Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are heating up into the lower 90s over parts of Kansas south of the outflow boundary. WV imagery over the last 12 hours was showing little progression has occurred with a ridge situated over the eastern half of the CONUS with an upstream trough over the western half.
High pressure in place over the northwest Gulf will support light to moderate southeast winds. /issued 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have warmed into the Lower to mid 90s across the region. Aloft, high pressure over the southern Mississippi River Valley is forecast to build south and westward toward our neck of the woods through the period. With high pressure at the surface building in across the Gulf expect winds to be less gusty (even less than today) on Saturday.
As low pressure moves across Quebec and high pressure starts to build into the northern Great Lakes on Saturday, the front which has been lingering north of our area will begin to push into our area.
An upper level low will be positioned near Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia through the weekend.
The convection is associated with an upper trof that is beginning to push into the region. /issued 323 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ A warm afternoon is underway across the region, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s and heat indices in excess of 100 degrees at some locales. Afternoon convection will again be possible tomorrow as the upper trof remains in place over the region. However, its presence will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the past several days, with highs on Saturday only reaching the mid 80s across portions of west Tennessee.
Weak troughing pattern continues over NorCal with near to slightly above normal temperatures this afternoon and Saturday.
352 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Clear skies this morning have given way to scattered cumulus over the higher terrain with isolated showers over the Flat Tops and eastern Uinta Mountains this afternoon. Lows Saturday night will be near or a little warmer than those forecast for tonight.
Also seeing some cool, dry air fetch overnight with high pressure nosing into the region. Otherwise, new development is already occurring out west with lift from the next short wave trough coming in.
607 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 With the subtropical ridge building in over the state, the TAFs are turning to more of a persistence forecast with moderate southeast winds, nightly return of MVFR ceilings, and scattering out late morning. The Subtropical Ridge builds over our area this weekend. Increasing subsidence and drying under the Ridge will inhibit shower and thunderstorm development over our area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 73 90 / 30 30 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 86 70 88 / 40 40 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 73 86 70 88 / 30 50 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 68 84 / 60 50 50 70.
The higher overnight temperatures (mid-70s) are expected across parts of SE MO and SW IL where the cloud cover should be greatest. The LSX CWA remains along the periphery of an upper ridge axis, and numerous PV anomalies and/or MCVs will continue to bring periods of SHRA/TSRA to the region. That said, a weak cold front on Saturday could provide the focus for SHRA/TSRA across the northeastern CWA, assuming that mesoscale processes do not change the location of the effective boundary. Models seem to show that the upper ridge axis shifts westward and builds across the western CONUS by the end of the upcoming work week, allowing a PV anomaly to first dive down the eastern side of the ridge and then move into the Great Lakes.
524 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Clear skies this morning have given way to scattered cumulus over the higher terrain with isolated showers over the Flat Tops and eastern Uinta Mountains this afternoon. Lows Saturday night will be near or a little warmer than those forecast for tonight.
Along with the ridging pattern will come a very stagnant weather pattern through the weekend. Rain chances will remain relatively low, except for slight PoPs in southeast OK and southwest AR, where the outer edge of this ridge is located. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower-90s in SE OK and SW AR, up to the mid-90s from our E.
/issued 223 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will be a persistent feature across the forecast area this weekend.
In addition, drier northeasterly flow will be in place across the local area thanks to weak high pressure. Temps right around the seasonable normals (even a bit cooler), and with dewpoints closer to 60, a lot more comfortable. Temperatures look to stay seasonable, but the higher dewpoints/humidity (ala the past few days) looks to hold just south/west of the local area. This low stratus should scatter out with rising ceilings by midday as daytime mixing develops.
It will remain warm and humid with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Sunshine is starting to peak through some lingering low to mid level clouds over the southeastern portion of the High Plains and adjacent Nebraska Panhandle. At the surface, an upslope flow has kept dewpoints in the mid-50s and as the day heats up, the low to mid level cloud deck will finally erode out, creating the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to initiate. This will aid in keeping humidities relatively high with the addition of upslope flow yet again tomorrow afternoon, for another humid day Saturday, with another chance for severe thunderstorms across the High Plains tomorrow afternoon. The major difference between today and tomorrow's storms will be slightly higher PWATs and slower storm motion, which will lead to the higher probability of heavy rain with storms, leading to flash flooding concerns.
A upper level low over Vancouver Island Canada and associated trof just off the Pacific Northwest coastline is producing a moist onshore flow over southern Oregon. This pattern will continue for at least the next 48 hours and may even strenthen as the trof swings inland.
Mesoscale upper level troughing will persist across mid state region, and can not rule out iso shwrs traversing the area during overnight hrs.
1032 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Two mean layer ridging nodes are centered near Bermuda and also over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Water vapor imagery highlights a second piece of this upper level trough complex has been shed and lingers near Andros island. A surface anticyclone centered near Bermuda reaches southwest to near Florida. From synopsis, a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will strengthen and build across the Florida peninsula tonight and Saturday.
Area waters will be between high pressure to the east southeast and a trough of low pressure to the west northwest through this period.
Mid level ridge will move over the region through Saturday. Region of higher moisture in the lower levels over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will move into the coastal plains during the overnight hours. /Issued 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ Hot and dry tonight through Saturday night with ridge at the surface and aloft over South Texas.
Rain showers associated with a weak upper level low are slowly moving out of west central Minnesota this afternoon. With cloud cover expected to remain in place through the afternoon temperatures likely won't climb much more than a few degrees into the low to mid 70s.
/issued 323 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ A warm afternoon is underway across the region, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s and heat indices in excess of 100 degrees at some locales. Afternoon convection will again be possible tomorrow as the upper trof remains in place over the region. However, its presence will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the past several days, with highs on Saturday only reaching the mid 80s across portions of west Tennessee.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak trough supporting these returns but models have almost nothing there.
721 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to extend from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will remain through the weekend. An upper ridge will remain centered over the western Gulf through tonight with a weakness aloft over the western Carolinas. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, in the lower 70s. An upper trough swings across New England on Saturday/Saturday Night with a cold front pushing into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast U.
A very persistent upper level trough encompassing much of the western U. The exception will be over eastern Arizona, where a more moist and unstable atmosphere will be in place on the western periphery of subtropical high pressure.
406 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 The center of the ridge over the northwest Gulf will continue shifting westward into the Southern Plains as additional upper ridging remains over the western Atlantic through the short term. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, temperatures will remain hot and steamy with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. RW The center of the upper ridge will remain to our west through the first of the week. This seems to be associated with a weak upper trough under the ridge. The GFS on this run is showing only weak broad low pressure near the FL panhandle.
Upper level flow will be northeasterly, but shifting around from the south and southwest by Sunday allowing for more of the storms to move east of the higher terrain and into the Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin.
Although boundary-layer moisture remains unseasonable high, the potential for rain is very low, as high pressure aloft dominates. Lows tonight and highs tomorrow slightly warmer than usual early July temperatures still look likely.
417 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Surface conditions across the region features a cold front positioned over the lower Great Lakes. A cold front will push through later today allowing for shower and thunderstorm development.
Otherwise, expect another hot day, with highs in the low to mid 90s and partly cloudy skies. Tonight will be more of the same, with lows once again in the low to mid 70s and low clouds creeping up from the south and southeast.
At the surface, subtropical ridging east of Florida is setting up southerly/southeasterly flow today. As thunderstorms begin to develop over the Florida Peninsula this afternoon, the more southerly flow will allow the west coast sea breeze to push slightly farther inland than yesterday, shifting the highest rain chances into the interior.
Convection looks to wane by late Sunday morning with the weakening of the low level jet.
Today Through Sunday Strong high pressure over Texas will maintain northwest to north flow aloft over Arkansas with various impulses moving around the high and through the flow over the state.
After that, the area of high pressure over southern Canada will build slowly south and become the dominant feature for the afternoon through tonight.
155 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Warm, humid weather can be expected again today with more showers and storms as a weak cold front encroaches on the region. No major changes were needed for the near term forecast as a weak cold front is poised to set off showers and thunderstorms, albeit more widespread, once again.
Weak ridging aloft continues Sunday, keeping overall dry conditions and temperatures about 5 degrees below seasonal averages.
The convection is associated with an upper trof that is beginning to push into the region. /issued 323 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ A warm afternoon is underway across the region, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s and heat indices in excess of 100 degrees at some locales. Afternoon convection will again be possible tomorrow as the upper trof remains in place over the region. However, its presence will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the past several days, with highs on Saturday only reaching the mid 80s across portions of west Tennessee. With the upper ridge still stationed over Texas on Sunday, northwest flow aloft will instigate further diurnal convection.
Tonight said system will exit into North Dakota, allowing weak ridging to build in making for quiet conditions through Saturday morning. An southwest flow aloft will develop Saturday afternoon bringing warmer temps, and the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours. Sunday continues to look to be a bit more active as a warmer airmass builds in from the west. This when coupled with a southwest flow aloft driven by a trough over the pacific northwest, will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening.
235 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to extend from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will remain through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
1042 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Scattered showers will be possible overnight as a cold front presses through the region.
Bulk of precip activity will occur west of the CWA tonight as eastern Nebraska and southwest IA remain under control of high pressure subsidence.
328 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Warm, humid weather can be expected again today with more showers and storms as a weak cold front encroaches on the region. No major changes were needed for the near term forecast as a weak cold front is poised to set off showers and thunderstorms, albeit more widespread, once again.
especially as temps warm back into the lower and mid 80s.
Upper level high pressure remains anchored just southeast of our CWA and this will continue to keep things rain free. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s.
The heaviest cores are nearest the low center, where rainfall rates of a 1/2 to 1 inch/hr are occurring. With high pressure building to the north and a bit drier air in place, the hand is tilted more toward a drier forecast than what has transpired today.
439 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the Gulf Coast with a trough in the western U.
938 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Scattered showers will be possible overnight as a cold front presses through the region.
143 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Slow moving upper trough situated over NW SD, with cyclonic flow aloft supporting a few shra over portions of western SD this morning. Meanwhile, trough reloading over the Pac NW will support another round of shra/ts later this afternoon and evening as an impulse ejects out of the Rockies in SW flow aloft. Convection is expected to initiate over the high plains of eastern WY, shifting NE into the FA.
An upper level trough over Nevada/Utah will track northeast into the region later tonight into the morning hours on Sunday.
The 00Z BRO sounding shows a little drier atms in the low levels across the RGV. High pressure in place over the northwest Gulf will support light to moderate southeast winds. /issued 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have warmed into the Lower to mid 90s across the region. Aloft, high pressure over the southern Mississippi River Valley is forecast to build south and westward toward our neck of the woods through the period. With high pressure at the surface building in across the Gulf expect winds to be less gusty (even less than today) on Saturday.
1138 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Clear skies this morning have given way to scattered cumulus over the higher terrain with isolated showers over the Flat Tops and eastern Uinta Mountains this afternoon. Lows Saturday night will be near or a little warmer than those forecast for tonight. During the remainder of the weak, high pressure will slide westward across the Southwest limiting the influx of moisture.
Overall, this weekend will be influenced by warm temperatures and southwest flow while low pressure sits to the northwest and high pressure sits to the southeast. Sunday afternoon is expected to bring more widespread higher wind speeds across Southeast Idaho; the result of an approaching cold front.
Temperatures at 400 AM were very warm in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
220 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019 High pressure will remain centered over the panhandles of TX and OK today and gradually move west through Sunday, while broad low pressure remain over the northwest U.
An upper level trough will move will across northern sections of the Mid-South today. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with more clouds expected to develop today as highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will be moving into northern sections of the Mid-South overnight with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the front. Temperatures will be close to normal levels with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will move slowly south on Sunday and moving into north Mississippi by Sunday evening. Temperatures will be close to normal on Sunday with highs in the lower 90s.
The low level jet remains focused from Oklahoma into central Kansas, which has been the primary forcing mechanism last night/this morning for the broader convective complex across the central and southern plains. Across eastern Kansas, with the 500mb ridge axis remaining focused over the plains region, we'll continue to see isolated storms on the eastern slope through the morning; a few of these storms may linger from eastern Kansas into western Missouri through daybreak. Additionally, we'll see a more northerly flow regime, at least through the low to mid-levels. Into Sunday, the rather unsettled pattern will persist, with only a shift of the 500mb ridge axis eastward.
/ISSUED 607 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ With the subtropical ridge building in over the state, the TAFs are turning to more of a persistence forecast with moderate southeast winds, nightly return of MVFR ceilings, and scattering out late morning. The Subtropical Ridge builds over our area this weekend. Increasing subsidence and drying under the Ridge will inhibit shower and thunderstorm development over our area.
/Issued 406 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019/ The center of the ridge over the northwest Gulf will continue shifting westward into the Southern Plains as additional upper ridging remains over the western Atlantic through the short term. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, temperatures will remain hot and steamy with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. RW The center of the upper ridge will remain to our west through the first of the week. This seems to be associated with a weak upper trough under the ridge. The GFS on this run is showing only weak broad low pressure near the FL panhandle.
548 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Slow moving upper trough situated over NW SD, with cyclonic flow aloft supporting a few shra over portions of western SD this morning. Meanwhile, trough reloading over the Pac NW will support another round of shra/ts later this afternoon and evening as an impulse ejects out of the Rockies in SW flow aloft. Convection is expected to initiate over the high plains of eastern WY, shifting NE into the FA.
For today, an approaching inverted trof that is over Sonora Mexico this morning, will continue to move to the NNW.
650 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the Gulf Coast with a trough in the western U.
A subtle lower level trough is located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an associated swath of increased moisture continues to work its way westward across our area. The lower level moisture axis near our area will continue to shift off to the west and northwest with an expected drier slot beginning to shift in. Day time highs will top out in the lower 90s with dew point temperatures holding in the mid 70s. Ridging across South Florida will weaken today.
423 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Upper low with a center near Memphis this morning will be the feature that settles southeast causing the initial weak upper trough over the SE as it opens while weakening. This upper trough gets replaced with a stronger upper trough that is currently also an upper low over Vancouver Island.
Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue to dominate our weather conditions and inhibit rain chances through the weekend. The main hazard through the short term period continues to be the high heat index values due to the combination of very warm temperatures and high dewpoints across the region.
Upper ridging over the LA coast/Upper TX coastal waters this morning and will slowly creep westward through Sunday to the TX coastal waters/S TX. Winds should be driven by the diurnal heating pattern parked under the ridge's influence. Temperatures in the afternoon continue to creep up through the end of the week as upper ridging shifts out into the climatologically favored area around the 4 corners. A few weak decaying short waves try to round the ridge and move into the area and could bring slightly more cloud cover (mainly remnant high clouds) but don't anticipate being sufficient to hamper the warm up.
Seasonal to a bit cooler than normal temperatures and dry conditions will generally prevail, though with the possibility of some local drizzle near the coast and over the coastal slopes night and morning hours. The net result for today will be a bit more sunshine around the Bays and slightly warmer afternoon temperatures.
Same old story as the models agree very well on the position and movement of a small closed low near Vancouver, BC, moving generally east. CAPEs in the low triple digits to around 250ish, along with slightly negative LI's and PW's over 0.
807 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Mid level ridging aloft FL will continue to weaken today as a short wave trough lingers over GA and north FL. The axis of broad Atlantic high pressure through central FL to the Gulf of Mexico will ease into south-central FL by the afternoon.
The area remains in a weakness in the subtropical ridge with a weak mid level trough of low pressure over s Ga/n Fl.
We left temps alone, but they could be cooler across the nrn tier, especially is storms do develop this PM. Upper level flow will be northeasterly, but shifting around from the south and southwest by Sunday allowing for more of the storms to move east of the higher terrain and into the Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin.
A cold front will drop across the region tonight and into Sunday, bringing slightly drier air and decreasing rain chances. Some modest support is being provided by the approaching cold front as well as some weak divergence aloft provided by right entrance region jet dynamics. Warm and muggy conditions will continue, with only modestly cooler/drier air behind the front. The front will likely hang up over northern West Virginia on Sunday, with a weak wave of low pressure riding eastward along it.
Convection moves off the high plains later today and transitions into an eastward propagating MCS tonight.
Upper level ridging will be suppressed well south as an upper level trough moves east across the Central and Northern Plains.
Feel most of this will remain across eastern portions of the FA, given the location and orientation of the upper trof, from NE to SW over the area. The latest H5 analysis also shows the upper ridge currently located over south Texas. This feature will move east toward the Mid-South, bringing warmer and slightly drier conditions by midweek. After a dry night with temperatures down into the mid to lower 70s, Sunday will be another nice day with highs a few degrees warmer than today. The upper trof moves to the south, so afternoon thunderstorm activity chances appear more favorable across southern locales of the FA on Sunday afternoon.
Likewise another weak trough was noted across eastern AR and this feature will continue moving eastward as well.
330 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Isolated SHRA/TSRA were occurring across the eastern half of the LSX CWA this afternoon near a weak cold front. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler tonight compared to last night, especially across NE MO and west central IL. This will allow a slightly cooler and slightly drier air mass to filter southward into MO/IL, bringing some relief from the recent warm/humid conditions.
1154 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019 High pressure will remain centered over the panhandles of TX and OK today and gradually move west through Sunday, while broad low pressure remain over the northwest U.