Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another warm day is expected today! Highs will again climb into the upper 80s with dewpoints on the high end as well causing muggy conditions throughout the day. /JNE/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Ahead of a cold front's arrival, another warm and humid day is expected across the region today. As the evening and overnight hours progress, the cold front sagging southward becomes less favorably aligned with the mean flow aloft, and severe potential should drop off.
904 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 A cold front will move southeast through the region today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and breezy conditions are expected on Friday.
457 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Today and Tonight: Ahead of a cold front's arrival, another warm and humid day is expected across the region today. As the evening and overnight hours progress, the cold front sagging southward becomes less favorably aligned with the mean flow aloft, and severe potential should drop off.
High pressure building in from the west will bring a rapid warming trend into the weekend.
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front that is forecast to move through the region. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 59 77 50 79 / 50 70 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 57 73 47 75 / 60 80 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 55 73 46 75 / 60 80 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 53 69 41 71 / 50 80 20 0 0.
Precipitation won't make a return in the short term, thanks to the building-in of an upper-level ridge and a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer. Thus dewpoints will be a bit higher, but temperatures will be on the increase as well thanks to warmer air aloft, particularly across central SD (highs in the 80s near/west of the MO River).
Brisk northwest flow and weak cold air advection will keep temperatures in check, with readings warming to near-normal values in the low to mid 60s. On Friday, flow will turn southerly, and give us a glimpse of the warmer weather to arrive for the start of the weekend. Expect lower 70s along the Buffalo ridge, with 60's elsewhere.
(Today and tonight) Upper low just west of El Paso is expected to move south into Northern Mexico tonight. Cooler tonight with lows mainly the mid 50s.
350 AM PDT Thu Apr 29 2021 High pressure along the West Coast will continue the warming trend with the heat peaking on Friday.
/issued 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021/ Upper low continues to slowly churn across the Sun Country of West Texas early this morning with models having initialized this feature more coherently than yesterday morning. Breezy northerly surface winds will persist until high pressure settles in to our north late this afternoon and evening finally allowing a clockwise shift in wind direction during the evening. However, another surge of cooler air from the north will back winds once again to a northeasterly direction overnight.
645 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper low just west of El Paso is expected to move south into Northern Mexico tonight. Cooler tonight with lows mainly the mid 50s.
Sunny and much warmer today and Friday, the warmest so far this year. Upper ridge over our area today and Friday will shift east Friday night.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front from the Ohio Valley back through Southeast Missouri, Northwest Arkansas and back into the Hill Country of Texas. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 80s across extreme northeast Mississippi and 70s elsewhere where precipitation/cloud cover has kept temperatures down somewhat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish through the remainder of tonight as the cold front moves through the Mid- South and drier air filters into the area.
The ridge across the region will start to flatten out tomorrow morning, bringing more westerly flow. Temperatures aloft also continue to increase, which will help push temperatures Friday into the upper 70s and 80s for lower elevations, with the highest peaks even reaching into the 50s.
Much warmer air will be pushing in from the west tonight into Friday with maybe some mid and high levels moving over. Otherwise, the surface pressure gradient will tighten up on Friday along with the mixing layer deepening with the much warmer air off the surface mixing down.
217 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed an upper trough over the Midwestern US and a large closed low south of New Mexico today. Northwest flow aloft developed this afternoon as ridging amplified along the west coast. Skies were clear over the High Plains, with north winds gusting at 25 to 30 mph across much of the region. On Friday, the Midwest trough shifts eastward and upper ridging spreads onto the Plains. Meanwhile, the closed low south of New Mexico remains nearly stationary.
Temperatures behind the boundaries drop little, however as mixing has compensated somewhat for the cooler air aloft. Friday will see a warm front across the region by afternoon with some mid to high level clouds working east during the morning hours again by late afternoon and early evening.
The cold front will reach SE GA Friday morning, then to the GA/FL line around 18z, then into north central FL around midnight. High pressure will build to the northwest Friday night, with noticeably drier air filtering south across area.
This cloud cover will continue to gradually decrease towards the southeast as the mid- level trough over our area shifts east. Afternoon high temperatures will generally top out in the low to mid 70s alongside northwesterly winds. Clear skies, dry air and light winds will move into the area tonight ahead of a high pressure center on Friday. Very pleasant outdoor weather is in store for Friday with sunny skies, light winds and high temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees as high pressure passes overhead.
234 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 High pressure still dominating the area which should be the trend for the rest of the week. As we go into the weekend a weak cold front will stall across the area.
High pressure will build tonight giving a pretty quiet night and another quiet day Friday.
915 AM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Strong ridge aloft will bring warm and dry conditions today, with temps well into the 70s expected this afternoon. JKL Warmer the next few days as upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest migrates eastward. Northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge axis will cover the area today and this grabs some high level Pacific moisture streaming over the ridge. Warmer air aloft will move into the area today which will boost temperatures upward with favorable mixing but cloud cover this afternoon may cap a couple of degrees off the temperatures.
However, high pressure building in overhead late tonight will allow winds to ease again and begin to turn southerly for Friday. RH is expected to drop into the low 20s across much of the region by afternoon. The high will remain relatively close through afternoon and while southerly flow will strengthen across western MN, the gustiness needed for red flag conditions will likely remain across the Dakotas.
The large meandering upper low which will drop into northern Mexico will eventually eject northeastward.
(This evening through Friday) Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a cut-off upper low moving southwest of El Paso, TX, resulting in continued southwest flow aloft, with isentropic lift bringing scattered to isolated showers to the region this afternoon. At the surface, northerly winds continue to bring in cooler air, with temperatures about 10-25 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago (as of 1 pm, temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid 60s). Tonight through Friday, the cut-off low will remain pretty much stationary across northern Mexico, with southwest flow aloft, and northerly winds at the surface, while isentropic lift and upper level divergence continues to bring scattered showers across the region, with just a slight chance of a rumble of thunder here and there.
253 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance Cooler tomorrow, then breezy and much warmer for at least the first half of the weekend.
Surface analysis late this morning places a weak cold front from Southern Illinois, Southeast Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, and back into the Hill Country of Texas. Currently, a cold front was moving across western Arkansas and into northeast Texas. The cold front will continue to move slowly east across Arkansas today. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The cold front will move quickly through the region tonight with thunderstorms moving out of the Mid-South this evening. Temperatures will be cooler tonight behind the front with lows Friday morning in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
With marginal instability lingering in northwest Georgia and increased low-level shear ahead of the cold front, there is a chance that isolated storms could become strong and capable of producing gusty winds. High pressure will similarly build into the area from the northwest, which will serve to inhibit rain chances through much of the day.
A cold front associated with the first impulse currently extends from northern Ontario, through the central UP, and into the central Plains. The upper level trough axis continues to sweep across the region Friday morning. Meanwhile, there is a stout pressure gradient between deepening low pressure over New England and high pressure over the Minnesota/Wisconsin region. Expect wind gusts into the 30 to 35 mph range, perhaps even into the low 40s mph near Lake Huron. At this point temperatures are still expected to dip down into the low 30s for a while along the Lake Michigan shoreline counties which could affect the blossoming fruit trees.
Very quiet weather will prevail this Short Term forecast period through Friday as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build upstream across the Rockies.
229 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Strong ridge over the PacNW will be the dominant feature thru the short term period. We are seeing scattered to broken mid and high clouds today, on the NW flow side of the ridge, but the cloud cover potential should decrease later tonight into Friday as the ridge axis shifts east. This not only will challenge record highs at our main climate stations (Billings, Miles City, Sheridan, Livingston) but will also be on the order of 10 degrees warmer than we have been yet in 2021. A weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest tomorrow night, signaling the start of our next pattern shift.
With abundant sunshine through the afternoon, temperatures should easily rise to the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Precipitation won't make a return in the short term, thanks to the building in of an upper level ridge and a very dry, well mixed boundary layer. Thus dewpoints will be a bit higher, but temperatures will be on the increase as well thanks to warmer air aloft, particularly across central SD (highs in the 80s near/west of the MO River).
118 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 A cold front will move southeast through the region today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and breezy conditions are expected on Friday.
The upper level ridge axis positioned across eastern Washington this afternoon will shift eastward into central Montana Friday. Breezy winds will develop Friday as the ridge begins to breakdown as the next pacific disturbance rounds into the Pacific Northwest.
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front that is forecast to move through the region. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 77 50 79 55 / 70 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 73 47 75 52 / 80 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 55 73 46 75 52 / 80 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 69 41 71 47 / 80 20 0 0 0 TN.
Light at the end of the tunnel with the dreary day with clearing starting to edge in from the west as trough axis continues to drift along around at 25 to 30 kt with any precip gone by if not before 00Z.
Early this morning a cold front was advancing southeast through the area and was currently situated along the Interstate 44 corridor. The upper level low currently across the New Mexico/Mexico border will slowly get shoved south today as a northern stream trough moves over our area. Highs will generally be in the lower 70s with northwest winds.
55 The slow moving cold front has entered northwest Arkansas and will continue to move through the state today. Today Through Friday Night This upper ridge will be suppressed to the southeast by an approaching upper moving through the Midwest. The southwest upper low will become cutoff from the main flow and blocked by the upper ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, keeping it over west Texas through Friday. A slow moving cold front will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms across the area today. North, west and southwest sections will have the highest threat of flash flooding. High pressure will build over the state tonight and Friday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s and then lower to mid 50s Friday night.
956 AM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Gorgeous spring day is underway with sunshine, warmer temperatures, and light winds. Models have upper ridging over the forecast area today and tonight with moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft. The low level pressure and wind fields point to normal diurnal wind patterns through tonight.
222 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 A dry cold frontal passage expected late tonight and into Friday.
350 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 (Issued 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021) Tonight through Friday night: The mid level wave and cold front has begun to move through Wisconsin this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing along the cold front. The scattered precipitaion will move along the cold front, which should be clear of southern Wisconsin by tonight. Cold air advection will increase behind the front and high pressure will begin to move into the Great Lakes Region tonight.
Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the 60s for most, with some locations in the lower 70s. Ridge begins to build in on Friday. Cooler temperatures (upper 60s to lower 70s) expected in southwestern MN where the aforementioned high pressure will keep some cooler air in place. Friday night could see lows in the 50s, as the ridge and southerly flow remain in place. Thus, any potential mixing into this layer may keep temps on the warmer side.
Very quiet weather will prevail this Short Term forecast period through Friday as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build upstream across the Rockies. The upper low spinning across northern Mexico today will gradually lift northeast across Texas through the weekend. Eventually, the deep moisture across Texas will expand northward toward the Central Plains along with the upper low. Another trough will develop across the West late in the weekend as well, which will help eject the former Texas upper low northeast out across the Ozarks and points northeast.
237 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Broad northwesterly flow aloft persists across the region as trough axis pivots through the Midwest and a cut off upper low continues to churn across the SW US/southern Plains. Further upstream, an upper ridge is building across the western half of the US. This ridge will slide eastward, becoming centered over the northern Plains by Friday afternoon. The ridge will flatten a bit as a trough pushes into the Pacific NW and embedded waves translate eastward.
Stormy weather is likely this evening as convection and a cold front move across the region. Dry but cooler weather is forecast on Friday, as drier and somewhat cooler air filters in from the north. High temperatures should range in the low/mid 70s. Noticeably cooler Fri night with lows in the upper 40s to around 50.
Cooler Friday, with a chance of showers early. This evening into tonight, showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, will continue to move across the area as the cold front progresses eastward through the CWA. Flow will turn northwest behind the front, bringing much cooler air into the area for Friday. High temperatures area expected to be in the 60s in the lowlands, with 40s to 50s in the mountains.
143 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Strong high pressure will produce dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
Upper level ridging continues across the Great Basin region with a deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes. A wave embedded in flow aloft, now off to our northeast, pushed a weak cold front into the area earlier, and continues to slowly push south across the local area. Upper level ridge builds east into the Rockies tonight, flattening a bit as an embedded wave moves east across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Embedded wave continues to flatten the ridge and will also push an area of low pressure east along the Canadian border for Friday. We will be in the warm sector of this low, with boundary layer temperatures in the mid/upper 20s Celsius developing east across western into portions of central ND behind a sfc warm front.
1137 AM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 High pressure continues to push eastwards across the Pacific Northwest as the cold frontal boundary that dug southeast across the Midwest becomes nearly stationary and extends from the Mid- Atlantic southeast towards Texas. A dry and warm pattern is setting up as the region becomes dominated by an upper level ridge.
1127 AM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 An upper-level ridge has begun building over the western CONUS and it will control our weather for the next several days. Some cumulus clouds may build over the Divide later this afternoon, and highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. This could lead to localized red flag conditions given the low humidity. Tomorrow the ridge noses even further into our region allowing the temperatures to continue their climb. The ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will be slanted eastward with increasing latitude. This leaves our forecast area under west-southwest flow through as the next trough approaches.
1PM temperatures reported across the area range from the 50s across the western mountains to the low 70s in the Panhandle. looking at Friday's high 10-12 degrees warmer over today's highs. Could have some fire weather concerns Friday with afternoon humidity falling into the low to mid teens.
1112 AM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Split longwave trough stretches across the central CONUS just east of our CWA, as a ridge builds over the west coast. As the upper ridge shifts eastward over the northern plains, warm air advection will continue.
An upper level trough crossing the upper Mississippi Valley is detaching itself from a low centered near El Paso TX. Also, an upper low is centered in the central Gulf of Mexico. Through the overnight period, the northern trough will track east across the Great Lakes while the western upper remains stationary over northern Mexico and the ridge to the south moves very little. A frontal boundary connected between those 2 low pressure systems will be draped across central LA and MS tonight. Looking at afternoon soundings, shear in the low levels is weak but instability looks decent with CAPE over 1000j/kg.
After FROPA, a couple hours period of MVFR ceilings between 1500-2000ft is expected before trough moves east of the area and drier air advects in for clearing sky Friday morning.
A cold front that was hung up northwest of the San Antonio and Austin metro areas is finally easing its way across those areas while portions of the front farther south have reached the lower Texas Coast. An upper level low is dropping south into the Mexican State of Chihuahua. The cold front will stall near the Texas Coastal Plains tonight into Friday while the upper level low remains over Chihuahua. The highest POPs for tonight into Friday due the strongest upward forcing will focus along the frontal zone near the Coastal Plains, as well as an area of greater divergence aloft over Central Texas, the Hill Country, and the Edwards Plateau. As the upper level low begins to move toward the Big Bend, the front moves back to the west across South Central Texas Friday night.
Return southerly flow/winds will develop overnight on the backside of the high. Northwest flow aloft will weaken Friday as subtle ridging aloft across the Rockies begins to shift eastward into the central CONUS. A brief warm up begins Friday as very warm air aloft (18-22C at H85) spreads across the area beneath the upper ridging.
Upper ridging will build over the area over the next couple of days continuing to bring warm and dry conditions to the area.
Afternoon highs will reach near 70F, slightly cooler than normal.
1138 AM PDT Thu Apr 29 2021 High pressure will result in warm and dry conditions today, with temperatures peaking in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A mostly dry cold front will push across the Inland Northwest on Friday. Today through Friday night: An upper ridge will remain in place today with southwest flow ahead of a cold front bringing well above normal temperatures. This morning an initial weak warm front has brought light rain from Republic up towards Lauier but this should be coming to an end by early morning as the front lifts north of the region. The cold front will reach the Cascades late tonight into Friday morning with rain likely developing near the Cascade crest with high snow levels around 7000-8000 feet.
We are seeing temperatures climb into the low 70s over our southern counties, but even what little instability this helps to provide, I don't think it will be enough to produce much more than a strong storm. After that rain will quickly exit to our east and drier cooler conditions will move in overnight.
Still very little shear and helicity overall, but a few convective models are indicating small pockets of higher shear mainly south of I-40 this afternoon, so there's still room for some strong storms to develop ahead of the cold front that will move through Middle Tennessee from around 3pm to 8pm.
1203 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE A cutoff low pressure system will linger over the El Paso area keeping the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast from the Sacramento Mountains eastward through tonight and potentially into Friday. As the upper level low that brought precipitation to New Mexico yesterday continues to slide southward into Mexico, precipitation will continue to dwindle from north to south tonight.
1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 At the I-35 sites, a cold front is moving across the sites with IFR/low end MVFR conditions with -RA. Coverage of showers and storms should diminish late morning with the cold front pushing into southern and eastern areas, but still lingering rain chances through the afternoon, tonight, and Friday with the upper level low hanging out to the west.
304 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 The cold front has moved into far southeast Missouri, and cooler/drier air is filtering into the forecast area.
Ridging aloft continues to move east through today out of the region with a massive closed upper low located near the New Mexico/Mexico border slowly progresses into northwestern Mexico through Friday. The attending cold front pushes south as a result with the cold front with it nearing the lower Mississippi River valley overnight tonight. Lingering subsidence effects associated with the ridging aloft maintains a dry forecast through early tonight. As the weak cold front moves across the region on Friday, and with PWATs increasing from 1. On Friday, given the temp gradient associated with this cold front is rather weak only mid 70s to low 80s are expected northwest of I-65 with some mid 70s along the immediate coast.
Upper level ridging over Western Washington will make for a dry day across the region, with high temperatures this afternoon in the upper 60s to low 70s. An upper ridge is over the region today.
As well, an upper low over north Central Mexico/West Texas is providing instability upstream, but enough to also influence deep South texas and the RGV.