Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest HRRR and RAP guidance depicted increased rain rates lifting into the I-40 corridor from southern AR overnight, focused along and north of a slow moving cold front and aided by a strengthening low level jet. A northern stream trough is moving east across the northern tier states with a downstream ridge building up the East Coast. A southern stream trough continues to spin over the Four Corners area this afternoon with a cold front is located to our north, extending across southeast MO into northeast TX. The warm conveyor belt downstream of the Four Corners trough will shift eastward over the Mid-South tomorrow with precipitable water increasing to around 1. 75" along and ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
medium An upper trough digs across the northern plains tonight, with an upper jet across far southeast Wisconsin.
The overall weather pattern has a weakening upper ridge over the region with a frontal boundary approaching from the west. leaving the upper ridge to dominate.
The early morning water vapor analysis showed a southern stream H300 longwave trough/cutoff low meandering over the Desert SW while a northern stream trough was digging southeastward over Montana. Trended lows slightly higher given how the blended solution incorporates multiple cooler, but drier, solutions that may artificially boost the chances of snow mixed with the rain tonight. Although temperatures in this layer will cool and approach freezing especially just above the surface. The SREF members are showing surface temperatures above freezing, but possibly reaching the lower 30s. While the GEFS members are slightly warmer with surface temperatures.
238 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Steady stream of rain continues along and south of I-70 early this morning, as an area of low pressure rides along the front over the Ohio Valley. However, as the upper trough over New Mexico begins to swing east, another surge of moisture will be advancing northeast. At the same time, the wave over the Dakotas will push a cold front into central Illinois by late evening. Overall upper pattern will feature broad troughing over the central U.
630 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will remain offshore today. A weak cold front will approach today and then stall across our area tonight. This stalled boundary will push north as a warm front on Thursday.
Active weather is expected to increase across South Texas through the period ahead and along an approaching cold front. As the cold front approaches the region, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase Wednesday afternoon and continue into the overnight hours.
328 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Patchy light freezing rain will remain possible through dawn this morning. Lingering rain will end later this morning as brief high pressure builds over the area.
While southerly flow will bring warm, moist air into the CWA from the Gulf of Mexico, the area will remain dry under the influence of the deep layer ridging.
219 AM MDT Wed Mar 28 2018 The region will remain on the SW periphery of a deep upper trough centered over interior Canada. A stronger western NOAM ridge topping impulse will force a vigorous cold front into the region by the end of the work week, with temperatures expected to be 15-25 degrees below seasonal averages by this coming weekend.
550 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A front with waves of low pressure meanders nearby through Thursday with periods of heavy rain, then pushes through Thursday night.
259 AM PDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A ridge of high pressure will bring relatively light winds and warm afternoon temperatures through the weekend.
352 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will remain offshore today. A weak cold front will approach today and then stall across our area tonight. This stalled boundary will push north as a warm front on Thursday.
418 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 (Today and Tonight) A cold front has moved through most of the area early this morning.
The warmer trend has started as the thermal trough continues to build, and today will be warmer than yesterday for most areas of southern Oregon and northern California. The Chetco Effect will occur again today as guidance is looking to push the high for Brookings into the 70s. This warming trend will also coincide with a drying trend where the mid to upper slopes and ridges will start seeing moderate overnight recoveries as easterly winds help to dry things out. Yesterday, all models indicated that the thermal trough would continue. This disturbance, however, will be enough to break up the thermal trough and bring temperatures back down a few degrees.
155 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A cold front will slowly move east through the area tonight and Wednesday, bringing a period of prolonged rainfall to much of the region.
/Issued 558 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ An upper level low pressure system over far western New Mexico is forecast to move eastward tonight, then across west Texas on Wednesday. Medium range models disagree on timing of next cold frontal passage this weekend.
A deep upper level trof will swing eastward out of the plains with an associated cold front moving through the forecast area throughout the daytime hours on Thursday.
High pressure ridging just off the southeast U. A cold front oriented parallel to this flow will drift slowly through the region in the next 36 hours. On Thursday, a couple of waves of low pressure riding along the front are expected to get it moving again, promising to shift the rain shield eastward by late Thursday evening. Light rains on radar now are not causing flooding issues, but this first wave on top of wet grounds should set the stage for flooding as those waves of low pressure tonight into Thursday bring their more intense rain rates.
333 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Surface ridging has settled in over the area, and is expected to drop temperatures north of HWY 36 near freezing this morning. The trough over the southwestern U. Tonight, the upper level trough will move overhead, while the weak surface front passes through the forecast area.
Spotty light freezing rain may occur in the Catskills. The rain will end Wednesday morning as brief high pressure builds over the area. Evaporative cooling with the first band of rain has lowered readings into the lower 30s this evening from parts of CNY into the Catskills. However, any occurrences of freezing rain have been very patchy, and with road sensor data showing pavement temperatures well above freezing area-wide, we continue to anticipate little to no impact, even in places that receive a bit of freezing rain. During this period another low pressure system will track along a stalled boundary in the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and lift northeast across the local area and into eastern Canada.
High pressure will build over the region the remainder of the week leading to a rapid warming trend. Afternoon high temperatures near 90 degrees will be common across the lower deserts late in the week.
649 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will shift offshore with SW winds and an upper ridge providing for much warmer temps today and Thursday.
A trough will move into the southern Plains today, as upper level ridging extends from near the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward along the East Coast. Ridging continues to influence sensible weather conditions across Central Alabama, with the area remaining rain free early this morning. The upper level ridge will prevent the frontal system to our west from moving eastward today.
This will occur ahead of a cold front advancing southward across the area. Chances for rain continue through Wednesday night, as an upper trough passes through the Great Plains. As colder air filters in behind the cold front, we could see see snow or a rain/snow mix as precipitation ends Thursday morning. That said, impacts should be minimal with surface temperatures at or above the freezing mark.
The leading edge of cold front associated with the wave is in central SD at this time, and will have moved through the entire forecast area by between 21Z and 00Z this afternoon. Behind the cold front, highs today will be cooler than yesterday throughout our western zones.
310 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will shift offshore with SW winds and an upper ridge providing for much warmer temps today and Thursday.
155 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A warm front will surge through the region early today. A much warmer southerly flow is expected this afternoon through Thursday night.
651 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A cold front moving across the area this morning will stall out and weaken near the Ohio River this afternoon and evening. A series of low pressure systems will track northeast across the Ohio Valley late tonight into Thursday night.
Upper level ridging will bring dry weather and increasingly warm weather through Thursday, when temperatures are expected to peak.
200 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A weak frontal system will move across into Wednesday morning, then wash out, followed by weak high pressure later Wednesday.
Despite the high instability, the 00Z BRO PWAT remains pretty limited deep layer moisture in place over the region with only 1. As the deep 500 mb trough axis digs eastwards into TX later today expect the instability and the PWAT values to increase setting the stage for conv to develop later today and tonight as the stronger 500 mb vorticity moves into the region. Drier and more stable air will then filter into the region as the trough axis and the associated cold front moves through the RGV by early Thurs morning. CAA in the wake of the cold front moving through the area tonight will be pretty limited to nonexistent.
356 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A weak frontal system will move across the area today followed by weak high pressure late today and tonight.
The low clouds and fog will burn off most places by mid to late morning. An exiting upper level low pressure system may return a few showers and thunderstorms to the east central and southeast plains Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a secondary disturbance in northwest flow aloft may produce some showers in the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon, before spreading them across the northeast third of the forecast area Wednesday night as a back door cold front arrives. Quieter and warmer weather will be on tap for the rest of the week.
359 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 The upper cutoff low has become an open trough, and will eject eastward over the region today. The best lift for showers and thunderstorms will be well east of the region today, but there could be isolated showers, if not a storm or two, due to the elevated instability created by the cold pool aloft under the trough.
343 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A warm front will surge through the region early today. A much warmer southerly flow is expected this afternoon through Thursday night.
550 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Steady stream of rain continues along and south of I-70 early this morning, as an area of low pressure rides along the front over the Ohio Valley. However, as the upper trough over New Mexico begins to swing east, another surge of moisture will be advancing northeast. At the same time, the wave over the Dakotas will push a cold front into central Illinois by late evening. Overall upper pattern will feature broad troughing over the central U.
A building ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather and a substantial warming trend through the end of this week.
334 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will shift offshore with SW winds and an upper ridge providing for much warmer temps today and Thursday.
High pressure will be East of the region this period. An area of low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley and a cold front will push into the Southeast. The pressure gradient will tighten due to low pressure to the east and a front approaching from the northwest, with breezy southerly winds expected. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s, even possibly upper 80s across portions of the interior, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 for the beaches.
329 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A front with waves of low pressure meanders nearby through Thursday with periods of heavy rain, then pushes through Thursday night.
