Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MID STATE TONIGHT, AS LOW CENTER MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA TO OHIO. DEEP MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND UNDERSIDE OF THIS LOW CENTER, ACROSS MIDDLE TN, TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO TURN COLDER, WITH LOWS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as additional energy pinwheels the trof. Most of todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there now below freezing. As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that's where we'll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic plunge strengthens its grip.
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND ERN N AMERICA. WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF ONSHORE SAT AND IT'S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LESS GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
WITH RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS ALL THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
GETTING REPORTS OF A TRACE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO FAR AS WELL AS SOME SLICK ROADS DUE TO TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. DEEP UPPER CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND.
1016 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 CURRENTLY - A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT TERM UPDATE - SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. COOLER WATERS ON THE GULF AND BAY SIDE MAY ACT TO DAMPEN THE STRONGEST WINDS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH KEYS WATERS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING.
BUT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NR FREEZING NORTH. WITH A DEEP ERN TROF HELPING TO DRAW A COOL AND VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. AND KEPT LOWS TWD THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WED AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WITH THIS TREND ACCELERATING INTO THU AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ON THE PLATEAU AND WILL REACH FREEZING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH A DEEP ERN TROF HELPING TO DRAW A COOL AND VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. AND KEPT LOWS TWD THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WED AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WITH THIS TREND ACCELERATING INTO THU AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS CUTTING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO THE BIG BEND AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AT 01Z. THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS WILL GENERATE CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS SO EVEN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE TEMPERATURE FALL AND LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH KLEE-KDAB 03-04Z AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF KSUA BY 07-08Z. SOME SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEEDS IS EXPECTED A LITTLE BEFORE/AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE HILL COUNTRY WITH SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND DECREASING WINDS.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WITH A RIDGE PUMPED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON RADAR IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY WAS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE STATE.
AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AND AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN HALF. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
242 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS. AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL THROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. BUT MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FZDZ-/-FZRA IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S READINGS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE GRADUALLY EDGING EAST WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
Most locations west of the I-75 corridor are now at or below freezing.
TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S READINGS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE GRADUALLY EDGING EAST WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OREGON AT THIS TIME. COOL/MOIST AIR IS MOVING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM EASTERN IDAHO /DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOW COVER/ AND IS POOLING IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AROUND ONTARIO. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SAW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. BUT CHANCES SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO WORK EASTERLY.
454 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2015 A dry cold front will continue to push through the region this morning bringing breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Cooler and showery conditions will prevail through the week as a series of Pacific storms move through the region.
EXPECT VFR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z TUES AS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH DRY AIR WEST FROM EAST TX. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES/WEST COAST SLOWLY BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE IS BUILDING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY.
1059 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH AND PREVAIL RIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND. IT'S A BRIGHT SUNNY AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEVERAL WAVES DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEADILY AMPLIFY A DOWNSTREAM. RIDGE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER 3-4 DAYS OF SPLENDID LATE SUMMER WEATHER. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK.
701 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN US WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL SUSTAIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL PLACE SE MI WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THE LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY.
915 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
1020 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NC TODAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODELS INDICATE AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIFT NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WED/THU: A WEAK WAVE LOCATED OVER COASTAL LA/MS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE WEAK FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE DRY GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL RIDGING/ SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW- MID 80S AS THICKNESSES INCH BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. THU NIGHT-SUN: A SPRAWLING MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TX WILL EXPAND NE INTO NC LATE IN THE WEEK.
618 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE A COOLER AIR MASS IS OOZING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. AND WHERE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
40 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE TEXAS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Winds will also increase but given the location of the surface lee trough during the afternoon wind speeds are not expected to be as strong. A fairly deep mixed layer is forecast by late day and based on temperatures at the top of this mixed layer the highs today should easily climb into the mid to upper 90s across north central and western Kansas. Highs may end up being a few degrees cooler in south central Kansas. A southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the central high plains today as an upper level trough approaches the west coast. The upper level trough that was located along the west coast on Monday is forecast to lift northeast towards the Northern Plains mid week. This will keep the surface lee trough near the Colorado border mid week.
1013 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING THAT HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE TENN VALLEY BUT A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS SE AR INTO CENTRAL LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART AS OF 15Z WERE RUNNING SOME 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ISSUED A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS FROM BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THAT LINE. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGING BACK TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TEXAS WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH HAS INDUCED A 998MB LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
Light low level flow from the northeast today will help return some warmer, moister air from the Atlantic coast. Highs today will peak in the low to mid 80s.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE TODAY SHOWERS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CA AND THE EAST SIDE LATE THIS MORNING AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA AS INDICATED BY THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PROGS.
706 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 AFTER LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEPART BY EARLY AFTERNOON, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN, TO BRING DRY WARMER WEATHER, FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL NY. HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST RUNS OF OUR HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS, THAT THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE 10 AM-1 PM TIME FRAME, AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH FILLS, AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. VERY QUIET WEATHER IS FORESEEN THIS PERIOD, AS AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES, IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESIDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE U.
928 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 AFTER LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEPART BY AFTERNOON, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN, TO BRING DRY WARM WEATHER, FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL NY. HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST RUNS OF OUR HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS, THAT THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE 10 AM-1 PM TIME FRAME, AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH FILLS, AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. VERY QUIET WEATHER IS FORESEEN THIS PERIOD, AS AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES, IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESIDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE U.
510 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EAST AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST SWITCHING UPPER FLOW TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE CWA. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH GIVEN 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MT INTO ND WITH COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA.
MOIST AND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
1025 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. RIDGING AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ARE PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH RIDGING PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST.
1038 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD OF THE REGION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT THRU TONIGHT. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID TEMPS IN DROPPING INTO THE 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUES. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
616 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 THE 07Z MSL PLOT SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WYOMING- MONTANA LINE NEAR GILLETTE WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-WEEK.
607 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 THE 07Z MSL PLOT SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WYOMING- MONTANA LINE NEAR GILLETTE WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-WEEK.
1121 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES. THUNDERSTORMS CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EARLY MORNING. THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEPEN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WITH TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REFORM OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH NO SOLID COLD FRONTS ON THE HORIZON.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO VEER E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NAM/GFS AND ECMWF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW A HIGHER TREND IN POPS WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE BY THE MON EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY TUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 70S. 15 INCHES BY TUE 12Z WITH A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMS. THE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST WHILE MID AND LOWER VALLEY ONLY REACH THE LOW 90S.
/ISSUED 348 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW LVL /SFC-H85/ FLOW WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A S/W RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUDS TO LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD EXITING ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY SUNRISE. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE N PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIFT WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MAINLY MID 80S INLAND.
738 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND. COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND WITH 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WARM SEA WATER IS KEEPING TEMPS HIGHER. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE ANCHORED JUST TO THE NORTH AND BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
605 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE ANCHORED JUST TO THE NORTH AND BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD OF THE REGION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT THRU TONIGHT. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID TEMPS IN DROPPING INTO THE 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUES. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THEN AFTER 14/23Z BECOMING NW 10-20 KTS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND COLD FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 140W 42N AS OF 0830Z. WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FORECAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BECAUSE THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS JUST ONE PART OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST.
633 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 Low level southerly flow will continue to increase today across central IL as surface and upper level high pressure ridge axes move off to the east. with highs reaching the low 80s west of I-55 and the upper 70s to the east. In the shorter term, high pressure ridge builds over the east coast of the country and southerly flow continues into the region.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPED EVEN COOLER THAN YESTERDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
722 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
610 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 The primary forecast concern over the next several days will be the potential for isolated nocturnal convection as the LLJ continues to strengthen and shift eastward ahead of developing lee-side low pressure in the High Plains.
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 229 PM CDT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
1247 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
829 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
645 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 QUESTION THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND WHEN TO START MVFR MORNING CEILINGS. WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE AND NOT KNOWING HOW WIDESPREAD.
AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z DATA SHOWED A RIDGE OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM 700 MB UP THROUGH 200 MB. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR MIDWEEK. THEN A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.