Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A high pressure ridge will be moving east of the zones tonight and flow aloft will switch to the southwest. High pressure is currently over Central and Southwest Montana and the air mass will remain dry through the night. Moist southwest flow ahead of a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will bring moisture into the extreme southern portions of Southwest Montana Monday afternoon resulting in a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will dominate through Tuesday. A couple of weak disturbances will move through the ridge during this time. As snow levels drop to around 7000 feet Tuesday, some light snow may fall over the higher elevations.
Even though some of the high resolution models do hint at the possibility of light rain, model forecast soundings show that the dry airmass will likely be too much to overcome. /00Z TAF/ Water vapor satellite imagery showing a short wave trough moving into Texas from Mexico. Moisture is returning from the Gulf in the low levels but not enough to support low ceilings. /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ Another dry and pleasant afternoon is underway for Southeast Texas, with 2 PM CDT temperatures ranging from the mid 70s near the Piney Woods to the low 80s along the Upper Texas Coast. Otherwise, cloud cover and a gradual increase in low level moisture resulting in overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s (almost 10 degrees warmer than what was observed this morning).
If so it would produce some modest to at most moderate east winds below the lower gaps in central mt chain, including KABQ vicinity, with any gusts remaining below 25kt.
1133 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 The cold front progression has reached near a line from Springfield to Champaign. Overnight low temps look to settle out in the low to mid 40s, based on nearby upstream temps/dewpoints. Little to no cloud cover will continue through tomorrow, under advancing high pressure. Cold front currently crossing the Mississippi River into west- central Illinois will swing through the area late this afternoon into the evening. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 40s. while highs on Monday reach the lower to middle 60s. Canadian high pressure area will sit across the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday with dry and cooler weather. Out in the western plains a system will be developing and have a warm front that will extend toward the area.
More showers will come into our CWA from the southwest Monday night and Tuesday as a surface cold front and Pacific upper trough move inland. Cooler Tuesday.
625 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance High pressure has migrated southward and now resides over the Gulf Coast states. This has allowed our winds to shift to southwesterly and warmer air has been able to move into the region. We are running 10 to 15 degrees warmer at this hour then we were yesterday. On the surface charts, a weak cold front is poised from a low pressure in Wisconsin and trails southwestward into IL, MO and KS. This low will quickly move southeastward the rest of today and into tonight, dragging the cold front through our region. Behind the front, a cooler Canadian air mass will filter into the region in association with a strong high pressure system.
Winds have turned around to the northeast, and low temperatures tonight should be a few degrees warmer than the previous couple of nights, generally in the mid 40s and 50s over the interior, and from the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. High pressure will hold north of the waters, with east to northeast winds continuing. The pressure gradient will tighten up Tuesday through the second half of the week as the high pressure strengthens, causing wind speeds to increase.
903 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Tranquil weather conditions dominate the fcst region this evening beneath an upper level ridge and light zonal flow aloft. As this ridge slowly migrates eastward overnight should see winds aloft turn southwesterly. Upper ridge remains over the area through Monday. With slightly warmer air off the ground, temperatures should still get to near what we have this afternoon. With the low/mid level air moistening a little from the west there could be just enough instability for a few light showers over the mountains in the late afternoon. There is southwesterly flow aloft Monday night, then a weak upper trough moves across the CWA early Tuesday.
While the mid and upper levels have moistened quite a bit, the low levels remain too parched for precipitation at the TAF sites. In addition, the low level wind field appears to be too weak to support rapid transport of moisture this far north. The lower levels of the atmosphere should result in rain-free conditions, though virga may result in some light to moderate turbulence in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. With upper ridging building in early this week, the only change the next 48-60 hours will be an increase of humidity to go along with warm and breezy conditions with highs in the lower 80s.
1258 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Little change in weather through the TAF period as high pressure continues to dominate.
With high pressure moving in and light winds, it is always tricky to nail down clearing trends after dark.
The low level fgen and system relative isentropic ascent is forecasted to spread west to east from the Saginaw Valley to Port Huron between the 23-02Z timeframe. Center of weak low pressure pushing across the DTW terminal will bring a period of variable wind this evening becoming northerly between 03-05Z. Very strong lift occurring north of the track however moisture is quite limited with very dry air in the lower and mid levels. High pressure behind the departing wave will bring clearing trend Monday starting from far southern counties to the Thumb region by evening.
/Issued 312 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ Northwest upper flow relaxes through the period but remains sufficient to push a re-enforcing cold front through by late in the day Monday.
634 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 With high pressure over the region, the weather remains quiet. Only thing that may keep temps up just a tad is the higher dewpoints/higher low level moisture over the area. High pressure will move off to the east on Monday, with increasing southeast winds through the day. Will then be watching precipitation move into the region on Tuesday as low pressure ejects into the central Plains.
High pressure over the eastern United States will control Indiana weather through Thursday. The high is forecast to gradually move east, allowing a cold front to cross our state Thursday night.
1046 AM PDT WED JUN 29 2016 The persistent upper level ridge responsible for the current warm conditions will begin to weaken Thursday and into this weekend leading to increasing westerly winds and eventually moderating temperatures back to near normal temperatures. 12Z KOTX upper air sounding data is no suprise that the atmosphere above is warmer than it was 24 hours ago by a degree or so C. The exception may be a few places in the Cascades in and near the lower gaps where marine air from the west side is moving throught and will work against the heating and keep those spots a few degrees cooler.
The cooler and pleasant conditions continue overnight with winds becoming southeast as the high shifts east. Thinking precip will stay close to the forcing from the upper level trough and cold front. Thinking north central IL will see slightly cooler temps and struggle to get out of the 70s tomorrow due to increased cloud cover. Guidance consistent with well defined short wave trough dropping southeast through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region Thursday night. Then, as this low and associated front continues east, expect this precip to swing east through the remaining areas in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana through the late evening.
412 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Main concern for tonight and Thursday will be a weak cold front sagging south from Canada. This band will then continue southeast Thursday morning, with the highest coverage likely to be over western WI and far eastern MN. Clearing skies will quickly follow for Thursday evening as high pressure brings drier air in. This will lead to warmer temperatures each day locally with light southerly flow also bringing increasing moisture.
340 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 A weak upper level trough axis along with some difluence in the upper level pattern will keep higher than normal chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow. For the remainder of the forecast area, some weak negative vorticity advection on the western side of the trough axis and the growing influence of a ridge axis across the Southern Plains will allow for some slight drying of the mid and upper levels due to sinking air aloft. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages in the lower 90s.
Temperatures will also fall in the afternoon a couple degrees with lake breeze boundaries and a cold front moving through. An upper trough moving through late Thu will lead to showers and thunderstorms exiting eastern Upper Michigan by late Thu night. A cold front crossing Lake Superior late tonight through Thursday will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest over the east half.
315 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Amplified longwave pattern across North America with a deep trough northeast and strong ridging over the western states. Cold front over the Western Lakes Thursday morning will begin to spread some high clouds into Northern Michigan as it approaches.
Cooler and a more shower filled day with deep upslope to 700 mb, limiting instability.
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
(Issued 924 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 from NWS Jackson) A cold front is now firmly south of the region with slightly cooler and drier air working south from the Tennessee Valley.
119 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Decaying upper ridging will exit to the SE today, allowing for mostly sunny skies and increasing return flow from the SW.
Strong subsidence from the ridge has lead to clear skies which will carry through tonight as well. The high will drift eastward through the Ohio Valley tonight allowing for light southwest flow on Thursday. This will allow for weak moisture return into lower Michigan, but the main surface front is still locked to our south across TN/KY blocking the deeper moisture from returning. A strong mid level low sinking south into Ontario will send a trough and cold front through the region late Thursday night. This cold front will warrant continued chance pops across the area from mainly 06-12Z as current models are showing a frontal passage around 12z.
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
315 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 18z SFC analysis shows a dome of high pressure settling into the area from the northwest. This is bringing a drier air mass into the state along with some cooler temperatures.
