Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
NEXT UPPER TROF CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CNTL PLAINS TUE THEN TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SE TX TUE NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY WED. 47 WINDS/SEAS DECREASED TO BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA EARLIER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS/MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ALL OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ITS AS- SOCIATED COLD FRONT.
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE GENERATING RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY-TONIGHT: UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THIS MORNING. TUE: WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING NEXT TROUGH DIGGING IN THE WESTERN US. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS AS A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS LOW PULLS FURTHER E-NE. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
/ISSUED 306 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ IT HAS BEEN A LITTLE QUIETER TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
WE ARE BETWEEN TWO LARGE TROUGHS, TO OUR EAST AND WEST WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD PROVIDING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, ALLOWS FOR MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXPECTED FOG AND STRATUS AROUND. WE THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE TIED TO THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
ONLY A SMALL AXIS OF CAA IS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT THIS MORNING, AND WHILE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT COOLER, THE UPPER JET WILL REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST, WITH PW RECOVERING TO ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS S/W PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUES NIGHT.
THE CLEARING LINE FOLLOWS RIGHT BEHIND IT ALLOWING SUNSHINE ALREADY TODAY! TODAY WILL FEEL COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING TEMPS. THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
/ISSUED 1042 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ Previous update reflected removing pops from northwest Arkansas and adjusting sky condition as the upper low continues to lift further northeast away from the forecast area.
/ISSUED 507 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER E KS THIS MONDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO THE NE US.
356 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 UNUSUALLY RECORD WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
316 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL. BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
A vigorous low pressure system just to the west of the PAH forecast area will continue to move rapidly northeastward toward the Great Lakes today.
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AND EVEN BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
WV Imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low lifting northeast across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is pushing eastward across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a strong low pressure center is lifting slowly northeast across northeastern Iowa while another area of low pressure is drifting southeast across Wyoming. Lingering snowbands are collapsing quickly early this morning, as intense 534 dm cyclone over SE KS begins to accelerate away. Subsidence behind the departing system will clear the sky quickly this morning, allowing temperatures to fall well below freezing. Strong kicker trough over Nevada this morning will race eastward, strengthening as it does, ending up as another intense 534 dm low over SE Colorado around 6 AM Tuesday. Intense cold closed low migrates to near North Platte by late afternoon.
334 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015 Upper ridge building in between the old upper system nearing the Great Lakes and the next deep system developing over the Central Rockies. Have kept Tuesday rather warm given temps in south central Kansas in the low-mid 50s today. Dry cold front moves through the forecast area Tuesday night, as the next upper low moves across Nebraska and to the north northeast dragging the front behind.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. BY MORNING THE STACKED AND INTENSE UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH DEEP SCALE SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE INTENSE CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL LIE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. CLOSED LOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVES FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON TAP ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE AND OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE LARAMIE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE SHADOWED AS WELL BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OFF AND ON SINCE LAST EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY WEB CAMS AND RADAR RETURNS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
The trough axis will trail to the southwest across the southern Plains into northern Mexico.
1205 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAVERSING WESTERN PA THIS EVENING. GRADUAL POP DIMINISHMENT IS PROGGED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
304 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING.
A LARGE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WRN UT LATE THIS MORNING. AN INITIAL AREA OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP HAS FORMED OVER NWRN UT AND LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHICS HAS BEEN GENERATING LARGE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATION WEST SLOPES OF THE WASATCH MTNS AND ALONG EACH RANGE WEST OF SALT LAKE OUT TOWARDS THE SALT FLATS. THE HIGHER MTNS HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING AS MUCH BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE TONIGHT AS NWLY FLOW DEEPENS. THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN TUE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS BUT A TRAILING SHORT WAVE IN NWLY FLOW BRINGS A RENEWED THREAT OF SNOW TO THE FAR NORTH BY LATE WED.
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ALONG WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS IN THE GRIDS AS WELL GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL DEPICTIONS WITH CATEGORICAL FOR MOST AREAS.
111 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAVERSING WESTERN PA THIS EVENING. GRADUAL POP DIMINISHMENT IS PROGGED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT A STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO MISSOURI. NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AN OPEN TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AGAIN. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. WITH PERIODIC REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF MORE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH A WARMER INVERSION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TODAY AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS 700MB LOW MOVES OVER NORTHEASTERN CO AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ENHANCED FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEARER THE LOW MAY RESULT IN AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 8-10 INCHES THERE. AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
1032 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COOLER AIR IS SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
629 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COOLER AIR IS SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME E 12-15 KT ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF AREA WEAKENS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARDAS A CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE OPENING UP. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING DOWN THE STATE MID- LATE WEEK AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER LATE WEEK. RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES PER OCEAN RESCUE, SO THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
651 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COOLER AIR IS SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HUNG UP JUST WEST OF NASHVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
958 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WY TO AZ AND THE SOUTHERN END WAS MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RANGING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER MOST AREAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT FAIRLY NEUTRAL ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH.
