Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
310 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Today: With the trough axis situated right along the MS River corridor & continued broad moist isentropic ascent, some light showers are ongoing this morning. For that reason, even with some dryness in the low levels & some trace precip being observed, added some mention of light rain & drizzle through mid-morning before clearing by midday. Highs will be near normal in the low-mid 60s.
232 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Weak upper level ridging will spread across the area tonight followed by a developing trough across the Northern and Central Rockies. A dry ground and warmer temperatures aloft should support highs a little warmer than today, so will aim for mostly lower to mid 50s ands mid to upper 40s in locations with an inch or so of snow on the ground. Model trends continue to point towards precipitation chances remaining to the south and west of the area as the developing trough digs more into the Central and Southern Plains and brings through little more than a wind shift and cool down for us.
109 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 (Issued 109 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Quiet weather will persist through Wednesday across southern Wisconsin under the influence of high pressure centered over the east-central United States.
Despite the high PWat value, visible satellite does show that drier air moving in with the cloud shield lifting north of the Florida Keys. KBYX radar noted a quasi-stationary boundary south of the Keys this morning with an outflow boundary racing north across the distant Straits of Florida south of the Lower Keys. From synopsis: High pressure will linger over the eastern United States, stretch from Texas into the mid- Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, broad troughing will develop off the Florida Atlantic coast.
1217 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days into Thanksgiving.
219 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will remain nearby through Thanksgiving Day.
200 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days into Thanksgiving.
Aloft flow has turned more southwesterly allowing for Gulf moisture to be advected into the area and by tomorrow weak ridging will develop over the region. This set up will result in general benign weather for the remainder of the night and into tomorrow night with even warmer high and low temperatures.
1245 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry into Thanksgiving day while a warming trend occurs.
Starting Wednesday morning, the NAM indicates a shallow but saturated layer forms and without cloud ice, it could produce freezing drizzle. The 3km NAM is not as aggressive as the 12km NAM, so have backed off on the longevity of fzdz in our forecast, but still left it in for the most likely period 12Z Thu to 00Z Fri when a trough crosses adding some depth to the low level saturated layer.
A cold front will dip down from the north on Thanksgiving Day bringing locally gusty northeasterly winds and cooler daytime temperatures.
WAA in the low levels has allowed temperatures to exceed expectations today with most locations warming into the mid 60s this afternoon. Cloud cover should increase over the area tomorrow in response to low level moisture advection, however, conditions are expected to remain dry as the western trough digs over the Rockies.
(Through Tonight) The region will be between high pressure to the north northwest, and an inverted trough over the coastal waters through Tonight. Moisture will increase in the trough axis somewhat during the overnight, increasing precipitation chances down wind of the northeast flow across NE FL. Above normal temperatures are expected Tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 50s well inland SE GA, to the lower 60s coastal NE FL.
An upper trough that has brought light snow to eastern ND overnight will continue to exit to the east this morning. Upper ridging will build in over the northern Plains today bringing in warm and dry air. Winds will become more southerly on Wednesday ahead of a weak low pressure system that will move over central SD.
If enough moistening can occur in the lower levels, morning showers near the southern FL Big Bend may make an appearance, though chances remain low. Expect lows in the mid top upper 50s and highs in the low to mid 70s across the CWA tomorrow.
/NP/ Today: With the trough axis situated right along the MS River corridor & continued broad moist isentropic ascent, some light showers are ongoing this morning. For that reason, even with some dryness in the low levels & some trace precip being observed, added some mention of light rain & drizzle through mid-morning before clearing by midday. Highs will be near normal in the low-mid 60s.
1001 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will remain nearby through the middle of the week. Low pressure will approach from the south and west this weekend. Zonal flow will persist aloft today, with high pressure shifting just offshore at the surface. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal normals, with highs in the low to mid 50s in most spots. Tds will once again be on the low side after the passage of a weak trough and reinforcing surge of dry air overnight. Wednesday will feature much of the same as today, with zonal flow aloft and high pressure remaining in control at the surface.
Low temperatures will be warmer than previous nights, generally in the mid 40s. Moisture return will continue across the forecast area, ahead of a deepening upper level trough across the Rockies.
(This afternoon) The mid-morning water vapor satellite imagery continues to indicate weak troughing aloft over the TX Hill Country into Deep S TX, which has been responsible for maintaining a steady stream of elevated cigs from SE TX into much of LA/Lower MS Valley. This features is progged to slowly drift E into S LA and the Lower MS Valley by this evening, shifting these cigs farther E as a result.
Meanwhile, mostly cloudy skies look to dominate this afternoon until late, when clearing is expected beginning near the WI border as ridging begins to build in. With mostly cloudy skies dominating this afternoon, expect the high temps this afternoon to be at or just below freezing, save for near Lake MI where obs are already showing temps up to the mid 30s.
Areas to exercise caution when traveling will be I-90, MT-200, and MT-2 west of US-93 and US-12 Lolo to Lolo Pass, especially bridges. That said a change over to snow will be rather fast and road surface temperatures are forecast to lower to freezing by 7pm PST, so icy stretches on roads will be possible.
Highs are now expected to be in the high 60s and low 70s throughout the forecast area with high clouds lingering throughout the day. Moderate northeast winds will continue through Wednesday as high pressure will be located in the Ohio Valley interacting with low pressure in the southwest Gulf. As the high pressure moves east mid week, winds will switch to the east.
(The rest of today ) Quiet weather expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails.
116 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days into Thanksgiving.
The southern TAFs terminals could have the lowest ceilings resulting in LIFR conditions around ~09Z and then gradually IFR conditions through the morning hours.
139 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure and very dry air will cover the region through tomorrow.
1113 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 (The rest of today ) Quiet weather expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails.
1221 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure and very dry air will cover the region through Wednesday.
A weak cold front will reach Southeast Oregon around 01Z tonight quickly moving southeast into Southwest Idaho by 03z exiting the forecast area by 09z. Inversion weakens with the passage of the trough however, doesn't erode the inversion completely in the model soundings.
(Now through Tonight) Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure engulfing much of the SE US, with our showers/sprinkles from this morning now well to the east.
1250 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days into Thanksgiving.
1111 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Latest satellite imagery is showing mainly clear skies across Missouri and Illinois while the surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the Mid South with a front extending from the northern Plains to along the Iowa/Missouri border northeastward into southern Great Lakes. Britt While there is some differences between the GFS and the ECMWF/ Canadian on how quickly an upper low will move across the area this weekend, overall the models are in better agreement than they were 24 hours ago.
1026 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry into Thanksgiving day while a warming trend occurs.
Dry conditions will continue on Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of the weather. The main issue on Wednesday will be is if the low clouds and fog do develop how long will they persist across the region. The NAM continues with its cold bias given it continues the low clouds and fog as well as some drizzle. Again given the model uncertainty leaned towards the better performing models and warmer temperatures for Wednesday. If the low clouds persist highs could be a good 10 degrees cooler than currently forecast. Highs are expected to range from around 40 across the north to the lower 40s across central and east- central Wisconsin.
MORNING DISCUSSION: A weak upper ridge sits over the Northern Rockies and will be broken down a bit with the next system as it moves east from the Pacific Northwest today. Incoming upper trof will begin to develop a Canadian low tonight. Warm front overriding any lingering cold air could produce some light precipitation in the southwest late tonight, but there will be a slightly better chance on Wednesday as a cold front drops south. For this reason have decided to include freezing rain possibility for Wednesday morning although impact should be limited.
259 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
1005 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2022 Current surface map places stalled backdoor cold front across central South Dakota. A few inches of snow is likely, with a low chance(20-30%) for accumulations greater than 4 inches in the higher elevations. For the plains, the main impact will be strong northwest winds behind the cold front with 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises and 40kt+ winds in the mixed layer. After a dry and cooler Thanksgiving day, warmer than average temperatures will return for the weekend.
Upper level zonal flow stays in place into Wednesday, with high pressure at the surface. 500mb flow then becomes more southwesterly as a trough and low develops over the southwest US and starts to move this way.
1117 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night ) High pressure will bring largely dry conditions to the region the next couple of days. As the period progresses, a large trough will form and deepen in the Rockies, with a cutoff low forming in Colorado/New Mexico Wednesday night. A west/northwest flow in prior days will be replaced by a milder southwest flow ahead of the aforementioned trough.
1148 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 (This afternoon) The mid-morning water vapor satellite imagery continues to indicate weak troughing aloft over the TX Hill Country into Deep S TX, which has been responsible for maintaining a steady stream of elevated cigs from SE TX into much of LA/Lower MS Valley. This features is progged to slowly drift E into S LA and the Lower MS Valley by this evening, shifting these cigs farther E as a result.
Wednesday is warmer and dry. High pressure centered north of the area continues to hang on, suppressing low level moisture south and east of the area. Highs around seasonal average in the low to mid 60s. Tonight, clouds remain over the forecast area with temperatures in the low 40s across the NW to upper 40s SE with a gradient in place as low clouds will likely be more prevalent in the SE forecast area. Temperatures aloft will be a few degrees above normal and highs are expected to be on the warmer side.
101 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Dry weather and a slow warming trend will continue through Thanksgiving thanks to high pressure.
1247 PM MST Tue Nov 22 2022 AFTERNOON UPDATE: Some changes have occured to the forecast for Wednesday night with the passing warm front.
Tomorrow looks even warmer with highs in the 60s areawide, with lows Wednesday night continuing the warming trend and only dropping into the upper 30s and 40s.
322 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Discussion/Marine - Risk for freezing fog again tonight The skies will end up mostly clear overnight along with the winds become calm. The overnight low temperatures are predicted to dip down into the low to mid 20's away from the lakeshore. With the temperatures below freezing we will go with patchy freezing fog in the forecast.
High pressure remains elongated from central Texas east-northeast into the Mid-Atlantic States. Aloft low-level mean layer ridging is centered near Bermuda and is buckling along the southwestern periphery as an inverted trough takes shape. Relatively drier air in the lower levels moved in this morning helping to erode the low level clouds along and south of the island chain. As a result, temperatures this afternoon have risen into the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s, making it quite muggy. Current temperatures this afternoon are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. At the same the aforementioned inverted trough will show a surface reflection just off the southeast Florida coast. By Wednesday the next potent Pacific Upper Level Low will slide southeast into the Southern Plains.
459 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Weak upper level ridging will spread across the area tonight followed by a developing trough across the Northern and Central Rockies. A dry ground and warmer temperatures aloft should support highs a little warmer than today, so will aim for mostly lower to mid 50s ands mid to upper 40s in locations with an inch or so of snow on the ground. Model trends continue to point towards precipitation chances remaining to the south and west of the area as the developing trough digs more into the Central and Southern Plains and brings through little more than a wind shift and cool down for us.
Tomorrow will bring more noticeably warmer weather with highs expected in upper 60s to low 70s across the area.
515 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 (Now through Tonight) Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure engulfing much of the SE US, with our showers/sprinkles from this morning now well to the east.
With the highs departure, warm air advection will bring milder temperatures. Meanwhile, aloft, a zonal flow will begin to buckle, and ridging will move in from the west and pass over on Wednesday night. High clouds in advance of the next system will start to show up as the ridging aloft passes on Wednesday night. The period begins with southwest flow allowing for warmer temperatures to start the period.
weakening and moving to the east on Wednesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Moisture will increase in the low levels in the southern half of the state. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 30s to mid 40s.
Fairly quiet tonight and into tomorrow as northwesterly flow aloft gives way to upper ridging over the Eastern Plains tonight. Split flow trough will move into the Rockies Wednesday and then into the Plains Wednesday night.
Tonight's lows reflect slightly milder temps over the subtle higher terrain areas where slightly better mixing may be able to tap into warmer temps aloft.
Thanksgiving: Cooler with some afternoon N-NE breezes as system deepens a bit across New Mexico and upper ridge amplifies over west coast. Highs are forecast to be 4-8 degrees cooler versus Wednesday.
A upper level trough over the Rockies and developing lee trough over the High Plains will bring steady southerly winds back to the Plains on Wednesday.
I've bumped overnight lows down a bit based on dew points, so while it will be warmer than the last several nights, everybody should still get to the freezing mark by sunrise. Another fantastic day is on tap for Thanksgiving Eve with plenty of sun and temperatures a degree or two warmer than today. Tomorrow looks even warmer with highs in the 60s areawide, with lows Wednesday night continuing the warming trend and only dropping into the upper 30s and 40s.
541 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days into Thanksgiving.
836 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will remain nearby through Thanksgiving Day.
On Wednesday, a trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will move south, briefly maximizing lift across the northern and central Colorado mountains. Latest QPF amounts have increased from previous forecasts (over 1/4 inch in the parts of the northern Colorado high country) with the introduction of the higher resolution models in the short term periods. Additionally, some differences remain as to how far west the center of the low might push.
Flow will be southwesterly tonight, and with some above freezing temperatures to our south today, there will be a possibility for some low-level moisture advection that, combined with generally clear skies tonight, could result in some fog for parts of the region. In addition, a trough and an attendant cold front will pass through on Thanksgiving, and the lift associated with the trough's passage combined with just enough low-level moisture could result in a very light wintry mix. At this time, low-level thermal profiles would likely support freezing drizzle (AM) or drizzle (PM) on Thanksgiving day due to a lack of ice production in the precipitation-producing layer.
Very light and brief snowfall possible in higher elevations of Elko County tonight with little accumulation as a cold front pushes through. Tonight through early Thankgiving morning A mainly dry cold front is pushing through the state this evening, allowing for an increase in cloud coverage. A few light snow showers are possible in the higher elevations of northern Nevada, mainly Elko, but snowfall totals with these showers are likely to be less than an inch due to the lack of moisture with this front.
The passage of a dry cold front Wednesday night will lead to gusty north winds within the lower Colorado River Valley, especially Wednesday night through Thanksgiving Day. A vigorous trough will dive from the Pacific Northwest down through Utah and over the Four Corners Region by Wednesday evening which will bring a dry cold front through southern Nevada and surrounding areas.
Freezing temperatures are expected again overnight in the rural portions of the San Joaquin Valley. Near freezing conditions with frost in the valley will continue through the remainder of this week.
613 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
947 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
544 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 VFR conditions will generally prevail as dry low level flow around high pressure will persist. Apart from an increase in midlevel clouds, little change to the sensible weather is expected for Mid and Southeast Michigan through the rest of the day owing to weak forcing and plenty of dry air in the lowest 12 kft. Temps tonight will be on the cooler side of normal but a touch milder than last night with readings in the 20s by early Wednesday.
Some high clouds are beginning to filter in from the west that may lead to slightly warmer overnight lows. Fairly quiet tonight and into tomorrow as northwesterly flow aloft gives way to upper ridging over the Eastern Plains tonight. Split flow trough will move into the Rockies Wednesday and then into the Plains Wednesday night.
643 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Dry weather and a slow warming trend will continue through Thanksgiving thanks to high pressure.
Lows tonight should be above freezing for most of the area.
(Tonight) High pressure will remain in place over the TN Valley tonight, with calm winds and skies becoming mostly clear. Given this trend, have lowered the overnight lows by a degree or two, though most locations will remain above freezing.
612 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days into Thanksgiving.
A cold front will dip down from the north on Thanksgiving Day bringing gusty northeasterly winds and cooler daytime temperatures.
Likewise, blend continues to struggle mightily with the abrupt and steady warming, and have gone straight NBM 95th percentile for highs today as a result - mid 50s to low 60s will be easily within reach across the area, if not slightly warmer, depending on how fast thin high clouds, depicted in forecast soundings as gradually increasing moisture above about 400 mb, begin to stream into the area later today.
Seasonably warmer today with a mostly clear sky as high pressure begins to shift eastward. Discussion: Temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer today as high pressure shifts eastward with southerly flow beginning to return. Upper ridging will be across the region ahead of an amplifying trough across the Southern Great Plains. Southerly boundary layer flow tonight along with an upper level jet streak will bring an increase in high clouds and warmer overnight low temperatures. We should see some significant variation in temperatures across the region with higher elevations being warmer than sheltered valleys.
The higher cloud coverage will once again keep overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s across east central Florida.
This change made the zone forecast wording for Wayne change from lows in the mid 20s in valleys to lows in the lower 20s in valleys. With the highs departure, warm air advection will bring milder temperatures. Meanwhile, aloft, a zonal flow will begin to buckle, and ridging will move in from the west and pass over on Wednesday night. High clouds in advance of the next system will start to show up as the ridging aloft passes on Wednesday night. The period begins with southwest flow allowing for warmer temperatures to start the period.
1227 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
The low levels are very dry, so that will limit precipitation across the lower valleys, like the Treasure Valley and the Boise area. Surface winds: generally E-SE around 10kt, shifting northwest with the passage of a cold front overnight.
101 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days into Thanksgiving.
956 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 (Tonight) High pressure will remain in place over the TN Valley tonight, with calm winds and skies becoming mostly clear. Given this trend, have lowered the overnight lows by a degree or two, though most locations will remain above freezing.
It is difficult to find much weather worth discussing as ridging builds across Upper Michigan today.
1139 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Dry, warm weather will continue through Thanksgiving under high pressure.
majority of temps across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas were running slightly warmer compared to 24-hrs ago. while the low clouds/moisture lift into parts of Eastern Oklahoma. These conditions combined with southerly winds generally less than 10mph should aid in keeping temps warmer tonight compared to last night. The normal cold spots of Northwest Arkansas could get down into the lower 30s as the increasing moisture looks to be more over the western half of the CWA and further west.
253 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Key Messages: - Above average temps likely through the weekend with highs in the upper 30s to as high as the low 50s.
Temperatures will also be similar to or slightly cooler than yesterday.