Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For those locales near or to the west of the trough/dryline, weak variable to northerly flow persists.
240 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent across the region as South Florida remains under the western periphery of Atlantic subtropical high pressure. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the east to the lower (or perhaps even mid) 90s for western inland areas.
Surface analysis shows the Upper Ohio Valley currently resides in southwest flow channeled between a large area of high pressure centered across the Atlantic and a deep low across the southern Hudson Bay / James Bay. In the upper-levels, ridging currently prevails across much of the East Coast, with a large upper-level low centered in the Ozarks.
226 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 As low pressure aloft drifts across Missouri into the Middle to Upper Mississippi River Valley, we'll see abundant, deep sourced moisture with unsettled weather showers/storms slung northward across our area for the duration of the forecast.
213 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level pattern remains largely unchanged from yesterday, with a low-amplitude trough over the Pacific Northwest.
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms as weak troughing persists inland. A cold front approaches the area late in the week, pushing through this weekend.
Mid-level ridge off the east coast coupled with cut-off low centered over the lower Missouri River valley will continue to induce southerly flow and provide a moist tropical airmass today.
345 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an open flow from the Gulf of Mexico into our region.
1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level low pressure over NE Oklahoma/NW Arkansas will continue to slowly drift off to the NE with time.
Temperatures will again be in the middle 70 to the low 80s this afternoon. The upper low that across the plains was continuing its sluggish movement to the northeast and was generally located over far southwestern Missouri. As the low tracks to the northeast through today, showers and thunderstorms will impact the region. The upper low will continue to make its was across the state tonight with scattered showers overnight.
321 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 To the west, a slowly propagating upper level trough is continuing to push warm moist air over the Ohio Valley.
Broad upper low remains over the region early this morning with multiple smaller scale upper vortices noted on latest satellite imagery. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving upper low that has affected the area for the last several days have mostly dissipated as the sun has set this evening.
Large scale pattern featuring a broad trough over the Pacific NW states extending into the northern Plains. The aforementioned cutoff low will lift northeast and be absorbed into main flow as upper level high pressure ridging builds over the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, upstream trough over the northwestern states will dig southward and eventually stretch all the away to the southern CA coastline with a series of vort max flowing through.
Continued warm and humid with a chance of afternoon and early evening Upper level ridging is forecast to remain strong over the SE states through mid-week. The ridge axis runs from SSW to NNE along the coast. Upper ridging will continue in place, but with the ridge axis expected to be over portions SC and eastern NC.
242 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The influence of moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico and a large upper low over Texas kicked off a muggy, showery pattern yesterday. As the upper low from Texas drifts to the Mid Ms Valley, a pronounced dry slot will lift across Middle Tennessee for this afternoon. That means generally lower coverage of showers than yesterday, more breaks in the clouds, and warmer temperatures.
A stationary front south of the CWA will advect northward today as a warm front. Low level moisture should move into the region as well with surface dew points reaching the low to mid 60s. The stagnant upper pattern of nearly stationary upper level longwave trof over the western CONUS, with a large broad upper level ridge in place over the central portions of the country is forecast to persist during the first couple of days of the out period.
The influence of moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico and a large upper low over Texas kicked off a muggy, showery pattern yesterday. As the upper low from Texas drifts to the Mid Ms Valley, a pronounced dry slot will lift across Middle Tennessee for this afternoon. That means generally lower coverage of showers than yesterday, more breaks in the clouds, and warmer temperatures.
555 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an open flow from the Gulf of Mexico into our region. The upper RIDGE is expected to amplify over the central CONUS as the mostly cutoff storm system slowly drifts northeastward into central MO this afternoon, to the MS River late tonight, and into east- central IL by Tuesday afternoon. TES The GEFS and ENS H500 mean heights continue to show the upper RIDGE dominating the central CONUS for much of the period, including our region.
High pressure aloft and somewhat drier air mass should allow today to be a quiet weather day. Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent across the region as South Florida remains under the western periphery of Atlantic subtropical high pressure. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the east to the lower (or perhaps even mid) 90s for western inland areas.
/Issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of northeast OK on the southwestern flank of broad upper level low, which was centered near OK/KS/MO borders. The upper low will continue to gradually lift northeast with lingering trough axis remaining over the forecast area Tuesday. The trend will be for lessening shower and thunderstorm chances by mod to late week with upper ridge amplifying over the Southern Plains, providing us with our first taste of summer weather with temperatures warming a bit above normal and humidity remaining high. Still appears a frontal boundary will push south into the area by the weekend underneath the strengthening ridge and as such wold expect any thunderstorm chances with the front to remain fairly limited.
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region in the wake of a departing cold front, with current temperatures hovering in the 60s to low 70s. By daybreak, expect the aforementioned cold front to re-establish itself as a northward moving warm front, allowing mostly sunny skies and quiet conditions to once again prevail throughout the day. While southerly winds should be notably lighter than yesterday, still have highs climbing into the low to mid 90s with the aid of WAA and strong upper level ridging. Look for much of the same Tuesday, as upper level ridging maintains its influence over the region, allowing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures to continue.
304 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 A surface cold front was working across the forecast area this morning.
Upper ridging along and off the Atlantic seaboard will slowly build westward. A few embedded mid-level impulses rounding the base of the trough should help to enhance convection and allow it to linger into the late evening and possibly overnight, especially our northernmost zones. Lows tonight in the lower 70s.
An upper level trough will weaken over the first half of the week. Another round of showers and new upper trough will reach the Pacific Northwest around the end of the week.
Typical June weather is forecast through the week with high pressure anchored over northern Mexico and West Texas. An upper level ridge will continue to progress east across the area today, bringing a continued warming/drying trend. Temperatures on Tuesday will be even warmer across the eastern plains thanks to downslope winds.
The strongest winds are likely to occur along the coast and in the higher elevations of the North and East Bay. In these areas, expect west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with the potential for gust of 45 mph (up to 55 mph in the peaks/ridges and locations such as Altamont and Patterson passes). These conditions are due to a deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest.
440 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Our cold front has made it into MN along a line from roughly Duluth- St Cloud-Marshall, and that is about all it will progress eastward as it has lost its upper level support, being replaced by additional upper level ridging from the south. A nearly identical temperature scheme is expected for today and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s in western WI with highs in the low to mid 90s in our MN portion, possibly into the upper 90s near the SD border. Minimum temperatures both this morning and Tuesday morning will run in the mid 60s to mid 70s (except for a small area of lower 60s this morning for areas to the west of the cold front before it retreats).
An upper ridge builds into the area today with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies. The trough will combine with several ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms. Afternoon dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s.
516 AM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level pattern remains largely unchanged from yesterday, with a low-amplitude trough over the Pacific Northwest. Track of this low is expected to be farther north, and so while strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday, better chances exist to the north.
415 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The active pattern continues across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a pesky upper level low spins over Arkansas. This low will slowly move northward over the next day or two. I expect those to run on the higher side and perhaps over 2 inches at some point over the next couple of days.
Temperatures will again be in the middle 70 to the low 80s this afternoon. The upper low that across the plains was continuing its sluggish movement to the northeast and was generally located over far southwestern Missouri. As the low tracks to the northeast through today, showers and thunderstorms will impact the region.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday, along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across central and southern Vermont.
621 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level low over NE OK/NW AR will continue to lift very slowly to the NE through the period. Main driver continues to be a slow moving, cut off upper low, and associated upper trough currently centered over NE Oklahoma.
Rain chances will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. Troughing will develop over the region late this week supporting higher PoPs once again. The overall pattern is not going to change much from yesterday, featuring a very warm and moist air mass, typical of mid to late summer with some upper ridging over the eastern part of the forecast area. The axis of an upper level ridge will be just east of the forecast area on Tuesday. By the late afternoon and evening, we should see showers and thunderstorms diminish with NVA over the region and upper ridging building back to the west. Mid-week, an upper level ridge will build westward back over the region.
Current surface analysis places low over north-central Wyoming, with warm front stretching through southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota. This afternoon into tonight, aforementioned warm front will continue to lift northerly into south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. The fly in the ointment may be modestly increasing heights/weak ridging, but think the warm front may overcome that allowing storms to develop. Large hail/strong wind gusts will be possible, but also think there may be a modest tornado threat in the vicinity of the warm front in the late afternoon/early evening, especially in the initial storms. On Tuesday, trough over the west coast deepens with upper level flow becoming more south/southwesterly over our area, while a notable short wave swings through the trough and approaches our area.
434 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Summary: Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening following the lifting of a warm front across the area. A cold front has been slowing sweeping across the CWA this morning. The exception will be locations adjacent to Lake Superior, where temps will be 5- 10 degrees cooler. Model guidance places the highest values of MLCAPE around 2000-2800 J/kg. While tornadoes are unlikely, there is the possibility of a weak tornado or two spinning up given the low level shear profile.
An upper level trough continues to unwind and eject northeast across the south-central and central Plains states through tonight. Surface ridging remains over the Atlantic stretching west into the southeastern U. In tandem with the upper level trough, deep layer moist, southerly flow is present setting the stage for heavy rainfall with isolated thunderstorms southeast of I-65 overnight. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to perhaps middle 70's.
/22/ Today and tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the Ozarks. A dry slot wrapping around the low was currently moving over our CWA and knocked PWATs down below an inch and a half from near two inches per the 00Z Mon JAN sounding. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing east along the Gulf coast states that is progged to strengthen today but provide a low level southerly flow that will bring a surge of lower 70 dew points and help increase PWATs back to near two inches this afternoon. Tonight the closed low will continue tracking slowly to the northeast and slowly weakening.
611 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper-level low that has been in place across the southern and central plains for the past few days will slowly start to move eastward today as a ridge starts to build in over the southern Rockies and High Plains.
453 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Current surface analysis places low over north-central Wyoming, with warm front stretching through southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota. This afternoon into tonight, aforementioned warm front will continue to lift northerly into south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. The fly in the ointment may be modestly increasing heights/weak ridging, but think the warm front may overcome that allowing storms to develop. Large hail/strong wind gusts will be possible, but also think there may be a modest tornado threat in the vicinity of the warm front in the late afternoon/early evening, especially in the initial storms. On Tuesday, trough over the west coast deepens with upper level flow becoming more south/southwesterly over our area, while a notable short wave swings through the trough and approaches our area.
408 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Today and tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the Ozarks. A dry slot wrapping around the low was currently moving over our CWA and knocked PWATs down below an inch and a half from near two inches per the 00Z Mon JAN sounding. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing east along the Gulf coast states that is progged to strengthen today but provide a low level southerly flow that will bring a surge of lower 70 dew points and help increase PWATs back to near two inches this afternoon. Tonight the closed low will continue tracking slowly to the northeast and slowly weakening.
730 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week.
These are tied to a +50kt jet streak on the eastern periphery of the much talked about upper low to our west this morning. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 70 85 70 85 / 70 50 60 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 68 85 69 84 / 70 40 60 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 82 69 84 68 84 / 80 40 60 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 84 65 84 / 60 30 60 40 60.
Plenty of moisture to tap into today with forcing for ascent coming from outflow boundaries, the sea breeze and some contribution to lift as well from an upper low off to our northwest. Upper ridging along and off the Atlantic seaboard will slowly build westward. A few embedded mid-level impulses rounding the base of the trough should help to enhance convection and allow it to linger into the late evening and possibly overnight, especially our northernmost zones. Lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Continued warm and humid with a chance of afternoon and early Deep S-SWLY flow between the subtropical ridge centered over the SE US Coast and a slow eastward moving upper low/trough, currently over the Central Plains/Mid Ms Vally, will keep a very moist and humid airmass(PWATS 1. Highs today will be a bit cooler due to higher moisture content and cloud cover across the area. Lows generally in the lower 70s. Upper ridging will continue in place, but with the ridge axis expected to be over portions SC and eastern NC.
700 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms as weak troughing persists inland. A cold front approaches the area late in the week, pushing through this weekend. The fog has lifted to a low stratus deck, and the low stratus should slowly mix out through the next couple of hours. A min in tsra possible Tue, as ridging builds into ENC, with both NAM and ECM indicating sparse precip covg. Temps a bit warmer, with highs 85-90.
