Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
AND PUSH THE BOUNDARY/CLOUDS/FOG/LIGHT SNOW/COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT MOIST PROFILES THROUGH ABOUT 5KFT INDICATE TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN/SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. BUT THEN AN INTRUSION OF WARM AIR ALOFT COULD MEAN PRECIP CHANGES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS. WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN CONUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.
341 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TO HELP STEER A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS /DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA/ AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
101 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE AS OF 08Z. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST. BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.
The upper pattern continues to be dominated by a high amplitude ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east, maintaining dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. A weak cold front today has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures, especially across northern portions of the forecast area.
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT THEN AN INTRUSION OF WARM AIR ALOFT COULD MEAN PRECIP CHANGES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.
High pressure sinking south through the plains states will affect temperatures to the negative side over the next couple of days.
227 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S THIS AFTN. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
1202 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THOSE WANTING WARMER WEATHER YOU ARE GOING TO BE DISAPPOINTED. WILL END THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS AN 850 MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BOTH GLOBAL MODEL AND MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS MAINLY NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S.
Winds will strengthen from the north during the last 3-6 hours of the valid TAF period following a cold front. Temperatures will be much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in parts of far southeast Oklahoma. /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ Cold front currently passing through the area which will push temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through the area on Friday.
1239 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION DRY AND COOL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT SATURATING TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected for the remainder of the area tonight with lows ranging from the lower 20s across the eastern Ozarks to the upper 20s along the I-49 corridor. As that upper level disturbance begins to depart, a surface cold front will push through the Ozarks Friday morning.
A WEAK COLD FRONT LIES DRAPED ACROSS THE DFW METRO AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. /ISSUED 238 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer temperatures to the region along with increasing low level moisture. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia.
THIS WAS DUE TO THE FREEZING FOG THEY HAD THIS MORNING THAT LINGERED OVER THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 18Z TO 19Z.
/issued 312 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with an upper level ridge over the western conus. A cold front will move into the area today resulting in slightly cooler temperatures from yesterday.
1006 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL GET UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO IT THANKS TO A TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH UPSTREAM REACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70.
AND WOULD OTHERWISE GET WARMER THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the 20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower 40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and evening hours.
1214 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE AS OF 08Z. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST. BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER EARLY FRI EVENING WILL BRING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS. AND THE HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA ALL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRI NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS.
1056 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST- SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THIS COULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VRBL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA.
739 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
IN ADDITION, AN ILL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EDGING SE OVER THE TN VALLEY TODAY. THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE, THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR MELTING WILL LIMIT THE IMPACTS TO THESE STORMS TO PRIMARILY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT FROM MIDDLE TN INTO FAR NW AL WILL SLIDE SE TODAY PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND TSRA.
LOW CLOUDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING PER SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING AND HAVE REMOVED THE LOWER SCT010/020 DECKS FROM THE THE REGIONAL TAFS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
729 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015 Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains. Otherwise, the forecast of cooler temperatures today is on track as this weak low moves inland.
A cool and cloudy morning is underway across the region, as the area largely remains under the influence of an upper low slowly spinning east across east central Arkansas. This upper low should finally move far enough east of the area by this afternoon to allow for partial clearing. The warmer readings can be expected over southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, where the opportunity for sunshine will be higher.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW COOL DOWN HEADING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U. MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE LOW THIS MORNING AT SKY HARBOR WAS 78. UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS CLEARED TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING.
1132 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
634 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN SD NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. STILL EXPECTING STORM INITIATION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT COULD VERY WELL ALLOW FOR CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR SOME FORM OF AN MCS TO MARCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
1249 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THE LOW. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CAUSE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS CYCLE. ALOFT UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING EASTERN HALF OF U. UPPER LOW CRAWLS EASTWARD AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z TUESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 24 DURING THE DAY.
401 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015 Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains.
1218 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
954 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
1002 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
/ISSUED 343 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN THE PROCESS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MORE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FURTHER FLATTEN THE RIDGE BUT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT OR ELIMINATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
915 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
IN ADDITION, AN ILL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EDGING SE OVER THE TN VALLEY TODAY. THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE, THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR MELTING WILL LIMIT THE IMPACTS TO THESE STORMS TO PRIMARILY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSING BEFORE PEAK HEATING BEGINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN SD NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. STILL EXPECTING STORM INITIATION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT COULD VERY WELL ALLOW FOR CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR SOME FORM OF AN MCS TO MARCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
1039 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW WITH WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROUGH CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE SRN APPALACHIANS/NEAR THE UPSTATE BY TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LOW WAS DISTINCTLY EVIDENT ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO. TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD. OVERSPREADING A COOLER LESS UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIODS.
IT WILL BE ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE CWA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 60S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY WHILE SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CAN BE SEEN SPINNING OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW.
1152 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER TUCKER COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
806 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW WITH WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROUGH CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE SRN APPALACHIANS/NEAR THE UPSTATE BY TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER.
1111 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN AND SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD. AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE NEWD. EXPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLEVIATE THIS AND HELP TO LIFT/SCATTER THE LOW CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FCST MAX TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE REGION BUT I DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN COVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING GIVEN CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TO SLOW THE WARMING. THE PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO SUPPORT COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS.
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON WILL DRIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SW OREGON THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL MAKE THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TOMORROW AS PART OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. OWING TO COOLER TEMPS.
/ISSUED 311 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015/ THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY HAS INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AROUND MID WEEK.
627 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL TURN TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THAN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ONE MORE DRY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN OREGON WILL LIFT NORTH OVER WASHINGTON TODAY. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 1111 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN AND SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD. AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE NEWD. EXPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLEVIATE THIS AND HELP TO LIFT/SCATTER THE LOW CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FCST MAX TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED GOOD MOISTURE/LEAST CAPPING LIMITED TO THE SERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT EWD ACROSS TX. BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN HAPPENING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SINKING AIR ALOFT BECMG ESTABLISHED.