Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
On Thursday, high pressure moves off to the east and southerly flow increases behind the departing high. With the southerly flow and WAA, temperatures and dewpoints will be on the rise with highs in the 80s to near 90 near the Buffalo Ridge with dewpoints rising into the 60s.
/issued 623 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ A slow moving cold front over north Mississippi will continue moving southward tonight before dissipating on Thursday. A strong upper ridge will be centered over the Rockies over the next several days while a weak trough extends from the north into the SE US.
High pressure anchored north of the area will maintain a similar condition into Thursday, with late day diurnal cu development limited and remaining high based. Large scale trough sweeping through the Great Lakes region with main embedded upper level PV anomaly/cold pool (-19 C at 500 MB) approaching Eastern Georgian Bay late today, allowing for the low level moisture axis/front to drop south. Mostly upper level northwest confluent flow will allow for large area of high pressure to build in through Tomorrow night. Amplified upper level ridge established over the Rockies will hold through the weekend.
557 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Canadian high pressure north of Lake Superior will build across the entire Great Lakes region through the first half of the weekend to guarantee fair dry weather to end the week. Daytime highs will generally settle in the mid to upper 70s, with low 70s across the higher terrain areas.
The warm temperatures will continue indefinitely as as strong high pressure dominates over the Great Basin.
911 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A weak cold front will drift east through the area overnight gradually pushing south of the area Thursday before dissipating at the end of the week.
1029 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Currently - The weak western fringe of an Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a large upper level low is centered over the eastern Bahamas and the western flank is beginning to spread into our eastern zones. While the upper level low is not likely having a significant impact on local weather, there is increased lower level moisture. Short Term Update - The ragged westernmost reaches of the Atlantic ridge will anneal overnight as the residual effects of day time heating dissipates. Expect overnight lows to be generally in the lower 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. A ridge across Florida along with nocturnal cooling will result in light and variable breezes becoming light east to southeasterlies.
High pressure ridge located over the four corners region will continue to shift eastward while monsoonal moisture works northeastward across the region throughout the afternoon.
Expect daily showers and thunderstorms through the weekend across parts of northern Arizona, especially in the high country.
(Rest of tonight) A slow moving cold front will continue moving south over the forecast area tonight, as can be seen by the steady drop in dewpoints across Tennessee. This will keep dewpoint depressions between 0-2 degrees through the morning hours across much of the area despite the cold front moving through.
A slightly cooler air mass will sink in from the north overnight, allowing for areas of fog to develop, especially at locations that received more substantial rain this evening.
Lacy (Thursday through Wednesday) The upper ridge will begin to expand across the Southern Plains tomorrow and into the first part of the weekend.
/issued 354 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ A slow moving cold front over north Mississippi will continue moving southward tonight before dissipating on Thursday. A strong upper ridge will be centered over the Rockies over the next several days while a weak trough extends from the north into the SE US.
858 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A cold front sinking southward through the area will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to parts of central and southeast Illinois through tonight.
Heights aloft weaken over the region as the ridge slightly moves west on Thursday.
Vertz While a strong ridge remains in place across the Northern Rockies, the axis is far enough east that the area is under southwesterly flow. Thursday should be cooler behind the weak disturbance today, which will knock 5 to 10 degrees off the highs. Reimer In general, upper ridging will prevail over the area through the period.
Cloud cover will continue to gradually erode, as high pressure settles over Lk Superior. An upper- level wave evident on water vapor imagery will continue to slide across southern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes tonight as ridging pivots into the upper Midwest. High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis: Troughing vacating the Great Lakes will pivot over New England to close out the week, placing upper-level subsidence squarely over the Great Lakes.
Our region will remain on the east side of a broad upper level ridge over the western half of the U. At the surface, high pressure currently centered near the western Great Lakes region will gradually be sliding east, moving over the northeastern U.
639 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains beneath the northwesterly flow between an upper trough over the Great Lakes/SE Canada and a ridge building across the western CONUS. In the lower levels, there is a weak cold front extending from lower Michigan into northern IL and IA, with high pressure south of the front centered over Missouri.
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A cold front will slowly drop into the area and bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to parts of central Illinois late this afternoon through tonight.
914 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 (Issued 914 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022) High pressure over Lake Superior will expand across the wrn Great Lakes through Thu. Gehring (Issued 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022) Tonight and Thursday: High pressure will bring mostly clear skies tonight and Thursday. Lows tonight will be cooler than the last couple days with lower dewpoints continuing to move in. Highs tomorrow will be a couple degrees shy of normal values inland and a bit cooler near the lake under onshore winds.
(Today) Sharp gradient in low level moisture currently resides along the eastern periphery of the forecast area, and as sfc ridging relaxes today, this moisture will quickly return north and westward. Daytime temperatures continue to trend toward the warmer side of guidance and the combination of bias adjustments and expected moisture return yield heat advisory criteria across SE OK today.
The trough over the Great Lakes will dampen, and high pressure will build in over the northern Gulf towards the end of the forecast period, allowing for more isolated to scattered coverage of precipitation.
Generally dry and quiet conditions expected through the short term period with a continued pattern of upper level northwesterly flow as upper level ridging remains locked into the Rockies.
Northerly flow around the high draws significantly drier air back into the region as dewpoints fall to around 50. This drier airmass keeps the area dry today despite a final PV anomaly rounding the upper trough into lower MI. Main impact of the upper trough instead will be cooler than normal temperatures with highs topping out in the upper 70s to near 80. Primary issue is the surge of enhanced theta- e/moisture with this wave holds west of Lake Michigan with the resident dry airmass (dewpoints only in the low to mid 50s) still firmly in place over SE MI. While a ridge running MCS is possible, instability gradient across MN/WI/IL appears to favor a more southerly track of any MCS which would mostly miss SE MI to the west.
We remain in northwest flow between an upper level high over the western U. and troughing in the east. Friday looks to be a few degrees hotter than today with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
High pressure still not overhead. High pressure finally gets overhead on Friday after many days of waiting. However, the intense summer heat will largely remain to our west beneath a strong upper level ridge over the SW United States.
155 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into northeast CO with a weak low over northwest NE. Combination of afternoon highs/Td/s in the low/mid 60s paint heat indices from 100-105F over south-central SD so will hoist Heat Advisory this afternoon/early evening. Focus will likely be across the higher terrain in the west, then moving across the CWA in the evening.
The area is in a bit of a post frontal set up with weak ridging aloft.
1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (Rest of tonight) A slow moving cold front will continue moving south over the forecast area tonight, as can be seen by the steady drop in dewpoints across Tennessee. This will keep dewpoint depressions between 0-2 degrees through the morning hours across much of the area despite the cold front moving through.
A 5960 dm high pressure center over the Rockies will continue to keep the area hot and mainly dry throughout our Thursday as we will have south to southwest winds increase during the day to 15-30 mph. Tonight there won't be much relief from the heat as winds will stay out of the southwest and the heat ridge itself creeps eastward.
Urban areas and areas under cloud cover across southern IN and northern KY however remain in the lower 70s. Moving through today, upper level trough that is currently centered over the Lower Great Lakes region will lift to the northeast as broad upper ridging centered over the Desert SW gradually expands eastward towards the OH Valley, resulting in rising heights through the period. A strong upper level ridge will be centered over the Rockies and central Plains Friday, but noses eastward a bit more into the Ohio Valley. Though more SCT cloud cover will be drifting in from the northwest, 1000-850 mb thicknesses support warmer temperatures on Friday. Opted to go a couple degrees warmer than NBM in some spots, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Most of the cwa will be dry today with highs ranging from the lower 80s at Freeport, IL to about 90 at Memphis, MO. While the models are highly varied on the track of the convection, the upper ridge to our west should allow for activity to build south / southwestward with time Thursday night, and with the veering LLJ aimed at our region Friday morning, we should see a reasonably high chance for elevated storms, which may continue to refire and move southeast through the day.
At the surface, the front/trough is situated across north GA. NListemaa Forecast period starts off with at least some limited pops in parts of the north as the upper trough energy looks to have enough of a push to shift the moisture axis and lingering front a bit farther south for Friday.
On Thurs, mid-upper ridge slightly retreats to the nw and an inverted trof makes its way toward the area from the east. Combination of this, higher moisture levels, upper disturbances passing along the periphery of the ridge and seabreeze/outflow boundaries.
Today Through Friday Night This morning, persistent upper ridging is centered over the Four Corners area with steep northwest flow aloft over the south-central CONUS. The center of surface ridging remains offshore in the Atlantic, yielding broad easterly flow locally. This may be a result of gradually increasing subsidence as the upper ridge slowly expands east again. With the brunt of upper ridging still to our west, temps today will generally be close to what was observed yesterday with highs in the 90s, although southern sections will see lower 90s thanks to some increased cloud cover. Through the remainder of this week, rain moves away and temps begin to climb into the mid/upper 90s again as the upper ridge continues expanding east.
A stray wet storm or two are also possible, primarily over the higher terrain and near the eastern edge of the CWA where PWAT values are indicated to be slightly higher.
Mid-level ridge across the region will begin to break down as a TUTT begins to move westward over the Bahamas and towards the Florida peninsula today.
1109 PM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 The upper ridge over the Rockies and High Plains region today expands across the Plains states on Thursday and Friday with a short wave trough moving through the apex of the ridge from the central to the northern High Plains Friday night. Confidence in scattered thunderstorms moving out of the Rockies and across the plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska is higher as the surface and upper troughs move across the region.
410 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the first half of the weekend bring mainly dry and fair weather. Isolated showers across the region early this morning, as the main upper level trough axis remains just to the west of our region. Once any fog burns off this morning, mainly dry and fair weather is expected as high pressure starts to build into the region under the broad upper trough positioned across the region. Clear and calm conditions expected tonight, as the upper level disturbance moves eastward and high pressure continues to build in from the Great Lakes region.
Upper pattern this period features strong upper ridging over the western Atlantic and the central Rockies, with upper trough over the eastern U. Slightly cooler air aloft supporting somewhat steeper lapse rates, plus dry air aloft, could support locally strong downdraft winds from the more intense storm cores that develop.
407 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over northern Wisconsin will bring light winds, mostly clear skies and temperatures a little below normal today.
The Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, has been cancelled.
and Friday Canadian high pressure will continue to bring plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures to the region today, with highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s inland, and lower to middle 70s lakeside. Dry conditions will persist through this evening, but the approach of an 850 mb warm front and a developing 30 to 35 knot LLJ will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms to the southwest part of the forecast area overnight.
118 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure continues to build in tonight and on Thursday with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Water vapor satellite shows an upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region with northerly flow aloft over West Central Texas. With the expected shower/storm activity this afternoon, the increase in clouds that comes with it, and likely numerous cool outflow boundaries being produced by stronger storms, the high temperature forecast is a little more difficult. With the still strong 850 mb thermal ridge over us, still think there'll be enough sunshine in the morning through mid-afternoon for temperatures to reach 99 to 104 degrees across the forecast area before the aforementioned clouds/outflow boundaries cool things down a little.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 69 92 70 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 90 68 91 / 10 0 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 90 67 90 / 10 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 63 87 64 86 / 10 0 10 10 30.
Tonight Through Friday An upper ridge continues to be centered over the Rockies, northwest flow across the central part of the country, and an upper trough over the Great Lakes. The upper trough will continue to move east to the east coast by Friday. The upper ridge will expand eastward late Thursday and Friday.
1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A few showers will remain possible overnight as a cold front stalls out over the region. A Cold front sinking southward through the area has brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to parts of central and especially east-central IL. Otherwise, lows look to be in the lower to mid 60s, with the warmest readings near Jacksonville to Lawrenceville, and coolest along I-74. A cold front will slowly drop into the area and bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to parts of central Illinois late this afternoon through tonight and tomorrow morning. Temperatures tonight should drop into the lower 60s in the east to the upper 60s in the far west.
As a large ridge over the western CONUS starts to expand into the lower Mississippi Valley, our 500mb heights will start to nudge up in response, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures.
Highs will be a little warmer on Friday in the north as there will be a touch more sun.
253 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over the region has brought the region a clear and calm night, with lows dipping into the 40s so far. High pressure will stick around today, support a mostly cloud free day with highs in the 70s, except mid- upper 60s by Lake Superior, and afternoon lake breezes. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will influence the pattern for the majority of the forecast period with Upper Michigan on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
350 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 An upper level trough is currently across the far western Dakotas, with a few showers and thunderstorms seen on the regional radar.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just east of the Four Corners or thereabouts, and this is forecast to shift ESE into northeast New Mexico over the next 48 hours.
Canadian high pressure will then build across the entire Great Lakes region through the first half of the weekend and guarantee fair dry weather to end the week. The large-scale synoptic trough axis will finally swing through the region Thursday. A few pop-up showers will be possible as it comes through, though expansive high pressure building across the entire Great Lakes region will help keep the majority of the forecast area high and dry. Temps will dip into the 50s, with upper 50s near the lakeshores and low 50s up on the higher terrain, a few 40 degree readings not out of the question.
Upper air models show upper ridge over the lee side of the Rockies, that will slide over the northern plains today and Thursday. Upper ridge flattens somewhat by Friday, but remains stagnant over the region through the weekend as the upper High sits over the four corners region. A strong outflow boundary/trough will push into NE WY tonight and bring a period of gusty NW winds.
Today and Tonight: Most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa has cleared out nicely this afternoon with temperatures reaching the lower 90s. At 500mb, a large-scale ridge is centered in the Four Corners region with a trough located in eastern Canada.
440 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the first half of the weekend bring mainly dry and fair weather. Isolated showers across the region early this morning, as the main upper level trough axis remains just to the west of our region. Once any fog burns off this morning, mainly dry and fair weather is expected as high pressure starts to build into the region under the broad upper trough positioned across the region. Clear and calm conditions expected tonight, as the upper level disturbance moves eastward and high pressure continues to build in from the Great Lakes region.
939 PM PDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Breezy winds and dry conditions today will elevate fire danger, especially for the grasslands of the lower Columbia Basin and valleys in the lee of the Cascades. The arrival of an upper level trough by the end of the weekend may bring breezy winds and a few mountain showers. Precipitable water is slowly eroding away with the highest values in the central ID Panhandle. Thursday we will be under the influence of broad southwest flow with the ridge centered over AZ/NM/CO area.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in the NW mtns to the mid 60s across the Lower Susq Valley, which is near to a couple of degrees above normal.
Storms are expected to develop near and ahead of a sharpening surface axis and the high terrain out west.
1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains beneath the northwesterly flow between an upper trough over the Great Lakes/SE Canada and a ridge building across the western CONUS. In the lower levels, there is a weak cold front extending from lower Michigan into northern IL and IA, with high pressure south of the front centered over Missouri. Clouds associated with the MCS will likely keep Friday's temperatures from getting much warmer than what we're expecting tomorrow.
An upper level ridge persists over the southwestern CONUS with another upper ridge over the western Atlantic, essentially keeping the local area within a weak flow pattern aloft. By Friday, the upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS begins to build slightly west which will bring a little bit of drier air into the region, and especially into northwestern portions of the area. Temperatures will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few areas reaching the lower 90s. Lows each night are expected to range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
210 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 A chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening north of I-70 as a secondary cold front moves through the area.
Upper-level ridging to the west will begin to flatten out, putting the area into a west flow pattern. Even with those more favorable parameters to the west, models are tending to favor the highest precipitation amounts being in Wisconsin.
1154 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A drier and more stable environment will encompass southeast Michigan this taf period as high pressure builds across the northern great lakes. Large scale trough sweeping through the Great Lakes region with main embedded upper level PV anomaly/cold pool (-19 C at 500 MB) approaching Eastern Georgian Bay late today, allowing for the low level moisture axis/front to drop south. Mostly upper level northwest confluent flow will allow for large area of high pressure to build in through Tomorrow night. Amplified upper level ridge established over the Rockies will hold through the weekend.
359 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will build into the area today. This high will move off to the east by the end of the week.
Upper ridging will become more amplified over the weekend with hot and dry conditions expected.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to move into northern Arizona through the rest this week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. Weekend storm chances are still substantial over northern Arizona, especially for the higher elevations.
258 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over the region has brought the region a clear and calm night, with lows dipping into the 40s so far. High pressure will stick around today, support a mostly cloud free day with highs in the 70s, except mid- upper 60s by Lake Superior, and afternoon lake breezes. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will influence the pattern for the majority of the forecast period with Upper Michigan on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Even warmer temps will arrive to start the work week with some seeing highs near 100. The heat will really start to build on Thursday with the high pressure drifting to the east and winds turning more southerly. An expansive upper ridge will also start to expand on Thursday, pushing into our area.
(Today and tonight) Calm conditions are expected to continue through Thursday, as the upper level ridge continues to position itself over the region.
High pressure remains in control of the pattern for much of tomorrow, resulting in partly to mostly clear skies. Weak WAA resulting from south-southeasterly flow will lead to slightly warmer highs tomorrow in the mid 70s to low 80s. The best synoptic forcing associated with this trough will likely be located south of the area, with maxima of both omega and low-level FGEN being outside of the CWA. In addition, moisture in the low to mid levels will also be limited in the northern half of the CWA.