Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging will remain over the area tonight, then looks to get dampened some on Saturday as southwest flow sets up ahead of a trough extending from Hudson Bay to the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s east.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low just off the NE coast, with the axis of the trough extending southwestward into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, an upper ridge was building just east of the Rockies, as a potent up low moving eastward towards the NW coast. At the surface, high pressure persists over much of the eastern CONUS, keeping dry conditions across the area. This has resulted in a rather pleasant day across the TN valley, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the lower 80s. There may be some patchy fog in the lower lying areas, however not anticipating very much given the dry conditions. The upper trough will shift to the northeast, as the subtropical ridge builds northward and into the area.
758 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A few upper level disturbances will pivot through the Middle Atlantic states and Carolinas in cyclonic flow aloft through tonight, followed by sub-tropical high pressure that will build across the southeastern U. Weak high pressure was extending/building into central NC, providing mostly clear skies along with warmer temperatures. The longwave trough will move offshore early Sat and yield to (significantly) rising heights aloft (about 100 meters from 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun), as subtropical high pressure strengthens and becomes situated over the Carolinas.
WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending from the SW CONUS into the upper Midwest, and a trough approaching the PacNW.
A broad upper level low will result in cool weather with periods of rain through the weekend and the possibility of thunderstorms through Saturday.
1148 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A large upper-level ridge will build over the region over the next 48 hours.
Cold front was over W MT at 20Z and will move E through the area tonight. A fast WSW flow aloft will combine with a lesser northerly flow in the lower-levels to create strong Bulk Effective Shear this evening from Big Horn County E and NE. Kept some low PoPs over the far NE zones in the morning due to lingering moisture, and had low PoPs over and near the high terrain in the W. Weak ridging builds over the area Sat.
627 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A deep 500 mb low is sitting just off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon, with weak ridging over the Plains. Most of the eastern half of the CONUS is under northwesterly flow aloft and a weak ridge at the surface. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies and continued southerly flow as the ridge axis drifts eastward.
740 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Low pressure over Lower Michigan will weaken while tracking toward Lake Ontario tonight. A strong upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend ushering in hot and humid conditions. Strong upper ridge builds over the entire forecast area this weekend ushering in hotter and more humid conditions.
520 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge axis over the High Plains. The dry air rounding the ridge has lead to a clear sky across a large portion of the Plains, expect for afternoon cumulus developing downstream of the ridge axis. Behind the trough winds will turn to the north then back to the south through the afternoon. Further north a weak cold front will move south. The cooler air should remain north of the forecast area. With a 850mb ridge overhead, winds will be light. By Saturday night, the upper ridge dominating the pattern begins to progress east as a low moves onto the west coast. Southwest flow develops aloft over the High Plains as the low digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Dry weather is expected for the next 7 days as an upper level low pressure system moves over the Great Basin, then migrates northeastward across the northern Rockies and upper Great Plains.
745 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Expect clear to mostly clear skies to prevail for the area through Saturday after the high clouds over the eastern plains exit the state. Winds increase over the higher terrain and along the foothills overnight. High temperatures could be a couple degrees warmer than today, especially if no cirrus develops. 700 mb winds are forecast to be around 40 knots, and if this flow affects the higher terrain, then ridges will see 45-50 mph winds.
Increasing Rain Chances During The Weekend And Into Next Through the remainder of tonight - A broad upper level trough over the southern plains and western Gulf begins to cut-off over east TX as ridging starts building north over Fl. eases east with the ridge axis pivoting north. This along with the building upper ridge allows a frontal boundary across the Keys and far southeast FL to lift into southwest Fl as a warm front by daybreak. Warm front approaching from far south FL will bring MVFR CIGS AFT 07-08Z along with a few SHRA for PGD/FMY/RSW. this evening pushes north as a warm front during the weekend.
1043 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Upper ridge axis is centered over the northern plains, and some mid/high clouds are streaming into the CWA through southwest flow. Ahead of the 850 mb trough, models are showing a 50 kt low-level jet across south central SD. Then behind the trough/cold front, 850 winds of 30-40 kts, along with impressive pressure rises and CAA, will support gusty northwest winds across portions of western SD. Saturday will be dry and slightly cooler, with highs generally in the 80s.
One more night of below normal temperatures is expected although temperatures won't be quite as cool as the past two nights, with lows falling into the lower 60s acrs central LA and upper 60s/around 70 along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures now running in the low to mid 80s, while dewpoints have mixed down into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees yielding a very tolerable relative humidity value of near 40 percent. Atmospheric moisture will remain limited and primarily confined to the lower levels where a deepening and strengthening southerly flow will become established.
526 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Visible satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the area with a band of mid to high level cloudiness moving eastward across the high plains at this hour. Upper level ridge axis has pushed into the central plains with southwest flow increasing across the region. A weak cold front will begin moving southward across central Wyoming late tonight and into tomorrow, so high temperatures may not be quite as warm as today well north of Interstate 80.
Dry weather and warm temperature will follow with persistent high pressure. Dry, warm, and more humid weather will ensue with the building of broad high pressure this weekend. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, though isolated/scattered showers should continue early this morning with the passage of a weak trough. Building ridging is expected by afternoon. Shower/tstm restrictions are possible by Wed as the high pressure ridge erodes.
The 00Z sounding indicated that moisture had increased from this morning in the lower levels beneath a strong inversion located near 765 mb. Southeast flow prevailed in the lowest levels, southwest to west winds in the mid levels, and westerly winds in the upper levels.
Temperatures will remain well below seasonal averages, especially inland, through the weekend as an unseasonably cold upper low settles over northern California.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact the region as a deep upper level trough sits off the Pacific NW coast.
Further to the south and towards the coast, highs so far have been in the lower to mid 80s.
Sub-tropical high pressure will build across the southeastern U.
1153 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Weak low pressure has moved east and remaining sct-bkn lower vfr deck will be east of KMBS by 06z (already clear elsewhere). Southwest winds will become gusty by midday Saturday with advent of warmer airmass.
850 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A large upper-level ridge will build over the region over the next 48 hours.
Our weather today through Saturday will continue to be influenced by a large scale mid-upper level trough extending down from the mid Atlantic coast.
High pressure will hold influence through the night as return flow begins to ease into eastern Kentucky. This will keep fog mainly confined to river valley locales with ridge temperatures remaining above Friday afternoon's crossover temperatures. That said, the clear skies will also lead to some minor temperature splits, as return flow should keep the ridges a bit warmer. However, return flow will lead to a warmer day with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Ridging aloft and at the surface will dominate our weather during the first 24 to 36 hours of the extended. Then the weak, subtle feature mentioned before or more specifically some lingering "troughiness" over eastern Texas and the Gulf of Mexico, will drift northward through the deep south.
610 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A ridge aloft will build over the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS through the short term.
505 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Upper ridge axis is centered over the northern plains, and some mid/high clouds are streaming into the CWA through southwest flow. Ahead of the 850 mb trough, models are showing a 50 kt low-level jet across south central SD. Then behind the trough/cold front, 850 winds of 30-40 kts, along with impressive pressure rises and CAA, will support gusty northwest winds across portions of western SD. Saturday will be dry and slightly cooler, with highs generally in the 80s.
Water vapor and RAP analysis depict a positively tilted trough shifting across NE Texas. The base of the trough will brush across south-central Texas through the afternoon and early evening and coincide with maximum instability near 2500 J/Kg. Saturday will be a quieter day as the trough actually closes off over the Texas coast but the region will be on the drier northern flow, negative vorticity advection area, with slightly lower PWATs.
1152 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A ridge aloft will build over the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS through the short term.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 86 65 87 / 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 85 60 85 / 0 10 0 0.
Upper level flow will become more zonal today as the low continues to move up the east coast.
Dry weather and warm temperature will follow with persistent high pressure. Dry, warm, and more humid weather will ensue with the building of broad high pressure this weekend. High pressure will develop Saturday afternoon, ending all restrictions. No widespread restrictions are expected as broad high pressure builds.
639 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 High pressure to the northeast maintaining the SE flow which should feed into storms in the Hill Country for a few hours.
Current analysis shows high pressure overhead with just some scattered CU this afternoon with temps in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the low to mid 50s. High pressure will slowly slide east of the Carolina coast allowing muggy conditions to return over the weekend.
Through the next couple of days there will be a chance for moderate to heavy rainfall, especially localized within the stronger thunderstorms given the higher precipitable water values forecast.
In the absence of strong forcing, orographic forcing and the higher terrain will become the primary focusing mechanism through this evening.
Otherwise, high pressure will ensure a dry and seasonable day. Tuesday Night Through Monday High pressure over Lake Superior is expected to shift into eastern Ontario Tuesday night, but should still have enough influence to maintain a dry forecast over northeast WI.
/12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Mid level heights look to begin rising as ridge builds west across the northern Gulf of Mexico. With the moist conditions in place, think the increasing warmth will be initially slow to manifest, but Tuesday does look one or two degree warmer than today.
Ridging in place across south FL will lift north to across the area through mid week.
951 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Evening water vapor loop/00Z upper air analyses showed a mid/upper level trough axis over the Intermountain West. Most of the heavier convection has exited to the east of the CWA, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading northeast across central and southern Wyoming ahead of a slow moving cold front. Temps will be around 5-10 degrees cooler for tomorrow behind a weak fropa overnight.
A gradual warming trend is forecast from Tuesday through the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds over California. An upper level trough brought cooler air into the district today. Temperatures will be recovering on Tuesday as the trough moves inland. Low clouds should clear to the coast in the afternoon and temperatures will be slightly warmer.
/issued 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/ RAP and satellite analysis showed a longwave trough pushing into the Great Basin region this afternoon. Short term models also show afternoon convection developing over the high terrain of NM and pushing eastward. This should be our last day of widespread storms as high pressure over the SE US begins to retrograde towards the central Southern US.
In addition, the low level jet which helped keep the complex going overnight into this morning is much weaker than it was 24 hours ago.
720 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 There will be a chance of drizzle tonight and into Tuesday morning, along with cooler temperatures.
Farther north and west toward KSGF and KJLN, the lower clouds may have tougher time to form, but some fog is still possible.
Guidance has the best chance south of the higher elevation Ozarks terrain over far southern MO with KBBG having the best chance to see IFR cat visibility and/or ceilings.
Highs have gotten into the lower 90s across a good portion of the area and combine that with the high dewpoints and the heat index has jumped up to around 105 degrees in a few areas. As for the next few days we will continue to have kind of a dirty/ weak ridge over the area.
Surface wise, a broad ridge lies nearby, resulting in light and variable winds of less than 10 knots on our marine district. A deepening ridge nearby will result in limited moisture, hence, shower and perhaps a thunderstorm will be isolated in coverage at best.
Lows tonight in the lower/mid 70s, warmest S/SE. With the above in mind, will indicate a 50% chance of showers/storms across the area, primarily during the aft/eve hours, with highs in the mid 80s (N) to ~90F (S) and lows in the lower/mid 70s.
A cold front will push south across northern Utah tonight then stall across central Utah on Tuesday.
922 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Cooler early this week, then warming back to near or slightly above average around mid-week. Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler this evening at 9 pm. The Delta Breeze will be slightly weaker on Tuesday and that will help temperatures to become slightly warmer in the valley.
On Tuesday an upper level trough currently located over the Idaho panhandle will move eastward and develop an area of convection over the high plains.
Dew points are in the low to middle 70s so temperatures will not likely drop much more overnight.
While an isolated shower remains possible on Tuesday along the MT/ND border, much of the forecast area is expected to remain dry as the upper level trough axis begins to lift downstream.
upper ridge remains over eastern half of CWA during the morning and shifts to our eastern edge by 18Z.
An upper ridge will build over the region on Tuesday with warming temperatures through the end of the week, and potentially less active weather.
The convection and associated wave noted across the High Plains is expected to remain west of the area through the overnight hours.
/Issued 159 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017/ Weak low pressure will develop off the coast during the week with overall light winds.
608 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1009mb low over southeast Minnesota with weak cold front trailing into Nebraska. As the low moves slowly eastward over the next 12-24 hours, the frontal boundary will sink southward and eventually stall across central Illinois by Tuesday morning.
As of 20z a low amplified trough is centered over the foothills of the Rockies. A deepening mid level trough was positioned across the western CONUS.
544 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE Drier air aloft continues to spread over New Mexico as an upper trof moves into the Great Basin. An upper level trough will deepen over the western United States through mid week steering drier air over New Mexico from the west.
712 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A trough of low pressure continued to move through the Northland this afternoon and will continue east and south overnight. Ridging will build in overnight leading to light winds and clearing skies.
Temperatures will gradually inch into the lower to middle 90s on Tuesday with heat index values approaching advisory criteria.
913 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A trough of low pressure over the western states will bring cooler weather and a deep marine layer through Tuesday.
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1009mb low over southeast Minnesota with weak cold front trailing into Nebraska. As the low moves slowly eastward over the next 12-24 hours, the frontal boundary will sink southward and eventually stall across central Illinois by Tuesday morning.
Gusty southwest winds will stick around through Monday evening as a low pressure system moves across the region. Broad trough will encompass the Great Basin through mid- week.
Weak high pressure will build over the area mid week. Showers will end from northwest to southeast Tue evening with a dry period Tue night into Wed night as high pressure builds to the north.
The highest chances will be across central and north central Oklahoma (KOKC, KOUN, KPNC), although still a low probability event elsewhere.
The models agree in keeping this Theta-e ridge axis confined to the southern Edwards plateau and adjacent portions of the Rio Grande plains through the short term portion of the forecast.
A trough of low pressure continued to move through the Northland this afternoon and will continue east and south overnight. Ridging will build in overnight leading to light winds and clearing skies.
/issued 242 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Broad mid-level ridging and deep subsidence aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions across deep south Texas through the period. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s under partly cloudy skies. Slightly warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday should support heat indices in the 109 to 113 range. Low temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the lower 80s across much of the area.
The cold front that progressed southward into central NC yesterday remains stalled over the region. Lows tonight in the lower/mid 70s, warmest S/SE. With the above in mind, will indicate a 50% chance of showers/storms across the area, primarily during the aft/eve hours, with highs in the mid 80s (N) to ~90F (S) and lows in the lower/mid 70s.
Near term guidance is in agreement that this feature will likely weaken and become sheared apart as it enters a region of increasingly confluent flow aloft between a 500-mb ridge centered across the FL peninsula and a trough at the same level digging into the Great Lakes region. the low-level jet is forecast to back to the southwest and strengthen in response to the movement of this feature -- and this should provide sufficient ascent for the generation of scattered light showers and patchy drizzle across the forecast area overnight. A tad warmer for the mid week, with highs warming back into the mid and upper 80s.
Area will remain under influence of upper level ridging, leading to hot and humid conditions.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 87 73 89 / 50 40 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 69 88 / 60 40 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 71 89 / 50 40 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 83 67 87 / 60 50 20 20.
/22/ Tonight and Tuesday: Mid level heights look to begin rising as ridge builds west across the northern Gulf of Mexico. With the moist conditions in place, think the increasing warmth will be initially slow to manifest, but Tuesday does look one or two degree warmer than today.
An upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific will keep the region under an upper level northwesterly flow through the next 24 to 36 hours. Low temps tonight will be cooler due to good radiative cooling in the dry low level air mass.
953 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017 The evening water vapor loop/00Z upper air analyses showed a mid/upper level trough axis over the Intermountain West. Most of the heavier convection has exited to the east of the CWA, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading northeast across central and southern Wyoming ahead of a slow moving cold front. Temps will be around 5-10 degrees cooler for tomorrow behind a weak fropa overnight.
18z guidance continues to show low level ridge axis across south FL into Tuesday with low level westerly flow.
S upper trof moves into western CO during the afternoon.
Temps will be around 5-10 degrees cooler for tomorrow behind a weak fropa overnight.
Broad ascent ahead of this trough in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere has resulted in a rather classic baroclinic leaf structure, evident in infrared and water vapor channels today. Guidance is in excellent agreement indicating the passage of this trough and associated vort max early in the afternoon - slightly too early to maximize the thunderstorm threat over the region. Dry air in the lower levels advecting in from the south will also temper the thunderstorm threat.
Northwest upper flow across southern Wisconsin with a ridge across the plains. High pressure across the upper Great Lakes and Wisconsin. Forecast soundings show a lot of dry air in the lower levels although just enough for scattered fair weather cumulus. With the high across the area tonight, some river valley fog possible, mainly in the Wisconsin river valley.
The majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted into south Alabama, near the mid level trof axis. Mostly clear skies overnight with a cooler and drier air mass advecting into the area. The upper-level pattern on Sunday will feature an unusually deep trough near the East Coast with an associated surface cold front in an east-west orientation across northern Gulf of Mexico.
351 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Synopsis: A strong area of low pressure is noted early this morning over the Mid-Atlantic States, with a front draped southwestward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The remnants of a ridge of high pressure are hanging on with the axis over the Florida Keys, with broad low level confluence over the eastern Gulf between the front and the ridge axis. Near term (today and tonight): The remnant ridge axis will continue to break down and shift southeast of the area, leaving the region in southwesterly flow from the surface to 400 mb, south of the eastern CONUS trough axis. Forecast soundings indicate mean winds in the lowest 3 km out of the southwest at 10-12 knots today, so the Atlantic sea breeze is likely to develop but struggle to move west of Interstate 95.
Otherwise current forecast on track with expected overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Strength and life span of the individual cells has been limited due to the low shear environment, with a lack of hail or strong wind reports as they passed through northeast Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening at all three terminals with CDS being favored for the highest chances. /issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/ The upper level high will remain nearly squared over the region today and tomorrow. An increase in thunderstorm coverage could occur on Saturday despite the upper ridge still being in place. This upper ridge will amplify and become more expansive covering much of the western CONUS beginning late in the weekend. The center of the ridge will redevelop over the Great Basin at 500mb.