Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Other areas are also below freezing with similar temperatures. Otherwise, look for highs to start on a warming trend for this afternoon as we settle into the low to mid 60s.
An area of light snow impacting southeast MN and northeast IA into far western WI will quickly slide to the southeast prior to sunrise as an upper level trough swings south across the Upper MS Valley. Skies will clear with strong subsidence in the wake of the trough passage setting the stage for mainly sunny skies for a time today. Similar to early today, another upper level trough will swing southeast tonight with one more round of light snow likely. A system coming onshore from the northern Pacific will cause the persistent western ridging to retrograde off the West Coast.
Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday so far this morning, but wind speeds around 10 mph have led to widespread wind chill values below -20 degrees across western and central Minnesota.
CAA slides down this morning as low pressure continues trekking southeastward across MN and WI. Cold high pressure moves south by this afternoon, which will likely prevent temperatures from recovering much east of I-29 - with highs remaining in the teens and 20s. Near the MO River, however, expect 850mb and 925mb WAA moving in ahead of mid level ridging to allow highs to warm into the 40s by the afternoon. Winds shift direction through the day as aforementioned high pressure slides through. Could see some very light accumulations (a tenth or two at most) near the Buffalo Ridge; however, given lack of moisture, would venture to say accumulations are fairly unlikely.
High pressure over the region will bring a couple more days of very warm and dry conditions with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal through Monday.
Pattern change begins Monday bringing cooler temperatures along with a chance of mainly foothill and mountain showers.
312 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Skies remain mostly clear as our CWA remains under the influence of a high pressure ridge sitting to our west. This warming trend will continue into the early part of the work week and the flow becomes more robust with the breakdown and flattening of the ridge, as a closed low crashes into the Pacific Northwest on Monday.
537 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022 At 09Z, a cold front had advanced through northern KS, while a warm front extended back to the northwest across the western NE panhandle and far southwest SD. This will advance a warm front east today across most of western NE, with a cold front associated with the clipper system dropping into southern SD late this afternoon. For tonight, another cold front drops through the area. On Monday, southerly winds increase across the area to 15 to 25 mph central and west, with the higher gusts to 30 mph across the western Sandhills. With cooler air recycled back into the area, temperatures will still be mild, but will range from around 40 northeast, to the upper 40s to lower 50s west and southwest.
High pressure then rebuilds offshore, keeping the region open to the influence of a few disturbances through the week that will maintain clouds and some rain chances at times.
Winds will be light in most areas except the high terrain and highlands of eastern NM where gusts near 20 kt are possible btwn 20Z and 02Z.
High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions with temperatures well above average into early this week.
Much Cooler Temperatures Arrive Tonight and Last Through Early. So while the highest rain chances are expected this morning and early afternoon, there still could be some additional development of showers along the main cold front this afternoon (only carrying 20% rain chances after 1 PM). Freezing temperatures are not expected and ground frost is unlikely given the persistent breeze and incoming dry airmass (lowering dewpoints).
428 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Skies remain mostly clear as our CWA remains under the influence of a high pressure ridge sitting to our west. This warming trend will continue into the early part of the work week and the flow becomes more robust with the breakdown and flattening of the ridge, as a closed low crashes into the Pacific Northwest on Monday.
Gusty winds at KGLS should diminish this morning as high pressure builds into our area today. This will bring slightly warmer, moist air into our area throughout the night.
354 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Synoptic Overview: NW flow aloft will persist over the High Plains in this period. between a deamplifying ridge over the western CONUS and a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS.
Sfc ridging to our northwest attm will move ovhd with mostly variable winds today near 5 to 10 mph. /Today through Monday/ Very chilly start to our Sunday Morning where subfreezing temperatures were observed everywhere across the Four State Region as of 2 AM with the exception of the Shreveport Regional Airport as we have a little heat island effect going on locally.
This trough will continue to progress into the lower Great Lakes Region by midday today. At the surface, low pressure will track from northern Missouri into southern Illinois, bringing light snow chances on the northern fringes of the system. High resolution guidance continues to pinpoint that the highest snow totals will be roughly from a Macomb to Charleston line where about 1" of snow is possible. The low will quickly push east of the area later today, bringing an end to snow chances by this afternoon or early evening.
This will bring slightly warmer, moist air into our area throughout the night.
/issued 211 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022/ Area of light rain spreading over west central at this time ahead of a cold front currently approaching north Florida. The cold front will push across the Florida peninsula today with light rain ending from north to south through the morning hours across the nature coast. Canadian high pressure will build over the forecast area in the wake of the front late today and tonight with much colder drier air advecting across the region on gusty north to northwest winds. around 40 to the lower 40s central. Highs Monday will only climb into the lower 60s north.
