Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper low pressure system is currently tracking east across southern Colorado, with a secondary lobe of energy over the Four Corners. The upper trough will push east-southeast through the day today, and any snowfall early this morning is forecast to come to an end by late morning, save for some light snow across the southern mts that will likely persist through the day. Decided to drop the highlights for Teller and northern El Paso counties early with this forecast package, but will let the remaining highlights ride until they naturally expire at 12z since some snow is still falling in those areas. Moore Upper ridge builds Fri/Sat, bringing warm and dry weather to the region. Ridge flattens on Sun as wly flow aloft increases, though with enhanced downslope, plains will likely be even warmer on Sun despite lowering heights.
A northern stream trough digging southeastward out of Canada caused this southern system to weaken rapidly and shift the heavier snow to the east of southwestern Kansas.
/issued 349 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022/ The upper level trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region yesterday is currently lifting to the northeast away from the forecast area this morning. As of 0830z the strong cold front was positioned along a line from Needmore to Lubbock to White River Lake to Spur.
Ahead of the trough, widespread convection has developed across the area. A cold front has continued to advance southward this morning (to near the I-44 corridor). Gusty, northerly winds are expected in the front's wake with a rather intense cyclone. Severe Weather: This surging cold front should continue to move southward, which should limit the spatiotemporal extent of any appreciable severe weather risk. In addition, patchy freezing drizzle/light icing could occur.
A weak storm system will exit the area this morning, with high pressure rebuilding behind it into the weekend.
657 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 Crossing low pressure may bring isolated flooding and high wind this evening into early Friday. By 6pm this evening the cold front should be passing through eastern Ohio. Flooding and high wind concerns should subside as the strong low pressure system exits east and dry, cold air advances. Snow chances will be limited to the ridges late Friday morning due to upsloping before subsiding as winds shift from the west/southwest and high pressure builds.
Strong cold front extended from Lower MI to central MO and to the TX Pandhandle. With the cold air getting firmly entrenched in the dvn cwa the threat of freezing rain has ended. Tonight: Skies clear and winds diminishing greatly as high pressure settles into the area.
With the southern track of the low moving from Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley today most of the lift with this system will remain to the south therefore keeping the heavy snow out of our area. Far southeast Wisconsin though could see a light dusting of snow this afternoon before the upper level trough clears the area and even drier air moves in.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The 925mb LLJ is kicking back up wind gusts across the RGV as it edges further east off the lower Texas coast over the next few hours, with near Wind Advisory winds at BRO. A reinforcing cold front arrives, with a big punch of CAA and strong northeasterly winds just before midnight, dropping lows into the low 40s across the ranchlands and mid 40s in the RGV by daybreak Friday. Wind Chill values across portions of Brooks and Kenedy counties may dip toward freezing for a couple of hours.
156 AM PST Thu Feb 17 2022 High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions with mainly light winds into the weekend.
349 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 The upper level trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region yesterday is currently lifting to the northeast away from the forecast area this morning. As of 0830z the strong cold front was positioned along a line from Needmore to Lubbock to White River Lake to Spur.
A strong cold front currently well northwest will drop down into the MS river valley toward dawn, then work southeast, moving across the mid-state largely early this evening. A warm front even looks to precede this cold front around midday, moving north up into KY. This cold front/severe storms will move out of here quickly tonight and cold air will settle back into the area with temps back down in the 20s Fri morning. SFC/LL high pressure and flat upper flow will then provide a dry weekend, with a decent warming trend. Upper flow looks to remain largely southwest for several days before an upper trough axis moves into the region late in the week.
Temperatures were seasonably chilly in most areas, except for the Colorado River Valley where stronger winds were resulting in warmer temps due to deep mixing.
Key Points: - Winter Storm Today with near Blizzard Conditions This Morning AT 0830Z an area of sleet and freezing rain was falling from south central Kansas through east central Kansas with precipitation changing over to snow and sleet from Topeka to Valley Falls. SHort range models show a warm nose over east central Kansas that will gradually cool through sunrise with perhaps areas of Anderson county remaining with freezing precipitation through 9 AM. The northern stream trough will phase with the southern stream system today as it moves across the central Plains. The wintry precipitation comes to an end by late afternoon as the upper trough moves through.
Surface temperatures have dropped to below freezing everywhere except for Clinton to Boonville. Precipitation onset has been delayed a bit thanks to some dry air in the low levels, but an area of increased radar returns moving eastward toward the KC metro should help begin moistening the low levels. Freezing rain and sleet initially should become snow across the KC metro sometime around 6 AM, with snow rapidly spreading eastward in coverage between 6 and 9 AM.
High pressure across the waters will slowly sink south through Friday with winds veering from east southeast today to south southwest on Friday. A cold front slips into the northern Gulf of Mexico during Friday bringing a few showers. This front moves south over the weekend as high pressure builds in behind it with breezy northerly winds setting up. The high mixing heights and breezy winds will result in high dispersions today.
Eastern Pacific ridge extending east over NorCal will keep dry and mild weather in place through the weekend. A weak upper low will drop south along the coast Friday, no precip expected, but possibly some mid- upper level clouds.
233 AM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 A warm front will move through the region this afternoon and evening with a chance for some snow showers, which may mix with and change to rain as temperatures warm. A weak cold front will quickly follow tonight and Friday with a slight chance of snow showers possible.
445 AM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 As the trough exits, high pressure will start to push into our region to establish a drier period. Parts of the mountains and valleys will climb to the lower teens to the lower 20s. Low temperatures tonight trend near normal and warmer conditions are on the horizon. There are still a couple little ripples in the flow that could bring some clouds, and a weak cold front early Friday that will just slow the warming.
455 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 CIMSS atmospheric-integrated total precipitable water product reveals dry, sinking, anticyclonic flow over much of the North Atlantic, owed to an expansive high pressure cell centered northeast of Bermuda. Skies are partly cloudy at most island communities, with temperatures in the lower 70s.
Late this morning, a cold front moves into our far northern counties near Central Texas, then sweeps across the remainder of our area this afternoon. Expect low temperatures at or below freezing across the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, low lying areas along the Escarpment, and some spots east of I-35 and north of I-10.
a 700mb trough axis moves through the area tonight. Similar to the previous shift, a band of higher amounts are possible where the highest amounts are currently forecast with the HREF max snowfall amount up to 4 inches or so higher than our current forecast.
North winds will rapidly diminish this afternoon as 1030 mb high pressure takes control.
Overnight temperatures drop to the negative teens, with an approaching warm front bringing warm air advection into the area by early Friday morning. The warm air advection helps bring temperatures into the mid to upper 20s in the morning, but a cold front behind the system crashes temperatures quickly. There also exists the possibility of some convective snow bands to develop along the cold front or just being from the strong cold air advection.
Low pressure that moved through the area last night and brought accumulating snow to the high country, has moved into northwestern New Mexico this morning.
200 PM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 20z surface analysis had low near CYLL with warm front into central NE.
1159 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 For the 17/18Z TAF period, cold front is rapidly shifting SE into our airspace this afternoon as a line of shwrs and tstms remains well ahead of it. Otherwise, the only other aviation concern will continue to be gusty winds both ahead of and behind the cold front with wind speeds ranging from 15-25 kts and higher gusts up to 35 kts through the first half of the TAF period. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to fall behind the advancing cold front with gusty winds quickly veering W/NW and the current Wind Advisory in effect through 6 pm this evening.
Increased shear has moved into the area as expected, with surface winds still on the higher end of things. Do expect temps to be well cooler tomorrow, with highs nearly 20 to 30 degrees cooler than today.
1205 PM PST Thu Feb 17 2022 High pressure brings dry and mild conditions with mainly light winds into the weekend.
The cold front continues to make good progress, having moved through all the forecast area by mid morning.
(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected after the low ceilings clear out of the area early this afternoon.
Main concern will be a threat for freezing fog where recent snowmelt occurred. The combination of a backdoor cold front and a disturbance will bring a round of snow to central New Mexico this morning, with much colder temperatures today.
Warmer temperatures are beginning to creep northward from Alabama and this trend will need to continue for there to be any severe weather this afternoon.
Strong and gusty southerly winds expected through this evening ahead of a cold front at all sites. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 47 28 54 29 / 100 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 44 27 51 27 / 100 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 44 26 52 27 / 100 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 42 25 47 24 / 100 0 0 0 0 NC.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s early this afternoon. Strong upper level ridge will keep storms north of the area the next 7 days.
As the day progresses, this ribbon of moisture is expected be suppressed as an expansive high pressure system sitting over Bermuda builds and an upper-level ridge east of the Yucatan Peninsula spreads north and east over the island chain and surrounding coastal waters. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over the Middle and Upper Keys with mostly sunny skies over the Lower Keys. As the day progresses, the Lower Keys should see building mid-level clouds spreading in from the southeast. As the high pressure system continues moving east away from the northeastern United States, winds will veer to the east to southeast by this afternoon and evening and slacken.
