Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
641 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Tonight, an upper level ridge will shift from the Plains to the Northland, promoting clearing skies. to the lower 50s well inland. The trough will bring a surge of moisture and increasing chances of showers in the afternooninto the evening.
740 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 As weak high pressure slips to our south this evening, a secondary cold front will stall near the NC-VA state line late tonight/early Tuesday. Weak high pressure over the area this afternoon will quickly slip southeast of the area this evening, allowing light southerly winds to develop. Attendant dry secondary cold front will push south and stall across northeastern NC/southeastern VA at around daybreak. It's possible that convective rain chances/pops could be higher than expected and linger into the overnight hours if any of the individual upper disturbances leftover from the remnant upper low over the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf Coast states drift north into the area.
The short lived cooler and drier airmass across the area has now given way to a hot and humid airmass. Short term forecast concern revolves around mesoscale forced thunderstorms with weak forcing, and what this does to the airmass ahead of a negatively tilted trof advecting in to the area in the afternoon. Residual outflow boundaries from tonight's convection, along with a H5 trof swinging into the area and a warm advection wing moving across the CWA during the day will lead to the development of thunderstorms. If storms remain elevated, the main threat during the day may be hail from any rotating thunderstorms along the warm front. If storms can become surface based, then brief tornadoes could be possible across the warm front during the day.
Mid and upper trof slowly advancing east across the area will lower rain chances over BPT and LCH through Tuesday and carrying no more than VCTS. High pressure incoming behind low pressure aloft advancing east across the region will bring much less shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday.
An upper level trough deepening down the West Coast and moderately strong onshore flow at the surface will result in cooler than normal temperatures for the next several days.
Sharp moisture delineation remains centered just to our southwest along elevated warm front. Leftover MCS showers over central/southern lower MI are now effectively becoming an eastern extension of a warm front in eastern Iowa/ northern IL. That isn/t terribly impressive, but the e-w deep moisture plume associated with the warm front is not far away.
High pressure remains in the central Gulf of Mexico and will continue to be the dominant weather feature for the short term period. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s while daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90s regionwide. Winds will remain out of the west southwest at 15 knots or less through the week as high pressure sets up over the central Gulf of Mexico.
715 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Warm front to our south will move slowly back northward. A low pressure system/weak cold front will then move through for the end of the work week. High pressure. allowing a warm front to approach the area from the southwest on Tuesday. Clouds should slowly increase on Tuesday as the warm front approaches the area. Latest temperature guidance was a few degrees cooler for lows tonight.
944 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will lose its influence on our area Tuesday afternoon.
Some cloud cover will linger across the west with overnight lows generally in the low 70s.
These are the result of moisture beginning to move back into our region ahead of a surface cold front and upper-level trof currently over the PacNW region. With warmer SW flow aloft, overnight low temps should be more mild than the unseasonably cool temps from last night, with upper 40s and low 50s expected across the lower elevations.
/issued 334 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ Storms developing over the high plains of Colorado and New Mexico will make a move toward northwestern Oklahoma tonight, with the HRRR indicating that it may move into the forecast area as early as 02Z.
713 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Our region will remain in northwest flow for most of the forecast period as a large ridge builds over the southwestern United States and central North America. Another nice day though a bit warmer Tuesday.
As high pressure builds aloft and dry air invades above the inversion, the forecast gets a little easier. Gradient increases a bit more over today despite 500 mb ridge locking in over south Texas, perhaps a response to upstream flat troughing across New Mexico into the central Plains and associated lower surface pressures over west Texas to the Sierra Madre range. /issued 300 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Atmospheric drying now quite evident in current water-vapor channel satellite imagery on the front side of an upper-level ridge with axis analyzed from Coahuila up through the Panhandle region. At the surface, pressure gradient between central Gulf high and thermal trough over the interior of Mexico is maintaining breezy S-SE winds.
High pressure incoming behind low pressure aloft advancing east across the region will bring much less shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 92 73 91 / 30 40 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 70 89 / 20 40 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 71 89 / 20 40 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 89 67 86 / 10 30 40 60.
730 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Thunderstorm complex currently over southwest KS and OK Panhandle should continue to maintain its strength over the next few hours given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment over the High Plains. Beyond midnight, thunderstorm forecast confidence is low, with modest to low chances maintained generally anywhere along and west of the Flint Hills within zone of weak to modest moisture transport/warm advection, underneath broad large scale ascent ahead of approaching upper trough. Am not inclined to believe most models showing due east movement given what happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient, although slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit southern extent.
It's possible that convective rain chances/pops could be higher than expected and linger into the overnight hours if any of the individual upper disturbances leftover from the remnant upper low over the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf Coast states drift north into the area.
Upper level ridge that has been in place the past few days begins to dampen and push east into Tuesday with a stronger upper level trough ejects out of the desert SW. Upper level ridging to build back into the central US in earnest through the end of the week into the weekend. H85 temps increase into the low to mid 20s C through the week. GFS/EC both try to dampen the ridge somewhat into the weekend bringing a few weak waves across the northern US with some storm chances. Winds be variable overnight but become southeast on Tuesday as low pressure moves from the Plains toward Minnesota.
Water Vapor loop shows a trough lifting through the eastern great basin with an expansive closed low along the British Columbia coast. Convective excitement rapidly diminishing with the trough axis lifting out and waning diurnal instability. The upper level trough along the Utah/Nevada border late this afternoon will sweep east across the state overnight. A second area of organized convection will persist along the advancing trough axis across western/northern Utah this evening. Drier air and dynamic subsidence trailing the trough should bring an end to most convection after midnight. The next cold core upper trough will settle into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday. This trough will produce an increasingly strong and dry southwest flow across the eastern Great Basin beginning Tuesday.
Forecast challenge for tonight will be overnight lows as high pressure over the region should keep region mostly clear in the evening, with some cirrus in the south and southeast. Overall looking for overnight lows in the mid 50s but if skies are clear longer and winds become light enough across the region, overnight lows may be a few deg cooler.
1015 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Warm front to our south will move slowly back northward. A low pressure system/weak cold front will then move through for the end of the work week. High pressure firmly in place tonight. High pressure. allowing a warm front to approach the area from the southwest on Tuesday. Clouds should slowly increase on Tuesday as the warm front approaches the area. Latest temperature guidance was a few degrees cooler for lows tonight.
1051 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Late evening surface analysis depicts weak high pressure (1016 millibars) centered over the central Gulf of Mexico. A "backdoor" cold front was stalling over South Carolina. Aloft, troughing was progressing eastward off the New England coast, with a narrow ridge in place over our region. Meanwhile, a weak low and mid level trough was progressing slowly eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley. Another hot and humid day is expected Tuesday as mid-level ridging only gradually shifts eastward and the low/mid level trough to our west moves into the FL panhandle by sunset. Plenty of morning and early afternoon sunshine will boost highs into mid/upper 90s inland and the lower 90s at the beaches, with heat indices topping out in the 103-107 range for most locations.
(Issued 206 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016) Under partly cloudy skies temps were in the lower 90s with dewpoints arnd 70.
This trough has been responsible for creating a few clusters of thunderstorms. Lows only expected to drop from the current values around 80 to the low 70s overnight. Upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across central Illinois today, leading to mostly sunny and hot conditions. With no strong boundary to focus on and the low-level jet remaining well to the west across the Plains, think any storms that develop will be diurnally driven and will dissipate later in the evening. Low temperatures will remain in the lower 70s.
658 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across central Illinois today, leading to mostly sunny and hot conditions. With no strong boundary to focus on and the low-level jet remaining well to the west across the Plains, think any storms that develop will be diurnally driven and will dissipate later in the evening. Low temperatures will remain in the lower 70s.
An approaching trough and accompanying cold front will increase shower development through the night. Energy ahead of the trough will support isolated showers across the southwest ID highlands, parts of the Snake Plain and eastern the Boise Mountains late this evening. Winds will remain gusty along the I-84 corridor in southeast Oregon overnight, increasing across the lower Snake Plain after midnight.
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Clouds will give way to clearing skies overnight as high pressure builds toward the area from southeastern Canada.
A few light showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper trough and may spread east across the region overnight.
With the upper trough still to our west creating lift. Additional convection over the mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough, responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer than today, with readings near normal for this time of year.
751 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Somewhat flat upper level ridge from central conus across Upper Great Lakes builds and moves east through Tue afternoon. At the sfc, high pressure ridge from Hudson Bay expands across rest of Great Lakes by Tue aftn. Stationary front will stay on the southwest edge of the High pressure ridge and most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain closer to the stationary front as they are doing this afternoon. The overall pattern through the upcoming weekend will be dominated by a fairly large mid-level ridge spanning from the Rockies to New England. During this time a series of troughs will attempt to move through the area, with the main focus on rain chances mid-week.
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Our region will remain in northwest flow for most of the forecast period as a large ridge builds over the southwestern United States and central North America. Another nice day though a bit warmer Tuesday.
721 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Clouds will give way to clearing skies overnight as high pressure builds toward the area from southeastern Canada.
Tonight, an upper level ridge will shift from the Plains to the Northland, promoting clearing skies. to the lower 50s well inland. The trough will bring a surge of moisture and increasing chances of showers in the afternoon into the evening.
Position of ridge axis and some drier air working in at mid levels from the southeast will result in the lowest PoPs along the Treasure Coast.
248 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Southerly winds have been gusty today, as the CWA sits in an area of relatively tight isobars between high pressure to the east and low pressure west.
418 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 High pressure will slowly move northeast of the region through the weekend. Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine Saturday night. A high pressure ridge will dominate the weather for the area through the forecast period. The warm front will continue to move north through the period, and by the end of the period will be over southwestern Maine, and the Gulf of Maine. The ECMWF show the low in the same area 6 hours later. Weak low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine Saturday night while high pressure remains ridged across the region. The low will bring rain to Downeast areas Saturday night, with the better chances near the coast. High pressure will keep partly cloudy skies across northern areas Saturday night.
Model ensembles continued to show difficulty in resolving upcoming pattern due to the strong omega blocking pattern covering the eastern Pacific and U. Strong upper trough was digging off the Pacific coast this afternoon on water vapor imagery with other energy N of the trough digging S into the system.
Surface dewpoints range from the upper 40s across the northern ranchlands to the upper 60s across the lower valley. The lower dewpoints along with the near to above normal temperatures are allowing for a pleasant afternoon. Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night will be in the 60s at most locations, expect for the low 70s near the coast and along the River.
As the low lifts north the progs are showing an increase in DCVA throughout the night and is further enhanced on Saturday as the circulation center arrives closer to the lower Michigan vicinity.
315 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 An upper low near the Ohio River will begin to drift north tonight and should be over northern Indiana Saturday afternoon.
This activity is forming out ahead of a surface cold front that will slowly work its way through the Northern Rockies on Saturday. Models are generating most of the precipitation during the morning hours along the instability generated by this slow moving cold front. Some patchy fog may locally inhibit visibility across NW Montana with fog development farther south possible if heavier precipitation persists Saturday, sufficiently moistening the lower atmosphere.
213 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 A large upper level low will remain in place over the Ohio Valley today, and then begin lifting north through the Great Lakes this weekend. Under the influence of this upper low expect cool and occasionally rainy conditions. Chances for rain will begin to diminish on Saturday, as the low gradually begins to move to the northeast.
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 A weak wave of low pressure and associated frontal zone will drift east across our region through early Saturday, then offshore through the rest of the weekend, while a persistent upper level low over the Tennessee Valley lifts across the Lower Great Lakes.
234 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016 An upper level short wave trough moves through the apex of the persistent upper ridge in place over the high plains region during the day on Saturday.
Pesky upper low that has been slowly wobbling around central Kentucky will drift northward tonight to a position somewhere along the IN/OH border by daybreak Saturday. Models show the upper low continuing to on it's northward trend, though would not be surprised at it slowing down before making it to Lake Erie, as several models suggest. Those chances should start waning with loss of heating and with our distance from the low Saturday night. Will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of south-central KY where the signal for dense fog is the highest.
1208 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Main forecast focus in the short term is the pesky upper low and its journey back north-northwest toward the area. The highest likelihood for any rain will be primarily across WI, with chances diminishing greatly west of the Mississippi River. Model solutions have been very similar and consistent for the last several days on this scenario, but have differed somewhat on just how much rain will actually manifest as the system battles the drier air in the ridge axis.
635 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 A stationary front will linger just offshore through the weekend as high pressure builds south. Tonight: The large and deep mid/upper level low centered over Kentucky will slowly begin to lift northward. Meanwhile at the surface, a broad and weak area of low pressure will persist as the main moisture band along the residual front will remain offshore.
412 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Upper level low pressure will continue to produce bands of showers across the region into the weekend. Closed low will continue to spin across the lower Ohio Valley through the period with a slow wobble toward the north.
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 The last day of September had an upper ridge over the area this morning with a deep low over the Eastern U. and a trough along the NW Coast. This trough will slowly dig down the West Coast before swinging inland.
1143 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Chances for showers and thunderstorms ramp up today as the upper trof lifts out across CO. By afternoon showers and thunderstorms will re-develop across the mountains as trailing portion of the upper trof axis moves across. Temperatures today should be a couple degrees cooler across the plains given more clouds today. to a couple degrees cooler across the east. Lows tonight should be a tad cooler than this morning.
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Satellite clearly shows the Low is rotating across the mid Ohio river valley attm. Low clouds will again hang around tonight, even as the Low starts to lift north again, headed back toward the Great Lakes. Tmrw nite, these chances will diminish for good, as the Low finally makes its way back to the Great Lakes.
322 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Today and tomorrow a weak upper trough will be slowly moving east through the weak upper ridge over Colorado. At the surface a low pressure center resides over southeast Colorado. The boundary and the clouds resulted in slightly cooler temperatures today.
1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue today and through tomorrow, as upper-level low pressure spins and slowly retrogrades across the Mississippi Valley, keeping the region entrenched in northerly flow. In general, the response of the west- ward creeping upper low will be to increase cloud cover particularly across the eastern half of the CWA, and possibly allow a few very light, very isolated rain showers to develop east of Hwy 65.
155 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Upper level low pressure will continue to produce bands of showers across the region into the weekend. Closed low will continue to spin across the lower Ohio Valley through the period with a slow wobble toward the north.
Pleasant conditions will continue through the period, as the cold front has progressed well south and east of the area this afternoon.
Weak ridging continues closer to home over much of Alabama. A potent and large upper low continues to rotate over portions of the Ohio Valley. Unfortunately, the center of the upper low (thus the stronger lift/more concentrated/deeper moisture and rainfall) is well north of Southern Middle TN and northern Alabama. Temperatures, especially west of a line from Winchester to Cullman, are 2 to 4 degrees cooler than yesterday at 10 am. This is mainly due to the low clouds that continue and fog earlier this morning. For 18Z TAFs: Closed upper level low pressure system over cntrl KY continues to usher lower MVFR cloud heights ewd across the area this early Fri afternoon.
232 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 No change in the location of the upper low since the last report, still located near Louisville KY early this afternoon. This low should finally start drifting northward toward midnight, with most of the models projecting it to reach the northeast Indiana area by late Saturday afternoon.
For Saturday, we'll see the wave that's now digging into the base of the offshore trough lift into the Cascades/Columbia Basin and produce another round of pcpn.
556 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 No change in the location of the upper low since the last report, still located near Louisville KY early this afternoon. This low should finally start drifting northward toward midnight, with most of the models projecting it to reach the northeast Indiana area by late Saturday afternoon.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the region ahead of a deepening Pacific trough.
331 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Stacked upper low near Louisville Kentucky this afternoon with upper ridging over the western Great Plains states.
227 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016 An upper level short wave trough moves through the apex of the persistent upper ridge in place over the high plains region during the day on Saturday.
222 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Deep upper low drifting over southern great lakes area, keeping upper ridge and nw flow aloft, locked in ovhd. As this low begins to move into the New England states, upper ridge begins to flatten out, and temps to warm back to seasonal values. 590 upper ridge rebuilds back in from south tx, thus fairly dry conditions will reestablish to conclude this fcst.
Surface - High pressure sprawled from the southern plains to the Deep South. and Atlantic high pressure ridged into south FL. However as the low level flow becomes northeast and east - the gulf convection stays offshore as showers/storms form inland in the afternoon then push toward the Gulf coast late in the afternoon. this will support isolated to scattered coverage with the highest inland and south.
1118 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016 08Z analysis places a low pressure center over southeastern Montana with a trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. High pressure was located over MN/IA resulting in a relatively tight sfc pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds across the SD part of the forecast area. A period of increased cloud cover will lead to high temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
216 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Strong upper closed low continues to spin over the region, with the center currently located over central KY. Models have the low continuing to churn over that region until Saturday morning when it begins its track northward. Before that, lobes of vorticity will pass through the mid state as they swing around the upper low, so continued chances for showers will stay in the forecast through Saturday afternoon.
352 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 A stationary front will linger just offshore through the weekend as high pressure builds south. Tonight: The large and deep mid/upper level low centered over Kentucky will slowly begin to lift northward. Meanwhile at the surface, a broad and weak area of low pressure will persist as the main moisture band along the residual front will remain offshore.
North Texas is currently under ridging aloft with weak northerly flow above the surface. Temperatures will warm a few degrees into the lower 80s areawide.