Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A FAIRLY DEEP CURRENT OF EASTERLIES PREVAILED -- A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS.
WITH THE HRRR FOCUSING ACTIVITY FROM THE N RRV TOWARDS DEVILS LAKE WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WILL ADD SOME AREAS OF FOG TO THE NORTH AND EXTEND UNTIL 15Z. EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR MOST.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE/S SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EAST.
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH JUST W OF TX IS PROGD TO SHIFT NE TODAY AS A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WARRANT KEEPING A CHC ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH IT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND RATES TO DECREASE AS THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS AND DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
The highest indices will occur in west central and central Missouri along the Osage River low lands.
THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. A LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED MON AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH AND THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH TOMORROW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TREND TO INCREASE CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
This weak disturbance aloft, which some refer to as a shear axis or inverted trough, is forecast to be centered just south and southeast of our area for the next 24 hours. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to range from the lower 90s, north of our Interstate 20 corridor, to the upper 80s, along our Interstate 10 corridor. The upper-level inverted trough (which has been discussed the past few days) will continue its slow westward trek during the day. Soundings also show a tall skinny CAPE profile and freezing levels remaining at/above 14,000 feet.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING. NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW. AS THE H5 TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
618 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/ WHATS LEFT OF TS BILL IS NOW AN UPPER WAVE OVER SERN INDIANA WITH THE TROF AXIS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. MAINLY SCT SHRA WERE AHEAD OF THE TROF WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSRA AS WELL. SO TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
510 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
With a weak upper trough over the region, updated to include 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. This weak disturbance aloft, which some refer to as a shear axis or inverted trough, is forecast to be centered just south and southeast of our area for the next 24 hours. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to range from the lower 90s, north of our Interstate 20 corridor, to the upper 80s, along our Interstate 10 corridor. The upper-level inverted trough (which has been discussed the past few days) will continue its slow westward trek during the day. Soundings also show a tall skinny CAPE profile and freezing levels remaining at/above 14,000 feet.
SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE VEERED/SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN THANKS TO SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL 25H TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 25H RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO MAINTAIN WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE THE LOW LEVEL AIDE TO GET TODAY'S CONVECTION UNDERWAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOW ONLY SLIGHTLY WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND INFLOW OF SOUTHERLY TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Today through Sunday: The general synoptic pattern over the next 36 hours will entail the low pressure system in British Columbia scootching along the US/Canadian border. The trough to the north suppresses the wave to the south making it into northern WA. As the trough passes tonight winds will get funneled down the Okanogan Valley.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THIS MORNING. A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. THE RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH. THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO/. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
1217 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE WATER. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
908 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE. OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA IMPINGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS 12Z SLE SOUNDING HAS SHOWN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING AT H8 IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THU AND MODEL FORECAST H8 TEMPS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 23 DEG C OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY THU. ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG A PUSH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING STRONGER THROUGH FRI.
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE PERIOD. /TODAY/ RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE PERIOD.
BUT DROPPED MENTION ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SW WIND. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE RIDGE ALOFT FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THINNING CIRRUS IN THE SUBSIDENT AREAS FROM OK IN AR AND TX AND LA. SO WHAT THE HEAT INDEX IF AIR GOES WARMER. THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW WITH STILL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OUT WEST WITH A DIP SEEN EVEN NOW ON THE VAPOR OVER ID/MT.
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. THE RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH. THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO/. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE FRESHENING EAST WINDS TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE 700 MB LAYER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE EAST THERE MAY BE MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON.
Of interest for this morning is the trough sliding southeast across the Dakotas and Nebraska.
THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE MIXING OUT. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. FLATTENING THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE RIDGE.
THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM UT ACROSS N CA. THE CENTER OF THE 594-596 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT WNW TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME N CA AND NW NV BEFORE WEAKENING ON THU NIGHT. ALTHO THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY THU. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND. TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROF. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND SECTIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SAT AND SUN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SURGING NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST.
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 UNSETTLED/ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER IS UPON US. WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES. TOP OF THE RIDGE WAS FLATTENING A BIT. RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OK/EASTERN KS THROUGH THE IA/NE BORDER AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.
1128 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY. REWORKED TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN TO REFLECT COOLER WX UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
MAINLY BRINGING THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY. WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES SOUTHWARD. REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEING ON TRACK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DELTA WHERE THE LOWEST CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE. AS OF 4 AM CDT THE MID SOUTH IS RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ NORTH OF I-44 IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH/SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 70 82 71 / 70 60 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 67 80 68 / 60 70 80 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 68 80 70 / 60 70 80 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 66 77 66 / 60 60 80 80.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN PROPAGATE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY.
TODAY ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING TO EXPAND. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING AS INSOLATION INCREASES AND THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FAIRLY CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HAVING A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEN AND THEN CARRY THIS OVER TO FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z SAT WITH A STRONG AND BROAD TROUGH OVER SW CANADA THAT IS TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS ALSO A DIEING SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE U.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT. WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN WEAKENING A BIT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT.
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND UPPER TROUGHING SUPPORTS A CONTINUED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. OVERALL THEME IS STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAP/SREF/HRR TRENDING DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS. HENCE EXPECT MAINLY SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODEST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WHILE THE LOWER POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. DID LOWER HIGHS JUST A BIT AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
707 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. 31 GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE. OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR SURE. MAX TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THE LOWERING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP.
A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AREA WITH SHREDS AS FAR NORTH AS KMAF AT DAYBREAK. INVERSIONS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER CHANCES TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD. THE SUMMER- TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700 MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS.
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN SHIFT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
709 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud field around mid-morning. South winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind speeds and gusts expected at KABI. The upper level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge extension southeast into west central Texas. (Thursday through Wednesday) Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma.
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. REACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW U. FOR THURSDAY THE HIGH CENTER TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH NV.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MOVED INTO FALLON COUNTY AND WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE HIGHS HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS SUPPRESS THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH.
725 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO REINVIGORATE THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MAIN 700- 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS STILL HANGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND. WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
956 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS PICKING UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT THE MID SOUTH IS RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ NORTH OF I-44 IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH/SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTS SWD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TNT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO NRN LAKE MI.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE METROPLEX. AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE.
THE INVERTED TROF COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS NUDGED A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO OUR REGION. ADJACENT SW AR AND NE TX WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. BUT DROPPED MENTION ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SW WIND. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE RIDGE ALOFT FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THINNING CIRRUS IN THE SUBSIDENT AREAS FROM OK IN AR AND TX AND LA. SO WHAT THE HEAT INDEX IF AIR GOES WARMER. THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW WITH STILL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OUT WEST WITH A DIP SEEN EVEN NOW ON THE VAPOR OVER ID/MT.
937 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
TOPPING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE NOW. UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
811 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING IN. /ISSUED 423 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE TO MID LEVELS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.