Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1005 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Isolated to scattered light rain and unseasonably cool weather is expected through Saturday under upper troughing. More widespread rain is likely heading into the next work week with low pressure passage. The axis of a longwave trough over the Great Lakes will remain just west of the region today as the cold advection finishes in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Weak disturbances rounding the trough will provide enough lift to produce isolated to scattered light rain showers and drizzle through the overnight period. The trough axis will shift east of the region through the day Saturday, allowing dry air and increasing subsidence to slowly erode iso/sct light rain showers and area cloud cover.
The low ceilings and fog should mix out fairly quickly between now and Noon, and a partly cloudy sky with good visibility is still expected for the afternoon hours.
The rest of the weekend will be much cooler, around 10-15 degrees below where we have been the past few days.
/issued 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ West Texas remains under northwesterly flow aloft early this morning, with weak subsidence and subtle midlevel drying observed via satellite as weak upper level ridging continues to build overhead. Overall, the synoptic pattern will not change significantly today, with the aforementioned weak upper ridging progged to continue flattening slightly as the ridge axis moves overhead.
434 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 (Issued 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021) Today through Saturday: High pressure will take hold today keeping us dry. Clouds should clear tonight and with dry conditions and the cool airmass over us, temperatures should bottom out with more widespread freezing temperatures expected. High pressure will linger one more day on Saturday.
310 AM PDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A weak trough of low pressure will deepen the marine layer and bring cooler weather through Saturday.
725 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Aviation - Cool and showery today then rain late in the weekend as upper troughing prevails - Upper low will bring another cool day with some lake enhanced rain showers in northerly flow.
421 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A quiet night across the Mid South will lead to another nice fall day for the region as drier and cooler air settles in. This cool and drier regime will be short lived as a warm front is expected to lift northward across the region late tonight into Saturday.
527 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A dissipating cold front will stall out overhead and allow for lingering light showers in the Laurels and Alleghenies. High pressure will visit for a short time early Saturday.
The attention then shifts westward into parts of southeast Missouri between 4 am and 7 am CDT, as a broad warm frontal zone develops and works northeast into the WFO PAH forecast area. Throughout the day on Saturday and into Saturday evening, there will be a slow increase in lift as a very low amplitude mid- upper ridge moves through and east of the area Saturday night.
120 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A chilly day will be in store for the region with highs struggling to climb into the lower 50 and overnight lows not much better in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
(This evening through Saturday) A weak high pressure will continue to promote warm and dry weather across the region. Otherwise, look for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
KNEW does not have any mention of restrictions at this time, due to the warmer waters prohibiting fog formation. The low ceilings and fog should mix out fairly quickly between now and Noon, and a partly cloudy sky with good visibility is still expected for the afternoon hours.
High pressure will allow for one more day of warm weather across the entire area Friday. A small ridge of high pressure over Montana will be sandwiched between two larger, stronger upper-level troughs Friday. Mid to upper level clouds will increase throughout the day Friday, as moisture associated with the approaching Pacific trough filters overhead. Precipitation associated with the approaching trough will be primarily over Southwest Montana and along the divide Friday night.
158 PM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Tonight, an H5 ridge will start to makes its way east out of our CWA. This trough also brings a chance of precipitation, mainly west of the Laramie Range. The higher elevations will see snow showers while the lower elevations will see rain showers due to the mild, above-average temperatures of late.
108 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 For the 22/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail through this evening before a warm front begins lifting back northward into our airspace after midnight. This low stratus will slowly lift through the end of the period as the warm front continues to shift NE and clear the ELD/MLU sites just after 15Z Saturday. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue to trend more SE and increase between 5-10 kts with the warm frontal passage on Saturday morning. Ambient temperatures are also running some 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
A weak surface cold front has pushed its way across the area this morning, stalling out along the coast. This drier surface air gradually works its way across most of the area, eliminating the lower 70's dew points and bringing in middle 50's to lower 60's dew points for Saturday. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the lower 80's for most locations, and expect this to be the peak with a couple favored warm spots managing middle 80's. Tonight temperatures will drop quite a bit with ideal radiational cooling setting up featuring light winds, clear skies, and high pressure over the area. Coastal counties will feature slightly warmer temps in the middle to upper 50's and perhaps some lower 60's along the immediate coast.
The cloud cloud may begin to diminish some later this afternoon, as a trailing broad upper trough pattern traverses ewd thru the region. The cooler daytime conditions/light winds and little cloud cover should provide another good radiational cooling night tonight. It will be chilly again with lows dropping into the lower to mid 40s.
122 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Aviation - Cool and showery today then rain late in the weekend as upper troughing prevails - Upper low will bring another cool day with some lake enhanced rain showers in northerly flow.
The cold front is still on track to impact the Northern Rockies late this afternoon and during the evening hours.
Tonight Through Saturday Night An upper low is just north of the Great Lakes with an upper ridge over the Rockies. The upper ridge will shift across Arkansas Saturday night. High pressure and clear skies are expected tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and in the lower to mid 60s Saturday night.
301 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Much cooler across the area today thanks to yesterday's cold front. Current temperatures are in the mid 60s, and will gradually warm to the low 70s today. A low pressure to our northeast is allowing clouds to spill into our eastern counties which has caused temperatures to take awhile to increase at around the Tennessee River. Otherwise, temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s to upper 40s. By the weekend a warm front will lift northeast from Texas through the Mid-South.
A ribbon of dry mid to upper level air is then expected later this evening into the overnight, while an upper trough rotating around the deep upper low over James Bay remains to the north.
Adjusted the highs up 1- 2 degrees. With an upper level ridge overhead, dry conditions will prevail today. A flat upper level ridge will build over the area today with the flow aloft becoming more WSW. Meanwhile, a sfc lee trough will become established along the front range. On Saturday, upper level high pressure will be over the Central Plains States with a flat upper level trough over the Western U.
146 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The 500 mb pattern consists of a closed low in southern James Bay which is embedded in a broad trough over the ern U. with a trough off the west coast and a ridge in the Rockies. The closed low moves little this forecast period and keeps the upper Great Lakes in an upper level trough. An upper level low near James Bay will continue to maintain northerly to northwesterly flow over Lake Superior.
1052 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Wly flow aloft with deepening sfc lee trough.
These showers are associated with a slow moving upper level trough that will move into Idaho and Western Montana this evening. Rain chances will stay rather low across the east slopes of the Cascades through the day, but will be increasing for Wallowa County this afternoon and evening as the trough axis slides through and into Idaho.
This complex is catching up to the gentle upglide and actually enhancing as it approaches the lower Keys. The aforementioned upglide is in association with an inverted trough located between the Bahamas and Cuba that is slowly moving northwestward. This inverted trough is also bringing with it tropical moisture. Meanwhile, aloft a long wave trough is entering the west U.
/issued 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ A quiet night across the Mid South will lead to another nice fall day for the region as drier and cooler air settles in. This cool and drier regime will be short lived as a warm front is expected to lift northward across the region late tonight into Saturday.
Very low amplitude upper level ridging will move overhead tonight, while low levels will see a continuation of southerly flow. Upper flow will begin to back toward southwest on Saturday as the upper ridge shifts east of the region and as abundant upper level short wave energy moves across the Pacific Northwest to the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Regardless, the heat will be on again courtesy of some low level dry advection and an increased westerly, downslope component to the low level flow.
Discussion: Plenty of cloud cover remains this afternoon behind a cold frontal passage that brought rain and storms yesterday. The flow becomes more zonal tomorrow as high pressure pushes in from the southwest.
136 PM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 The latest satellite/upper-air analysis showed a low over southern Hudson Bay, a ridge over the lee of the Rockies, and a trough over the far western CONUS. For tonight, the upper ridge will move over the CWA as 850-mb flow increases from the south at 25-40 kt and the MSLP gradient tightens. The low clouds may persist for much of Saturday morning.
A cold front pushing through southeast Oregon this morning will cross into southwest Idaho this afternoon. Isolated showers this morning will increase in coverage this afternoon with passage of a cold front. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15kt, increasing to SW- SE 15-25kt Friday afternoon, shifting to NW 10-20kt behind the cold front. Cold front will bring gusts up to 35kt as it moves through region.
346 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 As of 19z this afternoon, showers have nearly exited the region, lingering along the Highway 20 corridor in northwestern IA. Skies are mostly clear as high pressure builds in, with temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s. Skies tonight remain mostly clear under the influence of a ridge, so expect more efficient radiational cooling.
1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas.
This resulted in lowering the highs just a bit more, given the trends in observations.
352 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A weak cold front will pass offshore overnight.
1157 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A dissipating cold front will drift south to around the Mason/Dixon line by tonight then stall out. High pressure will visit for a short time early Saturday.
227 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 In the midst of a high pressure system, expect dry weather today through tomorrow, save for a few sprinkles making their way through NE Iowa this afternoon. Because of these optimal conditions for widespread below freezing temperatures, issued a Freeze Warning for counties in SE Minnesota, NE Iowa, and SW Wisconsin between 6Z and 14Z. On Saturday, temperatures will be in the low 50s, with some areas of central Wisconsin dipping down to the high 40s. Northwesterly cold air advection will continue to decrease 850 mb temperatures to below freezing, as low as -6. That plus calm winds will maintain the cooler surface temperatures through the day. A low pressure system currently located in the central plains will begin to slowly creep northeastward.
A cold front will move southeast across area Tonight, with high pressure building from the northwest behind it. High pressure will be north of the region Saturday into Saturday night, with mainly clear skies. A broad range in low temperatures for Saturday night, with lows in the lower 50s inland SE GA, and middle 60s along the coast.
Water vapor imagery showing a sharp meridional wave over the central Rockies moving through a weakening ridge. Strong upper flow over the central and southern Rockies leads to quick lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado late tonight through Saturday night, with a sharpening warm front taking shape over central sections of Kansas. As can be expected in a forming warm front setup, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the location of the front and the character of the cold sector so have been a bit conservative with the drizzle mention but did keep a late afternoon thunder mention in southern areas in case the warm sector can destabilize enough.
/issued 751 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ An upper low meanders near James Bay, Canada today with a trough that reaches down to the Gulf coast and eases eastward. This will nudge a weak cold front toward the GA/FL border this evening. Atlantic high pressure extends across FL and most of the Gulf of Mexico with a prevailing easterly flow. 5 inches or less but with the far south on the high side. A weak cold front traverses the waters Sat and stalls across south FL Sun and into early next.
Additional showers/storms will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning in parts of north central OK, with the highest chances near the OK/KS border. Warmer temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the mid/upper 50s and low 60s across the fa.
Moisture lingers behind a cold frontal passage. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 72 51 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 70 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 46 68 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 66 48 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 0.
916 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Morning satellite imagery shows ridge over MT with an upstream trof along the Pacific coast. As the ridge axis shifts slowly to the east we will see increasing high clouds today & tonight. Otherwise, today will be dry with warmer than normal temps (highs in the 60s to lower 70s). JKL High pressure will maintain dry conditions over the area today, before a Pacific wave lifts into western Montana tonight, shifting the ridge axis to the east. Increased cloud cover and cooler conditions can be expected Saturday, as troughing continues to move into the region.
At upper levels corresponds a weakly amplified ridge just to the west of Nebraska. This is sandwiched between 2 strong areas of troughing in the midwest and the west coast.
Upper flow transitions from shallow northwesterly to shallow southwesterly through the period with weak surface ridging building in behind the exiting cold front.
148 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Isolated to scattered light rain and unseasonably cool weather is expected through Saturday under upper troughing. More widespread rain is likely heading into the next work week with low pressure passage. The axis of a longwave trough over the Great Lakes will remain just west of the region today as the cold advection finishes in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Weak disturbances rounding the trough will provide enough lift to produce isolated to scattered light rain showers and drizzle through the overnight period. The trough axis will shift east of the region through the day Saturday, allowing dry air and increasing subsidence to slowly erode iso/sct light rain showers and area cloud cover.
Dry weather will likely follow the front for the weekend with some cooler temperatures. Weak cold front is currently pushing into the western Midlands at this time with only a slight shift in the wind direction to the west-southwest, while winds ahead of the front remain more southwesterly. PWAT values continue to lower from west to east with the highest values over the eastern Midlands now, about 1. By tonight, the cold front will be east and south of the area and cooler/drier air will begin to filter in from the north. A flat ridge of high pressure will provide The Midlands and CSRA with dry weather this weekend with above normal temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
143 PM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 We remain underneath upper level ridging and mostly clear skies today, but as a Pacific trof moves inland we will see a gradual increase in mid and high clouds tonight. Pacific trof will lift thru western MT into southern Alberta on Saturday, and another wave will reach the central Rockies, as we transition to troffing and much lower heights. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal but we will see some cooling tomorrow.
226 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Tonight and tomorrow: Longwave troughing will continue to lift northeast with zonal flow aloft returning to the Lower Mississippi Valley by tomorrow morning. The one exception will be far southern portions of the area where the remnant cold front remains stalled. This will allow for a warming trend to return with dew points climbing back into the upper 50s to mid 60s and afternoon high temperatures in the low to upper 80s.
1114 AM MDT Fri Oct 22 2021 One more day of tranquil weather across SE WY and the NE Panhandle, as H5 ridging sweeps east across the Rockies. Saturday morning, the ridge axis will be east of the area, as the much larger trough continues to deepen along the west coast. The leading edge of the trough will be moving across WY Saturday.
