Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 PM MDT Sat Sep 4 2021 A ridge of high pressure is set to expand across the Great Basin over the next few days which will bring very dry conditions and well above normal temperatures to all of eastern Idaho. The ridge will continue to amplify through the workweek with temperatures running well above normal.
(This evening through Sunday) The main story for the short term will be monitoring the movement of the surface cold front and the possible development of showers and storms later this afternoon. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the cold front, with 70s and 80s currently behind the front. This cooler air and the cloud cover should help keep temperatures down through the evening into Sunday, with lows dropping down into the lower 60s.
Clearing skies have been moving quickly into northwest and now central Iowa the past few hours as high pressure approaches from the northwest, though a band of cumulus has developed back into the clear region. High temperatures on Sunday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The associated surface cold front is progged to cross the area through the afternoon, with additional scattered showers with its approach and passage.
A cold front has brought north northeast winds to all three sites with around 5 to 15 knot wind speeds. Today through Sunday night Upper trough across west Texas and the Panhandles today through tonight and Sunday morning will allow for scattered to numerous convection across the forecast area mainly this afternoon through Sunday morning. Drier in the lower portions this afternoon which indicate the possibility for gusty winds and heavy rainfall initially this afternoon and this evening before the convection transitions to mainly a heavy rainfall/hydro event overnight tonight. Upper trough shifts east away from the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A cold front will push slowly south from the Oklahoma Panhandle into the northern Texas Panhandle this morning. The cold front continues to push further south of the Panhandles tonight and Sunday.
The high begins to get pushed eastward Sunday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s east to the lower 80s west on Sunday.
High pressure and increased subsidence will continue through Sunday, eroding and elongating slowly to the east in the process. High pressure shifts eastward as the main upper-level trough slides across the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS.
224 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure over the region will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday. A warm front will bring showers and more cloud cover for Sunday.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the afternoon into this evening as the 500mb ridge across the south-central and southeast United States continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. Convection is not anticipated with high pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere in control. /issued 327 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure centered over Louisiana will remain the dominant force over the BRO CWFA during the period. Limited cloud cover, in addition to the presence of the mid-level ridge, will ensure well above normal temperatures for this time of year.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500mb ridge across Texas and Louisiana will move little tonight through Sunday.
The modest mid-level ridge pattern stretching from the Upper Gulf Coast into East Texas today gradually flattens through Sunday as troughing sharpens over the Midwest and a new ridge amplifies over the western CONUS.
1017 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure anchored over the Carolinas is governing the weather across the CWFA this morning, with light E/SE flow in place. A slow- moving cold front will approach the area to the NW through the day, but any cloud cover/convection associated with this feature should hold off until this time tomorrow. Upper ridging across the coastal Deep South should weaken tonight, as a trough axis extending southward from the western Hudson Bay to the northern High Plains moves to the SE. A reamplification of eastern CONUS troughing and the upper ridge rebuilding over the western states, will bring an increase in clouds across the region tonight.
Upper troughing is helping to advect upper moisture into the region. Closer to the surface, southerly flow ahead of the trough axis will provide an additional surge of moisture along with low level isentropic lift prompting the widespread rain. The boundary and upper trough will continue to bring precipitation across the region into the overnight hours. Temperatures today will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s but will warm into the low 80s tomorrow.
Some locations have held onto the lower 70s. Dry weather will continue this evening into tonight as the upper ridge remains in place. Elsewhere, highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
High pressure strengthens over Nevada with increasing temperatures as well. High pressure will continue to build over CA and NV with light winds and hot afternoon temperatures for early September through the holiday weekend.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to move south through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas overnight as the cold front slowly pushes into far southeast Oklahoma by Sunday morning.
Another disturbance associated with a weak cold front will pass across the area on Sunday. High pressure will build in for the early part of the week. Moisture will transport into the region on the low level jet. A cold front will move in behind the exiting mid level disturbance on Sunday. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 70s in the southeast (more clouds) to the upper 70s to near 80 in the northwest (more sun). Drier and cooler air will filter in overnight.
