Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COVERAGE. AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF OUR AREA.
WITH TROUGH PLACED IN CURRENT LOCALE VERSUS PLACEMENT YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S IN SPOTS. LITTLE MOVEMENT FURTHER EAST OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS SUNRISE IS GOING TO LIMIT ANY DOWNTREND IN TEMPS. THE BROAD H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION.
Diurnal heating will mix out the low-level inversion resulting in an unstable airmass.
348 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN AND NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT STALLING NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS AND THE FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE NORTH SUNDAY.
215 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
00Z RAOB DATA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE TX GULF COAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH WAS A COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NC. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE WILL BE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST RETROGRADES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY W/ REGARD TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW. HAZARDS: DESPITE STRONGER FORCING ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC.
WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH COOLER LAKE TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER AS ADDITIONAL WARM AIR IS ADVECTED IN AT THE SURFACE WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH CLOUDS.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MEAN LAYERED RIDGE HAS BEEN ERODED. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS INITIATED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPEAR TO PAINT A BROAD SWATH OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH.
AIDED BY A WEDGE FRONT BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A BROAD UPPER LOW/DISTURBANCE RETROGRADING SLOWLY WESTWARD. MUCH OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE IN A SMALL SUBSIDENT ZONE WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ANY SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM CONFINED TO SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO NORTH GA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. GETTING CAUGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
115 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE LINE.
425 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 Not much change in the sensible weather over the next couple of days as upper ridge remains over the area.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SUPPORT THE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SO IT APPEARS THAT THE VORTEX WILL LINGER FOR THE DAY BEFORE BEING SHEARED APART OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PESKY CUTOFF LOW FINALLY DISSIPATES.
619 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK OR LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
201 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY WARM THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
250 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK OR LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
500 MB RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUBSIDENT ATMS OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE.
1025 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern Washington Saturday.
WIND PROFILE IS INDICATING MORE NORTHERLY WINDS ABOVE 3K FEET THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
WARM MIDLEVEL CLOSED RIDGE SITS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND, WHEREAS AN H5 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST.
The local region will reside under the western periphery of a broad mid-upper level low centered off the southeast U. At the surface, winds will be from the east to northeast as a wedge of high pressure builds down from the mid-Atlantic states into northern and central Georgia. Despite the above climo PoPs (50-60%), temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s across inland areas.
347 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER OR. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSED THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR SEVERAL DAYS PROGGING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ID AND MT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST.
southerly winds will once again bring unseasonably warm air into the area this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s. 00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM TEXAS TO IL THROUGH THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WAVE A FEW MORE DAYS.
BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY VIA BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015 FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN COLDER VALLEYS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BRING COLD WEATHER GEAR AND BE PREPARED FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MORNING TEMPERATURES.
548 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE CATSKILLS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
113 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NE THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGER/DEEPER PAC NW UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALLS AND HANGING UP THE LEE SIDE SFC CYCLONE OVER THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE ADVANCING PAC NW UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POTENT UPPER JET STREAK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY ACROSS SCENTRAL SD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LL THETA-E RIDGE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALIGN WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO SUN MORNING. WITH A DECENT COLD FRONT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THE LARGER SCALE COLD FRONT IS BACK AROUND SALT LAKE CITY AND JUST CREEPING EASTWARD. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRYING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY AND THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
ridging aloft will keep it hot/humid with above normal temps/dew points through the Holiday weekend continuing. By Labor Day, some energy aloft is approaching the Great Lakes and dampening the arc of the upper ridge somewhat at least.
500 MB RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUBSIDENT ATMS TO PREVAIL. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMUP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE SETS ARE COMING IN A BIT WARMER VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MODEL SETS AS THE NAM HIGH TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE BIT UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING RECENT TEMP TRENDS.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN COULD ONCE AGAIN SEND SOME ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. WITH WARMER READINGS IN THE SOUTH.
Rain continues to fall across the Northern Rockies this morning as a low pressure system circulates just to the west in Oregon/Washington.
The subtropical ridge is parked right over west central TX and has kept a lid on rain chances the past few days.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U. WHILE AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE PAC NW THIS MORNING.
A deep upper level trough will amplify today over the West before ejecting rapidly northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday, helping to push a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday.
MODELS ALL POINT TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE RIDGE AND INTO WESTERN MN BY EVENING. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH OPENING AND EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. IT SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH SHOULD TREND MORE DEVELOPMENTAL THROUGH THE NIGHT OWING TO LARGE- SCALE LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW.
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 10.
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE MIDDLE MISS VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. AT THIS POINT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING FOR SE KS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FOR MON WITH THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY OVER NEBRASKA/SD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SAT.
SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL BE PLEASANT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN THE LOW 60S. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE THE MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING FROM BRD SUGGEST 200-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MY PERIOD WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER OREGON AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
AFTER TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION MOVES EAST WITH TRAILING TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH AND BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.
FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE PUSH IS DRIVEN BY A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRESENTLY CENTERED AT THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015 The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average, with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
HAVE KEPT CLOUD FORMATION STUNTED TO ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WERE VARIABLE AND WEAK IN THE LOW LEVELS.
MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND ARRIVE OVER NW COLORADO BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING.
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT.
1146 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT WE ARE LIKELY SO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER.
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE.
940 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
Last night's guidance did not do well with the fog this morning, but with the high/mid clouds over us would lean more toward keeping fog out of the forecast. Lows tonight will likely drop back into the lower-middle 50s for most areas, but some of our cooler Bluegrass areas may drop back into the mid-upper 40s once again. High pressure will build back into the region resulting mostly sunny skies for Saturday and mostly clear skies for Saturday night. An increasing southerly flow will allow slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s for Saturday.
957 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.
757 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. 19Z NEPHANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL ANALYSIS OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. FIRST ELONGATED TROUGH IS SHEARING AS IT WORKS NORTH INTO THE MEAN RIDGE ALOFT. MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION.
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST. DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR OOZES IN.
720 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT WE ARE LIKELY SO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER.
925 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE REEF SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
1127 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A BIT OF A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT WE ARE LIKELY SO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE SHWRS IS WHERE THE HIGHER DW PTS (MID 70S) HAVE PUSHED INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED DW PT TEMPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
THE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO SCT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE WARM FRONT IS CREEPING BACK INLAND AND THEREFORE SEEING SCT SHWR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVE NEAR AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
1003 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL BE A GOOD MARKER FOR THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THERE INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THE DAY. NO PROBLEM WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S INLAND FROM THE SHORELINES GIVEN SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE REGION.