Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low pressure area off the Pacific Northwest flow will slowly move onshore through Wednesday, allowing the southwest flow aloft to tap into moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Paine. The upper low will then move east into the Great Basin Wednesday night into Thursday, which will put a continued moist southerly flow aloft over the area. The lower and mid level flow will also shift to a more easterly upslope direction, which will enhance the more widespread rain and mountain snow.
1134 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
1258 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather across the area tonight. A weak cold front will move south across the area on Friday, possibly causing a few showers north of US 30. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s over southern Michigan to the mid 80s over central portions of Indiana and Ohio. Mainly quiet weather will prevail through the first part of the short term period, with the CWA on the fringes of an expansive upper level ridge. Friday afternoon a cold front will drop southward from Michigan into the area.
/issued 411 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ One more seasonably warm to hot day is expected tomorrow as the 591 dam mid-level ridge shifts eastward in response to an approaching high-amplitude trough.
Upper level low is currently located over central Nevada and showers are ongoing this evening across mainly the Idaho zones. These showers are producing a couple hundreths of an inch of rain, and as the mid- level trough axis is now east of the area, the showers are now moving in more of a north to south trajectory.
711 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2016 Winds are decreasing a bit this evening as the upper low that brought the much colder air and showers to the region starts to move east. Showers are decreasing rapidly as the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere become more stable.
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue in the short term as upper level ridging holds over much of the Midwest and a nearly stationary front remains from eastern Nebraska across central Iowa into southern WI. The upper level ridge is expected to strengthen a bit over us on Friday which will keep the synoptic front to our north.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 88 60 87 / 10 0 0 0.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer compared to last night at this time. The forecast is on track and merely fine-tuned some of the low temperatures and diurnal drop off over the next few hours. Models remain consistent with the idea of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure maintaining dry weather with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
1051 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Upper ridge has shifted slightly eastward this afternoon as the upper low continues to deepen over the Four Corners area, generating fast southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface a large area of high pressure is centered over Manitoba with low pressure over Utah, Colorado and southwestern Wyoming. Tonight into Friday the upper low will eject quickly northward moving into western Wyoming on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will likely remain relatively cool over much of the area on Friday however much warmer temperatures are possible if the dry slot develops over parts of southwestern and especially south central SD.
1155 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong trough digging into the western CONUS, with downstream ridging in place across the southern and central US. Overnight lows will be similar to the last couple of nights with temps dipping in the low/mid 60s.
1016 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Late evening surface analysis depicts persistent weak low pressure (1012 millibars) located near the South Carolina coast, with a weak stationary front extending from this feature across north central Florida. High pressure (1020 millibars) was centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. An upper level low is pivoting southward across southwestern Georgia. Slow moving showers are persisting over the Ocala National Forest and near Flagler Beach due to the proximity to the frontal boundary, deeper moisture and some positive vorticity advection rotating northeastward associated with the aforementioned upper low just northwest of our region. Weak low pressure will meander near the Carolina coast through Friday night, and will then move northeastward and weaken.
Similar conditions are anticipated on Friday, with highs in the low/mid 90s and near zero rain chances. An upper level ridge will continue to build north into the upper Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days.
/issued 219 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Mostly clear skies and lgt easterly winds continue under influence of prolonged ridging across the area, with the exception of a few cumulus clods forming across mainly east TX lakes portions of the area. Despite unseasonally hot temps in the lower to mid 90s, humidities have fortunately remained on the low side past few days.
651 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue in the short term as upper level ridging holds over much of the Midwest and a nearly stationary front remains from eastern Nebraska across central Iowa into southern WI. The upper level ridge is expected to strengthen a bit over us on Friday which will keep the synoptic front to our north.
635 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Warm front this afternoon has made it down to about I-80 in Iowa. We will finally get the upper trough to our west out of here by the end of the weekend, but until then we'll have a few more periods of precipitation with which to contend. It appears most activity will be to our north Friday night with the warm front and better isentropic lift located there, although some low PoPs for part of the area are still warranted.
1136 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Tonight through Friday: An upper low over the western states will push slowly east into the Rockies. This will allow a frontal boundary stretching from southeastern Nebraska to far northwestern Kansas, to lift northward as a warm front overnight into Friday.
742 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep the weather warm and dry into the weekend.
Another quiet night across the TN valley, thanks to an upper ridge over the region. (Issued 601 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016) For 00Z TAFs: Upper ridge across the area will keep vfr conditions at both KMSL and KHSV thru the fcst period.
952 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
Stratus cloud cover that lingered over the northeast plains held temperatures cooler through this afternoon. southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado will be increasing ahead of the deep upper low moving into the Great Basin. On the plains, increasing winds will bring warmer and drier condtions. Deep upper level low for this time of year will shift northeast across Wyoming Friday night. Through midnight, there is potential for a mean state critical layer with almost pure southerly flow aloft ahead of the trough axis.
614 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Upper level ridging building into the Central US will maintain quiet conditions tonight and tomorrow while temperatures remain well above average. Despite the ridge building in overhead, a subtle backing of the low-level flow will result in temperatures on Friday that are a degree or two cooler than today.
523 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Upper ridge has shifted slightly eastward this afternoon as the upper low continues to deepen over the Four Corners area, generating fast southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface a large area of high pressure is centered over Manitoba with low pressure over Utah, Colorado and southwestern Wyoming. Tonight into Friday the upper low will eject quickly northward moving into western Wyoming on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will likely remain relatively cool over much of the area on Friday however much warmer temperatures are possible if the dry slot develops over parts of southwestern and especially south central SD.
1226 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After another warm day today, a weak cold front tonight will give cooler temperatures for the weekend.
1009 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
623 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong trough digging into the western CONUS, with downstream ridging in place across the southern and central US. Overnight lows will be similar to the last couple of nights with temps dipping in the low/mid 60s.
949 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Weak low pressure will continue to meander south of the area through Friday before dissipating. Weak high pressure will build in from the north late week.
828 PM PDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will gradually build over the region through the weekend resulting in a warming trend.
917 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Low pressure remains off the Carolina coast while high pressure is centered over New England.
855 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Low pressure over the Carolinas will weaken and move slowly east and eventually offshore by Friday night.
1045 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Warm front this afternoon has made it down to about I-80 in Iowa. We will finally get the upper trough to our west out of here by the end of the weekend, but until then we'll have a few more periods of precipitation with which to contend. It appears most activity will be to our north Friday night with the warm front and better isentropic lift located there, although some low PoPs for part of the area are still warranted.
Other more isolated thunderstorms may develop along a retreating warm front roughly along Interstate 70. General clearing will continue this afternoon along the western fringes of an area of retreating high pressure. A large upper low will approach the CWA overnight and into Friday. For Friday, we will see temperatures soar once more into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with a sharp drop toward the afternoon as much cooler air is advected into the region.
941 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
/issued 340 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ High pressure across much of the eastern half of the country at the surface this afternoon. Weak upper low remains over the Carolinas with upper ridging centered just west of the Mississippi River. Where winds, light as they may be, are not off of the water, temperatures are in the lower 90s. Ridging remains across much of the middle of the country through the weekend.
1223 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 Weak low pressure will continue to meander south of the area through Friday before dissipating. Weak high pressure will build in from the north late week.
This would also permit minimum temperatures to drop below values currently prognosed for the same areas, which by the way are anticipated to be in the low 70s most locations.
726 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
VFR conditions continue for all terminals as the state continues to be underneath an upper level ridge with a mid/low level high pressure centered just to the east.
618 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Tonight through Friday: An upper low over the western states will push slowly east into the Rockies. This will allow a frontal boundary stretching from southeastern Nebraska to far northwestern Kansas, to lift northward as a warm front overnight into Friday.
(Issued 808 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016) Another quiet night across the TN valley, thanks to an upper ridge over the region. For 06Z TAFs: With a strong area of high pressure layered across the Mid Atlantic states into the SE region, VFR conds are xpcted through the forecast period.
A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue ahead of a cold front that will move west to east through the region overnight. Cooler conditions will develop on Friday, with continued dry and slightly warmer daytime temperatures over the weekend. A line of showers and thunderstorms is just entering western Coconino County in association with a cold front and cold low pressure system approaching. Given the frontal forcing for ascent and ample wind shear in place ahead of the approaching trough. An upper low is located over Nevada and will move into Utah overnight, pushing a cold front from west to east across our region overnight. Drier and cooler conditions are expected Friday behind the front.
Proton 6PM Update: The upper trough is moving out this evening and taking the last bit of showers with it, after 9pm expect fair skies for the area. An upper ridge builds in for a fair weather period. Proton Previous Discussion: With an upper trough over the Northern Plains and an upper ridge over the Pacific NW, northeast Montana lies in NW flow.
/issued 334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/ Following a sunny and mild day today, a little more active weather will arrive to the Midsouth on Wednesday, courtesy of an upper level low lifting from the southern high plains into MO. The surface reflection of this low will deepen to 998 mb as it passes near St. The overall upper trof will maintain a neutral to positive orientation until a vorticity lobe ejects across the Midsouth Wednesday afternoon. A few elevated storms will possible north of I-40, nearer to the upper low and where midlevel lapse rates exceed 6 C/KM.
/EC/ 00Z TAF discussion: Warm advection regime ahead of a cold front will bring widespread MVFR/IFR category ceilings in the 06-18 UTC time frame. Expect VFR conditions to return Wednesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday night behind a cold front.
A large mid level cyclone over Kansas will continue to lift northeast as a mesoscale convective vortex over Oklahoma moves east tonight and enhances lift across ongoing convection over Arkansas. /issued 334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/ Following a sunny and mild day today, a little more active weather will arrive to the Midsouth on Wednesday, courtesy of an upper level low lifting from the southern high plains into MO. The surface reflection of this low will deepen to 998 mb as it passes near St. The overall upper trof will maintain a neutral to positive orientation until a vorticity lobe ejects across the Midsouth Wednesday afternoon. A few elevated storms will possible north of I-40, nearer to the upper low and where midlevel lapse rates exceed 6 C/KM.
The pressure gradient has eased some, but on Wed the gradient will start to tighten as a cold front approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/ Upper low continues to churn its way ewd across the srn plains this afternoon, and a lack of cloud cover downstream per visible satellite confirms the lack of moisture that our 12Z and 18Z soundings show. Nevertheless, models indicate that at least some recovery will accompany the trof as it moves into central OK later this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms and the threat for severe weather will come to an end prior to sunrise, but a few shwrs may remain possible as moisture wraps around the back side of the low. Sharpening pressure gradient will accompany the low and will make for some very gusty winds Wed. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the low late Wed as it finally pushes ewd and leaves us under nw flow aloft.
1015 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Upper level ridge axis continues to gradually shift east across the Northern Rockies tonight for dry conditions with a gradual increase in high level cloud-cover from the west and relatively light winds of 5 to 15 mph in most areas. VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon as an upper level ridge moves into the region. Martin /ISSUED 542 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017/ Upper ridging approaches from the west tonight with clear skies, thus allowing for optimal radiational cooling especially over sheltered valleys of Southwest Montana. As stout upper-level ridging moves directly over the area from the west Wednesday temperatures will warm about 10 degrees from today's highs over our region.
908 PM PDT Tue Apr 4 2017 High pressure aloft will bring another sunny and warm day Wednesday.
A strong cold front will move across the terminals this evening, with FROPA across the northern terminals between 01Z and 02Z and across the far southern terminals by 03Z. Northwest winds will be gusty behind the frontal boundary much of the night, and will usher in cooler air. It will be cooler areawide Wednesday, particularly due to gusty northwesterly winds under cyclonic flow aloft on the backside of the departing upper trough.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Warm advection regime ahead of a cold front will bring widespread MVFR/IFR category ceilings in the 06-18 UTC time frame. Expect VFR conditions to return Wednesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday night behind a cold front. A warm front will push across the region overnight ahead of an approaching front. As far as temps are concern with warm advection in place lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. Highs for Wednesday will be cool with readings from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. A drier, cooler airmass will begin to filter into the region Wednesday night behind the cold front.
1039 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Robust upper trough ejecting northeast from the Southern Plains has allowed for sustained convection as far south as the middle Red River Valley to just north of the I-30 corridor. Otherwise, the remainder of the region is rather quiet but that will be changing with the arrival of a strong cold front overnight through early Wednesday.
1212 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected through much of Wednesday before the next low pressure system approaches.
Winds will become south to southwest later tonight, then west to northwest behind the cold front.
In closed proximity to the closed low in south-central Kansas, widespread rain is ongoing and extends into far northern Oklahoma and is also shifting east. To the west of the upper low within an area of northwesterly weakly convergent flow and residual low level moisture, stratus is prevalent across the Panhandles and this will shift eastward across our area through the night. Scattered showers have increased across portions of the fa over the last few hours as lift associated with the upper low has spread into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of the area into tonight but gradually end overnight into early Wednesday as the upper low moves away from the fa.
6PM Update: The upper trough is moving out this evening and taking the last bit of showers with it, after 9pm expect fair skies for the area. An upper ridge builds in for a fair weather period. Proton Previous Discussion: With an upper trough over the Northern Plains and an upper ridge over the Pacific NW, northeast Montana lies in NW flow.
858 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected through much of Wednesday before the next low pressure system approaches.
Pacific cold front with drier air was moving into the northern Hill Country with the stronger cold front lagging behind just south of Interstate 20. Strong cold front will enter the coastal waters just before 12Z Wednesday. Expect the lower clouds/MVFR ceilings will reach VCT by 02Z. Dry Pacific cold front from FTW southwest to the Hill Country at 23Z will move into ALI/VCT area by 09Z with brief period of MVFR ceilings post-frontal.
1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017 /06Z TAFS/ Gusty northwest winds prevail across the terminals late this evening, behind a surface cold front that is now south of the area. A strong cold front will move across the terminals this evening, with FROPA across the northern terminals between 01Z and 02Z and across the far southern terminals by 03Z. Northwest winds will be gusty behind the frontal boundary much of the night, and will usher in cooler air. It will be cooler areawide Wednesday, particularly due to gusty northwesterly winds under cyclonic flow aloft on the backside of the departing upper trough.
919 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 High pressure builds over the area into Wednesday.
Thus the threat of mixed precipitation or freezing rain is even less. We did drop temperatures a little so if we do see some sprinkles holding on into the overnight hours, we could still see a few freezing sprinkles. An upper level low will shift east into central ND this evening, before digging into the southern James River Valley this later tonight. In doing so, a surface cold front will shift from north to south through 00z Wednesday. Expecting the highest pops closest to the mid level low circulation across central and southern North Dakota.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 77 47 55 / 10 60 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 75 47 51 / 10 60 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 55 77 46 52 / 10 60 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 74 46 49 / 0 60 70 70.
But, this change in the weather pattern will continue to progress slowly for the next 24 to 36 hours as a cold front currently offshore moves toward the southern Oregon coast.
An upper level low will shift east into central ND this evening, before digging into the southern James River Valley this later tonight. In doing so, a surface cold front will shift from north to south through 00z Wednesday. Expecting the highest pops closest to the mid level low circulation across central and southern North Dakota.
High pressure to our east and its western ridge will extend across the Florida Keys and western Gulf of Mexico overnight and tomorrow Wednesday.
501 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof across the central CONUS, with ridge building across the western US. At the surface, low pressure resides in the southern Plains, with high pressure over the northern Rockies. Upper level trof will continue to shift east this afternoon and evening. Showers will dissipate early this evening as the trough shifts eastward, leaving partly cloudy skies after midnight. Upper ridge will start to build into the area Wednesday night.
541 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Nearly clear skies tonight will allow for a significant cool off with overnight low temps dropping well below freezing in the valleys. Scattered snow showers will continue over the higher mountains of the Continental Divide through this evening, then dissipate overnight. A small vort max dropping down the west side of the trough within the cold advection and instability behind the trough, over NE Utah and NW CO, will produce isolated showers there until about sunset. ridging will take over bringing about a significant warming trend. night will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today and tonight.
542 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Aviation Section Updated Upper ridging approaches from the west tonight with clear skies, thus allowing for optimal radiational cooling especially over sheltered valleys of Southwest Montana. As stout upper-level ridging moves directly over the area from the west Wednesday temperatures will warm about 10 degrees from today's highs over our region.
1045 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Aviation Section Updated Upper level ridge axis continues to gradually shift east across the Northern Rockies tonight for dry conditions with a gradual increase in high level cloud-cover from the west and relatively light winds of 5 to 15 mph in most areas. VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday evening as an upper level ridge moves over the region. Martin /ISSUED 542 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017/ Upper ridging approaches from the west tonight with clear skies, thus allowing for optimal radiational cooling especially over sheltered valleys of Southwest Montana. As stout upper-level ridging moves directly over the area from the west Wednesday temperatures will warm about 10 degrees from today's highs over our region.