307 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Lingering cloud cover is exiting the region to the east now with the upper trough pattern continuing to traverse ewd across the region. This is giving way to drier/seasonably cool conditions, as weak high pressure builds into much of the region from the W/NW. Increasing showers, along with a few tstms, return to the forecast late Sun night into Mon, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. High pressure out of the Plains states once again builds into the region briefly on Tue, before another perhaps more dynamic wx system/frontal passage sweeps thru the region mid week. Weak high pressure continues to settle into the region from the W/NW, generally maintaining VFR conds thru the period.
206 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A disturbance will skirt by to the north tonight with high pressure building back into the region for the weekend. Cold front that passed through the area this morning has made it east of the CWA this afternoon. Quite a spread in temperatures across the area this afternoon as persistent northwest/west flow continues to keep locations west of the Blue Ridge under stratus. Further east into the Piedmont, breaks in cloud cover have allowed temperatures to rise into the low 70s. Therefore, lowered high temperatures this afternoon a couple degrees for locations west of the Blue Ridge. No rain expected as high pressure begins to build in overhead. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today.
THIS MORNING Widespread frost and freezing temperatures this morning have brought the growing season to an end over the northern portions of the area. Pottawattamie County west to Douglas, Saunders and Butler Counties and points south are now considered "partially" susceptible to freezing as temps there have only dipped into the lower to mid- 30s, generally speaking. FRIDAY NIGHT Tonight will bring improved temps, but have kept sub- freezing numbers across far northeastern Nebraska, knocking them down a degree or two from this morning's forecast in part due to the quickly clearing skies. Weekend forecast is dominated by anomalously deep lee cyclone ejecting out of the southern Rockies.
Will keep rain chances across the eastern portions of the CWA Saturday before the upper level trough moves offshore the lower Texas coast Sat afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop offshore the lower Texas coast the rest of Sat afternoon into Sat evening. Will continue the coastal flood advisory for the lower Texas coast tonight as some minor coastal flooding is possible this evening through early Sat morning as astronomical high tides provide water levels near 1.
The short wave trough that brought today's rainfall was located over the Boise Mountains at that time as well.
859 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 A weak cold front will pass offshore overnight.
The stronger trough to the west is expected to lose its strength as it approaches our region overnight tonight. Models are hinting that a little bit of precipitation is possible with this disturbance, mainly over Phillips and Valley Counties in the morning - with a few of those hours possibly mixing with freezing rain; then some rain over Daniels, Roosevelt, and Sheridan Counties during the day and afternoon.
The stronger trough to the west is expected to lose its strength as it approaches our region overnight tonight. Models are hinting that a little bit of precipitation is possible with this disturbance, mainly over Phillips and Valley Counties in the morning - with a few of those hours possibly mixing with freezing rain; then some rain over Daniels, Roosevelet, and Sheridan Counties during the day and afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 72 52 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 69 51 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 68 51 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 66 48 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 10.
639 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 As of 19z this afternoon, showers have nearly exited the region, lingering along the Highway 20 corridor in northwestern IA. Skies are mostly clear as high pressure builds in, with temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s. Skies tonight remain mostly clear under the influence of a ridge, so expect more efficient radiational cooling.
KBYX is currently detecting and large swath of precipitation across the entirety of the offshore Straits of Florida and a few isolated showers in the Gulf Waters northeast of the Lower Keys. A weak inverted trough that has been shifting northwest from in between the Bahamas and Cuba during the day today has helped shuttle in the deep tropical moisture. Height falls were also sampled at all significant levels, thanks to the troughiness lingering around our area. From synopsis, high pressure will remain far off to the northeast in the Atlantic, with the associated ridge extending across central Florida.
As clearing occurs, patchy fog will form as temperatures fall into the low to mid 40s.
942 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Increasing dew points highlight the anticipated warm frontal boundary approaching our southwestern zones, with the 60-degree isodrosotherm drifting northeast through Deep East Texas into northwest Louisiana. /issued 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/ For the 23/00Z TAF update, a warm front will lift northeast from Texas, pulling lower cloud decks across the airspace by the end of the period.
/EC/ Tonight and tomorrow: Longwave troughing will continue to lift northeast with zonal flow aloft returning to the Lower Mississippi Valley by tomorrow morning. The one exception will be far southern portions of the area where the remnant cold front remains stalled. This will allow for a warming trend to return with dew points climbing back into the upper 50s to mid 60s and afternoon high temperatures in the low to upper 80s.
Previous Discussion: The axis of a longwave trough over the Great Lakes will remain just west of the region today as the cold advection finishes in the wake of yesterday's cold front. The trough axis will shift east of the region through the day Saturday, allowing dry air and increasing subsidence to slowly erode iso/sct light rain showers and area cloud cover.