Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
633 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. \/HODANISH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PNW INTO SRN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
QPF IN MOST GUIDANCE IS UNINSPIRING, LIKELY OWING TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT, BUT INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY AIR FAIRLY EASILY. MIXED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WAA THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES (SETTING RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY). ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SPILL OVER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
437 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
353 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. FRIDAY'S WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POSITION OF THE RIDGE NOT CHANGING MUCH.
SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES FRI. MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA/NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT AND STAYS IN THE AREA SUN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY(TENN/ARKANSAS.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL SINK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH A MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF IT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME TROUGHING ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING. SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A VERY DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 109-113 RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MAINLY FROM GILA BEND WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LA PAZ COUNTY.
402 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SOME AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF CANADA DIGS INTO MONTANA BRINGING A FRONT WITH IT. THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH DETERIORATES AS WELL AS THE RIDGE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY AND OVERALL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AND INCREASE SOME AS WE MOVE BACK TO A MORE DIURNAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH ENHANCEMENTS OCCASIONALLY FROM RIPPLES IN THE WEAK TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
337 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW NEAR GROUND AND ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRYING OUT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
413 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AND TROUGHING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. DAMPENING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT MOVES IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
Upper level low pressure currently centered along the northwest California coast will gradually move inland into the Pacific Northwest later tonight through Friday. More significant warming is expected on the weekend as ridging centered over the Four Corners region will expand westward over California.
314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE MO OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WAS CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE DVN CWA. THESE WINDS WERE PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. RIDGING ALOFT WILL SPILL EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AND ATTENDANT UPPER RIDGE AXIS SNAKES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN ABNORMALLY FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MID AUGUST IS EVIDENT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SO WILL START WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE INTO IN THE SOUTH AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
419 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN NE FL IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM OUR EAST.
132 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY.
144 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON FRIDAY.
142 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 AFTER A FOGGY START IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO NY AND PA.
230 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
157 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE VERY HOT WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
410 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 Dry conditions will prevail for the end of the work week and into the weekend as high amplitude upper ridge remains anchored over the western 2/3 of the US. a deep trough is poised off the west US coast and will move into the Pacific NW and begin to flatten the ridge as it moves through the northern tier.
145 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING WEST INTO ARIZONA.
AIRMASS HAS LACKED FORCING BUT THE APPROACHING TROUGH NOW PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FEEL THAT AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 925 TEMPS ARE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER ON THE ECMWF AND NAM FROM THE CONVECTION MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS CONVECTION AND 925 TEMPS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 20S CELSIUS.
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
153 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW NEAR GROUND AND ALOFT.
406 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STOUT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WITH SURGES OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING CLOCKWISE. THE 00Z SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY.
242 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN MORE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER THE RIDGE AND ADOPT A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE LACK OF PATTERN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST, AND SO THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR WILL ALSO BE GRADUAL.
A DECREASE IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VERY WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTREMELY HOT IN THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
/ISSUED 231 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
More showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight as a large trough begins to move towards Oregon. A strong cold front will push through the region by later Friday and will cause another round of strong gusty winds to the region.
315 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SEASONABLE WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT THE SURFACE DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT SO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS OBSERVED TODAY MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN-WITH JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO SEA BREEZE.
322 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.
The cloud cover associated with this feature should keep minimum temperatures warmer compared to last night. A weak cold front will swing through the Northern Rockies on Tuesday. A trough will encompass the majority of the western U.
A STATIONARY FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW KS THOUGH NRN MISSOURI WAS SEPARATING AIRMASSES WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER MOIST/LOWER CLOUD BASE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WERE ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE COOLER AIR, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AT THE EDGE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, ALL WITH SLOW NORTHEAST STORM MOTIONS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS.
201 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
310 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. SO LEANED ON THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY.
12Z NAM SUGGESTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OVERLAP NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE ENERGY IS PART OF A GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING BACK IN OVER THE SWRN CONUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS KEEPING THE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE NORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LIFTING OF THE DEEP TROF OVER THE SW INTO THE GREAT LAKES, THE WARMER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD.
AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST.
323 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1029 MB) IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS.
327 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE GULF OF AK AND UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS RATHER ACTIVE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA.
THERE IS AN INVERTED TROF OR EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF AXIS. /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ INVERTED TROF CURRENTLY OVER SE LA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD TODAY AND TONIGHT. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE MORNING AS WELL. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER C AND N TX INTO OK. THE RIDGE MAY BREAKDOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TROF AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. MODELS STILL INDICATE A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY. INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TUESDAY. GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO AUSTIN. TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY.
/ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low over southern California this morning will lift northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow morning. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy skies will be in the lower 60s.
A strong cold front is expected tonight and will likely return our temperatures into the 60s Tuesday. Cooler and breezy weather is in the forecast for Tuesday.
517 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
407 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TUESDAY.
ALL MODELS AND THE SREF MEAN SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT TO BE LOCATED NEAR I-80 TOMORROW. TUE: CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS N. AND IF THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS OR REFORMS FURTHER N. TONIGHT: MVFR STRATUS CIGS SHOULD INVADE AND DEGRADE TO IFR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH.
334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MOST OF APRIL, THOSE LOWS WOULD ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.
250 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INVERTED SFC TROF. PATTERN THEREAFTER MARKED BY A SW TO NE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EJECTING AHEAD OF A DIGGING WRN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. SLOWLY ERODING THE RIDGE ALOFT.
118 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED AT THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD LOCATIONS.
/ISSUED 428 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ ONE MORE RELATIVELY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE UNTIL CHANGES UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO LATE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST MOVES ONSHORE AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BOOST THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUE.
316 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT OUTFLOW WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND TRENDED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BY 07-09Z THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO SLOW POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARRIVING AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
WITH RH VALUES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S AND WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL NEED TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
337 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
1221 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR BY 22Z TODAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
558 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015 A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of Missouri.
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND BY 12Z IT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM AND HI-RES ARW AND NMM WOULD INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD CONTINUE COMING NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT BRING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUITE AS FAR NORTH WHICH KEEPS THE CONVECTION CONFINED MORE INTO IOWA. THESE MODELS ARE ALSO WEAKER WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
257 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS LOWS WL RANGE FM THE M50S TO THE M60S.
220 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED AS THEY APPROACH THE DOWNEAST REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW DOWNEAST MAINE TO TOP OUT AROUND 70.
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MASSIVE RIDGE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
415 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 PERSISTENT DRY INFLOW IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS HAS KEPT RAIN AT BAY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE INFLUENCE FROM BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
THE TELECONNECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVES WILL BE TO CARVE OUT A BROAD SCALE TROF IN THE WEST. AND ALSO TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. WE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. AND UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
248 PM MST MON MAY 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS KEEPING SFC WINDS OUT OF THE E/SE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 PERSISTENT DRY INFLOW IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN GETTING CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.
225 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN DROP SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA BY 06Z TUESDAY /2300 PDT TONIGHT/.
THAT SHOULD PERSIST AND EDGE EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW DURING THE NIGHT.
EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE DAY SHRA POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO FAR SWRN/SCNTRL SD AS LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA LIFTS THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA) SHIFTING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY ON. SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CWFA AS CNTRL ROCKIES LOW BECOMES MORE IN PHASE WITH STRONG UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW.
129 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.