Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps falling into the low/mid 20s during the day tomorrow will result in bigger impacts on the roads than we normally see with even light snow accumulations.
527 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 00Z TAFS High pressure centered over the region will result in clear skies and light winds through the TAF period. /issued 345 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure has shifted a little farther ewd today. now centered from the ern Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley to the lower Mississippi Valley. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place over the ern 2/3 of the country with several weak perturbations noted nearby and farther upstream, although our airmass is so dry only some mid-level cloud cover is occurring at this time across the far nern zones from the closest disturbance.
610 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 00Z TAF Cycle: VFR conditions with high cirrus expected for another 12 hours or so ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will quickly sweep through the Panhandles from around 09z-11z through about 14z-16z Monday morning. There is also increasing concern for some freezing fog or even some light freezing drizzle for a few hours behind the front which could reduce vsbys. Can't rule out a brief period of wind shear around 30 knots just ahead of the cold front. A strong cold front is expected to enter the Panhandles around 6 AM Monday morning.
255 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Clouds and light showers associated with the cold front moving along the Front Range is showing up well on visible satellite this afternoon on an otherwise mostly sunny day. A narrow ridge of high pressure will amplify overhead for Tuesday keeping conditions dry and sunny.
246 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure will maintain mostly clear skies overnight into Tuesday.
High pressure of ~1052mb over Montana will be pushing into the northern Plains behind the front by Tuesday morning. Broad positive tilt trough continues to develop on water vapor imagery with upper low over the Great Lakes and vorticity max/jet streak coming down through the Plains. The 12Z NAM and GFS seem to be hinting at freezing temperatures occurring sooner in the day. but changes are expected later this afternoon/tonight with the passage of a strong arctic cold front.
305 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure will crest north of the area tonight.
A deep trough and associated frontal boundary will move through the TN Valley tonight through Tuesday. The axis of the trough will move through the TN Valley through the afternoon.
Strong high pressure is building our way from southern Saskatchewan and northeastern MT, while low pressure continues to exit across WI/IL. This high will sink across central SD around daybreak Tuesday, and keep a ridge over our eastern counties during the day Tuesday while it moves into eastern KS. Have continued their mention in the forecast by keeping an area of higher cloud cover, as well as at least a small area of flurries over eastern Stanley and portions of northern Jones/Lyman Counties, downwind of the warmer open water. However, did break up the WSW and HWO to mention timing of the the lowest/most dangerous wind chill values. Deep trof over the eastern conus gets pushed east as energy crashes the western conus ridge.
1134 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Another band of snow is quickly shifting south across Kansas and Missouri early this morning as a surge of cold air sweeps into the Lower Missouri River Valley. The trough in place across the center of the Nation, responsible for our cold weather, will remain in place for a couple of days, allowing a good blast of arctic air to waft across the Plains States.
314 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Arctic high pressure will build southeast across central South Dakota overnight and down into the Southern Plains Tuesday. The latest guidance shows temperatures ranging from the upper single digits across our far east, to the lower 20s over the far west.
Meanwhile, the freezing drizzle has pretty much ended, except perhaps over the higher reaches of the Palmer Divide in the lower foothills of Jefferson and Douglas Counties. That too should end in the next hour or so as the high plains cold air mass deepens. In the high country, clearing already well underway. This system really had little impact on areas west of the Cont Divide, Areas of Freezing drizzle refuse to change over to snow in and around Denver to the Palmer Divide so have issued a short fuse advisory. As for the higher terrain areas light snow will focus mainly on the east facing slopes thru midday. Fairly strong northerly flow aloft on Tuesday will gradually decrease becoming weak by Tuesday night as an upper ridge moves into Colorado.
227 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Deep northerly fetch of dry and bitter cold Arctic air on the Pacific side of a broad Great Lakes cyclone will continue to spread south over the forecast area during the next 24 hours. Tuesday high temperatures on the plains under clear/mostly clear skies as much as 15 to 18 degs f warmer than those today.
The trough axis will stretch west across the forecast area, under a deep cyclonic flow, so much of southern Wisconsin will stay in the light snow into the evening.
An upper-level closed low will drop southward over the Great Lakes region tonight and Tuesday, with a southwest flow aloft over Florida. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer, ranging in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs.
314 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Low pressure near Detroit will move off to the east tonight while weakening to leave a trough hanging back into Lake Erie through Tuesday.
/issued 540 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ MVFR ceilings will arrive from the north this morning behind a cold front. /issued 535 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ MVFR ceilings will arrive from the north this morning behind a cold front. Later today there remains a chance for light freezing rain, sleet, or snow to change to snow this evening in southeastern Oklahoma as the wave exits that region. The cold front that will pass coincidentally will bring in much colder air today. Maximum temperatures in north central OK will be aroudn 20 degrees while southwest Oklahoma will be just below freezing.
/issued 536 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ /12Z TAFS/ All 5 terminals will start out at VFR conditions before deteriorating later today as a strong cold front moves through the region. Light rain that transitions to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible for all of the terminals. /issued 517 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ (Today and Tonight) The main story for today and tonight is the passage of a strong cold front which will bring in much colder temperatures and a chance for wintry precipitation.
Wed & Wed Night: Temps will begin to recover as the weakening high pressure center drifts just east of KS to enable southerly winds (albeit 5 to 15 mph) to return. This would drag a cold front SE across most of KS late Sat Night & Sun Morning.
254 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Arctic high pressure will build into Plains tonight. As a result, wind speeds on the back side of this high pressure system will drop off quickly and allow for strong radiational cooling to take place across areas east of the Laramie Range.
1139 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 VFR category conditions at the TAF sites this afternoon will continue through tonight before conditions begin to deteriorate Tuesday morning with the approach and eventual passage of a strong cold front.
347 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 A clipper type low pressure system will move into the area overnight and remain through Tuesday evening, bringing light snow to the region. High pressure situated off the New England coast will slow the progression of the surface therefore prolonging the period of light snow over northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills.
408 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: High pressure building south and east is gradually veering flow to the north-northeast this afternoon. Overnight lows will be warmer ranging from the upper 40s and low 50s over the interior and Gulf coast to low 60s along the east coast.
A closer look at the wet bulb soundings shows that wet bulb freezing heights at 21z will be around 1000 ft agl.
1111 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 A deep trough of low pressure will drop into the Plains and upper Midwest/Great Lakes area today, with the western edge skirting down the Front Range in a northerly flow. This will bring much colder air down the eastern side of the divide, with some of this cooler air spilling over into northwest Colorado. A narrow ridge of high pressure then slides over the region for Tuesday with dry conditions and continued above seasonal temperatures.
257 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 The expected cold front has made its way south of the FA and has brought with it much cooler and windy conditions.
340 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 (Tonight) Area of light snow has moved to the southeast of the area with decreasing clouds well behind the surface cold front. Northwest winds will lighten up a bit tonight but still remain on the order of 10-15mph and that combined with the low temperatures near zero will yield wind chill values of -15 to -20F for much of the area. Gosselin Despite upper level trof sliding through region Tuesday night, will only see an increase in clouds with its passage.
Temperatures are falling to freezing across Oklahoma and are well down into the teens across Kansas so the cold air is on schedule to arrive this evening and overnight. Still appears to be a mixture of light freezing rain and sleet. For much of the area, totals will be light and impacts will be fairly small and consists of some icy spots on bridges and overpasses. Again, freezing rain and sleet look the most likely based on soundings, although a changeover to a little snow is possible after 12Z Tuesday morning. Temperatures may actually climb above freezing across the northern Big Country, with other areas seeing readings close to the 30 degree mark.
The most significant influence on local temperature and precipitation trends then becomes a broad ridge building over the Plains.
306 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 The cold front is currently located near the I-20 corridor and is rapidly moving south. The earlier frontal passage will mean the elevated warm layer will be more eroded by cold air advection and the threat for freezing rain may be reduced, with sleet or snow being the more likely precip type. This may not have too much of an impact though because models have been showing less precip occurring in our CWA with only a few hundredths liquid equivalent falling in the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. The clearing may not come soon enough to affect temps much so prefer the cooler MET for Tue highs.
A deep upper level trough covers most of the eastern half of the country and the flow over Texas is from the northwest. A cold front was stretched across north Texas this afternoon. The cold air will move in in a shallow layer making freezing rain and sleet likely. South or this line precip will remain freezing rain and sleet. Temperatures Tuesday will be steady through the day with only the southern counties getting above freezing.
The stratus and fog will be slow to dissipate on Tuesday and may linger in the valleys and basins longer than now expected with rather light wind aloft as high pressure will dominate.
VFR conditions will remain through the night while high pressure moves east and a frontal boundary approaches the area. Moisture increases in the low and mid levels through the early morning.
Winds will remain light and generally out of the east through Tuesday morning, before gradually turning northwestward and increasing Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the area. High pressure will dominate the area today with light northeasterly surface winds and mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 50s across the northern areas to the mid and upper 50s across the southern areas.
345 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Ample cold advection beneath the western rim of a deep midlevel cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region continues across the Great Plains. For late this week into the the upcoming weekend, the upper-level wave pattern over the CONUS will initially de-amplify before medium-range model guidance indicates mean troughing becoming established over the western/central states. In response to these developments, the boundary layer should be warming by mid/late week while lee troughing becomes established over portions of the High Plains.
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Aviation A slow moving low pressure system will bring occasional snow through Tuesday. Widespread, generally light, snow expected to persist today as upper low currently over MN continues dropping to the south- southeast.
This is as a result of pretty stable conditions under a high pressure ridge. Otherwise the region will be under the influence of high pressure today and much of Tuesday. This will also result in inversions in the lower valleys of the NR. The ridge will break down as a weak disturbance passes through the area late Tuesday afternoon and night. This system will weaken as it moves through the ridge.
142 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will remain in control of the region into Tuesday.
1217 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 The weak cold front bringing the rain and snow to the Front Range is bringing more cloud cover than originally thought to our northern areas. A deep trough of low pressure will drop into the Plains and upper Midwest/Great Lakes area today, with the western edge skirting down the Front Range in a northerly flow. This will bring much colder air down the eastern side of the divide, with some of this cooler air spilling over into northwest Colorado. A narrow ridge of high pressure then slides over the region for Tuesday with dry conditions and continued above seasonal temperatures.
1211 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 A clipper will round the Lower Great Lakes today before weakening as it pulls away Tuesday. High pressure from south- central Canada will make its way to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys for mid week. Weakening low is slow to exit and toward the end of Tuesday afternoon wrap around moisture/trough will be nearing northwest OH. As far as temperatures go, enough warm advection will bring temperatures up into the lower/mid 20s today. A trough will swing across Lake Erie on Tuesday night with increasing low level moisture. Would expect some snow showers to accompany the trough but Lake Erie is mostly iced over except for the far eastern end so moisture flux will be greatly limited.
257 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 For the 15/18Z terminal forecast will be prevailing many of the sites with VFR flight categories to start the forecast, but with the rapid approach of the cold Arctic cold front near Interstate 30, conditions will be transitioning to MVFR with mention of light rain. In wake of the front temperatures on the surface and aloft will be cooling with the precipitation mixing briefly with freezing rain/sleet and then followed by a complete change over to snow. Switching gears quickly to the impending winter weather event on the horizon, Arctic cold front continues to quickly push southward across central sections of Oklahoma and Arkansas.
905 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 High pressure will move east tonight. A warm front will slowly cross the region later Thursday into Thursday night.
A cold front approaching from the west and northwest will allow much drier and windier conditions to move into the region after sunrise Thurs.
A cold front will move through South Texas during the afternoon, with northwest winds increasing. Confident in a gale condition at least over the offshore coastal waters Thursday night (given warmer SST values per the SPoRT SST Composite product and the SREF probabilities.
Interestingly, some KY Mesonet stations in eastern Kentucky have dropped into the low 40s. The Richmond and Jackson area mesonet sites are both in the low 40s with a calm wind. Thursday night the northern and southern streams will phase, pushing an upper trof axis and strong cold front into the Lower Ohio Valley.
618 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018 01z surface analysis showed cold front racing through NE, well south of the CWA. Current surface analysis shows cold front now exiting far southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area, with much colder air quickly pushing in behind it. Thursday will be cold and dry with highs ranging from the single digits over northwest SD to the 20s over the higher elevations of northeast WY and the Black Hills.
Even greater potential for fog exists in locations that saw rainfall today which would put the highest confidence along and west of I-4. The mid-upper level low will continue to weaken with temps aloft warming. Weak inverted trough is forecast to lift slowly northward and shunt tight pressure gradient north of our waters this evening.
Gusts to 35-40 kts at GFK for the highest. 60 inches, which would lead to an area of 5 to 8 inches of snow (given stronger winds snow ratios should be toward the lower end of the spectrum). High pressure overhead Fri night will offer optimum radiative cooling conditions and resultant low temps colder than 20 below throughout the forecast area. Some warm air advection Sun will allow for daytime highs edging over the zero degree mark as a trough swings down within the NW flow aloft. This will be followed by a second instance of potential snowfall for Sun, associated with the previously mentioned upper trough and modest warm air advection. By Wed western ridging will edge closer to our area, bumping temps up toward or beyond seasonal expectations.
Fog could become locally dense at times before a warm front moves in from the south and/or a cold front sweeps in from the west. Southeast MN and northeast IA will have the higher impacts. Cold air returns for the upcoming weekend, post the departing cold front/storm system, and looks to hang around for the early part of the new work week.
The taste of winter felt over the past 24 hours will be brief as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the area and dominates weather for the next several days. A weak pressure gradient under the ridge will also promote light winds through the weekend. An exiting low pressure system will continue to bring isolated to scattered rain and snow showers over higher terrain tonight, greatest activity over far eastern zones.
923 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 High pressure will be North/Northeast of the region Tonight continuing the moist onshore flow. Weak coastal troughing will continue the chance for showers to move ashore. High pressure will be North/Northeast of the region Tonight. The potential for dense fog over the nearshore waters will exist Tonight as relatively warm air continues to flow over the cooler ocean waters.
529 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 IFR/LIFR conditions expected overnight into Thursday ahead of a cold front that will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region on Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds to begin increasing tomorrow ahead of deepening upper trough into southern plains. Decent lapse rates for this time of year, along with deep moisture and moderate low lvl wind shear will allow for a few tstms in aftn just ahead of stg arctic cold front entering Red River valley region by mid to late aftn.
606 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 High pressure will move east tonight. A warm front will slowly cross the region later Thursday into Thursday night.
These locations should remain largely decoupled for the remainder of the night with high pressure centered to the east of the area dominating. Elsewhere overnight lows will be downright balmy with temperatures only falling to the lower 50s.
556 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 A deep mid/upper level trough is making its way across the western CONUS and will approach Kansas front the southwest this evening and into the early morning hours tomorrow. Latest model runs are generally trending toward the trough digging further south and at a slower pace. Model soundings are in general consensus that the event will begin as a few rain showers this afternoon and evening, but switch over to snow around the midnight hour in central Kansas as a strong cold front plunges southward. Ahead of the snowfall, rain and areas of brief freezing rain are expected before making the transition over to snow.
The warm front that will bring precipitation to the region later tonight through tomorrow is taking shape to our southwest. This will be a close call in the valleys - whether we get a brief period of snow or freezing rain before turning to rain. At this time, temps are several degrees above freezing and there is ample cloud cover. With winds expected to increase overnight, we believe it will be difficult to get much below freezing and end up with a dangerous icing event.
1044 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 Currently - A nearly cut-off upper level trough is centered over the Florida Keys. However, surface flow is fairly weak, with high pressure held back to our north and a baggy pressure pattern nearer the Keys. Short Term Update - The upper level trough will become more cut- off through the overnight period while it meanders eastwards. This will bring in warmer and drier mid through upper level air. A relatively unstable environment remains in place and a few strong showers and thunderstorms are possible, with the strongest activity over the warmer Florida Straits.
DML Areas of dense sea fog will continue to develop over the coastal waters tonight and continue through mid-morning Thursday as warm, moist air is transported over the cooler waters.
Will continue highlights for the interior mountain zones of western Colorado with the main activity pushing southeast across the region behind the cold front.
630 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 The low clouds and fog continue over much of the area to start the forecast, and will hold or lower a bit more Wednesday night. Tonight Through Thursday Upper low pressures are near Florida and over the Rockies. The western low will move into the Plains tonight and a secondary trough will move into Arkansas Thursday. Rain chances will slowly increase tonight, then more so during the day Thursday as the second trough approaches.
Strong cold front arrives ~15Z at the NE OK TAF sites, ~18Z at the far NW AR/SE OK sites, and at KFSM by 21Z. Lift with the front will likely bring a period of dz and then fzdz and maybe some sleet when temps drop below freezing behind the front. Strong cold front will push into northeast Oklahoma by mid morning Thursday, moving to the Interstate 44 corridor around Noon. Temperatures behind the front will quickly fall below freezing with a brief window for a light wintry mix directly behind the boundary. As main upper trough axis moves across Thursday afternoon, a band of light snow will spread into northeast Oklahoma. Any freezing rain that develops should also be light with only a few hundredths possible across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
601 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 The anticipated freezing drizzle has developed across portions of the area from Aberdeen to Miller. An area of low pressure and Arctic front will continue tracking across the region tonight through Thursday morning. Radar returns in central Nebraska will track northeast tonight with the upper level trough.
431 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows cold front now exiting far southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area, with much colder air quickly pushing in behind it. Thursday will be cold and dry with highs ranging from the single digits over northwest SD to the 20s over the higher elevations of northeast WY and the Black Hills.
Confident in a gale condition at least over the offshore coastal waters Thursday night (given warmer SST values per the SPoRT SST Composite product and the SREF probabilities.