Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level low pressure over far eastern Canada along with another upper level system dropping south into the Hudson Bay region will keep a long wave trough through the Great Lakes region and keep northerly flow over Iowa through the weekend.
while an elongated trough aloft extending all the way from the northeast to the far southwest U. The the pressure gradient supporting the gusty northwest winds across the forecast area today will remain at the surface with subsidence expected aloft in the wake of the elongated upper trough moving south of the forecast area on Friday.
Surface cold front continued to press south across north-central Florida this evening trailed by a fading thin line of post-frontal light showers/drizzle that was across the Ocala National Forest and southern Flagler county this hour. Much cooler and drier low level air air was funneling across the local forecast area under NW flow up to about 900 mb with surface temperatures falling into the 50s across much of the area. Low temperatures will fall into the low/mid 40s inland to low/mid 50s coast.
High pressure will dominate the area through tomorrow with little to no clouds expected. The ridge axis will be located south of the CWA leading to continued northwest winds across western Kansas. Highs tomorrow will generally reach into the lower 40s.
Colder NW flow is establishing behind a secondary cold front that passed late this afternoon.
1039 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will cross the region bringing cooler temperatures and some gusty winds to northern New England for tomorrow. As northwest winds increase, upslope snow showers will develop over the higher terrain. Temperatures will start to fall this afternoon and continue to fall overnight as a cold front moves through. with the highest gusts in the mountains but most areas should see around 25mph from the northwest. As is typical with a cold front expect upslope snow showers to continue throughout the day in northern New Hampshire and along the Canadian border.
Light and mainly northeast winds overnight will be reinforced on Friday as a weak cold front moves through the area,. Temperatures on Friday will be a little cooler than today as some mid and high clouds develop across the area by afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to around 50 across the Big Country, to the lower 50s elsewhere.
A strong long wave ridge near the west coast will be the dominant factor in the weather into this weekend. This will make for relatively warm conditions over the ridges under mostly clear skies with low level easterly flow. inversions will keep it cooler with areas of overnight low clouds and fog that may last into the afternoon in some areas.
942 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A series of low pressure troughs will bring colder temperatures and occasional snow showers through the weekend. Accumulations outside of the ridges will be minimal with surface temperatures still above freezing across much of the forecast area. Orographic lift and moisture in the snow growth region over the ridges have yielded up to 2 inches thus far across the ridges and an additional 2 inches is expected the remainder of the night. Orographic lifting with continued saturation in the snow growth region should result in an additional few inches of snow in the ridges, with only minor accumulations elsewhere.
744 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will cross the region early tonight.
Passage of a weak trough may yield some renewed snow shower activity on Friday. Any accumulation potential limited by continued warmer surface temperatures /DTW observation shows 37 degrees at 23z/.
High pressure building into the region with dry conditions in the low levels and a northerly flow through the period. Only clouds will be of the high variety, and these should be thinning out during the evening hours. /issued 346 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Pacific NW ridging sewd through the Rockies and srn Plains to the wrn Gulf Coast region. while much cooler temps mostly in the 50s have been reported. Main story will be the cooler air as the continental high builds over.
Upper level analysis places ridge building over the west coast with broad trough over the Great Lakes stretching southeastward. quiet weather is expected as ridge over the west coast builds. ridge to the west continues to strengthen with warmer airmass shifting into the region.
631 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The low clouds have cleared out of the Grand Forks area now and they should clear out of the Fargo area in the next hour, if current trends continue. Main 500 mb trough moving south of the fcst area and a temporary 500 mb ridge and drier air at 850 mb is moving southeast. Question becomes how far east will it get? RRV and west should start out the day with some sunshine before additional stratocu drops south into NE ND and NW MN Friday aftn assoc with next 500 mb trough.
Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. While there will be accumulating snow at one time or another over most of the area, most will be relegated to the mountains while the lowlands could see minor nocturnal accumulations - a dusting or so. Still have only light, generally little to no accumulation across the lowlands, and light to moderate accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain. Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.
At this point, any mention of snow flurries would be premature, given the low probability of the event.
Warm air advection over the area will bring us warmer temperatures (upper 40s to mid 50s) and a strong pressure gradient will help increase our winds as well.
These factors will keep temperatures a bit warmer (32 to 37 degrees) than guidance in some locations.
A few tenths of an inch possible across portions of SWVA and the higher elevations of NETN. Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 45 29 46 / 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 43 29 43 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 33 42 29 44 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 39 26 38 / 20 20 30 10.
Water Vapor satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level low located over Quebec. low level wrap around moisture associated with this low is producing a 2500-3500 ft deck of clouds over portions of the Mid-South, especially north of I-40.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating Rockies lee-side ridging, while broad cyclonic flow was draped down acrs much of the mid/ upper MS RVR Valley and GRT LKS. Aloft, large long wave trof complex continued to occupy much of the CONUS. Hopefully this won't turn into more a freezing drizzle scenario as opposed to flurries. But H85 MB cold pool also fcst to maximize/advect acrs the area late tonight into Fri morning, helping the cooler low temp cause. Even with some breaks in the cloud cover, will still go with highs only in the upper 20s to around 30 with expected cooler start to the day.
832 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will cross the region bringing cooler temperatures and some gusty winds to northern New England for tomorrow. As northwest winds increase, upslope snow showers will develop over the higher terrain. Temperatures will start to fall this afternoon and continue to fall overnight as a cold front moves through. with the highest gusts in the mountains but most areas should see around 25mph from the northwest. As is typical with a cold front expect upslope snow showers to continue throughout the day in northern New Hampshire and along the Canadian border.
/27/ Prior discussion below: Through tomorrow afternoon: Definitely a cooler day across the region than has been the case lately, although plenty of sunshine has still made it rather pleasant outdoors (for late January). Despite this, temperatures will likely get down freezing (or a little below) for locations along and north of the I-20 corridor while areas to the south probably remain at least a little above freezing. There should be a few more high clouds around tomorrow, possibility extending a little further than today, as clipper-type upper trough energy approaches from the northwest. Most locations can anticipate a slightly cooler day than today with enough wind to impart a bit of a wind chill at times.
Strong high pressure aloft will lock in over the west coast states Friday, then expand east across the Great Basin this weekend.
Also, cant rule out some MVFR stratus as cold front creeps through the region Friday into the afternoon. /issued 456 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017/ Late this afternoon through tonight: Water vapor imagery indicates a broad trough draped along the eastern CONUS with upper level moisture streaming from west to east across Florida. Weak ridging (creating subsidence), southwest low level flow , and clear skies have helped to create very warm conditions across the CWA this afternoon. The SREF model pegs south of Lake Okeechobee for the highest chances of fog, with vis falling well below 3 SM.
Clouds may hang around the higher elevations of the coteau a bit longer, but are still expected to clear out by morning. Upper ridge actually folds over from the north overnight and during the day Friday, with weak warm air advection developing and increasing winds.
a weak 500mb ridge over the Great Lakes from this morning will erode, as a 500mb wave slowly drops south into the region. 500/300mb qvectors show the best convergence with the upper trough moving over nrn mi into the evening before diminishing overnight.
/EC/ Through tomorrow afternoon: Definitely a cooler day across the region than has been the case lately, although plenty of sunshine has still made it rather pleasant outdoors (for late January). Despite this, temperatures will likely get down freezing (or a little below) for locations along and north of the I-20 corridor while areas to the south probably remain at least a little above freezing. There should be a few more high clouds around tomorrow, possibility extending a little further than today, as clipper-type upper trough energy approaches from the northwest. Most locations can anticipate a slightly cooler day than today with enough wind to impart a bit of a wind chill at times.
Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. Even with surface temps at 36, dew points are in the upper 20s and freezing level is below 1K feet so all ob sites have changed to snow showers and should remain that way here on out. While there will be accumulating snow at one time or another over most of the area, most will be relegated to the mountains while the lowlands could see minor nocturnal accumulations - a dusting or so. Still have only light, generally little to no accumulation across the lowlands, and light to moderate accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain. Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.
A short wave barely noticable in water vapor imagery continues to drop through the NW flow with the long wave trough. Upper level low pressure over far eastern Canada along with another upper level system dropping south into the Hudson Bay region will keep a long wave trough through the Great Lakes region and keep northerly flow over Iowa through the weekend.
Rain chances return Friday afternoon as moisture begins to increase courtesy of onshore flow ahead of a deep 500 mb trough approaching from the west.
Temps tonight could bottom out around the freezing mark for a majority of the area.
Still looks like the low level clouds to the east will scour out overnight, just leaving patches of mid and high level clouds around late tonight into Friday. Once the low clouds exit off to the east, any flurries should also end. Main 500 mb trough moving south of the fcst area and a temporary 500 mb ridge and drier air at 850 mb is moving southeast. Question becomes how far east will it get? RRV and west should start out the day with some sunshine before additional stratocu drops south into NE ND and NW MN Friday aftn assoc with next 500 mb trough.
