Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THIS EVENING BUT WITHOUT ANY CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT IT TO REALLY FEEL LIKE AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.
IT WILL BE A QUIET DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SHARPEN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE LOW AREAS MAINLY OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTHWEST OF MADISON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 746 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015/ REGION IS BETWEEN DEEP UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF AND HRCN JOAQUIN MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS. IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY BEFORE TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN ON FRIDAY, THANKS TO AN INCOMING TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
/ISSUED 313 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE EWD TODAY TO A POSITION OVER CNTL NM AND COLO BY THE END OF THE DAY AND OVER THE WRN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. RESULTING INCREASE IN THICKNESSES SUGGEST 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM SWRN KS THRU THE ERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.
A MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. COASTAL FLOODING HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THIS EVENING. WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO LIFT THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WINDS INCREASING TNGT/FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
500MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW HAS ALREADY CUT OFF IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST TOMORROW. THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD LEND SOME INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. NLISTEMAA MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF NOW MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
619 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. THINKING TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AS MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME WIND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TODAY.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure is steadily building and settling in to our region, with northeast surface winds bringing more autumnlike air, as temp readings dip into the 40s and low 50s. Prefer the higher MOS values for max temps today, considering the high levels of sunshine, and this will give us readings a few degrees below persistence, or 65 to 70F.
A backdoor cold front will move into the area this afternoon, shifting winds to the east. Expect highs today ranging from the mid 80s across the northern Big Country to the lower 90s across the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor. This will keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight across the southern portion of the CWA. However, a back door cold front will provide cooler conditions and slightly drier air over the Big Country. A few showers will be possible north of the cold front after midnight.
746 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 REGION IS BETWEEN DEEP UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF AND HRCN JOAQUIN MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS. IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY BEFORE TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN ON FRIDAY, THANKS TO AN INCOMING TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
High pressure has built into the region with a cooler and drier air mass. Temperatures early this morning were in the upper 40s to mid 50s and dewpoints were in the low to mid 40s under a clear sky. Below normal temperatures are expected today despite plenty of early Autumn sunshine as high pressure to our north brings in a cooler and drier airmass. Highs today will range from the mid 60s to around 70, with lows tonight in the low to mid 40s.
738 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AVIATION A VERY LARGE AND SLOW MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WEATHER THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.
1049 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THIS MORNING. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
1017 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY APPROACHING THE N CENTRAL CA COAST. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WITH MORE SUN AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. A STRONGER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND DROP S OVER THE PACIFIC STATES THIS WEEKEND AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC. ALTHO THE NAM IS ABOUT 5 DAM DEEPER WITH THE LOW AT THAT TIME. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GENTLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS PERSIST AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE KEEPS THE GRADIENT WEAK FOR ONE FINAL DAY.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. WHICH WILL ALLOW THIS LOBE OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SASK/MB BORDER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHRA/ISOLD T OVER MAINLY THE NW FA THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SASK/MB BORDER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHRA/ISOLD T OVER MAINLY THE NW FA THROUGH THE MORNING.
2 INCHES NEAR BASTROP AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WITH A WEAK MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS HAS DESCENDED INTO AREA. WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING PLANTED WITHIN A NATIONAL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY. A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN OREGON LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS TO THE EAST SIDE. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY GET AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH BETWEEN NOW AND LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
630 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY.
1134 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS TODAY'S MORNING LOWS WERE MUCH WARMER DUE TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY BE COOLER FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING. THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT TIED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL GENERATE INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL WILL BE BETWEEN 05Z TO 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1112 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS RAIN ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT TODAY AND BECOME MORE BKN IN NATURE. ELECTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED WITH A FORECAST THAT KEEPS JOAQUIN OUT TO SEA AND THE UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF US. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF INGESTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER LOW.
946 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPINNING NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE A DRY AIRMASS IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHICH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A STRONG TROUGH PUSHING INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS A TROUGH DESCENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
Therefore, the high temperature forecast has been trended down, mainly in the western parts of our area. Not only will more surface heating occur in those areas, but models continue to indicate low-level confluence near a subtle surface pressure trough.
A COLD FRONT WILL BACK WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TO 23Z TODAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TO THE EAST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH SOME RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR TOMORROW NIGHT. WHEREAS MODELS HAD STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE INITIAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WOULD MAKE IT.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL BRING WINDY AFTERNOONS WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NRN CA. BUT UPPER LOW OFF THE NW CALIF COAST WILL COME INLAND TODAY ALONG 40N AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES IN. A FEW DEGS WARMER FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN OREGON WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE GREATER.
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS FAR WRN OK AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO TILT AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE FROM THE PAC NW LOW STARTING TO MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST.
WITH THE TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, CEILINGS AND POP'S WORSEN FARTHER EAST AND IMPROVE TOWARD THE WEST. AT 2 AM, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE SAME PICTURE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, DEEPENING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, CLOSING OFF A CENTER AROUND BNA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SINKING IT ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS, WHICH PUTS MOST SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID STATE. HOWEVER, AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, AND TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS WESTWARD, DEEP MOISTURE WORKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST AND INCREASES OUR RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
714 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. BECOMING SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING DOWN.
THE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STRONG TODAY BUT WILL START TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST AND STARTS RIDING UP OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL WEAKEN IT INTO FRI. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE REGION SHOULD HOLD THE CONV POTENTIAL DOWN NEAR ZERO.
BUT UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 850MB WE'RE COMPLETELY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA STATE LINE. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP AND LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
619 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S AS OF 2 AM. AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SHOULD SHOULD BE FOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20S.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1249 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS RAIN ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING FAR EASTERN RIDGE ZONES. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT TODAY AND BECOME MORE BKN IN NATURE. ELECTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. We lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF- ARW blended solution.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA LATER THIS MORNING.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONG CAA AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO THEIR COOLEST LEVELS OF THE WINTER AS THERMAL TROF BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THERMAL TROF OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
High temperatures will be in the upper 20s around Hays with somewhat warmer daytime highs farther southwest. Sunday will see the upper trough over Canada and the northern U.
320 AM MST SAT JAN 9 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS GRADUALLY RECEDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH THAT BROUGHT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE ROCKIES THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE THE CLEAREST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THICKENING FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SKIES CLOUDING UP AGAIN AS THE TROUGH FROM THE NW DROPS THROUGH UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO ALBERTA. THERE IS A SRN STREAM THAT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WITH ENERGY HEADING TOWARD THE SWRN CONUS.
THICKNESS VALUES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IN THE GRIDS. DEESE FCST PERIOD KICKS OFF WITH A DRY COOL START AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM.
958 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH NW LA THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT LA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
06Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND HIGHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS PUTNAM AND BUREAU COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING TO A TRACE BY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE BEST CAPTURED/VERIFIED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THUS FAR AND HAVE FOLLOWED IT FOR THIS FORECAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE ONLY SCEC OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS OWING TO MUCH COOLER SST VALUES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY THIS MORNING, SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION THERE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO WESTERN AR BY NOON TODAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL SWEEP IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM. STARTING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORNING.
WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE AND ERN USA TROF. PREDICTABILITY DECREASES THU-FRI AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WITH THE TROF FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE PAC AS WELL AS THE CONFIGURATION OF THE BROAD TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES QUICKLY FOLLOWING TUE. RETURN/DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS WED AS THIS HIGH EXITS INTO THE SE USA. MON NIGHT: ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THU NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LVLS DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
535 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 Precipitation is spreading northeast into the Ozarks this morning while sub-freezing air continues to spread in from the northwest. This is just shy of winter weather advisory criteria, and with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing this morning, and the fact that it's a weekend with less traffic on the roads, impacts shouldn't be enough to warrant an advisory for these areas.
542 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE EXPD WITH THE LOW LVL JET IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN MRNG PASSAGE. THOUGH LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LT SUN/SUN NGT COULD RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH TEXAS IS ENHANCING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE REMAINING PROFILE FEATURES GENTLE VEERING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL WATERS.
552 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 A COLD FRONT PASSING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL INITIATE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES. BEHIND THE EASTERN-EXITING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER. SOME SPOTS UP NORTH COULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING NEAR FREEZING AS WINDS WEAKEN.
Snow beginning to diminish some this morning across northeast Oklahoma, as evidenced by current radar trends and the location/movement of the upper low.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE UPPER DESERTS.
639 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE EXPD WITH THE LOW LVL JET IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN MRNG PASSAGE. THOUGH LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LT SUN/SUN NGT COULD RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
1037 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER TX AND EVENTUAL STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FOR SUN. DURING THE EVENING BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
425 AM MST SAT JAN 9 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS GRADUALLY RECEDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH THAT BROUGHT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE ROCKIES THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE THE CLEAREST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THICKENING FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SKIES CLOUDING UP AGAIN AS THE TROUGH FROM THE NW DROPS THROUGH UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO ALBERTA. THERE IS A SRN STREAM THAT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WITH ENERGY HEADING TOWARD THE SWRN CONUS.
A BAND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND GUSTY NWLY SFC WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LAGGING BEHIND COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
544 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 A HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 PATTERN WAS PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS AS A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO QUEBEC. WEST OF THE TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDED UP THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOTED OVER MONTANA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
FEEL THE HIGHER ELEVATION COTEAU REGION WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM OFF THE CA COAST UP INTO AK. A TROUGH WAS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS (WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NERN NM). THEN ANOTHER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD DOWN TO NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.