Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
236 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper high near the Four-Corners region. This upper high is expected to edge east some today, resulting in increased heights over our area. It will remain quite warm overnight, with lows in the low to mid-70s for areas on the Caprock and lows nearing 80F for areas off the Caprock.
Weak area of high pressure will continue to reside across the Gulf of Mexico today, which will allow for winds to slacken and return back to a more southerly direction. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge axis is slowly moving northward from near Cuba and the Straits of Florida.
A strong ridge of high pressure over Arizona will bring hot temperatures through the weekend. The hottest temperatures this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations. Dry conditions are expected for much of the area, though high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible over the high terrain today. High pressure remains over the desert southwest and will continue to bring near-record heat through the weekend.
610 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the area today then slide east of the region on Sunday.
807 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Combination of a weak U/L trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwest boundary layer flow off the warm waters of the Gulf, deep tropical moisture over the forecast area, and diurnal heating will trigger numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms today across west central and southwest Florida. Given the high PW's and relatively slow storm movement, heavy rain associated with thunderstorm activity may produce localized flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. With the U/L trough just west of the area aiding in large scale lift, redevelopment of showers/storms over the coastal counties is also possible late this afternoon.
Our airmass will continue to moderate today and Sunday as the upper ridge currently centered over NM is expected to elongate and expand across the S US by Sunday allowing for the heat to build across AL. We will get little relief on Sunday as only isolated afternoon pop up storms are anticipated in weak impulses around the ridge, mainly in the W and S.
Otherwise, fairly zonal flow on the backside of an upper ridge pattern looks to bring fairly warm and dry weather conditions for the first portion of the day, however, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. On Sunday, an upper trough deepens over the western U.
629 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (Today through Sunday) The strong upper level ridge will strengthen in the short term and center right over Texas. Near-surface humidity will remain low through Sunday, which will help keep the Heat Index from reaching even higher values, as well as allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 70s at most locations.
1008 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A weak trough of low pressure will impact the region today bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms primarily to the eastern half of the forecast area. High pressure and strong upper-level ridging then builds in from the west Sunday into mid week with hot temperatures expected.
The upper trough over the OH Valley will continue lifting east.
/issued 236 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022/ Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper high near the Four-Corners region. This upper high is expected to edge east some today, resulting in increased heights over our area. It will remain quite warm overnight, with lows in the low to mid-70s for areas on the Caprock and lows nearing 80F for areas off the Caprock. The upper ridge just to our west this morning will rapidly move east on Sunday. The ridge will move far enough east so that a mid-level moisture plume will bend into the area from the west. A surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico during the afternoon with very hot temperatures may be enough to initiate isolated convection late in the afternoon along this surface boundary.
Showers, isolated thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures are expected in northern Nevada Sunday while central Nevada remains dry and warm.
Upper ridge axis will shift over the central states Sunday, as a trough pushes into the Pacific NW. Sunday is now looking slightly cooler than today, following tonight's cool front.
/issued 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022/ Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows ridging oriented over NM/AZ and N Mexico, with a trough over the eastern Great Lakes extending southward toward the FL Panhandle.
643 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A weak trough of low pressure will impact the region today bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms primarily to the eastern half of the forecast area. High pressure and strong upper-level ridging then builds in from the west Sunday into mid week with hot temperatures expected.
252 AM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022 High pressure aloft will continue the hot weather for inland areas this weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas relatively cool along with extensive cloudiness.
A large area of showers was moving through MN, in association with low pressure moving through the Dakotas. Temperatures ranged from the middle to upper 40s north to the lower 60s south. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 70s, expect 60s near Lake Michigan.
High pressure to the south will keep conditions mostly dry as well. Precipitation ends by sunrise Sunday morning with upper level ridging continuing across the region. This ridging will allow for significant warm air advection into the region for Saturday and even more so on Sunday. A stronger upper level trough will push through the Panhandle and into north central Nebraska on Sunday night bringing the next best chance for thunderstorms and possible severe weather. Despite a trough and potentially precipitation chances, these will not bring a break from the hot temperatures.
926 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the area today then slide east of the region on Sunday.
Breezy west winds this evening will bring cooler temperatures overnight ahead of the next cold front that will pass through Northern California on Sunday bringing temperatures back into the 70s with a slight chance of some North Bay showers.
