Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This boundary will continue to sink south today which will mean a cooler northeasterly flow will set up across the area. This cooler flow along with increasing cloudiness will mean much lower high temps today as compared to yesterday. As this low moves east this morning across Kansas, we will see moisture increase across our area. On Saturday, the main upper level low/trough will slide southeast across the northeastern sections of the CWA and bring chances for additional shower activity to southeastern IL, southwestern IN and adjacent parts of northern KY during the day.
Some fairly descent pre frontal troughing will eject eastward and reach our area by late this afternoon.
An upper level trough is noted from the Central Plains into central Texas with sub-tropical jet rounding the base of the trough. So there is an outside chance of a strong storm or two if they can tap into the higher instability. Low pressure moving across the central plains today will tap the relatively warm, moist gulf air that has begun streaming inland across the gulf coast over the last 12 hours to initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The highest overall coverage and intensity of the convection will be from mid morning through early afternoon during which a few strong to severe storms may develop.
Expect mostly sunny skies to continue over South FL through the day with light winds as high pressure remains in control. /issued 726 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018/ VFR will prevail through period at all terminals as high pressure overhead will lead to mostly clear skies and light winds.
701 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A dry cold front near the south coast will move to the south today and become stationary. Weak low pressure will move through late Saturday, pulling the front back north as a warm front.
725 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Aviation An area of high pressure will build in from the northeast today. Low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday. Tonight the low pressure system off to the west will be headed east. Guidance suggest this low will be weakening with time. typically supports the highest temperatures for the western part of the CWA.
Quite the low pressure system that moved through the area to our southeast over the past 12-18 hours. Warming cloud tops seen on IR imagery for areas west of the Laramie Range with cooling cloud tops along and northeast of a line from Bridgeport to Douglas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 54 76 50 / 10 70 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 50 74 48 / 0 60 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 64 49 74 48 / 0 70 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 39 67 44 / 0 60 70 60.
The southwest will just see a brushing of snow as an upper low closes off south of the region causing a pivot in the precipitation area. The dominant high pressure over eastern North Dakota will keep the region dry for all but the far southwest.
Depending on surface temps this brings a freezing rain threat. Later into the evening, soundings then point to some potential loss of ice - again, suggesting a freezing rain/drizzle threat. Enough signals though that a light glaze could also result from freezing rain.
636 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A strong low pressure system will be moving through the northwest portions of the State today. By Saturday, the cold front will be moving through and will kick the flow around to the north.
An upper low circulation can be seen in WV imagery off the OR coast, and continues to drop into the base of the upper trough entrenched over the western CONUS. At the surface a cold front will strengthen ahead of the upper low, and begin to lift northward as the upper low drops into the Great Basin by Saturday morning. With the highly amplified upper pattern, the cold front will appear to stall, which is contributing to some of the heavier snowfall.
623 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A variety of weather impacts are expected today and tonight thanks to a strong low pressure system moving through the area. WV imagery shows that this system is nearly vertically stacked with the center of the upper level low centered over northwestern Kansas. Mesoscale models (NAM/HRRR/RAP) all tend to develop an area of dynamic cooling on the backside of the low late this afternoon. The forecast quiets down for Saturday thanks to midlevel ridging, with light winds and temperatures rebounding into the 40s and 50s.
An upper level low will move out of the Central Plains this morning and weaken as it runs into the ridge that's in place over the region. Both the upper low and ridge will fall apart tonight as it runs into an eastern Canadian trough. Model soundings show that there will be some deep layer shear ~50kts, elevated CAPE that is capped at the lower levels 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs ~1", so with this a stronger storm cannot be ruled out. With the window of clearing late Saturday morning into the afternoon, it will be just enough time to allow for some destabilization before the cold front arrives Saturday night. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, finally getting rid of precip chances for this time period.
1114 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 High pressure spans from Central Florida to the northeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic. Surface ridging will prevail across the Florida peninsula through at least the next 24 hours, though the center of the anticyclone will gradually bridge eastward to the northern Bahamas Saturday. Moisture (and thereby, humidity) will continue to rebound across the Keys as the upper level trough swinging through the eastern US lifts northward this afternoon, taking the dry air across the southeast with it. An area of high pressure will be centered over the Florida peninsula today. This area of high pressure will progress eastward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean tonight.
840 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected into the afternoon under upper level low pressure. Light snow showers will continue through at least midday, but should begin to dwindle in coverage and intensity with the latest trough axis pushing east. Any remaining snow showers, generally over the I-80 corridor and ridges will dissipate, and cloud cover will decrease from west to east.
High temps will be near normal today, except for cooler conditions near Lake Michigan under easterly winds.
Surface ridging Friday will keep winds generally below 10kts.
Low pressure aloft will result in some showers, mainly over the mountains during the afternoons and evenings.
Surface obs this morning show a warm front located just north of the I-40 corridor with temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 north of the boundary, and rapidly warming into the upper 50s and low 60s south of it. Although clouds will increase into the afternoon as showers approach from the west and warm front will likely remain in our northern counties, still expecting a nice warmup into the afternoon with highs in the 60s to around 70 areawide. Current forecast looks good and only major change was to raise highs a couple degrees south of the warm front. As sfc front moves NE as a warm front across the mid state after 17/00Z, sfc pressure gradient strengthening will result in gusts up to around 18kts.
The dry slot associated with the upper low should spread east later in the morning and the afternoon. This is along and south of the warm front and ahead of the dry line. This will occur with the upper low moving overhead. The thermal profile changes dramatically across the warm front and with the cold air aloft moving in associated with the upper low, a narrow corridor of 500+ J/kg of CAPE develops. Shear becomes strong overtop this warm sector and there is strong turning with height in the low levels of the atmosphere. This system will track to the east and leave the area with quiet and cooler weather for the weekend.
High pressure will build across the Upper Great Lakes region today and linger through tonight. With the more active weather remaining well to the south, the northern Great Lakes will be dominated by sfc ridging from Hudson Bay and northern Ontario which will maintain dry weather.
1100 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A backdoor cold front will push south into central NC early this afternoon, then stall across the area through Saturday. An area of low pressure will cross the area Saturday night, dragging the front southward.
an overall dry atmospheric column /sampled by 00z RAOB/ with high pressure building into the low levels should help this coverage decrease in time. Overnight temps still look to remain cooler than last night. tho expect the area to remain above freezing. Given high pressure. That being said highest ridges could see a few patches where temps will be coldest. Dry high pressure will move south and east into the region Wednesday and through the remainder of the short term, with sunny and warmer conditions prevailing.
With the clearing skies, this should allow temperatures to fall into the lower 30s. Freezing Temperatures Possible Tonight. Readings ranged from the mid 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south. This will slide east to TN tonight as the upper trough axis swings east. The much anticipated warmup begins on Wednesday! High pressure shifts east as a low pressure system develops over the northern Plains.
733 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 High pressure will bring dry weather to the region this evening, but cloudy skies will likely remain for many locations.
1003 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 High pressure builds over the local area through Wednesday, then becomes centered off the coast through the weekend.
The high pressure ridge will move to the east Wednesday with a weak to moderate onshore flow developing. With southerly winds and more clouds, low temperatures will be much warmer Wednesday night. Winds will become light late tonight into Wednesday morning as the ridge axis moves into the coastal waters. Onshore flow will develop on Wednesday as the ridge axis moves east.
Fire weather, storm chances, and a return of freezing temperatures will be the highlights.
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 Cool high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic region though Wednesday.
805 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 High pressure builds over the area tonight and Wednesday, then becomes centered off the coast through the weekend.
Westerly mid-level flow from the Rockies over the high Plains will contribute to downslope flow/considerable warming into central Kansas the next couple of days.
Strong high pressure will keep temperatures well above normal through Wednesday. Highs temperatures will reach into the upper 90s through Wednesday across the lower deserts.
912 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 Widespread light rain/drizzle on back side of low pressure will slowly end and push offshore through the night as decreasing clouds start from NW across SE GA late this evening and across NE FL towards morning. Skies will become Mostly Sunny on Wednesday as High pressure building to the North into the Carolinas and NE flow will increase along the coast to 15G25 mph with NE winds around 10 mph further inland. There should be enough sunshine in the cooler/drier airmass to push temps into the lower to middle 70s over inland areas and upper 60s/near 70 along the coast in the onshore flow.
The combination of gusty southwest winds, mostly clear skies, and strong April insolation suggests that highs in the lower 70s are still appropriate for Wed. Meanwhile, a deep trough axis will be developing near the West Coast, and the developing low pressure system associated with the trough will bring active weather to MO/IL towards the end of the week. Favorable factors for warmth on Thu include south to southwest winds, mostly clear skies, strong April insolation, and an upper ridge axis nearly overhead and downstream of a deep trough.
Milder air will remain in place through Wednesday under an upper ridge/zonal flow. The added cloud cover will mean less of a chance for fog development after today's melt-off, but the low will also bring light precip on Wednesday.
1228 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 High pressure will build across the region overnight into Wednesday. Weak high pressure will return on Wednesday bringing a mostly sunny sky Downeast and partial sunshine over the north. The trough will cross the area Wednesday night. Some spotty snow showers are possible with the trough, but with the air remaining dry it will be difficult for precipitation to reach the ground.
Lee side trough has shifted east with an approaching ridge topping impulse. This has allowed much warmer westerly flow to overspread the area with temps rising into the 60s many areas. Attention then turns toward the potent upper trough expected to affect the region Thu-Fri. Broad lift in place and growing elevated instability will eventually support SHRA/TS Thur late afternoon/eve with the theta-ridge in place. Convection looks to develop over eastern WY shifting east through evening with the initial cold front. Initial deformation zone with the broad upper trough will likely support decent snow across parts of WY,SE MT, and possibly NW SD.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Plains with weak low pressure over Arkansas. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area from late this afternoon through tonight as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes. On Wednesday southerly flow will bring warmer air back into the area as a storm system moves from Minnesota into Wisconsin. The better forcing is north of the area but the highway 20 corridor may get side swiped late Wednesday afternoon with some light rain.
917 PM CDT Tue Apr 10 2018 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Further South, conditions are much warmer.
1039 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Wednesday. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes is forecast to provide a chance of showers to northern locations Wednesday night.
Highs temps tomorrow will be a tad cooler than today which is a few degrees below seasonal norms though with better subsidence in the boundary layer high temps could be a couple of degrees above guidance before the day is out. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s for most inland areas and the lower to middle 50s near the immediate coast. Highs Wed will climb to the lower to middle 70s for most inland areas and the lower 70s near the immediate coast.
While convection allowing mesoscale models try to develop showers near the shore tonight, forecast soundings keep dry air in place in the low levels, so will keep land areas precipitation tonight. Mostly cloudy skies and milder temperatures are anticipated tomorrow ahead of a low pressure area that will pass through southern Wisconsin Wednesday night.
While approaching cirrus shield may hold back temperatures to some degree in the north, soundings do support temperatures hitting the low 90s along KS/OK border.
Eventually the trough will move out of the region overnight, leading to decreasing cloud cover in spots, so temperatures could fall rapidly in some locations. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 20s. There will be some brief mid-level ridging and subsidence that will keep conditions over the region dry, particularly for Wednesday morning after sunrise and into the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer than they were today thanks to more sunshine and low-level warm air advection, with highs in the lower to middle 40s. An upper level short wave moves across the forecast area Wednesday night, in concert with a inverted surface trof, to generate a rain/snow mix in the evening, changing to or mixing with snow or freezing drizzle across the southern third of the region.
Dry high pressure will move south and east into the region Wednesday and through the remainder of the short term, with sunny and warmer conditions prevailing.
High pressure builds across the area overnight with another trough of low pressure crossing the region on Wednesday.
Winds will increase Wednesday late morning and persist through the evening hours out of the S-SW as high pressure moves away from the area. High pressure is currently in control of our weather and will be shifting to the east later tonight.
Accumulations on road surfaces may not occur until after midnight as METRO road temp forecasts hold on to above freezing values as light QPF and light winds slowly cool road temps, versus strong winds and or heavy snowfall which would cool surfaces more quickly. As the forcing lifts to the east a brief period of freezing drizzle and or drizzle will be possible across far northeast ND and lakes country of MN.
High pressure will continue to move closer to the area. This, along with clearing skies, will allow readings to drop off to the low to mid 30s overnight with areas of frost.
Overnight lows should fall to near current dewpoint values, mainly in the lower to middle 40s, with little indication that these dewpoints will change. Winds are still N most everywhere, but a handful of sites are coming in with NE as the high pressure slides E out of OK in AR.
That trough may spawn some showers, mainly north of Pittsburgh with lack of moisture continuing to impose overall precipitation limitation.
The above noted area of high pressure should move across the area during Wednesday.
Southwest winds will begin to increase on Wednesday, in advance of a major low pressure system approaching the west coast.
With the upper-level trough axis yet to pass through and the surface boundary still sitting across the peninsula, definitely think that some additional rainfall is possible overnight, just nothing like what we experienced earlier today. High pressure will then move over the southeast for Wednesday and shift over the western Atlantic Wednesday night through the end of the week, with winds becoming more easterly and then southeasterly.
This should bring some snow showers to the higher mtns early Weds but main effect will be to increase the pressure gradient for a time, resulting in some stronger winds.
Expect highs in the low/mid 80s and a dry W/WNW breeze increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph during the late afternoon.
Winds are still N most everywhere, but a handful of sites are coming in with NE as the high pressure slides E out of OK in AR.
Temperature will turn much warmer with highs in the 70s.
Main changes were to increase the cloud cover just a bit and decrease the low temperatures and dew points a few degrees.
Cold front continues to move slowly east this evening. This cold front will move across the region in the afternoon and evening with a period of rain and mountain snow. Cold upper level trough overhead Thu with -32C temps at 500mb.
Drier and more stable air will continue filtering into the RGV from the north as the cold front that moved through the region last night pushes to our south. This will allow the clds to clear out later this evening and tonight with more sunny skies prevail tomorrow and tomorrow night as surface and mid level ridging builds over the area. The surface ridging will be building to our east tomorrow which will allow the warmer and moister SE low level flow to return which in turn will combine with the increasing sunshine to allow the temps to warm steadily.
Finally some warmer weather, but potential for storms/winter At midday. At the surface, the warm front was lifting northeast with south winds increasing across the forecast area and temperatures warming through the 40s and 50s and several locations were in the 60s. The h5 ridge aloft was around 115 degrees west longitude with the atmospheric river coming onshore toward northern and central CA with cirrus spilling into the Rockies. Wednesday night with the cold front there is some weak frontogenesis combined with steep lapse rates and some hints of isolated precipitation chances. At this time there is a strong h5 trough moving onshore.
Temperatures should be cooler than guidance with clouds and rain expected to develop.
Weak low pressure to the northeast will continue to provide impetus for the front to shift southward, though not that fast. Not convinced of this scenario, but the trough looks strong enough to warrant chance PoPs overnight. It will be a little cooler Wednesday morning, but cloud cover will keep lows close to or a little above normal, upper 50s north and upper 60s far south.
High pressure will keep mostly clear skies and light winds. With low temperatures overnight in the low to mid 30s across the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 67 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 65 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 66 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 63 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 NC.
By 12z Wed, the high will reach eastern TN. Dewpoints beneath the current ridge are in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Thus, conditions overnight look to be favorable for min temps in the lower to mid 30s for much of the area.
1105 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 Under partly cloudy skies and mostly northeast winds 10 to 15 mph, temperatures range in the lower to upper 70s.
The location of the boundary is very obvious, with temperatures along and south of the Missouri River still in the mid 40s to 50s, while temperatures north are already dropping down toward the freezing mark. The main question with this precipitation as far as impacts are concerned will be the chance of freezing rain or sleet Wednesday morning. This will give rise to some icing concerns for the northern zones where temperatures are expected to dip slightly below freezing to make for possible slippery spots, mainly on elevated surfaces such as north facing decks, or other shaded spots.
/issued 917 PM CDT Tue Apr 10 2018/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Further South, conditions are much warmer.
/28/ High pressure continues to filter into the region today from the NW, resulting in clear skies over our region. Temperatures will begin to fall overnight as teh region of high pressure becomes centered over us. Temperature should reach the lower to mid 70's area wide under clear skies.
Clearing in the Columbia Basin with temperatures in the lower 60s has allowed convective cells to develop around Banks Lake with HRRR showing this activity moving east into Lincoln and southern Ferry counties this evening before dissipating around sunset.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 67 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 65 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 66 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 63 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 NC.
Southerly winds increase on Wednesday with a breezy and warmer day.
Lots of sun and warmer for Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Lower, MVFR CIGS will spread into the area Wednesday night as a fast moving low pressure system approaches and moves across central Wisconsin overnight. The models have been consistent with a quick shot of warm air advection rain and possible thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system/warm front tracking northeast across central Wisconsin. The higher rainfall amounts should be north of Milwaukee and Madison, lower along the WI/IL border.
The upper-level eastern CONUS trough will swing through the Tri- State region overnight, ushering in drier air aloft.
The low level jet has already intensified just of the deck, and llws mention was added to E OK and KFSM TAF sites. Main changes were to increase the cloud cover just a bit and decrease the low temperatures and dew points a few degrees.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing this evening as a weak cold front moves through. Cold front moving across Southeast Oregon this evening and should reach Southwest Idaho by 05z.
637 PM CDT Tue Apr 10 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, southwest winds will diminish early this evening, then ramp up again and become gusty by mid morning Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops across the central and southern high plains.
744 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Wednesday. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes is forecast to provide a chance of showers to northern locations Wednesday night.