Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
and ridging down into East Texas and the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Rua Southerly flow regime will continue today with upper level ridge over the Northeast Gulf beginning to weaken. Further east, periphery of upper level ridge is expected to keep enough dry air in the mid levels to keep any significant shower activity from forming. Northern stream disturbance is expected to dig far enough south to push a surface cold front through the forecast area on late Thursday.
Local tools suggest highs along and north of highway 30 may with more clouds and cooler air be at least 3+ degrees too high. This would support based on persistence of mins in the lower 40s northwest to lower 50s far southeast.
A broad upper level trough of low pressure over Nevada and Utah will drop south through Arizona tonight and then close off over far southern Arizona Wednesday. There will be lots of mid and high level moisture but not much of the low level moisture needed for meaningful amounts of precipitation.
332 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will weaken Thursday ahead of a cold front. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. The moisture is shallow because of ridging at the surface and aloft. Wind should be light with the ridge over the area today. The models indicate considerable upper moisture moving into the area from the west north of a flattening upper ridge. The ridging over the area will continue to weaken Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Leaned toward the higher temperatures guidance. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north.
332 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis shows southwesterly flow over the Central Plains with a ridge to our east and a trough axis extending from western Wyoming into western AZ. At the surface, low pressure was centered over the Texas Panhandle with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast across central and northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and into far southeast Iowa.
152 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A broad area of high pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday. A cold front approaches Thursday and moves across the region Thursday evening.
The current situation has a long wave trough from AZ into the Rockies with a leading short wave moving into the High Plains which has induced lift from there into Iowa which is mainly driven by broad 1-3km warm/theta-e advection.
255 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016 Main concerns in this forecast are the amount of convection today with the upper level system, then with the cold front late Wednesday and Thursday as they move through AR. The upper high pressure ridge was centered over the southeast US with a southwest upper flow into AR. Better chances of rain will be tonight and on Thursday, as the cold front gradually sags southeast into AR to then pushes south during the day Thursday. Winds do shift to the northwest then northeast with the cold front, as well as cool temperatures to much closer to normal values, while still above normal values.
1107 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Water vapor shows splitting trof moving through the wrn conus with w/sw flow aloft through the nrn plains. trof is pushing through the wrn dakotas. Weak energy associated with nrn stream of splitting trof will bring a few -shra. skies will quickly clear behind departing wave with upper ridge beginning to build back into the nrn rockies. Strong upper ridging will continue across the region through the end of the week.
346 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A low pressure system is expected to bring a slight chance of showers, primarily from Merced County to Yosemite.
302 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Predawn water vapor loop showed a upper trough from central MT through western WY, UT to the Desert Southwest. Upper trough to the west shifts east across the CWA today with cool dry northwest flow.
High pressure is building and will bring dry and seasonably mild weather to the region for the rest of the work week.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over southwest Hudson Bay with a trough extending into MAN. An northwest-southeast orientated jet was on the southwest portion of the low. trough will move through the area today and may produce flurries/very light snow in the northeast zones. Another upper level trough/jet streak will move through Sat night with more flurries/very light snow.
An additional travel impact may come from snow drifting across the above freezing highways this afternoon, melting, then refreezing overnight through early Saturday morning resulting in icy spots. Highs Saturday will reach the lower to middle 30s across western/central ND.
141 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 A weak disturbance wl clip the northeast corner of Colorado this evening in the 01-04z windows, with a drier northerly flow for the rest of tonight and Saturday, as an amplified ridge over the west coast. Gusty northerly winds will continue above timberline on Saturday with ridgetop winds in the 35-40 mph range. Adjusted the low temperatures in the mountains and high valleys based off the much colder temperatures this morning.
1155 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 A long wave trough is setting itself up over the Eastern portions of the US which will provide a persistent Northwest flow over the region for the short term.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a sharply positively tilted trough from the Great Lakes to southern California with nearly zonal flow across Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northwest and winds were generally from the east. The upper level trough will move across Texas during this period. Chances for showers will shift to the southern half of the area Saturday as the upper trough sags southward.
1131 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain over eastern Canada through the weekend with high pressure extending from the plains to the southeastern part of the country.
316 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Quiet and seasonably cold temperatures will be the story tonight, as a large ridge of high pressure at the sfc out of the Plains states takes aim at the SE region. In fact, both Huntsville and Muscle Shoals are approaching the 17 day mark where temps have remained above freezing. The flow pattern aloft though is xpcted to be fairly active as a longwave trough axis out of the Great Lakes digs swd into the wrn/cntrl Gulf region. As the brunt of the upper trough axis gets closer to the cntrl TN Valley on Sun, clouds will likely be on the increase, as moisture thickness around H7 and below tries to increase.
316 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Skies are continuing to clear out as an upper level trough axis pushes to our south and meridional flow settles overhead. Winds will be light overnight thanks to surface ridging.
High clouds should spill over the upper ridge to the west and advect over the area but some sunshine still expected.
Temperatures will remain steady in the low to mid 30s today under overcast skies.
425 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A strong low pressure system over eastern Canada will remain nearly stationary over the weekend maintaining cold northwest flow and occasional mainly lake effect snow showers across our area.
Seasonably cold weather will prevail through the weekend with the region positioned between an upper level low over eastern Canada and an upper level high off the U.
231 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Region remains in zonal flow within a broad trough located over the U.
Overnight temperatures will be near the low 30s south of I-20, and the mid 20s north of the I-20 corridor. Saturday temperatures will warm up by 20 degrees or more with temperatures near the lower 60s to the mid 50s with partly cloudy skies most of the day. This will be a great time to take advantage of the lower relative humidity and dew point temperatures we normally see, along with light winds all outdoor activities will be nice. Saturday, another front will move through the area and bring a re-enforcing shot of cooler air and dry conditions.
Another cool day is expected for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, with high temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, thanks to continuing high-amplitude mid-level ridge over western North America. Longwave trof from Hudson Bay to 4-corners expected to traverse forecast area by early this evening.
Tonight, anticipate the mentioned clouds will limit radiational cooling somewhat in at least southern zones and lows down there were kept a degree or two warmer there in comparison to prior forecasts. For those specific folks the temps may not quite get down to freezing, although elsewhere anticipate lows at or a little below freezing. Confidence is high that tomorrow will be a sunnier day for a majority of the region as the upper level jet streak shifts further to the south and forces the higher stream of clouds more along the coast.
1135 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 A positively tilted and elongated upper level trough will move southward through our area today. Highs today will be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous day, and slightly below normal for late January.
A weak impulse in the upper atmosphere will continue to rotate out of the central Mississippi valley and across the lower Ohio valley this evening and tonight. A dusting or less of snowfall is expected for most locations, but some ridgetops around the area could pick up a tenth of an inch or so of snow accumulation before the night is out.
Recent real-time data, PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings indicate that drier conditions in combination with gradually warmer temperatures should be noted over the majority of the forecast district into tonight as upper system pulls east of the region with cool northerly upper flow anticipated.
342 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A cold front will cross the region Friday night with northwesterly winds and colder air moving in for the weekend.
342 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 (Tonight and Saturday) Mid/upper level trough axis will swing across the area tonight, bringing a chance for some light precipitation to southern sections this evening. Temperature profiles support some snow mixing in with the rain for areas west of a San angelo to Sonora line this evening, with rain possibly becoming all snow across the higher terrain of Irion and Crockett counties by mid evening. Surface temperatures are expected to remain above freezing this evening (mid/upper 30s)where snow is possible, so no hazardous travel conditions are expected. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across the Big Country, to the lower 30s elsewhere.
This low level cloud deck is advancing northward and should spread across much of the area in the next few hours. Have decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the Lower Texas Gulf waters from now through Noon Saturday due to adverse marine conditions. Tonight and tomorrow, the rainfall becomes more likely in coverage, as the available moisture continues to increase ahead of a 500 mb trough that will drop south from the Desert Southwest into central Texas and northern Mexico.
The upper pattern remains highly amplified this morning with strong ridging along the west coast and a broad, negatively tilted trough that extends from the Canadian Maritimes all the way to the Baja Peninsula. West coast ridge will amplify significantly as the period progresses keeping the area in a pronounced northwest flow aloft.
The Interior Northwest is under an upper level ridge today, and will be under this ridge through the weekend. Thus will continue the current freezing fog advisory over portions of the foothills, and have added an advisory for the Simcoe Highlands.
Could see some additional warming through the day today as a result and warmer temperatures than models are depicting on Saturday also.
Mid level trough axis is rotating through from the central plains northeast into the Great Lakes area. Mean flow within this layer should carry the cloud cover southeast by mid morning, bringing a warmer and sunny afternoon over northeast Kansas. Could see a few flurries in mainly northeast areas as at least one wave rotates south-southeast around the upper low in eastern Canada.
Cloud cover and only very weak cold advection will result temperatures nearly steady today, ranging from the upper 20s over the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the upper 30s across the Lower Susq Valley. Both the SPC SSEO and NCAR ensemble target the Laurel Ridge, along with NW Warren Co, with additional snowfall amounts tonight of 1-2 inches, while the rest of the advisory area is likely to see less than an additional inch.
High temperatures today will mainly be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s with some mid 30s in the downslope area along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills. Western upper level ridge will gradually shift east but Dakotas will remain on the eastern edge with fast north- northwest flow aloft continuing.
456 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain stalled over Labrador tonight. Weak high pressure will build over the area Saturday.
A short wave trough over the area early this morning was inducing some scattered snow showers downstream across northern Indiana, though weak subsidence developing in its wake should allow only a few flurries across the cwa this morning.
Main upper level trough axis will remain over the region with a secondary short wave moving into the area Saturday morning.
The back edge of the low clouds is making its way eastward into south central WI late this afternoon.
Saturday the low level flow shifts from west to southwest.
Based on persistence forecast, have included scattered flurries with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.
Currently, a trough extends from a mid/upper level low in eastern Canada southwest into southern California, with zonal flow over Texas. At the surface, another cold front is moving through the area tonight, and will result in another cool day today with highs expected to reach into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Since temperatures should remain warmer than freezing most of the night, no accumulation is expected. Expect lows to be a slightly warmer overall tonight as cloudcover will slow cooling somewhat.
250 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A strong low pressure system over eastern Canada will remain nearly stationary over the weekend maintaining cold northwest flow and occasional mainly lake effect snow showers across our area.
1024 AM PST Fri Jan 27 2017 High pressure will strengthen over the area today and persist through the weekend.
Highs will range from the lower to mid 30s. Weak short wave rotating through the upper trough will keep a chance of snow showers on Saturday night.
the low levels of the atmosphere should remain too dry for any precip to reach the ground this evening. approaching mid level trough. Isolated areas across the NE Brush Country may briefly flirt with the freezing levels.
One vort max is exiting the area this afternoon, but another one is close on its heels as a broad trough will remain over the eastern ConUS. Much like we have seen today, forcing will be weak, so there will be little accumulation outside the highest elevations. Even in the higher terrain, less than a half inch is expected tonight. Nearly full sun should bring temps in the southern half into the upper 40s, with partial sun holding temps in the lower to mid 40s north.
215 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 The weather pattern over the western half of the contiguous US will remain rather uneventful over the next 24 to 48 hours as high pressure reigns and active weather impacts the Great Lakes region. This means a whole lot of temperature inversions in snow covered valleys across eastern UT and western CO as long as high pressure persists over the region.
A broad mid to upper trof over much of the eastern conus this morning will continue to shift south reaching the northern gulf coast by sat afternoon. Most of the model guidance continues to show a series of mid level impulses within the base of the trof tracking from east TX to the GA/Carolina coast through sat afternoon. Tonights lows will range from the lower to middle 30s for most inland locations and the mid 30s to around 40 along the immediate coast.
an elongated upper trough axis moves south across the area today. a 585dm high pressure area slowly moves toward the California coast with strong northerly flow across our area. 850mb temperatures warm about 2F to 6F supporting highs in the low to upper 40s.
Temperatures could dip down near freezing across the far northern AL/GA counties, and mid 30s to low 40s are expected elsewhere.
High pressure remains today with a persistent, strong inversion. Below freezing temperatures will continue over the next couple of days under the influence of the ridge and its inversion. A strong ridge of high pressure continues to fold west to east across the Pacific Northwest. The ridge of high pressure is expected to remain overhead and strengthen through Saturday. Winds will be light under the inversion, and for most mountain and ridge tops as well. With the ridge in place and very limited moisture there is little chance of precipitation across the area.
1205 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest today and will cross the region tonight.
elongated trough axis extends from eastern Canada southwest right through the Nation's midsection and into the Desert Southwest. Despite the warmer temps, a strengthening pressure gradient will result in gusty winds this afternoon with speeds approaching 25 mph at times.
Gusty northwest winds still expected over the northeast plains this aftn which may anticyclone with north/northeast winds into Denver. Highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the east. Meanwhile with fairly decent flow in the lower to mid lvls along with decent sfc gradient across nern CO both days there will be gusty NNW winds across the plains. Meanwhile with downslope flow developing should see warmer temps on Mon with readings in the 55 to 60 degree range across nern CO. Over nern CO another surge of cooler air may affect the plains which will keep temps nr seasonal levels.
/BB/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures are expected. Early morning water vapor imagery/surface analysis had a negatively tilted trough axis from the Great Lakes region extending southwest back across the desert southwest. Latest surface analysis had a ridge axis from the western CONUS extending across the southern plains and our CWA that will remain in place through tonight. Highs today will be in the low to mid 50s followed by a night of at or below freezing temperatures.
The strong western states ridge of high pressure will remain in control over the next several days, at least well through this weekend.
308 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Dry and cool conditions prevailed across the MO Ozarks / SE KS this afternoon as the region remains under the influence of a large area of high pressure centered over the northern Rockies.
1014 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 The current satellite water vapor image is showing a broad trough of low pressure stretching over the United States with high pressure building over the Eastern Pacific.
A broad, nearly east-west oriented trough remains in place today through the weekend, preventing any meaningful moisture return from the Gulf.
Short-term forecast will be dominated by a parade of disturbances swinging through a broad upper trof covering much of the eastern CONUS.
226 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Continental high pressure will keep dry and chilly conditions over the region through the short term period.
Snow chances will continue through the weekend, with additional accumulation expected across the high terrain.
314 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 A positive tilt upper level trough axis continues to slowly move south through the region today. Ahead of the upper trough, weak frontogenetical lift is acting to create some light rain and cloud cover across Central and West Texas. However, very dry air in the lower levels is causing most of the precipitation to evaporate/sublime before reaching the surface. Still a few sprinkles or some measurable light rain may be possible across the southwestern and southern zones this evening before all of the mid/upper level lift/moisture shifts southeast of the region with the upper trough. Generally clear skies by daybreak will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s across most of the CWA, but winds look to stay up just enough to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night.
Weak ridging aloft and continued downsloping west winds should even break a few holes in the clouds at times, allowing for some brief (and lately rare) periods of sunshine.
327 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this morning has a broad trough of low pressure across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. A positive tilted trough of low pressure extended from the mid Mississippi valley west southwest to Baja California. West of this feature, ridging extended up the west coast into southwestern Canada. falls noted over the lower Ohio valley. The forecast area was situated between high pressure across the central Rockies with low pressure located over Quebec. Saturday will be similar to today with northwest winds and similar 850mb temperatures so have decided to go warmer than models are projecting for highs by a few degrees, as models were a little cool with highs today.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1030 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This is keeping temps a little warmer over those sections with readings in the mid 30s.
The region will remain in a mid to upper level trough though. Combination of high cloudiness and winds stirring through the night are expected to keep temperatures above freezing.
Meanwhile, the upper trough will begin to amplify as it moves into the MS Valley. Although forecast guidance is still differing on the overall solution of this trough, the timing and placement of its movement is very similar.
As far as temperatures, should see some clearing this evening, but northwest winds stay up and should prevent temperatures from falling off too much, so expect lows generally in the lower-mid 20s. Decent mixing and a little low level warming Saturday should allow readings to climb above freezing along/west of the James River, with highs right around 30 for most of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa.
With passing clouds and mixing sfc winds maintaining at least 8-12 MPH overnight, will keep most lows in the low to mid 20s.
Further to the northwest, the latest water vapor and infrared satellite imagery was showing a short wave trough moving southeast across southern Manitoba.
248 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 Continued northwesterly flow is on tap for tonight and tomorrow with a longwave trough positioned over the eastern CONUS. High temperatures will vary little between today and Saturday with low temps tonight slightly warmer than last night owing to the possibility of high level clouds passing through.
Have maintained the higher SLRs as there looks to be decent cloud depth and lift through the DGZ based on BUFKIT soundings.
Winds are quickly turning north behind the front, which will hold high temps in the low-mid 70s around the lake where cool air advection is already commencing. The front will shift winds to the west northwest and usher in cooler and much drier air across the region. High temperatures will be closer to average after today's near record warmth, ranging from the lower 70s to around 80. The short term period will feature dry weather on Saturday as high pressure briefly ridges into the region from the north.
The next feature to key on is a s/w trof currently located over the upper midwest which will slide into the area this evening and exit late tonight. So expect an increase in the coverage of snow showers once again across the area with some additional skiffs for the Lowlands and a general 1 to 3 inches for the high terrain. I have roughly 3 to 6 inches coded up across the northern mountains by Saturday morning with 1 to 2 inches along and east of the I 79 corridor in the Lowlands. Temps will not budge much today with lower 30s in the Lowlands and generally 20s in the mountains.