Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front is moving through the forecast area and has already moved through KAEX/KBPT/KLCH and will move through KLFT/KARA before 11/14Z. A cold front is slowly pushing south and east across the area this morning. An Arctic air mass is spilling to the gulf coast as high pressure builds south through the plains. Any issue with freezing rain is expected to remain north of a Toledo Bend Dam to Alexandria line.
The push of AR moisture will alter the column a bit to raise snow levels with a phase change to snow up to 6000 feet tomorrow afternoon limiting some of the higher northern valleys for impacts.
Thursday afternoon a Pacific trough will dig into California. Due to the expected snow impacts in the lower elevations of north-central Idaho, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued, starting this afternoon and continuing through Tomorrow morning.
There was also an upper trough propagating east over northern Mexico and a third wave slowly moving towards the Pacific Northwest. Surface obs continue to show the dominant high pressure across the northern plains riding south into central TX. But there is also some slightly dryer air in low levels as indicated by the higher ceilings. As a result lows are forecast to be about 5 degrees cooler than this morning's temps.
Rain will increase in coverage as a cold front slides east this morning. 5 and 1 inch of rainfall with the highest amounts farther south. As the cold front moves further east across the CWA tonight, showers and storms will gradually end from west to east after sunset. Postfrontal CAA drops temperatures quickly overnight with morning lows around or just above freezing. Friday will be a brief reprieve from the rain, but it will be quite chilly with afternoon highs only topping out in the low to mid 40s. By Friday night, a low pressure system develops to our south along the departing cold front. Surface temps in our east, closer to the low, will be above freezing and see all rain, but farther west, temps are at or just below freezing.
Collaborative efforts with all neighbors promoted continuing headlines as dangerous/icy travel conditions continue and will be prolonged in sub freezing temps, at least during the best chance pcpn hours of the morning.
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 105 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 High pressure will ridge southward over the region from northern Ontario into Friday with colder air spilling across Lake Ontario.
A stronger 70+ kt mid-level jet will nose in from the northwest tonight, and northerly flow in the lower levels will continue to advect in colder air. There is a slight chance for some light freezing drizzle between 00-09z, but confidence is not high on this.
Additionally, breezy north to northeast winds will advect in cooler air helping to bring down temperatures especially in northern Oklahoma.
300 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 WV imagery shows an upper trough entering Texas, that extends all the way down to the Gulf of CA. This activity should move off to the south and east by this evening as the trough exits the area. Elsewhere, a very cold, shallow AMS is banked up against the higher terrain. So shallow attm, in fact, that it's actually warmer at the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns. At KMAF, it appears temps will stay below freezing this afternoon.
There is the potential for wind chills in the lower 40s below zero, mainly from the International Falls area into the Arrowhead, but cloud cover will be an issue along with winds being light.
1108 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Fog has diminished and most of the low stratus has lifted across the region. Expect highs in the low-to-mid 80s.
Upper flow is forecast to back to the southwest in response to a digging trough over the cntrl CONUS.
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 335 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 High pressure will ridge southward over the region from northern Ontario into Friday with colder air spilling across Lake Ontario.
An upper level low centered over southern Manitoba should remain in place over the next few days.
/issued 518 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/ An upper trough is beginning to move over the region with cold temperatures in place. Temperatures are mostly in the 20s and 30s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light fog across portions of the area. A Winter Weather Advisory and a Freezing Fog Advisory are in effect until noon CST/11 am MST this morning. Temperatures today will range from the lower 30s/upper 20s across the eastern Permian Basin to the 70s across portions of the Rio Grande. Temperatures across most of the Permian Basin and Lea County will be at or below freezing on Friday. Increased precipitation chances are expected beginning Friday night as an upper trough/low moves over the area.
High pressure will build toward the southeast Tonight, as a frontal boundary sinks southeast into SE GA.
A cold front will move into the area this afternoon and move slowly southeast, stalling offshore tonight. There will be a wide range in temperatures tonight, from the low 40s to near 50 west of I-65 to mid and upper 50s east of the interstate.
This ridge is driving gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes prevail along the Keys. This mornings sounding depicted a much more elevated inversion layer around 700 mb, which goes with the low level veering. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned high pressure system will move steadily eastwards through the day. The east to southeast flow will maintain well above seasonal temperatures with highs climbing into the lower 80s.
It seems that there would be a good chance freezing rain could be occurring or will soon across far northern Scott County as of 930 this morning. Furthermore, see no changes needed for Wise County as light precipitation is currently moving through the area with temperatures likely near or below freezing there. A sharp front will continue to slowly sag south as Arctic high pressure digs into the Midwest through the afternoon. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 49 41 47 35 / 30 20 80 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 45 39 44 34 / 40 10 70 80 20 Oak Ridge, TN 36 46 38 43 31 / 30 10 60 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 46 38 45 34 / 70 10 60 80 20 TN.
At the surface, a frontal boundary moves over the region while an area of low pressure develops over the central Gulf of Mexico, generally moving northeast toward the peninsula. High pressure will remain over the region through Friday before a frontal boundary moves into the region for the weekend.
205 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Waves of rainfall continue to affect the northern two-thirds of the area this afternoon as a cold front currently situated across northern Alabama and just nudging the northwest corner of Georgia slowly sinks southeastward. A CAD wedge will then develop across north Georgia, keeping temperatures cooler on Friday with highs generally from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
(This evening through Friday) Areas of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet continue across mainly the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country. Highs will range from the mid 20s in the Big Country to the lower 30s along the I-10 corridor.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 1015 AM MST Thu Feb 11 2021 A cold front moved through the area yesterday and brought in even colder air to the region. Strong high pressure, around 1050 mb, over Alberta will keep the cold air coming into this weekend.
High pressure is expected to slide southeast across ND tonight and be near the ND/SD/MN triple point by sunrise. With the high in the south, expect temps to fall a little more than normal in that area. Weather-wise, the week ahead is quiet as an arctic high pressure system remains strong over our area over the weekend.
937 AM PST Thu Feb 11 2021 A fair and slightly warmer day is in store for the region today.
Winds will not calm as the high settles in around the cwa.
Rain/Freezing rain is beginning to move out of middle TN.
High pressure today will lead to above normal afternoon temperatures. On Friday, a low pressure system will bring a chance of light rain and high elevation snow showers.
The dry layer observed in the lower atmosphere on 11.
However, areas to the south are likely more like a normal snowflake, as flakes are visible in streaming web cams, and upper end of the cloud layer is slightly warmer, toward the mid-low range of the DGZ. Light snow will again spread across the forecast area Friday night, and similar to today, the focus will be for areas south of I-90, especially near the Missouri River Valley and east along the Highway 20 corridor.
Temperatures will stay well below average as arctic high pressure continues to press south across the area.
245 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 Latest surface analysis places high pressure along the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies pushing into the northern plains and midwest.
Current trends with cold air advection indicate a higher potential for continued freezing rain through this afternoon, especially in our southwest zones.
243 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 Any light snow we managed to get out of todayâs weak trough traversing the area will come to an end overnight. Freezing, frigid, miserable, and bitter cold are all acceptable adjectives to describe temperatures and wind chills over the weekend, but perhaps the most important word is dangerous.
Of particular note is 12Z OHX sounding profile showing a warm nose just a little over 18C (47 Degrees F) around 835mb with a freezing level at 329 feet. Definitely a freezing rain type of sounding. Chances for rain and freezing rain will continue today, with low MVFR and IFR/LIFR cigs/vis.
Chances for rain and freezing rain will continue today, with low MVFR and IFR/LIFR cigs/vis.
332 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Weak troughing will remain over the relatively mild Great Lakes with arctic high pressure over the northern Mississippi Valley.
Clouds are on the increase across the central California interior this afternoon as a low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast is poised to usher in a much needed round of wet weather. The cold front will push through overnight with showers confined to the mountains and foothills by Friday morning and likely just the Kern County valley slopes by the afternoon. The Sierra and adjacent foothills will generally see a half an inch to one inch of rainfall, with the higher amounts favored towards Yosemite. Snow amounts are expected to range from 8 to 12 inches with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible over the higher elevations.
947 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 High pressure will ridge southward over the region from northern Ontario into Friday with colder air spilling across Lake Ontario.
657 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Water temperatures in Apalachee Bay are still if the 50s, the GEO-Polar blended 5km satellite derived sea surface temperatures show that cold water making it as far south as Cedar Key and slightly warmer but still cold (low 60s) water as far south as Hudson. At the surface, a frontal boundary moves over the region while an area of low pressure develops over the central Gulf of Mexico, generally moving northeast toward the peninsula. High pressure will remain over the region through Friday before a frontal boundary moves into the region for the weekend.
/Issued 205 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021/ Waves of rainfall continue to affect the northern two-thirds of the area this afternoon as a cold front currently situated across northern Alabama and just nudging the northwest corner of Georgia slowly sinks southeastward. A CAD wedge will then develop across north Georgia, keeping temperatures cooler on Friday with highs generally from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Temps across most of the area at or below freezing. Evening sounding showing high moisture content to 10KFT, and while drying will occur through the night, we may still see patchy freezing drizzle and/or fog. Lowered temps a bit for tonight and added freezing drizzle/fog to most of the area.
Freezing drizzle possible late this afternoon and tonight as main precipitation area continues to shift southeastward. With such strong western Canadian based high pressure system influences trying to build into mid state region and at least three other rounds of substantial moisture moving across mid state region through next Thursday afternoon, at least three rounds of additional winter weather events could be possible.
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI 420 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Cold upper low continues to spin over Manitoba this afternoon. Surface pattern features and elongated ridge of high pressure that extends from northern British Columbia (at 1052mb no less) southeast and into the upper Midwest. with its eastward extent into the Great Lakes stunted by lake aggregate troughing that runs from western Lake Superior southeast into the lower Lakes. Weaker pressure gradient within the trough has resulted in a mesoscale madhouse with the lake convection over Lake Superior today.
High pressure is centered to the north of the region. Upper level analysis continues to show low pressure southwest of Hudson Bay, with a secondary low further west across southeast SK. A broad trough covers Canada and the northern half of the US.
Any light snow we managed to get out of todayâs weak trough traversing the area will come to an end overnight. Freezing, frigid, miserable, and bitter cold are all acceptable adjectives to describe temperatures and wind chills over the weekend, but perhaps the most important word is dangerous.
On Friday, a low pressure system will bring a chance of light rain and high elevation snow showers.
750 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 High pressure will ridge southward over the region from northern Ontario into Friday with colder air spilling across Lake Ontario.
As of 21z this afternoon, a closed upper low remained over Central Canada with another trough located over western Mexico. In between, zonal flow persists across the Central Plains as Canadian high pressure continues to dominate the middle of the country. Even colder Canadian air begins to filter in tonight as a trough moves onshore and dives southeast across the western US.
KCNM will remain VFR for a few hours but the low cloud deck over the Permian Basin will to push westward bring IFR conditions back. /issued 300 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/ WV imagery shows an upper trough entering Texas, that extends all the way down to the Gulf of CA. This activity should move off to the south and east by this evening as the trough exits the area. Elsewhere, a very cold, shallow AMS is banked up against the higher terrain. So shallow attm, in fact, that it's actually warmer at the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns. At KMAF, it appears temps will stay below freezing this afternoon.
352 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 As of 21z this afternoon, a closed upper low remained over Central Canada with another trough located over western Mexico. In between, zonal flow persists across the Central Plains as Canadian high pressure continues to dominate the middle of the country. Even colder Canadian air begins to filter in tonight as a trough moves onshore and dives southeast across the western US.
In the eastern half of the state, cold air will re-enter the area, leading to another round of widespread low stratus clouds and freezing fog and/or drizzle tonight into Friday morning.
Latest surface analysis places high pressure along the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies pushing into the northern plains and midwest.
Ridgetop winds straight westerly at 45-50 kts around 650 mb.
An upper trof over northern Mexico which extends into the southern Plains weakens somewhat while advancing eastward to the lower Mississippi River valley and across much of the northwestern Gulf. A cold front is currently located east of the land portion of the forecast area and extends from near 70 miles south of the Alabama coast to near Panama City, Florida. The front shifts a bit further south and east of the area through Friday night as the upper trof approaches. Have gone with likely to categorical pops for Friday night, with the higher pops mainly along and east of I-65 where better deep layer moisture will be present. Highs on Friday range from the upper 40s to lower 50s over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama to the lower to mid 60s east of I-65.
Winds will also begin to pick up in intensity tonight across northeastern Oklahoma as high pressure builds to our north.
A little farther to the north, a frontal boundary extends from the mid-Atlantic states southwest through GA and then farther west-southwest to an area of low pressure off the southeast coast of TX.
Wintry precipitation through at least SAT looks unlikely for all but parts of Central LA, which could be cold enough at the surface to see periods of light freezing rain, if any is around. If forced to choose, rain and freezing rain appear to be the most probable weather types at this time.
Cannot completely rule out some patchy freezing drizzle, however, latest profiles point towards there being enough moisture aloft for ice crystals present for the majority of the day and a seeder feeder scenario. Upper flow is forecast to back to the southwest in response to a digging trough over the cntrl CONUS.
Some light freezing rain will be possible for another hour or so across extreme southeast portions of the forecast area and will leave low POPs intact through midnight.
/issued 300 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/ WV imagery shows an upper trough entering Texas, that extends all the way down to the Gulf of CA. This activity should move off to the south and east by this evening as the trough exits the area. Elsewhere, a very cold, shallow AMS is banked up against the higher terrain. So shallow attm, in fact, that it's actually warmer at the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns. At KMAF, it appears temps will stay below freezing this afternoon.
These will drift north and affect at least a few island communities during the near-sunrise hours, especially the Lower and Middle Keys at first. The Keys remain to the south of an Atlantic ridge extending across Florida. Gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will generally prevail across the Keys coastal waters, becoming southeast by Friday and easing a bit as a cold front develops near the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The temperature has already cooled to around freezing in the Treasure Valley, allowing snow to begin to accumulate. Snow should taper off in the lower valley by early morning.
Surrounding sites show temps around 33 degrees, and since it is possible that parts of Wise county could be below freezing, the Ice Storm Warning will be maintained. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 41 46 36 46 / 10 80 80 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 39 44 35 43 / 20 60 80 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 46 38 43 33 42 / 10 50 70 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 38 44 36 43 / 40 40 80 40 20 VA.
909 PM PST Thu Feb 11 2021 A compact low pressure system will drop southeast across California tonight and Friday, bringing a chance of showers along and west of the mountains.
1038 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 High pressure will ridge southward over the region from northern Ontario into Friday with colder air spilling across Lake Ontario.
With a 1040 mb high pressure overhead, max temps today will struggle to reach the single digits below zero.
We should see intensities increase closer to 1 inch per hour (at least in the orographically-favored locations) later this morning as lift increases ahead of the trough axis. although terrain-driven showers over the high country will linger through much of the night. Another trough gains strength as it digs southeast across the Great Basin on Saturday.
Surface analysis shows the Keys along the SW flank of Atlantic high pressure extending westward across the Florida peninsula, with weak low pressure developing in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a strong ridge parked over the Greater Antilles, with the Keys along the northern edge of slightly anticyclonic flow between this ridge and a longwave trough over the central CONUS. Otherwise, we will see partly cloudy skies this morning give way to more sunshine in the afternoon, and high temps into the lower 80s which will be several degrees above normal. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s, with lows only dropping into the mid 70s. Model guidance continues to point towards a potential frontal passage around next Friday, as a strong southern stream low finally kicks the CONUS trough eastward.
A strong cold front has moved into the gulf over the past day with an Arctic air mass spilling in. Moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms is currently moving east across the lower Atchafalaya Basin in response to a short wave aloft. Cold air advection is still ongoing as the front slowly sinks south and temperatures have fallen to near freezing from the Toledo Bend through Central Louisiana. Temperatures will fall to around freezing across interior southeast Texas and Central Louisiana and perhaps down to around Hwy 190.
Upper flow is forecast to back to the southwest in response to a digging trough over the cntrl CONUS. At moment, frontal orientation and warm advection above the boundary layer indicate mixed precip for the area with some possible freezing rain south and east of Pittsburgh.
Cannot completely rule out some patchy freezing drizzle, however, latest profiles point towards there being enough moisture aloft for ice crystals present for the majority of the day and a seeder feeder scenario. Upper flow is forecast to back to the southwest in response to a digging trough over the cntrl CONUS. At moment, frontal orientation and warm advection above the boundary layer indicate mixed precip for the area with some possible freezing rain south and east of Pittsburgh.
246 AM MST Fri Feb 12 2021 Broad cyclonic flow aloft continues this morning as deep/cold upper low persists across the central Canadian prairies. Embedded perturbations continue to stream eastward along the southern periphery of the low.
While it appears this band will set up across the central Sandhills (along the Highway 2 corridor), there is still some uncertainty where this band will ultimately set up. There is a real concern that this trend may continue over the next couple forecast cycles and more dry air will filter in as the high builds into the region.
Given that I am carrying PoPs into the overnight hours with below freezing temperatures, this leaves the door open for more freezing rain in these areas. Due to continued strong SW flow at the 500mb level, and a shallow 850mb boundary riding between our zones, and our neighbors to the north, temperatures today and tomorrow will be slightly warmer (relatively speaking).
Light snow should fall across the entire area Saturday as the upper trough moves across the area and warm advection continues. Amounts should range from about a half inch in northcentral Wisconsin to as much as 3 inches near Lake Michigan, where the very cold Arctic air over the warmer lake waters induces a thermal trough in the low levels, creating convergence near the lake and bringing some moisture inland as well.
We went with our given guidance for the lows tonight.
Early this Friday morning, temperatures were mainly in the 27-32 range with patchy freezing fog/drizzle. This will maintain our current setup of cold temperatures at the surface with warmer air several thousand feet up above the surface. We think freezing rain will be the result, but the big question is how much moisture and precipitation will occur.
Arctic air mass persists, with reinforced CAA aloft as mid/upper low centered over southern Manitoba very slowly transitions east/southeast through Saturday.
346 AM PST Fri Feb 12 2021 A compact low pressure system moving southward through the area today will bring cooling with gusty west to northwest winds in the mountains and deserts and with scattered mostly light showers from the coast into the mountains. The next low pressure system moving southeastward across the area will bring strong gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts for Saturday into Saturday evening with a slight chance of light showers for the mountains in the late afternoon and early evening.