Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 246 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2016/ A weak low pressure system setting up over California and Nevada will produce isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms today through Thursday. This low is then expected to drift south, limiting most of the thunderstorm threat to the southern Sierra by this weekend. Current satellite imagery shows a weak upper low centered over the northeast corner of CA. In Lassen-Plumas-Sierra Counties (close to the location of the upper low) a few showers have been nearly stationary with radar estimates up to 0. The main potential for brief heavy rain is from I-80 north close to the upper low. The upper low will slowly shift east across northern NV through this evening.
351 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 An upper ridge over the Panhandles today will break down and shift east as an upper trough over the central and southern Rockies slowly tracks east Thursday. A mid and upper trough over central and south Texas will move west Thursday advecting abundant low level Gulf moisture into the forecast area from the southeast.
321 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 Please refer to our web site, Flood Warnings and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service for details on the major and record river flooding that is still ongoing on the lower end of the Amite River basin along with many areas of backwater flooding from Pointe Coupee Parish (False River area) to near Lake Maurepas. A fairly typical summer weather regime will persist through end of the week with a Bermuda ridge extending from the the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
432 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 GA will remain under the influence of the western Atlantic ridge and a moist tropical airmass. The two main atmospheric features are the moisture plume extending from eastern TX to the New England states and the Bermuda ridge that stays parked over the region through the end of the week. This ridge is beginning to weaken but it will continue to keep the main axis of moisture north and west of our area through Thu Night. This ridge eventually allows the deeper moisture to move into our area Fri Morning and will see increased chances of rain through the weekend.
419 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 Low pressure will move east of the area this morning and this will help bring any lingering showers to an end.
Weak but persistent upper level troughing will remain over North and Central Texas through tonight. Since the warm front has finally lifted north of the region, precipitation will most likely spread much farther north and northwest today than the past couple of days. The best storm chances should shift to the northern half of the region late in the week through the weekend as an upper level trough approaches from the Central Rockies.
318 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Cold front will move through the forecast area today providing more rain and thunderstorms. Another cold front this weekend. By Thursday morning the cold front should be mostly through the region.
631 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 Low pressure will move east of the area this morning and this will help bring any lingering showers to an end.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s near the coast, and lows will be in the 70s.
With increasing 850 mb warm advection across North Dakota, it should be a bit warmer than we've seen in the last week or two across the western forecast area. Highs in the mid to upper 80s across the Devils Lake basin and Red River Valley appear likely with readings in the low 80s to the east. A developing low pressure system east of the Rockies will allow southerly winds to increase Wednesday night as temperatures remain mild in the low to mid 60s. Models are in good agreement bringing precipitation ahead of a cold front into the western forecast area in the 06-09z time frame Thursday. This area of precipitation will slowly move eastward throughout the morning while a warm front associated with the South Dakota low sets up farther south.
However, that area is dwindling as moisture is advected into the region from the southeast and ahead of an approaching cold front. High temps will be around the lower 90s unless convection starts early. As we head into the weekend, the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic will continue to break down as a trough moves across the Great Lakes.
418 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 High pressure is over the area early this morning with light winds and mostly clear skies. For today, anticipating mostly quiet conditions as high pressure keeps skies mostly sunny and winds on the light side. Low pressure will develop over western SD and move east-southeast into the evening hours. Frontal boundary will be established early on across the CWA and begin to slide southeast as a cold front as the low begins to push southeast.
Eastern Idaho is now coming under a pattern that has weak troughs coming in from the west and interacting with moisture coming out of the Gulf of California through Nevada. A stronger trough Thu, with perfect timing of arriving during the afternoon, will mean an even higher risk of thunderstorm and shower activity for Thu afternoon/evening. The troughs are moving through the base of a strong low in central Canada. A third trough, the strongest in the series, follows on Fri. This trough is developed enough where there will be a moderate to strong (for summer anyway) cold front at the surface, with high temperatures on Fri 10 to 15 deg F colder than Thu highs. Wind will be stronger than it has been lately by Fri with this cold front.
Given the boundary and modest forcing from a mid level trough, will go with categorical pops across the area today.
649 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 A cold front will stall across the region today before dissipating through Thursday. High pressure will pass to our north this weekend with several weak disturbances moving through the region.
There is also a weak sfc reflection in the form of a trough of low pressure near or nw of the I-30 corridor of Northeast Texas into Southwest Arkansas which will be a player in precip coverage today as well.
Lows should cool into the low/mid 70s. Big picture wise, strong upper level ridging off of the east coast will gradually weaken, allowing a SW-NE oriented moisture axis to move ever closer to the region.
A weak impulse will move in from the northwest and could spawn some thunderstorm activity with the weak trough as the focus, along with over 1000 J/Kg MUCAPE possible. Dry and very warm conditions are then expected for Wednesday and Thursday, upper level ridging is expected.
347 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 345 AM CDT Main focus in near term is convection associated with short wave(s) on southern peripehry of primary upper trough over the northern Lakes. Assuming cloud cover over IA dissipates as the convection driving it weakens, temperatures should be able to warm well back into the 80s again today with 925 temps on 00z RAOBs and progged 925 mb temps in the lower 20s Celsius. High pressure is expected to remain over the southeast U.
The passing boundary will do little to eject the ample low-level moisture, and with the upper trough approaching and daytime heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again today. Broad upper-level trough will begin to shift east over the forecast area tonight and Thursday.
A slowly passing boundary today will do little to eject the ample low-level moisture, and with the upper trough approaching and daytime heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again today. Broad upper-level trough will begin to shift east over the forecast area tonight and Thursday.
Expect alternating intervals of slightly warmer/cooler temperatures for inland locations, meanwhile, coastal locations will see little to no day to day variability. A series of unorganized vorticity lobes will begin to move into the state today and push through the region by the end of the week via a marginal 587-588dm mean trough. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific will begin to retreat away from the California coastline after today. As a result, temperatures today are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday, especially inland, as the ridge exerts dominance over the region one more day before drifting onshore.
332 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 A cold front will stall across the region today before dissipating through Thursday. High pressure will pass to our north this weekend with several weak disturbances moving through the region.
344 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2016 Very warm again today followed by gradual cooling Thursday through the weekend as a weak trough settles over the Southwest.
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed a stationary upper trough extending from the upper Mississippi River Valley to the Central Plains.
643 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Today will be drier and cooler behind a cold front with mainly dry conditions.
300 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 Outside of one small cluster of weakening thunderstorms over north central Nebraska, most of the convective activity early this morning was located east of the area in association with a more dominant mid level trough. Surface features are forecast to remain rather weak through Thursday and the upper flow transitions from northwest flow to more zonal as a strong upper trough moves out of western and central Canada towards the northern plains.
648 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 A weak trof of low pressure will remain over the middle of the state for the next couple of days.
325 AM MDT WED AUG 17 2016 Warm weather will continue today as weak upper-level ridging remains intact over the central Rockies. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a few weak disturbances undercutting the ridge, which combined w/low level convergence along the Laramie Range should promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The ridge should begin to break down on Thu as a weak trough meanders across CO and southern WY.
249 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2016 A weak low pressure system setting up over California and Nevada will produce isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms today and Thursday.
243 AM MDT WED AUG 17 2016 17z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate short wave trough sliding across central Nebraska with a cold front extending from roughly Lincoln Nebraska to Liberal KS. Similar pattern develops tomorrow with lee trough bringing increasing southerly flow with winds increasing to 15 to 20 kts near the KS and CO line during the afternoon. Could see an isolated storm make it off the higher terrain.
There is also a 500mb ridge over the western Atlantic. Models are also indicating an inverted trough at 500mb moving into the region late tonight, maybe tomorrow morning. The upper level trough will weaken by Thursday, but will remain in the vicinity through the end of the week.
Main change for the update was to lower overnight minimum temperatures in many locations, especially the higher southwest valleys due to the combination of light winds and low dewpoint temperatures. Upper ridge over the area this afternoon begins to flatten overnight as an upper trof approaches the Pacific Northwest. Thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage Wednesday as the upper trof moves across the Idaho Panhandle. A cold front will drop south out of Canada and across the area beginning late Wednesday night. Winds will become northerly by midday Wednesday but the cooler air will not cross the border until Wednesday night. The continuing north winds, along with the rain and extensive cloud cover, will combine to result in much cooler temperatures for Thursday.
Upper flow becomes more southwesterly today with an area of low pressure at the surface lifting through the area. Winds will turn north northeast this evening and overnight as an initial cold front drops south through the region. Best precipitation chances will be over the higher terrain. Temperatures on Thursday will be a good 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Wednesday behind the cold frontal passage.
417 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Low pressure will cross the region early this morning and then exit across the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon. A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
The deep layer ridge centered off of the NC coast will begin to weaken and shift southward through Thursday. The highest PoPs (40-50%) are expected from Panama City westward, and also around Cross City. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s and low temperatures will be in the mid 70s.
Inverted troughing over the area will allow for showers and some isolated thunderstorm activity especially during the late morning and afternoon. The latest KBRO reflectivity shows that the current convection is west of Interstate 69C and is moving northwards where the higher afternoon temps is maintaining the instability a little bit longer. Wednesday the upper low weakens and diminishes.
532 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Cold front will move through the forecast area today providing more rain and thunderstorms. Another cold front this weekend. By Thursday morning the cold front should be mostly through the region.
437 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Currently - An atlantic high extends a ridge into the southeastern United States. Guidance continues to suggest that a trough digging off the Atlantic coast will bifurcate the Atlantic ridge. Light to gentle winds will continue to trend downwards over the next day or so as a ridge to our north loses strength.
1128 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 The vigorous mid/upper trough responsible for our windy and stormy weather conditions will move rapidly north and east across the Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley area by early Monday morning. As high pressure settles over the area Mon night, radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the low to mid 20s. A mid/upper trough is progged to dig over the Central Great Basin/Southwest States as we move into the weekend bringing an increasing chance for precipitation to the area late in the weekend.
At this time, we are planning to extend the high wind warning for most of southwestern Minnesota as well as Brookings County SD until 21Z/3 pm CST.
Actual cold front itself will move through the state during the period but will trail this line by several hours at least. (ISSUED 523 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 ) A warm front is north of the state with a cold front now moving into eastern Oklahoma. IFR to LIFR conditions will return to all terminals tonight before the aforementioned cold front and associated SHRA/TSRA moves into western Arkansas. A cold front is moving east through central Oklahoma this afternoon.
309 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low lifting north along the ND/MN state line within a larger upper trough. A cold front, with a modified Pacific airmass behind it, was moving through eastern NEB and central KS. Because of this have lowered the min temp forecast for tonight expecting readings in the lower and middle 20s.
1211 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 A warm front will bring a chance of light showers early Monday morning continuing through much of the day. Temperatures could be cold enough in the morning for a brief period of freezing rain.
113 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 A warm front will bring a chance of light showers early Monday morning continuing through much of the day. Temperatures could be cold enough in the morning for a brief period of freezing rain.
1011 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2016 Upper level analysis has negatively tilted trof over the Rockies with closed low strengthening and ejecting into the Central Plains. Widespread rain/freezing rain/snow continues to move south to north across the area, with another decent batch of moisture moving into southwest South Dakota. At the surface, low pressure is located in Northeast Colorado with inverted trof into central South Dakota. Arctic cold front stretches from central ND to southwest SD. Snowfall amounts will taper off significantly south and east of a line from near Philip to Pine Ridge, with little or no snow over much of south central SD. Upper trof deepens over Hudson Bay-Great Lakes and ridge moves eastward, and precipitation with a weak system is mostly wrung out over the Rockies, leaving low pops over nern WY and swrn SD Wed.
A strong upper level low pressure system was centered over the eastern Dakotas early this morning and continues to bring blizzard conditions to western portions of those states. Surface winds will be considerably lighter today compared to Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the central Plains.
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT HAS BEEN A MINOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE SNOWFALL THUS FAR.
328 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 08z/2am surface analysis shows 985mb low over southeast South Dakota, with warm front extending southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Temperatures across central Illinois have been rising steadily over the past several hours and now range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. A band of showers associated with a trough axis extending southward from the low has pushed into the western KILX CWA along/west of the I-55 corridor. Given MUCAPE values of 200-400J/kg and potent upper dynamics, have included isolated thunder mention across the E/SE as the trough pushes through the area. The main cold front associated with the low lags further west and will not pass through central Illinois until this afternoon/evening. Skies will become mostly clear across the board tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
108 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 A warm front will lift north through the Ohio Valley tonight.
317 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 Strong low pressure over northwest Minnesota early this morning will push across Ontario over the next 18 hours and drag its trailing cold front through Indiana and Kentucky tonight. Yesterday Bowling Green got into the lower 70s, 2 to 4 degrees warmer than the previous evening's 00Z guidance was suggesting.
1138 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Early afternoon weather has been strongly tied to warm front and pockets of clear skies. Warm front currently aligned WNW-ESE from STJ to Moberly. Instability will generally remain as-is or slowly increase during the remainder of the afternoon in areas south of the warm front, but most locations should realize AOB 500 J/kg of SB/MU CAPE. While enough elevated instability is expected to maintain some semblance of the convective line through the entire CWA, thanks in part to strong linear forcing, there remains limited instability in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. This window should quickly end by 02Z as instability weakens and the low- levels decouple.
Will continue to hold on to the low end chance for showers/drizzle and will even carry a mention of thunder this afternoon across the northwestern zones where the best chance for rain will be found.
1224 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Monday night.
Some redevelopment of snow occurs over northwest Mn after midnight with upper low moving over area. Upper level low pressure system was located over western SD. Warm air aloft was over mainly the Mn side of the REd River and far southeast ND and creating the freezing precip. Temperatures are right around freezing within the freezing rain area which may limit ice accumulation across some areas, but there will be areas where surfaces remain below freezing with significant ice accums.
338 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 High pressure over the area is bringing clear skies and cooling temps for Christmas Day. Fair skies and cold overnight temps are expected before a bounce back of seasonably warmer conditions ahead of strong low pressure system moving northwest of the region. The rest of the week will see a rather quiet period of weather with continued seasonably warmer temps. 1046mb sfc anticyclone centered across Quebec providing clear skies and light winds, with excellent radiational cooling. Upper level trof crosses the forecast area overnight and we'll have some upslope light snow showers in the higher elevations.
This will keep the inland empire a bit warmer than last night and preclude the necessity of another frost advisory there. The big news is the very cold air expected to reside over the higher mountains towards daybreak Monday due to very good radiational cooling conditions where there remains a considerable snowpack in the higher mountains of the San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego County mountains. Have lowered min temperatures there about 10 degrees and a few degrees lower in the high deserts as well where good radiational cooling is also likely overnight.
1239 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 Temperatures will surge warmer overnight as a warm front lifts through the region. A cold front will cross the area Monday with showers expected.
1131 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 We have seen quite the transition in weather across the Missouri Ozarks over the last 12 hours as a warm front continues to lift northeast across the area. A trailing surface front/trough will be the focus of a thin line of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight as this feature tracks east across the area. We have gone on the high side of guidance with highs expected to reach the lower to middle 60s over most areas.
346 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 A warm front will bring warmer temperatures and a low chance for light rain this morning. Rain showers will arrive later today and continue tonight as a cold front crosses the region. Warm front continues to advance across the region, with limited moisture. Temperatures are above freezing, with the possible exceptions of sheltered areas north of KFKL and KDUJ. Have kept any mention of freezing rain out of forecast, as probability is so low. As front pushes north, strong warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front will push temperatures nearly 20 degrees above average. As the cold front arrives late day and pushes east, showers will become numerous toward eastern Ohio late day and spread east across the region overnight.
Making changes to headlines where all the freezing precip and sleet has moved out of the ice storm warned counties, and replacing with a high wind warning. Heavy rain, thunderstorms, and freezing rain are being reported across the area this afternoon. Due to the uncertainty in local temps I went ahead and left the current headlines alone since many areas are still receiving a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Additional freezing rain/snow is possible. The transition from rain/freezing rain to snow, with 1-2 inch accumulations in Marshall, Day, and Roberts counties will need to be monitored as blizzard conditions are not out of the question.
1020 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Making changes to headlines where all the freezing precip and sleet has moved out of the ice storm warned counties, and replacing with a high wind warning. Heavy rain, thunderstorms, and freezing rain are being reported across the area this afternoon. Due to the uncertainty in local temps I went ahead and left the current headlines alone since many areas are still receiving a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Additional freezing rain/snow is possible. The transition from rain/freezing rain to snow, with 1-2 inch accumulations in Marshall, Day, and Roberts counties will need to be monitored as blizzard conditions are not out of the question.
It is still snowing in the higher mountains, mostly light snow along with fairly strong winds.
356 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through tonight.
A few showers will be possible today but will remain isolated due to shallow moisture and ridging in mid-upper levels. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs today ranging from the low/mid 70s coast to near 80 degrees inland.
1039 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 A strong low pressure system will continue occluding over the central plains tonight. Once the warm front has lifted to the north, southeasterly winds will increase and gust to 20-30 mph at times. SHRA/TSRA will be forced by the system's cold front and supported by large-scale ascent and modest H7-H5 lapse rates. The persistent low clouds and fog/mist which have been in place for the last few days will quickly clear out behind the cold front, and most locations should see partly sunny skies tomorrow.
Moisture will be increasing during the short term ahead of the next cold front.