Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current thinking of 3 to 6 inches at the highest elevations of the northern mountains and 1 to 3 inches for the Flat Tops and over Vail Pass remains in the forecast. As this occurs, our winds will become southwesterly ushering in some warmer air with temperatures getting around to more seasonal norms.
(Today and tonight) Surface cold front over western Kansas will move southeast into the area today as a mid-level trough moves from the northern and central Rockies to northern and central Plains.
Highs will be in the low to mid 60s today with lows tonight ranging from the mid 20s (northwest) to the mid 30s (southeast). Friday will be cooler following the passage of a cold front Thursday night, with highs in the 50s.
415 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure continues building directly into Southeast Michigan this morning as we sit beneath the left entrance region of an upper jet streak over the eastern Great Lakes. As the surface anticyclone advances in south of M-59, conditions become more favorable for patchy fog and likely frost over the next few hours due to enhanced near-surface moisture from the recent rainfall. Additional clouds begin to fill in tonight as a midlevel trough swings into the Great Lakes from the northern Plains. The surface cold front pushes through Friday morning, delivering little more than mostly cloudy skies. The front ushers in a cooler air mass to the tune of about -7C at 850mb, which paired with lingering cloud cover through the day will keep temps well in the 40s on Friday.
640 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Showers end this morning as high pressure builds in, with gradually clearing skies.
517 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The entire seven day forecast is completely dry with this essentially zonal progressive pattern with relatively low moisture available, save for the chance of flurries that have been thrown in for our north/east today with the pass of an upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Synoptic lift abruptly ends this afternoon as the trough progresses east and any flurries should be out of here by sunset.
High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes region today, and we will see continued dry and seasonable conditions. Models show a weak cold front pushing across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late tonight into early Friday, then high pressure sliding across the region Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The front will pass through dry, then cooler air will follow, with high temperatures Friday dropping to several degrees below normal.
525 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine today while high pressure builds across the region.
143 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof axis extending through the Northern Plains, with flat upper ridge extending westward through the Northern Rockies and next trof entering the Pac NW.
132 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Cold front moving through shifting the rain threat east of the area and allowing drier conditions into the region.
946 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Sent a minor update to better time the clearing and erosion of the low clouds for areas near the tidal lakes and coast the remainder of this morning and early this afternoon. Otherwise, forecast is shaping up well with drier air bringing lower humidity through the day leading to a cooler night tonight.
Any activity that does work into the area on the southern extent of this trough will sweep east/northeast of the region by mid morning with partly cloudy skies developing with time into the afternoon.
Gusty southerly winds will continue this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and move across the area this evening providing a shift to northerly winds across all sites this evening, a brief period of higher gusts will be possible immediately following the front. Otherwise a sunny and seasonably warm day is on tap across much of the region in advance of a cold front set to move through the area later this afternoon and evening.
A cold front will move across the area this evening. A ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southwestward into the lower Mississippi River Valley will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. Latest surface map shows an axis of high pressure extending just north of I-70 into central Indiana. Some high clouds have been streaming northeast into the area, and surface observations are starting to show some lower visibilities in light fog near the ridge axis. Otherwise, a fairly quiet day on tap as the high drifts east, with increasing southeast winds allowing temperatures to reach the mid 50s. Behind this system, high pressure quickly builds in again on Friday, with temperatures expected to only reach the 40s. Warm advection will be taking place Friday night as the high moves off to the east.
The exception may be in northwest portions of the area where mid/high level cloudiness could increase late tonight with the passage of a weak trough. Otherwise, expect any clouds to clear out by late Friday morning as high pressure rebuilds over the ArkLaMiss. /EC/ Tomorrow night through Thursday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with quasi-zonal flow across the Southern States on the poleward side of sub-tropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico.
There are some discrepancies in the models with the handling of a weak cold front early tomorrow morning, with global models stalling it near or just north of our border with the FWD/SJT CWAs while higher resolution models showing progression into portions of the northern CWA before stalling. Clouds will be slower to clear tomorrow, compared to today, leading to slightly cooler high temperatures.
1048 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Drier air will move into the region today as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week.
Looking ahead to Friday, southerly winds develop as high pressure moves east.
This high will shift off to the east tomorrow. Tomorrow, the cool high pressure center will still influence our eastern zones.
341 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Dry and cooler conditions are expected into the weekend.
With current temperatures near freezing and above across most of the area, precipitation may start out as rainfall. As the cold front sweeps through the area, the dropping temperatures may lead to wet/slushy roads becoming ice covered and slippery impacting the afternoon and early evening commute.
(This evening through Friday) The cold front, currently approaching I-44, will continue to move southeastward this afternoon into tonight. A few convective showers are possible along and ahead of the cold front across southeast/south central Oklahoma.
1118 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The main focus today will be a mid-level trough and associated cold front that will swing through this afternoon and evening. Upper level support from the trough and transient low to mid-level frontogenesis behind the surface front likely will focus a quick 1 to 3 hour window of precip this afternoon into early evening. Tonight, as surface ridging builds in and skies quickly clear following the trough passage, temps will fall into the teens to low 20s, so wet roads could refreeze. Surface ridging will pass east of the MS Valley on Friday with plenty of sunshine but below average highs in the 30s to low 40s.
1048 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2020 Light snow continues to dissipate early this morning, and expect a dry and cool day across the forecast area as a transitory ridge pulls across the area.
In the upper levels, fast westerly flow is over Texas, with a strong upper level trough moving east through the northern and central plains. The plains trough will send a cold front into the area tonight that will make significant progress south through our area Friday, potentially to the Interstate 10 corridor. Lows tonight will be cooler behind the front, in the low to mid 40s along/north of I-20, and in the low to mid 50s from the Concho Valley southward. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s north of I-20, to the lower 60s in the Concho Valley, to the mid 70s along/south of a San Saba to Sonora line.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1023 mb ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes Region.
243 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Cold front moving through shifting the rain threat east of the area and allowing drier conditions into the region.
Across the plains on Friday, expect warmer temperatures under warm air advection patter as 700mb temperatures climb back to around 0C at Denver.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 113 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Dry and cooler conditions are expected into the weekend.
100 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The low level stratus deck on the backside of the front that moved through yesterday continues to slowly erode from west to east. Overnight lows in the low to mid 40s are expected. Despite the cold front passage, afternoon high temperatures remain near climatological norms in the upper 60s to near 70.
229 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure starts building in tonight with clearing skies across Central NY.
A developing LLJ overnight will spread from west to east, with the east experiencing the lowest winds for the greatest length of time. Given the cooler temperatures forecast in the east, would not be surprised to see some low level drifting along the Coteau, mainly over Deuel county where there is a resident snowpack.
322 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring cooler and drier weather to the region for late in the week.
1013 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2020 Current surface map places cold front across northern Nebraska.
Temperatures are steadily rising everywhere with a push toward the low and mid 60s this afternoon.
As a result, temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees warmer outside of the cloud cover. A weak cold front is set to move in tomorrow morning, working to keep high temperatures several degrees cooler than what we have experienced today.
High pressure will build from the northwest Friday, continuing the flow of drier air into the region.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today: This morning the synoptic pattern consists of a deepening trough axis over the northern Plains & lee side of the Rockies while mostly mean zonal flow exists across the southern half of the CONUS. For forecast elements, expect temperatures to be cooler than the past few days but slightly above normal, only a few degrees above in the Highway 82 corridor to nearly 5+ degrees over the southern half of the region. Tonight: As remnants of Eta move off the Atlantic seaboard & trough axis swing into the Great Lakes, another cold front will move off to our northwest into the Mid-South & Great Lakes.
Very strong quasi-zonal flow exists over the SW Conus early this afternoon as the region remains parked between a low amplitude, positively tilted East Pacific trough and an expansive subtropical ridging stationed over the western Gulf of Mexico. This flow pattern was tapping some thicker, subtropical high cirrus; and while thermal profiles were a few degrees warmer today, the reduced insolation resulting from the cloud cover seems to be keeping surface temperatures somewhat closer to those experienced yesterday (i. Heights aloft will slowly build over the weekend as more pronounced ridging amplifies through the Southwest.
334 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Dry and cooler conditions are expected into the weekend.
Overnight temperatures will range from the low 20s for northwestern counties to low 30s into south central Kansas. Otherwise, expect a cold front to push through during the morning hours turning winds out of the north. Afternoon high temperatures will still be warmer than the previous day due to downsloping winds pushing into the 50s for all of the CWA, warmest into the south central counties. Overnight lows into Friday morning will drop once again into the 20s but for the entire CWA behind the aforementioned cold front well below the freezing mark.
This will bring warmer air into the region Friday. Friday night, a cold front will enter the state.
Otherwise a sunny and seasonably warm day is on tap across much of the region in advance of a cold front set to move through the area later this afternoon and evening.
CHA has the highest chance of staying VFR for the rest of the period once the return happens later this afternoon with indication for TYS to to have low ceilings after about 09Z. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 68 43 69 55 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 65 40 67 51 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 66 40 67 51 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 64 36 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 10.
A frontal boundary and high pressure then building into the region behind it for Friday into the weekend and a lingering trough south of the area.
210 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Much warmer temperatures today as southerly flow helps drive our highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A weak trof to the west will help promote isentropic ascent, cultivating overcast skies north of the boundary. Scattered rain showers are expected on Friday across our eastern areas, mainly along the Lower Trans Pecos and northeastern Permian Basin.
300 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Positive tilted upper level trough approaching from the northwest was beginning to develop a few showers in our sw cwa while a band of snow was located in southern/eastern MN. Cold front extended from northern WI to central IA and then to nw OK. Tonight: Scattered showers into this evening as a cold front moves across the cwa. Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Friday: Canadian high pressure brings wall-to-wall sunshine but a chilly day with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
136 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 A cold front will remain off the Maine coast through the afternoon, while high pressure builds across the region.
Some cu may spread E into the Wrn sections of E TX into SW AR this afternoon, with cu cigs expected to develop by mid to late evening near and ahead of a weak cold front that will shift SE into these areas late this evening through the overnight hours.
1152 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The entire seven day forecast is completely dry with this essentially zonal progressive pattern with relatively low moisture available, save for the chance of flurries that have been thrown in for our north/east today with the pass of an upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Synoptic lift abruptly ends this afternoon as the trough progresses east and any flurries should be out of here by sunset.
1240 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Drier air will move into the region today as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week.
1137 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Not quite as cold this morning compared to yesterday, with temperatures ranging from near freezing to as warm as 40 degrees within the more urban areas of the Kansas City metro. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest this afternoon, entering into far NW Missouri by around 2 pm, through the KC metro by around 6 pm, and completely through the remainder of the region by around 9 pm tonight.
A cold front will shift the rain threat east of the area and allowing drier conditions into the region.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 46 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 45 65 40 67 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 45 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 46 64 36 65 / 10 0 0 0 0.
A cold front will bring a return to colder temperatures along with maybe a few light rain or snow showers.
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME 359 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure will build over and north of the area tonight with dry and cooler conditions.
326 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring cooler and drier weather to the region for late in the week.
/This Afternoon/ The morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from the OH Valley SW into ECntrl TX.
Temperatures are steadily rising everywhere with a push toward the low and mid 60s this afternoon. High pressure is quickly building into Middle Tennessee following yesterday's fropa.
1145 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 (Today and tonight) Surface cold front over western Kansas will move southeast into the area today as a mid-level trough moves from the northern and central Rockies to northern and central Plains.
A cool and dry airmass will move in tonight with lows falling into the 20s across the northern half of the area and the lower 30s closer to the Arkansas border.
Nonetheless, could see some single digits in the typically colder spots of central Minnesota where winds have the best chance of decoupling tonight under the ridge axis.
433 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof axis extending through the Northern Plains, with flat upper ridge extending westward through the Northern Rockies and next trof entering the Pac NW.
Expect these elevated winds to continue until around sunset and therefore the High Wind Warning was extended until 4 PM MST.
612 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 (This evening through Friday) The cold front, currently approaching I-44, will continue to move southeastward this afternoon into tonight. A few convective showers are possible along and ahead of the cold front across southeast/south central Oklahoma.
Positive tilted upper level trough approaching from the northwest was beginning to develop a few showers in our sw cwa while a band of snow was located in southern/eastern MN. Cold front extended from northern WI to central IA and then to nw OK. Tonight: Scattered showers into this evening as a cold front moves across the cwa. Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Friday: Canadian high pressure brings wall-to-wall sunshine but a chilly day with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
This trough will bring with it a dose of moisture, with precipitation starting in northwest Montana and central Idaho early in the morning. Along with precipitation, a cold front associated with the low pressure system will swing through on Friday evening. Freezing rain will be a possibility as moisture decreases in the colder, snow-producing levels of the atmosphere on Friday night. If freezing rain does materialize, the Missoula-Bitterroot Valleys, Seeley-Swan Valley, and Flathead Valley will be favored.
305 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Winds remain out of the west across the FA but will soon veer to the north to northwest by the evening as a cold front pushes through the region followed by backing to the northeast by mid evening. As of 1 PM the cold front was approaching the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. As the airmass will be highly modified temperatures will only be slightly cooler tonight than this morning. Temperatures tomorrow, however, will be noticably cooler in part due to cloud cover. Winds will begin to veer back to the south by the early evening as surface ridging moves across the region.
Clouds will begin to develop, becoming more bkn to ovc as we go past sunrise tomorrow morning, especially in the wake of the north to south moving cold front. Going into the day tomorrow, bkn to ovc skies expected as good H700-500 moisture transport advects into the region downstream of a positive H500 trough with its axis near Baja California by tomorrow morning. The vort max further displaces from the apex of the trough axis is pretty tame which will limit vertical growth downstream.
Friday sees winds shift to the south, with weak ridging overhead. The afternoon and evening will be breezy, with a tightening surface pressure gradient and increasing flow at the lower and mid levels. All that to say, expect slightly warmer temps on Friday than previous days, but locations with snowpack remain a few degrees cooler.
819 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 A cold front continues to sweep across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and is currently located near a KROG to KMLC line.
Lows tonight may be a few to several degrees cooler than this morning due to the drier air and clear skies this evening. The warmer temperatures will be felt tomorrow with highs getting closer to normal, but still slight below.
CAA continues with NW winds in association with a cold front that has moved off to the southeast.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s far inland on one side of the warm front to the mid/ upper 60s on the other side closer to the coast. highs tomorrow should be in the low to mid 80s.
607 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 A weak cold front has moved through all three terminals, KCDS, KPVW and KLBB, this afternoon resulting in light/variable or light N/NE winds. /issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/ Winds remain out of the west across the FA but will soon veer to the north to northwest by the evening as a cold front pushes through the region followed by backing to the northeast by mid evening. As of 1 PM the cold front was approaching the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. As the airmass will be highly modified temperatures will only be slightly cooler tonight than this morning. Temperatures tomorrow, however, will be noticably cooler in part due to cloud cover. Winds will begin to veer back to the south by the early evening as surface ridging moves across the region.
421 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring cooler and drier weather to the region for late in the week.
Light precipitation will become likely into the higher elevation of the Sierra by Friday afternoon, primarily north of Tulare county. Today's afternoon temperatures across the central California interior are up to 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday, with mainly low to mid 60s across the valley and Kern county desert. No widespread freezing conditions are expected for Friday morning in the southern San Joaquin Valley.
602 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The main weather feature of note this afternoon is a cold front working through the forecast area from northwest to southeast. Limited atmospheric moisture will prevent any precipitation from making it to the surface as the cold front passes through. Would not be surprised to see overnight temperatures fall in the low to mid 20s across most of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
326 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 The main weather feature of note this afternoon is a cold front working through the forecast area from northwest to southeast. Limited atmospheric moisture will prevent any precipitation from making it to the surface as the cold front passes through. Would not be surprised to see overnight temperatures fall in the low to mid 20s across most of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
A cold front currently analyzed from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City will swing through central Illinois tonight. Once the cold front passes, winds will veer to the northwest and gust 20-25mph late tonight into Friday morning. High pressure will quickly shift east of the region, allowing a warm advection regime to develop by Friday night.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure centered over Southeast Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from Eastern Lake Superior back through Iowa, Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Short term models indicate the aforementioned cold front is expected to drop southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. This will bring a reinforcement of cooler air.
Expect VFR to hold into the overnight as low pressure develops in the northern Great Lakes which pulls a cold front into lower Michigan late tonight and Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR continues until a cold front approaches Friday morning. Any activity that does work into the area on the southern extent of this trough will sweep east/northeast of the region by mid morning with partly cloudy skies developing with time into the afternoon.
559 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure will build over and north of the area tonight with dry and cooler conditions.
656 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 High pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring cooler and drier weather to the region for late in the week.
703 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Cold front moving through shifting the rain threat east of the area and allowing drier conditions into the region.