Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
221 PM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Today-Tonight: A broad upper level low. A potent small amplitude wave therein, having already rounded the base of the upper low. evolving into a broad upper low over the 4-Corners and northern Rockies (Thu night). and a strengthening southerly breeze as the MSLP/H85 height gradient begin tightening on the eastern periphery of a developing lee cyclone in east/southeast CO. The evolution of troughing aloft over the Rockies becomes murky (at best) Fri-Fri night. lending considerable uncertainty to the evolution of the associated cyclone in the lee of the Rockies.
340 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 An area of low pressure was approaching from the southwest, bringing moisture into the region. 75 inches are expected, with the higher amounts east of Highway 65.
217 PM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Showers and possibly thunderstorms for Thursday and Thursday night with a cold front.
1136 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Upper lows were located over WI and south of the Four Corners, with a weak short wave trough from the central Dakotas to eastern UT. The regional surface analysis showed a trough draped from west- central MT through central WY and northwest CO.
1013 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Rain has been mixing back into the snow in west-central Minnesota this morning as temperatures slowly climb above freezing. However, with the temperatures falling a few degrees cooler than expected, some isolated slippery conditions may form. Did trend toward a warmer consshort solution as the NBM was one of the cooler solutions.
1155 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Moisture wrapping around the low cycling across the AZ/NM border is evident via satellite imagery. As the low lifts northeast this afternoon, showers will become more scattered in nature. Pockets of the southern and central mountains may see brief periods of heavy snow in these showers, though higher amounts remain localized to the highest peaks. Flow quickly shifts to the southwest by Thursday morning as the next Pacific trough digs into the Great Basin. Similar to the past few systems, mild temperatures paired with the high sun angle will keep roads mostly wet throughout the day.
A few light showers in the Sierra Nevada are possible by tomorrow afternoon along with cooler temperatures for the entire forecast area.
This will be in advance of a cold front that is expected to traverse the region beginning overnight Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to paint a warm and breezy to windy end of the week as upper ridging and tightening pressure gradient develop across the northern plains.
157 PM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Current surface map places narrow axis of high pressure across the central Dakotas. Upper trof digging across the western CONUS Thursday will promote low level warm advection.
1126 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 H5 trough continues to move across the Four Corners region, with weak ridging trying to build across Wyoming this morning. The next trough drops southward across the northern Rockies, clipping the western portions of the state tonight into Thursday.
256 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 A large upper trough was spread across Arizona and New Mexico early today with high clouds spreading northeast into the central Plains. The upper trough makes steady northeast progress tonight into Thursday, reaching the mid-Mississippi Valley by evening. Weak surface ridging will be in place much of the night though high cloud should steadily increase through the night.
/issued 908 AM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ Dry stable conditions under high pressure over the region will support a pleasant dry day with ample sunshine across the entire forecast area with warming temperatures expected. Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with light southeast to south winds with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon. Despite the low humidity and elevated ERC values, light winds will preclude Red Flag conditions, with similar conditions expected through the remainder of the week.
While the lowest RH (favored west of the Missouri River) and strongest winds (favored east of the Missouri River) may not completely overlap, there is enough potential to message the possibility of near critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon and early evening, mainly focused on southwest and south central North Dakota. The best chances for any precipitation are across northern North Dakota near the center of the mid-level trough.
1018 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 This morning's warm front is now evident on radar, among other observation systems, as it approaches the I-20 corridor. /issued 655 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ For the 24/12Z TAF period, low stratus continues to slowly lift back northward along a retreating warm front extending from deep East Texas across North Louisiana and extreme Southern Arkansas. Otherwise, look for scattered showers and thunderstorms to gradually spread northward by later on this afternoon into this evening with the warm front lifting north of the region.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Multiple rounds of severe weather are set to impact portions of the Ark-La-Tex in the next 24 hours as a warm front continues to shift northward this afternoon. Large hail is expected to be the most predominant severe weather threat tonight, however, tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially if any storms can become more surface-based along the warm frontal boundary. At the 500mb level, the position of the trough and its approach from the southwest, instead of from the northwest, displaces the most ideal inflow and instability for severe weather to our east.
Only scattered light rain and snow showers so far but they will increase later tonight and become continuous light rain and snow by morning, as the upper trough comes in from the north.
538 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 The upper low that brought over an inch of rain to many portions of the region, continues to move through Wisconsin early this afternoon. Drier air is advecting south behind this upper low, assisting in eroding the stratus in the local area. Temperatures will fall just below freezing in most areas. Winds will remain light, and this may limit the rise of temperatures into the lower 50s.
1000 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Radar showing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms lifting northward through the region this evening in conjunction with a warm frontal boundary also retreating back to the north. Expecting something of a relative lull overnight, with PoPs increasing closer to daybreak ahead of a cold front advancing from the west. Behind the boundary winds will become west to west northwest brining in drier air and clearing out of the low clouds and showers. Then a low pressure moves to the north of the forecast area a cold front will swing through the area tomorrow bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
A weather system will continue to bring cooler temperatures, drying out this evening.
Will still see some snow, rain mixed with snow, or rain showers yet this evening as the area of low pressure departs. The low pressure system delivering our current precipitation continues to slide northeastward, and was located in NW WI as of this AFD publication. In the last hour or so we have observed a rapid shift to snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior with some roads in the higher elevations of the Sawtooths accumulating slush and snow. At this time, I have leaned into this snowier solution and increased snow amounts over the higher terrain of Douglas and Bayfield county for a final total of 1-3 inches in that area.
Best SBCAPE remains just south of the Red River, although the warm front/higher dewpoints have recently nudged a bit farther north into far southeast OK.
A large upper trough was spread across Arizona and New Mexico early today with high clouds spreading northeast into the central Plains. The upper trough makes steady northeast progress tonight into Thursday, reaching the mid-Mississippi Valley by evening. Weak surface ridging will be in place much of the night though high cloud should steadily increase through the night.
The low pressure system delivering our current precipitation continues to slide northeastward, and was located in NW WI as of this AFD publication. In the last hour or so we have observed a rapid shift to snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior with some roads in the higher elevations of the Sawtooths accumulating slush and snow. At this time, I have leaned into this snowier solution and increased snow amounts over the higher terrain of Douglas and Bayfield county for a final total of 1-3 inches in that area.
Taking a look at the surface weather map we have a ridge of high pressure set up across he western half of the forecast area, and an exiting low over northern WI/upper MI. At 500mb a large trough was set up across interior portions of western and central U. Embedded within this large trough is several smaller scale features, with brief ridging over our area tonight before southwesterly flow sets up through Thursday night. Surface winds will be on the increase again Thursday as the high exits across MN, and we stay in between that and the nearing trough from eastern MT/northeastern WY and far western SD.
652 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Looking at the lower dewpoints apparent over northeast ND and far northwestern MN, ranging through the teens, am expecting overnight low temperatures to drop a tad lower than previously forecast, or down to around 20F north and west from Grand Forks. This will be in advance of a cold front that is expected to traverse the region beginning overnight Thursday.
Behind the boundary winds will become west to west northwest brining in drier air and clearing out of the low clouds and showers. Then a low pressure moves to the north of the forecast area a cold front will swing through the area tomorrow bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
/issued 244 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ Water vapor showing the advertised closed low moving through central NM this afternoon, with continued precip across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. The upper level low will weaken and open as it continues to push NE overnight. As the base of the upper low moves across the CWA good upper level dynamics along with decent mid and lower level moisture will increase precipitation chances across the central South Plains and Rolling Plains this evening. falls across the central South Plains overnight and temperatures fall to near and just below freezing a snow flurry or two could mix in. Tomorrow, in the wake of the upper trough upper level ridging builds over the region with westerly winds. This will return dry and warmer conditions the area with highs in the 60s area wide.
627 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 An area of low pressure was approaching from the southwest, bringing moisture into the region. 75 inches are expected, with the higher amounts east of Highway 65.
High pressure will remain in place through the upcoming weekend with southerly winds, breezy at times and seas generally 2-3 ft or less along with an afternoon sea breeze along the coast. An increasingly humid air mass moving over the cooler waters may lead to some sea fog developing during the next few days.
A warm front located just north of the mentioned counties will likely be the main driver for thunderstorm development over the next several hours. An upper level trough is moving across AZ/NM this afternoon. Skies are clearing from west to east and the higher temperatures are where skies are clear. the upper trough will progress to the northeast tonight. The southern half of the CWA may miss out as the upper trough moves toward the northeast and the forcing for convection may not reach that far south.
Expect temperatures to be in the low to mid 20s over the plains, the teens to low 20s over the mountains valleys, and the single digits to the teens over the mountains, depending on the elevations. Fog may push a little bit further south, but westerly flow over the lower Arkansas River Valley should keep fog from developing there. The synoptic pattern tomorrow will be slight ridging throughout the day, transitioning to southwesterly flow in response to an encroaching trough. By midday, as the the next trough reaches southern Colorado, snowfall rates will begin increasing over the Continental Divide.
442 PM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Current surface map places narrow axis of high pressure across the central Dakotas. Upper trof digging across the western CONUS Thursday will promote low level warm advection.
621 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Taking a look at the surface weather map we have a ridge of high pressure set up across he western half of the forecast area, and an exiting low over northern WI/upper MI. At 500mb a large trough was set up across interior portions of western and central U. Embedded within this large trough is several smaller scale features, with brief ridging over our area tonight before southwesterly flow sets up through Thursday night. Surface winds will be on the increase again Thursday as the high exits across MN, and we stay in between that and the nearing trough from eastern MT/northeastern WY and far western SD.
Fair weather will persist through today with the next cold front arriving on Thursday. This cold front will bring snow and rain showers along with gusty winds that could impact the morning commute. Drier and warmer conditions will return for the weekend.
703 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 (Issued 705 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021) Tonight: Gusty winds will continue this evening behind departing low pressure moving across Lake Superior into Canada.
Looking at the lower dewpoints apparent over northeast ND and far northwestern MN, ranging through the teens, am expecting overnight low temperatures to drop a tad lower than previously forecast, or down to around 20F north and west from Grand Forks. This will be in advance of a cold front that is expected to traverse the region beginning overnight Thursday.
632 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad longwave trough of low pressure across the CONUS. Within this broad trough, two closed H5 lows were noted. High pressure was noted over the western Caribbean with a secondary area of high pressure noted roughly 1200 miles off the coast of southwestern Oregon. At the surface, low pressure was located over western Wisconsin with a cold front extending south southeast into Indiana and western Kentucky. The upper level low, currently along the NM/AZ border will slide east then northeast into central Kansas as an open wave through 12z Thursday. At the same time, an upper level trough will dive south into the swrn CONUS. Thursday night, the upper level trough will begin to track into the four corners region.
Freshening breezes and dew points in the lower 70s should prevent temperatures from falling below forecast lows in the mid 70s. From synopsis: A large continental area of high pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean will build southwestward, resulting in gentle moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes tonight through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
Rain and snow showers over eastern Arizona begin to dissipate overnight, with some additional snow accumulations over the higher elevations.
Kavinsky (Issued 705 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021) Tonight: Gusty winds will continue this evening behind departing low pressure moving across Lake Superior into Canada.
18Z surface data has the cold front just west of the Mississippi in eastern Iowa. Scattered showers associated with the cold front will exit areas east of the Mississippi around sunset.
154 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Developing low pressure will bring showers, thunderstorms, and strong wind for today and into Friday.
1016 PM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Current surface map places narrow axis of high pressure across the central Dakotas. Upper trof digging across the western CONUS Thursday will promote low level warm advection. Upper trof splits Friday as it moves into the plains, with slow moving cold front.
Tonight-Friday: The first in a series of mid/upper troughs will pass along and north of the International Border late tonight through Friday, with WAA and some increases in instability supporting rain showers.
The PacNW is located on the east side of a longwave ridge and under a strong northerly flow aloft. On Thursday night this system will pass to the east with a northerly flow behind it between that departing trough and a developing and amplifying upper ridge off the coast in the NE Pacific.
Behind the boundary winds will become west to west northwest brining in drier air and clearing out of the low clouds and showers. /issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ Radar showing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms lifting northward through the region this evening in conjunction with a warm frontal boundary also retreating back to the north. Expecting something of a relative lull overnight, with PoPs increasing closer to daybreak ahead of a cold front advancing from the west. Then a low pressure moves to the north of the forecast area a cold front will swing through the area tomorrow bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Upper lvl trough which brought precipitation to portions of the region will move out by the late morning hours. Friday will be warm as a result of a strong low lvl thermal ridge that will build over the area with excellent insolation.
432 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 High pressure will be in place at the surface and aloft through the weekend. Temps near the coast will remain cooler in the mid 80s as winds turn to the SW/W each afternoon.
331 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Dry westerly winds are expected to prevail today as an upper trough moves across aloft. Cooler temperatures aloft associated with the trough will keep afternoon highs in the 60s. Modest H50 height rises Friday out ahead of a deepening trough across the southwest CONUS will help lift temperatures into the 70s for most of us on the Caprock, to around 80 in the Rolling Plains.
This trough will bring scattered light showers mainly to eastern KS this morning through early afternoon.
Have kept the High Wind Watch unchanged. Primary focus for this period has been the Thursday night/Friday morning winds as the low pressure charges through the region. Have kept the High Wind Watch in effect and expect that wind advisories may be needed for much of the area.
310 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west this morning, with enough of a pressure gradient between the two systems to bring breezy conditions to the area today. The boundary associated with the low pressure system will reach the western Dakotas by this evening, then will slowly slide eastward to become situated over the eastern Dakotas by late Friday afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s, with highs on Friday again mainly in the 50s.
On Friday a weak cold front will gradually move through the region along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
and Friday Quiet weather is expected today as weak ridging tracks through the western Great Lakes region. A strong low pressure system developing across the southern Plains will track northeast towards southern Illinois today, then continue through the southern Great Lakes tonight, and finally through the eastern Great Lakes on Friday. This system will likely have a sharp cutoff in precipitation, as indicated by the models, which will make placement of POPs problematic as a slight shift in the track of the low will impact precipitation amounts by a large amount. Model soundings show an elevated warm layer, which puts snow, sleet, and freezing rain in play.
Midlevel clouds are beginning to move over western Wyoming as the weak ridging gives way to an approaching trough. The trough will slide south overnight and Thursday, with the main center of low pressure staying to our west. These showers will continue through Thursday night and into Friday as the low stalls and trends eastward. Only expecting an inch or two in the lower elevations of the west, with little to no accumulations in eastern basins through Thursday night.
352 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Developing low pressure will bring showers, thunderstorms, and strong wind for today and into Friday.
1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 An area of low pressure was approaching from the southwest, bringing moisture into the region. 75 inches are expected, with the higher amounts east of Highway 65. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning will only cool into the low 40s.
1027 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 The upper low that brought over an inch of rain to many portions of the region, continues to move through Wisconsin early this afternoon. Drier air is advecting south behind this upper low, assisting in eroding the stratus in the local area. Temperatures will fall just below freezing in most areas. Winds will remain light, and this may limit the rise of temperatures into the lower 50s.
High temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as there should be a bit more sunshine today.
Lows tonight in northeast Nebraska in the lower 30s, and in the mid to upper 30s for other areas. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid 50s. We'll have to watch for at least a chance of a few stronger storms near the KS border as that area could be just north of a weak east/west warm frontal zone.
1255 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Developing low pressure will bring showers, thunderstorms, and strong wind for today and into Friday.
Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure extends from the plains of eastern Nebraska southwest into the northern Texas Panhandle. Under decreasing cloud cover by this afternoon, look for the highs generally up into the 50s(F) with near 60F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite as cool tonight as low level southerlies develop ahead of a deepening lee side trough in eastern Colorado, drawing slightly warmer air into western Kansas.
A warm front will spread northward through the mid/late morning hours with shra and possibly some tsra at CHA/TYS before noon with winds increasing out of the south amidst low VFR/MVFR cigs. Conditions will become increasingly active in the afternoon/evening hours as a cold front approaches from the west with thunderstorms becoming strong/severe at CHA first, then eventually TYS and TRI into the late evening hours. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 55 76 54 75 / 90 90 10 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 73 50 70 / 80 90 10 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 73 54 73 49 70 / 90 90 10 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 54 71 45 72 / 70 90 10 10 50 NC.
Rain and snow showers over eastern Arizona will come to an end after midnight, with some additional snow accumulations over the higher elevations. Low pressure will continue it's slow eastward progress overnight. As the associated trough begins to dig into the region, precipitation chances increase from northwest to southeast Thursday evening and into Friday night. The greatest snow accumulations look to be Thursday night over the Kaibab Plateau, with lighter amounts over the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim.
Surface pressure falls ahead of the disturbance will increase the low level gradients, with CAG-CPR 700mb near 40 meters. It will be slightly milder Thursday ahead of the Pacific cold front with highs in the 40s and low 50s, cooling into the upper 30s and 40s behind the front Friday. Showers will end Friday night as the upper level trough continues its trek to the east, with a ridge of high pressure building across the CWA this weekend.
/NEW/ /Through Tonight/ A cold front currently extends along a Bonham to DFW to Hamilton line, with the strongest thunderstorms along and south of the boundary.
Maybe some local 1-2 inch snow amounts over the higher elevations will be possible. Trough passage will occur fairly early today. Cooler today then warmer Friday with highs warming in the valley into mostly the mid 70s.
(Today and tonight) As of 08Z, the upper trough was positioned west of our area, with the axis extending from the western TX panhandle to Chihuahua. As this low pressure system departs the region, mid-level heights rise from SW to NE by end of the day and winds back more west-northwest by this afternoon.