Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another upper low follows suit, reaching the Colorado plains by Tuesday. Clearing over the area has steepened the lapse rates, while southeast surface flow helps increase forcing via orographic lift along the Pine Ridge. Overall, blended in slightly warmer guidance for min temps across the board to account for clouds, southerly winds, and weak WAA at H85. Maintain status quo for Tuesday with the rain showers and unseasonably cool temps, especially with the upper low moving directly over the Sandhills.
Forecast soundings indicate that drier air will infiltrate the lower levels today, which will help to limit rain chances this afternoon. East to southeast flow will continue to allow for above normal temperatures and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s over the next few days. High pressure centered near Bermuda is what will primarily influence our weather for the time being. As this high pressure moves to the east, winds will gradually decrease. An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the southeastern U.
1151 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A cold front has cleared the area early this afternoon. Given the low level northerly flow, it tends to be difficult to clear out low stratus in these situations, therefore cloud cover will likely stick around for most of the night.
Through the overnight hours, cloud cover is expected to diminish as Canadian high pressure drops further south. For the day on Monday, continued high pressure means mostly clear skies, until an afternoon cumulus field develops. With the dry high pressure system still in the vicinity, the eastern CWA looks to get rather low with the RH Tuesday afternoon, with readings falling to around 20 percent. As the high begins pushing eastward slightly by midweek, we get into southerly return flow, with RH remaining fairly low over the far east - around 25 percent.
A ridge will move into the area tonight. Dry conditions expected through much of the week, as well as warmer temperatures.
The short and medium range guidance suggest the remnants of the low to middle frontal zone will briefly support a period of enhanced isentropic lift and saturation of moisture northward into southern sections of the WFO PAH forecast area this afternoon. High pressure will then become re-established as the channeled vorticity moves south and brief mid-level ridging builds across the area tonight and Tuesday. Some model differences come into play Tuesday night, as guidance tries to resolve the interplay of a slow moving trough in the intermountain west with the slightly amplified southwest flow in the southwest U. (supporting northward moisture advection into the lower Mississippi Valley) and a stubborn, slow moving closed low shearing out from the western Great Lakes.
320 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Long wave troughing across the northern Great Lakes and Upper Midwest with an embedded mid level low across nrn Ontario and Lake Superior will sustain the resident cold airmass across the region for a few more days. The upper low over Lake Superior is forecast to shear as it drops south into Lower Mi late tonight and Tuesday. It will however result in the passage of sharp mid level trough axis overhead on Tuesday. This will again result in a chilly early-mid May day Tues with highs limited to the low to mid 50s and overnight lows Tues night down in the 30s.
232 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Early this morning, scattered midlevel clouds are very slowly increasing across the area, but temperatures have already plunged into the low to mid 30s across central and north-central Nebraska. After this cold start, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through the day as we see continued 500mb vorticity advection ahead of the trough over the Rockies. This will limit high temperatures to the high 50s to low 60s. Tonight, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than this morning thanks to increasing cloud cover. Coverage of light rain will be on the increase, though, as the upper trough moves out of the Rockies and through the central Plains.
A humid and warm start to our Monday with near 70 temperatures in multiple locations as high pressure stretching over the Peninsula moves east.
128 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Broad troughing extending from the Great Lakes to the Canadian maritimes will continue through this period. The associated upper level low is currently near James Bay and through this period, the low is progged to dip southward to just east of Lake Superior by tomorrow afternoon as ridging to the west over central Canada expands over the top of the low. With our forecast area remaining under the influence of this low, expecting more of the same for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow. The traditional colder spots could dip into the low 20s.
1217 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Still dealing with convection in the vicinity of the LFK terminal attm and cannot rule out renewed convection through the predawn hours closer to the cold front itself which attm is straddled west to east near the I-20 Corridor.
Nevertheless, areas of frost are still possible as temperatures continue their fall into the lower to mid 30s so will hang onto the frost advisory. Temperatures will again dip down into the low to mid 30s tonight, perhaps for the last time that temperatures get to near freezing, and with the light winds and clear skies am expecting areas of frost to develop. Both the NAEFS and ECMWF ESATs show that this high pressure system is climatologically in the 99th percentile, so have bumped up highs a touch to get closer to the 75th percentile to account for this.
Today Through Tuesday Night A cold front over far southern AR continues to slowly sink south this morning with rain and thunder now well removed from the area. Flow aloft will remain largely zonal through the period with troughiness confined to the central and northern Plains. Precipitation coverage will expand by Tuesday and Tuesday night as another mid/upper level trough moves across the Plains.
Isolated strong storms this afternoon across the far east, A cold front has pushed southward across the northern half of the forecast area today.
Quiet weather for the next couple of days with cooler than normal temperatures continuing. Cool northerly surface flow on Monday with highs into the lower 60s. Tuesday may see a chance of showers across southeast NE, but most of the area will probably stay dry with highs again in the lower 60s.
405 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure builds into the region through mid week with below normal temperatures persisting. Weak theta-e and positive vorticity advection will help initiate a few showers in the lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon and evening hours. The combination of increasing clouds and the lower theta-e airmass positioned over the region means another afternoon with temperatures well below normal. For now, have kept patchy frost across the northwest counties where clearing and cooler winds are most likely to occur in combination.
An upper level trough will push off the Rockies today. The strength of this high will also play a role in how quickly rain pushes out of the region.
Isolated strong storms this afternoon across the far east, with A cold front has pushed southward across the northern half of the forecast area today.
This cool air is present thanks to northerly flow brought in by a cut-off low over the Great Lakes/Ontario area off to our northeast.
Observations this morning show drier air advecting in behind a surface cold front across eastern Middle TN.
Models continue to show a line of showers and storms moving southward as a cold front moves through overnight and stalls, but it's still doubtful how well these storms will be able to form. The cold front will meander over SE Texas Monday, and could bring a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as daytime heating ramps up.
418 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Below normal temps will prevail across the Midsouth through late week, under zonal flow aloft and the southern periphery of midcontinental surface pressure ridge.
A cool start to the morning with temperatures running roughly 10 degrees below normal in the lower 40s. Upstream cloud cover will overspread the CWA during the morning hours, and with weak CAA expect another cool day with highs only reaching the lower 60s.
Meanwhile, a Western CONUS upper-level trough will progress eastward across the Rockies and into the Central Plains Tuesday.
1010 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Just by looking at the local Doppler KMLB radar on loop this morning, you can tell where the ridge is extending from the central Atlantic towards the Treasure Coast. This ridge will slightly shift south today changing the wind flow from the SW over land this afternoon. As a ridge extends from the central Atlantic, winds over the east central FL coastal waters will be from the S/SSW.
With dew points in the lower 70s, yet another sticky Monday afternoon is surely on tap. High pressure centered near Bermuda will gradually slide eastward through the middle of the week, allowing east to southeast breezes to slacken and to generally moderate levels.
A cold front has pushed south into northern portions of the forecast area with temperatures dipping well into the 50s over the upper Delta region. Meanwhile, an outflow boundary induced by prior convective systems has set up roughly along the Highway 84 corridor where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s. Farther north, particularly along the I-20 corridor, there is uncertainty with how much destabilization can take place ahead of the synoptic cold front as we go into the afternoon.
Early this morning, scattered midlevel clouds are very slowly increasing across the area, but temperatures have already plunged into the low to mid 30s across central and north-central Nebraska. After this cold start, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through the day as we see continued 500mb vorticity advection ahead of the trough over the Rockies. This will limit high temperatures to the high 50s to low 60s. Tonight, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than this morning thanks to increasing cloud cover. Coverage of light rain will be on the increase, though, as the upper trough moves out of the Rockies and through the central Plains.
515 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across central Canada into then Northern Plains. Elongated upper trof located across the Rockies into the central plains will result in diurnal shower activity today and Tuesday. Thermal profiles support rain/snow mix for the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
530 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Upper ridge and high pressure will be moving through the region over the next few days. This will bring warmer and dry conditions to eastern Montana. Other than some patchy river fog early this morning, generally clear skies are expected with high pressure over the region.
401 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 With the H5 trough slowly dropping southeast across ID/UT, westerly flow ahead of it across CO will be inducing lee cyclogenesis there. As the trough moves east tonight into Tuesday, the region transitions to a NW flow, reducing the snows on the Winds, while bringing some snow to the Big Horn range. as the cold pool moves east with the trough, some recovery will be noted Tuesday, with highs back in the 50s and low 60s, albeit with mostly cloudy skies continuing. There will be a ridge to the west of Wyoming, with northwest flow across the state.
651 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure builds into the region through mid week with below normal temperatures persisting. Weak theta-e and positive vorticity advection will help initiate a few showers in the lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon and evening hours. The combination of increasing clouds and the lower theta-e airmass positioned over the region means another afternoon with temperatures well below normal. For now, have kept patchy frost across the northwest counties where clearing and cooler winds are most likely to occur in combination.
346 AM PDT Mon May 10 2021 Cooler weather will continue today with high temperatures near to slightly below average.
617 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A large area of high pressure over South-Central Canada will move gradually south to the Mid Mississippi Valley through the week ahead, bringing generally fair and dry weather and a slow warming trend. A few week upper level disturbances and surface cold fronts will drift southeast across the Great Lakes and could bring a few showers across mainly the Northern and Western Mountains of the state on Tuesday. Weak-Moderate low-level cold advection, in the wake of low pressure near Cape Cod, will help to create plenty of ridge top low stratus and stratocu elsewhere this morning. Max temps this afternoon ranging from the L50s across the northern Mtns and Laurel Highlands to the Lower 60s in the SE zones will be around 10-12F below normal.
641 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A trough will linger across the central Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will then sweep across the region on Tuesday.
Warmer conditions and lighter winds arrive on Tuesday, lasting through the remainder of the week. A weak trough will be on the move through the northern Great Basin today, into Colorado tonight. The mid-level trough axis officially clears our CWA late this evening. Expect another round of gusty west-southwest winds ahead of the trough axis through much of the day, especially over the eastern zones. Cooler air aloft over the northeastern zones will allow for one more day of generally flat CU development. By Tuesday, ridging pushes into Arizona from the EPAC and daytime temperatures will rise above normal as a result, along with less wind.
517 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A large area of high pressure over South-Central Canada will move gradually south to the Mid Mississippi Valley through the week ahead, bringing generally fair and dry weather and a slow warming trend. A few week upper level disturbances and surface cold fronts will drift southeast across the Great Lakes and could bring a few showers across mainly the Northern and Western Mountains of the state on Tuesday. Weak-Moderate low-level cold advection, in the wake of low pressure near Cape Cod, will help to create plenty of ridge top low stratus and stratocu elsewhere this morning. Max temps this afternoon ranging from the L50s across the northern Mtns and Laurel Highlands to the Lower 60s in the SE zones will be around 10-12F below normal.
Today through Tuesday night: An area of low pressure centered over central Idaho will result in another day of isolated to scattered showers. Coldest temperatures aloft will be closer to the center of the upper level low in the southern to central Idaho Panhandle.
605 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 With the H5 trough slowly dropping southeast across ID/UT, westerly flow ahead of it across CO will be inducing lee cyclogenesis there. As the trough moves east tonight into Tuesday, the region transitions to a NW flow, reducing the snows on the Winds, while bringing some snow to the Big Horn range. as the cold pool moves east with the trough, some recovery will be noted Tuesday, with highs back in the 50s and low 60s, albeit with mostly cloudy skies continuing. There will be a ridge to the west of Wyoming, with northwest flow across the state.
Much cooler and drier conditions are in place this morning thanks to a strong mid-May cold front. Various observational sites are currently in the low 40s across southern IN to low 50s across southern KY. Widespread stratus blankets much of the region, but drier air is working into the low levels and has started to erode the stratus across southern IN and portions of northern KY this morning. Canadian high pressure will slowly slide into the northern Plains and upper Midwest today. Clockwise curvature around the high will keep our winds out of the north and northeast, and afternoon highs will only climb into the low and mid 60s. Residual upper troughing is expected at the beginning of the period but the flow looks to be come a bit more zonal toward the middle of the week.
BT Upper low has split, with western portion over western MT and eastern trof moving rapidly across the northern plains. Blocking high over Saskatchewan means the evolution of the low in our area will be slow over the next couple days. Given the upper low and coldest air aloft to our west, upslope easterly winds, and dry advection in our east (afternoon dew points in the 20s).
750 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Flat ridging resides aloft the Gulf of Mexico region today as Atlantic high pressure resides across FL and out over the Gulf. Atlantic high pressure across the waters continues into midweek with southerly winds and afternoon sea breezes. A cold front with showers and thunderstorms trek through late in the week with winds shifting to north and northeast.
622 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure builds in across the eastern forecast area today. The upper pattern features a decaying upper low with a high to the north. This decaying low will drift east, but at the surface, broad high pressure across the eastern CONUS will provide a fetch of cool, dry air.
A nearly zonal flow was over the southern and central Plains with a trough across the northern Plains early this morning.
A ridge of high pressure will produce dry and warmer weather across Western Washington through much of the week.
420 AM PDT Mon May 10 2021 Quiet weather continues for today with an upper level ridge building over the region. A thermal trough will also set up along the coastal range and expand northward throughout the day. Both of these features will allow temperatures to trend 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Throughout this period, an upper level closed area of higher heights persists over The Pacific Ocean at between 30 and 40 degrees north latitude and 130 to 140 west longitude with the associated upper level ridge reaching northward through the Canadian Yukon Territory. It is along the leading edge of this ridge that trofs move southeastward through the pattern into The Treasure State. The next trof favors a short-lived, wide spread precipitation event beginning Tuesday around noon and continuing into the late afternoon/early evening hours.
406 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 This morning have a flat ridge across the southern half of the country with an upper low over ID. A weak trough extends southward from this low. This trough will cross the Rockies Tuesday and move onto the plains late in the day.
Long wave troughing across the northern Great Lakes and Upper Midwest with an embedded mid level low across nrn Ontario and Lake Superior will sustain the resident cold airmass across the region for a few more days. The upper low over Lake Superior is forecast to shear as it drops south into Lower Mi late tonight and Tuesday. It will however result in the passage of sharp mid level trough axis overhead on Tuesday. This will again result in a chilly early-mid May day Tues with highs limited to the low to mid 50s and overnight lows Tues night down in the 30s.
The trough responsible for cooler and showery conditions in the Northern Rockies this weekend will continue on Monday, although most of the moisture has moved off into Colorado. Also, scattered showers will continue mainly for southwest Montana, Lemhi County, and the higher terrain of central Idaho. Tuesday the trough stretches into Colorado and Kansas, leaving the Northern Rockies in a weak northwest flow.
Warmer temperatures are on the horizon with a milder trend from late week through the weekend. Previous Discussion Issued: 517 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Weak-Moderate low-level cold advection, in the wake of low pressure near Cape Cod, will help to create plenty of ridge top low stratus and stratocu elsewhere this morning. Max temps this afternoon ranging from the L50s across the northern Mtns and Laurel Highlands to the Lower 60s in the SE zones will be around 10-12F below normal.
Also not confident in coverage of TSRA today, although HOT/ADF carry the highest probability, so included VC mention with activity most likely by and after 10/17-18Z. Today Through Tuesday Night A cold front over far southern AR continues to slowly sink south this morning with rain and thunder now well removed from the area. Flow aloft will remain largely zonal through the period with troughiness confined to the central and northern Plains. Precipitation coverage will expand by Tuesday and Tuesday night as another mid/upper level trough moves across the Plains.
527 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions for much of the week. Dry conditions expected today with high pressure back in control.
/issued 406 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/ This morning have a flat ridge across the southern half of the country with an upper low over ID. A weak trough extends southward from this low. This trough will cross the Rockies Tuesday and move onto the plains late in the day.
935 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A trough will linger across the central Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will then sweep across the region on Tuesday.
Looks like breezes and cooler temperatures return over the weekend. Upper trough over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies will slide southeast through Utah and the central Rockies today and Tuesday. Models show a stronger vorticity center rotating through base of trough over northeast Nevada this afternoon and evening.
The cold front that moved through the area yesterday was more or less stalled out over our far southern counties. Otherwise, we'll see much cooler temperatures today with low level east-northeast flow prevailing.
854 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 A cold front has reached the I-59 corridor and will continue to push south. Temperatures are in the lower 50s in southern TN to lower 60s near I-59 to Cullman County. Another chilly night for this time of year, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, close to 10 degrees cooler than normal. Despite clouds and higher rain chances, high temperatures should warm into the lower 70s.
Quiet weather continues for today with an upper level ridge building over the region. A thermal trough will also set up along the coastal range and expand northward throughout the day. Both of these features will allow temperatures to trend 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Today through Tuesay night: An area of low pressure centered over central Idaho will result in another day of isolated to scattered showers. Coldest temperatures aloft will be closer to the center of the upper level low in the southern to central Idaho Panhandle.
Cold front located across the area this morning is resulting in light, shallow rain showers in the vicinity of all sites. Observations this morning show drier air advecting in behind a surface cold front across eastern Middle TN.
Satellite imagery shows ridging to our west and troughing to our east.
/issued 418 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/ Below normal temps will prevail across the Midsouth through late week, under zonal flow aloft and the southern periphery of midcontinental surface pressure ridge.
850 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 (Issued 850 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021) Mid level trough still yet to swing through with very cold temps aloft (-29c). Lows in the lower 30s are expected in most areas. High pressure moving into the region Tuesday will bring quiet weather and light winds.
300 AM PDT Mon May 10 2021 Breezy north to east winds and seasonable temperatures can be expected today behind a modest cold front.
931 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and below average temperature for much of the week Temperatures. Dry conditions are expected today as dry air/high pressure slowly clear stratocu NW to SE.
TFJ Upper ridge and high pressure will be moving through the region over the next few days. This will bring warmer and dry conditions to eastern Montana.
By tomorrow, high pressure will build into the area and bring main sunny skies and warmer temps to the region through the remainder of the work week. Model simulations are showing an upper trough to the northeast of the state. High temperatures are anticipated to be in the 50s and 60s, though some of the warmer locales in central Nevada could see readings in the low 70s. For Tuesday, rising heights from high pressure building into the area will help to bring plentiful sunshine and warming afternoon temperatures.