Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The southeasterly jet will be perpendicular to the mountains leading to some downsloping near the peaks and foothills, so the highest winds will be in those areas except for also across Cherokee/Clay closer to the circluation and associated wind core. Regarding the lower elevations, most gusts that mix down will be in the 25-35 mph range, but there is some potential for gusts over 40 mph in heavier rain bands, or if the core of the circulation tracks slightly farther NW. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 78 50 60 43 / 100 70 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 77 50 57 40 / 100 100 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 66 76 49 57 40 / 100 100 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 75 47 54 36 / 100 100 40 10 0 NC.
Given the lack of additional cold air northwest of the low, afternoon temperatures Thursday will likely warm well into the upper 40s to near 50, especially across far west central Kansas.
Current GOES 16 WV satellite imagery depicts an upper-level closed low spinning into the Red River Valley of Texas. In glancing at the latest NBM probabilities and HREF runs, our confidence remains high that a swath of 1-3 inches of rainfall will spread across the entire area this evening into Thursday afternoon, with the higher amounts along and south of I-44.
(This evening through Thursday) Except for northwest Oklahoma, most areas have risen to freezing or just above. Additionally, even after temperatures rise above freezing, gusty winds across the area tonight and tomorrow could result in additional damage in areas where trees have been weakened by ice. As the upper low makes its way across north Texas / southern Oklahoma, wrap around precipitation will pick up across northern Oklahoma overnight. As the upper low departs, rain should end west to east.
The two primary features of note on satellite imagery this afternoon are the closed low rotating over western New Mexico and Texas Panhandle, and Hurricane Zeta just off the coast of Louisiana. On the other hand, the closed low will bring rain chances to a good portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri through tomorrow. As this low begins to open and merge into main westerly flow, an 850 mb jet streak of 40 to 50 kts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, steepening lapse rates, and a steep pressure gradient will prevent the boundary layer from fully decoupling tonight through Thursday morning. Winds will gradually decrease after 18Z as the low moves off to the east.
Meanwhile, a cold front will push south across the rest of the region later this evening. Although there will not be much moisture with this cold front, winds will turn to a favorable direction for some light lake effect precipitation across far north-central Wisconsin along with the Lake Michigan shoreline later tonight. High pressure will build into the region behind the cold front on Thursday. Continued northerly winds will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs ranging from the lower to middle 30s across the north, to around 40 across central and east-central Wisconsin.
A weak cold front has moved through during the day, and only has portions of NW Iowa to remaining before it exits our area. As our next jet max arrives overhead, a weak high pressure system pulls off to the east beginning to turn winds southerly from west to east.
High pressure over the region continues to support valley inversions and stagnant air. While temperatures are a bit warmer than yesterday they are not reaching their full potential thanks to the strong inversions.
This clearing will be short lived, however, as an approaching cold front currently situated across northern Minnesota is already bringing cloud cover back in over the far northern reaches of our CWA, but no precipitation is expected. Overcast conditions will continue to work their way southward through this evening, which will help prevent our lows from tumbling quite as far as they normally would behind a late October cold front. We'll see widespread readings in the mid to upper 20s overnight, with highs tomorrow several degrees cooler than today.
1118 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The closed low is currently over southern New Mexico and is expected to track east-northeastward today. The only lasting impacts from this low is stratus across portions of the upper San Juan river valley. This stratus will keep temperatures warmer than surrounding locations and should scatter out later this morning. Warm air advection will continue and result in highs being 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The higher October sun angle is working efficiently to melt the recent snow, but this is adding moisture into the boundary layer. The winds do weaken aloft as the low departs the region so that may play a role in the inversions. Tomorrow a ridge tries to build into the region, but it quickly gets suppressed by a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest.
So the combination of limited moisture advection along with drier air in place across northern Kansas should result in much of the associated precipitation remaining generally along and south of I-70 as the low pivots eastward over Oklahoma into Arkansas tonight into AM Thursday. As for temperatures, have continued to trend a bit cooler for lows tonight (low/mid 30s) across far northern Kansas as a result of limited cloud cover with the precipitation remaining further south over east central KS. While a mid-level trough looks to dive southward across the Northern Plains this weekend, pushing a cold front through the area Sat.
VFR conditions tomorrow with some higher westerly to northwesterly winds as the low tracks across northern TX. As the low moves to the northeast tomorrow, the wind speeds will lessen starting in the late afternoon and evening.