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS ALONG WITH ADDING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE BALL PARK AND THE PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL CONFINE FZDZ AT KGAG/KWWR WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. KCSM WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THAT FREEZING LINE. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT SO MUCH OF THE FA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. EXCEPT IN NW PARTS OF THE FA WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG BECOMES HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
558 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 High pressure ridge axis stretching from south of Hudson Bay, back through the Great Lakes and into the Upper Midwest. Although the high is still building, it has lost ground today to the impacts of a broad area of lift in the Missouri River Valley. Lows tonight should remain above freezing with plenty of cloud cover across the region. Initially, forecast soundings across the east still exhibit some very dry air in the low levels, similar to what we saw today which should keep the bulk of the precip over western IL before shifting over the east during the afternoon. As a result, QPF amounts will only range from around a quarter of an inch to nearly four tenths of an inch, with the higher totals across our northwest.
906 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE RETURNS UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION AMONGST THE RIDGES TOWARD MORNING AS THE RAIN FIELD STARTS TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAIN. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEK AS A PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST AND GETS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK.
630 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING CONTINUED DRYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
An increase in low level moisture along with slightly warmer overnight temperatures will result in a better chance for fog development.
923 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
919 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Upper level low remains to our northwest this evening with persistent moist airmass remaining in place. Any additional amounts should be on the light side as we finally wind down this rain event during the day Monday with the departure of upper low. /ISSUED 351 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ The steadier rains are finally moving out of the forecast area, but scattered areas of light rain and drizzle will still occur tonight into at least early Monday until a Pacific cold front moves across the area and scours out the shallow low level cold air.
431 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE VORT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS THE LOWEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HIGHEST. THERE WILL ONLY BE A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORTIVE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST TO LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE ELONGATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE CAN THE WINDS MIX DOWN AND BLOW OUT THE WEAKENED INVERSIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS? THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW THE NORTHWEST WINDS INTRUDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIGHORN BASIN.
BROAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MARINE FOG ALONG AND BEHIND THE STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS C & SW LA INTO THE GULF. HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS ENERGY FROM UPPER TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE ARKLATX REGION.
/issued 337 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) The persistent upper low over the four corners area is starting to finally move off to the northeast.
315 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REGION OVERNIGHT.
912 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING CONTINUED DRYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
618 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
RIP CURRENTS: HAVE LET THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS NE FL EXPIRE THIS EVE.
649 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
STG SRN STREAM TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING PROBLEMS IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF COOLER THIS EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI EXTENDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING ANYWHERE ANY TIME SOON. BUT AS THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES RAIN WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW.
1054 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COOLER AIR IS SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
959 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH END OF LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT CLOUDS AND VIRGA TO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WAS TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW FLURRY.
744 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACH THE REGION.
702 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
550 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW ROUGHLY ALONG A NASHVILLE- DECATUR AL- JACKSON MS LINE, THANKS TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SIMILAR GRADIENT FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER WEST TO WARM PERSISTENCE EAST. DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME MONDAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LIFTING THE FRONT NORTHWARD. POPS WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST, DRAGGING THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
551 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE RETURNS UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION AMONGST THE RIDGES TOWARD MORNING AS THE RAIN FIELD STARTS TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAIN. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE.
511 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COOLER AIR IS SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
/issued 200 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ Area radars show rainfall has finally cleared the lwr Trans Pecos, whereas WV imagery showdrier air intruding into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as the upper trough begins migrating to the upper Midwest. At the sfc, winds have gone light/variable, and temps have climbed abv freezing everywhere.
/ISSUED 351 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ The steadier rains are finally moving out of the forecast area, but scattered areas of light rain and drizzle will still occur tonight into at least early Monday until a Pacific cold front moves across the area and scours out the shallow low level cold air.
403 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE MELTING MAY HAVE OCCURRED ALREADY OR HAVE BEEN CLEARED OFF. PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP OR CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SLICK ROADS.
625 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
631 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE RETURNS UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION AMONGST THE RIDGES TOWARD MORNING AS THE RAIN FIELD STARTS TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAIN. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE.
512 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Wet, dank weather continues as sfc waves of low pressure and upper level disturbances continue to bring periods of light rain/drizzle northeastward. An upper low over the eastern Rockies will shift into the Midwest (IA/MN border) by Tue 12z/6am. This will push a front through our area Mon night finally kicking the low clouds/precip off to the east. Colder air wrapping around the low will keep high temperatures in the 40s with some low 50s along the MO/AR line Tue afternoon. There is decent agreement on another upper level low moving into the central/southern Rockies by Sat.
631 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED THE MAIN CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS OVER UT. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO WY AND CO BY 12Z MONDAY. SINCE SFC TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OR POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING. ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING AND FROZEN MIXED IN AFTER 09Z.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
WENT WITH WARMER TEMPS THERE WHILE THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE REGION WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RANGING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER MOST AREAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT FAIRLY NEUTRAL ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH.
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE MELTING MAY HAVE OCCURRED ALREADY OR HAVE BEEN CLEARED OFF. PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP OR CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SLICK ROADS.
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WHILE UPPER 40S WERE STILL BEING OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET OVER OUR REGION SOUTH OF A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE.
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT AS HI PRES RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN GOMEX/FL PENINSULA SLIDES E UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG ZONAL JET PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 THAT WILL CAP VERTICAL MOTION WELL BLO 10KFT. HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EWD OVERNIGHT.
1024 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 CURRENTLY - A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS. AND THE WEAKEST OVER THE SHALLOW AND COOLER NEARSHORE GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS.
452 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AT 00Z WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THRU TONIGHT.
913 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.