Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. High pressure will prevail in the mid levels, with the region situated under the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. The week will begin with high pressure as the dominant feature, both aloft and at the surface. As the week progresses a mid level trough will deepen to the north of the region as a cold front approaches at the surface. An uptick in shower/tstorm coverage is possible later in the week due to some extra upper level forcing and the surface cold front in the vicinity of the forecast area. Temperatures will generally be in the low 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s.
Gusty southerly flow will diminish a little this evening, but should persist at 10 to 20 mph through the overnight keeping overnight temps substantially warmer than last night, from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to low 70s overnight as warmer air continues to advect into the region. A cold front will bring thunderstorm chances to the area, primarily for west-central Minnesota and points south and east. A cold front will continue to move southeast across lakes country during the morning and afternoon hours Saturday. Otherwise, other areas behind the front should see partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures.
Warm across the interior again today with cooler conditions nearer the coast.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: With a low pressure trough descending on the region from southern Alberta, very hot temperatures and just enough instability are present to allow some scattered high-based thunderstorms to develop off the higher terrain for central Montana. Post-frontal air mass from the Canadian Rockies will spread much cooler air over our region over the next two days.
1158 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 As ridging builds in this afternoon and leaves tonight, expect mostly clear skies across the area, save for some diurnal cu (as seen on satellite imagery) and some areas of fog near Lake Superior in Alger and Luce counties this afternoon. With the diurnal cu field dying out, but some slight WAA happening aloft as the ridge leaves, expect temps tonight to dip into the 50s, with a few spots in the interior east (near Newberry) dipping below 50. While some precip could occur early Saturday in the far W out ahead of the boundary, the higher chances for the bulk of the land area appears to hold off until later on Saturday into Saturday night.
These locations are where we see the lowest values of condensation pressure deficits. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area late week into the weekend.
Weak upper level ridging continues to nose into the region.
Low temperatures overnight will be in the low 70s. However, changes may be coming as model agreement on the development of a deeper trough over the Great Lakes region has solidified over the past few days. Granted, take this with a grain of salt given how far out this is, but a nice and deep cold front over the eastern CONUS would be greatly appreciated.
Tonight Through Saturday Increased cloud and rain coverage have kept temperatures a little cooler today, especially across northern AR. We will see a warmup through the rest of the day however, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across the north and east, into the lower to mid 90s across the west and south. Friday afternoon highs will warm to the lower to mid 90s across the state.
Scattered showers are still possible early Friday morning with the close proximity to a trough, though thunderstorm coverage should become isolated. 8 inches), a high freezing level, and saturated ground from showers/storms over the last 24 hours, flash flooding will once again pose a threat. By early Saturday the trough axis (mentioned above) will likely advance just east of Pittsburgh, scattered showers and storms appear promising in the Laurel Highlands and south of I-70 throughout the day.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Convection across the northern and northwestern zones is finally waning after a several hr period of unsettled weather transpired thanks to weak impulses rotating around our SW US ridge. Lows by the morning will run mild with 70s encompassing most of the forecast area with some 60s delegated to the usual "cooler" spots like the Marfa Plateau and mountains. With a persistent mid-level pattern thanks to our 500mb high, any impulses that rotate around the eastern flank of the ridge will present a better opportunity for convective concerns, leading to the NW areas being the benefactor of potential. As a result of the lower heights, we'll see temperatures drop about 3-5F areawide compared to Friday with more 90s instead of the triple-digits that have been common last few days.
Then tonight, skies clear, with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 70s. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s. Throughout the short term we'll have ridging sliding off to the west as an approaching easterly wave moves in from the east. Otherwise, expect highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
249 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) Another day of excessive heat is in store due to the upper level ridge remaining across the area.
Bermuda high pressure will dominate the weather at the surface producing near normal temperatures. Despite the presence of strong ridging, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected each day during the afternoon. A pattern change is possible by mid-week as a trough develops over the Great Lakes region. Surface and upper level ridging will strengthen over the forecast area today. Forcing will be limited with ridging in place over the area with isolated showers and storms generally focused along the sea breeze where moisture will increase into the afternoon with onshore flow. Tonight some low clouds and fog may develop with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 70s.
While global models keep some shower activity around through the morning, capping will start to impede any development soon after sunrise as a warmer nose of air advects in between 12z and 15z, fully settling in by 18z. This is when low pressure and an associated front will move into central SD. Behind the front, expect cooler temperatures and lingering precipitation into Saturday.
930 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Morning TBW sounding, satellite and radar imagery showing classic SE flow pattern as Bermuda high pressure ridge axis holds well to the N from the Carolinas into N GA/AL. Meanwhile, high pressure continues to dominate over the Peninsula keeping east to southeasterly flow through the period. Afternoon highs stay in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Otherwise, rest of forecast looks to be on track, with lows still expected to drop into the low to mid 40s.
As far as precipitation type, confidence is medium to high that precipitation will remain all rain as low temperatures are not expected to drop or even really approach freezing. A strong closed Low will drop southeast out of Canada into the Upper Midwest. As the low drops southeast it will bring strong sfc winds out of the northwest.
1119 PM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 High pressure continues to be southeast of Arkansas. Our next system remains queued up to the west with the parent upper trough currently traversing the Great Basin. This feature will cross the Rockies tonight into early Wednesday with the trough progged to deepen and assume a negative tilt over the central Plains by late Wednesday. A stalled frontal boundary currently over Oklahoma will finally push east tomorrow in response to the ejecting upper trough. By Thursday evening, precip will be east of the Mississippi River with a seasonable shot of cooler air moving in late week.
Overnight temperatures ranged from the lower 50s to the lower 60s, as a warm front was analyzed from roughly Truman Lake to West Plains at 08z. This feature will be accompanied with a cold front that will force thunderstorms to erupt across the Kansas Flint Hills on down toward Oklahoma City.
Dry conditions and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend as broad high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. High clouds were continued to stream across the rest of the region behind the trough pulling away across the Four Corners and Rockies. The broad ridge over the eastern Pacific will slowly make its way inland the rest of the week. The mid level trough axis had just about cleared our CWA, with fast west to northwest flow aloft pushing mid and high level clouds overhead.
High pressure will continue to control the weather over the southeast U. A cold front will move into western Arkansas tonight and approach the Mid-South by Thursday morning. The cold front will move quickly through the Mid-South on Thursday bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s. The cold front will be east of the Mid-South by Thursday night.
Southeast to southerly winds will remain overnight, shifting from the northwest and gusting to 25-30KTS by 18Z as a cold front moves through the area. An upper trough will move and deepen from over the Rocky Mountains to the plains states on Wednesday. The base of the upper trough will move over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A Pacific front will move into the area on Wednesday as the trough passes overhead.
The next deepening upper trough will then arrive Thur morning. Main cold front will advect through the region Thur via a potent backside clipper system, supporting strong gusty NW winds.
The upper pattern is defined by a trough moving through the Intermountain West and an amplifying ridge developing off the coast of California and the Baja Peninsula. The eastern periphery of the upper ridge will then nudge slowly east the next several days, resulting in a gradual warmup to above climatological normals into the weekend.
A lee trough will develop across the Panhandle, resulting in a tightening surface pressure gradient across the forecast area. An upper level trough will swing across the Great Plains this afternoon, sending a cold front into the Big Country late this afternoon, and through the rest of the area by late this evening or early Thursday morning. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Subtle veering through the lower levels is transporting scattered to broken thin stratocumulus westward across the Keys. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned surface through lower level anticyclone will slip a bit further eastwards, becoming centered near the Atlantic coast. Expect overnight lows ranging near 70 with dew points easing upwards a degree or two but remain into the lower to mid 60s. High pressure centered over the far southeastern United States will maintain gentle to moderate mostly northeasterly breezes across Keys waters.
Surface and upper level high pressure ridging maintains a strong hold on the Quad State weather through Wednesday. Rain will reach our far western counties as early as 6z Thursday, rapidly spreading east ahead of an approaching surface cold front.
Then, rain moves in and winds pick up along a cold front.
A strong low pressure system will bring a band of rain through the area on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Colder air aloft associated with the upper trough will cause mid and upper level atmospheric instability leading to high clouds and possibly some virga over the area this morning. Below freezing temperatures are likely in parts of the southwest Panhandle and northwest South Plains. A broad 1020 mb surface anticyclone will move eastward across the Red River Valley on Thursday with surface winds veering to the south and southwest across the CWA, albeit light in magnitude. The High Plains region will remain situated beneath the southwestern periphery of an amplifying, negatively- tilted trough pivoting over the eastern U.
An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.
Across northeast Kansas, another seasonably warm afternoon is in place, despite yesterday's weak cold front moving through and south of the area. As this occurs, low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies, eventually lifting northeast and driving a cold front eastward. Southerly flow ahead of the low will bring our previous cold front back north as a warm front, with moisture increasing from south to north. A few scattered showers may develop tomorrow morning as isentropic ascent occurs along the warm front. The better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon/evening as the cold front sweeps east through the area. If the lower instability solutions pan out, a widespread rainfall would be the only notable impact. Our upper trough will continue to amplify into a deep upper low over the eastern CONUS.
No precipitation was observed and the low clouds were still patchy and mostly offshore at 8:30 PM PST. The lower clouds should thicken west of the mountains overnight, then dissipate quickly tomorrow. The upper level low will quickly move east, allowing for a ridge of high pressure to set up over the US West Coast.
Main challenge remains precip trends ahead of the significant upper trof which will move across the Plains on Wednesday. The emerging western conus upper trof will move over the high Plains tonight as low level moisture begins to increase into and over the stalled front as it begins to move northward across southern Kansas. Better moisture transport will lead to modest instability by the afternoon for locations along and just east of the Kansas turnpike ahead of the cold front moving across central Kansas. Otherwise, the trend for the latter portion of the week will be for a much cooler and drier regime as a deep closed low evolves from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes.
This will keep daytime temperatures a few degrees cooler, but still above normal.
An upper level trough axis will finish passing over the area this evening, bringing a end to most of the precipitation. Before that happens, however, a weak cold front will enter eastern Oregon this evening and move through southwest Idaho overnight. Wednesday will be dry, but a warm front will spread precipitation over the area Wed night and Thursday. Liquid precip amounts are expected to be generally light, with 60-hour totals up to a third of an inch in the mountains and less than a tenth in the lower elevations.
Prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will barely begin to pull moisture into south central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front. With slightly warmer air being drawn into south central and southwest Kansas within prevailing southeasterlies, not to mention gradually rising surface dewpoints by daybreak, expect lows tonight generally down into the 40s(F). A cold frontal passage by early afternoon will limit climbing temperatures Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs up into the 50s(F) for much of the area with the lower 60s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas.
Thursday By Thursday, a progressive upper level pattern will feature the propagation of a modestly pronounced 500 hPa trough towards the FL peninsula. Cooler temperatures aloft and slightly steeper lapse rates could allow for a few stronger thunderstorms to materialize, however abundant cloud should limit CAPE values and thus reduce widespread strong thunderstorm coverage.
Upper level flow will shift to the northwest around sunrise as the trough shifts east of the Divide with drier air gradually working into the western half of the forecast area. Elsewhere, dry conditions will persist with near to slightly below normal temperatures as a ridge of high pressure begins to amplify over the Desert Southwest.
Colder air aloft associated with the upper trough will cause mid and upper level atmospheric instability leading to high clouds and possibly some virga over the area this morning. Below freezing temperatures are likely in parts of the southwest Panhandle and northwest South Plains. A broad 1020 mb surface anticyclone will move eastward across the Red River Valley on Thursday with surface winds veering to the south and southwest across the CWA, albeit light in magnitude. The High Plains region will remain situated beneath the southwestern periphery of an amplifying, negatively-tilted trough pivoting over the eastern U.
Today through Thursday afternoon The latest system has moved east of the area, leaving northern Nevada in upper northwest flow in response to a ridge building in the eastern Pacific. There will be a few showers near the Idaho border riding over the ridge at times through Thursday, but otherwise dry conditions are expected, though some clouds will be sticking around.
323 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 An expansive, negatively tilted trough is in place across the western CONUS. This in turn will shunt the warm front currently draped across the I-70 corridor north, establishing low level return flow across the region. This warm, moist advection may be enough to spark a few showers this afternoon, but the best precipitation chances will not arrive until the trough and associated cold front move through the region. Tomorrow, brisk west-northwesterly flow behind the front will usher notably cooler and drier air into the region. BSH A closed upper low will drop into the north central CONUS on Thursday, amplifying the upper trough while significantly slowing its eastward progress.
Though this trough is expected to quickly sweep through our area Thursday, it will be accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery shows plenty of mid and high clouds spilling into the northern half of the forecast area through the building ridge along the West Coast. Precipitation will end by this evening as the warm front weakens and lifts north. Strong ridge moves over the area Thursday into the weekend.
320 AM MST Wed Nov 10 2021 Winds switched over to the northwest overnight behind a cold front with scattered areas of light or fast moving rain/snow showers moving over the forecast area. Some of this will linger early today, mainly over the higher terrain along the MT/WY border before all but ending by midday. There could be a few slick spots early this morning, especially on bridges and overpasses, particularly in Sheridan County, but otherwise impacts should be minimal. The associated upper low will have moved into southern Saskatchewan today. Thursday, the upper low will drop into the Dakotas and deepen. As the upper low shifts eastward Thursday night winds will decrease.
Generally cooler conditions are expected today with gusty westerly winds behind a cold frontal passage early this morning. After a few cooler days on Wednesday and Thursday, expect warmer temperatures over the weekend, with a chance for a passing rain or snow shower. Cold front has crossed north-central and southwest Montana this morning with only residual snow falling across the mountains and western and northwestern slopes.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a southwesterly stream of cirrus sliding to the east as an upper level ridge axis translates eastward. Additional cooling is possible as early morning temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s. Underneath the ridging, high temperatures today are expected to reach the mid 70s, although some areas may reach the upper 70s if debris cirrus from anticipated convection in the Southern Plains does not move in until this evening. With the increasing pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front, moderate southerly gradient winds develop Thursday with gusts approaching 30 mph in the afternoon. While there may be isolated thunderstorms embedded in the rain, the earlier cold front timing will limit surface heating and prevent any stronger storms from developing.
327 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Unsettled weather looks to return to the region today as an upper level trough digs eastward across the Northern Plains. Temperatures during this time will also be a touch cooler than yesterday, as cloud cover limits highs into the upper 40s to low 50s. Given that cloud cover will also be on the downward trend, have overnight lows falling into the low to mid 30s.
532 AM EST Wed Nov 10 2021 Dry weather should continue today under building high pressure. Rain returns tonight with a crossing cold front.
539 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 An expansive, negatively tilted trough is in place across the western CONUS. This in turn will shunt the warm front currently draped across the I-70 corridor north, establishing low level return flow across the region. This warm, moist advection may be enough to spark a few showers this afternoon, but the best precipitation chances will not arrive until the trough and associated cold front move through the region. Tomorrow, brisk west-northwesterly flow behind the front will usher notably cooler and drier air into the region. BSH A closed upper low will drop into the north central CONUS on Thursday, amplifying the upper trough while significantly slowing its eastward progress.
Dry conditions and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend as broad high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest.
A cold front will move through the OK and TX Panhandles this morning into early afternoon with gusty north winds in its wake. The corresponding cold front will track across the area this morning into early this afternoon with breezy north winds in its wake. Benign weather along with cooler temperatures is anticipated tonight through Thursday night.
355 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 An upper level trough is still on track to move through western and north central Nebraska today, bringing light rain to some areas. The atmosphere is well saturated from 850 through 300 mb, and forecast soundings show there should be decent lift in the low to mid levels coinciding with the trough passage. Although rainfall is possible across the forecast area along the trough, it appears that north central Nebraska will have the greatest rainfall totals since that should be the location of greatest lift and moisture. The trough will exit the area to the east this afternoon and rain will taper off at that time. Winds will be come gusty out of the northwest behind the trough. A deep closed low will move south from Saskatchewan into the upper Midwest during the day.
High clouds will increase during the day in advance of a cold front. By 12Z on Thursday the cold front will be approaching the Tennessee River and will have lower CIGs and showers associated with it.
The satellite, radar, and models were showing a very impressive looking upper level low pressure trough out to our west this morning. A strong jet was diving in from the west coast on the backside of this trough. This will serve to intensify this low pressure trough as it moves into the northern plains today and tonight. In advance of this trough today and the associated surface cold front, we will see increasing coverage of rain across mainly our eastern cwa as the lift intensifies. The models and ensembles all show the upper level low pressure trough closing off over the northern plains tonight and intensifying into Thursday.
The corresponding cold front will track across the area this morning into early this afternoon with breezy north winds in its wake. Benign weather along with cooler temperatures is anticipated tonight through Thursday night.
High pressure just to the west of the NR will result in a northwesterly flow Thursday. Precip will start off as snow early in the morning then become a mix of rain/snow and eventually all rain as with a warmer air mass nosing its way into the region late Thursday increasing snow levels to 6500 feet across central Idaho.