Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will sweep through Central California today, bringing with it gusty winds and a much cooler air mass. A cold front is moving south across central CA this afternoon. Temperatures much cooler then 24 hours ago. Models prog an upper trough over N CA moving south over central CA on Saturday and onshore trough S CA Saturday night.
/issued 347 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ Surface analysis charts show high pressure over eastern CONUS. Temperatures are above normal as we sit in the low-to-mid 70s. Through the next several days, the pattern will become more meridional as the trough out west deepens and the ridge over the eastern parts of the country builds. With the ridge building over the eastern US, it'll keep the region mostly dry.
Other than a few cirrus spilling over an upper ridge, high pressure will continue to provide a clear and quiet night. Warm conditions will continue over the weekend under southwest flow and lingering high pressure.
307 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2020 A cold front will sweep through Central California today, bringing with it gusty winds and a much cooler air mass. A cold front is moving south across central CA this afternoon. Temperatures much cooler then 24 hours ago. Models prog an upper trough over N CA moving south over central CA on Saturday and onshore trough S CA Saturday night.
/ISSUED 242 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ An upper level low over extreme SE TX tonight will gradually fill over the weekend and get stretched from the NW to the SE. Despite the slightly lower heights associated with the upper low, moisture remains sparse and generally to the E-SE of the center. Abundant sunshine on Saturday should allow temperatures to warm back into the lower 80's. Insulation from the increasing clouds coupled with a light onshore flow will yield warmer overnight low temperatures.
341 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Today and Tomorrow: High pressure located along the east coast and draped across the southeastern portion of the CONUS.
Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system is located near the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. /issued 347 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ Surface analysis charts show high pressure over eastern CONUS. Temperatures are above normal as we sit in the low-to-mid 70s. Through the next several days, the pattern will become more meridional as the trough out west deepens and the ridge over the eastern parts of the country builds. With the ridge building over the eastern US, it'll keep the region mostly dry.
956 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 High pressure will remain the predominant weather system through the weekend. Lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 40s under mainly clear skies and light winds. The overall synoptic pattern remains stable through the period with a broad H5 ridge in place. Lows will be a few degrees warmer Saturday night, with some moisture returning in the mid-levels.
252 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2020 Southwest flow aloft has picked this today as the building trough drops down the West Coast. The main forecast change begins in earnest starting Saturday, as the trough ejects across Utah into western WY. As the trough begins to sweep into the area, the southwesterly flow will begin to have enough instability to start rain showers and higher mountain snow for the western mountains.
213 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 A bit warmer this morning versus yesterday at this time with current readings in the 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, low level moisture will begin increasing today as southeasterly flow develops between an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper ridge over the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures will also be on the way up thanks to the strengthening upper level ridge to our east, with near-record highs in the 70s areawide this afternoon.
A windy/dry pattern will continue today and tonight as a southwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains slowly intensifies downstream of a strong upper level trough edging eastward across the far Desert Southwest. Expect south-southwest winds to become fairly gusty this afternoon as the lee side trough deepens in eastern Colorado in response to the approaching upper level system, in turn tightening the pressure gradient across western Kansas. Strong southerlies will also reinforce the warmer air mass stretched throughout the high plains. Dry conditions continue Sunday as an upper level trough of low pressure inches closer to the Central High Plains.
WV imagery indicates a southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a strong upper level trough of low pressure digging slowly southeast across northern/central California. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored in eastern Colorado. Highs tomorrow will reach into the low 70s. Dry conditions continue Sunday as an upper level trough of low pressure inches closer to the Central High Plains.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tomorrow: High pressure located along the east coast and draped across the southeastern portion of the CONUS.
Model consensus was for slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, although there is very little if any change in 850MB temperatures.
However, this feature will begin to be ingested into the flow of an incoming trough moving eastward over the Plains by late Saturday afternoon/evening. Meanwhile at the surface, the center of high pressure remains parked over Virginia/West Virginia and will persist over these area through much of the weekend. Lows Saturday night into early Sunday will then be a touch warmer (especially over inland areas) due to cloud cover and increased moisture, with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 60s south.
The impressive 588 dam ridge at 500 mb continues strengthening tonight into Sunday as it moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
206 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 A high amplitude wave pattern has a ridge over the Pacific and mountain west while the Plains eastward is in a ridge. High pressure is positioned over the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures have already plunged in clear skies, with morning lows near 40 to the lower 40s expected for most of the area. This system is expected to weaken as it runs into high pressure.
High pressure remains southeast of the region with continued southwest flow over the area. Highs in the low to mid 70s seem to be on track. This will keep it mild once again, with forecast lows in the low to mid 50s.
Latest surface analysis was showing a ridge across far southern Illinois into southeast Missouri with a stationary front over the Upper Midwest. This is in response to a deepening trough over the Intermountain West and strong upper-level jet stream moving around this upper trough into the Plains states. The strong southerly flow should allow temperatures to again climb into the low to mid 70s across the region.
Mixed precipitation on Sunday morning will be messy with freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow. So, ice could result in place not necessarily associated with falling freezing rain, etc.
With an upper level low still spinning just S of the region, expect stratocu to begin gradually shifting westward across N LA/S AR through Saturday morning with MVFR/low VFR cigs likely at most sites during the latter half of the TAF period. Stratocu will gradually lift into a cu field by Saturday afternoon with some spotty light showers possible near our eastern terminals with Gulf moisture and lift increasing around the near-stationary upper low. /issued 1007 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ Much of the region is under clear skies this evening with the exception of our far eastern sections where some stratocumulus continues to lift northward near and east of the upper level low over SW Louisiana.
This will keep the region under mass subsidence tonight, while an approaching deep longwave trough over the Rockies induces stronger low level winds in the boundary layer. Heading into the work week, height falls will commence as a deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS begins to propagate eastward.
Tonight Through Sunday An upper ridge is over the midwest with upper lows near the Gulf coast and west coast. The upper ridge will move to the east this weekend and the weak upper low near the Gulf will continue to weaken. A cold front in the West will move to the High Plains by Sunday morning. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s for the weekend.
Radar is showing numerous fast moving showers in the Florida Straits, with some occasionally strafing the islands, mainly over the lower Keys. As Eta begins the northward march over Cuba and into the Florida Straits, the remnant cut off low in the Gulf loses definition, and Eta will encounter a building ridge over the mid Atlantic states, which should force the storm on a westward track beginning around Sunday afternoon. The interaction with the ridge will also serve to increase and expand the pressure gradient to the north of the circulation center, however it is organized, so some of the strongest winds may occur well north of the storm.
A deepening upper level trough over the Intermountain West directs increasing moisture into the region.
Most locations are running a bit cooler compared to last night at this time, and considering what the lows were from this morning, have adjusted most places down into the mid to upper 30s, with the coldest spots nearing the freezing mark. Ridges will stay up closer to around 50 degrees. Ridging at all levels will dominate our weather through the short term period, with mainly clear skies, light winds, and continued dry air. The mild weather will continue into the beginning of the new work week as ridging remains in place.
1013 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2020 With an upper low pushing over the Pacific Northwest, upper flow is southwesterly over the northern plains, with clouds spreading over the region. At the surface, low pressure over NW SD is resulting in some gusty southwesterly winds across south central SD. Southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm air into the region Saturday, while west coast low pressure system slowly approaches. Initial wave will eject ahead of the main trough and swing through the northern plains Sunday. Much colder air will then move into the area behind the front on Sunday afternoon, and so any precip that wraps around the low into northeastern WY and northwestern SD will be snow.
1230 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2020 High pressure will remain the predominant weather system through the weekend. Lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 40s under mainly clear skies and light winds. The overall synoptic pattern remains stable through the period with a broad H5 ridge in place. Lows will be a few degrees warmer Saturday night, with some moisture returning in the mid-levels.
/ISSUED 242 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ An upper level low over extreme SE TX tonight will gradually fill over the weekend and get stretched from the NW to the SE. Despite the slightly lower heights associated with the upper low, moisture remains sparse and generally to the E-SE of the center. Abundant sunshine on Saturday should allow temperatures to warm back into the lower 80's. Insulation from the increasing clouds coupled with a light onshore flow will yield warmer overnight low temperatures. We will see a general increase in moisture as an upper trough deepens across the western states, with temps remaining above normal.
In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Mid Atlantic states. A trough remains over TX/LA. At the surface, high pressure is over the Southeast with easterly or northeasterly low level flow over the region.
High pressure continues to dominate over South Central Texas this afternoon and will continue into the weekend. The slightly drier flow overnight will mean less cloud cover particularly over the eastern half of the area and low temperatures will be a little cooler than they were this morning. This will keep low temperatures Sunday a bit warmer.
