Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
20 Not much to talk about in the fcst period as the regime sees little change with the main influencing feature being a weak upper low meandering along the northern Gulf states somewhat trapped by a broad ridge.
1257 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
655 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will extend into the region for the rest of the week bringing typical summertime conditions -- warm and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
736 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today with a weak disturbance before high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday. As it does, a weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Some model solutions produce qpf Thursday afternoon/evening, though think this is overdone given unfavorable model soundings and ridging in place.
1019 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Low level ridging centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico has maintained the northeasterly steering sampled by the 12Z KKEY RAOB from the SFC through 600 mb. Water vapor imagery highlights an upper level trough stretching to the southwest across Cuba to near Honduras; this will come into play this weekend.
Highs today will reach the lower 90s along the coast before onshore winds pick up some in the mid to late afternoon.
Surface analysis showing a closed low near Casper. a closed upper low remains.
The high pressure center that has been centered over the eastern gulf is starting to slowly move north.
This will bring cooler temperatures across the interior, along a few showers over Del Norte County and possibly Northern Humbodlt county. Westerly onshore flow is forecast to increase just south of the low, which will aid in moistening the airmass over northwestern CA.
Southwest flow aloft is in place across the region, with some mid and high level cloudiness filtering in over the higher terrain. High pressure over Texas, and an upper closed low off the Washington coast, will keep southwest flow aloft in place across the Four Corners region. Temps are expected to climb into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain by midday, then spread across the adjacent plains through the aftn and early eve.
expect another round of thunderstorms to develop across the high plains. With the ridge amplifying aloft by the end of the week. The upper level ridge is expected to flatten out some late in the weekend.
535 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today with a weak disturbance before high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday. As it does, a weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Some model solutions produce qpf Thursday afternoon/evening, though think this is overdone given unfavorable model soundings and ridging in place.
641 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A round of storms developed on the nose of the low level jet overnight, along the southwestern edge of the CWA. Given the extra boost from the low level jet, a couple of these storms could still be strong to severe this morning, producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. The ridge will remain in place Wednesday night through Thursday.
With high pressure aloft now dominate over West Central Texas, these two periods will be dry, with temperatures unusually mild, for this time of year. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 80s to around 90; that's slightly cooler than usual late June highs and frankly mild for early summer.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 70 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 90 68 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 62 88 64 / 10 10 10 10.
1054 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will extend into the region for the rest of the week bringing typical summertime conditions -- warm and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
548 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Numerous complexes of storms moving across the High Plains early this morning. Therefore, expect the complex near the highway 14 corridor to struggle, but could produce some brief rain. Could see a few storms develop along the highway 20 corridor this morning as weak warm air advection could lead to develop under a very weak cap. Have focused highest pops north of I-90, where the nose of the low level jet is focused. With this complex of storms working into an unstable environment, and encountering better shear with time as the low level jet develops, expect severe potential to remain throughout the overnight hours as complex shifts east.
and Thursday Weak high pressure should produce a mostly sunny and warm day today. Middle and high clouds will increase late tonight as an upper trough approaches from the Northern Plains and warm advection increases. Think there is some potential for strong or severe storms Thursday afternoon, especially in the central part of the state in the vicinty of the warm front.
/Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ Upper level ridging will build in today with high pressure centered over West Texas. The upper level ridge will move west slightly on Thursday but PWATS will remain above normal, around 1. Numerical models continue to show a weak upper level ridge sliding into the region by Thursday with a drying trend expected to accompany the weak subsidence.
A low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend.
expect another round of thunderstorms to develop across the high plains. With the ridge amplifying aloft by the end of the week. The upper level ridge is expected to flatten out some late in the weekend. expect mainly clear skies on Wednesday with only a few passing high clouds as a ridge of high pressure builds across the area aloft. expect an area of low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies to intensify tomorrow afternoon.
Weak H500 troughing is apparent across our area per mesoanalysis with this feature progged to shift east and dampen through this afternoon. Remained conservative with PoP, although the highest probability should exist across northern AR invof any lingering boundary from the morning MCS as well as southern and eastern portions of the state. Otherwise, surface ridging will creep west as upper ridging builds across the area. While an isolated thunderstorm will be possible nearly anywhere Thursday afternoon given the moist/unstable air mass in place, thinking most activity will be confined to eastern areas away from the upper ridge.
1011 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday.
705 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
Low pressure off the Pacific Northwest continues to drape its trailing trough down along the west coast. With the trough in place the marine layer will be lifting.
1020 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
501 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Currently - Temperatures range from the upper 70s in sheltered inland locations of the Lower Keys, to 85 degrees in well mixed coastal areas. Local radars show what is left of this precipitation gradually diminishing it approaches our waters, with one notable line of cumulus attempting to form showers to the west of the Lower Keys. An inverted trough will develop in the eastern Gulf on Thursday night and deepen as it progresses westward.
/issued 323 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ Models show upper ridge will gradually build and continue to influence the region through the rest of this week. This ridge will diminish/end rain chances for at least several days for much of the fa. However, depending on strength and position of the ridge, sfc heating and the moist airmass in the area could lead to some afternoon/early evening shower/storm development. Models show the ridge will break down later this weekend as a easterly wave approaches and moves into the southern Plains.
541 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Southwesterly flow will be in place over the region today as the ridge axis nudges to the east. The ridge will be the more dominant feature for the remainder of this week, holding the H5 trough along the Pacific NW coast, and deflecting vort wrapping around it into ID/MT.
320 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A distinct cooling trend is expected today through Thursday as a low pressure system stalls near the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure will be northwest of the region Today. Readings will trend closer to the lower 90s near the coast, as nearshore water temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s.
622 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low off the coast of Washington state with a trough extending south to off the coast of central California. Southwesterly flow aloft extended from this trough east to the Central Rockies. Across Canada, closed low pressure was located over northern Saskatchewan with another low over northeastern Ontario. As for precipitation chances, will place the highest pops in the north, where low level moisture is most prevalent, and where the nose of the low level jet is forecast to lie this evening.
Temperatures will continue to rise this week as high pressure builds over the region.
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 There are some LIFR conditions at TXK and ELD this morning, but the low level moisture can be seen on IR lifting northward out of the area. High temperatures should be around 90 area-wide with lows in the lower 70s. With this in mind, have lowered pops for tomorrow afternoon and have raised high temperatures into the lower 90s as well.
948 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today with a weak disturbance before high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday. As it does, a weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Some model solutions produce qpf Thursday afternoon/evening, though think this is overdone given unfavorable model soundings and ridging in place.
High pressure building in at the surface and rising heights aloft will provide us with generaly quiet weather conditions today and tonight with thunderstorm chances less than 20%. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon, with peak heat index readings in the lower 90s along and west of I-65.
Then on Thursday, the upper level flow becomes more southerly as an upper level low moves more inland over the Pacific Northwest. A slow moving cold front associated with this system moves across the Northern Rockies.
552 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Central Illinois falls between an upper low over the southern portions of Hudson Bay. and ridging over the southeastern CONUS. A slow moving cold front has edged into the NW corner of the state. For the remainder of today, that cold front will not make it very far, pivoting to a more E/W orientation as the surface temps are progged to climb into the upper 80s. Through the weekend, the pattern is dominated by deep ridging across the center of the country. If an MCS were to break the pattern, the highs would also come into question.
742 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today with a weak disturbance before high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday. As it does, a weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Some model solutions produce qpf Thursday afternoon/evening, though think this is overdone given unfavorable model soundings and ridging in place.
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today with a weak disturbance before high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday. As it does, a weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Some model solutions produce qpf Thursday afternoon/evening, though think this is overdone given unfavorable model soundings and ridging in place.
Overnight lows will be warming through the period as well, with some ridge/valley splits given the nighttime inversion. Either way increasing temperatures and moisture will give way to a more unstable airmass through the period and lead to stretches of afternoon convection mainly on the higher terrain initially.
