Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
and Tuesday Satellite showed a potent upper low over west central WI, with a due east track that would take it through central and east central WI this morning. The main deformation band associated with this low, and H8 WAA, was expected to bring a swath of accumulating snow to the region through mid-morning, with the most significant accumulations occurring between Hwy 29 and Hwy 64. The snow should taper off as the upper low shifts east and mid-level drying arrives in the middle to late morning. Despite snowfall totals approaching or locally exceeding advisory criteria in the above-mentioned area, have opted to forgo headlines, as road temperatures remain a little above freezing. High temperatures should range from the middle to upper 30s near Door County, to the lower to middle 40s elsewhere.
A deck of low stratus has continued to build south behind the departing trough. Northwesterly winds will slow and turn southerly mid-day today in response to the next approaching system: a deepening trof embedded in the developing northwest flow.
An active short term period will exist, as a warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. For one, the better moisture advection will be suppressed to our south during the morning and early afternoon hours, and dewpoints look to remain in the low to mid 50s.
648 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 High pressure will move off to the east tonight.
A strong cold front will bring damaging winds and intense snow showers today. Wind: With the high probability that damaging winds in excess of 50 mph will occur across the region, high wind warnings have been hoisted early this morning. One other aspect of this system is how unstable it will become behind the cold front this afternoon.
317 AM PDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Cooler today, but mostly dry conditions for interior northern California then becoming seasonably warm this week.
Seasonable temperatures today, then a strong warming trend starting Tuesday to well above average levels as strong high pressure aloft will dominate our weather. Latest WV/IR satellite imagery shows some mid and high level clouds to the north and west of our forecast area associated with a weak trough that is now pushing east across the state. Not much in the way of significant weather with this trough as it pushes through today but the lower heights will knock temperatures back to seasonable levels. Once the aforementioned trough moves to our east a flat ridge will build in for Tuesday allowing for temperatures to quickly warm to above normal levels. The main weather story for the second half of the week will be the seasonably warm temperatures as strong ridging aloft will be in control.
758 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Dry weather is expected tonight with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature. Another round of rain showers is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north across the region.
Will begin to transition to a warmer, more tropical airmass today as sfc flow veers to the south and eventually southwest. Zonal flow will exist aloft ahead of a positively tilted trough swinging across the southwestern CONUS. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s with high clouds moving through the area. An active short term period will exist, as a warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. For one, the better moisture advection will be suppressed to our south during the morning and early afternoon hours, and dewpoints look to remain in the low to mid 50s.
An upper level low also moves into the Dakotas during the day on Tuesday, drawing cold Canadian air into the northern Plains aloft. That being said, cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and light precipitation in the morning might help lessen those concerns.
An upper Low is currently digging into the northwest Conus, with an associated strong jet. The center of the trof will be quickly moving into the northern plains on Tuesday, leaving Nevada in a northwest flow. Skies will be clearing out, and highs will be cooler, in the mid 40's to mid 50's in northern Nevada and the mid 50's to around 70 in central Nevada.
615 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022 The period starts of with somewhat flat mid-level ridging over the Northern Plains, but that will quickly change. This system will eventually become a closed upper low over the Upper Mississippi valley/western Great Lakes mid-week.
Meanwhile a broad trof approaches from the w. We will hold onto the high wind watch at GDP Mtns, 7h winds turn nw Tue PM, not the optimal direction for high wind. A cold front will enter into the nrn CWFA btwn 06Z-09Z/Wed bringing with it windy conditions.
Very gusty winds have developed across eastern Oregon and the higher terrain this afternoon. Gusty winds will become widespread late this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the area. Showers will be more confined to the mountains after midnight, with only isolated to scattered showers in the lower elevations. Winds will subside Tuesday night and skies will clear, setting the stage for lows dropping below freezing in all locations.
Byrd Active pattern will persist through the end of the work week as the deep upper low over the Upper Midwest slowly tracks to the east during this period.
Weak high pressure over SW IA moves across the area tonight into Tuesday morning.
Mid level wave will move through the Dakotas overnight dragging a cold front through into the morning hours.
A cold front will cross through the area late tonight as the system moves into the Northern Plains. The airmass will be very dry with dew points likely falling into the single digits as dry air advects east off the higher terrain to the west.
Weak low pressure and its associated cold front to the west will continue to weaken as they move east into this evening.
The highest risk for severe weather will be for AEX.
Rain will become widespread Tuesday night as thunderstorms develop along a cold front. A cold front has reached from Champaign to Shelbyville on its' way into southern Illinois, as the parent low pressure progresses across southern Lake Michigan and lower Michigan. Tuesday night will feature our most active weather of the week, as a warm front/cold front combo progress across Illinois.
The influence of high pressure ridging will remain dominant through today with mostly clear skies and predominantly dry weather, with increased cloud cover building in tonight and into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will continue to move off to the east causing the prevailing flow to shift about to be more out of the southwest by early Tuesday morning bringing in moist air and rising humidity levels. Temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 80s for inland areas this afternoon and in the mid to upper 70s for areas along the coast.
Patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Tuesday behind a weak cold front.
The period starts of with somewhat flat mid-level ridging over the Northern Plains, but that will quickly change. This system will eventually become a closed upper low over the Upper Mississippi valley/western Great Lakes mid-week.
Late tonight, a warm front will creep northward into the area bringing with it a chance of precipitation. By late tomorrow evening into the overnight hours, the first system will exit out of the area but will be followed quickly by a larger trough system moving in from the NW towards the end of the short term period.
Quiet weather is expected today as plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to reach into the lower to mid 80s.
Light east to southeasterly winds this afternoon will help aid in upslope flow keeping temperatures on the cooler than average side in the low to mid 60s. The gradient will continue to strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front that will invade the northwestern counties just after sunrise and push southeast by early afternoon.
257 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 An upper-level trough axis is across the Keys. Southeast to south winds average 3 to 12 knots along the Reef, with Carysfort the highest. Southeast breezes will freshen overnight as the subtropical ridge organizes over the western North Atlantic.
The trough feature is also producing some breeziness for the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temperatures will also ramp up over the coming days as an amplified ridge builds across the western US.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated an area of low pressure near Sheboygan tracking east. A weak ridge of high pressure extended from the central Plains north into the Upper MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery showed plenty of clouds rotating around the low pressure with patchy fog over eastern WI. The combination of this low-level moisture and light winds should allow fog to develop from late evening onward with some of this fog becoming locally dense during the pre-dawn hours. Max temperatures to range from the lower to middle 40s north, middle to upper 40s south except lower 40s lakeside.
* Cooler Wed-Fri, warm-up by the weekend. and the second along the cold front from generally east-central KS west/southwest into central and south-central KS. Along the cold front during the late afternoon-evening along/southeast of the KS Turnpike.
430 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Dry weather is expected tonight before a warm front lifting north into the MGW, WV portion of the forecast area will bring a slight chance of rain toward dawn. The aforementioned warm front will lift through the middle of the forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
229 PM MDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Damaging winds and intense snow showers continue as the main impacts into Tuesday: Damaging Winds: A cold front and mountain wave enhanced winds will continue to bring a high potential for gusts in excess of 50 mph for much of the Northern Rockies well into this evening. Snow: Behind the cold front this afternoon there will be transition to an unstable atmosphere with periodic heavy snow showers/snow squalls as snow levels drop to valley floors. Southwest Montana is also a concern with the cold front late this afternoon as high-res models show a squall line developing with sudden ice and snow accumulations, even in the valleys. Additionally, there is a potential for brief accumulations in the lower valleys area wide, mainly on Tuesday morning.
Strong thunderstorms are forecast to develop over west-central Oklahoma, near the Red River, this afternoon in association with approaching upper level trough. (Tuesday through Monday) Upper low will move out of the northern Plains on Tuesday, pushing a strong cold front through the area Tuesday night.
The pattern shifts gears on Tuesday, becoming warmer, much drier, and breezier, which has led to elevated to near critical Fire Weather concerns for Tuesday afternoon/early evening.
Water vapor imagery highlights an upper level trough axis just to our west, with 30 m 300 and 200 mb height falls sampled by this morning's KKEY RAOB. From synopsis, high pressure moving from the Mid Atlantic states into the western Atlantic will bring gradually freshening southeast breezes this afternoon and tonight, with breezes peaking on Tuesday.
Major cold front is approaching and will sweep through during the overnight hours. The wind shift to west and northwest by 05/12Z should provide some sheltering for the north end of the Snake River plain, which would mean the High Wind Warning could be canceled in this region first, but the eastern Magic Valley and the highlands to the south are still very much under the gun still on Tuesday morning. Combined with the high wind and the blowing snow, the Winter Storm Warning and surrounding Winter Weather Advisories are likely OK and still a high confidence they will verify. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop considerably, as much as 10 to 15 deg F from today's highs. Wind will not be as strong Wed-Thu with high pressure and clear skies returning.
344 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Dry high pressure slides offshore tonight.
1134 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. An upper low will settle over the region towards the weekend. Dry air in place with some 10 degree dew point depression at the base of the ridges in the eastern forecast area will hinder measurable rainfall. Dry weather is expected tonight before a warm front lifting north into the WV portion of the forecast area will bring a slight chance of rain towards dawn. The mentioned warm front will lift through the middle of the forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
* Powerful cold front plows through the region late Tues. A synoptic cold front has slowly pushed its way through the state of Kansas as post-frontal showers and storms continue across far southern and southeast Kansas early this morning. Chances for additional showers and storms will continue for portions of southeast Kansas as moisture is pulled northward out ahead of a weak trough passing through the southern plains later today.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 67 55 79 49 / 10 100 40 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 67 55 80 50 / 10 90 50 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 48 65 53 78 47 / 10 90 50 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 69 53 79 51 / 10 90 70 20 80.
Then weak sfc ridging follows for late tonight and the winds become light or calm.
Gusty winds will continue into the day Tuesday, as the trough buckles and sweeps east. As the trough exits to the east Tuesday evening, the general wind flow becomes more northwesterly.
102 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. An upper low will settle over the region towards the weekend. Dry air in place with some 10 degree dew point depression at the base of the ridges in the eastern forecast area will hinder measurable rainfall. Dry weather is expected tonight before a warm front lifting north into the WV portion of the forecast area will bring a slight chance of rain towards dawn. The mentioned warm front will lift through the middle of the forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
/28/ Quiet weather is expected today as plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to reach into the lower to mid 80s.
Thus, have increased PoPs across that area a little bit, with the highest rain chances PoP (30-50 percent) occurring from Lake Kissimmee to Vero Beach southward. Local guidance has some disagreement about afternoon temperatures, with the NBM and Superblend being a tab bit cooler than the MAV and a few of the other models. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s.
109 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 High pressure will remain entrenched across the region through much of Tuesday which will bring mostly sunny skies with little to no chance of precipitation.
- Warmer weather on the horizon for the weekend. Current water vapor imagery shows the tight cyclonic spiral of the recent weather maker moving off to the Great Lakes, an upstream ridge over the Northern Plains, and an atmospheric river impacting the Pacific Northwest. This ridge provides a temporary reprieve from precipitation tonight while the zonal 180 kt upper level jet streak associated with the PNW atmospheric river digs and amplifies over the western CONUS--resulting in a quasi- stationary trough axis lingering over the Midwest for much of the work week. 0 deterministic guidance utilizing the higher percentile groups based on high resolution model soundings.
A complex low pressure system crosses mid to late week. Temperatures tonight will be warmer, ranging in the low to mid 40s with cloud cover and a warmer air mass in place.
A very compact and small middle and upper low currently over OK/TX will gradually move through AR and end up near Nashville TN shortly afternoon on Tuesday. In advance of this low, warm advection showers will be displaced slowly northward along the low level warm front. As the back end of this low moves east of the area by midday Tuesday, dry air advection aloft will entrain over the area. By midnight Tuesday night, the leading edge of the approaching upper trough over the upper Plains and Midwest will bring the next chance of rain to southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri. Within the low amplitude shear axis and thermal gradient with the approaching cold front, anticipate some pre-frontal convection developing during the morning and midday hours on Monday, coincident with increasing CAPE (up to 500 j/kg2) and 35-50 knot low level shear.
130 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. An upper low will settle over the region towards the weekend. Dry air in place with some 10 degree dew point depression at the base of the ridges in the eastern forecast area will hinder measurable rainfall. Dry weather is expected tonight before a warm front lifting north into the WV portion of the forecast area will bring a slight chance of rain towards dawn. The mentioned warm front will lift through the middle of the forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
Overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, a deep low pressure system will track across the ArkLATex region. An MCS will start organizing ahead of the front associated with the deep trough overnight over central MS. However, if there is sufficient forcing ahead of the warm front, it is possible that storms could develop some large hail due to steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE values around 300-500 J/kg across north-central MS. Wrapping around to the back side of the low, widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms will permeate the rest of the Mid-South through just after noon.
High pressure aloft will settle across the area through the rest of the work week.
Rain will become widespread Tuesday night as thunderstorms develop along a cold front. A cold front has reached from Champaign to Shelbyville on its way into southern Illinois, as the parent low pressure progresses across southern Lake Michigan and lower Michigan. Tuesday night will feature our most active weather of the week, as a warm front/cold front combo progress across Illinois.
827 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Dry weather is expected tonight before a warm front lifting north into the MGW, WV portion of the forecast area will bring a slight chance of rain toward dawn. The aforementioned warm front will lift through the middle of the forecast area during the day on Tuesday.
A cold front has reached from Champaign to Shelbyville on its way into southern Illinois, as the parent low pressure progresses across southern Lake Michigan and lower Michigan. Tuesday night will feature our most active weather of the week, as a warm front/cold front combo progress across Illinois.
A very compact and small middle and upper low currently over OK/TX will gradually move through AR and end up near Nashville TN shortly afternoon on Tuesday. In advance of this low, warm advection showers will be displaced slowly northward along the low level warm front. As the back end of this low moves east of the area by midday Tuesday, dry air advection aloft will entrain over the area. By midnight Tuesday night, the leading edge of the approaching upper trough over the upper Plains and Midwest will bring the next chance of rain to southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop over the Atlantic waters overnight as a warm front lifts north through the area. A warm front lifts north of the area by tomorrow morning, putting east central FL into the warm sector. Favorable boating conditions with east winds 10-15 knots becoming southeast overnight as a warm front lifts north through the area.
Weak warm front remains in place over our northern counties as well at this hour, with temperatures in the upper 50s along the KY border, but in the 60s and 70s to the south. Thick cloud cover should keep low temps up somewhat overnight, and current forecast lows may be on the high side but most areas should still drop into the 50s. A low pressure system will move south of the area tomorrow bringing showers and rain to the terminals.
As high pressure moves into the Atlantic, winds will become southeast and south and increase to 15 to 20 knots by mid day Tuesday.
Further south, a cold front and band of convergence and moisture has increase diurnal cumulus across central Indiana, and this should gradually diminish through the evening. Late tonight, a warm front will creep northward into the area bringing with it a chance of precipitation. By late tomorrow evening into the overnight hours, the first system will exit out of the area but will be followed quickly by a larger trough system moving in from the NW towards the end of the short term period.
Occluded cyclone continues to swirl acrs the western GRT LKS, with wrap around CU field hanging on tough acrs much of the CWA. Will gradual dissolve or mix out the stubborn wrap-around CU field acrs the CWA as a bout of short wave upper ridging gets pressed acrs the region, but much of it may linger toward midnight. Most solutions in good agreement of suggesting the upper low to close and organize acrs the Dakotas into Tue evening, spilling cyclonic curved mid level southwesterlies acrs the mid to upper MS RVR Valley.
742 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 Dry high pressure will slip offshore tonight.
A period of messy weather will begin to unfold tonight as a warm front lifts north across the region, followed by a cold front tomorrow morning. After midnight, convection should come to somewhat of a lull before the next round of showers and thunderstorms begins tomorrow morning as the cold front moves through.
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered east of the Carolinas, with a warm front lifting northward through central Florida. The Keys lie within a tightening pressure gradient along the southwestern flank of the high. Aloft, fast westerly flow continues across the Gulf of Mexico, but the Keys are now in an area of large-scale descent, between a trough exiting east of the Bahamas and the next upstream trough over Texas. Although MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery depicts an axis of above-normal PWs lingering across the Keys and South Florida, the 00Z Key West sounding shows initial indications of low-level ridging building north from the Caribbean into our area, with drying through the low levels.
340 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 The High Wind Watch across wrn and ncntl Nebraska will be converted to a High Wind Warning with start times as early as noon CDT today across wrn Nebraska where deep vertical mixing will tap into strong winds aloft.
244 AM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Upper trough/low moves through NE Montana today. However, the trough will also bring an area of moisture convergence to Valley, northern Phillips Counties and SW Saskatchewan. With the High Wind Warning in effect for parts of this area at this time, will hold off on issuing an advisory at this time. The precipitation will gradually diminish Wednesday afternoon and evening as the low moves to the east.
415 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through much of today which will bring mostly sunny skies with little to no chance of precipitation.
410 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Low pressure shifting east across the Tennessee Valley will bring rain showers across the region today. Dry weather will continue tonight as the Ohio Valley is positioned under a building ridge just ahead of a much stronger northern stream system located over the upper Midwest. Guidance has been fairly consistent with timing the cold front associated with this system through the local area Wednesday afternoon through early evening. Best chance of storms will be in northeast Kentucky through the lower Scioto River Valley as SBCAPE of around 500J/kg (per 12km NAM) noses north just ahead of the front. Plenty of effective shear combined with this low-end instability requires some mention of organized convection, which matches marginal risk on SPC's Day 2 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.