Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 253 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019/ Current satellite shows a trough over the ArkLaTex region translating southeastward with large scale upper ridging over the southern Four Corners. With surface ridging building to our east in the wake of the upper wave mentioned above, this should result in southwesterly winds at the surface across the Panhandles. Ferguson Upper level trough approaching the northwest coast of the U.
516 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 High pressure will move east of the state bringing milder temperatures for Friday. A dry cold front will push through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder temperatures for the weekend. Split upper trof pattern over the ERN CONUS with high clouds streaming over the southern half of central PA late this evening from southern stream trof axis extending from srn IL/IN to the Arklatex. Despite the high clouds, fair weather will persist overnight as high pressure noses in from the west.
and Saturday High pressure will move from Lake Winnipeg towards the Eastern Great Lakes by tomorrow night. CLouds will increase further on Saturday as a low pressure system approaches from the northwest. Highs should reach freezing or even a few degrees higher in the afternoon despite the cloud cover.
A mid-level trough over the Ozarks will continue to shift east into the Mid-Mississippi/Tennessee Valley today, phasing with a secondary area of low pressure along the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly flow will help to reinforce the cool, dry, post-frontal air mass on Saturday as highs will struggle to climb much above the low to mid 50s.
547 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Mostly sunny and milder weather will be on tap across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures reaching the lower 40s. Clear skies and nearly calm winds beneath a ridge of high pressure have led to patchy fog development early this morning. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 40s. A weak cold front currently extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan into the Dakotas will sink southward into north-central Illinois later today and tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 20s. Thanks to increased cloud cover and light easterly flow, highs on Saturday will be a couple of degrees cooler than today in the upper 30s to around 40.
Expect rain to continue to move off to the east as the low continues to pull away off-shore. Water vapor imagery depicts a digging mid/upper level trough across the Tennessee valley with a plume of mid/upper level moisture from the northern GoM northward into the mid-Atlantic region. The mid/upper level trough will continue to dig across the southeast inducing surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 50s area wide with lows Friday night in the mid 20s to low 30s which is still below normal. By Saturday morning a closed upper low will be located off the southeast U.
As the trough interacts with the Gulf Stream baroclinic zone, cyclogenesis off the South Atlantic Coast will tighten the pressure gradient resulting in increased northerly surface winds in our region later today. The low level cold advection pattern will keep high temperatures well below normal for this time of the year with occasional gusty winds making for a rather uncomfortable mid November day. Expect clear skies and decoupling of the BL tonight to allow low temperatures to fall well below freezing.
As of 09Z Friday morning, the midlevel flow across the Plains was transitioning from northwest flow to zonal as a ridge axis traverses the Central and Northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad ridge axis extended from the Southern Plains through the mid-MS river valley. Southerly flow will be enhanced by a deepening lee trough across the High Plains as a midlevel trough encroaches the Northern Rockies. Temperatures should be warmer tonight as a strengthening surface pressure gradient will allow for the boundary layer to remain coupled -- overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 20s in far eastern KS to the mid 30s in north central KS.
This will allow for southerly flow to return along with much warmer temperatures. Highs will climb back into the 60's today with even warmer conditions for Saturday.
520 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 The flow aloft will be in transition over the next few days as the upper trof across the lower MS Valley departs slowly eastward and a northern stream upper trof swings from the Hudson Bay vicinity eastward. This flow regime will maintain high pressure across the region through the period to varying degrees.
A cold front will bring a pretty wide swath of rain to the region this morning. After this trough moves through the Pacific Northwest, we'll see high pressure build during the weekend.
330 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Mostly sunny and milder weather will be on tap across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures reaching the lower 40s. Clear skies and nearly calm winds beneath a ridge of high pressure have led to patchy fog development early this morning. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 40s. A weak cold front currently extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan into the Dakotas will sink southward into north-central Illinois later today and tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 20s. Thanks to increased cloud cover and light easterly flow, highs on Saturday will be a couple of degrees cooler than today in the upper 30s to around 40.
247 AM PST Fri Nov 15 2019 Today will be cooler with areas of coastal low clouds and fog this morning and some mid and high clouds as well for today. Warmer with weak offshore flow for the weekend.
245 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 A quiet, transitional day is in store for eastern Utah and western Colorado today as the ridge axis continues to shift east through the morning. Even with the increased clouds daytime highs will once again run well above seasonal normals - close to 10 degrees warmer than normal in some areas - as 700mb temperatures range from 4 to 8 degrees C. The increased cloud cover will have the opposite impact on overnight lows tonight by minimizing the effects of radiational cooling, allowing for values to trend a few degrees warmer. Saturday will see a midlevel trough and associated cold front drop south across the Northern Rockies.
243 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with upper trof just offshore the Pacific NW. Weak surface trof is pushing into the western Dakotas. Next upper wave currently just offshore the Pac NW coast will knock down the ridge late tonight and Saturday as it crosses the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Some light rain, possibly mixed with light snow from northeast WY into the Black Hills, will be possible very late tonight and Saturday behind the cold front.
A dry cold front will push through the region Saturday bringing a cooling trend for the weekend.
Any isolated showers/thunderstorms will end by this evening as upper level ridging begins to shift eastward into the region. Upper level ridging continues to build into the region on Saturday, and this should preclude any thunderstorm activity during the day. Associated with the ridging, it will be a warmer day as 850 mb temperatures climb to the upper teens to lower 20s C from east to west across the area. If this would occur it appears that the focus would be through the Highway 14 corridor closer to the nose of a strengthening low level jet oriented through central/eastern SD.
Isolated convection in the far eastern CWA persists with high pressure both aloft and at the surface stacked to the northeast which is actually bringing in some slightly drier air. Temperatures back to average today with that high and cooler temperatures aloft, but with the excess rain the last few days, and rapidly growing corn, would expect ET to be rather high today, meaning slightly unstable profiles for the James and east. Farther west, with less ET, and slightly warmer temperatures aloft means capped conditions. Tonight, we see that high pressure migrate east southeast with return flow for western South Dakota. Convection riding the upper level ridge and LLJ in North Dakota could clip locations on the ND/SD border.
The upper-level ridge over us strengthens today which will continue to further dry out the CWA. A weak disturbance moving through the ridge axis should help to initiate high-based thunderstorms off the high terrain. A brief break from thunderstorms is expected on Saturday as the ridge strengthens over the CWA. 700 mb temperatures soar into the low 20Cs.
We'll see an upper level approach the region from the west with relative humidities remaining elevated within the lower sections of the atmosphere. The high resolution ensemble forecast system is predicting a 10 to 20 percent chance of lightning around the aforementioned areas.
600 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Yet another day of heat is in store for west central Texas as a strong upper-level ridge will settle in across the Four Corners region. As the ridge height climbs to near 600dam, 850mb temperatures will be about 25-27 deg C. By this evening, a weak cold front, helped along by northwest flow aloft over the central Plains, will drop into north Texas.
Today and Tonight: Another hot day is expected across the region as a mid-level ridge of high pressure keeps a lid on the boiling pot of southern humidity. Beneath the core of the ridge, dew points might mix out a little better than the latest NBM guidance indicates. South and east from the core of the ridge, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected again today. /NF/ Saturday through next Friday: A persistent, deep-layer ridge will continue to create dangerous heat stress conditions across the Southern region through Saturday. In the lower levels, a moist (PWATS ~2.
The axis of the strong mid level ridge remains north of ECFL with a very weak col beginning to develop along the SE seaboard by tonight. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s along the coast, and mid 90s across the interior.
- Beautiful Weekend Ahead - Rain is quickly shunted to the south late tonight into Saturday as high pressure centered over northern Lake Superior spreads south. This high pressure will hold strong through the entire weekend allowing for nearly pristine weekend weather. High temperatures will likely stay limited to the upper 70s to low 80s thanks to a thermal trough with an 850mb temps hovering in the 11-14C range.
Otherwise, abundant cloud cover across much of northern lower should gradually diminish from north to south this afternoon as high pressure begins to encroach on northern Michigan from the north. Weakly cyclonic upper-level flow will be in place to start the period, with an associated weak cold front sinking south across northern Lower Michigan this morning. The upper-level flow trends more neutral later today into tonight, as high pressure starts building in at the surface. The air coming in behind the front is only slightly cooler that what precedes it. Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees cooler than the previous 24 hours, with today's highs mainly in the mid 70s and tonight's lows around 50.
For tonight, the upslope flow pattern will prevail across the High Plains in the wake of the boundary. Have the highest pops for Elkhart and along and west of Highway 83. On Saturday, a 500-hPa ridge starts to amplify across the Central Rockies.
458 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 09Z upper level analysis has ridging over the Four Corners region extending north into the Northern Plains. Weak troffing is present downstream of the ridge axis across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, weak high pressure is in place across the area. Lacking a strong kicker, convection will have to initiate off the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills to get going. Upper ridge axis crosses into the Northern Plains on Saturday, with hot and mainly dry conditions expected. As a cool front slides through the Northern Plains late in the day and overnight, winds will become more northerly as slightly cooler air moves in.
543 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Rain chances increase again this afternoon into early Saturday with a crossing cold front. Quiet and dry weather continues early this morning as lingering high pressure slips east and washes out. Precipitation should quickly exit much of the region Saturday morning, with lingering afternoon showers/storms confined mostly to the WV/PA ridges. Afterwards, high pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend.
/issued 339 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022/ Upper level dome of high pressure will begin a gradual migration to the WNW and expand northward into the northern Rockies over the next twenty four hours. 25" at times later today, heavy rain chances will be limited due to the high-based nature of any storms that do develop. A weak upper level trough axis extending westward from the Central Plains may provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist after sunset over the northern Rolling Plains, but expect convection to wind down area wide after midnight. Saturday opens with light northerly winds in the wake of a weak cold front and outflow boundary slowing over the Permian Basin.
327 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 09Z upper level analysis has ridging over the Four Corners region extending north into the Northern Plains. Weak troffing is present downstream of the ridge axis across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, weak high pressure is in place across the area. Lacking a strong kicker, convection will have to initiate off the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills to get going. Upper ridge axis crosses into the Northern Plains on Saturday, with hot and mainly dry conditions expected. As a cool front slides through the Northern Plains late in the day and overnight, winds will become more northerly as slightly cooler air moves in.
Final day for heat headlines as cooler and less humid air spreads into the region for the weekend.
Early morning temperatures were in the lower to mid 70s. Today: Upper level trough and associated forcing will continue to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon. High pressure will begin to build into the area from the Great Lakes. Lows should bottom out in the lower to mid 60s.
With a lower tier east-west oriented ridge in a semi blocking position and a trough off the west coast, we will continue to see the resulting westerly component to our flow limit thunderstorm chances today. By Saturday afternoon, the building ridge should see a high center consolidating near northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. While moisture will still be below average, the resulting easterly flow will favor strong organized outflow off the higher eastern terrain toward lower deserts.
Overall, this period will be tranquil as energy tops the upstream ridge and moves into the Midwest.
A composite outflow/cold front is expected to reach the northern Permian Basin and be the focus for any convection late this evening. The stalled cold front is expected to begin retreating north as a warm front early in the afternoon. A combination of post- frontal upslope flow and convergence along the warm front is expected to be the focus for thunderstorm development early. As convective outflow begins to develop, this will push the front back south as a cold front once again later that afternoon. Temperatures continue to be hot with temperatures only a degree or two cooler than Friday, despite the cold front.
723 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 The well-advertised cold front moved across Upper Michigan yesterday aftn/evening bringing isolated showers, mainly to south-central portions of our CWA. Ambient temperatures are a few degrees warmer than dew points and continued cold/dry air advection prevents any fog formation for the first night in recent memory. This ridge is expected to build southeast over Lake Superior today and NAEFS guidance indicates precipitable water values falling to around 0. Away from the big lake, temperatures should have no trouble warming into the low to mid 70s with very comfortable humidity levels.
630 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Currently the cold front surface boundary is in far northwestern Oklahoma, with little movement so far these overnight hours. While things have remained dry across Oklahoma so far, some storms have developed in southern Kansas along the cold front, and an eye will be kept on far northern Oklahoma if the storm development extends into the area. The cold front will surge southward through Oklahoma today, which will limit the heat in areas behind the front and keep temperatures closer to average. Friday afternoon, scattered showers and storms are possible along and ahead of the cold front with increasing instability due to daytime heating.
Cooler and drier weather is on tap for the weekend with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lower humidity. The unsettled weather pattern comes to an end by this weekend as a high pressure works into the Great Lakes Region and sends the frontal boundary well south of here.
Through the weekend, not a whole lot of change from day to day as a trough near the west coast weakens.
A weak cold front will bring only isolated rain showers this afternoon.
838 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Rain chances increase again this afternoon into early Saturday with a crossing cold front. Quiet and dry weather continues early this morning as lingering high pressure slips east and washes out. Precipitation should quickly exit much of the region Saturday morning, with lingering afternoon showers/storms confined mostly to the WV/PA ridges. Afterwards, high pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend.
259 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022 High pressure will be strengthening over the Southwest into the weekend. This will mean progressively warmer weather, especially inland, where afternoon sea breezes will not be as effective with cooling. A shallow marine layer and onshore flow each day will keep coastal areas cooler, but night and morning low clouds and patchy fog will be more limited.
1110 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (08/18Z TAF period) VFR conditions are predominately expected prior to 21z today; thereafter showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain and then lifting northeast to east over the plains/valleys of Southwest through North Central Montana could bring near- MVFR/MVFR conditions to all terminals through 00-06z Saturday. The KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, and KHLN terminals have the highest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms.
Overall confidence in shower/thunderstorm activity for this afternoon/evening is pretty low at this time, although there is a chance of a few isolated t-storms further west toward the High Plains.
The weekend will be drier and cooler, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
1208 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times today into tonight as a low pressure system moves east across the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the region through the weekend. High pressure skirts by to the north Saturday night bringing mostly clear skies to the Ohio Valley.
Rain showers have been slow moving, as surface flow around low pressure centered over eastern Missouri has remained rather weak. Look for skies to gradually clear heading through tonight as high pressure builds south into the Midwest from the Great Lakes. Plentiful sunshine will be seen Saturday with seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s, with more comfortable dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s.
222 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge axis into eastern MT/WY. Saturday, upper/thermal ridge peak as low pressure along lee trough moves into eastern MT.
Some showers offshore are expected in the morning, likely affecting parts of the Nature Coast, then the highest rain chances will generally shift inland through the day behind southwest flow.
1232 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Rain chance increases again this afternoon into early Saturday with a crossing cold front. Precipitation should quickly exit much of the region Saturday morning, with lingering afternoon showers/storms confined mostly to the WV/PA ridges. Afterwards, high pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend.
Otherwise, the upper ridge pattern which had been in place over much of the region this week is beginning to shift a bit to the west. Still, current temp trends have managed to climb into the lower/mid 90s, with heat indices near/just above 105F in some spots. Temps then look to fall into mainly the lower/mid 70s by early Sat morning.
(This evening through Saturday) A strong and persistent upper level ridge remains parked over the Four Corners region, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast through Saturday. Expect overnight lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s, and some localized areas in the low 80s.
A weak upper trough is giving Western Washington clouds and a few light showers this morning.
237 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Can only find the odd cloud across eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon with some CU buildup over the higher terrain heading towards the Continental Divide. Hardly any vertical growth/buildup noted on local webcams due to subsidence from the area of high pressure moving in. So far, they're running about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday and with plenty of heating left in the day, wouldn't be surprised to see a few more degrees added to that total. Tomorrow, more of the same as high pressure continues to influence the weather. An upper level trough will be approaching from the west and will eventually ride up and over the ridge and will cause an uptick in moisture but more on that below.
Saturday, the upper level trough finally begins to move eastward, moving the threat of severe thunderstorms more toward North Dakota.
1256 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 The well-advertised cold front moved across Upper Michigan yesterday aftn/evening bringing isolated showers, mainly to south-central portions of our CWA. Ambient temperatures are a few degrees warmer than dew points and continued cold/dry air advection prevents any fog formation for the first night in recent memory. This ridge is expected to build southeast over Lake Superior today and NAEFS guidance indicates precipitable water values falling to around 0. Away from the big lake, temperatures should have no trouble warming into the low to mid 70s with very comfortable humidity levels.
By this evening a weak cold front will move through.
Upper level high pressure centered over the eastern half of the 4-corners region is already expanding eastward and slightly northward as is evident on water vapor imagery and in line with models progs. Temperatures might be a touch less hot as deep northeast to east flow develops across the forecast area on the south side of the upper ridge.
A low-level thermal ridge will stretch across the southwest with the low-level jet extending into south central North Dakota. Therefore, high temperatures are forecast to increase into the mid 90s with dew points touching the low 70s across much south central North Dakota. However, if convection lingers through the late morning thunderstorm anvils could prevent optimal diurnal heating resulting in slightly cooler high temperatures.
However, another round or two of showers and storms are expected tonight and tomorrow, as an area of low pressure and surface cold front move through the region.