Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently - A pressure ridge stretches across the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic. However, it is not affecting the Keys due to a surface through lower level trough saddling Florida. A band of increased deep layered moisture runs along the trough axis. Forecast - The previously mentioned ridge across the southeast will gradually dissipate over the next couple of days as a mid latitude trough moves off the northeast Atlantic Coast and Hurricane Fiona moves north of Hispaniola then begins to recurve northward well east of the Bahamas. The lower level trough across our area will remain the primary driver of local weather tonight into tomorrow then shift westward and wash out tomorrow night.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across North Texas and Oklahoma through the next 24 hours. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with a few locations, mainly across the Big Country, reaching the upper 90s.
A progressing Canadian low will dig a broad trough across the Manitoba and Saskatchewan tomorrow. This trough could bring severe weather to north central North Dakota Monday afternoon. A southerly low level jet will advect warm moisture into central and eastern North Dakota early morning through afternoon increasing dew points into the lower 60s. Temperatures are forecast to increase into the lower to mid 80s Monday afternoon increasing instability.
102 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will remain over central North Carolina into the upcoming week.
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 A ridge of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic states is bringing a continuation of rain free weather to Arkansas this morning. Light southerly flow on the backside of high pressure is present across the state and GOES-16 Satellite trends showing little if any cloud cover with the start of some diurnal cumulus beginning to develop over the Ozark and Quachita Mountains and the Arkansas Valley. As of 11 AM CDT, temperatures across the forecast area are in the lower to middle 80s across most locations. 925 mb temperatures around 25C should translate to highs in the lower to perhaps middle 90s.
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today through Monday) Ridging will strengthen some over the southern Plains through the short term, centering near the Red River tonight and tomorrow and keeping us mostly dry and seasonally warm.
1112 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Current surface map shows weak trough across western South Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the area tonight/Monday with robust low level warm advection.
246 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 The large-scale weather pattern in the short term will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure anchored over the southern Plains and a closed-low off of the California coast. An isolated afternoon/early evening shower or thunderstorm is possible over the higher terrain across the south today. Moisture will increase on Monday as the fetch of subtropical moisture rotates northeast across the Four-Corners region around the ridge of high pressure to our east. Expect a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity across the south late Monday, especially over the higher terrain. The long-range pattern remains consistent with the closed-low off of the California coast and the ridge of high pressure to our east over the southern Plains.
/Issued 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022/ /Rest of Today through Monday/ As mid/upper level ridging dominates overhead, North & Central Texas will remain rain-free and unseasonably warm through Monday. With only slight strengthening/repositioning of the ridge expected, a persistence type forecast is in store as the trend of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal continues. South winds will remain near 5 to 10 mph, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s before another warm, mostly sunny day on Monday with highs in the mid 90s.
1238 PM PDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Cooler temperatures continue ahead of a trough of low pressure hanging off the California Coast. South/southwest winds will likely pick up later this afternoon into this evening in the mountains and hills along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as over ridgetops in the Sierra Nevada, with gusts as strong as 45 mph.
312 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Late this afternoon through Monday: The weather pattern over the forecast area is becoming increasingly hot and humid as a strong subtropical ridge persists across the Gulf Coast states. /EC/ Upper ridging will be in control through much of the forecast period.
221 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Synoptic Overview: The mid-latitude westerlies /SW flow aloft/ will recede to higher latitudes in this period -- as an amplifying upper level ridge (over the Southern Plains) extends northward over the Central Plains.
146 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend. A cold front passes to the north Monday night, bringing a small chance of showers to southeastern West Virginia. High pressure continues to gradually shift east today as a weak front approaches the area from the west. Large 500mb ridge will continue to build over the Southern Plains this week, keeping most activity well to the north of the area.
1257 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Astronomical Summer 2022 will end on a warm note, before a pattern change brings noticeably cooler temperatures into the last weekend of September right on time for the start of Fall.
1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today and tonight) The continued presence of a relatively stationary dome of upper level high pressure, centered over north Texas and southern Oklahoma, will expand somewhat today into tomorrow resulting in very little change in ambient weather conditions from the previous few days.
MUCAPE values will likely stay in the 1,000 - 2,000 J/KG range tonight along and ahead of an advancing cold front.
250 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) The trend of no major changes continues in the short term as high pressure reigns supreme.
(This evening through Monday) Pressure heights will continue to rise as an upper ridge builds in from out of the south keeping us hot and dry through the short term.
High temperatures today are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal along the coast and in the low deserts. In the valleys and High Deserts, highs will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Astronomical Summer 2022 will end on a warm note, before a pattern change brings noticeably cooler temperatures into the last weekend of September right on time for the start of Fall.
/13 (Now through Monday) Surface and upper level ridging will continue to build across the area. Drier mid level air with PW values around 1 inch will continue to move into the area around the upper ridge. However, the increasing subsidence from the upper ridge and the drier airmass moving into the area will keep coverage isolated. Increasing subsidence on Monday from the building mid/upper level ridge will keep conditions rain-free. Highs on Monday will be in the low 90s.
133 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Astronomical Summer 2022 will end on a warm note, before a pattern change brings noticeably cooler temperatures into the last weekend of September right on time for the start of Fall.
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) Mid-level high pressure continues to slowly build across the Southern Plains into the early week. Subsidence under mid-level high pressure keeps almost all locations high and dry.
151 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 19z surface analysis had weak high pressure over the upper Midwest and lee trough from central MT into central CO. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge over TX, expanding into the northern plains. Upper low spins just west of northern CA. Upper ridge the main short term weather maker. Tonight/Monday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the CWA as a warm front shifts east across the CWA Monday. Behind warm front, southwest/west downslope flow picks up.
237 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Dry weather continues into midweek as a dome of high pressure expands across the Southeast.
(Now through Monday) Surface and upper level ridging will continue to build across the area. Drier mid level air with PW values around 1 inch will continue to move into the area around the upper ridge. However, the increasing subsidence from the upper ridge and the drier airmass moving into the area will keep coverage isolated. Increasing subsidence on Monday from the building mid/upper level ridge will keep conditions rain-free. Highs on Monday will be in the low 90s.
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 A ridge of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley and Mid- Atlantic states is bringing a continuation of rain free weather to Arkansas this morning. Light southerly flow on the backside of high pressure is present across the state and GOES-16 Satellite trends showing little if any cloud cover with the start of some diurnal cumulus beginning to develop over the Ozark and Quachita Mountains and the Arkansas Valley. As of 11 AM CDT, temperatures across the forecast area are in the lower to middle 80s across most locations. 925 mb temperatures around 25C should translate to highs in the lower to perhaps middle 90s.
1252 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Ridging working into the region and sensible weather is behaving as expected. Satellite imagery indicates the low clouds across Baudette, Bemidji area will soon be east. Put out an SPS earlier for patchy dense fog, and do not think at this point that the lower vis are widespread enough to upgrade to advisory. There could be a fairly narrow band of good instability (over 1500 J/kg CAPE) along and ahead of the trough axis, and deep layer bulk shear is pretty strong in the 45 to 50 kt range. The period starts with a generally zonal flow aloft as the upper level ridge weakens due to a series of impulses propagating through the flow.
315 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Strong late-season upper ridge centered over the Red River Valley is fueling a September mini-heatwave, but the real short-term impact will come once the Ring of Fire lights up late this afternoon into early evening. Moisture pooling over southeast Iowa and northwest Illinois has pushed sfc dewpoints into the lower/mid 70s, and that will be the genesis region for a MCS within the next few hrs.
An upper level ridge remains aloft tomorrow promoting mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. Warming in the temperatures aloft will result in temperatures a couple degrees warmer than the previous day.
728 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend. A cold front passes to the north Monday night, bringing a small chance of showers to southeastern West Virginia. High pressure continues to gradually shift east tonight as a weak front approaches the area from the west. Large 500mb ridge will continue to build over the Southern Plains this week, keeping most activity well to the north of the area.
RMS A southwest flow aloft will prevail through Monday as a result of an upper low positioned along the California coast. This will result in rising heights and warmer temperatures. For Monday, expect mostly sunny skies, dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a weak flow regime through the lower and middle troposphere over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. Lower-tropospheric flow is weakly cyclonic about a north-south trough axis over the Florida Peninsula.
524 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 19z surface analysis had weak high pressure over the upper Midwest and lee trough from central MT into central CO. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge over TX, expanding into the northern plains. Upper low spins just west of northern CA. Upper ridge the main short term weather maker. Tonight/Monday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the CWA as a warm front shifts east across the CWA Monday. Behind warm front, southwest/west downslope flow picks up.
