Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Where showers have been more persistent across southwest North Carolina temperatures are in the lower 70s. On Saturday instability will be greater ahead of a slow moving cold front that will move into the Ohio valley Saturday. Will follow closer to warmer NAM with highs lower to mid 80s.
1126 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Imagery shows unsettled troughiness across the ern 3/4s of the CONUS with an amplified ridge ovr the west coast. Current SW trof continues to race through WY and into the High/Central Plains.
An upper trough and cold front will move through the region tonight. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid 80s tomorrow. Lows in the lower 70s tonight will drop back into the 60s tomorrow night.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY: Weather for the long holiday weekend will be dominated by the western Atlantic ridge, both at the surface and aloft, with its axis extending across the Florida peninsula.
) A cold front drifting southeastward across northern Oklahoma. The cold front extended from near Perry to just south of Enid to near Elk City as of early afternoon. Convection should develop across the higher terrain of the Rockies and Sangre De Christo mountains tomorrow evening and move eastward across the southern/central High Plains and eventually could move into western Oklahoma.
/issued 1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ Overall forecast remains on track as a weak cold front continues to sag through the area, roughly bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast at midday. We will also have to see if convection originating over the higher terrain of NM can survive its track across the plains and into West Texas. /issued 358 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ The synoptic situation this morning sees near zonal flow in the eastern part of the country with high amplitude ridging along the Pacific Coast. The ridge out west will flatten somewhat over the remainder of the weekend as a trough comes ashore the Pacific Northwest as it weakens.
1148 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Latest surface analysis shows rising pressures across the CWA as the high pressure builds south behind the departing cold front. Could see some shallow convection ovr the panhandle and in areas nearest the CO/WY stateline as the mid-level thermal trof moves thru around early in the afternoon.
/18Z Update/ Upper level ridge will keep VFR conditions across the region this afternoon and evening. Shallow troughing over the Central Plains and a complex of storms expected tonight near the Red River Valley should lead to increases in surface winds and humidity over South Central TX today.
Current echoes on KBYX Doppler radar are favoring the Atlantic waters well offshore from the Middle Keys, and the Gulf waters well offshore from the Lower Keys. With low amplitude but persistent mid to upper level ridging in place to our north/northwest, the local flow will remain deep from the east.
The strong ridge of high pressure that builds over the region could even bring near record temperatures to some: This would translate to afternoon highs in the 90s to low 100s.
Surface observations reveal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in the Hill Country to the lower and mid 90s along I-35 to near 100 along the Rio Grande.
Chances for rain tonight mainly north near the track of S/WV trough. Low clouds continue to slide east behind advancing cold front. Early this morning a surface cold front continues to scoot south and east across central portions of the state.
142 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front on Saturday. shower and thunderstorm coverage should escalate late tonight with the approach of the main trough, though the severe potential should wane with decreasing instability. The upper trough is forecast to complete passage across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region late Saturday. Ensemble model solutions indicate broad upper troughing persisting across the NE CONUS through the first half of the week. A deeper trough is progged across the region by the end of the week with continued shower/storms chances. Periodic restriction potential, primarily MVFR, will persist today as bouts of convection plague area terminals in advance of a Saturday cold front.
153 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Mid and upper level troughing remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with moist cyclonic low level flow across the area. Temperatures today will range from the lower 60s north to mid 70s south. Nam shows a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a trough in the central U. 12z Sat with a ridge over the Rockies. This trough remains over the area into Sun. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the country 12z Mon. There is also a broad trough over western Canada and also across eastern Canada 12z Mon. The ridge starts to build over the Rockies 12z Tue and continues to build northward over the Rockies 12z Wed. This ridge continues to amplify over the western U.
Upper ridge over Idaho shifts east into Saturday as Pacific trough shifts inland.
The synoptic cold front extending from southeastern IA southwest through northwestern MO to southeastern KS will move southeastward through our forecast area tonight as the upper level trough over the Plains sweeps southeastward through the region. Although the best instability was along and east-southeast of the effective boundary which will push southeast of our forecast area by this evening, there may still be at least isolated to widely scattered showers and storms along or ahead of the cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Cooler and less humid conditions can be expected tonight, mainly across northeast MO, with falling surface dew points across the entire area on Saturday leading to less humid conditions.
