Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
One minor difference will be the influence of a weak upper level trough that could help perturb the low level flow along the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, expect high temperatures today to be slightly warmer than yesterday with lows tonight several degrees below normal under mostly clear skies.
/Issued 1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020/ /Tonight through Saturday night/ Mostly clear, warm and rain-free weather will continue across the Lone Star State through the weekend with upper level high pressure remaining sandwiched between troughs on both the West and East Coast. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be a bit warmer than the past couple of nights (mid 60s to around 70) with dewpoints about 3 to 5 degrees higher in most locations. Temperatures on Saturday will also be a slightly warmer with mainly lower and middle 90s.
Mid level ridging is providing another pleasant day across east Kentucky today with only some diurnally driven CU present across the region right now. A weak cold front dropping in from the north on Saturday, could produce a bit better afternoon CU.
A pleasant morning is in store as morning lows bottom out in the low to mid 60s. Saturday will be another summer-esque day with highs in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area besides the Osage plains which will reach into the lower 90s.
244 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Dry and comfortable conditions are expected into the weekend under building high pressure.
A reinforcing cold front in the NNW flow aloft will drop into the vicinity of SW VA toward dawn, but the very dry air in place will keep all areas mainly clear. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 63 88 61 85 / 0 0 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 61 84 58 82 / 0 0 30 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 86 61 84 58 82 / 0 0 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 78 56 76 / 10 10 50 30 40.
Some clouds will linger east of Lake Ontario into the afternoon closer to the upper level trough sliding to New England. Readings elsewhere won't be much warmer in the lower to perhaps mid 60s. Elsewhere, though not as cold, will still be a chilly night with readings around 40F into the lower 40s most areas though immediate lakeshores will see temps more in the mid to upper 40s.
A strong low pressure system push inland tonight bringing cooler temperatures along with breezy to occasionally windy conditions through Saturday. 150 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Strong low pressure just off the west coast will continue to push east this evening and into northern Nevada by Saturday morning. As the low moves inland this evening, we should see some showers and potential thunderstorms develop over the western slopes of the Sierra and along the crest. As the low continues to lift northeast winds will be a bit lower over much of the area Saturday, but gradients will remain tight enough over the eastern areas of the CWA to keep gusty winds going one more day.
This thunderstorms activity, which will be more miss than hit, is associated with a weak short wave trough moving through the ridge at this time. Ridging is expected to continue for the weekend which will keep the cloud cover and precipitation chances to a minimum. Metzger The extended range, like the last few days continues to show ridging. The ECMWF does not indicate this but continued ridging and hot temperatures however, the ECMWF seems to ignore the pattern flow leading up to the change.
VFR conditions continue under persistent high pressure across the region.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Upper level troughing was over the east and west coast early this morning, while ridging was slowly building into the Central Canada and the Plains. At the sfc, large and sprawling high pressure was covering much of Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes keeping our region quiet in the weather department. We do continue our warming trend, with highs expected to be largely in the lower to middle 60s. Dry and Trending Warmer. The troffing that has been over the eastern 1/3 of North America to end this week, and associated cool temperatures, will begin to lose influence over our local weather. Upper-level heights will rise as upstream ridging builds in behind the troffing.
321 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to dominate across the Southern and Central Plains today.
1122 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Strong upper level ridging will continue to remain over the central Plains through Saturday. The upper level ridge begins to slide eastward and break down by Saturday afternoon.
1027 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east and amplify as a NE PAC upper trough slowly advects east. This will allow slight chances for showers and TS to return as the ridge shifts east and semi-unsettled SW flow spreads into the region. Lee side trough will shift east INVOF NE WY and far western SD Sat afternoon, with late afternoon and eve sct showers and TS expected as a weak impulse shifts NE.
These clouds are associated with a sfc cold front and located in the exit region of an 80 kt upper jet.
Highs look to degrees into the low to mid 90s during the last part of the week into this weekend.
1258 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Sprawling Canadian high pressure will take over for the weekend with mainly dry weather and cooler than average air.
1026 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A strong upper ridge as well as the thermal ridge of about 15C are over the forecast area. The subsidence from this ridge will keep the area dry for the remainder of today and tonight. Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows an upper low/trough pulling into California. At the same time a stronger upper low is off the southern British Columbia Coast. A cold front will push into far western Wyoming by around 18Z Saturday, but remain stalled until Saturday night when it is expected to pull east across much of the forecast area.
234 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Hot and dry will again be the motif this Saturday as upper level ridging amplifies over the central CONUS. In what sounds like a broken record, upper level high pressure will remain centered over the south central CONUS through the forecast period. The strength of the ridge continues to favor near to just above normal temperatures with no real sign of anything more extreme.
The mid level trough will deepen today and tomorrow and as it does it will continue to stir up a few storms to our north and northwest.
Upper level ridge will remain in place which will lead to continued VFR conditions. Continued VFR with light winds through Saturday as surface ridging remains nearby. Dry air mass will remain over the region tonight through Saturday night with the mid to upper level ridge axis staying to the west.
319 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper ridge sits right over the Dakotas today as the pacific upper trough advects its way eastward.
1112 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
329 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 High pressure will be centered across the Tennessee Valley region, promoting another sunny and mostly clear day.
Satellite imagery is showing broad rotation across north Central California associated with a low pressure center which has cut off from a parent low pressure system traversing southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. This low pressure pair, with emphasis of the low over northern California, is responsible for the weather we've seen today.
1147 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 This afternoon high pressure continues to build into the Northland with an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West. Saturday the upper level ridge shifts farther east into the Plains with a stronger pressure gradient beginning to build in from the west. Warmer temperatures will return to the area with highs in the upper 60s. The region will be slightly dry with relative humidities in the lower 30s.
1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 VFR conditions to mainly prevail across area terminals as surface and upper-level ridge remain firmly established across the region.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Based on the evening upper air sounding, dry air in the lower levels continues to control the sensible weather. Mostly clear skies will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid 60s in most places, with upper 50s in northeast portions of the forecast area. The latest guidance was slightly warmer, but with no air mass changes we are able to stick with a more persistence forecast with overnight lows similar to last night. Though a light breeze will still persist in many areas, with clear skies abounding and a dry atmosphere, lows dipping into the upper 50s are again not out of the question for the cooler spots in the NE of the CWA.
1009 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020 The threat for severe storms has waned however showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected across the entire forecast overnight as a cold front limps through.
349 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Unseasonably cool conditions are expected this weekend as an upper trough digs into the region.
248 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Northeast winds will bring cooler temperatures to central and southeast Illinois today.
An upper trough will be moving north into the region today with isolated embedded storms possible mainly across the northeast mountains.
414 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 The combination of scattered high clouds and intermittent mixing wind is producing less than ideal radiational cooling this morning resulting in a nearly 10 degree variation in temperatures across the region from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Little change in the apparent of the last couple of days with deep ridging extending across much of the central U. As was mentioned in the previous forecast, a somewhat shallow plume of mid level moisture wrapping around the southern periphery of the ridge is expected to result in more low level clouds and even a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across south central Louisiana.
High pressure will be centered across the Tennessee Valley region, promoting another sunny and mostly clear day.
Upper air analysis showed the main trough over northeast CONUS with an embedded short wave over northern Indiana and another north of Lake Superior. A broad ridge axis was from Texas to North Dakota creating a northwest flow over Mississippi Valley. Upper level trough will shift east today.
Closed upper low in central California that wrapped warm, moist unstable air into the region yesterday is opening and moving into the great basin this morning. The broad upper level trough over the west coast continues to slowly shift east today, with showers continuing with the region in the left exit region of a +100 KT jet today. The upper trough continues to slowly migrate east Sunday, and with an upper ridge gradually building behind the exiting trough showers slowly taper off through the day Sunday.
630 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 VFR conditions to persist across area terminals as surface and upper-level ridge continue across the region. /Today through Sunday/ Surface and upper-level ridge to continue to prevail through the short term period. Upper-ridge will remain centered across Texas into Oklahoma and Arkansas contributing to mostly clear skies areawide. However, a weakness in the ridge may allow for a few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of southwest and south-central Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure to maintain light and variable winds during the overnight hours with northeast winds up to 10 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures to average in the lower 90s today and Sunday with overnight lows in the upper 60s.
Stratocumulus field detected by satellite is noted just offshore the Lower Texas coast and is likely to move inland this morning with some brief SCT-BKN VFR conditions and a very slight chance of morning shower. A weakness on the east side of the dominate ridge over West Texas slides south along the Mid/Lower TX coast and may combine with limited 700mb moisture to trigger the showers. Sea breeze, if develops, could be the boundary allowing for a few of these weak showers to spread across the Lower RGV. The eastern side of the 500mb ridge builds back over the coast tonight and Sunday maintaining the pleasant weather for the remainder of the weekend. Overnight lows fall back into the 60s with exception to the low to mid 70s over Padre Island and highs recovering back to the lower to mid 90s Sunday.
Mid morning surface analysis had a >1020mb southwest-northeast oriented ridge just to our northwest that was resulting in a light north to northeast wind this morning. One minor difference will be the influence of a weak upper level trough that could help perturb the low level flow along the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, expect high temperatures today to be slightly warmer than yesterday with lows tonight several degrees below normal under mostly clear skies. Our forecast area will be on the eastern periphery of a mid/upper level ridge and that will keep deep layer dry air across our region.
416 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper level ridge is centered over the High Plains region today, aiding in the warm dry conditions. Another hot day will be in store for Sunday as the upper level ridge slowly moves eastward.
Amplified upper ridging will transition over our CWA today through through Sunday afternoon, predominantly favoring dry conditions and gradual warming.
/issued 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to dominate across the Southern and Central Plains today.
The NAM/GFS MOS guidance and model certainty have trended cooler with highs on Sunday.
353 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper ridge axis is centered across the northern Plains. Southwest flow aloft has set up across the northern to central Rockies, ahead of a trough crossing the West Coast into the Great Basin.
340 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of rain showers north of I-80. Dry and warmer weather Sunday on through the week. The back end of the upper trough that brought locally heavy showers and thunderstorms yesterday is currently over NorCal, with the main vort max over western Nevada. Drier and warmer weather returns on Sunday as the upper low exits to the east and high pressure ridging builds in from the west. Eastern ridging tries to build in, but troughing to the north will keep the pattern relatively flat, with near normal highs.
/issued 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ The combination of scattered high clouds and intermittent mixing wind is producing less than ideal radiational cooling this morning resulting in a nearly 10 degree variation in temperatures across the region from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Little change in the apparent of the last couple of days with deep ridging extending across much of the central U. As was mentioned in the previous forecast, a somewhat shallow plume of mid level moisture wrapping around the southern periphery of the ridge is expected to result in more low level clouds and even a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across south central Louisiana.
A very favorable setup is in place as the southern end of a trough approaches the region today. The maximum winds aloft associated with this trough will move into northern Arizona this afternoon, coinciding with peak daytime heating and vertical mixing.
Dry and mostly clear conditions will continue today across South- Central Texas on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge.
Water vapor satellite this morning shows an upper level low over western Ontario that will drop down into the mean long wave trough over the Great Lakes today. While the low will pass off to the east of the area, the associated short wave trough will pass across Wisconsin. The threat for the showers should end during the early evening as the forcing moves pass with the upper level low and short wave trough moving off over the eastern Great Lakes. On the large scale, mid to upper level ridging will overspread the area on Sunday and remain in place through mid-week as an upper low spins across the southeast US and persistent high pressure remains anchored over the Northeast.
506 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
623 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper level ridge is centered over the High Plains region today, aiding in the warm dry conditions. Another hot day will be in store for Sunday as the upper level ridge slowly moves eastward.
These clouds are associated with a sfc cold front and located in the exit region of an 80 kt upper jet. A closed upper low will settle into the Ohio River Valley region on Sunday, mainly widely scattered showers to the area.
Upper ridge sits right over the Dakotas today as the Pacific upper trough advects its way eastward. By Sunday, the trough shifts eastward into our region. The region will be between high pressure to the east and low pressure over western South Dakota Sunday evening.
The upper level ridge will remain in place with a dry air mass which will lead to continued VFR conditions. An upper level ridge will remain over the region along with a dry air mass. The upper level ridge will move slightly east during the forecast period with the ridge access extending into South Texas.
535 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper ridge axis is centered across the northern Plains. Southwest flow aloft has set up across the northern to central Rockies, ahead of a trough crossing the West Coast into the Great Basin.
The HRRR and RAP seem to be picking up on this and increase forcing/moisture around 700 mb as the front moves further south and the pre-frontal trough axis moves closer to northern Alabama. Highs in the lower to mid 80s look reasonable in the areas affected by more cloud cover later today.
736 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
Cooler today with upper 60s for highs across northern NV, and 70s across central NV.
312 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2020 A trough of low pressure will bring cooler weather through the weekend. The trough system that brought breezy to gusty winds and periods of blowing dust to many parts of the area yesterday will continue to move eastward today and with this progression the winds for the San Joaquin Valley will trend downward but remain breezy. With synoptic heights still depressed due to the troughs close proximity high temperatures will remain about 10-12 degrees below normal levels for this time of the year today.
1007 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Unseasonably cool conditions are expected this weekend as an upper trough digs into the region.
The mid level trough will deepen today and tomorrow and as it does it will continue to stir up a few storms to our north and northwest. Sunday will be similar, but with a better chance of seeing showers and storms as a cold front sweeps down from our north. In addition to precip ahead of the front, we could see scattered showers and storms develop on the Cumberland Plateau in the afternoon as the upper low pushes south toward eastern Kentucky and the Carolinas. Temperatures and dewpoints will remain tolerable this weekend with highs in the low 80s on the Plateau today and mid 80s elsewhere, then slightly cooler temperatures Sunday as the front moves through the area.
One minor difference will be the influence of a weak upper level trough that could help perturb the low level flow along the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, expect high temperatures today to be slightly warmer than yesterday with lows tonight several degrees below normal under mostly clear skies. Our forecast area will be on the eastern periphery of a mid/upper level ridge and that will keep deep layer dry air across our region.
As a trough digs into the Great Basin immediately west and northwest of our area, we might even see a quasi dry-line like feature set up around western Cochise county just east of Tucson. The trough spreading through north of our area will dry things just a little Sunday for lower storm chances.
A few upper impulses will round the trough base in the afternoon as well, and a couple may be accompanied by enough moisture that some showers may be able to form in the high terrain. Max temps today will be close to or just below climo with upper troughing over the eastern CONUS.
/issued 234 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020/ Hot and dry will again be the motif this Saturday as upper level ridging amplifies over the central CONUS. In what sounds like a broken record, upper level high pressure will remain centered over the south central CONUS through the forecast period. The strength of the ridge continues to favor near to just above normal temperatures with no real sign of anything more extreme.
Weak DPVA with these waves may contribute to isolated to scattered showers forming over the high mountains through evening.
530 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Northeast winds will bring cooler temperatures to central and southeast Illinois today. Latest surface analysis placed a cold front near a Rushville to Paris line. Northeast winds to provide low humidity and cooler temps than the past few days with highs ranging from the upper 70s northeast of I-74 to the mid 80s over the far southeast CWA.
With mostly cloudy skies and numerous showers today, highs will only be in the low- mid 80s today.
A stout upper level ridge will persist over the central conus over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will continue over the ARKLATEX region, with a stalled front over northwestern Florida.
The cold front and trough will provide lift, which will be enough for thunderstorms and at least a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon, so the forecast has been trended toward higher chances for thunderstorms. Latest models guidance show the coldest air arriving during Sunday afternoon so this may limit some of the snow accumulation potential, either way, snow can be planned for in the high terrain.
925 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 The current versions of the high-resolution models (and in fact most synoptic models) suggest that dewpoints out west need to be reduced a couple of more degrees, which of course brings down the forecast relative humidity this afternoon. Right now, our current forecast wind speeds are on the high end of the guidance envelope, which seems reasonable given the expected mixing and the forecast deepening cyclone over eastern Colorado. Fire weather will be critical through the day today in the northwest with the low humidity and gusty winds.
Today Through Sunday Night Should be another fairly nice June day across the area today, as an upper ridge remains centered over far west Texas and Mexico, and surface ridging displaced to the west of Arkansas keeps winds weak and predominantly northeasterly. Later today, a disturbance will move around the periphery of the upper ridge, with isolated/ widely scattered showers and storms possible, primarily over the north and northwest half.
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Clear skies across the forecast area and 12Z upper-air analysis showing the center of the ridge over the region point towards continued quiet and dry weather across the region. Center of the ridge is also forecast to shift a bit further east but heights/thicknesses will remain fairly unchanged compared to today so we should be at or a degree or two cooler tomorrow afternoon compared to today. An upper ridge will dominate over the region through most of the period which will keep things hot and dry at least into mid week.
The mid to upper level ridge axis will remain from the central and southern plains into northern Mexico through the period.
322 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 The upper level ridge will continue to slide eastward and break down through this afternoon.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds and temps dropping to the lower 70s except along the immediate Treasure Coast where lows will only drop to the mid 70s. An upper trough over eastern Great Lakes will continue to dig southward and develop a cut-off low over OH. Slight ridging will build along the southeast coastal waters of the U. With it, higher moisture will fill back in over the area so expect higher rain chances of 50-60 percent with the higher rain chances over the interior in the afternoon.