With an slowly building ridge into the area and ~4k ft inversion height temps hovering between -18 and -21C, lake effect snow showers have persisted across the northwest wind snow belts. Upper air pattern consists of a deep trough over the central U. with the trough axis across the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the western U. The trough remains in the Rockies 12z Thu and then moves out into the plains. Continued northwest flow and lake effect snow showers are expected this afternoon into the evening ahead of an approaching high pressure. As the ridge builds in, winds will shift to southerly and conditions are expected to improve to VFR at all terminals. Heavy freezing spray also returns Friday mid-day.
Northerly flow lake effect snow showers will come ashore by 12Z but accums expected to be an inch or less given low inversion heights as drying and subsidence follows in the wake of the low. Given the strong wind fields with this low, blowing and drifting snow could be expected.
The cold front moves quite quickly across the area, but given high PWs areas should see between 1-1. The cold front that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms on Thursday will have pushed off to the east by Friday. The post frontal airmass is much cooler and drier and combined with strong CAA out of the north, Friday will be quite chilly. Temperatures top out in the lower 40s, a 30 degree 24 hour temperature difference.
With high pressure over the east today, cool temperatures are in store. Expect temperatures to drop off a couple more degrees by sunrise with an upper trough dipping in, but it could be a reach for any widespread -25F wind chills given the light winds in the valleys. High pressure will slowly exit to the east today as a front approaches from the west. The southerly breezes ahead of the front and the rising heights aloft as the upper trough exits will usher in some waa. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far east the warmer air will be able to travel today. As low pressure moves east on Friday along the ND/Canadian border, strong, gusty winds will develop across SD with and behind the trailing cold front. The cold front will likely bring some light precipitation with it, as well.
(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected after the low ceilings clear out of the area early this afternoon. (This afternoon through Friday night) An upper trough extends from Minnesota toward Arizona.
(This evening through Friday) Cooler and breezier conditions will persist throughout the rest of this afternoon and into the evening before winds begin to diminish and overnight temperatures drop into the 20s across the area.
BMickelson Previous discussion: A warm front will move through the region this afternoon and evening with a chance for some snow showers, which may mix with and change to rain as temperatures warm. A weak cold front will quickly follow tonight and Friday with a slight chance of snow showers possible.
As the trough exits, high pressure will start to push into our region to establish a drier period. Parts of the mountains and valleys will climb to the lower teens to the lower 20s. Low temperatures tonight trend near normal and warmer conditions are on the horizon. There are still a couple little ripples in the flow that could bring some clouds, and a weak cold front early Friday that will just slow the warming.
1239 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 Crossing low pressure has brought rain and windy weather to area areas for today and tonight.
Incidentally, this could impact the high temperature forecast a bit in the valleys, so we have adjusted these a bit lower to account for the longer duration of fog. High pressure far offshore and low pressure inland will persist.
Southeast winds this morning will increase to 10-15 mph by this afternoon as the high pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues to shifts eastward and the pressure gradient slightly tightens this afternoon.
Closer to home, the strong high pressure cell that has been controlling our fresh to strong northeast to east breezes over the past several days is continuing to move east into the central north Atlantic.
Strong high pressure off the coast will edge a little closer to our area today for milder afternoon temperatures.
Friday night will be mainly clear and cold with high pressure building in from the Great Basin. A closed low will be dropping down the California coast while we remain warm and dry under west to northwesterly flow.
As the thermal trough clears everything out, the column also dries out. Min temps do drop on Friday night with the cold air advection behind the front, and are expected to be in the low to mid 30s north of the I-12 corridor.
High temperatures mostly never made it to the freezing mark across the plains this afternoon. The low level winds will be a mix of normal diurnal patterns and northwesterlies over the the eastern plains both tonight and Friday. For temperatures, there is some warming overnight, with Friday's highs 5-8 C warmer than today's readings. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible at times due to a lee side trough over northeast Colorado.
656 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 Crossing low pressure has brought rain and windy weather to the area tonight.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 47 28 54 29 / 100 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 44 26 51 25 / 100 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 45 26 51 24 / 100 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 42 23 48 20 / 100 10 0 0 0 NC.
The cold front will move through the region with a shift to strong northerly winds behind it. Conditions will be much cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sustained llvl northerly flow will be persistent as a high pressure ridge over central Texas begins to build towards the east. As the strengthening ridge builds from the west, a warm airmass will begin to increase high temperatures over the weekend into the work week.
Highs should reach the low 50s for much of the area, with mid to upper 40s across northern Oklahoma.
310 PM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating moderate northwest flow aloft across region, as last night's system continues to translate across the High Plains, and more eastern Pacific energy translates across the Northern Tier. GOES satellite data is also indicating snow cover across the Palmer Dvd and across the far southeast plains generally south of the Highway 50 Corridor to the Raton Mesa. Induced lee troughing across the plains this evening will lead to developing westerly downslope after midnight and expected warming temperatures for areas west of the I-25 Corridor into early Friday morning. Warming aloft and mostly sunny skies will lead to highs warming back to near seasonal norms, mainly in the 50s across the plains and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from Quebec, back through the Ohio Valley, then into West Tennessee and Mississippi. Short term models and CAMs indicate the showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front will push east of the Mid-South by by early this evening with convection moving into Middle Tennessee and Alabama as early as late this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front will persist into early evening and the current Wind Advisory may be cancelled earlier if winds subside before 9 PM CST. Much colder and drier air will filter in behind the cold front with lows tonight dropping back into the 20s. Temperatures will be cooler in the 40s on Friday.
Gusty southerly winds will pick up ahead of a strong cold front.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Key Messages: -Windy and warmer Friday, rain/snow showers north and east late afternoon/evening.
439 PM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 20z surface analysis had low in central Alberta with warm front into central NE.
643 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 Very warm to record high temperatures this afternoon into evening with warm/dry upper ridging aloft from the N Carib into FL and the Bahamas as seen in water vapor imagery. Moderate to strong southerly low level flow continues to bring the high temp and dew point airmass over the area for a warm and humid night with a combination of radiational land fog and advective sea fog expected to develop overnight and continue through the morning commute Friday. /issued 135 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022/ Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s early this afternoon. Strong upper level ridge will keep storms north of the area the next 7 days.
Upper level low pressure is moving into central New Mexico this afternoon with only a few lingering low clouds along the Arizona/New Mexico border. As the low continues to push eastward, pressure gradients will relax across Arizona leading to decreased wind speeds. Higher pressure takes hold of the weather pattern Friday into the weekend with rising heights leading to warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies.
(This afternoon through Friday night) An upper trough extends from Minnesota toward Arizona.
Seeing more sunshine across the area this afternoon as high pressure builds back over eastern Idaho. This area will feel the influence of an upper- level impulse sweeping through Montana and into Wyoming so more clouds and even a few light snow showers in the high country around Yellowstone can be expected. Afternoon high temps will continue to warm over the next few days with highs tomorrow likely getting into the lower to mid 40s in the southern Snake and Magic Valley. Cooler across the northeastern corner of the forecast area but still 3-7 degrees warmer than today's highs.
954 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 A cold front near louisiana will continue to push eastward and reach the Florida Panhandle tomorrow. The boundary will cause the ridge in the Central Atlantic to slide east and cause winds to veer to the southeast by early Friday morning. The dry mid-levels of the atmosphere, ridging at the surface and aloft suppressed shower activity over the Straits of Florida late this afternoon while the land areas remained pretty dry. High pressure centered over the central Atlatnic waters will continue to slide east tonight through Friday, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeast. Friday, a weak cold front will move over the Florida Panhandle, causing breezes to continue to slacken to light to gentle across the local waters.
539 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 (This evening through Friday) Cooler and breezier conditions will persist throughout the rest of this afternoon and into the evening before winds begin to diminish and overnight temperatures drop into the 20s across the area.
A clear sky and cold temperatures are expected tonight with high pressure in control.
Very cold temperatures are expected tonight with warmer and dry conditions over the weekend. Locations south of Highway 54 down to the Highway 60 corridor could see an additional dusting up to 1 inch. This is due to temperatures well below freezing (currently in the 20s), northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph, and wet roadways. These cold temperatures and additional snowfall falling on wet roadways could result in untreated roadways rapidly freezing into the evening commute.
Although a stray 1-2 gusts above 58 mph have occurred in the area, have elected to not chase and issue a wind advisory, as winds are expected to hover in the low to mid 50s for most of the afternoon, and confidence is low for continued winds to gusts in the 60s.
With an slowly building ridge into the area and ~4k ft inversion height temps hovering between -18 and -21C, lake effect snow showers have persisted across the northwest wind snow belts. Upper air pattern consists of a deep trough over the central U. with the trough axis across the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the western U. The trough remains in the Rockies 12z Thu and then moves out into the plains. Northwest flow lake effect snow showers will gradually taper off late evening into the overnight hours as a high pressure ridge builds in from the west. Heavy freezing spray also returns Friday mid-day.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy despite weak high pressure over the region through Friday night.