Currently have the trough/cut off low still situated across the Arklatex region, and this is helping to maintain ridging over most of the southeastern US. High pressure near the surface across the Appalachians will help to keep temperatures warm today along with mostly clear skies. Temperatures have been a few degrees cooler across the area early this morning compared to guidance, and in response satellite imagery is showing what looks like light patchy fog already forming across the valley locations of southeast Tennessee. With the mostly clear skies today, and the ridging aloft remaining strong, expect temperatures to climb a few degrees today compared to yesterday, with most of the valley locations expected to climb into the mid 70's.
Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system is located near the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. /issued 347 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ Surface analysis charts show high pressure over eastern CONUS. Temperatures are above normal as we sit in the low-to-mid 70s. Through the next several days, the pattern will become more meridional as the trough out west deepens and the ridge over the eastern parts of the country builds. With the ridge building over the eastern US, it'll keep the region mostly dry. Lows will also rise from the 50s and then into the low- to-mid 60s.
The anomalous upper ridge over the Eastern US along with a digging trough in the West will promote continued southerly flow and summer-like conditions for Nebraska. With the help of sunshine, near record H85 temps, and deep mixing, temperatures soared into the lower/mid 80s across the forecast area today. Little changes tonight as a 50+ kt low level jet develops over the High Plains, accompanied by 17C temps at H85. The ridge holds firm over the East, while the western trough nudges toward the Plains.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. However, a lobe of energy and accompanying deep layer moisture will lift northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and some of the resulting convection may reach our westernmost zones. Deep layer ridge will remain in place along the eastern seaboard through Sunday night, with a relatively tight surface pressure gradient between the high over the Mid-Atlantic and Eta to the south near Cuba.
1238 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2020 Low pressure across eastern Canada passes to the north tonight, while high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states expands northward through the weekend.
Otherwise, for tonight through Saturday night, the large upper level low pressure trough over the western U. With a short wave trough lifting out of the western upper trough Saturday and Saturday night, this front will lift back north as south winds increase as the surface pressure gradient tightens up. These south winds will also be bringing in much higher moisture with dew points expected in the upper 40s to the lower 50s by Sunday morning. With less mixing on Saturday along with the cirrus clouds, highs will be slightly cooler in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
513 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 Continued warm temperatures today as southwesterly flow aloft persists due to an upper level trough moving eastward over the Intermountain West. Maximum speeds in this low level jet may reach up to 60 knots at H85 over eastern Nebraska according to the GFS. Surface wind speeds are enhanced by the low level jet and a surface pressure gradient between a high pressure system in northern New Mexico and a trough extending through the northern and central Plains. Precipitation chances return on Sunday ahead of a Pacific cold front.
Although just west of our CWA, Childress TX is reporting 1/2 mile in fog at the moment, so there is still some fog potential as the low-level moisture advection continues. Winds will be stronger today and tonight as a surface cyclone deepens in the central High Plains as a mid-level trough swings from the southwest U.
A ~1028 mb high pressure remains situated generally near the East Coast and Central Appalachians with its presence extending into the Southeast per mesoanalysis. To our west and southwest, however, remains a weak cut-off low. ) Overall rain activity should move SE to NW, somewhat pivoting around the cut-off low. For tomorrow, we should be 3-5 degrees warmer as a little more sunshine is on hand and no rainfall is expected.
645 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the Carolinas through the weekend with increasing onshore winds bringing a slight chance of showers, particularly on Sunday. Deep high pressure will become stronger to our north over the next 36 hours as Tropical Depression Eta in the Caribbean likely reattains Tropical Storm status. Descending air aloft within the ridge should keep conditions too dry and stable for more than an isolated shower today or tonight. Ridge moves east into the Atlantic, which increases the onshore flow, generally from the SSE. High pressure ridge continues to move eastward, which aids in the moistening of the atmospheric column.
Today Through Sunday Night A weakening closed upper low continues to meander south of AR over SE TX near the LA border. This upper low looks to continue to weaken through tonight. the closed upper low will weaken further and begin to shift east over time. a larger scale upper trough over the the WRN CONUS will be moving closer to AR.
Have added return of low cigs at 08/09z for KHOB/KMAF as they are best prospect for the lower ceilings. WV imagery shows the upper trough now centered over the southern Texas/LA border, while to the west, the trough that was off the PacNW coast 24 hours ago has dug down to the Bay Area. This has dissolved yesterday's skinny ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in SW flow aloft over the area.
512 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 A weak cut-off closed low will continue to slowly progress southward riding underneath a massive eastern conus ridge through the current weekend.
524 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 Presently, a cold front is located mostly west to east along a line from Stanley to Spink county and then to the northeast through Traverse county. The ending result is the northernmost tier or two of counties generally has highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and then areas further south (plus the Coteau) maintain highs in the low to mid 70s. Aberdeen to Sisseton to Mobridge are examples of such locations where higher uncertainty exists today.
338 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 Increased amplification and expansion of a broad upper-level trough across the western CONUS is causing the ridge across the Mid- Mississippi Valley to slide east. A few members of the high-resolution guidance support this scenario, but my confidence is quite low in any development.
and Sunday Record or near-record warm temperatures are expected this weekend as upper level ridging remains firmly in place across the western Great Lakes region.
330 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 Continued warm temperatures today as southwesterly flow aloft persists due to an upper level trough moving eastward over the Intermountain West. Maximum speeds in this low level jet may reach up to 60 knots at H85 over eastern Nebraska according to the GFS. Surface wind speeds are enhanced by the low level jet and a surface pressure gradient between a high pressure system in northern New Mexico and a trough extending through the northern and central Plains. Precipitation chances return on Sunday ahead of a Pacific cold front.
320 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 Presently, a cold front is located mostly west to east along a line from Stanley to Spink county and then to the northeast through Traverse county. The ending result is the northernmost tier or two of counties generally has highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and then areas further south (plus the Coteau) maintain highs in the low to mid 70s. Aberdeen to Sisseton to Mobridge are examples of such locations where higher uncertainty exists today.
Places that see surface temperatures near or below freezing with an elevated warm nose per forecast soundings are at risk for a period of freezing rain Sunday morning especially.
Gusty south winds expected today across northeast Oklahoma with increasing high clouds in association with upper low over east Texas.
A bit warmer this morning versus yesterday at this time with current readings in the 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, low level moisture will begin increasing today as southeasterly flow develops between an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper ridge over the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures will also be on the way up thanks to the strengthening upper level ridge to our east, with near-record highs in the 70s areawide this afternoon.
The cooler temperatures and additional low level moisture will keep much of the area from having the near critical fire weather concerns that there were yesterday. At the same time, a cold front will move into the area overnight.
A high amplitude wave pattern has a ridge over the Pacific and mountain west while the Plains eastward is in a ridge. High pressure is positioned over the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures have already plunged in clear skies, with morning lows near 40 to the lower 40s expected for most of the area. This system is expected to weaken as it runs into high pressure.
/issued 326 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Closed 500 mb low pressure centered over the Texas and Louisiana border will fill throughout the day today and tonight and be replaced by a building 500 mb ridge of high pressure. The position of the low and the building high will result in dry weather across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
/issued 315 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020/ The region will begin to come under the influence of a deep trough digging in the western U. As the trough digs our upper level pattern will shift to the southwest.
An upper low continues to spin over E TX/SW LA today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Closed 500 mb low pressure centered over the Texas and Louisiana border will fill throughout the day today and tonight and be replaced by a building 500 mb ridge of high pressure. The position of the low and the building high will result in dry weather across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
315 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 The region will begin to come under the influence of a deep trough digging in the western U. As the trough digs our upper level pattern will shift to the southwest.
WV imagery shows the upper trough now centered over the southern Texas/LA border, while to the west, the trough that was off the PacNW coast 24 hours ago has dug down to the Bay Area. This has dissolved yesterday's skinny ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in SW flow aloft over the area.
338 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2020 An unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern will continue across Central PA through early in the upcoming week as a large area of high pressure remains anchored over the Middle Atlantic Region.
Presently, a cold front is located mostly west to east along a line from Stanley to Spink county and then to the northeast through Traverse county. The ending result is the northernmost tier or two of counties generally has highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and then areas further south (plus the Coteau) maintain highs in the low to mid 70s. Aberdeen to Sisseton to Mobridge are examples of such locations where higher uncertainty exists today.
Plenty of dry air over the region will maintain clear mostly clear skies with only a few high cirrus clouds rounding the upper ridge through tonight. This impressive high pressure ridge strengthens slightly into Sunday while beginning to slide east into the Atlantic.
Surface winds will quickly increase again after sunrise tomorrow at KLBB and KPVW especially if the lower CIGS stay out of the terminals. /issued 315 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020/ The region will begin to come under the influence of a deep trough digging in the western U. As the trough digs our upper level pattern will shift to the southwest.
Colder air moving in will bring light snow to the lower elevations of the ID Panhandle and Palouse on Sunday morning with dry conditions by the evening hours.