430 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Today and tonight: Northwest flow aloft will gradually give way to rising heights as upper ridging begins to slide east from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
621 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (Today and tonight) Pattern transition continues today as northwest flow is replaced by building heights and upper ridging. Expect highs in the low to mid 100s out west with mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
Today Through Sunday Night The main feature in the near term will be a ridge of high pressure building over the region from the southwest. Before the ridge gets here, there will be a couple of weak impulses to deal with courtesy of a northwest flow aloft.
/issued 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The center of broad 500 mb high pressure will gradually migrate from the Desert Southwest to the Lone Star State during the period while remaining the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA.
/TW/ Today and tonight: Northwest flow aloft will gradually give way to rising heights as upper ridging begins to slide east from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Sunday will see the start of the more significant warm-up as upper ridging continues to build into the area.
The low-level thermal ridge will strengthen and slide a bit further east today. 850-700 mb temperatures are forecast to warm between 2-3 C as the mid-level ridge continues to build. Temperatures Sunday are expected to be much the same with perhaps temperatures nudging a degree warmer in spots. In terms of any rainfall, this is confined to the higher terrain where an isolated thunderstorm may be possible during the late afternoon both days.
A few isolated showers will be possible late this afternoon near the highest elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains but overall chances are low. Warmer temperatures by a few degrees today. Warmer again tonight as dew points rise several degrees. However some lingering moisture should be enough with daytime heating to trigger some showers and a possible thunderstorms across the northeast Tennessee mountains, southwest Virginia and the higher elevations of the Smokies.
1048 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Mean layer ridging persists across the western North Atlantic and the southwestern United States. Between these two anticyclones, depressed heights reach to the south into the Yucatan from the more dominant long wave trough over the eastern US. Like yesterday, cumulus congestus should form in the lee of the Lower Keys early this afternoon. A weak ridge axis will linger across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys today, resulting in light breezes.
(Rest of Today) Temperatures under mostly clear skies have climbed into the lower to mid 70s in most locations.
1220 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the area today then slide east of the region on Sunday.
A few isolated showers will be possible late this afternoon near the highest elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains but overall chances are low. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 91 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 89 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 72 94 72 / 10 10 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 87 67 90 70 / 10 10 20 30 10.
Warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s or near 90 in the Tennessee Valley. Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U. A ridge will build into the Southeast tomorrow afternoon and evening. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient is over the Southeast with high pressure centered well out in the Atlantic and a weak low near the Great Lakes with a cold front well to the north of the region. Showers will likely be confined to SW Virginia, NE Tennessee and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. With dew points in the 60s and a ridge building into the region coverage will be limited. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 80s and near 90 in the Tennessee Valley.
594DM upper high is parked over the Desert SW & increasing heights & warmth are progged to build E through the day. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Northwest flow aloft will gradually give way to rising heights as upper ridging begins to slide east from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
With some uncertainty on how far east we will mix out the higher dewpoints tomorrow, we will leave the advisory as is. A low amplitude s/wv trough will be moving across Kansas and northern Oklahoma today into tonight.
353 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight then slide east of the region on Sunday.
The combination of warmer temperatures further southwest, coupled with previous heavy rain, could also push heat index values to around or over 110 for much of southeast Oklahoma.
139 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Combination of an U/L trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, deep tropical moisture over the forecast area, and moist low level southwest flow off the Gulf has pushed the west coast sea breeze boundary over the interior with an associated large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Atmosphere over the coastal counties will have the opportunity to destabilize once again later this afternoon and combined with the large scale lift provided by the U/L trough to the west, there's a good possibility scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across west central and southwest Florida with locally heavy rain. Sunday will be a transition day as an U/L ridge begins to build over the Florida peninsula increasing large scale subsidence over the forecast area.
As expected, showers formed in the lee of the Lower Keys, but their vigor and lifespan appears to be muted. Low level ridging initially across South Florida and the Keys will lift northward and strengthen over the next several days. Meanwhile, the weakness in between the mean layer anticyclones (one over the western North Atlantic and the other over the southwestern US) will fill, resulting in an anticyclone centered over the Southeast US.
It will be another mild night with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Any lingering convection will come to an end by Sunday morning, leading to a warmer and more humid day as an upper level ridge continues to build over the region and a southeasterly low level flow brings an increase in near surface moisture.
