Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
525 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Key Message: - Much cooler today, active weather returns midweek. Precipitation has shifted out of the forecast area this morning, leaving behind a large area of stratus underneath the departing upper low. Even with the sun later in the day, high temperatures will be at least 15 degrees cooler, reaching the middle 50s to near 60. The high will slide off to the east overnight, leaving northeast Missouri under the greatest influence. Upper ridging builds into the MO Valley on Tuesday in advance of the next highly-amplified trough. Southerly winds return along with warmer conditions, with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70 over the SW 1/4 of the CWA.
559 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures today across the area due to an upper level ridge over the area.
An approaching weather system will bring breezy winds today and Tuesday along with much cooler temperatures and a chance for light showers across parts of southeast Arizona late Monday night into Tuesday. The sky was clear across the area this morning under weak ridging in advance of potent Pacific storm impacting the west coast. Highs today will be at or a few degrees warmer than yesterday. By late this afternoon the approaching cold front will approximately be from SLC-LAS-SAN. The above cold front and the upper level trof will sweep across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning bringing a slight chance of light showers and a chance of mountain rain and high elevations rain and snow showers. Much colder air will be across the area in the wake of cold front passage.
Otherwise, main aviation concern will be expansive MVFR CIGS that will spread in behind the cold front later this evening and overnight. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 65 46 68 55 / 10 0 0 0 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 60 42 66 52 / 10 10 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 48 60 42 66 51 / 10 0 0 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 56 38 64 47 / 20 10 0 0 20.
Areas of low level wind shear will likely develop late tonight at KFMN, KGUP and KLVS as strong winds develop with a potent upper level trough moving in. Warm and breezy weather today will give way to windy and cooler weather Tuesday. A potent cold front will also bring shower and mountain snow showers to the northwest third or so of the state Tuesday morning.
146 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Aviation - Rain tapers off this evening then another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Steady rain across our area is now associated with the low pressure center itself, as it is now traveling across northern Indiana. Rain should taper off this evening as the low moves east and drying and subsidence on the back side of the low moves in.
Rain has been decreasing from west to east, but an unstable environment will develop along a cold front through the evening, so additional showers and lowering snow levels are expected through tonight. Once the front arrives to Butte this evening, rain will change to snow but the temperature is forecast to be near to just above freezing, so any accumulations should be limited to grassy or elevated surfaces.
320 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Latest surface analysis now places the low pressure center over the central IN/OH border with the cold front bifurcating our CWA. CAA will have to work against insulating low cloud cover, but do expect min temperatures by morning to drop into the low to mid 40s. Winds should stay light across most of the area with the slower retreat of the high, so could see some patchy frost early Wed morning in the typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region and in southern Indiana. Upper ridging will maintain tranquil fall weather through the day, with clouds on the increase as a stout upper low digs into Oklahoma. Upper low closes off and makes its way slowly across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, finally getting into the Appalachians by Sat morning.
247 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a strong 500 mb closed low off the Pacific NW coast in an embedded trough, a closed low over sern Iowa and a trough across eastern Canada and a ridge across Hudson Bay. The closed 500 mb low over sern Iowa will move east and combine with the trough over eastern Canada and form a deep trough over the lower Great Lakes by 12z Tue. Beginning Tuesday night, Upper Michigan should find itself under the influence of a building mid-level ridge. At the surface, high pressure over eastern Hudson Bay will keep the region under light easterly to southeasterly flow, so expecting a calm and quiet night.
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 It will be a quiet start to the evening as low-amplitude upper level ridging will just begin shifting to the east of the forecast area. That will be quickly followed by height falls ahead of an upper level trough moving across the Great Basin and 4-Corners region.
The second half of the week will be dry and warm as high pressure builds over the west. Ridge starts to build over the region tomorrow with some light warm air advection precipitation north of I-80.
Current surface analysis depicts high pressure to the northeast centered over northern Ontario, with low pressure to the northwest centered over central Alberta. Through the afternoon and overnight tonight, the region of greatest pressure falls, and thus strongest winds, will slowly advance eastward across the state as a deep western CONUS upper trough approaches the region. Cloud cover will be on the increase again tonight as the aforementioned upper trough approaches the region. Precipitation chances will peak across the west during the afternoon hours tomorrow and spread east through the evening and early overnight hours as the cold front associated with the upper trough moves through the area.
1222 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures today across the area due to an upper level ridge over the area.
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A backdoor cold front moving through wrn Nebraska this morning is slowing up. The models are in excellent agreement bringing a strong Pacific cold front into wrn Nebraska around 21z Tuesday afternoon. The Pacific cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Tuesday evening.
1248 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. A line of showers will cross the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers will continue overnight as the associated upper trough begins to transition over the region. Scattered showers and much cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday before the upper low exits to the east and upper ridging begins to build in from the west.
Scattered clouds at 3,000 feet for most, the far western edges of the CWA have been socked under a deck at 1,400 feet along a stalled out back-door cold front. Regardless of how sunny Tuesday's skies get mid-day, the clouds will win out with the approach of a trough / PV anomaly currently producing showers over southern California. The low deepens and cuts off over the course of Tuesday night and will produce widespread rainfall once again.
147 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Cold front currently moving across the mid-state will sweep out the remaining isolated showers across our east, and conclude our pcpn for this round, although some drizzle possible northeast this evening. Trailing upper trough will swing across this evening and a fairly high amplitude upper ridge will take its place on Tuesday.
Low pressure near Lafayette, Indiana continues to track slowly off to the east this morning. Gusty N/NW winds have developed on the back side of the low, with latest obs showing peak gusts of 30-35mph along/west of I-55. Elsewhere, skies will become clear ahead of an amplified ridge of high pressure.
Deep western CONUS upper trough will begin to cross the Rockies today, shifting the lee side trough east and bringing warm conds to much of the FA. Deep western upper trough will shift east, with the northern edge of this system supporting a good chance for showers Tue into Wed, along with a period of breezy NW winds, as the associated cold front advects into the region Tue morning. Warm thermal profiles will support all rain with this system, except perhaps the highest portions of the Black Hills where some snow may mix in later Tues afternoon and evening. This will support slight cooler but still mild temps Thur along with breezy NW winds.
As clouds scatter out tonight, overnight lows will dip into the low 30s. A sharp upper ridge will spread over the Midwest tomorrow with strong subsidence streaming into central Indiana.
329 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Pre-frontal trough is noted on the radar this afternoon across NW GA. The trough will continue to push south and east, but should remain weak. High pressure will build in from the west overnight and into tomorrow. The gradient will tighten a bit as high pressure builds in from the west and a coastal low moves up the eastern seaboard.
314 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 We have seen gradual clearing from the south today as low pressure over the over IN moves off to the east. A north-south oriented ridge of high pressure will move through the region tonight and shift off to the east Tuesday.
Expect wind to be the primary threat, but with cooler temperatures and lower freezing level there could still be some hail potential.
A weak cold front moves southeast across the Southeast in response this afternoon into this evening, then south of the northern Gulf coast tonight. A cooler, drier airmass moves south across the forecast area behind the front, with above seasonal temepratures today in the 80-85 degree range seeing a downward trend for Tuesday, with temperatures expected to top out in the low 70s north of Highway 84 to upper 70s along the coast. A weak cold front moving southeast across the forecast area this afternoon will bring drops in CIGS to low end MVFR with local IFR.
224 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A deep trough down the West Coast has allowed an atmospheric river to develop along its southern edge. Clouds will increase though tonight as the trough shifts eastward. Low pressure will develop Tuesday afternoon over northeast Colorado. A high pressure ridge oriented north to south will slide east to the western Great Lakes and Mid South. Farther east closer to the ridge, winds will be quite a bit more subdued, although some gusts are possible later in the day into WI.
Ensemble guidance points some ridging across the Western States, so expect a dry forecast without a lot of temperature changes in the extended.
314 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Dry and mild conditions are expected again tomorrow as a ridge shifts out of the Plains and across the Mississippi River Valley.
Look for the low cloudiness to persist for all taf areas through much of tonight.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: As the mid-level low that brought us yesterday's weather continues to push east over the Ohio Valley today, high pressure conditions return over the area. Some gusty winds south and east will continue to subside this afternoon with quiet conditions in store through the daytime hours Tuesday as mid-level ridging moves into and across the area Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near-normal with lows in the low to mid 30s and highs in the 50s.
We did see a break briefly this afternoon, but recently some showers have begun to spring up in the vicinity of the lower Keys. However, a mid level ridge will be nosing in from the west and moisture will be quickly exiting to the east. Otherwise, drier air will be filtering in as the ridge moves across the area through midweek.
Other models indicate insufficient moisture for the clouds, which would of course result in a warmer, sunnier day.
1126 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Update - Rain tapers off this evening then another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Steady rain across our area is now associated with the low pressure center itself, as it is now traveling across northern Indiana. Rain should taper off this evening as the low moves east and drying and subsidence on the back side of the low moves in.
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Latest surface map shows the low pressure system over IN/OH with the center of high pressure sitting over Ontario nosing south across the Upper Midwest, all the way down into east TX. This area of high pressure will continue to slide eastward across our region during the rest of today and into tonight. With the clearing that will eventually take place, most the region will be reaching down into the lower 40s for lows tonight, with a few locations possibly hitting 38 or 39.
/Issued 1042 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021/ Cold front is currently situated across central Mississippi. A pre-frontal trough, accompanied by a line of showers, continues to move east across central AL. This will push a cold front into northwest GA by early afternoon. A drier and cooler air mass will spread over the forecast area tonight into Tuesday.
306 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Areas of showers will continue into tonight as a cold front moves east of the area. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through mid week.
219 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the Upper Midwest tonight into Tuesday with providing a period of quiet weather. A few models hint at patchy low clouds/fog impacting areas east of the Mississippi River Tuesday morning within weak low-level easterly flow near the ridge axis, but soundings show only a very shallow moist layer, so won't include in the forecast at this point. Not much change in thermal profiles is expected for Tuesday, so highs again should reach the 50s for most locations, possibly near 60 in a few warmer valley locations. Winds will begin to increase by afternoon, especially west of the Mississippi River, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten in response to developing low pressure across the high plains.
241 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 An upper level trough was over the OH Valley region with upper level ridging over the Plains this afternoon. The low level cloud deck over our area will break up and clear out tonight. Warmer high temperatures can be expected on Tuesday with the upper level ridge moving eastward into the central US, along with plenty of sun. Looking at the latest CAMs, precipitation associated with an approaching deep upper level trough moving into the Plains should remain just west of our forecast area Tuesday night, although there will be increasing cloudiness.
Temperatures will bottom out on Tuesday before improving through the week as ridging and dry conditions returns to the Desert Southwest. Unfortunately, by the time this band pushes through the lower deserts it will have lost a lot of its punch. Some snow could fall on the higher passes, but much of the precipitation is expected to be over by the time the snow levels drop. The higher elevation of Clark and Mohave will likely see precipitation totals greater than 0. Winds will be the other big story with strong winds expected for the remainder of the afternoon across southeast California and southern Nevada, Most areas will see southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph with some of the higher elevations seeing wind gusts between 50-60 mph.
745 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms expected this evening ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. Convective line associated with a cold front is just advancing into the CWA near ZZV at this time. While a very brief tornado cannot be totally ruled out, hodograph trends show that while there is some decent directional shear in the low levels, the raw wind speeds remain on the weak side overall, minimizing the threat of strong, sustained rotation. Shower chances will then continue through the night as upper troughing lingers over the region. Scattered showers and much cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday before the upper low exits to the east and upper ridging begins to build in from the west.
This activity will continue to shift gradually southward through the evening and overnight hours, with the highest precipitation chances over the SW coast and adjacent Gulf waters. Short Term (Tuesday): Tuesday will be drier than previous days as a ridge begins to develop and bring in some drier mid-level air.
621 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 An upper level trough was over the OH Valley region with upper level ridging over the Plains this afternoon. The low level cloud deck over our area will break up and clear out tonight. Warmer high temperatures can be expected on Tuesday with the upper level ridge moving eastward into the central US, along with plenty of sun. Looking at the latest CAMs, precipitation associated with an approaching deep upper level trough moving into the Plains should remain just west of our forecast area Tuesday night, although there will be increasing cloudiness.
this should be enough for temperatures to bottom out in the lower to middle 40s. As clouds scatter out tonight, overnight lows will dip into the low 30s. A sharp upper ridge will spread over the Midwest tomorrow with strong subsidence streaming into central Indiana.
Latest surface map shows the low pressure system over IN/OH with the center of high pressure sitting over Ontario nosing south across the Upper Midwest, all the way down into east TX. This area of high pressure will continue to slide eastward across our region during the rest of today and into tonight. With the clearing that will eventually take place, most the region will be reaching down into the lower 40s for lows tonight, with a few locations possibly hitting 38 or 39.
An approaching weather system will bring breezy winds today and Tuesday along with much cooler temperatures and a chance for light showers across parts of southeast Arizona late Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front and the upper level trof will sweep across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning bringing a slight chance of light showers and a chance of mountain rain and high elevations rain and snow showers. Not everyone will see rain and QPF totals will be rather light, mostly below a tenth of an inch with slushy snow amounts on the highest mountain peak mostly less than a inch. Much colder air will be across the area in the wake of cold front passage.
Most of the early evening convection has now dissipated with the loss of daytime heating, and upper-trough lifting away from the area. Otherwise, expecting a mostly dry night for east-central FL as the leading edge of a cold front reaches Lake/Volusia counties around sunrise. Overnight lows settle mostly in the low 70s. Models continue to indicate the potential for low stratus developing late tonight as a cold front approaches the area by sunrise Tuesday. The pressure gradient will increase tonight in response to a strengthening area of low pressure along the Carolina coastline.
Steady rain will will ending west to east tonight, although some lingering light rain or snow could fall over the higher terrain.
Latest surface analysis now places the low pressure center over the central IN/OH border with the cold front bifurcating our CWA. CAA will have to work against insulating low cloud cover, but do expect min temperatures by morning to drop into the low to mid 40s. Winds should stay light across most of the area with the slower retreat of the high, so could see some patchy frost early Wed morning in the typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region and in southern Indiana. Upper ridging will maintain tranquil fall weather through the day, with clouds on the increase as a stout upper low digs into Oklahoma. Upper low closes off and makes its way slowly across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, finally getting into the Appalachians by Sat morning.
906 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 A cold frontal passage and a crossing upper trough will continue to bring rain shower chances into Tuesday.
609 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the Upper Midwest tonight into Tuesday with providing a period of quiet weather. A few models hint at patchy low clouds/fog impacting areas east of the Mississippi River Tuesday morning within weak low-level easterly flow near the ridge axis, but soundings show only a very shallow moist layer, so won't include in the forecast at this point. Not much change in thermal profiles is expected for Tuesday, so highs again should reach the 50s for most locations, possibly near 60 in a few warmer valley locations. Winds will begin to increase by afternoon, especially west of the Mississippi River, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten in response to developing low pressure across the high plains.
A cold front passed during the morning and early afternoon hours.
1001 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Areas of drizzle or light showers will continue overnight as a cold front moves east of the area. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through mid week. Surface front was pushing through far eastern Ohio with a post frontal trof near I-71. This trof was a reflection of the mid/upper level trof -- which is pivoting thru the area. As the surface trof shifts east rain showers will come to an end but a period of drizzle will persist in the low level CAA pattern. In the wake of this sfc trof winds will shift from the west to the north/northwest and gust up to 25/30 mph. Clouds will persist through the night with lows in the lower and mid 40s.
652 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Warmer temperatures will be in store for the region tomorrow, however some low clouds could develop with returning low-level moisture thus hampering full daytime heating.
745 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Areas of showers will continue into tonight as a cold front moves east of the area. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through mid week.
/issued 242 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021/ It will be a quiet start to the evening as low-amplitude upper level ridging will just begin shifting to the east of the forecast area. That will be quickly followed by height falls ahead of an upper level trough moving across the Great Basin and 4-Corners region.
A frontal boundary currently stretched across Central LA is progged to continue sagging S tonight in a back-door fashion, ushering cooler and drier air into the area by TUE morning.
Showers associated with an upper trough have ended in southeast Oregon and are diminishing/shifting eastward with the trough in southwest Idaho this evening. Gusty winds will continue to diminish overnight, but will return to most of southeast Oregon and the higher elevations of southwest Idaho where it will become breezy by Tuesday afternoon.
Cold front currently moving across the mid-state will sweep out the remaining isolated showers across our east, and conclude our pcpn for this round, although some drizzle possible northeast this evening. Trailing upper trough will swing across this evening and a fairly high amplitude upper ridge will take its place on Tuesday.
Breezy and cooler weather on Tuesday, with showers ending over eastern Arizona. Mostly sunny skies continue this afternoon ahead of a trough that is set to move across northern Arizona later tonight through early Tuesday morning. The cold front and precipitation band is forecast to enter western Coconino County after 8 PM, reaching the Flagstaff area around midnight, then into eastern Arizona 3-5 AM. Rainfall amounts over the higher terrain generally 0. 20" for the lower elevations. Tuesday afternoon will be much cooler, in the 40s for the mountains.
640 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms expected this evening ahead of a cold front. Showers will then linger into Tuesday with a crossing upper trough. Convective line associated with a cold front is just advancing into the CWA near ZZV at this time. While a very brief tornado cannot be totally ruled out, hodograph trends show that while there is some decent directional shear in the low levels, the raw wind speeds remain on the weak side overall, minimizing the threat of strong, sustained rotation. Shower chances will then continue through the night as upper troughing lingers over the region. Scattered showers and much cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday before the upper low exits to the east and upper ridging begins to build in from the west.