Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
140 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021 A front pressing through will be well south of the area by tonight, and in its wake northerly winds are bringing in drier and marginally cooler air. Some patchy fog was reported this morning and with cooler and drier air weakly advecting atop warm, wet ground, some additional patchy shallow fog seems likely. With the lower humidity, the apparent temperatures will be warm, but certainly below the seasonal average topping out in the upper 80s F and lower 90s F. Compared to last week's extreme heat, relatively cooler and more comfortable weather will persist into the end of the work week.
2) Plenty of clouds and scattered/broken areas of showers and afternoon storms will keep temperatures cooler. Discussion: An upper trough across the Ohio/Tennessee valleys will remain today with a jet streak over the southern Appalachian producing upper divergence. The upper dynamics and surface convergence along the trough will produce scattered convection throughout the day.
For the Rogue and Illinois Valley areas, smoke is also coming in from the Skyline Ridge Complex along the Umpqua Divide.
Much cooler weather continues as of late, with upper trough over the region.
317 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021 Presently, the region sits between a strong ridge over the west CONUS and upper level low pressure over the east CONUS resulting in the area being in northwesterly flow aloft. Lows tonight will be in the 60s with high temperatures for Wednesday a skosh cooler than today in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Low Wednesday night will also be a few degrees cooler with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The rebounding ridge and sunshine will allow temps to rebound back into the 90s Wednesday.
Much cooler weather continues as of late, with upper trough over the region. The short term period continues with upper level troughing in place over the eastern US with the trough axis and perhaps briefly a closed H500 isobar in the vicinity of the southern Ohio Wednesday morning. Easterly flow into the higher terrain coupled with at least some cloud cover will limit surface moisture and surface based destabilization during the afternoon hours Wednesday.
The majority of the area won't see any precipitation, but everyone will at least see an increase in cloud cover and some ever so slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s.
213 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021 We are in the midst of a pretty nice afternoon with 1:30 PM temperatures mostly in the low 80s and sunny skies. A disturbance noted on mid-level water vapor imagery over central Colorado as of 1:30 PM will continue to rotate around the periphery of an upper high currently centered over southern Nevada. This disturbance will move south over the higher terrain of New Mexico late this afternoon, supporting the development of showers and thunderstorms there. GKendrick A somewhat sinusoidal wave pattern should exist across the CONUS Tuesday evening as high pressure continues to remain entrenched across the desert southwest and troughing persists across the Great Lakes into the southeastern states.
High pressure centered over Las Vegas, NV will remain stationary through Wednesday. A short wave trough though is on the east side of the high, drifting slowly south to southeast. This trough will destabilize the atmosphere further over NM and combine with existing moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms with torrential rain. The upper low will slowly move out of NM Wednesday as high pressure builds in behind it.
Northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Plains with ridging over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, large area of high pressure extends from the eastern Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley and into Eastern KS/Eastern NE.
Cool again on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid-80s areawide along with light easterly winds and partly cloudy skies.
Broad long-wave upper level troughing persists over the eastern CONUS with upper level ridging over the western CONUS through Wednesday.
Low-level convergence around this boundary will continue to provide lift for additional thunderstorm development across the Lower Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon and evening as it lifts northward. This will combine with dew points in the lower to middle 70s resulting in peak heat indices between 105-110 degrees during the afternoon hours, along with borderline Heat Advisory conditions in both Starr and Zapata Counties today and Wednesday afternoon.
Afternoon highs are in the low 80s to upper 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s. Expect temperatures to drop to the low 60s tonight with light winds.
120 PM MST Tue Aug 3 2021 Dangerously hot temperatures are forecast through tomorrow for Tucson and the lower deserts west and north of Tucson.
338 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 Expect mainly dry weather today as high pressure moves east across the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday as humidity increases near a trough of low pressure.
Otherwise warmer and relatively dry conditions will persist.
A weak ridge remains in place over the Atlantic, with the axis extending across South Florida. Thereafter, there is some indication that the environment will once again moisten up, as the low-level flow shifts to the east to southeast.
JKL Narrow band of Monsoonal moisture will move slowly through central and eastern portions of southern Montana today through tonight, pushed along by a slow moving upper trof.
Mid to upper level troughing extends south through the Ohio River Valley and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico pushing the upper ridge over southern Florida.
121 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 Dry and seasonable over the next couple of days, with warmer and more humid weather developing this weekend.
149 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 Expect mainly dry weather today as high pressure moves east across the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday as humidity increases near a trough of low pressure.
The low level drying that has taken place will increase the threat for gusty winds from storms that develop later today.
And aloft, a western NOAM H5 ridge has leaned well into the Sask/Man border area bring a near northerly flow aloft, and layered mid-level smoke.
Despite diurnal cu development and light northeast to east winds on Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will continue a very gradual warm up and be about 1 to 3 degrees warmer than today. Byrd Pattern change in store for the extended as a majority of the deterministic and ensemble models have the upper level trough shift eastward and upper level ridging builds in.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to form over the higher terrain of New Mexico and move towards the NM/TX state line late this afternoon into tonight. /issued 132 AM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ An upper level ridge will remain centered over Las Vegas today with a plume of monsoon moisture wrapping around the eastern side of the ridge. A weak short wave rotating around the ridge will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms off the higher terrain of central and eastern New Mexico. The steady increase in geopotential heights heading into this weekend will result in temperatures rising into the middle-upper 90s area-wide, to perhaps the triple-digits across the low Rolling Plains.
Northerly flow continues to the west of a broad trough over the eastern CONUS. Winds will shift to the south ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface boundary, picking up to around 15 mph across north-central Kansas during the afternoon.
1121 AM MDT Tue Aug 3 2021 The upper ridge over the western CONUS is expected to remain for much of this week, but begins to break down a bit by Tuesday as the upper trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. With the overall pattern not changing too much over the week, western CONUS ridging continues to keep our temperatures warm and the ground mostly dry, with highs in the 90s all week long through the most of the forecast area, and mid 80s over the black hills.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Upper-level ridge to continue to build south across the ArkLaTex through the short term period allowing for mostly clear skies from tonight through Wednesday night.
This activity was occuring on the southern periphery of a weak s/wv trough progressing southeast through the lower Missouri River Valley, aided by terrain and deeper moisture profile.
Temperatures warmed into the lower 80s across the area today and have since hovered in the upper 70s to lower 80s under passing fair weather cumulus. Similar conditions can be expected tomorrow, perhaps a tad warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Petr 225 PM CDT The high pressure will move southeast of the area by the start of the forecast period, with return flow starting to pump warm, moist air into our region.
Heat island areas could be a degree warmer due to the concrete and asphalt.
Dry conditions will continue tonight and most of the day Wednesday as an upper-level ridge continues across the High Plains states. This ridge is progged to break down as we head into the day Wednesday, which will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as an area of low pressure approaches the region late Wednesday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday evening over north-central Minnesota as the aforementioned low pressure system builds into the region. An attendant mid-level trough will help provide large-scale forcing for this convection.
Any cloud cover will be limited to afternoon cumulus, but coverage will be sparse at best due to increasing dry air intrusion behind the cold front. /Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Upper-level ridge to continue to build south across the ArkLaTex through the short term period allowing for mostly clear skies from tonight through Wednesday night.
A cooler, wetter pattern is expected for this weekend. However, before getting hopes too high for additional rainfall, the lower levels of the atmosphere will be very dry tomorrow, and any precipitation from showers and thunderstorms will be on the low side, and most showers and thunderstorms will likely produce more wind than rain.
Will add slight chance west of Devils Lake as dewpoints remain in the low 60s. And aloft, a western NOAM H5 ridge has leaned well into the Sask/Man border area bring a near northerly flow aloft, and layered mid-level smoke.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Evening/ A mid level ridge centered just west of the area will keep light north flow aloft in place overnight. Slightly warmer conditions are expected on Wednesday, as surface winds turn to a more easterly direction.
However, atmosphere across the lower and middle Keys is much drier than further north with a PWAT of only 1. Temperatures remain quite warm at this hour and range from the mid 80s to around 90, but lows in the low to mid 80s are still on track. Lows could be a tad cooler across the far upper Keys if current shower and thunderstorm activity continues moving southward into that area.
/DC/ A front pressing through will be well south of the area by tonight, and in its wake northerly winds are bringing in drier and marginally cooler air. Some patchy fog was reported this morning and with cooler and drier air weakly advecting atop warm, wet ground, some additional patchy shallow fog seems likely. With the lower humidity, the apparent temperatures will be warm, but certainly below the seasonal average topping out in the upper 80s F and lower 90s F. Compared to last week's extreme heat, relatively cooler and more comfortable weather will persist into the end of the work week.
/Issued 327 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ Mississippi Valley Upper trough slowly but steadily de-amplifies and lifts northeast through the short-term forecast period. Region remains in line to see some influence from short waves moving through the flow ahead of the trough. Moisture somewhat limited as the original frontal boundary associated with this trough remains suppressed into south Georgia by surface ridging down the east side of the Appalachians.
Presently, the region sits between a strong ridge over the west CONUS and upper level low pressure over the east CONUS resulting in the area being in northwesterly flow aloft. Lows tonight will be in the 60s with high temperatures for Wednesday a skosh cooler than today in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Low Wednesday night will also be a few degrees cooler with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
719 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 Expect mainly dry weather today as high pressure moves east across the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday as humidity increases near a trough of low pressure.
A large area of high pressure remains in place from the NE states SW into the Midwest region. Current temps mainly in the upper 60s/lower 70s should also fall more into the lower/mid 60s overnight under partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny sky and highs in the lower to middle 80s.
The cold frontal boundary that has slowly been working through the region today will eventually mostly stall near the Gulf coast overnight.
Surface dewpoints prevailed in the lower to mid 60s. Afternoon highs are in the low 80s to upper 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s. Expect temperatures to drop to the low 60s tonight with light winds.
729 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 A plume of deep tropical moisture will remain along and just east of the Carolina and Mid Atlantic Coast through the rest of this week, while an upper level trough slides slowly east across the Commonwealth and weakens.
Cool again on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid-80s area-wide along with light easterly winds and partly cloudy skies.
High pressure will continue to remain over the Great Lakes region today.
1122 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021 Fair weather and below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Highs should reach the lower 80s each day, with lows upper 50s to around 60.
/issued 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday) A deep longwave trough currently encompasses the eastern half of the country with the apex just east of the CWA. A remnant frontal boundary associated with the trough exists over the local area, although its just about indiscernible at this point. That level of moisture combined with little inhibition due to trough in place has set the stage for what we're currently seeing across the local area. The base of the trough will dig a little farther south and east tonight through Wednesday.
Upper ridging will make it difficult to get any convection through tonight, though it wouldn't be impossible for a shower or storm to form along the Lake Michigan lake breeze late this afternoon. A weak upper trough and surface front will approach the area Thursday.
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Early morning satellite imagery shows increased cloud coverage over central SD, slowly moving eastwards under the influence of the ridge aloft. At the surface, a high pressure is still sitting off to our southeast, and due to the approaching wave to the west the surface pressure gradient will increase this morning leading to wind gusts up to 25 mph. Aloft, smoke looks to remain moderate/heavy, so have kept cloud coverage on the higher end to account for that.
305 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Temperatures below seasonal averages once again are expected today, along with hazy conditions with the high amplitude northerly flow upper pattern remaining in place. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in the higher terrain is not out of the question today, however coverage will likely remain low enough to keep mention out of the zones.
337 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A plume of deep tropical moisture will remain along and just east of the Carolina and Mid Atlantic Coast through the rest of this week, while an upper level trough slides slowly east across the Commonwealth and weakens.
Can't totally rule out some localized heavy downpours given the higher PW's and slow storm movement. Precip should taper off for most inland areas later this morning, but still anticipate some sct activity across our sw zones today where the higher moisture levels will linger.
A large area of high pressure remains in place from the NE states SW into the Midwest region. Current temps mainly in the upper 60s/lower 70s should also fall more into the lower/mid 60s overnight under partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny sky and highs in the lower to middle 80s. The main upper trough shifts east of the region on Thursday.
Ridging will build into the area Wednesday for dry and warm weather. An upper trough will move towards the Pacific NW later Thursday and move over the area through the weekend for showers and much cooler temperatures.
Today Through Thursday Night The upper level high pressure continues over the desert southwest with an upper trough over the eastern U. A short wave trough will develop in the Plains Thursday and move through Arkansas Thursday night. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s and just a bit warmer Thursday as southern sections approach 90 degrees.
Heat island areas could be a degree warmer due to the concrete and asphalt. It looks like the influence from the current trough moves east on Thursday dropping pops back to slight for the plateau. Thursday will be a bit warmer.
Current conditions showing a leeside trough laying across western Nebraska this morning. Warmer and drier Thursday as upper ridge builds into the area from the west.
339 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Another cool morning across the mid state with current temps in the low to mid 60s. Upper trough continues to dig southward with slow eastward progression today, which will allow for precip chances in the east especially on the Plateau. Models still want to sneak some isolated showers and storms on the Plateau Thursday afternoon, but as the trough moves out, the story will be rising temps.
Afternoon temperatures were in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The typical cool spots will see lows in the mid-upper 50s with the urban corridors remaining in the lower 60s. Inverted trough axis across eastern KY may result in some scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the day will top out again in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Wednesday night, upper flow becomes more progressive and moves a mid- level trough, that brought earlier rain showers to the CWA, off to the east. This gives way to a mid-level ridge making for a sunny Thursday with temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. On Thursday night, the next mid-level trough will be nearing the Ozarks.
Speaking of, an UL trof will skirt across the entire FA this evening. The upper level ridge will be in place across the greater region.
Northerly flow continues to the west of a broad trough over the eastern CONUS. Winds will shift to the south ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface boundary, picking up to around 15 mph across north-central Kansas during the afternoon. As this trough moves through the forecast area late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, isentropic ascent should lead to a few scattered showers moving east across northern portions of the area.
332 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A weak trough of low pressure may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms today.
Cooler low temperatures will continue as well, with lows in the upper 50s to around 60.
An upper ridge will then build into the region tonight and remain in place through tomorrow, which will keep the area quiet and free from active weather.
The base of an upper trof over the eastern United States was located over Alabama. The trof will dig southward today and provide just enough lift for limited convection this afternoon and into early this evening across east Alabama. For Thursday, an inverted low level trough will develop near a Mobile to Gadsden line. This trof will help usher in deeper moisture from the east.
For tomorrow afternoon, mid-level ridging builds in from the west and as a result temperatures will be slightly higher than today by a degree or two. Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper-level trough situated across most of the eastern half of the country will break down and give way to an active zonal flow pattern aloft.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) This morning the upper ridge will be centered over Srn NV with a trough over Ern Co down into Nrn NM. This trough will push east Wednesday and Thursday as another trough coming off the Pacific flattens the top of the ridge. expect today to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday in the mid to upper 80s.
Currently, a mean upper level trough is analyzed over the eastern Conus. From there, the broad low is either maintained over the northwestern Gulf (GFS, ECMWF, and HREF), or organizes into a more significant closed low and heads towards the western Florida Panhandle (NAM, RAP, SREF).
402 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 As upper trough axis stays west of the area today, some PVA or weak impulses traversing the flow could aid convective triggering. Trough energy ejects NE of the area for Thursday leaving mainly zonal flow aloft.
307 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 An upper trough from the eastern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast will slowly move overhead today, while at the surface a broad inverted trough will line up along the western slope of the Appalachians. DCAPE is progged to be less than 1000 J/kg with weak-moderate mid-level lapse rates, lack of storm organization, and the upper trough will be positively tilted and weakening slightly. Convection will dissipate this evening with loss of daytime heating and the axis of the upper trough moving off to the east.
1241 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Northwest flow aloft continues over Arkansas this morning as a result of high pressure to the west and an upper trough to the east. N/NErly winds, via high pressure to the north, have ushered drier and cooler air into the region with readings in the 80s this afternoon. Temperatures should fall into the lower to middle 60s overnight.
252 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A weak upper level short wave trough over northeastern New Mexico is helping sustain thunderstorms on the Sacramentos as well as a weaker batch of showers in east-central New Mexico. This trough will move slowly eastward through the day with the potential for the eastern New Mexico showers to make their way into the northwestern counties later this morning. The weakness aloft should remain over the Panhandle to South Plains early evening with the potential for some isolated weak shower or thunderstorm activity developing in the vicinity of the trough, but concerns similar to those above should still be present.
Surface pressure gradient on Wednesday will tighten in advance of an approaching trough, allowing southerly winds to increase somewhat with some afternoon gusts up to 25 mph. perhaps a degree or two warmer, especially west of the I-29 corridor. Clearing skies and light westerly winds will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s with some areas along and west of the James River Valley reaching the lower 90s.
Deterministic runs predict a upper pattern characterized by a transition from a weak ridge over the CWA today to a developing/weak upper trough Thursday. Although the front may dissipate Thursday, the developing upper trough should contribute to aditional scattered convection Thursday.
Cool again on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid-80s area-wide along with light easterly winds and partly cloudy skies. Mild weather continues on Thursday, with highs in the low to mid-80s across the Ozarks.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 66 87 69 86 / 40 20 20 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 87 68 87 / 40 20 20 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 64 86 67 87 / 40 20 20 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 61 84 63 87 / 30 20 20 0 20.
ridge with that feature moving through the mid MO Valley on Wednesday night and Thursday. Ahead of the mid-level disturbance, a lee trough in place over the High Plains will advance east/southeast and eventually move through our area on Thursday. Tomorrow, increasing low-level warm advection ahead of the approaching mid-level disturbance will yield high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.