Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The latest NAM has isolated convection developing across the lower Texas coast this afternoon. the 500mb subtropical ridge across northwest Texas will provide subsidence across south Texas today through Friday.
Dry southwesterly flow will prevail over our region through Friday as anomalous troughing lingers over the Pacific Northwest.
257 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today through Friday.
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Today the much anticipated large amplitude upper level ridge will start to build into the region leading to our hottest stretch of the season.
1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 /18Z TAFS/ VFR conditions should prevail through 18Z Fri, except for potentially in the 11Z Fri to 15Z Fri time-period along the I-10 corridor where MVFR CIGs could occur, with JCT having the higher likelihood than SOA of getting those MVFR CIGs.
Heat indices will climb into the lower to middle 90s over the next several days as the very warm and humid conditions persist.
1134 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Upper level analysis shows a ridge building over the central CONUS, with an area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and associated trough dropping down the west coast. This is creating moist southwest flow from the southwest US into the high plains. At the surface, a stationary and weak frontal boundary extends from central WY to along the SD/NE state line, with an area of low pressure along the boundary over east central WY. For today, the upper ridge will continue to build with warming temperatures and increasing heights. Could see something over the higher Black Hills or Bear Lodge Mountains, but should be short lived.
Upper level analysis shows ridging over the high plains, with low pressure along the Pacific NW coast.
Because of the lack of cloud cover, overall temperature trends are running cooler than yesterday at this time by 2 to 6 degrees, with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s at 8 am. An upper level trough persists along the west coast, which will maintain onshore flow and keep this afternoon temperatures in the below-normal range with highs ranging from the upper 60s, lower 70s at the coast, to the 70s and 80s inland. The trough is forecast to weaken some over the weekend, which will allow high temperatures to increase slightly. Upper low over the Willamette Valley (Oregon) this morning, bringing a deeper nocturnal inversion but with very patchy cigs this morning. SFO Bridge Approach. Rebuilding high pressure will strengthen the northerly gradient and bring stronger winds across the waters through the remainder of the work week.
220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico today, will expand into the Central Plains through Friday. Otherwise, the ridge will suppress storms from forming, resulting in dry and warm weather through Friday afternoon. Lows tonight look to be around the 70 degree mark, with highs Friday in the low 90s.
There should be a break in the rainfall on Friday morning with a chance for shower activity in the afternoon though any activity will be fighting an incoming ridge.
Upper level ridge building over western Texas and New Mexico will spread eastward tomorrow and through the weekend.
1148 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The forecast area will remain sandwiched between low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and high pressure over the southern Plains. Triple digits are possible Friday in the lower desert canyons of southeast Utah.
This disturbance will take a more northerly track than the one today though, and there are also indications of warmer mid-level air that could hinder development.
Temperatures are cooler than yesterday in the wake of a cold front that moved through late yesterday and overnight. A weak cold front was passing through our CWA from west to east during the night with clouds and sprinkles, and a wind-shift to west/northwest. Today will therefore be a little cooler than yesterday.
Cloud cover and the rain have played havoc with the high temperature forecast today, especially along and south of highway 2. If it quickly goes away, it should be much warmer than today.
322 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 A 595 dm 500-mb ridge and associated positive height anomalies centered just west of the area will broaden and expand northeast into the weekend. Meanwhile, retrograding upper low will move across Texas the latter half of the weekend and begin to drift north across the area early-mid week. Although isolated convection could occur as the upper low moves west across Texas, the greatest coverage should occur once aforementioned upper level low move over coupled with anomalous moisture (PWATs near 90th percentile).
The HREF, along with support from buffer soundings suggest the low clouds could continue tonight into the late morning hours on Friday. A few models are showing cooler temps with readings in the low to mid 80s, especially in the eastern CWA.
1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An upper level ridge will build north across the central and northern Plains late this week providing for abundant sun and above normal high temperatures. The ridge axis is largely atop or east of the forecast area by late afternoon today, thus southwesterly flow should largely prevail.
126 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today.
A stout upper level low is positioned over the Pacific Northwest with mid level troughing across the western half of the country. Further south, a subtropical ridge has begun to build out of Mexico and over the western part of the state. With the ridge to the west and NE upper level flow aloft, rain chances dry up for Friday. Afternoon high temperatures Friday will be a degree or two warmer than what they were today with the loss of cloud cover and rain cooled outflows.
210 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today through Friday.
130 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Typical early summer conditions continue to dominated the weather picture as high pressure just east of the 4-corners area and weak upper level low pressure to our north keeps generally seasonable warm and mild conditions over Southern California.
344 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Meridionally oriented 500 mb mid level ridge will strengthen across the western Atlantic. A low pressure trough will advance from the northern Caribbean Sea towards south Florida, bringing a corresponding increase in deep layer moisture. The higher totals are expected towards the Gulf coast. Enough diurnal heating is expected to keep temperatures around seasonal normals, although if cloud cover becomes more widespread it's possible we could be a little cooler than currently forecast. Mid to upper ridging will become increasingly prominent from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast CONUS. However temperature readings may start to creep up some with the ridge in place.
A stray shower/thunderstorm is possible the rest of the afternoon and evening across mainly central and east-central KS, as modest mid-level warm advection persists along eastern fringe of warmer mid-level temperatures. Later tonight into Friday morning, cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm complex diving south/southwest into east/northeast KS, into pool of ample low-level moisture/instability along the eastern fringe of warmer mid-level temperatures.
1201 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure over the region today becomes centered off the southeast coast into weekend.
Sfc ridging influences stationed off to our east. Upper level ridging influences prevailing, but enough moisture beneath it to support mainly iso to sct shwrs/tstms during the afternoon and evening hrs. If one leans toward the latest GFS solution, that means a little better chance of shwrs/tstms as Independence Day approaches as it has upper level ridging influences weakening with a more swly flow pattern aloft developing versus the latest ECMWF solution that keeps upper level riding in place.
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 So far a quiet start to the day as convection coming off the high plains has dissipated before making it to the local area. expect sunny skies and summerlike temperatures across the region as an upper level ridge begins to amplify across the plains. A hot and dry start to the extended periods is expected across the region as high pressure aloft will help to suppress convection and promoted above normal temperatures across the region. expect an approaching upper level trough to begin to flatten the upper level ridge.
Upper low continuing to travel southward from western TN, providing upper level support for convection today. With the upper low overhead this evening and overnight, have in mention of isolated showers and storms tonight with increasing chances during the day Friday.
329 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 High pressure extended from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coastal states while a weak warm front extended across northern Ohio. To the west, low pressure was across the central Rockies. The warm front will lift north of the region tonight as weal low pressure tracks east across the Great Lakes.
Because of the lack of cloud cover, overall temperature trends are running cooler than yesterday at this time by 2 to 6 degrees, with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s at 8 am. An upper level trough persists along the west coast, which will maintain onshore flow and keep this afternoon temperatures in the below-normal range with highs ranging from the upper 60s, lower 70s at the coast, to the 70s and 80s inland. The trough is forecast to weaken some over the weekend, which will allow high temperatures to increase slightly. SFO Bridge Approach. Rebuilding high pressure will strengthen the northerly gradient and bring stronger winds across the waters through the remainder of the work week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 93 70 90 / 20 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 89 68 89 / 10 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 92 69 90 / 10 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 87 65 88 / 10 20 20 30.
730 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today through Friday.
Latest RAP40 analysis shows an inverted trof extending from the Keys up the FL Peninsula, roughly paralleling the wrn wall of the Gulf Stream. Isold convection east of the axis showing little sign of surviving outside of the warmer Gulf Stream waters, though convection is a bit more robust over the nrn Bahamas due to a localized H85-H50 vort couplet and a weak H30-H20 jet streak. Light E/NE flow on the leading edge of the trof will gradually shift to the E/SE overnight as the axis drifts west around the srn flank of a large high pres ridge over the Deep/Mid South. Weak inverted sfc/low lvl trof over the lcl Atlc will push acrs the FL Peninsula overnight.
Broad high pressure north of Florida will keep generally easterly winds in place through the upcoming weekend, with winds turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.
320 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Broad mid to upper level ridging will continue to be over Colorado through this weekend. A Denver cyclone has developed on the north side of the Denver metro this afternoon likely aided by the relative cooling under the mountain wave cloud that stuck around for much of the morning. Tomorrow will be another hot day as the ridge builds even stronger.
1045 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today through Friday.
526 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center to drift over nrn NM next 24 hrs with moisture continuing to spread into wrn NM. Convection to redevelop over the higher terrain aft 18Z, with cell motions generally slower and more erratic due to the lighter winds aloft.
/issued 344 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ Zonally oriented 500 mb mid level ridge will strengthen across the western Atlantic. A low pressure trough will advance from the northern Caribbean Sea towards south Florida, bringing a corresponding increase in deep layer moisture. The higher totals are expected towards the Gulf coast. Enough diurnal heating is expected to keep temperatures around seasonal normals, although if cloud cover becomes more widespread it's possible we could be a little cooler than currently forecast. Mid to upper ridging will become increasingly prominent from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast CONUS. However temperature readings may start to creep up some with the ridge in place.
Although winds atop the mountain ridges continue to be gusty, all the valleys have subsided.
/issued 322 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ A 595 dm 500-mb ridge and associated positive height anomalies centered just west of the area will broaden and expand northeast into the weekend. Meanwhile, retrograding upper low will move across Texas the latter half of the weekend and begin to drift north across the area early-mid week. Although isolated convection could occur as the upper low moves west across Texas, the greatest coverage should occur once aforementioned upper level low move over coupled with anomalous moisture (PWATs near 90th percentile).
/Issued 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ More of the same this afternoon and evening, as ridging continues to build across the Panhandles with southwesterly surface winds helping us warm up this afternoon, mainly into the 90s. Another ridge riding disturbance within this flow has kicked off scattered showers and thunderstorms across New Mexico, with these possibly moving into the western Panhandles once again. Additionally, both the mid levels are slightly warmer and deep shear is a bit weaker than yesterday, so think that hail will be marginally severe, if that. As for other sensible weather, the pattern of continued surface lee troughiness across E CO should allow at least a light southerly or southwesterly breeze to continue tonight and tomorrow afternoon, so have leaned on warmer guidance.
Broad mid to upper level ridging will continue to be over Colorado through this weekend. A Denver cyclone has developed on the north side of the Denver metro this afternoon likely aided by the relative cooling under the mountain wave cloud that stuck around for much of the morning. Tomorrow will be another hot day as the ridge builds even stronger.
Upper level ridge is expected to further weaken on Friday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during the afternoon hours. Area will come less under the overall dry conditions of the eastern periphery of plains ridge as it retrogrades, followed by an inverted trof advancing west across the region.
Friday will be more of the same as ridging continues and temperatures remain warm. Highs should again peak in the 80s and 90s, perhaps a few degrees warmer than today.
Area will come less under the overall dry conditions of the eastern periphery of plains ridge as it retrogrades, followed by an inverted trof advancing west across the region.
535 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Strong daytime heating will push high temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s over the next several days.
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The local forecast area will remain beneath a broad weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge overnight, with the remnants of a convectively-induced vort max expected to drop slowly southward across western TN/northern MS. A troughing west/ridging west pattern will otherwise be present into the late week. Despite more ridging closer to this region, sufficient moisture and daytime heating produced instability will bring isolated showers and storms to the area tomorrow.
706 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today through Friday.
Sfc ridging influences stationed off to our east. Upper level ridging influences prevailing, but enough moisture beneath it to support mainly iso to sct shwrs/tstms during the afternoon and evening hrs. If one leans toward the latest GFS solution, that means a little better chance of shwrs/tstms as Independence Day approaches as it has upper level ridging influences weakening with a more swly flow pattern aloft developing versus the latest ECMWF solution that keeps upper level riding in place. Late this afternoon, an upper trough axis extends southward through western TN. Further east across CSV, will stick to vcnty for now as they are further from the aformentioned trough axis.
/issued 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico today, will expand into the Central Plains through Friday. Otherwise, the ridge will suppress storms from forming, resulting in dry and warm weather through Friday afternoon. Lows tonight look to be around the 70 degree mark, with highs Friday in the low 90s.
Low pressure will continue to advance into the Pacific Northwest tomorrow. Expect slightly cooler temperatures across the area.
341 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 A slow moving low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain dry, breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend.
Another hot and humid day can be expected across the area today with an upper ridge nosing in from the west. Quiet weather should continue tonight with the ridge still in control.
411 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Under partly cloudy skies and light east to southeast winds, temperatures are in the lower 80s across the island chain. Meanwhile, only isolated showers are being detected on the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys, with the majority of the cells on the distant waters beyond 40 nm south of the Lower Keys.
Upper level ridge is expected to further weaken on Friday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during the afternoon hours again. Area will come less under the overall dry conditions of the eastern periphery of plains ridge as it retrogrades, followed by an inverted trof advancing west across the region.
