Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
344 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 With thermal ridging at h850 centered across southwest North Dakota and some compressional heating/mixing up through 700 MB today see no reason to depart from the hot weather with highs 100 to 103 that has been advertised for the past few days. So see only limited capping to inhibit convective initiation along the cold front as it moves east through the region by late afternoon and evening. Saturday will be cooler especially north central where northerly flow behind the cold front will bring in cooler air.
/issued 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ The synoptic cold front has essentially stalled across northwestern OK early this morning, with an outflow boundary extending from near Enid to Stillwater.
/issued 219 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ An upper level low pressure area just south of the Big Bend will slowly move west toward western Mexico through the weekend. By Friday night through Saturday night the upper level low pressure area is forecast to slowly move west away from the forecast area through the western half of Mexico. This should basically cut off precipitation chances although an isolated storm or two is possible in the higher terrain due to unstable upslope flow continuing.
413 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The threat for showers and storms will continue today with the slow passage of a cold front. Cooler and more comfortable for the weekend. Northwest flow aloft and building high pressure will provide a drier and more comfortable weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. Scattered showers and possibly a few storms will be possible this morning as a cold front crosses this morning.
330 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 More showers and storms in the humid airmass expected ahead of a cold front passing tonight. High pressure will build in for a drier weekend.
645 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front which will pass through during the day and evening today. High pressure builds on Saturday with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
Tomorrow, again expecting afternoon highs to top out in the low 90s with a heat indices hitting the low 100s across much of the region. We could see some lingering showers/storms overnight Friday and into early Saturday as a weak and dying cold front pushes into the region from the north. Temps will also moderate on Saturday thanks to some increased cloud cover and the mid level ridge breaking down.
300 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 More showers and storms in the humid airmass expected ahead of a cold front passing tonight. High pressure will build in for a drier weekend.
1106 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Upper high starting to expand nwd over Wyoming with warm mid level temps and limited convection potential. As the upper high shifts ever so slightly off to the east (more straight to our south), it will allow some limited mainly mid level moisture to rotate/lift nwd into our wrn zones overnight. So idea of wdly sct/sct mtn storms Friday with a few across the lower elevations, especially in and near the foothills and sern zones seems good and no changes made there. Moisture hangs around overnight so there will likely be some showers/slgt chance of thunder over and near the mountains and probably a few weak showers even across the lower elevations at times overnight Friday.
238 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Muggy air will be displaced by a cold front which will pass through during the day and evening on Friday. It will be another muggy night with mins ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower to middle 70s southeast. Sfc cold front nears the nrn tier before sunrise, but takes quite a bit of time to cross the CWA. High pressure is forecast to dominate the region on Saturday with an expected break from pcpn and hier humidities of this week.
A warm front extended from low pressure across Saskatchewan into southeast Montana. High pressure that was centered over central and western North Dakota this morning, will move east into the western Great Lakes by Friday morning with a southerly return flow developing over the forecast area. The return southerly flow will also inhibit the low stratus and fog formation we experienced this morning. Upper level ridging strengthens on Friday with daytime highs from 100 to 105 still likely across much of western and central North Dakota as the thermal ridge develops east with 925mb temperatures of 32-38C advertised.
A mid level ridge aloft at 500 mbs with 594 DM heights will drift from off the SC/GA coast to off the NE FL coast through late afternoon. The surface and low level ridge axis will also remain north of the state with deep layer easterly flow. Mid level drying associated with the mid level ridge will allow PWAT vales to drop to 1. Highs will reach near 90 along the coast to the lower to mid 90s for the interior. The mid level ridge will remain near NE FL through the night with low level flow from the ESE.
1256 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front has slipped just south of the forecast area over the past couple of hours, per surface wind shift and main instability axis, but temperatures and humidity levels are in no hurry to fall off to the north of the boundary. Cold front is edging across the far northern CWA early this afternoon, with dew points down into the upper 60s. The earlier convective line that formed just south of Lawrenceville resulted in briefly cooler conditions, but heat index values mainly in the 100-105 range at this point. However, high pressure building in from the northwest on Friday will result in dry conditions across the area. Much of the weekend will see our area in a northwest flow, as the upper ridge across the western U.
Previous model solutions were more bullish with thunderstorm development and intensity over the weekend but have significantly scaled back the last few runs as the trough and dry southwest flow move into the region more quickly this weekend.
253 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front will move through the area early this morning. Cooler and less humid conditions will follow during the day today. Water vapor imagery depicting upper trough moving through the northern great lakes region. This feature has finally activated quasi- stationary surface boundary and associated frontal wave to move cold front through the area. High pressure centered over MN will build SE into the region and provide cooler and less humid conditions. 850mb thermal trough. and ample low level moisture are expected to generate strato-cu deck from mid morning through early afternoon before drier air and subsidence from building high pressure clears skies by late afternoon.
Model guidance shows convection initiating offshore around 08Z overnight, with the highest chances to the west. The western extent of the Bermuda Ridge will build across our forecast area Friday, extending from the surface to the upper levels. An upper trough will begin to develop across much of the eastern CONUS Saturday and Saturday night, and a weakening surface cold front will stall across north-central GA and AL. While we don't expect any synoptic scale forcing from the trough, the prevailing wind field we be altered in such a way as to increase deep-layer moisture somewhat across our region, and shift the sea breeze circulation so that the rain chances will be near average (30-40%) and fairly evenly distributed across the area.
Based on trends from low level thickness and 850 mbs temps, max temps on Fri should be about 2 degrees or so warmer than today over most locations and another 2 to 4 degrees warmer each day Sat/Sun, although temps on Sun may level off in some locations. Current afternoon temperatures are running a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday's. Widespread triple digit heat will be possible across the Central valley this weekend as an upper level ridge builds westwards across the Four Corners.
344 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Have a broad ridge over the Western U. After this low passes the ridge is expected to once again strengthen across the area. Mainly low pops in the extended will favor the higher elevations.
659 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning as a cold front slowly moves south into the Ohio Valley.
High pressure in place should yield a mostly clear and cool (for mid-July) night. On Friday, this high will continue to drift east, allowing for southerly winds and hot temperatures to make a return to the area. A strong upper ridge will be over the western half of the country when the period begins.
227 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Massive western CONUS ridge will bring hot conditions to the region the next few days. The FA will remain on the edge of the ridge with topping impulses slated to pass through the region, supporting ISOLD-SCT Ts at times in the region. Timing at peak heating will be more than enough to break the cap there and support sct TS along/near the trough from NE WY into NW SD.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Fairly quiet forecast for the short term as drier air moves into the midlevels in the wake of an inverted trough.
433 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 (Today and Tonight) A large upper level low currently centered just west of the Big Bend area will continue to move slowly west today. An area of showers and thunderstorms on the eastern side of this low are affecting Crockett County early this morning, with some eastward development of activity off of the outflow boundary being generated by the storms. However, as the low level jet diminishes, expect these storms to diminish by late morning. Although the upper low will move west today, additional scattered activity may affect mainly Crockett County again this afternoon. No precipitation is expected tonight, and lows should drop into the lower 70s most areas.
More tomorrow, a cooler airmass will advect in from the NE. Tomorrow is shaping to be fairly pleasant and cooler than it has been with widespread 80s. A few 90s will be possible along the lower elevations near the Oklahoma border. Beyond this, the ridge starts to build and the precip chances will lower.
110 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Aviation An area of low pressure located near Detroit will track east tonight and Friday. This will result in a northwest flow of cooler and less humid air into the region. An area of high pressure will track southward from Minnesota to southern Illinois by Saturday evening.
117 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The threat for showers and storms will continue today with the slow passage of a cold front. Cooler and more comfortable for the weekend. Northwest flow aloft and building high pressure will provide a drier and more comfortable weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest.
417 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The only opportunity for moisture looks to come to us this evening into early Saturday with a weak 500mb trough rounding the top of the ridge. With 700mb temperatures only +11 to +12C, convective temperatures are in the low/mid 100s which is achievable. Today will feature high pressure initially overhead with cool surface temperatures. Mixing down from +11C yields dewpoints in the low 50s which is close to current readings. As mentioned above, we will see a front move across the area Saturday which will impact the high temperature forecast. Hottest readings ahead of the front, with mixing at/above 700mb temperatures yields readings in the low 100s.
Temperatures will begin to inch up a bit today as high pressure extends westward and the marine layer is suppressed. Widespread triple digit heat will be possible across the Central Valley this weekend as onshore flow slackens and subsidence increases with the stronger ridge.
425 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning as a cold front slowly moves south into the Ohio Valley.
713 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Another nice day is on tap for the North Country today, with temperatures warmer than yesterday in the mid 70s to low 80s, but there will be a few isolated terrain driven showers possible across the Adirondacks during the afternoon.
918 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper low will spin across southwest Pennsylvania before moving into New England tonight. High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight into Friday, before a pair of disturbances drop southeast through the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night.
1258 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Hydro High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather but clouds and some showers could be moving in this evening along a weak front.
1038 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Another amazingly pleasant June day unfolding across the Mid- State, as high pressure over the Mississippi Valley provides northerly flow and dry dew points in the 50s. Upper trough axis to swing down across the east little later today and that may bring a few showers to the CSV vicinity early.
An area of high pressure aloft was centered over extreme southwest New Mexico, with the ridge axis extending north along the Arizona/New Mexico border and a trough developing along the west coast. The high is expected to slowly transition east today as the trough continues to deepen along the west coast. The flow will turn more southwesterly today as the high shifts east, with the drier air starting to push the deeper moisture eastward.
/issued 415 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: The upper level trough/low that has been slowly moving through the Gulf this week has been absorbed into the larger east coast trough this morning as it moves across North Florida and Georgia. With the system go the best dynamics, the subtropical jet and main trough, off to the northeast away from the area. With the waning deep moisture and effects of the trough lifting away, fewer clouds and more sunshine this morning, we will transition into a more convective pattern. FRIDAY: Frontal boundary stalls out across the Lake Okeechobee region on Friday, with broad troughing continuing aloft across the state.
Temperatures this morning were warming slightly warmer than forecast so have adjusted upward. At the surface an inverted trough continues over northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Also an upper low was located over the Mid Atlantic states and will move very slowly northeast through this evening.
1235 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather but clouds and some showers could be moving in this evening along a weak front.
Winds NW 5-25 kt surface to 6500ft, then NW 15-57 kt into the lower stratosphere. /issued 404 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017/ Upper level trough currently draped across the Appalachian Mountains extends well into the Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough will gradually shift east with high pressure following behind it and passing over the CWA.
1030 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper-level low will provide unsettled afternoon weather for one more day before high pressure builds in on Friday.
946 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Minimal update needed to the forecast today as high pressure ridge axis traverses the area. Winds will turn to the east-southeast in the wake of the ridge axis this evening and overnight. Mid level ridging holds over the area with warm mid level temps.
Slight chances for afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms generally in the vicinity of the Highway 77 corridor. Maximum temperatures in the lower 90s across the Gulf coastal/coastal Bend counties. High temperatures today a will be mainly in the 90s, a bit cooler than yesterday, with similar temperatures on Friday. With the return of onshore flow will expect lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
CAMs show that KAMA will have the highest chance for storms while KDHT and KGUY could miss out as they will be near initiation locations.
1001 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today. Low pressure is then expected to pass east of our region tonight and early Friday, but plenty of shower activity is expected due to an upper level low.
The upper level ridge is moving out over northeast Colorado with warming temperatures and drier conditions. Subsidence under the ridge will suppress most afternoon showers over the plains. May still see a few thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills, due to the stronger heating over the higher terrain. Brief rain and small hail will be possible before the storms move away from the higher terrain and dissipate. Skies have cleared out over the Front Range and adjacent plains while dewpoints remain in the lower 50s. The ridge axis aloft will be moving across Colorado through tonight with a drier and warmer airmass spreading over Colorado. Any storms going this evening will quickly diminish in the evening with the ridge overhead. This will keep temperatures even warmer at the base of the foothills. The upper ridge axis will push into Kansas Friday morning.
859 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
Johns and Flagler county coasts this morning where visible satellite indicated a microscale low pressure center trekking southward down the coastline. As the day progresses anticipate an increasingly more stable airmass and decreasing dynamics as the upper level trough begins to lift NNE of the region and upper level low transitions to the W. coolest near the coast in the low 70s under onshore flow.
Despite this flow, 700mb temps have cooled slightly so maxes today should be similar to or just slightly cooler than values observed yesterday, but still in excess of 15F above seasonal normals. However, this will push a mostly dry cold front into northwest Utah tonight before it weakens early tomorrow morning. However, northern Utah and southwest Wyoming temperatures will cool further, now only about 5F above climo while central and southern Utah remain much warmer with continued gusty southwest winds.
507 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central MN, with a frontal boundary stretching southwest through southern SD into northeastern WY. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far northern MN with an upper ridge over the Rockies, creating northwest flow over the northern high plains. For today, upper ridge will continue to build allowing southerly flow to bring warmer air into the northern plains. Upper ridge becomes centered over the area Friday, with very warm temperatures expected. Winds will turn more south-southwest ahead of the approaching cold front and a dryline that will extend south into far northeast WY and the Black Hills.
High pressure continues to bring the region very pleasant and quiet weather. Mostly clear skies will be around today and tonight with highs back into the lower 80s and overnight lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s. Upper level ridging and height rises will keep the weather quiet and rain free through the weekend.
An upper level trough will move through the area with scattered shower/storms developing later this afternoon.
956 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low into Thursday night. High pressure and warming conditions for the weekend into the beginning of the new work week. Cant be completely ruled out anywhere this morning with upper low across region. Unsettled weather to continue today, as upper low continues to linger across the area. Could be some river valley fog towards morning across the area, depending on how quickly the low and associated cloud cover pulls out of the region. Despite the upper level low moving off to the east and high pressure building, a weak disturbance slides down the backside of the upper low and brings a small chance for precip to the northern counties. After this slides through, high pressure builds strongly for the remainder of the weekend for increasing temperatures.
1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A high pressure ridge axis is keeping the mild weather in place over Central Illinois again today. Mostly sunny skies are expected and highs in the low 80s/high 70s with light and somewhat variable winds. A pleasant day ahead for central and southeast IL as 1019 mb high pressure over lower MI and northern parts of IL/MO settles southward into the mid MS and Ohio valley toward evening. Lows tonight 55-60F with coolest readings near the IN border closer to high pressure ridge and lightest winds. A fair amount of sunshine expected again on Friday with warmer highs in the low to mid 80s with sw flow. Dewpoints remain low in the low to mid 50s on Friday. Lows Friday night in the lower 60s, with areas along the IN border around 60F.
733 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather but clouds and some showers could be moving in this evening along a weak front.
1009 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Weak low pressure along the Carolina coast will continue to move northeast today. Radar still indicating some patchy light showers across the eastern portion of the state from the Pee Dee southward to the Lowcountry. below normal in the low 80s for max temperatures. Strong zonal flow Friday in wake of northeast upper trough.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Upper level ridge will be over Eastern Montana today. Low pressure system moves across Eastern Montana with a warm front. The low moves to the east Friday morning ending the chances for showers. A cold front moves in the afternoon and evening which will be late enough in the day for the eastern half to get hot with highs in the 90s. With the ridge moving to the east on Friday, the flow aloft turns to the SW.
A trough of low pressure will bring windy conditions at times to the mountains and deserts this weekend, and temperatures well below seasonal normals, though fewer clouds will occur near the coast. After the trough moves east, warmer weather will return.
740 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
727 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper low will spin across southwest Pennsylvania before moving into New England tonight. High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight into Friday, before a pair of disturbances drop southeast through the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night.
946 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the forecast area today bringing mostly sunny skies, with warm and relatively less humid conditions. a broad low pressure system was over the eastern United States. A ridge of high pressure was building across the central united states and in our area. we are still on the backside of the large upper level trough mentioned earlier across the eastern US.
828 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper-level low will provide unsettled afternoon weather for one more day before high pressure builds in on Friday.
1101 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Areas of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to move over the region as the front/low pressure lays across the central peninsula this morning. Temperatures will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south and inland. The boundary will gradually lift back to the north over the weekend as high pressure builds over the area, with generally easterly flow developing a sea breeze each afternoon.
619 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The warm up begins today as high pressure that has been in control over the past couple days finally shifts south. Weak afternoon warm air advection and mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. However, the real warm up will be reserved for this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the region beginning Friday.
829 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The passage of a cold front today will bring widespread showers and cooler temperatures to the Inland Northwest.