Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. WITH UPPER LOW OVER ID AMID WEAK 500MB HEIGHT RISES. AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SASK/WESTERN ONT WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M AHEAD OF IT. WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE DAKOTAS. TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SAGS INTO NORTHEAST NEB SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE PLAINS.
FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CAA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MONDAY ROUGHLY 10F DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
221 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL START MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. COLD FRONT WILL BE SEEPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AS WELL TONIGHT.
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEK AND BECOME SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT TRAVERSES OVER TEXAS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MO AND NORTHWEST IL.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. WITH UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
344 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO A SHOW LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE HAS ALL BUT PARKED ITSELF RIGHT ON TOP OF OUR CWA FOR THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK NOW AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE BUDGING QUITE YET. CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S WHICH HAS ALLOWED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EASILY CLIMB INTO ADVISORY RANGE FOR MOST AREAS.
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO A SHOW LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE HAS ALL BUT PARKED ITSELF RIGHT ON TOP OF OUR CWA FOR THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK NOW AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE BUDGING QUITE YET. CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S WHICH HAS ALLOWED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EASILY CLIMB INTO ADVISORY RANGE FOR MOST AREAS.
AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
512 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
628 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND RETREATS WESTWARD.
GRANTED THE LOWER 70S HAVE NOT BEEN AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW BUMP IN MOISTURE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. DEL RIO FINALLY HIT 100 DEGREES YESTERDAY SHOWING THAT THIS PERSISTENT RIDGE IS FINALLY PUSHING MAX TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA SEEM TO BE ON MARK WITH SEASONAL NORMS OR A SLIGHTLY WARMER. A MILD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A NOD TO COOLER LOWS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AGAIN AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE WARM.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY OVER SRN CONUS. WHILE WEAK 1000-700 MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NC TO SRN GA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS NARROW TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN MT SWWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL CA. BROAD TROF EXTENDS ACRS THE DAKOTAS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
132 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015 TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AFTER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL HOPEFULLY LIMIT THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH THE LOWER LEVELS ALSO NOT NEARLY AS DRY. THE HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DECREASE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXPECTED AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN NC WI. IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW WI LATE. WITH THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK AND WEAK S/W TROF. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER TO MID 70S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH A SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THAT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC. BASED ON THE PATTERN WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THIS TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE MIN TEMPS HOLD ARND 65. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVING N OF THE CWA DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME PRECIP FRI INTO SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. TUE AND WED WE WILL BE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH E AND A BUILDING RIDGE W. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO UPPER MI BEING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND HUDSON BAY. AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO ALBERTA.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE EVENING BUT MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN COLORADO.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/LOWER GREAT LAKES. A SECOND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ONLY CONCERN IS WITH DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE POKING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ON TUE AS THE DOLORES MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD DUE TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BUT THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT OF CA LATE FRI. THE GFS HAS PUT PRECIP INTO THE FCST AREA FOR FRI AFTN INTO SAT MORN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/ISSUED 212 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
ALSO, A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC TROFS/CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY BE HELPING THIS REGION OF ACTIVITY. THE MCS/MCV OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DROP SE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF IT WILL FULLY REGENERATE OR NOT.
426 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. RETAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS OVER THE OK PNHDL AND PARTS OF THE NRN TX PNHDL ARUOND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO OVER THE WRN TX PNHDL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SFC TROF AXIS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AND NRN TX PNHDL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PNHDL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL START MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. MAINLY FOR THE NORTH AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH CAPE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN UNINTERUPTED VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ A STAGNANT PATTERN UNDER UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN THE CARDS TODAY WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS FORESEEN. THIS RIDGE WAS BUSY WARDING OFF T-STORMS FROM OUR REGION AS THE NEAREST PRECIP WAS FOUND JUST NORTH OF I-40 FROM TCC TO AMA.
232 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 REMNANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM MONTANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW CLD COVER WILL LINGER ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL THEN START TO IMPROVE AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING KICKS IN. 500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY STATUS QUO CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. A LITTLE MORE CLD COVER FOR MON MAY HOLD DOWN THE HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MUCH MORE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATED SOME BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS ADVECTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER TO MID VALLEY AND AROUND 100 IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WEST.
A few storms are once again possible over the higher terrain this afternoon, possibly affecting KCNM.
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 1930Z. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH KSBN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
303 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
High pressure will begin to weaken allowing a weak system to pass through today and Monday.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. /ISSUED 215 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE MOST FOR THE LAST WEEK.
AS THE H5 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS BACK WEST ON MONDAY AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS ONCE DOLORES MOVES TO INLAND CALIFORNIA.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAVE BLOOMED WITH TOWERING CUMULUS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY. BUT THERE IS A WEAK 700-500MB TROUGH MOVING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
250 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 An upper level high continues to sit over central Texas bringing hot and dry conditions to most of the area. The exception is the higher elevations west of the Pecos River where showers and thunderstorms are already developing this afternoon.
146 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING A WESTERLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TSTMS TAPER OFF AFT 03Z THIS EVE BUT TROF LINGERS INTO THE EARLY MRNG SO A FEW LEFTOVER SHWRS PSBL. RDGG FNLY CLRS THE TROF OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIPRES ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HOLDS THRU MON NGT KEEPING THE WX DRY. ANOTHER TROF/ COLD FNT PASSES ON TUE AND MODELS GENERATE SOMEWHT WIDESPREAD BUT GNRLY LGT PCPN FOR THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
A DEEP RIDGE COMPLEX STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOWER PORTIONS HAVE FRACTURED INTO TWO PIECES.
TSRA WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB TROUGH/SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE OVER THIS REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS 700 MB TROUGH TRIES TO CLOSE OFF.
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAS RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND NORTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS ONCE AGAIN REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO NE MT. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
TONIGHT PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING CWA. ACTUAL COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AS DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED FROM 72 TO 65 AT MBS. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 KNOTS/ ALONG THIS FRONT.
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY STILL POISED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOME.
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG SOME LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
/ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ ANOTHER HOT AFTN ON TAP AS LARGE DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION. THE CWA REMAINS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO STREAM ACRS THE AREA ON ELY WINDS ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MINIMAL ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSURING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING/EXPECTED AS THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE/HOT TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENT PATTERN INCLUDES A STRONG UPPER HIGH NEAR THE ARKLATEX WITH NW FLOW TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
STILL EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH TODAY. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A BIT ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH DID NOTICE A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS WANTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS.
238 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE S CENTRAL CA COAST AT ABOUT 33. H2O VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO BE BALLED UP NEAR AND TO THE E OF THE LOW CENTER. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NE IN THE BASE OF A PACIFIC COAST TROF. AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING MONDAY EVENING AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE IN ZONE 475 (CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT ARENA OUT 10NM TO 60NM FROM SHORE), WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to get going again late tonight as yet another modest trough exits the Rockies through the Plains States, tapping into all the moisture streaming north with the monsoon across Desert Southwest. Given the low flash flood guidance values across northern Missouri, have pushed a going flash flood watch north to the Iowa border. While the general environment should be rather well worked over by then, there is still expected to be an increase in organizing shear values thanks to the trough. Otherwise, behind the trough that moves through Monday, the flow will tilt to the northwest which should help clear the potential for more precipitation from our forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours of Monday.
218 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLORES.
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY ON MONDAY BEHIND A FRONT THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
453 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
454 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
An outflow boundary is currently located across central Missouri near the Highway 54 corridor from earlier convection. Elsewhere temperatures are in the lower 90s and the heat index is between the upper 90s to 104 currently. This convection potential may get a little help from the low level jet that will develop tonight. mainly south of the Highway 54 corridor. More clouds and scattered convection potential across central Missouri will keep temperatures a tad bit cooler.
WITH COOLER DEWPOINTS AND LOW CLOUD DECK MOVG INTO NORTHERN FRINGES OF AREA. IN ASSOC WITH WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AND A NARROW RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAIN W. ASSOCIATED SHALLOW COLD FRONT STRUGGLING TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE OUACHITAS IN SE OK/SW AR. AND WE SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREE WARMER AS WELL. WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY CONSISTENT RUN- TO-RUN LIGHT SNOW SIGNAL FOR THE AREA WITH THIS TROUGH.
MAINLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INCLUDING MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TUE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE TURNS CROSSING INDIANA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL HOOSIER STATE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH THE CAVEAT THAT CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE WARMER AND DRY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
259 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016 COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE WARMTH THE SUNSHINE WOULD BRING IS GOING TO BE OFFSET BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.