Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
742 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Aviation/Marine - Storms moving out then clearing The cold front is moving across lower Michigan as I write this early this morning. The air behind this front has dew points about 10 degrees lower than what we had for the past 2 days and air temperature will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
635 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Cooler and less humid air will begin to spread across the area today behind a front.
612 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, an upper-level ridge was over the southeast US while an inverted trough was located over west Texas. The trough, which brought some scattered to broken cloud cover the past two days will move into the southwest US today, while the upper ridge will build back in across the southern Plains. This will result in much less cloud cover and a slightly warmer airmass today. By tonight, winds should diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes and the boundary layer decouples with high pressure moving in.
The cold front that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area last evening and overnight has washed out roughly along and east of the Mississippi River. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach the low/mid 90s along I-80 and the upper 90s south of highway 34. This Evening and Tonight: The washed out cold front and a reinvigorated LLJ may serve as the focus for redevelopment of scattered storms south of highway 34, especially after 9 PM, possibly not until after midnight.
It doesn't appear to have overturned the atmosphere much across our area, so the forecast remains for another round of afternoon convection to develop as an upper-level disturbance continues to move west beneath the ridge. The upper-level ridge will be centered along the Interstate 40 corridor through the day, so continued hot temperatures are likely, especially as most of the region continues to bake under mostly sunny skies.
High Pressure will keep hot and dry conditions on tap for the Natural State. Today Through Friday Night A ridge of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will wobble into Arkansas today and Friday. Under the ridge, summer heat will continue. On Friday, a weak cold front will approach from the north, and isolated thunderstorms could pop up ahead of the front.
Despite this, could still see some spotty shower activity through the morning and afternoon hours as the low pressure system and and attendant cold front travel through the region. A low pressure system over southern Manitoba will continue to translate eastward throughout the day today. Due to proximity of the low, a few spotty showers with some embedded thunder will also remain possible, primarily across northwestern Minnesota through the morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, upper level ridging will begin to build into the Plains on Friday.
710 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 High pressure slides east of New England today. A cold front crosses New England Friday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight. Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return this weekend as a trough deepens across New England. Mid and upper level ridging will remain in place today, keeping most of the forecast area dry. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over Upstate NY today as a short wave trough and associated cold front moves in from the the west. A period of strong heating appears possible Friday prior to cold frontal passage after any early morning showers or storms move east of the forecast area. Scattered showers will continue Friday night as an upper level trough crosses the forecast area.
- Storms moving out then clearing The cold front is moving across lower Michigan as I write this early this morning. The air behind this front has dew points about 10 degrees lower than what we had for the past 2 days and air temperature will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
A chance of showers will return today as an upper low approaches from the west. Friday will be wetter as the low moves inland.
551 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley will migrate westward today allowing for a degree or two increase in daytime temperatures.
Gusts of 35 to 40 MPH are expected, with the higher gusts toward northern portions of the area. A deepening 500 mb low over eastern Canada and into the northeastern USA will allow high pressure to gradually move southeast toward the region. The influence of the high should bring cooler temperatures into the area during this time, with winds shifting onshore later on Friday.
341 AM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A strong cold front will move across the region with a much cooler air mass moving over Central California on Friday, with daytime highs lowering to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
With ample dry air and subsidence from high pressure aloft, have maintained lower shower and storm chances (around 20%) across the interior, with no mentionable PoPs for the coast. Forecast peak heat indices in the 101-105 range this afternoon, with temperatures soaring into the lower 90s along the coast and mid to upper 90s inland. Winds becoming onshore (E/ENE) around 10-15kts this afternoon, as the sea breeze develops and high pressure builds into the local waters.
104 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Looking at the upper level pattern across the CONUS, Upper ridging is beginning to build and amplify across the Rockies along with an upper ridge retrograding across the southern US. The upper trough that was discussed in previous discussions is departing to the north and east across Canada. Friday will begin a long period of hot and dry conditions for the region as a potent upper ridge parks itself over the central plains.
Another showery weekend is expected with cooler temps.
(This evening through Friday) The calm weather and hot temperatures continue again today into tomorrow, as the upper level ridge continues to shift westward and settles over the region.
Dry and warm conditions today under influence of the departing ridge.
223 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 As low pressure builds over south-central MT tonight, pressure gradient in the east strengthens, with a prominent 850 mb low- level jet containing winds up to 45 kts.
