Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
08z surface map indicated 1024 mb high over eastern ND with a ridge axis extending southeast into southern IL. However it appears to be so light that it's not accumulating or freezing on surfaces. Will mention patchy freezing drizzle in the grids early this morning with light fog dissipating through mid to late morning. This means plenty of low stratus, light winds, and persistence highs in the low to mid 30s.
1008 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 A cold front will cross the area tonight. Weak high pressure builds over the area Tuesday. Another cold front crosses the area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
High pressure will build into the region tonight allowing for light winds. Tomorrow a mid-level trough will move into the southern Plains as a weaker upper level trough moves into the northern and central Plains. Tomorrow night the upper level trough will move into the area.
This could create a travel hazard during commute time across bridges and overpasses where roads could become slick. Models suggest that the low clouds should dissipate/ retrograde south to north by this afternoon, which should create a pretty decent temperature gradient today. I'm going to run well below guidance across the northern half of the area due to the cloud cover, but southern counties should reach the low 50s today.
High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the lowlands and in the upper 20s in the mountains. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s for the lowlands, with lower 20s in the mountains. Generally tranquil conditions midweek with the exception of a few rain/snow showers from a passing s/w trof late Wednesday.
Otherwise, today will bring dry conditions and warmer temperatures amid slight height rises. High clouds will initially be on the increase this afternoon and evening as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the next incoming trough. The lion's share of the rainfall coverage will increase Wednesday afternoon as the upper trough pushes into the area.
It will continue to inch south and should keep temperatures cool and steady in the low 30s for at least areas north of I-40. Clouds are expected to stick around on Tuesday and limit high temperatures to the low 40s where it remains overcast.
A low pressure system with a cold front is in north Texas and will move toward Arkansas tonight and Tuesday. A low pressure system with a cold front is in north Texas and will move toward Arkansas tonight and Tuesday. For once it appears that freezing rain will not be a concern, so more than likely we will be dealing with rain, snow, and a rain/snow mix. Some areas, notably the higher terrain, may trend more toward all snow by Wednesday morning. Despite that, I am not seeing much accumulation across northern Arkansas with this, mainly a tenth to perhaps a quarter inch of snow, with most of that in the higher elevations.
A potent cold front will move through the region early Tuesday morning, with northerly sustained surface winds increasing to 20-25 knots for all terminals with locally higher gusts. Model guidance seems to be in reasonable agreement in regards to the path of this system however surface temperatures are a bit in flux depending on how quickly the cold front can push through the area. While there is the potential for some wet snow flakes to fall during the early morning hours Tuesday expect surface temps to remain at or above freezing so accumulations should be non existent. As the cold front moves through, northerly winds will ramp up into the 25-30 mph range behind it and remain elevated through at least early Tuesday afternoon.
A weak pressure gradient will be in place today with gentle northerly surface winds as high pressure will reside just to our northwest.
Readings were generally in the 30-32 degree range with the urban centers remaining a few degrees warmer. Between now and sunrise, no significant weather is expected other than some patchy fog here and there with skies remaining cloudy and temps holding steady in the lower 30s. Lows tonight will likely be in the lower 30s. Temperatures in the morning will be below freezing north of the Kentucky parkways which will probably start things off as a light wintry mix that will quickly change over to all rain as temperatures warm for the day. Wednesday night, the jet stream comes back together forming an upper ridge which will push the Gulf Coast system to the southeast further away from the Ohio Valley.
From synopsis: A small low pressure center southwest of Tampa Bay will move east- southeastward tonight, dragging a trough through our region tonight and Tuesday.
High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the lowlands and in the upper 20s in the mountains. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s for the lowlands, with lower 20s in the mountains.
Weak high pressure will take hold Tuesday through Wednesday. Mid level short wave trough moving through the area this evening. Will continue slight chance pops next couple of hours north of CAE with trough still upstream. Weak high pressure will be in control over the area through Tuesday night.
329 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Some light precipitation expected today - Snow in the forecast for Fri/Sat - Temperatures stagnant much of this week, warming into weekend -- Some light precipitation expected today -- We are thinking we will see some patchy freezing drizzle or flurries today, but we are not expecting any impact.
Readings have ranged from around freezing in the areas shrouded with low clouds to the lower 50s under ample sunshine in southern sections of southeast MO and western KY. At the same time, it looks like a northern stream short wave will dive southeastward into the back side of the deeper southern stream trof. However, given the light precipitation rates and temperatures at or slightly above freezing in many areas, current thinking is that overall impacts will be low with this event.
High pressure overhead this morning will lead to mostly sunny skies across the CWA. Temperatures, which will start in the lower 30s this morning, will quickly rise with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s.
However the Advisory will be allowed to continue as road conditions across the mountains will continue to be slick overnight, as well as some potential for freezing fog. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 37 48 37 51 / 0 20 40 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 34 46 36 48 / 0 10 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 34 46 35 48 / 0 10 30 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 30 45 33 44 / 0 0 20 30 20 TN.
Temperatures are currently in the low/mid 40s across much of the area as of 8 PM, although locations in the TN Valley have already dropped into the upper 30s. A stellar afternoon underway across the Mid-South with mostly sunny and mild temperatures as weak high pressure builds into the region. An upper level trough moving out of the southern Rockies will approach the region later on Tuesday. The NAM has trended warmer with the recent 18z run though. Weak high pressure will start building in Wednesday night with lows in the 30s.
Forecast will continue to simply call for flurries at times today through early tonight, leaning on recent model soundings which indicate the top of the moist layer will reside within a cold enough layer to maintain ice in the column versus remaining in liquid form and translating into pockets of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Subtle cold air advection in the wake of this perturbation will ease readings down into the lower to middle 20s by Wednesday morning.
GOES 16 nighttime RGB shows widespread MVFR decks across the area and TSRA forming in central Texas with the approaching trough. Showers should taper off towards the end of the TAF period, but we will need to monitor any lingering wrap around activity as the upper low moves over Louisiana. Clouds have been slow to clear across parts of Southeast Texas today resulting in cooler than expected afternoon highs (so far). Storm system and associated cold front are still on schedule to move into and across the area tomorrow. This activity will spread eastward during the day, and it should be all to the east of the I-45 corridor around or shortly after 6 PM when the cold front moves through the area. Look for cooler, drier and breezy/windy conditions Tuesday night and on into Wednesday morning.
1052 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020 A mid-level trough of low pressure/weak pv-advection drops south out of Canada into the region tonight. Patchy light freezing drizzle or snow grains is anticipated as a result of this lift. Will have to keep an eye on how widespread/intense the freezing drizzle will be -possibly leading to some slick roadways. The mid-level trough/lift moves southeast of the area by daybreak Tuesday which should shut down freezing drizzle/light snow threat. For the rest of the day a ridge of high pressure will build into the region. Short wave troughs will continue to come onshore from the northern Pacific, top the weak ridging over the Rockies and then cross the central part of the country.
Added in the potential for freezing drizzle into the forecast across parts of the mountains tonight based on obs and model soundings. In the mountains, snow could linger into the day tomorrow; however, totals should be fairly low with two inches possible in the highest elevations and less than an inch elsewhere in the mountains. Generally tranquil conditions midweek with the exception of a few rain/snow showers from a passing s/w trof late Wednesday.
101 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 A wintry mix of snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle is possible overnight into Tuesday, with the best chances near Lake Michigan and west of interstate 69.
For the moment, most model guidance has kept the warm sector over our offshore waters as the low pressure system develops along the baroclinic zone currently located along the northern Gulf of Mexico due to cooler shelf waters.
Can't rule out some drizzle or freezing drizzle at times tonight. Lows tonight will be around 31 across most of the area, but a little warmer along the Arkansas Border with lows in the mid 30s. A couple pieces of upper level energy will converge Tuesday into Tuesday night, leading to deepening lower-mid level low pressure to the south of the CWA. Models show a surface to 850mb closed low moving from the TX Panhandle to northern LA and southern AR. With temperatures being near freezing, current thinking is that impacts will be limited given light amounts currently forecast.
topping out in the lower to middle 30s. 08z surface map indicated 1024 mb high over eastern ND with a ridge axis extending southeast into southern IL. However it appears to be so light that it's not accumulating or freezing on surfaces. Will mention patchy freezing drizzle in the grids early this morning with light fog dissipating through mid to late morning. This means plenty of low stratus, light winds, and persistence highs in the low to mid 30s.
Despite the low humidity though low ERC values and light winds will preclude Red Flag conditions.
Skies should remain cloudy throughout the day with cold air advection causing slightly cooler temperatures today as highs only reach the middle to upper 20s during the afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures are expected tonight despite the continued cloud cover as overnight lows sink to around 10 across the north, with middle to upper teens across east-central Wisconsin.
This will yield higher snow total possibilities across northwest portions of Oklahoma as colder air over Kansas is drawn southward in the lower levels. Storm system exits this evening and overnight, and with warmer air wrapping into the lower levels of the system, it will be hard for the snow line to progress into central portions of Oklahoma. (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Longwave trough still expected to affect the late week period with mainly plenty of cloud cover. Still cannot rule out period of light mid-level based showers as trough passes, but will keep mentionable pops across the Red River valley and northern Texas counties.
145 AM PST Tue Jan 28 2020 A weak trough of low pressure will move across the Pacific Northwest today before a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather pattern over the West Coast through the upcoming weekend. Forecast models push the Pac NW trough eastward and dive a closed low into the Great Basin tonight and Wednesday with the low moving to a position over Arizona by Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather pattern will continue into the weekend as forecast models build a very strong high pressure area over California.
407 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Low pressure well northeast of the area and high pressure across the Plains states will continue to influence the weather today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area tonight and early Wednesday.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad area of ascent along and ahead of a north-south trough progressing east through Northern and Central Plains. Expect daytime high temperatures to only reach the 20s at most locations, with the exception being far south central SD where temperatures may rise to near the freezing mark.
There is a slim chance for isolated freezing drizzle, and if any develops some slick spots will be possible. As high pressure moves through Ontario winds will shift to the northeast tonight into Wednesday.
As the upper trough further develops today, the track of the 700 mb low will move due east across Oklahoma. Low clouds should keep highs in the low to mid 30s. By the evening and overnight hours, vorticity advection ahead of the trough axis will lead to a more organized but short- lived band of snow. With road temperatures right around freezing and light accumulations of snow expected, have decided against issuing a winter weather advisory for now.
Fog has developed especially in the typical valleys and along rivers and potentially freezing fog as temperatures are hovering right around freezing this morning. High pressure overhead this morning will lead to mostly sunny skies across the CWA. Temperatures, which will start in the lower 30s this morning, will quickly rise with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s.
243 AM MST Tue Jan 28 2020 A north to south oriented band of light snow will continue to move eastward across western South Dakota early this morning as the upper trough crosses the region. Subsidence behind the departing upper trough and a ridge building to the west will then clear out the clouds from west to east with mostly sunny skies expected through the rest of today. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than the seasonable averages for today and on Wednesday.
The parent upper level low is moving east through the TX Panhandle area, and will continue moving east-southeast throughout the day today. As for precipitation chances today, we may see a few showers north of I-20 as the upper low slides east across North Texas. The bigger story will be winds and cooler temperatures. After highs in the 70s to 80 degrees yesterday, highs on Tuesday will only warm into the low to mid 50s for most locations. The cooler weather will be partly the result of mostly cloudy skies, but largely the result of a strong cold front moving through the area. The cold front will also bring windy conditions to the area.
East/ northeast surface winds will pull colder air in, particularly northwest, with rain mixing with sleet/snow late tonight and early Wednesday morning in the higher elevations of the Ozarks. With the models coming back warmer each run, have backed off on forecast snow amounts, as it now looks like any areas that measure would be maybe a few tenths at the most. At any rate, the surface system will move into the central Gulf coast region by Wednesday Night as the upper low opens back up and shifts into the Tennessee Valley.
A trough over extreme South Florida and our region early this morning will sag southeastward before dissipating later today.
421 AM MST Tue Jan 28 2020 A north to south oriented band of light snow will continue to move eastward across western South Dakota early this morning as the upper trough crosses the region. Subsidence behind the departing upper trough and a ridge building to the west will then clear out the clouds from west to east with mostly sunny skies expected through the rest of today. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than the seasonable averages for today and on Wednesday.
632 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 An upper trough extends south across the High Plains early this morning. While winds are very light across most of western Nebraska, a Pacific cold front is bringing gusty northwest winds across the southern panhandle east into Ogallala. Temperatures continue to range mostly in the lower 30s most areas. The upper trough axis will move east today and begin to exit the areas zones by 00Z Wednesday. There will be a chance for light snow today just ahead of the trough axis. On Wednesday, another upper trough will drop trough Montana, into the Dakotas and Wyoming, bringing mostly cloudy skies to western Nebraska.
615 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Aviation - Some light precipitation expected today - Snow in the forecast for Fri/Sat - Temperatures stagnant much of this week, warming into weekend -- Some light precipitation expected today -- We are thinking we will see some patchy freezing drizzle or flurries today, but we are not expecting any impact.
These will continue to shift to the SE today as high pressure and drier air move in across the area. High pressure then shifts east as an area of low pressure moves east across the northern Gulf coast Wednesday and across the state Wednesday afternoon/night. Scattered to numerous showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible with the low.
430 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Very light snow and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle can be expected early this morning that may cause a few slick spots on roads.
/Today through Wednesday/ A surface and upper-level trough will shift east across the region today supporting showers with isolated thunderstorms areawide.
946 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Low pressure well northeast of the area and high pressure across the Plains states will continue to influence the weather today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area tonight and early Wednesday.
So far this low has brought gusty winds and a few high-based showers to our area and it looks like the winds will not let up until later this evening. Winds will continue to pivot around to the north today as a cold front pushes into the region.
Observations this morning range from fog across portions of the Coteau to flurries and/or freezing drizzle across the James Valley to light snow showers along/west of the Missouri River. Until then, flurries/freezing drizzle may continue to some extent. Have issued an SPS for freezing drizzle across portions of the James Valley through 7am.
Stratus clouds have remained over the high mountain valleys as the low level moisture has be trapped west of the Continental Divide. Dry weather across the forecast area is expected to be short- lived as another upper trough will be heading for the Great Basin by tonight. This system will be digging southward across Utah and Arizona through Wednesday, but short range models show precipitation developing in the Colorado mountains tonight as forcing for ascent will be present to the east of the digging trough axis. For mid-week, an upper level trough will be over northern Utah with moisture embedded in westerly flow aloft over western Colorado. Some jet dynamics combined with weak orographics will bring snow to the higher terrain by early Wednesday.
932 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 High pressure will move across the region through Tuesday night.
The clear skies have allowed temperatures to radiate several degrees cooler than yesterday's crossover temperatures, so at least patchy fog has developed in most places. Low clouds through the morning will give way to an approaching shield of mid-level clouds by the afternoon as a low pressure system edges eastward from Texas. Warmer temperatures can be expected tonight with winds from the east and increased cloud cover.
643 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Weak high pressure will take hold of the area today through Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build across the area today and tonight.
548 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 For this morning, still dealing with low stratus, fog and some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle across the forecast area. At this time, do not feel that the patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle is causing any impacts, so will not issue any short fuse advisory for this morning. Did keep mention of patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle in through 15z today for portions of central/east central and southeast MO as well as southwestern IL. As for temperatures through the period, expect another cold night tonight with lows in the low 20s to low 30s.
355 AM MST Tue Jan 28 2020 Weak ridging will start the day across the state, with a quick return of moisture ahead of the next system.
944 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Temperatures as of 9 AM this morning range from the mid 70s in portions of the Lower Keys to the upper 60s across the Upper Keys. The 12z KEY RAOB measured precipitable water (PWAT) at just under an inch and a half with ample moisture still present in the low-levels. In addition, convergent cumulus boundaries are seen on GOES-East visible imagery streaming towards the Lower Keys, but the best convergence and scattered showers are ongoing in the outer Straits of Florida. The remnant trough that is supporting this activity will gradually slide south today.
Clouds will increase from west to east tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of the next low pressure system. A weak pressure gradient will be in place today with gentle northerly surface winds as high pressure will reside just to our northwest.
The forecast period begins with a weak ridge over the Central High Plains and southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. An upper trough situated over the Rockies will split into a northern flow and a southern flow through the day. The southern extent of the trough will dig south into portions of Northern Mexico where a mid-level low is expected to develop.
Temperatures today will generally hover right around the freezing mark through much of the day and then may climb a bit more across our west late this afternoon if we can catch a few late day breaks in the clouds. The temperatures this afternoon right around and probably just above freezing are another reason why we don't expect much if any snow accumulation through the day.
632 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Very light snow and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle can be expected early this morning that may cause a few slick spots on roads.
502 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Primary forecast focus is a low pressure system producing light snow across much of the area. This is due to the aforementioned low pressure system south of the area.
The eastward progression of the the ridge will allow for onshore flow to develop. This setup will bring warmer temperatures and increasing moisture to the local area today.
639 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Weak high pressure will take hold of the area today through Wednesday. Mid level short wave trough moving through the area this morning was spreading clouds into Lancaster and Chesterfield counties. Weak high pressure will build across the area today and tonight.
959 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Weak high pressure will take hold of the area today through Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region today and tonight.
450 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 High pressure will move across the region through Tuesday night.
Today weather will be influenced by a low pressure system now over the Texas panhandle. As the low continues to move east across north Texas today, light rain will slowly move into the Mid-South from west to east.
306 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Primary forecast focus is a low pressure system producing light snow across much of the area. This is due to the aforementioned low pressure system south of the area.