Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a result a few high clouds will continue to stream across the region but dry weather will continue along with cooler than normal temperatures through the period. Our normal lows run in the low to mid 50s. generally along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. Temperatures will top out this afternoon from the lower 60s north to the mid 60s south. /22/ Thursday through Wednesday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow with broad westerly zonal flow across the southern states as a longwave trough axis shifts northeast into New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
A weak upper- level low pressure trough will pass east this morning leading to even thinner high clouds and zonal westerly flow aloft.
1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Key Messages: 1) Freezing temperatures expected over far north Missouri and northeast Kansas tonight 2) Two rounds of light snow accumulation possible tonight and Thursday/Thursday Night. Additionally, another unseasonably cool night is expected, and while overnight low temperatures will not fall as the previous few nights, freezing temperatures will likely occur north of the KC Metro, over northern MO. This will also sharpen a warm front near our southern CWA, with widespread precipitation expected during the day on Thursday. Dynamic cooling from frontogenetical banding and modest rates of precipitation, even in the absence of sub-freezing surface temperatures, may allow for localized areas of accumulating snow on the order of 1-2 inches, especially on insulated surfaces such as grass.
147 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week. As of 145 AM: A cold front was analyzed near the Fall Line of SC, moving slowly to the east. The cold front is timed to pass over the forecast area during the pre-dawn hours, reaching the coast by daybreak. Moderate confidence through the period that a stalled front offshore Wednesday will turn into a cold front and push to the southeast farther away from the area as high pressure builds from the northwest.
Descent ascent and moisture supply with a reinforcing cold front is sufficient to maintain likely PoPs of rain and snow showers with no impact given a warm boundary layer. Otherwise, cloud reduction and cold advection will likely result in sub-freezing temperature once again and a Freeze Warning will again be needed for lowland along and south of I 70. VFR should return late Wed night as high pressure begins to build in behind the exiting front.
/issued 152 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ A broad upper trough extended from a low in NE Canada down across the Great Lakes southwestward to CA. This trough will be reinforced by another one moving down across MT and WY Thursday.
Warmer temperatures continue inland on Wednesday, but temperatures should begin to cool in coastal areas. Cooler temperatures are expected in all areas from Thursday through the weekend.
1002 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Tonight should be the coldest night of the next 7 days with temperatures dipping into the low to middle 30s area wide. After a cold start, afternoon highs should climb into the low 60s. Morning lows will be cold again, but slightly warmer than tonight.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across the Florida Big Bend, as a weak cold front that has stalled across the region is expected to push south through the region by late morning and early afternoon.
Highs will climb above freezing by afternoon with the precipitation shifting east of the region. One more below freezing night will be in store tonight with overnight lows finally moderating some the rest of the week.
If these clouds continue to increase through the night, it will likely ruin the low temperature forecast of lower to mid teens across western North Dakota.
As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 60s with lows tonight ranging from the upper 20s across west central Kansas to around 40 degrees across south central Kansas.
This low will bring some isolated snow showers to the southwest this morning.
Given the entirety of the event taking place over 12 to 18 hours, as well as the spotty nature of the higher expected snowfall totals, will continue to hold off on issuing any headlines, but maintain wording of winter like conditions at times. Upper ridging will build across the region late in the week with drier weather and temperature recoveries expected.
Temperatures are still mainly on track from this afternoon's forecast so am still expecting areas within the freeze warning to be the only counties that see widespread sub-freezing temperatures, so no plans to increase the area of the warning for now. VFR conditions and light winds can be expected at all TAF sites as high pressure builds over the region.
Hourly temperatures were running a little cooler than forecast, and based on these observations and latest guidance, shaved a degree or two off of forecast lows WED morning.
While most of the Huntsville region is now mostly clear, a still-tight pressure gradient between the high building over the central/southern Plains and stationary front across the FL Panhandle/SE GA has kept winds from decoupling for all but a few sites around the area. Still, current trends support lows falling into the low/mid 30s. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer (mid to upper 30s). Generally zonal flow aloft will prevail on Thursday as some weak surface ridging helps to steer the mean low-level flow to a more ESE/SE direction.
Some mid and high level clouds will also begin to affect the terminal sites by Wednesday morning and continue through much of the day as high pressure is expected to dominate.
354 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week.
Wednesday night into Thursday, dry weather as high pressure returns. By Thursday night zonal flow returns at the upper-levels as the trough retreats into northeastern Canada.
/Today through Thursday/ Benign nwly flow aloft atop high pressure at the sfc will result in benign weather through the short term pd. However, sly sfc flow will begin to return Thursday in response to an approaching upper trof, and this will aid temps in warming back to near mid April averages for Thursday.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed one trough of low pressure stretched from central Lake Superior southwest through central WI. A second trough was located over western Lake Superior southwest through central MN. Look for min temperatures to range from 5 to 10 above zero north-central WI, to the lower 20s east-central WI. Northeast WI to remain under the influence of a broad upper trough parked over the northeast CONUS. Max temperatures to range from the lower to middle 30s north-central, to the upper 30s eastern WI.
Short wave energy will track southeast across the Great Lakes with the back edge of a surface cold front dropping into central Missouri. Middle and upper-level ascent will then increase tonight as a low pressure system develops across the high Plains. That front will begin to sharpen up and lift north as a warm front. We may see a few showers develop mainly near and north of the Highway 54 corridor closer to that front.
1154 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week. Moderate confidence through the period that a stalled front offshore Wednesday will turn into a cold front and push to the southeast farther away from the area as high pressure builds from the northwest.
VCTS is possible for northern TAF sites along I-4 corridor by 21Z as a cold front moves through.
144 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Anonymously deep/cold upper level trough will continue to bring cold, unsettled, and breezy conds to the region a couple more days. The best chance for snow showers will again be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the Black Hills (and SE) with isolated-scattered activity across other locations. Some light accums will be possible in the Hills, mainly on grassy sfcâs given highs in the lower 30s there.
1237 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure dominates. 15/00Z Forecast VFR conditions are expected through the period, as cold high pressure settles in. A broad upper trof will remain over the majority of the continental US during the period, as high pressure settles into the area at the surface.
The day will be a quiet one weather-wise as high pressure builds over the area with a broad trough over the eastern U.
/issued 1002 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Tonight should be the coldest night of the next 7 days with temperatures dipping into the low to middle 30s area wide. After a cold start, afternoon highs should climb into the low 60s. Morning lows will be cold again, but slightly warmer than tonight.
VFR conditions and light winds can be expected at all TAF sites as high pressure builds over the region. The day will be a quiet one weather-wise as high pressure builds over the area with a broad trough over the eastern U.
509 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week.
/issued 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ Cool and dry conditions will continue into tomorrow as a high pressure system builds into the region.
448 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Anonymously deep/cold upper level trough will continue to bring cold, unsettled, and breezy conds to the region a couple more days. The best chance for snow showers will again be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the Black Hills (and SE) with isolated-scattered activity across other locations. Some light accums will be possible in the Hills, mainly on grassy sfcâs given highs in the lower 30s there.
312 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Today will be warmer and dry under weak high pressure.
545 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A trough digging into and retrograding across the Intermountain West will keep the upper jet. As lobes of energy rotate through the trough each brings in cooler air the thermal gradient tightens and strengthens the jet core. Overnight low temperatures however should warm thanks to the infiltration of warmer air and overnight cloud cover.
651 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Calmer and warmer weather is expected today and tonight.
430 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Aviation Section Updated A cold front will continue to move southward through the region today.
Temperatures have risen above freezing across the warned area and therefore the Freeze Warning has been cancelled. Temperatures will settle at or slightly below freezing in parts of the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Below average temperatures continue for the region Wednesday, though the slow warming trend continues, with highs breaching into the low 40s today. That being said, it appears model consensus is for the highly amplified pattern in place to gradually de-amplify.
After subfreezing temperatures and some patchy fog this morning, we should heat into the upper 50s this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 30s again Thursday morning, but they should stay just above freezing in most places. Tonight will be the last near-freezing night for at least a week.
Temperatures range from below freezing across much of west Tennessee to the middle 30s across the rest of the area. In addition, freezing fog has started to develop along the Tennessee River in west Tennessee. Went ahead and issued a freezing fog advisory for the two rows of counties along the river. After sundown, temperatures are expected to plummet once again, but should remain above freezing across the area. There is some concern that freezing conditions may redevelop across portions of west Tennessee, but confidence remains too low at this time for any freeze products.
Thursday is expected to hold yet another chance for daytime flurries or sprinkles with the last of the unusually cold air aloft holding over the region during the daytime before the upper trough weakens and moves east. This weakening of the upper trough will promote gradual WAA Thursday with highs expected to reach into the mid 30s to low 40s.
734 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Scattered showers this morning, then clearing expected this afternoon behind a cold frontal passage.
1043 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week.
638 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week.
Looks like another cold night with high pressure pretty much overhead at dawn Thursday, providing nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies. High pressure is right over the region this hour, as evidenced by the long automated observing stations showing 3 knots or less of wind this hour.
1027 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Currently - A surface ridging extending westward across South Florida and the Keys is gradually retreating eastward as a trough slides eastward further into the Atlantic and across Florida. Mid level ridging stretches across our area and there is considerable dry air in place aloft. Short Term Update - As the ridge retreats, expect winds to slacken further and clock around to southwest then west by late in the afternoon.
High pressure is right over the region this hour, as evidenced by the long automated observing stations showing 3 knots or less of wind this hour.
The ridges in the west side north of the Umpqua Divide will see the best moisture, with drizzle likely as low stratus is dragged through the trees on the ridges. The precipitation from the low in the great basin should remain east of the forecast area today. The upper low offshore of the southern Oregon coast this morning moves south offshore of central California by Thursday morning.
412 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Cool and dry conditions will continue into tomorrow as a high pressure system builds into the region.
430 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A trough digging into and retrograding across the Intermountain West will keep the upper jet. As lobes of energy rotate through the trough each brings in cooler air the thermal gradient tightens and strengthens the jet core. Overnight low temperatures however should warm thanks to the infiltration of warmer air and overnight cloud cover.
As a result, the cold front will not create a clear cut, easy transition in precipitation for many locations.
(Today and tonight) Calmer and warmer weather is expected today and tonight.
Continued southeast to south breezes heading into the weekend will offer little relief from the heat and humidity (despite the best efforts of a late season cold front attempting to dive south down the Florida Peninsula tomorrow night). That being said, chances for measurable precipitation will remain meager at best with the subsidence ridge aloft persisting in the face of deep cyclonic flow across much of the eastern US. This could drive a cold front to near the Keys, but changes to sensible weather elements look to remain minimal as the ridge aloft flattens and ultimately fails to drop heights meaningfully. A weak western North Atlantic ridge axis will settle southward near the Keys today and tonight, resulting in mainly light and variable breezes through Thursday.
Deepening moisture overspreading the area as a cold front gradually works its way southward will bring increasing coverage of showers and storms beginning this afternoon, especially from Orlando to Titusville northward. Zonal mid level flow north of the Caribbean ridge strengthens over the next 24h as a broad trough over the central/ eastern CONUS deepens. A cold front moving through the area today will bring an increase in showers and storms this afternoon and into this evening with highest coverage MCO northward.
This warming trend continues Thu nite into Fri, with lows in the mid 40s early Fri before rebounding well into the lower/mid 70s later in the day. The latest model runs remain consistent with a weak upper trough axis/attendant low pressure system at the sfc moving ewd out of the mid Plains Fri/Fri nite, with the trailing frontal boundary moving thru the area Fri evening.
/issued 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ VFR conditions will prevail under nwly flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc throughout the 12Z TAF pd. /Today through Thursday/ Benign nwly flow aloft atop high pressure at the sfc will result in benign weather through the short term pd. However, sly sfc flow will begin to return Thursday in response to an approaching upper trof, and this will aid temps in warming back to near mid April averages for Thursday.
406 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A cold front will continue to move southward through the region today.
641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 VFR conditions will prevail under nwly flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc throughout the 12Z TAF pd. /Today through Thursday/ Benign nwly flow aloft atop high pressure at the sfc will result in benign weather through the short term pd. However, sly sfc flow will begin to return Thursday in response to an approaching upper trof, and this will aid temps in warming back to near mid April averages for Thursday.
305 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Chilly high pressure will build across the region through tonight.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern pacific will keep the Pacific Northwest under a northerly flow. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler today and the clear skies combined with light winds will allow temperatures to be colder tonight. Cold prone areas around the Lower Columbia Basin could see temperatures around freezing but do not see a widespread threat for a freeze overnight.
Low pressure at the surface was developing this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves south into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Areas of light rain will be developing farther north across central and west central Kansas by late afternoon and early evening with a changeover to light snow, and possibly some light freezing drizzle during the evening hours as the cold air becomes more entrenched across western Kansas. Snow accumulations are not expected to be all that much with potentially up to an inch or so along the Highway 96/I-70 corridor.
High pressure currently centered north of the area moving eastward. /issued 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ Cool and dry conditions will continue into tomorrow as a high pressure system builds into the region.
A cold front has sunk south of our Big Bend counties this afternoon with skies quickly clearing behind it. Broad high pressure continues to build in on Thursday with skies once again clearing by the afternoon.
Lows should drop into the lower to middle 20s, still below seasonal normals.
Lee- troughing in its place will result in a return to S-SWerly breezes and warmer temperatures. The southwest winds will increase tomorrow as low pressure deepens across the Okla Panhandle. However, as the pre-frontal trough advances across the Caprock in the afternoon, wind speeds may level-off or decrease somewhat as the pressure gradient relaxes. In response, a cold front will be driven through the South Plains Thursday evening/night.
However; overall snow accumulation should be inhibited by warmer sfc temperature, and the majority of accumulation is still expected to be confined to grassy surfaces. Otherwise, cloud reduction and cold advection will likely result in sub-freezing temperature once again and a Freeze Warning will remain in place for the lowland along and south of I-70.
At 1000 AM, a cold front was in place from roughly Danville to Shelbyville. Further southeast, echoes persist on radar, but not seeing much in the way of precip reports at area ASOS/AWOS sites, likely due to the large wedge of dry air in the low levels. with slightly warmer lower 50s south of I-70. Another cold and dry night will be on tap tonight as lows once again drop below freezing. This feature will round the base of the trough and approach Illinois from the west on Thursday.
A cold front continues to advance through the region, having now advanced south of I-90, as indicated by a wind shift and pressure rises on the surface observations. Temperatures have remained near, or just below freezing across the area, so many sections of roadway have remained wet despite the snow. A cold front will continue to move southward through the region today.
1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Anonymously deep/cold upper level trough will continue to bring cold, unsettled, and breezy conds to the region a couple more days. The best chance for snow showers will again be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the Black Hills (and SE) with isolated-scattered activity across other locations. Some light accums will be possible in the Hills, mainly on grassy sfcâs given highs in the lower 30s there.
Tonight into Thursday: The deeper trough across much of the Great Lakes region will begin to flatten through this time period. With troughing overhead, northwest flow will continue to provide relatively quiet weather and near to below temperatures across the western Great Lakes.
246 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure over the plains will continue to move east tonight, with southerly winds to increase ahead of the next frontal boundary.
Colder than normal temperatures will continue through the week with more sub-freezing lows again tonight.
This should relax quickly by early this evening as a ridge of high pressure over the ArkLaTex region shifts east. This ridge will quickly be followed by the cold front now over the lower OH valley dropping southeast. The ridge over the South and behind the front basically merge by early Thursday morning over the eastern and middle TN valley. Freezing temperatures are not anticipated tonight, but areas of frost are possible over southern TN and northeast AL where temps dip into the m30s.
A weak cold front will move south tonight, but with some frontolysis the baroclinic zone tends to wash out. This low will bring some isolated snow showers to the southwest this morning.
High pressure over Iowa and the Mississippi Valley will slide south tonight following the Mississippi River. This will help produce clear skies, light winds and over night temperatures in the lower 30s tonight for portions of south central Missouri. As the high shifts east of the region Thursday morning, a tightening surface pressure gradient will allow winds to increase and become gusty for Thursday.
A weak cold front that is undergoing frontolysis will move south tonight, and wash out as the baroclinic zone weakens. While the guidance is dry, there will be several fast moving cold fronts that could spread widely scattered showers through the region.
The snow that falls should quickly and fully melt by 10-11am thanks to temperatures warming above freezing and the strong mid April sun, with a nice clearing line noted on nighttime microphysics satellite RGB. Highs will again hold in the lower 40s -- well below mid April norms. Following this, we get a bit of a reprieve Wednesday night into at least midday Thursday the upper trough exits to the east and an area of high pressure will expand overhead. The cold air gets reinforced behind a subtle cold front Wednesday night.
112 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week.
344 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Broad troughing continues over much of the eastern U. from a persistent upper level low over eastern Canada. With a leeside low and approaching cold front with a tight pressure gradient, the southern Texas Panhandle may warm higher than what models are suggesting due to compressional heating.
Temperatures will be warming above freezing 1-3 hours with any lingering precipitaiton slowly transitioning to light rain showers. Below average temperatures continue for the region Wednesday, though the slow warming trend continues, with highs breaching into the low 40s today. That being said, it appears model consensus is for the highly amplified pattern in place to gradually de-amplify.
300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Rain and snow accompany a weak cold front moving through the area late this evening.
Tomorrow, onshore flow returns bringing an increase of low clouds, fog, and cooler weather.