Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Upper low lifting northward through Manitoba will continue to push a weak cold front through the east half of Upper Mi late this afternoon and evening. Tonight, surface ridging over the Midwest will build into the Upper Lakes with a clear and seasonable night expected. Troughing moves in across the NE and GL region behind a shrtwv on Sunday evening as deep troughing moves off the PacNW. Between these two features, anomalous ridging buildings over the inter mtn west, which leaves the UP in predominately NW flow through the week.
We do expect some low cloud development early Sunday morning, but with winds veering in the low-levels, we will only mention a TEMPO group for MVFR at SAT and SSF between 09-12Z. Subtropical ridging centered nearby maintains a dry subsident airmass aloft with no rain expected. On Sunday, the Subtropical ridging drifts to the northwest allowing a northerly flow aloft.
226 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 H5 weakness is expected to rotate around the core of the high pressure center located across SERN NM this afternoon and evening. The highest risk of seeing storms will be the southwestern panhandle then extending eastward into the north central counties as the overnight hours progress.
Otherwise, expect low temperatures in the low to mid 70s overnight.
An intensifying upper level ridge will dominate the weather pattern to start the week.
141 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A broad area of high pressure building across the Upper to Mid Mississippi River Valley over the weekend will lead to mainly sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures compared to the long stretch of hot and humid weather experienced for much of early June. Lows in the 50s to near 60 overnight tonight with dew points in the mid 40s to near 50 - dry and comfortable enough to open up the windows! On Sunday as the area of high pressure builds southward, low level flow becomes westerly with some warmer air advecting in from the west. This will lead to highs in the low 90s under mainly sunny skies.
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will drop in from the north late today. Later tonight after the main threat for showers and storms ends, low clouds and possibly even some drizzle should develop as a weak high pressure wedge develops. Sunday: A cold front will linger across the area before shifting offshore late while deep troughing helps maintain PWATs around 2. While the bulk of the precipitation will largely depend on the timing and placement of the cold front, there could also be convection along the sea breeze and other boundaries that form. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days, topping out in the mid 80s.
217 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 (Issued 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Instability axis extending into eastern WI combined with some boundary interactions and inverted trough axis all combining to set off isolated convection. After lingering low level thermal trough early, we will see a quick shot of some waa ahead of a low dropping southeast from MN into NW WI. The low is proggd to work through srn WI Sunday night with a cold front bringing a sharp change in winds and a cool-down especially with winds flopping northeast off the lake.
122 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A strong upper ridge will build across the Rockies over the next 24 hours.
With the ridging continuing in the west and northerly mid level flow over the area, not much airmass change will occur through Sunday.
The models are in good agreement showing sfc dew points across wrn Nebraska rising into the low to mid 60s Sunday afternoon. A weak subtropical disturbance across nrn AZ this afternoon should lift north through Colorado/WY tonight and then move east Sunday as it rounds the top of a building upper level ridge centered over NM this afternoon. A Pacific high pressure system and associated sfc cold front should drift through SD late tonight and be located near or just north of the SD/Neb border Sunday afternoon.
Dewpoints climb into the lower 70s to the southwest of this feature yielding MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. Otherwise, it'll continue to be hot and humid with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
Conditions will be much less oppressive than recent days, but still much warmer than average for the date, as the drier air will readily warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s. The entire extended remains dominated by warmer than normal highs with plenty of sunshine, and for the most part, dry air as a high pressure system dominates the weather through late in the week.
This wave will go across the top of the ridge across southern Canada tonight, then dive southeast across the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday. Southwest winds will bring the thermal ridge back across the area, with another day of highs in the low to mid 90s expected for Sunday.
308 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a mid-upper level trough axis pivoting southeastward into northern Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a weakened ridge axis stretches west across the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida, while a broad trough axis rotates into southern Georgia and northern Florida. The mid-upper level trough will continue to the south tonight, eroding any lingering subsidence associated with the broad anticyclone centered over the CAG.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 100s along the Rio Grande today, with 90s elsewhere. Humid conditions remain in place overnight and with southerly flow in the low-levels it will be warm again. However, with winds veering in the low-levels, clouds may not be quite as expansive as the last few days. Little change in the forecast is anticipated for Sunday and we will once again see highs in the lower 100s along the Rio Grande, with mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
For tonight, a short wave trough moving across to our north into southern Canada will push a surface front/trough across our cwa from late tonight through Sunday. This front/trough will be dry and only bring a shift in the wind to the northwest along with some high level clouds. The models then show the winds turning northeast and east through Sunday night with upper heights/ridging building into the western part of the region. Some indications are that short wave energy coming over the ridge Sunday night may bring some showers/storms to the southern part of South Dakota possibly affecting our southern cwa south of Pierre.
An upper level trough continues to reside over the southeastern U. This helps promote northwesterly flow aloft today, becoming northerly by Sunday as upper level ridging to the west shifts slightly east. may gradually attempt to close off into an area of low pressure by Sunday over GA or just offshore the GA coastline, and a weak/diffuse surface boundary dropping south across the CWA today helps to shift surface winds from westerly to northwesterly by the evening hours. Likewise, our MLCAPE is high generally between 2,500 to 3,500j/kg, with the higher values becoming more widespread through peak heating. Temperatures overnight tonight will bottom out in the lower to middle 70's.
322 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Much quieter weather today as high pressure and a drier airmass settles over the region. The upper ridge will amplify over the western states allowing daytime temperatures to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s through at least midweek. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure and a drier airmass settles over the region.
235 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening, until a weak cold front passes through the area.
Later tonight through Sunday morning, high pressure rebuilds and daytime high temperatures rise with the building ridge.
(This evening through Sunday) Another muggy evening is expected with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s area wide and temps hanging around 85 to 90 near sunset. Late tonight into the early morning hours a few showers and thunderstorms may try to move off the high plains into western OK and north TX. Hot and muggy conditions will continue Sunday under the influence of the subtropical ridge axis. A remnant vort max from the overnight convection rotating around the eastern fringe of the ridge axis and a cold pocket aloft could result in a few diurnal thunderstorms developing within an instability axis (uncapped for the most part) across western OK and north TX late tomorrow afternoon thru Sunday evening.
Rain chances then decrease behind the surface front on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure bulges eastward into the lower OH Valley.
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s in the lower valleys today before increasing to record to near record values in the upper 90s to lower 100s on Sunday. The heat will develop in response to an amplifying upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies and increased southerly flow aloft.
Sunday may be a little cooler than today, but still hot with heat indices nearing 100.
The one exception is a bit of Stratocumulus over eastern Lincoln County pushing in on the low level southeasterly flow. Upper level ridge will begin to build over the Central and Southern Rockies today. Expect highs to be about 10F warmer than yesterday. Should see cumulus clouds form this afternoon over the higher terrain, most of them will be south of Interstate 70. Hot and dry conditions will persist through the week as a large ridge builds over the Rockies.
Winds were light and variable with plenty of low level moisture pooling along the front with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure will settle south overnight towards the area and a drier airmass will move in. It will not feel as warm however with the lower humidity in place. Most of this week the area will be located between the mid level ridge out west and a trough in the eastern US.
403 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will pass across the region late tonight into Sunday.
1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 At 1 am, the cold front was located a long a KEAU-KDSM line with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s promptly behind the front, followed rapidly by 50s.
High pressure still in control of the weather across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. a cold front lays across western Montana to central Idaho to northwestern Nevada. That surface front/trough moves into our northern zones Sunday afternoon.
On Sunday, similar heat and humidity coupled with the passage of a cold front will reignite scattered thunderstorms across the area. A deepening trough over the eastern states will allow a few waves of fresh Canadian air to bring some cooler and much less humid air to Tennessee for several days. Upper trough over the mid-state finally moving off the plateau.
239 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 High pressure will slowly drift east tonight and allow southerly flow to develop.
1145 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Very warm and dry conditions as a strong upper-level ridge sits over northwest Wyoming.
Scattered showers and storms will develop late this afternoon and continue into the evening mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of a weak cold front. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected across northeast MO tonight and the rest of the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. The most noticeable change Sunday and Sunday night will be the lowering surface dew points making it feel much more comfortable.
Shower and storm activity should be lower in overall coverage on Sunday as the broad upper trough is finally replaced with upper level ridging and a somewhat drier northerly to northeasterly weak flow at the surface. Temps will start to bump up a bit higher for daytime highs, easily reaching the lower 90s.
1120 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Height rises kick in today as an area of high pressure currently over SE New Mexico and western Texas slowly begins to move northward. Anticyclonic flow around the area of high pressure will keep broad southwesterly flow over our CWA. High temperatures will continue to run on the warm side of things with highs running about 10 degrees warmer than usual. Tomorrow, the center of high pressure inches closer and brings warmer temps with it.
523 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Broad upper ridge is over the northern Plains with deep trof off the Pacific coast. However, light winds around the Black Hills are southeast along the east side, so temperatures in the Rapid City area have been cooler. Hot and mainly dry conditions will prevail for the first part of the week as upper ridge rebounds.
/issued 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/ H5 weakness is expected to rotate around the core of the high pressure center located across SERN NM this afternoon and evening. The highest risk of seeing storms will be the southwestern panhandle then extending eastward into the north central counties as the overnight hours progress.
Remaining mild and muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s. A weak, though energetic, 500mb trough will move south over FL late tonight into Sunday, helping to generate broad lift across much of the region. Another hot day as highs reach the low 90s.
929 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening, until a weak cold front passes through the area.
On Sunday, similar heat and humidity coupled with the passage of a cold front will reignite scattered thunderstorms across the area. A deepening trough over the eastern states will allow a few waves of fresh Canadian air to bring some cooler and much less humid air to Tennessee for several days.
536 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 High pressure will slowly drift east tonight and allow southerly flow to develop.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday with a crossing cold front. Later in the night, a trough over the Great lakes will begin to track southeast into the forecast area.
1034 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Currently - Weak ridging barely holds on as it extends westwards across the Florida Straits and into another weak ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, troughing is lingering over and just offshore of the southeast Atlantic coastal states. The lower level trough over the southeast reaches southwards into South Florida resulting in a west southwesterly steering flow. Short Term Update - Weak ridging will shift a bit further southwards as the previously mentioned trough nudges southward.
517 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A strong upper ridge will build across the Rockies over the next 24 hours.
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Another muggy evening is expected with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s area wide and temps hanging around 85 to 90 near sunset. Late tonight into the early morning hours a few showers and thunderstorms may try to move off the high plains into western OK and north TX. Hot and muggy conditions will continue Sunday under the influence of the subtropical ridge axis. A remnant vort max from the overnight convection rotating around the eastern fringe of the ridge axis and a cold pocket aloft could result in a few diurnal thunderstorms developing within an instability axis (uncapped for the most part) across western OK and north TX late tomorrow afternoon thru Sunday evening.
640 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Much quieter weather today as high pressure and a drier airmass settles over the region. The upper ridge will amplify over the western states allowing daytime temperatures to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s through at least midweek.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms Sunday and high temperatures will tick a few degrees warmer. A little cooler and quiet for the start of the work week with temperatures still above normal, in the middle 70s to middle 80s. Warmer temps return to the picture for the latter half of the week with an increase in rain chances. High pressure was centered over the eastern Dakotas, western Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and western Iowa this afternoon. Strong west and northwest winds had developed due to the tight pressure gradient between an area of low pressure over northern Manitoba and the high pressure over the Northern Plains.
635 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A broad area of high pressure building across the Upper to Mid Mississippi River Valley over the weekend will lead to mainly sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures compared to the long stretch of hot and humid weather experienced for much of early June. Lows in the 50s to near 60 overnight tonight with dew points in the mid 40s to near 50 - dry and comfortable enough to open up the windows! On Sunday as the area of high pressure builds southward, low level flow becomes westerly with some warmer air advecting in from the west. This will lead to highs in the low 90s under mainly sunny skies.
Visible satellite imagery and sfc observations early this afternoon has indicated convergence of the low-lvl wind field aligned generally N-S across central parts of the area.
Stratus continues to erode toward the southeast, with overcast skies still holding on in the Lower Susq and over Schuylkill Co.
With the latest trough now well past, the upper ridge in the southern Rockies is free to expand northward and westward into our area, while the next Pacific trough stays offshore.
Sctd SHRA/TSRA expected to develop during the day Sunday as ridging aloft begins to break down.
910 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will pass across the region late tonight into Sunday.
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will pass across the region late tonight into Sunday.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 92 71 92 69 / 50 30 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 89 69 89 66 / 20 30 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 67 89 68 90 66 / 40 40 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 86 66 87 62 / 30 30 30 10 10.
RAH (Issued 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Instability axis extending into eastern WI combined with some boundary interactions and inverted trough axis all combining to set off isolated convection. After lingering low level thermal trough early, we will see a quick shot of some waa ahead of a low dropping southeast from MN into NW WI. The low is proggd to work through srn WI Sunday night with a cold front bringing a sharp change in winds and a cool-down especially with winds flopping northeast off the lake.
