Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
219 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Water vapor satellite shows an upper trough digging over the desert southwest. This trough should weaken as it pivots and traverses around an upper ridge over the southeastern US over the next day or so. This should aid in bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air bringing temperatures tonight into the teens in central Kansas to the low 30s in southeast Kansas. This trough is also helping to pull moisture northeastward from the eastern Pacific; however, most of the moisture will remain well to the south and east of the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Warm weather will continue across Deep South Texas through tonight with a 500mb ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. On Saturday, a midlevel trough over the Southwest will push east and bring a strong cold front through the CWA late Saturday afternoon and evening. Cooler air in wake of the front will lead to much colder temperatures for Saturday night with lows dropping into the mid 40s north to low 50s across portions of the Valley.
A surface cold front is due in this evening which has some indications of a scattered to possibly broken deck around 2500' AGL. The resulting increased low level westerlies will begin to dry out the lower atmosphere and scour out low cloudiness by early afternoon. A cold front will descend southward through the TX Panhandle late this evening. Outside of this small area of mentionable PoPs, the frontal passage will be dry, with impacts confined to a northerly wind shift and the entrance of a much cooler air mass into the region. Cooler temperatures will persist through the weekend following a cold front early Saturday morning. However, this will not last for too long as a trough moves overhead late in the weekend.
97 A cold front is moving through the forecast area early this morning. High pressure moves in tonight which will clear the skies. Temperatures rebound on Saturday as an upper ridge moves through the area.
117 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 High pressure will move off to the northeast today.
An area of low pressure will lift northeast along a baroclinic zone across the Ohio Valley, with associated precipitation just clipping the far southeastern corner of the forecast area. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today, with highs a couple of degrees on either side of freezing.
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 (Today and Tonight) Above normal temperatures will prevail across the area today, ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the area this evening and overnight.
A few light sprinkles brushed the lower Keys this morning and BYX shows additional very isolated light showers and sprinkles moving into the middle portions of the lower Keys. However, like the lower Keys, BYX and AMX radars show isolated showers moving in from near Andros Island and heading west. All of this activity is thanks to an expansive ridge that sits over the western North Atlantic. However, subsidence remains in place because of said ridge and therefore will act to limit shower coverage.
Warm front lifts north this afternoon with VFR conditions south of the boundary and IFR to LIFR cigs/vsby along and north of the boundary. Mesoanalysis data and WV sat imgry indicate broad, pos tilted troughing extending over the Wrn coast, w/ the main trof axis entering the Wrn periphery of the Four Corners region, and a long fetch of upper lvl S/Wrly flow positioned over the Srn Cntrl US. By Sat, aforementioned longwave troughing is expected to overspread the Cntrl US, w/ a fetch of N/Wrly upper flow aiding in driving a cold frnt through the Plains and into the Srn Cntrl US. As drier and cooler air filters in, PoPs will dwindle in coverage and magnitude from N/W to S/E.
128 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Aviation/Marine -- Light Snow Saturday -- After a mostly sunny Friday with lighter winds and some high clouds streaming through, clouds increase Friday night as a low pressure system develops near the Ohio River valley. There remains some lower-probability solutions (about 10 percent) of near zero QPF on the low end to over 0. 3 inch QPF on the high end.
1254 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Look for increasing clouds today with highs in the lower 40s.
A cold front will clear precipitation out tonight and bring in much cooler temperatures tonight and tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop below freezing for much of northern and northwest Oklahoma. A cold front will move through later this evening (entering NW OK around noon, passing through central OK around 7-9pm). Between cold air advection and some clearing in the northwest, expect a decent temperature gradient for overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 20s in far northwest Oklahoma to the low to mid 30s across central into southwest Oklahoma to the lower 40s in south central / southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Texas. Saturday will be cold (highs in the low 40s to low 50s).
Stratus developed in the wake of the exiting trough which kept morning temperatures warmer than expected at several locations.
Outside of major urban areas, near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley tonight and Saturday night.
A warm front lifting through northern zones right now is making for light and variable winds around TXK/ELD, but surface winds at these sites will evolve to be southerly at 10 to 12 mph by midday. A strong cold front will move into the region from the northwest later tonight through midday tomorrow and will bring numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with it.
A surface-850mb level trough will be poised to spread east across the area this morning, turning winds from west to east out of the north and breezy. A generally homogeneous airmass should warmup to around the low to mid 50s temperature (F) area. Some cirrus may be accompanying an advancing cold front tonight, but won't likely have measurable impact on crashing temperatures in the evening and overnight. Cooler airmass settles over the region, but it's a glancing shot of cooler air as opposed to very strong cold air advection that might hang around and influence the daily highs for days. There is a deep positively tilted upper trough that will be progressing eastward across the Great Plains on Saturday.
Will be keeping the highest pops east of the Illinois river with chance pops around Galesburg where HiRes models keep agree that the threat there will be limited. Cloud cover and precip will hold temps and only expecting slowly falling or nearly steady temperatures, reaching the lower 30s in the north to the upper 30s in the southeast. Once the front moves east of the area, high pressure will build into the region with dry weather.
500mb trough to cut across the region overnight tonight through Saturday morning. Plus, with the lack of a significant moisture source as the cold front draped across the Lower Mississippi River/Ozark area blocking/hogging any chance of tapping into the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry weather quickly comes to an end tonight across the area as warm front edges northward in response to low pressure. Above freezing temperatures this evening will allow for all rain through 6Z. Depth of the layer isn't overly large so some partial melting/re-freeze would suggest better chance for sleet or snow vs freezing rain late tonight in this area. Saturday the deepest moisture will shift east, but still some lingering low level moisture and life may result in some drizzle/freezing drizzle as ice crystals are likely lost. Expect continued light E-NE flow until around 18z Saturday as the low lifts out (wind shift to N-NW 18-00z Sun).
1030 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 High pressure will move off to the northeast today.
In fact, afternoon highs are expected to be a couple degrees warmer today, reaching the low to mid 50s for most locations. Cooler airmass settles over the region, but it's a glancing shot of cooler air as opposed to very strong cold air advection that might hang around and influence the daily highs for days. There is a deep positively tilted upper trough that will be progressing eastward across the Great Plains on Saturday.
1132 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Quiet weather continues today with seasonable high temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s. An upper-level trough continues to approach the area from the west, pushing upper-level moisture along with it.
241 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 At 20Z, regional mid-level water vapor imagery showed a trough over the Rockies with southwest flow over the eastern Kansas. That ridge will build southward from the Intermountain West into the Plains tomorrow (Saturday), bringing a cooler air mass with it.
An upper level low over Hudson Bay drags a trough through the far northeastern plains thence SWWRD into Baja California. The northern portion of the trough will pull away from the southern extent which is progged to develop into a closed low across northern Sonora and adjacent portions of AZ/NM.
A strong cold front will sweep into the region Saturday evening, bringing another round of widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the area (thanks to a modest ribbon of elevated instability).
A strong cold front will make its entrance early Saturday morning across KCLL, quickly moving near KIAH around noon and along the coastal sites by early afternoon.
In fact, afternoon highs are expected to be a couple degrees warmer today, reaching the low to mid 50s for most locations.
- More seasonable temperatures through the weekend, highs in the 30s and 40s and morning lows below freezing. This activity remains focused along a diffuse surface boundary, buoyed by the incoming open trough into the northern Plains. However, with the influence of the passing upper trough, there may be some flurries Saturday morning along and near the Missouri River Valley from the KC Metro to MO/NE/IA.
MVFR conditions are likely to move back into the area tonight ahead of a cold front.
01 We start out the fcst period with some lingering shower chances mainly in parts of the south and east as the cold front should allow for drying conditions and some increased winds switching out of the NW as we go through the day.
1024 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 An upper trough/clipper system is crossing the western CONUS, with the main energy pushing across the northern Rockies. A cold front will also cross the CWA today, with strong cold air advection. to the low to mid 30s over SC SD. Strong high pressure builds in for Saturday, bringing a warming trend through the weekend.
135 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 A warm front has just about lifted all the way through Middle Tennessee, taking most of the earlier showers with it and allowing temperatures to rise into the 60's most areas. We can expect a reprieve from the showers for most of tonight, but look for more development tomorrow as a cold front creeps across the mid state and brings one final round of showers and perhaps a few storms during the afternoon.
Model sounding show that even with the loss of moisture advection, the low levels remain saturated or mostly saturated through the daytime hours which will lead to a cloudy day with relatively mild temperatures in the morning with a slow dropoff during the day as weak CAA and cloudy skies combine to create the non-diurnal temperature curve. Drier air will slowly erode the cloud deck during the overnight hours with quiet weather expected through the night as high pressure begins to build across the area. A few upper troughs will move through the northern stream, but forcing will remain north of the area. Thus, only expect only a couple of dry cold frontal passages through much of the week leading up to Christmas Eve. Temperatures will bounce around normal as the cold fronts bring periodic pushes of some cooler air.
301 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Current surface analysis reveals a warm front currently stretching from southwestern TN into far eastern KY. "Low" temperatures will generally occur early this evening ahead of the advancing warm front as many locations will be in the mid 50s to low 60s by sunrise tomorrow. A cold front will race toward the region tomorrow morning and bring another round of rain showers. 50", with the highest totals along and north of the Ohio River.
(The rest of today ) Warm front in the vicinity of the I-40 corridor will advance slowly north into the afternoon before stalling. Axis of heavier rainfall likely not to push too much further to the northwest this afternoon given the expected warm frontal movement. Cold front will move through tonight as an upper trough axis passes to the north.
Dry weather quickly comes to an end tonight across the area as warm front edges northward in response to low pressure. Above freezing temperatures this evening will allow for all rain through 6Z. Depth of the layer isn't overly large so some partial melting/re-freeze would suggest better chance for sleet or snow vs freezing rain late tonight in this area. Saturday the deepest moisture will shift east, but still some lingering low level moisture and life may result in some drizzle/freezing drizzle as ice crystals are likely lost.
Satellite is showing some breaks in the mid level stratus deck across the region which as allowed temperatures to warm above freezing at most valley locations. This along with increasing high clouds will limit fog development and keep low temperatures well above guidance around freezing overnight in the lower valleys. Wind will increase Saturday afternoon from the east as the next low pressure system approaches the Washington State coast. Temperatures will remain close to normal in the lower valleys but below normal outside of the stratus deck.
More cold air advection behind the trough will once again cause temperatures to plummet Saturday night to low single digits to below zero.
Warm front has not lifted north as quickly as anticipated, keeping the northern half or more of the state socked in with low stratus and patchy dense fog. As the aforementioned upper trough approaches, coverage and intensity will tick up with the flood threat maximized this evening into tonight as the eastern OK convection moves in. Severe potential remains low overall, although elevated strong/severe hailers cannot be ruled out north of the warm front with an isolated strong/severe storm in the warm sector across western AR this evening. Through tonight and Saturday, the upper wave will push east and drive a cold front through the area from the northwest.
Fair but very cold weather is in store for NV for the next couple of days as a ridge moves across the region. The exception to this may be from freezing fog that can form in the valleys during the morning hours. A ridge is moving across the region bringing a period of fair weather to the silver state. This ridge will help continue the broad northerly flow for tonight and Saturday morning which will move further cold air across NV. There is a chance that freezing fog can form in the valleys during the morning hours as well. If this does occur then it will help keep temperatures slightly warmer but not by much. Freezing fog will cause slippery conditions on roadways so use caution if it is encountered.
638 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 A low pressure system will bring precipitation to the region through Saturday.
The main trough, currently over the Four Corners Region, will swing eastward overnight and help push the warm front back south as a cold front Saturday morning.
A warm front has just about lifted all the way through Middle Tennessee, taking most of the earlier showers with it and allowing temperatures to rise into the 60's most areas. We can expect a reprieve from the showers for most of tonight, but look for more development tomorrow as a cold front creeps across the mid state and brings one final round of showers and perhaps a few storms during the afternoon.
NBM and other newer guidance came in warmer as well. Sided with cooler end guidance for eastern areas.
A warm front was slowly lifting northward into northern Arkansas this afternoon leading to a band of showers with scattered thunderstorms with heavier rainfall from northern Arkansas into southern Missouri. with cloud tops cooling again to the west further raising the concern for flooding over southern Missouri ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure will be centered to the northeast Tonight, then more to the east on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be well above normal with readings around 80 to the lower 80s common.
532 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Water vapor satellite shows an upper trough digging over the desert southwest. This trough should weaken as it pivots and traverses around an upper ridge over the southeastern US over the next day or so. This should aid in bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air bringing temperatures tonight into the teens in central Kansas to the low 30s in southeast Kansas. This trough is also helping to pull moisture northeastward from the eastern Pacific; however, most of the moisture will remain well to the south and east of the area.
TONIGHT: The forecast's most significant weather is produced with the passage of a cold front later tonight.
At 20Z, regional mid-level water vapor imagery showed a trough over the Rockies with southwest flow over the eastern Kansas. That ridge will build southward from the Intermountain West into the Plains tomorrow (Saturday), bringing a cooler air mass with it.
247 PM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 A cold front passing through the region from north to south has left much of the region with cold temperatures this morning. Arctic air has settled across the plains today as an arctic high pressure system moves across the plains. Temperatures are slightly warmer across SW MT, where some of the valleys have managed to reach into the mid to upper teens.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Atlantic high pressure will be nudged slightly to the south and east by a cold front moving into the southeast U. The ridge axis will also sink southward a bit veering low-level winds more southerly, which may give east central Florida its warmest day this week despite more cloud cover. Max temps in the low 80s near the coast and mid 80s inland.
Some of the high-res models suggest a rain/sleet mix in the far northwest CWA, with HRRR soundings from Galesburg showing a warm layer of 1-2C just above 800 mb. This layer was sampled by our evening sounding, though warmer down here around 5C. Will be keeping the highest pops east of the Illinois river with chance pops around Galesburg where HiRes models keep agree that the threat there will be limited. Cloud cover and precip will hold temps and only expecting slowly falling or nearly steady temperatures, reaching the lower 30s in the north to the upper 30s in the southeast. Once the front moves east of the area, high pressure will build into the region with dry weather.
412 PM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front has pushed just south and east of the forecast area, with breezy to windy conditions and colder air pushing in. Upper level analysis shows trough moving east through the northern high Plains. The gusty winds and snow showers will taper off late today and this evening as the trough moves east of the region and high pressure settles over the Dakotas. Warmer air will start to return to the area on Saturday as the Canadian high shifts east of the region.
353 PM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 The central portion of the broad latitude upper trough extending from south central Canada to the far southwest U.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered far offshore over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, with a ridge extending westward along the northern Gulf Coast, and a stationary front draped from the Mid Atlantic coast westward through the Southern Plains. Aloft, a strong deep layered ridge centered to the northeast of the Bahamas is maintaining this unusually static weather pattern for mid December. Warm and moist ESE flow circulating around the ridges at the surface and aloft continues to dominate the Keys and South Florida.
A series of low pressure systems over the northeastern Pacific Ocean are working together with a broad ridge of high pressure off the coast of California to push a constant stream of moisture onto the shore of the Pacific Northwest. Cold air currently in place will keep precipitation in the form of snow as warmer, moisture-rich Pacific air is able to flow over the cold air.
923 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 A low pressure system will bring precipitation to the region through Saturday.
557 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 GOES water vapor imagery shows a broad trough across the northern Rockies and high plains early this afternoon. Lift associated with the approaching trough will increase this evening and tonight. However, much of the lift will go into gradually saturating the low to mid-levels. The highest chances for light snow still remain across north-central WI late tonight into Saturday morning with not much more than perhaps some flurries farther south. High pressure will slowly build east into the area on Saturday with modest cold advection through the day limiting highs to the 20s to low 30s.
Some turbulence will be possible around 2500 feet AGL after a cold front moves through the terminals later this evening through 12Z. An upper level low over Hudson Bay drags a trough through the far northeastern plains thence SWWRD into Baja California. The northern portion of the trough will pull away from the southern extent which is progged to develop into a closed low across northern Sonora and adjacent portions of AZ/NM.
350 PM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 The central portion of the broad latitude upper trough extending from south central Canada to the far southwest U.
245 PM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front has pushed just south and east of the forecast area, with breezy to windy conditions and colder air pushing in. Upper level analysis shows trough moving east through the northern high Plains. The gusty winds and snow showers will taper off late today and this evening as the trough moves east of the region and high pressure settles over the Dakotas. Warmer air will start to return to the area on Saturday as the Canadian high shifts east of the region.
Precip amounts will likely ramp up, esp over srn IL and se MO tonight as a mid level trof pushes southeastward into the Midwest and Plains states and interacts with the warm front lifting northward across the OH River Valley, and then becoming stationary across that region. Swly 850 mb low lvl jet is progged to ramp up to 40-45 kts, and PWAT values are still forecast via GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables are now progged to run 4 to 5 Standard Deviations above climo norms overnight over much of srn IL/se MO as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary just north of the OH River.
Warm front has moved northward to the Kentucky border per surface obs, with temperatures south of the boundary now in the low 60s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s.
402 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Precip amounts will likely ramp up, esp over srn IL and se MO tonight as a mid level trof pushes southeastward into the Midwest and Plains states and interacts with the warm front lifting northward across the OH River Valley, and then becoming stationary across that region. Swly 850 mb low lvl jet is progged to ramp up to 40-45 kts, and PWAT values are still forecast via GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables are now progged to run 4 to 5 Standard Deviations above climo norms overnight over much of srn IL/se MO as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary just north of the OH River.
Current surface analysis reveals a warm front currently stretching from southwestern TN into far eastern KY. "Low" temperatures will generally occur early this evening ahead of the advancing warm front as many locations will be in the mid 50s to low 60s by sunrise tomorrow. A cold front will race toward the region tomorrow morning and bring another round of rain showers. 50", with the highest totals along and north of the Ohio River.