Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
237 PM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Water vapor shows large trof over the western CONUS with center of upper level circulation over ID, and subtle baroclinic leaf over WY. At the surface, low center continues to deepen over eastern CO with inverted trof extending newd through western NEB and central SD. Mix of rain and snow onto the plains east of the Black Hills with less snow accumulation and less impact on travel for this storm, although across central SD there could be a bit of freezing rain late tonight and early Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Strong high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico interacting with lower pressure across the Plains will support moderate to strong southeast winds through the short term. Otherwise, a mid level ridge parked over the Gulf will keep subsident capping conditions in place, producing warm and dry weather under a mix of clouds and sun across deep south Texas. Due to a backing mid level pattern as the ridge reorients over the Gulf, increasingly southwest flow aloft may provide nocturnal destabilization over the Sierra Madre Oriental range.
A warm front is expected to gradually lift northward and is forecast to be located just north of the Red River by late this afternoon. In addition, if a storm is able to track along the warm front, enhanced low-level wind shear and will result in an attendant tornado threat.
That front is expected to push toward the west as a strong ridge build southward on the eastern side of the Appalachians, and a down- valley flow continuing overnight. Aloft, a ridge will be building over the region tonight, with its midlevel axis located across the Appalachians tomorrow.
Models continue to keep the better theta-e ridge north and west of the area, which means that rainfall will be nil. In addition, the upper trough will remain far enough west, the cap will be strong enough, and the winds will be elevated enough to preclude rainfall in this forecast. The trough begins to approach the area Monday night but again moisture is not that great. Winds will stay up again Monday night and thus going warmer than most guidance.
As western Montana and central Idaho lingers under a trough of low pressure, unstable and moist conditions are giving way to widespread showers across the region.
1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Satellite imagery this morning shows a ridge in place across the center of the Nation, with a large synoptic level trough to our west digging into the mountainous west with the help of a strong jet streak that is rounding the troughs base in northern Mexico. Expectation are that the jet streak will slow the progress of the main trough as we transit into the work week, which ensemble and operational models agree with, setting the stage for a persistent southwest flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley late Sunday night through at least the middle of the coming work week.
/issued 1035 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ Partly to mostly cloudy skies acrs the region with temperatures already in the lower to middle 70s, on track to reach highs around 80 expected. Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s over inland areas. A similar albeit slight warmer day is expected for Monday.
The lowest ceiling are getting closer to VFR but some terminals may stay in MVFR through the afternoon. /issued 331 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ Short term conditions continue to be influenced by high pressure to our east which is allowing some return flow out ahead of a weak front that is nearing the area from the north. The front does not look like it will make it into our area, staying north of us and then retreating as a warm front.
The airmass behind this low will not be all that cool, and in fact highs Monday will be warmer than today for a fair portion of western and central Kansas. The medium range models show a large trough extending from the northern Rockies into southern California at the beginning of this period. As the northern part of this trough moves east, it will force a cold front southward through western Kansas on Monday.
518 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast conus will lift out to the east on Monday, as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Large scale subsidence has overspread the region as of mid afternoon, slapping down the earlier instability which created locally heavy snow showers over parts of the Lower Susq River Valley during the midday hours.
225 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure through Monday.
200 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week, with a warming trend.
234 PM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A broad upper level trough over the western states will produce a southwest flow aloft over Colorado through Monday. Over the next 24 hours the upper level trough will split with one piece moving across Wyoming and the other part diving south into the Desert Southwest. The low cloud will likely be deep enough to produce drizzle over the northeast plains. Cooler temperatures will prevail Monday due to a cooler airmass and cloud cover. Northeast upslope winds increase and deepen through the day Monday as upper level troughiness sets up over the Central Rockies.
244 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 WAA is overrunning our CWA aloft with southerly flow ahead of a trough passing through southern Canada (currently entering western Manitoba). A negatively tilted 850 MB/700 MB trough is shown to briefly close of st it moves towards the southeastern part of our CWA. This raises the possibility of freezing drizzle or freezing rain in the 09-14Z period before a full transition to snow takes place. Lingering pcpn Mon eve will come to an end over northwest MN, perhaps as a mix of snow and freezing RA/DZ.
MVFR CIGS will then spread quickly north through the area after about 20-21z Monday as moisture moves in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. High pressure will continue to keep the area dry and mostly clear overnight.
342 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure ridge is extending back into the Midwest from Eastern Canada this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies resulting going into the overnight. The upper ridge over the Midwest shifts slightly to the east putting the region into a more southwesterly flow regime, with a series of short waves rotating around the deep trough over the southwestern CONUS.
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Southwest mid level flow becomes prevalent today ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. Bufkit sounding analysis still indicates a potential for freezing rain given a warm nose aloft. There is still uncertainty however, given progged surface temps will be right around freezing. the northwestern part of the forecast area (generally along and north of a Morris to Lake Mille Lacs line) looks to have the potential to pick up 1-3 inches of snow, while freezing rain could still be a threat east and south of that line during the morning.
125 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Strong high pressure will drift east across Quebec through Monday, with a ridge extending down into the Great Lakes providing more dry weather. Warmer air will arrive Monday and remain in place much of the week.
An upper trough was moving east away from NWRN CA during Sunday afternoon. Lingering showers occurring in the wake of the departing trough will quickly dissipate after sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating.
Leading edge of backdoor "wedge" cold front has moved just south of Eastman/Vidalia/Butler area and should be through the remainder of our forecast area (Columbus/Americus/Cordele) in the next 2-3 hours (early afternoon). Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed into the lower-mid 70s. MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist through the next 24-30 hours as moist/easterly low level flow behind "wedge" front prevails while energy and moisture rides overtop upr lvl ridge. Other story will be the increasing wind through the period as high pressure continues to strengthen along the east side of the Appalachians.
Today will see mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from the mid 30s over the east half to the low to mid 40s west half. Tonight will be warmer than early this morning due to increased cloud cover, stronger southerly flow, and a warmer and more moist airmass. Changes are on the way this week the area of high pressure that has brought tranquil weather to the region shifts over the northeast.
These waves were ejected from the western long wave trough that has kept North Dakota in an active weather pattern the past several days. Monday morning, precipitation will likely begin as snow and then soundings suggest a transition to a snow/freezing rain mix will ensue by the morning to early afternoon hours. Eventually, BUFKIT soundings suggest that we may lose cloud ice later in the afternoon and transition to all freezing rain. By Monday night the longwave trough finally begins to deamplify and move quickly across the region, placing North Dakota back into a northwest flow regime for a brief time.
215 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Currently across the area we have upper level ridging with a trough out in the western U. The trough out west will begin to sharpen with strong southwesterly flow aloft setting up over the region. In the lower levels, strong warm air and moisture advection will develop with elevated convection expected late this evening into the overnight hours.
345 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast conus will lift out to the east on Monday, as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Large scale subsidence has overspread the region as of mid afternoon, slapping down the earlier instability which created locally heavy snow showers over parts of the Lower Susq River Valley during the midday hours.
350 PM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Today is very similar, weather-wise, to yesterday with the only real difference being the upper level trough to our west being closer. The best returns are well to our west where the trough and weak front remain. Shortly after sunset, some showers should pick up over the Flat Tops and central mountains, maybe a few down in San Juans, but amounts will be on the low side. At the highest elevations, maybe a dusting of snow upwards to an inch. Tomorrow, the slow moving trough will be over the forecast area and will be the focus of isolated to scattered showers. High temperatures on Monday will be a bit cooler thanks to northerly wind flow ushering in cooler air.
255 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Models show an area of low pressure over the Central Plains at 12z Monday.
After lows in the mid/upper 60s tonight, high temperatures should climb into the lower/mid 80s (inland) tomorrow afternoon. Main period of concern remains the Tues through Thur timeframe as we await the arrival of the deeply digging upper trof from the W/ SW and its associated cold front. Given the ex- pected track of the upper low across the area/high PWs (up to 2") and somewhat favorable jet placement (RRQ-ish), the risk of heavy rainfall along with strong/severe storms will remain in place for this time frame. Drier/cooler weather should be moving across the region from west to east during the latter half of Thurs. 41 Winds will stay up for the next several days as the pressure gradient remains tight between high pressure to our east and lower pressure in the lee of the Rockies.
Main show will commence tonight as the main upper trough pushes into the region and supports increasing LSA. Initial round of convection will develop off the high terrain of eastern WY this afternoon, propagating NE and becoming elevated. Snow will begin to taper off late Monday morning into the early afternoon, with temps expected above freezing most places. For the remainder of the week, western CONUS ridging will prevail Tues and beyond, with the Northern Plains under active NW flow at the edge of the central NOAM trough. This will support cooler than average temps with periodic chances for rain/snow showers at times. This would support a much more pronounced central CONUS trough, with the potential for much below normal temps toward the end of the week.
128 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Aviation High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine today, although it will continue to feel cool with highs in the lower 40s and a brisk east wind. The high will move off to the east tonight and Monday will bring a southerly flow of air to the region.
200 PM PDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A low pressure trough over SoCal today will move east on Monday as high pressure builds off the coast.
Cigs will continue to slowly lift through the afternoon with most areas reaching low VFR status before lowering once again overnight into Monday morning as a cold front along the I-20 corridor slowly lifts back northward as a warm front. Winds will be mostly variable this afternoon and return southerly overnight with the warm front lifting back northward.
High pressure will continue to keep the area dry and mostly clear overnight.
MVFR conditions will spread north and west with time near and north of warm front, from northern Texas and southern Oklahoma over terminals this afternoon. Northeast winds will gradually become south tonight when a broad warm frontal passes. /issued 328 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ Southwest flow aloft on the eastern side of a large-scale upper trough over the western U. The weak front that passed Oklahoma yesterday will pass again to the north as a warm front later today and open up the area to a humid airmass.
Dry and warmer weather is expected for this coming work week. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the region each day through the first half of this week.
An upper level trough is moving through eastern WA and OR this morning. Cold unstable low pressure remains over the area today with mainly VFR conditions.
256 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A mid-upper level ridge centered over Central America reaches to the north-northeast, deep into the Mississippi River Valley. Dewpoints remain in the lower 60s.
Otw, the tafs will remain precip free until aft 12z when a warm front begins to lift northward and brings VCSH to the CKV area.
Thinking the guidance is more aggressive than necessary as winds look to stay up and help keep the lower atmosphere better mixed, shade back towards persistence some with a mix of MVFR and high IFR across the area.
Activity expected to end this evening as cooling stabilizes the low levels with mainly clear skies otherwise.
345 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Couple disturbances moving across the area into this evening with the most visible one moving towards the park with an apparent weak trailing frontal/trough boundary of isolated convection across ern ID. Could still see some drier lightning in the lower foothills but the majority of the mountains will likely not have 'dry' lightning.
A large upper ridge over the Great Basin will keep northerly flow going aloft while a slow moving Tropical Cyclone Harvey to our east continues to generate northerly flow at the surface.
230 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 will continue to lift northeast along the coast and well offshore tonight.
329 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017 High pressure aloft will remain over the Great Basin through Wednesday. Convective activity is sticking mostly to the mountains this afternoon and Cheyenne Ridge this afternoon, heading south in the northerly flow aloft. Expect similar temperatures tomorrow, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
Incoming Pac trof will weaken the ridging over Norcal enough to continue the brief respite from the heat into Wed. On Wed, synoptic cooling from the approaching trof should provide a few degrees of cooling over areas farther from the Delta while the Delta Breeze levels or slightly cools temps in the Delta influenced areas. Very subtle wave moving through the SWly flow between the Wwd drifting 4-Corners High and the incoming trof continues to spread some clouds/sprinkles Nwd over the Sierra and Foothills. Can't rule out a possible T-storm near the Crest south of Alpine Co late this afternoon, and afternoon thunder is possible again Wed afternoon roughly in the same area as the upper trof nears the region.
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: We've settled more firmly back into a typical summertime pattern across South Florida today as the western Atlantic ridge axis begins to work its way north and west from its position over the Florida Straits. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: Mid/upper level ridge will continue to build westward from the Atlantic through the remainder of the week.
158 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Some clouds and smoke are streaming into the region through northwest flow, as an upper ridge persists over the western CONUS. An upper trough will begin to break down the ridge on Wednesday.
637 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 A weak warm front will linger nearby through mid week before a cold front approaches from the north late in the week. But at the same time high pressure will build from the N, keeping any measurable rainfall south of the CWFA through daybreak. High pressure to the north will give way to some deeper moisture Wednesday north of a stationary front near the Gulf coast, which should push north into or even through the area Wednesday night as low pressure, once Hurricane Harvey, moves northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
344 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Fcst period will be characterized by a weakening ridge of high pressure as we say goodbye to the Fall-like cool/dry conditions between Harvey to the SW and an exiting low off the Carolina coast. With the lingering wedge of high pressure in the NE, we should stay primarily stable, though some southern and western areas could see enough instability realized to warrant a slight to low end chance of thunderstorms - only general in nature and no strong/severe threats this far away from the main Harvey circulation/helicity maximum.
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 High pressure will slowly move east of the region through Wednesday. Low pressure from the southeast states will track well south of Maine Wednesday and Wednesday night.
338 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 A weak cold front across Saskatchewan and into Manitoba was pushing south. For Wednesday, cooler behind the front, 75 to 85, though closer to 90 southwest nearer the thermal ridge.
336 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Large upper ridge aloft across the northern US with an upper trough across southeastern Canada into the Great Lakes Region/Northeast.
1256 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 A strong upper level high pressure system will remain anchored over the Utah/northern Arizona region through the next few days. To the east of the high, upper level northerly flow will persist over the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will be nearly stationary from the western Great Lakes into the central High Plains. With gulf moisture cut off by the low level flow across the southern Plains, this generally subsident pattern will result in mainly clear skies over western Kansas. With full sunshine, temperatures today should be able to top out in the mid to upper 80s while tonight should see lows back into the mid 50s given the lower dewpoints across the area.
613 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 High pressure will remain over the region tonight through Wednesday while an ocean storm passes well to our south.
159 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 An upper level trough will move across the region today.
After, skies will begin to clear as drier air and weak high pressure build in. Fog will burn off quickly after sunrise Wednesday morning leading to a partly sunny day with highs rebounding to near 80 as warm advection picks up ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 1 PM PDT, water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper- level ridge centered over the Nevada/Utah/Arizona border, and an upper-level trough off the coast of the Pacific NW. Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible over the mountains and portions of the High Deserts through early this evening. The upper-level ridge will remain in place through the middle of the week.
CAMs continue to show most activity east of the forecast area as a cold front moves south out of Manitoba this evening. Less capping with cooler mid level temps to the northeast of the area will allow convection to develop. In its wake winds will be northeasterly tomorrow with 925mb temps 5 to 10C cooler than the today.
An upper ridge parked over the western states will be shift east a bit into Wednesday as a trough off the West Coast moves in. There will be a trough working its way into the Pacific Northwest.
142 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Light rain will exit south central and southeastern parts of central PA as low pressure tracks away from the coast tonight and Wednesday.
405 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 The high pressure over the western Great Lakes will continue to shift south and east overnight. A cool front will drop south through the Northland later this evening, making its way to the Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota by dawn. The low wind speeds, mostly clear skies, and high relatively humidity overnight means another night of potential fog. Breezy northeast flow will develop over and downwind of Lake Superior in the wake of the front, keeping areas from the Twin Ports to northern Wisconsin near the Lake cooler than inland areas. High pressure will build across the Northland behind the departing cool from Wednesday evening ushering in a period of quiet weather for the remainder of the work week. Mid-level ridging will build across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.
324 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Upper air and satellite data continue to show well amplified north- northwesterly flow across the region, thanks to a large area of high pressure/ridging affecting the western half of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered over eastern NE up through western WI, keeping winds across the area light/variable to east-southeasterly around 5-10 MPH. At the surface, high pressure is shown by models to be centered a touch further east than it was this morning, but it's still in close proximity. Highs for tomorrow are forecast to be similar to today, reaching the lower to mid 80s.
Trough axis and band of deeper moisture shift north of the area into tonight, with showers gradually decreasing in coverage toward sunset and shifting offshore into this evening. With mostly to partly sunny skies expected for most of the day, highs will reach the low to mid 90s in the afternoon.
335 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 18Z surface data has high pressure running from the northern Great Lakes into the central Plains. The northern half of the area would be favored being under the high.
This matches up well with the western periphery of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure that controls the weather across our service area. Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is situated just offshore of the Carolina Outerbanks region, also moving to the northeast, but at a much faster pace near 20 mph. With the Atlantic ridge of high pressure stretched across the Keys and South Florida tonight and Wednesday, rain chances will be below climatology and remain slight. This is in response to the aforementioned ridge lifting northward, bisecting the Florida Peninsula.
210 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017 A 594dm high pressure center remains centered over southwest Utah early this afternoon with northerly flow aloft over the area. The upper ridge is forecast to slowly move east tomorrow as an upper level trough and pacific cold front move onto the west coast. A few mid and upper level clouds will spill over the ridge and into the area from the north, especially Wednesday.
507 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Low pressure, located near Cape Hatteras this evening, will track northeast and out to sea tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build into Pennsylvania late tonight and Wednesday.