Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 THE WEAK UPPER LOW WHICH SPREAD A CLOUDS INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR CWA TODAY. AND HIGHS CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SHOULD BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR. SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING CREATING NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A BROAD UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER MID- WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TAX PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SCATTERED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM SE TN SOUTH TO NEAR THE LOW OFF THE AL COAST.
1010 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO TONIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. REMOVED THE LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
724 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OHIO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
1027 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
LOWERED TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT TOO AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN SHOULD ALLOW AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE DAY. ON TUESDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. OFFSHORE THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
WHILE A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TODAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WNW BY TONIGHT. AS FAR AS PCPN POTENTIAL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT STORMS TO DVLP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTN ACROSS NERN CO AND RANGE FM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NR THE WY BORDER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY.
754 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY. PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD NW PA BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEG ABV AVERAGE WITH MID SUMMER-LIKE DWPTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN WARMER. AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD IFR/AREAS MVFR COVERING CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5KFT AGL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE MORE DRAMATICALLY.
642 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK HOWEVER TIMING/LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15KT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SITES.
1058 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL WY. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AS THE FA REMAINS ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT CLEARING OVER NE WY WITH WARMER CONDS.
BOTH SURFACE AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRES UP OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WHILE THE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ UPPER RIDGE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE IDYLLIC MONUMENT ROCKS IN KANSAS WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDISTURBED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CENTER IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER BAJA MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.
1023 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SHALLOW INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCT TO OVC VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL A SFC COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHICH SHOULD HELP DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND POTENTIALLY DROP VSBYS INTO THE HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SETTLING OVER SRN WI BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NRN CWA.
UPPER LOW OVER SE TEXAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF WITH ALI/LRD EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO MID 90S NEAR LAREDO. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY.
715 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 CURRENT SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DOUGLAS WYOMING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL WYOMING AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW- LYING AREAS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AROUND THE TIME OF THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERIWSE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ENTERING SE ND/NW MN. OTHERWISE WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO SW MANITOBA AND THIS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SFC EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE AND SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND BY 12Z TUES.
Cloud cover will keep highs limited to the low 80s.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
840 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL WY. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AS THE FA REMAINS ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT CLEARING OVER NE WY WITH WARMER CONDS.
445 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
1255 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OHIO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STACKED COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE MOVING EAST AND SHEARING OUT AS IT DOES. MODELS OPEN UP THE LOW AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST 99L) NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS AT THE CAPE SHOW SOME LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THAT WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDS N/NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF TWD N FL. HOWEVER THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE MONTH WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY SO AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED AS SWELLS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND TIDAL DEPARTURES UP TO 1 TO 1.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. QUASI- STATIONARY SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMING TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY.
AS THE LOW OVER TEXAS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E/NE. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME DRY AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS. AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY MIGRATE SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK SENDING A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BROADER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AS A SERIES OF WEEK PERTURBATIONS CLIP NE NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD. WITH ANOTHER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST RIDGING SOUTHWARD. THE WIND FLOW WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE GULF. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible across far Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon, as deeper moisture begins to lift north, in association with upper low/inverted trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
438 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WEEK.
635 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Subtle mid-level height rises across the area will act to keep skies mostly clear today aside from a few cirrus clouds to the south, and will also allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s across the forecast area. A cold front will slide into the region from the north on Tuesday, with some fairly thick post-frontal moisture bringing quite a bit of cloud cover from north to south during the day. Sprawling high pressure behind the front will dominate the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valleys for the remainder of the week, giving our area cool northeasterly low-level flow.
510 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE MINNESOTA AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN IS FOR THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BETTER WIND SHEAR WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH.
CURRENT UPPER LOW CENTER IS DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS. CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH BUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BUMP UP THE GRADIENT OVER THE DELTA REGION.
ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH AL. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF. AND INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. AND A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE.
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION TODAY.
658 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY.
648 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TO THE NORTH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE U. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. MONDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID this evening.
RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECTING FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
310 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY.
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO DICKINSON. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS REACHING ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES.
235 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE WEEK.
451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow aloft. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK. A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE FRONT.
That won't last too long though as a cold front brings good rain chances and continued below normal temperatures. The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern Mexico.
324 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF A POTENT FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND AND UPPER 70S. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER. BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN. COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL COOL TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL.
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND EAST CENTRAL TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LOW OR SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING MORE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER EAST TENNESSEE. IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THE CHATTANOOGA AREA WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S AGAIN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES TODAY WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOSES STEAM TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
1129 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO VCNTY CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DISTURBANCE INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM AND INTO NRN NM THRU 05/21Z. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 05/18Z. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AT CHA BY 00Z AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT STAY MVFR AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NEARLY EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN BY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT ARRIVAL LATE THIS EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND A CONTINUED THREAT OR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL PROGGED TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER.
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
536 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION TODAY.
THE BEST COVERAGE/CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR IN WHITE PINE COUNTY.
317 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY.
ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MT WHERE STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND CANADIAN UPPER LOW HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS AND WAS THROUGH JUDITH GAP PER STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 08Z. MODEL CONSENSUS HAD THE COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM KBIL W BEFORE 12Z.