Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
358 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015 (Tonight and Friday) Upper level high pressure was building in from the east, with even cumulus clouds being suppressed this afternoon.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DRIER. COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
243 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE THIS WEEK.
146 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015 A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING COOL WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH COULD BRING DRIZZLE TO AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH BACK IN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND WILL PULL SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. UPPER RIDGE WILL WORK WESTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND PLACING MID STATE ON EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE AND IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
157 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES /20 POPS/ FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/. UPPER RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY WILL BUILD FARTHER WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
344 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 ONCE AGAIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS WINNING OUT AS JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF AN INVERTED MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO THE MIDDLE GULF SOUTH COAST. THIS AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MIGRATE WESTWARD. THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GROW IN THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH SLIDES AWAY. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES WEST. FRIDAY WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN THURSDAY. PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR LIMA. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD/CLEARING SKIES. PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH BULK OF MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA BUT DRIFTING TO THE EAST.
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD. CWA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A WAA REGIME AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SFC RIDGING ANCHORED OVER SRN MS/SW AL. LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK H700 INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COAST SW INTO THE CNTRL GULF. WITH THE HRRR/SSEO ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ISOLATED CONVECTION BUILDING A LITTLE FARTHER WNW INTO THE LOWER DELTA REGION/CNTRL AND SRN MS ONCE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WITH UPPER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
DEW PTS HAVE SNUCK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MN. DRIER AIR OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN/WI WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. AS DEW PTS AREA-WIDE REACH THE LOW/MID 60S CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL CHC/S OVER THE WEEKEND REMAIN LOW.
600 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE THIS WEEK.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS /NOTABLY THE NAM12/ ARE GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR.
EARLY SIGNS FROM LOW LIGHT VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGES COMING IN THIS MORNING ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WAVE OF SMOKE IS COMING DOWN WITH THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SSW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
646 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY AND HOT PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND EXPECT NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
THE THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A BOUNDARY PRESSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S.
406 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
226 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND SPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHTER RAIN EXTENDING NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE RAIN WILL END LATER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO MID SUMMER HEAT. A FEW UPSLOPE LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LAST INTO MID EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE NORTHWARDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY STOUT DRY AIR POCKET ROTATING INTO THE EAST COAST IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF MOST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. TUTT LOW DAMPENS OUT AS IT SCOOTS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CUBA THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BEING THE DOMINANT PLAYER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.
AS TEMPS HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
610 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
643 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM WITH THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION BUT HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN THINKING THAT WE WILL STILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AND HEIGHT INCREASES ARE NOT AS MUCH AS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY QUIET WX EXPECTED TNGT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
141 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 A BOUNDARY IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY/VICINITY. HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. RETROGRADING UPPER HIGH WILL END UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES WITH RETURN NW FLOW EXPECTED EAST OF THE PLAINS INTO AN EVENTUAL EAST U. TROF.
Models suggest that the bulk of the lift associated with this wave will be shunted north of the forecast area as the upper ridge over the Southeastern US begins to expand west. For this weekend, the upper ridge that was over the Southeast will spread westward and build over the Southern Plains.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. AND THEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN/EVE. SLIGHT LOWERING TO ALREADY WELL TEMPERED MAX TEMPS AS CLOUD COVER IN WRAP AROUND TO PERSIST WELL INTO AFTN ERN CWA WITH STRONG CYCLONIC DRAW OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTD COOLER TREND INTO TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST DECENT CLEARING/RADIATIONAL LOSS CONDS ALL BUT FAR SERN CWA WHERE STRATOCU COULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR/REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO CA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW. WEAK RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM SERN AZ INTO SERN UT. WHILE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF THE SERN COAST OF THE US WITH A BROAD WSW TO ENE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 30+ KTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT WAS OBSERVED FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO. IF WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE LOW LYING AREAS.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FA. STILL APPEARS THAT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
157 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ANAMOLOUS MOISTURE RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL SLOW TO CLEAR OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST PROVIDING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR CA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Will see a chance creep back in especially in our SW as a warm front takes shape.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE REGION.
334 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 WE ARE STARTING TO BE MORE IMPACTED BY THE ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE ARE UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REGION ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
349 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WITH SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER TROUGHS. MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. A MID AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. MODERATE BREEZES WILL RESULT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
203 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 COLD FRONT RETURNS. ALONG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR.
/18Z TAFS/ Lee trough will bring gusty south winds this afternoon and again Friday beginning mid morning. /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
322 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE RAIN WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO MID SUMMER HEAT. A FEW UPSLOPE LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LAST INTO MID EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS OF MID CONTINENTAL ORIGIN. THE HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS THIS WEEKEND WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AIDED BY THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA. WHICH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SENDS A LOBE OF THE LOW INTO UTAH LATE TODAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 440 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WAS BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY.
STILL EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN CANADA BY 84 HOURS. ALSO PIECES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
DRYING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE EAST. IF NOT LONGER AS THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH EXPANDS WEST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
156 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 COLD FRONT RETURNS. ALONG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN START INCREASING MOISTURE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO BECOME DEFINED TO OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, A LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z AS MIXING INCREASES WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AND A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
107 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL WI.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRI WILL IN THE MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA.
343 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST /GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 90S/. 31 ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ON POPS/WEATHER FOR PERIOD AS MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL ON TAP WITH RETURN OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST CONUS PLACING THE CWA IN NW FLOW AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WEAKENING SLOWLY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALONG A TROUGH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
ANOTHER DAY WITH REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DOMINANT FEATURE REMAINING THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NORTH AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A LATE ARRIVING UPPER IMPULSE THAT COULD DRIVE POPS UPWARD FROM THEIR CURRENT 20 PERCENT VALUES. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM WHICH YIELDS SOME MID 90S FOR NORTH GA AND MID TO UPPER 90S FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WEAKENING SLOWLY.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND.
153 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO MAINE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VERMONT. AS THE AREA OF RAIN TRIES TO INFILTRATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PA/SRN NY THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT SO KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING AND SKIES WILL BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NW WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WITH 30 PERCENT CONFINED TO THE LOWER ACADIANA AREA. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LVL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT TODAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF MOVES INTO MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LOW/TUTT LOW MOVES INTO MEXICO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LOCALLY.
BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARMING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN WYO AND DOWN INTO NERN UT AND NWRN CO. WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
NEAR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDED SW FROM THESE AREAS INTO THE CNTRL GULF. THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD NW AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE W ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONV IS FIRING IN A BROAD INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE MEXICO COASTLINE TODAY. AS THIS OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONV PUSHES FURTHER NORTH EXPECT SOME OF THE CONV TO DIE OFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH OF TROUGH AXIS. LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT THIS TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO AS THE 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS WEST AND STABILIZES THE ATMS.
143 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY AND HOT PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND EXPECT NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
1149 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER. MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
132 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO ME WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRINGING A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VERMONT. AS THE AREA OF RAIN TRIES TO INFILTRATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PA/SRN NY THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT SO KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING AND SKIES WILL BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NW WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. CENTRL AND SOUTH SECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE STATE.
Most of the activity will be confined to the higher terrain however a few storms could venture out into the adjacent plains, especially if we can get a weak disturbance move over SE NM. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today than yesterday with highs generally ranging from the upper 80s in the higher terrain to low 90s elsewhere. Friday, could see a repeat of today with thunderstorms near the higher terrain and SE NM. Most forecast models show a retrograding subtropical ridge anchoring itself over the region by this weekend, suppressing rain chances across most locations as early as Friday.
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA. NEW YORK BORDER AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS TX TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO TOWARD TX. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEEP RIDGING PATTERN BY THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEARLY CUT OFF LOW OVER CA WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES REGION. INCREASING SLY BL FLOW ALONG WITH THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S. UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.