Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
259 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. THOUGH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHARPED THE GRADIENT SOME THIS EVENING. FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF LE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROF/FRONT. THE 1030MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT OUT OF CANADA BUT IT WILL RUN ABOUT 3-8F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MAXES ON SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXPANDS TO COVER ABOUT 3/4S OF THE CONUS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN AB INTO WESTERN NE. A BROAD BUT SLOWLY AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PICKS UP WITH GROWING THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE CWA. LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL GIVEN THE DRY AIR EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERLY SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN WARMER READINGS THAN SURROUNDING PLAINS.
309 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 A MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PUSHES EAST LATE.
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST.
1048 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 Sunny skies are the rule across central Illinois today, courtesy of high pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast. High pressure will continue to slide toward the area today, but pressure gradient remains tight with deep low pressure area still in southeastern Canada this morning. High pressure and clear skies setting up for efficient cooling tonight and temps bottom out in the upper 20s/near 30.
153 PM MST FRI NOV 13 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN-MOST ZONES TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN IDAHO ZONES RESULTING IN WARMING.
1141 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 Sunny skies are the rule across central Illinois today, courtesy of high pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast. High pressure will continue to slide toward the area today, but pressure gradient remains tight with deep low pressure area still in southeastern Canada this morning. High pressure and clear skies setting up for efficient cooling tonight and temps bottom out in the upper 20s/near 30.
OTHERWISE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY START TO MODIFY OWING TO JUST HOW FAST WINDS ACQUIRE ONSHORE COMPONENT. RANGING FROM MID 50S LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS A BIT AND WINDS VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST. NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS MID 70S LAKE/VOLUSIA TO AROUND 80 OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST.
208 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CAA HAS BROUGHT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. AND FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
318 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE BUILDING RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH WORKS EASTWARD.
351 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS NORTHEAST CONUS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEAK RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STRONG RIDGES AT 250HPA AND 500HPA AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST IS ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE.
140 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HOT SPRINGS AR. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CORRECT IN FORECASTING A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
210 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.
1259 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY.
THE CLEARING TREND IS UNDERWAY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OCCURRING AHEAD OF DAKOTAS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT. A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST 12Z SUN WHICH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MON. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SPLITS INTO A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE TX/NM BORDER AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z WED AND THIS PUSHES UP A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. EXPECT GALES TODAY AS COLD AIR SURGES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL E AND A RIDGE W. THE RIDGE MOVES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE WINDS BELOW 25 KTS. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE ROCKIES.
WE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST WHICH SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
1141 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
358 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
316 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD FRONT IS KEEPING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM LAKE ONTARIO PRIMARILY NORTH OF FA. LATE TODAY AS THE TROF DROPS INTO THE LAKE BASIN POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. BUT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES HAS STILL DROPPED TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING THIS MORNING. AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
355 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
ITS BEEN A CLEAR & CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE READINGS HAD SETTLED TO AROUND 30F IN MOST AREAS AT 2 AM. TODAY-SAT NIGHT: THERE'LL BE A WARMING TREND FOR ALL AREAS AS A MODERATE ZONAL MID- UPPER REGIME SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TOWARD A SWLY VARIANT ON SAT AS A MID-UPPER TROF STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW SAT EVENING. WITH THE LOWER-DECK TROFFING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GREATLY INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT WITH STRATUS SPREADING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS LATE SAT NIGHT.
BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LVLS. HAVE TRENDED TODAYS HIGHS TOWARD A LOWER/COOLER GFS MOS SOLUTION. MOISTENING AND WARMING SOUTHERLIES RETURN FOR THE NEW WORK-WEEK AS COOL LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS.
1249 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD FRONT IS KEEPING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM LAKE ONTARIO PRIMARILY NORTH OF FA. LATE TODAY AS THE TROF DROPS INTO THE LAKE BASIN POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA.
150 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
253 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 20z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge axis extending from Minnesota southward to the Gulf of Mexico, while deep low pressure continues to retreat into eastern Quebec. With high pressure expected to drift overhead tonight, winds will become light/variable after midnight leading to excellent radiational cooling conditions.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER WASHINGTON BASIN.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH REINFORCING COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING HOWEVER THE LOWER AIR COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO DEVELOP LOW STRATOCUMULUS THIS EARLY AND WE WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WE CAN MOISTEN IT UP ENOUGH.
320 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SFC RIDGING CENTERED OVER CNTRL OK THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRE-TROUGH AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS DOWN THE ATMOS COLUMN. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
155 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 Upper ridge centered over East TX this morning will slowly build west becoming centered over NM and extending northward up across the Rockies by midweek. The ridge looks to remain entrenched over the west as upper troughs coming off the coast just flatten it a little instead of displacing it.
257 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY WILL REORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AN OLD COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS STORMS. THE ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE GA TODAY. WHICH IS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE CWFA ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST WI AND EAST CENTRAL MN IS INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES VERSUS YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE OVER THE NEW FEW DAYS. AND DRIVE AN INCREASED MARINE PRESENCE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF OSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH GETS BEATEN BACK SLIGHTLY AS TROUGHING GRADUALLY ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG MID LVL RIDGING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ERN ROCKIES THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK. PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL RESULT THAT WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER S FL AND THE FL STRAITS. PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THRU MIDWEEK.
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUD COVER AROUND MUCH LONGER THAN FORECASTED, BUT AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IS WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS, WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. EXPECT THAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 100S THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST CAUSING NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME SPECKS OF RADAR RETURNS ARE OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH AS AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS THE BOUNDARY BACK WITH IT AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR OUR AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS UPPER RIDGING REALLY INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FURTHER WEST. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MONDAY.
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA ON MON AND TUE WITH MONSOON MSTR FLOW STREAMING OVR THE AREA. THU THRU SAT THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CHANCES CONTINUING. SUN THE UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE FLATTENED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
151 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL SO FAR THIS AFTN WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL NOSE A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING EASTWARD.
Theta-e ridge axis extends from the Presidio Valley up thru SE NM --about where it was yesterday, and the focus for convection this afternoon/overnight. /issued 155 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ Upper ridge centered over East TX this morning will slowly build west becoming centered over NM and extending northward up across the Rockies by midweek. The ridge looks to remain entrenched over the west as upper troughs coming off the coast just flatten it a little instead of displacing it.
346 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ON INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP WEST OF MOBRIDGE ALREADY. HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF KPIR AND ALONG I90 WHERE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINK WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO RESULT IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS. BEFORE THE LOW/BOUNDARY SLIP SOUTH AND OUT OF THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDER SHOWERS FOR THESE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND ALSO THE PINE RIDGE FROM LUSK EASTWARD TO CHADRON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. SO MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.
339 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW WI TO CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND IT MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
110 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 RAIN WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND VEERS AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORMING A NW FLOW OVER THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW SENDING A COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
231 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY WORD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS GRIP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE LOW/MID 60S WEST OF I-69C AND LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF HWY 77. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
132 PM PDT SUN AUG 9 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOUTH FLOW THEN RESUMES MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS OFF THE WEST COAST.
THOSE IN THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WHO WERE HOPING FOR SOAKING RAINS MIGHT BE DISAPPOINTED AS THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THERE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HEART OF THE U. OR THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST. BUT THEN THE GFS/EC DROP A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS STAYS TO THE WEST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THAT WARMER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING.
LBX HAS THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX AT 109. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON MON AND TUE COMPARED TO TODAY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING DOES SHOW A DRY SLOT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, KEEPING WIND AS THE LARGEST THREAT. THE FREEZING LEVEL AT 16K FT, HAIL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY. WITH SLIGHT DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FROM ERN CONUS ULVL TROUGH.
619 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE DAY.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICT THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. REMNANTS OF A WEAK REGIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE UPPER KEYS. KEY WEST AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD-LINE HAS REACTIVATED AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
NEAR A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE THE SLOW WWD RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
257 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
WITH A DEEP(!) UPPER-DECK TROF DIGGING FROM QUEBEC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH WOULD SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NE & E OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD. A VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS IS ALIGNED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR 60 WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CDT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. 4 AM CDT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HEIGHT RIDGE HAD EXPANDED SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EXPAND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MIDSOUTH. DUE IN PART TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BEING SLOWER TO SLOWER TO BUILD EAST YESTERDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE TO TEXAS.
A LITTLE HOTTER TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGE SQUASHES THE REGION. POSSIBLY A DEGREE WARMER.
AT THE SURFACE A WK BNDRY WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO WHICH WILL ADVECT IN SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE WILL HELP TO TEMPER THE TEMPERATURES. IN SPITE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
1257 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 WITH A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA.
Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s, with patchy fog developing near sunrise.
549 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
314 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 MEDIAN TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE HIGH UPPER 90S AT THE MOMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EASE NORTHWESTWARD TOMORROW.