Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
642 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Low pressure over New England will move offshore and drift south today and tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Plains will also shift east and move over the Midwest, so warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures near or just above normal. Upper low off the New England coast will move south today. The main trough axis will rotate off the Mid Atlantic coast today. As with the past few days, the warmer guidance will be used for maximum temperatures. Upper ridging over the Midwest begins to encroach into our region Friday.
646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region. Heat continues to build today, before a cold front passes tonight and Friday, sending temperatures back to more comfortable summer levels for the weekend. A warmer day expected today with building heights as the upper low starts to track east of New England. A cold front approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley will bring a better chance of convection to the eastern Lake Ontario region during the evening. The cold front will only drop towards the central waters of Lake Ontario and points eastward tonight.
/issued 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and mainly dry conditions expected across the area today, as the upper level ridge dominates. Temperatures will a Little cooler compared to yesterday, owing to a weaker 850mb thermal ridge, with highs for the most part in the upper 90s.
/issued 459 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ The upper-level trough that has been over much of the western CONUS has begun to retreat back to the northwest. The upper-ridge that has been over the southeast has expanded and moved west to encompass much of South Texas. The dryline has once again retreated, with the low-level moisture all the way back into eastern NM. Kendrick Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry through most of the weekend as upper ridging dominates overhead. Some convection will be possible across eastern NM as diurnal storms develop across the higher terrain of NM. These should stay mostly to our west due to the position of the upper high.
Warm ground temperatures has kept the lowest visibilities around one half to one mile, so not much of any dense fog. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft across northwest Wisconsin may be enough to again generate isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with any precipitation chances looking limited to north of I-94. Expect a continuance of hot and humid conditions into the weekend as mid/upper ridging persists between western and eastern CONUS troughs.
941 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the end of the week. Otherwise, mid/upper level ridging will continue to build in across the area through this afternoon with rising heights aloft. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to nose into our area from the southwest through Friday. With some airmass modification, 8h temps will nudge up a bit, with highs on Friday mainly in the lower 90s. The period begins Friday evening with a broad H5 ridge from the central U.
459 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 The upper-level trough that has been over much of the western CONUS has begun to retreat back to the northwest. The upper-ridge that has been over the southeast has expanded and moved west to encompass much of South Texas. The dryline has once again retreated, with the low-level moisture all the way back into eastern NM. Kendrick Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry through most of the weekend as upper ridging dominates overhead. Some convection will be possible across eastern NM as diurnal storms develop across the higher terrain of NM. These should stay mostly to our west due to the position of the upper high.
High pressure will keep conditions dry across southern Wisconsin. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern for southern Wisconsin. With dewpoints around 70, this yields a max heat index value in the lower 90s. Heat indices in the low 90s fall just below the heat advisory criteria, which requires values to reach into the mid to upper 90s for four days or more.
641 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure builds into the region from the northwest today into Friday.
921 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure builds into the region from the northwest today into Friday.
/issued 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ An upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest and an upper ridge is over the Southern Plains. Temperatures today are expected to be cooler than those yesterday with an increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorms are possible areawide this afternoon and evening with the best chances across the higher terrain. Upper ridging will continue over the region through the end of the week.
438 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way.
/issued 358 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The short term period will be rather tranquil under a ridging pattern.
Aloft, troughing exists along the north/mid Atlc coast through the southeast U. Weak surface ridging was shunted south/east of ECFL. The stationary front will move little, though weak low pressure is forecast to develop across it and along the southeast U.
TFJ An upper low over western Canada/Pacific NW will gradually weaken over the next few days into an upper trough that will remain in place for several days. Varying degrees of SW flow will over Montana for the next several days with an upper ridge to the east.
Some of the high res guidance wants to bring in a few showers this afternoon. The ridge aloft which has kept rain chances low over the past few days will shift west away from the area Friday as a trough digs into the southeastern states.
The Delta Breeze is a little stronger than yesterday as the marine layer has deepened a bit along the coast in response to slight lowering of heights aloft as the PacNW trough evolves.
Another busy convective day expected again today as upper trough digs into the southeast with upstream convection likely moving se into the area. Stacked ridging across the Gulf of Mexico continues today with a prevailing westerly low level flow pattern and ample moisture across the region. A short wave trough will reside over SE GA and NE FL will provide some disturbances around its base over the northeast Gulf and northern FL. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.
High temps should reach the low-mid 80s most places.
403 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 (Today and Tonight) Hot and mainly dry conditions expected across the area today, as the upper level ridge dominates. Temperatures will a Little cooler compared to yesterday, owing to a weaker 850mb thermal ridge, with highs for the most part in the upper 90s.
422 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Today through tonight: The subtropical ridge axis has shifted west of the ArkLaMiss region, and cyclonic flow on the east side of the ridge promises to initiate more MCS activity over the forecast area for later today into tonight.
1034 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Upper level trough offshore will continue to pull away from the area today and tonight.
A retrograding upper level low over the PacNW and broad upper trough covering much of the West Coast continues to be the large scale weather features of note. The lowering 500 mb heights, decreasing N-S gradient and continued onshore flow allowed for a better marine layer push overnight.
The broader upper pattern is characterized by a closed low over New England with a ridge stretching from the southern Plains to the northeast into the Great Lakes. At the surface, the cold front is now to the south of the forecast area.
640 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Temperatures will rise through the weekend as a strong ridge builds towards the Great Lakes. The upper level low that has showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region the last few days is finally heading eastward out into the Atlantic.
High pressure will remain in place over Lake Michigan through the weekend. High pressure will keep conditions dry across southern Wisconsin. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern for southern Wisconsin. With dewpoints around 70, this yields a max heat index value in the lower 90s. Heat indices in the low 90s fall just below the heat advisory criteria, which requires values to reach into the mid to upper 90s for four days or more.
/EC/ Today through tonight: The subtropical ridge axis has shifted west of the ArkLaMiss region, and cyclonic flow on the east side of the ridge promises to initiate more MCS activity over the forecast area for later today into tonight.
621 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the end of the week. Otherwise, mid/upper level ridging will continue to build in across the area through this afternoon with rising heights aloft. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to nose into our area from the southwest through Friday. With some airmass modification, 8h temps will nudge up a bit, with highs on Friday mainly in the lower 90s. The period begins Friday evening with a broad H5 ridge from the central U.
The broad trough over the Western U. At the same time, high pressure will build over the Southwest U. The marine layer will deepen today and tonight as the trough moves westward. Afternoon highs across portions of the interior will fluctuate slightly over the next couple of days, but will remain mostly in the 80s to around 90 degrees in the warmer interior valleys.
234 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way.
The holiday weekend will average slightly warmer than normal. A weak troughy pattern along the US west coast is producing moderate onshore flow over California and has stretched the marine layer to around 2500 feet deep.
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Temperatures will rise through the weekend as a strong ridge builds towards the Great Lakes. The upper level low that has showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region the last few days is finally heading eastward out into the Atlantic.
A broad trough of low pressure remains stationary over central Alberta and British Columbia leaving the Northern Rockies under broad southwest flow aloft. The chances for precipitation will largely hinge upon waves of energy rounding the trough and ejecting over the Northern Rockies.
Aloft, ridging extended from the upper Midwest southwestward to Mexico, and a trough was near the East Coast. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will move east, effectively allowing for more control for the ridge. Summer like pattern remains the story for the extended as mid and upper level ridge dominate the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.
Temps will punch into the low 90s for most, but dewpoints in the mid 60s will keep heat indices very close to the actual temp. To start the weekend, upper level ridging will maintain its hold across much of the central CONUS, but then gradually flatten as we transition into a more quasi-zonal pattern aloft by early to mid week.
/28/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: The subtropical ridge axis has shifted west of the ArkLaMiss region, and cyclonic flow on the east side of the ridge promises to initiate more MCS activity over the forecast area for later today into tonight.
Temps will warm into the lower 80s in lower elevations today, and then up to around 90 tomorrow.
The lone exception will likely be in north-central Wisconsin where a trough overrunning the upper level ridge may produce just enough convergence for a few showers and storms to develop. Very warm and humid conditions stick around through the holiday weekend and beyond as upper ridging remains in control over the middle of the CONUS. These temperature and dewpoint values paired together will result in heat indices in the low to mid 90s, which remains below Heat Advisory criteria.
243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 (Tonight and Friday) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon hours, but coverage should be much lower than the last few days as upper level ridging slowly strengthens across West Central Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Hot and dry conditions are forecast on Friday as an upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico/New Mexico dominates the weather across the region. Upper level ridge eases into place for the weekend and brings drier conditions back to the area.
151 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the end of the week. Otherwise, mid/upper level ridging will continue to build in across the area through this afternoon with rising heights aloft. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to nose into our area from the southwest through Friday. With some airmass modification, 8h temps will nudge up a bit, with highs on Friday mainly in the lower 90s. The period begins Friday evening with a broad H5 ridge from the central U.
301 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Temperatures will rise through the weekend as a strong ridge builds towards the Great Lakes.
Otherwise, look for low temperatures overnight to drop into the low 70s. Beginning on Friday, 500 mb heights slightly lower due to a persistent trough to our northeast expanding into the Southeast. Late this weekend there will be a ridge building from the Southwest into the Plains and a mid/upper level low anchored in the Lower MS Valley.
Updated 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 02 2020 (03/12Z TAF Period) Some lingering isolated showers exiting the region east of KHVR this morning, making way for some warmer, breezier, and drier conditions through tonight across the region.
1115 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way.
Subsidence in wake of upper shorwave trough off the se coast has limited convection over most of the area so far today. E-W troughing to the north will reach the Ga-Fl border on Friday continuing the scattered to numerous areas of convection.
Models continue to advertise a weakening of the persistent Pacific Northwest (PACNW) trough that has been locking things down for quite some time now. As the trough retreats northward a bit, high pressure will be poised to slide westward across Texas and into New Mexico over the next 48 hours.
An upper trof axis is currently positioned east-west across central Alabama into east central Mississippi and extends off to the extreme northeast states. With the slow southward shift of the upper trof axis, this region of high deep layer moisture becomes oriented mainly over the coastal counties and the northern Gulf while slightly drier air (precipitable water values down to 1. Wet bulb zero values will be near 14 kft today, then on Friday similar values are expected over the coastal counties, but this will trend toward lower values near 12 kft well inland due to the slightly drier air north of the upper trof axis. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the immediate coast.
343 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure will remain to the northwest of the area through Friday. A very weak cold front will approach the area on Friday night.
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Strong high pressure will continue to remain in place across the airspace with VFR conditions. * None Blocking pattern in the mid to upper levels continues with ridging over the Plains into the western Great Lakes and slowly evolving troughs over the west and east coasts. Light onshore flow will again keep temperatures on the lakeshores a few degrees cooler. While ridging remains into the upcoming weekend, the east coast closed low will be moving offshore driven by a digging trough through eastern Canada. This digging trough will actuall allow lowering heights at 500 mb to creep into the central Great Lakes as the ridge axis is pushed slightly to the west by Friday morning. Little change in the airmass will continue to support high temperatures mostly in the low 90s through the holiday weekend.
1254 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Temperatures will rise through the weekend as a strong ridge builds towards the Great Lakes. The upper level low that has showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region the last few days is finally heading eastward out into the Atlantic.
The pattern changes little during the period with an upper-level ridge parked over our part of the country. The models do not squash the ridge today as much as they did yesterday, thus am more confident in summer-like heat and humidity along with lower chances of rain during the period.
Slightly drier air will filter into the cwa from the northeast tonight, so low temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previous nights. Highs will also be quite a bit warmer thanks to the drier airmass with upper 80s to low 90s for most locations.
The holiday weekend will average slightly warmer than normal. A dry southwesterly flow aloft prevails over Central California at this time, while a trough is also positioned over much of the West Coast. On Friday, temperatures are projected to rise back up by a couple of degrees with a more noticeable increase on Independence Day as the ridge of high pressure to our east retrogrades slightly.
206 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 A closed upper low is located off the New England coast with associated troughing extending southwest along the eastern seaboard. This trough remains to the north while upper ridging extends over southern Florida. On the surface, high pressure extends over southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, while a stationary frontal boundary extends from from west to east along the northern gulf coast states, through GA and into the western Atlantic. Interaction between this boundary and high pressure over southern Florida will keep a warm and moist west-southwest onshore wind flow over the region for the next several days.
Look for lows tonight mainly in the lower to middle 70s. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler on Friday, with highs ranging from the middle 80s in the eastern Ozarks to the lower 90s in southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri. This period will be dominated by a persistent upper level ridge over the area.
An east-west ridge axis is located across the far southern Florida Peninsula this morning.
121 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Low Pressure over New England has moved offshore today. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure shifted east and is over the Midwest. As high pressure edges into the region through the weekend, warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures near or just above normal. The region will be in between a low off the New England coast and an upper level ridge over the Midwest by tonight. A few of the convective models are showing some weak convergence along the Blue Ridge this afternoon. High temperatures will range in the 80s west of the Blue Ridge to low 90s east. However, we will start to transition to becoming more influenced by the upper ridge rather than the upper low. With heights increasing aloft, temperatures Friday will be a degree or two warmer than today.
Lower pressure to the southeast over eastern NC and stationary front to the south over SC, GA and AL will sink farther south as high pressure to the north over the Great Lakes and a building ridge in the same area will help suppress convection across the forecast area today. Temperatures will be warmer and updated all highs a degree with the lower elevation areas around 90 degrees.
The highest chances for showers and storms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. A cold front approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley will bring increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Saint Lawrence Valley and North Country this evening. Behind a cold front any lingering convection will quickly end through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.
Weak H5 ridge axis (w/ 590-592 DM heights) will transition from just east of the CWA to just west of the CWA through Fri. Two separate small disturbances moving NE up the west side of the ridge (One over AMA and another one in ERN NM) are helping to trigger isolated to scattered convection along the aforementioned moisture band and an increase in coverage is expected over the next hour or two. Disturbances will make there way more from the NW on Friday as the H5 ridge axis slides west. That said, the favorable upper level patter with ridge axis to the west and favorable moisture profiles will still warrant ISO to SCT POPs favoring the NW half of the area for greatest chances in the late afternoon and evening.
152 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 A weak cold front will bring slightly cooler and more comfortable weather to start the holiday weekend.
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 More active zone of weak short wave energy riding down the front side of the broad, weak upper ridge to our northwest has shifted west of the state and this trend is expected to continue through the short- term forecast period. Over the weekend, an upper low will linger over the Gulf Coast, providing a focus for the highest convective coverage, especially across the western half of the forecast area.
/issued 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ An upper level trough will set up over us for the next few days.
254 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show a highly amplified pattern in place across the Nation, as a pair of low pressure systems to our east and west keep a squished ridge axis centered across the Country. The heat and humidity under the ridge axis has kept conditions in eastern Kansas and northern Missouri hot and muggy for the most part, with occasional storms as nocturnal MCS's wander across the Plains States. Benefit of the surface anti-cyclone is the somewhat drier easterly surface wind that should remain in place across Missouri and eastern Kansas through the weekend, which will take the edge off the heat and humidity a bit for the holiday.
High pressure is sitting over central WI this afternoon. Temperatures have crept into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints are holding steady in the lower to mid 60s.
Storms that are forecast across western Kansas tonight could form MCV, rotating around periphery of upper ridge on Friday.
Moving into Friday, the trough currently over the eastern coast will dig southward and kick up a weak front.
301 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest through Friday.
1217 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020 NW CONUS upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region through the period at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region at times. Convection will likely develop over portions of NE WY where capping will be weakest, with other convection possible on the Black Hills and on the Pine Ridge over northern Neb and/or scentral SD per weak CIN.
1249 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Temperatures will rise through the weekend as a strong ridge builds towards the Great Lakes. The upper level low that has showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region the last few days is finally heading eastward out into the Atlantic.
Outside of storms, highs will reach into the lower 90s again. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by stout ridging across the Central and Southern Plains with a mean longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, across the southeast states, weak troughing will persist both aloft and at the surface. This synoptic pattern could yield northwest flow "ring of fire" MCS activity across portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and will be worth keeping an eye on.
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 An upper level ridge and the slowly diminishing Saharan dust will persist over the area through Friday night keeping rain chances extremely low.
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 An upper high centered over the Central Plains is forecast to drift into the desert Southwest US over the forecast period. It will be somewhat difficult to pinpoint exactly where thunderstorms will form with a lack of synoptic scale fronts, however the best probability for rainfall should be across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area proximal to the Gulf Coast upper low.