Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge was building over the Central Plains through much of the day today, which will continue to slowly trek east, centering over our forecast area overnight. Dew points are forecast to drop into the low 50s and possibly even upper 40s for some, which should reduce chances for fog development. Through the day, we will see increasing mid to high clouds from the west, as a wave over the northern Rockies begins to push east, pushing the upper ridge out of our area.
The cold frontal boundary has passed south of our area, and skies continue to gradually clear out from north to south across the region at this hour. Already seeing low to mid 60s dew points across our north and these values should find their way down to the low to mid 50s by the pre-dawn hours Thursday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate, so no rain in the forecast.
308 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with warm front extending south into western SD and central NE. Cold front stretches across far northwest SD to WY. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far eastern AB, with trough stretching south into the northern Rockies and southwest flow across the central Rockies into high Plains. Ridge has shifted east of the area.
Overall the next few days looking at mainly dry weather as an upper high builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley Fri/Sat.
Similar weather is expected on Thursday as a mid-level ridge continues to dominate our sensible weather.
High cirrus overspreading the ridge are encroaching on western Minnesota and will continue to increase from west to east across the forecast area overnight. The high clouds thicken through the day on Thursday, which will temper highs--especially in southeast Minnesota.
312 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Strong upper low over Alberta this afternoon will drift into Sask tonight. This has allowed cooler air to filter into the area and will continue into Thursday.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s, a nice break from the humid conditions we have felt lately! Dry weather will be the main story in the short-term portion of the forecast. However, dewpoints will be tolerable in the low to mid 60s and despite the mostly sunny skies, highs will only climb into the low to mid 80s.
The clouds and southeast winds have kept temperatures a little cooler this afternoon.
515 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with warm front extending south into western SD and central NE. Cold front stretches across far northwest SD to WY. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far eastern AB, with trough stretching south into the northern Rockies and southwest flow across the central Rockies into high Plains. Ridge has shifted east of the area.
A few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two could develop over the higher terrain given a bit of leftover elevated moisture, however PoP chances have been greatly reduced from prior forecasts.
as a weak cold front moving southward across the southeast United States allows low to mid level moisture to pool along and ahead of the front across portions of southern Louisiana.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s to low 50s tonight with highs Thursday in the low to mid 70s. Upper ridging will be on its way out over the course of the night hours as a decaying frontal system moves towards the region.
318 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Latest radar imagery showers showers and thunderstorms west of our area beginning to encroach upon the region, with current temperatures hovering in the low to mid 60s. Should see precipitation gradually begin to diminish from west to east heading into the evening and overnight period, as the sfc cold front departs the region. Otherwise, look for dry conditions and seasonably cooler temperatures to prevail during the holiday weekend. Heading into the new week, expect upper level ridging to build over the western CONUS.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry today with upper ridging suppressing shower and thunderstorm development. Lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line will bring southeast to south winds of 5 to 15 mph.
--Holiday weekend: Seasonal temps, occasional clouds/showers-- Broad upper trough over central Canada drifts slowly southeast in our direction over the Holiday weekend, with negative height anomalies developing for the second half of the weekend.
Sitting at the base of an upper-level trough, we are seeing deep, tropical moisture being advected from the Caribbean, across FL, and all the way up the Eastern Seaboard, contributing to the historic flooding occurring across the NE overnight. As the trough lifts off to the north, the associated surface boundary is likely to stall and slowly fall apart. As this occurs, the subtropical ridge should build back in.
345 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure will provide a rain-free forecast through the rest of this week, with noticeably cooler and drier air.
438 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Ridging overhead along with a very dry mid- to upper-level airmass in place is keeping even mid-level clouds at bay early this morning. With ample radiational cooling early this morning, temps have been able to dip into the upper 30s for a few typically-cooler spots. Don't expect a repeat tonight though as cloud cover moves in and moderates temps, especially in the west (so cooler in the east).
The overall upper pattern is defined by an upper low over northwest Arizona with its trough axis extending south into southern Arizona, and an amplified ridge of high pressure aloft over west Texas. The northern portion of the upper trough will continue to eject to the NE today as a more established mean trough currently over the Pacific Northwest digs south. The sheared out southern half of the ejecting trough will separate out, and slowly track east across central Arizona tonight. Drier air rotating along the southeast periphery of the upper trough will continue shunt the deeper moisture east this evening. The upper-ridge of high pressure over west Texas broadens out over the Southern Plains tomorrow.
5-2+" PWATs just upstream of our forecast area will progressively be squashed to our south as the overhead ridge flattens.
258 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure in the Upper Great Lakes and an upper-level ridge building into the Midwest has resulted in clearing skies and below average temperatures. While some daytime clouds are anticipated, dry weather continues today and northeasterly winds will limit highs to the lower half of the 80s once again. Low pressure is expected to form near southwestern Iowa to northeastern Kansas along with the development of a predominantly horizontal cold front across the Central Plains.
342 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 As the short term period begins, an upper level trough axis has cleared Georgia and is continuing to push eastward towards the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft is setting up on the back side the trough and ahead of a pronounced upper ridge currently positioned over the central CONUS. At the surface, a weak cold front extending from the remnants of Ida is moving southward through the forecast area. The northwesterly flow and influence of the upper level ridge will promote a drier and more stable airmass over north and central Georgia today and Friday. Minimal relative humidity values will fall into the low 40s with some mid 30s across SE GA. The upper level flow will gradually become zonal over the weekend with high pressure along the northern Gulf coast.
1102 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois through Thursday with dry, mostly clear skies, and slightly below normal temperatures. With the lowering dew points, temperatures are on track to fall into the mid 50s overnight. High pressure ridge extending from WI, through IA into MO/KS will continue to dominate the weather across the area through Thursday night as it slowly moves east across the state. A weather system will push toward the area during the end of the week as the ridge moves to the east.
428 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Ridging overhead along with a very dry mid- to upper-level airmass in place is keeping even mid-level clouds at bay early this morning. With ample radiational cooling early this morning, temps have been able to dip into the upper 30s for a few typically-cooler spots. Don't expect a repeat tonight though as cloud cover moves in and moderates temps, especially in the west (so cooler in the east).
Overall the next few days looking at mainly dry weather as an upper high builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley Fri/Sat. Although an upper air high moves in, the surface flow from high pressure is mainly northeast with lower dew points advecting into the region into Friday. This will allow for cooler nights with seasonably warm afternoons through Friday before the flow begins to turn around to the south.
75" even in the highest elevations and just enough rainfall to saturate some of the lower elevations (0. Building ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin late in the weekend promises to bring several days of dry conditions with temperatures climbing back above seasonal norms.
Look for another round of high temperatures in the lower 90s to lower 100s along with elevated heat index values of 104 to 108 degrees for the Rio Grande plains and along and east of I-35. While a few spots may briefly flirt with the lower end of Heat Advisory territory, we will hold off as these conditions should be short-lived and spotty. Southerly flow in the low- levels remains intact overnight, leading to warm and muggy conditions with lows in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. For Friday, the models show a weak inverted mid-level trough moving in from the east.
930 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Strong upper low over Alberta this afternoon will drift into Sask tonight. This has allowed cooler air to filter into the area and will continue into Thursday.
A rapidly weakening upper level impulse riding the periphery of the upper ridge will be accompanied by some gradually increasing mid and high level moisture tonight into Friday, so an increase in cloud cover is to be expected. Lows tonight in a decent radiational cooling environment should approach but not reach dewpoints owing again to the increasing high cloud, likely bottoming out in the low to mid 50s, although an isolated reading briefly dipping into the upper 40s isn't entirely out of the question depending on the thickness of the high cloud. The high pressure both aloft and at the surface will keep most of central Indiana dry early Friday night.
340 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Isolated convection has been maintained over far SE OK early this morning within a corridor of deeper moisture and slightly cooler mid level temps. Near persistent conditions expected Friday while convection edges closer to NE OK late Friday as ridging aloft flattens.
Today Through Friday Night A cold front was slowly advancing across the state, from northeast to southwest, during the predawn hours this morning. In the wake of the front, drier air will advect into the state dropping dewpoints into the lower/mid 60s for most areas. In the upper levels, ridging will strengthen over the region providing quiet weather conditions through the short term.
A slow-moving upper trough will maintain the cooler yet dry conditions through Thursday with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. The upper flow ahead of the trough will direct high-level smoke from wildfires primarily in northern California across the area through Thursday. An upper trough will linger over the interior NW through Thursday, releasing eastward on Friday. The closest precipitation threat will be over eastern Idaho as the upper trough intersects monsoon moisture streaming northward. Cooler than normal temperatures will accompany the dry conditions especially overnight, when the dry air mass allows for efficient radiative cooling. A more west- northwest flow behind the trough will thin the smoke on Friday, except across portions of the central Idaho mountains.
Upper trough over the southwest states today swings northeast into the central and northern Plains late tonight into Thursday evening as an upper low in southern Saskatchewan slides east. Precipitation should be ongoing across western Kansas by dawn Thursday and spread east through the day as the southern trough lifts through. The rapid moistening brings precipitable water levels above 2 inches by late afternoon in central Kansas with this high moisture spreading on east through the night as a surface front sags south to likely bisect the state and become parallel to the upper flow.
With mid level ridging sliding overhead on Thursday, we are not likely to see a repeat performance. Similar conditions are expected Thursday and Friday underneath mid to upper level ridging. Temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler with some slightly drier conditions which will keep heat index values near to just below advisory levels for most locations.
443 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend as high pressure remains across the Great Lakes. High pressure over northern Ontario will build south across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As the remnant low of Ida merges with the mid-level trough over New England and eastern Quebec late in the week, mid-level ridging will push across the central and eventually the eastern Great Lakes by the middle of the weekend.
322 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A cold front moves south across the area today with noticeably drier conditions and rain chances in general lowering from north to south through the day into the overnight. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today but still quite warm, in the lower 90s F and upper 80s F. The remnant circulation of Ida has helped to reinforce a trough axis to our east and the northerly flow behind this departing weather maker will result in seasonably deep frontal penetration.
427 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A cold front will exit east across the region by early morning.
and Friday Canadian high pressure brought mostly clear skies to the region early this morning, with patchy fog over north central WI. An upper level ridge will pass through the region today, and the Canadian high will start to edge eastward. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with most places reaching the lower to middle 70s. As the surface and upper level ridges shift east tonight, weak return flow will bring increasing moisture to the region. Low pressure approaching from MN is expected to weaken as it moves into western WI, and precipitation associated with this system will also diminish as it reaches the forecast area. Cloud cover will hold down temperatures, with highs only expected to reach the middle 60s west to the lower 70s east.
356 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Look for cooler temperatures today with widespread showers and thunderstorms. A cold front across northwestern ND will slowly advance eastward today brining some showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight may be quite cooler for some areas with 40s and 50s possible for most areas. Upper low well into Canada looks to swing a trough across the area on Friday. Otherwise look for continued cooler temperature for Friday, with perhaps a breezy at times west wind. Labor Day weekend then sees weak to flat ridging across the area.
416 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Geopotential heights are on the rise this morning as synoptic troughing over New England absorbs the remnants of Ida, amplifying and progressing east through the day. This gives room for sharp midlevel ridging to build in locally, the associated subsidence ensuring a very dry column and rising surface pressure. The ridge axis slides overhead tonight with winds becoming nearly calm. The 850mb thermal trough will have largely departed to the east by Friday, but thinking the increased cloud cover will counteract the warming potential to result in high temps tomorrow similar to today's forecast.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Through Thursday: It's a hot and humid day as moisture pools ahead of a cold front which is moving southward toward the area. /DL/ Cooler and drier air filters into the region behind the front, resulting in more comfortable conditions across the region. Overnight lows Thursday night/Friday morning will be the coolest temperatures in the forecast with lows dropping to the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will only climb into the 80s in most locations on Friday with the Delta most likely in the lower 90s.
An upper level ridge axis was located across the plains this afternoon with northwest flow over the area. The upper level ridge will shift eastward and into the area tonight into Thursday.
222 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A pleasant, seasonable night was unfolding across all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri with high pressure fully in control. Will note that per forecast soundings, there is a LOT of dry air to work through in the low-levels, so there is potential precipitation timing could be delayed a bit in subsequent forecasts. With this forecast, have maintained a fairly conservative forecast of around a quarter to half an inch of rainfall across the CWA, with this higher amounts favored to southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri.
The outflows along with a weak backdoor cold front which served as the primary focus for these shwrs and tstms, will continue to initiate more isolated activity through the remainder of the overnight hours.
/NEW/ /Through Sunrise Friday/ Thursday will once again remain fairly hot across the region as we continue to be under the influence of an upper level ridge. Over the last couple of days, the ridge has gradually migrated eastward across the Central and Southern Plains. /Issued 1256 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021/ /Friday Onward/ A stout mid-level ridge will be roughly centered along the Red River through the early weekend, keeping the local weather hot and rain free. We are currently projecting afternoon highs to be in the upper 90s to low 100s with heat index values in the low to mid 100s.
339 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Moderately strong northerly flow aloft exists across the Tennessee Valley this morning, in the gradient between a longwave trough over the Eastern CONUS and a strengthening mid-level high centered over the Red River Valley of TX/OK. Winds aloft will veer to the northeast and diminish over the course of the day as a ridge at the 500-mb level expands northeastward into the Mid-MS/Lower-OH Valleys, with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions anticipated for the local area. Highs will range from the lower 80s in elevated terrain to the m-u 80s in valley locations. Consensus guidance from the latest suite of global models continues to suggest that the Southern Plains mid-level ridge will become centered across eastern OK/western AR during the short term period, but should gradually expand eastward to encompass much of the Gulf Coast states.
1058 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Hot and humid conditions continue today through Thursday as a ridge remains over a majority of the forecast region.
/Issued 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021/ /Through Sunrise Friday/ Thursday will once again remain fairly hot across the region as we continue to be under the influence of an upper level ridge. Over the last couple of days, the ridge has gradually migrated eastward across the Central and Southern Plains.
311 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 An amplified upper trough currently extends across the Great Basin as an upper ridge extends across TX northward through the western Great Lakes. A cold front will advance eastward this afternoon, and will be an additional focus for thunderstorm development across eastern areas. Did keep temperatures warmest from 80-85 across the southwest where, warmer temperatures aloft to mix down. The next upper trough will move in on Friday,with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the western Sandhills. Chances increase Friday evening as the upper trough passes through.
For tonight through Friday morning, look for mostly clear skies as surface ridging builds southward across Eastern Conus. Some scattered fair weather cumulus may be noted by Friday afternoon with heating, but with upper ridging building across the southern third of the US on Friday, we should remain free from precipitation under subsidence. With the cooler flow, milder readings will be noted as well.
High pressure continues to be over the Upper Great Lakes again today with the 500 mb ridge axis in the Mississippi Valley. This should help us maintain a little warmer on the low temperature for tonight/Friday morning. As the 500 mb ridge moves into the region Tonight, the high clouds will make more in roads as well.
An upper level disturbance is forecast to track through WA producing a cooler northerly flow of air into our region overnight. Otherwise overnight low temperatures should fall into the 40s with 30s across the higher elevations and the present short term forecast appears on track.
240 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A cold front will exit east across the region by early morning.
1201 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A generally dry and stable north-northeast flow persists across the area this taf period as high pressure remains anchored over the northern great lakes. 58 inches/31 C dew pt depression at 700 MB), and even a little drier air looks to be backing down from Ontario this evening through Thursday morning, with the 850-700 MB Theta-E trough then more or less holding through Friday night. Mature upper wave/moisture coming out of the Four Corners region this afternoon, mostly dampening out and becoming absorbed in the southwest flow ahead of the longwave/positive tilted trough axis over the Pacific northwest into Central Canada Thursday-Friday.
Otherwise, winds remain light thanks to deep layer ridging centered over western Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The base of this trough is entering in the Florida Panhandle where a cold front is slowly pushing southeast at the surface. The aforementioned trough will continue to sink equatorward over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s to low 50s tonight with highs Thursday in the low to mid 70s.
They are taking awhile to get down here, but have begun working into/across the I-64 corridor already, where they are dipping into the lower 60s. The lower tropospheric flow out of the NNE should drag this drier air on down/across much of the remainder of the FA today, but may take into tonight to work its way fully across our southern and southwestern most portions of the CWA. That'll really feel nice with highs in the lower half of the 80s both Thursday and Friday. Models show a slow moving cold front approaching the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys Friday night.
Thus, lows are anticipated to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 70s south. Through Thursday morning, the upper trough that once extended down into the southeastern CONUS will push eastward as an upper ridge (over the central CONUS) builds west over the region. This upper ridge will continue to build further into the region through Friday. Lows Thursday night will then be a bit cooler than we've seen recently due to northerly flow ushering in drier air into the region. Lows will therefore be in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10 and in the lower 70s south.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 61 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 58 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 58 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 53 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 10.