Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IDENTIFIED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL COME FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A STRATUS DECK THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE MIXING. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD RIDGING PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. BRISK WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE.
152 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 A FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROFS TO PASS NORTH OF ALABAMA.
Models are in very good agreement with the speed of this system, with trof axis near the MO/KS border at 12z progressing to the lower Ohio River valley by 00z in the evening. The cloudiness associated with this system will likely make Sunday's high temps 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those of today along and west of the Mississippi River. This pattern will keep the colder air bottled up well to the north of the region, so temperatures should remain well above early December averages and have maintained going trends by skewing forecast towards the warmer guidance.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR COOL DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN OUR CWA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT SUNDAY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
212 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING SNOW WAS FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A FAST-MOVING RIDGE PASSES THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL TO START OUT THE NEW WEEK AHEAD OF A TROUGH CARVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO END OUT THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE WIND LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST WHICH MAY LIMIT WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER. PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
305 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 COLD FRONT HAS WORKED THROUGH THE CWA WITH NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF COOLER TEMPS. TOMORROW WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT SEES A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW.
The lower elevations of the Okanogan Valley through Wenatchee area still appear will see limited snow, with more of a rain/snow mix. Adjustments were made to increase temperatures across the eastern CWA, where the combination of more sun and wind may help to mix things up enough to get them a bit warmer than the previous forecast. Cote' 18Z TAFS: An warm front lifts in over colder surface air across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. There could be some patchy freezing rain mixed in, but the risk is slight at this time.
1227 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH WAS ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WHERE 90KT 300MB JET WAS KNIFING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN ANY LIGHT RAIN OCCURS.
LOWER TREASURE DENSE FREEZING FOG /25 DEGREES AND 0. 25 MILE VIS AT ONTARIO/ IS LIFTING PER WEB CAMS WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER BRIDGE AND AIRPORT WERE STILL SOCKED IN. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. MTN VALLEYS AND AREAS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND BAKER VALLEY WILL START OFF WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN LATER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH.
TEMPS FELL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT IS RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH TEMPS ALREADY AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING VERY LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS -- WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL 14Z. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW BLOCKING PATTERN -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY -- TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LA/TX. 15Z OBS SHOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ALTHOUGH THIS IS IN LINE WITH INHERITED GRIDS. AREA IS UNDER A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TROFFING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AN UPPER TROF/LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY.
200 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND.
1240 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING. FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EARLIER. ADDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
LOWS WITH THICK HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING MOST LOCATION NOT UNTIL AFTER BY 3 AM SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 30S WEST TO SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE EAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
236 PM MST SAT DEC 5 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS A PLUME OF AMBLE WATER VAPOR. TO THE WEST DRIER AIR WAS ACCOMPANYING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY LOCATED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEHIND THE TROUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WARMER AIR RETURNS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AT TIMES.
138 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
U/L SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS AN U/L LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE MID WEST AND APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. U/L SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN CREATING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1038 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES.
301 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY. HOWEVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK FROM THE HIGH PEAKS WESTWARD HAS REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER LOW OVERCAST STRATUS DECK. SOME STELLAR UNDERCAST WAS OBSERVED TODAY FROM THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
EVEN THOUGH A TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SET TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WHICH WILL RESULT IN 10 TO 15 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER THAN NORMAL. NEXT SATURDAY WHEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
314 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING WARMER UPSTREAM AIR ACROSS THE MODIFYING SNOWFIELD IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PROPAGATED ALONG A LINE FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WEAK H5 RIDGE BEGIN TO GET PUSHED EWD BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY ACROSS THE US. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
1202 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
237 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 Surface observations show a cold front moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle that will move south overnight and arrive in the area between midnight and sunrise. The supporting upper trough is well north of the area and embedded in zonal westerly flow so there will not be much cold air.
238 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 High clouds starting to overspread area this afternoon in association with upper trough/jet streak approaching from the west. Weak cold front will push through Sunday morning in association with system.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE EXITING TEXAS AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE NOSED DOWN THROUGH EAST TEXAS ACROSS OUR CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD AND ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF DRY.
354 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK.
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS N OF THE AREA. THOUGH THE CHANCES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. BUT SHOULD DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS COOLS AND COASTAL TROUGHING MOVES JUST OFFSHORE.
1109 AM PST SAT DEC 5 2015 TEMPS ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. WHILE THIS COULD RESULT IN COOLER FORECAST HIGHS, I AM HOLDING BACK ON AN UPDATE. WINDS ALOFT ARE INCREASING WITH THE SIERRA RIDGES ALREADY GUSTING 30-40 MPH AND LIKELY TO REACH 75 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WALLMANN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. /ISSUED 305 AM PST SAT DEC 5 2015/ A "DIRTY" (LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS) RIDGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A COLDER START, WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE RETURN OF VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH LIMITED DISPERSION OF PARTICULATES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
1228 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MELTING. AS TROUGH MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1029 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015/ TEMPS FELL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS BUT IS RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH TEMPS ALREADY AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 00Z AS HIGH AS 110 METERS AT KGGW. WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE TROUGH AXIS FROM NEAR THE ID/WY BORDER SWD INTO AZ. EXPECT INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER FOR THE AREA TODAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EWD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATER SUN.
THE GREATEST -DIVQ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OVER OUR AREA WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST A VERY WEAK SFC TROF REFLECTION INDICATED WITH THE UPR TROF PASSAGE.
PERHAPS A REFLECTION OF SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES. 12Z TAF CYCLE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVER NM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THESE CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED CLEARING SKIES EARLIER TODAY. AND WITH LOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND BRING ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET NORTH OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SPOTS. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW OR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW.
327 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RIDGING SLIPPING EWD OVER THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
339 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW-MID 50S OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF FOG. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND SOME COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ISN/T A RIDGE ALL WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME COOLER WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
307 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE HAD FOG AND STATUS THE LAST TWO NIGHTS AND THE AREAS TO THE WEST ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE HAD FOG AND STRATUS AS WELL.
AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE SNOW FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR +10C BY AFTERNOON.
205 PM MST SAT DEC 5 2015 UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE. DRY AND WARMER SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AMS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WAS ROTATING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SUN BEFORE THE WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS WITH THE TROUGH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THESE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
259 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 High pressure is sliding off to the east this afternoon, with south/southeasterly winds across Central Illinois. High pressure and light winds setting up quite the inversion over the region yet again today, effectively trapping llvl moisture and setting up for foggy nights. Temps dropping into the lower 30s, just below freezing before dawn. Not much of a difference across the surface obs this afternoon, but the dense fog has been more likely in the east, closer to the ridge axis.
102 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS A FEW HOURS OUT FOR KDHT AND KGUY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME POCKETS OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGES SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY DESPITE MIXING. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE FRI TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN CO FRI MORNING.
735 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 400 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ WELL IT TURNED OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OUR MORNING UPDATE ALLOWED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SOUTHWEST WIND IS GENERALLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND WE ONLY ROSE TO MEET IT. HIGHS WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AS SKIES BEGIN TO FILL WITH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IS ON APPROACH.
Low level temperature fields warm slightly again on Thursday, so afternoon highs will be a tad warmer.
640 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016 FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED LOW FREEZING RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKER ECHOS OVER PORTIONS OF MCKENZIE INTO NORTHERN DUNN COUNTIES. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN ND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. NOTE THAT WE ARE STILL CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING THE DICKINSON TO BISMARCK CORRIDOR/.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NEXT WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
825 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS PROMOTING A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 31 57 38 52 / 0 0 20 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 55 34 50 / 0 0 10 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 55 35 50 / 0 0 10 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 52 28 49 / 0 0 0 60.
winds are forecast to become breezy in the 10-20kt range with scattered mid/high cloud decks pushing in ahead of a cold front approaching the region. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS AT 3 PM HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SNOW FREE AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH WARM 850MB TEMPS TO KEEP LOWS MILD. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY.
FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED LOW FREEZING RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKER ECHOS OVER PORTIONS OF MCKENZIE INTO NORTHERN DUNN COUNTIES. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN ND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. NOTE THAT WE ARE STILL CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING THE DICKINSON TO BISMARCK CORRIDOR/.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TO MAINLY THE UPPER 30S EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN PORTIONS WITH NO OVERNIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO FCST.
STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST WITH THICKENING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
BROAD MID AND UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN U. THIS WILL ENABLE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXCEPT FOR THE FACT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS BEING QUITE THICK OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
630 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
954 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE WEST ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN IN THE EAST. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET UP THERE WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT THE COLD AIR IN THE LOW LYING AREAS TO MIX OUT. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS FM 06-12Z TNGT. IT WILL BE BREEZY COOLER THU WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL.
441 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016 WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR AREA.
631 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
422 PM MST WED JAN 13 2016 WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 20S.
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD THE COURSE UNTIL THE 00Z GFS AND A FEW MORE RAP/HRRR RUNS COME IN LATER TONIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA WHERE TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER. AT THIS POINT WPC/FGF AND OTHER OFFICES ARE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PUT THE MOST SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
A WARM FRONT AS PUSHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS FLOW VEERS A LITTLE MORE NE, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST TO LOW-MID 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
Rain which has fallen in many locations today could begin to freeze on roadways with sunset, due to the fact that sub- surface temperatures remain below freezing. Cooler air moving into the region will cause the rain to transition to snow sometime between 14/0000Z and 14/0600Z. Some pockets of light freezing rain may mix with the snow during this evening.