Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. WITH HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PARK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALLOW AN UPPER TROF TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES.
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND DISPLACE THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2015 An upper level ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states will shift westward and expand this weekend. Temperatures will be a degree or two hotter on Sunday with most areas in the lower 90s. Dewpoints will remain rather high in the lower to middle 70s at times over the next several days because of all the moisture and water on the ground.
THINK THE RISK IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FAR EAST TO NEAR 100 DEGREES THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY ZONES. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES FOR SUNDAY. LOOK FOR JUST ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
GENERAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN OF A SOUTHWESTERN H5 RIDGE AND NORTHEASTERN H5 TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE M/SUNNY AND LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. RETROGRADING RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.
340 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PATTERN. HIGH TEMPS WILL WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN START TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST.
WITH 3 PM CDT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY. SAVE FOR THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE FIRST OF MANY WARM AND DRY DAYS FOR THE REGION /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S/ WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTING FORMIDABLE INFLUENCE OVER SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME POSSIBLE SUMMER TIME CU DEVELOPING WITH WINDS FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRAG SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.
451 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LATEST MODEL DATA ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST AREA. WITH MAJOR TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR AND CLOUD COVER.
1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE 500MB RIDGE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NORTH TEXAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
/ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE HAD SPREAD FARTHER WEST FROM EVENING OBSERVATIONS. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TODAY AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS 594/595 DM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF INCLUDING SE TX. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE OVER MUCH OF TX AND S PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE S PLAINS AND TX FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.
A COOL TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY. ENOUGH INCOMING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PER THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER THOUGH. THIS IS BECAUSE WE'RE LOSING THE SOUTHERLY OR WEAK FLOW ALOFT THAT WE'VE SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING.
THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL CONTINUE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS POINT TO A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AT MIDWEEK AS ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENING THE RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD CUTTING OFF THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY.
AN UPPER TROUGH HAS SET UP OFF THE COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE COAST NOW. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA. SIMPLY BECAUSE THE PATTERN AND THE PARAMETERS THAT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT VERY ROBUST TOMORROW AND THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING.
204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AS UPPER HIGH TAKES HOLD. /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ IT APPEARS THE WET STRETCH OF LATE WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD THIS WAY TODAY AND BECOMES CENTERED NEARBY ON SUNDAY. BEFORE THE RIDGE TAKES FULL CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THOUGH THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF AFTER DARK AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTS ITSELF. RANGING FROM THE MID-60S AROUND FRIONA TO LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OUT EAST.
326 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE BROAD RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND COMPACT LOW OPENS UP AND PASSES TO THE NORTH.
600 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 00Z TAF issuance VFR conditions will persist into Sunday as an upper ridge begins to take hold on the area. /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over NE Texas, and extending across most of the CONUS. Convection is trying to get going over the Sacramentos, and models suggest isolated orographic activity overnight invof the Guadalupes but, otherwise, the theta-e ridge exits to the NW overnight and Sunday as the upper ridge builds WNW into the region.
MORNING LCH SOUNDING INDICATING A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETROGRADING OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE COMING NEW WEEK.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA IN NW TO N UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE HIGH. ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH CTRL GA SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR SRN GA COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ALTHOUGH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE BROAD RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND COMPACT LOW OPENS UP AND PASSES TO THE NORTH.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POP'S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH THE MCS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO PREVALENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW/MID 70S.
Lows tonight will range from around 70 to the lower 70s.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AFTER THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY HEAD EAST. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY WILL BE M/SUNNY AND LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. RETROGRADING RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR LIKELY OCCURRING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MT WITH SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. LOW CENTER OVER MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL SD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SW FLOW IN THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT VERY WARM WITH THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW OVER MT WORKS SLOWLY NEWD INTO SRN SASK WITH CONTINUED DRY SW/W FLOW OVER THE CWFA. THERMAL PROFILES ALONG WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUGGEST EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY.
all in response to modest warm air advection that continues to overrun a warm front now located just south of the Missouri River. Current thinking is this activity will weaken with time as the low-level jet continues to veer and thus have shown an improving trend after sunrise across much of the area. The other main item today will be the noticeably warmer temps as southerly flow returns and warm air advection gets underway. expect a warm and muggy ngt with overnight lows barely falling into the lower to middle 70s.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND TROUGHING OFF THE COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 500-HPA RIDGE STARTS TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND DOWNSLOPE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. AGAIN, WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE, IT REMAINS DUBIOUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ACTUALLY THE HIGH WE HAVE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW FOR HAYS.
