Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
133 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather through at least the weekend. High pressure and a rising height field will guarantee beautiful weather across the region this afternoon. Fair weather can again be anticipated for tonight as high pressure will remain firmly entrenched across the region. Mins will range from 60 along the immediate lake shores to the lower 50s in some of the Srn Tier valleys. as stacked high pressure will be in firm control. Given a slightly warmer start to the day and H85 temps in the mid teens c. afternoon max temps will generally be in the lower 80s.
253 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 18z surface data has low pressure over central Nebraska and high pressure over the Ohio Valley. A front ran northeast from the low into eastern Lake Superior. Once the clouds break up, very warm conditions will be seen across the area with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Weather regime will turn more active starting today as an upper trough digs into the Intermountain West while a ridge across the Southern Plains the last few days, is pushed into the Great Lakes. For this morning, a small wave rotating out ahead of the upper trough will interact with a belt of 800-850 hPa theta-e advection and modest MUCAPE. Saturday into Saturday night will see the upper trough begin edging into the Rockies which will help the cold front slide southward before stalling from far southwest KS toward Kansas City. The first and most obvious change this will create is cooler temperatures as highs in the 80s to near 90 look possible for Saturday.
An upper trough to our west is producing deep-layer southwesterly flow over the region as evidenced by this morning's KTAE sounding. This has increased the depth of the moist layer through the day providing for enough instability for convection considering temperatures have risen into the lower 90s in some areas.
119 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. This will result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
313 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Developing mean upper level troughing across the western U. More widespread thunderstorms are likely to develop Saturday afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Storms will likely expand to the south and east across much of the area Saturday night before the cold front eventually stalls somewhere near or just south of I-70.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a shallow trough over the Gulf of Mexico with a low amplitude ridge over West Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to our east and winds were from the south to southeast. There was a trough over West Texas producing convection. The upper level ridge will become dominant during this period. The low level flow will remain south to southeasterly, so we don't expect much change in the weather.
Upper heights do increase overnight ahead of the approaching deep trough and lift the stationary front further north as a warm front.
136 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Onshore flow, coastal stratus, and below-normal temperatures will persist throughout the period in association with an upper level trough. Highs Saturday expected to be a little warmer than today with earlier and somewhat better clearing.
/issued 357 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/ Pattern shift to (suddenly) deep troughing over the west and southwest flow aloft over the southern high plains for the coming week will allow late season monsoonal moisture flow into the region and up and down thunderstorm consideration. Modest instability and low shear should spell generic storms, though steep remaining lapse rates in the lower atmosphere might lead to a few strong outflow wind gusts. Saturday, heights should build over the Texas coast behind today's ejecting wave into the northern plains and the deeper trough lifting into Alberta.
552 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A large 500 hPa ridge with dominate our weather over the next 8 days. The only fly in the ointment is the trough and low pressure associated with Jose.
Troughing associated with the remnants of Irma extends southwest into the western Gulf of Mexico. Upper ridging extends northeast from Cuba over southern Florida and toward Bermuda. This ridge will help keep Hurricane Jose well out into the western Atlantic.
301 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and much warmer to eastern Kentucky through the weekend. Highs on Saturday should top out in the lower 80s across the area. Low temperatures the next two nights will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. In general models depict mean mid level ridging over the lower Ohio Valley through the first half of the extended.
Showers and storms will also be possible in the east/southeast part of the forecast area despite some broad ridging aloft.
This axis is located along the leading edge of a trough which will pivot through eastern Utah and western Colorado overnight into Saturday. Precipitation along this trough has been limited to mainly light showers from Vernal eastward through Hayden as cloud cover has curtailed instability values over the north so far today. Areas south of I-70 will likely remain too dry in the mid levels to support any substantial convection, and shower activity will remain confined to the higher terrain of the San Juans and Continental Divide. Westerly winds will increase, especially north of I-70, on Saturday as the trough passes through around noon. Expect a quiet afternoon as a dry continental airmass moves in behind the trough.
The weekend looks mostly dry, with warm temperatures, as high pressure builds back over the region. The upper level low which moved through the region yesterday is now over New England. Upper level heights build but weak troughiness over northeast Pennsylvania and the southern Catskills could still trigger an isolated shower.
With high pressure well to our east, and an approaching low pressure system from the High Plains, a southerly wind flow will increase the next 24 hours. The rest of the area will be clear with temperatures in the lower 60s. The result will be very persistent, warmer than normal temperatures and an increasingly unsettled period as our atmosphere eventually moistens.
A broad trough is forecast to develop across the western U. This is expected to result in strong winds and cooler temperatures. A better chance for showers may also result with a trough passage, but it doesn't look particularly moist in the latest model runs.
Once that burns off, mostly sunny skies and south winds 5 to 10 mph will bring temperatures into the lower 80s across most of the region by afternoon.
130 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. A lee trough within a very weak surface pattern east of the Appalachians will get overwhelmed by both high pressure over the central Appalachians and the cyclonic flow around Jose.
1201 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 241 AM CDT Benign weather continues under an upper level ridge. JEE 241 AM CDT The ridge dominates the pattern through Saturday leading to another very warm and dry day.
Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
318 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure remains over the area, but upper level disturbance moving across south Georgia tomorrow will provide enough focus and moisture to produce isolated to scattered precipitation.
Can't complete rule out upstream convection across the Peninsula moving southwest into marine areas north of the Lower Keys this evening.
259 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A large 500 hPa ridge with dominate our weather over the next 8 days. The only fly in the ointment is the trough and low pressure associated with Jose.
Only minor changes at this time for cloud cover, slightly cooler temperatures tonight and Saturday, and a little more wind behind the front during the night. There is a band of moisture with the trough that should bring scattered showers to the central mountains, and a better organized batch of showers to areas north of Berthoud Pass. Meanwhile a cold front will move across northeastern Colorado this evening. If that happens more slowly it will be cooler.
Temperatures are warm with mid 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to drop south across the Plains late tonight into Saturday morning. This will bring a northerly wind shift and cooler air into the Plains for Saturday. Southwest winds will also subside with cooler temperatures expected across the region leading to a very pleasant day across Southern Colorado.
With plenty of sunshine and mixing in the lower atmosphere, most areas in central IL should reach 90 degrees, with 86-89 in all of eastern Illinois. Moisture is somewhat limited, so with dew points generally in the lower to mid 60s, there should be little influence on the heat index despite unseasonably warm temperatures.
The mid/upper ridge over the area breaks down/shifts east over the next couple days, ushering in southwest flow aloft to the west of the forecast area. By Saturday afternoon a cold front will push into northern Missouri and by late in the day, perhaps in the evening, will develop storms across the KC metro area and the I-70 corridor.
The warmer temperatures and good winds will allow for much of north central Kansas and the far southern counties in Nebraska to have some near critical fire weather conditions. The front that has been sitting just to the northwest of the forecast area early this morning will start to move to the south as a cold front tonight.
238 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weather in the short term will be dominated by light flow in the lower atmosphere. This flow is a result of deep ridging in place, that will keep us both warm and dry. We should see temperatures a little warmer each day for lows and highs. The first is how close will Tropical Cyclone Jose get to the mid-Atlantic U. coast, and consequently, how strong will the ridging be over us.
A deep upper level trough sits over the region today with its trough axis over Idaho. This places most of the forecast area on the dry and cool backside of the trough. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the Lower Columbia Basin only in the lower to mid 70s and an even cooler 50s and 60s in the higher elevations. Areas of smoke will continue to affect the area through the TAF period with the highest impacts expected at DLS and YKM where visibilities will vary between 1 to 4 SM until mixing increases this afternoon.
Similar conditions into the weekend with a little less wind as the new mean trough position through much of the West dominates. Still not much steering flow for the storm right now, but she will eventually catch on to the far western flank of the ridge redeveloping from central Mexico through Texas and southeastern states. There will be a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain east of Tucson through Saturday. Gusty south to southwest winds again today as a trough moves north of the area across the Great Basin.
Another warm and breezy day is expected on Saturday with the tight pressure gradient continuing ahead of the main low pressure system in the plains. Thunderstorm chances will increase on Saturday night with the cold front approaching from the northwest.
High pressure across the area will remain in place through the weekend along with warm temperatures and light winds. Cumulus have developed across the area today with high pressure keeping vertical development very limited. High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast U.
656 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure will persist through Saturday.
The main large upper level low/trough remains over the Rockies this afternoon, and is forecast to lift northeastward through North Dakota Saturday and Saturday night. After a cool day today, look for lows tonight from the mid and upper 30s west to the lower 50s southeast.
