Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 247 PM EST Mon Dec 13 2021/ High pressure is currently centered across update South Carolina. The high will begin shifting offshore tomorrow, creating a wedge across eastern portions of the CWA. Dewpoints in the higher terrain are not being captured too well by the model guidance.
While areas that are hovering or still below freezing will have some impacts as the next round of precipitation is expected to move through the Northern Rockies right around sunset and the evening commute. A cold front will begin to make its way across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning.
A cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday, causing more widespread snowfall, then followed by a period of colder temperatures for the remainder of the week.
A cloud-free day with wind returning from the south has brought back warmer temperatures this afternoon. Temps will fall into the 30s overnight, staying slightly warmer than this morning. High pressure and a warming trend will remain in place for the next couple of days before a more active pattern resumes later in the week.
The only notable change for this update is to add a mention of fog to portions of northwest and north central North Dakota late tonight through Tuesday morning, mainly along the eastern slope of the higher terrain west of the Des Lacs River. Under very broad ridging across much of the CONUS, well above normal temperatures were observed across western and central North Dakota this afternoon.
Dry, quiet weather will continue tonight into tomorrow under high pressure. E CONUS ridging will maintain dry weather with moderating temperatures through Tuesday night.
With high pressure now off to our east, return flow will increase moisture across the region.
Looking at yesterday's verification, the cooler guidance was way to go for most areas since the clouds hung around all day over a large chunk of the area. The official forecast used a similar approach today with a blend of some of the cooler CAM guidance with the NBM to bring the forecast about 2-4 degrees below the NBM across the board.
Cloud development will move in from the W/SW tonight accompanied with some light showers and sprinkles in E Arkansas and NW MS due to a warm frontal boundary making its way into the region. Otherwise, expect temperatures ranging from the low 40s in the NE to low 50s in the SW. A warm front will move north across the area overnight into Tuesday and with increased moisture, clouds will be on the increase across the Delta, with a few showers possible into Tuesday afternoon. Upper ridging will strengthen over the area on Tuesday, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s across the Golden Triangle area to the mid 70s in the southwest.
102 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday.
Temps were in the low-mid 30s across the region. Overnight lows will cool into the lower 30s. For Today, mid-level heights are expected rise across the region as a trough digs out across the western US and the SE ridge builds. Within the warm air advection scheme, afternoon temperatures will trend warmer with highs mainly in the upper 50s, though southern KY should see temps reach 60. For tonight, mid-level ridging will remain in place but we'll have a bit of isentropic lift spread across the region. While the lower levels will start off rather dry, continued moistening and the associated lift may yield some scattered rain showers over the region tonight. Lows tonight will be milder with lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s over the I-75 corridor.
300 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will prevail today.
358 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Plenty of December sunshine expected, with temperatures beginning an upward trend today, as modified high pressure remains in the vicinity of the eastern Carolinas.
115 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Plenty December sunshine and above normal temperatures expected this week, as modified high pressure remains in the vicinity of the eastern Carolinas.
938 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021 Only minor update this evening was to adjust overnight lows to fall in line with current temperature trends, mainly across SE TX/SW LA where hourly temps are running warmer than forecasted. With winds in the boundary layer staying up enough, along with cloud cover, do not expect radiational fog, and the wind direction more from the east and not southeast, would not expect any sea fog that may form to move onshore, and the low ceilings should be the main aviation concern tonight.
Cooler temperatures for the upcoming work week will bring a return to lowland snow potential. Tonight through Tuesday Night: As our storm system pushes east, snow levels will crash down to the valley floors after the cold front, but models are showing the bulk of the precipitation falling along and ahead of the cold front such that the bulk of the accumulating snow is expected above 3000 feet. Although the core of the trough will be passing through which combined with upslope flow and some instability into the Cascade crest, NE WA Mountains, and ID Panhandle will keep some snow shower activity alive.
Current upper air models show the long wave trough situated over the west coast, with mild ridging over the northern plains and southwest flow aloft.
130 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail through much of the week before a cold front arrives over the weekend. Coastal trough lingers along the west wall of the Gulf Stream and down to just ear of the Melbourne, FL area, along with a thin line of showers, and some thunder off the FL coast.
as a rather deep upper level low (presently offshore the PAC NW) progresses slowly albeit steadily southward. and a pronounced longwave trough amplifies along the length of the Pacific coast.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 42 62 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 35 62 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 58 37 60 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 33 62 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 20.
