Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At 500 MB, a broad, deep trough is in place across the eastern half of the CONUS with ridging building across the western CONUS. By 00 UTC Monday, high pressure will be directly overhead at the surface and aloft with light winds. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 50s but still 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early October. Current forecast is on the high end of guidance. This translates to warmer temps with drier air. High pressure will be centered across the area this afternoon and then slide to our southeast by Monday morning.
By sunrise tomorrow morning, the center of the high should be near southern IL. Cold front continues its eastward progress, now bisecting central Kentucky. Some of the traditional cooler spots in southern Indiana could dip into the mid/upper 30s so we will mention patchy light frost, but wouldn't expect enough coverage for a headline. Starting on Monday night, mostly zonal flow sits over the eastern half of the United States, including the Lower Ohio River Valley.
Cooling will expand inland through midweek as high pressure aloft weakens and shifts east.
/issued 144 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ Surface ridging shifting to the east of the forecast area this afternoon resulting in surface winds veering to the east and southeast. Further veering will occur tonight as the ridge shifts further to the east and as a lee trough develops across eastern New Mexico. Modest southerly component will result in slightly warmer lows tonight compared to this morning for most areas.
310 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Gusty wind today has removed haze over much of the Pacific Northwest today as a dry cold front moves through. A change is expected over the upcoming weekend bringing wetter, cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions. Today through Sunday: After the dry cold front moving thru the area bringing improved ventilation via gusty southwest winds along with some remote spotty sprinkles clears the area this evening the ridge influencing the area will rebound and amplify some.
Benign weather will continue tonight in the wake of a dry cold front. Dry conditions will persist through the beginning of the work week in the wake of a cold front, as Monday looks to be another beautiful day with high temperatures topping out in the low 70s. Will begin a gradual warming trend as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to slide over the Central Plains and heights increase over the area. Veering flow starts to increase overnight, with lows nudging back up near 50 degrees, a little warmer than we have seen the past several nights.
443 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Gusty wind today has removed haze over much of the Pacific Northwest today as a dry cold front moves through. A change is expected over the upcoming weekend bringing wetter, cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions. Today through Sunday: After the dry cold front moving thru the area bringing improved ventilation via gusty southwest winds along with some remote spotty sprinkles clears the area this evening the ridge influencing the area will rebound and amplify some.
Temperatures will moderate through the week and mainly dry conditions expected as high pressure dominates until late in the week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows at night in the lower to mid 50s.
/issued 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ A cold front moved through most of the Midsouth today. North wind behind the front along with clearing skies and a drier airmass will result in much cooler temperatures tonight.
Upper level trough axis/surface frontal boundary are currently crossing the CWA, with the front currently east of Pittsburgh. The bulk of the activity will depart with the boundary and trough by 06Z, with perhaps a few lingering showers in the ridges mainly after midnight. A stratus deck will linger around dawn thanks to the wet ground and the cooler airmass behind the front. Dry conditions return Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
809 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Showers will taper off from the west through this evening as a cold front moves through the region. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through mid week. The cold front is pushing east across our area this afternoon, currently located along the I-71 corridor. The NAM is much more moist in the low levels than the GFS later tonight but this may have something to do with possible fog development if we do clear out. Will range lows tonight from the mid to upper 30s in the far west to the low 40s across the east. Will allow for partly cloudy skies in the morning and then a decreasing cloud trend through the afternoon as the low level flow begins to back around to the southwest.
This pattern will create strong nighttime cooling, bringing lows to the lower to mid 30s. High pressure centered over west central IL this evening will shift eastward overnight, bringing light winds and clear skies to the area. With the upper level trof moving out of the region and High pressure building back into the Midwest, winds will fall to near calm overnight. with highs peaking in the low 60s. The upper level pattern will give way to weak zonal flow, with High pressure lingering across the se US. This will limit the potential southern movement of any forming Low pressure systems in Canada.
858 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 The surface cold front was finally pushing to the southeast of the TN Valley this evening, leaving northerly winds in its wake. Dry conditions will persist through the beginning of the work week in the wake of a cold front, as Monday looks to be another beautiful day with high temperatures topping out in the low 70s. Will begin a gradual warming trend as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to slide over the Central Plains and heights increase over the area. Veering flow starts to increase overnight, with lows nudging back up near 50 degrees, a little warmer than we have seen the past several nights.
