Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will move into the High Plains of WY/MT, deepen, and take on a negative tilt by the end of the period. Upper level ridge over western Canada will also amplify and move into central Canada by 12Z Sat. Water vapor loop indicated another upper level trough over northern SASK. The SASK trough will move through southeast Canada and send drier air into the northeast zones Thu and Thu night. High pressure over southern SASK and southern ALTA will produce a dry low level flow out of the northeast through 12Z Fri. Precipitable water rises to over an inch and a half by Fri/Fri night with the approach of a more significant upper trough. An upper level trough over southern CA will move into IA and southern MN for Wed night.
This in combination with a transient upper trof providing some lift may support a few showers and storms where modest instability will reside within the increasing PWAT axis across central portions of Kansas. While some precip may linger into Thursday morning, the tropical connection will weaken or exit the area with slight ridging aloft by afternoon, so will continue to trend dry again over central Kansas.
A moist low pressure system will direct significant surges of moisture northward over western Montana and north central Idaho tonight and Thursday. The precipitation will be in the form of snow over the higher mountains and mostly above mountain pass level. As the low pressure system sags further south over the Great Basin and eventually shifts to the east, the main moisture feed will retreat from Orofino, Grangeville and northwest Montana.
353 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure builds over the area tonight, then begins to slide offshore Thursday night.
First, the 500mb temp is somewhat warmer today, with with about -6.
407 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016 Upper ridging holding on tight today, suppressing afternoon convection, although a stray shower or two over the southeastern forecast area cannot be ruled out over the next couple of hours.
/issued 456 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ As forecast, easterly winds on the south side of the low-level anticyclone have pushed somewhat drier air into eastern Oklahoma and pushed the moisture axis to the west. So this will help take the edge off of the high heat index values we have seen the last few days.
133 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 A surface pressure trough near the coast and upper low over the area will continue through Thursday.
The upper level ridge that has brough the area continued summer-like weather for the past several days will remain virtually anchored over Texas, and in control of our weather through tomorrow night. Temperatures will drop into the mid 60s to near 70 for lows, with highs in the lower to mid 90s Thursday, with the forecast remaining dry through Thursday evening.
533 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will give dry and warm weather for the rest of the work week.
245 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will be centered over the region tonight and move off the coast Thursday.
222 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure at the surface will result in mostly sunny skies today and tomorrow along with above normal temperatures. Late Thursday evening, a cold front will move across the area bringing the next chance for showers and much cooler air. Fog is expected to quickly mix out Thursday morning as the center of high pressure shifts to the east and SW flow aloft returns to the area. The ridge will continue to shift east on Thursday which will result in WAA.
Convection being inhibited by subsidence aloft on the back side of a mid/upper trough. Mid/upper low across the Carolinas will drift southwest. Mid level impulses rotating around the low will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to mainly coastal areas of southeast Ga and the coastal waters. Mid/upper low across the Carolinas will begin to open up into a wave with a weak surface reflection (remnants of Julia) meandering off the lower SC/Upper Ga coast.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 60s.
336 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 Dry and mild weather will remain through Thursday as an upper level ridge axis migrates slowly to the east but with only light southwest flow aloft. A disturbance ejecting into southern Colorado, ahead of the next significant upper level low pressure system now bearing down on Gold Beach Oregon, will clear north and northeast tonight and Thursday. RMcQueen All eyes are on the upper low currently moving into the west as it will bring the promise of a decent late September cold front along with increased rain chances over the weekend. The center of the upper low is progged to cross the Great Basin and then eject northeastward over the Rockies late week and then the northern High Plains early this weekend before solutions diverge.
(Issued Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS) Area soundings reveal a capped and rather dry airmass over the Tennessee Valley region this morning (Precipitable Water ~ an inch) as the mid level ridge maintains subsident, anticyclonic flow. (Issued Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS) Area soundings reveal a capped and rather dry airmass over the Tennessee Valley region this morning (Precipitable Water ~ an inch) as the mid level ridge maintains subsident, anticyclonic flow.
337 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through most of Thursday.
605 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will be centered over the region tonight and move off the coast Thursday.
317 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 The models all agree well through the first part of the short term with cool Canadian high pressure sliding east across southern Canada bringing prevailing cool northeast winds to our region. As this occurs, a large upper level low pressure trough will kick out of the southwest U.
Upper level ridge will remain over South Texas throughout the short term part of the forecast. Additional showers and thunderstorms should develop tonight into early Thursday morning over the Gulf Waters as trough moves closer to the area.
236 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will give dry and warm weather for the rest of the work week. High pressure will continue to result in mostly sunny skies and well above normal temperatures.
NAM and various convection allowing models forecast isolated thunderstorms along the lee trough/dryline along the CO/KS border by 7 pm.
352 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday.
Satellite shows upper low aloft the coast this morning with an area of mid and high level clouds across eastern Oregon and Washington. As the upper low moves inland across the region tonight and Thu there will be a significant increase in cloud cover and rain. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow as well.
241 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 Quiet weather is set to continue for the next several days with an abundance of relatively dry air through the column associated with deep-layer ridging. Widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 90s will continue with readings on the high end of model guidance due to the ongoing drought.
These warm conditions will be supported by persistent southerly low-level flow and the continued building locally of a flat upper-level ridge. The airmass has become more humid over the past 24 hours and may not heat quite as quickly today, suggesting going even warmer for highs today would not be prudent. Main issue with the forecast remains the trof that moves into the west coast on late Thu/Fri.
Overnight temps will continue in the low to mid 70s areawide. PoPs will continue in the 30/40 range for Thursday with the highest coverage across the interior. Weak upper-level troughing across the eastern seaboard will lift as ridging becomes better established across the southeast for the end of the week and though the weekend.
106 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
619 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday.
Mild and dry weather continues as deep layer high pressure continues to exert its influence across the region.
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to control the weather across eastern Kentucky, with very warm sunny days and mild nights. An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the weekend. Models indicate a backdoor cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley late in the weekend, but this stays north of our area. In fact, weak high pressure in place at the surface will provide for plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend.
(ISSUED 1253 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 ) High pressure continues over Arkansas with just a few high clouds passing by at this time. High pressure aloft will begin to build over the state today and Thursday as the upper pattern amplifies in response to a deep trough coming onshore out west. The presence of the upper high will limit rain chances and cloud cover so expect dry conditions across the board with only some thin high clouds at times. Overnight temperatures will also be above normal with readings in the low 60s to around 70 expected.
320 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected during the next 36 hours as a warm front slowly lifts north then stalls across Wisconsin.
205 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 Pleasant warm afternoon across the region with surface and upper ridging continuing to dominate our weather. Upper ridge will dominate for the next several days and this weekend keeping the Mid State warm and dry. High pressure over the Ohio River Valley will keep mostly clear skies and light east to northeasterly flow in place across the Mid-State through the forecast period.
518 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure builds over the area tonight, then begins to slide offshore Thursday night.
/Issued 405 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ The influence of post-tropical cyclone Paine can already be seen on regional water vapor imagery.
A very quiet period is in store, with ridging at the surface and aloft dominating our weather. With the westerlies well to our north and high geopotential heights due to the ridge, we will continue to see above normal temperatures.
This means afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as high pressure aloft reigns over most of the south.
Meanwhile additional thunderstorm development looks likely along the warm front across north-central and southwest Wisconsin. For late this afternoon into tonight, another short wave trough will move through the area.
/issued 605 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate West Central Texas with dry conditions and light winds. /issued 434 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging will continue to dominate the state of Texas through tonight, with the center of the upper ridge over the forecast area. Afternoon highs today will be in the mid 90s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal. Morning lows tomorrow will mostly be in the upper 60s, around 5 degrees warmer than normal.
355 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft brought the region clear skies as temperatures climbed into the 90s and the dew points fell into the 60s today. Towards the coast temps to hover in the lower 70s with a bit of patchy fog towards sunrise.
High pressure to the northeast will continue to ridge into the forecast area through the period. /issued 942 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ High pressure and aloft will provide plenty of sunshine today and temps into the 90s. /issued 519 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will yield yet another warm and dry day across the region today. After a coolish start in the upper 60s/lower 70s, plenty of sun and the relatively dry airmass will result in afternoon highs reaching the lower/mid 90s. Small rain chances return tomorrow as the surface/low level ridge shifts eastward allowing at least shallow moisture to return amid the southeasterly onshore flow.
Deep longwave trough out west will move east and separate from large upper low over AZ, with models not in full agreement on evolution of this low separation from parent trough, being the main factor in timing issues of this system into our area.
