Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is in response to an approaching longwave trough axis and associated surface warm front. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this afternoon along and near the warm front as significant warm air advection contributes to lift alongside modest diurnal destabilization. As the trough nears tonight, a cold front will be pushed through the area from north to south. Similar threats will exist as during the night tonight, with the highest probability for a severe storm occuring coincident with maximum diurnal boundary layer heating during the afternoon and early evening. Highs Wednesday will be cool in the north behind the cold front, low to middle 60s F.
High pressure will continue to build across the region through midweek and remain in place heading into the upcoming weekend, resulting in a substantial warming trend.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to move over the state from the west on Wednesday with light winds, abundant sunshine, and high temperatures varying from near normal to as much as 20 degrees below normal.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
1105 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front pushed through the area this morning ushering in dry cool air and strong NW winds. Northwest flow continues to usher in cool air as low temperatures tonight dip below freezing for many areas north of the MO River.
Deep upper trof located over the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains.
Upper level ridge strengthens over Today and Thu. Upper level ridge axis shifts to the east of the forecast area on Fri, allowing possibly some cloudiness, but this should be offset by more southerly air flow. Wind, as usual under high pressure, will not be a factor.
(Today and tonight) A cold front had moved south of I-10 early this morning. as moist air rose over cooler air at the surface. as the cooler and drier air moves in from the north and deepens. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 60s. A few low lying or valley areas may briefly dip to the freezing mark or see light frost.
Conds vary from VFR over Nrn terminals behind the front, to IFR/LIFR over Cntrl/Srn sites where TSRA/SHRA has developed along and ahead of the cold front. A cold front will approach the state Wednesday afternoon clearing terminals from NW to SE.
Benign weather pattern for the short term forecast under the influence of upper level ridging across the Rockies and high plains.
Seasonable temperatures will occur Wednesday before temperatures increase through the rest of this week due to building high pressure. A passing dry trough has shifted winds from northwesterly earlier today to northeasterly this evening across northern Arizona. A tightened surface gradient behind the trough will produce northeasterly gusts from 15-30 mph tonight for some locations along and south of the Mogollon Rim. The trough over our area will gradually shift east as heights build in over the area on Wednesday. Surface winds will become northeasterly and remain breezy along and south of the high terrain overnight. This will keep overnight lows a bit warmer in those areas.
VFR and dry otherwise in westerly flow aloft trending to northwesterly behind a weak upper level trough crossing the northern and central plains. East to northeast winds will stay a bit increased through much of the period as another surge of cooler air comes in behind a departing upper level short wave trough this evening.
252 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Even with the progressive nature of the trough axis through the WFO PAH forecast area today,there will still be enough mid-level moisture to kick out a brief round of isolated to locally scattered light showers from late morning into the early afternoon today from west to east.
The cold front is now through Abilene and DFW and should move into AUS/DRT around 11z and into the San Antonio sites 1-2 hours later. Transition between zonal flow aloft to a more southwesterly flow has taken place today as South-Central Texas moves under the base of an upper level trough setting up over the Central CONUS. This timing will result in the high temperatures for Wednesday occurring during the few early morning hours before the front as much cooler air filters in behind it. A thin band of showers is depicted among the high resolution models for the FROPA, mostly over areas along and east of I-35. However, the lowest dewpoints don't settle into the region until after the wind speed maximum subsides. Wednesday night lows will run about 10 degrees cooler than climo norms.
Cold advection will continue through the afternoon which will keep daytime highs limited to the low to mid 30s. Winds will finally begin to diminish tonight as a sprawling area of high pressure becomes centered over the region.
Ceilings improve to mainly MVFR Wednesday morning as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
This will be attributed to the replacement of the western trough with a broad ridge.
Scattered to broken mid and high clouds and northerly winds should remain common across the CWA overnight tonight as an upper level trof axis moves into the region. with current drier air in the low levels have backed off on mentioning for most TAF site. Upper level trof axis is expected to push east through the CWA and exit during the afternoon hours. /Issued 801 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ Cold front stretches from SE Madison county to FSM to south of MLC, and continues steady progress to the southeast.
But the low-level airmass is quite dry so expect a lot of this precipitation to be virga. These clouds will move out today as the mid-level trough moves east away from the area.
257 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 It will be a noticeably cooler day today with afternoon temperatures only getting into the 30s to low 40s.
1034 PM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Slightly unstable northwest flow continues this afternoon behind the strong cold front from yesterday. Wednesday will see clearing skies and warmer temperatures as 700mb temps increase by about 8 to 10 C. Wednesday night will see the ridge axis centering on the Intermountain West from Utah into Idaho.
A period of broken cloud cover is then expected from late Wed morning through the afternoon as the upper trough passage occurs. Another cold front will then sweep south for the late afternoon and evening with greater momentum along the lakeshore. Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday with highs in the lower 40s and gusty northwest winds. Cronce (Issued 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021) Wednesday night through Tuesday: We will continue to cold advect Wednesday night as the upper low swings across the region.
1136 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening bringing a chance of rain to central Illinois through tonight.
A S to SW low-level jet will strengthen overnight into Wed morning in response to the approaching mid/upper trough axis and our CWA being near the right entrance of an associated 110-120 kt upper jet streak. Low level wind shear early this morning at KCHA and KTYS then southerly until late in the day or evening switching to North northwest as cold front passes.
Broad upper trough axis migrating east across the central CONUS this morning with upstream ridging entering the west coast as southwesterly flow carries mid level moisture and convection into the southeast region. Mid level clouds associated with the upper passing trough axis assist in providing some insulation in lows this morning for our east central KS areas where middle 30s are seen. Further north and west, temperatures continue to fall into the low 30s. Cool airmass in place amongst the midlevel clouds should bring similar readings from yesterday in the low to middle 50s. Mostly clear skies return this evening as high pressure centers overhead and winds calm. With the widespread freezing conditions, any sensitive vegetation should be covered or moved inside.
1232 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Tonight's cold frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures to the region. In fact, most areas will see high temperatures in the low to middle 60s for tomorrow afternoon.
1130 PM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Fair weather prevails through the week ahead, as temperatures trend warmer.
For the afternoon, pressure falls will take place ahead of the approaching cold front as a strong vort max pivots through the base of a larger trough.
344 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Cold front has cleared the forecast area with a band of strong mid level forcing yet to pass across the region. Ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight and sub freezing temps are expected for a portion of NE OK and NW AR.
350 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The cold front that moved though last night was well east of the area this morning with only some lingering light showers possible through early this morning. Though high pressure was making its way into the area and temperatures will be cooler today, the surface pressure gradient will be slow to weaken, likely holding off until this evening. As we head into the evening and the overnight hours, cold high pressure will move over the region with overnight temperatures falling into the 20s under clearing skies across the region.
310 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 500 mb trough exits the area to the east. The position of the high will keep winds northwest today but as the 500 mb trough and system continue to move out winds today will be considerably less as the core of 850 mb winds moves out as well. High pressure ridge axis to move over the area this evening and quickly moves east with south winds already developing over E ND by midnight.
255 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A low amplitude upper level low pressure trough sliding by north of the area this morning will be to the east later today. Temperatures around 8-10 degrees below normal are expected today and tonight, including lows tonight dropping near or just below freezing many areas on the Caprock. RMcQueen Tomorrow will be breezy as a surface lee trough sets up across the central US.
415 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to be the dominant feature controlling the weather conditions across the Florida Keys. 17 inches, which is near the daily mean for this time of the year, and certainly, one of the highest observed during the last 7 days. Currently, temperatures across the island communities are in the mid to upper 70s and dew point values in the low to mid 70s.
248 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Near freezing to below freezing temps were found once again this morning as cold air continued to move into the area behind a cold front. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the area as longwave trough moves across the area today. Winds will lessen from yesterday but still be noticeable Discussion: We stay mostly on the cyclonic side of the large trof moving through the area today through at least mid evening. There will be a lot of dry air to overcome in the low levels, so did not add straight rain/snow showers. With the lower wind speeds we don't see much of an elevated fire weather risk for today as well.
A warm front is south of I-40 and there have been several thunderstorms along and south of the boundary. In addition a trough/cold front is moving across the forecast area.
Winds weaken overnight before picking up after the forecast period ahead of the next cold front. As a cold front begins to progress southwards across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday night, the persistent ridge of high pressure that has dominated our synoptic flow over the last several days will remain in place during the overnight hours.
1043 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) The 19Z surface observations indicate the cold front was draped from Shawnee to Washington to Waurika with temperatures in the mid-50's over northwest OK, 60s over central OK, and low 70's over south/southeast portions of the CWA. With the upper trough approaching and the surface boundary present, there is a chance for thunderstorms over Atoka and Bryan Counties this evening (7-10PM time frame).
Cold front and wind shift to the NW/N will occur on Wednesday, roughly 13-15Z CLL, 16-18Z IAH and 18-20Z GLS. Isolated to widely scattered showers (developing along to just ahead of the warm front) will continue to lift and track off to the NE for the rest of this afternoon. The strong onshore flow that has been in place for much of today is expected to persist into tonight, and may not decrease until late overnight/very early tomorrow morning as the cold front begins its final approach into SE TX. And so with the el- evated winds, spotty drizzle and abundant low clouds, will keep with the ongoing trends of warmer than MOS low temperatures tonight. Not planning on major changes (from previous) with the timing of the cold front. Much cooler/drier tomorrow night.
In terms of severe weather potential, the better dynamics appears to be south of I-40 closer to the AL/TN border and our southwestern counties where some instability could creep in overnight behind the warm front. Heaviest showers will exit the area by mid- morning as our cold front will help move things out swiftly. A cold front has nosed its way into Middle Tennessee, with a band of showers with embedded thunderstorms having formed along and just ahead of the frontal boundary.
Temperatures will be cooler this afternoon, with highs sitting in the 60s everywhere north of the Rio Grande. A very broad upper level trough will move across the plains today, and ridging will begin to rebuild over the region as the trough moves eastward.
1256 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Showers are expected to develop tonight in advance of a cold front and will dissipate from west to east overnight.
Breezy conditions will accompany the arrival of the warmer air, which will result in some fire concerns as we close out the work week.
A dry Pacific front will continue to push through eastern New Mexico today, with daytime highs generally cooler than yesterday's readings across the Land of Enchantment in the wake of the front.
A secondary push of cooler air will make its way into the region today as the main upper trough passes through. This cool northwest flow will keep temperatures down a bit with most of the forecast area only seeing highs in the mid to upper 40s with perhaps the far southern forecast counties climbing into the lower 50s. With area plant nurseries starting to stock up, and reports of fruit trees starting to bud, there is concern that some vegetation will be impacted by the subfreezing temperatures. Due to this, a Freeze Warning has been issued for areas along and south of the Missouri River where there is some vegetation susceptible to freezing temperatures.
Northwesterly flow behind this trough will persist over the area throughout the day which should allow good mixing into the afternoon. Thursday: Increasing southwesterly low-level flow will quickly bring a warmer airmass into the region beginning Thursday as a large-scale pattern shift begins to take place.
There still may be a few sprinkles across southeast MO and southwest IL this morning until a positively tilted upper level trough currently extending from MN southwest into eastern CO shifts east of our area. Highs today will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal for the end of March. Relatively strong and gusty northwest winds will make it feel even cooler. Below normal temperatures will continue Thursday with northwesterly upper level flow as the upper level trough moves eastward through the OH Valley region.
/issued 255 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ A low amplitude upper level low pressure trough sliding by north of the area this morning will be to the east later today. Temperatures around 8-10 degrees below normal are expected today and tonight, including lows tonight dropping near or just below freezing many areas on the Caprock. RMcQueen Tomorrow will be breezy as a surface lee trough sets up across the central US.
Not as cold as yesterday but still cool with highs in the lower 30s northeast to upper 40s southwest. Currently, northwest flow aloft as a mid level trough continues to push east, centered from the Great Lakes region south/southwest through the Southern Plains. Upper level ridging across the west today will build east across the Rockies tonight. Ridge flattens later in the week with zonal flow aloft developing across the Northern Plains for the end of the work week through the upcoming weekend.
617 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Even with the progressive nature of the trough axis through the WFO PAH forecast area today,there will still be enough mid-level moisture to kick out a brief round of isolated to locally scattered light showers from late morning into the early afternoon today from west to east.
For today, northwesterly flow will continue aloft with 850mb temperatures ranging from -4C across south central SD to -12C across west central MN, and high pressure at the surface.
though with drier air in the low levels this precip will struggle to reach the surface. These clouds should begin clearing from west to east early this afternoon as an upper level trof axis pushes through the region. /Issued 344 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ Cold front has cleared the forecast area with a band of strong mid level forcing yet to pass across the region. Ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight and sub freezing temps are expected for a portion of NE OK and NW AR.
426 AM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Just a few clouds leaving the eastern border and clinging to the mountain peaks at this hour, and that's about all we'll have today as warmer and drier air aloft moves in. Our forecast highs look a little ambitious over the western part of the area, and we'll be putting a little energy into melting snow this afternoon in some places, so we trimmed back the highs just a little. There will be a little wind over the mountains and a bit of enhancement to the normal drainage winds tonight along with continued warming aloft setting the stage for a much warmer day Thursday. Northeast Colorado will be warm, dry, and mostly clear through the weekend under ridging aloft.
