Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Record tying or breaking warmth remains possible under continued high pressure today. The approaching system will bring slightly cooler temperatures across the area for Saturday, with shower activity possible across east- central Oregon and central Idaho through late Saturday afternoon. Clouds increase tonight across southeast Oregon as a short wave trough approaches the coast.
A cold front that extends southeast of a Muskogee Oklahoma to Wichita Falls to Lubbock line at 3 PM will continue to move southeast through the rest of the forecast area tonight. Despite the mostly sunny skies on Saturday, highs will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, ranging from the lower 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
1217 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis revealed a high-over-low blocking pattern present from western Canada to northwest Mexico with a downstream trough amplifying from Ontario into the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a cold front stretched from the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley to central High Plains as of 06z. The blocking pattern aloft will be maintained today into Saturday before the prevailing ridge over the north-central U.
The broad closed low centered pretty much directory over El Paso this morning continues to spin and push mini pulses over South Central Texas this morning. For tomorrow, as the upper low begins to become distorted by the the main building ridge in the northern United States, some indications of 700 mb moisture advection from the south were noted in the last two runs of the TTU-WRF and to a lesser extent in the other hi-resolution models. There does appear to be some strong isentropic lifting potential Saturday morning and through the afternoon which may be responsible for some shower activity, especially with the weak dynamic lift associated with the subtle disturbance in the main upper low.
/Issued 309 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ Cold front across the northern Texas Panhandle will continue to sweep southward and should be south of the CWA by around sunrise. The light winds and mainly clear skies should allow temperatures to fall to around freezing or below in the Freeze Watch area. Dew points above freezing Friday evening are going to have to drop fairly quickly to allow temperatures to fall to around freezing for any period time tonight.
Cooler with a Slight Chance of Showers Southwest Mountains. Currently, winds have largely shifted to the northeast across the plains as cooler air filters in. Radar and satellite show a band of high level showers, likely not reaching the ground, clipping the far southeast corner of Colorado as they rotate counterclockwise around the low over New Mexico. As cool air continues to filter in, the eastern plains can expect a much cooler day than yesterday with afternoon highs actually ending up a few degrees below average for a change. Late in the day into the evening, there may be enough moisture to produce a few rain or snow showers over the higher terrain of the San Juan and La Garita Mountains.
A powerful ridge remain the dominant feature over our region today and into the weekend. A fast moving Pacific short wave will temporarily break down the ridge by Saturday evening. Winds from near the surface through the upper atmosphere remain downslope oriented with this system so we are not expecting much more than an increase in cloud cover and maybe a few sprinkles in the lower elevations.
328 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Rather sharp west-east aligned trough/thermal trough (-5 C to -7 C at 850 mb) quickly tracking south through southern Lower Michigan this afternoon. Set up for a very nice weekend (clear skies) as the upper level ridge axis extends from the upper level ridge expanding into the Plains.
353 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A short-lived cold front is crossing the state this afternoon bringing with it some gusty winds and drier air. High pressure will build into the region tonight with the region below freezing by Saturday morning.
334 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Frontogenetic forcing underway over Arkansas with a resurgence of cooler air amassing over the Plains States. these conditions will likely linger through Saturday when the impulse gets lifted from increasing amplitude trough over the central Mississippi Valley Saturday night. Models show larger amplitude troughing taking place over the eastern half of the nation with higher amplitude rigding developing over the desert southwest.
1048 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Cold front nearing I-44 corridor at present and will continue south through the rest of the day. VFR conditions will continue at all sites with a passing cold front today bringing only a wind shift. a weak cold front was positioned from New Mexico through Eastern Kansas. Cold air advection and northerly flow behind the front should help to keep afternoon temps slightly cooler compared to yesterday.
1105 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will bring a shower or sprinkles and clouds today. Did not think any changes were needed for Clouds are still expected to spread over the area this morning as a cold front ploughs across the region. High pressure will push southeast this evening, as upper level heights begin to rise.
1229 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area early tonight. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through the Ohio River Valley Saturday.
Some increasing clouds today ahead of a weak cold front that may bring some light rain to the north bay overnight.
Tonight Through Saturday One more day of mild and dry high pressure ridge over western and central Wyoming through Saturday. Southwest wind will increase across the south into southern Fremont and Natrona counties in the afternoon hours Saturday in response to approaching Pacific low pressure trough. Saturday Night Through Friday Saturday night clouds will increase across the west and northwest as the Pacific low pressure trough approaches. The trough is not expected to produce much precipitation and mainly in the western mountains.
1246 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will bring a shower or sprinkles and clouds today. Clouds are still expected to spread over the area this morning as a cold front ploughs across the region. High pressure will push southeast this evening, as upper level heights begin to rise.
High pressure will build into the region overnight with the region below freezing by Tomorrow morning.
Strong radiational cooling expected tonight, with a clearing sky, a drying airmass and light winds allowing most locations to fall near/below freezing (25-32). For Saturday, high pressure will shift off to the east with weak lee troughing.
The persistent upper level low pressure system to our west is finally beginning to weaken and open back into a trough. High-res models are showing fairly widespread coverage in forecasted radar reflectivity but the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will be too dry for much of it to reach the ground. Another trough can currently be seen pushing through the upper mid-west and this trough will continue to move south and send another frontal boundary through the CWA tomorrow morning.
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 (Today) Cold front as of 0800 UTC is currently aligned along a KSGF>>KUUV>>K1H2 line and will push through far southeastern portions of the CWA around daybreak. expect cooler conditions along with a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. expect a chilly night across the bi-state area with lows in the low to mid 30s. While some areas will likely bottom out near or even slightly below the freezing mark. elected to not issue a freeze warning since a brief dip of temperatures to near freezing should only have minimal impacts.
101 PM MST Fri Nov 11 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low over Northern Mexico and ridge over the western CONUS have moved little from yesterday. At the surface a high pressure in Nebraska was moving southward. Behind the ridge winds were turning back to the south. Tonight lows will be similar to last night for the northwest half of the Tri-State Area, with cooler values expected for the southeast half where the ridge axis will be. Due to a very favorable setup for radiational cooling, lows for this part of the area will fall to the low 20s.
115 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Colder airmass arriving behind a cold front today.
923 AM PST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure aloft will continue to bring warm and dry weather with above normal temperatures today, followed by minor cooling Saturday.
A cold front was making its way across the forecast area early Friday morning, and will push through the entire area by sunrise. Should see rather effective radiational cooling although the pressure gradient will remain a bit tight in east central KS and could keep a breeze through the night with slightly warmer temperatures resulting. Either way, much of the area will again flirt with sub-freezing temperatures with the best chance in northern KS. but the area can expect frost and some freezing conditions tonight.
259 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Issued at 12:44 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 With high pressure to the west, cooler air allowed for some clouds this afternoon, but these will dissipate heading into the evening. Post frontal cold advection this aftn will weaken overnight as low level thermal trough continues eastward into New England. This will yield a continuation of seasonably mild and dry weather as low level anticyclone persists across the GOMEX. Thereafter signals of more substantial CONUS troughing take shape late period (DY8) through the cntrl/nrn plains as brief but vigorous return flow channel develops through the wrn GOMEX. This would favor a more robust chc of rain in association with eastward sweep of seasonably strong cold front centered late Fri per decent consensus agreement.
Following a seasonably cool morning with lows in the lower to mid 40s, temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s this afternoon aided by a dry airmass and filtered sunshine.
342 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front was moving across the area today with little fanfare other than a wind shift to the north. The normally colder valleys will likely fall below freezing Saturday night just as they did a couple nights ago, and freeze headlines may eventually be needed for a few counties.
109 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A weak cold front will push south across the region this morning. Some mid clouds associated with a digging H5 trof have dropped into the region. Still expect high the 50s today, ranging from the lower 50s in the north to the mid to upper 50s in the south.
A weak cold front will move into the area tonight, turning light and variable winds this afternoon to northerly overnight. Models indicate that MVFR CIGs may develop again tomorrow morning around 12Z along and just behind the cold front. A weak cold front will push into West Central Texas from the north today. This front will bring winds from the north and cooler temperatures.
257 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure settle south through the night which will allow for light winds in many locations most of the night.
High pressure is sitting over the area and will produce clear conditions and light winds over the coastal waters.
305 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure will move off to the east overnight with a south/southwest wind component and a pressure gradient peaking around 14mb across the state by the morning.
The upper level high over low blocking pattern breaks down on Saturday and Saturday night with the ridge over the northern plains pushing east and the cutoff low over far northern Mexico lifting out across Texas as the next upper trough begins to moves east of the Rockies.
12Z CRP sounding indicated moisture was limited to the 700 to 500 mbs range with drier air intruding in the lower levels from the northeast. Expect this will continue through the afternoon with slightly lower chances for the coastal areas due to the drier air in the lower levels.
1020 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains. high pressure ridge covers the Dakotas. Thermal ridge overhead and downslope flow will lead to very mild and dry conditions, with many areas reaching into the 70s. Upper ridge begins to break down Saturday night as trof moves through the nrn Rockies, sending a weak cool front into the cwfa.
305 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Currently - A pressure ridge stretching along the Gulf Coast and extends across the Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic, resulting in light northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. Stable conditions continue with deep layered ridging in place. Temperatures are struggling to push up out of the lower 80s with dew point temperatures lingering in the upper 60s. Forecast - The weak ridge axis to our north will gradually become absorbed into a much larger high pressure system migrating southeastwards into the eastern United States.
258 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front passed through today with little fanfare. Should valleys end up decoupling late tonight, there would be frost and possibly freezing temps in those locations. This should allow for freezing temps just about everywhere, with lower 20s in many valleys. Time heights are particularly dry in the lower levels and would suspect this will lead to RH values in the 20 to 30 percent range. That said fire weather concerns will remain a concern, but winds will remain light given the high pressure location.
1232 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A strong cold front will bring a few light rain showers and gusty winds to New York today.
239 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 After sprinkles move through with a cold front, expect colder temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend. Sprinkles continue to move from north to south along a cold front currently crossing the region. High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, bringing quiet weather.
Despite these clouds, temperatures will still top out above normal in the lower 70s. /issued 522 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ Today through tonight, High pressure with mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 30s over much of North Central and Northeast MS overnight, and this has resulted in the threat for patchy frost in the Golden Triangle region. Dry northwest flow aloft will send another cold front toward the forecast area later today into tonight. This rain-free front will push through the ArkLaMiss region overnight and bring a reinforcing push of drier and cooler air.
1223 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will cross the region this morning, bringing colder air and gusty winds this afternoon into Saturday. Low Pressure may bring unsettled conditions midweek. Cold front is moving toward the coast now, with winds right behind the front gusting to around 30KT (35 MPH). Showers are entering the north as a cold front crosses the region. High pressure moves in overnight.
308 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 No big surprises or changes with this forecast: Freezing and near- freezing temperatures tonight with freeze warning and frost advisory being in effect.
Upper-level ridging is expected to dominate the larger scale pattern, and the models agree in limited moisture aloft with extremely dry RH progs in the 700-300 millibar layer. H7 temperatures around 0C across the High Plains early this AM will rebound this afternoon, but the majority of the CWA will see highs in the 50s F. It will turn much warmer for Sat as H7 temperatures climb back into the +4C to +6C range along with plentiful sunshine.
An amplified positively tilted trough lies over the southwest at the mid and upper levels. Fairly extensive cloud cover can be seen via satellite imagery on the east side of the trough.
A low pressure system and associated cold front will move through the area tomorrow afternoon. The main result will be increased clouds, showers (mainly in the higher terrain and across northwest Montana), and breezy conditions.
The ridge over the western US will continue into tomorrow. A quick Pacific through moving into southern Canada tomorrow night break the ridge down some. This will also bring a little higher chance of the high elevation precip.
A cold start this morning with temps at 8am just now going above freezing for parts of NE AL and southern middle TN. Synoptically speaking, an amplified ridge prevails across the western half of the country and a cutoff low continues to spin around the desert southwest and north central Mexico. This increase in winds is mainly associated with the increasing pressure gradient ahead of a cold frontal passage later this evening into the overnight. The nearly zonal oriented cold front should then pass over the region between 00Z-03Z (6PM-9PM) tonight. Antecedent dry profile will preclude and precipitation from occurring with this cold front passage. Temperatures should rise only into the low to mid 60s.
Conditions are expected to remain dry and partly cloudy as a ridge remains overhead. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Upper ridge slides across the region today with continued warm and dry weather.
Upper ridge currently over the Rockies will begin to build back into the Plains today. A fairly cool air mass with 925mb temps around the zero C mark will remain over the area, although some warmer temps will begin to move in late in the afternoon. Not a lot of mixing for much of the day, but with plenty of sunshine and a dry air mass, getting on the warmer side of guidance is possible.
On Saturday, a cold front will bring windy conditions along with the chance for rain.
There were multiple freezing levels with the lowest one about 3,700 feet and the highest around 10,000 feet.
No snow accumulation is expected from these flurries as they are not expected to last long and temperatures remain above freezing this evening.
This would argue against reaching some of the cooler MOS forecast low temps overnight. Still, it will be cooler than last night with lows in the middle to upper 30s.
312 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 Upper level trough has finally dropped south of Colorado today, with mostly sunny skies across the area at mid-afternoon. Temperatures have begun to warm at non-snow covered locations along the I-25 corridor and across the plains, with a few 40s reappearing in the lower Arkansas Valley. On Sat, gradual warming trend continues as warmer air aloft crests the western ridge and spills southward through the Rockies. Even mountains/valleys will begin to see warmer temps, with 20s/30s replacing the teens and single digit of the past few days.
The wind advisory was allowed to expire this evening for San Diego County Coast, and the High Wind Warning was cancelled for Orange County Coast. Additionally, the High Wind Warning for the remaining areas was downgraded to a Wind Advisory since winds will be weaker for the remainder of the event.
/issued 342 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) Mid/upper level trough axis will swing across the area tonight, bringing a chance for some light precipitation to southern sections this evening. Temperature profiles support some snow mixing in with the rain for areas west of a San angelo to Sonora line this evening, with rain possibly becoming all snow across the higher terrain of Irion and Crockett counties by mid evening. Surface temperatures are expected to remain above freezing this evening (mid/upper 30s)where snow is possible, so no hazardous travel conditions are expected. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across the Big Country, to the lower 30s elsewhere.
An upper level trough will swing through the area Saturday afternoon resulting in breezy northwest winds developing after 18Z. /issued 231 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017/ Region remains in zonal flow within a broad trough located over the U.
Strong high pressure aloft along the west coast will expand east across the Great Basin this weekend.
Continued northwesterly flow is on tap for tonight and tomorrow with a longwave trough positioned over the eastern CONUS. High temperatures will vary little between today and Saturday with low temps tonight slightly warmer than last night owing to the possibility of high level clouds passing through.
Quiet and seasonably cold temperatures will be the story tonight, as a large ridge of high pressure at the sfc out of the Plains states takes aim at the SE region. In fact, both Huntsville and Muscle Shoals are approaching the 17 day mark where temps have remained above freezing. The flow pattern aloft though is xpcted to be fairly active as a longwave trough axis out of the Great Lakes digs swd into the wrn/cntrl Gulf region. As the brunt of the upper trough axis gets closer to the cntrl TN Valley on Sun, clouds will likely be on the increase, as moisture thickness around H7 and below tries to increase.
A weak disturbance wl clip the northeast corner of Colorado this evening in the 01-04z windows, with a drier northerly flow for the rest of tonight and Saturday, as an amplified ridge over the west coast. Gusty northerly winds will continue above timberline on Saturday with ridgetop winds in the 35-40 mph range. Adjusted the low temperatures in the mountains and high valleys based off the much colder temperatures this morning.
/ISSUED 318 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017/ An elongated upper trough was located at mid afternoon from an upper low just north of Maine all the way into the Southern Plains. A rather progressive flow aloft will begin to amplify a bit as an upper low tries to form over Mexico.
Forecast soundings suggest possibility of -SN mixing with -RA across the higher elevations of the Edwards Plateau with impacts well N and NW of the TAF sites. Upper air analysis this morning showed a sharply positively tilted trough from the Great Lakes to southern California with nearly zonal flow across Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northwest and winds were generally from the east. The upper level trough will move across Texas during this period. Chances for showers will shift to the southern half of the area Saturday as the upper trough sags southward.
650 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Continental high pressure will keep dry and chilly conditions over the region through the short term period.
607 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A strong low pressure system over eastern Canada will remain nearly stationary over the weekend maintaining cold northwest flow and occasional mainly lake effect snow showers across our area.
Outside of the ridges, snow showers have varied in intensity over the course of the day and have remain fairly scattered.
The upper ridge will continue to strengthen through Saturday, allowing the inversion to persist.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. A cold front will stall over the Florida Straits overnight.
Periods of light rain are expected to occur over the next 18 hours as airmass aloft is lifted via southerly flow up over cooler air at the surface. Winds to continue veering toward NE for the next several hours, then back to northerly later tonight as a surge of high pressure reaches the RGV.
600 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this morning has a broad trough of low pressure across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. A positive tilted trough of low pressure extended from the mid Mississippi valley west southwest to Baja California. West of this feature, ridging extended up the west coast into southwestern Canada. falls noted over the lower Ohio valley. The forecast area was situated between high pressure across the central Rockies with low pressure located over Quebec. Saturday will be similar to today with northwest winds and similar 850mb temperatures so have decided to go warmer than models are projecting for highs by a few degrees, as models were a little cool with highs today.
41 Continental high pressure will keep dry and chilly conditions over the region through the short term period.
The winter weather advisory remains in place for the ridges until 1 AM.