Weak upper level troughing just west of the area will maintain deep moisture with southerly flow across the area today. The highest concentration of activity is expected across the southern and eastern half of the area where the deepest moisture is expected. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
655 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A large 500 hPa ridge with dominate our weather over the next 8 days. The only fly in the ointment is the trough and low pressure associated with Jose.
Northern Michigan remains locked between high pressure anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley and developing low pressure stretching from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. So although the warmer than normal conditions will continue, not expecting anywhere near record breaking temperatures. Saturday still looking to be the warmest day on the horizon with highs in the low to mid 80s for most. With not as much moisture in the low levels tonight along with a southerly breeze, not expecting as much fog development as the last couple nights.
Lows tonight are expected to be slightly above normal for this time of the year, ranging from the upper 60s to near 70 over inland areas to the lower 70s closer to the coast, with a few mid 70s along the beaches.
350 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Quiet weather will persist through the first part of the weekend as a ridge of high pressure is slow to depart to the east.
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Southerly winds will pick up today ahead of a weak cold front.
Troughing over the western third of the CONUS continues to bring below normal temperatures to the central California area. Highs yesterday and today have risen only to the low to middle 80s.
A low and associated deep upper trough will begin to pivot northeast.
For tonight have trended the minimum temperatures down by using the lowest of all guidance for low temperatures tonight. This would have worked out well last night as well as temperatures were 5 to 7 degrees cooler across the southwest than the ensemble guidance was. The cold front will be the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms along a narrow band of instability Wednesday night.
/issued 233 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ The cold front that moved through the region this morning has successfully resulted in very unseasonably cool temperatures and increased cloud cover for the day. Temperatures will begin to warm Wednesday as upper ridging builds east, advecting very warm 850mb temps eastward.
1036 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Diurnally driven showers have all but ended as the sun sets, with the upper low currently spinning over Iowa.
High pressure aloft will shift east of the region early Wednesday. This exiting high pressure will be followed by a series of weather disturbances which will impact Utah late Wednesday through the first half of the upcoming weekend.
A deep upper level closed low was situated along the Minnesota/Iowa border this afternoon with a deep upper level trough dominating much of the CONUS. Quiet weather is expected through tonight and Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds in from the northern Plains and Rockies. A high pressure ridge at the surface will move through western Kansas overnight with northerly winds diminishing and becoming northwesterly by Wednesday morning. Am not overly concerned with the potential for frost tonight especially given that dewpoint temperatures are staying above freezing. The upper level ridge over the central Plains on Wednesday will move east of the region Wednesday night with westerly flow aloft developing through the remainder of the week.
An inland cooling trend will continue through late week as high pressure weakens and the marine influence increases. Minor warming is then expected during the upcoming weekend as high pressure returns to the West Coast. With this, the warmest temperatures persist over inland areas while cooler temperatures (generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s) are common at the coast. However, as the ridge aloft weakens and onshore flow increases, inland locations will see the gradual cooling trend continue into Wednesday. Further cooling is expected late in the week as the ridge flattens and an upper level low drops down into the northern Rockies.
1148 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 A large amplitude vertically stacked low pressure system resides over the northern plains creating most of the weather impacts in this region for the next 48 hours. This low will quickly push to the south through eastern MO Wednesday morning sparking off another around of showers over central MO which will also have limited thunderstorm potential and last off and on through sunset as the low starts to push east. Temperatures will remain below average on Wednesday as well with even a slight decrease of a couple degrees with the low overhead.
720 PM PDT Tue May 23 2017 A strong cold front will plow through the region this evening bringing gusty winds especially to Central Washington. Blustery conditions will persist into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures a solid twenty degrees cooler than today.
A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over the highest terrain the next few days. A building ridge allows for a warm up at the end of the weekend. As the Rex Block across the Pacific breaks down, closed upper low pressure will open and approach the coast, with jet max rounding the southern periphery of the former block perhaps delivering near wind advisory criteria gusts across the coastal ridges and deserts into Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Flatter pattern into the weekend leads to more normal like high temps, before deepening trough south of Alaska helps to pump heights again along the west coast, with temps warming. The warmup and additional instability will lead to at least slight chances for showers and thunderstorms across the high sierra again at the end of the forecast.
falls in association with this low were most pronounced across northeastern Kansas into eastern Iowa. As of midday, based on satellite imagery, the low was located near Jackson Minnesota. Across northeastern portions of the forecast area, a shield of clouds was noted as it is in much closer in proximity to the upper level low. Overnight, high pressure will build south from the Dakotas into central Nebraska. The latest temperature guidance this morning came in 1 to 2 degrees cooler than the inherited forecast. With light westerly winds expected overnight, trended lows toward the cooler guidance which tends to verify better. That being said, with the cooler temps, am expecting areas of frost to develop in the northeastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills overnight.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight as a cold front moves through the state. Upper low pressure will move south through Missouri tonight and clip northeast Arkansas on Wednesday. Rain chances will continue until this low moves east of the state. Clouds and the presence of the upper low Wednesday will keep our temperatures cool.
