Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low centered near KSPS will accelerate NE this evening, with additional showers expanding across the area into early tonight, in addition to some wrap-around light rain that could persist near the OK/KS border for a time. A lightning strike or two remains possible near the low through the evening, but probability looks too low to mention at this time.
1149 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northwest North Dakota into central Montana. Cold front continues to slide southward today, reaching northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming early this morning then moving through south central SoutH Dakota by early afternoon. With upper trof swinging through the area this afternoon/evening, forcing/marginal moisture may bring some light precipitation to northeast Wyoming/Black Hills/southwest South Dakota.
246 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 Low pressure moves from Texas to the Ohio Valley tonight through Sunday, pushing a front across Sunday. High pressure builds in early this week before another storm system impacts us midweek. A robust low level jet near 50-60 kts will also be rounding the SE side of the low mainly in the morning and some increased gradient south to SW winds can be expected especially in the higher elevations.
However a cold front also approaching overnight may limit the amount and duration of fog.
1159 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (Today and tonight) Potent upper level low centered near Pecos at 08z maintains an impressive satellite appearance with broad upper diffluence visible across most of the Big Country into the South Plains region early this morning. The low has now begun to accelerate ENE-ward, with the dry slot observed pivoting back over New Mexico as renewed midlevel moisture surges back into the region from the southeast. Surface temperatures remain above freezing across the majority of the forecast area, with only a few sites across the SW South Plains observed reaching or falling just below 0C overnight. The upper low will accelerate northeastward this afternoon, with precip rapidly ending west of I-27 by mid-afternoon.
The overnight temperatures are expected to drop into the high teens/low twenties. North Central Minnesota may have some lingering clouds allowing them to stay a little bit warmer over night.
This activity of numerous rain showers will migrate northward into southern/eastern Kansas and slowly pivot counter-clockwise around the upper low through the night.
After a mild day today, the next cold front is set to move into the region beginning tonight. The HREF has an 80% probability of greater than 1 inch snow rates under portions of the cold front, including over Lookout Pass Sunday morning.
A cold front ahead of this wave will move through NE Montana before sunrise this morning. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler for highs today. Then, an upper low/trough moves into the area Sunday Night with a cold front.
Frost and freezing temperatures become more likely for inland areas towards mid-week. Skies will remain clear with dry air in the mid-levels behind a weak trough that moved through this morning.
1137 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Surface cold front has pushed off the coast this morning with strong W-NW winds in its wake.
Upper low currently spinning over the Red River Valley to move into the Ohio River Valley late tonight into Sunday with Gulf Coast upper support lifting N of the area nudging weakening frontal boundary that is expected to sag into the area Sunday. Meanwhile tonight the area will remain in the warm sector of the system with high dewpoint airmass blanketed over the FL Peninsula and cooler E Gulf waters. However a cold front also approaching overnight may limit the amount and duration of fog.
545 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Much quieter weather expected tonight and tomorrow, with cooler temperatures overnight. As the upper low continues to move eastward this afternoon, skies have been clearing from west to east. lower 30s in the low- lying areas.
Patchy freezing fog may develop in spots during the evening and linger during the morning hours, Sunday.
538 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Rain is spreading across the area from southwest to northeast ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Most of our rain should move off to the northeast by mid morning Sunday, and we'll see a few dry hours followed by scattered light showers swinging around the backside of the low. Upper flow quickly becomes zonal behind the low, so temperatures will remain fairly stable.
As the broad trough slowly dives southeast along the west coast, flow off the Pacific will be enough to bring moisture east across the western mountains.
212 PM PST Sat Nov 26 2022 Pattern change to cooler weather starts Sunday.
Southeast winds will veer southwest, and record high temperatures will be possible ahead of a weak cold front tomorrow. Southeast winds will veer southwest ahead of a weak cold front approaching the area. Veering winds around 4 kts become SW tomorrow, increasing to around 12 kt (G18 kt) ahead of a late afternoon cold front passage. VCSH around 21Z across the interior and DAB as the cold front begins to move through ECFL.
The upper level cyclone is currently located over northern Texas, with a noticeable dry slot and minima of precipitation entering into southeastern Oklahoma. Rainfall will continue rotating around this cyclone as it continues moving to the north and east, with southeastern Oklahoma likely seeing only a little more precipitation for the remainder of the event. Skies overnight will generally clear from south to north with the exit of the upper level cyclone.
