Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 AM MDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion Large scale upper level trough from the Eastern Pacific continues to progress inland into the Western US this weekend. Cooling aloft with the incoming trough will allow the airmass to sufficiently destabilize this afternoon for a few thunderstorms with axis of best instability looking to set up roughly from Helena east to Lewistown late this afternoon into early this evening within an area of convergent low-mid level flow.
A weak cold front extended from northwest South Dakota through the northwestern half of Wyoming. An upper trough will move into the Great Basin as an upper ridge axis builds east into the Great Lakes region and Mississippi Valley. Rain showers will return on Sunday afternoon as a cold front drops southward out of South Dakota.
Today: Approaching upper trough will result in a lee trough/dryline flirting with western border of forecast area today. Slightly stronger winds tonight will likely keep minimums on warmer side of guidance.
639 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Fire weather concerns remain today as the high clouds currently overhead shift to the east. The main concerns fire wise will be the low rh values falling to 20-25 percent near and west of the MO River 18Z-00Z, and the strongest winds near and just behind the passing cold front. The timing of the strongest winds doesn't overlap with the lowest humidity values. So while grassland fire danger index values will rise into the high to very high levels, winds will not be as strong and widespread as yesterday. Dry weather will prevail until closer to 00Z Sunday, as the 500mb ridge that had been overhead slides to the Great Lakes Region.
Cigs may begin to lower towards the end of the cycle, more than likely after 06Z, as the low-level moisture continues to increase. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than previous mornings given more turbulent mixing, cloud cover, and a warmer start point. Winds on Sunday look a bit stronger with the pressure gradient continuing to tighten with high pressure pulling farther to the east-northeast and with deepening low pressure east of the Rockies. Temperatures across the west jump back into the low-90s for highs but with the increase in low-level moisture fire weather concerns are minimal.
A cold upper level trough will advance east across the Great Basin this weekend.
A disturbance moving through the broader scale upper level trough over the western U.
1126 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A trough of low pressure crosses the region today as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
Highs today will be warmer than the previous day due to an upper level ridge over the region, strengthening southerly surface winds, and only some thin, high level cloudiness.
650 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Today: Approaching upper trough will result in a lee trough/dryline flirting with western border of forecast area today. Slightly stronger winds tonight will likely keep minimums on warmer side of guidance.
Southerly flow continues today keeping low temperatures this morning relatively warm in the low 50s. Temperatures this afternoon will rise up even warmer than yesterday ranging from the low 80s in central Kansas where warm air advection remains prominent to the upper 70s in eastern Kansas. With an upper level ridge moving across the central US today, dry conditions will remain for today and tonight.
High pressure at the surface will provide light to calm winds today, which is good news for fire weather interests since minimum RH values will only be in the 20s this afternoon.
Hoenisch /ISSUED 530 AM MDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ Large scale upper level trough from the Eastern Pacific continues to progress inland into the Western US this weekend. Cooling aloft with the incoming trough will allow the airmass to sufficiently destabilize this afternoon for a few thunderstorms with axis of best instability looking to set up roughly from Helena east to Lewistown late this afternoon into early this evening within an area of convergent low-mid level flow.
1258 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Frost/freeze headlines have been cleared as temps are above freezing everywhere and into the 40s across a good chunk of the area. Kentucky Mesonet shows a few of the typical cool spots around and just below freezing at this hour, however most other spots are in the mid to upper 30s. In addition, there is a corridor of temps still in the lower 40s roughly along and just east of I-65. Temps should still be able to find their way solidly into the 30s to the point where patchy/areas of frost are possible, and with some areas at and just below freezing will keep the headlines as is. Overnight lows will be milder tonight, but still in the low to mid 40s in most spots.
Highs today expected to reach the lower 70s. High pressure will build over the region today and tonight with lighter winds. Still a fire sensitive day with the low RH nearing 20-25% inland.
Aloft North America early this morning - A trough was offshore the British Columbia/WA/OR coast. a ridge reached from Mexico to Hudson Bay. and a second trough stretched from Labrador southward/ off the eastern seaboard/ to the coastal waters of FL and the Bahamas. At the surface - High pressure centered on the central Gulf coast sprawled north across the Great Lakes and east to FL. The trough-ridge-trough aloft slide east. with the ridge reaching from the Gulf of Mexico to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sun afternoon as the eastern trough eases to east of the Bahamas. The center moving by to the north will slowly shift the low level flow from northerly to northeasterly. This lowers the rip current risk and will let the beach hazard statement expire at 5 AM.
