Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry weather and cooler temperatures will continue for southeast Georgia and northeast Florida throughout the rest of the day and overnight as high pressure and dry air extends over the region from out of the northwest.
134 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A cold front passage on Saturday will bring a slight chance of a few light rain showers. A cold front and its supporting mid/upper-level trough will approach the forecast area during the latter half of Saturday.
Much warmer than average temps returning. High level clouds were moving through the area ahead of a upper level trough and surface cold front to the northwest. Temperatures by morning will drop into the lower 50s.
A weakening cold front will push southeast as well and should push into our area Saturday afternoon.
Upper level troughing will dig across the Midwest throughout the period causing northwesterly flow to persist across the local area. At the surface a high pressure remains anchored over much of the Southeast. We'll still see a rather large diurnal temperature range as lows remain on the cooler side due to radiational cooling. Much of the area will see lows generally in the lower to mid 50s. By Saturday afternoon, expecting some moderation to temperatures due to influences of the warmer Gulf waters and daytime mixing so highs will warm slightly into the lower to mid 80s.
This will not be the case over portions of southeastern ND, where clear skies and lighter winds close to the center of the high will allow readings to drop to the mid 30s. Dew points are very dry everywhere and the potential is there for frost along the higher terrain of eastern ND all the way to the Canadian border. Temperatures should rebound quickly Saturday under sunshine and rising heights as the ridge starts to develop to our west. Increasing dew points and the southwest surface wind, along with cloud cover, will keep temps Saturday night much warmer with no frost threat expected. Cluster analysis lends to high confidence in strong 500 mb ridging dominating the central portion of the CONUS for the first half of the period.
Meanwhile a cutoff upper level low will take shape across the desert southwest (AZ area). At the surface, high pressure will be centered across eastern NE early Saturday morning. This high will shift southeast into MO during the day Saturday, with return southerly flow developing on the backside across the Central and Western High Plains.
305 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Comfortable and dry conditions remain in place this afternoon as high pressure lingers across the area. Southwesterly winds have increased slightly today ahead of an advancing cold front that remains well to the north, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph this afternoon. This has also contributed to slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday, and maximums will likely reach near 80 degrees in most places as a result. Overnight tonight, the aforementioned cold front will sweep through the region, bringing with it a brief round of scattered showers. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the northwest and weaken overnight.
128 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 High pressure over the region has lead to clear skies today.
Further southeast across the FL Big Bend a greater easterly component to the surface flow will allow the slow advection of limited low-level moisture into the forecast area from the Atlantic and keep lows in the lower 60s. No rain is expected across the majority of the forecast area through Saturday but a weak trough, associated with that easterly flow from the Atlantic, will potentially lead to a few isolated showers across our marine zones and coastal communities by the Apalachee Bay.
While the center of high pressure should be well to our south by Saturday morning, the northern axis of high pressure will extend north into the northern Plains. High pressure allowing for efficient nocturnal cooling, in addition to light winds and a very dry airmass in place, should result in low temperatures falling into the lower 30s in the coldest areas, which are expected to be in the southern James River Valley and points west along the Missouri River. Upper level ridging builds in through the day Saturday, with mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected.
230 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 High pressure will build from the TN valley to the mid-Atlantic states through Saturday.
207 PM MDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Cyclonic flow and associated light showers over our far east were pushed east today as a ridge of high pressure builds over our region from the west. This ridge will lead to warmer temperatures over the weekend. Despite the warm air mass, we do not anticipate any record highs as most records are still in the lower to mid 90s this time of year. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, which is a little warmer than normal, but still a nice cool reprieve after the warm afternoons.
130 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 High pressure will build from the TN valley to the mid-Atlantic states through Saturday.
High pressure just off to our south continues to slowly shift east, with sunny skies and light winds out of the southwest. Temperatures are maxing out in the low to mid 70s. An upper level trough and weak cold front approach from the northwest overnight.
(21Z Today through Saturday AM) A cold front is currently cutting through our CWA, stretching from south-central KS draping through the northwest tip of MO and into the western portion of the Midwest. However, this cold front is anticipated to be a mostly dry passage for the western side of MO and eastern KS. Despite the chance for light rain, an elevated fire weather concern is present this afternoon due to the low RH values, dry conditions, and gusting west winds. Skies are expected to clear out overnight as well, allowing temps to slip into the upper 40s for northern MO and KS, and into the lower 50s for the rest of the forecast area.
The upper level closed low currently over the southwest CONUS will slowly retrograde to the west-southwest today and tomorrow before tracking back to the east over the northern Baja by tomorrow evening. A sharpening trough over the Central Plains will push a surface cold front into the Texas Panhandle late tonight, but it should stall and become more diffuse around the I40 corridor.
/Updated at 0109 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021/ A weak trough will move through the Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow morning with a weak boundary moving across central AL early Saturday. though with high pressure building back into the area. expecting temperatures warmer than today.
/Tonight through Friday/ Key Points - Showers and gusty winds through the rest of the afternoon associated with cold front currently moving through. A cold front is sweeping across the state this afternoon bringing gusty northwest winds, some showers, and cooler temps. Forecast was trended toward a blend of MAV guidance and 25th percentile of the NBM to bring lows a few degrees cooler than previous forecast. Temperatures warm through the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the high Plains.
259 PM MDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Dry northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday as we remain wedged between a cutoff low offshore of Southern California, and a trough over the Great Lakes region. It's a quiet pattern that will keep us dry and mild to start the weekend, with highs that will warm into the 80's in the plains on Saturday, and 60's and 70's for the high country. The air mass will be a little drier Saturday per forecast soundings, and warmer/drier air will mix down to the surface to bring a reduction in humidity for the afternoon. A dominate ridge pattern will continue through Saturday night.
351 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A cold front will sweep southeast across Illinois tonight, likely bringing a brief period of showers and isolated thunderstorms with it. Saturday will be dry and cooler with a fair amount of sunshine and not quite as breezy as today.
314 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Sharp forcing with a front/upper trough is quickly pushing east across WI this afternoon. More cloud cover will keep highs over WI down more in the lower 60s.
226 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Northwest flow aloft will persist through the short term period as another trough swings east through the region overnight and into Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will overall remain in control of our weather as it slides a bit further to our east. Some mainly high clouds will accompany the passage of the trough overnight into early Saturday morning, but cool conditions will persist as lows fall into the low and middle 50s. Then on Saturday, with a few lingering high clouds overhead, highs will warm into the low and middle 80s under mostly sunny skies. /19/ Saturday night, a low level high pressure extends over the southeastern region.
Cold Front to bring a large change to fall-like weather by.
Rain chances will remain out of the short-term forecast thanks in part to mid-level ridging anchored across Texas. This ridge will drift east on Saturday as a mid-level low begins to cut-off over the North Baja of California and Northwest Mexico.
A weak cold front, currently stretching from the OK panhandle into eastern KS, will drop into the forecast area by Saturday. MOS/NBM guidance temps are a bit cooler than previously forecast for highs, although still expect readings to be several degrees above normal.
243 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the short term.
Upper level troughing will dig across the Midwest and Northeast CONUS throughout the period, leaving northwesterly flow to persist across the area. At the surface a high pressure remains anchored over much of the Southeast. We'll still see a rather large diurnal temperature range as lows remain on the cooler side due to radiational cooling. Much of the area will see lows generally in the lower to mid 50s. By Saturday afternoon, expecting some moderation to temperatures due to influences of the warmer Gulf waters and daytime mixing so highs will warm slightly into the lower to mid 80s.
This boundary is nearly stationary with a cold front extending northeast across central Kansas. The NAM is at the low end and winds are prog'd to be more east/southeast by tomorrow afternoon. Southern zones will rise into the low 90s.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) |An upper trough is over the Northern Plains and Midwest with an upper low over Southern California. Temperatures today are expected to get slightly warmer than yesterday with highs ranging from the 70s in the mountains to the 90s along the Rio Grande and along the Pecos River. The upper trough to the north moves eastward on Saturday with an upper low just off the coast of California. Upper ridging will begin to develop over Texas on Saturday. Temperatures will likely be a couple degrees cooler across the area on Saturday with no rain or storms expected.
High pressure remains in control with passing high clouds today/tonight and VFR conditions through the period. H500 trough extending south beneath its parent Low north of the US/CA border will transition from the Northern Plains today and across the Great Lakes saturday. Sfc ridging will shift to the southeast and mid level ridging, SW of the area, will build northeast toward the state.
Tonight and Saturday, the upper flow will back to the west as flat ridging occurs over the northern Rockies. Dry and warmer temperatures will occur Saturday.
At the surface, cold front extends from extreme southeast Nebraska to between KHUT and KICT. Temps on Sat will be fairly close to seasonal values as they top out in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure at the surface and west northwest flow aloft over the region, will continue to provide pleasant conditions for the forecast area today. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Continued dry through the period with slightly warmer temperatures. This high will shift east today and tonight resulting in a light east wind today and east southeast tonight.
/19/ High pressure at the surface and west northwest flow aloft over the region, will continue to provide pleasant conditions for the forecast area today. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Continued dry through the period with slightly warmer temperatures. This high will shift east today and tonight resulting in a light east wind today and east southeast tonight.
High pressure is currently centered over the Cumberland Plateau. High pressure will remain east of the region tonight which will mean more dry weather for the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain on the cool side tonight with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 50s. On Saturday, a weak cold front will move into the Mid-South from the north reaching near the Tennessee/Mississippi border by early evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
238 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 The Florida Keys are south of a diffuse cold front stretching across Central Florida. Radar derived totals indicate nearly an inch of rainfall for northern portions of the Lower Keys. Upstream from the long wave trough, a sharp long wave ridge will form over the Mississippi River Valley and the Great Lakes.
Upper low northeast of Lake Superior with sharp ridging across the Upper Midwest. Sharp trough over the Plains of Canada and the U. At the surface, cold front extends from Western Lake Superior across Wisconsin and into Iowa. Cold front moves through the area overnight, clearing the Lake Huron shoreline by around 12z. A Cooler and a Bit Unsettled Weekend. The surface cold front will exit the region taking the band of showers along with it early Saturday. In addition, a short wave or two moves through the trough aloft through Saturday night.
Hires models signal an increasing probability of light, late-day rain showers reaching the western Alleghenies in advance of a fast-moving cold front. MaxTs should trend +2-5F warmer than Friday with pleasant and comfortable conditions start the first full weekend of fall.
333 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A strong upper trough is currently diving southeast through the Upper Midwest. The better upper dynamics are staying northeast of the forecast area, but the trough is driving a weak cold front through northeast Kansas. A few spots near the Nebraska border may be slightly cooler, as skies will clear earlier there. Skies remain clear as high pressure continues moving east.
In the upper levels, zonal flow will continue through tomorrow with an upper level ridge beginning to move into the area tomorrow night. At the surface, the high pressure will continue gradually shifting eastward allowing for a gradual increase in moisture across South Texas. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night are expected to range from the lower to upper 60s inland with locations closer to the coast climbing into the lower 70s.
(This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, an upper level low was over Southern CA/Northern Baja Mexico, with weak upper level ridging over West Central Texas. Some slight warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge today is likely to bring a couple degrees of warming, with highs this afternoon in the 85-90 degree range. Forecast lows will again be in the low to mid 50s south of the Big Country, and upper 50s in the Big Country. Saturday, south to southeast low level and surface flow will continue due to a ridge to our east.
344 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A dry and pleasant fall weekend is in store, with high pressure giving plenty of sunshine.
251 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 It has been warm and breezy this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is now into central Iowa. GOES IR showed scattered convective development over south-central into eastern Iowa in a zone of elevated WAA ahead of a mid-level trough and surface cold front. Much lighter winds are expected later tonight as the front shifts well to the east and high pressure builds in. The dry post-frontal air mass will allow temps to cool off significantly, falling into the low to mid 40s.
247 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Cold front is currently sitting in South Florida giving much of the area some slightly drier and cool air. So no surprise the highest rainshower chances will be in southwest Florida with scattered showers and storms expected.
At that point an upper level diffluent flow over SE AZ and an impulse rotating up on the eastern flank of the low should bring an interesting environment for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
1258 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A cold front passage on Saturday will bring a slight chance of a few light rain showers. A cold front and its supporting mid/upper-level trough will approach the forecast area during the latter half of Saturday.
Elsewhere, readings should be mainly around 40 or the lower 40s. with a prominent warm-advection pattern developing in the low levels.
Onshore flow continues overnight, keeping in place the higher moisture (1. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s over much the area, with upper 60s possible northwest of I-4 and mid 70s along the coast south of Cape Canaveral.
831 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A cold front passage on Saturday will bring a slight chance of a few light rain showers. Temps will fall into the 40s for overnight lows as high pressure continues to suppress rain chance and clouds. A cold front and its supporting mid/upper-level trough will approach the forecast area during the latter half of Saturday.
612 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, an upper level low was over Southern CA/Northern Baja Mexico, with weak upper level ridging over West Central Texas. Some slight warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge today is likely to bring a couple degrees of warming, with highs this afternoon in the 85-90 degree range. Forecast lows will again be in the low to mid 50s south of the Big Country, and upper 50s in the Big Country. Saturday, south to southeast low level and surface flow will continue due to a ridge to our east.