(This evening through Sunday night) Taking a look at the ongoing convective situation, a warm front continues to lift northward over the Lake and now across portions of the northshore. Also, where the modest updrafts intersect the warm frontal boundary or south where mini supercells become more rooted into the boundary layer, there could be experience a quick spin up tornado or two.
breezy north winds are expected for much of the night in wake of a cold frontal passage. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 20s to around 30.
Key Messages: * Cold frontal passage this evening will make for a much cooler day on Sunday.
407 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Key Messages: * Cold frontal passage this evening will make for a much cooler day on Sunday.
At the surface, cold frontal boundary has shifted well south of the forecast area, with weak high pressure moving into Montana. Upper trof shifts east of the area overnight as light precipitation slides southeast across portions of Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota.
There is a little moisture in the lowest few kilometers, but abundant dry air above. Overnight, winds will veer a few degrees more to the southeast as the ridge off the mid Atlantic coast continues to progress eastward in response to progressive flow aloft. By the afternoon, the wind field will collapse and become light and variable as the ridge to our east is pushed farther eastward.
(Tonight) A deepening upper-level low pressure system will pivot from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley this evening and overnight, bringing widespread (80-100%) rain showers and some isolated (20%) thunderstorms (thanks to some very limited, elevated instability).
Another batch of lighter showers continues to push to the northeast across southeast Oklahoma in response to the movement of the upper level low center.
353 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2022 Pleasant weather conditions will continue across the region through the rest of the holiday weekend under weak high pressure.
651 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 1022 mb high pressure over eastern North Carolina will shift eastward tonight as 1002 mb low pressure over Arkansas lifts northeastward from the southern plains and deepens about 10 mb overnight. Quiet weather continues in the near term with high pressure sliding eastward this evening. Strong closed low in the southern plains will eject northeastward and become positively tilted with time as it makes it's approach on Sunday. 20 inches, which is anomalously high for the region in late November, will result in a period of efficient precipitation, especially closer to the low itself in Ohio.
527 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (Tonight) A deepening upper-level low pressure system will pivot from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley this evening and overnight, bringing widespread (80-100%) rain showers and some isolated (20%) thunderstorms (thanks to some very limited, elevated instability).
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Rain is spreading across the area from southwest to northeast ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Most of our rain should move off to the northeast by mid morning Sunday, and we'll see a few dry hours followed by scattered light showers swinging around the backside of the low. Upper flow quickly becomes zonal behind the low, so temperatures will remain fairly stable.
910 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 00Z upper air plots/GOES-16 satellite trends depict an upper level low over the Red River Valley of Eastern Oklahoma and Northeast Texas.
There will be a better chance for marine clouds and patchy fog on Sunday night, as a trough deepens over the West.
Temperatures may approach record highs this afternoon for some locations, with highs in the upper 80s and heat indices measuring in the lower 90s.
935 PM PST Sat Nov 26 2022 Motorists will encounter snow in the mountains this evening and a mix of rain and snow in the lowlands. RJ 06Z TAFS: A cold front will bring wind and a little precipitation to the area tonight and Sunday.
An expanding surface to 850 mb ridge axis will allow low level flow to maintain a dominant northerly component, and this combined with continued suppressed layer thicknesses will keep temperatures on the cool side today, though still 5-10 degrees warmer than observed yesterday.
1022 mb high pressure over eastern North Carolina will shift eastward tonight as 1002 mb low pressure over Arkansas lifts northeastward from the southern plains and deepens about 10 mb overnight. Quiet weather continues for the first half of the near term with high pressure sliding eastward early this morning. Strong closed low in the southern plains will eject northeastward and become positively tilted with time as it makes it's approach on Sunday. 20 inches, which is anomalously high for the region in late November, will result in a period of efficient precipitation, especially closer to the low itself in Ohio.
1005 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2022 Pleasant weather conditions will continue across the region through the rest of the holiday weekend under weak high pressure.
A cold front will approach the northern forecast area this morning with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
1153 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 00Z upper air plots/GOES-16 satellite trends depict an upper level low over the Red River Valley of Eastern Oklahoma and Northeast Texas.
1048 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Much quieter weather expected tonight and tomorrow, with cooler temperatures overnight. As the upper low continues to move eastward this afternoon, skies have been clearing from west to east. lower 30s in the low- lying areas.
246 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Slow moving mid to upper level low continues to spin over the Ozarks early this morning, with deformation zone rain moving slowly across eastern KS early this morning. Expect this system to be a "quick hitter", as the upper low pulls east of the area later this morning, with rain ending from west to east as the morning progresses.
Transient mid level ridging will move across the state today as broad troughing approaches from the west. This will mean similar temperatures to yesterday with highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Modest warm air advection will lead to plenty of mid to high clouds through the day which will be the main limiting factor for warmer temperatures. At the surface, low pressure currently centered over Alberta will move into eastern Saskatchewan by tonight with a cold front trailing to it's southwest. Precipitation associated with the low should remain well north of the International Border, but there will be a slight chance for some light snow along the cold front as it passes through overnight. Lows tonight will range from the mid teens northwest to the lower 20s southeast.
A weak cold front will move south into the northern half of our area this morning, but is only expected to bring a shift to north winds 5-8 mph. With clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop mostly into the lower to mid 30s for overnight lows across our area. The colder readings are expected in the low-lying areas and river valleys of our central and southern counties.
(Today) Light rain continues across NE OK on the western periphery of the upper low currently located over SW MO and rains will end early this morning as the upper low continues northeastward.
1253 AM PST Sun Nov 27 2022 Seasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast through today before a couple of systems pass through the district this week leading to cooler conditions and unsettled weather. Short range guidance is indicating an inside-slider trough system that is likely to product little to zero precipitation for the forecast area.
143 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Area of low clouds/patchy freezing fog is located from the southern Black Hills into northeast Wyoming.
SW-W surface winds increasing Sunday afternoon to 10-20 kts in E OR ahead of a cold front.
Dry with warmer temperatures today through Monday.
533 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Slow moving mid to upper level low continues to spin over the Ozarks early this morning, with deformation zone rain moving slowly across eastern KS early this morning. Expect this system to be a "quick hitter", as the upper low pulls east of the area later this morning, with rain ending from west to east as the morning progresses. The combination of yesterdays rainfall, and light south winds under the ridge axis could create favorable conditions for fog early on Monday morning, especially for areas along east of the Flint Hills. Otherwise warmer temperatures will return on Monday along with increasing southerly winds as pressure gradient tightens up across the central plains. Meanwhile expect falling temperatures for central KS for Tue afternoon as a strong cold front pushes south.
It was quite a balmy early morning in the Florida Keys as high pressure along the Carolina coast was yielding quickly as a deep trough lifted into the central Mississippi Valley. Keys weather through the middle of this week will be influenced by the mean layer ridging. The cold front associated with the first trough makes little progress past central Florida. A narrow western extension of the North Atlantic high pressure briefly aligns over the Keys, causing the light to gentle breezes early this morning to veer and diminish by evening.
A deepening trough will swing by Monday, bringing light snow showers and gusty winds to western NV and the Sierra.
An expanding surface to 850 mb ridge axis will allow low level flow to maintain a dominant northerly component, and this combined with continued suppressed layer thicknesses will keep temperatures on the cool side today, though still 5-10 degrees warmer than observed yesterday. Lows tonight will therefore remain near seasonal values despite clearing skies and a slightly drier surface airmass with most locations only falling into the low 30s by daybreak on Monday.
However the low clouds and fog should lift by late morning and will not be as wide spread as seen previous days.
531 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper low has exited our area and moved into northern AR.
355 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: A cold front will move through the area today bringing a slight chance of precipitation, primarily to the south. Most of the snow across the region has melted and with minimal snowfall expected today, low temperatures are running warmer than previously expected. Behind the cold front will be breezy conditions and it's likely the Lake Wind Advisory will need to be extended into Monday evening.
(Today and tonight) The upper low has exited our area and moved into northern AR.
(Today through Monday) The bulk of the rain should be out by sunrise, but we will have the wrap-around from the upper low. Winds calm down tonight and clouds will clear at least across the south as the upper low swings through. We will finally see some clearing across the north on Monday as high pressure builds into the area.
514 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Key Points: * Rain will gradually come to an end across the area today with nearly steady temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. * Cooler conditions tonight with sub freezing temperatures.
A cold front will make its way through the Northern Rockies today starting in the Idaho Panhandle this morning southward through Southwest Montana by late afternoon and evening. The main impacts front the intense snow will be travel across Lookout and Lolo passes an portions of the Highway 12 corridor in central Idaho.
348 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Area of low clouds/patchy freezing fog is located from the southern Black Hills into northeast Wyoming.
518 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Today) Light rain continues across NE OK on the western periphery of the upper low currently located over SW MO and rains will end early this morning as the upper low continues northeastward.
Pacific high pressure will remain across wrn and ncntl Nebraska today. The high pressure will drift east tonight setting up southwest winds and warm air/moisture advection. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will drop into nrn Nebraska. The short term model blend suggested highs in the 40s north and 50s south where h850mb temperatures will warm to 5C-10C ahead of the cold front across the north.
High pressure remains over Arizona on Sunday with seasonably warm temperatures and light breezes expected.
310 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Key Points: * Rain will gradually come to an end across the area today with nearly steady temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. * Cooler conditions tonight with sub freezing temperatures.
(Tonight) Winds have been slow to die down this afternoon, but will lessen as the low level pressure gradient broadens out as high pressure to our west gains more of an influence. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s as southwesterly flow remains aloft.
1146 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Key Points: * Rain will gradually come to an end across the area today with nearly steady temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. * Cooler conditions tonight with sub freezing temperatures.
The mean layer ridge centered to the southeast of the Keys remains a formidable block from these mid-latitude intrusions across the CONUS.
1108 AM PST Sun Nov 27 2022 Seasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast through today before a couple of systems pass through the district this week leading to cooler conditions and unsettled weather. Short range guidance is indicating an inside-slider trough system that is likely to produce little to zero precipitation for the forecast area.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) The upper low that brought rain and wind this morning has quickly moved north and we're seeing gusts weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit.
235 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 The light rain has diminished across the area as high pressure and clearing skies edge in from the west. Temperatures this afternoon were in the low to mid 40s for most locations.
1058 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper low has exited our area and moved into northern AR.
Strong upper level jet will enhance snowfall over westerly facing slopes ahead of the cold front overnight. Latest high-res guidance shows convective bands developing ahead of the cold frontal passage late this evening which could produce a brief period of moderate snowfall. Accumulations will be light in the valleys though as surface temperatures will be close to freezing.
146 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 Low pressure and front pushes eastward with lingering moisture and second disturbance allowing for isolated to scattered showers tonight in north and west.
Highs will still be able to climb into the low/mid 60s for most locations, making for a pleasant end to the weekend after our preceding cloudy and dreary days.
1139 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Slow moving mid to upper level low continues to spin over the Ozarks early this morning, with deformation zone rain moving slowly across eastern KS early this morning. Expect this system to be a "quick hitter", as the upper low pulls east of the area later this morning, with rain ending from west to east as the morning progresses. The combination of yesterdays rainfall, and light south winds under the ridge axis could create favorable conditions for fog early on Monday morning, especially for areas along east of the Flint Hills. Otherwise warmer temperatures will return on Monday along with increasing southerly winds as pressure gradient tightens up across the central plains. Meanwhile expect falling temperatures for central KS for Tue afternoon as a strong cold front pushes south.
142 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 Low pressure and front pushes eastward with lingering moisture and second disturbance allowing for isolated to scattered showers tonight in north and west.
202 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Issued 202 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022) Tonight through Monday night: The rain will continue to clear from west to east along with the low level clouds. Gusty northerly winds will become light and variable overnight as high pressure moves overhead resulting in a pleasant start to the week with highs in the 40s.
An H3 150 knot jet will start digging into the western CONUS tonight as an upper low transitions across southern Canada. At the surface, a cold front will move across much of the CWA overnight.
1001 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Skies will be clr as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s today.
High pressure remains over Arizona today with seasonable temperatures and light breezes expected.
1105 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 (Today through Monday) The bulk of the rain should be out by sunrise, but we will have the wrap-around from the upper low. Winds calm down tonight and clouds will clear at least across the south as the upper low swings through. We will finally see some clearing across the north on Monday as high pressure builds into the area.
241 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) Cold front has moved through the remainder of the CWA and precip has exited the area.
Mostly clear skies elsewhere and weak north winds allowing for temperatures to warm 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still remaining below normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Lee troughing will develop tonight with the return of southwest surface winds. Continued clear skies tonight will give way to temperatures still cratering to near freezing, especially across the Caprock. Areas off the Caprock may be slightly warmer in the mid 30s.
1139 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Skies will be clr as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s today.
The fog and low ceilings have finally begun to lift for most areas but the cloud deck will hang around as the cold front continues to push towards the west coast.
(This afternoon through Monday night) A weak cold front is moving through the area today. It isn't much of a cold front since afternoon highs are generally warmer than yesterday, but it is bringing a northerly wind shift that will come back around out of the southwest tonight. Zonal flow over the western United States will quickly usher in an upper trough to the Great Plains on Monday. The jet stream on the southern edge of the trough will strengthen as it reaches the Guadalupe Mountains beginning on Monday.
201 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Area of low clouds/patchy freezing fog is located from the southern Black Hills into northeast Wyoming.