Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
556 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 (This evening through Monday) As the upper level low tracks across the northern Big Country this afternoon, a few light showers will continue to be possible across the Big Country. Expect morning lows in the low to mid 20s for most locations, with the coldest readings in low lying areas and river valleys. Plentiful sunshine should allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 50s Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the warm front temperatures are in the 50s, while behind the warm front temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The southern cloud deck should continue to see erosion on its northern edge through this afternoon and evening as the trough moves eastward, but there is some question as to how long the cloud cover advecting into northern Missouri will last. The start to the workweek will see the return to sunny skies but will remain on the cool side with high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s across northern Missouri to upper 30s south of Interstate 70.
736 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of precipitation to parts of the region tonight.
619 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 A few respectable bands of snow showers are continuing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon ahead of a cold front pushing through western Minnesota. The cold front will progress across the remainder of the area by early this evening with gusty northwest winds and strong CAA developing behind it. Thermal troughing overhead Monday will make it difficult to reach 20 for a high. Here, temperatures may drop lower than currently forecast, but it will depend on the timing of the high and mid level clouds.
Surface analysis charts show a low pressure center located over souther TX/souther LA with the warm front stretching into central AL. Temperatures are in the low 40s to low 50s across the Mid-South. Rain coverage will continue to increase across the County Warning Area this evening and into the overnight hours as the upper-level trough moves through southern AR and central TN overnight. At this time, the only accumulations expected would be on grassy surfaces as well as bridges/overpasses as ground temps are still well above freezing. High pressure will move in to start off the workweek.
It will become breezy and cooler mid to late afternoon following the passage of the front.
There is still potential for a mountain wave to develop tonight with around 40 kt ridgetop flow. The next trough will approach Colorado early tomorrow morning and light snowfall will begin in the northern mountains. This snowfall will spread out in the mountains through the day, but only very light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in the highest terrain are expected Monday. Models have an upper trough pushing eastward across the forecast area Monday night.
237 PM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 Upper level analysis has northern CONUS trof shifting east, with ridge building across the Rockies. Skies are variably cloudy across the Northern Plains at the moment, with high clouds spilling over the western ridge. At the surface, weak cold front has passed through much of the forecast area with northwest winds breezy in spots. Western ridge will shift across the Rockies tonight and across the Plains on Monday. Cool temperatures will remain across the area as surface Canadian high pressure slides through the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Next system will begin to move into the area Monday afternoon, as ridge shifts east and a strong trof slides south along the spine of the Rockies.
Rain is currently spreading into Middle Tennessee from a low pressure system centered over the Deep South. Middle Tennessee is and shall remain on the cold side of this system, so we'll be watching temperatures closely as they slide toward freezing during the next several hours. The low will track toward the northeast during the next several hours, with Middle Tennessee remaining on the cold side of the low throughout this entire upcoming event. Rain may mix with snow at CKV toward morning, but temperatures should remain just above freezing.
404 PM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 Upper level analysis has northern CONUS trof shifting east, with ridge building across the Rockies. Skies are variably cloudy across the Northern Plains at the moment, with high clouds spilling over the western ridge. At the surface, weak cold front has passed through much of the forecast area with northwest winds breezy in spots. Western ridge will shift across the Rockies tonight and across the Plains on Monday. Cool temperatures will remain across the area as surface Canadian high pressure slides through the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Next system will begin to move into the area Monday afternoon, as ridge shifts east and a strong trof slides south along the spine of the Rockies.
625 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 Aviation -- Cold with light lake effect snow on Monday -- -- More quiet/mostly dry weather this week -- -- Cold with light lake effect snow on Monday -- Nrn stream trough dips south into the nrn GrtLks Rgn late tonight into Monday which drives a sfc cold front through.
A cold front has influenced much of today's weather across the area with light snow and gusty 25 to 35 plus mph northwesterly winds, and will continue to do so into tonight with much cooler temperatures due to the strong CAA. Post-frontal, drier northwesterly air has scoured out the majority of the low-level cloud cover, and much of the area will be mostly clear tonight as high pressure noses in from the northwest. Cloud cover returns on Monday in response to a developing low pressure center across Wyoming. This system will slide southeasterly and, in combination with high pressure to the northwest, lead to southeasterly afternoon breezes across the CWA, strongest in central South Dakota with gusts of 20 to 30 mph.
555 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 00Z TAFS A squall line ahead of a strong cold front presently bisects the region and is pushing through LCH and AEX. Ahead of the warm front temperatures are in the 50s, while behind the warm front temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Surface winds are forecast to increase late Monday morning through the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure development over eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado. Surface winds are forecast to increase late Monday morning through the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure development over eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado. High pressure sets in overnight and skies are expected to continue clearing. Between the breeze and snowfall keeping things cooler, highs will generally be in the 40s.
The associated cold front currently near the MS River will sweep across srn WI during the early morning hours. We will see a trailing cold front from the low swing across tonight and shift winds to the northwest.
Temps will warm only into the lower to mid 40s for most areas.
927 PM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 The fresh snow cover and limited cloud cover has allowed temperatures to fall this evening resulting in a chilly night for the lower lying terrain. Temperatures are in the low single digits across the South Platter River Valley of Weld, Morgan, and Logan Counties. There is still potential for a mountain wave to develop tonight with around 40 kt ridgetop flow. The next trough will approach Colorado early tomorrow morning and light snowfall will begin in the northern mountains. This snowfall will spread out in the mountains through the day, but only very light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in the highest terrain are expected Monday. Models have an upper trough pushing eastward across the forecast area Monday night.
The low temperature forecast appears to be on track, with most locations dropping into the m-u 30s by the time precipitation ends tomorrow morning.
There is a large spread in current temps due to the lack of cloud cover in the north where temperatures are already below zero, compared to the south where low to mid level stratus is persisting and helping keep temperatures in the upper single digits above zero to the lower teens. In addition, a few flurries could fall out of the lower cloud cover in this flow. The flow may become southwest as the high leaves perhaps bringing some increased clouds, especially to the southwest. An upper low will push into South Dakota Monday afternoon.
156 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 There are still some lingering flurries across the eastern sections of the forecast area early this morning ahead of the cold front that was working across the region. Satellite is showing some clearing back to the west behind the front as an area of high pressure works in from the west. 06Z RAP shows drier air at 925 mb spreading over the area this morning as the high moves east and will show a decreasing trend in the clouds with a fair amount of sunshine expected for the afternoon. The area of high pressure will move off to the east overnight allowing low level warm air advection and clouds to spread back in.
Rain is currently spreading into Middle Tennessee from a low pressure system centered over the Deep South. Middle Tennessee is and shall remain on the cold side of this system, so we'll be watching temperatures closely as they slide toward freezing during the next several hours. A low pressure center continues to track northeastward across MS/AL with Middle Tennessee on the cold side of an associated frontal boundary that will stay to our south.
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 (This evening through Monday) As the upper level low tracks across the northern Big Country this afternoon, a few light showers will continue to be possible across the Big Country. Expect morning lows in the low to mid 20s for most locations, with the coldest readings in low lying areas and river valleys. Plentiful sunshine should allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 50s Monday afternoon.
Upper level trough over the region tonight will continue the threat for snow showers through early Monday morning. About a half inch to an inch of snow has fallen in the Upper Treasure Valley with the Lower Treasure Valley and Western Magic Valley seeing a bit more, up to 2 inches. Temperatures will warm above freezing on Monday which should melt some of the valley snow.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 31 52 39 48 / 50 0 0 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 49 34 45 / 60 0 0 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 49 28 49 34 45 / 70 0 0 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 25 48 30 42 / 90 0 0 40 80.
Around 2AM, temps across this area ranged from the lows 20s to the upper teens. A cold front was located from Boscobel to Independence and moving slowly into the area. Discussion Northwest flow aloft will bring in cooler H85 temps to the area today as a surface cold front moves across the area. The raw guidance has slightly warmer temps, likely due to cloud cover and the BC models are slightly cooler.
1149 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 Cold front has recently moved east of KGPT and continue to race east around 35 knots.
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 A few respectable bands of snow showers are continuing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon ahead of a cold front pushing through western Minnesota. The cold front will progress across the remainder of the area by early this evening with gusty northwest winds and strong CAA developing behind it. Thermal troughing overhead Monday will make it difficult to reach 20 for a high. Here, temperatures may drop lower than currently forecast, but it will depend on the timing of the high and mid level clouds.
1236 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 MVFR/IFR with local LIFR cigs will be possible at the terminals through 20Z as a cold front approaches and moves south through the region. A cold front will move through the region Monday, with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
/issued 908 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020/ Rain associated with a deepening low pressure system continues to fall over the Mid-South at this time. Snow should begin to mix in with the rain over Northeast Arkansas as Walnut Ridge just reported snow. Surface analysis charts show a low pressure center located over souther TX/souther LA with the warm front stretching into central AL. Temperatures are in the low 40s to low 50s across the Mid-South. Rain coverage will continue to increase across the County Warning Area this evening and into the overnight hours as the upper-level trough moves through southern AR and central TN overnight. At this time, the only accumulations expected would be on grassy surfaces as well as bridges/overpasses as ground temps are still well above freezing. High pressure will move in to start off the workweek.
