Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite nearly clear skies and a decoupled boundary layer, surface temperatures have changed little overnight, spelling a much warmer daytime period with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on track.
expect generally light westerly winds as a weak pressure gradient is in place across the region ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect the leading edge of the approaching cold front to reach interstate 80 by around midnight tonight. expect at least a chance for a dusting of snow to start the extended periods as a secondary cold front and upper level wave result in enough forcing to justify at least a small potential of snowfall across the region Sunday night.
406 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 If you like warmer weather, enjoy the weekend, as high temperatures climb into the 60s today and in the low 70s for portions of eastern Oklahoma on Sunday.
We'll see plenty of sunshine today and warmer temperatures as light south winds return to the area. Warmer temperatures are expected tonight, as low level moisture begins to increase across the area.
250 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 09z surface analysis had low over BC with warm front into western IL. Water vapour showed upper ridge over the western CONUS with CI spilling into the CWA. Today, downslope flow will continue as low level thermal ridge peaks. It will push an initial cold front into the CWA this evening and then another during the day Sunday. Stratus will develop behind the first cold front as low level T/Td spreads converge. Day shift will have to take a hard look further south given the lower end snow amounts, but possible fzdz/fzra potential.
/Issued 406 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019/ If you like warmer weather, enjoy the weekend, as high temperatures climb into the 60s today and in the low 70s for portions of eastern Oklahoma on Sunday.
Focus will then shift to the overnight and Sunday periods as a strong cold front drops south through the area. Soundings do hint at the possibility of some freezing drizzle in places, but not overly confident in it. That long wave pattern favoring a west CONUS ridge, and east/central CONUS trof.
430 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 09z surface analysis had low over BC with warm front into western IL. Water vapour showed upper ridge over the western CONUS with CI spilling into the CWA. Today, downslope flow will continue as low level thermal ridge peaks. It will push an initial cold front into the CWA this evening and then another during the day Sunday. Stratus will develop behind the first cold front as low level T/Td spreads converge. Day shift will have to take a hard look further south given the lower end snow amounts, but possible fzdz/fzra potential.
Northwest flow aloft over the central High Plains will continue over the central High Plains today between an upper level ridge over the western states and a trough in the east. Low level downslope flow will bring warmer temperatures to western and central Kansas today with high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 70s. A strong upper level trough dropping south through the western Canadian provinces will squash the upper level ridge off the West Coast with a broad upper trough developing over the northern and central Plains through tonight. This change in the pattern will send a weak cold front south through western Kansas late tonight and early Sunday. A cold front will be pushing through nearly all of southwest Kansas by Sunday morning.
/issued 451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019/ Chilly start to the morning with most locations currently in the 30s save for areas near the coast, with freezing temperatures noted across east central LA where the current freeze warning is drawn. Warming continues MON ahead of a digging ERN CONUS trof and robust CDFNT, with rain chances increasing markedly by late afternoon and evening as the boundary pushes into the area. Clouds will also be on the increase ahead of an approaching upper trof. 13 Winds and seas will continue to decrease today as high pressure settles into the region. A light onshore flow is expected to develop on Sunday as the high shifts east of the area.
515 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 Early this morning, high pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic across the Ohio Valley into Texas. Highs today, should be in the lower to mid 50s, then lower to mid 60s Sunday. A large upper trof is forecast to be over the east 1/2 of Canada at the beginning of the period, with a ridge up the Pacific Coast, and a cut off low over the California Baja. There should be good height falls over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as the trof digs southeast.
The combination of southerly winds and warm air advection will help temperatures rise to the lower to mid 50s for highs today despite the cold start. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday. A strong cold front will begin to approach the Mid-South Sunday Night.
/issued 324 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019/ It will be warm today with light southwest wind and even warmer Sunday with afternoon temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lower and mid-level moisture will increase on south and southwest fetch from an upper level low near Baja California. Later Sunday, a broad but strong trough in the westerlies will move into the central plains bringing a strong front south.
849 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 High pressure will bring dry and chilly weather to the Carolinas today and tonight.
442 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 Large trough over the northern 3rd of the US will swing down over the next day or so brining several weather threats. High clouds are expected to begin building in overnight as the main trough axis swings closer. A cold front associated with the upper trough will move from north to south over the plains through the afternoon on Sunday. This along with remnant differential warm advection will allow favorable low level thermal profiles for freezing drizzle for at least the first few hours of the event.
623 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 Freezing temperatures are possible over most inland areas this morning as cold high pressure builds in from the west thru Sat night.
Today through Sunday The ridge axis over Nevada will begin to retrograde today and will be back over the eastern Pacific on Sunday, though only very temporarily.
This warm/moist advection will boost temperatures into the low 60s this afternoon. A very strong cold front will surge into the Ozarks from the north Sunday PM.
451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 Chilly start to the morning with most locations currently in the 30s save for areas near the coast, with freezing temperatures noted across east central LA where the current freeze warning is drawn. Warming continues MON ahead of a digging ERN CONUS trof and robust CDFNT, with rain chances increasing markedly by late afternoon and evening as the boundary pushes into the area. Clouds will also be on the increase ahead of an approaching upper trof. 13 Winds and seas will continue to decrease today as high pressure settles into the region. A light onshore flow is expected to develop on Sunday as the high shifts east of the area.
Winds will gradually return out of the southeast tonight and Sunday as the high slides to the east.
317 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 Early this morning, high pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic across the Ohio Valley into Texas. Highs today, should be in the lower to mid 50s, then lower to mid 60s Sunday. A large upper trof is forecast to be over the east 1/2 of Canada at the beginning of the period, with a ridge up the Pacific Coast, and a cut off low over the California Baja. There should be good height falls over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as the trof digs southeast.
243 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2019 High pressure aloft will continue to dominate our weather picture this upcoming week.
An area of rain and freezing rain is currently over the NE corner of the state. The cold front will hover over this area this morning as the low pressure center moves into North Dakota. This will a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain and light snow going at times in this area. Will start the Winter Weather Advisory in this area with the forecast issuance this morning as icy roadways will occur in some areas with cold pavement even though air temperatures will be above freezing most of the time. Look for snow to develop which could be start as freezing rain or drizzle. Snow diminishes Sunday afternoon and evening as high pressure moves in.
A ridge of high pressure sits over the Great Basin this morning. The first weather system will drop into the area from the north on Sunday night, though precipitation will likely be confined to the higher elevations, particularly from Island Park to Monida Pass.
Highs Sun will range from around 60 over the far northern CWA, where the cold front will arrive earliest,to the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Active weather arrives Sun night with a strong cold front leading a very cold airmass. As deeper cold air arrives and surface temps drop to or below freezing, precip will transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow from north to south starting around sunrise Mon morning. However, could see some slick spots on bridges.
As previous shift alluded to, there may be a very brief period of drizzle or freezing drizzle as the initial surge of stratus moves into the area prior to daybreak. Icing amounts should be limited to a glaze to elevated surfaces/bridges as increasing winds will evaporate some precipitation as it accumulates.
Have opted to lean on the cooler guidance solutions accordingly which ended up being a MAV/MET blend for temps. As the upper flow shifts more zonal to SW late Sunday, we can expect Sunday night temps a bit warmer in the upper 30s to low 40s for most areas, therefore not expecting much frost/freeze concerns.
We're still on track to reach the low to mid 50s everywhere later this afternoon.
High pressure over the region has allowed for near calm winds and clear skies.
252 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 Tonight will continue with the quiet theme from today as upper ridging sets in over the region. Upper ridging will stay in place for most of tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.
Clouds across the northern sections associtated with a nort mas embedded within a broad mid/upper level trough are exiting the area, and we should have clear skies by the afternoon. DGS /ISSUED 920 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019/ Clouds across the northern sections associtated with a nort mas embedded within a broad mid/upper level trough are exiting the area, and we should have clear skies by the afternoon.
1209 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 High pressure will bring dry and chilly weather to the Carolinas today and tonight.
1124 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 Currently - Water vapor and analysis shows a strong upper level trough digging south across the southeast U. At the surface a cold front is pushing across extreme South Florida and the Keys. Dewpoints are holding out in the lower to mid 70s but sub 70 dew points are as far south as Miami. A cold front is pushing through the Keys and marine districts with fresh to strong NE breezes. Winds will gradually veer east northeast over the following 24 hours as high pressure begins to emerge off the southeast coast.
Temperatures will be warmer overnight tonight with temperatures only falling into the mid to upper 30s.
251 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 For today, the synoptic pattern holds with the west coast ridge and trough in the eastern United States. The initial cold front passes through tonight. Models agree and have been consistent with solid stratus moving in from the north behind the cold front Sunday morning. Strong cold air advection, coupled with solid sky cover will keep temperatures from moving much passed what lows were in the morning, especially for central and northern areas, going below MAV and NBM, and closer to cooler MET and MEX guidance. For Sunday night, the strongest push of cold air moves in with a second cold front.
