Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1259 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 Northwest flow/lake enhanced snow showers will continue through tonight, with some accumulation expected north of I-80 and on the higher ridges. The near term period will be dominated by northwest flow/cold advection, with a 850mb thermal trough crossing the region tonight. Upslope flow will also provide likely more modest accumulation along the ridges east of Pittsburgh. Accumulation expectations from here are generally around an inch in the ridges, perhaps up to 2 on the higher peaks. The last of the lake-effect snow showers will end Tuesday morning as RH levels in the low levels drop with the departure of the coldest 850mb temperatures.
143 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Surface analysis indicates a warm front extending from northwest to southeast across the forecast area this afternoon.
1251 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure in the Upper Midwest today will center itself over the region early Tuesday morning and move east of the Appalachians during the day.
219 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee valley region this afternoon with high pressure well established across the area. As a result, temperatures will drop off quickly with the setting sun and eventually drop into the low to mid 20s by late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
315 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 As the longwave trough axis continues to push east of our area, low amplitude upper level ridging will build in from the west resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the period. Latest surface analysis shows expansive high pressure across the central US with ridging building in over the OH Valley with enough PGF to generate some gusty WSW to WNW winds this afternoon, mainly north of the Parkways. Resultant weak low level WAA component and subsequent increasing 1000-850mb thickness values will manifest in a slightly warmer day tomorrow with highs in the mid 30s across southern Indiana and upper 30s to low 40s across central KY. The resultant interaction does not bring any sensible weather to the lower Ohio Valley due to dry air below 700 mb and best surface forcing displaced well up north.
(This evening through Tuesday) The 1040mb high pressure center that is sitting over the southern Plains this afternoon will shift southeastward tonight through tomorrow. Until the high moves eastward, winds will remain light and variable for much of the night. Cloud cover will increase from the south overnight, but not before low temperatures fall to around freezing. Despite the cloud cover, the overall depth of the moisture is shallow and the low levels look too dry for substantial rain chances at this time. Still, the amount of lift in this trough may be enough to overcome the dry air for a few isolated showers or brief sprinkles in the afternoon, mainly east of an Abilene to Sonora line.
1203 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 This morning a mid-level trough is positioned over the eastern CONUS, and a mid-level ridge is sitting over the Four Corners region. Monday night into Tuesday a low-level ridge will pass over the mid- Mississippi Valley, and throw the region into southwesterly low- level flow for Tuesday. MRM Caught between a ridge and a trough, the mid-level northwesterly flow will dominate through the remainder of the work week.
A decaying cold front attendant to occluding low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska was progressing through the area this morning. Outside of a sprinkle, the increased cloud cover has limited fog potential and and led to warmer overnight lows. For the rest of today - expect a mix of sun and clouds as the upper level trough and decay front move east.
Today and Tonight: A decaying cold front attendant to occluding low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska was moved through the area earlier this morning.
Low level warm advection should ramp up on Tuesday across the area as weak upper level ridging builds across the area. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s in the western half of the CWA with upper 40s to low 50s in the east.
Highs will increase into the low 60s across NW OK Tue afternoon within this downslope flow.
Cold air advection and occasionally gusty north winds continue in the wake of the cold frontal passage late yesterday into last night. /SHV/ Today and tonight: Low clouds and patchy drizzle are clearing out nicely this morning as an upper trough axis passes north to south in the wake of last night's cold front.
/issued 523 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/ High clouds may thicken mid to late morning mainly KLBB as an upper level low pressure just west of El Paso develops and edges to the east. A weak upper trough overhead early this morning will give way to minor upper level height building this afternoon before a weak compact mid level low pressure approaches from northern Mexico late tonight. The first will be Tuesday as a closed low moves over our region. The main area of lift with this system is expected to remain south of the area as the center of the low moves overhead. We will begin to warm back above normal going into the middle of the week as an upper-level ridge to our west moves towards the area and heights begin to build over the region.
1055 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE A weak upper level low pressure system passing eastward over southern NM will continue to produce clouds over southern parts of the forecast area, and even a period of light snow over the south central mountains tonight.
The current forecast looked pretty good this morning as deep nwly flow dominates aloft reinforcing intruding cool/dry high pressure at the surface. VFR conditions will prevail through the taf cycle as high pressure dominates. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 45 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 42 26 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 22 42 25 47 30 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 37 22 45 29 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Winds will gradually veer around to southeasterly to southerly with time as high pressure moves east of the area. High temperatures should be a bit warmer on Tuesday with the return of southerly flow and gradually clearing skies throughout the afternoon. Low temperatures Tuesday night may be a bit cooler than tonight as clear skies are expected by this time leading to efficient radiational cooling.
Winds will gradually veer around to southeasterly to southerly with time as high pressure moves east of the area. (Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper level trough is over the East Coast and Upper Midwest with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. An upper low is positioned over southeast Arizona and may result in a few light rain showers from Culberson County to the Davis Mountains this morning.
138 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 Northwest flow/lake enhanced snow showers will continue through tonight, with some accumulation expected north of I-80 and on the higher ridges. The near term period will be dominated by northwest flow/cold advection, with a 850mb thermal trough crossing the region tonight. Upslope flow will also provide likely more modest accumulation along the ridges east of Pittsburgh. Accumulation expectations from here are generally around an inch in the ridges, perhaps up to 2 on the higher peaks. The last of the lake-effect snow showers will end Tuesday morning as RH levels in the low levels drop with the departure of the coldest 850mb temperatures.
919 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 In wake of the frontal passage yesterday, high pressure is building into the area, promoting clear and calm conditions. Thus, despite the abundant sunshine, it will feel quite chilly today as temperatures will struggle to climb much above the lower 40s. As the aformentioned east coast trough pushes further offshore, a split flow upper level pattern forms across the CONUS.
Dry and below normal for temperatures through the period as cold high pressure prevails. Discussion: A rather nice/cool day underway across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians as deep nwly confluent flow reinforces intruding high pressure at the surface which is moving in from the west. Deep and dry profiles continue to support mostly sunny skies however with light/moderate nwly cold advective flow keeping temperatures well below normal levels while modest mixing favors dewpoints in the lower teens (RHs in the 20s/30s). Guidance favors nearly identical conditions on Tuesday as far as sensible weather, perhaps just a few degrees warmer for high temperatures amidst light/calm winds.
1045 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Pretty short term period coming, with H5 ridging building across the Intermountain West. With the ridging building overhead, bringing in warmer air aloft, both of these will strengthen inversions holding in local basins through today and tomorrow. Minimal change in the pattern for Tuesday brings another cool day for basin and warmer conditions off the eastern slopes of local ranges.
An area of high pressure will continue to shift to our east, introducing easterly surface winds by the end of the period. /issued 1040 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/ Post-frontal conditions continue with northerly winds maintaining dew points in the 20s area wide and maximum temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s by this afternoon.
1022 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Upper level ridging continues to develop over the region while a trough approaches the Pacific Coast per latest GOES 16/17 Satellite imagery.
Otherwise, the high is progged to quickly depart bringing the return of southerly flow along with low-level WAA and a 50-60 knot 850mb jet to the area for Tuesday. This system looks to drag a weak cold front across WI overnight Tuesday.
1023 AM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 09z surface analysis had warm front from northeast MT into northeast NE. Lee trough was located from central MT into southeast WY. Upper ridge per water vapour over the Rockies the main concern this forecast period.
From there, expect a slight warming trend by midweek, as high pressure shifts towards the middle Atlantic. Latest surface analysis shows a cold front about 200 miles offshore, with two strong 1040mb centers of high pressure over Oklahoma and the Upper Midwest. High pressure over the upper Midwest will start to sink southeastward into the Ohio River Valley tonight, bringing a very noticeable blast of cold air with it. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 20s under clear skies. A robust mid and upper-level low-pressure system over Northern Quebec and Newfoundland will continue a push of colder air over the east coast.
This will weaken the ridge that has given us the pleasant weather and bring more cloud cover into the area over the next few hours and continuing into the overnight. By midday tomorrow however, the ridge looks to build back in keeping things dry for the area. A few, not many, hi-res models show maybe a very isolated snow shower or two near Island Park in the afternoon before the ridge's influence sets in but chance remains low enough to keep out of the forecast at this time.
Will need to look at fog potential the next few nights (and days) with a warmer airmass in place on top of the snowpack, and its possible influence on temperatures. upper ridge pattern translates east, the arctic air mass will retreat. The upper ridging will also help provide large scale subsidence and dry weather conditions across NE Montana.
Valleys of Southwest and Central Montana will remain cooler than the surrounding plains due to strong temperature inversions over the valleys.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night): Weak mid-level ridging occurs this evening over the CWA as showers from yesterday's cold front begin to taper off. As for Tuesday, a weak mid-level trough moves west-east across central Texas. However, this trough doesn't seem to phase our weather pattern. Tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer with a little bit more sunshine expected than today with highs in the mid 60s. With elevated winds and seas still occurring due to the passage of the cold front yesterday, a Rip Current Statement is still in effect through Tuesday evening.
143 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 A progressive trough moving through New England has decimated the ridge which was sitting off the eastern seaboard.
As high pressure moves in from the north, winds and wind gusts will begin to decrease for northern counties and slowly begin to decrease towards the south as this high pressure settles in. Latest satellite imagery shows a gradual clearing now underway as drier air behind yesterday's cold front continues to filter into the area.
In wake of the frontal passage yesterday, high pressure is building into the area, promoting clear and calm conditions. Thus, despite the abundant sunshine, it will feel quite chilly today as temperatures will struggle to climb much above the lower 40s. As the aformentioned east coast trough pushes further offshore, a split flow upper level pattern forms across the CONUS.
High pressure will be displaced to our north and east, with high clouds moving in from an approaching disturbance acting as a bit of an insulator.
Look for an increase in high clouds Tuesday night as an upper trough approaches from Alberta.
1238 PM PST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure brings inversions, valley air stagnation, and areas of degraded air quality through the middle of the week.
Tomorrow afternoon will be noticeably warmer compared to today with highs topping out in the 20s for the northeast portions of the forecast area to the low 30s for the southwest areas into northeast Iowa.
The longwave upper-level trough, located over the Great Lakes region, will continue its eastward movement throughout the day today. Zonal flow aloft has transitioned to northwesterly after the trough's axis passed overhead earlier this afternoon. At the surface, the cold front is well to the south and east of our area. High pressure will be in control throughout the near term period as it builds over the Midwest and moves southeastward.
/Updated at 1047 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/ High pressure over the Ohio Valley will linger through the short term with northerly flow across the state. This will bring plenty of cooler and drier air advecting.
352 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight and move off to the east on Tuesday.
140 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 /Updated at 1047 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/ High pressure over the Ohio Valley will linger through the short term with northerly flow across the state. This will bring plenty of cooler and drier air advecting.
High pressure will settle into the eastern United States and will keep us dry and pleasant.
334 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Relatively quiet in the short term as high pressure remains across the western US.
Slightly warmer conditions are expected tomorrow. High pressure will settle into the eastern United States and will keep us dry and pleasant.
457 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) The 1040mb high pressure center that is sitting over the southern Plains this afternoon will shift southeastward tonight through tomorrow. Until the high moves eastward, winds will remain light and variable for much of the night. Cloud cover will increase from the south overnight, but not before low temperatures fall to around freezing. Despite the cloud cover, the overall depth of the moisture is shallow and the low levels look too dry for substantial rain chances at this time. Still, the amount of lift in this trough may be enough to overcome the dry air for a few isolated showers or brief sprinkles in the afternoon, mainly east of an Abilene to Sonora line.
411 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Sunny skies and near normal temperatures were the rule across the region this afternoon beneath a ridge of high pressure over eastern Utah and western Colorado. A ridge reforms to the West Tuesday night with scattered mid and high clouds spreading over the forecast area during the night. Low temperatures tonight will be near or a little warmer than those experienced last night thanks in large part to partial cloud cover.
344 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a clear sky as a ridge moves in. Am thinking there will be some WAA which will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night. Tuesday a trough will move through, turning winds to the northwest behind it.
High temperatures should be a bit warmer on Tuesday with the return of southerly flow and gradually clearing skies throughout the afternoon. Low temperatures Tuesday night may be a bit cooler than tonight as clear skies are expected by this time leading to efficient radiational cooling.
High pressure keeps the region dry with light winds for the next few days.
919 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight and move off to the east on Tuesday.
No issues through this TAF package with VFR conditions persisting as high pressure builds down into the region. High pressure over the Southern Great Plains will continue to push south and decrease the local pressure gradient, helping to decrease winds as well. Upper level clouds will gradually fill back in tomorrow as a mid level trough pushes through Central and Southeastern TX. With increasing upper level cloud cover tomorrow reflecting insolation, daytime highs should only be a few degrees warmer than today and still reach the upper 50s to low 60s.
247 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Sunny skies and near normal temperatures were the rule across the region this afternoon beneath a ridge of high pressure over eastern Utah and western Colorado. A ridge reforms to the West Tuesday night with scattered mid and high clouds spreading over the forecast area during the night. Low temperatures tonight will be near or a little warmer than those experienced last night thanks in large part to partial cloud cover.
303 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 After chilly highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s this afternoon, the next Canadian high pressure system will dive south into the region tonight/early Tuesday, reinforcing the very cold conditions.
Light/variable winds for much of today will turn to the southeast and increase a bit this evening and overnight as high pressure drifts southeastward across eastern MN/IA and into the western Great Lakes.
High pressure will bring dry and stable conditions to the region through at least midweek.
211 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a clear sky as a ridge moves in. Am thinking there will be some WAA which will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night. Tuesday a trough will move through, turning winds to the northwest behind it.
High pressure will remain over the area for the next several days keeping the weather dry and temperatures at or near seasonal normals. Weak and dissipating upper trough is now moving slowly to the east over Central California with lots of cirrus clouds. With the weakening trough moving to the east, the area will have less cloud cover this evening and overnight and this will set the stage for another night of radiational cooling and fog development in the San Joaquin Valley. Deterministic and ensemble models keep a ridge of high pressure over the area for the next several days and of course this will keep the storm track away from Central California. Dry conditions will prevail everywhere and under the ridge, the inversion and fog/status scenario will continue on a nightly basis.
556 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 Northwest flow/lake enhanced snow showers will continue through tonight, with some accumulation expected north of I-80 and on the higher ridges. The Wind Chill Advisory will be kept in place as -10 and below Wind Chills are likely in the higher terrain in east Tucker County. The near term period will be dominated by northwest flow/cold advection, with a 850mb thermal trough crossing the region tonight. Upslope flow will also provide likely more modest accumulation along the ridges east of Pittsburgh. Accumulation expectations from here are generally around an inch in the ridges, perhaps up to 2 on the higher peaks. The last of the lake-effect snow showers will end Tuesday morning as RH levels in the low levels drop with the departure of the coldest 850mb temperatures.
After chilly highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s this afternoon, the next Canadian high pressure system will dive south into the region tonight/early Tuesday, reinforcing the very cold conditions.
Two short wave troughs will affect the cwa for tonight through Tuesday night. On Tuesday, the tightening surface pressure gradient along with a deepening mixing layer with stronger winds off the surface will bring much warmer air down to the surface. For Tuesday night, the second short wave trough will drop in from the northwest bringing lift into the region. The thermal profile may result in some light freezing rain for a time with the chances right now to be on the light snow side.
We don't see much change in temperatures through this period, with the strong inversions holding firm in the lower elevations of Grand County/Upper Colorado River Basin.
Winds will become light/variable to calm during the evening and overnight period with high pressure over the region. But the high will start to shift eastward on Tuesday, and easterly and eventually southerly surface winds will return by the end of the period.
Breezy northerly winds today in the wake of a cold front will gradually weaken overnight as high pressure settles in to the northwest. Clearing skies and the advection of cooler, drier air will allow cold temperatures across the region tonight, with low temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s. Across the upper levels, the base of broad upper level trough will be exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Tuesday night, which will allow for some slight height increases across the region.
630 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 Dry and cold high pressure building into the region will persist through the middle of the week.
A very dry air mass has settled over Middle Tennessee as high pressure continues to build into the region.
The strong ridge remains in place over the area and will continue to be here through the week.
637 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight and move off to the east on Tuesday.
211 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022 Strong ridging surface and aloft was promoting mostly clear skies and milder temperatures this afternoon. Surface gradient between a trough over the high plains and ridge west of the Front Range was tight enough to generate gusty westerly winds along and west of the Laramie Range. Arlington (ARL), closer to the ridge, was much lighter (5-15 mph).
As the longwave trough axis continues to push east of our area, low amplitude upper level ridging will build in from the west resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the period. Latest surface analysis shows expansive high pressure across the central US with ridging building in over the OH Valley with enough PGF to generate some gusty WSW to WNW winds this afternoon, mainly north of the Parkways. Resultant weak low level WAA component and subsequent increasing 1000-850mb thickness values will manifest in a slightly warmer day tomorrow with highs in the mid 30s across southern Indiana and upper 30s to low 40s across central KY. The resultant interaction does not bring any sensible weather to the lower Ohio Valley due to dry air below 700 mb and best surface forcing displaced well up north.
/22/ Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will remain in control through the short term period with northwest flow aloft. Lows will fall to near freezing for much of the area with mid and upper 20s likely north of I-20.
Tranquil weather across the Tennessee valley region this afternoon with high pressure well established across the area. As a result, temperatures will drop off quickly with the setting sun and eventually drop into the low to mid 20s by late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
412 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will remain in control through the short term period with northwest flow aloft. Lows will fall to near freezing for much of the area with mid and upper 20s likely north of I-20.