Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Can't rule out some patchy frost in our northwest zones near Harlowton and the Crazy mountains which are typically the cooler spots. Canadian cold front has dropped through the region, bringing cooler temps. Rh values are slightly higher than previous days due to cooler temps.
This evening's surface analysis showed a cold front moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, and a weak area of high pressure across the Southeast.
211 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018 Synoptic Setup: Center of the Arctic air lies over the Hudson Bay with a trough extending southwest through the southern Canadian Prairies and into the Pacific Northwest where it becomes more Pacific like.
303 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 The amplification of a western trough and eastern ridge will coincide with the transport of very moist air into northern Texas and Oklahoma through Monday.
A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned southern Plains low is progged to move into the northern parts of the state on Tues. A pocket of drier air circulating around an upper level ridge and moving over SE TX, along with these stronger wind speeds could allow for a short break in dense fog conditions allowing visibilities to improve temporarily Monday morning.
Water vapor imagery shows a pocket of drier air in the mid-levels propagating around an upper level ridge and moving towards the upper Texas coast this afternoon.
1247 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. Much of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing across the higher terrain. Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area. There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much moisture moves into the area.
1104 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Low pressure moving to the south of the state this morning will bring light snow to the area into the mid morning hours. High pressure builds in tonight.
Cold air intruding from the north should negate chances of freezing drizzle in southern ND this afternoon. Added mention of a chance of freezing drizzle southwest and south central this morning. Freezing drizzle began at Bismarck.
255 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure will move off the East Coast on Monday. An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast this week.
1104 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 Added mention of a chance of freezing drizzle southwest and south central this morning. Freezing drizzle began at Bismarck.
254 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 Upper level southwesterly flow has set up across the region and will remain in place through the forecast period thanks to the continued southward digging of an upper level Pacific trough to our west.
1147 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 Added mention of a chance of freezing drizzle southwest and south central this morning. Freezing drizzle began at Bismarck.
With the high moisture content, patchy fog continues to affect a few sites as well with MVFR/IFR vsbys prevailing with limited mixing in the low levels. Cooler surface temperatures were overspread by more Southwest flow aloft which will keep the area in a wet weather pattern.
1159 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Low pressure moving to the south of the state this morning will bring light snow to the area into the mid morning hours. High pressure builds in tonight.
1258 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will lift north as a warm front tonight into Monday morning.
104 PM PST Sun Feb 18 2018 An Arctic cold front will bring gusty north winds and occasional snow showers through this evening. JW 18Z TAFS: An unstable air mass, arctic front, and area of low pressure sagging through the region will bring bands of convective snow showers through early evening along with gusty north to northeast winds into Monday.
355 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 Warm temperatures will continue to be the rule across the area thanks to a pretty pronounced high pressure over the Atlantic. This ridge should keep us fairly dry from frontal boundaries for the next few days. Onshore flow around the high will keep moisture in the atmosphere and a few stray convective showers cannot be ruled out any day this week. The high over the Atlantic should keep our area out of the heaviest rainfall, but the placement and the ultimate position of the frontal boundary will still need some tweaking over the next few days.
A warm front will lift northward tonight. Breezy and warmer conditions will round out the tail end of the taf period.
Temperatures will be cooler today than yesterday by about 10 degrees, and a much colder airmass will move into the region tonight behind another cold front. Showers and wind gusts to 40 mph are accompanying a cold front, which is oriented west-east just to the south of Boise. Elsewhere, snow showers will accompany an upper trough as it settles into the region. Another cold front will cross the region from the north tonight and bring modified arctic air to the region on Monday.
221 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018 A cold upper level low pressure system in place over the western United States will maintain cloudy and very cold conditions across the northern Rockies and Montana through Monday with generally light snow decreasing to flurries later tonight through Monday.
939 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018 Approaching upper trough is providing light lift and despite cold air deepening over the region enough ascent in place to generate snowfall across the region. Snowfall is expected to persist through much of Monday, before an upper trough moves overhead causing snow to slide east of the area. Additional snowfall from today through Monday will range from 3 to 6 inches across much of the lower elevations (lesser totals towards Miles City and Baker), to 4 to 8 inches for the Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills, to 6 to 14 inches for the mountains. Highs today will be in the lower teens for many areas, with temperatures struggling to make it above zero on Monday as the arctic air deepens.
