Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After a prolonged period of freezing drizzle across the region, precipitation had largely come to an end this afternoon. We could still see a rogue patch of freezing drizzle or very light snow late this afternoon as short wave energy moves in from Kansas and Oklahoma, however this will by far be the exception. We have therefore gone on the cold side of guidance with lows expected to fall into the lower and middle teens.
At the surface, cold front has now pushed off of the TX Gulf Coast with a high centered over western OK. ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement with a cold front to move through toward the end of the work week. Both models take what is left of the impulse over southern CA across the central Plains Thu with cold front moving through Thu night. It'll be excellent weather for all of the KS Neighborhood as STRONG Canadian high pressure that is centered over the Alberta/ Saskatchewan border early this evening, moves slowly SE & reaches the Ern Dakotas/MN borders on Mon. Fire danger concerns are expected to remain on the low side for the next few days.
Weather maps today shows very little change in the long-wave upper trof positioned over the central CONUS. East of the trof axis, a look at high level stream lines, shows axis of best diffluent flow and net deep layer ascent has shifted gradually eastward across AL to the western FL Panhandle over the past 24 hrs. With little movement to the upper trof to the west, presence of deep layer moisture over the central Gulf coast and surface front still off to the west, an unsettled weather pattern holds for awhile longer. Daily highs trend a little cooler by a few degrees below seasonal over the northwest zones.
Water vapor loop indicated a broad upper level trough across southern Canada with a short wave trough over the MAN/Ontario border. Westerly sfc flow will contribute to substantial warming on Wed; potential exists to drive temps toward 40 degrees, as it stands now most areas are progged to at least climb above freezing. This will be attributable to a quasi backdoor cold frontal structure descending from Canada. Flurries and IFR CIGs in the wake of cold front impacting TVF and soon BJI.
311 PM PST Sun Feb 11 2018 Cooler temperatures this week.
High pressure will build into the area for the early parts of the week. A low pressure system may affect the area towards the middle and later parts of the week. Most of this period looks to be rather quiet, as a large high pressure area drifts through the Great Lakes.
In the short term one more surface cold front will approach northern Iowa this afternoon as it begins to experience frontolysis with ridge of high pressure expanding south tonight. The ridge will push one last area of colder air into the state overnight providing the opportunity for another night of sub zero cold over the area. though a few degrees cooler due to the cold start.
/issued 236 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ (Tonight and Monday) Primary concerns for the short term are the freezing temperatures expected overnight. Clear skies and light winds will leave most areas in the low to mid 20s. Otherwise, the sunshine from this afternoon should improve the conditions on any bridges and overpasses that had ice accumulations from this morning. High temperatures will be just below normal for this time of year in the low to mid 50s.
1043 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region through tonight as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
638 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Showers end as a light wintry mix tonight into early Monday morning as a cold front passes. The cold front is working its way into the mountains this evening. A cold front will march quickly across the region this evening. Temperatures will plummet quickly behind the front overnight with the northwest half of our forecast area ending up at or below freezing by dawn Monday morning. This could fall as just about anything with surface temps falling below freezing, an eroding warm nose aloft, and decent omega in a seeder-feeder cloud layer above. Any precip quickly dries up by late Monday morning as high pressure builds in and decreasing clouds will occur from west to east during the day.
952 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Low pressure will continue tracking northeastward across southern Quebec overnight.
The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front slow working across Kentucky this afternoon. The cold front will usher in a cooler airmass with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across portions of central Kentucky this afternoon. The other concern tonight will be how much if any freezing rain will be realized given the antecedent warm conditions, and current road temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in most spots. Despite some of the uncertainties opted to hoist a WSW for northern portions of the CWA where temperatures will be cooler overall, but you could still see some issues on untreated and elevated surfaces in the more marginal locations. By Monday, this precipitation will quickly move east out of the area, as an area of high pressure builds southeast into Kentucky.
658 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 A cold front will pass through the region this evening bringing scattered rain showers that will end as a few flurries or snow showers.
608 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 A cold front pushes east through the Mid Atlantic region tonight.
711 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region through tonight as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
759 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central U. on Mon as a trough digs into the western U.
802 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 A cold front will pass through the region this evening bringing scattered rain showers that will end as a few flurries or snow showers.
A cold front has been pushing across the region with temperatures slowly falling behind the front. High pressure is expected to settle into the gulf states tomorrow with the winds relaxing.