133 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper level trough with embedded weather disturbance is now exiting the area to the east taking with it earlier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow aloft continues Saturday night with an upper ridge over the Rockies. These winds draw moisture northward into the High Plains.
31 Along the northern periphery of an upr ridge over the GOM, north and central Georgia will be within a W-NW flow aloft.
Aloft - A short wave trough slides from the northern and central plains to the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley regions while a ridge resides over FL. Surface - High pressure offshore the Canadian Maritimes moves along Latitude 40 while ridging back over the Gulf of Mexico. The ridging. Weak and stacked upper, to mid to surface ridging will meander and hold over the region from the Western Atlantic across the FL Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Atlantic high pressure ridges west. to the Gulf of Mexico until about mid-week when the ridge begins to lift north.
Overall, the weak upper level trough was filling. The GFS and ECMWF show the 500 mb ridge will build over the area through the weekend. Otherwise, the building upper level high pressure ridge will help lower rain chances and up daytime high temperatures for the 4th of July holiday weekend.
322 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A cold front will approach the region tonight into Saturday providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
The early July sun will help warm temperatures up rapidly during the day, but with a cooler boundary layer from the departing airmass, afternoon max temperatures will be below normal. As the low level jet increases and with a return of higher theta-e air, elevated thunderstorms should be possible along the Oklahoma/Kansas border from Clark to Barber counties sometime Saturday night.
Sat looks to be dry and seasonal, as weak ridging moves across the plains. Could see a slightly better chance of thunder over SE KS, including Chanute, as a cold frontal zone pushes SE across the area.
With a ridge of high pressure building into the region from the west, the weather for NE Montana will shift to a warmer and drier pattern. The exiting Canadian Plains low pressure system could still sneak a few rain showers over our far NE corner zone late tonight, but should be minimal if any at all, based on best model consensus.
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Northwest flow regime settling over the region will usher in a cooler airmass, knocking a few degrees off of recent afternoon highs. Lows are expected in the low to mid 50s. This will bring warmer temperatures with highs around 80 east of I-29 to upper 80s over south central SD.
Its looking more and more like the first half of the holiday weekend will be favorable for outdoor activities as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and brings light northerly winds will cooler, drier air and plenty of sunshine. The lone exception is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night as a cold front passes through the region.
303 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over the northern Rockies, with a cold front east of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough over the Dakotas, with high amplitude ridge along the west coast. After the cooler weather of late this week, temperatures will rise over the weekend as ridge to the west shifts east over the Rockies. Highs each day will be back in the 80s to around 90 degrees across the plains, with some 70s across the higher Black Hills.
305 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 There has been some shower and weak thunder development over the far eastern FA, but so far the high resolution models have been overdone with their pcpn coverage depiction. This will bring down some cooler 500mb temps as well, which could lead to additional shower development in the afternoon, which would mainly be along and north of the highway 2 corridor.
The storms should dissipate this evening, with the loss of diurnal heating and as the trough axis shifts to our east.
Further west, some mid level moisture will move into southern Colorado for a some storms over the higher terrain. Hot temperatures are expected and monsoonal high pressure is forecast to develop as we go through the period.
The temperature forecast will also be challenging due to clouds and rain, as well as the cold front moving into the region.
301 PM PDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the West Coast will gradually build inland through the weekend for dry conditions in northeast California and western Nevada.
Currently, we remain under northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging over the western CONUS and troughing to our east. Upper level low over northern Manitoba rotating S/WV impulses through our region, with one of these embedded vorticity maximums responsible for the extensive low/mid level clouds over central and eastern areas of the state today. Feel more confident western and south central areas will be on the cooler side. Daytime highs will warm with WAA west and south into the low/mid 80s thanks to upper level ridging shifting east into the Rockies.
with upper ridge over FL. Consensus guidance supports high temp forecast in the lower 90s inland. Upper ridge axis will be positioned just south of the area, so the steering flow should push the storms back towards the Atlantic coast after the seabreezes collide and storms increase in intensity and coverage. The high moisture content and very unstable atmosphere will support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. A very moist and unstable airmass with a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge will help produce daily seabreeze storms over ne Fl/se Ga.
