Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
611 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 The weekend is expected to be cooler, with highs rising into the low to mid 80s. Post-frontal airmass bringing less humid conditions and more comfortable temperatures to the area to begin the short term with morning lows in the low-mid 60s.
/issued 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Dry weather with limited cloud cover will continue to prevail during the period as a result of a broad 500 mb dome of high pressure dominating over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
This may serve to enhance the dewpoints today and perhaps lower the high temperature by a couple of degrees. A weak cold front will push southward into the southern plains through tonight. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler by Sunday in the wake of the front, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. With upslope flow across western Kansas and northwesterly mid and upper level flow, thunderstorms may develop on the high terrain and move into far western Kansas Sunday night.
Will mention to oncoming shift to be on lookout for some funnels under upper low as H700 temps in the 3 to 5 C range. An upper low just west of the tri-border point of ND/Sask/MB (over Estevan, Sask) sinks southeastward through the CWA this morning and exists the southeastern zones by mid- to late afternoon. Cooler H500 lows vcnty of the upper low could help produce some small hail with the stronger storms. Cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass should limit afternoon highs to the upper 70s to right around 80 for most of the area.
547 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A weak cold front will push southward into the southern plains through tonight. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler by Sunday in the wake of the front, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. With upslope flow across western Kansas and northwesterly mid and upper level flow, thunderstorms may develop on the high terrain and move into far western Kansas Sunday night.
Ocean breezes and marine air will keep coastal areas much cooler. A transient trough moving toward the Pacific NW will bring another push of marine air and stratus to the North Coast today.
In the wake of yesterday's frontal passage, seeing a slightly cooler and drier airmass in place, with temperatures already falling below yesterday morning's lows, into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Precipitation chances will then begin to increase from northwest to southeast into the evening and overnight hours as subtle disturbances move through the eastern CONUS trough ahead of an approaching system.
534 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A cold front will bring another round of scattered showers and storms today, along with relief from the heat. Low pressure over the western end of Lake Erie will swing northeastward today, accompanied by a 500mb trough axis and a weakening frontal boundary. Support for lift from the trough and front will bring scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms today, with the best coverage to the north and east of Pittsburgh where better upper divergence is indicated. Precipitation will end during the evening hours as the trough and front pull off to the east, with a good portion of the overnight hours remaining dry.
A ridge remains anchored across the Southwest with a trough across the east coast, keeping NW flow aloft in place. Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s. A cold front moving in Sunday night will keep a few showers and thunderstorms around a little bit longer, but quickly diminish as drier air filters in.
Decreased precipitation chances a bit this morning as the bulk of precipitation is developing east of the area and north more toward the center of the low. Early this morning a cold front, currently just east of Bismarck, was moving east across North Dakota. An upper-level ridge will build over the northern Plains Sunday as a longwave trough approaches from the west. A cold front should arrive in the west Sunday evening.
424 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Sunny skies will allow for warmer conditions across much of the state today. A cold front pushing across the state on Sunday will bring a cool down for central and western Montana.
610 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Decreased precipitation chances a bit this morning as the bulk of precipitation is developing east of the area and north more toward the center of the low. Early this morning a cold front, currently just east of Bismarck, was moving east across North Dakota. An upper-level ridge will build over the northern Plains Sunday as a longwave trough approaches from the west. A cold front should arrive in the west Sunday evening.
526 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as mean upper troughing continues over the NE Pac.
557 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Chances for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon into evening and continue overnight as an upper level disturbance and cold front move into the area. Temperatures will be slightly above normal today with highs in the upper 80s, cooling slightly into the low to mid 80s Sunday behind the cold front. Temperatures should be quite warm today, generally reaching the upper 80s, then cooler air behind the cold front should result in mid 80s and some lower 80s Sunday.
Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and with the building mid level ridge, expect these temps to rise another 10 degrees, with highs topping out in the lower 90s. Northwesterly flow, along with boundary layer mixing, will likely drop dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s by the afternoon. A cold front moving in Sunday night will keep a few showers and thunderstorms around a little bit longer, but quickly diminish as drier air filters in.
927 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Chances for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon into evening and continue overnight as an upper level disturbance and cold front move into the area. Temperatures will be slightly above normal today with highs in the upper 80s, cooling slightly into the low to mid 80s Sunday behind the cold front. Temperatures should be quite warm today, generally reaching the upper 80s, then cooler air behind the cold front should result in mid 80s and some lower 80s Sunday.
Increasing cloud cover this morning will help keep temps from rising too much, still expected to reach the low 90s everywhere.
Continued lows in the low to mid 60s are expected for the Delta breeze influenced area. NBM confidence is high that max temperatures today and Sunday will be in the low 100's across the Valley.
820 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 An exiting low pressure system will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of the region today. Morning Update: Lower the high temperature near the I-80 region. Previous Discussion: A low pressure system over Lake Erie will swing northeast today, accompanied by a 500mb trough axis and a weakening frontal boundary. Support for lift from the trough and front will bring scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms today, with the best coverage to the north and east of Pittsburgh where better upper divergence is indicated. Precipitation will end during the evening hours as the trough and front pull off to the east, with a good portion of the overnight hours remaining dry.
Looking ahead, these storms will exit the region this evening, with a post frontal air mass of cooler and drier weather expected on Sunday as high pressure builds across the region.
Air temperatures are in the low to mid 90s across the area, with heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday due to increased clouds and precipitation. A weak cold front is expected to push through the Mid-South tomorrow evening.
301 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Clouds and precipitation chances increase this evening into tomorrow as a few disturbances moves through the upper level flow associated with the eastern US trough. Dew points rise back into the low 70s with CAPE between 2500-3500 J/kg along with moderate shear, more strong/severe storms are possible.
The low level winds will not be all that great, but storm- relative low level winds will certainly be sufficient enough to maintain supercell structures for at least an hour or two this evening, before storms grow upscale into a larger cluster around/after sunset. No changes were made to the Heat Advisory, as temperatures warmed into the lower to mid 90s across much of the advisory area with very high dewpoints in the lower to even mid 70s degF. The front will continue to push south tonight with weak high pressure building south. The highest dewpoints tomorrow afternoon will likely be across the far southwestern Kansas in the increasing post-frontal upslope that will develop.
High pressure is then expected to build across the area for the start of the work week.
No significant change to the upper pattern is expected during the period, as the upper high pressure system meanders over the region.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night): 500mb subtropical ridge across New Mexico and west Texas will move little through the short term. with dewpoints in the lower 60s west to upper 70s along the coast Sun afternoon.
Dry weather is then expected Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure builds into the area.
With more sunshine and a little m ore moderation of air mass aloft due to southeast flow returning we should have highs in the lower 80s Sunday.
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Chances for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon into evening and continue overnight as an upper level disturbance and cold front move into the area. Temperatures will be slightly above normal today with highs in the upper 80s, cooling slightly into the low to mid 80s Sunday behind the cold front. Temperatures should be quite warm today, generally reaching the upper 80s, then cooler air behind the cold front should result in mid 80s and some lower 80s Sunday.
This rather dominate upper ridge really doesn't exit the picture; rather, it just wiggles, wobbles, expands, and contracts a bit.
A strong upper-ridge will remain centered over AZ and NM today and begin to shift ever so slowly ewd over the next several days.
148 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 An exiting low pressure system will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of the region this afternoon. A low pressure system will continue to advance into southern New York this afternoon.
Temperatures will struggle to rise quickly while dewpoints are this high and cumulus clouds build. Temperatures will eventually rise faster if the higher dewpoints "mix out" to lower values, which should keep the heat indices close to forecast. While this on the high end of what will likely be realized, this shows the potential for some potent thunderstorms that could have the potential to produce strong convective gusts over 40 mph along with frequent cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours. /issued 727 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020/ Gravity wave induced convection currently moving through the lower Pearl River Valley with thunder on station.
This surface ridging is keeping the weather quiet today under mostly sunny skies with passing flat cumulus in place. This is also keeping it cooler and some help from weak northwest flow. Tonight we may see a few more clouds as a cold front approaches from the west, but again these will mostly reside in the mid level.
A cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Sunday with winds remaining breezy.
Winds will be increasing this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper level trough and dry surface cold front, with winds decreasing overnight.
201 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be mainly dry conditions next 24-30 hours with warmer temperatures for Sunday. Currently, tight closed mid level low moving southeast into western Minnesota early this afternoon, with a ridge building over the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Ridge moves east tonight/Sun with the axis over western North Dakota by 12Z Sunday morning and over the central Dakotas Sunday afternoon. 30C degree boundary layer temperatures along a thermal ridge across far western ND/Eastern MT Sunday 21-00Z will develop, and will result in highs there around 90F. Upper level long wave trough approaches from the west later in the day Sunday, transitioning flow aloft to west/southwest and driving a cold front/sfc boundary into western ND Sunday evening and central ND Sunday night/early Mon morning.
