Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Coastal troffiness is expected into midweek. Deeper moisture and convergence along the trof (along with some passing upper impulses) will probably trigger overnight and morning precip closer to the coast followed by inland expansion with daytime heating. Looks like the trof could wash out and we'd lose a surface focusing mechanism later in the week, but atmos still looks plenty moist for higher end & diurnally driven pops through the remainder of the work week.
Upper air analysis this morning showed west-southwesterly flow over TX with a trough from central Canada to the Four Corners. At the surface, a cold front was moving into our northwestern counties. Winds ahead of the front were from the east to southeast and dewpoint temperatures were in the lower to middle 70s. The upper level trough will move across TX during this period.
Templer The upper flow pattern consists of a trough that runs through central Canadian and into the Upper Mississippi Valley, and a ridge that runs northward through the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Cool air advection and a strong pressure gradient between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west created strong northwest winds today. Models place eastern Montana in a dry slot between the showers of the trough to our east, and showers over the stationary frontal boundary to our west.
Tonight and Monday should be mild with lows in the mid 50s and highs on Monday slightly warmer with highs in the low 80s. As an upper level wave rotates around the upper low. Could see an isolated afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm along the Highway 54 corridor. an upper level ridge will continue to build over the Rocky Mountain states.
K indices will be in the lower 30s and this should support thunderstorms. H700mb temperatures warm into the low single digits celsius. High pressure across Alberta and Saskatchewan will ridge south in the wake of the disturbance this afternoon.
The region will be under a high amplitude upper level ridge today and tonight. The axis of the ridge is roughly along the Cascade crest this morning, then shift to a position over eastern Washington and Oregon this afternoon. As a result, much of the Interior Northwest will continue to be under the subsidence portion of the upper ridge.
250 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. This is helping to keep temps down somewhat with current readings only in the low to mid 70s. Some energy rotating around an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday night.
233 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Slightly cooler and drier air has overspread the area today.
Ridging over the region will weaken on Monday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A closed 500 mb low/trough was rotating across northern parts of the region this afternoon, and is slated to continue to pull northeast over the next couple days. Area will be dominated by an upper level trough of low pressure through Memorial Day.
A cold front will then move through overnight and bring cooler and less humid air into the region for Memorial Day Monday and into midweek. Low temperatures drop back into the middle to upper 50s overnight, then rebound into the lower to middle 70s on Memorial Day.
Cold front remains to the west and is expected to move through tonight.
102 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure will linger over the region today.
Temperatures will be cooler tonight with lows dropping into the mid to upper 40s for most locations. Temperatures will be kept cooler with the increased cloud cover along with the cooler temperatures sliding in aloft.
Upper level ridge firmly in place over the northern Rockies and Intermountain Region through Monday night. Forecast models indicating moisture and instability sliding down the downwind side of the ridge over MT and clipping the NE corner of ID.
The above-mentioned stacked cyclone will move slowly SE, crossing the Northern Great Lakes on Mon before lifting E/NE over Southern Ontario. This would allow a high-amplitude mid-upper ridge situated along the West Coast to move VERY SLOWLY east over the Western U. Mon Night-Tue Night: A couple of weak mid-level short waves will sprint SE from the Western Dakotas that'll kick a cold front S/SE into KS on Mon. Cold front that swept through yesterday now stretches from southeast MO into the Arklatex region. Weak high pressure will settle over the Plains this afternoon and tonight with another shot of cool/dry air moving-in Mon morning/afternoon.
New convection expected to develop in the afternoon well west of the area over the lower MS valley into northern MS and develop into northern AL tonight. On Monday, 00Z model guidance shows broad troughing over the midwest with trough axis developing back in the southern plains and lower MS valley, which brings flow aloft to more SWly direction. SNELSON As broad upper trough slides east over the northern states, weak westerlies still in place over southern states Wed-Fri.
/issued 638 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ /12Z TAFS/ Cold front moved through KABI and KBBD around 11Z, and will move through KSOA and KJCT around 13Z. /issued 345 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Cold front had moved south of I-20 at 3 AM and should south of I-10 by 10 AM this morning. Cooler and cloudy otherwise behind the front today, with highs in the lower/mid 80s. It will be slightly cooler tonight, with lows in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
400 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area by this evening as a weak cold front moves across the area from the west tonight.
While some small hail is possible, the main hazard will just the winds from the low level dryness. The ridge will continue to build into the area tomorrow, but the area will be on the edge of the ridge. Some energy will be able to work into the area, but the rising heights will suppress thunderstorm activity to mainly just the higher terrain.