1054 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021 Ridging aloft will keep the will keep us dry through Tuesday with pleasant December temperatures. WAA really cranks up Tuesday night with much of the area staying above freezing.
146 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 U/L subtropical ridge will persist over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida through the week with above normal heights leading to above normal temperatures.
Therefore, with surface winds still mostly from an easterly direction, widespread sea fog or radiational fog in not expected with the main concern the low ceilings. /issued 938 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021/ Only minor update this evening was to adjust overnight lows to fall in line with current temperature trends, mainly across SE TX/SW LA where hourly temps are running warmer than forecasted.
However an extraordinarily vigorous storm system will begin to develop Tuesday night as a significant trof comes ashore form the Pacific and takes on a negative tilt as it moves inland. Confidence is high in model solutions so have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning Wednesday into Wednesday evening and expanded the headlines to cover all of Nebraska up to the South Dakota border. Anticipate the highest wind gusts will occur after passage of the low and associated cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as colder air rapidly moves in. Will also monitor satellite trends and surface observations closely as the low passes for development of a sting jet that may enhance winds further.
Areas east and north river will mostly remain in the 30s with some locations reaching the low 40s. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected in the near- term with colder temperatures reaching the mid teens tonight in northwestern North Dakota as a cold frontal boundary begins diving through the forecast area. However, still expect to see a widespread swath of a half inch to an inch of snow with the passing cold front Wednesday. Cooler temperatures ranging from around average to moderately below average for this time of year will be the norm. Expect light southerly winds at all TAF sites through most of the period before a passing cold front begins to transition winds to a northwesterly direction tonight.
643 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry and warmer through mid week.
Tonight will be a warmer night again, with min temps ranging from the upper 40s in east MS to the upper 50s in northeast LA and southeast AR.
Delineated patchy fog as freezing patchy fog for areas around and east of I-65 Corridor through early morning hours per surface observations showing several locations at or below freezing presently and expected to remain that way through 9 AM CST.
904 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry and warmer through mid week.
513 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry and warmer through mid week.
*Cooler to end the week. Cooler air will usher in behind the FROPA and we will see highs return to closer to normal.
WV imagery shows a potent upper-level trough just off the west coast, and a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, the west coast trough will move onshore Tuesday, and traverse to the Four Corners by around 12Z Wednesday. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will induce a westerly downslope warming component to surface winds Wednesday, resulting in near-record highs resembling more mid-October rather than mid-December. As the upper trough approaches, sky cover will diminish over the northwest half of the CWA, and the NAM12 develops a fairly decent mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes during the day Wednesday. We've expanded the High Wind Watch temporally based on latest models.
633 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Plenty of December sunshine expected, with temperatures beginning an upward trend today, as modified high pressure remains in the vicinity of the eastern Carolinas.
Areas east and north river will mostly remain in the 30s with some locations reaching the low 40s. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected in the near- term with colder temperatures reaching the mid teens tonight in northwestern North Dakota as a cold frontal boundary begins diving through the forecast area. However, still expect to see a widespread swath of a half inch to an inch of snow with the passing cold front Wednesday. Cooler temperatures ranging from around average to moderately below average for this time of year will be the norm.
Dry, quiet weather will continue high pressure. E CONUS ridging will maintain dry weather with moderating temperatures through Tuesday night. Increasing moisture and cloud cover is expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday with increasing precip chance as a warm front propagates northward by Wednesday afternoon.
A strong upper level through of low pressure will continue to dig into the western United States throughout the short term. This will lead to lee troughing across eastern Colorado at the surface. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the low 60s along the I-70 corridor to mid 70s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. The upper level long wave trough will tilt negatively Wednesday as the main piece of energy slides through the area. A cold front at the surface will move through the area Wednesday afternoon.
530 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will prevail today. Light precipitation is possible late tonight into Wednesday associated with a warm front.
Our pocket of dry air, nestled on the southeastern side of the Blue Ridge mountains will remain in place through the short term, with PWATs remaining mostly below 0.
Despite skies becoming overcast by afternoon, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the middle 50s.
911 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Plenty of December sunshine expected, with temperatures beginning an upward trend today, as modified high pressure remains in the vicinity of the eastern Carolinas.
South winds today wl cont to bring warmer and more humid air into AR.
A potent low pressure system is set to move across Arizona later this afternoon through midday Wednesday. 75 inches of liquid equivalent is expected from this storm with the higher amounts occurring in the upslope areas along and southwest of a Happy Jack to Flagstaff to Grand Canyon line. This means the potential for blowing snow especially at the higher elevations. Troughing will remain over Arizona.
304 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict broad upper trough pushing onshore across the West Coast. 8z surface analysis shows a pressure trough from SE MT arching southeastward into eastern WY. The aforementioned trough will continue pivot across the western US today into Wednesday, with northern and southern stream waves. The northern stream trough axis will slowly push across south-central Saskatchewan and Manitoba late Wednesday. The southern stream trough will dig into the southwestern US later today, ejecting into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest by mid-day Wednesday.
412 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict broad upper trough pushing onshore across the West Coast. 8z surface analysis shows a pressure trough from SE MT arching southeastward into eastern WY. The aforementioned trough will continue pivot across the western US today into Wednesday, with northern and southern stream waves. The northern stream trough axis will slowly push across south-central Saskatchewan and Manitoba late Wednesday. The southern stream trough will dig into the southwestern US later today, ejecting into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest by mid-day Wednesday.
With temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s, some patchy freezing fog has been noted. Overall it's not expansive enough, nor dense enough to warrant any fog or freezing fog advisories at this time. Upper ridging will traverse the TN valley through the period as a deep trough digs over the Rockies. Lack of clouds combined with high pressure aloft will mean temperatures rising to above normal values this afternoon. Increasing southerly flow and high clouds will mean slightly warmer temperatures tonight and less chance for fog.
Water vapor imagery places a weak, mid to upper level short wave over northern Florida, which has displaced the mean layer ridging over the Western Caribbean to the west.
The atmospheric conditions on the east coast of the peninsula can serve as a proxy for what sort of environment may exist in our area later today in the low-levels. This is all contingent upon how quickly the low-level clouds clear out, however. With a little bit of upper- level support from the trough to add just enough forcing for ascent, we've got all the ingredients to support low-topped showers working into our area from east to west this afternoon. High pressure continues to hold over the region today and Wednesday with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures.
A cold front will pass through the area today and tonight, bringing accumulating snow to most of the region followed by slightly below normal temperatures.
Delineated patchy fog as freezing patchy fog for areas around and east of I-65 Corridor through early morning hours per surface observations showing several locations at or below freezing presently and expected to remain that way through 9 AM CST. High pressure will remain in control through the taf cycle with the center of the high moving off to the east.
206 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 A cold front will pass through the area today and tonight, bringing accumulating snow to most of the region followed by slightly below normal temperatures.
455 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 Upper trof will move across the west coast today, with southwest flow providing another mild day for eastern Montana. As the trof advances toward the northern Rockies, a lee side low develops and pushes east this afternoon and evening. Cold air filters into the region behind the system, and given the timing in the profiles, could be a little freezing rain before the midlevels cool enough for snow. Any freezing rain should be very brief and light. Temperatures will continue to fall through Wednesday with the upper trof moving into the plains.
Highs will reach the lower 60s for most locations with light SSE winds.
/issued 146 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021/ U/L subtropical ridge will persist over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida through the week with above normal heights leading to above normal temperatures.
356 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail through much of the week before a cold front arrives over the weekend. For the rest of the afternoon, high pressure will prevail across the region as a coastal trough remains offshore. With enhanced moisture from the trough, cloud cover will remain the trickiest part of the forecast going into the overnight.
Upper level northwest flow today will transition to southwest on Wednesday as an upper level ridge over the western Gulf into the lower Mississippi River Valley become oriented from southwest to northeast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 70s.
1011 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 A cold front will pass through the area today and tonight, bringing accumulating snow to most of the region followed by slightly below normal temperatures.
1005 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict broad upper trough pushing onshore across the West Coast. 8z surface analysis shows a pressure trough from SE MT arching southeastward into eastern WY. The aforementioned trough will continue pivot across the western US today into Wednesday, with northern and southern stream waves. The northern stream trough axis will slowly push across south-central Saskatchewan and Manitoba late Wednesday. The southern stream trough will dig into the southwestern US later today, ejecting into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest by mid-day Wednesday.
240 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure will build over the region through the middle of the week, with dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. The high will shift offshore late in the week and the developing southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise well above normal late in the week into the early weekend.
226 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth through the weekend, around a 588dm 500mb height ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will be most amplified into the lower MS River valley tonight, with mild temperatures and moderate humidity prevailing. An upper level low will lift from the 4-corners through the central plains on Wednesday, suppressing the ridge and exposing the Midsouth to stronger southwesterly flow aloft.
1221 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Plenty of December sunshine expected, with temperatures beginning an upward trend today, as modified high pressure remains in the vicinity of the eastern Carolinas.
115 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure will build over the region through the middle of the week, with dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. The high will shift offshore late in the week and the developing southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise well above normal late in the week into the early weekend.
The associated cold front will drop into northeast Oklahoma Wednesday evening with showers and storms developing in the vicinity of the front as the cap weakens.
247 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 Surface and upper high pressure ridging will prevail through Wednesday across the area.
This Tuesday afternoon, readings were in the low to mid 60s thanks to south winds and a strengthening upper level ridge across the central and eastern states. Daytime highs will climb well into the 60s to near 70, and overnight lows will be much warmer than the past couple of nights.
229 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 A ridge axis extending into the southeast U.
The Lower Keys have remained mostly dry today, with the Middle Keys only having seen precipitation early this morning. The aforementioned high pressure will slowly move into the western North Atlantic over the next few days.
With a bit more sunshine and easterly winds (as opposed to northeasterly today), highs will rise into the lower to middle 70s for most areas, possibly the upper 70s in Dixie County.
106 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will prevail today. Light precipitation is possible late tonight into Wednesday associated with a warm front.
332 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure moves east of the area tomorrow, with a warm frontal passage Wednesday night bringing our next chance of rain showers.
1022 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will prevail today. Light precipitation is possible late tonight into Wednesday associated with a warm front.
However, as upper- level ridging settles in tomorrow, this is likely to minimize rain chances for the latter part of the work week. The subtropical ridge axis intensity is a key player here, and often does not like to give up control so easily once dug in like now.
Hourly temps were running cooler than forecast so updated grids to match up with latest obs. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 40 62 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 34 62 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 35 60 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 32 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Discussion: High pressure to our south shifts east overnight and will result in a return of southerly flow across the region. I don't anticipate much fog overnight due to the warmer temperatures. Tomorrow, high pressure shifts further east and sets up off the coast of the Carolinas. This is due to an upper trough making its way into the central Great Plains. We may see some high clouds push in from the west, due to the approaching trough, but we will still see a good bit of sunshine. High temps will be in the lower 60s, which is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
1119 AM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure will build over the region through the middle of the week, with dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. The high will shift offshore late in the week and the developing southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise well above normal late in the week into the early weekend.
Hourly temps were running cooler than forecast so updated grids to match up with latest obs. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 62 48 67 55 / 0 0 0 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 62 44 67 55 / 0 0 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 35 60 44 65 55 / 0 0 0 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 60 37 64 49 / 0 0 0 10 40.
Otherwise, the low clouds that start the day are expected to clear out a little faster than they have today, resulting in high temperatures being a few degrees warmer.
252 PM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 A sharp cold front pushed through the area today, brining much colder temperatures to the North-Central Plains.
However, only a few very small showers are now being detected by radar, mainly in the Florida Straits well south of the lower Keys. The lower level moisture should be sufficient for brief small showers to develop along convergence lines transiting the islands and nearshore waters.
A weak inverted trough with its axis just off the east central FL coast will remain in place through tonight.
638 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail through much of the week before a cold front arrives over the weekend. The sfc pattern will feature ridging high pressure across eastern SC and GA with a broad trough near the coast. Temperatures appear on track to reach the low 40s inland to near 50 along the coast.
231 PM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 An Arctic cold front was draped from far northwest Valley County to near Saco to the Little Rockies as of 2 PM MST. There could also be a little freezing rain before the midlevels cool enough for all snow, but any freezing rain should be very brief and light.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night as a cold front pushes through the area. Behind this band of showers, expect primarily dry conditions but warm air advection will continue to help saturate the column, especially the low levels, and couldn't rule out some patchy drizzle at times, especially late tonight. Meanwhile, temperatures are in the lower to mid 50s currently and will hold steady or warm slightly overnight in response to the strengthening southerly flow and warm advection.