Low pressure across the central high plains will maintain southerly surface winds, as afternoon heating/vertical mixing will be increasing gusts up through 00Z. /issued 323 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ Models show upper ridge will gradually build and continue to influence the region through the rest of this week. This ridge will diminish/end rain chances for at least several days for much of the fa. However, depending on strength and position of the ridge, sfc heating and the moist airmass in the area could lead to some afternoon/early evening shower/storm development. Models show the ridge will break down later this weekend as a easterly wave approaches and moves into the southern Plains.
Diurnal convection may again form Thursday afternoon on the periphery of the upper ridge. The southwest to northeast orientated upper ridge will continue to build into the forecast area into this weekend.
expect another round of thunderstorms to develop across the high plains. With the ridge amplifying aloft by the end of the week. The upper level ridge is expected to flatten out some late in the weekend. Additional scattered storms could redevelop again after midnight as the low-level jet increases.
328 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday.
126 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A round of storms developed on the nose of the low level jet overnight, along the southwestern edge of the CWA. Given the extra boost from the low level jet, a couple of these storms could still be strong to severe this morning, producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. The ridge will remain in place Wednesday night through Thursday.
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 We will be heading into a quieter weather period as we see out the week and head into the weekend as upper level high pressure centered over Northern Mexico today expands to the north-northeast and as the center of the ridge shifts northward to a position over New Mexico late in the week.
High pressure in place over southern Appalachia will provide warm.
353 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the central CONUS and is forecast to remain in place through Thursday. Highs will remain in the 90s with dewpoints forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s, pushing afternoon heat indicies into the low 100s. This large ridge of high pressure will help to maintain mostly dry weather through the extended with a few showers and storms possible across northern portions of the forecast area, as disturbances ripple through the upper flow.
Otherwise, lows tonight should drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s, and highs on Thursday should be a couple/few degrees warmer than today.
Like previous nights, there may be additional storms that develop farther east later into the overnight as the low-level jet ramps up overhead. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday evening and overnight as we see increased ridging aloft.
/issued 529 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ (Today and Tonight) With high pressure aloft now dominate over West Central Texas, these two periods will be dry, with temperatures unusually mild, for this time of year. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 80s to around 90; that's slightly cooler than usual late June highs and frankly mild for early summer.
Kept slight chance pops for now, but may need to ramp up afternoon/evening pops if more models get on board with the latest solutions from the HRRR/WRF this morning showing that amplified trough aloft and developing convection later today.
An upper low off the PacNW coast will spread moisture and instability into northeast Oregon today. Upper level support associated with the low will enhance the potential for strong thunderstorms in Baker County, capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts.
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast through the weekend.
133 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather.
1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Numerous complexes of storms moving across the High Plains early this morning. Therefore, expect the complex near the highway 14 corridor to struggle, but could produce some brief rain. Could see a few storms develop along the highway 20 corridor this morning as weak warm air advection could lead to develop under a very weak cap. Have focused highest pops north of I-90, where the nose of the low level jet is focused. With this complex of storms working into an unstable environment, and encountering better shear with time as the low level jet develops, expect severe potential to remain throughout the overnight hours as complex shifts east.
Cloud debris and northeast winds have kept high a few degrees cooler than earlier forecast as well. Later tonight convection coming off the front range may make it into north central Kansas late in the night within the low level jet axis so kept pops mainly to the west of Highway 81 into early morning Thursday. Lows tonight drop into the lower 70s with highs on Thursday near 90 to 95.
A low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain breezy and warm conditions across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend. The upper level trough continues to push into the Great Basin today further increasing the southwest flow aloft and gusty surface winds.
With the area under deep-layer ridging, we expect any convection that does get going in the late afternoon to be dissipated with an hour or two after sunset.
This front is forecast to push north as ridging aloft amplifies over the Plains over the upcoming day. As the ridge continues to amplify Thursday, expect high temperatures increasing slightly, reaching around 90 degrees with heat index in the mid 90s.
Although a weakening trough around 700 mb will linger near our western counties tonight, the potential for additional precipitation after midnight appears too low at this time.
High pressure to the northwest has directed dry air into the forecast area.
119 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast through the weekend.
In the upper levels, an upper ridge will build across the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Kept slight chance pops for now, but may need to ramp up afternoon/evening pops if more models get on board with the latest solutions from the HRRR/WRF this morning showing that amplified trough aloft and developing convection later today. Weak high pressure at the surface will help keep a lid on convection across most of Middle Tennessee.
Thursday will begin a warm-up with highs in the low 90s.
1228 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today with a weak disturbance before high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday. As it does, a weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Some model solutions produce qpf Thursday afternoon/evening, though think this is overdone given unfavorable model soundings and ridging in place.
107 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday.
Generally quiet wx through Thursday as high pressure tries to hang on. Some loosely organized convection across the lower OH Valley/Mid MS Valley should diminish on approach to our western and southern counties tonight.
1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low off the coast of Washington state with a trough extending south to off the coast of central California. Southwesterly flow aloft extended from this trough east to the Central Rockies. Across Canada, closed low pressure was located over northern Saskatchewan with another low over northeastern Ontario. As for precipitation chances, will place the highest pops in the north, where low level moisture is most prevalent, and where the nose of the low level jet is forecast to lie this evening.
Thereafter, a retrograding weak/broad upper low is expected to track across Texas. This low, or its remnants (i.
247 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Low level ridging centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico has maintained the northeasterly SFC-600 mb steering sampled by the 12Z KKEY RAOB. Water vapor imagery highlights an upper level trough stretching to the southwest across Cuba to near Honduras; this will come into play this weekend. Temperatures are in the lower 90s across the island chain with dewpoints in the mid 70s. The one east of the Bahamas sits within the divot between the two low- level anticyclones, the other is over east- central Cuba. These pieces will phase into an inverted trough as they spread northwest tonight through Thursday night. At the same time, the upper level low over the Caribbean will phase with lower heights digging south into the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure building in from the northwest has brought drier air to the area that mixed downed this afternoon over inland areas.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in full control tonight keeping skies mostly clear with light winds. Used the warmer MET guidance for highs which will bring widespread upper 80's to lower 90's to the entire region, except mid 90's in the southern valley.
Storms are currently developing over the higher terrain of southwest Montana and north central Idaho and will move northward with time through west central and northwest Montana.
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure to the northwest has directed dry air into the forecast area.
High pressure to the northwest of the region will shift to the north of the waters on Thursday and then to the northeast this weekend.
719 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday.
A light to moderate southeast flow was noted over the forecast area, Upper air analysis showed a short wave over Missouri, a developing ridge axis from New Mexico to the northern Plains, and weak ridge from northeast Gulf to western Atlantic. 65 inches over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas coast. Synoptic pattern will become stable as the ridge axis over the Plains will amplify through the weekend.
Ridging aloft analyzed across the Panhandles was implied on water vapor satellite to be building slowly eastward. At the surface, widespread upper 40s to lower 60s dew points are in place across the Panhandles with dew points in the 30s and lower 40s west of a trough across eastern New Mexico. High pressure was still in place across the southeastern CONUS, with flow northward from the Gulf occurring across much of Texas on the west side of this feature. As the ridge builds eastward today, disturbance seen over northern NM should kick off some thunderstorms across the higher elevations across NE NM, which will then attempt to trek eastward into the Panhandles.
730 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast through the weekend.
1025 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday.
/issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/ We will be heading into a quieter weather period as we see out the week and head into the weekend as upper level high pressure centered over Northern Mexico today expands to the north-northeast and as the center of the ridge shifts northward to a position over New Mexico late in the week.
Low pressure is located along the boundary over east-central WY. Upper level analysis shows slowly building ridge centered over the Plains, with southwest flow extending from the southwest US into the high plains, ahead of upper low off the Pacific NW coast.
Quiet WX pattern overnight as an H100-H70 anticyclone centered over the MS/AL bootheels generates a deep but light N/NE breeze than will tap a dry low/mid lvl airmass: H100-H70 mean RH values largely AOB 60pct and H85-H50 avg dewpoint depressions btwn 7-10C.