Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Impacts to travel over the higher passes will continue however. As the trough axis pushes over the front range of the Rockies, clouds begin to clear across the lower elevations overnight while lingering near the mid and high elevations of the central and northern mountains. The heaviest precipitation has moved eastward along with the cold front. This will lead to some chilly conditions (near freezing in the low valleys) tonight before warming just a couple degrees tomorrow. On Thursday, the ridge will build over the region allowing temperatures to get closer to normal.
Daytime precipitation totals look to be on the low side, with affected areas receiving a few hundreths of an inch. Meanwhile a deepening, anomalous (4 to 5 standard deviations below the mean) upper low will wobble from the Missouri/Arkansas border into the Tennessee Valley, with our southern/eastern counties sitting on the northern periphery of this expansive low.
The MSLP gradient frankly is very weak, and the amount of instability in the lower atmosphere is pretty low. And there is no discernible 500mb trough.
/Today through Thursday/ Potent longwave trof movg into the Plains this morning already fueling a line of strong to severe storms roughly along the I-35 corridor of OK/TX. Shortly on the heels of the dryline/Pac front, the main cold push along a secondary push of energy around the base of the upper low will tap into lingering weak instability across the nrn half of the region, resulting in perhaps another line of convection later this morning. Some additional shwrs in wrap-around moisture along the swrn flank of the upper low will be possible, mainly n of I-20 through the overnight and morning hours of Thursday.
The highly amplified upper trough responsible for the persistent area of ascent is slow-moving, and likewise can expect a 36 hour window for likely rainfall across most areas.
An inverted surface trof sits just east of the Missouri River valley. Temperatures, west-river, are in the low to mid 40s, while warmer readings up into the low 50s are noted over towards the Minnesota/South Dakota border region. There is plenty of strong (90-100knt) upper level jet energy lifting out ahead of the current longwave trof in play. But, the RAP shows even stronger (130-140knt) upper level jet energy sweeping/diving down the backside of said longwave trof which has been gradually taking on a little bit of negative tilt. Downstream there is a blocking ridge/closed low pattern ongoing, too. The west-northwest winds that overtake the CWA today behind this slow-moving inverted surface trof look to stick around tonight and Thursday; strengthening some on Thursday to more of 15 to 30 mph northwest wind with gusts as high as 40 mph.
151 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Expect cool and dry weather tonight through Wednesday as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes.
An upper level ridge over the region was being pushed east and amplified as a storm system digs into the southern plains this afternoon. During the day Wednesday, rain and scattered storms will move into the Ozarks and continue to move from south to north across the area through the day as the storm system pushes up against the amplifying ridge to the east of the area. Through the day the upper level trough/low will continue to dig south. This will keep the rain axis across the Ozarks into Wednesday night as the upper level lows eastward progression slows before it begins to lift north. Rain will be ongoing Wednesday evening and through the overnight into Thursday as the upper level low becomes nearly vertically stacked and lingers across southern Missouri through the day Thursday.
Just behind the dryline was a cold front across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Southeast New Mexico. Storms had initiated along the dryline this evening and were spreading northeast within the warm sector defined between the dryline and surface/warm front.
Highs in the lower 70 are expected today with lows from the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight.
At upper levels, there is a sharp trough over the Rockies moving east. Besides this storm, the UL trough strengthened since the last forecast. The NW winds bring in some cooler air, and highs will only be able to reach into the 50s across the area. This will persist into the overnight hours, with lows near freezing. Yet, high pressure and subsequent height rises will work their way across the Plains behind the current troughing features, bringing for quiet weather until the weekend.
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Trough axis with the ongoing system is presently centered over the western half of the Dakotas, while a cold frontal boundary is situated over the central dakotas. Clearing skies and breezy winds will trail behind the trough this morning through the afternoon hours. A ridge builds in over the area Thursday night advecting warmer air into the region.
420 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Pleasant weather expected across the region into early tonight as high pressure remains across the area. Conditions will then deteriorate late tonight and Thursday as deepening trough moves into early U. and cuts off with the associated cold front moving toward the region.
152 AM MST Wed Oct 27 2021 Drier, cooler weather has settled into the area, but temperatures will quickly warm again during the second half of the week as high pressure builds back into the region. Strong subsidence under increasing high pressure aloft will persist today as the deep trough continues to track eastward through the Southern Plains. Warming aloft will also take place, but boundary layer temperatures will be slow to recover leading to highs ranging from the upper 70s across south-central Arizona to the lower 80s across the western deserts today. As the high pressure ridge continues to spread over the Southwestern U. on Thursday, the warming will be more tangible with forecast highs reaching into the upper 80s across the lower deserts.
As the trough axis pushes over the front range of the Rockies, clouds begin to clear across the lower elevations overnight while lingering near the mid and high elevations of the central and northern mountains. The heaviest precipitation has moved eastward along with the cold front. This will lead to some chilly conditions (near freezing in the low valleys) tonight before warming just a couple degrees tomorrow. On Thursday, the ridge will build over the region allowing temperatures to get closer to normal.
344 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Periods of heavy rain are expected today as a large upper level trough axis pushes east through much of the nation's mid-section. The associated surface cold front/trough will push through the forecast area today allowing continued widespread showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will begin to taper off from west to east by late evening as the bottom of the upper trough closes off and drifts southeastward into the southeastern states. Some lingering rain is possible in our far eastern counties into Thursday morning as the northern portion of the upper trough slowly ejects east of the area Thursday afternoon.
Hennig (Today through Thursday afternoon) A Pacific cold front has moved through the area bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds. The upper trough supporting the front will move across the CWA today and daytime mixing will allow for winds to increase again this afternoon before finally subsiding this evening. In fact, the season's first freezing temperatures are expected in the Marfa Plateau where the watch has been upgraded to a warning.
316 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Moisture is spreading north as sfc-500 mb flow from south to north ahead of deep trough over the central plains. As precipitation moves north the trough will edge east so that this aftn the heaviest rainfall will be along and east of the Red River valley over NW/WC MN.
313 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 A broad axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms extends within the strong meridional ascent zone across central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma, associated with the upper trof moving into the central/southern Plains early this morning. While the axis for the more widespread/heavier convection will shift into eastern Kansas during the day, an area of post-frontal showers are expected to develop within the deformation shear axis under the mid/upper trof across central Kansas. The upper trof is still progged to deepen into a closed low as it moves across the Ozarks during Thursday with precip chances lingering across southeast Kansas.
216 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 As our high pressure ridges slide to the east today, and the negatively titled trof of low pressure approaches, we'll see clouds overspreading the area. They should lower and thicken with time, but largely, the strength of the ridge and wedge of dry air (esp below 700 MB) should prevail for the day. The Low is still to our west then, so high pops are slung across the FA, albeit not all at once, thru the day Thursday, and translated eastward Thursday night, as the Low(s) slowly rotate west to east across the area. Dynamical energy combined with a sliver of instability within the heart of the low means an isolated clap of thunder cannot be ruled out, esp nearer its track, across our southern counties.
245 AM MDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Strong and gusty winds are expected today across NE Montana with an upper trough tracking through the region.
Trough axis with the ongoing system is presently centered over the western half of the Dakotas, while a cold frontal boundary is situated over the central dakotas. Clearing skies and breezy winds will trail behind the trough this morning through the afternoon hours. A ridge builds in over the area Thursday night advecting warmer air into the region.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) A Pacific cold front has moved through the area bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds. The upper trough supporting the front will move across the CWA today and daytime mixing will allow for winds to increase again this afternoon before finally subsiding this evening. In fact, the season's first freezing temperatures are expected in the Marfa Plateau where the watch has been upgraded to a warning.
A weakening ridge of high pressure will slide off to the east today, providing us with a cool east breeze and quiet weather. Tonight clouds will thicken and lower ahead of low pressure crossing the Ozarks. Lows should range from the low-mid 40s in the Bluegrass to around 50 in the Bowling Green region. With upper ridging over the West and East Coasts, a large upper trough will cut south through the center of the CONUS. Embedded in this trough, a closed stacked low moves east along the MO/AR border increasing precipitation chances over the CWA as isentropically lifted moisture moves into the region.
I knocked down highs a bit from the initialized NBM guidance, following a bit more toward cooler guidance with 50s for highs, especially considering the past couple of days. Once the trough axis passes, subsidence should act rather quickly to give us some decent clearing later tonight, and a sunny day (finally) for Thursday.
This rain was driven by a long fetch of isentropic ascent ahead of a high-amplitude upper level longwave trough. This trough had both a northern stream and southern stream component, and over the next 36 hours the southern stream will become the dominant feature and bring widespread rain across the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures are mainly in the lower 50s with light winds and mostly clear skies. Aloft, GOES Water Vapor Imagery depicts a massive 544mb upper low associated with the Nor'Easter off the New England Coast with a deepening trough seen coming together just to the Lee of the Rockies.
Periods of heavy rain are expected today as a large upper level trough axis pushes east through much of the nation's mid-section. The associated surface cold front/trough will push through the forecast area today allowing continued widespread showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will begin to taper off from west to east by late evening as the bottom of the upper trough closes off and drifts southeastward into the southeastern states. Some lingering rain is possible in our far eastern counties into Thursday morning as the northern portion of the upper trough slowly ejects east of the area Thursday afternoon.
608 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Patchy MVFR cigs to continue ahead of a cold front and associated tstms presently ongoing across N TX and ern OK. /Today through Thursday/ Potent longwave trof movg into the Plains this morning already fueling a line of strong to severe storms roughly along the I-35 corridor of OK/TX. Shortly on the heels of the dryline/Pac front, the main cold push along a secondary push of energy around the base of the upper low will tap into lingering weak instability across the nrn half of the region, resulting in perhaps another line of convection later this morning. Some additional shwrs in wrap-around moisture along the swrn flank of the upper low will be possible, mainly n of I-20 through the overnight and morning hours of Thursday.
440 AM PDT Wed Oct 27 2021 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring warmer and drier weather through Thursday.
Showers will continue to spread north ahead of the trough bringing widespread rainfall to the area. Rain will continue to move north and spread east as 500 mb trough shifts east thru the day. Moisture is spreading north as sfc-500 mb flow from south to north ahead of deep trough over the central plains. As precipitation moves north the trough will edge east so that this aftn the heaviest rainfall will be along and east of the Red River valley over NW/WC MN.
919 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 A drier and cooler air mass has settled into the region briefly as high pressure sits over the eastern gulf. Latest surface observations are reporting temperatures around 10-15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. These cooler temps and lower humidity is making for a very comfortable morning. Temperatures will top out around average in the low to mid 80's this afternoon. Light winds less than 10 knots expected today as high pressure settles in over the eastern gulf. Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate early Thursday morning as a strong cold front approaches the region from the northwest.
Drier, cooler weather has settled into the area, but temperatures will quickly warm again during the second half of the week as high pressure builds back into the region. Strong subsidence under increasing high pressure aloft will persist today as the deep trough continues to track eastward through the Southern Plains. Warming aloft will also take place, but boundary layer temperatures will be slow to recover leading to highs ranging from the upper 70s across south-central Arizona to the lower 80s across the western deserts today. As the high pressure ridge continues to spread over the Southwestern U. on Thursday, the warming will be more tangible with forecast highs reaching into the upper 80s across the lower deserts.
631 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 A broad axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms extends within the strong meridional ascent zone across central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma, associated with the upper trof moving into the central/southern Plains early this morning. While the axis for the more widespread/heavier convection will shift into eastern Kansas during the day, an area of post-frontal showers are expected to develop within the deformation shear axis under the mid/upper trof across central Kansas. The upper trof is still progged to deepen into a closed low as it moves across the Ozarks during Thursday with precip chances lingering across southeast Kansas.
/issued 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021/ Pleasant weather expected across the region into early tonight as high pressure remains across the area. Conditions will then deteriorate late tonight and Thursday as deepening trough moves into early U. and cuts off with the associated cold front moving toward the region.
Highs today will be 1 to 5 degrees warmer in the valleys and 4 to 10 degrees warmer in the mountains.
A second, negatively tilted trough continues to dig over the Great Plains, producing scattered severe weather across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, which will eventually reach portions of the Gulf Coast this evening. An expansive ridge builds across the Western half of the United States behind this trough. Skies are mostly sunny across the island chain, with temperatures quickly rising into the low and mid 80s, well on their way to the advertised mid to upper 80s for this afternoon. From synopsis, low pressure off the New England coastline will result in light to gentle west to northwest breezes across the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.
The main weather story is the cold front that is expected to push through the Florida Keys on Thursday into Thursday night.
Warmer and drier conditions are expected on Thursday.
Will keep highs forecast in the lower 70s in valleys and middle to upper 60s atop the higher plateau areas. This will change quickly by this evening as the upper low deepens over the Ozarks and pivots into the mid/lower Mississippi Valley, becoming negatively tilted as it does so. A warm front will lift northeast across central and northern Alabama overnight from the southwest, bringing widespread rain showers and perhaps a few isolated storms as deep layer synoptic lift finally can tap into the rapidly moistening air mass. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible and capable of toppling a few trees and creating isolated power outages, especially along the higher terrain of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Building high pressure kicks off a warming and drying trend Wednesday and Thursday.
Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny today with warmer temperatures. An upper level ridge out of the eastern Pacific will continue to move slowly to the east. Highs will be a little warmer with readings in the 50s and 60s. Skies will scatter out this evening, but there could be patchy freezing fog in spots in the valleys. By Thursday, upper level ridging will continue over the forecast area.
A strong upper-level storm system continues to take shape over the Southern Plains this morning as it tracks toward the lower Mississippi Valley and eventually across the entire Southeastern United States later in the week. This will change quickly by this evening as the upper low deepens over the Ozarks and pivots into the mid/lower Mississippi Valley, becoming negatively tilted as it does so. A warm front will lift northeast across central and northern Alabama overnight from the southwest, bringing widespread rain showers and perhaps a few isolated storms as deep layer synoptic lift finally can tap into the rapidly moistening air mass. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible and capable of toppling a few trees and creating isolated power outages, especially along the higher terrain of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
A brief ridge will move in Thursday, leading to the warmest temperatures of the period.
Rain will continue to move north and spread east as 500 mb trough shifts east thru the day. Moisture is spreading north as sfc-500 mb flow from south to north ahead of deep trough over the central plains. As precipitation moves north the trough will edge east so that this aftn the heaviest rainfall will be along and east of the Red River valley over NW/WC MN.
1013 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Cool and dry weather will prevail as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes today and tonight.
Have gone ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch over the western foothills to High Wind Warnings and Advisories, in effect from this morning through the evening.
High pressure will build into the Great Basin region allowing temperatures to climb to above normal over the weekend.
Rain will likely return by Thursday night with the approach and passage of deep low pressure. Cool and cloudy weather will continue this morning with the Upr OH on the wrn flank of deep low pressure just off the east coast. That system will continue digging newd today as another deep low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect high pressure to build ovr the region today and tonight as those two systems progress. By Thursday night, the low will progress into the Tennessee Valley, placing our forecast area in deep southeast flow between this low pressure and high pressure centered across Quebec. This will advect a tongue of much warmer, high-moisture air into the Upper Ohio Valley from the Mid-Atlantic.
1252 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 A broad axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms extends within the strong meridional ascent zone across central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma, associated with the upper trof moving into the central/southern Plains early this morning. While the axis for the more widespread/heavier convection will shift into eastern Kansas during the day, an area of post-frontal showers are expected to develop within the deformation shear axis under the mid/upper trof across central Kansas. The upper trof is still progged to deepen into a closed low as it moves across the Ozarks during Thursday with precip chances lingering across southeast Kansas.
Warm advection in advance of the ridge building in across the eastern Great Basin will bring extensive cloud cover and a chance of light precip to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming today.
The upper trough across the center of the CONUS continues to slowly progress to the east this afternoon with a surface cold front and low pressure currently centered over the forecast area.
243 PM MDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Crazy Mountain RAWs has consistently been gusting above 58 mph, signaling the higher winds aloft, but it's taken until ~1pm to really see some 50+ mph gusts mix down to the surface. Thursday will be pretty mild as upper ridging builds across the region.
There is still orographic cloudiness and light snow showers over the high mountains. The clouds and scattered light snow showers should continue over the high mountains this evening and well past midnight, then decrease by Thursday morning.
Temperatures have also been much cooler with highs so far only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clear skies, dry air, and diminishing winds will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s across much of the area, with some locations in the lower 50s.
347 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 The much anticipated cold front has pushed into our western zones, and a good portion of our area ahead of this line has entered the warm sector thanks to a northward surging warm front.
This system is will be closing off into an upper low as it moves into the Missouri/Arkansas region on Thursday. On the backside of the upper trough, strong low to mid level northerly winds have developed as expected. The High Wind Warning that was issued yesterday afternoon was expanded a little farther east today in anticipation of the stronger winds but so far only a couple locations have gusted to 58-60 mph through midday. Will let the High Wind Warning expire on time later this afternoon as the winds will be diminishing as we get closer to sunset. Northerly winds will stay up a bit Thursday night but will be weakening with time as the upper low continues to pull away from the region and upper level ridging builds in from the west.
131 PM MDT Wed Oct 27 2021 The upper trough continues to push eastward, taking its rain and clouds with it. Meanwhile, an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. With limited impacts from gusty winds overnight, combined with the low to marginal likelihood of advisory-criteria wind as depicted by the ensembles, will forgo headlines.
Some of the highest expected winds have been knocked down somewhat as the amount of mixing has been lower than was previously anticipated, which is hampering any potential of seeing High Wind criteria winds in our area. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Strong and gusty winds are expected today across NE Montana with an upper trough tracking through the region.