There is a weak trough and a MCV within the trough moving into Wyoming. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds forming over the higher terrain, and along the Platte River. Late this afternoon and tonight the upper level short wave trough and MCV will move over the eastern part of the forecast area. Sunday will be dry as the upper level ridge continues to build north over the Great Basin. This will also increase the WAA over the forecast area, causing highs to be warmer than today. This will also push the warm front east of the forecast area.
The area will remain under mid level cyclonic flow into Sunday before the building ridge to the west takes full charge control. The only chance for rain comes later on Labor Day as the ridge is flattened with the passing on a trough through southern Canada.
Overall overnight clear to partly cloudy and will keep the lows as forecast with 40s to low 50s. Cyclonic flow aloft around based of upper trough has supported diurnal shower and isolated thunderstorm development.
734 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure over the region will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A warm front will bring showers and more cloud cover late tonight into Sunday.
544 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Some convection will be possible through this TAF period as a cold front drops south through the state.
747 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday then slide into the Atlantic as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
719 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure over the region will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A warm front will bring showers and more cloud cover late tonight into Sunday.
Dry weather prevails through Sunday as high pressure aloft to our south expands northward.
346 PM MDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Main feature of interest on WV imagery this aftn is a potent vort max digging from the nrn Rockies onto the High Plains across MT/WY at this hour.
/issued 234 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021/ Good rain/storm chances, including a risk for locally excessive rainfall, and cooler temperatures are the themes in the short term. A cold front, lingering low-level boundaries, plenty of moisture, a weakness aloft and strong daytime heating will all work together to provide good storm chances this afternoon and evening. However, a secondary surge to the cold front is currently moving into the southern Texas Panhandle and it will make its way through the CWA through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Regardless, plenty of cloud cover (maybe even a little AM fog) will secure a cooler day Sunday after a mild night tonight.
1018 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Lead wave and attendant cold front exiting the area this evening, taking the widespread light rain and drizzle with it. Elongated low pressure stretches from Central Canada thru the Western Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains this afternoon. and literally nothing is happening upstream along and ahead of the cold front now making its way thru Wisconsin.
Do expect light rain/mist to continue through much of the night with the low levels still very saturated and as ceilings remain at around 500 ft. Lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s which may end up being a tad low unless dewpoints begin to fall faster than currently expected. Upper troughing is helping to advect upper moisture into the region. Closer to the surface, southerly flow ahead of the trough axis will provide an additional surge of moisture along with low level isentropic lift prompting the widespread rain. The boundary and upper trough will continue to bring precipitation across the region into the overnight hours. Temperatures today will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s but will warm into the low 80s tomorrow.
Look for a drying trend over the Labor Day weekend with only isolated showers and an occasional thunderstorm expected over the higher terrain of east-central Arizona.
Overnight low should bottom out in the low to mid 50s. Boxell (Issued 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Clouds will clear out this evening into tonight from northwest to southeast as a trough of low pressure departs. A weak trough and associated cold front will drop through on Sunday. Temps should be a few degrees below normal Sun night as clouds clear out and a cooler/drier airmass moves into the area.
344 PM MDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Forecast Discussion: 500 mb high pressure ridge is forecast to begin building over the area today and into Sunday morning and then begin to flatten Sunday afternoon as an approaching weather disturbance and cold from comes in from our west. As the weather system and cold front approach from the west winds are forecast to become breezy Sunday afternoon from the west at 15 to 20 mph.
528 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure over the region will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A warm front will bring showers and more cloud cover for Sunday.
938 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Cold front continues to push across the region this evening with a broken line of convection that currently extends from SE OK through WC AR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight along and north of a cold front pushing south across the area. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to move south through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas overnight as the cold front slowly pushes into far southeast Oklahoma by Sunday morning.
Strong high pressure bring hot and dry weather to the region for the next few days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight along and north of a cold front pushing south across the area. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to move south through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas overnight as the cold front slowly pushes into far southeast Oklahoma by Sunday morning.
Updated POPs to account for the focus of the front pushing south through the evening, so have reduced POPs in the north and narrowed the axis of the highest POPs at any particular time. (This evening through Sunday) The main story for the short term will be monitoring the movement of the surface cold front and the possible development of showers and storms later this afternoon. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the cold front, with 70s and 80s currently behind the front. This cooler air and the cloud cover should help keep temperatures down through the evening into Sunday, with lows dropping down into the lower 60s.
