Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main corporate is an upper/mid level ridge stretching across Central and Southern U. As we go into the weekend, ridging slides to the east and offshore while an upper level Canadian trough travels south to southeast into the Northeast. High pressure over the area will keep pleasant boating conditions across the Gulf water over the next few days. An area of low pressure will approach the region going into the weekend and increase rain chances, winds, and seas. This is as high pressure ridge stays in place during this time. Later in the period, a low pressure system will increase rain chances.
Leeside trough developing across eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming this morning. Dewpoints in the low 20s near Casper and Gillette at 2AM this morning. GFS low level winds continue to increase this morning as the leeside trough continues to deepen across northeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. as QPF amounts this high could result in flash flooding and mud slides out that way. Still have 1-3 inches of snow for the highest peaks out there.
grees warmer than last night. Heights will continue to rise this afternoon and tonight as upper ridging builds over the region. The trough developing to our west will continue to bring south to southeasterly winds through the overnight. Kept lows in the 50s overnight, and temps should rebound quickly tomorrow morning as the upper ridge moves into MN. Strong mixing from south winds and the thermal ridge over the area will keep highs well above normal. With recent over-performance of area highs, continued temps on Tuesday on the higher side of the ensemble spread, in the 80s to low 90s. A slower moving cold front moves into the valley Wednesday morning increasing the chances for showers and storms across the area.
355 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Regional radar and satellite imagery shows midlevel clouds and some sprinkles moving northward out of western Kansas this morning associated with an upper low centered over NM/CO. This cloud cover will likely keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. On Wednesday, we will see more of the energy from this wave move into the area as another broad trough pushes across the western CONUS. By Wednesday evening, a cold front will push into the Sandhills, providing a focus for scattered to widespread convection.
Latest data seems to be trending toward the lower stratus so will nudge fcst cigs down.
Deep layer ridging will remain in control with mainly offshore flow outside of the sea-breeze zone.
342 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front is positioned from central IL to northern OH early this morning. Meanwhile, N/S upper level ridging over the middle of the CONUS will shift slowly eastward today through Wednesday. The frontal passage should help to keep our temperatures in check despite rising geopotential heights, with warmer temperatures remaining to our west and southwest.
(This evening through Tuesday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning over eastern New Mexico. High res model guidance shows additional shower and storm development this afternoon across the Lower Trans Pecos. For tomorrow, the upper level low is forecast to move northward into Colorado before becoming absorbed into the mean 500mb flow. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) As the first system exits the region to the east, another upper- level trough will dig across the western US by late Wednesday.
As the 850mb thermal ridge moves over the FA today, 850mb temperatures look to be about 4 to 7C warmer than yesterday (when highs were in the mid 70s to low 80s). Did stay on the warmer side of guidance, with mainly mid to upper 80s today. The 850mb thermal ridge weakens and slides a little east of the FA on Wednesday, as the southerly 500mb flow sets up.
This will allow highs to range from the upper 60s to low 70s, with cooler readings along Lake Huron with the onshore flow. Conditions will otherwise remain very benign across Se Mi through the rest of the work week as a strong blocking pattern emerges across NOAM. Se Mi will be within the mid level confluence between high amplitude ridging over the wrn Great Lakes and a deep upper low across ern Canada/New England. Although the medium range model solutions and their ensemble members diverge this weekend, there is an overall consensus of the blocking pattern breaking down.
223 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 High pressure will slide farther off the coast tonight. A cold front will cross the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms.
615 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 (Today and tonight) Another hot late September day is anticipated with highs in the low to mid 90s deg F (10 to 15 deg F above average).
A weak backdoor cold front remains stalled near the Iowa/Missouri border and will waffle around northern Missouri over the next few days before mixing out. A few other features of note from east to west are: 1) a trough starting to deepen near New England, 2) a steepening ridge over the central conus, 3) a low pressure system drifting out of the Four Corners, and 4) a trough pushing inland along the northern Pacific Coast. The slow moving New England trough and the incoming western trough will result in the amplification of the ridge over the central conus. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening along a cold front approaching from the west.
A robust cold front will move through the region today bringing a few showers to northwestern and east-central Nevada today along with much cooler temperatures. A strong cold front will move through the state through today resulting in a 20 degree drop in temperatures from yesterday. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s across northern and central Nevada with slightly warmer temperatures south of US-50. Temps will remain a few degrees colder than average Wednesday night, especially near the UT state line, as the trough continues east.
507 AM PDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A fairly strong upper level trough continues to move across the forecast area this morning with showers continuing across the Oregon Cascades and generally north and west of the Bear Creek portion of the Rogue Valley. Of note, the freezing level on the morning sounding launched here from the Rogue Valley/Medford International Airport was 6300 ft MSL. East of the Cascades, however, widespread killing frost is expected, with the lowest temperatures of the late summer to early fall season, thus far, expected.
425 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Today through tonight: remarkable inland moisture transport associated with a warm front is being observed over the Lower MS Valley region with the 00z LIX raob indicating a 12 hour increase in precipitable water from 0.
/issued 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/ Closed upper low over northern New Mexico early this morning will continue northeast into eastern Colorado where it is expected to weaken into an open trough later today. The GFS and ECMWF are nearly identical with having an upper trough with more of a positive to slightly negative tilt while also having a slightly closed low. This would place West Texas under decent upper level diffluence as a cold front pushes southward.
636 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front stretched from Marion to Meadville into the Southern Tier of New York early this morning. A ridge of high pressure then extends southward from Canada by this evening, then lingers at varying strengths into the weekend. A cold front stretched from Marion to Meadville into the Southern Tier of New York early this morning. The cold front should reach central OH into central PA by evening with high pressure ridging southward in its wake. The high pressure ridge from Canada will increase in strength through tonight with dry conditions expected tonight. Highs today are expected to be cooler with them ranging from the mid 60's north to the mid 70's south. lakeshore areas should remain in the lower to mid 50's. Ridge of high pressure takes control of the region on Wednesday.
302 AM PDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A trough of low pressure will move through the region tonight bringing gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
/Issued 215 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/ The main challenge this forecast will be rain/thunder chances in the coming days as we finally get a shift from the persistent hot/dry pattern to a relatively cooler/wetter regime.
850-925mb temperatures are 1-3C warmer by late afternoon across the forecast area, and with a greater southerly component in the low level flow, would expect modest mixing, supportive of warmer temps and lower dew points than blended guidance. Mid-range of the forecast period looks cooler and unsettled than recent days, as prominent upper ridge axis shifts east toward the western Great Lakes, and broad upper trough stalls over the Rockies.
741 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue through part of the day with a crossing cold front. Building high pressure behind the exiting cold front should then return dry and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the week. Some redevelopment is expected along the cold front as it drops southeastward this morning, though coverage should not be as extensive as this morning's activity. An upper low is progged to persist across the NE CONUS through the period, as a ridge builds to our west from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest and Canada. Model ensembles indicate the upper low remaining across the NE CONUS through much of the weekend, as the ridge to our west gradually breaks down and flattens.
With strong WAA in the low to mid levels, lapse rates should decrease significantly. This along with building high pressure above the WAA will hinder any precipitation chances along the boundary. This area will likely remain north of the weak thermal boundary blocking some of the WAA, and keeping temperatures in the low 80s. Very little is expected to change tomorrow, as the WAA continues to supplant ridging aloft. High pressure will build near the surface as well, weakening the pressure trough and the boundary. High pressure at the surface in combination with ridging aloft will eliminate any chances for rain and should even hinder cloud growth leading to mostly clear conditions.
624 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 High pressure will remain just offshore today, as a cold front approaches from the north. This dry cold front will push through the region Wednesday morning followed by high pressure building in from the northwest through this weekend. High pressure will sink slightly to the SE today as a cold front approaches from the north. Moderate SW winds will continue right ahead of a mostly dry cold front tonight. There is a small chance that some leftover convection along the front may make it to the NOBX before dissipating, but most of the high res guidance keeps the area dry, so have taken out any chance of precip overnight.
Quiet weather will persist through the short term as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes slowly moves east. The main culprit is an amplifying ridge that'll stretch from the Central Plains northward into central Canada.
1000 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 High pressure will build into the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of the cold front today which will promote fair and dry weather for most areas for much of the week, but cool conditions. In the wake of last nights cold frontal passage. high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will drift north to James Bay while taking firm control of our weather.
735 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the cold front today which will promote fair and dry weather for most areas for much of the week, but cool conditions. Cold front exiting the Lower Lakes with showers and thunderstorms ending from NW to SE this morning. After that, drier air and subsidence from high pressure builds in and will bring about increasing sunshine from north to south by this afternoon.
305 AM PDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A few showers will linger over the northern Sierra early this morning, otherwise dry and warmer weather lies ahead. Upper trough and surface cold front are moving to the east early this morning and have nearly exited NorCal. Another batch of mid and high clouds will move over the southern half of the forecast area this morning as another vort moves through the base of the trough. Dry northerly flow will develop over NorCal today as the trough shifts east. Otherwise, dry and warmer weather is expected across the region through the remainder of the week.
552 AM MDT Tue Sep 28 2021 An upper trof moving through the Pacific Northwest will push a cold front across Montana today. Wednesday should see temperatures 20 to 30 degrees cooler as the upper trof moves across the state. A weak blocking pattern develops, keeping the trof in the vicinity of Montana through the weekend. The current warm airmass will be replaced late this afternoon as a cold front moves across the region.
617 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in control of the regions weather today. The upper trough will remain across the southern plains through the end of the week and into the weekend.
/EC/ Today through tonight: remarkable inland moisture transport associated with a warm front is being observed over the Lower MS Valley region with the 00z LIX raob indicating a 12 hour increase in precipitable water from 0.
Early this morning a cut off low was located over the southern Rockies while a trough was moving into the Pacific Northwest. A ridge was located across the central Plains while a trough was moving across the Great Lakes region at 0730Z. An axis of moisture extended southeastward from the closed low across southwest Kansas into southern Arkansas. The advance of the western trough will eject the Rockies low east and north into the Plains tonight as it is absorbed into the mean flow and weakens.
654 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A weak cold front across the Great Lakes will drop south through the Ohio Valley through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will push south into the region late this morning and reach the Ohio River by late afternoon. Behind the front, clouds will decrease and high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and relatively low humidities will allow the low temperature tonight to drop into the 50s, and also provide high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday.
A cold front is currently moving slowly through western Montana this morning, just having passed through Kalispell and Missoula in the past hour. The highest accumulations are still anticipated through central Idaho and near the Idaho border in northwest Montana, where 0.
655 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Summary: Continued dry with above normal temperatures before rain chances return late week and linger through the weekend with temperatures trending cooler. High pressure was in place across the Great Lakes this morning. An area of fog and low ceilings developed over the Twin Ports and up the North Shore with winds off the lake, but winds have slowly been becoming more southerly as the ridge axis shifts to the east.
658 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will cross from north to south across the Mid Atlantic region today into tonight.
The upper ridge will shift east on Wednesday as a cold front trails down from Canada.
420 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Summary: Continued dry with above normal temperatures before rain chances return late week and linger through the weekend with temperatures trending cooler. High pressure was in place across the Great Lakes this morning. An area of fog and low ceilings developed over the Twin Ports and up the North Shore with winds off the lake, but winds have slowly been becoming more southerly as the ridge axis shifts to the east.
Regional radar and satellite imagery shows midlevel clouds and some sprinkles moving northward out of western Kansas this morning associated with an upper low centered over NM/CO. This cloud cover will likely keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. On Wednesday, we will see more of the energy from this wave move into the area as another broad trough pushes across the western CONUS. By Wednesday evening, a cold front will push into the Sandhills, providing a focus for scattered to widespread convection.
1004 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 It was another cooler start this morning with temperatures as low as the mid to upper 60s around daybreak. (Previous Discussion) Favorable boating conditions as high pressure maintains dry conditions across the region.
High temperatures today will still be cooler than yesterday, though still a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 70s across south central Lower Michigan to around 80 degrees into west central Indiana. Slightly cooler as a shallow, weak cold front currently bisecting across southern portion of CWA, continues to slip southward into the Ohio Valley by this evening. Close to normal temperatures through the workweek as ridge shifts eastward to the Lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic. Persistent subsidence inversion and nocturnal surface based inversion to limit mixing heights, placing a damper on high temperatures, especially northeast CWA where depth of cooler, post frontal airmass is greatest.
/issued 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico will be suppressed slightly south as 500 mb low pressure maintains itself over the Four Corners area.
711 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 - Blocking pattern with fair weather this week Upper low digs in across the Northeast CONUS next few days with narrow upper ridge axis building just west of the central Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure center over eastern Canada feeds dry easterly flow into Lower Michigan.
135 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Aviation - Blocking pattern with fair weather this week Upper low digs in across the Northeast CONUS next few days with narrow upper ridge axis building just west of the central Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure center over eastern Canada feeds dry easterly flow into Lower Michigan.
ridge. 20 At the beginning of the forecast period, the CWA is situated comfortably under a high amplitude ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico to western Ontario. This ridge is positioned between a well developed upper level trough over New England that dips as far south as the Carolinas and another deepening trough to the west over the Four Corners Region.
1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 (Today and tonight) Another hot late September day is anticipated with highs in the low to mid 90s deg F (10 to 15 deg F above average).
148 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Another quiet night and day as ridge gradually passes. Flow on back side of ridge should keep winds up a bit tonight but the usual valleys, especially in Wisconsin, will see decoupling and hence, the risk for patchy valley fog once again. Tomorrow looks like one of the warmer days of this stretch with +2. Highly amplified flow is forecast to break down later in the week as upper trough over central Rockies gradually shifts to the northeast.
125 PM PDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Low pressure trough passing through the region is allowing for cool and breezy conditions across the forecast area today. High pressure will build after today, leading to a warming trend through this weekend. Much cooler afternoon highs are occuring across the forecast area after a cold front passed through the region this morning. Ridging begins to build over the area tomorrow afternoon, which will aid in temperatures rebounding back a couple degrees.
Tonight and Wednesday High pressure will bring dry weather and well above normal temperatures to the western Great Lakes region through the middle of the week.
Select spots on the Buffalo Ridge even reached 90. Lows are forecast near 60 across most of the MN portion of the CWA while western WI should be cooler in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy across the MPX CWA by Wednesday afternoon and highs are forecast in the low to mid 80s.
1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Summary: Continued dry with above normal temperatures before rain chances return late week and linger through the weekend with temperatures trending cooler. High pressure was in place across the Great Lakes this morning. An area of fog and low ceilings developed over the Twin Ports and up the North Shore with winds off the lake, but winds have slowly been becoming more southerly as the ridge axis shifts to the east.
To the west, sharp pressure rises are observed behind the cold front. Slightly better odds for rain showers tomorrow morning and afternoon as an upper low over Colorado slowly pushes more moisture into the area, but regardless, rain amounts will still be minimal.
248 PM MDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Numerous showers and weak thunderstorms continue to drift slowly across the higher terrain this afternoon. There should be continued precipitation across the northwest portion of our forecast area, close to the pivot point of the 500mb vort max as our cutoff low gets absorbed by the larger scale trough to our west. Much cooler weather is expected tomorrow as a cold front passes through the region during the morning hours. Temperatures over the plains will remain in the 60s, with 40s to 50s likely in the higher terrain. PoPs will increase across the high country and into the I-25 corridor during the afternoon.
259 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A seasonably mild day has taken shape across the TN Valley, as high pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern. A fairly amplified ridge remains to our west, keeping northwesterly flow aloft. Temps will bottom out in the lower 60s, and with dewpoint depressions in the 0-2 degree range, patchy fog is possible during the predawn hours. There are some slight discrepancies among the short range models as to how far east this ridge moves on Wednesday. Latest guidance suggests that the axis of the ridge will bisect the forecast area, with southwesterly flow over our western zones and northwest flow over our eastern zones.
206 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A weak cold front will drop south of the region through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the week. Cold front currently between KDAY/KLCK and KILN with some trailing stratus and cold air advection cumulus affecting mainly Central Ohio. Behind the front, clouds will decrease and high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and relatively low humidities will allow the low temperature tonight to drop into the 50s, and also provide high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday.
Slightly cooler temperatures will return for late this week into the weekend.
Temperatures turn cooler overnight, with patchy fog and areas of frost. A Pacific cold front has advanced across much of the forecast area, resulting in cooler temperatures and an increase in west-northwest winds. The upper trough lifts out of the area Wednesday morning with drier westerly flow following across the region.
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Another seasonably warm day across the region as breezy south/southeasterly winds work to mix down warmer low/mid level temperatures. A fair amount of the daytime hours may end up being relatively quiet as deep troughing to our west slowly progresses eastward. Better vort lobe begins to lift northeastward and interact with advancing cold front across areas west of the James River by late afternoon and should result in scattered showers and storms. The main vorticity center to our west is slow to lift north as the overall trough begins to contract.
A ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Southeastern United States, which continues to facilitate the advection of a continental airmass into our region. During the overnight hours, the onshore flow will act to keep the Atlantic coast in the low to mid 70s with the northern portions of our CWA (Lake Okeechobee region) dipping into the middle to upper 60s.