Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Diffuse surface boundary mainly outflow has pushed down near a KBBD-KT35-KDKR line and could become a focus for more storms as s/w rotating around the upper trough provides more lift toward morning. 2" PW's, low/mid level troffiness situated across (mainly northern) parts of the region, and the typical daytime heating/seabreeze across southern parts. The second half of the work week into the weekend looks even warmer with above average temperatures and minimal rain chances across the region.
LOW TOPPED SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN THE COLD ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AND POSSIBLY DROP DOWN TO THE LOWER I-5 PASSES WITH SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 30 58 37 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 28 56 32 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 40 29 57 33 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 24 53 26 / 0 0 0 10.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER PEAK HEATING SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE A SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE 50S WITH THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 60S.
With this in mind am thinking the forecast soundings may be to conservative and have maintained a nice warmup into the lower 50s based on mixing the 925MB temps to the surface. However there is the possibility for the boundary layer to decouple and the usual locations dropping a degree or two cooler than the forecast has. Most of the low level lift will be associated with the front, which may manage to produce drizzle and possibly light rain in far east central KS during the late evening hours. This precip would occur before the temperatures fell below freezing so it should remain all liquid.
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO START IN BAKER COUNTY LEAVING LESS TIME TODAY TO ACCUMULATE ADVISORY AMOUNTS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 247 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
CLOUDS HAVE NOW NEARLY SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WAA AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. I WILL STICK WITH THE HIGHER POP/LOW QPF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON THIS EVENT.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 30S. SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES CRASH THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR INTRUSION OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CUT INTO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS. AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
A PACIFIC UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEFORE REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT AS IT MOVES OVER THE LOWER PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING COMING ACROSS THE REGION AND ADVANCING EAST WILL TURN AN EARLY DAY VARIABLE BREEZE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EASTERN TRAJECTORY OF THE 5H TROUGH AND POSITIONING OF THE GULF LOW/TROUGH SHOULD KEEP CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
1049 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 CURRENTLY - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS GENERATING FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM UPDATE - FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES NEARER AND SOUTH FLORIDA RECEIVES SOME WARMING. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL IN THESE AREAS AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS AND PLATEAUS AND ANYWHERE WITH SIGNFICANT SNOWCOVER. NW FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIKELY SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU THU AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SNOW REACHING THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS AS WELL.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Longwave upper TROF continues to dominate eastern North America early this morning with a NW flow over our region. This strongly favors the higher MAV MOS temps.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY IN SUPPORT OF WARMER MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
/ISSUED 318 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE THE RULE THIS EARLY AM ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE OTHER STORM SYSTEMS CAN BE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW OVER BAJA WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SUPPLYING US MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. THERE IS A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVER TEXAS BUT OVERALL POP WILL BE LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
839 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY TODAY. CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES AND RIDGE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL HELP TREND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE PERIOD.
519 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 136 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ AT 06Z, A COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED S TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SRN STREAM WAVE AND PLAINS TROF ADVANCING NE AND E ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE SRN STREAM WAVE INDUCES A DISTINCT SFC WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WHILE A STRONGER NEG TILT TROF ADVANCES OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS TO OUR NW.
Much of the high terrain north of Highway 12 and Interstate 90 is forecast to accumulate around 6-10 inches of snow by this afternoon, while lower elevations are going to have a wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain. The main trough with this weather system will pass over the region tonight with lower snow levels expected and additional snow.
THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT HAS LARGELY LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. LOCATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AND AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE BASIN REMAIN COOL. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT.
435 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016 A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN READINGS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR NOW HEDGED JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND 30S ALREADY ON OUR DOORSTEP IN GREGORY COUNTY AND POINTS WEST/SOUTH. WITH SOME AREAS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. SOME OF THE COOLER MODELS DO SHOW THIS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE DAY. THE BOTTOM BEGINS TO DROP OUT OF OUR TEMPERATURES AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. RELIED HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED AND ECMWF VALUES WHICH WERE A BIT COOLER THEN CONVENTIONAL BLENDED VALUES. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AT 850MB WHEN COMPARED TO 925MB.
529 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE UPPER KEYS TO THE MID 60S ELSEWHERE. AN EXPANSIVE ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WITH A RIDGE REACHING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THE UPPER TROUGH IS LAGGING BEHIND AND WILL CONTRIBUTE INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AT LEAST. GIVEN THE FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF SUGGEST BY ALL MODELS AND THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY HAVE INTRODUCED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET.
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO THE MID 20S. CONTINUING EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SKIRTS THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE CWA MID DAY THURSDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TO START THE PERIOD.
A DEEP DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW ABOVE 800 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW REMAINS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
A QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. BEING PUSHED EAST BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA/PAC NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY AND THU WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN-BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE EXISTS.
BUT MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR KCRP AND PERHAPS KALI AND KVCT LATE. AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES AND IMPACTS OF UPPER LOW TAKE HOLD. UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/COASTAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGHER WINDS WELL OFFSHORE.
COASTAL TROUGHING ABATED DURING THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. WHICH WILL IN TURN REINDUCE COASTAL TROUGHING. WHILE WARMER REGIME MOVING ONSHORE BRINGS TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOST MODELS SWEEP THE TROUGH OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRAWING THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG WITH.
ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR. WITH 15 TO 20 COMMON OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH PERHAPS UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR BUILDS EAST. THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR TO EXIST ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. JUST NORTH OF THE TROUGH WHERE FORCING/MOISTURE ARE A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER APPEARS TO EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
625 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED AT THE SFC OVER THE REGION. ALOFT THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT WITH AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER NRN MEXICO. RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. AND A BROAD-SCALE TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
MAIN 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL PASS EAST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE THE LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR TODAY AND THIS IS VERIFIED ON CURRENT SATELLITE WITH BACK EDGE OF LOW/MID CLOUD DECK NEAR MISSOURI RIVER AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
Updated at 639 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2016 Becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of light freezing drizzle and/or drizzle late tonight into Thursday morning. This is expected to remain the case as the wave moves through the Ohio Valley, thanks to high pressure at the surface keeping low level dry air in place.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA THURSDAY.
523 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 09Z. CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF THE TROF AND HAVE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING AS OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA NEAR THE TROF ATTM INDICATE MAINLY FLURRIES. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA WHERE THE BEST/ONLY FORCING WILL OCCUR. A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING AS SOME RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WERE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING THE MARINE LAYER WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT MARINE INVERSION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES THIS EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL FORCE THE NEXT PAIR OF TROUGHS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND DIG INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG THE RIDGES AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS AS EACH TROUGH SLIDES BY.
717 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY TODAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES AND RIDGE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH, KEEPING THE WIND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH. /ISSUED 626 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ROLLER COASTER WEATHER BETWEEN WET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUES HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO MEXICO FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND WILL HELP TO GENERATE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT. WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NORCAL AND NARROWING FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING DOWN TO THE CENTRAL COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME TULE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
Highs this afternoon should be slightly warmer than yesterday, as surface flow from the south brings warmer air from South Texas. As surface moisture continues to increase, lows tonight will be warmer, mainly around 40. A couple of cold fronts, along with a series of upper-level troughs, will provide create swings and the potential for rain.
620 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. DUE TO THIS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY WARMER THAN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 09Z. CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF THE TROF AND HAVE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING AS OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA NEAR THE TROF ATTM INDICATE MAINLY FLURRIES. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA WHERE THE BEST/ONLY FORCING WILL OCCUR. A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING AS SOME RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
401 AM MST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL IN THESE AREAS AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS AND PLATEAUS AND ANYWHERE WITH SIGNFICANT SNOWCOVER. NW FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIKELY SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU THU AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SNOW REACHING THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS AS WELL.
/ISSUED 251 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ A cooler airmass have overspread parts of northeast OK and northwest AR tonight. with a dissipating cold front analyzed across southern OK into southern AR. Increasing low-level warm air advection will result in even warmer conditions for Thursday. Improving moisture will also bring a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by Thursday night as a cold front pushes through.
455 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016 High pressure centered right over central Illinois as of 200 am is expected to drift off to our east today allowing southerly winds to draw warmer air back into the forecast area. A warm front will be making its way east into the Midwest today bringing an increase in clouds and possibly a period of light snow or flurries across the north, roughly along and north of I-74. Some rather significant warm air advection will be taking place tonight and Thursday, as the western upper ridge quickly breaks down and the strong wave currently just offshore of the West Coast tracks into the Plains by Thursday evening. Temperatures tonight not expected to change much, with the lows early in the evening and temperatures creeping upward much of the night.
626 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ROLLER COASTER WEATHER BETWEEN WET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUES HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO MEXICO FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND WILL HELP TO GENERATE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
This is expected to remain the case as the wave moves through the Ohio Valley, thanks to high pressure at the surface keeping low level dry air in place.
A LARGE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO ALBERTA WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVERHEAD. STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING IS EXPECTED AS A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
/issued 250 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ A series of upper level troughs will move quickly across the country the next several days.
A QUICKLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTL PLAINS THIS MORNING BE REPLACED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BY EVENING THEN BY HEIGHT FALLS LATER TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WILL FAVOR WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY AND NEAR MOS CONSENSUS TONIGHT.
643 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A BREEZY COLD FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KCDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THAT IS WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY ARRIVE. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY CURRENT DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ACTS TO SHARPEN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FA TODAY.
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. H5 RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
335 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMAIN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
1158 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016 Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the lowlands and snow to the mountains.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER AREAS LACKING SNOW.
225 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A CYCLONE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK EARLY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/ VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 08-12Z OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS HIGHER MOISTURE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW PACK. QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE U. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL THEN PASS LATE TNT BUT WITH A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING FROM SD TO WRN MO BY 12Z SAT. THE OVERALL LIFT IS VERY WEAK ACROSS SRN WI WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AVA AND HEIGHT RISES/THICKNESS RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON WSWLY WINDS.
POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.