Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 40S NEAR PARIS TN. /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE MIDSOUTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S.
704 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HUGE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. JOAQUIN AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY IF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NE ALABAMA SHOULD BEGIN TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TRACKS SOUTHEAST. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH AND TEMPS RATHER LOW.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
724 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
1041 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. AND TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES.
659 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP STRATOCU PRETTY THICK OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
721 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 An upper-level ridge axis currently over eastern Kansas will continue to provide subsidence over the CWA through Saturday. This should be contained to the west of the CWA along the periphery of the ridge axis, with resulting abundant sunshine in place over northwest and central Missouri. Overnight lows outside of this affected area will drop into the low 40s, with areas underneath the cloud cover reaching the mid 40s.
733 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABATING WINDS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
ESPECIALLY BRIDGES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE MID 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
LOW LVL WINDS REMAIN FROM THE WNW/NW TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS. A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AL INTO THE FL BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL PIVOT TWD THE NRN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THE H5 CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO MOVE ESE FROM SE AL TOWARD NE FL SUN AFTN. WILL CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT WHICH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1230 AM AND 2 AM. SEBASTIAN INLET BRIDGE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AT 113 AM.
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA LINE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO THE GULF COAST REGION AND WILL STILL BE THE CASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES IN PLACE WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT EAST. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THUS PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDS IN. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED NIGHTTIME LOWS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST AND WARMER ALONG POINTS EAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS TOWARDS THE CWA.
1057 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HUGE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. JOAQUIN AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY IF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH.
605 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. AND TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES.
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
921 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT HAS KEPT CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WHICH WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR LOCATED ACROSS GA/SC WESTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT AND LIKELY LOW VALUES OF THE DAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THIS WARMER AIR MOVES WESTWARD.
THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTING SOME CONTINUED LIFT IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE LOWER CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIA WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. /ISSUED 210 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS VERY GRADUALLY EASTWARD. WRAPPING AROUND TOPSIDE OF DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE AND WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT SOME BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER LOW WRAPAROUND FROM THE EAST WILL SCATTER OUT SO WILL LIKELY SEE MORE CUMULUS THAN STRATOCU OVER EASTERN CWA. EVOLVING PATTERN INCLUDING DEEP LOW OVER DESERT SW COMBINED WITH UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WILL LOCK OUR SECTION OF COUNTRY IN UPPER RIDGE.
1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELINQUISH CONTROL ON SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 77 60 77 / 90 30 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 78 57 76 / 80 20 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 78 59 77 / 80 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 73 55 75 / 60 20 20 20 NC.
848 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HUGE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. JOAQUIN AND THE PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY IF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
1022 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD IN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN TO CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE IN TERMS OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THAT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW GA AND THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WONT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTATION WILL. THIS WARMER AREA WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY BUT I CANNOT JUSTIFY THE AGGRESSIVE WARMUP THAT THE GFS ELUDES TOWARD.
614 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE WE'RE LOOKING AT A QUIET NIGHT UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC THUS NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGING INTO OUR REGION.
1136 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 943 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/ THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MARCH IS STARTING OFF MIGHTY FINE IF YOU PREFER WARMER CONDITIONS. THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CIRCULATION AROUND IT CONTINUED TO BRING WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER INLAND. WITH GENERALLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES REIGNING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE STRONG AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED EAST OF THE GA COAST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BULGING TOWARDS THAT AREA WILL ALLOW IT TO MEANDER THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW IN NORTHEAST CO/NEB PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY.
348 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 Current radar shows plenty of convection across the area this morning courtesy of a large upper level low approaching from the west. Precipitation will increase tonight into tomorrow as the low interacts with a cold front moving south into the Permian Basin. Cooler temperatures will behind the front will stabilize the boundary layer further diminishing the chances for severe weather so hopefully we will see just some much needed rainfall.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PVA/WAA SIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS EVENING. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE NOTION OF SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDED-RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN THE TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FOG MENTION IN AND EAST OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE CWA. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNEDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING WITH IT BUT SOME CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A CLOSED LOW. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH DUE TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE TRENDING WEAKER NOW BOTH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LOW PULLING FARTHER AWAY. UTAH REMAINS UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THUS WITH DRIER AIR, LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO READINGS COOLER THAN HAVE BEEN SEEN IN A WHILE. STILL THE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
214 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS WELL IN THE 50S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND BY WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO FLOW OFF COOLER WATERS. UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/S TX LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE STILL FASTER THAN 00Z ECMWF IN MOVING THE LOW AND MOISTURE INTO THE SE.
236 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
THE UPPER LOW WAS EXITING NE OUT OF COLORADO THIS EVENING. A BROADER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONGER LOW WORKS ACROSS NW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO THE PROGRESSING LONGWAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LATE-DAY SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MTNS.
1114 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.
258 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016 A STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO IS WEAK SSW. IT APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY.
1253 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SO GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CWA WEDS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE BUT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
1131 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SINCE PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA. THOUGH NORTH WINDS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE PLAINS AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTH.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED OPEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NE PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN SASK AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MAN TUE. BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
359 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING WILL BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT.
STARTING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER AREA ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY. A SHALLOW RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WED AFTERNOON. THE EC IS THE FASTEST MODEL WITH THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. AND A LITTLE WARMER WED THAN TUE DUE TO THE WARM FRONT AND CHANGE TO WINDS WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH 80 FOR MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW AND EVEN WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. A MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.
THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND LIFT STAY WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY.
The low pressure area that brought rain and snow to the area early in the day is now centered well to the south over Northern Baja. Skies have cleared out for most areas this evening and temperatures are mostly running cooler than last night other than the north end of the valley which has some light northerly winds that are helping to keep temperatures warmer. Weak ridging over the area most of the day will help to keep most locations dry until late in the day and evening hours when a warm front moves over the interior to bring a mix of sprinkles and showers for the valley.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
334 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT WHILE WE HAVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS OVER OUR REGION INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIDGING TAKES OVER AGAIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO.
1116 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER- RUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH.
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS SWLY EVOLUTION AS SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN U. AND STRONG RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE DEPICTED BY MODEL RUN CONSENSUS TO SHIFT EWD OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS ENTIRE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMPLEX SFC/ALOFT STILL LOOKS LIKE TI WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FROM ENTERING THE MID STATE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK, SO LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO TRACK THE UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING AND LOCALIZED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN SANTA CURZ. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
1138 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016 AT H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEBRASKA TONIGHT. BUT THREAT OF SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEAR KAIA AND PINE RIDGE SO LEFT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. 20 NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW GETTING CUT OFF OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS BY MID WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT, SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW CLOUDS IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA AND OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN WILL SAG AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST BLAINE COUNTY.
357 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 55 KTS FROM ERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MLCAPE AND ABOUT 30 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. AS THE H300 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US MORPHS INTO A CUTOFF LOW ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AND TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SQUARELY WITHIN THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW. AS SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING AT A LOT OF MOISTURE BOTTLED UP IN THE 900-850MB LAYER WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. HEDGED THE LOWS TOWARD CONSENSUS VALUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY COULD BE WARMER IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 14 IF THEIR CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT BEFORE WEDNESDAY DAY BREAK. WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
208 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. LOW PRESSURE WITH RAIN BY LATE WEEK. CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE ANOMALOUS WARM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U. WILL COMBINE TO BRING A WARMER AND DRY TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.