Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The remaining showers from the cold front have moved east of I-65 and are pushing northeast. Overnight low temperatures will range from the middle 40s where it is clear to the lower 50s along the Plateau with the cloud cover. Even after the rain clears out the low clouds will hang around.
NW flow in wake of trof axis is very dry and VFR wx will prevail.
Surface cold front continues to move away from the terminals and lingering low clouds with MVFR ceilings at KLFT/KARA will be lifting by 22/03Z. Surface observations showing cold front about to advance across the Lafayette area and will be exiting Acadiana by late this afternoon.
East Pacific upper ridge is nudging in over the coast for some modest warming.
/issued 239 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ The trough axis that passed to our east overnight bringing severe weather in Dallas has resulted in northwest flow aloft, with max temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will ease quickly after sunset this evening which will help cool most locations on the Caprock into the 30s, and locations off the Caprock mostly falling into the low 40s.
With low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure to our southwest today, the pressure gradient will be fairly tight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio river valleys. With the high southeast of our region on Wednesday, winds will shift back to the south to southwest. This will result in warmer conditions, with temperatures rebounding back to seasonal values for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Deterministic models differ in the handling of the trof digging into the southern Plains/sw U.
Rain along and ahead of a cold front currently moving into central Ohio will continue to progress east across the forecast area this morning. The front will complete it's passage around mid afternoon followed by building high pressure behind the front. Cloud cover will decrease as drier air works in and temperatures will see a relatively small diurnal change as CAA behind the front helps keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
From Wednesday into Wednesday evening, a low pressure system will move quickly east southeast across Iowa.
108 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front will sweep east though the Ohio Valley overnight, bringing showers and gusty winds. Cooler and blustery conditions will occur on Tuesday as strong low pressure persists over Ontario. High pressure over the middle Tennessee Valley will build in on Wednesday, offering dry weather and near seasonable temperatures.
Breezy conditions will prevail in the wake of a cold front pushing through the forecast area tonight which will persist into Tuesday afternoon.
301 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Radar imagery this morning shows light rain continues over our eastern counties in association with the cold front that moved through the area yesterday.
A gradual warm up is likely today as a light northwest downslope flow becomes more westerly across much of western Kansas later this afternoon as lee side troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado. This will draw slightly warmer air into the area pushing H85 temperatures well up into the upper single digits(C) in central Kansas to near 12C near and along the Colorado border. Wednesday begins a pattern shift with a cold front moving south through the area, the timing of which still is quite uncertain.
/issued 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ A relatively quiet day Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures expected. Southerly winds will return by Wednesday and become breezy ahead of the next cold front that is expected to move across the region. The cold front will bring colder, drier air to the region on breezy northerly winds. Meanwhile, the Canadian and ECMWF continues to show a closed low developing that moves slowly across the southern Plains which would lead to a longer period of precipitation chances.
257 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb height RAP analysis showed a strong low pressure system over eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin overnight. As this disturbance slowly shifted northeast, ridging persisted along the west coast, keeping the High Plains under northwest flow. Skies were mostly clear across the tri-state region on the backside of the departing trough. This flow helps temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s this afternoon under sunny skies. A cold front pushes across the forecast area on Wednesday, causing a range in high temperatures from the mid 50s in Yuma County, Colorado to the mid 60s in Graham County, Kansas. The upper trough associated with this system swings southeast from the Central Rockies to the Plains, generating light rain chances as early as the mid afternoon hours in eastern Colorado.
256 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure system now centered over WI, with winds finally settling down across the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows fast northwest flow across the region, with a low pressure system along the BC coast. Trailing cold front will push through the area overnight and early Wednesday, bringing some colder air into the area by morning.
1026 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Skies continue to slowly clear from west to east with the cold front now east of south cntl LA. Low clouds remain acrs Acadiana, with the backside of the high clouds extending roughly from Marksville to Cameron. Temperatures should continue to fall as cooler air moves into the region, with lows falling to around 50 north with middle 50s south. Surface cold front continues to move away from the terminals and lingering low clouds with MVFR ceilings at KLFT/KARA will be lifting by 22/03Z. Surface observations showing cold front about to advance across the Lafayette area and will be exiting Acadiana by late this afternoon.
WV imagery indicates an amplified upper level trough of low pressure shifting eastward across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is slowly strengthening across eastern Colorado. As temperatures fall tonight under the clear sky conditions, models are fairly uniform in forecasting upper 20s to low 30s in the westernmost counties, and the mid and upper 30s across the lower plains/central Kansas counties for Tuesday morning lows. Much the same of a temperature-wise day is expected on Tuesday, with a largely homogeneous airmass across the region - about 5 degrees warmer than Today. Wednesday begins a pattern shift with a cold front moving south through the area, the timing of which still is quite uncertain.
Clear and calm conditions are the rule tonight as high pressure remains overhead.
111 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A line of showers along a cold front will be crossing the area through the night.
High pressure in the wake of today's front will bring dry, pleasant wx to the area through midweek. A gradual return of Gulf moisture is expected Wednesday night as the high moves off to the east and onshore winds resume.
Cooler and much drier air conts to advect into the area, with predawn temps in the 50s. S/SW winds wl return on Wed, as the high center works to the E of the FA, allowing temps to moderate close to seasonal norms. Unsettled wx returns beyond this PD as a new cold front affects the region.
Winds will begin to die down this evening, but the relief is only brief as a quick clipper system ahead of an upper level trough will lead to wind gusts greater than 30 mph Wednesday afternoon.
1027 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A strong, negatively-tilted longwave trough will be the main driver of weather over the next 36 hours. After sunrise, temperatures warm to above freezing, minimizing the impact of any light snow. The rest of the work week will be characterized by dry weather, cooler than normal conditions, and light winds. Dry northwesterly flow aloft and subtle ridging reign.
As the upper low propagates into the northern Great Lakes and eventually Hudson Bay, anticipate clearing to gradually shift eastward.
/issued 1026 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ Skies continue to slowly clear from west to east with the cold front now east of south cntl LA. Low clouds remain acrs Acadiana, with the backside of the high clouds extending roughly from Marksville to Cameron. Temperatures should continue to fall as cooler air moves into the region, with lows falling to around 50 north with middle 50s south. Surface observations showing cold front about to advance across the Lafayette area and will be exiting Acadiana by late this afternoon.
The upper level low continues to move to the northeast this afternoon and evening. As the low moves away, clouds should decrease and pull out of the area. There will be sunshine and warm advection, so temperatures should be around 10 degrees warmer than today. The warm advection will continue into Tuesday night, but during the night there is expected to be a cold front. Wednesday will be a little cooler.
Highs in the low to mid 50s. Upstream shra within backlash low-mid level moisture plume along srn flank of deep cyclone over wrn WI will lift out through nrn/nwrn zones later this morning before transitioning to lake effect shra this aftn tied to maximizing low level thermal trough. Secondary bifurcating upstream sw disturbance quickly tucks ewd through base of departing upper low and will shear out across the lakes Wed night while more sig portion of this wave breaks and digs into the srn plains Thu. Thereafter sharp srn plains sw trough will kick out ne through the ern OH valley with a similar downstream response within sw-ne oriented baroclinic zone. Strong gradient to remain over the area as vertically stacked low pressure slowly makes its way through the northern great lakes region.
High pressure aloft will expand east across the western states late in the week.
1239 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front will bring rain and gusty wind through mid afternoon. Surface cold front will complete it's passage around mid afternoon today followed by building high pressure behind the front.
By Wednesday morning, the ridge of high pressure will move east of the area with a cold front moving into the central Plains.
So hedged a bit cooler tonight to account for that. Hedged warmer on guidance. Wednesday-Wednesday night: Cold front will likely move across about two thirds of the area during the day. With the cooler temperatures aloft, some chance that if precipitation occurs in far northwest, the rain may mix with some snow. Do not expect any impacts given surface and soil temperatures, in addition to the low confidence that precipitation will in fact occur in that area.
High pressure over the region is anticipated to slowly migrate eastward through tomorrow. Wind speeds will be mostly light and variable in direction during this time as high pressure meanders eastward.
These showers appeared to be developing, partially in response to greater upglide in the 295-300K region, and forcing associated with a cold front gradually approaching from the west. The overall pattern should continue to improve going into the Tue/Wed time frame, as a strong dome of high pressure out of the srn Plains builds ewd into much of the region. Overall temps are xpcted to be near seasonal thru mid week, with afternoon highs both Tue/Wed in the upper 60s/near 70F and lows Tue night in the lower 40s/around 40F. High pressure will then move east of the mid TN Valley going into the end of the work week, with a slight warming trend developing on Thu. A cold front will move across the area during the overnight.
A gradual warm up is likely today as a light northwest downslope flow becomes more westerly across much of western Kansas later this afternoon as lee side troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado. This will draw slightly warmer air into the area pushing H85 temperatures well up into the upper single digits(C) in central Kansas to near 12C near and along the Colorado border.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer. Gusty winds will return Tuesday afternoon in the higher elevations.
100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A cold front will bring rain and gusty wind through mid afternoon. Surface cold front will complete it's passage around mid afternoon today followed by building high pressure behind the front.
Skies will be mostly sunny however temps will likely only reach the low to mid 60s for highs given the cool advection. This should allow for temps to drop off into the upper 30s in the cooler spots and the low 40s elsewhere. Very broad troughing aloft will reside across much of the nation Wed (almost zonal flow), with W to SW flow aloft across the OH Valley. Solutions range from a progressive open trough advancing eastward across the OH Valley Fri and Sat, to a much slower closed low forming across the southwestern U.
300 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 High pressure will slide to the south of the area through tonight, keeping a modestly tight pressure gradient across the area, resulting in good mixing today under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be cooler than normal today with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 60s. Southerly winds and some mixing tonight will keep lows in the low to mid 40s, with a few spots across the eastern Ozarks hitting the upper 30s. As the high continues to slide well southeast of the area Wednesday, warm advection on breezy south to southwest winds will push temperatures back up to slightly above seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A strong low pressure system will continue to track east this afternoon across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Winds and near critical fire conditions will be the primary concerns as the low continues to progress eastward. Upper level trough will continue to progress east on Tuesday with northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State region. Thu-Sat: In this period, the 00Z GFS/ECMWF vary considerably with regard to the evolution of an upper level trough over the central CONUS. The GFS suggests that the aforementioned trough will bodily progress eastward from the Central/Southern Plains through the MS River Valley, while the ECMWF depicts more of a split-flow type scenario -- with a cut-off low meandering over portions of the Desert Southwest and Southern/Central Plains.
222 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Early morning analysis showed a vertically stacked low pressure system continuing to spin over southeast Minnesota/west-central Wisconsin, with light showers wrapping around and into the forecast area. The low will progress to the northeast through the day bringing strong winds with it. Otherwise, expect showers to slowly move off to the northeast through the day as the low continues progress that direction, with the area becoming completely dry by late this evening. Temperatures will also be much cooler behind the low, with highs today in the mid to upper 40s. As far as precip type, expecting mainly rain, though could see a few snowflakes mix in wherever precip is lingering during the evening hours as temperatures cool into the lower to mid 30s.
A line of showers along a surface cold front will continue its eastward sweep across the area over the next few hours, exiting our eastern fringes around 14Z. Ahead of the front, winds in the higher elevations have been below advisory criteria for the last few hours, and as they are expected to remain so, the wind advisory will be cancelled. Tonight, we will have clear skies as high pressure builds in. Some moutain locations will likely drop below freezing, with most of the Valley in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The remaining showers from the cold front have moved east of I-65 and are pushing northeast. Overnight low temperatures will range from the middle 40s where it is clear to the lower 50s along the Plateau with the cloud cover.
/Today through Wednesday Night/ Strong nwly flow aloft now in place across the wrn two-thirds of the CONUS in the wake of a deep upper trof.
Wednesday will be a bit warmer as southwest winds return at the surface.
ABM MVFR conditions should last for just a couple more hours as a cold front and showers cross the area. A line of showers along a surface cold front will continue its eastward sweep across the area over the next few hours, exiting our eastern fringes around 14Z. Ahead of the front, winds in the higher elevations have been below advisory criteria for the last few hours, and as they are expected to remain so, the wind advisory will be cancelled. Tonight, we will have clear skies as high pressure builds in. Some mountain locations will likely drop below freezing, with most of the Valley in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
625 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 12Z TAF cycle, as high pressure continues to build in at the sfc. /Today through Wednesday Night/ Strong nwly flow aloft now in place across the wrn two-thirds of the CONUS in the wake of a deep upper trof.
402 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Eastern Pacific upper ridge will keep persistent NW aloft over our area through Wednesday.
Rain along and ahead of a cold front currently moving into central Ohio will continue to progress east across the forecast area this morning. The front will complete it's passage around mid afternoon followed by building high pressure and drier air behind the front, which will aid in decreasing cloud coverage. Temperature will see a relatively small diurnal change as CAA behind the front helps keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure will linger over South Florida this afternoon and tonight.
256 AM PDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Strengthening high pressure off of the Pacific Coast will bring decreasing winds and a warming trend through today.
/issued 402 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ Eastern Pacific upper ridge will keep persistent NW aloft over our area through Wednesday.
With snow levels up over 6000-7000 ft, all but the higher peaks will see rain. High pressure building across the Pacific Northwest will result in a northerly flow across the northern Rockies. Expect cooler air from Alberta entering western Montana with some scattered snow showers along the continental divide. This will be short lived as high pressure will move its way over the northern Rockies.
Somewhat variable winds this morning will become westerly/southwesterly today and southerly tonight as an area of high pressure moves past the area.
High pressure will slide to the south of the area through tonight, keeping a modestly tight pressure gradient across the area, resulting in good mixing today under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be cooler than normal today with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 60s. Southerly winds and some mixing tonight will keep lows in the low to mid 40s, with a few spots across the eastern Ozarks hitting the upper 30s. As the high continues to slide well southeast of the area Wednesday, warm advection on breezy south to southwest winds will push temperatures back up to slightly above seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
522 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure system now centered over WI, with winds finally settling down across the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows fast northwest flow across the region, with a low pressure system along the BC coast. Trailing cold front will push through the area overnight and early Wednesday, bringing some colder air into the area by morning.
Warmer. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, with numbers mainly in the 75 to 80 range. Then, lows tonight back in the 50s look likely, as winds from the south bring warmer air into West Central Texas.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
405 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 The low pressure system that has been impacting much of the plains for the last couple of days is now over western WI with the upper low becoming negatively tilted into eastern MN. Surface ridging has developed over the Rockies extending southeast into OK and TX. Highs will moderate in the upper 50s to low 60s with lows falling back to the low 40s.
/issued 625 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/ VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 12Z TAF cycle, as high pressure continues to build in at the sfc. /Today through Wednesday Night/ Strong nwly flow aloft now in place across the wrn two-thirds of the CONUS in the wake of a deep upper trof.
Clouds, scattered showers, strong winds, and cooler temperatures will persist through the day as a strong low passes by to the north. Any lingering showers will wind down this evening as the low continues to pull away to the north. Went a little cooler with overnight lows in the southwest as a result, though winds should remain strong enough to inhibit significant radiational cooling.
This was the result of a strong upper level low that was lumbering out of the area this morning. This low will continue to move out of the area today and it will drive the short term weather. The large upper level low is forecast to move north northeast through the day. As this low moves out of the area, the chances for rain, windy conditions and cloudy skies will go with it. Overall there is good agreement in timing with largescale models on this low moving out of the area. Overall flow brings in warmer H85 temps and thus we see a warm up into the weekend where highs in the 50s and even low 60s will be possible late in the weekend. This will lead to cooler high temps as we head into the end of October.
Today will be warmer with the rise in 500 mb heights and with 700 mb temperatures near -3 Celsius, yielding high temperatures in the 50s east of I-25. Considerably colder in the wake of the cold frontal passage, and with moist cyclonic flow aloft, will see scattered to numerous mostly snow showers. Colder night compared to the previous night in the colder airmass and with decreasing chances for snow showers in the wake of the trough aloft passage.
Some light snow indicated at observing sites east of the Continental Divide resulting from orographic lift which can be assumed to be occurring over the ridges comprising the Divide as well. Models carry the cold front mentioned in the short term discussion across the southern half of the forecast area Wednesday night and spread snow showers into the San Juan Mountains late in the night.
Meanwhile, GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate an upper level trough axis located over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower to middle 50s.
829 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Drier air has arrived in the wake of the cold front that progressed through the region yesterday. Lows should be a bit warmer as a result, only dropping into the 40 to 45 degree range.
This will leave the local area between the main area of low pressure across the Great Lakes region and weak high pressure to our west. opted towards the warmer side of guidance. An upper level low pressure system will descend south across the intermountain west to start the extended periods.
Radar imagery this morning shows light rain continues over our eastern counties in association with the cold front that moved through the area yesterday.
713 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 MVFR conditions should last for just a couple more hours as a cold front and showers cross the area.
A deep layered western Atlantic anticyclone aligned across South Florida to along the north coast of the island Cuba, will slowly lift northward over the next several days. Meanwhile, low level east winds will be on the increase while a fairly deep trough approaches our region from the Southwest Atlantic Ocean.
534 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb height RAP analysis showed a strong low pressure system over eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin overnight. As this disturbance slowly shifted northeast, ridging persisted along the west coast, keeping the High Plains under northwest flow. Skies were mostly clear across the tri-state region on the backside of the departing trough. This flow helps temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s this afternoon under sunny skies. A cold front pushes across the forecast area on Wednesday, causing a range in high temperatures from the mid 50s in Yuma County, Colorado to the mid 60s in Graham County, Kansas. The upper trough associated with this system swings southeast from the Central Rockies to the Plains, generating light rain chances as early as the mid afternoon hours in eastern Colorado.