Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
303 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 Gusty winds will diminish through the night as an area of high pressure slowly builds into the region. This area of high pressure will create dry weather this weekend. 00z Upstream sounding at BUF is very dry and expect clouds to slowly dissipate later this morning as this dry air mass associated with surface through mid-level high pressure gradually builds toward the area from the west. Tonight will be chilly with overnight lows near or just below freezing in most areas.
Southwest return flow around the high at the surface and aloft creating gusty southwest winds across the west and especially north gusting to 15 to 30 mph. The short term continues to be dominated by a quasi-stationary h500 ridge across the northern plains. The lee-side trough will move east and approach the Dakotas tonight and move into the western Dakotas Saturday afternoon.
140 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 Temps are milder than the past couple of nights despite the passage of a cold front earlier on Friday into central MS/AL/GA. Current water vapor imagery depicts a sharp upper trough axis with sheared vorticity dropping south across the Ohio River into the Ozark Plateau.
1121 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure from the northern plains and upper midwest will move southeast across the Ohio Valley this weekend.
450 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 VFR conditions and only some passing high clouds are expected through the TAF period as high pressure settles in over the Ohio Valley. Low pressure tracking across Hudson Bay and northern Quebec will tighten the surface pressure gradient over Michigan this afternoon, allowing southwest winds to increase to between 10 and 15 knots. As it does so, the wind will pick up from the southwest during the afternoon and scour out the cold air in the low levels. The low pressure system off the Pacific NW coast today will move inland and erode the long wave ridge over the central states tonight.
High pressure will settle to the south today, while low pressure moves across southern Canada tonight.
243 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn Rockies/nrn plains with upper trof entering the pac nw. trof is advancing through ern MT/ern WY. Thermal ridge passes overhead with sfc trof working into the cwfa today, resulting in warm, dry, and breezy conditions.
225 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 High pressure with well below freezing temperatures tonight.
Zonal flow sets up across the Gulf of Mexico extending over the Florida peninsula with high pressure keeping control of the area returning light easterly winds across S Florida this weekend.
1159 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Light southwest flow will develop late tonight as high pressure settles south of the area. Dry air associated with this high will also maintain VFR conditions with only increasing cirrus Saturday. Rather sharp west-east aligned trough/thermal trough (-5 C to -7 C at 850 mb) quickly tracking south through southern Lower Michigan this afternoon. Set up for a very nice weekend (clear skies) as the upper level ridge axis extends from the upper level ridge expanding into the Plains.
917 PM MST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure ridge axis is currently centered over the state this evening and this trend will continue overnight. Current temperatures are in the lower 40s to lower 50s. The ridge over the western US will continue into tomorrow. A quick Pacific through moving into southern Canada tomorrow night break the ridge down some. This will also bring a little higher chance of the high elevation precip.
319 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 High pressure will build across the eastern U.
Unseasonably warm conditions are still expected Tue-Thu as the ridge over the SW CONUS slides east. Breezy S to SSW surface winds will develop by Wed afternoon as a mid to upper trough moves into the Intermountain West region, and continue Thu as the trough nears the plains. As it appears right now, a cold front will accompany this trough sometime late Thu but timing details are still unclear.
1130 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front had just about moved through all of the Metroplex TAF sites as of 1115 PM. The air immediately behind this front isn't all that much cooler, but drier air will gradually seep into at least the northern half of our CWA overnight. A cold front that extends southeast of a Muskogee Oklahoma to Wichita Falls to Lubbock line at 3 PM will continue to move southeast through the rest of the forecast area tonight. Despite the mostly sunny skies on Saturday, highs will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, ranging from the lower 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
Dry and seasonable conditions can be expected through much of the period with high pressure in control. Late in the period, a cold front could bring some showers and even a few thunderstorms. /Today/ High pressure and upper ridging will build into the area today bringing sunny skies. Even with a cold start, the sunshine and dry air will boost temperatures to near MOS values in the lower 50s.
248 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 Ample mid and upper level subsidence was evident on water vapor imagery this morning as a positively titled trough continued to dig south across the southern Plains all the way to the East Coast. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than yesterday and more seasonable as cooler air aloft briefly moves through the area. With high pressure clipping eastern portions of the region, winds should remain fairly light and become south- southwesterly throughout the overnight hours.
Expect VFR conditions to return by afternoon behind a weak cold front. WV imagery shows the persistent upper trough remains centered over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but this feature is poised to begin moving east in around 24 hours.
Short wave trough to move across central Canada this morning. An upper level ridge axis over the MT/ND border will shIft over eastern ND today and to the east tonight. Wind will shift west Sun morning and cooler air will follow Sun afternoon/evening.
1105 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A quiet weather pattern continues across the area this afternoon, as high pressure builds south into the region behind a passing dry cold front. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s tonight, with just a bit of passing high cloud cover. Winds will be light and easterly as the high moves overhead.
1230 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 A cold front has moved south of the region, and a dry area of high pressure is moving into the Ohio Valley from the north. This high will remain in place through the weekend, with no precipitation expected.
309 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 High pressure with well below freezing temperatures tonight.
/Issued 543 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ For the 00Z TAFs, some potential for patchy radiational fog or freezing fog to develop at the terminal sites late tonight into early Saturday morning, with the greatest likelihood at KAMA. Have included MVFR vsbys at all sites from about 09Z until 15Z Saturday to account for this fog or freezing fog potential. Should any fog or freezing fog develop, it should erode by around 15Z Saturday. /Issued 308 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ No big surprises or changes with this forecast: Freezing and near- freezing temperatures tonight with freeze warning and frost advisory being in effect.
317 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 A 1032 mb high pressure center over eastern Iowa this morning will settle southeastward across central IL today.
1053 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Expecting some middle to high clouds as the upper level low remains over the southwest. The persistent upper level low pressure system to our west is finally beginning to weaken and open back into a trough. High-res models are showing fairly widespread coverage in forecasted radar reflectivity but the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will be too dry for much of it to reach the ground. Another trough can currently be seen pushing through the upper mid-west and this trough will continue to move south and send another frontal boundary through the CWA tomorrow morning.
Dewpoints are currently in the middle 70s and afternoon temperatures are expected rise into the low to mid 90s. It looks several degrees warmer with similar dewpoints. But with warmer temperatures aloft, the area should remain capped through the day, inhibiting showers and storms. Tomorrow night, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest.
High temperatures are expected to range from the lower to mid 90s.
Temperatures should still rapidly increase into the lower to mid 100s over the Rio Grande Plains later this afternoon, while increasing into the upper 90s to lower 100s elsewhere.
254 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 * Heavy rainfall event expected for this weekend * Excessive rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding * Cooler temperatures are forecast along with the rain Right now, am seeing popcorn convection developing in something like a band 80 miles wide from Big Bend National Park north- northeastward to the north central Permian Basin.
537 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area. The forecast area remains positioned between the upper low along the Gulf coast and the upper ridge axis extending through the Delmarva region. The upper low along the Gulf coast weakens near Mobile and New Orleans while the upper ridge over the western Atlantic builds westward on Thursday. Forecast instability is also weak with weak shear because of upper ridging.
Seasonable weather conditions will continue today as a broad trough remains over the West Coast. A gradual warming trend is then expected for late week and into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Trough influence will gradually wane through today and begin to lift out of the area by late tonight. A pattern shift will then occur as high pressure will then gradually build into the area beginning tomorrow and then strengthening late in the week/into the weekend.
The cold front dropping through Wrn SD and Nrn Wy moves very slowly and will not clear Srn Neb until Thursday evening.
303 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 High pressure remains situated well to our southeast over the Caribbean Sea with a weakness edging onto the Western Gulf coastline. To our west, respectable trough axis is allowing the upper jet to dip into the desert southwest before swinging into the Northern Plains.
223 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2016 The center of the upper level low is now over north-central Montana and slowly moving off to the east.
Temperatures will creep up a bit more today, approaching the 100 degree mark across portions of the lower Arkansas River Valley once again.
Region is between Low pressure to the West, which is migrating further Westward, and high pressure building the Northeast.
A few spots could climb into the lower 90s, if cloud cover is less than expected.
Dewpoints were in the lower 70s south of the developing warm front. The warm front as of mid afternoon was located across central Minnesota, and into far northern Wisconsin. Surface analysis indicates high surface based CAPE south of the warm front, with relatively stable air across northeastern MN due to easterly winds and earlier convection.
Highs today will depend on cloud cover but should be close to if not a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Heat indices will approach 100-105 with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 70s. Elevated convection in warm air advection regime could spread over the forecast area overnight but main forcing will come with a surface cold front that is slated to move into our northern counties by Thursday afternoon.
1220 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016 Pretty active in the short term with fire weather issues today and then rain chances with a cold front moving into the area tonight into Thursday. Cold front extends south from the low to just west of Casper, to near Rock Springs to just south of Salt Lake City.
With an upper ridge still dominating the region, rain chances remain very low for today and tonight.
Building high pressure will result in a warming trend over the next several days with inland temperatures reaching the triple digits by the weekend. This vort max coupled with daytime heating has been generating a fair amount of cumulus over the higher terrain, primarily over Trinity county. An isolated light shower or sprinkle may develop and we have maintained precip chances of 10% or less for the higher terrain. After the passage of this vort, strong ridging aloft will begin to build over the area tonight and remain in place through the end of the week.
124 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
Afternoon heating and an embedded short wave trough will produce shower activity over the mountains that moves onto the plains later this afternoon. Could be some stronger storms with heavy rain and small hail over the far Northeast plains with higher moisture values in the lower levels. A jet of southwesterly flow aloft will move over the state Thursday as an upper trough moves from the Great Basin over the Rockies. A theta-e ridge axis will push into the northeastern corner of the state while the jet is aloft, with bulk shear increasing through the afternoon. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler compared to todays readings as cooler air will already be pushing into the state behind a cold front expected to push south into the state during the morning.
Southerly flow at the surface helping to advect moisture into the region and dewpoints have climbed into the lower 70s across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will then spread into central IL from the northwest Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
On Thursday the eastern Colorado boundary will slide east into far western Kansas as a cold front drops south into northwest Kansas by the mid to late afternoon. Based on the 2-3C warm up in the 850mb temperatures ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon the previous forecast still looks on track with highs climbing back into the mid to upper 90s. At this time did favor slightly cooler temperatures in areas where more afternoon cloud cover is anticipated.
A ridge of high pressure remains over South Central Texas this afternoon with relatively dry and stable air at midlevels evident on water vapor imagery and local soundings. Although this ridge continues to block deeper moisture that remains just to our east in Louisiana with a broad inverted trough, shallow boundary layer moisture continues to stream in from the Gulf over the region. High temperatures tomorrow may be a degree or so warmer than today ranging from the upper 90s in the parts of the Hill Country to mid 100s in the Rio Grande Plains as the ridge intensifies slightly.
352 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 High pressure will linger off the Mid Atlantic coast through the weekend.
Confidence is high that maxes Thu will be the hottest of this forecast package as 850mb temps spike just ahead of the cold front passage. In addition, the cold front will start its southward push across the central/southern Plains Thu evening through Fri.
351 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 The primary forecast question in the short term will continue to be the high heat levels in place. Outflow from these storms could increase surface layer moisture even more, and if they do not significantly lower the temperature, we could see localized spikes in heat index into the low 110s.
Satellite imagery shows that the upper level low that has been affecting us for the last several days is continuing to move northeast away from the area. Temperatures today will start rebounding with the lower elevations generally 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday and the mountains around 10 degrees warmer. Tonight the offshore ridge will expand over our area for a generally clear and warmer night, especially in the mountains. Made a couple of small changes to the low temperatures and sky cover tonight.
Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms should remain over northeast Mississippi today and this is where the highest pops will be confined (50 pop). and the highest amount of cloud cover was over the southern and eastern Midsouth counties. Low pressure near the central Gulf Coast with surface shear axis extending north into Mississippi will drift northwestward into southern Arkansas before weakening to the point of no identification.
137 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Aviation High pressure centered over Michigan will keep the weather mainly dry into tonight. The pattern starts to change Thursday as a slow moving cold front nears from the northwest.
The highest chances for thunderstorms will be over the weekend as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s.
204 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Low pressure will linger along the northern Gulf Coast today, before Atlantic high pressure builds over the by late week. Elsewhere, highs will reach to around 90 and the low 90s.
The long awaited rainfall event is now underway as the sfc and upper low slowly move westward across the Gulf coast. The abnormally high moisture combined with the sfc and upper lows and the slow motions of the showers and thunderstorms will create conditions favorable for heavy rain. The heavy rain threat continues through Thursday with some heavier rain spreading into Southeastern Mississippi as the low tracks westward.
Models continue their previous trend of drifting the low to the west and northwest through the next few days, before getting absorbed into a frontal system.
Upper level low centered along the AB/MT border at mid-day today will track NE into SK this afternoon. Moisture/light precipitation wrapping around the back side of the low may impact the KCTB and KHVR terminals this afternoon with possible brief MVFR ceilings.
A weak low pressure system will bring isolated thunderstorms to northern and east central nevada this afternoon and evening. high pressure will bring dry weather with a warming trend Thursday through the weekend.
Large scale high pressure ridge over South Texas keeping a tight lid on the region. The H5 ridge remains in place, continuing the compressional heating areawide.
This has caused heat indices to reach the lower to mid 100s at most locations. A cold front is expected to move in from the northwest during the overnight. The upper trough and associated cold front will sag into the area Thu night.
1047 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will exit the area today, with a decreasing trend of clouds and showers.
On Thursday, a weak cold front is forecast to drop out of Wyoming around midday and move across northeast Colorado through mid- afternoon. There will be a slight chance of showers developing behind the cold front, but most of the activity should be later in the day as the front stalls over the Palmer Divide. Mountain areas should be little affected by the cold front, but afternoon heating should be sufficient for showers to develop over the elevated terrain.
/Tonight/ Warm front has been lifting very slowly north across central Iowa today.
Accompanying trof extends west-southwest across southeast Louisiana and south-central Louisiana, and then into the northwest gulf waters. This morning low pressure from the mid levels to the surface is centered over the Florida Panhandle. The sub-tropical ridge is building west from the Atlantic gradually pushing the low to the west. Deep tropical moisture is associated with the low with PWATS of 2. 5 arcoss portions of Acadiana today as this low draws closer.
A pesky upper low along the AL/FL Gulf coast, generally cut-off from the westerlies was sending periods of clouds. The lower clouds, mainly a strata-cumulus variety have suppressed maximum potential heating across the area. This slightly cooler trend has also tempered the development of more substantial showers and thunderstorms. But unlike the last few days of very slow cell/storm movement, a more apparent circulation around the upper low was producing a cell movement to the NW in the 15-20 mph range.
It appears much of the CWA will enjoy relatively cool temperatures for this time of year over the next couple of days as a broad trough axis slides over the region.
Tonight Through Thursday A cold front has moved south across much of northern Wyoming. some showers and thunderstorms will be over the mountains and spread east over the lower elevations. The cold front will push farther south and west tonight making it most of the way through the southwest. This will bring an end to the red flag conditions with northeast winds cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Thursday night Through Wednesday Some showers and thunderstorms will linger over the area Thursday night with most areas being cooler behind the cold front.
We will continue the higher pop solution for now. as believe some convection will drop south and east over the region during the night as upper trough approaches. Because of the high uncertainty in overall location/development of convection into tonight.
107 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 High pressure off the east coast will remain there through the weekend.
An upper trough centered over southeast Alberta this afternoon continues to drift east-northeast. But as the upper low traverses southern Sask tonight, instability should increase a bit and increase the shower threat from the NW.
Currently we have deep upper level trough over the western U. MCS was tracking across eastern Dakotas early this morning with stout low level jet across much of the high Plains. Closer to home, area was convection free with a soupy airmass as temperatures and dewpoints were both in the low to mid 70s. For today, the heat and humidity will continue across the area, with similar, but slightly warmer conditions to yesterday. Not much to focus organized convection so will keep pops on the lower end at this juncture. The upper trough will gradually slide east into the Rockies on Thursday which will help to draw more low level moisture and warming into the area.
325 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) Upper level high has shifted farther east and is not dominating the weather pattern quite as much as it has in recent days. Convection has developed along the edge of the ridge, extending from the Trans Pecos north into the Permian Basin and then into the northwest Big Country.
/ISSUED / Upper level subsidence persists with the southwestward expansion of the mid-Atlantic centered 595 dam upper ridge into the lower Mississippi River Valley. 5H heights will fall by a few meters as relatively lower northern GOM heights advance west and, with central plains shallow troughing pushing a weak mid-level boundary towards the Red River Valley, late week into weekend conditions will become more cloudy and unsettled.
253 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 Continued, worsening heat and humidity is the immediate forecast focus, with attention turning to a pattern change and the resulting effects of a seasonally strong cold front this weekend. Similar conditions with slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow.
257 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2016 High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through the weekend.
RAP13 indicated a short wave trough in southwesterly flow aloft was responsible for nocturnal showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado early this morning.
Temperatures were indicated from model consensus, which is cooler than normal due to extensive rainfall and cloud cover next couple of days. Frontal zone eventually merges and lifts the system northward but Bermuda ridge appears to win out in keeping the front to the west of the forecast area and dissipating.
Visible satellite shows cumulus build-up along the higher terrain across southern Oregon and northern California as expected. Despite the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model showing a few isolated blips, will keep t-storms out of the forecast for this afternoon. Otherwise, the overall pattern is changing to become hotter and drier over the next few days as a ridge builds in.
Hot and Humid through Thursday - Heavy Rain Potential this The hot and very humid weather will continue through Thursday as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature.