Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
By Friday, the NHC is expecting potential tropical cyclone two to have formed into a tropical depression. There is a potential for localized flooding and severe weather associated with any 'banding' of potential tropical cyclone two. Looking further in the period, some guidance suggests potential tropical cyclone two to track north through Louisiana along the Mississippi River. Cooler temperatures can be expected for much of the weekend, with highs in the 80's.
537 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 20Z water vapor IR satellite shows the ridge axis directly over the Rockies. With little movement in the ridge, dry conditions should continue through tonight. The higher values of CAPE will be focused further north into central Nebraska. Upper pattern will be dominated by a ridge centered over the southern plains. However, will also see weak energy moving around the ridge, through central Colorado into western Nebraska. That will translate to daily thunderstorm chances during the late afternoon through evening, with storms initiating on the higher terrain of Colorado then slowly moving eastward before dissipating after sunset. High pressure will remain over the area tonight into the day on Friday, leaving a quiet forecast.
525 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the northern Rockies with subtle wave noted over northwestern WY. Surface trof is crossing the western Dakotas, with temps well into the 80s early this afternoon, and even some 90s in northeastern WY. Upper ridge will get knocked down slightly on Friday behind tonights departing wave, which should lower high temps a few degrees. Slightly better chance for storms as a more robust wave moves through the flat ridge and capping is not quite as robust. Flat upper ridge through the weekend will bring near to slightly above average temps and chances for storms as waves move through the ridge.
However, with the passage of an upper-level trough and the loss of daytime heating, this activity should slowly subside into the late evening and early morning hours but some showers could linger across southern portions of the forecast area for several more hours.
Temperatures have warmed to near seasonal averages, and will trend gradually warmer through the weekend.
A cold front will finish crossing the region this evening.
A few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday as a ridge of high pressure aloft continues to influence the high temperatures across Central California.
556 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Showers and storms will continue to drift southward this evening ahead of a cold front.
High pressure will result in dry weather in the short term.
Most areas should see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this morning's temperatures.
/issued 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): As the mid level trough/shear axis works south around the broad circulation of what is now Tropical Storm Barry, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue, mainly across western portions of the CWA. Temperatures will still reach above normal through Friday, although maybe slightly cooler than previous guidance due to increased cloud cover and chance of rain.
1052 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Currently - The Keys remain in a southerly flow with a broad ridge across the Florida Straits and a developing Barry in the northern central gulf. This activity is now concentrated over our gulf waters northwest through north of the Dry Tortugas and another round is moving into the outer waters off of the Lower Keys. Short Term Update - Through the remainder of the night, Barry will move slowly northwestward towards the central gulf coast and the nearby ridge will nudge northward. Dry air in the lower levels of the evening RAOB at KEY suggest we will have a hard time getting this activity into the Lower Keys, but included a TEMPO for some light rain.
By morning Friday the cold front will have slipped into far northwest Nebraska with lows in the 60s. Then a marginal risk remains for a few storms to reach severe limits Friday late into the overnight hours as the low level jet strengthens with models in good agreement storms developing over the southwest after midnight.
132 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A cold front will finish crossing the region this evening.
127 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A cold front will move east and cross the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms tonight. Somewhat cooler air will arrive Friday with lingering showers.
230 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The cold front which moved through yesterday has stalled out to the south over southeast Arkansas and into the Tennessee valley.
Temps will be close to seasonal normals today, but the column is dry enough to mix down some dewpoints in the lower 60s, so it will feel a bit less muggy than your typical July day.
126 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 In the wake of a cold front, drier air will be filtered in on north winds overnight. High pressure to the west will keep these drier north winds over the region until the center of the high settles over the CWA overnight Friday.
The hot and dry pattern will persist into the weekend with high pressure over the region.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer with highs in the upper 90s to near 100F in the Treasure Valley, which would be the hottest day so far this year.
1234 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A cold front slowly approaches from the west this morning and passes on later today.
Areas most likely to be impacted through the morning commute will be across north central Missouri to central Missouri, closest to the center of high pressure and resulting calm surface winds, in addition to where surface temps have been able to drop off more quickly. A fairly stable upper-level pattern will maintain dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend as the upper ridge slowly builds into the Plains. Still anticipating afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as the ridging pattern and southeasterly to southerly surface flow remain fixed across the area for the time.
Slightly drier air in the lower levels will try to make its way into the area today behind a cold front which will stall just to our south.
1202 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A slightly cooler and less humid air mass is currently in place across the area this afternoon, as the upper level ridge has moved to the west of the area. Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the lower to middle 80s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Friday will be similar to today but a few degrees warmer, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s both days this weekend.
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The Middle Texas Coast will be between an 500mb ridge centered over the Four Corners region and Tropical Storm Barry in the northern Gulf.
There's no reason it won't be warmer tomorrow, particularly with lighter winds that should be predominantly out of the southwest.
336 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A cold front slowly approaches from the west this morning and passes on later today.
1002 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the northern Rockies with subtle wave noted over northwestern WY. Surface trof is crossing the western Dakotas, with temps well into the 80s early this afternoon, and even some 90s in northeastern WY. Upper ridge will get knocked down slightly on Friday behind tonights departing wave, which should lower high temps a few degrees. Slightly better chance for storms as a more robust wave moves through the flat ridge and capping is not quite as robust. Flat upper ridge through the weekend will bring near to slightly above average temps and chances for storms as waves move through the ridge.
JHM Upper level high pressure will remain over the four corners region through the weekend; troughs will continue moving over the western portion of the ridge into the Pacific Northwest during this period. In this pattern high temperatures will remain slightly above normal with higher heights associated with ridging over the Great Basin and Rockies. However, closer proximity of trough will help initiate daily Delta breezes with evening cooling and relief from the heat over the Delta, Srn Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Valleys.
20Z water vapor IR satellite shows the ridge axis directly over the Rockies. With little movement in the ridge, dry conditions should continue through tonight. The higher values of CAPE will be focused further north into central Nebraska. Upper pattern will be dominated by a ridge centered over the southern plains. However, will also see weak energy moving around the ridge, through central Colorado into western Nebraska. That will translate to daily thunderstorm chances during the late afternoon through evening, with storms initiating on the higher terrain of Colorado then slowly moving eastward before dissipating after sunset. High pressure remains over the region this evening through tomorrow.
Thunderstorms are expected again on Friday afternoon with the highest coverage near CHA and TYS.
305 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Currently have strong upper ridge setup over the southern Rockies with Tropical storm Barry just off the LA Gulf Coast. At the surface, a ridge extends from the western Great Lakes region into the southern Plains. Upper ridge over the southern Rockies is expected to remain nearly stationary through the weekend with Tropical storm Barry forecast to come on shore Sat and track slowly north across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Upper ridge is expected to slide slowly east to start the work week and by Wed will be centered over the southern Plains.
256 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A northwest flow of somewhat cooler air will be over the area today.
High pressure had settled across the Mid Missouri River Valley region this morning, maintaining a mainly dry atmosphere and clear skies. Meanwhile, a low pressure system rolling east through Ontario will drive a cold front through the Northern Plains to a southern Minnesota to western Nebraska line late today. High instability will exist along this front as dew points increase to near 70 and temps reach the lower 90s.
By Friday, the NHC is expecting potential tropical cyclone two to have formed into a tropical depression. There is a potential for localized flooding and severe weather associated with any 'banding' of potential tropical cyclone two. Looking further in the period, some guidance suggests potential tropical cyclone two to track north through Louisiana along the Mississippi River. Cooler temperatures can be expected for much of the weekend, with highs in the 80's. Like previous mornings, the low level airmass remains moist, and a period of MVFR stratus is possible in the 11z-15z time frame.
356 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania by sunrise. Weak high pressure will then dominate the weather into the weekend. The radar has gone quiet, despite the fact the cold front is just now entering the Northern Mountains. Dewpoints will run some 5-10 deg cooler than yesterday making it feel much more comfortable over most of the region.
Aside from night and morning low clouds and fog, mostly clear skies and continuation of a gradual warming trend are expected into the weekend as an upper level high pressure ridge builds in from the Desert Southwest. Most inland areas warmed a few degrees today as an upper ridge centered near the Four Corners continued to build westward across California. In fact, some coastal locations, including San Francisco, were slightly cooler today than yesterday.
Cold front is still approaching from the west and may help initiate isolated activity, but with coverage already low (and failure for cold pool driven MCS to develop) CAMs are struggling run-run to reflect lack of any thunderstorm coverage locally.
Strong high pressure aloft centered near the four corners region will continue to draw moisture into Utah through the weekend.
Once Barry begins to lift off to the northeast, ridging aloft will build over the region for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week.
High pressure remains in control across the region tonight providing quiet weather. A weak cold front moves into the region from the north during the day on Friday and will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The bigger story will be increasing heat and humidity as a ridge builds over the central and western CONUS.
428 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A northwest flow of somewhat cooler air will be over the area today.
1122 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Upper level ridge remains over Colorado, which will continue to bring monsoonal moisture towards the region.
Broad, zonal longwave ridging was in place across the Southern CONUS this morning and should amplify gradually over the next 24 hours. An equally expansive high pressure cell stretched from the Great Lakes to Texas, bifurcating the forecast area from southwest to northeast. Mid to high clouds may filter southeastward later tonight from convection in Nebraska, with patchy fog possible in east-central Kansas closer to the high pressure ridge axis.
Forecast area continues to be under the influence of a southwest flow due to the Four Corners high and a trough off the coast.
1021 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front.
A cold front is due to drop south through the western Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming, bringing slightly cooler temperatures (3-5 degrees) to the area than yesterday's and chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The cold front will stall along the eastern slopes of the Laramie Range, which along with favorable midlayer shear, lapse rates near 8 deg/km, and upslope flow, showers and thunderstorms will initiate mainly along and east of I-25, with a few storms potentially becoming severe north of a Douglas- Torrington-Scottsbluff line where CAPE and helicity values are more favorable. The dirty upper level ridge that has been sitting over the region, keeping us generally dry and warm, will begin to shift east over the weekend.
A mid-level high pressure system was centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border this morning and will remain in the same general position through Saturday.
Weak high pressure is beginning to build across the forecast area as a cold front continues to slide east across North Dakota. Aloft, longwave ridging continues across the CONUS with a strong high pressure in place over the southwest. but again, not seeing much forcing in this area, which might be why the high-res models don't have much in the most recent runs. Instead, they've been consistent in bringing down stronger cells from Saskatchewan to northwest North Dakota, and if those could find a pocket of higher CAPE to help keep it from being torn apart by the high shear it could become severe. As the upper level ridge slowly slides east and the trough in the western CONUS deepens, temperatures will continue to warm with general height rises over the Northern Plains on Saturday.
Weak high pressure will bring mostly dry conditions today. A trough will develop offshore on Saturday for increasing clouds and a chance of showers, mainly in the mountains.
619 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A northwest flow of somewhat cooler air will be over the area today. High pressure will bring a sunny and warm day for Saturday. A ridge noses in from the southwest tonight as the upper heights begin to build. This will bring warmer and drier conditions for Saturday. This is associated with an upper level trough dropping into the Northeast.
Ridging aloft will strengthen into Saturday keeping temperatures near 90. The long range forecast features a 4 corners high and ridging over the central part of the country. There will be a series of waves that will top/suppress the ridge, with low chances for convection, but confidence generally is low with this flow regime.
This cloudiness was resulting in overnight temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees warmer than readings at this same time latest night. At any rate, the general trend the next several days will be an upswing in thunderstorm chances as the upper high remains centered near the four corners region and deeper moisture moves into the area.
Meanwhile, the coast will be cooler due to marine cloudiness. An upper-level high was positioned over the Colorado Plateau early Friday morning, while a broad trough was located over the NERN PAC. Thinking is largely unchanged as northerly winds continue to ramp up over the next few days, aided by a strengthening thermal trough over interior CA. Looking beyond the weekend, persistent troughiness over the E Pacific looks to maintain a northerly wind regime for the rest of the coming week.
645 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Currently have strong upper ridge setup over the southern Rockies with Tropical storm Barry just off the LA Gulf Coast. At the surface, a ridge extends from the western Great Lakes region into the southern Plains. Upper ridge over the southern Rockies is expected to remain nearly stationary through the weekend with Tropical storm Barry forecast to come on shore Sat and track slowly north across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Upper ridge is expected to slide slowly east to start the work week and by Wed will be centered over the southern Plains.
A large western Atlantic region of high pressure will build across the Sunshine State today, and hold firm for this upcoming weekend. See no reason to stray from highs near 90 and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. A western Atlantic high pressure cell will extend across the Florida Peninsula, while a couple of subtle low level easterly perturbations accompanied by higher moisture move across our region. High temperatures will average in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 80s. Gentle to occasional moderate east to southeast winds with the higher winds on the outer waters of Mainland Monroe southward to the western Straits of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, can be expected today.
1052 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front.
356 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A flat upper ridge over the region will slowly amplify through the weekend.
/Issued 323 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019/ The Middle Texas Coast will be between an 500mb ridge centered over the Four Corners region and Tropical Storm Barry in the northern Gulf. Mid level high pressure remains anchored just west to northwest of South Texas, bringing us a hot and mostly dry weekend.
341 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 H5 ridge remains centered over Southern CO today, with flow across WY from the southwest aloft. The southwest flow aloft will bring impulses across the region today, with enough instability to spark some thunderstorm activity, starting on the higher elevations early this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will keep things warm and mostly dry as high pressure continues its influence from the southeast.
529 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 H5 ridge remains centered over Southern CO today, with flow across WY from the southwest aloft. The southwest flow aloft will bring impulses across the region today, with enough instability to spark some thunderstorm activity, starting on the higher elevations early this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will keep things warm and mostly dry as high pressure continues its influence from the southeast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 73 88 72 / 60 30 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 88 71 / 50 30 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 88 68 / 30 20 20 30.
as Atlantic high pressure begins to build in across south FL today.
258 AM PDT Fri Jul 12 2019 An upper-level area of high pressure over the Four Corners will be responsible for hot weather this weekend.
High temperatures today and Saturday will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with Saturday just a few degrees warmer than today. Upper high remains anchored over the 4-corners with a west/southwest upper flow across our region topping the ridge.
Weak high pressure influence from the western Atlc ridge with associated ridge axis just south of the local waters.
958 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A northwest flow of somewhat cooler air will be over the area today. High pressure will bring a sunny and warm day for Saturday. Rain chances taper off after 18Z with surface and upper level heights starting to build and warmer air working in. This is associated with an upper level trough dropping into the Northeast.
628 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 327 AM CDT High pressure settling in across the region early this morning and will continue to shift overhead today, providing another dry and sunny day. With the high steadily pushing to the southeast today, a slightly warmer air mass will advect across the region while higher dewpoint air begins to move into the area. Will see highs rise more into the mid/upper 80s today, with conditions remaining cooler near the lake. However, may see this developing lake breeze retreat later this afternoon into the early evening, with the warmer inland air possible reaching locations near the lake. Mid-level cloud cover will slowly increase late tonight ahead of a cold front, but with little operational impact, opted to not clutter the TAFs with an additional VFR line.
543 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The cold front which moved through yesterday has stalled out to the south over southeast Arkansas and into the Tennessee valley. Upper ridge looks to remain centered over the NM/CO border through tonight, while tropical storm Barry begins to move inland late tonight into Saturday morning. Temperatures may be slightly warmer today than yesterday, but most areas should still remain in the 80s with lows tonight in the mid 60s.
1035 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure centered east of the northern Bahamas supports moderate southeasterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure will extend across the Florida Peninsula over the next several days.
Northern California remains under upper level southwest flow between high pressure centered over the four corners area and upper level troughing off the coast. Increasing subsidence under the ridge has squashed down the marine layer to below 500 feet per Fort Ord profiler so only patchy coastal stratus is expected to make it into the delta this morning.
539 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front.
749 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Aviation - Chance for isolated thunderstorms this evening into Saturday morning along and ahead of a cold front.
Storm surge threat of 3 to 6 feet remains along portions of the lower Louisiana coastline, with lesser values around Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi coast.
Ahead of the boundary, a prefrontal trough will be in place across the area. Expect scattered convection to develop with the highest coverage north closer to the frontal boundary. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Highs are forecast in the lower 90s Saturday, with lows Saturday night in the lower 70s.
The rest of the short term looks to be fairly quiet, with the upper level ridge centered over the Plains keeping much of the area dry Saturday.
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A weak cold front will push east of the region this evening and will be followed by a narrow ridge of high pressure on Saturday.
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The primary focus in the short term will be how the remnants of Barry influence the placement of a weak cold front that is currently draped across eastern Kentucky. Aside from that, most of eastern Kentucky should experience hot and dry weather on Friday, as a ridge of high pressure exerts is influence from the north and northwest. Models are in pretty good agreement on bringing the the weakening tropical system northward through the Lower Mississippi valley region, before shifting it north and east into the Ohio river valley.