Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BUT FOR NOW WITH THE PRECIP COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TRIMMED QPF JUST A TAD FROM THE RED WESTWARD AS SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE NW AREA OF PCPN WILL FINALLY MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE BUT THE SOUTHERN ONE WILL BE THE ONE THAT HAS THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND MOST OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS LOW DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
BEFORE CIG/VIS LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS AT EACH SITE LATE TONIGHT FROM SW TO NE AS A BROAD AREA OF -SHRA MOCE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
MODELS STILL TRY TO INCREASE THE OVERALL LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ALSO REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS CYCLE AND DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY SITE.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS LOW DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THE NW AREA OF PCPN WILL FINALLY MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE BUT THE SOUTHERN ONE WILL BE THE ONE THAT HAS THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND MOST OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA. STRONG LOW TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL KEEP THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND FORCES A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A DECENT AREA OF RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS LOW. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY GOOD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN A TOPIC THE PAST 3 OR 4 DAYS IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER TO PROMOTE DECENT UPPER DECK DIFFLUENCE. BOTH WILL TEAM TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT: THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO DECELLERATE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST KS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SE OF THIS AREA DEEP BRISK NW FLOW SPREADS SE ACROSS KS THEREBY SHUNTING THE SEVERE THREAT S-SE OF KICT COUNTRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE OCEAN WHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW RESULTED IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE OCEAN. THIS DISTURBANCE TRIGGERED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST CA AND THE FAR NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION INITIATION WILL ONLY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA.
613 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AIDED BY A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER IS UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CRASH THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL LIFT OUT AND COLLIDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FORMING A VERY LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW. UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE SHARPLY ACROSS NRN CANADA SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH CIRCULATE COOL AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
755 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE TROF / FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED OUT OF MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK SETTING UP GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS AND HIGHER AXIS OF MUCAPE NOSING UP INTO THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FOR LATE TONIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO CONTINUE SCT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST THAT IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE MODEST WARM ADVECTION REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WERE BEING REACHED ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WAS MERGING WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED E-NE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KS. 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CO WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY ORGANIZING INTO ONE PRIMARY LOW OVER IL OR INDIANA LATE SUNDAY THAT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BECOME PHASED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH. SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING AND THE SYSTEM FIGHTING DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MS SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
/ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST TO EAST. BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST.
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AIDED BY A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER IS UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CRASH THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL LIFT OUT AND COLLIDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FORMING A VERY LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW. UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE SHARPLY ACROSS NRN CANADA SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH CIRCULATE COOL AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
641 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MUCH NEEDED PRECIP OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FRONT PLAINS WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CANADA IS TRAILING A TROUGH THAT IS CAUSING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO KEEP MOVING EWRD. THE CLOUD SHIELD/PLUME WILL BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA AS THE ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS EAST. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF MINNESOTA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACNW.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE WRN KS REGION. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH WRN NEB AND THE DAKOTAS. DRIVEN BY THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IS A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 77 61 72 / 100 80 40 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 74 60 71 / 100 90 40 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 74 60 70 / 100 90 40 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 68 56 69 / 70 100 60 60.
1038 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.
THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PRECIPICE OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SLOWLY SHIFTING AND INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES S/SE ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 427 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN COLORADO. THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SEWD.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
821 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
Disturbances in the cyclonic flow around an upper level low over southeastern Canada will keep a good deal of clouds and the chance for showers in the forecast for much of the area today.
WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AT 35N 135W AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM AN OPEN WAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW. A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARDS AND THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
Temps will likely be above freezing in most locations so will keep pcpn type liquid though a few locations may report a brief mix northeast of I-74 and near the Indiana border. A surge of cold air will push into the area following a cold frontal passage during the day Friday.
