Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light west and southwest winds have kept the low level moisture from returning, and dewpoints have stayed in the 30s for many locations. Intense upper level trough still set to move into the Southwest US by Sunday morning and then into the Southern Rockies by Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will bring strong north winds late in the night and some MVFR to possibly IFR stratus will follow. Temperatures are near freezing at a few locations but impacts should be minimal given antecedent warm conditions. A cold front is expected to progress across the area later tonight bringing cooler temperatures and a period of post-frontal northerly winds of around 15 to 25 mph.
Despite freezing temperatures at some locations, impacts from icing are unlikely given warm surface temperatures. A cold front will bring strong north winds late in the night and some MVFR to possibly IFR stratus will follow. Temperatures are near freezing at a few locations but impacts should be minimal given antecedent warm conditions. A cold front is expected to progress across the area later tonight bringing cooler temperatures and a period of post-frontal northerly winds of around 15 to 25 mph.
555 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 High pressure ridge is over southeast IL/southwest IN early this morning and this will continue to move east through the day. Precip should be primarily rain, but as surface temps decrease to near freezing in the north, rain or freezing rain will be possible. Based on temps and forecast soundings, the freezing rain chances, though in the 20pct category, will be mainly in areas east and northeast of I-74. Overnight lows in the north will be at or just below freezing, while central and southeast areas will be warmer, in the middle to upper 30s.
415 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Early morning sfc analysis shows low pressure developing over the wrn Gulf off the cntl TX coast with a quasi-stationary front continuing to drape over the waters off the wrn Gulf Coast. while high pressure remains centered over the Mid-South.
A cold front moves through the TAF sites this evening and winds will gust again from the north. As we go into the day on Monday, we will edge out one day with well above average temperatures for early December as south to southwest flow will advect some warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s. This will be followed by a cold front that will move through the Panhandles late Monday night and clear south out of the Panhandles by Tuesday morning. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop to below average.
1100 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Mainly dry weather is expected today with building high pressure. Low pressure is expected to result in precipitation across the region Tuesday, with much colder temperatures and snow showers for the second half of the week. Building high pressure should result in dry weather for the rest of the day, though moisture below a temperature inversion observed on morning soundings should maintain mostly cloudy skies. This may be another good set-up for some icing in the ridges, much like last evening, as cold air is reinforced with in southeasterly upslope flow.
Pcpn pulls out this morning with sfc ridging quickly moving through. A low pressure system will gradually move from northern MN Tue through Ontario and into Quebec by Thu. as the trough passes.
temperatures should be on the rise for the remainder of the day as WAA precedes the troughs arrival Tuesday morning.
806 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Mainly dry weather is expected today with building high pressure. Low pressure is expected to result in precipitation across the region Tuesday, with much colder temperatures and snow showers for the second half of the week. Building high pressure should result in dry weather for the rest of the day, though moisture below a temperature inversion observed on morning soundings should maintain mostly cloudy skies. This may be another good set-up for some icing in the ridges, much like last evening, as cold air is reinforced with in southeasterly upslope flow.
An upper low is spinning over the Big Bend area of Texas, adding to the available moisture pumping northward out of the Caribbean. High pressure is hanging on to our east with a trough to our north and a nearly stationary front over the northern Gulf Coast. The ridge will continue to move to the east ahead of the trough to our north. As the ridge exits to the east, the influence of the pressure gradient will diminish later today through Tuesday. A large upper low will dive out of the Pacific Northwest today, a move across the northern tier states to the western Great Lakes overnight.
High pressure will briefly build in tonight into Tuesday.
Winds will generally be from the south to southwest through this afternoon then shift to more of a northerly direction tonight as a cold front moves through the area. This is due to an upper level low digging southward into the Northern Plains. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 50s across north central Kansas to lower 60s across far southwestern Kansas.
Upper low still positioned west of KDRT at TAF issuance. The upper low is finally beginning to move to the east this morning which signals the beginning of the end of the rain which has been around for 3 days. As the upper low nears the CWA, a dry slot in the mid-levels of the atmosphere should enter the region and begin to dry things out around mid-day with all of the precipitation ending by the late afternoon hours. High temperatures today will once again be in the 50s to the lower 60s which is a bit warmer than previous days due to a few peaks of the sun by the late afternoon hours. After today, the main weather story was the cold front expected for the end of the work week.
Also noted in the water vapor imagery is the approaching dry slot wrapping around the low. With the progression of the low to the northeast later today, this should bring the dry slot across our area later this morning. This will bring the warmer airmass back into the region, with highs in the lower 80s.
/issued 306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning just s of the Big Bend area with radar showing a precip shield across Trans Pecos. 28" of rain had fallen at the Chisos Basin RAWS (5400 ft) and so supportive of snow in the higher elevations. A cold front will move in Tue AM and will make it to around I10, so todays warm-up will be interrupted Tue. With a minor shrtwv trof, strong upslope component and mid level moisture source that will be cold enough for ice crystal we are becoming more concerned about a corridor of a winter wx that could impact S Culberson, Jeff Davis, N Brewster, S Reeves and Pecos counties.
The cold front and subsequent snow bands caused fairly widespread snow accumulations yesterday and last night.
A brief break in the precipitation chances will occur today as high pressure moves across. A potent cold front will bring some snow chances mid week and then usher in much colder air. Current temps across the area are generally in the low to mid 30s. Daytime highs are still projected to top off in the low to mid 40s. Forecast soundings show that some breaks in the clouds will develop this afternoon as the center of high pressure moves off to the east.
All eyes are on associated cold front behind this system which will be our biggest weather story of the week.
1047 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 A weak low pressure system will bring some light snow to the region on today. High pressure will settle in for Tuesday.
The pre-frontal trough is in western Nebraska. During the afternoon, the cold front is expected to move through the forecast area.
Northwest upper-level flow and a ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific will keep the area dry and slightly warmer than average early this week.
Area should remain mostly free of precipitation, with best chance of showers in vicinity of Naples and Gulf coast from late this afternoon through the evening and overnight hours as a cold front moves into the western Gulf of Mexico.
Texas and points downstream across the Lower Mississippi Valley area and much of the Southeastern U. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to reach 40 across central KS while highs climb into the low 40s near the OK state line.
The shift south places portions of the CWA within the deformation zone on the backside of the low. The rest of the forecast timeframe consists of winds and falling temperatures and periods of light snow that wrap around the low as it moves into the Western Lakes region.
638 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 A weak low pressure system will bring some light snow to the region on today. High pressure will settle in for Tuesday.
429 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 (Today and tonight) An upper level low in Mexico, south of the Big Bend, will move northeast across West Central Texas today, with the center moving through Junction and San Saba in the afternoon. Haskell line as the upper low passes east and brings subsidence. Clouds will clear from west to east, mid afternoon through early evening, as the upper low moves east. Brownwood line, where winds will be light and not be influenced by mixing from a cold front late tonight. Lows will range from the lower 40s north to mid and upper 30s south.
A cold front will cross northern Utah this morning before stalling across central Utah this afternoon.
widespread fog/freezing fog has developed at most taf sites this morning with ifr/lifr conditions likely to persist through about 14z before fog dissipates. /Issued 331 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ Areas of dense fog/freezing fog have developed over portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning. Precipitation will spread across the remainder of the area this evening into the overnight hours with the highest rainfall totals across far SE OK/NW AR. Behind departing wave, initial cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight pushing through the remainder of the area during the day Tuesday.
435 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016 Clouds increased over the region early this morning ahead of a fast moving shallow trough approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this system will just reach the eastern Uinta Mountains around 12Z, then pushes into northwest Colorado this morning before eventually stalling somewhere just south of the I-70 Corridor by 00Z/Tues. This will result in widespread blowing and drifting snow in the high passes today. The southern mountains and the lower elevations are unlikely to see much if any precipitation during the day. Drying will spread across the region from west to east late Tuesday night as the trough axis described previously pushes east of the forecast area.
438 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 A slowly weakening upper level low was spinning its way gradually northeast across the Big Bend this morning. Throughout the day, the low will quickly open and swing across Central Texas to the ArkLaTex, flinging a few clouds towards the far southeastern extent of the forecast area. Upper level low that is transiting the state to our southeast today will phase with a multi-core low over the northern sates and central Canada as it ejects into the Ohio Valley.
612 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slide east across the Lower Great Lakes today. The high will drift into New England Tuesday. allowing a low pressure system to track across the upper Ohio Valley. Low pressure now over Lake Ontario and precip has moved east of the forecast area with the system. The ridge of high pressure will move East of the forecast area this evening and move into New England by late Tuesday.
Temperatures are near freezing at a few locations but impacts should be minimal given antecedent warm conditions. A cold front is expected to progress across the area later tonight bringing cooler temperatures and a period of post-frontal northerly winds of around 15 to 25 mph.
358 AM PST Mon Dec 5 2016 A low pressure system moving inland through the western states will bring stronger onshore flow across Southern California through Tuesday with cooling. a return and deepening of the marine layer with areas of night and morning spreading on the lower coastal mountain slopes on Tuesday.
High pressure will keep dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through early this week.
526 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 A mild but breezy day is expected today ahead of a vigorous upper low moving through the northern Plains this evening and tonight. Earlier arrival of the cold air advection associated with the brisk northwest flow will likely cap temperatures cooler in south central SD.
/issued 353 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ A large upper level low pressure system over northern Mexico will lift northeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley through Tuesday morning.
There are a few areas likely seeing some denser fog along with freezing temperatures. This could result in some isolated slick spots on bridges and overpasses. As this system begins to exit the region late tonight, a cold front will push through the area.
Cloud cover over a fresh fallen snow has lead to temperatures staying near or just above freezing tonight across the area. High pressure across the area will drive todays weather. Started with the superblend then tweaked highs to just above freezing over the snowpack.
/issued 438 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ A slowly weakening upper level low was spinning its way gradually northeast across the Big Bend this morning. Throughout the day, the low will quickly open and swing across Central Texas to the ArkLaTex, flinging a few clouds towards the far southeastern extent of the forecast area. Upper level low that is transiting the state to our southeast today will phase with a multi-core low over the northern sates and central Canada as it ejects into the Ohio Valley.
651 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slide east across the Lower Great Lakes today. The high will drift into New England Tuesday. allowing a low pressure system to track across the upper Ohio Valley. Low pressure now over Lake Ontario and precip has moved east of the forecast area with the system. The ridge of high pressure will move East of the forecast area this evening and move into New England by late Tuesday.
Isentropic lift in the 290-305K layer will quickly be diminishing over South Texas this morning as the upper low to the south of Del Rio moves northeast. Water vapor imagery shows dry slot has moved across the region but could see some wrap around moisture from the upper low affect the northern Brush Country this afternoon as the upper low moves to the Austin area by 00Z Tuesday.
641 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Snow has developed over northern North Dakota, and over southern areas of North Dakota as initial wave wrapping around upper low pushes through the area. A negatively tilted trough will deepen over North Dakota this afternoon and a strong cold front will swing through late this morning. This is where the low pressure center is expected to pivot and bring wrap around moisture overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Strong cold air advection will push in behind the cold front today. The high-res models want to bring in a band of moderate snow just east of Bismarck and pivot it up through Jamestown.
A negatively tilted trough will deepen over North Dakota this afternoon and a strong cold front will swing through late this morning. This is where the low pressure center is expected to pivot and bring wrap around moisture overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Strong cold air advection will push in behind the cold front today. The high-res models want to bring in a band of moderate snow just east of Bismarck and pivot it up through Jamestown.
A warm front was across southeast Georgia, and lowered temps for the extreme northern portion of the region to the low to mid 60s. CAPE is forecast to be around 1000 J/kg this afternoon south of the warm front as temperatures warm to near 80 to the lower 80s. This supports strong to marginally severe storms developing south of the warm front late this afternoon and through the overnight hours, especially across the Suwanee Valley and from just south of the I-10 corridor and northward into southeast Georgia.
358 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016 Clouds increased over the region early this morning ahead of a fast moving shallow trough approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this system will just reach the eastern Uinta Mountains around 12Z, then pushes into northwest Colorado this morning before eventually stalling somewhere just south of the I-70 Corridor by 00Z/Tues. This will result in widespread blowing and drifting snow in the high passes today. The southern mountains and the lower elevations are unlikely to see much if any precipitation during the day. Drying will spread across the region from west to east late Tuesday night as the trough axis described previously pushes east of the forecast area.
Winds over the I-80 summit and near Bordeaux in Platte county continue to decrease, thus the 8 am ending to the high wind warning looks on track. Could have likely dropped the high wind warning earlier, though would prefer to err on the side of caution. Attention then turns to the approaching strong cold front expected to pass west to east with steady or slowly falling temperatures in its wake this afternoon. Much colder air will continue to filter into the region in the wake of the initial cold front and will trend towards the colder guidance low temperatures.
while patchy fog has developed along the west and south edge of the low cloud mass. diffuse low pressure which is currently digging into the western Dakotas should coalesce into a strengthening low pressure center in northeast SD by early afternoon. Models are generally consistent in placing the Low center near ABR around 21z. and expect that warmer temps there will slow and sig snowfall accumulations til the late afternoon and evening. Blowing snow could develop during the early morning period in eastern ND as the low pressure center pivots into northwest MN. The Low pressure center is expected to track across northern MN through Tuesday forenoon and into northwest Ontario during the afternoon.
Based on VSBY trends this mrng, went ahead and issued Dense Fog/Freezing Fog Advy for roughly the NRN half of the FA thru 9 AM this mrng. Rain chcs wl dcrs quickly fm the SW late tngt and Tue mrng as the storm sys heads into the lower Ohio Valley region.
404 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016 Upper level analysis shows broad troughing over much of the northern CONUS, with closed lows over Mexico and Saskatchewan. At the surface, low pressure and the cold front are moving into far western SD. Upper trough will move across the Dakotas today. Snow has begun across northeastern WY and the Black Hills this morning, and will expand into the western SD plains as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will range from the low 20s across northeastern WY and northwestern SD, to the 30s across south central SD.
As this occurs the low level flow will veer from south to southwest. High pressure off the Carolina coast will continue to press seaward as low pressure develops along the TX gulf coast. Low pressure deepens as it lifts NE across MS/AL which will tighten the pressure gradient and support increasing south winds 15-20 knots over the open Atlc with seas building to 5 feet.
933 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Aviation section updated A brief break in the precipitation chances will occur today as high pressure moves across. A potent cold front will bring some snow chances mid week and then usher in much colder air. Forecast soundings show that some breaks in the clouds will develop this afternoon as the center of high pressure moves off to the east.
A brief break in the precipitation chances will occur today as high pressure moves across. A potent cold front will bring some snow chances mid week and then usher in much colder air. Forecast soundings show that some breaks in the clouds will develop this afternoon as the center of high pressure moves off to the east.
403 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 High pressure ridge is over southeast IL/southwest IN early this morning and this will continue to move east through the day. Precip should be primarily rain, but as surface temps decrease to near freezing in the north, rain or freezing rain will be possible. Based on temps and forecast soundings, the freezing rain chances, though in the 20pct category, will be mainly in areas east and northeast of I-74. Overnight lows in the north will be at or just below freezing, while central and southeast areas will be warmer, in the middle to upper 30s.
Initial cold front pushed through the area overnight.
For today, expect a cloudy start with the low level moisture trapped within an inversion between 800-900 mb. The highest chances for widespread steady rain will be mainly after midnight through around noon Tuesday.
This along with clear skies supported fog development mainly in the low lying areas. Some of the high res models have been struggling with this surface mixing and therefore are overestimating the low level saturation. There is some evidence of some moisture advection in the lowest layers above the surface, which could support development. Highs should manage the lower to mid 50s. Winds will decrease in the evening as a cold front pushes through the area, but will quickly increase out of the northwest tonight along and behind the front. Cooler temperatures then filter in from the north and lows drop into the mid to upper 20s. By early Tuesday, cold front continues to make its way southward into the Central Plains.
A colder air mass associated with the system will result in near to below freezing overnight temperatures across the Central Valley tonight and Tuesday night. Weak dry cold front is moving south through the region currently. Another shot of cooler air will move into the region tonight and Tuesday as another weak system clips us as it drops down in northwest flow. The main impact is expected to be the coldest temperatures so far this season with large parts of the Central Valley expected to see minimum temperatures drop to around freezing tonight and Tuesday night.
935 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slide east across the Lower Great Lakes today. The high will drift into New England Tuesday. allowing a low pressure system to track across the upper Ohio Valley. The ridge of high pressure will move East of the forecast area this evening and move into New England by late Tuesday.
Otherwise, warm advection continues through the day as thermal ridging builds to the state. Strong south to southwest winds are expected into the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will lift the warm front up to the fall line but with precip continuing to fall into the wedge. With the cold front lagging behind the deep moisture.
NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all now look like they are keeping the onset of precipitation over our area with the upper low now over Old Mexico until after 00Z. There will be an increase of mid and high clouds today in advance of this upper low. The track of the upper low is now slightly farther south which will keep most of the precipitation and the likely/categorical PoPs over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. High pressure behind the system will be the first true Arctic airmass to affect our region this season.
and Tuesday Spotty light mixed precipitation will continue to depart northeast of the area early this morning as a short wave trough shifts east of the area. Clearing line on the heals of the departing system working into Clark county early this morning, so anticipate some brief clearing into at least parts of central Wisconsin early today as a weak ridge slides over. Boundary layer winds also more westerly Tuesday in the wake of the cold front so Lake Superior LES snows should stay north through Tuesday.