Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today through Monday night A Pacific Northwest trof will begin to push inland today. This will start to flatten the ridge, which will cause temperatures to cool slightly on Sunday, though not by much, as the area sees a good westerly push ahead of a dry cold front. As the trof moves through the West tonight through Monday, a dry cold front will drag through northern Nevada and stall out in the central half of the state. This will cool temperatures closer to normal on Monday, with highs in the mid 80's to the lower 90's. Overnight temperatures will mainly be in the 50's in the short term period, though will dip into the 40's in the coldest valleys of Elko County on Sunday and Monday night behind the cold front.
647 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Weak low pressure and a cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build in Monday and persist into midweek. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with warmest temperatures forecast for central Ohio. Thereafter high pressure will start to build into the region. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 60s tonight with highs back into the lower to mid 80s.
Another hot day is expected today with upper level ridging over the region. A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will flatten the ridge, but cooling onshore flow will be limited until this evening.
This results in a mid-week dry period with seasonally warm temperatures in the low to mid-80s.
High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A weak, dry cold front will move into northern Utah late Sunday, bringing a slight cooling trend to the north and breezy conditions in the south.
Temperatures will be a little cooler today with this boundary moving into the region with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. With slightly cooler temperatures expected today, heat index values should remain around 100 degrees this afternoon so a Heat Advisory is not needed at this time. By Monday, high pressure will build into the region bringing dry weather to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Breezy northerly winds are expected today between departing low pressure to the east and high pressure arriving from the west. The high will move overhead tonight into Monday, bringing lighter winds to the area.
A dry cold front is moving across the region this morning causing a few showers in northwest Montana. Most other locations will see some gusty winds and cooler temperatures due to the front. A dry cold front is moving across the region this morning.
A few weak ripples in the northwest flow ahead of approaching upper ridge may steepen lapse rates just enough to help spark some showers/storms, with any small chances being confined mainly along and east of the Mississippi River (east side of the ridge axis). High pressure remains in control going into Monday, with a mostly sunny day expected under large-scale subsidence. High temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow, with values in the low to mid 80s.
219 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After the passage of a cold front, expect a cooler and breezy weather across the Inland Northwest today.
/Issued 439 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020/ Cooler temperatures have returned to the area this morning, prompted by the drier air mass and increased radiational cooling.
By Monday or Monday night, the low level ridge axis will build west across the Keys into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The upper low traversing the forecast area has started it's transition from positively tilted to a more neutral tilt. As the upper low continues it's axis re-orientation it will drift south and east of the area allowing convection to diminish by 00z. The cooler air on the backside of the departing upper low will help overnight low temperatures reach about 5 degrees cooler than this morning. Heights aloft gradually rise over the course of the day on Monday which will allow high temperatures to reach into the lower 80s.
Sfc analysis shows cold front entering far northeast OK with lower dew points gradually spreading south through much of the area during the day. There is a slim chance of thunderstorm develop later today near the cold front in far southeast OK, but anything that develops will likely be south of the KMLC site. Convective potential later in the day will revolve around how quickly the cold front that is currently located to the north in Kansas pushes through the area. Cooler and much drier conditions will arrive behind the front for Monday, but the cooldown will be short lived, as the upper level ridge strengthens toward the middle and latter part of the upcoming week.
342 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Today and tonight will feature an upper trough over the eastern one third of the CONUS with a northwesterly flow component over the central Plains working into another upper level trough into the Pacific Northwest region. An anticyclone remains over the Desert Southwest region.
A weak cold front will push through the rest of the Mid-South this afternoon, with scattered showers possible through sundown. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with this boundary moving into the region with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. With slightly cooler temperatures expected today, heat index values should remain around 100 degrees this afternoon so a Heat Advisory is not needed at this time. By Monday, high pressure will build into the region bringing dry weather to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
The cold front continues to slowly push through Lemhi county and southwest Montana this afternoon. The front has brought gusty westerly winds and cooler air. The cooler air will remain over region on Monday keeping temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Cold front pushing through NE OK and NW AR early this afternoon will result in some increase in north winds, and may briefly bring MVFR ceilings. Sfc analysis shows cold front entering far northeast OK with lower dew points gradually spreading south through much of the area during the day. There is a slim chance of thunderstorm develop later today near the cold front in far southeast OK, but anything that develops will likely be south of the KMLC site. Convective potential later in the day will revolve around how quickly the cold front that is currently located to the north in Kansas pushes through the area. Cooler and much drier conditions will arrive behind the front for Monday, but the cooldown will be short lived, as the upper level ridge strengthens toward the middle and latter part of the upcoming week.
