Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The American Fork, Crater Ridge, Robertson Draw, and Crooked Creek are the areas most at risk today. Chambers Upper ridge will remain over the area through Saturday with afternoon highs remaining well into the 90s for most areas. Mid level moisture associated with the monsoonal flow will penetrate a little further northward under the ridge into our CWA today. There appears to be a better chance of convection getting over the plains and east central Montana by Saturday afternoon/evening as the ridge axis slides a bit east. Ridging remains in control over the region, with, at least, some degree of monsoonal moisture hanging around.
144 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Temperatures early this morning have already fallen into the low 40s across the central interior portions of the UP under clear skies and calm winds. Clouds spilling over the ridge will, however, inhibit radiational cooling and thus a frost threat to the west this morning. So, with plenty of sunshine early in the day and southerly winds, highs will be able to top off in the low to mid 70s. Broad ridging across the Rockies will lead to the UP being on the eastern periphery of this ridge - which will allow a prolonged period of predominately NW flow. Starting tonight, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a wave drops SE riding along the ridge axis.
111 PM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Moisture rounding a low pressure system in the eastern Pacific will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast at times early Saturday morning. A cold front passage on Saturday will result in breezier winds for the afternoon and usher in much drier air.
These rain chances this afternoon look to be the last best shot for rain the region will see, as the apex of the ridge builds off to our NW. However, there will be a chance for a thunderstorm in our SE zones tomorrow afternoon, as these areas will be located on the southern edge of the ridge. Temperatures will begin to rebound as well, as that ridge builds in to our north. Lows tonight and tomorrow will be on the side of persistence, with them only getting into the low and mid-70s.
A chance for precipitation will return through the second half of the weekend though as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. Overnight, low moisture content allows temperatures to once again drop into the 50s, but despite high pressure directly overhead, upper 40s may be prevented due to the reduced cooling efficiency caused by the clouds. High pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday morning. In the low and mid levels, dry air is still present, so precipitation likely struggles to reach the ground through the afternoon.
1039 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Slightly cooler today as sunshine gets filtered by increasing high clouds. Weather conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening as the cold front moves into central Illinois. By the time it makes its way into northern Illinois, it should dissipate to a few sprinkles, but even that may be a stretch given the low- level dry air in place.
234 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Tranquil weather is in store for most of the weekend as the latest visible satellite image shows a cold front moving through SEMO at this hour. Late Saturday night, a warm front will approach the FA with a slight chance for pcpn in the Evansville Tri-State region.
In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the East Coast and a strong ridge is over the Great Plains and Mountain West. With upper level northwesterly flow we can't completely rule out a few showers or storms in the highest elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains due to upslope forcing but overall chances are low. High pressure near the Great Lakes will drift into the Northeast on Saturday. Temps will be much cooler overnight with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. With mostly sunny skies expected tomorrow, highs will be warm in the low to mid 80s.
Besides isolated shower possible this morning, otherwise drier and cooler conditions. For tonight, drier air and cooler temperatures. Calm winds and relatively warmer lake/stream water will produce some steam fog.
The upper ridge that reintroduced the heat to the area today has a disturbance triggering thunderstorms over the Pacific NW east into central Montana. However, it looks like much of the area will not get much rainfall as poor timing and inadequate instability and moisture will occur under this intense ridge.
Fairly decent coverage noted across SE TX today given the proximity of the easterly wave/inverted trough and a surge of deeper moisture (2. 4") and the lingering of that aforementioned inverted trough will help to account for elevated POPs across the southern third to half of the CWA and especially the Gulf waters. With regard to the temperature forecasts in the short term, will be keeping things on the warmer side of NBM. Despite the increased POP and cloud coverage the last few days, we are still getting highs at to near the higher end of MOS.
155 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a ridge centered over the Central High Plains. A trough was seen with the surface observations to the northwest of the forecast area. Saturday southeast winds allows WAA to continue, allowing even warmer temperatures into the forecast area. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today as a result.
335 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure exiting the region is allowing for a disturbance to become increasingly impactful to the U. This is expected to slowly but increasingly fill in over the next few hours, courtesy of sitting on the periphery of the Plains' ridge. Broad ridging across the Rockies will lead to the UP being on the eastern periphery of this ridge - which will allow a prolonged period of predominately NW flow. Starting tonight, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a wave drops SE riding along the ridge axis.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Drier and pleasant conditions are in place after passage of the cold front, and most areas around the mid state are enjoying temps in the low 80s and dewpoints mainly in the low to mid 60s. Northerly flow aloft to the surface looks to continue tonight and Saturday with a strong upper high in the Plains and a deep trough just off the east coast. Temps may climb a few degrees higher on Saturday compared to today as the upper high slowly moves eastward in the Plains and the trough to our northeast moves further away from the region.
1039 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through the weekend.
/issued 126 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022/ Water Vapor imagery currently shows a stout upper ridge over the central CONUS. The center of the upper ridge will expand southward overnight through tomorrow afternoon.
814 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Cooler and dry conditions will continue tonight, along with some high clouds. Conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening in the northeast and east as a cold front moves into central Illinois. Clouds will hang around for a while this evening, but should scatter out later in the evening as high pressure trys to build back into the area later tonight. The warm front associated with this system will bring showers and possible storms to the northeast and eastern parts of the CWA tomorrow night. The weather system that moves into the area Sat-Sat night will have a cold front move through as well.
(Tonight) Quiet/seasonably mild wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this Fri evening, as a frontal boundary continues to drop southward closer to the Gulf Coast, while high pressure out of the north settles more into the region.
507 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center to the ne of NM wrapping considerably drier and more stable air into ern and central NM. Max temps will trend a couple degrees warmer with most storms confined to areas west of the Cont Dvd. Min temps Saturday night will trend a couple degrees warmer as well with weak moisture advection on southerly winds.
626 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Cooler and dry conditions will continue tonight, along with some high clouds. Conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening in the northeast and east as a cold front moves into central Illinois. Clouds will hang around for a while this evening, but should scatter out later in the evening as high pressure trys to build back into the area later tonight. The warm front associated with this system will bring showers and possible storms to the northeast and eastern parts of the CWA tomorrow night. The weather system that moves into the area Sat-Sat night will have a cold front move through as well.
528 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will remain over the Central/Southern Plains through tomorrow. A slight increase in moisture will help to keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than earlier in the week.
Strong ridging aloft will maintain itself across the region through the weekend.
604 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Hot and dry weather will be the story for the next few days as a upper ridge of high pressure remains centered over the plains.
High pressure was located over eastern Lake Superior this afternoon with an area of low pressure in northeastern South Dakota. A warm front extended from this area of low pressure across southwestern Minnesota into western Iowa. A band of showers stretched from the Minnesota Arrowhead into northern Wisconsin with southeasterly mid-level winds riding up over the warm front toour southwest. Northwest flow will then setup for Saturday as the area of low pressure passes to our south.
Today through Saturday night Monsoonal flow shifting slightly eastward as upper level ridge of high pressure shifts eastward and drier air pushes into the western portions of our CWA.
555 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through the weekend.
918 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Canadian high pressure will build overhead through Saturday.
211 PM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Dry weather with a warming trend is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds over the desert southwest.
635 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Drier and pleasant conditions are in place after passage of the cold front, and most areas around the mid state are enjoying temps in the low 80s and dewpoints mainly in the low to mid 60s. Northerly flow aloft to the surface looks to continue tonight and Saturday with a strong upper high in the Plains and a deep trough just off the east coast. Temps may climb a few degrees higher on Saturday compared to today as the upper high slowly moves eastward in the Plains and the trough to our northeast moves further away from the region.
731 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure exiting the region is allowing for a disturbance to become increasingly impactful to the U. This is expected to slowly but increasingly fill in over the next few hours, courtesy of sitting on the periphery of the Plains' ridge.
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) High pressure centered over CO/KS/OK border will keep us near to slightly above normal today with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Rain chances will decrease substantially this afternoon, confined only to the higher terrain, as drier air pushes southward into the CWA. Overnight temperatures will continue in the low to mid 70s thanks to light winds and clearing skies.
A chance for precipitation will return through the second half of the weekend though as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. High pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday morning. In the low and mid levels, dry air is still present, so precipitation likely struggles to reach the ground through the afternoon.
655 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will continue to dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
Dropped tonight's min temp forecast slightly for valleys in the northern portion of the forecast area, where afternoon dew points fell to the lower 50s. The cold frontal boundary has exited the region as of a couple hours ago; however, lingering cloud cover will continue to exist along and behind the front through the afternoon. Cold air advection behind the front will exist keeping the forecast area cooler today and tomorrow.
656 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 VFR conditions will persist tonight into Saturday, but an increase in deeper moisture along a strengthening frontal boundary that will extend east into the area from developing low pressure over the midwest will bring increased (and lower) on Saturday (especially in the afternoon to evening).
A strong ridge is positioned across the central CONUS and moving eastward across the Great Plains, and a longwave trough is deepening over the Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front is situated over north Georgia, near the I-20 corridor. Cooler temperatures are thus expected overnight in north Georgia, with low to mid 60s in the far northern tier and upper 60s in the ATL metro.
High temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 80s to the low 100s over the plains and the 70s to 80s over the mountain valleys.
551 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through the weekend.
818 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Unsettled weather will continue across the area through the remainder of today as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. The front will move south of the area later this afternoon allowing high pressure along with cooler and drier air to overtake the region for the weekend. An unseasonably deep upper level trough over New England will push a cold front south of the CSRA and Midlands this weekend. The lower dew points will allow low temps to drop into the mid to upper 60s. A few sheltered locations might drop into the lower 60s.
High pressure was located over eastern Lake Superior this afternoon with an area of low pressure in northeastern South Dakota. A warm front extended from this area of low pressure across southwestern Minnesota into western Iowa. A band of showers stretched from the Minnesota Arrowhead into northern Wisconsin with southeasterly mid-level winds riding up over the warm front to our southwest. Northwest flow will then setup for Saturday as the area of low pressure passes to our south.
GOES-16 satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis this evening depicts an upper level ridge encompassing the Rockies and Plains and an upper level trough axis over the Eastern United States. Some high clouds embedded within northerly flow aloft are dropping into the Lower Mississippi Valley resulting in mostly clear skies. /issued 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022/ Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. Currently, a large area of high pressure covers much of the Great Lakes region.
449 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a ridge centered over the Central High Plains. A trough was seen with the surface observations to the northwest of the forecast area. Saturday southeast winds allows WAA to continue, allowing even warmer temperatures into the forecast area. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today as a result.
With high moisture S of the boundary & boundary washing out, some of this low-level moisture will bring some fog potential. PWs less than an inch & a half & dewpoints falling into the mid-upper 60s), lows could fall below climo in the upper 60s while near climo in the S in the low 70s. Saturday: As the longwave trough swings off the E Coast & ridging builds in, drier air will build in the wake across the region. Ridge will remain over the Rockies to TX Panhandle. An area of disturbed weather along the N Gulf Coast has a low chance of tropical development, but this is progged to slide SW under the ridge towards TX into Sat. Highs will be warmer near climo in the low 90s areawide.
Dry weather with a warming trend is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds over the desert southwest.
Tranquil weather is in store for most of the weekend as the latest visible satellite image shows a cold front moving through SEMO at this hour. Late Saturday night, a warm front will approach the FA with a slight chance for pcpn in the Evansville Tri-State region.
00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center to the ne of NM wrapping considerably drier and more stable air into ern and central NM. Max temps will trend a couple degrees warmer with most storms confined to areas west of the Cont Dvd. Min temps Saturday night will trend a couple degrees warmer as well with weak moisture advection on southerly winds.
/issued 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022/ Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. Currently, a large area of high pressure covers much of the Great Lakes region.
908 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through the weekend.
Noticeable drier and cooler today. (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Drier and pleasant conditions are in place after passage of the cold front, and most areas around the mid state are enjoying temps in the low 80s and dewpoints mainly in the low to mid 60s. Northerly flow aloft to the surface looks to continue tonight and Saturday with a strong upper high in the Plains and a deep trough just off the east coast. Temps may climb a few degrees higher on Saturday compared to today as the upper high slowly moves eastward in the Plains and the trough to our northeast moves further away from the region.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows the upper ridge currently centered across the central High Plains with fairly dry mid level air expanding southward through west-central Texas. With the upper ridge still off to our north, near average temperatures will continue this afternoon and blended guidance continues to fare quite well in this setup. The ridge will pivot southward Sunday, centering across the TX Panhandle and nudging thickness up some. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be a degree or two warmer than today as a result, reaching the mid to upper 90s for most with 100s possible in the northeastern Permian Basin and along the Rio Grande.
In fact, forecast models suggest temperatures won't change much for the entire period as northwesterly flow downstream of persistent western CONUS ridging will keep our temperatures near to slightly cooler than normal.
Temps are generally a couple of degrees warmer than they were at this point 24 hours ago with widespread 70s as of 3am. Surface analysis shows a low near Redwood Falls, MN and a trailing cold front that has pushed into far northeast Nebraska. Expect highs along the SD border to end up about ten degrees cooler than yesterday's toasty numbers.
High pressure was located over eastern Lake Superior this afternoon with an area of low pressure in northeastern South Dakota. A warm front extended from this area of low pressure across southwestern Minnesota into western Iowa. A band of showers stretched from the Minnesota Arrowhead into northern Wisconsin with southeasterly mid-level winds riding up over the warm front to our southwest. Northwest flow will then setup for Saturday as the area of low pressure passes to our south. This will lead to northeasterly winds off Lake Superior which will help keep temperatures near the lake on the cooler side, but mostly everyone will see highs in the 70s for both Saturday and Sunday.
A chance for precipitation will return through the second half of the weekend though as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. High pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday morning. In the low and mid levels, dry air is still present, so precipitation likely struggles to reach the ground through the afternoon. Cloud cover and rain keep temperatures warmer overnight with generally low to mid 60s.
A weakening long wave trough remains off the west coast. Meanwhile, strong high pressure remains over Great Plains states, and monsoonal moisture remains well to the east of the Medford forecast area.
240 AM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a ridge centered over the Central High Plains. A trough was seen with the surface observations to the northwest of the forecast area. Saturday southeast winds allows WAA to continue, allowing even warmer temperatures into the forecast area. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today as a result.
215 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 An U/L trough along the eastern seaboard will sink south over the Florida peninsula over the next couple of days with increasing deep layer moisture and instability across the forecast area. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds less than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet through the period.
349 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Current mesoanalysis very early this morning indicates a cold front continuing to drop southeast across the area. With weak cold air advection persisting into tonight, it will be a cooler night. Lower to mid 60s will be more common to the west as the low level flow becomes more southeasterly when high pressure over western MN drifts eastward.
Strong ridging aloft will maintain itself across the region through the weekend. Temperatures on Sunday overall will be a bit warmer. A wave topping the ridging Saturday night into Sunday may bring some showers/storms to the area, but coverage and amounts will be low. A broad upper level ridge will initially be centered across the Plains early in the period before retrograding west across the Four Corner and Great Basin regions toward the end of the period. Upper troughing looks to develop across the Great Lakes into New England during this time frame.
Hot/dry conditions are on order yet again throughout the period as an upper level high dominates across the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Hot temperatures are likely again this afternoon as prevailing southerlies reinforce a much warmer air mass across the high plains, pushing highs well up into the mid/upper 90s(F) with a few locations topping 100F. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 60s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas.
High temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 80s to the low 100s over the plains and the 70s to 80s over the mountain valleys. The upper-level ridge and associated high pressure will stick around through the end of this weekend, leaving us with above-average temperatures for Sunday. The plains will climb close to 100 degrees while the higher terrain will mostly sit in the mid-upper 80s.
357 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 High pressure will keep us dry with lower humidity into early Sunday.
1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 (Through Tonight) Another nice and quiet night is expected tonight, with overnight lows expected to be near normal values and several degrees warmer than last night.
Max temps today should be below climo norms with most areas ranging from the low to upper 80s, then moderate up a few degrees warmer for Sunday. Upper pattern through most of the period still defined by persistent, high- amplitude trough over the far eastern CONUS and NWly flow aloft on the west side of the trough extending from the midwest states to the southeast.
306 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 A large upper ridge has set up over the central plains and will be the primary catalyst for dry and hot weather to continue through the beginning of the work week. With the slowly approaching cold front, winds will gradually veer out to southwesterly.