Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm and humid conditions continue on Friday, but slightly cooler than today. Heat index values from the low 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon and early evening. An upper level system was pushing into the high plains along with a cold front, and that was already initiating convection over western Kansas. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler, but will still make it into the mid 80s to around 90, with heat index values from the mid 80s to low 90s.
743 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday. Ridging will maintain mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. Low shower chances return SE of PIT later on Friday as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS.
The Rex Blocking is expected to hold through Friday night ensuring VFR conditions. Largely a persistence forecast for Friday, although low level moisture will be on the increase as northward progression of a closed upper low pushes mid 50s dewpoints into the region by late morning. Pattern change commences overnight Friday as the closed upper low works its way into the mean flow.
946 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather through Friday.
Otherwise dry conditions prevail with temperatures trending warmer into the weekend.
344 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022 The main concern with this portion of the forecast area is the high wind potential again tomorrow. Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level low continuing to progress its way northeast across the state. The main trof axis also triggered a line of thunderstorms along the Laramie Range early this afternoon, but that line quickly dissipated as it moved east of the front range, due to limited instability which also caused the strong outflow winds from the collapsing thunderstorms. The next surge of higher winds are expected to develop late this afternoon and early this evening as the upper level closed low lifts into eastern Wyoming. These winds are in association with the tightening height gradient at the base of the trof where some mountain wave activity may get going this evening.
An upper level low just off the east coast will continue to move slowly westward with an increase in moisture. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 83 62 85 63 / 0 20 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 81 59 83 62 / 0 40 10 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 59 82 60 83 61 / 0 30 10 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 78 57 79 58 / 10 60 20 70 20.
Spring winds will finally relax beginning Friday as a ridge of high pressure moves over New Mexico.
552 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather through Friday.
624 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 (Tonight through Friday night) Early afternoon temperatures are in the mid 80s to lower 90s and are on track to top out in the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande south of Eagle Pass.
534 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022 The main concern with this portion of the forecast area is the high wind potential again tomorrow. Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level low continuing to progress its way northeast across the state. The main trof axis also triggered a line of thunderstorms along the Laramie Range early this afternoon, but that line quickly dissipated as it moved east of the front range, due to limited instability which also caused the strong outflow winds from the collapsing thunderstorms. The next surge of higher winds are expected to develop late this afternoon and early this evening as the upper level closed low lifts into eastern Wyoming. These winds are in association with the tightening height gradient at the base of the trof where some mountain wave activity may get going this evening.
High pressure will build over the area this weekend, resulting in a steady warming trend in temperatures.
(Tonight) The backdoor cold front is now to the west of the area with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. This activity is associated with an inverted trough. Overnights lows will generally be in the low to mid 60s. A small break from the humid conditions tonight thanks to the cooler drier air that moves west to the AL/MS border.
614 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance The upper ridge axis remains parked over the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. On Friday, we lose the influence of the upper ridge. Weak convergence develops as we are sandwiched in between an upper low pressure system across the southeast U.
These winds will rapidly diminish early tomorrow morning as a cold front drops south through the area switching winds around to the north. A cold front will begin to slowly push through the area late tonight bringing cooler temperatures. There is some uncertainty on how far south the front will push through the region which will determine the dividing line between hot and cooler highs. Additionally, if the cold front does stall near the region it could result in some precipitation forming along and south of the boundary.
The upper low in the western Atlantic will continue to drift toward the SE U. coast overnight, carrying the weakening inverted trough along with it. A few showers could brush the Volusia coast early tonight, then redevelop farther south along the Treasure Coast overnight as the trough axis lifts farther northward. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than average for this time of year, with overnight lows in the low 60s, with a couple of the traditionally cooler locations well inland possibly dropping into the upper 50s. Light SE flow on the western flank of the Atlantic ridge will back more easterly during the day.
Modest winds this afternoon will subside in the next few hours shifting 12-18Z with the arrival of a weak cold front. (This afternoon through Friday night) A broad upper lvl trough remains situated over the Intermountain West as southwest flow aloft continues across W TX and SE NM.
