Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Widespread and significant rain could produce localized flooding tonight and Monday morning with the passage of a cold front. Further upstream, showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing over portions of nw Ohio and northern Indiana near and just ahead of the potent cold front. Later this evening, however, the eastward push of the mid-level trough will deliver any ongoing convection to our forecast area. As the surface front and mid-level trough approach this evening, deep layer shear will run parallel to the boundary allowing for training thunderstorms.
Broad trough extended from the Pacific Northwest to MAN with an upper level jet along the northern states or on the southern periphery of upper trough. An upper level trough over MAN will move into eastern Canada on Mon. A cold front was located over eastern MN. Broad trough will take on a split flow regime with a short wave trough dropping southeast out of the Northwest Territories on Mon and another trough moving in from the Pacific Northwest on Mon. The midweek long wave pattern shows a persistent H5 trof across the central and eastern CONUS with a western H5 ridge axis pinned along the Northern Rockies.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough over Nevada with ridging ahead of it over Utah. Would expected a decrease in snow late tonight and Monday as this ridge tracks across Colorado. Will continue with the Winter Storm Warning for tonight though it may end up being canceled early if the ridging dries things out. Along the Front Range and across the eastern plains, scattered rain showers should linger into the evening hours and then decrease/end overnight with the ridging moving over Colorado. The coolest temperatures will be found along the northern border where clouds will linger longer and a cold front arrives first. This cold front should enter northern Colorado mid afternoon and then sink south through the late afternoon and evening.
207 PM MST Sun Nov 5 2017 The region will remain situated between strong high pressure centered over Mexico and strong low pressure centered near the Pacific Northwest.
250 PM MST Sun Nov 5 2017 Latest upper level analysis has an upper trough over the western CONUS creating west southwest flow across the Northern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Dakotas.
Otw, a cold front will be approaching the area late tonight.
341 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 A cold front will continue to trek eastward across the area, bringing heavy rain and potential flooding to the eastern forecast area. Otherwise, the cold front will continue to dive quickly to the east- southeast. Otherwise, the cold front will continue to dive quickly to the east- southeast.
343 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Low stratus from this morning continues to push south and away from the local area as the responsible cold front is now entering the southern plains.
cold high pressure nosing into the area this morning is forecast to slowly move east by noon then east of the area by days end. By mid to late afternoon the low clouds should dissipate enough to produce a partly sunny sky. For tonight forecast concerns are on extent of low clouds and possibility of fog/freezing fog. will likely have to contend with morning low clouds and fog/freezing fog per NAM boundary layer humidity. For Monday night a stronger cold front moves through with low temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30. Will be continuing to mention light freezing rain and/or snow for much of the area after midnight.
212 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 20Z surface analysis shows a cold front has moved across the forecast area and into central WI.
1050 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Surface cold front making nice progresss through the northeast third to one half of the fcst area this morning. The cold front will move winds to the north by 15Z for KGUY and by 05Z for KDHT. /Issued 423 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ Backdoor cold front expected to move through northeast half of forecast area today.
1228 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 An elongated area of high pressure will become centered to our west today.
1030 AM MST Sun Nov 5 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure axis across eastern Montana into western South Dakota.
1159 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Widespread MVFR stratus, gusty SW winds, and cold front passage are main impacts this cycle. KHRO with VFR skies already and tentatively introduced BKN VFR cigs for KHOT/KADF/KLIT 22-00Z before MVFR or lower cigs return ahead of the cold front. Even with this high moisture. A cold front will be dropping south into the state late this afternoon. Temps across the CWA will be in more contrast from north to south for Mon as NRLY flow behind the front will keep temps much cooler.
/issued 1038 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ Cooler/colder air will continue to push southward behind a front this afternoon. /issued 426 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ A cold front will bring gusty north winds as it passes north to south through Oklahoma today. /issued 249 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ The cold front advancing toward Oklahoma has increased its speed from previous model runs and is expected to push south the strong maximum temperature gradient today. Temperatures in the lower 60s F.
A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning with pre-frontal rain moving into NW WI. High pressure then builds as drier and colder air moves in. Other than the cold temps that will struggle to climb above freezing, not much in terms of weather. As the trough moves eastward overnight the potential for light snow will shift eastward into Wisconsin. Cooler air will flow into the Northland overnight and temperatures will dip into the single digits over the northwest to the teens in northwest Wisconsin, 5 to 15 degrees below normal.
1200 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Update Low pressure will track south of Lower Michigan today with the chance for strong thunderstorms across far southern Lower Michigan this afternoon.
1038 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Cooler/colder air will continue to push southward behind a front this afternoon. /issued 426 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ A cold front will bring gusty north winds as it passes north to south through Oklahoma today. /issued 249 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ The cold front advancing toward Oklahoma has increased its speed from previous model runs and is expected to push south the strong maximum temperature gradient today. Temperatures in the lower 60s F.
132 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 132 PM CST High pressure will continue to build into the region as storm system moves east. The expected BKN-OVC conditions should prevent temps from falling to far tonight and will also keep temps a bit cooler tomorrow as cloudiness is likely to linger. By latein the week, medium range models have been trending toward a more amplified solution with a progress, but still deep trough digging into the Great Lakes region.
/ISSUED 515 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ High cloud cover moving atop the upper ridge centered over southern Texas/northern Mexico. Upper ridging and plenty of sun to the surface should again warm temperatures up into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon.
Temperatures today will struggle to get out of the lower 50s with a brisk 15-20mph northerly wind making it feel even cooler. Temperatures tonight will drop down into the lower to mid 30s with freezing conditions over the northern counties in Missouri. Temperatures will not recover much Monday with the cooler airmass in place, as highs will only top out in the mid 40s.
Models are still on track for a backdoor cold front to move through the area late this evening into Monday. This will leave all areas, except the far NE portions of the CWA, warmer than normal for one more day.
As of 10 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 70s at most locations. /issued 713 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ As the cold front pushes south into the region this evening it will interact with an increasingly unstable airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s. A broad upper ridge covers the southern U. ahead an approaching cold front now moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Expect breezy conditions ahead of the cold front with gusts to 25 mph across the Delta which will help mix out morning low clouds and produce some afternoon sun. Record highs for this date are in the lower 80s at Memphis, Jackson and Tupelo so more sun could result in some potential records.
/28/ Prior discussion below: Early morning surface analysis had a 1019mb ridge axis extending across our southeast zones from the northeast while a 1003mb low was centered over southern Kansas. Models agree that the cold front will stall tonight well north of our CWA but storms associated with the cold front may drift south into our northern zones prior to sunrise Monday. Despite the morning stratus, a breezy south wind and some afternoon insolation will be enough to help temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s.
344 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 An upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico extends well across the northern Gulf coast. Another effect from that ridge will be above normal temperatures.
252 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 An area of high pressure will cross the region tonight through early Monday morning. On the back side of the high, southerly flow should develop fairly quickly, especially over western SD.
Upper level high pressure will continue through Monday then may see more of a zonal/WSW flow late Monday night. Pretty much going on the warm side of guidance for temperatures, especially for the overnight lows as the low level jet could bring just enough of mixing (and some low clouds inland areas) will help to keep temperatures above seasonal values for early November.
213 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 A pressure ridge will be in the forecast area through Monday.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a flattened ridge pushing up through Mexico with westerly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the northern Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south to southwest. The upper level ridge will shift to the east during this period.
At the sfc, a Denver Cyclone will develop thru the day. Most of the hi res data has this low staying just south of Denver with sely low lvl flow across most of the plains. Around Denver, aftn highs could range fm the lower 40s across nrn areas while srn areas get close to 60.
Meanwhile, a Canadian cold front currently stalled across northwest Montana will shift southwestward over night.
A weak boundary is setting up over central Illinois this morning, with south/southwesterly winds ushering warmer temperatures and plenty of moisture into the southeastern portions of the state. Monday reverts back out of the warmer weather pattern and starts a period of highs in the 40s/50s and overnight lows in the 30s/upper 20s.
230 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 A warm southerly flow tonight ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The cold front will move across the region Monday.
429 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 A pressure ridge will be in the forecast area through Monday.
The broad Canada upper-level trough extends a wave southwest into the Pac-NW this evening, producing a moderate winter storm and frontal boundary that crosses the Divide tonight. Monday, the east-west oriented upper trough axis moves through Montana and pushes the moisture to the south, ending snow chances by mid-day over the forecast area.
What it's going to take is the approach of a cold front to break the inversion. Low and behold, I have one for you! A cold front, draped from Arklatex northeastward into the Ohio Valley, has started some fireworks to our north this afternoon. The NAM/GFS/Euro are fairly consistent and in agreement about the timing of this low, but there is some question about how much we can destabilize after the morning activity/cloud cover, as well as whether the low will actually be as strong as models are depicting it, given the zonal flow aloft.
335 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure hanging over the sern CONUS, providing the area with a continued onshore low-level flow. while a frontal boundary is noted extending from low pressure near Hudson Bay through the Midwest/Mid-South to low pressure over the srn Plains.
High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s through mid-week and low's in the mid 60s to the 70s along the east coast metro areas. weak short wave over the central plains will make its way east weakening the ridge across the Gulf by the end of the week. This weak trough will bring a surface disturbance over the region allowing for a better chance of showers by the end of the week. However, the Miami Beach police did not report any coastal flooding during the high tide this morning which was at 3.
strong cold front has pushed deep into the southern Plains with strong high pressure building southward into the Dakotas. BUFKIT is indicating the potential for light freezing drizzle over portions of northeast NE after midnight due to weakening feeder- seeder mechanism.
251 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Strong cold front will move across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania tonight. High pressure will build over the region from the northwest and north most of the week. Cold front located from eastern Michigan to central Indiana will continue to move eastward through the night. The showers will end from west to east early Monday as high pressure builds into the area from the northern plains. It will be cooler on Monday with highs within a couple degrees of 50.
336 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Low pressure will ripple along a cold front as they push southeast across the region tonight. Clouds and a few lingering showers are expected on Monday along with cooler temperatures.
105 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 An area of low pressure and associated cold front will approach the area today. The cold front will move through this evening into tonight. Cooler air will begin to filter into the region with the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will struggle to rise with high temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s across most locations. A wave of low pressure will travel along the old frontal boundary that will extend across southern Kentucky.
307 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Cold front has pushed well into OK at this time, with lots of post frontal low clouds, and copious amounts of low level moisture. Expect to see cooler than normal temps continue for the beginning of the week, with very little chance in the low cloud cover dissipating anytime soon, even as a ridge of high pressure moves across the northern plains. Ketcham The cooler than normal temp trend will continue for most of the mid week. Ketcham MVFR cigs are expected to diminish from north to south as deeper drier air filters south in the wake of a cold front. There is some concern that low stratus may redevelop as winds become more easterly across the high plains.
We will also be monitoring convective trends over the lower OH valley dropping southeast into the instability/moisture axis across AR through middle TN.
However, as we go past 06Z Monday, the low cigs stratus deck may impact KDHT/KAMA for a few hours in MVFR category, especially after 09Z Monday before low clouds erode later in the morning. /Issued 1050 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/ Surface cold front making nice progresss through the northeast third to one half of the fcst area this morning.
Models are having big problems with the low level moisture and thermal field. Latest high resolution guidance continues to support the freezing fog over the western half to two thirds of the forecast through tomorrow morning and made slight adjustments to the going forecast.
Could also see a record or tied high minimum in San Angelo if the low temperature falls to or stays above 64. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler with southwest winds bringing in slightly drier air and less extensive cloud cover.
Widespread and significant rain could produce localized flooding tonight and Monday morning with the passage of a cold front. Some clearing exist across southern portions of the forecast area where temperatures have jumped into the low 70s. Upstream, showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing over portions of nw Ohio and Indiana near and just ahead of the potent cold front. Later this evening, however, the eastward push of the mid-level trough will deliver any ongoing convection to our forecast area. As the surface front and mid-level trough approach this evening, deep layer shear will run parallel to the boundary allowing for training thunderstorms. The cold front will bisect the area Monday with showers ongoing south of Pittsburgh. The mid-level trough axis will shift east of the area and the overall strength of the system will be waning.
The mountains have continued to pick up some impressive snowfall totals according to SNOTEL reports with as much as 25 inches over the higher elevations of the aptly named Snowy Range. Could see rain mix with snow or even some freezing rain for a time late tonight with the best chance for freezing precip being area from Alliance to Chadron. Amounts should be light so think impacts will be minimal as temperatures will be marginal at or just below freezing.
Moderate to breezy and gusty south southeast winds prevail under sunny skies as mid level ridging over central Mexico along with Gulf high pressure continue to influence local aviation conditions. Low level winds will become moderate to breezy and gusty from the south southeast again Monday, supported by the interaction between high pressure over the Gulf and lower pressure to the west over north central Mexico, with only a few wisps of high clouds possible in the west to east upper level flow. High temperatures will generally range from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s inland. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s area wide.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Mid level ridging over central Mexico along with Gulf high pressure will continue to influence local weather conditions in the short term. Low level winds will become moderate to breezy and gusty from the south southeast again Monday, supported by the interaction between high pressure over the Gulf and lower pressure to the west over north central Mexico and west Texas, with only a few wisps of high clouds possible in the west to east upper level flow. High temperatures on Monday will be about 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the upper 80s near the coast to the lower to mid 90s inland.
