Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Pacific ridge parks over our area the majority of the week. However a trough in far northern Canada will keep the ridge from amplifying to its true potential keeping things aloft in a zonal flow. Regardless this flattened ridge will keep things dry and temperatures about 10-15 degrees above normal. By the end of the week that Canadian trough has departed and the ridge will be able to amplify more and push our temperatures even warmer.
It may well wind up just being some little clouds clinging to the ridges. The current forecast has lows near the colder GFS MOS guidance which looks good and highs near the guidance about 10-15 degrees warmer on Monday. An upper ridge over the area Monday evening will slowly move southeast, with a good surface pressure gradient in place along the foothills.
525 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Settling in for a fairly quiet night, as additional upper energy falls into the trough moving into the Great Lakes. This will push a reinforcing backdoor cold front southward into the area by late night. Tell-tale sign of elevation wind event showing up in most solutions with the downridge pressure troughing, with winds likely gusting to at least 30 to 35 mph in the favored zones downstream of the ridge crest.
Satellite info is showing clouds riding over a ridge in the pacific northwest moving southward across the NR. Clouds coverage will diminish after midnight as the ridge in the Pacific Northwest builds over the region.
518 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The main feature on the 500mb chart this morning was a trough of low pressure which extended from southwestern Minnesota into northern Arizona.
409 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Upper trough axis extended from the Upper Midwest through the Central Plains and Four Corners. A upper ridge was building northward along the Pacific Coast. As a result, the start time of the High Wind Warning was changed to 1 PM this afternoon. Upper ridge slides east across the Intermountain West and Rockies Monday.
201 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Upper trough axis extended from the Upper Midwest through the Central Plains and Four Corners. A upper ridge was building northward along the Pacific Coast. As a result, the start time of the High Wind Warning was changed to 1 PM this afternoon. Upper ridge slides east across the Intermountain West and Rockies Monday.
/Issued 202 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/ Cold front has cleared the forecast area, with the severe weather threat shifting east for the remainder of the day. Moisture won't be suppressed too far south, with a northward return forecast for later Monday ahead of the approaching upper low.
506 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 (This evening through Monday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was situated just south of a San Angelo to Brady line. An upper level low will approach from the west tonight, and move across the area on Monday. (Monday night through next Sunday) On Monday night the upper low will move northeast, from the northwestern part of Texas into far southern Oklahoma. With north winds diminishing, expect temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for lows across the western half of our area, and into the lower to mid 30s in the eastern counties.
648 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front will sweep across the region tonight.
556 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front will continue to move through the area late this afternoon through this evening, bringing additional showers and isolated thunderstorms to eastern and southeastern Illinois. Once the front moves through, dry and cooler weather is expected through the week. A cold front will continue to move through the area late this afternoon through this evening, bringing additional showers and isolated thunderstorms to eastern and southeastern Illinois. Temps will drop to below freezing tonight with mostly clear skies across most of the CWA. Though temps tomorrow will be cooler than last couple of days, they will still reach back to around normal. in the lower to middle 40s.
339 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Settling in for a fairly quiet night, as additional upper energy falls into the trough moving into the Great Lakes. This will push a reinforcing backdoor cold front southward into the area by late night. Tell-tale sign of elevation wind event showing up in most solutions with the downridge pressure troughing, with winds likely gusting to at least 30 to 35 mph in the favored zones downstream of the ridge crest.
943 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Crossing low pressure will promote periods of rain through early Monday morning. Building high pressure should then support mainly dry and cool conditions through the week. Recent RAP analysis at 700mb suggests boundary layer saturation (RH >70%) has commenced across the forecast area, with precipitation gradually increasing as moisture advection in srly flow ensues ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front nears, categorical PoPs should overspread the forecast area after midnight. Precipitation will quickly end with the passage of the cold front Monday morning, potentially mixing with snow in the higher elevations as cold nwly flow ensues. Remaining vorticity advection associated with a mature upper level trough will rotate southward and contribute to the chance for snow showers for a brief period of time on Monday north of Pittsburgh.
216 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a deepening long wave trough over the Plains to the Desert Southwest. Dry air within the trough has led to a clear sky. Water vapor from the subtropical jet stream is being pushed over the Southern Plains and Eastern CONUS ahead of the advancing long wave trough.