High pressure dominates the weather over the CWA this afternoon.
Convection spinning out ahead of the low will be followed by a solid area of rain and embedded convection associated with the low center. Ridging arrives late tonight and early Sunday ahead of the next wave. Short wave itself pushes through in the late night and the trof axis is over the western zones.
329 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight into Sunday as a low pressure system and cold front move into the region.
Summer is in full swing today with temperatures at or near 100 degrees for a lot of the lower valleys. Gusty winds move in later this afternoon with the dry cold front still on track to make its way through the area. Surface winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming southwest to west 10-20 kts this afternoon across southeast Oregon and the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley.
Thus, we have a significant west to east gradient in rain chances: 20% for the Lower Keys and 50% for the Upper Keys, who are much closer to the 2. A splintered western Atlantic ridge will meander near the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida for the next several days.
High pressure building off the Rockies is giving the region a N/NE flow, gusting at times up to 20- 30 mph. Going into Sunday, strong upper ridge remains across the southern portion of the country providing a persistent downslope flow over the area, allowing for yet another hot day for the CWA. Convection is expected to form ahead of the trough from the late afternoon into the evening hrs before tapering off.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure today will bring mostly clear skies to NE Montana. An upper ridge will build over Montana today with warmer temperatures. The ridge will move to the east on Sunday and temperatures will warm into the 90s in most areas ahead of a cold front that will move through the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers and storms may linger over eastern Illinois Sunday morning, though most of the day will be dry and cooler. High pressure will start the work week with dry and seasonable conditions. Scattered showers and storms could percolate late tonight and into Sunday morning, especially over eastern IL with the passage of the mid level trof axis.
The main threat will be wind gusts in excess of 40mph, but given the high CAPE of 2-3k J/kg updrafts within the stronger storms may enhance the weak low level helicity.
Dry weather will persist into this afternoon before a weak cold front brings scattered showers tonight and into Sunday.
While near normal highs are on track this afternoon in the low to mid 90s for most areas, some increased radiational cooling is expected to have lows actually reaching the mid to upper 60s for most areas. Medium-range model guidance has remained mostly consistent run-to-run, with the exception of some drier air over the area during the early parts of the week underneath an upper level ridge building in over the eastern CONUS.
Did insert slim POPs across lower Acadiana for the afternoon as 12z regional soundings showed potentially a little better moisture/lower heights and slightly cooler temps aloft/perhaps a bit more impact from approaching weak disturbance rounding the ridge. Not expecting any restrictions to ceilings or visibility as high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates the region. Area will remain between strong high pressure aloft centered over the four corners area, and a persistent low pressure trof over the eastern CONUS. A warming subsident northerly flow will thus remain, while surface dewpoints will trend on the high side.
141 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Slow moving cold front pushing thru the CWA has triggered a few scattered showers south of the Interstate from Goodland west. Synoptic Overview: WNW flow aloft will prevail over the region, on the NNE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Short- lived as it may be, this change in airmass should be sufficient to offset what would otherwise be additional warming (beneath the amplifying ridge) -- keeping highs in the lower-mid 90s. Sun-Sun night: A moist low-level southerly return flow will develop in Eastern CO/Western KS on Sunday as the mslp gradient tightens between a developing lee trough in Eastern CO and the weak/broad SFC-H85 ridge lingering over Central/Eastern KS.
Ridging aloft overnight leads to subsidence and clearing skies. Sunday is forecast to be a pleasant, near-average summer day, with high temperatures in the low 80s, dew points in the low 60s, and mostly sunny skies.
1126 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as mean upper troughing continues over the NE Pac.
Light southwesterly low-level flow combined with elevated 85h temps and ridging aloft will all help keep this muggy weather in place. Mid/upper level high pressure initially centered off to our west will expand and work its way off to the central parts of the nation. At the surface, onshore winds will persist with high pressure generally situated off to our east. For a majority of the area, the return of any rains will likely hold off until the mid/upper level high gets far enough off to our north to allow for some deeper moisture to work its was westward across the Gulf of Mexico and towards our area. High pressure will keep winds southwesterly to southerly.
