Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
409 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD IN CVRG BTWN 12Z AND 18Z TDA AS APPCHG TROF/CDFNT MVS TWD AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BRING A CLOUDY AND CHILLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE AIR MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW OR SLEET TO MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
652 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
237 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. COOLER.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTL FL TODAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH. MAKING IT INTO SE GA TONIGHT AND WASHING OUT ACROSS NE FL WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK AS BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. COOLER AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. LOW/MID 80S BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 90S OUT TOWARDS I-75 IN NE FL.
THE FRONT WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIND SHIFT AND A DROP IN SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S.
AS STORM INGESTED THIS HIGHER MOISTURE SOURCE ALONG THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVING TO THE EAST. THE INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
OUR SLOW-MOVING IMPOTENT, MOISTURE-STARVED, SFC FRONT HAD JUST BARELY PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST TN BY 2 AM, AND IT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA WILL START THE DAY IN A MILD PRE-FRONTAL CONDITION, WITH SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THUS, WILL BE GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE WARMEST MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPS OVER THAT AREA FOR TODAY. EXPECT SOME DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO PENETRATE AT LEAST OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 50S IN AREAS NEAR THE TN RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GIVING US SOME PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
MORNING SURFACE CHART SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MS ACROSS SOUTHERN AR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR DRY TODAY.
MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
311 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK END. THOUGH EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO COLD AIR BEING ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE LOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. WARMER WEDNESDAY. AND WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT OCCURS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
426 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.
331 AM PDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TODAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
MEANWHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO MID 40S WITH WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS. ROBUST THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD BE NUDGED WARMER A DEGREE OR TWO.
Light rain showers are expected off an on through the day as energy wraps around the low in southern Oregon.
1210 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS CAUSED ALL THE WEEKENDS WEATHER WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW CENTER IN WI SSW INTO CENTRAL WI. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUD COVERED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO EASTERN WI AND EASTERN IL BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN NW IL TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
357 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS STILL SHOWING ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. PLENTY OF SUN AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AND NO CHANCE OF RAIN DUE TO DRIER AIR.
348 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
303 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MICHIGAN. THE AXIS OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
637 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO AREA AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT MUCH COOLER. DAY EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL BE RATHER GUSTY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THE 250 MB UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
614 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 OUR RECENT STRING OF WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS WILL BE CUT TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. COOLER.
300 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF DRYING OUT TODAY. A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND QUICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RAISE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
250 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2015 04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
TODAY AND TONIGHT MUCH COOLER. DAY EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL BE RATHER GUSTY.
A CLOSED AND NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL AND RELATIVELY CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S.
637 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
358 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 COLD FRONT IS WORKING SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER PRESENTLY. THE COLD FRONT MEANWHILE. GIVING WAY TO A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CRASH INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN. A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS FAVORED ON WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
COLD FRONT IS NOW WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT IS WORKING SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER PRESENTLY. THE COLD FRONT MEANWHILE. GIVING WAY TO A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CRASH INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN. A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS FAVORED ON WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST WITH THIS LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES. THE LOW CLOUD DECK EXTENDS BACK TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH THE LOW. AND AGAIN SKIES SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE LOW. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL SPREAD FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN AREAS OF MN ON WEDNESDAY.
613 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 OUR RECENT STRING OF WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS WILL BE CUT TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. COOLER.
JORDAN A WELCOME RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY WED MORNING THANKS TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH SPURRING DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH DOESN/T FAVOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT. BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE THINNING OUT FROM W- E THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 01Z WITH A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS ENTERING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET/DRY AHEAD OF THE WEAK S/W ENERGY AND COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NW GA BTWN 06-09Z THROUGH THE ATL METRO AREA BY 12Z AND LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP ACROSS SRN GA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
136 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AND THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
232 AM CDT Tue May 12 2015 High pressure was centered over the central Plains and influencing the weather across the Ozarks early this morning. Clear conditions and cooler temperatures in the 40s to low 50s and dew points in the low to mid 40s. For today and tonight, tranquil conditions are expected as high pressure at the surface moves across the region from the central Plains while upper ridging builds in from the west-southwest. Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday, albeit slightly cooler in the eastern Ozarks with readings generally in the mid to upper 60s and approaching the low 70s out west.
TOSSED IN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND DEWPOINTS STAYING UP JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOVING INTO YOUR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR YOU TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN DRYER AIR WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-LATE WEEK. BECOMING WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS THE WELL REMOVED UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
444 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SFC ANALYSIS AT 16Z HAS COLD FRONT ON THE DOOR STEP OF CROCKETT TO CALDWELL.
Ahead of the trough/front highs in the 80s are likely (Tuesday night through Monday) Upper level ridging will build across the area during the second half of the work week, resulting in spring like temperatures.
BUT WITH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH DEVELOPING QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS MOVING EAST. THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
341 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER IN OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM ALABAMA TO VIRGINIA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. LIGHT WINDS IN WK RIDGE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE AND LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA. A SHARP/POTENT S/W WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT. ROUNDING THROUGH THE AXIS OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF.
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS. DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS.
338 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
PCPN WILL END ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
PSG OF THE COLD FRONT TUE AFTN WL BRING AN END TO RAINFALL CHCS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE HIGHS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
305 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-SOUTH STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE THE AREA TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
307 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 Another upper level trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft across western SD will dig southeast into western MO by 12Z TUE. Tuesday, The upper trough will dig southeast into the mid and lower MS river valley. Northwest winds will increase behind a surface cold front that will move southeast across the CWA during the early morning hours. The resulting low-level CAA will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the mid 40s in extreme northeast KS to mid 50s across the southwest counties.
DO THINK TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED/THU. WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE HIGH PLAINS SETTING UP FOR THU. GFS MODEL EVEN SHOWS TEMPS POSSIBLY MAKING THE LOW 80S IN CENTRAL KS. BUT STILL THINK TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S LOOK POSSIBLE. AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH INTO THIS AREA. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE ADVECTING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS, EVIDENT ON REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST. A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TODAY. OUR PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH TWO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS: (1)THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES/ARRIVES LATER TODAY, AS WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEMI- DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG A LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE. (2) THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF MORNING WARM-ADVECTION RAIN AND ELEVATED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.
1105 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 18Z TAF issuance Winds continue to decrease behind a morning cold front.
1133 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 A weak low-level trough moving into eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas early this morning has kicked off a few light showers with a light wintry mix spreading into far northern Missouri. A mix of snow, sleet and rain/freezing rain has been reported with this activity over parts of Iowa and Nebraska although accumulations have been very light. Once Tuesday's system pushes to the east, a slow-moving upper ridge to the west will gradually push east into the Plains and Midwest through the remainder of the week.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRATUS DECK MIGHT BE WARMER THAN -12 C. SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES WITH THESE SYSTEMS.
IF CONVECTION FIRES OVER THE WARMER GULF LOOP CURRENT WATERS. THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD HAVE EXITED EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
1007 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 Visibilities are beginning to improve, at least along the highway 65 corridor westward. Temperatures across the eastern Ozarks are below the freezing mark and some freezing fog and slick spots have developed. Temperatures across far southwestern Missouri are in the low to mid 30s. Some low lying areas could be slighting cooler and below freezing with freezing fog possible, along with some slick spots. An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the central Plains early this morning. The trough will track east across the area this morning.
AIR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE ALONG WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. NEXRAD VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE VEERING WINDS AT THE LOWEST 2000 FT OFF OF KBMX WITH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FROM 3000 FT TO 15000 FT. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
347 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 LATEST 21Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT BASICALLY AT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TOMORROW AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TENNIS'SVALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST TOMORROW.
A LARGE AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES EXTENDED DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND SUNSET IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND MID TO UPPER 30S AND BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. TUESDAY FREEZING LEVELS LOWER SOMEWHAT WITH ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE EXTREME NE MOUNTAINS AND ROUND HIGH KNOB.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
DUE MAINLY TO COOLER EASTERLY FLOW IN GEORGIA. A 1008 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MESOSCALE MODELS MOVE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO GEORGIA. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. RADAR DATA SUGGESTS SHRA ACTIVITY IS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS BTWN 01-03Z.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY WINDS DO LOOK TO PICK UP LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SEAS POSSIBLE REACHING HAZARDOUS LEVELS IN THE GULF STREAM AGAIN BY LATE THU-FRI.
Latest model guidance are showing the potential for gusty winds in the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys early this afternoon before the high chance of rain returns. Airfields KMSO and KGPI will have the highest likelihood of being impacted by moderate rain, lowering visibility and ceiling. Valley locations that may see winds in excess of 45 knots include Anaconda, Avon to MacDonald Pass, and near the higher terrain south of Butte between 15/1800z and 16/0000z.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW CENTER IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EAST OF JACKSON CONTINUING TO DEEPEN WITH A PRESSURE OF NEAR 1005MB. APPENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THERE THROUGH HATTIESBURG AND HAMMOND. LIKELY BEING CAPPED DUE TO COOLER GULF WATER TEMPS. POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPS WITH THAT AIR MASS. SO WILL EXPERIENCE WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. MOST GUIDANCE DID SUGGEST COOLER TEMPS THIS MODEL RUN BUT THATS DIFFERENT FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW.
121 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016 SNOW HAS LIGHTNED UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA AND WITH TEMPERATURES NOW ABOVE FREEZING IN TOWN.
Temperatures at mid afternoon were mostly in the low to mid 30s with mildest readings in southeast IL.
AIR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE ALONG WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. NEXRAD VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE VEERING WINDS AT THE LOWEST 2000 FT OFF OF KBMX WITH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FROM 3000 FT TO 15000 FT. THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (PIKE. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
240 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 Fog and much of the low cloud cover finally cleared out of the area by early this afternoon, giving way to partly sunny skies for most. Tuesday should feature a pretty substantial temperature gradient over the region, as lingering cloud cover over the eastern Ozarks and central Missouri keeps temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
THE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHT WILL CONTINUE. BUT HIGH WIND IMPACTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z TUE. EXPECT RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH. GUSTY/STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT EARLY ON TUE MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARDS SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY.