Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
801 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight into Wednesday as weak high pressure crosses the Great Lakes.
403 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A cutoff upper-level low pressure slowly meanders eastward this evening and overnight before being reabsorbed in the northern branch of the jet stream. Additional snow accumulations will generally be under and inch, with the highest totals over southwestern Minnesota. Temperatures have risen above freezing for locations west of I-29 and south of I-90, so melting snow mixed with rain only leads to minimal accumulations for this area. Temperatures warm on Wednesday, with highs about 5 degrees warmer than today (Tuesday). An area of upper level deformation provides modest frontogenetic lift over southeastern South Dakota during the afternoon and evening, and given the relatively steep lapse rates in the lower layers of the atmosphere, isolated rain/melting snow showers are possible west of I-29.
948 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight into Wednesday as weak high pressure crosses the Great Lakes.
522 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Latest analysis shows the upper low continues to shift slowly northeastward and away from the forecast area. Northwesterly surface winds have developed over much of the forecast area this afternoon due to an area of high pressure moving in from the the northwest. Highs will be about 5 degrees warmer than today.
Clouds dominate the area and will do so thru Wed AM but some drying will work south as the upper low departs Wed aftn into Wed eve as skies begin to clear. Radar and obs indicate most persistent light snow is in South Dakota south of the low, with another area of very light snow NW of the low around Cooperstown to Jamestown. An upper level low over eastern SD will continue to move northeastward. We've had easterly flow aloft with the low to the south today. Clouds will decrease tomorrow as the upper low over MN opens and makes more progress eastward. Upper ridging to the west will then move into the area, favoring dry conditions with light winds and decreasing clouds.
High pressure will bring dry weather through Wednesday.
A strong area of low pressure will rapidly move out of the four corners region tonight and into the southern plains by Wednesday afternoon. The low pressure system will continue to rapidly move eastward into the western Arkansas and the eastern OK region by Wednesday evening. This will bring a springtime cold front into the forecast area tomorrow evening. the highest risk for severe storms should remain to the north of the forecast. Low pressure system will track through southern MO tomorrow night bringing a frontal boundary through with A QLCS type line likely forming out ahead of the front.
Light fog in the far SW fcst area anticipated, could be a bit of freezing drizzle as well. Clouds dominate the area and will do so thru Wed AM but some drying will work south as the upper low departs Wed aftn into Wed eve as skies begin to clear. Radar and obs indicate most persistent light snow is in South Dakota south of the low, with another area of very light snow NW of the low around Cooperstown to Jamestown. An upper level low over eastern SD will continue to move northeastward. We've had easterly flow aloft with the low to the south today. Clouds will decrease tomorrow as the upper low over MN opens and makes more progress eastward. Upper ridging to the west will then move into the area, favoring dry conditions with light winds and decreasing clouds.
A ridge building over the Southwest will bring fair and warmer weather to northern Arizona the rest of the work week. The cold upper low responsible for the snow and rain showers across northern Arizona is shifting into New Mexico this afternoon. Broken low clouds have persisted across the high terrain for much of the day. A building ridge of high pressure Wednesday through the end of the work week will bring a return to fair and warmer weather.
618 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A cutoff upper-level low pressure slowly meanders eastward this evening and overnight before being reabsorbed in the northern branch of the jet stream. Additional snow accumulations will generally be under and inch, with the highest totals over southwestern Minnesota. Temperatures have risen above freezing for locations west of I-29 and south of I-90, so melting snow mixed with rain only leads to minimal accumulations for this area. Temperatures warm on Wednesday, with highs about 5 degrees warmer than today (Tuesday). An area of upper level deformation provides modest frontogenetic lift over southeastern South Dakota during the afternoon and evening, and given the relatively steep lapse rates in the lower layers of the atmosphere, isolated rain/melting snow showers are possible west of I-29.
Cooler temperatures are forecast on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the 60s across the Big Country to the low to mid 70s across the Interstate 10 corridor. Weak upper level ridging will take hold, with drier surface conditions.
Latest water vapor imagery depicts the location of a strong upper trough near the AZ/NM border. Very warm temperatures are observed with widespread mid to upper 70s, and dewpoint temperatures have increased into the low 50s over portions of central Oklahoma as that plume of moisture moves northwestward. The potent upper low continues east towards our CWA and is prog'd to reach the TX panhandle overnight into early Wednesday morning, as a low level jet develops across western OK/TX.
338 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Overview: An upper level low presently situated over the Desert Southwest will track eastward into the TX Panhandle tonight, then eastward across OK on Wednesday.
wouldn't be surprised if we see some some locations reach highs a good bit warmer than some guidance suggests. Mostly clear overnight as the cold front itself makes it thru.
Some convection may also redevelop this afternoon across NE OK underneath the upper level low as it passes overhead and included prob30 groups for this activity. Showers and possibly some snowflakes will also be possible across far NE OK this evening on the backside of upper low. An upper low over New Mexico will track east northeast into eastern Oklahoma by Wednesday evening, and to northwest Arkansas during the predawn hours Thursday. Additional storms may form or move into southeast Oklahoma ahead of this activity to the north of a warm front that extends from near Dallas to north of Shreveport. Depending on how convection evolves north of the warm front, and if the warm front can lift any farther north, a higher tornado threat may develop in far southeast Oklahoma later tonight.
Upper level ridging will bring drier and warmer air to the region through Thursday before the next cold front arrives. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal on Thursday, with temperatures 65-70 in the lowest valleys. Breezy conditions are expected as the cold front approaches the region on Thursday afternoon.
325 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Upper low currently over eastern South Dakota will continue to shear to the east and away from the forecast area. For tnt and Thursday it should be mostly dry as upper ridge builds into the Northern Plains. A warmer airmass will slowly advect into the region through Thursday, with daytime highs gradually inching up each day.
326 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Upper level low was spinning over east central New Mexico. This low looks like it is going to go further south than earlier model runs depicted. The low should track just south of the Texas Panhandle this morning and should move into southwest Oklahoma by afternoon. The cold pool aloft will be along the northwest edge of the upper level low and this is the area where the most snow is expected to fall. We are also going to add Armstrong and Hemphill counties to the Blizzard Warning given the further south track of the upper low. Winds will slowly decrease late this afternoon and tonight as the upper low continues to pull east of the area.
North winds will continue, but will overall be on a decreasing trend as the upper low races off to the east.
1204 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Widespread rain is expected Wednesday night through Thursday night with crossing low pressure. A building ridge of high pressure and warm advection will support dry weather and above average temperature tonight. Longwave ridging will amplify over the ern CONUS on Wednesday in response to Rocky Mtn/Plains troughing with day weather, partial clearing, and warmer temperature expected for the Upr OH Region. The low is progged to phase with a northern stream trough across the Eastern CONUS late Thursday night. Cold advection on the western side of the low could result in a brief changeover to snow for portions of the forecast area Thursday night.
1233 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 High pressure will cross the region overnight and will move well south and east of the area Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
Forecast soundings show a strong temperature inversion in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That said, there is broad deformation with the negatively tilted upper trough passing south of the area. If rates are high enough, then that would overcome the warmer ground.
Forecast soundings suggest some drying in the mid levels, which could result in a transition from light snow to patchy freezing drizzle. Wednesday and Thursday: A powerful mid/upper-level low moving into the southern Rockies this afternoon will translate through the southern Plains on Wednesday, and into the lower OH and lower MS Valleys on Thursday. The 12z models have trended south with the highest precipitation amounts with 0. Our official forecast will reflect the lower-end amounts, though we will continue to monitor for greater snow potential. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to be in the low/mid 40s with upper 40s to low 50s on Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the Northern Rockies today and Thursday. Each day will be slightly warmer than the previous, with Thursday being the warmest day of the week. Many valleys in western Montana will likely warm into the low 60s, with the lower valleys of north-central Idaho reaching the low 70s.
Visibility locally reduced below a mile and patchy slick spots especially on bridges and overpasses will be the main impacts. For this afternoon ridge builds over the area for sunny skies and warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 50s central and west to the mid 40s over SE Montana and Sheridan foothills. More sun and continued warmer for Thursday with highs in the 55 to 65 degree range, with breezy southerly winds developing for the afternoon.
High clouds will increase over the area on Wednesday, otherwise dry and slightly warmer temperatures are expected.
The trough will make its way east today, with some hints of weakening as it tracks across northern WI. Mild, sunny and generally dry weekend on tap for the area as high pressure meanders slowly across the region.
304 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Latest radar imagery shows quiet conditions returning to the region as precipitation exits to the northwest, with temperatures hovering at or just below freezing. Much like yesterday, expect patchy to dense fog to be possible through mid-morning, with mostly cloudy skies forecast to prevail throughout the day as remnants of yesterdays upper level low continue to wobble eastward. Aside from this, models also show a robust upper level low over the central CONUS progged to move eastward throughout the day, causing severe storms to be possible across the lower Mississippi Valley. Highs today will be a touch warmer than yesterday, with values forecast to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s.
314 AM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns tonight through Thursday night with crossing low pressure. The rain could taper off somewhat across portions of the area Thursday as a brief dry slot wraps around the ern side of the low. The low is expected to phase with a northern stream trough across the Eastern CONUS late Thursday night.
154 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Water vapor shows upper low shifting from eastern SD into MN, with trof extending southwest through southeastern WY. Upper ridge is building into the western CONUS. Secondary circulation within trof overhead will track across northern NEB today, and will likely result in an uptick in light snow across central SD this morning. Upper ridge will build eastward into the central CONUS by the end of the week.
The remains of the potent closed upper low from early this week still meanders over MN into eastern Dakotas while continuing to weaken and open as it crawls eastward today. As the low exits, clouds are expected to lessen from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Upper ridging currently seen in WV imagery over the Northern Rockies into Canadian High Plains will build into the Dakotas advecting a very dry air mass comprised of PW less than 0. Ensemble guidance continues to paint a warm and breezy to windy end of the week as upper ridging and tightening pressure gradient develop across the northern plains.
Situation still setting up for severe weather Wed/Wed night as a warm front lifts north, and later in the night a cold front passes.
The warm front remains across northern Arkansas, therefore, these initial storms this morning are expected to remain well elevated. However, strong wind shear and low freezing levels will be favorable for a some hail up to the size of quarters with a few of the more intense storms. This will create a 3rd round of rainfall on the north and west side of the upper low.
1049 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Latest analysis shows the upper low continues to shift slowly northeastward and away from the forecast area. Northwesterly surface winds have developed over much of the forecast area this afternoon due to an area of high pressure moving in from the the northwest. Highs will be about 5 degrees warmer than today.
255 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Precipitation has largely tapered off early this morning as the strong mid-level closed low continues to exit to our south and east. In its wake, infrared satellite imagery reveals low clouds and patchy fog remain across the higher elevations with perhaps a leftover flurry or two. On Thursday, a large ridge of high pressure will build into the Intermountain West with the ridge axis located directly over the CWA by the afternoon. In response, southwest flow will boost high temperatures several degrees warmer than today and highs will end up a few degrees above normal. On Thursday night low pressure system will begin to make landfall in the Pacific Northwest while the ridge axis pushes out over the plains.
Storms are expected to fire with the warm front, which will lift north. The warm front should push north later today, in conjunction a cold front will approach the area from the west allowing for a warm sector to be set up. This QLCS will remain in a favorable environment for tornadoes and damaging wind as the low-level jet begins to intensify, but the large hail threat will begin to decrease. Cooler and drier air will accompany Wednesday night's cold front and will be ushered in by strong west winds.
1107 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A weak area of low pressure near Cape Hatteras will slowly push out to sea tonight and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A strong 500mb low, or âbowling ballâ of sorts, will be barreling into the Southern Plains this morning, helping to push a dry cold front across the CWA later this morning and early afternoon.
Supercell currently across southern Sebastian county in western AR appears to be very near the warm front, and all modes of severe weather will continue with this storm for the next hour or 2. Cold core upper cyclone will track across northeast OK this afternoon and eventually into southern MO overnight. And finally, gusty surface winds will develop late tonight and continue overnight as the surface cyclone moves east of the region. Breezy and cool weather expected for Thursday, with a warming trend for late week and into the weekend as upper ridging builds across the central states.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 59 67 47 58 / 90 100 30 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 58 69 45 55 / 80 100 60 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 57 69 45 55 / 90 100 50 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 54 71 43 54 / 50 90 80 70 30 TN.
A weak disturbance embedded in the flow aloft is rounding the top of an upper ridge that has built over the region last night and today and has flattened it some.
Storms are expected ahead of the first front with the second one coming in with the drier and cooler air. The big weather features for tomorrow is the cold front passage, and possibilities of severe storms. The timing of the cold front and possible line of storms is late morning for east Texas, near noon in southeast Texas, early afternoon in southwest and central Louisiana, and late afternoon in south central Louisiana. The moderate onshore flow will continue for another 24 hours or so, then turn to offshore behind the cold front Wednesday night.
Tonight through Wednesday Night: A deepening upper level low visible in water vapor imagery this morning is currently sliding off the Rockies and pushing through portions of western Kansas and Oklahoma. There may be some brief dry time around mid day, but dont expect that to last too long as a deformation zone is expected to develop as the upper low sides just south of the area. While, best instability remains well south of the area Wednesday afternoon, the severe threat is non- zero, especially in the areas closest to the warm front which is expected to be draped across southern Missouri.
1146 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Overview: An upper level low presently situated over the Desert Southwest will track eastward into the TX Panhandle tonight, then eastward across OK on Wednesday. Northwest flow aloft develops over the region on Thursday between a departing system to the east and upper ridging to the west.
A ridge building over the Southwest will bring fair and warmer weather to much of northern Arizona for the remainder of this week. Fog formation off the higher terrain does not look likley at this time. Ridging aloft as soon as Thursday will bring a pronounced warming trend to the area for the remainder of this week.
An upper low over New Mexico will track east northeast into eastern Oklahoma by Wednesday evening, and to northwest Arkansas during the predawn hours Thursday. Additional storms may form or move into southeast Oklahoma ahead of this activity to the north of a warm front that extends from near Dallas to north of Shreveport. Depending on how convection evolves north of the warm front, and if the warm front can lift any farther north, a higher tornado threat may develop in far southeast Oklahoma later tonight.
Tonight through Thursday: A low pressure system is expected to undergo rapid cyclogenesis across the southern Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning before shifting eastward into the mid- Mississippi Valley. Models continue to keep the low well south of northeast Wisconsin, which will keep any significant precipitation out of northeast Wisconsin.
-- Blustery Thursday, precip lingering south -- A fair amount of disagreement among mesoscale models and global ensembles remains regarding the amount of precipitation in southern Michigan tonight from the Ohio Valley low pressure system. Winds from the northeast 20 to 30 knots with stronger gusts are looking increasingly likely, as we will be sandwiched between well- developed low pressure over the Ohio Valley and high pressure north of Lake Superior.
This could slightly enhance snowfall the higher terrain including the Snowy Range as well with localized 3 inches snowfall possible. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for patchy fog and low clouds again tonight, especially in localized areas on the northern sides of the Pine and Cheyenne Ridges.
A compact closed low over the Southwest early this afternoon is progged to continue moving eastward across the Southern Rockies this evening before emerging over the Southern Plains late tonight. A brief lull is possible during the morning hours but as the mid/upper trough moves into northeast OK, an increasing TROWAL airstream and developing deformation axis should fill in with precipitation. high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the storm system with clearing expected from west to east.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue early this morning ahead of the low, while cooler air begins to flow into northwest Oklahoma behind the low. With temperatures generally near or above freezing, the accumulation rates will be very low (high water content). Most of the northwest half or so of Oklahoma will have the high temperature for today this morning, and central/southwest Oklahoma will see an abrupt downturn in temperatures this afternoon.
327 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 An upper trough currently centered over eastern New Mexico will move east today over the Texas panhandle and into Oklahoma. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are at the base of the trough with strong west winds across the area. Winds across the area are expected to become northwesterly to northerly today as the upper trough moves to the east. High temperatures today will be cooler ranging from the 50s across portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin to the mid 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande.
Showers will decrease for all but a few central Wyoming areas tonight, as ridging builds over the area.
By mid-morning into the early afternoon, an intensifying deformation axis will swing northward roughly through Clark to Stafford counties, and if sub-freezing temperatures are able to push far enough east, there could be a window of opportunity for a narrow band of heavy, wet snow. And lastly, the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning, as well as expanded westward. Once this midweek system exits western Kansas Wednesday night an upper level ridge will begin to build across the Rockies and dry and warmer conditions will be returning to the area late week into early this upcoming weekend.
First of all did go ahead and issue a wind advisory across South Central Louisiana into portions of Central Louisiana where the low level jet will be most pronounced with good mixing.
A vigorous, compact low will move out over the southern Plains by 12z today, with a weaker s/wv out ahead of it lifting northeast from AR across the lower Ohio Valley first part of today. By 00z, the low should be over northwest AR, with our region warm sectoring. That coupled with how far south the low track is (not as favorable for significant severe) plus an increasingly meridional aspect, are reasons for continued uncertainty in the overall severe wx threat.
1031 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A cutoff upper-level low pressure slowly meanders eastward this evening and overnight before being reabsorbed in the northern branch of the jet stream. Additional snow accumulations will generally be under and inch, with the highest totals over southwestern Minnesota. Temperatures have risen above freezing for locations west of I-29 and south of I-90, so melting snow mixed with rain only leads to minimal accumulations for this area.
523 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE A strong upper low continues to bring IFR/MVFR winter weather over eastern NM. But there will be more snow, blowing snow, and strong winds through this morning across eastern NM as moisture rotates around the upper low.
535 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Precipitation has largely tapered off early this morning as the strong mid-level closed low continues to exit to our south and east. In its wake, infrared satellite imagery reveals low clouds and patchy fog remain across the higher elevations with perhaps a leftover flurry or two. On Thursday, a large ridge of high pressure will build into the Intermountain West with the ridge axis located directly over the CWA by the afternoon. In response, southwest flow will boost high temperatures several degrees warmer than today and highs will end up a few degrees above normal. On Thursday night low pressure system will begin to make landfall in the Pacific Northwest while the ridge axis pushes out over the plains.