Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
334 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 High pressure slides east of New England today. A cold front crosses New England Friday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight. Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return this weekend as a trough deepens across New England. Mid and upper level ridging will remain in place today, keeping most of the forecast area dry. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over Upstate NY today as a short wave trough and associated cold front moves in from the the west. A period of strong heating appears possible Friday prior to cold frontal passage after any early morning showers or storms move east of the forecast area. Scattered showers will continue Friday night as an upper level trough crosses the forecast area.
Mid-upper ridging is still the dominant feature controlling area wx. Look for it to continue inching our way under the ridge.
412 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Cooler and less humid air will begin to spread across the area today behind a front.
By Thursday, it still looks like we will be making a return to more of a summer time pattern as the upper ridge builds further into the area. The upper ridge over the area will also continue to support the hot and humid conditions.
148 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over Manitoba, with upper ridging over The Rockies. At the surface, low pressure situated over the ND/MB border, with a weak cold front stretching down through northeastern SD to southwestern SD that will slide out of the area this morning. Mostly quiet and warm conditions are expected for the remainder of the week, as the upper ridge slowly slides east into the northern plains region.
With mid level high pressure over the Tennessee Valley, today will be another day with temperature reaching the mid to upper 90s, and sfc dewpoints in the low 70s. Models generally agree that the weakening cold front will stall just to our north later today, keeping the best storm chances just to our north. Storms are expected to grow on the leading edge of the NLLJ as it interacts with a weak surface cold front over the lower Missouri Valley tonight. These storms would then follow the WNW-ESE 850-300mb flow and low level theta-e ridge into the lower and middle Ohio Valley Friday morning. Nice Weekend: Over the weekend an upper trough digging into New England will force the hot air westward into the Plains.
This front will retreat northward as a warm front overnight through Thursday morning, with light east winds trending southeast.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system over Alberta will exit quickly northern Michigan quickly early this morning. This cold front coincides with the western periphery of a ridge to the east and the eastern periphery of a broad upper level trough pushing towards the Great Lakes region. Eastern upper may see some showers redevelop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours as deeper moisture at the base of the aforementioned trough begins to push into the area. Friday, high pressure is building into the region, but very cool air, at 850 mb, is trying to fight the sunshine. The moisture associated with the cooler air thinning out as the dry air upstream in the Canadian Prairies is beginning to mix in. Friday night, The high pressure builds in, and the sky will clear out.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with tight pressure gradient stretching across much of MT, ND, and into parts of northern SD. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southwest MB, drifting to the east-northeast. A fairly quiet pattern and a warming trend will take place late this week, with hot conditions by the weekend, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the plains. Chances for pcpn will be minimal through Friday, but latest medium range models show the ridge starting to drift east of the area over the weekend, with southwesterly flow aloft on the back side starting to creep into the high plains.
Except for Friday's low pops, ridging with rain free and hot conditions will continue to rule.
Today Through Friday Night A ridge of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will wobble into Arkansas today and Friday. Under the ridge, summer heat will continue. On Friday, a weak cold front will approach from the north, and isolated thunderstorms could pop up ahead of the front.
Overall forecast for today looks unchanged as the upper level ridge will hold over southeast U.
There are signs, though, that the upper level ridge may break down a bit later tomorrow which could allow for some showers and a few thunderstorms to come ashore tomorrow afternoon/evening and then again Friday. As we bake beneath the blocking high, daytime temperatures will easily climb into the mid/upper 90s through the end of the week.
1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Broad troughiness to the north will gradually shift east through tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will be cooler but with some wind in place not expecting any stronger radiational cooling, so mostly mid 50s for lows. Thursday night into Friday upper level ridging spreads across the area which will bring a ridge of high pressure through at the surface with increasing east and southeast winds at the surface on Friday.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, an upper-level ridge was over the southeast US while an inverted trough was located over west Texas. The trough, which brought some scattered to broken cloud cover the past two days will move into the southwest US today, while the upper ridge will build back in across the southern Plains. This will result in much less cloud cover and a slightly warmer airmass today. By tonight, winds should diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes and the boundary layer decouples with high pressure moving in.
Temperatures should only fall into the low to mid 70s by tomorrow morning. An upper level ridge covers much of the eastern U. This ridge will start to shift slowly to the west tonight but will remain east of the region. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 70s. On Thursday, the ridge will continue to shift to the west. The ridge will continue to shift west Thursday night with the axis reaching western Arkansas by early Friday morning. A weak cold front will approach the Mid-South from the north on Friday. The cold front will move into the region Friday night. Behind the front, somewhat cooler and drier air move in the region.
A late day cold front will bring showers and storms to the region. A limiting factor will be the very warm air aloft, since the storm development will be ahead of the cold front. Dry, cooler air will filter into the region Friday in the wake of the cold frontal and upper trough passage.
Isolated to scattered convection with best chances across the higher elevations and northeast Tennessee/southwest Virginia. Discussion: The upper ridge continues to sit over the region, but will begin to weaken a bit as a broad upper trough begins to move into the Great Lakes and NE states. Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be mostly isolated and should initiate first today over the higher elevations with the upper ridge and very warm air directly over the forecast area. Once again, the high CAPE, high DCAPE environment gives the potential for a few strong/severe storms, with damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch in diameter the primary threats. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 06-16 99(1936) 98(1936) 94(2015) 96(2018).
1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A weak upper level low can be seen spinning over the southern half of our CWA this afternoon. This low has given the area some slight relief for the southern half of the area from the intense heat we've dealt with over the past week or so by providing lower heights and some scattered cloud cover, although it will not likely result in any precipitation for the area. For tonight, lows should be a few degrees cooler than this morning, dropping into the low to mid 70s in most locations. For Thursday, the weak upper low/trough is expected to drift west/northwest, likely resulting in highs back into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees area-wide, with southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Dew points linger in the lower 70s for the most part, so heat indices will once again rise into the 100-110 range.
Breezy and cooler Thursday into Friday with below normal temperatures.
Heights rise today as high pressure builds into the region from the east. Afternoon highs are expected to range around 5 degrees above normal today, with very warm temperatures expected in the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. Temperatures around 8-14 degrees above normal are expected, with highs 100-110 degrees in the lower elevations and 80-95 degrees in the higher elevations. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for Thursday across the lower elevations of Yavapai and northern Gila, as well as for the Grand Canyon and Lake Powell/Page area. Winds begin to increase again on Thursday, with wind gusts 20-30 mph over the high terrain.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ The upper low that brought a couple days of cloud cover to the area will shift northward towards Oklahoma today while becoming increasingly diffuse. Meanwhile, the southeast CONUS ridge will build westward towards the forecast area with attendant mid-level height rises. Fortunately, aggressive mixing of surface dewpoints into the low 60s and upper 50s will keep heat index values within a couple degrees of ambient temperatures.
(Today and Tonight) Weak upper low is currently evident on water vapor imagery this morning over northwest Texas, bringing a stream of scattered high clouds over most of the area. The cold front that was working toward the far northern portions of the forecast area last night has stalled and is beginning to wash out over southeastern Kansas. Weak upper low will lift northwestward as the upper ridge that has been situated east of the region for the last several days will begin to build back westward today and become centered overhead by this evening.
(Today) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions will continue this Thu, as an upper ridge pattern remains centered near the central TN Valley, while high pressure at the sfc remains layered across much of the SE states. With dew pts remaining in the lower/mid 70s, max heat indices later today will also climb into the 103-108F range for many spots. Upper waves rotating along the eastern fringe of the upper ridge axis may also translate into a few showers/tstms this afternoon.
Upper level ridging can be expected to return by Thursday, with a return to hot and mainly dry weather. Later tonight, this front will return north as a warm front. There is a very small chance of thunderstorms north of the advancing warm front in central Kansas around Hays after 3 am. Upper level ridging and day after day of south winds will lead to an extended heat wave lasting through 26 June and possibly through the remainder of June. Dewpoints will be low along with the deep vertical mixing under the ridge (in the absence of the elevated mixed layer on the southern edge of the westerlies).
Do believe a threat for occasional gusts to 60 MPH will remain possible until at least 00z, when flow aloft should rapidly weaken in response to a building upper-level ridge. Trending warmer & drier for Thursday as upper-level ridging gains control and 700 mb temperatures climb to +14 to +16 deg C. CWA will be under the influence of an upper ridge. Ridge axis shifts east Friday afternoon.
201 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Today: Mid/upper level trough axis rotating into MN early this morning with stronger flow rotating around its base. Have worked overnight lows to the cooler side of guidance or into the mid to upper 50s.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley will migrate westward today allowing for a degree or two increase in daytime temperatures.
An upper low over southern Canada will continue to move east as upper ridging currently over the southeast CONUS spreads to the north and west.
327 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A cold front that moved into central Illinois last night will stall out across the area today, roughly just north of I-70.
The high pressure bubble in the southeast CONUS looks to start shifting back to the west over the next couple days.
Winds are relatively light for the urban corridor but are a bit more gusty in the high country. Expect little change overnight with light winds and lows falling back into the low 50s. Tomorrow will see a ridge begin to build back into the area and we'll see similar conditions as today. Mid-level temperatures are a few degrees warmer so highs should make it back into the low to mid 90s, with low 100s possible for the far eastern plains. Otherwise, dry conditions are likely over the high country like today, with elevated fire weather conditions continuing. High pressure ridge aloft will be building over the central plains while a strong low pressure area deepens over the Pacific Northwest. Initially, on Friday, moisture will be confined mainly to the mountains as the ridge aloft is just barely east of Colorado.
Tonight and Thursday Showers and thunderstorms are currently developing to the west of the cwa, and even in the western cwa, early this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Although these storms are currently not severe, the aforementioned cold front is expected to overcome the capping inversion in place.
Temperatures will again reach the 90s by early afternoon, pushing heat index values in the low 100s across the region, although some uncertainty remains with the degree of cloud cover. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west this evening, bringing the potential for scattered showers and storms, mainly across west- central Missouri. We do have some low-end precipitation chances throughout the day Friday given the moist, unstable airmass and the aforementioned cold front draped over the region. WPC Cluster Analysis continues to indicate upper-level ridging dominating the flow pattern through the forecast period. A slow moving cold front could bring scattered showers and storms to the area overnight, however with the uncertainty of the front's location and how far south these storms will reach, decided to keep storms out of the TAFs.
1208 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front stretches from nwrn MO through sern KS and into nwrn OK.
TODAY: The upper level trough and embedded jet streak associated with yesterday's severe weather has continued advecting east over the Great Lakes overnight. WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEW WEEK: An upper level ridge builds for the latter half of the week into the weekend, providing predominantly clear and dry conditions area wide.
Surface cold front stretched from just south of Chicago to around Macomb and Quincy in west-central IL early this morning. Seasonably strong mid-level, enhanced by a mid-level short wave transiting the southern periphery of a broad upper level trough over northern North America was supplying sufficient deep layer shear (40-50 kts) for storm organization, though storms should tend to decrease in coverage and intensity with time early this morning as the wave moves east and the low level jet veers and weakens. The cold front will sag south of the forecast area by this afternoon, and eventually become nearly stationary over central IL and IN. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm for mid-June, ranging from the upper 80s near the IL/WI line to the low-mid 90s farther south. Ratzer High pressure will drift across the western Great Lakes this weekend.
326 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The cold front that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area last evening and overnight has washed out roughly along and east of the Mississippi River. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach the low/mid 90s along I-80 and the upper 90s south of highway 34. This Evening and Tonight: The washed out cold front and a reinvigorated LLJ may serve as the focus for redevelopment of scattered storms south of highway 34, especially after 9 PM, possibly not until after midnight.
Currently, upper trough axis responsible for last night's precipitation has pushed through the area, with clear skies in its wake. The aforementioned trough axis will continue to translate northeast through tomorrow, with upper ridging quickly beginning to amplify across the Plains. That said, the warmest air aloft will remain off to the south of the area tomorrow, in closer proximity to the ridge axis. Confidence continues to increase in a prolonged heat event, with the expansion of the upper ridge across the central CONUS.
1201 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A weak cold front will dissipate over the area this evening. Hot and dry high pressure will then prevail into late week before a cold front impacts the region early in the weekend. High pressure will return thereafter. High pressure will extend across the area on Thursday. Large scale subsidence under the upper ridge will limit most daytime convection. Low temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
(The rest of tonight) Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front stretches from nwrn MO through sern KS and into nwrn OK.
247 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Looking at the upper level pattern across the CONUS, Upper ridging is beginning to build and amplify across the Rockies along with an upper ridge retrograding across the southern US. The upper trough that was discussed in previous discussions is departing to the north and east across Canada. Friday will begin a long period of hot and dry conditions for the region as a potent upper ridge parks itself over the central plains.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a well defined low pressure system swirling over the eastern Pacific, and this will be the region's weather maker today through much of the weekend. This front will stall this morning as the associated upper level trough offshore slows its own eastward progression in response to an amplifying pattern.
503 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Central Canadian upper low is moving away from the region with skies and rain clearing early this morning. A warming and drying trend will begin today with another upper low rotating into the Pacific Northwest and building a strong ridge across the Plains through the weekend. High pressure crossing the region today will see winds switching from west to east by evening.
Despite the passage of a cold front, high temperatures today will be a few degrees above normal, but with lower humidity than yesterday.
Later, a warm front in southwest Kansas will slowly retreat northward and be located along or just south of the Interstate 70 corridor by mid afternoon. Other than the front, not much forcing for convective initiation as an upper ridge is building over the area from the south. CAMs rather pessimistic as well, with only limited convection not on the front but further south along what appears to be a prefrontal trough or area where low level warm advection is maximized. High temperatures will range from around 100 south of the front to the low to mid 90s north of the front. Upper ridge will amplify on Friday and be the dominant feature over the plains through the weekend. A very slow shift eastward of the ridge axis will occur, with the storm track also slowly shifting eastward.
A low pressure system over southern Manitoba will continue to translate eastward throughout the day today. Due to proximity of the low, a few spotty showers with some embedded thunder will also remain possible, primarily across northwestern Minnesota through the morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, upper level ridging will begin to build into the Plains on Friday.
Triple digits will again be possible over some locations in the lower desert valleys of southeast Utah and an outside chance here in the Grand Valley.
621 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Looking at the upper level pattern across the CONUS, Upper ridging is beginning to build and amplify across the Rockies along with an upper ridge retrograding across the southern US. The upper trough that was discussed in previous discussions is departing to the north and east across Canada. Friday will begin a long period of hot and dry conditions for the region as a potent upper ridge parks itself over the central plains.
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Today) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions will continue this Thu, as an upper ridge pattern remains centered near the central TN Valley, while high pressure at the sfc remains layered across much of the SE states. With dew pts remaining in the lower/mid 70s, max heat indices later today will also climb into the 103-108F range for many spots. Upper waves rotating along the eastern fringe of the upper ridge axis may also translate into a few showers/tstms this afternoon.
629 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 At least one more day of dangerous heat and humidity depending on the location of a cold front that currently remains stalled across northern Missouri from MCI to just north of UIN as of 08z Thursday. Otherwise, the showers and storms that developed along and just ahead of cold front last night will continue to weaken and dissipate early this morning.
a chance for thunderstorms returns to areas mainly along and east of highway 281 this evening as a warm front lifts north to roughly highway 6 and a southerly LLJ overrides the front helping to induce some evening and nocturnal thunderstorm activity.
We should get some relief as a weak back door cold front moves into the area Friday night. The good news is this front should bring drier/cooler air which means temperatures will be more normal by this weekend.
Expect very hot temperatures today with the NBM giving a 40-80 percent chance for the lower deserts in Pima and Pinal Counties as well as parts of Tucson to hit 110 degrees or higher.
605 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Today and Tonight) Weak upper low is currently evident on water vapor imagery this morning over northwest Texas, bringing a stream of scattered high clouds over most of the area. The cold front that was working toward the far northern portions of the forecast area last night has stalled and is beginning to wash out over southeastern Kansas. Weak upper low will lift northwestward as the upper ridge that has been situated east of the region for the last several days will begin to build back westward today and become centered overhead by this evening.
/Issued 1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ /Through Thursday Night/ The upper low that brought a couple days of cloud cover to the area will shift northward towards Oklahoma today while becoming increasingly diffuse. Meanwhile, the southeast CONUS ridge will build westward towards the forecast area with attendant mid-level height rises. Fortunately, aggressive mixing of surface dewpoints into the low 60s and upper 50s will keep heat index values within a couple degrees of ambient temperatures.
There will be a capping inversion present today with the strong influx of warmer air from the southwest. Several solutions depict a few storms firing off the higher terrain in northwest Montana.
555 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Today: Mid/upper level trough axis rotating into MN early this morning with stronger flow rotating around its base. Have worked overnight lows to the cooler side of guidance or into the mid to upper 50s.
423 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over Manitoba, with upper ridging over The Rockies. At the surface, low pressure situated over the ND/MB border, with a weak cold front stretching down through northeastern SD to southwestern SD that will slide out of the area this morning. Mostly quiet and warm conditions are expected for the remainder of the week, as the upper ridge slowly slides east into the northern plains region.
A late day cold front will bring showers and storms to the region. The expected cold front does seem to be held up a bit with ridging to the far east and this will push back the arrival of the MCS developing later today poised to move into the forecast area.
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A cold front that moved into central Illinois last night will stall out across the area today, roughly just north of I-70.