Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes through the weekend. Skies had cleared over much of central Indiana early this morning with high pressure building into the area. A drier and cooler airmass was steadily advecting into the region.
The weak, elongated upper level low (currently evident on vis, IR and WV imagery this afternoon) slide off shore and position itself southwest of the tri-state area. Expect convection to be driven by the sea-breeze with the highest chances of storms concentrated over the Suwannee Valley through the end of the period. Highs will generally run in the mid 90s, with head indicies jumping up to 100 to 105F by Thursday afternoon as dewpoints return to the low to mid 70s. Lows in the low 70s are expected.
349 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will extend across the southern Rockies into the Western High Plains the next 24 hours, with hot and dry weather persisting across West Central Texas. Warm temperatures expected again tonight, with overnight lows in the lower and middle 70s.
With warmer air beginning to advect in today (850 mb temps rising back into the double digits, anyway) should allow temps to rebound nicely this afternoon into the upper 70s to near 80, except along Lake Superior where the lakebreeze will keep things cooler. Despite little to no wind under this high, very dry mid-levels and enough thermal mixing perhaps up to 7 kft could lead to dew points dropping out over the interior this afternoon. This brings RHs down into the low 20s%. Tonight looks chilly again, but went a few degrees warmer than this morning given that it'll be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. Quiet, dry and slightly above normal warm weather is expected to prevail through the middle part of the week as high pressure continues to dominate our local weather.
341 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure centered over northern Wisconsin this morning will keep conditions fairly quiet across the Northland today. The high will slip southeastward toward northern Lower Michigan by tonight which will result in a southerly return flow developing near the surface. Temperatures will nudge a few degrees warmer today with abundant sunshine expected.
1154 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach and stall out over western Pennsylvania tonight, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Widely scattered convection still firing late this evening across central Pa along axis of anomalous pwats preceding a slow-moving cold front over the Grt Lks. For overnight, will maintain the highest POPs across the Laurel Highlands and central mountains, where models place the axis of deepest moisture and marginal instability. High humidity and a fair amount of cloud cover will result in another mild night with min temps ranging from the low 60s over the northwest mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. The slow-moving cold front will edge southeast into the region Wednesday.
1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 156 PM CDT High pressure centered over Minnesota this afternoon will drift eastward into Wisconsin tonight. A large and strong mid- upper ridge centered over the interior West and Plains will be quasi- stationary through the period, putting us under light dry northerly flow on the east side of the ridge.
With warmer air beginning to advect in today (850 mb temps rising back into the double digits, anyway) should allow temps to rebound nicely this afternoon into the upper 70s to near 80, except along Lake Superior where the lake breeze will keep things cooler. Despite little to no wind under this high, very dry mid-levels and enough thermal mixing perhaps up to 7 kft could lead to dewpoints dropping out over the interior this afternoon. This brings RHs down into the low 20s%. Tonight looks chilly again, but went a few degrees warmer than this morning given that it'll be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. A blocking ridge centered over the Southwestern U.
830 PM PDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure over New Mexico will direct monsoonal moisture into the Lower Colorado River Valley on Wednesday which may fuel an isolated thunderstorms over our mountains and deserts.
417 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front extending across the area will slowly move southeast through the day. The front will stall along the west side of the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Cold front bisects the forecast area early this morning. Mid level troughing persists with minor ripples moving through the trough. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s. Meanwhile high pressure center will build a little further east into the western Great Lakes. Mid level troughing remains.
High pressure is currently centered over northern Wisconsin. This high will move slowly east today.
The western ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners, stretching from the Pacific to the mid-lower Missouri Valley. This will help support renewed development overnight, associated with a weak 500mb short wave trough, and possible minor MCS over NE/IA. With a slight shift eastward of the larger western ridge, expect the LLJ to build more south/southwest into the lower Missouri Valley through Thursday morning. This pared with another short wave trough traversing the larger flow regime, will result in overall better potential for MCS development.
Pleasant conditions are expected for today and tomorrow as high pressure remains over the area.
310 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Updated at 310 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Regional observations show the broad cold front strewn across central KY in a N-S orientation under mostly clear skies. Though the cold front will have exited our area by late morning, max temperatures will remain on the warm side ranging from the mid to upper 80s. Clearing skies overnight into Thursday morning likely will promote another round of AM fog for much of the CWA with morning low temps ranging from the low to mid 60s. We look to have broad ridging across the western U. Lower thicknesses associated with that troughing will mean continued near normal temperatures most of the period.
A couple of warm summer days for the rest of today and tomorrow as an upper high over the southern High Plains and central/southern Rockies remains anchored. With the warm front moving east and a little more downslope the temperatures should reach around 100 degrees on Wednesday afternoon, with even a warmer overnight in the low and mid 70s by Thursday morning.
322 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist today with a slow moving cold front. Mainly dry weather returns for most areas Thursday under building high pressure. Isolated showers are expected this morning under upper troughing, and ahead of an approaching cold front.
428 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Still stuck in between two large upper ridges, one centered over the southern High Plains/W TX and the other over the western Atlantic. In between, moisture deep and flow in the base of the trough in between the two ridges quite weak with 500mb wind speeds only around 10kts. The forecast area will remain in a upper level trough through the end of the period.
358 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 The upper trough axis will continue to swing east today and push the surface boundary and moisture east as well. Temperatures will only be a degree or two cooler than yesterday with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
Today: High pressure centers remain both off to the east and west of the area, which will keep a trough axis just west of the cwa through the day. A weak lee-side trough should setup somewhere across the eastern Piedmont or central Midlands by this afternoon. An upper level trough axis will remain west of the region with an upper ridge off the southeast coast and over the Desert Southwest.
327 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure will hold over the region today and Thursday with weak east to southeast flow across the peninsula. Weak U/L troughing is also expected to develop over the area which will increase convective instability.
342 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An extended stretch of quiet weather is expected today through this weekend as high pressure settles in.
Temperatures tonight, with the increased cloud cover, should stabilize and remain a few degrees warmer than previously thought. Wednesday night: Mid-level ridging shifts a bit further to the east Wednesday night, which should push the best risks for development of elevated convection further to the south and east. Thursday: High pressure sitting over Wisconsin should provide a slightly cooler feel to the air.
Today and Tonight High pressure continues to build in over the region.
Thanks to a warm front lifting across Kansas and residual cloud cover up north, we will likely have a 20+ degree spread in high temperatures across our forecast area. Highs are expected to range from the low 80s up north near Ord to the low 100s in Phillips, Rooks, and Osborne Counties. Late this afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the aforementioned warm front in northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska. After midnight, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the low-level jet which focuses east of our forecast area. Thursday will be a bit cooler than today, but we still may push the upper 90s in parts of northern Kansas.
KGUP and KFMN have the highest probabilities of thunderstorm impacts Wednesday. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday with storms once again favoring the high terrain.
Northwest flow a loft and high pressure at the sfc are the main culprits for the string of quiet, nice days. Under northwesterly upper level flow with ridge centered over southwestern U. The high will slowly pull away to the east by Wednesday afternoon with light winds becoming southeasterly.
210 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach and stall out over western Pennsylvania tonight, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Widely scattered convection still firing late this evening across central Pa along axis of anomalous pwats preceding a slow-moving cold front over the Grt Lks. For overnight, will maintain the highest POPs across the Laurel Highlands and central mountains, where models place the axis of deepest moisture and marginal instability. High humidity and a fair amount of cloud cover will result in another mild night with min temps ranging from the low 60s over the northwest mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. The slow-moving cold front will edge southeast into the region Wednesday.
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy today with highs around 80 over the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley, to the lower 90s west. It will become moderately unstable this afternoon over the forecast area, with maximized moisture pooling ahead of the cold front with dewpoints into the mid 60s over central ND. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening, mainly along and just ahead of the cold front. Strong ridging continues over the Northern Plains into the weekend. But in general, marginal bulk shear and weak forcing for ascent given the strong upper ridging.
108 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over James Bay and a ridge from the southern Rockies through the Northern Plains resulting cyclonic westerly flow through the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley was slowly building to the east. Tonight, As high pressure continues to build into the region, expect favorable radiational cooling conditions with PWAT values dropping below 0. This will allow temps to drop into the lower 40s inland with even some upper 30s possible in favored cold spots. Dewpoints will also drop into the lower 40s inland with min RH values around 30 percent. Quiet, dry and slightly above normal warm weather is expected to prevail through the middle part of the week as high pressure continues to dominate our local weather.
The discrepancy is all because of the location of the high pressure. The clockwise flow around the high is transporting moisture to the area but if the high is further east, we get the precip and if the high center is located further west, it goes to Utah. With the high pressure spinning to our south and limited upper level shear, any thunderstorms that do develop will be slow movers and capable of producing heavy rainfall rates. The persistent high pressure system will retrograde slowly to the west, stalling over the Four Corners region by the weekend.
The upper level trough over the region will gradually de-amplify, but will move little during the short term period. The slowly approaching weak cold front will stall near the Cumberland Plateau.
Dry northwest flow and sprawling high pressure (1023 MB)/anti-cyclonic flow building into the Central Great Lakes will eventually win out, arriving tonight and more or less holding on through the weekend as upper level ridge axis over Central Canada is slow to break down.
After that, the remainder of the day should be primarily dry, with slightly increasing humidity and warmer temperatures as highs climb in the upper 70s east, to lower 80s west. For tonight, the instability gradient remains across the region, and some models are suggesting isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing through the lower MO River corridor along the nose of the low level jet. It will be a milder night with lows in the lower 60s east to upper 60s west. Humidity will continue to creep up a bit and temperatures will top out mostly in the lower 80s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this evening along a slow moving cold front that still stretches from near Corinth, MS northeast to just south of Murfreesboro, TN.
1220 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through Wednesday with the encroachment of a cold front. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers should continue overnight under upper troughing, and with the slow approach of a cold front. Scattered to nmrs showers/storms are expected to increase later today as the troughing persists, and the cold front continues its slow advancement across the region.
With 925 and 850 mb temperatures up to 1C warmer than yesterday, expect the high temperatures to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. The area of high pressure at the surface centered over the Great Lakes will remain the dominant feature through the remainder of the work week.
146 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging on track in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
Generally looking at the axis to be along or near the I-20 corridor, while, a cold front remains well to the north of the area. The trough axis will slide south a touch tonight and activity will likely shift to the southeast much like the previous night. The upper level ridge remains highly amplified over the Rockies with a trough stretched through the Appalachians and East Coast. A boundary associated with the main trough axis will remain stationary across Georgia and Central to Southern AL, providing a general focus for increase rain/thunderstorms each afternoon.
Several embedded vorticity maxima may help organize some heavier precipitation, but cloud cover and the cooler ground will be difficult to overcome. Wetting rains are possible across much of northern Arizona through Wednesday, which has the highest chances of precipitation for the week.
1005 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this evening along a slow moving cold front that still stretches from near Corinth, MS northeast to just south of Murfreesboro, TN.
313 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 For the short range, a strong mid level ridge centered over the southern high plains will continue to build slowly north over the next couple of days. Energy flowing through that ridge will provide for occasional chances for rain/convection. For now will maintain low pops, which reflects the low confidence that anything will fire up. However, by late Thursday into Thursday night, a decent looking wave is expected to ride the ridge, and then move out into the plains.
1242 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An extended stretch of quiet weather is expected today through this weekend as high pressure settles in.
308 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A large and nearly stationary upper level ridge of high pressure from the the rockies to the plains will be the main weather influence for west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next several days.
/issued 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ Upper ridge over the ridge will continue to cause hot conditions over the next few days with temperatures gradually warming each day. Late this week into the weekend, models show the upper ridge shifting a little bit west leading to N or NW flow, or at least a weakening in the influence of the upper ridge over portions of the fa. Due to the subtle nature and uncertainty as to the shift of the ridge, there is some uncertainty when and/or how far west across the fa rain chances will be late this week into the weekend. The shifting of the ridge along with any clouds/rain is expected to lead to slightly cooler temperatures late this week and over the weekend.
High pressure continues to move east over the region which should lead to mostly clear skies this afternoon.
Tonight Through Thursday The late July cold front continues to make southerly progress across the state this afternoon with nearly a 10 degree Td difference from northern to southern Arkansas. Through the early evening hours, with the cold front and upper trough in the vicinity, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly southern Arkansas. While slightly drier Td values will be seen on Wednesday, H500 ridging west of the area will shift east a bit which will do little in the way of cooling temperatures Wednesday afternoon. Beyond Wednesday, H500 ridging will retract westward a bit and become centered over portions of NM/TX. Troughing will remain in place across the eastern half of the country which will provide fairly steep northwesterly flow aloft locally.
141 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through Wednesday with the encroachment of a cold front. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers should continue overnight under upper troughing, and with the slow approach of a cold front. Scattered to nmrs showers/storms are expected to increase later today as the troughing persists, and the cold front continues its slow advancement across the region.
1057 PM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 19z surface analysis had high over the Midwest with lee trough from central MT into eastern CO.
238 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure over the area bringing another comfortable night with clear skies and calm to light winds. Today and tonight: High pressure will remain in control bringing mainly clear skies, light winds and comfortable temperatures and humidity. Highs will be in the lower 80s with lows in the mid 50s to around 60.
330 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An upper level high will continue to dominate the pattern through most the forecast period resulting in hot temperatures and low to non-existent rain chances. The upper high is currently centered over western NM and is slowly pushing eastward.
This was occuring in an area of mid level convergence as a short wave was moving over the upper level ridge over the western CONUS and sliding south across the eastern edge of the ridge. The convection will also bring more cloud cover over the the Ozarks which should help keep temperatures in check this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
The lowest rain chances will be along the east coast and beaches (around 30 percent) and highest across the interior (40-50 percent). Interestingly, about half of the high resolution models indicate convection may blow back east across parts of Orange and Osceola Counties and into Brevard late this evening. Light southeast winds this morning will become onshore at around 10 knots by this afternoon as the Atlantic high pressure builds over the area.
The upper trough axis will continue to swing east today and push the surface boundary and moisture east as well. Temperatures will only be a degree or two cooler than yesterday with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
/issued 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ High pressure will hold over the region today and Thursday with weak east to southeast flow across the peninsula. Weak U/L troughing is also expected to develop over the area which will increase convective instability.
The upper level ridge remains firmly over the western two-thirds of the country.
After today, a trough of low pressure near the West Coast will bring drier southwest flow aloft for Thursday into the weekend.
/issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ A large and nearly stationary upper level ridge of high pressure from the the rockies to the plains will be the main weather influence for west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next several days.
410 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery positioned the center of the upper high over northeast NM, with a subtropical moisture plume extending from AZ into western WY. Convective allowing models and soundings prog 1500-2500 j/kg MUCAPE and 30-35 kt 0-6km shear, with the higher values over east- central WY.
Today Through Thursday Night The center of upper ridging will remain nearly stationary in the lee of the southern Rockies through most of the period with a gradual shift west by late week and beyond. The influence of ridging will be most pronounced today with dry weather expected and near to slightly below average temperatures but abundant humidity. The surface boundary will linger and provide additional focus for convection through and beyond the end of the period as additional impulses translate around the eastern periphery of upper ridging.
616 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 For the short range, a strong mid level ridge centered over the southern high plains will continue to build slowly north over the next couple of days. Energy flowing through that ridge will provide for occasional chances for rain/convection. For now will maintain low pops, which reflects the low confidence that anything will fire up. However, by late Thursday into Thursday night, a decent looking wave is expected to ride the ridge, and then move out into the plains.
Updated at 310 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Regional observations show the broad cold front strewn across central KY in a N-S orientation under mostly clear skies. Though the cold front will have exited our area by late morning, max temperatures will remain on the warm side ranging from the mid to upper 80s. Clearing skies overnight into Thursday morning likely will promote another round of AM fog for much of the CWA with morning low temps ranging from the low to mid 60s. We look to have broad ridging across the western U. Lower thicknesses associated with that troughing will mean continued near normal temperatures most of the period.
613 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Lower VFR to MVFR stratus will be slowly to erode this morning as influx of dry low level air will be minimal until trough axis finally passes east this afternoon/evening. High pressure will bring clearing into this evening which will hold into Thursday. Dry northwest flow and sprawling high pressure (1023 MB)/anti-cyclonic flow building into the Central Great Lakes will eventually win out, arriving tonight and more or less holding on through the weekend as upper level ridge axis over Central Canada is slow to break down.
Temps today will be warmer than yesterday, considering new 12z sounding data and guidance.
1034 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 12z RAOBs and WV imagery places an upper trough axis across the region this morning with a weak front across the Ohio Valley. With weak low-level forcing across the forecast area, believe that mesoscale forcing along the higher terrain and any outflow boundaries will be the predominant location for scattered afternoon convection. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 91 70 / 40 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 69 88 68 / 40 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 86 68 89 67 / 40 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 86 64 / 60 30 50 30.