226 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018 Upper level analysis has large trof and associated low digging into the Pacific Northwest, with fast west southwest flow across the Northern Plains.
1032 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 The 12Z CRP sounding showed drier mid/upper levels with the moisture confined to the lowest levels below a capping inversion.
Clearing has occurred in the Florida Keys from east to west during the last few hours, and the highest temperatures of the day likely will be reached during the next few hours. This rain-and-cloud cluster is associated with a weak trough at the nose of a deepening belt of easterlies south of an expanding low-level anticyclone.
342 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 The low pressure system/cold front has been able to sink southeast of the forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures slowly falling throughout the day behind this boundary. The 500mb low deepening over the Pacific Northwest will push a large trough across the western half of the nation tonight into Monday morning, with plenty of moisture overspreading the area. The boundary south of the region will be continuing to drop south, so will lean toward the southern parts of the CWA likely seeing the highest amounts of snow.
124 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will lift north as a warm front tonight into Monday morning.
337 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 A warm front has been moving north across the forecast area today in response to deepening southerly flow over the region and as of 3 pm or 18/21Z has pushed out of Southeast Texas and just about out of Central Louisiana. Rua The battle for this week will be between the upper level sub- tropical ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico, and a deepening broad upper level trough over the middle and western US.
244 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure will crest south of the area tonight then move to the east on Monday.
237 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure moves east tonight. Warm front Monday. Then, cold front midweek brings showers and storms. High pressure crosses overhead this afternoon providing clear skies and warm temperatures into the lower 50s lowlands, ranging to the mid 40s higher elevations. As the high pressure moves east of the mountains, flow will turn southwest bringing a warm front with its associated warmer and moist air to our area. The areas of pcpn will tapper off from south to north Monday allowing plenty of sunshine and temperatures to climb into the lower 70s lowlands, ranging to the mid 50s higher elevations.
111 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A warm front will then lift northward tonight into Monday bringing a return of precipitation to the region. Temperatures will range from the lower 40s north to near 50 south of the Ohio River. Additional rain chances will move in overnight and then push northwards on Monday associated with a warm frontal boundary and increase in moisture.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The 500 mb trough axis will be digging south and east across the western portion of the lower 48 states throughout the short term period. Meanwhile to our east 500 mb ridging will build over the southeastern states, Gulf states and the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow night. As the western trough digs south and east, the low pressure system developing over the central plains states will increase the PGF over the RGV boosting the surface winds today and Mon. The deep layer moisture advection ahead of this digging 500 mb trough will remain confined generally to the north and west of Deep South TX.
245 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018 The main short term concerns are the critical fire weather conditions continuing into early this evening along with the minor possibility of light freezing drizzle working into the northern sections after midnight. But with a very dry airmass above the colder and nearly saturated layer, there is a possibility of light freezing drizzle. Have kept an area of freezing drizzle in across the north overnight as a result with a slight modification to the favored area of occurrence.
Cold and dry air from the interior of western Canada will spread across Western Washington this afternoon and evening, and a cold upper low will exit.
322 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 A warm front will approach from the south late tonight, and rain will overspread the area Monday morning.
This would be most noteable over the higher terrain of the north-central U. A low pressure system approaching from the Plains will cause deteriorating conditions tonight through Tuesday as snow and lower cloud cover develop.
252 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Upper level low pressure trough will swing through northeast Montana tonight, continuing snowfall south of the Missouri River, while modified arctic air streams in out of Canada.
244 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A cold front will stall over southern North Carolina this evening then lift back north tonight and Tuesday.
The nearly flat northern periphery of large warm core ridging centered over Southern MX, reaches much of Texas and the other Northern Gulf Coast States, with the eastern periphery of the ridging reaching near the Western Florida Peninsula. A slowly moving cold frontal boundary is located from near the Tidewater southwest to Central Texas. Temperatures across the islands have reached into the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
Looking for the current Red Flag warning to drop on schedule as the cooler temps with sunset will bring up humidity values over the affected zones. lows tonight will range from the mid 20s thru the lower 30s. Northwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the week as a ridge gradually rebuilds over the Great Basin.
Water Vapor imagery showing a weak mid-level trough rippling northeast through the Dakotas into northern MN. Could see a wintry mix across portions of northeast IA into far southwest WI with maybe some patchy freezing rain and light glazing after midnight.
337 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday.
A cold front will be racing southward entering our northern zones near or just after daybreak Tuesday with windy northerly flow while surface pressure rises around 10 millibars per three hours press southward into the Panhandle.
Main highlight will focus on the marginal to slight risk of strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region. Hazard window will end north to south through the evening as cooler and drier air moves in for mid week.
1028 AM PDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A vigorous low pressure system will bring rain and snow showers to the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades today.
224 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A stationary front will lift northward across the region as a warm front tonight.
South winds will increase and become gusty overnight, with a wind shift to the northwest Tuesday morning across eastern OK as another cold front sweeps through. Winter weather headlines have expired at 10 am with temps at or above freezing areawide.
205 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 The dryline has moved into the western PB to w of FST and is expected to make a strong push ewd mid afternoon with the low- level thermal ridge amplifying sharply along with downslope winds of 20-30 mph within the dry air. Said cold front will surge south nearing the PB I-20 corridor around 18Z-21Z. Surface anticyclone will build in Wed AM making for a cool morning, widespread 40s, 35-40 possible n of I-20. It will turn warmer Thur underneath dry nw flow aloft. Meanwhile yet another cold front will be set to arrive Fri PM and temps will likely turn colder or hold steady in mid afternoon (n of I-20) with potentially strong cold air advection.
Warm front is slowly lifting north across the Mid- South and was located from Savannah TN to NW Mississippi at 3 pm. Warm front will lift through the remainder of the area this evening. A few showers will be possible along and north of the warm front overnight with a possibility of a thunderstorm along the KY/MO borders. A potent 500 mb trough will push a strong cold front east into the region. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front by the afternoon hours and quickly form into a line an intensify as it moves into NE Arkansas. The wind profile becomes increasingly unidirectional as the cold front approaches though there is some slight veering in the lowest km.
/issued 940 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ Water vapor imagery shows zonal flow aloft over the region this morning, with a weak cold front sagging over the region. The weak cold front is currently along the Arkansas and Louisiana border back towards Marshall and Jacksonville, Texas. Otherwise, expect relatively mild conditions to prevail across our northern areas, with warmer than normal and somewhat muggy conditions prevailing across the southern areas. Main forecast concern for this forecast period will be with the threat of severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a more potent cold front moves through the region.
Zonal flow continues aloft while high pressure at the low and mid levels shifts east. This will lead to a continued increase in moist southerly flow at the lower levels. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer, ranging around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most places.
218 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure will briefly build over the area this afternoon with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny.
1127 AM PDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A vigorous low pressure system will bring rain and snow showers to the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades today.
400 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 An area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region tonight. This area of high pressure will remain in place on Tuesday bringing dry conditions to many locations. Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the upper 80s across interior sections.
A warm front will lift north and into the Ozarks Region tonight as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the central High Plains. Meanwhile the primary upper level trough will track from the northern Rockies and dig into the central U. Strengthening synoptic scale lift in association with an intense upper jet will result in increasing coverage of showers and storms along and behind the advancing cold front late tonight into Tuesday. While much of the precipitation looks to be focused just along and behind the cold front Tuesday, deeper convection will develop ahead of the front as the front progresses eastward and and upper level trough approaches. Strong to possibly severe storms could develop ahead of the advancing cold front later Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri.
As a result, the weak cold front is starting to lift back to north, as gusty south winds develop across the region. Otherwise, the main forecast concern for this forecast period continues to be with the threat of severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a more potent cold front moves through the region.
Fortunately temps have warmed several degrees or more above freezing. So, any precip that occurs will be in the liquid form and am not expecting any freezing rain. A warm front associated with the approaching system will bring this over-running precip this evening and should increase in coverage during the overnight hours. As the low pressure area lifts northeast across the area, showers and isolated storms will continue during the morning and early afternoon hours, but mainly in the east and southeast; east and south of the low track. Temps will be warmer tomorrow, but based on path of weather system, warmest temps will be in southeast half of the area, with lower temps to the northwest. however all still above freezing.
146 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure over the Southeastern States will weaken Tuesday.
Gusts at all terminals will curtail after sunset, but remain breezy overnight ahead of a cold front with stronger winds by late Tue morning.
303 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Main challenge in the short term will be temperatures through tomorrow, and resultant potential for freezing drizzle or freezing mist north of the freezing line. While little to no cooling is expected overnight, portions of northern MO may not make it to freezing this evening and could hover there for the overnight period. Precipitation tonight should be mainly southeast of the below-freezing areas, but will still need to monitor the potential for freezing fog or light freezing drizzle as moisture advection continues. A few showers may develop as the low-level jet and isentropic lift increases overnight; the best potential will be across central MO where lift is the strongest. Lingering light rain showers are possible through early morning, then a cold front will sweep any remaining precipitation out of the forecast area on Tuesday.
MOS guidance was fairly consistent in lowering ceilings into IFR overnight but concerned that strengthening southerly flow as a lee cyclone ejects across the Central Plains overnight may be too strong for ceilings to lower beyond MVFR. /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ A nearly stalled warm front has drifted northward to the northern edge of our area of responsibility. This has allowed locations like Bryan/College Station, Madisonville, and Crockett - which had been in the lower 60s just a couple hours ago - to surge into the lower to middle 70s.
As the trough moves east a cold front will push south towards area. Moisture will begin pooling over the region ahead of the cold front. As the upper level trough and jet moves into position overhead anticipate more convection to develop across the region ahead of the cold front. With respect to temperatures, tonight into tomorrow similarly warm conditions will persist with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s and highs in the low 80s to low 90s. In wake of the cold front tomorrow night will be much cooler, with low in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
224 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Weak high pressure will bring dry conditions today. Showers will return tonight as a warm front brings warmer temperatures. A cold front will sweep through the area Tuesday night bringing a line of thunderstorms and a return of below normal temperatures. In response to the digging energy a warm front and isentropic lift begins to develop in Kentucky and lifts north over the entire region. The cold front is forecast to swing through the region Tuesday night.
424 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Strong cold front to push south across the Panhandles late tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the north 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts near 50 to 55 mph following the passage of the cold front.
Winds will then switch to the north and increase into the 25 to 30 knot range with higher gusts behind a cold front before sunrise. Gusts will drop off between 03Z and 08Z but pick back up early tomorrow morning behind a cold front that swings winds northerly. For today, a sfc trof will deepen rapidly along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The overall strongest southwest winds are expected to occur over the western half of the area where the highest terrain is found. The associated strong sfc cold front will blast southward across the OK and TX Panhandles late tonight and early Tuesday morning with strong north winds and sharply cooler temperatures in its wake.
Still expect a surface boundary near the Alabama border to move northward as a warm front this afternoon, likely reaching the I-40 corridor by 21z or so. A warm front will lift northward across the Mid-State this afternoon and tonight, with ceilings gradually improving from a mix of IFR and MVFR ahead/north of the front, to MVFR and, eventually, VFR behind/south of the front. A strong cold front will approach from the west after 12z, leading to a redevelopment of MVFR ceilings in the moist air mass ahead of the front.
148 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure will build across the region today into Tuesday. Low pressure will also track well south of the area today.
417 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A cold front will stall over southern North Carolina this evening then lift back north tonight and Tuesday.
A cold front will sweep through Tuesday night. Significant shear will present given the strength of the low level jet, although with main band looking likely to come through well after sunset appears convective energy will be limited.
307 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 An approaching warm front will bring rain back into the region for Tuesday.
250 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A strong upper level low pressure was spinning across Idaho and western Montana this afternoon and will shift southeast onto the Plains late tonight. Will need to monitor the trends and if any of the high resolution models pick up and become more consistent on a small organized band of heavier snow we might need a small warning as winds will likely be gusting to around 35 mph at times. Do expect some falling temperatures through the day as the low pressure moves east.
651 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 An approaching warm front will bring rain back into the region for Tuesday.
255 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 (Tonight and Tomorrow) Cold front is draped just south of our CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will remain steady or even rise after midnight as the warm front surges north across the area. The next strong cold front is forecast to sweep across the CWA by the late morning and early afternoon.
During the morning hours, a cold front is expected to drop across the Panhandles and bring strong northerly winds. /Issued 424 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ Strong cold front to push south across the Panhandles late tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the north 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts near 50 to 55 mph following the passage of the cold front.
Models have slowed down a bit with cold fronts arrival and now dont bring notable winds into the area til 05z or 06z. High temperatures look to range from the low to mid 40s north to around 50 south.