Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weakening low pressure system moving inland into northern and central California today will bring a return of onshore flow and spread cooler high temperatures inland.
338 AM MST Wed Dec 18 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds.
/Issued 228 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019/ Areas of dense fog and freezing fog persist this morning across parts of far northeast OK into northwest AR. Otherwise expect a sunny day, with afternoon temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday.
359 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 High pressure building in across the region will keep the weather relatively quiet for today. South of I-20 may see highs in the lower 50s later this afternoon. Winds expected to get lighter as the high builds in and the ridge axis sets up over Central Mississippi later this evening.
541 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Short term concerns center around ongoing fog/freezing fog. Where fog is dense, freezing fog is being observed with light icing on elevated surfaces and untreated roadways expected.
541 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 VFR conditions will dominate the entire forecast period as high pressure maintains clear skies throughout. /Today through Thursday/ High pressure at the surface will keep skies mostly clear and winds light and variable. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s which will be just below normal. Another cold night is in store as a weak upper level ridge moves overhead tonight which will maintain clear skies while calming the surface winds. Low temperatures tonight will dip below freezing tonight area-wide with many locations seeing the upper 20s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions roughly the same for Thursday with a slight warmup of high temperatures to near normal values.
Kanofsky Another cold night is expected tonight with lows ranging from the teens in SW IL to the low/mid 20s in central and SE MO. The colder temperatures are due to the combination of the snow-covered ground and the lingering influences of a high pressure ridge extending into the eastern CWA. Although it is not currently in the forecast, one item to watch will be the fog potential for tomorrow night given the light winds and additional moisture added to the lowest levels of the atmosphere by the melting snow.
Today Through Thursday Night To begin the period, upper level troughing was located over the OH valley meanwhile upper ridging was situated over the Rockies. On Thursday, the upper level ridge axis should be nearly centered over AR oriented north to south. At the surface, high pressure will begin to move away from the state resulting in return flow/warm air advection commencing. Overnight low temperatures will be a tad warmer thanks in part to added cloud cover.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will move over the central High Plains today.
Dry conditions will also prevail as High pressure builds into the Midwest, allowing sunshine to return. High pressure will build throughout the region today into Thursday. Once the High passes through the region overnight, a change will arrive for the second half of this week. As High pressure slides into the Ohio Valley, and an upper level ridge builds across the central and eastern US, southwesterly airflow will return Thursday.
210 AM MST Wed Dec 18 2019 Upper ridge will be over Montana today with warm temperatures.
353 AM MST Wed Dec 18 2019 A high amplitude ridge will be moving over the state today, continuing the mostly clear skies for the first half of the day. The clear skies has allowed temperatures in the high country this morning to be very cold, with readings currently in the -15 to -25 degree range in the cold spots around the high valleys. The high country will be warming as well, however the high valleys of North and Middle Parks look to remain under an inversion, with no good wind or lift to scour it out. This along with the downsloping wind pattern in the foothills, have warmed the low temperatures in and near the foothills as well as downwind from the Palmer Divide.
954 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley to the southeast early today. High pressure will build over the area and help to entrench some of the coldest air of the season through early Thursday.
Upper level trough is breaking down the ridge over southern Idaho during the day today and will move close enough late tonight to bring snow to central Idaho, with snow developing in the Snake River plain around mid- day on Thu. Then, with little north wind behind this trough, temperatures will actually continue to warm Fri, rising to near freezing for highs on Fri. Not much in associated wind with the trough, just a little breezy conditions (10-20 mph) on the southeast side of the Snake River plain. High pressure is expected to be in place for up until Christmas Eve.
Upper ridge will build in over the Panhandles today and then move off to the east tonight and Thursday. Southern stream closed upper low will track east across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions Thursday.
650 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley to the southeast early today. High pressure will build over the area and help to entrench some of the coldest air of the season through early Thursday.
The next chance for precipitation is this weekend as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure will build into the region from the west today with the cold front well off the coast. Dry high pressure will move into and settle over the Southeastern CONUS. Both the gfs and ecmwf develop a cutoff upper low across the southern plains, then move it eastward through the weekend.
600 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Clouds have now moved over the entire forecast area and combined with south winds developing temps have warmed into the low teens below in the east after falling into the minus 20s overnight. Arctic high pressure is quickly sliding southeast with return southerly flow setting up across the area this morning. Strong warm air advection up to 700mb will continue to bring warmer air to the area with highs ranging from mid 20s in the Devils Lake basin to low teens in the MN pines this afternoon. Lows overnight expected to be in the single digits with highs on Thursday around 20 for the area as weather remains benign with upper level ridging.
Cold Canadian high pressure will quickly move across the region today with colder air in place across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. Return southerly flow will set up across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the wake of high pressure. Ridging across the Plains will result in much above normal temperatures through Christmas Day with high temperatures generally in the 40s. By next Wednesday/Christmas, 500 mb ridging will have pushed to the east of the area with a southwesterly flow aloft setting up with a deep trough across the western US. High pressure will move across the area today.
/Today through Thursday/ High pressure at the surface will keep skies mostly clear and winds light and variable. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s which will be just below normal. Another cold night is in store as a weak upper level ridge moves overhead tonight which will maintain clear skies while calming the surface winds. Low temperatures tonight will dip below freezing tonight area-wide with many locations seeing the upper 20s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions roughly the same for Thursday with a slight warmup of high temperatures to near normal values.
A weak storm system passing by today and tonight will bring high clouds to most of the region, with slight chances for snow showers in the high Sierra.
645 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 High pressure will build across NC today and tonight. A dry arctic cold front will move south across the region tonight. Cold high pressure will follow the front as it builds into NC from the north through late in the week. Another dry cold front will push even colder and drier air south into NC from the north as it passes south of the region tonight. GSO 45/23 TDF 47/20 RDU 48/24 Cold high pressure will be centered overhead Thursday and Thursday night.
Areas over the southern I-25 corridor are a bit warmer due to breezy southwest winds. upper level high pressure is forecast to transit across Colorado through this afternoon leading to dry and pleasant conditions across the state. Locations along the I-25 corridor will likely be cooler due to snow cover. The upper level ridge will shift east into the Central Plains tonight while flow aloft transitions southwest. This will likely help keep overnight lows slightly warmer with generally teens across the Plains, and a few degrees below zero over the San Luis Valley.
High pressure will drift across the state today, with high temperatures only in the 20s and mostly sunny skies. High pressure will build throughout the region today into Thursday. Once the High passes through the region overnight, a change will arrive for the second half of this week. As High pressure slides into the Ohio Valley, and an upper level ridge builds across the central and eastern US, southwesterly airflow will return Thursday.
Southerly flow continues on Thursday with even warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.
Mostly clear skies today with highs in the low to mid 50s. /issued 541 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019/ VFR conditions will dominate the entire forecast period as high pressure maintains clear skies throughout. /Today through Thursday/ High pressure at the surface will keep skies mostly clear and winds light and variable. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s which will be just below normal. Another cold night is in store as a weak upper level ridge moves overhead tonight which will maintain clear skies while calming the surface winds. Low temperatures tonight will dip below freezing tonight area-wide with many locations seeing the upper 20s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions roughly the same for Thursday with a slight warmup of high temperatures to near normal values.
The clouds were along and ahead of a low level trough dropping slowly south. At the same time, high pressure was building eastward into the area, and the overall size of the cloud band was shrinking.
Given current observations, we decided to extend the High Wind Warning for Bordeaux until 2 PM MST.
1100 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Short term concerns center around ongoing fog/freezing fog. Where fog is dense, freezing fog is being observed with light icing on elevated surfaces and untreated roadways expected.
high pressure will maintain quiet weather into the weekend. High pressure will reestablish this afternoon as low level flow veers to northwest behind the weak front. Forecast challenges are few during the period as high pressure will remain the dominant feature through the end of the work week. The high will shift east and settle across the Carolinas for late week allowing return southerly flow on the backs die of the high and into the Ohio Valley. Strong ridging aloft will spread across the area as well.
117 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Warmer above normal temperatures will prevail this period as upper level ridge builds over the central plains.
231 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 High pressure will remain over the Mid-South tonight and will begin to shift east on Thursday.
Expect the low clouds to linger into this afternoon, clearing by this evening. Cooler temperatures get advected across the region. High pressure will be just east of the region Thursday morning. Aloft, a ridge will move across us during the day, helping us to start breaking out of the below normal temperatures we'll be in today.
The few remaining late afternoon flurries across southwest Lower Michigan into north central Indiana will come to an end this evening as upstream ridge edges eastward into long axis of Lake Michigan. Clearing skies and diminishing wind to provide good longwave outgoing radiation, however northwest CWA may begin to provide some mixing with south winds upwards of 10 mph towards daybreak as ridge moves into Lower Great Lakes to Tennesee Valley.
905 AM PST Wed Dec 18 2019 A band of mid level level clouds will sweep across the region today ahead of a weak trough moving inland across central California.
221 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Upper level ridging will move into the central CONUS today with southwesterly surface flow as the next UL trough begins to approach tomorrow afternoon, we will see an increase in the surface gradient which, in turn, will allow the surface winds to increase to mildly breezy conditions through Thursday.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: High pressure building in across the region will keep the weather relatively quiet for today. South of I-20 may see highs in the lower 50s later this afternoon. Winds expected to get lighter as the high builds in and the ridge axis sets up over Central Mississippi later this evening.
Temperatures across the Valley have warmed to near freezing, and will continue to warm through the morning. High pressure will begin to move slowly off to the east away from the region today and tonight but the circulating return flow will still be cool. By Thursday a southern stream upper level low pressure area will be approaching from the Rocky Mountains.
Temperatures will hold steady in the lower to middle 20s. Secondary cold front and associated upper wave was dropping rapidly through the area early this morning.
143 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 As a warm front continues to slowly push east across central North Dakota, afternoon temperatures have risen into the upper 30s and lower 40s across much of the west and central. As an upper level ridge axis moves across the state overnight, winds will calm. Much of the high resolution guidance is showing an area of stratus taking hold along the Missouri Coteau and areas east by the early afternoon hours.
TFJ Upper ridge will be over Montana today with warm temperatures.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 26 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 24 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 23 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 20 43 24 / 0 0 0 0.
With a combination of high pressure, nearly calm winds, and clear skies in place, expectations are for temperatures to crash through the night.
Synoptically, the water vapor imagery was showing the next storm system pushing into the west coast, with ridging out ahead of it. Temperatures tonight will likely dip back below freezing into the mid to upper 20s. With plenty of sunshine expected on Thursday and low level warm advection, temperatures should rise into the 40s and 50s with the cooler temperatures in central MO where a snow cover still exists.
224 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Weak high pressure over the area today and tomorrow will give way to near to slightly above normal temperatures. While temps will be similar to today, as noted before, there could be a wind chill factor in the afternoon making it feel cooler.
222 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Modified arctic airmass over the dvn cwa with high pressure ridge bringing mostly sunny but cold day. Tonight: High pressure slips off to our east with warm air advection kicking in on the return flow. Thursday: Much warmer day with plenty of sunshine and a rather light southwest wind.
Moisture profiles still pretty meager but some hint that we work toward saturation in the lowest couple kft in SW MN, an thus will need to monitor for very light precip/drizzle. This wave will also briefly flatten our upper level ridge before it rebounds into the weekend.
High pressure was drifting east over the area, and with the snow cover, will cause another night of cold low temperatures on Thursday morning. On Thursday, southerly winds will begin to bring warmer air into the regions, causing melting of some of the snow. Through the day today, moisture channel imagery displayed the upper level ridge axis over the western states, beginning to advect slowly to the east, with continued northwest upper flow over the IL region. Surface observiations show the low level high pressure ridge drifting into IL, and the surface winds shifting gradually from northwest and west, to the south. Southerly winds will cause significant snow melt on on Thursday as the upper ridge moves into the midwest.
LES and orographic snow in the ridges will begin to taper off after midnight with increasing subsidence. Areas with the highest probability to see accumulations will be across the I-80 corridor and over the ridges. Falling temperatures combined with continued gusty winds in the higher elevations will result in subzero wind chills overnight and have issued a Wind Chill Advisory for eastern Tucker county where values are forecast to drop below -10F. Dry conditions resume Thursday under building high pressure with forecast highs around 10 degrees below normal on average.
1024 AM MST Wed Dec 18 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds.
Right now, just have some small patchy areas with potential for fog and freezing fog in the morning hours, however will have to monitor this evening and adjust as necessary.
This may allow for slightly warmer temps into Fri, with highs climbing into the lower 50s while overnight lows trend more in the upper 20s/near 30F. Forecast models are coming into better agreement regarding the upper low that is expected to impact the region over the weekend.
228 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Modified arctic airmass over the dvn cwa with high pressure ridge bringing mostly sunny but cold day. Tonight: High pressure slips off to our east with warm air advection kicking in on the return flow. Thursday: Much warmer day with plenty of sunshine and a rather light southwest wind.
