Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z FEATURE SOME VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST. WOULD EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN UP AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
235 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY COVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A WARMING TREND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE DESERTS.
OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE HIGHER GUSTS ALONG LAKESIDE COUNTIES AND THE HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE. GREEN LAKE AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER SNOW/WIND COMBINATION. WITH SNOW ENDING AROUND 06Z WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXES.
849 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015 SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. AND VERY WEAK ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH OFFSHORE TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS FROM THE EASTPAC ACROSS THE SW U.
AFTER A COOL DAY AREA WIDE IT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM SW NM INTO CENTRAL BAJA CA. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SSE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ENERGY OFF NRN BAJA CA COAST DROPS S. WARMER SUNDAY WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA.
However, any left over puddles on roadways may freeze late tonight as temps fall back below freezing.
A cold front will bring a colder airmass through southern Missouri today, allowing for that change over to snow.
413 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TODAY.
SURFACE OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT.
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN.
CDFNT/UPPER TROF NOW OVER KS/OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY/TONIGHT. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM BMX/OHX WERE VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER AS THE CDFNT/UPPER TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY THE CHC OF SHRA WILL INCREASE. MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT RUNS.
1254 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015 The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area this morning. As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15 mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
320 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO WNW BTWN 02/02-04Z WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT.
311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT.
WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT INLAND FROM LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FROM MAINLY C TX BACK TOWARDS GLS. SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN PRECIP UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON.
Still seeing MVFR conditions with spotty areas of -SN over parts of central MT as last remnants of moisture from the upper-level trof to our east work their way out of the region. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with a chance of snow for the lower elevations.
The cold front will still be well to the west of our CWA but leading showers an isolated thunderstorms will reach mainly our western zones by late afternoon/early evening.
MOIST LOW-LEVELS CAN LEAD TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SW WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AT TYS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AFTER 02/00Z.
SW/WRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT FROM MID MRNG TO MID AFTN BEFORE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.
403 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
421 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
304 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN IOWA DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH NEARS. ONE WEATHER ITEM THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IS WARMER TEMPS.
THE FOG WILL LIFT OUT BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY TODAY. THE FOG WILL LIFT OUT BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR MUCH WARMER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FROM THEN ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES IN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART TODAY AND THE NORTHERN PORTION AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH MONDAYS WEATHER DRY AND QUITE COLD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LACK OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA.
There is a cold front in the TX Panhandle moving south that will bring a northerly wind shift and combined with daytime heating should lift CIG/VIS to at least MVFR 15-18Z. It looks like it will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today across the Big Bend.
THIS LOWER LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH INCREASING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 500 TO 300 HPA LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CANADIAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 6-12 MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. TODAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BUT THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD KEEP INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED AND UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THERE MAY BE A LENGTHY BREAK IN THE RAINFALL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA SINCE WELL BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THE LOW/MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BEEN SO DRY THAT PRECIP HASN'T BEEN ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 37 39 24 / 90 100 40 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 37 38 23 / 80 100 60 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 35 36 23 / 80 100 40 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 38 39 18 / 60 100 70 10 TN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
Precipitation will begin to intensify this evening with the approach of the upper level jet stream, especially in the higher terrain. Precipitation will gradually taper off for the valleys by Monday morning, with light snow continuing in the higher terrain. A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible for northwestern Montana valleys Monday morning as drier air works into the snow production zones aloft, although confidence in this occurring is fairly low at this time.
THERE WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN ENOUGH RAINFALL SO THAT ROADS WON'T HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO COMPLETELY DRY OUT BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED MARINE STRATOCU WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INTO TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT TO WITHIN VFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UNTIL EARLY EVENING. /ISSUED 418 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND THEY WILL START TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW LEE- SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST.
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
All sites will become VFR by late morning/early afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/ The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area this morning. As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15 mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT BRING WIDESPREAD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY S TO SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART TODAY AND THE NORTHERN PORTION AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH MONDAYS WEATHER DRY AND QUITE COLD.
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN IOWA DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH NEARS. ONE WEATHER ITEM THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IS WARMER TEMPS.
CDFNT/UPPER TROF NOW OVER KS/OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY/TONIGHT. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM BMX/OHX WERE VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER AS THE CDFNT/UPPER TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY THE CHC OF SHRA WILL INCREASE. MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT RUNS. SINCE THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MRNG.
However, any left over puddles on roadways may freeze late tonight as temps fall back below freezing. Temps on Monday will likely struggle to reach freezing in most areas, and will probably stay in the 20s up along the I-64 corridor. Cold Canadian high pressure will move in over area Monday night.
333 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
350 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY COVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A WARMING TREND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE DESERTS.
CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TIMING FOR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR TO IFR AS HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 37 39 24 / 90 100 40 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 37 38 23 / 80 100 60 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 35 36 23 / 80 100 40 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 38 39 18 / 60 100 70 10 TN.
521 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK.
717 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK.
958 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASING SPEEDS BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST.
THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE CEILING TRENDS IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO AROUND 17Z. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1047 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED.
THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE AS WE COME UNDER BETTER WAA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND STRONG SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KTS. CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVERNIGHT HELD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY AND WE ARE STARTING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 3-6Z.
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RESULTING IN WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
317 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.
A cold front will bring a colder air mass through southern Missouri today, allowing for that change over to snow.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z FEATURE SOME VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST. WOULD EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN UP AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. EARLIER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS HINT AT A SECOND TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT DURING THE DAY. WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING INTENSITIES PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT.
442 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS PINCHED OFF OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST TODAY. AND ANTICIPATE DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT GOING INTO MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ELEVATED WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. GFS IS COMING IN ON THE WARMER SIDE. WHILE THE NAM KEEPS EVERYTHING MUCH COOLER IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENT THINKING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING OCCURRING WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 40S TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATED THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING INTO THE GRAND FLATS IN EAST CENTAL UT. AS THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO WESTERN MEXICO.
418 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND THEY WILL START TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW LEE- SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST.
SHOULD SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROF PUSH INTO THE REGION 18Z-20Z WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT 21Z AT KAUS AND KDRT THEN AROUND 23Z FOR KSAT/KSSF. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY. WITH ACTUAL COLD FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA AROUND 21Z AND SOUTHERN CWA AND SAN ANTONIO AREA AROUND 00Z. A FEW HI RES MODELS INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA. COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER AND COOLER ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.
525 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
954 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. REMAIN AT THE FREEZING MARK BUT SHOULD WARM TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT HOUR. GIVEN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE FALLEN TO/BELOW FREEZING AND ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. AS WELL AS REPORTS OF ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER LOWS INTO THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
/ISSUED 306 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/ COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ONLY A COUPLE OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY TO WARMER LEVELS THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE BEING POST FRONTAL. THE WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER.
919 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE MISSOURIVALLEY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALSO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
830 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE COMMON BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE WARMER DESERTS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SWRN CONUS AS REPEATED DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC BASIN INTO CNTRL AND NRN CALIFORNIA.