Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall, the lows tonight should be in the zero to 10 below range, with a few areas along the Coteau and higher elevations of the southwest seeing lows a few degrees above zero. Currently, west-northwesterly flow aloft with a subtle mid level trough over the region. Mid-level WAA with 850mb temps near to above 0C but doubtful any of this warmer air will reach the surface. For the overnight low tonight I basically copied the low from this morning and weighted it with a blend of the CONSRAW/Superblend (2 of the models verifying well on average for MinT the past month). Upper level low ejecting through the Central Plains merges with a northern stream S/WV trough moving southeast out of Canada.
Cold front was pushing back to the south during the evening, as models predicted. By this evening we were already back in the cooler air at Nashville, and the 8 pm temperature was back down to 52. Look for overnight fog to pretty well dissipate by mid morning, but the low ceilings will remain.
306 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build back in across the region through tonight.
An upper ridge over the southeastern part of the country will favor above normal temperatures through midweek.
1112 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 a trough of low pressure over the Ohio valley will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. as high pressure centered over the Central Plains moves east.
1232 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Dry weather under high pressure is expected today.
Have had to make some changes to min temps as many sites were at or cooler than ongoing min temp fcst.
Temperatures on Sunday will be quite mild, especially in the Missouri Valley where readings near freezing will be possible.
As of 2 AM, the surface freezing line stretched from roughly Columbus Kansas to Lamar, then to Bolivar, Fort Leonard Wood, and on to Rolla. Along and north of this line, widespread freezing rain can be expected through morning, with a quarter to half inch of ice accretion expected. The highest ice amounts are still expected across the northwestern CWA (Lamar to Nevada/Ft Scott, east to Lake of the Ozarks), where temperatures are coldest and ice accretion will be most efficient. Low level WAA is expected to increase later this morning, and that will help the freezing line finally push north toward I-70 by mid day.
1125 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017 High pressure has led to mostly clear skies and light winds this evening. With dry air holding firm between an area of low pressure to the north and developing low pressure well to the south, we should see clear skies tonight and sunny skies on Sunday. The main concern in the extended is an area of low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest from the Central Plains, which will bring a wintry mix of precipitation early this week.
Split flow aloft continues with nearly zonal flow over the Northern Plains and the main upper low well to our south over Baja California. The southern upper low will move into the Southern Plains by tomorrow but not much else will change and we will still have near zonal flow and tranquil conditions in our neck of the woods.
1137 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move off the New England coast overnight. An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight and will bring a slight chance of snow showers to the Adirondacks and Green Mountains after midnight and early Sunday morning.
400 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
To the north and west skies were cloudy and temperatures ranged from the low 40s. This is likely due to the weak gradient over the region well ahead of the approaching upper level low in the Baja.
This will be thanks to a new round of high pressure building from the Plains into the Great Lakes that will maintain very favorable aviation conditions for mid January.
Water vapor continues to show dry zonal flow through the nrn plains, with an upper low over the Baja of CA. Pleasant weather continues tomorrow with thermal profiles suggesting even warmer temps for most of the cwfa. Clouds will increase across scntrl SD tomorrow and tomorrow night as upper low sweeps through the Four Corners into the srn/cntrl plains. A bit of freezing rain or snow is possible across far scntrl SD late Sunday night.
Tonight and Sunday Tranquil weather to continue for one more day as high pressure to be our main weather feature. The 20z MSAS surface analysis showed a large area of high pressure that extended from the northern Plains eastward through the Great Lakes to the New England states. Last of the low clouds have finally dissipated over east-central WI, leaving clear skies across the rest of the forecast area. Quiet and very cold conditions to exist across northeast WI as the high pressure to dominate the Great Lakes region.
352 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure builds into the region today and tonight.
1252 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 System will exit the area this evening and high pressure will briefly build into the region.
332 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Surface analysis shows area of high pressure centered to the NW this AM across IA/IL region and quasi stationary boundary is now across portions of the TN Valley.
316 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure.
Northern stream flow cuts across southern Canada before troughing into the northeastern states. The other split over the west coast dives southward into a potent upper level low/trough migrating eastward over the SW states/northern Mexico. Southern stream is moving northeastward ahead of this upper low into the deep south states. the FL peninsula/eastern Gulf of Mexico resides under a broad mid/upper ridge. The influence of the ridge aloft can be seen on the 15/00Z KTBW sounding which showed a strong subsidence inversion at around 750mb. high pressure is centered to our north. and closer proximity to the ridge center has allowed the formation of dense fog to the north of the I-4 corridor.
/issued 137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/ Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today.
1240 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Cool high pressure will extend into the Carolinas through the weekend.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today, with above average temperatures expected once again. This trough axis will rotate WNW through the day as low-layer flow begins to veer. Later this afternoon there may be a brief, light shower that develops along this trough and have included low-end PoPs across much of north Florida and parts of south Georgia. Highs will climb into the middle to upper 70s once again, but may be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday due to the clouds and isolated showers.
307 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build across the area today.
A low pressure system departing across northwest Mexico will provide areas with gusty north winds and some lingering showers primarily across northwest Arizona tonight and Sunday.
Impacts of a strong winter storm will affect southwest and central Kansas tonight and Sunday as short range models indicate a strong closed off upper level low shifting slowly eastward out of Baja California into extreme west Texas during the period. With model soundings showing H85 temperatures around 3C to 8C while higher than forecast temperatures this afternoon are expected to drop to around 27F to 32F tonight, look for primarily rain late this afternoon with a switch over to freezing rain later this evening as precip overspreads the region. Temperatures will not climb much Sunday with highs expected only up into the lower to mid 30s(F) by the afternoon time frame.
Mid level ridging will continue the string of abnormally warm days for Sunday as highs reach into the mid and upper 70s. The exception will be over the far northwest where cooler air and cloud cover behind the boundary will keep readings in the mid 60s.
As high pressure continues west of the divide, slight pressure falls east of the divide will be enough to push winds sporadically into the 30 to 40 mph range through tomorrow.
An upper level low pressure system passing to the south this weekend will continue to spread moisture northward into southern Utah today. High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin for the first half of the week, followed by a return to an active weather pattern late in the week.
359 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Central Plains remains well downstream of the upper low, now beginning to rotate northeast into the Southwest states. Drizzle becoming more prevalent locally in recent hours as the backing of the winds deeps toward the surface with temps very close to freezing. Wet bulb temps remain in the mid 20s to near 30 for freezing precip to be the rule. ECMWF has verified too dry in the lower levels per ceiling observations, likely contributing to its lower QPF, while the GFS has some of the lowest QPF of its ensembles.
Upper ridge continues to flatten somewhat through tonight but rebounds Sunday ahead of the upper low lifting out of northern Mexico onto the southern plains.
352 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Upper level low is currently centered across northwest Mexico, just south of Arizona. Model soundings support that this will fall as all liquid, either light freezing rain or rain depending on the temperature, which will be right near the freezing mark. The upper low will track northeast into Kansas tonight. Model consensus is that the heavier precipitation will stay southeast of western and north central Nebraska, but with the continued potential for light freezing rain, sleet and light snow tonight will maintain the winter storm warning currently in effect. As mentioned above, the heaviest precipitation appears it will now remain southeast of western and north central Nebraska, as the upper low track has shifted some to the southeast.
1144 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move off the New England coast overnight. An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight and will bring a slight chance of snow showers to the Adirondacks and Green Mountains after midnight and early Sunday morning.
303 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front today.
The interior cold front is still hung up between College Station and Conroe. Many should experience early day drizzle or light showers generally along and north of the Highway 59 corridor.
Precip looks to start as snow, then transition to sleet then to rain and some freezing rain as warmer air moves into the area. Models have been trending slightly cooler, which would result in more snow and sleet, but there is plenty of time for that to change. Any remaining lake effect clouds will clear out overnight with the approach of a high pressure ridge and moderating airmass. As the high moves off to the east, increasing southwest winds above the low level inversion will bring LLWS to IWD and SAW this evening. Winds will then diminish to under 15kt Mon thru at least Mon evening as a high pres ridge moves over the area.
Currently temperatures in the northwest are in the low 40s while along the TN/AL border and northeastward toward Crossville temperatures are holding in the low to mid 50s. Rain chances look low today as upper ridging gradually builds into the area.
/issued 749 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017/ 00Z Raob data shows a strong subsidence inversion around 775MB or just under 8KFT associated with deep layered ridging over the forecast area.
348 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Main concerns this morning continue to be with regards to freezing rain as well as fog with the possibility of a few strong to severe storms this evening. First off, band of heavier freezing rain across far northern Oklahoma will move north of the area over the next couple of hours. We do anticipate another area of rain/freezing rain to move back into portions of western/northwestern Oklahoma later this morning, with very little significant precip elsewhere through the morning hours. Also, temps continue to hover near freezing and are expected to gradually climb above freezing across all but northwest Oklahoma by late morning. With this in mind will drop ice storm warning for portions of central/north central Oklahoma and transition to a freezing rain advisory.
226 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017 09z surface analysis had high over the Great Lakes with weak return flow over the CWA ahead of lee trough in place from central MT into central CO. Lift ahead of upper low will bring small chances for a wintry mix over south central SD late tonight.
An upper level ridge currently exists across the Gulf oF Mexico with a closed low located acrosS Baja California. The surface boundary will linger across the forecast area with warmer than average temperatures continuing with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Went on the higher sides of guidance with temperatures being much warmer than forecast over the last couple of days.
409 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build east across the region today as a frontal boundary remains stalled to our south.
Temperatures have been lowered slightly to match with trends, but it will still be quite muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at area terminals through the forecast period as high pressure strengthens over the area.
We have been struggling to reach the heat advisory criteria over southeast Missouri the last 2 afternoons, and guidance is trending a bit cooler and drier for Wednesday. East of the Advisory it should be a few degrees cooler than today.
Storms have been high-based and generated erratic winds with 30-50 mph gusts observed, ie not severe, though a few stronger storms did manage to produce small hail despite the very high freezing levels. Weak cold front will slide in from the west later tonight bringing a few degrees of cooling for our west tomorrow. Generally hot and dry weather can be expected through the short term with high pressure dominating.
Farther west however, a warm front is stretching from North Dakota to central Illinois. Forecast concerns revolve around precip chances as the warm front moves into the region on Wednesday. The warm front will gradually lift northeast as mid-level ridging shifts east into the western Great Lakes. Then think will see mid-clouds increase as the warm front draws closer to the region, and mid-level moisture transport increases. Temps warming a degree or two into the low to mid 80s.
/issued 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ The primary synoptic feature is the pronounced upper-level anticyclone spinning over the Southern Plains this afternoon. The high CAPE/low shear environment will be supportive of ordinary cell, pulse convection, maintaining a minimal potential for severe weather. Temperatures are in the low/mid 90s across the Mid- South, with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees at numerous automated observing stations. Hotter weather conditions are anticipated for the latter portion of the work week as the subtropical ridge builds eastward.
The low level jet will increase this evening through Kansas and Nebraska and veer into NW Iowa and SW Minnesota and this will drive strong theta-e advection northeast into North Central and Northeast Iowa.
525 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 large high pressure ridge will dominate the weather in the period, bringing hot weather to the region. The fa will remain on the edge of the ridge with perturbed sw flow continuing on the nw side of the ridge, perhaps supporting a shra/ts over far nw sd wed,as one of these impulse advects through the region. Thermal ridge will time over the fa wed, supporting very warm temps under clear skies and deep mixing.
As a result scattered thunderstorms are occurring with some strong to severe storms as well, given the high cape values. Going forward, we are currently under the influence of a strengthening ridge of high pressure. On Wednesday, upper high will strengthen with lower mrh values and an increase in low level subsidence.
However, each run of the HRRR through the day continues to suggest convective development this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of a warm front that is becoming increasingly more diffuse between ND Highway 200 and I-94. The most likely scenario is for possible post-frontal convection to develop as a cold front moves from northwest to southeast late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Over the higher terrain and along the Front Range, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible with additional rainfall expected to be light. Temperatures may be slightly warmer, but this will depend on the timing of cloud cover developing.
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide fair weather overnight.
This is in response to some increased lower and mid level moisture that has moved in from the east around the southern periphery of the upper ridge. The little disturbance moving through today will be gone by tomorrow with the upper ridge in control of things across the southern Plains. This higher humidity is likely in response to the low/mid level moisture plume and rather deep east-southeast flow.
Southwest flow aloft Wednesday with the upper low center offshore. Expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temps.
100 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 A cold front will move into the area tonight and Wednesday then dissipate. High pressure will build in late week into the weekend. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to mid 70s coast. A large ridge of high pressure will build east through late week into the weekend with drier conditions and hot temperatures.
704 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through Wednesday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast by late week.
Currently there is a MCS over southern Iowa moving to the SE along the backside of the upper level ridge. Outside of the potential severe weather and storms along the NE portion of the CWA the main concern this week will be the heat as pronounced ridge (598dam) moves over the region.
Surface wise, a weakening western atlantic ridge is draped across the Gulf coast region, with a minor north-south trough aligned draped near the extreme Northwest Bahamas southward into the Island of Cuba.
723 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Central Lakes will drift East and move off the East coast late Wednesday.
At this point due to the strengthening ridge moving further east into the area and some evidence in model soundings of a weak CAP developing around 700 mb, only kept a 20 pop in the forecast.
Focus shifts to building heat over the next couple of days with build ridge, and elevated dewpoint levels, partially from corn evapotranspiration.
628 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 No issues through Wednesday as upper level high pressure will remain firmly in control. Southeasterly winds have also been a more present feature with the center of the the summertime ridge to our east over Oklahoma. This pattern will remain with us through early tomorrow as the ridge then begins to expand westward with time. An increase in heights and temperatures aloft along with eventual drying of the atmosphere will result in afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer than today. Broad mid-summer ridge centered near the Ozarks is still forecast to migrate slowly westward later this week while diminishing in girth and flattening.
/issued 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Upper level ridge to remain the dominant factor in West Central Texas through the next 24 hours and beyond.
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Central Lakes will drift East and move off the East coast late Wednesday.
941 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 A cold front will approach the area tonight and cross the Carolinas by Wednesday. A strong upper level ridge over the central US will expand east through the end of the week. expect the storm chances to slowly reduce to a slight chance as the cold front slips into the northern zones late. The cold front is expected to settle over NC on Wednesday morning, with slightly drier and more stable air north of the front and moderate instability south of the front again by Wednesday afternoon.
A storm west of Devils Lake in the vicinity of a more localized area of nil MLCIN is moving into warmer air aloft and increasing MLCIN, however how much this will weaken over the next couple of hours is still in question as a well defined vort max moves east north of the border. Dew points have risen into the low 70s about as expected and as full solar tomorrow will heat up a warm boundary layer that will bring heat indices to near the 100 degree mark by tomorrow afternoon. Another round of storms is possible as another short wave embedded in the upper ridge moves across the area tomorrow, with the main inhibitor once again being mid level temps and the strength of the waves ability to break the cap.
938 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016 A cold front will move south of the area tonight.
High pressure to the northeast of the state will continue to dominate the area on Wednesday and through the rest of the week with generally easterly flow remaining in place.
with mixing quite limited given the high PW/s in place. With the presence of the upper ridge remaining persistent over the Srn Plains and Ms Valley through the remainder of the week.
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 A cold front will move into the area tonight and Wednesday then dissipate. High pressure will build in late week into the weekend. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to mid 70s coast. A large ridge of high pressure will build east through late week into the weekend with drier conditions and hot temperatures.
/issued 628 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ No issues through Wednesday as upper level high pressure will remain firmly in control. Southeasterly winds have also been a more present feature with the center of the the summertime ridge to our east over Oklahoma. This pattern will remain with us through early tomorrow as the ridge then begins to expand westward with time. An increase in heights and temperatures aloft along with eventual drying of the atmosphere will result in afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer than today. Broad mid-summer ridge centered near the Ozarks is still forecast to migrate slowly westward later this week while diminishing in girth and flattening.
Best coverages will be Between Arlington and Kimball and south of Douglas and Lusk through early evening as warmer midlevel temps should help keep coverages east and north less. Expect more scattered showers and thunderstorms west of Wheatland and Cheyenne tomorrow afternoon where midlevel temperatures will be a bit cooler in the southwesterly flow aloft on the western periphery of the southern Plains ridge.
There isn't much to say, once the upper high takes over. Upper high centered near the Ozarks into Oklahoma this afternoon, with anvil debris from last night's MCS in Nebraska trapped in the anticyclonic circulation aloft.
630 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 For the 00Z TAFS, an upper level ridge of high pressure will persist across the srn high plains through late Wednesday afternoon. A surface trof of low pressure will remain over ern CO and ern NM. /Issued 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ A ridge of high pressure will continue to dictate the weather throughout the forecast period. Starting the second half of the weekend, the ridge will start the deamplify and break down across the south central U.
Hot the next few days as the 500mb ridge over the plains states continues to take control over much of the country.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region with weak lee troughing over eastern CO/western Nebraska. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen over the central/southern Plains through Thu with 850mb temps warming into the 25-30C range. We should start to see numerous sites get into the low 100s starting Wed and continuing through Fri. This should help break down the upper ridging over the southern Rockies into the Plains.
With high pressure remaining to our north this week we will maintain an east to southeast wind flow at 10 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet.
Drier air moves in Wednesday as weak high pressure ridges south into the Tennessee Valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 96 73 97 / 20 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 93 71 93 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 93 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 89 63 90 / 20 10 0 10.