932 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Convection across central Miss this evening in association along the western flank of an upper level low pressure system and theta-e ridging near 850mb should stay to our east overnight and for this reason, feel like it's ok to remove slight chance pops across our far eastern zones. This theta-e ridging migrates westward by Friday Afternoon/Evening and this could put more of our far eastern zones under the threat or isolated to scattered convection. Concerning the remainder of the overnight forecast tonight, 02z temps are running some 1-2 degrees cooler than this time last night which is well handled in the currently hourly temperature forecast as well as accounted for in overnight low temperatures tonight.
Upper level ridge just off to the northwest will weaken slightly through the taf period.
/issued 244 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022/ The center of the upper ridge that has been over the Mid-South the last several days will continue to retrograde to the west into the early part of weekend as it weakens. At the surface, a backdoor cold front that is mainly a division between the humid air and much drier air currently sits over Middle Tennessee. With the upper ridge weakening, chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region on Friday. If the backdoor cold front does edge westward into the CWA, this boundary may become the focus of shower and thunderstorm development as well.
This would be dependent on if any outflow boundary interacts with the surface warm front stretched across northern Wisconsin enhancing surface convergence. Some relief from this heat is in sight as a cold front approaches the region from the west overnight. Associated convection is expected race out ahead of the boundary becoming more cold pool driven/dominant as depicted by the high-res meso models. While the higher risk for severe storms is west of the area, the main threats would be for wind and hail. Storm chances tomorrow afternoon: The weakening cold front progged to traverse southeast Minnesota tonight will continue propagating east across western Wisconsin into Friday morning before setting up from southwest to northeast Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon.
Will lean towards not putting a visibility restriction at this time due to the low confidence.
High pressure will gradually build across the southwest United States over the coming days. Current temperatures are running anywhere from 10-15 degrees warmer then they were 24 hours ago which point to warmer lows in the morning.
High pressure will continue to build over the state over the next several days.
911 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 A area of low pressure will move southwestward just off the North and South Carolina coast, bringing breezy north winds and increasing rain chances.
Hi-res guidance shows a brief period late tonight and early Friday morning where precip activity will drop off, and then quickly ramp back up as the upper low moves overhead. Upper area of low pressure that has been off the southeastern coast the past several days will be moving inland close to the Ga/SC state line on Friday. This low will then slow and move northwestward by the afternoon hours and into Friday night.
Summary: By far the greatest focus of this forecast will be in the first 12 hours due to the potential for severe thunderstorms, and perhaps a brief period of critical fire weather in the far W behind a surging cold front.
High pressure will gradually build across the southwest United States over the coming days.
656 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather through Friday.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop throughout the day with the highest likelihood for storms occurring in concurrence with daytime heating. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 60s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s along the coast.
Mid-day should be dry with the cold front slowly moving southeast. This cooler airmass will limit highs to the low 80s in northeast KS/northwest MO and mid 80s in central MO. High pressure settles in Saturday giving us a dry day. Ridging over the desert southwest becomes established this weekend and will nose into the Midwest. Any low pressure that moves through from the Pacific Northwest will stay north in the Upper Midwest.
138 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather through Friday.
105 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature continues today before shower and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend. A slight chance of isolated showers and storms return south and east of PGH later today as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS. The mentioned upper low is progged to begin to phase with a northern stream trough Saturday as it crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region, returning shower and tstm chances to the forecast.
Tonight Through Saturday High pressure currently situated over the CWA will continue to allow those temperatures to soar making it feel like summertime. Some relief is expected Friday evening into Saturday as a weakness in the ridge will allow some moisture into the area from a low pressure system over the southeast.
234 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Low pressure slowly moves west today spreading a few showers with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Given a similar weather pattern for Friday with the forecast area located between the upper low to our east upper ridge to our west, we'll likely see a repeat of storm development with daytime heating.
305 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 A closed mid/upper level low will drift northwest over portions of GA/SC today.
Today Through Saturday Night H500 low across the southeast US will slowly lift northward over the next day or so, before being absorbed by an eastward moving trough currently in place along the US/Canadian border west of the Great Lakes. A weak disturbance around the periphery of the low will move southward near the MS River throughout the day. As the H500 SE US low weakens and lifts northward, ridging across the SW will expand.
408 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Low pressure slowly moves west today spreading a few showers with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
The low clouds should scatter out 10AM to noon. Warm conditions this afternoon, with highs generally forecast in the low to mid 90s, except across the Winter Garden, Brush Country, and portions of the Rio Grande, where temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 100. An upper level ridge amplifies slightly across northwest Mexico and Baja California on Saturday.
