Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
309 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Water vapor imagery reveals an impressively strong upper level low situated in the Canadian Maritime region slowly pulling away from the eastern seaboard. Across the Gulf of Mexico, a deep layer ridge remains anchored over the region. Between this high and the two aforementioned upper level lows is the subtropical jet which is transporting moisture from the east-central Pacific, across the US and feeding into the deep low over the Canadian Maritime.
123 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Dry and chilly through tonight as high pressure passes through the western Ohio valley. Highs this afternoon will range in the low to mid 40s while lows tonight fall back into the low to mid.
Currently a cold front is moving southward through the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
Nearly zonal flow aloft will be over the area today, as a sfc lee trough, is over ern CO. An upper trough moves into the northern & central Rockies and Northern & Central Great Plains Saturday night. This brings a significant cold front across the CWA Saturday evening/night.
The Canadian cold front will begin to cross over the Continental Divide late tonight where snow and blowing snow will begin to impact Marias Pass where 3-7 inches of snow are expected. This cold front will move southward through the morning hours. Road temps are expected to increase to above freezing by noon leaving behind some slushy roads.
Deep upper low is moving off the northeast US coast late this morning with cold upper trough moving across northeast third of the country. Expect highs only in the upper 30s highest elevations and mid to upper 40s southwest Virginia with 50s rest of the lower elevations.
Another minor adjustment was to increase wind speed and gusts along the cold front moving down from Canada this evening and tonight. For today, a mild day is on tap with temperatures near to above average as aforementioned ridge zips on through. Around mid-day a cold front will start to work over northwestern portions of the area, sliding across through the afternoon. For tonight, an upper level low starts to close off over northern Manitoba while a potent short wave rotates down into the Pacific Northwest. A cold front will move from northwest to southeast across ND late this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are favored behind the cold front, with north-northeast winds increasing to 10-15 kts.
A more broad area of weak low pressure develops Saturday morning, with light downslope flow across western Kansas.
Temperatures are slowly creeping down towards the freezing mark during the predawn hours as winds continue to relax. Highs on Saturday should be warmer despite the showers and cloud cover. Most locations should still warm into the lower to perhaps middle 60s as a low-level warm advection regime increases.
In the low levels, a cold front currently over the northern High Plains will advance southeast through the area on Saturday.
An abrupt change in our weather will arrive Saturday morning with the arrival of a strong cold front.
Cold front still on track to move through the region Saturday afternoon, producing blustery northwest winds along the I-84 corridor. Then a cold front moving south across the area will bring a few mountain MVFR/IFR snow showers mainly east of KMYL, with windy conditions developing during the day Saturday.
The lower clouds will continue to clear through the remainder of the afternoon, though high clouds will become increasingly widespread as they move in from the west.
The surface cold front that stalled along the coast overnight has moved south over the Gulf of Mexico, with the forecast area under cool, dry northerly flow. The forecast area is expected to remain under cool northerly flow the rest of the day into tonight, with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s overnight over the majority of the forecast area, well below seasonal norms. In response, low level flow becomes southeasterly by the end of the day Saturday and Gulf moisture begins to return, initially over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
332 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 High pressure keeps things quiet and cold through tonight. Low temperatures will be near freezing.
Conditions will remain dry overnight and into tomorrow as the closed low pressure slides to our south. A broad low pressure system spinning over Manitoba will eject an area of vort maxima along its trough axis, forcing a strong cold front to dive southward through the northern Rockies.
This will drive a cold front southward across the area on Saturday. Much cooler for the weekend, with highs in the 50s to mid 60s, cooler in the mountains.
All models and ensembles show short wave energy coming out of the northwest Saturday and Saturday night and combining with a northeast moving upper low pressure area from the southwest U. A cold front will push through our region tonight into Saturday morning bringing breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures on Saturday. Most all ensembles and operational models, except the EC model, show the area of northern South Dakota from Mobridge to Aberdeen to Sisseton and Wheaton, MN remaining mainly dry with maybe some light precipitation.
Temperatures warmed into the low 50s with light and variable breezes.
Would expect low clouds to start encroaching on southern terminals by Saturday afternoon as warm front returns northward.
Mid to low levels disturbance and associated cold front will continue to move across Florida through this afternoon and into the evening. Overnight temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler than this morning.
323 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Drier and cooler weather will prevail through today. High pressure Saturday will begin to shift east throughout the day with temperatures back into the 60s to lower 70s.
1127 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Northern stream influence will grow in the period as a massive western NOAM ridge supports anomalously cold long trajectory longitudinal flow in center NOAM. Primary cold front will advance into the region tonight, with falling temps into Sat. However, as the SW CONUS upper trough begins to shift east and phase, lift will increase across the region, maximizing Sat evening locally as the upper jet left exit region times over the FA, supporting a strong FGEN band given expected steep ll lapse rates which happen to be centered in the DGZ.
High pressure will provide dry weather tonight and Saturday, with the beginning of a warming trend.
Only resulting change was to place a bit more snow in our SW Phillips County, but this will likely be in the higher elevations of the Little Rocky Mountains. Previous discussion: Warm temperatures today across NE Montana will mean precipitation is set to begin as rain in most places as the next cold front arrives and pushes through the area. The highest totals will occur over higher terrain where locally heavier amounts are possible.
The potential for severe thunderstorms remains the highlight for Saturday's forecast. The highest risk area (Enhanced Risk) lies mainly along and south of a line from Brownwood, to Mertzon, to Ozona.
Highs in the 50s to the lower 60s still look good. A chilly morning with high pressure overhead, but moving southeast allowing for return flow to become better established today, though the stronger gradient is to the south so just a light south/southeast breeze. We will see the leading edge of precipitation with this feature move into the CWA, while at the same time a cold front drops across the Dakotas. This will result in late afternoon temperatures falling near the freezing mark.
Breezy NE winds will continue to bring cooler air into the region. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 60s, with highs expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s as fcst. N to NNE winds picking up in the wake of the low, around 8-10 kts this morning. Temperatures today will range from 15 to 20 degrees lower than yesterday in the wake of a cold frontal passage. South California mid/upper low will eject eastward and across the southern Plains moving through the weekend.
138 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2020 A low pressure system over Southern California will move eastward tonight.
227 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Upper low over Srn CA this morning will wobble eastward this afternoon and evening moving into AZ Saturday and NM Saturday night.
In the meantime, most of the short term forecast period will feature relatively benign weather with weak ridging at the surface and aloft into Saturday. Another chilly night tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s expected. Saturday we see temperatures moderate into the 50s, despite an early morning cold frontal passage. Thus while we had been messaging far southeastern MN as having the highest threat, we now can't rule out areas as far northwest as the southern Twin Cities Metro for warning-worthy snowfall accumulations.
1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure slides off to the east of the state.
1106 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Currently - Visible satellite shows that most of the low level clouds that developed overnight have since dissipated with the exception across the Upper Keys. Current observations show temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with dew points once again are in the lower 70s, making it feel quite muggy out. Weak cold front will traverse the length of the Florida Peninsula and eventually across the Keys by this evening. High pressure currently in the Central Plains will quickly shift southeast and emerge over the Atlantic Saturday afternoon.
254 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 The broad anticyclone currently over the region continues to shift southeast, which has backed the winds around to the west.
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 A strong warmup today ahead of an arctic cold front moving into Montana and North Dakota.
300 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Blustery winds will gradually subside tonight with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected across central Pennsylvania. The cold temperatures will threaten sensitive, early season vegetation in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
312 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Blustery winds will gradually subside tonight with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected across central Pennsylvania. The cold temperatures will threaten sensitive, early season vegetation in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
The front currently draped over south Florida with slowly begin to lose definition and high pressure will begin to bridge into the area from the north. Overall, it will again be humid and hot tomorrow, maybe a couple of degrees cooler with the cloud cover.
A few mid level clouds remain but skies should continue to clear with lows in the lower to upper 40s. A reinforcing shot of cooler air has arrived. As high pressure builds north of the region, we will see the brief period of cooler weather continue tonight with lows dropping into the 40s in most areas away from the coast.
733 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Blustery winds will gradually subside tonight with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected across central Pennsylvania. The cold temperatures will threaten sensitive, early season vegetation in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 The broad anticyclone currently over the region continues to shift southeast, which has backed the winds around to the west.
329 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Surface analysis showing a strong cold front moving into northern Montana this afternoon. As for timing on the northern cold front.
Lift from upper level short wave trough will continue to increase through mid evening. Rain in the vicinity of a cold front diving south into the High Plains region will begin spreading south late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Quiet conditions noted this evening ahead of the arrival of the cold front on Saturday.
