Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Trough axis has shifted well offshore of the Carolinas with a NW flow over the area and some weak upper level ridging. Highs may be slightly higher today compared to yesterday with upper level ridging beginning to build. Lows tonight will once again be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday and Wednesday night: Upper ridge remains over the region, with model soundings showing some mid-level capping still in place through the afternoon.
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure will gradually push east of the area today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Not much relief expected today as high pressure remains firmly in control across Deep South Texas, although, as the southern edge of the ridge weakens slightly, temperatures should begin to cool off by a degree or two each afternoon. Low pressure deepens across the Plains today into Wednesday, strengthening the pressure gradient and increasing southeasterly winds through the short term period.
323 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Much cooler conditions over the eastern plains today behind a cold front with max temps generally in the lower to mid 70s.
625 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure with another heat wave quickly beginning. Upper level trof shifts east today with rising heights as ridging expands into the region. High pressure surface and aloft will keep a mainly clear sky in place tonight with areas of dense river valley fog developing once again. Summer heat ridge aloft begins to rapidly strengthen across the region starting Wednesday, resulting in a return to rather hot conditions for the CWA. H85 temps are prog to increase to around 20 to 21 C for much of the lower elevations, which should translate to sfc temps in the mid 90s in the afternoon. Enough moisture depth may exist late Wed afternoon for an isolated shower to develop across the mountain ridges, but chances are too low to include in the forecast just yet.
Although an elongated ridge aloft remains in place over the Lone Star State today, this axis is already drifting north of our region as confirmed by regional RAOBs now sampling mostly easterly mid-level winds. Thicknesses are progged to decline a touch area wide today, but cooler highs will be most common along our coastal counties thanks to a stronger sea breeze with SE winds this afternoon of 20 to 25 mph. In addition to a slight uptick in PWATs by Wednesday under deeper easterly flow, temporary weakening of the upper high and lower thicknesses should bring heat indices below our Heat Advisory threshold for most areas.
608 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Light and variable winds will become southwesterly by mid-morning as stable high pressure centers over Lake Erie. Expect quiet weather today through Wednesday as ridging at the surface and aloft shift slowly east across the region.
Excessive Heat Warning expired on schedule yesterday evening, which looks good as Heat Risk grids are solidly in the Low to Moderate risk categories with only a few splotches of High and Extreme.
918 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Our quiet weather continues across the area today as high pressure is in control at the surface and ridging aloft. Within this flow, a trough will move from near the Mississippi River to near the Ohio River on Wednesday. At that point, the flow over the northern CONUS becomes zonal and high pressure remains over much of the southern CONUS.
Chambers Will continue to see isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the MT/WY and MT/Dakotas state lines today as weak energy rotates around the upper low and interacts with the 700mb front. Ridge begins to build in from the southwest along with the flow aloft backing to the west. This will bring sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s by the afternoon.
Initially, storm development should be discreet supercells given the high CAPE values and 30 knots of deep layer shear with storms becoming more organized with time into the early evening hours. Wednesday will be cooler with highs generally in the 80s to around 90 with low level northeasterly winds. The latter part of the week will see an upper ridge building from the Mid Atlantic and Southeast States into the central and southern High Plains while the stronger upper level westerlies are shunted farther north. This will bring a return to warmer temperatures across western Kansas with highs back up around or even a few degrees above the 100 degree mark. A cold front will bring northerly winds to the terminals through the day.