Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The good news is sfc temps are above freezing across the entire forecast area, so no freezing drizzle is expected. Early This Morning The stratus, and less than sufficient cold air advection, has -- so far -- prevented all counties which had a freezing warning this morning from falling to 32 F or colder. Today and Tonight Any county that does not end up with widespread lows of 31 F or colder this morning will be added to the freezing warning for tonight. For now, it appears that systems will be mainly dominated by cold front passages, and some cyclonic flow in the days following them.
This has helped keep overnight temperatures in the lower 30s across much of the Plains. an upper trough over the Missouri Valley will continue east away from Colorado while high pressure builds along the West Coast. With clearing skies tonight, temperatures will likely fall into the lower to mid 30s across the region.
Have had to adjust temperature grids slightly to slow rate of cooling as the high cloudiness is helping insulate those areas under it. This did result in an adjustment in the low temperature forecast to be slightly warmer in the western and central Panhandles, but all regions still are within Hard Freeze Warning criteria. /Issued 440 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ After a cool day where our highs struggled to reach 50 today, temperatures are expected to rebound into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow, as the upper level trough shifts eastward. By Sunday the area will be under dry northwest flow aloft, with a lee side trough setting up southwest flow to the area.
341 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A tall upper ridge along the west coast and a deep low over the Great Lakes region is resulting in northerly flow over Colorado. With an upper ridge not expected to move in until later today and forecast soundings showing the cloud deck hanging around longer, have opted to drop today's high temperature forecast by a few degrees. North to northwesterly winds will again be breezy across the high terrain and the eastern plains. However, a cold front will push across the plains in the afternoon, bringing increasing winds and the onset of another sharp weather change.
Quiet and dry weather will persist through the weekend before the next system brings mainly clouds and cooler temperatures for Halloween, though a chance of a sprinkle or two is hard to rule out.
A strong cold front will push through the Southern Appalachian Region this TAF period.
Cold front is expected to work through the area on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
318 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Upper ridge remains over the Western US as a deep trough extends from the Great lakes to Mexico. The trough axis will shift eastward next few days and the ridge is expected to weaken too.
413 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A large upper-level trough will remain over the region through the weekend.
A deep upper level low pressure system will keep mostly cloudy and cool conditions across Central Indiana today.
Rain is spreading into east Tennessee this morning just ahead of a cold front now moving onto the Cumberland Plateau counties. Tonight and Sunday morning longwave trough moves through the region and with very cold air aloft and lingering moisture. Northwest winds and low moisture aloft will produce some very light freezing rain or drizzle late tonight and early Sunday. Temperatures will drop to near to below freezing only in the higher elevations. Sunday cold temperatures continue and more light freezing drizzle or drizzle possible. even below freezing higher elevations to possibly only mid 40s central valley.
The H500 flow aloft is in transition bringing a short wave ridge across the northern plains today. Tonight the warm/cold frontal system will approach from the northwest as the next upper low moves into the region from western Canada. With teh warmer air began a chance of rain late tonight as surface and temperatures aloft will support liquid.
and Sunday Snow or snow mix trends this morning with a slowly departing low pressure system the primary forecast issue. Precipitation will come to an end from southwest to northeast today as the nearly stacked low pressure system drifts northeast of the area. Any clearing Sunday morning will be brief as clouds quickly move back in ahead of the next low pressure region approaching from the Northern Plains and south central Canada.
After a Very Cold Start Today a Warming Trend thru Tomorrow Hazardous Weather: None Aloft: WV imagery/00Z upr-air charts and model analyses showed a highly amplified ridge/high along the W coast and a trof extending from the GtLakes to TX. This N flow will cont today with the trof picking up speed as it moves E. This system will induce warm frontogenesis from the Wrn Dakota's down to TX. As this low dives to near Lake Winnipeg tonight. it will drive the warm front E into the CWA between midnight and sunrise Sun. Trimmed 2-4F off highs from prvs fcst E of Hwy 281 with the Wrn edge of the H8 thermal trof still over the E 1/2 of Neb/KS. The approach of the warm front will at least maintain these clds. A cold front will move through the forecast area on Sunday.
North of the Interstate 30 corridor, temperatures have dropped below freezing, and there are still another few hours of cooling to go before sunrise. The Canadian airmass should spread even farther south, and below freezing temperatures are expected across nearly the entire area. However, the decision was made to include some of these areas in the Freeze Warning for tonight/Sunday morning to better maintain consistency with surrounding offices and because as of the issuance of this forecast, some of the areas warned for this morning have not yet fallen below freezing.
Large upper trough will advance and dig into the se states tonight bringing in a cold front while picking up Potential Tropical Cyclone #18 now over the western Carribean. Southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures today with highs reaching the lower 80s. Cold front will move across the area tonight. Front will move offshore after midnight with breezy northwest winds and cooler conditions by morning.
/Issued 1107 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Seeing some weak echoes across parts of the coastal waters as the base of the mid-level trough continues to dive towards the south. In wake of the cold front passage earlier today, gusty north winds and falling temperatures have developed. Tomorrow night will be just as chilly to a few degrees cooler.
Most locations have at least touched the freezing mark or just slightly below. We wouldn't be suprised if we see a few colder valleys over the eastern Ozarks get down into the lower 20s. Light southerly winds return on Sunday and the upper level trough begins to move away from the region. Another trough will dig across the Upper Midwest on Modnay and push another dry cold front through the area.
Upper level analysis shows deep low pressure over the western Great Lakes region, with a high amplitude ridge along the west coast. Milder air will continue to push east across the area today as the trough moves across the Dakotas. Highs today will mostly be in the 50s, with some 40s across the higher Black Hills. Relatively mild temps will continue into tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front.
Lows look to range from around freezing to the mid 30s. Given that most locations will be at or above freezing tonight, will hold off on issuing any headlines for tonight right now. A broad trough will be in place across the northeastern CONUS through this time frame.
1109 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof shifting into the Great Lakes area and ridge building across the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is located across Wisconsin, with high pressure across the Northern Rockies. Upper ridge will remain across the western CONUS with the forecast area on the eastern edge. Another cold front will move through the Northern Plains Sunday morning, with a few rain/snow showers possible over northeast WY and the Black Hills Sunday afternoon and evening.
330 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Flow continued from the north over the forecast area as a high amplitude ridge lingered over the west. A trough moving southeastward across western Canada will begin to break down the ridge causing flow to shift to a more north- westerly direction tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be a bit cooler across the north with the loss of cloud cover, otherwise low temperatures are expected to be relatively unchanged. The shift to northwest flow on Sunday will usher in warmer air and expect most locations will experience a return to near normal highs during the afternoon.
Will see an increase in mid/upper level clouds with the trough's passage and a wind shift to northwest but remaining light. Temperatures in the single digits and teens will be common under high pressure. Thankfully winds will be light so wind chills will only feel minimally cooler than the temperature. Tomorrow a trough will approach western North Dakota. This will allow warmer westerly winds to push into the area bringing temperatures up into the 50s across western North Dakota. Cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday with a cold front moving through with highs in the low 40s to low 50s.
Synoptic Setup: forecast begins with a ridge running up the western north american coast from California to central British Columbia with its influence spreading through the western third of the CONUS. A large trough runs through the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada. buried in the flow is a sub-synoptic ridge over southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Montana. Today: Ridge aloft will move across the region allowing for clear to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Ridge should rapidly exit the area in the evening bring a cold front. Have shifted winds from SuperBlend to CONSMOS during this time to account for the higher CAA.
130 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 With the current cloud cover and temperatures, and now expecting the cloud cover to remain through the night, have adjusted tonight's low temperatures to be warmer. Mid and high level moisture continues streaming over the state from the north as the high amplitude western ridge/eastern trough flow pattern remains in place. The QPF fields show a tad of measurable precipitation in the high mountains north of I-70 later tonight into Saturday morning. Skies will clear Saturday night as an upper level ridge in the northwest flow aloft pass over the state. Mild temperatures are expected Sunday ahead of a approaching cold front.
538 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: A cold front has moved to the east of the area this morning, but post frontal showers are bringing MVFR conditions to HBG and MEI. /15/ Today and Tonight: The cold front has moved to the east of the area early this morning, but some post-frontal showers are continuing mainly for areas along and east of the Natchez Trace. Strong cold air advection will prevail through the day with high temperatures only climbing into the low/mid 50s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Even after an adjustment earlier, temps still running a few degrees warmer than forecast at this hour in the mid-Lower RGV, mainly due to some stubborn mid- level clouds. With nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling in place, low temperatures for Sunday morning will fall to the low-mid 40s, except on the barrier island.
355 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Late night sfc analysis shows the cold front now past the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows deep troffing over the cntl CONUS ushering in drier air through the column. The beginning of what looks like several nice days comes today high pressure in wake of the cold front continues building over the region while associated shower activity steadily departs to the east. With the high moving to a nearly overhead position by this evening, excellent radiating conditions are expected for tonight, allowing temps to drop to their coldest levels so far this season. Latest suite of guidance numbers keep mins just above the freezing mark across the nrn 1/2 of the area.