911 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Blustery winds will gradually subside tonight with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected across central Pennsylvania. The cold temperatures will threaten sensitive, early season vegetation in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
531 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Surface analysis showing a strong cold front moving into northern Montana this afternoon. As for timing on the northern cold front.
702 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 High pressure will provide dry weather tonight and Saturday, with the beginning of a warming trend.
802 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Frost/freeze conditions will be in place overnight as chilly high pressure moves directly over Middle TN. Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
314 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Latest upper level analysis has west-northwest flow across the northern CONUS with large closed low over southern California. At the surface, high pressure resides across the midwest, with weak boundary shifting east across central SD. Near zonal flow continues across the area tonight as a weak cold front drops through. Stronger cold front will move through the region early Saturday as strong upper trof slides across the Northern Rockies.
The upper level closed low will continue its trek east Saturday morning across southern Cali bringing dry air ahead of it.
627 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 High pressure keeps things quiet and cold through tonight. Low temperatures will be near freezing.
/issued 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020/ Upper low over Srn CA this morning will wobble eastward this afternoon and evening moving into AZ Saturday and NM Saturday night.
With high pressure centered overhead tonight, temperatures are going to drop quickly. /issued 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020/ Drier and cooler weather will prevail through today. High pressure Saturday will begin to shift east throughout the day with temperatures back into the 60s to lower 70s.
By or shortly after sunset, sagging southward cold front will overtake dryline trough, increasing the probability of more widespread convection to the west of the forecast area.
530 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Latest upper level analysis has west-northwest flow across the northern CONUS with large closed low over southern California. At the surface, high pressure resides across the midwest, with weak boundary shifting east across central SD. Near zonal flow continues across the area tonight as a weak cold front drops through. Stronger cold front will move through the region early Saturday as strong upper trof slides across the Northern Rockies.
Rain in the vicinity of a cold front diving south into the High Plains region will begin spreading south late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
757 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Cold front has moved all the way through SW FL zones this evening with drier dewpoints and slightly cooler air filtering into the region as high pressure moved eastward through the Tennessee River Valley overnight. Mid to low levels disturbance and associated cold front will continue to move across Florida through this afternoon and into the evening. Overnight temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler than this morning.
Better chances of showers arrive during the afternoon, with the highest thunderstorm chances for the KMLC/KFSM sites. The evolution of convection from late Saturday through Saturday night is more uncertain, however the favored zone of lift will be along and north of the developing warm frontal zone likely along or just south of the Red River valley.
Tonight through Sunday night Model guidance has come into better agreement this afternoon regarding the evolution of the ejecting western trough. High pressure centered over northern Arkansas today has provided the state with virtually cloud free skies. The high will slip off to the east of the state tonight which will allow winds to turn back to the south with a corresponding increase in moisture, Meanwhile, A large and deep upper low is clearly seen on moisture channel imagery this afternoon over southern California. As the low kicks out, upper flow will turn southwest.
106 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Blustery winds will gradually subside tonight with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected across central Pennsylvania. The cold temperatures will threaten sensitive, early season vegetation in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
322 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Frosty start to the morning, with light winds areawide and temperatures approaching freezing for many locations east of I-65 and a few spots west of I-65. High pressure bringing our bubble of light winds will head quickly off the east as our next intense system begins to take shape out to the west.
Else, MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings will prevail through the morning until a warm front drifts north ahead of breezy S winds and VFR conditions. A slightly drier air in the lower levels pushing in from the east-northeast will continue to stabilize air mass over the coastal plains with the axis of higher instability west of the Rio Grande this evening. Satellite imagery shows another subtle short wave trough moving northeast out of Mexico toward the Brush Country.
By or shortly after sunset, sagging southward cold front will overtake dryline trough, increasing the probability of more widespread convection to the west of the forecast area. Still, chances will certainly increase the more widespread activity will move into the area and/or develop as the slowly moving cold front pushes through the area late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. This will also be with the arrival of strong ascent associated with the primary upper low moving across the Ozark Plateau.
Surface analysis showing a strong cold front moving into northern Montana this afternoon. As for timing on the northern cold front. Cool and a bit unsettled conditions look to hold over the CWA for much of the upcoming week resulting from a broad upper trough that will be over much of central and eastern North America.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure is situated across extreme southeast Colorado. A more broad area of weak low pressure develops Saturday morning, with light downslope flow across western Kansas. A warm front will surge northward in evening, providing a narrow zone of potential, however models are not showing initiation.
Then, thunderstorm activity should increase significantly after midnight as a strong upper level trough approaches from the west, bringing strong lift to the region. As the trough axis moves east across our region late tonight, the dry- line/front will be pushed east as well, with storm chances ending from west to east as it moves through.
1127 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Latest upper level analysis has west-northwest flow across the northern CONUS with large closed low over southern California. At the surface, high pressure resides across the midwest, with weak boundary shifting east across central SD. Near zonal flow continues across the area tonight as a weak cold front drops through. Stronger cold front will move through the region early Saturday as strong upper trof slides across the Northern Rockies.
This afternoon, temperatures have been widely in the low to mid 60s across the region with mostly clear skies.
1113 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Blustery winds will gradually subside tonight with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected across central Pennsylvania. The cold temperatures will threaten sensitive, early season vegetation in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Lift from upper level short wave trough will continue to increase through mid evening. Rain in the vicinity of a cold front diving south into the High Plains region will begin spreading south late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Light rain will mix with and change to light snow after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning with an area of freezing precipitation possible as surface temperatures drop below freezing before the cold air is deep enough to produce freezing temperatures through the whole column. Was not confident enough in the winds reaching or exceeding the high end of that range, so was reluctant to issue a High Wind Watch.
1109 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Blustery winds will gradually subside tonight with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected across central Pennsylvania. The cold temperatures will threaten sensitive, early season vegetation in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
ahead of the strong storm system moving out of the southern plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
VFR conditions throughout the forecast with surface ridging over the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 51 70 59 66 / 0 60 90 100 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 50 68 59 66 / 0 10 80 100 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 48 68 58 65 / 0 20 80 100 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 44 66 56 65 / 0 10 70 100 20 NC.
All models and ensembles show short wave energy coming out of the northwest Saturday and Saturday night and combining with a northeast moving upper low pressure area from the southwest U. A cold front will push through our region tonight into Saturday morning bringing breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures on Saturday. Most all ensembles and operational models, except the EC model, show the area of northern South Dakota from Mobridge to Aberdeen to Sisseton and Wheaton, MN remaining mainly dry with maybe some light precipitation. The period begins on Sunday with a low pressure system passing south and east of the CWA. Even with breezy northerly winds, widespread blowing snow should not be an issue due to limited accumulating snow and temps in the low to mid 30s.
1207 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure keeps things quiet and cold through tonight. Low temperatures will be near freezing.
345 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight.
(Saturday) The potential for severe thunderstorms remains the highlight for Saturday's forecast. The highest risk area (Enhanced Risk) lies mainly along and south of a line from Brownwood, to Mertzon, to Ozona.
940 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Low pressure centered over the CA Bight this afternoon, will move inland tonight, and out of the region on Saturday.
Frost/freeze conditions will be in place overnight as chilly high pressure moves directly over Middle TN. Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has arrived. As high pressure builds north of the region, we will see the brief period of cooler weather continue tonight with lows dropping into the 40s in most areas away from the coast.
Clouds moving in late tonight will generally keep temperatures at or above freezing, so plan on sticking with a frost advisory for tonight with no changes.
In the meantime, most of the short term forecast period will feature relatively benign weather with weak ridging at the surface and aloft into Saturday. Another chilly night tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s expected. Saturday we see temperatures moderate into the 50s, despite an early morning cold frontal passage. Thus while we had been messaging far southeastern MN as having the highest threat, we now can't rule out areas as far northwest as the southern Twin Cities Metro for warning-worthy snowfall accumulations. Temperatures will also remain cooler than normal.
422 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Frosty start to the morning, with light winds areawide and temperatures approaching freezing for many locations east of I-65 and a few spots west of I-65. High pressure bringing our bubble of light winds will head quickly off the east as our next intense system begins to take shape out to the west.
621 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will be building in today.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1019 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Middle/East Tennessee. Short term models continue to indicate a warm front will start to lift northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight into Sunday. However, the main event is expected to begin Sunday afternoon as models continue to indicate the aforementioned warm front moving north across Central Mississippi into portions of North Mississippi Sunday afternoon.
Cold front gradually sweeping down from secondary low is now pushing through southeast/far south central North Dakota. Therefore, have increased snow amounts a little bit, but accumulations still look to hold in the one to four inch range, mainly over Bowman and Adams Counties with the highest amounts on the South Dakota border. A cold start to the week is on tap as upper low drops down to our east, then meanders off to the east.