Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Another great weather day across the mid state with temps currently in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Northerly flow aloft and light and variable winds are keeping the area on the drier side today, but weak disturbances in the upper flow tonight along with some slightly stronger lobes of the trough over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday may bring some rain chances to the far north Sunday morning. Highs for the western half look to be in the low 90s and mid to upper 80s on the Plateau.
As a disorganized Gulf low moves onto the lower Texas coast, there is not a whole lot left for us here farther up the coast. Tomorrow, we head into a much less rainy scenario as high pressure takes hold. Tomorrow, as high pressure begins to really assert itself over the area, we should see subsidence do a better job of suppressing cloud cover. With more sun and isolated rain coverage at best, temperatures should be a touch warmer.
Upper level high pressure stretching north over the Plains with a ridge of high pressure stretching southeast over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a deep upper trough centered off the East Coast will bring northwesterly flow in the mid and upper levels to the Southeast through the Near Term. Around to above normal temperatures are expected, especially over the lower PoP areas of the northern half of the forecast area. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s inland, upper 70s along the coast are expected.
322 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022) Today through Monday: Low pressure along the WI/IL border will continue to shift to the southeast this morning. Stratus associated with the low will linger throughout the day with the potential for some patchy drizzle east of Madison, though most could stay dry. As the low and trough axis exits the area, northeast winds will develop across the area and continue into Monday resulting in highs in the 70s with areas closer to Lake Michigan potentially not getting out of the 60s today.
Broad troughing up the east coast with ridging upstream across western CONUS will position the forecast area in mostly northwest flow aloft in the coming forecast period. At the surface, a high shifting east through Ontario will extend a ridge south and southwestward over the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance continues to suggest ridging over Lake Superior will dominate the region through at least the middle of the coming week.
230 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Upper trough to remain down the Eastern Seaboard through mid-week with series of upper impulses moving over the region at times. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will sink and stall in N Florida with weak high pressure ridge axis S of the state producing light westerly onshore flow precip pattern. A weak frontal boundary sinks into North Florida as high pressure holds over the Florida Straits keeping a weak westerly flow over the Eastern Gulf waters through mid week with generally light winds and slight seas.
417 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions today. A pleasant end to the weekend is in store as high pressure hangs around for one more day. Similar to yesterday, some shallow river valley fog and cooler temperatures will start the day off. The high pressure will be forced east of the region as an upper-level trough moves into the region. The upper-level trough moves into the region Monday morning, bringing scattered showers mainly for areas west of I-81. Temperatures will max out in the 70s with the lower elevations getting close to 80.
Through the day, the low will move northwest to southeast, into the Ohio River Valley. Low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies will move to the northeast, into the West River region of South Dakota. Late tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible as the lee cyclone lifts to the northeast.
Monday, while a trough amplifies across the Great Lakes/New England, the High center, which has been stationary across easter CO/western KS over the past several days, will weaken and then redevelop across the Four Corners.
339 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure will prevail inland as a weak area of low pressure sits offshore.
1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (Tonight) High pressure centered to the north is gradually being supplanted by a high pressure ridge building in the mid-Atlantic.
1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure and dry atmosphere remain in control and generally only weak SRLY flow is expected. Further Details: An area of H5 high pressure sitting over northern parts of the Panhandles will slowly migrate southward today/tonight, and should be centered over the area by tomorrow. The center of the high being directly over the area leads to subsidence, and the overall dry column should lead to plenty of clear skies outside of only a few high clouds.
A weak upper impulse wl skirt NE AR later this mrng, as it tracks along the eastern periphery of an upper high centered to our west.
This system will continue to move slowly ese into the lower OH valley region by this evening. A ridge of high pressure will then build in and bring predominantly fair and dry wx for most of the upcoming week along with seasonable temps for this time of year.
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 The Mid-South remains under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft downstream of a strong ridge over the Southern Plains. Slightly farther upstream, a strong, 100-kt jet is cresting to the ridge and will propagate southeast across the OH Valley today. As this cyclone moves southeast today, the cold front will follow suit, moving into the Mid-South this evening and overnight. Ahead of the front today, temperatures will warm into the low/mid 90s. The aforementioned, slow-moving cold front is forecast to be over north MS Monday afternoon. Most areas will remain dry with highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s in the north to the low/mid 90s in the south.
245 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A series of weak low pressure systems will track from just southwest of Lake Michigan, to just off the Mid Atlantic Coast by mid week.
Sunday night should be very similar to the previous night, perhaps a couple degrees warmer, with fog again possible in eastern MN and western WI.
The upper pattern through the rest of the short term features an upper high over the central/southern plains and ridging just to our west. though that ridge axis gradually progresses east with a slight weakening in the strength of the upper high. The period starts off with a ridge aloft centered over the Southern Plains. A mid-level ridge then begins to re-assert itself over the western CONUS in what looks like a pseudo positive PNA flow pattern.
1244 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 The quiet weather continues as water vapor imagery shows us in weak northwest flow aloft with a prominent ridge over the central US. Lowered highs slightly for today based on some of the cloud cover, the weak cold front, and observations not trending as warm. Highs for tomorrow have come down slightly with anticipated cloud cover and the stalled out cold front across the area.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will continue to warm a couple of degrees this afternoon under the mid to upper ridge.
A vort max sliding along an upper level ridge should bring some scattered showers to the northeast portion of the CWA today, primarily impacting Cook and Lake Counties, Bayfield Peninsula, and south into Ashland and Iron Counties. Global models continue to hint at an upper level low moving across the region as we go into the weekend, but exact placement is still widespread amongst ensembles. The one exception is INL, which model guidance continues to keep north of the lowest visibilities.
1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level ridging just far enough north to allow some moisture and drift east along the southern periphery into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon.
118 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure will prevail inland overnight as a weak area of low pressure sits offshore.
Upper ridge today is shifted a bit east compared to recent days, so monsoonal moisture and associated impulses are more likely to track across southern/central/eastern sections of the CWA as opposed to the northwestern zones. Modest heights falls today and cloud cover will keep afternoon highs a bit cooler with readings in the lower 90s common. Upper ridge is flattened a bit more by Monday with mid level flow more zonal. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front sags into central Illinois.
315 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures return for the first half of the week under upper level low pressure.
Cold front extending from near stationary low to the east of area, will remain to the south of the region Today. The front will dissipate Tonight, as the low weakens and moves further east.
The upper level pattern is not expected to change much over the next 24-36 hours as northwest flow aloft dominates in response to a fairly pronounced upr trough across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast CONUS.
Upper trough to remain down the Eastern Seaboard through mid-week with series of upper impulses moving over the region at times. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will sink and stall in N Florida with weak high pressure ridge axis S of the state producing light westerly onshore flow precip pattern. A weak frontal boundary sinks into North Florida as high pressure holds over the Florida Straits keeping a weak westerly flow over the Eastern Gulf waters through mid week with generally light winds and slight seas.
627 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A series of weak low pressure systems will track from just southwest of Lake Michigan, to just off the Mid Atlantic Coast by mid week.
Highs range from the lower 80s near Lake of the Woods, to the middle 80s around Devils Lake. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along an H5 trough axis through the overnight hours, then slowly spread eastward through the day on Monday. Daytime highs look to be in the low 80s, dropping a bit by the end of the week.
646 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (Today through Monday) The GFS/ECMWF generally agree with the timing/position of the 500-mb upper low, moving it slowly westward across the CWA today/tonight, with N-S axis west of the Rio Grande by 12z Monday.
This flow is shifting the higher monsoonal moisture eastward, so drying is occurring over our service area.
Tonight, the best axis of moisture slides slightly to the southeast, moving the highest moisture content right through the center of our CWA.
Highs range from the lower 80s near Lake of the Woods, to the middle 80s around Devils Lake. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along an H5 trough axis through the overnight hours, then slowly spread eastward through the day on Monday. Daytime highs look to be in the low 80s, dropping a bit by the end of the week. Wind will tend to be light through Sunday morning, increasing from the south 10-15kt during the daytime period Sunday as low pressure begins to deepen to the west.
908 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 The cold frontal surface extends from near Flagler Beach through northern Marion/southern Alachua Counties to near the mouth of the Suwannee River. Cold front extending from near stationary low to the east of area, will remain to the south of the region Today. The front will dissipate Tonight, as the low weakens and moves further east.
633 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure and dry atmosphere remain in control. A little bit of a theta-e ridge will begin setting up by Monday over the area as the high settles just south of the area, but soundings suggest the atmosphere will remain capped by warm -3 deg C H5 temps for all but perhaps the far NW where some modest mid level cooling can be seen due to those areas being further removed from the high center.
