Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Cold front that pushed through KS late last night is currently situated down along the Red River with a slightly cooler and drier airmass spilling into the region. Pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least mid week before upper ridging starts to strengthen over the southern Plains which will push the stronger westerlies north. Should also see a return to more seasonal temps by the end of the work week as we get highs back to the low 90s. High pressure should keep most of the convection out of the area Saturday, with mid-level clouds about the only thing to be remotely concerned about.
9AM UPDATE: Upper trough has pushed showers/thunderstorms east against the North Dakota border at 9 pm. TFJ PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSION: Isolated to widely scattered showers continue to cross portions of the CWA this afternoon in response to an advancing upper level trough. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for the SE zones and radar echoes indicate convection initiation upstream of the forecast area in adjacent southern Canada as well as the higher terrain of central Montana. Any activity is expected to clear late tonight with drier weather conditions on Saturday in advance of an approaching upper level ridge.
1015 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Mid level trough axis continues to rotate across the region, providing just enough forcing and remnant moisture to continue to generate a few light showers. with the associated cold front moving thru our SE CWA attm. Temps have only warmed a few degrees behind the cold front today. but have reached to almost 80 degrees around APN and OSC just ahead of the cold front. High temps on Saturday will warm mainly into the lower 70s. High Pressure for a Couple of Days.
A weak upper level trough was moving through southwest Washington and northwest Oregon this evening and overnight, resulting in a marine push tonight and Saturday morning and a few showers or thunderstorms near the Cascade crest. The threat of thunderstorms will move off to the east of our forecast area Saturday while the marine clouds will be slow to break up, causing temperatures to be cooler.
/issued 401 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Weak and broad area of low pressure continues meander off the coast of NE Florida this afternoon, with a trailing trough stretching back across the peninsula. THIS WEEKEND: The weak area of low pressure will be absorbed into the larger frontal trough across the southeast on Saturday as high pressure rebuilds back across FL in its wake.
Added in some patchy fog for Minnesota lakes area late tonight as conditions will be favorable with high pressure centered overhead.
758 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A few more hours of thunderstorm potential will be mostly east of the terminal corridor during the evening as the cold front finishes moving through SE Michigan. That will leave only scattered showers immediately post front and wrapping around the low pressure system as it moves into Ontario overnight. Cold front extends from about Bad Axe southwest to Benton Harbor. Freezing levels only 12k ft with strongest updrafts supporting up to 35k ft tops so far. Broad 500mb trough will linger over the Great Lakes Saturday aiding in a fair amount of cu development.
1030 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A series of cool low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada will converge with warmer moist southwest flow on the west side of a flat high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, over Wyoming.
/issued 300 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ The morning MCS has left behind somewhat cooler conditions, with insufficient instability (or focusing mechanisms) to generate any thunderstorms so far this afternoon.
721 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A slow moving cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening.
Winds through the lower half (sfc- 500mb) have increased and shifted to a more northwesterly direction in response to an weak broad upper trough passed across the Mississippi Valley. Upper high was located over Texas with the associated ridge axis southeast to upper Texas coast over northwest Gulf. Upper level high will remain west and warming in the mid layers will remain west as well.
Will allow for more of a lull into the overnight, before the surface cold front draws closer from the northwest, allowing for at least a small threat of showers towards dawn. The front will move into eastern Kentucky Saturday morning, bringing drier and cooler air into the Bluegrass by noon. Showers and storms will continue farther southeast, with numerous storms possible in portions of the higher terrain where local upslope flow will be enhanced. Drier air will filter through the Commonwealth behind the front Saturday evening/night as high pressure filters in. Fog development will again be a good bet as temperatures cool well below afternoon dewpoints with ridges bottoming out in the upper 50s to low 60s and valleys dipping into the mid-upper 50s.
952 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A slow moving cold front will push southeast through the commonwealth late Saturday bringing another round or two of showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Upper ridge remains stationary over the northern Rockies from northern Idaho to northern Utah into southwestern Colorado this afternoon. Water vapor imagery showing a small disturbance moving through the ridge into south central Wyoming this afternoon thats interacting with low level moisture and the tail end of a stationary front on surface analysis. A stronger low pressure system can be seen on water vapor imagery over north central Montana that will have some impacts on us tomorrow. By late Saturday afternoon, upper low near Rapid City with a cold front moving south into Converse and Niobrara Counties.
912 PM PDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A weak upper level trough will remain north of the region through Saturday.
705 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Plenty of remaining moisture overhead with a cold front moving through the area tomorrow.
Diurnally driven convection is diminishing but the high moisture and a few lingering boundaries may continue to generate isolated-scattered showers across the north.
531 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Upper trough continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. while ridging remains over the west coast.
735 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest this weekend leading to seasonable temperatures and mainly sunny skies.
714 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Northwest flow aloft will be present across western Nebraska tonight as an upper trough in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba drops into Montana and North Dakota. Weak upper ridging will exist across the Great Basin. On Saturday, a fairly strong upper trough located across Montana eastward through North Dakota, will drop southeast and bring good chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
with the associated cold front moving thru our SE CWA attm. Temps have only warmed a few degrees behind the cold front today. but have reached to almost 80 degrees around APN and OSC just ahead of the cold front. High temps on Saturday will warm mainly into the lower 70s. High Pressure for a Couple of Days.
The sky should clear out across the area tonight with morning lows from the low to mid 60s. The drier air mass will linger across the area on Saturday with highs again in the low to mid 80s. We will begin to change the upper pattern slightly with some ridging over the area by midweek and then some southwest flow ahead of a trough for the latter part of the week. This will help to bring warmer temperatures back to the area for the middle to later half of next work week along with higher instability. KSGF/KJLN?KBBG tafs: High pressure will become centered over the Midwest during this period.
1034 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a broad ridge lies just north of our county warning area, resulting in mostly east winds of around 5 knots except near 10 knots on the Straits of Florida. In wake of the trough along the Florida east coast lifting northward, slightly drier air combined with a light and chaotic flow prompted pops to be trimmed to isolated. With the western Atlantic ridge lying across extreme south Florida, mostly east winds of 10 knots or less can be expected on our coastal waters.
935 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A crossing cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Saturday.
612 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A low pressure center is making its way through the Great Lakes this afternoon, and the associated cold front has slipped south of Interstate 70 and out of ILXs forecast area. Overnight will be cooler as clear skies and light winds in general set up for some radiational cooling more so than a major difference in airmasses behind the front.
/issued 215 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ Upper ridge centered over TX and stretching up across the Intermountain West today will get flattened out and displaced east as an upper trough moves ashore the West Coast. As the trough passes by the ridge will once again return west. Disturbances rolling around the edge of the ridge will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region. For now highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with higher temps along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.
608 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Cold front that pushed through KS late last night is currently situated down along the Red River with a slightly cooler and drier airmass spilling into the region. Pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least mid week before upper ridging starts to strengthen over the southern Plains which will push the stronger westerlies north. Should also see a return to more seasonal temps by the end of the work week as we get highs back to the low 90s. High pressure ridging into the area will continue this evening.
1101 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms found along it this evening.
739 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A crossing cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Saturday.
Upper level high pressure will predominate across the region through the weekend and into the upcoming week. The upper level ridge will remain across the south central CONUS throughout the period, though SE Texas will generally stay more under the eastern periphery through the majority of the period.
Have continued the SCT010 grouping for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF sites given the low probability of MVFR ceilings. Some very patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings could occur west across the higher terrain of the Escarpment region but actual TAF sites should remain VFR. The mid and upper level ridge will continue to stretch from west to east across the southern U.
1023 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Upper trough continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. while ridging remains over the west coast.
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure ridge, just west of the MN/Dakotas border, will slowly move east tonight and extend across MN by Saturday morning.
Isolated showers having a difficult time developing this afternoon especially with the warmer and drier layer that moved in around H85 per the 12Z KCRP sounding. However, moisture will remain in the boundary layer to continue to allow for temperatures in the afternoon to feel warmer than actual.
With upper level ridging overhead, the chance for precip for tomorrow afternoon will be dependent upon the seabreeze and daytime heating. Upper level high pressure will predominate across the region through the weekend and into the upcoming week. The upper level ridge will remain across the south central CONUS throughout the period, though SE Texas will generally stay more under the eastern periphery through the majority of the period.
616 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 With high pressure dominating the area over the next couple of days, quieter, cooler and drier weather is expected.
952 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Added in some patchy fog for Minnesota lakes area late tonight as conditions will be favorable with high pressure centered overhead.
With temps in the lower 90s, heat index values of 104-107 with a few spots reaching 108 or higher briefly this afternoon over SE TX.
1150 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 142 PM CDT Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper trough advancing eastward across the Great Lakes this afternoon. This is ushering cooler mid level air into the area as the low level flow turns more northerly. High pressure over the northern plains will move southeast into Saturday before moving overhead later Saturday.
This low then slowly meanders east into the southern James River Valley Saturday night. Models in agreement with the mid level closed low forming near Emmons County Saturday afternoon, but rainfall amounts per models vary significantly. WPC Gridded values show the highest total amounts in McIntosh and Dickey Counties between 1.
639 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A cold front was located near the Louisiana border and providing a focus for thunderstorms.
A slow moving cold front will push southeast through the commonwealth late Saturday bringing another round or two of showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 85 71 87 / 50 50 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 82 67 86 / 50 60 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 85 67 86 / 50 50 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 80 63 83 / 50 60 20 20.
Also raised the low temperatures a bit, given the lingering cloud cover through the night. Will allow for more of a lull into the overnight, before the surface cold front draws closer from the northwest, allowing for at least a small threat of showers towards dawn. The front will move into eastern Kentucky Saturday morning, bringing drier and cooler air into the Bluegrass by noon. Showers and storms will continue farther southeast, with numerous storms possible in portions of the higher terrain where local upslope flow will be enhanced. Drier air will filter through the Commonwealth behind the front Saturday evening/night as high pressure filters in. Fog development will again be a good bet as temperatures cool well below afternoon dewpoints with ridges bottoming out in the upper 50s to low 60s and valleys dipping into the mid-upper 50s.
1054 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure ridge, just west of the MN/Dakotas border, will slowly move east tonight and extend across MN by Saturday morning.
820 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Weak trough is in place across the state this evening, and will continue to lift north overnight. Weak ridging will build into the area for the weekend.
812 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A crossing cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Saturday.
A widespread area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the mountains of New Mexico ahead of an upper level short wave trough.
The sky should clear out across the area tonight with morning lows from the low to mid 60s. The drier air mass will linger across the area on Saturday with highs again in the low to mid 80s. We will begin to change the upper pattern slightly with some ridging over the area by midweek and then some southwest flow ahead of a trough for the latter part of the week. This will help to bring warmer temperatures back to the area for the middle to later half of next work week along with higher instability. With drier air moving in as high pressure moves into the Midwest, will keep tafs VFR.
1132 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Mid level trough axis continues to rotate across the region, providing just enough forcing and remnant moisture to continue to generate a few light showers. with the associated cold front moving thru our SE CWA attm. Temps have only warmed a few degrees behind the cold front today. but have reached to almost 80 degrees around APN and OSC just ahead of the cold front. High temps on Saturday will warm mainly into the lower 70s. High Pressure for a Couple of Days.
Upper level trough is approaching the Pacific Northwest this evening. Steering flow aloft remains light, so thunderstorms are not expected to move very far off the higher terrain and will be driven by outflow winds if they do. Saturday weather will be similar to today as upper level trough slowly approaches the region.
1214 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A crossing cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through today.
721 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms found along it this evening.
A reinforced shot of cooler air moves into the state in the form of a surface cold front, which is forecast to enter northwestern ND by/before daybreak and sweep southeast across the state today. This front will be associated with a stacked surface and upper level low moving southeast out of northern Saskatchewan, moving into central Manitoba by this evening. A mild pacific airmass moves in from the west tonight with upper level ridging building in and a mild high pressure system moving in bringing lighter winds and lows in the low to mid 50s. Upper level ridging continues through Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s across western and central North Dakota.
1012 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure moves slowly east.
1227 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure will extend across the region this weekend.
Large High pressure across the region today will lead to another sunny day with summer-like temperatures. The high will drift east of Indiana tonight. A weak cold front is then expected to pass across the area on late Sunday night.
A trough of low pressure extends from northern Minnesota and into southeast South Dakota and northwest Nebraska. Dew points across much of central Iowa this morning are in the low to mid 60s. A bit cooler tonight, especially north as the drier dew points arrive.
1025 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A small area of high pressure will build across NY and PA this afternoon and evening with fair weather.
A low developing over Texas, and associated moisture, will shift a little farther east Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.
fransen High pressure is sliding across Montana and into the northern plains this morning. Winds will be light today before going around to the southeast tonight with the high pressure moving into the Dakotas. Dry conditions continue with upper ridge building over the northern Rockies. Temperatures will also be trending upwards through the weekend as the ridge pushes east over the state. By Sunday evening, the upper-level ridge axis will have moved eastward over the Dakotas and SW flow aloft returns to Montana ahead of the next low pressure system.
Upper level low pressure over the central plains will gradually move southward through Sunday.
More thunderstorms expected this evening/tonight as a weak cold front drops in from the northwest. More thunderstorms expected this evening/tonight as a weak cold front drops in from the northwest. It will be warm with dew points rising to the lower 60s. A cold front will move into southern Wisconsin tonight. Medium A warm thermal ridge will continue to extend into srn WI ahead of a cold front dropping in later in the day or more likely Sunday evening.
1038 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Boundary layer moisture is on the increase across central Illinois this morning, as evidenced by 15z/10am surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. Early morning surface map shows weak 1018-1020 mb high pressure over WV and eastern KY and ridging back into central and eastern IL. This to drive a cold front se into northern CWA late Sunday afternoon and over rest of CWA during Sunday night. Increasing sw winds bring more moisture into central IL sunday and supports better chance of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of cold front Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
In the middle to upper levels (700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with streamline analysis as of 900 am depicts another developing middle and upper level cold core cyclone over West Texas/Eastern New Mexico. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 900 am details weak and broad 1016-1018 surface ridging encompassing the Western Atlantic Ocean from east of North Florida westward to across Alabama. At the surface, the local pressure gradient will relax with only weak 1015 mb ridging over Central Florida this afternoon, and a trough over the Eastern Gulf.
Latest satellite and analysis indicates an upper trough/weak low over the Panhandle and western Oklahoma, extending back to the southwest into northern Mexico. Short-range models keep this trough moving very slowly eastward across north Texas and Oklahoma through today and tonight.
1007 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure will remain in place through tonight.
This area of high pressure will extend from eastern CO through western NE Sunday, and keep a ridge in place over all but our far northeastern counties. Went on the high end of guidance for highs today, which may not be high enough again. Added some influence of the lower mixed dewpoints for Sunday afternoon. With temperatures again rising into the low 90s and dry air fully entrenched over the area, RH values will gain fall to around 15 to 20 percent.
The eastern influence of an upper low over Oklahoma should be the catalyst for more scattered showers and thunderstorms over east central Kansas into west central Missouri during the afternoon. Cooler and drier air will advect into the area upon the frontal passage.
For today, a warm ridge in place across the southwest United States will bring dry weather and near to above normal daytime temperatures. High pressure remains in place across northern Arizona through next work week. Expect light afternoon breezes each day, with stronger winds possible late next work week as a trough approaches from the northwest.
Then, during the overnight hours on Sunday night, widespread storms are expected as the southward moving trough rotating around a now expanding cutoff low over the Great Lakes sends a cold front southward and compresses the flow over the TN Valley.
/ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/ A weak trough of low pressure was located over Central Texas with a weak coastal trough over the western Gulf. Convective temperatures are in the lower/middle 80s so convection should begin to develop as temps warm into the 80s.
1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Quiet and warm weather can be expected today with high pressure.
814 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Quiet and warm weather can be expected today with high pressure.
To the west, a cold front draped across the Great Plains will move into the area today. This cold front will be the primary weather driver through the short term period. The other would be convergence along the cold front later in the evening and into tomorrow. Sunday will see a cold fropa during the day, with little convergence found in the transition to cooler air.
Overnight/early morning convection to the west has been decreasing in coverage, however with a trough aloft across the Central Plains and a surface front stalling out across our region, just cannot rule out the potential for a hit or miss storm pretty much anywhere given the boundary and trough positions.
Highs Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler with more clouds and rainfall coverage, especially for the western half of the state.
Temperatures continue to trend warmer this weekend, climbing into the 80s and lower 90s on Sunday afternoon. Warmer temperatures will help spawn widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, some of which could produce heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.
The upper low will be over north central Texas Sunday night with the trough axis extending to the southwest through the Hill Country.
Upper ridge building over the region will bring us a very warm and mostly dry weekend. Trof off the Pacific coast will kick inland on Sunday and lift thru the northern Rockies Sunday night. Pacific cold front will reach our western areas by late Sunday night.
730 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A weak cold front will move across the area today. High pressure returns tonight into Sunday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes.