Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler and drier air will filter into the region, with Friday morning temps ranging from the mid 50s north of I-30, to lower 60s in our southern zones. Dry and less humid conditions will continue into Friday night, with lows again ranging from the lower 50s north to lower 60s in our southern zones.
(Through tonight ) A few strong to severe storms continue this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma ahead of cold front, currently located just east of I-35. A warming trend quickly develops over the weekend as upper ridge axis builds over the southern Plains.
106 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure extending into the area will get pushed northeast as an occluded front develops into the region late today and tonight.
148 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure centered well to our north will supply us with beautiful weather through this evening.
216 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 The upper low that brought severe weather to the region yesterday has moved to the east and is moving into central Kansas, as noted on 19Z water vapor imagery. This leaves our region in an area of subsidence on the southwestern side of the low, as also noted by clear skies over the CWA.
258 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Today's weather is brought to you courtesy of high pressure. An upper-level ridge building in from the west is suppressing vertical ascent and limiting atmospheric moisture. More of the same continues tomorrow as the ridge continues to slide eastward. The flow remains amplified as a fairly robust trough axis continues eastward, keeping the ridge moving in the process. This trough is also likely to bring somewhat of a change to our weather.
It is being replaced by a broad upper level trough.
252 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Dry conditions over the are today as a weak front stalls over the area under high pressure aloft. By Friday, the stalled front will push north of the area ahead of an approaching cold front and upper low. Cooler and drier weather should eventually move in behind the front this weekend. Upper level ridging over the southeastern region should help to limit any rainfall development today, especially north of the front where drier air will reside at the surface. Warm front will lift north of the area by early Friday morning with a cut off low and surface cold front moving towards the forecast area. This line will be well out ahead of the actual cold front which won't move into the area until just before midnight.
However, recent CAM guidance suggests some surface based CAPE may develop along the MO/AR border as the warm front pushes into southern Missouri.
Pacific trough now inland looks stronger on satellite in eastern OR than it really is, with only a few weak radar echoes just west of Baker County at 9 AM MDT.
307 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Calm and mostly clear night across the Upper Peninsula provided by high pressure dominating the region. Elsewhere, many places should dip close to the freezing mark. A low pressure system is still on track to move through the Missouri/Tennessee Valleys today and tomorrow.
A warming trend quickly develops over the weekend as upper ridge axis builds over the southern Plains.
/Late this afternoon through tonight/ We have cleared about half of the watch on the cooler side behind all this afternoon's severe weather. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region, with Friday morning temps ranging from the mid 50s north of I-30, to lower 60s in our southern zones. Dry and less humid conditions will continue into Friday night, with lows again ranging from the lower 50s north to lower 60s in our southern zones.
308 PM PDT Thu May 5 2022 Cooler and breezy the next couple of days.
1042 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Dry conditions over the are today as a weak front stalls over the area under high pressure aloft. By Friday, the stalled front will push north of the area ahead of an approaching cold front and upper low. Cooler and drier weather should eventually move in behind the front this weekend. Several isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed in the CSRA along the weak northward moving warm front. Warm front will lift north of the area by early Friday morning with a cut off low and surface cold front moving towards the forecast area. This line will be well out ahead of the actual cold front which won't move into the area until just before midnight.
Some weak Fgen on the northwest side of the departing trough during the afternoon.
330 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 A upper level ridge axis extended from the western Dakotas into southern CA, with a potent upper level trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper low that produced the inclement weather yesterday was located over western KS. Temperatures were 10 to 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with readings in the 50s and 60s. High pressure at the surface and aloft give way to the approaching low pressure trough.
Ridging will begin to build in and temps begin climbing.
943 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 (Issued 942 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022) The best chances for light rain will remain over far se WI late tnt-Fri AM as the area will remain on the nrn fringes of low pressure that will track across the Ohio Valley.
639 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Dry northwest breezes early this evening in process of tapering as the lower atmosphere was undergoing decoupling. And with light winds, the lower atmosphere around KCDS will moisten and could locally approach saturation. Surface and H850 millibar trough will develop later tonight with increasing west-southwest flow developing just above the ground. /issued 216 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022/ The upper low that brought severe weather to the region yesterday has moved to the east and is moving into central Kansas, as noted on 19Z water vapor imagery. This leaves our region in an area of subsidence on the southwestern side of the low, as also noted by clear skies over the CWA.
531 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 The leading edge of the next longer-wave trough will sweep across NW Wyoming tonight into tomorrow, bringing another round of light rain/snow to the west.
835 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure centered well to our north will supply us with beautiful weather through this evening.
705 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 (This evening through Friday) Latest water vapor imagery has the mid-level trough centered along western Kansas, and the cold front was positioned along a line near Tishomingo to Madill. Overnight lows will dip into the low 40s across northwestern Oklahoma with lows near 50 degrees for areas south/east of Ponca City to Oklahoma City to Lawton. Breezy northwest winds diminish tonight with a corridor of variable winds progressing along with the ridge axis tomorrow. High temperatures for Friday will range from the low 70s over northeastern Oklahoma to the 80s across western Oklahoma to near 90 degrees for parts of our western north Texas counties.
1050 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure centered well to our north will supply us with beautiful weather through this evening.
Showers may again develop in the northwest this evening along the approaching cold front.
446 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 A upper level ridge axis extended from the western Dakotas into southern CA, with a potent upper level trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper low that produced the inclement weather yesterday was located over western KS. Temperatures were 10 to 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with readings in the 50s and 60s. High pressure at the surface and aloft give way to the approaching low pressure trough.
957 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 (This evening through Friday) Latest water vapor imagery has the mid-level trough centered along western Kansas, and the cold front was positioned along a line near Tishomingo to Madill. Overnight lows will dip into the low 40s across northwestern Oklahoma with lows near 50 degrees for areas south/east of Ponca City to Oklahoma City to Lawton. Breezy northwest winds diminish tonight with a corridor of variable winds progressing along with the ridge axis tomorrow. High temperatures for Friday will range from the low 70s over northeastern Oklahoma to the 80s across western Oklahoma to near 90 degrees for parts of our western north Texas counties.
652 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 (Through tonight ) A few strong to severe storms continue this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma ahead of cold front, currently located just east of I-35. A warming trend quickly develops over the weekend as upper ridge axis builds over the southern Plains.
817 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Dry conditions over the are today as a weak front stalls over the area under high pressure aloft. By Friday, the stalled front will push north of the area ahead of an approaching cold front and upper low. Cooler and drier weather should eventually move in behind the front this weekend. Several isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed in the CSRA along the weak northward moving warm front. Warm front will lift north of the area by early Friday morning with a cut off low and surface cold front moving towards the forecast area. This line will be well out ahead of the actual cold front which won't move into the area until just before midnight.
518 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure centered well to our north will supply us with beautiful weather through this evening.
The dry air will eventually cause the showers' demise by mid to late afternoon leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and afternoon highs across MN a couple degrees cooler than anticipated. For tonight, cloud cover will slowly decrease from north to south as a broad low pressure system over the Central Plains moves east. Winds will become calm/variable as the Upper Midwest gets stuck between an upper-level trough to the south and a ridge to the north. Lows will also be in the low to mid-40s. By Friday night, an 850 mb thermal ridge will begin to approach MN from the west slightly warming lows compared to Thursday night.
On the north side of the low, Iowa has been in easterly flow for most of the afternoon. The better surface moisture has been held south closer to the center of the low. Additional shower development is possible this evening as the trough moves through the area, there will still be some stronger mid-level vorticity in the area that may provide some forcing. Given that column is saturated and the low pressure is still in the area, keeping slight chance POPs for central and southern portions of the forecast area. Friday, thermal ridge builds into the region and will begin break apart the cloud cover. If the cloud cover remains dense and does not break apart ahead of the ridge, these temperatures may be a tad too warm.
In addition to the ridge being fairly weak in our area, it is being hammered daily by day time heating over the mainland. While not very amplified mid and upper level ridging has increased across our area. Stable conditions are in place and while an island cloud line was able to develop just gulf side of the Lower Keys, no showers were able to develop. Short Term Update - Lower level Atlantic ridging will continue across Florida through the overnight period. Expect no chance for precipitation with overnight lows resting in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. Modest ridging across Florida will maintain light southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
520 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region tonight, as a Pacific cold front moves through the area. It will be a bit cooler on Friday, but strong winds are also expected over North Central MT. A Pacific cold front will move from west to east across the region tonight. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday as well.
532 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Drier weather is expected through Friday night as the departing low pressure system slowly moves eastward. Plenty of low level moisture will be present across the region in the wake of this low.
(Today) The upper low is currently moving across far northeast OK, with the bulk of the precipitation shifting east of the forecast area.
Discussion: Shower and thunderstorm activity is already increasing ahead of a low pressure system. A low will move through the Ohio Valley today with a cold front moving through the region this evening. This system has strong upper level support with a negatively tilted trough moving through Middle and East Tennessee tomorrow afternoon. The best chance for rain on Saturday will be in the higher elevations of the mountains as deep layer northwesterly flow perpendicular to the mountains is forced to rise. Temps will be cooler Friday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. Saturday will be cool with mostly cloudy skies highs will be in the low to mid 60s in the Tennessee Valley.
Today-Saturday: Generally dry and mild conditions are expected through Saturday under the influence of Canadian high pressure with most of the rain associated with the low pressure system passing across the Mid-MS Valley expected to remain south of the area. As the low passes east during the day, mid/high clouds will thin from the west. With 925 mb temps warming a few degrees over yesterday, expect highs well into the 60s for most areas and some low 70s for warmer locales.
/issued 311 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022/ High pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today. Interior areas will see high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
211 AM MDT Fri May 6 2022 07z surface analysis had developing warm front from eastern MT into central CO. Low level warm air advection will promote highs in the 70s on the plains, 60s over the higher Black Hills. It will push a cold front through the CWA, moving into central SD during peak heating. Moisture return still a question, but most ensemble guidance suggests 1KJ/kg MLCAPE, modest MLCIN, and 50kt 0-6km bulk shear in a narrow band just ahead of the cold front. Period of gusty winds expected ahead (southwest) and behind (west/northwest) the cold front.
and Saturday High pressure centered over Hudson Bay brought dry conditions to the forecast area early this morning. High clouds associated with a large low pressure passing south of the region covered all but the far northern part of the forecast area. Hudson Bay high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through Saturday. The low RH's (18-28% in the sandy soil areas) will result in elevated fire weather conditions, mainly over northern WI.
Meanwhile, an assocd CDFNT extended to the south of the low center acrs central sections of the FA. Ridging aloft is still progged to expand Nwd, allowing a noticeable warming trend to commence on Sat.
Most of the activity will be in the high elevations in the central mountains and eastern highlands. A cold front moves through Saturday and expect continued showers with much windier conditions. Will see a significant cool down Saturday behind the cold front with highs only in the 40s and 50s.
311 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 High pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today. Interior areas will see high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
The upper trough will pass overhead today, and showers and storms will redevelop ahead of the cold front associated with the upper low. As the cold front moves through, instability falls off quickly late in the afternoon, so the severe threat should come to an end late in the afternoon/around sunset at the latest if frontal timing holds out. The upper trough will slow a bit as it moves east of the area Friday night into Saturday, and will bring chances for showers mainly for the eastern half Friday night and during the day Saturday.
Over the next few days, the upper level low located over the Ozarks is progged to become a stalled, cutoff low over the eastern seaboard effectively putting the brakes on what has been an active, progressive pattern. Over the weekend, upper ridging will establish itself across most of the central plains and allow for much drier and warmer weather much of Mid-America.
Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a compact mid/upper low over Central Great Plains as it begins to pivot and slowly eject eastward. Highs look like they'll get another bump to the mid 70s alongside the return of storm chances Saturday afternoon as the mid/upper pattern transitions to a low-amplitude ridge with southwesterly flow over the High Plains.
Weak lee troughing will resume tomorrow. This supports lee troughing at the surface along with WAA.
Expect a general increase in convective coverage overnight with height falls aloft in advance of the upper trough axis. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 58 69 54 80 / 90 30 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 56 66 54 75 / 90 70 70 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 75 56 66 53 76 / 100 70 70 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 55 63 51 72 / 90 90 80 40 10.
The cold front that pushed last night's storms through the area has left an abundance of dry air in its wake.
Uncertainty remains in how long the low level stratus holds out Friday morning. Otherwise weak ridging moves in aloft which should bring more quiet weather to the Northern Plains to end the work week. Saturday will be a warmer day with highs spanning into the 70s across the region with breezy southeasterly winds. The next chance for showers and storms comes Saturday evening as an upper trough moves into the Northern Plains.
This is associated with some mid level vorticity separated from the main upper low over northern Arkansas. The stacked surface and upper low will move from the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley today. Clouds will thin from north to south as the low pulls away this afternoon. Mid level ridging will push in tonight bringing a drier air mass. Saturday Sunny skies will bring somewhat warmer temperatures as mid level ridging continues. Light east winds will keep areas near Lake Michigan cooler. A mid level trough will approach from the west Saturday night and winds will become southeast.
High temps Saturday should reach the lower and possibly mid 70s in a few locations, finally above normal, the first time this month.
The dry air will eventually cause the showers' demise by mid to late afternoon leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and afternoon highs across MN a couple degrees cooler than anticipated. For tonight, cloud cover will slowly decrease from north to south as a broad low pressure system over the Central Plains moves east. Winds will become calm/variable as the Upper Midwest gets stuck between an upper-level trough to the south and a ridge to the north. Lows will also be in the low to mid-40s.
452 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 High pressure and dry air have resulted in a mostly clear and calm night across the region, with lows dipping into the 30s by the lakeshores and 20s in some locations inland. The primary concern has quickly shifted to fire weather as Upper Michigan sits under high pressure.
Instead, the mid-level short wave ridge seems to flatten during the next couple of days while the western edge of the Atlantic high remains in control of the lower levels. The influence of the decaying boundary seems to mainly be shifting the low level flow further to the south/southwest and keeping low level moisture in place for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. By Saturday, the Atlantic ridge axis migrates southeast into the Bahamas as the remnants of the aforementioned decaying front reach the area.
The Pacific cold front has brought scattered showers and generally weak thunderstorms to much of north central, central, and southwest Montana this evening. Otherwise, the forecast is on track to spread the increasing westerly winds across the area, especially over the plains, later tonight into Friday, so will leave the High Wind Warning as is for now. -Coulston Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region tonight, as a Pacific cold front moves through the area. It will be a bit cooler on Friday, but strong winds are also expected over North Central MT. A Pacific cold front will move from west to east across the region tonight. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday as well.
An upper level trough moves through the Ohio River Valley from the Mississippi Valley Friday. As the cold front makes its way out of the forecast area, some wrap around precipitation may linger across the extreme northern tier of the forecast area Friday night through Saturday. Temperatures are a bit cooler behind the front, running 5-10+ degrees below normal on Saturday. KAL/Atwell The cold front will be southeast of the CWA by late Saturday leaving north to northwest flow in its wake.
1118 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 A low pressure system will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through at least early Saturday morning. Forecast highs are cooler north of I-70 which may remain north of the warm front and warmer south of the I-70 closer to the open warm sector. Cooler, northerly flow develops behind the low bringing cooler temperatures in from the west. Upper level closed low will slowly pivot southeast away from the region Saturday into Saturday night. Showers will linger on the backside of the low (wrap around), but these should gradually push out by the evening hours. After highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, lows will cool into the mid and upper 40s.
Friday afternoon and evening will be somewhat of a cool, cloudy, and rainy setup as the upper low slowly moves across Middle Tennessee. There's some uncertainty as to how quickly this upper low and subsequent rainfall will move out of the forecast area, so think clouds and showers may be slow to clear out of the area on Saturday.
This afternoon, a cumulus field is present over a good portion of the northern Panhandles courtesy of residual mid-level moisture wrapping around an upper low located to our northeast. 500mb inversion should keep a lid on vertical growth, so am not expecting any spotty precipitation this afternoon as the upper low departs. NBM 50th percentile lows are a bit cooler than the deterministic output, so have nudged forecast toward these values in accordance with expected efficient cooling. Ferguson An upper level ridge will traverse the Panhandles on Saturday.
202 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A low pressure system will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through at least early Saturday morning. Forecast highs are cooler north of I-70 which may remain north of the warm front and warmer south of the I-70 closer to the open warm sector. Cooler, northerly flow develops behind the low bringing cooler temperatures in from the west. Upper level closed low will slowly pivot southeast away from the region Saturday into Saturday night. Showers will linger on the backside of the low (wrap around), but these should gradually push out by the evening hours. After highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, lows will cool into the mid and upper 40s.
This milder trend will continue ahead of a slow-moving warm front in Central Texas by Saturday morning, with dew points in the upper 60s returning in western zones as the warm front arrives.
As the low pivots eastward we get enhanced lift from the deformation band on the backside of the system, so expect a period of decent rainfall rates this afternoon and evening before precipitation tapers off overnight. If clouds clear out faster than forecast, we could see slightly cooler temperatures tonight. A few showers will linger into Saturday morning as our upper level low departs, giving way to the GLORIOUS ridge that shall usher in the beginning of much warmer pattern.
High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures that will last into Saturday before another low pressure system approaches Arizona.
Later this afternoon and through this evening, as the storm system tracks across southern MO and the cold front sweeps across AR, convection will continue across much of the CWA.
An upper low continues to drop through the northeast corner of Oklahoma early this morning. A couple more widespread rainy periods are expected, one in the morning as this convection passes through, and another further northwest as the upper low wobbles across southern and central Illinois. The rain diminishes from west to east in the evening as the low pulls away.
A cool upper level trough will keep the weather cool and showery through the weekend.