Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
322 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (This evening through Friday) An upper level trough will push through today and tomorrow keeping temps pleasant and the area dry. As the trough pushes out toward the end of the short term, a small chance of precip begins to present itself across the far NE GA mountains, as a low off the coast injects moisture down the spine of the Appalachians. Given the low level moisture profile with mid and upper level dry air, the mornings will continue to provide a good environment for fog formation.
Played the high end of guidance given that models usually aren't warm enough in this type of regime. Low-level thickness progs suggest max temps at least a degree or two warmer than today.
220 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 The pattern aloft this afternoon features high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico with a trough off the Carolina coast. At the surface, high pressure to our northeast extends southward over the region. High pressure will remain to our north for the next few days, with northeast flow continuing over the waters.
1010 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Nudged high temperatures down a couple of degrees in the east today with stratus settling in and the cold front already through the forecast area.
Satellite water vapor channel shows an upper level trof extending from NW Arizona northward to Montana. Moderate BL moisture has advected in across the FA with dewpoints in the lower 50s. Instability will also lag ahead of the main synoptic system with MUCAPE not developing until dewpoints continue to increase as well as mid level cooling ahead of the synoptic trof. The overall trof is pretty dynamic with CAA in the wake of the trof. As a result, have gone with much colder highs, with values mainly in the low 40s for much of the FA.
117 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 High pressure will continue build into the area, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. High pressure continues to dig in along the east coast, continuing the stretch of warm and dry weather. Strong northwest flow aloft have dropped PWATs down well below an inch on the backside of the slow moving 500mb trough off the NC coast. As the upper low that moved across the region Mid-week continues to drop southward and well east of the Florida Coast, our area will see an upper ridge axis move into the cwa as we remain between systems. With the building ridge aloft, and an increasing onshore flow in the lower levels, afternoon temperatures will be rather mild, with highs again in the mid to upper 70s.
High pressure ridging along the Eastern Seaboard extending SSW into the NE Gulf with lower pressures off of the FL east coast are channeling winds southward as the pgrad tightens. Mostly dry conditions will persist with high pressure to the north, though an ISOLD shower cannot be ruled out, mainly near the coastal TAF sites.
Details: The cold front is plodding its way across the forecast area today. This will continue to push southeast, ushering in northerly winds and cooler/drier air. This evening, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop as forcing from the upper trough arrives from the west. High temperatures are now forecast to only reach the low 40s. Another uptick in precipitation may arrive in the evening (although this favors areas to our east) as the upper trough moves through.
Tonight and Friday Warm and breezy conditions with shallow cumulus clouds will prevail across the region through the early evening hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The approaching cold front will front showers and scattered thunderstorms from west to east overnight. Highs on Friday will vary quite a bit with highs in the 50s during the morning across north-central Wisconsin with falling temperatures during the afternoon behind the cold front and middle 60s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin given the later arrival of the cold front and push of cold air.
440 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Water vapor shows splitting trof extending from the Northern Rockies through the Desert SW. At the surface, cold front has shifted well south/east of the forecast area with high building into eastern MT. A cold night expected areawide with widespread lows in the teens to lower 20s, and a few degrees warmer in south central SD.
Snow will also occur in the lower elevations early Friday morning, but will change over to rain by noon.
Discussion: High pressure building into the region today at the surface and aloft has brought mostly sunny skies after a slower start due to patchy fog in many areas this morning. Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 11-04 81(1909) 80(2003) 81(2003) 79(2003) (Friday night through next Thursday) Key Messages: 1.
High pressure continues to dig in along the east coast tonight, but will begin to move off the New England coast on Friday. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 50s. Easterly flow begins to develop during the day Friday as the upper low pushes well offshore as upper ridging begins to build over the area with rising heights.
Currently - A large pressure ridge extends from off the northeast Atlantic coast, across the Atlantic states and into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are seasonably warm and rather humid with temperatures near 80 and dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will pivot clockwise overnight while the weak troughing off of Florida holds position. Forecast soundings suggest the low level dry air and inhibition seen in this evenings sounding will be short lived, or may already be gone. A ridge extending over the Atlantic states and the Gulf of Mexico will result in northeasterly to easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period. Nighttime RGB imagery suggests very few boundaries near and upstream (to the east) from the Lower Keys for these showers to propagate closer to the island chain.