It has been warm and breezy this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is now into central Iowa. GOES IR showed scattered convective development over south-central into eastern Iowa in a zone of elevated WAA ahead of a mid-level trough and surface cold front. Much lighter winds are expected later tonight as the front shifts well to the east and high pressure builds in. The dry post-frontal air mass will allow temps to cool off significantly, falling into the low to mid 40s.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Another quiet night is in store for North and Central Texas, though it'll be slightly warmer than previous nights. Late tonight and early tomorrow morning, a weak cold front will make a southward push into southern Oklahoma.
Previous taf discussion mentioned the possibility of patchy fog in the early morning near AEX, but with current guidance being little warmer than the previous run, VIS will be kept at VFR for now.
Northwest flow aloft will persist through the short term period as another trough swings east through the region overnight and into Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will overall remain in control of our weather as it slides a bit further to our east. Some mainly high clouds will accompany the passage of the trough overnight into early Saturday morning, but cool conditions will persist as lows fall into the low and middle 50s. Then on Saturday, with a few lingering high clouds overhead, highs will warm into the low and middle 80s under mostly sunny skies. /19/ Saturday night, a low level high pressure extends over the southeastern region.
At the surface, cold front extends from extreme southeast Nebraska to between KHUT and KICT. Temps on Sat will be fairly close to seasonal values as they top out in the low to mid 80s. A strong cold front continues to push south across the forecast area at this time, currently located from just north of Iola to Enid. Could even see some virga from some of the mid level clouds, but very dry air in the low layers will keep most of this moisture from reaching the ground.
High pressure over the region has lead to clear skies today.
730 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 High pressure will prevail to the northwest Tonight, with remaining cumulus dissipating this evening with loss of diurnal heating.
A few storms are expected over the southern high terrain through this evening and tomorrow, before a low pressure system approaches. The 1st upper low from yesterday is almost indiscernible in the latest water vapor satellite imagery over south central NM, but the second and more notable upper low is still gathering along the northern Baja coast. This upper low won't make much eastward progress over the next 36hrs. At the surface, a backdoor cold front is making slow progress across the northeast plains and will continue southwest overnight, resulting in brief gusty east canyon/gap winds into the Rio Grande Valley through early Saturday morning.
A strong upper trough is currently diving southeast through the Upper Midwest. The better upper dynamics are staying northeast of the forecast area, but the trough is driving a weak cold front through northeast Kansas. A few spots near the Nebraska border may be slightly cooler, as skies will clear earlier there. Skies remain clear as high pressure continues moving east.
Dry northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday as we remain wedged between a cutoff low offshore of Southern California, and a trough over the Great Lakes region. It's a quiet pattern that will keep us dry and mild to start the weekend, with highs that will warm into the 80's in the plains on Saturday, and 60's and 70's for the high country. The air mass will be a little drier Saturday per forecast soundings, and warmer/drier air will mix down to the surface to bring a reduction in humidity for the afternoon. A dominate ridge pattern will continue through Saturday night.
732 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will persist over the region through tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area from the northwest late Saturday, but with limited moisture.
500 PM MDT Fri Sep 24 2021 The 24/12Z H500 hand analysis chart showed merging low pressure systems over Upper Great Lakes region and upstream. high pressure dominating most of the Pacific Coast. creating a broad Rex pattern as high pressure is forced into the Intermountain West by the far upstream low digging into the E.
1042 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Currently - Nebulous surface pressure gradient across the Keys is due to troughing off the southeastern Atlantic coast and has resulted in locally variable winds. Near zonal flow has setup aloft as the amplified tail end of a midlatitude trough over the eastern United States has retreated some. This has also allowed the lower level ridge to become somewhat more established across the Keys. High pressure will remain over the southeastern United States and weak troughing off the Atlantic Coast. Weak troughing off the southeast Atlantic Coast will hold off the tighter pressure gradient around a high over the southeastern United States.
624 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A cold front will sweep southeast across Illinois tonight, likely bringing a brief period of showers and isolated thunderstorms with it. Saturday will be dry and cooler with a fair amount of sunshine and not quite as breezy as today.
Winds are expected to remain light and variable at all sites with a gradual shift from out of the south to out of the west and northwest over time as a dry cold front moves through the state.
High pressure will maintain dry and warm conditions through Saturday.
726 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 A cold front will sweep southeast across Illinois tonight, likely bringing a brief period of showers with it. Saturday will be dry and cooler with a fair amount of sunshine and not quite as breezy as today.
842 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Other than some high clouds spreading into the mid TN Valley from the west, high pressure remains in control of the overall wx pattern this Fri evening. Overnight lows look to fall into the lower 50s/near 50F for most spots, under partly cloudy skies.