Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This lowered RH values more and combined with the winds and temperatures will lead to elevated fire weather conditions in parts of western OK and western north TX this afternoon so have issued a Fire Danger Statement (RFD). Models show a closed low will approach the region during the day Thursday, moving from the 4 corners into SE CO, and bringing a chance for showers and some storms.
305 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A weak cold front will push south through the Ohio Valley overnight, bringing some clouds but likely no precipitation. Northwesterly mid-level flow is in place across the Ohio Valley with a ridge over the Rockies and a longwave trough over the East Coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s.
Temps should remain at or above freezing, so freezing fog isn't a concern. Tomorrow appears to be a rinse and repeat of today with the only difference being even warmer temps.
As the high drifts slowly eastward to near the Mississippi River by Thursday morning, clear skies, low humidity, and light winds will allow effective radiational cooling.
121 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 20z surface analysis had a diffuse lee trough from central MT into central WY and a weak backdoor cool front from western ND into northeast SD. Water vapour depicted upper low off the southwest CA coast with upper ridge ahead of it across the plains.
High pressure over the region and very light/calm winds overnight resulted in some early morning fog. guidance is split between a few degrees cooler and more in line with the current forecast. Given the warmer end of the spectrum within the guidance. For tonight, clear skies and light wind will allow for rapid cooling and temperatures should drop well into the 30s at most places for lows, with even some readings near freezing possible at the normally colder spots of north central MS.
With subtle mid level ridging remaining in place, tomorrow will be a near carbon copy of today.
255 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 A few sunny and gorgeous days ahead as high pressure sits over the Mid-South.
High pressure over the region today into Thursday with mainly clear skies and mild temperatures.
Guidance suggests clouds and possibly fog develop from the southern valley into the Devils Lake basin overnight with temps in the low 20s. NBM spread for highs tomorrow quite wide at DVL from upper 30s to upper 40s with less spread to the east where clouds are less likely and early March sun will help temps rise into the low to mid 40s tomorrow afternoon. Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions are in the offing as the region will be under the influence of a building upper ridge, while troughs remain anchored over both coasts. There are differences in the 500 mb cluster depictions, ranging from confluent to diffluent flow aloft and trough placement, but precipitation panel means do offer in the neighborhood of 0.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Dry and mild weather looks to prevail for the remainder of the week with upper ridging gradually amplifying over the western U.
Clear skies and modest return flow out ahead of a weak approaching cold front, will allow for milder temperatures today. High pressure will remain the main focus of the short term with a continued stretch of much needed dry weather. However, a back door cold front will usher in a slight cooler day for Thursday. Lows tonight will be chilly, but may see a bit more mixing overnight with the back door cold front, thus, only put a slight ridge valley split in for the more sheltered valley locations.
317 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 Strong low pressure will remain across the Maritimes through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
215 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 Another seasonably warm day across the region as high pressure was leading to plenty of sunshine, with afternoon temperatures well into the 40s and a few spots even hitting 50 degrees. Therefore did include fog in the forecast, with the lowest visibility expected west of the Mississippi River. Expect a similar day on Thursday with high pressure remaining in control, though perhaps slightly cooler with some cooler 925 mb air pushing in and some clouds lingering.
with a prominent split in the large scale flow along the west coast with a little more active southern branch including a slow moving closed low moving into southern California. Quick moving short wave trough passing east of the upper Lakes this afternoon. Rising surface pressures expected across the upper Lakes tonight in the wake of this afternoon's cold front. a fast moving short wave trough will dive into Michigan after midnight. which could be enhanced by a period of stronger low level convergence with some possibility of an inverted trough axis rotating back off Lake Huron and into northeast Lower.
929 AM PST Wed Mar 3 2021 An incoming low pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow to the area through tonight.
249 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 General high pressure will be in place through the short term while mid level flow transitions from west-northwesterly to northwesterly. Meanwhile, as faster flow aloft sweeps through the upper Midwest, a back door surface cold front is progged to sink through the PAH forecast area tonight/Thu morning, resulting in a surface wind shift from southwesterly to northeasterly. Quiet weather will continue into the weekend, as high pressure noses south from Canada into the region.
200 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 (Issued 200 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: Lingering thermal ridge is proggd to collapse tonight with winds turning more north and northeast. Seeing a decent drop in the 925 temps into Thursday, so a bit cooler day expected especially with the synoptic flow favoring onshore winds. High pressure near Lake Superior will continue to provide ridging across WI into Thursday night.
