Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Valley temps well into the 40s and even mid/upper 50s in the lower hells canyon in Idaho.
The rest of the area will likely see some frosty conditions in the morning with lows settling right around freezing.
High pressure over the area right now will slide to the east today, with a dry cold front glancing the northeast portion of the area.
Latest TAFB surface analysis has an approaching cold front over Central Florida currently. Warmer air ahead of the front will keep afternoon highs mainly in the 80s. Models push the cold front into the Florida Keys by Sunday Morning, and followed by colder/drier air advection. The cooler airmass will keep afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s.
Even with temperatures cooler today, the relative humidity will be low enough that there will be near critical fire weather concerns for portions of the area this afternoon, mainly east of Highway 281.
Temperatures range from the low 30s near the Mississippi River to the mid 20s near the Tennessee River. As you move further south, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s everywhere else. A weak and dry cold front will move across the region this morning. Still under the influence of high pressure with plenty of sun for the first half of the day should warm temperatures into the 60s area wide.
440 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 A stagnant, stable, moist boundary layer has resulted in a rare dense fog event for island communities in the Lower and Middle Keys. As high pressure builds across the island chain today and tonight, variable winds will become more steadily north to northeast. This area of high pressure will dictate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys for the rest of the forecast period. With that being said, as the high slides to the east and breezes freshen, boundary layer moistening certainly warrants at least mention of a slight chance of rainfall, especially in the Upper Keys and in the diurnally-favored nocturnal hours.
Warmer air will be advecting into the region through the day along the aforementioned southerly winds. From here, we turn our attention to another cold front for Sunday, along with another chance for snow and blowing snow along strong north winds.
Great Lakes region will be pushing a back door cold front through our area later this morning through the afternoon hours. As typical with these back door surface boundaries, not expecting any actual cooler air behind it, with just a gradual veering of the surface winds. Our warming trend will continue this afternoon as temperatures finally become a little bit warmer than average for this time. Expecting tonights breezy winds to impede any strong radiational cooling at the surface, as tonights low temperatures should stay above freezing (mid to upper 30s).
925 mb temperatures will be closing in on 10 degrees C in south central SD by this evening, so looking at highs in the lower to mid 50s over that area. Winds will remain breezy overnight, with an enhancement along the Buffalo Ridge due to higher elevation and an increasing low level jet. Sunday will be a another very mild day with enhanced mixing in a west/northwesterly flow as low pressure tracks along the U. Went on the warmer side of guidance with highs around 60 through the MO River valley, to near 50 through the Highway 14 corridor. Unfortunately, by late afternoon, temperatures will begin to plunge as the aforementioned low pressure continues to the east, driving a cold front through our area into the evening.
A rather tight pressure gradient develops tonight from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains as low pressure advances east across the northern Plains. Resulting warm-air advection brings a much warmer Sunday despite wind speeds backing off.
501 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 - After warmer temperatures Sunday, colder weather returns for the rest of the week.
509 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure is once again the dominant feature this morning across the heart of Texas, resulting in light winds and cold temperatures. As the day progresses, however, this high pressure will shift eastward and merge with a stronger high over the Mississippi Valley.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop between this high and yet another Clipper low that will reach western Lake Superior by 12z Sun. High temps are expected to rebound above freezing--likely near 40F across forecast area. For instance, given its southern mean low, the GEFS provides near-certain probabilities of subfreezing surface temps as far south as the I-96 corridor at 18z Tue. The EPS, with its northern mean low, suggests that subfreezing surface temps would most likely be confined to our northern counties at that time. Not surprisingly, the deterministic GFS yields accumulating freezing rain across our southern forecast area, while the ECMWF displaces this freezing rain to the northern half of our forecast area.
High pressure building in at the surface to provide mainly northeast winds 10 knots or less with dry conditions through the day.
340 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 Key Points: * Warmer and windier conditions expected Sunday with wind gusts near 35 mph.
(Today) Cold front currently into NE OK and will sweep southward through the morning, however little to no cooling is expected today given full sun and only a glancing influence of the post frontal airmass.
406 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 A weak cold front passing through southwestern Kansas early this morning will stall out later this morning.
Temperatures will be even warmer Sunday with highs in the 70s across the area.
533 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 Key Points: * Warmer and windier conditions expected Sunday with wind gusts near 35 mph.
At the surface, a warm front will drift from the west into the central through the day. Behind the warm front, pressure falls will become more intense and the gradient will tighten. A cold front will swing down from Canada this evening and cross the state from north to south overnight. The cold front continues to swing through early Sunday morning, along with light snow chances. Widespread accumulating snow will develop along and to the north of this low as it marches across portions of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Winds will build in from out of the NW-N in the afternoon as high pressure conditions settle in over the region leading to clearing skies and dry weather. Dry weather, cooler temperatures, and clearing skies will build in over the course of the day as cold air advecting into the region from out of the northwest establishes high pressure conditions for Saturday. High temperatures for today will reach up into the 60s and lower 70s, with warmer temps occuring further to the south.
836 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 Cold temperatures and snow showers are expected today with a passing cold front. Warmer and drier weather returns on Sunday under high pressure. Several snow squall ingredients will be in place, chiefly a linear forcing mechanism with sufficient low-level instability nearing 50 J/kg in the well-mixed layer in the lowest 6kft. Snow totals around an inch or two is forecast along and north of the I-80 corridor and in the ridges. High pressure will build across the area tonight bringing an end to any remaining snow showers. High pressure will be the dominant feature Sunday resulting in dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. Warm advection with the high center east of the region will push temperatures back up into the 40s in general.
The wind shift associated with the leading edge of a weak cold front is clearly visible on the KMLB radar, along with a noted wind shift in mesonets in Brevard County. Much cooler this afternoon from Brevard/Osceola north, with highs in the low 70s, and only upper 60s along the Volusia coast. A tad warmer for the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee County with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A weak cold front crossing the area this morning and afternoon will produce low stratus resulting in IFR, and at times LIFR, conditions. The leading edge of a cold front located just north of Sebastian Inlet this morning is producing light to moderate showers from Brevard County southward.
A weak cold front passing through southwestern Kansas early this morning will stall out later this morning.
This will allow the low level winds to become more E-SE through Sun. This will increase the WAA and the low level dewpoint advection throughout the weekend. This will increase the cld cover over the area both at the low and mid levels.
522 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 (Today) Cold front currently into NE OK and will sweep southward through the morning, however little to no cooling is expected today given full sun and only a glancing influence of the post frontal airmass.
950 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 A dry cold front will move through the area this afternoon.
116 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 A powerful arctic cold front will race southeast from Lake Erie across central Pennsylvania this morning.
For tonight, expect mostly clear skies for most of the night, with light winds and warmer temperatures. A developing lee trough will result in an increase in south winds on Sunday, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. We'll see an increase in some high clouds tomorrow and temperatures will be warmer than today, with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
143 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 It is already much warmer today than it was yesterday with not a lot going on this weekend. High pressure will remain in control through tomorrow with plenty of sunshine for all of your weekend activities.
249 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 High pressure currently located across the central US will move into the Ohio Valley overnight and then offshore the Middle Atlantic during the day on Sunday. PWATs will remain greater than 1" through much of the extended periods, with the highest rainfall expected across portions of north Georgia. A pattern change begins by the end of the work week when models finally bring the cold front through the forecast area.
The west winds will downslope off the higher elevations west of the Pecos River sending highs Sunday into the 70s, above normal for this time of year.
1026 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 High pressure over the area today will bring plenty of sunshine as northerly winds remain elevated. High pressure building in at the surface to provide mainly northeast winds 10 knots or less with dry conditions through the day.
Temps in the low to mid 70s for the rest of this afternoon, and a bit cooler in the upper 60s in coastal Volusia County. Northerly winds advect cooler air into the area, then as winds veer onshore temps moderate along the coast before sunrise. Overnight lows in the upper 40s west of I-4, and in the low to mid 50s elsewhere, except low 60s in Coastal Martin County. High pressure builds across the Southeast U. Highs reach the low to mid 70s, and possibly upper 70s near the Kissimmee River.
Temperatures were adjusted due to obs running slightly warmer than forecasted. The rest of the area will likely see some frosty conditions in the morning with lows settling right around freezing.
1249 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 Cold temperatures and scattered snow showers today will be followed by warmer and drier weather on Sunday under high pressure. Scattered lake-enhanced snow showers will diminish this evening with increasing subsidence as high pressure builds in. High pressure will be the dominant feature Sunday resulting in dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. Warm advection with the high center east of the region will push temperatures back up into the 40s in general.
1250 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 A dry cold front will move through the area this afternoon.
1130 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 Key Points: * Warmer and windier conditions expected Sunday with wind gusts near 35 mph.
Temperatures north of the boundary will be a few degrees cooler than to the south, and this is reflected well in the going forecast.
1024 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 High pressure over the area today will bring plenty of sunshine as northerly remain elevated. High pressure building in at the surface to provide mainly northeast winds 10 knots or less with dry conditions through the day.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak and dry cold front over Northern Alabama/Mississippi into Arkansas and into Oklahoma. Sunny skies prevail across the Mid-South this afternoon despite the weak front with temperatures as of 2 PM CST ranging from the middle 40s near the MO/KY border to the lower to middle 50s along and south of I-40. High pressure will bring precipitation free weather to the Mid- South for tonight and Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 60s.
Models show the upper trough settling further SE across the NW states Sunday as the leading edge of the associated precipitation shield advances into the CNTRL and NE mountains during the afternoon hours and the remainder of SE Idaho overnight.
- After warmer temperatures Sunday, colder weather returns for the rest of the week.
Only feature of interest is a dry cold front that is moving down out of KY and into the TN Valley. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 58 40 61 52 / 0 0 0 60 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 57 34 63 51 / 0 0 0 40 90 Oak Ridge, TN 23 57 34 63 51 / 0 0 0 30 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 54 30 63 48 / 0 0 0 20 80.
Otherwise, it will be dry and warmer today with highs well above normal.
(Tonight) Warmer temperatures are on tap for tonight as southerly winds pick up during the overnight hours as the pressure gradient tightens up across the area.
Cold front will continue to move away to the southeast this afternoon, as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build to the north Tonight, allowing cold advection to flow in from the north. The high will build along the coast of the Carolinas on Sunday. This will strengthen the onshore flow across the area, with an inverted coastal trough developing over the waters. The development of this trough will provide convergence to help produce clouds over the waters, which will move ashore through the day. In general, it will be a warmer day inland on Sunday, due to a combination of the eastern cloud cover, and air passing over cooler waters of the coastal Atlantic. Highs will range from the mid 60s over coastal SE GA, to the lower to mid 70s over inland NE FL.
High pressure building from the west will promote northwest winds around 10 knots over the regional terminals this afternoon and tonight. As high pressure then builds from the northwest and then north of the region late tonight into Sunday morning, winds will shift from the northeast under clear skies. Dry weather, cooler temperatures, and clearing skies will build in over the course of the day as cold air advecting into the region from out of the northwest establishes high pressure conditions for Saturday. High temperatures for today will reach up into the 60s and lower 70s, with warmer temps occuring further to the south.
High pressure was centered over west central Illinois, but the latest run of the HREF was showing this high moving off to the east tonight. Also kept with dry weather going into Sunday night with above freezing lows.
Zonal flow persists over the area through Sunday as upper level ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico slowly builds north towards the area. Tonight is cold once again with lows in the lower to middle 30's for most, with upper 30's to near 40 along the immediate coast. We are a little warmer tomorrow, with highs generally making it into the middle 60's, with perhaps a few upper 60's over inland areas of southeast MS and southwest AL.
Moderate westerly flow aloft over the central and southern Rockies will strengthen a surface lee trough tonight and Sunday. However, the northwest corner will see lower wind speeds during the afternoon as the trough axis develops into this area from the west.
The low-level flow just above the surface then starts to increase out of the south tonight into Sunday. Tonight will not be as cold but the cooler locales should still get down into the 30s.
High pressure over the area today will bring plenty of sunshine as northerly winds remain elevated. High pressure building in at the surface to provide mainly northeast winds 10 knots or less with dry conditions through the day.
1145 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure is once again the dominant feature this morning across the heart of Texas, resulting in light winds and cold temperatures. As the day progresses, however, this high pressure will shift eastward and merge with a stronger high over the Mississippi Valley.
312 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat which quickly moves away. Prior to the trough passage warm advection will help temperatures to surge into the mid 30.
Mostly clear conditions should prevail overnight once the clouds clear and then continue through the weekend as dry high pressure builds into the area. High pressure then continues to ridge across the state and keep conditions dry through the week as moisture increases and temperatures warm into the upper 80s inland. Winds then remain AOB 15kts through the rest of the period with high pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic.
1051 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 The dense fog that persisted along the Lower and Middle Keys this morning has since dissipated. As this occurs, some of the lower cloud cover may return back across the Lower and possibly the Middle Keys. In its wake, high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico will build across the Southeast and then slowly slide offshore of the East Coast. VFR conditions will finally move in this evening as a weak cold front modestly freshens north to northeast breezes.
BMickelson Previous discussion: A brief and significant warm up is expected today as a warm front moves east across the region this morning. Cold front will drop south tonight and Sunday morning with a band of precipitation that will start as light rain in the north this evening and change to snow late tonight.
Intermittent low cloud covered has push through the Lower and Middle Keys today, with another round of cloud cover likely just around the corner. High pressure is spreading in behind it. High pressure will build in behind this front, and winds will increase in response to the tightening gradient.
