Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level troughing will continue to hang around today as surface ridging begins to slowly build in. With troughing and some low level moisture still in place over the area, there will some strato cu development during the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 knots will be common over the open waters of Lake Huron where the long fetch will build the highest waves toward the Canadian border. Wind speed will diminish tonight while a secondary front/trough reinforces cool air over the warm lake water through Thursday.
A Canadian cold front will pass through the region this afternoon and evening, but with dew points only in the 40s and lower 50s, and little or no instability, would expect it to come through dry. Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather across the forecast area on Thursday, with sunny and dry conditions, low humidity, and highs in the 65 to 70 range.
201 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 This morning, Upper Michigan was situated between high pressure over the Northern Plains and low pressure southeast of the Hudson Bay. As the above mentioned area of high pressure begins to work it's way into Upper Michigan later today, breezy winds will subside through the afternoon and evening hours from west to east.
154 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure will build into the region through the end of the week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend. With clear skies and decreasing winds, expect lows in the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s not out of the question across our northwest. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 70s.
312 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across the northeastern CONUS, which will place the Midwest within cyclonic northwesterly flow through the period. This high will shift east across the region tonight, allowing for calm winds and clear skies. With dewpoints having mixed out into the low 50s this afternoon, expect a cool night. Would not be surprised to see some of the cooler valley locations dip into the low 50s or even upper 40s.
352 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A reinforcing cold front is expected to generate some showers on Thursday. Weekend weather will feature cool and dry conditions with high pressure. A broad upper trough in the ern CONUS will dominate the wx pattern through much of the remaining forecast as an upper ridge amplifies in the central CONUS. The Ohio Valley will lie between this ridge and the persistent upper trough on the east coast.
222 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Today is expected to be a relatively down day for convective activity compared to the past and future several days despite height falls from a weakening upper level ridge to the west.
1134 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The northern plains are situated between an upper level ridge to the west and a trough to the east. Upper ridge axis will shift over the Rockies today, as a Canadian low pressure system begins pushing into the Pacific Northwest.
A weak cold front will bring light showers to the coast this evening. The trailing upper level trough will cross the region late tonight into Thursday.
/Today through Tonight/ Large area of high pressure situated across NE/KS to translate eastward across IA and southeastward into MO/IL tonight.
640 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A reinforcing cold front is expected to generate some showers on Thursday. Weekend weather will feature cool and dry conditions with high pressure. A broad upper trough in the ern CONUS will dominate the wx pattern through much of the remaining forecast as an upper ridge amplifies in the central CONUS. The Ohio Valley will lie between this ridge and the persistent upper trough on the east coast.
Expect fair weather tonight and a warmer day Tuesday.
706 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 High pressure will nose over the area from the southwest tonight and Tuesday. A closed upper low will pass through southern New Mexico tonight and Tuesday placing the forecast area under the col created between this low center and zonal flow over the northern Rockies. The short term will remain dry but high clouds will ride over the top of the ridge so variable higher clouds are expected.
Stalled frontal boundary from Southeast Louisiana to the middle Texas coast will move back to the north as a warm front tonight. This will bring typical warm frontal conditions for TAF sites, which include lowering of ceilings and visibilities to IFR/LIFR by 19/06Z that will linger through 19/18Z. Upper low currently east of the Baja is progged to begin weakening and accelerating EWD tomorrow, translating through the ARKLATEX during the overnight hours. Southerly flow returns THU amid lee cyclogenesis ahead of a digging WRN CONUS trof. Upper trof is forecast to continue digging into the Central CONUS, driving a CDFNT into the region FRI or FRI night.
High pressure next 2 days with near normal temperatures for the California interior.
Temps overnight should remain above freezing tonight and then with southwesterly winds tomorrow, plenty of WAA and sunshine to allow temps to climb above 50 across the entire CWA. This will bring in some clouds and slightly cooler temps, through still above normal for middle of Dec.
417 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 Weak upper low over NM will eject slowly eastward tonight and Tuesday, with upper flow gradually becoming more northwesterly across CO. Overnight low temps will be several degf warmer than last night across most of the area, as weak frontal boundary drops south through the plains and light w-nw winds keep ern mountain slopes and southeastern CO slightly better mixed.
Upper low currently east of the Baja is progged to begin weakening and accelerating EWD tomorrow, translating through the ARKLATEX during the overnight hours. Southerly flow returns THU amid lee cyclogenesis ahead of a digging WRN CONUS trof. Upper trof is forecast to continue digging into the Central CONUS, driving a CDFNT into the region FRI or FRI night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 58 51 62 / 0 60 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 59 48 55 / 0 30 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 40 57 47 54 / 0 30 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 57 43 50 / 10 20 70 90 NC.