130 AM MST Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will build over the region the remainder of the week leading to a rapid warming trend. Afternoon high temperatures near 90 degrees will be common across the lower deserts late in the week.
446 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 LAPS data showed a cold front entering northwest Middle Tennessee early this morning, bringing a band of numerous showers along with it. Believe our cold front will weaken and become stationary near Nashville this evening and serve as a conveyor belt for several low pressure areas that will ride northeastward along the front tonight and Thursday.
The mean ridge position will remain off the coast into Thursday before moving into the Great Basin this weekend.
440 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A cold front moving across the area this morning will stall out and weaken near the Ohio River this afternoon and evening. A series of low pressure systems will track northeast across the Ohio Valley late tonight into Thursday night.
Ridging aloft over the area will make only slow eastward progress through tonight. Upper-level anticyclone gives way to approach of broad longwave trough, which reaches MS River by late in the day. Ridge axis drops to southern peninsula overnight.
347 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A front with waves of low pressure meanders nearby through Thursday with periods of heavy rain, then pushes through Thursday night.
405 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 The wedge continues to erode as the center of the high pressure becomes anchored off the coast of the Carolinas. Not much chance for showers today as we remain under the influence of the ridge aloft.
Aloft: A broad trof will settle over the rgn today and tonight. Its cold front was plunging S thru the Dakotas. Sct gusty shwrs will develop along and behind the cold front. Hazardous Weather Potential: - Some minor snow accum possible Sat night into Sun Aloft: The trof will linger over the Plns Thu then shift E into the GtLakes with svrl days of low-amplitude almost zonal WNW flow. A warm front will form and move thru Fri followed by a stronger cold front Sat. A warm front will form from NW-SE across Neb/KS Mon and remain quasi- stationary. Cold frontal passage around 18Z with sct gusty -SHRAs after 21Z.
138 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over AZ with a trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough moves out this afternoon. Another trough moves into the northern plains on Wed.
Surface wise, an expansive region of high pressure is centered along the Eastern Seaboard with a lengthy ridge reaching well westward across the gulf coast region. This will be in response to the close proximity of a deep layered ridge hovering near our county warning area. However, the low level flow will slacken with a decoupled flow evident by the end of this week.
310 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Slow-moving cold front has become near-stationary this morning, from near Nacogdoches, to Shreveport, to El Dorado. Models indicate another similar situation for this aftn, and this is likely to continue in waves until the upper trof finally forces the cold front e of our region Thursday morning. Threat for severe storms will ramp up this aftn and early this evening for portions of the region, as a mid lvl speed max moves over the moderately unstable and very moist airmass in place s of the stalled cold front. The NAM continues to indicate a few shwrs developing along a secondary impulse rounding the base of the upper trof, but the Euro/GFS solutions seem to be too limited with respect to moisture for any QPF output.
200 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Aviation A cold front will push east of the region this evening taking the rain with it. high level clouds will move in as the lower clouds move out.
452 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure is bringing quiet weather this morning. Clouds will increase from west by aftn and there may be light rain showers into the west ahead of approaching cold front. Since more open water has developed over western Lk Superior in the last couple days, increasing moisture up to H85-H8 and H85 temps of -14c will support at least isolated lake effect, especially in the higher terrain of the west and maybe the north central.
A warming trend with dry conditions will commence today and continue into this weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
The strongest lift associated with the upper-level jet will shift east overnight and we should see a gradually decrease in activity from west to east until lift and instability increase again Wednesday with the approach of the upper trough. /issued 348 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ A potent upper level low currently over Arizona will move eastward and transition our part of the Lone Star State by Wed evening. As the trough axis passes, the flow will become northwesterly and slowly transitions to zonal by the weekend.
Northwest flow ahead of an offshore ridge will persist over WA and OR through the short term period. This will be a dirty ridge with some moisture moving over it into WA and OR at times.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower to mid 50s, with low temperatures tonight from the upper 30s north to mid 40s south. However, approach of upper PV anomaly and sharp low level convergence with low level trough axis should support ramp up in rain coverage late tonight and particularly into Thursday as this trough axis shifts from west to east across the area.
Stacked lower and upper level ridging will keep sensible weather forecast benign. ranging from the lower to middle 50s north of I-4. Those in warmer locations during easterly flow, such as southern Pinellas County and around Charlotte Harbor, can add an additional few degrees due to the warming influence of the wind fetch over water. Strong high pressure building down the eastern seaboard will move offshore into the western Atlantic waters Wednesday.