This will result in much warmer temperatures and increasing dew points for Sunday. Lows tonight will still drop into the middle to upper 20s with clear skies and generally light winds, but highs Sunday will be around 20 degrees warmer than today with readings in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees. Along with our warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, winds will become fairly breezy with speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. The higher end of these winds will be across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. As an upper level trof evolves over the west U.
205 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 A dry cold front will move through the area this afternoon.
/Issued 249 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022/ High pressure currently located across the central US will move into the Ohio Valley overnight and then offshore the Middle Atlantic during the day on Sunday. PWATs will remain greater than 1" through much of the extended periods, with the highest rainfall expected across portions of north Georgia. A pattern change begins by the end of the work week when models finally bring the cold front through the forecast area.
652 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 High pressure center moving from the S Great Lakes region to the Mid-Atlantic tonight has pushed a much drier airmass into the area with a few cirrus clouds for pleasantly cool evening and night. Mostly clear conditions should prevail overnight once the clouds clear and then continue through the weekend as dry high pressure builds into the area. High pressure then continues to ridge across the state and keep conditions dry through the week as moisture increases and temperatures warm into the upper 80s inland. Winds then remain AOB 15kts through the rest of the period with high pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic.
VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle as high pressure dominates the region.
Onshore flow is expected to return tomorrow morning, advecting warmer and a more moist airmass into South Texas. As onshore flow returns, a coastal trough is expected to develop tomorrow afternoon. 5" by the afternoon, which combined with the coastal trough could lead to isolated to scattered showers across the coast and offshore waters tomorrow evening through tomorrow night. As warmer air advects into South Texas, max temperatures tomorrow are expected to climb to near normal. Lows tonight are expected to remain chilly with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. With the southerly flow, low temperatures tomorrow night will be 15-20 degrees warmer than tonight with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
In the wake of a cold front earlier in the week, sfc WNW flow will continue to move into the region, which will keep dry conditions in the short term forecast. Tonight, a high pressure will build from the west and center over MS, which will allow for quiet conditions to continue into the overnight. Tomorrow, the high pressure will begin to shift to the east and restore southerly flow into the region throughout the day. /AJ/ A trough digs in over the desert southwest, setting up southwesterly flow aloft over the region.
Precipitation will arrive later this afternoon and this evening as a broad trough of low pressure moves down the coast of British Columbia, bringing a weak cold front with it from the west. The sudden drop in temperatures with the arctic cold front will create a flash freeze hazard on area roads.
929 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 Skies will trend clear tonight as the colder air gradually erodes through Sunday, with much warmer air building into the region for early this upcoming week.
While these winds will likely remain decoupled from the lower elevations in the CWA, concerned that we could tap into that layer along the Buffalo Ridge, with southwest direction favoring wind enhancement in the downslope areas east of the Ridge. This will give us a good start at our warmer temperatures on Sunday, though potential warming in northern parts of the area will still ultimately depend on timing of an approaching cold front.
In addition warm front moving slowly northwest toward Brownsville and pressures will begin falling there overnight with warm front headed toward SETX Sunday afternoon. Warmer and more humid will be the prevailing conditions in the afternoon. Some patchy light drizzle will be possible late afternoon/evening with a few spotty light showers as the warm front slows.
This feature will continue to dive southward and begin to carve out a trough over the Western CONUS and Intermountain West on Sunday. Out ahead of the trough, southwest flow will strengthen and begin to pump in some moisture across the CWA. Bottom Line Up Front: Major pattern change to colder and snowier conditions this week as a strong arctic cold front drops south.
848 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 A cold front will cross the region today.
528 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 (Tonight) Warmer temperatures are on tap for tonight as southerly winds pick up during the overnight hours as the pressure gradient tightens up across the area.
540 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 Impacts and concerns in the short term deal with another blizzard as a cold front and arctic air bring north winds up to 50mph early Sunday morning. The cold front will push through the area overnight and in its wake bufkit momentum transfer indicating up to 35kts to mix at 925mb down the valley on due north winds. Behind the cold front temps will again drop into the single digits above and below zero increasing the ease of blowing snow and if and where snow fall persists or lingers along with the potential for snow showers to develop within the CAA regime. Later tonight another cold front is expected to bring increasing snow chances to the north, increasing northerly winds and another round of VLIFR conditions due to blowing snow.
With the approaching system, expecting LLWS to develop over the higher terrain sites (HRO, BPK) during the morning, with sustained speeds of 30-40 knots around FL020.