Dry and warmer weather arrives over the weekend. The wintery mix of precipitation is moving rather quickly across northern Arizona this afternoon as the progressive trough axis currently sits near Arizona's western border. Temperatures have begun to drop at several locations as the cold front pushes eastward ahead of the upper-level trough. Frigid temperatures behind the cold front will lead to widespread freezing conditions across much of northern and central Arizona tomorrow morning. Many of the valley locations will drop into the low 30s or to mid 20s while higher elevations will experience temperatures in the teens and nearing single digits. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the lower elevations of Yavapai County and northern Gila County as much of this area will experience their first hard freeze of the season.
Friday will see the arrival of a trough that will bring a long stretch of unsettled weather across the silver state. The upper level trough that has been impacting the silver state for the past few days is departing the region to the east through the rest of today and Friday. The winds are gusty and from a northerly direction across the silver state today as we are under tighter pressure gradient of the west side of the trough. Temperatures will warm slightly for Friday with highs warming back into the low 40s to low 50s.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level trough will push through today and tomorrow keeping temps pleasant and the area dry. As the trough pushes out toward the end of the short term, a small chance of precip begins to present itself across the far NE GA mountains, as a low off the coast injects moisture down the spine of the Appalachians. Given the low level moisture profile with mid and upper level dry air, the mornings will continue to provide a good environment for fog formation.
812 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 High pressure centered north of the area Tonight will result in mostly clear skies across the forecast area, although some high- res guidance suggests development of patchy fog interior areas and low clouds spreading from coastal water over coastal counties late Tonight.
No adjustments necessary to existing forecast as remaining shower activity over Charlotte/Lee counties continues moving S and offshore through the evening followed by mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight with lows in the low/mid 60s with upper 60s along the immediate coast. The pattern aloft this afternoon features high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico with a trough off the Carolina coast. At the surface, high pressure to our northeast extends southward over the region. High pressure will remain to our north for the next few days, with northeast flow continuing over the waters.
1030 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front swept through this morning and brought scattered showers across the area. Early this afternoon, the cold front was well off to the east of the area stretching from northeastern Wisconsin curving through southeastern Iowa. Then temperatures increase into the lower 70s by the afternoon with mostly sunny skies and a few developing cumulus clouds.
(Today and tonight) The main feature to watch on the weather map this morning is the cold front as it drops steadily into north Texas. Given the inverted-V signature on multiple forecast soundings, along with modest winds from a mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper-ridge, there is ample support for gusty winds and possibly some small hail this afternoon and evening from any storms that develop. Low temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than the past several nights due to the drier airmass moving in.
A cold front will move into our area late today and exit tonight, along with some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms Discussion: An upper trough will be digging into the region during the short term, and the cold front currently moving into the Ohio Valley will move southeast. However, there looks to be enough moisture and modest convective energy for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of and near the front, with the highest probability across the north.
(Today and tonight) A cold front did result in isolated to scattered convection yesterday, first across northern portions of the area once the moist PBL was heated/mixed sufficiently late in the afternoon. Post-frontal cooler/drier northeasterly flow will be a noticable change today across the area. Upper 50s are expected there, with a few low-lying areas slightly cooler.
Used the lower end of the guidance envelope for min temps, resulting in mid 40s northwest, upper 40s Platte River Valley and central Sandhills, and lower 50s far southwest and north central. Any associated forcing will remain well off to the west, and the forecast area stays in northerly flow in the low levels. Trended toward the guidance mean with forecast values generally in the lower 50s areawide. Rounding out the week, the large upper ridge spreads out onto the Great Plains, enhancing the late summer/early fall warmup.
/Issued 259 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ Synoptic setup for today has the CWA on the southern border of a Great Lakes trough with a high over the western US and the beginnings of a tropical wave down in the Gulf. By Wednesday afternoon the aforementioned trough is expected to sink further into the area, bringing another frontal boundary towards the area. Simultaneously, the wave in the Gulf is expected to approach the Florida/Alabama coast advecting deep tropical moisture across all of central Georgia and to portions of northern Georgia before getting swept up into the trough. Reaves A dry front will push into north GA on Thursday -- with an associated upper-level trough pivoting across the Great Lakes states and OH River Valley -- effectively pushing most of the Gulf moisture eastward and out of the CWA.
Light winds from the southeast becoming northeasterly behind a cold front by early morning and more easterly tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight are expected to be similar to the last few nights, in the 60s and lower 70s for most, with some upper 50s possible across the higher terrain. The upper pattern will become increasingly amplified Wednesday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes region sends a weak cold front south across the Plains and across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas early in the day on Wednesday. Temperatures behind the front may only be a degree or two cooler than today, though convergence along this boundary will act as a focus for convection Wednesday afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered storms possible generally along and south of I-20.
A broken line of thunderstorms developed ahead of the main cold front this afternoon and continues moving east/southeast through the center part of the cwa. There are isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the main cold front across far northern IL currently. As cooler air spreads across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, there will be a chance for lake effect rain showers across northwest IN, mainly Porter County.
342 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Quiet weather continues for the short term as strong upper level ridging remains in place across the western US. After a cooler day yesterday, warm air advection will push warmer air back into the region for today and tomorrow. This will easily allow for surface temperatures to rise into the 80s today and into the low 80s to low 90s for Thursday.
Cold front will cross northern Michigan this evening. As cooler air arrives overnight expecting to see an increased response off Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan with more clouds and some showers by morning.
Temperatures are 7 to 13 degrees lower than 24 hrs ago, with dewpoints in the low 50s. MSAS and surface observations show the cold front that brought storms to portions of our eastern and northeast counties in IL yesterday, was near a SGF, to CMI, to ASW line. Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over southern Ontario, with a few pieces of energy rotating around it as well as a large upper high out west centered over Utah. Cyclonic flow aloft will continue to usher in cooler and drier air over the outlook area today. Overnight temperatues will drop into the low 50s.
Although some of the models will support relatively mild overnight lows around 60 degrees or higher in the far southeast sections (Pratt/Coldwater/Medicine Lodge) there is ample model data supporting lows falling as low as the low 50s across sections of west central Kansas by Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks pleasant with light winds courtesy of the subsidence before a slight southwest downslope component returns on Thursday - leading to a return to warmer temperatures in 90s area wide once again.
Flow will turn more northwesterly over our area late Wednesday evening into Thursday as the Gulf system lifts north to the east of our area and a secondary cold front begins moving into the southeast states. By early Thursday it appears that the front will likely have worked all the way southeast across our area, moving out over the Gulf waters by midday Thursday and much drier and somewhat cooler air begins to filter into the region. With the expected cloud cover and slightly cooler air moving in, daytime highs primarily in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows Wednesday night ranging from the upper 60s to around 70 north of Highway 84 to the lower 70s south of Highway 84 down to the I-10 corridor.
1152 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The cold front is currently along a Kirksville to Kansas City line and moving southeast. Our region will remain pinned between mid level ridging to our west and troughing to the east, which will result in northwesterly flow throughout the troposphere through Thursday. This will keep humidity low with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
212 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Convection continues to fester across parts of east central OK and western AR, ahead of the cold front that is draped along the I-44 corridor at this time. Otherwise, the cold front will clear the region later this morning, with cooler temps (actually closer to seasonal norms) expected areawide. Low dewpoints and light winds due to surface ridging conditions will allow temps to fall off nicely tonight, with lows in the mid 50s/lower 60s for Thursday morning. Unfortunately, temperatures will quickly bounce back to above normal by late week and into the weekend as the western ridge shifts east.
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The forecast remains on track as high pressure begins to build into western North Dakota. On Wednesday, upper low shifts east with upper ridge also creeping east.
A cold front will drop south through the state through this afternoon. Today Through Thursday Night A cold front is dropping south into the state early this Wed morning. Dewpts will drop into the 40s and 50s by this afternoon well behind the cold front as a NRLY breeze develops behind the front.
628 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front did result in isolated to scattered convection yesterday, first across northern portions of the area once the moist PBL was heated/mixed sufficiently late in the afternoon. Post-frontal cooler/drier northeasterly flow will be a noticable change today across the area. Upper 50s are expected there, with a few low-lying areas slightly cooler.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tonight with a repeat of today expected for Thursday.
/Issued 207 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021/ Currently a mid to upper level ridge axis sit over the Inner Mountain West with high pressure centered just to the northwest of the Four Corners Region. Downstream low pressure sits just north of the Great Lakes. Over the next couple of days both the trough and ridge will drift to the east leaving the FA under building high pressure. Today's cooler temperatures will be thanks to a brief frontal passage but WAA will quickly return Thursday as the winds shift back to the southwest. Downsloping winds with the increasing high pressure aloft will send temperatures right back to the mid to upper 90s.
