Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
147 AM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict upper trough axis centered across central MT into SW WY with broadly cyclonic flow across the Northern Plains. The surface cold front has surged southward into NE, bending back northward through northeastern WY. These showers will slowly work across the area this morning as trough axis pivots eastward. Upper divergence along with embedded perturbations along the trough axis will support continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through today. Today will be cooler behind the front, with rain and clouds helping to limit high temperatures to the upper 60s to around mid 70s today. An anomalously strong upper ridge will be in place across the Pacific NW, supporting record temperatures through the weekend while the Northern Plains will be under the stubborn influence of the upper trough.
500 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure east of Kentucky and low pressure to the northwest with a general southerly flow of air due to the gradient between these systems. Accordingly, a decent ridge to valley temperature split has developed with readings in the upper 50s in the most sheltered spots and closer to 70 on the hills. They all depict ridging strengthening to the southeast of Kentucky through the first part of the weekend. This occurs as southwest flow, at the base of a large trough covering much of Canada, just to the northwest of the area is shunted back west.
Today and Tonight: Upper ridge remains off to the east of the area, with another ridge across the southern Plains. Our area remains between the two, with some weak upper troughing still being indicated. The western Atlantic ridge will strengthen some later tonight as it begins to build further westward. At the surface, a weak coastal trough may try moving slightly inland today, bringing a few showers into the coastal plain this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise another mild and dry day is on tap for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure to our northeast continues to keep rain chances out of the area. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, which is a few degrees cooler than our climatological normals for this time of year.
Models suggest that the low level jet may try to reorient becoming more westerly over time, potentially drawing drier air into the region and allowing conditions to dry out a bit.
321 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Strong high pressure will shift off the Atlantic coast today and become stationary. As of 140 AM Friday: Stratocu has developed along and west of the Blue Ridge Escarpment early this morning in the moist, easterly flow. Highs will be warmer today as thicknesses rise, but still nearly 5 degrees below normal. These storms will be diurnally driven, with isol showers possibly lingering across the higher terrain during the overnight periods in continued mech lift. The overall pattern will not evolve much with the area dominated stg sub-trop ridging, while a stationary front remains situated well NW of the FA. At KCLT and elsewhere: Copious low VFR stratocu has developed in the moist, weak upslope flow along and west of the Blue Ridge escarpment.
1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Summary: A cold front over far southeastern portion of the CWA will move southeastward out of the area by this evening.
405 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Low pressure off the mid atlantic coast is feeding the northern part of the CWA a wedge front that is turning off the afternoon convection by starving the area of moisture. Today's dewpoints will be in the low to mid 50's, something uncommon for this point in the summer.
301 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Latest surface analysis continues to show a 1028mb high pressure over the eastern seaboard with a serpentine quasi-stationary boundary stretching across the Gulf states and up the MS Valley to a 1003mb low pressure center over central KS. Expect a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon across southern Indiana and northern KY as the aforementioned boundary pushes through the region as a weak warm front. But high pressure should continue to exert enough influence over the region to keep most of the CWA dry today. Our position between eastern high pressure and central CONUS low pressure will result in a tightening pressure gradient with gusty southerly winds today.
We'll see a slight shift tomorrow as thermal ridge axis pokes a touch further to the east with temps similar to today, but a few degrees hotter. The upper ridge will break down over West Texas in conjunction with a lee-side trough kicking through the Central plains during the afternoon.
226 AM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 The forecast area will be in NW to northerly flow aloft the next few days with an upper level high over the Pacific NW and British Columbia and a trough over the Dakotas. The northerly flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures to the region today.
An upper level dirty ridge was over the region, keeping convection up across the Interstate 70 corridor.
These storms are expected to eventually reinforce a cold front that is moving across much of the state. In the wake of the boundary, we will see cooler highs for today. The first area is along the convectively reinforced cold front along and south of Highway 50. The second more conditional area is for storms developing along the higher terrain of eastern Colorado. The big picture is that a strong 500-hPa anticyclone will amplify over the Pacific Northwest into B. The intense heat associated with this mid level ridge will remain far away from the forecast area. A generally drier trend is expected during the weekend as storm activity Friday night convectively enhances the cold front to move farther south with drier air advecting in from the north. A warm front is expected to gradually lift northward by mid week.
208 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
A weak upper trough will pass by just to our north and we may therefore be able to squeeze out a few showers along the Tennessee River this afternoon where dew points are greatest.
Weak ridging will dominate over the East Coast and Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will be over the East Coast and Southeast. High pressure and a relatively dry air mass over the region will keep rain chances very low (near zero) and skies mostly sunny/clear today and tonight.
An inverted trough looks to cross the northern Florida Peninsula and eventually make its way into the NE Gulf throughout the day today.
(Today and tonight) The ridge will remain over the area today, keeping our weather quiet and hot.
The Mid-South is located under an upper ridge and fully enveloped in a warm and humid airmass. Hot and humid pattern with upper level high pressure in place.
455 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure east of Kentucky and low pressure to the northwest with a general southerly flow of air due to the gradient between these systems. Accordingly, a decent ridge to valley temperature split has developed with readings in the upper 50s in the most sheltered spots and closer to 70 on the hills. They all depict ridging strengthening to the southeast of Kentucky through the first part of the weekend. This occurs as southwest flow, at the base of a large trough covering much of Canada, just to the northwest of the area is shunted back west.
The low clouds will persist for a few hours after daybreak, but VFR conditions should return areawide by 25/16z. Rinse and repeat for Friday as little if any change will be found with the placement of the upper level ridge axis.
432 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 The region will be between weak low pressure and an stalled front to the west and Bermuda high pressure to the east. Temperatures are forecast into the lower to mid 80s.
LLWS expected at all sites through the night as the low-level jet strengthens. A cold front, along with increasing thunderstorm chances, will move into far northeast OK toward 03-06Z.
1101 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 The cold front has moved through most of the forecast area except for southeastern Minnesota and parts of west central Wisconsin. After any storms exit this evening we will be dry through most of Friday before low pressure moving south of the area through Iowa brings back the chance for showers to southern parts of the forecast area Friday night. Temperatures won't change much behind the front with Friday being only slightly cooler than today, but with more comfortable dewpoints for all.
630 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 (Today and tonight) The ridge will remain over the area today, keeping our weather quiet and hot.
Upper ridge remains off to the east of the area, with another ridge across the southern Plains. Our area remains between the two, with some weak upper troughing still being indicated. The western Atlantic ridge will strengthen some later tonight as it begins to build further westward. At the surface, a weak coastal trough may try moving slightly inland today, bringing a few showers into the coastal plain this afternoon and evening. An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build westward to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday while deep east/southeast flow off the Atlantic will push an axis of higher moisture over the forecast area with PWATs exceeding 1.
/issued 320 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure initially centered over the Arklatex region will rapidly shift west as an inverted mid-level trough approaches from the east.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Broad upper level ridging is still situated over the Southern Plains. This ridge will continue to break down over the next few days as an upper level trof continues to dig across the central CONUS. A cold front assocd with the deepening longwave trof over the Central Plains will progress thru the TX panhandle on Saturday morning. Storms may develop along and head of the cold front as it sags southward Saturday evening.
Another round of thunderstorms and rain is expected today as an upper level trough moves through the area. A slow moving cold front should pass through the area in the morning hours resulting in high temperatures in the 70s.
The subtropical ridge is centered over the Atlantic and stretches into the northern gulf coast. Weak ridging aloft will break down through the next couple days. A short wave is digging into the northern and central sections of the country which is eroding the weak ridge.
A broad upper trough extends from the Desert Southwest through the Central Rockies and Northern Plains into a deep closed low over Hudson Bay Canada. A disturbance ahead of this trough is currently located across the western panhandle and northeast CO, will lift northeastward today and bring likely to categorical chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. Mainly cloudy skies, rainfall and a cold front passage will limit highs today to the upper 60s northwest Sandhills to the mid and upper 70s east and southwest. For tonight, the main upper trough axis will move through western NE, and bring likely chances this evening to the northeastern half of the area, with chance POPs to the west. On Saturday, the upper trough will remain in place across the region. Highs were scaled by to the low to mid 70s.
High clouds continue across the area this morning with ridging across the Eastern CONUS in control of our weather. Some weak convection may initiate over the highest elevations of the mountains this afternoon, but probabilities remain low. Weak ridging will dominate over the East Coast and Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will be over the East Coast and Southeast. High pressure and a relatively dry air mass over the region will keep rain chances very low (near zero) and skies mostly sunny/clear today and tonight.
The general pattern aloft shows a trough axis draped across the Intermountain West with west-southwest flow over the central Plains. A synoptic quasi-stationary front is expected to be located across northeast KS this afternoon, which could lift north as a warm front into the evening hours. The upper pattern will be slow to evolve as a blocking area of high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS.
1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure will keep fair weather over our region today. Ridging looks to gradually re-establish itself across the area from south to north during the afternoon on Saturday.
514 AM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict upper trough axis centered across central MT into SW WY with broadly cyclonic flow across the Northern Plains. The surface cold front has surged southward into NE, bending back northward through northeastern WY. These showers will slowly work across the area this morning as trough axis pivots eastward. Upper divergence along with embedded perturbations along the trough axis will support continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through today. Today will be cooler behind the front, with rain and clouds helping to limit high temperatures to the upper 60s to around mid 70s today. An anomalously strong upper ridge will be in place across the Pacific NW, supporting record temperatures through the weekend while the Northern Plains will be under the stubborn influence of the upper trough.
Isolated to scattered light showers have developed across the PAH forecast area ahead of a weak upper level trof moving through the region, and southeast of a slowly weakening MCS over the north half of Missouri into central Illinois. On Saturday, an upper level trof will be deepening from central Canada into the southwest U. This trof will slowly drift east through the weekend. With our region persistently on the east side of this trof, along with plentiful low level moisture, convection will remain possible, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Models suggest that the low level jet may try to reorient becoming more westerly over time, potentially drawing drier air into the region and allowing conditions to dry out a bit. Low level jet may try to lift north through the night, but northwest flow wrapping around weak low pressure in Iowa may limit how far north low level jet can expand north. Wet pattern continues into Saturday with southwest flow continuing ahead of slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Until the cold front is able to work through the area on Saturday night, looks to be quite wet.
Orographic cloud cover will quickly build over typical terrain initiation areas by mid-morning owing to unseasonably moist conditions in the lower levels. Surface dewpoints are progged to once again run in the low to mid 40s, even after surface mixing commences later in the morning. Convective models develop the first round of showers and thunderstorms by 17-18z in the higher terrain, and any thunderstorms will have the potential for brief drenching downpours given the seasonably high PWAT and surface moisture in place. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms will be less common on Saturday, and will remain more over the higher terrain in the central Colorado ranges along the Continental Divide.
Today Through Saturday Night To begin the period, high pressure will continue to be in control. The upper level ridge that brought cooler temperatures earlier this week has since moved east returning southerly flow to the CWA. Given this southerly flow and an upper level trough just to the west, PoPs remain elevated for mostly the eastern and northern half of AR through the period.
617 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Today will be the beginning of a transition to a much more active pattern as a cold front slowly pushes southward into our area later today and begins to stall through the weekend. By late in the afternoon, CAM guidance is in good agreement on extensive thunderstorm development along the length of the cold front from the TX panhandle east-northeastward into northern OK and southern KS.
An upper level dirty ridge was over the region, keeping convection up across the Interstate 70 corridor. Cooler temperatures will result from the cloud cover and precipitation next work week with highs in the low 80s on an afternoon basis.
A low pressure system is expected to lift from the lower Ohio River Valley into the norther Great Lakes today within quasi-zonal flow aloft. Strong sfc ridging should shunt the low far enough north/west to keep the forecast area dry, though far eastern OH may experience enough heating/jet support to yield an isolated thunderstorm. A hot and humid weekend is on tap as the southeastern ridge strengthens in response to a slightly deepening central U. trough, with warm, moist air in SW sfc flow moving around the Atlantic high.
540 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Several mostly rain-free days are expected under a strengthening ridge, with the exception of some portions of east-central Ohio, which may receive a few showers. Another meteorologically quiet morning is in progress across the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains as the area remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. Satellite imagery shows broad upper- level troughing centered across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The majority of HREF members show line dissipating across central/eastern Ohio in the late afternoon/early evening before redeveloping more convection farther NW along an effective warm front ahead of another approaching meso-low. The upper-level wave pattern progresses such that broad troughing will deepen across the northern and central Plains, with ridging established across much of the eastern CONUS.
648 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Strong high pressure will shift off the Atlantic coast today and become stationary. Highs will be warmer today as thicknesses rise, but still nearly 5 degrees below normal. These storms will be diurnally driven, with isol showers possibly lingering across the higher terrain during the overnight periods in continued mech lift. The overall pattern will not evolve much with the area dominated stg sub-trop ridging, while a stationary front remains situated well NW of the FA.