551 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017 Did increase PoPs across southwest and south central North Dakota for light rain changing to light snow showers for the next couple hours along the low level baroclinic zone. This should be just some light rain or a brief rain and snow mix before it moves south of the region later tonight as a cold front slide south. Tuesday will be in between systems and cooler than today.
Moist northwesterly flow will gradually become westerly overnight into Tuesday and should allow for some decrease in the high cloudiness currently noted across the area. Weds will see the warmest temperatures as a thermal ridge builds over the high plains ahead of a digging upper trough over the western CONUS. Changes begin Weds night as a strong cold front moves across the CWA bringing much colder temperatures.
548 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017 An east to west oriented jet max will move through North Dakota tonight which will allow a cooler high pressure to drop south. Just a touch of a surface pressure gradient ahead of this high pressure should allow for mild Tuesday morning low temperatures, roughly mid to upper 20s in most locations. Even with the cooler air in place on Tuesday, high temperatures will be a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal tonight with the cloud cover and rain around the region. A warm front lifting through the region tomorrow will allow for temperatures to climb into the 70's and dew points into the mid-60's. Greater rain chances will be focused along the warm front.
Expect those gusty winds (up to 40 mph) to continue into the early evening hours until the cold front currently located near the Canadian/Montana border sweeps through. Ahead of that cold front, we're likely seeing the warmest day for the rest of 2017 and temperatures have warmed into the 40s by 1pm for most of the area. The cold front will continue to slide to the southeast and across the area this evening, shifting winds around to the northwest. A high pressure ridge will quickly move over the area tomorrow morning before sliding to the east and into MN by evening. Behind this evenings cold front, highs tomorrow will be around 10 degrees cooler than today, but still well above normal for this time of year.
356 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 Weak upper low over NM will eject slowly eastward tonight and Tuesday, with upper flow gradually becoming more northwesterly across CO. Overnight low temps will be several degf warmer than last night across most of the area, as weak frontal boundary drops south through the plains and light w-nw winds keep ern mountain slopes and southeastern CO slightly better mixed.
High pressure aloft will continue over the Great Basin through Tuesday.
There are warmer areas where clouds have scattered out, but this will just set the stage for fog formation later tonight as the moist low level airmass hangs around. Upper level water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning just south of Arizona, and this system will move into the Southern Plains by late Tuesday.
750 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 It was another warm day across the region with most places seeing high temperatures in the low 80s, about 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Low-level high pressure will continue to settle directly over central Florida tonight into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will bottom out in the low 60s with a few mid 60s possible around the Orlando metro and coastal Martin county.
Aloft: Major amplification with a Wrn USA trof forming and gradually drifting E into the Cntrl USA. A weak cold front will push south across NE and will bring a wind shift overnight to the Northwest and will become northeasterly by mid morning as the high moves the the SE Tuesday.
Warmer low level air will continue to stream across southern WI most of the night due to stronger low to mid level winds associated with passing mid-level short wave well to the north of the area. Although temperatures dropping to near surface dewpoint and around freezing, expect increasing low level winds to prevent significant fog/freezing fog threat, and drying air in the low levels should prevent much stratus redevelopment. Push of warm air in the low levels will result in low level wind shear criteria being reached for much of the overnight hours. These clouds may move across eastern CWA next few hours, but increasing low level winds will be ushering in drier air in the low levels, so not expecting stratus to become more widespread overnight.
Even when the low clouds begin to erode, plenty of mid to upper level cloudiness streaming in from the west so mostly cloudy will be the rule.
High pressure will continue to ridge across the coastal waters this week with light winds and seas expected to continue with minimal rain chances.
/issued 408 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017/ A deep ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the region through the weekend.
Tuesday night, a significant closed low, now over the Desert Southwest, will move into the Mid MS River Valley.
518 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Our weather will continue to be cloudy and unsettled into Tuesday night with chances for precipitation especially across the higher terrain.
Upper low over the Sonora/Arizona border will lift ENE across the CWA tonight and Tuesday. Precip will be rain as the temps will remain well above freezing.
A deformation zone trailing southwest of Great Lakes area troughing will reside over the local area tonight into early Tuesday.
High pressure aloft over the Great Basin will bring dry and mild conditions to Utah early this week.
We will be in continued warm advection this evening but overnight a cold front will sink south across Iowa. Temperatures on Tuesday will be a little cooler north but southern Iowa should still see highs in the 50s. However, at the beginning of this timeframe, Iowa will still be in a mild regime with increasing warm advection as the trof in the west drops south into the intermountain west.
717 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 Weak upper low over NM will eject slowly eastward tonight and Tuesday, with upper flow gradually becoming more northwesterly across CO. Overnight low temps will be several degf warmer than last night across most of the area, as weak frontal boundary drops south through the plains and light w-nw winds keep ern mountain slopes and southeastern CO slightly better mixed.
Readings varied from around 40 degrees near Freeport, to the lower 50s from Burlington to Keokuk and Macomb.
423 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017 Increasing southerly flow tonight ahead of a potent upper trough currently over Northern Mexico will result in increasing moisture areawide. The heaviest rainfall amounts should occur in this region which will be just north of a warm front, along a strong theta-e gradient, and co- located with a band of mid-level frontogenesis.
/issued 307 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/ (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Our area will have clearing skies Tuesday night, as a weakening upper trough lifts northeast into Oklahoma.
High pressure will ridge from the Atlantic westward along the northeast Gulf Coast through Tuesday.
Lows will end up in the lower to middle 60s. Fog will be slow to dissipate Tue Morning and will likely not clear over inland areas until late morning hours with some lingering along the Atlc Coast near the cooler water temps well into the early afternoon hours.
/issued 252 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/ An upper low currently over the AZ/NM state line will slowly push eastward this evening into tomorrow morning before transitioning into an open wave.
Banding of snow never got going in NW MN as the best forcing seemed to occur when we had the warmer temps at 850 mb surge in. Thus heaviest precip was rain (freezing rain) vs snow. A bit cooler air to start slipping south so northern fcst area to remain blo freezing for highs while southern fcst area to see one last abv freezing day. This combined with a stout upper level trough moving southeast out of the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners region.
413 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 A low-amplitude ridge continues to build into the northern plains. At the surface, a weak trough covers the region.
814 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2017 Under col region on the poleward side of a passing upper trough. On Tuesday, a short wave ridge aloft will be over the region.
653 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A ridge will remain over the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes tonight, but a cold front will push across the forecast area late Tuesday. Dirty ridge remains over the Upper Ohio valley and Lower Great Lakes. A cold front move across the area late tomorrow ushering in more seasonal conditions.
To their south, a cutoff low is meandering along the Arizona and New Mexico Border with potent upper ridging across the Bahamas and into the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure lingers across the western Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern states. With potent upper level ridging and a stable/subsident weather pattern, expect above average temperatures to persist with highs in the 80s both today and tomorrow. Additionally, as low level moisture rides up and over cooler shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the potential for sea fog will increase especially along the Nature Coast and points north where colder waters currently reside.
The local evening sounding indicated that some drier air had pulled closer to the Florida Keys over the past few hours on a backed profile through the lowest 6000 feet.
Many locations overachieved on temperatures this afternoon in western MN, in large part thanks to the momentum of the southwest winds coming off the buffalo ridge. A cold front will drop through overnight with the clearing skies, but its more of a wind shift and influx of drier air behind the front with a lack of actual cold air behind the front.
655 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Low clouds continue to erode from west to east as drier comes in along with high pressure.
640 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A frontal boundary will continue to lift north of the region tonight with high pressure building into the region through Tuesday.
With the continued, mainly light, southerly flow continuing and the cooler near shore waters, setup continues to be prime for likelihood of dense fog across most of the region. Much warmer than normal temperatures for this time of the year continue in the near term period, with lows tonight generally around 20-25 degrees above normal, and highs on Tuesday around 15-20 degrees above what would normally be expected.
Regardless, have trended twd the warmer guidance for temps tonight. Have therefore trended twd warmer guidance. Differences still continue regarding the timing of the trof digging into the srn Rockies region and ejecting into the Plains. Hopefully guidance will come into better agreement after the low makes landfall and is sampled tomorrow evening, at least partially sampled. While mdls continue to suggest some precip is possible over the weekend, have kept PoPs low due to uncertainty already mentioned, but also that any precip will depend on the location of the main trof axis as well as any s/w that rotates thru the trof.
It will be a rather mild and quiet night with zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface. Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 58 51 62 / 0 60 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 59 48 55 / 0 30 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 40 57 47 54 / 0 30 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 57 43 50 / 10 20 70 90.
While we could still see some of the low clouds break apart in the northern half of the CWA, we should see a steady inflow of high clouds overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will be moving out of Texas and toward the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.
The GFS shows precipitable water at or below an inch due to subsidence from the ridge aloft. East winds will increase as high pressure north of the waters strengthens slightly.
725 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 Summerlike Bermuda High Pressure will persist over the region through the work week maintaining above normal temperatures.
549 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017 Updated aviation section The closed low responsible for the showers and storms this afternoon and evening has opened up and become an open wave as it moves across the CWA. A strong 110+kt jet streak continues to drop down from just off the British Columbia coast supporting a very deep, closed low.
1054 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure through Wednesday with increasing temperatures. Elkins is radiating out much faster than previously forecast so have now drop low temperatures in the Tygart Valley to the low 50s. I did adjust Elkins low temperature down a few degrees based on current dew points and overall model guidance values cooler than current forecast. Upper level ridging in place providing mainly clear conditions and very warm air with the passage of a warm front earlier this morning. Do have concerns that slight might need to be added to the highest ridges in Randolph/Pocahontas for Wednesday, but will go dry for now.
1055 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 A large subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States will dominate our weather through most next 7 days.
953 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will result in dry and very warm conditions through mid-week.
Proton Previous Discussion: Main feature this period is an upper low that drops southeast out of the Pacific NW tonight and into the central Rockies Wednesday.
747 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 A large subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States will dominate our weather through most next 7 days.
This afternoon through tonight: Latest water vapor imagery shows a large dome of high pressure ridge dominating the eastern CONUS. Wednesday through this weekend: As high pressure establishes itself near Bermuda by mid to late week, easterly winds will become breezy, especially along the immediate Atlantic coast.
Dry weather under high pressure continues until Wednesday night. Surface analysis shows Strong High pressure in place over the Carolinas. with a broad area of low pressure stretching from Wisconsin to the Texas panhandle. trended lows warmer than the previous night. Wednesday should be dry with Indiana still sandwiched between high pressure to the southeast and low pressure to the west. Wednesday night still looks like upper ridging will control the weather over much of the area, but NAM/GFS/ECM are all in agreement with putting some qpf over the southwestern counties associated with a weak upper wave.
956 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure through Wednesday with increasing temperatures. Elkins is radiating out much faster than previously forecast so have now drop low temperatures in the Tygart Valley to the low 50s. I did adjust Elkins low temperature down a few degrees based on current dew points and overall model guidance values cooler than current forecast. Upper level ridging in place providing mainly clear conditions and very warm air with the passage of a warm front earlier this morning. Do have concerns that slight might need to be added to the highest ridges in Randolph/Pocahontas for Wednesday, but will go dry for now.
Another warm day tomorrow, as warm, or maybe even a degree warmer than today. At 01Z temperatures ranged from the the lower to middle 70s near Crossville to around 80 in Nashville and Clarksville with upper 70s closer to the river.
508 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017 Latest upper analysis shows another upper low moving onshore into the pacific northwest while the previous upper low gradually weakens over the four corners region.
/Issued 337 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017/ As a result of strong low pressure moving northeast out of the central plains. upper ridge over the forecast area will gradually slide toward the Atlantic coast during the short term. Models have been slowing the trailing cold front and it looks like it will begin to affect our area just beyond the short term period. 17 Forecast looks on track with mid-level ridging across the area through the end of the work-week.
The low pressure system that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region earlier today continues to push northeast and away from the area, while another is currently intensifying over Colorado.
A strong cold front passed the Boise area around 7 pm mdt this evening and will reach the Magic Valley around 9 pm mdt. The upper level low pressure system following the cold front, containing the coldest air aloft, will be over eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho tonight, then drift slowly southeast on Wednesday. Amounts will be generally 1 to 2 inches, with up to 5 inches over the Owyhee Mountains, and the higher mountains east of McCall. Snow will mix with the rain in the lower valleys, with little or no accumulations.
Upper level ridge was over the area. Upper level jet was on the northeast side of the ridge Few echoes appeared over Sargent and Ransom counties and have now disappeared. Potential to mix to near 850mb by Wednesday afternoon winds winds near advisory criteria in the higher terrain of the Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne river of eastern ND. Much cooler highs with 850mb temps in the 2 to 6C range and leading to highs in the 50s and 60s.
Weather will continue to be a non-factor in terms of flight operations during the next 24 hours at cha and tys as subsidence from the amplified ridge pattern generates way too much warm air aloft for much other than some fair weather cu in a few spots.
938 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer than last night after a very warm day today, and forecast low level jet overnight which may help to keep the boundary layer disturbed enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies.
The combination of increased clouds and warmer dewpoints should keep temps a little milder tonight, particularly in rural areas outside the Memphis metro. Broad southwest flow aloft will increase over the next few days a slow-moving trough moves east across the Southern Rockies.