Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Warm front continues to lift north across the region this afternoon and appears to just north of the I-20 corridor as of 20Z. Unfortunately, the milder temperatures we saw last night are now a thing of the past with warm and humid air back in place due to the warm front passing to our north. On Thursday, the heat and humidity will only continue to build as the upper level ridge to our west inches closer to our region and temperatures climb a bit higher with middle 90s expected Thursday afternoon.
Expect the inverted 500 mb trough axis that helped this conv fire up today to start to weaken later tonight into Thurs which will allow the ridge axis to rebuild over the region dampening the conv chcs. Thus, rain chances should start to trend down in the short term with a weak inverted mid level trough moving west and being absorbed as mid level ridging builds over the area on Thursday and Thursday night.
625 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 The area remains on the northern edge of an upper level ridge with another wave expected to move across tonight.
Otherwise, forecast is on track, with lows hovering in the low to mid 70s. Light and variable winds tonight will become onshore by daybreak as the ridge axis lifts northward.
800 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Cold front has passed through much of the area this evening, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing. The disturbance will also bring a weak cold front across the area late this afternoon with gusty winds. Precipitable water values approaching one inch suggest that these storms could produce a little rainfall, but dry air in the lower levels and appreciable storm movement will limit the rainfall potential from the storms.
1018 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the region over the next several days with gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry weather.
824 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week. The near term period will continue to be dry and quiet with high pressure over the region. Overnight, the center of the high pressure moves east and out to sea. With the center of the high pressure to the east, a ridge moves into the region during the morning hours. As a result, the flow becomes more southerly, bringing warmer air into the region.
A look at mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the axis of the mid-level ridge over the Rocky Mountain front range, with heights building across the Central Plains.
/Issued 325 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ Region remains under weak northwest upper flow between the exiting east coast upper trough and upper ridging over the southern plains. Best chances for any precipitation will be across the far southern and western reaches of the forecast area around the periphery of the ridge where moisture will be at least marginally more favorable. increased southerly flow ahead of the upper trough so likely pops still look reasonable.
721 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will continue to build in from the north through Thursday with below normal temperatures expected.
1018 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will continue to shift south of the area tonight.
Winds have been out of the south/southwest Wednesday afternoon ahead of our next cold front that is currently over north central North Dakota to northeastern Montana. Due to the strong southerly winds, temperatures across the CWA have reached into the lower 80s with dew points in the low 50s. Severe weather is possible this evening as showers and thunderstorms develop along and west of the cold front as it moves into Koochiching county by 00Z. The cold front appears to become stationary over northwestern Wisconsin leading to additional convective development by Thursday afternoon. 14Z along and either side of a cold front. A cold front will be passing through this evening into Thursday morning. After the cold front moves through the winds will switch to the northwest at 5 to 10 knots.
559 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will continue to shift south of the area tonight.
Winds have been out of the south/southwest Wednesday afternoon ahead of our next cold front that is currently over north central North Dakota to northeastern Montana. Due to the strong southerly winds, temperatures across the CWA have reached into the lower 80s with dew points in the low 50s. Severe weather is possible this evening as showers and thunderstorms develop along and west of the cold front as it moves into Koochiching county by 00Z. The cold front appears to become stationary over northwestern Wisconsin leading to additional convective development by Thursday afternoon. A cold front will be pass through this evening near KINL moving southeastward to KHYR by Thursday morning. A cold front will be passing through this evening into Thursday morning. After the cold front moves through the winds will switch to the northwest at 5 to 10 knots.
The disturbance will also bring a weak cold front across the area late this afternoon with gusty winds. Precipitable water values around 3/4 inch suggest that these storms could produce a little rainfall, but dry air in the lower levels and appreciable storm movement will limit the rainfall potential from the storms.
625 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A mixture of boundary layer mixing and advection has raised dewpoints across the area this afternoon, starting the process of moistening the boundary layer as the northwestwardly tilted ridge moves off the east-southeast from the WFO PAH forecast area.
734 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the region over the next several days with gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry weather.
849 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A cold front will continue to shift south of the area tonight.
/issued 254 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ Heat and humidity will return tomorrow as a warm front lifts north from the Gulf Coast late tonight into Thursday morning.
Dry conditions will continue through Thursday with high pressure in control. Daytime highs tomorrow will be five to ten degrees warmer than observed today as the atmosphere warms.
Thursday will be a little bit warmer than today as moisture will start to increase across the area. /issued 614 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ Heat and humidity will return tomorrow as a warm front lifts north from the Gulf Coast late tonight into Thursday morning.
627 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Very warm airmass with upper level high pressure overhead and modest southerly low level flow continuing. /issued 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ Upper level ridging remains squarely in place overhead through this evening which will help temperatures warm to near the century mark. Upper level ridging will begin to flatten tomorrow as a trough moves out of British Columbia and sinks into the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, this won't change sensible weather much across our region as ridging will remain in place and hence temperatures will still warm back up to near the century mark.
As we head into the weekend an Upper level high builds just to the north of the region with an upper low well to the south of us. This blocking pattern will bring near record to record temperatures into the region this weekend.
913 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 A fairly tranquil night across the Tennessee Valley region as high pressure continues to promote a mostly clear sky and dry weather this evening. Lows temperatures are still expected to run a few degrees higher than last night as lows will remain in the lower 60s. There is a weak northwesterly flow trough that will move through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday.
1046 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Fair weather will continue through Thursday as high pressure ridges in from the north.
The offshore trough continues to provide cooler and moister air across our region. The upper low will begin to weaken Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. Another day of cooler, wetter marine air was a welcome The center of the offshore low continues to nudge closer to the coastline today so we'll likely have another round of overnight marine stratus development and coastal drizzle into early Thursday. However, the marine layer will likely start to compress as high pressure over the Pacific NW starts to dominate the synoptic weather pattern this weekend. Another thing to note is that there could be some monsoonal moisture from the desert southwest that wraps around the low and pushes into NorCal.
836 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week. Previous Discussion: The near term period will continue to be dry and quiet with high pressure over the region. Overnight, the center of the high pressure moves east and out to sea. With the center of the high pressure to the east, a ridge moves into the region during the morning hours. As a result, the flow becomes more southerly, bringing warmer air into the region.
Although a few clouds remain on the Plateau, skies should clear soon and clear skies will prevail across the area tonight - leading to another cool night with lows in the low 60s.
517 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Current models show the upper ridge stretching from NM up through ID/MT today. By Thursday, upper flow over the region starts to become more zonal as a strong upper low over the Pacific coast helps to flattens the ridge.
208 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 A cold front will continue to shift south of the area tonight.
1245 AM Update: Ridge of high pressure over the interior Northeast today keeps the skies mostly sunny with low humidity once again. Highs will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday getting into the upper 70s to low 80s.
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Scattered areas of low MVFR cigs have begun to develop early this morning across portions of E TX/WCntrl LA, with this trend expected to continue overnight and eventually affecting much of NE TX into SW AR and portions of extreme SE OK (S of the Ouachita Mtns which are currently seeing stratocu cigs developing in the higher terrain).
414 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Fair weather will continue today as high pressure ridges in from the north.
Warmer, but still near or slightly below normal. Weak upper troughing over the area will lift northeast as broad southwesterly flow begins to setup across much of the southeastern US in response to broad troughing developing over the Rockies and Intermountain West over the next 24 to 36 hours or so.
Otherwise gusty south winds will continue tomorrow with less cumulus around tomorrow afternoon as the upper ridge axis builds overhead. /Issued 1018 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered over swrn KS, with a strong pressure gradient across Oklahoma and wrn AR. High cloudiness was spilling over the top of the ridge, which was centered over swrn OK at 00z, some of which should overspread CWA tonight. Guidance suggests convection in wrn KS stays north of the OK/KS border tonight as center of mid level high pressure translates from swrn OK to ern OK overnight. All in all, southerly wind and some increase in both high and low cloudiness will result in overnight temperatures quite a bit warmer than this morning most areas.
Heights at 500mb remain neutral today as the upper ridge stretches out from northern Mexico into the Mississippi River valley. Surface lee troughing/cyclogenesis will again develop but these surface features will be shifted slightly to the east. The upper high that has been dominating the region will be a nothing but a shadow of its former self as the upper trough progged to push southward from Canada flattens the upper high.
A wide range of temperatures were ongoing overnight, with readings in the 70s over the Osage Plains, to the lower 60s in the eastern Ozarks. Given our sounding from last night, it may be difficult for the MCS to survive the low level inhibition layer. An enhanced risk for severe weather is currently outlined over the northern third of Missouri, with a slight risk near the Highway 54 corridor. It's possible that the outflow along with some cloud cover could create some cooler temperatures over central Missouri today.
138 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the region over the next several days with gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry weather. Current temperatures are in the low 40s to mid 50s.
Upper ridge over the area today will begin to give way to a trough moving down out of Canada Thursday. Not expecting much from these as they have to overcome subsidence from the ridge but airmass is fairly moist with dewpts in the mid 50s to 60s so brief moderate rain is possible.
ridge tops will be around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than valley bottoms and local coulees. GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A ridge over Montana today has allowed mild Pacific air to flow into northeast Montana with temps this afternoon ranging from the mid 30s near Plentywood to the mid 40s from Jordan to Winnett. Winds are expected to drop off this evening and be a bit lighter Sunday ahead of a very weak cold front dropping in from the north.
Dry and cool conditions will prevail through tonight with subfreezing conditions likely once again in the Kern County desert areas.
Not all that impactful if you take into consideration our last 24 hours, but it may keep this area slightly warmer than it would have otherwise gotten. Everybody should be at or just below freezing in any event.
This mixing into the low level jet along with the tightening surface pressure gradient will increase winds to the windy category (20 to 30 mph) across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and adjacent parts of the Rolling Plains and South Plains. A surface lee trough will also visit the region each day making for breezy afternoons.
636 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 Cooler and drier air is settling into the region, with the wind subsiding this evening into the overnight.
715 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 A cold front is exiting KY to the southeast late this afternoon, with the last of its associated showers following close behind.
Warmer weather will continue this weekend with cold overnight low temperatures.
440 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 A cold front is exiting KY to the southeast late this afternoon, with the last of its associated showers following close behind.
The lighter south winds overnight will be replaced by relatively strong south/southwest winds Sunday afternoon in the western half of Oklahoma as a lee trough in Colorado intensifies.
Dry and Warmer Sunday. Winds have gusted upwards of 55MPH is some locations earlier this afternoon, but gusts greater than 45MPH will become more infrequent over the next few hours as the low moves to the NE over potions of Quebec. Tomorrow will begin a warmer regime as westerly WAA over the Plains helps increase heights aloft, placing broad ridging over the CONUS. Temperatures will drop once again overnight, but consistent WAA will keep them above the dew point, bottoming out near the freezing point. An amplified synoptic pattern will emerge by mid-week and as the next mid-upper trough moves northeast. Strengthening southerly flow on the western side of the ridge will advect modest moisture northward into the area.
/issued 341 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021/ After a busy night last night, the cold front has finally moved out of the Mid-South. High pressure will build into the region later tonight and we'll have the return to dry weather. Highs on Sunday will bounce back in the low to mid 50s.
Temperatures across the west will remain in the lower 20s, and a bit lighter winds in northwest MN will allow lows to fall into the upper teens. Under the influence of a building ridge, we will continue to see sunny skies and warming temperatures as warm air advection continues. Despite this, our snowpack will keep things a bit cooler at the surface than expected. Tomorrow will be even warmer than today, with high temperatures above freezing area wide, and close to 40 degrees on the ND/SD border.
Broad upper level ridging will help support a dry forecast through Sunday night.
450 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 A cold front is exiting KY to the southeast late this afternoon, with the last of its associated showers following close behind.
Over the bays winds have already come down over the northern portions of the bays though the lower bays still blowing at 15 to 20 with higher gusts.
341 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 After a busy night last night, the cold front has finally moved out of the Mid-South. High pressure will build into the region later tonight and we'll have the return to dry weather. Highs on Sunday will bounce back in the low to mid 50s.
Expect dry and warmer conditions Sunday as a low level southerly flow returns.
The return of light SE winds by Sun night (as the high shifts east) should help raise moisture levels through early Mon morning but probably not enough for lower CIGS until Mon afternoon. Over the bays winds have already come down over the northern portions of the bays though the lower bays still blowing at 15 to 20 with higher gusts.
Upper level features this afternoon include mid-level height rises as a broad ridge gradually builds over the Northern Plains, while a stream of upper level moisture associated with the polar jet manifested in upper level clouds over much of western North Dakota. At the surface, low pressure over the southern Canadian Prairies and high pressure to the south was responsible for a pressure gradient and breezy westerly winds this afternoon, which should be maintained in some fashion through the night. This westerly flow will allow for relatively warmer morning lows on Sunday, generally in the 20s across the state. As the ridge axis and thermal ridge arrive Sunday, highs well above normal are expected across the region.
A broad upper level ridge remains in place over the northern Plains, and the ridge axis will make its way across the state through the day. This pattern will favor well above normal temperatures for most, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s over the Turtle Mountains to the lower 50s across the southwest. A weak and dry cold front will approach the northwest in the evening and move southeast across the state overnight.
Cooler temperatures for the upcoming work week will bring a return to lowland snow potential. Cooler air associated with the disturbance will also briefly drive snow levels lower with a potential change from rain to snow as low as 2000 feet for a few hours in the morning. Little to no lowland accumulations are anticipated with surface temperatures at or above freezing. Little to no snow accumulation is anticipated with temperatures remaining above freezing.
1037 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 A much quieter afternoon and evening is expected across the area as surface ridging continue to build into the central part of the US. As the ridge finds itself in an odd location, centered over the southern plains the flow into the area is more westerly than northwesterly. A gradual warm up will commence starting on Sunday as surface driving upstream causes winds to respond from the south, which will push some warmer air into the region. Mid level ridging will form in the wake of the departing mid level system, and ahead of the next upstream trough.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating occluding but still deep cyclone over the northern GRT LKS, while ridging was shifting eastward acrs the southern plains and toward the lower/mid MS RVR Valley. But if the sfc winds do decouple more than anticipated, there could be some cooler readings especially north of I-80. looking at the fcst soundings, marginal mixing depth produces highs in the mid to upper 40 north of Hwy 30, to the low to mid 50s in the far southern CWA.
Tranquil weather ongoing across the Tennessee Valley this evening in wake of a strong cold front that moved through the area earlier in the day. Breezy NW/NNW winds continue to advect in a colder, drier air mass as 03z temperatures have dropped into the lower 40s in most spots. Dry weather is expected for the first part of the new week, as high pressure builds over the region from the west. After a chilly start, under sunny skies, temperatures on Sunday will stay on the cool side, warming only into the lower 50s. Another cold night with lows in the lower 30s for Sun night. A bit warmer to start a new work week with highs near 60.
Dry west to northwest and surface ridging are expected.
303 AM EST Sun Dec 12 2021 Strengthening high pressure stretching from Texas to the mid- Atlantic coast, combined with a dry atmosphere, will give us clear skies today and tonight other than possibly a few wisps of cirrus. Mostly zonal upper flow becomes more amplified by mid-week as an upper trough advances east from the West Coast.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: High pressure will build in behind the front currently traversing the region. Upper ridging will build across the Gulf of Mexico and extend into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the early to mid week timeframe.
910 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 Tranquil weather ongoing across the Tennessee Valley this evening in wake of a strong cold front that moved through the area earlier in the day. Breezy NW/NNW winds continue to advect in a colder, drier air mass as 03z temperatures have dropped into the lower 40s in most spots. Dry weather is expected for the first part of the new week, as high pressure builds over the region from the west. After a chilly start, under sunny skies, temperatures on Sunday will stay on the cool side, warming only into the lower 50s. Another cold night with lows in the lower 30s for Sun night. A bit warmer to start a new work week with highs near 60.
Though there are slight differences in timing/placement of surface features, it does appear that upper ridging will be shifting southwestward, centered more over Mexico or the western Gulf.
An exiting cold front lies just to the east of our area, with cooler and drier air filtering in behind it. The partly to mostly cloudy skies currently over most of the area are expected to retreat eastward and give way to mainly clear skies overnight as the front continues its march east and high pressure noses in. A cold front is exiting KY to the southeast late this afternoon, with the last of its associated showers following close behind.
329 AM EST Sun Dec 12 2021 Seasonably cooler today before temperatures trend well above normal through the end of the week.
Strong mid-latitude cyclone centered northeast of Lake Huron will continue to garner attention for the near term. Essentially winds will settle back into 15mph gust to 25mph regime from the southwest, with temperatures crawling up into the lower 40s.
1130 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 Gusty west winds will diminish this evening as the cold front pushes further east.
108 AM EST Sun Dec 12 2021 Skies clear tonight in the wake of the cold front passage.
915 PM MST Sat Dec 11 2021 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central CO with widespread 2-3mb/3hr pressure falls across the northern plains per lower tropospheric warm air advection. Tight pressure gradient over the area creating gusty southwest winds over parts of northeast WY into the higher Black Hills and a few localized places over southern SD. Water vapour had upper ridge building from the Rockies into the northern Plains. Tonight/Sunday, upper ridge shifts eastward as warm air advection continues. Tight pressure gradient remains in place which will support continued gusty southwest winds over parts of northeast WY into the higher Black Hills.
954 PM MST Sat Dec 11 2021 Through Tonight: Expect clear skies in assoc/w height rises and synoptic subsidence in the wake of a progressive upper level trough (already well to the east.
The region is positioned between a large area of high pressure covering the OH/TN valleys and low pressure in central Canada with the gradient between these systems steep enough to power SW gusts near 30 mph by afternoon. High temperature projected to reach above normal values in the lower to mid 40s then feel more like lower 30s into this evening.
1012 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 Skies clear tonight in the wake of the cold front passage.
For today and tonight, surface ridging will build into the southern Appalachians with dry northwest flow aloft.