Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, high pressure building into the area will lead to warm and generally rain free weather into the weekend. 500 mb height rises are expected tonight as the center of an eastern Conus ridge initially east of the area retrogrades west into the Appalachians. Mid and upper level ridging initially centered across the Appalachians will retrograde west and become centered over the lower OH Valley by late Thursday.
This portends a solid trend towards even warmer afternoon highs (mid 80s) and continued fair, dry weather. Luckily, surface dew points will be low enough that it should be a relatively comfortable afternoon heat, with a nightly break from the heat to cooler near normal overnight lows (lower-mid 50s). For sensible weather, the main forecast challenge will be temperatures and overnight valley fog, which should become less of an issue with time as temperatures generally warm over time while daily dew points remain generally level in the low to mid 50s.
244 PM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms persist across the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming late this afternoon. Chances for strong/severe storms should increase Thursday with a deepening upper-level trough over the western CONUS.
318 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 A sharp ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest right over the state today leading to virtually cloud-free skies, light wind and low humidity.
A ridge building in from the east will exert more and more influence on the Midsouth over the next few days.
The upper level trough will move northward tonight and begin moving away from the region. Farther to the north and west we have not seen the high totals and think flooding in not as likely. As the upper trough continues to move away from the area there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.
It will shift slowly eastward through the day today, mostly over the higher terrain of southwest Idaho. Winds across Eastern Oregon become north to northwest 15 to 25 kts as the upper low drops along the NV/CA border after 20/00z.
Mid afternoon surface analysis still showed a 4-5mb pressure gradient across our CWA from high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Thursday our CWA will still be between upper level troughing to the west and ridging surface and aloft to the east. The ridging surface and aloft will strengthen and become the more dominant feature. Temperatures will top out Thursday a few degrees warmer than this afternoon as well.
An Upper level low/trough was centered over northeast New Mexico earlier this Wednesday morning based on UA observations and WV loop. Models remain in good agreement today with this upper low/trough weakening as it slowly lifts east northeast over the next 24 hours across western Kansas and the Panhandle of Texas/Oklahoma. Severe weather is not expected from these storms but much like last night isolated heavy rainfall will be possible, especially east of a Garden City to Liberal line given the high precipitable water values. As the upper level trough moves towards Nebraska during the day on Thursday the skies will begin to clear.
While a deep trough builds over the western CONUS, a strong ridge of subtropical high pressure will build over the eastern CONUS. Overnight low temperatures tonight (and for the next several days) will be in the low to mid 60s (10 to 15 degrees above average) due to the increased moisture and cloud cover. Chances for rain and thunderstorms tomorrow will be dependent on the path the upper level low takes across the central CONUS. Currently located over northern TX, the low is expected to be absorbed into the upper level flow and move northeastward across Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa.
1132 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 A sharp ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest right over the state today leading to virtually cloud-free skies, light wind and low humidity.
High pressure continues to be the name of the game around these parts as a rather impressive upper ridge is firmly planted over the southeast. As the day moves on, the ridge will slowly drift westward and nose into our area which should provide enough subsidence to keep coverage to a minimum and eventually shut off the rain all together. The main thing will be the rather impressive and deep pressure gradient between the strengthening high and lifting trough. Highs tomorrow will probably be about the same as today with highs in the low to mid 80s. A few upper 80s could be possible over the far northeastern parts of the area where cloud cover will be limited and they are more situated under the strengthening ridge.
1213 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 Throughout today, a mid-level convectively induced perturbation is anticipated to traverse the eastern Central Plains as it navigates upper-level southerly flow between a building upper-level ridge positioned across the Southeast to Great Lakes and an upper-level trough near the front range of the Rocky Mountains. Although mid- level height rises tied to the building ridge will likely act to suppress much of the lift ahead of the mid-level perturbation, modest daytime instability may aid in development of isolated to widely scattered showers by late morning into the afternoon, mostly in central and northeastern MO. As with today, the highest chances of precip will be across central and northeastern MO, where instability will be greatest. Therefore, high temps on Thursday will be warmer and slightly above average.
The current upper level low that is over the Texas Panhandle is expected to lift and weaken tomorrow as it rejoins the main flow aloft.
Any area with extensive clouds and precipitation will likely struggle to reach lower 70s, while areas with less clouds and minimal/no precipitation could reach the lower 80s.
258 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 After quite the cool and damp morning across the South Plains, temperatures have quickly rebounded into the lower 70s. The upper low which has been lingering to our west for several days now will finally begin to eject to the east today as a much larger upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Analysis places the low center over the TX/OK panhandles this afternoon, and water vapor imagery depicts another piece of upper energy rotating around the back side of the low roughly parallel to the CO Front Range. Therefore, a risk of severe weather exists with convection today, as instability is still present due to the positioning of the upper low and the enhancement of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Another area of focus is in the southwest portion of the area ahead of convection near weakening closed mid-upper low seen in water vapor earlier. This would most likely be across roughly the eastern third of our area, where we have the highest precipitation probabilities.
Even warmer weather expected tomorrow and of which persist through the weekend.
118 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure dominates the local weather into the weekend.
346 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 The upper low situated over the TX panhandle region continues to fill and transition into an open wave as it gradually lifts northeast into the central Plains. The main Westerlies remain mainly across the northern tier of the CONUS with an amplified ridge into eastern Canada while a Pacific trough is digging into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow over the Intermountain West into the Dakotas. Dry air through a depth of the lower atmosphere over the region has been another factor today that has limited more coverage of precipitation. As high pressure is slow to expand from the east, still can't rule out more rain chances into the day tomorrow.
Light showers will continue across much of the Midsouth this afternoon, likely shifting over western areas late this evening and overnight as high pressure builds in from the East, Abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures in check, expect afternoon highs around 80. The Mid-South remains on the western periphery of an upper level ridge axis stretching from the Great Lakes Region south into the Southeast United States.
Otherwise, high pressure building into the area and southerly flow lead to warm and mainly dry conditions into the weekend. Mid-level ridging begins to retrograde west into the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday with several degrees of warming at H7.
1104 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this morning shows a deep layer mean ridge extending northward from the western Caribbean Sea, across the Florida Peninsula, and northward all the way to Hudson Bay. This ridge supports a rather expansive, lower-tropospheric anticyclone over the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. Meanwhile, a deep trough extending southward from the southern Plains to old Mexico is supporting a large region of cyclonic flow across the central/western Gulf of Mexico, with embedded, migratory cyclonic vorticity maxima. anticyclone. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures near 70F.
As the rain exits, a strong upper level ridge will begin to strengthen across the area with a LLJ stretching from Louisiana up into the Upper Midwest. Mid to high level clouds are expected to persist across the area tonight which will help keep temperatures mild with lows expected to drop into the low to mid 60s. As the high pressure builds, those surface gradients will decrease which should bring an end to the stronger wind gusts by midnight tonight.
Huge area of high pressure continues to be stalled across the east to southeast part of the CONUS and placing the forecast area with the southerly to southwest flow and allowing a good fetch of moisture from the Gulf to stream into the region tonight. Plus, the shear remains weak in the low levels and unidirectional throughout the column as well as very weak low-level lapse rates.
206 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure dominates the local weather into the weekend.
1253 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure to the east will continue a southerly flow through the TAF period. Deeper moisture producing showers will continue to circumnavigate SE Michigan around this high.
405 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 Upper ridge building over the region through the end of the week. Upper level ridge building over the central Appalachians will slowly retrograde westward over the next 36 hours. That being said, POPs in the forecast for this potential are on the low side as convection will be fighting some dry air in the mid levels. Given the increasing heights aloft with the upper ridge continuing to build, temperatures will continue their upward swing with upper 80s making an appearance in northwest Ohio.
Water vapor imagery reveals Gulf moisture advecting in across the Southern Plains and wrapping around the low over the Panhandles. If anything, the low level moisture tonight may lead to our more impactful weather being the low level clouds and fog potential.
136 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
Thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon, with the highest chances at KCDS. An upper level low currently over northeastern New Mexico will slowly move into the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and then into southwestern Kansas this evening. With the proximity of the low to the region, we will be under strongly meridional flow aloft. Additionally, a short wave will be rotating around the base of the trough this afternoon. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler today with expected cloud cover. Deep layer shear will also be a bit weaker with the close proximity to the upper low. Weak upper level ridging moves over the area as the upper low responsible for our recent rain showers and thunderstorms pulls our of the area and weakens.
111 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 A sharp ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest right over the state today leading to virtually cloud-free skies, light wind and low humidity.
206 PM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Water vapor shows upper low digging along the west coast with low ejecting out of the southern Rockies. At the surface, cold front that moved through early this morning has become nearly stationary from near KIEN to KPHP. Thermal ridge builds overhead on Thursday for likely the warmest day of the week, with widespread highs well into the 80s. Cold front will advance into northeast WY during the afternoon. However, closer to the cold front from northeast WY into the Black Hills, storms should fire by mid afternoon with some severe storms possible.
Thursday into Thursday evening, the deep closed low will become centered over Oregon into nw Nevada. With an upper ridge centered over the southeastern U.
A few slightly stronger thunderstorms have developed near the James River Valley but the environment does not support much more than brief heavy downpours and a little lightning, especially with a freezing level around 12000 feet AGL.
1252 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level trough will settle across the area this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, highs in the 70s & 80s this afternoon and lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
225 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure builds through the end of the week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions. High pressure begins to shift west this weekend with precipitation chances returning.
201 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure dominates the local weather into the weekend.
Otherwise, high pressure building into the area and southerly flow lead to warm and mainly dry conditions into the weekend. With this update, adjusted pops to keep the southeastern sections of the area nearer to the center of the ridge dry. Mid-level ridging begins to retrograde west into the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday with several degrees of warming at H7.
222 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
244 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 Current surface analysis shows expansive area of high pressure centered just off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic region that is beginning to build westward into the OH Valley. Generally quiet weather is expected through the short term as strong ridging builds over the OH Valley. Should see a bit more sunshine tomorrow as compared to today with highs reaching a few degrees warmer into the lower and mid 80s.
This lingering precipitation will be reinforced by an upper-level low propagating out of south TX into north/central TX, ahead of a deep upper-level trough across the Southern Plains. The aforementioned upper level trough will remain with us through the day Thursday, thanks to the upper level ridge to our east forming a pseudo-Omega block.
High pressure remains anchored over the mid/srn Atlantic states this late Wed morning, with a broad SE wind in place across much of the region. This is translating into some cloud cover this morning, as temps rebound into the lower/mid 70s from their earlier lows in the mid/upper 60s. Other than that, quiet/near seasonal wx conditions are expected today, as highs climb mainly into the lower 80s/near 80F.
Deep troughing digging into Texas is helping produce copious amounts of moisture over the southeast coast of Texas that is leading to extensive flooding in that area. A little closer to home, sharp ridging extends northward over the eastern U. Farther out into the Atlantic, troughing extends from near Nova Scotia southward to the east of Bermuda. A closed upper low will move through the base of this trough over the next few days and is the subject of a non-tropical low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has a 40 percent chance of development out to 5 days. The high pressure slightly retrogrades over the southeast U.
An upper-level composite analysis this morning shows a deep layer mean ridge extending northward from the western Caribbean Sea, across the Florida Peninsula, and northward all the way to Hudson Bay. This ridge supports a rather expansive, lower-tropospheric anticyclone over the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. Meanwhile, a deep trough extending southward from the southern Plains to old Mexico is supporting a large region of cyclonic flow across the central/western Gulf of Mexico, with embedded, migratory cyclonic vorticity maxima. anticyclone. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures near 70F.
211 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 Upper ridge building over the region through the end of the week. Upper level ridge building over the central Appalachians will slowly retrograde westward over the next 36 hours. That being said, POPs in the forecast for this potential are on the low side as convection will be fighting some dry air in the mid levels. Given the increasing heights aloft with the upper ridge continuing to build, temperatures will continue their upward swing with upper 80s making an appearance in northwest Ohio.
1151 AM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Satellite imagery shows just a few low/mid level clouds near the high terrain in the central portions of the forecast area early this morning. The low pressure system to our southeast will continue to slowly move northeast today and become abosorbed into the flow across the plains.
High pressure to the north will persist with dry weather expected for Thursday along with breezy onshore winds.
Satellite imagery shows just a few low/mid level clouds near the high terrain in the central portions of the forecast area early this morning. The low pressure system to our southeast will continue to slowly move northeast today and become abosorbed into the flow across the plains.
1035 AM PDT Wed May 19 2021 An area of low pressure will move over the region today and persist over the Western US through the weekend. The latest visible satellite imagery shows a nice circulation along the WA/OR border where the upper level trough is positioning itself. Cloud cover across central and southern Washington late last night or very early this morning helped to insulate surface temperatures a bit and kept some locations from dropping to or below freezing. The threat for near or sub-freezing temperatures should not be a concern for tonight with additional cloud cover and the cold core aloft shifting to our south, along with some elevated winds.
247 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 18Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Ohio Valley with a storm system in the northern Plains. Although very diffuse, the apparent warm front appears to run from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Dew points were in the 50s across the central and northern Plains with 60s from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Humid conditions will continue with warmer temperatures.
440 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, except where rain cooled, and dewpoint temperatures are in the lower 70s. The large-scale pattern features a robust lower tropospheric anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States and supported by a ridge aloft. Deep cyclonic flow east of a large- scale trough has spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico, with transient cyclonic vorticity maxima inducing episodic forcing for large-scale ascent. anticyclone, where juxtaposition of ingredients for deep, moist convection is most favorable. Another 24-36 hours of cloudier, wetter, and stormier weather is expected before the deep anticyclone over the Southeast shifts westward, bringing in drier and more stable air back to the Keys.
1006 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure remains anchored over the mid/srn Atlantic states this late Wed morning, with a broad SE wind in place across much of the region. This is translating into some cloud cover this morning, as temps rebound into the lower/mid 70s from their earlier lows in the mid/upper 60s. Other than that, quiet/near seasonal wx conditions are expected today, as highs climb mainly into the lower 80s/near 80F.
The main emphasis will very gradually shift to the northwest as the mid/upper anticyclone across the southeastern CONUS amplifies and retrogrades slightly. This would be about 5 degrees warmer than today for most locations.
808 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
Going lows in the low to middle 60s look on track. As the rain exits, a strong upper level ridge will begin to strengthen across the area with a LLJ stretching from Louisiana up into the Upper Midwest. Mid to high level clouds are expected to persist across the area tonight which will help keep temperatures mild with lows expected to drop into the low to mid 60s. As the high pressure builds, those surface gradients will decrease which should bring an end to the stronger wind gusts by midnight tonight.
933 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 A high pressure over the Carolinas tonight will keep a tight pressure gradient towards the FL peninsula and breezy to windy for the next few days.
807 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure building into the area will lead to warm and generally rain free weather into the weekend. 500 mb height rises are expected tonight as the center of an eastern Conus ridge initially east of the area retrogrades west into the Appalachians. Mid and upper level ridging initially centered across the Appalachians will retrograde west and become centered over the lower OH Valley by late Thursday.
/issued 327 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A strong line of thunderstorms, originating in northeast Mexico overnight, pushed through all of Deep South Texas this morning and continues to move through the lower Rio Grande Valley as of 2:30 PM. A pretty significant wake low developed near the coast behind the convection, producing wind gusts to near 50 mph, mainly across the lower RGV and coastal locations. The cooler airmass behind the this morning's convection will keep temperature rather comfortable, with lows forecast to drop into the mid-upper 60s overnight. The mid-level trough axis that brought us today's rain will push eastward tonight and Thursday. Slightly warmer temps expected on Thursday night as cloud cover increases through the night. Anticipate lows reaching the lower 70s.
Made some minor tweaks to hourly temps based on latest observations being just a couple of degrees warmer. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to bring VFR flight rules to all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 87 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 86 58 87 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 86 57 87 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 84 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Dewpoints in the wake of the complex have bottomed into the 50s in the Brush Country to the low 60s along the coast. Otherwise, this stable dome looks to prevail through most/all of tonight even as an upper trough loiters just to our west. Despite the upper trough overhead on Thursday, models are rather insistent in keeping a warm layer aloft that could seriously limit additional rain chances. Pending the upper trough/compact low's behavior on Thursday night, scattered precip may need to be extended farther inland, although ensemble data keeps the trough axis bisecting our CWA from N-S with the most favorable ascent remaining to the east of this axis.
517 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
Current surface analysis shows expansive area of high pressure centered just off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic region that is beginning to build westward into the OH Valley. Generally quiet weather is expected through the short term as strong ridging builds over the OH Valley. Should see a bit more sunshine tomorrow as compared to today with highs reaching a few degrees warmer into the lower and mid 80s.