Satellite imagery shows that high pressure ridging has moved east of our area due to an approaching upper level low off the OR/WA coast. Winds have turned southerly and are currently breezy around 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph, especially for downslope areas (like the eastern bench of the Snake Plain) and ridgetops. The upper level low moves inland over Oregon tomorrow.
Predominantly zonal conditions prevail across the state today with Iowa sandwiched between the Canadian low to the north and high pressure to the south. As the low to the north tracks east, it will pull along a surface boundary that will be the source of shower and storm development in far southern Iowa tonight. Capping in the lower levels, along with weak southwesterly winds should keep the tornado threat to a minimum in Iowa. Following the storms in southern Iowa tonight, the ridging to our west will take over the forecast for tomorrow.
(Thru Tonight) A few sites are touching 105 degree heat index this afternoon with low to mid 70s dewpoints and temps in the low 90s. Thus, lows are expected to dip a bit cooler than previous nights into the low to mid 70s and provide some relief from the heat, a small victory but still better than mid 70s to near 80.
418 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this evening due to the passage of a cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are expected through the weekend. For the rest of the evening, despite jet support with weak trough passage, thunderstorms will remain scattered as forcing along the pre- frontal trough is limited. Dry air will filter in behind this trough and very likely will shut off any additional development, aided by residual warm air aloft. Dry, cooler air will filter into the region Friday in the wake of the cold frontal and upper trough passage.
A few scattered thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and but are not expected to impact any TAF sites. (This afternoon through Friday night) Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery from GOES-16 shows an inverted trough currently located across west Texas riding along the southwestern periphery of a broad subtropical high centered across southeast CONUS. This trough will provide enough lift to kick-off a few diurnally-driven thunderstorms, primarily across the higher terrain of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Persistent southeasterly return flow with breezy overnight winds will keep dewpoints in the 50s and 60s overnight and low temperatures in the low 70s both tonight and tomorrow night. By mid- day Friday, the upper ridge retrogrades westward and broadens across the Great Plains.
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 East-west axis of upper ridge extends from eastern Tennessee to Oklahoma this afternoon.
Breezy and cooler into Friday with below normal temperatures.
110 PM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A strong cold front will move across the region with a much cooler air mass moving over Central California on Friday, with daytime highs lowering to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
From synopsis, high pressure over Florida and the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes today and tonight. In 1906, a category one Hurricane moved slowly to the north- northeast crossing what is now the Seven Mile Bridge.
217 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 High pressure today has made for mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. The trend continues tonight with mostly clear skies and warmer overnight lows expected Friday morning. Winds will shift around to the east this evening and increase in speed as thermal trough pushes into central Montana.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Not much change in the overall thinking of the previous forecast with the center of the expansive 500mb ridge to retrograde over Central Plains Friday. The reposition of the mid-level ridge allows for the winds to back slightly in a more east-southeast direction which may provide better support for a sea breeze. However, rain chances are still expected to be slim to none with limited and thin layer of surface moisture, subsidence provided by the strong ridge and the Saharan dust plume lingering overhead (albeit waning according to the NASA/GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical thickness map).
352 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A warm front has moved north of Hays this afternoon so that any isolated storms this evening along this boundary should stay to the north. A t-storm or two could develop across the high plains near the Raton Mesa and venture into extreme southwest Kansas this evening. Upper level ridging and hot weather can be expected through 26 July and most likely through the end of June.
3) A backdoor cold front will bring some relief to our eastern CWA this weekend with cooler and less humid air, but eastern Kansas and western Missouri will remain largely unaffected. Heat: Heat Advisory remains in effect today until 8 PM as Heat Index values climb into the lower 100s. Conditions will remain warm and muggy overnight with temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat Indices will once again reach the low to mid 100s tomorrow afternoon.
139 PM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A large trough will impact the region later today into the weekend, increasing onshore flow. This will bring cooler weather, greater coverage in marine layer clouds each night and morning, along with windy conditions across the mountains and deserts.
1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Today: Mid/upper level trough axis rotating into MN early this morning with stronger flow rotating around its base. Have worked overnight lows to the cooler side of guidance or into the mid to upper 50s.
Upper level ridging will begin building into the area on Friday with southerly winds bringing increasing LLM moisture into the CWA. A pronounced upper ridge will be the dominant feature this weekend with the resultant excessive heat.
Slightly cooler, but very hot temperatures again on Friday. Discussion: Upper ridge begins to retrograde westward tonight with NW flow becoming predominant across the region. Lower heights and slightly cooler 850mb temperatures on Friday afternoon around 20C to 21C. It will still be very hot with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values between 100F and 105F across the southern valley.
A cold front will move south down Lake Michigan Friday afternoon, reaching northeast IL in the late afternoon, shifting winds to the northeast and these northeast winds may increase into the 15-20 mph range Friday night.
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, an upper-level ridge was over the southeast US while an inverted trough was located over west Texas. The trough, which brought some scattered to broken cloud cover the past two days will move into the southwest US today, while the upper ridge will build back in across the southern Plains. This will result in much less cloud cover and a slightly warmer airmass today. By tonight, winds should diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes and the boundary layer decouples with high pressure moving in.
The cooler air does not fully come in until tonight/Friday behind the secondary cold front, so some locations may still hit 90 this afternoon, mainly to the south and east of GRR. - Storms moving out then clearing The cold front is moving across lower Michigan as I write this early this morning. The air behind this front has dew points about 10 degrees lower than what we had for the past 2 days and air temperature will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
334 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Discussion/Marine --Quiet, Cooler, Comfortable Pattern-- Quiet weather pattern expected through much of the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds south into the GrtLks Rgn.
241 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 An upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South over the next 7 days.
210 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Currently an area of mid to upper level high pressure sits over the southeast CONUS, but is part of a much broader area of high pressure that is stretched west all the way over the Desert Southwest. The center of this high pressure is progged to retrograde to the west over the week as well as increasing the upper level ridge in amplitude all the way to the Northern Great Plains.
103 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley will migrate westward today allowing for a degree or two increase in daytime temperatures.
A warm front, the primary source of lift and focal point for thunderstorm development in the region, remains to the south of the forecast area in Kansas. While there will be the possible trigger for thunderstorm activity with the development of a low level jet after sunset, and surface dew points rise to the low 60s, confidence remains low. A pronounced upper level ridge forms over the Great Plains as high pressure builds to the south over Kansas and upper level lows form off the Pacific Coast and over Quebec. At the same time, the previously mentioned surface warm front begins to drift north and southerly warm air advection will flow in behind it. Highs in the southwest and Panhandle will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and in the low 90s in north central Nebraska.
Tonight and tomorrow: Stout upper ridging will amplify across the Central Plains as a deep trough digs across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will leave the Lower Mississippi Valley on the eastern flank of the upper ridge with weak flow shifting from easterly to out of the north. The remainder of the overnight will be mild with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Heading into tomorrow, a complex of thunderstorms is progged to be dropping down the eastern flank of the ridge with the greatest rain chances focused to our north across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. /TW/ By Friday night, broad anticyclonic motion propagating west from the influence of strong surface ridging will begin to break down over the ArkLaMiss region.
1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 At least one more day of dangerous heat and humidity depending on the location of a cold front that currently remains stalled across northern Missouri from MCI to just north of UIN as of 08z Thursday. Otherwise, the showers and storms that developed along and just ahead of cold front last night will continue to weaken and dissipate early this morning.
Synoptic analysis places a weak stationary front draped across the western and central atlantic, sandwiched between two sprawling areas of high pressure: one, formidable high centered over the Southeast, and a second, weaker high over the eastern Atlantic. Owed to the formidable high over the Southeast, an upper level low over the Great Lakes will be forced northward into southern Canada, then eventually dive southeastward off the Northeast coastline over the weekend in the lee of the high.
With the area of high pressure that had been in control across our region pushing east, we'll begin to see slightly higher moisture content begin to move into the area.
353 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A Wind Advisory west on Friday and warmer highs highlight the short term period. Upper level analysis depicts a stacked closed low approaching the Hudson Bay and a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This afternoon, breezy conditions continued due to the lingering pressure gradient from the east, whose influence will gradually wane into this evening as high pressure moves east and the boundary layer decouples. On Friday, the Pacific trough moves through the west coast while the upstream ridge builds over the Northern Plains. A lee surface cyclone replaces the previous high and deepens over Montana and Wyoming. Expect clear skies and warmer temperatures Friday as 850mb temperatures rise as well as surface humidity as dew points increase towards 60 F.
303 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Cooler and drier air will move into the area later tonight and continue into the weekend.
227 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Key Messages: - Mainly dry through the weekend - Hot to start the new work week Ensemble solutions appear to be in good agreement in the overall pattern through the forecast period, with upper level ridge building over the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley over the weekend and into the new work week.
329 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Cooler and drier air will move into the area later tonight and continue into the weekend.
402 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A strong stacked low pressure system drifting across Ontario today will impact the local weather into the coming weekend.
A late day cold front will bring showers and storms to the region. However, given successive hi-res cam runs of the HRRR and others, convection initiation may hold off until closer progression of the cold front later past 21Z likely. A limiting factor will be the very warm air aloft, since the storm development will ultimately be ahead of the cold front. Ultimately, more and more, its looking like total realization of the environment will be just ahead of/approach of the cold front. Dry, cooler air will filter into the region Friday in the wake of the cold frontal and upper trough passage.
228 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A ridge of high pressure at the surface will settle into the area tonight and bring one more cool morning before the heat moves in for the weekend. Highs generally in the lower to mid 80s, but closer to 90 near the Missouri River.
(This evening through Friday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low spinning near Wichita Falls. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge was centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. Lows will drop back down into the lower to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. The upper high will remain anchored to our north.
Temperatures overnight won't provide much relief from the hot and muggy conditions as lows fall into the lower to mid 70s inland with upper 70s along the coast. By Friday, the upper ridge retrogrades westward and becomes centered over the Central Plains as an upper trough digs across the Northeast.
1157 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Hot and humid conditions thanks to upper level ridging.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats given the elevated mixed layer in the low to mid level.
304 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 This afternoon/tonight: Near to above normal temperatures are occurring today as upper level ridging builds. Warm front to the south will slowly move north tonight. Training of cells is possible if the warm front moves slow enough, so local flooding is not out of the question. Also, if the cap should not hold for some reason, surface based convection could spin up a tornado along the warm front. 700 mb temperatures near the warm front are generally in the 14-15C range, so I am looking for this cap to hold into early evening. Elevated convection starts by late this evening and could last into the overnight north of the surface warm front along the 850 mb theta-e axis. This activity should remain west of the CWA as upper level ridging amplifies over the Plains.
Tonight, conditions will be quiet as winds calm and upper ridge begins to flatten and retrograde as a trough slides across the Great Lakes region. Thanks to the slightly drier airmass, dewpoints will fall to the low 70s tonight allowing low temperatures to follow suit.
Cooler and wetter weather will continue through most of the weekend. However, the probability of precipitation will increase again later tonight as an upper level low approaches.
Starting off the day pretty sunny again, but with the proximity of the low pressure system and cold temperatures aloft, cumulus have already been developing. Despite this, could still see some spotty shower activity through the morning and afternoon hours as the low pressure system and and attendant cold front travel through the region. A low pressure system over southern Manitoba will continue to translate eastward throughout the day today. Due to proximity of the low, a few spotty showers with some embedded thunder will also remain possible, primarily across northwestern Minnesota through the morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, upper level ridging will begin to build into the Plains on Friday.
This filling phase of the low means the winds at h85 and below are at their strongest right now and will be weakening through the day. Boundary layer dewpoints from the NAM and GFS both hold up in the low to mid 50s, so we aren't anticipating any crazy mixing out of dewpoints today.
Anderson (Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022) Friday through Thursday: As high pressure builds into the region, winds will become northwesterly for Friday with wind gusts upwards of 20kt during peak heating. A backdoor cold front will move into the area Friday evening, surging south down Lake Michigan. As the cold front moves in, this will bring a wind shift and onshore winds developing late in the evening. Expect some beautiful weather this weekend! As high pressure moves overhead, cooler air aloft will lead to a seasonable start to the weekend with highs in the 70s. Near Lake Michigan, ample sunshine and light gradient winds will allow the lake breeze to develop, and reinforce locally cooler conditions near the lakeshore.
The hot and humid conditions persist this afternoon as an expansive upper ridge maintains its hold over the Southeast. Temperatures have already risen into the lower to mid 90s and will continue to warm into the mid to upper 90s as we reach peak heating over the next few hours. Convection is expected to translate inland through the afternoon and evening hours, but coverage should remain isolated to scattered given the influence of the upper ridge. Overnight, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 70s.
A passing upper level low could help kick up the sea breeze tomorrow, so starting mentioning VCSH along the coast early tomorrow morning and push further north throughout the day as the sea breeze pushes further inland. Mid-upper ridging is still the dominant feature controlling area wx. Look for it to continue inching our way under the ridge.
Highs will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow also, mainly low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region.