Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The GFS has now come into line with the Euro and UK models with the flatter/weaker upper trough and thus is also now depicting a weaker cold front passage through the local area. The operational GFS is still several degrees cooler than other guidance and it remains on the high side of its ensemble members. The weaker/flatter upper trough also has significant implications for the forecast track of Hurricane Matthew as the trough is now expected to bypass the storm without picking it up. Indications are that Matthew will then get trapped off the east coast as upper ridging builds back over the western Atlantic. A tightened pressure gradient will remain in place across the coastal waters through the weekend as a broad ridge of high pressure across the Southeastern United States interacts with Hurricane Matthew over the western Atlantic.
Upper level trough was over the western Great Lakes. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over northern ALTA/SASK with an east-west jet streak on the south side of upper low. Trough will move across northern MAN this afternoon. Upper trough will send a cold front into the northern REd River Valley by Tue afternoon. Low level ridging moves out of SASK and into the area Tue night and should push precip south and east of the area for Wed. However a weak low pressure system will move across SD Wed and may produce rain in the far southern Valley Wed.
The main upper high pressure ridge has moved west and centered over the southern Rockies, while weaker upper ridging was to the east of AR. This has set up a northwest upper flow and weak low pressure troughing over the region. Moisture levels remain up over AR with surface dew point temperatures in the lower 70s. Today Through Tuesday Night The upper pattern holds with a northwest flow and weak upper low pressure troughing into the region. Forecast trends this way with the highest pop over western to lowest in the east.
Today will feature highs again ranging from the low to mid 90's with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity.
Very weak shear, a high freezing level, and the post-surface-frontal boundary layer will keep the severe weather chances low; however, storms do appear fairly outflow dominant, and will need to make sure strong cores do not translate gusty winds to the surface during their collapse. The cold front which sunk through the area last evening will remain south of the forecast area and eventually wash out; however, surface flow will gradually return to the southeast as high pressure continues its southeastward drift through midweek.
630 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 The departing short wave trof will result in large scale subsidence across the entire region today, with high pressure in control at the surface. The ridge axis will move off to the south tonight and Tuesday, allowing low level westerly flow to develop in the 925-850 mb layer. This will once again result in an increasing warm/moist advection pattern by 06z tonight, and sufficient moisture/instability/lift should be present by the midnight to 3 am time frame to result in showers and thunderstorms slowly developing along the nose of the 925-850 mb thermal ridge that will slowly build into northwest Minnesota tonight on the northwest periphery of the departing ridge axis.
719 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region tonight, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Cold front has exited northern MI to the south and east. Dew points in the low/mid 60s are still seen well back into WI and western upper MI. cold front will move to the eastern lakes today. By late in the day, high pressure over Iowa will extend a ridge axis toward northern MI. Partly sunny skies will work for most of the day north of the bridge, with clearing late in the afternoon. high pressure over Iowa/northern IL will continue to provide deep dry air to the region. Warmer again Tue-Wed then more seasonable with chances for t-storms.
Temps today in the lower to mid 90's west of the plateau with heat indicies 100 to 103 west of the plateau with scattered thunderstorms. Upper ridge that has been over our area for the last several days has finally retrograded allowing for a trough to develop over the eastern U. I can see a series of disturbances in the models that will be working subtly through the trough that should provide enough lift especially when conbined with afternoon heating along with with the proximity of the frontal boundary to keep an ongoing chance for thunderstorms over the next several days.
A deep se flow is over the area today with upper low drifting west over the western Gulf and high pressure centered to the ne. Even warmer temperatures aloft today(500 temp -4C) will result in low Cape values and mostly weak convection outside of late day mergers.
A warm up remains on track beginning Tuesday as high pressure strengthens over the area, with cooling once again in the forecast this coming weekend as a weak low pressure disturbance moves into the Pacific Northwest. The current satellite water vapour image is showing an area of high pressure positioned over the Eastern Pacific and moisture rotating into and around the Desert Southwest as the Four Corners high begins to set up. Both models indicate a weak trough of low pressure passing over the area today which has helped the marine layer to deepen slightly this morning.
Pressure trough mentioned in previous updated will move southeast today. Early-morning surface observations show a pressure trough/weak wind shift taking shape over far eastern MT and western ND. Overall expect plenty of sunshine and warmer air to overspread western and central ND. It is best reflected in the 700mb height fields and in the 850mb isotherms, with a thermal trough/cooler pocket, along with a surface and boundary layer wind shift noted in the RAP13 and GFS. This low level convergence area along with increasing moisture advection per 850mb southerly winds will spawn increasing chances for shower/thunderstorm development across portions of southern ND tonight.
The upper ridge, currently centered over northern New Mexico, will continue to shift off to the west this week. This will allow an inverted trough to move east along the Gulf Coast and influence our weather the next several days. The inverted trough will move into Texas early Tuesday bringing with it a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures through the end of the week. Some models show the trough stalling over Texas into the weekend as it becomes stuck in between two mid level ridges.
High pressure will bring a slow warming trend this week with coastal clouds nights and mornings.
With cloud cover and an approaching cold front, lowered temps in northern parts of Oklahoma just a tad. Some contribution is still possible from upper low that has been talked about the last couple of days moving out of Arkansas, but models are not as aggressive with precip associated with this low across Oklahoma.
Early-morning surface observations show a pressure trough/weak wind shift taking shape over far eastern MT and western ND. Overall expect plenty of sunshine and warmer air to overspread western and central ND. It is best reflected in the 700mb height fields and in the 850mb isotherms, with a thermal trough/cooler pocket, along with a surface and boundary layer wind shift noted in the RAP13 and GFS. This low level convergence area along with increasing moisture advection per 850mb southerly winds will spawn increasing chances for shower/thunderstorm development across portions of southern ND tonight.
420 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures. These conditions will persist over the region for most of the coming week as the ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the area.
Hot and dry conditions with mainly light late day breezes are expected for the next several days as strong high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
1206 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region tonight, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
A warm up remains on track beginning Tuesday as high pressure strengthens over the area, with cooling once again in the forecast this coming weekend as a weak low pressure disturbance moves into the Pacific Northwest. With this in place, do expect temperatures this afternoon to be a few degrees cooler, especially for areas that see a later clearing of the low clouds. The current satellite water vapour image is showing an area of high pressure positioned over the Eastern Pacific and moisture rotating into and around the Desert Southwest as the Four Corners high begins to set up. Both models indicate a weak trough of low pressure passing over the area today which has helped the marine layer to deepen slightly this morning.
This as inverted se-nw oriented mid and upper level trof now positioned from the eastern gulf and through the lower Mississippi valley slowly edges west. A weak surface trof over the northwest Gulf will yield light and somewhat variable winds today and into Tuesday. Low pressure aloft will maintain a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms.
929 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region tonight, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Broad upper level ridging covering much of the southern CONUS is currently marked by a TUTT low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which will drift west and away from the area today. A second upper level low farther to the south will follow close behind, moving west across the Florida Straits and Cuba tonight and Tuesday. The surface pattern has not changed significantly in recent days, with the sub- tropical ridge continuing to stretch from the Atlantic across northern Florida. Temperatures will remain near to a couple degrees above normal, with highs in the low 90s, except for some upper 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 74 95 75 / 30 40 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 92 74 / 30 40 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 94 74 92 74 / 30 40 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 70 90 71 / 30 40 50 30.
However, expect things to start getting active within the next hour or so with air temps near or abv convective temp, combined with a rather broad mid/upper trof over the Gulf and ample moisture with precip water values again close to max (2. This as inverted se-nw oriented mid and upper level trof now positioned from the eastern gulf and through the lower Mississippi valley slowly edges west. A weak surface trof over the northwest Gulf will yield light and somewhat variable winds today and into Tuesday. Low pressure aloft will maintain a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms.
The interaction of the MCS with the current pre- frontal trough convection/outflows will suggest minor convection leading into and along the Interstate 64 corridor before 7 am CDT.
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move across the region today. High pressure from the upper midwest will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery and WSR-88D VAD wind profile plot showed a nearly stationary midlevel shear axis over the lower MS River valley.
926 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A slow moving cold front will pass through the area this evening bringing the chance for scattered storms.
619 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 259 AM CDT A cold front bisects the county warning area along a southwest to northeast axis. There are also a few showers in southern Wisconsin associated with an upper low across west central Ontario. The leading edge of the cold front will move southeast of the area later this morning, taking the last of the lingering showers and thunderstorms with it. Behind the front we will welcome in a slightly cooler and less humid air mass, along with at least a few day period of dry weather. âComfortableâ dewpoints in the 60s will make more seasonably warm but certainly more tolerable conditions for mid-summer, as highs top out in the mid to upper 80s, or just a tad above normal, though a bit cooler at the lake with a lake breeze expected.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 74 95 75 / 30 40 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 92 74 / 40 40 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 94 74 92 74 / 40 40 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 70 90 71 / 30 40 50 30.
748 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Today the pattern favors slowly building mid level heights over southeast Georgia and the Carolinas as a weak upper low moves over the Gulf of Mexico while an upper trough pulls away from Canadian Maritimes. Impressive and persistent mid/upper-level ridging extending across the Carolinas and Georgia will remain in place into the second half of the week.
A stronger signal for convection exists for this evening as the upper level ridge to the west moves far enough west to allow mid level moisture to advect into the region.
Temperatures on track to reach 100F in the lower valleys today. Smoke layers from a wildfire in the Lowman area.
As the day progresses, this high will push off to the southeast and allow for southerly winds and warm air advection to move back in. At the surface, a trough will be located over the western Dakotas this afternoon and will be a focus for showers and thunderstorms. This activity is then expected to move into central SD by this evening as the low level jet begins to strengthen. Scattered showers and storms are possible through the overnight as well given the low level jet existence and presence of mid level instability.
1254 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Hydro A high pressure system centered in Iowa will build slowly east today and into Michigan on Tuesday.
Clouds and earlier development of rain on Tuesday makes for a "cooler" day with lower heat indices.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Northeast Montana begins the day under the boundary of a hot desert air-mass to the south and cooler trough air to the north.
With plenty of moisture and instability available in the lower levels, this could be enough to generate a few showers and thunderstorms across mainly eastern areas of the CWA, with the best chances for areas southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line, but can't rule out isolated activity as far west as an Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene line. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
1034 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. None of the high resolution models are spitting out anything meaningful through sunset and with mid- level heights rising through the day this scenario seems plausible. Hot and humid conditions will continue with heat indices ranging 102-106; highest along the lower South Carolina coast where localized pooling of dewpoints will occur behind the resultant.
1039 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A slow moving cold front will pass through the area this evening bringing the chance for scattered storms.
The best opportunity for rainfall will occur over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix, with lesser chances heading west into southeast California. A reduction in convective activity looks likely during this period as ridging aloft strengthens over the region and some drying of the airmass occurs.
There will be a dry northwest breeze across southern WI today with high pressure over the Upper Midwest. Sunshine will allow for temperatures to get into the mid 80s, but dewpoints will only be in the lower 60s this afternoon, so it will feel more comfortable than the past several days. High pressure will dominate the region through Tuesday. A weak 700 mb northwest flow is expected, with a weak 700 mb trough axis moving across southern Wisconsin. Will use the high resolution HRRR experimental winds, that has any lake breeze confined to areas right along the lake north of Milwaukee.
Increased cloud cover and moisture will return late Monday evening as an upper level low approaches from the east. /issued 441 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Elongated high pressure ridging with centers located over the desert Southwest and near the Carolinas is being disrupted by general inverted troughing over the northern Gulf Coast states. An upper level low pressure system off the west coast of Florida will move across the Gulf today.
1210 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A slow moving cold front will pass through the area this evening bringing the chance for scattered storms.
A cold front over the Illinois and northern Missouri will sag southward toward the Ohio River today. Cooler and less humid air is expected to arrive in Central Indiana tonight as High pressure over the northern plains states builds southeast into the Ohio Valley. The High is then expected to push across Indiana through mid week. Surface analysis early this morning shows Low pressure north of the Great Lakes with a cool front extending southwest across Northern Illinois to Northern Missouri. will trend highs toward the cooler side of a blend.
The upper trough exiting the northern and central Rockies onto the Great Plains Tuesday will shift the loosely organized mid-level high pressure system NW of NM.
703 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Aviation A high pressure system centered in Iowa will build slowly east today and into Michigan on Tuesday.
Temperatures today will be a bit cooler given the increased cloud cover and thunderstorm potential, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows tonight into early Tuesday will be in the low 70s. A slightly cooler and rather unsettled stretch of weather appears to be in store for the area through the remainder of the workweek into the weekend.
This transitions a flat ridge over the southern half of the country with progressive flow over the northern half. The Gfs and Canadian were doing the best on the low level thermal field. As a result only made minor adjustments to the high temperatures. Air mass is warmer as southerly winds increase with plenty of sun.
This in part due to the upper low moving westward across the eastern Gulf away from the peninsula. KXMR morning sounding shows much more moist deep layer air than the previous day, but temperatures at 500mb much warmer limiting destabilization and large CAPE values.
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead.
949 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move across the region today. High pressure from the upper midwest will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
An upper level high will be located over the Rockies. This pattern changes slightly through the end of the week with the upper high amplifying across the west with a mean trough from Michigan into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Some contribution is still possible from upper low that has been talked about the last couple of days moving out of Arkansas, but models are not as aggressive with precip associated with this low across Oklahoma.
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland.
Cold front sinks in late today lingering into Tuesday. Cold front approaching northwestern CWA late this afternoon, and have likely POPs developing around 20Z-21Z. Not a whole lot in the way of shear for much of the day, but an increase to 20-30kts bulk shear is expected just ahead of the cold front. Freezing level will be pretty high to get large hail, so it would take a persistent tall storm to produce hail.
100 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move across the region today. High pressure from the upper midwest will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
with currently temperatures running about 5 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
1111 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Latest surface observations show very hot and humid conditions this morning, with temperatures already in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two with wet microbursts this afternoon as lapse rates are a tad more steep than yesterday and mid levels are slightly cooler with 500 mb temperatures around -5C, but nothing widespread is anticipated.
1157 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A slow moving cold front will pass through the area this evening bringing the chance for scattered storms.
This high also was bringing drier air into the region. Dew points were in the lower and mid 60s. Through tonight, the high pressure area will move slowly east southeast into Iowa. This high will keep skies mostly clear.
1112 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Currently - The upper level low that had contributed to disturbed weather yesterday has pushed further westward into the Gulf of Mexico, and a deep layered Atlantic ridge is building westward behind it. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to slowly strengthen to our north resulting in slowly strengthening breezes. Light to gentle east to southeast breezes prevail on Florida Keys waters due to a strengthening ridge to our north.
739 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move across the region today.
A weak upper trough will spread westward into Texas today allowing for an increase in afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A healthy surge of moisture will accompany the trough and with the dominant upper ridge now centered west of the region. although the upper trough may provide enough support for some spotty activity well into the nighttime hours. /ISSUED 418 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ The weather story across North Central Texas this week will be driven by the breakdown of the large ridge over the central and western U.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THE TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS. OVER SE MT FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER LOWS WILL INCREASE BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER HILLS OF SE MT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
756 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 AVIATION A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
1031 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
1027 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FAIR BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.
BUT CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
1255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 HYDRO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A double barrel low pressure system at 500 millibars was situated from eastern Wyoming into western Kansas early this morning. The southern extent of this low was in the process of strengthening and closing off as it tracks east while the northern extent was gradually weakening and filling. Showers and a few thunderstorms were developing across west central and northwest Kansas under the mid level cold pool and area of enhanced upward vertical motion associated with the low. The area of scattered showers will propagate east through this morning with the upper low and should be winding down over central Kansas by midday to early afternoon. Cooler temperatures can be expected today behind a cold front currently moving through the area. Mid level ridging builds into the central High Plains tonight with decreasing clouds across western Kansas.