138 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Warm air advection across the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front moving south across central MN/northern WI. Look for that cold front to drop through the area this evening with an increase in stratus/stratocumulus behind the front. Low cloud look to linger through at least the morning hours tomorrow, but then scattering out in the afternoon as high pressure builds in. Otherwise, a cooler day on tap with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
234 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 H5 ridge continues to stretch across the southwest today, keeping weather systems deflected well to the north.
Temperatures will certainly be cooler on Thursday than today with some guidance keeping stratus over the region most of the morning and thick cloud cover the remainder of the day. The clouds will help suppress daytime highs to around or just above freezing for most of the forecast area.
Current temperatures are in the lower 50s across portions of Northeast Arkansas while it is in the mid 70s across Northeast Mississippi. Zeta will quickly lift off to the northeast while an upper low that is located across the Southern Plains will begin moving eastward. Rain associated with the upper low will move begin to move into Eastern Arkansas by sunrise.
204 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Precipitation associated with the upper low moving across the southern plains has been slow to move northward.
With the large upper level low advancing east across North Texas, skies have cleared from west to east as dry air has intruded across the region with the passing of a 850 mb front. With wrap around moisture with the upper low, may see scattered clouds across the Hill country on Thursday. Another cold night will be expected with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to the low to mid 40s.
135 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2020 High pressure will prevail over eastern California and western Nevada for the upcoming week. We have now reached the dry and quiet steady-state weather pattern with high pressure over CA-NV remaining largely in place for the next several days.
328 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Showers will spread northward into the forecast area late this afternoon and this evening ahead of the cut-off upper level low moving slowly eastward through the Southern Plains. Plenty of Gulf moisture will stream northward ahead of the upper level low as Hurricane Zeta makes landfall and moves northeastward into the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday. A second area of rain will move eastward through southern portions of MO and IL on Thursday in the deformation zone ahead and left of the track of the upper low which will move through AR and into TN as it opens up and gradually weakens.
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 (Issued 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020) Tonight and Thursday: Surface-850 cold front is proggd to slide southward through WI this evening with a decided shift in the winds to the north and northeast. While the bulk of the mid deck associated with the low/waa zone will remain to our north, we are expecting to see lower clouds increase later tonight into Thursday as the lower level thermal trough gets more entrenched across the area. Meanwhile, with the remnants of Zeta heading into the southeast US, this will set up a tightening pressure gradient all the way into our area between that system and a high pressure ridge in the Plains.
154 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2020 Following the passage of a strong low pressure system, Thursday highs will reach to around normal and into the 80s over the lower deserts.
Could see a bit of sleet and freezing rain through Thursday morning. Previous discussion: Upper northwest flow will continue to drive the overall pattern across the CWA for today with a broad trough to the east of the region. A warm front will push through the region on Thursday, though most places will remain dry with the passage.
309 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Widespread rain with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will continue tonight, gradually exiting to the east late tonight through Thursday morning, as a deep upper trough moves east over the southern Plains. Consensus from available guidance supports widespread 1-3 inches, with isolated 3-4+ inch amounts, highest generally along/south of the Highway 54/400 corridor.
124 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Upper-level low pressure system continues to spin over the southern high plains this afternoon. Forecast guidance indicates that this upper-level low pressure will translate eastward this evening and overnight, resulting in decreasing upper-level cloud cover over Colorado. The remaining forecast challenge was determining whether or not any low-stratus will develop in the higher-elevation basins including Gunnison and Craig. In addition, a fair amount of snow will have melted by Thursday especially in the lower valleys, which should assist in afternoon high temperature recovery. Forecast guidance again indicates the potential for low stratus on Thursday night, and low clouds have been added to this timeframe in the higher elevation valleys once again.
Hurricane Zeta, located just south of the Louisiana coastline will be steered by this ridging as it makes landfall over SE Louisiana later this evening.
Deep ridging and a drier lower tropospheric airmass have squelched the rainy stretch which has plagued the Keys for nearly two weeks. Meanwhile, in the wake of Zeta, the potent mid-upper level cyclone over north Texas will pivot through the southeastern United States.
Generally near and north of a line from Whitewater through Glasgow through Sidney, some sleet and freezing rain may be possible, but light snow is more likely over Daniels and Sheridan Counties - less than half an inch.
Thursday, high pressure will begin to settle across the area with dry conditions and warmer temperatures, though we will still remain below seasonal norms.
138 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2020 A warming trend will continue into the weekend as high pressure aloft influences the area. Rex block pattern will influence afternoon highs through this weekend, with the ridge portion trending our afternoon highs several degrees above average.
Otherwise, slow warming trend expected during the middle to latter part of the work week as upper ridge begins to build back over the central plains from the west.
In addition, a 1022mb high was located over Tennessee valley with the associated ridge axis to northeast Texas. Upper air analysis revealed a trough axis from just east Hudson to Mid- Atlantic states. Upper level trough is expected to push to the Eastern Seaboard over the weekend.
Satellite pictures continue to show a limited amount of moisture and instability under the ridge over Colorado.
The one thing that both the operational solutions and ensembles agree on, is that it appears the monsoonal ridge over the west will break down and be replaced by troughing, likely ending the traditional monsoonal pattern.
620 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 An upper level trough will move across the state on Saturday.
316 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 An upper level trough will move across the state on Saturday.
205 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 An upper level trough will gradually begin to move out the region tonight into Friday. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected for the weekend. Slightly warmer temperatures around 50 degrees will be present along and south of the Ohio river Friday night. High pressure will remain in place across the region through the weekend.
320 AM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017 The central plains will remain under the influence an amplified ridge centered over the Rockies.
1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017 VFR conditions will prevail for this valid TAF period as high pressure remains in control. Have dropped low temperatures for Friday morning given this morning's readings in some of the lower drainage areas.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s in most spots.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Satellite and radar images continue to show a band of convection offshore the extreme northeast Mexican coast extending northward into the offshore waters of the lower Texas coast early this morning. Low to mid level easterly winds across the northwest Gulf of Mexico between a 500mb ridge across Texas and Hurricane Katia across the southwest Gulf of Mexico will continue to bring a surge of higher precipitable water values westward into northeast Mexico and the lower Rio Grande valley today.
A couple of hot days ahead as a high amplitude upper ridge builds into Montana. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the higher terrain this afternoon, as monsoon moisture tries to work in from Utah and Nevada. as the upper ridge breaks down a bit and allows weak energy to move into the west.
Large upper level trof over the Great Lakes region and into the eastern Ohio river valley will shift east into New England and into the mid Atlantic States by dawn Saturday. This front will pass thru dry with sw winds shifting eastward and bringing in a bit cooler air by Saturday.
310 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Cool high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley will remain nearly stationary today as a second high moves southeast out of Canada into the Great Lakes Region. Missouri and Illinois will be on the western periphery of these two systems and clockwise flow around the highs will bring us light southerly flow today and tonight. The south wind combined with plenty of sunshine today will bring warmer temperatures to the region today. Expect highs to be between 5 and 10 degrees warmer in the upper 70s to mid 80s, which is right around seasonal normals. Tranquil weather continues tonight under the influence of low level ridging. The warmer temperatures this afternoon and continuing light southerly flow tonight will translate into warmer low temperatures tonight.
Large High pressure over the Tennessee River Valley will continue to provide mainly dry and cool weather to Central Indiana the next several days. This will result in classic early fall weather with mild mostly sunny days and cooler.
358 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017 High pressure will continue the north to northwest flow over the Panhandles for the majority of the forecast period.
on Saturday with sprawling high pressure in place.
Low to mid level moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico will move inland across northeast Mexico and the lower Rio Grande valley the rest of tonight into early Fri morning. /issued 253 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center places a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico from northern Florida to the offshore waters of Tamaulipas in Mexico. This will result in increasing cloudiness during this time period with isolated showers over the Lower Texas coastal waters and immediate three coastal counties tonight, and then along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor on Friday. The passage of the aforementioned cold front and increasing cloudiness are expected to hold temperatures at near normal values through the entire short term forecast period.
High pressure over Kentucky today will weaken, but a Canadian high will build into the Great Lakes and keep our skies mostly clear through the short term.
410 AM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Upper low spins over the Great Lakes, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS. Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected through the end of the workweek, as the upper ridge shifts over the central states.
Periodic thick high clouds will spread across the region this week despite high pressure locked in place. Somewhat flat ridging was still amplifying over the SW Conus this morning with H5 heights eventually peaking around 576dm later today.
558 AM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Clearing skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon across the region in the wake of yesterdays strong low pressure system. While this low is currently across the Great Lakes region and the pressure gradient has relaxed significantly across the local area. these relatively lighter winds along with ample sunshine and warmer temperatures should make for a nicer day across the region. these warmer temperatures and somewhat gusty winds could also result in elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across portions of north central Kansas this afternoon. with overnight lows dipping into the lower to mid teens. The warm advection will continue into Thursday night with warmer temperatures again.
1055 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 Update Snow showers, locally heavy at times, can be expected the next couple days as slow moving low pressure continues to impact the area. Upper low related convective snow showers, heavy at times, should continue to develop through the morning commute as the upper trough axis is still to our west and becomes negatively tilt as it pivots through the area. Plus, with the upper low center still remaining overhead tonight then sinking only slowly southeast on Thursday, additional bands/areas of convective snow showers are expected to develop even outside of lake effect. Latest guidance has another such area of snow showers pivoting around the upper low tonight and dropping south-southwest from Lake Huron and northeast lower Michigan into the Mt Pleasant and Clare areas.
652 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 Aviation Snow showers, locally heavy at times, can be expected the next couple days as slow moving low pressure continues to impact the area. Upper low related convective snow showers, heavy at times, should continue to develop through the morning commute as the upper trough axis is still to our west and becomes negatively tilt as it pivots through the area. Plus, with the upper low center still remaining overhead tonight then sinking only slowly southeast on Thursday, additional bands/areas of convective snow showers are expected to develop even outside of lake effect. Latest guidance has another such area of snow showers pivoting around the upper low tonight and dropping south-southwest from Lake Huron and northeast lower Michigan into the Mt Pleasant and Clare areas.
A cold front over South Florida will approach the Florida Keys this afternoon. Middle of the road chance POPs should suffice this afternoon ahead of the aforementioned approaching cold front.
The broad area of high pressure aloft across the western states will generate a warming trend across Utah through the end of the week.
At the surface, NW winds prevail with a weak TROF of low pressure sliding thru, helping to squeeze out additional flurries across our region. The weak surface TROF over our region currently will quickly exit this morning, and should end the flurries, but for the most part, the clouds will persist. The very nature of the system will make it hard to evaluate what it will be capable of with respect to snow showers until we get closer, and it is possible that some isolated dustings of snow will be possible once again, mainly on grassy surfaces, as surface temps will be above freezing.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the region today for continued dry weather.
Northwest winds continue across the forecast area, diminishing with time as the upper trof continues to slowly move eastward. RH values drop into the lower 20 percents out in the southwestern counties, but wind speeds stay low enough to hold fire danger in the very high category for that area.
high pressure will build out west with a slight break down tonight. Even warmer conditions on Fri as heights/temp rise ahead of next upper wave dropping south into the nrn Rockies, and while winds will begin to increase slightly, most locations will stay below critical fire weather thresholds through the day. Wave and associated cold front drop south through the region on Sat, bringing sct snow showers to the mountains, but only some sprinkles/flurries to lower elevations behind the front late Sat. Unfortunately, 00z ECMWF keeps most moisture and precip mainly south of CO, as upper level jet energy stays well south over nrn Mexico, while 00z/06z GFS is a little more optimistic that precip will reach at least the San Juans and La Garitas Mon/Tue due to some weak energy sinking south through the ridge.
The models were picking up on the meso high over the park, but not so much the low. Low level downslope flow increases Thursday and thus, temperatures should be a little warmer. Ridging moves in tonight and gets flattened by energy streaming through the northern Rockies Thursday and Thursday night.
Temps will be a bit cooler in northwest Montana and higher valleys of southwest Montana.
Not anticipating any issues arising from this as surface temperatures are above freezing and will only drop to freezing for an hour or two just before sunrise along the Plateau. Temperatures will be much cooler than they were yesterday due to the passage of the cold front last night. Most areas will top out in the low 40s, with the higher elevations struggling to get out of the 30s. The upper trough will remain in place over the Great Lakes region over the next couple of days keeping cooler northwest flow in place and bringing another small chance of flurries to our neighbors to the north and east.
High pressure is centered over eastern MT and the western Dakotas early this morning, with a large low pressure at 500mb rotating across the Upper Great Lakes. An additional 500mb low over central Canada is helping push a trough over the eastern Dakotas, and is partially responsible for the reflectivity we've been seeing on the radar.
Upper level low over the Great Lakes region with moisture spreading back westward on the north side of the upper low toward lake of the woods at 09z.
/issued 345 AM CST Wed Mar 7 2018/ Late night sfc analysis shows a secondary cold front basically running along the I-20 corridor across nrn LA, otherwise high pressure centered from the Canadian Rockies through the nrn/cntl Plains to the Red River Valley was in control of our weather with a slightly elevated nrly flow continuing to push in a much cooler airmass. With a nrly low-level flow ahead of approaching high pressure and a persistent nwrly flow aloft, dry weather looks to remain in place for the next couple of days. This cool spell we're under will only be re-enforced by the weak boundary progged to push through later this morning, with highs today expected to top out only in the lower 60s. slightly warmer elsewhere.
Upper level trough swings through the region today bringing increasing clouds to the area. It will be cooler today across the region with highs mainly in the 20s.