323 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 At H5 upper closed low over northern Minnesota has moved little over past 24 hours. Sharp ridge over the western CONUS placing northern plains in fast northwest flow. Ridging over the northeast CONUS. Weak impulses moving through northwest flow around the backside of the upper low over northern Minnesota. Heating of the day and cooler temperatures aloft will destabilize atmosphere enough for a few storms this afternoon and a backdoor cold front moves through the flow some storms to continue through the over night hours.
310 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Closed upper low over southwest Ontario this afternoon will be the primary weather feature for the area in the short term.
Winds were south to southwest across Florida Bay and variable elsewhere, with just a hint of the northerly flow around the eastern Gulf high pressure just starting to take shape outside the Northwest Channel. The lower troposphere will be marked by gradually increasing strength to high pressure, with strengthening east to southeast breezes as opposed to diurnal mesoscale wind regimes.
/issued 343 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Cold front moved through overnight pretty much as forecast. The cooler air behind the front will lower daytime high temperatures to the upper 70s or lower 80s this afternoon.
543 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue until the passage of the cold front overnight. Weak high pressure will keep Memorial Day mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. Thunderstorm activity has blossomed in area of 1500j/kg CAPE and modest shear, supporting some strong to severe storms as they cross the surface warm front. Most organized convection will remain in the vicinity of the warm front, with scattered showers and storms elsewhere. Will maintain the flash flood watch as is for now, but threat should end rather quickly with the approach of the cold front tonight. Cold front will cross the region overnight, with the bulk of the precipitation over by 6-9z. After lingering showers exit early, mostly dry weather is expected on Monday as high pressure arrives.
with cold front extending southwestward between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. Large MCS continues to sink into the lower Mississippi Valley with cirrus blowoff extending northward, although cloud tops are warming over our area and some thinning is taking place over the far northern CWA. As the low lifts northeast and the upper wave approaches, CAPE's over the eastern CWA are progged to reach 1000-1500 J/kg by midday, enough to trigger some scattered showers and storms. Upper low currently near Lake Winnipeg will slowly wobble southeast and east into mid week, keeping the Midwest in a cooler weather pattern. By late in the week, model discrepancies lead to some uncertainties, as the GFS and Canadian models bring down another upper low into the same area, while the ECMWF is warmer with the low staying north of the Great Lakes.
An upper level ridge of high pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move eastward over the next few days.
Pleasant weather continues for Memorial Day with continued breezy northwesterly flow, but slightly cooler temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
412 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 The cold front, weak as it is, is nosing into Northeast Texas to Mineola and Gilmer. The cold front will sort of run out of gas and remain parked in the ArkLaTex just drifting back and forth in the light South wind and numerous outflows to boost coverage for the next few days.
337 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate across South Florida with dry conditions and warm temperatures and highs in the mid 90s.
South of the boundary dew points to remain in the low to mid 70s through the overnight hours while to the north a bit cooler. This boundary will stall over southern Louisiana which will mean that we are looking at showers and thunderstorms for the start of the week and somewhat cooler temps due to rain cooled air.
May see some gusty winds out of the NNW during peak heating between 15 to 20 mph, perhaps up to 25 mph across northern Missouri, as 850 hPa winds increase upstream of a deepening trough situated over the Northern Plains. A weak frontal boundary may support a few sprinkles across northwestern Missouri Monday morning, though residual dry air within the lower levels should limit this potential.
Large upper level low pressure looks to remain over Ontario and provide northwest flow aloft through tomorrow.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Slightly cooler and drier air has overspread the area today.
141 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Crossing low pressure will result in areawide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. A small cluster of storms has already formed ahead of the warm front in southeast Ohio. The lowest FFG values reside from Allegheny/Westmoreland counties south into northern West Virginia. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into tonight as low pressure tracks to our northwest, dragging a cold front across. The upper trough will remain the dominant feature through the end of the week with no major changes to the longwave pattern. As thunderstorms decrease in coverage this evening, a cold front will move in from the west, bringing a round of precipitation to all sites and a shift in wind direction from southerly to westerly. Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough.
252 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A slow-moving cold front is triggering widely scattered convection across east-central Illinois this afternoon. Monday will start out sunny, but diurnal clouds will develop in advance of a weak trough pivoting around low pressure centered over the Great Lakes as the day progresses. NAM/GFS/WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM all agree that widely scattered convection will develop in advance of the trough, so have included 20 PoPs across all but the far NW late Monday afternoon. Have lingered low chance PoPs south of I-70 into Monday evening as the trough slowly settles southward into the Ohio River Valley. Upper low centered over Ontario will be the primary influence over the weather across central Illinois through the middle of the week.
