Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A trough off the West Coast combining with a trough developing in the Gulf of Alaska will impact the weather over the next several days. A weak disturbance ahead of this trough is moving through the region this morning, producing light rain showers in the valleys and light snow over the higher terrain. A warm front associated with the trough off the West Coast is expected to move through from the southwest on Wednesday morning, bringing showers to the region. Warmer air aloft moves into the area by Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures in the low 60s in the valleys, and snow levels rising to around 7500-8500ft.
A line of showers and storms is set to cross the waters out ahead of a cold front from early to mid afternoon across the nrn waters to late afternoon/evening across the south.
Highs over the lower elevations should be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Though we are carrying some decent PoPs in the high country, we dont expect there to be much accumulation or notable widespread impacts. Warm end to the work week as a ridge of high pressure will be in control over the region.
742 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow through nrn Ontario into the nrn Great Lakes between a trough over Quebec and a ridge through northwest Ontario.
North to northeasterly winds will try to usher low level dry are into the area this morning however, late this morning the winds relax and and model sounding indicate increased saturation in the lower levels. High pressure will remain in control on Wednesday allowing for mostly sunny skies.
Meant to mention in the Winter Weather Advisory that the higher elevations of Sumner and Macon counties should also be included.
We are looking for a good deal of deep moisture to move back in across N GA around the back side of the low center this afternoon and tonight. This will bring rain to the area and it will turn over to snow as a cooler airmass moves into the area overnight.
711 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
1036 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Surge of high pressure moved through the region early this morning resulting in breezy conditions over land and strong northerly winds across the Gulf waters. In addition, cooler air and reinforced dry air will lead to rather pleasant day today.
816 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A warm front will lift northward and into the area today ahead of approaching low pressure. As the low moves into the region this afternoon, thunderstorms can be expected, potentially severe.
The low clouds that were in place across much of the area this morning are starting to break up and will enhance the instability over the land areas for later this afternoon as we get more heating.
Today will be mostly dry, with weak high pressure over the area.
Cooler air and lower snow levels are expected toward the end of the week into the early portion of the weekend. High and mid layer clouds have been streaming over the region through the night in advance of a positively tilted upper trough centered well offshore to our southwest. The offshore upper trough will start to transition eastward toward the coast on Wednesday and light to moderate rain should steadily increase through the day into the evening hours.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy and cool conditions for today with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Otherwise, periods of mid- high clouds will affect rest of CWA as upstream inverted trof weakens as it moves east and runs into short wave ridging and drier air. Colder low level air has settled into southern WI so daytime temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Upper ridge begins building into the state tonight. Warming through midweek with the ridge building will accelerate melting of the snow pack. Upper trof moving into the northern Rockies during the weekend will bring cold and wet weather back to Montana for the end of the week.
920 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
1141 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 An upper level trough will approach the region this afternoon and support scattered thunderstorms, some possibly severe.
Brisk northeasterly winds should continue through the day today as low pressure moves through the Upper Ohio Valley while strong high pressure remains parked over Ontario. Highs closer to the lake should top out in the middle to upper 30s, while only reaching the low to middle 40s well inland.
Issued by National Weather Service ST LOUIS MO 1157 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A storm system will makes it way to the east today but lingering clouds and cooler temperatures will follow in its wake.
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A storm system will makes it way to the east today but lingering clouds and cooler temperatures will follow in its wake.
Gusty northeast winds persist with the higher wave action persisting. Expect partly to mostly cloudy and cool conditions for today with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Otherwise, periods of mid- high clouds will affect rest of CWA as upstream inverted trof weakens as it moves east and runs into short wave ridging and drier air. Colder low level air has settled into southern WI so daytime temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
12z soundings support warmer temperatures in the mid/upper 70s but CAA and mixing from the winds will be competing with full sunshine and warm 850 mb temps. 42 Elevated north winds and seas (caution in the bays and advisories offshore) can be expected this morning in the wake of a cold front. The offshore flow will diminish during the afternoon and evening hours (bays starting late this morning and offshore this afternoon) as high pressure builds into the area. The high will move off to the east on Wednesday and will allow southeast winds to resume. Expect increasing gusty north winds this morning through early this afternoon, but with the cooler temperatures, relative humidities look to bottom out between 25% and 35%.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 35 48 32 / 50 30 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 35 40 28 / 70 60 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 59 35 42 28 / 70 50 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 35 39 25 / 80 80 70 40 TN.
637 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 An upper ridge will build in from the west as an upper low tracks east across the Ohio Valley today. Southeast winds will return on Wednesday as the ridge moves east of the forecast area.
This should hold the high temperatures down a bit while the more sunny locations to the south see values from the mid 60s to possibly near 70 in some warmer locations near the coast. /issued 413 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/ Cold front making its way offshore this morning bringing with it dry and cold air advection.
634 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Cold front will continue to track southeast across northwest Iowa this afternoon, exiting the area over the next few hours. Upper level trough swings across the northern Plains late tonight into Thursday evening. With a cooler airmass in place and clouds increasing from the west, temperatures will be cooler than today.
For Thu, mean upper trough will finally be shifting east.
There is quite a bit of dry air in the lowest 10kft or so of the atmosphere, which is limiting the intensity and overall impact.
526 PM MDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Upper trough is sitting across the central CONUS with strong ridging developing across the western third.
847 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Update Rain showers will develop very late tonight through Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley region Thursday.
Greater potential looks to be within the higher terrain locations of Northwest Arkansas.
702 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Update regarding the rest of this evening/tonight: Would hesitate to call it a "major overhaul", as we were not expecting much precip to begin with, but did make some tweaks to the earlier-issued forecast through the rest of tonight (through 7AM Thursday): 1) Tried to refine/concentrate the highest rain chances (PoPs) within the narrow corridor currently evident on radar and tracking southeast mainly within the southeast half of the CWA. Upper level trough axis is making its way across the Central Plains. Mid-level frontogenetic forcing still giving us showers in the south/southeast ahead of the cold front. More showers behind cold front, with stratus.
BUFKIT soundings taken from Bismarck to Dickinson does show some potential/briefly of potential light freezing rain Thursday night, thus left the ProbIce present grids as they were, which shows a loss across ice aloft.
The higher resolution models do not bring any pcpn into the northwest FA until late Thursday afternoon or early evening.
1045 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Surface map this afternoon has a low pressure system over western Ontario with a cold front extending from northeast to south central MN. The cold front pushes through this evening, but expected to come through dry with just some increase in cloud cover. High pressure builds in Thursday, settling in overhead Thursday night. Thursday expected to be sunny but a bit cooler with highs in the 40s. Partly cloudy skies will prevail Thursday night with the high overhead along with light winds. Otherwise, plan on lows in the lower to middle 20s.
713 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 At 315 PM, a cold front continued to move eastward across the Northland. Temperatures warmed into the lower 50s ahead of the front, with gusty southwest winds.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through late week with daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. A strong ridge of high pressure centered around 500 miles west of the California coast continues to dominate the weather pattern along the West Coast. Inland areas can expect to warm into the lower/middle 80s with 70s along the coast where weak offshore flow will be possible.
919 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Strong high pressure will sit just off the Southeast coast through tonight, before drifting slowly east and offshore on Thursday.
First of which is the main player, the upper level trough axis which continues to open up as it moves into the Middle Red River Basin of S OK into N TX. Large scale lift helping to ignite additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms across far Southern and Central Texas and this activity will likely be moving our way through the remainder of the overnight hours as the trough nears from the west. A pseudo cold front has pushed south of our region this evening, becoming reinforced by the ongoing convection to our south and east.
Precipitation will decrease in coverage as well, as moisture associated with the trough shifts eastward into the plains. No changes have been made to the current Winter Weather Advisory product, and the forecast for 2-5 inches of snow in the higher elevations above 8500 feet in the Park range remains on track through midnight.
MOS, gridded and sounding guidance not indicating significant fog formation tonight with temps a bit warmer and boundary layer winds increasing through the night from the south.
A cold front will begin moving into the area around 12z with gusty northwest winds. /issued 216 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ Upper level trough is approaching west Texas with some instability cumulus clouds currently developing in the mountains and immediate adjacent plains. Expecting that an isolated shower or thunderstorm could be possible across much of the forecast area late this afternoon as the cold pool aloft associated with the upper trough drifts overhead (-22 C at 500 millibars) with low level heating enhancing instability. Looks like a return to quiet weather again Thursday and the next several days as this trough passes by.
752 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Strong high pressure will sit just off the Southeast coast through tonight, before drifting slowly east and offshore on Thursday.
Winds will increase early tomorrow morning from the north behind a cold front.
659 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A weak disturbance embedded in SW flow ahead of the main upper level trough approaching from the west has developed an increasingly sizable area of showers mainly west of I-55 and moving northeastward this afternoon. A persistent broad trough over the central and eastern U. Numerous disturbances embedded in this trough will potentially affect central and southeast Illinois with periodic precipitation chances, while the temperatures will remain cool for the season.
High pressure off the southeast U. Low pressure riding up the front will further assist in generating a more concentrated area of rainfall late tonight into Thursday. Rain will then continue Thursday night as the parent upper trough advances from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley.
The latest ir satl was showing high pressure over the epac that is ridging into the two state area. A disturbance riding over the top of the ridge was spilling clouds into or/wa and this pattern will continue overnight.
Cold front is dropping south over the southern portion of the cwa this late afternoon. Will continue the low PoPs south through about 00z. Still should see temperatures warm into the lower 40s across the south.
900 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Periods of rain will continue through Thursday night with crossing waves of low pressure.
Some lingering showers in the base of the trough will change to or mix with snow tomorrow evening.
Under southwesterly deep layer flow aloft, pcpn associated with a trof of low surface pressure has been on the light side so far with this event. Another surge of rainfall is possible after daybreak as a surface cold front sinks through the region. PoPs are forecast to drop off significantly by Thu evening with the arrival of drier air on northwesterly low level winds, though clouds may be a bit slow to clear until the mid level trof axis moves through Fri. High pressure at the surface will keep our region cool and rain-free through Fri night.
High pressure aloft will remain off the west coast through the end of the week. This high pressure will turn east and weaken as it enters the Great Basin this weekend. The lingering showers from late this afternoon have ended with the loss of daytime heating and the exit of the upper trough into western Colorado. The upper ridge locked in just off the west coast through the balance of the week will maintain a steady northwest aloft across the Great Basin.
An upper level trough to our west will move across our area tonight and Thursday. At the surface, low pressure over northwest Texas Thursday morning will move east-northeast and expect gusty northwest winds across are area during the afternoon on the backside. Also, mid and upper level subsidence will result in mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon.
12Z Upper air analysis shows a highly amplified pattern with a ridge axis having moved to off the southeast US coast. Upstream, a long wave trof was approaching the Plains states. Despite this, there are indications in the high resolution mesoscale models and SREF probabilities that patchy fog develops overnight.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through late week with daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages.
/issued 245 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ A frontal boundary currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This boundary will slowly push east through the period, along with a pre-frontal trough. The pre-frontal trough should begin to impact the western portions of the CWFA during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Moist southerly flow will continue to funnel low level moisture into the region ahead of the cold front. Models currently have the active pre-frontal trough approaching Thursday evening. If this holds, surface instability will be on the wane as the trough moves through. Behind aforementioned cold front, expect dry high pressure to dominate the region through the weekend.
All of these disturbances will be pinwheeling around the very strongly anchored Hudson Bay low pressure system. High pressure ridging from the US southwestern region will try to push up against this low pressure in a back and forth battle, but mostly the Hudson Bay low will win out for our region, keeping us in a colder and more active weather pattern.
Stacked ridging over the Florida peninsula keeps our forecast dry. and this should help keep temps a few degrees warmer. normally warmer locations at night during east/SE flow (southern Pinellas county and Charlotte Harbor areas) will likely see temperatures in the middle 60s.
Dry conditions with lighter winds are expected the rest of this week as weak ridging moves into the area.
/issued 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ A deep positively tilted upper level trough over the western Southern Plains will continue to advance east tonight. The airmass south of this surface boundary has becoming increasingly unstable with temperatures nearing 80 degrees and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. The approach of the upper trough and surface wave may result in the low level boundary shifting back slowly to the north. The upper trough to the west will push through the region on Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures should remain seasonably mild into tomorrow ahead of the primary surface cold front.
Very limited moisture tonight with a cold front moving through and will have some slight chance pops as the front moves through the area. Could be some light freezing rain with this as well, but will be very brief across the central and east. No big changes made to the going forecast and this cold front is pretty dry with a light lake effect pcpn component late tonight into Thu morning, but NAM bufkit soundings show an inverted-v look to the low levels which will limit amounts of snow and pcpn.
742 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Aviation Rain showers will develop very late tonight through Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley region Thursday.
1028 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will weaken as it moves offshore through Thursday.
The approaching trough, coupled with the right entrance region of a strenghtening anti-cyclonically curved jet streak will foster large-scale lift over the southeaster half of the region. This will allow for a brief break in rain tonight before an additional round moves in from the southwest beginning late this evening into the overnight hours as the main trough moves out of the Plains. Showers are expected to be widespread across the southeastern two- thirds of the CWA during the morning before the upper trough begins to move off to the east.
Mid-level moisture from the Pacific continues to stream northward on the eastern periphery of the trough. As the aforementioned phased trough traverses the CWA overnight into early Thursday, a weak cold front will push through the area, shifting winds to the north. Similar to this morning, localized areas of dense fog is certainly possible, especially within the low-lying areas. Low temperatures overnight are expected to range from the mid 30s across the northern areas to the lower 40s in east central KS. Any lingering rain showers or sprinkles are expected to end from northwest to southeast throughout the day Thursday as the previously mentioned trough exits the region.
/issued 637 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ 00Z TAFS A slow moving cold front will push through the area this evening into Thursday morning accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 70s. Similar to yesterday evening, KBYX indicates that the lowest level winds are at or maybe a little bit higher than when the balloon sampled those layers.
Update regarding the rest of this evening/tonight: Would hesitate to call it a "major overhaul", as we were not expecting much precip to begin with, but did make some tweaks to the earlier-issued forecast through the rest of tonight (through 7AM Thursday): 1) Tried to refine/concentrate the highest rain chances (PoPs) within the narrow corridor currently evident on radar and tracking southeast mainly within the southeast half of the CWA. Upper level trough axis is making its way across the Central Plains. Mid-level frontogenetic forcing still giving us showers in the south/southeast ahead of the cold front. More showers behind cold front, with stratus.
637 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 00Z TAFS A slow moving cold front will push through the area this evening into Thursday morning accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms.
1140 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Periods of rain will continue through Thursday night with crossing waves of low pressure.
1049 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Cold front will continue to track southeast across northwest Iowa this afternoon, exiting the area over the next few hours. Upper level trough swings across the northern Plains late tonight into Thursday evening. With a cooler airmass in place and clouds increasing from the west, temperatures will be cooler than today.
739 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure offshore will continue dry weather and above normal temperatures through Thursday.
Ridging aloft off the West Coast continues build into the region from the west.
Starting to see some visibility drops and will be keeping a close eye on how widespread the low visbys becomes. A weak disturbance embedded in SW flow ahead of the main upper level trough approaching from the west has developed an increasingly sizable area of showers mainly west of I-55 and moving northeastward this afternoon. A persistent broad trough over the central and eastern U. Numerous disturbances embedded in this trough will potentially affect central and southeast Illinois with periodic precipitation chances, while the temperatures will remain cool for the season.
This will allow for a brief break in rain tonight before an additional round moves in from the southwest beginning late this evening into the overnight hours as the main trough moves out of the Plains. Showers are expected to be widespread across the southeastern two- thirds of the CWA during the morning before the upper trough begins to move off to the east.
A cold front will bring gusty north winds through the terminals Thursday morning. /issued 256 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ Clouds have begun to clear from west to east as the axis of the upper trough pushes eastward. The trough will bring behind it another front tomorrow afternoon. The front will be weak and should only help keep highs in the low to mid 60s. The upper flow will become more northwesterly as an upper ridge sets up over the west coast.
A few light showers associated with the prefrontal trough and weak short wave aloft lifting out across the central high plains have already been observed across portions of the forecast area this afternoon. High temperatures should remain in the lower 50s on Thursday with scattered showers moving east along the Nebraska and Kansas border as a short wave trough rotates through the base of the upper trough alfot.
1214 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure will weaken as it moves offshore through Thursday.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Weak cold front to push through the area tonight but precip questionable at this point. High pressure moves in for Thursday so any remaining light precip in the far southeast will be quickly departing but we will remain in general troughiness over the region so temps will be notably cooler with highs generally in the 40's.
Rain will continue overnight as the upper trough slides eastward from the Plains. By Thursday evening, some backside rain will fill in just ahead of the approaching cold front as the upper trough axis crosses the MS River Valley.
1059 PM MDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Ridge holds off the coast through the periods keeping us in the nw flow with embedded disturbances through the period.
Northerly flow aloft will continue through tonight before becoming northwest tomorrow as a strong upper level ridge develops just off the coast of the PacNW. precipitation will end for the foreseeable future as the dryness of the ridge takes hold. Fog is possible tonight in the usual valleys, mainly in the mountains, but also in the Lower Treasure Valley, in northern Harney County, and on the Camas Prairie.