Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
KPVW has the highest potential of this occurring tonight and we've added a mention to the TAF to that terminal, with chances lower at KLBB and KCDS. /issued 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/ High pressure remains our dominant feature across the SWRN USA. Today, the center of the high is located across SERN AZ with largely zonal flow across the northern half of the country. A few minor ripples in the embedded flow to our north should still drive a cold front into the region on Friday.
455 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Upper level analysis has fast zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains, with strong upper low over Manitoba. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies into the far northern Plains, with the cold front now south and east of the forecast area. Cooler air will move into the area this morning, with highs only in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Northwest winds behind the cold front will be breezy again across the South Dakota plains at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.
Weak convection today and associated cooling has kept the warm front from redeveloping north of the forecast area as originally expected. However, ridging will once again build into the area overnight and the delayed translation of the warm front into Wisconsin is likely to occur late tonight or Thursday morning as strong insolation should assist in mixing. Clouds and cold advection behind the front should keep temps noticeably cooler Friday.
348 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Generally northerly flow aloft is expected to continue through the next seven days with a nearly stationary upper ridge centered across the southwest United States. 850 millibar temperature forecasts suggest that Friday's high temperatures will be a couple of degree cooler most areas. Friday night appears to be a stormy one as a strong cold front plunges south into the region with a couple of strong upper level disturbances.
Heat indices should reach the lower 90s. All of the high resolution short term models are suggesting suppression of convection through much of the evening and overnight. Heat indices on Thursday expected to rise into the lower 90s. Warm frontal passage and destabilization during the day Thursday sets the stage for more organized convection late Thursday into Friday morning. With sufficient moisture, there is a good chance of locally heavy rainfall and as the cooler air settles in the wake of deeper convection could see a prolonged period of steady rainfall persisting through Friday. Cooler air settles across the region for the weekend and through the mid week. With broad scale westerly flow and trof over eastern NA, reinforcing cool air and occasional short waves cannot be ruled out. Southwest winds will be increasing ahead of a cold front today.
Cold front passage overnight has brought some showers and gusty winds to the region. Upper low over central Canada expected to send a second push of cooler air south of the border today. High pressure pushes into central Montana tonight with enough pressure gradient to bring winds up across the eastern zones on Friday.
Sunny, dry, and cooler today under northwest flow aloft, then a little warmer Friday as H5 heights increase ahead of the next Pacific ridge.
1113 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Upper level analysis has broad but flat ridge across the western CONUS with fast zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extends from western Manitoba through west central South Dakota, around KPHP at 19Z. Better chances for convection will be overnight as a weak upper level disturbance moves across the forecast area pushing the cold front to the east. Cooler air will move into the area during the morning, with highs Thursday afternoon only in the 70s.
453 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Abbreviated discussion once again for ongoing severe convection approaching the highway 14 corridor. In addition, surface inversion is somewhat weak with temperatures hanging in the lower 70s. Storms work out of the region this evening leading to a cooler more tranquil overnight. Dominant feature of the forecast for Friday through the weekend will be cooler temperatures along with very comfortable dewpoints.
The next more significant cold front will push across the northeast plains early Friday morning.
410 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 A weak cold front will stall out just south of Pennsylvania tonight, then return north as a warm front on Thursday.
Widespread convection is expected over the Deep South tonight/Thu as Tropical Cyclone Cindy makes landfall in vicinity of the TX/LA border. Latent heat release assoc/w the aforementioned convection is expected to amplify a ridge downstream over the central Appalachians and portions of NC/VA late tonight. Subsidence attendant the aforementioned ridge should suppress precipitation and result in dry conditions through ~noon. However, strengthening low-level warm advection (from the SW) and MCVs (emanating from upstream convection) lifting NNE into the southern Appalachians will weaken ridging aloft over the region and allow convection to expand NE from upstate SC/southwest NC into portions of central NC Thursday afternoon, primarily the W/SW Piedmont. Expect highs ranging from the lower/mid 80s in the far W/SW Piedmont to lower 90s in the E/NE Coastal Plain. Expect lows in the lower 70s.
Most of the period should be in the more convectively active pattern with higher PWATs and cooler 500mb temps.
and expect this to lift north as a warm front on Monday as another mid-level wave approaches.
1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to influence weather conditions over the region today and tonight. Temperatures will be few degrees warmer today but still below climatological normals for August. Kelly A high pressure center over the Great Lakes will continue to influence weather conditions across the area today and tonight. Initially easterly winds will gradually veer and become southeasterly today as the high pressure center shifts eastward. The southerly component to the wind direction should help afternoon high temperatures rise a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The persistent trough that had been in place for the past couple of weeks over the northeastern CONUS will break down and be replaced by upper-level ridging.
Upper- level ridge to build west across the region through the work week allowing for only isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. However, upper-level ridging will support much warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the mid 90s.
Light showers in eastern Iowa due to 850-700mb warm air and moisture advection will likely remain to the south of the WI/IL border this afternoon and evening due to dry air in the low levels.
An upper ridge will build over the region late in the week with warming temperatures. Biggest issue with these showers and storms will continue to be the threat for brief heavy rainfall, especially with the training storms and the high moisture content in the air.
238 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight then slide south of the region Monday into Monday night.
Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area, leading to hot and humid conditions. Temperatures on Monday may be a few degrees warmer with highs around 105 near Laredo with mid/upper 90s over the Victoria Crossroads.
Tonight and Monday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show upper level low pressure spinning over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota early this afternoon. Showers and storms continue to develop ahead of the low, but remain mainly west of the MN/WI border. As low pressure moves closer to the region, precip chances and trends are the main forecast concerns. More clouds will call for warmer lows, with temps ranging through the 50s.
Upper flow is relatively zonal across the Ohio Valley this morning, with a deep trough located over the Northern Plains. The afternoon looks quiet under partly cloudy skies, with temps warming into the low to mid 80s. This will likely result in warmer lows across southern KY.
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 A cold front will stall across the southern counties of central NC today, and remain quasi-stationary through the middle of the week. Sfc cold front has progressed swd into the Sandhills and southern coastal plain of central NC, a little farther south than anticipated 24 hours ago.
Added the mention of fog for tonight with the system slowly departing the area and a weak ridge axis wrapping down out of Canada. A warm front will set up across the area and we also see a fetch from the Gulf of Mexico develop thanks to a 20-30kt low level jet. By the afternoon, the higher dewpoint airmass will result in MLCAPE values into the 2000-3000j/kg range, though 0-6km shear is only between 15-30kts. The period opens with southwest flow aloft and a trough transitioning into the Plains.
The high latitude flow over North America will remain blocky during the forecast period.
At least one hi-res model suggests this possibility but low levels are relatively dry with dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s or about 20 degrees cooler than expected high temperatures. Otherwise, with the light winds expected today under the influence of high pressure, expect a lake breeze to develop by late morning, and then shift inland across northeastern IL and northwestern Indiana during the afternoon.
347 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure is keeping mild and quiet weather in place for the weekend in the Midwest. The highs are mainly in the upper 70s/near 80 yet again today with fair weather cumulus clouds. Overnight, light and mostly easterly winds as the ridge remains anchored in the region.
250 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 An upper level ridge extending along the Louisiana and Mississippi coastal line is suppressing shower and thunderstorm formation today. Satellite and radar loops show more numerous showers and thunderstorms around the edges of the upper level ridge in Mississippi and in the Louisiana coastal waters. Currently, there is an upper level trough moving through the lower Mississippi Valley.
Highs on Monday look to range through the low to mid 80s. The warmer area will be southern Indiana where no rain is expected.
Still uncertainty on how far east the precipitation will reach this morning as the low level jet does veer into the state.
/issued 335 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017/ South Florida continues under a weak flow pattern surrounding Atlantic high pressure. To our north, a mid-level trough continues to meander along the eastern seaboard of the United States.
High pressure is expected across the area for the next couple of days. Model data suggest heights will gradually build across the area over the next couple of days as upper ridging moves into the Ohio Valley.
The low level jet was focused across western into central Kansas at 08Z and has focused the deeper moisture there. Highs today will reach the low to mid 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. By Monday morning, a subtle weak mid-level ridge will be in place over the central U. with the exiting trough moving northeast of the Great Lakes region and the next mid-level trough diving southeastward into the Pacific Northwest. This weak ridge will quickly break down over the central U.
330 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure over the region will continue to influence the weather over most of the region through tonight.
The cold front has made its way through central Idaho and west-central/northwest Montana. Behind the cold front, much cooler temperatures, high humidities and some light rainfall has been observed.
228 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The flow in the mid and upper levels will become a little more northwesterly in the wake of a short wave trough moving through the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Localized flooding will also be possible as these storms may be efficient rain producers given all of the low level moisture.
Seasonably hot and very humid conditions are still expected today, with forecast highs mainly in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 70s.
High chance PoPs will continue into the weekend as we return to westerly/northwesterly flow (several waves expected) aloft north of the subtropical ridge.
Flow aloft on Monday becomes more southwesterly as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward. CAPEs will still be on the high side across the southeast plains so will have to watch for the potential for a strong storm or two along the dry line.
A cold front is rapidly passing over the forecast area this morning and will be exiting into Idaho by this afternoon. Behind the front will be clearing skies, cooler temperatures and breezy westerly winds. MVFR visibility and ceiling will occUr at KGCD due to rain with cold front. The A cold front will exit the region this afternoon followed by decreasing clouds through this afternoon. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to yesterday. Meanwhile the associated low pressure system with this precipitation is forecast to race across Oregon tonight and take the moisture away from region by Monday. A weak ridge of high pressure will move into our area and provide dry conditions to start the work week with slightly below temperatures.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 kts on Monday, along with diminishing rain chances as high pressure ridge begins to build into the area from the w-sw.
Meanwhile, additional forcing will arrive courtesy of an amplifying s/w trof moving through the region. High temperatures were adjusted downward to reflect more of an unsettled day east of the Ohio River, with the eastern slopes even cooler with the development of low level wedge on southeast flow.
Temps in the north also got a bit cooler than expected, and this was accounted for in the morning temperature curve. | A cold front has moved/transitioned to our southeast. Otherwise, high pressure passing to our north behind the front will be our dominant influence today and tonight, bringing fair weather. The high will move to our east on Monday and winds around it will start to carry moisture back northward. Aloft, a strong high pressure ridge will remain nearly stationary over the Deep South and Gulf Coast through the majority of the extended. A deep upper level low over eastern Canada will keep a troughing pattern in place across much of the northeast conus, becoming less amplified across the Ohio Valley due to the ridging just to our south.
Onshore flow will keep temperatures cool early this week before building high pressure brings a return to increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures late in the week.
At the surface, low pressure is over eastern South Dakota with a warm front lifting into Iowa and a cold front lingering back over south central South Dakota and Nebraska. As the low pressure and cold front moves slowly eastward, will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly over northwestern part of central Iowa this evening and then spreading southeastward toward sunrise. /Monday night through Sunday/ At 500 mb, a weak ridge will approach from the west late Monday, while a broad trough digs slowly down across the Rockies and Pacific coast.
High pressure responsible for the drier air will continue to influence our weather tonight and Monday with dry weather continuing. High temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Previous discussion below: Upper trough continues to move quickly across southern Quebec Province this morning and is enhancing isolated to scattered showers across southern Quebec the northern tiers of New York and Vermont. This activity will continue moving eastward and with upper trough being fairly progressive. High pressure builds in tonight and persist over the area on Monday. Overall little change from previous forecast thinking for the period with high pressure largely dominating at the surface while a closed upper level low over James Bay Monday night slowly tracks southeastward to the Gulf of St.
319 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 A cold front will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to much of the area this afternoon along with a period of gusty winds.
The passage of a cold front will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to northern and central Nevada on Monday. Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler with daytime readings only in the 70s and 80s.
An upper ridge will build over the region late in the week with warming temperatures. The region is between weak upper troughiness over the eastern U. and an east to west elongated upper ridge axis to the south. Maximum temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s today with heat index values around 105. Biggest issue with these showers and storms will continue to be the threat for brief heavy rainfall, especially with the training storms and the high moisture content in the air.
302 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The area will remain situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through the week. The area will remain between an inland trough and offshore high pressure at the surface. High pressure will also build aloft. Deep moisture should persist through the period and in general the best rain chances should be across South Carolina closer to low pressure. Probably the main sensible weather highlight this period will be the high heat index values. Heights aloft will be on the rise through the second half of the week as stronger ridging develops across the Southeast.
A general southerly flow resides over the area as well with the region lying ahead of a lee-side trough again over the Front Range. which has to move eastward and will thus tap into the highly unstable airmass over the CWA. H5 ridging over the region during the day will temper any development of trw thru much the day.
Monday night, the upper level ridge axis will be over the Central Plains an upper level trough axis stretching from southwest MT into ncntrl NV.
146 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Gradual drying today, behind last night's cold frontal passage, will result in increasing sunshine by this afternoon. Monday, as aforementioned high pressure moves to the east coast, a southerly low-level flow will bring an expanding cumulus field into at least our Finger Lakes zones of CNY.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Morning sounding showed all moisture is trapped in the lowest 3000 feet, and this is corroborated by all 12 or 13 clouds that have formed in the region today. H5 ridge will vary little across the area during the next 36 hours, keeping cloud cover to a minimum and keeping temperatures above normal.
457 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Dry and pleasant weather will remain in place across eastern Kentucky today and most of tonight, before an area of low pressure finally brings showers and storms back to the area.
700 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure from the Ohio Valley will build across the region tonight.
Associated cold front is situated out west of our CWA at this time with plenty of shower activity being generated by large scale height falls/vorticity.
Weak high pressure will hold over the area through mid week. High pressure will be in control through tonight.
Temperatures will peak by the end of the week followed by cooler and breezy weather for the upcoming weekend.
151 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017 A developing trough of low pressure near the West Coast will bring stronger onshore flow at the surface and dry westerly winds aloft.
An upper ridge has developed over eastern Montana today, with a cold front extending from an upper low pressure system into the northwestern CONUS and western Montana. This will push the ridge out tonight and dominate our weather through Monday as it pushes across the area. Low temperatures will be mild and should be slightly warmer to the west and southwest, where clouds moving in earlier will prevent as much surface heat loss. The presence of clouds and rain showers will lead to cooler temperatures throughout the day.
In response to a trof moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, ridging/positive 500mb height anomalies that were over western Canada are shifting toward central Canada with the peak anomaly now centered over n central Canada. To the e, a trof remains over eastern Canada into the ne CONUS and northern Plains. Main change has been to drift these anomalies a bit farther n late week, allowing for weak negative height anomalies/troffing to shift from the Rockies mid week to the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS late week and weekend underneath the ridging to the n. Then, progression of the aforementioned trof/negative height anomalies into the Great Lakes later this week will bring the next potential of more organized pcpn in the late Wed to early Thu time frame. Some risk of pcpn will then linger late week with troffiness over the area.
227 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure and dry air will drift east from the Midwestern states, and cross the commonwealth late today and tonight.
123 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure will move slowly east over the next couple of days providing fair weather.
422 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 As a Pacific low pressure trough over British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California moves east into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, west southwest flow aloft will increase across the area bringing pacific moisture and scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight and Monday.
The upper low currently vcnty of Casselton ND will move over the arrowhead of MN by 12Z while the inverted trough extending into the southern valley shifts into central MN. Rainshowers primarily east of the trough axis will move east of area in the 09Z to 12Z timeframe. Upper ridge amplifies over the region on Monday and will see north clear most of the day while southern half thins and becomes scattered by late aftn. Temps should be similar today all areas except SE, where temps will recover into the lower 70s with the precip ending early in the morning.
The low level airmass remained quite damp this morning with southeast low level flow, very low clouds, and nearly saturated conditions with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
High pressure will remain in control across the area through the start of the work week, with dry and pleasant weather expected.
Currently monitoring a cold front slowly working into the region this afternoon.
1153 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Upper trough over the Dakotas early this morning will shift slowly eastward this afternoon. It does appear that by mid to late afternoon, the low level flow will turn more easterly especially over southern parts of SE WY and this combined with the weak mid level impulse nearby will likely set off scattered thunderstorms once again.
310 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 An area of low pressure, along with an upper level trough continues to impact the region with mostly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will build into the region on Monday with mostly dry conditions expected.
1240 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Weak low pressure will produce cooler temperatures Monday with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in northeast California and northwest Nevada.
131 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The upper low spinning over eastern ND is helping to produce some thunderstorms across eastern SD and western MN. Meanwhile, weak ridging with an embedded wave is pushing through MT/WY, resulting in a few showers and storms across central WY. The next trough to affect the region is moving over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure sits over central SD, and a cold front/stationary boundary extends from it south into NE, and back north into WY and MT. Ridge rider will enhance a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight along the aforementioned boundary.
250 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a mid/upper level low circulating over southeast ND, with one last 500mb-300mb vorticity lobe swinging into the James River Valley this afternoon. For tonight, dry weather will commence as a mid/upper level ridge transitory ridge shifts from eastern MT into western ND by 12z Monday.