Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPS THERE PEAKED IN THE LOW 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. MEANWHILE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND CHANGE TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO REACH THE INTL BORDER IN THE 04Z TIME FRAME AND RACE SOUTH EXITING THE SRN FCST AREA BY 12Z. FRIDAY WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE/TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU SRN MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR YET ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN OK/NRN TX TONIGHT AS A LOBE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW AS IT HEADS EAST TWD THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EAST.
730 PM MST WED APR 20 2016 A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THURSDAY. A SERIES OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BLOCKED ATMOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CONUS WAS FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS SLOWLY EJECTING EAST. /309 PM MST WED APR 20 2016/ A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS WILL PEAK INTO THE MID 90S.
A LULL IS FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THURSDAY'S HIGHS ARE 3-4 C ARE WARMER THAN CURRENT HIGHS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS COLORADO.
THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE.
1237 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 AVIATION SOME RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TIMING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM. FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAVORING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FRIDAY.
T/TD SPREADS ARE FAIRLY NARROW AND WITH DELAY IN THE HIGH CLOUDS THE EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MID WEST WILL FINALLY EXIT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND CHANGE TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO REACH THE INTL BORDER IN THE 04Z TIME FRAME AND RACE SOUTH EXITING THE SRN FCST AREA BY 12Z. FRIDAY WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE/TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU SRN MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN FRIDAY NIGHT.
1254 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
1051 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY W/WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MIGHT BE THE WAY TO GO AS WAS THE CASE TODAY HIGHLIGHTING THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
858 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS 00Z TAF PERIOD.
745 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT PASSES TO OUR WEST WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT IN WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OPENS INTO A WAVE AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
617 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER E-CNTRL NEB/W-CNTRL IA AND WAS BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY HEIGHT RISES AND WARMER TMPS SHOULD BE THE STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
More sunshine will result in warmer daytime temperatures over the next few days.
[Through 00z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with some increase in high clouds well ahead of an approaching cold front. Upper pattern across the CONUS will finally become more progressive on Thursday, with the upper low over Colorado moving into the Upper Midwest on Thursday. As the upper trough axis moves eastward as well, deep layer moisture will begin to increase over the forecast area, with a few showers possible Thursday afternoon over the western counties. With the approach of the associated cold front Thursday night into Friday, rain chances will continue to increase.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.
756 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 AVIATION SOME RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TIMING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM. FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS SHIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S SO A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FEEL LIKE THE HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WHERE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA.
LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AFTER 06Z. LOWERED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW PULLS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT.
807 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT PASSES TO OUR WEST WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT IN WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OPENS INTO A WAVE AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
927 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
1011 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
440 PM PDT WED APR 20 2016 Strong high pressure will continue over the Pacific Northwest into Thursday leading to generally dry and very warm weather.
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW/VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT/THU. TAKING A MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AS THE LOW CENTER MEANDERS EAST. GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH THU MORNING. THIS FEATURE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDING A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
A trough of low pressure will approach the west coast on Thursday and may start to bring some showers to the interior coastal range late in the day.
707 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 144 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE SERN U. THE NAM APPEARS ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THIS TREND AS THE SLUGGISH UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER MODEST AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO AR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER WA/OR/ID PANHANDLE LAST COUPLE DAYS NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE, BRINGING PLENTY OF FAIR SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SIMILARLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOST LOWER ELEVATION SITES ONLY COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON FRI AFTN/EVE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERSISTENT UPPER LOW HAS NOW DRIFTED INTO CNTRL/ERN NEB WITH N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH. WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO AR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AS THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
Deep low pressure over SE North Dakota was making its impacts felt as far east as the Great Lakes where surge of anomalously moist air was heading north into the region.
318 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Powerful stacked low pressure system centered this afternoon over southeast North Dakota will begin to slowly move southeast overnight dragging colder air into our region along with a small chance for light pcpn in our far northern counties.
400 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Moisture streaming northward ahead of vigorous low pressure will result in widespread showers tonight.
Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the system on Wed/Wed night as westerly winds gust over 20 MPH in many locations.
Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1154 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 An area of low pressure will settle in over the Red River Valley through the beginning of the work week resulting in continued chances for light precipitation. Temperatures will be very warm today in the warm sector of the low with highs approaching record values in the mid to upper 40s. Light rain chances return this afternoon into tonight as the low deepens, especially for areas along the broad frontal zone along and north of the Iron Range late tonight. Weaker winds and slightly cooler Tuesday as the low reaches maturation and slowly starts to exit the Red River Valley towards central Minnesota.
307 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Main upper low centered over North Dakota while minor perturbations within the mean flow are dipping south and east over the desert southwest into the southern plains. One is centered over Iowa while a secondary low pressure is over southern Colorado. With the light winds and strong radiational cooling, lows tonight are seasonable with readings in the lower to middle 30s.
Trowal will continue to rotate around the low with pcpn spreading southwest across the cwfa tonight.
Guidance continues to show SHRA with isod TS develop along the actual cdfnt late this morning into the afternoon over central MO as the trof rotates around. Small hail is definitely possible given cooler temps aloft and presence of CAPE. Tilly Main cold front and upper level short wave to begin sliding through region on Tuesday, exiting by Tuesday evening.
Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. The higher elevations, sustained winds from 20 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, with locally higher gusts over 60 mph. Upper trough and a cold front will be moving in early in the period.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected for the rest of the week with temperatures remaining cooler than normal. Low clouds will continue to bring partly to mostly cloudy skies through this evening but will gradually clear overnight tonight behind a cold front that passed over the region earlier this morning. High pressure ridging will move inland from the coast by Tuesday afternoon, although a cool northerly flow will continue.
249 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Weak cold front is pushing into northeast and central Missouri this afternoon with generally clear skies behind it.
We have a large upper low that will sit over the Dakotas and West central MN through the forecast period. There will be a cold front that will push across the state today. For tonight we will see some clearing behind the front and slightly cooler low temps tonight but winds will become Southwest and stay around 10kts so I am not looking for a particularly cold night. With the low still around it won't be very clear either.
Precipitation chances will increase across the region today as stronger upper level energy taps into deeper moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. The highest probability for precipitation will begin late this morning and continue through the afternoon hours. Storm total rainfall with this event is expected to be one to two inches, with the highest amounts over parts of far southeast Missouri and far western Kentucky.
1119 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Areas of low pressure will return periodic rain chances to the forecast tonight through mid week. The low level jet should also result in gusty winds at the surface, though model soundings show the strongest winds remaining capped above the surface.
Also some potential of a thunderstorm along the occluded/cold front tonight. Expect moderate southeast to south winds through this afternoon with the center of strong low pressure over the eastern Dakotas. A secondary trough will lift north into southeast Wisconsin this afternoon and evening, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Expect strong winds and high waves, the highest in the northern marine zones. Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight as an occluded/cold front moves through.
Upper low drifting a bit west now toward Cooperstown. Radar has been showing an area of rain on north and west side of the upper low continuing to move west and northwest with additional rain spreading north to the east of the upper low attm. 850 mb temps remain a bit above zero north of the upper low into northeastern ND back toward DVl basin. Tuesday will see the moisture being cut off from the upper low and a transition to more drizzly weather with patches of wet snow. Temps above freezing so again little impacts anticipated.
Currently monitoring the first of two cold frontal waves that will be making their way through Central Alabama over the next several days.
A warm front will lift north through the area Tuesday.
132 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Deep cyclone centered over western Minnesota this aftenoon will undergo an occlusion next 12 to 24 hours with occluded front swinging across our area later tonight preceded by large area of much needed showers this afternoon and tonight that will include some thunderstorm activity as it moves through our area.
Snow has pretty much diminished across se Wy today with snow confined over and close to the higher mtns. A large upper low currently over eastern North Dakota will move little through Tuesday then begin drifting east Tuesday night.
947 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 The last wave to affect the area is now exiting the region though favorable northwest flow will allow orographics to keep snowfall in the picture over the higher terrain. Cross sections show the highest omega values through and above the dendritic growth region which should make for some efficient snow making.
Band of showers that has developed over a wide swath of the western and central parts of Middle Tennessee is helping to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than previously expected. However, still looks like thermal ridge, ahead of pre-frontal trough, will still work its way into these same areas late today and this evening. A cold front is approaching from the west today with showers and thunderstorms expected mainly during the afternoon and evening, with even stronger winds possibly reaching the surface during convection.
Mid/upper level trough over the central U. This will help push a surface cold front into the Deep South, but surface ridging will hold across the Florida peninsula keeping the front to our north. Temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 80s away from the immediate coast where the southeast to south flow will likely shift to south to southwest during the afternoon as the sea breeze tries to develop keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
124 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A strong upper level low is spinning over Minnesota and the western Great Lakes this afternoon. From the low a trough extends southwest along the Mississippi Valley and the west over southern Texas. An area of high pressure is moving eastward from the mid Atlantic Coast with the ridge axis pointed at north Florida.
1125 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 Update to cancel the High Wind warning over the South Laramie Range area and to post a wind advy for the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Upper low is currently spinning over central South Dakota with a pretty strong pressure gradient across the CWA. Went ahead and dropped the High Wind Warning for the Bordeaux area as winds have been weaker there compared to the southern Laramie Range, and winds will be more west-northwest which tends to be less favorable for Bordeaux. The higher elevations of the southern Laramie Range and adjacent foothills should see mixing down of winds of 40-50 kts.
321 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Our long-awaited cold front has come and gone, now headed into Eastern Texas early this afternoon. In its wake, temperatures are actually warmer (in the low to mid 70s) thanks to stout west- southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph descending off the higher terrain.
Cold air continues to fill into the region tonight with lows falling into the middle to upper 20s as northwest winds of 7 to 12 mph are expected to continue overnight and prevent temperatures from falling into the lower 20s/upper teens.
A consistent swath of peak wind gusts in the 40-47 kt range was observed on the east side of the low. East of I-65 many of the high-res models indicate the line will fall apart with a strong dry slot punching through by late evening resulting in rainfall totals around an inch or less. Afternoon highs should reach the mid 50s to low 60s before a cooler airmass moves in for the rest of the week. A dry, cool latter half of the week is expected as troughing transitions to a more zonal flow.
Expect highs today in the lower 50s and lows tonight in the 40s, both of which are well above normal for late November. Large low pressure system over the upper MS river valley Tuesday will pivot a short wave trof and cold front eastward across IL Tuesday night.
331 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Very large and deep low pressure system is slowly moving west across eastern North Dakota late this afternoon. As it makes this loop it will inch close enough to the area to bring some accumulating snow to far northwest Nebraska, primarily the Pine Ridge in Sheridan county eastward into far northwest and north central Cherry county. Moist north flow aloft will be favorable for an upslope type snow event along the Pine Ridge into northwest and far northern Cherry county. Temperatures Tuesday will be colder (mainly 30s to near 40 degrees) as a secondary cold front moves through the area ushering in the colder air to our north.
Light to moderate snow will continue this afternoon and evening as a wave of energy moves through on the back side of the passing upper level trough. Snow intensity will begin to wane significantly overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, though some light snow may continue over the higher terrain.
Warm advection as a result from the digging trough over the southern CONUS will continue through the period and maintain clouds ahead of an approaching occluded front. A closed upper low over the Northern Plains is forecast to stubbornly shift to the Upper Great Lakes over the next several days due to an amplifying ridge to the southeast.
350 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 A low pressure system remains over the central United States which is bringing rain and snow to the Dakotas. The cold front that came through early this morning has moved into the Ozarks which is brought clouds and precipitation over those areas for the first part of the day. The trough will keep its position over the Midwest for the first part of the week before heading to the Great Lakes. A secondary wave and respective front will move through on Tuesday which will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler air which means a relative cool down for the mid week and beyond with highs once again back to around 50 degrees or what is typical for start of December.
All models show this low developing over the western U. and dropping south into northwestern Mexico though there are differences in the strength and movement of the low as it moves east into Texas. The ECMWF is faster and weaker with the low which would give us less rainfall. GFS is stronger with the low which would give us more precipitation, unless the low digs too far south and gets caught under a Pacific Northwest ridge.
251 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 One upper trough will push across the Panhandles tonight and another will move across the forecast area by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front will move through the Panhandles late tonight and early Tuesday with dry conditions continuing through at least the middle of the week.
323 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows a deep/broad closed low centered over eastern North Dakota.
330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but brisk winds trail this feature, as evidenced by sfc obs and cloud streets/mtn waves on vis imagery. Winds on the plains have been barely into advisory criteria the last few hours, and lower lvl winds should decouple rapidly w/sunset, so we'll let the advisories expire as scheduled, and keep the warning for the higher elevations going thru 06Z.
Much of the high resolution guidance continues to indicate a lake band/lake enhanced convection will develop near sunset and impact western Salt Lake County and the Tooele Valley given the shift to more northerly flow by this later this evening.
These showers are associated with a rich plume of moisture being advected off the Gulf between the approaching front and a center of high pressure located just off the mid Atlantic coast. IFR to LIFR should rapidly improve behind the passage of a cold front toward late evening or shortly after midnight. The low over South Dakota will slowly weaken and shift to Minnesota through Tuesday. Its cold front slides over the lake late this evening. The weakened main low passes over the Great Lakes mid week with winds becoming west 15-25 kt behind the low.