Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. 41 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
956 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN RAPID CITY AND PHILIP MOVING EASTWARD. RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY TEMPS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE HILLS.
WILL KEEP THE SILENT 10 ISOLATED POP FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT EVERYBODY SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER TX WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A LOW AMPLITUDE POLAR TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
743 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
727 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST FROM TEXAS DOMINATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 61 84 63 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 55 81 58 / 0 0 10 10.
/ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Look for another hot and dry day across West Central Texas today, before another cold front brings cooler air and rain chances tonight.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
533 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT IS POSSIBLE 2+ INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN AN ISOLATED AREA IF A STRONGER STORM CELL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE A QUICK TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAISE HEIGHTS ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. BUT MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AT CRAIG AND SURROUNDING COLD SPOTS DO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING.
811 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. NO CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER YESTERDAY READINGS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF LIMITED AFTERNOON INSOLATION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
16Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN NWRN OK. DPTS REMAIN POOLED IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH 16Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR WWR TO PNC AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.
Most importantly, our sounding profile indicates a long, skinny CAPE profile with mid level lapse rates of only 5 C/km (resulting in a less robust updraft strength), along with high freezing levels.
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SWINGS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IT WILL ALSO FEEL A BIT HUMID.
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOW TO MID TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. HOT CONDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES JUST A TOUCH TOWARDS THE NORTH. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES OUR AREA WITH HOTTER TEMPS EXPECTED AND LOW RAIN CHANCES.
1246 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TN VALLEY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FARTHER WEST INTO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG TO AHEAD OF SOUTHEASTERLY MOVING COLD FRONT. UPDATE TEMPERED DOWN POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ALONG TO SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AS THE POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ND.
AND BROAD BUT DIFFUSE FORCING GENERATED BY A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST TODAY WAS THE LOWERING OF POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES. RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AGAIN WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
212 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AVIATION A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
1252 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE US. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NWRN ND. THE H5 TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED SFC FOCUS IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXISTS. COULDN/T RULE OUT A STRAY TSRA IN THE PINE RIDGE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IT IN THE FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE EXITING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS PRODUCED A DEEP MARINE LAYER NEAR 2500 FEET THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO PLAYING A KEY ROLE AS SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING THESE STORMS TAMPED DOWN. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE A RINSE AND REPEAT AS THE RIDGE TAKES MORE OF A COMMANDING ROLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1212 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL START TO RETROGRADE AND MOVE BACK INLAND AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR EAST, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS HIGHER, BUT MAY REACH UP TO THE MID-UPPER 80S IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S.
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY.
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN SOURIS/WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. COOLER FOR SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THANKS TO CAA AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
The trough axis that fueled some of today's showers will be shifting northeast of the region, keeping forcing for organized convection minimal, and severe weather chances fairly low despite very slightly increasing deep-layer shear.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SUPPORT AND ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THIS CWA TODAY. SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THANKS TO AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS/STORMS.
608 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO ILLINOIS.
ALBEIT A TAD WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN AND PROGRESSING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK (WITH MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES) DUE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AS THIS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS. ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE N AND MEET UP WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF SE MT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS. MAIN MESSAGE TODAY IS COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH CLEARING SKIES BACK TO THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY.
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT GOOD VENTING IN STORMS.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist during this time for far northwest Montana, particularly over the high terrain in and surrounding Glacier Park. Locations above 5500 feet and valleys near the Continental Divide will once again cool down to near freezing tonight, with another round of frost possible. Cover sensitive plants! Brief high pressure Sunday night will be quickly supplanted by southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER/NORTH OF THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ABOVE THE LOWEST LEVEL WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCE TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THEIR USUAL LOW 70S.
210 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE THESE THREATS INDICATED IN GRIDS AND ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CEN AND ERN HALF GIVEN ADDITIONAL AID OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND UPR DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. A MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP MUCH SHARPER AT H25 AND H5 WILL DEEPEN AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING THE FEATURE JUST EAST ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH MID WEEK ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BUT BY WED.
/ISSUED 1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ RIDGING STILL LOOKING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY ONLY THE FAR SW OR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. WITH UPPER RIDGE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPS AND MORE SKY COVER NORTHWEST OF ILLINOIS RIVER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTH FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD WHERE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND PREVAILING WESTERLIES STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
237 PM SAT JUNE 13 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. BROUGHT TO US BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WILL THIN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CLAMPS DOWN ON THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER.
450 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAKER CHETCO EFFECT IS OCCURRING NEAR BROOKINGS TODAY AND EXPECT THE HIGH TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY, BUT EXPECT SOME CONTINUED STRONG WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS TO CONTINUE.
Instability will also be good with a band of ML CAPE values over 2000 j/kg along the NM/TX border southward towards the Lower Trans Pecos. Expect the wet pattern to continue over the next few days with the weak upper level trough continuing its slow progression east.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT HAS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A DRY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
259 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 CURRENTLY - A TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN AND AN ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IS KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH. FORECAST - THE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE KEYS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS AS THE "TROUGHINESS" GIVES WAY TO INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SLACKENING SURFACE FLOW. SKY COVER WILL ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AMOUNT OF NEARBY CONVECTION DECREASES AND THE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN PULLS FURTHER AWAY. AND NEARBY MID LEVEL RIDGING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA. AND THE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
128 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HYDRO A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN CREEPING FARTHER NORTH ALL DAY AND IS CLOSE TO THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
Farther west, additional storms are developing, favoring the higher terrain west of Ft. MLCAPE values are on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, but effective bulk shear values are on the low side (<25 kts), suggesting generally disorganized convection this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will largely be in the lower 70s, but a few areas could dip into the upper 60s in and around thunderstorms. (Sunday night through next Saturday) This afternoon, an upper-level trough was located west of the region.
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON SUN AND MON. THERMAL TROUGH SITS ON S OREGON COAST ON SUN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERMAL TROUGH INFLUENCE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH FOR NORTHWEST OREGON. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER. FAVORING A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER MARINE AIR ACROSS THE COAST RANGE. ESP THROUGH THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE.
151 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
403 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER WRN NM/ERN AZ. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN INDICATING SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASING DURING THE MRNG ON SUN AS THE AZ/NM TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY ACRS KS-MO THIS AFTN/ LIFTS NWD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEB. ALSO ON SUNDAY THE PAC NW SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO ERN SD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
At the surface, a very weak and ill-defined warm front was gradually lifting northward across the forecast area and should lift into Nebraska tonight. However, due to the low confidence in the timing and location of any more organized, widespread precipitation, we have continued to hold off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch. As for temperatures, persistent overcast skies will keep similar conditions in place through Sunday with lows tonight into the mid/upper 60s and highs on Sunday reaching into the low 80s as cloud cover may scatter out a bit during the late morning/early afternoon hours.
1120 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Winds will subside a bit this weekend as cooler, more seasonal weather returns to the Inland Northwest.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH STABLE/COOLER AIR BUILDING IN.
1105 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TODAY WILL START OFF WITH A FILLING UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U. ABOUT NOON A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TRAVELING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SW CO. ALONG WITH INCREASING UPLIFT AS THE REMNANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE A WARMER TEMPS. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SENDS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTING THE HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING IS ALREADY ON ITS WAY OUT. AND WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY /KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE A TROUGH WAS WORKING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE DEGREES TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS TRAVERSING THE AREA.
702 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
957 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
555 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 The upper low that has been sitting over Mexico and creating massive flood issues along the southern states will finally begin to eject northward into Texas by Saturday. with the first lifting north through the CWA during the morning hours and the second round holding off until Saturday afternoon as the trough swings northeastward into Arkansas.
842 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER UNTIL RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TNGT AND SAT FM THE S AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY ADVANCE N ACRS THE TN AND LWR OH VLY RGNS.
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS QUITE VISIBLE ON RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE. THERE IS STILL A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
717 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A QUIET AND DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK OVER OTHER AREAS. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. RIDGE AXIS WORKS EASTERLY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
729 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THEN WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
558 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP A DESCENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE KEYS.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. /ISSUED 421 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ RAINS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND GETS CAUGHT IN THE STREAM THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY OUT OF THE REGION TOWARDS SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN. TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY. H850 MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH.