Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front arriving late tonight should lead to some gusty NE winds soon after daybreak Tuesday - just beyond this TAF window. Along with new declines in PWATs today thanks to drier NE flow aloft around the high, widespread highs at or above 100 remain on tap. After sunset, a weak cold front (currently in the Nebraska Sandhills) should be found entering the northern TX Panhandle and be on track to clear most of the CWA by daybreak Tuesday. As the monsoon plume that provided some showers and thunderstorms over the past week or so, shifts to the northwest with the expanding dome of high pressure, a drier airmass ESE of the center of the ridge will be highlighted by weak northeast flow aloft and a drier surface boundary layer.
429 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A strong cold front blasted southward across the CWA over the past several hours, just recently passing through CYS with temperatures falling into the middle and upper 50s along w/ wind gusts up to 45 MPH. Considerably cooler today in the post- frontal air mass with H7 temperatures only around +8 deg C along & east of the Laramie Range. Quite modest mid and high-level moisture should keep any precipitation chances very low for today, but cannot entirely rule out a couple of showers or weak thunderstorms over the higher terrain along the WY/CO border. A few showers or storms may occur late Tuesday afternoon or early evening with a few weak mid- level disturbances traversing the flow along the edge of the ridge later in the day.
An area of high pressure will allow for tranquil weather to start the week. Abundant sunshine can be expected on Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
1042 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 An upper low near the Yucatan Channel is south of generally lower heights which reach to the northeast into the spine of the Appalachians. Mean layer ridging persists over the western North Atlantic and the Plains. At the surface, a flattened high pressure system over the North Atlantic extends west to the Bahamas, with the degraded western axis lying across the Straits. A weakened high pressure cell centered over the central North Atlantic will support gentle to light southerly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys today and tonight.
SW flow continues today with the boundary stalling just north of the state and high pressure ridging across south FL. The ridge will start to build back to the north later tomorrow with a gradual transition back to SE flow for the rest of the week. Winds will start to shift back to the SE later Tuesday as the high pressure ridge across south FL starts to build back to the north.
515 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A strong cold front blasted southward across the CWA over the past several hours, just recently passing through CYS with temperatures falling into the middle and upper 50s along w/ wind gusts up to 45 MPH. Considerably cooler today in the post- frontal air mass with H7 temperatures only around +8 deg C along & east of the Laramie Range. Quite modest mid and high-level moisture should keep any precipitation chances very low for today, but cannot entirely rule out a couple of showers or weak thunderstorms over the higher terrain along the WY/CO border. A few showers or storms may occur late Tuesday afternoon or early evening with a few weak mid- level disturbances traversing the flow along the edge of the ridge later in the day.
642 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Key Messages: - Hot today with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s (cooler in northern Missouri).
We will see a bit of a downturn in convection across much of the northern 2/3 of the CWA as drier air infiltrates the area on northerly flow behind a departing trough. Can't really call it a cold front but temperatures look to cool a few degrees up North behind the wave and also in the South due to the added elements from the deeper moisture. These merge into a single cell of high pressure on Tuesday and settle back near the CO/UT border. Moisture will recirculate/pool back under the ridge aloft and we should see a slight uptick in convection back across the northern terrain of the CWA. Being stuck under the ridge will also pose a threat of slow storm motions and increased runoff issues.
613 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Cooler and drier air will filter in today under high pressure.
/Issued 1201 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/ /Overnight through Tuesday/ Mid level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Southern Plains through Tuesday keeping it hot and dry.
417 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Key Messages: - Hot today with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s (cooler in northern Missouri).
High pressure will be located over Central Montana today, bringing in warmer and drier conditions.
Today Through Tuesday Night H500 ridging persists across the western US through the period with troughing in place across the Northeast.
514 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Warm and dry conditions will prevail today, but tomorrow will feature the next chance of showers and storms with a passing cold front. This higher shear may be sufficient to maintain storms for the morning, despite low CAPE. Second, there is moderate confidence that a cold front will enter the northwestern parts of our region on Tuesday morning. Tuesday night will feature a return to seasonable lows with clearing under building high pressure and cold advection. Most of the mid-to-late week will be defined by a western US ridge, accompanied by a Great Lakes trough.
The long range pattern features a mid level ridge remaining parked over the central and southern Rockies with an active pattern mostly confined to southern Canada.
- A cold front swings through today, possibly bringing the only real chance of precipitation this week.
The upper level ridge continues to expand to the west, which will keep the skies mostly clear with only some scattered cloud cover. During the evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will continue approaching northern Oklahoma.
The eastern flank of upper ridging over the Four Corners will extend into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a northern stream trough swings through the Midwest. Highs today will range in the middle 90s, with the highest heat indices being around 100-105 degrees. Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower 70s for most areas.
351 AM PDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure to the east will strengthen and expand the latter half of the week as onshore flow weakens for southern California.
Four corners upper high extending northwest over California will bring hot weather this afternoon and Tuesday. Slightly cooler, but still hot conditions farther south over the Southern Sacramento Valley and Northern San Joaquin Valley where a slight moderating flow from the Delta will keep high temperatures in the 100 to 105 degree range with moderate heat risk. Upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest Tuesday will bring increasing southwest flow providing a slight cool down back into the 95 to 105 range for Valley locations.
621 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure brings dry weather Monday.
Surface analysis shows the Atlc ridge axis across south FL with a stationary front across south GA/AL. Vero Beach looks to have the highest chance to equal or exceed its record of 96 from 2020. Atlantic ridge axis draped across south Florida will maintain S/SW wind flow of 10-15 knots.
Those temperatures will promote a large area of enhanced heat risk, and the inherited heat advisory has subsequently been expanded to include most inland valleys not impacted by cooler marine air. After Monday, upper heights are forecast to fall slightly over the NERN PAC, and an upper ridge that promoted anomalous heat will shift east away from the region.
Forecast Summary: Showers and thunderstorms ending this morning, then trending drier and progressively warmer this week. Highs will be a bit cooler (i.
An upper level ridge over the area is bringing the dry and stable conditions to the area, along with hot temperatures. The east will move to the east Tuesday, and the east side will warm a bit as the thermal trough moves over that area.
The strong, broad ridge centered to the east of northern Arizona will lead to another hot day today. Increasing cloud cover across a portion of the state will help to alleviate some of the heat, but temperatures will still be in the triple- digits for the lower elevations of Yavapai County and in the Grand Canyon.
By midweek, a strong ridge of high pressure will build into the region and lead to an extended warmer than normal period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
549 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Fairly widespread convection has developed across the region very early this morning as an upper level trough pushes through the western Dakotas. Otherwise, CAMs are indicating showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking southward across the area through mid to late morning as the upper level trough moves eastward and midlevel frontogenesis drops to the south. With cold air advection, temperatures will be much more tolerable today with highs in the lower to mid 80s. The upper level trough will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley region by tonight, putting our area in a northwesterly upper level flow. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s it will be very comfortable with highs in the 80s.
727 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Aviation --Showers/storms possible today-- Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front stretching from northwest WI southwest to eastern NE. This area has a little more going for it in that the cold front will be moving across Lake Michigan around this time. Another weak short wave will help to carve out the upper trough over the western Great Lakes Tuesday and the instability associated with the cooler temperatures aloft may help to generate a few showers, mostly over the northeast cwa.
High pressure over the four corners region will bring monsoonal moisture to the CWA beginning today with moisture continuing to work its way north thru the week. Overnight lows look to be in the low 50s to low 60s. However a wet storm or two may be possible with better chances over the high terrain. Daytime highs will be in the low 90s to low 100s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
726 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure will keep it fair today and much of tonight. A weak trough or two may pass through in mid-week before high pressure moves down from the Upper Great Lakes later in the week. A cold front will approach steadily from the NW tonight and pass through on Tuesday during the day. However, a patch of rain/showers associated with a weak trough is progged to precede the best lift during the morning and early aftn. Tuesday will be mild/cooler u70s in the NW thanks to the morning/early aftn clouds and showers, but get into the m-u80s in the SE where they should see sun in the morning. Temps should drop back into the u50s N, but hold in the m-u60s in the Lower Susq.
A strong ridge of high pressure will make for near record high temperatures in some locations this afternoon. With temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above average, an excessive heat warning will be in effect from Tucson into the lower deserts today. The easterly steering flow would tend to support organized outflows off the higher terrain and into the lower deserts later today and this evening. The main threat looks to be winds and dust with moisture just a tad on the low side to support organized propagation off higher terrain or significant valley storm coverage. An easterly impulse rotating around the high from northern Texas could focus storms later in the week.
611 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Subtropical Ridge remains in control with the heat the main concern.
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Cooler and drier air will filter in today under high pressure.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Tuesday/ Mid level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Southern Plains through Tuesday keeping it hot and dry.
The upper level ridge of high pressure is pushing east towards the area this morning. A warmer air mass will advect into the area today allowing highs into warm into the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. An upper level trough is moving southeast across the northern Plains this morning and will move east into the Great Lakes region by today into tonight. The trough will send a front south into the area this evening. Deep layer shear will not be overly strong, with the trough remaining to the north.
/TW/ The eastern flank of upper ridging over the Four Corners will extend into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a northern stream trough swings through the Midwest. Highs today will range in the middle 90s, with the highest heat indices being around 100-105 degrees. Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower 70s for most areas.
324 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and across the southern plains with a trough in the northern plains. This trough will move into the upper Great Lakes this afternoon and pass through the area tonight. Broad troffing across the Great Lakes region will start the period on Tuesday as a series of embedded waves rotate around this trof.
However, this relief will only last one day, as the ridge rebuilds tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the mid 80s across most of the region, including lower elevations west of the Divide, where last night's cold front never reached. Highs Tuesday will be several degrees warmer than today, as most areas will get back into the low 90s.
Warmer temperatures on Tuesday with the ridge developing overhead, and warmer overnight low temperatures Tuesday night as the airmass moderates.
223 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Warmer temperatures and slightly higher humidity are in place as expected this afternoon. We anticipate dry conditions into the evening as weak high pressure slides south and east, allowing a weak front to push south toward our area. We will maintain just a slight chance of convection over the Evansville Tri-State for later tonight as the High Resolution guidance suggests some activity could sustain and make it before weakening or dissipation.
One word to describe today is suppressed, and this cirrus band may depict the subsidence on the eastern flank of the upper low near the Yucatan Channel. Any tower which breaks through the low level inhibition, quickly entrains dry air. Nevertheless, these awkward southwest and south July breezes along the ridge axis should be ending soon. East to southeast breezes will freshen as the ridge builds across Florida.
(18Z TAFS) Upper ridge dominating the wx pattern. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Ridge ridge ridge.
Clear skies and warmer today as an upper ridge begins to build over the Intermountain West.
134 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A stalled frontal boundary just north of the state will settle into north FL leaving a remnant trough as high pressure ridging across south FL starts to lift back to the north later on Tuesday. The southwest flow will shift to the southeast, with afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore each afternoon through the rest of the week as ridging remains across the area.
Subtle and isolated chances for storms late afternoon and evening possible but confidence low associated with the backside of the low to the north and northeast. With higher heights centered to the southeast and northwest flow aloft for the high plains, continued dry conditions remain with a warming trend back in place.
1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Key Messages: - Hot today with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s (cooler in northern Missouri).
138 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure will be located over Central Montana today, bringing in warmer and drier conditions.
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A cold front will bring scattered rain and storms to the area late this afternoon into tonight. Focus is mainly on the potential for redevelopment of scattered showers and storms with the cold front this afternoon into tonight, with a few strong to severe storms possible.
Subtle and isolated chances for storms late afternoon and evening possible but confidence low associated with the backside of the low to the north and northeast.
A cold frontal passage is likely on Tuesday. Short range models are in disagreement with timing of cold front, which will inherently have consequences when it pertains to strength of convection. With warm and moist advection, it appears the most likely result of the cold frontal passage will be early to mid- morning thunderstorms that contain elevated convection, and an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.
136 PM PDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure aloft over the American Southwest will dominate our weather pattern through the week. As the high pressure system strengthens by the end of the week, we will see warmer weather for all areas.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon was characterized by cyclonic flow over the Dakotas, with a downstream Hudson Bay low and an upstream closed low off the coast of British Columbia. Tuesday will be quite a pleasant summer day, with light winds and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, as an upper ridge begins building over the northern Rockies.
Light and variable winds and still plenty of surface moisture may allow for fog development overnight ahead of the broad Midwest trough for Tuesday. As the trough remains to our north, the front will stall a bit, and keep chances for showers in during the overnight hours as well.
304 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Cool and dry today under high pressure.
1153 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Fairly widespread convection has developed across the region very early this morning as an upper level trough pushes through the western Dakotas. Otherwise, CAMs are indicating showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking southward across the area through mid to late morning as the upper level trough moves eastward and midlevel frontogenesis drops to the south. With cold air advection, temperatures will be much more tolerable today with highs in the lower to mid 80s. The upper level trough will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley region by tonight, putting our area in a northwesterly upper level flow. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s it will be very comfortable with highs in the 80s.
An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region today. A cold front will advance into southern Kansas by this evening.
306 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Increasing clouds tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
Another upper trough and cold front will swing swd from Canada for Tue nt. Daytime heating ahead of the approaching trough will likely result in sct showers and isold storms for Tue afternoon and evening over srn WI.
This cloud cover has kept a lid on the warmer temps, holding them in the 80s.
1255 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof shifting from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with ridge rebuilding across the Northern Rockies. Upper ridge will gradually build eastward into the Northern Plains by mid week with temps on the rise.
A cold front will enter north Arkansas in the morning and bring some mid level clouds with it. Slightly cooler and drier air is expected behind the front. Today Through Tuesday Night H500 ridging persists across the western US through the period with troughing in place across the Northeast.
Also will see temps a touch warmer tomorrow as well with some low to mid 80s in the valley and west and a bit less of a northwesterly breeze.
The southern edge of a weaker upper trough over the upper Midwest will pass across southeastern Kansas this evening and present a window for isolated showers and thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma border regions for the evening and overnight.
Cold front moving through the TX Panhandle will move south to the area later this evening and tonight. Cooler air will funnel in and we can expect highs to be in the mid 90s for the west and near 100 around the east. There are a couple model solutions suggesting that with the high still in place over NM, and the front may retreat quick enough by mid afternoon that we still could see temperatures closer to 100 in the west.
922 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure will be located over Central Montana today, bringing in warmer and drier conditions.
413 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return to the region late tonight and Tuesday with the encroachment of a cold front. No major alterations were needed for the eve update as warm, moist advection is underway in advance of a Midwest cold front. A cold frontal passage is likely on Tuesday. Short range models are in disagreement with timing of cold front, which will inherently have consequences when it pertains to strength of convection. With warm and moist advection, it appears the most likely result of the cold frontal passage will be early to mid- morning thunderstorms that contain elevated convection, and an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.
At the same time high pressure building across the western CONUS has shifted east, tightening the pressure gradient over Iowa and resulting in breezy northwest winds gusting over 20 mph at times this afternoon. Iowa will remain sandwiched between upper level ridging to the west and troughing to the northeast, making for another breezy Tuesday, especially towards northern portions of the state. The high will continue to build through the week as Iowa remains on the eastern periphery with the high pressure influence helping to keep the area generally dry with a gradual warming trend.
This is the remnant front/trough that passed through a couple of days ago, but since has become increasingly washed out with only a subtle wind shift now present in its vicinity.
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 (18Z TAFS) Upper ridge dominating the wx pattern. (Today through Tuesday afternoon) High pressure aloft will remain large and in charge to begin this week. Increasing hghts aloft and a stout elevated mixed layer should inhibit convection across northern portions of the region, but will maintain isold PoPs over the higher terrain where upslope flow is present. Highs will be a degree or two cooler than today, but still expected to reach into the 100s for a large portion of the region.
Northwest flow aloft will keep northwest flow in place in the low level which will support near to below normal temperatures tonight into Tuesday. This will lead into a warmer day, but still with dew points mostly in the 50s. The 850 mb temperatures is about 2 degrees higher which should result in surface temperatures about 4 to 6 degrees warmer, which will mean mostly mid and upper 80s.
238 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Key Messages: - Scattered showers/storms Tuesday & late in the week - Slowly warming temperatures After Tuesday, the upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Desert Southwest with the northward extent of the ridge axis slowly shifting east across the Upper Midwest.
(Tonight) Scattered/broken mid/high cu clouds remain in place over much of the area this Mon afternoon, as high pressure gradually settles into the area from the north.
A ridge aloft currently centered over the Rockies will expand and amplify into the Western High Plains through mid-week. As the ridge expands, temperatures will also be on the increase, and dry conditions are expected to prevail through mid-week given a lack of any meaningful low to mid level moisture.
An upper level trough remains stretched out over the area through the near term.
- Warming up into the latter part of the week with another ridge building in from the west. This is helping to push a modified cold front through the area this afternoon. Wind would be the main hazard with some small hail as a secondary hazard but with freezing levels over 16kft the hail threat would be low as storms likely will have trouble becoming very organized.
A cold frontal passage is likely on Tuesday. Short range models are in disagreement with timing of cold front, and this will inherently have consequences when it pertains to strength of convection. With warm and moist advection, it appears the most likely result of the cold frontal passage will be early to mid- morning thunderstorms that contain elevated convection, and an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.