Aloft, the main trof axis will begin to move across the area during the afternoon hours and provide lift to drive some afternoon convection. The trof then looks to stall for several days over the area. With the stalled trof aloft, we will continue to see periodic afternoon (mostly diurnally driven) chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least mid week.
1022 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Strong high pressure will shift off the Atlantic coast today and become stationary. Cumulus are already present along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and should develop across the Piedmont this afternoon. Highs will be warmer today as thicknesses rise; updated T/Td slightly thru the day, but still looking at values nearly 5 degrees below normal. These storms will be diurnally driven, with isol showers possibly lingering across the higher terrain during the overnight periods in continued mech lift. The overall pattern will not evolve much with the area dominated stg sub-trop ridging, while a stationary front remains situated well NW of the FA.
Southeast TX continues to be under the influence of an upper-level ridge, so temperatures will remain hot with highs in the low-to-mid 90s.
With southerly winds today along with partial clearing, high temperatures will be warmer today and slightly above normal across central and southeast MO and southwest IL. The chance of showers/storms will continue on Saturday, particularly across northeast and central MO and west central IL ahead of a slow moving cold front.
/22/ Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the eastern periphery of 591dam ridge resulting in northerly flow aloft. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing across our CWA from the northeast resulting in a southeast low level flow across our CWA. Most sites reached the lower 90s yesterday. Temperatures are expected to top out slightly cooler today ranging from the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west. /22/ This weekend: The weather pattern will feature an upper trough extending from the upper Midwest into the southwestern CONUS being held in check by mid/upper ridging extending from the Deep South into the northern Atlantic.
The prevailing weather pattern for the short term is ridging aloft which will result in subsidence over South Texas. Then the high begins to will begin shifting off to the west as an inverted trough approaches from the east.
820 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Several mostly rain-free days are expected under a strengthening ridge, with the exception of some portions of east-central Ohio, which may receive a few showers. Another meteorologically quiet morning is in progress across the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains as the area remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. Satellite imagery shows broad upper- level troughing centered across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. The majority of HREF members show line dissipating across central/eastern Ohio in the late afternoon/early evening before redeveloping more convection farther NW along an effective warm front ahead of another approaching meso-low. The upper-level wave pattern progresses such that broad troughing will deepen across the northern and central Plains, with ridging established across much of the eastern CONUS.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over Texas. The low level flow was from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place over South Central Texas. The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate through the short term period. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than the last couple of days.
Temperatures are mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s along and west of the Mississippi River, with upper 80s out east. The Mid-South is located under an upper ridge and fully enveloped in a warm and humid airmass. Hot and humid pattern with upper level high pressure in place.
/Today through Saturday/ An upper ridge over the forecast area will continue to weaken today. Daytime highs should be in the lower to mid 90s with peak heat index values above 100 degrees F in most locations. However, this should be brief and with slightly cooler temperatures expected for Saturday, no heat headlines will be issued. However, the dissipation of the upper ridge may allow for the afternoon sea breeze convection to develop earlier and move slightly farther north into the area compared to today. Increased cloud cover should result in daytime high temperatures being a couple of degrees cooler, but the main difference will be felt in the slightly lower dewpoints, which should help keep heat index values near or slightly below 100 degrees F for most locations.
644 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure will keep fair weather over our region today.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will be gusty today with high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the northwest.
700 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 A weak trough of low pressure moves into the coastal areas Friday morning, then diminishes while pushing inland Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure remains centered well offshore over the weekend, as a weak trough lingers off the southeast coast. Current sfc analysis shows high pressure extending southwest into the Carolinas. A warm front is located along the coast and will move northwest during the day today, with increasing clouds and rain/storm chances. Dew points will be rising into the low 70s behind the front. As the warm front moves across the area, it will provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s. Weakening trough will remain over the area into Saturday afternoon. Warmer temperatures with higher humidity are expected Saturday.
However, the boundary over us is expected to weaken and deteriorate today as the main low moves further away in addition to ridging just to the E along the Atlantic States. Rain chances on Saturday should show a return to more normal summertime mainly afternoon diurnally influenced convection as SE onshore flow takes over around the east coast ridge.