Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
WEAK COLD FRONT AND BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ENE-WSW ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PIVOT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATER THIS EVENING. DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PINE RIDGE AND THE WRN SANDHILLS SOUTH THROUGH IMPERIAL AROUND 21Z. HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 700 MB.
719 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL AGAIN JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP PAST 8C.
1011 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. SCT SHRAS INVOF WK TROUGH INVOF WRN VA CONTG TO DISSIPATING AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROF DVLPNG IN LEE OF MTS DRNG THE AFTRN WITH EVEN A BIT OF QPF ALONG AND W OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST TO A POSITION ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST SUN THROUGH MON. MODELS HINT AT ANTHR LEE TROF DVLPMNT MON AFTRN. DRY/WARMER ALONG WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES DVLPNG. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT.
1158 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15KFT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S/AROUND 70 ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BUT JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH STATIC STABILITY IN PLACE.
859 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1038 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
941 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A WEAK TROUGH HAS SPARKED SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH MAY SPARK A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH OTHERWISE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER TIME FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FOR SATURDAY, GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUNNIER, WARMER, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE THE SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER OR TWO OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LINGERING TROUGH. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
1146 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON, ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BLANKET THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE 30S. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE FAIR WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL INTO SATURDAY. LOWS OF 45-50F TONIGHT WITH COOLEST READINGS FROM I-57 EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND LESS CLOUD COVER. LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME SSW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL IL.
738 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE HAVE LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND JUST A FEW CU LEFT IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE PINNED UP RIGHT UP UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 8. /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/ A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TX. WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WEEKEND AND MAKE FOR IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COMES TO DOMINATE THE WINDS.
855 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL AGAIN JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP PAST 8C.
1154 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 839 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/ FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
1156 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PIVOT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATER THIS EVENING. DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PINE RIDGE AND THE WRN SANDHILLS SOUTH THROUGH IMPERIAL AROUND 21Z. HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 700 MB.
845 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR, CLEARS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
AIDED BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC AND ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WHEATLAND AND CHEYENNE AND THIS LOOKS DECENT BASED ON THE FORECAST 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE DAY WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT NOT TOO FAR TO OUR WEST. LATE DAY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.
305 AM MST FRI JUN 26 2015 THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARM OVERNIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER FAR NRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 00Z KFGZ SOUNDING DATA SAMPLING H5 596DM HEIGHTS AND CALM WINDS WITH KTWC DEPICTING 593DM UNDER 5KT OF EASTERLY FLOW.
131 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
121 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MAINLY THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP WIDELY SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE AND THERE BUT WILL KEEP WITH TRENDS FOR NOW. FOCUS IS ON THE SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LONG ADVERTISED DEEPENING OF THE GREAT LAKES TROF IS UNDERWAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
440 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RICH MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM MODEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED.
622 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.
That being said, the next round could be as early as this afternoon with southwest to northeast moving storms ahead of the main event - passage of a cold front - this evening and overnight. After Highs in the 80s today, temperatures will drop into the 60s tonight, then only rebound into the lower 70s on Saturday.
SEASONAL RIDGE AXIS. THE FRACTURED RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COALESCED AND PUSHED THROUGH A CONVERGENT SURGE OF EAST- SOUTHEASTERLIES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
131 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 A RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN AND DRYER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WHICH WOULD POINT A BIT COOLER TEMPS.
A WEAK TROF AXIS EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS.
209 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MADE TO THE HIGHER POPS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE 88D VADS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AMPLIFIES. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, USHERING IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WHERE THE LATER ONSET OF CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.
305 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA JUST AFTER 18Z. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY MORNING AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
327 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR TODAY.
234 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND LAST NIGHT CREATED SOME COOLER AREAS. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U. WHAT EVER ACTIVITY DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORT LIVED UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES FOR A QUIET START TO WEEKEND. LONGER TERM CONCERNS STILL FOCUS ON PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BATTLE BORN STATE RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
Fog linger for a while Sunday morning, before southerly flow and decreasing clouds allows temps to climb into the low to mid 70s.
Cloud cover overnight will keep temperatures on the warmer side.
Temps will not change too much from current observations, so most areas will hold steady in the low/mid 50's. A great night to relax and watch a movie! Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 75 59 78 / 70 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 72 56 77 / 90 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 53 72 56 77 / 90 10 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 69 52 75 / 100 20 0 10.
-Mottice An upper level weather disturbance is forecast to move across the region tonight, with the ensemble showing the upper low closing off and moving across southern Montana and Wyoming.
1046 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Southerly flow on the back side of retreating high pressure will offer above normal temperatures through Sunday.
Area of high pressure will continue to ridge into the Central and Southern Plains overnight leading to light and variable winds and clears skies persisting for much of the area. The primary forecast challenge overnight will be fog potential mainly on the east side of the ridge axis which is roughly east of Interstate 35. The area of high pressure will move east on Sunday while low pressure deepens to the west across South Dakota and Nebraska in response to a closed upper low crossing the Rockies.
A dry cold front will push through Sunday, with high temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees in northeast Arizona.
625 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 A weak cold front will push through Illinois bringing some sprinkles and mostly cloudy skies west of I-57 this evening.
Wind gusts have been observed around 55 mph over some of the higher terrain east of the Cascades. A warm front will push onshore later tonight and snow levels will rise up to roughly 8000 feet.
803 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Southerly flow on the back side of retreating high pressure will offer above normal temperatures through Sunday.
Temps should remain in the low- to mid-50s. Skies will begin to clear late tomorrow morning as relatively high pressure seeps back into the southeastern CONUS between the post- tropical cyclone and a strong low-pressure system in the northern plains. Weak ridging aloft will also help keep skies mostly clear going into tomorrow night with high temperatures expected to climb into the mid-70s despite northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air into the region. Tomorrow night, moist Gulf air will quickly make its return with the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a longwave trough situated from the Midwest into the southern plains.
/issued 227 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/ An upper trough is over the central part of the country with another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. A cold front associated with the trough over the central part of the country has pushed through most of the CWA. This has resulted in cooler, drier conditions than yesterday with highs today expected to be in the 70s and 80s across most of the area. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest digs southeastward and moves over the central part of the country on Sunday. A cold front will push through the area Sunday night.
Winds will be light with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Some model differences on where this convergence/rainfall band initially sets up, but this will lift eastward through the area on Sunday afternoon and evening, with brief drying afterward as the center of the low tracks eastward. Out ahead of the low, an increasing gradient will result in strong southeasterly winds by afternoon. It will be another relatively mild day however with highs into the lower 60s.
718 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 High pressure moves east of the region tonight.
Expect hot temperatures across West Central Texas on Sunday as low level southwest flow and thermal ridge will be in play. (Sunday Night through Saturday) With an upper trough digging southeast across the northern and central Plains Sunday evening, associated cold front will push south across west central Texas Sunday night. Carrying PoPs for roughly the southeastern two-thirds of our area Sunday night, but the main chance and focus will be in our eastern and southern counties, where showers and thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of the cold front.
The southerly flow continues to pump in dew points in the upper 70s and temperatures are struggling to fall through the lower 80s.
Showers associated with an upper low will continue this evening in southwest Idaho, mainly in the Boise/West Central Mountains where additional light snow accumulations are expected. The shower coverage will decrease overnight as the low pressure system move east of the area.
The upper-air system will evolve into a closed low while tracking through SD and NE on Sunday and Sunday night. In the low levels, a lee cyclone will form over eastern WY tonight with subsequent deepening forecast as it develops into southeast SD by Sunday night. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance through eastern NE and western IA Sunday afternoon and evening.
Westerly breezes will diminish this evening as low pressure begins to shift off the Rockies. Winds will shift to the southeast ahead of the low and become gusty. However, a dry slot will push into south central SD, as far north as Pierre, and cut off the rain for a few hours before the low progresses east and precip fills in behind it. Expect a cool down behind the low. To start the period, a large low pressure system will be located somewhere over the Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota or maybe eastern Nebraska/western Iowa.
Temperatures in the 60s now will fall back into the 50s overnight, staying a touch warmer due to cloud cover and a light south wind.
Winds will start out southerly then veer and strengthen through the day on Sunday to more of a westerly and eventually northwesterly direction as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. /issued 246 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/ A weak trough passed by last night pushing through a cold front which brought us cooler temperatures and crystal blue skies today. A trough deepening out of Pac-NW today will swing into the northern Central Plains tomorrow. The GFS is a bit faster than other solutions but in the long run in regards to the Sunday evening cold front, it may only make a difference of a hour or two on passage time for our forecast area (during the evening hours of Sunday).
405 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019 An upper level weather disturbance is forecast to move across the region tonight, with the ensemble showing the upper low closing off and moving across southern Montana and Wyoming.
Advection of drier near surface air behind the departing trof was a bit weaker across eastern Kansas this afternoon and northerly flow will become light/variable late this evening. Otherwise, focus will turn to the upper trof digging east-southeast across the Rockies overnight before becoming a closed low over the northern Plains during Sunday.
At the surface, weak lee trof exists across the high plains with westerly boundary layer winds in place. A cold front and area of low pressure at the surface will move quickly east across the northern Rockies, arriving in western SD later tonight and Sunday morning. Amounts closer to 3 to 6 inches will be possible across the highest elevations. Strong winds can be expected across a good portion of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure intensifies to the east of the region.
Advection of drier near surface air behind the departing trof was a bit weaker across eastern Kansas this afternoon and northerly flow will become light/variable late this evening. Otherwise, focus will turn to the upper trof digging east-southeast across the Rockies overnight before becoming a closed low over the northern Plains during Sunday. The deep tropospheric closed low is progged to lift northeast across the Upper Midwest on Monday with central and eastern Kansas in the drier/cooler and deeply mixed northwest flow regime providing occasionally strong/gusty winds.
Fog is due to the higher dew points in the area. Our focus shifts to a strong cold front forecast to move across our region on Monday.
324 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move northeast of the area this morning, and dry high pressure will build in behind the low.
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 With the closed low heading into the north central Plains, an occluded/cold front will swing through our area this morning. We should get dry-slotted pretty quickly and our next shot for precip will come very late tonight as we get some light rain/sprinkle chances as we get wrap-around on the back side of the low.
A cold front will begin to move into WWR around 21Z Sunday and then to the I-44 around 03Z.
156 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Light rain will clip southern and eastern parts of the area today as low pressure (Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor) continues to move northeast along the Southeast U.
Our focus shifts to a strong cold front forecast to move across our region on Monday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances become possible Sunday evening as a cold front is forecast to push through the CWA.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the next weather system pushing temperatures into the lower to middle 70s for highs along with gusty southerly winds of 20 to 25 mph.
The upper-air system will evolve into a closed low while tracking through SD and NE on Sunday and Sunday night. In the low levels, a lee cyclone will form over eastern WY tonight with subsequent deepening forecast as it develops into southeast SD by Sunday night. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance through eastern NE and western IA Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday and Monday night: The deep-layer cyclone over southeast SD on Monday morning will progress northeast into the upper Great Lakes by Monday night.
A stronger cold front is expected to move through the area Monday afternoon and Monday evening. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build in for the middle parts of the week. Models suggest a deepening upper trough over the Plains tonight will lift out towards Hudson Bay by the end of the short term. An associated cold front is expected to pass through the local area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Models suggest the stronger lift may pass off to the east by sunset Monday, but prefer to hold onto PoPs through the late evening hours of Monday, until cold front passes off to the east.
Fog linger for a while Sunday morning, before southerly flow and decreasing clouds allows temps to climb into the low to mid 70s. Highs will be in the 60s behind the cold front Mon and Tue, warming slightly to around 70 for Wed.
More extensive dense fog exists across MO and eastern KS and we will continue to monitor this morning for any northward expansion but several models keep the lowest visibilities to our south and east. The associated cold front with this system will slide through the area overnight with some chances for precipitation wrapping around into our northern counties.
Westerly breezes will diminish this evening as low pressure begins to shift off the Rockies. Winds will shift to the southeast ahead of the low and become gusty. However, a dry slot will push into south central SD, as far north as Pierre, and cut off the rain for a few hours before the low progresses east and precip fills in behind it. Expect a cool down behind the low. To start the period, a large low pressure system will be located somewhere over the Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota or maybe eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. Very gusty winds over central South Dakota will increase from west to east as the low meanders eastward throughout the day Monday.
Dry high pressure behind the low will be over the area Sunday.
Otherwise, gusts will diminish around 21/00-01Z and veer to the NW with the approach of another cold front. /issued 227 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/ An upper trough is over the central part of the country with another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. A cold front associated with the trough over the central part of the country has pushed through most of the CWA. This has resulted in cooler, drier conditions than yesterday with highs today expected to be in the 70s and 80s across most of the area. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest digs southeastward and moves over the central part of the country on Sunday. A cold front will push through the area Sunday night.