Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
303 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Through Tuesday: A persistent upper level trough extending from the ArkLaTex to Ohio Valley region will continue to transport a very moist deep layer airmass into the forecast area. The combination of weak ascent associated with the trough and destabilization due to daytime heating is currently supporting scattered shower/tstm activity with locally heavy downpours, mainly over far eastern MS.
As we get into mid week, high pressure will control our weather for a few days, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s for highs.
Clearing through the morning for sunny weather this afternoon with ridging building into the area. An upper ridge will build into the area through Tuesday for warmer weather, especially on Tuesday.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to be a bit warmer than last night, with lower 50s along the International Border and near 60 degrees in the southern Red River Valley.
(The rest of today ) Mid level closed low centered over SE OK with drift slowly southward with difluent zone extending across far E OK and western AR. This coupled with afternoon instability will support isolated to scattered storms with the higher coverage expected across western AR.
1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Key Messages: - Continued quiet, some clouds and fog potential tonight - Warming into midweek - Rain chances looking more likely heading into weekend A dome of high pressure aloft remains centered over the Great Basin with ridging extending into the Upper Midwest.
Skies may become mostly clear for a time before clouds in association an inverted trough and lingering 500mb vorticity aloft push west. As this inverted trough moves west, convergence along the lakeshore and increased low lvl moisture should give impetus to light showers in the early morning hours of Tuesday. Tomorrow, light shower activity should continue along the lakeshore through the post dawn hours and into the early afternoon, slowly pushing inland and dissipating as the inverted trough weakens and winds shift to easterly. Cloud cover should then dissipate going into the evening hours as the elongated 500mb trough finally pushes east and drier air from the high pressure situated to our north moves in.
Weak ridging along the US east coast, associated with a blocking pattern, will be forced towards the south over the next 24 hours or so in response to a trough approaching the northeast and TS Earl moving north over the western Atlantic. As it repositions over the southeast and Florida, the high will begin to lose definition.
Chances for precipitation look even smaller Tuesday as the dominant upper level ridge centered over Utah expands to the southeast with increasing mid- level temperatures over the forecast area is progged to result in a healthy capping inversion between 700 and 600 mb.
Our weather the last few days has been dominated by a weak upper trough that has been stuck over eastern MO and IL. The upper pattern will feature the strong ridge over the West spreading eastward into the middle of the country. Models have trended the upper trough/closed low further south and as a result, it will allow increased heights and thicknesses to expand eastward into the area, warming temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 by the end of the work week. With the upper low sliding south of the area, low- level flow from the south is disrupted and as a result, dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s throughout the week. For the weekend, models show a positively tilted trough moving southeastward into the area.
110 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 A dry airmass and high pressure continue to dominate the region, and brought the region a mostly clear sky day. For the remainder of the afternoon, some additional warming is expected, and some folks should dip into the low 70s. Models are in agreement that a stronger system will further knock the ridge down late in the week but disagree on how quickly it will rebuild and if troughing will linger over the upper Great Lakes. Locations along Lake Superior over the west may stay a bit warmer with southerly downslope winds keeping things mixed through the night.
Key Messages: - Warm and dry this week, cooler for the weekend.
/44/ (Monday through Tuesday) A fairly stagnant pattern to persist through the short-term period characterized by an upper-level trough as well as a weak surface boundary lingering across the region. However, it should be noted that each day will not be a washout by any means despite persistent upper-level troughing that is expected to remain in place this week. This pattern will be largely driven by the massive upper-level ridge out west while the Bermuda High maintains its usual residence across the western Atlantic, effectively pinning the trough over much of the eastern CONUS. Given the trough axis placement generally along the Mid and Lower MS Valley, expect the heaviest rainfall amounts to remain well east of our region throughout the week.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Upper trough is situated to our west this afteroon and already the deepest moisture is sliding off to the east. POP's will further diminish tonight, but look for more widespread activity tomorrow as the upper trough swings across the mid state.
Upper ridging will continue to dominate with much above normal highs expected on Tuesday. Breezy east to northeast winds may develop Tuesday night as high pressure pushes in from the north and the pressure gradient increases. The large dome of high pressure at 500mb over UT will remain in place in one form or another through the week.
Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the low to mid 70s.
Most of the high res models show the convection dissipating by or shortly after midnight and not returning tomorrow, so will run with a dry and warmer forecast for Tuesday. Lows in the upper 60s to near 70 with highs on Tuesday heading up into the low to mid 90s.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper pattern unchanged over the last few days with a strong upper ridge entrenched over the Western US and a trough reaching from the Great Lakes to TX. On Tuesday the ridge is expected to expand eastward into the region. Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday with high pressure building in, readings into the lower 90s across much of the area with 80s for the higher elevations.
A few breaks in the low cloud cover will be possible late this afternoon, with stratus likely filling back in tonight into Tuesday morning. Some clearing is expected by Tuesday afternoon as drier air begins to filter in behind the mid level trough axis and embedded upper vort. The mid level trough will sink southeast into the Appalachians and Deep South for mid-late week.
105 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Prevailing tranquil conditions will continue today and tonight as a broad upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control throughout the entire western conus, including the Western High Plains. A relatively weak northeast flow aloft combined with a much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels limiting instability, will keep precip chances at bay in western Kansas through the period. Temperatures will bump up a little today as prevailing low level south-southeasterlies draw warmer air back into western Kansas. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s(F) can be expected. The ongoing stagnant dry/warming pattern will persist through the middle of the week as models indicate upper level ridging further building across the Intermountain West, expanding well into the Northern and Central Plains.
A slightly flattened ridge will permit temperatures to be slightly cooler today, though values will still be above normal.
(Through tonight ) Well defined upper low is centered over southeast OK this afternoon, with an axis of higher sfc dew points/instability extending from central AR into northeast OK. (Tomorrow through Monday) Upper trough axis will gradually shift more to the east the next few days. By mid week the low will likely drift far enough southeast the precip chances will lessen as drier airmass moves in on the back side.
/Updated at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022/ An upper level trough will remain over the MS River Valley today and slowly move eastward overnight. Low level south to southwesterly flow today and this evening will bring plenty of moisture and warmer air to the state with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through the evening. Tonight as the trough pushes east. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s.
137 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the High Plains as virtually no cloud cover is present across the area. Tuesday will be nearly identical to today other than warmer and drier conditions being present. Winds will become more southwesterly allowing drier air to advect into the area which will lead to RH values in the low to mid teens mainly along and west of a Tribune to McCook line. There may be some hazy skies during the afternoon as smoke from western CONUS fires gets transported via the eastern periphery of the ridge into the areas, the 12Z HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke supports this as well.
1155 AM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (The rest of today ) Mid level closed low centered over SE OK with drift slowly southward with difluent zone extending across far E OK and western AR. This coupled with afternoon instability will support isolated to scattered storms with the higher coverage expected across western AR.
A strong high pressure system over the western United States will remain in place through the middle of the week. High pressure will weaken toward the end of the week leading to decreasing temperatures and an increasing chance of thunderstorms as monsoon moisture spreads back into Arizona. A strong high pressure system continues to dominate northern Arizona weather with hot temperatures and a few east to northeast breezes.
(This evening through Tuesday) Drier airmass in place today has limited shower and thunderstorm development in our area, with activity instead focused to our south and east on the east side of the upper low clearly evident on satellite across southeast Oklahoma. The upper trough axis drifts a bit further east tomorrow, which will likely take precipitation chances even further away from our area, so expect a mainly dry day. High temperatures will warm 2-3 degrees on Tuesday compared to today, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the area.
A subtle wave of energy moving along the Canadian border today has flattened the upper level ridge and will produce some breezy winds across western Montana and north central Idaho this afternoon and evening. The high pressure ridge rebounds over the region Tuesday, bringing an increase in temperatures over those experienced on Monday.
103 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible through midweek due to a slow moving low pressure system. Showers with an embedded thunderstorm will continue through the day and overnight as low pressure makes little progress in its eastward movement. The frontal boundary should gradually move southeast through Tuesday in conjunction with slow eastward movement of aforementioned low pressure. Long range model ensembles indicate low pressure may linger in the OH Valley. Restrictions are likely through Wed with a slow movg trough.
1156 AM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible through midweek due to a slow moving low pressure system. Showers with an embedded thunderstorm will continue through the day and overnight as low pressure makes little progress in its eastward movement. The frontal boundary should gradually move southeast through Tuesday in conjunction with slow eastward movement of aforementioned low pressure. Long range model ensembles indicate low pressure may linger in the OH Valley. Restrictions are likely through Wed with a slow movg trough.
High pressure will continue to be the predominant synoptic feature through the short term period as it firmly remains planted over the Great Basin. Additionally, significant dry air in the lower levels will result in little to no wetting rain with storms. Triple digit heat will continue to plague the lower valleys of southeast Utah and portions of west- central Colorado with numerous records expected each day. Low temperatures both tonight and Tuesday night will also trend several degrees warmer than normal.
242 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 A dry airmass and high pressure continue to dominate the region, and brought the region a mostly clear sky day. For the remainder of the afternoon, some additional warming is expected, and some folks should dip into the low 70s. Yoopers should expect a gradual warming trend as the upper level ridge flattens and a warmer airmass builds into the region.
209 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Massive western CONUS hot ridge will remain anchored to the west through mid week, supporting hot and dry conds locally. Deeper NW Pac upper trough will then advect into the northern plains toward the end of the week, supporting a strong cold front into the region Thur.
1127 AM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region overnight with the high centered over eastern Nevada.
233 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 The hot and dry weather continues into Tuesday with the 597dm upper ridge centered over the NV/UT border Tuesday morning. The ridge is expected to strengthen through the day Tuesday with 700 mb temperatures staying in the 18-20C range over Colorado. A batch of moisture can be seen on water vapor that even with the ridge extending a little further east could bring some high level clouds Tuesday morning with some isolated mountain CU by the afternoon.
118 PM PDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Near-record to record temperatures will continue through at least midweek with 100+ degrees for the lower elevations. Cooler conditions and chances for rain will be possible by the weekend. High pressure will keep very, hot temperatures, dry conditions, and light winds across the Sierra and western Nevada.
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Drier airmass in place today has limited shower and thunderstorm development in our area, with activity instead focused to our south and east on the east side of the upper low clearly evident on satellite across southeast Oklahoma. The upper trough axis drifts a bit further east tomorrow, which will likely take precipitation chances even further away from our area, so expect a mainly dry day. High temperatures will warm 2-3 degrees on Tuesday compared to today, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the area.
As we get into mid week, high pressure will control our weather for a few days, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s for highs. The region remains under the influence of an upper level low, which was evident in water vapor imagery north of Lafayette, IN, at 0130z/830pm.
616 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 There is some lingering showers occurring over the higher mountains areas early this evening, but much of that will be diminishing by 7-8 pm. The hot and dry weather continues into Tuesday with the 597dm upper ridge centered over the NV/UT border Tuesday morning. The ridge is expected to strengthen through the day Tuesday with 700 mb temperatures staying in the 18-20C range over Colorado. A batch of moisture can be seen on water vapor that even with the ridge extending a little further east could bring some high level clouds Tuesday morning with some isolated mountain CU by the afternoon.
710 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Upper trough is situated to our west this afternoon and already the deepest moisture is sliding off to the east. POP's will further diminish tonight, but look for more widespread activity tomorrow as the upper trough swings across the mid state.
(Tonight) A positively tilted trough stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains.
613 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (Through tonight ) Well defined upper low is centered over southeast OK this afternoon, with an axis of higher sfc dew points/instability extending from central AR into northeast OK. (Tomorrow through Monday) Upper trough axis will gradually shift more to the east the next few days. By mid week the low will likely drift far enough southeast the precip chances will lessen as drier airmass moves in on the back side.
The upper trough is nearly overhead, so weak forcing for ascent is available and the incoming 00Z FWD sounding shows an uncapped boundary layer with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Some of the high resolution guidance does show another increase in shower activity late tonight toward early Tuesday morning south of I-20, so we've retained some 20% PoPs during this time. Otherwise, the main upper low will drift eastward a bit on Tuesday taking the main forcing for ascent farther into East Texas. This should take the greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms a little farther east, but given the proximity of the upper low, we'll hang on to some 20% PoPs across a good chunk of the region through the afternoon.
Isolated showers were presently drifting west along an osciallating convergence boundary originally set as a lee streamer from the lower Keys. Deep easterlies continue, although speeds in the lower troposhere were decreased from this morning; now around 10 knots. Mid-level ridging remains strong across the Florida Peninsula with heights rising at Key West to 592 Dm, but little if any change in temperatures and lapse rates since last evening. CAMS guidance favors periodic convective growth along the present boundary just to the north and west of the Lower Keys, as well as an uptick in coverage through the night in the eastern, offshore Straits as deeper moisture south of Andros Island advects westward.
(The rest of tonight) Deep moisture wrapping around the eastern and northern periphery of a well defined upper low along the Red River once again led to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Monday) Upper trough axis will gradually shift more to the east the next few days. By mid week the low will likely drift far enough southeast the precip chances will lessen as drier airmass moves in on the back side.
842 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Shower and embedded thunderstorm chances will slowly lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region.
508 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Massive western CONUS hot ridge will remain anchored to the west through mid week, supporting hot and dry conds locally. Deeper NW Pac upper trough will then advect into the northern plains toward the end of the week, supporting a strong cold front into the region Thur.
Smoke from area fires kept temperatures a bit cooler today then forecast. The ridge will expand northward on Tuesday allowing temperatures to approach records maxes.
Surface temperatures have increased quiet a bit compared to 24 hours ago, and are currently 5-10 degrees F warmer than those observed yesterday across the region. As the high pressure overhead continues to strengthen through Tuesday, expect the warmest days to be today and Tuesday. Some mid-level moisture rotating around the periphery of the high pressure will continue to keep isolated shower or thunderstorm chances in the forecast for the Sierra-Nevada through the week.
That said, we'll also keep an eye further upstream where there are a few cells developing in association with some weak disturbances rotating around the backside of the mid-upper low near Texarkana. Tuesday's wx looks similar to what we saw today, but a touch warmer with many areas starting the day with a llvl swly flow. Precip should be mainly be confined offshore, but there is a continued possibility for iso-sct activity inland complements of the afternoon seabreeze and/or any upper disturbances riding around the upper trough/low.
620 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper pattern unchanged over the last few days with a strong upper ridge entrenched over the Western US and a trough reaching from the Great Lakes to TX. On Tuesday the ridge is expected to expand eastward into the region. Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday with high pressure building in, readings into the lower 90s across much of the area with 80s for the higher elevations.
Efficient radiational cooling is expected tonight, which may allow for some shallow, patchy radiational fog to form near an incoming sfc warm front from central ND where winds have the best chance of being calm. However, given how dry the lowest levels are, impacts are generally not expected given its patchy and shallow nature. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be a bit warmer than last night, with lower 50s along the International Border and near 60 degrees in the southern Red River Valley.
A strong high pressure system over the western United States will remain in place through the middle of the week. High pressure will weaken toward the end of the week leading to decreasing temperatures and an increasing chance of thunderstorms as monsoon moisture spreads back into Arizona. A strong high pressure system remains centered over Nevada and Utah. This was placing Arizona on the southern fringes of the clockwise high pressure circulation.
E winds around 5-10kts this evening becoming light and variable towards daybreak, under high pressure.
With some cloud cover through the overnight, temperatures will remain mild with lows in the low and mid 70s. The upper level trough will remain west of the region as pwat values lower to around 1.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Upper trough is situated to our west this afternoon and already the deepest moisture is sliding off to the east. POP's will further diminish tonight, but look for more widespread activity tomorrow as the upper trough swings across the mid state.
Current dewpoint values over northeast Mississippi are trending about 4 degrees warmer than forecasted, so adjusted values for tonight. A positively tilted longwave trough oriented from the New England area into southern Louisiana will remain quasi-stationary keeping temperatures seasonably mild with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible each day. A cutoff low is likely to develop over on the south end of the trough over south Louisiana after midweek.
743 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 A dry airmass and high pressure continue to dominate the region, and brought the region a mostly clear sky day. For the remainder of the afternoon, some additional warming is expected, and some folks should dip into the low 70s. Yoopers should expect a gradual warming trend as the upper level ridge flattens and a warmer airmass builds into the region.
827 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Shower and embedded thunderstorm chances will slowly lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. Will maintain Flood Watch highlights as a localized flooding threat remains with slow storm motion, but that threat is on the lower side at this time and is expected to lower til its expiration.
1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 (Tonight) A positively tilted trough stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains.
321 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A massive blocking event is underway with an Omega configuration over the western United States and a Rex-like feature extending through the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada. The ridge centroid of the Rex block over Ontario/Quebec has resulted in a stubborn, prevailing moist easterly flow locally. There is a lack of advections in this blocking pattern which results in slowly evolving weather. Surface observations show dewpoints some 3 to 4 degrees higher for locations in the low stratus/clearing, suggesting that a deeper mixed layer resides above the surface.
This will help keep the surface insulated, with temperatures remaining mild resulting in lows in the low and mid 70s. The upper level trough will remain west of the region as pwat values lower to around 1.