Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
411 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Slightly drier high pressure will briefly build in from the north tonight. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the weekend while an inland trough prevails. The highest amounts are 1,200 J/kg across parts of the Charleston Tri-county and the southernmost counties in our forecast area. The lowest amounts are along the SC/GA border with around 600 J/kg. A mid/upper lvl ridge of high pressure will extend across the southeastern United States this weekend, supporting a dry northerly wind and considerably less shower/thunderstorm coverage.
Little change in the overall pattern seen for Friday as the CWA resides under west-southwesterly flow atop an upper high that will be building slowly westward. Next impulse coming around the periphery of the upper high should allow for widely scattered showers and tstms especially in the afternoon and evening.
Upper level ridge remains centered over the southern plains allowing southwest flow to bring deep monsoon moisture into central and eastern Utah. Still some weak CIN in place in these areas as of 1700 UTC, but this should erode over the next couple of hours allowing convection to develop over the higher terrain before drifting Northeast over the adjacent valleys. Enough moisture has lifted into west central Utah and east central Nevada that even with a very modest SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg isolated convection may be able to develop over the higher terrain in east central Nevada and then drift into far western Utah late this afternoon and evening.
Light and variable winds under the high and recent rainfall will set up the possibility of patchy ground fog. With lows in the low to mid 60s and lower dew points large areas with 100 percent RH are not likely at this point. Tomorrow, the upper ridge builds in briefly as the next trough digs into Montana. Winds will increase out of the north and then east tomorrow afternoon as a trough of low pressure gets going in the lee of the Northern Rockies.
1227 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 This will be the hottest day of the heatwave so far as the RAP and GFS are showing upper ridge building over the area today.
Generally dry conditions can be expected this weekend, with just some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain of southern and eastern Utah.
533 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 High pressure has moved off the coast.
the trough of low pressure and wind shift line at the afc will be near the sd/nd/mn border region this aftn/eve but warm air aloft and lack of upper level dynamics is anticipated to prevent tstm formation.
High pressure aloft is at its peak intensity at midday, with a clear sky and temperatures soaring on their way to 100 as of noon. NAM forecasts scattered thunderstorms this evening along the periphery of the ridge, across SE Colorado and SW Nebraska, with a few storms hugging the northern CWA border overnight. Weak vorticity max rounding the ridge axis appears to be the only forcing evident. Still hot! High pressure remains quite strong, with no changes in thickness or 850 mb temperatures noted. Hot and dry for most, but isolated thunderstorms may find their way into northern zones by evening where the high pressure ridge's influence is weakest.
High pressure aloft is at its peak intensity at midday, with a clear sky and temperatures soaring on their way to 100 as of noon. NAM forecasts scattered thunderstorms this evening along the periphery of the ridge, across SE Colorado and SW Nebraska, with a few storms hugging the northern CWA border overnight. Weak vorticity max rounding the ridge axis appears to be the only forcing evident. Still hot! High pressure remains quite strong, with no changes in thickness or 850 mb temperatures noted. Hot and dry for most, but isolated thunderstorms may find their way into northern zones by evening where the high pressure ridge's influence is weakest. Relief from the excessive heat will come by the beginning of the weekend as the upper ridge begins to break down.
High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s with some valley locations reaching the lower 100s.
123 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure over West Virginia early this morning will drift eastward off the East Coast today. This will allow a warm front to lift northeastward across the region through this evening. A weak cold front will sag southward across the central Great Lakes Friday night.
Dry but cloudy forecast with upper level ridging over the region while strong high pressure down the eastern seaboard into the deep south holds through Wednesday.
522 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Wednesday.
249 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 Due to quasi-zonal flow aloft as well as a low-level thermal ridge, temperatures today are well on their way to reaching afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, about 10-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. A trough extending from the US/Canada border southward through the Northern Plains will translate eastward toward the Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday, with an accompanying cold front expected to push southward through the area on Wednesday afternoon. Given the timing of the front, cooler temperatures will not begin to arrive until after peak heating for all but far northern zones. Thus, highs tomorrow are generally expected to be similar to today, if not a degree or two warmer in some spots due to compressional warming ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.
234 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 A large high pressure system will maintain control of our weather through Wednesday.
249 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will ridge southward and into the forecast area through Wednesday.
322 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and east of the forecast area. Temps range from the lower 30s over portions of northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 50s across far southern SD. Skies will continue to clear in the morning, with mainly sunny skies through the rest of the day, as high pressure moves over and eventually east of the area. Lows will drop near or below freezing Wednesday night under clear skies.
A moisture starved short wave trough is departing the region this afternoon. Yet another weak short wave will move into the Southern Appalachian region on Wednesday; again with little impact due to more low level Gulf blocking over the Southeastern United States. The very gradual warming trend continues in the short term with both min and max temperatures another degree or two warmer across much of the area.
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 A ridge of high pressure extending southwest into the Carolinas will persist through Wednesday.
132 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 High pressure keeps dry weather going through Wednesday, with a warming trend.
621 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure over New England will bring a southerly flow and warmer air to the area on Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
Front seems to be slowing across se Wy and should not make much more progress as lee troffing develops from se Wy into Colorado this morning. The front may actually edge back east into this afternoon but then a stronger surge of cooler air will push south across the CWA this afternoon into this evening bringing much cooler air.
/ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016/ Skies are clear across North Texas early this morning with weak upper ridging and a dry airmass in place. Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough moving into the northwest U. The upper trough will quickly move through the Northern Plains tonight sending a fairly strong cold front southward toward Texas during the day on Wednesday.
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 The quiet fall like weather pattern will continue as high pressure remains anchored over the eastern third of the country. The high pressure influence will continue to produce a dry forecast with mostly clear skies and a persistent cool easterly wind flow. resulting in cooler than normal lows mostly in the 40s once again tonight. resulting in slightly warmer lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area. as mid-level cyclonic flow persists across the Midwest and Great Lakes and a ridge centers over southern TX/eastern Mexico. This places the CWA in a zonal flow in mid/upper levels while the relentless sfc ridging down the Appalachians into Ga finally begins to break up as next weak frontal system approaches.
High pressure will remain centered off the northeastern United States coast through early Wednesday.
Mid level high pressure ridge will continue to build east over South Texas with temperatures expected to warm through the short term. At the surface, an inverted trough of low pressure will continue to move farther west into the western Gulf. Light patchy fog will also be possible overnight in the cooler low-lying areas from Alice to Victoria.
157 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 High pressure keeps dry weather going through Wednesday, with a warming trend.
100 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016 A weak trough moving inland across California will bring cooling and a deeper marine layer through Wednesday.
A strong cold front will blast through the region late tomorrow morning bringing strong surface winds out of the north-northeast. /issued 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016/ The forecast area will be located in-between a broad upper-level ridge over northern Mexico and energetic zonal or weakly cyclonic flow extending from southern California to the southern Rockies. Afternoon highs should range from the middle 80s in the southwest TX Panhandle to the low 90s in the Rolling Plains. Low temps will range from the low 50s in the southwest TX Panhandle to middle 60s in the srn and ern Rolling Plains. The warmth of today will come to an abrupt end as a northern stream wave swinging across the Midwest sends a strong cold front southward through the area. Isentropic upglide will then develop above the surface ridging.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s north and west of Sioux Falls, ranging to the lower 40s in northwest Iowa. Cold northerly wind flow will start moving through, as a high pressure system settle into the area Wednesday night.
225 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 A cold front will arrive Wednesday around sunrise to northwest Oklahoma and bring low clouds and gusty north winds along with drier and cooler air.
243 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Main weather feature for next 24 hours is the strong upper level disturbance moving across the Northern Rockies this afternoon while southern fringe of the wave and associated cold front will push across Northeast Colorado later this evening. Current cold front is draped across Central Wyoming with significant colder airmass behind the front. This activity will continue through much of the evening and even some enhancement of showers with approach of the surface cold front and some weak to moderate ascent noted on QG fields. Behind the cold front tonight expect increasing low clouds to envelope much of the plains before daybreak on Wednesday. Much cooler on the plains Wednesday with high temperatures only in the 50s. On Wednesday night, high pressure will retreat to the east.
the upper level jets that are in position helping to spawn the showers will slowly shift east as the upper level trough over the northern Rockies exits into the Northern Plains. expect cooler temperatures as an associated cold front moves over the northern part of the forecast area. Precipitation will decrease Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.
332 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the forecast package as zonal flow aloft and high pressure near the surface continue to dictate our forecast.
Quiet conditions expected through the next 36 hours as moisture return aids in warmer temperatures overnight and Wednesday. A very weak low-level trough will exist over the Texas coast Wednesday and this, plus the differential heating, could help a few isolated showers and thunderstorms develop in the coastal plains.
354 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 A large area of high pressure will cover the eastern United States through mid-week. A dry cold front will push through the region late in the week, followed by another round of high pressure for the weekend. Overnight temperatures look to be a bit warmer than what was observed this morning owing to a slightly tighter pressure gradient and the possibility of some close-cell stratocumulus moving inland across some coastal counties. Lows will range from the lower 50s far inland to the upper 60s along the Georgia beaches where temperatures will be moderated a bit by the enhanced onshore flow. Dry high pressure centered over the New England coast will continue to wedge down the eastern seaboard through the middle of the week.
256 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 A ridge of high pressure extending southwest into the Carolinas will persist through Wednesday.
Initial focus will come tonight as an upper trough and associated cold front approach the forecast area. Initial convection is expected to develop ahead of the cold front, at or just after midnight, east of the KS/MO border. The best chance for precipitation will be along the cold front and post-frontal regime during much of the daylight hours on Wednesday. Temperatures will quickly become the story as much cooler air filters in behind the front Wednesday, with near steady or falling temperatures expected during the day.
700 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 High pressure keeps dry weather going through Wednesday, with a warming trend.
248 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 A large high pressure system will maintain control of our weather through Wednesday.
258 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 A cold front is poised to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Wednesday with noticeably cooler temperatures expected across northeast Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon.
253 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure along the New England coast will slowly slide offshore through midweek.
1258 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Updated the forecast earlier this morning to lower temperatures by as much as 10-12 degrees due to the low stratus deck moving southeast into the area. Also updated the TAF's to account for the low stratus deck. Analysis has a cold front from eastern South Dakota through central Nebraska into northern Colorado at this time. The north will be much cooler today with the front moving through earlier in the day. Temperatures will be cooler than tonight. We will start out Wednesday with strong height rises at the surface behind a cold front. Much colder air will settle in behind the cold front and Wednesday should feel like a cold and raw day with quite a bit of wind, especially in the morning, and highs in the 50s.
As the region of lift continues to move east, expect precipitation to transition to light rain with warmer temperatures in place.
Snow was gradually spreading south and east this afternoon along with the better upper dynamics as an upper trough was swinging through the region. Wednesday will be sunny, dry and warmer as ridge begins to build in from west.
Meanwhile, a northern stream mid-upper trough was evident in water vapor loop nearing the northern Rockies early this afternoon. This trough will move east in a fairly progressive flow pattern across the northern plains tonight through tomorrow sending a cold front south toward our area. This cold front should reach the northwestern edge of the forecast area by mid afternoon tomorrow and then progress through much of the area during the evening. The cold front should slow and become diffuse Wednesday night.
After that, the polar front jet to our north, which is supporting a surface cold front, will drop down and further enhance lift causing another uptick in showers and storms. High pressure then builds in Wednesday though models indicate a little 'wiggle' in the mean flow possibly bringing very light showery activity down south Wednesday afternoon and evening.
336 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 A cold front will move through the panhandles Wednesday morning. An upper level short wave trough will move through the zonal flow toward the panhandles on Wednesday night.
331 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Primary near/short term meteorological concern is impact that an approaching sharp cold front will have over portions of the forecastdistrict from later tonight into Wednesday. PV analysis and forecast model soundings suggest that a sharp cold front will be moving across eastern portions of the forecast district later tonight causing forecast maximum temperatures on Wednesday to run some 25F to 30F colder(over eastern sections) than maximum temperatures noted this afternoon in combination with areas of low clouds and possible drizzle over some eastern locations.
Winds will remain gusty out of the south-southwest as low pressure develops in Colorado. A dry airmass in the low-mid levels will persist through most of the evening into the first part of the overnight hours therefore no precip is expected until after midnight. A 45kt low level jet will develop overnight across northern Oklahoma nudging into southern Kansas ahead of a strong surface cold front. There will likely be ongoing showers and storms Wednesday morning ahead of the cold front. The cold front is forecasted to be near the interstate 44 corridor during the early afternoon hours with the NAM being a few hours slower with the frontal passage.
232 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will slide to the east today and Wednesday.
1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016 As of 08z, surface cold front was approaching the James River Valley. Surface cold front exits the forecast area prior to 12Z Wednesday, but lingering mid level front could keep a chance of mainly light rain in parts of northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota through mid morning.
344 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend over the area from the north through Wednesday as a weak trough of low pressure lingers offshore.
Dewpoints, even in the Lower Valley, have again mixed out to the low-mid 60's F. Dry air and high pressure aloft are yielding mostly sunny skies. Coastal trough offshore seems to be underperforming, per satellite and radar imagery, so have trimmed back PoP's there for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening. Meanwhile, at the surface, SE winds become re-established on Wednesday as surface ridging retreats toward the NE and pressure falls over the Panhandle region.
The high surf will make dangerous swimming conditions, with a powerful shore break and high rip current risk.
403 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016 An upper trough will slide east across the northern plains tonight. The sfc cold front was passing through our far southeastern counties around Beloit as of 3 pm and cold air advection will continue throughout the night across the entire forecast area.
Light flow generally from the east will continue to usher in dry air in the lower levels, though models indicate some moisture working in aloft, resulting in some scattered high clouds through the period. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will range from the low 80's across south central Alabama to mid 80's across southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi.
A very warm day is forecast out ahead of the next major cold front. The lee trough overnight will push east, with a weak surface vorticity center expected to develop along it by afternoon in west central KS. This downslope component will aid in drying out the low levels and allow the low level thermal ridge to expand east toward the U283 corridor. Tonight, a major cold front will advance south in response to a fairly stout polar stream storm system. The GFS and NAM both show the core of 3-hr MSLP rises on the order of +6 to +8mb advancing southeast across the High Plains. It was agreed (GLD and ICT in particular) to populate the Wind grid with CONSMOS given its typically better performance in these meteorological instances of strong frontal passages down the High Plains.
The aviation community should be pleased with the 24 hour forecast yet again, as a weakening upper trough continues northeast out of the Eastern Lakes into Southeastern Canada through the period. The clouds at the southern edge of the trough will move across the Great Valley; mainly during the first half of the valid forecast.
651 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will move east of the region through Wednesday.
137 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016 Cool weather with night through morning low clouds and fog is expected through Wednesday as a weak upper level trough moves through the region.
1116 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2016 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and east of the forecast area. Light snow accumulations, mostly an inch or less, are expected over portions of northeast WY and western SD, with a couple of inches possible across the higher Black Hills. Upper level analysis has strong trof swinging through the Northern Rockies at the moment. At the surface, cold front has moved south and east of the Forecast area, with high pressure building into northern Montana. Strong upper trof will shift east from the Rockies into the Great Plains. Highs will range from the upper 30s across parts of far northwest SD and northeast WY to the lower 50s over far southern SD. Upper trof axis shifts east of the area with cold Canadian high pressure over western SD Wednesday morning.
VFR with light NE winds expected at all terminals for this afternoon and evening due to high pressure aloft and dry atmospheric column in place. Expect VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours as the 500mb ridge over northwest Mexico provides subsidence across the region. /issued 437 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A 500mb ridge over northwest Mexico will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through most of the forecast period.
A cold front will move through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms to the area, along with a brief cooldown.
523 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will gradually shift off to the east tonight and Wednesday.
Afternoon temps in the low to mid 70s are approximately 5- 10 F degrees above normal. Mild ahead of a sharp cold front which is currently bisecting Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. This is going to be an anafront or a cold front with precipitation focused behind the sfc wind shift. High pressure and a dry, cool air mass build in (PWATs down to 0.
Not to mention, the low level jet will be increasing. /issued 225 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016/ A cold front will arrive Wednesday around sunrise to northwest Oklahoma and bring low clouds and gusty north winds along with drier and cooler air.
1257 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2016 18Z Water Vapor imagery and RUC analysis indicated large H5 trough over the northern Rockies with fairly zonal flow across western Kansas and eastern Colorado. initial surge of cold air behind cold front has pushed across much of the area. followed by timing and impact of strong cold front tonight. Pocket of low static stability in place tonight as strong cold front sweeps across the area around 6z. Highs will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler than today. Overnight Wednesday a compact short wave trough will move through the Tri-State Area, possibly bringing some rainfall with it.
250 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will slide to the east through Wednesday.
115 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 High pressure will slide to the east today and Wednesday.
114 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2016 A southerly flow will allow a warming trend into Wednesday as a high pressure system remains over New England. Clouds will increase on Wednesday with a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, as a cold front moves through the region.
A ridge axis will extend from the Texas gulf coast westward into the eastern Pacific ocean west of the Baja peninsula, with an active northern branch of the jet stream and a series of systems moving through the northern tier of states through the forecast period.
Tonight Through Wednesday A cold low pressure trough moving through the area will bring areas of snow.