Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
426 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
441 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVER QUEBEC WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY MONDAY.
THE MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS VA/NORTHERN NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POP IN THE WEST AND NORTH, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (70 PERCENT), WITH 50 POP IN THE SE.
313 AM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
418 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER CLOUDS. MAY TRANSPORT SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AT LOWER LEVELS. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL U. THAT BROUGHT US OUR UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK.
425 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 INCREASED MOISTURE AND A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES AND DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AND AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE. MAXIMA MAY RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS WEEKEND.
NEGATIVES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND DENSE FOG IS RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS AND LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO LAYERS OF CLOUDS. /ISSUED 419 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HISTORIC FLOODING TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM.
401 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMING OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARMTH. STILL WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE HIGH IN THE LOW 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE REASON FOR THE EASTWARD SHIFT IS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS TODAY.
525 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO MANITOBA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.
335 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 AN UPPER-RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS ADVANCED NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO MIDDLE BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
658 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVER QUEBEC WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY MONDAY.
A STRONGER CLOSED LOW WAS OVER ARIZONA. THIS 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 55 72 52 / 60 40 50 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 54 69 52 / 60 40 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 74 55 69 52 / 60 40 70 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 50 69 50 / 60 40 60 50.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
CRESTVIEW AND FLORALA AS OF 9 PM COURTESY OF A GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MESO-LOW LIFTING FROM COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL AL. AREA SURFACE AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN OUR OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND THIS EVENING. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW DEW POINTS. BUT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY TO THE LOW 50S. THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEVELOPING CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA. ITS ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS.
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DEWPOINTS NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE. YESTERDAY'S TIGHTLY PACKED UPPER LOW IS NOW RAPIDLY CUTTING EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TODAY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION BUT RESIDUAL GRADIENT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY.
341 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 THE UPPER LOW WHICH PROVIDED SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS QUICKLY EXITED THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SECOND SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY STALLED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFY THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FL GULF COAST AT 06Z WILL TRACK N/NNE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON (15-21Z) AS S/SSW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. -VINCENT THE MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS VA/NORTHERN NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POP IN THE WEST AND NORTH, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (70 PERCENT), WITH 50 POP IN THE SE.
408 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 OPEN WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY WAS THE CLOSED LOW IN EASTERN TX WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MO AND WAS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE TX PNHDL AND WAS MOVING EAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN TX PUSHES ACROSS OK AND INTO NW ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
454 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 CLOSED UPPER LOW TO QUICKLY EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z TODAY. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
118 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST AND LIFTING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND INTO CENTRAL AL. AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INLAND ZONES. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THEN PASSES EAST OF THE STATE WELL TO THE NORTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z AND TURN THE WIND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE 14 TO 18 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. 79 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TONIGHT OTHER THAN TO REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ HIGH PITCHED CHEERING CAN BE HEARD THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CELEBRATE THE DEPARTURE OF OUR TENACIOUS AND TROUBLESOME UPPER LEVEL LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DELIVER SUNNY SKIES AND A DISTINCT WARMING TREND SUNDAY THRU MONDAY.
419 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS WELL. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. MONDAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT S TO W BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STEADILY RISING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED VALLEY AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER.
WITH ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE SPLIT FLOW WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING AND MOVING OUT OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS. ENJOY MONDAY AS READINGS WILL TREND COOLER. AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FROM ALBERTA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AND EMERGES ONTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECORD FLOODING WEST. THE KICKER TROUGH/LOW WAS ALREADY INTO WEST TEXAS AND MOVING EASTWARD FAST.
THE PAIR OF 500 MB TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS OVER THE NM/TX/OK AREA WILL PUSH OUT TO THE EAST PRETTY QUICKLY TODAY ALLOWING A ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO MON. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS AS THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERDO THE EXPECTED HIGHS TOO MUCH.
302 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL BRING STRONGER AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE WEST COAST.
/ISSUED 1003 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ RAINS HAVE FINALLY COME TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE NE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF VCTS AT THE TXK/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 12-18MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AT TIMES BY SUN AFTN. SIMILAR TO FOG THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT IN VCNTY OF UPPER LOW STILL IN AREA.
/issued 330 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ (Tonight and Sunday) The upper low is now over northeastern Texas and will open into a wave as it lifts out to the northeast this evening. A compact upper low is just southeast of the Four Corners area and is moving quickly to the east. This low will track east across the Texas Panhandle overnight, and across southern Oklahoma on Sunday. temperatures will be much warmer on Sunday. Highs are expected to range from the upper 70s north and east of Abilene, to the lower 80s across most of the rest of west central Texas.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPDATED 0600Z A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
Energy with NE moving upper low out of east TX will result in showers moving from south to north across the area tonight with some embedded thunder possible. The low will open up by 12z Sunday, with best moisture and lift shifting north in the morning. Meanwhile, a second upper low should be over the Red River Valley region 12z Sunday.
348 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH TODAY AND MONDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW.
458 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO MICHIGAN TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH, WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH OPENING UP CUT-OFF LOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR LOOP LIFTING NE ACROSS NE ARK THIS MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AS THE LOW/WARM FRONT APPROACHES. COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ENHANCED TODAY BY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WERE BEING INGESTED INTO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH MAY LIFT THE MOIST LAYER JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL SLOWLY LIFT N-NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
234 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ON ACCOUNT OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON MEMORIAL DAY. AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. THE NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN COLORADO ON ITS SLOW AND STEADY PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POSITION OF THIS LOW HAS KEPT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW FILLS AND SLIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON MEMORIAL DAY. IT HAD BEEN LOOKING LIKE A RIDGE WOULD SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL PLACE THE AREA IN UNSETTLED.
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK.
A RIDGE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HELPS SHOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
340 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COOLER NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE LWR AND MIDDLE 60S COASTAL AREAS. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHRT WV ENERGY FROM W-SW WEAKENING RIDGE LATE WEEK WHILE SLOWING WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPR LOW OVER ATLC. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN UTAH WITH A SMALLER LOW NEAR LA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE BE NEAR YUMA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.
325 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN CO WITH ANOTHER COMPACT VORT MAX DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ TODAY AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK.
THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON. WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE LOW THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U. BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.
250 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING MAINTAINING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN BRINGING A SLOW INLAND WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. , AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY. THIS WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION.
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMER AIRMASS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.
311 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY.
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MID THROUGH LATE WEEK.
TODAY WILL START THE BEGINNING OF A MUCH WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GETS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
AREA STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING. BUT THAT INFLUENCE IS WANING AS THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER AWAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS IS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR MONDAY DESPITE RIDGING INDUCED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
631 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 AVIATION A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH UPPER PATTERN STILL FAVORING A RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH WITH RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES EAST OF I-135.
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST.
217 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CASCADES. SOME SMALL CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LATER TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY 00Z MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY ENDING UP OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PLUS MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY.