Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We did lower highs slightly for today, mainly for eastern areas w/ continued influence from larger scale troughing. A warming trend will commence for Thu- Fri in response to upper-level ridging.
The flow weakens and is northwesterly Thursday night as an upper ridge moves eastward towards the CWA.
137 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Dry weather under high pressure is expected before low pressure returns periodic rain chances later tonight night thorough the weekend. Building high pressure should result in dry conditions, though a late day increase in clouds is expected again across OH in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Energy digging into the central Plains on Wednesday will develop into a closed low pressure center by Wednesday night.
122 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over ern Ontario which moves to western Quebec by this evening. Overall, the forecast is pretty quiet as the closed low continues to move away and allow drier air into the area which will decrease the cloud cover. The combination of lingering mid- level dry air and another area of low pressure developing across the southern Plains will limit the amount of moisture that the front will have to work with.
Total totals increase to the lower 50s this afternoon over the western half of the forecast area where weak 850 mb waa works into the area in the wake of the ridge and into the colder 500 mb temperatures of -25 C or colder. 50 and surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 30s.
Tomorrow will be another hot today as a ridge over California begins to exit into the Great Basin.
Upper ridge near the coast will continue to amplify as it shifts east. This will provide the area with a significant warming trend, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer today and 6-12 degrees warmer on Thursday. Dry weather with mostly clear skies will accompany the ridge.
Coastal Flood Advisory: South to southeasterly winds will continue strengthening today ahead of the next cold front this evening and early Thursday morning.
322 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017 An upper level trough currently affecting the Texas Panhandle will sweep east today. The cold front currently moving through the region will eventually reach the Bay of Campeche which will halt any meaningful moisture return for a while. Surface winds will remain out of the north locally through Thursday afternoon but a warmup will still begin on Thursday following today's cooler than normal day. This warmup will be aided by strong upper level ridging moving overhead for the rest of the week. Models are still consistent in digging a closed low down into southern California or just off the coast this weekend.
A strong, slow moving low pressure system will bring another round of widespread significant rainfall starting tonight. A vigorous upper low will develop over the Central Plains and then move east toward the Ohio Valley.
145 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will be moving across the area tonight and Wednesday. Expect clouds and plenty of showers tonight before the showers become more confined to the higher terrain on Wednesday. Eventually the trough moves east Wednesday night into Thursday and the only dry spell of weather is expected during this time period. A developing upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern third of the country will then set the stage for a very unsettled pattern with extensive clouds and showers returning Thursday night and persisting right through the weekend.
High pressure will build in Wednesday night and Thursday bringing dry conditions. This has and will keep temperatures warmer than guidance. Tomorrow a slow clearing of skies and showers as high pressure builds in late. Deep cyclonic flow and the proximity of a deep upper trough over Ontario/Quebec resulting in lots of clouds and scattered light showers over the area this afternoon. High pressure will build toward the area later in the day with increasing amounts of sunshine expected during the afternoon. A stacked storm system over MO/IL will pull rain into NY and PA Thursday night after high pressure exits to the east.
This is what's going on; The southern part of a long-wave upper level trough is forecast to continue to amplify as it moves over northern Mexico through midday today before moving into the northeast and over the southern Plains later this afternoon and evening. At lower levels, a strong cold front is forecast to enter the Hill Country this afternoon with strong to severe thunderstorms possibly forming along the boundary as it moves to the southeast. It will become breezy with gusts up to 30 mph in the wake of the cold front for several hours before wind diminishes overnight.
Disturbances located in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream are expected to phase by Thursday, leading to a very deep trough for early May. As this occurs, a southern stream wave will eject eastward today across Louisiana, supporting thunderstorm development near the Gulf coast along a warm front. Behind the pre- frontal convective episode, additional convective development is likely to occur near and along the cold front during the daylight hours on Thursday.
Light south winds expected ahead of a cold front due around 12Z. /issued 122 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ A mainly dry northern stream cold front is poised to move through the forecast area late tonight and Wednesday morning knocking temperatures back to below normal values Wednesday afternoon.
256 AM PDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure aloft will keep the fair and warm weather coming through Thursday.
Zonal flow aloft with high pressure at the surface will dominate through tonight. As the low pressure system deepens, the vertical wind profile will strengthen, and we'll see a low level jet of 40-50 kt winds over the area, 0-1 km shear of 20-30 kts, and 0-6 km shear around 40 kts. With the current timing, the line of storms along the cold front and isolated convection out ahead of it would approach the area early Thursday morning, before we've had enough daytime heating to destabilize. The main threat would be gusty winds, although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out with the high low level wind shear values.
High pressure will continue sliding eastward this evening, allowing a warm front to continue bringing warmer and more moist air across the region. Front will stall out across northern AR tonight, setting up another potential heavy rain scenario for northern AR and southern MO, in advance of a midlevel trof developing over the southern plains. As the trof advances tomorrow a cold front will sweep in from the northwest, principally during the afternoon and evening hours. I am anticipating that a squall line will develop out and ahead of the cold front, although lapse rates and CAPE values are not particularly impressive at the moment.
High pressure will build in at the sfc and aloft tonight, which will help put an end to the showers.
Another hot day expected today across the district as high pressure moves across the state. A modest cooling trend will start on Thursday as an upper level trough approaches the coast.
151 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Low pressure over Quebec will lift out tonight. High pressure from the plains states will briefly build over the region Wednesday.
Elevated developing warm front ahead of the system providing a focus for the wave and feed of moisture into the region today and through tomorrow. Just as the upper low passes to the east. another wave dives into the trough.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will peak during the afternoon hours as the base of the 500hPa trough moves thorugh the area. A few showers could linger in southeast parts of the CWA into the late evening, but should completely come to end by midnight as the upper level low continues to move southeast and drier air is advected into the area.
A strong, slow-moving low pressure system will impact the area during the middle to later portion of the week, with another round of widespread significant rainfall expected. A vigorous upper low will develop over the Central Plains and then move east toward the Ohio Valley.
High pressure will build in this afternoon and tonight bringing dry conditions. Low pressure moving into the Ohio valley will bring rain Thursday night that will continue into the weekend. Upper trof begins to lift out around 18Z today and surface ridging begins to build in. Ridge continues to build as skies clear tonight leading to frost concerns. Southerly flow develops Thursday on the backside of the high and moisture quickly returns. A stacked storm system over MO/IL will pull rain into NY and PA Thursday night after high pressure exits to the east.
A low pressure system will develop tonight over the Deep South, then lift northeastward.
Some of the higher eastern mtn peaks could see some light snow accumulation. Tonight that weather disturbance will move out of the area and an upper level ridge will be moving over the state. Clearing skies tonight will lead to generally cooler temps and the potential in some areas, for lows near freezing.
/issued 346 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017/ Rest of Today and Tonight: A cold front is slowly making its way down the Florida peninsula.
1229 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017 A cold front is surging south toward the terminals, aided by convective outflows in the Texas Panhandle. A cold front will drive through the region overnight with increasing risk of MVFR stratus at KCDS toward daybreak. All the short term models keep things dry through this evening with some differences as a strong cold front pushes across the area. Highs tomorrow will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today as strong north wind keeps cold air advection in place through the day.
409 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 One more quiet day today ahead of the approaching deep upper low digging into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and into the mid- south on Thursday. Strong low-level flow sets up ahead of the upper low Thursday. Will need to monitor the potential in the higher elevations of the north Georgia Mountains for gusts approaching High Wind Warning criteria. the strong closed upper low drops into the OH and TN valley region.
It will be a bit cooler with highs mainly from 55 to 65 with cooler temperatures close to Lake Superior. A cutoff area of low pressure is forecast to settle over the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys while a high amplitude ridge builds across the Plains and Rockies.
126 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Aviation Lingering light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off late this afternoon and early evening as the upper level low pressure system moves further away from our region. High pressure will build in overnight and it will be cool with low temperatures in the middle 30s with some patchy frost. Fair and seasonably cool weather will then continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
The front will begin lifting slowly northward as a warm front after sunrise this morning. Temperatures south of the warm front(locations generally south of I-40) will surge into the lower to mid 80s.
324 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017 A cold front is right on track to move south through the region throughout the morning hours today. As a result of the cold front, we are looking at cooler high temperatures today with highs generally in the upper 70s/low 80s.
A cold front has caused the winds to become northerly at all three TAF sites 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near 35 to 40 knots. /Issued 530 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ An upper level disturbance will combine with a cold front to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the DHT and GUY TAF sites tonight. The low clouds will then slowly lift during the day on Wednesday. North winds will gust to around 30 knots behind the cold front. /Issued 525 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/ For tonight, a cold front will move through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Total rainfall amounts in these areas will average between 1-2 inches, with the highest totals hugging the Clinton- Sedalia area and immediate points south and east. While forecast is currently officially dry, cannot rule out additional scattered showers on Thursday on the backside of the low, but rainfall amounts will generally be light.
