Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
613 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
Boxell (Issued 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021) Tonight through Friday night: Very moist airmass over the cooler lake waters resulting in lake fog tickling the shoreline from time to time. Mid level ridging expands across the area Friday with 925 temps into he mid 20s celsius. Will leave out of grids for now as coverage and confidence in occurring on the low side here especially when we are all looking for rain, so prefer to hold off on advertising this potential for now. A little different story across the western cwa as a wave is proggd to break down the ridging a bit for the later afternoon and evening hours.
The area remains wedged between a narrowly tilted ridge extending from northern Mexico into the Plains, and mean troughing over the eastern and western coasts. Over time the ridge will continue to build across the Plains and southwestern US, although the flow pattern aloft will largely continue out of the north and northwest over time. The principal change in the forecast will be a cold front pushing down across the area by the end of the weekend.
After some morning cloudiness, skies have become mostly sunny across the region, with temps warming into the 70s for the mts, 80s for the high valleys, and 90s for the plains. Winds have been gusty as well, with southwest winds gusting up close to 40 mph for the higher terrain, while across the plains southerly winds have been reported with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. This will be a dry cold front however, so dry conditions will continue through tomorrow and the main benefit will be high temps about 10-15 degrees cooler through the aftn. Overnight lows tonight will cool into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to near 60F for the plains.
856 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
Friday will be the most pleasant day with the coolest highs in the lower to middle 80s.
934 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few days ahead of a cold front.
Dewpoints fall into the 50s through the day as the cooler air is markedly drier, too.
Strong high pressure system will build across Arizona over the coming days.
720 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
Models in good agreement that another trough off the Pacific Northwest will move onshore through North CA Friday and continue to provide the cool onshore flow across central CA.
High pressure is centered to our south with southwest flow over NM. This high will strengthen and move north into NM this weekend. A back door cold front will arrive in the northeast late tonight and make progress south on Friday.
However, with the trough axis slowly sliding east, flow aloft will gradually transition to more W/NW flow. Friday: A warmer afternoon looks in store as stronger mid-level ridging builds in from the west.
1054 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
For the overnight hours, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the low- mid 70s.
919 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 An upper low continues to linger over the region. Latest CAMs are not nearly as aggressive as the past few nights so perhaps with the upper trough shifting slightly east, the low level flow a touch weaker, PWATs a touch lower, the setup is not quite as good.
Temperatures climb as much as 20 to 30 degrees through the weekend compared to the cooler temperatures we saw through this afternoon.
Models do show increasing convergence and moisture transport pushing back into the area around daybreak (6 or 7 AM) on Friday, as the main trough axis pushes southeast into central Tennessee and NW Alabama.
Friday, a cooler, post-frontal, drier environment will be in place with persistent gusty west winds, keeping the need for the current Lake Wind Advisory in place. By Friday night, the main active and forcing mechanisms will be past and calmer conditions will return, allbeit under a building broad ridge of high pressure from the south. A trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the area creating an environment conducive for severe thunderstorms. As the trough moves NE across the area this evening, low RH will wrap NNE across the warning area as a dryline pushes east through the warned area. A cold front will move through the area by around midnight tonight bringing cooler conditions, breezy NW winds and higher RH values.
644 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the region Friday morning with gusty north winds in its wake. Technically speaking, a cold front passes through tomorrow morning. However, it's not going to feel like a "cold front" because temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s for a lot of places tomorrow afternoon with some areas flirting around 100-103 degrees. This is somewhat uncommon for us as we normally don't have this high of dewpoints, so the dewpoints actually cause a lower heat index value.
In addition, light rain is expected to develop on Friday, with the highest probability for wetting rain in Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. and the lowest probability occurring in Lake county.
707 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 19Z Water Vapor Imagery/RAP analysis indicated CWA under amplified ridge aloft with strong short wave trough lifting north east into Montana. At the surface, a hot and very humid airmass was in place, with several locations recording dewpoints in the low 70s and the HLC area has already seen heat indices of 105 degrees. Main concern for the forecast period will be cold frontal passage tonight and resulting thunderstorm chances, winds and temperature impacts. Otherwise weather will be quiet across the area until after 06 UTC as cold front approaches. Cold front will be accompanied by 4-6 mb pressure rises and strong CAA. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler on Friday into Friday night with winds gradually decreasing by the evening.
There was a trend yesterday evening with more of the high resolution models showing the current storms continuing to move east, but the stronger storms diving more into South Dakota. The rest of the day will feature increasing west winds and much cooler temperatures.
226 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Scattered showers and storms have been more widespread tonight in comparison to the last couple of nights with the trough axis very close to the area. Today is finally moving day for the large upper trough. The trough axis will slowly work east of the area during the daylight hours. With dew points in the lower 70s and temperatures climbing to around 90, afternoon heat index values will approach the upper 90s tomorrow afternoon.
This activity will primarily be limited to the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Region with a more conditional threat of thunderstorms along the dryline over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. The 850 mb thermal ridge will move slightly east into portions of Eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas.
Models do show increasing convergence and moisture transport pushing back into the area around daybreak (6 or 7 AM) on Friday, as the main trough axis pushes southeast into central Tennessee and NW Alabama. Dry weather, but mild, returns to the Tennessee Valley as an upper level ridge develops over the area.
An upper level ridge axis extended from west TX into MN early this morning with the forecast area on the eastern edges of the ridge axis. The bulk of the convection will continue on pushing south and out of the area by the late evening, but additional convection will remain possible into Saturday with the main focus along the cold front. Highs should climb into the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 100 to 105 in most locations. Temperatures will likely be a smidgen cooler on Saturday than we have today, but a lot of that will be determined by how much convection coverage we have.
337 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Hot and humid weather will prevail across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower 90s. 08z/3am water vapor imagery shows pronounced ridge axis extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. while persistent trough that has triggered daily showers/storms across the KILX CWA has shifted well to the east into the Ohio River Valley. Other than that, am expecting a very warm and humid day across central Illinois with highs mostly in the lower 90s.
/issued 919 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ An upper low continues to linger over the region. Latest CAMs are not nearly as aggressive as the past few nights so perhaps with the upper trough shifting slightly east, the low level flow a touch weaker, PWATs a touch lower, the setup is not quite as good. Latest model guidance indicates the upper trough will finally lift out of the area on Friday. At that point, northwest flow will set up across the Mid- South as the area will be in between an upper trough across the East CONUS and a building upper ridge to the West.
Dewpoints fall into the 50s through the day as the cooler air is markedly drier, too. Highs begin climbing again with the redevelopment of the mid-level ridge on Saturday.
252 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 The pesky upper level trough that has brought the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of central Indiana over the last few days will slowly continue to exit the area with a broad ridge building across the Central United States. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected again today with the most widespread coverage across the southeastern counties where forcing associated with the low will provide additional lift in addition to the diurnally driven forcing. The more widespread rain and clouds across the southeast should keep highs from reaching much above the mid 80s with temperatures in the low 90s across the west where cloud cover will be less. A series of weak vort maxes will be rounding the ridge and providing some minor lift in addition to convective temperatures being reached.
An upper trough over the region will gradually shift eastward through Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the southwestern states will build eastward. With a northwest steering flow for convection (due to the position of the upper trof), convection which develops during the day northwest of the area will have the potential to move into the forecast area. The highest rain chances will be over northeast portions of the region, closer to the axis of the upper trough and higher deep layer moisture. Southwestern portions of the area will be more under the influence of the upper ridge and strong subsidence, resulting in less convective coverage. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Strong W-NW winds associated with yesterday's cold front and thunderstorm activity have been decreasing since the evening. Have cancelled the High Wind Warning for all remaining zones. Satellite imagery shows dynamic upper trof moving thru eastern MT. Showers have developed ahead of this trof near Miles City and Baker, and also on the back side of the PV max from Harlowton to Roundup and just north of Billings. It is nice to see this precipitation but it will be short-lived, ending by 12z as the trof continues to lift to the northeast.
However, strong winds are occurring and will likely continue over the next few hours over southeast Montana as a cold front moves eastward into the Dakotas. Friday is looking breezy, cooler, but otherwise much quieter weatherwise under mostly sunny skies. RMS Sharp trough passage expected today to produce a dynamic and active weather situation across the region. This will all be generally covered by the High Wind Warning we have in place from 5 pm to 3 am from Rosebud County eastward. Trough axis pushes through to the Dakotas after about 1 am tonight, so we expect diminishing winds for most areas after midnight. 500mb ridging will continue to prevail for Saturday with dry conditions and temps pushing into the 80s to near 90. Wind and precipitation will be minimal to none with the high pressure that is in place.
Subtropical ridging centered nearby maintains a dry subsident airmass aloft with no rain expected.
Scattered showers and even one thunderstorm are in progress in this area, and an isolated storm will continue to be possible early this morning given that the upper trough is directly overhead and the atmosphere is weakly unstable. The upper level trough continues to drift southeast today, on its way to the Appalachians tonight. Expect a warm and humid afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. Over the weekend, a large upper level ridge will begin to amplify over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West while a trough digs into the eastern CONUS. Flow aloft will remain out of the north and northwest over the lower Ohio Valley.
Brief dry weather is expected Saturday under weak high pressure. Isolated/scattered showers will still be possible overnight with the area in close proximity to an upper low, and plenty of moisture in place. The meandering upper low will slowly trek east Friday as it attempts to merge with a more northern-stream trough. Closer proximity to the low center will create additional areas of lift, aiding another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A shift to weak NW flow will develop into Saturday as the upper low moves east of the Ohio River Valley.
Today Through Saturday Night An upper level high pressure system is centered over west Texas and models indicate it will remain in this location through Saturday. The latest sounding indicates drier air over the state in the higher levels, but lower levels are very moist. Rain chances today and Saturday will be lower than they have been the last few days with the influence of the high pressure. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s and in the upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday night.
134 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few days as a cold front drops in.
There is increasing high clouds from west to east with the approach of the next Pacific weather system, which is associated with a large upper low pressure system off the Canadian coast. The westerly flow that was over the forecast area will become southwest tonight as this upper low moves southeast and closer to the PacNW. There will be a weakening cold front, which will move across the region on Friday.
Satellite imagery shows a well defined low pressure spinning offshore along with the associated front that will move onshore tonight and push inland during the early morning hours Friday.
148 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Low pressure over southwestern Ohio will wobble across southern Ohio through the day. A slightly stronger cold front will move into the central Great Lakes on Saturday.
Another warm and humid day is on tap across South Texas as upper level ridging remains in control of the region. However, moisture remains rather limited with the bulk of the moisture confined to the lowest levels. Throughout the day, a H5 inverted trough will continue to take shape across the southwestern Gulf but looks to stay too far south to influence our weather.
MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) indicates that this is the northern portion of a pocket of moisture over the Caribbean Sea that is moving west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Temperatures across the island communities are in the lower 80s and the dew point values are in the lower to mid 70s. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will continue to lose influence over the Florida Keys as upper level trough dives equatorward across the northwest Atlantic and NE United States.
(Today and tonight) Another very hot day in store across West Central Texas with temperatures likely a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Warm again tonight with lows only in the low to mid 70s.
309 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania into tonight, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
319 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Strong upper ridge will be centered over W TX today and result in excessive heat for the region.
Low pressure forms and passes well to the south Friday and Saturday.
Beyond Saturday, the better mid level flow pushes well north of the area, while at the surface, drier air attempts to backdoor into the area as canadian high pressure settles across the midwest.
A weak cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma around midday and move slowly southeast during the afternoon hours.
Today through Saturday A strong cold front that moved through the state is now east of the area.
358 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Low pressure forms and passes well to the south today and Saturday.
Friday, a cooler, post-frontal, drier environment will be in place with persistent gusty west winds, keeping the need for the current Lake Wind Advisory in place. By Friday night, the main active and forcing mechanisms will be past and calmer conditions will return, allbeit under a building broad ridge of high pressure from the south. SYNOPSIS: A cold front will continue across far eastern MT this evening before exiting to the east into the Dakotas after midnight. A trough of low pressure and cold front are forecast to exit to the east into the Dakotas early Friday morning. Building high pressure will bring drying conditions and cooler temperatures Friday.
/issued 319 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021/ Strong upper ridge will be centered over W TX today and result in excessive heat for the region.
POPs start creeping upward later tonight as an upper trough dives in from the northwest. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 71 90 70 90 / 60 50 30 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 69 86 68 87 / 70 50 40 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 82 69 87 68 87 / 70 50 30 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 67 83 64 84 / 70 60 60 20 40.
1138 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE Southwest winds aloft with upper high center to the south of NM. High pressure is centered to our south with southwest flow over NM. This high will strengthen and move north into NM this weekend. A back door cold front will arrive in the northeast late tonight and make progress south on Friday.
A strong high pressure system will build across Arizona over the coming days.
Upper trough expected to push through the area this period.
249 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the early morning hours as a 500 mb trough axis swings through the Southeast. Otherwise, persistent cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures slightly below daily normal values as we peak in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Northwest flow aloft behind the mid-level trough axis will push moisture from the Corn Belt into the TN Valley, and we will see dew points push uncomfortably into the mid 70s tomorrow during the day. Coupled with the high dew points, heat index values will top out in the upper 90s to potentially near triple digits.
The broad mid to upper level troughing centered over the Ohio Valley will continue to slowly slide eastward today. Today's rain chances chances look to be the highest of the next 2 days and already are being realized with convection in northern MS. The next round should be further south on Saturday, with the highest rain chances across the souther counties.
Surface cold front was moving through the western ND/SD/NE, preceded by a line of intense convection preceding the front.
Dewpoints have actually dropped a little into the lower 70s this afternoon, likely due to some increased mixing in the boundary layer. Heat indices have climbed into the low 100s in some locations but it appears that they have generally maxed out for this afternoon. A cold front, forced south by the upper wave, will move into the central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will be spreading into the region. Fairly quiet weather can be expected Friday night and Saturday as high pressure settles into the central High Plains.
May still see showers overnight mainly in southeast counties where an upper trough will be interacting with an MCV and a humid airmass. Highs will top out in the low 80s in the east under a bit more cloud cover and proximity to earlier showers, to the mid 80s over and west of the I-75 corridor with more sunshine. Increasingly amplified pattern across the CONUS for the extended, with an impressively strong upper ridge building over the SW CONUS dominating the weather pattern, and a deep trough that develops into a cutoff low over Ontario/Quebec. For the start of the period Saturday, drier air will descend into the region accompanied by a cold frontal passage later in the day.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure centered over west Texas will remain the dominant force over the BRO CWFA during the period.
A conditional threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms will exist tonight depending on if they can develop along an approaching cold front this evening. However, a relatively greater chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will exist Saturday as the cold front, albeit weak and diffuse, presses southward across the area throughout the day. The highest chances of precip are anticipated across southeastern MO and southwestern IL during the afternoon, where the front will likely be present during peak heating. Temps should be slightly cooler on Saturday with increased cloud cover; however, weak moisture convergence in proximity to the cold front will cause surface dewpoints to be slightly higher. Therefore, another warm day with high temps around 90 to the low 90sF and heat indices approaching 100F can be expected in east- central and southeastern MO as well as southwestern IL.
217 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Pattern change will begin to take place today and tonight as a weak U/L trough sinks south over the Florida peninsula displacing the persistent U/L ridge.
343 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Warm and humid conditions under upper level low pressure should maintain showers and thunderstorm chances across the region today. A mid/upper level low should continue to drift east across the Upper Ohio Valley region today. The mid/upper low is progged to phase with a nrn stream trough tonight. Expect showers and thunderstorms to end from N-S as the trough completes its passage.
416 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 A moist airmass combined with a low pressure system moving through the area will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley today. Mid level trof remains positioned over Southern Ohio. This low along with moderate instability will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Highs temperatures to range from the mid 80s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. Low temperatures to range from the lower 60s northeast to the upper 60s southwest.
Strong cold front continues to push east through our western and central forecast area. Temperatures will be much cooler today with daytime highs expected to be closer to normal for this time of year. The latter half of the period(first half of the weekend) will begin to see the upper ridge start to build back into the region.
430 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 An upper level low resides across the region this morning with a very moist airmass in place. The upper level low continues to provide some weak ascent that has led to some heavy showers and storms overnight. With the upper level low virtually on top of us, storm movement has been very slow to almost stationary at times. The upper level low will shift eastward tonight with a weak trough axis shifting southward across the area. A weak cold front will accompany this, bringing a chance of showers/storms mainly in the afternoon and especially along the Virginia Border. To the west, a large ridge will sit across the Midwest keeping the upper level pattern very meridional.