Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, WE EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY TO BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED VERY CLOSE TO THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY FOCUSING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PANHANDLE AREA FROM PANAMA CITY AND APALACHICOLA EAST TO AROUND JEFFERSON COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.
952 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
935 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Temperatures this weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WE WILL REMAIN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND WE ALSO HAVE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING ABOUT. SO THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TAPERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHALLOW TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS WITHIN THE LOWEST 900 FEET. /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
411 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Temperatures this weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
1136 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
730 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS GEORGIA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BROAD BUT MODEST UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE FAR FROM DOMINANT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.
1252 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HERE, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE TROUGH LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
1014 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY.
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
710 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
A PERTURBED NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME IS SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TEMPORARILY. REALLY JUST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS DEAMPLIFIES COME SUNDAY.
OFF SHORE FLOW IS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE THESE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE LESS ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY GIVING SUNNY DAYS AND THE WARMEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR. CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BURNED BACK TO THE COAST ALREADY EXCEPT FOR A PATCH IN THE LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS HEIGHTS ARE A BIT HIGHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WE WILL REMAIN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND WE ALSO HAVE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING ABOUT. SO THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TAPERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1245 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
AND WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WHERE THE SUN PROVIDES MORE INSOLATION. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LOWER CATEGORIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH ANY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES THAT MAY UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. WITH SOME TEMPS CREEPING UPWARDS INTO THE UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE WKND AS UPPER RIDGE OVHD.
IT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY IN A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THINK WE WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN SURFACE SMOKE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS EAST THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE HIGH TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST.
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS/LIFTS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LOWER CATEGORIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH ANY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES THAT MAY UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. WITH SOME TEMPS CREEPING UPWARDS INTO THE UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE WKND AS UPPER RIDGE OVHD.
BENEATH VERY MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AND WITHIN A WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED TO THE SW WHERE MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BUT A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW. THEN THE SECOND ROUND ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH DAWN. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY UNTIL NEXT S/WV TROF ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY 16Z WED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE THE BAYS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT IS NEAR A ROGERS CITY-HTL LINE AS OF THIS TYPING. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ADVANCING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING SAGINAW BAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WI. EXTENDING RIDGING INTO LOWER MI. THE EXITED COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AT BAY.
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW LOW PRESSURE ARE NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL GET PULLED TOWARD THE I-57 CORRIDOR AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE COOLER/DRIER WEATHER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
A weak cold front will stall across the area today, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting the terminals through tonight. The net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold pools.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW OVER MEXICO WILL INTERACT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS S TEXAS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND 950 MB. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING REMAIN IN THE WARMER SIDE REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80S WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ALSO INCREASING FROM DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH A DEGREE WARMER.
WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S F.
1239 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1. /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY FRI.
A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF OKC SW TO NEAR MAF WITH NNE FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY DUE TO PLACEMENT OF H7 TROUGH/WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A FEED OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AS THE RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
1000 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND FROM YESTERDAY OF DECREASED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED CONVECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S.
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AREAS OF SHOWERS FOCUSING ALONG THE ELEVATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ITS PARENT TROUGH PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING - EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT INTO THE REGION, LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND SUSTAINING COOL NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON NOTICEABLY COOLER, IN ADDITION TO VERY FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS A SECOND SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES /ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS/ AS I SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SOME RECENT UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS ALONG PADRE ISLAND MAY PRECLUDE STRONGER WINDS FROM OCCURRING ACROSS ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS.
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THERE WAS SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH WATERSPOUTS REPORTED OFF OF LAKE WORTH AND THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA.
HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING LIGHT SE FLOW WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
A WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY - GENERALLY KRDM-KBNO-KEKO. SO HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-9F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. BY AFTERNOON AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS BAKER COUNTY WHICH BRINGS IN A LITTLE COOLING VS.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED REGION IS STILL UNDER WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND NORTHERN GOMEX. 301 CORRIDORS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL END UP IN THE 50-60% RANGE AND DUE TO THE SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT TODAY EXPECT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2-3 INCHES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. THEN EVENT ALL WRAPPED UP BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND EXPECT NEAR CLIMO LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S COAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL FOCUS SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT TO THE IMMEDIATE N/W OF THE REGION BUT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER 07/00Z.
A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL PUSH EAST AND STALL OVER INDIANA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST.
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER TO DECLINE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND THUS REINTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
As the trough axis moves into the area this evening, it will push a backdoor cool front across western Montana and as far west as the Clearwater Mountains of central Idaho.
1017 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HRRR STILL HINTING AT A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO THE SW OF DENVER WHICH COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS AROUND NOON TO 1 PM. SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SPONSORED BY A BIT OF LIFT SUPPLIED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE A DENVER CYCLONE.
WITH H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS LOOK TO BE AROUND 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 72 90 71 / 20 20 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 70 87 70 / 20 20 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 88 70 87 69 / 20 20 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 67 86 67 / 10 20 30 20.
711 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS INUNDATED MOST OF SRN IA/SERN NEB/ERN KS BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL OK.
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY.
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE INCREASING PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY. AND RANGE IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S. /19/ THE THINKING IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM RECENT FORECASTS - TYPICAL MID-JULY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE AS A STOUT MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS INUNDATED MOST OF SRN IA/SERN NEB/ERN KS BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL OK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS AS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS FLORIDA.
/ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA.
431 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION. THE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 37N/130W HAS PROVIDED A COOLER AND DRIER ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE START OF THIS WEEK.
715 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWRD FROM THIS LOW INTO SW TEXAS. NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE PROGRESSING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASTWARD. BUT WITH THE ADVERTISED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD TODAY THESE STORMS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN TENNESSEE. THE HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATER THIS WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
1055 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
1043 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
148 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS AND A WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND IT. MIDWESTERN CYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY AND SWING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF STATES ON SUNDAY AND BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
158 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE RGN TODAY WITH BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHCS OF A LGT RAIN/SNOW MIX. THOUGH COVERAGE AGAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED UNTIL THE TROF AXIS MOVES THRU IN THE EVE. THE CROSSING UPR TROF SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHCS FOR LGT RAIN AND SNOW SUN EVE. THOUGH ONLY LGT ACCUMULATIONS ARE PSBL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SE OF PIT WHERE COLDER TEMPS AND PREDOMINANTLY LGT SNOW IS EXPD. ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY MON MRNG AS THE TROF EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT/SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE READINGS CLOSE TO FREEZING BY DAWN SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AND THERE MAY BE SUBFREEZING READINGS THIS TIME IN THE SOUTH/EAST WHERE A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED.
311 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
/06Z UPDATE/ WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. /00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND YESTERDAYS FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKENS FOR LATE SUNDAY. A FEW PROTECTED VALLEYS WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. WILL CALL FOR TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR COOLEST POCKETS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA WILL TRANSITION TO OPEN TROUGH AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH. FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000 FEET. WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
BUT GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT AND MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS/BOUNDARY LAYER. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO AROUND 30. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. RODRIGUEZ 324 PM CDT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
456 AM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 TEMPS WILL WARM INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER WESTERN WY BY THIS AFTN WITH 700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 0C. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT BY TUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
225 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 [Through 06z Monday] Clouds will be decreasing from northwest to southeast across the area today behind a cold front. Scattered showers continue along a cold front draped through the Tri-State region this evening. On Sunday Night, winds are expected to remain up overnight as we will remain in the surface pressure gradient behind the cold front, and therefore lows should generally be in the 39-40 degree range.
SO LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS INTO THIS ORGANIZING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN STILL IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM FROM ABOUT GREENLAND EAST TO THE COAST OF EUROPE. THIS STORM IS UNABLE TO PROGRESS ANY FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A SEMI-DISORGANIZED DUAL CENTER POLAR VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
324 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS IMPACTED THE CENTRAL CONUS IS MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SE OUT OF IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES 35 TO 42 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO ONLY REACH THE 30S IN MOST AREAS AS H8 THERMAL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
207 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUG THE MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER FINALLY WEAKENS AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHILE THE UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI. WINDS WL INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO THE EAST.
318 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AND WARMER TOMORROW WITH THE SUBSIDENCE.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NERN ZONES. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.