Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Friday cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday as this trough and sfc cold front approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
The current surface map shows high pressure over ND extending a ridge over much of our area, as an elongated area of low pressure remains to our southwest. The highest area for instability remains over the western third of the state, with even ML CAPE values diminishing quickly and retreating to WY and the southwestern corner of SD overnight. Daytime heating will help spark a additional showers, with increased shear helping to sustain them longer than what we've seen over the last couple of days, along with a trough moving in at the surface. Overall through, the northern half of South Dakota has the highest chances of seeing measurable rain through Friday night.
653 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (This evening through Friday night) Weak high pressure to the south of the Four Corners will transition northerly flow into a more zonal flow heading into Friday afternoon and evening.
633 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front across central Illinois will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Slightly cooler air Friday will result in high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. A cold front resides just north of I-72 this afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorms expected to develop near the front. A bit cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday as the slightly cooler air mass and morning cloud cover hold highs down to the lower to mid 80s most places.
511 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Weak upper ridge is currently sitting on the lee side of the Rockies this afternoon, and an upper low over the pacific NW. Warmer temps advect back in for Friday, as southerly flow returns into the region.
Cooler temperatures and breezy winds are forecast this weekend as disturbances sweeps through the area.
Overall, the forecast remains on track with better chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday before the arrival of a cold front from the northwest Friday evening.
Continued fairly quiet with high pressure overhead and mostly clear skies. Will watch our southern counties for some fog formation overnight, but still fairly uncertain as to how widespread the lower visibilities will be. Highs should be a little warmer, in the mid 70s to around 80.
904 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front across central Illinois will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Slightly cooler air Friday will result in high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. A cold front resides just north of I-72 this afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorms expected to develop near the front. A bit cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday as the slightly cooler air mass and morning cloud cover hold highs down to the lower to mid 80s most places.
An upper level trof makes its way across The Treasure State. Tomorrow will be a warmer day, with afternoon and evening, widespread isolated general thunderstorms forecast.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The Tennessee Valley remains under influence of an upper trough, and a frontal boundary remains stalled over the Gulf Coast.
As this wave moves by it will enhance the warm advection in the low to mid levels and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially west of Interstate 29 later tonight and Friday morning. Temperatures should be warmer on Friday as southerly flow returns, especially near and west of the James River.
548 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure tonight followed by a cold front Friday and Friday evening.
257 PM PDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Hot and dry weather continues into Friday, then cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend. Upper level trough will allow temperatures cool further for the weekend, with below normal highs reaching only into the upper 80s around the Delta. The northern Sacramento Valley will see the warmest temperatures, reaching just the low to mid 90s, which is 1 to 4 degrees below normal. The trough will be dry and monsoonal moisture remains south and east of the area, so showers thunderstorms are not expected.
18Z surface data has weak low pressure near KMTW. A front ran southwest from the low into far northeast Missouri and then west into southern Nebraska. After sunset, quiet and dry conditions will be seen through Friday night as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes.
636 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Continued fairly quiet with high pressure overhead and mostly clear skies. Will watch our southern counties for some fog formation overnight, but still fairly uncertain as to how widespread the lower visibilities will be. Highs should be a little warmer, in the mid 70s to around 80.
A weak narrow mid level ridge will lie across south-central FL, with a weak trough to its north across the FL Panhandle and NOFL. Will continue with forecast of 80 POPs which leans toward the higher NBM numbers.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 70s overnight before climbing into the low to mid 90s again tomorrow. Near zonal upper level flow arrives Saturday as a trough traverses the Plains to the north, with surface winds becoming southeasterly across North & Central Texas. The highest chances are across eastern Central Texas where the best moisture resides, although isolated activity will be possible for the southeastern half of the forecast area.
Most sites are in the low to mid 80s, but some warmer temps near 90 are north of our I-30 corridor. Overall, we will start out in the lower 70s again with a few more sites around the 90 degree mark tomorrow.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s. Upper level ridging starts to build into the region; however, we will not be rain free. High temperatures should make into the upper 80s, while overnight lows remain warm and in the low 70s.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) The upper ridge centered along the AZ/Mexican border this morning stretches along the southern tier of states from the Pacific to the Atlantic. A trough moving over the Northern Rockies will pass onto the plains Saturday and keep the ridge from becoming too strong over the region. Temps today should be similar to yesterday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, Saturday a couple degrees warmer.
This will dissipate by sunset, with a dry forecast overnight into Saturday morning as mid level ridging takes hold.
451 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. Isold showers developed along a crossing mid lvl trough, depicted on the latest meso analysis and satellite water vapor imagery.
General troughiness over the eastern half of the U. With the Bermuda high well off to our east and continued general troughiness aloft, each afternoon/overnight period will present an opportunity for at least a few folks to see a shower or thunderstorms.
Weak upper level high remains west of the area. Afternoon highs about where they were yesterday, roughly in the low to mid 90s.
1147 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front across central Illinois will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Slightly cooler air Friday will result in high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. A cold front resides just north of I-72 this afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorms expected to develop near the front. A bit cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday as the slightly cooler air mass and morning cloud cover hold highs down to the lower to mid 80s most places. Fair weather is expected through Saturday with high pressure behind the cold front dominating the weather.
A series of troughs are located out west, one setting off storms in SD, a closed low just north of MT, and the one that will impact our weather currently located in northern CA as nicely shown in water vapor imagery. As high pressure moves across the area today following the passage of a weak cold front, highs will be a few degrees below yesterday's highs.
MVFR to IFR stratus is expected to impact the terminals, with the highest confidence of restrictions at VQQ and GNV where LIFR to VLIFR conditions were indicated with a TEMP group between 07-12z. High confidence of TS near all terminals this afternoon and evening near sea breezes and lifting trough axis across the local area.
(Friday through Saturday) The latest mid-level analysis indicates a broad ridge extending from Baja California to West Texas with a broad trough across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The main players through this period will mainly be low- level moisture in the 1000-750mb layer along with a northeasterly wind in the lower levels on Friday that will become southerly by Saturday. For temperatures, late morning into afternoon cloud coverage will keep the pattern of relatively cooler temperatures running around 5 degrees below normal for highs. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s for most locations.
Overall, the forecast remains on track with better chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday before the arrival of a cold front from the northwest Friday evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 70 91 72 90 / 40 20 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 69 91 70 91 / 40 20 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 68 90 69 91 / 40 20 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 88 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 30.
334 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Slightly warmer temperatures have returned to the Midsouth, but still not too bad for late August. A weak ridge over the Southeastern US should keep most of the Midsouth dry today and Saturday but afternoon high temperatures in the low 90s could result in isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
219 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Outside of a few showers near and south of I-70 early this morning, dry weather will start the weekend across our area, as high pressure drifts across the Great Lakes.
1226 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (This evening through Friday night) Weak high pressure to the south of the Four Corners will transition northerly flow into a more zonal flow heading into Friday afternoon and evening.
408 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Low pressure moving northeast into southern Ontario today will drag a cold front southeast across the local area.
146 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Friday cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday as this trough and sfc cold front approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
312 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. Isold showers developed along a crossing mid lvl trough, depicted on the latest meso analysis and satellite water vapor imagery.
With a confluent flow aloft ahead of a south central Canada/Northern Plains mid-level ridge, expect building high pressure across the area today with fog dissipating within an hour or two after sunrise. The high will shift into the lower and eastern Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. At this point, winds will become southerly along the high's western flank and ahead of an approaching disturbance from the west.
Further south, an occluded cold front is slowly progressing southward ahead of weak 850-700mb CAA. Behind the front, the aforementioned CAA will help build high pressure, keeping skies fairly clear. High pressure will continue to build over the Ohio Valley tomorrow. In return, surface temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid 80s. Still the overall airmass will be rather pleasant with dew points in the low 60s for most of the day. High pressure centralized over the region will keep winds light; expect nearly calm and variable winds most of the day with a slight shift towards southerly tomorrow evening.
(Through Tomorrow Night) 925-750mb trough/low over east Tx will move westward today. We'll be situated in a general weakness aloft - between some ridges to our ese & wsw.
Near seasonal temperatures expected with daytime highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. High pressure continues to ridge over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico with light SE winds becoming westerly close to the coast each afternoon.
With the upper level trough remaining over the eastern US today, scattered diurnally-enhanced convection will again be expected today as a weak upper wave transitions eastward. While the area will transition into weak ridging aloft on Saturday, scattered diurnal convection can again be expected given abundant moisture remaining in place.
204 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Today: An upper level Low will move across southern Saskatchewan, weakening to an open wave as it does so by this afternoon.
As this wave moves by it will enhance the warm advection in the low to mid levels and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially west of Interstate 29 later tonight and Friday morning. Temperatures should be warmer on Friday as southerly flow returns, especially near and west of the James River. Troughiness remains to the north and will bring about additional warm advection with some minor instability. Saturday will be much warmer and a bit more humid, highs generally mid 80s to lower 90s.
1052 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Weak upper ridge is currently sitting on the lee side of the Rockies this afternoon, and an upper low over the pacific NW. Warmer temps advect back in for Friday, as southerly flow returns into the region.
301 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. Isold showers developed along a crossing mid lvl trough, depicted on the latest meso analysis and satellite water vapor imagery.
Continued fairly quiet with high pressure overhead and mostly clear skies. Will watch our southern counties for some fog formation overnight, but still fairly uncertain as to how widespread the lower visibilities will be. Highs should be a little warmer, in the mid 70s to around 80. The associated cold frontal boundary will stretch across the east that evening, with storms expected to develop along and ahead of the front that afternoon/evening.
1121 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Friday cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday as this trough and sfc cold front approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Reimer Upper level low will move from northeast Montana to the western Dakotas which will generate some shower activity but airmass is trying to dry out during this period so would expect precipitation amounts to be pretty sparse. Will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 70s and fairly breezy in the afternoon as momentum mixes down.
However, lapse rates of near 7 C/km and dewpoints in the low 60s will be able to support some stronger storms.
Two main areas standout, first in northwest Montana which will be closest to the main low pressure system and the other south of I-90 where upper level jet energy will increase dynamic lift. Unlike the previous 4 to 5 days there will not be abundant moisture, so expect thunderstorms to form in the terrain or along a passing cold front. Behind the cold front, a normal August day will greet us as temperatures briefly lower to climatological normals.
Friday, another axis of weak convection may form during the day from west KY back into SEMO, maybe the southern tip of IL as another wave moves across the area and through a zone of moisture south of advancing high pressure. Once the wave moves by Friday evening, s/wv ridging will take over, and should dry us out for the most part Friday night through Saturday. The ridge doesn't stick around. However, there is little subsequent forcing aloft, and a greater high pressure presence. We may back off just a bit from the high values seen in the NBM, especially outside of the diurnally favored time periods.
316 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Discussion/Marine Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from near Detroit southwest to Coldwater. Bufkit RH progs show drier air advecting into the CWA today and we'll see a return to sunshine by the afternoon as high pressure noses in from the west behind the cold front.
Isolated thunderstorms persisted in the High Desert of San Bernardino County this evening, to the east of Victorville, but are finally diminishing.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing centered near Hudson Bay continues to shift east early this morning with heights gradually rising across northern Michigan today through tonight. Well-advertised low pressure and attendant slow-moving boundary are now well off to the east with just a bit of lingering wrap around low-level moisture still in place. High pressure becomes centered overhead this evening. As alluded to above, high pressure settles overhead this evening with mainly clear skies and light winds expected tonight. This sets the stage for what should be decent radiational cooling with lows dropping into the 50s area-wide with some of the typically cooler/interior locales falling into the 40s.
Thickness values will tick up slightly today and with slightly less surface moisture in place as well, have increased temperatures generally a degree or two warmer than what was experienced yesterday.
With a confluent flow aloft ahead of a south central Canada/Northern Plains mid-level ridge, expect building high pressure across the area today with fog dissipating within an hour or two after sunrise.
As these systems move out into the high plains, increasing moisture and associated low level jet will develop an area of precipitation over the Dakotas Friday afternoon.
An upper ridge over the Wyoming Black Hills will continue to break down through the rest of today and overnight with zonal flow setting up over the High Plains. This remains the day with the highest chances for thunderstorms across portions of North Central Kansas and extreme South Central Nebraska. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The warm front lifts back north, situated near the NE/SD border. For Saturday, an upper level trof moves through Saturday. Some slightly cooler air may try to in Saturday across the eastern portion of the CWA, with highs in the upper 80s.
Another warm day is in store for North & Central Texas with highs in the low to mid 90s and isolated showers and storms for portions of Central Texas. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 70s overnight before climbing into the low to mid 90s again tomorrow. Near zonal upper level flow arrives Saturday as a trough traverses the Plains to the north, with surface winds becoming southeasterly across North & Central Texas. The highest chances are across eastern Central Texas where the best moisture resides, although isolated activity will be possible for the southeastern half of the forecast area.
There is a cold front to the north that is slowly sagging southward across the Mid-Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys. This trough will pass to the north today and the front will slow and eventually stall to the north of the area.
/issued 334 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022/ Slightly warmer temperatures have returned to the Midsouth, but still not too bad for late August. A weak ridge over the Southeastern US should keep most of the Midsouth dry today and Saturday but afternoon high temperatures in the low 90s could result in isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures and breezy winds are forecast this weekend as a dry cold front sweeps through the area.
Winds will shift from easterly to southerly this afternoon, bringing in warmer temperatures.
407 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2022 A weak upper level trough will make its way across CO this afternoon and evening. By that time, a little mid/upper level drying may start to develop over the northwest as the trough axis shifts more to the east.
530 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Outside of a few showers near and south of I-70 early this morning, dry weather will start the weekend across our area, as high pressure drifts across the Great Lakes.
High temperatures today are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s for most areas. High temperatures on Saturday are again forecast to be in the low to mid 90s for most areas.
617 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Aviation Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from near Detroit southwest to Coldwater. Bufkit RH progs show drier air advecting into the CWA today and we'll see a return to sunshine by the afternoon as high pressure noses in from the west behind the cold front.
Current temperatures in Memphis are trending about 3 degrees warmer than forecasted, so adjusted temps for the rest of today to match current observations. /issued 334 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022/ Slightly warmer temperatures have returned to the Midsouth, but still not too bad for late August. A weak ridge over the Southeastern US should keep most of the Midsouth dry today and Saturday but afternoon high temperatures in the low 90s could result in isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
The combination of abundant moisture, the dissipating frontal boundary to the north and an inverted 500mb trough/ tropical wave will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Hot and humid weather is expected on Saturday with highs generally in the mid to 90s to the lower 100s.
810 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure.
627 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The upper ridge centered along the AZ/Mexican border this morning stretches along the southern tier of states from the Pacific to the Atlantic. A trough moving over the Northern Rockies will pass onto the plains Saturday and keep the ridge from becoming too strong over the region. Temps today should be similar to yesterday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, Saturday a couple degrees warmer.
From synopsis, sprawling, weak high pressure over the central North Atlantic will continue to be disrupted by a trough over the Mid- Atlantic states.
Surface winds increasing to W-NW 15-25 kt Saturday as a cold front crosses the area.
It will be a bit cooler this weekend as onshore flow and a coastal eddy deepens the marine layer.
525 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. Isold showers developed along a crossing mid lvl trough, depicted on the latest meso analysis and satellite water vapor imagery. These should exit the area early this morning with the trough.
Deep moisture persists over the local area today with a weak boundary draped across northern Florida and a weak ridge axis extended towards the peninsula from the Atlantic. Overall, PoPs today 70-80% area-wide through the afternoon hours, with light winds and highs in the lower 90s.
There is low level cyclonic motion in southwestern Utah and hints in the Four Corners area with general anticyclonic motion aloft due to high pressure centered along the Arizona-Mexico border and ridging northward. A trough passing along the Canadian border sets up a zonal pattern over the region to push the moisture out of the area, especially the areas to the north, but there will be enough residual moisture south of I-70 for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon over the mountains.
Temperatures across the area have climbed into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints sitting in the 60s. By Saturday, an upper-level trough axis will move across the northern Plains and begin to increase PoPs for the weekend.