Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Windy/slightly cooler conditions expected on Monday. Hudson Bay upper low develops mid-week, with dry northwest flow over the forecast area. Next chance of precipitation will come Thur-Fri as upper trof crosses the Rockies into the Northern Plains.
141 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.
At this time, it appears that the highest probabilities for low ceilings are draped across parts of south central Alabama and northwest Florida (north of I-10) right around sunrise. Temperatures quickly rebound into the mid to upper 80s inland by this afternoon, while slightly cooler at the beaches. Low temperatures overnight Sunday into early Monday will be a few degrees warmer than this morning's lows. That said, with high pressure controlling the local weather, expect temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 80s inland with low 70s along the coast in the afternoon.
Upper low continues to push a cold front into the Pacific northwest early this evening. Cooler temps with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Satellite and radar show cold front boundary moving across the PNW this afternoon, with some storms developing in the central OR mountains already. This first round of thunderstorms will develop off already present instability ahead of the cold front, and move from southeast to the northwest as the frontal boundary pushes across the forecast area. Tonight, region will come under a westerly flow as axis of upper level trough and cold front exit the region to the northeast. Ridging will begin to take place over the PNW Sunday night, strengthening through Monday morning with the region looking fairly dry through Monday.
327 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 A cold frontal boundary will move east of the region today with clearing skies. However, a secondary cold front will move through the area Monday with a few spotty showers.
348 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020 Cooler and less wind today compared to yesterday as cold front has pushed through the FA overnight. Wed - Sat Main feature this period is an upper level low over Hudson Bay will move into the western Great Lakes Fri then slow shift east on Sat. Concurrently upper ridge building will occur over western North America.
Temperatures today will be more seasonable than yesterday but will still climb into the lower to middle 70s. High pressure will move over Missouri This evening and overnight which will bring a break in rain chances with a mild night expected for the region.
1204 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances increase tonight into Sunday with a crossing cold front. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Brief periods of light showers in the ridges may occur through Monday morning as low-level moisture lingers and orographic lift occurs under NW flow. As dry air quickly advance from the north mid- Monday as high pressure builds, quiet conditions should prevail.
The implication being a bit more lift and saturation ahead of the low amplitude wave moving across the area. This activity should exit southeast Kansas by midday with the rest of the day dry and slightly cooler, though seasonably mild for early May. The main challenge on Monday afternoon remains how far north the effective warm front and better moisture/instability will get before the Pacific front arrives late in the day.
Sunday will be cooler than today as a result, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The front will move back north as a warm front into the area on Monday, leading to potential for severe storms in the afternoon and evening.
JHM A weak front from a low pressure area along the west coast will move inland this afternoon and evening. Dry zonal flow on Sunday will bring slightly warmer temperatures to the interior.
A cold front will cross the region tonight through Monday morning bringing a few scattered showers to the region. Aside from the few patches of mid level clouds, daytime insolation will support afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, although lakeshore areas including Buffalo Metro and Watertown will be cooler in the mid 50s right at the lakeshore to the lower 60s just inland with onshore flow. A broad upper trough will advance from northern Ontario into southern Quebec tonight, driving a strong cold front across the region.
Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue into the day as a surface cold front slowly passes through the area. Dry weather will return by this evening with weak high pressure in place on Monday.
A few surface obs have also reported reduced visibility with fog/haze associated with the low clouds.
It will be cooler near the lake. A strong cold front marches through this evening, resulting in a cold night ahead. The low level flow will begin to shift northwesterly, bringing much drier air into the region, and skies will clear for a time. The surface pressure gradient will also tighten with high pressure trying to push in from the west, and winds will become somewhat breezy in the afternoon. Winds will die down after sunset, but a secondary cold front will then move in from the north later this evening, with a brief gusty period mainly across northwest Indiana just south of Lake Michigan. This will bring a much cooler air mass, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Dry, but cooler conditions can be expected Monday as weak ridging moves over the area.
A cold front will cross the region tonight through Monday morning bringing a few scattered showers to the region. This front will usher in much cooler temperatures, which will last through the upcoming week.
Cooler and less wind today compared to yesterday as cold front has pushed through the FA overnight. Wed - Sat Main feature this period is an upper level low over Hudson Bay will move into the western Great Lakes Fri then slow shift east on Sat. Concurrently upper ridge building will occur over western North America.
1025 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure will bring sunshine to the area today, with a small chance of a light showers this afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Monday with a few spotty showers. Our region will be in between cold frontal boundaries through tonight. Modeled boundary layer temperatures continue to trend warmer and are indicative of many locations hitting 70 and perhaps some mid 70's in valley locations. An upper level trough swings through the area Monday behind the second cold front. Enough lift looks to be present with this trough for a few more spotty showers.
1028 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure centered just to the east of North Florida supports gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Dewpoints remain in the 60s with temperatures rising through the lower 80s. High pressure centered over north Florida will sag southward over the next several days.
Low pressure north of the Great Lakes will slide east today as high pressure continues to build southeast into the northern U. This is sending another cold front through this morning.
849 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances continue today, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with a crossing cold front. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Dry weather is then expected through at least Monday night as high pressure builds across the region.
Much cooler temperatures prevail, with patchy frost likely away from cloudy areas.
High pressure builds over the region this week leading to another round of well above normal temperatures.
/22/ Today and tonight: Early morning surface analysis still had an 1019mb ridge nosing west along the Gulf coast states. This ridge will weaken today but try to remain stout enough across our CWA to not allow a stalling cold front to drop into our northern most zones by Monday morning. Model consensus stalls the cold front across northern Mississippi late tonight and keeps the associated precipitation north of our CWA through the period. The forecast for today and tonight will remain one of persistence with dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will again top out in the mid 80s at most locations and tonight the increase in humidity will help keep morning lows in the low to mid 60s.
Gradual destabilization is anticipated late this aft/eve as low-level flow strengthens and backs to the SSE-SE (on the eastern periphery of the developing lee cyclone) -- advecting increasingly rich low-level moisture (H85 dwpts 10-14C) beneath a recovering /diurnally replenished/ elevated mixed layer.
428 AM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Negatively-tilted trough continues to rotate northward into SW Canada this morning.
A cold front will work from north to south today, bringing northwest winds and likely helping to keep highs a little cooler than previous days.
925 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Another dry and benign weather day across South Florida with high pressure locked in over the peninsula. /issued 359 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020/ Short Term (Today through Monday evening): Expansive high pressure to the north of the area will continue eastward into the western Atlantic waters, providing subsidence and generally dry conditions across South Florida today and Monday. A warming trend can be expected as the ridge axis becomes situated across the northern portions of South Florida on Monday. By Monday, maximum temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s across the eastern areas, while most of the interior and Gulf Coast should climb into the lower 90s.
Zonal flow will continue before a ridge axis begins to build back in across the southwest.
/issued 359 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020/ Short Term (Today through Monday evening): Expansive high pressure to the north of the area will continue eastward into the western Atlantic waters, providing subsidence and generally dry conditions across South Florida today and Monday. A warming trend can be expected as the ridge axis becomes situated across the northern portions of South Florida on Monday. By Monday, maximum temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s across the eastern areas, while most of the interior and Gulf Coast should climb into the lower 90s.
1030 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure will remain in control today with only passing high clouds overhead. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
Today will be cooler and wet with some rain at most locations in central Idaho and western Montana. A cold front moved across most of the area last night and has stalled out from Lemhi county, Idaho to the Continental Divide near Butte, Montana.
628 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 A cold frontal boundary will move east of the region today with clearing skies. However, a secondary cold front will move through the area Monday with a few spotty showers.
859 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure will continue across the area through mid-week, with temperatures and moisture moderating over the next few days. High pressure remains across the waters through mid-week, with no headlines expected.
With a cooler air mass over the region temperatures will be a little cooler today in spite of the clearing skies. A weak ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest into Monday morning, and with the clear skies and cooler temperatures temperatures will be well below freezing east of the Cascades Monday morning, and frost is possible in many west side valleys under a strong inversion. The ridge shifts east later Monday and a weak front washes out at the coast as it collides with the ridge.
518 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances continue today, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with a crossing cold front. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Dry weather is then expected through at least Monday night as high pressure builds across the region.
Highs will range from the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast to upper 80s-near 90 across the interior. High pressure over the region will maintain favorable boating conditions today.
This boundary remains relatively stationary this morning, before sliding southeast as the trough axis becomes more prominent to our west this afternoon. As the trough axis approaches this evening, expect showers to spread further south across eastern Utah and northwest Colorado, becoming more widespread by 9 PM. High temperatures will drop roughly 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Monday, although, most areas will remain at, or just above normal for early May. Showers taper off by Monday night as heights begin to rise and ridging builds in across the Great Basin.
