Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
112 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE VERY NEAR-TERM FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SOON FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH OF ST. INCLUDING THE PASSAGE OF THREE DISTINCT COLD FRONTS ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IN BETWEEN. THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
Temperatures should fall into the low and mid 30s so frost will be a concern. Think Saturday will be slightly warmer than today. particularly in central Missouri where wind will start out from the west southwest for the first 1/2 of the day ahead of another reinforcing cold front. Wind will be a potential issue as the pressure gradient tightens between the associated low over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the eastern Plains. The ridge axis will quickly push thru the CWA, with winds turning sly by sunrise. Another low pressure system will dive across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO EARLY EVENING TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE NW PORTION OF WY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TRANSLATING EWD.
405 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN IA NEAR THE WEAK TROF AXIS.
MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAS EXITED EAST OF THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WITH DEEP MIXING YIELDING GUSTS IN THE 25-40MPH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN 2-4" IN THIS AREA. WHAT PUSHED US TOWARD THE ADVISORY IS THE WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 950-800MB.
1259 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 EXPECT THE CU FIELD TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG AS THE COLD POCKET SHIFTS SEWD AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A QUICK FALL IN TMPS THIS EVNG TO THE LOWER 30S BY 03/04Z. WE WILL LIKELY SEE TMPS NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHT BELOW IN FAVORED AREAS. AND WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE TMPS A NEAR 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
A building ridge of high pressure has produced a very nice day across the Northern Rockies.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE INTO NE FL LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SWD INTO CENTRAL AND THEN SRN FL. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC FROM THE W WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING ON NWLY FLOW. THAT COULD OTHERWISE BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITHOUT THE WIND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AND ALSO KEEPING TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL. ALOFT THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP PUSH CLOUDS TO EAST. NAM TRIES TO SQUEEZE OUT A SMALL AREA OF QPF FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AR.
441 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DOWNSLOPE.
646 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF QUICK POP AND DROP TYPE SHOWER MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAN JUANS BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS TO FOLKS HIKING/PLAYING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
222 PM PDT FRI APR 1 2016 High pressure will provide dry conditions and above average temperatures this weekend.
THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THE SPRINKLES ARE HELPING TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN FROM ALOFT AND WINDS ARE FAIRLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. EVEN WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THAT GETS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THAT AREA SHOULD HAVE THE LIGHTEST WINDS.
THE FIRST AND DEEPER OF THE LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. WITH DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COTEAU FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
330 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS A WEAK TROF RUNNING FROM LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND IDEAL RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
407 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. AS REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PASS. HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FOLD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST CAUSING THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE FINALLY EJECTING TO THE EAST. WILL SEE THE FIRST HINTS OF THE NEXT SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE OHIO COUNTIES. ONE VIGOROUS UPPER IMPULSE WILL HAVE JUST DRIVEN A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT LOOK FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING. ESPECIALLY ON RIDGETOPS.
Any sub freezing temps are expected to be highly localized and short in duration.
COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND BE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NICE AND COOL ON SATURDAY (ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA-WIDE.
351 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) Winds from the north will continue for most of the next 24 hours, and temperatures will be cooler than seasonal normals.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 341 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS STILL SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT VICINITY OF CENTRAL GA SATURDAY MORNING AND POPS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. AFTER THAT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SIGNALING A WARMUP FOR SATURDAY.
AS EXPECTED, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
124 PM PDT FRI APR 1 2016 A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE CONTINUED WARMING.
THE COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NIGHT TIME BUT DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ON TEMPERATURES LEAN MORE ON THE BLEND OF MAV AND ECS AS THE NAM TREND HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARDS A COOLER BIAS. THEREFORE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION WITH CAA CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
SCTD MIDLVL CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 21-00Z.
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds.
344 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND A BROADER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA WIDE. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
218 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 EXPECT THE CU FIELD TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
338 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 HIGHLIGHTS: NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS THE FCST AREA. CLEARING ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S COASTAL.
1144 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model solutions.
/ISSUED 431 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ A BUSY FORECAST WITH TSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING WED-THU AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FLORIDA. THE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOST INFLUENCE WED-THU. HOWEVER, WITH THE TROUGH'S CLOSEST INFLUENCE BEGINNING ON WED, MID LEVELS WILL COOL SOME AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WED-THU.
BASIC SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS FOCUSES AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. THE PLAINS ARE IN NEARLY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GIVE NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE.
1048 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG A ROCKIES INTO TEXAS AXIS SHIFTS TO A CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AXIS BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF. WELCOME COOLER PERIOD STARTS TODAY.
WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW STACKED OVER IT. THIS LOW IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD STRATUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS LOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE AREA AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ALOFT AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
717 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
41 NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER TEXAS WITH THE 5H RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT.
A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THANKS TO A LATE SUMMER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-85 BUT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MEANS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE COLD FRONT IS ACTING AS A TRAIN TRACK FOR THE MCV AND EXTENDS FROM SE OK. BUT AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SW CWA FOR SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. MUCH COOLER NIGHT WILL FOLLOW.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH GA INTO FAR NORTH FL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. WITH THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW.
913 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
1058 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS SHIFT IS THE RESULT OF THE HIGH BEING NUDGED EAST AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. ALSO MOISTURE THAT HAS ACCUMULATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTHWARD TODAY CARRIED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. WHILE THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO WYOMING BY LATE WED. THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL PASS OVER EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT READINGS. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON WED WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN TROUGH PASSAGE AND A MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER UTAH.
08Z WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NM/CO STATE LINE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH EASTERN KS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVER EASTERN KS. HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS MODELS WARM 850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
716 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD INTO WV/PA. QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN AIRMASS TO BE FELT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. THOUGH SOME CU SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY ON AND A FEW IN THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN LATE AUGUST NORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AND TREND HAS BEEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 2 NIGHTS AGO. WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID 40S INTO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST.
645 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. EAST OF THE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO LOCATED WEST OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WHICH HELD NEAR 60 FOR A LONG DURATION THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HAVE QUICKLY DIPPED TO THE LOWER 50S. FORMING ANOTHER EXPANSION OF THE CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS DRIER COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP NIGHT TIME LOW TEMPS FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A WEAK TROUGH IS HANGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES FROM NEW YORK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
One 500mb thermal trough was located over western Nebraska which was embedded in a northwesterly flow. A surface to 850mb trough was located across eastern Colorado. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather picture across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure had developed across eastern portions of wyoming and colorado and this feature is progged to remain nearly unchanged through the next 24 hours. Temperatures will continue to ease upward through the next few days as the lower atmosphere slowly warms.
IT IS RELATIVELY QUIET ON THIS SIDE WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.
1108 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AND MOST OF THIS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS AT 04Z SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST ENOUGH COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH A REINFORCING BRUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THAT AREA. EXPECTING A COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1240 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HYDRO A LARGE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS WAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROF RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO KAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS WAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE. HAD EARLIER THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE AREAL COVERAGE INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL LOOKS TOO HIGH. SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
949 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE.
1050 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COINCIDENT W/ LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROF. PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALLOWING INSTABILITY AXIS TO ALSO SHIFT EAST AND CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
Record lows for this morning are in the low 50s so a few may yet fall.
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
944 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON.
947 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH. BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THESE AREAS APPEAR LIKELY TO EITHER START THE DAY WARMER THAN MODEL FORECASTS OR RECEIVE AMPLE SUNSHINE. ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY.
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY.
1220 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER INCREASED DRAMATICALLY AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS SEEPED OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION.