Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 69 85 69 86 / 30 10 30 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 68 83 68 82 / 20 10 40 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 87 67 83 66 82 / 20 10 50 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 80 65 79 / 0 10 30 50 70.
Conditions will settle down on Saturday and Saturday night, however, as the mid level weakness over the area tends to fill and broad ridging takes over.
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 (Today and tonight) On the western periphery of mid-upper High centered over Florida, southerly low-level flow and relatively high PWATs extend northward from the Gulf coast into the Arklatex Region. Current thinking is diminishing/remnant convection from the high terrain to our west may drift into northwest Oklahoma during the evening, diminishing overnight.
Trending drier and hotter later this weekend as low-to-midlevel thermal ridging builds over the High Plains and upper trof deepens over the wrn CONUS.
1220 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected today under high pressure before a series of disturbances bring thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Models prog another trough axis / warm front will cross this evening, but dry mid-level and boundary-layer air should inhibit widespread precipitation. Consensus among the convection-allowing models (CAMs) indicate that convection should initiate by early afternoon on a trough axis, or what may be the outflow boundary from the overnight storms, somewhere in the vicinity and parallel to the I-70/76 corridor.
The low-level jet axis is progged to be somewhat veered across southern Kansas. The High Plains convection appears less likely to affect Oklahoma, but there is a low chance it could impact northwest Oklahoma before dissipating.
204 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A mid-level ridge axis remains oriented from sw of Far W TX extending through NE NM. Just e of the ridge isolated-scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop in parts of the GDP-Davis Mtns this PM. The ridge axis is still expected to move e some Sat PM with a repeat performance of mtn storms, except more coverage and with a tendency to drift into the SE NM plains. Warmer still Tue and Wed with PoPs confined to the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos. Thereafter the subtropical ridge expands n.
More organized deep convective initiation should occur as capping erodes along a sagging cold front, but it remains to be seen if subsidence behind the departing MCV will hamper convective development.
Warmer temperatures as the 700 mb temperatures rise to near 14 Celsius.
The relative humidity there will again fall into the lower 20s, similar to today, but even a little lower, as highs Saturday reach into the middle 90s. Models maintain an H500 longwave trough across the western US with a general blocking pattern over the eastern US.
1248 PM PDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A weak low pressure system over southern California may will bring generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the San Bernardino Mountains through early evening.
A cold front will become nearly stationary across north central Illinois this weekend.
These models do show some convection during the evening hours as the cold front sweeps in over central and eastern U. Storms have began to develop along the cold front that is now over the western upper peninsula, but should lose instability as it approaches eastern upper and northern lower. 75") and a 500mb trough moves overhead and cools the mid- levels. Instability decreases after sunset ahead of the cold front arrival, expect the possibility of some heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder. The winds will veer to northwesterly behind the aforementioned departing cold front during the afternoon hours Saturday and be gusty once again, with gusts to around 20 mph. A developing and strengthening omega blocking ridge takes shape across the region. This should lead to precipitation free and much warmer conditions.
254 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Very warm and moist airmass in place on Friday has brought heat indices to likely the highest values of the season thus far.
The upper level trough that brought better coverage of storms the past few days is finally departing the eastern seaboard leaving a large area of high pressure building over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will remain near normal through Saturday with lows in the 70s and highs in the low 90s. Scattered showers and storms will likely develop this afternoon north of Interstate 10 and most likely along the highway 84 corridor.
Most locations north of I-20 may briefly rise into the lower 80s, but should stay in the upper 70s for the majority of the afternoon within a rather stable airmass. Moisture continues to rotate around a low-level ridge which has established over the Florida Peninsula. Will maintain the low confidence mention of severe in the HWO wherein damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary threat.
811 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 High pressure will build over the area through the weekend, promoting warmer temperatures and drier weather than the past few days. Surface winds may never fully decouple given the presence of the low level jet limiting the development of fog however with the rain through the central Midlands this evening expect some fog to develop mainly in fog prone locations. High pressure aloft will be over The Midlands and CSRA this weekend. This will result in very warm temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure over the region provided sunny skies and temperatures hovering around 90 degrees today.
Mostly clear skies tonight under dry upper level ridge. Clouds will increase Saturday morning from northwest to Southeast with passage of a cold front.
530 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A series of low pressure troughs will increase rain chance for the region tonight and Saturday. Inhibition at that time is expected to come from sfc stabilization, but the area remains under a "marginal" to "slight" risk given the wind profiles as the low rapidly crosses Lake Erie in the immediate predawn. Consensus among the convection- allowing models (CAMs) indicate that convection should initiate by early afternoon on a trough axis, or what may be the outflow boundary from the overnight storms, somewhere in the vicinity and parallel to the I-70/76 corridor.
936 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Tonight showers affecting northern WI should move out of the area and skies should clear as the upper level trough moves east.
902 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A series of low pressure troughs will increase rain chance for the region tonight and Saturday. Nevertheless, the region remains under a "marginal" to "slight" risk given the wind profiles as the low rapidly crosses Lake Erie in the immediate predawn. Consensus among the convection- allowing models (CAMs) indicate that convection should initiate by early afternoon on a trough axis, or what may be the outflow boundary from the overnight storms, somewhere in the vicinity and parallel to the I-70/76 corridor.
In addition, a trough axis was located from Arkansas to south Texas. Latest surface analysis showed a 1024mb high over southern Georgia/north Florida and a weak inverted trough axis from south Texas to southeast Louisiana this afternoon. Upper level ridge will slowly shift east as the trough axis shifts east through tomorrow. The approach of the trough will create veering winds with height across the forecast area with 0-3km helicity is not impressive. Upper level Trough will pass and flatten as it moves east.
/issued 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020/ A mid-level ridge axis remains oriented from sw of Far W TX extending through NE NM. Just e of the ridge isolated-scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop in parts of the GDP-Davis Mtns this PM. The ridge axis is still expected to move e some Sat PM with a repeat performance of mtn storms, except more coverage and with a tendency to drift into the SE NM plains. Warmer still Tue and Wed with PoPs confined to the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos. Thereafter the subtropical ridge expands n.
Broad surface pressure falls are beginning across the High Plains, heralding a return to southerly low-level flow overnight along with low- and midlevel warm air advection. We may need to consider reducing the lows tonight a bit with a later update given a dry boundary layer, especially southwest. The relative humidity there will again fall into the lower 20s, similar to today, but even a little lower, as highs Saturday reach into the middle 90s. Models maintain an H500 longwave trough across the western US with a general blocking pattern over the eastern US.
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is showing a short wave trough moving into the Midwest from the Plains. This short wave will help to push a weak cold front from northwest Iowa down into northern Missouri by early this evening. However, lingering precip and convective debris will likely keep temperatures suppressed in the low to mid 80s.
624 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Tonight showers affecting northern WI should move out of the area and skies should clear as the upper level trough moves east.
Highs tomorrow will be around 90 in the valley and a few degrees warmer to the west and a few degrees cooler to the east. An upper ridge will be in place on Sun, allowing for warmer temps and dry conditions. An upper low will transit into the Northern Rockies at this time, edging closer to the Northern Plains. Finally, the approach of an upper wave/500 mb trough by Wed could provide the de-stabilization/forcing necessary for organized strong to severe convection. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN with high pressure dominating the pattern locally.
Overnight lows should fall into the low 70s. High pressure is centered over FL which is bringing SW flow and humid conditions to the region. Temperatures are below normal with cloudy skies and showers keeping temperatures down as high pressure begins to build.
A glance at model soundings suggest that a sizable of amount of drying has occurred in the lower levels (below 750-800 mb). This has been seen in the observational trends as the low stratus has dissipated and been replaced with 5-6+ kft ceilings. Ridging continues to build across the southeast during the second half of the weekend, keeping the stronger disturbances to our north.
Mostly cloudy skies and mid 70s dewpoints will preclude efficient cooling with mild low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The upper ridge waffles over the next few days with waves passing and a trough axis shifting from South Texas into the midwest by mid week. Looks like a trough in the east and a ridge over the Gulf will keep things the same.
High pressure will continue across the waters with a prevailing E/SE flow.
A few showers persist across the higher terrain areas of west central Arkansas, although the coverage continues to diminish, in addition to a few remaining showers over northern McCurtain County that will move into parts of LeFlore County in the next hour before dissipating.
(Tonight through Saturday) We will keep the low pops in northern Oklahoma for overnight.
The evening sounding was slightly more moist in the lower to mid levels, with the elevated mixed layer from 700-500 mb from last evening since departed. 500 mb heights were observed to be the highest near Miami at 595 Dm, and low level ridging over central and northern Florida. The western portion of the ridge will hold alignment from Alabama through the Florida-Georgia border, with a brief period of breezy conditions overnight.
842 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 The mid level ridge aloft across central FL an easterly low level below H7 with drying in the H9-H7 layer allowed only isolated convection across the interior during the early evening. For the remainder of the night dry and warm conditions with E/SE flow around the Atlantic ridge with winds becoming light. Lows mainly in the mid 70s, and warmer along the beaches from the Cape south. Winds to 5 to 10 knots are expected around the Atlantic ridge.
It will be a warm night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures in the lower 90s combined with dewpoints in the 70s will yield heat indices near 100 tomorrow afternoon. Mid level ridging will also strengthen some, so the coverage of afternoon showers and storms may be less than today.
643 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Very warm and moist airmass in place on Friday has brought heat indices to likely the highest values of the season thus far.
/issued 233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020/ (Tonight through Saturday) Showers that were trying to get into the area underneath a relative weakness in the ridge just to our east have been weakening as they entered our southeastern counties.
Ridge building into the area with dry air aloft has resulted in less convection today. Upper ridge will flatten over the weekend which should bring an increase in the coverage of showers and storms.
This will bring much cooler temperatures with Saturdays high temperatures from the upper 80's/low 90's Delta and southern Sacramento Valley.
Also, broad troughing develops over the western Great Lakes/Ohio Valley in response to a deepening low over Quebec. Front should briefly drop south and west of the forecast area early Sunday morning to allow for a brief reprieve from storms while a weak ridge develops over the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
224 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 High pressure will build over the area through the weekend, promoting warmer temperatures and drier weather than the past few days. Surface winds may never fully decouple given the presence of the low level jet limiting the development of fog however with the rain through the central Midlands this evening expect some fog to develop mainly in fog prone locations. High pressure aloft will be over The Midlands and CSRA this weekend. This will result in very warm temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper trough moves into New England on Sunday with an associated weak cold front pushing into the Southeast U.
Very weak upper troughing remains over the lower Mississippi river Valley. Weak upper troughing gradually shears out over the next couple of days as eastern Gulf of Mexico ridging builds westward.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure centered near the Florida peninsula will build west during the period, ending the mid-level weakness over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley that has allowed scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the past few days. Dry weather across the BRO CWFA will be the result of the building mid-level ridge. However, near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will occur on Sunday as the ridge begins to be more dominant.
0" and sfc dewpoints in the lower 60s will support dry conditions and very comfortable temps across central NC this evening and overnight with temps gradually falling into the 65-70 degree range. With an increasingly cyclonic flow and the presence of a trough across the western Piedmont, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across the western Piedmont and drift east into the evening. Highs will be a bit warmer and range in the upper 80s to lower 90 with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A disturbance moving through the westerly mid-level flow between an upper low cutting off over New England and a subtropical ridge over FL may bring an MCS across the area Sunday or Sunday night, though uncertainty in the timing leads to low confidence in its strength or impacts.
Due to cloud cover and scattered precip, high temperatures will be cooler than yesterday. with most locations topping out in the lower to middle 80s.
This will lead to minimal change in the high temperatures compared to yesterday with highs generally in the mid 80s. Expect dry conditions to close out the weekend as an amplifying ridge builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Subtle warming of the residual airmass will get underway tomorrow with fewer clouds expecting under the ridge. The ridge will persist across the region while an upper low gets cut off from the mean flow across the New England region and wobbles into the mid-Atlantic region through mid week. A cold front will advance south across the area late Sat afternoon/evening.
This trend of weak troughing/passing impulses expected to last through most of the weekend, with weak ridging building Sun night. Beginnings of building upper ridge however likely to push bulk of pcpn to the Plateau overnight and Sun. as building ridge out west shifts our upper flow northwest. Weak upper ridging and a good bit of drying will lessen our storm chances some Mon, but that will be very short lived. By early Tues, an upper low will enter the picture.
A cold front will then cross the area on Sunday with a few showers possible once again along the frontal boundary.
343 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Upper level ridging will amplify over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. This places the CWA on the backside of the ridge axis as a weakening Great Basin low evolves into an open wave to our west. The airmass warms slightly Saturday and Saturday night as we will fall under the influence of the upper ridge. Highs trend warmer on Sunday as increasing southwest flow ushers in warmer and drier air.
Throughout the day, the subtropical ridge over the Gulf will slowly drift towards the Middle Texas coast. 8" as the lower levels of the atmosphere are still saturated. Meanwhile, a upper trough positioned over the southwest will lift to the northeast across the Plains overnight into Sunday and nudge the ridge back towards the Gulf. Recent GMAO GOES FP Aerograms show the highest dust extinction amounts along the coast through about 00Z with a gradual improvement during the overnight hours. Look for highs today and tomorrow to be a bit warmer with highs back in the 90s with mild and humid nights.
1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is showing a short wave trough moving into the Midwest from the Plains. This short wave will help to push a weak cold front from northwest Iowa down into northern Missouri by early this evening. However, lingering precip and convective debris will likely keep temperatures suppressed in the low to mid 80s.
The pattern this afternoon is highlighted by a broad subtropical H5 anticyclone centered atop FL while a ridge axis extends northward, all as a large cyclone rotates over eastern Canada and another deepens over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, sprawling high pressure prevails in the vicinity of the aforementioned H5 ridge center while an old diffuse cold front slowly slides back northward as a warm front across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Expect abundant cloud cover through the day today with isentropic ascent around the northwestern periphery of a low-level ridge across Florida.
Mostly cloudy skies and mid 70s dewpoints will preclude efficient cooling with mild low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
910 PM PDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Saturday will be a warm, dry day with generally sunny skies after the low clouds dissipate at the coast.
330 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Will start the day with the upper ridge over TX and a trough moving into AZ. As this trough moves east it displace the ridge a bit before breaking up and being swept downstream Sunday. The next upper low will begin to move into the NW today moving across WA and OR Sunday then into ID.
The better cloud cover and precipition will keep temperatures slightly cooler in central MO where some mid 80s will be possible, but further south it looks like upper 80s to around 90 once again. Warm conditions are expected tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. It looks pretty toasty though with highs into the low 90s just about everywhere and heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.
During the day on Sunday, the front, where ever it may be, will begin to move back to the north as a warm front. This combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will see heat index values between 95 and 105 during the afternoon hours.
1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 (Tonight through Saturday) We will keep the low pops in northern Oklahoma for overnight.
1237 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 A series of low pressure troughs will increase rain chance for the region tonight and Saturday. Nevertheless, the region remains under a "marginal" to "slight" risk given the wind profiles as the low rapidly crosses Lake Erie in the immediate predawn. Consensus among the convection- allowing models (CAMs) indicate that convection should initiate by early afternoon on a trough axis, or what may be the outflow boundary from the overnight storms, somewhere in the vicinity and parallel to the I-70/76 corridor. A cold front will then cross the area on Sunday with a few showers possible once again along the frontal boundary.
While there are hints of some marginal surface based instability with little to no shear, convergence in the low levels is very weak. Not expecting severe weather but maybe an isolated funnel as the low level wind field is very weak, heating is good and the 0- 3km CAPE is about 100 J/kg. Other than this high pressure will settle in tonight with light winds expected. Saturday night into Sunday morning weak upper level troughing will spread onto the Western High Plains. This will bring a bit of an increase in the low level jet, but for now moisture and instability are not very impressive. Saturday night lows and Sunday highs warmer.
High temperatures in the lower 90s combined with dewpoints in the 70s will yield heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 this afternoon. Upper level ridging will strengthen some, so the coverage of afternoon showers and storms should be less than the previous days. Not much change is in store for the overnight pattern either, as continued southerly flow and upper level ridging keep the weather warm, breezy, and humid through the night.
Weak upper level ridging will likely keep us dry through the day today with any showers and storms remaining to the south of the CWA. Otherwise, expect temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s with a light northwest wind.
1220 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Tonight showers affecting northern WI should move out of the area and skies should clear as the upper level trough moves east. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the first half of Sunday, leading to mostly sunny skies. A large upper level ridge located over the north central U. VFR with high pressure nearby. High pressure will settle over Lake Superior with light and variable winds.
This is a typical pattern for isolated late day thunderstorms and then more organized storm clusters at night rolling eastward from the high plains. Highs Saturday will depend also on how much tonight's MCS cools off the lower levels so that highs could be anywhere in the 90s, with the coolest readings where the heaviest rain occurs tonight(probably Dighton to Scott City to Lakin westward).
So we don't expect much cooling inland overnite, but wait until Sat and then Sun when the Pac trof deepens over the region crashing 5H heights, and bringing a significantly cooler air from the Pacific and western Canada. Max temps on Sat are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees than today except over the San Jqn Vly, and then another 5 to 15 degrees cooler over our CWA except for western Solano Co. This will bring much cooler temperatures with Saturdays high temperatures from the upper 80's/low 90's Delta and southern Sacramento Valley. Upper low dropping south from the Pacific Northwest will bring cooler temperatures area-wide and slight mountain shower chances Sunday.