Gradual warming and drying continues as high pressure builds into the area from the east. Today and Tonight: Expansive mid-level ridging will remain prominent across much of the Western CONUS with upstream troughing from the eastern Pacific through the Pacific Northwest States. Low-level subtropical ridging will prevail across the eastern Pacific with lower pressures over CA and into the Southwestern States. Lows tonight will mostly be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with warmer readings in the higher elevations.
Upper level analysis continues to show high pressure centered over the southern Plains, with weak westerly flow over the northern Plains. Monsoonal moisture is wrapping around the high across the region. Unsettled and slightly cooler weather will continue over the next couple of days as upper high remains over the southern Plains and then starts to slowly shift west toward the Four Corners region. A series of disturbances will continue to track north of the high across the region, with showers and thunderstorms at times. Cooler temperatures are expected, near to even slightly below average levels, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Drier air will start to move into the area from the west-northwest later Monday and especially Monday night as ridge starts to build over the Rockies.
The pattern aloft remains somewhat "troughy" with occasional impulses traversing the area.
/NEW/ Update: No changes needed to the forecast through Monday as we'll remain under the influence of high pressure keeping things warm and dry. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ North and Central Texas will continue to remain under the influence of mid level ridging keeping things hot and dry across most of the region. Modest mid level easterly flow will continue around the periphery of the ridge and on the north side of a trough moving into Deep South Texas. That moisture will remain closely tied to the westward moving trough and will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across Central and South Texas through Monday. Subsidence associated with the ridge to the north and on the periphery of the disturbance should keep things dry across our area today and again Monday.
With the expected rainfall on Monday, it will be a very cool day for this time of year with highs only in the lower to mid 70s.
356 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, given lower heights and increased cloud cover. A few showers/storms can't be ruled out, but these would be weak and mainly confined to the high terrain. Wyoming continues to be under the influence of the H5 ridge, which will be rebuilding to the west into Idaho.
SE-NW orientated inverted low-level trough persists over the forecast area this morning. Weak low-level convergence and weak frontogeneic forcing near trough axis, in concert with deep surface based moisture, will continue to favor occasional drizzle at least through the mid-morning hours. Latest radar trends indicate that the more persistent areas of drizzle are mainly west of the I41 corridor where the low-level convergence is a bit more focused. As the day progresses, the inverted trough should gradually drop to the south and east, while the deep surface-based moisture layer becomes somewhat more shallow.
A large upper ridge continues to sit over the center of the country.
337 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies centered over the Four Corners with a ridge riding north out of it through eastern Montana and onto the Plains of Saskatchewan. The backside of ridge contains a large area of southwest flow running from western Montana back down to northern California and off shore where it is picking up moisture and transporting it to the region. At the surface a lee side trough has set up over central Montana and is dividing dry surface air to the west from increased moisture at the surface to the east. Today through Monday: Southwest flow holds for a short period until the ridge migrates back west by Monday.
Water vapor shows large upper ridge axis extending into the Central/Northern Plains, with southern edge of the monsoonal moisture plume across the CWA. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with surface trof extending from the far western Dakotas southward through the NEB panhandle into eastern CO. A more robust short wave approaches later this afternoon tonight and tonight, with convection initiating in the NEB panhandle in closer proximity to the aforementioned surface trof, then spreading eastward across western/northern portions of the forecast area tonight. If there is enough clearing/heating, then another round of storms will likely develop at least in the eastern half of zones along a weak cold front.
It's a bit cooler this morning vs 24 hours ago. Sunday's virga was replaced by a few sprinkles overnight as the low levels grew less hot/dry. More sprinkles are possible later this afternoon with the approach of the warm front from the west and the remnants of the north central Nebraska shower activity is steered southeast in the predominant flow.
515 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, given lower heights and increased cloud cover. A few showers/storms can't be ruled out, but these would be weak and mainly confined to the high terrain. Wyoming continues to be under the influence of the H5 ridge, which will be rebuilding to the west into Idaho.
1009 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure will prevail inland as a weak area of low pressure sits offshore.
A vort max sliding along an upper level ridge should bring some scattered showers to the northeast portion of the CWA today, primarily impacting Cook and Lake Counties, Bayfield Peninsula, and south into Ashland and Iron Counties. Global models continue to hint at an upper level low moving across the region as we go into the weekend, but exact placement is still widespread amongst ensembles. The one exception is INL, which is north of the lowest visibilities and should stay VFR.
As high pressure moves westward, chances for showers increase across central and western Nevada through Monday and eventually into northwest Nevada by mid week. Winds will remain light and terrain influenced as the high pressure aloft moves over the region through Monday. Temperatures will hit the lower 90s this afternoon and again on Monday in many northern valleys with 80s across central Nevada.
1029 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures return for the first half of the week under upper level low pressure. Upper troughing over the NE CONUS will deepen as a jet streak apparent in latest WV imagery crosses the upstream inflection point and begins to round the base of the trough.
/issued 352 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022/ A well defined upper level anti-cyclone centered over the Texas Panhandle, clearly visible early this morning on IR/WV satellite imagery, will maintain its grip over our area the next couple of days.
621 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) The upper ridge has slid a little south in the last 24hrs with a tropical wave moving into the southeast TX coast riding along the easterlies.
(Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022) Today through Monday: Low pressure along the WI/IL border will continue to shift to the southeast this morning. Stratus associated with the low will linger throughout the day with the potential for some patchy drizzle east of Madison, though most could stay dry. As the low and trough axis exits the area, northeast winds will develop across the area and continue into Monday resulting in highs in the 70s with areas closer to Lake Michigan potentially not getting out of the 60s today.
/issued 339 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022/ The Mid-South remains under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft downstream of a strong ridge over the Southern Plains. Slightly farther upstream, a strong, 100-kt jet is cresting to the ridge and will propagate southeast across the OH Valley today. As this cyclone moves southeast today, the cold front will follow suit, moving into the Mid-South this evening and overnight. Ahead of the front today, temperatures will warm into the low/mid 90s. The aforementioned, slow-moving cold front is forecast to be over north MS Monday afternoon. Most areas will remain dry with highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s in the north to the low/mid 90s in the south.
Showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning over central North Dakota, in advance of a weak disturbance progressing over the peak of an upper level ridge to our west. The pattern will remain similar through the day with the ridge axis near the Montana border. However, the south could end up being cooler than currently forecast depending on how cloud cover evolves through the day. Tonight's lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure over the region will provide near to slightly above normal temperatures and dry conditions today and Monday with a slight warming trend.
536 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (Today) Mid / upper level ridge remains centered over the local region and 00z RAOBS sampled the warming low level temp profiles which support increased high temps today.
541 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures return for the first half of the week under upper level low pressure.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Water vapor shows large upper ridge axis extending into the Central/Northern Plains, with southern edge of the monsoonal moisture plume across the CWA. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with surface trof extending from the far western Dakotas southward through the NEB panhandle into eastern CO. A more robust short wave approaches later this afternoon tonight and tonight, with convection initiating in the NEB panhandle in closer proximity to the aforementioned surface trof, then spreading eastward across western/northern portions of the forecast area tonight. If there is enough clearing/heating, then another round of storms will likely develop at least in the eastern half of zones along a weak cold front.
Current satellite imagery is showing clear skies over the region which will allow the overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s for the lower elevations and mid 40s for the higher elevations. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and winds will be locally breezy. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid 90s for the lower elevations and mid 80s elsewhere. The HRRR/SREF models are showing an upper level ridge over the Four Corners beginning to retrograde into the region. The ridge will bring with it warmer temperatures and some potential for monsoonal moisture into the southern portion of the CWA. The NBM is currently showing temperatures to be a few degrees warmer today and increasingly warmer through the forecast period.
Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures will persist the next few days, before a building upper level ridge brings a steady warm up to the region by midweek.
743 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures return for the first half of the week under upper level low pressure.
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A large upper ridge continues to sit over the center of the country.
A vort max sliding along an upper level ridge should bring some scattered showers to the northeast portion of the CWA today, primarily impacting Cook and Lake Counties, Bayfield Peninsula, and south into Ashland and Iron Counties. Global models continue to hint at an upper level low moving across the region as we go into the weekend, but exact placement is still widespread amongst ensembles.
Large scale pattern consisting of an extensive area of upper high pressure centered over the central Plains. Meanwhile, downstream upper trough was situated over the northeast CONUS. At the surface, backdoor cool air advection was keeping current temps in the mid 70s/low 80s with dew points in the low/mid 60s over the CWA.