What may not be typical for this time of year is the upper level wave and cold front now moving south across northern Missouri and Kansas. The cold front will move through the region tonight with storm chances continuing to just before sunrise Sunday morning for far southern Missouri. Behind the front, a slightly cooler but drier airmass will move into the Ozarks which will feel rather nice and make for a pleasant day.
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 High pressure will prevail over the region through tonight favoring dry conditions. An upper level trough trough of Low Pressure will move southeast from the Great Lakes into the region Sunday sparking showers and thunderstorms for late Sunday afternoon and evening.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Northwest flow on the periphery of a vast upper-level ridge across the southwestern CONUS to maintain hot conditions across the region through the remainder of the weekend.
137 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Upper ridge will hold over the forecast area tonight, then shift E on Sunday, as upper low off the BC coast moves through W Canada. WSW flow overtakes the area on Sunday and a dry cold front will cross most of the area. An inverted trough over SE MT will slow the eastward progression of the front in the afternoon. It should be too dry to support convection, although it cannot be completely ruled out in the high SW mountains in the afternoon.
By Sunday morning, precipitation will come to an end with high pressure building into the region. Will have cooler and drier conditions with highs only in the 80s.
A weak cold front will push southward into the southern plains through tonight. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler by Sunday in the wake of the front, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. With upslope flow across western Kansas and northwesterly mid and upper level flow, thunderstorms may develop on the high terrain and move into far western Kansas Sunday night.
The western Atlantic ridge axis reaches west to Andros.
High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A weak, dry cold front will move into northern Utah late Sunday, bringing a slight cooling trend to the north.
We will remain under northwest flow aloft, situated on the northeast side of a strong southwestern upper level high that has been baking the southwest into Texas as of late. The cold front/trough should be far enough southeast today to keep convection this afternoon southeast of the CWA, although probably a close call in the early afternoon.
There still will be a broad trough across the region, which will support scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. It will be notably cooler on Sunday with highs within a few degrees of 80 at most locations.
High pressure over the region will stay in place this weekend. Most likely it will take another night before there is a decent return of the stratus which will translate into better Delta Breezes and cooler temperatures for the Sacramento region.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be mainly dry conditions next 24-30 hours with warmer temperatures for Sunday. Currently, tight closed mid level low moving southeast into western Minnesota early this afternoon, with a ridge building over the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Ridge moves east tonight/Sun with the axis over western North Dakota by 12Z Sunday morning and over the central Dakotas Sunday afternoon. 30C degree boundary layer temperatures along a thermal ridge across far western ND/Eastern MT Sunday 21-00Z will develop, and will result in highs there around 90F. Upper level long wave trough approaches from the west later in the day Sunday, transitioning flow aloft to west/southwest and driving a cold front/sfc boundary into western ND Sunday evening and central ND Sunday night/early Mon morning.
853 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A low pressure system and cold front affect the region on Sunday.
657 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Cooler and less humid overnight.
432 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Storms this afternoon exit the area by early evening leaving a cooler airmass in place for overnight and tomorrow with overall lower dewpoints. Tonight, northerly flow remains in place which will lead to relatively drier air continuing to advance into the region behind the cold front.
536 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A complex area of low pressure including the tropical remnants of Fay will move across the region through this evening. There still will be a broad trough across the region, which will support scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. It will be notably cooler on Sunday with highs within a few degrees of 80 at most locations.
Storms this afternoon exit the area by early evening leaving a cooler airmass in place for overnight and tomorrow with overall lower dewpoints. Tonight, northerly flow remains in place which will lead to relatively drier air continuing to advance into the region behind the cold front.
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A low pressure system and cold front affect the region on Sunday.
407 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Upper level ridging will build north and east on Sunday and allow for slightly warmer daytime temperatures.
The southern end of a closed low pressure circulation over Canada will bring showers to northwest Montana and gusty winds for all of western Montana on Sunday. Otherwise, Sunday temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
RMS Upper ridge will hold over the forecast area tonight, then shift E on Sunday, as upper low off the BC coast moves through W Canada. WSW flow overtakes the area on Sunday and a dry cold front will cross most of the area. An inverted trough over SE MT will slow the eastward progression of the front in the afternoon. It should be too dry to support convection, although it cannot be completely ruled out in the high SW mountains in the afternoon.
Per mesonet observations, the highest HI so far was 119 deg F near the Red River, in Jefferson County.
We're already seeing several sites with dewpoints in the low 70s.