Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Will have to deal with a couple of systems today, one moving south of the area and a weak cold front which will sink southward from the Great Lakes. Have continued the idea of keeping the highest pops over the southern reaches of my forecast area. Southern system will drift through the Mid-Atlantic and toward the southeastern states tonight, as the cold front slowly sinks southward across the region. Main upper level trough will kick both systems southward Wednesday morning, bringing and end to the showers in the south. High pressure will follow, bringing quiet weather through the rest of the period.
WITH APPROACH OF WK COLD FRONT. Attention will turn to a cold front, poised to impinge on the region late this afternoon/early this evening. The aforementioned ua low will translate ne to across the mid- Mississippi valley late week, making way for an ua ridge that will promote drier conditions by early weekend.
Water vapor imagery depicting well eastward tracking mid/upper trof with bulk of rains now east of the forecast area. Will attribute this lingering activity to low level troffing near the coast and associated convergence formed in the wake of convection yesterday. Modest ridging incoming today behind exiting trof will result in sharply drier and subsident air through the column. Our next cold front slips into the area and south to near the coast tonight where it is expected to stall.
High pressure aloft will continue over Northeast Montana today with warm and dry conditions under sunny skies. Upper low moves from British Columbia to the Pacific NW Wednesday Night.
A positively-tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes region is also providing additional ascent ahead of deep layer moisture advection from the south.
Any isolated showers/sprinkles should exit the forecast area by 12z with the front and increasing subsidence and drying behind last of the short waves, with the axis of mid-level trough sinking south of the forecast area by 18z. Steep low-level lapse rates on forecast soundings indicate good potential for shallow scattered to broken diurnal cumulus development inland late this morning and afternoon, with few clouds in the far east with northeast winds bringing cooler and more stable air off of Lake Michigan.
Another unseasonably cool day can be expected due to the low level cloud cover, precipitation and northeast surface winds.
633 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front will slowly drop south through the course of the day today.
and Wednesday Showers with a surface cold front and then followed with the 850 fgen region continues to push south of the area early this morning. Also early this morning mid level clouds were noted over the northern Great Lakes region into Northern Minnesota in the upper short wave trough axis dropping south over the area today. In addition, cool 850 temps around 0 C for much of the today will combine with the upper trough for period of diurnal cu. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures will modify back closer to normal by mid week as the cool high pressure system gradually shifts eastward.
148 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Chances of rain showers will increase tonight into Tuesday as a weak cold front drops southward into the region. Rain shower chances will diminish by Tuesday evening as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the northwest.
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front will slowly drop south through the course of the day today.
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Low pressure will provide rain showers today into tonight.
658 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front over New York state this morning will slowly drift southward today. High pressure behind this front will bring dry weather for the middle of the week.
High pressure over the region maintaining a clear sky and light winds. High pressure will move southeast into the Western Great Lakes Region today, with increasing south/southeasterly return flow over the Northern Plains. Return flow continues tonight with a few clouds moving through as an embedded s/wv trough moves east across Canada.
An upper level ridge will provide dry weather today. A weak frontal system and upper level low will bring a chance of showers Wednesday.
Upper ridge moves across the Northern Plains Wednesday, keeping us dry with temperatures nudging a little closer to normal.
236 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Moisture over running warm front south of CWA.
444 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The westerlies continue to be suppressed over the eastern half of the nation owing to an anomalous upper level trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast.
A trof was dropping S from the Nrn stream and was eroding clouds. This trof will cont S today/tonight. taking the high 1000- 700 mb RH with it. Weak NW flow will prevail behind this trof. This high will drift a little S as it envelops most of the Cntrl/Ern USA. Temps will be 10-15F warmer than yesterday. Low temps will be about 5F cooler than normal. The middle of the workweek is looking dry in between weather systems with the next upstream upper trough in the desert southwest located in the desert southwest per water vapor imagery.
A cold front moving into the Hill Country late this afternoon provides upward forcing to increase showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will move off the coast later today. Low pressure is expected to move across southern Virginia tonight.
Isentropic lift will continue throughout the period on the north side of an advancing warm front. The low level lift could be strong enough for some borderline MVFR ceilings.
These showers are mainly occurring along and north of a warm front that stretches from Hot Springs, Arkansas to Tupelo, Mississippi. the front will begin drifting back south as a cold front. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Mid-South tonight will sink southward and stall out near the Gulf Coast.
Attention will turn to a cold front, poised to impinge on the region late this afternoon/early this evening. The aforementioned ua low will translate ne to across the mid- Mississippi valley late week, making way for an ua ridge that will promote drier conditions by early weekend.
Looks like drier and warmer weather for the next couple of days. A closed low currently over the Great Basin will continue to move south and away from Montana tonight. As a result, clouds and light rain showers associated with the upper low will dissipate with skies clearing from north to south.
/issued 444 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ The westerlies continue to be suppressed over the eastern half of the nation owing to an anomalous upper level trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast.
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Low pressure will provide rain showers today into tonight.
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A broad area of high pressure will dominate through the remainder of the week.
222 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A low pressure system will bring rain showers to the region tonight into Tuesday. Showers have been making a slow eastward trek across the lower and mid Ohio Valley this evening along with a very slow northward push. The 00Z KILN raob is pretty dry below about 600 mb so it will likely take a little while for the lower levels to saturate. Went cooler than guidance with high temperatures generally in the middle 50s. With more breaks in the clouds on Wednesday expect high temperatures in the low to middle 60s. High pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the east allowing an inverted trough to develop across Kentucky into south central Ohio.
The main upper level low will remain over Utah and Arizona through tonight with Colorado under weak southwesterly flow aloft. strong high pressure over the northern and central High Plains will continue producing moist upslope flow across the eastern Colorado plains. Models have very weak flow aloft for the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night as a weak upper trough pushes slowly eastward across Colorado.
Looking at the actual soundings from yesterday, the NAM model soundings did not do a great job at predicting various levels, including the freezing level, which it was too low. Given this, a freezing level of only 12. 5k ft seems well too low, by possibly around 1000ft, if it compares to the difference from last night, which would put the level around 13k-14k ft this afternoon, which makes sense, given the cooler temps forecast aloft. All in all, can not see any reason but to go with the high PoPs for most of South Florida today, although, the activity may begin along the coastal areas and push inland with any sea breeze that may develop. A 500mb ridge begins to slowly build over the eastern Gulf.
These severe thunderstorms will be the result of a cold front moving south in the Lone Star State with a heated and moist atmosphere already in place. " This second bout of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding will once again be the result of the aforementioned cold front lingering within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley with a moist and unstable atmosphere in place.
347 AM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Current CYS radar loop across the region shows precip rates and coverage lower than 6 hours ago as the upper level low continues to dig south into Utah and Nevada early this morning. Still getting bands of rain/snow moving westward across the High Plains of far western Nebraska and southeast Wyoming. Models show the upper level low stalling once again as it drifts south into Arizona today. areas along the Pine and Cheyenne Ridge will continue to have southerly winds which will likely result in low clouds. Models show the much anticipated warming trend beginning on Wednesday as 700MB temperatures rise above freezing. Not expecting this activity to move into the High Plains due to a weak temperature inversion around 700mb.
344 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The short term period begins with the local area largely between major weather systems with high pressure well east of the area off the Carolina coast and a weak low pressure over west Texas.
403 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A trough of low pressure continues over the North County while weak high pressure builds toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. we continue under mid/upper level trough with potent embedded 5h vort passing over our region. This will cause some clouds and should keep temperatures slightly warmer than previous couple of nights. areas under mostly clear skies will see much cooler temperatures with some patchy frost possible. Thinking temperatures will range from the l/m 30s dacks/nek to l/m 40s warmer valleys. Wednesday morning will see an upper level trough finally pulling through the north country. Moisture is quite limited with the energy from the last vort in the trough which crosses through wednesday morning. General high pressure and a dry atmosphere will persist into the weekend with warming temperatures each day.
A large area of high pressure is currently centered just east of the mid Atlantic coast. This high pressure will keep a westward extension across the southeast US today, then settle east/southeastward later tonight. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in regards to a small area of low pressure developing off the Carolina coast on Wednesday, then peeling quickly to the northeast Wednesday night.
657 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Moisture over running warm front south of CWA.
This will occur as the low-level jet veers to more southwest-westerly, cutting off moisture transport/isentropic upglide. Mid-level confluent flow and low-level ridging over the region on Wednesday should result in partly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures, although readings are expected to remain below normal.
258 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Low pressure will continue to slowly pull away to the northeast today as high pressure builds in from the west.
646 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Moisture will increase as a warm front lifts north across the area, while a cold front begins approaching from the west later tonight.
