Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
450 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a deepening upper low lifting east into western NM. Downstream, diffluent flow aloft was evident over the southern plains, and ridging further downstream over the lower MS River valley. The upper low will lift into southern high plains by this evening, with diffluent flow aloft and tightening low level pressure gradient spreading into the Midsouth. With impressive kinematics a near sure bet, severe weather chances will ride almost entirely on how far north the low level instability axis can build into north MS. By Tuesday evening, a midlevel dry slot will wrap into the Midsouth, as the upper low lifts into the mid-MS River valley.
530 AM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Trough axis currently divides the state, with light snow continuing across central WY. The trough will continue to drift east today,switching winds aloft more from the northwest. Northerly flow will continue into Tuesday as the trough only slowly drift across the central US. Models are picking up on a vort max sweeping southward across eastern WY off the backside of the trough. Most of the period will feature upper-level ridging and pleasant spring weather.
Split flow aloft continues and the water vapor loop shows the northern branch trough entering western ND. Elongated trough axis with several low centers stretch from Saskatchewan to the SD/MN border to the Central Plains. Some of the high res runs and a few of the NBM members have some freezing rain developing over northwestern MN tonight. Model soundings are not very impressive with a warm nose, and think the only chance for any light freezing rain will be if we lose ice in the dendritic growth layer on the backside of the system as it exits the area. There could be some lingering precip Tuesday and into Tuesday night as another vort lobe from the northern branch trough swings through, but kept most of the precip limited to the far eastern tier.
256 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic region early this week bringing dry weather along with warming temperatures. There is a weak backdoor boundary that tries to drop into the Lower MD Eastern Shore in the afternoon. Increasing clouds and milder Tues night as hi pres shifts farther E away from the coast lo pres and a warm front approach from the SW. primarily from W-E INVOF of the warm front.
233 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure along with mostly clear skies will remain over the region through the remainder of today.
119 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will shift to the NC coast this evening.
144 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic region early this week bringing dry weather along with warming temperatures. There is a weak backdoor boundary that tries to drop into the Lower MD Eastern Shore in the afternoon. Increasing clouds and milder Tues night as hi pres shifts farther E away from the coast lo pres and a warm front approach from the SW. primarily from W-E INVOF of the warm front.
This will drag a cold front southeastward into our area late tonight and tomorrow morning. Between the cloud cover and strong northwest winds providing cold advection, highs tomorrow will only reach the low 50s across the Big Country and the mid to upper 50s further south.
159 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 After a near average day today, temperatures will take successive steps warmer through midweek.
As the low ejects northeast across the southern and central Plains, precipitation coverage and intensity increase with moderate to locally heavy rainfall likely across the forecast area this evening and overnight. Flooding shouldn't be much of a concern given little instability which will keep rainfall rates on the low end. As a cold front moves into north central Kansas Tuesday morning, temperatures cool enough for snow to mix with rain.
(This evening through Tuesday) A mid-level trough will continue to stay over the Southern Plains through tomorrow, allowing for additional lift across the area. A cold front will begin to push through the area late this evening, and gusty northerly winds will follow in its wake.
A warm front will continue a chance of light rain and snow across eastern Oregon and the West Central Mountains today, with up to an inch of snow accumulation on the highest peaks. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but still a couple degrees below normal. Warmer temperatures will develop later this week as a ridge moves overhead.
230 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will will gradually slide offshore tonight and Tuesday.
With the mean trough axis of the departing system now over New Mexico, northerly flow pushes cooler and drier air into the region.
High clouds will be on the increase as the day progresses: however, they will do little to impede the warming trend as afternoon highs top out in the lower 70s. as a pair of upper-level troughs pivot across the Rockies this morning. The surface pressure gradient will continue to tighten today in between departing high pressure and developing low pressure over the Plains. Model soundings suggest that the troposphere will become saturated from the top-down as parcels overrun a surface warm front that'll be displaced well south of the region. Overnight lows will hold steadily in the lower 50s.
1148 AM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The high wind warning that was in effect for srn Meade, Pennington and Custer county plains has expired, a wind advisory is now in effect for those areas through this afternoon. 08z surface analysis had low over eastern SD with cold front into northeast CO, almost through KICR. Water vapour loop showed upper trough from southern SK to AZ/NM. Main energy at bottom of trough. Evolution of upper trough still main weather maker this week. Today/tonight, -SN ends this morning as drier air pushes into the CWA and synoptic forcing associated with upper trough moves northeast.
