Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the upper trough continues to progress eastwards towards Ohio, backing winds will focus the light rain towards central and north-central for the afternoon and evening hours. The areas with longest stretch of showers will be for north- central Wisconsin where the combination of the RRJ of a jet plus surface flow over Lake Superior could keep a few showers in place into Friday morning; and east-central Wisconsin for a few wrap around showers as the low pressure system lingers in the region early on Friday.
A strong closed upper low is located across the Mid-South this evening. Winds will remain breezy as well, though the higher gusts we saw earlier today should diminish some overnight.
844 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Low pressure spins over the Missouri Bootheel this evening, with an occluded front wrapping southeast through southern IL and south- central KY. Vertically stacked low pressure system is just pulling eastward out of the Ozarks, with a warm conveyor belt ahead of it bringing a couple bands of light to moderate rain showers up through central and eastern Kentucky, and on into southern Indiana.
509 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE Strengthening high pressure over NM will bring VFR to all terminals the next 24 hrs with light winds and SKC.
502 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Northwest flow persist over the northern plains, between the exiting trough and the western CONUS ridge. Southwesterly flow and warm air advection beneath the upper ridge will result in a mild, dry Friday.
Drier weather returns for the weekend with cooler temperatures. Drier air will move in behind a cold front Friday afternoon over Central Washington and then across Eastern WA/N Idaho by late afternoon into the evening. As the drier air moves in expect much cooler overnight lows Friday night, with readings on average 15-25 degrees cooler compared to tonight. Drier air will move in behind a cold front Friday afternoon into the evening bringing clearing skies.
Upper low will drag slowly into the middle TN valley by Friday bringing cold-air advection through the next 24 hours. The deepest cold air advection will begin to occur later tonight and into Friday as low pulls off to the east wrapping cooler air onto the back side of it. Dropped MAX-T's down into the lower 60s north of the I-10/12 corridors for Friday as model soundings showing dewpoints depressions near zero around 850 MB.
A vertically stacked low pressure system was located over southern Missouri and will make its way to the east over the next 24 hours. A rather tight surface pressure gradient was producing gusty northerly winds as the region was on the western side of the low for the most part. By Friday afternoon, the low will have moved east of the area with some lingering light shower tapering off through the day.
747 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Upper ridge is building over the northern Rockies with some clouds coming over the ridge, which will reach the forecast area tonight. Lee trof is deepening over MT with winds beginning to shift to the southwest in northeastern WY, bringing warm air advection for mild temperatures Friday. Friday Through Thursday Southwesterly flow and warm air advection beneath the upper ridge will result in a mild, dry Friday.
IFR/MVFR conditions along with scattered rain showers and breezy/gusty winds will remain common tonight and into Friday as the backside of the upper low continues push off to the east. conditions are expected to lift back to VFR by mid/late morning with cloud cover scattering out during the afternoon hours behind the exiting upper low. /Issued 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/ Gusty conditions persist this afternoon as strong northwesterly winds wrap around the vertically-stacked cyclone currently across southwestern MO. Milder weather is forecast for the weekend as mid-level heights rise in the wake of the exiting cyclone.
520 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Dry and cool across much of the region as an upper level ridge builds into the Western CONUS. Most locations across the Eastern CONUS sit under cloud cover with precipitation as a longwave trough continues to be positioned over the MO/AR border. 700mb flow will continue to weaken headed into this evening as the trough to the east continues to propagate away from the area.
Strong winds will decrease after sunset this evening and become light by Friday morning as the upper ridge extends east of the Rockies and across the High Plains tonight and Friday with an area of high pressure at the surface. With light winds expected in the high under clear skies, there is a potential for a portion of the region to see areas of frost and a light freeze as temperatures drop to around freezing.
907 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A stacked cold core low pressure system was situated over Ozarks; it's surface reflection over the SE Missouri, and upper reflection more over NE Arkansas. Rather low barometric pressures associated with the low, were resulting in "corrected" sea level pressures of around 29. Shorter term model output (mainly the HRRR/RAP) has the upper low heading to the ESE, with it moving over NW Alabama around daybreak Friday, then nearing Chattanooga in the early afternoon.
829 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 An upper level trough will swing through the region Friday and into the weekend supporting a slight chance of showers despite drier air. Overnight lows will be in the fifties with the lowest readings expected in locations that see the most clearing.
1010 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers is what remains after the passage of a squall line earlier today associated with a descending cold front. This front is expected to move across the area tonight and temperatures will drop to the lower 60s across the northern Lake/Volusia and mid/upper 60s southward.
751 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Showers developing ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest will overspread the region tonight through Friday.
Vertically stacked low pressure system is just pulling eastward out of the Ozarks, with a warm conveyor belt ahead of it bringing a couple bands of light to moderate rain showers up through central and eastern Kentucky, and on into southern Indiana.
/issued 345 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/ Cloudy, cool, and rainy conditions will continue across the Mid South over the next day or so as an upper low slowly moves across the eastern United States.
652 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Largely vertically stacked low pressure over southern MO continues to provide for increased cloud cover east of I-29 although much of the rain has moved east of our coverage area.
The short term forecast is highlighted by above average temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front that will move through the forecast area this weekend.
Expect cloud cover and seasonably mild temperatures to pass over the region this evening ahead of a strong cold front tomorrow evening. With the Friday cold front, expect much colder temperatures for this weekend and the potential for the first lower elevation snowfall.
743 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A large cutoff upper level low moving across the central Mississippi Valley today has induced an area of broad lift and moisture transport across the area. High pressure building to the west on Friday will help to shove this system out of the area while also serving to tighten the pressure gradient across the area along with increasing subsidence. Weak thermal ridging will keep temperatures near seasonal normals for the weekend, however this will not last.
Rest of forecast on track though with lows falling into the lower to mid 60s north, and mid 60s inland to mid 70s coastal central, and generally 70-75 south.
A trough associated with this low will move east across area early this morning, with a line of showers associated ahead of it. A series of troughs will pivot east southeast across area through Tonight, the strongest of which will pass through overnight Tonight. With these troughs moving through the chance for showers will continue through Tonight. Noticeably cooler air will advect into region Today, and remain this period. Highs Saturday will trend a little cooler than Today.
Drier weather returns for the weekend with cooler temperatures. The expectation is cold pool instability behind a cold front passage tomorrow may allow for a few weak short lived low topped thunderstorms. Drier air will move in behind a cold front Friday afternoon into the evening bringing clearing skies.
1124 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Dry and cool across much of the region as an upper level ridge builds into the Western CONUS. Most locations across the Eastern CONUS sit under cloud cover with precipitation as a longwave trough continues to be positioned over the MO/AR border. 700mb flow will continue to weaken headed into this evening as the trough to the east continues to propagate away from the area. Saturday, high clouds will start to build into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. These clouds will keep our temperatures a few degrees cooler than Friday.
A stacked cold core low pressure system was situated over Ozarks; it's surface reflection over the SE Missouri, and upper reflection more over NE Arkansas. Rather low barometric pressures associated with the low, were resulting in "corrected" sea level pressures of around 29. Shorter term model output (mainly the HRRR/RAP) has the upper low heading to the ESE, with it moving over NW Alabama around daybreak Friday, then nearing Chattanooga in the early afternoon. The coldest pocket of air at 8h and low levels will rotate southeast into AL and GA Friday morning, with warmer air advecting in from the northwest during the afternoon. However, surface air temperatures will still only climb into the middle to upper 50s (and upper 40s to around 50 atop the highest portions of the Cumberland Plateau).
Given the forecast area is mainly on the western flank of the low, think the chances of thunder will be low enough to remove from today's forecast.
429 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Vertically-stacked/closed low pressure system currently centered around the TN/MS/AL border will continue to drift east through the day. A rather raw day expected across much of the area today with the approaching low pressure system. Higher-res models showing an upr lvl wave/impulse diving down the backside of the trough on Saturday which should support scattered showers. 83 In the wake of the short term upper low, zonal flow sets up over the southern US.
For Friday a ridge aloft will expand/build across the Northern Plains, with milder temperatures expected, especially over the western CWA where H850 temps will be pushing +10C or greater. The ridge will be short-lived since energy coming ashore western Canada will dig southeast toward the NC CONUS. This will be ushered in by a cold frontal passage centered on Saturday, the timing of which will ultimately dictate temperature trends for any given location on that day.
Today through Saturday night Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning as the area will once again will have to deal with the slow moving upper low that has kept unsettled weather in place for the the past few days. Latest surface analysis/satellite imagery shows the upper low has moved into far western TN with surface reflection over the Missouri boot heel. Highs today will be similar to the past few days and will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s or about 10 degrees below seasonal averages. Short term models indicate that scattered showers will continue through the day with the northern and eastern parts of the state favored for the highest rainfall amounts. Upper low departs on Saturday and upper ridging will build over the central plains.
Nearly stacked low pressure system was over southern Missouri early this afternoon continues to move east. It will be cooler Friday behind the low as NNW winds develop. A 500 mb longwave trough will become established across eastern North America. On Saturday, our current slow-moving low pressure system will finally weaken and lift northeast across the central Appalachians.
The lingering cloud cover is eventually expected to clear out overnight, with light winds allowing temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s. Brace for impact Saturday night, winds will shift from southerly to northwesterly as a cold front passes through and temperatures will dip into the 30s.
213 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Large low pressure system centered over the Lower-Mississippi Valley will slide east across TN thru the day today.
Vertically stacked low pressure system is just pulling eastward out of the Ozarks, with a warm conveyor belt ahead of it bringing a couple bands of light to moderate rain showers up through central and eastern Kentucky, and on into southern Indiana. The aforementioned nearly vertically stacked low pressure system will trudge along to the east Saturday.
This low will be the main weather driver for the short term forecast period which features cloudy and cool conditions. The low will slowly move east through the Tennessee Valley today and into the Southern Appalachians tonight. QPF amounts will be on the lower side, generally around a couple tenths of an inch. Interestingly, as the mid level low moves over the Southern Appalachians snow levels look to fall just enough that a mix of rain and snow is certainly possible in the highest elevations above 5,000 feet tonight.
Low level wind shear remains a concern through sunrise, with the higher winds mixing down by mid morning and bringing gusty northwest winds through much of the day.
Short term discussion: Vertically stacked low pressure system which has brought windy conditions and scattered showers to the area for the past day and a half will continue to slowly shift east of the area today. Winds will remain gusty on the back side of the low with a tight pressure gradient continuing over the area through the day. Several waves of energy will continue to rotate around the upper low and bring some lift to the area and we'll continue to chances of rain showers and drizzle through the day. Temperatures today will be hampered by the cloud cover and rain, with readings in the low to mid 50s. The sky is expected to remain mostly cloudy in all but the far western CWA which will limit the temperature drops for most of the area to the low to mid 40s.
1042 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Largely vertically stacked low pressure over southern MO continues to provide for increased cloud cover east of I-29 although much of the rain has moved east of our coverage area. Saturday will feature the approach of a fairly stout cold front, although limited moisture should keep its passage dry.
Wrap around moisture along with ample forcing with this strong system has allowed for light rain showers to overspread the area and this is expected to continue most of the day, limiting any daytime heating that could occur even as the cooler air mass is advected behind the low pressure system. Because of the proximity of the low, winds will be on the gustier side, but shouldn't reach a limit to need a wind advisory. The low pressure system slowly lifts north and east towards Eastern TN this evening through the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
Tonight, ridging will build across the U. This will lead to the high-level overcast dissipating. Lows will be tricky, as temps could fall off nicely in any areas where the low- level cloud cover does scatter out since winds will be light or calm beneath the ridge. In most areas, however, where the low clouds persist through the night, went with the warmer guidance which gives lows in the low to mid 40s.
The upper low will continue to move to the east, and the pressure gradient will relax some later this afternoon. We would expect cooler temperatures with clear skies and generally light winds most areas; however, this surface flow will help moderate temperatures some near the New Mexico border. GKendrick Upper level high pressure across the southwestern U.
300 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A large upper level low spinning across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley region early this morning will will translate slowly east today and tonight with ridging attempting to work in from the north and west by tonight. As the low pulls away, drying in the mid-levels from the west will put an end to any lingering showers/drizzle this morning. This suggests clouds may be quite stubborn and with the ridge axis holding just to the northwest tonight, widespread clearing may be too optimistic for much of the area.
A powerful, bowling ball of an upper level low cuts off over the southeastern U. With winds relaxing aloft and the pressure gradient relaxing some Friday, the high wind warning drops to a wind advisory for frequent gusts to 40mph late Friday morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler relative to what we have seen, with overnight lows tonight in the lower 50's. Saturday may feature a slight rebound in temperatures with highs generally in the lower to middle 60's.
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area this morning will move slowly eastward into the Tennessee Valley area today. As high pressure settles southward across the area tonight, clear skies and light winds will promote areas of frost across much of the area and a frost advisory will be hoisted.
311 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Early this morning the upper low was centered over the Missouri Bootheel while an upstream ridge was located over the western states. Light rain will continue over east central Kansas this morning before exiting by early afternoon as the upper low moves off to the east. Winds will gradually decrease later this afternoon, then be replaced by a high pressure ridge tonight. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 30s with the coldest readings along the Nebraska border.
The massive upper level low will be slowly moving across the Tennessee Valley Region today, so gusty northwest winds will skirt only our far eastern counties this afternoon. As the low moves out, a weak ridge will build up over the region with highs this afternoon expected to be mainly in the mid 70s. Saturday morning will be mostly in the low to mid 40s before we quickly warm up in the afternoon.
/issued 345 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/ Cloudy, cool, and rainy conditions will continue across the Mid South over the next day or so as an upper low slowly moves across the eastern United States. Behind the exiting system high pressure will build in across the Mid-South.
The upper level low will drift over the area this afternoon and tonight before lifting up into the northeast US Saturday into Saturday night. With the upper level low spinning in the vicinity of eastern KY today and tomorrow, expect scattered rain showers to continue on and off both days. Expect mostly cloudy skies early today with mainly mid and upper level clouds, becoming overcast with lower stratus moving in as the upper level low moves over the area. Slightly cooler temps on Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s across the entire forecast area. We begin the extended Saturday with the large upper level low just starting to move to the east of our area and heading towards New England, leaving our area in northwest flow.
1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A large cutoff upper level low moving across the central Mississippi Valley today has induced an area of broad lift and moisture transport across the area. High pressure building to the west on Friday will help to shove this system out of the area while also serving to tighten the pressure gradient across the area along with increasing subsidence. Weak thermal ridging will keep temperatures near seasonal normals for the weekend, however this will not last.
Temperatures will fall below freezing in our northwest, but we are done issuing frost/freeze headlines across these northwest zones for the season. Temperatures will likely remain just above freezing tonight across the center and southeastern portions of the forecast area due to the winds staying up enough to keep things a bit mixed, but it will be close to 32F in some areas. The cold front will probably come through our northwestern zones Saturday afternoon resulting in gusty afternoon winds and possibly falling afternoon temperatures. Most places should still reach 60 or better the next 2 days before the cold front comes through Saturday afternoon.
307 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Dry and mild conditions will continue through Saturday, with upper ridge over the northern Plains today, shifting southeast as a sharp mid-upper wave and associated cold front push into the region on Saturday. Residual low level moisture from recent rains and the aforementioned stratus could result in shallow fog across this area late tonight into early Saturday, though HREF probabilities of visibility below 2SM is on the low side, so do not expect any significant issues. Did also hedge toward the cooler side of guidance in the area with the lightest winds, with favorable radiational cooling conditions. This should yield highs upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front, but strong post-frontal cold advection works into our western counties by 18Z.
249 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Closed upper low continues to spin over the region early this morning, and this low will take at least into Saturday night before exiting completely.
A stout upper-level trough has parked over the eastern half of the U. Expect for this low pressure to drift over our area tomorrow and finally begin to move to our east on Saturday. Highs will be on the cooler side to end the week with most of the area struggling to make it out of the 50s through Saturday.
401 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Showers will continue today ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest. The threat for showers continues Saturday when the low tracks to Western Pennsylvania.
1127 PM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge over NM next 18-24 hrs. Weak sfc lee trough developing aft 15Z.
129 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: Deep upper low parked over the region resulting in a lot of stratus. A strong closed upper low is located across the Mid-South this evening. Winds will remain breezy as well, though the higher gusts we saw earlier today should diminish some overnight. /28/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Saturday: A strong closed low moving east across the southeast CONUS will maintain cyclonic flow over the forecast area for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Expect considerable cold advection stratus and areas of light rain and drizzle as minor perturbations/ascent rotate around the upper low. We should see cloud cover diminish Saturday as the the upper low pulls away and ridging takes place over the area.
A vertically stacked low pressure system was located over southern Missouri and will make its way to the east over the next 24 hours. A rather tight surface pressure gradient was producing gusty northerly winds as the region was on the western side of the low for the most part. By Friday afternoon, the low will have moved east of the area with some lingering light shower tapering off through the day. Overnight lows Friday night will be in the low to mid 40s warming into the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday as some upper ridging builds into the area. The ridging will allow for a nice dry and sunny day for Saturday.
320 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 An upper level trough will affect much of the Eastern Seaboard today and into the weekend with temperatures remaining slightly below normal.
The main impact from this low pressure system continues to be offshore where the strong winds just above the surface in the lower 1-3k feet are really mixing down and producing the gale conditions.
(Today and tonight) Large upper low over mid-MS valley will continue to move very slowly eastward today.
Readings in the low to mid 40s will be common, with mid and upper 30s possible in the usual low lying cold spots.
An area of low pressure will gradually move east through the next 24 hours bringing periods of rain showers and low cloud decks. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 50 59 50 64 / 90 70 80 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 49 58 49 62 / 70 60 80 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 49 57 50 62 / 80 60 80 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 47 57 48 59 / 80 70 70 50 10.