Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High clouds have accompanied the weak surface cold front that is still crossing the TN Valley at this time. As a result of the cloud cover, there will likely be somewhat warmer overnight low temperatures close to 60 degrees, especially over the rivers and lakes (mid 60s). As this trough approaches, it is expected to deepen and amplify slightly over MS/AL. Despite the deepening and amplification, it will be challenging for the weak moisture advection and light precipitation to saturate the low-levels. Due to the expected cloud cover and precipitation, anticipating that the daytime highs will be somewhat cooler on Friday except the southern portions of the CWA where cloud cover may be less continuous (broken).
High clouds have accompanied the weak surface cold front that is still crossing the TN Valley at this time. As a result of the cloud cover, there will likely be somewhat warmer overnight low temperatures close to 60 degrees, especially over the rivers and lakes (mid 60s). As this trough approaches, it is expected to deepen and amplify slightly over MS/AL. Despite the deepening and amplification, it will be challenging for the weak moisture advection and light precipitation to saturate the low-levels. Due to the expected cloud cover and precipitation, anticipating that the daytime highs will be somewhat cooler on Friday except the southern portions of the CWA where cloud cover may be less continuous (broken).
201 PM PDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A little warmer today with weak high pressure and the marine layer becoming slightly more shallow tonight into Friday morning, with low clouds and fog along the coast and western valleys. Expect slight cooling Friday with high pressure weakening aloft.
336 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Mid afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis had shifted east toward the Great Lakes and return flow had become established over the Plains. This should lead to much warmer temperatures for Friday over the area with some increase in high level clouds.
/issued 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/ Quite a change today in the wake of yesterday's cold front, as the combination of cloudcover and cold air advection has resulted in many locations struggling to make it out of the 50s and lower 60s, with the exception of southern zones where temperatures this afternoon are in the 70s and lower 80s.
310 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Latest SFC analysis was indicating center of large midwest high pressure was progressing eastward acrs northwestern IL, with light and variable local winds and current temps in the low to mid 50s. Aloft, very broad low amplitude ridging/near westerly flow occupied much of the middle CONUS, with one embedded waves noted on water vapor imagery acrs the OK/TX panhandle region. The above mentioned ridge will continue to migrate eastward, allowing lift east to southeast return flow wrapping around it's western flank as the overnight progresses. In areas last to get the return flow of far northwestern IL, temps may dip into the mid 30s or even push the lower 30s and experience more widespread frost again. This would temper the high potential in the west and southwest a few degrees from other areas.
236 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Current surface analysis places trough stretching from southern Alberta into central Montana while high settles into the Midwest. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the eastern Rockies working into the northern plains. High clouds continue to try and push over the ridge but for now mainly clear conditions remain over our area. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, quiet weather remains over the area as ridge continues to push over. Otherwise, quiet weather remains as a flat ridge passes over the area.
That cirrus is associated with a strong region of low pressure centered west of the WA/OR coast. There is another region of low pressure centered over Hudson Bay. Further south over subtropical latitudes there is a broad region of high pressure with one area centered over the Gulf of Mexico and another centered west of the Baja peninsula. The models continue to show waxing and waning of the high pressure influence over our area as systems eject inland from the northeast Pacific and pass to the north.
551 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front is crossing today. High pressure passes Friday.
248 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Quite a change today in the wake of yesterday's cold front, as the combination of cloudcover and cold air advection has resulted in many locations struggling to make it out of the 50s and lower 60s, with the exception of southern zones where temperatures this afternoon are in the 70s and lower 80s.
On Friday, much of the low level thermal progs available indicate it could get quite toasty across portions of central and south central South Dakota, with the potential to mix out some rather dry air during the afternoon hours.
High pressure will slide off to the east of the region tonight into Friday. The combination of light winds, clearing skies and lows in the lower 30s away from Lake Michigan should lead to areas of frost developing. Locations near the lakeshore should remain a bit warmer, and may not see as much frost. Highs should rise closer to or a little above seasonal normals, in the lower to mid 60s in most areas. We'll be stuck between high pressure to the east and low pressure approaching from the west. The milder southerly flow will be dry, so rather mild with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
314 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A positively-tilted trough currently located over the southern High Plains will progressively shift eastward tonight. With a relatively dry atmosphere still in place from the influence of high pressure just to the east, the deepest moisture resides well to the south and west of the CWA. With the increase in moisture and cloud cover, lows tonight will be much warmer, with some areas rebounding prior to sunrise.
A baroclinic region is evident as temperatures north and west of a line from Hereford to Canadian are in the low to mid 40s while temperatures quickly jump into the low to mid 50s south and east of this line. With clouds in place most places will stay in the low to mid 60s today.
103 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cooler airmass had settled across the area in the wake of the cold front that pushed well to the south early this morning. A northerly wind and lingering cloud cover will keep highs today generally in the lower 60s.
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Warmer through the rest of the work week as an area of high pressure over the mid-Mississippi river valley builds east towards the lower Great Lakes region, resulting in warm southwest flow across the upper Midwest. Highs in the mid 40s (tip of the MN Arrowhead) to low 50s (north-central MN) today, warmer Friday in the mid 50s to near 60. However, as the low-mid level ridge axis moves east across Minnesota into Wisconsin this morning the drier air will build eastwards resulting in sunny skies by mid morning.
Quiet weather is expected today with an upper level ridge pushing in.
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front is crossing today. High pressure passes Friday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Current trends will persist, with high pressure continuing to extend from the Southeast United Sates across the Northwest Gulf and into the local area, and with a broad H5 ridge pattern aloft.
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure over the Great lakes will build into the area tonight and Friday bringing cooler and drier air to the region.
305 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 A moisture-starved cold front will cross NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. Attendant cold front that now stretches from western NY SWWD through centrral TN and into the Lower MS valley will move SEWD through Central NC this evening and into the overnight hours. Otherwise, it will remain dry with low to mid-level ridging centered over the area.
1110 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Upper level analysis has trof moving through the Great Lakes region, and ridge building across the Central and Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across Iowa with a weak lee trof across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper ridge will continue to build across the Rocky Mountains and into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge remains across the area, with mostly clear skies expected. Upper ridge axis begins to shift east of the area as a strong trof moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as remains high pressure remains in control across the tri-state region. A weak cold front continues to sag southward into portions of Alabama and Georgia this afternoon, making its presence known with an increase in shallow cumulus clouds along and ahead of the front across the region.
Rainfall will increase in intensity tonight ahead of the cold front. The higher terrain across the northern mountains and in the east slopes of the northern Cascades will see additional rainfall amounts of an inch to 2 inches. /SVH 18Z TAFS: A warm front tracking across the region this morning will result in light to moderate rainfall. Cold front passage will be between 08-10Z in the Cascades to 12-14Z in the ID Panhandle. Rainfall intensity will increase ahead of the cold front with the chance for pockets of heavy rain possible.
1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Latest 08z surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa. Temperatures have fallen into the lower to middle 40s across the forecast area.
This will keep winds around 10 kts in most locations tonight which will help keep lows in the lower to middle 40s. The exception will be east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. With an inversion setting up overnight, hi-res models, especially the WRF-ARW, are showing strong winds east of the ridge axis in parts of Lincoln, Lyon and Cottonwood counties in southwestern Minnesota. Winds will pick up to 20 to 30 mph east of the James River with gusts approaching 40 mph around the Buffalo ridge in the afternoon.
Weak high pressure is filling into the area as a weak cold front pushes its way through the area and as a lee trough continues to develop in the Carolinas. Humidity values should climb as the front brings slight cooler but more moist air into the region.
Weak high pressure settles in across the area tonight followed by another strong high building in from New England on Friday.
High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will support light to moderate southeast winds and VFR conditions. High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will produce mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with only extremely isolated showers during the daylight hours today (not included in the TAFs due to the isolated nature of the convection). Enough moisture should remain today for the possibility of isolated showers along and east of the Highway 281/ Interstate 69C corridor and adjacent coastal waters, and isolated convective cells over the far Gulf of Mexico waters tonight.
625 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will cross the area tonight. A cool and dry high pressure system will build in behind this front, bringing seasonable temperatures through the weekend.
High pressure to the north will slide east with low level winds veering more toward an E-ENE component as it does so. Have limited PoPs to isolated for coastal sections only given the overall onshore flow weakening a little through the lower levels.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period and any moisture that reaches the lower elevations will be light. Heights fall throughout the day on Friday but downslope is a big factor for the lower elevations.
248 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Post frontal clouds will break tonight as high pressure builds back into the region overnight and Friday.
318 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Return flow has developed across the area as high pressure retreats eastward. The highest chances will be for locations along and south of interstate 35. Tomorrow the southerly flow will usher in warmer temperatures and skies should be mostly clear with the exception of east central KS. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s.
/issued 1045 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016/ The 10 AM surface analysis depicts a cold front located across southeastern portions of the CWA, with advection of dry and cooler air evident under northerly surface winds behind this feature. A cold front is currently across northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. By this afternoon, the cold front should be south of the forecast area so dry weather is expected to return by then. Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front with highs today ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 80s.
305 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 A warming trend will continue into Friday as southerly flow brings warmer air into the region. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, except for the northeast Arrowhead, which will only reach the lower 50s.
322 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 The cold front has pushed just south and east of Middle Tennessee this afternoon.
327 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Latest surface analysis showed a cold front from New York to north Mississippi to northwest Louisiana to central Texas. Upper air analysis showed an anti- cyclonic circulation over south Texas and Mexico with the ridge axis extending east to Florida. 18 Cold front will become stationary northwest of forecast area tonight and dissolve on Friday. Meanwhile, the retreating ridge will maintain dewpoint values across the north half of the forecast area through tonight.
1215 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Clear skies and light winds have led to temperatures falling below freezing in many locations this morning and others still approaching the freezing mark. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates upper- level trough across the western Great Lakes, with upper low also beginning to lower heights in the Pacific Northwest. Cold front at 850mb extended from low near Hudson Bay through MI/IL/MO/OK and into southwest TX.
353 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Surface analysis this afternoon puts the center of sprawling high pressure over western IA with a potent storm system moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. Aloft, a longwave trough axis is nearly N-S from Lake Superior through the lower Mississippi River Valley and a small ridge axis is aligned over the spine of the Rockies, putting MN/WI within dry NW flow aloft. allowing for warmer temperatures and slightly higher dewpoints to move into the region through tomorrow afternoon. However, plenty of sunshine will still be realized despite the exodus of high pressure due to a broad longwave ridge moving atop the region tomorrow. Minimum temperatures tonight will also be warmer, thus no need for any further freeze-related headlines or supplementary products.
Low clouds continue to move eastward into Middle TN this morning behind the slow moving cold front.
406 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Current sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over n-cntl TX providing for a light nrly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows the area in a nwrly mid/upper-level flow with troffing over the nern CONUS and ridging over the Desert SW. Plenty of Pacific moisture is noted spilling over the ridge, and IR imagery corroborates this with a near cirrus overcast ongoing over the area. Our nwrly flow aloft is progged to turn more zonal today as the nern CONUS trof pushes into the nrn Atlantic.
High pressure will slide east of the state this afternoon, with winds backing from the west-northwest to the south with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest late tonight and into early Saturday morning. Clouds will remain in tact across much of the Arklatex late Saturday onward as well as the frontal boundary lingers in the region and surface and mid-level low pressure over central Texas continue to pump gulf moisture northward into Arkansas.
The first in a series of low pressure systems due to affect our area is currently tracking east/northeastward toward the Point Conception area and spreading some showers into Kern County. The next colder system will be dropping south into our area right behind this exiting upper low and models are in good agreement bringing showers in by SAturday morning. Although there is not significant associated moisture, the low snow levels will lead to some light accumulations on the mountain passes in Kern County by the evening of New Years Eve. We will again see a slight chance for some thunderstorms in southern Kern County Saturday as the cold upper low moves overhead.
As one upper-level low pressure system lifts out of the northeastern U. Dry air in the wake of yesterday's cold front is expected to mix down to the surface this afternoon, with minimum relative humidity values at or below 20 percent possible. Moist return flow resumes tonight as the ridge shifts eastward and the next disturbance approaches our region, and chances for showers will begin to increase accordingly by tomorrow morning.
NAM/GFS 06 UTC 6 hour forecast surface pressures are quite similar to current surface analysis of low pressure situated west of Regina Saskatchewan. This morning a warm front and pressure falls will move east across the State. Late this afternoon and evening a cold front will swing through, followed by a sharp pressure rise. The low pressure center is expected to slice across North Dakota diagonally from northwest to southeast. North of the low snow is expected. Blowing snow may be more of an issue up north with cooler temperatures and falling snow.
527 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 A thermal ridge builds to around 10C at h850mb today. A cold front drops through tonight. Winds will shift to the southwest Saturday as high pressure shifts east across KS into MO. Warmer air will quickly move into the area with H850MB temperatures rising from -5C to 2C through the day.
High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee from the southwest, with an unusually strong pressure gradient force contributing to breezy overnight conditions. We can expect return flow by tonight, and considerable moisture advection by Saturday morning as the next cold front approaches from the west.
Current satellite imagery indicates the TN valley should remain clear or mostly clear today as a band of CI/CS streams across the deep south and cold advection clouds remain to our northeast associated with the departing upper trof. High temperatures in the middle to upper 40s are still expected in valley areas, while the higher Cumberland Plateau areas in TN/northeast AL only reach around 40 to 43. Not too much change in thinking for Saturday with a well defined area of isentropic ascent across the lower MS shifting east through the day. As strong warm air advection continues, the thermal/moisture ridge at 850 mb will also shift east across AL/middle and eastern TN Saturday Night.
This morning a warm front and pressure falls will move east across the State. Late this afternoon and evening a cold front will swing through, followed by a sharp pressure rise. The low pressure center is expected to slice across North Dakota diagonally from northwest to southeast. North of the low snow is expected. Blowing snow may be more of an issue up north with cooler temperatures and falling snow.
620 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Low pressure will move northeastward and away from the region today. High pressure will quickly build over the region by early Saturday, followed by a weak area of low pressure passing by Saturday night.
A dry high pressure ridge will move across Mid TN today. As the ridge axis moves closer, winds that are gusting over 20 mph this morning will drop off to less than 10 mph this afternoon.
841 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Much cooler and drier conditions this morning across the region, with lows bottoming out in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Seas 5-7 feet nearshore will fall to 2-4 feet tonight and seas 7-11 feet offshore will subside to 3-5 feet tonight as high pressure builds overhead.
Cold front, with northerly wind shift, will approach KGAG/KWWR toward end of forecast period.
545 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Manitoba southward to Texas will shift into the Midwest today. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the front, which will keep low temperatures on the mild side in the lower to middle 30s. A clipper system evident on latest water vapor imagery over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will track into northern Michigan, pulling a weak cold front into Illinois by Saturday afternoon.
955 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Low pressure will move northward into eastern Canada today. High pressure will quickly build over the region by early Saturday, followed by a weak area of low pressure passing by Saturday night.
1013 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 The departure of the upper trough and jet to our east will bring an end to measureable snowfall this morning, although some flurries may persist into the early afternoon across SW VA and NE TN.
Zonal flow aloft will resume this afternoon through tonight as a large upper trough over the far eastern conus shifts east over the western Atlantic.
916 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure, currently centered over central LA, will continue to shift slowly to the east through the day. Skies will remain clear as drier air continues to filter across the TN Valley, however temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than observed max temps yesterday. Northwesterly surface winds will shift to the south late this afternoon as the center of the high moves into southern MS and AL by this evening. Not too much change in thinking for Saturday with a well defined area of isentropic ascent across the lower MS shifting east through the day. As strong warm air advection continues, the thermal/moisture ridge at 850 mb will also shift east across AL/middle and eastern TN Saturday Night.
658 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Snow showers will be on the decrease today, as high pressure builds into the southeast states, and extends northward into the Ohio Valley.
605 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Upper level trough and northwest flow drive upslope snow through much of today. It appeared that a mid-level trof moved southeast across Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania into Maryland several hours ago with possibly less coverage of the showers in its wake. High pressure then begins to build in with the precipitation decreasing across the lowlands during the afternoon hours. Still expect snowfall amounts will range from 8-10 inches across the highest elevations to little or snow accums across portions of northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio. The 00Z model guidance is a bit slower with bringing through the warm front and now is indicating that colder air will likely remain in place in the mountains. However, temperatures across the Lowlands will be plenty warm enough for precip to fall as plain rain.
508 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Surface ridging moves eastward today with a southerly flow returning to the area. This will bring about warmer temperatures in spite of increasing high clouds, with highs running mid 30s along the Highway 14 corridor into the Iowa Great Lakes area, to the mid 40s through the Missouri River Valley. A cold front swings across the area tonight.
A fast moving cold front is currently oriented W-E in a line from Ritzville to Tillamook and will travel south this morning across the forecast area and will exit the region by 4 PM this afternoon. and the upper level trough associated with the front will remain over WA/OR on New Years Day.
Today we have a fairly narrow band of snow developing along the leading edge of a low pressure trough over northern Idaho. Snow amounts should be less than 2 inches in the mountains and less than one inch in the lower valleys.
The upper level low situated off the southern coast of California is forecast to open and move into the southwest U.