Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The air temps are in the lower 70s for most of the four state area in the I-30 corridor with mid to upper 70s along and south of I-20. Overnight the gusts will subside by sunset for the most part and sfc winds will continue to slack overnight as high pressure settles into the heart of TX and down out over the coastal bend during tomorrow. Highs again tomorrow with the cooler start should be confined to the 70s once again, where as 80 is what late April has for an average. After a nice day, lows tomorrow night with fair skies and light winds or even calm will see slightly warmer temps as our air mass modifies.
344 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 This afternoon the upper trough was moving into Indiana and a ridge was building over the Rockies resulting in northwest flow aloft across the central Plains. Expect winds to remain gusty into the late afternoon and early evening before diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west overnight. Tonight with clear skies temperatures should cool into the lower to mid 40s. Thursday, the mid level ridge moves into the central Plains and with winds increasing from the south through the day, especially across western into parts of central Kansas where highs will approach the upper 70s in north central Kansas.
On the leeward side of the building upper ridge to the west, breaks in the cumulus field have continued and surface winds have increased, with gusts exceeding 35 mph at numerous locations. The remainder of the week is marked by the building ridge over the central U.
1149 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 It looks like the mountains will be a little warmer today. a couple degrees cooler in the sheltered valleys, a little warmer in areas which will benefit from drainage winds. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s over most of the plains, 60s in the foothills and high mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s in the mountains. Areas in/near the foothills will be warmer, however, with light downslope flow ahead of tomorrow's summerlike heat.
Under an upperlevel ridge, temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s with sunny skies. 86 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast Begins with hot high pressure over the Southwest with a ridge running north through IDaho, western Montana, and cresting in the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces. Farther west a large trough is developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Today through Tonight: Ridge will dominate generating clear to partly cloudy skies during the day and then mostly cloudy from a chinook arch overnight.
Previous adjustments to tonight's lows look good as there will be gentle downslope southwest winds over the plains keeping some areas a bit warmer.
97 An upper level ridge covering the entire western United States is bringing plenty of sunny skies, dry weather, and temperatures in the upper 70s and to lower 80s today and tomorrow.
929 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 After several rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, a cold front has now pushed east of the area and have given way to mostly dry conditions and a temporary break in the clouds. Current satellite shows a mid stratus deck pushing south and slowly east on the backside of the cold front. The low pressure system with the aformentioned cold front ejects northeast with some wrap around precip possible in far northeast Alabama, otherwise most areas stay dry. Upper level trough in place on Thursday with northwest flow into the area will hold temperatures in the mid 60s.
and indications of a brief downslope enhancement on the immediate van of the warm front developing northward this eve. The line will make a slow progression eastward given expectations of a negatively tilting upper trough, but widespread, problematic flooding is unlikely given the aforementioned convective potential and the ongoing green-up of vegetation. The pre-frontal trough and the deeper moisture will move east of the region by late Thursday morning.
This afternoon the upper trough was moving into Indiana and a ridge was building over the Rockies resulting in northwest flow aloft across the central Plains. Expect winds to remain gusty into the late afternoon and early evening before diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west overnight. Tonight with clear skies temperatures should cool into the lower to mid 40s. Thursday, the mid level ridge moves into the central Plains and with winds increasing from the south through the day, especially across western into parts of central Kansas where highs will approach the upper 70s in north central Kansas.
/issued 212 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ An upper ridge is centered over the southwestern U. with an upper trough centered over the Midwest. A cold front has moved into the area with gusty northeast winds. Temperatures are much cooler today with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.
/Issued 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ The backside of an upper level low currently centered over the Midwest/Ohio River valley continued to make its way through Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30mph transporting cooler and drier air were observed with temps in the 60s to low 70s over the CWA.
909 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Dry conditions will continue across the Northland through Thursday night, thanks to an area of high pressure that will pass through the region.
Tonight and Thursday: After a large line of rain and storms moved through early this morning, the parent cold front is finally moving across the area. Showers will exit the forecast area by sunset with dry conditions into Thursday as ridging builds in across the Plains states. Daytime highs will be slightly below normal Thursday as we remain on the back end of the upper trough passing across the region. /DL/ Dry conditions will continue Thursday night through the weekend as high pressure remains in control across the region.
Daily heat records are possible again on Thursday, with highs from the low eighties in the mountains to near one hundred degrees in the lower valleys. High pressure in place across Arizona has led to a round of above normal temperatures today.
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Temperatures were almost 20-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday as substantial cloud cover, showers and gusty northwest winds were occuring across the area as low pressure was pushing off to the northeast across the Great Lakes.
927 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 For this update, introduced a slight chance for some showers across the far northwest for a couple of hours tomorrow afternoon given the latest iterations of the high resolution guidance. We will see increasing high clouds begin to spill over the upper ridge with southerly return flow developing tonight.
Surface analysis this evening places an area of low pressure near Grand Rapids, MI with a cold front trailing back through Middle Tennessee, North Alabama, and Central Mississippi. /issued 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ Current surface analysis shows a cold front finally moving out of the area with gusty winds behind it. Lows tonight will generally be in the low 50s. High pressure will move into the area tomorrow and dry weather should persist through the end of the weekend. High temperatures will remain in the lower 70s through tomorrow then have a warming trend through the weekend.
527 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Next arriving upstream trough will be forcing the ridge eastward leading to a hot and breezy forecast.
950 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Wx map shows high pressure settling over TX this evening, with the pressure gradient slowly relaxing over our region.
Winds and cloud cover will continue to decrease this evening as high pressure builds into the area.
235 PM PDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Warmer weather will continue this week, though our high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler each day. The short wave trough that brought us cloud cover will continue to pass over the Pac NW today. Thursday will see more airmass cooling, but more sunshine should keep temperatures about the same as today or slightly warmer for regions affected by the Delta Breeze.
320 PM PDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A disorganized cold front will be moving through the forecast area this afternoon through Thursday.
Areas to the west of the James River could be a bit on the breezy side, with the high pressure sliding to the east as the next disturbance moves in and better mixing potential exists in this area during the afternoon.
/issued 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ Current surface analysis shows a cold front finally moving out of the area with gusty winds behind it. Lows tonight will generally be in the low 50s. High pressure will move into the area tomorrow and dry weather should persist through the end of the weekend. High temperatures will remain in the lower 70s through tomorrow then have a warming trend through the weekend.
/issued 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ Dry air continues to invade the region under the influence of northwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level ridge. Cooler theta-e advection has given way to pleasant temperatures across the region this afternoon, with highs expected to peak into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the CWA. Temperatures have therefore been adjusted a few degrees cooler than what the statistical and numerical guidance has provided, and lows in the middle to upper 40s are in store for tonight area-wide. A strong ridge will build into the southern and central Great Plains by tomorrow, with highs soaring back into the upper 80s and lower 90s for Thursday (the beginning of the weekend scorch!).
Deteriorating marine conditions as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching line of fast- moving showers/storms (40-50kts) ahead of a cold front that will move across the waters late in the day on Thu.
The forecast is in good shape as clouds and patchy light rain dump southward into the Ohio Valley in association with a nearly stationary upper low just east of Chicago. All of this cold air comes from a stacked low-pressure system centered over Illinois this hour.
However, some additional isolated shower activity will continue as moisture wraps around the upper level low to our north. Gusty south winds are becoming westerly as a cold front pushes east of the terminals.
Occluded low pressure situated over lower MI has been spreading low stratus and showers across much of the cwa this afternoon. Lows will be in the lower 40s at most locations. Thursday: Clouds may linger in our far eastern counties for a time but for most of the cwa skies should be sunny, as high pressure ridge pushes into eastern IA late in the day. This will push afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 60s with the help of late April sunshine.
402 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Latest surface analysis showed a 996mb over Lower Michigan with the cold front extending northern Mississippi to southwest Louisiana and pre-frontal trough axis from northern Alabama to Mississippi coastal waters. Upper level analysis showed a trough axis rotating through mid and lower Mississippi valley this evening.
The broad ridge of high pressure responsible for the fair weather yesterday and today will push eastward tonight. On its heels is a trough of low pressure that makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest tonight, bringing the chances for thunderstorm development through Thursday night.
622 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A strong upper level low pressure system over east central Illinois will will bring periods of showers to central and southeast Illinois through this evening, and linger over eastern Illinois overnight into Thursday. Lows tonight will in the low to mid 40s, and highs Thursday in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with mid 60s over the Mississippi River valley where more sunshine will occur. Another cool night Thursday night with lows in the lower 40s.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Thursday: After a large line of rain and storms moved through early this morning, the parent cold front is finally moving across the area. Showers will exit the forecast area by sunset with dry conditions into Thursday as ridging builds in across the Plains states. Daytime highs will be slightly below normal Thursday as we remain on the back end of the upper trough passing across the region. /DL/ Dry conditions will continue Thursday night through the weekend as high pressure remains in control across the region.
645 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Deep closed low across the western Great Lakes responsible for the cool, cloudy day today along with lingering light rain will slowly drift eastward tonight. Highs on Thursday will be seasonably cool in the 60s, but given the sunshine will feel quite a bit warmer than today. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling is expected to yield another chilly night, with forecast low temperatures ranging from the low to mid 40s.
309 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 An upper level ridge covering the entire western United States is bringing plenty of sunny skies, dry weather, and temperatures in the upper 70s and to lower 80s today and tomorrow.
Broad high pressure has built in over the western/central Plains in the wake of a cold front which has now pushed off of the western Gulf Coast. /Issued 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ The backside of an upper level low currently centered over the Midwest/Ohio River valley continued to make its way through Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30mph transporting cooler and drier air were observed with temps in the 60s to low 70s over the CWA.
842 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Ridging is in place over the four corners region with moisture spilling over into Colorado.
A disorganized cold front will be moving through the forecast area this afternoon through Thursday.
A mid level ridge builds over our area along with the accompanying warmer temperatures. Mixing of these warm temperatures to the surface due to heating along with the thermal ridge easing back over our area will continue the above normal high temperatures.
Ridging will continue to build over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas Friday, with widespread highs in the middle 90s and lower 100s expected. The ridge will flatten over the weekend, with zonal flow aloft and continued downslope warming yielding continued summer-like temperatures in the 90s and 100s across the area.
The last remnants of cloud cover associated with the upper low over the Great Lakes Area will exit Arkansas later today, as high pressure settles in on northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will moderate on Friday, as the high shifts eastward and southwest/southerly winds set up again.
349 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Light showers and abundant cloud cover will linger through today and Friday as a slow-moving low pressure system crosses the region.
Upper ridging currently over the Rockies will move out into the Plains today, leaving quiet conditions with only some cirrus clouds at times. Dew points will remain pretty low over western MN, with some afternoon relative humidity values in the low to mid 20s possible. There is some low CAPE values indicated by some models in the warm sector of the trough, so some thunder will be possible although at this point think instability will be well under 1000 J/kg so think severe threat is low.
Cold front continues its eastern trek across the area tonight with the bulk of rain shifting east during the next few hours. As the upper low amplifies across the region on Thursday, low clouds will remain with scattered convection during the afternoon bringing likely PoPs to portions of the higher elevations and NE TN/SW VA. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 48 71 49 79 / 30 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 47 66 47 75 / 50 50 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 46 66 46 76 / 50 50 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 44 58 44 71 / 60 70 60 10 0.
250 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Upper ridging across the central to northern Rockies has shifted eastward into the northern Great Plains. A weak trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest, with a secondary trough crossing the northern Rockies. Low level thermal ridge near the upper ridge axis is pushing into the CWA at this time. Temps are expected to reach the 80s across many locations, but upper level clouds moving in from the west could end up keeping temps a few degrees cooler than forecast. Temperatures on Friday will be cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Light precipitation will linger into the night before high pressure finally pushes the moisture east of the region tomorrow.
308 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 An upper level low was present over the Great Lakes region with upper ridging over the western CONUS early this morning. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western Nebraska and Kansas, keeping skies clear and weakening the winds across the CWA. With the ridge moving into the Plains through the day today, skies should remain mostly clear allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 70s. Southerly winds continue overnight tonight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s. The pressure gradient tightens across the area Friday morning as two areas of low pressure develop on the lee of the Rockies.
(Today and tonight) Today will feature relatively tranquil weather as upper ridging begins to build into the area. Warming mid level temperatures will lead to highs about 5 to 10 degrees warmer today compared to yesterday.
Southward from the low on satellite is a plume of post frontal moisture extending as far southward as N AL/MS. In the upper levels, we have an upper low and trough across much of E Conus. Although no additional precipitation is anticipated today, lingering cloud cover is expected to continue into this afternoon until the low pressure system pushes eastward later this evening. Winds will be lower than yesterday but still gusty until pressure gradients relax later this evening as ridging takes hold across the Gulf Coast. Pleasant weather is expected for Friday after a cool start with ridging still in control.
The cold front has moved off the coast and high pressure is building in behind. An upper ridge will build over the Four Corners region bringing northwesterly flow over Texas during this period. Winds will lighten with a loose pressure gradient and the center of the high moves across the wind direction will vary.
A mid level ridge will continue to build in overhead during the TAF period leading to VFR conditions and CLR skies. The highest winds will be across the NW AR TAF sites during the afternoon hours. Broad high pressure has built in over the western/central Plains in the wake of a cold front which has now pushed off of the western Gulf Coast. /Issued 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ The backside of an upper level low currently centered over the Midwest/Ohio River valley continued to make its way through Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30mph transporting cooler and drier air were observed with temps in the 60s to low 70s over the CWA.
Breezy southerly winds and notably warmer temps return Friday with above normal temperatures likely prevailing through the weekend.
1122 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Temperatures were almost 20-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday as substantial cloud cover, showers and gusty northwest winds were occuring across the area as low pressure was pushing off to the northeast across the Great Lakes.
A large, slow moving, low pressure system is expected to gradually shift off to the east by tonight. A deep upper low is currently located over northern Indiana, with areas of rain over the local area in association with the low. Short term models suggest this low will gradually drift off to the east this afternoon. Will keep PoPs rather high this morning, especially over the northeastern zones closest to upper low, and then taper them off into the chance category this afternoon as the low pulls off to the east.
South winds tonight will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range in the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Crockett county, as a lee trough and 35 to 40 KT 850 MB low level jet develops.
347 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 It will be mostly sunny and warm today thanks to an area of high pressure. Highs will be in the sixties for most areas with it cooler close to Lake Superior due to light off lake winds. Dry conditions will continue into tonight and far northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin will cool into the lower to middle thirties.
Clear and quiet weather overnight into Thursday morning as an upper ridge builds and moves over the region. The upper ridge axis will slip east over the plains by Thursday afternoon with some increase in moisture and a weak impulse possibly setting off a few showers or weak storms out west Thursday afternoon, with a few straying over the plains into Thursday evening. Activity likely to continue Friday evening as another push of cooler air pushes across the CWA adding support.
However, some additional isolated shower activity will continue as moisture wraps around the upper level low to our north.
Cold front will enter our western areas this evening and push through the Big Bend before dawn. In the wake of the upper low departing, dry northwest flow will be in place. Lows each night will bottom in in the low to mid 50s.
some high clouds are expected to spill over a longwave ridge axis approaching the area. upper ridge axis moves into far eastern Colorado with some degree/thickness of cirrus over the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 80s, warmest along and west of the CO/KS border. warmest day of the week under broad upper ridging.
This afternoon the upper trough was moving into Indiana and a ridge was building over the Rockies resulting in northwest flow aloft across the central Plains. Expect winds to remain gusty into the late afternoon and early evening before diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west overnight. Tonight with clear skies temperatures should cool into the lower to mid 40s. Thursday, the mid level ridge moves into the central Plains and with winds increasing from the south through the day, especially across western into parts of central Kansas where highs will approach the upper 70s in north central Kansas. Friday a broad ridge will be in place over the Plains with the thermal axis extending from west Texas into northeast Kansas.
and troughing southward. Mid level ridging begins to build across the plains states from Mexico Fri. A cold front preceded by a squall line accompanies the troughiness and swings into the area before daybreak. Drier and somewhat cooler air. From Sat through Wed: The plains mid level ridging slides into the southeast quarter of the nation then flattens midweek as a low tracks from the northern plains to the Great Lakes. The lower level flow gradually turns from northerly to easterly then to southwest and west. This allows warmer air. Squall line ahead of a cold front now pushing across TPA/PIE with gusty winds and MVFR/LCL IFR conditions. High pressure builds in Fri then tracks east with winds diminishing and gradually veering. Cooler and drier air moves in Fri and continues into Sat with locally critical minimum humidities.
319 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 A few rain showers will linger over east central Illinois today as low pressure moves slowly eastward away from the area, while clearing skies gradually extend eastward into central Illinois.
Mesoanalysis shows a vort max rounding the base of H500 troughing which remains positioned over the area. Lingering showers will diminish upper troughing shifts away and moisture wanes. The surface pressure gradient will remain fairly tight tomorrow but will relax as ridging builds in from the west with winds subsiding as a result.
Starting off this morning with high pressure over much of the Plains States, with the ridge extending up through our forecast area. This ridge will shift east into far southeastern SD and MN by 15Z. RH values will fall 20 to 35 percent across the entire cwa, and below 25 percent west of the Missouri River where winds will be the highest this afternoon.