Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure has ushered in warmer and drier air, that will remain at least through Tuesday night. Then during the afternoon the chance of thunderstorms shifts south and east, as monsoon moisture wraps around the 4-corners high pressure.
Forcing with the boundary appears to remain too weak to maintain or extend any shower activity that may develop this evening to our north and west, especially as it runs into the elongated mid- level ridge axis forecast to extend through the area. Overall, height fields will lower some by midweek as the ridge continues to slide slowly west and a longwave trough begins to deepen across the eastern half of the country. This slight pattern change coupled with easterly low level flow behind Tuesday's boundary will help shave a few degrees off high temperatures with the big question being how much of the expansive heat dome can be eroded before the high pressure center begins to strengthen again and expand back east.
Current temps range from the mid 70s east to the lower 80s west. Provided the low clouds scatter, temps this afternoon look to climb into the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west. Max heat indices may reach the lower 90s east to the upper 90s west.
227 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Ridging will continue to push eastward tonight. Under this ridge some fair weather CU have formed, but other than that the weather remain quiet. This will be more downslope flow, which will lead to warming along with also advecting in some warmer air from the the Great Basin. The warmer temperatures with no increase in the moisture in the atmosphere will push humidity down tin othe lower 20s.
245 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A weak surface boundary was situated across eastern Iowa into NW Illinois this afternoon with a muggy airmass pooling along it (dewpoints in the low/mid 70s). Isolated showers and storms are possible late this afternoon through the evening along a weak cold front. For Tuesday, beautiful mid summer weather is expected with highs in the low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity levels. Southwest US ridges holds in place through the week with the active pattern located to our north until late week. This ridge shifts east in week two increasing the excessive heat threat.
That line was associated with a prefrontal trough that, coupled with mid level instability and shear aloft, created lines of storms. The upper level trough continues its trek eastward this afternoon and evening. This elongated trough will move the associated cold front through the Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. The line of showers and storms also mixed the lower levels which has decrease the amount of instability.
317 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the region with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Latest surface analysis shows a string of low pressure systems from Lake Superior to IA to KS pushing a cold front through portions of the MS Valley and toward the OH Valley. A northwesterly nocturnal LLJ will rejuvenate convective activity along the aforementioned cold front overnight over central IN. More insolation south of there will allow temps to rise into the low 90s. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the weather by advecting a drier and more stable airmass behind Tuesday's frontal passage (see Short Term section above).
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 93 73 88 70 / 0 20 20 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 71 87 69 / 0 20 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 92 71 87 67 / 0 20 30 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 89 68 85 64 / 0 30 30 50 20.
1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Subtropical Ridge remains in control with the heat the main concern.
For Tuesday, temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler, but still hot enough to keep the heat headlines going, with highs from around 102 degrees to near 107 once again.
A cold front has pushed off to the south and east of the area. After Tuesday, the upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Desert Southwest with the northward extent of the ridge axis slowly shifting east across the Upper Midwest.
Early development of storms will be over the higher elevations east of Pima County with a focus over the Mogollon Rim. /issued 206 AM MST Mon Jul 11 2022/ A strong ridge of high pressure will make for near record high temperatures in some locations this afternoon. With temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above average, an excessive heat warning will be in effect from Tucson into the lower deserts today. The easterly steering flow would tend to support organized outflows off the higher terrain and into the lower deserts later today and this evening. The main threat looks to be winds and dust with moisture just a tad on the low side to support organized propagation off higher terrain or significant valley storm coverage. An easterly impulse rotating around the high from northern Texas could focus storms later in the week.
336 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Warm and dry conditions prevail over the forecast area this afternoon as a broad ridge over the western US extends into the region. This will provide a weakness in the ridging, which will separate the ridge over the rockies from the Bermuda high off the SE Atlantic coast and will mildly extend the trough from the NE US to the SE US through most of the week. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday and increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it.
1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A strong cold front blasted southward across the CWA over the past several hours, just recently passing through CYS with temperatures falling into the middle and upper 50s along w/ wind gusts up to 45 MPH. Considerably cooler today in the post- frontal air mass with H7 temperatures only around +8 deg C along & east of the Laramie Range. Quite modest mid and high-level moisture should keep any precipitation chances very low for today, but cannot entirely rule out a couple of showers or weak thunderstorms over the higher terrain along the WY/CO border. A few showers or storms may occur late Tuesday afternoon or early evening with a few weak mid- level disturbances traversing the flow along the edge of the ridge later in the day.
240 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A broad ridge of high pressure is slowly spreading through most of the western US, cutting off our local access to both upper level moisture from the Pacific and lower level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
201 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Current observations show a 594 DAM upper level high pressure cell centered over the Four Corners with a moderately moist atmosphere trapped below it. Given the modest CAPE between 500-1000 J/kg acrosss the southern half, convection initiated on schedule around midday over the San Juans, Central Divide mountains and the typical ridges in eastern UT. Convection over the San Juans will be slow moving as steering flow aloft is weak under the center of high pressure. with highs near 100 in the lower valleys. High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the Four Corners, strengthening and expanding its influence toward the weekend. The strengthening of high pressure noted above late in the week and weekend will only turn the dial a few degrees hotter if that materializes.
247 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Unsettled weather will return through the midweek as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days.
A cold front continues to move across the Central Plains this afternoon. Cooler temperatures will stick around Tuesday with highs in the mid- 80s to low 90s from north to south. Enjoy the cooler weather while you can because changes are on the way. An upper ridge progresses east, over the area around mid-week with the heat returning to the forecast.
A weak cold front arriving late tonight will bring winds out of the northeast around 10-15 kts. Along with new declines in PWATs today thanks to drier NE flow aloft around the high, widespread highs at or above 100 remain on tap. After sunset, a weak cold front (currently in the Nebraska Sandhills) should be found entering the northern TX Panhandle and be on track to clear most of the CWA by daybreak Tuesday. As the monsoon plume that provided some showers and thunderstorms over the past week or so, shifts to the northwest with the expanding dome of high pressure, a drier airmass ESE of the center of the ridge will be highlighted by weak northeast flow aloft and a drier surface boundary layer.
An upper low is in the northern GOMEX. A wave of low pressure (a surface reflection of the upper low) has developed along the old boundary. North and central GA will stay between two stout high pressure systems with a 500mb trough to the north over the Ohio River Valley. Current QPF number showing 5 day precip totals ranging from 1 to 3 inches across the area with central GA receiving the higher totals.
832 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Bermuda high pressure off to the east and a trough to the west directs a southwesterly flow across the Florida peninsula into Tuesday. Tomorrow, temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s. SW flow continues through Tuesday, then transitions to SE for the rest of the period as the high pressure ridging across south FL lifts north of the area. A stalled frontal boundary just north of the state will settle into north FL leaving a remnant trough as high pressure ridging across south FL starts to lift back to the north later on Tuesday. The southwest flow will shift to the southeast, with afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore each afternoon through the rest of the week as ridging remains across the area.
Temperatures near the coast have been moderated by light onshore flow, but the gradient between these cooler temperatures and the hot inland temperatures is quite tight. Expect these clouds to continue to slowly thicken and expand northward overnight as the desert SW upper high loosens its influence and an upper level E Pacific trough edges closer to the region.
809 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A cold front will bring scattered rain and storms to the area late this afternoon into tonight. Upstream behind the cold front, closer to upper support, a broken line of showers and storms was trying to organize across SE WI. Focus is mainly on the potential for redevelopment of scattered showers and storms with the cold front this afternoon into tonight, with a few strong to severe storms possible.
(Rest of tonight) Mostly clear skies tonight as we remain under high pressure north of the frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast.
618 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 (Tonight) Scattered/broken mid/high cu clouds remain in place over much of the area this Mon afternoon, as high pressure gradually settles into the area from the north.
1023 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Currently - The Keys remain in the far western end of an Atlantic pressure ridge. This activity has been concentrated along a reverse cloud line over the northern fringes of the larger islands in the Lower Keys and the adjoining gulf side waters. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will remain across the Keys and surrounding waters through the overnight period. Overnight lows will generally be a few degrees above normal in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.
654 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will continue moving southward through the rest of the Texas Panhandle, including KAMA, this evening with northeast to north winds in its wake.
Strong high pressure over the Four Corners region is expanding westward today with several degrees of synoptic warming expected.
/22/ Tonight and tomorrow: Upper ridging over the Four Corners will amplify into the Inter- Mountain West as a northern stream trough slides from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. The associated trough axis will drop into the Middle Mississippi Valley with northerly flow helping to reinforce a dry airmass across much of the area with PWATs falling to at or below 1. Some locations across the Hwy 82 corridor may see dewpoints mix into the low 60s with a few upper 50s not out of the question.
SW flow continues through Tuesday, then transitions to SE for the rest of the period as the high pressure ridging across south FL lifts north of the area. A stalled frontal boundary just north of the state will settle into north FL leaving a remnant trough as high pressure ridging across south FL starts to lift back to the north later on Tuesday. The southwest flow will shift to the southeast, with afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore each afternoon through the rest of the week as ridging remains across the area.
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Unsettled weather will return through the midweek as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days.
1043 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Unsettled weather will return through the midweek as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days.
801 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return to the region late tonight and Tuesday with the encroachment of a cold front. No major alterations were needed for the eve update as warm, moist advection is underway in advance of a Midwest cold front. A cold frontal passage is likely on Tuesday. Short range models are in disagreement with timing of cold front, which will inherently have consequences when it pertains to strength of convection. With warm and moist advection, it appears the most likely result of the cold frontal passage will be early to mid- morning thunderstorms that contain elevated convection, and an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Approaching wave, cold front and outflow boundary from upstream convection could spark some widely sct convection but at this point if anything does form, likihood of severe is likely near if not zero. Focus is mainly on the potential for redevelopment of scattered showers and storms with the cold front this afternoon into tonight, with a few strong to severe storms possible.
847 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure will be located over Central Montana today, bringing in warmer and drier conditions.
751 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Cool and dry today under high pressure.
A cold front around daybreak on Tuesday morning will provide for little more than a wind shift and a low- end risk of a brief period of broken, but VFR cloudiness. Cold front moving through the TX Panhandle will move south to the area later this evening and tonight. Cooler air will funnel in and we can expect highs to be in the mid 90s for the west and near 100 around the east. There are a couple model solutions suggesting that with the high still in place over NM, and the front may retreat quick enough by mid afternoon that we still could see temperatures closer to 100 in the west.
Cooler temperatures and breezy north winds are expected behind the boundary. Another upper trough and cold front will swing swd from Canada for Tue nt. Daytime heating ahead of the approaching trough will likely result in sct showers and isold storms for Tue afternoon and evening over srn WI.
Warmer temperatures and slightly higher humidity are in place as expected this afternoon. We anticipate dry conditions into the evening as weak high pressure slides south and east, allowing a weak front to push south toward our area. We will maintain just a slight chance of convection over the Evansville Tri-State for later tonight as the High Resolution guidance suggests some activity could sustain and make it before weakening or dissipation.
Storms today have begun to develop over the higher elevations east of Tucson and are currently drifting southwestward. The ridge centered to our north will continue to meander around the Four Corners region this week with continuous east to southeast flow maintaining the low to mid grade monsoonal moisture. Minimum RH values will drop to 10-20 percent this afternoon over the lower elevations before gradually increasing through late this week.
Overall, height fields will lower some by midweek as the ridge continues to slide slowly west and a longwave trough begins to deepen across the eastern half of the country. This slight pattern change coupled with easterly low level flow behind Tuesday's boundary will help shave a few degrees off high temperatures with the big question being how much of the expansive heat dome can be eroded before the high pressure center begins to strengthen again and expand back east.
1033 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A cold front will move into the region late tonight and pass of to the south and east by early Tuesday afternoon. High pressure builds back in the remainder of Tuesday and provides dry conditions with seasonable temperatures.
A cold front will bring about a northerly wind shift tomorrow morning. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Ridge ridge ridge.
The activity is mostly isolated due to subsidence associated with the upper level ridge nosing eastward over the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Shower and thunderstorm activity will accompany the trough, which is expected to meander over the region through mid to late week and perhaps beyond.
High pressure continues to dominate the region with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Latest surface analysis shows a string of low pressure systems from Lake Superior to IA to KS pushing a cold front through portions of the MS Valley and toward the OH Valley. A northwesterly nocturnal LLJ will rejuvenate convective activity along the aforementioned cold front overnight over central IN. More insolation south of there will allow temps to rise into the low 90s. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the weather by advecting a drier and more stable airmass behind Tuesday's frontal passage (see Short Term section above).
517 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof shifting from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with ridge rebuilding across the Northern Rockies. Upper ridge will gradually build eastward into the Northern Plains by mid week with temps on the rise.
Additional showers and thunderstorms still expected to return by the afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures. Light and variable winds and still plenty of surface moisture may allow for fog development overnight ahead of the broad Midwest trough for Tuesday. As the trough remains to our north, the front will stall a bit, and keep chances for showers in during the overnight hours as well.
/issued 336 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/ Warm and dry conditions prevail over the forecast area this afternoon as a broad ridge over the western US extends into the region. This will provide a weakness in the ridging, which will separate the ridge over the rockies from the Bermuda high off the SE Atlantic coast and will mildly extend the trough from the NE US to the SE US through most of the week. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday and increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it.
A weak surface boundary was situated across eastern Iowa into NW Illinois this afternoon with a muggy airmass pooling along it (dewpoints in the low/mid 70s). Isolated showers and storms are possible late this afternoon through the evening along a weak cold front. For Tuesday, beautiful mid summer weather is expected with highs in the low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity levels. Southwest US ridges holds in place through the week with the active pattern located to our north until late week. This ridge shifts east in week two increasing the excessive heat threat.
Rest of today: In lieu of yesterday's cold front and this morning's showers and storms, much of the region will experience a rather pleasant day for July.
328 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The axis of the Atlantic subtropical ridge is currently sitting right atop the Florida Keys and coastal waters. Over the next several hours though, the ridge axis will slowly begin to lift northward in response to the troughiness over the mid-Atlantic coast abating. The light to gentle winds will persist in easterly to southeasterly flow for the most part through the entire forecast as the Atlantic ridge establishes over the Florida Peninsula with the axis to the north of the islands, a typical summertime synoptic position for the ridge.
245 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The midlevel ridge continues to drift east from the west coast, and helps to amplify the Four Corners ridge at the same time.
1034 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 (Rest of tonight) Mostly clear skies tonight as we remain under high pressure north of the frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast.
220 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge further north now over the Four Corners Region, with northwest flow over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving over Nebraska, extending down into the forecast area. Today highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to the ridge building slightly further northward. Late in the afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west. Tonight the short wave trough will move over the forecast area.
357 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return to the region today with the encroachment of a cold front. Models are not in good agreement with the timing or the evolution of convection with the cold front.
1132 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Ridge of high pressure aloft sprawled from UT across NM and into OK. Cold front pushing south and wwd into NM at 05Z aided by convection. A very active 48 hours is in store as a moist back door cold front surges southwest thru eastern NM into the RGV.
Light northeast flow will continue, maintained by a weak cold front which will attempt to fropa the area later today. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Ridge ridge ridge.
Dewpoint temperatures should stay in the lower 60s and winds will be around 11 kts from the northwest through the day. An upper-level ridge to the west will gradually move east toward the region in the latter half of the week.
826 PM PDT Mon Jul 11 2022 a weak trough along the California Coast will maintain slight cooling west of the mountains through Tuesday, while hot weather prevails over the deserts. After Tuesday, high pressure will expand over the region, spreading the heat farther to the west. Our mid summer A/C is courtesy of a deepening trough parked just off the coast.
The upper level trough that gave us showers and storms days prior continues to bring slightly unstable air down from Canada this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be around climate averages to slightly above normal as highs reach into the low to mid 80s.
436 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Warmer and more humid weather will return today into midweek as Bermuda High pressure dominates. Unsettled weather will return mid to late week as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days. Bermuda High will begin to dominate with warmer and moister southerly return flow developing today. Will include some iso to sct convection possible in this area with main focus associated with convergence along sea breeze, but also minor perturbations riding up around ridge building up form the Bahamas in the mid levels today and tonight could provide some added support aloft.
220 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across eastern Montana into the western Dakota.
1252 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return to the region today with the encroachment of a cold front. Models are showing little moisture or lift with the pre-frontal trough that will swing through late tonight. Models are not in good agreement with the timing or the evolution of convection with the cold front.
Expect conditions through today will remain quiet as a building ridge over the western US nudges high pressure at the surface off to our east. Return flow around the high will bring warmer air from the south up into the High Plains with highs today around 90 degrees. By this evening convergence and isentropic lift associated with a warm front may be strong enough to develop a few isolated thunderstorms across western Nebraska, though capping in the east should keep convective development in check.