A large ridge of high pressure will provide dry and increasingly warmer temperatures to the Great Basin for the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend. A Pacific trough will bring the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to Nevada by midweek.
With the low level moisture overnight, expect low clouds again with patchy fog to develop late tonight. This will also help to limit cooling tonight and thus expect lows in the lower 70s Monday morning, a few degrees above normal.
155 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017 19z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into NE and another into eastern MT. Upper low spinning over the southeast SK with pinwheeling disturbances rotating around it into the Dakotas.
The culprit is a deep low pressure area over southern Manitoba and northwestern Quebec. Vort maxima will be rotating around the low and over the northland. With a low freezing level, these storms have been very low-topped and especially productive small hail producers. Expect about the same type of weather Monday, but maybe not quite so rambunctious as the temperature lapse rate won't be quite as strong with warmer 500 mb and little instability.
350 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate across South Florida with dry conditions and warm temperatures and highs in the mid 90s.
Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly clear overnight with lows in the low and middle 50s.
High pressure will continue to build over the southwest United States for the Memorial Day Weekend with warmer temperatures, light winds and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of eastern Arizona. No significant changes for the rest of the forecast period as high pressure looks to move into the region.
1046 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure continues building over the Inland Northwest early this week.
The upper level ridge of high pressure is beginning to shift east and will allow coastal clouds to penetrate further inland tonight. Clouds will retreat mostly out of the valley today by the afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday.
Most convection has pushed south of the Tafs, but a weak cold front will drift southeast across central and eastern AR this afternoon to evening, and an isolated shower will be possible. The cold front does remain over AR, and generally still west of LIT near RUE, with a drier airmass and a northwest wind shift. Otherwise, any remaining rain tonight will be focused over far southern AR, as the cold front sags to that area. Mostly cooler and dry on Monday, except possibly far southern AR where forecast models continue to show some energy in the mean upper west flow to move across the area.
352 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 The latest surface map features a cold front aligned from northern Indiana down across southeast Missouri, with another surface boundary moving across the northern Plains. Aloft, an upper level low continues to spiral across southern Manitoba, with cyclonic flow established across the northern Plains and Great Lakes regions. This suppressed activity should continue through early this evening, before temporarily diminishing, before the cold front drops southeast across the area later tonight into early Monday morning. Shower activity will dry up through dawn, as the cold front exits off to the southeast. Dry weather should hold on into Monday night, as we await the next cold front approaching from the northwest.
311 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 The main feature of interest in the short-term is a upper level trough located over the central U. This feature will force a weak cold front into the area tomorrow.
We have some likely pops there now and that expands over much of the area tonight as cold front edges into the area.
The midnight surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge across FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a large outflow boundary (from numerous clusters of thunderstorms) extending from western NC to the AK-OK border. The consensus of CAMs and latest HRRR do not bring the aforementioned outflow boundary far enough south to trigger new thunderstorms today, so we expect another fair weather day with warm temperatures (highs in the lower 90s). Unfortunately the increase in surface humidity will make it feel warmer than what we experienced the past few days.
303 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure has been building into the region today. The cold front that has pushed well south has become stationary across Texas, extending east into Arkansas. This front will gradually return north as a warm front over the next several days.
The today and tonight period will be influenced by upper level low in central Manitoba. This will drop south- southeast slowly and do look for a couple of short waves to move south on the west side of the upper low. Upper level low will move southeast and be over northeastern Minnesota Monday.
A cold front will move through tonight putting the showers and storms to an end and bringing cooler and drier air into the region for Memorial Day Monday and the early work week.
638 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area by this evening as a weak cold front moves across the area from the west tonight.
248 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 The cold front that moved through late last night and early this morning was now making its way through the center part of the state. However a disturbance traversing the southern Rockies will help fire storms over the higher terrain of northern New Mexico during the afternoon hours. Given this low storm chances have been expanded slightly to cover approximately the northwest 1/12th of the CWA.
Cold front currently extends across northwest Tennessee and into west central Arkansas. There could still be some thunderstorms development this afternoon as the cold front pushes slowly south. This will all occur ahead of a surface cold front that will drop south across the region through tonight. Temperatures should again recover into the lower to middle 80s today.
While the lower layers of the atmosphere will remain fairly dry. orbiting around the low over Ern Canada. The global models and the GEFS reforecast and EC ensemble mean cont to fcst cyclonic NW flow Sun-Wed with a high amplitude ridge over Wrn N America and a low over Ontario. The Wrn ridge will deamplify and move E. As this high drifts E of the rgn Wed. the front will begin lifting N and E as a warm front. The "best" chance for a few sct tstms conts to be Wed night into Thu as the warm front lifts thru and an increasing low-lvl jet advects a plume of rich low-lvl moisture back N into the rgn (sfc dwpts 55- 63F and 850 mb dwpts (10-12C).
GOES-R water vapor loop depicted a well-defined circulation moving across northern MN, with a trailing trough axis southwestward through central NE, northwest KS and into southwest CO. High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model develops widely scattered convection across the high plains and mountains this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be 5-10 degrees warmer with highs in the 60s-low 70s outside the mountains. It will be a tad cooler Monday, mainly over the plains, with highs in the 60s to around 70.
Upper trough however remains upstream with some mid and high cloud working its way northeast across the area. Isolated showers recently developed in southwest Kansas but continued southeast movement of the trough should keep anything more than a sprinkle to the southeast. A few upper waves were noted rotating around the upper low in southern Manitoba. Weak but deep subsidence should bring mainly clear skies for today into this evening behind the main upper trough. Modified Pacific airmass will keep temps on the warm side with highs in the lower 80s from most guidance. One of the stronger upper troughs slides southeast into the Great Lakes tonight, with a weak front entering late. High pressure continues to slide southeastward into the state through the day on Memorial Day / Monday.
214 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A cold front has pushed south into Mexico early this afternoon on gusty northerly winds. Temperatures are more tolerable areawide behind the front, with readings running around 15 degrees cooler than yesterday so far this afternoon, and winds have begun to settle down. There were a few showers and thunderstorms along the cold front this morning, but prospects for additional convection/ precipitation appear slim through the rest of the afternoon. There does not appear to be much mid level support for convection during the afternoon/evening, but we could see thunderstorms develop in a modestly unstable, uncapped atmosphere over the higher terrain during max heating.
143 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 With warm and moist air in place, showers and thunderstorms will be possible today ahead of a cold front. Expect a better chance of pcpn to move into our northwest late this afternoon ahead of the approaching mid level short wave and trough axis. While the Sunday evening trough/front will do little to change temperatures over the region, with max temps Monday expected to be very similar to Sunday -- mid 70s to near 80.
Subsidence and heat compression for the approach of a cold front should allow for ambient temperatures to rise a few more degrees allowing for heat indices to exceed 110 degrees this afternoon for all areas of the Rio Grande Valley.
254 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017 An upper-level ridge of high pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move eastward over the next few days.
328 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A cold front was located from southern Indiana through northeast Arkansas and into west Texas. On Monday, the cold front will stall out across central Mississippi so any thunderstorms that form should be over north Mississippi. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 80s.
203 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A cold front has pushed south into Mexico early this afternoon on gusty northerly winds. Temperatures are more tolerable areawide behind the front, with readings running around 15 degrees cooler than yesterday so far this afternoon, and winds have begun to settle down. There were a few showers and thunderstorms along the cold front this morning, but prospects for additional convection/precipitation appear slime through the rest of the afternoon. There does not appear to be much mid level support for convection during the afternoon/evening, but we could see thunderstorms develop in a modestly unstable, uncapped atmosphere over the higher terrain during max heating.
Tomorrow weather will have more cloud cover and a continued chance of isolated/scattered showers, especially closer to the upper low which will slowly move from northern Minnesota, into northern Wisconsin. Normal high temperatures for late May are in the low to mid 70s.
1239 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Showers have developed across western WI overnight ahead of the cold front passing through. As temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by late this morning, some weak surface-based CAPE will develop within the cyclonic flow of the upper low centered just south of Hudson Bay.
1125 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Imagery shows amplified ridge over the wrn CONUS with an amplified positively tilted trof stretching from ecntrl Canada through the nrn High Plains then across the cntrl Rockies. The SFC has high pressure currently entrenched over WY.
An upper ridge will shift inland through Memorial Day.
Greater rain chances will materialize later this evening into tonight as surface ridging pushes east of the Appalachians toward the Atlantic. A dampened impulse across the mid Mississippi Valley will bring additional forcing locally as a warm front approaches the Lake Cumberland region complete with isentropic lift. Downslope winds nearer the higher terrain should keep precipitation muted through much of tonight, but veering profiles will allow this to fill in Thursday morning and afternoon.