Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered light showers are expected through the rest of the afternoon across the region as a cold front begins to work its way into the area from the west. Weak instability looks to limit the chance for thunderstorms, but it isn't completely out of the question of an evening thunderstorm near the cold front in eastern ND and RRV between 6-9 PM. As the cold front moves eastward tonight, there remains the slight chance of scattered light rain showers to move east into Minnesota.
At the same time, surface to 850mb flow will continue to funnel better moisture into the High Plains. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 80s. Upper trough will be swinging across the Plains Tue night into Wed and will get the area back into northwest flow aloft for Wed into Thu. Broad area of upper ridging looks to setup over a large portion of the central CONUS for the end of the week into the weekend as a closed low passes over Baja.
An unseasonably cool airmass was filtering into the region as high pressure settles into the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. An upper trough was dropping southeast through the OH valley into the TN valley this afternoon and will be southeast of our forecast area before 06Z.
Temperatures in the southern portions of our area were trending slightly warmer than the previous forecast per 02z observations,so temps were slightly adjusted in the forecast. Cooler conditions prevail throughout the night and into the morning hours, with overnight lows in the low to upper 50s. Our area continues to dry out as a high pressure moves in and northwesterly winds continue to follow cold air advection, bringing clear skies throughout the day tomorrow.
558 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 The back edge of the low clouds has been making some slow progress across the area, though it has been particularly slow over Illinois and eastern Missouri where enough low level moisture has caused an extensive cumulus field to form. Latest run of the HREF is showing the ridge moving east across the area tonight and early tomorrow. This will allow for strong radiational cooling tonight with lows in the low- mid 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the low lying areas in the Ozarks. Sunday night will not be as cool with increasing clouds and warm air advection in the low levels.
Memorial Day will likely be the first day of more widespread rainfall with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible for much of the area thanks to a subtle short wave pushing across the southern plains around the base of the main trough located along the Rockies bringing multiple waves of precipitation.
On Monday, high pressure remains dominant over the region and will bring another beautiful day. RW Extended models show a trough moving through the southern Plains and Ohio Valley by the middle to end of the week. Discrepancies noted between models by mid week, however models agree on increasing Gulf moisture across the area ahead of the amplifying trough to our west.
301 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Impactful weather: Frost/freezing conditions this morning. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Upper troughing was over the eastern states and in central Canada down through the nrn Plains early this morning, while a narrow upper ridge western Quebec through the western Great Lakes and midwest. At the sfc, a large expanse of high pressure and loads of dry air (PWATs around 0. The upper troughing over the eastern states will shift northward through tonight, impacting the mid Atlantic into New England, while the Canadian and nrn Plains troughing squashes the ridging over nrn Michigan, and also pushes it east. High temperatures today will be in the upper half of the 60s to around 70F, cooler in coastal areas. Lows tonight will largely be in the low to mid 40s.
As the moist air ascends the central mountains, RH values are approaching 100% in the lowest 2km of the atmosphere, resulting in low cigs with light rain/ drizzle from State College southwestward into the Laurel Highlands. Another wave of low pressure will develop over the eastern Carolinas and progress northward along the Delmarva Coast overnight into Sunday, bringing a renewed chance for steadier rainfall across the eastern third or so of PA. We should begin to see some modest improvement later Sunday as low pressure pulls to our northeast.
351 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 A highly amplified pattern exists across the East CONUS this morning, with a deep trough axis extending roughly SSW-NNE from the NE Gulf Coast into Southern Quebec. Northerly low-lvl flow along the western flank of the trough has brought seasonably cool temperatures to the region. Temperatures at 3 AM this morning were generally in the low/mid 50s across the area, with dew point temperatures in the mid/upper 40s. A long swath of stratus clouds has been moving across the area overnight and keeping temperatures slightly warmer than they otherwise might be. The eastern trough will gradually give way to a quasi-zonal pattern across the region on Monday.
/issued 256 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ It has been a chilly start to the holiday weekend as an upper level trough continues to move through the Mid-South this afternoon. Don't really expect clouds to really start clearing until later this evening when the upper trough moves east into Middle Tennessee. Weak upper ridging will also begin to occur behind the departing upper trough so expect a warming trend to occur over the course of the weekend. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and by Monday a few locations will reach into the lower 80s.
Farther south, it looks to be a little warmer with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
As a weak trough continues to shift southeastward across the region today, another afternoon of marginal convection will be possible for the Sierra crest, south-central Nevada (Nye/Lincoln), and northwest Arizona. A stout ridge begins to build across the western CONUS with its axis positioned over northern California prompting excessive heat products across much of the state.
Memorial Day will feature abundant sunshine with high temperatures reaching the lower 70s. Low level thermal trough in place amid sharp surface based inversion suggests cooler than guidance best route. Ridge settles across souther portion of Great Lakes on Monday with abundant sunshine/moderating temperatures into the lower 70s.
As a result, have kept our forecast dry for now despite northwesterly flow aloft and a weak trough near our southeastern counties. Temperatures should be a couple degrees higher Monday, and rh values will likely be about 5 percent lower, but winds will be pretty light with most locations around 10 mph or less as high pressure builds in at the surface.
A cold upper level Low pressure system was centered over the Mid-Atlantic region.
315 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 As of 08Z Sunday morning, a midlevel ridge axis continues to extend from the Great Lakes region through eastern KS. However, the stubborn mid and low-level ridge has been slower than originally depicted in its eastern movement and has slowed the return of WAA.
429 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 A cold front will move through the region overnight with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly in the north and east Midlands. Temperatures will be much cooler Sunday behind the cold front with lingering cloudiness. Temperatures will begin to moderate behind exiting upper trough as heights rise across the region.
Lingering clouds at southern terminals should clear out in the next few hours as a cold front continues to sink southward. /issued 353 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ A weak cold front is currently moving through the area. The chances of convection rapidly diminish as the front moves offshore and high pressure starts to build in.
Monday the state transitions more into a NW flow regime between the departing trough and ridging along the west coast. While surface focusing features will be lacking, some weak impulses sweeping through in the NW flow may help bubble up some light convection for the highest elevations during peak heating.
Interestingly enough, and similar to this time last night, the lowest clouds are against the Ozarks and Ouachitas, and this is due to increased humidity around 900 mb and a fairly strong inversion above that. Temperatures should top out a bit warmer.
As upper trough moves closer and we get at weak steering flow over Oklahoma and western north Texas, this activity should move into the body of Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight and Monday.
High pressure will continue to strengthen in the North Pacific and push onshore today.
A fairly strong upper trough will move across the region Memorial Day, with low level convergence along a surface front.
1203 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Strato-cumulus have held on strong across most of the Missouri Ozarks through mid-afternoon as a 850 mb thermal trough slowly shifts southeast across the area. The one exception is the Highway 54 corridor where partial clearing is starting to take place. As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, that thermal trough will continue to shift southeast. Models are in good agreement that upper level troughing will extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley through the central high Plains and into the southwestern U.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge to build over the region today and Monday replacing the low pressure trough that brought the CWA another round of beneficial rainfall yesterday. Tonight and Memorial Day rain chances look to drop to 10 percent as subsidence increases and surface moisture becomes a bit more shallow as the 500mb ridge becomes more establish over South Texas. Maximum Temperatures for the rest of the holiday weekend should be near seasonal norms with upper 80s to mid 90s, but with dew points in the lower 70s under light to moderate southeast winds heat indices to approach 100 degrees.
Temperatures will move little in the lower to mid 50s through morning, with stratus reestablishing by sunrise. Reduced max temperature grids to be aligned with the cooler 00z MET MOS, but wouldn't be surprised if even this is too warm. At the surface, a weak low pressure system over the southern plains will move slowly southeast Monday morning through the afternoon, dragging a weak cold front through southwest KS. Weak northeast winds behind the front and overcast skies will keep Monday afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
1121 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 A weak trough will sweep across the area during the short term forecast period, and bring showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight and Sunday. The activity will spread eastward overnight and Sunday, likely becoming more organized as the arrival of a mid-level trough supplies better forcing/moisture. The showers look to wane by mid-day Sunday, but there will be the potential for afternoon redevelopment from central into southwest MN on Sunday afternoon as the weak warm front bisects the area. Cloud cover and southerly flow will yield much warmer minimum temps overnight as compared to last night. Anticipate readings to range from the low/mid 70s in west central MN to low and mid 60s elsewhere.
930 PM PDT Sat May 29 2021 Our cooler than average Spring weather will persist through Sunday as onshore flow and a fairly deep marine layer prevail west of the mountains. Gusty late day and evening westerly winds will continue through the passes and into the deserts one more day, even as the high deserts begin to warm.
This seems to be resulting in less drizzle over the past 1-2 hours as best forcing shifts towards the base of the upper trof and 850 mb low centered over the Delmarva region. Aforementioned wave of low pressure lifting northward from the Delmarva Coast overnight into Sunday, bringing a renewed chance for steadier rainfall across the eastern third or so of PA. We should begin to see some modest improvement later Sunday as low pressure pulls to our northeast.
This is bringing renewed lift to central and eastern areas with renewed drizzle over the central and south central mountains, while focusing highest POPs/rain chances over eastern and especially southeast parts of my area this morning, while the steadiest and heaviest rain remains east of the Lower Susq River Valley.
348 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Upper low finally departs today. High pressure will build from the northwest on Sunday and become centered across the area on Monday. Upper low still poised for a slow exit, and will do so with low level drying later this afternoon and evening. POPs effectively come to an end over the next few hours with this drying and high pressure building in with a very short period of upper level ridging. Temperatures continue a slow improvement today and Monday, but the increase in the low level temps at 850mb is modest each day.
/EC/ Temperatures in the southern portions of our area were trending slightly warmer than the previous forecast per 02z observations,so temps were slightly adjusted in the forecast. Cooler conditions prevail throughout the night and into the morning hours, with overnight lows in the low to upper 50s. Our area continues to dry out as a high pressure moves in and northwesterly winds continue to follow cold air advection, bringing clear skies throughout the day tomorrow.
1013 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Much cooler than normal temperatures will continue overnight, as early morning lows will drop as low as the 40s in some locations. A narrow upper ridge replaces the trough on Monday across much of the MS and TN valleys with diminishing north-northeast flow. The ridge flattens with 5h flow becoming west to west southwest on Monday.
1223 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 (This evening through Sunday) After several days of being influenced by upper-level disturbances, West Central Texas is enjoying a reprieve from the active weather today, thanks to mid-level ridging. By tomorrow afternoon, an upper-level trough will dig in over Baja California, which will break down the ridge over west Texas.
209 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021 Warming trend the next few days as an upper level ridge increases it's influence over western Montana.
Much cooler than normal temperatures will continue overnight, as early morning lows will drop as low as the 40s in some locations. A narrow upper ridge replaces the trough on Monday across much of the MS and TN valleys with diminishing north-northeast flow. The ridge flattens with 5h flow becoming west to west southwest on Monday.
A cold front pushed through the CWA and will allow for pleasant weather through the near term. Drier air has filtered in behind the cold front with dewpoints in the 50s across much of the region this morning! A few light returns can be seen on radar this morning, but this is not reaching the ground and precipitation is not expected through tonight.
349 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a much nicer day to the quad state region.
As skies continue to clear out, we should see temps continue to fall as well with lows dropping into the lower-middle 40s in most areas. For today, upper level trough axis over eastern Ohio and into West Virgina is forecast to continue to pull eastward as high pressure builds into the region from the west. We will likely see a gradient of temperature across the region with highs in the low-mid 60s over in the Bluegrass and I-75 corridor. Quiet weather is expected to continue for tonight with mostly clear skies and temperatures will fall back into the lower-mid 40s once again.
Upper ridge builds across the western CONUS early this week.
1229 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 230 PM CDT High pressure dominates the weather pattern, with surface and upper air ridging just to our northwest, providing mostly clear skies with northeasterly winds. The gradient between the low to our east and high pressure is creating some gusty winds up to 30 mph, but will slowly weaken the rest of this afternoon into the evening as high pressure continues to builds in. With strong ridging throughout the atmosphere, we should see another mostly clear day on Sunday. Monday morning lows will be warmer thanks to the overnight clouds, reaching more seasonal lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s with light southerly winds.
352 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Deep layer stability held firm within a gradually increasing upper height field and general low level ridging ensures another day of benign weather conditions today. The resident below average thermal profile will inch higher today under increasing thickness readings, but with the lack of meaningful warm air advection given weak gradient flow placing a ceiling on this warmer trend. Otherwise, similar environmental conditions in place Memorial Day, but with increasing depth to the south-southwest flow as the upper ridge axis eases eastward providing an uptick in the warm air advective process.
Overnight, the low CAA stratus deck continues to move southward, impacting the northern counties. We'll have even more sunshine during the day as the clouds continue to clear which will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, but humidity will be low with highs in the 70s/lower 80s.
343 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 A strong upper level trough will move through the middle Atlantic region today and will exit the area tonight.
Near-term models show that precipitation will not arrive until late tonight ahead of upper level trough axis moving through the area. Areas along/north of I-80 have a good shot at reach the low/mid 70s by late afternoon.
An upper trough is moving across Middle Tennessee this evening and will take the main band of moisture with it as it carries eastward.
An area of high pressure that helped support a few nights of frost and freezing temperatures across the Northland will continue to shift off to the east today, making way for a mid-level trough to enter the region, followed by a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. However, once the cold front enters the region, models are indicating scattered showers and storms to develop along the boundary. Hodograph shape shows slight curvature in the low-levels but largely straight-lined in orientation. The cold front will eventually stall out along the MN/WI border Sunday night, while we remain under the upper-level trough.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 52 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 49 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 48 80 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 46 77 53 81 / 0 10 0 0 10.
By this afternoon, we are expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Upper troughing hangs over the region into much of the week bringing at least scattered storms each afternoon.
155 AM PDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure centered just off the West Coast strengthens and slowly pushes inland for the first half of the week.
Temperatures will move little in the lower to mid 50s through morning, with stratus reestablishing by sunrise. Reduced max temperature grids to be aligned with the cooler 00z MET MOS, but wouldn't be surprised if even this is too warm.
An upper trof over the eastern states gradually deamplifies and lifts well off to the northeast through Monday. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast, then Sunday night will be a bit warmer with mid 50s to around 60 inland ranging to lower to mid 60s at the coast. Monday will be warmer with highs at the coast in the mid 80s ranging to upper 80s to lower 90s further inland.
Mid and upper level ridging keep the short term period fairly quiet. A weak short wave riding around the top of the ridge could result in a few showers or storms for Victoria today, but otherwise mainly quiet weather is expected. At the surface, ridging to the east sags south and even a bit southwest while low pressure deepens over the panhandle. By late in the day Monday the ridge begins to break down as the next trough moves into the central US.
Temperatures will approach record highs for the latter half of the upcoming week due to persistent high pressure over the region. A few light showers developed along the southern Sierra ridgeline and in the northern portion of Lincoln County this afternoon and evening but any thunderstorm activity stayed mainly west of the Sierra crest. The weak area of low pressure responsible for the showers will slowly move to the southeast overnight. The weak mid level trough which is helping generate storms this afternoon will move very slowly east tonight and tomorrow, with very small chances for showers tomorrow in the Sierra and also on the eastern CWA border near Colorado City tomorrow and Monday. By then, heat will be taking over as the main problem as high pressure noses in from the east Pacific.
Another sunny day on Memorial Day itself, but a touch warmer.
338 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 As of 08Z Sunday morning, a midlevel ridge axis continues to extend from the Great Lakes region through eastern KS. However, the stubborn mid and low-level ridge has been slower than originally depicted in its eastern movement and has slowed the return of WAA.
A warmer and more seasonably stormy pattern is likely to evolve by midweek and beyond. Large mid level trof to migrate slowly east to a position over Western PA by 00Z Monday. As the low begins pulls east the low level flow over the western FA will back from northeast to northwest. Temperatures will warm some but still remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal -- ranging from the lower 60s east to the upper 60s west. Lows will generally be in the mid/upper 40s area-wide, with a few rural/valley spots dipping into the lower 40s. Memorial Day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with much warmer temperatures as highs top out in the low/mid 70s area- wide.
915 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Upper low finally departs today. High pressure will build from the northwest on Sunday and become centered across the area on Monday. Upper low still poised for a slow exit, and will do so with low level drying later this afternoon and evening. POPs effectively come to an end over the next few hours with this drying and high pressure building in with a very short period of upper level ridging. Temperatures continue a slow improvement today and Monday, but the increase in the low level temps at 850mb is modest each day.
Mainly clear skies and VFR expected tonight as high pressure builds in, but fog/mist will likely affect TRI late. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 52 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 49 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 49 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 45 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 10.
452 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021 A cool & dreary Sunday for much of southeast Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle w/ deep moist low-level upslope in place across the high plains. Could see a couple of inches of snow above 9000-9500 feet elevation with H7 temperatures falling to near freezing. A warming trend will commence by Tue as significant upper-level ridging builds across the western CONUS.
Ensemble guidance supports the highest confidence in this forecast package as a period of near or only slightly above normal temperatures and fairly typical springtime breezes each afternoon (outside of any gusty outflow winds). Westerly flow aloft will then help to move a few showers or thunderstorms around these high terrain areas and potentially into the high deserts near Page, Bitter Springs and areas as far east as Navajo National Monument. Very little rainfall is expected due to the high-based (cloud bases 7-10 kft above ground level) nature of these storms and the dry boundary layer any rain will have to fall through.
328 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021 A strong upper level ridge will build across the western U. As it extends its influence into the Northern High Plains, look for relatively light winds, dry weather conditions, and increasingly warmer temperatures.
630 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 A cold front will move through the region overnight with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly in the north and east Midlands. Temperatures will be much cooler Sunday behind the cold front with lingering cloudiness. Temperatures will begin to moderate behind exiting upper trough as heights rise across the region.