Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
But in the lower levels the winds will shift to out of the south/southwest bringing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
454 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Cold front stalls to our south.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through midweek as an upper level trough develops of of the West Coast.
The 550 frontal zone moves east allowing the upper ridge to build into this area by Tuesday.
Surface dewpoints over the east were running in the lower to mid 50s this hour. Deeper low level moisture, with dewpoints in the lower 60s, was sitting over far southwest South Dakota. High temperatures today will be warmer with maxes reaching the lower 80s. Temperatures will remain more moderated, but will be slightly warmer into the mid 80s. Through the remainder of the work week, the Pacific trough which is keeping the area under the southwest flow, will remain over the West Coast. Going into the weekend the, the trough will finally dislodge from the coast.
A strong U/L ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico will continue to retrograde to the southern plains through Tuesday. A weak U/L trough will drop over the southeast U.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Current water vapor satellite imagery shows the center of a 500 mb ridge of high pressure over the Texas Big Bend and north-central Mexico.
The mid/upper level flow pattern this morning is charcterized by a sprawling longwave ridge maintaining itself over the center of the nation with troffines continuing on either side. At the base of the ridge, near our area, a weakness in the ridge/impulse was located over OK into eastern TX.
At the moment the low clouds have formed across the central coast and eastern L. The low cloud formation is picking up steam and by dawn low clouds should cover most of the coasts and vlys.
338 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the area today into Tuesday.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds indc a trof along the West Coast and a ridge centered along the NM/TX border. as the trof along the West Coast moves east and flattens the ridge. The thermal ridge will edge east leading to widespread 100-105 temps with 105+ along the Rio Grande River Valley.
235 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Cold front stalls to our south.
A cool upper trough will slowly cross the Great Basin today. Weak high pressure will follow briefly tonight into Tuesday morning. A dry southwest flow is forecast to develop beginning Tuesday afternoon, with strong high pressure moving back in for the upcoming weekend.
While away from Lake Superior some clearing is expected today, near the lake cloudy skies are expected to persist through the short-term period due to easterly winds ahead of the next low pressure system. Temperatures seasonable away from the lake, but a bit cooler than normal near the lake today and tomorrow. On the synoptic scale the mid-level ridge axis across the upper Midwest into northwest Ontario will gradually slide eastward across the upper Great Lakes today. The longwave trough over the desert southwest will move across the Rockies today, ejecting into the Great Plains on Tuesday. Today as the rain ends skies should clear across north-central Minnesota as the mid/upper level moisture exits and a weak high pressure builds in. Highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 70s - again cooler by the lake.
Current dwpts in the 40s and 50s will rise into the 60s by this afternoon, resulting in heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. The 00Z forecast models show strong upper level ridge that has been over IL past few days, to break down starting Tue and more so on Wed as a fairly strong short wave/trof over southern CA ejects northeast into the upper MS river valley with a cold front pushing southeast into central IL later Wed. Hot weather to continue with highs in the lower 90s with afternoon heat indices peaking from 95-100F on Tue and around 100F on Wed. Thu will be dry with dewpoints lowering into the low to mid 60s Thu afternoon.
216 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 A cooler and drier air mass will prevail over the region today, in the wake of a backdoor cold frontal passage early this morning. A backdoor cold front (located in southern VA at 05Z) will surge southward through central NC by 12Z, advecting a thoroughly dry/ stable airmass into the region. The cool/dry airmass deposited in the wake of the backdoor cold front will result in high temperatures significantly cooler than yesterday, ranging from ~80F in the Northern Piedmont and NE Coastal Plain to mid 80s (84- 87F) in the Southwest Piedmont. Expect highs Tuesday rebounding into the lower 90s, with lows Tuesday night rebounding into the lower to mid 70s.
Drier and warmer mid level air will work its way into the region which will produce hotter afternoon temps. Afternoon temps will reach the mid/upper 90s with heat indices around 105 degrees inland to the lower 90s degrees with heat indices of 100 to 195 degrees along the coast. The upper ridge over the area nudges east while a short wave trough moves east across the gulf coast. Afternoon temps a couple of degrees cooler due to more cloud cover but manage to make it to the lower/mid 90s with heat indices 100 to 105 degrees inland to around 90 with heat indices around 100 degrees along coast.
256 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Low pressure will remain stalled just to our northeast today. The gusty northwest breeze around this low will continue today, along with seasonably cool temperatures and unsettled weather.
S/WV trough across NV and CA will weaken as it ejects NE across the Rockies. Moist environment with theta-e ridging and advection are noted at H85-H7 while ML cape values are forecast to approach or exceed 2500 J/KG this aftn.
705 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure over the area today will drift eastward off the East coast this evening. This will allow a warm front to lift across the region on Thursday.
1024 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Update/Synopsis High pressure will move east today with temperatures and humidity increasing into the weekend.
716 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure builds over the area today, then passes offshore Thursday.
For today, not expecting as much afternoon shower activity, however some of the high res guidance is suggesting that over the mountains and towards the Dakotas there will be some isolated thunderstorm activity. Tempeatures will be just a tad cooler as northwest winds works into the area, reducing the downslope warming.
Temperatures are running 4-7F degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across northwest Oklahoma. In addition, 850 mb temperatures are progged to be around 2C warmer than yesterday and the airmass is drier (dew points are 1-4F lower than yesterday). Elsewhere, expect temperatures be a slightly warmer than yesterday as well. /issued 321 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ A mid and upper level ridge, centered over Oklahoma, will be the main weather feature over the next several days.
Dew point readings should also rise, getting into the low to mid 70s by afternoon and early evening. High temps look a little cooler and dew points also a little lower.
A cooler day is expected Thursday behind the front.
/issued 355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS maintaining a light onshore low-level flow over the forecast area this morning. Water vapor imagery continues to show mid/upper-level ridging across the cntl CONUS with the ridge axis in place from nrn TX through the Plains States. Short-range high-res models painting a little better POPs over the nern zones by afternoon which seems fair given less capping from ridging aloft to our west. Temps today will nudge upward with slight warming aloft progged in association with the ridging. Thursday looks to be something of a repeat of today with ridge axis hanging to our west.
This combined with the continued humid conditions, will mean heat indices will climb above 105 degrees in the delta once again today, with slightly cooler indices further east. Both the GFS/ECMWF suggest warmer H925/H850 temperatures across the area on Thursday, and this will equate to afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer also.
Stacked high pressure ridge axis meandered near the Fl/Ga state-line early this morning with a light steering flow over SE Ga and a slightly strong ENE steering flow over NE Fl. Looking at satellite loops there could be a trough axis moving southward associated with convection well offshore of the SC coast. Focus for afternoon/evening convection including strong to pulse severe storms will focus generally along and west of the Highway 301 corridor.
/ISSUED / Another warm and humid morning is underway for Southeast Texas with 3 AM temperatures in the mid to upper 70s as the region remains on the periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the Southern Plains. Greater subsidence from the upper ridge and marginally lower moisture levels this afternoon (1. Otherwise, expect high temperatures again in the low 90s along the coast and mid to upper 90s inland. The upper ridge will maintain its influence over the region into into the upcoming weekend, leaving a fairly stagnant pattern for Southeast Texas. Warm and humid mornings with a few showers along the coast will transition to hot and humid afternoons with a stray shower or two generally along and south of the Highway 59 corridor.
Water vapor satellite channels along with RAP analysis clearly depicts the well talked about H7-H5 ridge that is centered over OK/KS/AR this morning. South-central Texas remains just enough on the ridge's southern periphery where weak easterly waves in the H5- H3 layer are able to help provide lift along with sea-breeze activity to produce isolated shower activity across the coast and into the coastal plains. Energy release component values of fuels continue to climb near the highest 90th percentile for this time of year. Thursday will feature a near similar pattern to today but with even less shower coverage as the mid-level ridge strengthens into northern Texas.
VFR flight conditions should be predominant at the terminals today with slightly drier air along with some subsidence within the influence of a large ridge extending east from the plains states.
we will have another round of thunderstorms beginning over the higher terrain around midday. spreading along the palmer divide and cheyenne ridge mid afternoon. Broad high pressure aloft remains over Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle with a resultant Southwest aloft over Colorado.
(Issued 250 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016) As has been advertised at least for the past few days, anticipating very hot and humid conditions to prevail beginning today and extending through at least the weekend due to expansive anticyclone. This ridge axis (anticyclone) is centered over the central/southern plains expanding east over the Southeast. Meanwhile, a pair of troughs are on either side of the ridge on both North America seaboards. As the stronger subsidence from the ridge continues to affect the Southeast on Thursday, temperatures and dewpoints will likely be warmer than Wednesday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the region resulting in another day of hot temperatures.
711 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Aviation High pressure will move east today with temperatures and humidity increasing into the weekend.
High pressure from the Gulf Coast to New England will dominate Indiana weather into the weekend, providing heat and humidity.
Temps will be challenging today, with areas north and east most favorable to maintain clouds and convection, and have highs mid to upper 80s but potential to be cooler. If the ridge was more over our CWA then we would have higher confidence in this verifying.
A sprawling deep layer ridge centered over the central United States continues to provide mean easterly flow, albeit weaker relative to yesterday thanks to some mid/upper troughing moving down the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a thermal ridge has warmed temperatures several degrees aloft (up to -5.
With the sprawling zone of high pressure over the central Plains, most of the atmosphere over the central Gulf Coast has winds from an easterly direction. The only exception is in the lowest 1000 feet or so where winds from the west were found due to a localized lake effect. /issued 329 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ Main focus this week will continue to be impacts from an upper level ridge on the area in terms of temperatures and convection. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly shunted as a result of high pressure subsidence. Dewpoints starting in the mid 70s should fall mainly into the lower 70s with daytime mixing.
Little change to daily temps with Thursday expected to be a degree or two warmer than today.
A weak wave and cold front within the flow aloft has brought isolated showers and thunderstorms to Northeast Montana overnight. That wave moves to the east tonight and ridge builds into the area for Thursday with mainly dry weather.
1203 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure over the area today will drift eastward off the East coast this evening. This will allow a warm front to lift across the region on Thursday.
Short-term/HiRes models continue to show development of showers and thunderstorms this morning along a warm frontal-type zone, but mainly in the west and central parts of the cwa, and specifically in the morning through early afternoon. Temps will be quite warm again today, reaching into the lower 90s in the west, while still remaining in the mid to upper 80s in the east and northeast. Primary focus remains with the heat into the weekend, as massive 598 dm upper high switches to more of a west-east configuration this weekend.
For today, the heat continues with upper level warm ridging intact across the Central Plains. South to southwest winds increase to 15 to 24 mph in the afternoon with a lee trough and clear skies.
Upper features remain the same as last few days with large upper ridge in the Central U. slowly retrograding westward as upper trough down the eastern seaboard migrates into the Western Atlantic. At the surface, the Bermuda high pressure ridge axis continues north of the area into the Deep South. Warm and humid summertime temps at or just above normal daytime highs near 90 along the coast to the lower and middle 90s inland, while overnight lows remain in the mid to upper 70s.
1019 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2016 High pressure will build southeast across the area through this evening before drifting offshore through Thursday.
1241 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure builds over the area today, then passes offshore Thursday.
931 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure over the area today will drift eastward off the East coast this evening. This will allow a warm front to lift across the region on Thursday.
Due to the large ridge axis sitting off to the north, deeper moisture will remain south of I-10 today increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to about 30% for this region.
Upper level high pressure builds over central U. Weak disturbances could drop southeast around ridge. 12z 850 mb temp a degree lower at Pbz but a degree warmer at Iln compared to 00z. Upper ridge continues to strengthen and build eastward at the start of the period.
07z surface analysis shows ridging from IL up into northern MN, with low pressure over the western Dakotas. Outside of the convective threat, should see a continued warming trend today as southerly flow continues under the building ridge. 850 mb temps rise into the upper 20s to near 30 Celsius by Thursday afternoon, ahead of the cold front that is dropping south through MN as a result of the short wave tracking across southern Canada and flattening the ridge.
An offshore upper low will move slowly toward Western Washington through Thursday.
Strong high pressure aloft across the plains states with an upper level trough along the Pacific Northwest coast will keep the Great Basin under a warm southwest flow aloft through Thursday.
1040 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania today, then off the Mid Atlantic coast by late week.
1022 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 A cold front will move into the area this morning then push offshore this afternoon. High pressure will build in late week into the weekend. Latest sfc analysis shows the slow moving cold front over the northern portions of NC, but based on the KMHX radar VAD winds. Expecting the sfc cold front to completely push through late this morning after boundary layer starts to mix and deepen with daytime heating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and evening, aided by deepening mid level trough and weak frontal boundary.
The weather today will be quiet with warmer temperatures this afternoon. Out next attention will be the upper low centered near 40m/135w. This will move towards us over the next 24 to 36 hours and bring cooler temperatures and a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly along the Cascades and portions of the East Side. Broad, weak low pressure will remain over the waters through Thursday night.
939 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure builds over the area today, then passes offshore Thursday.
1033 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will build south of the region through Thursday.
Temperatures will range from the 90s to low 100s again today, with temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday across western areas. For today, not expecting as much afternoon shower activity, however some of the high res guidance is suggesting that over the mountains and towards the Dakotas there will be some isolated thunderstorm activity. Tempeatures will be just a tad cooler as northwest winds works into the area, reducing the downslope warming.
Northern California remains under dry southwest flow aloft between an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast and strong high pressure over the central US. With less of a marine influence this morning, temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The slight warming trend will translate into this afternoon's temperatures, with highs expected to reach the lower 90s across the Valley, and 70s and 80s across the mountains. These forecast highs are slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. The upper low ejects north and east later this week, with high pressure building into Northern CA from the south.
720 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Weak cold front drops over the area this morning, stalling over North Carolina today. The front dissipates tonight as high pressure builds over the region. High pressure prevails through the weekend. Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front just to the north and west of the local area with high pressure over the Great Lakes.
928 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will build in from the west before settling offshore to the south of New England today. The high will then hold to the south of New England on Thursday. A warm front will approach from the southwest Thursday night, with warm and humid conditions settling in for the weekend.
1147 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the region resulting in another day of hot temperatures.
1248 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will build in from the west before settling offshore to the south of New England today. The high will then hold to the south of New England on Thursday. A warm front will approach from the southwest Thursday night, with warm and humid conditions settling in for the weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 98 74 97 74 / 20 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 71 93 72 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 94 71 94 72 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 64 93 66 / 10 10 10 10.
629 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Impressive anticyclonic motion is evident on this mornings water vapor loop as upper-level ridging holds strong across the central CONUS.
Over the east half, south winds will keep areas downwind of Lake Michigan cooler but mainly still in the 80s. Nam shows a 500 mb ridge across the central U. with a trough on both coasts and the upper Great Lakes in the ring of fire with the westerlies just to the north of the area. Cold front moves through on Thu night and then dries out Thu night into Fri and continued dry for Fri into Fri night. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb ridge over the southern U. 12z Sat with a broad trough in the pacific nw and northern Rockies. Starts to dry out Mon with cooler and drier air moving in and have Mon night and Tue dry for now.
With an upper level ridge due west of TN, centered over OK/NE, NW flow aloft is prevailing over Middle TN. Will maintain a 20-30 PoP over the mid-state for today as ridge axis remains west of the state. Temperatures will climb into the middle 90s for many and heat index values in the low triple digits, especially west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Temps have largely remained above freezing today as well, which has greatly limited any impacts of icing. The only exception is along the Coteau ridge where temps are hovering around 31 or 32 degrees. Although, feel the biggest impacts from any drizzle or freezing drizzle remain in and around the Coteau region. Will have to monitor fog overnight, especially over the east within the trough axis where winds will be lightest and moisture pooling with be the greatest.
At the surface, low pressure is centered over south central Kansas, heading east. Gusty northwest winds should slowly taper off this evening as the pressure gradients relax behind the departing low pressure. Due to this high, clear skies and no precipitation should be expected. North winds should go light and variable tomorrow morning as the high passes. Behind the high, south winds will develop as a weak lee trough develops along the front range. A compact short wave trough will sweep across the area Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning.
302 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Upper closed low associated with trough through northern plains. Gulf of Alaska low and ridge over western CONUS and ridge over eastern Conus with strong closed low over the northeast Conus. This will keep overnight lows warm /lower 30s/ across our eastern zones, but across the west where the increasing subsidence and clearing is anticipated, lows in the lower to mid 20s are forecast. The high temperature forecast for Wednesday is a product of near term numerical guidance with a BC blend.
tonight Through Wednesday High pressure will build in from the west over western and central Wyoming tonight with clearing to partial clearing. The high pressure will shift east through Wednesday as another Pacific low pressure trough brings snow into the western mountains in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday The snow will continue in the west in the evening with a cold front moving south from Montana spreading areas of light snow from north to south east of the Continental divide with snowfall of an inch or two possible. The south will see brisk winds gusting to 35 to 40 mph ahead of the cold front, along the Interstate 80 corridor.
Warmest conditions will be over central SD, with cooler temps from 33 to 35 degrees over northeast SD and west central MN. With temps hovering just above freezing there, expect most precip later today to be rain/drizzle with minimal impacts from icing. Some of the highest elevations in the Coteau may be a bit cooler and deal with some icy conditions today. As of 10Z, WAA pcpn is ongoing over the eastern portion of the CWA with obs reporting rain, freezing rain, and snow. An area of low pressure will move from Colorado, across Kansas, and into Missouri later today through Wednesday morning. With warmer temperatures, snowfall amounts have been lowered.
Deep layer ridging will continue to slowly slide eastward across the region today, yielding a shift in light winds to the east- northeast later this morning.
High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s across the area, with lows dipping to near 30 degrees Wednesday morning. An inverted surface trof remains in the vicinity of northwest Wisconsin. A short wave trof also moves through the forecast area. These features combine to warrant highest pops in the vicinity of the surface trof Wednesday evening, trending downward overnight as the best forcing from the upper trof moves east of the area.