Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Monday Night) Warm front continues to surge northward across the region this afternoon, currently oriented near and along the I-30 corridor. This is allowing for rapid moisture recovery as dew points range from the mid and upper 60s to lower 70s south of the warm front. Overnight lows will only drop back into the 60s areawide with very light southerly winds prevailing in wake of the warm front. The threat of additional convection will persist through Monday as the frontal boundary gets nudged back southward by a reinforcing cold front shifting out of the Plains. By Monday night, the presence of an upper-level ridge will begin to become more influential with convection ending and overnight lows dropping back into the upper 50s to lower and mid 60s.
221 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Midlevel clouds were found across parts of the area early this afternoon as a secondary cold front pushed through the area. While flow aloft is from the SW, an occluding upper low north of the area will help to bring cooler and drier air into the area the rest of today and into tomorrow. Quiet and cooler tomorrow. Discussion: Low-level flow will continue to be from a northerly position as high pressure builds into the area from the NW. Model certainty tool shows that BC models are bringing a crude average warmer whereas raw models are lower. Loaded with NBM that was slightly cooler, but may need to go lower. Highs will barely reach 50 in the northern CWA and into the low to mid 50s elsewhere.
1131 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 (Today and tonight) Wind shift/weak cold front will progress slowly southward over the region today and stall across southeast Oklahoma tonight.
343 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area tonight. High pressure will build into the region behind the frontal passage Monday into mid-week. Low pressure will move into the region to end the week. A cold front moves southeast across the region tonight, though precipitation will not accompany this front due to very dry antecedent conditions. High pressure builds in behind this front Monday and Monday night, with a cool and very dry airmass leading to highs in the mid to upper 50s and mostly sunny/clear skies Monday and Monday night. Quiet weather is expected through the near term period as high pressure influences the pattern across the region.
639 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 Dry conditions are expected overnight in the wake of cold front as high pressure noses into the area. A cooler pattern is expected by the start of the workweek before a brief warmup evolves by midweek. Lows tonight to range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. Mainly clear skies with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south of the Ohio River.
256 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 AFTERNOON UPDATE: The High Wind Warning was allowed to expire at 11am and decided to extend the Lake Wind Advisory through Monday afternoon.
The next low pressure is already moving into portions of the inter-mountains west. Overnight a 50+ kt midlevel jet will develop across the area and bring windy conditions to the higher elevations with gusts greater than 40 mph possible. Tomorrow the low pressure will pretty much be in the same place so gusty southwest flow will continue. Boundary layer mixing in the afternoon will allow strong gusts to reach the lower valleys especially across the western half of the area.
528 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 (This evening through Monday) Zonal flow aloft will back to the southwest tonight and through the day Monday as the next upper level trough amplifies over the west coast. Low level moisture will further increase during the day on Monday as surface winds veer to the southeast in response to the aforementioned upper trough near the west coast.
Midlevel clouds were found across parts of the area early this afternoon as a secondary cold front pushed through the area. While flow aloft is from the SW, an occluding upper low north of the area will help to bring cooler and drier air into the area the rest of today and into tomorrow. Quiet and cooler tomorrow. Discussion: Low-level flow will continue to be from a northerly position as high pressure builds into the area from the NW. Model certainty tool shows that BC models are bringing a crude average warmer whereas raw models are lower. Loaded with NBM that was slightly cooler, but may need to go lower. Highs will barely reach 50 in the northern CWA and into the low to mid 50s elsewhere.
649 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area tonight. High pressure will build into the region behind the frontal passage Monday into mid-week. Low pressure will move into the region to end the week. A cold front moves southeast across the region tonight, though precipitation will not accompany this front due to very dry antecedent conditions. High pressure builds in behind this front Monday and Monday night, with a cool and very dry airmass leading to highs in the mid to upper 50s and mostly sunny/clear skies Monday and Monday night. Quiet weather is expected through the near term period as high pressure influences the pattern across the region.
20z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front approaching the Illinois River. High pressure will track across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Monday, providing a cool/dry northeasterly flow.
Temperatures at 3 pm in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa ranged from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
938 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 Dry conditions are expected overnight in the wake of cold front as high pressure noses into the area. A cooler pattern is expected by the start of the workweek before a brief warmup evolves by midweek. Reinforcing cold front over northwest Indiana will push southeast through the Ohio Valley and weaken overnight. Aside from a few cirrus, overnight will be mainly clear with low temperatures ranging from the lower 40s across west-central Ohio to the upper 40s over much of northern Kentucky. Mainly clear skies with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south of the Ohio River.
(This afternoon through Monday) High pressure ridge axis at the surface and in the mid levels remain across portions of north and central GA. The ridge at the surface will strengthen as a strong/sprawling high pressure system builds from the north. The boundary should dissipate sometime later tonight or early Monday as the high builds in.
The rest of the evening and into the overnight hours are expected to remain more quite with lows ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Stacked high pressure remains over the Eastern Seaboard down through FL and into the S Gulf keeping easterly low level flow in place with warm and humid conditions along with scattered fast moving light rain showers this afternoon clearing tonight.
823 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 The forecast will be updated to add some PoPs in SW VA for the next couple hours to account for the light showers that will move across that area ahead of a cold front. Tonight looks quiet as the region remains on the southern periphery of low amplitude troughing. High pressure will descend from the northern plains likely pushing the weak front through the area. Heights increase on Monday as a mid-upper level anticyclone pushes north into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. High pressure at the surface and deep layer subsidence will keep dry and warm conditions across the area. Much colder temps expected this weekend behind a cold front.
A weak cold front is currently exiting the CWA to the southeast, shifting winds to the northwest as it passes.
Southerly surface pressure gradients have begun to tighten this afternoon as the next cold front approaches.
622 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 Dry conditions with high pressure are expected through mid-week.
940 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area tonight. High pressure will build into the region behind the frontal passage Monday into mid-week. Low pressure will move into the region to end the week. A cold front moves southeast across the region tonight, though precipitation will not accompany this front due to very dry antecedent conditions. High pressure builds in behind this front Monday and Monday night, with a cool and very dry airmass leading to highs in the mid to upper 50s and mostly sunny/clear skies Monday and Monday night. Quiet weather is expected through the near term period as high pressure influences the pattern across the region.
458 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Warm front continues to surge northward across the region this afternoon, currently oriented near and along the I-30 corridor. This is allowing for rapid moisture recovery as dew points range from the mid and upper 60s to lower 70s south of the warm front. Overnight lows will only drop back into the 60s areawide with very light southerly winds prevailing in wake of the warm front. The threat of additional convection will persist through Monday as the frontal boundary gets nudged back southward by a reinforcing cold front shifting out of the Plains. By Monday night, the presence of an upper-level ridge will begin to become more influential with convection ending and overnight lows dropping back into the upper 50s to lower and mid 60s.
358 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 The H5 trough begins to deepen along the West Coast during the next 24 hours, shifting local flow more from the southwest. Have issued Winter Storm Warnings for the higher elevations of the Winds, along with the Tetons, Gros Ventres, and Yellowstone NP, for snowfall accumulations through the next several days. Temperatures at lower elevations of Jackson Hole and Star Valley look to be far enough above freezing on Monday to bring a mix of snow and rain, holding down any snowfall accumulations there through the short term.
(The rest of tonight) Cooler and drier northerly flow has become established behind a frontal boundary across much of the area.
On Tuesday, strong high pressure situated to our northeast will help scour out the cloud cover and as it does so, upper ridging will take over across the region, allowing for temperatures to continue to climb into the 70s through the middle of the week.
At the present time, low clouds and fog have developed over north MS and parts of western and middle TN, but the higher ceilings may keep fog from being a widespread issue for our area. For the rest of today, not much change in previous thinking with a ridge building at 8h and 5h over the TN valleys.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Cooler temperatures are in store today as a back-door cold front is currently sagging south across the region. This should keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday across these areas. Continued moisture advection tonight keeps temperatures from cooling much at all across the lower elevations. Strong southerly winds develop tomorrow and help push temperatures several degrees warmer, but skies remain cloudy with rich moisture remaining in place.
Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures are expected with 70s tonight and tomorrow night and daytime highs surging back into the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday afternoon. Coupled with abundant low-level moisture and fairly unidirectional flow in the lower levels, and a few streamer showers cannot be ruled out, especially later tonight/early Monday morning. Lows tonight will only drop into the lower to middle 70s as humidity values remain high. Passing clouds won't keep temperatures from once again climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday afternoon as a 588+ dm H5 ridge builds overhead. Another surge of moisture means a few more showers will be possible again Monday night with temperatures settling in the lower to middle 70s.
These SHRA are in vicinity of a warm frontal boundary. Looks like best POPs will be along and just south of this warm front late tonight into early Mon before upper level high pressure begins to build across the region. As this high builds. NRLY/NERLY SFC flow will return as this warm front moves back south as a weak cold front. with dry condtions expected Mon night and especially Tue as the upper ridge strengthens.
TFJ AFTERNOON UPDATE: The High Wind Warning was allowed to expire at 11am and decided to extend the Lake Wind Advisory through Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile a warm front will move northward from the Red River area on Monday into Kansas for Tuesday. Returning Gulf of Mexico moisture will over-run the warm front which looks to generate scattered showers and a few embedded storms late Monday night into Tuesday.
1231 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 The forecast will be updated to add some PoPs in SW VA for the next couple hours to account for the light showers that will move across that area ahead of a cold front. Tonight looks quiet as the region remains on the southern periphery of low amplitude troughing. High pressure will descend from the northern plains likely pushing the weak front through the area. Heights increase on Monday as a mid-upper level anticyclone pushes north into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. High pressure at the surface and deep layer subsidence will keep dry and warm conditions across the area.
A warm front is currently across northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. South of the warm front, a few showers are moving northeast across sections of northeast Mississippi.
Gusty north to northeast winds up to 20-30 mph will turn more easterly overnight with the aforementioned high pressure's movement eastward diminishing with radiational cooling to less than 10-15mph.
148 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through much of the work week with high pressure in place.
Mean layer ridging stretches northeast from Mexico across the northern Gulf Coast, with a relic cell running out of real estate northeast of Bermuda. A pattern shift is underway, with the mean layer ridging squirting to the west underneath the cyclone clipping east through the Great Lakes. These squalls are ripping to the west-southwest, accelerated by the gradient between the ridge axis over the southern Appalachians and the encroaching cyclonic gyre to our east-southeast.
Southwest winds will increase Monday and become strong and gusty on Tuesday as a trough approaches the area from the West.
103 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 Dry conditions with high pressure are expected through mid-week.
1043 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cooler and drier northerly flow has become established behind a frontal boundary across much of the area.
1251 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 Dry conditions are expected overnight in the wake of cold front as high pressure noses into the area. A cooler pattern is expected by the start of the workweek before a brief warmup evolves by midweek. Reinforcing cold front over northwest Indiana will push southeast through the Ohio Valley and weaken overnight. Aside from a few cirrus, overnight will be mainly clear with low temperatures ranging from the lower 40s across west-central Ohio to the upper 40s over much of northern Kentucky. Mainly clear skies with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south of the Ohio River.
Midlevel clouds were found across parts of the area early this afternoon as a secondary cold front pushed through the area. While flow aloft is from the SW, an occluding upper low north of the area will help to bring cooler and drier air into the area the rest of today and into tomorrow.
Temperatures at 3 pm in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa ranged from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Tuesday should reach mostly in the lower and mid 60s.
As previous forecast discussion noted there is concern some pavement temps will be just above freezing when the precipitation starts then dip below freezing and allow the resulting liquid accumulation to freeze and cause slick spots.
1233 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area tonight. High pressure will build into the region behind the frontal passage Monday into mid-week. Low pressure will move into the region to end the week. A cold front moves southeast across the region tonight, though precipitation will not accompany this front due to very dry antecedent conditions. High pressure builds in behind this front Monday and Monday night, with a cool and very dry airmass leading to highs in the mid to upper 50s and mostly sunny/clear skies Monday and Monday night. Quiet weather is expected through the near term period as high pressure influences the pattern across the region.
High temperatures hovering in the upper 70s to low 80s across the lower deserts are expected through Tuesday.
(Today) A cold front has eased into far southeast Oklahoma early this morning. The low clouds and fog will likely stay south of the boundary this morning with a few showers possible along and north of the front.
RAH (Issued 344 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022) Tonight through Tuesday: A weak cold front will continue across srn WI this afternoon, while low pressure over sern Manitoba fills across southern Ontario tnt.
The next low pressure is already moving into portions of the Intermountain West. Overnight a 50+ kt midlevel jet will develop across the area and bring windy conditions to the higher elevations with gusts greater than 40 mph possible. Tomorrow the low pressure will pretty much be in the same place so gusty southwest flow will continue. Boundary layer mixing in the afternoon will allow strong gusts to reach the lower valleys especially across the western half of the area. On Tuesday, the large closed low over the western CONUS will begin to move onshore.
324 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 High pressure influences the region for the bulk of the work week.
1041 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 (This evening through Monday) Zonal flow aloft will back to the southwest tonight and through the day Monday as the next upper level trough amplifies over the west coast. Low level moisture will further increase during the day on Monday as surface winds veer to the southeast in response to the aforementioned upper trough near the west coast.
As moisture starts to get advected northward into cooler/drier post frontal airmass over most of Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas today, clouds and areas of fog and drizzle will spread from south to north over the region. Forecast temperatures today will stay on the cooler side of guidance with increasing cloud cover expected. Lows tonight will be warmer than those this morning for most areas as moisture returns and winds increase.
Highs will range from the lower to upper 70s today but clouds should prevent any records from being broken.
938 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 The H5 trough begins to deepen along the West Coast during the next 24 hours, shifting local flow more from the southwest. Have issued Winter Storm Warnings for the higher elevations of the Winds, along with the Tetons, Gros Ventres, and Yellowstone NP, for snowfall accumulations through the next several days. Temperatures at lower elevations of Jackson Hole and Star Valley look to be far enough above freezing on Monday to bring a mix of snow and rain, holding down any snowfall accumulations there through the short term. Mainly snow expected for the west Tuesday, with light snow or rain east, where temperatures will be warmer.
525 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Cooler temperatures are in store today as a back-door cold front is currently sagging south across the region. This should keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday across these areas. Continued moisture advection tonight keeps temperatures from cooling much at all across the lower elevations. Strong southerly winds develop tomorrow and help push temperatures several degrees warmer, but skies remain cloudy with rich moisture remaining in place.
Another abnormally warm day is in store as a warm, moist airmass remains in place south of the surface front situated just north of the area and amid persist ridging aloft.
Tuesday looks similar to today with partly cloudy skies and highs a few degrees warmer in the mid to upper 50s.
644 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through much of the week with high pressure in place.
Water vapor satellite loops early this morning also show moisture increasing in north-central Idaho and western Montana as a trough moves into the region. Time needed to moisten up the low levels was expected and the forecast remains on track. Snow is expected in the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys, but radar projections show the highest intensity snow occurring during the day so impacts should be brief.
Otherwise, expect enough sun by this afternoon to support another day of near record warmth as the subtropical ridge strengthens over the forecast area.
The short term period will find dry and somewhat mild conditions prevailing across central Indiana under broad and strengthening ridging. Meanwhile deep troughs at the H500 level will split. with a southern-Canada circulation sliding to Quebec while a western trough plunges down the Pacific coast. In between these features, H500 heights will rise across the eastern CONUS as ridging strengthens. Readings Tuesday will show a slight moderation as the building ridge aloft boosts H850 temperatures to 11-13 Celsius by afternoon.
Flow around the low off the PacNW Coast will also create deep southwesterly flow which will usher in much warmer temperatures to the CWA, running about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Not much difference on Tuesday aside from the low dropping to the California coast and finally moving eastward by the early evening hours.
523 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022 Cold and snowy weather expected over eastern Montana this week as upper low over the Pacific Northwest rotates through the Great Basin before lifting toward the upper MidWest. Jet streak rounding the western trof will push a low pressure system into Wyoming. By Tuesday the snow becomes focused over south central Montana with a stronger upslope component as inverted trof moves east and high pressure pushes south from Alberta. This high pressure will also bring another surge of cold air southward.
An upper low will bring cool showery weather today. High pressure will produce dry and cool weather for the rest of the week.
523 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 Large amplification will occur over the next few days with a deep trof/upper low digging along the West Coast and building of the downstream ridge centered over the Deep South. Cooler temperatures are in order today owing to low-level northeast-easterly flow and increasing high clouds. Flow within the boundary layer (PBL) will maintain an easterly component tonight and Tuesday due to the prominence of the surface/low-level ridge, however flow above the PBL (i. In addition to the high clouds and some mid clouds tonight, this flow will allow higher-based stratus to begin spreading into southeast and central MO later tonight and then into eastern MO and western IL on Tuesday. As a result the high temperature change from today to Tuesday will be small unless cloud cover is less than expected.
539 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 (Today) A cold front has eased into far southeast Oklahoma early this morning. The low clouds and fog will likely stay south of the boundary this morning with a few showers possible along and north of the front.
553 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 A weak cold front over the Susquehanna Valley at daybreak will slide to the east today. Seasonably cooler and drier weather will filter into the region today and remain with us for much of the work-week.
625 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 High pressure influences the region for the bulk of the work week.
527 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through much of the work week with high pressure in place.
Discussion: High pressure across the Midwest continues to move into the Ohio Valley this afternoon pushing the front to our south. As far as the synoptic pattern tonight and Tuesday, heights will be on the rise as an upper level anticyclone develops across the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a weak front stretched from the southern plains eastward across the southeast.