Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The arrival of the upper-air system will foster the progression of a surface cold front through the area, and the onset of gusty northwest winds within the post-frontal environment. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 30s north to around 40 across southeast NE and southwest IA.
Forecast Confidence is A weak cold front is making slow but steady progress toward the area from the northwest early this afternoon, and will pass through the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. A little drizzle or a few sprinkles aren't completely out of the question with the low clouds overnight, but chances are very low.
It'll be in the form of snow there with rainshowers to the southwest and possibly some freezing rain in between. The freezing rain will be brief but will monitor this today. Ridge builds up to the west and temperatures will warm as another chinook develops.
256 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 As of 2 pm, the cold front has cleared all but the southern-most counties of the forecast area, with northerly winds of around 15 to 25 mph behind the front, and occasional gusts to the lower 30s. The trough axis shifts east into central TX Friday morning, with subsidence and drier air working in from the northwest. It will be slightly cooler tomorrow with highs mainly in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
1026 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough axis taking shape across the western United States. Mean layer analyses from CIMMS place a broad ridge complex over the western Caribbean, lending to anticylonic lower tropospheric flow across the Florida Keys. Temperatures across the island chain are in the upper 70s, on their way to the lower 80s. High pressure will emerge off the southeast US coast into the western North Atlantic this afternoon, with winds across the waters veering from the east to southeast to south by Friday afternoon.
Based on sounding profiles and GEFS stamps some freezing drizzle could also be present as this clipper moves through tonight into Friday although snow remains the most likely precipitation type. Snow is the most likely precipitation type and it may very well be all snow, but some freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out at this time. Even if freezing drizzle does occur it would be unlikely to lead to any measureable ice accumulation. A chance for freezing drizzle exists from Roseau to Baudette early Sun morning, however most of any precipitation will be over the lake, and any accumulation is expected to be light.
Behind this feature, the main upper level trough will progress across the Mid- South on Friday. At the surface a reinforcing cold front will move through, allowing for additional rain across the Mid- South through Friday afternoon. The weekend looks dry as high pressure builds back in with west/northwest flow aloft.
with another 1-2 inches of accumulation by early evening for the higher elevations. Friday will be dry and cooler, although high temperatures will still be in the 30s at most locations.
This is where the low stratus is expected to remain roughly in place allowing for seeder-feeder processes to take place.
Made a few tweaks to hourly temperatures as some locations in the southern Valley have gotten slightly heavier rain leading to a tad cooler temperatures than the previous forecast. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 59 45 48 30 / 100 80 50 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 60 45 49 29 / 100 80 60 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 47 58 44 47 29 / 100 80 60 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 59 46 49 27 / 100 80 70 70 60 TN.
5 inches with the highest amounts still occurring in the far NW. While temps have been a little cooler than forecast here, the source region for low level heat/moisture over Srn AL and northern Gulf still somewhat warm.
Northerly winds have developed over Colorado Springs and Pueblo, which is indicative of the cold front passing over the plains. The upper level trough axis will pass over the region this morning, cutting precipitation rates over the areas under the Winter Weather Advisory (Sawatch and northern Mosquito Mountains). Snowfall rates don't warrant the Winter Weather Advisory to continue likely past 1200 MDT, but blowing snow will still cause hazardous travel conditions over the higher elevations, therefore the advisory will continue through 1600 MDT. The cold air is being reinforced with the trough passage and cold air advecting from the northwest. Any additional accumulations will remain very light and under an inch across the higher peaks.
258 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough axis sliding east through the Plains. East of the trough axis, a broad expanse of convection has developed from the western Gulf of Mexico through Mississippi. Mean layer analyses from CIMMS place a broad ridge complex over the western Caribbean, lending to anticylonic lower tropospheric flow across the Florida Keys. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s. Dew points are now in the lower 70s, compared to the lower 60s yesterday morning. High pressure near Bermuda will recede to the east tonight through Friday night.
209 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 As return flow interacts with a southward moving cold front late tonight, southeast Oklahoma may see some isolated showers. This could continue into the morning hours as the upper low moves into the area. Clearing in northwest Oklahoma will likely result in lower temperatures dipping to near or below freezing.
111 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 High pressure will shift offshore today ahead of a front that will bring a chance of showers through Friday night.
Otherwise, the remaining forecast area will stay dry on Friday, as a transitory ridge builds to our west. Warmer air moving in aloft will relax lapse rates though temperatures will remain below normal across the region as we round out the workweek.
A passenger ship in the Straits south of the seven mile bridge reported winds from the southeast of 19 knots, which provides some confidence that winds in the straits have already reached caution criteria. Regardless, as the ridge off the southeastern seaboard continues to meander eastward, and troughing digs into the western Gulf, the gradient will continue to tighten and winds will continue their slow increase overnight.
With upper level ridging in place we are seeing nice conditions across NorCal with mainly clear skies. Temperatures are running a bit warmer than yesterday this time especially in the northern Sac Valley where a light north wind is making things about 10 degree warmer than yesterday this time. This will push Valley temperatures in to the low to mid 60s with some upper 60s possible in the Redding area. Dry conditions will continue on Friday but we will see increasing clouds as the upper level ridge pushes off to the east.
559 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 /00Z TAFS/ An upper level trough will move across the region overnight, with an associated weak cold front passing through the terminals. /issued 251 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) A cold front will move through the area tonight, with winds becoming north at 10 to 20 mph for Friday. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Widespread cloud cover has been dominant across much of the north-central portion of the US with much of this low cloud cover expected to shift into much of WI through this time period. Not expecting much precipitation from these features; however, as the low approaches from the west Friday afternoon and moisture deepens, there could be some light snow showers that build into central WI very late Friday afternoon. Otherwise, continued the trend of keeping temperatures a bit warmer tonight and a bit colder Friday with continued cloud cover across the area.
High pressure will shepherd in dry weather and warmer temperatures starting Friday and over the weekend.
while IFR/MVFR conditions spread over Northwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma as an area of low pressure moves into the region. Some areas of light drizzle/rain will be possible within the IFR conditions through Friday morning ahead of a cold front pushing through the CWA. Behind the cold front. The main axis of precipitation will remain well east of the region, although should see some light measurable rainfall tonight and into Friday from southeast OK into western AR as the main upper trof approaches. The cold front will move through the area by late Friday morning, with afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than today.
Other than a few sprinkles in far southeastern portions of the forecast area, quiet conditions are expected in the wake of a cold frontal passage this evening. A strong upper wave evident in water vapor over southern Alberta will dive southeastward tonight and Friday, pushing a reinforcing shot of cold air advection into the Plains and holding tomorrow's high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
Overcast conditions were occuring this afternoon across the area as moisture continues to stream north into the area ahead of a deep trough. Water vapor imagery showed this trough well with several pieces of energy rotating around it from eastern Arizona into Mexico then back up into Texas.
The overnight lows will not vary too much from the day, dropping into the low to mid 50s. Cloudy and showery activity throughout Friday through the area, southerly winds keeping the high temperatures into the low to mid 60s.
603 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Split flow upper air pattern across North America features a deep trof centered across the Southern Plains into Mexico with a pair of northern disturbances across Ontario and Alberta.
/issued 209 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ As return flow interacts with a southward moving cold front late tonight, southeast Oklahoma may see some isolated showers. This could continue into the morning hours as the upper low moves into the area. Clearing in northwest Oklahoma will likely result in lower temperatures dipping to near or below freezing.
220 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 Building high pressure will result in dry weather and temperatures finally rising to above normal levels beginning this weekend. With the nocturnal inversion setting up quickly this evening, dry air and clear skies will promote another night of chilly conditions (albeit still remaining above freezing for most lower elevation communities). While the flattening ridge may support periods of thin, cirrus streaming into the forecast area, more prolonged periods of bright sunshine are likely. Height falls may only be modest though the middle of the week and some measure of quasi-zonal flow may be maintained until sharper troughing arrives during the latter half of the week.
Temperatures are still expected to remain above freezing, so precip will remain all liquid. /issued 256 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ As of 2 pm, the cold front has cleared all but the southern-most counties of the forecast area, with northerly winds of around 15 to 25 mph behind the front, and occasional gusts to the lower 30s. The trough axis shifts east into central TX Friday morning, with subsidence and drier air working in from the northwest. It will be slightly cooler tomorrow with highs mainly in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
An approaching cold front will arrive I-35 terminals by 14-16Z. Global models appear to have underestimated the forcing and mid level pool of moisture in the base of the trough this afternoon across Far West Texas and northern Mexico. The base of the trough is forecast to swing through the CWA Friday morning. Clearing is expected southwest to northeast Friday afternoon, however cooler conditions behind a cold front are forecast with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s across the Hill Country to low 60s elsewhere.
High pressure aloft will expand across the western states Friday, followed by a couple of weather disturbances crossing northern Utah over the weekend. Ridging building in as the column warms aloft. Gusty NW winds in the higher terrain has been translating into adjacent valleys at times, with winds nearing Wind Advisory criteria near Castle Country. This activity will diminish into this evening as upstream ridging and drier air build into the forecast area through the start of the weekend. High pressure will dominate on Friday, brining milder temperatures to the mountains, but only slight moderation to the valleys as an inversion starts to develop.
The low clouds, a northwesterly wind shift, and cooler temps are expected to reach eastern Iowa and northern Illinois from late this afternoon into tonight. Tonight through Friday Morning Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a cold front moves through the area dropping temps into the mid 20s to low 30s.
A brief ridge of high pressure overhead, extending from the southwest, will sink to the southeast as a clipper system moves in from the northwest. Behind the low, expect the increased pressure gradient to assist in winds increasing out of the northwest 15-20kts with gusts around 25-30kts. The strongest winds should be across areas west of the James River 06Z-15Z before moderating across our eastern counties as the low shifts into southern MN. Expect a ridge of high pressure to slide across the Dakotas and NE Friday night.
High pressure building over the area tonight will allow for clearing skies and some patchy valley fog to develop across the area. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected Friday before a couple of weak weather systems move through the state bringing light snow showers to northern Nevada over the weekend.
706 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Rain will overspread the region ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Upper Midwest and a surface front running southwest to northeast through Indiana.
Cloud cover on the increase ahead of the approaching cold front to our west. Deep layer south-southwesterly flow continues to advect warmer air and Gulf moisture to the region. Lows tonight remain well above normal in the low to mid 60s.
Building high pressure will result in dry weather and temperatures finally rising to above normal levels beginning this weekend. With the nocturnal inversion setting up quickly this evening, dry air and clear skies will promote another night of chilly conditions (albeit still remaining above freezing for most lower elevation communities). While the flattening ridge may support periods of thin, cirrus streaming into the forecast area, more prolonged periods of bright sunshine are likely. Height falls may only be modest though the middle of the week and some measure of quasi-zonal flow may be maintained until sharper troughing arrives during the latter half of the week. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry north to northwest flow aloft will spread across the western deserts over the next 24 hours as high pressure aloft builds into the area from the west.
Upper trough shifts east and south away from the Panhandles Friday with a drier north northwesterly upper flow and subsidence expected across the forecast area.
We added some freezing drizzle/freezing rain mix with snow across the east central this evening, where the lack of ice crystals aloft suggest this may be possible. Highs will be in the mid 20s most of the region, to the lower 30s southwest.
715 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 High pressure east of the Florida peninsula is creating southeast boundary layer flow across west central and southwest Florida which is advecting warm moist air back over the region.
Clouds remain behind departing cold front. Little cooling ahead of next system with overnight lows expected to remain in the low-mid 20s most areas, perhaps a few teens over the far northeast CWA. Most models drop this southeast overnight and gradually close off an upper trough over southern MN later in the day Friday. The higher totals should be limited to along the Minnesota River corridor and south central MN along the MN/IA border. Here the totals could make 3 inches as the upper low slows as it drops southeast.
217 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 Current surface map places cold front across eastern Montana. Large scale subsidence across the area Friday as trof moves east of the area. Low level warm advection kicks in Friday night as upper level ridge builds across the North Plains.
/issued 256 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ As of 2 pm, the cold front has cleared all but the southern-most counties of the forecast area, with northerly winds of around 15 to 25 mph behind the front, and occasional gusts to the lower 30s. The trough axis shifts east into central TX Friday morning, with subsidence and drier air working in from the northwest. It will be slightly cooler tomorrow with highs mainly in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
431 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Pre-frontal trough near a Tupelo to Lake Charles line at 3 pm CST. Line of thunderstorms is along the pre-frontal trough with cells moving northeastward at 40 to 50 mph. Prefrontal trough will continue to move eastward this evening, and will be east of the CWA before sunrise. Main front will take considerably longer to get through the area as low pressure moves along the front. Any severe weather or heavy rain threat will be ahead of the pre-frontal trough, mainly over the next 6-9 hours.
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 40s areawide. At the surface, the cold front that passed through earlier today is now located in southeastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Texas. Aloft, an elongated trough of low pressure extends from the northern US border into New Mexico.
Heading into Friday afternoon, conditions will gradually improve as a cold front sweeps through Arkansas from the Plains.
As indicated in the latest WPC mesoscale discussion, a band of heavy rain, possibly convectively enhanced, will lift up into the area late this evening ahead of a low pressure wave.
/issued 157 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ A secondary shrtwv trof will drop sewd across NM tonight resulting in an expansion of precip from 00Z onward. Temps will remain on the cool side Fri PM in the nw flow aloft in wake of trof. Lee troffing will favor warming Sat with temps back into the 60s.
Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend as ridging sets up across the Desert Southwest. The high at McCarran International Airport broke into the 60s this afternoon for which we can thank the high pressure system off the California coast. These above-average temperatures will continue through the weekend as the high inches eastward. As the weekend progresses, a trough will set up over the Pacific Northwest, which will effectively squish the high pressure south of our area.
412 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 Current surface map places cold front across eastern Montana. Large scale subsidence across the area Friday as trof moves east of the area. Low level warm advection kicks in Friday night as upper level ridge builds across the North Plains.
Dry northerly flow aloft will be found over the area on Fri, although there could again be a few light snow showers over some of the high elevations of Lake County. Some gusty winds will be found over the mountains on Fri, but most of the lower elevations will see relatively light winds.
There will still be some light snow showers over the ridges, but accumulations will be less than 2 inches. There's a small threat of high winds over the higher elevations of the Front Range on Friday, but more likely 40-60 mph gusts will become widespread, and could occasionally spill into the lower foothills. Model soundings suggest a couple degrees warmer than what we had forecast for highs Friday, and better mixing should make that happen as long as the cloud cover isn't too thick.
245 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 At 06Z, WV imagery showed the secondary trough centered directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/area radars showing the core just east of KMAF. W/current obs/trends, and the position of the trough, total accumulations may be less than previously thought, but still enough to justify the current advisory. SHRA will taper off late this afternoon over the Stockton Plateau as the trough exits to the east, and a dry spell will set in and persist through the extended. Although temps should top out right around normal this afternoon, they will increase modestly over the next few days as weak ridging follows the trough.
Areas of low clouds and fog will cover parts of southeast Oklahoma through about 10Z, ahead of a surface cold front. Once those clouds move out, high pressure will move into the region, with the attendant increasing ceiling heights and eventual clearing. /issued 209 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ As return flow interacts with a southward moving cold front late tonight, southeast Oklahoma may see some isolated showers. This could continue into the morning hours as the upper low moves into the area. Clearing in northwest Oklahoma will likely result in lower temperatures dipping to near or below freezing.
1019 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region early Friday.
Use extreme caution if you must travel, and do not drive over roads you cannot see! Friday will be a transition day of sorts across the area with the area of low pressure having moved N and E of the region by midday.
114 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Rain will overspread the region ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Upper Midwest and a surface front running southwest to northeast through Indiana.
A weak cold front has moved through the KABI terminal this evening and will move through the rest of the area overnight. /issued 559 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ /00Z TAFS/ An upper level trough will move across the region overnight, with an associated weak cold front passing through the terminals. /issued 251 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) A cold front will move through the area tonight, with winds becoming north at 10 to 20 mph for Friday. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
The heavier rain has shifted east into Alabama though light to moderate rain will continue overnight into Friday in advance of the approaching upper trough and cold front. Behind this feature, the main upper level trough will progress across the Mid- South on Friday. At the surface a reinforcing cold front will move through, allowing for additional rain across the Mid- South through Friday afternoon. The weekend looks dry as high pressure builds back in with west/northwest flow aloft.
The main cold front passes late tonight, and scattered light showers will continue ahead. big cool down coming as closed upper low skirts the area later Sat. Upper trough finally moves out Sat night and brings a quick dry period through Mon while temps rapidly moderate. possibly ending as a mix or a few snow showers Plateau as this passing upper trough swings east Tue night.
Warm front moving across the region brought a fairly large area of rain and mountain snow this afternoon and early evening. Upper level ridge builds in Friday. Satellite showing plenty of mid and high level clouds within the ridge so partly cloudy skies.
The 00Z KCRP sounding has a very thick dry layer just off the surface that should help evaporate rain falling from the high level clouds, although a few sprinkles could be possible at the ground.
A trough dives southeast out of the Northern Plains today and will sweep across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this afternoon into this evening.
Some patchy areas of light drizzle/rain and or reduced visibility will be possible early Friday morning as a cold front moves through the CWA. A cold front is making southeastward progress across the area this evening and is likely to clear the entire forecast area by morning. Rain chances through the rest of the evening and even into early tomorrow morning appear to be fairly low, but some increase in coverage across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be possible toward daybreak and into the daylight hours tomorrow as the upper trough axis moves through. The main changes to the going forecast, besides the aforementioned changes to the low temperatures, have been to lower POPs through midnight and account for a brief period of reduced cloudiness in southeast Oklahoma as a result of the dry slot.
With the PV anomaly moving over the area after sunset, the potential for snow squalls will be minimized due to loss of surface heating enhancing the low-level lapse rates.