Our cold front has made it into MN along a line from roughly Duluth- St Cloud-Marshall, and that is about all it will progress eastward as it has lost its upper level support, being replaced by additional upper level ridging from the south. A nearly identical temperature scheme is expected for today and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s in western WI with highs in the low to mid 90s in our MN portion, possibly into the upper 90s near the SD border. Minimum temperatures both this morning and Tuesday morning will run in the mid 60s to mid 70s (except for a small area of lower 60s this morning for areas to the west of the cold front before it retreats).
403 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Daily rain chances will begin to decrease toward the middle to end to the week as an upper level ridge tries to build into the region.
/issued 415 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ The active pattern continues across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a pesky upper level low spins over Arkansas. This low will slowly move northward over the next day or two. I expect those to run on the higher side and perhaps over 2 inches at some point over the next couple of days.
/Today through Tuesday/ Upper low continues to churn just to the n of our region this morning. Depending upon how things play out during this timeframe, we may need to extend the watch through at least a portion of Tuesday, as several models indicate continued impulses/rounds of convection even as the upper low continues to drift newd. As for temps, have stayed close to NBM numbers both today and Tuesday, which keep our nrn areas cooler due to expected convection, and our srn areas warmer where peeks of sunshine and less convective coverage will allow for more heating.
Max temps will be a couple degrees lower given the cloudiness but still reaching the lower 90s interior and mid to upper 80s coast. Subtropical Atlc ridge will support SE winds 10-15 knots, becoming enhanced by the sea breeze circulation near the coast 15-17 knots.
/issued 403 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ Daily rain chances will begin to decrease toward the middle to end to the week as an upper level ridge tries to build into the region.
Somewhat similar conditions to yesterday, except slightly warmer across the northern-third of the forecast area.
High pressure will continue to influence our weather through the upcoming week with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather. Highs today will be slightly cooler than what occurred over the weekend.
655 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Summary: Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening following the lifting of a warm front across the area. A cold front has been slowing working its way across the CWA this morning. The exception will be locations adjacent to Lake Superior, where temps will be 5- 10 degrees cooler. Model guidance places the highest values of MLCAPE around 2000-2800 J/kg. While tornadoes are unlikely, there is the possibility of a weak tornado or two spinning up given the low level shear profile.
With PWATS at well above normal values and dewpoints in the lower 70s, there is definitely adequate fuel for more widespread convective activity through the remainder of the afternoon. /Issued 740 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ The deep upper closed low and trough will expand to the east through the short term. Layers of mid/high clouds and east to southeast winds should help keep max temperatures in the low 80s far north to low 90s east central both days.
With high pressure at 500mb and the 500mb temperature at -5C, went ahead and agreed with the National Blend of Models and removed PoPs for today. The rest of the day should be quiet, especially with the high cloud cover over the western portion of the area. High pressure aloft and somewhat drier air mass should allow today to be a quiet weather day. Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent across the region as South Florida remains under the western periphery of Atlantic subtropical high pressure. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the east to the lower (or perhaps even mid) 90s for western inland areas.
Water vapor imagery shows upper level low sitting over the corners of Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri early this morning. Today will be cloudy with vorticity rotating around the upper level low.
436 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Summary: Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening following the lifting of a warm front across the area. A cold front has been slowing sweeping across the CWA this morning. The exception will be locations adjacent to Lake Superior, where temps will be 5- 10 degrees cooler. Model guidance places the highest values of MLCAPE around 2000-2800 J/kg. While tornadoes are unlikely, there is the possibility of a weak tornado or two spinning up given the low level shear profile.
A low pressure system off the coast of southern California will kick through the region Tuesday.
Tonight and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front stalling out over northwest Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula early this afternoon.
, while a weak upper level trough was centered along the KS/MO border. A few thunderstorms were ongoing over parts of Missouri and Kansas in association with the upper trough and pockets of weak surface convergence.
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region in the wake of a departing cold front, with current temperatures hovering in the 60s to low 70s. By daybreak, expect the aforementioned cold front to re-establish itself as a northward moving warm front, allowing mostly sunny skies and quiet conditions to once again prevail throughout the day. While southerly winds should be notably lighter than yesterday, still have highs climbing into the low to mid 90s with the aid of WAA and strong upper level ridging. Look for much of the same Tuesday, as upper level ridging maintains its influence over the region, allowing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures to continue.
With no pattern change anticipated and mid level ridge building, will not expect conditions to be much different tomorrow.