Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Secondary cold front has reached our SE CWA this afternoon. with the initial cold front still stretching from far SE Lower Michigan thru Central Indiana. Several waves continue to develop along the initial cold front. far Northern and NW Lower Michigan to the low to mid 40s in our far SE CWA. There is growing confidence that we will see frost formation in a majority of the forecast area early Sunday morning, especially across the low lying spots.
Scattered showers are starting to develop across the CWA under a broad trough pattern. Temperatures have warmed above freezing across the area this morning, thus have let the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory expire. A broad trough pattern over the areas today will bring isolated to scattered rain showers. Current surface analysis places secondary cold front sliding through the upper midwest, with high settling along the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places low over Hudson Bay, with trough extending off to the southwest. This has kept temperatures up a bit over many locations, but over the areas where a brief period of clearing has occurred, temperatures have dropped either to or a bit below freezing. Thereafter, a bit milder temperatures are expected for the day as a little weak ridging develops.
Forecast Summary: Patchy frost tonight, then warmer on Sunday.
1125 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 Temperatures at the top of the hour are mostly below the freezing mark across the CWA. Regardless, could see clouds begin to clear up before daybreak which could lead to a short window of below freezing temperatures. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today with clouds clearing this morning. Moist southeast flow will increase Sunday morning as increased lift moves over the area along with lee troughing.
WV imagery this afternoon shows convection developing ahead of an upper low over the Columbia River Basin. Models show the upper low moving into central Idaho tomorrow morning bringing about 1 to 3 inches of high- elevation snow to the Central Mountains. The low exits to the southeast Sunday night as skies clear overnight.
A relatively quiet weather pattern is forecast for the upcoming week as ridging builds in from the west.
with a bit greater potential for a few t-storms given warmer temps and a bit more diurnal instability.
Sunday is expected to be about 10 degrees warmer over Saturday, but still well below late May normals (lower 80s). Winds will trend southeast and become elevated/gusty in the afternoon, as high pressure retreats northeastward, and return flow establishes.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s across the region, only adding sufficient instability to the atmosphere to help fuel those thunderstorms. These storms should begin to diminish through the evening hours but additional storms will move into the Delta later this evening along a cold front. With high temperatures climbing into the low/mid 90s, 3000-4000 j/kg of cape and steep mid level lapse rates, some of these storms could be strong to severe this afternoon into early evening. The thunderstorm activity will diminish by mid/late evening, but a cold front will move into the Delta overnight.
An upper level trough axis will progress eastward across the Mississippi Valley region and will be located west of our forecast area today. Afternoon temperatures around 90 degrees to the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s (maybe even mid 70s near the beaches) will result in strong instability with MLCAPE values up to 3000-3500 J/KG, perhaps up to around 4000 J/KG by the afternoon hours.
With CAA slowly moving eastward over us today and tonight, expect highs in the low to mid 50s in the interior and south, and upper 40s near Lake Superior. This will be in conjunction with a deep open mid and lower-level trough over the Great Lakes that morning. Convective sky cover should decrease across the central parts of the UP by early Sunday night as the high pressure shifts nearly overhead.
High pressure off the southeast coast has us under a southerly fetch of tropical moisture.
Temperatures tonight will vary across the region, as the cold front bisects the region.
348 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (Issued 347 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure will build in overnight tonight, leading to a clearing trend from west to east. The cool air mass and clear skies will allow overnight lows to plummet into the low 40s to upper 30s. The high pressure center will move overhead tomorrow, with a mixture of sun, and clouds kicked off by a vortmax over northern WI during the afternoon.
GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 83 66 78 64 / 20 80 70 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 83 64 76 62 / 20 90 70 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 82 62 76 61 / 20 90 60 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 82 62 74 59 / 20 90 60 60 40.
Cold front finally make its way through the area during the daytime hours tomorrow, which will help to keep our high temperatures on the cooler side of things.
630 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Strong late spring cold front that moved through yesterday and overnight has brought a much cooler airmass into the area.
A low pressure system moving out of the Pacific Northwest will keep a chance of rain and snow showers, with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, across the region this weekend with better chances across Southwest Montana.
The low will continue to move north-northeast and as it does it will drag a cold front closer and closer to the forecast area. The associated cold front responsible for the showers and storms is expected to start moving into the forecast area later tonight and quickly pass through before exiting Sunday afternoon. Once the front exits the area late Sunday, high pressure returns the Bluegrass State and drying the region out to start the work week. Short wave energy inbound from southwestern Canada will deepen a trough across the West.
625 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (Through tonight ) Cold front continues to push into far SE OK and NW AR this afternoon An uptick in showers and storms has been observed in the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Settled but cool conditions will prevail Sunday with weak high pressure in control.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front stretches from southeast MO across north central AR down into the ArkLaTex and DFW Metroplex, and will continue to slide east into tonight. Lacy (Tomorrow through Saturday) Settled but cool conditions will prevail Sunday with weak high pressure in control.
Areas that have received precipitation this afternoon have fallen into the upper 70s, while dry areas are generally in the lower 90s.
844 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (Issued 839 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022) The approaching trough axis combined with some weak frontogenesis has resulted in some light returns showing up to our west. It will still be battling some drier air in the lower levels so may end up with just some sprinkles or spotty light rain. Stumpf (Issued 347 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure will build in overnight tonight, leading to a clearing trend from west to east. The cool air mass and clear skies will allow overnight lows to plummet into the low 40s to upper 30s. The high pressure center will move overhead tomorrow, with a mixture of sun, and clouds kicked off by a vortmax over northern WI during the afternoon.
Strong convection continues to sink se across wrn KY this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching our nw counties.
Overnight lows in the lower 70s, with upper 60s possible in rural areas. The western Atlantic ridge is forecast to build over the area on Sunday.
730 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold frontal passage will continue to move through the region.
Temps will continue to fall and still expect readings in the low to mid 30s by morning. Temperatures look to fall back into the low 30s and as a result looking at another night of frost headlines, with this being a more true setup for frost potential. After a cold start to Sunday, westerly surface winds and partly sunny skies, alongside weak 500 hPa ridging are expected to introduce a rapid warm up back into the upper 50s.
A cold front will pass through the area around 12Z for most sites.
While a trough remains aloft over the Gulf of Mexico, the lower to mid level ridge is holding strong across Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent Atlantic. Despite moderate veering through the lower levels, this evenings sounding indicated a healthy inhibitive nose based around ~950 mb with considerable dry air. The continued tropical tap is maintaining late summer conditions with dew points way up in the upper 70s and temperatures in the lower 80s. Short Term Update - The robust surface through lower level ridge will remain steadfast across Florida through the overnight period. This will ensure a much warmer and humid than normal night. A robust ridge across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
The upper trough responsible for the convection will continue to track southeastward across our area. However, the upper trough will continue to support another round of showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the higher elevations of SW Idaho.
531 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 19z surface analysis had high over MT with trough from northeast SD into southeast WY. Water vapour matinee had mean trough over central Canada into the northwest CONUS.
As this system departs high pressure will move in bringing warming temperatures and Spring-like weather for most of the week. Late week, winds pick up as a new upper trough brings cooler weather and perhaps some needed precipitation to NV. Broad trough energy over the inter-mountain west will gradually weaken through Sunday night.
Issued by National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 539 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 A longwave trough remains parked over the Northern Rockies, keeping much cooler than normal temperatures in place. Cloud cover last night kept temperatures slightly warmer than freezing, and the slightly moderating air mass should keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s east of the Divide again tonight. A few sub-freezing reading are certainly possible, so those with sensitive vegetation will certainly want to plan accordingly.
558 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler than normal temperatures expected through much of the week.
824 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 A low pressure system moving out of the Pacific Northwest will keep a chance of rain and snow showers, with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, across the region this weekend with better chances across Southwest Montana.
1020 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 High pressure will slide east of the area overnight as a weak front stalls across the north. Low pressure will lift up to our west on Sunday then pull a strong cold front across the area Sunday evening.
918 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold front will move through the region late tonight into Sunday morning.
Issued by National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 329 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 A longwave trough remains parked over the Northern Rockies, keeping much cooler than normal temperatures in place. Cloud cover last night kept temperatures slightly warmer than freezing, and the slightly moderating air mass should keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s east of the Divide again tonight. A few sub-freezing reading are certainly possible, so those with sensitive vegetation will certainly want to plan accordingly.
630 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a long wave trough traversing into the central and northern plains.
1115 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 High pressure will slide east of the area overnight as a weak front stalls across the north. Low pressure will lift up to our west on Sunday then pull a strong cold front across the area Sunday evening.
403 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 A cold front crosses today, with more storms expected. A cold front arrives over southeast OH around 12Z this morning, moving slowly east across WV through this evening. By tonight, the cold front will be to our east with few lingering light showers in its wake mainly over the mountains.
Shower/tstm chances will diminish as we go into the early morning hours, then we expect convective activity to reinitiate with heating Sunday as the cold front continues to push southeast. As temperatures warm into the 80s, there does remain enough instability for storms to develop but lapse rates are not as steep given warmer air in the mid-levels. Given the increased rain and cloud cover and frontal passage, temperatures will be cooler tomorrow. Highs will reach the mid 70s in the Delta, the lower 80s across central Mississippi and the mid 80s in the Pine Belt.
Winds are expected to become southwest to west in this layer today, so the high clouds should gradually decrease or move east. Beneath the high clouds remains a thin layer of low/mid clouds around 5-7k feet.
353 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 The risk for showers and storms will continue today as a cold front crosses the region.
This precipitation is in advance of the upper trough axis and once that moves through later this morning, the showers will end. A large dome of high pressure will then settle over the Great Lakes and we'll see the clouds scatter out during the late morning and afternoon. Skies will clear tonight and when coupled with the light winds underneath the high, temperatures will fall into the mid 30s over the northern cwa.
Northwesterly flow will bring cooler high latitude continental air mass into the area resulting in temperature reaching only the mid 60s today (about 10F degree negative 2m temperature anomalies).
1001 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 19z surface analysis had high over MT with trough from northeast SD into southeast WY. Water vapour matinee had mean trough over central Canada into the northwest CONUS.
132 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 The risk for showers and storms will continue today as a cold front crosses the region.
This is associated with an advancing cold front which is bisecting the region and will continue to shift SE over the rest of the area this morning.
Issued by National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1047 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 A longwave trough remains parked over the Northern Rockies, keeping much cooler than normal temperatures in place. Cloud cover last night kept temperatures slightly warmer than freezing, and the slightly moderating air mass should keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s east of the Divide again tonight. A few sub-freezing reading are certainly possible, so those with sensitive vegetation will certainly want to plan accordingly.
1237 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 Cooler air will continue to spread over the area accompanied by scattered showers the rest of the night.
1131 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler than normal temperatures expected through much of the week.
Work week outlook: The next sensible weather system is progged to arrive midweek as a high amplitude trough digs into the Central US and propagates northeast over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
300 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Sprawling high pressure was centered in the central Plains providing clear to partly cloudy skies across the dvn cwa. Today and Tonight: Pleasant weather as high pressure from the west settles over the area. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 60s with lows generally in the lower 40s.
Will continue to keep some pops across the cwa for most of the day today as the trough axis passes across the area and diurnal heating should also help to create some instability showers today. On Sunday we couldn't rule out some very light showers or sprinkles with afternoon instability over the south half but dry air in the low levels will prevent a lot of the rain from reaching ground. Sunday will be the coldest night over the next several days as the high pressure moves overhead, winds become light and skies clear. Widespread low in the low 30s can be expected, especially away from the shorelines where frost is likely. Ensembles generally have negative height anomalies with troughing over the central U. Thereafter the troughing looks to kick east with ridging developing over the eastern half of the U.
200 AM PDT Sun May 22 2022 Cooler weather will continue for most areas today with better clearing expected west of the mountains. The beginning of the work week features a large area of high pressure moving across the area. This will bring much warmer conditions for all with night and morning low clouds occurring closer to the coast. A trough of low pressure is expected to come into the western part of the country by the end of the week, which will prompt greater onshore flow and cooler weather.
248 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 High pressure remains off the southeast coast through today.
330 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 A cold front crosses today, with more storms expected. A cold front arrives over southeast OH around 12Z this morning, moving slowly east across WV through this evening. By tonight, the cold front will be to our east with few lingering light showers in its wake mainly over the mountains. Cold front should be to the east of the CWA Sunday night, with just a few lingering showers/storms in its wake, mainly in eastern zones.
Expecting a little warmer day today, despite the cold start, with rising mid level heights. Low freezing levels (7500-8000 feet) will lead to some instability as low levels warm up.
1243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 High pressure will slide east of the area overnight as a weak front stalls across the north. Low pressure will lift up to our west on Sunday then pull a strong cold front across the area Sunday evening.
The weather will remain quiet through the night, with overnight low temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than last night's low in many locations. A relatively quiet weather pattern is forecast for the upcoming week as ridging builds in from the west.
