Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Under clear skies and a near calm wind, strong radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to freezing temperatures and areas of frost by morning. A cold one is on tap for tonight, with lows falling into the low 30s for much of the area. Temperatures will fall below freezing for a couple of hours early on Friday, so have continued a freeze warning for areas generally north of the Natchez Trace Corridor. Sunny skies will prevail on Friday under high pressure. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s.
Record low at VCT looks to be in jeopardy tomorrow morning with lows just above freezing. There could be some brief freezing temps in drainage areas as winds go light overnight. North winds will continue to diminish this evening as high pressure settles into the region. Winds will turn to east-southeast on Friday as the high pressure ridge drifts to the east but winds will be light.
905 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A potent cold front will cross the area this evening, bringing locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, along with strong wind gusts. Although the squall line's progress has slowed across eastern PA the last couple of hours, it does still have some eastward push, and we expect it to finally clear the Lower and Middle Susquehanna Valleys by 10-11 pm. Scattered rain and snow showers are still expected in the northern mountains and Allegheny ridges, lasting into Friday morning. The gusty winds will decrease through Friday afternoon as the tight pressure gradient quickly unwinds with an area of high pressure spreading across the northern Appalachians.
Visible satellite imagery and surface obs indicated increasing mid/high clouds spreading northwest to southeast into WY this afternoon ahead of approaching trough. Cold front extended from central ND into central MT. Cold front is progged to dive south through the CWA tonight.
1015 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Drying will occur behind the cold front tonight.
844 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Another very cold night is expected with temps falling into the low to upper 20s by tomorrow morning.
A strong cold front is slowly moving south through the far northeast Gulf right now.
01/00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD thanks to high pressure. Light winds tngt, with light S/SE winds returning on Fri as the ridge shifts EWD.
639 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Deepening trough digging southeast across Montana this afternoon, and will move through the area overnight and early Friday morning. While air mass in place is extremely dry through the lower to mid levels, this will change as cooling occurs through post-frontal location. Temps should drop this evening, especially across northwest Iowa, where it will likely be most noticeable with some leveling to rising values with post frontal mixing as the cold front moves through the area. Band of light snowfall should be diminishing quickly as the trough pushes by early morning, leaving conditions through midday as somewhat breezy and fairly cloudy.
Post cold frontal clouds had lingered across the Mid State into this evening, along with some sprinkles and flurries. A cold front moved through Middle Tn earlier today, with post frontal clouds and gusty winds still impacting the area. Winds will drop off to less than 10KT by 04Z as high pressure begins to move into the area.
Cold front and most of the associated precipitation has moved east of the Tennessee Valley this evening. Freeze warning remains in effect across the area with temperatures still on track to reach below freezing overnight. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 54 34 57 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 53 34 56 32 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 52 32 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 50 31 54 30 / 20 0 0 0 0 NC.
Minor disturbances will overtop the ridge at times and drop through or near to the north of the forecast area. At the surface a persistent high pressure area will settle mainly over the spine of Idaho and provide a weak easterly surface gradient over the forecast area.
433 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Deepening trough digging southeast across Montana this afternoon, and will move through the area overnight and early Friday morning. While air mass in place is extremely dry through the lower to mid levels, this will change as cooling occurs through post-frontal location. Temps should drop this evening, especially across northwest Iowa, where it will likely be most noticeable with some leveling to rising values with post frontal mixing as the cold front moves through the area. Band of light snowfall should be diminishing quickly as the trough pushes by early morning, leaving conditions through midday as somewhat breezy and fairly cloudy.
A s/w trof digging southeast toward the Northern Plains will be the main wx player through the short range (Tonight-Friday night).
756 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Drying will occur behind the cold front tonight.
Cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma 14-16Z and progress to near OKC/SPS toward end of forecast. /issued 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ The weather for this forecast period will be characterized by frequent cold fronts, below average temperatures, and mainly dry conditions. A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma Friday morning and will move across the rest of the area through the day.
A rex block pattern (upper low west of SoCal, upper high west of the Pacific NW) has developed and will likely continue through the end of the week.
Dry weather is expected Friday under building high pressure. The heaviest rain continues to move east of the area with an exiting cold front. Sct showers should continue tonight for areas mainly N of PIT and in the ridges as an upper trough axis crosses. A gradual clearing trend is expected by afternoon under building high pressure.
350 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 High pressure will build across the state during the short term while a broad trough persists aloft. The main concern with this forecast cycle is the expectation of another night of freezing temperatures for a portion of north GA. morning lows for Saturday look borderline freezing for most of the area north of Atlanta to Athens.
This, coupled with clear skies, temperatures have fallen in the lower to mid 40s this Halloween evening across the area. Temperatures in the lower to mid 30s with the calm winds/clear skies will lead to the first significant frost, thus the remainder of the area will continue with the Frost Advisory.
The broad 500mb trough in place across much of the northeastern three-fourths of the continental U.
It will bring somewhat warmer temperatures along with a chance of light rain and light snow.
The maturing low pressure system responsible for our snow last night has pushed off towards the Midwest while much drier and cooler air filters southward over much of the plains region. Skies remain mostly clear overnight but with the cold ridge axis east of the area, overnight lows are a tad warmer with readings around 30 degrees.
Post cold frontal clouds had lingered across the Mid State into this evening, along with some sprinkles and flurries.
1135 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front over western ND into southern MT, moving slowly southward. For Friday, gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the cold front during the morning and persist into the afternoon as colder air allows for good boundary layer mixing during the late morning and afternoon. A weak cold front will cross the area tonight, with breezy NW winds redeveloping behind the front late tonight. Most of these locations will receive 1 to 4 inches of snow, the higher amounts across higher terrain. Warmer, more seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along with dry weather.
354 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Currently, a strong upper low continues to lift into the New England states with broad cyclonic flow pattern stretched across the rest of the CONUS.
Cold front currently into NW KS will move into NE OK by late afternoon and pass through the forecast area tonight. Only slightly cooler temps expected on Saturday behind the front.
Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than what we're seeing this morning given a much warmer starting point, but highs tomorrow should be back into the 40s across the area. The frontal passages should be dry until deeper moisture is able to build into the region by mid week as high pressure finally moves off to our east. The combination of enhanced moisture and lift along any mid to late week cold front will likely generate some precipitation, though guidance differences are great enough that it's difficult to know when this will occur. A cold front will move south across the area Friday evening and early Saturday morning shifting the winds to the northwest.
Expect cold but mostly dry weather this weekend under the influence of high pressure.
359 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 As of this writing, the surface freezing line extends from west to east across central Louisiana making the freeze warning issued yesterday afternoon look like a good call. On the other side of the spectrum, some areas along the I-10 corridor to the coast are still observing winds between 5 and 10 MPH which is providing enough mixing to keep temperatures in the lower 40s. High pressure nearly overhead will keep winds very light out of the northeast while extremely dry air aloft will keep skies clear. This will likely keep overnight lows tonight a few degrees warmer although some patchy frost will still be possible across parts of central Louisiana and points north.
312 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Warmer and continued sunny today with highs in the 50s. A cold front moves through tonight, but will not be accompanied by precipitation. This will lead to a cooler day Sat with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 and breezy northwest winds. High pressure will drift south of the area, with winds swinging around to a more southerly direction tonight and Friday. by Friday night a dry cold front will push through the region with winds switching around to the west northwest during the mid to late evening hours.
304 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 An upper level trough will move through the area today, which will bring warmer conditions with decent mixing. With the passage of this trough and the decent mixing will come increased northwest winds, but not too overly breezy. Expecting lows in the upper 20s, possibly a touch cooler in south central SD where winds could be lighter.
Otherwise, the other item of interest is the cold front coming through Friday morning as the wind speeds increase and become northerly around 20 knots gusting to 30 knots at times. A cold front will switch winds around to the north mainly between 11z and 15z with gusts around 25 to 30 knots through the afternoon. A brief period of low clouds or even shallow fog can't completely be ruled out late tonight and just as the cold front moves through. A cold front will blast through tomorrow morning and winds will pick up out of the north with gusts to 35 mph possible.
Temperatures across much of the forecast area are above freezing and a lake-enhanced stratus deck should persist into the morning which will prevent formation of black ice.
The cold front has moved through all but our far southeastern counties as of 230 AM and cold air advection will be ongoing throughout the day. Agree with previous shift that blends seem too high for temps today, so kept highs in the low to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow aloft behind the departing trough tonight into Saturday will slowly begin to dry things out as the upper trough pulls further away from the area.
High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the help of southerly flow and plenty of sunshine. The return of southerly flow is forecast to be short-lived as a dry cold front is expected to push across the area late tonight into Saturday morning.
139 AM MDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Anchored western NOAM ridge with associated mean central NOAM troughing will continue in the period, supporting continued local active NW flow.
/Issued 844 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ Another very cold night is expected with temps falling into the low to upper 20s by tomorrow morning.
