Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Pleasant weather is on tap across the Upper Midwest as high pressure passes to our north over the next 24 hours. Currently high pressure is centered over southwestern Ontario with a few high clouds across the area. High pressure will bring quiet and pleasant weather to eastern Iowa northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri over the next 24 hours. At the surface, the center of the high pressure will move across southern Ontario through 12 UTC Saturday. This will keep easterly winds across the area which will pull slightly cooler air than we had in place across the area yesterday. 850 mb temperatures will cool by 3 or 4 degrees through the day on Friday with the cooler air over my far northwest Illinois Counties. This will also result in temperatures being a couple of degrees cooler on Saturday morning.
Rainfall expected to be excessive at times, with the highest totals along and south of I-10 in southern Louisiana.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to dominate through Saturday afternoon. High pressure holds over the Great Lakes through the first half of the weekend, which should keep things dry and pleasant through at least Saturday night.
737 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend. Light rain south and east of Pittsburgh will slowly dissipate through the day as dry air continues to move in behind the cold front. Building high pressure behind the front and increasing subsidence aloft will slowly eradicate clouds from north to south and bring cooler air into the region, with high temperature values being several degrees below normal. Quiet weather is expected to prevail through the weekend with high pressure in control.
549 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 [Through 12Z Saturday] Ridge of high pressure will be situated across the southeast third of the CWA into the northern Gulf. Out west the effects of the ridge will not be as strong and widely scattered coverage is possible. Upper ridging is present in the Gulf and western Atlantic with southerly low-level flow toward the western FL Panhandle. Highs will be in the low-to-mid 90s.
Due to the position of this low, activity is moving to the southwest on the western half of our forecast area and stationary to slow northeastward on the eastern half. The Keys reside on the far western fringe of a mid level ridge and heights are near 590 dm. A predominantly northerly steering flow on the western half of this low will result in afternoon mainland convection to push southward towards the Keys. As a result, the highest chance for rain will be in the Upper Keys. A weak low pressure system will track west to northwestward across the Upper Keys and into South Florida this afternoon.
358 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 A trough exiting to our east today will maintain temperatures slightly below average.
513 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Overnight GOES-16 WV/IR loop revealed a upper low over southwest Montana with a trough axis extending to the Desert Southwest. A quasi-stationary surface front extended from northeast to southwest Wyoming, with a pre-frontal trough from southeast Wyoming south through east-central Colorado. Convective initiation will occur in the vicinity of the surface front and higher terrain between noon and 2 PM, then impacting the high plains between 3 PM and 8 PM.
High pressure will build over the southwest U. with a trough over the midwest this weekend. High temperatures will remain a few degrees cooler but still a few degrees above normal for this time of year.
320 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Overnight GOES-16 WV/IR loop revealed a upper low over southwest Montana with a trough axis extending to the Desert Southwest. A quasi-stationary surface front extended from northeast to southwest Wyoming, with a pre-frontal trough from southeast Wyoming south through east-central Colorado. Convective initiation will occur in the vicinity of the surface front and higher terrain between noon and 2 PM, then impacting the high plains between 3 PM and 8 PM.
Upper level ridging will build across the forecast area early this morning, while surface ridging is already in place over western Lake Superior. The aforementioned ridging drifts ever so slowly east through Saturday, but remains close enough to keep a dry forecast. An upper trough will sag south over western Canada as a ridge over the Great Lakes region slides eastward.
304 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Cold front was located near Scobey, Wolf Point, and Glendive at 2 am MDT (08Z). Meanwhile, an upper trough will drift east across Montana and Wyoming today and tonight. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler across the forecast area today. The upper trough drifts to the east on Saturday.
Today through Tonight Current satellite analysis of upper-level water vapor shows an upper-level trough running down through western Montana into Idaho south into Nevada. Model analysis has somewhat split flow ahead of this trough with high pressure over the Dakotas with another high pressure over the far desert southwest. However, severe storms will still be possible with MLCAPE values ranging from 2000 to 3000 J/Kg, with the higher end in the southeast Texas Panhandle. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s.
642 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Expect cooler and less humid weather to prevail across central Illinois into the weekend, as high pressure takes hold over the Great Lakes region. Below normal temperature pattern expected to continue most of the period, as the high over the Great Lakes and New England keeps the warmer weather shunted to the southwest.
Well above normal temperatures are expected through the forecast period as strong high pressure strengthens over NorCal. In addition, the ridge will keep interior NorCal under dry conditions. Valley locations should see temperatures in the upper 90s to around 106, while highs in the low 70s to mid 80s are expected over the mountains through the forecast period.
A weak ridge of high pressure traverses the region today allowing temperatures to rebound back to seasonal readings.
A weak upper ridge will provide the area with mostly clear skies and light winds today. Northwest flow will send a dry cold front through the region late Saturday. Winds will increase ahead of the front, becoming breezy in the higher elevations during the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer with highs 5 to 8 degrees above normal.
550 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Cooler, drier air is returning for the weekend. Otherwise, cooler and drier conditions can be expected today as high pressure to the north builds in behind the front. Quiet weather is expected to prevail through the weekend with high pressure in control.
Parent upper low is still to our west over south central MT, providing some ascent for additional weak shower development early this morning. Cannot rule out some diurnal development later today in our west/central parts, again per proximity to upper low, but low level capping may keep convection close to the mountains/foothills. Though shear will be on the low side today, there is a risk of strong-severe storms in our far east near places such as Baker and Ekalaka. Slow-moving upper low will open and exit tonight and a drier westerly flow will take shape. Drier zonal flow will push temps back to the 80s and near 90 degrees on Saturday, ahead of the next cold front.
Upstream convection approaching from the high plains is likely to weaken as it nears the area late tonight or Saturday morning, but will keep some pops going into Saturday just in case it survives longer than expected.
137 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An approaching cold front will move into the region overnight into Saturday.
High pressure will continue to dominate across the region.
A weak and diffuse cold front was drifting south from Kentucky and Virginia into northern Tennessee this afternoon. Lows tonight will be cooler north behind front but still upper 60s to lower 70s central and southern sections.
Temperatures were around 70 north of Interstate 94 and in the lower to mid-70s elsewhere. Tranquil weather will continue heading into the start of the weekend as surface ridging across the Great Lakes slowly drifts east.
There will be an increase in clouds from the west during the afternoon ahead of an upper trof advancing through the Plains, but the day looks void of precipitation with a continuation of below average temperatures.
1137 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend. Light rain south and east of Pittsburgh will slowly dissipate through the day as dry air continues to move in behind the cold front. Building high pressure behind the front and increasing subsidence aloft will slowly eradicate clouds from north to south and bring cooler air into the region, with high temperature values being several degrees below normal. Quiet weather is expected to prevail through the weekend with high pressure in control.
A weak upper trough will remain draped over the region today and Saturday with isolated/scattered thunderstorms expected across portions of the region each day.
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 A weak upper low over over the KS-OK-AR-MO four state area with a shear axis extending from OK into MO will meander slowly or remain quasi-stationary through tonight.
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 A weak upper low over over the KS-OK-AR-MO four state area with a shear axis extending from OK into MO will meander slowly or remain quasi-stationary through tonight.
314 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually drift east over the next few days, with dry conditions extending into the Ohio Valley.
/issued 1007 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/ The dogged heat ridge is definitely breaking down some over the region, as evidenced by a cluster of showers and storms currently oozing toward the Arklatex and a smattering of showers already getting ready to enter into southern zones. The 12Z SHV sounding this morning revealed residual ridge influence (in the form of dry and hot atmospheric mid levels) over the heart of the forecast area, but outflow from the mentioned storm cluster to our northwest and expected outflow from building showers and storms in our south will probably be enough to trigger isolated showers and storms by afternoon even here. The forecast was updated to increase rain chances in southeastern zones and far northern zones, although increasing high temperatures just a bit in central/west-central zones where the dogged ridge influence still remains.
We will likely see slightly cooler highs this afternoon as mid level clouds continue moving through the region. Water vapor loop shows blocking ridge over the region with some pretty dry air over MN. Tomorrow, the surface pattern will not change too much with continued southeast winds, but the upper trough begins to move into the Plains. Upper level low pressure system slowly moves across southern Canada through the period.
After that, storms will be relying on upper level support from a trough moving through the region. A stronger low level jet (in addition to the upper level trough continuing to make its way across the area) extending into a large portion of northwest Oklahoma may result in better chances of an MCS sustaining itself (either out of the panhandles or Kansas) into our forecast area tomorrow night.
At the surface, the region is currently between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with high temperatures on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s. Lows on Saturday night will again be in the lower to mid 60s.
The highest confidence of thunder is at KCNM between 23/23Z and 24/03Z; however, enough uncertainty exists now to keep from carrying a TEMPO at this terminal. The main impetus for this activity appears to be an upper trough moving thru the Southern Plains between the west and east coast ridges. Chances will taper off thru Sat night or so as the trough exits east.
For eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, it will be a fight between a moist axis of air stretched from the Dakotas to the southern Plains, and very dry air associated with large scale high pressure over the Great Lakes.
An upper trough will continue slowly east across the northern Rockies today. Weak ridging aloft will return this weekend, maintaining dry conditions and seasonally warm temperatures.
1051 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Expect cooler and less humid weather to prevail across central Illinois into this weekend, as high pressure takes hold over the Great Lakes region.
Weak cold front across southern Virginia and southern Kentucky this morning will move slowly south today and tonight.
1135 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Quiet stretch of weather continues through the weekend, courtesy of broad low level ridging drifting through southern Ontario but firmly maintaining drier air in place across the area. Otherwise, temperatures remain comfortable with daytime highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s, while the typical cooler spots dip into the 40s.
Weak mid/upper ridging over the area today will weaken further tonight as it will be influenced by two developing mid/upper level low pressure areas, one over the western Gulf and the other over the Bahamas. At the surface, weak high pressure continues along the Gulf coast and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, while a weak trof or frontal boundary continues well north of the area over extreme northern Alabama and Tennessee. Lows tonight in the lower 70s most areas except along the coast where mid to upper 70s are expected.
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes and New England through the weekend.
An upper trough will pass over southeastern Montana this evening, bringing about enough forcing to help initiate another round of storms. Temperatures will reach the low 80s today. Temperatures will briefly warm up for Saturday, reaching the low 90s.
915 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Upper low centered near Yellowstone National Park this morning is expected to lift NE today and weaken. Temps today will be noticeably cooler, but humidity is high too. TFJ Cold front was located near Scobey, Wolf Point, and Glendive at 2 am MDT (08Z). Meanwhile, an upper trough will drift east across Montana and Wyoming today and tonight. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler across the forecast area today. The upper trough drifts to the east on Saturday.
251 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Ridging prevails today but is slowly moving eastward as an upper low approaches from the west. Southwest winds turn southerly gradually overnight and will slowly increase our moisture levels ahead of the approaching H5 trough. Winds will increase as the trough approaches with southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph for Saturday.
The active pattern continues as a slow-moving, potent trough aloft digs into southern Montana, while at the surface a frontal boundary is draped across north-central and northeast Montana. As the trough progresses eastward, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in southeast Montana and the western Dakotas later this afternoon and into the evening. However, 0-1 km shear and 0-3 km SRH are both relatively high in central, so shallow storms might be able to become well- structured if they find a good overlap of instability and the low level shear.
309 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Our much anticipated cold front is continuing to move slowly south across the middle Mississippi and Tennessee valleys today.
348 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 National water vapor imagery showing a low-amplitude trough digging through the northern Rockies this afternoon, with latest surface analysis showing a stalled frontal boundary draped across northern Oklahoma with extension east into southern Missouri. Across our area, light echos are currently noted across our far southern counties, but drier air associated with high pressure across the western Great Lakes is preventing more widespread development from occurring. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 60s across most locations, however a few upper 50s will be possible across near Kirksville and surrounding locations. For tomorrow, models seem to be trending drier and drier as much of the lower Missouri Vly remains smacked between the high pressure off to our northeast and the stalled front to our west.
125 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Drier and cooler weather is expected through the weekend. Light rain south and east of Pittsburgh will slowly dissipate through the day as dry air continues to move in behind the cold front. Building high pressure behind the front and increasing subsidence aloft will slowly eradicate clouds from north to south and bring cooler air into the region, with high temperature values being several degrees below normal. Quiet weather is expected to prevail through the weekend with high pressure in control.
A few light rain showers persist over central Montana this morning, associated with the northeasterly upslope flow behind a departing upper level low.
1158 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Overnight GOES-16 WV/IR loop revealed a upper low over southwest Montana with a trough axis extending to the Desert Southwest. A quasi-stationary surface front extended from northeast to southwest Wyoming, with a pre-frontal trough from southeast Wyoming south through east-central Colorado. Convective initiation will occur in the vicinity of the surface front and higher terrain between noon and 2 PM, then impacting the high plains between 3 PM and 8 PM.
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 1220 PM CDT Dry and cooler conditions will continue through Saturday, and generally for the weekend, though with plentiful sunshine.
High pressure builds over the work week allowing for a warming and dry pattern. Anticipate warmer and drier conditions by Saturday afternoon.
Surface observations to our north show drier air filtering southward across central Kentucky behind a weak cold front, and this boundary will move into our southern counties tonight into tomorrow before stalling. This will keep northern areas dry and a bit cooler on Saturday, but heat, humidity, and scattered showers and storms are anticipated once again over southern zones.
954 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 A weak upper-level ridge will be building over the region today, bringing sunny skies and allowing temperatures to rise to seasonable values this afternoon. Winds are expected to remain breezy over the higher elevation mountains overnight.
255 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and another over the lower Great Lakes and New England with a ridge across the central and northern plains. The ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes tonight into Sat.
/issued 502 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/ The isolated convection currently across Oklahoma is expected to begin diminishing by mid morning as the low level jet driving it should be weakening. However, a short wave trough currently across the Central Plains will be moving further southward and initiating some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the highest POPs in place generally along and east of I-35. Heavy rainfall will also be possible as well, with the highest risk for some flooding across northern Oklahoma.
747 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An approaching cold front will move into the region overnight into Saturday.
With the loss of daytime heating and decreasing instability, expect a decrease in coverage during the next few hours with only a few isolated showers late tonight along and south of this cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 71 82 / 40 40 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 68 82 / 50 40 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 68 86 68 82 / 50 30 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 79 63 79 / 40 50 30 20.
An approaching mid-level trough is expected to move into the area overnight into Saturday.
Flat upper ridge overhead this evening will be well east of us Saturday. Northwest winds will increase Saturday, reaching 20-30 mph Saturday evening as a dry cold front moves through.
High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, was providing another day of mostly clear skies, low humidity and relatively cool temperatures for August. Aloft, the flow remained somewhat blocked with a ridge over eastern NE into MN, flanked by low pressure centers over the northern Rockies and eastern Canada. Tonight into Saturday, the surface through 850 mb easterly flow will advect slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures into the forecast area. This may lead to cooler readings tonight than this morning and have advertised lows mainly in the 50 to 55 range. All models have trended toward developing a large upper low over southern Canada by early in the week, leaving a broad cyclonic flow over the Midwest.
624 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 A weak upper low over over the KS-OK-AR-MO four state area with a shear axis extending from OK into MO will meander slowly or remain quasi-stationary through tonight.
Clear conditions will be setting up this evening which should lead to a decent cool down and hedged the lows down just a tad toward or below the cooler guidance numbers. A larger scale trough will be digging across the W.
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 National water vapor imagery showing a low-amplitude trough digging through the northern Rockies this afternoon, with latest surface analysis showing a stalled frontal boundary draped across northern Oklahoma with extension east into southern Missouri. Across our area, light echos are currently noted across our far southern counties, but drier air associated with high pressure across the western Great Lakes is preventing more widespread development from occurring. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 60s across most locations, however a few upper 50s will be possible across near Kirksville and surrounding locations. For tomorrow, models seem to be trending drier and drier as much of the lower Missouri Vly remains smacked between the high pressure off to our northeast and the stalled front to our west.
309 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 A weakening upper low near Yellowstone National Park this afternoon is expected to be swallowed up by an approaching upper trough from the Pacific NW through Saturday.
The best chance will be south of I-40 as cooler and drier air is filtering in across the north.
An upper trough will exit Utah this evening, followed by a stable west to northwest flow aloft early in the weekend.
Any evidence of yesterday's dry air swath has been quickly overrun today by an area of deep moisture associated with a weak low pressure system currently centered off the Miami Beach coast. This low pressure center is forecast to shift west/northwestward overnight, positioning near Lake Okeechobee/FL Everglades by daybreak. A weak low pressure center off the S FL coast has increased moisture across the area, leading to a higher precip coverage tonight and tomorrow. (modified prev) With the approach of the low pressure area to south FL tonight, southeast winds will increase to 10-15 knots near shore and 15-20 knots across the central/srn offshore waters.
1023 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An approaching cold front will move into the region overnight into Saturday.
620 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Our much anticipated cold front is continuing to move slowly south across the middle Mississippi and Tennessee valleys today.
Current satellite analysis depicts the upper high located just off the coast of northern California, with clear skies and fair weather seen over the forecast area.
635 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 1220 PM CDT Dry and cooler conditions will continue through Saturday, and generally for the weekend, though with plentiful sunshine.
Temperatures comfortably drop into the lower 70s. Depending on the intensification of 98L into a tropical cyclone, winds and seas will generally increase as well leading to higher seas.
743 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually drift east over the next few days, with dry conditions extending into the Ohio Valley.
Ridging prevails today but is slowly moving eastward as an upper low approaches from the west. Southwest winds turn southerly gradually overnight and will slowly increase our moisture levels ahead of the approaching H5 trough. Winds will increase as the trough approaches with southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph for Saturday.