Expect a cold start to the day with temperatures in the lower 20s and wind chills in the teens. Winds will begin to back out of the east later this afternoon as high pressure slides across the central CONUS. Another cold night is in the forecast for the Ozarks as lows fall into the lower 20s tonight.
Tranquil conditions will persist today into the evening period as weak ridging aloft transitions east through the Central Plains while a much drier air mass remains intact across the high plains of western Kansas.
Along with cooler temperatures in this area, there is a low potential for patchy fog to form in this area prior to sunrise. Further backing to the upper flow occurs Monday as the next upper level short wave trough moves over the Great Basin. The southwesterly flow aloft and falling heights will induce a lee trough across eastern New Mexico and enough of a pressure gradient to result in breezy south winds, especially up on the Caprock.
1236 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of precipitation to parts of the region tonight.
1001 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of precipitation to parts of the region tonight.
High pressure will begin to build in tonight and result in cold temps with lows in the teens to perhaps single digits up north where there is snow cover.
1236 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 Aviation -- Cold with light lake effect snow on Monday -- -- More quiet/mostly dry weather this week -- -- Cold with light lake effect snow on Monday -- Nrn stream trough dips south into the nrn GrtLks Rgn late tonight into Monday which drives a sfc cold front through.
1020 PM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 Upper level analysis has northern CONUS trof shifting east, with ridge building across the Rockies. Skies are variably cloudy across the Northern Plains at the moment, with high clouds spilling over the western ridge. At the surface, weak cold front has passed through much of the forecast area with northwest winds breezy in spots. Western ridge will shift across the Rockies tonight and across the Plains on Monday. Cool temperatures will remain across the area as surface Canadian high pressure slides through the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Next system will begin to move into the area Monday afternoon, as ridge shifts east and a strong trof slides south along the spine of the Rockies.
Temperatures were in the upper 60s to lower 70s prior to FROPA but have since dropped into the low to mid 50s with strong northwest winds. temperatures are now at the lows we had this morning headed for the upper 30s to near 40 by sunrise.
Gusty northeast winds courtesy of a tight pressure gradient and even a few gravity waves for good measure elevating gusts to 25-30 mph in valleys, and 35-40 mph atop the higher elevations.
Strong southerly flow this evening between 10 to 15kts gusting 25kts turns westerly from west to east across the region as a cold front pushes through. A low pressure system is currently located across southwestern MS, with a warm front draped across north-central AL and a cold front extending southward from the low into southeastern LA and the northern Gulf of Mexico. Along this cold front, a low-topped line of convection exists about 60 miles west of I-59. Cloud cover lingers for most of the day Monday, with highs only reaching the lower to middle 50's for most locations. Skies begin to clear out Monday night, with lows dropping into the lower to middle 30's northwest of I-65, and upper 30's to lower 40's to the southeast of I-65.
South winds will increase tonight ahead of a cold front so the fog will dissipate from south to north during the overnight, probably around or shortly after midnight. On Monday, southwest winds will increase ahead of a cold front with isolated showers moving west to east across the area, mainly from late morning and early aftn across the north, pushing south of Orlando during the mid to late aftn. On Mon, SW flow 15 knots nearshore and 20- 22 knots well offshore ahead of a cold front.
908 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 Rain associated with a deepening low pressure system continues to fall over the Mid-South at this time. Snow should begin to mix in with the rain over Northeast Arkansas as Walnut Ridge just reported snow. Surface analysis charts show a low pressure center located over souther TX/souther LA with the warm front stretching into central AL. Temperatures are in the low 40s to low 50s across the Mid-South. Rain coverage will continue to increase across the County Warning Area this evening and into the overnight hours as the upper-level trough moves through southern AR and central TN overnight. At this time, the only accumulations expected would be on grassy surfaces as well as bridges/overpasses as ground temps are still well above freezing. High pressure will move in to start off the workweek.
A low pressure system is currently located across southwestern MS, with a warm front draped across north-central AL and a cold front extending southward from the low into southeastern LA and the northern Gulf of Mexico. Along this cold front, a low-topped line of convection exists about 60 miles west of I-59. Cloud cover lingers for most of the day Monday, with highs only reaching the lower to middle 50's for most locations. Skies begin to clear out Monday night, with lows dropping into the lower to middle 30's northwest of I-65, and upper 30's to lower 40's to the southeast of I-65.
