Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1002 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHED FREEZING IN A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ROSE TO ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME WITH SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE FALLING OVER MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERVIEW: OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SW CANADA DIPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE SOME DRYING/EROSION OF THE STRATUS FROM THE W/S. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE MOIST UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
422 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 (Today and tonight) A strong upper-level cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to move east today, with strong westerlies along its southern flank, extending south and east from the Pacific Northwest across the Central Rockies. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s by sunrise Wednesday, although some low-lying areas and river valleys may briefly hit the freezing (melting) mark.
ACTIVE JET WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT BEHIND COLD FRONT STILL ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN SPOTS FOR A FEW HOURS.
PROTON UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. TONIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH DOWN ON THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. SCOURING OUT ANY FOG AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS.
Temperatures along the I-10 corridor are in the lower to upper 30s and will fall a few more degrees through late evening. Could see a few slick spots develop on bridges and overpasses but this should be rather isolated. /issued 532 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ Light rain along with MVFR CIGS and visibilities will affect areas south of the the I-20 corridor this evening, with most terminals rising back to VFR around midnight as the upper trough and light rain ends. The main band of snow was back to the west across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, where temperatures were in the lower to mid 30s.
A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS UPPER-LEVEL CROSSES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO WARM INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT A SHARP COOL DOWN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH WITH A SECOND LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING UP IN ALBERTA.
Model guidance indicates coldest temperatures from around 20 degrees or colder from around Hays west to Syracuse, and a few degrees warmer toward the Oklahoma line.
335 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016 PORTION OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) High pressure is building across the Great Plains this afternoon. Northwest flow through the low levels will continue to advect stratus from the Upper Midwest down through the Mississippi valley overnight. Expect temperatures tonight to be 5-10 degrees cooler than last night due to the cold advection and cooler start to the night. However, with southwest flow taking hold on the western side of the ridge on Wednesday as well as diminishing cloud cover, we should see a nice rebound into the low to mid 40s across the western 1/2 of the CWFA.
359 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THIS MORNING. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 518 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SWD. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT ALL PRESENT CHALLENGES IN DETERMINING THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SO WILL SEE HIGHS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
1148 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. SHEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TONIGHT/S UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. THE GFS MOS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGH ELEVATION MORENO VALLEY NEAR KAXX WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
THE DEPTH IS RATHER WEAK AND NO REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN SEEN THIS MORNING SO FAR. STILL HAVE HAVE AN SPS OUT UNTIL 5Z THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HEADING INTO THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL LIKELY SEE A 5 TO 7 DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BUT SIGNIFICANT WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL ALOFT. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER SPREADING INTO THE REGION. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS IT COULD HAVE GREATER IMPACTS.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED LEVEL WOULD NOT HAVE ICE IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SO IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER AND LACK OF LIFT DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND THE HWO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
320 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS PROVIDING NORTH WINDS AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MUCH MILDER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO INCREASE THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
304 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016 Longwave trough continues to push southeast out the area, clearing Kansas in the overnight hours. Weak surface pressure falls behind the departing weak surface anticyclone bringing light south to southwest winds to many local sites overnight. The warmer airmass and more mixing tonight should keep lows in the mid to upper 20s as the clouds thin.
123 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE DOMINATE AND LAST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AND THUS. EDGED MAX TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WARMER GUIDANCE.
A STRONG 500HPA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND 850HPA WAA IS ALSO EVIDENT.
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
High pressure will remain over the region the couple of days.
226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE EAST IN THE SHIELD IS RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECASTED AND THINK THAT WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE HITTING THE LOWS WHICH IS GOING HAND IN HAND WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE TWEAKED A FEW OF THE LOWS UP A FEW IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO LEAVE.
NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THE UPR OH REGION. AND OVR THE RIDGE ZONES AS COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES IS OFFSET BY SHEARED BOUNDARY LYR FLOW. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CEASE BY EVE AS SHRTWV RIDGE BLDS IN ADVN OF ANOTHER TROF. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR THURSDAY PASSAGE OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.
1006 PM PST TUE JAN 26 2016 A weak weather system tracking into the area into Wednesday will bring areas of light valley rain and mountain snow, and possibly some isolated spot of freezing rain. A wetter and warmer storm will track through the area on Thursday and will bring rain and high mountain snow.
1245 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 30S. SECONDARY VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN LARGER SCALE/POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAXIMIZE BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. DEPARTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW WELL INTO QUEBEC. BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS HANGING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. JUST AS THE HIGH IS ABOUT TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
400 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEAN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES IN THE NRN WARREN CO SNOWBELT /NORTH OF RT6/ TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ALONG THE SW RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MIDNGT UPDATE WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE UPR OH REGION AND GENERATING SCT SNOW SHWRS AS IT DROPS TEMPS BACK TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS. AND OVR THE RIDGE ZONES AS COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES IS OFFSET BY SHEARED BOUNDARY LYR FLOW. ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHRTWV WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR THURSDAY PASSAGE OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. SHEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TONIGHT/S UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. THE GFS MOS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY. WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
EARLIER CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED. THERE IS SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS DADE AND WALKER COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. NLISTEMAA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTH FL BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS OVER GA ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND A NW WIND 10-15 KTS.
245 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016 A POSITIVE-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
333 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016 (Today and Tonight) Skies were clear early this morning over all except the southwestern part of our area (southwest of a Barnhart to Sonora line), where patchy low clouds and freezing fog were observed. Given the light rain and snow which occurred across that area late yesterday afternoon and evening, along with temperatures slightly below freezing early this morning, may have some slick spots on roads, especially bridges and overpasses. The low clouds and fog will dissipate around mid-morning, with mostly sunny skies expected through the day today. Temperatures will be cool again today, but with sunshine highs will be 8-12 degrees warmer than yesterday. Farther north across the Big Country, lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s as southwest winds will develop and limit the temperature drop.
930 PM MST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL FILTER IN WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
At the surface, light westerly downslope winds of 5 to 12 mph will be common in a weak trough. If clouds are thicker than forecast, the highs may be a few degrees cooler than expected. NAM model guidance looks too cool however and will hedge toward warmer MAV guidance. A strong upper ridge developing across the western states will help maintain dry westerly downslope flow across the central High Plains.
426 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST AND MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE COLLAPSING WITH A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP AND DOWN ITS EAST SIDE DURING THE DAY BRINGING WITH IT A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE PASSING WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. HENCE TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER BY 5-9 DEG F.
206 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS DRIER, COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
1238 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL CAUSE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH AND THE FRONT WILL CONVERGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER JET MOVES OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND AND SOUTH.
1224 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
1215 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY.
It will probably take until the H5 trof passes this pm. to really allow the low level moisture to depart.
348 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z INDICATES ANA-TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS DUE TO IN-SITU WEDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SE GA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO QUICKLY PROGRESS W TO E ACROSS THE SE CONUS. SFC COLD FRONT OVER WRN ATLC THROUGH SRN PARTS OF FL AND ASSOCD MOISTURE MOVE QUICKLY EWD WITH SOME OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SE ZONES IN THE EVENING. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S N TO MID 40S S ON LIGHT NWLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE FOG ERODES AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT EAST LOOKING AT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. BUT FOR NOW THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD OVERWHELM THIS THREAT. THEREFORE BLENDED IN A LOT OF MILD ECMWF MOS VALUES WHICH I BELIEVE CAPTURE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MUCH BETTER THEN CONSENSUS OR BIAS CORRECTED VALUES.
357 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES PER EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SRN MANITOBA CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THIS EVENING. THE 850-700 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO OVERCOME WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD CENTRAL WI. THE BRISK SWLY FLOW WILL PUMP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S BY LATE TODAY AND KEEP THEM THERE TNT.
THINKING THEY WILL COMPLETELY MAKE IT TO KMSL BUT KHSV MAY BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND ONLY SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS TEMPORARILY THROUGH THE MORNING.
The large scale ascent associated with the storm and moisture wrapping back into the low level cold sector will produce a large deformation zone covering much of West Texas and western Oklahoma, and advancing into parts of our area. Most of the heavy snow will be due to the deformation zone setting up on the back side of the upper level low. Travel may become hazardous Sunday afternoon and night due to slick roads, especially bridges and overpasses.
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BROUGHT US CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WX THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEE SIDE SFC TROF ALLOWED FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. AS WILL TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 30S. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL FALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS SPLITTING UPPER TROF OFF THE PAC COAST TODAY DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.
433 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP MOISTENING ON THE NORTHWEST/WEST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW (WESTERN EXTENT OF TROWAL) LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD PERSIST AND GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
436 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 THE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURED A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS.
NORTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BRIEFLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS TROUGH MOVES IN MONDAY, IT OPENS THE DOOR FOR COOLER AIR TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE CANADA DROPPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BY MIDWEEK. AT HIGHER LEVELS, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY WHILE, TO THE WEST, A LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROF WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH WITH SNOW AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
409 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 ALL QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS IS POISED TO IMPACT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THE SYSTEM PULLS MORE NORTH AND THAT WILL SLOW THE EAST PROGRESSION AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PICK UP SOME TREMENDOUS RAINFALL. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND IT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 61 72 53 / 20 40 80 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 57 70 52 / 10 20 70 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 75 58 71 52 / 10 30 80 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 53 68 50 / 10 30 60 90 TN.
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER INTRUSION OF COLD FRONT INTO FAR WRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
THE MAJORITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING THEN ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THEN DIMINISH DURING MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES RATHER QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
512 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 409 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/ STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN TX WHILE A CDFNT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU SE MO AND INTO CENTRAL TX. TONIGHT WILL BE WHERE BIG CHANGES IN THE WX WILL BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY STARTS TO MOVE NE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE IT WILL DRAG A QUICK MOVING CDFNT ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TOWARD 15 KTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS 15-20 KTS ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. OTHERWISE STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING AS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS TEMPS DO VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH MODELS KEEPING A WARM LAYER OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPES ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WHERE FREEZING RAIN REMAINS THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE. AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME THE UPPER LOW DOES BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.
SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH IMPROVED VALLEY MIXING ON MONDAY.
KEY WEST RADAR IS PICKING UP A LINE OF LOW TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS ALONG THE CUBAN LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.