozarks up to the Great Lakes. This system is bringing in scattered showers to the area which are expected to continue throughout the short term period as the low is expected to track north along the Mississippi River and towards the Great Lakes. This will keep central Indiana on the leading side of the low into tomorrow night, continuing the moisture advection and weak lift associated with the low and thus shower production. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s while daytime highs will peak in the mid 70s.
658 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Closed upper level low, currently spinning over AR (per latest watervapor satellite imagery), will get nudged north/northeast over the next couple days. thanks in part to a 300 mb jetlet moving northward in the lee of the low.
Over the next few days, expect a ridge of high pressure to become more established over northern Mexico as the West Coast trough continues to dig south, eventually developing a closed low off the coast of central California Thursday/Thursday night.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight through early Thursday morning as a 500mb ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight. /issued 237 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Subsidence dominates the CWA as we are still currently situated on the western side of a mid-level low pressure system. This 500mb trough slowly makes its way northeast into the Ohio River Valley through Thursday night as a building ridge moves into Texas from the west.
However ridging remains in place and continues to provide subsidence, which is suppressing vertical growth.
Moving on, the upper low will be lifting off to the north on Thursday with drier air moving in. For the near term temps, looking warmer than normal, especially with low temps which will run a good 10 to 15 degree above normal. In the ext fcst, upper ridging still expected to build into the region through the weekend. Look for highs to hold in the 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
1027 PM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Water vapor shows long wave trof nudging eastward into the western CONUS, with short wave ejecting into southwest WY early this afternoon. At the surface, gusty south/southeast winds have developed with surface trof advancing into eastern MT/WY, with early afternoon temps in the 70s/80s. Temps should remain relatively mild with breezy southerly winds gradually shifting southwest/west in our western half of zones with surface trof crossing the western Dakotas. Another warm day expected Thursday, but not quite as warm as today with winds shifting to the northwest/north behind the surface trof.
Unsettled weather will continue this weekend as low pressure meanders off of Cape Fear. Rain chances linger through Thursday with trough/weak low offshore and persisting low level onshore flow. Closed upper low continues to move north across the Midwest before opening into a wave Thursday night as it approaches the Great Lakes. Very unsettled weather this period with SW flow aloft around upper low moving into Great Lakes and surface/low level flow onshore and moisture-laden. The antecedent ridge will lead to one last mild afternoon, while extensive cloud cover will keep nighttime lows quite elevated.
Upper level trough moving east of the area tonight.
235 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Main U/L flow will remain north of the region as an U/L ridge will extend across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. A L/W trough extends from western Canada to off the California coast.
129 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pres will ridge across the region through Thu. A cold front will cross the area Fri. Some cirrus clouds will be dropping se overnight as a weak trof at the sfc and aloft move into the region. Thursday will be another pleasant day and even warmer. That sfc trof is expected to to slide across the region later in the day cutting into the large high pres ridge.
Otherwise drier conditions may see a touch of haze in parts of TX as upper high pressure brings back some late summer for this weekend. We will keep NW flow aloft 20-50KT for most FLs as this upper high anchors over SE TX by Sat.
/issued 209 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ The large upper low currently centered over AR/MO has begun to lift northward this afternoon. Thursday will be quite a bit warmer than today as upper ridging begins to build in the wake of the departing closed low to our northeast. The surface cyclone over CO will also shift eastward during the day, resulting in continued veering of surface flow to southwesterly, ushering in drier and warmer low level air.
Sfc analysis shows a closed low just to the NW, located over the Dakotas/Montana/Canada borders. Some light troughing from this feature will push through today, bringing a brief spat of clouds, but otherwise just passing through.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis building across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Lows mainly in the low to mid 60s.
A weak front then moves through for Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and perhaps a few isolated showers. Cooler temperatures in the 70s are on tap for Thursday as a cold frontal boundary moves through the area during the day. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low 50s, while lows Thursday night will range from the low 40s west to the low 50s east. To start the extended, a longwave trough sits over the west CONUS, while a ridge is placed over the far east CONUS into southeastern Canada. Multiple waves of energy will affect the region as the trough slides eastward through the weekend.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 65 77 61 80 / 50 50 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 63 76 61 79 / 80 60 50 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 76 62 76 60 79 / 70 60 50 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 60 75 59 76 / 70 70 70 30 30 NC.
Temperatures across the Mid-South early this morning are in the low to mid 60s. The upper level low which has been producing some rain across the region yesterday is now in southeast Missouri. As the upper low moves north today, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across extreme northern sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will start to control the weather across the region tonight bringing a period of dry weather through much of the weekend.
242 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Short wave ridging will move overhead today leading to another fairly uneventful day on the South Plains of West Texas. The short wave ridging will result in rising heights and thickness values and therefore warmer temperatures for this afternoon compared to Wednesday. Weak lee troughing/surface cyclogenesis will develop again this afternoon but farther to the east.
302 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Latest analysis shows the upper level low which has kept our weather unsettled this week is currently over southern Missouri.