1029 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 Currently - A ridge axis extends southwestward across South Florida and the Keys, resulting in light mostly east to southeast breezes across the Keys. Deep layered ridging is in place and this evenings soundings indicated multiple subsidence inversions above 850 mb with ample dry air aloft. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s, with dew points hovering around 70. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain light out of the east to southeast overnight due to the ridge axis remaining nearby. Expect shower activity to be almost nil due to the weak flow, lack of boundaries, background ridging and associated dry air aloft. A ridge axis across Keys waters will maintain light east to southeast breezes on Keys waters overnight.
401 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Main concern will be the next round of light snow tonight and Tuesday as an upper trough in the Great Basin ejects across the Rockies. Models show the system briefly becoming a closed low Tuesday over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle then moving east. Furthest west with placement is the GEFS mean from roughly McCook to Burlington, while the furthest east is the HRRR with the higher totals just east of the area, with the rest of the models somewhere in between.
Temperatures are not expected to warm above freezing for most areas today. The higher snowfall accumulations are forecast for central Nebraska.
Upper low which brought (is bringing) widespread snow to the Great Basin is exiting (trying to exit) the state. This will allow a short ridge to form over central to northern Nevada with clearing skies over Nevada Tuesday.
Where skies have cleared, temperatures have fallen off into the lower 20s and will likely bottom out in the upper teens with the current snow cover.
448 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Light snow will continue across the Northern Rockies through this morning, as a trough of low pressure swings south of the region. Temperatures are anticipated to warm above freezing for most valleys this afternoon, which will alleviate much the slick spots at present time.
After a cold start this morning, lots of sunshine today will help produce afternoon highs in the 50s; that's much cooler than usual mid December highs. This warming trend, although short-lived, will help produce overnight lows tonight much warmer than this morning and very close to seasonal normals.
A resurgence of the low stratus deck is expected tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly from JAN and MEI to the south. The low stratus deck will be pesky, but with low level flow becoming less convergent, breaks should become more common by this afternoon.
248 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Main concern will be the next round of light snow tonight and Tuesday as an upper trough in the Great Basin ejects across the Rockies. Models show the system briefly becoming a closed low Tuesday over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle then moving east. Furthest west with placement is the GEFS mean from roughly McCook to Burlington, while the furthest east is the HRRR with the higher totals just east of the area, with the rest of the models somewhere in between.
Scattered light snow showers are expected this afternoon north of Interstate 40 as another cold front moves quickly through northern Arizona.
Gusty northeast winds courtesy of a tight pressure gradient and even a few gravity waves for good measure elevating gusts to 25-30 mph in valleys, and 35-40 mph atop the higher elevations. Uneventful weather is expected tonight through Tuesday as high pressure shifts east through the Great Lakes, penetrating through the mid Atlantic and southeast as well. High temperatures will rebound into the lower 50s with sunshine expected.
950 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will settle in to the area today into Tuesday.
/issued 345 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020/ WV imagery shows yesterday's upper trough over the MS Valley, while the next one has made landfall on the west coast. A few high clouds are riding through weak upper ridging over the northern zones, but otherwise maximum radiational cooling is in full swing, w/a hard freeze already in place for most of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The aforementioned west coast trough is still forecast to dig southeast today, and arrive at the Panhandles at around 12Z Tuesday, dropping a Pac front into the area Tuesday afternoon and maintaining the cold streak, complete with another hard freeze tuesday night.
Tranquil conditions will persist today into the evening period as weak ridging aloft transitions east through the Central Plains while a much drier air mass remains intact across the high plains of western Kansas. Light snow is expected to develop across portions of western Kansas late Monday night/early Tuesday in an axis of increased H7 frontogentic banding associated with a cold front pushing through eastern Colorado. Areas of light snow will spread eastward across western Kansas into central Kansas Tuesday with medium range models remaining in fair agreement projecting a closed upper low developing in the Texas Panhandle early in the day, then tracking into western Oklahoma before lifting northeast through the Central Plains Tuesday night.
These 2 counties will be between the ridge to the northeast and an area of low pressure over eastern WY and far western NE. Plenty of clouds were invading from the west as a 500mb trough quickly nears from the Pacific Northwest. Highs on Tuesday will likely end up 7 to 10F warmer than today, back to near to above average temperatures for this time of year.
229 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough of cold air making its way through the Dakotas and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A ridge also lies over the Pacific Northwest and snakes its way west to off the coast of British Columbia as it extends north. Behind this lies several Pacific trough/ridge couplets.