Otherwise a sprawling ridge of high pressure will be building over the area with generally light south to southwest winds. Today Through Sunday Night The main feature in the near term will be a ridge of high pressure building over the region from the southwest. Before the ridge gets here, there will be a couple of weak impulses to deal with courtesy of a northwest flow aloft.
While temps are a bit warmer out today, dew point temps remain in the 50s to low 60s, making temps pretty bearable.
Not seeing a lot of changes with the overall pattern as the strong mid and up- per ridge remains in place over the Southern Plains. But tonight, with the addition of the high clouds from the NE, radiational cooling may be somewhat hampered, and this could keep overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer than previous nights.
High pressure over Arizona will bring hot temperatures through the weekend. The hottest temperatures this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations. Dry conditions are expected for much of the area, though high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible over the high terrain today. A bit drier air moved over northern Arizona overnight in response to a dry trough moving in from the west.
233 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 The high heat remains large and in charge this weekend as an upper high shifts directly over the region by tomorrow, before departing quickly thereafter. This process will bring a layer of mid-level moisture around the ridge and into the NW South Plains and SW Panhandle through the afternoon, yet high temps should be largely unchanged from today.
An upper low in the northeast Pacific continues to guide an Atmospheric River (AR) into the PacNW this morning. 75 inches across the lower elevations while areas in the foothills and in the eastern mountains have seen 0.
1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (Today and tonight) Pattern transition continues today as northwest flow is replaced by building heights and upper ridging. Expect highs in the low to mid 100s out west with mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (Today through Sunday) The strong upper level ridge will strengthen in the short term and center right over Texas. Near-surface humidity will remain low through Sunday, which will help keep the Heat Index from reaching even higher values, as well as allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 70s at most locations.
Just down Highway 83, Garden City was a good 10 degrees "cooler" at 97 with a 63 dewpoint. We will be keeping the forecast for tonight dry, although we will need to watch the higher terrain areas out west of our forecast area in case thunderstorm activity grows into a small cluster and approaches our western counties.
Temps this afternoon have quickly climbed into the low 90s while dewpoints have peaked into the low 70s. The passing upper ridge across the central CONUS gives way to an southwest flow pattern and thunderstorm complex developing off the high plains Sunday.
123 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A weak trough of low pressure will impact the region today bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms primarily to the eastern half of the forecast area. High pressure and strong upper-level ridging then builds in from the west Sunday into mid week with hot temperatures expected.
(Tonight) Temperatures have already climbed into the lower 80s primarily except in the Quad-cities area which has reached 87 degrees already this afternoon. With higher dewpoints being advected into the area, expect lows to be warmer, only dropping into the mid to upper 60s in most locations, despite clear skies and light winds.
Overnight low temperatures wl fall into the low to mid 70s. High pressure wl begin to develop WWD from the Bahamas and W Atlc basin with the sfc axis initially across S FL. Mid level temps wl warm in response to influence of building ridge, which will help to limit storm strength, but with PWAT 1. Afternoon highs in the lower to Mid 90s with heat indices around 100.
Cold front extending southwest from this low to secondary weak low pressure across southwest Minnesota. Northern Michigan continues to reside in a broad upper level trough regime with the eastern periphery of the corresponding ridge beginning to enter the Great Lakes region.
The Lower Mississippi Valley remains entrenched in northwest flow aloft. As it does, an upper ridge will build into region from the west. Sunday will mark the start of an early season heat wave across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Simultaneously, a 591dam ridge will build in.
The highest concentration of precipitation at this time is over Wisconsin and these showers will move through the area this evening into the overnight.
After a night in the middle to upper 70s tonight, the upper ridge is expected to center over Texas tomorrow. Lows tomorrow night should be back in the lower to upper 70s across the area.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Not much to write home about in the short term, as WV imagery shows a H594 ridge centered over far west Texas. Enough of the higher elevations will be warm enough for an Excessive Heat Warning, making Sunday the warmest day this forecast.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.
High pressure behind the back door front will sit over the Great Lakes on Sunday, with persistent easterly winds keeping it cooler near the lake. Quiet conditions will continue through Sunday night, with persistent cooler temps northeast and milder southwest.
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 (Rest of Today) Temperatures under mostly clear skies have climbed into the lower to mid 70s in most locations.
151 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Upper level analysis depicts a broad upper ridge over the western half of the US. As mixing continues through the afternoon, dewpoints will hover in the low to mid 50s across the area. Despite the meager thermodynamic environment, strong westerly winds along with northern periphery of the western ridge will result in effective bulk shear magnitudes 55-70 knots this afternoon and evening. A quick moving trough will move onshore near the OR/CA coast early Sunday morning. As this trough matures and digs across the southwestern US, upper level flow will shift out of the southwest.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Take Home Points: *Strong/severe storms possible SW through the evening *Additional storm chances Sunday overnight, north *First HOT/HUMID conditions early work week Discussion: The region remains underneath semi-active NW flow with broad Northern Rockies ridging and Great Lakes troughing. Factors favoring supercells include a high degree of hodograph streamwiseness in the low levels for storms following both mean wind and right mover motions, effective bulk shear 40 to 50+ kts, and aforementioned MLCAPE values. Another limiting factor is relatively weak forecast flow profiles and SRH values in the lowest 1km. Our stretch of relatively cool/seasonable weather will come to an end rather abruptly with Norther Rockies ridging moves into the Plains and brings with it robust 850mb/mid-level temperatures in the mid to upper 20s deg C.
102 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A broad upper ridge is centered over the southwest of the United Sates today. Trough/cold front will sag southeast and will be in our eastern southern CWA by mid to late afternoon. The ridge will be centered over the central and southern United States plains and will provide another shot at some potentially severe thunderstorms for Sunday night with increased low- level moisture return forecast. MUCAPEs should be substantial enough to support some large hail and perhaps damaging wind gusts, especially in the western CWA where the 850 mb theta-e ridge is forecast to be.
An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across much of Texas, including West Central Texas on Sunday.
The upper level ridge will continue to build across the region through Sunday night. With ridging aloft, subsidence will promote clear skies this afternoon and Sunday with only a few clouds around tonight.
Low amplitude ridge building into the area today is bringing some of the warmest temperatures of the season so far to eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The short-term focus is on severe weather potential later this afternoon and evening on the periphery of the upper ridge.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Upper-level ridge to be the predominant feature driving the weather pattern across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period. With the ridge becoming centered over the region by Sunday afternoon, subsidence will drive afternoon high temperatures to near 100 degrees areawide. With dew point values in the low to mid 70s, heat index values will soar to near 110 degrees.
Mid-level ridge builds with time which should limit southward extent of weakening showers and storms. Heat ridge builds across the region during the day with afternoon highs climbing well into the 90s. Added Heat Advisory for remainder of northwest Arkansas at the same time as winds turn more southwest and advect higher moisture into the Ozarks along with warmer H8 temps.
Our forecast area generally remains situated on the southern fringe of an upper level trough that is moving across the Ohio Valley and adjacent Mid-Atlantic states early this afternoon and also to the east of an upper level ridge of high pressure that spans across the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies/ southern Plains. A weak surface frontal boundary/trough of low pressure extends across southern portions of southeast MS and eastward across far southwest AL and the adjacent western FL panhandle/south central AL border early this afternoon. So far radar has not shown any convective development across our forecast area, but we still anticipate the formation of isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms along the surface boundary/trough axis this afternoon, with development currently looking most favored in the vicinity of the interior western FL panhandle and adjacent portions of south central AL.
240 PM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Showers will dissipate late this evening over the basin with showers remaining over the higher terrain overnight.
A brief cold front will pass through Northern California on Sunday morning bringing temperatures back into the 70s with a slight chance of some North Bay showers.
938 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 An upper level trough will move across the area through the weekend.
VFR conditions beneith a strong dome of high pressure can be expected tonight and Sunday. Winds will relax after midnight and will become gusty from the southeast after 14z Sunday as low pressure deepens in the Lee of the Rockies. The upper level ridge will continue to build across the region through Sunday night. With ridging aloft, subsidence will promote clear skies this afternoon and Sunday with only a few clouds around tonight.
305 PM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Today is the last day of the excessive heat warning, as tomorrow will be much cooler with shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures today have cooled some since yesterday with most locations across the valley coming in about 2 to 6 degrees cooler. Temperatures will also be much cooler tomorrow thanks to this low pressure system bringing shower chances to the region. High temperatures could be about 15 degrees cooler compared to today across northern California.