105 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A cold front over the Upper Great Lakes will press through our region tonight. as a wavy cold front continues to push south from Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. The cold frontal boundary will press through the region tonight with enough snow shower activity to coat the ground in many locations. Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front to keep some nuisance light snow/snow showers over much of western New York for at least the morning hours on Thursday.
152 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 Tranquil weather will persist into Thursday as we remain under the influence of upper level ridging. Overall, we are looking at highs perhaps a degree or two warmer than what we see today with most areas warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
A weak trough will extend back across the region from exiting low this afternoon into this evening, helping clouds linger. High pressure will build to the west Tonight, then to the northwest Thursday. Cool northwest flow will yield a little below normal temperatures Tonight, with lows generally in the lower to middle 40s.
High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions today.
Water Vapor imagery reveals a upper level ridge continuing to build into the region as our next low pressure system churns along the Baja Coast. Onshore flow will increase tomorrow afternoon/evening an advance of the approaching low pressure system.
245 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a upper low moving into southern CA, with an downstream upper ridge axis along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. The upper ridge will slide east in the Plains tonight and Thursday, as the upper low tracks east-northeast across the Four Corners and southern CO. Showers will taper off Thursday evening as the upper low pulls away. It will trend cooler Thursday with the added cloud cover and easterly low level upslope.
704 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A weak cold front will push south through the Ohio Valley overnight, bringing some clouds but likely no precipitation. Northwesterly mid-level flow is in place across the Ohio Valley with a ridge over the Rockies and a longwave trough over the East Coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s.
911 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure will extend across the Southeast ahead of a dry, backdoor cold front that will settle southeast across the Carolinas late Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly high pressure will follow and extend across the central Appalachians and southern middle Atlantic through the weekend. At the surface, 1021 mb high pressure analyzed over the lwr MS Valley at 01Z will continue to extend east across the Southeast, then newd through the e-cntl Carolinas, while a trough will remain in the immediate lee of the srn-cntl Appalachians. The aforementioned dry cold front will move through late Thursday and Thursday night. CAA will allow temperatures to fall back into the lower to mid 30s NW and mid to upper 30s SE Thursday night.
/issued 345 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the ArkLaTex controlling our area weather at the moment, with a light nerly low-level flow holding dewpoints generally in the 30s.
717 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure builds back in tonight through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. High pressure will continue to build across the region tomorrow, allowing for deep NW flow leading to warm and dry weather conditions. A dry cold front will push through the area late in the day allowing for breezy conditions to occur along the coast. The models continue to exhibit good run to run continuity and are in excellent agreement regarding the track of developing low pressure off the southeast coast this weekend. The model trend continues to keep the low suppressed south and further offshore with a cool but dry weekend now expected.
Relatively zonal flow begins to evolve into a longwave ridge over the Intermountain West. This blocking pattern keeps any moist weather systems from entering the area. Additionally the light easterly wind component also provides upslope lift along the Buffalo Ridge.
A ridge-valley split in temperatures is already developing due to the low level inversion. Temperatures have dipped into the upper 30s in a few valleys, while remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s in more urban areas and atop the ridges/mountains. By morning, lows will be in the middle to upper 30s in most valleys, and around 40 or in the lower 40s atop the higher elevations.
No major issues for tonight as high pressure briefly settles over the area.
946 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A cold front pressing through the region will generate some snow showers while setting the stage for colder weather that will persist through much of the weekend. The cold frontal boundary exits the region tonight, may be just enough snow shower activity to coat the ground in some locations. Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front to keep some nuisance light snow/snow showers over much of western New York for at least the morning hours on Thursday.
545 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Aviation Section Updated Continued warm, sunny, and generally calm weather is expected to continue the next couple of days as high pressure remains in control of the weather across North-Central and Southwestern Montana. However, this warm and quiet stretch will come to a close this weekend as a cooler and wetter weather pattern begins to form across the area. Warm, clear, and relatively calm conditions are expected to continue over the next few days as a strong upper level ridge remains anchored overhead. With this upper level ridge in place, expect the recent stretch of above average temperatures to continue through the next few days.
Modest ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. /issued 244 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night): 500mb ridge across the central United States tonight will shift eastward Thursday into Thurs night as a 500mb low/trough across the western U. high pressure across the east-central U. tonight into Thursday with east to southeast flow across the lower Texas coast. Low pressure will develop across the Texas panhandle Thurs night. Patchy fog will develop across the coastal sections of the CWA tonight as dewpoints recover across the lower Texas coast and winds are light.
Showers will diminish by midday Thursday with cooler daytime temperatures.
412 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A cold front over the Upper Great Lakes will press through our region this evening. Cold front right on our door step and will push into and through the Lower Lakes this evening. The cold frontal boundary exits the region tonight, may be just enough snow shower activity to coat the ground in many locations. Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front to keep some nuisance light snow/snow showers over much of western New York for at least the morning hours on Thursday.
General high pressure will be in place through the short term while mid level flow transitions from west-northwesterly to northwesterly. Meanwhile, as faster flow aloft sweeps through the upper Midwest, a back door surface cold front is progged to sink through the PAH forecast area tonight/Thu morning, resulting in a surface wind shift from southwesterly to northeasterly. Quiet weather will continue into the weekend, as high pressure noses south from Canada into the region.
A low pressure system will bring scattered light showers to mainly northwest Arizona tonight through early Thursday morning. High pressure will briefly build in afterward bringing warmer temperatures heading into the weekend.
935 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure builds back in tonight through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. High pressure will continue to build across the region tomorrow, allowing for deep NW flow leading to warm and dry weather conditions. A dry cold front will push through the area late in the day allowing for breezy conditions to occur along the coast. The models continue to exhibit good run to run continuity and are in excellent agreement regarding the track of developing low pressure off the southeast coast this weekend. The model trend continues to keep the low suppressed south and further offshore with a cool but dry weekend now expected.
727 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Continued warm, sunny, and generally calm weather is expected to continue the next couple of days as high pressure remains in control of the weather across North-Central and Southwestern Montana. However, this warm and quiet stretch will come to a close this weekend as a cooler and wetter weather pattern begins to form across the area.
549 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows clear to partly cloudy skies over most of the area, with a bit more cloud cover over the northern portion where some thicker mid clouds have been able to develop along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and leading edge of slightly better mid-level moisture. The warming trend looks to persist through the weekend as the upper ridge builds east and amplifies across the central part of the country.
In its wake, expect temperatures to fall back into the upper 30s to the lower 40s into early this evening.
652 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A weak cold front will cross the region Thursday from the north.
/Issued 231 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021/ Sunny and dry conditions are expected through the short term as low pressure system clears out of the region. Have continued to trend towards the lower end of guidance for dew points given the very dry air mass and the expected atmospheric mixing.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Dry and mild weather looks to prevail for the remainder of the week with upper ridging gradually amplifying over the western U.
An upper low near the Baja area/California gradually advances into the southern/central Plains through Thursday while a longwave trof evolves over the easternmost portion of the CONUS.
A low pressure system will cross southern and central Utah tonight through early Thursday.
212 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Continued warm, sunny, and generally calm weather is expected to continue the next couple of days as high pressure remains in control of the weather across North-Central and Southwestern Montana. However, this warm and quiet stretch will come to a close this weekend as a cooler and wetter weather pattern begins to form across the area. Warm, clear, and relatively calm conditions are expected to continue over the next few days as a strong upper level ridge remains anchored overhead. With this upper level ridge in place, expect the recent stretch of above average temperatures to continue through the next few days.
Upper level low over far southeast Colorado to begin Thursday evening will progress southeast across Oklahoma Thursday night. The higher elevation should result in mostly snow.
Mid-level flow will become more amplified as the CA system approaches tomorrow, with ridging taking shape over the central Plains states.
917 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A weak cold front will cross the region Thursday from the north.
934 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A weak cold front will continue to push south through the Ohio Valley overnight, bringing some clouds but likely no precipitation. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s, with lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s.
As the high to the north shifts more to the east tonight, easterly flow is expected over the Northland. Those easterly winds will keep temperatures cooler near Lake Superior on Thursday as well.
/issued 255 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ A few sunny and gorgeous days ahead as high pressure sits over the Mid-South.
532 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a upper low moving into southern CA, with an downstream upper ridge axis along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. The upper ridge will slide east in the Plains tonight and Thursday, as the upper low tracks east-northeast across the Four Corners and southern CO. Showers will taper off Thursday evening as the upper low pulls away. It will trend cooler Thursday with the added cloud cover and easterly low level upslope.
437 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021 20z surface analysis had a diffuse lee trough from central MT into central WY and a weak backdoor cool front from western ND into northeast SD. Water vapour depicted upper low off the southwest CA coast with upper ridge ahead of it across the plains.
706 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure will extend across the Southeast ahead of a dry, backdoor cold front that will settle southeast across the Carolinas late Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly high pressure will follow and extend across the central Appalachians and southern middle Atlantic through the weekend. While the cloud cover across the SE will retard heating through the 1st half of the days, temps should quickly respond day and we should see fairly uniform highs this afternoon in the lower 60s. The aforementioned dry cold front will move through late Thursday and Thursday night. CAA will allow temperatures to fall back into the lower to mid 30s NW and mid to upper 30s SE Thursday night.
Not much to update this evening as we have entered a calmer stretch of weather following a recent cold front passage. Going into tonight, only adjustments were to morning lows with temperatures averaging on the lower end of forecast guidance.
345 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the ArkLaTex controlling our area weather at the moment, with a light nerly low-level flow holding dewpoints generally in the 30s.
Have some mentions of patchy fog and freezing fog across far south-central Wisconsin, but mid clouds moving in should limit the development of anything dense this evening. Anderson (Issued 200 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: Lingering thermal ridge is proggd to collapse tonight with winds turning more north and northeast. Seeing a decent drop in the 925 temps into Thursday, so a bit cooler day expected especially with the synoptic flow favoring onshore winds. High pressure near Lake Superior will continue to provide ridging across WI into Thursday night.
Dry conditions as temperatures drop to seasonal values in the low 50s north and mid to upper 50s south. High pressure builds into the area leading to a welcome relief from the recent heat. Northerly winds 5-10 mph, with seasonal afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. Need to carefully watch the northern extent of the low stratus deck as it is quickly eroding, with skies clear from JAX to GNV north. Conditions improve Thursday morning into the afternoon as high pressure builds into the area.
558 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 Another seasonably warm day across the region as high pressure was leading to plenty of sunshine, with afternoon temperatures well into the 40s and a few spots even hitting 50 degrees. Therefore did include fog in the forecast, with the lowest visibility expected west of the Mississippi River. Expect a similar day on Thursday with high pressure remaining in control, though perhaps slightly cooler with some cooler 925 mb air pushing in and some clouds lingering.
The weather system responsible for the gusty winds today and the slight chance of showers mainly north of Tucson overnight will bring much cooler temperatures to the region on Thursday.
Tranquil weather will persist into Thursday as we remain under the influence of upper level ridging. Overall, we are looking at highs perhaps a degree or two warmer than what we see today with most areas warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Dry conditions are expected today as an upper level trough translates east of the region and an upper level ridge begins to build in from the west. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s.
1030 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A mainly dry cold front will pass through this evening, then high pressure will press down from Nunavut and Hudson Bay. Temps will drop into the m20s N and near freezing in the valleys of the SE. Arctic high pressure will extend down into the Gulf Coast states. The coldest of the air will be pressing through the lower lakes and New England. Clearing will mainly be for the srn half of the area Fri and Sat with the high sliding down, but the axis staying to the west.
At the surface, high pressure centered over the Lower MS River Valley meanders around through Thursday. On Friday, low temps increase slightly to the low to mid 40s north of I-10, and upper 40s to near 50 south.
/10/ Latest surface analysis had high pressure centered over our western zones. Normal morning lows run in the low to mid 40s. As the high drifts slowly eastward to near the Mississippi River by Thursday morning, clear skies, low humidity, and light winds will allow effective radiational cooling.
High pressure fills in Friday behind a dry cold front bringing below average temperatures.
Cooler air slides in from the NE Friday, dropping highs in the 50s when combined with cloud cover.
Mostly dry weather will continue for several days with warmer temperatures. /issued 533 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ A few sunny and gorgeous days ahead as high pressure sits over the Mid-South. A weak upper level low approaches the Mid-South Friday morning. The low quickly exits and high pressure builds in.
Upper level ridge with southwest flow over the region tonight into Thursday. An upper level trough and cold front will be approaching the Pacific northwest Thu night.
/issued 925 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ Clear skies and light to calm winds will prevail through the night with high pressure nearly overhead. /issued 345 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the ArkLaTex controlling our area weather at the moment, with a light nerly low-level flow holding dewpoints generally in the 30s.