Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
500 MB TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF MICHIGAN AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS LOW TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
Long stretch of very warm dry weather while H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the Great Lakes Region.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK. MORE PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WITH DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE AND GREATLY REDUCED POP'S. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN AND WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RETURN FLOW. THE RIDGE ALOFT FROM DURING THE WEEK MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND GIVE US SOME GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ BROAD UPPER RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE S. TEMPS TODAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER THANKS TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THEN READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN 500MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
AREA OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER RIDGE.
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING AWAY AND HAS TAKEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH IT. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. 590DM UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT AND KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE REACHED.
618 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 Broad ridging that has been in place across the central U. will slide slightly eastward today, allowing stronger southerly flow and slightly warmer temperatures to build into the area.
WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST AND DAMPENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AN INVERTED TROF (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) HAS SLIPPED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE TROF AXIS WAS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST. DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE NEAR TERM. FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK COASTAL SURFACE TROF/SEA BREEZE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS. POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. BUT COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. 12 INCHES) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. 4 INCH RANGE) SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TODAY IN TANDEM WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXPECT THE BEST AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO SET UP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) LIFTING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE NEAR SHORE.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AROUND 15Z. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SAG INTO WEST/NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON.
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
SO DROPPED AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
WITH THE BARELY NOTICEABLE BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THE REGION IS STILL UNDER A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO POP UP. HAVE GONE FOR WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND INHIBIT CONVECTION COVERAGE A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP NOTED IN SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECT THIS AND REST OF MID LEVELS TO CONTINUE WARMING WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. THIS LOW WAS PART OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WITH A 591DKM HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25- 26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
846 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK.
1151 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A WARMER TODAY. ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD DRAW ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE BARELY NOTICABLE BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THE REGION IS STILL UNDER A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO POP UP. HAVE GONE FOR WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
Given the trof solution with some convection and associated cloud cover forecast daytime high temperatures should run on the cool side of normal while overnight lows will stay closer to normal but may lie slightly on the cool side as well.
WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
1011 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID- ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN.
1016 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 COLD FRONT NR A HALLOCK TO JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS TO ABOUT VALLEY CITY LINE. THE UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY.
Deeper mixing and less cloud should provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend.
422 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 302 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST CONTINUED TO EXPAND EWRD ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER PROVES THE DOMINANCE OF THE SAID UA RIDGE. ALTHOUGH SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN A BIT THIS AFTN /WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS/. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND SERN CO. THE PRESENCE OF THE UA RIDGE AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 TEMPS SUGGESTS ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP /90S/ FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT /60S AND 70S/. UPPER RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.
RADAR STILL INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NIGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED BETWEEN AUSTIN AND MATAGORDA BAY. 42 UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ARKANSAS AND INTO S TX EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND TROF AXIS NUDGING A BIT CLOSER TONIGHT & TUE WE SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AREAWIDE TUE & WED. UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS INTO THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. MODEL CAMPS STILL SPLIT ON THE TROF/LOW MOVEMENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE EAST. THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
COOLER NAM MOS HAS BEEN BETTER RECENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THAT LEAD. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BLANKETING THE SOUTHERN U. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STEADILY DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS DEEP MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. THESE HIGH POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS NNE INTO VA. SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80S EAST. A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURES ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL TREND. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH 500MB ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.
Convection is still expected to develop northward through the day as the trough slowly drifts north- northeast.
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY WITH A COOLER START AND THE VERY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. QUIET WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS EXITED INTO THE DAKOTAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY BUT AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.
SOUNDING PARAMETERS WERE MEAGER, WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES BELOW 6C/KM AND WARMER H5 TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF.
BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
1154 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
AND TUESDAY STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 68 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 66 88 69 / 30 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 66 89 69 / 30 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 62 87 64 / 30 10 10 10.
/ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. 13/MH IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
1201 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE RESULT OF THE AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THEN WILL BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ON TUE AS THE TX HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRIES TO SPREAD WESTWARD A LITTLE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
957 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1247 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions are located across Stafford to Barber counties. Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level ridging and low level troughing.
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING FOCUSING THE HIGHER POPS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER RADAR TRENDS. THE UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD ECFL.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 73 61 74 / 90 90 60 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 73 59 75 / 80 90 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 72 61 73 / 90 90 70 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 70 55 72 / 70 90 60 20 NC.
High pressure will be in control of the regions weather for Christmas Eve and through much of Christmas day.
537 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/issued 359 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) Expect ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight, with light winds, dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s to near 40, and mostly clear skies. A strong upper-level trough will develop across the Inter-mountain West during the day Friday, with a closed mid-level low developing across southern Arizona/northwestern Mexico.
Drier conditions are likely to persist across western Kansas through Christmas Day as short range models indicate the flow aloft becoming more southwesterly while upper level troughing deepens across the Intermountain West. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be similar to this morning's lows with little change to the general air mass across the high plains. Warmer high temperatures are likely Christmas Day as a prevailing southerly flow draws warmer air northward into the high plains with H85 temperatures climbing above 5C across much of southwest and central Kansas.
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BRIEF LULL WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY BEFORE DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST RELOADS AND EJECTS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES UP BACKSIDE OF EASTERN RIDGE.
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM LAKE HURON INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ANOTHER FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK TROF RAN FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO KANSAS. 18Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH AN IMPLIED INVERTED TROF FROM THE LOW INTO IOWA. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT BUCHANAN. TO A DIRECT HIT OF ALL OF IOWA AND WISCONSIN WITH FREEZING RAIN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WITH A NEAR 25 KT LL JET RIDING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
645 PM MDT A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGING IN COLDER CANADIAN AIR.
/issued 219 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015/ There is a broad upper level trough over most of the conus today putting the CWA under southwest flow aloft. The upper trough is expected to deepen and strengthen over the western conus on Christmas Day.
THE HIGH-RES MDOEL (HRRR) CONTINUES TO INDICATE SEA FOG CONTINUING TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY SPREADING FIRST TO THE COAST AND THEN INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
Warm front is taking shape and cold front trails due south into East TX. Light SElys becoming prevalent along/north of developing warm front/sector over PAH FA. Between 06z-12Z Friday, we really see that Gulf Coast moisture surge northward into/across the warm sector, as the warm front lifts out and the cold front/inverted trof sweeps thru. This trend continues into/thru the day Christmas Day (Friday), as the Low drags the front on across western Ky, and the moisture/instability axis likewise advects across southern/western Ky.
RETREATING WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS YIELDING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS.
SLICK ROADWAYS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR FREEZING. AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST EXPECT COOLER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND AN END TO SHOWERS BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.