An upper level trough across the pacific northwest will gradually dig east-southeast into the Great Basin by late Monday afternoon. The low-levels look dry, so if any snow flakes make it to the surface they would be only flurries across portions of north central KS after 6Z. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 30s across the northern and western counties of the CWA with mid 30s across east central KS.
Strong winds throughout the atmospheric column (including 40 knots at 925mb) and more than adequate instability will produce potentially severe thunderstorms through this time period as a cold front progresses SE across the FA. I-64 region of IL/IN possibly SW toward northern part of SEMO), particularly if storms remain more scattered ahead of the southeastward moving surface cold front. There will be a tornado threat given the magnitude of the low-level wind shear and low LCLs even in the absence of backing of the low level winds. Temps will fall into the lower to mid 50s by late tonight except possibly the southern Pennyrile where the cold air convection will reach last.
A cold front currently stretches from near Chicago to the south to near St. Closer to home, temperatures and dewpoints are elevated for early November with southwesterly flow in the low levels continuing the supply of warm/moist advection ahead of the approaching cold front. With this trough passing well to the north, not forecasting any precipitation this afternoon or evening. The cold front will advance to the southeast throughout the short-term forecast period. The front will take on more of a southwest to northeast orientation as the trough to the north advances quicker with the support of the upper levels. The cold front will continue to advance across the forecast area on Monday.
225 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 132 PM CST High pressure will continue to build into the region as storm system moves east. The expected BKN-OVC conditions should prevent temps from falling to far tonight and will also keep temps a bit cooler tomorrow as cloudiness is likely to linger. By late in the week, medium range models have been trending toward a more amplified solution with a progress, but still deep trough digging into the Great Lakes region.
1138 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 A SSW to E-NE oriented band of showers well behind the surface cold front stretched across our northeast MO into west central IL counties late this morning. Elsewhere, extensive cloud cover remained across the forecast area with gradually increasing northwest winds with the incoming advection of cooler and drier air. Meanwhile, a strong cold front extended from northern MN to northern KS with temperatures in the 20s in the Dakotas. Today: Widespread dense fog should continue to about sunrise followed by improving visibilities, as a cold front begins pushing into the cwa. Tonight: Canadian high pressure will be nosing into MN bringing clearing skies to the dvn cwa this evening, with clear skies overnight.
329 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Strong cold front will move across northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania tonight. High pressure will build over the region from the northwest and north most of the week. Cold front located from eastern Michigan to central Indiana will continue to move eastward through the night. The showers will end from west to east early Monday as high pressure builds into the area from the northern plains. It will be cooler on Monday with highs within a couple degrees of 50.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front exiting the region over Lower Michigan, while high pressure extends southeast across the northern Plains. Cloud cover remains widespread from North Dakota into western Wisconsin despite high pressure building east. Some of the higher resolution models indicate clearing taking place from southwest to northeast across northern WI. High pressure over the northern Plains will be building southeast into the state.
1136 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 An elongated area of high pressure will become centered to our west today.
Once the column saturates, ice initiation is likely with temps aloft cooler than -10C aloft. Since the highest PoP occur at night, sfc temps will keep falling into the 20s, so expect -SN as the main ptype. Southern Sheridan and Cherry counties continue to be pegged for the highest amounts (up to one inch).
254 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Cold front at 2 pm was located roughly from the north side of St. The current front will make it into the Tennessee Valley, before a low pressure rides along it.
353 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 A warm front will remain south of the region tonight. A cold front will then approach on Monday and pass through Monday evening.
A weak boundary is setting up over central Illinois this morning, with south/southwesterly winds ushering warmer temperatures and plenty of moisture into the southeastern portions of the state. Monday reverts back out of the warmer weather pattern and starts a period of highs in the 40s/50s and overnight lows in the 30s/upper 20s. Line of thunderstorms has formed along a cold front from near KSPI-KCMI, and the main impact over the next couple hours will be at KCMI.
247 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 A pressure ridge will be in the forecast area through Monday.
Updated forecast will account for the hourly trends as best we can using some of the higher-res guidance which better depicts the low level temp gradient. A cold front will sweep through northeast Oklahoma later this morning and will clear southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this afternoon. Surface warm front has pushed through most of the forecast area as of 3 AM Sunday morning. Next cold front is located across central Kansas and northern Missouri, extending from Kansas City to Salina to Dodge City. At the same time, areas south of the boundary will likely heat up into the low to mid 80s.