657 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The cold front which will eventually bring and end to today's wet weather is now passing through central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. dew point temperatures have dropped from the low 70s into the mid 60s at Kirksville and Moberly and it looks like the rain has all but ended in the northwest quadrant of the state. The drying trend from northwest to southeast behind the cold front will continue through tonight until the last few lingering showers move out of southeast Missouri early Sunday morning. Dry high pressure will build across the Mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday look mild for late Summer/early Fall in the low 80s.
750 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 A cold front approaches late tonight, and then crosses on Sunday. High pressure returns on Labor Day. A stronger cold front crosses mid week. High pressure late week. Broad longwave trof will gradually make inroads into the region by the end of the weekend, marked by mid level PVA and a trailing low level baroclinic zone. Showers and storms will be possible Sunday night as the area remains in the warm sector of a passing low pressure system. A cold front will be loosing its punch while reaching the OH River early Sunday night pushing most of the shower activity east.
The unsettled pattern continues through the weekend as a deep- layered trough of low pressure lingers around the region. Synoptically, things will begin to gradually change going in the lower levels with high pressure building westward across the Florida Peninsula setting up a very light southeasterly flow. Weak upper level ridging will be over our region but a weakness will develop in response to weak troughing across the Mississippi River Valley. The weak ridge aloft will eventually move under the aforementioned trough transitioning our upper level flow to a somewhat more active southwesterly flow. With some weak ridging and overall light flow, temperatures will remain warm outside of convection, but still right around climo for early September.
931 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 There is an area of low pressure working from sern Montana down through western South Dakota. The high begins to get pushed eastward Sunday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s east to the lower 80s west on Sunday.
Expect dry weather overnight as high pressure ridging remains in control. Some locations have held onto the lower 70s. Dry weather will continue this evening into tonight as the upper ridge remains in place. Elsewhere, highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
Discussion: Surface and upper level ridging will remain in control over the weather pattern for tonight producing dry conditions with patchy fog development mainly near area lakes/streams. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 87 69 85 65 / 0 30 50 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 85 69 84 62 / 0 30 60 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 83 67 83 61 / 10 40 70 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 81 65 81 57 / 10 40 70 30 0.
The cold front has pushed through most of the Panhandles by late morning today with north northeast winds following behind. Scattered to broken cloud cover persists across much of the Panhandles, which is limiting temperatures from warming past the lower to mid 80s. The upper ridge sits over New Mexico with west northwesterly flow returning aloft this evening and into the overnight hours. The upper ridge will have retrograded west to Cali and southern Nevada with northwest flow aloft for the forecast area.
739 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 A cold front is currently pushing across south central MO late this afternoon. An upper level trough is also moving across the region. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower 80s with less humidity. The upper level trough that is currently moving across the region will move into the eastern U. An upper level ridge will then build over the eastern U.
(06Z TAFS) Winds will remain light and out of north as a cold front moves through the area. (Today through Monday afternoon) Cooler temperatures are on their way. A cold front has moved into the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico early this morning. Therefore, increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures are expected in the short term. However, temperatures will remain warm south of the front, in the mid 90s, for the lower Trans-Pecos and 100s along the Rio Grande. Low temperatures are forecasted to range from the low to mid 60s across the region.
The early part of this week will see the upper level high pressure ridge over the western states building back to the north somewhat.
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will drift offshore today. A cold front will weaken while settling southeast across the region tonight and Monday. Water vapor satellite showed a weakening ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley, and a trough across the Ohio Valley, with west to northwest flow aloft across central North Carolina. Additionally, a cold front will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley today, arriving along the Carolina foothills by late tonight. Conditions are expected to remain dry across the region today, then a slight chance of showers is possible late tonight near the Triad as the cold front approaches the region and precipitable water values increase to near 1.
1155 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 A cold front is currently pushing across south central MO late this afternoon. An upper level trough is also moving across the region. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower 80s with less humidity. The upper level trough that is currently moving across the region will move into the eastern U. An upper level ridge will then build over the eastern U.
Building high pressure in the West will continue the warming trend, with highs today in the upper 80's through the mid 90's. Winds will remain fairly light under ridging.
1051 PM MDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Main feature of interest on WV imagery this aftn is a potent vort max digging from the nrn Rockies onto the High Plains across MT/WY at this hour.
and Monday West winds will pick up in advance of a cold front today, with gusts to 25 to 30 mph expected at most locations. A secondary area of concern will be in central and east central WI, near the cold front. The showers will exit the region by mid to late evening, followed by clearing skies as high pressure arrives overnight. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies on Monday, with lighter winds and high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
302 AM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021 High pressure will slide east today into the Atlantic. A cold front will approach from the west today and move through the area tonight. High pressure overhead will begin to slide east into the Atlantic today. This should keep fog development to a minimum and also keep morning temperatures several degrees warmer than the past two mornings.
Expect a pleasant afternoon across the region with cooler temperatures in the lower 80s and sunshine. Parts of the eastern Ozarks will see lows fall into the lower 50s. An upper level ridge will build across the the central CONUS as we begin the week.
A longwave trough over the Ohio River Valley will push a cold front into the Tennessee Valley today. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today, with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. With low level moisture creeping up, expect overnight lows back in the low 70s for most locations tonight. On the north side of the stalled front Monday, temperatures will remain in the lower 80s, increasing to the lower 90s across the far southeast.
1150 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Shower chances return tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is then expected later Sunday night through the first half of the week under high pressure. The associated surface cold front is progged to cross the area through the afternoon, with additional scattered showers with its approach and passage. Shower chances should diminish Sunday night as the cold front completes its passage. The Great Lakes trough lifts out toward daybreak Monday yielding a return of dry weather.
1146 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Lead wave and attendant cold front exiting the area this evening, taking the widespread light rain and drizzle with it. Elongated low pressure stretches from Central Canada thru the Western Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains this afternoon. and literally nothing is happening upstream along and ahead of the cold front now making its way thru Wisconsin.
Some clouds overnight psbl around Lake of the Woods closer to upper level low in NW Ontario. Overall overnight clear to partly cloudy and will keep the lows as forecast with 40s to low 50s. Cyclonic flow aloft around based of upper trough has supported diurnal shower and isolated thunderstorm development.
Discussion: Surface and upper level ridging will remain in control over the weather pattern for tonight producing dry conditions with patchy fog development mainly near area lakes/streams. VFR will prevail at all sites through early afternoon, but an approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and isolated thunder from N to S late this afternoon into tonight. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 69 85 65 86 / 20 50 30 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 69 84 62 86 / 30 60 30 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 67 83 61 84 / 40 60 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 65 81 57 84 / 40 50 30 0 10.
336 AM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021 The cold front at 08Z was located from near KAJG to KMWA, KCGI and KPOF, or just behind the main precipitation shield. There is an area of drizzle sliding south into the Tri State that may prolong the lowered visibilities there for a few hours behind the main rain shield.
The first will be today as some instability showers are expected this afternoon with trough axis swinging through the central Great Lakes region.
High pressure centered over the Missouri Valley this morning will spread east into the lower Ohio Valley through Monday. Expect upper 70s and lower 80s on both days with low level thermals supporting slightly warmer temperatures on Monday.
Otherwise, the main focus from here will be the cold front to our north which will bring better rain chances over the next 24 hours as the front slowly advances southward into our region.
1039 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The cold front which will eventually bring and end to today's wet weather is now passing through central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. dew point temperatures have dropped from the low 70s into the mid 60s at Kirksville and Moberly and it looks like the rain has all but ended in the northwest quadrant of the state. The drying trend from northwest to southeast behind the cold front will continue through tonight until the last few lingering showers move out of southeast Missouri early Sunday morning. Dry high pressure will build across the Mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday look mild for late Summer/early Fall in the low 80s. There are differences between deterministic guidance members on how far south the ridge will penetrate into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Places south of I-40 could see temps in the low 80s thanks to a little more sunshine in those parts.
High temperatures will be fairly close to average for this time of the year overall, although warmer than average temperatures are expected for the western third of the state where warmer air advects in through the day.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front has moved south into the Big Country, and will continue moving slowly south through our central counties today. Highs today are expected to be a little cooler (in the upper 80s to lower 90s) across the Big country north of the front. How far south the weak cold front ends up is in question at this point, as it becomes more diffuse.