SE low level flow will freshen slightly as a H50-H20 ridge expands westward over south and central FL, minimizing the respectable mid- upper level forced ascent of the past few days. Because of this, have trended POPs up to 50-60 for late this afternoon, closer to the higher numbers, and kept scattered (30-40) early evening POPs near and NW of the I-4 corridor and isolated for the central interior.
Surface obs showed light winds and temperatures a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Today will be on the quiet side, with minor breezes and temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday. This evening and tonight, a weak cold front will work its way southward through the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave Desert, bringing wind gusts up to 35 mph possible in areas prone to northerly winds, and potentially causing issues for any outdoor activities.
1007 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Strong late spring cold front that moved through yesterday and overnight has brought a much cooler airmass into the area.
309 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 Current surface analysis shows slow moving NE-SW oriented cold front is located just to the NW of our area, extending from northwest OH into east-central IN then along the Ohio River through western KY. Otherwise expect mostly dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
306 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 Sun:Drier air moves into the area as a result of the Atlantic Ridge building over Florida. Mon through Sat: The typical seabreeze pattern persists through most of the week as the high pressure ridge remains over the area. The ridge will be pushed out of the area by a frontal boundary moving into the area from the west along an upper level trough. The heat persists throughout the week, and high temperatures will hover around the low to mid 90s for most areas.
Will continue to keep some pops across the cwa for most of the day today as the trough axis passes across the area and diurnal heating should also help to create some instability showers today.
100 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 The risk for showers and storms will continue today as a cold front crosses the region.
1147 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a long wave trough traversing into the central and northern plains.
207 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of a cold front that moves through the region this morning.
A cold front will move across the area overnight into this afternoon, with showers/thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites through much of the period. Shower/tstm chances will diminish as we go into the early morning hours, then we expect convective activity to reinitiate with heating Sunday as the cold front continues to push southeast. As temperatures warm into the 80s, there does remain enough instability for storms to develop but lapse rates are not as steep given warmer air in the mid-levels. Given the increased rain and cloud cover and frontal passage, temperatures will be cooler tomorrow. Highs will reach the mid 70s in the Delta, the lower 80s across central Mississippi and the mid 80s in the Pine Belt.
Weak upper trough will shift east tonight. Weak upper level ridge moving through Sunday.
323 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Evening and early overnight convection is winding down as the cold front pushes ever so closer to Middle TN and is forecast to move through the area during the day. This is a true "cold" front for early summer and afternoon high temperatures today will be noticeable cooler as only in the 70s to around 80.
High pressure centered near Bermuda is maintaining elevated winds across the island chain and coastal waters, and marine observation platforms are recording winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots across the reef. Temperatures are still in the lower 80s and dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s, making for a very muggy morning.
We continue to be located within SW upper level flow as upper ridging remains along the Southeast Coast with a longwave trough across the Central CONUS. A surface cold front stretches SW to NE along the leading edge of this upper trough from Maine to Mexico. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 65 77 65 78 / 80 80 70 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 64 75 63 79 / 80 70 70 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 84 62 75 61 79 / 80 70 60 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 61 71 59 77 / 80 70 70 50 50.
Still some disagreement among the higher resolution models into the morning so confidence is low for any specific solution. The low will continue to move north-northeast and as it does it will drag a cold front closer and closer to the forecast area. The associated cold front responsible for the showers and storms is expected to start moving into the forecast area later tonight and quickly pass through before exiting Sunday afternoon. Once the front exits the area late Sunday, high pressure returns the Bluegrass State and drying the region out to start the work week. Short wave energy inbound from southwestern Canada will deepen a trough across the West.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Larger scale troughing will remain in place across the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes through this period, while larger scale ridging, and a warm and fairly moist/unstable airmass holds across the SE states into the Atlantic.
Only forecast change was to add patchy fog mention around Monterey Bay where some of the high resolution models suggest lower visibilities may develop later tonight towards morning. Today and Sunday: Upper level high pressure lurking offshore continues to inch closer to the coast.
So even with cloud cover highs today look to be a good 7-10 degrees warmer than Saturday.
200 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022 Broad upper trough remains across much of NOAM, with anomalously cold air over much of the northern CONUS. Mostly sunny skies and warmer temps on track today, although clouds will begin to increase west-east this afternoon.
And like yesterday, with the low wet bulb zero temperatures, the main threat from any storm would be small hail.
trough axis will begin to slowly approach our region during the day which will lead to increasing mid and high level clouds through the day. These clouds and cooler airmass will keep temperatures pleasant once again today with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.