Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satellite imagery shows an area of cooler cloud tops over the eastern UP and Keweenaw coincident with generally light radar returns ahead of this wave. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the western U. Troughing remains over the area through 12z Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the northern Rockies 12z Mon which moves into the northern Mississippi River Valley 12z Tue. Troughing remains over the area 12z Wed and then a deep trough moves into the northern and central plains 12z Thu which moves into Ohio Valley 12z Fri. Simultaneously, the winds will be shifting around, becoming VRB overnight with the low practically overhead.
1129 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Temps as of 1 AM have already dropped to freezing or below across the FA with a few sites, Muleshoe and Olton, have been or are in the upper teens. This will keep winds light and, thanks to clearing skies this evening, will allow temps to drop into the teens across much of the Caprock and the low 20s off the Caprock.
250 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Coastal low pressure will track slowly north, up the middle Atlantic and southern New England coast through tonight. Chilly high pressure will build across the region today into Saturday. Central NC will remain under the influence of broad cyclonic flow aloft as the strong mid/upper level low over the Upper MS Valley jogs slowly eastward into the Great Lakes. In it's wake, a weak lee-side trough will linger across western portions of the state.
Current radar presentation appears more impressive than the actual precipitation making it to the ground due to a fairly good amount of drying occurring in the lower levels. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow with the bulk of the region experiencing highs in the 50s.
1240 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A deep upper level low will pass to the north this weekend, which will bring colder air along with gusty winds and mountain snow showers.
This may change soon as KBYX is detecting showers just to the southwest of the Lower Keys moving northeast. From synopsis, Light to gentle variable breezes will shift to the north and northeast this evening as the cold front passes through the Keys.
132 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Coastal low pressure will track slowly north, up the middle Atlantic and southern New England coast through tonight. Chilly high pressure will build across the region today into Saturday. Central NC will remain under the influence of broad cyclonic flow aloft as the strong mid/upper level low over the Upper MS Valley jogs slowly eastward into the Great Lakes. In it's wake, a weak lee-side trough will linger across western portions of the state.
The 12Z XMR sounding shows decent moisture in the mid levels with the lower and upper levels showing significant drier air. Cooler today, with highs in upper 60s to low 70s. North to northwest winds around 15 KT this morning will decrease to around 10 KT this afternoon and to 5-10 KT overnight as high pressure nudges in from the west. Northerly winds behind a cold front may lead to a brief small rise at Astor today, followed by a very slow fall through Minor Flood stage.
A cold front is advancing southward through our region, already through much of the Hill Country and Austin Metro as of 18Z. This should help keep temperatures from dipping below freezing tonight but 33-39 degree lows are expected over the Hill Country/Austin Metro with the low to mid 40s forecast elsewhere.
One such wave and an associated cold front is moving through this afternoon into early this evening with an uptick in snow shower coverage, especially north of US 24 where slightly deeper moisture/lift is expected into portions of the DGZ.
Used an NBM/ECAM/Consshort blend for pops to capture the higher probability of snow showers in a low QPF environment. The pattern in the out periods is fairly progressive, with a few areas of low pressure working through the flow.
Currently, temperatures are on the cooler side as a result of breezy west winds. Obs range from the low 50s to low 60s.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) A cold front has made its way through the region this morning, bringing another shot of cold air. Tonight, high pressure fills in allowing for light winds and clear skies. Brief, weak ridging helps temperatures rebound back into the 50s for the majority of locations Saturday afternoon.
1024 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 Deep upper low continues to support blizzard conds on most of the SD plains this morning. Quiet weather still on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
Some mid-level clouds, along with isolated to widely scattered showers, will move into the area by Saturday morning out ahead of a cold front. /96 (Now through Saturday) A near zonal flow aloft will continue through today as a large closed low pressure system aloft meanders over the midwest. Moving into tonight, the large low pressure system aloft begins to slowly makes it way east across the Great Lakes region through Saturday with a more southwest flow aloft prevailing. On Saturday, a weak reinforcing cold front looks to move across the area with the eastward progression of the system aloft. Lastly, the HIGH rip current risk will expire at 6am CST, with a MODERATE risk continuing through tonight becoming low on Saturday.
KBYX is detecting scattered showers in waters surrounding the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon. A few showers moved across the Lower Keys earlier this afternoon, but the Middle and Upper Keys have remained mostly dry since the morning activity. A few boundaries can be seen on visible satellite mixed in with all of the cloud cover to our north along the cold front.
Regional radar shows widespread light snow over the area on the west and northwest side of the upper low. The upper level trof sags across the area as the arctic airmass settles in late this weekend.
Snow showers continue to circle around the remnants of what weâve been calling the "Blue Blizzard" (for the color of the snow it provided) as the low slowly fills over northern Wisconsin. Steep lapse rates on the northwest side of the low pressure and favorable moisture enhancement trajectories over Lake Superior are creating a good environment for snow squalls across the MN Arrowhead this afternoon. These should continue probably with a decrease overnight as the low slowly shifts eastward.
Afternoon highs will be a few to several degrees below normal for mid-December, ranging from the upper 20s across the Allegheny Plateau to near 40 degrees in the Lower Susq Valley.
A trough that is currently over Colorado will move south and east of our area with a slight ridge building in tomorrow. Across the plains, the snow cover will keep temperatures cooler. A mountain wave will develop across the higher elevations of the foothills tonight with gusty winds possible. This, along with temperatures near freezing, should allow crews to clear roads tomorrow allowing roads to reopen after days of blowing snow.
539 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 The slow-moving, stacked low pressure system continues to meander over the Upper Midwest this afternoon. The cold advection combined with persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures below normal tonight and Saturday with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s and highs in the low to mid 30s.
With heights rising a bit and the coldest air gradually pushing east (along with some snow melt), temps will start to modestly warm up, and expect to see readings on the plains in the lower to mid 40s most of the plains, with the coldest temps continuing where the snow remains on the ground.
529 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A cold front has made its way through the region this morning, bringing another shot of cold air. Tonight, high pressure fills in allowing for light winds and clear skies. Brief, weak ridging helps temperatures rebound back into the 50s for the majority of locations Saturday afternoon.
High pressure across the northern Gulf is responsible for mostly clear skies north of I-4, while to the south a frontal boundary over the FL Straits with overrunning moisture to its north is leading to lingering clouds with a few patches of rain over SWFL. Light winds under cloud free areas overnight will support efficient radiational cooling particularly over the Nature Coast, therefore have adjusted overnight lows a few degrees cooler with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, although a few pockets of mid 30s will be possible. A cold front remains stalled south of the forecast area this afternoon with northerly surface winds as high pressure starts to build in over the southeast. For the weekend, the setup is a bit complex as the boundary lingers south of us and weak high pressure tries to build in to the north.
The upper low that brought widespread weather across the Northern Plains continues to drift eastward over Wisconsin. Skies are beginning to clear across the far west as subsidence intrudes on the backside of the upper low.
346 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 The slow-moving, stacked low pressure system continues to meander over the Upper Midwest this afternoon. The cold advection combined with persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures below normal tonight and Saturday with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s and highs in the low to mid 30s.
Midlevel clouds will increase through Saturday morning which will moderate morning lows a bit, keeping much of the area outside of far north Georgia a few degrees above freezing. Currently, temperatures are on the cooler side as a result of breezy west winds. Obs range from the low 50s to low 60s.
Weak high pressure resides across the region with some mid-level cloudiness south of Orlando through south FL. Weak high pressure will continue to build over northern portions of the Florida peninsula to start off the weekend. The subtropical ridge axis aloft will become more elongated across the region as an upper level trough across the Great Lakes region slowly shifts eastward. At the surface, high pressure across the Florida peninsula early Saturday will begin to shift eastward through the day with moisture expected to increase from the west- southwest ahead of an approaching weak frontal trough.
Tonight temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 30s for inland southeast Georgia, and to the lower to mid 40s for the coast and northeast Florida with mostly clear skies and calm winds.
948 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A large scale upper level low will rotate slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday.
If one takes a closer look they can also see some lingering snow over the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia Range. Given the relatively quiet weather pattern with high pressure dominating mostly clear skies are likely tonight. Therefore, temperatures away from the coast and urban centers will drop to near freezing. There will also be a few interior spots dropping to sub-freezing temperatures. However, the sub-freezing temperatures will not be as widespread as this morning.
Expect for temps to fall into the mid 20s to near 30 overnight, with highs returning to the low 40s tomorrow.
Clouds will break up overnight as high pressure continues to move in. The upper low that brought widespread weather across the Northern Plains continues to drift eastward over Wisconsin. Skies are beginning to clear across the far west as subsidence intrudes on the backside of the upper low.
708 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A large scale upper level low will rotate slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday.
604 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A weak, lee trough will linger over western NC through Saturday.
Northwesterly upper flow will give way to upper ridging tonight. Tonight will also be slightly warmer thanks to southwesterly surface winds with lows in the upper teens to upper 20s area wide.
341 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 An upper level low over the Great Lakes will pass to the north this weekend, bringing colder air along with gusty winds and mountain snow showers to the region.
(Today) Cool and breezy conditions are expected today as broad upper trough swings through the area with WNW winds. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to generally be in the lower to mid 40s.
1117 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery depicts a large upper level low centered over the Great Lakes Region which extends over the northern two thirds of the United States.
Deep upper trough over the eastern Canadian Rockies will shift south with a series of southern periphery impulses undulating the sfc front the next couple days.
1244 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 A large scale upper level low will rotate slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday.
1225 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 A weak, lee trough will linger over western NC through Saturday.
This line has been steadily marching northward and have entered the distant Straits of Florida south and southwest of the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, it would seem that there is some isentropic lift occurring to the north and northwest of the Florida Keys as a stratiform signature has been developing on the KBYX radar as the southwest flow moves over the shallow northeast flow in the lowest one thousand feet.
The aforementioned downsloping will help draw slightly warmer air into western Kansas today, pushing H85 temperatures up near 0C.
230 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 A weak, lee trough will linger over western NC today.
320 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 Weak surface ridging builds in over the weekend and provides seasonably cold temperatures and orographic snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands.
358 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 A weak, lee trough will linger over western NC today.
235 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 A weak, lee trough will linger over western NC today.
307 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 Weak surface ridging builds in over the weekend and provides seasonably cold temperatures and orographic snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands.
Snow showers continue to circle around the remnants of what we've been calling the "Blue Blizzard" (for the color of the snow it provided) as the low slowly fills over northern Wisconsin. Steep lapse rates on the northwest side of the low pressure and favorable moisture enhancement trajectories over Lake Superior are creating a good environment for snow squalls across the MN Arrowhead this afternoon. These should continue probably with a decrease overnight as the low slowly shifts eastward.
1049 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A cold front has made its way through the region this morning, bringing another shot of cold air. Tonight, high pressure fills in allowing for light winds and clear skies. Brief, weak ridging helps temperatures rebound back into the 50s for the majority of locations Saturday afternoon.
912 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery depicts a large upper level low centered over the Great Lakes Region which extends over the northern two thirds of the United States.
110 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 Weak surface ridging builds in over the weekend and provides seasonably cold temperatures and orographic snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands.
248 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 A large upper level low will rotate slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday night.
Best PoP chances should be confined from the I-4 corridor and south where the highest PW values are. Afternoon highs today will top out in the lower to middle 70s. Overnight lows vary widely with temperatures in the lower 40s along the Nature Coast and the lower 60s in SWFL. On Sunday, look for high temperatures to range from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s further south.
For tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures dipping down into the low teens to low 20s. Highs will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Lows Sunday night will be a bit warmer in the upper teens to mid 20s.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) A large upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends southwestward over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This upper trough will move east on Sunday with another upper trough approaching the area from the west.
318 AM PST Sat Dec 17 2022 A weak upper low will bring increasing high clouds today along with slight cooling.
Deep upper trough over the eastern Canadian Rockies will shift south with a series of southern periphery impulses undulating the sfc front the next couple days. First batch of cold air will settle into the region Sunday in the form of a backdoor cold front.
Sub-freezing temperatures are likely in much of the San Joaquin Valley tonight, and Sunday night.
Temperatures are hoovering around 32 with some sub- freezing upper 20s reported in the coldest interior spots in the North Bay and the Central Coast.
Deeper moisture will peel out by Sunday morning, leaving us with a window for freezing drizzle that should be minimally impactful given already existing snow cover.
518 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 Weak surface ridging builds in over the weekend and provides seasonably cold temperatures and orographic snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands.
645 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 A weak, lee trough will linger over western NC today.
A modest warm front is developing across wrn Nebraska this morning and the front should move east today, tonight and Sunday morning.
(Today through Sunday) Relatively benign short term as high pressure reigns over the area. Expecting skies to clear through this afternoon as CWA rounds base of long-wave mid/upper trough, shunting out and reinforcing cooler temps and drier dew points.
Southern Oregon and northern California will be under the influence of a weakening ridge of high pressure. The act of the ridge weakening will switch the east winds to be from the west, especially along the coast range which will deepen the marine layer.
515 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 (Today) Cool and breezy conditions are expected today as broad upper trough swings through the area with WNW winds. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to generally be in the lower to mid 40s.
716 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 Weak surface ridging builds in over the weekend and provides seasonably cold temperatures and orographic snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands.
In the mid to upper levels, the ridge was centered to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands with an extension of this ridge to the west over Cuba. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue through mid morning before activity is expected to wane as the frontal boundary that pushed south of the area yesterday lifts back to the north as a warm front. It will move back to the south and east as a cold front due to an area of low pressure expected to form along this boundary in the central Gulf this afternoon.
Even colder weather is expected this weekend with highs only in the 30s/40s and lows in the low to mid 20s later today through Sunday night.
332 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 A modest warm front is developing across wrn Nebraska this morning and the front should move east today, tonight and Sunday morning.
A s/wv ridge collapses today as yet another, albeit weak, low pressure system makes its way onshore. This low will move into Arizona late Saturday night and into New Mexico late Sunday afternoon. Despite decent mid-level cooling with this low, the very dry air in place over Arizona will limit how much moisture makes it to the ground. Aside from this, we spend the remainder of the forecast period on the eastern side of a high-amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific. Being on the eastern side of the ridge also leaves the door open for cold fronts/northerly gradients, which could hamper any significant warming. But, in general, warmer and quite dry will be the rule after this weekend.
The aforementioned downsloping will help draw slightly warmer air into western Kansas today, pushing H85 temperatures up near 0C. Medium range models continue to show a zonal flow aloft developing across the Western High Plains early in the period Sunday while a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels remains in control in the region.
406 AM PST Sat Dec 17 2022 Storm track looks to remain to our north through the weekend, with high pressure keeping hold over the southwestern US. High pressure, in conjunction with continued snow cover and light winds, will maintain valley inversions and degraded air quality through the weekend.
551 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 (Today and tonight) Fairly tranquil conditions in place over the region early this morning as the persistent Midwest trough that has maintained northerly flow over the region most of this week finally begins to move eastward today.
1140 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) A large upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends southwestward over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This upper trough will move east on Sunday with another upper trough approaching the area from the west.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 27 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 27 39 24 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 27 40 23 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 25 36 21 / 10 10 0 0.
Temperatures will remain well below average, but should be slightly warmer on Sunday.
Clouds will gradually increase Sunday morning, into the early afternoon hours, as winds switch to a more breezy southerly component and bring slightly warmer air and some moisture into West Central Texas.
A west- southwest flow aloft will persist through today as a large low pressure currently located over the border of Wisconsin and the Upper Michigan Peninsula continues it slow progression eastward across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will continue to push east across the area through today. Later this afternoon, clouds will decrease from the northwest to southeast as high pressure builds into the region behind the front with a much drier and cooler airmass filtering into the region. As for temperatures through the period, highs today may be a couple degrees warmer compared to Sunday as the front moves through, but generally expecting highs to range from the low to mid 50s northwest of I-65, to the mid to upper 50s areas southeast today and on Sunday.
324 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 High pressure building from the northwest will keep the area chilly through midweek.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Trough axis associated with strong low over the Great Lakes passed over the region today with next low sitting off the CA coast. This low will open up into a trough as it moves inland passing over AZ into NM Sunday. Highs Sunday will be a bit warmer mainly in the 50s.
(Tonight) The Tennessee Valley sits between a large upper low spinning near the Upper Great Lakes and a cold front pushing southeast across AL/GA/FL. High pressure begins to filter in tonight. Overnight lows bottom out in the low to mid 20s.
1151 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 Weak surface ridging builds in over the weekend and provides seasonably cold temperatures and orographic snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands.
301 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 High pressure building from the northwest will keep the area chilly through midweek.
Finally, the stubborn Great Lakes cyclone had moved far enough away to allow pressure gradients to collapse, and winds were light at all observation sites. Along with the lighter winds, temperatures will be allowed to climb back closer to mid December normals this afternoon, in the lower 40s.
Overnight lows vary widely with temperatures in the lower 40s along the Nature Coast to the lower 60s in SWFL.
919 AM PST Sat Dec 17 2022 A weak low pressure system will bring increasing high clouds today along with slight cooling.
1032 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022 Mid morning temperatures have warmed above freezing across all of the Midsouth. Most of the Midsouth should warm into the middle 40s with northeast Mississippi perhaps into the low 50s.
however highs will only be in the lower to middle 40s today.