Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will be east placing the region in southerly low level flow. Upper ridging will keep the region dry (until late tonight).
A broad area of high pressure over northwest Ontario will gradually move towards eastern Ontario and lower Great Lakes as the work week comes to an end. Southerly flow develops at low/mid levels Friday as a warm front moves in from the west bringing a chance for rain showers late in the day. On the synoptic scale a broad mid-level ridge will track from the Rockies across the Great Plains today resulting in an area of high pressure over northwest Ontario to deepen. By Friday morning this warm front will stretch from the central Great Plains as far north as northern Ontario, moving east through the weekend towards the Upper Great Lakes. As the warm front approaches clouds will increase across the Northland during the day Friday with breezy southerly winds developing.
High pressure returns Friday on into the weekend resulting in sunny and warmer conditions. By late this evening all storms will have ended as strong high pressure begins to build in from the west. Long range models continue to be consistent in keeping a high pressure system over Nevada. The high pressure system will lead to dry and hot conditions for the Labor Day weekend. The heat will be above sonormal for this time year with highs in the mid to upper 90s with the hottest valleys reaching the low 100s.
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Cooler air arrives behind a cold front for Friday. Cold front continues to drop across the forecast area, with most showers along and behind the boundary.
1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 MESOSCALE UPDATE and 18Z TAF Discussion The post-tropical center of Harvey was located across west-central Mississippi with a synoptic scale warm front analyzed from the center of the circulation east across Mississippi to near Meridian and it extended southeast into interior southwest Alabama and extended further east to near the Alabama/Florida state line.
117 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A cold front has passed to the south of the area bringing about northeasterly flow around 12 knots this afternoon. Flow will veer a bit more easterly overnight as high pressure builds in from Canada.
616 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Cooler air arrives behind a cold front for Friday. The cold front has advanced southeastward through much of the area through the late afternoon hours and has cleared Latrobe, Wheeling, and Zanesville recently.
This afternoon high pressure was centered over the upper Great Lakes. Flow off this high lead to a back door cold front moving into the area. Drier air and cooler temperatures are advecting into the area, leading to a beautiful Thursday. This flow and high pressure will be the primary weather producers through the short term. Convergence along the cold front will lead to stratus clouds and possibly showers and an isolated rumble of thunder. Tonight, clouds should clear and cooler and drier air filters in. The NAM is the lowest with temps near 40 across the far northwest.
An east-west oriented stationary front was located over Iowa and northern Illinois this afternoon that will become a cold front tonight as it moves southeast and eventually becomes caught in the circulation of Harvey. Did generally follow guidance temperatures for tonight and tomorrow, though went above guidance over the southern CWA tomorrow where I expect there to be enough sun for highs to be warmer.
Strong high pressure to our west and the remnant circulation of Harvey to our east will maintain north to northeasterly flow across the area today, although winds speeds will be lighter. Skies will be sunny again today, with temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with highs in the upper 80s. Pleasant conditions are expected tonight, with clear skies, light winds and lows mainly in the lower 60s.
A weak cold front pushed into northeast Iowa and northern Illinois during the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing clouds. A weak back door cold front is dropping south through the forecast area early this morning, accompanied by a northeast breeze and increasing clouds. Have favored the cooler end of temperature guidance, with lows expected in the mid 40s to mid 50s, about 10 degrees below normal for the date. With surface ridging in place Generally nice weekend in store.
The last upper trough will move east across Utah tonight. High pressure aloft building into Utah from the west will bring warmer and drier air to most of the state for the weekend.
/Issued 316 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017/ Pretty quiet weather is expected across North and Central Texas during the next couple of days as high pressure centered to our northwest dominates the region in the wake of exiting Tropical Depression Harvey.
An area of low pressure and upper level trough will approach the region today from the west. While the upper level trough and surface front will pass through the region tonight, several CAMS suggest pre-frontal storms developing in our western CWA later this afternoon.
340 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 (Tonight and Friday) Tranquil weather will continue across our area tonight and Friday, with weak ridging aloft over the southern Rockies into west and southwest Texas. With mostly sunny skies and slightly higher 850mb temperatures on Friday, highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today and mostly in the lower 90s.
300 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Stubborn cloud cover has lingered all day across southwestern/western MN as moisture pooled in the low levels and lead to dense fog in that area this morning. There's quite a difference in low level moisture across the forecast area with dew points this afternoon in the mid 60s across western MN and down into the low to mid 40s across parts of west central WI. Capped pops at 30% at the highest.
Convection should be slow to dissipate overnight with the passage of the trough axis, but expect to see gradually decreasing coverages through the night. The surface cold frontal passage will occur around 12z-15z Fri, likely resulting in an increase in winds over the high plains, especially in our northeastern zones.
An upper trough which pushed through Norcal earlier today will track west toward the Great Basin tonight and Friday. Some mid level moisture was pulled up front Socal ahead of the trough brushed the Kern County Mountains and Deserts with some showers this morning and is now pushing into southern NV.
Strong ridge then sets up again across the western CONUS with northwest flow over the region.
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 A frontal boundary will drop south through the area this morning into the early afternoon bringing clouds and cooler temperatures. Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s. Brisk easterly winds will develop between high pressure building into the Great lakes and low pressure tracking into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday.
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 High pressure to the east is enabling some stratus to advect northwest into areas along and east of I-29. This stratus is likely to stay in place until the advancing low pressure system and cold front push it out on Friday.
148 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 The upper level ridge across the Swrn U. A second area of showers of thunderstorms may fire off the Laramie Range this afternoon followed by a third area of thunderstorms associated with a upper level trof over Oregon. Given the weak focus at the lower levels, POPs are limited to 30 percent for this portion of the forecast. The upper level ridge will build back across the western US by Friday evening.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across south central Texas through the short term portion of the forecast period. Some drier air north of Highway 90 will result is overnight lows in the lower 60s across the Hill country.
Overnight lows (tonight and Friday night) begin to creep up as dew points rise while just one or two degrees lower on the highs Friday as winds turn southeast off of the relatively cooler gulf.
Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. Highs should warm into the lower to middle 90s Saturday afternoon with heat index values around 100 to 106 degrees. A cold front will then slide south into northern Missouri Saturday evening.
Saturday and beyond, zonal flow aloft will give way to a building upper level ridge, resulting in building heat and drying conditions throughout the area.
This will push a cold front across the CWA as well as set off some widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly later this evening into Saturday morning. Max temps will be about 10-15 degrees cooler Saturday, especially over the plains with a bit of a breezy northwesterly wind.
Low temperatures will mainly be in the lower to middle 60s, a few cooler spots in northeast Colorado. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 80s in northeast Colorado behind the front to the upper 90s south of Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas ahead of the front.
350 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Desert SW upper ridge slowly building northward across Southern Colorado today, with warm to hot max temps across the entire region. On Sat, ridge begins to flatten as upper trough sharpens over the nrn plains and cold front associated with the trough approaches the area during the afternoon. Most models suggest fropa around 00z or later on the plains, which will keep srn CO hot and dry for another day, with max temps perhaps a degf or two warmer than Fri as mixing will increase slightly ahead of the front.
especially if the low clouds can hang in for bit this morning. Better chances for significant rain in the first half of the period as broad upper- level troughing dominates the eastern U.
expect a fairly strong cold front to race south across the local area reaching the NE/KS state line near 12Z. expect significantly cooler temperatures across the area tomorrow afternoon. Small chances for showers or thunderstorms will exist into the evening hours Saturday behind the aforementioned cold front.
303 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 While an earlier cloud line over the middle and upper Keys has been disrupted by convective outflows and the dominating south Florida seabreeze circulation, the light southwest winds above the surface have allowed the lower Keys cloud line to mature. Tonight through Saturday night, the general trend will be to reestablish the lower tropospheric ridging across the western Atlantic through Florida, with lowering pressures in the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula. Aloft, an upper trough only slowly translates from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, trailing back into the western Gulf.
236 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Increasing areal coverage for rain showers and thunderstorms, especially during the day Saturday, along with a wind advisory far southwest ND Saturday are the highlights in the short term period. Low level convergence will also be enhanced as a cold front slides from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba tonight, into central ND Saturday. Expect a much cooler day with highs in the 60s north to lower 70s far south.
Cool and wet period coming to an end today with warmer and drier weather to settle in for the weekend.
Mid-level trough remains over the eastern CONUS Friday as high pressure at the surface continues to build into the central Gulf from the western Atlantic.
A weak surface trof was located from the tip of the Arrowhead to McGregor. A west southwest flow was occurring ahead of the trof and northwest behind it. Temps had warmed into the 60s over the Borderland, to the lower 70s elsewhere. A major upper level trough was situated across south central Canada, while our CWA remained under the influence of the upper level trough. The rather benign features of today will gradually give way to an amplifying upper level trough on Saturday. The Northland can expect a period of cooler than normal weather the second half of the weekend through nearly the first half of the upcoming week. There will be an area of low pressure over Ontario by Saturday evening. Showers and storms are possible with the passage and in the wake of a cold front.
A strong cold front will approach from the north Saturday evening and storms should fire north of the area and ooze south. Saturday evening and overnight will feature the highest chances for these severe storms.
Dry and warmer air set to dominate the weather in Southeast Idaho the next several days.
Mostly cloudy skies today should keep temps cooler than expected, mainly in north central SD. While we may see taller convection, with more CAPE in the hail growth zone, a cooler/more humid environment will also limit the severe weather threat.
High pressure ridge over the southeast U. Low pressure moving into the central plains will track across the upper midwest and Great lakes over the weekend.
Upper ridge is suppressing any thought of convection across the remainder of our region attm. Not seeing much in the way of upstream disturbances embedded in northwest flow aloft as has been the case the last couple nights that could effect us late tonight or during the day Saturday so with a strengthening upper level ridge axis across our region, kept pops out of the forecast for Saturday.
A strong thermal ridge in the region will continue to allow hot temperatures to dominate this afternoon. A trough will be moving through the CWA this afternoon and will allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. During the afternoon, a cold front will begin to approach the CWA.
/issued 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/ The region remains under the influence of the upper level ridge as yesterday's temperatures move into the lower 90s most location.
/issued 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The overall pattern will change little today from yesterday, with an upper level high centered in northwestern Mexico, putting our area in weak northwest flow. At the surface, low pressure along the TX/NM border will keep low level flow southerly and warm. The low level thermal ridge will also intensify with 850mb temperatures expected to warm 2-4 degrees Celsius. 700mb temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees, and there doesn't appear to be a well-defined upper level disturbance to aid in convection breaking through the warmer temperatures aloft.
The upper flow starts out zonal today and turns increasingly northwest as the ridge amplifies upstream over the western U. Most of the upper dynamics are expected to stay further north with the best mid to upper level support coming in the form of a weak short wave trough moving across the forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. This upper support lags a few hours behind the passage of a cold front southward through the forecast area Saturday afternoon. Mainly post-frontal showers and thunderstorms are expected late Saturday through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures across the northern sections of the forecast area during the day on Saturday.
However, weak upper ridging will put the clamps on most of the convective development. This will allow a cold front to begin moving our way and by 12z, this feature will be just west of the MS river.
When coupled with fairly deep, balanced shear and marginal turning in the lowest km, a few organized severe storms could develop. A cold front is expected to work through the region on Saturday night, and with 30-35 knots of flow at 925 hpa and decent cold air advection, we are likely underforecasting wind speeds.
1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A low-amplitude, nearly stationary TROF exists over the north- central CONUS early this morning with a well-depicted MCV located over southwestern MO. TES The quasi-stationary upper TROF pattern over the north-central CONUS will continue into Saturday with what is currently anticipated to be a MCS exiting during the late morning and midday.
The 850 mb winds turn more southwesterly, developing a better dry adiabatic heating downslope component, but will be interrupted by an approaching cold front sometime Saturday or Saturday evening.
All joking aside, temperatures this week have been abnormally high and that trend will continue into the weekend as very warm 850 and 700 mb temperatures beneath a ridge of high pressure centered over the desert southwest builds a bit further east. Have not expanded the advisory into the Rolling Plains as forecast temperatures and/or heat index values remain below the higher threshold of 110 there. This will need to be monitored though as dewpoints have held into the lower and mid 60s from Childress to Aspermont this afternoon and need to drop further on Saturday. Of interest this afternoon has been the 'cooling' affects of last evening's wet footprint from storms that has kept temps locally in Plainview, Lubbock, Abernathy and O'Donnell about 5 degrees cooler than neighbors to the west. ridge back some.
Thus with the extensive cloud cover earlier in the day, the high temps did end up being lower than originally forecasted and have lessened them a few degrees. The far east over the higher terrain will have the best chance. For Saturday, brief ridging nosing into eastern Kentucky should keep much of the area dry for Saturday with only a few showers and a storm or two popping over the high terrain during the afternoon.
306 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue overnight ahead of a cold front that will push across Colorado Saturday afternoon. The wind speeds will diminish in most areas this evening, though the high mountains and east slopes may see stronger winds as the flow at mountain top level increases a bit. The front should push across during the afternoon, with cooler temperatures and more moisture behind the front.
Tilly The cold front and associated trough responsible for the morning MCS will slowly move eastward into north central and central Missouri.
A weak upper level trough will dig from the mid Mississippi valley into the lower Mississippi valley today, while low pressure near the surface moves into the southeast. With influence from an upper level trough and forecast PW values in the 1.
300 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A warm front will approach from the west tonight and will slowly push east of the region Saturday through Saturday night.
A well defined upper trof axis was located near the Alabama and Georgia state line. An instability axis extended from the bottom of the trof axis northwestward across south Alabama and into an upstream short wave trof over Arkansas.
This will in turn help push a cold front through the CWA tomorrow.
The lower clouds have finally cleared and several locations have jumped from the low 80 range to the upper 80s in one hour.
306 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 High pressure persists with zonal flow across the southwestern US. As a weak trough passes north of us in Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas on Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly and help to surface stronger wind gusts (20 to 30 mph) across NE Utah and NW Colorado.
The main weather story will be the potential round of severe weather late Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Saturday night, the hi-res models, and to a lesser extent the coarser ones, bring in a decaying line of storms ahead of a cold front late. So here again will keep in the higher rain chances over the northwest, southern Indiana, with a gradient into south central Kentucky.
A cold front will move through the area early in the work week bringing cooler and drier conditions.
As mentioned in the SPC Day One, the better upper level support will be farther north across Nebraska and Iowa, where influence from short wave troughs traversing the zonal flow will occur. Saturday, weak, but potent, 500mb ridging off the Trans Pecos into eastern Oklahoma will result in strong warm air advection off the western high plains. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the lower 100s for most of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Stay Safe! Saturday night, some relief will be on the way, as a short wave trough begins to push eastward across the northern Plains.
302 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A slow moving warm front will keep a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going this afternoon and evening.
Used a blend of the better performing models for max temps, which should be mostly in the lower to middle 80s. Lows should range from the middle to upper 50s northwest to the lower to middle 60s southeast. On Saturday, a weak cold front will shift into the region. Abundant cloud cover should result in slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Some uncertainty remains in how an upstream Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over Missouri will evolve as it approaches the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys.
Surface warm front has pushed northward and as of early this afternoon extended ESE from northwest into east central and southeast IA. A weak low existed across northeast NE with a trof/dryline extending southwestward from it. Lows will fall into the 60s once again with the low/front pushed into southern Iowa.
309 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 High pressure persists with zonal flow across the southwestern US. As a weak trough passes north of us in Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas on Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly and help to surface stronger wind gusts (20 to 30 mph) across NE Utah and NW Colorado.
A weak trough aloft remained over the state but the better instability was mostly east and central GA this afternoon and evening. Saturday should be similar with the remnants of the upper trough in place. Looks like the northwest zones will have the lowest pops for Saturday also.
159 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Upper level analysis shows weak ridging/nearly zonal flow over the northwestern portion of the CONUS, with a 90 kt jet moving over the northern plains.
139 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A slow moving warm front will keep a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going today.
With an upper level trough across the southeast, some of the activity this afternoon could linger longer than normal for summertime tonight. Lows Saturday morning will be in the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s along the coast.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Mexican states of Chihuahua and Sonora tonight and Saturday, then begins to recenter north of the border from New Mexico to California Saturday night. Meanwhile, upper level troughs move east across the Northern Plains and drift west across the central into western Gulf of Mexico. However, cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm moving off the higher terrain to along the Rio Grande.
Also some evidence of a weak middle level trough that could further aid lift. Saturday: Moisture will already be in place and will have a well defined cold front moving through, so chances for storms is greater, and probability is high that they will be severe.
Weak high pressure aloft will prevail over the region tonight through Saturday.
1130 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Broad upper low continues to drift across southern Canada north of Minnesota with near zonal flow from the Pacific Northwest, across the northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains. Models are showing a very weak 700mb trof crossing the area by early afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Lower surface dewpoints and greater stability today has kept convection anchored to the mountains so far, and mainly along the Blue Ridge. Tomorrow, the models agree that afternoon convection will once again favor the higher terrain along the NC border, thanks to a lack of forcing under a weak 700 mb ridge and a midlevel dry layer. A couple of stray showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the high terrain to start the period but other than that we should be dry.
After a break overnight into Saturday morning, a stronger trough will rotate eastward to Minnesota during peak heating mid afternoon. A couple stronger cells are possible, but the low CAPE/shear profiles should limit this potential significantly.
Overnight mins in the low/mid 70s. Prevailing flow will remain out of the W-SW with low level ridge axis to the south and mid/upper trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow becomes more southerly as low level ridge axis begins to drift back northward over the peninsula.