Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST MOVES CLOSER AND SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS RESPOND TOMORROW EVENING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BACK TO A MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THAN WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES (TYPICAL BIAS). /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/ UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW.
758 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
Currently, an upper level trough located over New Mexico is moving east toward the southern plains with a 120+ knot jet at 250mb, and 60+ knots at 500mb, creating a highly sheared environment over west central Texas. In the low levels, CAPE values were exceeding 1500 J/kg over the southern 2/3 of the CWA, with SRH values from surface to 1 km of greater than 200 m2/s2 downstream of the currently developing storms. For Saturday, clear and dry conditions are expected behind the upper level trough moving through the area tonight.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A RELAXING WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT UNDER SHALLOW RIDGING.
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) Currently, an upper level trough located over New Mexico is moving east toward the southern plains with a 120+ knot jet at 250mb, and 60+ knots at 500mb, creating a highly sheared environment over west central Texas. In the low levels, CAPE values were exceeding 1500 J/kg over the southern 2/3 of the CWA, with SRH values from surface to 1 km of greater than 200 m2/s2 downstream of the currently developing storms. For Saturday, clear and dry conditions are expected behind the upper level trough moving through the area tonight.
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LEADING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY MATURE INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP FORCING INTO SE IA AND IMMEDIATE MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. SO EXPECT LOW/MID 50S FOR HIGHS WITH BRISK NELY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH OF U. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY BECOME A MORE OPEN WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN WANES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT WHILE AN MCS ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-59 WHERE MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY FROM AROUND WEISER TO THE WEST SIDE OF CALDWELL THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM.
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS.
745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 75 61 76 / 90 80 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 71 60 70 / 80 80 70 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 52 71 59 69 / 80 80 70 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 67 54 63 / 50 80 70 60.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
1020 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015 Latest obs indicate winds have decoupled/diminished everywhere, and the High Wind Warning has expired. This trough has helped to produce some thunderstorms today.
MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH EASTWARD WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING IF CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND APPROACHES THE COAST LIKE SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS WERE HINTING.
This trough has helped to produce some thunderstorms today.
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A LOW FREEZING LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THERE FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BUT BELIEVE THE HIGH REFLECTIVITY ON THE COMPOSITE FROM KMTX RADAR IS A RAIN-SNOW LINE AS ALGORITHMS INDICATE A DRY SNOW AT A SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH ELEVATION SLICE.
720 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BUT THE LOWL LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH.
WITH LOCATION WELL NORTH OF THE EVOLUTION OF MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER. AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT LEAST UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE NEAR RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN FROM NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. WITH A TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST TO NEAR HWY 83.
634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE VIRGINIAS, WITH E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL THREATS WITH THIS FIRST ROUND INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES OCCURRING ALONG ANY CELL INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A LOW FREEZING LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
The short wave trof currently getting ready to move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.
929 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
1137 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. WITH A TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST TO NEAR HWY 83.
WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA. HOWEVER IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND UPPER TROF MOVES NORTHEAST.
/ISSUED 950 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/ SFC OBS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOWER/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 02Z. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRING THE TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING.
COAST WILL SUPPORT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME INTERVALS OF HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. COAST TONIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND FLOW WITH WINDS APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVERNIGHT WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO SE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VENTURES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.
730 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS. WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WITH THE DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
In the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the remainder of the CWA. Dew points have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA. Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push through the area. Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. MOISTURE IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE MORE THAN 0.
THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BUT THE LOW LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH.
PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. THIS EVENT REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRING THE TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
A SPLINTERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA WILL CRAWL EASTWARD AND DOMINATE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. RESULTING IN DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA WHERE LIFTING WARM FRONT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
322 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, ALLOWING A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AFTER CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR KANSAS CITY BY 12Z SAT, WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 NEAR WARM FRONTAL ZONE.
206 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWN EAST. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SUN MRNG LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS.
A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON. EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY. UPTICK IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE DAY.
421 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE INTO MISSOURI. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT THRU A DEEP LAYER INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 70 56 78 / 0 10 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 69 52 75 / 0 10 70 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 37 69 52 75 / 0 10 70 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 67 44 67 / 0 0 60 90 NC.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN AND THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES QUICKLY.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. STORMS SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK.
502 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR BAJA WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A VORT MAX CROSSES THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS DEPART TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.
140 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHILE ANOTHER MID/UPPER LOW WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS OVER THE LOW MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEST/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY ACT TO INHIBIT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WANES AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL AVERAGE AND WILL TEND TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. 7 INCHES AND TRAPPED LARGELY IN THE THE LOWER LEVELS. IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINING IN PLACE AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE LOWER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
251 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD AS PRES FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH- RES MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
PROVIDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT.
524 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH MOST ACTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS JUST TO OUR WEST. AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.