Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cool and breezy conditions will persist through Tuesday as Pacific moisture and a cold front move toward the area. Sub-tropical moisture is streaming northeastward toward this boundary and across much of southern and central Arizona, ahead of a weak upper low in the eastern Pacific. Showers are also possible later Tuesday afternoon, which will be associated with the sub-tropical moisture and upper low, but these will primarily be over southeastern Arizona.
203 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017 Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, but with breezy southwest winds up to 20 mph it won't feel warmer.
After this happens, main item of note today will be the warm temperatures as most locations should warm into the lower 60s by mid/late afternoon. Quick look at 850-hPa anomaly data suggest todays 850 temps will be 1-2 standard deviations above normal, with these increasing even further tomorrow ahead of tomorrow afternoon's cold front. Following tomorrow's fropa, reality will quickly return to the area beginning tomorrow night as cold air sweeps southward as high pressure builds down across the Plains/Midwest. Fri's high temps will be noticeably cooler with low to mid 30s expected for most locations.
Upper level is quasi-stationary, but will tilt more to southwest flow by tonight as a positively tilted mean longwave trough develops in the western United States. I did this in response of what happened yesterday, which wound up being warmer than I had originally thought. A long-awaited cold front will pass through Thursday, which will give us cooler high temperatures in the 40s in south central Nebraska to lower 50s in north central Kansas, but the much cooler air arrive by Thursday night with lows in our northern CWA in the single digits to teens for north central Kansas.
Southerly winds continued to bring warmer weather into the region, with temperatures ranging from the teens to lower 20s. South winds ahead of a cold front in southern Canada will allow temperatures to climb through the 30s, to near 40 across the region by this afternoon. The cold front will then push southward across the region tonight and Thursday.
The upper level low pressure system off the California coast will turn back to the east and weaken as it moves through Arizona and southern Utah this evening. The next trough will move into Utah from the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Thursday.
1100 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Stationary frontal boundary over central FL expected to dissipate over the next 12-24hrs as a broad H100-H70 anticyclone extending from the Carolinas to the N FL Peninsula consolidates over FL and the ern GOMex. Shallow but brisk N/NE flow in the wake of the front will prevail through aftn, while moisture pooling within the frontal trof H100-H70 will keep considerable clouds in place. This will keep max temps noticeably cooler than recent day, with aftn readings in the L/M70s along and north of I-4. High moisture pooling within the frontal trof will combine with the light winds and cool shelf waters to generate widespread fog thru the aftn off the Volusia CO coast.
636 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 High pressure slides offshore of the New England coast through today. A warm front will lift north this afternoon into Thursday bringing scattered showers.
Low level flow will continue to veer today with low clouds eroding from west to east and much warmer afternoon temps expected. Strong cold front enters NE OK late Thurs afternoon and continues a quick progression southward overnight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm will be possible along and trailing the sfc boundary with the higher coverage expected from far E OK through NW AR.
Elsewhere around central Illinois, increasing cloud cover will be noted with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s far north around Galesburg and Lacon. Low pressure will track from the Plains across north-central Illinois on Thursday. With the low tracking across the area, there will be a significant north-south temperature gradient. Once the low tracks into Ohio, it will drag a cold front southward through Illinois Thursday night.
936 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Low pressure will move across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Despite the cloud cover southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures. The chance of rain will continue Thursday night as a cold front drops southeastward through our area, especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.
628 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather today.
Models suggest that the low-level humidity will mix out over north central WI this morning, resulting in mostly sunny skies across the forecast area. On Thursday, a cold front will shift south through the the area during the day. Low-level moisture may deepen enough for patchy freezing drizzle over far north central WI in the morning.
510 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 The cool wedge of high pressure in the forecast area will modify today. The high will shift off the Southeast Coast Thursday.
/issued 314 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
A ridge of high pressure resides along the GA/FL line as an old frontal boundary slowly dissipates today. bridging the boundary. The patchy early morning fog is just about gone but the low clouds are hanging on. Will update the forecasts when all the fog has cleared and the low clouds lift and thin. High pressure ridge axis along Latitude 30 North today will begin to drift south tonight with prevailing northeast and east winds.
The closed low sitting off the SoCal coast will be pushed into the Southwest United States today with the help from an approaching trough upstream moving into the Pacific NW. The closed low off the coast will provide increased moisture across much of the region mainly effecting cloud cover. Southwest flow will accompany the low and approaching trough today before north winds filter in behind the trough by Thursday.
Cooler temperatures can be expected throughout the area today, with some very light rain expected across Humboldt and Del Norte counties late this morning and afternoon.
600 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 The cool wedge of high pressure in the forecast area will modify today. The high will shift off the Southeast Coast Thursday.
1000 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Weak high pressure over the region this morning will slip to our south tonight as a cold front approaches from the north.
1045 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Forecast continues on track with high pressure holding over the region as a weak front meanders to the north. /issued 226 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018/ A stationary front over Central Florida early this morning will slowly dissipate today into tonight allowing for high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters for late this week. Naples will also be near or at records for the highs rest of this week. High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters this weeekend extending back west into the Florida Peninsula. This will keep the cold front well north of the area this weekend and allow for the continuation of dry and above normal temperatures over South Florida this weekend.
Upper flow remains quasi-zonal in nature with broad ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico and upper level low pressure moving down the west coast. Flow will likely become a bit more amplified by the end of the period as the upper low starts to move inland while it transitions into an open wave. Southwest flow will help pull warmer and more moist air into the region today. Come Thursday, upper ridge expands slightly so precipitation chances will be a little lower than previous thinking. A stray shower can not be ruled out but the main story will be the breezy and much warmer conditions as a warm front lifts through.
/Today through Tonight/ Southerly flow continued across Iowa overnight and while a large area of high pressure remained over the far eastern CONUS.
A mid-level trough is noted just off the coast of southern California with southwest flow over most of the southern and central Plains. Southwest surface winds this afternoon will aid in warmer temperatures today with mid-60s still expected near central and east central Kansas. Upper level blocking low off the California coast breaks down and phases with a northern stream wave at the start of the period. Associated H500 height falls attendant to the approaching wave will allow a residual boundary left in the wake of of a passing surface cyclone to begin pushing southward. However, model trends have been slightly slower in the advancement of this strengthening cold front Thu afternoon and have raised temperatures by 3-4 degrees in the warm sector ahead of the front for Thu.
655 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 High pressure will depart to our east and lead to a warming trend heading towards the weekend.
Snow will continue over the higher mtns through Thursday but should lighten in intensity by late in the day. Snowfall over 16 inches possible over the higher, west facing peaks. Elsewhere, a cold front will drop south across the CWA Thursday with some snow showers moving across the area in its wake.
The warmer RAP and HRRR models are preferred for this temperature forecast today, which shows the potential for near 80 in the Red Hills along the Oklahoma border. One more fairly warm day is forecast Thursday before a strong cold front pushes through in the evening. Highs Thursday will be a bit less than today, as cooler 850mb temps will be around with a weak Pacific cold front passage and wind being out of the west. The airmass behind the Thursday Night cold front will certainly be colder, but the true arctic air will miss western Kansas this time.
247 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2018 A low pressure system off the Southern California coast will move through Southern California and weaken today.
906 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Echos are showing up on radar over far northwestern North Dakota, but ceilings remain quite high so have kept precipitation chances on the low side this morning. Currently, a cold front was situated west-east across central Alberta/Saskatchewan. Today the cold front moves south, entering northwestern north Dakota around mid-afternoon, moving into southern ND later this evening, and exiting into South Dakota after midnight. Highs should range from the low and mid 30s north to upper 30s and lower 40s across southern ND. Timing for the cold front and snow chances is a bit slower in the latest model runs. The arrival of arctic air will result in lows tonight ranging from around 5 below in the Turtle Mountains to the lower teens above zero along the SD border.
Several winter weather advisories have been issued for the cold front today and the arctic front tonight with much of the region receiving around an inch of new snow in the lower elevations. This evening through Thursday morning a back door cold front associated with an arctic air mass east of the Continental Divide will slide across western Montana and into central Idaho. The back door cold front will cause stronger winds over 30 mph in the usual places like Badrock Canyon and Highway 200 east of Missoula to Rogers Pass tonight and Thursday morning.
This snowmelt will load the lower boundary layer with moisture, and is expected to lead to some fog development tonight, mainly along and south of I-90. Thursday will see a cold front dropping into the area while a weak wave of low pressure ripples northeast through IL. Small-end rain/snow chances continue Thursday evening as a weak mid-level trough moves through.
1045 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Weak low pressure will track northeast off the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon with another weak trough of low pressure passing by to the north of the region later tonight into Thursday morning.
/issued 429 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ The latest WV imagery and UA analysis show ridging beginning to build aloft over the Gulf of Mexico, while a closed sits off the southern CA coast. With light east to southeast winds over the area, temperatures are anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees warmer than they were 24 hours ago, with readings ranging from the middle 50s north to middle 60s south. 24 Much warmer conditions can be expected today as the warm front continues to progress northward acrs the area. As the Gulf ridge expands in coverage, it will bring slightly drier air over the region while pushing deeper moisture and impulses further north.
Through the morning and into the afternoon a trough of low pressure will move through the area, which will keep a westerly component to the surface wind. The trough of low pressure aloft will shift east on Thursday and allow cold air to fill in behind.
429 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 The latest WV imagery and UA analysis show ridging beginning to build aloft over the Gulf of Mexico, while a closed sits off the southern CA coast. With light east to southeast winds over the area, temperatures are anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees warmer than they were 24 hours ago, with readings ranging from the middle 50s north to middle 60s south. 24 Much warmer conditions can be expected today as the warm front continues to progress northward acrs the area. As the Gulf ridge expands in coverage, it will bring slightly drier air over the region while pushing deeper moisture and impulses further north.
High pressure across Alabama will decrease today as the main ridge center weakens and elongates to a west/east regime from Florida into the Western Atlantic. In the upper levels we have mainly zonal flow starting off with a slight west- southwest stance around a large gulf upper ridge. With our available moisture in place and weak disturbances moving through this flow, will continue with occasional rain showers across the north and west around the ridge and in step with our feed of low level moisture. An anomalous 500mb subtropical ridge will be prevalent throughout the extended part of the forecast, leading to temperatures and dewpoints well above normal for this time of year. On Thursday, the ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico with 500mb heights up to 588dm in our forecast area.
The warm front remains a good bit farther South with low to mid 60s down along I-10. The warm front will follow and lift in across much of the region by later today with little change on the models post frontal for us.
1028 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Hydro High pressure will bring fair weather today.
Otherwise, a stationary front along the Lower Texas Coast will transition to a warm front and move north during the period, allowing an onshore flow to redevelop and prevail for a majority of the period. Dry weather is expected as 500 mb high pressure noses-in from the east and prevails over the BRO CWFA.
357 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 Near zonal flow has developed across the northern Plains, with the next upper trough now pushing into the Pacific NW. Portions of the northern and eastern foothills of the Black Hills may even see temps in the low 50s as downsloping winds enhance warming. A cold front will push through the region tonight into Thursday, cooling temperatures back into the teens and 20s Thursday.
420 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 Fast westerly jet over Montana with strong winds occuring across the ridge tops and high terrain areas. Upper trof dropping through the Pacific Northwest today will drag a cold front south across the state.
520 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 /12Z TAFS/ MVFR/IFR ceilings will continues across West Central Texas terminals this morning, with the low clouds breaking up during the afternoon. Much warmer conditions upcoming, with highs in the 70s.
temps tonight will likely be a bit warmer than last few nights as winds across the plains should keep up, and expect 50s most areas with a few low 60s possible across the far eastern plains. Expect max temps to be 2-3F cooler across the plains tomorrow as compared to today. Higher RH values are likely due to a combination of slightly cooler air and increasing RH values, especially over the far eastern plains.
Rainfall amounts will generally range from a quarter to half inch, with the highest amounts over central Kentucky. By Thursday afternoon, the low-level jet cranks up ahead of the cold front dropping southeast across Indiana.
The past few hourly runs of the ECAM and the 0Z ECMWF are much warmer today, especially in northeast SD and western MN. Thursday is still on track for some light snow to develop as an Arctic boundary moves southward along with lift from an upper level low pressure trough coming in from the northwest.
551 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A trough of low pressure will result in increasing rain chances today.
536 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts multi-stream troughs off the Pacific NW and CA coasts with a downstream belt of confluent mid-level flow from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes. In the low levels, west-southwest winds will develop today in response to the progression of a weak surface cyclone from Saskatchewan into northern MN. with an attendant cold front surging through the mid-MO Valley during the afternoon and evening hours.
Currently, a cold front was situated west-east across central Alberta/Saskatchewan. Today the cold front moves south, entering northwestern north Dakota around mid-afternoon, moving into southern ND later this evening, and exiting into South Dakota after midnight. Highs should range from the low and mid 30s north to upper 30s and lower 40s across southern ND. Timing for the cold front and snow chances is a bit slower in the latest model runs. The arrival of arctic air will result in lows tonight ranging from around 5 below in the Turtle Mountains to the lower teens above zero along the SD border.
950 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Wedge of high pressure persists north of the area today with general northeast-east low level flow. Weak trough remains well offshore and will pull away from the coast.
Upper air map analysis shows an upper trof stretched across southern California with a downstream ridge positioned over the Gulf. Working down to the lower levels, a high pressure ridge over the southeast US was tapping Atlantic moisture with latest night-time microphysics satellite data showing a gradual westward advance of low stratus across the central Gulf coast.
Temperatures will be warmer than normal this afternoon and most sites have already climbed into the low to mid 60s despite the morning cloud cover.
630 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Low pressure will move across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
436 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2018 A weak low pressure system will move across SOCAL today. Another upper low will drop into the Great Basin on Wednesday Night and push a dry cold front through our area on Thursday. Later in the week high pressure will move into the area and bring slightly warmer temperatures.
Cooler temperatures today, then milder heading into the weekend. Current temperatures are running around 5-15 degrees cooler across much of the region compared to 24 hours ago and range from the mid to upper teens in the mountain valleys to the 30s elsewhere, except 40s across the foothill and mountain thermal belts. The exception is the northern San Joaquin Valley and Motherlode where mid-level clouds to the north of the low off the SoCal coast are resulting in a little milder temperatures there. The body of the trough will dig southeast to the east giving NorCal a glancing blow through tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected today along with a chance of snow showers across the mountains into early Thursday. Thursday, dry and slightly milder temperatures return as upper level ridging rebuilds.
Cold front will spread snow into our CWA from the northwest today. Upper trough will shift to our east Thursday leaving partly cloudy skies over our CWA, with scattered light snow showers in the mountains mainly on the Idaho side.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the southern part of the country and a trough over the west coast. The upper ridge will push a bit farther north tonight and should suppress any chance for rain, but patchy fog and drizzle will again be likely over the eastern 2/3 of our CWA.
Much warmer conditions upcoming, with highs in the 70s.
636 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 No major weather impacts expected; however, there could be some light freezing drizzle over the Keweenaw Peninsula late tonight. The fairly quiet weather will linger into the evening hours before a cold front approaches the area overnight tonight and toward Thursday morning. Along and directly behind the cold front 850mb temperatures do not drop too quickly. This, along with shallow moisture will lead to mainly a light freezing drizzle potential late tonight over the Keweenaw, while most of the rest of the U. While not expecting much in the way of accumulation, it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to make untreated roadways and elevated surfaces slippery.
The morning local sounding showed even drier air in the lowest 5000 feet than twelve hours ago.
528 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A trough of low pressure will result in increasing rain chances today.
Based on temperatures yesterday exceeding expectations, I will go along with guidance in even warmer temperatures this period. Fog on the other hand, continues to appear likely Thursday morning, possibly through early afternoon, as weak convergent flow at the surface combine with saturated snow melt air and dewpoints well above freezing. Thursday night, moisture sweeps out of the area, as a cold front arrives, cooling us into the teens and 20s, as this is still a snow covered CWA for the most part at that time.
/issued 550 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
Weak isentropic upglide and a coastal trough has allowed for very light and patchy drizzle to stream across the coastal waters and into eastern portions of South Texas overnight. Onshore flow will return across the region today, while an upper level ridge builds overhead. Will see a few more peaks of sun trying to show through the low level cloud deck today, and temperatures will warm closer to normal (highs lower 70s) with the return of onshore flow. Temperatures tonight will average around 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Thursday will be much warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
A cold front will progress southward through the Tri-State region on Thu as Canadian high pressure builds from the Dakotas to the Central Plains.
618 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region later today into Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog.
409 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Broad southwesterly flow aloft downstream of an upper low off the coast of southern California is drawing plenty of mid-upper level moisture off the eastern Pacific and over the region early this morning. After another mild night tonight, winds will turn more westerly behind a weak Pacific front associated with what remains of the former upper low as it emerges well to our north.
1030 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 A low pressure system off the North Carolina coast will move slowly northeast through Wednesday.
809 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure will approach from the south overnight and Wednesday.
If a cold front/storms develop and spread across the entire area it could work the area over farther to the east, with the severe potential occurring farther east. If the outflow/overnight convection does not work over the atmosphere too much, additional storms should develop near the Highway 65 during the early afternoon hours and spread east.
Upper ridge axis directly aligned across the mid state today. This feature will move east and allow a cold front to swing across the mid state Wed nt.
Surface wise, a ridge of high pressure is aligned from the north central Gulf of Mexico to across our area. Light and variable winds early tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 60s in some interior locations of the larger islands, elsewhere, low temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s.