Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front otherwise will move through KABI around 15Z. This will allow a cold front to push south through West Central Texas this morning. Going for highs around 3 degrees cooler than GFS MOS high temperatures today, and closer to the cooler NAM. Winds of 15 to 20 mph will make it feel cooler. The moisture/inversion is very shallow, and is indicated to break between 9 AM and 10 AM, with surface heating and as gusty westerly winds move in ahead of the cold front. Surface ridging will build directly over the Big Country by 6 AM Monday, bringing good radiational cooling. While GFS MOS guidance appears to have allowed for strong radiational cooling with lows in the lower 40s, can not really rule out a few readings in the upper 30s in protected low lying areas.
Areas of fog are expected to develop later tonight with increasing moisture ahead of a cold front.
A LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME IS WELL UNDERWAY -- BUT HAS HAD LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OHIO VALLEY WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- LIKELY ENTERING NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 09/03-06Z AND EXITING NE ALABAMA BETWEEN 09-12Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. MODELS NOW SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE MID /UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL CROSS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND DROP BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
529 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2015 A broad area of low pressure over the plains will slowly shift to the east through the day today. This will bring a cold front through the Ozarks late this morning into early this afternoon. Confidence is on the low side however and any drizzle that does develop will be short lived. The cold front will make its way thorough all of the Ozarks by late this afternoon with cooler temperatures filtering into the area along with clearing skies for much of the overnight hours.
608 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST.
ALL OF THE HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS, AND I'VE ALSO ADDED SOME WIND ADVISORIES TO THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
A CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW FLURRIES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATION BUT WITH VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE. THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. NW GRADIENT WINDS SLACKEN AND BACK TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TONIGHT THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WORKS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN LIFTS THROUGH NE UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NE UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND IN SE GA ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE SFC TO MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FL. WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ENABLE A RAPID WARM UP WITH MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SHOULD HAVE AN ATLC SEA BREEZE BY THE EARLY AFTN KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES COOLER THAN INLAND BY A FEW DEGREES. BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS THERE WILL BE GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. SW TO W WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
KEEPING A MAJORITY CLOUD DECK TO THE S OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL AND N-CNTRL AR TODAY.
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND IT BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ON MONDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REACHING THE EASTERN GULF WATERS LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THIS HIGH TRACKS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 413 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES TODAY WILL SLACKEN SOME AFTER 09/00Z AND BEGIN VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HELPING MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING. BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE AND POSSIBLY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTED TO SEE BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK. AND ONLY SEE A POTENTIAL SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWTOOTH ZONE AND THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY ZONE.
A broad area of low pressure over the plains will slowly shift to the east through the day today. This will bring a cold front through the Ozarks late this morning into early this afternoon. Confidence is on the low side however and any drizzle that does develop will be short lived. The cold front will make its way thorough all of the Ozarks by late this afternoon with cooler temperatures filtering into the area along with clearing skies for much of the overnight hours.
/ISSUED 425 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2015/ A cold front currently dropping south through the Texas Panhandle this morning will move through the area today, expected to reach Midland/Odessa by late morning and continue to push south toward the Rio Grande through the afternoon.
549 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2015 Low pressure area and associated cold front will drop into the state this morning and then continue to move southeast through the day and then out of the CWA by late this afternoon. However, still lots of melting of the snow is occurring, and that is putting more moisture into the lower layers, so will keep patchy fog in the north third of the CWA, just for the morning hours. After that, the early part of the week looks quiet, as high pressure drifts across the Mississippi Valley. While the upper level pattern flattens out for a bit early this week, a ridge continues to be projected to build along the West Coast mid to late week.
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ESPECIALLY AROUND DENVER WHERE WE COULD WIND UP WITH AN ANTICYCLONE IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE MORE STABLE. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AND IT FLATTENS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOG WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT AS TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING ON MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THEN PROGRESS OFFSHORE WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
355 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015 A wave of abundant moisture is translating through the region this morning, dropping rainfall below 5000ft and snow at the higher elevations.
526 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHICH SAW READINGS SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S IN SPOTS. THANKS TO THIS COOLER AIRMASS.
WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
1036 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WEST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. NW GRADIENT WINDS SLACKEN AND BACK TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TONIGHT THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WORKS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN LIFTS THROUGH NE UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NE UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
609 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 THE FOCUS IS ON THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SO THINK THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS MORNING AS PCPN TYPE BEGINS TO MORE FAVOR SNOW BY LATER THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO KINL AND KBRD LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH SE OK/WRN AR BY 00Z MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY ESCAPE SEEING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
425 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2015 A cold front currently dropping south through the Texas Panhandle this morning will move through the area today, expected to reach Midland/Odessa by late morning and continue to push south toward the Rio Grande through the afternoon.
737 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
527 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2015 A weak cold front will drop through the area today but will lack a push of really cold air behind it. Cooler temperatures move in for Monday with broken stratus spreading in from the north, although temperatures will still be above average.
643 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 AVIATION A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT WINTERY PRECIPITATION TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY COOLER STARTING AIRMASS THAN SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR ZONES TODAY AND MORE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SHOULD FALL.
1100 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE WINDWARD EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AND SIOUX COUNTIES INTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. USED THE WET BULB MAX TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE NAM TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY AS IT SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FREEZING RAIN AREA THE BEST. WEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SLEET/SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MILD TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THE PASSAGE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY ALONG OKC. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTH FLOW AROUND 10 KTS AFTER FROPA. STRATUS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOWARD THE GULF COAST. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 51 53 34 / 20 50 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 46 54 31 / 10 60 40 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 49 50 32 / 20 60 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 46 54 29 / 10 70 60 20.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING CENTERED OVER THE STATE TONIGHT.
GIVEN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE FALLEN TO/BELOW FREEZING AND ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. AS WELL AS REPORTS OF ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
328 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
The flow aloft will back somewhat this afternoon and should promote a much drier column, resulting in fewer clouds and much warmer temperatures across West Central TX.
106 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
A significant warming trend will begin on Friday, as broad upper ridge expands east into Texas from the southwestern states. Given the extent of increase in 850mb temperatures (by 10-12 deg C), with dry air and generally clear skies, we are going above MOS guidance with the highs.
448 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE STUBBORN WESTERN STATES RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RATHER STRONG TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO OUR CWA AND WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY FEBRUARY NORMS. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING SOME WARMING OVER THE UINTA BASIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH BUT MOISTURE PROFILES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOW THIS THINNING SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE WILL USE TODAYS HIGHS AS A BASE TO START BUT APPEARS TOMORROWS READING MAY EVEN BE A TAD WARMER.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS REALLY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING WITH 03Z TEMPERATURES ALREADY FLIRTING WITH FREEZING. THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND OUR COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LATE LAST NIGHT REALLY NEVER MADE IT EAST OF OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES IN NE TX. YOU MOVE EAST OF THESE COUNTIES AND WE ARE SEEING 7-8 DEGREE TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS WITH MUCH HIGHER CLOUD CEILINGS AND OF COURSE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A STRONGER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS RIDGES REMAIN A BIT MIXED OVERNIGHT. WITH INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW.
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC TAFS WITH TWO FM GROUPS MAX AND LIGHT N WINDS SHIFTING TO SW AROUND 06/15Z PER SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES MOVING EWD. RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 06/24Z. SFC WIND SHIFT FROM N TO SW IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 06/15Z AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD OF MID STATE. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HELD AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SFC WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
500 MB RIDGING WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REGION AS THE TROFFING SHIFTS EAST MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN STATES. THE NAM AND ECS GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPS A BIT QUICKER VERSUS THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS AND WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER TEMP SETS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AND SEVERAL SITES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ST LOUIS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE HIGHS FOR TOMORROW.
1037 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 A WARM DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PLAINS TODAY AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE 60S. OVER THE REST OF THE REGION I EXPECT 70S MOST OF THE PLAINS EXCEPT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE M/U60S WILL PREVAIL.
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH SETTLES FURTHER EAST. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO C TX. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT DUE TO THE RIDGING PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S DUE TO WEAK CAA UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SHOW THE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MUCH OF THE WARMER AIR WILL BE OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE COOLER AIR BRINGING A STRONG INVERSION. MOST OF THE MODELS POINT TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WAA BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. THE ISSUE WILL BE IF IT WILL BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.
/39 DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS AGAIN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I94 IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
1256 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SHALLOW/MOIST NEAR SFC LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
1220 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS ARE ALREADY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
431 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SINK INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY.
1217 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PINE TREE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
1002 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 VISIBLE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S TOMORROW.
A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
1143 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAA REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT AS THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF SEEMED TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT. AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME MINOR MELTING. WHICH ARE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM MOS INTO SAT. RAW MODEL TEMP CONSENSUS IS SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NAM MOS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER END OF FOR MINS AS WELL. THE QUESTIONS BECOME HOW MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR BELOW 3KM SO NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IS ANTICIPATED EVEN THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND ALLOW FOR THE BEST RAD COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. A MORE PRONOUNCED RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SAT NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING 45-50 DEGREES.
141 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAP HOLDS THESE CLOUDS IN LONGER THAN THE NAM AND WITH HOW TOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE HANGING IN WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER TREND OF THE RAP SO HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PART OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE AND HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON HOW THICK. OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY.
405 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
243 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN AND SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A COL PATTERN. NO LONGER ARE INDICATING FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED AND NAM IS TOSSED OUT. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/SREF ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW. THUS GIVING THE NORTHLAND MORE OF A WINTRY MIX/SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT.
253 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
206 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 NO REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT-TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. MANY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOSTLY RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH N-LY WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE E-SE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE REGION.
High pressure was directly over the state of Missouri, and will translate east this evening. By Saturday, a large upper level ridge will pass overhead, resulting in highs in the 60s and 70s.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY WITH SOME 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND NEARLY FULL SUN. REACHING THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TO MID 40S NORTH.
ALL THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL HAMPER THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES BUT CERTAINLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
338 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2015 As high pressure continues to shift to the southeast this morning, southerly winds will return, bringing in warmer weather. Models in good agreement with dry and warmer forecast today. High pressure remains in control for tonight and tomorrow ahead of the next wave moving into the Midwest.
A COOL AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENN AND MISS VALLIES BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. THE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS GA AND WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST AND POCKETS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE WARMER WATERS AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.
RIDGE ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL SHIFT OF WIND FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.