449 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Cold front moving through the area today will bring more showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Near freezing to below freezing temps were found once again this morning as cold air continued to move into the area behind a cold front. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the area as longwave trough moves across the area today. Winds will lessen from yesterday but still be noticeable Discussion: We stay mostly on the cyclonic side of the large trof moving through the area today through at least mid evening. There will be a lot of dry air to overcome in the low levels, so did not add straight rain/snow showers. With the lower wind speeds we don't see much of an elevated fire weather risk for today as well.
Cooler, but still mild this weekend. Upper level ridge will remain over NorCal the next few days bringing dry conditions, light winds and much above normal temperatures. High temperatures for Valley locations will be generally in the low 80's today, warming to the mid and upper 80's Thursday.
The cold front now moving into western KY and northwest TN at this hour will reach the eastern mountains by around 18Z. Cold air advection tonight with upslope flow will set the stage for snow showers before all the low level moisture moves out. By late evening the rain will change to snow in the highest elevations and after midnight lower elevations and northern plateau, northern valley and southwest Virginia. By around 6 AM the moisture will be moving out of the lower elevations of northeast Tennessee and northern plateau but continue across southwest Virginia and the eastern Tennessee mountains from the Smokies north.
307 AM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A upper trough axis reached from north of Lake Superior southwest through the central Great Plains and Four Corners. A upper ridge was parked off the Pacific Coast. The upper trough over the middle of the CONUS will progress east, while the upper ridge moves into the Intermountain West. The dry and warmer than normal weather pattern will continue into the weekend under the influence of a large scale ridge.
High pressure moves in tonight, leading to clear skies. This is due to the low levels drying out this afternoon. High pressure will build over the CWA late this afternoon and evening as a longwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. In addition, high temps tomorrow will increase to the low 40s, which is close to average for this time of year.
714 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A low pressure system will bring rain today, and then snow showers tonight and Thursday with much cooler air.
Cold advection will continue through the afternoon which will keep daytime highs limited to the low to mid 30s. Winds will finally begin to diminish tonight as a sprawling area of high pressure becomes centered over the region. Temperatures will begin to moderate Thursday as southerly flow increases across the region on the back side of departing high pressure, and upper level ridging builds into the Upper Midwest.
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Siouxland will spend one more day under the direct influence of a deep upper level trough that has brought a chilly Canadian air mass to the region. Clear skies again allow temperatures to drop to near 20, but a lack of moisture in the low levels should keep fog from forming. The large scale pattern changes on Thursday as a ridge begins building over the Plains.
A dry cold front Thursday evening will bring breezy winds. Today through Thursday night: A flat upper ridge will move over the region today for mostly clear skies and temperatures rebounding to near or slightly above seasonal normals. On Thursday the ridge moves east with southwest flow ahead of a weak cold front.
A warming trend will start taking shape today and continue through the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
644 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front had moved south of I-10 early this morning. as moist air rose over cooler air at the surface. as the cooler and drier air moves in from the north and deepens. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 60s. A few low lying or valley areas may briefly dip to the freezing mark or see light frost.
Today Through Thursday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across Srn AR as a cold front sweeps across the state. Aloft, an upper level trough will slide across the region later this morning and as this happens, broad forcing for ascent should trigger additional showers over much of AR. Upper ridging at the surface and aloft will build into the region in the wake of the frontal passage. As a result, issued a freeze warning for the Nrn two rows of counties in AR and a frost advisory for Van Buren, Cleburne, Independence, and Jackson counties where temperatures will approach or hover just above freezing. Similar conditions will be noted Thursday night as high pressure settles in over the top of AR.
651 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Siouxland will spend one more day under the direct influence of a deep upper level trough that has brought a chilly Canadian air mass to the region. Clear skies again allow temperatures to drop to near 20, but a lack of moisture in the low levels should keep fog from forming. The large scale pattern changes on Thursday as a ridge begins building over the Plains.
635 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The cold front that moved though last night was well east of the area this morning with only some lingering light showers possible through early this morning. Though high pressure was making its way into the area and temperatures will be cooler today, the surface pressure gradient will be slow to weaken, likely holding off until this evening. As we head into the evening and the overnight hours, cold high pressure will move over the region with overnight temperatures falling into the 20s under clearing skies across the region. High pressure will remain over the region on Thursday sliding slowly east as an upper level trough moves towards the Appalachians.