Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A somewhat increased chance exists for a shower or thunderstorm this evening as the upper ridge begins to break down, but a better chance comes on Friday. On Friday, a cold front will push through the region, and the combination of CAPE and shear may be marginally conducive for a stronger thunderstorm during the late afternoon or evening hours. Generally unstable, active northwest upper flow will prevail over northeast Montana into the weekend, with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing at times along with more seasonable temperatures following Friday's expected cold frontal passage. Maliawco Upper ridging over the region will help guide warm and mainly dry conditions for today, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out for KOLF, KSDY, or KGDV.
Those should dissipate by 15z or so as the cold front moves in from the west and drier air gets into the valley.
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Water vapor imagery this morning revealing that the upper flow is trending a bit more progressive over the CONUS in part to a strong circulation moving ashore over British Columbia displacing and upper ridge, currently situated over the northern Rockies/intermountain west, to the east.
Clouds will increase from west to east Friday, especially in the afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. With ridging off both coasts, we'll be in between troffing energy in the Northeast, and the desert/intermountain West. Layed out between the two will be a boundary, over which several short waves of energy will shoot west to east between the two primary long wave trofs of energy.
602 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A chilly but sunny start to the day will stay on the cool, but dry side as high pressure works eastward across the Upper Mississippi River valley.
While the associated weak cold front won't make it to northern Arizona until after peak heating today, winds ahead of the front will allow for slightly cooler but still warm temperatures along with aforementioned breezy conditions. This is progressive unstable flow will continue as a large scale trough sets up over western states behind a blocking ridge that develops over the eastern Pacific.
This is warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees short of climatological normals for this time of year. Additional storms may continue to develop into the morning as the low-level jet strengthens overhead. As we transition into more zonal flow aloft, the local area should become moderately unstable ahead of a cold front near or just northwest of our forecast area.
/issued 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ An upper level trough is centered over the Great Lakes Region with northwest flow over the CWA. An upper trough from the west coast moves eastward toward the region on Friday.
High pressure builds back across the region Friday, with a return to E/SE flow for the weekend.
This small trough passes east of the area by early evening, then the ridge builds a bit later tonight and Friday morning. This is in response to a stronger trough moving out of the Pacific Northwest and over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over NE UT and NW CO beneath the PVA area ahead of the approaching trough.
642 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Upper low noted on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over northeast Illinois will continue to track E/NE out of the region today. While the primary lift associated with the upper low will be well east of Illinois, a spoke of energy pivoting down its back side will provide enough lift to trigger isolated showers across northeast Illinois into north-central Indiana this afternoon. with afternoon readings topping out in the lower 70s.
Storm chances will increase this evening/tonight as convection originating across the higher terrain of New Mexico propagates east and southeastward, perhaps evolving into a complex or two. However, heights will be rising today as short wave ridging moves more overhead. Moisture will undergo good recovery today as surface ridging moves east. Upper flow will start to back on Friday with upper level troughing moving into the southwestern CONUS.
A cooler and drier airmass has moved into the region this morning with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Over the next 24 hours an upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward across the Ohio Valley toward the northeastern CONUS.
127 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A high amplitude trough covers the eastern CONUS, with ridging over the west, including a weak wave pushing into the northern plains. Surface winds are southerly, between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. More waves will flatten the upper ridge, bringing scattered storms on Friday.
Clouds will increase from west to east Friday, especially in the afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. With ridging off both coasts, we'll be in between troffing energy in the Northeast, and the desert/intermountain West. Layed out between the two will be a boundary, over which several short waves of energy will shoot west to east between the two primary long wave trofs of energy. Around 00 UTC, cloud coverage will decrease with loss of daytime heating, and winds will relax as high pressure moves into the area and pressure gradient decreases.
A somewhat increased chance exists for a shower or thunderstorm this evening as the upper ridge begins to break down, but a better chance comes on Friday. On Friday, a cold front will push through the region, and the combination of CAPE and shear may be marginally conducive for a stronger thunderstorm during the late afternoon or evening hours. Generally unstable, active northwest upper flow will prevail over northeast Montana into the weekend, with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing at times along with more seasonable temperatures following Friday's expected cold frontal passage.
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 H5 pattern from earlier this evening had a trough of low pressure extending from central Ontario, south to the lower Mississippi Valley. Further west, a ridge of high pressure extended from the intermountain west, north into northern portions of Alberta and British Columbia. At the surface, High pressure was located over southern Kansas with a nice pressure gradient extending from south central Nebraska west to the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming. Thunderstorms will track east once again overnight across mainly southern Nebraska where the nose of the low level jet is oriented.
VFR to prevail amid light northerly SFC winds around high pressure over ERN OK and a daytime fair weather cu field based around 5K FT. Clear sky and nearly calm winds expected this evening and through the overnight period as the high moves east into TN, with a light southeast flow expected mid morning FRI. /issued 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the region, with another weak cool front over NE TX. By Friday afternoon, the high will move east of the region, with low pressure developing across the Central Plains. Thus, more humid afternoon highs in the lower 90s, and overnight lows in the mid to sometimes upper 70s expected.
210 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A cold front passed through the area this morning, and now we have a lovely sunny day with cooler than normal temperatures. Friday night will be pleasant with lows mainly in the lower 60s.
338 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Dry weather will continue though the end of the week as high pressure dominates the Mid-South. High temperatures will in the lower 80s with lower dewpoints.
206 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure and drier air will continue building into the area overnight.
The cold front is finally to our east and drier air is continuing to move into the area. With the drier and cooler air, overnight lows will range from the mid 40s to low 50s. Thanks to high pressure along with the dry and cool air, tomorrow will be a fantastic day. Highs will be in the lower 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s making it feel like a nice fall day!.
1039 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Storms are still expected to develop on the High Plains west of the area and develop into a complex that moves into and across the fa later this evening and overnight.
Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than the last few nights since dew points will remain in the U50/L60s. Tomorrow will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today as surface winds veer out of the WSW and dewpoints fall into the 40s in SE New Mexico and the western mountain areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler this weekend, despite southwest surface flow, as an upper trough passes north of the forecast area.
453 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Periodic showers and thunderstorms will plague the region through tonight with approach and passage of a cold front. Building high pressure will promote dry conditions for Friday, with temperature rebounding to near climatological average by the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms continue late this afternoon ahead of a cold front, while clearing and an attendant decrease in instability will limit precipitation in the front's wake.
The 500mb subtropical ridge across northern Mexico extending into southwest Texas tonight will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight through Fri night. Southeast to south winds will return tonight and warmer temperatures will develop across the CWA Friday especially across the western portions with highs near 100 degrees across the Rio Grande plains.
Although, the predominant wind direction will be easterly on Friday, mesoscale/island interactions, as well as any preexisting boundaries, could result in northeasterly light winds which are favorable for cumulus lines to form along the islands and nearshore waters, especially along the lower Keys.
136 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Periodic showers and thunderstorms will plague the region today with approach and passage of a cold front. Building high pressure will promote dry conditions for Friday, with temperature rebounding to near climatological averages by the weekend. However, steepening mid and upper- level lapse rates supported by cold advection with the encroaching trough, will aid in ML CAPE values around 500 J/kg this afternoon. This, combined with effective shear values near 30 knots ahead of the cold front should support isolated incidents of severe wind and hail, especially for areas that experience better clearing in cloud cover.
1137 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Water vapor imagery this morning revealing that the upper flow is trending a bit more progressive over the CONUS in part to a strong circulation moving ashore over British Columbia displacing and upper ridge, currently situated over the northern Rockies/intermountain west, to the east.
Low pressure over Ontario will continue to move east and take the clouds and rain with it. Another clipper type system will move across the UP Friday afternoon and the trailing cold front will sink south late in the day.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the eastern half of the country and a ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front was stretched across South Texas just south of our CWA. As the upper trough moves away to the east the flow will become weakly anticyclonic. Friday the low level flow will become more southerly and high temperatures will jump up to a few degrees above normal.
The continued dry airmass will lead to efficient warming with the high sun angle. The forecast period will start off tomorrow night with zonal flow aloft across the lower CONUS and low- level sub-tropical ridging extending from the Bahamas into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Friday looks to continue the trend to start the day, as an area of low pressure approaches from the northwest.
As the upper ridge axis to our west continues to weaken overnight, the flow aloft will become more zonal.
348 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure at the surface today making way for fair weather and very comfortable conditions at the surface. By Friday the mid level flow becomes a bit more zonal as the mid level trough that came through the area Thursday moves east and the trailing ridge also moves east with it.
High pressure will move through the Ohio Valley tonight and Friday.
1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Periodic showers and thunderstorms will plague the region today with approach and passage of a cold front. Building high pressure will promote dry conditions for Friday, with temperature rebounding to near climatological averages by the weekend. However, steepening mid and upper- level lapse rates supported by cold advection with the encroaching trough, will aid in ML CAPE values around 500 J/kg this afternoon. This, combined with effective shear values near 30 knots ahead of the cold front should support isolated incidents of severe wind and hail, especially for areas that experience better clearing in cloud cover.
1249 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Low pressure will move away from the region today as high pressure and drier air builds in.
High pressure will build over the area overnight and Friday.
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Clearing and drying tonight as high pressure skirts across the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Friday will rebound into the lower to middle 70s. Intense upper low overhead into wrn OH will lift out rapidly through the ern lakes this evening as rain diminishes quickly w-e.
Alongside the higher PWATS, we have low level lapse rates (0-3km) in the 7. At the start of the period, a closed low is centered over eastern Quebec, with quasi-zonal flow across much of the CONUS.
404 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Widespread rain showers this afternoon and tonight with upper trough moving overhead.
Alongside the higher PWATS, we have low level lapse rates (0-3km) in the 7.
Low end VFR scattered looks like the prevailing condition elsewhere, though would not surprise to see a few periods of broken conditions as the southeast flow turns up the low level moisture a smidge.
359 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A cold front will cross the coast tonight, followed by a drying trend and high pressure this weekend.
Friday-Friday night: A slightly stronger trough axis rotates into the region after midnight and chances may increases overnight. Behind this there may be a lull in coverage before an even stronger mid level trough passes through the region.
406 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Strong low over the Great Lakes will continue to exit to the north and east tonight with high pressure ridging over the plains spreading east in the Ohio river valley tonight. Ongoing shower activity will come to an end by early this evening as subsidence overspreads the area behind the exiting trough. However, we should see some lows into the mid 40s tonight and given the time of year, at least some patchy fog will be possible in the cooler spots tonight. Friday night will see another cool night but with the ridge sliding east, return flow may allow for slightly better ridge/valley splits. A less amplified trough will then progress over the eastern CONUS for midweek through Thursday as well.
1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A chilly but sunny start to the day will stay on the cool, but dry side as high pressure works eastward across the Upper Mississippi River valley.
A 40 to 50 kt low level jet will develop across much of the area overnight, and will see winds pick up a bit, more so in the higher elevations. With continuing warm air advection, Friday will be an even warmer day with highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: Latest TAFB surface analysis has a cold front moving down the Florida peninsula. As the front washes out and dissipates winds will become more zonal aloft and more easterly as we get into the weekend as high pressure will build to the north.
Skies are clearing as a cold front exits to our east and drier air moves in behind it.
A cold front will drop into the area Friday night bringing a slightly cooler air mass, and keeping the risk of isolated showers/t-storms going in our east thru the night.
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Periodic showers and thunderstorms will plague the region through tonight with approach and passage of a cold front. Building high pressure will promote dry conditions for Friday, with temperature rebounding to near climatological average by the weekend. However, steepening mid-level lapse rates supported by cold advection with the encroaching trough will aid in ML CAPE values around 500 J/kg ahead of the cold front. Cold-frontal passage will end any severe threat this evening, however scattered showers will linger through tonight as the upper trough continues eastward.
/Issued 1029 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ High pressure will continue to build in from the west today. /Issued 344 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ A cold front and associated upper level trough move across the region today, ending all precip chances and clearing things out as a drier airmass moves over the area.
856 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Cooling will advance inland through Friday as a weak trough forces stronger onshore flow and helps deepen the marine layer, spreading nocturnal low clouds farther into the valleys. A patch of higher clouds was drifting east above the low cloud layer as well, which was visible over much of San Diego and Imperial Counties. Most areas should clear today with the low cloud deck mostly less than 1K FT thick, but the stronger onshore flow may keep, or return the low clouds to some coastal areas that do clear, late in the afternoon.
As the high moves to the east of the area this evening. Attention will once again to turn to the high plains overnight on Friday as an MCS is expected to develop.
323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Large upper low looming just to the east this afternoon, with partly sunny skies over a scattered to broken cumulus field on visible satellite imagery. Minimum temperatures by dawn will be in the upper 40s in the east, and lower 50s in the west where the winds will have started to pick up a southerly component on the back side of the ridge.
