Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HENCE THE LOW POPS. EVEN AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC ARE STILL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS A WARM AND COLD LAYER JUST ABOVE. KEPT A THUNDER MENTION GOING AS THERE STILL IS A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW AND WE ARE STILL GETTING LIGHTNING REPORTS. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE PRODUCING SOME PRECIP RIGHT ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AFTER 09Z OR SO AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON NOT MUCH COMING FROM IT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN BUT NOT AS COLD AS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
944 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. MAINLY TO LOWER A FEW TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS AND TO RAISE SOME COASTAL SECTIONS 1-3F.
514 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 LOW PRESSURE WRAPPING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEAST LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. AS THE LOW RAPIDLY EXITS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT AND THE STRATUS TO EXIT WHICH WILL SET UP A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN THE LOCATION WHERE WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT RELATIVE TO OUR AREA AND THE EJECTION OF THE NOW-DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.
838 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND THE STORMS MOVE INTO AN AREA OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE THRUST NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW INTO OUR REGION.
WAA LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWERING CEILINGS.
A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
347 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY TODAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES THIS WEEKEND AS QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME IS INTERRUPTED BY A DEEP TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. THAT TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONG 170+ KT JET DIVING SOUTH ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON.
351 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED AND REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS AND A AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.
126 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE INROADS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
1222 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
A ZONAL UPPER FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U. WITH A STRONG 150 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. WITH THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATING LATE. THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS FAIRLY RAPID TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER.
1150 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A PREVAILING SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP THE FETCH LIMITED OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS. THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CREEPS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE TAKEN AN EAST NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE WRN U. SFC OBS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 BUT NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE SREF MODELS INDICATE FOG GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LACK OF RADIATIVE COOLING.
1114 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
353 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GA COAST BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO MOVE IN WITH IT. ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
429 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
241 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 SURFACE MAP AT 08Z SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND VFR CIGS.
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. GENERATING COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
1240 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
321 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER TODAY AS IOWA WITH BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BY LATE IN THE DAY A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE COOLER.
220 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT/LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY COURTESY OF A BROAD UA TROUGH COMMENCING TO IMPINGE ON THE WRN CONUS. SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH BY THE AFTN. ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG NEARING THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS WILL BE MORE SRLY AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST THERE.
A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES - WELL ABOVE AVG FOR MID-DECEMBER - AS SUB- TROPICAL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY STIRRING AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY TO HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GOM AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH FURTHER WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. LOWS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRI NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW/LONG WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BUT AXIS OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS SHIFTS WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
A large upper level trough of low pressure will strengthen over the Mountain West through the weekend, forcing Gulf Moisture and warmth to remain established across the Ozarks.
MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AIDED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
South winds are expected to increase in speed to around 15 knots and turn more westerly with time during the day all the while remaining in the warm sector ahead of a slowly approaching cold front from the north. Differences between the consensus mos guidance and the model consensus vary between the low 70s and the the mid to upper 60s respectively.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF WILL USHER IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1054 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015 SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO FREEZING OR A LITTLE COLDER LATE. FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY SOME COOLING FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW SHOULD PASS WEAKLY EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE BARE BEGINNINGS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY START TO SET UP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SHOW A NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
944 PM MST THU DEC 10 2015 TROWAL/OCCLUDED FRONTAL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST HAS LIFTED NE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NE PORTIONS OF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN ADDITION WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES AND A GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
500 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
WAA will only deepen with time, as upper flow backs to swlys in response to long wave troffing in Desert Southwest. Sat night-Sun night, we see the long wave trof making its moving into/across the central U. , and driving a cold front toward the PAH FA. Strong winds aloft with deep moisture is waiting to be tapped, but instability is virtually non existent despite surface temps nr records around 70 over the weekend and dew point temps into the lower 60s.
1040 PM MST THU DEC 10 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED TROWAL/OCCLUDED FRONTAL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST HAS LIFTED NE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NE PORTIONS OF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z IN THE CUT BANK AREAS. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THRU 15Z FRI.
226 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL IMPACT THE NE/EC PLAINS TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS TRYING TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER AZ AND INTO NW NM THIS AFTERNOON.
733 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
LOWS MAY BE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF NORTH TEXAS AND BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
828 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW IS ALMOST TO BILLINGS AT 8 PM. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LEWISTOWN ON TRACK FOR AN EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY UNTIL A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING A BIT OF UPSLOPE.
430 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT'S DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. AND THIS REPRESENTS ONE OF THE ONLY AREAS THAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
745 PM MST SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1025 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 CURRENTLY - A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE SLIDING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST OF THE TX COAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL PUSH OVER THE TOP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
730 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND WAS NOW LOCATED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS WHICH WILL CONTAIN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT.
755 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS OVER LINCOLN AND ELBERT COUNTIES. A RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH.
1033 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
1053 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT.
709 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
WITH RATHER WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND PALTRY LAPSE RATES, IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM GULF LOW PRESSURE, MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AGAIN SUNDAY.
910 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
/ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN EASES NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA ACROSS MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS COMING WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THROUGH TIME.
A low pressure system over central Tennessee is expected to slowly drift to the north tonight as it becomes absorbed into the upper flow. Spotty showers have remained west of IL so far today, despite the high resolution models indicating plenty of showers possible as far west as the Illinois River. The overall dry air mass in place across central Illinois ahead of the low seems to be too much for the weak forcing and limited moisture to overcome to produce rainfall. Satellite trends support increasing cloud cover from SE to NW tonight, which will work to keep lows a bit warmer than under clear conditions. However, despite the low overall rain threat, there will be a chance of precipitation from time to time.
1054 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
739 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG A SOME WHAT ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WEST INTO NORTHERN MAINE. THE MODELS HAVE HAVE HAD A FAIR HANDLE ON THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY CREEPING NW. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BESIDES HIGH PRESSURE.
740 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL MAINTAIN DRY WARM WEATHER, FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
703 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A seasonably warm afternoon is underway across this region at this hour, with temperatures ranging from the low 80s west to the upper 70s east, where a large cloud deck has started to move west into the forecast area. These clouds are associated with a weakening area of upper level low pressure, which is meandering its way across the lower Ohio Valley.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. 30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION. AN ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
624 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A low pressure system over central Tennessee is expected to slowly drift to the north tonight as it becomes absorbed into the upper flow. Spotty showers have remained west of IL so far today, despite the high resolution models indicating plenty of showers possible as far west as the Illinois River. The overall dry air mass in place across central Illinois ahead of the low seems to be too much for the weak forcing and limited moisture to overcome to produce rainfall. Satellite trends support increasing cloud cover from SE to NW tonight, which will work to keep lows a bit warmer than under clear conditions. However, despite the low overall rain threat, there will be a chance of precipitation from time to time.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 13. /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN BAKER CITY AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
713 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY TOWARD THE MID OHIO VALLEY. AND GRADUALLY FILLING UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.
BUT ALSO FROM THE NE ALONG WEAK SFC RIDGING NEAR/JUST S OF A WEAK H850 LOW SITUATED OVER NE AR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR OVER SE TX/SRN LA NE OF THE WRN GULF UPPER LOW HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. BUT DEEPENING MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR/S OF THE ATTENDENT INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CLOUD COVER N OF THE WRN GULF UPPER LOW.
LOWS NEAR 70 ACRS INLD SE GA AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SLOW DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS/FOG AND ENOUGH HEATING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S COAST AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S INLAND.
Skies were sunny this afternoon as high pressure ridge was slowly building into eastern Kansas. Temperatures warmed a bit warmer than earlier forecast. Areas from Garnett to Lawrence may see some increase in clouds later tonight as a weak upper low in Tennessee moves westward into eastern Missouri, but mostly cloudy skies should remain to the east in Missouri.
OVERALL FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM US. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 78 64 78 / 40 30 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 80 61 78 / 20 20 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 79 63 79 / 20 20 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 79 60 74 / 30 20 20 30.
813 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING MILD CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE BROAD UPPER LOW/WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA TO THE N. LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE STILL SHOWING THIS FEATURE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MORE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CONUS ON SUN. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS STILL POINT TO SOME TYPE OF SFC/UPPER LOW REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GULF SUN/MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WED/INTO THU. WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SFC SETTLING INTO THE AREA. ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURE IN THE CNTRL/ERN GULF SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THIS ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SCATTER WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFT 18Z.
956 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA ACROSS MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
1011 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
953 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
1236 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.