Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/ Tonight will prove to be another relatively mild night with lows ranging from the low 50s to mid 60s as westerly to southwesterly winds around 5-10 mph continue across the FA. Temps will also be in the low to mid 90s again with the warmest temps expected over the TX Panhandle and the Rolling Plains where higher thickness values and H850 temps will be located.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through the short term under weak ridging aloft.
Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through Monday. Surface analysis had a 1022mb high centered over the Carolinas that will continue to weaken as it ridges back to the southwest across the Gulf coast states through Monday as well. Ridging surface and aloft tonight will contribute to a light wind and a mostly clear sky. Monday morning lows will continue above normal in the low to mid 60s. Normal lows run from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s southeast.
Strong and large scale high pressure over Texas will continue to provide vfr conditions across all of the Rio Grande Valley air terminal sites through Monday. /issued 249 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): 500 mb ridging will remain entrenched over the RGV throughout tomorrow night maintaining dry and stable conditions over the area.
The tight gradient along the leading edge of the trough has provided the energy for gusty winds across the area on Sunday. This gradient will persist over the area as the low continues to deepen through Sunday night and Monday, and will allow for winds to increase through the day on Monday. For context on how warm the beginning of the week will be refer to the CLIMATE section at the bottom of this discussion for some climatological stats regarding the high temperatures on Monday. This ridge will bring a much cooler and dryer air mass to the area, bringing an end to the near-record setting heat.
740 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 An upper level ridge will build through Monday.
Meanwhile, another area of showers was spreading into SE Oregon associated with an upper level trough. Showers associated with the trough will move into the remainder of SW Idaho (north and west of Mountain Home) including the Treasure Valley by around midnight. Southeast to south winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts will shift to the west-southwest late tonight behind the passage of the upper trough and associated cold front.
902 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will shift southward Monday and remain to our south through midweek.
915 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Upper ridge will continue to build across the area tonight and Monday. At 900 pm temps were arnd 70 with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Low pressure across the Dakotas and sfc pressure gradient to the SE will maintain steady S-SE winds over E Iowa/NW Illinois. On the SE flank of the low, the height gradient becomes very tight which causes SW 850mb winds to increase from 30 kts early in the day to 50+ kts by the evening. Winds: Juxtaposition of a strong low-level jet in a dry/clear atmosphere and area of low pressure is usually indicative of efficient boundary layer mixing and gusty winds.
641 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Easily the coldest temps of the season so far with cold Canadian high pressure providing optimal conditions for radiational cooling this morning. weak isentropic ascent along a northward retreating warm front may be enough to squeeze out a few shwrs any maybe a few thunderstorms across southern portions of the fcst area.
/issued 714 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/ For the 13/12z TAFs, a cold front will become stationary across the area early in the period. Scattered convection has already developed along the front and additional development will occur periodically over the next 24 hours as an upper trough approaches from the west. With high pressure to the east, southerly flow to maintain warm conditions with high temperatures in the mid 80s and low temperatures around 70.
717 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A showery cold front will cross west to east across the region today. Behind the front, drier and cooler weather will follow tonight through the start of the weekend.
Have decided to hold onto the frost advisory a bit longer as temps were in the low 30s near Hays as of 8 am CDT. High pressure will move eastward across the Central Plains with weak lee High Plains lee troughing forming in its wake. Lows for Friday will be warmer with the south winds continuing through the overnight.
714 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 For the 13/12z TAFs, a cold front will become stationary across the area early in the period. Scattered convection has already developed along the front and additional development will occur periodically over the next 24 hours as an upper trough approaches from the west. With high pressure to the east, southerly flow to maintain warm conditions with high temperatures in the mid 80s and low temperatures around 70.
909 AM PDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A little warmer today with weak high pressure and the marine layer becoming slightly more shallow tonight into Friday morning, with low clouds and fog along the coast and western valleys. Expect slight cooling Friday with high pressure weakening aloft.
1024 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. A large area of high pressure will build across the northern Mid-Atlantic Friday and settle over the central Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
Gilchrist Previous discussion: Upper ridge will move across Montana today with dry weather and warmer temperatures. Flow aloft turns to the southwest tonight and Friday as an upper trough moves inland over the Pacific NW. A wave in the SW flow aloft on Friday will bring a cold front through the area during the day.
1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure over the Great lakes will build into the area tonight and Friday bringing cooler and drier air to the region. As the high moves to New England, warmer air will return under sunny skies.
A cold front is just north of AUS and should move through the terminal later this morning before stalling. A cold front along a Temple to Fredericksburg to Rocksprings to Dryden line was sagging to the south early this morning. The front should stall along the Highway 90/I-10 corridor into the southern Edwards Plateau later today. A mid level trough and an upper level jet also approach from the west. With the Subtropical Ridge nearby and PWs near or slightly below seasonal normals, only isolated coverage is expected. The front dissipates or lifts north of our area early Friday, then the trough and jet move off to the east in the afternoon. There could be isolated showers along the Highway 77 corridor to the Coastal Plains on Friday ahead of the mid and upper level features.
742 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 A moisture-starved cold front will cross VA this afternoon and NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. The trailing portion of the front will stall across the TN Valley, as the upper forcing lifts well N and away from the Middle Atlantic states, while the ERN portion of the front will be driven SWD through VA/NC by following high pressure ridging E of the mountains.
953 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A showery cold front will cross west to east across the region today. Behind the front, drier and cooler weather will follow tonight through the start of the weekend.
Very weak cold front is washing into the area now from the northwest, and should exit the eastern areas in the middle of the afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 59 80 61 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 55 77 59 / 10 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 76 56 77 59 / 10 0 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 49 74 54 / 10 0 10 20.
Precipitation will continue to diminish from the north and west early this morning with the passage of a cold front. High pressure at the surface and slightly rising heights aloft should keep the region dry today, this evening, and through most of the overnight hours. Late tonight/early Friday morning a short wave moving eastward out of the southern plains will tap into moist southerly flow on the back side of the high pressure and create overrunning precipitation across the far western sections of our CWA.
Synoptic subsidence overspreading the region in the wake of a weak trough over New Mexico will generate dry conditions and above normal temperatures over Northern Arizona today. Beginning Friday, a zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across northern Arizona as a large, broad trough develops over the western United States.
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 A moisture-starved cold front will cross VA this afternoon and NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. Attendant cold front that now stretches from the eastern Great Lakes SWWD through the Lower MS valley will move SEWD through Central NC this evening and into the overnight hours.
1045 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 The 10 AM surface analysis depicts a cold front located across southeastern portions of the CWA, with advection of dry and cooler air evident under northerly surface winds behind this feature. A cold front is currently across northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. By this afternoon, the cold front should be south of the forecast area so dry weather is expected to return by then. Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front with highs today ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 80s.
A short wave ridge is overhead this morning with a broad deep trof upstream covering the entire Gulf of Alaska. Low amplitude short waves will eject inland out of this large trof with the first to impact our CWA arriving Fri night. High clouds out ahead of this trof are just beginning to spread into the nwrn CWA and will increase through tonight. The high clouds remain extensive through most of tomorrow and winds increase as the short wave starts moving inland. Low amplitude short wave ridging arrives on Sat and precip ends. The GFS brings the long wave inland on Mon and pushes a fairly well defined cold front thru the CWA with better precip over the north.
654 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Very quiet weather for the next 24 hours as high pressure slides east across the region. High pressure will slide east Friday as cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies results in a low pressure system tracking across southern Canada Friday night. Broad, strong southerly flow throughout the boundary layer up to the mid levels will bring warmer and more humid air northward to the Upper Midwest this weekend. It may be a bit warmer than currently forecast depending how deep we do mix.
Although the surface layer will fail to deepen much today, the low clouds will eventually scatter out this afternoon. /ISSUED 339 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/ Surface observations and radar data indicate the cold front is still slowly moving through our far south and southeastern counties this morning. upper ridging is in place overhead currently. moisture above the cooler surface air and an increase in mid-level moisture from the west will mean skies should remain mostly cloudy today. Precipitation will end quickly from west to east on Friday with skies clearing by afternoon and temperatures quickly rebounding into the low to mid 80s. Upper ridging will build back in across much of the Southern U.
1245 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will move across the region today accompany by a period of showers.
711 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Warmer through the rest of the work week as an area of high pressure over the mid-Mississippi river valley builds east towards the lower Great Lakes region, resulting in warm southwest flow across the upper Midwest. Highs in the mid 40s (tip of the MN Arrowhead) to low 50s (north-central MN) today, warmer Friday in the mid 50s to near 60. However, as the low-mid level ridge axis moves east across Minnesota into Wisconsin this morning the drier air will build eastwards resulting in sunny skies by mid morning.
625 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Clear skies and light winds have led to temperatures falling below freezing in many locations this morning and others still approaching the freezing mark. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates upper- level trough across the western Great Lakes, with upper low also beginning to lower heights in the Pacific Northwest. Cold front at 850mb extended from low near Hudson Bay through MI/IL/MO/OK and into southwest TX.
1112 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will pass through the commonwealth through this afternoon.
955 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 A cold front to the northwest has stalled southeast of Dallas this morning and our region remains in the warmer air mass. Dry air is seen over the region as moisture streams over the top of a ridge acrs nrn Mexico. At the sfc, a cold front extends fm cntl AR swwd toward cntl TX. Ahead of the front, winds are nearly calm acrs the area courtesy of weak ridging, and combined with mostly clr skies, are allowing for the development of areas of fog. The front will meander and weaken over N LA through Friday, allowing for a reinforcing ridge of high pres to build south.
100 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 A moisture-starved cold front will cross NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. Attendant cold front that now stretches from the eastern Great Lakes SWWD through the Lower MS valley will move SEWD through Central NC this evening and into the overnight hours.
742 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 850mb temps are currently around -6C with NW to W low level flow as SFC ridging is moving in from the west. Most of the precip is rain, with potential for some snow mixing in as a few showers move over the higher terrain of the west half. With winds turning more westerly and a ridge coming in, expected isolated lake effect rain shower across the Keweenaw into this afternoon and isolated to scattered showers over far northeastern Upper MI into early this evening. As the ridge AK ridge retrogrades to the west and the ne Pacific trough develops toward AK, downstream a ridge will move into the west with a trough into the cntrl CONUS.
Temperatures will be below normal across the eastern plains of New Mexico today thanks to the cold front that pushed through yesterday.
Weak high pressure builds ino the area today providing drier conditions.
Beginning Friday, a zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across northern Arizona as a large, broad trough develops over the western United States.
Moisture is slowly on the increase as the upper high over the Gulf builds east and the surface front gradually moves into the northwest Delta. Dewpoints should mix out into the lower 50s in the east while better moisture with PW's are beginning to move into our west. Ahead of the boundary there were a few weak upper waves that pass, aiding in convection development along the lower end of the boundary. Clouds may keep areas from Crossett to Cleveland slightly cooler than they have been for the past few days.
Pressure gradient has started to ease up a little over the area and will continue today as high pressure to the north weakens and TC Nicole pulls farther away. See the High Surf Advisory/Coastal Flood Advisory for details.
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Latest 08z surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa. Temperatures have fallen into the lower to middle 40s across the forecast area.
914 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will approach from the eastern Great Lakes today bringing some showers to our area as it crosses the region.
With the cooler temps we could see fog tomorrow night, but will wait to see how temperatures respond behind the front before we start to determine visibilities overnight.
Satellite imagery shows a strong region of low pressure centered over the northeast Pacific with another region of low pressure centered over Hudson Bay. Further south over subtropical latitudes there is a broad region of high pressure with one area centered over the Gulf of Mexico and another centered west of the Baja peninsula. The models continue to show waxing and waning of the high pressure influence over our area as systems eject inland from the northeast Pacific.
Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the lower 80s. Updated the zone forecast this morning to include a breezy descriptor and nudge our advertised winds a little based on the latest observations and the low level winds sampled through the lowest layers from our morning sounding.
1126 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Expect a weak cold front currently bisecting the ArkLaTex region to remain near stationary through Friday morning. /issued 714 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/ For the 13/12z TAFs, a cold front will become stationary across the area early in the period. Scattered convection has already developed along the front and additional development will occur periodically over the next 24 hours as an upper trough approaches from the west. With high pressure to the east, southerly flow to maintain warm conditions with high temperatures in the mid 80s and low temperatures around 70.
1006 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon providing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Cdfnt has pushed through the fa, turning winds to the NNW and bringing in cooler air.
634 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Arctic High pressure will begin retreating eastward off the coast today. Although still cold, lows tonight will range from the middle 30s north, to the lower 40s south. Warm advection continues on southerly winds, so warmer nights and temperatures above normal Wednesday afternoon, with readings in the low to mid 60s north and central, and possibly around 70 in the south Midlands/CSRA.
An upper level trough will move from the Western Plains northeast across the Northeastern quarter of the nation through the forecast period. The layer will start out overcast but should develop some breaks through the middle part of the day; especially at tri where some downsloping could eradicate the lower layer for several hours into the early evening.
Main portion of the upper trough was exiting Colorado early this morning, though strong upper level jet/plentiful moisture and numerous trailing disturbances will keep snow and wind going today and tonight. Will keep Winter Storm Warning in place for the Continental Divide until expiration at 18z, as radar/obs/mesoscale models suggest a few more hours of snow and wind over the higher elevations. Mild and breezy to windy conditions are forecast by all models across the lower elevations. Snow amounts will be in the high end advisory to low end warning categories.
A cold front attached to the low will drag through the mid state during the afternoon and evening, bringing widespread showers and MVFR/IFR cigs to the area.
Another trough will swing through the southern Canadian Prairies while another PAC NW low starts to take shape which you will read about in the extended discussion. Temps will be in the low to mid 70s on the Caprock and warmer to the east off the Caprock, to near 80.
Skycover also updated as subsidence/ clearing spreads in behind the departing shrtwv trof. Ahead of the band and initially as the rain moves in, temperatures are near or just a bit below freezing. The main concern for this period will be the current rain/freezing rain situation. With the band, there has been a brief period of freezing rain before temperatures warm above freezing. The area most likely to see more freezing rain will be the northeast part of the forecast area. The GFS is quite a bit further south and east of the local area than the EC with the progression of the aforementioned upper level low across the southwest. expect a blast of cold air to rapidly track across the local area to start the extended periods on Wednesday as a strong cold front races across the local area.
Surface analysis this morning places a 994 mb area of low pressure over Central Kansas while a 1037 mb ridge of arctic high pressure is centered along the Mid-Atlantic States. The tightening pressure gradient associated with this low will result in sustained winds between 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph across the entire Mid South. Short term models indicate a trailing cold front will drop into the Mid South tonight but become nearly quasi-stationary as it becomes nearly parallel to southwest upper level flow aloft. This front is expected to retreat back north as a warm front on Wednesday with chances for rain showers persisting.
A winter weather advisory remains in effect for elevations above 1000 feet in Douglas County, where colder air at the surface is overlaid by colder air aloft, supporting cooler temperatures and still some snowfall in places like Camas Valley and Barton Road. Also of note, it is above freezing in many of the East Side valleys this morning, and, with the later arrival of precipitation at Mount Shasta, we expect snow impacts there to be above about 4,000 feet.
612 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 A complicated weather picture has developed overnight with strengthening low pressure over southeast Nebraska and a variety of surface fronts at various points near the low. An strong inverted trough axis extends north from the low center into Minnesota and northwest Ontario. Light freezing drizzle was still occurring in a few locations including International Falls and Hibbing. Some of the BR reports from area AWOS sites with lower ceilings are likely freezing drizzle as well. Another trough of low pressure will rotate through the western Great Lakes on Wednesday yielding another round of accumulating snow. Continuing cold air advection aloft and the deepening trough will yield an area of falling heights and frontogenesis over central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Inverted trough off of the east coast is forecast to weaken and lift northward through late day, with surface winds becoming easterly into the afternoon. This onshore flow will continue a gradual warming across the area, with highs back to near normal values in the low 70s. (Previous Discussion) Inverted trough along the coast was slackening the pressure gradient except for the southern waters. The trough will wash out during daytime heating and with rather strong high pressure continuing to the north, east flow will then encompass all of the waters.
313 AM PST Tue Jan 10 2017 Areas of fog this morning may be dense in spots, then partly to mostly cloudy today and a bit cooler.
/issued 438 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/ Temperatures are running some 25-30 degrees warmer or more in some cases this morning compared to 24 hours ago. A quick analysis of the low levels reveals the culprit as increasing southerly winds /aided by a 50kt LLJ at H850/ have led to rapid moisture return area wide with dew points now in the mid 50s at nearly all sites.
A cool and dry airmass was keeping temperatures colder in the 30s over much of interior northwest FL and south central AL early this morning, while slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s were in place near the beaches and into southwest AL/southeast MS, where southeast flow was transporting slightly higher dewpoints northward over these locations. Otherwise, expect increasing cloud cover with highs in the lower to mid 60s over south central AL and the interior northwest FL panhandle, and in the upper 60s to around 70 farther west toward southwest AL and southeast MS.
Well defined warm front, across Northern CA/NV this morning, will shift north early this afternoon bringing more widespread precipitation. The northern zones along with the mountains will see snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the lower valleys and 4 to 8 in the mountains. The warm front lifts north late Tuesday night which will be followed by a weak trough passage on Wednesday afternoon which should bring light snow showers to the region.
1022 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A coastal trough will brush the region today into tonight.
544 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 Latest 08z surface analysis shows low pressure developing over southern Nebraska and northern Kansas with warm front extending into southern Iowa and northern Missouri. will be trending toward a warmer solution. This would result in a wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow across the southern forecast area this morning. especially in the higher terrain and open areas.