Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There was a nearly stationary trough axis at the surface which extended southwest to northeast across western Kansas, but there was no temperature gradient tied to this wind shift. There will, however, be a weak cold front which will work its way south tonight across Kansas with a bump in northeast wind speeds. Post-frontal upslope low level winds will favor development of loosely organized convection on the higher terrain of Colorado, which will likely evolve into one or two fairly short-lived, small MCSs as they move southeast across southeastern Colorado.
950 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 High temperatures will peak slightly cooler this afternoon east of the Continental Divide where the front pushed through this morning. The ridge will strengthen today as a mid/upper level low to our north continues to move east.
Latest analysis shows the center of the low pressure system is now located over eastern North Dakota, producing a tight surface pressure gradient over the forecast area. The winds will decrease early this evening as diurnal heating subsides and the low pressure system continues to move eastward and away from the area. The upper ridge will rebound over the area on Wednesday, and high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to mid-90s.
Water vapour loop showed upper low over northeast MN and upper ridge over the four corners area. Amplifying upper/thermal ridge over the CWA combined with downslope flow will lead to a hot day as temperatures push into the 90s on the plains.
405 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 A weak ridge of high pressure will hold through today.
1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Key Points: * "Cooler" conditions mid-week.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, and winds on land mostly from the east at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the central Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward across the Florida peninsula and the central Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is maintaining somewhat stronger easterly flow than is typical for late July over the Keys. A similar pattern prevails aloft, with the subtropical ridge axis extending from just south of Bermuda to South Florida to the western Gulf. Little change in our overall pattern at the surface or aloft is expected during the next several days, with the dominant subtropical ridge to our north maintaining stronger than typical easterly flow.
An upper level low is evident on water vapor in the Northern Plains early this afternoon with a cold front extending southward along the Dakotas/Minnesota border than turns southwestward into northwest Kansas. At 230 PM temperatures were variable based on cloud cover and ranged from the mid 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices were in the lower to mid 90s. Increased winds for tomorrow behind the cold front. Discussion: Models are in good overall agreement that the upper level low current in the Northern Plains will shift east southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. This will drive cold front across the area overnight.
Early this morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a deep closed low centered over northeast Minnesota, a broad high over the Desert Southwest, and northwest flow over the Dakotas between these two features. The main impacts from this trough will be breezy northwest winds and a slight chance for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms in central North Dakota this afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s in the far northwest, where the front will reach first, to the lower 90s in the south central and James River Valley.
DHT may also experience a few showers with MVFR visibilities behind the cold front.
251 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2022 High pressure will shift over AZ today keeping us in west-northwest flow. With all that said like previous days storms will develop over the higher terrain around mid-day and drift out over the valleys through the afternoon and early evening. With warm temperatures and dry low levels a majority of the lower valleys will stay dry.
GOES satellite imagery this morning continues to feature an abnormally strong trough for this time of year centered over the MN/WI region moving eastward over the Great Lakes. To the south of the system, a cold front is being dragged eastward and past the local forecast area with strong mid/upper high pressure building across the western third of the CONUS. Thanks to the passage of the cold front, highs get knocked down a few degrees while dewpoints end up slashed compared to yesterday making it much more bearable outside.
348 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Upper level high pressure will continue to result in hot temperatures across the forecast area today. However, temperatures are not expected to be as hot as yesterday as the center of the upper ridge is progged to shift slightly westward and the portion of the ridge overhead weakens slightly. A trough extending westward from the low will move into the northeastern third or so of the forecast area with surface winds initially from the north to northeast to the north of the trough and a weaker surface pressure gradient resulting in weaker wind speeds overall across the forecast area. This shift in wind speed and/or direction combined with decreased 1000-500 mb thicknesses point to high temperatures generally 4-8 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the expansive 596 dm upper level ridge spinning over the Desert Southwest, with its eastern edge extending into west Texas. For Wednesday the low level thermal ridge weakens slightly so temperatures may be slightly 'cooler'.
240 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the period.
(Today and tonight) Oklahoma remains under the strong influence of the large heat dome with the major axis of the upper ridge extending from the southern plains westward to New Mexico and Arizona. This morning this precipitation is associated with the trailing end of an upper trough that is moving east of the state.
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 As the upper level trough tracks across North Dakota and progresses east this evening into tomorrow, temperatures are expected to stay in the 90's across the region on Wednesday. The upper level ridge builds back into the region as the high pressure positions itself over the Four Corners bringing hot and dry conditions back into the forecast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 75 94 73 95 / 40 40 40 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 74 92 71 94 / 50 40 40 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 73 91 70 94 / 40 40 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 71 88 67 91 / 40 50 40 10 0.
Clear skies and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected over the coming days as upper level high pressure remains overhead. /ISSUED 251 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022/ Clear skies, generally light winds, and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through the remainder of the work week as we remain on the northern edge of an upper level ridge.
1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance keeps upper level ridge axis to our west with trough to our east in the short term. This will drag an associated cold front through the forecast area. Then latest NAM, GFS and RAP forecast soundings are still indicating decent mixing to at least 850mb across central Missouri, as well as the Ozarks during the afternoon hours, so expect the higher dewpoints in this area will lower into the low to mid 60s. The highest heat index values will be over Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties topping out between 105 and 109 degrees. Then on back side of the cold front, lows Wednesday night will be near normal in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Despite this slight increase in cold advection Wednesday morning, the influence of the summer sun and the upper level ridge will support afternoon highs mainly in the 97-101F range. Later Wednesday afternoon, various CAM guidance agrees thunderstorms will form along the higher terrain in eastern CO and congeal into a loosely organized convective system that will track southeast.
234 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Today: Pronounced mid/upper low currently spinning through northern MN will continue to allow for breezy northwesterly surface winds through at least the first half of the day (especially north of I- 90) before the SPG begins to relax into the afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50s and a relatively light wind will allow for overnight lows to sink into the lower to mid 60s.
Upper trof near Lake Superior will continue to rotate east away from the region today, with slackening winds expected.
This boundary moves a bit further south today as a mid to upper level ridge builds into N GA. This ridge will allow temps to increase into the mid 90s Thu afternoon. Max high temperatures today will get up into the lower 90s with nighttime lows mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
Given that features movement, this line of showers and storms will wane as it moves inland with light showers expected to move across the lower peninsula reaching the US 127 corridor around sunrise. --Gusty winds and a marginal risk this afternoon-- The cold front is currently extending from the low over the Upper Great Lakes and down across WI. Once the cold front arrives, around 18Z, winds will shift to the WNW and remain gusty. However, the eastern side of the state is in a slight risk which, as noted in previous discussions is due to troposphere folding associated with the upper low moving across Michigan. The upper level low will move across the Upper pennisula and trek into Ontario. The cold front and the corresponding long wave trough will move across Michigan this afternoon and evening.
146 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 A mid-level trough will drift east over the area the next few days, maintaining afternoon storm chances.
Dry conditions will continue today with heat indices pushing into the 90s as gradually strengthening southwest flow draws in warmer and higher moisture air. This evening, upstream convection will move ahead of a weak front, enter eastern OH zones by mid-evening, cross PGH metro around midnight, and push east of the ridges just before daybreak.
821 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Strong high pressure will remain over the Southwest this week, maintaining hot weather inland, while onshore flow and a shallow marine layer keep coastal areas cooler, with periods of night and morning low clouds. Moderate onshore sfc pressure gradients from the coast to the lower deserts were pulling some gusty winds through the desert passes this evening. Based on our 00Z Miramar sounding, the lower atmosphere has warmed some 4-6C over yesterday, and the inversion height was just over 1400 FT MSL, which was about 200 FT lower than yesterday afternoon. A strong upper level ridge over the southwest will wobble around a bit through the end of the week, with very subtle changes in the upper level temperatures and airmass profile.
before winds eventually shift and become more southerly on the backside of this high later in the week. As the winds turn more southerly and heights aloft build in response to an upper level ridge transitioning across the area.
300 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Summary: A quieter and slightly cooler pattern is expected for the remainder of the week. Low pressure was centered over the Twin Ports early this morning with an area of showers pinwheeling around the low. This low will slowly move to the east as the day progresses bringing an end to the showers from west to east by this afternoon.
Should continue to see the temperatures fall into the upper 60s across northern Missouri and northeast Kansas and into the lower 70s further south over the next several hours. Breezy north winds will help to keep daytime temperatures slightly cooler today behind the front, and with lower dewpoints, heat indices will stay below 100 degrees.
229 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure centered over Utah in the Intermountain West sends a weak ridge spur northward through western Montana and the Front Range of Canada.
510 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2022 High pressure will shift over AZ today keeping us in west-northwest flow. With all that said like previous days storms will develop over the higher terrain around mid-day and drift out over the valleys through the afternoon and early evening. With warm temperatures and dry low levels a majority of the lower valleys will stay dry.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Northern Rockies today. Temperatures today should be around 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday.
539 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Today: Pronounced mid/upper low currently spinning through northern MN will continue to allow for breezy northwesterly surface winds through at least the first half of the day (especially north of I- 90) before the SPG begins to relax into the afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50s and a relatively light wind will allow for overnight lows to sink into the lower to mid 60s.
603 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Oklahoma remains under the strong influence of the large heat dome with the major axis of the upper ridge extending from the southern plains westward to New Mexico and Arizona. This morning this precipitation is associated with the trailing end of an upper trough that is moving east of the state.
Dry zonal flow aloft and weak ridging will maintain a warm and dry weather pattern through Thursday. Skies are mostly clear this morning, but a weak cold front associated with a passing weather disturbance is bringing a few clouds north of the Cut Bank area. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly warmer than yesterday and will increase another few degrees on Thursday.
Only slightly cooler and less humid for Thursday, then the heat and chances for storms return for the weekend. Tonight quiet weather with drier air mass in place, dewpoints look to return to the lower to mid 60s and air temperatures will be slightly cooler than last night with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s. On Thursday, a return to a more zonal pattern aloft with elongated ridging stretching west to east in the southern CONUS will develop.
955 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Summary: A quieter and slightly cooler pattern is expected for the remainder of the week. Low pressure was centered over the Twin Ports early this morning with an area of showers pinwheeling around the low. This low will slowly move to the east as the day progresses bringing an end to the showers from west to east by this afternoon. Dry conditions take over for Thursday as high pressure moves through the region.
753 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 The ridge axis remains across the region with southwest flow generally north of Interstate 4 and southeast to south flow further south. Deepest moisture remains across north Florida and expect the highest rain chances to persist across the northern Nature Coast with diminishing chances as you go further south and closer to the coast. High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the period.
Winds will gradually turn more to the northeast and east this afternoon ahead of another short wave trough that will be moving into the Panhandles from the northwest late this afternoon and tonight. The next short wave trough is expected to produce more showers and thunderstorms for our area Thursday and Thursday night as it moves southward through the region.
632 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Summary: A quieter and slightly cooler pattern is expected for the remainder of the week. Low pressure was centered over the Twin Ports early this morning with an area of showers pinwheeling around the low. This low will slowly move to the east as the day progresses bringing an end to the showers from west to east by this afternoon. Dry conditions take over for Thursday as high pressure moves through the region.
Generally the forecast will prevail with VFR visibilities and ceilings to 2500 ft throughout the morning and afternoon due to upper level ridging being in firm control of today's weather. Southwest winds will increase to 11 - 15 kt with higher gusts as gradient flow tightens between high pressure over the northern Gulf and low developing in the Midwest.
Warmer than average temperatures will continue this week with a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly south and east of Tucson. A bit of a change will be the upper level high center over the area will be shifting a little to the west allowing for a bit more northeasterly flow vs easterly. The main concern will be strong winds thanks to the high DCAPE available later this afternoon. It will be another warm one with highs 3-5 degrees warmer than average. Will be a degree or so warmer than today as well.
CAMs are pretty quiet during the day though, and more activity is expected later in the evening and overnight with a weak cold front moving through at the surface tonight/Thursday associated with a trough to our north.
447 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 High pressure over the southwest states will continue the seasonally hot weather for inland areas into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.
GOES satellite imagery this morning continues to feature an abnormally strong trough for this time of year centered over the MN/WI region moving eastward over the Great Lakes. To the south of the system, a cold front is being dragged eastward and past the local forecast area with strong mid/upper high pressure building across the western third of the CONUS. Thanks to the passage of the cold front, highs get knocked down a few degrees while dewpoints end up slashed compared to yesterday making it much more bearable outside. As the aforementioned trough continues to push eastward, it's moisture-scouring influence is expected to wayne over the course of the day Thursday, with dewpoints beginning to rebound into the low-to-mid 60's by Thursday evening.
1025 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Visible satelitte imagery depicts a ridge axis positioned just onshore of south Florida contributing to the easterly winds across our area. High pressure centered to the east of Bermuda and extending westward across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend.
Should continue to see the temperatures fall into the upper 60s across northern Missouri and northeast Kansas and into the lower 70s further south over the next several hours. Breezy north winds will help to keep daytime temperatures slightly cooler today behind the front, and with lower dewpoints, heat indices will stay below 100 degrees. A fairly broad ridge will stay rooted over the Desert Southwest this week, but will start to shift eastwards this weekend as a PacNW trough moves inland. The thermal ridge will also shift north and east with time.
Dry conditions will continue today with heat indices pushing into the 90s as gradually strengthening southwest flow draws in warmer and higher moisture air. This evening, upstream convection will move ahead of a weak front, enter eastern OH zones by mid-evening, cross PGH metro around midnight, and push east of the ridges just before daybreak. The weak cold front will do relatively little to change conditions over the area as hot and muggy conditions continue Thursday.
High pressure centered near the four-corners region continues to bring moist and unstable air up into central and northeastern NV.
Along with this wave, a weak cold front is also expected to drop southeast, setting up along a Hallock to Jamestown line by 7 pm.
The upper- level ridge looks to remain dominant and keep hot and mostly dry weather over the region through the weekend.
923 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 High pressure over the Southwest will continue the hot weather for the deserts into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.
Today through Thursday West to northwest flow aloft will occur across the Cowboy State today, with the Four Corners high shifting a bit further south over central AZ/NM and upper lows over the Upper Midwest and central Canada.
1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 (The rest of today ) Have made some adjustments this morning to account for trends in the high-based shower and storm activity, which has trended slowly south and should fade some going into the afternoon.
GOES satellite imagery this morning continues to feature an abnormally strong trough for this time of year centered over the MN/WI region moving eastward over the Great Lakes. To the south of the system, a cold front is being dragged eastward and past the local forecast area with strong mid/upper high pressure building across the western third of the CONUS. Thanks to the passage of the cold front, highs get knocked down a few degrees while dewpoints end up slashed compared to yesterday making it much more bearable outside. As the aforementioned trough continues to push eastward, it's moisture-scouring influence is expected to wayne over the course of the day Thursday, with dewpoints beginning to rebound into the lower-to-mid 60's by Thursday evening.
229 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Northwest flow was in place aloft early today between an upper high over the AZ/NM region and an upper low over the Great Lakes. Modest north winds and the surface were the rule over eastern Kansas at 18Z with weak high pressure in western Nebraska Temperatures had again reached the 90s over most locations despite the cold front's passage last night.
At the surface, it appears the weak cold front was somewhere along a Cando to west of Bismarck line. Cooler and drier air is evident on upstream observations over northwest ND into southern Saskatchewan. Temps Sat will be a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler in the wake of the frontal passage. This will be accompanied by the next signal for storms, during Tue/Wed, as the mean trough sets up over the Northern Plains. As a cold front pushes through the FA late this afternoon into the evening, there should be a brief period of gusty northwest winds.
238 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms over northwest Ohio will quickly move east this evening as a cold front sweeps through the region. Vigorous/compact mid level cyclone over Upper Peninsula will continue eastward track through Ontario overnight. Attendant cold front trailing southward through northwest Indiana to near KSTL. Weak trough drops southeast from the Upper Midwest into area late Thursday, however moisture should be routed enough to preclude PoPs/mention.
1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Summary: A quieter and slightly cooler pattern is expected for the remainder of the week. Low pressure was centered over the Twin Ports early this morning with an area of showers pinwheeling around the low. This low will slowly move to the east as the day progresses bringing an end to the showers from west to east by this afternoon. Dry conditions take over for Thursday as high pressure moves through the region.
141 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2022 A secondary cold front has moved south through the northern zones this afternoon with some airmass instability seen on satellite this afternoon over the central Montana mountains (along and south of the front).
1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Today: Pronounced mid/upper low currently spinning through northern MN will continue to allow for breezy northwesterly surface winds through at least the first half of the day (especially north of I- 90) before the SPG begins to relax into the afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50s and a relatively light wind will allow for overnight lows to sink into the lower to mid 60s.
Temperatures tonight will be fairly seasonable with lows in the lower to mid 60s. There will be weak cold air advection behind the boundary, though the impact will be minimal with highs only a couple of degrees cooler at most - still topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. It will be a decently comfortable day however, with relatively light winds and dewpoints dropping down into the lower to mid 50s. High pressure begins to drift off to the southeast on Thursday night with a southerly low level flow returning to the area.
Slightly warmer today vs yesterday and another 1-2 degrees warmer Thursday.