Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The hot and humid weather will continue early this week, with the center of the high pressure ridge becoming centered just east of the region over the Southern Appalachians. With southerly flow prevailing, expect the warm, moist air mass to remain in place, supporting daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 104 degree range.
A cold front moved south through the region overnight and is expected to lift back north across the region by late today as a warm front.
708 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Atlantic high pressure will continue through much of the upcoming week with a weak trough of low pressure inland. The combination of temperatures in the low to mid 90s pretty much everywhere, and dewpoints of 75 to 80 degrees, will lead to a few hours of heat index values above 105 degrees and will continue the Heat Advisory today for all zones, except Downeast Carteret County, Ocracoke and Hatteras Island. Strong upper level ridging will continue Monday, providing hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 105 again.
This is beneath the 5h ridge axis across MS/GA/AL/SC. The hot and humid weather will continue early this week, with the center of the high pressure ridge becoming centered just east of the region over the Southern Appalachians. With southerly flow prevailing, expect the warm, moist air mass to remain in place, supporting daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 104 degree range.
520 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 According to the models, the high pressure that will limit moisture for our CWA has set up over the Four Corners area this morning. Flow around this high will continue to pump in drier air to the region and the soundings over the last few days does show PWATs lowering.
The Atlantic ridge axis remains north of the local waters with consistent E/SE flow 10- 15 kts.
1047 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The Florida Keys are along the southern flank of a subtropical ridge straddling the Georgia Coastline. There are two undulations in the easterlies riding along the south side of the ridge, one over the western Gulf, the other north of Hispaniola. Water vapor imagery highlights a small upper level low sliding west through the northern Bahamas, noted by the cooling above 400 MB sampled by the 12Z KMFL sounding. Moderate easterly breezes will prevail across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through Monday as high pressure persists to our north.
341 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 According to the models, the high pressure that will limit moisture for our CWA has set up over the Four Corners area this morning. Flow around this high will continue to pump in drier air to the region and the soundings over the last few days does show PWATs lowering.
H5 low pressure has gradually worked eastward overnight into western portions of Ontario. Large scale pattern continues to be dominated by broad ridging across the southern half of the CONUS, with progressive quasi-zonal flow along the northern extent of this ridge.
Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler on Monday, then turn warmer through mid-week. Some of these rain showers could continue into Monday as the upper level trough moves away into eastern Montana.
635 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. A mostly clear sunrise throughout central PA early this morning with light winds beneath a weak ridge at the sfc and aloft. Slightly cooler air will filter into NW half of PA later tonight into Monday morning, and areas of river valley fog are likely there. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
1015 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure will persist this week.
High pressure, warming temperatures, and dry conditions will continue over the next several days across the Northern Rockies.
Persistent easterly flow remains with high pressure off to the east.
/issued 307 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020/ We will finally break the streak of 100's we have seen over the past two weeks with most locations staying below the century mark today! A weakening ridge along with deeper easterly flow will finally allow temperatures to cool closer to normal for the first time in a while. Rain chances will increase mainly for southern areas as the ridge looks to remain too strong over the Permian Basin.
A broad area of high pressure over the Southwest is responsible for a very weak flow and less favorable conditions for thunderstorms. As high pressure retreats a little east of the area, weak troughiness near the west coast will help enhance the resulting southerly flow early this week.
/issued 352 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will become centered across the Southeast United States and the Desert Southwest today, resulting in slightly lower heights over West Central Texas.
1044 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Did nudge PoPs up slightly over the far NW before sunset as some CAMs develop showers/storms off a land breeze/I-90 ridgeline and these may drift into Warren Co before sunset. A mostly clear sunrise throughout central PA early this morning with light winds beneath a weak ridge at the sfc and aloft. Slightly cooler air will filter into NW half of PA later tonight into Monday morning, and areas of river valley fog are likely there. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
550 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Mostly clear skies throughout central PA early this morning with light winds beneath a weak ridge at the sfc and aloft. Slightly cooler air will filter into NW half of PA later tonight into Monday morning, and areas of river valley fog are likely there. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
Morning UA data continuing to show warming/drying aloft and slightly drier air also in the lower levels. Strong ridging aloft will remain in place across the region as we wrap up the weekend. Quiet conditions are expected tonight, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/ A rather stagnant weather pattern will be in place for the week as broad upper ridging will be in place.
424 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 For today and tonight, high temperatures this afternoon should be cooler compared to the past couple days as heights fall in response to a weakness in the broad upper level ridge of high pressure which encompasses the southern half of the United States. This weakness in the upper level ridge is expected to result in northwest flow aloft across the OK and TX Panhandles, which is a more favorable steering flow for brining showers and tstms into our region from the higher terrain of southeast CO and eastern NM.
The upper level ridge continues to hold strong across the area. Highs today will climb into the low to mid 90s across most locations with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Warm air aloft from the ridge and a capping inversion, should limit the coverage of afternoon showers/storms again today. Overall, expect best chances for precipitation will be in the higher elevations along the TN/NC line and across the Cumberland Plateau. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 97 74 95 / 40 10 30 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 97 73 96 74 95 / 40 10 30 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 97 73 96 73 95 / 40 0 30 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 70 93 69 92 / 40 20 40 20 60 TN.
641 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Key message: One final day of heat before periodic chances of thunderstorms and cloud cover result in cooler weather. Further to the west over central Kansas, a weakening complex of showers and thunderstorms was present along the corridor of a slowly moving cold front. The cold front will gradually settle near the Interstate 70 corridor by this afternoon, once again serving as a focus for renewed convection. Additionally, this boundary will be the dividing line between areas still to experience another day of a dangerous combination of heat and humidity versus those areas to the north with cooler readings.
743 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The forecast remains on track through this coming week with generally warmer and drier conditions, with the exception of showers tonight and Monday afternoon/evening. Only updates that were made this morning were to the overnight lows from last night into this morning, bring some areas along the mountains down into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler on Monday, then turn warmer through mid-week. Some of these rain showers could continue into Monday as the upper level trough moves away into eastern Montana.
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A warm front will cross the region today. A cold front will cross the region Monday.
Drier air will likely continue pushing into the RGV as the inverted 500 mb trough that brought the rainfall to the region on Sat shifts gradually west. /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): The inverted 500 mb trough axis that brought the conv to the RGV and Deep South TX yesterday will drift steadily westward through Mon.
Meanwhile, highs will reach into the low to mid 90s across the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys due to stronger Delta breeze. Heading into the work week, lowering temperatures and increasing thunderstorm coverage are expected as a low pressure system off the CA coast deepens and gradually moves inland.
Early this morning a surface cold front was moving southeast across north central KS. I'll trend towards the GFS and RAP models which show the higher values of 2000-3000 J/KG of MLCAPE along and south of the front across areas along and south of I-70. Highs Today northwest of the boundary will be in the mid to upper 80s, while high temperatures along and south of the boundary across the southeast counties of the CWA will be in the lower to mid 90s.
/Issued 424 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020/ For today and tonight, high temperatures this afternoon should be cooler compared to the past couple days as heights fall in response to a weakness in the broad upper level ridge of high pressure which encompasses the southern half of the United States. This weakness in the upper level ridge is expected to result in northwest flow aloft across the OK and TX Panhandles, which is a more favorable steering flow for brining showers and tstms into our region from the higher terrain of southeast CO and eastern NM.
315 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast for much of the week ahead, with high heat and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms.
Expect cooler- than-average conditions to return to the region by midweek. On a larger scale, high pressure that brought some inland warmth yesterday has eased a bit eastward today. To the west, an upper low is beginning to take shape off the California coast. The easing high pressure and developing low has translated to slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon.
Next several days will be very similar with convection in the higher terrain out west and little to no precip opportunities east of the Pecos River.
An upper level ridge of high pressure extends from the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions to the Appalachian Mountains/Eastern Seaboard early this afternoon. The upper ridge axis is forecast to shift slightly eastward across the Appalachian Mounts/Eastern Seaboard and adjacent western Atlantic on Monday, but the ridge axis otherwise continues to extend southwestward into AL/MS. Lows tonight will continue to range in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees near the immediate coast and the beaches.
A warm front is bisecting the forecast area today and will likely hang around through tomorrow, which will help provide forcing for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds in the lowest 3km and CAPE originating above the mixed layer.
Additional activity along synoptic scale trough/cold front may very well survive to some degree as it works in from the west late this afternoon into this evening.
The forecast remains on track through this coming week with generally warmer and drier conditions, with the exception of showers tonight and Monday afternoon/evening. Only updates that were made this morning were to the overnight lows from last night into this morning, bring some areas along the mountains down into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler on Monday, then turn warmer through mid-week. Some of these rain showers could continue into Monday as the upper level trough moves away into eastern Montana.
With mostly sunny skies most locations will se afternoon HIs in the lower to middle 100s. A cold front that extends from eastern IA to central KS will gradually become oriented more west-east with time as it moves south of stronger west winds aloft.
231 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. The mid and upper ridge sprawled over the southeastern states will remain centered just to our northwest. Dry weather is expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure aloft persists over The Midlands and CSRA through mid week with a continuation of above normal heat and humid. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop each day off the higher terrain of Upstate SC/Western NC and along the sea breeze front and propogate into the region.
A short wave trough will swing through the region in this timeframe. The passage of the cold front will bring cooler northwesterly flow that will allow for more pleasant weather tomorrow with a reprive from the heat. Maximum temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Upper ridge centered across the sern CONUS with high pressure at the sfc will continue to keep a solid influence on our region through tonight and into Monday, However, trof axis to our n and w combined with an easterly wave movg across the TX/LA Gulf coast will act to weaken the upper ridge/force its influence ewd by Monday aftn.
Mid level ridging remains centered along the Utah/Arizona border this morning, while further north a belt of westerlies extends across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A very weak vorticity maxima lifting through the lower Colorado River valley this morning is enhancing cloud cover a bit across northwest Arizona into southwest Utah, and this may aid convective development a bit this afternoon across the southern mountains, however with surface dew points in the 20s to lower 30s instability will remain very limited, and as a result anticipate only isolated cells capable of a rogue microburst and perhaps a few lightning strikes. Updated earlier to adjust for cloud cover and tweaked PoPs upwards a bit over the higher terrain, otherwise going forecast looks in good shape this morning.
56" indicated that drier air has advected across the region in wake of a recent inverted trough that has moved west into Mexico and weakened.
Heat Index Values have mainly behaved across the Mid-South as we sit in the low 100s across most locations - remaining below the 105 degree threshold that's needed to warrant a heat advisory. Current temperatures are in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. The high over the southeast will slowly push east which will allow a stationary boundary to drag south into the lower Ohio Valley and northern Mid-South over the next couple of days.
211 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 With an upper-level ridge parked overhead and the subtropical ridge axis remaining off to our east, our weather continues to be about the same as it has been.
Breezy winds have periodically mixed down some warmer temperatures, but the general trend today has been roughly average temperatures. Due to the sky cover and lack of significant warm air advection, temperatures tomorrow will remain below average, with most areas struggling to get above the low 80s. The cold front will continue pushing eastwards throughout the day, and will result in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into the late morning hours.
Northerly winds this afternoon at 5-15 mph with thermal trough building into Oregon.
423 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. However, the next short wave trough will continue to fire storms up and move them across LE and NWrn PA and into the CWA. Temps will be much warmer tonight, and dewpoints stay sticky, so this should make the conditions unbearable for many in the SE tonight. Temps should also be a little cooler in the NW, too, thanks partly to some early lower clouds and perhaps fog.
133 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. The mid and upper ridge sprawled over the southeastern states will remain centered just to our northwest. Dry weather is expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure aloft persists over The Midlands and CSRA through mid week with a continuation of above normal heat and humid. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop each day off the higher terrain of Upstate SC/Western NC and along the sea breeze front and propogate into the region.
According to LAPS and SPC mesoanalysis, there still is some low-level CIN at the moment, but we also have some time increasing the low-level temperatures this afternoon and we do expect some thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon or this evening.
133 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure will persist this week.
210 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A slightly cooler and much drier airmass compared to yesterday is in place across the area today as high pressure continues to build in. However, forecast soundings suggest that moisture associated with this wave will be confined to the mid levels across the local area, with much drier air in the low levels.
Somewhat cooler conditions spread south across North-central Montana tonight through Monday behind the weather disturbance while temperatures remain near seasonal averages across southwest Montana.
On Monday night 925-850mb moisture transport ensues ahead of a trough over the Dakotas.
210 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Cold front has now moved to near Springfield Illinois to Columbia line.
415 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. However, the next short wave trough will continue to fire storms up and move them across LE and NWrn PA and into the CWA. Temps will be much warmer tonight, and dewpoints stay sticky, so this should make the conditions unbearable for many in the SE tonight. Temps should also be a little cooler in the NW, too, thanks partly to some early lower clouds and perhaps fog. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
This relative lull will persist into the overnight period and shower chcs will remain on the low side, with the best chc for brief sprinkles or a shower roughly south of Sebastian Inlet and across the Treasure Coast. Persistent pattern continues as a fairly deep high pressure ridge will remain north of FL and occasionally reinforced during the period. The Atlantic ridge axis remains north of the local waters with consistent E/SE flow 10-15 kts.
I don't see any big changes compared to today except that highs could be a degree or two cooler.
347 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Gusty winds out of the west this evening with cooler temperatures than the previous day thanks to the cold front that swept through overnight. Another cold front is currently pushing southeast this afternoon with some increased clouds and some light showers peppered across the Northern MN.
116 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Water vapor shows broad trof extending from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains. Weak inverted trof over eastern WY resulting in increasing return flow across our western zones. Still expecting a strong/severe storm or two to develop along the inverted trof by later this afternoon, with activity moving into the Black Hills and far southwest SD. A stronger northern stream trof will push a cold front through the Northern Plains on Monday. Should see a return to warmer temps in the mid to late week time frame as flow aloft transitions from zonal to southwest, although the flow will remain disturbed for a nearly daily chance of storms.
146 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. The mid and upper ridge sprawled over the southeastern states will remain centered just to our northwest. Dry weather is expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure aloft persists over The Midlands and CSRA through mid week with a continuation of above normal heat and humid. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop each day off the higher terrain of Upstate SC/Western NC and along the sea breeze front and propogate into the region.
256 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The Florida Keys are along the southern flank of a subtropical ridge straddling the Georgia Coastline. There are two undulations in the easterlies riding along the south side of the ridge, one over the western Gulf, the other north of Hispaniola. High cloud cover finally has cleared west of the Lower Keys, revealing mostly sunny skies across the islands. The Florida Keys will remain on the southern flank of the subtropical ridge, consisting of enhanced BL easterlies, occasional low level moisture surges, and periods of weak cyclonic curvature.
1157 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020 According to the models, the high pressure that will limit moisture for our CWA has set up over the Four Corners area this morning. Flow around this high will continue to pump in drier air to the region and the soundings over the last few days does show PWATs lowering.
The clouds/convection are associated with a rather prominent mid level wave moving west across the northern Gulf of Mexico on the underside of the strong ridge tenaciously situated across the MidSouth. Elsewhere, the influence of the ridge will manifest in hot temperatures once again, but afternoon dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s as slightly drier air is mixed down, similar to today. This will keep heat indices mostly in the lower 100s.
Weak surface and Mid and upper level ridge remains in place through the short term and should help to keep these storms from getting to strong. The Mid to upper level ridging is centered mainly across N GA right over the deeper lower level moisture that contiues to move in from the NE.
407 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure is expected to persist through the work week. All models keep a deep layer ridge over the area. Both high and low temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal, with lows mid 70s, except upper 70s to around 80 near the coast, and highs in the lower to mid 90s.
This afternoon - tonight: A weak cold front is draped across the forecast area from eastern KS through central MO. This feature will continue to track east and may provide some further mid to upper level forcing along with a pocket of cooler air aloft.