Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure was noted in the surface obs from southeast CO into eastern NEB. Slightly more mixing and some higher humidity is expected to keep lows a little warmer tonight. However there should be decent radiational cooling with clear skies once again, so have gone closer to the cooler MOS guidance.
340 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN BRIEF RETURN TO NNW FLOW/CAA. TRANSITION TO A MORE BONA-FIDE SPRING PATTN XPCD THIS PD W/LONGER TERM SUGGESTIONS OF GENERAL WKNG OF NEG HGT ANOMALIES UP ACRS ERN CANADA AND MORE TROUGHING ACRS THE WRN US BOTH OF WHICH HAVE BEEN LAGGING FOR SVRL MONTHS.
238 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015 Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. dry and moderating conditions expected right through midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs.
Only scattered high clouds over region as the low center and assocated short wave tracks north of central IL, dragging weak cold front into state overstate.
138 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015 A FEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. CREATE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND DEVELOP BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH MID WEEK.
314 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT. LOW PASSES NORTH WITH COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION. WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES.
Tonight, the northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio around dawn Tuesday. This trough will move south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly tomorrow night. After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south.
WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN TODAY. MAY RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED.
344 PM PDT Mon Mar 30 2015 Cooler but still above normal weather expected this week.
BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN LATER TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA ON TUE.
Turning cooler again and very unsettled/variable conditions. High pressure and relatively warm/dry conditions will persist through tonight. A cold front is expected to move across north central Idaho Tuesday morning and then intensify as it marches across western Montana Tuesday afternoon. The intensifying cold front and cold air surging into the region will produce moderate to strong winds. Much cooler air is expected to surge into the region behind the front with snow levels lowering to most valley floors by Tuesday night.
OTHERWISE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor, Brownwood, and around Sterling City.
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015 The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
527 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
As for temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.
254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM PARIS TEXAS TO TEXARKANA AND EASTWARD TO CAMDEN ARKANSAS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL AL/GA AT 18Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD AND INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHERNMOST ZONES TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
/ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/ MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015 WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what's left of it, over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to reach normal in the wake of last night's cold front. In addition, a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as well. Return flow is forecast to back this up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning. As the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin developing east.
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way eastward during the overnight hours. This will allow the stalled front over the southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front. Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the region.
1255 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015 COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
215 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE BAJA CA PENINSULA WILL SEND ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER TX TONIGHT WHILE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW CLOUDINESS.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IR/RAP ANALYSIS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR FARGO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING UP INTO. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NOT BEEN ADVANCING MUCH TO THE EAST. SO THE WARM AIR SHOULD MAINLY STAY WHERE IT IS NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG IT.
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING THROUGH MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING BEGINNING TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
206 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015 AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS. BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. /41/ /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/ A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH.
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way eastward during the overnight hours. This will allow the stalled front over the southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front. Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the region.
156 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. FRIES THE BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IS EXPECTED. BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. WHILE A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold front which will move through Tuesday. Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble. A weak cold front will move thru during the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time. The air following the cold front will not be much different than the one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING S/SW AS THE BNDRY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SE GA WHERE RAIN COOLED AIR LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S EARLY THIS AFTN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON TSTORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI WITH STACKED RIDGING OVER THE AREA UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH A LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS AHEAD OF A STALLING COLD FRONT.
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE.
High pressure will continue over the zones today and the region will remain dry with temps above normals. Broad upper level high pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies will maintain dry and stable conditions over the region through Tuesday morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Hoenisch Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty west to southwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front.
1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015 High pressure centered over AR will continue to drift to the southeast, with light southwest winds over central IL. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO WED AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO HAS BEEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW 50S. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID- LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
353 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED. NORTH OF THE TROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ALSO BREEZY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 925-850MB LAYER ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS FALLING TO THE LOW 20S AND 30S. AM THINKING LOWS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AT BEST. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. WITH READINGS A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE EAST WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED.
ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS THE COOL FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD BUT INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH STRONG HEATING IN PLACE TO POP THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. THIS ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE WEST AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS WARM RIDGE EASTWARD. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE LEAKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO HANG ON THE NORTHERN PLATEAUS BY MID DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERELY LACKING AND POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WHICH WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY.
627 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/ THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THERE WAS ALSO A TROUGH AND A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
high pressure across western NE this morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle 70s. Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a warm front during the mid-morning hrs.
BROAD TROUGH AXIS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD CONTINUES NW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE MID LAYERS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING INTO MID DAY.
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
LOOK FOR A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ARRIVING IN E TX BY 21Z AND AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE MID SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW UNTIL FROPA 04/00Z. AS SECOND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS AREAWIDE.
An impulse embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA today but with limited moisture to work with.
A SFC TROF WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCATION WILL VARY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A WAVE.
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WHILE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT.
Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into northeastern Kansas. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support highs in the lower and middle 70s. Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a warm front.
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINTAINING COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
1023 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RIDGE VALLEYS DIFFERENCES AS THE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO WARM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING. WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO AUBURN. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
1000 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
CURRENT NATIONAL UPPER LEVEL SYNOPSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST. RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APEX CROSSING THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THURS AND FRI AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDING NORTH.
Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken into a flat trough will move across the area.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE BOOTHEEL.
734 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY.