Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 500mb pattern shows a large 500mb low over southwestern Canada, with a trough set up across much of the western U. The lower clouds will slowly diminish through the late morning hours. Will be watching to our west for areas of clearing ahead of the nearing cold front, where convection should be developing around 21Z this afternoon.
An upper level low will dominate the western US through this week. There is a slight chance of rain in the far North Bay Wednesday morning as a frontal system moves through otherwise look for dry and breezy conditions with cooler than average temperatures. An upper level low is over the Pacific Northwest. 850 mb temps have dropped a few degrees C since yesterday so highs today will be about 3-5 degrees cooler.
The upper flow will transition from zonal today to southwesterly Wednesday as a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest digs southward over the Great Basin region later this week. A cold front is expected to push through the Panhandles later today and Wednesday morning.
/Issued 325 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ High pressure ridge continues to weaken through short term period.
Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level jet around the south and east sides of the trough will shift east today. Stronger upper level jet will round the base of the trough and into the area after 06z Wed.
The low cloud deck is expected to erode mid to late morning, giving the afternoon some decent sunshine over the western CWA. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals, mainly reaching the lower to mid 80s. An upper ridge will amplify across the Mississippi Valley, as the slow movement of Hurricane Jose up the East Coast blocks the overall progression of systems from west to east. A deepening trough over the western U.
Warm conditions will continue through the short term with highs today and Wednesday in the low to mid 90s for most locations, and upper 90s along the Rio Grande.
The main upper level trough over Alberta shifts eastward during the day today acting to enhance the pressure gradient over the area. On top of the wind, a hot day is expected with highs reaching into the low 90s in north central Kansas to upper 80s in very eastern Kansas. Towards the very end of the period, a surface front moves towards the area causing lows to range from the low 60s in north central Kansas to the low 70s in east central Kansas. Given the high moisture content the cape is expected to be rather high, while the deep layer shear is marginal.
A cold front is crossing northern and central Utah today. A colder upper trough will move into Utah starting late Wednesday night and will linger over the area through the upcoming weekend. Showers are continuing across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning, as a cold front has pushed through the area. This front is not expected to make it past central Utah, as the parent trough to the north heads due east, eventually allowing showers to lift out of the forecast area through late afternoon and evening. The northern half of the forecast area should have highs about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, while southern Utah keeps similar temperatures to yesterday with breezy southwest winds. Wednesday is expected to be a warmer day, with a break between storm systems.
A strong and expansive area of low pressure will develop over the Western U.
802 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay locked in place over Pennsylvania for the next 7 days. Another comfortable night/early morning with light wind as Central PA remains in the sweet spot of weather - between Hurricane Jose (spinning about 250 NM east of KORF) and a stalled out frontal boundary extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Midwest States. Morning stratus and areas of generally light fog will be burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. Max temps Wednesday will once again range from the mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the L80s in the SE.
So with that in mind will keep current highs in the lower 90s and pops for this afternoon. Mid level lapse rates and flow will show a modest increase due to the passing trough, so a few strong wind gusts could be a possibility with storms that develop during peak heating.
Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected in the wake of the cold frontal passage, although should fall short of Lake Wind criteria. Maliawco Previous Discussion: A cold front will move to the east this morning. SW flow aloft will prevail today ahead of an upper low in British Columbia and Alberta. West winds will develop behind the cold front this morning. Directly behind it a large trough stretches from northern California through the Pacific Northwest, Alberta, and northern Saskatchewan. Behind that a large ridge resides south of the Aleutians and moving into the Gulf of Alaska.
Hurricane Jose tracks north then northeast along the Mid- Atlantic and New England coasts while ridging aloft resides over the Gulf of Mexico.
755 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday. Still some uncertainty how far south the low clouds will get.
/issued 433 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ An upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest with zonal flow over the CWA.
A cold front moving through the area tomorrow afternoon remains similar in recent model analysis. These winds will occur both ahead of and behind a cold front that will enter southeast Oregon during the day.
906 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 High pressure surface and aloft over the Gulf will remain in control of our weather the remainder of today with light north to northeast winds with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon. High pressure over the Gulf waters will continue to support tranquil boating conditions with northeast to north winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
High pressure aloft in the mid levels will continue to keep the forecast status quo as lower level moisture, generally below 700mb, allows for isolated nocturnal streamer showers over the Gulf. However, the H5 ridge and subsidence will limit the growth of showers/storms today with any convective activity remaining hit and miss in nature. Heading into Wednesday, the ridge appears to flatten and elongate over Texas and Northern Mexico as a deepening low pressure system develops over the NW U. With the ridge weakening slightly and low level moisture still in place, have just a general mention of slight chance POPs for showers/isolated storms. Meanwhile, temps will continue to run a bit above normal under the influence of the high pressure system.
The pressure gradient will tighten overnight between departing high pressure and the next approaching trough, resulting in winds not dropping off much tonight.
/Issued 342 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days, within a pattern which features a large longwave trough in the west and a building ridge in the east. Highs will be about 5-10 degrees above average, but overnight lows on Wednesday morning will be noticeably mild, in the low to mid 70s. Surface cold front moves into Kansas/northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon, with storms forming Wed night across western Missouri into southeast Kansas. After Wed night, the next chance of precipitation doesn't arrive until late in the weekend when western trough finally begins to make some eastward progress.
Stratus will be sticking around a bit longer but most of the high resolution models have some clearing by 17-18Z, mainly in the southwestern counties. Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level jet around the south and east sides of the trough will shift east today. Stronger upper level jet will round the base of the trough and into the area after 06z Wed.
1000 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday.
Coulston A broad upper level low pressure trough will remain over the Northern Rocky Mountain Region today and Friday for cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions.
724 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will build over the region today and will shift east on Friday.
Broad upper level ridging extends over the southeast U. Farther to the south, a closed upper low over the Cuba extends an inverted trough northeast over the Bahamas. The upper high will slowly retrograde westward by the end of the week as the trough moves westward over southern Florida. This ridging will keep an east- northeast wind flow over the region through the period.
Otherwise, quiet weather continues as a cold front slowly makes its way trough western North Dakota. A cold front will move through today. Further west, temperatures will be cooler in the 50s.
1037 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will gradually bring drier air into the area today, ending the rain and clearing the skies.
/issued 425 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ Ridging will continue today as the upper level high elongates across the southeast. Southwesterly winds will help to increase dewpoints from the low 50s to near 60 by this evening. Southwesterly flow around the upper high will bring moisture up from the Gulf starting Friday.
A cold front had moved into far western North Dakota and far northern Wyoming. An upper trough currently located from western Montana into eastern Idaho will track east-northeast into the Dakotas this afternoon. This will push a cold front southeastward to near an Ainsworth through Ogallala line by late afternoon. Used the warmer CONSMOS guidance. For tonight, the upper trough will advance across Minnesota into the western Great Lakes. On the trailing end of the trough from southeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, an area of 700mb frontogenesis will develop to include Sheridan, Cherry, and northern Garden county. while the lower level remains fairly dry. Overnight, the cold front will advance into northwest Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Aloft, a trough quickly digs across the northern Rockies, crossing the Plains over the weekend. A ridge tries to build across the Southwest U.
07z/2am surface map shows low pressure over western Pennsylvania, with a trough axis extending westward into central Illinois. Patchy drizzle persists within the weak convergence zone along the trough, and this trend is expected to continue through at least mid-morning. Have therefore gone with overcast conditions today, with high temperatures only reaching the lower to middle 60s. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 50s. With abundant sunshine and southerly flow returning to the region, much warmer weather is expected for Friday as afternoon high temperatures rise into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Meanwhile, a cold front draped across the Plains will slowly begin to approach from the northwest Friday night.
938 AM PDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Dry with cooler temperatures for next few days. High temperatures the next few days will be a few degrees cooler than normal owing to this cooler airmass.
a high pressure ridge over the Mississippi valley will move east across Indiana tonight and Friday.
Main focus will continue to be centered on winds and wave development heading into the weekend as potent low pressure heads towards the Great Lakes. That ridge will begin to push east tonight with a trough of low pressure approaching western Wisconsin by early Friday morning. Highs today will be kept in check due to the low clouds, so similar to yesterday.
West of there mid 60s to lower 70s can be expected, while the lowering sun angle and extensive cloud cover may make it hard to warm more than 5 degrees where temperatures are now to the east. A cold front will push through tonight. The longer term concerns remain timing and extent of precipitation coverage with Fridays front and the development of the trough over the weekend. The 00Z deterministic runs have sped up the next trough into the region the weekend.
The main story for today remains the low overcast conditions that cover the entire forecast area as of 08Z. The 925mb RH from the NAM and RAP have handled the low clouds very well to this point and they were followed closely for cloud trends and temperatures today.
Increasing clouds this afternoon/evening as the next upper level low approaches. This system will bring periods of MVFR and IFR conditions mainly to the higher terrain. An upper level trough will continue to affect the region through the short term. With snow levels holding steady near 4000 ft, mountain valleys will see 1-2 inches of accumulation, while the higher terrain will average 2-5 inches; accumulation up to 7 inches are possible over 7500 ft. Breezy westerly winds are expected Friday afternoon as the disturbance's associated cold front exits east. An upper level trough will move through Friday night, bringing a round of showers and air cold enough for snow in the valleys.
619 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 This mornings water vapor imagery showed a deep longwave trof over the Pac NW with strong moisture flow on the front side into the northern Plains. a low pressure trof down along the northern/central high Plains.
/Issued 234 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ /Today and Tonight/ An upper level ridge will continue to build in from the east today and result in warmer temperatures across the entire region.
930 AM PDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Onshore flow and an upper level trough will bring areas of low clouds west of the mountains through Friday, but otherwise the weather will be fair.
1131 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will build over the region today and will shift east on Friday.
919 AM PDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Cooler and showery weather is expected for the rest of the work week.
Latest visible satellite imagery is showing some altocumulus east of Tucson and given the modest moisture, there could be some build-ups this afternoon across the higher terrain especially in Cochise County. In the broader picture, the forecast area lies between an expansive anticyclone aloft across the southeast and Gulf Coast states and troughing across the Pacific Northwest with southwesterly flow aloft currently in place.
For the update, bumped up the high temps a couple of degrees for today. /10/ Prior discussion below: Our nice taste of fall will continue today as upper ridging remains in place over the region. Dry air will continue today and highs will be in the 80s with some some upper 70s still possible across the northern sections of the forecast area(generally along and north of the Highway 82 corridor). There could be some lower 60s in the Highway 84 corridor, but still pleasant overnight conditions. /28/ Quiet weather is expected across the forecast area through much of the period, as high pressure at both the surface and aloft prevail across the region.
Yesterday Memphis did not manage to make it out of the 60s, but expecting warmer conditions today as stratus will likely not make it as far south or be able to stick around as long as yesterday. A ridge of high pressure over the Midsouth will allow for a fast warming trend heading into the weekend, resulting in high temperatures reaching the 80s by Friday.
A cold front is now southeast of Central Alabama this morning, although a moist low level airmass remains in place.
516 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the western CONUS with southwest upper flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, a strong cold front is located from western ND into eastern WY. Strong cold front will continue to move through the forecast area today, exiting south central SD around mid afternoon. Temperatures will range from the 50s across the northwestern third of the CWA to the lower 70s across south central SD.
The ridge is expected to weaken and shift EWD tngt and Fri, with SFC winds veering to the S/SE by Fri.
A broad upper level low pressure trough will remain over the Northern Rocky Mountain Region today and Friday for cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions.
948 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 An approaching weak cold front will move into the forecast area today, stall and dissipate because of upper ridging. The ridge will dominate over the weekend.
900 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Weak high pressure will be across the region, with a near stationary front just to the Northwest Today.
TFJ Cold front has moved to the east early this morning. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler today than yesterday with cooler air mass moving in. Most areas will have lows below freezing tonight with lows in the upper 20s.
944 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will build over the region today and will shift east on Friday.
An area of low pressure, with a center between Cuba and the Bahamas will continue to press westward today, enhancing the instability and chances for shower and thunderstorm development.
1058 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Strong upper level jet rounding the base of longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies will be nudging into our area this afternoon and tonight. The breezy to winds conditions will persist through Friday before the main trough tightens up and kicks out across the area.
Brownsville radar continues to indicate some convection across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and the lower Texas Gulf waters. The combination of a stationary frontal boundary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and a coastal trough across the western Gulf of Mexico will provide scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the lower Texas coast today. The coastal trough weakens by this evening as the surface flow becomes easterly late this afternoon. Near normal temperatures expected today with warmer than normal temperatures tonight and Friday.
936 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will provide the North Country with mainly clear skies and cool temperatures today. Areas of frost will be likely away from the warmer waters of Lake Champlain tonight.
909 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 A deep inverted trough near Andros Island in the Bahamas early this morning eases westward to the Cal Sal Bank today. As the trough slowly approaches during the day some of the deeper moisture will reach the far southeast and southern counties. A high pressure ridge north of the state and low pressure. in the form of an inverted trough.
647 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 12Z TAF pd, as high pressure at the sfc remains in control of the region's weather. /issued 254 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ Quiet weather is in store for the next several days as an UA ridge and its sfc counterpart remains overhead. As such, light and variable/calm winds were observed early this morning, and the cooler and drier airmass ushered in by a fropa a few days ago maintains its grip across the Four-State region, with reports of dewpoints in the 50s per 07Z metars. The cooler airmass will however begin to lose its grip later today as sfc winds returns to a southerly flow late this aftn/early this evening and subsequently, daytime temps will warm into the 80s /5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday/.
Deep layer ridging will prevail aloft, with a quasi-stationary surface front on the edge of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. However, convergence along the surface front will be favorable as easterly flow, from an area of low pressure in the Florida Straits and high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, opposes the front. This convergence combined with above average PWATs focused mainly in the lower troposphere will favor a scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms over an area about 75mi on either side of a line from Panama City through Albany. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, nearing the 90 degree mark with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s.
Breezy southerly winds continue across the eastern CWA as pressure gradient remains tight ahead of approaching cold front. For later today, the southerly winds will persist over the eastern CWA as the cold front approaches. Increased highs today a few degrees and sided on the higher end of guidance. Coolest readings will reside over the northwest CWA where cooler air will first arrive behind the passing cold front. This cool high pressure will keep temps on Friday in the upper 50s to low 60s.
940 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Low pressure to the south will drift westward today with increased moisture and breezy conditions southern coastal sections as it does so. A non-tropical area of low pressure will push west across Cuba and the Florida straits through tonight.
932 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure is positioned over Quebec while a warm front is draped along the Mason-Dixon Line. The high will slowly drift eastward while the front moves to the south.
634 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Above normal temperatures will return to Kansas today as southerly winds increase and bring warmer air into the region. Meanwhile current early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough over the northwestern states, which move eastward for Friday into the weekend across the central plains.
The upper trough over the W coast of the United States will shift E by the weekend, and a high pressure ridge will develop. This will bring dry weather and warmer temperatures to the area.
a cold front will approach from the north before eventually stalling across the southeastern portion of the local area over the upcoming weekend. Expect a cold front to be positioned just southeast of the tri- cities to start the extended periods. meandering across this area through the first half of the weekend before the longwave trough to our west helps to push this front further east. with ridging over the middle portion of the week likely helping return temperatures to near or slightly above normal for several days.
These were part of a trough moving from the east and its axis is currently extending over the western Bahamas and central Cuba. As a weak trough reaches the Straits of Florida this afternoon and moves westward towards the Gulf of Mexico, showers and thunderstorms will continue to make their way towards the island chain and western waters of our forecast area. As the axis of the trough moves over the Keys tonight and reaches the Gulf, winds will turn from the northeast to east to southeast.
A backdoor cold front will move into the CWA Friday bringing a chance of showers/thunderstorms to much of the CWA, mainly in the afternoon.
811 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will build over the region today and will shift east on Friday.
/issued 314 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ We are still talking about this cold front that is moving southeast as slow as molasses in winter.
Problem being is that there is additional low-mid level cloud cover with the approaching trough, so any clearing may be short-lived or even non existent, especially for areas along and east of the MS River.
Another round of showers was moving through the cool upper trough over the region today. Cool showery weather will give way to high pressure over the weekend.
Upper level ridging across the southern U. At the surface, persistent lee troughing east of the Rockies will result in a tighter sfc pressure gradient in our area and gusty southerly winds today. With the warm, muggy conditions in place from southerly flow, lows tonight should only manage to fall into the low to mid 60s.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain a dry weather pattern through the remainder of the week.
928 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Lingering showers and areas of drizzle behind a cold front. High pressure builds in for Friday and lasts into the weekend.
Today will be much warmer across the region with full sun expected for the first time in a couple of days.