423 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Upper trough axis stretches from central MN through the Four Corners region, with a ridge building over the west coast. Surface map has a ridge over the Dakotas, and a trough over MT, resulting in westerly winds across our CWA. Temperatures are rising into the 20s across the snow-covered areas, with northwestern SD a bit warmer, in the 30s. Upper trough will split tonight with the northern portion sweeping into the Great Lakes region, and the Four Corners low slowly tracking across the southern states. Meanwhile, the west coast upper ridge will shift eastward, resulting in warmer/drier weather for us.
Temperatures will dip into the lower 30s and upper 20s tonight where clearing is most pronounced, while lows will stay in the upper 30s to near 40 where clouds hang on a little tougher across southern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
852 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front will sweep across the region tonight.
As a cold front enters the area from the northwest after midnight, more widespread showers and thunderstorms will affect GLH and GWO as conditions become more MVFR dominant.
On Monday, upper low passes by to the south and should be a non-factor in srn Colorado weather as upper level ridge begins to build over the state. Upper-level ridging continues to build over the region as the upper- level low continues to move away from the area. As a result dry and warmer weather is expected through midweek.
Currently, low pressure is developing near Glasgow in northeast Montana.
635 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Rain showers and drizzle this evening followed breezy and cooler conditions. While it will be cooler on Monday compared to recent days, look for a mid week warmup and dry conditions this week. A line of rain showers is struggling to develop at this time ahead of an incoming cold front, on the poleward edge of a departing Pacific moisture plume. The cold front will sweep through from northwest to southeast from about 00z to 03z, resulting in breezy and cooler conditions. As such, paired with breezy conditions, I do not expect refreezing of roads to be an issue.
414 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a deepening long wave trough over the Plains to the Desert Southwest. Dry air within the trough has led to a clear sky. Water vapor from the subtropical jet stream is being pushed over the Southern Plains and Eastern CONUS ahead of the advancing long wave trough.
416 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front will sweep across the region tonight.
A weak cold front will try to move southward as the aforementioned dome of high pressure begins to flatten and suppress southward. Finally, now that winds are starting to decrease and the low level flow remains moisture rich, some patchy shallow fog will be possible this morning in sheltered areas within the interior and then again Tuesday morning.
1108 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The main feature on the 500mb chart this morning was a trough of low pressure which extended from southwestern Minnesota into northern Arizona.
1054 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 (This evening through Monday) The cold front will continue to sink south and eastward further out of our area this afternoon and evening, taking any lingering showers and storms across far southeast OK with it. Temperatures will stay a bit cooler across southwestern parts of the area where clouds and showers will be more extensive, but without widespread steady precipitation there likely won't be a huge gradient across the area (near 50 southwest, mid 50s elsewhere).
Subtropical ridge surface and aloft across the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula will hold over the region today with continued above normal temperatures. but will begin to be suppressed to the south on Tuesday as a southern stream disturbance pushes across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast U. This will begin the process of carving out a L/W trough over the eastern U.
This afternoon cold air advecting in the area behind a departing cold front have held temperatures near 40 across the northwestern CWA to the mid 50s across the southern CWA. High pressure will remain in control through Monday night. On Tuesday, high pressure will shift eastward and WAA will get underway aiding in temperatures rising into the mid to upper 50s.
1019 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Upper trough axis extended from the Upper Midwest through the Central Plains and Four Corners. A upper ridge was building northward along the Pacific Coast. As a result, the start time of the High Wind Warning was changed to 1 PM this afternoon. Upper ridge slides east across the Intermountain West and Rockies Monday.
East winds will drop off on Monday, but it will be very dry and a little warmer. Cooler, onshore flow returns Tuesday.
1021 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Upper trough axis stretches from central MN through the Four Corners region, with a ridge building over the west coast. Surface map has a ridge over the Dakotas, and a trough over MT, resulting in westerly winds across our CWA. Temperatures are rising into the 20s across the snow-covered areas, with northwestern SD a bit warmer, in the 30s. Upper trough will split tonight with the northern portion sweeping into the Great Lakes region, and the Four Corners low slowly tracking across the southern states. Meanwhile, the west coast upper ridge will shift eastward, resulting in warmer/drier weather for us.
237 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Behind a cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the area today, as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. As of 2AM, a cold front appears to be located at the eastern edge of the ILN forecast area, with winds switched over to the northwest at almost all observation sites. Max temps are expected to range from the lower to upper 40s.
By Tuesday, this high pressure will shift east as a mid-level low pressure center enters the Southern Plains from the SW CONUS. This low is expected to stay south of our forecast area, keeping any potential weather to the south. So by Tuesday we can expect warmer highs in the mid to upper 50s.
A cold front will move away from the region tonight. Otherwise, high pressure is expected to hold over the area for the most part this week. The cold front is just about through the entire forecast area as of mid evening with the bulk of the steadier rainfall now off to the southeast of the region. Models suggest building heights can be expected during this period, as long wave ridging develops over the Rockies and Plains.
204 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Behind a cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the area today, as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. As of 2AM, a cold front appears to be located at the eastern edge of the ILN forecast area, with winds switched over to the northwest at almost all observation sites. Max temps are expected to range from the lower to upper 40s. Previous discussion > High pressure will start to build in tomorrow with the center of the high tracking across the area late Monday night. Temperatures will fall below normal with highs in the lower to mid 40s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. For Tuesday night, a trough of low pressure has trended farther south, so reduced pops below 15 percent threshold for precip.
231 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Current satellite analysis depicts a mid level low pressure system around the bootheel of New Mexico. Dry air is being drawn in on the southern periphery of this low detached from an atmospheric rive running from the southern Baja Peninsula northeast through south-central Texas and through AR, eastern TN, KY, and southern OH. This low will track eastward today bringing some dynamics across west Texas to include the southern Texas Panhandle. However, with the dry air entrainment, moisture will be limited or non-existent in the lower levels. Tuesday night winds will stay in the 10 to 15 mph range for the southern Texas Panhandle, which will help keep temperatures a bit warmer than the rest of the FA to the north.
143 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Early morning satellite imagery shows strong ridge over the PacNW and northern Rockies. Northern portion of splitting trof off the Pacific coast will flatten the ridge tonight and tomorrow. Despite the lower heights, a warmer night followed by deeper low level mixing should result in highs further into the 50s on Tuesday. Surface analysis shows pressure falls in north central MT, and this along with backing mid level winds should keep the highest gusts in the gap areas for the remainder of the night, though mountain top winds are decreasing somewhat. Tonight, mid level flow will increase as the ridge flattens. JKL High pressure is expected to dominate the weather for most of the upcoming week, with only minor waves moving through the region helping to flatten ridging at times.
355 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A cold front will move across the area today.
1245 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A cold front and rain showers will cross the region Monday.
Temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 50s north at 07Z, and should bottom out in the mid 40s there by sunrise. Daytime highs today will remain cool, in the low 50s north to low 60s in the Winter Garden region up through about Del Rio. Skies should clear out tonight over the southern Edwards Plateau, and so northern portions of Val verde and Edwards counties could see lows Tuesday morning approach freezing. elsewhere, lows should remain in the low to mid 40s.
321 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Cold front was working through central KY this morning and was located from Cincinnati through Frankfort down to Bowling Green as of writing this discussion. Post frontal showers will linger across our southeastern county warning area as well as clouds across all of central KY/southern IN thanks to an upper level trough sliding through the region behind the cold front. Clouds will completely clear out across the area by late afternoon with afternoon temperatures expected to be in the upper 40s (especially where clouds linger the longest) to the low 50s. High pressure settles in across the Ohio Valley tonight providing clear skies and diminishing winds. An upper level low will advance eastward from the southern Plains Tue, but plenty of dry air will keep skies mostly sunny.
Skies have cleared this evening in eastern Oregon, and were also clearing from west to east in Idaho as Pacific high pressure aloft builds inland. The high pressure will bring sunny and warmer weather Monday. High pressure at the surface in eastern Idaho will cause breezy easterly winds in the Snake Basin Monday.
815 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 High pressure building over the region will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to the area today with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages. Upper level ridging continues to build over the western USA this evening. mpj 425 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 (01/00Z TAF period) An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over Montana tonight through Monday evening. /ISSUED 425 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021/ Upper level ridging continues to shift tonight and across the Northern Rockies and Montana early this week. A passing cold front aloft Monday night into Tuesday along with an upper disturbance will cause temperatures to level off or cool slightly on Tuesday with high temperatures 45 to 50 degrees across the plains and in the 40s for most southwest MT valleys.
Temps that pushed to near and even into the lower 70s today, will settle back closer to climo norms for the beginning of the workweek, in the lower 50s. This is due to the stronger input signal of the northeast long wave trof, which actually backbuilds some and falls heights over the Midwest.
Water vapor satellite loop early this morning showed a system diving southeast across MN and WI, a mid level closed low back over southwest NM and a mid level ridge from CA up into western Canada. Our area is in northwest mid level flow and this will help a back door cold front dive through the area today. High pressure should build south/southeast from eastern ND and northwest MN early this morning toward eastern IA by evening. West or southwest winds will bring warmer air back into the area for Tuesday, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
842 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021 Latest satellite imagery showed mainly high clouds across Washington and not much across Oregon, with ridging building in. A tight pressure and thermal gradient from the Lower Treasure Valley to the Blue Mountains will cause south winds gusting to 40-50 mph, mainly south of La Grande. A lee side trough off the Blue Mtns may cause wind gusts to 30-40 mph along the foothills east-southeast of Pendleton and Walla Walla early Monday. Winds will decrease Monday afternoon when the ridge shifts to the ID border.
1042 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 (This evening through Monday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was situated just south of a San Angelo to Brady line. An upper level low will approach from the west tonight, and move across the area on Monday.
Gusty northwest winds will steadily diminish the rest of the night, as a cold front departs to the east. Starting tomorrow, dry and cooler weather is expected through the week. Showers have nearly ended in our southeast counties, as the cold front pulls farther away to the east. Lows will drop below freezing in all areas by morning, with a few upper teens possible toward Galesburg and Altona. A cold front will continue to move through the area late this afternoon through this evening, bringing additional showers and isolated thunderstorms to eastern and southeastern Illinois. Temps will drop to below freezing tonight with mostly clear skies across most of the CWA. Though temps tomorrow will be cooler than last couple of days, they will still reach back to around normal. in the lower to middle 40s.
High temperatures today will be warmer to the west, with mid- 30s in the Devils Lake Basin, and high teens near the Mississippi Headwaters. Much warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday as southerly winds become southwesterly, then westerly, remaining breezy during the afternoon. The 500mb pattern will initially feature a western ridge/eastern trough. The main challenge will be how fast the ridging shifts east into the Northern Plains.
Today Through Tuesday Night Active weather will continue today through tonight as a cold front sweeps across the state. Temperatures across the CWA have climbed into the mid 70s Cntrl and S to the 60s across Nrn AR in closer proximity to the warm front. The warm front was currently located along the AR/MO based on surface observations. This activity will move across the region tonight with the passage of a cold front. While the apparent trough swings through with the cold front, a compact upper closed low is progged to slowly traverse the region on Tuesday. In fact, a few flakes may fly across the higher terrain of the Ozarks, however no impacts are expected at this time.
1126 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Cold front has passed CLL and will sag slowly southward overnight and Monday.
High pressure building over the region will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to the area today with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages. Upper level ridging continues to build over the western USA this evening. Some mid-level clouds are noted over SW Montana, and these may hang around at least overnight, but should cause no issues except perhaps some terrain obscuration on the higher peaks. /ISSUED 134 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021/ Upper level ridging continues to shift tonight and across the Northern Rockies and Montana early this week. A passing cold front aloft Monday night into Tuesday along with an upper disturbance will cause temperatures to level off or cool slightly on Tuesday with high temperatures 45 to 50 degrees across the plains and in the 40s for most southwest MT valleys.
115 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A cold front will move across the area today.
An upper trough centered over east-central Canada continues to gradually shift east across the Great Lakes Region early this morning as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Precipitation has pushed out of the area, though it is still ongoing further south and east along the system's expansive cold front. Clearing skies and brisk northwest winds has resulted in cooler tempeatures this evening. Southwest flow will develop in the low levels and allow temperatures to warm up some by the middle of the week as warmer air advects back north. Highs Tuesday through the end of the week look to be warmer than normal with values in the upper 40s to 50s. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly by the end of the week as a ridge amplifies over the Plains states.
1128 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 A cold front continues to push south through the area this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. High pressure builds over the region on Monday. Under mostly sunny skies highs will warm into the lower to middle 50s Monday afternoon. An upper level trough will move across the southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday and across Arkansas Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 20s across central MO to the lower 30s across far southwestern MO. With warmer air advecting into the area any snow or snow mix should change over to all rain fairly quickly. Further south if clouds and rain linger across these locations highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s will occur.
400 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Behind a cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the area today, as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Previous discussion (237 AM) > As of 2AM, a cold front appears to be located at the eastern edge of the ILN forecast area, with winds switched over to the northwest at almost all observation sites. Max temps are expected to range from the lower to upper 40s.
226 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 An upper ridge axis will extend over the Central and Southern Rockies today. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will build across the northern and central High Plains. Highs were nudged upward a few degrees into the lower 50s across the central sandhills and southwest NE. Warmer 850mb temperatures from 4-8C will reside over the area. Even warmer Tuesday, as a southwest wind veers to the northwest in the afternoon. Highs were nudged to near the NBM 50th percentile with 60 to the low 60s forecast most areas.