Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A much deeper moisture column associated with an upper level low moving slowly west across the central gulf will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the outer coastal waters. VFR expected through the forecast period with convection generally skirting the coastal areas along the northern fringe of the central Gulf upper low. High pressure will hold along and north of the I-10 corridor. Wx map shows high pressure ridge over the Eastern U. Aloft, a mid to upper level low over the central Gulf is providing enhanced showers and thunderstorms along the northern and eastern fringes of this system. For areas along and north of I-10, the influence of high pressure aloft will limit much shower and thunderstorm development.
Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday as the building ridge centered over the southern Plains shifts east.
Warmer high temperatures along with higher humidity can be expected on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the central US.
516 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 [Today through Tomorrow] The main weather story today will be the continued above normal daytime high temperatures as the upper level high pressure remains situated over the southern portion of the US. An upper level low slowly moving westward across the Gulf will begin to bring increased PWATs of 1.
Forecast appears largely on track, with diminishing clouds and a return to warmer weather this afternoon. The main concern is the potential for a few diurnal thunderstorms in the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas mid to late afternoon. a boundary was slowly lifting northeast across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with dewpoints in the lower 60s north of the boundary and upper 60s/lower 70s south of the boundary. Additional isolated diurnal convection maybe also possible within the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. These conditions are progged to continue through the first half of the upcoming week as a ridge of high pressure builds back northward across the Plains.
Mostly clear skies are prevailing across South Central Texas and temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 70s for most locations. For today, weak ridging will remain anchored to our north and a weak upper low will remain to our east. Went a degree or two warmer for highs today than what guidance showed as dry soils continue to help temperatures creep up each afternoon. Much of the same is expected tonight with dry conditions, partly cloudy skies, and lows in the lower to middle 70s for most locations. Will continue to keep the forecast rain free on Sunday, as the weak upper low currently in the western Gulf of Mexico slowly moves west.
VFR expected through the forecast period with convection generally skirting the coastal areas along the northern fringe of the central Gulf upper low. High pressure will hold along and north of the I-10 corridor. Wx map shows high pressure ridge over the Eastern U. Aloft, a mid to upper level low over the central Gulf is providing enhanced showers and thunderstorms along the northern and eastern fringes of this system. For areas along and north of I-10, the influence of high pressure aloft will limit much shower and thunderstorm development.
558 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Patches of mid lvl clouds movg west across some portions of area in easterly flow around upper ridge. /Today through Sunday/ Upper ridge over area appears to expand northward slightly this wknd, absorbing weak boundary that was responsible for a few convective cells across northern fringe of area yesterday aftn. However, have added 20 pops across se portion of area Sunday aftn as models indicate a slight uptick in pwats under continued easterly flow as upper low over gulf nudges closer to coast. However, for the most part, temperatures and dewpoints will change little under same general upper ridge influence with temps in mid 90s to near 100 expected, and dewpoints still mixing out sufficiently to likely avoid any heat advisories.
154 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Flat upper level ridging stretching across the southern tier of the CONUS will get shunted eastward during the next 24 hours as an upper level trough moves northward over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico.
405 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure over the area will continue to weaken and break down through the evening. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, before stalling and dissipating across the area on Sunday.
The cold front which moved through the region last night and this morning is now moving into central Mississippi. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight and will remain over the Mid-South for the next several days.
1033 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The forecast is on track this morning with quiet, warmer weather expected through the weekend. Between now and 15Z, will have to monitor how far north this low level jet/moisture advection goes. With all the low level moisture being advected into the region on this low level jet, deep layer instability begins to approach 1000-1500j/kg this afternoon on and east of the Prairie Coteau within 35 to 45 knots of 0-6km shear. Overnight and into Sunday, what little there is in the way of higher pressure, post-frontal, is quickly replaced with another return flow pressure gradient and some breezy southerly winds developing by the end of the day. Plenty of warm low level air to mix, so Sunday temperatures should easily be able to replicate Saturday's highs, if not a handful of degrees warmer.
As trough continues moving eastward, mid level clouds and light showers will exit eastward towards the Red River Valley. with expected highs in the low to mid 70s. For tonight, a quiet and pleasant night expected as broad upper ridge starts to build over the Northern Plains.
Tonight and Sunday Clouds were on the increase this afternoon as temperatures warmed into the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south. for tonight, an area of low pressure and the associated warm front is expected to lift northward. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread northeast across the area this evening into the overnight as the low level jet increases to 35 to 45 knots and veers overnight.
With the boundary stalling across our area and not scouring any of the low level moisture, fog development remains possible given the radiating conditions and light wind component. The NAM is the most aggressive with the fog and potential for low visibilities orienting along the Platte/Loup Rivers in the Genoa/Columbus areas initially and expanding to the southwest towards Holdrege/Cambridge by Sunday morning. the heat returns as an upper ridge axis builds north across the interior CONUS ahead of an upper trough edging into the Pacific Northwest. the upper ridge axis migrates east with flow transitioning southwest ahead of a west coast trough.
Water vapour matinee showed ridge building over the Rockies.
This high will continue to move east through the Ohio Valley this evening keeping winds from the south-southwest. Both the GFS/NAM show the upper high over the southern CONUS building north over the Midwest on Sunday with a ridge over western Missouri by late afternoon.
318 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Tonight: A few of the high resolution models generate a couple of storms in central KS this evening.
247 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Temperatures haven't been cool, but they're cooler than they've been in days! Dewpoints have also been tolerable, especially for areas around the TN/KY state line. An upper ridge will build overhead and remain in place through at least mid week.
Precip threat pushes east by Sunday morning with ridging building in.
247 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front over the area today will push east tonight and be off to the east on Sunday. Cold front over the central and eastern zones this afternoon will move slowly east overnight and should clear any leftover showers out of the area after midnight.
307 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure over southern Illinois will drift to the east overnight, as a weak front moves in toward the area. High pressure drifting east over southern IL to IN.
Residual convection over the ridges is ending with passage of the cold front so early eve precip. Otherwise, dry advection with building high pressure will result in a clearing sky with light wind and areas of valley fog.
300 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will move through today. The cold front will clear out the low clouds and showers, and usher in many days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal.
Patchy river valley fog may develop, but very dry air in the low levels should prevent widespread fog from developing despite the clear skies and light winds. Tomorrow, the summer-like temperatures return as upper level ridging nudges in from the south and surface winds veer to the south and southwest.
Biggest story in the short term will be the mid and upper level trof spinning over the central gulf this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low 70s to 80s.
323 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The frontal system will move into the Gulf of Maine tonight, then high pressure will build south of the state on Sunday.
229 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A lot of convective debris cirrus and stratus over the lower Keys has prevented temperatures popping above 85, but the cirrus field is beginning to dissipate. Shower coverage over the area is isolated, a good indication the lower troposphere has not recovered from the abundant convection this morning. This is a result of Humberto moving off to the north, and weak ridging building over Cuba it its wake. Punching a hole in ridge if you will. This is fairly good news for our area, as subsequent westward moving waves over the tropical Atlantic, if they develop further, will tend to move northwest towards the weakness in the ridge before reaching our area.
109 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Updated at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Now that southern Indiana and central Kentucky sit in the post frontal region of the cold front, the area can enjoy one day of cooler weather. Areas near the Tennessee border will see the upper 80s, but this is still cooler than it has been the last few days. This is the start of warmer weather to come. Louisville will likely only go to the low 60s.
316 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will move through today. The cold front will clear out the low clouds and showers, and usher in many days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal.
A cold front will push east of the area this morning. High pressure will build northeast through the Ohio valley today and Sunday.
The pattern is amplifying with a trough digging into the region from Alaska early this week. As it approaches it will push up a ridge over eastern Montana. Sunday afternoon will be the windiest with westerly winds from Lolo Pass to Missoula and along the Highway 200 corridor east and areas south, and we raised winds in the forecast to have wind speeds in the teens with gusts in the 20s at low elevations and much stronger winds at higher elevations.
1101 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing cold front.
Strengthening upper level ridging will extend well north to the Canadian border for the forecast period. Trough will move into the western states for the start of the work week with a series of waves trying to break down the ridge. For most of the week this will likely be a futile attempt, but eventually as the weekend approaches ridge may give enough for some chances for showers and storms to enter the area. VFR conditions continue under ridging across the area for the first 15 or so hours of this period.
316 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The frontal system will move into the Gulf of Maine tonight, then high pressure will build south of the state on Sunday.
1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The forecast is on track this morning with quiet, warmer weather expected through the weekend. Between now and 15Z, will have to monitor how far north this low level jet/moisture advection goes. With all the low level moisture being advected into the region on this low level jet, deep layer instability begins to approach 1000-1500j/kg this afternoon on and east of the Prairie Coteau within 35 to 45 knots of 0-6km shear. Overnight and into Sunday, what little there is in the way of higher pressure, post-frontal, is quickly replaced with another return flow pressure gradient and some breezy southerly winds developing by the end of the day. Plenty of warm low level air to mix, so Sunday temperatures should easily be able to replicate Saturday's highs, if not a handful of degrees warmer.
250 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Broad high pressure remains aloft over the southeast with an upper low over the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build back into the area for the rest of the week once Humberto passes, with a drier air mass expected over the region.
Weak ridging will be the main influence for this weekend with warm temperatures and dry weather expected through Sunday night.
Aside from the short-term convective threat, the primary weather story will be the continuation of the hot and humid weather which is associated with a building ridge aloft.
A few diurnal driven showers/t-storms have developed across north-central Louisiana over the past hour along the easterly flow associated with the upper low in the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary will wash out tonight and flat ridging will remain anchored across the region on Sunday.
145 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Still dealing with the sub tropical ridge extending in from the Atlantic and across the area.
A flat ridge of high pressure was positioned over the region early this afternoon as a deep broad upper low advanced into the Canadian coastal waters. Numerical models drive the low south through Vancouver Island Sunday as the flow aloft over Idaho backs from the west to southwest and remains dry.
138 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the region as a cold front moves to the southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly move southeast of the area ahead of an advancing cold front. Slight amplification of the ridge over the Mississippi River Valley will cause a deepening of the trough over the northeast U.
A broad trough is stretched from the Pacific northwest into the New England states. The surface is exhibiting southerly flow regime with a lee trough in place. Ridging continue to build into the region tomorrow with higher heights and mixing allowing for above normal highs into the low to mid 90s.
Should see the low level moisture remain in place tonight but low clouds should only make it for the far eastern tier this time around. Deese Medium-range models in fairly good agreement through the period with the region stuck under persistent upper ridging.
Otherwise, high plains lee troughing will continue through the overnight with mild lows heading into the AM - 60s. The mid level ridge begins to amplify over the greater region and pops will remain at zero percent through the day. The mid level ridge will slowly move east and broad southwesterly flow aloft will develop upstream across the western United States. The net result is a tranquil weather pattern across Kansas with continued WAA/lee troughing.
An upper level low is clearly visible on water vapor imagery this afternoon. This low is expected to slowly move west over the next several days.
157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s across the area this afternoon. An upper level ridge will build over the region by Sunday afternoon and remain across the area through the middle of the week.
Beginning Sunday night, a significant upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the plains, resulting in warming temperatures, lots of sunshine, and drier conditions for almost all of the upcoming week.
This boundary, while bringing in some drier air, will not clear out all low-level moisture and cooler temps will make late night fog likely at all sites, and especially CSV where VIS may drop to or below 1 mile.
1107 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019 08z surface analysis had a weak trough moving across the CWA.
225 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A large area of high pressure at the surface was centered over the region today, making for a rather nice day out there as dew points have dropped into the 50s, which was a welcome relief from the humidity. On Sunday, we will remain under the influence of high pressure, so dry conditions will continue.
253 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Upper level ridging aloft will nudge north across the area from the Southern Plains tonight into Sunday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen Sunday along the lee of the Rockies with a tightening pressure gradient across the area. This is in response to a series of upper troughs that will be moving onto the west coast and then move northeast across the northern Rockies into the far Northern Plains.
Weak cold front moving southward through the region this morning will cause light north winds areawide today.
This is about 15 degrees warmer than mid September averages as an upper ridge builds over the Plains.
With dewpoints presently falling into the low to mid 50s across the area, fog will be fairly limited tonight, mainly to the more sheltered valley locations. Lows Sunday night will again fall into the 50s in the valleys with ridge locations holding near 60.
Tonight and Sunday, a broad upper ridge is forecast to build over the eastern Rockies and western Plains ahead of an upper low/trough moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
1215 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will move through today. The cold front will clear out the low clouds and showers, and usher in many days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal. The far SErn counties could get a little sunshine today as the warm front bubbles up from the SE.
1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Another nice day today with temperatures topping out in the low to middle 80s along with a nice southerly breeze under mostly sunny skies. This trough is expected to kick off a line of storms extending from southwest Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska by this evening. Southerly winds will help advect warmer temperatures northward, especially across Kansas, where temperatures will climb into the 90s. On the other hand, the midlevels look to moisten up quite well as the low level jet increases moisture transport across the Central Plains.
/issued 145 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ Still dealing with the sub tropical ridge extending in from the Atlantic and across the area.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching upper low is bringing mid and high level clouds to Washington and northern Oregon. The cold front will become a little more north south oriented on Sunday as it slowly moves into the Pacific northwest.
726 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will move through today. The cold front will clear out the low clouds and showers, and usher in many days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal.
652 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Upper level ridging aloft will nudge north across the area from the Southern Plains tonight into Sunday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen Sunday along the lee of the Rockies with a tightening pressure gradient across the area. This is in response to a series of upper troughs that will be moving onto the west coast and then move northeast across the northern Rockies into the far Northern Plains.
Tonight/Sunday, things change as winds aloft switch to the southwest ahead of an approaching large-scale trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. Additionally, a weaker low pressure system, currently over eastern Arizona, moves north dragging moisture along as it gets absorbed and carried northeast by the jet stream. The best chances for afternoon showers and storms on Sunday exists over the high terrain near the San Juans.
The High Surf Advisory goes through late tonight, but may need to continue for the entire coast or at least Volusia/Brevard coast into Sunday.
902 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure over southern Illinois will drift to the east overnight, as a weak front moves in toward the area. Models have not been handling this cluster well, however there is some suggesting this cluster will weaken while additional storms form behind it ahead of an approaching cold front and upper wave. High pressure drifting east over southern IL to IN.
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 High pressure has settled over the region and VFR conditions will prevail at all area airports for this TAF period. Weak ridging will be the main influence for this weekend with warm temperatures and dry weather expected through Sunday night.
Temperatures haven't been cool, but they're cooler than they've been in days! Dewpoints have also been tolerable, especially for areas around the TN/KY state line. An upper ridge will build overhead and remain in place through at least mid week.
Expect remaining showers to gradually dissipate through the evening despite continued cloud cover as mid/high clouds associated with convection generated by a mid/upper low over the Gulf of Mexico overspread much the area. 00Z upper-air sounding depicts east to northeast flow up to about 500 mb maintaining moist conditions similar to previous few days, therefore expect continued humid conditions with lows in the mid 70s tonight and high temps tomorrow topping out in the lower 90s along with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. /issued 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ Broad high pressure remains aloft over the southeast with an upper low over the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build back into the area for the rest of the week once Humberto passes, with a drier air mass expected over the region.
South to southwest winds will return tomorrow and under an area of high pressure, temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s and lower 90s once again across the region.
Thus, we will remove POPs from the grids for the remainder of the evening/overnight period, as recent model guidance suggests no additional development of showers/thunderstorms beneath a narrow mid-level ridge in place across the region. The "new" airmass west of the front will quickly moderate, resulting in high temperatures on Sunday rising back into the low/mid 90s.
Expect clear to partly cloudy skies as weak high pressure remains at the surface overnight. Westerly flow behind the trough early this evening becoming light southerly tonight. Surface flow will remain southerly on Sunday with upper level ridging building over the forecast area. Tonight and Sunday, a broad upper ridge is forecast to build over the eastern Rockies and western Plains ahead of an upper low/trough moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
626 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Tonight: A few of the high resolution models generate a couple of storms in central KS this evening.
1031 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Currently - The Keys are in a somewhat unusual weather pattern with a tropical storm just north of the northern Bahamas and broad troughing aligned over the Yucatan and central Gulf of Mexico. Troughing in the Gulf of Mexico and a tropical storm just north of the Bahamas has placed light and variable winds across Keys waters.
These high but mainly thin clouds should slowly increase through tomorrow, perhaps taking a slight edge off the highs around 90F across the plains tomorrow. A flat ridge embedded in the westerly flow aloft over the Central Rockies will shift east of the area by Sunday. The warming trend will continue with warmer lows for tonight. Highs on Sunday should be another 2-6F warmer resulting in highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.
833 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A cold front will move off the Mid Atlantic coast overnight. High pressure will build in and usher in several days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s across the area this afternoon. An upper level ridge will build over the region by Sunday afternoon and remain across the area through the middle of the week.