Strong high pressure will weaken today over the region as a low pressure system moves into Southern California.
348 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Unseasonably cool conditions will remain in place this weekend as a ridge of high pressure drifts east across the region. Only fly in the ointment would be if cloud cover associated with the main upper trof hang around a bit longer than expected.
High pressure will continue to promote coastal low clouds and dry conditions for inland areas. High pressure remain in place centered over the west coast this morning. At the coast low clouds and fog are expected to be quite persistent with the marine layer gradually deepening and the low clouds spreading farther inland each day.
Post frontal low-mid level fgen forcing and slowly approaching mid/upper level trough will continue to promote some light precip across southeast third of the forecast area at least through the early overnight hours. Earlier this evening, did have scattered instances of sleet being reported with steep near sfc lapse rates and low freezing levels, and could still have a few reports across NW Ohio for next few hours before drier low level air advects eastward. The cold front had moved across the area, with much colder air spreading over the region.
Freezing Cold This Morning. Most locations have at least touched the freezing mark or just slightly below. We wouldn't be suprised if we see a few colder valleys over the eastern Ozarks get down into the lower 20s. Light southerly winds return on Sunday and the upper level trough begins to move away from the region. Another trough will dig across the Upper Midwest on Modnay and push another dry cold front through the area.
High pressure begins to build up over South Texas today. Temperatures will be on the cooler side today as northerly winds continue to advect cold-air over us.
/issued 318 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Upper ridge remains over the Western US as a deep trough extends from the Great lakes to Mexico. The trough axis will shift eastward next few days and the ridge is expected to weaken too.
Short range high res models have the fog mainly along the Red River Valley through sunrise, although various solutions have the lowest visibilities drifting off to the west or east. Southwest winds will continue for much of the night, and the models all bring a thermal ridge along the trough axis. With warmer air moving in late tonight think that this round will be mostly rain. The trough axis passes off to our east, with northwest winds and cold air advection behind it. Still think there should be enough warming out ahead of the cold front to have precip go over to rain for a time Sunday afternoon, as model soundings get pretty warm and the colder 925mb temps don't move back in until Sunday evening.
339 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 /Today and Tonight/ Today should be a fantastic but cool day across North Texas as the large upper trough continues to move east of the area and strong height rises spread through the southern Plains. This will make temperatures in the 50s feel a little cooler, although full sun will help. By tonight, the high will shift south and east of the area with light southwest winds prevailing across the region.
213 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Updated the forecast to decrease sky cover as high pressure has kept much of the cloudiness well to the west. Breezy northwesterly winds are continuing across the local area this afternoon as the pressure gradient has been slow to relax behind a departing area of low pressure now affecting the Great Lakes region. opted to hedge temperatures towards the cooler side of guidance. before a cold front races across the local area during the late afternoon through evening hours.
We've been monitoring a pesky axis of mid and high level cloud across eastern CO and adjacent far southwestern KS during this shift, which has kept sites in Morton, Stanton, Hamilton County in the lower to mid 30s through 0700 UTC, while areas farther east in the clear skies have dropped to the lower 20s in most cases. A weak leeside trough will push east this afternoon, and this will veer our surface winds from a light southwesterly direction to more northwesterly in the afternoon. Another fairly strong cold front will be pushing through western Kansas Sunday Night, but with the associated jet north across Nebraska, it will be another dry front for our part of the world.
149 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will remain offshore and large scale troughing will be over the eastern U. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
301 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 301 AM CDT The upper level trough axis will rotate overhead this morning, and isolated sprinkles/flurries will come to an end. Subsidence behind the upper level trough may produce a couple of holes in the stratus, but I think we will be a struggle to have clouds completely scatter out. Increased cloud cover will lead to warmer overnight lows, but breaks in clouds may allow temperatures to fall well below freezing in isolated locations. We may even see a few peaks of sunshine before the next wave/cold front arrives Sunday night.
A few inches of snowfall is likely in the high country as well through tomorrow evening. Cold air advection and winds pick up over the eastern zones Sunday afternoon as precipitation linger over the northern slopes of the high country.
300 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows the upper level low was over the U. This system will move slowly east into Ontario today allowing a brief period of ridging to build over the area. Satellite and observations showing a large cloud shield on the back side of this system and skies don't clear out until almost the center of the low level ridge axis.
303 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Clearing skies on the back side of the upper trough have allowed temperatures to begin falling by several degrees over the last few hours, a trend which should continue into the post-dawn hours, allowing most sites to hit or fall below freezing this morning. Should any sites not fall below freezing (main concern would be in central MO where cloud cover is more persistent), the Freeze Warning will be reissued for tonight; otherwise, all areas that experience below freezing temperatures will be done for the season with frost/freeze products. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon under more abundant sunshine and weaker cold-air advection, but below- normal highs near 50 are still the upper end of expectations this afternoon as cold air aloft continues to filter down the back side of the upper trough.
Upper level ridge will continue warm and dry conditions through early Sunday. The ridge and inversion weakens Sunday with passage of a weak upper level trough. Other than a few high clouds, the region will remain dry with the trough passage.
We see decent warming on Sunday, ahead of a cold front that moves into during the afternoon.
However, hourly T forecast is only about 1-2 degrees too quick to cool so still believe freezing temperatures are likely for the areas in the Freeze Warning. Otherwise, most people will only notice the afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. Sunday will be quite similar to Saturday except for temperatures being slightly warmer. Sunday morning temperatures will again fall into the 30s with the typical cold spots (Hill Country and Plateau) reaching the lower 30s. Later into Sunday night as the high moves into the Gulf, surface winds should shift to a more southerly orientation allowing dewpoints to increase.
328 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A cold front is about to enter far nw GA and is forecast to move across the area today and this evening. With increased winds tonight, freezing temperatures or frost are not likely.
With an upper level trof stretching from the Great Lakes region to the Gulf Coast states, and an upper ridge over the western states, northerly flow aloft will remain over the area tonight and Sat. The cloud cover will make the low temp forecast for tonight a little challenging. Dry weather continues on Sat, with warmer temps expected and the most noticeable warmup being over the eastern plains.
333 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region today. No significant changes were needed for todays forecast as rain will accompany a cold front across the region. The amplifying trough over the Central CONUS will shunt that front over the Upper Ohio today, but the jet-energy digging the trough is projected to slow progress and result in a brief period of split upper flow. The latest model trends are thus holding the moisture plume and precip over the ridges through Sunday, which is a deviation from yesterdays solutions. That same slowing trend is also retarding the encroachment of colder air over those same areas; thus, this mornings forecast issuance delays snow accumulation over the ridges until Sunday night, although some snow may mix with lingering rain over points west.
High pressure ridging will continue to bring temperatures around 10 degrees above normal today and Sunday. A mostly dry cold front will drop down from Montana bringing light snow and rain showers mainly along the Montana Divide and Wyoming border.
401 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 (Today and Tonight) Aside from freezing temperatures this morning, today will mark the beginning of another warming trend. Tonight, light winds from the south and southwest will help keep lows above the freezing mark, mainly from the mid 30s to around 40.
Model guidance has been suggesting single digit to around 0 dewpoints through much of the night combining with an area of high pressure moving through western Kansas which should keep the cold air in place, limit any cloud cover, and decrease the winds considerably. Saturday should bring slightly warmer temperatures as the longwave trough will move eastward into central Kansas. This will allow slightly warmer air to move in from Colorado and highs should near 60. As the area of high pressure moves into the Texas panhandle, we could have some mid to upper level clouds move back in to the region after the noon hour. The return of west winds and a warmer air mass will be the highlight for Sunday.
345 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Today and Tonight: The cold front has moved to the east of the area early this morning, but some post-frontal showers are continuing mainly for areas along and east of the Natchez Trace. Strong cold air advection will prevail through the day with high temperatures only climbing into the low/mid 50s.
424 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will move to the east of the region today.
West Texas Mesonet obs confirm that most locations are below freezing with the exception of the southernmost South Plains. With about 4 hours remaining before sunrise we still anticipate that most of the holdouts will reaching freezing this morning.
406 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 An area of low pressure will be the dominant weather feature in the short term. Tried to limit the mention the snow and freezing rain for now as the probability for mixed pcpn is low. Based on the amount of CAA behind the cold front, would not be surprised if temperatures slowly fall Sunday afternoon.
High pressure centered along the Pacific Coast will maintain a dry and mild northerly flow across the Great Basin through the weekend.
/issued 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Most locations have dropped below freezing early this morning, with the coldest temps across NW OK. Another cold front is expected by early Mon morning as an upper trough digs into the midwest.
349 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 The cold front has moved well east of the forecast area and much colder, drier air will continue to filter into the Mid-South today. Despite the drier low-level air moving into the region, scattered diurnal clouds are expected to develop as moisture aloft wraps around the backside of the upper-level cyclone. Highs today will be in the lower 50s for the most part.