Ample instability/shear balance may promote an organized linear complex or two capable of strong/severe wind gusts, especially west of the Flint Hills corridor, and across generally the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of KS amidst cooler mid-level temperatures.
Air mass remains moist and unstable today under A weak upper trough and another round of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening, especially in southern areas.
1140 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Water vapor imagery this morning revealing that the upper flow is trending a bit more progressive over the CONUS in part to a strong circulation moving ashore over British Columbia displacing and upper ridge, currently situated over the northern Rockies/intermountain west, to the east.
By Friday night, convergence from the low level jet will be into southern Iowa, therefore the best chance for convection will remain in the south.
However, heights will be rising today as short wave ridging moves more overhead. Moisture will undergo good recovery today as surface ridging moves east. Upper flow will start to back on Friday with upper level troughing moving into the southwestern CONUS.
00Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Water Vapor/IR Satellite trends depict an upper level trough over the Eastern United States with northwest flow aloft present across the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. /issued 338 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ Dry weather will continue though the end of the week as high pressure dominates the Mid-South. High temperatures will in the lower 80s with lower dewpoints.
/through Friday night/ High pressure on the backside of the persistent eastern CONUS trough pattern is bringing the Four State region another relatively stellar weather day (considering the calendar says almost mid June).
1045 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure and drier air will continue building into the area overnight.
The front will push south of the local waters tonight, trailed by northerly winds early Friday and dry conditions as high pressure builds north of the region.
A cold front passed through the area this morning, and now we have a lovely sunny day with cooler than normal temperatures. Friday night will be pleasant with lows mainly in the lower 60s.
Not much going on overnight, as winds turn more southerly as high pressure passes to our south. Large upper low looming just to the east this afternoon, with partly sunny skies over a scattered to broken cumulus field on visible satellite imagery. Minimum temperatures by dawn will be in the upper 40s in the east, and lower 50s in the west where the winds will have started to pick up a southerly component on the back side of the ridge.
Clear skies and a near calm wind the remainder of the night should allow for strong radiational cooling of our dry airmass and lead to cooler than normal temperatures, in the 50s at most locations by morning. The continued dry airmass will lead to efficient warming with the high sun angle. The forecast period will start off tomorrow night with zonal flow aloft across the lower CONUS and low- level sub-tropical ridging extending from the Bahamas into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Tomorrow continues to look pleasant with temps a bit warmer. VFR conditions with just a few mid-level clouds as high pressure dominates the region.
Based on the aforementioned analysis, opted to have the highest probabilities for showers/storms across western Oklahoma/adjacent north Texas and across north central Oklahoma. Best coverage of precipitation likely across far northern Oklahoma toward and after 12Z as mid-level trough progresses over region but this activity will mainly be elevated showers with embedded TSRA possible.
511 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure and drier air will continue building into the area overnight.
404 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS, from the Great Lakes to the Gulf coast east of the lower MS Valley.
Temperatures are expected to be 2-5 degrees cooler tomorrow, with a larger drop for northern areas where increasing cloud cover and scattered precipitation will limit daytime heating. West to northwest flow will set up over the area as a series of troughs and other weak disturbances move through. Above normal temperature and mild nights will allow the high elevation snow pack to melt at an accelerated rate through the end of the week.
700 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Clearing and drying tonight as high pressure skirts across the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Friday will rebound into the lower to middle 70s. Intense upper low overhead into wrn OH will lift out rapidly through the ern lakes this evening as rain diminishes quickly w-e.
736 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure and drier air will continue building into the area overnight.
Strong low over the Great Lakes will continue to exit to the north and east tonight with high pressure ridging over the plains spreading east in the Ohio river valley tonight. Ongoing shower activity will come to an end by early this evening as subsidence overspreads the area behind the exiting trough. However, we should see some lows into the mid 40s tonight and given the time of year, at least some patchy fog will be possible in the cooler spots tonight. Friday night will see another cool night but with the ridge sliding east, return flow may allow for slightly better ridge/valley splits. A less amplified trough will then progress over the eastern CONUS for midweek through Thursday as well.
1036 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a short wave upper level ridge rooted near Belize which reaches northeast across Cuba to near the Bahamas. The low level gradient is weak, with the western extent of the ridge axis reaching across the Bahamas. 00" across Upper Sugarloaf, with lots of areas of the Lower Keys picking up two inches of radar derived rainfall. The Lower Keys are definitely stabilized at this time, although a deep enough collision may be able to overcome the low level inhibition.