539 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2015 A flat upper ridge centered over over the Arklatex region will retrograde a bit back into the Plains Sunday then amplify a bit. A blend of guidance puts afternoon max heat index values around 98-103 deg over the region with the higher values over the western and northern cwfa. The upper level ridge axis continues to amplify out to our west over the Plains Mon-Tue. Some differences exist with medium range guidance with regards to the position and amplitude of the upper ridge by Thu-Sat with the GFS a little less bullish with precip chances versus the ECMWF. The GFS keeps the upper ridge a bit farther north and closer to the cwfa. VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with upper level ridge in place over the area.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT DOWNSLOPE DRYING ON SUNDAY BUT ENHANCED ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST.
224 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2015 A flat upper ridge centered over over the Arklatex region will retrograde a bit back into the Plains Sunday then amplify a bit. A blend of guidance puts afternoon max heat index values around 98-103 deg over the region with the higher values over the western and northern cwfa. The upper level ridge axis continues to amplify out to our west over the Plains Mon-Tue. Some differences exist with medium range guidance with regards to the position and amplitude of the upper ridge by Thu-Sat with the GFS a little less bullish with precip chances versus the ECMWF. The GFS keeps the upper ridge a bit farther north and closer to the cwfa. Flight conditions for terminals across the Ozarks will remain VFR through the forecast period as high pressure moves over the region.
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THIS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
158 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AVIATION/HYDRO FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
349 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 Tonight: A complex of thunderstorms over southern Iowa and far northern Missouri during the morning hours has left an outflow boundary that currently stretches along/near the Highway 36 corridor.
WITH STORMS AGAIN FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105.
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
638 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE FARTHER WEST.
BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK THE CAP. WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S.
THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY QUIET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE TO SD TO MT. MAIN TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN CA SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORT WAVES/UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES.
309 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LATEST MODEL DATA ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST AREA. WITH MAJOR TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR AND CLOUD COVER. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
402 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER AND MID SUMMER WARMTH ON SUNDAY.
346 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) Quiet weather in the short term, with the upper level high pressure become centered directly over the area by Sunday morning.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM SUN NIGHT-NEXT SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR NORTH AMERICA WITH MEAN RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH THE WESTERLIES BEING DISPLACED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES.
144 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA INTO SUNDAY.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN. SO DESPITE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
A THERMAL TROUGH WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM PARTS OF NM AND TX UP INTO ERN WY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO UP TO NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER SOUTH OF KEARNEY THEN SEWD TOWARD SRN MO. SOME COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF OMAHA AND SOME HOTTER READINGS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN. 03Z SPC SREF AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL.
226 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
153 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAKE US A BIT WARMER AND A BIT MORE CAPPED ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE LOW NOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THE RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS NEAR THE WEST COAST HAS FILLED A BIT. THE RIDGE IS BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREAS ON THE WESTERN INFLECTION OF THE RIDGE STANDING A GOOD CHANCE OF KEEPING SOME STORMS GOING OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND IS DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN TIER STATES ALMOST COAST-TO-COAST AROUND MID WEEK. SOME OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON A DEVELOPING HIGHER LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
TWO REGIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE DENOTED WITH ONE CENTERED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL INVERSIONS SHOWN ON THE 12Z DRT AND FWD SOUNDINGS BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. THE CONTINUED DECREASE IN MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SLIDES TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS TOMORROW.
309 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA WITH RIDGING UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. SMALL COMPLEX OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHORT WAVE RUNNING ACROSS TOP OF RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTSOUTHEAST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. ALONG EASTERN FRINGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALONG A LEE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHIFTS OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
257 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015 TYPICAL ZEPHYR BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, THEN WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA.
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AND STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEWPOINT HAS MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RIVER DUE TO THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CLOUDS COULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER BUT A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD STILL LEAD TO HIGH HEAT INDICES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT FROM A POSITION CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON TO A POSITION CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED LIGHT MONSOON FLOW INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER OKLAHOMA. SHEAR VALUES SHOULD COME UP A LITTLE AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
A GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE COULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. MORE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEP THE COLUMN QUITE DRY ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. THE MORNING MAY START OFF WITH A SLIGHT MUGGINESS BUT ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE SOLAR INSOLATION PROVIDES SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A DRY FORECAST.
AN INVERTED SFC TROF WAS LOCATED OVER EAST ALABAMA WITH EAST WINDS AT TAF SITES KANB AND KTOI. THIS TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THRU 01Z.
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM NEAR GREEN BAY WI TO OLWEIN IA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
352 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH SOME EVEN WEAKER TROUGH AXES TO SERVE AS THE INITIATOR FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE US A BIT OF A BOOST FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BOOST US INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY ELONGATE AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF STILL CONSIDERABLY STRONGER IN HOLDING ONTO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE PENINSULA. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.