Focus will be the warmer temps with southerly winds thru Sunday and mostly clear sky. With a slower arrival of the cold front on Sun, have trended warmer across the area, but moreso across the southern portions where less clouds and more insolation is anticipated. Upper trof will dig into the region Sun night into Mon. The trof along with frontogenesis will help support light precip across northern portions of the CWA. The timing of the cold front is a bit slower compared to yesterday. Temps may moderate slightly for Thurs, but a reinforcing cold front is expected to move thru the area keeping Fri cooler. A cold front will move into the region after 10/12z, and this will eventually produce a wind shift at the terminals towards the end of and/or just beyond the valid TAF period.
High pressure centered across TX this morning will result in a w-sw surface wind component.
Luckily it is moving slow enough the warmer temps continue to climb into the mid 40s and mid 50s throughout the state today. Forecast soundings do support a possibility of some freezing drizzle potential if precip continues as we cool below freezing tonight, though confidence is low and any ice accumluation amounts are minimal. As the surface cold front works through the area tonight, winds will shift out of the north and become breezy and temps tumble throughout the night. Adjusted the highs for Sunday down slightly according to deterministic models. Behind the cold front, models are still consistent in bringing light snow into the region Sunday.
Zonal flow should continue aloft through Sunday afternoon, with a ridge to the south and a cut-off low just off the coast of northern Baja California. With this enhancement in warmer southerly flow and strengthening of the 850 mb ridge, expect continued warming Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and partly cloudy skies.
The upper level ridge over the region has flattened allowing a weak system to spread clouds across the region and a little light precipitation across portions of eastern Washington. Above the inversion temperatures will be slightly cooler today.
Only change to the forecast this morning was a minor tweak to dewpoints which have been running two to three degrees warmer than forecast. /issued 451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2019/ Chilly start to the morning with most locations currently in the 30s save for areas near the coast, with freezing temperatures noted across east central LA where the current freeze warning is drawn. Warming continues MON ahead of a digging ERN CONUS trof and robust CDFNT, with rain chances increasing markedly by late afternoon and evening as the boundary pushes into the area. Clouds will also be on the increase ahead of an approaching upper trof. 13 Winds and seas will continue to decrease today as high pressure settles into the region. A light onshore flow is expected to develop on Sunday as the high shifts east of the area.
1224 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 High pressure overhead today will shift east tonight, and remain close through Sunday.
Expect falling temperatures with widespread rain and snow and freezing fog.
Snow Squalls Possible on I-90 Between Missoula and Butte Moisture is streaming into the region from the west, but showers are mainly confined to the high terrain. The moisture profile has been trending toward snow being more likely than freezing rain in the Glacier Region; There will be impacts from snow accumulations and blowing snow, but we are not expecting warning levels impacts, so the watch has been changed to a Winter Weather Advisory.
A weak cold frontal passage Sunday will bring clouds and a slight chance of MVFR showers to the Central Mountains of Idaho. High pressure will result in light boundary layer winds and low mixing heights for stagnant conditions in lower elevations through most of the weekend.
Temperatures will warm steadily into the 60s and a few locations will touch the lower 70s under clear skies and light winds. Tonight will be much warmer than the past few nights as return flow advects low-level moisture into the region and high clouds prevent sufficient radiative cooling. This warm up will be short-lived however, as a cold front looms to the north. A large upper-trof will begin to deepen across the Midwestern U.
248 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 Rest of Today and Tonight A very pleasant day continues across the area with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and a few readings in the lower 70s across southeast Nebraska. A surface cold front will drop through the region tonight, turning winds to the northwest and bring in slightly cooler temperatures, but lows tonight should remain above or near freezing for the most part. Moisture will also be on the increase with precipitation chances increasing across northeast Nebraska as early as 12z but precipitation type will could be light drizzle or freezing drizzle initially.
1039 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 09z surface analysis had low over BC with warm front into western IL. Water vapour showed upper ridge over the western CONUS with CI spilling into the CWA. Today, downslope flow will continue as low level thermal ridge peaks. It will push an initial cold front into the CWA this evening and then another during the day Sunday. Stratus will develop behind the first cold front as low level T/Td spreads converge. Day shift will have to take a hard look further south given the lower end snow amounts, but possible fzdz/fzra potential.
Early this morning, high pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic across the Ohio Valley into Texas. Highs today, should be in the lower to mid 50s, then lower to mid 60s Sunday. A large upper trof is forecast to be over the east 1/2 of Canada at the beginning of the period, with a ridge up the Pacific Coast, and a cut off low over the California Baja. There should be good height falls over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as the trof digs southeast.
High pressure aloft will maintain dry conditions and above normal temperatures today. A weakening weather disturbance will move through the northern Rockies tonight, followed by strengthening high pressure again early in the upcoming week. The eastern Pacific ridge will return to the western states early in the week.
A second weak disturbance will track southeast across the area Sunday night, followed by a return of high pressure aloft early in the upcoming week.
Much colder temps generally to the northeast of this cross section and much warmer to the southwest. Mixing in the lowest couple thousand feet -- along with a southwest breeze -- has allowed for temperatures the low to mid 70s across the area. Some dry air has mixed dewpoints out more over the north central into central areas, which has increased the fire danger to the high category over a broader area than forecast.
313 PM PST Sat Nov 9 2019 High pressure aloft will continue to dominate our weather picture this upcoming week.
830 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 Existing forecast remains on track as clear skies continue this evening under high pressure and cool/dry air continues to filter into the region via north/northeast flow.
Luckily it is moving slow enough the warmer temps continue to climb into the mid 40s and mid 50s throughout the state today. Forecast soundings do support a possibility of some freezing drizzle potential if precip continues as we cool below freezing tonight, though confidence is low and any ice accumulation amounts are minimal. As the surface cold front works through the area tonight, winds will shift out of the north and become breezy and temps tumble throughout the night. Adjusted the highs for Sunday down slightly according to deterministic models. Behind the cold front, models are still consistent in bringing light snow into the region Sunday.
Rest of Today and Tonight A very pleasant day continues across the area with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and a few readings in the lower 70s across southeast Nebraska. A surface cold front will drop through the region tonight, turning winds to the northwest and bring in slightly cooler temperatures, but lows tonight should remain above or near freezing for the most part. Moisture will also be on the increase with precipitation chances increasing across northeast Nebraska as early as 12z but precipitation type will could be light drizzle or freezing drizzle initially.
Afternoon highs have been running around 8-12 degrees above climo across our area during the last several days under the influence of a west coast high pressure ridge. The weak undercutting low pressure center drifting into the coast near southern CA is bringing a slight lowering of temperatures, with 24 hr trends currently running down around 1-4 degrees. Models then amplify the ridge along the west coast behind the upper low and we will see temperatures rewarming slightly for a couple of days.
High pressure moving further off to the east will allow for winds to shift out of the SSE tomorrow. High pressure nearly overhead will keep winds light through the night allowing for ideal radiational cooling. Although temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than last night (owing to the absence of CAA) patchy frost will again be possible across parts of central Louisiana where temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 30's.
320 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2019 Dry and mild conditions will remain in place through Sunday, before the next stronger cold front moves in Sunday evening. There is a weak surge of cooler air over which reaches the northeast corner of the state late tonight.
Some development of the low stratus is being hinted at by some model outputs across the southern terminals. Zonal flow should continue aloft through Sunday afternoon, with a ridge to the south and a cut-off low just off the coast of northern Baja California. With this enhancement in warmer southerly flow and strengthening of the 850 mb ridge, expect continued warming Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and partly cloudy skies.
The Rex Block associated with our dry and above-average conditions has finally started to break down today as the area of low pressure spinning off the coast of the Baja moves inland. The low pressure is forecast to remain south of our area producing little to no impacts. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure will continue to push eastward from the Pacific toward the California coast this weekend, keeping us under a strong ridge with above-average temperatures.
Current temperatures across the area range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s, which is significantly warmer than this time yesterday. Lows tonight will also be around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning thanks to a 20-25kt southwesterly LLJ jet around 2000 feet AGL.
535 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 The arctic cold front is moving through MT and ND this afternoon and should enter northern Nebraska around 12z Sunday morning. The NAM model soundings suggest several hours of low level saturation near the sfc to around 875 mb which will support drizzle and freezing drizzle.
High pressure nearly overhead will keep winds light through the night allowing for ideal radiational cooling. Although temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than last night (owing to the absence of CAA) patchy frost will again be possible across parts of central Louisiana where temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 30's.
620 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 VFR through the period at all sites as dry high pressure prevails amidst nwly flow aloft which is advecting some high cirrus into the region.
512 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 High pressure will move east of the region tonight. High pressure over SE Texas today has allowed for light winds and for temperatures to increase into the mid 60s for much of the area.
/issued 252 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019/ Tonight will continue with the quiet theme from today as upper ridging sets in over the region. Upper ridging will stay in place for most of tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.
441 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 Currently - Cold front is making its presence known across the Keys. Temperatures managed to climb to near 80 degrees with the middle Keys reaching into the lower 80s, before tumbling a few degrees with the cold front passage. Thereafter, the high will move offshore into the western Atlantic.