Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND COOL DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS VORT MAX/UPPER LOW NOTED ACRS THE DAKOTAS. WILL ROTATE OR ALMOST FUJI-WARA DOWN ACRS THE CWA AROUND THE UPPER LOW ROLLING UP ACRS THE EASTERN GRT LKS BY 06Z.
A COLD FRONT SURGED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
250 AM MST THU FEB 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAEFS HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND PERCENTILES POINT TO A WARMER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS BUT SHORT OF EXTREME VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER DESERTS.
345 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
1232 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE RUSHES INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. ESPECIALLY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO DIP CLOSER TO FREEZING. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE HELPING TO HOLD MOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING SO FAR THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE 2000 FEET OR SO HAVE DIPPED DOWN TO FREEZING.
1119 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT EAST OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TAKES OVER BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. COOLER, DRIER AIR IS ON THE WAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
1150 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING ALOFT WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA. WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL TREND A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE COOL FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT XPCD TO MOVE THROUGH DRG THE AFTN HOURS TMRW. VFR THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GULF BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER TX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUN INTO NEXT MON AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS & ECMWF DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE INABILITY TO HANDLE WHETHER THE TROF WILL CUTOFF INTO A LOW OR NOT OVER THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDER THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF THROUGH THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS AND INTO THE 20S IN THE HIGHER RIDGE ELEVATIONS. GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 40 MPH IN THE RIDGES.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NEW MEXICO WITH THE MOST RECENT STORM NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EASING IN FROM THE WEST.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDGED IN BETWEEN A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS IS DUE TO A CONSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SHEARS TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
231 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016 Upper ridge centered over the West Coast this morning will slowly build east the next few days providing mild wx for the region.
FORECAST - OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING REINFORCED. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA KEYS WATERS IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Given this low-level instability, lingering moisture, and cyclonic flow, sprinkles or flurries will be kept in the forecast today. A 500 mb trough rotating southeast toward the Ohio Valley will provide some forcing. However, the low levels will remain well-mixed with a decent pressure gradient.
301 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016 A cold front has pushed through much of the area this morning with little impact. Rather chilly temperatures are expected tonight as high pressure builds into the region behind the cold front.
/ISSUED 944 PM EST/ SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. COOLER DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. ROBUST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1108 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
949 PM MST WED FEB 24 2016 THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST. AND FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL THEN REBOUND BEHIND EACH PASSING WAVE. THE HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
/ISSUED 759 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SWRN CONUS REMAINS SITUATED IN A NWLY FLOW REGIME LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF ELONGATED RIDGING EXTENDED ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST. THOUGH SOME MEASURE OF COOLER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH WAS STILL EVIDENT IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER A STOUT INVERSION AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AROUND THE H7 LAYER HAS TRAPPED MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE SFC-H8 LAYER. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION WILL EVENTUALLY BE FULLY MIXED AWAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES INLAND RESULTING IN A RESUMPTION OF MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS.
ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN RATHER WIDESPREAD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AND LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ONLY SLOWLY TODAY WITH THE NORTH WINDS AND BACK EDGE OF THERMAL TROF GRAZING THE STATE.
JUST DRY WITH SOME MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AND A LITTLE WARMER TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
257 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AND BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AND COOL AIR.
439 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY.
MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH EXITING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND/OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY 12Z ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN REGION. AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THOUGH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGHS SOME 5-10F COOLER THAN TODAY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE.
MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION. THE BROAD 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARDS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TO BUILD IN PLACE OVER THE U. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. BUT AN ISOLD NEAR FREEZING TEMP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN FOUR COUNTIES.
400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016 Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the low levels compared to previous soundings.
1145 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 Light snow continues from Champaign to Cumberland counties eastward as the deep low pressure center associated with today's winter storm moves into the eastern Great Lakes region. Tonights lows drop to below freezing. Either way, wet roads that are mainly untreated or have rinsed off their salt from melting snow today will be at risk for refreezing once the temps drop to at or below freezing. Forecast soundings not offering much hope with respect widespread clearing tomorrow and as a result, with the combination of the new snow cover, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area, and a mostly cloudy sky, will trend closer to the cooler guidance numbers for afternoon highs.
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD TONIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
1118 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
831 PM PST WED FEB 24 2016 High pressure will deliver dry and mild conditions through the rest of the workweek. A very weak wave embedded within in a long wave ridge will continue to track through the Inland NW tonight.
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1134 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BE BREEZY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY SUNRISE THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO OK TONIGHT AND HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER ACROSS NW OK RIGHT NOW THANKS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
305 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016 TRAILING TROUGH BEHIND LOW SITUATED NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH WHILST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS SOON AS TOMORROW /60S/. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPRISED OF UA TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UA RIDGE EDGES EWRD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND.
The result is a crystal clear sky across most of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the low/mid 20s. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing across much of the Concho Valley, I-10 corridor, and northwest Hill Country. A cold front will move south late tonight and Thursday morning, bringing slightly cooler air and northeast winds to West Central TX. The timing of the cold front will keep temperatures in the 50s across the Big Country, but should allow areas farther south to warm into the 60s.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW IS NOW SPINNING OVER OHIO WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NE COUNTIES.
406 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
1244 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI WITH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO MARGINAL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVS AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVZY ATTM. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WILL BE FIGHTING LOWERING HEIGHTS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AS RIDGING PERSISTS OVER WESTERN NOAM. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT AND THE WARMER AIR ALLOWING FOR MELTING. AS DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND ALLOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
Moderate northwesterly flow is expected across the region today in the wake of departing low pressure and its associated cold front. Much cooler high temperatures, compared to recent days, are expected today. Expect highs to be below average, in the low to middle 60s.
1127 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND A WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WI/EASTERN IL. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER NARROW W-E MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY WIND FOR THURSDAY IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN MN.
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS MAKING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OWING TO DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
103 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALLOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN SWLY FOR A WHILE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT SO IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE THE COLDER ARRIVES WITH UPSLOPE SNOWS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF SECONDARY RIDGE WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE (BUT NOT AT KLRD WHERE SOUTH WINDS BECOME EAST LATE AFTERNOON). WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
147 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KABR REPORTED FREEZING DRIZZLE. ATMOSPHERIC RH PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER MY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CENTERS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
1037 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 06Z TAF issuance VFR conditions will continue as a cold front arrives by mid morning.
401 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTED ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE NAM SHOWING H7 TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +1 AND +3 DEG C OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z WED. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH A COOLER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT YIELDING WEAKER INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THU BENEATH THERMAL RIDGING. A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DEEPENING MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS EVOLUTION WITH DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATION OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE (1006MB) OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AT 12Z. THE HIGHER TOTALS WERE FROM THE BOYSTOWN. MUCH COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THIS TIME OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW CO. COLD FRONT ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AS THE UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DIGGING JET. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE AS A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALSO HAD TO JUDGE AFTER A HOT PERIOD BUT DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS SOME 8 TO 14 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BRO RADAR INDICATES VERY FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BASED ON THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT PROFILE.
314 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 HAZY, WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS.
318 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ALOFT - LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UP AGAINST A RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A MODEST LOW/TROUGH WAS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC REACHED ACROSS FL TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN U. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE AL/GA/FL LINE.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THEN SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SERN WY AND NERN CO. TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT FALL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES C BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TONIGHT AS CAA CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT TOP OF PIKES PEAK AND OTHER HIGH POINTS IN THE SAWATCH COULD SEE A LIGHT SNOWFALL BY EARLY WED.
The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak trough along the FL Panhandle coast. The highest PoPs (70% or more) are in the Panhandle and southeast AL zones, with slightly lower PoPs to the southeast.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS COURTESY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED EAST OF MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MAINLY CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES INTO THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CURRENTLY A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NEAR SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE A POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING NEAR THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WITH ANOMALIES AROUND -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TO CATEGORICAL ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON /WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH CTRL FL WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SAGS INTO THE NORTH-CTRL PENINSULA.
350 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES BY, NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR THE COAST AND KIND OF ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THE NEXT REAL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER EACH NIGHT.
327 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THRU WED/WED NIGHT. WPC TRACKS THE LOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z TUE TO NEAR KMSP BY 00Z WED. WILL BE ON THE COOL/NW SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTIVE/HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND TODAY, BRINGING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK TO THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THE VALLEYS OF THE WEST SIDE, WITH AT LEAST 90S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALTURAS THROUGH LAKEVIEW.
226 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES BY, NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.
AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SUGGEST LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV LOWS AND COOLER MET HIGHS WITH PERSISTENCE LOOKED REASONABLE.
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL HAS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.