Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With light winds and clear skies, fog development is likely overnight and into Thursday morning as moisture pools ahead of an approaching weak cold front. /issued 311 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Water-vapor imagery overlain with RAP model analysis shows a weak, dry upper trough moving into southern Coahuila at this time. Models (especially NAM & GFS), as well as WPC, have changed their tune regarding the southward progression of a modest cold front currently analyzed across north-central TX. For Thursday's max temps, blended the inherited forecast with Superblend (again, less the ECMWF), which had the effect of lowering max temps 3-5F, still in the low-mid 80s for the mid-Lower RGV as FROPA will be later in the day.
High pressure across the Florida Peninsula will gradually weaken and shift east of the state overnight. Overnight lows should be a little warmer, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Outside of this feature, southerly flow around a ridge of high pressure at the surface will continue to modestly increase moisture across the region through the end of the period, yielding decent chances for fog across the region Thursday morning and late Thursday night/Friday morning. Afternoon highs will continue to range in the low to mid 70s with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
133 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Low pressure in Canada continues to send a cold front through early tonight with scattered snow showers. Then, drier and cooler air enters the region as high pressure takes control into the weekend.
359 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 As of 3 AM, a cold front had moved through all but the southeastern-most part of the forecast area, extending southeast of a Quitman to Hearne to San Antonio line. Moisture is expected to wrap around a low pressure system over East Texas today. As is indicated by the high resolution models, this should result in an increase in cloud cover and some drizzle/sprinkles developing later this morning into the afternoon across the northeastern half of the region. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s across the northwest to the mid 40s across the southeast.
918 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 Updated forecast to include Yuma county in the Winter Weather Advisory based on reports of already receiving freezing drizzle causing slick conditions and to change the coverage and timing of freezing precipitation across the western portion of the forecast area. Soundings slightly warmer in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, which might see the best potential for freezing precipitation. Models were advertising patchy light freezing drizzle/fog for Thursday night into Friday morning on previous shifts. Our CWA will remain downstream of an upper level ridge through the weekend.
1113 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Deteriorating flight conditions will develop overnight ahead of an approaching cold front with lowering ceilings and areas of fog, dense at times.
The I-40 cold front will slowly drift southward tonight and Thursday as a strong push is not evident as the trough begins to encounter the ridge of high pressure in the southeast. Slightly cooler in the northern two-thirds of the area on Thursday as clouds and rain remain in the forecast. Again the cold front will slowly work south through the day, and possibly stalling by the afternoon south of the I-20 corridor. From the 00z raob, it appears that the lower layers of the atmosphere are relatively dry, except near surface. Isentropic lift ahead of the approaching cold front was rather weak. 75 Isolated to scattered rain showers tonight, mainly across the northwest, as a slow moving cold front becomes stationary across the area by Thursday.
1233 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Weak low pressure will move east towards the Bay of Fundy this evening. Weak high pressure builds over the area later tonight.
This area of snow is associated with a warm front that continues to lift north. However, the higher amounts for Friday and into the weekend appear to be on track.
Gusty north winds continue this evening as high pressure builds through the Plains.
The mid levels are dry, but there is some moisture in the low levels with scattered to brief broken more diurnal type stratocumulus expected.
1100 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Colder cyclonic flow in place across the area today following a rather wild cold frontal passage with vigorous snow showers yesterday afternoon/overnight. High pressure remains in control through Thursday night for quiet/cold conditions. Friday into Friday night looks quiet as high pressure begins to push east of the region into the Ohio River Valley.
A cold front, currently located just south of San Angelo, will push south this evening to the Interstate 10 corridor and reach KSOA and KJCT around 9 PM. A weak cold front, currently extending along or near our Interstate 20 corridor, will continue to slowly move south tonight. This front will bring winds from the north and cooler air to West Central Texas. Lows tonight will range from around freezing north to around 40 at Junction. Winds from the north tomorrow will continue to bring cooler air into West Central Texas.
1206 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure continues to build over the region. Have increased flurry mention early in the overnight hours, then tapered toward morning as high pressure shunts clouds and flurries to the south. surface arctic high pressure extended from the center over the Canadian/US Rockies in BC/Alberta/Montana with the ridge axis extending southeastward across the Dakotas. On Thursday the arctic high pressure center settles over the MT/ND border will make for a sunny but cold day with highs mainly from 5 to 15 above zero. An upper level ridge builds in Thursday night and Friday.
1030 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 Surface ridging remains in place over the southwestern United States this afternoon. Ridging returns on Friday with dry weather expected area-wide.
247 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Clouds will be on the increase to end this week as a high pressure systems builds to the Northeast and East of the region. The high pressure that will be in MO and parts of AR will be relatively slow to move out as a new but rather weak weather system will come off the Rockies.
1015 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over MT and southwest Canada, with arctic boundary generally along the lee of the northern and central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows low anchored over southern Hudson Bay, with trough covering much of southern Canada and the northern US. Milder air will begin to push back into the area Friday, and especially over the weekend, as weak ridging moves across the region.
326 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cold front is located this early morning from roughly the Arklatex to South Central Texas. Rua The cold front will continue to move eastward today, reaching the forecast area this afternoon, and out into the coastal waters this evening. Some drier and cooler air, with a brief period of northerly winds, will occur on Friday, behind the front.
405 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure will slowly build into the region through the end of the week. Ridging will continue to work into the area through the period.
With high pressure remaining parked over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, mostly clear skies and weak upper ridgeing and modest height rises vs.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will build slide east reaching the middle Atlantic States by Friday.
The center of the surface to 850 high pressure region will nudge eastward today through Friday but will remain in control of the weather regime. Progs attempt to bring in more diurnal clouds from the west in the return flow region of the high pressure region along with weak upper level troughing.
High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight, followed by dry conditions and milder, near normal temperatures for Friday.
Tonight, a ridge aloft becomes pinched off over the northern plains but this will for the most part suppress convection across the region.
Weak boundary convergence and convection over the higher terrain of Mexico should provide another round of showers and thunderstorms across the region on friday. High temperatures Friday will be in the 80s near the coast and the lower 90s across the west.
After 00Z tomorrow, model guidance indicates that a fairly potent upper level vorticity maxima will slide into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
137 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Showers will decrease across the state this evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
A ridge is currently in place across the Four Corners spreading north into Wyoming and eastern montana. A large trough stretches from British COlumbia down into northern California and is making its plunge further south. Southern to SOuthwest flow exists between these two features with unstable flow just west of the ridge axis. ridge axis will remain centered north/south over the far western zones of the GGW CWA. These storms have a small potential to last into the evening hours if a jet streak to the west of the ridge axis moves by.
The seabreeze should push into the interior by the early afternoon and this is where the highest rain chances are expected today. a bit cooler at the coast courtesy of the seabreeze. High pressure will be ridging across the peninsula at the surface with low pressure in place just to the north of the state. Deep moisture will be in place across the area with an upper trough moving over the state. The area of low pressure will lift to the NE through the weekend with a weak frontal boundary moving through the area.
115 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure over the western Great Lakes will drift eastward to the east coast through Friday. A weak area of low pressure will track northeast through the Tennessee Valley on Friday.
309 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 A transitory ridge will move across the area today. the ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough along the west coast.
307 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Rain/showers will continue to develop and move eastward this morning as an upper level trough approaches the Southern Plains. Most of the rain will end by afternoon/evening but widely scattered showers will linger until the mid/upper trough moves east of the area late tonight.
As of 3 am this morning on radar, a line of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a cold front, is working its way through Eastern Oregon. By early afternoon, the front will be passing through the Magic Valley and most of the area will dry out with high temperatures about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Overnight tonight and into tomorrow, the parent upper level low of the front will continue to dig south and stall over Northern California, spreading more showers and thunderstorms over the area on Friday afternoon.
120 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather and gradual warming through Friday.
The clearing trend will continue on Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure temporarily settles over the region. We can expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday, along with light winds and warmer temperatures. Another area of low pressure is poised to bring more wet weather to eastern Kentucky on Friday.
325 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 The bank of 7kft midlevel cloudiness along and west of Highway 83 should move east today with the approach of a 700mb warm front. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer RAP model which was a few degrees warmer than guidance in some areas.
639 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period with morning fog.
1201 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 A region of low pressure across Montana with high pressure across the Great Lakes region is keeping the northern plains in a mild and dry southerly flow. Lowered the minimum temperatures south central into the lower to middle 40s for tonight. Meanwhile an intense low pressure trough over the Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia coast is forecast to dive/develop southeast into the Pacific northwest states on Thursday.
409 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper level low will keep the chance for an isolated shower or two over central NY and northeast PA today. High pressure will build over the region on Friday bringing spring temperatures back to the area.
357 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 (Today and Tonight) Showers and thunderstorms are moving into the western portions of West Central Texas as an upper level trough across New Mexico approaches the area.
Will follow warmer MAV guidance for highs today with no pops except along eastern mountains.
But a developing trof of low pressure will swing into play late tonight-tmrw. As upper energy dives south in the Plains, an inverted trof of low pressure at the surface works across the Tn valley tmrw.
134 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure builds in on Thursday with a drier environment.
However, both the GFS and the ECMWF do show some weak ridging at 500mb over the area for tonight. With the freezing level still around 15k ft, and a very moist sounding last night, the main threat will be wind once again today. By tomorrow afternoon, an approaching 500mb trough will help to enhance the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again for South Florida.
High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and just slightly below normal. GKS Upper level trough now over the southwestern US will approach our area tonight with increasing cloudiness along with showers spreading into portions of central and southeast MO late tonight. Will place the highest pops, albeit only chance across southeast MO and southwest IL on Friday. With the upper level trough moving east of the forecast area Friday night the precipitation should shift east of the region.
Surface analysis shows a trough draped across our western zones just east of a stationary front over AL and northern GA.
422 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather and gradual warming through Friday.
157 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Drier and warmer weather is forecast for today and most of Friday. Drier air mass will provide plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures today. Upper level ridge will build over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight and slowly move eastward through Friday. The next mid level trough will start to deepen over the lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon.
Latest analysis shows a frontal boundary stretched along the gulf coast and upper trough over the desert southwest. Impulse in advance of the main trough will interact with this boundary to eventually produce showers and isolated thunderstorms. Upper ridge will build over the region in the wake of the impulse with dry conditions expected to round out the period. Temperatures will continue to run below below normal but a little bit warmer than what has been seen recently.
644 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region today and Tonight, producing showers and scattered thunderstorms.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH Mid-level ridging over Wisconsin breaks down as a short wave drops from southern Manitoba into northern Minnesota by 12Z Friday.
Looks like skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy across the area today with some showers possible later this afternoon in the west out ahead of a deep trough that will effect the area overnight. The upper trough will move into louisiana Thursday evening and move across the area Thursday night into Friday.
424 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Drier and warmer weather is forecast for today and most of Friday. Today's drier air mass will provide plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Upper level ridge will build over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight and slowly move eastward through Friday. The next mid level trough will start to deepen over the lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon.
The return of and upper/mid level level ridge will bring back more sun and warmer temperatures heading into Friday.
254 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over New England with a trough in the southern rockies and a trough in the Pacific NW. Pressure gradient tightens as the trough will be pushing into slowly departing ridge. Trough eases over Upper Great Lakes Mon night into Tue. Stongest larger scale forcing lifts northwest of Upper Michigan, but the low- level trough along with theta-e ridging and at least some elevated instability may support shra/tsra making it over cwa. With dry high pressure dominating the Upper Great Lakes region, expect VFR conditions and light winds at all the TAF sites. A quiet late spring pattern is expected for Lake Superior for the remainder of this week as high pressure settles over the Great Lakes region.
Quiet weather Thursday with flow aloft becoming zonal flow due to weak ridging.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be just a few degrees below average. it looks like low stratus could develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county may also see the low clouds.
Partial clearing/sunshine should occur over the most of the area by mid-late Friday afternoon, supporting warmer temperatures.
421 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper level trough is pushing through the area today and bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Mid level height rises Friday bring quieter weather as ridging sets in briefly as an upper level low dives south over the western conus. This low will lift a bit and slide east through the weekend.
1214 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Ridging overhead has kept our sensible weather very quiet the last couple days. Have gone with min temps generally from 36 up through the low 40s, which matches fairly well with what happened upstream of us yesterday. The southwest flow and warm moist advection continues through Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures and dewpoints. An upper level ridge over the central US will amplify and build into the Upper Midwest into the weekend, giving the Northland several days of southerly flow and a warming trend.
342 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A rather stagnant pattern is setting up over lower Michigan as exiting trough stalls over the east coast while deepening closed low remains stationary over the west coast. This is resulting in broad ridging developing across much of the central plains while the lingering thermal trough remains over the Great Lakes.
Widespread convection is expected on Thursday afternoon and evening as an upper level trough approaches from the west.
High res models show this activity diminishing overnight and this seems reasonable given the forcing should continue to weaken as stronger Pac trof moves inland to our west. A deep trof settles over the Pacific NW, bringing increasing SW flow aloft over our area. Baroclinicity will combine upper level jet support to create unstable environment, but a cold front will increase chance of showers and tstms. Cold front will stall Thursday night, and activity will taper off overnight.
212 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period with morning fog.
Weak upper low spinning near the Arizona/New Mexico border at midday. Warmer. Ridge axis builds strongly over SW KS, in response to intense closed low spinning over NW Nevada. Forcing will be limited to nil on this developing dryline Friday, beneath the ridge axis, so kept the forecast dry (pop grids < 15%).
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 224 PM CDT No real concerns expected this forecast period, as high pressure will dominate the region. Did lower min temps slightly in a few spots tonight, but with most places falling to the lower 40s. Although locations near the lake will be cooler, weak gradient and weak flow could allow for these areas to reach around 60 before cooler air off the lake pushes inland by midday. Rodriguez 224 PM CDT High pressure will continue to bring dry and warmer conditions to the CWA.
144 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 After a fair and seasonable night, an upper level low will move across NY and PA Thursday with scattered showers or sprinkles, mainly in the afternoon. High pressure will bring fair weather for Friday.
Temperature gradient across the region is directly correlated with the areal extent of the low/mid clouds. while those locales seeing cloud cover have temps in the lower to mid 50s.
402 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure overhead will build to the east coast through Friday.
655 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather and gradual warming through Friday.
649 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper level low will keep the chance for an isolated shower or two over central NY and northeast PA today. High pressure will build over the region on Friday bringing spring temperatures back to the area.
600 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Drier and warmer weather is forecast for today and most of Friday. Today's drier air mass will provide plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Upper level ridge will build over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight and slowly move eastward through Friday. The next mid level trough will start to deepen over the lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon.
308 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will provide mild and dry weather across central Illinois today. Upper low currently evident on water vapor imagery along the coast of British Columbia is still progged to dig southward across the West Coast of the CONUS over the next few days, causing a persistent piece of energy over the Desert Southwest to eject northeastward by the end of the week.
This evening, as the seabreeze spread north into Alabama, added convergence from outflow and a weak area of low pressure allowed for some stronger storms to develop. By Friday, the influence of short wave ridging will help translate the surface front northward as a warm front ahead of the short wave trough approaching from the west. Temperatures will generally be a little warmer than average, with lows around 70, and highs near 90 away from the beaches.
230 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A weak upper level low will cross the area today and tonight.
Large upper level low showing up quite nicely on wv imagery across the Pacific NW. Cold front associated with this feature has already entered nw MT. Southerly flow ahead of this front sets up a pseudo warm sector and warm front. This unstable air will be the focus of stronger thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening as the cold front sweeps through.
247 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period with morning fog.
133 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Aviation After one more chilly night, with frost and even some freezing temperatures, we will see warmer days and nights ahead.
Water vapor imagery does depict a trough upstream with the primary short wave advancing through the Texas Panhandle.
High pressure building southeast into the region will continue to provide dry conditions and milder, near normal temperatures for Friday.
1049 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will pass through the region tonight. The low-level front which is responsible for driving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening is slowing down but getting close to the WA/ID border. What is remarkable is that this will not be convective precipitation but rather driven but the strong cold front which is showing frontogenetical forcing values off the chart within the 850-700mb layer. /sb 06Z TAFS: A cold front is currently pushing in N Idaho with scattered showers and t-storms developing along a line from Bonners Ferry to Coeur D Alene to Pullman and Lewiston. Mod to heavy rain will incr across the lower ID Panhandle 07-11Z impacting Lewiston 08-10z.
329 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Another clear and cool spring night over the region courtesy of high pressure sprawled out from MI SE across the forecast area.
437 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Southerly winds will increase slightly today as high pressure over the Great Lakes slides east.