Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
143 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Weak high pressure builds in today with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. A high degree of residual boundary layer moisture and continued deformation forcing on the backside of low pressure will keep chances for iso-sct showers in the forecast into the late afternoon and early evening across mainly our nw OH zones. There remains a signal for patchy fog/low stratus development otherwise into our IN/MI zones later tonight as weak low level ridge edges in from the west. An upper level ridge will build northeast over the the Great Lakes region Friday night through Saturday night. eventually mixing northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by later Saturday-Saturday night.
and Saturday High pressure remained situated across the forecast area early this morning. Lingering high pressure and dry easterly flow will likely hold precipitation off longer than previously thought, so have trended slower with pops through Saturday. Given the slower cloud/pop trends, have gone a bit cooler for low temperatures tonight, and warmer for high temperatures on Saturday.
248 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Cold front currently bisects the state SW to NE, having cleared RKS and BYG, and just now approaching CPR. On Saturday, the trough axis will be over Wyoming and another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, can be expected.
Highs will mainly range in the 70s both days with cooler readings along the immediate Lake Huron shoreline where northeast flow will pull modified air from over the cool lake waters onshore.
Recent regional objective analysis indicate a ridge of strong surface based instability across the central and southern plains.
For today, VFR conditions with surface ridging producing light winds, generally less than 10kts.
Deep layer ridging will build back in to end the week and will prevail through the weekend.
Activity this morning will be most sustained across the northwest closer to the upper level low. Surface heating will not be tremendous given cloud cover, however, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s supports around 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE across the James River Valley. That said, cannot rule out some funnel clouds especially across the northwest given the presence of the deep upper level low. Otherwise, a windy Saturday is expected for most of western and central North Dakota south of the departing upper level low from the short term.
expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front. A seasonably cool start to the extended periods is expected across the local area behind a cold front this weekend.
Today and tonight Cold front currently bisects the state SW to NE, having cleared RKS and BYG, and just now approaching CPR.
as bulk shear along the tstm area is 25 kts or so and instability limited to 1000-1500 j/kg as sfc dew pts Upper level low pressure system over MT will move into eastern SASK this evening.
Upper trough axis is now to our east with ridging building in from the west. Northwest flow and subsidence east of the ridge axis is resulting in a mostly clear sky, drier air, and lots of sunshine across the region. Becoming a warm front, it will move northeast tonight across the forecast area with SW flow increasing bringing warmer, more moist air. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 90 73 / 10 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 69 87 70 / 10 40 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 87 72 / 10 30 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 63 82 67 / 10 40 60 50.
The mid-level ridge will build a bit further north across the area today with slight height rises. Models hint at some subtle impulses embedded in the WNW flow above the ridge. Will see if any convective activity is able to ride over the ridge and penetrate southward to north of I-4/generally north of MCO. Low level ridging remains situated over the southern peninsula. Low-level ridge axis will remain across the southern peninsula through the period.
/issued 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019/ The upper pattern has subtropical ridge reaching from the Gulf up across the center of the country with an upper low located over MT. A trough from this low extends south to Mexico. This trough will displace the ridge a little today as it moves east and more so on Saturday.
Wrap around moisture from a low pressure center located over northeast Montana, continues to support precipitation throughout our area. Higher elevations generally experience 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation, with the highest peaks receiving about 6 to 12 inches of fresh snow.
Surface ridging will keep winds generally 10kts or less.
WS of 30-35 kts are possible for KGUY towards the end of the TAF period as a cold front begins to work its way through towards the end of the TAF period.
401 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Upper level low pressure system over MT will move into eastern SASK this evening.
A large upper low continues to circulate around Montana and central Idaho. The main upper low, and widespread steady precip, will shift eastward this evening.
Wrap around moisture from a low pressure center located over eastern Montana, continues to support precipitation throughout our area. Higher elevations generally experience 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation, with the highest peaks receiving about 6 to 12 inches of fresh snow.
1048 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 High pressure and dry conditions will be short lived today.
A late season cold front will usher in cooler air across the region dropping temperatures several degrees below normal through the weekend. Winds have slowly been decreasing early this morning as a late season cold front moves south through southern Nevada. This cold front will usher in some unseasonably cool late June temperatures with readings this afternoon generally 5-7 degrees below normal. Another shot of cooler air will arrive Saturday dropping afternoon highs an additional 3-5 degrees possibly giving Las Vegas a record for the coolest high temperature on the date, which is 91 set in 1976.
