Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 WV imagery shows yesterday's upper trough over the MS Valley, while the next one has made landfall on the west coast. A few high clouds are riding through weak upper ridging over the northern zones, but otherwise maximum radiational cooling is in full swing, w/a hard freeze already in place for most of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The aforementioned west coast trough is still forecast to dig southeast today, and arrive at the Panhandles at around 12Z Tuesday, dropping a Pac front into the area Tuesday afternoon and maintaining the cold streak, complete with another hard freeze tuesday night.
The low stratus deck will be pesky, but with low level flow becoming less convergent, breaks should become more common by this afternoon.
Latest deterministic and ensemble consensus still points toward the highest accumulations across northwest Kansas, south/southeast into portions of south-central Kansas and north-central/northwest Oklahoma. Across Wichita's forecast area, thinking most locations will see less than one inch, although the highest probabilities for greater than one inch will be generally west/southwest of a line extending from Russell--Great Bend--Wichita--Sedan.
A trough will pass through the southeast this morning, before pushing offshore along the Mid-Atlantic coast late this afternoon into the evening. The associated cold front with this system will cross east central Florida today, slowing and weakening as it does so. A slowing, weakening cold front will pass through east central Florida today, bringing scattered showers along and north of I-4 and isolated showers south. VCSH currently included for the TAF sites with the highest anticipated chance for seeing showers, but amendments may be needed for SHRA as showers develop. A cold front will drag through the local area today, as low pressure crosses the Southeast and exits via the Mid-Atlantic coast.
225 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 A strong arctic high pressure is draped across southern Saskatchewan and northeastern Montana. Next round of snowfall on Monday will again be limited to the higher elevations of central and southern Montana. By Tuesday afternoon, cold air begins to depart toward the east and warmer air makes a return to the region from the southwest. This low deck should begin clearing around 12Z and then totally exit to the northeast around 15Z.
Winds will remain light today as high pressure will remain in control. This will lead to weak mixing and keep temperatures cool despite mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower 30s north to around 40 south. Tuesday a mid-level trough will move across Oklahoma into southern Missouri.
Radar indicates a few blips of light snow lingering early this morning across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra. Otherwise, building high pressure is expected to bring mainly dry weather into mid-week. A weak system moving through the ridge on Tuesday will bring some clouds and perhaps some light showers to the northern mountains.
High pressure will move from southeastern Saskatchewan into northeastern North Dakota by midday and then over north central Minnesota this evening. This time of the year high pressure doesnt always been clear sky and early this morning we do have pockets of residual moisture around 2-3k ft agl over the Red River valley and some stubborn clouds from Cavalier thru Grand Forks and into the southern RRV.
Clouds will be increasing across the area this morning as the next fast moving upper level trof moves through the Great Basin and 4 corners region.
415 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 Late night sfc analysis/regional 88D data show our cold front now east of the area, extending gulfward from an area of low pressure over nern AL. With a tight gradient in place (as high pressure resides over the srn Plains) and strong CAA ongoing, observations show strong nrly winds lingering across the forecast area at this time. freezing temps look possible for the typical cold spots across our nern zones.
Current surface analysis places high pressure through the Great Plains with low over Ontario. Most locations will see highs in the teens, though some 20s are possible over the southwest where warmer air attempts to start nudging in.
A trough-ridge-trough pattern was present across the CONUS early this morning with the first trough moving into the Tennessee Valley and the other over the western US. High pressure has worked its way into the Plains with clear skies present, except for a pesky area of stratus across east central Kansas. The limiting factor looks to be the dry air present in the lowest levels.
Taking these factors into consideration, we have lowered high temperatures today by around 5 degrees Fahrenheit for most areas, which is actually still warmer than some of the most recently arriving model consensus blends. Current surface analysis places high pressure through the Great Plains with low over Ontario. Most locations will see highs in the teens, though some 20s are possible over the southwest where warmer air attempts to start nudging in.
The winds are in response to a short wave trof moving out of the Plains states.
319 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 High pressure will move from southeastern Saskatchewan into northeastern North Dakota by midday and then over north central Minnesota this evening. This time of the year high pressure doesnt always been clear sky and early this morning we do have pockets of residual moisture around 2-3k ft agl over the Red River valley and some stubborn clouds from Cavalier thru Grand Forks and into the southern RRV.
A weak cold front will drop through the region today bringing another round of north breezes and light snow shower activity to the southern Great Basin.
Periods of overnight and morning dense valley fog will be possible over the next few days as weak ridging moves into the region. A slight increase in temperatures will also accompany the weak ridging.
250 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary stalled out from south central MT to northern NE, with weak low pressure along it across northeast WY. High pressure is centered to the north of the region, across southern SK. Upper level analysis shows a trough across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin region, with clouds streaming into our area ahead of it. Cold and unsettled weather can be expected early this week as the upper trough to the west tracks southeast across the Rockies and into the central and southern Plains.
Strong north winds will develop behind the system on Tuesday as a cold front surges south.
340 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 Current surface analysis places high pressure through the Great Plains with low over Ontario. Most locations will see highs in the teens, though some 20s are possible over the southwest where warmer air attempts to start nudging in.
320 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 243 AM CST Relatively quiet weather will continue through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. This will also place a limit on the amount of nocturnal cooling tonight, so confidence on nighttime lows is medium at best with other parameters (high pressure passing across southern Wisconsin) still favorable for decent radiational cooling.
/Today through Tuesday night/ The low stratus clouds are clearing with the back edge from Mount Pleasant, TX to near El Dorado, AR and moving south at 20 mph in the wake of the upper low. Air temperatures are lower to middle 30s and falling where clear with the freezing line across SE OK right now. Over the next 24 hrs, the high will diminish to 1028mb while remaining in the Great Lakes as our pressure drops off ahead of another mid level short wave on approach. The sfc winds continue to veer to the E/SE overnight and clouds come back over the region in the SW flow ahead of the low.
530 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 There are still some lingering flurries across the eastern sections of the forecast area early this morning ahead of the cold front that was working across the region. Satellite is showing some clearing back to the west behind the front as an area of high pressure works in from the west. 06Z RAP shows drier air at 925 mb spreading over the area this morning as the high moves east and will show a decreasing trend in the clouds with a fair amount of sunshine expected for the afternoon. The area of high pressure will move off to the east overnight allowing low level warm air advection and clouds to spread back in.
409 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary stalled out from south central MT to northern NE, with weak low pressure along it across northeast WY. High pressure is centered to the north of the region, across southern SK. Upper level analysis shows a trough across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin region, with clouds streaming into our area ahead of it. Cold and unsettled weather can be expected early this week as the upper trough to the west tracks southeast across the Rockies and into the central and southern Plains.
Tuesday should be a little warmer, but with those warmer temperature winds will start increasing Tuesday afternoon along the foothills and up to Harlowton.
Expect temperatures to hover in the lower 40s for most of the day, before gradually falling into the upper 30s late in the day around sunset. Uneventful weather is expected tonight through Tuesday as high pressure shifts east through the Great Lakes, penetrating through the mid Atlantic and southeast as well. High temperatures will rebound into the lower 50s with sunshine expected.
318 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 A trough-ridge-trough pattern was present across the CONUS early this morning with the first trough moving into the Tennessee Valley and the other over the western US. High pressure has worked its way into the Plains with clear skies present, except for a pesky area of stratus across east central Kansas. The limiting factor looks to be the dry air present in the lowest levels.
526 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 For the 12/14/2020 12Z TAF Issuance Precipitation and cold frontal boundary have cleared the area this morning and continue advancing eastward. /issued 415 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020/ Late night sfc analysis/regional 88D data show our cold front now east of the area, extending gulfward from an area of low pressure over nern AL. With a tight gradient in place (as high pressure resides over the srn Plains) and strong CAA ongoing, observations show strong nrly winds lingering across the forecast area at this time. freezing temps look possible for the typical cold spots across our nern zones.
with cooler and drier air moving into the state in the wake of this exiting storm system. This upper trough will shift east Tue night to the north of AR. Some moisture looks to exist in proximity to the center of this upper trough over NWRN portions of the CWA Tue afternoon and evening. temps should remain above freezing in this region of the CWA to remain all liquid.
632 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 A strong cold front will cross the region this morning, bringing showers. High pressure will briefly bring dry weather tonight and Tuesday.
Based on these reports, current temps in the low/mid 30's across several higher elevation sites, and the radar melting layer, I think it's safe to assume that precip above 3000 feet is primarily snow this morning. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 52 39 47 33 / 0 0 50 70 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 35 45 34 / 0 0 50 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 28 49 34 45 33 / 0 0 50 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 23 49 30 43 33 / 0 0 40 80 20.
An open wave moving across the Great Basin this afternoon will have its south end close off into a closed low. However, the flow aloft will remain progressive enough to keep this low moving at a steady pace with it progged to cross over into the western Panhandle around sunrise tomorrow and exit into western Oklahoma in the afternoon. The possible exception is for areas north of a Dimmitt to Paducah line where enough lift might occur just downstream from the low to bring a brief period of precip, mostly during the morning hours. The extent of the low to mid levels will be cold enough to support snow with precip chances across this area ranging from 20 to 40 percent while chance for any significant impact from this snow will be even lower.
1158 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 Temperatures remain very cold late this morning, with very few locations warmer than 10 above zero and much of north central North Dakota still below zero. The lowering of high temperatures on the previous update is tracking well. In fact, the southern wave already appears to be producing some flurries along the Highway 12 corridor, with Hettinger reporting light snow this past hour. Taking these factors into consideration, we have lowered high temperatures today by around 5 degrees Fahrenheit for most areas, which is actually still warmer than some of the most recently arriving model consensus blends. Current surface analysis places high pressure through the Great Plains with low over Ontario. Most locations will see highs in the teens, though some 20s are possible over the southwest where warmer air attempts to start nudging in.
The trough over us will be in the Canadian Maritimes by 12z Tue and the west coast trough will be in the southern plains. Bufkit soundings show an inverted-v look at the lowest levels, so this very dry air in the low levels will have some effect on snow amounts. As ridge axis crosses the area late Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure with a moderating trend will boost temperatures back above normal by mid to late week with no real precipitation chances.
241 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 High pressure and a dry but cool airmass will remain in place across the region through Tuesday.
Some clearing of the low clouds should take place, but increasing high clouds will be streaming in from the west overnight.
A weak coastal trough and isentropic lifting will lead to low level clouds filling in overnight with MVFR CIGs.
Went with the CONSShort's handling of temperatures this afternoon since it was slightly cooler than what the blended guidance was suggesting and much closer to the trends we are seeing this afternoon. Warmer conditions expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
204 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 A strong cold front will move east of the region today, with breezy winds through the afternoon. High pressure will briefly bring dry weather tonight and Tuesday.
1038 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Main concern will be the next round of light snow tonight and Tuesday as an upper trough in the Great Basin ejects across the Rockies. Models show the system briefly becoming a closed low Tuesday over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle then moving east. Furthest west with placement is the GEFS mean from roughly McCook to Burlington, while the furthest east is the HRRR with the higher totals just east of the area, with the rest of the models somewhere in between.
With cold air being stubborn, it will take a little while longer for the lower clouds and winds to reflect what the models are putting out, so the next couple hours will continue to be monitored. Roxy MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough of cold air making its way through the Dakotas and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A ridge also lies over the Pacific Northwest and snakes its way west to off the coast of British Columbia as it extends north. Behind this lies several Pacific trough/ridge couplets.
251 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 A mid/upper trough over the Central Great Basin area today will move into the Central Rockies tonight before emerging over the Southern Plains states on Tuesday. Large-scale forcing for ascent will overspread the area during the mid to late morning hours on Tuesday as the mid/upper trough approaches from the west. Accumulations are expected to range from 1- 3 inches with the highest amounts over our southwest counties which is similar to the previous snowfall event and very similar to the previous forecast. Any lingering snow in the evening should rapidly diminish as the mid/upper trough translates eastward away from the area. Trended minimum temperatures down where confidence in accumulating snow is the highest.
Weak high pressure will move across the area into IN, as a storm system moves into the southern plains and heads for the Ohio valley.
A weak cold front passed through this morning, giving way to breezy northwest winds (the air does have a bite today). Tomorrow will be rather drab with mostly cloudy skies and highs similar to today - near the freezing mark.
The cold front has cleared the area with breezy conditions and patches of low clouds remaining behind it. On Tuesday, clouds will increase ahead of the next area of low pressure already organizing west of the region in this fast, progressive pattern.
1250 PM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Western CONUS upper trough will re-build east into the region this week, supporting mild temps and mainly dry weather after Tues in NW flow. WAA will ensue Tue, with warmer highs mainly in the 30s. Clipper system will slide SE on the front side of the ridge Wed, supporting a warmer day per deeper mixed flow.
1250 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will settle in to the area today into Tuesday.
VFR conds prevail across Nrn/C terminals on Monday, with MVFR CIGs lingering over Srn terminals associated with low stratus spiraling around an area of low pressure over the Ern CONUS. with cooler and drier air moving into the state in the wake of this exiting storm system. This upper trough will shift east Tue night to the north of AR. Some moisture looks to exist in proximity to the center of this upper trough over NWRN portions of the CWA Tue afternoon and evening. temps should remain above freezing in this region of the CWA to remain all liquid.
Clouds are expected to thin, but it will be a slow process, which may keep temps a few degrees cooler than forecast. On the 12Z sounding the freezing level is around 1600 ft AGL. On the 12Z sounding the freezing level is around 1600 ft AGL.
A cold front will switch winds to the north overnight, and increase into the 15 to 25 knot range. Strong north winds will develop behind the system on Tuesday as a cold front surges south.
Scattered, light snow showers are expected to occur along and north of Interstate 40 as a cold front quickly moves southeastward across the region through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
151 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 Early this afternoon Canadian high pressure was building into northern Minnesota, poised to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight and then depart over the Great Lakes on Tuesday. These clouds will set the stage for a tricky low temperature forecast as the high settles overhead and winds decouple. The high will drift off to the east on Tuesday with ridging still extending into the forecast area. Slightly warmer conditions are expected starting mid-week.
Broad mid-lvl warm advection will keep this mid-lvl cloud deck in the area into the overnight hours ahead of an elongated upper trough moving into the Central and Northern Plains.
255 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 Cold front will continue moving across the region this afternoon and evening before stalling across south Florida tonight amd Tuesday. Some cooler drier air will begin to move in behind the boundary tonight and Tuesday, but overall push is rather weak so lingering moisture will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies.
1252 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 A strong cold front will move east of the region today, with breezy winds through the afternoon. High pressure will briefly bring dry weather tonight and Tuesday.
Clouds are expected to thin, but it will be a slow process, which may keep temps a few degrees cooler than forecast.
High clouds were starting to enter southwest WI, but the bulk of the high clouds were still across eastern Iowa and Minnesota. Models bring the high clouds into the area, but there are some timing differences, which will have a large impact on low temperatures. Continued to lean closer to the cooler statistical guidance, but these numbers may be a bit too cold as there is not as much snow on the ground as there usually is in December, particularly across the Northwoods. This yield lows in the -5 to 0 range across north- central WI, 1 to 5 across central into northeast WI, in the 5 to 10 range across the Fox Valley, and in the low teens along the lake shore. However, with less wind than today it will feel warmer on Tuesday.
Upper ridging will return for Tuesday, bringing with it another pressure gradient to tighten up over the Beartooth Mountains and bring back high gap winds in the Livingston-Big Timber vicinity.
1048 AM MST Mon Dec 14 2020 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary stalled out from south central MT to northern NE, with weak low pressure along it across northeast WY. High pressure is centered to the north of the region, across southern SK. Upper level analysis shows a trough across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin region, with clouds streaming into our area ahead of it. Cold and unsettled weather can be expected early this week as the upper trough to the west tracks southeast across the Rockies and into the central and southern Plains.
217 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 This morning all of the observation sites were at or below freezing with low temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to the teens. The wind today has already shifted out of the south supporting a LLJ over the lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin bringing in breezy conditions today through tonight. Low temperatures tonight will a bit warmer with most locations staying in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Another upper level trough will move out of NorCal area into the Desert SW and over the TX Panhandle by Tuesday. 850 mb winds aided by a frontal passage will support wind advisory conditions for the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the Upper Trans Pecos from the aforementioned trough.
This low pressure system will move east over the southern Plains on Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 20s, though cooler valleys under partial clearing will undoubtedly reach the upper teens.
1040 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 A strong cold front will move east of the region today, with breezy winds through the afternoon. High pressure will briefly bring dry weather tonight and Tuesday.
1115 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 There are still some lingering flurries across the eastern sections of the forecast area early this morning ahead of the cold front that was working across the region. Satellite is showing some clearing back to the west behind the front as an area of high pressure works in from the west. 06Z RAP shows drier air at 925 mb spreading over the area this morning as the high moves east and will show a decreasing trend in the clouds with a fair amount of sunshine expected for the afternoon. The area of high pressure will move off to the east overnight allowing low level warm air advection and clouds to spread back in.
138 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 A strong cold front will move east of the region today, with breezy winds through the afternoon. High pressure will briefly bring dry weather tonight and Tuesday.
Therefore, there may be a light dusting of snow along the Canadian border, flurries, or nothing (albeit the low chances for snow with the feature). A warm up into the 30s Thu will be followed by the approach of a cold front in time for Fri.
However, north wind around 10 mph will keep temperatures in the low to middle 40s, only a few degrees warmer than they are now, resulting in a chilly afternoon. High pressure moves in with below normal temps.
But as we head closer to sunrise, a warm front will be approaching the coast.
/Tonight through Monday/ Ridge of high pressure is stretched through Iowa and across much of the Upper Midwest this afternoon. Despite the high pressure system, a broad area of cirrus streaming into the state ahead of an upper level short wave. Despite the upper level energy passing through not expecting any measurable precipitation with this system though there is low potential for a few flurries to occur though a vast majority of any hydrometeors should evaporate before reaching the surface with relatively dry air in the lowest 8 kft of the atmosphere.