Monday, the flow aloft will become more zonal under a weak low pressure trough across the Canadian Prairie.
A warm sw flow will produce temperatures near 90 degrees inland on Monday with afternoon seabreezes keeping the beaches a few degrees cooler.
Synoptic pattern features a 500mb ridge to the west moving across the Plains, while upper level troughing is dominating the western US. Temperatures will warm up nicely with low to mid 70s across most of the area and a few degrees cooler in eastern counties due to lingering clouds. A warm front will develop across southern Missouri tomorrow morning and strengthen as cyclogenesis occurs in the vicinity of Oklahoma. CAPE will be near 2000 J/kg with effective shear of 50 knots or better, however CAPE will be elevated above 850-800mb as the area remains in cool sector as warm front remains south.
245 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 Cold front continues to push slowly south this afternoon across east-central Oklahoma/far northwest Arkansas, currently located near a Welty, Coweta, Peggs, Siloam Springs line. Strong to severe storms will likely develop by late afternoon along advancing cold front near the I-44 corridor.
High pressure will build into central Indiana tonight into Monday, drying things out. High pressure will build in and allow skies to become mostly clear overnight.
349 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 It has been another warm but very pleasant day across the region as high pressure remains influencing our region.
Could see a decrease in cloud cover late in the afternoon and evening, but as current cold front /extending from western north Texas to just southeast of the OKC metro/ stalls and begins to lift north overnight, clouds will increase once again. Lowered high temps across northern/central parts of Oklahoma, mainly from just north of OKC to Stillwater where temperatures are not expected to make it out of the lower-middle 70s.
1203 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.
Overnight, convection off the High Plains will continue to push east toward the forecast area as increasing southerly low-level flow will bring an increase in moisture ahead of a weak upper level system moving east across South Dakota. Northwesterly flow aloft will follow the passage of this Monday system with mostly dry conditions expected until later in the week when a strong/cool upper low dives southeast across the region.
1059 AM MDT Sun May 3 2020 18Z TAF CYCLE Low clouds in the wake of a cold front stretched from KRTN-KSXU-KROW have mostly dissipated at 17Z.
This has helped push the surface cold front well south of the CWA in conjunction with a ridge of high pressure sliding toward the Mississippi River. This ridge of high pressure should exert control over our sensible weather tonight into early Monday with a mostly clear sky and light/variable winds. Continued to lean toward the cooler MET MOS guidance based on historical performance in these setups for radiational cooling. Chance of some showers and elevated thunderstorms will increase sharply heading toward the afternoon on Monday from west to east as moisture convergence ramps up along the 850-hPa warm front.
Monday night, a warm front will be lifting northward.
These clouds are associated with remnants of a trough progressing to the east. Dry air will allow skies to clear tonight with high pressure passing by to the north in Ontario. Quiet weather is expected on Monday with high pressure influencing the region. An approaching trough and associated low pressure over the Dakotas will work its way east on Monday, bringing increasing clouds to western portions of the region. Models have trended a bit drier and further west with this system as high pressure over Ontario keeps us rather firmly in the dry air mass.
149 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure will bring sunshine to the area today, with a small chance of a light showers this afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Monday with a few spotty showers. Our region will be in between cold frontal boundaries through tonight. Modeled boundary layer temperatures continue to trend warmer and are indicative of many locations hitting 70 and perhaps some mid 70's in valley locations. An upper level trough swings through the area Monday behind the second cold front. Enough lift looks to be present with this trough for a few more spotty showers.
Gradual destabilization is anticipated late this aft/eve as low-level flow strengthens and backs to the SSE-SE (on the eastern periphery of the developing lee cyclone) -- advecting increasingly rich low-level moisture (H85 dwpts 10-14C) beneath a recovering /diurnally replenished/ elevated mixed layer. This will allow multiple upper level short wave troughs to move over the forecast area. However, most of the forecast area will be under dry air due to upper level ridge over the Great Basin extending onto the Plains.
It will remain breezy east of Boise today where the surface pressure gradient remains tight behind an exiting cold front. Scattered showers will continue near the Nevada border and in the West Central Mountains as a weak upper trough slides through the area.
1040 AM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Negatively-tilted trough continues to rotate northward into SW Canada this morning.
230 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 A cold front will sweep into the area this evening bringing colder air and a few showers for Monday.
240 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Cold front moving in western Wyoming this afternoon.
In addition to only weak forcing along a cold front and a loss of heating, not expecting much activity tonight over the TN Valley other than an increase in rain chances after sunset with potentially a few storms. Any lingering precip from the previous night should be waning before sunrise as a weak cold front shifts south. After sunrise, another cold front will be quickly approaching the area from the west.
238 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Latest RAP/HRRR runs still want to initiate showers/thunderstorms over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide after 3 pm. Temperatures have warmed up into the lower 70s, not enough to break the cap and generate more storms. Late tonight into Monday morning, a cold front will push north to south across the Denver area. Flat upper level ridge will be over the western states with a west- northwest flow aloft over Colorado. A cold front that pushes through Colorado Monday should leave dry and stable conditions in its wake.
Temperatures will be much cooler today, and depending on expected cloud cover, may have to consider some frost advisories for the area for tonight. A weak cold front will dissipate as it moves onshore Monday night.
The potential for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening remains the highlight of tonight's forecast. As an 850mb thermal ridge dominates, afternoon highs Monday around 100 look likely, for most of West Central Texas.
Max temps will be in the mid to upper 80s across the eastern areas, while most of the interior and Gulf Coast climb into the lower 90s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas tonight into Monday. The 12Z NAM progs some haze across portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley Monday so will mention haze across the extreme southeast portions of the CWA Monday as smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico approaches the area.
215 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Current surface map places low over south central Montana, with trof/dry line extending into northeast Montana. Backdoor cold front also located across northwest-central South Dakota. Narrow axis of instability with MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg located between trof and backdoor front. closer to better forcing ahead of upper trof. With closed low development, widespread precipitation will continue through Monday morning east of the Black Hills.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the first part of the work week.
As the ridge axis continues to move east onto the plains, a small disturance moves in from the west this evening. We then enter northwest flow Monday as models suggest that another ridge will begin building across the western CONUS.
Current temps in the mid to upper 70s should continue to climb into the lower 80s in the afternoon. A cold front will move very slowly north to south across Middle TN after 00Z.
/issued 925 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020/ Another dry and benign weather day across South Florida with high pressure locked in over the peninsula. /issued 359 AM EDT Sun May 3 2020/ Short Term (Today through Monday evening): Expansive high pressure to the north of the area will continue eastward into the western Atlantic waters, providing subsidence and generally dry conditions across South Florida today and Monday. A warming trend can be expected as the ridge axis becomes situated across the northern portions of South Florida on Monday. By Monday, maximum temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s across the eastern areas, while most of the interior and Gulf Coast should climb into the lower 90s.
155 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure continues across the area today as the high pressure center shifts east to over the Atlantic.
248 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 A fractured high pressure system straddling north-central Florida supports gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys.
Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Dry weather will continue to prevail into Monday under high pressure.
Temperatures across region are much cooler this morning thanks to cool westerly flow aloft and frontal passage yesterday. Tonight, an upper level ridge will begin to build over the region with an upper level trough deepening over the eastern Pacific.
The line should clear the FA by 22Z this evening as the cold front passes through the area. On Monday, temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s.
350 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 Sfc analysis shows high pressure continuing to ridge wwd over the nrn Gulf of Mexico/Gulf Coast this afternoon, maintaining a moist onshore low-level flow. The early part of the forecast continues the warm, dry and muggy conditions persisting into the early work week thanks to high pressure remaining to our east and weak ridging/zonal flow holding aloft.
A high pressure ridge will move across the area tonight through tomorrow morning with very dry conditions. Combined with light winds and temps should drop back down into the low to mid 40s. The trough/short wave associated with the system as it moves across the area will bring showers and isolated storms to the region. Precip will continue and be likely Monday night as the trough/short wave moves east through the area. With mid level troughiness building after this system, a chance of showers will remain across the area for Tue through Tue night with a small chance on Wed.
327 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Mostly cloudy this evening until a cold front blasts through the area. Overall, notably cooler conditions are expected this week. Lows will be near freezing by the end of the week.
Area 12Z soundings show much drier air abv ~3000 FT, and this air is gradually mixing out the lower clouds per recent vsby satellite images.
We have sided toward the warmer bias corrected guidance for high temperatures given recent performance. High temperatures Monday afternoon are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35/I-37, and in the upper 90s to 102 along the Rio Grande, Winter Garden, and Brush Country regions to the west and southwest.
105 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.