Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
515 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Today through Monday Night ) Broad high pressure will be noted much of the near term from east Texas through Arkansas toward the mid-Atlantic states. Under the high, there will be plenty of sunshine today, but clouds will increase in central/southern sections of the state on Monday. As the flow aloft changes, temperatures will respond by moving a few degrees warmer on Monday than today.
515 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a weak, positively tilted trough over NM/AZ, slowly moving east toward the area. Ahead of this trough, skies are expected to remain mostly clear with generally light winds around 10 mph. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form near the leading edge of this trough as it moves over the area; however, it appears the greatest lift will be to our south.
Clear and dry conditions this morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This looks to remain in place through the week, however, there is the potential that a trough could move over the area by midweek. For now, it seems that the majority of models are showing a continuation of high pressure that, if it continues to build, could see the warmest temperatures we've seen in quite some time. Dry conditions, modestly warmer temperatures and light and variable, or light northeast to east winds, Sunday and Monday.
Northerly surface winds will stay elevated through the week within the lower Colorado River Valley.
warmer temperatures are expected today with high temperatures in the lower to upper 50s as 850mb temperatures warm another 12F to 19F degrees compared to yesterday. 850mb temperatures show little change compared to today (Sunday) so will continue with high temperatures in the lower to upper 50s.
320 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Quiet weather will prevail through the short term period as the forecast area sees high pressure rebuild overhead. The ridge will build over the Great Basin early to mid this afternoon allowing for more mild air to advect into the region.
942 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Current surface map places trof across western South Dakota. Western CONUS ridge continues to flatten today with broad area of low level warm advection across the Northern Plains. Weak impulse crosses the Dakotas Monday, allowing weak cold front to slip into northwest South Dakota.
(Tonight) High pressure in place will provide a mostly clear sky and tranquil winds overnight. This will provide a good set up for radiational cooling and temps will fall into the lower 20s.
Breezy southwest winds have occasionally gusted over 25 mph this afternoon as high pressure builds and warm air advection increases across the area.
Much of northern Arizona is expected to be a bit warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday. Clear and dry conditions this morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This looks to remain in place through the week, however, there is the potential that a trough could move over the area by midweek. For now, it seems that the majority of models are showing a continuation of high pressure that, if it continues to build, could see the warmest temperatures we've seen in quite some time. Dry conditions, modestly warmer temperatures, and light northeast to east winds, Sunday and Monday.
For tonight and Monday, surface ridging and upper level confluence into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians will continue to produce very dry conditions and clear sky.
Latest water vapor imagery from this afternoon reveals a broad upper trough sitting over the eastern half of the CONUS while a ridge sits over the Intermountain West and Pacific Coast region. At the surface a fragmented lee trough structure is in place over the Central Plains with one trough over western Kansas into central Nebraska while a weaker trough is sitting closer to the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo mountains in Colorado and New Mexico. Monday into Monday night will remain quiet over the Central High Plains as broad cyclonic flow exists over the eastern CONUS while ridging prevails over the west. This will keep a fragmented lee trough structure in place with light winds gradually turning back to the south by late afternoon.
Temperatures on Monday will then be warmer compared to today due to increased sunshine, with highs ranging from 57 to 63 degrees northwest of I-65, and from 63 to 67 degrees to the southeast.
Northerly surface winds will stay elevated through the week along the lower Colorado River Valley.
Quasi stationary surface warm front is draped from south-central Minnesota through central Iowa. While the clear skies have allowed temperatures to reach above freezing, the actually-seasonable 40 degree isotherm will remain well to the southwest with aforementioned frontal boundary. Clouds increase tonight from north to south tonight as a weak low level trough/surface front traverses Central Wisconsin.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to build through the next few days, bringing inversion conditions to most valley locations.
1118 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Today through Monday night) For today through Monday night, rather typical late November weather is anticipated as the upper level flow is progged to flatten and become more zonal and eventually semi-zonal while a surface trof of low pressure develops over eastern CO and eastern NM.
Surface ridging was still observed along the gulf coast preventing any kind of moisture return north.
1120 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a weak, positively tilted trough over NM/AZ, slowly moving east toward the area. Ahead of this trough, skies are expected to remain mostly clear with generally light winds around 10 mph. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form near the leading edge of this trough as it moves over the area; however, it appears the greatest lift will be to our south.
Consensus is that lows will below freezing most all areas, so FG that develops early will transition to FZFG, except parts of srn PB.
Afternoon temps will be close to those observed yesterday, but a degree or so warmer across most locations.
Precipitation chances remain tied to the Thanksgiving Day trough. The EC is forecasting a more neutrally oriented trough, with a further north track, helping to keep the best precip chances across northern Missouri. The GFS has trended towards a more positively tilted trough with a more southern track. Regardless, either track will bring only a slight chance for light rain showers, and slightly cooler temperatures Thanksgiving Day.
1057 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Our mini cold snap is behind us, with high temperatures near 30 today and tomorrow, and getting above freezing later in the week.
1059 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Rest of Today) High pressure continues to settle in across the Tennessee Valley. A trough over the East Coast is lifting northeastward this morning with clouds associated with it positioned just to our south and east. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 40s.
Ground temperatures till warm and surface temps are remaining above freezing so little or no accumulation expected.
1145 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma will drift east into the Tennessee Valley today, and then into the Mid Atlantic Region tonight. Light and variable wind early this morning will turn to the southwest and strengthen today as the high drifts east.
1015 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Weak ridging aloft will keep the clear and tranquil weather going through the early portion of this week. Southwest winds will begin to increase today, especially the higher elevations and the usual prone areas across central WY and off the Cody foothills.
1207 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 A large mid/upper trough continues to reside over the Great Lakes region keeping a northwesterly flow regime over the central plains.
Blowing and drifting snow are the main concerns - Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers Thu to Fri Models generally show a cold front tracking through the region Thanksgiving day.
That's a remarkable turn around! Looking to the northwest, another cold front is on it's way for tomorrow, as it's diffuse and found in the Dakotas this afternoon. There's so much downslope air behind it, that the boundary is more of a trof at this time. The cold front/trof will drop southeast and reach our CWA by Monday morning.
Warmer temps try to move in today, but a clipper system sends another cold front across our area tonight resulting in a blustery Monday.
Upper level trough axis will finally push across the area later tonight and into Monday, with models showing another round of light showers developing across the southeast portions of the area. Warmer temperatures so not much of a concern tonight for any more frozen activity.
The north central should stay cooler, especially as clouds are currently moving in. How much temperatures can rise with the snowpack in place is questionable, but it's not unreasonable that areas of southwest to south central North Dakota may cross the freezing mark this afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the single digits above zero north to the low teens south.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a weak ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes. A cold front was situated from eastern Manitoba southward through the Dakotas into western KS. As the cold front exits the region Monday morning, winds will veer northwest and with the onset of modest CAA, this may allow for lake effect snow showers or flurries to develop over north-central WI. Any lake effect snows appear to be weak and rather short- lived as high pressure to be building into the region during the afternoon. For the rest of northeast WI, expect mostly sunny skies to develop behind the cold front.
253 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure and a cool, dry airmass will remain over the region through Monday. Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal as an arctic high pressure system settles into the central US.
Today, there will be weak northerly flow aloft ahead of an upper ridge over the west. Temperatures should be back to near-normal across the area, a few degrees cooler in the valleys. Expect high temperatures in 40s across the plains and mostly 20s in the high country. Dry NW flow aloft will be over the area Mon into Tue as a sfc lee trough becomes better established by Tue. The GFS has an upper level trough moving across with decent moisture. On the other hand, the ECMWF and GEM models keep this trough further north with a much drier airmass in place with no precip. This will lead to dry conditions with warmer temps due to downslope westerly flow in the lower levels. As a result, may see highs in the lower to mid 60s across the plains both days.
1236 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 A remarkable diurnal recovery in warm advection is taking place today, and looking at the trends, I've warmed up highs in the southern half to the lower to mid 40s, and gone with 36 to 38 in the northeast/east.
143 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure moving overhead and then to the east tonight will signal the beginning of a moderating trend with temperatures. Said warming trend continues to moderate closer to seasonal norms the next day, with warmer lows in the 20s and a similar 30F or so rise in full sun pushing the mercury into/well thru the 50s.
1119 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Today through Monday Night ) Broad high pressure will be noted much of the near term from east Texas through Arkansas toward the mid-Atlantic states. Under the high, there will be plenty of sunshine today, but clouds will increase in central/southern sections of the state on Monday. As the flow aloft changes, temperatures will respond by moving a few degrees warmer on Monday than today.
Autumn has been chilly thus far, but a warming trend is in the forecast as an upper-level ridge begins to form across the Southwest U. This ridge isn't overly strong and models do not indicate it will be centered over us, limiting the warming.
1143 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging extending from the Mid MS Valley SW into ECntrl TX, and will maintain the very dry sfc air mass in place through the afternoon. Meanwhile, the flow aloft has transitioned to SW ahead of a positive tilt trough over Srn AZ/Wrn NM, that will drift E across NM by this evening and into W TX late tonight. The latest IR satellite imagery indicates some cooling aloft over WCntrl TX ahead of the trough, with areas of -RA mixed with IP/-SN noted in the sfc obs over this area into SW TX.
A ridge of high pressure will "flatten" (lose some strength/ deamplify) over the nrn Rockies/Great Basin over the next 36 hours or so, but will still remain the dominant wx enforcer during that time with just periods of high clouds drifting across the region and very little wind.
(Tonight) Another quiet night is expected across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight, with notably warmer temperatures than those seen last night. Mid and high cloud cover will increase primarily across southeast Oklahoma in response to moisture ahead of the trough that is making its slow approach to the south central part of the country. (Monday through Sunday) With the exception of southeast Oklahoma on Monday - due to the aforementioned cloud cover - the early part of the work week will be characterized by warmer temperatures and increasing southerly winds and low level moisture.
1034 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Key messages: 1) Warmer and dry for your Sunday. Northerly flow will remain place across Colorado as high pressure builds over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will begin to warm up with highs topping out in the lower to mid 50s across the Plains, and upper 30s to lower 40s across the San Luis Valley.
(Rest of Today) High pressure continues to settle in across the Tennessee Valley. A trough over the East Coast is lifting northeastward this morning with clouds associated with it positioned just to our south and east. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 40s.
1257 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure and a very dry air were over the Tennessee Valley late today and will cover the Mid Atlantic region for Monday.
1017 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Quiet weather will prevail through the short term period as the forecast area sees high pressure rebuild overhead. The ridge will build over the Great Basin early to mid this afternoon allowing for more mild air to advect into the region.
1221 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 Cold and dry weather is forecast today as high pressure builds across the area. The warming trend will continue through the week with the next chance for rain will arrive on Thanksgiving ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Low level southwesterly flow develops with lows from the upper teens northeast to the lower 20s southwest. High temperatures to begin to warming up with topping out in the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. High pressure settles in for the overnight Monday with temperatures below normal once again.
Some mid-level cloudiness currently in the southern areas will begin to diminish as the trough exits the region and drier air aloft continues to move into West Texas. Patchy fog is possible tomorrow morning in the lower South Plains and could reduce visibilities to under 2 miles at times. Given the forecast temperatures for this area, freezing fog may be a possibility if fog manages to form which could lead to light ice accumulations on elevated surfaces.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water Vapor imagery revealed that the upper level trough that has plagued the area with cold weather the last week has continued to push further into the northeast US. Tonight and Monday: Continued south to southwest winds are expected which will keep temps tonight about 10 degrees warmer than last night. Area valleys and typically colder spots will still be in the upper teens however most locations will drop into the lower to middle 20s.
148 PM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Northwesterly flow aloft continues this afternoon as the forecast area remains on the eastern edge of a broad upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, a weak trough/front rotating around a low pressure center over Hudson Bay is currently crossing the forecast area. Zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the first half of the week, producing dry weather and warmer than average temperatures. Due to a couple of weak impulses crossing the region, temperatures on Monday will be a little cooler than today.
203 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) The longwave trough that has been set up over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS over the last week will finally relinquish its hold over the region, but not before it's final impacts to the area in the form of a cold front that swept through the forecast area yearly this morning. With temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s today, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the lower 20s and teens through most of the afternoon, which has prompted a Fire Danger Statement which is in effect through 7pm today.
1027 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 An upper level disturbances moves across the area today, followed by dry high pressure and gradually moderating temperatures Monday.
These precip chances are courtesy of a trough axis swinging through the Upper Great Lakes region late tonight into early tomorrow, followed by some brief reinvigorating CAA in its wake.
Temperatures early this morning are down the in the lower and middle 20's with winds chills a few degrees on either side of 0. Temperatures will be up several degrees this afternoon from yesterday with highs forecast in the lower and middle 30's. A rather tight low level pressure gradient behind a passing ridge axis will provide 20-25 mph gusts through a good portion of the day. Winds will come down gradually through Monday morning and afternoon with an area of deformation at the surface approaching from the west weakening the gradient flow and the low level jet pushing off the east.
325 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure will result in dry weather into Thanksgiving with a warming trend.
How much temperatures can rise with the snowpack in place is questionable, but it's not unreasonable that areas of southwest to south central North Dakota may cross the freezing mark this afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the single digits above zero north to the low teens south.
245 PM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Breezy and gradually warmer conditions are expected to be the theme of the week across North-Central and Southwestern Montana.
According to the SPC's sounding climatology, this ties for the lowest PWAT value ever observed here on this date.
319 PM MST Sun Nov 20 2022 Northwesterly flow aloft continues this afternoon as the forecast area remains on the eastern edge of a broad upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, a weak trough/front rotating around a low pressure center over Hudson Bay is currently crossing the forecast area. Zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the first half of the week, producing dry weather and warmer than average temperatures. Due to a couple of weak impulses crossing the region, temperatures on Monday will be a little cooler than today.
(Tonight) A weak area of high pressure continues to move slowly to the ESE tonight. The exception to this is just west and near a weak area of low pressure over north central/northwestern GA. Expect dewpoints to rise over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee between now and daybreak on Monday as a result, mainly into the lower 20s.
A weak lead short wave is expected to track across the central Rockies on Monday, possibly leading to slightly cooler temperatures compared to today.
Building high pressure mid-to-late week will allow temperatures to warm above seasonal averages.
600 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure will result in dry weather into Thanksgiving with a warming trend.
Upper air analysis this morning shows an area of high pressure situated to our north and a trough exiting the region to our south, promoting increasing atmospheric stability over the region. High pressure has also enabled mountain ridges to remain exceptionally dry this morning, with many locations observing RH values below 10%. Inversions will continue to impact mountain locations as high pressure remains the dominant pattern over our region. This morning's satellite imagery revealed freezing fog over Mono and Crowley lakes, as well as patchy fog around the Martis Valley. Freezing fog is expected to develop again over the Mono Basin, Crowley Lake, and the Martis Valley overnight tonight.
Next on the list is weak ridging the next few days allowing temperatures to bounce back to normal levels. This weak ridge will be dirty, meaning that high level moisture will roll through it Monday night allowing high clouds to move overhead.
505 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Tonight) Another quiet night is expected across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight, with notably warmer temperatures than those seen last night. Mid and high cloud cover will increase primarily across southeast Oklahoma in response to moisture ahead of the trough that is making its slow approach to the south central part of the country. (Monday through Sunday) With the exception of southeast Oklahoma on Monday - due to the aforementioned cloud cover - the early part of the work week will be characterized by warmer temperatures and increasing southerly winds and low level moisture.
High pressure over the area will keep us dry for the next couple days with generally calm winds.
Light westerly flow has helped advect a noticably warmer airmass across the region today helping temperatures to climb into the 50s across the board. Expect a generally warm and dry weather pattern to then persist across the local area for at least the next several days as more zonal flow has returned aloft with the next upper level trough and surface front not expected to impact the local area until Thanksgiving day. do not expect any precipitation with the front or passage of the upper trough.
A blocking NE Pacific ridge continues to breakdown going into this week.
However, still have slight/chance PoPs in the forecast for Monday morning as plenty of moisture still remains in the low and mid levels and a remnant frontal boundary continues to linger south of the area. Temperatures will remain cooler today as cloud cover and rainfall limit warming this afternoon. Afternoon highs will range from around 60 along the Nature Coast to the lower 70s further south.
903 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022 High pressure will result in dry weather into Thanksgiving with a warming trend.
(This afternoon through Monday) The longwave trough that has been set up over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS over the last week will finally relinquish its hold over the region, but not before it's final impacts to the area in the form of a cold front that swept through the forecast area yearly this morning. With temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s today, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the lower 20s and teens through most of the afternoon, which has prompted a Fire Danger Statement which is in effect through 7pm today.
356 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2022 (Issued 356 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2022) Tonight through Monday night: Low pressure tracking across Ontario tonight will drag a cold front through WI Monday morning. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest tonight, then become westerly Monday morning and gradually diminish through the day as they become more northwesterly due to high pressure moving in. Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 30s, despite being behind a cold front.
High pressure moving overhead and then to the east tonight will signal the beginning of a moderating trend with temperatures. Said warming trend continues to moderate closer to seasonal norms the next day, with warmer lows in the 20s and a similar 30F or so rise in full sun pushing the mercury into/well thru the 50s.
Breezy and gradually warmer conditions are expected to be the theme of the week across North-Central and Southwestern Montana.