Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high pressure center should be situated near southern Minnesota/northern Iowa by 00Z tonight. We reduced the low temperatures tonight a bit more due to the expected radiational cooling. The extended periods are expected to exhibit a similar large-scale pattern as we have seen for most of this summer so far, with northwest flow prevailing across the Northland in between the mean eastern Canada upper trof and the mean long wave ridge over the interior western United States.
The 8 am analysis showed a deep-layer ridge, AKA the "Bermuda High", extending from the Atlantic into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The higher rain chances will then shift into south GA and AL through mid afternoon.
302 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 An area of high pressure over the Central and Northern Plains will shift southeast overnight and Tuesday, moving into the Iowa/Illinois area by late Tuesday. The high will provide clear skies and light wind speeds tonight for most of the night. Overnight lows should be in the lower 50s. The threat of strong storms looks relatively low, with only about 250 to 750 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, and 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear, and the lack of large-scale forcing from the meager upper trough accompanying the front. Upper level ridging prevails elsewhere.
Temperatures are currently in a range from the mid 50s thru the lower 60s.
242 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 As of early afternoon, the cold front was situated from the Mid Atlantic region southwest through Middle Tennessee to near the Texas Hill Country. The high resolution/convection allowing models have struggled in the current pattern and overall forecast confidence is low.
As the main upper level high pressure system sets up across southern NM, these ridge rollers will move across CO and KS. However with northwesterly flow, additional rainfall with development across the high terrain in NM could reach as far south as Amarillo, including the chance of some thunderstorms toward the latter half of the week and instability increase. Going toward the weekend, some of the models are hinting at a small ridge building over the Rockies.
It will still be a somewhat cooler day, with highs in mid to upper 70s.
600 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A cold front will slip south into the area late tonight through Tuesday and stall over the region. Should see overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility through the short term period as the cold front moves into the area Tuesday morning, and stalls out somewhere across the south-central Midlands and CSRA.
Otherwise high pressure gradually builds in accompanied by a drier airmass.
Greatest moisture depth is located across the Brush Country where proximity of the aforementioned boundary and mid level s/w trough. Cooler airmass from remnant boundary should preclude the northern CWA from reaching Heat Adv levels this afternoon, and as such I have cancelled the Advisory.
410 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Latest upper air analysis revealed a positively tilted trough from west Tennessee to central Texas. As a result, better coverage of convection has shifted close to the trough axis and moisture axis. Weak southwest flow ahead of the upper level trough will steer storms on Tuesday. The trough axis is expected to track east over area through Tuesday.
A Canadian cold front sliding south will be the catalyst for these showers developing, and will also bring western Montana another round of East and Northeast winds starting tonight, through Tuesday morning.
1257 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure over the northern Plains will drift southeast into Iowa by Tuesday morning. As the high continues to build into Iowa tonight, expect drier boundary layer air to push south into our area. Below normal temperatures will continue tonight ranging from the mid 50s closest to the high where lower dew point temperatures will prevail, to the mid 60s over the eastern Ozarks where it will be more moist with some cloud cover potentially lingering.
This will result in cooler than normal temperatures with northeast to easterly winds for the period.
Thereafter, surface ridging will slide south toward the state with dry Canadian air and subsidence.
Still stuck in the southern fringe of a large eastern CONUS long wave trough and, if you like precip and moisture, we're fortunate to have a good feed of moisture to work with as well.
A broken line of showers and some thunder has developed across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb on the lead edge of the 500mb trough axis. This combined with clear skies and light winds will bring a rather unAugust like low in temps, mainly in the low 50s with many outlying sheltered areas dipping into the upper 40s.
Lows tonight will fall into the lower 60s, with upper 50s possible in portions of central Missouri. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
An upper level trough over the region will result in temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages today. A slight warming trend is then expected by midweek as the ridge over the Desert Southwest builds a bit to the northwest.
Combined with the high PWs, showers and some storms will continue into the evening. Warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday, especially east of the Divide, with more sunshine due to surface flow turning more southeasterly. Readings will likely be around 10 degrees warmer than today.
However, proximity to a mid level s/w trough in combination with great moisture depth and some left over instability may allow for additional isolated to scattered showers to develop at times tonight through Tuesday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep the region in a warm air mass through most of the work week. A weak upper level low over northern California will remain fairly stationary for the next few days, bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms to the Cascades during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures may cool down to near normal by the end of the weekend as and a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska approaches the region.
253 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure was located from the northern to central plains at 19Z with while a weak upper trough extended from central Iowa into north central Kansas. The patchy showers and extensive CU field shown on satellite are expected to dissipate quickly during the early evening with the loss of heating with skies becoming mostly clear as high pressure expands eastward. Return flow increases and deepens on Tuesday as the high shifts east with an area of mid level warm advection developing over the western high plains. Showers and thunderstorms are indicated by models to develop in this warm advection pattern over western parts of the region on Tuesday then spread north and east Tuesday night as the low level jet increases Tuesday night.
There is a weak trough that will slide across northern portions of the area late this afternoon into this evening; however, forcing will be weak and moisture is very limited, so the main impact will be a few extra clouds and maybe a some isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Keweenaw Peninsula and near Isle Royale into this evening. Tuesday: Quiet conditions are expected through much of the day ahead of the next approaching weak cold front. The cold front, draped from west to east across Ontario, will sag slowly southward into the far northern portions of the U. High temperatures are expected to be near normal with highs in the low 80s across most of the Upper Peninsula.
434 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure will move east across the area this afternoon.
High pressure across the region this afternoon will slowly propagate east across the Upper Mississippi Valley through Tuesday.
652 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 The region of showers and isolated thunderstorms which have been slowly pushing south across the area are associated with a mid level trough axis. While this trough will only slowly move across Se Mi during the evening, instability is quickly on the wane with the loss of daytime heating. A broken line of showers and some thunder has developed across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb on the lead edge of the 500mb trough axis. This combined with clear skies and light winds will bring a rather unAugust like low in temps, mainly in the low 50s with many outlying sheltered areas dipping into the upper 40s.
High pressure will advance farther south and east into Illinois on Tuesday, providing mostly clear skies after the fog burns off. The center of the high should reach central Illinois by 00z/7pm Tues, providing light and variable winds under a weak pressure gradient. High temps should rise warmer than today, due to nearly full sunshine. In spite of the cooler Canadian high pressure, we should see highs reach the lower 80s in most areas.
These clouds are associated with an upper low over northwestern Nevada. The upper low will dissipate tonight but another weak upper low will form off the northern Calif coast.
326 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 At H5 strong closed low over the Aleutians. sharp ridge all the way into the Yukon. Quasi blocking pattern developing over the west coast. Quasi blocking pattern to the south of Greenland. These features are allowing a broad trough across the Northern CONUS. With energy coming underneath the upper low off the California coast across the central Rockies northeast Colorado and western Kansas will continue to see brunt of systems coming through with southwest Nebraska on the northern edge.
Dry and slightly cooler than normal weather will be in play this week as an upper trough exits to the east and ridging takes over.
Model suggests temperatures at 850mb a few degrees warmer than previous days (around 12-14 C). This is still cooler than normal, but pleasant given afternoon dewpoints in the 50s. Dry weather continues tonight with mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 50s.
118 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail today.
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A mean layered ridge centered southwest of Bermuda stretches west into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures range from the lower 80s in thrice rain-cooled Key West, to the lower 90s in portions of the Middle Keys. Rain has fallen across most areas of the Lower Keys today, missing the Middle and Upper Keys. The mean layer ridge will remain intact across the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Tuesday night.
120 PM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A weak trough near the California coast will maintain a dry southwest flow aloft this week.
No changes other than for observed trends through 14 UTC with high pressure in place. For the rest of today and tonight: high pressure settles in over the state resulting in highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dry conditions.
Upper ridge in broad northwest flow has been building into MN/WI today, resulting in a tranquil day with temperatures about normal, little wind and low dew points. The ridge should exit western WI and southern MN tomorrow morning, with upper heights beginning to lower slightly on Tuesday.
The combination of the upper trough and approaching boundary will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing mainly to our north and moving southward toward the area late in the day. Lows tonight fall into the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
249 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low amplitude upper trough is crossing the eastern half of the CONUS with weak northwest flow aloft over the northern plains. Overall quieter weather is expected Wed-Thu as a weak cold front crosses the region. Upper ridging will be reinforced across the western CONUS by late in the week with stronger cyclonic flow developing across the northern plains.
Any isolated weak convection south/east and cumulus areawide will dissipate with sunset leaving behind generally clear skies and overall tranquil conditions as high pressure builds in. 850 mb temps around 11C (52F) by 12z Tue coupled with weak ridging and winds at/below 3 kts for several hours supports lows near to 3-5 degs below 850 mb temp, or generally mid 50s to upper 40s on range.
1129 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western ND. A brief period of drier weather can be expected early this week, today through Tuesday morning, as high pressure slowly slides southeast through the region. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80, with some 60s across the higher Black Hills. Tuesday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the plains, low to mid 70s across much of the Black Hills.
Clouds will scatter out Tuesday afternoon, as a positively trough exits off to our southeast. High pressure will build in across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, allowing for clearing skies, temperatures dipping down into the 50s, and areas of fog in the valleys.
The weak upper low that has been over northern California will weaken further today. Meanwhile this low will shift northeast towards southwest Idaho late today and this evening. Also updated to increase sky cover due to the high cloudiness over the area and made a few tweaks to high temps.
133 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over most of the U.
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Showers will continue to pull east through today as a low pressure system pushes toward the east coast. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the region through mid week. This should also help keep temps down somewhat so will trend temps down in the near term and go with highs mainly in the low to possibly mid 70s.
655 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 An area of low pressure and frontal boundary remain nearby, but much of the heaviest rain has exited the region. Clouds will scatter out Tuesday afternoon, as a positively trough exits off to our southeast. High pressure will build in across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, allowing for clearing skies, temperatures dipping down into the 50s, and areas of fog in the valleys.
Do expect slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon due to the cloud and rainfall coverage.
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 The pattern aloft continued to feature an active northwest flow regime across the Central Plains with the main upper low pressure systems located in northern CA, Manitoba and Quebec with several subtle waves embedded within the flow. At the surface, a high pressure ridge was building southeast from the Dakotas into northern and eastern Nebraska.
The southerly winds will draw warmer air into the region. 850 hpa temps are a degree or so warmer than today putting most locations near 80 F. However in addition, a broad area of thetae ridging exists with a modest low level jet in central SD, placing our area on the positive advection side of it.
259 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Extensive low cloud cover remains in place across the region in the wake of the low pressure system that moved through earlier. Clouds will also hold temps up a few degrees in the lower to mid 60s. Highs will top out in the lower 80s with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Ample moisture and upslope flow in the lower levels will allow a thick deck of stratus to envelop western Kansas this morning. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the low 70s along the KS/CO border to low 80s across south central Kansas. Lows tonight are anticipated to dip into the lower 60s.
Temperatures today will be considerably cooler owing to the fropa.
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery is showing Tropical Storm Franklin southwest of Cuba moving west towards the Yucatan Peninsula, while the cumulus field over Florida highlights the ridge axis across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. High resolution models continue to forecast that these storms will continue to develop and expand across the forecast area through the rest of the afternoon, with the highest chances over the western portion of the area late this afternoon before storms dissipate after sunset. Tuesday will have a similar setup, with thunderstorms developing over the Florida Peninsula during the early afternoon and expanding in coverage through late afternoon, with the highest storm chances close to the west coast during the late afternoon. Temperatures will remain seasonable, with highs in the low 90s and lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s.
Will continue the chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms into early this evening with the highest chances across Marinette and Oconto Counties.
131 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Scattered rain showers will spread northeast across the area today as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley. The low will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening as high pressure builds East over the forecast area.
Northeast Montana, situated between the persistent western ridge and the eastern trough, will maintain a dry northwest flow aloft tonight. At 00Z this evening there will be an approaching short- wave trough located over central Alberta. The delayed entry of cooler air into the area will result in highs similar to Monday's, which will continue slightly below normal.
/issued 246 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017/ The cold front will hold up INVOF of the e slopes of the mtns today and 85h temps show a well marked distinction from the warm w side vs cool/moist e side. Tue PM showers/storms will be most favored across the far SW-SE CWFA where the lingering instability focus is noted, along with the higher terrain.
Rain chances are mostly isolated this afternoon but increase tonight as an upper low across CA/NV moves slowly east.
Temperatures to the west and east of the valley are a bit cooler and look to be on target. Will continue to go along with the warmer side of guidance for highs and the cooler side guidance for lows as airmass is quite dry.
High pressure continues to hold across the area, which will somewhat limit convection this afternoon, however deep moisture will still translate to scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, shifting towards the coast through the early evening. High pressure will continue to ridge from the Atlantic into the eastern Gulf through the rest of the week, with winds generally no more than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet.
The front is expected to eventually shift SWD heading into Tue as a long wave trof passes SEWD thru the Mid-MS/OH Valley region, and the upper flow bcms more NWLY.
338 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure directly overhead this afternoon will sink to our southeast overnight, and across IA by daybreak Tuesday.
301 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure will build into the region through mid week bringing drier conditions and below normal temperatures. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s across the southeast.
While there could be a couple of very small/light showers that pop up over our southern and eastern areas, most locations should be dry as high pressure slides directly overhead. An area of high pressure building into the region this morning is producing light and variable winds. High temperatures will range in the upper 70s, to the lower 80s. The high pressure will drift southeast of the region later tonight with southerly winds developing over the western Dakotas. A low pressure system approaching the region from the northwest will cause a weak LLJ to develop in eastern SD with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday night.
220 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure will slide just south of the state later today before heading off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight.
A cold front has moved into North Texas and South Arkansas today with deep moisture pooled in south of the boundary and over the local area. An upper level trough is also over central sections of the country with embedded vorts affecting TX and LA.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s tonight which may again lead to fog potential.
Meantime, comes some energy down the base of the mean upper trof, swinging into play for us this pm. Lingering high rh will be tapped in the form of isolated to widely scattered showers/storms, as the trof energy spills into/across the PAH FA. It should quickly diminish with the setting sun as the low level fuel for updrafts is lost and the lower trop northerlies drag drier dew points across the FA.
As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower to middle 70s.
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A cold front approaches from the northwest allowing for the possibility of a few showers this afternoon. Positive tilted trough dropping south through Great Lakes will exit the local area early this evening. Expect any residual showers to end around sunset coincident with trough passage. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temps in the 70s.
206 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Another round of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon/tonight as a frontal boundary has moved to the higher terrain of southwest Texas, then eastward across the southern Permian Basin. Dewpoints are pretty high, along, ahead, and behind the front with widespread low to mid 60s over the higher terrain, and upper 60 to lower 70 over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
The cold front will slip south into the area late tonight through tomorrow and stall over the region. Today, a cold front is positioned west of the forecast area with mostly cloudy skies across the Upstate and warm, moist advection over the Midlands and CSRA. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility through the short term period as the cold front moves into the area Tuesday morning, and stalls out somewhere across the south-central Midlands and CSRA.
Winds will prevail out of the NE, as our area remains between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the NW. High pressure ridge building over the northern High Plains. Have much of today dry, although some sprinkles will be possible out of some of the low clouds expected to persist through the morning. and ridging over the west coast of the country keeps weak northwesterly flow over the Plains and the Rockies.
The airmass could be fairly worked over; although, both the NAM and the GFS slow down the upper level trough to the point it is nearly stationary over the Upper Texas coast tonight and Tuesday. The ECMWF on the other hand is fairly progressive with the trough and shows it moving off of the coast tonight.
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A low pressure will track across the southern Gulf of Maine Tuesday then exit across the maritimes Tuesday night.
MVFR stratus may also affect KABI late tonight behind a weak cold front. /issued 458 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Latest surface analysis shows remnants of a weak cold front across the Concho Valley early this morning. Temperatures expected to be cooler today, with highs mainly in the 80s and lower 90s, which may limit the damaging wind threat. (Tuesday through Monday) A chance of thunderstorms lingers into Tuesday as a weak upper ridge remains to the west across southern New Mexico. A series of weak wave will rotate southward around the east side of the ridge, with showers and storms possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain chances end for most of the area through the end of the work week as the ridge slides eastward into west Texas.
As this occurs, low level winds will become southeast and south with better flow across the higher terrain Tuesday night.
We'll once again be left with convection firing from the high terrain of NM/CO from minor short wave activity and propagating our way off of NW flow for the most part.
207 PM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure stalled over northern California will produce thunderstorms through midweek with heavy rainfall possible.
A upper trough was situated over the northern Great Basin. A cooler, more stable air mass will keep thunderstorm coverage isolated today. Slightly warmer temperatures and south-southeast low-level flow will lead to scattered diurnal thunderstorm coverage Tuesday. Little change seen in the overall weather pattern through the period with the CWA continuing to be affected by upper troughiness across the north-central and northeast part of the CONUS. A mild week is in store with temperatures remaining cooler than seasonal averages. Temperatures will average cooler than normal with higher than average daytime humidities.