Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW IS MAINTAINING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. TODAY THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AWHILE AS TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. THIS UPPER LOW MAKES BETTER PROGRESS AT PULLING EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE TODAY AS A TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MONSOON TYPE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHEDDING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
The cold front that pushed thru overnight is well south of the FA area along the AR/MO and KY/TN borders to start the prd. 850 temps have trended slightly cooler in the past 24 hrs with the 0 line now fcst to be south of I70 with the -2 isotherm down to STL. High pressure will remain in control Thu and Thu night keeping cool and dry conditions in place.
1058 PM PDT TUE APR 21 2015 A cold front will move through the area and bring cooler weather and breezy conditions late tonight and on into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and off and on showery conditions will linger on through the remainder of the work week.
CUT-OFF U/L LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE U/L TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH BROAD U/L RIDGING IN ITS WAKE DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE AND TROUGH PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
450 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS.
550 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES OUR REGION IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT DRYING CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ADVANCES SOUTH. EXTENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE /CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN MN/ MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUITE PLEASANT WITH SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVE EAST AND INTO THE RRV.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A QUIET BUT COOL OVERNIGHT EXPECTED AS A RESULT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. THURSDAY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN.
These storms are developing as lift from an upper level low over the great lakes region interacts will weak instability that is developing with day time heating and low level moisture advection. The upper level low is spreading increased wind shear and colder temperatures in the mid levels. Later this evening into tonight additional isolated to scattered storms will be possible as a cold front sags south through the area.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA BUT NORTHWARD PROGRESSION LIMITED BY TRAJECTORY OF UPPER FLOW. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AZ ON TUE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO SE AZ ON WED. WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA ENTIRELY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST. MODELS STILL BRINGING A MINOR WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE EARLY THU. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP LATE THU. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TO ZONAL FLOW ON SUN. THIS CONTINUES TUE WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING IN TO PROVIDE DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MONTANA ON THU NIGHT/ FRI.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF THE RAP13/HRRR SHIFT THIS AREA BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT. AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT 33-36 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE CONUS INDICATES ONE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AND A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FETCH ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SOUTHWEST U.
654 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 IT HAS BEEN A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. TUESDAY RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO OUR REGION. VERY QUIET WEATHER APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO OUR REGION.
High pressure ridge from Wisconsin to Oklahoma will move little overnight, keeping our northeast flow continuing. 925 mb RAP humidity plot showing some southern building of the lower clouds once again overnight, and have indicated mostly cloudy conditions spreading over most of the forecast area overnight. High pressure ridge will dominate the weather across central IL through mid week. into the lower 80s, for Wed and Thur.
1046 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
General dry high pressure will prevail at the sfc throughout the short term period. There should be increasing high cloudiness late today/early Tue, especially west of the MS River, associated with a minor mid level shrtwv impinging on a ridge over the PAH forecast area. The sfc pressure gradient is forecast to slacken a bit by Tue as a closed low over the sern CONUS moves newd and away. Despite the nrly winds, the higher heights of the ridge should still translate to warmer than average temps at the sfc.
956 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO WEST ALABAMA AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH 80S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
Otherwise, lows tonight will be around 50F from Scott City to the lower 50s across south central Kansas.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PUT DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH MOISTURE PUSHING UP AS WELL. THIS LOW WILL BE PUSHING EAST INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETREAT BACK INTO JUST THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PLAINS COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
OUR CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUD /STRATUS/ AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL WY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IS ON THE INCREASE BASED ON EARLY-EVENING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S F IN THOSE AREAS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS IS EXITING MONTANA AT THIS TIME WITH 500MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO OUR WEST. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION WHILE A CUT UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS ARIZONA. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO RIDE NORTH.
WITH A FEW SPOTS QUICKLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER THE RIDGING IN PLACE IS ERODING IT AS TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. WILL LOWER THE LOWS A BIT MORE SO IN THE EAST.
930 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AND BRING FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY.
1150 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 Low-level moisture trapped underneath a ridge axis over the Central Plains will stay in place through much of the afternoon and evening hours. A well-defined blocking pattern with a deep mid-level low over the southeastern CONUS working opposite a deepening low over the western CONUS will remain in place through Tuesday. As the ridge axis above the Central Plains approaches the area, low-level stratus will begin to dissipate through Tuesday afternoon as dry air enters the region.
BROAD AND RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLEARING SEEN WITH MIXING TODAY AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS PUSHING IN. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER.
