Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad area of high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley shifts eastward today resulting in mainly sunny skies and southwesterly flow developing at low levels. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with highs approaching 80. A cold front will track across the Upper Midwest tonight kicking off showers and thunderstorms across northern Minnesota, after midnight for north- central and northeast MN. The extended week ahead showcases an initial chance for additional precipitation before turning cooler and drier for much of the work week. A cold front associated with the precipitation will mainly impact the southern periphery of the forecast region with showers and thunderstorms possible.
The greatest coverage of thunderstorms should occur east to south of Tucson, but the lower deserts won't be completely left out. Pretty much going as expected so far this afternoon with lots of debris cloud blocking the sun, so limited surface heating. An average chance of storms to start the week with a general southerly flow open to whatever cares to wrap around the high.
Locations that see temperatures climb into the low 80s will likely be confined to areas of better downsloping. Along these lake breeze boundaries, low-level moisture is progged to pool with dew points climbing into the low 60s. Temperatures will remain mild as winds become southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop over west central Upper Michigan along an advancing cold front and upper trough Sunday afternoon.
Abundant sunshine in conjunction with low-level warm advection will support warmer temperatures today with values ranging from lower 90s south to mid to upper 80s north.
Tomorrow, high temperatures will be notably cooler compared to today.
Breezy south winds were bringing in very warm air this morning with highs ranging from the lower 80s far east to near 95 far west under sunny skies this afternoon. Main story for today will be the increasing heat as upper level ridging moves over the Dakotas. Used the HRRR for winds over north central SD this afternoon which highlights ridges much better.
113 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Weak low pressure associated with a disturbance aloft will drop across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Rain chances continue to gradually diminish across West Central Texas as an upper level high across Southeast Texas strengthens. Overnight lows tonight dropping into the low to mid 70s.
Elsewhere it is drier in the lower levels with sufficient mid level moisture around along and south of I-70 to support weaker thunderstorms until 02z. Late tngt a weak upper trough will pass to the north of the state with an associated cold front slipping into the cwa Sunday morning. Best chc of thunderstorms through early aftn will be over the higher terrain, with just isolated thunderstorms developing along the Palmer Divide south and southeast of Denver late in the day.
353 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A weak front and upper trough brings showers and storms to northern areas this afternoon through evening.
112 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A cold front will stall over the area today before moving offshore on Sunday.
A quiet morning across the southern Tennessee Valley with a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft building into the region. Stronger subsidence from this building ridge should really diminish any potential for diurnal convection this afternoon. The mostly clear conditions (along with some high thickness values) will allow highs to reach the lower 90s in most areas (a degree or so warmer than yesterday). As the trough axis in the Great Lakes and OH valley slides east, a more or less zonal pattern develops to our north, while an upper ridge at 500 mb bridges across the TN valley in a west to east fashion.
332 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off to the southwest with winds light out of the SW. That said, a trough axis continues to move across the region, and this is leading the development of a few showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. Models are in good agreement with heights rising in the wake of the previously mentioned trough and given the clearing skies kept at least patchy fog across a good portion of Eastern KY. An upper level trough is swinging across the Ohio Valley this afternoon.
/issued 434 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/ Upper ridge centered over TX stretches across the southern tier of states as a low sits along the CA coast. This low will spin in place for a few days before lifting northeast over the top of the ridge flattening it. As the trough passes off the ridge will rebuild behind it. Temperatures will remain above normal in the mid to upper 90s for the next few days but models are hinting at a front bridging down into the area late in the week. Thunderstorms will continue today especially over the higher elevations west of the Pecos river.
The higher end of these values will be seen again in the southeast zones.
With the low-level moist axis over the region on Sunday a few showers and storms could occur at any time, most likely in the Afternoon and in the terrain of northwest Arkansas. Sunday night the low-level flow will increase some and this should promote a storm complex or two in the central U.
Temperatures are already into the lower 80s areawide under clear skies. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 90s for most areas today, with only slight chances for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across north Mississippi. A strong jet streak extends northeast just downstream of this trough, with enhanced vertical motion in the right entrance region. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s across most of the CWA with afternoon heat indices between 100-105F in many areas.
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Thunderstorms will accompany the encroachment of a cold front this afternoon and early evening. Insolation in the wake of morning clouds and weak convection has destabilized the Upper Ohio airspace under an encroaching upper trough. Building high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned system will result in a dry and seasonable Sunday with slightly lower dewpoints/humidity.
With high pressure over the region, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
455 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a cold front this evening. Building high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned system will result in a dry and seasonable Sunday with slightly lower dewpoints/humidity.
With moisture plentiful in the lowers levels will see hot and humid days continue followed by warm and muggy nights. Expecting a gradual ramping up of rains going into the new work-week as low pressure aloft currently over the eastern gulf advances westward. Winds will trend east to southeast and remain light moving into the work-week as high pressure becomes oriented across the southeastern states and adjacent coastal waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase as low pressure aloft over the eastern gulf advances slowly east.
Models continue to show a hot and dry weather pattern developing over Middle Tennessee over the next several days, with an 850mb ridge building over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and southeastern United States.
The latest surface map features high pressure generally ruling across the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley from west to east. Aloft, a short wave trough was moving from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with some mid and high level clouds moving towards the central part of the Commonwealth. This short wave trough will continue eastward today, bringing the threat of a few showers or storms to the I-64 corridor. An upper level ridge will build in across the area through the rest of the period, bringing mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Highs by Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s, after a night of lows similar to tonight, generally in the low to mid 60s.
147 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will move east from the Upper Midwest and reach northern New England by tonight. Drier air moves in on Sunday with more sunshine expected and highs once again in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will slowly slide eastward tonight into Sunday. The high will hold on long enough for mostly clear skies tonight into Sunday morning. Should be a little warmer tomorrow, as 925 mb temps increase to 22-24C by afternoon.
In the mid/upper levels, an upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue moving westward toward Texas through the weekend. Mid-level ridging near Bermuda extends west-southwest over eastern Florida. On the surface, subtropical high pressure near Bermuda ridges west-southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will remain around seasonal averages with daytime highs in the low 90's and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70's.
251 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper level trough axis/cold pool (-15 C at 500 MB per APX sounding) pushing east of the Central Great Lakes this afternoon. Southwest return flow around the high tomorrow to allow temps to push into the mid 80s based off 850 MB temps reaching around 16 C.
Cold front boundary is farther northwest. The cold front will push through the CWA this evening with temperatures cooling into the upper 60s and 70s. High pressure moves off to the east with return flow setting up along with strong theta E advection Sunday night.
Late day instability near a surface boundary across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas will give way to some widely scattered thunderstorms through early this evening as an upper level trough, located over southern Wyoming at 12z Saturday, moves across northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. As the upper trough crosses northern Kansas early this evening there will also be a chance for convection across north central Kansas. These storms will have a better chance for continuing into the overnight period given the location of the 0-1KM Theta-e ridge axis and 850mb warm air advection ahead of the upper wave.
224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 High pressure over the Midwest will slide off the southeast this evening as southerly winds increase ahead of a weak frontal boundary over the Dakotas. Models were suggesting some sort of weak short wave/convection developing to the southwest after midnight in response to the low level jet, but backed off, which makes sense at this point in time. In the big picture, the upper pattern will transition from slight troughing over the north central CONUS at the start of the period to northwest flow into midweek before we see ridging build over the center of the continent toward the end of the upcoming week.
Although a TUTT noted over the west central Gulf this afternoon is progged to track west over the north central Gulf Sunday afternoon, models strengthen the mid level ridge over the Gulf coast states which is expected to further limit afternoon convection to isolated coverage over our CWA. This will allow temperatures to top out a degree or two warmer than today at most locations. /22/ Sunday Night through Saturday: To start the new week, the TUTT low will continue sliding west along the Gulf Coast, but mid-level ridging is forecast to remain entrenched across the southeast CONUS.
243 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to spread east across the Alleghenies into the central ridge and valley region during the mid afternoon and early evening before dissipating later tonight.
600 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Issued a short fused heat advisory for the western cwfa with mid/upper 70s dewpoints with temperatures reaching the low 90s.
/issued 945 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017/ The upper low continues to spin just to the west of Florida. Weak Bermuda high pressure ridge axis remains across central FL with weak tropical waves in the region through the weekend with light winds and seas 2 feet or less.
143 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Weak low pressure associated with a disturbance aloft will drop across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today.
Currently at the surface, a low was at the central border of Saskatchewan/Manitoba with a trough extending south to Stanley/Minot to between New Salem/Bismarck. More humid air with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s were ahead of the trough, with drier air behind it with dewpoints lowering into the lower 50s and 40s. This trough will continue moving east tonight, with a cold front following with winds becoming northwest and gusty. This cold front extended from the Canadian low to near Williston, approaching Dickinson, and through Bowman as of 2 pm CDT. At upper levels, an upper low was over northern Saskatchewan with a trough extending south across Saskatchewan.
Temperatures running much warmer than yesterday across a good portion of the forecast area.
145 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Issued a short fused heat advisory for the western cwfa with mid/upper 70s dewpoints with temperatures reaching the low 90s.
551 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper trough brings showers and storms to northern areas through this evening.
Upper troughing moving into NorCal today, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures, though still very warm across northern Sacramento Valley.
with temperatures arcing up into the mid and upper 80s across eastern ND and far northwest MN, and ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the Minnesota lakes country.
333 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper level low pressure trough axis off to our northwest will continue to slide east across the northern part of our region through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a cold front/trough axis across western South Dakota late this afternoon will push east through the night bringing winds around to the northeast. Otherwise, it will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s for Sunday afternoon highs.
1135 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The weather pattern featured low pressure over southern California and a broad area of high pressure extending from the southern Plains west-northwestward across New Mexico to the western Great Basin. The low over southern California erodes the high over the region to some degree on Sunday. A slow moving old closed low will settle over southern California and high pressure will consolidate over Texas.
937 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 Atmosphere transitioning from an open trough over the Great Basin today, to a strong cut off low over Colorado by late tonight. With the majority of energy with the trough moving through the Rockies going across Colorado and Wyoming, most of the area will see a dry day.
1245 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A warm front will pass later today, with some sprinkles or light rain possible.
1134 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A weak closed low can be seen drifting eastward along the Northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, low level westerly to southwesterly flow continues around a low level ridge just to the southeast. Isentropic lift around the western edge of the high is leading to cloudy skies today. Also, went ahead and removed the small mention of showers across the mountains with the lower dewpoints in place. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 35 61 45 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 37 58 39 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 36 58 41 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 36 57 37 / 10 0 10 10.
357 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 A weak upper trough remains situated over Southeast Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi. Increasing low level southerly flow has allowed Gulf moisture to surge northward, and the weak trough has provided just enough ascent for some widely scattered showers today. While daytime temperatures should warm near or above 70 degrees F in most locations, I lowered the high temperature forecast just a bit as thick cloud cover and drizzle/developing showers should keep the warming in check.
230 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 Clouds overspread much of the region today as anticipated along with even warmer temperatures, helping to rid the snow where it persists.
1106 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through today. Earlier low clouds in the southeast ridges have faded, and generally cirrus is expected for most of the afternoon. Intensifying warm advection under building upper high pressure in advance of a Cntrl Rockies-to-Plains low will drive Upper Ohio temperature well above the averages for the start of the new week.
1103 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A warm front will pass later today, with some sprinkles or light rain possible.
Large upper low continues to move toward southern BC and the Pacific northwest and will impact the region Sunday with rain, mountain snow and wind.
Water vapor currently shows upper trof moving across the western CONUS, with strong 125kt jet extending from Utah through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. As upper trof moves towards the Rockies today, strong jet lifts through the area, with right entrance region across western South Dakota this evening. As upper low closes off tonight and shifts into the central plains Sunday, snow will shift southeast.
This may change tonight, mainly late, and mainly over the Straits of Florida where the warmer water will support some shallow convection. Therefore, local wind and weather will be modulated primarily by the positions, shapes, and intensities of the governing anticyclones.
Temperatures are chilly this morning with inland areas in the North and East Bay running as many as 12 degrees cooler than yesterday at 8 am.
1016 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 Water vapor currently shows upper trof moving across the western CONUS, with strong 125kt jet extending from Utah through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. As upper trof moves towards the Rockies today, strong jet lifts through the area, with right entrance region across western South Dakota this evening. As upper low closes off tonight and shifts into the central plains Sunday, snow will shift southeast.
Overnight water vapor loop showed the upper trough axis across central NV and CA, with southwest flow advecting Pacific moisture from the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. Most of the numerical models are in agreement with the intensity and track of the upper low, with the ECMWF trending somewhat slower. The general track of the low is across the Four Corners later today and tonight, and into southeast CO Sunday morning. Lower elevations can expect 6 to 10 inches, with up to a foot along the Pine Ridge.
1222 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Low pressure will track north of Maine today drawing a cold front across the region tonight.
220 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday.
220 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure slides off the Southeast coast through the weekend.
Additional drying aloft with the incoming weak ridge should result in decreasing cloud-cover over SW MT later today. Hoenisch High pressure over the Great Basin and a low pressure trough in Alberta will combine for breezy to windy conditions over North Central Montana through the weekend. Upper level ridge moving across the Northern Rockies Today/Tonight will maintain NW to W flow aloft with generally dry conditions.
That's when a cold front will begin to move into West Central Texas, from the west. Satellite already showing some of the low clouds breaking up, so expect the low clouds to be quick to dissipate and push east by mid morning. Warmer again today with highs climbing into the 70s for most locations. as south winds ahead of the upper level low increase.
1211 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure slides off the Southeast coast through the weekend.
1223 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A dry surface pressure ridge will dominate through Sunday.
321 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 An upper trough is over southern California with southwest flow aloft over the CWA. The upper trough will begin to move over the region on Sunday with the base of the trough passing over the CWA. High winds from the base of the trough will mix downward towards the surface. A Pacific cold front will also move through the area on Sunday accompanied by west winds and cooler temperatures.
Farther east, most of the showers have exited the area as a weak upper trough moves east of the Mississippi River. Deep upper trough to the west will bring moisture back into the mid lvls and increase instability durg the day Sunday.
150 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 Water vapor shows deep trof over the western CONUS with strong jet extending from just west of the Four Corners northeastward through WY and SE MT, then eastward across ND and northern MN.
215 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 The upper trough works its way east through the Southwest tonight, followed by a narrow ridge Sunday for another dry day. Let the near term models produce the expected freezing fog, and added to wx grids.
Dewpoints across inland areas were still in the low 30s this morning, but rose into the 50s across most of the area except for the MS Gulf Coast by noon today.
Several locations have already reached 50 degrees, although the northwest counties are a bit cooler due to the remaining snowpack.
Winds look to remain southwesterly and be aob 15kts today and then increase after 13Z as a cold front approaches to have gusts in the 30kt range. Most parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles expected to rise well into the 70s today as west and southwest winds continue as surface trof traverses area. Pacific cold front passes Sunday morning as closed mid-level low crosses the western Oklahoma Panhandle. Polar cold front arrives during the afternoon in Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle, shifting winds to northwest.
A narrow upper ridge axis extends northeast from Mexico toward the Bluegrass State early this morning. At the surface, weak low pressure was located near the CO/KS border, with high pressure lingering over the Southeast. It's primarily a low stratus scenario, but we'll likely see some fog with dewpoints surging above freezing over the lingering snow. Sunday night looks warm and mainly dry, with central KY/southern IN firmly in the warm sector of a strengthening low pressure system in the Plains.
245 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through today. Still some question as to whether temperatures can drop enough to allow for freezing rain/drizzle for a period across the far northeast CWA late tonight. Model soundings indicate that the surface wet bulb values should remain at or above freezing for the most part, and with the column remaining stirred, do not foresee a big temperature dropoff this evening despite the lingering snowpack. Will leave out freezing mention for now, but will alert following shift to monitor trends.
Farther east, most of the showers have exited the area as a weak upper trough moves east of the Mississippi River.
But looking to the north from the forecast office, low stratus can be seen laying on the horizon, evidence of some freezing fog. Templer Previous Discussion: A narrow but amplified trough swinging through the southwestern CONUS this morning is anticipated to become a cutoff low by the afternoon, with a weak upper level ridge moving into Montana today and bringing continued clearing skies to the region. Colder air will also move into the region, with temperatures struggling to make it above freezing this weekend, especially north of the Missouri River.
1243 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through today. Earlier low clouds in the southeast ridges have faded, and generally cirrus is expected for most of the afternoon. Intensifying warm advection under building upper high pressure in advance of a Cntrl Rockies-to-Plains low will drive Upper Ohio temperature well above the averages for the start of the new week.