Afternoon surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure centered over Wisconsin. As the high continues to slide east tonight, winds will turn southerly with warm air advection kicking in. While the overall atmospheric profile looks pretty dry still this afternoon, some guidance is hinting at enough moistening in a narrow chunk of the low levels late tonight/early Thursday morning to produce low clouds or even patchy fog. Thursday looks much warmer than today, as cold air aloft scoots east of the area allowing highs to reach the 20s and 30s. Other than the aforementioned possibility of morning clouds, there could be some partly cloudy skies/sunshine for a while Thursday under mid-level ridging before high clouds begin to fill back in. Mid-level ridge moves east of the region Thu N/Fri, pushed off by fairly strong pv-anomaly passing through the Northern Plains.
257 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 A dry arctic cold front will move south across the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will build over NC on Thursday and will remain in control into the weekend. A secondary surge of sfc pressure rises behind a dry Arctic cold front will advect even colder and drier air south into NC this evening and overnight.
The local area is on the cold side of the ridge axis under deep layer cold advection. By late evening, the ridge axis will move east of the CWA, setting up deep layer warm advection, with temperatures beginning to climb by midnight. By tomorrow morning, the center of the arctic high will settle over the Upper Ohio Valley, with winds becoming more swly as upper ridging builds across the central plains. Upper ridging will slowly build east across the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday and Thursday night, beginning a warming trend with dry conditions that is expected to extend well past the Short Term period. After lows at around midnight 12-14 F, slightly warmer in the Chicago area urban heat island, highs Thursday should rebound back into the middle 30s. Lows Thursday night should moderate as well, in the lower to middle 20s.
Lowered expected highs over the south as well, but we could still see the low 40s down there.
1254 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley to the southeast early today. High pressure will build over the area and help to entrench some of the coldest air of the season through early Thursday.
However, temperatures will rise back closer to normal today and generally be 5-15 degrees warmer than yesterday as an upper level ridge moves overhead. The ridge will shift east quickly tonight and an upper level trough/low, currently hitting the California coast, will move overhead Thursday. The trough/low will be moisture starved and will likely result in nothing but clouds as none of the 00Z operational model runs show any QPF Thursday across our area.
A few light showers will begin spreading north up the Highway 281 Corridor by this time as a compact upper low dives southeast across NM.
Louis area this afternoon with an area of low pressure near the OK/TX panhandles. The very dry airmass we have in place will keep skies clear tonight as temperatures fall into the low and mid 20s. Tomorrow, an upper level closed low is expected to move toward the Four Corners region. Thus, highs are only expected to warm into the low 40s.
Cold Canadian high pressure will quickly move across the region today with colder air in place across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. Return southerly flow will set up across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the wake of high pressure. Ridging across the Plains will result in much above normal temperatures through Christmas Day with high temperatures generally in the 40s. By next Wednesday/Christmas, 500 mb ridging will have pushed to the east of the area with a southwesterly flow aloft setting up with a deep trough across the western US.
Temperatures at 850mb are about a degree warmer than yesterday, so a few degree bump in surface temps will be expected across the area, comparatively. We'll still be hanging on to weak surface and upper-level ridging, so clear skies will be forecast today into tomorrow. Upper trough entering the northern CA coast will slide east-southeast and close off once into NM, Thursday.
314 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 Updated at 245 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 The low level clouds that have lingered for much of the day are beginning to erode over southern IN and southeastern KY. Aloft, the NW flow will begin to flatten out as an upper level ridge approaches from over the Plains. Then tomorrow, temperatures will begin to warm back up to near normals as southerly flow on the backside of the high pressure combined with plenty of sunshine push highs into the 40s. Dry conditions are expected to persist through Christmas as dry NW flow and then progressive upper ridging dominate our pattern through the end of the work week.
This will result in another night of below freezing temperatures and widespread frost as overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 20s areawide.
Overnight, the main weather concern will be plummeting temperatures as breezy north winds setup favorable cold air advection, with lows expected to approach freezing over parts of the Nature Coast and drop into the upper 30s to around 50 farther south. Breezy northwest winds winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions over the coastal waters through at least Thursday night as high pressure fills in north of Florida. Cautionary to low end advisory level winds will then hold into the weekend as an area of low pressure develops over the Gulf and lifts northeast through Florida, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Temps across the area currently range from the lower to middle 30s at this hour, with Fort Payne coming in at the coolest temp of 29F. Morning lows are on track to bottom out in the lower to middle 20s, so little/no changes were warranted with the public forecast update for this evening. While this occurs, an area of low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf coast during the weekend, then head eastward. This low when first noted a few days ago had a "tropical" look to it.
Winds have diminished and temperatures were in the lower to mid 30s across the area.