1039 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A convoluted and nodular mid-upper level trough is diving southeast through the southeastern United States and the Florida Peninsula.
Mostly clear skies and the return of onshore winds will warm temperatures into the lower 80s this afternoon. /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ With just a little bit of high clouds around, early morning temperatures range from the lower 50s inland to the upper 60s/around 70 at the coast.
Light and variable wind flow will occur as the ridge of high pressure drifts east over the area. Short term guidance is in agreement that a mid-level ridge -- forecast to translate across the southern Plains today -- will build into the region overnight. The 500-mb ridge will remain anchored across our region on Sunday.
715 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Low pressure will slowly shift east today through tonight as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will crest over the region on Sunday before shifting offshore. A warm front will pass north of the region Sunday night.
A weak surface boundary was move over the northern counties while a weak trough was located along the coast at 12Z. The high res models showed the potential for better coverage than shown on the forecast.
1050 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure centered over the region will keep winds generally light and somewhat variable. High pressure area centered over the CWA will slowly move east through tonight. Temps tonight will decrease again with the coolest temps, upper 50s, being in eastern IL, closer to the high pressure area and lighter winds. Slight warmer temps, around 60 will be seen in western IL.
/issued 309 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/ Canadian high pressure over the Mid South this morning will move quickly east today. A stalled frontal boundary over central Mississippi into southern Arkansas this morning will begin to lift back north as a warm front. The warm front will lift north through the region on Tuesday with increasing humidity and moisture. Temperatures should be warmer than today behind the warm front.
757 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure will dominate through most of the week. A weak cold front will approach late in the week. High pressure over the Ohio river valley will slowly build east today. High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday. Northern extent of southern upper ridging gradually builds into the region through mid week, flattening a bit late week into weekend. At the surface, sprawling high pressure builds in from the west through mid week, and then gradually centers itself south and east late week.
Upper low moving across southern BC into Alberta this morning. Surface wind shift to the west expected today with the colder air moving into the region tonight with the upper trof. The trof will also push the smoke to the east overnight. Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a large ridge running form California through Utah and Wyoming and terminating over the high plains of the Dakotas and Montana with the hottest air over South Dakota. To the northwest a large trough is setting over Washington southern British Columbia and southern Alberta. Ridge will topple by mid day today with the trough to the far west moving into western Montana by the afternoon. A cold front is anticipated at the surface during the afternoon as well leading to cooling temperatures overnight.
1014 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A cold front will cross the area this morning then move east into the Maritimes this afternoon.
944 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will provide cooler and drier conditions through the first half of the week. Exiting upper-level trough is generating a few isolated showers just to our northwest this morning. An axis of slightly higher low-level moisture extends southeast running along the back edge of the trough through the Pittsburgh metro area and into the ridges. With high pressure dominating the central United States, northwesterly flow is expected across the region. Not only will this bring cooler temperatures, it will bring drier air. As high pressure eases east, winds will shift from the northwest to the southwest, bringing a return to warmer air across the region.
847 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Upper level troughing over the desert southwest will approach the southern and central high plains by this evening.
1126 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure will dominate through most of the week. A weak cold front will approach late in the week. High pressure over the Ohio river valley will slowly build east today. High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday. Northern extent of southern upper ridging gradually builds into the region through mid week, flattening a bit late week into weekend. At the surface, sprawling high pressure builds in from the west through mid week, and then gradually centers itself south and east late week.
952 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will build eastward from the Ohio Valley today.
This will lead to a notable increase in srly flow today with breezy and warmer conditions across the area. Moisture will continue to increase on Tue as additional disturbances carve out a more significant srn stream trough across the desert SW. A 70+ kt upr jet will develop across the NW Panhandles as the trough deepens. H85-H7 theta-e ridge (remnants of the tropical moisture causing flooding in S TX) and position of the of jet and modest diffluence aloft will favor the SE half of the CWA for ISOLD to SCT TSTMS Tue aftn and evening (perhaps higher pops just south).
837 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Weak high pressure remains across the region with morning TBW sounding continue to indicate rather light and variable flow up into the mid levels. 6 inches and most of this moisture is in the lowest levels with rather dry air aloft.
715 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 Cold front shifting east of Vermont this morning will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air across the North Country today.
Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected with afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s. /issued 309 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/ Canadian high pressure over the Mid South this morning will move quickly east today. A stalled frontal boundary over central Mississippi into southern Arkansas this morning will begin to lift back north as a warm front. The warm front will lift north through the region on Tuesday with increasing humidity and moisture. Temperatures should be warmer than today behind the warm front.
1022 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Aviation section updated High pressure centered over southern Illinois will move east across the Ohio valley today and east to the middle atlantic states Tuesday.
Activity may persist overnight as a weak upper low crosses the area. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will develop initially over the higher terrain.
Isolated to scattered -SHRA and -TSRA are expected to develop this afternoon courtesy of a lingering cold frontal boundary.
618 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Big picture across the Nation this morning shows a rather flat pattern in place at the moment with a modest ridge traversing the middle of the continent. Of interest to the forecast for later this week is the potent trough moving east across British Columbia early this morning. As this trough moves east through the Canadian Plains it will induce a bit of stormy activity as moisture returns from the Gulf start making their way back into Kansas and Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary that will develop across the Northern High Plains later today.
Models have been good agreement with scattered showers and storms over the higher terrain with only a few weak ones moving off. The upper flow pattern remains quite light, but a weakly organized upper level trough is still expected to push northeast into the forecast area late this afternoon through tonight. That being said, the mountains stand the highest threat of seeing convective development during the afternoon hours where moisture arrives first. On the plains, any threat would likely hold off until very late in the afternoon or evening as the low levels are quite dry and anything developing will be high based and outflow dominated.
The best moisture convergence will be generally along and south of I-20 so the highest rain chances will keep the same trend and be south. Overnight, a few models have a short wave trough riding over the state along and north of I-20.
944 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Dry high pressure will build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic through mid-week. In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridge extends across the GOM and Deep South. Expect continued clear skies with high temperatures similar to today, and lows Tue night a few degrees warmer than tonight. -Vincent High pressure and relatively dry airmass will continue to provide fair weather for the mid-to-latter portion of the work week.
617 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure area centered over the CWA will slowly move east through tonight. Temps tonight will decrease again with the coolest temps, upper 50s, being in eastern IL, closer to the high pressure area and lighter winds. Slight warmer temps, around 60 will be seen in western IL.
1134 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Aviation A large high pressure system will provide Southwest Michigan two days with abundant sunshine, pleasant temperatures and lower humidities.
Mostly clear skies along with breezy northwest winds can be expected today behind a dry cold front which moved through the area last night. Afternoon high temperature will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, but only a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Dry cold front now east of the area. Moderate post- frontal west winds surface and aloft under broad upper trough today and tonight. A strong upper level low will move east through southwest Canada today. It has already pushed a dry cold front through our area, and temperatures will be noticeably cooler today. Winds will also be stronger in the higher terrain of southeast Oregon.
1039 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 Cold front shifting east of Vermont this morning will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air across the North Country today.
703 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Aviation A large high pressure system will provide Southwest Michigan two days with abundant sunshine, pleasant temperatures and lower humidities.
610 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Ridge axis extends across northern Illinois southwest through the STL Metro area and into far northwest Arkansas. The ridge will continue moving east today which will bring the wind around to the south-southeast by mid to late morning. The southerly flow and high August sun angle will allow a solid warm up; however the cool start to the morning will likely only allow highs in the low and mid 80s even with a 30 degree warm up.
/issued 414 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/ (Today and Tonight) With an upper level high over the southeastern CONUS and weak south- southwest flow aloft over our area, the arrival of a weak embedded disturbance will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Lows tonight should be in the lower 70s with mostly cloudy skies and humid conditions.
920 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Dry high pressure will build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic through mid-week. In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridge extends across the GOM and Deep South. Expect continued clear skies with high temperatures similar to today, and lows Tue night a few degrees warmer than tonight. -Vincent High pressure and relatively dry airmass will continue to provide fair weather for the mid-to-latter portion of the work week.
Surface pressure will gradually tighten today as the lee side trough deepens under southwest flow aloft. Ahead of that trough low level moisture will be in place when the lift increases. The isentropic lift does not appear that strong, but the low level jet does try to nose over that area towards sunrise.
951 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure centered over the lower Ohio River Valley early this morning will build to the east. The center of the high is forecast to pass over our region on Tuesday before moving off the coast and drifting out to sea.
12Z surface analysis shows a decaying cold front sagging just north of our forecast area with a ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. 90 inch PW, which is on the higher end of our normal range this time of year (within the 75th percentile). The consensus of our local hi-res guidance is that the highest activity today will be seen across north Florida and in southeast Alabama, though there is at least a 40% chance for storms across all of southwest Georgia as well. Highs today will peak in the low to mid 90s, but with a very moist air mass in place, it will feel more like 100-105.
As the 500 mb ridging from the Gulf of Mexico builds west over the Texas coastline over the next 24 hours expect the drier and more stable airmass to maintain VFR conditions for most of the upcoming TAF period. The 500 mb ridging in place over the Gulf of Mex should build west today and Tuesday which will dry out and stabilize the atms over the region reducing the conv chcs. As the 500 mb ridging builds over the region temps should warm up a bit through Tuesday as the 1000-500 mb thicknesses increase and the diurnal heating builds.
605 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 244 AM CDT Today through tonight: Early this morning skies remain mostly clear, as high pressure centered over Missouri begins to push east. Temperatures will continue to radiate prior to daybreak into the lower 50s and could see a few sites in the west/northwest forecast area fall into the upper 40s. But with the southerly flow persistent through the night, lows tonight will be several degrees warmer in the upper 50s to around 60.
932 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday.
633 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Mid 50s to low 60s this morning, 10 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday morning, will help max temps reach into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Fropa begins to push into the FA on Tuesday afternoon with another warm day ahead of the front as airmass remains unchanged, so will go with another round of low 90s in the south and near 90 up the central valley into NW MN as the cold front is progged to push into the DVL BSN a bit earlier than previous model solns.
1216 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Drier and cooler airmass settles in through the middle part of this week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week. Ridge continues to build in from the west. and along the higher terrain in the eastern mountains. Benign weather will continue through the short term as upper ridging transitions across the northeast. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday after another relatively cool night climbing back into the lower 80s on Tuesday.
1220 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will be in control through much of this week with dry and generally seasonable weather.
Onshore flow will weaken today, and upper level high pressure will start to build into western Washington.
will stall north of the area, with ridge across south Florida remaining weak. This drier air combined with ridge aloft will struggle to generate much precip across the area today, except along the Treasure Coast where greater moisture and sea/lake breeze interactions may still allow isolated/scattered shower and storm development. Below normal storm coverage will also lead to hot temperatures again today with highs in the low 90s along the coast where sea breeze develops earlier in the afternoon and mid 90s elsewhere.
739 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will be in control through much of this week with dry and generally seasonable weather.
1219 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A cold front will cross the area this morning then move east into the Maritimes this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through today and most of tonight as high pressure builds over the area and provides a dry air mass.
1038 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front today, bringing cooler and drier air to the area for most of the week. Another weak cold front will approach the Western Carolinas from the northwest toward the end of the week.
High pressure over the southern Rockies will shift to the east ahead of the next upper level trough settling into the Pacific Northwest. The higher moisture content in the mid levels remains farther south across Arizona, which will increase overnight into southern Utah bringing better chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday.
Upper level trough over West Coast with a somewhat moist and slightly unstable southwest flow aloft over Montana.
with VFR conditions expected trough the rest of the afternoon and evening hrs. The dry conditions will continue through the short term period as upper level high pressure starts building over the region. Highs this afternoon should be a couple deg warmer than seen on Sat. though with the ridge continuing to expand over the region. should see temps a deg or two warmer.
This Morning and afternoon Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough move east across Iowa. with the higher chances along the far southern forecast area.
Temperatures will be hot, once again, as afternoon highs will climb in the low to mid 90s area-wide. Today should be TPA's 20th straight day at 90 degrees or warmer with Fort Myers at 26 in a row.
with a high pressure ridge quickly building into the region. allowing for good heating and warmer high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across most of the Valley by late afternoon. a warmer and drier day for most places this Sunday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 72 93 73 / 20 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 71 90 71 / 10 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 92 71 91 71 / 10 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 65 87 68 / 10 10 30 30.
1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Gulf moisture has been a little slower to return this morning with PWat values a little lower than most models predicted beneath a broad ridge that will consolidate over Arkansas tomorrow.
Current temperatures are running 2-10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Went towards the lower side of guidance highs as latest models may be underestimating the amount of low level moisture which would limit heating a bit.
Highs this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday on the Oregon side and around 10 degrees warmer on the Idaho side as the upper-level flow continues to back to more southerly and heights/thicknesses rise.