Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Large dewpoint depressions at the surface indicate wet bulb temperatures in the lower to mid 30s, so evaporative cooling with the onset of precipitation is supporting wet snow to the surface at lower elevations.
540 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (This afternoon through Monday Night) The upper low that brought rain and wind this morning has quickly moved north and we're seeing gusts weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit.
Lows will be cooler, with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and into the 30s across the region.
(Tonight) Reinforcing cold front is currently moving eastward thru the mid TN Valley this Sun evening, with some lingering cloud cover remaining in place due to a persistent SW flow regime. The front should exit the area later this evening, with some slightly cooler/drier air filtering into the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Overnight lows look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 40s for most spots.
Boundary layer remains fairly dry, so kept POPs on the low end.
A weak cold front is currently moving across central Brevard and central Osceola counties. The cold front will help to bring temperatures closer to normal after a day of several record high temperatures. Southwest winds around 10-12 kts will continue to veer northwest with the passage of a cold front. (00Z TAFS) TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR CIGs BKN005-015 behind a cold front.
A cooling trend will continue for Monday as a low pressure area moves through the region late tonight through Monday night. Models are however indicating most of the precipitation occuring over the higher elevations.
High clouds are currently streaming across the Northern Plains ahead of this low. At the surface, high pressure is located across the Central Plains, with weak surface trof lifting through the forecast area. Southwestern Canada upper low and associated western CONUS trof will continue to dig southeast, with surface cold front crossing the forecast area late tonight into Monday morning.
506 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) A weak cold front is moving through the area today. It isn't much of a cold front since afternoon highs are generally warmer than yesterday, but it is bringing a northerly wind shift that will come back around out of the southwest tonight. Zonal flow over the western United States will quickly usher in an upper trough to the Great Plains on Monday. The jet stream on the southern edge of the trough will strengthen as it reaches the Guadalupe Mountains beginning on Monday.
716 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Latest CAMs and sounding profiles favor some freezing drizzle setting up over the tip of the Arrowhead early Monday morning.
522 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Tonight) Winds have been slow to die down this afternoon, but will lessen as the low level pressure gradient broadens out as high pressure to our west gains more of an influence. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s as southwesterly flow remains aloft.
Breezy to windy conditions have developed ahead of the incoming trough and associated surface front. Tue afternoon appears quiet, then another trough starts bringing precipitation into the central Idaho mountains and along the Montana-Idaho border.
The light rain has diminished across the area as high pressure and clearing skies edge in from the west. Temperatures this afternoon were in the low to mid 40s for most locations.
Near surface winds across the islands have been light and variable over the past several hours, as the Keys are sitting under the axis of weak surface ridging extending from the Atlantic. Surface dewpoint depressions could drop to 5 degrees or less as the larger islands of the lower Keys radiate in the light near surface flow.
/NEW/ Drier and slightly cooler air will continue to filter into the region tonight behind a secondary cold front.
King (This afternoon through Monday) Cold front has moved through the remainder of the CWA and precip has exited the area.
401 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 The low pressure system which brought showers and a windy day is over the lower Great Lakes late Sunday, and quickly departing to the northeast. With its departure and high pressure building in from the west, winds will continue to subside tonight. This low-mid level moisture will be carried southeast over the forecast area tonight. Brief dry stretch gives way to strong cold front.
Seasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast through today before a couple of systems pass through the district this week leading to cooler conditions and unsettled weather. Short range guidance is indicating an inside-slider trough system that is likely to produce little to zero precipitation for the forecast area.
A cooling trend will continue for Monday as a low pressure area moves through the region late tonight through Monday night. Models are however indicating most of the precipitation occurring over the higher elevations.
The large-scale flow across the continent will maintain a relatively low amplitude throughout the period, though higher amplitude ridging will persist off both coasts.
Recent radar trends show snow bands developing behind the main cold frontal band, so additional shower chances have been added to the forecast.
Some fog was added to the forecast late this afternoon in areas with the lowest forecast dew point depression and wind speed combination and will let this mention ride as is for now.
(This afternoon through Monday) Cold front has moved through the remainder of the CWA and precip has exited the area.
523 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022 EVENING UPDATE: Radar is a little more active than originally anticipated so raised POPS to reflect a little more expansive precipitation along the frontal band as well as a few wrap around snow showers during the overnight period as the Low in Saskatchewan tracks east just north of the International border.
151 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2022 Current surface map places cold front across far northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming. Cold front moves through the forecast area this morning with breezy northwest winds. Upper trough over western CONUS continues to dig southward today, with trough crossing the plains on Tuesday.
High pressure sits to our south with a trough along the Lee of the Rocky Mountains.
(Today through Tuesday) With upper level trough passage expected as morning hours progress, mentioned a slight chance of showers with areas of drizzle for entire mid state region until mid morning hours today. High pressure influences building from our southwest will result in temperatures around seasonal normal values today with lows tonight on mild side, mainly mid 40s, upper 30s to lower 40s Cumberland Plateau Region. A warm front will be draped to its southeast and a strong cold front stretching to its southwest. Still looks like instability will be limited ahead of frontal passage, across our area per investigation of several model sounding profiles, but as mentioned in latest SPC Day Two Convective Outlook, large scale ascent should be quite focused due to approaching upper level trough.
A weak cool front will move down into southern Louisiana before falling apart late tonight and this will be the reason for the cooler overnight temps.
An upper level closed low moving across southern SK/MB will continue to gradually move eastward across the forecast period. At the surface, a cold front, currently analyzed over west central North Dakota, will continue to push eastward as well. This cold front will be the primary driver for precipitation across the region throughout the day. Prior to the cold frontal passage, despite mostly cloudy skies, with southerly surface winds, look for high temperatures to generally reach the 30s. Behind the cold front, winds will also become a bit gusty out of the west in the 15-20 kt range primarily across the Devils Lake basin. Otherwise, cooler air looks to filter into the region moving into Tuesday, with high temperatures falling to near normal values in the 20s.
The light rain has diminished across the area as high pressure and clearing skies edge in from the west. Temperatures this afternoon were in the low to mid 40s for most locations. 2) Colder mid week then warmer again. Details: Tuesday and Tuesday night: A progressive and positive-tilted trough will track across the Plains and Midwest. A decent cold front will sweep across the cwa during the afternoon and evening.
145 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 Fair and warm weather expected today and Tuesday as high pressure and drier air build in.
/Issued 1146 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/ /Overnight through Tuesday/ High pressure is centered over North Texas tonight with light winds and clear skies. A deepening lee cyclone over southeast Colorado will induce strengthening southerly flow across the Plains later today. Highs on Tuesday will be unseasonably warm (10-15 degrees above normal) as southwesterly winds develop across North Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ An upper trough will be swinging through the Southern and Central Plains with a strong cold front quickly approaching the Red River by early Tuesday evening.
Dry and warmer conditions return for the second half of the work week with a weak storm system potentially impacting the region over the weekend. The flow pattern will become more west to southwesterly for the second half of the work week with southeast Arizona between a subtropical high over the Gulf of Mexico and troughiness over the Pacific NW.
1024 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) A weak cold front is moving through the area today. It isn't much of a cold front since afternoon highs are generally warmer than yesterday, but it is bringing a northerly wind shift that will come back around out of the southwest tonight. Zonal flow over the western United States will quickly usher in an upper trough to the Great Plains on Monday. The jet stream on the southern edge of the trough will strengthen as it reaches the Guadalupe Mountains beginning on Monday.
940 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Issued 940 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022) Skies cleared quickly this evening as low pressure departed from the region. Winds are light out of the north now as high pressure settles in, but look for variable winds overnight, and then southerly winds developing Monday morning. Patchy dense freezing fog is possible for inland areas. Cronce (Issued 202 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022) Tonight through Monday night: The rain will continue to clear from west to east along with the low level clouds. Gusty northerly winds will become light and variable overnight as high pressure moves overhead resulting in a pleasant start to the week with highs in the 40s.
(Today and tonight) Rather benign westerly flow aloft today will back southwesterly tonight ahead of a broad trough digging into the central Rockies. Lee troughing currently from the TX/NM border north to the Big Horns will gradually sharpen all the while lee cyclogenesis focuses over southeast CO later today.
330 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Today -- Temperatures today will be near normal with light winds as short- wavelength split flow in the upper levels and lower-level ridging and high pressure translate through the area. -- Midweek -- The Colorado low that will develop later today, in response to an amplifying Rossby wave trough with advection of +PV anomaly, will hook toward Wisconsin and Lake Superior while deepening Tuesday night.
High clouds are currently streaming across the Northern Plains ahead of this low. At the surface, high pressure is located across the Central Plains, with weak surface trof lifting through the forecast area. Southwestern Canada upper low and associated western CONUS trof will continue to dig southeast, with surface cold front crossing the forecast area late tonight into Monday morning. Upper trof axis crosses the Northern Plains Tuesday night as system shifts east.
High pressure should move into the area at the surface this evening. A strong upper level jet will begin to carve out a trough over the Rockies on Monday. Low pressure will begin to develop over the high plains late Monday into Monday night and a strong low level jet will develop over the area Monday night. A decent pressure gradient will set up over the area ahead of the low and we could start to see some gusty winds developing as early as Monday night. This will continue into Tuesday with the approach of the cold front. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Tuesday ahead of the front with highs in the low to mid 60s.
An H3 150 knot jet will start digging into the western CONUS tonight as an upper low transitions across southern Canada. At the surface, a cold front will move across much of the CWA overnight. Most of the higher snowfall totals are south of the CWA but some ensemble models place chances of 1 inch snowfall into Deuel, Hamlin, and Clark counties and southwest into Buffalo, Lyman, and Jones counties. The ECMWF ensemble has the highest chances of 24-hour total QPF > 0.
(Today and tonight) An upper trough will dig southeast across the Intermountain West today, and into the central Rockies tonight. With south-southwest winds, temperatures will be considerably warmer tonight compared to the previous night. Expect overnight lows to be mostly in the lower 50s.
On the surface, an area of low pressure is located over New England with a cold front extending south- southwest through the western Atlantic, across central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The front weakens over southern Florida later today as high pressure builds in from the north with rain-free conditions expected late Monday and Tuesday. Another area of low pressure and associated cold front moves through the central U.
(Today and tonight) Key Message: Cooler temperatures expected today, and skies should begin to clear out in the afternoon.
336 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 Dry high pressure will continue to build in from the west today.
Zonal flow aloft was underway while a Canadian high pressure center had pushed into the I-20 corridor of Louisiana and Mississippi. Even warmer weather is expected for Tuesday with highs in the 60s. This warmer weather will not last long as a fast moving cold front approaches Tuesday PM. A cold front will pass through the region late afternoon and evening Tuesday. Only a few members were pulling more than 300 j/kg, with the highest member only producing 679 j/kg.
1230 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 A dry cold front will move through the area this morning. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday.
1025 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Tonight) Reinforcing cold front is currently moving eastward thru the mid TN Valley this Sun evening, with some lingering cloud cover remaining in place due to a persistent SW flow regime. The front should exit the area later this evening, with some slightly cooler/drier air filtering into the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Overnight lows look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 40s for most spots.
459 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022 (Today through Tuesday) With upper level trough passage expected as morning hours progress, mentioned a slight chance of showers with areas of drizzle for entire mid state region until mid morning hours today. High pressure influences building from our southwest will result in temperatures around seasonal normal values today with lows tonight on mild side, mainly mid 40s, upper 30s to lower 40s Cumberland Plateau Region. A warm front will be draped to its southeast and a strong cold front stretching to its southwest. Still looks like instability will be limited ahead of frontal passage, across our area per investigation of several model sounding profiles, but as mentioned in latest SPC Day Two Convective Outlook, large scale ascent should be quite focused due to approaching upper level trough.
318 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022 An Upper level trough will eject out of the Pacific Northwest and southern Canada today and will move towards the Central and Northern Plains. Lows across central Kansas will be in the low 30s while southeast Kansas will see lows in the upper 40s. ; The surface cold front is expected to move through Tuesday morning with temperatures quickly falling to near or below freezing behind it.
A cold front associated with this low will move west to east across western and central North Dakota through the morning. That said, light snow will be possible in the northwest and north central through tonight where wrap around moisture will linger until the low shifts east early Tuesday.
926 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 Reinforcing cold front moving through the CWA this morning. As the day progresses the flow aloft will transition from SW to zonal followed by weak ridging. Given the ample sunshine and the weak ridge aloft the expectation is that high temperatures today will be as warm if not warmer than yesterday. Have used the NBM95%% to illustrate expected highs of upper 60s to low 70s area wide (nearly 10 degrees above normal) with the exception of the far NE GA mountains where highs are expected to peak in the low 60s.
726 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 The cold front and few showers still lingering along the boundary are across our southern-most zones, and causing some low clouds and light patchy fog as well. Tonight is a bit cooler as more dry air moves into the area. Lows in the lower 50s north to the mid 60s south.
As the day progresses the flow aloft will transition from SW to zonal followed by weak ridging. Given the ample sunshine and the weak ridge aloft the expectation is that high temperatures today will be as warm if not warmer than yesterday. Have used the NBM95%% to illustrate expected highs of upper 60s to low 70s area wide (nearly 10 degrees above normal) with the exception of the far NE GA mountains where highs are expected to peak in the low 60s.
A deep longwave upper trough has become established over Montana overnight, with strong disturbances moving west to east across the northern half of the forecast area overnight resulting in intense convective snow bands/squalls. This locally intense snow shower activity will diminish as the surface frontal boundary moves south as a cold front this morning into the afternoon and the upper disturbance tracks east of the forecast area. A relative lull in snow shower activity is expected today as arctic air moves south into the region behind the departing disturbance, but another disturbance dives southeast into far southwest Montana tonight and will likely help focus snow shower activity again over far southwest Montana, though temperatures will become cold enough through the lower atmosphere to largely preclude dendritic snow formation over much of the CWA by Tuesday afternoon.
Upper-level flow is becoming more zonal this morning ahead of a trough digging across the Pacific northwest. Surface ridging stretching from the southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley has created for a calm, but cold night with lows in the 20s. Further northwest, a cold front will begin pushing into north central Kansas in the early morning hours Tuesday with colder air filtering in to the region. Temperature profiles would support drizzle with a period of freezing drizzle possible as temperatures cool during the day Tuesday.
310 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2022 Fast moving cold front dropped through the CWA last evening. However, flow aloft remains cyclonic and there will be weak upslope in the lower levels with some energy within the general flow.
533 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022 An Upper level trough will eject out of the Pacific Northwest and southern Canada today and will move towards the Central and Northern Plains. Lows across central Kansas will be in the low 30s while southeast Kansas will see lows in the upper 40s. ; The surface cold front is expected to move through Tuesday morning with temperatures quickly falling to near or below freezing behind it.
Winter weather is expected, mainly in the form of snow but probably some freezing drizzle along and ahead of the leading edge of precipitation. * The cold front bringing this precipitation will also bring gusty northerly winds.
623 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 Fair and warm weather expected today and Tuesday as high pressure and drier air build in.
Cirrostratus will increase from the west by late this afternoon and continue to spread eastward over most of OK this evening within WSW flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper level trough entering the northern Rockies.
522 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022 (Today and tonight) Rather benign westerly flow aloft today will back southwesterly tonight ahead of a broad trough digging into the central Rockies. Lee troughing currently from the TX/NM border north to the Big Horns will gradually sharpen all the while lee cyclogenesis focuses over southeast CO later today.
* Windy conditions developing late today and continuing tomorrow as a cold front moves through the area. Despite the lower sun angle, expect fog to mix out in the 15-16Z time frame. Southerly winds will be on the increase today as two areas of low pressure approach from the west. The southerly winds will draw warmer air into the region, resulting in temperatures a few degrees above seasonal norms despite the cool start. Models hint that stratus is expected to develop in the vicinity of strong cold front approaching from the northwest. This low-lying stratus appears to be sufficiently thick to lead to the potential for drizzle near the front. With the passage of the cold front, have temperatures falling throughout the day. Winds will also be gusty behind the cold front.
Cold front is making its way eastward across the western Dakotas at this time. Even though the cold front moves through, the stronger cold air advection holds off until this evening, so should still see temps rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s which is near to slightly above normal for most locations.
The primary change in the short term will be an increase of cloud cover across the region today which will keep highs slightly cooler.
Deep layered mean ridging over Cuba and the Bahamas is expected to shift westward by late this week while building, then maintaining, 500 mb heights near 591 Dm. The deep ridging passing by just to our south will also keep the troughing extending from low pressure over the southern Canadian prairies from allowing any heavy weather forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night across the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from this latitude. However, gradually deepending moisture in the lower tropospheric easteries with some mid-level moisture being lifted around the northwest quadrant of the flat mid-level ridge may allow for slight to low chances for showers.
Abundant sunshine and 925 mb temperatures suggest that highs could warm into the lower to mid 60s today.
618 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually build into Pennsylvania the next couple of days.
622 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 Aviation -- Today -- Temperatures today will be near normal with light winds as short- wavelength split flow in the upper levels and lower-level ridging and high pressure translate through the area. -- Midweek -- The Colorado low that will develop later today, in response to an amplifying Rossby wave trough with advection of +PV anomaly, will hook toward Wisconsin and Lake Superior while deepening Tuesday night.
632 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Cooler temperatures expected today, and skies should begin to clear out in the afternoon.
It's a chilly night tonight as temperatures in the high elevation basins have dropped into the low teens. Monday afternoon high temperatures will top out in the 40s for the high country, with 50s and 60s in the valleys. The cold front set to impact Arizona in the next couple days is tied to an area of low pressure bringing accumulating snows to our north. The main impacts from this system will be high winds followed by cooler temperatures. This is why a Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the northern Arizona high country, as well as vulnerable locations downslope of the high terrain. High temperatures on Tuesday will likely be stuck in the 30s and 40s for the upper elevations with 50s in the lower elevations.