As skies clear out and mid level temps warm slightly, expect high temperatures to reach into the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday. Tomorrow night, overall system has a cut off low over southwest CONUS as a broad trough developing and moving through upper level northern stream flow.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SE TX AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS C TX AND INTO THE S PLAINS. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1035 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RE-AMPLIFY NWD TUESDAY FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THE SRN CA CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE ACROSS SRN AZ INTO SW NM/NRN OLD MX.
701 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
824 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE MORE RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PD.
JUST SOME OVERNIGHT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE LOW INTO ARIZONA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE.
521 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2015 Quieter weather is expected through Tuesday, with mostly clear skies as high pressure builds over the area. The ridge weakens mid week with a chance of light rain entering the region. Tonight through Tuesday night: An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to bring dry, mild fall weather to the Inland Northwest. High and mid level clouds will be on the increase Tuesday night as the ridge aloft flattens slightly.
1037 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST TONIGHT AS 850MB TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MID/UPPER TROF FINALLY EXPECTED TO FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUSTAINED CLEARING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST.
UPPER LOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST WHILE A SHARP UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MID-WEEK.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA AT MID-EVENING WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY.
THE THERMAL TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND RIGHT ON TIME, AND A COASTALLY TRAPPED WIND REVERSAL IS FOLLOWING AS EXPECTED WITH STRATUS NOW SURGING AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO AND NEARING CRESCENT CITY. ELSEWHERE, A SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS, AND THIS WILL LIKE BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS STRONG OVER THE PACNW. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BEGIN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER.
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A CLOSED LOW IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKING QUICKLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL OK. CLOSED LOW OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHEAST ON TUE INTO WED AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WED INTO WED NIGHT ALONG OUR WESTERN FLANK AS MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. BY FRI MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN ACROSS AR/OK WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS. PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
WE WILL REMAIN IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 81 58 82 / 0 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION.
725 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
811 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MID- UPPER FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC TO SLOWLY BECOME ANTI-CYCLONIC AS A S/W RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS FIELD TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. A NEAR CALM SURFACE WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FA DURING THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
There is good consensus (model and forecaster) that a synoptic scale rain/heavy rain event is materializing with an upper low forecast to be in SW NM by Wed PM and El Paso City by 12Z Thur. Rich/deep moisture persisting ahead of the upper low will promote efficient rain producing showers and storms leading to widespread concerns for flooding/flash flooding. The upper low may slowly drop s on Fri.
/ISSUED / UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT US THE COOL WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
1255 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN SHIFTING THE PATH OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE FROM WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME POTENTIAL VFR CEILINGS AT KLFT/KARA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST AND MANIFEST ITSELF AS STRATOCU CURRENTLY OVER SERN LA. NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING WITH PRIMARILY VFR AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. /ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
743 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
950 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILING. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS WITH MOISTURE NEAR AN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RE-AMPLIFY NWD TUESDAY FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THE SRN CA CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE ACROSS SRN AZ INTO SW NM/NRN OLD MX.
638 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 Low-level moisture trapped underneath a ridge axis over the Central Plains will stay in place through much of the afternoon and evening hours. A well-defined blocking pattern with a deep mid-level low over the southeastern CONUS working opposite a deepening low over the western CONUS will remain in place through Tuesday. As the ridge axis above the Central Plains approaches the area, low-level stratus will begin to dissipate through Tuesday afternoon as dry air enters the region.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION CENTERED AT AROUND 850MB THAT HAS MAINTAINED THE LOW OVERCAST DECK. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS APPROACHING THE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF EAU CLAIRE AND MEDFORD. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST AND REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER DAY.
819 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 130 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM GA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WELL DEFINED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO START SLIDING EAST.
Went closer to the cooler NAM MOS guidance tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 50s. It will be warmer and dry Tuesday, with mid level clouds remaining east of the region and winds returning to the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. 04 (Tuesday night through Monday) Heavy rainfall will be possible later this week as the strong closed low over the southwest CONUS approaches from the west.
THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE UP NORTH WHERE A COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME NOTABLE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW IN THE SRN GREAT BASIN IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO INFLUENCE WX IN OUR CWA EXCEPT ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE EVEN FARTHER AWAY ENDING THAT THREAT. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO OUR CWA FROM THE COAST THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WHICH WOULD IMPACT TEMPS WITH COOLER LOWS NORTH/WARMER SOUTH. CURRENT DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA ARE IN THE LOW 40S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER THU.