Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DRY AIR CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AT IAH SOUTHWARD TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST. AT CURRENT PACE THE COLD FRONT REACHES IAH AT 13Z BUT GUIDANCE IS SLOWING IT FURTHER AND MAY NOT REACH HOU UNTIL 21Z. /ISSUED 957 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM NEAR NEW BRAUNFELS TO HUNTSVILLE TO NACOGDOCHES AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING.
Below Average Temperatures Will Continue with A Few Chances of An upper level storm system was currently moving southward down the High Plains Region and Rockies. Temperatures are falling this morning behind a cold front that just passed through.
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL ALABAMA DUE TO WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS OF MOBILE BAY AND MS SOUND. WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE RIDGES.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SCATTERED FLURRY ACTIVITY TODAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. BUT THIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUNDINGS DRYING CONSIDERABLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
PRODUCING AN EVEN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID DAY/NIGHT. COOL SURF TEMPS WILL KEEP BEACHSIDE AREAS A FEW DEGS COOLER. WITH A FEW U50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER RURAL SHELTERED LOCALES. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA MON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES FROM ORLANDO NORTH. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST FL COAST WILL SHIFT E/NE WED WITH WEAK FRONT REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ROBUST MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL THEN DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MELTING SNOW/ICE COVER ALONG WITH WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING IS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG. AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS BELOW FREEZING.
The biggest influence will be the thin layer of high clouds associated with a 100 kt west-to-east oriented subtropical jet on the southern flank of the trough. Temps at 850 mb are progged to warm by 3-4C from yesterday afternoon, which should yield surface temps 5-7F warmer today. We should not see temperatures dipping too far below the freezing mark across the CWA, even in the favored cold spots in low-lying areas and river valleys. Johnson A weak dry cold front will move south into the Big Country early Saturday afternoon with a good pre-frontal warm-up warming afternoon highs ahead of the front south of Interstate 20 into the 70s.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
EVEN AS THE LOW MOVES E INTO NRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. A TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
332 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE CWA WITH THERMAL RIDGE PEAKING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS ABOVE 50F FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
WEAK RIDGING WAS LOCATED FROM PDC. THIS RIDGE WAS MOVING TO THE EAST. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FEEL THAT TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH WARMER. LATEST ECE GUIDANCE WAS ALSO 2-3 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW WITH A FEW COOLER SPOTS IN EAST COLORADO. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING ONTO THE PLAINS TO FLATTEN. THE STRONGER TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER TAKING THE WARMER THAN ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES INTO ACCOUNT. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THERE WILL BE.
TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WILL ADD TO THE MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP DECENTLY TONIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LOW STUFF OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR AT LEAST THIRD WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION SOFTENING IT UP A BIT OUT THERE. AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS ARE GONE AS DRIER AIR DOMINATES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NM INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS N CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WHILE KEEPING A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE LOWER VALLEY.
THIS IDEA WILL BE CARRIED FORWARD RESULTING IN HIGHS TEMP FORECASTS WARMER THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
442 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
346 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A LOOK FROM THE CONUS PERSPECTIVE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR THE KEYS TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE AFOOT DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHICH MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AND WARM UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. MOVING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTN. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS NORTH. A PORTION OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG AND ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS WRN CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS DRY.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE HEELS OF THE SMALLER SYSTEM. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK TROF EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TODAY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA. PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS.
MOST AREAS SAW TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH BACK EAST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE NEXT CONCERN THEN COMES ON SATURDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. /ISSUED 244 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S WERE PREVAILING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE 60S IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESSIVELY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS AT CHA AND TYS BECOMING VFR BY 15Z.
LGT WINDS THRU FRI MRNG WL BCM LGT S/SELY LATER IN THE PD AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT E OF AR.
A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS MANITOBA TO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFT FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKE. OR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED REGION WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIXED PRECIP THEN SOME SNOW FRI INTO SAT. PREFER THE NORTHERN MOST TRACK OF THE LOW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SW. THIS MAY LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BLOWING SNOW THREAT THOUGH FOR ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
1153 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2015 A weak cold front/trof is currently dropping into northwest Illinois, and will exit central and southeast Illinois to the south and east by Friday Morning. A fair amount of sunshine this afternoon along with sw winds 8-14 mph was giving milder temps in the mid 30s to lower 40s (mildest from Jacksonville sw and in southeast IL) Bloomington was cold spot just shy of freezing at 31F. A weak surface trof over southeast parts of WI/IA will pass se through central IL dry tonight with some patches of mid level clouds with more clouds arriving later this evening and overnight ne of I-74. Surface temperatures will be slightly cooler across the CWA tomorrow. but will become much warmer on Saturday with gusty southwest winds across the area.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PASSING FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS ALOFT.
upper ridge axis. as 850-hPa thermal ridging and low-level downslope flow extends into the area. expect most clear skies and slightly warmer conditions with lows falling into the middle to upper 20s. trended overnight numbers a few degrees warmer than guidance. Warm weather to continue right through Friday and Saturday as thermal ridging becomes more pronounced over the area. Models have been very insistent that this feature will drag a cold front across the area on Saturday.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS COOLER (GFS/NAM) WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER (ARW-WRF). THIS RESULTED IN WARMER AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN. AS A RESULT, HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS 60-66F FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A WARMER SOLUTION DOESN'T SEEM TOTALLY UNREASONABLE RIGHT NOW, PARTICULARLY SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT THE MORE IDEAL DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH SEEMS TO BE A "WARM WIND" THROUGH MIXING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE MORE "MILD" SIDE WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 30S AS WINDS PROBABLY WILL OFFSET THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
I have boosted the highs from the previous forecast and this still may not be enough.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z EVERYWHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN AREAS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WARMER AREAS, BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
/ISSUED 334 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015/ SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LED TO A WARMER DAY TODAY WHERE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED FOR FRIDAY AS LEE TROUGHING INDUCING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING MAINLY OVER S MIDDLE TN AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER N AL--SOME CLOSE TO RIVERS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED FREEZING FOG ALONG RIVERS, LAKES AND VALLEYS, AND PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.
AND SATURDAY EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. RETURN WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COLD SURFACE TONIGHT ITO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP A VERY LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THEN MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN A INITIALLY COLDER DRIER AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGES. TEMPS STARTING OUT MILD THIS MORNING BUT ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AND PRODUCE A HEALTHY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT.
252 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING IS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. VALLEYS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH RIDGES NEAR THE 30 DEGREE MARK. THE INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY FROM THE ESCARPMENT WEST AND ON THE HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST KY.
BROAD H5 RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS OUTCOME WILL GIVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES AND TRAVERSE THE CWA THRU 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
Saturday night an H5 trough will push a cold front across the region. No major temperature changes are expected as the split flow is not expected to phase into a high-amplitude ridge or trough.
WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S. NEAR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL EVEN WARMER ESPECIALLY AFTER THE COLD CONDITIONS WE HAVE ENDURED LATELY.
CONTINUED BENIGN PATTERN IN SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN CANADA/LWR GRTLKS TROF ROTATING THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH PROVIDING BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING INTO WRN GRTLKS BY F36. THOUGH RELAXATION OF THERMAL ADVECTION TO SLOW BY LATE AFTN WITH APPROACH OF RIDGE/COL. A SHARPENING/COOLER 925MB THERMAL GRADIENT THROUGH SRN LWR MI TO SWRN CWA SUGGEST MUCH SMALLER RISES.
214 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY.
301 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2015 Moderating temps begins today as high pressure anchors the surface and upper heights rebound.
RECENT PRECIPITATION/WET GROUND ALONG WITH CLEARING SKY AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS UNTIL 14Z.
342 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY.
318 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2015 Southwest winds will become more established across the region today as surface lee troughing strengthens and extends south through eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Meanwhile, an upper trough currently entering the Pac NW will dive SE through the Central Plains Saturday, sending a dry cold front through the CWA Saturday night.
A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING UNTIL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SOME OF WHICH ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 30S. SERIES OF LEE SIDE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING SOUTH TOWARD THE IA MN BORDER. BY 00Z SATURDAY EXPECT THAT WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE IAMN BORDER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR BURLINGTON WITH JUST OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS STILL IN THE COOLER AIRMASS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION HAS FLATTENED THIS EVE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES ID OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE ENTERING THE PACNW. NEW 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW THE PACNW TROF CLIPPING NRN UT TOMORROW AFTN/EVE. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE CACHE VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SALT FLATS WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AFTN BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER LAYER FRI NIGHT DILUTING AND PARTIALLY EVACUATING THE EXISTING AIRMASS.
315 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BITTER COLD AND BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
328 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
858 PM PST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
AND WE HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH COLD ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE FIRST PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ROBBING THE LOWER CLOUDS OF ICE CRYSTALS. WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES. IT TAKES ALL DAY FOR THE REAL COLD AIR TO REACH THE RIDGES. WHICH WOULD INHIBIT AN OPTIMAL SITUATION FOR SNOW SHOWER FORMATION IN THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG FOR THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. WET GROUND AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 57 35 47 / 0 0 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 27 55 36 45 / 0 0 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 28 54 36 45 / 0 0 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 23 53 29 44 / 0 0 10 40.
Ridge of high pressure currently running across the TN Valley into Eastern KY.
WITH POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN QUICKLY RETURN WITH ATLANTIC COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD LATER IN WEEKEND MAY BRING A FEW UPPER LVL CLOUDS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.
348 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SURFACE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS IOWA TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH HEATING WITH READINGS LIKELY ONLY REACHING FREEZING BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS TRENDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHER PLAIN STATES. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND BOUNDARY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH.
423 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
254 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRESENT PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS AS THE TOP LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE ICE IN THE CLOUDS BUT THE SEPARATION FROM THE LOWER SATURATED LAYER WILL BE TOO FAR TO ALLOW A SEEDER/FEEDER MECHANISM TO WORK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOWER SATURATED LAYER WITHOUT ICE MAKING FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAVING FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTIONED WITH BOTH OF THESE WAVES. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
303 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TIGHT LEE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BUT A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF LIGHT QPF IN THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTERED ON THE GORE/PARK/RABBITEARS RANGES FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN OUT OF THE MTNS. COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER EXPOSED AREAS SUCH AS AROUND AKRON. STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION AND DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER BY 4-5 DEG C. JET AND COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL BE ZONAL TODAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WE WILL LIE WITHIN A LARGE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FOG POTENTIAL AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG OR FREEZING FOG. WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN ADVECTING A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
At the surface, high pressure will move east tonight away from the area and be replaced by a surface lee trough. The next upper level trough is still forecast to move across the northern tier of states this weekend. This trough will drop a surface cold front into the region Saturday night.