We are under the influence under a large upper trough that encompasses most of North America east of the Rockies. Within this broad trough, there is a positively tilted wave that extends from central California back across MN over the the parent upper low over eastern Canada. However, the big question mark in the short term deals with sky cover trends when you look at what is behind the upper trough in the Canadian Prairies and that is mainly clear skies. Went a little warmer for highs Friday as well as we get into more westerly surface flow and the cold trough over us now slides off to the east as well.
Water vapor indicates the back edge of this trough slowly dropping south through northern Wyoming this afternoon. Much of this will be due to warmer air moving in aloft that will be dramatically stabilizing the atmosphere. Moisture in the prime dendritic layer and ascent from the trough and orographics will allow for light fluffy snow to continue on north facing slopes. Highs on Friday stay below normal but we will begin to see some warning in the mid elevations Friday night as the ridge begins to build into the eastern Great Basin and warmer mid level temperatures continue to rise. So western state ridging transitions to eastern states troughing through the weekend and into mid-week. With ridging overhead the temperature forecast will be a struggle due to valley/basin inversions.
Winds are beginning to increase over the northeast Gulf behind the cold front.
A weak upper trough passage will occur early Fri AM with a stronger one for Sat. Modest wly winds will continue Fri-Sun with wind gusts into the lower 20 knot range at times. Occasional flurries are expected as temperatures slowly drop into the low/mid 20s tonight. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than today, though nothing unusual for late January.
Cirrus clouds to remain mostly near and south of I-10 and lower clouds around backside of ne usa upper low to remain north of I-40. Overnight expect light WNW/NW winds which will cause the temperatures to fall to the low 30s south of I-20 and areas north will be near the upper 20s.
Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the western U. with a deep trough over the rest of the U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon with a ridge off the Ca coast.
An upper level low pressure trough just north of the area will sag southward late tonight and Friday. /issued 301 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017/ An upper level trough extending from a low located over Quebec to the west-southwest across the upper Mississippi Valley to the Four Corners. This trough will sag southward through Friday to a position from the Ohio Valley across the southern High Plains to southeast Arizona and the New Mexico bootheel by end of day tomorrow. Abundant mid level cloud cover ahead of the trough on Friday will limit upward potential for temps.
The freezing level tonight was at 10,800 feet and the -20C level at 21,600 feet. This is expected to allow the lows tonight to flirt with the freezing mark over the far northern areas with mid 30s forecast across the Florida parishes (Baton Rouge area to northshore of tidal lakes) into coastal Mississippi, and upper 30s to lower 40s south of Lake Pontchartrain.
Steep lapse rates will keep the precip mostly if not entirely snow, even when surface temps are solidly above freezing.
Upper ridge actually folds over from the north overnight and during the day Friday, with weak warm air advection developing and increasing winds.
Declined the dewpoint temperatures a few degrees to account for the cooler and drier airmass settling in across the Four-State Region. Cirrus clouds to remain mostly near and south of I-10 and lower clouds around backside of ne usa upper low to remain north of I-40. Overnight, expect light WNW/NW winds which will cause the temperatures to fall to the low 30s south of I-20 and areas north will be near the upper 20s.
Therefore trended toward non bias corrected readings which were cooler, including the GFS MOS which captured some cold air over the deepest snow cover.
Series of upper troughs will be sweeping across the Midwest tonight and Friday, keeping the region generally cloudy and somewhat blustery at times. The troughs will be accompanied by some flurries or light snow showers, but these are expected to be of little consequence. The passage of the trough on Friday morning will be accompanied by a tongue of colder air around -12C at 850 mb, which will result in high temperatures a bit colder than today, mainly in the upper 20s/lower 30s. The longwave pattern will be dominated by an upper level trough in the eastern lower 48, with a ridge in the west.
Light and somewhat variable winds expected this evening then a cold front late tonight will shift winds to the NE but speeds will remain fairly light. /issued 145 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017/ A quiet, cool day across the area today under the influence of a broad upper trough extending across the CONUS, and quasi-zonal flow aloft over the region. A cold front is expected to edge into northern portions of the area late tonight, and slowly push southward on Friday. An east- northeasterly wind shift will accompany the front, along with cooler temperatures.
653 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A series of low pressure troughs will bring colder temperatures and occasional snow showers this afternoon through the weekend. Some rain could also mix in across the lower elevations until sunset. Broad upper troughing should maintain scattered snow showers overnight for much of the area. Orographic lift and moisture in the snow growth region over the ridges should continue to result in more snow with an additional 2-4 inches. Orographic lifting with continued saturation in the snow growth region should result in an additional few inches of snow in the ridges, with only minor accumulations elsewhere.
There is still some light snow fall over the higher mountains. northwest winds across the northeast plain producing an anticyclone into the denver area with weak ely winds.
Overnight lows will be seasonably cool in the lower to middle 20s. Average temperatures can be expected through the weekend, with highs ranging from the lower 30s to middle 40s, with lows mainly in the 20s.
Northerly flow aloft continues over the area but we are transitioning to anticyclonic flow as heights build in association with strong ridge along the Pacific coast.
This is expected to allow the lows tonight to flirt with the freezing mark over the far northern areas with mid 30s forecast across the Florida parishes (Baton Rouge area to northshore of tidal lakes) into coastal Mississippi, and upper 30s to lower 40s south of Lake Pontchartrain.
542 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The upper level short wave trough that brought flurries to parts of central Missouri today will move east of the area this evening. Another short wave trough will then drop southeast across the region on Friday. High temperatures should therefore be a bit warmer with most areas getting into the upper 30s or lower 40s. As multiple short wave troughs pass through the area, there will be a chance for flurries/sprinkles.
Zonal flow aloft will continue tonight into Friday morning over South Texas through the short term, with the base of a east-west oriented trough axis sliding south through the southern Plains and southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in cloud cover west to east Friday along with slightly cooler temperatures than today, especially out west. The east-west oriented trough axis will slide all the way south into South Central Texas Friday night with the right entrance region to a 150kt jet streak in place over the CWA.
Satellite imagery shows clear skies in the western zones and mid- level clouds moving through the southeast as an upper ridge settles over Northeast Montana tonight. Templer Previous discussion - SYNOPTIC SETUP: Short term begins with a trough running from the Intermountain west into the central US plains, the Great Lakes, and Quebec. A ridge is north of that from Washington to southern Alberta and into central Manitoba.
Upper troughing now settling in over the northeastern and north central portions of the U. Tn resides within the base of the troughing with more of a westerly upper level component. However, height values are rather low and caa in the lower levels is ongoing.
Surface cold front just north of Lake and Volusia counties at 8 pm will slide to Okeechobee and the Treasure coast late tonight into early Friday morning. Lows will drop into the mid 50s north and around 60 to the lower 60s across srn sections.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 70s along the Keys and inland locations have dropped to below 70 degrees. High pressure over the central Atlantic extending westward towards the Florida Keys will shift to the east, leaving the local area under a very weak pressure gradient during the overnight and early morning hours. A cold front extending across central Florida this evening will reach the Keys tomorrow Friday. These will increase during tomorrow's afternoon as a cold front marches south and will stay above 10 knots through much of the weekend.
535 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 High pressure that is strengthening over the Great Basin has been teaming with intense low pressure centered over Central Quebec to keep a moderate but persistent NW flow across the Great Plains this afternoon. A sharp upper-deck longwave extending almost due west from the low centered over Quebec to the CA Coast will shift slowly S/SE, reaching the Southern U. Mon-Tue Night: It'll be a very nice start to the work-week as an upper-deck long wave trof deepens rapidly as it surges across the Southeastern U. Wed-Thu: Cooler but dry weather will dominate the region as semi-inverted & strengthening ridging continues to punch SE from the Northern Plains.
A quiet weather pattern continues through the weekend, and it represents quite a departure from the high-impact weather earlier in the month.
559 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 At 3 PM, a trough was moving south through central Minnesota and central Wisconsin. From tonight into Friday morning, a short wave trough will move south through the region. As a result raised the low temperatures by 2 to 4F.
558 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will cross the region bringing cooler temperatures and some gusty winds to northern New England for tomorrow. As northwest winds increase, upslope snow showers will develop over the higher terrain. Temperatures will start to fall this afternoon and continue to fall overnight as a cold front moves through. with the highest gusts in the mountains but most areas should see around 25mph from the northwest. As is typical with a cold front expect upslope snow showers to continue throughout the day in northern New Hampshire and along the Canadian border.
522 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures have returned to the local forecast area this afternoon. expect overnight lows to be a bit cooler than this morning with these near ideal radiational cooling conditions. the winds will increase a bit across the region making it feel a bit cooler than it otherwise would. A ridge of high pressure is expected to amplify across the west coast to start the extended periods making for fast moving northerly flow across the region.
536 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Series of upper troughs will be sweeping across the Midwest tonight and Friday, keeping the region generally cloudy and somewhat blustery at times. The troughs will be accompanied by some flurries or light snow showers, but these are expected to be of little consequence. The passage of the trough on Friday morning will be accompanied by a tongue of colder air around -12C at 850 mb, which will result in high temperatures a bit colder than today, mainly in the upper 20s/lower 30s. The longwave pattern will be dominated by an upper level trough in the eastern lower 48, with a ridge in the west.
41 High pressure will continue to build into the CWA through Friday.