Light snow accumulations are possible tomorrow for the higher terrain, for the Mogollon Rim and points northwestward. Low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will push southward over the next couple days. Light snowfall accumulations are forecast for the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim and points northwestward during this period.
1025 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region through tonight as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
Uncertain as to the current amount of sea fog over though hi-res guidance insists in sea fog development during the evening and overnight in this area with higher dew point air going over the cooler waters.
Surface cold front has pushed east of the area, but there is still a large temperature gradient, with low 30s being reported in southern Indiana to upper 40s in the Lake Cumberland Plateau. Unfortunately, this precipitation will be in the form of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain, making for a potentially messy situation tonight. Current thinking is that p-type near the Ohio River will be mainly in the form of snow or sleet, while p-types near and south of the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways will be a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. High pressure builds in tomorrow, and most folks will finally get to see that bright, shiny orb in the sky known as the sun. A giant 500mb ridge of high pressure looks to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and develop quasi-zonal flow aloft for the lower Ohio River valley.
421 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 A mid-level trough is pushing south over the Pacific Northwest towards the Great Basin region.
936 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 The cold front is approaching far NW GA this evening with those to the south and east of the boundary under a very soupy atmosphere.
An upper level trough continues to push southward across the forecast area with limited moisture. There will be enough upslope lift in a low level northerly flow to produce snow showers over the higher terrain of Oregon overnight before the system exits into the Great Basin early Monday morning. Skies will be clearing from the north overnight so also expecting some chilly overnight low temperatures along with some breezy north winds especially in the lower Columbia Basin.
509 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Cold high pressure will again build south tonight and bring another cold day to the area Monday.
748 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 High pressure continues to ridge across the area this evening with warm and moist S/SE flow in place.
Meanwhile, deep layered ridging is in place across the area. This evenings sounding indicated a fairly moist boundary layer, but with significant dry air aloft, a decent isothermal layer, and unidirectional flow through the lower levels. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather overnight. Temperatures will not fall much further due to the healthy warm flow, and dew point temperatures will linger in the lower 70s. Moderate to fresh breezes will prevail on Keys waters through the overnight period due to high pressure extending southwestward from the Atlantic, across the Florida Peninsula, and extending into the Gulf of Mexico.
Canadian high pressure is resulting in cold temperatures enhanced by our 3 to 12 inch snow cover.
Cold front just to our west and will move through shortly, giving us winds out of the northwest to north. Behind the front, CIGs drop into the lower end of the MVFR category.
932 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 The back edge of the low clouds currently currently across far eastern Oklahoma and moving east southeast.
/EC/ Tonight and Monday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a cold front near a Columbus to Meridian line. Local radars had a narrow band of showers along the front with a few thunderstorms noted ahead of the cold front over our southeast zones. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight than last night but remain above normal with the exception of the delta region. Morning lows across the delta region will be in the lower 30s.
657 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 A cold front will pass through the region this evening bringing scattered rain showers that will end as a few flurries or snow showers.
207 PM PST Sun Feb 11 2018 An area of low pressure will move south into Central California tonight and Monday. With moisture lacking, the low pressure system will bring the threat of light precipitation over the Sierra and Kern County Mountains with very little if any rain in the San Joaquin Valley. A low pressure system near the Oregon/California border this afternoon will continue to drop south. The cold front associated with this system will drop to near the Merced and Yosemite area late this afternoon then continue to move south through the CWA this evening and out of our area by about midnight.
553 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Low pressure will move northeast tonight followed by dry weather and high pressure through mid week. 550 PM Update: No chgs to current hdlns with the freezing line just barely into Srn ptns of interior Downeast zones attm. A high pressure ridge build into Maine will remain in place as a low moving along a cold front along the Downeast coast will force warmer air over the colder air at the surface. This will produce some sleet and freezing rain and drizzle across the region tonight. Temperatures will rise tonight into the lower 30s across northern Maine. Temperatures will peak around sunrise tomorrow then fall as the front moves east of the area and the ridge builds back across the area. The ridge will dominate through the end of the period.
Otherwise, high pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend. Broad high pressure lies from the Southeast U. Some cirrus is possible with the passage of the trough, but conditions will otherwise be dry and sunny. Meanwhile, a weak cold front currently over the Great Lakes will continue to track east throughout the day.
Otherwise, warmer highs will prevail today compared to yesterday. Temperatures increase aloft at low-levels with warmer 850 hPa temperatures in place. The warmer temps aloft combined with excellent insolation and sufficient mixing should be conducive for highs approaching/reaching 80 F at some locations. Meanwhile, modest southerly breezes develop this afternoon as surface lee-side trough sharpens in vicinity of the Laramie and Front ranges.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 50s early this morning with dew points in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday, the jet stream begins to affect the area supporting an upper level trough and surface cold front. The cold front will start moving into northeastern Utah Friday evening and should reach the I-70 corridor by about midnight.
305 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate the area through the short term, resulting in a very benign forecast period. Upper level high pressure axis will shift eastward through the period, and gradual warming trend is expected with the influence of this dominating feature. Still indicating a few isolated areas of patchy frost in the weather grids through 9 AM this morning, but with morning lows slightly warmer than yesterday and frost potential a bit lower, do not feel it warrants a Special Weather Statement at this time. Do not expect any frost Friday morning with the warmer thermal profile.
A weak cold front is currently moving through far ern WI. A ridge of high pressure will follow the front and shift ewd across srn WI and IL today. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will bring another very pleasant day to southern Wisconsin on Friday.
224 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the trough beginning to develop over the western CONUS. To the east the ridge was shifting east over the Plains. Highs will increase some from yesterday as warm air advection continues ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Friday the highs will continue to be warmer as warm air advection continues. Friday evening the winds will gradually decline as the surface pressure gradient weakens some ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough.
Strong ridging will continue to hold over the region through Friday with heights continuing to build. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain chilly with lows into the upper 30s to around 40 with ridges staying closer to the upper 40s. An anomalously strong upper ridge will be over the southeast CONUS as the period starts, providing dry and mild weather for the local area.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1027 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Virginia and the Carolinas. A cold front extends from the Great Lakes region back through portions of Kansas. Meanwhile, the Mid-South is on the western edge of surface and upper level ridging with mostly clear skies prevalent early this morning. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with the coolest temperatures over portions of West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley Today into Friday resulting in continued rain free weather across the forecast area. Surface and upper level ridging is expected to shift east by Friday night with southwest flow aloft returning to the region.
The Key West evening sounding is most likely not representative of the current atmosphere as mid troposphere is beginning to dry as dry air moves in from the Gulf in the wake of the mid level trough moving off to the east. Surface winds, and through the lowest few kilometers, will remain moderate to fresh out of the northeast as the lower tropospheric ridge remains planted over the southeastern CONUS.
Only forecast concern is a weak cold front Thursday morning and possible lake breeze Thursday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will diminish with sunset with high temps expected to reach the lower 70s most locations this afternoon. Temps will quickly fall into the 50s this evening and then only slowly drop overnight and probably not into the 40s until near daybreak as a weak cold front moves into the northern IL. though cooler near the lake depending on the timing of the lake breeze. Upper level ridging and backing low/mid level flow will help this boundary lift back north through the region Thursday night into Friday.
453 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Broad upper ridge covers much of the CONUS, with partly cloudy skies over the northern plains. An upper level trough will cross the Rockies Friday night with a cold front.
Today will be another lovely warm weather day with some breezy conditions across the Highlands and Central Mountains of 15 to 25 mph. An approaching broad upper trough will track a cold front across Idaho by days end, before dropping temperatures 20 degrees, bringing rain, snow and very strong winds. One to 2 inches are forecast above 6000 ft in the Highland areas.
Breezy afternoon conditions ascd with high pressure building Swd over the Mid Atlc toward the state will keep temperatures in check with partly cloudy skies and highs in the L-M80s. Available moisture remains confined to the low-levels as a building ridge aloft leads to subsidence and drying through the remainder of the column.
Quite windy over western areas on Friday as 700H winds increase to about 45 kts ahead of an upper trough that will move over the Pacific Northwest during the day before swinging across the northern and central Rockys Friday night. At the same time, a strong cold front will sweep east across the CWA Friday evening with some potential for a Bora type wind event behind the front as 700H winds exceed 50 kts for a time around the South Laramie Range. A few inches of snow possible over the higher peaks there.
Upper ridge and dry westerly flow will continue over the forecast area tonight.
235 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Skies were fair overnight with temperatures noticeably warmer overnight with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. a ridge of high pressure was over the region with troughing across the eastern and western United States. A weaker short wave trough was moving eastward this morning across New Mexico and extreme west Texas into Mexico. high pressure across the eastern United States was still ridging westward all the way into our area. So, we are generally just expecting a continued warmup today with clouds increasing mainly where the low level moisture gets established into Texas.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a low amplitude ridge over Texas with a trough to the west. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast, but the pressure gradient was loose so winds were generally light from the southeast to east across our CWA. The upper level trough to our west will rotate across Texas during this period. Low temperatures Friday morning will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
A weakening cold front to the NW wavering in the region today. Temps tonight a few degrees warmer than this morning as south/southwesterly flow in the midlevels keeps the warm air advection going.
The central Plains is under the influence of a weak ridge, with a minor trough in the desert southwest. At the surface, a 1018 mb high is sitting over central Neb, with a weak trough situated from NE to SW Kansas. Aloft it appears the Pacific trough will move onshore, while ridging builds into the midwest part of the CONUS. High temps continue to be a few degrees warmer than guidance lately so have raised the previous highs a couple degrees for most areas. With increasing moisture and south winds, lows tonight should be in the mid 50s which will be 10-15 degrees warmer than present lows.
Dew points this morning are already quite low in the lower 30s and am not expecting any recovery until later this afternoon across far western Minnesota. While dew points should be a little higher across western MN, temperatures will also be warmer, possibly in the lower 80s, which will offset the higher dew points.
225 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Broad upper ridge covers much of the CONUS, with partly cloudy skies over the northern plains. An upper level trough will cross the Rockies Friday night with a cold front.
One more mild and dry day ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold front. Strong pre-frontal southwest flow will initially focus precipitation in the mountains with rain filling in across lower elevations Friday morning as the cold front passes. Lower elevations dry out Friday night, with shower coverage decreasing across the mountains as the upper trough exits eastward.
There's the developing ridge to our east and a weak, but deepening trough to our southwest across the Trans-Pecos. Further to the west, over southern NV, there's another weak trough causing a bit of unsettled weather. A front is passing across the Great Lakes region and well back to the east in the Pac NW is a trough creating considerable storminess for western Washington and northwestern Oregon. Now, let's talk about that first trough. However, the chance still persists near the TX/NM border where moisture return has been the highest. Now for the Pac NW trough. Models are in good agreement this feature will continue to deepen as it moves eastward, dragging a cold front along with it.
Thus, trended above the 12 UTC consensus for highs on Thursday, with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Friday may be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday with greater mixing. A strong cold front is forecast by the 12 UTC global suite to arrive across western North Dakota Friday evening and move east through the night. Warmer temperatures with highs in the 70s to lower 80s can be expected Thursday and Friday with minimum relative humidities between 15 and 25 percent.
504 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A warm front will cross the region today, with a cold front crossing the region tonight.
Short wave trough moving into the Texas Big Bend and northern Coahuila will move east into the Brush Country this afternoon. Expect with enough influx of moisture by this afternoon along with heating and the approach of the short wave trough, there will be enough instability to see isolated thunderstorms. The short wave trough will move northeast tonight while another weak short wave trough moves into the Big Bend/northern Mexico again. The short wave trough lifts northeast Friday and most of the region will be affected by subsidence.
A band of thin cirrus associated with a weak upper level short wave trough will continue to move across the region during the overnight hours.
152 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures over the next few days. Mid-Atlantic high pressure will keep our weather clear and mild through Thursday night. A weak frontal system attached to a Canadian cyclone will track across Northern NY on Thursday. With dry antecedent conditions in place, precipitation is not anticipated over our forecast area with the cold front, which is expected to knock temperatures down a degree or two for late Thursday. Ridging builds back in behind Thursday's front bringing dry and warmer air back into the region.
Current surface analysis depicts a weak cold front across central Wisconsin. Behind the front weak high pressure will collapse the pressure gradient which will keep winds fairly light today. The high will become reestablished across the Ohio Valley tonight and Friday. A strengthening upper ridge ahead of low pressure across the west and increasing southwest low level flow will pump up temperatures some 15 degrees above normal.
In the upper levels high pressure is centered over the Western Gulf of Mexico with ridging extending northward into the Mid Mississippi River Valley. This ridge will shift eastward toward Alabama through tonight. Temperatures are expected moderate a few degrees warmer today and tonight.
Humidity values at 3 AM were anomalously low with readings in the upper 20 percent range in the Arrowhead and along the Gogebic Range in north-central Wisconsin and the low 60 percent range in southern Cass and Pine Counties. Look for humidity values to fall rapidly again today with dewpoints in the 20s and temperatures rising into the low 60s northeast to low 70s in the St. A warm front is forecast to lift into the Northland this afternoon which may buoy dewpoints in central Minnesota. Have kept temperatures a little warmer tonight as a result.
Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s, with everyone solidly into the mid 70s Friday.