Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH PROBABLY AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY BUT SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT DECREASES AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN U. AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
HAVE GONE THEN INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS DEEPENING TROUGH GETS NEARER. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVERING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S AND THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. AS A STRONG TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES TONIGHT.
Winds will become elevated and gusty out of the north this morning as a cold front moves into the area. /issued 400 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ WV imagery shows an upper lvl trough entering the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under continued NW flow aloft. Sfc observations indicate a weak cold front filtering south into the area, which should keep temps closer to normal this afternoon, as did yesterday's front. Models follow the upper trough mentioned above with another over the next 24 hours, dropping a secondary cold into the area Tuesday, so we've stayed toward the cooler side of guidance thru then.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF EAST TENNESSEE AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 1000 AM. HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES. EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 17-18Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS TOO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 39 53 38 / 90 100 60 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 36 48 35 / 90 100 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 36 47 35 / 100 100 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 36 42 32 / 90 100 60 60 TN.
RIDGING WILL BUILD UPSTREAM. AND THE UNDERLYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH RIDGING UPSTREAM.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH.
621 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KPRX /PARIS/ TO KINJ /HILLSBORO/ TO KMKN /HAMILTON/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED MIDDLE-TO-LATE THIS WEEK. A ridge of high pressure will remain over most of the region as a low pressure area moves to the north of the area today.
657 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 AVIATION SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 339 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ IN THE WAKE OF A MINOR TROUGH THAT MANAGED TO GENERATE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA OVER OVER THE SERN PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED IN NERN NM WILL TRANSLATE SEWD UNDER DRY NW FLOW. DEPARTURE OF THIS RIDGE BY LATE MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN NM COMPLETE WITH SOME BREEZY W-SW WINDS LOCALLY. SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER W-NW BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT AND DISTANT TROUGH TRACKING ALONG THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS READILY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BOISTEROUS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS EFFECTIVELY MOISTENED THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BELOW 825 MB. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
415 AM MST MON FEB 15 2016 VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH MANY LOWER DESERTS APPROACHING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXES WILL AMPLIFY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MIGRATES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACHES THE FORECAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
539 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 A weak low-level trough moving into eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas early this morning has kicked off a few light showers with a light wintry mix spreading into far northern Missouri. A mix of snow, sleet and rain/freezing rain has been reported with this activity over parts of Iowa and Nebraska although accumulations have been very light. Once Tuesday's system pushes to the east, a slow-moving upper ridge to the west will gradually push east into the Plains and Midwest through the remainder of the week.
ITS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS IT CONTS SE INTO IA BY 12Z/TUE. 547 AM: SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT A COUPLE DEGS WARMER.
635 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER AIR/RIDGING IS HOLDING ON ACROSS SE TX SO FAR THIS MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. BUT A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA PER 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. WITH THE HIGHEST NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON METRO /CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL DISTURBANCE/.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS TEMPORARILY BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH A MUCH WEAKER FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS REORIENTS FROM A POSITION NORTH OF OUR AREA TO ONE THAT IS MORE TYPICALLY AMPLIFIED EAST OF OUR AREA.
746 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S UT AND N AZ ACROSS N CA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN TRINITY COUNTY CLOSER TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND AWAY FROM THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE S. ALTHO THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK. MOIST S FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SW U. RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR THRU THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST SEAS PER THE WAVE MODEL WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF PZZ470.
1031 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A RESULT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CLEARING OUR AREA NOW. WORKING IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 69 82 69 / 90 80 70 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 67 79 69 / 100 80 70 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 68 79 69 / 100 80 70 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 65 78 66 / 90 80 70 60.
817 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK. KMD 248 AM CDT ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO FILTER SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A HAIR COOLER.
948 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
1026 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUT SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AM.
1104 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
A COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
628 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AN AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW- LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
SLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LVLS WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BUT A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL HELP TO LIMIT DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES EXPANDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 50H RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
706 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN UPPER TROUGH. A TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL GENERATE A GRADIENT THRU LATE MORNING.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THERE. DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE BEST LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED WEAKER LIFT THIS EVENING BEHIND SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM TODAY SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL GOING AS A RESULT.
708 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
/ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/ MID 70S ON AVERAGE AND JUST A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING UNDER A DEVELOPING MID DECK AND CIRRUS FROM AN MCS OVER N AR AND S MO.
746 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S. BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THIS FCST CYCLE. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WERE CARRIED PRIMARILY OVER THE RIDGES AND AROUND MORGANTOWN. WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHICH LEADS TO A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF ENCROACHMENT IN THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. AND GRADUALLY SETTLE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/ A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
DRY AND COOLER FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS STAYING BELOW 90F FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 29C. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DURING SAT. THEN DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES E SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT S THROUGH N MT ON SAT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW SAT NIGHT/S FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. A MORE ACTIVE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER THE TUE NIGHT COLD FRONT. WITH COOLER CONDITIONS.
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH.
However, there will be a surface cold front coming in from the northwest. Ceilings will then rise this afternoon with winds shifting to the north behind a low pressure system.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH.
1246 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND FRIDAY AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE.
654 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AM.
639 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 248 AM CDT ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO FILTER SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A HAIR COOLER.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
In fact, most of the events in the coming week repeat the same pattern with a little bit of MUCAPE seen advecting north across the region head of a progressive trough.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE ARKLATEX. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEST OF THE RIDGE. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WITH SWRN FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
With no consistency in the models, will continue to play a middle of the road solution with a chance of rain and cooler conditions.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RELAX SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS INCLUDING KBZN.
As trof moves eastward, cooler air moves in behind and lows fall into he 20s to middle 30s. On Monday another mid level trough tracks over the central US, which should not have much effect on the overall weather. Highs will be cooler in the mid to upper 40s.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WAA PATTERN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS GLAKES AND THEN UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY. PRIMARILY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
Highs today will be mild and from 55 to 60 degrees, except slightly cooler from around Dodge City to Jetmore where lingering snow pack will likely melt mostly away. This wave will bring a cold front across western Kansas in the evening with winds shifting to the northwest 10 to 20 mph. Highs on Monday, with light and variable winds, will be cooler and around 50 degrees as cooler high pressure settles into the area.
77 /ISSUED 139 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. WE WILL SEE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEK LONG AS A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TODAY IS BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER PARTY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE.
A STUBBORN DRY LAYER RESIDING NEAR THE H85-H70 LAYER ALONG WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING FILTERING IN DRIER/COOLER AIR. WITH WEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS/FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND MID 30S-LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE A MINOR EMBEDDED TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWFA.
1252 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SO A LITTLE BIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION ON FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH IN SE MT AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXITS LATER THAT DAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO THEN RETURN TO RIDGING BEHIND THIS TROUGH.
These southerly winds were beginning to bring moisture from the Gulf into the plains and the Ozarks and will be the impetus along with a cold front, for rain later today. Confidence is fairly high that precipitation will develop late this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves towards the region. First, a rapidly tightening surface pressure gradient across the plains in advance of the cold front will bring breezy/gusty conditions to the area. The cold front and rain will push east of the region by midday Monday with a slightly cooler airmass moving in behind the front.
204 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHALLOW RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS PINAL/GILA/EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTIES. GENERALLY WARMER AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INDICATING A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS SW AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR NE AREAS.
1130 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40 OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN.
1019 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN. WITH COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES REGION. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD AS NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN COOLER AIR. BUT SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL SD. WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING NE WY INTO NW SD WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
333 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.