729 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will slowly move east across the area tonight through Sunday.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 92 71 92 69 / 10 30 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 89 69 89 66 / 20 30 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 67 89 68 90 66 / 20 40 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 86 66 87 62 / 30 30 30 10 10.
Water vapor imagery at 20Z continues to show broad upper ridging across Mexico and much of the CONUS, aside from one upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast and another over Manitoba impacting the flow in the northernmost states. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Northern/Central Plains and this will dominate our weather over the short-term. Sunday's highs warm slightly to the low 90s for most as the upper ridge amplifies over the western US.
South-southeasterly winds are covering most of the plains right now with a Denver cyclone centered over DIA.
1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will slowly move east across the area tonight through Sunday.
Surface analysis this evening places a cold front from Southern Illinois back through Southern Missouri and into Oklahoma. These thunderstorms dissipated in the past couple of hours across the Mid-South and were triggered mostly by convective temperatures being reached while the 00Z upper air analysis indicated the Lower Mississippi Valley being on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge axis. The aforementioned cold front over Southern Missouri is anticipated to drop into the Mid-South overnight into Sunday morning. Sunday may be a little cooler than today, but still hot with heat indices nearing 100.
Have tweaked overnight lows to better account for these cooler temperatures, with lows in the upper 60s along and east of I-65 and lower 70s over NW AL.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through much of the upcoming week. This high pressure will become centered over the four corners region by the middle of the week, allowing mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of isolated mainly dry thunderstorms. The upper pattern is defined by a ridge of high pressure extending from central Sonora Mexico into east central New Mexico.
Strong convection continues over se Georgia this evening as upper trough lingers over the area with short wave energy rotating south into the base of trough. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected again on Sunday as the trough axis sinks south into north Florida by evening.
821 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Upper low lifting northward through Manitoba will continue to push a weak cold front through the east half of Upper Mi late this afternoon and evening. Tonight, surface ridging over the Midwest will build into the Upper Lakes with a clear and seasonable night expected. Troughing moves in across the NE and GL region behind a shrtwv on Sunday evening as deep troughing moves off the PacNW. Between these two features, anomalous ridging buildings over the inter mtn west, which leaves the UP in predominately NW flow through the week.
Despite the recent rainfall, hedged toward slightly warmer/drier side of guidance for temps/dew points this afternoon, as southwest-west low level flow tends to favor deeper mixing, which should aid in mixing down the warmer air within the thermal ridge ahead of the front. The result is highs in the lower-mid 90s, and afternoon humidity levels near 25% (give or take a couple percent) for areas near/southeast of KYKN-KFSD-KMML line. A stronger upper level trough pushes into the Canadian Prairies midweek, forcing the upper ridge axis southward, extending from the southern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley.
Ahead of the front, dew points will be in the lower to mid 70s and temperatures mainly in the lower 90s.
Max temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for most of us today, with warmer and drier conditions the farther south and west you go.
By this afternoon, additional storms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado, which will then move south and east this evening.
330 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Warm and less humid today, showers/storms tonight - Pleasant and mostly dry next few days - Likely warmer and a chance of precipitation late week -- Warm and less humid today, showers/storms tonight -- A few lingering areas of fog or low clouds this morning will quickly mix out. While it will be warmer than normal again today, it will be noticeably less humid as dew points drop into the 50s and perhaps upper 40s. An upper level trough digging into the region from the northwest tonight will aid the development of showers and perhaps thunderstorms, as moisture around 10,000 feet / 700 mb may have just enough potential instability for convection and increased rainfall rates.
226 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains off to the west of the area.
218 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The big story remains HEAT as a strong ridge builds ahead of a deep trof off the Pacific coast, allowing for a very warm air mass to surge out of the desert southwest.
105 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak cold front will cross the region through this afternoon. High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight.
Light winds tonight with lows dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs Sunday again back into the lower 90s. Nighttime lows in the mid 60s, and daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s as an upper level ridge remains firmly entrenched across the central US. Similar weather could occur Monday night with convection possible across the High Plains but remaining west of our forecast area.
Think that as the trough makes it into northern WI a good cluster of storms will form and these drop SE and clip our far NE locations. The drier low levels and stronger shear should allow for a few stronger gusts and do think we'll see a decent gust front combined with a cold front will work it's way south through the area. The more northerly winds will keep temps a little cooler by the lake but still expecting mid 80s for inland locations.