930 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017 Isolated light showers dotting mainly the Neb Panhandle this afternoon on far west side of upper low over Iowa. A short upper ridge will pass across the region Weds boding for warmer and dry weather with mainly clear skies.
Short res modeling suggests it will take awhile longer for height falls to reach the still ridging eastern parts of the FA, and by then, then sun will be down, so slgt chance mentions, or less, have been applied for our eastern counties this pm. Pops do expand area-wide and peak in the likely range tonight, as the evolving upper trof drives a cold front across the region. Pops remain high tmrw, and actually peak again in the likely cat in the pm across our east, with diurnal instability enhancement and the upper Low still over scntl MO. Then they'll diminish and end overnight Wed night, as the Low moves east of the Tennessee valley.
While the cool northerly flow across the Northland today has resulted in widespread and thick cumulus, as well as some showers, there will be a bit of clearing trend into tonight with the approaching high pressure. However, areas of the northwest forecast area will see temperatures drop into the lower and middle 30s. Warmer and sunnier weather is forecast for Wednesday with high pressure moving through the Northland. Cool easterly flow from Lake Superior will keep areas near Lake Superior much cooler than inland areas. Highs will range from the lower and middle 50s near the Lake, to the lower and middle 60s well inland.
We're now on the back side of the upper trough and mid level drying will continue. Dunn /ISSUED 631 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ Thunderstorms associated with an upper trough have moved east and south of the forecast area as the trough axis moves southeast across the region. /ISSUED 400 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ By mid-afternoon, a cold front had moved through the entire CWA. Outside of the severe thunderstorm watch, thunderstorms will still be possible until the mid-level trough axis passes, but with tall/skinny CAPE, deep showers should be the primary mode.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area as low pressure continues to impact the region. The low responsible for this activity will slowly move south and east late tonight into Wednesday. Shower chances linger into Wednesday then we will finally dry out a little by Wednesday night as high pressure edges in from the west.
537 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure ridging will bring warmer air aloft with 700 mb temps up to 12 to 13C by Wednesday afternoon.
Elongated area of low pressure extends from Quebec thru Michigan and Wisconsin into the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. with upper level trough aligned just behind it to the NW. Main upper low is now centered along the Minnesota/ Iowa border. Plenty of rather weak convection continues to develop all around this complex area of deep low pressure. Better synoptic support via the short wave and the low itself will push further south toward the Ohio Valley. Low temps tonight will range from the mid 40s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 50s across our SW CWA. High temps on Wednesday will be mainly in the low to mid 60s.
For the ArkLaTex, upper low right overhead KSHV/KTXK and pushing showers East quickly and overnight skies will clear from W to E.
A corridor of slightly negative LI and SBCAPE near 1000 east of I-65, combined with some deep moisture convergence and a weak pool of slightly cooler temperatures aloft, has led to thunderstorm development west of Lake Cumberland. Much Cooler and Rainy Overnight and Wednesday. A deepening upper low over Iowa will dive south to Missouri overnight. Steady pressure falls continue across the area this afternoon as a broad area of low pressure develops. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along a weak cold front from IL down into MO. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s.
1128 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Diurnally driven showers have all but ended as the sun sets, with the upper low currently spinning over Iowa. Think some clouds will linger over SE KS for most of the overnight hours as the upper low drops south through MO.
An upper level disturbance extending down from the Ozarks down into extreme east Texas will move east and quickly push a cold front across the forecast area during the remainder of the overnight. /issued 922 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ A cold front was located from Alexandria to Beaumont and continued to move southeast across our area. /issued 359 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ Afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Texarkana southwest to Austin. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorms already developing along the cold front as it progresses to the southeast. High pressure will build over the region during the day on Wednesday resulting in drier and cooler conditions.