400 AM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Moisture will continue to move over the area through midweek as a low pressure system featuring a distinct pair of low centers circulates over the west. For today, the low circulation over east-central Utah will shift to the northwest as the Nevada circulation drops southeastward toward Las Vegas. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the pressure gradient in the lower levels flow will remain relatively weak with light winds the result with the exception of outflow from thunderstorms.
Dry and warm weather is expected across the area today with an upper level ridge in place. At the surface, a thermal trough will strengthen along the coast bringing gusty northerly winds to the coast and coastal waters. This is followed by an upper low bringing a showery pattern Wednesday night through the end of the week. Today, expect warmer and dry weather over the area. Offshore northeast flow associated with the thermal trough, is expected to bring warm temperatures to the Brookings area with a high near 80.
301 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front over New York state this morning will slowly drift southward today. High pressure behind this front will bring dry weather for the middle of the week.
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Moisture will increase as a warm front lifts north across the area.
354 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Cloudy and cooler will be the rule today behind the outflow infused cold front about to exit our southern zones early this morning.
1022 PM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 A high pressure ridge will bring warm and dry weather to the region on Tuesday. Wednesday will be breezy in the afternoon and evening as a vigorous cold front moves through Washington and north Idaho.
The low-level +PV anomaly(ies) associated with this convection will more gradually translate eastward through the night and will be partially responsible for morning rain and afternoon convection tomorrow. a weak cold front will approach and stall over or near north Florida on Wednesday. Wednesday's rain should arrive later in the day as the sea breeze interacts with the front so look for warmer temps with high temps in the upper 80s.
345 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A trough of low pressure continues over the North County while weak high pressure builds toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. we continue under mid/upper level trough with potent embedded 5h vort passing over our region. This will cause some clouds and should keep temperatures slightly warmer than previous couple of nights. areas under mostly clear skies will see much cooler temperatures with some patchy frost possible. Thinking temperatures will range from the l/m 30s dacks/nek to l/m 40s warmer valleys.
Upper low cuts off over the SWRN US while weak upper ridge remains in place over the northern plains today. Upper low weakens as it moves into the southern plains.
541 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A broad area of high pressure will dominate through the remainder of the week.
Another cool day will occur today as highs only warm into the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
444 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A closed upper low will track slowly east out of the Great Basin and Four Corners Region today and across the central and southern Rockies Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Large upper level high across eastern MT will remain in place today. and transform into a large upper level ridge. A bit of moisture gets trapped between the ridge to our east. the ridge off the west coast. and the large upper low across the Great Basin area to our south. Ridging across the area breaks down for Wednesday. scattered thunderstorms off the higher terrain is possible Wednesday afternoon. with highs in the low to mid 70s.
One band of showers currently over west Kentucky is expected to push slowly east out of the forecast area by 12Z, while another band presses east through southern Illinois generally to the north of the ridge.
137 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Moisture over running warm front south of CWA.
High pressure will build into the Midwest on Wednesday, leading to increasing amounts of sunshine and warmer temps.
339 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Early this morning a mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes region still extended southwestward toward the central U. With sufficient moisture in place, this trough provided enough mid-level lift to produce scattered rain showers across much of east central Kansas and portions of northeast Kansas early this morning. Model soundings show the low clouds this morning gradually lifting by this afternoon and may scatter out some across far northern Kansas. As a result, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer in that region, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s from south to north across the CWA.
Clear skies cover most of interior NorCal early this morning as high pressure builds into the region. This is resulting in some gusty northeast winds over the northern Sierra ridges and canyons (30-40 mph at several locales) and along the west side of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coast Range (gusts of 20-30 mph). With the warmer airmass moving in, early morning temperatures are running a little milder across most of the region with 30s and 40s in the mountains and 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. Breezy areas are considerably warmer with upper 60s to mid 70s presently along the west side and north end of the Sacramento Valley.
High pressure to our north has kept the lower levels of the atmosphere rather dry so some precipitation is having trouble making it to the ground, but this afternoon into the evening the lower troposphere should saturate all the way to the surface. Precipitation chances diminish from the northwest Tuesday night as the low moves off to the east. High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry Wednesday and Wednesday night.
An area of high pressure building southeast from southern Manitoba into the mid/upper Mississippi river valley today will result in mainly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.
Low pops were maintained thru Wednesday with upper trough still to our west.
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure over south central Canada will shift into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tonight and Tuesday. A lake breeze will likely develop, so areas near Lake Superior will be a bit cooler than inland areas. Highs should range from the middle 50s to around 60 near Lake Superior, to the low to middle 60s inland. Wednesday afternoon we should get just enough return flow to generate some showers in the lingering mid level cyclonic flow aloft along the terrain ridge of the north shore, north of Silver Bay.
Expect to see lots of sun again today with 850mb temps about 3c or so warmer, but winds staying on the lighter side.
617 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure will move off the coast later today. Low pressure is expected to move across southern Virginia tonight.
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the timing of a cold front along with its associated low clouds and TSRA. /issued 113 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/ A large upper low over the Intermountain West today will drop southward to AZ by Wednesday. This low will result in an increase in the rain chances across the area.
/Issued 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016/ Cold front has cleared the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with drier air moving in this morning. Much cooler conditions expected today with highs in the mid- to upper-80s.
1038 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure in the forecast area will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
Temperatures across the Tennessee Valley currently range in the lower to middle 80s, with a few spots flirting with the upper 80s at this hour. Clouds are generally increasing from the west ahead of an approaching cold front, with the bulk of the limited precip (for now) associated with it still west of our CWFA. The highest POPs will remain over the NWrn zones, with the lowest POPs in the S/Ern zones. Consensus of model guidance suggests that cold front -- currently well to the nw of the region -- will become reinforced by outflow and accelerate sewd into the region, with wind shift to nnw reaching MSL/22Z and HSV/00Z.
The cold front will be approaching the Ohio and Wabash Rivers by midday, and this is when convection should begin to develop near it.
1238 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 A cold front will sweep across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build in for the early part of the week.
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Update A cold front will track eastward through the Great Lakes Region today.
735 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Ridging at the surface and aloft will dominate the forecast area through today. The upper ridge weakens and gets suppressed to the south overnight as an upper trough moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Expect another hot day similar to the past few but max temperatures should be a few degrees cooler mainly northwest on Sunday.
Temps will warm into the lower 80s in most of the lower elevations today. A dry and stable West- Northwest flow aloft will result in clear skies, light winds, and warmer temperatures today. An upper trough in Western Canada will enter the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain Region on Sunday. A dry cold front ahead of the trough will move rapidly from north to south across the area Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler behind the front, including Burns, Baker City, and McCall.
Tioga is currently the coldest spot with a temp at 11Z of 36 degrees, with most other locations in the low to mid 40s.
High pressure will build in across the region with cooler temperatures and much lower dewpoints. Winds will eventually become SE/S by this evening as high pressure shifts off to the east. Temperatures will moderate Sunday back into the 80s as lee troughing resumes.
High pressure ridging will be over the forecast area one last day before a strong cold front sweeps across the area during the day Sunday. Dry downslope flow has already begun to initiate on the backside of a weak surface trof over eastern Montana. Upslope flow deepens and freezing levels will fall to around 7 kft over the Bighorns and Beartooths as cold air advects into the region.
Confidence is high for a strong, cold, deep upper low pressure system which will move into the northern Rockies from Canada.
Upper trough will drop south tonight across British Columbia and Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move across Northeast Montana during the day on Sunday. The initial frontal passage is expected to be dry as moisture will be near the upper trough axis which is expected to move through the forecast area Sunday Night. With the upper trough Sunday Night, some of the models want to divert most of the moisture away from Northeast Montana while other keep it in the area.
608 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Fairly straight forward forecast today as high pressure remains centered across the Central Plains. With dry atmosphere and good mixing conditions, have sided closer towards warmer guidance, but with 0 standard deviation did not stray far from consensus. Tonight will see southerly winds increase as high pressure slides to the east. Lows will have a strong elevation component, and kept places that are more exposed along the Buffalo Ridge more mild. Sunday will be a warm and windy day day as weak upper level ridging builds into the area and a strong southerly surface pressure gradient develops.
906 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region again today ahead of a cold front that will usher in cooler and drier air for the second half of the weekend. It will remain humid into early afternoon but once the cold front passes and winds become northwest. Highs today will range from the middle 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. Attention now shifts to pcpn chances today as main northern stream trough approaches and pushes surface cold front through the area. Main cold front then follows early this afternoon with additional development of shra/tsra along it. Broad area of high pressure to move in Sunday with much drier and cooler air.