Tonight through Monday: A weak cold front will continue to push south of the ArkLaMiss region as we start the new work week. The front will be followed by high pressure and a continuation of dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
623 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 (This evening through Monday) Slightly cooler conditions will continue across the area for the remainder of this afternoon. Otherwise, look for a cool night in the low to mid 50s.
845 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Skies have cleared across the Mid-South this evening as high pressure is beginning to build into the region. /issued 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ A cold front moved through most of the Midsouth today. North wind behind the front along with clearing skies and a drier airmass will result in much cooler temperatures tonight.
Record or near record high temperatures can be anticipated through mid-week as strong high pressure remains in control of our weather. High pressure continues to dominate the southwest with the center of the ridge currently over southern Arizona. The ridge will stay over the region through mid-week leading to continued record to near record high temperatures.
Cold front continues its eastward progress, now bisecting central Kentucky. Some of the traditional cooler spots in southern Indiana could dip into the mid/upper 30s so we will mention patchy light frost, but wouldn't expect enough coverage for a headline. Starting on Monday night, mostly zonal flow sits over the eastern half of the United States, including the Lower Ohio River Valley.
Temperatures will then trend warmer through the rest of the week. Light winds and clear skies support excellent radiational cooling potential tonight, and upstream thermals over northeastern Illinois support overnight lows in the lower and middle 30s over the frost advisory area. Highest confidence for frost formation is in the more western counties, which will be closer to the center of the high. This high will keep the short term period dry. As the high drifts east, this will place central Indiana on the backside, which will allow S to SW flow to pull in warmer air for mid week.
High pressure aloft over the western states will maintain a warm, dry and stable airmass across the region through much of the week.
Otherwise breezy winds have continued to keep temps in the upper 40s and 50s, much warmer than last night. Tonight will be warmer due to the steady south winds. A cold front will move through the FA on Monday, with gusty northwest winds behind it.
211 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Gusty wind today has removed haze over much of the Pacific Northwest today as a dry cold front moves through. A change is expected over the upcoming weekend bringing wetter, cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions. Today through Sunday: After the dry cold front moving thru the area bringing improved ventilation via gusty southwest winds along with some remote spotty sprinkles clears the area this evening the ridge influencing the area will rebound and amplify some.
Humidities in the low-to-mid teens are expected elsewhere. High pressure engulfs the western CONUS in the wake of Monday's system. Winds will relax as the ridge builds over the Great Basin and dry and warm conditions continue through much of the coming week. Still some uncertainties lie with the strength of the trough and amount of moisture that will actually reach the CWA, as this occurs at the end of the forecast period and much can change between now and then.
505 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. Weak low pressure will cross the region Monday.
1034 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Coastal trough remains in place across the area, with hi-res guidance still wanting to focus some increase in showers and isolated storms, mainly along the coast into tonight, as deep moisture and onshore flow persists. Skies will remain cloudy to mostly cloudy across much of the area, with lows in the low to mid 70s, expect upper 60s possible northwest of the I-4 corridor. N/NE flow west of coastal trough may allow some MVFR, localized IFR cigs to persist across mainly inland TAF sites into tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible, as a coastal trough remains positioned near to just off the east central Florida coast.
1040 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through mid week. This high will offer dry weather conditions. Surface cold front and associated showers pushed east of ILN/s FA early this evening. Have allowed a range of lows from the mid and upper 30s in the far west to the lower 40s east. Will allow for partly cloudy skies in the morning and then a decreasing cloud trend through the afternoon as the low level flow begins to back around to the southwest.
After a cool start this morning with readings in the 30s, warmer air was advecting onto the Central Plains today in rising heights aloft behind a departing upper trough. With warm airmass across our region, temps will be noticeably warmer Monday, rising well above normal into the low/mid 80s. Considered a fire weather watch for our western zones where RH will be the lowest, however despite deep aftn mixing, wind speeds and gusts look to remain below criteria for a fire weather headline.
727 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Line of showers has filled in this evening so bumped up pops accordingly, but all of this activity will be exiting to the east in the next 2 to 3 hours, with cold/dry advection kicking in behind the cold front. A cold front stretched through KY from a little east of KCVG to KBWG late this afternoon. Dominating high pressure moving in from the northwest will then bring clear skies Monday night. Otherwise, frost could be a concern as the high passes over.
557 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 The early afternoon regional surface analysis placed a north-south trough from eastern MT to the OK/TX Panhandle. A dry cold front is progged to move through central and eastern WY Monday morning, and across southeast WY and the NE Panhandle by late Monday afternoon.
945 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. Weak low pressure will cross the region Monday.
926 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A cold front will pass through overnight and high pressure will return for Monday and Monday night.
Prior discussion below: Tonight through Monday: A weak cold front will continue to push south of the ArkLaMiss region as we start the new work week. The front will be followed by high pressure and a continuation of dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure is in control of North Texas weather this evening with light northeast winds behind this morning's cold front. Outlying areas may drop into the low/mid 40s, while more urban areas should stay in the lower 50s. Above normal temperatures are expected each day with no significant cold front moving through the region. A deep longwave trough in the eastern CONUS continues to influence the trajectory that storm systems are taking. This will prevent cold fronts from pushing into the region, leading to a gradual day-to-day increase in daytime temperatures through the week. As is usually the case, a deep East Coast trough usually means the western half of the country is under an upper ridge. This upper ridge will play a role in the trajectory of the tropical systems currently in/near the Gulf of Mexico.
Support for precipitation will continue thanks to DPVA ahead of the approaching trough/surface cold front, with a shot of needed rain across the region tonight. With a cooler air mass enveloping the region behind the front, temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide by morning. Dry conditions return Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
641 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. Weak low pressure will cross the region Monday.
High pressure centered across eastern IA providing plenty of sunshine and below normal temperatures. 2) Warmer and windy on Monday. Tonight: Center of Canadian high pressure currently over the cwa will shift to southern IL by 12z Monday. For locations along and east of the MS River, lows will bottom out in the lower 30s with "widespread frost" expected. For areas west of the river, as the ridge pushes southeast of the cwa, winds will become south 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Monday: Gradient really tightens as strong clipper system tracks well north of MN, combined with high pressure sliding towards the mid-Atlantic states. The better gradient will be across our northern counties where the higher winds will occur.
Clearing will push southeast overnight as a weak cold front and northwest winds aloft bring cleaner air into the area. Temperatures on Monday will be 3-7 degrees cooler than today.
Record and near record high temperatures are expected daily for the remainder of the week as a ridge of high pressure gradually shifts eastward over the state. The eastern plains will trend several degrees warmer with lee side troughing deepening along the Front Range.
Surface ridging builds across the area today as the surface cold front shifts to our east. Temperatures will likely be near or 1-2 degrees cooler than Sunday max temperatures. With high pressure, a clear sky, and light winds, tonight will be a prime setup for efficient nighttime cooling and steam fog along river valleys with temperatures near normal.
242 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot High pressure currently exists over the southwestern quarter of the CONUS sneaking upward into the southern half of the Pacific Northwest.
/Issued 1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ /Early Morning Through Tonight/ Quiet and slightly warmer weather is expected to begin the work week and likely beyond, as a dry airmass encompasses the region underneath mostly sunny skies. The strong northwest flow that's been overhead the past 24-48 hours will begin to dampen and allow weak ridging to take hold. Meanwhile, broad ridging extending into the area from the northeast will gradually shift east of the area with modest southeast winds returning to the area later this morning. High temperatures this afternoon will only be 1-3 degrees warmer across the western CWA, where southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph by afternoon. Low temperatures will likely be several degrees warmer along/west of the I-35 corridor from this coming morning.
325 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Weak low pressure passes through the region this morning.
WRT to temperatures today, went at or above guidance for much of the forecast area with a warmer start this morning and the deep mixing and plenty of sunshine.
This southerly flow will also usher in warmer temperatures for the afternoon today and have pushed temperatures to the upper half of available guidance, or mid 70s to lower 80s.
114 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through mid week. This high will offer dry weather conditions. Surface cold front and associated showers pushed east of ILN/s FA early this evening. Have allowed a range of lows from the mid and upper 30s in the far west to the lower 40s east. Will allow for partly cloudy skies in the morning and then a decreasing cloud trend through the afternoon as the low level flow begins to back around to the southwest.
255 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern U. The trough over the Canadian Prairies heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and this remains over the area tonight. Tight pressure gradient ahead of it will keep southerly winds gusty over the east half of the area before diminishing after midnight as winds become more southwesterly behind the trough.
240 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Weak cold front moving through the region will not change a whole lot weather-wise across our area. Afternoon highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday but the only real noticeable difference should be the clearing out of the smoke/haze for a few days.
Winds will continue to decrease overnight as the dry cold front that brought breezy conditions today departs to the east. Broad ridging will build behind the front, bringing back clear skies, light winds, and unseasonably warm conditions for the first full week of October. Expect to see highs in the low 80s / upper 70s mountains for the work week, well above our average highs of upper 60s for this time of year. Overall, made little changes to the forecast package; Monday should be a bit cooler, as the warm air advection that brought mid-80s to the Basin Sunday will be cut off by lighter winds.
The lowest temperatures currently are actually in northwest Middle Tennessee, but as low clouds continue to dissipate over the Cumberland Plateau region, we should see temperatures fall into the mid to low 40s there as well. Conditions will be dry today, but cooler than yesterday thanks to light northerly winds after yesterday's frontal passage.
Line of showers has filled in this evening so bumped up pops accordingly, but all of this activity will be exiting to the east in the next 2 to 3 hours, with cold/dry advection kicking in behind the cold front. A cold front stretched through KY from a little east of KCVG to KBWG late this afternoon. Dominating high pressure moving in from the northwest will then bring clear skies Monday night. Otherwise, frost could be a concern as the high passes over.
Temperatures will moderate through the week and mainly dry conditions expected as high pressure dominates until late in the week. Temperatures will be about a category warmer today than yesterday with air mass modification and filtered sunshine through higher clouds. Tonight, the next upper trough will dig into the OH/TN valleys and result in moisture being pulled back inland from the coast as PWATs rise to around 1. Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer than tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
After a frosty start to the morning, high pressure will bring sunny skies and warming temperatures to the area today. Temperatures will warm over the next couple of days with high pressure sliding off to the east and getting southwesterly winds over the area bringing in warmer temperatures. Dry conditions will continue through the week under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures across the forecast area are in the low to middle 30s at 3 am, with similar dewpoints and light to calm winds. With good subsidence in place and the high overhead, winds should be fairly light through the day with no gusts expected and skies should be clear. The sunny skies will allow for good warming despite starting out so cool, and highs should climb into the lower to middle 60s.
Temperatures ranged from the low 30s to the upper 30s across the far western CWA where southerly winds had already begun. High pressure was sliding east of the area as the pressure gradient begun to strengthen west of the area. A couple of dry cold front passages are still expected, however as previously noted WAA returns quickly to the area, so temps do not drop much.
231 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will establish itself over the region today, with dry weather expected to persist through the week.
At the surface, trof is moving through the western Dakotas with cold front dropping through eastern MT. Cold front will cross the Northern Plains today, producing gusty northwest winds and ushering slightly cooler air into the region.
08z WV satellite shows the western ridge, in place for many days, is starting to build eastward, and is now centered over AZ. While 20 foot winds out of the north will only be in the 10 to 20 mph range, RH values will drop into the 8 to 10 percent range following the passage of the trough.
/issued 703 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ Models move the upper ridge northward into Central Florida which should shunt the rainfall northward as has been happening.
211 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will slowly build into NY and PA this afternoon, bringing an end to our sprinkles and light showers. Light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off today as high pressure pushes into NY and PA. Model soundings suggest clouds will remain stubborn through the morning hours, then give way to afternoon clearing as temperatures rise into the lower 60s.
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Combination of upper trough axis pushing east of the state and surface ridging building into the region pushes the moist southwesterly feed of moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico to the south for today.
329 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Northwest flow continues aloft with little change in strength of the high pressure core across AZ.
The surface cold front was finally pushing to the southeast of the TN Valley this evening, leaving northerly winds in its wake. Dry conditions will persist through the beginning of the work week in the wake of a cold front, as Monday looks to be another beautiful day with high temperatures topping out in the low 70s. Will begin a gradual warming trend as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to slide over the Central Plains and heights increase over the area. Veering flow starts to increase overnight, with lows nudging back up near 50 degrees, a little warmer than we have seen the past several nights.
This will create strong nighttime cooling, bringing lows to the lower to mid 30s. High pressure centered over west central IL this evening will shift eastward overnight, bringing light winds and clear skies to the area. With the upper level trof moving out of the region and High pressure building back into the Midwest, winds will fall to near calm overnight. with highs peaking in the low 60s. The upper level pattern will give way to weak zonal flow, with High pressure lingering across the se US. This will limit the potential southern movement of any forming Low pressure systems in Canada.
Minor ridging in the upper level flow, and an ejection of the colder air aloft, will support a decrease in cloud cover from west to east through the morning and early afternoon hours.
1205 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. Weak low pressure will cross the region Monday.