Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The flow will remain NW thru tomorrow but amplify with the next weak trof diving into MT by 00Z/Sun. Surface: Arctic high pres was Sask/ND with a ridge axis extending S to TX. This high will slowly slide SE across the Dakota's tonight and into the IA tomorrow. but snow has struggled reach the ground due to the low-lvl dry air.
Snow continues to affect all four terminals on the backside of the upper level low.
536 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure continues to build into SE TX this evening. Most inland locations will see freezing overnight temperatures tonight and Saturday night.
/issued 553 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/ High pressure will maintain north to northwest winds between 5 to 10 knots this evening, possibly diminishing to 5 knots around daybreak.
Upper trough axis/850mb thermal across region Saturday night.
/Issued 318 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/ The upper level pattern will remain amplified on Saturday with a ridge across the western U. and a trough in the east.
Upper ridge is building toward the coast which will continue the drying trend.
707 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 After a dry night, a batch of rain will move in Wednesday through Wednesday night as wave of low pressure tracks through the region.
However, with mid-level subsidence occurring beneath an area of high pressure aloft, not expecting much more than scattered coverage. Temps should only dip into the low to mid 70's across the area.
Early afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed center of compact upper low over far northeastern KS, which continued to pull away from the Central Plains. This will be the last cold morning for awhile, as we will be entering a warmer pattern with the upper level flow pattern becoming southwesterly Wednesday. This will foster development of the leeside trough and south-southwest winds will be on the increase as a result, particularly far southwest and west central KS in the afternoon where MSLP gradient will be stronger. This area will also be the first to see downslope momentum, leading to afternoon temperatures topping out in the lower 70s.
720 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
1121 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Fairly decent mid/upper trough currently moving through the area, developing some post frontal showers and thunderstorms across the area. These storms appear to be driven by steep lapse rates - above the low level temperatures inversion - associated with the cold air aloft within the mid/upper wave. A cool overnight period tonight, where temperatures will reside in the upper 30s across northern Missouri to the lower/middle 40s elsewhere, could yield some isolated frost in low spots, where temperatures could drop into the middle 30s.
Expect lows tonight to be warmer and in the 30s, with highs Wednesday similar to today in the 50s to lower 60s.
1022 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
Lows will drop into the low to mid 40s. This will keep these areas "warmer" with low temperatures in the lower 50s. An upper level high pressure system along the Gulf coast will expand westward into West Central Texas, putting our region in a southwesterly flow. This will allow for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.
A warm front, which started this morning near the Tennessee border, has now lifted north to almost the Ohio River evident by a south wind shift and an increase in low level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s. A cold front bisected the states of Missouri and Arkansas, steadily marching east. Once this waves passes but still ahead of the cold front, there will remain chances for scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder, though the instability is very limited with loss of daytime heating.
627 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Fairly decent mid/upper trough currently moving through the area, developing some post frontal showers and thunderstorms across the area. These storms appear to be driven by steep lapse rates - above the low level temperatures inversion - associated with the cold air aloft within the mid/upper wave. A cool overnight period tonight, where temperatures will reside in the upper 30s across northern Missouri to the lower/middle 40s elsewhere, could yield some isolated frost in low spots, where temperatures could drop into the middle 30s.
Proton Previous Discussion: An upper ridge axis located over eastern Montana will shift east and continue downstream of the CWA tonight and Wednesday. This will provide upper level southwest flow into eastern Montana into the day on Wednesday while a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest. A cold front will begin to approach the region late in the day, though ahead of this feature expect dry weather conditions, late increasing cloudiness, and warm temperatures into the 60s. Expect increasing west winds in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Wednesday night. Moisture at this time appears limited, though cooler temperatures will prevail through the second half of the week. The next cold front will approach toward the weekend as indicated by the latest 12z model guidance.
1014 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure south of the region, with mostly clear skies across the area. Warmer air will continue to build into the area through Wednesday, ahead of approaching cold front.
617 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 The surface front and low pressure had made its way through/east of the region this afternoon though lingering low stratus and mist/drizzle was still occuring for some locations. Overnight temperatures area expected to fall into the lower 40s across the region with some locations across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas seeing a few upper 30 readings. Cloud cover will slowly improve from southwest to north east through the day Wednesday with highs only reaching the lower 60s.
This should enhance the westerly wind component with peak gusts probably no more than 25-30mph in the foothills, and up around 35mph on the higher exposed ridgetops. A ridge of high pressure over the state will allow temperatures to rebound to near normal tomorrow.
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show the cold front on our western doorstep already, but it has been standing in place there for the past 2-3 hours, awaiting its upper energy push that will propel it on across our FA. Fropa brings gusty shift to west/northwest winds and then drier/cooler air replaces our almost summer like warm/humid airmass for the next couple days thereafter. Dew points some 15-20F cooler are poised to usher across the FA. Ridging upper heights/high pressure will bring warming profile as we head into the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over the state will allow temperatures to rebound to near normal tomorrow.
A couple hours of light and variable winds are expected as the ridge axis passes by each terminal. Temperatures between ridgetops and low-lying areas may vary as much as 10F due to the strong low level inversion. Wednesday will be sunny and warmer than today, though highs will remain 5-10F below average, mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
920 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Increased overnight lows a few degrees into the mid to upper 30s for most areas given mixing ahead of low pressure across Montana, following the 01 UTC NBM. The winds develop in response to increasing gradient flow from a dry trough of low pressure in eastern Montana and high pressure in place across Minnesota. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 50s.
532 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Afternoon GOES 16 upper level water vapor imagery showed a compact upper low across the Great Plains beginning to eject north through the midwest. Along the west coast, an upper level trough was digging south off the coast of Washington State. Between the two troughs, a transient ridge of high pressure was located over the Four Corners area. Mostly sunny skies will persist this afternoon and evening as the ridge makes its way to the east. Temperatures will be on a significant ramp up into Wednesday, as warm southwesterly winds develop behind the ridge and the west coast trough makes its way toward the area.
1122 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring rain for Wednesday.
The cold front has pushed into South Texas and breezy northerly winds have been left behind across the region.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Upper low currently moving into northern Missouri with broad swath of warm advection precipitation across north and east Iowa. Also, some convective cells continue in the far southeast just ahead of the upper low. A few isolated to scattered showers will persist into the evening with the passage of the upper low and associated instability. This will allow temperatures overnight to drop into the mid to upper 30s with warmer readings to the east where clouds persist.
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring rain for Wednesday.
This inverted trof may result in a short window this afternoon into early evening for a HSLC tornado, especially in our Illinois Counties along and south of I80. This low as it leaves the area along with a high building in, will serve as the main weather foci for the short term. Main forecast concern in the short term will be the exiting low pressure and the return of high pressure tomorrow across the area. H85 flow will continue to pull moisture to the west through the evening, before the upper level lows move to the east.
Upper level trough approaching the area tonight, and the associated cold front looks like it has passed over the Cascades and will progress into eastern Oregon overnight, into the Treasure Valley in the early morning, and into the Magic Valley by late morning. At 02Z surface cold front from eastern WA through central OR, moving eastward.
658 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A fairly tranquil pattern under high pressure. Temperatures will drop to below freezing again tonight for some more morning frost. Temperatures will be on the increase as warmer air advects into the region on Wednesday with dry conditions for the remainder of the week. A mid-level ridge will move from the Upper Midwest and south-central Canada to the northeastern US and eastern Canada early in the period.
Currently, temperatures are warming through the 50s into the low 60s over much of the forecast area under a sunny sky. We will be monitoring the 500mb trough over the western U.
The winds develop in response to increasing gradient flow from a dry trough of low pressure in eastern Montana and high pressure in place across Minnesota. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 50s.
However, there is a line of convection in West TN ahead of the cold front that is projected to reach our area around 10-12Z.
637 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 The upper level low pressure center responsible for last night's convection has lifted northeast into Iowa this evening. Subsidence on the back side of the system combined with dry air behind a cold front means VFR conditions and overall quiet weather across the area. /Issued 344 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ Mid and high level clouds generally southeast of a Breckenridge to Sherman line will continue to move northeast through the evening hours. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast.
644 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A weak cold front will move through most of the forecast tonight, but will not make it entirely through southeastern MS before daybreak. /BB/ Tonight and Wednesday: A cold front is arriving on the doorstop of our CWA this afternoon. Hello, fleeting taste of fall! /DL/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: Any lingering rain showers/storms should be cleared out by Wednesday evening as the upper high pressure ridge shifts over the CWA. Granted, temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year.
Mid level clouds across the Lower Trans Pecos will dissipate through the night.
/issued 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper trough over ern KS, and its associated cold front has reached the Gulf Coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in a dry slot as post-frontal northerly sfc flow continues. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will remain under SW flow aloft thru the weekend as the upper ridge centered over the lwr east coast develops westward.
758 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 An area of low pressure will approach the region tonight and a cold front will move through on Wednesday.
920 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 An upper low is centered over west central IL this evening promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-70 and west of I-57 as it swings northeastward. Very minimal amounts of instability are associated with the low this far northward, however strong effective bulk shear has produced a few strong but low topped storms producing strong wind gusts and small hail this evening.
Clear skies and light winds will make it prime conditions for temperatures to drop below freezing across the area. Still expect these winds to be light, but they could dampen the lowest temperatures and may also have an earlier low temp as the high moves overhead.
Thu-Fri Night: All will be quiet across KICT Country the rest of the work-week as a strong upper-deck high & its associated ridge, which will punch as far north as Hudson Bay from Wed-Thu, dominate until Thu Night. An intense mid-upper cyclone moving east from Alberta that should reach the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border late Thu Night will force the afore-mentioned ridge further east across Quebec Thu Night. This would induce pronounced surface troffing along the Front Range. The increasing southerly flow, which will gradually shift toward the southwest then west Fri afternoon, would produce much warmer weather. Showers & a few thunderstorms are still set to arrive late Fri Night as moisture return increases ahead of a cold front that may decelerate as it encroaches upon the northwest corridor of the CWA. This would drive the cold front across Southeast KS late Sat Night.
A Pacific Northwest storm system will bring much cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week. However, despite the high clouds coming over the CWA tonight, temperatures at Bryce, Cedar City and Salt Lake City have already fallen to within a few degrees of their predicted lows.
Cooled eastern zones to just below freezing. Expect lows tonight to be warmer and in the 30s, with highs Wednesday similar to today in the 50s to lower 60s.
At the surface, low pressure continues to drift east across the Mississippi River Valley while high pressure fills in behind. Some models are hanging on to clouds along the Missouri River Valley and points east and so think temps should remain above freezing along and east of the river. Areas to the west however will be clear and under the high pressure ridge axis and so think freezing temperatures are possible.
Lingering band of showers/tstms continues to spread ewd across N cntrl/NE AL this Tue afternoon, well ahead of a weak cold front located from the OH Valley swd into the AR/LA states. The cold front itself will begin to cross ewd into the local area later tonight, although little/if any precip is xpcted along the boundary into the early morning period Wed. Any lingering precip should then quickly come to an end with the onset of the evening hrs Wed, as a strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states begins to build ewd into much of the region going into Thu.
816 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A warm front will spread rain over the region tonight. This evening will remain dry ahead of a warm front expected overnight. Showers along the warm front will gradually overspread the area in the pre-dawn hours. Focused categorical PoPs along the leading edge of the upper-level trough through midday Wednesday.
715 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure off the Southeast Coast will circulate moisture into the forecast area through Wednesday.
A cold front is located from just southeast of KAEX to KLCH and is beginning to move to the southeast. /issued 334 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ Surface observations this afternoon indicate a cold front extends from Alexandria to the coastal waters south of Sabine Pass. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the cold front and should continue to do so through the late evening hours across Acadiana. Cooler and drier air will be advected in behind the front through tonight and Wednesday. However, since temperatures have been running well above normal the past several day, "cooler" air will only result in temperatures being near normal for this time of year. All model guidance continues to indicate than an anomalously strong upper level ridge will build over the Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For tonight, and upper low over eastern Kansas will continue to slowly pivot eastward. High pressure drifting through the area, combined with clear skies should promote strong radiational cooling overnight. After coordination with neighbors will issue a freeze warning along the Missouri River, with a frost advisory further east into NW Iowa where temperatures may fall into the lower or middle 30s. Increasing troughing over the western CONUS will allow our temperatures to warm back above normal across the Plains.
726 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring rain for Wednesday.
1221 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Crossing low pressure will bring occasional rain to the area through Wednesday night.
A re-run of min temp population of shorter range guidances indicated no significant deviations from the lows predicted earlier; thus will assume additional cloud cover will fill in during the overnight hours and not attempt to second guess the existing lows. The cold front has pushed into South Texas and breezy northerly winds have been left behind across the region.
The cold front should enhance late tonight over the Clearwaters and then move into western MT in the morning.
This drier air will hang around for the remainder of the work week as a ridge of high pressure starts to build across the eastern U.
Some light showers continue behind the cold front and will include VCSH remarks at CRP/ALI/LRD. MSAS analysis confirm that the cold front is moving across the MSA, with drier atmospheric conditions following the front. Deterministic NWP models predict the upper system over the Plains to continue to lift NEWD while a long-wave upper trough moves across the WRN CONUS/Rockies during the period. Expect tide levels at Bob Hall Pier and Port OConnor to reach 2ft msl during the high tide cycles, and thus will maintain the CFW for minor tidal overflow until 12z Wednesday.
Breezy to windy ridge top winds will result also, from the increased winds aloft with the winds spreading over the east slopes of the mountains into the foothills and through the wind corridor from Sweetwater through natrona counties.
Current temperature trends are following the forecast fairly well, ranging from lows in the mid 50s across the interstate 30 corridor to the lower 70s elsewhere. /issued 717 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ For the ArkLaTex, NW flow deepening in the wake of this morning's cold frontal passage. Overnight, look for more SKC toward dawn perhaps and no issues with mist or fog as air will be quite dry with fresh high pressure moving into the area.
1037 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring rain for Wednesday.
753 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 After a dry night, a batch of rain will move in Wednesday through Wednesday night as wave of low pressure tracks through the region.
1021 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Cold front has pushed into the Gulf tonight with high pressure over the southern Plains.
A deep easterly current prevailed with fast flow in the low levels, facilitating healthy upward fluxes of heat and moisture from a warm ocean. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s. A high pressure area over the North Atlantic, extending towards the southeast United States overnight, will maintain fresh northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight and Wednesday.
A cold front was approaching the area from the west and some showers and storms were located along the front in northern Mississippi. The low pressure system to our north moves eastward through the Midwest and stretches a frontal boundary down through the Tennessee Valley and Central Alabama. This really isn't a cold front due to lack of significant temperature gradient;however, there is a substantial moisture gradient with dewpoints in the 70s ahead of the front and 50s behind.
A few marine showers over the Space/Treasure Coast waters signal arrival of somewhat higher moisture ahd of the apchg upper low over the open Atlc. Lows will range from the lower 70s interior to mid to upper 70s along srn coastal sections.
/Issued 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ Storm system which ushered in the noticeably cooler airmass is currently lifting slowly northward through the Central Plains. Low cloudiness on the back side of the cyclone will be slow to erode which will impact both overnight low temps and possible fog development.
1007 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure off the Southeast Coast will circulate moisture into the forecast area through Wednesday.
1027 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 An area of low pressure will approach the region tonight and a cold front will move through on Wednesday.
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ The cold front has now pushed offshore and we are left with a refreshing, relatively cooler airmass.
Tonight and Wednesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure spinning over the central Mississippi Valley, and a Canadian high pressure from the northern Great Lakes to the west- central Great Plains. As the low pressure moves northeast, precip chances and trends are the main forecast concerns. The low pressure system will track across central Illinois and Indiana. Areas south of Wisconsin Rapids to Kewaunee will stand the highest chance of rainfall. Low temps will range from the low 30s north to near 50 south. Then high pressure will reassert itself for the rest of the day.
Evening temperatures have already fallen a bit below pace for overnight lows, and dry dewpoints, along with light winds, should allow minimums to fall to around freezing. Ridging with southwest flow aloft will keep dry and warm conditions in place for one more day. Cold front arrives late on Wednesday with a chance for showers over areas west of Billings, in addition to gusty west to northwest winds.
Behind this front, an upper trough will move into northern portions of the area and expect a slight chance for showers across Del Norte county late tonight and Wednesday as this cool and showery air mass moves overhead.
Some cooler and drier air is there behind it but is lagging a few counties across W AR. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front are present across the northwest third of Alabama in response to the combination of the moist airmass and some upper disturbances going around the SE US ridge. The low pressure system to our north moves eastward through the Midwest and stretches a frontal boundary down through the Tennessee Valley and Central Alabama. This really isn't a cold front due to lack of significant temperature gradient;however, there is a substantial moisture gradient with dewpoints in the 70s ahead of the front and 50s behind.
A cold front is nearing the KLFT terminal and will move across that location and the KARA terminal before 11/08Z. /issued 334 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ Surface observations this afternoon indicate a cold front extends from Alexandria to the coastal waters south of Sabine Pass. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the cold front and should continue to do so through the late evening hours across Acadiana. Cooler and drier air will be advected in behind the front through tonight and Wednesday. However, since temperatures have been running well above normal the past several day, "cooler" air will only result in temperatures being near normal for this time of year. All model guidance continues to indicate than an anomalously strong upper level ridge will build over the Gulf Coast through the weekend.