Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The big upper low circulating over Quebec and New England will slowly migrate to a position just south of Nova Scotia over the next few days. Despite that movement, the general long wave trough axis will remain over eastern Canada. The ridge axis over the Midwest nears slightly but is suppressed to the south a little as well due to an equally strong trough sliding across the upper Great Lakes. Even then, the position of the trough and steering flow should keep most of the precip to our west/south. Temps Wed start cool in the 30s to lower 40s, and rise to the 60s for all but the highest elevations of the north. The increasing clouds Wed night will keep mins above freezing over all the area for the forseeable future.
400 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 As several lobes of energy rotate around the large upper low currently over Arizona and Sonora, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across central/western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas.
High pressure is located at the surface near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Aloft a ridge is over the northern gulf and north central gulf coast. Over the next few days the ridge at the surface and aloft will shift east while the aforementioned upper low moves into and across the plains.
340 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Mid/upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build eastward into the region, and model consensus is for the axis to align over the state late in the short term period.
328 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 A slow moving upper level ridge will continue to bring warm and dry weather to the Midsouth again on Wednesday.
Predom sunny skies prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this early Tue morning, as temp trends rebound into the lower/mid 60s from their earlier lows in the lower/mid 50s. Upper ridge axis over the wrn Gulf states will continue to gradually translate ewd later today into tonight, thereby helping to maintain the seasonably warm pattern well in place across the region. Temps this afternoon look to climb into the lower/mid 80s for most locations, which is near 5-10F above normal for this time of the yr under continued mostly sunny skies.
Maliawco Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a ridge axis running from northern California through western Montana and turning north into Alberta. To the south a closed low remains over the desert Southwest. Farther west a closed low lies over the Gulf of Alaska.
However, subsidence within the high pressure regime should keep the remainder of the forecast area dry with another sunny day in store tomorrow.
as this system moves through and is expected to hold temperatures up into the lower 40s to lower 50s. which with the highest rain chances across the southern metro.
/issued 501 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Southwest flow aloft will continue across the region today, ahead of a large upper low currently situated over the northern Gulf of California. As the upper low begins lifting northeast towards the southern Rockies this evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and far West Texas, with some of this this activity possibly reaching western sections of the forecast area late tonight.
The coverage of storms will increase late in the week as a series of low pressure systems move along the nearly stationary front.
An unseasonably strong low pressure system will affect the area through Wednesday. Even cooler temperatures today and tonight with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances into tonight. Dry conditions with much warmer temperatures will return late in the week. A wide variation depending on proximity to the low and the convective nature of the showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon (fancy talk for hit- and-miss). Partial clearing from the southwest later tonight as the low continues to trek northeastward into New Mexico.
210 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a a mid/upper level ridge from nw MN through nw Ontario between cutoff lows over Quebec and w cntrl Manitoba rsulting in nw flow through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a trough extended from cntrl Manitoba through MN into ern IA. Today,look for increasing mid clouds as the trough over MN only slowly edges to the east an area of 295k-305k isentropic lift spreads across the area. Otherise, with weak WAA and greater cloud cover temps should climb into the low to mid 50s. Tonight, although models suggest a shortave trough moving through WI late tonight could bring some light pcpn to Upper Michigan, the more consistent drier CMC/ECMWF/GFS were preferred compared to the NAM given the marginal moisture available and weak forcing.
A ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Northern Rockies bringing plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures for the next couple of days.
245 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Upper level low pressure will weaken atop the region tonight into late week with an overall decrease in clouds and shower coverage.
339 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 An omega blocking pattern will slowly shift eastward tonight and tomorrow. The quasistationary boundary then lifts slightly northward as a warm front on Wednesday after a new wave of low pressure has developed along it farther to the west. High temperatures on Wednesday should be similar to today but a few degrees cooler due to increased cloud cover and scattered afternoon convection, especially across the northern part of the CWA.
1214 PM PDT Tue May 9 2017 The low will wobble around and bring possible precipitation and thunderstorms into early midweek for the Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
1137 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern UT, with weak high pressure over ND. Upper level analysis shows a cutoff low over southern AZ, with persistent ridge remaining across the MS River valley region. Current surface map shows high pressure across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. Shower activity will end across much of the area tonight as northern stream trof slides through the northern plains, with showers lingering into Wednesday afternoon along the Nebraska border. Upper level ridge builds into the northern plains for the last half of the week.
The morning activity should wane some into at least early afternoon tomorrow, with redevelopment once again farther west near the dryline and upper low.
304 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 What a tough cloud forecast for tonight! Initial thoughts are some thinning/clearing late tonight with high pressure still ridging over northern Michigan. There are already hints on the thinning of the clouds so have hence forth decided to go with the cooler guidance, but not nearly as cold as last night. Wednesday will see moderating temperatures once again, reaching into the mid 50s to low 60s as the airmass continues to modify a bit warmer each day. High Impact Weather Potential: None Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: While by no means warm, a milder weather regime is expected as recent and persistent upper level troughing retreats out of the region (coldest anomalies rotate back northwest into Canada).
155 PM PDT Tue May 9 2017 The low will wobble around and bring possible precipitation and thunderstorms into early midweek for the Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
153 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Low pressure will help edge a warm front close to the Great Lakes, producing rain showers oriented NW to SE, from southwastern Michigan down into southern Ohio. Upper level wave exiting Minnesota with a southeast trajectory early this morning, as southeast Michigan continues to be under influence of the massive upper level low over Eastern Canada. Farther removed from the clouds/normally colder Thumb region stands the best chance of seeing frost and temps reaching near freezing.
Impulse over South Dakota will overtop the upper level ridge tonight. with the higher instability south of the forecast area.
Webcams show some fog has developed over Watertown to Summit, otherwise high pressure is moving in today, with a dry low level airmass that is quite evident in BUFKIT soundings. Additionally, there will be a weak trough rotating around an upper low over Canada which will move across the area early Wednesday.
Initially most of our forcing will be in association with the sfc front and overrunning warm moist air north of this front especially during the overnight hours tonight and Wednesday night when the low level jet strength is maximized. The second important feature is a big cut off upper area of low pressure over the desert southwest that will track into the southern high plains by Wednesday night. The upper low should kick off some thunderstorms over eastern Colorado this evening that will track northeast and could move into our western forecast area late tonight primarily after midnight. Instability lessens north of the front and the highest likelihood of severe weather will be near the Nebraska/Kansas border southward into north central Kansas.
315 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast AZ, with weak high pressure over northeast SD. Upper level analysis shows a cutoff low over southern AZ, with persistent ridge remaining across the MS River valley region. A few thunderstorms have also developed over the higher terrain of eastern WY, moving eastward. Building ridge behind passing low will settle across the region late week, with dry conditions and a warming trend.
However, a weak backdoor cold front currently in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba sinks across the northern border around 00z Wednesday, into south central ND around 06z, then to our southern border by 12z Wednesday. This is related to the position of the backdoor cold front and cyclonic flow aloft as the GFS and SREF stall the boundary in close proximity to the ND/SD border and snaking back into the far southwest.
A weak upper ridge will provide dry weather tonight. An upper low will bring a slight chance of showers Wednesday, mainly to the coast and mountains.
331 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure over the area will push slowly east tonight and Wednesday.
Gulf high pressure remains strong, with lower pressure over the Southern High Plains interacting to maintain a gradient conducive to stronger winds. /issued 413 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid to upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and a mid to upper level low over Baja region this morning will slowly move east through the period. The persistent low and high level cloudiness will keep high temperatures today and Wednesday near normal and the low temperatures tonight several degrees above normal.
The mid/upper level low positioned over the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico will gradually lift northeast across the desert southwest into the Texas Panhandle through the period. Overnight, convection may develop over the high terrain of NE Mexico as a weak impulse ejects from the main upper low/trough. However, an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop across inland areas as this upper low lifts northeast and weak impulses pass around the main system. Temperatures overnight will stay in the low to mid 70s as winds stay elevated and cloud cover lingers across the region. Tomorrow will be warmer especially across the Brush Country, with highs ranging from the lower 80s along the coast to the mid 90s across the Rio Grande Plains.
344 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 A large area of high pressure will continue to remain in place over the region and it will keep dry conditions over South Florida through the end of the work week. The sky will be mostly sunny each day with high temperatures in the mid 80s over the metro areas and up to the lower 90s across interior sections.
An upper level ridge is building over the forecast area today and will remain in place through at least midday Wednesday. An upper level ridge will remain over the area today. This ridge will shift east of the area tonight.
1132 AM PDT Tue May 9 2017 The low will wobble around and bring possible precipitation and thunderstorms into early midweek for the Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
Increased threat of scattered light showers just a bit per current radar data with best coverage occurring across the higher terrain where some wet snowflakes may mix in above 1500 feet. There is some glimmer of light tonight into Wednesday that the deep blocking low pressure system over the North Atlantic will give way and so our upper level low will slowly depart to the east.
221 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 The slow moving low pressure system that has been stuck over our region, will finally start to pull away. Pattern continues with large, slow moving closed lows seperated by narrow ridges. Forecast period begins with the area under a narrow ridge between a low off the New Englad coast and a low developing over the Ohio valley.
High pressure ridge then sets in over the CWA tonight into Wednesday.
Small MCS rolling southeastward across northern Illinois into west central Indiana, along the edge of the 850 mb warm front, where MUCAPE's were in the vicinity of 1000 J/kg at 2 am. The surface warm front is just southwest of I-74, and is not expected to make much additional progress before an area of low pressure moves southeast out of Iowa later this morning. Will need to watch the temperatures closely across the far northern CWA, as there is potential for significant high temperature adjustments if the front gets further north before the low arrives with its trailing cold front.
Another warm spring day is in store as short wave ridging builds over the area. This along with southerly winds will again push afternoon highs into the lower 80 at most locations. Additional convection will develop across portions of the Plains later Wednesday and move east into our area Wednesday evening as the upper low tracks into the central Plains.
556 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Wednesday. Rain chances return with late week low pressure and continue into the weekend. Clouds will slowly increase on Wednesday in advance of low pressure developing in the Plains, but the weather will remain dry through the day. Highs will be slightly warmer, approaching normal values. As low pressure pushes into the Ohio Valley, rain chances will increase through the period.
343 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Upper level ridge of high pressure will remain spread across the Central Gulf Coast through Wednesday night. Normal max temps typically run in the lower/mid 80s. Saw no reason to deviate from that with ridge in place.
256 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 A weak high pressure area, along the Gulf coastal area and Tennessee Valley, was keeping it mostly sunny, warm and dry across the Mid-State this afternoon. Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 70s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower and middle 80s elsewhere.
319 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 The warm front continues to work its way north across the region slowly.
The Pulley Ridge buoy reports seas of 1 ft in the southeastern gulf. Pleasant weather will continue this week as deep- layered ridging keeps subsidence in place across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic.
However the more numerous showers are relegated to the higher terrain area of NM/CO/TX and OK panhandles. The upper low now over southern Arizona will lift into the southern High Plains Wednesday night.
An strong upper ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dominate the weather pattern across central Alabama. The upper ridge will suppress cloud development and result in mostly clear skies tonight and into Wednesday. Temperatures have climbed into the middle 80s this afternoon and temperatures will be several degrees warmer Wednesday afternoon, with some places across south central Alabama reaching 90 degrees.
Weather conditions should be quite decent for flight through the forecast period at cha and tys with little possibility of a ceiling below ten thousand feet as stable air; compliments of an extensive ridge over Middle America, remains in place over these terminals. There is a corridor of moist and slightly unstable air just north of a nearly stationary warm frontal boundary across Southwest Virginia.
250 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 A warm front will remain north of the region through midday Wednesday with mid level anticyclonic flow and lack of forcing keeping it dry through 18z Wednesday.
330 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017 Thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, as expected, from YNP into the western mountains, and are now moving off the higher terrain to the valleys and basins to the lee of the mountains. Anticipating some areas of patchy fog given the low and mid-level moisture in the area, along with some clearing out by 6am as ridging starts to develop. Then conditions should improve after 9am Wednesday as the high pressure builds to our west over Idaho. Wednesday will thus see mostly clear skies with slightly warmer temperatures and a north-northeast wind as the main upper level low traverse northern NM.
347 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Dirty ridge complete with patchy areas of cumulus and stratocu across area. Aftn highs once again into the lower to mid 80s, with a repeat expected once again Wednesday.
High pressure at the surface will gradually slide east of the region during this time, with the ridge axis building over and just east of the CWA through Wednesday afternoon. With moisture subtly increasing through the period, low and high temperatures during the period will be a degree or two warmer, compared to previous days. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 60s, and highs Wednesday afternoon will climb into the mid and upper 80s.
Upper low will move across northern New Mexico during the day and into the evening. Not much instability north of the upper low so threat for severe storms is low.
A deep upper level low is progged to slowly make its way northeast towards the central plains tonight and tomorrow. Weak embedded waves in the mid-level flow pass over the area ahead of this trough tonight and early tomorrow morning which could help act to develop some scattered thunderstorms near the previously mentioned boundary tonight into the early morning.
639 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will push slowly east tonight and Wednesday.
145 PM PDT Tue May 9 2017 A warming and drying trend will be in store through midweek as high pressure briefly builds across the region.
One more very warm day today as upper level ridging remains over the area, with highs in the low 90s across much of the Valley. Cooler Wednesday as the ridge is displaced by an approaching upper low. This will bring a shift to onshore flow and a Delta breeze cooling the Delta, the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys (about 10 to 15 degrees cooler).
CAMS a little more aggressive with coverage and persistence of precipitation across the northern CWA and additional development along the vort tail back toward northeastern NE, but even some of the lower resolution solutions follow generally along the path. Still enough inconsistency in solutions to keep from hoisting widespread categorical pops for many area on Wednesday despite the strong frontogenetic forcing in well-defined jet entrance, especially with considerable north/south variations and complexity of the lower level dry air.
The stronger winds will advance eastward behind the trough today and gradually subside tonight. Current surface analysis indicate a line of widely scattered rain showers associated with a trough extending from northern St. The low relative humidity values early this morning will rise during the morning hours behind the line of rain showers/trough. It will be clear to partly cloudy tonight as an area of high pressure builds into the region.
341 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Upper level low pressure will weaken atop the region tonight into late week with an overall decrease in clouds and shower coverage.
This moisture is being advected northeast ahead of a weak upper trough and a weak surface front. Wednesday will be partly cloudy and much warmer as winds become southerly. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Models continue to show persistent NW flow aloft as large ridge continues to dominate Rocky Mt-Central U.
242 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017 Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase tonight as the upper low moves from southern Arizona into western New mexico overnight. Diffluent flow aloft and favored development along and north of the warm front will promote increasing convection overnight with likely pops forecast. Another area for showers to focus along will be the upper trough axis from the panhandle into the northwest sandhills. Cloudy skies, low ceilings and shower chances will limit highs to only the mid and upper 50s eastern panhandle and north central, while southwest and central Nebraska should reach the lower 60s. In addition, north and west of a closed low tracking from northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma panhandle, a deformation band will develop.
337 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Wednesday. Rain chances return with late week low pressure and continue into the weekend. Clouds will slowly increase on Wednesday in advance of low pressure developing in the Plains, but the weather will remain dry through the day. Highs will be slightly warmer, approaching normal values. As low pressure pushes into the Ohio Valley, rain chances will increase through the period.
The stationary upper low that has been over Baja California and the Sea of Cortez the last 36 hours or more finally appears to be picking up some eastward momentum. Later tonight will see the potential for another round of storms, probably more widespread than the evening round as the parent upper low ejects across northern Sonora toward southeastern Arizona. The middle part of the forecast period still looks to be dominated by a tranisent upper level ridge.
Meanwhile an upper level low was located across far northwest Mexico/southeast Arizona. This region will also be closer to the approaching upper level low's dynamics. Tonight, things change as the upper level low moves closer to our area and a jet streak around the southeast side of the low moves closer to our area providing better dynamics for our area. The upper level low will be in northern New Mexico by Wednesday afternoon and this should provide enough dynamics for more thunderstorms to develop along any boundary (ie.
Have added isold pops to include tstms over portions of ne TX, although even there the high based clouds will not support much precip reaching ground.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast.
The more robust surface based convection should develop along/east of the dry-line just southwest of the area by late afternoon and along the effective cold front just north of the area.
1122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Arctic high pressure will build southeast across central South Dakota overnight and down into the Southern Plains Tuesday. The latest guidance shows temperatures ranging from the upper single digits across our far east, to the lower 20s over the far west.
1240 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 A clipper type low pressure system will move into the area overnight and remain through Tuesday evening, bringing light snow to the region. High pressure situated off the New England coast will slow the progression of the surface therefore prolonging the period of light snow over northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills.
427 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 An upper level low will slowly track across the lower Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure will build south of the region mid to late week. Upper low will move east across the lower Great Lakes with the trailing positively tilted trough translating across the forecast area through the period.
302 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Arctic high pressure was located over the northern and central plains at 08Z while an upper trough axis stretched from the lower Great Lakes into southwest Kansas.