Meanwhile, an advancing cold front in northeast NE could also bring a small chance of severe storms near the NE/SD border, but that threat appears to diminish by about 9 pm. For Saturday, a severe weather threat continues in southeast NE and southwest IA, as a reinforcing surge of low pressure moves along the a stalled frontal boundary.
Expect near normal daytime temperatures today, followed by moderating temperatures this weekend as a low pressure system moves north of the area.
Upper level low pressure system over MT will move into eastern SASK this evening.
Typically with these systems, they gain strength overnight, with aid from the low-level jet stream. Temperatures will remain cooler today, as rainfall and cloud coverage will inhibit sunshine from increasing ground temps. As the weak upper level ridge shifts eastward Saturday, this will open up the door for a large-scale Low pressure system in Canada to begin driving the weather pattern again. This will hold the secondary Low is in the southern Plains for the weekend, lifting warmer Gulf air to the region, and more moisture.
522 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania over the upcoming weekend.
522 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 An upper low over Montana will lift north into Canada tonight into Saturday. Rain wrapping around the low will remain over the region through most of today with the slow northward movement of the system. As the low winds up across the east, will see strengthening west winds across Fort Peck Lake. Lake wind advisory is in effect until Saturday morning, but will likely need to be extended into Saturday evening as the impact of the low lifting into Canada will keep strong winds over the region.
This drier air along with upper level ridging building in from the southeast should keep rain chances out of the forecast for most of the area for the remainder of the day. A deep layered westerly wind flow should support some hot temperatures across inland areas where readings in the mid to upper 90s will be possible along with heat indices in the 100-106 degree range, with slightly cooler readings along the immediate coast due to the onshore flow. High pressure across the southern peninsula and will maintain west winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with seas of 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
516 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A strong upper low continues to spin over the northern Rockies region, with a 100 kt jet moving over the northern plains. Energy from the low is creating a broad area of showers and thunderstorms across SD and NE. Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the CWA this morning, as the low pressure system shifts northeastward and a slot of drier air works in behind the cool/occluded front. Highs today will range from the upper 50s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, to the lower 70s across south central SD.
/issued 322 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019/ Deep layer ridging will dominate over south Florida.
717 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania over the upcoming weekend.
High Pressure ridge remains south of the region with low pressure trof remaining north of the waters along the SE US coastline.
Cooler and drier weather will continue overnight with building high pressure. Upper ridging will be the dominant feature through the period and maintain dry conditions.
A closed upper level low pressure system over the northern Rockies will continue to produce a cool northerly flow into the region with some showers over the eastern portion of the forecast area mainly this afternoon and evening. The Low will begin to move off to the east overnight but still expect some showers through the evening and coo overnight low temperatures.
These areas have a Flood Watch out for them so they will be monitored with the local contacts GAH PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper low over Montana will lift north into Canada tonight into Saturday. Rain wrapping around the low will remain over the region through most of today with the slow northward movement of the system. As the low winds up across the east, will see strengthening west winds across Fort Peck Lake. Lake wind advisory is in effect until Saturday morning, but will likely need to be extended into Saturday evening as the impact of the low lifting into Canada will keep strong winds over the region.
159 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Water vapor imagery shows the upper low sitting across northeast Montana at this time. A second wave is rounding the backside of the low, crossing the Idaho area. A few thunderstorms are possible across Tripp County in the next couple hours, ahead of a cold front crossing the area. The upper low will drift north of the Canadian border as a trough axis crosses the region.
Underneath high pressure ridging, dry conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon and into tonight, with only slight chances along the Rio Grande Plains as some convection building over the high terrain in Mexico may cross over into that area. Moisture increases in the mid levels as the ridging moves east, leaving Saturday just slightly cooler than today which may be enough to stay out of heat advisory level.
Few light showers will be possible tomorrow across Southeast Texas as upper ridge begins to shift east with the approach of the trof from the west.
243 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend. This high pressure system will bring low humidity levels and plenty of sunshine to the Keystone state this weekend.
237 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 236 PM CDT High pressure across the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada will attempt to stave off low pressure and a warm front along with a convective complex across the Middle Plains. Further south A 30-50KT 850mb jet will help pump in continued warmer and moist conditions through the afternoon, leading to some TSRA clipping our southern/ SW half of the CWA.
Medium A ridge of high pressure across the western Lakes will gradually shift east.
The cold front is currently located across southeastern Utah. One item of note: temperatures will be fairly cool tonight across the higher valleys of Utah. Those who have planted vulnerable warm season plants across these areas may need to consider covering them and/or bringing the plants inside as temperatures will approach freezing in some of the colder spots.
1102 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Deep ridging persists across the Florida Keys. However, when dewpoints climb into the upper 70s (normally mid 70s), combined with highs in the lower to mid 90s, afternoon heat indices will reach 105-113 degrees. The only fly in the ointment has been the lower dewpoints this morning. The dog days of summer are here, and we look forward to the next cold front in late October or early November.
118 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Weak high pressure builds in today with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. High pressure to provide a dry day with sunshine through mid afternoon. Mid level ridging will try to build into the area over the weekend but will likely be short lived as the same pattern repeats itself.
Main upper trough is overhead this morning but a reinforcing short wave trough can be seen on satellite approaching from eastern Oregon. Gradual warming will take place next several days after the main trough exits east Saturday. Mid-week looks sunny and warm under a broad, flat upper ridge.
433 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 High pressure will ridge into the area from central Ontario into Saturday night.
119 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A low pressure system over the western states will maintain cool and mostly cloudy weather and strong and gusty winds in the mountains and deserts this afternoon and evening. This weekend the low pressure system will weaken and move east. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Our deep and muscular marine layer continues to generate convective stratocumulus clouds across the coastal basin today as a low pressure trough moves through the western states. As the trough moves through the West, high pressure slowly rebuilds this weekend, but some offshore flow develops quickly Saturday.
346 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A deep layer ridge of high pressure will remain in place over South Florida and it will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the weekend. Many areas will remain dry tonight with low temperatures ranging from the lower 70s across the northwestern interior sections to near 80 across the east coast. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon will range from the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas to the upper 90s across the interior sections. Heat index values will be even higher as they will range from the lower 100s across the east coast to near 110 across portions of the interior.
1125 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A strong upper low continues to spin over the northern Rockies region, with a 100 kt jet moving over the northern plains. Energy from the low is creating a broad area of showers and thunderstorms across SD and NE. Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the CWA this morning, as the low pressure system shifts northeastward and a slot of drier air works in behind the cool/occluded front. Highs today will range from the upper 50s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, to the lower 70s across south central SD.
Chance for showers/t-storms later tonight will diminish as the surface front/trough dissipates as it moves into Minnesota Saturday will see drier airmass spread thru central ND into DVL basin.
919 AM PDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A low pressure system over the western states will maintain cool and mostly cloudy weather and strong and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts this afternoon and evening. This weekend the low pressure system will weaken and move east. A low pressure trough amplifying over the West has brought this to pass. As the trough moves through the West, high pressure slowly rebuilds this weekend, but some offshore flow develops quickly Saturday.
Cooler and drier weather will continue the remainder of the day and overnight with building high pressure. Upper ridging will be the dominant feature through the period and maintain dry conditions.
158 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 High pressure and dry conditions will be short lived today.
Less coverage of storms today due to drier air aloft and mid-upper ridge building in from the west.
This will produce mainly clear skies with occasional thin cirrus from convection passing along warm front to the south, light easterly flow and low humidity.
414 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 High pressure will dominate the area this weekend with seasonal temperatures and quiet weather.
Models are indicating weak CAPE for this afternoon over the higher terrain near the Canadian border. There will be a blanket of stratocumulus cover with moisture wrapping in around a low pressure system in northern Montana. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible but will be short-lived and likely confined to the higher terrain.
A cold front will push south across the TAF sites tonight and early Saturday morning bringing north winds at 15 to 25 knots. WS of 30-35 kts are possible for KGUY towards the end of the TAF period as a cold front begins to work its way through towards the end of the TAF period.
238 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure currently is bottled up over the Desert Southwest with a strong cold core trough north of it from Montana to the Pacific Northwest. A closed low has nestled itself up inside this trough over eastern and central Montana with the center of circulation over Valley and Phillips county as of 230PM. Another closed low sets over the Gulf of Alaska. This afternoon through Saturday: As of 230 PM the closed low has retrograded back into Phillips county with a large dry slot covering the eastern half of the CWA.
Additionally, the heat is also a concern and will continue to be at least through tomorrow as an upper-level ridge builds over the region through the weekend. However, with a building ridge at the 700mb level, confidence on potential thunderstorms this evening is not great.
Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
18Z SGF special sounding shows quite a cap in place and models suggest these warmer temperatures aloft remain in place across the area through the overnight hours. It will be a warm and muggy night tonight with lows just in the lower to even mid 70s. For now will trends towards the drier and warmer scenario with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values in the mid and upper 90s and perhaps approaching 100. For Saturday night southwest upper flow establishes itself over the area with an approaching trough.
246 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Low cloud cover will continue to increase for most locations this afternoon as daytime heating causes mixing of the high dew point air near the surface. On the synoptic scale, a deep trough is situated over the northern Rockies, with a weak ridge over the Plains. For the weekend, the trough over the Rockies will move east over the Plains, bringing additional rounds of rain. Currently Saturday evening looks to be the timeframe with the highest chances for additional showers and thunderstorms.
139 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A forecast update is in place for warmer temperatures across swrn Nebraska this afternoon and less rain chance. Daytime heating combined with a cold front in these areas will provide enough instability to support thunderstorm development. A well- worked over environment and a much cooler airmass will deprive any lingering storms of sufficient instability to reach severe criteria.
Low pressure is moving east from the northern Rockies and high pressure over the eastern Pacific will nudge across the region through the weekend providing warm, dry weather.
539 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Water vapor imagery shows the upper low sitting across northeast Montana at this time. A second wave is rounding the backside of the low, crossing the Idaho area. A few thunderstorms are possible across Tripp County in the next couple hours, ahead of a cold front crossing the area. The upper low will drift north of the Canadian border as a trough axis crosses the region.
847 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 The region will be between high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the northeast Tonight.
705 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Water vapor imagery showing a low amplitude ridge over the eastern CONUS. Upstream a broad deeply amplified trough prevailed over the western half of the country with a strong embedded circulation centered over eastern MT. Attendant cold front is progged to to move across the Dakotas/NE and induce convection along the boundary.
652 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 High pressure anchored over the region will sustain this stretch of dry and stable conditions through the first half of the weekend. This will produce mainly clear skies with occasional thin cirrus from convection passing along warm front to the south, light easterly flow and low humidity.
637 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend. This high pressure system will bring low humidity levels and plenty of sunshine to the Keystone state this weekend.
721 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend. This high pressure system will bring low humidity levels and plenty of sunshine to the Keystone state this weekend.
735 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 High pressure will dominate the area this weekend with seasonal temperatures and quiet weather.
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Low cloud cover will continue to increase for most locations this afternoon as daytime heating causes mixing of the high dew point air near the surface. On the synoptic scale, a deep trough is situated over the northern Rockies, with a weak ridge over the Plains. For the weekend, the trough over the Rockies will move east over the Plains, bringing additional rounds of rain. Currently Saturday evening looks to be the timeframe with the highest chances for additional showers and thunderstorms.
411 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Water vapor imagery showing a low amplitude ridge over the eastern CONUS. Upstream a broad deeply amplified trough prevailed over the western half of the country with a strong embedded circulation centered over eastern MT. Attendant cold front is progged to to move across the Dakotas/NE and induce convection along the boundary.
Out ahead, a warm front and consequent swly moisture advection continue to move into the TN Valley at this time. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 73 89 / 80 50 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 70 87 / 80 50 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 70 87 / 80 50 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 82 65 83 / 80 50 60 50.
952 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend. This high pressure system will bring low humidity levels and plenty of sunshine to the Keystone state this weekend.
A broad upper level trough spinning over the northern Rockies has stalled the boundary, stretching northeast from the Moab area, mainly along and north of the I-70 corridor.
/issued 346 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019/ A deep layer ridge of high pressure will remain in place over South Florida and it will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the weekend. Many areas will remain dry tonight with low temperatures ranging from the lower 70s across the northwestern interior sections to near 80 across the east coast. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon will range from the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas to the upper 90s across the interior sections. Heat index values will be even higher as they will range from the lower 100s across the east coast to near 110 across portions of the interior.