This continued northwest flow should advect in cooler air, such that even with the sunny day temperatures should max out in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. The precipitation chances will come to an end as we move into the evening and overnight as high pressure moves into the area and temperatures cool. As for winds it looks like another gusty afternoon before the high pressure moves in and brings down the pressure gradient and therefore the winds as we head into Wednesday night. High pressure and northwest flow aloft will produce quiet weather Wednesday night into Thursday.
611 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Cooler and drier air will move in for today and Thursday. Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight and Thursday as the cooler air overspreads the region. Storms associated with a cold front and upper level system have weakened and moved out of the area early this morning. Cooler and drier air will continue to spread over the area behind a cold front.
Sfc moisture should mix out a bit, but drier air is also advecting in from the north ahead of the next cold front/reinforcing shot of cooler air dipping into the eastern half of the CONUS. The short wave is digging into the low over the Great Lakes region, further amplifying the pattern at h5, and sending another front this way in the overnight hours. In the wake of the upcoming cold front, noticeably drier air will advect into the region on Thursday.
A strong mid/upper level high pressure remains centered over the Great Basin this morning and will result in another very warm to hot day across the interior. These temperatures look to be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, yet heat concerns look to remain confined to the region's typical hot spots and are not forecast to be widespread enough to warrant heat related hazards.
Decent mixing behind cold front will lead to gusty westerly flow with wind gusts into the 20-25 knot range this afternoon. Surface cold front has exited southeast as evidenced by veered westerly winds and departure of quasi-linear shower/thunderstorm activity. Base of amplified northern stream longwave featuring a closed low through 200 mb remains overhead today. Inherited temperatures remain on-track with highs in the mid-upper 70s and overnight lows in the low-mid 50s. Established anticyclone remains anchored over the Four Corners region Thursday while inbound Pacific wave initiates downstream compression of resident upper trough once wedged ridge axis pivots through central Canada. This results in confluent flow aloft with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions as temps peak in the low- mid 70s.
These showers/storms could initially clear out some of the low clouds/fog, but still could see that development through the morning.
528 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The H500 hand analysis map is showing ~600dam ridge centered over the Great Basin. The high center will slowly translate to southeast of the 4 Corners over the next 48 hours and keep hot. Very dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains firmly in place overhead, also allowing smoke to remain trapped.
622 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 (Today and tonight) The main feature to watch on the weather map this morning is the cold front as it drops steadily into north Texas. Given the inverted-V signature on multiple forecast soundings, along with modest winds from a mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper-ridge, there is ample support for gusty winds and possibly some small hail this afternoon and evening from any storms that develop. Low temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than the past several nights due to the drier airmass moving in.
High pressure should continue expanding eastward through the day today. Starting the period, a southwest CONUS high will be in place with an associated ridge over the Dakotas. With this, warmer temperatures will advect into the area leading to a fairly sharp gradient in highs for Thursday.
All models show the strong upper level high, which is responsible for the much warmer than normal temperatures, drifting eastward between the Four Corners region and the central Front Range by late this week.
The cold front which brought shower and storm activity to parts of the area earlier this morning has largely cleared the TAF sites. /Issued 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021/ Convection continues to fester across parts of east central OK and western AR, ahead of the cold front that is draped along the I-44 corridor at this time. Otherwise, the cold front will clear the region later this morning, with cooler temps (actually closer to seasonal norms) expected areawide. Low dewpoints and light winds due to surface ridging conditions will allow temps to fall off nicely tonight, with lows in the mid 50s/lower 60s for Thursday morning. Unfortunately, temperatures will quickly bounce back to above normal by late week and into the weekend as the western ridge shifts east.
421 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The northwest flow will become more westerly today as the strong ridge flattens a bit. The ridge axis will pass over the state this evening.
EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon then move slowly southeast through central North Carolina tonight and Thursday. Drier and cooler high pressure pressure will build into the region thereafter. Once this moves out into VA, another round of scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening with peak heating and an approaching cold front out of the Ohio Valley. Lingering showers/low cloudiness and cooler Thursday. The cold front is expected to stretch from NE to SW through central NC at 12z/Thursday beginning the day.
This will allow for another mostly sunny day with some lingering breeziness on the backside of the aforementioned trough. Not much of consequence for Thursday either with upper level ridging still in place to our west.
with both temperatures and dewpoints climbing towards the weekend as high pressure across the intermountain west shifts further east. as heights aloft begin to rise in response to the shifting ridge of high pressure to the west. This ridge will help deflect any approaching disturbances well north and east of the local area.