257 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Latest satellite imagery picking up on some high clouds across northern Carbon County and portions of Converse County keeping many under clear skies and cooler conditions from the previous daytime highs. Our current ridging pattern continues across the region maintaining a fairly consistent forecast from the previous days. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the Panhandle from the mid to upper 90s, a 100 degree temperature may even be in sight. Over the mountains will be from the 60s on the highest peaks to mid 80s in the valleys.
237 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 A mid/upper ridge across the southern Rockies is progged to build north and east across the region through the weekend. These LLWS conditions will abate just before sunrise as the low level jet begins to mix.
A slow moving low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain dry, breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area into the upcoming weekend. The large-scale pattern consisting of a closed low over the PacNW and a warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft over Utah remains nearly unchanged since yesterday. Tomorrow evening and overnight, a shallow dry cold front will sag into northern Utah. This cold front, coupled with some midlevel moisture spreading into Utah from the south which will lead to increase cloud cover, should cool temperatures a bit for the weekend.
Fortunately, bulk shear will be rather weak in the 15-20kt range and wet bulb zero up around 13kft (warmer -melting bigger hailstones as they fall).
246 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today through Friday.
400 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 The latest surface map features broad high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with a stationary frontal boundary draped from the Midwest to along the northern portion of the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level ridge is centered across the New Mexico/Texas border, with an upper level low pressure center spiraling across the Pacific Northwest. True summertime conditions will prevail through the short term, as upper level ridging controls across eastern Kentucky.
High pressure will continue for the first half of the weekend though we are monitoring a westward moving wave along the Gulf Coast.
Areas near and South of Memphis is where we will see the highest pops today. Highs will likely be in the low to middle 80s for much of the area. This is arguably one of the toughest times of the year to forecast the weather beyond 24 hours because mesoscale features that are not resolved by models often dictate the weather as opposed to larger scale frontal boundaries or easily depicted upper level troughs and ridges. The exception is when the Bermuda high becomes parked along the East coast and a strong ridge in in place over the Eastern US. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s to low 90s with morning lows in the low 70s.
350 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Upper level ridging will build into the region today, resulting in the beginning of a well advertised heat wave lasting into the weekend. With 850 mb temperatures ranging from 20 to 24 C across the area by afternoon, looking at highs into the lower/mid 90s through the Missouri River corridor - to upper 80s over east central SD/southwestern MN where mixing temps are cooler and more cloud cover may exist. Afternoon dew points are expected to be in the lower 70s, and this in combination with the aforementioned temperatures will result in heat indices of 95 to 103 across the area. Lows will be much above normal, only dropping into the lower 70s.
1156 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and moderate humidity to the region today through Friday.
354 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 An upper level ridge will build across the central plains leading to continued hot and dry conditions. The upper level ridge will dominate our weather pattern, which will likely keep most if not all of our area dry through the weekend. The main concern will be the high heat index values of 100-105, and the possibility that we may need to issue a heat advisory if these expected heat index values get any higher. The highest heat index values will likely be across our eastern zones where dewpoints will be the highest.
Once the MCV shifts southeast of the region later today, an upper level ridge will continue to build over a large portion of the central and southern U. Highs should warm into the lower 90s over the weekend. Models continue in agreement that mid/upper level ridging will bring generally rain-free days and typical summertime temperatures through the first part of the work week.
342 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 A pattern more typical of summer has become established with an expansive upper high/ridge currently centered in the southern Rockies and the main band of westerlies across the north central and northeastern tier of the CONUS where the primary baroclinic zone resides. Also a key player is an upper low now in northern MS. The upper low will move southwestward over the next 24 hours into the lower MS Valley. The upper ridge will build northeastward with the center shifting into the central Rockies/central high plains region. Being on the eastern periphery of the anticyclone aloft will place us in north-northeast flow aloft.
315 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Summer is definitely here finally and likely to stick around through much of the next seven days, with fairly normal summer conditions expected on the majority of days given the upper level ridge across the south central United States. Any diurnal thunderstorm chances will remain isolated and focused on the high terrain areas of northwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma.
Weak upper low remains over the region and that has helped keep lapse rates quite steep. This weak upper low is expected to move little farther southwest on Friday. Late this afternoon, an upper trough axis extends southward through western TN. Further east across CSV, will stick to vcnty for now as they are further from the aformentioned trough axis.