Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mid to upper level trough is running from southern California into Montana as of this writing. The center of the low pressure is approaching the Four Corners Region. With the approaching upper level trough, a jet maxima around 100kts at H5 downstream of the axis is currently passing over the area. This also aid in some warmer H85 temperatures to come into the western third of the combined Panhandles. Conversely with the H85 temperatures below freezing over the rest of the FA, these areas will struggle to leave the 30s with the eastern OK Panhandle even struggling to leave the upper 20s. Overnight tonight the cold air will move back over the entire FA with lows dropping into the low teens for the southern half of the FA and single digits for the northern half.
This system will exit the area this afternoon and high pressure yet again folds over the region.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop later this morning into the afternoon ahead of another cold front. The cold front is expected to arrive late this evening with breezy north winds. The cold front, which moved through the area yesterday, continues to slowly push farther off the lower Texas coast early this morning. Clouds may thin out briefly to allow highs to reach the low to mid 50s along the Rio Grande River and near the coast this afternoon. A second surge of high pressure/cold front will arrive this evening and bring a reinforcing push of cold air into the region tonight.
Fog may be dense at times, and the SREF and NAM suggest the highest chances for dense fog will be along the Atlantic coast and St.
337 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 As of 9Z, a cold and dry Canadian high pressure is situated over western Minnesota. That said, a deep trough currently over the four corners region will track across the southern plains today, perhaps spreading LLM and light snow as far north as Highway 212 in central SD, and near Summit and Ortonville in the eastern CWA.
A trough currently over the Four Corners region will slide northeast today. By the time it reaches the Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening, deterministic models show the potential vorticity downstream of the trough balling up, increasing the positive vorticity advection as it does. Given the higher confidence in snow amounts, the fact that high SLR evens tend to over perform, and through collaboration with our neighboring offices, a winter weather advisory has been issued for northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. High pressure persists through most of Friday.
Further south, the snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain along the I-70 corridor. Further south, the precip has mainly been in the form of light freezing drizzle across the SE KILX CWA where a thin glaze of ice will be likely. The snow will then taper off to flurries/freezing drizzle then end from south to north overnight. Further south, atmospheric profiles suggest a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow along the I-70 corridor.
Overall, snowfall is expected to be around 2 to 5 inches with the higher totals expected along the lakeshore.
High pressure over the Atlantic extending back to north-central Florida will make for easterly to southeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots south of The Cape, and southeasterly to southerly around 10 knots north to the North.
Scanning the far northwest, we are still looking at near to slightly below freezing temperatures for the Stewart, Montgomery and Houston county area. A warm front will be lifting northward by afternoon and this will likely give our southern counties a bit of a break.
Temperatures do trend cooler areawide today with high temperatures well below normal. The passage of the upper trough over the shallow cold layer over northeast New Mexico early this morning has generated some light snow along the Northeast Highlands/I-25 corridor. Northwest winds are expected to pick up along the Central/Northeast Highlands later today as the upper trough exits, and where winds may reach Wind Advisory criteria. While Friday will be warmer overall, temperatures will remain below normal.
Friday looked dry as lee troughing strengthens over the area.
257 AM MST Thu Feb 24 2022 Longwave trough slowly fills and breaks off to the east during the short term, with one final lobe wrapping around the trough into western WY today. Once this final lobe rotates through tonight, ridging starts to build across the Intermountain West. The ridge will not build in quickly. Lower elevations will likely finally get into the lower 20s Friday afternoon, helped by some increasing westerly flow at the sfc. Warmer conditions will delay until the longer term forecast. The weekend will be dry as ridging builds across the western US.
We'll also have to watch for any wind-convergence-induced snowfall enhancement this eve if winds can turn more northerly in the Upper Snake but remain westerly out of the Magic Valley, again favoring the lower Snake Plain region. Fri, high pressure begins building in with little change in temps.
Meanwhile, deep layer ridging remains firmly in place across the Gulf of Mexico and extending east across the Florida Peninsula, and into the western North Atlantic.
154 AM PST Thu Feb 24 2022 Cool and dry through Friday with widespread freezing low temperatures in the early morning hours. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend.
While the DGZ encompasses the lowest 5 kft of the atmosphere, much of the lift is confined to well above that.
As of 9Z, a cold and dry Canadian high pressure is situated over western Minnesota. That said, a deep trough currently over the four corners region will track across the southern plains today, perhaps spreading LLM and light snow as far north as Highway 212 in central SD, and near Summit and Ortonville in the eastern CWA.
/issued 348 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022/ Currently across the Mid-South, we have a swath of thunderstorms, rain, freezing rain and perhaps some sleet moving basically along the I-40 corridor. Total freezing rain accumulation up to a half inch in spots is possible.
Observations show temperatures are near freezing from Beeville to north of Victoria. Although there could be a window for light freezing rain to occur over the northern portions of Bee, Goliad, and Victoria Counties early this morning, expect the majority of any precipitation over these counties will be in the form of light rain. Expect highs will be in the 40s except for along the Rio Grande where the temps will rise into the lower to mid 50s. Another surge of high pressure will arrive this evening.
916 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Temperatures will remain well above normal through Friday with a dry cold front crossing the area Friday afternoon.
147 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 The base of the mid level/upper level trough was swinging westward across western Kansas late this morning and early afternoon. The subsident influence of the backside of the trough will dominate the area going into Tonight as well as a weakening surface wind field. Friday will bring the return of widespread above freezing high temperatures to southwest and central Kansas. And this seems well supported by the raw models/mos and even bias corrected forecast grids, or the NBM10th/5th percentiles to see lows colder than freezing. Friday night should likely see temperatures warmer than the single digits areawide.
Winds become easterly again overnight as the cold front moves back through the region. At this time, confidence is low on any freezing drizzle/fog impacting MAF or HOB terminals. With dewpoints holding steady in the upper teens and low 20s overnight, patchy freezing fog may develop across portions of the Permian Basin and eastern Lea County. High temperatures on Friday will get back above freezing. Temperatures once again become chilly overnight and much of the area is expected to fall below freezing.
Conditions will change as a low pressure system tracks just to our south late tonight and Friday. High pressure over eastern Canada today will bring dry weather to the region along with below normal temperatures with highs generally in the mid teens to mid 20s.
1211 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Temperatures will remain well above normal through Friday with a dry cold front crossing the area Friday afternoon.
141 PM MST Thu Feb 24 2022 A deep trough continues to pivot east through the central US, as evident in water vapor imagery. Further upstream, another trough axis extends from eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan back into western Idaho.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 18z surface analysis shows a broad ridge of high pressure stretching from the northern Minnesota into western Quebec. with east/northeast boundary layer flow across the forecast area to the south of this ridging. one over parts of the Plains and southern Minnesota/Iowa is associated with a short wave trough emerging from the southern Rockies and crossing Nebraska/Kansas. Central Plains short wave trough will eventually cross Lower Michigan overnight. and with flow slightly north of west across Upper Michigan suggests that much of the snowfall tonight will remain south of the bridge. Pretty impressive upper level dynamics across Lower Michigan later tonight with this passing short wave trough.
Clearing is expected overnight in the wake of the departing upper trof with light winds over the light snow covered areas allowing for one last very frigid night.
With loss of ice crystals aloft for a majority of the region, the mixed precipitation is transitioning back to freezing drizzle that will linger through the evening hours before coming to an end. Consensus of ensemble model data is that the upper level pattern will transition from northwest flow to a building ridge over the central CONUS by Thursday. As we head toward the first weekend of March, it appears that the synoptic pattern becomes loaded again with a large trough of low pressure anchored across the western CONUS and deep southwest flow established across the Midwest. Otherwise, light snow will persist for KCOU, KJEF and KUIN before transitioning to freezing drizzle and snow through the evening hours. Then with loss of ice crystals aloft, precipitation will transition back to freezing drizzle through the evening before tapering off after 05z Friday.
An upper level trough moving south across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho today will bring areas of mountain obscuration and periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in snow.
Less clearing over western and central Minnesota would keep temperatures warmer in the single digits below zero.
If clouds do form, icing will be a concern as temperatures will be sub-freezing within the layer. With RAP soundings showing temperatures as cold as possibly -11C to -12C in this extremely shallow moist layer, sufficient ice nuclei are present to prevent freezing drizzle from falling resulting in these fine ice crystals. /issued 248 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022/ The center of an upper level low was currently located near the 4- corners early this Thursday morning. Nonetheless, we have gone on the lower side of guidance spread for temperatures this afternoon.
Temperatures across our eastern counties, where cloud cover should persist longer, may only reach the low to mid 30s. Patchy stratus and patch freezing fog are possible across mainly our northwest counties, after midnight, but confidence remain low in this solution.
Below normal temperatures continue tomorrow, although some late-February sunshine should help highs climb to near freezing and eliminate the thin layer of snow cover even as cold- air advection persists.
Small hail along with very heavy sleet and freezing rain are occurring with the strongest cores with hail up to penny size being reported. A couple bands of sleet, freezing rain, with thunderstorms will continue to impact mainly southeast Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon before slowly pulling away by mid to late afternoon. Locally heavy amounts of sleet and freezing are possible in the strongest cores which will translate to rapid decline in travel conditions.
252 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Low pressure centered over southern Missouri will gradually move east through the period. Precip on the northern end of this low and wrap around will affect the area through the mid evening. Some freezing drizzle was reported across the far southern and eastern portions of the CWA. This should turn to snow as cooler air moves into the area. This low and the snow will drive the weather through the next few hours. This was likely due to less ice aloft and just slightly warmer temperature profiles that kept ice from forming.
With fresh snow cover and light winds under an arctic high pressure temperatures will be cold.
Forecast Discussion: Widespread light snow associated with an approaching mid-level trough had resulted in about half an inch to one inch of accumulation by early this afternoon. High pressure will be centered over the CWA tomorrow so we will see some sunshine and will have light winds. Temperatures should finally warm to near freezing tomorrow after three days with highs in the teens to near 20 degrees. Low level winds turn to the south and southwest this weekend has high pressure moves east.
High pressure will exit to our east this afternoon into this evening, bringing southerly winds into the picture. With the High moving east, the pressure gradient will tighten over the weekend, increasing our wind speeds.
134 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 A low pressure system crosses through Friday. Its warm front brings rain this evening. Its cold front brings more rain tonight into Friday morning. A low pressure center will lift north from the eastern TN/KY border into WV this evening, spreading additional periods of rain. This low will push another cold front overnight to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 1. Precipitation will gradually be tapering off across the higher terrain late Friday night as high pressure builds in from the west.
Longwave trough slowly fills and breaks off to the east during the short term, with one final lobe wrapping around the trough into western WY today. Once this final lobe rotates through tonight, ridging starts to build across the Intermountain West. The ridge will not build in quickly. Lower elevations will likely finally get into the lower 20s Friday afternoon, helped by some increasing westerly flow at the sfc. Warmer conditions will delay until the longer term forecast. The weekend will be dry as ridging builds across the western US.
Even using the coldest model (NAM), a reinforcement of cold air tonight results in temps holding above freezing area wide which would keep frozen precip concerns to our north.
124 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 Low clouds persist over the area north of a strong warm front (strong in the sense of temperature gradient). The front may lift further northwest into northwest AL and southern middle TN late this afternoon and early this evening as a surface wave of low pressure develops in southern MS and tracks north- northeast along the front. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the northwest with any lingering showers near the I-59 corridor ending early Friday.
A cold front associated with a reinforcing shot of arctic air is moving through east Idaho this afternoon. High pressure settles into the region for Friday although models have us lingering to some low stratus through much of the day.
Tonight and Friday Lake effect snow showers continue but were less organized this afternoon across east central Wisconsin while light snow approaches central and northcentral Wisconsin ahead of a significant upper trough. This upper trough will produce enough forcing to produce a couple inches of dry snow across the area tonight.
Precip should begin as sleet/freezing rain south of I80 and snow to the north. Sleet/freezing rain transition zone initially sets up along the PA Turnpike and west of I99 before creeping northward to I80 into the predawn hours. The lower trend has been a clear signal in the NBM 4. 50" over the ridges and summits in the Laurel Highlands/southwest Alleghenies with a glaze to two tenths expected elsewhere. Temps on Friday should get above freezing at least briefly before trending colder to end the day.
The warm front is expected to lift north this afternoon. However, we are still expecting another round of widespread heavy rain late tonight through tomorrow morning as a cold front moves through. Cold front sweeps in tonight with widespread SHRA nearing terminals by 08z-09z in the south, and closer to 12z in the north. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 49 58 36 49 / 10 80 30 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 48 58 34 49 / 60 80 50 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 58 46 56 34 49 / 80 90 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 48 59 32 48 / 100 70 70 10 10 TN.
238 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 An upper trough continues to advance eastward across the Central and Northern Plains this afternoon, and will be located across the Great Lakes Region by Friday morning. Some light snow occurred today with the passage of the trough, and amounts generally ranging from 1/2" to locally 3". At the surface, a light westerly downslope flow will begin to dislodge the Arctic air, with highs topping the freezing mark across southwest for the first time in days.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Strong high pressure centered over the Northern Plains will flow south and spread over the area tonight. Another surge of high pressure/cold front will arrive this evening and will bring a reinforcing push of cold air into the region tonight. Overnight low temps from the mid to upper 30s across the Northern Ranchlands to the lower to mid 40s for the Lower Valley, only slightly warmer by day, will be the rule. Along with the low overcast skies, some fog will persist.
331 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Record warmth is possible Friday ahead of approaching low pressure.
While areas within western KY and southern IL are currently reporting a wintry mix including freezing rain and snow, expect precipitation to remain as a plain cold rain across our area as temperatures should remain at least a couple of degrees above freezing. Precipitation intensity will increase as we move into the evening hours as the wave of low pressure at the surface treks NE through the OH Valley.