Another round of scattered snow showers will develop this afternoon and evening as an upper trough transitions over the region. Snow will diminish from west to east after midnight as the trough axis moves east of the forecast area. Any snow accumulation should be limited across lower elevations with higher amounts along the ridges with orographic enhancement.
Temperatures today are expected to increase into the low to mid-60s over much of the region.
After a cold start to the morning with lows in the 20s, temperatures will rise back to near normal this afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 60s in most locations. Winds will be much lighter today around 10 to 15 mph, making for some excellent grilling weather! South to southwesterly sfc flow will keep temperatures from sinking too far overnight, especially across the eastern CWA where lows should remain above freezing. Upper ridging over the southwest U. This will promote an ewd expansion of the mid lvl thermal ridge and further warming across our region.
For the best chance for the highest snowfall (around KBRD), the NBM 90th percentile for snowfall with this system peaks around 2.
The upper level trough axis swings through the area today, but given a very dry airmass not expecting anything other than a few high clouds. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will setup with temperatures dropping quickly after sunset down into the low to mid 20s. Upper level heights will increase on Monday behind the departing trough. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 50s on Monday. The low-level ridge axis will shift to the east Monday night with a return of southerly flow.
316 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022 At 09Z, a cold front had advanced through northern KS, while a warm front extended back to the northwest across the western NE panhandle and far southwest SD. This will advance a warm front east today across most of western NE, with a cold front associated with the clipper system dropping into southern SD late this afternoon. For tonight, another cold front drops through the area. On Monday, southerly winds increase across the area to 15 to 25 mph central and west, with the higher gusts to 30 mph across the western Sandhills. With cooler air recycled back into the area, temperatures will still be mild, but will range from around 40 northeast, to the upper 40s to lower 50s west and southwest.
Strong high pressure will remain over the area through Monday with record or near record heat.
High pressure will maintain dry and mild conditions through Monday.
Speeds of 10 to 15 knots will be common, with higher gusts (especially in the higher terrain). Today Through Monday Night Early this morning, a frontal boundary was located in the Plains, with high pressure to the southwest of Arkansas, centered over north Texas.
Dry and warm conditions are expected over Montana today as the upper ridge slides across the state. As this wave dives south it will phase with a trof in central Canada, pulling colder air into northeast Montana, and spinning up a lee low over south central Montana. Upper trof rotates eastward through the end of the week, with Montana still in the northwest flow.
Today Through Monday Night Early this morning, a frontal boundary was located in the Plains, with high pressure to the southwest of Arkansas, centered over north Texas.
A brief period of mid level ridging works in this afternoon into early this evening before the next pocket of energy draws closer. It appears this system will have a little better forcing in the lower levels as evidenced by a weak trough and a little more in the way of 925/850 frontogenesis.
222 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a north-northwesterly flow aloft as the CWA is underneath the back part of a trough with a ridge over the western CONUS.
Expectations of a slightly drier sfc airmass and much less resultant fog are holding this AM (problems near Osborne Bridge along US-20 in Fremont County only), with the HREF/HRRR/NBM all supporting status quo again for Mon AM, so we continue to leave fog out of the forecast for most areas with our eyes trained on the Mon eve/Tue system.
218 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Anticyclonic northwest flow aloft exists over our region, downstream of strong ridging along the Pacific coast. A 42 mph gust was observed at Big Timber where the temp also rose to 43F (a sign of warmer temps coming today). Heights will fall steadily tomorrow as north Pacific trof drops into the PacNW, resulting in a flattened ridge as it shifts east.
252 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 High pressure over the region will bring a couple more days of very warm and dry conditions with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal through Monday.
This is typical of summer patterns when a thermal trough retreats inland and warmer southerly air pushes up from the south in the marine waters, which helps create a layer of stratus. That stratus is covering small parts of the coast this morning and is a sign that today with be cooler compared to yesterday. However, high temperatures will remain on the warmer side inland. As for snow, we'll see snow accumulation around 3 to 6 inches in the high Cascades with the highest totals farther to the north. With a strong cold front accompanying this system, we'll see snow levels start out around 4500 feet before falling down to 3000 feet behind the front.
upper ridge nudges slightly eastward resulting in rising heights across CO. This will bring some warming to the region, especially for areas where westerly flow spreads down into the adjacent plains into the deepening surface lee trough. Otherwise, not much changes made from model blends elsewhere, with 50s to around 60 across the remainder of the plains, 40s to around 50 for the valley locations, and 20s and 30s for the high country. Winds will become breezy across the high country and adjacent eastern slopes in the afternoon but not expecting gusts over 25 to 30 mph. For tonight, expect continued clear skies and warmer lows along the lower eastern slopes, where westerly drainage winds continue overnight.
A mid/upper level wave rotating through a larger scale eastern CONUS trough will approach from the northwest.
High pressure will remain over the region today, leading to generally sunny skies and stable atmospheric conditions. An upper level trough and associated cold front is expected to move through central Idaho Monday afternoon, then slide through western Montana Monday evening. The best dynamics with this system slide through central Idaho as the trough cuts off and moves southward.
Meanwhile, as the upper level eastern CONUS trough progresses eastward, zonal flow will begin to take hold aloft over the region through Monday.
Upper ridge along the coast will continue current weather in our area through Monday morning, i. A strong upper low currently moving across the Gulf of Alaska will turn southeast into WA and OR Monday, then weaken Monday night as it moves through our CWA and then into NV. Current forecast already has the higher QPF, but for consistency we have increased PoP in eastern OR beginning late Monday, but mainly in southwestern Idaho Monday evening. Some fog development likely overnight, especially for the lower Treasure Valley, including KEUL and KONO.
311 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 Thundery rains pushed through the Florida Keys this morning, accompanied by a brief-ish blast of stout northerly breezes and sharply cooler temperatures.
That's a substantial difference from last year when the high in Omaha was only 1 below zero.
Think it is worth noting, however, that despite having decent saturation in the lowest levels, am not expecting there to be much in the way of accumulations as QPF values remain scarce. Mostly sunny skies during this time should also allow highs to gradually warm, with temperatures forecast to range from the upper teens across SW Minnesota to the low 30s in areas west of the James River.
1100 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Updated Aviation High pressure over the region will bring a couple more days of very warm and dry conditions with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal through Monday.
High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week.
For tonight, expect clear skies, light winds and warmer temperatures with overnight lows mainly in the 30s.
1142 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022 At 09Z, a cold front had advanced through northern KS, while a warm front extended back to the northwest across the western NE panhandle and far southwest SD. This will advance a warm front east today across most of western NE, with a cold front associated with the clipper system dropping into southern SD late this afternoon. For tonight, another cold front drops through the area. On Monday, southerly winds increase across the area to 15 to 25 mph central and west, with the higher gusts to 30 mph across the western Sandhills. With cooler air recycled back into the area, temperatures will still be mild, but will range from around 40 northeast, to the upper 40s to lower 50s west and southwest.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 53 30 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 47 27 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 23 48 26 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 41 23 54 32 / 10 10 0 0 0.
The first is ongoing as a trough moves through today. Flurries will again be possible in the I-64 corridor and Evansville Tri-State, while the higher probabilities will be just northeast of the forecast area. Later in the day on Monday, high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic will help steer southerly flow along the Mississippi River Valley.
1050 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Synoptic Overview: NW flow aloft will persist over the High Plains in this period. between a deamplifying ridge over the western CONUS and a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS.
124 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Synoptic Overview: NW flow aloft will persist over the High Plains in this period. between a deamplifying ridge over the western CONUS and a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. Main focus for this part of the forecast will continue to be the trough moving onto the Plains mid week.
As the trough continues progressing to the east, the gradient over the island chain and coastal waters should weaken and a brief lull in winds are expected this afternoon and evening.
226 PM CST Sun Feb 13 2022 The short term forecast is highlighted by scattered snow showers later this afternoon through the evening, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures on Monday. Early this afternoon, our steady northwest flow aloft pattern continued, with an exiting closed low over the Great Lakes region and troughing deepening off the coast of British Columbia. At the surface, a low was centered over southwestern Manitoba, with a warm front extending south and cutting through central North Dakota as of 20 UTC. Expect lower winds but cooler temperatures on Monday in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the single digits east to around freezing in the southwest.
A similar scenario at the surface will take place tomorrow although the trough will likely stall near the KS/OK border.
1014 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Skies remain mostly clear as our CWA remains under the influence of a high pressure ridge sitting to our west. This warming trend will continue into the early part of the work week and the flow becomes more robust with the breakdown and flattening of the ridge, as a closed low crashes into the Pacific Northwest on Monday.
The majority of snow from this morning has exited the area, except for the far southeastern James River Valley, but additional scattered snow showers are possible later this afternoon and this evening as a cold front sweeps through.
915 AM PST Sun Feb 13 2022 Another day of warm and dry conditions with most locations a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday.
The low level flow turns southwesterly ahead of this feature on Monday morning, sending lake snows back in again one more time.
Overnight lows across the area drop down into the lower 20s.
Overall, the best chance of seeing accumulation of an inch or more through 12Z will be along the ridges with an upslope assist, as well as near the PA/OH border due to influence from the mesolow. Continued northeast CONUS troughing will keep cold air locked in during the day, with highs some 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The broader upper trough pulls off to the northeast starting Monday night, with quasi-zonal mid-level flow taking control.
High pressure remains the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee today.
223 PM PST Sun Feb 13 2022 Pattern change begins tomorrow bringing cooler temperatures along with a chance of mainly foothill and mountain showers.
High pressure over the western CONUS continues to push northwest flow over the area. Warmer air is expected to move into the Panhandles, however there is a subtle wave that looks to bring a very weak backdoor cold front to the northern and eastern Panhandles. Lows Monday night will be a bit warmer with upper 20s to low 30s possible.
A weak upper level short wave trough will provide some cirrus over southern portions of the forecast area later tonight. With light winds, expect lows in the lower 30s from the inland coastal plains to eastern Brush Country. Could see freezing temperatures again in drainage areas near the Frio River watershed. Weak onshore flow will lead to warmer temperatures Monday, especially over the Brush Country where highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
637 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 Cold high pressure will remain over the area through Monday. Rain chances will increase with onshore winds as high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast and a cold front approaches from the west late in the week. Temps will drop in CAA overnight, down just below freezing most places. Local area will remain at the base of mid to upper trough as strong high pressure builds down from the Canada into the upper Midwest.
338 PM CST Sun Feb 13 2022 Looking aloft, the east conus trough axis from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley continues to drift east, while ridging builds over much of the west CONUS.
Tomorrow will see cold conditions with highs in the single digits above zero as arctic high pressure moves into the area.
941 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, colder air will continue to spill into the region.
helping to push a warm front into our far western counties where temperatures have been able to warm into the mid 40s. Behind the warm front. expect temperatures to warm across most areas to start the week as high pressure aloft nudges across the local area in response to an upper level low diving south across the west coast.
Besides the winds, well-above average temperatures are expected Monday as a shallow upper-level ridge shifts eastward over the Rockies.
739 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Added some low-end POPs in the northeast and east tonight to account for light snow or flurries accompanying the backdoor cold front. 97 Ridge begins to break down Monday as an Inland Slider system moves off the Pacific and drops south over Great Basin. At the same time a trough will move by to our north through Canada.
354 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Upper level ridging will be breaking down over the next 24 hours as Pacific energy heads onshore.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): 500mb ridge across the western United States will continue to provide subsidence across the state tonight. high pressure across south Texas tonight will move eastward Monday allowing an onshore flow to develop along the lower Texas coast. Low temperatures will reach near freezing across eastern portions of the northern ranchlands for at least an hour by Monday morning.
northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the next 24 hours as high pressure aloft builds into Colorado.
220 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 The advertised mild day has arrived across the area as a sfc trof crossing the region has brought strengthening westerly to northwesterly downslope flow to nern WY/wrn SD.
Almost fall - like temperatures are observed across the area this afternoon as temperatures slowly warmed through the 50s area-wide on winds that ranged from light over the lower plains counties - to moderately breezy and downslope over the southwesternmost areas. The upper split flow pattern over the CONUS will be weak and zonal locally over the central Plains Monday and Monday night, which may increase the high level cloudiness.
Today and tonight will be the last 24 hours of the Northern Rockies being dominated by the ridge of high pressure. A fairly significant low pressure system will dig southward over western United States causing a cold front to push across the Northern Rockies Monday afternoon and evening. The timing of the front should cause some minimal impacts to the valleys for the majority of region as road temperatures appear to be above freezing.
With high pressure and a dry air mass across the forecast area, expect VFR conditions through the period.
225 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Ridge begins to break down Monday as an Inland Slider system moves off the Pacific and drops south over Great Basin. At the same time a trough will move by to our north through Canada.
However, it will still be a rather chilly night with lows in the low to mid 30s across the Nature Coast and low to mid 40s across the I-4 corridor and points southward.
217 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Upper level ridging will be breaking down over the next 24 hours as Pacific energy heads onshore.
Much Cooler Temperatures Arrive Tonight and Will Last Through. The initial cold front moved swiftly through the area late this afternoon, now positioned over the Bahamas and past the FL Straits. Northwest winds will steadily increase overnight to 10-12 mph which will lead to wind chills reaching the lower 30s in coldest locations (which remains above Wind Chill Advisory criteria). VFR conditions quickly returning as the cold front exits beyond south FL this evening.
731 PM CST Sun Feb 13 2022 A frontal boundary is currently positioned over portions of eastern Arkansas This cold front is expected to continue to move through the Mid-South through this evening.