If convection can hold together long enough to make it into Corson county, it is timed to move into the county within the hour, and timed to reach Mobridge by shortly after 7 PM CDT. Tonight, a strong Canada-sourced cold front /near the international border/ will sweep southward across the northern plains, including this cwa, wringing out any available low level moisture through Thursday morning. The Rapid Refresh model is also continuing to imply some of this low level moisture is converted into post-frontal mvfr/vfr stratus which advects into the cwa between 09Z and 15Z Thursday. Thursday, the cold air advection noted in the 925hpa and 850hap thermal progs lends support to forecast high temperatures only in the mid 70s across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota to the low/mid 80s over central South Dakota.
At the surface, high pressure over IL/IN today will drift east and stretch from Middle TN to western PA tomorrow. Forecast soundings continue to look stable in the TN Valley tomorrow afternoon, and slightly warmer 850 mb temps should result in highs a degree or two warmer than today. Convection today has stayed along and east of the Blue Ridge, but the NAM shows the axis of instability and boundary layer convergence with the lee trough taking a slightly westward shift tomorrow.
Temperatures will also fall in the afternoon a couple degrees with lake breeze boundaries and a cold front moving through.
307 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Pressure ridge into our region producing fine summer weather across the Midsouth with moderate humidity and temperatures for this time of year under plenty of sunshine. Ideal summer weather for late June thanks to 500 mb trough located across the Eastern US.
213 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
An upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest is translating east and is helping to drive northwest flow aloft across Northeast Montana.
533 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure through Thursday.
611 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight.
The cooler and pleasant conditions continue overnight with winds becoming southeast as the high shifts east. Thinking precip will stay close to the forcing from the upper level trough and cold front. Thinking north central IL will see slightly cooler temps and struggle to get out of the 70s tomorrow due to increased cloud cover. Although with cooler air advecting south/southeast late Thur aftn/eve, and modest steepening to the low/mid level lapse rates, it is conceivable that POPs could indeed become likely for a short period of time. Expect clouds to slowly become mostly cloudy late Thur aftn, which should allow surface temps to reach at least 80 to the lower 80s.
344 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Current surface analysis places cold front sagging southward near the international border with low off towards northeastern Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with low over southwestern Hudson Bay, bringing northwest flow to our area. Weak short wave trough sliding through western North Dakota continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in area of enhanced instability where deep layer shear is also elevated a bit. Cooler airmass settles in which will bring below average temperatures to the area.
High pressure continues to be the predominant weather pattern across interior northern California. Temperatures, as of this afternoon, are running a few degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Cooling trend is expected late this week, as an upper trough develops along the Pacific Northwest.
115 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure over the area will help keep pleasant weather through Thursday with relatively cool temperatures and low humidity. Pleasant weather with low humidity can be expected today with a high pressure system over the region. A few daytime clouds should dissipate early tonight, allowing one more cool night with lows in the lower 50s. The high pressure system will move east Thursday allowing return flow to begin; however, moisture return will be very limited.
133 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure over the northern Great Lakes will build over the local area through Thursday evening.
At the surface, an area of low pressure was located along the Colorado Front Range. Thunderstorms have developed over the Rockies ahead of this trough. For tomorrow, a cold front should push south across the region. As a result of the front and likely extensive cloud cover, cooler temperatures are forecast. Thinking the highest chances for thunderstorms (in the afternoon) will be along/west of a line from Benkelman, Nebraska to Tribune, Kansas.
331 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central WY, with frontal boundary extending south-southeast along the lee of the Rockies and into southwest KS. Upper level analysis shows ridge remaining over the Rockies region, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. Slightly cooler air will settle into at least northern portions of the cwa on Thursday as a weak front to the north slides south into the area.
Surfacre ridge overhead will provide East to Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph across the region, becoming light and variable overnight. Thus, will let the current forecast ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
617 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
158 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Weak high pressure centered over the Mid West will build over the southern Appalachian region through the late work week. A slow moving cold front is expected to become stationary across the western Carolinas this weekend.
347 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure through Thursday.
330 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will push east through the region today through tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday.
Finally, may see a sort of repeat of this morning tomorrow morning with lingering moisture and ridge that is only beginning to build into the area. Updated the high temperature forecast to reflect slightly cooler guidance and 12Z soundings from Lake Charles and Corpus Christi. Heat index values will remain in the low to mid 100s this afternoon.
212 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
247 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 The latest SPC mesoanalysis of CAPE clearly shows the highest values across the southern tier with 2500 to near 3000 J/KG of energy to work with. Given fluctuation in trough axis anticipated. BDL The eastern trough will hold through the end of the week.
143 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with comfortable humidity for the rest of today and Thursday. Based on this cloud cover, temps were blended/nudged toward cooler 12z nam/gfs lamp guidance and trimmed by up to several deg F from previous forecast values. Temps reaching the lower 80s across the Lower Susq Valley will be out about 2-4 deg F shy of normal. Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime.
357 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over Minnesota and central Iowa.
124 PM PDT WED JUN 29 2016 Hot inland today as high pressure over the Four Corners region begins to weaken.
1128 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center to slowly shift to the southeast towards TX during the next 24 hours, making for some erratic movement of showers and storms. High pressure over NM will mostly confine thunderstorms to the higher terrain of western and northern NM today.
/issued 250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days. Area radars show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.
1259 PM PDT WED JUN 29 2016 A large high pressure ridge prevail over the Great Basin for the remainder of the week.
329 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days. Area radars show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.
/issued 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning. The high will continue to bring drier air into the region. A cold front was located from northeast Georgia through central Mississippi and into north central Texas at this time. High pressure was centered over north central Illinois. This high will keep things dry across the forecast area today. Temperatures will be cooler than they have been over the past few days with highs from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The high will remain over the Ohio Valley region tonight and Thursday which will keep dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
Weak upper troughs will bring a slight chance of showers at times.
A ridge is keeping showers and thunderstorms capped across most of the region west of Highway 93, but east of Highway 93 some towering cumulus can be seen on area web cams, which matches well with short term model forecasts for some isolated thunderstorms later this evening. Tomorrow an approaching trough from the Gulf of Alaska will cause the ridge to start to flatten out, allowing more thunderstorms in the Bitterroot and west of Highway 93.
244 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 The 19z surface analysis indicated that the cold front was moving through central Alabama well south of the forecast area. A large area of high pressure centered over the Ohio valley region was filtering in drier and cooler air into the Tennessee valley region. The ridge of high pressure is progged by the short term models to shift eastward through the lower Ohio valley region to the mid Atlantic coastal region by Thursday afternoon.
441 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight.
342 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) An upper ridge currently over the southern Rockies will move southeast into West Texas by late Thursday, which will result in dry conditions across West Central Texas the next 24 hours. With the ridge west of the area, we remain in northwest flow aloft, which would be favorable for activity to make a run at our far northern counties towards evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with highs on Thursday in the lower and middle 90s. Upper level high pressure will move across the Southern Plains late this week, shifting all the way over the Southeast US by the weekend.
102 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 At H5 strong high pressure over desert southwest with ridge extending into western Canada. Gulf of Alaska low sending waves underneath ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Trough over the Great Lakes.
402 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will build in tonight with dry air, then stays into Thursday night.
658 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
Convective activity should dissipate overnight, but another weak trough and moisture is forecast to move through southwest MT, bringing scattered -SHRA vcnty KBZN/KHLN early Thurs morning.
Current surface analysis places cold front sagging southward near the international border with low off towards northeastern Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with low over southwestern Hudson Bay, bringing northwest flow to our area. Weak short wave trough sliding through western North Dakota continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in area of enhanced instability where deep layer shear is also elevated a bit. Cooler airmass settles in which will bring below average temperatures to the area.
206 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure over the area will help keep pleasant weather through Thursday with relatively cool temperatures and low humidity. Water vapor imagery depicting upper trof over the NE US with ridge over the mountain west. Return flow on backside of the high will see temps moderate on Thursday with highs near 80.
148 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Boundary layer moisture quality and mid-level cooling is evidently a bit better than expected behind a weak cold front, and showers and storms have formed well north of what was previously expected. With the front expected to stall and a broad 500mb trough forecast to remain in place over the region for Thursday, POPs have been increased a bit and expanded northwest.
639 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 /12Z TAFS/ Upper level high pressure will result in a continuation of VFR conditions across the terminals the next 24 hours. /issued 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Dry and hot weather will continue again today with the upper level high centered overhead.