We continue to watch the progress of a cold front, which seems to be slowing down slightly, that will have gusty northerly winds with it. Southwest wind around 10-15 mph may make it feel a bit cooler for folks heading out to trick-or-treat. Another cold front is expected to arrive mid-day Friday into the region which will push south rapidly and into the Permian Basin before sunset.
We're generally going on the lowest side of available guidance, but am a touch concerned that wet grounds across the region (1-4" in the freeze warning area in the past week) could be a limiting factor for widespread temps at or below 32F.
The next cold front will come through dry and temperatures will turn colder for Saturday with highs only in the 40s. A cold front will move south across the area Friday evening and early Saturday morning shifting the winds to the northwest.
415 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 We are currently tracking a cold front that has pushed through the Nature Coast and is just starting to work its way through Tampa. The cold air is filling in behind the front with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60's in Gainesville and Ocala.
234 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 High pressure centered south of the PAH forecast area will drift northeast today. Models bring a weak cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late tonight into Saturday morning.
North winds across the area have continued to weaken under high pressure. Winds will shift to the east-southeast Friday as the high pressure drifts to the east, but winds will remain light through the forecast period. Record low at VCT looks to be in jeopardy tomorrow morning with lows just above freezing. There could be some brief freezing temps in drainage areas as winds go light overnight. North winds will continue to diminish this evening as high pressure settles into the region. Winds will turn to east-southeast on Friday as the high pressure ridge drifts to the east but winds will be light.
A cold front will come down into the Big Country between 00Z and 03Z, then into the Concho Valley and Heartland between 03Z and 06Z. /issued 330 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ (Tonight and Friday) Temperatures below freezing again look likely overnight tonight. Since freezing temperatures developed, across all of our West Central Texas counties, we won't issue another freeze warning for tonight.
401 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Wind gusts should gradually decrease throughout the day as a low pressure system moves northeast. Quieter weather will prevail this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. With a strong low pressure system jetting to the northeast and high pressure building over the Ohio River Valley, wind gusts have improved a great deal. A gradual clearing trend from the southwest is expected by early afternoon under building high pressure. Seasonably cool conditions are expected to be reinforced on Saturday with the encroachment of another cold front.
334 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Today-tonight: Cold front should sweep across most of the forecast area during the day with little fanfare.
VFR conditions with main impact being wind shift associated with incoming cold front. Cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma 14-16Z and progress to near OKC/SPS toward end of forecast. /issued 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ The weather for this forecast period will be characterized by frequent cold fronts, below average temperatures, and mainly dry conditions. A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma Friday morning and will move across the rest of the area through the day.
/issued 802 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ Regional radars and GOES satellite imagery are showing bands of clouds and rain pushing southeast into the Nature Coast and adjacent Gulf waters along a cold front boundary, which are forecast to gradually work south through the area through the early morning. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with cooler and breezy conditions expected on Friday, and no other changes are planned for the evening update. Winds and seas will increase overnight behind a cold front with advisory to cautionary levels conditions developing, then gradually improving on Friday as winds turn to northeasterly.
/Updated at 0220 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ The cold front exited Central Alabama around 18Z, and only some light showers remain east of Interstate 65.
Much of the CONUS is under large scale troughing in the upper levels. An upper level low is also noted over the Pacific just southwest of California. At the surface is where we will find our most noteworthy item for the short term, and that is the cold front expected to blast through later today.
246 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 6Z surface data has a cold front running from northern Minnesota into southern South Dakota. At this point, these should be very light qpf systems but as we fluctuate above and below freezing, there could be some hazards for travel if light freezing rain or snow results.
High pressure will drift east today returning onshore flow by midday today. As the reinforcing ridge moves over the area Saturday, winds will again shift to the north. Temperatures will again warm into the mid 60s to the low 70s across the region.
The base of a low amplitude trough aloft will move through the forecast area throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front has already progressed through, with cold air advection and light precipitation along and behind the frontal boundary. Widespread cloud cover is helping keep current temperatures in the low to mid 30s, but that cloud cover, combined with cold air advection, will also limit daytime highs today to the upper 30s.
1132 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Upper level trough dropping through MT/WY will clip by northeast Colorado tonight sending a cold front through the southeast plains. With winds increasing across the plains, temperatures should be warmer than past few nights with lows in the teens. The cold front will temper warming across the plains for Friday with highs topping out in the 30s to mid 40s. As low level flow shifts around from the east some patchy low clouds and isolated snow showers will be possible along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains towards afternoon as trailing energy within the upper trof moves across. a cold front will have pushed south during the late afternoon hours with weak easterly upslopes along the lee slopes of the Eastern Mountains.
300 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A broad mid-level trof will generally remain east of the MS River through at least Tue placing dry nw flow aloft across W TX/ SE NM. A weak front could edge/backdoor into the far e/ne CWFA Tue? A mid-level low is forecast to develop INVOF srn CA Wed, but there is model disagreement as to whether it will move into the area? However there is agreement that with the mid-level trof still w on Wed that a 60-70kt 3h jet overhead will be able to make use of the low-level mstr that will have returned. A cold front could provide focus for continuation of SHRA/TSRA Wed night across PB/SE NM-Thur Trans Pecos.
The first freeze of the season is being felt for locations generally along and north of the Highway 82 corridor, with several sites at or below freezing. Temperatures should rebound decently today under full sunshine with highs expected to reach into the lower 50s north to the mid and some upper 50s along and south of I- 20. Lows may not drop quite to freezing but it will be close in some locations, particularly in the northeast part of the forecast area. As an upper trough swings across the MS River Valley on Saturday, a dry, reinforcing cold front will progress through the ArkLaMiss.
144 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A potent cold front will cross the area this evening, bringing locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, along with strong wind gusts. Although the squall line's progress has slowed across eastern PA the last couple of hours, it does still have some eastward push, and we expect it to finally clear the Lower and Middle Susquehanna Valleys by 10-11 pm. Scattered rain and snow showers are still expected in the northern mountains and Allegheny ridges, lasting into Friday morning. The gusty winds will decrease through Friday afternoon as the tight pressure gradient quickly unwinds with an area of high pressure spreading across the northern Appalachians.
1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Deepening trough digging southeast across Montana this afternoon, and will move through the area overnight and early Friday morning. While air mass in place is extremely dry through the lower to mid levels, this will change as cooling occurs through post-frontal location. Temps should drop this evening, especially across northwest Iowa, where it will likely be most noticeable with some leveling to rising values with post frontal mixing as the cold front moves through the area. Band of light snowfall should be diminishing quickly as the trough pushes by early morning, leaving conditions through midday as somewhat breezy and fairly cloudy. The ridge moves eastward with initiation of warming through the day Saturday as flow turns from northwest and west to southwest.
222 AM CDT Fri NOV 1 2019 GOES water vapor imagery early this morning showing a mid-level trough digging southeast through the Dakotas. This was pushing a surface cold front through central MN/western IA. The cold front will swing east through the area today with increasing low level lapse rates in daytime heating. Mid-level trough/cyclonic flow moving through tonight into Saturday morning expected to shake out a few snow showers. The trough departs east Saturday afternoon with a ridge of high pressure building in from the Plains. Ridge of high pressure moves overhead Saturday night but cloud cover ahead of next system dropping into the Northern Plains will send more clouds into the area.
Winds have become light and variable as the surface anticyclone noses into the area from the southwest with clear skies and dewpoints mainly in the upper 20s. Temperatures are only forecast to warm into the lower 50s this afternoon, but we'll experience full insolation and light winds. Freezing temperatures are anticipated again tonight in some areas, mainly across portions of west TN and north MS. The trough currently moving southeast across the Northern Rockies will approach the Great Lakes late tonight. This wave will bring a reinforcing cold front down on Saturday, but we really don't anticipate much of a cool-down.
Soundings indicate most of the precipitation will fall out of a mid cloud then as the lower levels saturate change to more of a light rain.
Lows tonight will range between the low 20s and low 30s, with highs on Friday in the low to mid 40s.
541 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 An upper level trough will move through the area today, which will bring warmer conditions with decent mixing. With the passage of this trough and the decent mixing will come increased northwest winds, but not too overly breezy. Expecting lows in the upper 20s, possibly a touch cooler in south central SD where winds could be lighter.
At the surface, a cold front was located across eastern Wyoming and will move south and east over the next few hours. High pressure will begin to strengthen late tonight through early Saturday. No significant weather is otherwise expected for Saturday with mild temperatures and some gusty winds as high pressure remains in place.
525 AM MDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Anchored western NOAM ridge with associated mean central NOAM troughing will continue in the period, supporting continued local active NW flow.
Afternoon temps will rebound into the 50s and even upper 60s across western north TX within prefrontal trough. More freezing temps can be expected under this high. This high will linger Sat and even with clear skies high temps will likely remain around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
This will be the story for the next several days as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature over the Southwest. Expect warmer afternoons through Saturday with continued very dry conditions.