Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Monday will start out dry and mild with temperatures a little above normal with decent ridging maintaining its hold.
(Today through Tuesday) This AM at the surface, ridging is present over ERN Conus, centered from the Great Lakes to Maine with N to NE flow into C AL. Ridging will remain in control over the weather pattern across C AL through the short term with the ridge center dipping a tad further SWD through the short term.
602 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The blocking pattern that has been in place for the past few days will begin to break down today.
This is thanks to a weak area of high pressure at the surface combined with last night's fropa. On Tuesday, an occluded upper level low moving into the Northeast and a cold front associated with it should sag south across the peninsula.
(Now through Tuesday) A central states upper ridge shifts a bit eastward and weakens somewhat during the period (in response to a system advancing into the northern/central Plains) while an upper trough remains generally over the eastern states.
We expect little to no impacts through Tuesday evening as the upper level trough continues to shift east across the plains. As the trough shifts across the region showers will be isolated to scattered at times, with a chance of a few rumbles of thunder. The cold front begins to approach the region Tuesday afternoon, with shower activity expected ahead of the frontal boundary. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible at times Tuesday afternoon, as CAPE values are sitting on the lower end around 250 J/kg.
Upper level low pressure and associated low will continue to slowly slide eastward further into the Dakotas through the day today. By Tuesday morning, the upper low should be centered over the Dakotas.
747 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Tonight) A cold front will move south of the area Today, as high pressure builds from the north northwest. The enhanced gradient between the front and the high will produce a surge of winds down the coastal waters this afternoon, leading to gusty winds at the coast. Weak inverted troughing near the NE FL coast could produce a few afternoon showers there. The high will remain to the north through the night, with gradient winds continuing provide gusty conditions at the coast. Highs Today, will be well below normal, with highs ranging from the lower 70s over coastal SE GA, to the upper 70s over inland NE FL. Lows Tonight will also be below seasonal averages with lows from the lower 50s for inland SE GA, to the mid 60s for NE FL.
Upper level ridging will build into the region Tuesday and persist through much of the remainder of the week.
545 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) Ridging aloft will continue to result in each day/night being ever so slightly warmer than the previous day/night. With ridging aloft, upper level winds are coming out of the southwest. The additional cloud cover does mean that Monday night's temperatures will be a tad bit warmer with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s.
Sunny skies, light winds and above normal temperatures are expected again today, with highs likely to be a degree or two warmer than those seen yesterday. Temperatures are already running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, supporting the current forecast highs.
610 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today) Mostly clear skies persist across the TN Valley early this Monday morning, with temps generally in the lower to mid 50s. With high pressure anchored to our north and upper ridging building to our west, northerly flow will continue to limit the moisture return over the region keeping skies mostly clear through the day. Highs will be a a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, as temps warm into the mid to upper 70s.
416 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Issued 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022) Today through Tuesday: An upper level blocking pattern will mean that high pressure will continue to provide stable, dry, and pleasant conditions today with a few passing high clouds. Temperatures will balmy owing to a ridge aloft. Quiet conditions will continue tonight will slowly increasing high cloud cover as the ridge slowly leans over to the east. Tuesday, we should see filtered sunshine and dry conditions but slightly warmer temperatures as the ridge axis aloft moves overhead. Highs will be in the low 70s.
627 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 The forecast period starts with a closed upper low centered to the northwest of the Black Hills and southwest flow over the Central Plains. Through the day, the low is expected to drift to the southeast, into the Black Hills. A cold front will move into the Nebraska Panhandle, making its way across the western third of the state through the daytime hours.
There may even be some possible spin ups of smaller areas of low pressure over the Gulf of California and off the California coast.
High pressure will bring dry weather through the weekend with above normal temperatures across the interior.
A broad trough through the intermountain west combined with an unseasonable moisture pool will bring a better chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. As the trough slowly shifts into the northern and central Plains, ensembles are leaving a residual weakness in the flow over our area Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday will be partly sunny and even warmer as southerly winds increase.
The persistent upper level low that has been over the area and has worn out it's welcome like that annoying uncle is finally moving, now up into Montana. As for temperatures, with the northwest flow, most areas will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday but nothing unusual for early October. The low then moves east into the Dakotas on Tuesday as ridging begins to fold over into Wyoming.
(Issued 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022) Today through Tuesday: An upper level blocking pattern will mean that high pressure will continue to provide stable, dry, and pleasant conditions today with a few passing high clouds. Temperatures will balmy owing to a ridge aloft. Quiet conditions will continue tonight will slowly increasing high cloud cover as the ridge slowly leans over to the east. Tuesday, we should see filtered sunshine and dry conditions but slightly warmer temperatures as the ridge axis aloft moves overhead. Highs will be in the low 70s.
The shower and isolated thunder threat will be slow to shift east through the day as a slow moving upper level low pressure drifts on the western High Plains. By tonight some slightly cooler air aloft will spread across the area and allow for some minor elevated CAPE values of 100-300 J/kg. This should support some isolated thunder as well as allow the showery activity to shift east into areas with dry air still in the lower levels.
548 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today through Tuesday) This AM at the surface, ridging is present over ERN Conus, centered from the Great Lakes to Maine with N to NE flow into C AL. Ridging will remain in control over the weather pattern across C AL through the short term with the ridge center dipping a tad further SWD through the short term.
High pressure will continue in control of our wx pattern early this week and result in mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. A large diurnal temp swing is expected today (and even more so tomorrow) as high temps will reach the low to mid 60s after the chilly start to the day given the dry airmass in place and ample sun.
Upper low/remnants of Ian continues to spend over the mid-Atlantic through the short term period with NW flow over the region.
Temperatures thus far have risen into the lower 80s after falling into the mid 70s overnight. Troughing along the Mid- Atlantic continues in the wake of Ian with areas of high pressure flanking on either side. This has kept the trough in place for several days now which locally is keeping a pressure gradient such that our winds have remained generally northwest to north. In addition, have extended the coastal flood statement for the Lower and Middle Keys. As ridging builds across the eastern U. As this ridge further builds through the week, expect breezes to freshen to moderate to fresh from the northeast to east.
Mostly sunny and dry conditions with temperatures trending warmer throughout the week. An upper level low located over Montana continues to track north-northeast as a high pressure ridge continues to move into and influence the forecast region.
Demplifying ridging axis will still be west of the area tomorrow, with neutral advection and no substantial rise in midlevel heights signaling little change in temperature from 24-hrs prior (today).
Temperatures will warm through the week as high pressure builds over the area and limits the night through morning low cloud pattern. This week high pressure will be dominating and with the help of weakening onshore flow will push temperatures upward, though not excessively so.
Overnight temperatures tonight and tomorrow night are expected to range from the lower to upper 60s inland with areas closer to the coast staying in the upper 70s.
However, this will mostly have an effect on our low temperatures, with Tuesday morning lows expected to be just a few degrees warmer than we've seen the past few days.
A persistent high pressure center well to our northeast will continue wedging its southwest flank down into the Four State region through tomorrow night, resulting in light and very dry east to northeast low level flow. The prior seasonally cool air mass will continue slow modification and high temperatures will trend maybe a degree or so warmer in most areas through tomorrow, but still in the quite tolerable ~mid 80s. Great radiational cooling again tonight and tomorrow night will allow for widespread lows in the 50s - although slightly warmer tomorrow night than tonight.
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Latest surface analysis had a ridge just to our northwest that will remain dominant today. To the east, a mid level trough is situated across the Mid Atlantic region while upper ridging is slowly pushing east across our area. While it will still be dry, minimum afternoon RH values won't be so low, with the lowest expected in the Delta. Between this and the lower wind speeds through the day, will continue to not advertise a fire danger risk for today. /28/ Mid and upper level ridging will help continue this dry pattern across the ArkLAMiss.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northerly flow aloft are settling in over the area. Then the rest of Tuesday for all of our forecast area should be quite pleasant with highs in the low to mid 70s in the Valley and light north to northwesterly winds.
1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) Ridging aloft will continue to result in each day/night being ever so slightly warmer than the previous day/night. With ridging aloft, upper level winds are coming out of the southwest. The additional cloud cover does mean that Monday night's temperatures will be a tad bit warmer with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s.
The upper level pattern features a closed low across the Northern Rockies and another closed low across the Mid-Atlantic. Ridging is in place between these closed lows across the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the Great Lakes.
Expanding our scope, there remains troughing along the Eastern Seaboard wedged between two ridges on either side. This looks to persist through Tuesday night before a new upper level trough approaches from the west and finally pushes everything to the east. This in turn will allow for a large and expansive area of high pressure to slide southeast from the Great Lakes region and settle in across the southeastern U. As this high pressure slides towards our area, it will slowly drag a front across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the week. As ridging builds across the eastern U. As this ridge further builds through the week, expect breezes to freshen to moderate to fresh from the northeast to east.
145 PM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022 A benign pattern with above-average temperatures will persist through the end of the week as high pressure dominates. It will be an excellent week to be outside! Persistent high pressure will dominate the pattern over the western US through at least the end of this week. On the bright side, the weather is fantastic to get outside and enjoy those fall colors! -Whitlam Generally light winds (<15 kts), clear skies, and VFR conditions throughout the Sierra and western Nevada as high pressure remain over the region.
Any convection that pops up behind the trough axis will experience a more southerly storm motion as the upper-level and steering flows becomes more northerly. As this trough continues to dig to the southeast and upper-level flow across the forecast area becomes more northerly, we will see things begin to dry out overnight and into tomorrow with PWat values falling below 1.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Continued ridging aloft will result in warm afternoon temperatures and cool to mild nights in the short term.
1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging across West Central Texas will result in warm and dry conditions.
Portions of north central South Dakota have seen a wind shift to the northwest behind a weak/slow-moving cold front. Compared to 24 hours ago, the upper low circulation has moved from central Montana to eastern Montana, still off to the northwest of the CWA. Between tonight and Tuesday night, there will be chances for scattered, to perhaps numerous, showers off and on while the main dynamics/forcing of the upper low continues a rather slow translation southeast across the region. The cold front is modeled to evolve into an inverted surface trof on Tuesday. The upper level pattern will be dominated by a ridge over the western CONUS and northwest flow across the northern plains states.
139 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Most recent radar and observations show cold frontal boundary north/south oriented through central SD. Chances for showers will persist in the region through Tuesday as the upper trough axis, which currently sits over eastern Montana and Wyoming, will slowly move through the northern plains today and Tuesday. Chances for precipitation tapers off later Tuesday as the upper low fill and shifts east of the forecast area.
A high amplitude blocking pattern, often referred to as an omega block, will set up across the western US and Canada. 70 percent of solutions suggest the blocking pattern will continue, with warm and dry weather continuing. In contrast, the other 30 percent, highlight a deepening trough of low pressure bringing a shot of cold Canadian air, potentially lowering snow levels below 5,500 feet along the divide. Cumulus cloud activity will quickly diminish after sunset tonight as high pressure strengthens.
Warmer and drier conditions expected through much of this week, with low clouds not extending quite as far inland by midweek.
304 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) The main feature for the short term will be an upper level low that stalls out off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This is creating some persistent cloud cover over south and eastern Georgia which will likely limit high temps today to the low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s with some 40s across the higher elevations of NE Georgia.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure regime will keep things quiet through Tuesday night. Upper ridging with H5 heights currently near 585 dm is forecast to weaken some over the next 36 hours.
Through this evening the upper low will shift east and with cold temperatures aloft, weak CAPE should develop and allow for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southwest and south central. Scattered showers should also continue in the southeast through the evening, until the WCB stream of moisture shifts east with the upper low.
On Tuesday, highs will generally be in the lower 80s across the entire area.
Most of the precipitation will be on the higher terrain of west central Kansas where the low level dry air layer is not as deep. A cold front will pass across Kansas Tuesday.
Recent surface analysis shows high pressure centered in the Great Lakes region and a coastal low off the mid-Atlantic coast, which does contain Ian's remnants. This pattern supports the low level northeasterly flow across the area and this is helping to maintain the dry continental air mass in place. In addition, a band of moisture along a weak cold front associated with the coastal low is expected to drop southward across the area on Tuesday but will not include any mention of PoPs in the forecast for now as confidence is low in anything measurable.
Dry air mass will remain in place with high pressure centered to the north of the local area.
High pressure will stationed overhead tonight, so another favorable radiational cooling setup for upper 30s-low 40s outside of Chicago and patchy mid 30s readings. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and some high clouds filtering in from the northwest Tuesday night should keep low temps a bit above tonight/early Tuesday forecast lows, in the low-mid 40s outside of Chicago and upper 40s-low 50s in and near the city.
High pressure will keep dry conditions over the area for the next several days. Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal under the influence of the ridge.
Latest surface analysis had a ridge just to our northwest that will remain dominant today. To the east, a mid level trough is situated across the Mid Atlantic region while upper ridging is slowly pushing east across our area. While it will still be dry, minimum afternoon RH values won't be so low, with the lowest expected in the Delta. Between this and the lower wind speeds through the day, will continue to not advertise a fire danger risk for today. /28/ Mid and upper level ridging will help continue this dry pattern across the ArkLAMiss.
236 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 At the surface, high pressure stretches from southern Ontario southwestward into eastern Iowa. Discussion: Ridging aloft continues to bring quiet weather to the region. Low temperatures forecast to be in the mid 40s overnight with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Winds will become more southerly tomorrow at 5 to 10 MPH so do not expect there to be any fire weather concerns despite the low relative humidities.
1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Regional radar shows similar patterns to what was previously discussed in the last update, with the TROWAL rain shifted further south with the rotation of the upper low and showers moving into the James River counties of North Dakota. Upper level low pressure and associated low will continue to slowly slide eastward further into the Dakotas through the day today. By Tuesday morning, the upper low should be centered over the Dakotas.
Synoptically, an upper-level ridge has been amplifying along the West Coast, and will set up residence overhead for much of this week (and beyond). Will note -- temperatures will gradually climb by mid/late week to the low/mid-90s Valley-wide, resulting in pockets of moderate heat risk.
At the upper levels, there is a cut-off low over the Mid- Atlantic, and another one over the northern plains. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s around the lake, to upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere. While forecast soundings show the upper levels moistening up a bit, there should still be plenty of dry air in place in the low and mid levels, so any precip will be limited during the afternoon. High temps will be a few degrees cooler than today, only reaching the low to middle 80s.
1212 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Today through Tuesday) This AM at the surface, ridging is present over ERN Conus, centered from the Great Lakes to Maine with N to NE flow into C AL. Ridging will remain in control over the weather pattern across C AL through the short term with the ridge center dipping a tad further SWD through the short term.
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS 216 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 An upper level low will continue to slide east through the Northern Plains with a few weak disturbances moving around its periphery during the short term forecast. This will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area this evening. Decreasing cloudiness is then expect tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will start out from a southerly direction this afternoon shifting to the northwest behind the cold front by tonight. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s with highs tomorrow in the low 70s.
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue for the next 7 days, as an upper trough axis remains close to the U.
This will allow for another night of decent radiational cooling and slightly cooler than normal morning lows in the low to mid 50s. It will also help maintain decent insolation of our dry airmass Tuesday and result in slightly warmer than normal afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
(Through Tuesday) Dry north and northeast flow will continue through Tuesday thanks to a slow-moving low pressure center just off the U.
147 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Dry conditions will continue throughout the week as high pressure moves in accompanied by a slow warming trend.
230 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (Issued 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: Low level anticyclonic flow and mid level ridging will continue to keep things quiet into Tuesday night.
221 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 After a relatively wet morning over the area the Upper Level Low that was responsible for this morning's rain will exit to the east of the area tonight with shower chances ending in our eastern zones by about midnight.
Temperatures running warmer than forecast, which increases confidence that a large area will dip below 20 percent RH. The forecast period starts with a closed upper low centered to the northwest of the Black Hills and southwest flow over the Central Plains. Through the day, the low is expected to drift to the southeast, into the Black Hills. A cold front will move into the Nebraska Panhandle, making its way across the western third of the state through the daytime hours.
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Really impressive H2O imagery over the CONUS showing a trough- ridge-trough pattern from the East Coast over to the western coast. Ian is making up the trof running up the New England coastline while back West there is a double barrel low pattern. The northern closed low that has been responsible for our active weather is finally getting picked up by the northernly flow and crawling eastward through the Northern High Plains.
Despite generally dry ground and a feed of dry air at the surface from the high to our north, will go ahead and account for the possibility of river valley fog, especially in the Kentucky, Licking, and Cumberland River basins. Although the high will weaken slightly tomorrow, it will continue to control our weather and give us another mostly sunny autumn day with north breezes.
High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through at least the upcoming weekend.
1237 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Pleasant morning across South Florida with dew points in the low to mid 60s. An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Ian linger over the mid-Atlantic which high pressure sits to the northwest of the region. A trough extends from the low down the Atlantic waters off the eastern seaboard into the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a continental airmass to the west of the trough will allow temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 80s in the afternoons with overnight lows in the 60s inland and the 70s closer to the coast.
A gradual warming trend and dry conditions are expected through the week as high pressure builds over the region. As such, temperatures are a few to as much as 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago as a ridge of high pressure aloft strengthens. That said, most observations are in the 60s near the coast/bays to 70s inland where temperatures are likely to peak in the low/mid 80s this afternoon. The mid/upper level ridge will continue to strengthen through mid-to- late week resulting in the a gradual warming trend.