The warm front is expected to lift north this afternoon. However, we are still expecting another round of widespread heavy rain late tonight through tomorrow morning as a cold front moves through. MVFR conditions will return late tonight as rain moves into the region ahead of a cold front. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 58 36 49 37 / 80 30 10 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 58 34 49 35 / 80 50 10 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 46 56 34 49 33 / 90 40 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 59 32 48 33 / 70 70 10 10 20 TN.
142 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 The base of the mid level/upper level trough was swinging westward across western Kansas late this morning and early afternoon. The subsident influence of the backside of the trough will dominate the area going into Tonight as well as a weakening surface wind field. Friday will bring the return of widespread above freezing high temperatures to southwest and central Kansas. And this seems well supported by the raw models/mos and even bias corrected forecast grids, or the NBM10th/5th percentiles to see lows colder than freezing. Friday night should likely see temperatures warmer than the single digits areawide.
Today Through Friday Night Ongoing winter storm is finally winding to a close today with a lingering band of freezing rain moving from west to east across the state. Frigid Canadian high pressure begins to nose in from the north tonight with temps plummeting to the upper single digits to teens over the northwest and 20s/30s elsewhere. Friday will see additional warming with highs above freezing for most areas outside the Ozarks and Ouachitas.
In addition, we are starting to see warmer temps in the southwest thanks in part to the downsloping winds as areas are finally getting into the 40s.
This has resulted in a band of freezing drizzle and fog on the edge of the surface cold pool with snow just beginning to form in the deformation axis. With the warm overrunning into Central Indiana the freezing rain/sleet over the southern counties will further reduce accumulations. The trof over the north atlantic deepens as the entire longwave pattern becomes more progressive.
Further south, the snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain along the I-70 corridor. Freezing drizzle has already begun in some areas but is not being reported at any of the observation sites. Further south, the precip has mainly been in the form of light freezing drizzle across the SE KILX CWA where a thin glaze of ice will be likely. The snow will then taper off to flurries/freezing drizzle then end from south to north overnight. Further south, atmospheric profiles suggest a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow along the I-70 corridor.
Some drier air in the low levels has delayed snow onset a bit longer than originally expected, but there seems to be enough momentum now from the strengthening lift given increasing number of snowfall observations just outside our area. That should help to prime the lower levels for once stronger QG forcing arrives later this afternoon-evening. High pressure will gradually build across the area.
1117 AM MST Thu Feb 24 2022 Skies are clearing quickly this morning behind the trough axis and we should be mostly clear for the afternoon, with probably just a few lingering clouds and very light snowfall in the mountains. Water vapor satellite early this morning shows our main trough axis finally passing through the state. Over the mountains, light orographic snow will continue this morning with winds aloft switching to the west-northwest behind the trough axis. However, increasing subsidence aloft should shut off snow across the majority of the high country in the afternoon hours. An upper level trough will weaken as it slowly tracks southeast across the Central Rockies Friday and Friday night.
Current trends seemingly indicating our temps likely to be a good bit cooler than previously thought, even though we will see a gradual warming trend throughout the day.
Below average temperatures will persist through the week with sub-freezing overnight and early morning temperatures across the interior. A look at the 24 hour trends shows a majority to the lower elevations are running several degrees colder this morning. The higher terrain however, is actually running slightly warmer. Warmer weather over the weekend. Several hours of sub- freezing temperatures will likely damage or kill vegetation and any exposed pipes. Temperatures this afternoon will once again warm only into the 50s for most urban areas while holding in the 40s in the higher terrain. As high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds toward the California coast, look for a slight warm-up Friday afternoon. The warming trend will continue into the upcoming weekend as the aforementioned ridge builds eastward and the cold mid/upper level trough responsible our current cold temperatures shifts further east.
The heavier band of wintry precipitation continues to exit the area, however freezing drizzle and light snow is expected through the afternoon and evening. Areas along and southeast of a line from West Plains to Eminence, Missouri could receive additional freezing rain ice accumulations up to 0. Additional low level lift is expected through the afternoon, and spotty freezing drizzle and light snow is expected, which would create additional impacts. Cannot rule out additional freezing rain, mainly along a West Plains to Eminence line as the heavier band moves out of the area. Regarding additional accumulation amounts, freezing drizzle/freezing rain could result in an additional glaze of ice, mainly along and south of I-44, however, some localized areas receiving up to 0.
Issued by the National Weather Service Tucson AZ 111 PM MST Thu Feb 24 2022 High pressure will build over the region this weekend pushing temperatures back into a normal range.