Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
102 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WHILE FLATTENING INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 14-15C AND 500MB HEIGHTS PEAK OUT NEAR 580DM.
324 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL NNW DRAINAGE FLOW. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPS WILL NEAR THE LOW 40S WHERE WINDS WILL STAY A BIT MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT NEAR 5 MPH.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KTRI AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE AREA.
A weak trof of low pressure which is currently over the eastern Plains will drift across Missouri and into Illinois through Monday afternoon. The MET guidance looks too cool across most of the area (at least for highs tomorrow) so have trended closer to the warmer MAV.
THE FIRST SUCH WAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AT 20Z AND IS SUPPORTING A REGION OF INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ZIPPING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AT PRESS TIME. A SECOND WAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AND IS EXPECTED TO A ELICIT A SLIGHTLY BETTER RESPONSE 06-12Z GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK OPEN WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY BETWEEN A DEPARTING LOW TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTING THE LOW END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
EXPECT A PLEASANT MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING UP TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA /A MUCH WELCOMED 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS/ AND WITH LESSENED WEST WINDS DUE TO A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
/ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE RIDGE SHUFFLES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR OUR REGION BECAUSE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CREATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY.
900 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THIS WEEK.
That said, where humidity values look to be the lowest, in our southern and southwestern zones, the winds will still probably be in the 10 to 15 mph range.
High temperatures will range from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s near Tennessee. This band of light rain is setting up just ahead of a 500mb trough axis and surface frontal boundary currently over the Wabash River Valley. Thermal profiles will be too warm in the low levels, so still only mentioning rain. A very weak clipper will actually move into the lower Ohio Valley by Monday afternoon, with light warm advection across the southern part of KY. This will set up a subtle temperature gradient with lows tonight in the lower 30s across our south, and in the upper 20s north. Highs on Monday should be a degree or two warmer than today, so looking for mid 50s southwest to mid 40s NE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AT 12Z SUNDAY, CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A DRY COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH LAST NIGHT BUT IT IS NOT PACKING TOO MUCH OF A PUNCH IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. THESE READINGS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE. I RAISED OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WARMER READINGS ALONG WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
Southwest winds between 15 and 20 mph continue to blow across the Big Country this afternoon due to good mixing with stronger winds aloft, as well as a tightened surface pressure gradient between the panhandle and Big Country area, between surface lee troughing in southeastern CO/northeastern NM, and high pressure across south Texas. The surface pressure gradient will weaken tonight as the high pressure area weakens. This will result in a wide variation of lows similar to last night from near freezing in low lying protected areas, to as warm as the lower 40s at higher elevations where slightly stronger winds will help keep the boundary layer mixed, and warmer. As this upper level trough moves across the area, a reflection at the surface in the form of a trough will translate across the area as well.
A VERY WEAK AND DISSIPATING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY EARLY MON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
150 PM PST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHICH FORECAST THE WAVE TO RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE RATHER THAN FLATTENING IT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY. THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REACHES CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE DEEPENING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE TWO CONSEQUENCES TO THIS TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED THAT THE TROUGH WOULD BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH PRODUCING MEASURABLE.
IN AN EARLIER UPDATE DID HAVE TO ADD THE REST OF PLATTE COUNTY TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS NRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY REACHED CRITERIA. WHICH 40S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND NR THE PINE RIDGE.
WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WITH FURTHER EROSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL DECK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
1132 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLIDING A WARM FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR BEGIN TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM WESTERLY WINDS PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE PROGRESSED AS FAR EAST AS THE I-29 CORRIDOR. SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH 925 MB TEMPS EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY THAN YESTERDAY SEE NO REASON IT WILL NOT WARM WELL INTO THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
1000 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.
WITH THE MAIN FLOW SAGGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING BY OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS STRONG FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE OUR PATTERN.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OFFSHORE.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER A BRIEF PEAK OF SUN DUE TO CLEARING BROUGHT ON BY THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY RADAR RETURNS ARE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN SPATIALLY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM ABOUT PGH SOUTH. SE RIDGES AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH MON MORNING. 1-2" IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RIDGES. TAX HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE RIDGES MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY WORKED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
/ISSUED 337 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The cold front that passed through the forecast today is now into deep south Texas. Lee side troughing will develop over the Panhandle this afternoon with surface pressure gradients the tightest over the Panhandle. The Interstate 10 corridor will be a little cooler with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER TEXAS IS INFLUENCING MIDDLE TN AND PROVIDING NICE FLYING WEATHER FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
300 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FA AT 20Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FA THIS EVENING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES.
THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WITH THE COOLER AIR COMING THINK THAT TEMPS WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE THE TEMPERATURES AT SPOTS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WILL HAVE THE MORE TYPICAL HIGH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. AND THE RECENT 06Z RUN HAS THINGS MUCH DRIER ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE NON-DIURNAL WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.
251 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND PULLING DOWN COLDER AIR AS THEY PASS.
210 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2015 Quiet weather will continue into midweek before another storm system and cold front bring active weather back to the region.
247 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR LAKE ERIE LATE MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERING OUT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH PASSAGE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 21 TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
1259 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGING THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT AS TROF AXIS CONTS TO ROTATE THROUGH LWR GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING /WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUES.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT SHIFTING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RH ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL START BELOW FREEZING. WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AS THE WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. A BIT MORE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS POSSIBLE. THE COOLER TEMP PROFILES WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH VALLEY EDGES WILL MIX AND BECOME SLIGHTLY WARMER. POSSIBLY MID 60S FOR THE WARMER SPOTS. HIGH TEMPS TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE BACK IN THE LOWER 40S OVR THE PLAINS.
130 PM PST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THIS WEEK.
As a dry cold front crosses the tri-state area, winds from the northwest may gust to around 20 MPH this afternoon. Tonight, as a cooler, drier airmass moves in and high pressure settles along the Florida Panhandle, winds will calm we'll see temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s.
A progressive northwest flow pattern over the area will help push the central Plains trough across our area later tonight. but this feature quickly washes out as another lee side trough develops in response to an approaching clipper over the northern plains on Monday and moves across the area as a cold front late Monday night.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Upper trof and frontal passage this morning sees clearing skies behind it as pcpn chances depart with the system to the east.
1023 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING, NOW HAVING EXITED OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS OF 15Z, STRETCHED FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWRD INTO THE WRN GOMEX.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN RATHER QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
Most of the area will warm into the lower and middle 60s.
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR OUT THERE THIS MORNING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPING SOME MVFR AND VFR CU/SC AROUND. A MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING IN BY EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF SHOULD EXPEDITE THE CLEARING FOR A TIME.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ON TO THE EAST.
1237 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
345 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
222 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NJ COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH THE CHANGING WX CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS OVER IN THE FAR SE HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE NOW DEVELOPED. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PIVOTS INTO THE MID ATLC. FURTHER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRISK AND COLDER NW FLOW. EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE RIDGES ALONG/W OF RT 219.
A SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
The weak cold front has pushed east of the area and the core of coolest air is already centered east of the CWA. All signals currently point to raising the high temperatures. Heights aloft will be on the rise in the wake of the departing upper trof, low level WAA will be occuring, surface winds will have a largely westerly component while backing slightly this afternoon, and temps at this early morning hour are not very cold.
LIKELY DUE TO TOO MUCH SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING OVER AND WARM START WITH TEMPS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. LITTLE OR NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND EVEN UPSTREAM OVER MINNESOTA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RH ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
1021 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER SOUTHERN AB WITH WARM FRONT/TROUGH INTO SOUTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WARM/FRONT TROUGH HEADING EAST. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THERMAL TROF ACROSS THE STATE WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES BY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS MODELS GENERALLY DO A POOR JOB IN THIS SCENARIO.
943 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER SOUTHERN AB WITH WARM FRONT/TROUGH INTO SOUTHEAST WY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WARM/FRONT TROUGH HEADING EAST. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
A TROF EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES. NW FLOW ALOFT WAS USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THAN WHAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WAS MOVING INTO IN.
GFS, ECMWF and GFS ensembles continue to push this system to our south with dominate high pressure.
1254 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
TONIGHT-MON: DESPITE COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH ON SUN/SUN NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AB WITH TROUGH/WARM FRONT INTO FAR WESTERN NE.
SECONDARY BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
155 PM PST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WHILE FLATTENING INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 14-15C AND 500MB HEIGHTS PEAK OUT NEAR 580DM.
DEEPENED SFC LEE TROUGHING HAVE RESULTED IN RATHER BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK.
932 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THIS WEEK.
920 AM PST SUN JAN 18 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE BREEZES.
While surface cold front has already pushed into Indiana, a 500mb trough axis lingers further west across central Illinois early this morning. Airmass behind the cold front is of Pacific origin, with 08z/2am upstream temperatures across Iowa/northern Missouri in the lower to middle 30s. Have therefore gone 3-5 degrees above the warmer MAV numbers, resulting in highs ranging from the lower 40s north of the I-74 corridor to near 50 degrees across the far southwest around Jacksonville.
THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH WARMEST READINGS IN BREEZY AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AROUND MIDDAY AND A GRADUAL SHIFT TO EAST- NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO MONDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF PRECIP /WITH RAIN IN THE TREASURE VALLEY/ WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE DUE TO THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TODAY AND COOLER /ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ ON MONDAY.
1155 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORM AFFECTING THE NW U. WILL MIGRATE INTO SASKATCHEWAN TODAY AND TONIGHT SETTING UP A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
1210 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL A COUPLE OF RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS STILL BELOW FREEZING (MILES CITY) BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THUS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS JUST ABOUT DONE. WE EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED BLUSTERY DAY WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL CREATE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PATTERN FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM FORSYTH TO AROUND MILES CITY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL SWING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT THERE WAS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A LEE TROUGH. ARTHUR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AREA-WIDE WITH SOME MIDDLE 60S POTENTIALLY POSSIBLE. DRY LOW LEVELS AND A VERY EFFICIENT MIXING WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY IN MIXING WARMER AIR TO THE SURFACE WARMING DRY ADIABATICALLY.
316 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING.
AN EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 349 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015/ COLD FRONT BOUNDARY MOVG ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA VERY DIFFUSE ATTM.
AT 12Z SUNDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. JUST WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS A -27C 500MB TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF WASHINGTON. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SELECTING THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND DISCOUNTING THE NAM. MINIMUMS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
LOW TO MID 30S ANTICIPATED IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERMAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE.
TEMPS TRENDING WARMER SO BUMPED UP DAYTIME MAX VALUES A FEW DEGREES. NAM BUFR SOUNDING CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS PROFILE WITH THE GFS AROUND FREEZING AND THE NAM ABOVE FREEZING AT BRASSTOWN BALD. BUT GIVEN SUCH LOW QPF AND MARGINAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD AT THE SFC AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS DRY.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A very weak cold front is moving through the north producing some light showers this morning.