Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SHIFTS AND LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC OR WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS THU NIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING RESUMES OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THU AND SO WILL ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 258 AM CST WED FEB 18 2015/ A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL PROVIDE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.
A HEALTHY WARMUP IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO SURFACE LEE TROUGHING.
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TODAY WITH RESULTING STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THURSDAY AS A RESULT.
FALLING TEMPS AND PROLONGED SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOUNTAINS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 8 20 9 / 60 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 25 5 15 4 / 70 20 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 24 6 16 5 / 80 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 23 2 10 0 / 90 60 10 10 NC.
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
456 AM CST WED FEB 18 2015 ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SE KS LATE THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING. A DEEP EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE ACROSS MID-AMERICA WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY-THU. INCREASING SE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE CHILLY WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING OVER FAR SE KS. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING FRI. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TALL/AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC BY LATE WEEK. ALLOWING FOR A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY LATE WEEK-WEEKEND. AS AN EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER ON THE LOW SIDE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 21-00Z. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
LIGHT RAIN AND SOME VIS RESRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THE STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE COAST FLATTENS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING SUNDAY.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MOS GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR A NUMBER OF SITES. AND THE NAM STICKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON.
THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FEET FROM THE EAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS WINDS HAVE TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 53 36 39 / 0 90 90 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 52 34 36 / 0 80 90 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 51 34 36 / 0 80 90 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 26 50 34 35 / 10 60 90 40 TN.
WELL DEFINED TROF AXIS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY SHARP BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER THAT AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM AROUND LUSK TO LARAMIE/CHEYENNE. WILL SEE A GRADUALLY DECREASE W-E IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE TROF AXIS MARCHES EAST THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
1046 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CIGS WILL LOWER AS GREATER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WHERE BEST UPSLOPE ENHANCED FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG ARE OCCURRING. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW AS TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO CENTRAL WY SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE LOW. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD SW ACROSS THE FA. MASSIVE SW CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
456 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING.
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON.
820 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AND THE FAR SW STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RIDGING OVER GA TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDINESS. /39 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT. SO THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST.
HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE PUSHED INTO SE OREGON AND ARE INCREASING ACROSS SW IDAHO. AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT ARE THE HARNEY VALLEY. FIRST TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL COME INLAND BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EVER-PRESENT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA.
SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. /ISSUED 202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD.
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WINDS NOW GUSTING TO 31KT AT CYS. ALSO INCREASED SNOW CHANCES IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW ESPECIALLY IN ZONE 33. SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS A SPLITTING TROUGH WITH WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE CWA SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH DENVER IN THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
ANY REMAINING THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
EXPECT POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY MID/LATE MORNING, BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN UPPER LOW WAS WEST OF EL PASO, MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY NOON. SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S, DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY) WARMER WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CANCELLED ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CO THIS EVENING AND A DEEPER CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND NW MEXICO. WITH THE FLOW STRETCHED BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER WY AND THE UPPER PLAINS AND THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING DUE SOUTH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED WEAK TROUGHS IN THESE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
Expect poor flight conditions overnight but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low clouds from north to south throughout the day. An upper low was west of El Paso, moving slowly southeast. A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing gusty north winds by noon. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today's, despite cold air advection. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the first half of the week.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
HAVE MODIFIED OVERNIGHT FOG MENTION TO AREAS FREEZING FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE IN THIS REGION.
Main upper trough is currently observed across the four corners region while a secondary strong wave was quickly pushing southeast towards the central plains. This kicker wave will help deepen the upper trough as it spreads eastward tonight and tomorrow. Q vector convergence enhances with the passing upper trough after midnight tonight, enhancing precipitation bands. Thus exact changeover to all snow is still somewhat uncertain as temps will hover in the lower and middle 30s for much of the evening. Will maintain a rain and snow mix until the cold front arrives from the northwest with a quick shift to all snow by 12Z Sunday morning.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
640 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
738 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
414 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 0.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN.
800 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
302 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST, FLANKED ON EITHER SIDE BY LOW PRESSURE CENTERS, ONE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST RIDGE AND THE SOUTHWEST LOW, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON SOUTHERN SIERRA RIDGES, WITH THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SUMMIT REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 100 MPH MUCH OF THE MORNING, DECREASING TO AROUND 75 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
935 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
512 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015 12z Models continue the ongoing trend for warmer/wetter and even flirt with some instability, elevated, with 30 K's into srn ptns FA. The cold air is really taking awhile to slam down the back side, around the Low, and the moisture is all but departed. We'll carry a changeover flurry chance though, just due to the strength of the cold air/high pressure that works into the FA in its wake.
720 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
Main portion of the upper-level trof bringing the snow and low clouds is now over eastern MT, so should see conditions gradually improving back to VFR for KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/ KLWT this eve, but exact timing is a bit tricky due to local effects near those airfields and a few amendments are likely. Sunday and Sunday night moisture will increase from the west and expect more snow in the mountains with a chance of snow for the lower elevations.
645 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT. SO THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE E ON SUNDAY. ALLOWING A WEAKENING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ EARLY MORNING GOES WATER IMAGERY SHOWED A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO LIFT EASTWARD. DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER A MOIST MARITIME AIRMASS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS TI LIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND KEEP IT DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF WISCONSIN.
317 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015 PREDOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SW U. ANOTHER WAVY BARELY SURVIVES AS IT TRIES TO BUST THROUGH THE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SECOND FEATURE HAS A BIT MORE SUCCESS AS IT LEADS THE WAY FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE PACNW AND NORTHER CA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.
A DRY WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH BY THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME CASCADE SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED FROM KANSAS CITY TO MILWAUKEE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS VERY DRY. WE WILL QUICKLY SEE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM NODAK TOWARD SW WI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WE GET INTO A TIGHT MIDLEVEL TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN A VERY DEEP AND COLD H5 LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY AND A FLATTENING OUT UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE MANIPULATED THE SNOW RATIO GRIDS TO BE ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.
336 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN BRINGING DRIER AND BRIGHTER CONDITIONS WITH A DECENT BREEZE OUT OF THE NW AT 10-20 MPH.
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
CURRENTLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER AR WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW. FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE TO EAST AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
603 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. KCCX VELOCITY PATTERN SHOWS COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM JUST N OF KIPT TO JUST S OF KDUJ AT 2150Z. HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GRT LKS OVERNIGHT. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN BRINGING DRIER AND BRIGHTER CONDITIONS WITH A DECENT BREEZE OUT OF THE NW AT 10-20 MPH.
AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. EXPECT THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE POOL OF COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS AROUND 60 IN OUR SOUTH.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THERE MAY BE A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cold front currently stretches from near Green Bay, Wisconsin through Des Moines, Iowa to Kearney, Nebraska and is pressing south on schedule. Temperature forecast for today is tricky given extensive cirrus shield covering the southern half of the CWA and cold front arrival.
1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015 Saturday - Sunday: A pretty nice weekend is in store despite a weak cold front dropping south through northern and central MO today. Inspection of progged soundings shows the low-level warm nose will still be present today but the vertical stratification of the boundary layer winds will likely not support deep mixing. Sunday still looks like the warmest day as warm air advection noses east towards the western CWA and think we should be able to warm into the lower 70s. The northeastern counties won't see this warming as an easterly wind will likely hold temperatures in the lower 60s.
251 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, HOWEVER IT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO ERODE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE DAY.
349 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OREGON ZONES AND NRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
231 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN BRINGING DRIER AND BRIGHTER CONDITIONS WITH A DECENT BREEZE OUT OF THE NW AT 10-20 MPH.
LOWERING CLOUD DECKS AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50 SOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN TOMORROW WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS COMPARED TO SOUTHERN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH.
317 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETECTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR EL PASO LIFTING NE. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUMP UP THE THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EXPECT A CONTAINED LIGHT WLY WIND REGIME WITH SUITABLE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO HELP PRODUCE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND LWR MS VLY ACROSS THE SERN CONUS/FL BY MON AFTERNOON.
A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO AREAS FURTHER NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE THICKEST CIRRUS. AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO MOVES INTO TEXAS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.