Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE MID STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES JUST NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING TO THE SE NOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WIND SPDS INCREASE ENOUGH ALONG THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
623 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. THE STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCRG SUBSIDENCE AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH UTAH/IDAHO. WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT (800-700MB) BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF WYOMING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHWEST.
Upper trough currently moving into the Northwest Pacific coastal region will continue a southeasterly track across the intermountain west and into the Central Plains over the weekend.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING TO THE SE NOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
For tonight high pressure currently centered over MO will glide off to the east but the southerly return flow will be quite light.
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT ATOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S RANGE. A SIMILAR DAY LIKE TODAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS KEEPING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM THE BEAR LODGE TO AT LEAST BLACK HAWK RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR AND WARMER MIN TEMPS. BUT LIKE TODAY DOWNSLOPING WILL AFFECT THE NRN/ERN FOOTHILLS BRINGING WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
830 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 52 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 53 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 26 51 26 57 / 0 0 0 0.
601 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
1052 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT PRECIP RESIDES NEAR THE MAINE COAST. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A WARMER NIGHT THAN WE SAW LAST NIGHT. A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MIXING IS EXPECTED ON FRI AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE WRN US TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKEN ON SAT BUT STILL LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A PAC COLD FRONT TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT AFTN/NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OF ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH WILL EXACERBATE CONDITIONS, AS A STALLING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL HVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
627 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 AVIATION MILD AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INDUCING SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. THE INCIPIENT DRYING SHOULD ENCOURAGE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK. LONGWAVE RIDGING BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE FRIDAY - AND HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
353 PM MST THU DEC 3 2015 QUIET AND SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.
900 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
Winds will then begin to increase out of the southeast behind that ridge axis on Friday with weak warm air advection kicking in. Highs will range from the lower to middle 50s.
630 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED ACTIVITY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA. THE STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCRG SUBSIDENCE AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
41 REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. NO ATLANTIC FETCH WITH THIS FLOW AND SO NO MODERATION OF AIRMASS EXPECTED INTO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN AROUND FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF ALONG THE PAC COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. APPROACHING TROF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT WILL BRING THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WITH ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. EASTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN FORECAST OF LATE DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE CENTRAL U. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR AND PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW. WITH THE MORE NORTHERN POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE FA INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS. MAINLY A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP.
THIS LOW IS SPINNING OFF A CLUMP OF SHOWERS THAT IS MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
534 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 High pressure is building into the Midwest this evening and is expected to continue through the overnight. However, residual moisture trapped in the low levels is keeping stratus over Central Illinois this afternoon. With the loss of the clouds, sfc temps should be able to drop fairly quickly, particularly with light and variable winds under the ridge. At this point, models are not clearing the clouds fast enough to model the low level RH correctly.
MANY LOCATIONS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE CENTRAL U. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR AND PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW. WITH THE MORE NORTHERN POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE FA INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TOOK A GAMBLE AND RAISED THE LOWS IN THE JAMES VALLEY FOR TWO MAIN REASONS. THE WARMER 850MB AIRMASS THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST LAST NIGHT HAS NOW MIGRATED EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CAA IS WINNING OUT WITH THE 32 DEGREE ISOTHERM LOCATED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT FOR A WHILE WITH WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING FROST AND A MAJORITY OF SITES GETTING DOWN TO AT LEAST THE FREEZING MARK. TOMORROW WILL ULTIMATELY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY (ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL) AS THE OVERHEAD AIR MASS BEGINS A SLOW MODERATION. ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE LOWS GETTING DOWN TO FREEZING ARE AGAIN A DECENT BET.
A COLD FRONT SITUATED IN CENTRAL OREGON WILL CROSS SE OREGON/SW IDAHO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 7000 FEET THIS EVENING BUT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT.
High pressure is building into the Midwest this evening and is expected to continue through the overnight. However, residual moisture trapped in the low levels is keeping stratus over Central Illinois this afternoon. With the loss of the clouds, sfc temps should be able to drop fairly quickly, particularly with light and variable winds under the ridge. At this point, models are not clearing the clouds fast enough to model the low level RH correctly.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 TO 300 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. A LIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
Although the lack of cloud cover for tonight would suggest going cooler for overnight mins compared to what was observed last night, surface winds will be turning southerly around the back side of the high after 06z, which will have a moderating influence on temperatures. Locations which were cloudy last night will tend to be cooler tonight, and locations which cleared out late last night will tend to be warmer tonight.
957 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 SFC RIDGING HAS SETTLED SEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND ECNTRL TX THIS EVENING. WITH AREAS OF FROST AGAIN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
Next longwave trough arrives in the Great Basin and the northern Rockies on Friday, with SW flow developing across SW KS by late afternoon.
FOLLOWED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
Most areas will see lows in the lower 30s, with a few readings just below the freezing mark across southeast and southern sections. Sunny skies continue on Friday with south to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph and afternoon highs topping out in the lower 60s.
1022 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 CURRENTLY - A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FOR THE TIME BEING IS LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE LOWER KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE OBSERVED DURING HEAVY SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIMP INTO KEYS WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE DEEP GULF WATERS AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE TONIGHT. AND THEN INCREASE TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN THOSE FAVORED COLDER SPOTS LIKE FT PAYNE AND RUSSELLVILLE. AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINNING TO TURN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ESE. A FAST MOVING UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OVER THE SE STATES SHOULD ALSO HELP MAINTAIN PREDOM MOSTLY CLR/SUNNY SKIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUN. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE THEN HINTING AT A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS LATE SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE REGION.
1006 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED ACTIVITY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA. THE STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCRG SUBSIDENCE AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
720 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES EARLY TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES EARLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR A DRY AND MILD EARLY WINTER WEEKEND.
THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT ALABAMA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
819 PM MST THU DEC 3 2015 AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE STRONGER LEE SIDE SFC TROF DEVELOPING AS WELL.
617 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STAGNATES ACROSS THE AREA. WAS SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRATUS MAY LINGER WELL INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING INVERSION SETTING UP COURTESY OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT. DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 243 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015/ LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH SOME CIRRUS FILLING IN BEHIND THE RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW RECENT TRENDS FOR TEMPS AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.
High pressure centered north of the area will allow a cool and dry airmass to dominate the region tonight.
524 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
IF THE FORECAST WERE TO BUST IT WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARDS THE HIGH SIDE.
AM EXPECTING LOWS TO BE ONCE AGAIN TERRAIN INDUCED WITH THE LOWER LOCATIONS REALLY DROPPING QUITE A BIT TO READINGS WELL BELOW CONSENSUS VALUES.
with a wave over the central part of the country basically trapped beneath the ridge and between the two streams of the westerlies. another mostly clear night with freezing or sub- freezing lows in most places. Upper trough currently moving into the Northwest Pacific coastal region will continue a southeasterly track across the intermountain west and into the Central Plains over the weekend.
858 PM MST THU DEC 3 2015 WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF ALONG THE PAC COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. APPROACHING TROF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT WILL BRING THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WITH ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. EASTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN FORECAST OF LATE DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS.
Skies will remain clear tonight, but the light southerly winds should help to keep overnight lows a bit warmer than last evening with temperatures in the upper 20s. An area of low pressure will advance into the High Plains region on Friday, which will help to increase the pressure gradient over the forecast area a bit with southerly winds gusting upwards of 15-20mph by Friday afternoon. These increasing southerly winds along with continued sunny skies will aid in some warm-air advection on Friday, so have continued to trend warmer for temperatures with highs reaching into the middle 50s. The period will start off with southwest flow aloft and southerly surface winds ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Rockies Friday night.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE STATE MOVING EASTWARD. WHILE THE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SURELY KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
435 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
Updated at 1100 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016 Updated the forecast to add a larger area of patchy freezing fog and include areas of freezing fog mainly over the deeper snowpack of south central/east central KY. With some getting below 10 degrees, freezing fog may tend be a mix of ice crystals and super cooled water droplets. Either way, freezing fog will cause more icy problems. Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight. Freezing fog is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance, but if anything that's too warm given the snow cover.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MID WEEK. A MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF THIS TROUGH A 300MB JET WHICH HAD BEEN POSITIONED OVERTOP UTAH IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET COUPLED WITH A WEAK 700MB TROUGH AXIS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT VERTICAL ASCENT TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ADVANCING SURFACE-700MB TROUGH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH A PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WITHIN A NW FLOW REGIME WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN.
407 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WITH STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
/ISSUED 402 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016/ TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WERE PRESENT WERE STRATUS LINGERED THE LONGEST THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. BROAD RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE TO OUR WEST AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURS BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SEEP INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT ON NORTHERLY WINDS HOWEVER. BROADER UPPER TROUGH.
234 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
In the immediate term, there may be some freezing fog to contend with in the East.
IT'S QUIET A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AS LOWS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S AREAWIDE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND BOTH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. AND RIDGING ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AS THEY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S EAST TO MIDDLE 40S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD AND FINALLY INTO THE CWA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
Canadian high pressure was directly over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today.
344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE RAP WAS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED.
TODAY WILL BE BREEZY AND WARMER. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS THINKING THE AIR WILL WARM UP RATHER WELL. A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE NEAR I-44 TOWARDS 6 AM. BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP. BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
1245 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SATURATING THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET WEATHER DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUIET, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.
346 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
1238 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
Broken to overcast cirrus will continue overnight into Sunday, as the high pressure ridge axis passes SW KS this evening, and SW flow returns on Sunday. 12z NAM is the most aggressive model to redevelop stratus/FZFG again tonight, and included areas of freezing fog in the grids and forecast. Pleasantly mild temperatures expected on Sunday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 40s at Hays, to the lower 60s from Liberal to Elkhart. Associated cold front blows through overnight as well, with gusty N/NW winds through Monday morning. After mild temperatures on Sunday, noticeably colder on Monday, with highs falling back to the low to mid 40s.
Cold front will shift east of the area by mid afternoon Monday with rain chances ending.