Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 321 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2017/ Northwest flow aloft continues overhead due to the presence of a deep upper trough over the eastern half of the country and a ridge over the west. ridge has already begun to influence North and Central Texas in the form of Spring-like temperatures during the day. This warming trend will continue for the next couple of days as the western ridge expands east across the central part of the CONUS, with lows in the 40s and highs mainly in the 70s expected through mid-week.
Temperatures are already warmer now then the highs yesterday, and expect highs to top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Most spots should see mid to upper 30s, with east central KY likely dipping into the low 30s.
336 AM PST Mon Jan 30 2017 High pressure aloft over California will continue above average high temperatures today.
Guidance is still struggling with mixing as the BUFKIT soundings are showing and since this appears to be a case where mixing will make a big difference it might explain why so many of the models and guidance values are what appear to be on the low end. Given the highs that we are expecting we should have a good chance to mix to these levels. With the wind remaining strong through the night the diurnal range will be small, so expecting lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s as cooler air aloft spills in.
332 AM MST Mon Jan 30 2017 A broad ridge of high pressure over the western US will continue to dominate the short term forecast. Dry conditions will persist with high clouds wrapping around the ridge through Tuesday.
Latest surface analysis indicates a weak area of high pressure was located just to our west and that feature will drift over our area through the mid morning hours. Models continue to suggest the bulk of the precipitation associated with the low and mid level warm advection pattern will remain just to our north. Lows will only drop back into the low to mid 30s, but that won't occur until just before 12z Tuesday with most of our area well into the 30s to low 40s for a good portion of the night. The mid level ridge in the west provides some warmer temps for Tuesday. A warm front will approach the forecast area today bringing an increase in clouds across our western sites this morning, and over the remainder of the TAF sites this afternoon.
The upper level ridge over California, the Great Basin and parts of the Desert Southwest will gradually weaken today and tonight, and a weak upper low will drift southeast over the Baja Peninsula. Temperatures will be warmer today with full sunshine and increasing 850mb temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the lower 40s across the Big Country area along and north of Interstate 20, where wind speeds will be a little higher. Northwest flow transitioning slowly to flat ridging by the end of the week.
546 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 A coastal low pressure will develop off southern New England today. Behind it a cold front will usher in high pressure for tonight.
The upper ridge anchored over the interior NW will gradually flatten as a low approaches from the Gulf of Alaska. This systems southern reach is still uncertain as it will be moving into a strong ridge being supported by a deep low off the CA coast.
Expect snow shower coverage south of Pittsburgh to continue to decrease through the morning as midlevel trough axis passes east. However, lake/terrain influences will keep snow showers going well into the afternoon in the northern counties and along the ridges. Still appears that most activity will cease by sunset, with a lull of several hours before the next warm front/clipper system. Another system will quickly cross the Great Lakes tonight, spreading light snow across the region along a lifting warm front. Details will continue to be fleshed out as the system gets closer, but at this time, will include accumulating snow for much of the area, with the highest north of Pittsburgh through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A zonal mid-level flow is expected to persist over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in between 500 mb troughiness over the Eastern Seaboard and closed 500 mb low pressure over the Baja Peninsula.
Persistence along with mos guidance lead to going a few degrees warmer than previous forecast with readings in the lower and middle 60s. Tonight, clouds begin to increase from the passing upper trough to our northeast.
Another chilly night is expected tonight with lows in the lower to middle 40s with upper 40s/lower 50s along the immediate coast.
decided to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Arlington area. Added the I-80 summit and foothills to the High Wind Watch for tonight and Tuesday with models now showing 700mb winds around 65 mph and decent 700mb subsidence.
1004 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 A coastal low pressure will develop off southern New England today. Behind it a cold front will usher in high pressure for tonight.
A dry airmass will continue over the area today as upper level troughing moves east of the area with deep layer northwesterly flow in its wake.
/issued 431 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A zonal mid-level flow is expected to persist over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in between 500 mb troughiness over the Eastern Seaboard and closed 500 mb low pressure over the Baja Peninsula.
630 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 A cold front will move offshore early today. Cold high pressure will build into the region through tonight, then move offshore Tuesday afternoon. Winds will diminish by sunset as high pressure builds overhead. This happens in response to the high pressure moving offshore quickly early Tuesday. Mean troughing will generally continue across the Eastern U.
High pressure will remain over California through Tuesday, maintaining dry weather conditions and resulting in continued warm daytime temperatures.
/Issued 404 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017/ Relatively quiet fcst on tap with ridge dominated regime and NW flow aloft. Expect gradient winds to be enhanced out of the WNW today gusting up to 25 mph so should still seem a bit cool for skin temps despite slightly warmer highs today for most locations though a few degrees below norms.
An upper trough was centered over the eastern Pacific early this morning. Downstream from the trough, an upper ridge was in the process of building and sharpening immediately offshore from the west coast, with high clouds spilling eastward across much of the area. At the surface, high pressure was positioned over the northern Great Basin, with a weaker area of high pressure located off the coast of California.
Brief upper ridging will move through the area today bringing partly sunny skies to the area for part of the day.
High pressure over the region will lead to above normal temperatures for most areas along with lighter winds. A Pacific storm system will bring snow to the highest elevations of the Sierra as well as breezy to windy conditions elsewhere for the last part of the week.
637 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 A low pressure system will move southeast across the southern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday, causing snow in our area, mainly north of Route 30.
Downslope flow ahead of a very weak cold front will allow temperatures to rise well into the 60s today. There may be readings near 70 on the lower terrain at Ashland where the west to northwesterly downslope winds will have descended the most.
The upper trough is shifting east this morning with mostly clear skies prevailing across the region with just a few patches of mid cloud.
Gusty NW winds are ushering in a much drier airmass behind a cold front. The post frontal wind surge will diminish this afternoon as high pressure noses in from the Gulf of Mexico and pressure gradient slackens. High pressure will settle over central Florida resulting in very light/calm winds and clear skies. While freezing temperatures are not expected, conditions are favorable for patchy to areas of frost late tonight/early Tue. Gusty NW winds up to 25 knots will occur into early afternoon behind a cold front then gustiness will subside as high pressure noses in from the Gulf of Mexico. Tight pgrad in the wake of a cold front pushing into the Lake-O region. Strong dry advection pattern will prevail behind a cold front pushing into the Lake-O region.
Dew points remain in the low 70s, so it's still pretty humid out there. While temperatures look to soar into the middle 90s with heat index values climb into the triple digits, we should remain rain-free as weak ridging influences offer subsidence to a good portion of the state.
938 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 A broad subtropical ridge centered over much of the desert SW of the U. Hot, humid, and dry conditions will continue across most of the region as upper level ridging continues to build in from the west. A slight chance of showers/t-storms are possible across our far southern counties/parishes, as models hint at isolated convection during peak day time heating along the edge of the ridge. The ridge will shift to the SW on Thursday, which will allow possible convection to move into the region from the north, as models suggest a complex of storms developing across N.
/issued 314 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ Strong upper ridge centered near ELP this morning will continue to dominate the wx for the coming week. The unseasonably hot weather will continue as upper ridge remains entrenched over the southern half of the country.
A warming trend is forecast for inland areas today and tomorrow as an upper level high builds in from the Desert Southwest. These warm conditions will persist through late in the week as cooler temperatures continue near the coast. Inland temperatures will cool back to near seasonal averages over the weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the West Coast. High pressure aloft extending northwestward from the Desert Southwest will boost inland max temperatures into the 80s and 90s today with the hottest inland areas exceeding the 100 degree mark.
Upper low vortex in southern Canadian plains will push the front through with a return to near to slightly below normal temperatures into this weekend. The slight risk from Storm Prediction Center is reasonable at this stage as likely any damaging winds would be at or below 70 MPH at this time along with possibly hail to near quarter size as a secondary risk due to high freezing levels with WBZ aoa 12. This along with dewpoints in the lower 70s will allow for heat indices to reach into the mid to upper 90s for several hours over the southern 2/3 of the region. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Thursday/Thursday night as high pressure moves into the Midwest.
The proximity to the trough should keep surface winds at KDHT and KGUY fairly light with occasional gusts up to 20kt being possible. At the surface, leeside troughing remains the main weather feature, though the associated low pressure center is expected to move eastward later on today and tonight. As the trough axis sharpens across the Panhandles, compressional heating will once again allow temperatures to climb steadily above guidance in the western half of the Panhandles.
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A weak short wave trough is currently passing through eastern KY. A weak cold front will approach the region from the north tonight. Warm air advection will increase ahead of the front as the system's upper level trough also approaches. The surface front and upper trough will continue to approach on Thursday, and with daytime heating thrown into the mix, an increase in convective precip is expected in the afternoon. The highest likelihood of showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours each day during peak heating.
/issued 335 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): For today and tonight, a weak inverted 500 mb trough over northeast Mexico and extended into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will gradually retrograde west deeper into Mexico while 500 mb high pressure remains centered over El Paso in the Lone Star State. The mid-level high will then resume dominance on Thursday with the trough farther west and much diminished. Overall, a continuation of the hot and dry weather will be the rule during the 36-hour forecast period despite the inverted trough.
/issued 440 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ Low to mid level flow will continue to be dominated by the sub- tropical ridge extending wwd from the Atlantic across the northern Gulf, maintaining a moist onshore flow.
/issued 320 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ We continue to be under the control of a strong elongated high pressure system which extends from Texas to California.
847 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Southwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley will bring increasing moisture until a cold front crosses Thursday night.
An elongated high pressure continues to build over the southern conus, with center of circulation oriented over southern New Mexico. This high will continue to strengthen and build north driving rising heights across the eastern Great Basin through the end of the week.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad westerly flow aloft across the offshore waters of the NE Pacific extending inland over the Pacific Northwest with a mid/upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska west of Queen Charlotte Island. I decreased today's maximum temperatures in central Oregon, The Dalles and Goldendale by a few degrees and increased cloud cover to partly cloudy in the Lower Columbia Basin. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, except in the lower 60s to mid 70s in the mountains with highs in the Wallowa Mountains on;y in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
633 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 Low clouds have spread into the lower James River Valley, so have updated cloud cover grids to reflect this. Current surface analysis places low over southeast Manitoba with ridge over the northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest. unsettled pattern remains over the area with broad cyclonic flow aloft in the wake of the departing upper low.
The upper level low over southeastern Manitoba will drift ENE and open up over Ontario today. Trough axis will rotate through the area today. areas of showers will linger into the overnight as a weak impulse moves SE across the area on the backside of the trough.
Surface wise, a broad ridge extends across the northern half of the sunshine state and into the Southeast United States. Given ample moisture in place, little in the way of convective inhibition combined with winds backing to northeast to east will likely result in deep cloud line genesis at least near the Lower Keys during the mid to late afternoon. Enough strong mid July insolation will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 90s.
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Low level ridge axis draped across central FL produced calm winds across much of the FA early this morning under mostly clear skies. Winds light and variable this morning due to close proximity of low level ridge axis, then E-SE 10-12kt behind inland moving sea breeze. High pressure ridge axis across central FL and adjacent waters this morning producing light SE-S flow with seas 2 ft or less.
/issued 333 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging over Texas will keep the forecast area hot and dry.
Convection is possible over the higher terrain once again today, however, an area of isentropic lift lifting off to the northeast through the day will bring the chance for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms across the remainder of the area. Despite heights aloft building slightly today, temperatures will be near or a couple degrees cooler than yesterday with a bit more cloud cover expected. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday, generally highest across eastern portion of the area with lower pops west as high pressure builds over Idaho and western Montana. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday. Temperatures will start out seasonable in the extended as low level moisture is pulled northwards into the high plains.
The 12z TFX sounding shows a decent amount of moisture in the low levels and, with convective temps in the mid to upper 60s across central Montana, it won't take much daytime heating to get showers and storms to redevelop late this morning and into this afternoon.
1035 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
Dry air remains in the low and mid-levels contributing to a sizable DCAPE value of about 1150 J/kg. Freezing level is about 300 feet higher than 24 hours ago so hail concern is very limited. The upper low responsible for the slightly cooler temps aloft and hence the conditions leading to better chances of sh/ts, is currently located between Natchez and McComb, Miss.
Highs will range from the lower to middle 90s near the East coast, to the middle to upper 90s further inland.
The overall broader trough across Canada will direct a stream of moisture through Northeast Montana today for continued scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Zonal flow across the northern Pacific and weak low sliding south across British Columbia will combine with upper trof pushing across the Great Lakes to keep northwest flow across the Treasure State. Weak ridging ahead of the west Canadian trof will begin to pull some warmer air northward.
A thermal trough will bring increasing north winds and steepening seas through Thursday.
Lingering bkn/ovc cloud cover slowed the temp trend down this morning leaving current temps in the low/mid 80s. Cloud cover is slowly dissipating and combined with southerly flow, temps will reach the lower 90s by this afternoon.
1049 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front slowly lifts across the area through tonight.
Latest operational HRRR seems the closest and zips this line of storms into western Illinois by 4 pm, while the new NAM rapidly fizzles it and focuses more on the incoming cold front, with storms (which are already over northwest Iowa) arriving from the northwest late afternoon.
This would be cause for concern, but models show this cooler mid-level air sagging southeast following the flow at that level.
At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will prevail while a weak piedmont trough resides inland. Meanwhile aloft, the forecast area will sit under broad ridging. Warm and humid conditions will persist with lows ranging from the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s at the coast. Broad deep layered ridging over the forecast area will generally persist during this period but subtle day to day changes will allow for gradually decreasing mid level subsidence and increasing pwats.
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The short term period will feature quiet weather and warm temperatures as high pressure takes hold of the region. High pressure shifts off to the northeast, allowing for shower chances to return by Wednesday afternoon. These showers will likely be contained to the higher terrain along the VA/KY border. Morning lows will feature ridge valley splits with valleys potentially dipping into the uppers 50s while ridges stay in the 60s. For the longwave pattern, the models all have southeast ridging weakening in the face of a broad trough sliding east through Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley for the weekend.
High pressure building in over Nevada will result in mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures through the weekend. High pressure currently centered along the California coast will lead to warm and dry conditions across Nevada today. May see periods of cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest at times today and tonight as high level moisture rotates around the ridge. though some lower elevation areas such as Winnemucca should reach into the low 90s. On Wednesday the high pressure from California will drift eastward across Nevada. Models are showing a little instability Wednesday afternoon across Northeastern Nevada due to a weak and dry cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Today and tonight will be quiet as weak high pressure controls our weather.
343 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front will move into the region today.
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region today.
604 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than what we saw yesterday with the increase in cloud cover, but forecast soundings indicate that if we experience any significant breaks in the clouds today, the temperature will have little problem getting into at least the mid 80s. Considering current situation is not necessarily handled well, this evening will be influenced by mesoscale features, but have left pops highest in the west with the approach of the sfc trof. A few degrees cooler behind the boundary, but not by much and not for long. The upper trof and surface feature dragging through the region alerting a pattern shift and models will likely remain split between filling in with precip across ILX.
255 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will lead to summer conditions with afternoon highs in the 80s for the Sierra and 90s across western Nevada this week. High pressure will build strongly into the region today through Wednesday with temperatures pushing well above normal.
Temperatures within dry slot should range not too far from average with much cooler values over the far north and east. Upper low will begin to drift east across the northern fa tonight. Rain associated with the low will gradually end from west to east during the day. With much cooler column overhead temperatures will range 10 to 15 degrees below average. Ridge of high pressure builds in behind departing low.
Upper level ridge building into the Pacific northwest. Expect highs Tuesday about 4-8 degrees warmer than today under mostly sunny skies. A weak short wave moves across the ridge Wednesday.
1109 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 Passing trough to the north and closed low in Arizona will become out of phase this evening as the closed low drops to the south and the northern trough gets pushed to the southeast by an upper level jet diving southeast across Wyoming. Expecting a downturn in activity on Tuesday though a few showers and thunderstorms will still develop over the higher terrain. Some residual moisture and energy with the exiting southern trough will keep some convective activity over the southern San Juans on Wednesday.
A warming trend is forecast through late week as high pressure builds along the California coast. Inland temperatures will warm into the 80s to 90s by mid to late week while coastal locations remain cooler.
1153 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 Scattered light showers will linger overnight behind the main line of thunderstorms as several weak impulses rotate southeast around the main upper low over the northern Plains and interact with limited elevated CAPE. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly flow resulting in highs around 70. Upper low will lift northeastward, out of North Dakota and into southern Manitoba on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to the low 70s. In addition a weak warm front seen across Southern Arkansas and Central Mississippi will lift back to the north. High temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday.
Main line of thunderstorms is pushing into MN/IA along the cold front. As lows become stacked over ND today, a tight pressure gradient will develop, and a secondary cold front will cross the region. That area will also remain much cooler today - in the upper 50s - while south central SD will be near 70. Some areas of the Black Hills may reach the freezing mark. Weak ridging/nearly zonal flow will develop across the western CONUS behind the low. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Northern Plains. Wednesday will be mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 70s, and some breezy winds over the SD plains.
411 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front moves across the area this morning and then washes out just to the south.
Surface wise, our region lies between a western atlantic ridge to the north with another weak area of high pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico.