Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 736 PM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Forecast remains on track for tonight as an upper-level trough continues to propagate across the Colorado and Wyoming border this evening. Although there is limited moisture associated with this trough, a few flurries cannot be ruled out in the high country tonight. A weak upper level trough over western WY this afternoon, will continue to track along the northern CO border tonight into Friday morning. Spatial cross-sections still show limited moisture with this system as it passes across the forecast area, with very limited pops in the high country. Across the northeast plains, the models show some low clouds advecting westward this evening into Sedgwick and Phillips counties, then shifting eastward overnight with the approach of a cold front. Models have upper ridging for the CWA Friday night.
540 PM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Upper low will move across Wy overnight and bring some light snow showers mainly to the mtns and northern parts of the CWA. Activity may persist Friday morning before ending as the upper low moves across Neb. A bit cooler Friday in the wake of the system otherwise relatively quiet weather expected through Friday night. Short-lived ridging sets in the wake of the passing trough from Thursday as our progressive weather pattern continues with another trough digging in across the Pacific Northwest.
831 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 Low pressure moving eastward through the southeast U. will drag a cold front and preceding band of fast moving scattered showers eastward across the area late this evening through the overnight hours. Fast moving scattered showers ahead of a cold front may briefly produce gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions as they move into areas northwest of I-4 late this evening and across the rest of east central Florida after midnight. A fresh to strong S/SW breeze will exist across the waters into tonight as an approaching cold front and preceding band of fast moving showers moves through central Florida and adjacent Atlantic waters into tonight.
Temperatures will continue to hit a few degrees above normal until the weekend when a cold front will drop temps back down to normal.
Overnight temperatures will be a bit tricky, with the warmer air moving in aloft, but this will clear skies and promote more efficient cooling. A closed low will cross the Midsouth and trek eastward Friday before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday. The forecast area will remain on the northern periphery of this low, resulting in persistent nrly flow through the short term period, with another seasonable and cloudy day anticipated.
521 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 (This evening through Friday) Low clouds have been tough to budge so far today for much of the area outside of far western Oklahoma and north Texas as cool, moist northerly flow continues on the backside of the large upper level low to our east. Chances for denser fog, or even freezing fog, would increase if cloud cover remains thin and/or higher base. This appears more likely for areas to our north and west but for now did include mention of patchy fog (or freezing fog depending on temperatures) across northwest Oklahoma late tonight. Temperatures will therefore remain cool tomorrow with highs only in the low 40s for much of the area.
Weak southerly return flow on the west side of high pressure in MN will continue to pull abundant low to mid level moisture into the region. Coupled with the low stratus, it will be a favorable set up for drizzle and freezing drizzle through Friday afternoon.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ The sfc and upper low that brought widespread precip to the region has moved eastward into Northern Mississippi and will continue to move across the SE CONUS. Some light rain and drizzle continue to wrap around the back side of this low with regional radar picking up returns as far west as East Texas. Northwesterly winds will bring in some drier and cooler weather to the region tonight but low clouds are expected to remain across the region. Despite the cloud cover, temps will fall into the low to mid 30s areawide by Friday morning.
Upper low will move across Wy overnight and bring some light snow showers mainly to the mtns and northern parts of the CWA. Activity may persist Friday morning before ending as the upper low moves across Neb. A bit cooler Friday in the wake of the system otherwise relatively quiet weather expected through Friday night. Short-lived ridging sets in the wake of the passing trough from Thursday as our progressive weather pattern continues with another trough digging in across the Pacific Northwest.
Dry weather continues through the day today for interior NorCal as brief upper level ridging remains over California. Upper level cirrus clouds continue to stream over NorCal ahead of an approaching weak upper level trough. Another quick hitting weather system moves through northern California overnight tonight, with the trough moving east of the forecast area by late tomorrow. There is the possibility for Valley fog formation again tomorrow morning, though the high clouds associated with the weather system may limit the possibility.
While highs on Friday will be in the mid 30s in southeastern IL, expecting any precip Fri afternoon to be in the form of snow, as wet-bulb temperatures will be below freezing. High pressure will settle southward into the central Plains over the weekend, diminishing any lingering snow flurries by Friday night, but likely keeping plenty of low clouds across central IL.
I was being rather generous with QPF, so it may be a bit on the higher side.
302 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Dense fog now through Friday AM and the potential for freezing drizzle starting late tonight into Friday will be the main concerns of the short term forecast. Freezing drizzle chances start to increase after 3 AM Friday, although confidence in location is very low. Messaging the chance for freezing drizzle across the entire region, although not expecting the entire region to see freezing drizzle.
