Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most of the leftover clouds from the high boundary layer moisture across the east central are moving west and north and spreading out, and should also dissipate as the boundary layer moisture mixes out. As storms move out of the James River valley and high pressure at the surface slides east, there may be a window for some fog development here as well later this morning. Rising heights in the mid to upper levels and high pressure at the surface will keep things dry until chances of thunderstorms return to the far northwest by late tonight.
137 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build into the area this week. Bermuda High off the coast will continue ridging into the area as an upper level trough holds to our west from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS River Valley. High temperatures will be below normal in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Highs will be cooler normal in the mid to upper 80s.
As short waves round the top of the upper ridge chance of thunderstorms increase if capping can be overcome tomorrow afternoon.
1230 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
132 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Expecting another hot one today thanks to high pressure aloft and a relatively unchanging pattern. As the main ridging aloft begins to broaden and spread out across most of the central CONUS we will see the jet stream shift further north to more over the Canadian border. This means conditions will remain rather static until the high begins to break down and we re-enter the mainstream flow.
An upper level ridge will be centered over the Plains today and Tuesday. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s both days.
The center of the upper high will remain to our west through mid to late week. High temps will remain mostly in the mid to upper 90s until the upper high pushes eastward and settles over the region.
Marco's mid/upper level moisture has sheared off and is displaced to the northeast of the low level center. At high levels, a deep layer ridge over the southwest Atlantic builds west into the southeast US and eastern Gulf. The building of the ridge to the east supports a northwest spread of the deep moisture over area Gulf waters.
1131 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Broad upper ridging continues over the western/central CONUS, with high pressure centered over the Four Corners.
1249 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Stationary trough across central South Dakota with warm front in the vicinity of the highway 14 corridor. This warm front will lead to mass convergence north of I-90, and could see a small uptick in very elevated (ceilings around 10-12K) convective activity through 15Z or so. Have sided with lows toward the warmer side of guidance.
1130 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge -- centered invof the 4-Corners and extending eastward across the Rockies into the Central Plains -- will persist through mid-week. Isolated convection emanating from the Palmer Divide and/or Cheyenne Ridge cannot be entirely ruled out across western portions of Yuma/Kit Carson counties during the late afternoon and early evening hours each day, though, with such weak steering flow.
High pressure will remain centered near the Four Corners region through midweek. High pressure remains parked over the Four Corners this morning, and the resultant southerly flow has drawn deep moisture into Utah and southwest Wyoming. With this moisture in place, the area will see another round of convection this afternoon into the early evening, primarily centered over the higher terrain. With the ridge expanding and flattening a bit, the forecast area will be under a more westerly flow beginning Tuesday.
311 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Much discussed upper high was still over the western CONUS with clear skies over the central Plains.
201 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 A large upper level ridge sits over much of the western and central United States. It is expected to migrate east as the week progresses acting as a large barrier keeping weather systems north of the region as they ride around the edge of the ridge. The upper level ridge is expected to break down to more zonal flow.
Today, increasing moisture and instability associated with an impulse will bring a threat of isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain across eastern OR.
1233 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Dry weather will persist in the short term due to a lack of moisture overhead as broad ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Central CONUS. This should keep cloud cover scarce across the area, which in combination with upper ridging and 1000-850mb thicknesses in the 1425-1437 meter range during peak heating, will result in above normal temperatures climbing into the mid-90s or so area-wide for both today and Tuesday.
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Very weak upper level flow was ongoing over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today as a summertime high pressure system remained positioned over the Great Basin. Mean troughing persisted to the east as the Ozarks were under atmospheric suppression within the inflection of these two long waves. Hot and dry conditions were felt at the surface as temperatures warmed into the low 90s this afternoon.
326 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The very hot weather will continue for the next several days, but there is relief in sight with an expected cold front that moves in by the upcoming weekend. A strong upper level ridge remains firmly in place across the Rockies at least for the next couple of days, although it is forecast to flatten slightly by midweek as a couple of weak disturbances move through the northern Plains.
307 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The longwave upper-level ridge axis over the Intermountain West will slowly shift eastward toward the Plains over the next 36 hours, leading to the well-advertised above average temperatures and abundant sunshine. Currently Tuesday looks to be a degree or two warmer than today, but dew points will drop by about that much as well, leading to slightly lower Heat Index values.
Water vapor continues to show a trough of low pressure along the West Coast this afternoon, with southwesterly flow aloft over the region. While some patchy fog will be possible late tonight and Tuesday morning, dry conditions will prevail at the higher elevations.
Bigger pattern change still looking more confident for the weekend as more amplified upper trough shifts out of BC Canada into the PacNW states and Idaho.
311 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
A weak inverted trough will remain just south and east of the forecast area through tomorrow.
Afternoon highs will thus not be quite as hot but still seasonably warmer than average for this time of year nearing the end of August in the low to mid 90s.
The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of the upper ridge over the west Atlantic today, keeping elevated PoPs in the forecast. The Atlantic upper ridge will flatten a bit on Tuesday, though a tongue of deep tropical moisture will remain across the forecast area.
225 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Large upper ridge persists over the Great Basin region, centered over the Four Corners area. Low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s expected. Upper ridge axis shifts into the northern plains on Tuesday, and even warmer air will advect into the CWA with southerly flow ahead of a surface trof.
602 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) The area will remain under the influence of the broad ridge aloft that covers much of the southwest U. There is an inverted trough the begins to extend toward the area from southwest Texas tomorrow, but there looks to be no real effect on sensible weather in the area through tomorrow, except for perhaps an increase in cirrus tomorrow afternoon.
Upper ridge is centered over the Four Corners region and encompasses much of the Plains. At the surface lee troughing is in place with ridging from the Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Not much is expected to change for Tonight through Tue with upper ridging remaining in place from the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains. By Fri evening what is left of Laura will be moving into the Tennessee Valley with the upper ridge pushing slightly south, encompassing TX and NM. This will allow a weak cold front to attempt to move into the area, which will also bring some small precip chances to the area for Fri night into Sun. In addition, this feature looks to also bring slightly cooler air, knocking highs back down closer to seasonal normals for the weekend into the start of the work week.
719 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build overhead and bring hotter temperatures most of this week. Thunderstorms have been quite active across the lower deserts west of Tucson early this afternoon. Easterly flow will try to bring storms into the lower deserts during the evening hours, gradually weakening as it moves farther west. After today, the position of the high continues to meander about the Four Corners region, keeping us in a favorable pattern for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity.
629 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 A large upper level ridge sits over much of the western and central United States. It is expected to migrate east as the week progresses acting as a large barrier keeping weather systems north of the region as they ride around the edge of the ridge. The upper level ridge is expected to break down to more zonal flow.
The southwestern portion of the forecast area still resides on the warmer air side of a nearly stationary surface frontal boundary, and is experiencing temperatures warming through the upper 80s to lower 90s on a light southerly wind. Still tracking the PVA/UVV associated with a subtle s/w impulse now depicted to be over Mobridge. While this is happening, the stationary boundary over the region is forecast to lift north as a warm front on Tuesday, switching winds around to the south-southeast over pretty much the entire forecast area.
Expecting another hot one today thanks to high pressure aloft and a relatively unchanging pattern. As the main ridging aloft begins to broaden and spread out across most of the central CONUS we will see the jet stream shift further north to more over the Canadian border. This means conditions will remain rather static until the high begins to break down and we re-enter the mainstream flow.
The very hot weather will continue for the next several days, but there is relief in sight with an expected cold front that moves in by the upcoming weekend. A strong upper level ridge remains firmly in place across the Rockies at least for the next couple of days, although it is forecast to flatten slightly by midweek as a couple of weak disturbances move through the northern Plains.
Max temps again hot, pushing 100f over the lower Ark Valley.
We should settle into a more benign pattern from Tuesday onward as the area remains in southwest flow aloft on the periphery of a broad eastern Pacific trough.
Feel safe enough to drop the low pops we held along the far southern fcst area. As short waves round the top of the upper ridge chance of thunderstorms increase if capping can be overcome tomorrow afternoon.
Tropical Storm warnings continue for the Lower and Middle Keys and surrounding waters. In addition, a coastal flood advisory is now in effect for the Lower Keys, given the persistent east to southeast flow and tidal anomalies that are already starting a half-foot above tide table predictions.
534 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Tropical Storm Marco continues to weaken this afternoon under the effects of strong wind shear and is expected to become a tropical depression or remnant low pressure system by tonight.
Large upper ridge persists over the Great Basin region, centered over the Four Corners area. Low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s expected. Upper ridge axis shifts into the northern plains on Tuesday, and even warmer air will advect into the CWA with southerly flow ahead of a surface trof.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we saw today.
624 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The longwave upper-level ridge axis over the Intermountain West will slowly shift eastward toward the Plains over the next 36 hours, leading to the well-advertised above average temperatures and abundant sunshine. Currently Tuesday looks to be a degree or two warmer than today, but dew points will drop by about that much as well, leading to slightly lower Heat Index values.
We remain in a quiet, typical late summer weather pattern, with high pressure over the central Plains in control of the sensible weather pattern. Can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm through this afternoon as a weak trof passes mainly north of the region. The central Plains ridge will build eastward Tuesday, and increasing H5 heights will allow temperatures to warm a degree or two from Monday's values. into the lower to middle 90s.
753 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build into the area this week. As Marco continues to move west along with the upper high, moisture will remain anomalously high but decrease slightly into tonight with westerly flow developing. Clouds remain in place overnight with lows not dropping all that much from current temperatures across the area, into the low to mid 70s. Highs will be cooler normal in the mid to upper 80s.
629 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Very weak upper level flow was ongoing over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today as a summertime high pressure system remained positioned over the Great Basin. Mean troughing persisted to the east as the Ozarks were under atmospheric suppression within the inflection of these two long waves. Hot and dry conditions were felt at the surface as temperatures warmed into the low 90s this afternoon.
High pressure remains anchored off to the east and an upper trough has also slipped to the east of Middle Tennessee.
/DC/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Tropical Storm Marco continues to weaken this afternoon under the effects of strong wind shear and is expected to become a tropical depression or remnant low pressure system by tonight.
A broad upper level ridge anchored over the area will lead to mostly clear skies and calm winds throughout the TAF period across all sites.
932 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 High pressure over the region again tonight, with a slight increase in dew points noted compared to 24 hours ago. This supports overnight lows slightly warmer than last night as forecast. A broad upper level ridge anchored over the area will lead to mostly clear skies and calm winds throughout the TAF period across all sites.
Cloud cover and rain coverage should pick up after 06Z when a quasi-warm front lifts toward the area. Guidance supports PoPs generally staying 50% or less, with the highest values over NE AL (near the strongest lift). The TN Valley will remain on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge on Tuesday, with southerly flow continuing to filter moisture across the area.
A tail-end of a cold front that extends from low pressure in Quebec southwest into Upstate New York will slowly sag southward into the PBZ CWA by late in the day. Convection will then likely wind down towards the evening, although some models are initiating further convection on 1) the upwind side of the leftover cold pool in Ohio and 2) the actual cold front as it moves southward across PA during the late evening.
Some of this may lift and spread into some midslope and ridgetop locations overnight. Upper ridging will slowly build in from the south, leading to warming temperatures aloft. However, cyclonic flow stemming from an upper low digging into Quebec, will keep heights from rising too quickly.
High pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest over the next several days.
740 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Much discussed upper high was still over the western CONUS with clear skies over the central Plains.
Latest water vapor imagery over the CONUS shows a ridge axis along the Rockies, a trough moving through the Ohio Valley and into the northeastern CONUS and the subtropical ridge building into the southeastern CONUS. The effects of the subtropical ridge and high cloudiness over the area have kept thunderstorms limited, with maybe a slight increase in thunderstorms possible during the late afternoon hours as we reach our peak heating. Overnight lows will be a couple of degrees warmer in the morning, given the increase in cloud cover, with overnight lows falling into the lower to mid 70s. The TN Valley will remain on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge on Tuesday, with southerly flow continuing to filter moisture across the area.
534 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Large upper ridge persists over the Great Basin region, centered over the Four Corners area. Low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s expected. Upper ridge axis shifts into the northern plains on Tuesday, and even warmer air will advect into the CWA with southerly flow ahead of a surface trof.
1144 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Tropical Storm Laura impacts continue at this hour across the Lower and Middle Keys, though winds have now peaked and a slow downtrend in hazards has commenced. The Tropical Storm Warning is canceled for the Middle Keys as gradient winds have diminished, but the warning remains in effect for the Lower Keys. This feature will slowly translate westward over the Lower Keys overnight, brining higher gusts and the potential a brief tornado. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the nearshore and offshore coastal waters of the Lower Keys and all points westward.
320 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Currently across the country, high pressure remains over the Four Corners region in the southwest U. while upper ridging remains in place across the central CONUS.
227 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Expansive upper ridge remains over much of the western CONUS ahead of a trough off the coast of British Columbia and extending out to the eastern Pacific. With high pressure still in place, a persistence forecast holds with continued southwesterly winds and sunny skies.
327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An upper level ridge will remain over the region today, allowing highs to once again warm into the lower to middle 90s.
An approaching low pressure system over Montana will cause the warm front to lift northward today. Southerly winds in the lower levels will bring much above normal temps into the CWA with highs reaching the upper 80s in western MN, to +100 in central South Dakota. Late this afternoon through tonight, an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will slowly track across western South Dakota. Convection may develop along the cold front over north central SD, or where the EML could be slightly cooler.
350 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 A strong upper ridge remains locked in over the southwestern U. This ridge will continue to promote dry weather over W TX/SE NM and hold temperatures above normal into this weekend.
137 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
1151 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Very weak upper level flow was ongoing over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today as a summertime high pressure system remained positioned over the Great Basin. Mean troughing persisted to the east as the Ozarks were under atmospheric suppression within the inflection of these two long waves. Hot and dry conditions were felt at the surface as temperatures warmed into the low 90s this afternoon.
153 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build into the area this week. As Marco continues to move west along with the upper high, moisture will remain anomalously high. Clouds remain in place overnight with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70s. Highs will be cooler normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Weak vort max moving over a flattening ridge may bring a few thunderstorms across the northwest late tonight into tomorrow morning. From there a weak warm front sets up for Tuesday bringing more warm conditions and perhaps a few thunderstorms. A weak cold front then moves through later in the day Tuesday through Tuesday night which may be the focus for more thunderstorms.
As we move into the afternoon, expect temperatures to run very near yesterday's values, perhaps a degree or so warmer in most spots.
204 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Upper ridge axis is shifting from the Rockies to the northern plains, with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. Even warmer air will advect into the region today ahead of the slow- moving trough, especially across south central SD. Lesser chances of storms expected Fri/Sat as a transient ridge migrates over the northern plains behind a cool front.
An inverted trough will remain over the area while slowly moving westward. Expect this trough to produce an afternoon Cu field, along with very isolated late afternoon/early evening showers.
The upper level ridge is remain firmly in place and southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will return during the afternoon.
1037 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The longwave upper-level ridge axis over the Intermountain West will slowly shift eastward toward the Plains over the next 36 hours, leading to the well-advertised above average temperatures and abundant sunshine. Currently Tuesday looks to be a degree or two warmer than today, but dew points will drop by about that much as well, leading to slightly lower Heat Index values.
1048 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) The area will remain under the influence of the broad ridge aloft that covers much of the southwest U. There is an inverted trough the begins to extend toward the area from southwest Texas tomorrow, but there looks to be no real effect on sensible weather in the area through tomorrow, except for perhaps an increase in cirrus tomorrow afternoon.
It looks like the best shot will be if something can initiate in the higher terrain of the Black Hills this afternoon, though any activity that forms will be battling the stout ridge with southeastward progression into the forecast area.
High pressure will build overhead and bring hotter temperatures most of this week. After today, the position of the high continues to meander about the Four Corners region, keeping us in a favorable pattern for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity.
A large inverted mid-level trough will linger over much of the region, and the weak ascent offered by this system may be sufficient to trigger isolated to widely scattered showers or thunderstorms over eastern North Texas by this afternoon. /Issued 318 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ A complex weather set-up will continue through much of the week as an inverted upper trough moves across the state, and two tropical systems edge closer to the region.
The weekend will be a bit cooler with highs back to near normal.
354 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
Temps this afternoon will trend a degree or two warmer than yesterday, so most locations should get into the lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid/upper 90s, highest west of I- 65 where dewpoints will push 70.
1057 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 A large upper level ridge sits over much of the western and central United States. It is expected to migrate east as the week progresses acting as a large barrier keeping weather systems north of the region as they ride around the edge of the ridge. The upper level ridge is expected to break down to more zonal flow.