High moisture levels in place (precipitable water values around 2 inches) combined with increasing lift and shear will support locally heavy rainfall (event totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts approaching 4 to 5 inches - slight to moderate risk of excessive rainfall per WPC's current Day 1 Outlook) and possible strong to severe thunderstorm development (damaging winds/large hail/isolated tornadoes - slight risk per SPC's current Day 1 Outlook) to develop along and ahead of a cold front as it moves eastward across the state and through our area in the next 24 hours. Cooler low temperatures, lower humidities and drier weather closes out the week followed by a gradual warmup over the weekend with a return of onshore winds.
1209 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Surface analysis shows the cold front just northwest of the PAH forecast area, with numerous showers along and behind the front. Any break will be short lived with models bringing another area of low pressure along the front, lifting it back into the PAH forecast area. Generally light northerly winds are expected to reverse direction overnight on the backside of the high. Most models depicted a warm advection pattern developing Sun night, with the cold front just to our south, and a pressure wave or waves along it. The ECMWF instead showed a more expansive high pressure area moving into the PAH forecast area, under more prominent west-northwesterly flow aloft.
Gusty N/NE winds tonight behind a cold front will back to the west by around 18Z, with speeds thereafter around 12kt or less. /issued 159 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ The upper trough moving in from the west has formed a closed low over AZ this morning. This low will slowly move east passing across the region Wednesday with high pressure building in behind it. This low will bring a good chance of rain to the area. Not much of a dryline today as surface moisture pushed up against the higher elevations. A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front is moving faster than models indicated so have leaned toward the cooler guidance tonight.
The mid and upper level ridge will continue to stretch from west to east across the southern U.
/issued 346 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ Changes are ahead as upper ridging breaks down this weekend and allows for better rain chances across the area. Today looks very similar to yesterday with temperatures slightly above normal and the ridge suppressing most convection. Heights begin to lower Saturday as a trough moving across the Plains helps break down the upper ridge.
The front will move into eastern Kentucky Saturday morning, bringing drier and cooler air into the Bluegrass by noon. Showers and storms will continue farther southeast, with numerous storms possible in portions of the higher terrain where local upslope flow will be enhanced. Drier air will filter through the Commonwealth behind the front Saturday evening/night as high pressure filters in. Fog development will again be a good bet as temperatures cool well below afternoon dewpoints with ridges bottoming out in the upper 50s to low 60s and valleys dipping into the mid-upper 50s.
300 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 The morning MCS has left behind somewhat cooler conditions, with insufficient instability (or focusing mechanisms) to generate any thunderstorms so far this afternoon.
215 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Upper ridge centered over TX and stretching up across the Intermountain West today will get flattened out and displaced east as an upper trough moves ashore the West Coast. As the trough passes by the ridge will once again return west. Disturbances rolling around the edge of the ridge will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region. For now highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with higher temps along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.
345 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure ridge, just west of the MN/Dakotas border, will slowly move east tonight and extend across MN by Saturday morning.
Upper level ridge building over the region but with abundant heating and the light winds, the seabreeze will re- main the main source of activity.
/issued 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ Upper level ridge axis expected to amplify today in advance of minor short wave activity migrating through the southern Rockies and plateau. An outflow from last evenings storms was located near Kress to Paducah early this morning, and is expected to edge a little further south - but questionable if it can become a factor for storm development beneath the sharper anticyclone. Upper ridge will flatten and recenter over south-central Texas by late Saturday. A cold front boundary should sag into the southern or central part of the Texas Panhandle, with solutions not indicating any significant frontal push through out area.
401 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Weak and broad area of low pressure continues meander off the coast of NE Florida this afternoon, with a trailing trough stretching back across the peninsula. THIS WEEKEND: The weak area of low pressure will be absorbed into the larger frontal trough across the southeast on Saturday as high pressure rebuilds back across FL in its wake.
Isolated to widely scattered showers continue to cross portions of the CWA this afternoon in response to an advancing upper level trough. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for the SE zones and radar echoes indicate convection initiation upstream of the forecast area in adjacent southern Canada as well as the higher terrain of central Montana. Any activity is expected to clear late tonight with drier weather conditions on Saturday in advance of an approaching upper level ridge.
Drier conditions with warmer temperatures expected through the weekend.
Once this arrives tonight, drawn in by the southward shifting H% ridge, convection will have an exceedingly difficult time breaking through the cap. With the strengthening of the midlevel ridge, compressional heating will be on the upswing starting tomorrow.