Breezy afternoons with cooler than average temperatures expected as we head into the workweek.
539 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 The large-scale weather pattern in the short term will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure anchored over the southern Plains and a closed-low off of the California coast. An isolated afternoon/early evening shower or thunderstorm is possible over the higher terrain across the south today. Moisture will increase on Monday as the fetch of subtropical moisture rotates northeast across the Four-Corners region around the ridge of high pressure to our east. Expect a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity across the south late Monday, especially over the higher terrain. The long-range pattern remains consistent with the closed-low off of the California coast and the ridge of high pressure to our east over the southern Plains.
Overnight the weak area of low pressure over the area will drift out over the eastern gulf waters with a few showers near it, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with some late night patchy fog possible across the Nature Coast down to around the Interstate 4 corridor.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected over the Atlantic waters through the overnight hours, with the highest coverage expected in the off shore waters.
613 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (This evening through Monday) Pressure heights will continue to rise as an upper ridge builds in from out of the south keeping us hot and dry through the short term.
549 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Synoptic Overview: The mid-latitude westerlies /SW flow aloft/ will recede to higher latitudes in this period -- as an amplifying upper level ridge (over the Southern Plains) extends northward over the Central Plains.
716 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (Through Monday) High pressure will continue to slide in from the west, with east to northeasterly flow in place we'll continue to see our easternmost counties and the SE FL Big Bend have the best chances for precip as that is where the best instability lies. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as high pressure at the surface and aloft remain over the region. /19/ Late this afternoon through Monday: The weather pattern over the forecast area is becoming increasingly hot and humid as a strong subtropical ridge persists across the Gulf Coast states. /EC/ Upper ridging will be in control through much of the forecast period.
619 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across North Texas and Oklahoma through the next 24 hours. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with a few locations, mainly across the Big Country, reaching the upper 90s.
(This afternoon through Monday) The trend of no major changes continues in the short term as high pressure reigns supreme.
There is still dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere so the showers should dissipate as they track far enough northeastward. RMS A southwest flow aloft will prevail through Monday as a result of an upper low positioned along the California coast. This will result in rising heights and warmer temperatures. For Monday, expect mostly sunny skies, dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
628 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Late this afternoon through Monday: The weather pattern over the forecast area is becoming increasingly hot and humid as a strong subtropical ridge persists across the Gulf Coast states. /EC/ Upper ridging will be in control through much of the forecast period.
Otherwise mainly just scattered showers expected overnight as the sfc cold front arrives from the west with pops ranging from only 20-30 pct north of I-96 to about 60 percent along I-94. MUCAPE values will likely stay in the 1,000 - 2,000 J/KG range tonight along and ahead of an advancing cold front.
145 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Through Monday) High pressure will continue to slide in from the west, with east to northeasterly flow in place we'll continue to see our easternmost counties and the SE FL Big Bend have the best chances for precip as that is where the best instability lies. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. A mid-level ridge builds in from the west, with deep layer northeast flow supporting offshore winds, except for a weak seabreeze near the immediate coast. Highs will be a few degrees warmer compared to Monday with lower 90s away from the immediate coast.
A return to mild temperatures is expected on Monday afternoon, before a fast moving cold front moves southward on Tuesday. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be much cooler over North Central MT.
1114 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 The large-scale weather pattern in the short term will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure anchored over the southern Plains and a closed-low off of the California coast. An isolated afternoon/early evening shower or thunderstorm is possible over the higher terrain across the south today. Moisture will increase on Monday as the fetch of subtropical moisture rotates northeast across the Four-Corners region around the ridge of high pressure to our east. Expect a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity across the south late Monday, especially over the higher terrain. The long-range pattern remains consistent with the closed-low off of the California coast and the ridge of high pressure to our east over the southern Plains.
301 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Today and Tonight: Warm, dry weather is expected across most of the forecast area again today as a mid-level ridge strengthens and expands across the region. 5 inches and instability could overcome the capping influences of the ridge. Otherwise, drier air and influences of the ridge should keep most of the area only partly cloudy. High pressure, light winds, and clear skies will allow for overnight temps to radiate down into the mid-60s again tonight. Patchy early morning shallow fog will be possible as residual low- level moisture settles in cooler low-lying areas, but dense fog is not expected.
123 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A broad area of low pressure will remain just off the coast through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand over the area from the northwest through late week.
Split upper low continues to spin off the northern California coast. Northern trough is positioned over the panhandle area, and not providing any impactful weather for the forecast area.
This ridging that we are squeezed under today will help temperatures rise into the mid 80s this afternoon, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. An upper trough in northern Alberta will sag south but not quite reach our area, briefly flattening the flow and bringing about small chance for cyclonic flow that could produce light rain showers west and north of Billings tonight. Its associated cold front will turn winds to the north to northeast this evening, but little wind or precipitation potential is expected with it. The cooler air behind it will bring about a chilly Tuesday, with highs possibly not getting above 60 (or not getting above 70 in SE MT).
956 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Synoptic Overview: The mid-latitude westerlies /SW flow aloft/ will recede to higher latitudes in this period -- as an amplifying upper level ridge (over the Southern Plains) extends northward over the Central Plains.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Mid-level high pressure continues its slow build across the Southern Plains. This area of high pressure slowly slides west over the next several days. Most locations remain dry as subsidence under the ridge keeps convection out of the forecast.
1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across North Texas and Oklahoma through the next 24 hours. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with a few locations, mainly across the Big Country, reaching the upper 90s.
252 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Current surface map places warm front across northwest South Dakota with robust warm advection across the forecast area. Cold front slides into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota tonight and makes it through southwest/south central South Dakota Tuesday morning.
Clearing will allow for a warm and sunny afternoon, ahead of a notable cold frontal passage this evening. Elevated winds will result from the front along with a few showers, mainly over the higher terrain toward central Montana. High temperatures will be close to 20 degrees cooler on Tuesday, with lighter winds Tuesday night likely leading to the first widespread frost and a freeze for typically cooler locations.
244 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 A large upper low will gradually lift north into Wisconsin on Friday, keeping periods of showers continuing over central Illinois into Friday morning.
At the surface, a trough is moving over the Dakotas, and the cold front is moving through MT. However, this seems to be on the high end compared to other models. Still expecting the majority of the WY Black Hills zone to remain within advisory criteria, so left that headline as is, although the highest elevations may get a little more. Still appears that the Pine Ridge area may have a localized QPF maximum due to moisture convergence, although the timing during the day on Friday will limit snow accumulations to a couple inches or so. Additionally, strong CAA and pressure rises of 4-6 mb behind the cold front will result in strong winds overnight.
1255 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 An upper level ridge will pass over Pennsylvania today.
An expansive ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather pattern over the last week continues to remain established over the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. This ridge of high pressure will begin to slide eastwards into the Atlantic Ocean, as a low pressure system and an associated frontal boundary moves eastwards across the southern Mississippi Valley. The interaction between these features will allow for an increased pressure gradient across South Florida between the approaching frontal feature and the departing ridge of high pressure. The subsidence associated with the departing ridge of high pressure and the lack of any real progression of the front southwards in the short-term period will lead to mostly dry and benign conditions for the remainder of the work week.
There seems to be a warm front somewhere around Hickman to Williams to Coffee to Warren to Cumberland. Along and south of the warm front is the best instability with LI's around -3 and CAPE around 500 J/KG. As the cold front moves through this afternoon will continue to watch the eastern half of Middle TN for strong to severe storms.
1219 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 An upper level ridge will pass over Pennsylvania today.
Surface analysis this evening places a warm front over Central/Southern Mississippi back through Northern Louisiana and the Red River Valley of Texas. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the lower 60s to mid 70s. The clouds are associated with an upper level low currently over northeast Missouri. The cold front which moved through the region last night and this morning is now across central Mississippi. As the upper low moves northeast, clouds will exit the region tonight leaving mostly clear skies. On Friday, the frontal boundary over central Mississippi will move back north as a warm front and should get close to the region. In addition, a cold front will approach the region from the west.
1033 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
Focus turns to severe weather threat Friday afternoon/evening ahead of strong cold front.
826 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 A large upper low will gradually lift north into Wisconsin on Friday, keeping periods of showers continuing over central Illinois into Friday morning.
724 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 High pressure will move offshore tonight.