Concur with the GFS deterministic which maintains the upper ridge over the S Central CONUS while an upper trough enters the WRN CONUS during the period. isold/sct convection expected to develop/persist given the foregoing trough/greater moisture.
Another very warm day is expected today with an upper level ridge in place. There is good agreement at least for a few days with a large upper level trough developing over the western U. and a sharp downstream ridge over our area. By Sat, guidance slowly progresses the western trough to the east and the ridge over us also begins to move off to the east.
1253 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure continues over Arkansas with just a few high clouds passing by at this time. High pressure aloft will begin to build over the state today and Thursday as the upper pattern amplifies in response to a deep trough coming onshore out west. The presence of the upper high will limit rain chances and cloud cover so expect dry conditions across the board with only some thin high clouds at times. Overnight temperatures will also be above normal with readings in the low 60s to around 70 expected.
311 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure at the surface will result in mostly sunny skies today and tomorrow along with above normal temperatures. Late Thursday evening, a cold front will move across the area bringing the next chance for showers and much cooler air. Fog is expected to quickly mix out Thursday morning as the center of high pressure shifts to the east and SW flow aloft returns to the area. The ridge will continue to shift east on Thursday which will result in WAA. Main concerns in the short term remain focused around the incoming weak cold front and the abrupt pattern change expected behind the front going into the weekend.
A relatively dry airmass will remain in place through the overnight hours with light northerly deep layer flow in association with an upper level low east of the area. Overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the lower 70s with mid 70s along the coast.
Temperatures have been steadily rising through the morning and we remain on track to reach our afternoon high in the lower 90s. Another warmer than average day is in store tomorrow with high pressure positioned just far enough west to continue the influence on our temperatures. Subsidence on the western fringe of the ridge combined with relatively dry air at the surface will keep precipitation out of the forecast through Thursday afternoon. Highs should once more reach the lower 90s. the main wx concern will focus on a strong upper low/trough which currently sits off the Pacific coast.
High clouds, around 25-30 kft will be returning during the day Thursday around the periphery of a middle and upper level ridge of high pressure centered over Central Texas with a cumulus field, around 4-6 kft, developing in the late morning and early afternoon. An additional 10 degree warming this aftn will be easily achieved, with similar aftn temps to yesterday in the lower to mid 90s.
150 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday.
Diffluent flow aloft, ahead of a closed upper low and associated trof over the western U.
An anomalously moist low pressure system was setting up along the Oregon coast early this afternoon as previously progged while regional radar returns were showing increasing shower activity across the CNTRL mountains.
Temperatures have been steadily rising through the morning and we remain on track to reach our afternoon high in the lower 90s. Another warmer than average day is in store tomorrow with high pressure positioned just far enough west to continue the influence on our temperatures. Subsidence on the western fringe of the ridge combined with relatively dry air at the surface will keep precipitation out of the forecast through Thursday afternoon. Highs should once more reach the lower 90s.
Elsewhere there will also be isold to occasionally sct SHRA/TSRA coverage mostly from the AZ line east to the highlands immediately to the east of the central mt chain.
122 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the work week, allowing dry weather to continue.
A large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the Southern U.
An upper level low will move into the Western US tonight, and deep south and southwest flow aloft will transport rich atmospheric moisture over the region. The first will be tonight as a wave of energy embedded in the low moves over the region.
312 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 A high pressure ridge remains in control of the weather across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region this afternoon. ridge should hold right through the weekend suppressing convection due to subsidence.
An upper level low sitting over the Carolinas remains in place through the day. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
Atmospheric moisture limited to the lowest 10000 feet, so cu field is having trouble gaining altitude. This dry atmosphere will persist today even as a weak inverted 500 mb trough passes to the south of the BRO CWFA, and rainfall is not expected within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Tonight, the atmosphere will moisten considerably as a weak surface area of low pressure transitions from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Middle Texas Coast. This increased moisture will result in isolated showers for the Lower Texas coastal waters, a trend that will persist on Thursday as the low moves inland.
The weather cruise control continues, with little change in the synoptic setup; an upper-ridge axis remains aligned over the south-central U. Here in Alabama, it's another hot (torching)/dry day underneath the ridge, with forecast highs again expected to run above-average by 6-11 degrees (F) given the combination of ongoing drought, abundant sunshine, and above average low-level temperatures. We'll carry forward VFR conditions to tonight and Thursday as high pressure remains in control.
Also, breezy/windy east to northeast winds at 15 to 30 mph were occurring and bringing in cooler air. Cooler and breezy conditions will set up over our area today.
1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016 Mostly sunny skies across the south central and southeast are supporting warmer temperatures this afternoon so raised the highs into the lower 70s. With warmer temperatures south yet 50s northwest the pressure gradient and wind field also impacted as we are getting wind gusts 30 to 35 mph across the south central. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating off the Washington coast with an intensifying 300mb jet on the back side of the upper low/trough. This will continue today, then abate somewhat tonight as the upper trough shifts a bit farther south and transitions from positively tilted to neutral.
This has effectively prevented the last few waves of moisture spun off from the upper low over SW Wyoming from leaving SW Montana.
334 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft across much of the eastern half of the country this afternoon. Temperatures generally warmed into the lower 90s before the development of convection. Dew points generally range from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s near the coast at 3 pm. Upper weakness along the Carolina coast will slowly work under the upper ridge toward the area Saturday and Saturday night.
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Pattern still ongoing transition to greater amplification across the CONUS with a prominent mid/upper level ridge developing from the se CONUS through central Canada and an amplified trough digging through the Rockies with its associated closed low moving from Utah this morning into Colorado this evening. Despite the expected increase in sunshine, the cool ENE low-level flow over the area will keep max temps near normal, from the lower 60s north to mid-upper 60s south. Tonight, the models still suggest that a band of mid-lvl fgen will develop in response to the amplifying ridge to the west and upper level div with the right entrance of the 250-300 mb jet to the northeast.
Late tonight patchy MVFR and very isolated IFR with fog may be see around sunrise Saturday, with KBPK and KADF having the highest possibility. Today Through Saturday Night It should be a warm day across the forecast area today as an upper ridge reaches peak strength before gradually ceding control to an approaching plains trough later in the weekend. Highs today will once again be some 5-10 degrees above normal as a result, with most places reaching the lower 90s. Despite waning strength, temperatures will be similar on Saturday though slightly cooler, most notably so in the higher terrain. Better rain chances will begin to creep into western Arkansas late Saturday night as the trough draws near.
Expect cooler and drier conditions for most of the area today, behind a cold front that moved through overnight. Dry and slightly warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend. Expect dry weather on Saturday as Arizona is influenced by northerly flow on the back side of the trough stretched from the northern Plains into the southern Rockies.
106 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Central Great Basin/Southwest states is progged to move eastward into the Central Rockies through the day today.
Slightly drier air will filter into the area for Saturday as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 The upper level pattern begins with an amplified pattern across the conus, with an upper trough across the intermountain west, ridge across the middle of the country, and trough over the eastern conus. Closer to home, the southern portion of the trough was located along the eastern seaboard and southwestward to the Florida panhandle. Overnight lows will be near 70 to the lower 70s. The upper trough over the eastern conus will lift northeast, but a piece will remain and cutoff over southern Georgia tonight and then slowly drift west to the Florida panhandle by Saturday afternoon. The cooler temperatures aloft and slightly deeper moisture values will lead to scattered storms with best rain chances near the coast in the morning and well inland during the mid/late afternoon and early eve.
A cold front continues to work east out of central New Mexico. VCTS conditions are also expected at KAMA after 12Z Saturday as the cold front makes its way through which may linger towards the end of the TAF period for KAMA. A slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be retained today for northwestern sections, where Pacific cold front or dryline will provide a focus for development.
Weak high pressure and mid level ridging will keep our forecast dry through Saturday night.
1141 AM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A strong upper low is in place over Nevada/Utah border, with SW flow ahead of this feature across the Central Rockies and High Plains. Today-Tonight: Forcing will increase this afternoon as upper low transitions eastward and upper level jet streak moves over western KS.
The upper-level pattern consists of a deep trough over the western U. , a weak trough over the eastern U. , and a strong ridge in between centered over eastern Texas. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the northern Gulf and just northeast of the Bahamas with weak troughing over the Florida peninsula.
Little change in the overall pattern today as an upper ridge continues over the region. Mid and upper level subsidence under this ridge will continue to suppress convective development for much of the day. Temperature will remain well above normal with temps again warming into the low to mid 90s inland to around 90 along the coast.