Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 High pressure will give way to a weak cold front tonight. This will be followed by another high pressure that will dominate through the weekend. The high pressure will extend southward into NC this morning, then shift offshore this afternoon. The increase in cloudiness will be associated with the approaching but weakening cold front to our west.
High pressure ridge overhead, near calm winds and low level moisture setting the stage for areas of dense fog again towards sunrise and will likely need to issue Special Weather Statement to address this development. Weak High pressure ridge remains in place with dry and mild conds once again with sunny skies following the dissipation of fog by the late morning hours. High pressure over the area will keep mild weather conditions in place. A weak cold front will stall/wash out across south central Georgia on Friday.
339 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Trough axis is entering the western Great Lakes early this morning. Models show some low to mid level theta-e advection being brought in under southwest flow ahead of the trough between 07-12Z, which will work to saturate the environment. The active wave pattern we have seen over the last several days will come to an end through the weekend as mostly zonal mid level flow and high pressure take over. This will keep temperatures pretty steady in the 40s with lows in the lower 30s.
A weak cold front, tomorrow afternoon, will produce light winds from the northeast at the Abilene and San Angelo terminals. A dry air mass and slightly cooler temperatures have settled in across the area in the wake of a weak cold front. In fact, highs may be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs pushing near the 70 degree mark in some locations.
Despite a cooler air mass in place today, still anticipate above normal temps around 50 for most locations. Rodriguez 251 AM CST High pressure expected to be in place Friday, but then slide to the east by the start of the weekend.
1037 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 06Z TAF issuance VFR conditions will continue even as a weak cold front moves through around sunrise.
213 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Cold front Thursday/early Thursday night. High pressure for the weekend.
Other than a wind shift and reinforcing the cooler air already in place, the front will have little impact. Temperatures will be similar to today, in the lower 50s.
Dewpoints have fallen into the mid-upper 40s in nw Harris County but are still in the lower 60s closer to Galveston Bay and the immediate coast. Main forecast concerns will be for areas generally along and south of a weak stationary cold front. A reinforcing surge of cooler/drier air is progged to finally push this stalled front off the coast tomorrow morning.
857 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2017 Drier weather is expected to temporarily move into the Inland Northwest tonight as weak high pressure builds over the area.
Decreasing clouds are then expected for Thursday with high pressure settling across the central Plains. Although models indicate a few weak short wave troughs shearing east through the region, lift and moisture look too limited to include any precipitation chances.
Light winds tonight and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall down near around freezing.
912 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper trough over Mexico keeping WSW flow aloft over the Gulf and state this morning. Cold front sagging into N FL and Northern Gulf. Slightly cooler and drier conditions for Saturday expected.
As winds start to turn around to the southwest and bring in some warmer, dry air; RH values are expected to fall into the upper teens and lower 20s across western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. There's fairly good model agreement showing an upper low over the California baja being kicked out on Saturday and bringing precipitation to Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma Saturday night.
High clouds ahead of a cold front have helped to limit LIFR this morning to portions of the Umpqua Valley, including KRBG, the lower portions of the Rogue Valley around Grants Pass, and the Illinois Valley. Nothing really has changed from previous model runs as this trough is expected to move through rather quickly and destabilize the air mass. This should 'air' out the valley and allow the pollution to move eastward with the trough. The day shift also noted that cold air trapped in the valleys ahead of the cold front could produce isolated freezing rain in some areas. After this trough, a dirty ridge builds in with a rather active pattern to the north near Washington through the weekend.
406 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Pockets of freezing fog and low stratus impacting visibility have once again developed across the valleys overnight, although passing high clouds have kept the fog from becoming widespread. A cold front is on track to head into northwest Montana late this morning/early afternoon, which may initially bring light freezing rain to some of the northwest MT valleys before turning to all snow.
Ongoing elevated nrly flow should linger into the afternoon before diminishing as high pressure builds over the region. The cold front producing the mess offshore is currently analyzed bisecting the coast across southeast Louisiana and is progged to stall a couple hundred miles offshore by tonight. In the wake of the front, high pressure will briefly settle over the region tonight.
725 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure shifts east today. Weak low pressure to our north and south will provide clouds, and maybe a few snow showers or flurries Friday night into early Saturday.
A cold front over NE FL this morning will slide South of the region this afternoon, which will continue to produce isolated showers along and ahead of it. A secondary trough will move Southeast across SE GA this afternoon, which could also produce a few showers there. Expected cloud coverage and cold advection over SE GA this afternoon will hold max temperatures into the lower 60s, with readings about 10 degrees milder over coastal NE FL.
Cirrus moving through the ridge will drift overhead during the day, increasing in coverage tonight as an approaching Pacific trough breaks down the ridge. The approaching system will drive a cold front to the Uinta Mountains by sunrise Saturday where it will stall as the trough splits, sending energy southward toward the Las Vegas area. Of course, the eastern Uinta Mountains will also feel the impact of the incursion of cold air behind the cold front described previously. As the next Pacific trough approaches the region on Saturday, southwesterly flow will increase over the area as this system begins to take a southern track in response to the progression of the upper level jet.
A weak cold front located across north of Florida will slowly slide southeast tonight and tomorrow across northern and central Florida.
542 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper trough axis well south into southern plains this morning, and with Hudson Bay low moving east there is ridging across the western CONUS placing the northern plains in fast northwest flow. Dense Cirrus topping the ridge and moving southeast across the Dakotas, should skirt western and north central Nebraska today.
543 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Satellite imagery shows a decent sized trough swinging across the Great Plains resulting in a clipper system shifting across the Lower Missouri River Valley early this morning. But till then, the exiting of the clipper system will allow for the quick evolution of a split flow across the Desert Southwest into the Plains States allowing warmer temperatures to advect in across the region today and Saturday.
The cold front producing the mess offshore is currently analyzed bisecting the coast across southeast Louisiana and is progged to stall a couple hundred miles offshore by tonight. In the wake of the front, high pressure will briefly settle over the region tonight.
High pressure will continue in control of the area. Today Through Saturday Night High pressure is over the area but changes are not far away. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected today then the high pressure moves east of the state Saturday. An upper level low in northern Mexico Saturday morning will eject to the northeast Saturday and enter the Plains Sautrday night. As a result moisture will increase across Arkansas Saturday and temperatures will be a bit warmer.
323 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper ridging continues across the far western CONUS into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Wouldn't be surprised if some locations east of the Black Hills pushed just into the low 60s.
Energy with the upper trough splits with an upper low cutting off over Arizona and the northern trough over eastern Montana and northern Wyoming. Still though, with adequate low and mid level moisture and the passing cold front, will see at least scattered snow showers over our counties, though with minimal accumulations.
At any rate, high pressure remains to our west with a northerly flow still advecting cold air into the mid state. But with return flow setting up overnight, Saturday will be considerably warmer.
Nothing really has changed from previous model runs as this trough is expected to move through rather quickly and destabilize the air mass. This should 'air' out the valley and allow the pollution to move eastward with the trough. The day shift also noted that cold air trapped in the valleys ahead of the cold front could produce isolated freezing rain in some areas. After this trough, a dirty ridge builds in with a rather active pattern to the north near Washington through the weekend.
A cold front is forecast to move south across the region today.
Mean upper level western ridge begins to break down in the short term period. Thus temperatures will range quite a bit today from the lower 50s southwest to around 30 or so in the Turtle Mountains. As the snow tapers off tonight, we do lose the ice aloft and there could be a short period of light freezing precipitation before the precipitation completely ends. At this time, we think the precipitation will be mostly over and any amounts would be very light and we have limited this to a mention of light freezing drizzle. Cold front moves through the area Friday night with a period of breezy conditions late Friday night into Saturday. Soundings do indeed show a saturated supercooled water regime but bufkit models are mixed with the amount of vertical motion/omega for freezing rain.
Looking down-stream, over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, the current "precip" showing on radar looks to be mainly mid to upper level based virga, with ceilings reported at or above 12,000' except for obs south of New Orleans, re-enforcing the mainly marine rain today.
316 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 An upper ridge over the area will flatten as it translates downstream of the forecast region and a new upper level trough makes way for the Pacific shoreline. Late this afternoon and especially tonight into Saturday as the trough quickly translates eastward, cloudiness will increase and rain and snow showers will move across the area. Colder and drier weather is expected in the wake of that system to finish out the weekend, though it will be short-lived as a new upper ridge builds across the western U.
With 925 hpa temps above freezing, lows should only be a few degrees away from seasonal highs this time of year. Cold front is expected to work through the region on Saturday, with cooler air working in from the north.
Light snow produced by a surface and upper level trough should exit the area by midday, except for northcentral Wisconsin where some lake effect snow showers will continue. Jet energy rotating around the top of the ridge to our west will approach the region later tonight and early Saturday and should provide the upper support to produce some light snow. It could end as a little freezing drizzle as the mid level moisture departs but left it out for now.
1040 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 High pressure shifts east today. Weak low pressure to our north and south will provide clouds, and maybe a few snow showers or flurries Friday night into early Saturday.
In addition to the snow, the aforementioned strengthening low- level jet will bring wind gust to the ridges that could near Wind Advisory levels tonight. Wind chills will commonly be in the low teens to single digits, colder in the higher terrain. Warm air advection begins in earnest Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures may still be held below average values, especially further north where clouds will hold a little longer, but temperatures will certainly be warmer than the previous couple of days.
Aloft, a trough axis is aligned from the western Great Lakes down to the Desert Southwest. The trough axis will move southeast across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys today. Heights will then recover aloft tonight into Saturday, as a ridge axis sharpens up across the Mississippi Valley. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight into Saturday, as the ridge builds in from our west. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 20s in valley locations, to the upper 20s on the ridges under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. The period begins Saturday night with high pressure to our southeast and ridging aloft. Despite the gradient from approaching system to the southeast think the eastern valleys will decouple early and lead to at least a 5 degree ridge/valley split Saturday night.
Persistent upper level ridge that has been in place over the western US will get rolled over as a significant upper level trough over the eastern Pacific moves east. Respectable height falls of at least 160 meters are expected with the eastern Pacific trough as it moves inland. However the trough will drop into the Desert Southwest. A weaker trough over the Yukon will move into southern SASK by 00z Sun. Little or precip is expected with the trough itself. However warm advection precipitation will precede the upper trough. An upper trough will be digging into the western US on Saturday night with the northern branch remaining more progressive through the rest of the weekend.
The first of these will be well underway on Saturday with heights rising aloft and ridging developing as a mean trof deepens in the western U. This trof will feature several prominent short waves: one weakening as it ejects northeast from northern Mexico into west TX and the upstream kicker digging into the Great Basin. The combination of the ridging aloft, a pronounced low level WAA regime featuring veering southwest to west flow, and abundant sunshine will lead to another unseasonably mild day on Saturday with highs around 20 degrees above normal.
an influx of warmer air in westerly flow will mark a return to well above normal temperatures for mid December by the early afternoon hours. and consequently leaned towards the cooler side of guidance. with a warmer airmass in place and the westerly component to even light winds.
A positive tilt upper level trough extended from the Great Lakes states southwest across MO into eastern OK and TX. The upper trough will shift eastward across the eastern US and off the atlantic coast by 12Z SAT. The southern stream portion of the upper trough will close off into an upper level low across northern Mexico.
509 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Cold front has pushed well offshore this morning. Expect a coastal trof/low to begin developing along the lower & middle Texas coast as this occurs. Further aloft, the upper trof currently near Baja will make its way ewd over cntl Mexico, begin filling and eject northeast across cntl and ne Tx Sat night. 8" east of the Highway 69/59 corridor and the region becomes situated near the RRQ of a 120kt jet by Saturday night.
Slightly cooler post-frontal posture for Sat. Offshore flow up to 10-15 knots north of Sebastian Inlet still expected today ahead of a weakening cold front approaching the area.
540 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Cloudy day is anticipated today for Central Illinois, as a north/south orientation of upper level flow just to the west puts the region in the axis of an upper trof. This same wave digs into the western coast of the CONUS, and kicks the upper low currently in the Gulf of California out and across the southern tier of the country.
For today, lee-side troughing will be setting up this morning with low pressure moving across southern Canada and high pressure across southeast Idaho. A cold front will move across the forecast area early this evening which will end the strong wind gusts for the foothills. An inverted trough develops late tonight into Saturday.
411 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper ridge will rebuild across the area today resulting in mostly sunny, dry and warmer conditions. High temperatures will climb into the lower 60s. Ridge will flatten on Saturday as strong trough digs into the Great Basin. Cold front will move through the area during the day with brisk northeast winds by the afternoon. Low levels will slowly saturate Saturday night with the low level upslope.
Forecast remains on track to see the end of the inversion this evening as a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. Showers from this system will move into eastern Oregon late this afternoon with the fast moving trough slated to move through the forecast area by late Saturday morning. Showers are favorable across the majority of the area, especially over the higher terrain.
Another cold front will move through the area Saturday bringing more wind, increasing cloud cover, cooler temperatures and a possibility of brief showers over parts of southern Nevada.
In fact, the low cloud deck stretches all the way back to eastern Kansas as of 08Z. By Saturday night, an upper low currently over western Mexico is forecast to transition to an open wave as it pivots northeast across the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
Mid to upper level moisture continues to stream across northern Mexico and over South Texas and the Middle Texas Coastal waters this morning, with a deep upper level low positioned over the Baja Peninsula. A strong cold front moved offshore late last night/early this morning. In wake of the cold front today, temperatures will remain much cooler, with highs staying in the 50s. Saturday, the upper level low will move further east, closer to the region, while an inverted trough develops. Strong north winds and elevated seas are developing in wake of a strong cold front this morning, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through today.
Per rapidly building upper level dry nwly flow aloft pattern along with building sfc ridging influences, VFR/SKC conditions should prevail thru 16/12Z.
515 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Scattered to broken cloud cover was moving across the region this morning and will continue into this afternoon as an upper level trough moves across the Ozarks today. This will allow warm air advection (WAA) to begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area along with clearing skies.
At the surface, high pressure resides to our south over TX, while pressures are steadily falling to the lee of the Rockies.
The main adjustment for the update was to increase the cloud cover across the region and lower the highs by a couple of degrees to account for the increased cloud cover. Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 28 53 35 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 26 52 29 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 27 51 29 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 24 49 25 / 0 0 10 10.
/issued 432 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ Upper trough to the north keeping drier air just north of the area with some clearing skies to the I-30 corridor or possibly a little further south today. Upper low east of Baja CA continues to pump mid lvl moisture into rest of area. This upper low will quickly eject across Mex and rain will begin to enter the East TX lakes area Sat aftn.
Northwest flow continues aloft today before beginning to flatten out and bring slight ridging in at 500mb as the trough off the Pacific Coast moves onshore this afternoon and stretch from Saskatchewan through western MT through central CA by daybreak Saturday. At the sfc, this period will be marked by low pressure over the Canadian Northwest Territories pushing into ND this evening and sinking across the eastern Dakotas and western MN overnight, as the parent low moves into northern Saskatchewan. Temperatures will remain near or below freezing through 17Z, causing issues in type if precipitation exists. Soundings continue to show limited ice production, giving to a potential for freezing drizzle. Light freezing drizzle on the back end of the snow has been reported as late as 07Z east of ABR.
311 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper ridge will rebuild across the area today resulting in mostly sunny, dry and warmer conditions. High temperatures will climb into the lower 60s. Ridge will flatten on Saturday as strong trough digs into the Great Basin. Cold front will move through the area during the day with brisk northeast winds by the afternoon. Low levels will slowly saturate Saturday night with the low level upslope.
558 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Biggest concern during the short term is timing in precip and amounts with a warm frontal band of snow that is expected to impact areas mostly north of I-94 this evening. Water vapor imagery this morning shows energy working into British Columbia that is finally starting to break down the western ridge that has been in place for the better of the past week. This ridge axis will slide southeast and flatten out through the short term, but theta-e advection on the nose of the ridge will provide us with the forcing for a light snow event this evening and more so overnight. For temperatures, stayed with a blended forecast, which nicely accounted for the slowing of this system and its associated warm front.
432 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Upper trough to the north keeping drier air just north of the area with some clearing skies to the I-30 corridor or possibly a little further south today. Upper low east of Baja CA continues to pump mid lvl moisture into rest of area. This upper low will quickly eject across Mex and rain will begin to enter the East TX lakes area Sat aftn.
An area of high pressure off the West coast will dominate the weather pattern across central California for several more days. A cold frontal passage early Saturday morning could bring a few snow showers to the Sierra crest.
First isolated snow showers will form on the ridges, as mid-level cooling should allow cloud tops to cool towards ideal dendritic growth values by late morning/midday. In addition to the snow, the aforementioned strengthening low- level jet will bring wind gust to the ridges that could near Wind Advisory levels tonight. Wind chills will commonly be in the low teens to single digits, colder in the higher terrain. Warm air advection begins in earnest Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures may still be held below average values, especially further north where clouds will hold a little longer, but temperatures will certainly be warmer than the previous couple of days.
As the flow aloft flattens and the main westerlies move further north it will allow an upper level low over Mexico to work its way northeast across western Texas Saturday into Saturday night.
1201 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Rain chances will increase Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Feeding mostly off of elevated instability and moving into the teeth of the upper ridge still situated overhead, local thought is that this will begin to weaken and move northward following the upper-level flow. Lows are expected to remain warmer than average. Rain and thunder chances will increase rapidly into Sunday as the deepening upper low swings a cold front across the region by Monday morning.
Stratus continues to wrap around behind the upper low as it tracks out of north central Kansas and into Iowa over the next several hours. Overnight lows drop into the lower 40s across the area, as do the dewpoints, and could see some patchy fog in low spots after the recent days rainfall. Embedded vort max translates through the mean flow Sunday night and Monday while the upper low continues to spin over the Great Lakes region. Elevated convection Monday morning progged by all recent model runs would temper the severity of storms in the afternoon as a cold front enters from the northwest.