Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
144 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Expect calm quiescent weather to last throughout the rest of this week as high pressure will remain overhead.
Elsewhere, the rest of the CWA should expect mostly sunny skies with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s. Anomalously strong upper ridge extending roughly from Houston to Evansville to Detroit will continue to amplify over the next 24 hrs, with the more northern portion retrograding toward the I-55 corridor. Blocking mid-level pattern remains in place for the second half of the work week characterized by above-normal temperatures in the Ohio Valley. Then, the retrograding closed low will move clockwise over the Southeast US while eroding the anomalous ridge. Eventually, a more progressive flow will see the previously-stalled West Coast trough advance to the east and lift what energy is left over from the closed low.
As the low, and the associated front, continue to push north Wednesday night, may see some additional development across the northern half of the CWA, but lesser chances for severe storms during the overnight hours as the CAPE diminishes significantly. Lows Wednesday night will be range from the lower 50s across north central South Dakota to the lower 60s across northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
230 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Ridge of high pressure will hold across SE MI and will maintain VFR conditions through the day. Otherwise, the expansion of a strong upper ridge will continue into midweek in response to an organizing western CONUS trough.
1036 AM PDT Tue May 10 2022 Today and Wednesday will continue to be cooler than average with widely scattered showers mainly over the mountains. Another bout of temperatures near freezing is likely tonight across much of north Idaho and portions of eastern Washington.
/issued 1018 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ Low ceilings are more prevalent across west TN and northeast MS this morning, keeping temperatures 5-8 degrees cooler than sites along and west of the MS River. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today with highs in the mid 80s to near 90F. /issued 352 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ Upper-level ridging will prevail for the next few days across the Mid- South. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a weak disturbance on the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow. Highs by midweek increase to the low 90s with lows in the 70s.
905 AM PDT Tue May 10 2022 Through Wednesday, a low pressure system moving inland through the southwestern states will maintain cool onshore flow with periods of stronger and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts.
347 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 The anomalous upper-level ridge will gradually weaken during the latter half of the week as a deep, closed low retrogrades across the southeast CONUS.
The region will be centered between a large upper level across the western Atlantic and a large upper level ridge across the central portions of the US.
Near the dryline on the higher terrain of west Texas and Panhandle, model signals continue to indicate possibility of at least scattered severe storm development. Trends of the high res models are delaying initiation and area coverage, but some storm development still looks probable with forcing aided by low amplitude s/wv trough progressing northward from northern Mexico (evident on water vapor and initation of Big Bend convection). With backed lower level flow ahead of approaching l/wv trough, thermal trough shifts westward, and with potential for added cloud cover tomorrow, temperatures will be much closer to average than the past few hot days. A few of the models want to redevelop convection over the Panhandles again tomorrow with another minor disturbance ejecting around trough, so low pops will be retained across northwest Oklahoma from NBM initializations.
1128 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 The center of low pressure located over the West Coast will drift southward today causing heights to rise over our area. Through the overnight and tomorrow the low pressure begins to shift eastward causing the pressure gradient to tighten. By the evening the low pressure begins to lift over the region as a negatively tilted trough. Tomorrow night the trough lifts overhead and pushes a cold front through the area.
337 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Wednesday.
Updated forecast will make minor adjusts to high temps along the western periphery of the low clouds and increase cloud cover elsewhere through early afternoon.
The morning clouds will slow warming like today but expect that with clearing most spots should reach into the low to mid 80s with high 80s possible across the western counties. The continued unseasonably high low level moisture will keep temperatures mild through the night with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area.
A large upper level ridge centered over the Mississippi Valley continues to dominate through Wednesday as an upper low meanders over the western Atlantic. Surface ridging also extends into the area from the Appalachians, but will weaken through the period. With the area being under the influence of the upper ridge and a generally subsident pattern, conditions will remain dry into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be above normal for this time of year given the sunny conditions and the dominating upper ridge. Lows will not be much relief with temperatures falling generally into the lower to mid 60s tonight. Wednesday will be even warmer given the more limited cloud cover with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sea-breeze development along the coast may help to keep temperatures in the lower to mid 80s both afternoons.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): An omega blocking pattern over the United States through the Short Term period will keep us relatively dry and warm still as a ridge is situated over Texas. Tonight will be another muggy night with lows in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. As for tomorrow, highs are slightly cooler than today in the lower 90s. Wednesday night will be about the same as tonight with slightly cooler dewpoints in the lower 70s.
336 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 An upper trough will continue to slowly dive south from the Pacific Northwest south through California today and tonight before starting east tomorrow afternoon.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 88 60 86 61 / 0 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 85 56 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 57 83 58 / 0 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 82 51 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Mid level energy will drop south in the established upper ridge and may spark some shower activity late tonight or early Wednesday. The next chance of precipitation will be this weekend with the arrival of an upper level low from the east. Cloud cover has decreased significantly over the IN/OH border this afternoon as dry air mixed in with the increased moisture in the lower atmosphere. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s in the west to lower 50s in the eastern Scioto Vally and the Hocking Hills where cloud cover is not expected and winds go light and variable. Ridging remains in place and cloud cover early in the day will dissipate in the afternoon in favor of just some fair wx cu. Highs will be similar to today with lower 80s, just a touch warmer.
1148 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Upper low was situated off the northern CA coast with a trough axis to the south. A high amplitude upper ridge reached from the west/central Gulf Coast into eastern Canada.
Outside of this, broad ridging remains in place keeping hot conditions for the rest of today and Wednesday. Drier conditions are expected for tomorrow which should allow Wednesday night lows to be noticeably cooler, with lows in the lower 70s inland to mid-upper 70s along the immediate coast.
For the last several days, we've been highlighting the chances for afternoon highs to creep towards record values as an upper level high asserts its dominance in the region. The ridge axis is still west of us and likely will be tomorrow. This means we'll be in a weak northerly flow on the east side of the ridge and I think we're going to run the risk of at least a shower, maybe even a thunderstorm or two west of I-65 during the morning hours tomorrow. Freezing levels are high, so I don't know that we'll be able to even get small hail to the ground, but it's worth the thunder mention.
107 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 It's been a breezy day across the area this afternoon with low pressure over Sask that is moving east into Manitoba.
132 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Wednesday.
Mainly dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through the end of the week as a strong upper level ridge continues to build over the Great Lakes region. Convection will likely fire along a cold front late this afternoon into this evening in Wisconsin. Building diurnal instability could allow for an isolated PM storm to develop in the vicinity of this discontinuity and any leftover outflow boundaries, though opted for a "silent" 10 PoP given the ongoing ridging/capping and associated large scale subsidence.
This Evening/Tonight Currently, a strong upper-level ridge is centered near the Mississippi River Valley with 500mb heights in excess of 5,900 meters. At the surface, high pressure remains in control across the eastern CONUS with MSLP of near 1,025mb. Wednesday Heading into Wednesday, the ridge will begin to break down as a closed low in the southern Atlantic approaches the coast. Overall, the pattern will remain largely the same locally with dry air in the low-levels remaining in northeastern portions of the area.
Another hot day is forecast on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Otherwise, moisture and instability associated with a large upper trough will lead to another round of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over the higher elevations this afternoon.
135 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure extends from New England into the Mid Atlantic.
Over the weekend the main upper system is lifted Nward with residual troughiness into the Gulf. The pressure gradient over the E Gulf to tighten as a low pressure system approaching the NE FL coast with periods of breezy NE-E winds and SCEC to SCA conditions likely.
Dry and warmer weather returns beginning Wednesday. Water vapor imagery clearly shows the low that brought showers to the region yesterday is now centered over interior Northern California late this morning. HRRR and NAM high resolution model guidance show less shower coverage when compared to yesterday, however with the low centered over the region, isolated cells may produce more hail today. Cool temperatures running about 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday are also being observed.
Mid level energy will drop south in the established upper ridge and may spark some shower activity late tonight or early Wednesday. The next chance of precipitation will be this weekend with the arrival of an upper level low from the east. Some mid level energy will undercut the established ridge in place over the Ohio Valley today, combining with increased lower level moisture to bring some cloud cover to western reaches of the CWA. South to southeast flow at the surface and increasing heights will help temperatures to rise into the lower 80s. Ridging remains in place tonight. Lows will be several degrees warmer ranging from the low 50s east to the low 60s west.
1243 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Warmer weather has returned to the region with a vengeance as the upper level ridge continues to build over the region.
Mid level heights will continue to rise as a ridge strengthens over the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. Minor differences include a slight westward shift of the upper ridge. But any minor ripple about the ridge or other subtle forcing mechanism could trigger isolated convection late tonight through Wednesday evening. Despite the H5 ridge exceeding 590 dm, temps will be around -10C, with lapse rates exceeding 7 C/KM H7-H5. For now despite the limited chance, we will hold on a PoP introduction as confidence is still on the low side.
246 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 It's been a breezy day across the area this afternoon with low pressure over Sask that is moving east into Manitoba.
329 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Much of the 12Z guidance continues to generate some light QPF over the region late tonight into Wednesday morning, right under the upper ridge. Dewpoints have held up pretty well in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon and guidance has trended upward into the lower 70s over much of the area Wednesday afternoon. If temperatures reach the lower 90s, a few locations mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may briefly reach triple digit heat indices. The primary fly in the ointment will be some a slight chance of showers in the morning and a slight chance of showers and storms in the afternoon as winds become southeasterly and a dry line/cold front enters the region from the east.
High pressure will be north of the region, as an area of low pressure east of the Carolinas slowly moves south across the western Atlantic.
At the surface, there is a weak high pressure over the southern Appalachians, and stronger high pressure over upper New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Some scattered precip is possible west of our forecast area during the afternoon associated with the previously mentioned weak disturbance, and some of the hi-res guidance suggests that some light precip may try to sneak into the Cumberland basin, however any precip will be battling dry air in the low levels, so for this forecast held Pops below 15% over that region. Afternoon high temps will be in the lower to mid 80s.
242 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 With high pressure in control of the weather, expect tranquil weather this evening and overnight as cloud cover dissipates.
419 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 A vertically stacked cyclone off the Carolina Coast, along with a ridge extending down the Atlantic states and into the Gulf of Mexico, continues to push a drier air mass down through Florida and the Keys. This northerly trajectory has brought in somewhat cooler air, and temperature are a couple degrees below seasonal norms. The northerly component to our flow will continue to push drier and slightly cooler air down across the region, while remaining on the subsident flank of the nearing low.
Models continue to show some light PoP trying to spark as some energy runs down the east side of the upper ridge.
Thereafter, the winds will decrease but temperatures will heat up as high pressure builds through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal. Upper low over northern California will slowly sink south through tonight.
424 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Expect calm quiescent weather to last throughout the rest of this week as high pressure will remain overhead.
236 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 /Updated at 1146 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ The forecast area remains under the influence of mid-level ridging centered over Southeast Texas. An Omega pattern has developed aloft with an upper low over the Pacific Northwest and another upper low off the North Carolina coastline. Moisture in the lower levels will continue to support clouds west and northwest but will not support any precipitation.
With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, do not expect lows to fall much below that in parts of the eastern Ozarks. Did not deviate much from going highs tomorrow in the lower 90s tomorrow given 850mb forecast around 18C and southerly winds. Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will likely see peak index readings of 95-100 degrees. Latest water vapor is showing a large upper ridge extending from the southern High Plains into the western Great Lakes.
-----BMickelson Previous discussion: It's been a breezy day across the area this afternoon with low pressure over Sask that is moving east into Manitoba.
749 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Wednesday.
/issued 348 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ The anomalous upper-level ridge will gradually weaken during the latter half of the week as a deep, closed low retrogrades across the southeast CONUS.
Between this surface ridging and the large closed low offshore of the Carolinas, very dry air continues to filter into the area, aided by the northeasterly flow regime. Over the weekend the main upper system is lifted Nward with residual troughiness into the Gulf. The pressure gradient over the E Gulf to tighten as a low pressure system approaching the NE FL coast with periods of breezy NE-E winds and SCEC to SCA conditions likely.
720 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Expect calm quiescent weather to last throughout the rest of this week as high pressure will remain overhead.
943 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Surface analysis late this evening shows Indiana caught between high pressure centered over the deep south and a weak trough of low pressure stretching from Eastern WI to Central KS and the TX panhandle. Aloft water vapor showed a large area of high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi valley with a ridge extending north and east across Indiana to southern Ontario. Little change is expected overnight as high pressure along with ridging aloft is expected to remain in place. The morning clouds will slow warming like today but expect that with clearing most spots should reach into the low to mid 80s with high 80s possible across the western counties. The continued unseasonably high low level moisture will keep temperatures mild through the night with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area.
1042 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Expect calm quiescent weather to last throughout the rest of this week as high pressure will remain overhead.
The low temperature forecast was lowered by 1-3 degrees across the area given clear skies and light winds overnight, but no other changes were made. The region will be centered between a large upper level across the western Atlantic and a large upper level ridge across the central portions of the US.
Pressure gradient btwn this low and high pressure ridge extending down the Appalachians will continue to produce a northerly wind component across EC FL the next 24 hours.
/issued 311 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): An omega blocking pattern over the United States through the Short Term period will keep us relatively dry and warm still as a ridge is situated over Texas. Tonight will be another muggy night with lows in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. As for tomorrow, highs are slightly cooler than today in the lower 90s. Wednesday night will be about the same as tonight with slightly cooler dewpoints in the lower 70s.
/Updated at 1146 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ The forecast area remains under the influence of mid-level ridging centered over Southeast Texas. An Omega pattern has developed aloft with an upper low over the Pacific Northwest and another upper low off the North Carolina coastline. Moisture in the lower levels will continue to support clouds west and northwest but will not support any precipitation.
Cloud cover will be maintained overnight as a trough continues to deepen over Nevada, limiting the development of fog across the CWA. Most locations across the Snake Plain will see overnight lows above freezing, as confirmed by ensembles and probabilistic data. Another round of showers will develop east of the trough axis across southwest Idaho Wednesday afternoon, primarily over higher terrain. Isolated snow showers over the higher terrain ending by 06z.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 87 61 86 61 / 0 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 85 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 86 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 82 51 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 10.
(The rest of tonight) Sfc winds becoming a little more easterly will advect slightly drier air into the region tonight and into tomorrow, which will result in overnight low temperatures a little cooler than what has been observed the last few nights.
Thereafter, the winds will decrease but temperatures will heat up as high pressure builds through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal.
559 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 With high pressure in control of the weather, expect tranquil weather this evening and overnight as cloud cover dissipates.
A line of convergence north of the Lower Keys was able to produce a few low-topped showers below the inversion, which brought a nice spritz to a few island communities. With temperatures dropping below normal into the lower to mid 70s, a pleasant night is on tap for the Florida Keys! There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
(Tonight) Mostly clear skies will continue throughout the overnight hours with an upper level ridge located to the west. This high low-level moisture coupled with light winds and clear skies will lead to patchy fog developing later tonight.
720 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 High pressure extends from New England into the Mid Atlantic.
603 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 An upper trough will continue to slowly dive south from the Pacific Northwest south through California today and tonight before starting east tomorrow afternoon.
Clear skies and light winds across the interior will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s across the interior and the low to mid 60s towards the beaches. High pressure will be north of the region, as an area of low pressure east of the Carolinas slowly moves south across the western Atlantic.
926 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Sfc ridging remains anchored well east of our region this evening with the tighter sfc pressure gradient well to our west. Hourly temperatures are running some 1 to 3 degrees cooler at 9 pm compared to this time last night and this trend should allow for slightly cooler temperatures than what we saw this morning.
Meanwhile, an upper trough is continuing to dig over Northern CA. Current thinking is that the remnant MCS will continue to dissipate as it lifts northeast with the higher wind gusts staying just west of our forecast area. This afternoon storms are still expected to develop out over far Western KS as rich low level moisture continues to funnel into the highs elevations. Above normal temperatures will once again be in lace area wide, but will be a couple degrees cooler than Tue. Upper ridging will strengthen over the southern High Plains For Sun into the start of the work week with northwest flow setting up over the area.
With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, do not expect lows to fall much below that in parts of the eastern Ozarks. Did not deviate much from going highs tomorrow in the lower 90s tomorrow given 850mb forecast around 18C and southerly winds. Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will likely see peak index readings of 95-100 degrees. Latest water vapor is showing a large upper ridge extending from the southern High Plains into the western Great Lakes. Britt There is general agreement in the global models that the upper ridge will remain over Missouri and Illinois Thursday and Thursday night.
Given a substantial dew point gradient across the Lower Peninsula (richer low level moisture across western portions of the state) and 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, a few storms may persist but inland extent will be limited and coverage will be small since the storms are fighting drier air above 700 mb and upper level ridging.
1043 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 (Tonight) Mostly clear skies will continue throughout the overnight hours with an upper level ridge located to the west. This high low-level moisture coupled with light winds and clear skies will lead to patchy fog developing later tonight. An upper-level ridge axis will become amplified over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in mostly sunny skies and warm/dry weather. Strong subsidence from the ridge will suppress convection and limit cloud cover to a weak afternoon Cu field.
Today Through Thursday Night The upper level ridge will be near it's peak strength over AR today. The upper level ridge will weaken some for Thu. This may allow peak heat index values to be a couple deg cooler as a result. Looks like the dry and hot period will come to an end just beyond the short term period as the upper level ridge continues to decay.