Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high wind warning expires at 6 PM, and that looks on track right now. Cooler temperatures will move into the region behind the front, as precipitation continues through the day on Saturday.
Lake shore communities continue to remain much cooler than inland areas and with higher relative humidity from the onshore flow. The primary concern has quickly shifted to fire weather as Upper Michigan sits under high pressure.
309 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Showers and earlier thunderstorms have surpassed our expectations today as an upper level low shifted out of the Midsouth over middle Tennessee.
136 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain and cooler temperature through Saturday evening with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Low pressure will continue to propagate through the OH Valley today, through Saturday. Waves of rain showers are likely on and off all day, through tonight in association with pivoting low pressure.
The back side of the upper ridge passes Saturday afternoon as the low-level thermal ridge begins to shift east and highs will rise to near 100 degrees across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas tomorrow. With the departure of the ridge, mid-level heights fall as our region comes under the influence of the broadening upper-trough centered over the northwest CONUS. A dryline takes shape over far southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas and the low RH coupled with hot temperatures and dry vegetation will yield an elevated fire weather risk Saturday afternoon in those areas.
The one exception would be Gladwin/Arenac counties hanging on to some of the high clouds. An expansive omega blocking upper level ridge stretching from the Gulf Coast all the way into northeastern Canada builds/expands/strengthens through the period. The ridge axis is centered smack dab across the Great Lakes which will lead to precipitation free conditions.
1125 AM MDT Fri May 6 2022 07z surface analysis had developing warm front from eastern MT into central CO. Low level warm air advection will promote highs in the 70s on the plains, 60s over the higher Black Hills. It will push a cold front through the CWA, moving into central SD during peak heating. Moisture return still a question, but most ensemble guidance suggests 1KJ/kg MLCAPE, modest MLCIN, and 50kt 0-6km bulk shear in a narrow band just ahead of the cold front. Period of gusty winds expected ahead (southwest) and behind (west/northwest) the cold front.
Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for the southern storms, and even with their intensity, storm motion appears to limit any rotational concerns in the low-level shear environment.
Today and Saturday: Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a deck of lapse rate- driven clouds in the low levels with a few cirrus plumes wafting across the area as well. During the evening and overnight hours, CAMs continue to focus a cluster of storms along a cold front draped across west-central Nebraska.
lumbering area of low pressure over the Upper Ohio valley will slowly pass to our south tonight before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Northwesterly winds along with dry northwesterly flow aloft has settled over the region in wake of the recent upper trough and cold front passage. But, with the warm front returning, the humidity and warmer conditions will return to portions of the region. The warm front will pull up stationary across the region Saturday night, with the gradient in temps and humidity remaining.
At this time KCDS would have the highest probability of seeing these low clouds if they develop. /issued 304 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ Upper level low pressure analyzed over OK/AR early this morning will continue to pull eastward today as broad upper ridging begins to build over the Desert Southwest. Short wave ridging will begin to move east of the area on Saturday with deeper upper level troughing forming over the western CONUS.
Water vapor imagery at 19Z shows our departing upper trough continuing into the Ohio River Valley and a weaker trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, leaving a low-amplitude ridge to develop over the southwest CONUS. In the meantime, clouds have been slow to move out of the area this afternoon and have adjusted highs a bit cooler in the mid to upper 60s as a result. By Saturday morning, we should see a return to southerly winds as the ridge makes its way overhead.
332 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain and cooler temperature expected through Saturday evening with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Low pressure will continue to propagate through the OH Valley through tonight.
300 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Upper level trough will deepen and cutoff as it moves across the eastern U.
As the storm system that brought copious amounts of rain to southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks over the past couple of days shifts eastward, upper-level ridging will begin building into the region. The weekend will start warmer and drier with high temps in the low to mid 70s expected Saturday afternoon.
High pressure will allow for a hot and dry forecast to remain in place for the remainder of this afternoon and evening. In fact, a strengthening of the high pressure will drive temperatures even higher as we get into Saturday.
Otherwise, the high wind warning for today looks on track. Therefore, have left the High Wind Warnings as is for portions of Central and North Central Montana through late this afternoon/early this evening. While no current High Wind highlights exist further to the south of the High Wind Warning, portions of Southwest Montana (i.
219 PM MDT Fri May 6 2022 The deepening trough continues to draw southward along the Pacific Coast today, and is starting to turn our flow more from the southwest. The leading edge of the trough will move east, bringing a jet streak across western WY by 12Z Saturday. The trough will also bring midlevel instability to the NW corner of the state. The trough will also bring a cold front across the state during the afternoon, focusing some of the winds, and bringing the rain chances east across the divide into central WY.
In the meantime, the heat will ramp up on Saturday as an H5 ridge continues to build overhead. The ridge will bring a swath of 850mb temperatures between 25 to 27 degrees, especially in the Rio Grande Plains, western Brush Country, and western Upper Rio Grande Valley, Saturday afternoon. No rain or storms are expected on Saturday, but pressure falls over the High Plains as the next storm system develops will help tighten the local pressure gradient and bring breezy southeast winds to coastal sections on Saturday.
223 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift across the area through mid afternoon as an upper-level trough and its associated cold front pivot through the area. Expect low clouds to build in overnight as a push of cooler air continues filters in behind the front.
Relatively dry and warm today under temporary flat ridging aloft. The next Pacific trough, with axis along 40-45N/135W this morning, will reach the WA/OR coast late today, then inland this evening and through our CWA overnight. Ahead of the trough southwest surface winds will increase to near advisory speeds in southeast Oregon this afternoon. Modest instability will develop isolated thunderstorms in the showers to our north, and the showers will expand south and east over all zones tonight as a cold front moves through ahead of the upper trough. After a short break on Saturday the next Pacific trough will approach.
241 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 19z WV satellite reveals an upper low over the OH Valley, an upper trough west of Cascadia, zonal flow aloft spreading over the Rockies, and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles with heights aloft tending to build. As pressure gradient and concomitant downslope winds increase, height rises aloft in the wake of the upper low reach their apex as well. Saturday, upper troughing advances over the Pacific Northwest with an associated 100 knot on the equatorward side of this feature overspreading the Rockies.
310 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 The lingering mid level deformation that has been fairly efficient at generating a narrow band of light rain across the southern sections of the forecast area today will slide south of the state line by late evening as mid level ridging continues its expanse into the northern Great Lakes.
Broad upper trough will bring several showers to the region over the next several days. Windy conditions are likely late tonight into early Saturday morning as a strong cold front passes through the region and will continue through much of Saturday as cold air pours into the region.
Models bring a weak short wave trough across S TX tonight, but moisture will be too limited for any precipitation. Mid/upper level ridge will build across S TX Saturday resulting in more sunshine and hot, humid conditions. Heat Advisory conditions are possible Saturday if the higher heat indices around 110 become more widespread and last longer than two hours. Lows Saturday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than tonight's expected values, but generally in the 70s area-wide.
323 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Looks as though we will finally going to transition into a dry and gradually warmer weather pattern over the weekend. The upper low pressure system and cold front that brought clouds, scattered showers and even some thunderstorms today will continue to push off to the east tonight. This will allow an upper level ridge of high pressure to translate eastward into the MS River Valley region during the weekend. It may take at awhile Saturday to clear out the low stratus, esp as one heads east into wrn KY/sw IN. Areas along and west of the MS River should see from near 70 to the lower 70s.
Southerly winds will continue through the overnight period as lee troughing continues. Minimums tomorrow morning should warmer with values bottoming out around 50F. Some guidance is warmer, some is cooler across the eastern zones.
The surface cold front was moving east into far West Tennessee and into Northwest Mississippi. This activity is associated with upper level height falls due to the close proximity to the upper low.
131 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 High pressure and dry air have resulted in a mostly clear and calm night across the region, with lows dipping into the 30s by the lakeshores and 20s in some locations inland. The primary concern has quickly shifted to fire weather as Upper Michigan sits under high pressure.
(The rest of today ) Low clouds continue across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning on backside of departing upper low.
1113 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain and cooler temperature through Saturday evening with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Low pressure will continue to propagate through the OH Valley today, through Saturday. Waves of rain showers are likely on and off all day, through tonight in association with pivoting low pressure.
Mainly clear skies can be seen on satellite this afternoon across southeastern Arizona, under a building upper ridge. Some of the lower desert locations will flirt with triple digits on Saturday, and winds will begin to increase across the entire forecast area. This is due to a developing trough that digs down the western US.
935 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain and cooler temperature expected through Saturday evening with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Low pressure will continue its slow advancement across the Ohio Valley region tonight.
/issued 309 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ Showers and earlier thunderstorms have surpassed our expectations today as an upper level low shifted out of the Midsouth over middle Tennessee.
/DC/ Through Saturday: We're experiencing a breezy, but otherwise mostly clear and pleasant, afternoon in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning. A broken cloud deck has been pesky across parts of north MS through the day as the upper low continues to pivot across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and high res guidance suggests a few associated light showers may sneak into the Golden Triangle area; thus low PoP scattered sprinkles were added to the forecast for that area just for the early evening. Daytime temps should creep back up a few degrees tomorrow as low level heights begin to increase again in the wake of the departing trough.
Low pressure was pushing into the Ohio Valley but the deformation zone across the dvn cwa was still lingering. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from the lower to mid 50s roughly along and east of the MS River to the mid 60s at Independence, IA. Then as the storm system in the Ohio Valley continues to push east, high pressure ridge will build into our area overnight. Saturday: Finally, what we have been waiting for! A fantastic way to start the weekend as heights rise and high pressure resides across the Great Lakes region. Still looks to be a dry and pleasant day for much of the area as the high pressure from the short term period begins to exit to the east.
801 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will shift out of the area later this evening as an upper low moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. Saturday will be cooler and drier with a chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the northeastern Midlands.
619 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Dry weather continues Saturday morning as upper level ridging remains over region.
Upper low will continue to translate east. Widely scattered showers will develop in the wake of the upper low and continue overnight along with MVFR ceilings. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 65 52 76 54 / 40 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 61 51 72 51 / 70 40 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 63 50 72 51 / 70 30 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 60 49 68 47 / 70 80 40 10 0.
908 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A trailing cold front will move east across the Carolinas tonight. The low pressure and a reinforcing cold front from the north will then wobble from central VA southeast across eastern NC and offshore through Saturday. The parent upper low remains to our west but the best divergence aloft continues to shift northeastward. The synoptic cold front remains west of the area and will move through around midnight, effectively ending the threat of precip.
1010 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for the 7 days. Slightly cooler temps anticipated on Sat night, with lighter winds and clearer skies, wl support lows in the l/m 20s to l/m 30s most locations, with some frost likely.
0" with the highest totals falling west of I-29 where storms will be a bit more put together before weakening as they move east.
1023 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will shift out of the area later this evening as an upper low moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. Saturday will be cooler and drier with a chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the northeastern Midlands.
Dry and stable conditions exist Saturday as high pressure lingers over the northern great lakes. The lingering mid level deformation that has been fairly efficient at generating a narrow band of light rain across the southern sections of the forecast area today will slide south of the state line by late evening as mid level ridging continues its expanse into the northern Great Lakes.
Looks as though we will finally going to transition into a dry and gradually warmer weather pattern over the weekend. The upper low pressure system and cold front that brought clouds, scattered showers and even some thunderstorms today will continue to push off to the east tonight. This will allow an upper level ridge of high pressure to translate eastward into the MS River Valley region during the weekend. It may take at awhile Saturday to clear out the low stratus, esp as one heads east into wrn KY/sw IN. Areas along and west of the MS River should see from near 70 to the lower 70s.
1021 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Currently - The baggy western flank of an Atlantic ridge extending across Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico is maintaining light south to southwest breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Meanwhile, a deep layered stacked low pressure system continues to migrate east southeastward towards the Atlantic coast. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned low pressure system will be centered over the mid Atlantic states towards morning. Despite this progression, for the time being, the Atlantic ridge will hold across Cuba and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest that the low level inhibition layer should weaken overnight and a few showers will be possible late. An Atlantic ridge extending across Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will result in light south to southwest winds shifting more southwesterly overnight.
Weak impulses on the back side of the upper low over ern KY will continue to provide scattered light rain showers across the mid state overnight. Not too much cooler advection expected overnight. Upper level low is currently located over eastern KY at this time. However, weak disturbances on the back side of the low will continue to move across the area.
Conditions improve after sunrise Saturday with VFR conditions to return and swrly winds to develop as high pressure builds over the Gulf.
656 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Low pressure has moved off to the northeast. High pressure is moving into Araknsas and clouds will disispate overnight.
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift across the area through mid afternoon as an upper-level trough and its associated cold front pivot through the area. Expect low clouds to build in overnight as a push of cooler air continues filters in behind the front.
lumbering area of low pressure over the Upper Ohio valley will slowly pass to our south overnight before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
423 PM MDT Fri May 6 2022 The deepening trough continues to draw southward along the Pacific Coast today, and is starting to turn our flow more from the southwest. The leading edge of the trough will move east, bringing a jet streak across western WY by 12Z Saturday. The trough will also bring midlevel instability to the NW corner of the state. The trough will also bring a cold front across the state during the afternoon, focusing some of the winds, and bringing the rain chances east across the divide into central WY.
820 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A cold front continues pushing across the SE U. /issued 300 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022/ Upper level trough will deepen and cutoff as it moves across the eastern U.
725 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for the 7 days. Slightly cooler temps anticipated on Sat night, with lighter winds and clearer skies, wl support lows in the l/m 20s to l/m 30s most locations, with some frost likely.
The district will have below average temperatures along with chances of precipitation, mostly in the higher elevations of the Sierra north of Tulare County. This is continuing to flatten out a ridge that has been in place over the area the last few days. Cooler zonal flow will in place for Saturday.
1000 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Low pressure was over the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon with a front extending from the low into the Carolinas.
This high pressure will retreat north by tomorrow allowing for our winds from the E/SE 5-10KT to filter muggy Gulf air back inland. vicinity showers with a fair aftn expected area wide as upper level high pressure arrives. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Northwesterly winds along with dry northwesterly flow aloft has settled over the region in wake of the recent upper trough and cold front passage. But, with the warm front returning, the humidity and warmer conditions will return to portions of the region. The warm front will pull up stationary across the region Saturday night, with the gradient in temps and humidity remaining.
906 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 (Issued 906 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022) The upstream upper ridge will build over the wrn Great Lakes through Sat nt, while sfc ridging will extend from Quebec to the wrn Great Lakes.
/DC/ Prior discussion below: Through Saturday: We're experiencing a breezy, but otherwise mostly clear and pleasant, afternoon in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning. A broken cloud deck has been pesky across parts of north MS through the day as the upper low continues to pivot across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and high res guidance suggests a few associated light showers may sneak into the Golden Triangle area; thus low PoP scattered sprinkles were added to the forecast for that area just for the early evening. Daytime temps should creep back up a few degrees tomorrow as low level heights begin to increase again in the wake of the departing trough.
338 AM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Our region will be in between high pressure across eastern Canada and low pressure along the Virgina coast through tonight.
239 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022 A few lingering sprinkles/showers across the northeastern portion of the FA will diminish before daybreak as an upper level low moves further away. This, along with northwesterly winds, will keep temps a bit cooler across eastern areas with highs in the upper 60s. Western areas will be a bit warmer with highs in the lower 70s where breaks of sun are more likely in the afternoon.
155 AM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Low pressure was over the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon with a front extending from the low into the Carolinas.
405 AM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Rain and cooler temperature expected through Saturday evening with the slow passage of a low pressure system. An Ohio Valley low pressure has merged with a coastal low to the southeast. By late morning and early afternoon, the low will move away and the forcing for ascent will move eastward, ending precipitation. As the low pulls off to the southeast, high pressure will slowly build throughout the day on Saturday, though clouds will be maintained under easterly flow.
152 AM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Low pressure will slowly pass to our south overnight before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
225 AM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will shift out of the area later this evening as an upper low moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. Saturday will be cooler and drier with a chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the northeastern Midlands.
/Issued 241 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ 19z WV satellite reveals an upper low over the OH Valley, an upper trough west of Cascadia, zonal flow aloft spreading over the Rockies, and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles with heights aloft tending to build. As pressure gradient and concomitant downslope winds increase, height rises aloft in the wake of the upper low reach their apex as well. Saturday, upper troughing advances over the Pacific Northwest with an associated 100 knot on the equatorward side of this feature overspreading the Rockies.
Strong high pressure remains centered over eastern sections of Hudson Bay early this morning. with ridging extending into the Northern Great Lakes. High pressure center will continue to slowly drift eastward into Quebec over the next 24 hours. low pressure will continue to creep eastward out of the Ohio Valley.
Much warmer, summer- like weather arrives going into the new week with most of the area expected to warm into the 80s to low 90s especially by midweek. Temperatures today will be warmer than the last several days with values in the middle to upper 60s expected, which will surely feel pleasant despite cooler northeast winds.
Central Alabama will remain involved within backside/wraparound flow from a cyclone centered toward our northeast, which will promote spells of cloudiness focused on the northern-half, or so, of the state.
Then, activity will move eastward overnight aided by the low-level jet. Energy will gradually carve out an upper trof over the western CONUS early in the period. That trof is then expected to slowly retrograde as upper ridging exerts itself over the Southern Plains/mid to lower Mississippi valley. By the end of the period, energy is then expected to eject northeast into the High Plains and Northern Plains.
Isolated to scattered light to moderate showers will continue as the back edge of a departing area of low pressure moves further away from our area.