Since the band has averaged only 10 to 15 miles wide, the exact location is barely within the ability of the high- res models to resolve.
235 PM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Upper low will move across Wy overnight and bring some light snow showers mainly to the mtns and northern parts of the CWA. Activity may persist Friday morning before ending as the upper low moves across Neb. A bit cooler Friday in the wake of the system otherwise relatively quiet weather expected through Friday night. Short-lived ridging sets in the wake of the passing trough from Thursday as our progressive weather pattern continues with another trough digging in across the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 346 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ With rain out of the area now,we will continue to experience cooler temperatures due to the cold front that moved through the area this morning.
Precip type confidence is low, but right now expecting mostly rain in the lower Basin and more of a mix along the east slopes of the Cascades.
Upper low appears to be located over ne MS at this time. Temperatures are generally in the lower 30s across that area.
Wet bulb cooling has been (and will continue to be) gradual with current dew points still in the lower 30s.
601 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 Current forecast still appears on track this evening as a cold front was recently analyzed over the Central Panhandle of FL.
346 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 With rain out of the area now,we will continue to experience cooler temperatures due to the cold front that moved through the area this morning.
422 PM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Clouds continue to skirt the northern counties of Utah and Colorado today as a weak trough passes eastward to the north of the Wyoming border. Have opted to remove snow wording from most grids in the northern CO mountains as forecast soundings remain quite dry in the lower levels through the evening. A brief period of ridging will move in on Friday with dry weather and seasonable high temperatures. As the ridge axis passes during the afternoon, expect high cirrus clouds to spill eastward and overspread the western slope by evening.
Clearing should be shortlived with nocturnal column cooling and advance of warm conveyor belt moisture from Gulf Coast cyclone.
Current GOES 16 shows an area of low pressure still over the southeast U. Other than increased clouds and winds, the low pressure system to the south may produce light rain/snow showers over far southern portions of central Indiana. Surface winds will die down a little and start to back to from the north as the low moves off to the east.
1231 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Complex low pressure along the central Gulf Coast will move northeast to off North Carolina Friday night into early Saturday.
03z temperatures are running some 2-6 degrees warmer than 03z forecast temps however and for this reason, did bump hourly temps up a few degrees as well as overnight low temps. Was very pessimistic with the low ceilings for the TAF package on Friday and while I did show a trend for MVFR ceilings to become low IFR across most places by late morning through the afternoon, I did keep ceilings in at all terminals through the end of the TAF period.
The only real weather of note will be a few light lake effect drizzle, flurries or freezing drizzle across the lakeshore this evening. Otherwise some fog is possible tonight, but should not be nearly as thick as the last few days given a bit drier air in the lower levels.
1158 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 (This evening through Friday) Low clouds have been tough to budge so far today for much of the area outside of far western Oklahoma and north Texas as cool, moist northerly flow continues on the backside of the large upper level low to our east. Chances for denser fog, or even freezing fog, would increase if cloud cover remains thin and/or higher base. This appears more likely for areas to our north and west but for now did include mention of patchy fog (or freezing fog depending on temperatures) across northwest Oklahoma late tonight. Temperatures will therefore remain cool tomorrow with highs only in the low 40s for much of the area.
With the onshore winds and moderate delta T values through the afternoon into this evening could support some lake effect drizzle or freezing drizzle across the eastern parts of the area. These slight higher winds should be enough to deter dense fog or dense freezing fog from developing. As high pressure continues to linger through the end of the work week, light winds and dry weather is expected across southern Wisconsin. The high temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 20s to low 30s tomorrow and skies are expected to remain overcast.
The 00z ILX sounding pegs the low stratus deck around 5 kft. While highs on Friday will be in the mid 30s in southeastern IL, expecting any precip Fri afternoon to be in the form of snow, as wet-bulb temperatures will be below freezing. High pressure will settle southward into the central Plains over the weekend, diminishing any lingering snow flurries by Friday night, but likely keeping plenty of low clouds across central IL.
High pressure sits across Minnesota with a northerly wind of 5 to 10 MPH across the area. Will primarily lean on a persistence forecast with high pressure building into the area. High pressure is forecast to remain to our northwest over the next 24 hours with persistent northeasterly flow at the surface. This will work to bring in cooler and drier air at the surface that will work to counteract a stout inversion that remains in place across the area that is trapping the stratus and low level moisture. However, the northerly wind will work to counteract the low level moisture.
1006 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure located over central Canada will slowly build toward the North Country on Friday into this upcoming weekend. Still cannot completely rule out a few passing light snow flurries or patches of freezing drizzle across the higher terrain tonight into early Friday.
Radar 3-hr QPE would suggest that the highest amounts have fallen along a SW-NE oriented band from Harrison, IN to Shelby, KY. Impacts are expected to be minor as road temperatures are hovering around 32F or higher, but any untreated roadways including secondary roadways, back roads, bridges and overpasses my have slick spots. High pressure will begin to build in, resulting in dry conditions, although low clouds will persist throughout the short term. Overcast skies and northerly winds will limit heating today with high temps in the mid 30s across southern Indiana and in the high 30s to low 40s across central and southern Kentucky. A period of dry weather is expected this weekend as high pressure builds into the region.
Upper low will move across Wy overnight and bring some light snow showers mainly to the mtns and northern parts of the CWA. Activity may persist Friday morning before ending as the upper low moves across Neb. A bit cooler Friday in the wake of the system otherwise relatively quiet weather expected through Friday night.
Speaking of CAMs, they are hinting at some moisture wrapping around the 700mb low pressure, bringing in low- level moisture and potentially some additional flurries to our northwestern counties this morning.
Upper low continues to spin over the mid-south this evening, producing a band of snow in a weak deformation zone which continues to move north/west.
333 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure over the Upper Midwest will remain the key player across the Great Lakes region through the weekend.
252 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Satellite this morning continues to show extensive fog and stratus across the region, with high pressure at the surface and weak flow through basically the entire troposphere.
In addition, the low CAPE/moderate shear environment has supported fast-evolving storm structures, including some cell mergers, splits,and deviant motion. Most rainfall has occurred along and south of the lower and middle Florida Keys over Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida, although it has rained in Key West 2-3 times this evening. A cold front currently is moving across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula, and should approach the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters around daybreak. A cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will move southeastward, crossing the Florida Keys Friday morning.
These low stratus conditions are expected to last today through tonight as forecast soundings still show a decent moisture trapping inversion around 900 mb in place over the region with high pressure stationed overhead. Not expecting much impact from fog tonight as the higher saturated conditions shown in forecast soundings would be slightly elevated off the ground. This supports the low stratus clouds persisting overnight and not developing dense fog at the surface.
Locally, mixed precipitation has been reported along the Cumberland Plateau with notable snowfall rates taking place in the highest terrain. Precip is expected to taper off from west to east throughout the day with most areas outside of the mountains likely getting above freezing. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 30 43 26 46 / 40 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 29 39 24 43 / 80 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 27 40 23 43 / 50 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 27 39 18 43 / 90 20 0 0 0 NC.
Locally, mixed precipitation has been reported along the Cumberland Plateau with notable snowfall rates taking place in the highest terrain. Precip is expected to taper off from west to east throughout the day with most areas outside of the mountains likely getting above freezing. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 40 30 43 26 / 90 30 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 37 29 39 24 / 90 70 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 38 27 40 23 / 80 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 37 27 39 18 / 80 80 30 0 0 NC.
341 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Greatest focus remains in the near term as there is still an expected rain to snow transition confined to the far northern CWA as upper low and cooling temps aloft track eastward across the TN Valley and western Carolinas today. With updated QPF ranging from one to three tenths of an inch, such ratios are in line with around or a bit lower than 1-3 inches of fcst snow accumulations sticking in the higher elevations where sfc temps should be around the freezing mark and possibly aided by diabatic effects of periods of any heavier snow. Quiet and dry ridge dominated Saturday on tap with continued enhanced NW gradient sfc winds. Temps staying below normal for most areas with little change from today other than some warmer values in the eastern CWA.
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ WV imagery shows a large trough exiting the MS Valley, w/weak upper- level ridging attempting to develop over the SW CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. Meanwhile, a trough will make landfall in the PacNW, close off, and dig to the Four Corners by 18Z Saturday.
GOES water vapor imagery showed dual "pinwheeling" upper lows, centered over southeast MO and northeast AL. /issued 320 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ An upper level low pressure system continues to move across North Mississippi this afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening, spreading into eastern parts of the CWA, as colder air gets wrapped around on the back side of the low. Flurries could occur during the Friday afternoon through Saturday time frame as another upper level low moves into the area.
Lower clouds will hang on today with colder than normal temperatures, but we may finally see the low clouds clear out late tonight or early Saturday with mid level height rises and increased subsidence.
Fog may continue in the Lower Treasure Valley and is more difficult to determine at this time.
A few breaks in the low stratus have also developed though this is also likely to be brief and transient in nature.
1210 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure located over central Canada will slowly build toward the North Country on Friday into this upcoming weekend. Still cannot completely rule out a few passing light snow flurries or patches of freezing drizzle across the higher terrain tonight into early Friday. Water vapor shows large scale blocking type pattern with ridge over low acrs the central conus, while closed cutoff circulation over eastern Canada continues to retrograde back westward toward northern ME.
By Friday afternoon ceilings are forecast to become high end MVFR over the CWA with the potential for the low clouds to scatter out late afternoon/evening. A few breaks in the low stratus have also developed though this is also likely to be brief and transient in nature.
1052 PM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Clouds continue to skirt the northern counties of Utah and Colorado today as a weak trough passes eastward to the north of the Wyoming border. Have opted to remove snow wording from most grids in the northern CO mountains as forecast soundings remain quite dry in the lower levels through the evening. A brief period of ridging will move in on Friday with dry weather and seasonable high temperatures. As the ridge axis passes during the afternoon, expect high cirrus clouds to spill eastward and overspread the western slope by evening. Today, forecast guidance has ticked upward a bit, suggesting a general 2-4 inch event for much of the higher terrain across central and southern Colorado. In the lower valleys, accumulating snow of note is unlikely.
258 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 A brief break in the clouds for portions of northeast Kansas early this morning, as surface ridging continues to nose southward into the area behind the departing eastern upper low. Clear skies and light winds may still bring some patchy freezing fog and a few slick spots this early this morning. Once again some early morning surface ridging could bring some patchy fog, however with most of the snowmelt past, and less insolation for evaporation into the boundary layer today, chances will reside with what saturation can occur despite cloud cover. The next stronger upper low to move into the central US takes a track to our west then south before lifting into the Appalachians for the early week.
1024 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 Complex low pressure along the central Gulf Coast will move northeast to off North Carolina Friday night into early Saturday.
Web cams show maybe an inch of accumulation in downtown Red Lodge, and more upslope snow will continue into the overnight hours as upper low moves slowly across WY. As the low continues to move east, snow will become more of an issue for far southeast MT later tonight. The hills surrounding town should see a dusting tonight (maybe 1/2"), but the city will struggle to accumulate at all w/ surface temps hanging in the low 30s.
Cloud coverage over the forecast area will remain in place through the early morning and into the rest of Friday as a mid to upper level low slides east over the southern Appalachian Mts.
Since the band has averaged only 10 to 15 miles wide, the exact location is barely within the ability of the high- res models to resolve. A broad area of mid-level troughing will continue to encompass much of the eastern and central states. Negative 500 mb height anomalies will be focused over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Overnight temperatures will be a bit tricky, with the warmer air moving in aloft, but this will clear skies and promote more efficient cooling. A closed low will cross the Midsouth and trek eastward Friday before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday. The forecast area will remain on the northern periphery of this low, resulting in persistent nrly flow through the short term period, with another seasonable and cloudy day anticipated. Warmer air pushing in from the east is causing an east to west decay of the stratocu layer. slowly scattering out the low cloud deck at most ports by dawn. Confidence is low that FKL and ZZV will scatter out as the warmer air aloft may not make it that far west.
Pfahler On Friday night, an upper-level trough is forecast to navigate northwesterly upper-level flow as it passes over or immediately south of the forecast area. Low- amplitude upper-level ridging is anticipated on Saturday and should provide dry conditions but mostly cloudy skies will likely continue given only weak resulting large-scale subsidence across the Midwest.
1248 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 [Through 06Z Saturday] Clouds remain in place behind the cold front with IFR to MVFR cigs expected this morning.
The only exception will be on Saturday when a dry cold frontal passage will bring breezy north to northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
941 PM PST Thu Jan 7 2021 A light wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle could lead to slick travel across Central Washington overnight into Friday morning. As of 8 pm Stampede Pass was reporting light freezing rain and 32 degrees, with 32 degrees and light snow at Stevens Pass according to WSDOT pass report. With the dendritic layer fairly dry, suspect a wide variety of precipitation types mainly in the form of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light snow will continue through the night with temperatures not expected to drop in this area much from current readings.
/issued 346 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ With rain out of the area now,we will continue to experience cooler temperatures due to the cold front that moved through the area this morning. A high pressure system will build over the area going into the weekend causing temperatures to cool below normal. A strong upper level low troughing into the area will allow colder temperatures to settle and bring some drier weather conditions for the weekend. Temperatures are expected to drop to near or below freezing Friday night into Saturday with winds calming down and skies remaining clear.
A broad area of high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the Desert Southwest. over the next few days with occasional periods of thin high clouds and daily highs near 70 degrees across the lower deserts. This trough will close off and dive through the four-corners region on Saturday. This will be a mostly dry trough and its track will keep any favorable dynamics well removed from the area. In the wake of the trough, high pressure will build into the Great Basin leading to gusty northerly winds.