High pressure aloft will settle into the area Saturday.
Now that the trough axis has crossed the region, northwest onshore low-level flow will maintain the depth of this. In short, a ridge of high pressure will strengthen during the upcoming week, with the center of said high located near the four Corners.
Thunderstorms may develop across the Red River area this afternoon as a weak cold front heads south. Scattered convection is expected to develop along a weak cold front north of KABI this evening.
217 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday.
344 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Upper-level analysis reveals a departing trough exiting the Rocky Mountain states into the high plains this Friday afternoon. Behind this trough, slightly below seasonal average temperatures have filtered in from the north. On Saturday, weak short-term ridging aloft will move over the forecast region. A few dry thunderstorms may materialize along the higher terrain of the San Juans and southern Divide, however coverage will be very low and most of the CWA will remain dry.
High pressure ridge axis will be draped across central FL peninsula and adjacent Atlc and produce a light south to southwest flow turning onshore in a E/SE sea breeze near the coast. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s over the interior and near 90 beaches with peak heat indices around 105.
137 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Surface map at 18Z shows a ridge of high pressure situated to our east with a cold front approaching the Ohio Valley to our northwest.
Cool cyclonic flow from the cutoff upper low to our northwest will keep clouds and a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the picture for Saturday. Models are in general agreement with the upper level trof and potent vorticity maxima diving southeastward across the forecast area Saturday night.
As far as late afternoon/evening development, both the synoptic cold front to the north and the outflow boundary farther south are potential foci. However, given the aforementioned mesoanalysis data, will hedge POPs toward the higher side of guidance across northern portions of the forecast area.
331 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper trough and cold front will move through the region tonight. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid 80s tomorrow. Lows in the lower 70s tonight will drop back into the 60s tomorrow night.
As of early this afternoon, visible satellite imagery showed a trailing outflow boundary into central Missouri through east central Kansas, as well as a surface cold front sagging southward soon to overtake the boundary. High pressure will remain in control on Saturday with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
1122 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over the northern Rockies with a cold front east of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough over the Dakotas, with high amplitude ridge along the west coast. Low amplitude upper trough is extending across the central CONUS this morning with the main axis slowly crossing eastern WY though SD into MN. Upper ridging will build in for the weekend with warm air advection returning.
127 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A cold front will approach the region today into Saturday providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
230 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 224 PM CDT Modest upper troughing is centered over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today with several low amplitude disturbances rotating across the local area through tomorrow. Conditions overnight are expected to be dry with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60s. Upper trough axis is expected to push overhead tomorrow with height rises building overhead from midday on.
A weak trough will move across the northern half of the state bringing with it just enough moisture and instability for afternoon/evening thunderstorms for the weekend.
139 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of high pressure extending from off the coast of southern California, east into Texas. Ridging extended up the west coast of the CONUS into western Canada, while a broad, low amplitude trough of low pressure extended from central Canada south into the north central CONUS. Have opted for the warmer MAV guidance. Skies will clear as well, and with drier air pushing into the forecast area from the northwest, overnight lows will bottom out in the lower to middle 50s.
Highs will be close to yesterday (maybe just a few degrees cooler) -- 60s near the water with 70s and 80s inland. Weakening high pressure aloft over California will offer up slight cooling across the area today and Saturday, however temperatures are expected to remain around normal through the weekend and the coming holiday. Temperatures are expected to range from upper the 50s to lower 70s at the coast with upper 70s to lower 90s for many inland locations, locally warmer in far inland spots. SFO Bridge Approach.
222 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Northwest flow aloft will be over the area with a large high pressure ridge to the west. As the high pressure ridge begins to shift east Saturday, temperatures will warm. Isolated showers may from over the higher mountains of the north. The ridge will continue moving east Saturday night with a weak low pressure trough from the Pacific moving into Idaho and western Montana.
254 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday.
300 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows mid level ridging centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico moving and building to the west. Rua There is good agreement that the mid level ridge will continue to work to the west and be centered basically over the forecast area through the weekend into the holiday.
304 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Mid and upper level troughing remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with moist cyclonic low level flow across the area. Temperatures today will range from the lower 60s north to mid 70s south. Upper level pattern features large scale troughing from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes this weekend. Highs on Tue should rise into the low 80s over much of the area away from any lake moderation. Cannot completely rule out some isold shra/tsra activity Mon or for the 4th, but chances look pretty limited with high pressure at the sfc dominating the weather.
639 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
Could see brief MVFR ceilings in the pre-dawn hours when the lowered inversion has the lowest dew point depression. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas provides subsidence across southwest TX this afternoon. /issued 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge across west Texas and 500mb shear axis across the lower TX coast will provide subsidence across the CWA today. The shear axis will move westward tonight as the 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico builds westward. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s today.
Some activity developing along the wind shift line from central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa with some additional activity developing over northern and central Minnesota ahead of a short wave trough dropping southeast across the Dakotas. The upper level low currently over Manitoba will slide southeast and weaken as it becomes absorbed into the mean trough from an upper level low east of Hudsons Bay. Even though the system will be weakening, the short wave trough will still be fairly strong as it crosses the northern Great Lakes. This is also when the cold front associated with this system will be working across the region. The low level moisture transport does increase Saturday night but is focused out ahead of the short wave trough over northeast Wisconsin into Michigan.
VFR conditions continue this afternoon with high pressure building over the region. The weakening shear axis aloft will shift more to the west as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico also pushes further west through the end of the week.
317 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 After the widespread triple digits yesterday, a convectively aided cold front that moved into the area this morning has helped to keep the South Plains and southern Texas Panhandle in the 80s and 90s this afternoon. Saturday should start cloudy, though a gradual return to sun is expected during the afternoon as the front begins to lift back northward as a warm front. This front may provide a minimal thunder chance through the day, though CI is more certain over the higher terrain of eastern NM.
Lows tonight will be slightly cooler than previous nights due to the frontal passage in the upper 50s and low 60s.
1235 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper level trough with embedded weather disturbance is now exiting the area to the east taking with it earlier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
Temperatures have remained cool for the end of June, only in the lower 70s. Upper ridging will be taking place over Colorado as the weekend progresses with warmer temperatures returning.
257 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
Chances will end once long wave trough passes southeast KS around midnight.
A warming trend will dominate the weather through the short term as high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies.
/issued 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Mid level ridging will stretch from North Central Mexico to the East Gulf and Florida in the short term. Should see a mix of clouds and sun during the day Saturday with high temperature readings in the lower 90s along the coast to near the century mark out west.
Upper level pattern features large scale troughing from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes this weekend. Highs on Tue should rise into the low 80s over much of the area away from any lake moderation. Cannot completely rule out some isold shra/tsra activity Mon or for the 4th, but chances look pretty limited with high pressure at the sfc dominating the weather.
327 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Overall forecast remains on track as a weak cold front continues to sag through the area, roughly bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast at midday. We will also have to see if convection originating over the higher terrain of NM can survive its track across the plains and into West Texas. /issued 358 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ The synoptic situation this morning sees near zonal flow in the eastern part of the country with high amplitude ridging along the Pacific Coast. The ridge out west will flatten somewhat over the remainder of the weekend as a trough comes ashore the Pacific Northwest as it weakens.
236 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper trough swinging through western Nebraska this afternoon will move east of the area by this evening. Lows tonight very close to previous forecast from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
A more amplified long wave trough will approach the region late tonight and into tomorrow morning, setting off our best chance for area-wide rain in the forecast period.
251 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A mid-level vort is still helping to spark some showers across the central/south as a secondary frontolytic cold front is helping to spark some thundershowers heading into our central/north.
SPC/RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg nosing into our SW zones with surface dewpoints in the low 70s. could still be an isolated shower through Sat morning (especially in the east) as main trough axis passes.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Mid level ridging will stretch from North Central Mexico to the East Gulf and Florida in the short term. Should see a mix of clouds and sun during the day Saturday with high temperature readings in the lower 90s along the coast to near the century mark out west.
The higher resolution models continue to show rain ending around 3z and redeveloping shortly before 12z. Opted for the higher res and tried not to over do it. As the upper ridge amplifies to our west over the southern Plains and into the northern Gulf, expect boundary layer temperatures to warm.