Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
THE LOWEST 1KM WET MAX BULB TEMPERATURE IS AROUND ZERO THERE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY ALLOWING EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF WOULD BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANCHORED MAINLY SOUTH OF 54/400 FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/STRONGER H5 FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH. THE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND SHEAR EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD NOT RISK ANY FROST GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING.
416 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
28/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THIS FRONT HAS MANAGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WHILE THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
THE BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND EJECTS STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS S TX AND A DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE W CWA.
WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IN WITH WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE TN RIVER. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH CKV AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BNA AND CSV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Forecast soundings indicate the low clouds will return with the fog, at least across the north, for several hours early this morning with the better rain chances this afternoon into the evening across the north as the last of the surface waves shifts off to our east. Another day with a wide variation in temperatures with the cooler afternoon highs across the far north where cloud cover will be more extensive. Upper level low that is responsible for all the weather today is slow to move through the region tonight. Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend as a warm frontal feature lifts into the region.
344 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
340 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO THE MID 80S. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016 WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN PUMPING MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A GENERAL AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SLUNG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE SEEING ON FORECAST MODELS 24 HOURS AGO.
BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES REMAINED NEAR FREEZING LEADING TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARMER THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL KEEP A MAINLY DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 Low level moisture starting to lift back north out of southeast Texas this afternoon ahead of upper low currently moving through the desert southwest. Low level jet will begin to increase across north Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight as upper low moves into the four corners region by 12z Friday. Overall tornado threat will likely depend on how far north warm front lifts into southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. If the morning convection is too widespread or lingers into the afternoon hours, the warm front would likely remain further south near the red river. In addition, any residual boundaries would support an enhanced tornado threat, especially given the low LCL heights expected. Regardless, a severe/heavy rainfall threat will continue Friday evening into the overnight hours as the main upper low lifts into the central plains.
307 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PINWHEELING ALONG THE NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MN BORDER. THE CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE FILLING. DRYING NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ON LOW CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS.
THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET WILL BE ALONG/OVER THE RETURNING WARM FRONT 29/03-09Z.
FOR ANY LINGERING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING NOW THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. QUANDARIES ABOUND ON ACTUAL RAINFALL COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN PUSHES NWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALONG WITH SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE MID STATE REGION BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH CKV AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BNA AND CSV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FRONT AND ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BUT LIFT IS LACKING SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
130 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure is weakly in place across the region.
Models develop convection along and ahead of a cold front moving southeast across Nebraska by late afternoon and move southeast across north central and northeast Kansas. Temperatures today will be around normal with readings in the lower 90s. as a mid-level trough deepens across the Great Lakes region and into the Mississippi River valley. Models continue to show upslope flow across the High Plains by Thursday night.
Upper high pressure continues over the Great Basin, keeping light N-NW flow aloft over Colorado. The upper high will remain in place over the next 24 hrs, so another hot day with recycled moisture for the higher terrain is on tap.
Seasonal temps expected today, with even cooler conds thurs given clouds, moisture, and rain.
A ridge of high pressure will provide mostly clear skies and above average temperatures through the week. A large upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS and the Great Basin remains the prevailing weather feature for our area today resulting in another day of widespread triple digit heat for the San Joaquin Valley, southern Sierra foothills and Kern County deserts.
With surface and upper ridging continuing to build over the area, most locations will remain dry through this evening as subsidence and drier air aloft will limit storm development.
Lows are progged in the low 70Fs. The coverage of showers/storms wane this evening, with the focus shifting to a thickening and lowering of clouds back toward the lower end of MVFR overnight and into Thursday morning (excluding MGM-TOI, at this time).
Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s in Hamilton county to the lower 70s in Barber county. Strong 597 dm upper high will remain stationary over the Great Basin Thursday, allowing NW flow to persist aloft.
An upper level ridge wl be centered ovr the Great Basin today and tonight with drier air moving into the area from the west. The NAM and GFS show little chance for pcpn developing ovr the lower elevations this afternoon. For now, will leave the lower elevations dry this afternoon.
Continued high pressure across the southeast states will keep conditions hot across much of Georgia through the period. With ridging in place and no mid-level impulses to generate organized convection, feel the precipitation coverage will be limited again today. Perhaps the high terrain will act as a catalysis for some initiation, with highest pops noted across the northern tier. Mid/upper 80s across the higher terrain. Clear and mainly calm overnight with the high still anchored to our east. The stacked SW flow around the high will be draped across the northern tier, which will be the axis for which any precipitation may occur. Will be another hot day in store with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s, apart from the higher terrain.
230 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist through the weekend. Forcing is limited and winds aloft quite weak with mid/upr ridge just to the S. Not much overall change with big ridge aloft cont to the S. Persistent mid-state trof and Bermuda high will continue into the weekend.
350 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 A cold front will approach tonight and stall across central areas on Thursday.
However, diurnal convection has shown some increase over the last hour or so, and this should be enhanced by the upper level low over ern LA today.
Cool air mass associated with a high pressure system to the northeast in Manitoba will keep temperatures below normal for highs on Thursday.
With mainly upper troughing over the area temperatures after today will be near normal to slightly below normal. Expect this to surge a little further south today with high pressure to the north building in, and thus think best chances for rain and storms will be south of the area.
341 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening, particularly along and south of I-70 where the low level convergence will be the strongest nearest the quasi-stationary front currently over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Lows tonight will likely fall be in the lower to mid 70s which is close to MOS lows.
Weak cold front moves into the region Thursday. Weak cold front will drop into the region Thursday and allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.
345 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 Ridge dominating the desert southwest. Northwest flow across the high plains. Train of disturbances riding the northern periphery of the ridge, which takes them over the CWA. Generally seasonal temperatures with 3 PM CDT in the lower to mid 80s. In and out of clouds and a slightly cooler airmass will result in temps a couple degrees cooler than today. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. lows in the upper 50s northwest to the low 60s southwest.
Also, still a bit of a weakness/hint at a weak upper level trough, so will continue with low chance POPs east and slight chance POPs west.
The next chance of rain comes Thursday with the approach of a cold front. Continued model uncertainty lingers through the weekend with GFS/Canadian strengthening high pressure over the area, keeping rain generally to the south.
The next chance of rain comes Thursday with the approach of a cold front.
215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 Northeast to east mid level flow between an upper level ridge near the Four Corners Region and a weak inverted trough across east Texas will continue through Thursday. Beyond Thursday through the weekend, deep easterly flow aloft will continue between an upper level ridge centered in the southern Rockies and a westward moving disturbance in central Mexico.
2)How long will the showers and isolated thunderstorms hold on in the inverted trough feature on Thursday. We are keeping a close watch on a warm front/old outflow boundary in place along near the Interstate 94 corridor late this afternoon. Further to the west a cold front is pushing east towards southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Showers and storms will gradually taper off Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening as high pressure builds in from the north. Will have to keep a close eye on any fog potential as skies clear under the high Thursday night across portions of central into northern Wisconsin.
The upper trofiness will hold strong Thursday and Thursday night, and with the very moist air mass still in place, as well as the nearly stationary boundary parallel to the flow aloft, we'll have repeated showers and thunderstorms.
Convective allowing models including the HRRR/HRRRx/UofA WRFs and locally run WRF models all suggest convection will continue to develop in the mountains and be advected southwestward into the lower elevations through late afternoon.
The upper ridge will expand eastward on Thursday, and with it, mid and upper level air noted on water vapor imagery. As a result models returning to warmer and drier pattern. From Thursday night right into the weekend, the upper ridge centered over the Southwestern Conus and Great Basin will keep northerly flow aloft across West Texas with only isolated or widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms. A seasonally significant disturbance is depicted moving southeast around the ridge from the central Plains into OK late Thursday night.
However, we are not seeing the low/mid level isentropic upglide signals that we have seen the last few nights. Low temperatures should once again be in the lower 70s. Scattered storms are again expected on Thursday as that short wave trough moves southeast across the area. High temperatures may be a bit warmer with highs expected to be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
The pesky cold front that has been impacting our weather over the past 24 hours will be along our southeastern border at 12Z this morning.
/issued 419 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Great Basin region today. Models indicate a subtle disturbance moving southwest across West Central Texas today, along the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. Highs today will be slightly cooler than what we saw yesterday, due to expected increased cloud cover and possible showers. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
Weak upper trof will spill over the ern periphery of the Four Corners ridge and swd into our region tonight into Thursday, merging with the stalled ely wave present over ern LA.
/Thursday through Wednesday/ Lingering showers are anticipated in the northeast and east central portions of the state on Thursday near trof axis.
Weak and increasingly diffuse cold front making slow progress south across northern Michigan. As mentioned, that upstream waves dampens on its approach overnight, with the cold front working south helping stabilize the environment in its wake.
301 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, maintaining uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week.
306 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Any convection will be isolated and mainly north and west of the region around the upper ridge. Large scale subsidence will allow for another hot day with 850 mb temperatures near or slightly warmer than previous days. The chance for showers and thunderstorms remains low with the ridge aloft and a drier atmosphere.
1134 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center setting up over the Great Basin with drier air aloft spreading over wrn and nrn NM. A mid-level high pressure system building over the Great Basin will funnel some drier air over northern and central New Mexico today and Thursday causing thunderstorm coverage to trend downward both days and temperatures to increase.
140 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Warm and mainly dry conditions can be expected until the approach of low pressure later tonight and on Thursday. POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress.
Overall coverage of storms should be less today as moisture decreases some and the upper level trough moves west.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 1 PM PDT, water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper- level ridge centered over the NV/UT/AZ border, with southeasterly flow aloft. Lingering moisture may develop a light shower over the high peaks of the San Bernardino County Mountains this afternoon.
and this trof was responsible for tstms that are on-going at this hour. This trof will cross the Cntrl Plains this evening. This trof will cross the Nrn Rockies tonight and approach the Cntrl Plains tomorrow eve. Both of these trofs will influence tstm development this afternoon and tomorrow. The 00Z NMM/WRF-ARW keyed on the high-based convection currently on-going over Wrn Neb and expanded it this afternoon.
In fact, the 00z NAM and 00z GFS indicate the closed low will meander in northeast Montana through Thursday night.
Lows tonight will be very pleasant as high pressure sags in to the James Valley. Highs should range from the mid 70s in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota to the lower 80s along the Missouri River Valley.
A weak cold front moves into the region Thursday. Weak cold front will drop into the region Thursday and allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s in Hamilton county to the lower 70s in Barber county. Strong 597 dm upper high will remain stationary over the Great Basin Thursday, allowing NW flow to persist aloft. Models remain in good agreement with keeping a northwest flow over the central plains through early this weekend as an upper level high remains nearly stationary across the southwestern United States.
207 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the area through Thursday. Another hot and humid day in store for today with high pressure remaining off the se coast. High temps in the low/mid 90s this aftn.
The low near the Arkansas-Louisiana border will get picked up by the westerlies on Thursday and leave the local area in a col, which should significantly limit the development of precipitation tomorrow. With more sunshine expected, high temperatures should return to the lower 90s on Thursday. Beyond Thursday, we remain in between the Four Corners ridge and the Bermuda high, which will allow the normal diurnally induced convection.
108 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the weekend while a weak trough persists inland. The center of the expansive subtropical ridge will continue to stagnate right along the southeast U. Convection allowing high resolution models are very scant on shower/tstm coverage this afternoon as anticipated with the high pres dome providing subsidence and quite warm temps aloft. Strong ridging overhead and the associated subsidence will keep the mid and upper levels warm and dry through the end of the workweek.
300 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure builds in from the north tonight with easterly winds developing as the low producing today's rain drifts off the south. Thursday will be mostly sunny and seasonable, except a bit cooler along the Lake Superior shoreline due to the easterly winds where highs will be limited to the 60s. Afternoon clouds may produce a brief shower due to steep low level lapse rates combined with the cooler air moving in aloft, but at this point think it will be just virga or a brief sprinkle given lack of large-scale forcing and drier air moving in at low levels. Quiet start to the extended with high pressure building into the region.
307 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 18Z surface data has low pressure near KMSP with a frontal boundary across northern Wisconsin. A cold front ran southwest from the low into central Nebraska. Late tonight, slightly stronger forcing arrives as the cold front begins moving through the area. Depending upon the cloud cover and precipitation coverage, high temperatures may be much cooler than forecast. Decreasing 850mb temps into the lower teens and a northerly component to the sfc winds will result in a comfortable night with lows in the low/mid 60s.
With the amount of instability and moisture present there will likely be convective development during the afternoon and possibly lasting into the evening hours on Thursday as an upper level trough makes passage.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a split in the subtropical ridge over Texas. The weakness in the upper level ridge is allowing convection to form across the area.
The main east- west oriented upper ridge continues to control the weather pattern across the southeastern states.
437 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure centered northeast of the region will keep southeasterly winds in place. Synoptically, powerful Bermuda ridge will be the dominant feature impacting South Florida weather through the short term. Although overall weather pattern is not expected to change through the extended, several features moving westward around the base of the deep-layer ridge will influence South Florida weather.
Although the storms are quickly losing support from a lagging upper trough and LLJ; fairly robust outflow and a thick cloud shield has already progressed well ahead of the storms, and may brush the northwestern forecast area later this morning. Weak high pressure in place ahead of the front will suppress much convergence along this trough's associated surface cold front, and timing of the frontal passage will also be unsupportive of surface-based convective initiation, but upper-level forcing should be enough to encourage elevated convection to develop after sunset.
For tonight into Thursday, the primary mid/upper-level trough will move eastward through the region.
Due to the low coverage in occurrence and weak forcing, have only slight chances mentioned through midnight. Overnight, upslope flow increases over the high plains, developing scattered showers and storms to our north and west. Temporary subsidence behind the departing upper trough should alleviate cloud cover through the day with overall cooler temperatures and weak northerly winds.
This high kept skies mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across central and southwest Wisconsin.
326 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 Convection is starting to deepen over the Laramie Range and vicinity this afternoon as expected, with cu starting to bubble over the Pine Ridge and even the Cheyenne Ridge as well. Down south across the Cheyenne Ridge, stratus may develop in moist upslope flow. For Thursday, models continue to show a favorable setup for severe weather across the high plains.