154 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
454 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY EVENING SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 VFR with increasing mid and high clouds ahead of upper low. Will see a backdoor cold front this evening with the wind shifting around to the E/NE. Weak upper ridging and returning southerly winds will allow for a quick warm-up this afternoon. A weak cold front will slowly move across the area tonight before washing out during the day Friday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will move onshore into S CA and weaken late this week.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED AXIS AND MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. CLOUDS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS THICK AS ANTICIPATED AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN AXIS OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING BUT A TRAILING VORT MAX KEEPS POPS GOING. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS WELL.
447 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. AND 50S-60S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING NWD THROUGH AZ AND NM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
322 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK INVERTED TROF RAN FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.
1145 AM MDT THU APR 7 2016 LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES IN THE PICTURE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC IS THE CULPRIT BEHIND THIS INCREASED MOISTURE BUT AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE FORCING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE MORE AN OPEN WAVE/TROUGH THAN ANY LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO QUITE WARM SO SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WAS CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR CWA.
TONIGHT THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. SOME COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS AT MASON CITY AND WATERLOO WELL PAST 09Z.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS FRIDAY. BUT WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO TAKE HOLD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US. TEMPS TONIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT COOLER.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow causing the diurnal driven cumulus.
A cold front is making its way south into the area this afternoon, and will begin affecting KABI later this afternoon, turning winds from southwest to northeast by 00Z. A cold front will move south through the area tonight with winds shifting to the east. /issued 346 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Today will be sunny and dry with afternoon highs in the mid 80s, around 10 degrees warmer than average for this date. Upper level ridging will continue to build into the area from the west while at the surface a weak cold front will move south through the forecast area overnight tonight shifting winds to the east. lows tomorrow morning under mostly clear skies will be in the low to mid 50s, still around 5 degrees warmer than average for this date.
214 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR DATA HAS A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOW/MID 30S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AS WELL AS SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO UTAH TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH INTO UTAH BEGINNING FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO UTAH LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
Wind speeds will continue to decrease later this evening as high pressure builds in from the north, resulting in a clear and cool night with temps dropping into mid-upper 30s in parts of northeast OK and northwest AR. High pressure will remain over the area most of the day Friday and bring a welcome reprieve from wind.
PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER FRIDAY. WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE STATE.
AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MN AND WI. ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO OUR REGION. ALONG WITH THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WEST CENTRAL WI ON FRIDAY MORNING.
434 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS WE NOW WILL WATCH THE COLD FRONT PASS OVER THE REGION. A SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL WORK AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. /ISSUED 543 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016/ A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THIS STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A BROAD LONG WAVE TROF POSITIONED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LEAD SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MADE PASSAGE LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID- SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THRU KDHT AND KGUY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STARTING TO SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND UP SOME A LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY AND SHIFT UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
341 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CALI COAST. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH THIS GENERALLY MILD/DRY WX FOR A- NOTHER DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST HOLDS UP. AS THE A- FOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEST. A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED SAT THEN EVOLVING INTO A SWLY FLOW AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW IS LEADING TO SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND INLAND ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH DEVELOPING. THE ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS TO THE COAST FOR COOLER CONDITIONS - HIGHS NEAR 60. A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER MARINE AIR FARTHER INLAND.
547 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MN. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. AND WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST ND AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTH MAN AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. MAN TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MAN SAT NIGHT.
ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER GREAT BASIN WILL SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DIMINISHES. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER US THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM HE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DECREASE AND DIMINISH SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST WHILE FORTUNATELY THE LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS WEAKEN. WILL SEE COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES. WARMER DAY ON TAP AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE SLOWLY ALONG WITH MODERATING AIRMASS AND WARMING 700 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THICKNESSES.
Weak cold front is about halfway through the forecast area at this time.
139 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE QUITE STRONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE H850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3C TO 5C DEGREES WARMER.
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE IN THE COL REGION BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
324 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
12z KILX sounding suggests slightly cooler than going package but already undercutting GFS LAMP and new MET guidance so will leave at current values. Along with this, scattered showers will be possible, with the highest pops being in the southwest and south, which will be closest to the main dynamics of the wave. Temperatures continue to cool through the end of the week as several waves of chilly air dig into the trof over the eastern half of the CONUS, keeping temperatures a few degrees below normal.