Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 The current upper-air pattern is amplified in nature, featuring a ridge over the Rockies and a downstream trough over the eastern third of the nation. While the mid to upper-level high is forecast to remain anchored near the Four Corners region through the remainder of the week, a series of perturbations embedded within the polar belt of westerlies will gradually dampen the ridge across the northern tier of states. The result of that process is the deepening of a surface lee trough over the High Plains the subsequent advection of a progressively warmer air mass into the region over the course of the work week. -Canadian border this weekend into early next, promoting at least a temporary retrogression of the upper high from the Four Corners into the lower CO Valley.
253 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level high to our northwest is centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon. Along with cooler temperatures today, drier air has filtered into our area.
An upper-level ridge was anchored over the Western U. with a trough over the East. For Wednesday, another very nice day with temps in the low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity. Towards the end of the week, the flow begins to turn NW as a ridge builds in across the central Plains. This ridge will likely lead to warmer temps across the area and the return of deep moisture. The end of the weekend, a cold front is expected to pass through the area. The ridge is forecast to move east and bring the MCS track closer to the area.
913 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A cold front south and east of the forecast area will stall just offshore Wednesday.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Aside from isolated cumulus development with leading edge of cooler air mass this aftn, clear skies will prevail for the remainder of the short term period with very dry air at all lvls, including the sfc where current dewpoints in the middle 60s will continue to sink into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Aftn highs Wednesday will only climb to the middle to upper 80's once again with continued ne breeze of 10 to 15 mph as high pressure still remains centered to the north and west of area. Better radiative cooling Wed Night although winds may still become totally calm, but enough to allow temps to fall again to the lower to middle 60's.
1008 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure will provide for generally dry conditions through the week with a gradual warming trend.
532 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Cooler and much less humid air arriving today in northerly flow. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast. Main player today is upper trough that will take its time swinging through over the next few days. Though airmass is much drier in lower levels, cooler air aloft helping to produce enough instability/CAPE to generate isolated to scattered showers and a few tstms along an 850mb N/S oriented convergence line extending from ROC to BFD to MGW. With trough still lingering, more isolated showers again look to pop midday/afternoon generally over the NW and Laurels. A rather deep (seasonably-adjusted) upper level trough over CPA at the start of the period will gradually deamplify into the weekend.
This drier and relatively cooler airmass will continue to filter into the region tonight amid deep and steady northerly flow between a highly amplified upper ridge over the Rockies and trof over the ERN CONUS. Pattern shifts a bit toward the end of the week as the ridge flattens out and recenters a little to the west while the trof to the east weakens, with the sub-tropical ridge nosing farther to the west. With the resurgence of deeper MSTR back into the area, rain chances return to the forecast, along with warmer temperatures and increasing humidity. 13 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across the coastal waters tonight in response to unseasonable cold front pushing through Gulf waters.
Cooler and drier air will be the story for the next few days, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure remains over the area. Latest model projections suggest that this ridge will make slow progress to the east over the next several days, as the upper level flow stays out of the N-NW. Ridge will slowly slide into the Ozarks and Mississippi valley by Thu/Fri, which will lead to a gradual warming trend back towards normal for end of the week, for areas west of I-135, as southerly winds return to the region.
614 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Moisture channel 4-panel satellite imagery displays upper trough from Great Lakes into the lower MS valley.
Otherwise, surface ridging and drier airmass will produce VFR conditions.
920 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure continues to build over the Mid-South this evening. Temperatures should trend a couple of degrees warmer.
755 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dry and seasonable weather is expected this week with isolated showers possible along the eastern ridges Today and Wednesday. The best chances will be along the eastern ridges where orographic lift will aid storm organization and better low level moisture is expected to reside, but showers may extend farther east Wednesday depending on the potency of the incoming wave and any remaining near sfc moisture. The cooler air in the NW flow will result in a slightly below seasonal temperature for the region through the period with a mix of sun and clouds each day.
/Issued 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/ A rather benign weather pattern will remain in place across North and Central Texas as an upper level ridge continues to take hold of the western United States. With a ridge to our west and a trough to our east, North and Central Texas will remain under northerly flow aloft through the end of this work week.
735 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Subsidence behind a departing short wave trough has left partly to mostly sunny skies across Upper Michigan at mid afternoon. Although mid level thermal trough axis will be shifting to the southeast tonight there will be some elevated instability potential along low/mid level theta-e axis extending south from northwest Ontario and into western Upper Michigan. A cold front north of Lake Superior Wednesday not likely to make much southward progress Wednesday night as heights rise a bit across the upper Lakes.
900 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A fairly sharp frontal trof extending from the NW GOMex to the Mid Atlc has suppressed the Bermuda Ridge axis into the Greater Antilles/Srn Bahamas. Marginal boating conds overnight as the departing remnants of TD #3 centered off the Carolinas interacts with the wrn flank of the Bermuda Ridge to generate a gentle to moderate SW breeze nearshore and moderate to fresh offshore.
In the low-levels, a thermally induced area of lower 850 mb heights is forecast to develop over the entire NWRN CA coast during Wednesday, and then reposition south of the region during late week. Sunshine should yield warmer temperatures in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s. As the 850 mb thermal low shifts south with time, stratus will likely return to the coast and aid in slightly cooler highs.
The cold front has now moved through all of Central Alabama. A majority of the showers and thunderstorms were located along and ahead of the cold front, but a few showers were still occurring as far north as a Wedowee to Montgomery line.
Enjoy the cooler dry weather as the heat and humidity will return late this week! 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
In the wake of the cold front passage last night, much cooler and drier air continues to spread into eastern KY. Of special note are the lower dewpoints showing up across north central KY. upper trough will result in September like weather for the next few days.
1035 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A cold front will move offshore tonight.
The 500-mb trough axis will progress through the area late this evening into the early overnight periods. That said, cold air advection behind the trough axis combined with clear skies will set up refreshing, and even possibly chilly, overnight temperatures. The cooler airmass will remain in place through the short term period, marked by temperatures in the mid 80s tomorrow.
934 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 In comparison to the past few weeks, a different upper level pattern was in place across the greater North American domain - with upper ridging situated over the western Rockies/4-Corners region, and abnormally deep troughing extending southward upper low pressure over northern Quebec. The cooler airmass will remain in place through the short term period, marked by temperatures in the mid 80s tomorrow.
Otherwise, surface ridging will build into the southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 81 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0.
548 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A cold front crossing the region will be preceded by showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather and cooler temperatures will overspread the region for the rest of the work-week as high pressure dominates. A cold front currently over the area will move to our east tonight. Temperatures are already in the lower and middle 70s across the CSRA and much of the Midlands. Overnight clouds and a light wind will limit nocturnal cooling initially but cold advection and late night clearing in the northwest will support the coolest lows we have experienced in a while with lows ranging from the low to mid 60s northern/western Midlands to upper 60s southeast Midlands. Expect highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in the lower to mid 60s.
836 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A broad area of high pressure aloft will remain centered near the four corners through Wednesday, then slowly shift south over Arizona late in the week.
/issued 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level high to our northwest is centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon. Along with cooler temperatures today, drier air has filtered into our area.
755 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure will provide for generally dry conditions through the week with a gradual warming trend.
The cold front is expected to move into Oregon during the late evening hours, and continues eastward through the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon.
/issued 338 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019/ REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: Tropical Depression Three has degenerated into a remnant trough of low pressure of the NE coast of Florida late this morning. Ahead of an upper level trough and front moving through the southeast we are under deep southwest flow.
408 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Today's cold frontal boundary is moving across the nearshore waters with the northerly wind shift at Buoy 35 at noon. Cooler mornings in the average middle 60s may not break any minimum temperature records but this fact will not diminish its unique place the July's observational period of record.
536 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A high-amplitude mid-level ridge axis remains over western Colorado. Convection is ongoing this afternoon with showers and storms initiating off the higher terrain and slowly rotating around the high pressure center. A low pressure system currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to move east just north of the Canadian/CONUS border. This will force our high pressure southward beginning Wednesday afternoon and allow for moisture to wrap around the northern side of the high pressure. This increased cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures a little cooler than the past several days.
Believe the coverage will be less than what occurred today as slight upper ridging is expected. There is a subtle upper trough moving through WI today within cyclonic flow. Expect a similar setup for tomorrow with high pressure lingering overhead and another subtle upper trough moving through.
841 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A cold front will shift off the coast tonight.
803 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Cooler and much less humid air arriving today in northerly flow. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast. Main player today is upper trough that will take its time swinging through over the next few days. Though airmass is much drier in lower levels, cooler air aloft helping to produce enough instability/CAPE to generate isolated to scattered showers and a few tstms along an 850mb N/S oriented convergence line extending from ROC to BFD to MGW. With trough still lingering, more isolated showers again look to pop midday/afternoon generally over the NW and Laurels. A rather deep (seasonably-adjusted) upper level trough over CPA at the start of the period will gradually deamplify into the weekend.
844 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dry and seasonable weather is expected this week with isolated showers possible along the eastern ridges Today and Wednesday. Isolated showers are expected to fizzle out in the next hour or two near Preston/Garrett/Tucker County, remnants from a passing upper- level trough earlier today. Otherwise, a quiet night is anticipated across the region as high pressure moves in from the west. Fairly similar conditions are expected Wednesday, a few isolated showers may move across the region as the same upper-level trough exits to the east.
1039 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Currently - An unusually amplified pattern has pushed a trough southward across the United States and clipping into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Troughing over the eastern United States and a ridge across the central Bahamas and Cuba will maintain light south to southwest breezes on Keys waters overnight.
A different story for tonight than the last few, as this frontal boundary has made its exit through the region today, leaving behind some cooler temperatures across the CWA. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. Cooler, drier air will continue to advect into the region overnight. Although a surface pressure gradient will help to keep winds up overnight, thus limiting the radiational cooling effect, overnight lows will still fall into the low to mid 60s, near record levels for each site.
527 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 The latest GOES-16 satellite images and RAP analyses indicated a pronounced upper ridge over the Rockies with mostly sunny skies across the CWA.
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A high amplitude upper level ridge is located across the Rockies at this time keeping the area under the influence of high pressure both at the surface and aloft. The northwest flow associated with this feature is continuing to pump cooler and drier air into the region. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to near 60 with highs Wednesday climbing into the low 80s. The upper level ridge over the Rockies will begin to flatten as a short wave trough moves over the ridge across Southern Canada.
752 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A cold front crossing the region will be preceded by showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather and cooler temperatures will overspread the region for the rest of the work-week as high pressure dominates. A cold front currently over the area will move to our east tonight. Temperatures are already in the lower and middle 70s across the CSRA and much of the Midlands. Overnight clouds and a light wind will limit nocturnal cooling initially but cold advection and late night clearing in the northwest will support the coolest lows we have experienced in a while with lows ranging from the low to mid 60s northern/western Midlands to upper 60s southeast Midlands. Expect highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in the lower to mid 60s.
By 330pm, the high temperatures at Glasgow airport was 93 degrees. An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected early in the afternoon on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area.
1044 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A cold front south and east of the forecast area will stall just offshore Wednesday.
635 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure centered over the Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota borders will continue drifting east-southeast through Wednesday night.
MVFR ceilings will continue to depart the area behind a rare July cold front through the next couple hours. This drier and relatively cooler airmass will continue to filter into the region tonight amid deep and steady northerly flow between a highly amplified upper ridge over the Rockies and trof over the ERN CONUS. Pattern shifts a bit toward the end of the week as the ridge flattens out and recenters a little to the west while the trof to the east weakens, with the sub-tropical ridge nosing farther to the west. With the resurgence of deeper MSTR back into the area, rain chances return to the forecast, along with warmer temperatures and increasing humidity. 13 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across the coastal waters tonight in response to unseasonable cold front pushing through Gulf waters.
Remainder of forecast looks fine as high pressure ridge should remain west of the area and we should get chilly one more night. Moisture channel 4-panel satellite imagery displays upper trough from Great Lakes into the lower MS valley.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: Tropical Depression Three has degenerated into a remnant trough of low pressure of the NE coast of Florida late this morning. Ahead of an upper level trough and front moving through the southeast we are under deep southwest flow. SHORT TERM(Wednesday & Thursday): An upper level trough with a surface boundary will be moving into Northern Florida with deeper moisture moving into the area by Thursday.
For Wednesday, the southerly winds associated with the high pressure system are expected to increase, which will lead to increased heating. The associated surface cold front looks to pass through the Red River Valley region in the evening on Thursday, providing greater chances for some scattered showers and t- storms throughout the southeastern portion of the CWA.
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico, with areas of thunderstorms lined up along it from east of Brownsville TX to Tallahassee FL. Most weather models do indicate several weak low pressure areas along this front.
Cooler and drier air is continuing to make its way into the state as high pressure builds into the region behind the front that pushed thru yesterday. Aloft, and upper level ridge will remain over the western US, and a northwesterly flow aloft will continue across Arkansas.
/GG/ A different story for tonight than the last few, as this frontal boundary has made its exit through the region today, leaving behind some cooler temperatures across the CWA. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. Cooler, drier air will continue to advect into the region overnight. Although a surface pressure gradient will help to keep winds up overnight, thus limiting the radiational cooling effect, overnight lows will still fall into the low to mid 60s, near record levels for each site.
The persistent ridge over the Four Corners will build stronger today, though thicknesses won't increase much over yesterday. However, guidance came in much too cool yesterday, so more of the forecast area is expected to tip into the lower 90s this afternoon.
Enjoy the cooler dry weather as the heat and humidity will return late this week! 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Early this morning, it is much cooler and drier than it's been in quite awhile, with most locations in the 60s, several degrees below normal. Today, locations will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with afternoon highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s for all but the Rio Grande Valley where upper 90s are expected. 850mb temperatures will slowly warm over the next few days, though will largely remain around +22 to +25C, yielding highs in the lower to middle 90s across the area, close to normal for late July.
By this afternoon, upper ridging over the Northern Plains breaks down as an upper level low tracks through southern British Columbia and into southern Alberta by early evening. A cold front will remain located back over central and northeast Montana until later tonight. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but elevated temperature/dewpoint spreads may keep LCLs a bit on the higher side. On Thursday the chance of thunderstorms shifts into eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota along the cold front, with a marginal risk of severe storms advertised by SPC over the far southern James River Valley, and a better risk off to the east of the forecast area.
In comparison to the past few weeks, a different upper level pattern was in place across the greater North American domain - with upper ridging situated over the western Rockies/4-Corners region, and abnormally deep troughing extending southward upper low pressure over northern Quebec. The cooler airmass will remain in place through the short term period, marked by temperatures in the mid 80s tomorrow.
A trough of low pressure at the surface will remain nearly stationary overnight across eastern Colorado as the cool dome of high pressure slides east into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The lows overnight will still be on the cool side but not as cool as last night. Tonight the lows across western Kansas will range from around 57 to the lower 60s. Wednesday will be sunny and warmer. The highs Wednesday afternoon are expected to range from around 87 degrees across north central Kansas to lower 90s in extreme southwest Kansas based on the +2 to +5C 24 hour change in the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Models remain in good agreement with a surface boundary over eastern Colorado Wednesday night moving to near the Colorado/Kansas border by late Thursday as an upper level trough crosses the Northern Plains.
122 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Subsidence behind a departing short wave trough has left partly to mostly sunny skies across Upper Michigan at mid afternoon. Although mid level thermal trough axis will be shifting to the southeast tonight there will be some elevated instability potential along low/mid level theta-e axis extending south from northwest Ontario and into western Upper Michigan. A cold front north of Lake Superior Wednesday not likely to make much southward progress Wednesday night as heights rise a bit across the upper Lakes. This means temperatures will probably a few degrees warmer for Thursday (upper 70s to mid 80s).
449 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A cold front has moved through the forecast area. High pressure behind the front will be centered in the Midwest today.
Water vapor and RAP analysis showed amplified, upper ridging across the western CONUS with high pressure centered over the Four Corners region. To its east, a trough extended across the east coast. The upper ridge remains the dominate feature during this timeframe. A disturbance travels from the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies, shifting the upper flow from northwest to north and flattening the ridge somewhat. Through the start of the weekend, flow aloft will remain somewhat stagnant with large H5 ridge centered to the southwest of the area.
145 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure will provide for generally dry conditions through the week with a gradual warming trend.
This trough will allow for drier and somewhat cooler NW flow aloft into the region. A decent ridge/valley temperature difference is likely in this regime, so tried to reflect that in the grids. Airmass modification will be evident for Wednesday, as we warm a few degrees into the low 80s. Strong ridging will remain in place from Thursday night through the upcoming weekend.
Temps will hover in the low 80s this afternoon area-wide. Overnight lows will dip into the low 60s.
Temps also start off a bit cooler than we have seen this summer but they warm up though the weekend. Not looking to break any low temp records but definitely cooler.
1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure centered over the Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota borders will continue drifting east-southeast through Wednesday night. Expect below normal temperatures to continue under the influence of this high with upper 50s and low 60s for lows both tonight and Wednesday night and low to mid 80s for highs. Temperatures should be a bit warmer Wednesday and Wednesday night over today and tonight's temperatures as the Canadian airmass modifies in the strong July sun.