310 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 An upper level trough approaching late this afternoon will bring a weak surface front into the Appalachians tonight and into the central Carolinas Monday.
A cold front will settle into the region Monday, with breezy northwest winds developing behind the front. Large scale northern stream trough will move into central Canada Monday night. This will allow showers and storms to continue overnight as the upper trough moves through.
A weak, dry cold front will move into northern and central Utah today. High pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest Monday. A shallow but dry cold front is currently across far northern Utah and will gradually shift south and east through the day. Another round of high-based, weak convection is expected today across the higher terrain of Utah and potentially the adjacent valleys. Issued at 439 AM MDT The strong upper level ridge continues to remain parked over the Four Corners region, resulting in very hot and dry conditions over much of the forecast area.
Light southerly flow this afternoon will begin to slowly erode the drier air as the upper level trough axis swings toward the forecast area. Focus this evening will shift to the west as the trough axis moves into the through the Upstate and into the forecast area overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain on track for the mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Long wave trough from the Great Lakes through the eastern seaboard. A short wave trough will be moving thru possibly early in the day. Temps in the low to mid 90s.
Surface pressure rises indicate the anticipated cold front has passed through much of North-central and Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be slightly cooler but windy conditions and low relative humidity will bring an increased risk for fire weather concerns.
A dry cold front will work its way through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. The trough associated with the front will remain through Monday before the axis clears the forecast area. While no precipitation is expected, some additional cloud cover and cooler temperatures will impact the area through Monday.
High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather for tonight and Monday. This area will also be in cyclonic flow on the back side of the mid level trof progressing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Otherwise partly cloudy skies with north winds, to keep highs several degrees cooler than yesterday, primarily in the mid 80s. This system dropped into the region ahead of a short wave trof, which will slide through the ne corner of IL around sunrise. This trof development will hold the chance for isolated showers and storms across eastern IL through the morning. Otherwise comfortable conditions will prevail today, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Td will drop to near 60, with temps bottoming out in the low 60s.
241 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A drier and slightly cooler airmass continues to spread into the region from the north with a few gusts over 20 mph this afternoon. On Monday, winds will gradually shift back to southerly as high pressure moves eastward into the Ohio Valley and low pressure deepens over the TX/OK Panhandle. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions are expected with temperatures just a few degrees warmer than today. Our area remains on the periphery of a persistent upper level ridge over Texas and New Mexico through much of the work week. Keeping an eye on a stronger upper level trough that is expected to move eastward across the central U.
159 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A couple weak upper level disturbances will usher in cooler and less humid air through Monday.
Will keep POPs a bit lower in the afternoon because of this, then increase them into the high chance category Monday night. Lows on Monday night will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Subsidence from a stout 500mb ridge across the Desert Southwest will continue to produce hot, humid, and rain-free conditions for the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas in the short-term period. Similarly for tomorrow afternoon, model guidance suggests somewhat drier air will mix down from aloft, more noticeable west of I-69C with dewpoints dipping into the low-mid 50s by mid afternoon.
Forecast Confidence is high: High pressure overhead tonight will gradually slide to the east Monday into Monday night. Light and variable winds tonight will become light out of the south tomorrow on the back side of the high. Temps will likely be just a little warmer tomorrow than today. Clouds will begin to increase from the west later Monday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These clouds along with continued southerly winds will result in overnight lows a little warmer than what is expected for tonight.
By the evening and into the overnight, a jet streak rounding the southern side of a broad longwave trough over Canada will provide broad lift over the slowly moving surface boundary.
A longwave trough has begun to dig over the PACNW this morning. Winds will increase once again over the forecast area, as a cold front approaches from the west. The weak cold front will begin to move through northwestern portions this evening, moving southeastward through the overnight hours. Highs Monday will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler for many locations, as a result of the front. Instability near the front and trough may spark a few showers and thunderstorms for the north counties Monday afternoon.
