Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cumulus field across eastern portions of southwest MN and northwest IA should dissipate this evening, with mainly mid and high clouds building in from the west associated with a shearing trough axis dragging across the northern Plains. Increasing late day high clouds will mark the approach of the next two-part trough crashing the northern Rockies. The low-level jet will increase in the evening, but moisture again will be a precious commodity.
538 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Rain should end tonight as low pressure exits the region. Dry weather is expected Monday before periodic rain chances return Monday night through the rest of the week with crossing low pressure. Rain should taper off from W-E later this evening and overnight as the trough axis crosses, and the low moves toward the East Coast. Wind should also increase with a tightening pressure gradient on the western side of the low.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Warm and breezy across West Central Texas this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Cap is strong but not unbreakable with the low level moisture increase so have included some small PoPs in the forecast. Warmer again on Monday with highs mid 80 to near 90 degrees.
Reimer Upper level short wave trough continues to slide across southern Canada today. Shallow ridging builds back into the region tonight, but transitions back to zonal flow Monday morning ahead of another approaching trough. Moisture streaming into the region should bring shower activity to the high terrain by Monday afternoon.
/Issued 251 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ Strong mid level trough continues to push across the northern sections of the state at this hour. Not to say though that some of the higher elevations aren't getting a few sprinkles which could continue into the evening hours. As trough shifts east of the area tonight, drier conditions will push into the area along with lighter winds as well.
656 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s for overnight lows. Late aftn arrival of decent low level theta-e ridge on nose of 50kt H85 jet likely to spark showers into nw IN/sw MI invof developing warm frontal zone but better prospects expected Mon night timed with better forcing arising within wrn flank of ern lakes centered upper jet. Respectable theta-e ridging through cntrl/nrn zones here may yield some embedded thunder here through daybreak before diminishing. However with poor alignment of conflicting model guidance aloft, Wed period remains most uncertain and further compounded by following dynamic deformation zone expected to develop by Wed aftn and Wed night as upper low bottoms toward lake Erie vcnty.
High pressure overhead, light winds, and full sunshine has led to a beautiful day with afternoon temps in the mid to upper 60s. For Monday, increasing southerly flow ahead of two separate waves of low pressure will kick off a round of low- level theta-e advection with dewpoints rising to near 50 F. Monday Night There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form along the intersection of a WSW 850mb moisture plume and a southward sinking cold front.
Expect mostly clr skies, and with light/near calm winds, this should allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 50s for areas north of I-10. VFR expected trough the period. These pleasant conditions are courtesy of high pressure at the surface sliding eastward across the western Gulf Coast states along with a dry airmass brought in by NW flow aloft on the backside of an ERN CONUS trof. Rains will come to an end from N-S through the afternoon, with cooler temperatures expected WED night due to the intrusion of drier and slightly cooler air.
There may be a few rain showers on Monday at KDLS with a passing cold front and winds increasing to between 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
925 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 A cold front will continue to move southeast of the area tonight, followed by a secondary cold front that will move south through VA and northeastern NC early Monday morning.
Any light shower activity evaporating into the low level dry airmass near the surface is also contributing to the effect. SPC mesoanalysis showing some Dcape in the vicinity and to the east of the trough, so expect this to continue. Overnight lows will remain mild, dipping into the low 40s to low 50s. Tue-Wed: NW flow aloft will prevail -- on the eastern periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West/ Rockies. Thu-Fri: The aforementioned ridge aloft will progress east across the Central Plains in this period. Sat-Sun: Long range guidance suggests that flow aloft will back to the SW as an upper level trough moves ashore the Pacific Coast -- and the aforementioned ridge progresses east across the Mississippi River Valley.
Weak high pressure is building over the area. Observed temperatures are verifying slightly cooler than guidance, therefore lows overnight have been adjusted downwards by up to a few degrees. Lows are expected to drop into the low 40s to low 50s overnight with highs in the 70s tomorrow. Midafternoon GOES water imagery showed an upper low over the Ohio Valley.
Still appears there will be some wet snow over the highest peaks, although significant accumulation still looks unlikely as temperatures in the cloud layer are not expected to support ice crystals for long. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 50 77 57 72 / 0 0 10 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 48 74 57 70 / 0 0 10 40 90 Oak Ridge, TN 69 48 74 56 70 / 0 0 10 50 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 43 71 53 71 / 0 10 10 20 90.
328 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Weather remains quiet this morning with high pressure at the surface just beginning to turn winds back out of the southeast as it treks east of the area. This is resulting in a relatively large temperature spread ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s depending on the cloud cover.
At the surface, weak high pressure is located over eastern Montana. The upper level ridge currently to our west will pass through the Northern Plains today. Expect a warmer day, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
1018 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with a cool front east of the Black Hills. Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the region, with upper low over south central Canada. Cannot totally rule out a shower or two clipping southern parts of northeast WY or far southwest SD late this afternoon, a popup shower or two over the central/southern Black Hills, or a few light showers/sprinkles along the cold front over far eastern portions of the forecast area. Warm conditions continue into Monday as ridging passes east of the region.
At the surface, a weak cold front is pushing south through the northwestern Panhandles as of 07z. Mid level temperatures in progged soundings have trended warmer, even in the GFS, which had been more aggressive with precipitation for the past several days of runs.
330 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Quiet weather will continue through early Monday afternoon as weak upper level ridging moves across the Great Plains. A developing low pressure system over South Dakota will drag a cold front across Nebraska.
Winds will shift out of the southeast and become breezy late in the morning as the pressure gradient increases between high pressure to the east and low pressure building over the Texas Panhandle.
353 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Dry weather is expected today before periodic rain chances return tonight through the rest of the week with crossing low pressure.
1059 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Showers already beginning to develop across the High Plains and adjacent terrain as of 2 pm. The warming trend and drying conditions continue into the extended as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
High pressure will result in dry and seasonable weather today.
330 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure builds into the area today. Warmer into the weekend. Any lingering precipitation should taper off by morning as the low pressure system continues its eastward retreat. During the day today, heights increase as an upper level ridge moves overhead and high pressure begins to build into the area. Tonight, heights begin to fall and clouds build back in as a warm front approaches. Seasonable temperatures are forecast overnight with lows of 30s in the mountains and 40s in the lowlands.
The result of this is weak winds, which will allow temperatures to approach the 80s near the IA/NE/SD border, with mid 70s along the Highway 14 corridor. High resolution guidance is suggesting this will occur largely as a line from north to south, likely focused on the cold front sweeping through the area. Winds will be increasing throughout the day, as the low pressure system tracks eastwards leaving behind a tightening pressure gradient. There will likely be a bit of a lull for the rest of the morning, but ahead of the main trough there will be another round of showers and thunderstorms in the early afternoon.
In this case the dryline will mix e away from the MSLP trough and has such it will make a rapid return wwd late afternoon/early evening. We will opt to expand the slight chance PoPs from the Lower Trans Pecos across ern PB this afternoon/evening, despite the presence of SB CINH to overcome. Meanwhile the cold front Tue night/Wed AM will cool temps back into the 80s for most areas Wed. Above normal temps will be much moreso Fri with mid-level ridging overhead with high temps 100-105.
This will occur as the low-level thermal ridge that was directed into the Four Corners states edges this way. The high-based convection will bring a risk of severe weather, including large hail and damaging winds, and a severe mention has been added to the weather grids roughly south and east of a Guthrie to Lake Alan Henry line.
1254 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Dry weather is expected today before periodic rain chances return tonight through the rest of the week with crossing low pressure.
1154 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s for overnight lows. Late aftn arrival of decent low level theta-e ridge on nose of 50kt H85 jet likely to spark showers into nw IN/sw MI invof developing warm frontal zone but better prospects expected Mon night timed with better forcing arising within wrn flank of ern lakes centered upper jet. Respectable theta-e ridging through cntrl/nrn zones here may yield some embedded thunder here through daybreak before diminishing. However with poor alignment of conflicting model guidance aloft, Wed period remains most uncertain and further compounded by following dynamic deformation zone expected to develop by Wed aftn and Wed night as upper low bottoms toward lake Erie vcnty.
Otherwise high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the upcoming week, with record high temperatures possible by midweek. Afternoon temperatures around the area are in the low to mid 70s and mid 80s for far southern Utah. The flat ridge pattern in place will persist under mostly zonal flow through Monday.
123 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 VFR conditions under light and variable winds through this morning as high pressure moves into the region.
350 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 The surface anticyclone has settled over the Mid-South early this morning, resulting in light winds in the dry, post-frontal air mass. Otherwise, expect a decent day across the Mid-South with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 70s.
Slightly cooler and significantly drier air is beginning to settle in across the peninsula with high pressure taking over control. With the center of the high pressure currently situated off to the NE of the peninsula, a northerly wind is allowing the more pleasant air to filter in from the north. However, rapid amplification of the upper-level pattern will quickly begin to return as a trough axis in the Rockies begins to dig and tilt negatively.
As a northern stream upper level trough progresses over the northeastern CONUS and off over the Atlantic, generally zonal flow will continue through Monday night over the northern Gulf coast.
As weak troughing develops over western NE later in the day, light winds with then veer to the southwest again for this evening.
219 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Shallow ridging across the region to start today will begin to break down with an approaching short wave moving through late this afternoon and overnight.
226 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Dry weather is expected today before periodic rain chances return tonight through the rest of the week with crossing low pressure.
331 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure builds into the area today. Warmer into the weekend. Any lingering precipitation should taper off by morning as the low pressure system continues its eastward retreat. During the day today, heights increase as an upper level ridge moves overhead and high pressure begins to build into the area. Tonight, heights begin to fall and clouds build back in as a warm front approaches. Seasonable temperatures are forecast overnight with lows of 30s in the mountains and 40s in the lowlands.
453 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to remain in the lower to middle 30s early this morning with widespread frost.
Clouds will be on the increase this evening and tonight as a warm front begins to push northeast through the region.
Expect gusty south winds due to the low level jet tonight and a tight pressure gradient on Monday. /issued 233 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) Warm and breezy across West Central Texas this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Cap is strong but not unbreakable with the low level moisture increase so have included some small PoPs in the forecast. Warmer again on Monday with highs mid 80 to near 90 degrees.
High pressure will continue to build over the area today with mostly clear skies and dry air.
314 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 A few morning showers will move across the region, but then we'll see mostly clear skies the rest of the day as high pressure builds in from the west. The warmer temperatures, combined with dewpoints in the 30s will lead to low afternoon humidity as well.
Ridging returns later today as thermal ridge axis moves through the forecast area this afternoon. Surface cold front will move into NE WY and NW SD by late afternoon, with increased chances for rain and gusty winds.
326 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure is quietly building across the southwest quarter of the CONUS with zonal flow in place over the northwest quarter. Within the zonal flow lie progressive weak ridge trough couplets where the ridges are hot and dry and the transition to troughs brings isolated to convective showers. Enough lift will be in place along the Montana central mountains for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms to spark off and be caught up in the trough's lift as it migrates east during the afternoon. Tuesday: Pressure gradient behind the trough will lead to gusty winds after sunrise. A dry line of sorts will have formed overnight and its placement and timing will generally peg down where the highest Fire Weather risks will be.
646 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure builds into the area today. Warmer into the weekend. Any lingering precipitation should taper off by morning as the low pressure system continues its eastward retreat. During the day today, heights increase as an upper level ridge moves overhead and high pressure begins to build into the area. Tonight, heights begin to fall and clouds build back in as a warm front approaches. Seasonable temperatures are forecast overnight with lows of 30s in the mountains and 40s in the lowlands. Warm front lingers along the northern tier of counties Tuesday/Tuesday night before lifting north ahead of the cold front.
Clouds will be on the increase this evening and tonight as a warm front begins to push northeast through the region. As the warm front passes late tonight into early Tuesday, better isentropic ascent across northern and northeast Kentucky could yield a few showers.
A cold front will move through the Northern Rockies today and impact the region with rain showers starting this morning with a potential for a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon during the frontal passage.
A weak cold front is pushing south through the forecast area this morning, with northwesterly winds expected at all sites by mid- morning. At the surface, a weak cold front is pushing south through the northwestern Panhandles as of 07z. Mid level temperatures in progged soundings have trended warmer, even in the GFS, which had been more aggressive with precipitation for the past several days of runs. For Tuesday, northern stream wave pushes a cold front south through the Panhandles during the afternoon.
As weak troughing develops over western NE later in the day, light winds with then veer to the southwest again for this evening. A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
737 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Dry weather is expected today before periodic rain chances return tonight through the rest of the week with crossing low pressure. Much of the stratus deck will continue to thin/shift east as the previous system exits and high pressure/ridging build.
Temperatures at 700 mb will be warming about 3 to 4 degrees C over yesterday, allowing for readings about 6 to 8 degrees warmer today especially under the clear skies. However westerly winds across the high mountains and northern plains will be about 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph across the high mountain passes. Tuesday will be a slightly cooler and breezy day across the forecast area behind tonight's cold front.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 50 77 57 71 / 0 0 10 30 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 48 74 57 69 / 0 0 10 20 90 Oak Ridge, TN 69 48 74 56 68 / 0 0 10 30 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 43 70 53 70 / 0 10 10 10 90.
The last of the low level stratus is about to burn off looking at satellite trends. Otherwise, as a low pressure system moves east of the region today, expecting breezy northwesterly winds and low relative humidity today across much of the area. The H5 upper low will move southeastward into the Northern Plains early Tuesday morning with showers preceding the approach.
705 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 A few morning showers will move across the region, but then we'll see mostly clear skies the rest of the day as high pressure builds in from the west. The warmer temperatures, combined with dewpoints in the 30s will lead to low afternoon humidity as well.
A cold front moved south and away from FL late last night and high clouds moved out of Martin county before sunrise, leaving clear skies.
Upper level ridging will rebuild quickly, and by Tuesday, skies will clear and temperatures will jump up significantly, reaching highs about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
In the upper levels, a longwave trough from the northern plains to the southern Rockies was shifting into the southern plains. The longwave trough will push the surface system eastward, with the warm front shifting back to the northeast. Latest model data shows dewpoints well into the 60s in most areas by the afternoon Tuesday, with low pressure developing along a cold front as it moves into eastern Oklahoma.
The H5 upper low will move southeastward into the Northern Plains early Tuesday morning with showers preceding the approach.
As we move into Tuesday subtle differences in the timing of a cold front continues to be the main factor in figuring how much severe weather we will see. Current thought is the driving force of this front will be a upper level trough digging from the northern Plains into the Mississippi River Valley. This system as it digs on Tuesday will develop a closed low which would lead itself to the slower solution per the NAM.
Temperatures will be above average, starting out with afternoon highs in the low 80s on Monday.
High pressure will continue to build over the area with mostly clear skies and low humidity. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s inland and around 60 near the coast.
If extensive clouds do not develop, temperatures would be considerably warmer in southeast KS.
The models and ensembles continue to show two short wave troughs affecting our cwa tonight through Tuesday bringing in very good chances of showers and storms. Therefore, winds will go light this morning and then turn south this afternoon and evening into the first short wave trough coming in from the northwest. For tonight, rain along with embedded thunder will spread quickly from west to east with lift from the first short wave trough. The rest of Tuesday will be interesting when lift from the second short wave trough drops in from the northwest. Also, expect northwest winds behind the digging upper trough to increase across much of central sd and become windy.
High pressure will result in dry and seasonable weather today. Then, a low pressure will bring increasing chances of rain to the area starting tonight with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to central Indiana by Tuesday night. After that, dry weather will return late in the week under the influence of high pressure.
530 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the northern Gulf coast today. The High will begin to move off to our east over the next 24 hours. High pressure will move off the Carolina and NE Florida coast by Tuesday afternoon eventually bringing dewpoints back up well in the 60s areawide with near average max_T on Tuesday around 80.
/issued 328 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020/ Weather remains quiet this morning with high pressure at the surface just beginning to turn winds back out of the southeast as it treks east of the area. This is resulting in a relatively large temperature spread ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s depending on the cloud cover.
Ridging returns later today as thermal ridge axis moves through the forecast area this afternoon. Surface cold front will move into NE WY and NW SD by late afternoon, with increased chances for rain and gusty winds. Main concern Tuesday will be strong, gusty winds as low pressure rapidly deepens off to our east and mid-level jet moves through the region. Upper level ridge returns to the region for the latter half of the week.
Tuesday looks to be the warmest day this week as high pressure to the south builds northward.
Tuesday, for the most part, should be a rain-free and warmer day, as winds increase from the south ahead of an advancing frontal system in the Plains and Midwest.
Near the surface, a weak trough axis is slowly moving southeast across central and south central Kansas. As weak troughing develops over western NE later in the day, light winds with then veer to the southwest again for this evening. A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
The center of the low will track eastward across the Northern Plains Tuesday morning, with the attendant cold front extending southward into the CWA. Models are coming into better agreement with the timing of this frontal passage, with the cold front entering north central KS by around sunrise Tuesday morning and likely exiting southeast of the CWA by early evening.
/issued 350 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020/ The surface anticyclone has settled over the Mid-South early this morning, resulting in light winds in the dry, post-frontal air mass. Otherwise, expect a decent day across the Mid-South with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 70s. We may see a bit of a lull in precipitation chances on Tuesday in the wake of the departing trough. A blocking high over low pattern across Quebec will slow this trough, shunting it a bit farther south than yesterday's solutions. Strong forcing for ascent downstream of this wave will overspread the area ahead of the attendant cold front.
941 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 It appears as fropa has occurred, or is occurring, as the boundary bridges through the island chain.
Expect gusty south winds due to the low level jet and tight surface pressure gradient.