1052 AM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Trough axis currently divides the state, with light snow continuing across central WY. The trough will continue to drift east today,switching winds aloft more from the northwest. Northerly flow will continue into Tuesday as the trough only slowly drift across the central US. Models are picking up on a vort max sweeping southward across eastern WY off the backside of the trough. Most of the period will feature upper-level ridging and pleasant spring weather.
158 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 A weak and dry cold front will drift south across the Commonwealth this afternoon and evening. An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania early this week.
255 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 A weak and dry cold front will drift south across the Commonwealth this afternoon and evening. An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania early this week.
1235 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure builds in today, then a weak cold front moves through tonight.
336 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday. High pressure will return thereafter. Sprawling high pressure centered along the North Carolina Crystal Coast this afternoon will slowly slide offshore tonight while keeping its influence on the region.
907 AM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The high wind warning that was in effect for srn Meade, Pennington and Custer county plains has expired, a wind advisory is now in effect for those areas through this afternoon. 08z surface analysis had low over eastern SD with cold front into northeast CO, almost through KICR. Water vapour loop showed upper trough from southern SK to AZ/NM. Main energy at bottom of trough. Evolution of upper trough still main weather maker this week. Today/tonight, -SN ends this morning as drier air pushes into the CWA and synoptic forcing associated with upper trough moves northeast.
That precipitation should end before it gets cold enough for freezing rain to be an issue. Over the rest of the CWA a cold front moving slowly south into central lower Michigan will stall near I-96 this evening. Temperatures should mostly stay above freezing overnight expect for the area north and east of Big Rapids and even there it may just get to 32F for an hour or two.
Should see some increased moisture advection tonight thru Tuesday ahead of upper trough and translated sfc frontal system west of the area, which will be the next main focus.
(The rest of today ) Showers and scattered elevated thunderstorms continue to increase this morning over eastern Oklahoma as strong forcing associated with upper low spreads east.
400 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will continue to extend across the area into Tuesday.
342 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 A deep upper level low pressure system will eject east then northeast out of the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains tonight.
It's looking less likely that TS will develop along the dryline thanks to strong capping, but overnight and especially after midnight ISO-SCT TS can't be ruled out from ALI-CRP with even higher probabilities at VCT ahead of a cold front.
1204 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper trough near the four corners area early this morning will continue to push east today. As the upper low tracks east/northeast tonight, a strong cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma and will move through much of the area overnight. Strong, gusty north winds will develop behind the front with much cooler airmass surging south as well.
Gusty north winds and boating impacts will linger Tuesday along the Colorado River Valley then a strong ridge will build over the western states providing tranquil weather and potentially record breaking temperatures by the weekend.
145 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will shift to the NC coast this evening.
High pressure will build to the northeast through Tuesday. Convergence in weak inverted coastal troughing will yield a few spotty showers Tuesday over the coastal waters, but this activity is not expected to move over land. Clouds will increase from the east due to the coastal troughing, and from the west due to the advancing front.
Any shower activity will diminish Tuesday evening, as ridging builds overhead.
Today and Tomorrow: A cold front is slowly moving to the southeast across the forecast area. The low is expected to move northeast across the central Plains. If observed temperatures are cooler than forecast, then higher snowfall amounts could be realized. Little to no snow could be realized if temperatures remain warmer.
The higher rain amounts are expected along the MO/KS border. However, soundings do show some continued saturation in the low levels for these areas, so some periods of drizzle remain possible. Dew points will reach the low to mid 50s, instability will be around 1000 J/kg, deep layer shear will be around 60-80 kts, and mid level lapse rates will be steep.
Large area of high pressure is building into the region this afternoon. Light winds and warmer, closer to normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday. However, the GFS brings the closed low just barely over the forecast area on Mon and is thus much wetter. The cluster analysis actually makes the operational GFS solution an outlier, as none of the four scenarios broken out by this analysis indicate any trough this far east for Sun night/Mon. Finally temperatures in this period are still much warmer and above normal.
Deepening upper level trough will provide some short-term strong synoptic lift overnight into very early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory seems prudent as the HRRR and RAP indicate that we could be pushing gusts in the High Wind realm. Models are advertising a closed low in the base of the aforementioned trough that could keep at least some light precip over our CWA (especially east), as the trough axis slows down during its trek east.
Partly cloudy skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the lower 80s with dewpoints slipping into the upper 60s, bringing a tad bit of relief to the mugginess that has been felt for several days. After stalling tonight, the frontal boundary appears to take on weak warm frontal characteristics and forecast soundings advertise a developing veering profile tonight and tomorrow. As the high continues into the central Atlantic by mid-week, low pressure building into the southeast with another frontal boundary will take over and winds will clock to the south to southwest, introducing a cuban shadow effect.
333 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will shift offshore by Tuesday.
320 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Synoptically, an upper trough will be positioned north to south from the Northern Plains through the Southern Plains. A closed upper low will lift from the Texas panhandle into central Kansas. An inverted H7 trough will act as a focus for precipitation development.
1000 AM PDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring much warmer weather through the middle of the weak with areas of gusty northeast winds from the mountains west into some of the valleys.
1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 (The rest of today ) Showers and scattered elevated thunderstorms continue to increase this morning over eastern Oklahoma as strong forcing associated with upper low spreads east.
Tuesday, under cloudy skies, scattered rain and possible drizzle, we will be cooler and moist. Expect winds to be southeasterly through the day, as dewpoints climb to the lower to mid 50s.
For tonight and tomorrow, it still appears the bulk of precip associated with the low pressure system will stay east of the CWA.
336 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 (Issued 336 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: The warm front is currently draped southeast across the area, with temperatures up near Sheboygan in the 40s and low to mid 70s across southwest Wisconsin. Tonight this warm front will retreat westward as a pseudo-cold front with easterly winds taking over.
200 PM PDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring much warmer weather through the middle of the week with areas of gusty northeast winds from the mountains west into some of the valleys.
144 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will keep the area dry through tonight. High pressure centered over the southern Appalachians will keep south to southwesterly flow across the region. High pressure starts drifting off the Southeast Coast tonight ahead on an approaching low pressure system and upper level trough. Highly amplified mid level flow with a long wave trof tracking slowly from Plains into the Great Lakes by the end of the week.
Discussion: Tonight, high pressure slides further to our southeast due to an approaching long wave trough from out of the Great Plains. In response, temps will be around 10 degrees warmer compared to last night with lows in the mid to upper 40s. The longwave trough inches closer toward our region through the day tomorrow and the pressure gradient will tighten.
Otherwise benign and dry ridge dominated day on tap with just some cirrus coming in from the west.
225 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure nearby tonight. Dry cold front drops south on Tuesday. Cooler and showery by the weekend. Models bring a weak, almost dry cold front approaching from the north Tuesday morning. West to southwest winds will remain 5-10 knots tonight, continuing gusty across the higher elevations. During the short term period, a low pressure system over the central US strengthens as it slowly moves up into the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, an upper level trough associated with the low gradually deepens as it shifts overhead. Much of Tuesday should remain dry as upper level ridging recedes and low level dry air erodes due to the approaching system.
Winds begin to increase tomorrow afternoon at CHA as an upper level trough approaches the area. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 74 59 72 45 / 0 10 90 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 75 58 74 48 / 0 10 80 80 20 Oak Ridge, TN 48 74 57 73 46 / 0 10 80 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 72 54 73 46 / 0 0 70 90 30.
303 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure over the southeast U. The breezy easterly flow this afternoon will diminish overnight then increase out of the southeast on Tuesday as the high moves away from the area.
317 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure nearby tonight. Dry cold front drops south on Tuesday.
Tonight and Tuesday The main forecast concern will be precipitation type across the north later tonight through Tuesday as temperatures to reside a few degrees below freezing tonight and a few degrees above freezing Tuesday. The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of low pressure situated over southwest MN with a warm front extended southeast through southern WI. A cold front stretched southwest from the low through the central Plains. High pressure was located near Hudson Bay. The greatest threat for precipitation tonight to be over northern WI as the warm front attempts to lift north. As temperatures settle around or slightly below freezing late tonight across the north, potential exists for freezing rain to occur if the atmosphere can remain saturated. Min temperatures to range from the lower 30s far north, middle 30s to around 40 degrees south.
957 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will continue to extend across the area into Tuesday.
722 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure nearby tonight. Dry cold front drops south on Tuesday.
654 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will provide mostly dry and warm weather into Tuesday. Rain chances increase during the midweek period with approaching low pressure. High pressure will slide off of the southeast CONUS coast tonight. This will be in addition to the cloud increase from the west, as upper level moisture spill over the approaching 500mb ridge axis. A few models, particularly the NAM, are more aggressive in pushing deeper moisture into southern portions of the CWA, along with a lobe of vorticity providing lift near the 500mb ridge axis. Otherwise, as a deep trough becomes carved over the central CONUS, increasing southerly flow will continue to push a higher PWAT air mass into the region.
Drier air slowly moves in from the west on the backside of the 500mb trough. The back of the slowly moving upper level trough moves across the region tomorrow. High pressure pushes into the central Rockies enhancing the pressure gradient as low pressure exits the region. Accumulations will be minimal with potentially a few inches in the higher elevations and little to no accumulation over the plains.
559 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a distinct jet streak digging south along the Utah/Colorado border this afternoon behind a high amplitude longwave trough of low pressure. Temperatures have struggled to hit the 50 mark today in the low valleys. Mountain valleys will drop into the low teens tonight, but help is on the way as high pressure builds into the region and temperatures rebound steadily this week. For the time being we are waiting in the queue for low pressure to eject out onto the plains and the Pacific ridge to build eastward. Mountain locations will remain cooler tomorrow thanks to clouds and snow.
1016 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday. High pressure will return thereafter. Late this evening: Conditions are very quiet with high pressure in control and thin cirrus continuing to increase from the west. The center of the high will gradually slip eastward and off the coast through the rest of the night, keeping the forecast area within the area of low-level onshore flow. We've maintained cooler lows as with the previous forecast, with upper 40s away from the coast increasing to low to mid 50s at the coast.
Warmer temperatures are expected this week, with daytime highs over 80 degrees across parts of the interior during mid-week. An upper ridge of high pressure over the E Pacific will shift overhead on Tuesday, with warmer temperatures across the board. As a result, have leaned just slightly warmer than MOS guidance along the coastal plain on Tuesday (50th percentile of the NBM guidance).
949 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 (Issued 945 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022) As the low in southern Minnesota weakens, another low pushes northeast tonight from the central US. Kuroski (Issued 336 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: The warm front is currently draped southeast across the area, with temperatures up near Sheboygan in the 40s and low to mid 70s across southwest Wisconsin. Tonight this warm front will retreat westward as a pseudo-cold front with easterly winds taking over.
A deep upper level low pressure system will eject east then northeast out of the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains tonight.
315 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Looking at latest GOES 16/17 satellite imagery, a deepening upper level low continues to track across southern NM with an associated cloud shield extending up along the Front Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Gusty north to northwesterly winds continue along and east of the Laramie Range through late this afternoon with a decent pressure gradient as cyclogenesis continues over the southern plains and high pressure builds in behind. More northerly flow at 500mb will move into the area Tuesday as the upper level trough continues to slowly progress across the southern CONUS.
531 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Looking at latest GOES 16/17 satellite imagery, a deepening upper level low continues to track across southern NM with an associated cloud shield extending up along the Front Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Gusty north to northwesterly winds continue along and east of the Laramie Range through late this afternoon with a decent pressure gradient as cyclogenesis continues over the southern plains and high pressure builds in behind. More northerly flow at 500mb will move into the area Tuesday as the upper level trough continues to slowly progress across the southern CONUS.
543 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A mid-level trough will continue to stay over the Southern Plains through tomorrow, allowing for additional lift across the area. A cold front will begin to push through the area late this evening, and gusty northerly winds will follow in its wake.
Look for these winds to die down in the overnight thanks to the ridge and high pressure continuing to build over the Great Basin Region. For the overnight this pocket of moisture could prove to aid in some fog formation in the lower valleys of the Northern Nevada. Instead, what seem more likely is the mountains of Elko county providing just enough orographic lift to support a light dusting of snow in the high mountains Tuesday. Outside of these outliers, look for weather to remain dry with high temperatures in the in 50s to 60s Tuesday afternoon and overnights in the high 20s to 30s.
725 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will shift to the NC coast this evening.
After a near average day today, temperatures will take successive steps warmer through midweek.
416 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The main story in the near term will be a transition from warm and dry to considerably wetter and cooler conditions, though highs in the 50s tomorrow will still be a bit above normals heading into the final third of March. This low will also increase chances of showers early Tuesday morning, with best chances expected after 10Z.
Bowlan (Tomorrow through Monday) The cold front moves eastward through the region during the day Tuesday. while the upper level trof axis remains in place across the region.
Morning lows should be mainly in the mid 50s to near 60 with highs tomorrow in the low 60s to mid 70s. By Tuesday evening, a dry air will wrap into the Midsouth, as the upper low lifts into the mid-MS River valley.
Expect another 2" or so of new snow across eastern Colorado before the upper low center rounds the base of the upper trough and starts lifting out across the Texas panhandle into central Kansas from this evening through the overnight hours. These snowfall amounts in coordination with neighboring office may be on the high side, so overall confidence is not as high as it should be to go ahead and issue a Warning over that area.