222 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 The TN Valley remains situated between a trough along the East Coast and a ridge over the Plains. Overnight lows tonight will be seasonably mild as temps fall into the lower 70s. The first part of the upcoming work week looks to be fairly dry and warm over the TN Valley as a ridge continues to build eastward and towards the area. Subsidence associated with the ridge, along with dry air filtering within northwest surface flow, will keep rain chances very low.
The mid/upper level ridge centered near the El Paso area at the start of this period will gradually work its way across Texas and into the the central parts of the nation at the end of this period.
The upper high pressure system is expected to persist over the region during the period. Drier (GFS/ECMWF deterministic PWAT output) and slightly warmer (National Blend/GFS 1000-500mb thickness) conditions are expected over the CWA during the period.
Overall, activity should wane as the low-level jet helping to support storms is on the decrease. With expected height falls from next wave tomorrow, storms should erupt along and ahead of a cold front to the west and move in about 00Z (according to model world).
958 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Surface pressure rises indicate the anticipated cold front has passed through much of North-central and Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be slightly cooler but windy conditions and low relative humidity will bring an increased risk for fire weather concerns.
1114 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as mean upper troughing continues over the NE Pac. Cold front will settle into the region Monday with breezy NW winds developing behind the front. Large scale northern stream trough will move into central Canada Monday night.
250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 The dangerous heat remains at the center of the forecast as temperatures continue to soar beneath the eastern flank of a strong upper level anticyclone. However, more robust thunderstorm activity just getting going over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico will propagate east-southeastward into Texas this evening.
401 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cooler air will settle over the region through Monday as an upper level trough reaches the eastern Great Lakes.
High pressure will dominate central and southeast Illinois for tonight and Monday, bringing light wind, mostly clear skies, and seasonable temperatures.
1024 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After the passage of a cold front, expect a cooler and breezy weather across the Inland Northwest today.
348 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 The afternoon surface analysis shows a weak low pressure to our west, and this feature will progress east tonight along with a cold front. This as debris clouds have kept the Cumberland Valley cooler through the morning and afternoon.
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Upper level ridging continues to be the dominate feature in the upper levels, though as a British Columbia upper low advances across southern Canada, the ridge flattens and becomes suppressed to our south. Despite the ridge, showers and thunderstorms have impacted the Sandhills through north central Nebraska today as a LLJ and increasing moisture targeted the area. Attention is then placed on the High Plains and southwest Nebraska as the latest CAMS show additional development there. It appears the models have trended slightly faster with the arrival of the cold front, with an attendant warm front well north of the CWA before storm storm initiation. Though the models are still ambitious with storm development, first off the High Plains as early as 18z, with upscale growth to a convective complex impacting our area after 21z.
The latest surface analysis places a cold front from Louisville, Kentucky and southwest through Kennett, Missouri and back through Walnut Ridge, Arkansas.
222 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After a couple of stormy nights for some, the synoptic high pressure situated in the southwest US pushes a little further northeast.
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Upper ridging remained centered over NM and AZ per the 07Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, high pressure was slowly building south into the central plains. For today and tonight, surface ridging with dryer air is expected to increase convective inhibition.
A large upper-ridge remains centered over the AZ/NM border, but still has a strong influence on our region.
Expect temperatures to top out in the low to mid 80s inland, but only in the 70s along the lakeshore due to an afternoon lake breeze. Medium range models overall remain in pretty good agreement in depicting a seasonably strong upper level ridge centered over the southwestern U.
A small cumulus field has begun developing in Daniels County into southern Saskatchewan as the cold front slowly pushes to the east, so it seems that, as of right now, things are on track still for showers and thunderstorms along the North Dakota border tonight. By the weekend, another trough and associated boundary passage will lend to a return to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds: Southeast winds of 10-20 kts will continue turning to the west-northwest at 10-20 kts as the cold front passes through the region.
227 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A rather nice day for mid July for this part of the country with highs only in the low to mid 80s. We can thank the high pressure that moved into the area last night leaving us with N-NE surface winds. Temperatures won't increase too much, but will get back into the lower 90s, outside of N central Missouri which will stay in the 80s. As the upper level ridge breaks down over the southern Rockies lee-side troughing will develop over the Southern Plains.
We are still stuck sandwiched between a strengthening upper ridge over Western Texas and New Mexico and a weakening upper trough draped over the northeastern US. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the presence of the upper ridge to our west. The good news is that tonights MCS might mix the atmosphere making it a little cooler this evening; however, the added low level moisture will probably bump dewpoints up in the morning and lead to peak solar heating during the morning. Temperatures will quickly rise into the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Heat indexes will range from 104-108 with the highest heat indexes likely over Southeast Mississippi, Mobile and Baldwin counties.
Otherwise, tomorrow should be mostly sunny and dry with high pressure building in from the north.
Light southerly flow this afternoon will begin to slowly erode the drier air as the upper level trough axis swings toward the forecast area. Focus this evening will shift to the west as the trough axis moves into the through the Upstate and into the forecast area overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain on track for the mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Monday: The upper trough will remain over the region Monday. Have to show the highest pops in the east with slight chance to the west. Highs in the mid 90s with lows Monday night in the lower 70s.
This this period of the forecast the long wave trough continues to reside over the central CONUS, flattening the ridge. The resulting zonal flow over the forecast area will allow an upper level short wave trough to move through each afternoon and evening.
High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices continuing across South Florida.
304 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Northwest flow aloft over the region is pushing the trough that generated our stormy weather well to our east. Our next storm generator, a strong trough along the Canadian Pacific coast, is moving east. The high will slide east during the day with return flow developing by evening.
Some cirrus still flowing over the forecast area, with some CU formations over mountain regions associated with the passing upper level trough. High temperatures will be much cooler today, reaching into the mid 80s in the lower elevation areas and into the lower to mid 70s in the higher elevations.
Cold front should move through early and bring in slightly more stable air.
Debated greatly on the decision to go with Excessive Heat Warning vs Heat Advisory for portions of the area as some areas will only be flirting with the higher heat indices.
Dry conditions will continue into at least mid-week with slightly warmer temperatures.
Persistent cloud cover along the northern portion of the CWA has helped to keep temperatures somewhat cooler this afternoon which may help limit stronger storm formation in that area. The trough axis and cold front are expected to push through the area overnight with high pressure gradually building in behind. During the day Monday, high pressure strengthens as upper level ridging moves into the area. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to upper 70s in the higher elevations. Quiet period of weather in the short term characterized by a departing upper level trof, replaced by s/w ridging.
With debris cloudiness hanging around from convection and weak cold front passing through, won't be exactly the classic clear, calm night. GM Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 69 94 69 / 20 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 67 91 69 / 20 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 67 92 68 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 87 63 89 64 / 30 10 0 0 0.
High pressure will then build across the area for much of the work week, with a cold front approaching by the end of the week. We remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms west of the Blue Ridge, with damaging winds the main threat. Notably, the longwave trough axis is still well to the west, so neither CAPE nor shear are especially robust, but both are in play. The trough axis swings across overnight, so it is prudent to maintain a chance of showers all night long. Hi-res models are now keying on activity to our south, and the trough axis is forecast to be to our east by afternoon. With the trough axis past, the remainder of the short term period looks dry and fairly quiet.
240 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A couple weak upper level disturbances will usher in cooler and less humid air through Monday.
Tomorrow will be dry and a bit less breezy than today and even a bit cooler.
Slightly cooler and drier air starting to filter into far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon behind front. The warming trend returns for the remainder of the week as upper ridge begins to build into the southern Plains.
Dry conditions will continue into at least mid-week with sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler, but windy conditions and low relative humidity will bring an increased risk for fire weather concerns.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Subsidence from a stout 500mb ridge across the Desert Southwest will continue to produce hot, humid, and rain-free conditions for the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas in the short-term period. Similarly for tomorrow afternoon, model guidance suggests somewhat drier air will mix down from aloft, more noticeable west of I-69C with dewpoints dipping into the low-mid 50s by mid afternoon.
Northwest flow aloft over the region is pushing the trough that generated our stormy weather well to our east. Our next storm generator, a strong trough along the Canadian Pacific coast, is moving east. The high will slide east during the day with return flow developing by evening.
714 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A benign weather pattern is expected to continue across Southeast TX tonight as the mid to upper level ridge continues to dominate the local weather pattern. Low temperatures tonight should range in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coastal regions. VFR conditions tonight along with fair Wx as high pressure prevails.
Temps over the region were in the 90s across most of the plains with temps near 100 over the lower Ark rvr valley. Tomorrow will once again be quite hot with readings in the 100 degree range across the lower Ark rvr valley.