Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BETTER SURGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WATERTOWN TO REDFIELD SD TO MOBRIDGE AND THIS WILL MOVE NORTH AND INTO SE ND TOWARD 06Z.
/ISSUED 239 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015/ An upper level low has moved over the four corners region today pushing the dryline well to the east and leaving very dry air across the entire area today as well as strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains.
606 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015 THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE INSTABILITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS SHOW MINOR SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH SO SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
ARE EXPECTED TO CUT OFF THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCLUDING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REFORMS.
Will send an update shortly to rid the forecast of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains, but to also increase PoPs along the eastern fringe of the CWA. As of 10/03Z, a Pacific cold front has pushed to the eastern fringe of the forecast area where it is meeting up with a retreating dryline. Mid level lapse rates are indicated to be around 8C and 0 to 6 km bulk shear 50 to 60kt above the dryline/front intersection over the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015/ An upper level low has moved over the four corners region today pushing the dryline well to the east and leaving very dry air across the entire area today as well as strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains.
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST TRANSITIONS TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DEEP LOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONTROLS THE SITUATION. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MORE PATCHY FOG FORMATION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN. WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLD AFTN/EVENING T IN OUR NERN COUNTIES, BUT THE POP IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. THESE ARE IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THRU SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS A MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
/ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH (10/00Z) SHOWS MID LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR AND A CAP BETWEEN 6K AND 12K FEET. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THE RIDGING AND THEREFORE. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SLIDING EWD.
1239 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT.
A weak upper level ridge centered just to our east will help suppress storm strength in our region through the weekend.
SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT ALONG WESTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM GULF REGION RIGHT UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER SW COLORADO PUSHING COPIOUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BUT TRACK OF UPPER LOW TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY WILL BRING THOSE DYNAMICS A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TXK TERMINAL. SHOULD START TO SEE SCT SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM WRN AR/ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX AHEAD OF THE CO CLOSED LOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLD AFTN/EVENING T IN OUR NERN COUNTIES, BUT THE POP IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. THESE ARE IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THRU SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS A MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
1043 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. CENTER OF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING AND TRACKS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 19Z AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX LATER TONIGHT AS CANADIAN SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 538 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ MVFR STRATOCU DECKS IN LOW LVL NW FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
The highest amounts have been reported north and east of Springfield between the Highway 65 and Interstate 44 corridors where several reports in the 2-4" range have been received. North Canadian high pressure will move over the region Sunday evening through Sunday night.
DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE BILLINGS AREA SINCE AIR MIXING DOWN IS A BIT DRIER AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NOSES INTO IDAHO WHICH SUPPORTS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUT IT IS A WESTERLY ORIENTATION WHICH LIMITS GAP FLOW WIND SPEEDS. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND DEFINITELY WARMER WITH MANY AREAS CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING.
830 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 40S WEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNSET AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A DEFORMATION AXIS PRESENT WEST OF THIS LOW.
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER SLOPES BUT THATS ABOUT IT. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. UPPER RIDGING AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO THE BULK OF COLORADO. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A MEAN RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALBEIT A GOOD BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S. NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN TODAY. A NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND SUNDAY'S WAVE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON MON. THIS WILL PUSH THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE SOME WARMING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUCH AS IF/WHEN/HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT.
408 PM PST SAT JAN 9 2016 ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND ADD SOME POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED UP FOR MOST AREAS AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING LEVELS HAVE BEEN DROPPING DURING THE DAY.
COLD ADVECTION AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ A COLD FRONT PRECEDED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN MS AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER AND DRIZZLE LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WIND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
926 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 Erosion of widespread low cloudiness across far ern OK and nwrn AR behind exiting cyclone to the east has slowed past couple hours. Regardless, very cold night ahead and temperatures will remain unseasonably cold through Sunday as high pressure settles over the region.
Cold conditions will remain during the day Sunday as temperatures struggle to reach the freezing mark across northern areas.
444 PM MST SAT JAN 9 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT 24 HR WITH A WEAK UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFT 10/18Z.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT WITH WINDS ALOFT RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE N/NW.
A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS BOTH AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING LEVELS HAVE BEEN DROPPING DURING THE DAY.
THE LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/ THAT WERE IN PLACE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN THINNING AND DISSIPATING SINCE LATE MORNING. WE USED A 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON THE MOS OUTPUT TO BUILD THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
MODELS ALL BROUGHT QPF INTO THE WISCONSIN AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE PLUS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE STATE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AS THE LOW APPROACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY OVERALL CONSENSUS OF PROGS SUGGESTS A COLD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TIMING TROUGHS AND SNOW CHANCES FOLLOWED WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST MAY PROVIDE THE FIRST CHANCE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINE.
WE HAVE A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING WHICH IS KEEPING WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS THE HRRR. THE LOW SUN ANGLE. ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER SLOPES BUT THATS ABOUT IT. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. UPPER RIDGING AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO THE BULK OF COLORADO. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A MEAN RIDGE.
THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IS CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION. THE LOWS WILL DROP DOWN FAR BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST REACHING EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST A GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND REDUCING CLOUD COVER.
Meanwhile, a more significant upper wave noted further upstream across eastern Arkansas is triggering a large area of rain from the Ozarks northward into the lower Ohio River Valley.
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED BELOW FREEZING TODAY MOST OF THE AREA DESPITE M SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW COVERED AND/OR WET GROUND TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS SEEM OVERLY IMPRESSED.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA. WILL GET DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THAT FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW (NOW OVER NE ARKANSAS) ROTATES VORT ENERGY AND DEFORMATION AXIS TOWARDS MIDDLE TN BEFORE PULLING NEWD OUT OF HERE. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH OUR NWRN COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES NE AND PULLS OUT TOWARD DAWN.
AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER TEENS.
OUR FIRST TRUE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL OOZE DOWN TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING RATHER BRISK EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONT MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXTENDING FROM NEAR RAPID CITY TO EAST CENTRAL NEB. THEREFORE GREGORY COULD VERY WELL REACH THE LOWER 20S.
EVEN THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IF ANY CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS TAKES PLACE. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM SWEETWATER COUNTY TO CASPER AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
443 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 A COLD FRONT PRECEDED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN MS AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER AND DRIZZLE LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WIND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PASSING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. LOOKS FOR A RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH MORNING AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
PLACES WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND WILL MOST LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR UP OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE TROF AXIS ALOFT PUSHES EAST. BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD KEEP LOWS ACROSS THE FA WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
We could see some patchy light freezing fog early Sunday morning but it should not present much of a hazard.
AS SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD A INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FARTHER E ACROSS DEEP E TX/N LA.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FREEZING LINE TO SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE HAD TROUBLE WITH THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES COMING OFF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PLATEAU THOUGH AND THINK THERE ISNT ENOUGH MOMENTUM OF THE HIGH DENSITY AIR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN BEFORE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO TELL BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW. COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT WARMER UNTIL THE CLOUDS SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A mixture of low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle was still situated over the forecast area as dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of the approaching cold front.
WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY BUT WILL FORECAST A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THIS POINT. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED BELOW FREEZING TODAY MOST OF THE AREA DESPITE M SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW COVERED AND/OR WET GROUND TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS SEEM OVERLY IMPRESSED.
BUT EXPECT THIS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER SHEAR/COLD AIR ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL WEAKEN.
709 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS ERODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
However, decreasing cloud cover is likely overnight along with calmer winds, so look for lows down into the single digits near the I-70 corridor to the lower teens(F) closer to the Oklahoma border. This will draw slightly warmer air northward into the area along the Colorado border with H85 temperatures around 5C below by mid afternoon.
WE'LL SEE INCREASING MID CLOUD FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS A FINAL IMPULSE CARVES DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL PART OF AN OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL SHUT DOWN THE MOISTURE TRAIN FOR A FEW DAYS.
LAV IS A TOUCH WARMER FOR LOWS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. WARMER UNDER THE STRATUS BLANKET/. BUT EXPECT THIS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 40S WEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNSET AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A DEFORMATION AXIS PRESENT WEST OF THIS LOW.
538 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 MVFR STRATOCU DECKS IN LOW LVL NW FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS COMBINED WITH A WNW(DOWNSLOPE) UPPER FLOW AT 500/700MB WILL GIVE THE CWA A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BRIEFLY WEAKENING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FORCED INTO THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COOLING OF TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER.
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES WILL ALLOW A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS E CENTRAL FL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY GIVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
An upper ridge will hold in place across the western U. with general troughing over eastern Canada and the eastern 1/3 of the nation.
The center of the upper trough was over central Arkansas early this afternoon with associated snowfall coming to an end nearby.
THIS WOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS MON NIGHT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE RED RIVER ON TUE WITH THE CORRESPONDING WIND SHIFT. ALL SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WHERE VALUES COULD PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO. AND PERHAPS FLURRIES WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND PINE RIDGE. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE.
THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH OF SODA SPRINGS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 15 ALSO RECEIVING CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WITH REPORTS OF UP TO HALF INCH ACCUMULATION SINCE THIS MORNING. AS FOR THE LOW STRATUS. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE BEEN AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MODELS INDICATED 24 HRS AGO AND NEARLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MODELS INDICATED 2-3 DAYS AGO. BASED ON A BETTER CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE EC/GEM WHICH HAVE BEEN BETTER ON THE COOLER READINGS. AM LEANING TOWARD LOWERING TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (CLIPPER) ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.
CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED BACK IN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BEYOND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. /ISSUED 610 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AROUND BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. /ISSUED 244 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM KAEX-KLCH AT 09/20Z.
AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT BILLINGS AS WIND PICKED UP AND WARMER AIR STARTED INTO THE AREA. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE BILLINGS AREA SINCE AIR MIXING DOWN IS A BIT DRIER AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NOSES INTO IDAHO WHICH SUPPORTS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUT IT IS A WESTERLY ORIENTATION WHICH LIMITS GAP FLOW WIND SPEEDS. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND DEFINITELY WARMER WITH MANY AREAS CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 40 21 42 / 100 20 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 39 19 39 / 100 40 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 36 38 18 39 / 100 40 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 40 18 36 / 100 50 10 0 TN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR HELPING TO GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES. BUT A MORE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
610 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AROUND BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. /ISSUED 244 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM KAEX-KLCH AT 09/20Z.
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S LOOK POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING MOST TEMPS OUT OF THE 20S.
AND MORE SIMILAR TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION WINDOW RUNS.
BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY ANCHORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL EAST TONIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRYING, REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER THURSDAY.
623 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TAMPA BAY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC PLAYERS THIS AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL RELIABLE NWP TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE ITS AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.