High pressure will build in Wednesday night and Thursday bringing dry conditions. This has and will keep temperatures warmer than guidance. Tomorrow a slow clearing of skies and showers as high pressure builds in late. Deep cyclonic flow and the proximity of a deep upper trough over Ontario/Quebec resulting in lots of clouds and scattered light showers over the area this afternoon. High pressure will build toward the area later in the day with increasing amounts of sunshine expected during the afternoon. High pressure with dry air moves east into the area Wednesday night.
443 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Dry weather under high pressure is expected before low pressure returns periodic rain chances later tonight night through the weekend. Building high pressure will result in mainly dry conditions outside a few isolated showers this morning as a weak boundary drops south over the forecast area. Cloud cover will diminish briefly this afternoon but increase again heading into the evening in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Low pressure will deepen over the Midwest as the longwave pattern amplifies and becomes more meridional with rain slowly overspreading the region overnight. Overall model consensus still indicates areas north and west of Pittsburgh will be favored through Thursday in an inverted trough for higher rainfall amounts.
High pressure will bring excellent weather for the next several days.
Highs today will be in the lower 60s. Ridging ensues early tonight with increasing heights pushing into western and central ND.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track and another near record high temperature day is in store with highs in the lower to mid 80s, except the upper 70s along the coast. A large upper level trough currently residing over the western and central CONUS will slowly push eastward today. However, the western edge of deep layer ridging will hold on across our area through this afternoon. The long run of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today, with highs in the lower-mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.
Broad low level ridge across the area with a weak sfc south to north trough across central FL to about 50 nm east of the NE FL coast. A few showers noted east of the trough near the Gulf Stream east of Mayport and a few other showers dot the offshore waters further south. Broad southerly flow level flow will enable temps to warm well above normal again today with the mean layer ridge to our east. Max temps in the lower to mid 80s expected with record warmth. Light winds near the coast but southerly winds offshore due to a weak trough.
Warm moist southerly flow continues across the area as Bermuda like ridge remains centered just off the Carolina/Georgia coast. The ridge is expected to continue to weaken as the main frontal system finally moves into the state Sunday afternoon.
Weak low-level isentropic lift will sustain drizzle/freezing drizzle until around mid-morning, with surface wetbulb freezing line remaining stationary along the Kansas turnpike. This will erode the low clouds from west to east during the afternoon.
545 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Deep trough over the southwestern portions of the country continues the southwesterly flow into the Midwest aloft. and being under the highest qpf through tonight. However, details are missing as the position of the low is still a bit amorphous with an elongated trough associated with this wave. For now, much of the forecast area is in a Marginal Risk, and the southeast in a Slight Risk, with the best chances to see some warmer temperatures.
Ridge tops generally above zero with some wind, especially around the Little Rockies. Upper flow keeps a trof over the western states for most of the week, but with flow out of the Pacific instead of the Arctic into Montana. High pressure will keep surface winds light this morning, although stronger winds above the cold inversion could result in LLWS.
Cooler air continues to work in from the west behind a cold front which crossed the central mountains after midnight.
After that, we should see a gradual increase in coverage through the day, primarily this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to lift northeast into Southeast Oklahoma and spread through the CWA ahead of a cold front forecast to move through this afternoon/evening. Behind the cold front. The warm sector will push into southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, and will give these locations the highest potential for a few severe storms along and just ahead of the pacific cold front.
Small area of dense fog just ahead of the cold front across parts of the central/western PB/Lea Co is expected to dissipate around 9 AM CST. /issued 518 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ 12Z TAF issuance IFR/LIFR conditions will continue at most of the terminals this morning before a cold front pushes moisture east. A deep upper trough will move into the Central Plains today causing strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions across much of the remainder of the area. Considered issuing a Wind Advisory but the timing of the trough is not quite favorable, with 850mb winds strongest at noon and decreasing during the afternoon. The trough will push a Pacific front through but there will be very little cold air advection due to significant airmass modification.
The biggest forecast changes involve the continued slashing of snowfall amounts and the expanding of the freezing drizzle area further to the northwest.
The system will drag a cold front into the region, with widespread showers/thunderstorms ahead of the front. As the system tracks through the southern Plains, a warm front over southern sections of the state will slowly lift to the north.
This system will will intensify as it moves into the base of the trough.
Aloft, troughing remains poised across the Rockies, with deep southwest flow streaming in across the Mississippi Valley, and ridging still hanging in across the western Atlantic. The stationary boundary will lift back to our north as a warm front by late this afternoon, allowing for a lull in convection, especially across our southeast. Some thinning of the clouds is also expected, so have gone a little warmer on the highs, with mid 70s likely. Temperatures elsewhere will range from the mid 60s north of I-64, to the lower 70s south. The relative lull in the convection will last into this evening, before a stronger cold front moves in well after midnight. Highs will still be well above normal, with readings ranging from the low to mid 60s.
Concern will then shift to strong, gusty downslope winds in the post trough environment. Snowfall in the mountains will continue for a few hours Sunday morning as the upper trough over the state begins moving eastward. By afternoon, heights will be rising over the state as an upper ridge begins building in. After a chilly start to the day, warm advection with the developing ridge will bring warmer afternoon temperatures, especially on the plains. Through the first half of the upcoming week, mid-range models all show a flat ridge/westerly flow pattern across Colorado as an upper trough intensifies along the west coast.
Currently, an upper level trough was situated from the northern high plains into the desert southwest. At the surface, broad high pressure was situated from the northern and central plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
as a couple of short wave troughs rotate through. A robust ridge centered north of the Bahamas stretches southwestward. High pressure remains centered near Bermuda while a westward extending ridge drops from the Gulf coastal states down to central FL and the Gulf waters to the west. The upper ridge continues to provide a warm and somewhat stable and dry air mass.
A deep upper trough will move into the Central Plains today causing strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions across much of the remainder of the area. Considered issuing a Wind Advisory but the timing of the trough is not quite favorable, with 850mb winds strongest at noon and decreasing during the afternoon. The trough will push a Pacific front through but there will be very little cold air advection due to significant airmass modification.
Will leave the High Wind Watch in place for now. Our local probability guidance is on the low side, but the statistical model likely is not capturing 55 knot flow just off the surface. Added central Laramie county & the city of Cheyenne to the High Wind Warning. Removed the High Wind Watch from the Saturday night time frame as strong winds appear unlikely at that time.
High pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and moist air into region today.
High pressure builds into the region from the North today, and a mainly dry day is expected. Despite high pressure ridging in, it will still be partly cloudy. Precipitation will push into the area early Sunday morning, after about 06z from the Southwest as a warm front lifts into the Northeast. Increased pressure gradient on Sunday between the low and departing high pressure advects in warmer temperatures and deeper moisture on Southwesterly flow. Rain will continue during the afternoon hours and taper off Sunday night after a cold front pushes east through the forecast area.
Morning central Florida soundings at the Cape and Tampa indicate low level moisture depth is limited to about 8 kft with a substantial dry layer from H7-H5 associated with subsidence from the mid level ridge aloft. High temperatures should reach the lower 80s coast and mid 80s interior. Ridge axis north of the waters will gradually shift southward and across the region into tonight.
tapering off to the low 50s in Northwest Arkansas.
However, forecast soundings do indicate favorable low level directional and speed shear so a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with the highest probability of occurrence being this evening through early Sunday morning.
518 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 12Z TAF issuance IFR/LIFR conditions will continue at most of the terminals this morning before a cold front pushes moisture east. A deep upper trough will move into the Central Plains today causing strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions across much of the remainder of the area. Considered issuing a Wind Advisory but the timing of the trough is not quite favorable, with 850mb winds strongest at noon and decreasing during the afternoon. The trough will push a Pacific front through but there will be very little cold air advection due to significant airmass modification.
336 AM PST Sat Feb 24 2018 Dry and warmer through Sunday with weak offshore flow this morning.
Showers will return later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to previous runs. The cold front will cross Sunday, taking the wet weather with it. A wave will move along a cold front today providing numerous showers over the region. Showers in advance of a cold front will then move in from the west later tonight.
While some fluctuations are expected with TSRA in the vicinity, believe this will be maintained until the cold front comes through this afternoon. This afternoon a Pacific cold front will move into the Hill Country and Rio Grande. The cold front will push through the remainder of the CWA this evening. Cooler Sunday, especially eastern areas which may struggle into the low 60s remaining under the cloud cover most of the day.
The latest timing brings the storm in a little slower, and we now expect temperatures to allow for accumulating snows in some of the lower elevations into the early afternoon. Temps will be a few degrees warmer Sunday than today.
948 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 Another hot February day is expected with more record high temps possible as high pressure continues to control the weather across west central and SW Florida. Upper-ridge will keep things fairly dry and stable aloft but closer to the surface looks to be just enough moisture in place for a few low-topped showers to develop in the afternoon.