Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK THUS FAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105.
332 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA USHERS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER. OTHERWISE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE TIMING OF STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DRY SLOT IN THE LOWEST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND THUS. COASTAL TEMPS WOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER IF SEA SURFACE TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO NORMAL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROF WILL SET UP FROM OFF THE NORCAL COAST INTO CANADA. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE GOING INTO SEPTEMBER BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO OUR ENTIRE REGION AS A LONGWAVE TROF IS POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
334 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEHIND IT. A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
311 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
307 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE. THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WERE BUMPED DOWNWARD A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW-MID 80S EAST.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE KMSL TERMINAL AND IS JUST PASSING THROUGH THE KHSV TERMINAL AS OF 17Z. IN ADDITION TO THE LOWERED CEILINGS.
1255 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 TODAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHERE THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS THE LEE TROUGH ON THE HIGH PLAINS. FRIDAY A TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NEB. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OTHER FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE TROUGH. THEN EYES FOCUS ON THE COLD FRONT.
1231 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY. THIS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL HELP ENSURE CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER TODAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
335 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 STORM CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREAD BACK NORTH IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S BUT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOW 70S IN EASTERN ONTARIO REACHING NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
255 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. THE SURFACE TROF WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND (REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH).
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED INTO FRIDAY BUT EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
304 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM NEAR LAWRENCE TO JACKSON COUNTIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. SCATTERED SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA WERE ALSO FORMING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. AND EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO FALL TO THE LOW-MID 60S BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
234 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 An absolutely beautiful day is underway across the region this afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 70s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. High pressure currently centered over northern Arkansas will move east into the Ohio Valley tonight, but not before bringing us another night of below normal temperatures. Light southeast winds overnight will keep readings just a bit warmer compared to this morning, but even then, temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s can be expected by daybreak Friday.
351 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
559 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM NEAR LAWRENCE TO JACKSON COUNTIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WERE FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. SCATTERED SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA WERE ALSO FORMING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. AND EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO FALL TO THE LOW-MID 60S BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA - AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND HEATING WILL HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. THE HIGH MOISTURE FAVORED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE SLOWER TIMING AND WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS AND MOIST AIR MASS.
324 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BRINGING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AT EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK. THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS COVERS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND CONSIDERABLY MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
151 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
300 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIT NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
313 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 A cooler than normal pattern continues for tonight into early Friday. Channeled vorticity moving across the Central/Northern Rockies at this time will amplify on the east side of the Rockies later tonight into early Friday, sharpening and phasing a trough across the eastern Plains/western Mississippi Valley Region.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO REACH PRIMARILY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
OFFERING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES TO FALL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH LEAVING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
419 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER S/C TX WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CHALLENGE AND ATTENTION TURNS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
150 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COLD FRONT EXITS TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
THE 00Z GFS INDICATED THAT A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MERGE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VICINITY OF BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND.
500 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2015 A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOK OUT OF SYNC THIS EVENING AND THINKING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW IN TERMS OF DEEP FORCING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH SO WITH TIME BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC AS A WARMER THURSDAY IS FORECAST WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF RETURN FLOW. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
UPPER FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE WESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF MOVING INTO BC WILL DEEPEN AND PUSH INTO THE PAC NW ON FRI. AND COOLER TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU LATE FRI AFTN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK UP SAT NIGHT.
200 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF OHIO. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INCREASING SOME CLOUDS OVER IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
348 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. COOLER. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
453 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
311 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80. DEEP LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH TO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG E-NE INTO THE OH VALLEY/UPR GRTLKS IN ITS WAKE.
229 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2015 A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOK OUT OF SYNC THIS EVENING AND THINKING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW IN TERMS OF DEEP FORCING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH SO WITH TIME BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND.
111 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
159 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS REACHING OUR EASTERN ZONES AND EXITING AS OF THIS HOUR. WHICH HAS US A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM UP TO AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY AND 80S ON THE DIVIDES. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE ACROSS THE MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT RIDGES ON THE PLAINS. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
449 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AMID THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
335 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. COLD FRONT WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY IS GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HEADING TOWARDS THE DAYTIME HOURS, COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SLOWLY MOVES EAST AS IT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO START LIFTING AROUND 14Z AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PICK UP WITH GUSTS AT KAMA REACHING 25KTS. LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO SEE IF MODELS INDICATE MORE OR LESS LIKELIHOOD OF THE LOWER CEILINGS. FOR NOW HAVE 5000 FT CEILINGS AS THE LOWEST. A LEESIDE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AROUND EXTRM ERN NM OR OUR FAR WRN ZONES. ALONG WITH THE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SERN CO ACTING AS FOCUSING FEATURES.
Can't rule out a few thunderstorms across KJCT and KSOA later this afternoon as the warm front returns north. The low clouds will break up late this morning and VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period. /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The cold front has moved south of our area this morning. For today, looks like cooler temperatures will be the main weather story.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION APEPARS TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH FO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND S/E MIDLANDS. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE SLOWER TIMING AND WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS AND MOIST AIR MASS.
231 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY CONTINUING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
/ISSUED 1022 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE TX AND THE LOWER TWO TIERS OF PARISHES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TROF EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NW GULF COAST. ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE CNTL CONUS TROF LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACRS LA AND ERN TX. THE UPR TROF WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY FRIDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING BUILDING IN FM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUSHING THE UPR RIDGE WEST.
243 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA.
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
107 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN YESTERDAY WILL BE MOVING TO JAMES BAY IN CANADA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CAUSING THE SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO END THIS MORNING AS CLEARING GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY.
415 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COLD FRONT EXITS TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT WERE OVER THE REGION. THE WEATHER REGIME WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THEY WERE OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A SERIES OF RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
347 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
340 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SAT AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING IS NOTED ALOFT WHILE 850-700MB THERMAL RIDGE/CAP MAY ALSO INHIBIT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS FCST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY 7PM SAT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MT. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHEAST WY. WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROF. SOUTHERLY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT 09Z SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LA GRANGE TO PLEASANTON TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE. DEEPER CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
WHILE WE ARE IN A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH COULD BRING SOME SMALL POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
923 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
647 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SITUATED DOWN ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. WILL KEEP WITH THE THEME OF THE PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000 FT ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR MOST AREAS. THE MAIN REASON THE FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE ELEVATED ON TUE WILL BE DUE TO COOLER TEMPS RESULTING IN HIGHER RH'S.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BRING DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD ON THU AND FRI AS ANOTHER STORM DIGS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.
605 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AND COOL THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ON TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THERE COULD RESULT IN FREEZING FOG CAUSING SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING LATE TONIGHT. THUS NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED GIVEN SHORT DURATION AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ENDS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH LOWS IN THE 20S.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW RESIDES SOUTH OF KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR COOLER. AFTER THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MORNING LOWS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTH BUT STAY IN THE 40S TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS LATER TUESDAY. THEN HEAD INTO NRN TX AS A CLOSED LOW TUE AFTERNOON.
THE CAP WILL ERODE LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GULF APPROACHES. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SEAWARD AND PRESSURES START TO LOWER IN THE GULF.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. BUT PRIMARILY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR GARRETT COUNTY WHERE COLD ENTRENCHMENT IS MORE LIKELY. CURRENT WORDING IS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. BUT MORE OF A DRIZZLE SITUATION IS ENVISIONED GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION LVLS AS DEPICTED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. STRONG LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN OVR EXTREME NERN ZONES AND GARRETT COUNTY UNTIL THE SELY UPSLOPE EASES OR MODIFICATION OF THE SOURCE OCCURS.
303 AM PST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. INCLUDING AREAS E OF THE WRN PA/MD RIDGES. BUT PRIMARILY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR GARRETT COUNTY WHERE COLD ENTRENCHMENT IS MORE LIKELY. CURRENT WORDING IS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. BUT MORE OF A DRIZZLE SITUATION IS ENVISIONED GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION LVLS AS DEPICTED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. STRONG LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN OVR EXTREME NERN ZONES AND GARRETT COUNTY UNTIL THE SELY UPSLOPE EASES OR MODIFICATION OF THE SOURCE OCCURS.
A ridge of high pressure will become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the remainder of the week.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS DIPPING BELOW 80.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CNTL FL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY. WITH RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA EXPECTING WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING UPPER 70S MOST INLAND AREAS. AS SLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
300 AM PST MON FEB 22 2016 IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.