Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: The weak mid level trough over TX will begin to slowly move east through the period and bring a gradual increase in mid level moisture. Also, while initially light, surface winds will begin to increase over western portions Monday and further increase moisture in the lower levels. In the southerly flow regime, warmer conditions will be back in full force, with high temps beginning to push the 80s on Tuesday.
Pre-frontal troughs to move across the mid state Wed nt and again Thu nt. Low shower chances will then be in play into the weekend with the slow passage of a closed low to our north. Best chances for the more widespread rainfall looks like Wed nt and possibly Thu night as well as those troughs push through.
Winds will be generally light at 10mph or less across the region as high pressure moves into the region.
A LLJ is also projected to develop on the lee-side of this trough, nosing into the SW portion of the forecast area by Tuesday evening.
323 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather is expected until a warm front returns scattered showers to the region late today. This wave, and a slow moving warm front, should result in scattered showers returning to the region later this afternoon as they approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
924 PM PDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Warm weather and above average temperatures away from the coast will continue through the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure remains over California. A shallow marine layer will keep the weather cooler at the coast, along with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog. A low pressure system passing to our north will increase the onshore pressure gradient tonight through Tuesday morning. The ridge aloft will be slightly weakened by the low passing early in the week, but not weakened enough to knock temperatures back down to their seasonal average. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than over the weekend, but still warm Monday and Tuesday, especially in the deserts. Ridging strengthens into Wednesay, resulting in a warm up before a very slow cooling into the end of the week.
Rain chances will increase for mid-week, when a slow moving low pressure system approaches from the west. Lows tonight will remain mild, in the upper 40s near the Indiana border to the lower 50s west of I-55. As these conditions persist tonight we expect mild lows in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s south of I-70.
203 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure through Tuesday. A temperature and especially dew point gradient sets up over the area this afternoon, and then shifts north of the area tonight, as the southeast tip of a warm front noses into the area today, and then northeastward tonight. A weak backdoor cold front may drift southwest towards our far north and northeast CWA by Tuesday, possibly resulting in a shower occurrence for those areas. Elsewhere, a rather meager atmospheric moisture column is prog to prevail and also remain under a greater influence of surface-H85 high pressure.
404 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 The passage of a ridge axis at 850mb and low pressure organizing over the northern plains open the door for warm and moist southwest flow to direct over southeast Michigan this morning. This will work to strengthen an elevated warm front over the region today as the surface front is held just to the southwest. A wave moves into the northern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday and helps usher the surface warm front through SE Michigan. As the wave departs, midlevel ridging amplifies overhead and leads to a mild and mainly dry Tuesday night.
352 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Weak upper ridge over the Western US extends into the area this morning as next upper low moves across WA and OR. This low will move across the Intermountain West today.
307 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal can be expected for the upcoming work-week as the center of high pressure anchors across the SE States.
118 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week. A cold front will approach the area near the end of the week. Early this morning: High pressure will continue to prevail across the Southeast through sunrise with clear skies.
Upper level ridging will continue to flatten out tonight into tomorrow, though well above normal temperatures are expected to continue. Across the higher terrain, a some light rain/virga has developed, and these should continue through the early evening hours under very modest (SBCAPE near 250 J/kg) instability. Warm temperatures are likely overnight, with lows in the low to mid 40s across the plains. Aloft, 700mb temperatures should be about 1C warmer than today, which should translate to surface temperatures a couple degrees warmer than today. More details on the cooler temperatures and rain chances below. An upper low/trough will move into western Colorado by 12Z Tuesday morning.
Lows tonight will be a tad warmer as low level moisture slowly continues to increase. Surface winds will increase out of the south to southwest on Monday as the low level pressure gradient tightens ahead of developing low pressure across the central high Plains. Upper level low pressure will close off across the central Rockies on Monday night and Tuesday.
227 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure through Tuesday. A temperature and especially dew point gradient sets up over the area this afternoon, and then shifts north of the area tonight, as the southeast tip of a warm front noses into the area today, and then northeastward tonight.
Negatively-tilted troughing/cutoff upper low off the New England coast will generate a strengthening ocean storm off the Canadian Maritime region that will maintain a deep and dry northwesterly flow pattern over the region. Surface ridging centered directly over the area will gradually weaken and will essentially remain in place through tonight. Full sunshine this afternoon will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s to near 70 at coastal locations. A light southwest flow with abundant sunshine will produce warmer temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes will keep the coast cooler with highs in the low/mid 70s.
There will also be some passing high cirrus clouds as a mid level trough passes well to our north.
The 850mb thermal ridge will begin an eastward expansion into our area today. Given the surface pressure gradient and with mixing effects from the low-level jet, expect breezy south winds to continue for much of our area overnight.
1231 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal can be expected for the upcoming work-week as the center of high pressure anchors across the SE States.
358 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be near critical fire weather conditions today along with cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. As the S/WV continues east today, a cold front will push south across the Northern Plains, dropping temperatures and bringing another period of gusty northerly winds to around 25 mph.
1209 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather continues with high pressure into Monday. During this period, an upper low will spin offshore of New England, while ridging very slowly moves eastward into the Ohio Valley.
This will mainly be gusty winds, increased fire concerns, light showers, and cooler temperatures.
711 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure through Tuesday. Forecast on track, as nocturnal warm advection convection rumbles upstream, across the lower Great Lakes. A temperature and especially dew point gradient sets up over the area this afternoon, and then shifts north of the area tonight, as the southeast tip of a warm front noses into the area today, and then northeastward tonight.
Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will be centered over southern Alabama/Georgia with southerly return flow across the CWA. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon with overnight low temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s.
Southerly winds ahead of this trough will bring up warm air, with dewpoints in the lower 50s.
1040 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure centered over northern Florida supports moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys.
A cold front will move through western and central North Dakota today, with north winds around 20 mph and gusts to 40 mph following the front. It will also be much cooler, especially north and west, but continued dry. Main update was to increase winds and speed up the timing of the cold front this morning. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be near critical fire weather conditions today along with cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. As the S/WV continues east today, a cold front will push south across the Northern Plains, dropping temperatures and bringing another period of gusty northerly winds to around 25 mph.
947 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure dominating the weather pattern across South Florida. Winds will be generally light at 10mph or less across the region as high pressure moves into the region.
456 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Quiet weather for a couple days, under low amplitude ridging aloft.
Widely scattered light rain is continuing across portions of the northern ranchlands and is expected to shift toward the coast as the 500mb trough axis heads offshore.
343 AM MDT Mon Apr 5 2021 The upper ridge has broken down and the region is mostly in zonal flow aloft. Winds will increase slightly over the higher terrain and portions of the adjacent plains by the late afternoon with some areas seeing gusting up to 25 mph at times.
Minimal clouds and continued warm air advection into the region ahead of a cold front will help to push temperatures above the current records resulting in a good chance that records will be broken at all sites. A low pressure system will move off the Rockies and deepen across the central Plains.
In turn lee troughing will continue to deepen during the day. A cold front will extend to the north-northeast over the Sandhills.
944 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week. A cold front will approach the area near the end of the week. High pressure will be the dominant feature at the surface today, although a weak trough will reside to the north. Highs are forecast to peak in the upper 70s/around 80 away from the locally cooler coastline. Tonight: The tranquil pattern will persist as high pressure remains the primary weather feature. Inland locations will likely dip in to the upper 40s while the coastal corridor falls into the low to mid 50s.
08z sfc analysis shows high pressure hovering over the southern portion of the area. Once again, this has kept the skies mostly clear overnight along with light winds supporting a large ridge to valley temperature difference. Readings vary from the mid and upper 30s in the most sheltered spots to the mid 50s on the ridges. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are generally around 40 in the valleys to the upper 20s and lower 30s on the ridges. They all depict a slowly building ridge moving into the region through Tuesday. More sunshine, filtered at times through sparse mid and high clouds, will support temperatures in the low to mid 70s for highs today and Tuesday. Look for another pretty large ridge to valley difference in temperatures tonight with the valley lows at or below the 05% values from the NBM (again).
620 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry conditions expected today and tomorrow with a stubborn area of high pressure over NY and NE PA.
Upper trough shifts southeast from the PacNW into the Rockies over the next 24 hours. The system will drag a dry cold front south through the Great Basin today with NorCal on the western fringe. Moisture is very limited, so only a few sprinkles are possible over the high Sierra as the front passes through. Otherwise, ridging will result in dry weather with a little milder temperatures this week.
1002 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure in place will keep dry conditions in place for the next couple of days. High pressure in place across the waters through much of the week will keep a general east to southeast flow in place with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast each day.
650 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal can be expected for the upcoming work-week as the center of high pressure anchors across the SE States.
447 AM MDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Current surface map shows weak low over western North Dakota with cold front advancing through southeast Montana. Cold front moves through northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota early this morning. Upper low tracks crosses Rockies into the central plains Tuesday. Thermal profiles support all snow in the higher Black Hills, with snow/rain mix on the plains. The other area that could see a few inches of snow accumulation would be along the Pine Ridge in southwest South Dakota Tuesday night.
643 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 An elevated warm front will push into Se Mi today. The surface warm front will stall over SW Lower Mi this afternoon/tonight. The passage of a ridge axis at 850mb and low pressure organizing over the northern plains open the door for warm and moist southwest flow to direct over southeast Michigan this morning. This will work to strengthen an elevated warm front over the region today as the surface front is held just to the southwest. A wave moves into the northern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday and helps usher the surface warm front through SE Michigan. As the wave departs, midlevel ridging amplifies overhead and leads to a mild and mainly dry Tuesday night.
A bit warmer as temps climb into the upper 70s along the coast and to around 80 degrees inland. VFR conditions prevail through the period as high pressure remains overhead. High pressure settles across the Central Fl today resulting in light/variable (even calm) winds into early afternoon.
536 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Tuesday with upper level ridging over the region along with persistent south- southwesterly surface winds. GKS Convection should spread into northeast and central MO late Tuesday night with increasing upper level divergence over this area ahead of an approaching upper level trough/low moving into the Central Plains, and as a strong southwesterly low level jet brings increasing low level moisture into the region.
634 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Main update was to increase winds and speed up the timing of the cold front this morning. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be near critical fire weather conditions today along with cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. As the S/WV continues east today, a cold front will push south across the Northern Plains, dropping temperatures and bringing another period of gusty northerly winds to around 25 mph.
430 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Tuesday with upper level ridging over the region along with persistent south- southwesterly surface winds. GKS Convection should spread into northeast and central MO late Tuesday night with increasing upper level divergence over this area ahead of an approaching upper level trough/low moving into the Central Plains, and as a strong southwesterly low level jet brings increasing low level moisture into the region.
1036 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure centered south of the region will result in a continuation of dry and warm conditions. A slow moving cold front will bring an increasing chance of rain for mid to late week. For Tuesday, surface warm front has shifted further to the north with higher confidence in dry conditions across the forecast area. Mid-level ridge amplifies over the region as a closed low advances east out of the Rockies.
With the upper level trough exiting to the west, high pressure will build in overhead today. This will produce a mostly clear, dry, and mild Monday for the area, and although temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, they will still trend a bit warmer than normal for this time of year.
/issued 456 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021/ Quiet weather for a couple days, under low amplitude ridging aloft.
The big news for today is the approaching cold front from the northwest. Outside of the fire weather concerns, expect an increase in clouds towards the evening hours with a few showers possible for the highest elevations of the Park Range. Tuesday morning, the cold front will be just entering our CWA as the upper level closed low scoots along the UT/CO border. High temperatures on Tuesday will be about 20 degrees cooler than those seen today except for the southern valleys which will see highs drop about 10. Increased clouds, cooler temps, and increased humidities will preclude any fire weather issues for the northern valleys Tuesday but, unfortunately, the same can't be said for the southern valleys.
731 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather is expected until a warm front returns scattered showers to the region late today. This wave, and a slow moving warm front, should result in scattered showers returning to the region later this afternoon as they approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
High pressure centered over our area will continue to gradually weaken as it shifts southward into north central FL this afternoon and then central FL overnight tonight. A deep and dry northwesterly flow pattern will also continue locally, as cutoff troughing remains in place off New England and ridging aloft over the western Gulf of Mexico only gradually expands northeastward. Strong radiational cooling will continue tonight beneath fair skies, with lows falling to the mid and upper 40s inland and the lower 50s at area beaches, where a light south-southwesterly breeze will prevail throughout the overnight hours.
Rain chances are expected to diminish across the area overnight as weak ridging settles in, but slight rain chances may return again on Tuesday with the approach of the next disturbance. Highs today will range from the mid 70s along the coast to the mid 80s out west, while highs on Tuesday will warm into the upper 70s along the coast to the low 90s across portions of the Brush Country.
635 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week. A cold front will approach the area near the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure will be centered south of the forecast area which will result in westerly flow this morning. Tonight: The tranquil pattern will persist as high pressure remains the primary weather feature. Inland locations will likely dip in to the upper 40s while the coastal corridor falls into the low to mid 50s.
446 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 A cold front will move through the region today.
Areas where shower and thunderstorm activity will occur today will be a bit cooler with highs in the low 70s.
532 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather is expected until a warm front returns scattered showers to the region late today. This wave, and a slow moving warm front, should result in scattered showers returning to the region later this afternoon as they approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
926 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal can be expected for the upcoming work-week as the center of high pressure anchors across the SE States.
649 AM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure centered south of the region will result in a continuation of dry and warm conditions. A slow moving cold front will bring an increasing chance of rain for mid to late week. A surface warm front, as marked by an isobaric trough, slowly drifts north into northern Ohio into the afternoon hours. Aloft, within northwesterly mid-level flow, a weak disturbance will provide sufficient lift to initiate showers and thunderstorms within the lower Great Lakes. Otherwise, southwesterly flow and mostly sunny skies promote another above average day with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s. For Tuesday, surface warm front has shifted further to the north with higher confidence in dry conditions across the forecast area. Mid-level ridge amplifies over the region as a closed low advances east out of the Rockies.
Low temps early Tuesday will also be +5-10F warmer across much of the region. The sfc warm frontal boundary drifts a bit more to the east on Tuesday and into our Wrn Mtn zones by 21Z Tue.
453 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Quiet weather for a couple days, under low amplitude ridging aloft.
Daytime highs will also be fairly similar to yesterday: mid to upper 50s along the coastline with widespread 60s inland and a few spots reaching the low 70s. Daytime highs will gently nudge up on Tuesday by a few degrees with weak ridging overhead and a slight uptick in 850 mb temperatures.
Once again, the low-levels appear to be too dry so any accumulations are expected to be trace amounts. Overnight lows will be in the low-to-mid 60s tonight. This will cause another day of isolated showers across our region with the greatest chances in the afternoon due to daytime heating and onshore flow invigorating the low levels enough to initiate convection. A gradual warming trend will continue on Tuesday with daytime highs reaching the low-to-mid 80s across SE Texas and overnight lows reaching in the mid-60s to near 70.
High pressure will keep conditions sunny and a few degrees warmer than yesterday. High pressure will result in dry weather and VFR conditions through the period at all sites. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 50 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 49 75 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 76 48 75 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 45 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 10.
627 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 A cold front will move through the region today.
Unseasonably hot weather will continue across much of the region today along with the addition of gusty west winds as a low pressure system passes over northern Nevada. A low pressure system dropping out of the Pacific Northwest and clipping northern Nevada will be the cause of the increasing winds. Speeds will decrease after sunset and winds will become northwest to north overnight as a weak front pushes through southern Nevada which will lead to temperatures about 10 degrees cooler on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the desert zones.
High pressure remains in control with mostly sunny to sunny skies and light winds. High pressure centered over our area will continue to gradually weaken as it shifts southward into north central FL this afternoon and then central FL overnight tonight. A deep and dry northwesterly flow pattern will also continue locally, as cutoff troughing remains in place off New England and ridging aloft over the western Gulf of Mexico only gradually expands northeastward. Strong radiational cooling will continue tonight beneath fair skies, with lows falling to the mid and upper 40s inland and the lower 50s at area beaches, where a light south-southwesterly breeze will prevail throughout the overnight hours.
A low pressure system will cut-off this morning as it digs into southern Idaho. Moisture will continue to wrap around this feature, with widespread light to moderate precipitation occurring through much of the day along and south of the Highway 12 corridor. This will allow for accumulating snow over mountain passes (Lolo, Lost Trail, MacDonald and Homestake) and the higher elevation valleys of southwest Montana. As the low pressure system gradual moves to the southeast this afternoon, precipitation intensity will decrease.
1041 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 Continue to watch the progression of the cold front as it moves southeast across the Dakotas. May have to expand it eastward even more, but a bit more uncertainty there whether or not the lowest RH coincides with the strongest wind gusts. A cold front will move through the region today.
High pressure will return for the middle of the upcoming week, allowing mild temperatures to return.
151 PM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States with weak stationary front from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
Expect another night of cloudy skies, along with slightly warmer temperatures than the last few mornings, generally in the lower 60s. Tuesday will be a warmer day, with morning clouds and a good bit of afternoon sunshine as the area will be between weather systems.