310 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperature continues today before shower and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend. A slight chance of isolated showers and storms return south and east of PGH later today as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS. The mentioned upper low is progged to begin to phase with a northern stream trough Saturday as it crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region, returning shower and tstm chances to the forecast.
At the surface, a cold front was located along a line from Denver City to Memphis and has overtaken the westward translating dryline, with frontogenetically-forced convection occurring within 60 miles northeast of Childress County. The boundary-layer will moisten overnight as a weak upslope fetch develops from winds veering to the east and southeast, with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s across extreme southwestern TX PH into the Rolling Plains, respectively. Running through a few specifics, low level flow Saturday will veer as today's cold front undergoes frontolysis to our south.
Upper low to our east is along the Atlantic Coast near Jacksonville, with the upper trough to our west from the Dakotas southward to Texas. At the surface, weak high pressure extended from Pennsylvania southwestward to the north central Gulf south of Louisiana. Upper low to our east will make it's furthest westward progress during the day today before lifting northward toward New England later tonight and through the weekend as northern stream troughing shifts eastward. Those with the lower precipitable water values hold off any convective development until late afternoon.
Warm and humid conditions continue on Friday, but slightly cooler than today. Heat index values from the low 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon and early evening. An upper level system was pushing into the high plains along with a cold front, and that was already initiating convection over western Kansas. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler, but will still make it into the mid 80s to around 90, with heat index values from the mid 80s to low 90s. The remainder of Saturday should be dry and cooler with highs generally in the mid 80s across the area.
Aloft, a broad upper low continues to drift westward while upper ridging weakens slightly for the time being. Given this, as well as recent trends in observed temperatures, have opted to go slightly below national blend guidance for high temp values today with most inland locations in the low to mid 90s and the coast in the upper 80s. Warm temperatures remain the story on Saturday with highs once again in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
The upper low over the Southeast will begin moving northward today as it starts to absorb back into the northern stream. At the surface, a weak trough east of the Florida coast will move ashore along the Southeast today into the evening. Synoptic support from the upper low will assist the seabreeze in generating convection across south Florida.
1225 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022 (Tonight through Friday night) Early afternoon temperatures are in the mid 80s to lower 90s and are on track to top out in the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande south of Eagle Pass.
MVFR to localized IFR conditions are expected in the vicinity of the fires with more diffuse smoke beginning to extend south southeast as a backdoor cold front enters the eastern plains of the state. Spring winds will finally relax beginning Friday as a ridge of high pressure moves over New Mexico.
420 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Upper cutoff low will continue retrograding westward into the area today under the large scale blocking pattern aloft. The low looks to dampen northward for Saturday along with a weak disturbance approaching from the NW so have chance pops in the northern CWA with slight chance elsewhere. While temps should be limited to below climo norms today (many locations in upper 70s for highs) given aforementioned moisture and upper low influence, we get back to near normal for Saturday with much of the area reaching the low to mid 80s. Baker By Sat night the main area of low pressure that has been over the area for a few days will have weakened and absorbed in the over all flow.
Temps will be cooler with highs in the mid 50s north and low 60s south.
217 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Rain chances will increase tonight and into Friday as low pressure funnels moisture from the Atlantic Ocean westward toward the Appalachian Mountains. Upper low is currently centered right along the coastline of the Carolinas. Most areas of fog have been confined to the higher ridgetops owing to the low cloud base and easterly flow banking up against the mountains. Rain shower chances continue today and may be a bit more widespread as the upper low positions itself better for our region to see a more classic east/southeast flow. A closed low over the western Carolinas on Friday gradually opens up by Saturday morning and lifts northward, eventually becoming embedded in a large scale trough over Canada and the northern states.
Night time temperatures were in the mid and upper 60s, with dewpoint separations 5 to almost 10 degrees cooler, and a light E-SE wind should be sufficient to keep fog formation minimized. Slightly cooler conditions are expected today, as cooler air filters in from the east. Highs should range from the low/mid 80s, with SE winds of 5-10 mph.
Ridging will begin to amplify over the Baja coast as we head into the weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
331 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022 A back door cold front will usher in a bit of relief from the recent heat as well as a chance of rain and thunderstorms today. High temperatures today are expected to be at least 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. General rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight and Saturday as a weakening upper low approaches the Midsouth from the southeast and a dissipating cold front approaches from the northwest.
/NF/ Through Friday: Given a similar weather pattern for Friday with the forecast area located between the upper low to our east upper ridge to our west, we'll likely see a repeat of storm development with daytime heating.
1219 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Fair and dry weather courtesy of high pressure over the area will continue well above normal temperatures through Saturday.
Tranquil weather pattern through the weekend will bring warmer and drier conditions with typical westerly breezes each afternoon.
Will lean towards not putting a visibility restriction at this time due to the low confidence. Deep layer ridge axis stretching roughly along the Sabine River Valley is progged to continue gradually eroding over the next couple of days as a large upper low off the SE Coast continues to retrograde WWD through tomorrow before lifting north on SAT. Despite having varying solutions, CAMs continue to show TSTMS/TSTM clusters developing and/or propagating SW across these areas, with little to no development/activity west of the Sabine River where some semblance of ridging remains.
Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy on Saturday as a cold front moves into the region.
However, into Saturday morning we are still under the axis of the upper high or upper ridge. We have increased the forecast afternoon high temperatures tomorrow as the models tend to cool the high temperature forecast to much when heights start to decrease. - Cold Front Brings Storms Saturday On Saturday that Pacific system finally gets far enough east to bring the primary cold front through the area. I get the impression with will be one of those classic summer like cold fronts were the storms will form inland of the lake shore (near US-131) then move east toward I-75 by mid to late afternoon.
1130 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance The upper ridge axis remains parked over the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. On Friday, we lose the influence of the upper ridge. Weak convergence develops as we are sandwiched in between an upper low pressure system across the southeast U. While slightly cooler air will be present on Friday, we are likely still to warm into the mid to upper 80s. Saturday presents a bit cooler solution, with readings only in the low 80s.
A dry day is in store for the majority of the fa with slight chance for some showers/storms in our far southeast as the low moves through the area and is absorbed into the dominant flow pattern. Temperatures reach the low/mid 80s again across the area. The H5 ridge finally propagates to our east Saturday night, with a trough pushing in from the west.
305 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Warm and dry conditions will continue on Friday as narrow upper ridging remains over Central Indiana. An upper trough over the Northern Plains and a retrograding upper low over the southeast will help break down the upper ridge. With the upper ridge breaking down expect some high clouds to develop during the day Friday as the retrograding upper low over the Southeast approaches the region. Expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s overnight as dewpoints remain near 60 degrees. The overall pattern will shift on Saturday as the upper ridge dissipates and a remnant frontal boundary moves through the area. The aforementioned retrograding upper low will be absorbed by a strong jet stream that extends from the West Coast to the Great Lakes.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ An upper ridge currently separates an active storm track across the Northern Plains and a broad upper low over the Appalachians. This ridge will keep the above-normal temperatures in place through Saturday. The question then becomes how far east will these storms reach before being shut down by the re- strengthening ridge and loss of diurnal instability.
Cold front moving through the Texas Panhandle at this time will track east and south out of the forecast area this morning. Short term model solutions vary between the warm front lifting as far north as the Texas Panhandle or keeping south of the forecast area.
/Today through Saturday/ A slight shift in the pattern is expected within the short term period as an upper-level low across the east Coast of Florida shifts west into the Carolina's before being absorbed across the Great Lake Region on Saturday by a more progressive trough. This upper-low will help to slightly weaken the persistent ridge that has brought unseasonably hot conditions to the region over the past week. High temperatures today to range from around 90 across east Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere. On Saturday, most of the region can expect highs in the lower 90s.
151 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof over the northwestern CONUS with upper low over western ND. Have expanded the high wind warning into Ziebach county while also adding Haakon county to the advisory, and also extended the ending time to 00Z.
/Issued 1214 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022/ /Through Saturday/ An upper ridge currently separates an active storm track across the Northern Plains and a broad upper low over the Appalachians. This ridge will keep the above-normal temperatures in place through Saturday. The question then becomes how far east will these storms reach before being shut down by the re- strengthening ridge and loss of diurnal instability.