Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
728 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Aviation High pressure will build in today bringing fair and dry weather which will last through Tuesday. A warm front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the week. The cold front will be clearing the forecast area this morning and the showers and storms should be exiting the SE CWA by around 9 am. Sfc ridging building in to bring fair and drier weather with near normal temperatures for today through Tuesday.
958 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today and will cross the area tonight. High pressure will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday.
(Issued 240 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016) A ridge is currently building across the Southeast and into the plains. Meanwhile, the polar jet and mean troughing remains well to the north close to the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest regions.
907 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic today will diminish Tuesday ahead of a weakening cold front.
900 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure aloft will strengthen over the central and southern plains during the first part of this week, then expand westward to center over California and Nevada by the weekend.
Elsewhere, breezy/gusty southerly winds later this afternoon and dry conditions (influenced by the West Coast trough) will lead to an elevated fire danger across mainly the southern Great Basin.
749 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will gradually approach from the west today and will push offshore by late tonight.
/ISSUED / Ridge over the Southern Plains getting stronger and heights have risen over SETX in the last 24 hours.
Highs will be near seasonal norms in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s to near 90 along the coast.
/Issued 401 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/ Water vapor imagery show upper low spinning over pac NW with ridge of high pressure over souther Plains. Expect more of the same tomorrow as ridge continues to strengthen over the area.
High pressure to the west of Middle Tennessee will keep areas west of the I-65 corridor dry today while an isolated thunderstorm may develop over the southeast portions of the area this afternoon.
1135 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will gradually approach from the west today and will push offshore by late tonight.
Upper level high pressure will begin to strengthen and build over the central United States. Hot and humid conditions can therefore be expected again today with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Low temperatures tonight should be very similar to those of early this morning with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
1107 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms on Monday.
842 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances should continue through this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front. High pressure should bring dry and warm weather through much of the rest of the week. Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the approach of a cold front, though with upper support lacking and warming mid levels the amount of redevelopment is in question.
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today and will cross the area tonight. High pressure will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday.
Surface ridging will shift east putting fa in col area overnight. Thermal profiles do not change much overnight so minimum temperatures should range a few degrees either side of freezing.
906 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A backdoor cold front will move into the outlook area this evening and stall just south of the area overnight and Sunday before returning north as a warm front on Monday.
Skies will then remain mostly clear through the day on Sunday as weak high pressure aloft moves into the area, while southwest winds over the plains remain light. The ridge progresses east across MT Sunday for a period of dry conditions across most of the forecast area with temperatures remaining around 10 degrees above seasonal averages and relatively light winds (less than 15 mph) making for a very pleasant spring afternoon across all of north central and SW MT. Next Pacific trough moves onto the west coast Sunday night and following the trend of recent systems splits as it moves inland with the bulk of the energy diving into the Great Basin Monday afternoon, while weaker energy moves into the northern Rockies late Monday.
A large area of deep moisture and lift is slowly advancing east within the broad circulation of the Missouri upper low.
729 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A stalled frontal boundary located just south of Lake Erie will lift north as a warm front on Sunday ahead of low pressure approaching the Central Great Lakes. The low will slowly move northeast into Canada on Monday.
Stacked low pressure system was located over south central MO at 2 pm. Temperatures were in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s in the mostly cloudy warm sector across eastern MO and much of IL up to the now nearly stationary warm front reaching into our far southeast counties. A weakening axis of rain and drizzle was lifting north along the highway 20 corridor. Overnight, widespread fog and patchy drizzle/light rain will likely follow in the low level deformation zone north of the slow moving low.
Cold front remains quite evident in surface observations, with 3pm temperatures of 39 degrees in Erie, 51 degrees in Meadville and 69 degrees in New Castle. Low pressure will track towards Chicago by late Sunday afternoon, bringing an occluded front across eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Another warm day is expected tomorrow, but highs will be about 5-10 degrees cooler as a result of the thicker cloud cover.
815 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Forecast playing out pretty much as expected with rain showers across the lower elevations of Southern Big Horn County and Sheridan County, and some scattered showers over the Absaroka/Beartooth range. Moist diffluent Pacific air moving over cooler surface air behind this mornings cold front will bring scattered showers to western areas this evening, and more persistent rainfall to areas east of a Miles City to Hardin line. Precipitation and clouds will clear from west to east overnight as upper low to the south shifts east and drier northwest flow builds in. Another trof deepens over the west coast Sunday night with southwest flow pushing more Pacific moisture into the area for Monday.
the ridge progresses east across MT Sunday for a period of dry conditions across most of the forecast area with temperatures remaining around 10 degrees above seasonal averages and relatively light winds (less than 15 mph) making for a very peasant spring afternoon across all of north central and SW MT. Next Pacific trough moves onto the west coast Sunday night and following the trend of recent systems splits as it moves inland with the bulk of the energy diving into the Great Basin Monday afternoon awhile weaker energy moves into the northern Rockies late Monday.
Mid/upper low pressure currently spinning over southwest MO. Weak lift associated with the trowal and low pressure is supporting isolated to scattered showers across eastern MO. These showers should linger through the early evening hours as the low lifts northeastward. The clouds should limit the radiational cooling, but winds will be relatively light as a ridge of high pressure positions over central and southeast KS. The forecast area remains dry tomorrow as a quick ridge aloft tracks over the central plains and the next system lifts out over the high plains.
1120 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A cold front stalls south of the region this evening. High pressure builds in overnight from the north and will shift east on Sunday. A warm front will approach from the southwest on Sunday before a weak wave of low pressure forms and passes through the Gulf of Maine Monday.
fairly quiet across the Midsouth this afternoon with upper low in southern Missouri and pivoting dryline/coldfront lifting into the southwest counties.
The parent upper low and its attendant short waves/PV anomalies continues to slowly advance through MO this afternoon and should only reach the IL/WI border by 18z Sunday. The only exception to this may be SE this evening were weak convection is possible near the core of the upper low.
1209 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure will remain across the area tonight. The ridge will crest over the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday night into Monday. Its associated warm front will move to the New Hampshire/Maine border by the end of the period. High pressure will move off to the east Sunday night as low pressure approaches from the west. As the low approaches the St. Lawrence valley on Monday warmer air aloft will be pulled north changing precipitation over to some sleet and rain Downeast as snow continues across the north.
Sky conditions to gradually improve during the evening as upper low shifts north.
The far eastern/northern zones could end up as cool as mid 40s overnight given the cooler/drier sfc observations noted upstream, while the swrn zones could end up in the mid 50s, if not warmer. The convection will move into eastern Ohio late morning/early afternoon and intensify modestly/develop ewd to near KPIT by early evening as the upper low opens and phases into the nrn jet stream. Although a sfc cold front technically will accompany the departure of the upper wave, there does not appear to be much in the way of cold air at the surface associated with this feature. So there is not expected to be a dramatic drop in overnight temp Sunday night, with minima remaining in the lower 50s.
With the big upper low centered over northern Missouri slowly wobbling eastward, we could see enough forcing for some isolated light rain to linger in our far eastern counties, near north central Iowa and south central Minnesota. Lows tonight remain above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. After split energy trough passes longitudinally through Sunday night, will have a period of ridging aloft and quiet overall weather, with usual difficulty in determining if the persistent easterly component will allow any meaningful clearing.
Moisture will be on the increase through tonight associated with an onshore flow circulating around offshore high pressure and a weak cold front approaching from the west. Increased moisture and an eroding cap may lead to showers in the west section late tonight ahead of the upper trough. The higher temperature guidance may be better tonight because of mixing and cloudiness ahead of the weak front. Upper trough will move through the region Sunday.
/issued 255 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Stratus on the back side of the low continues to slowly erode from west to east this afternoon. The timing of the mid to upper low will be advantageous for deep convective development somewhere near or just west of the I35 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours as instability peaks. Storm coverage also appears questionable based on moisture profiles, with the highest chances east of I35 after sunset. Most of the storms should exit our region to the east after ~ 09Z tomorrow night as the mid to upper trough moves into NE OK, along with mid to upper moisture. The next chance of storms will arrive Tues night with the approach of a closed low.
818 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Early evening satellite imagery is showing a broad cyclone over the central Mississippi River Valley, dragging a cold front through the northern Gulf Coast. High pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to ridge into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, as a weak front washes out over the northeastern Gulf on Sunday.
As a low pressure system continues to churn west of the PAH forecast area, light showers continue to dot the radar screens this afternoon. Toward evening, the stacked low pressure system is progged to move closer before skipping off the PAH forecast area in a northeasterly direction. Monday and Monday night will feature yet another tight low pressure system right on the heels of the current one; this one will have a more easterly trek and is progged to damp out as it moves eastward.
642 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 As of 20Z, an area of low pressure over the western Dakotas is bringing breezy southerly winds and clearing skies to the western half of the CWA. With winds becoming light again tonight, the low stratus and fog will likely push back westward, potentially reaching the Missouri River valley by 6Z Sunday. Like today, the low stratus and fog may take several hours to burn off.
740 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday as the area of low pressure approaches from the west.
An upper trough will move east of Utah tonight. High pressure will return briefly on Sunday, followed by another storm system for early in the upcoming week. The upper trough which brought widespread precipitation to much of the forecast area today continues to rotate eastward through the central Rockies this evening. Mid level ridging in the wake of this wave is forecast to build across the region Sunday before the next in the recent series of waves digs into the Great Basin late Sunday night through Monday, bringing yet another round of valley rain and mountain snowfall.
fairly quiet across the Midsouth this afternoon with upper low in southern Missouri and pivoting dryline/cold front lifting into the southwest counties.
Temperatures will be mild overnight, but cooler during that day with little diurnal swing expected due to the aforementioned overcast skies. The upper low moving slowly across the center of the country will exit to the east Sunday night and the second one on its heels will remain well to the south early week.
Upper low over central Missouri will promote MVFR ceilings during the first half of the forecast period. Some SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue near this low across NRN into NERN portions of AR this afternoon and early evening before the storm system lifts further NE out of the region. Expect dry conditions late tonight through Sun as high pressure moves over the state. A warm front will lift north across the state Sun night.
958 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday as the area of low pressure approaches from the west.
A few showers will linger early this evening across Lincoln and northern Mohave County as a low pressure system starts to head east out of the area. High pressure will bring dry conditions Sunday with fairly light winds and above normal temperatures.
Several high res models suggest this low level deck will build back in over the west and east and eventually back up the valley tonight so will be monitoring this closely. Surface ridging will shift east putting fa in col area overnight. Thermal profiles do not change much overnight so minimum temperatures should range a few degrees either side of freezing.
Weak upper trough will maintain a few light showers and flurries in northern mountains this evening. Otherwise partly cloudy and cool tonight as the trough moves eastward. System's warm front will bring light rain and mountain snow Sunday afternoon, snow level 5500 to 6000 feet MSL. After a short break, cold front will bring widespread rain and snow late Sunday night and Monday.
Surface winds never drastically change directions, thus southerly flow Sunday will begin quickly reloading the moisture levels in the lower levels ahead of a storms system slated for Monday.
1013 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Low pressure passes to the northwest on Sunday with showers and storms.
Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 60s. Chances for a few SCT showers will continue through the evening as upper low slowly drifts into the region with a very moist airmass (850mb dewpoints near 10C on 12Z KILX sounding) advected into place. However, center of upper low is still over Missouri and subtle downstream ridging is preventing most, if not all, UVM/precip, especially in our eastern zones. Suspect there will be a break in steadier precip from west to east by tomorrow afternoon as center of dampening/opening upper low moves overhead and slightly drier air wraps around. Extreme, marine layer-driven temp gradient today will be washed out by tomorrow with highs for most of the CWA in the low to mid 60s.
This rain is associated with a deformation band on the northern edge of the low pressure system. There was some initial concern that due to the temperatures and dew points near freezing that there may be some light freezing rain in Taylor and northern Clark counties late tonight. 12z data came in slightly warmer and as a result it is all rain event for even these counties. On Sunday, the NAM MOS temperatures seemed too cold when considering the temperatures that are currently underneath the low pressure area, so went closer to the GFS MOS temperatures. On Sunday night and Monday, the low pressure area will move move slowly east across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, another short wave trough will be moving to the south of the forecast area.
Another trough was just off the west coast, with 110m height falls into southern CA. The 850mb low center was nearly stacked under the upper low, with closed circulation encompassing an area from southern MN to northern TX and western KS to the MS river. Moisture had wrapped behind the low across IA/eastern NE/KS. Clouds will linger through much of Sunday, with just a short break in weather as upper-level ridge slides through ahead of the next trough/low upstream. In wake of that system, a broader upper-level ridge will move into the central US, with more residence time ahead of the next upper low.
1101 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Cutoff low currently hanging out over central Missouri will continue to slowly meander northeastward overnight, not getting too much of a push out of here until the next low pressure system approaches tomorrow night. This second system, although will help to push this first one along, doesn't appear to be as robust with models essentially having the upper portion of the low transitioning into an open wave as it crosses southern/central Missouri Monday night.
Isolated showers this evening will come to an end as a weak ridge moves across Western Washington.
At the upper levels, a west coast trough will keep the state in southwest flow through the short term. Many of the High Resolution models are showing fog from east of the Missouri River valley to the James River valley. Over the James River valley, forecast soundings show a very brief opportunity of a light mixture of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet Sunday morning.
The approaching upper trof will begin to affect central Kansas by Sunday afternoon with numerous to widespread rainfall from showers and embedded thunder by Sunday evening/night.
With this cold core low, can't rule out some small hail with stronger updrafts that may briefly try to form over central MO northeast and east of the low this afternoon. Precip chances will shift northeast with the low this afternoon and this evening, but clouds are likely to hang on into Sunday, finally starting to clear from the west during the day Sunday.
Current satellite imagery showing a plume of deep moisture tapping into the Gulf across the lower Mississippi Valley northward into the Tennessee Valley with generally scattered mid and high clouds across the Upstate and western Midlands. Upper trough will move through the region Sunday.
Weak high pressure aloft will keep some scattered to broken mid level clouds over the mountains, while the plains remain mostly clear. The ridge progresses east across MT Sunday for a period of dry conditions across most of the forecast area with temperatures remaining around 10 degrees above seasonal averages and relatively light winds (less than 15 mph) making for a very pleasant spring afternoon across all of north central and SW MT. Next Pacific trough moves onto the west coast Sunday night and following the trend of recent systems splits as it moves inland with the bulk of the energy diving into the Great Basin Monday afternoon, while weaker energy moves into the northern Rockies late Monday.
620 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Upper low over central Missouri will promote MVFR ceilings during the first half of the forecast period. Some SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue near this low across NRN into NERN portions of AR this afternoon and early evening before the storm system lifts further NE out of the region. Expect dry conditions late tonight through Sun as high pressure moves over the state. A warm front will lift north across the state Sun night.
Otherwise, drier and cooler weather to persist through afternoon hours. A pronouced southern stream upper trof will advance through the southern/central Plains Sunday night, then weaken as it moves through the lower/mid MS Valley region on Monday. Large scale ascent with this trof will spread into the region Monday night, along with lift and moisture transport/WAA via a southwesterly LLJ, and should promote the east/northeast development/spread of showers through central and southeast MO. This motion will allow the warm front to retreat nortward and bring an expanding warm sector to roughly the southeast 1/3-1/2 of the CWA. Cooling aloft/steeping mid level lapse rates associated with upper trof along with low level moisture & warm thermal advection are forecast to result in decent instability during the afternoon with SCAPE from 700-1400 J/KG.
Deep lyr ridge extending from Bermuda into the SE GOMex will maintain an E/SE H100-H70 mean flow acrs central FL. Latest Sounding confirms effects of local ridge as moisture values have dropped to well below and inch of PWAT along with some subsidence related warming.
1004 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Skies are partly cloudy with east winds of 10 to 15 mph which are keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 70 along the island chain. Surface wise, a two prong western Atlantic ridge axis extends across the southeast United States and the northern half of the Sunshine State. Under partly cloudy skies and a light to gentle east wind, low temperatures will should hold in the lower 70s along most Keys communities.
Southerly flow will dominate through the period with weak high pressure moving east along the northern Gulf Coast tonight. /issued 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Zonal flow will continue locally during the next 36 hours as a fast moving secondary H5 trough sweeps across the central plains. What's left of a weak cold front stalled across the northern ranchlands, bringing light north winds, but drier air remained further north.
925 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the Carolinas and VA through Sunday. Weak southerly moist warm air advection between the Bermuda high over the western Atlantic and a slow moving low pressure system lifting NE through the Middle MS Valley will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight and continued mild temperatures. A lead s/w rotating around the mid MS Valley upper low will lift newd from eastern TN into the central Appalachians Sunday, brushing our nw sector. Still, warm sly flow along with partial sun should be able to boost temperatures back into the low-mid 70s.
704 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Cutoff low currently hanging out over central Missouri will continue to slowly meander northeastward overnight, not getting too much of a push out of here until the next low pressure system approaches tomorrow night. This second system, although will help to push this first one along, doesn't appear to be as robust with models essentially having the upper portion of the low transitioning into an open wave as it crosses southern/central Missouri Monday night.
826 PM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure over the Inland Northwest will bring dry weather overnight into Sunday morning.