Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/ Warm and dry conditions are set to continue through tomorrow as upper level ridging remains parked overhead. Similar temperatures to this afternoon are expected tomorrow areawide with highs about 5 degrees warmer than seasonal averages.
Mid level flow becomes a bit more northwesterly as mid level ridging amplifies a bit in response to a low pressure developing over the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures early this morning are in the low to mid 70s. The upper level pattern continues to feature a weakness in the upper level ridge across the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the western Atlantic with weak southerly flow across the Tennessee Valley. Some of the CAMs indicate better coverage of afternoon showers and storms near the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. For now, this is where the highest chances for afternoon showers/storms is forecast.
Meanwhile, a cold front which is currently over northern Kansas will stall to the north of Kansas/Oklahoma border tonight. An upper level ridge is expected to expand an intensify as we move through the week with the center gradually shifting to the west through time. There may be a few cooling showers and storms late in the week with the area on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge.
159 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Today will be hot and mainly rain-free through mid-afternoon, then a cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Dry air in the low levels will suppress any convection and keep it rain-free through mid- afternoon. Otherwise, today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday at most locations with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s.
1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 (The rest of tonight) Higher dew points and a light south wind in most areas will result in warmer overnight lows compared to the last few nights.
Cold front is moving south through the TX Panhandle and by 07-08Z, all sites will have northerly winds behind the passing cold fronts at 10-20 kts.
The cold front is slowly moving through the forecast area, and with it is bringing mainly rain showers, with a few rumbles of thunder. After that, high pressure builds into the region and we get dry through the rest of the day and tonight. Temperatures look to cool off again today with highs ranging through the 70s, and into the lower 80s as the cooler air moves into the region.
With the high building a little today, thicknesses will be slightly higher, resulting in temperatures reaching the century mark across much of the CWA today. These storms are expected to move close enough to our northwest corner to result in partly to mostly cloudy skies over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and far northwestern South Plains this afternoon, which will allow this region to be a few degrees cooler than the rest of the CWA. To begin the period, the center of the upper-level ridge will remain in place over the forecast area.
1052 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 (This evening through Friday) A weak cold front, currently across northwest Kansas/east central Colorado, will continue to move southward this evening and overnight. This will naturally result in warmer overnight low temperatures tonight.
The Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians remain under the influence of upper and surface ridging with only forcing by local terrain.
A warm/moist airmass and a trough over the northwestern CONUS will continue to eject perturbations resulting in daily chances for thunderstorms. Early this morning, we continue to see convection develop on the low level jet, primarily south of Highway 6 nearer a slow moving surface front, with lighter, isolated showers farther north in the post-frontal airmass.
1004 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Besides lingering pockets of mid level clouds, clearing trends continue with surface ridging tonight supportive of good radiational conditions and a similar air mass as two nights ago when cold spots reached the lower 40s in MN. Temps overnight should fall to cooler readings than last night, down into the upper 40s and 50s.
Otherwise, highs will again range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon, with lows in the low to mid 70s tonight.
A weak cold front just north of the Canadian border is expected to drop southward today.
A few more rounds of SH/TS associated to the low pressure system over the NW Gulf waters are to be expected across the region during the overnight and morning hours as the low pressure approaches the Mid to Upper Texas Coasts.
Cooler and drier air aloft helped partially break the cap late this afternoon and into the evening.
435 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area today.
227 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Precipitation chances will increase today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. As we progress through the day, a broad upper level trough beings to sink towards the Great Lakes region and push a surface cold frontal boundary with it. The surface cold front will act to provide a more robust lifting mechanism for thunderstorms as it moves into our eastern IN and west-central OH counties Friday evening. Broad mid level trough will predominate through the weekend. This has trended slightly stronger to the point of being able to drive the surface cold front south of the forecast area, potentially well south.
Otherwise, a weak cold front located across central into southwest Kansas will push south toward northwest Oklahoma today.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Southeastern US, while aloft water vapor imagery shows an expansive subtropical ridge sprawling from the western Atlantic to the Southern Plains, with a slowly decaying upper level low spinning over the distant Florida Straits. The influence of the upper low appears to be confined to above 300 mb, and recent satellite imagery shows minimal convective enhancement associated with this feature.
Large scale pattern at 500 mb features a closed low over far northern Manitoba Canada and high heights across much of the south central and southeast CONUS. A weaker closed low was off the coast of the Pacific NW.
1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A cold front will ooze in from the north this evening, and will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms tonight.
A deep upper-level trough will send a surface cold front surging southward. Sitting in the warm sector of the system, low-70s dewpoints will cause hot and humid conditions, with highs in the low-90s. The surface cold front will be on the door step, beginning to move through in the latter half of the overnight period.
233 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Upper level ridge sits over us today for mainly dry conditions. A trough will continue to deepen over the Pacific Northwest and the ridge axis will shift east into the Dakotas putting us under a southwesterly flow aloft.
Relatively low impact short-term forecast heading into the holiday weekend as much of the West Coast's weather will be dictated by a broad trough along 135 deg W. The positioning of the trough axis offshore will promote onshore flow with occasionally breezy conditions in/around the Delta during the afternoon/overnight hours.
A weak cold front moving through Friday afternoon will bring scattered rain showers and storms to the area. High pressure continues to dominate the region, keeping skies clear and temperatures hot. A weak cold front will move through Friday afternoon, bringing scattered rain showers and storms to the area. Main aviation concern will be timing of thunder chances with cold front pushing through the area Friday afternoon.
852 PM PDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A cooling trend will continue through the Holiday weekend as a trough of low pressure strengthens along the West Coast.
Broad, but messy, upper level ridging maintains its position across the southern CONUS for the next couple days. Moisture remains high, with PWs around 2 inches, and weaknesses in the ridge will provide focus for generally diurnal shower and thunderstorm development.
1129 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Besides lingering pockets of mid level clouds, clearing trends continue with surface ridging tonight supportive of good radiational conditions and a similar air mass as two nights ago when cold spots reached the lower 40s in MN. Temps overnight should fall to cooler readings than last night, down into the upper 40s and 50s.
Moisture has increased over the area from 24 hours ago with dew points now in the low to mid 60s and PW values now are now around 0. Temperatures were in the low to mid 70s as of 2 AM which was from 3 to 8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and around 20 degrees warmer over parts of south central MO. Thursdays highs were generally a degree or two warmer than the previous day and things look similar for this afternoons highs with low to mid 90s across the area.
23Z sfc analysis shows weakening high pressure over Kentucky and lower pressure off to the northeast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return for Friday before a cold front brings better chances for showers and storms for Friday afternoon. The upper level pattern starts out with a large trough over eastern Canada which will support an area of low pressure near the Hudson bay and will drag a cold front through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley.
418 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Precipitation chances will increase today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Broad mid level trof settles south into the Great Lakes today. This will allow an associated surface cold front to slip into northern Ohio this afternoon and then across the TAF sites tonight. Ongoing storms in the moderate instability in the warm sector ahead of a southward moving surface cold front.
Surface ridging across the Tennessee valley will keep winds light (less than 10kts) except near area convection.
441 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Today will be hot and mainly rain-free through mid-afternoon, then a cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Dry air in the low levels will suppress any convection and keep it rain-free through mid-afternoon. Otherwise, today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday at most locations with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will approach the region from Ontario province this evening. The most widespread showers and storms will develop just ahead of the cold front along a pre-frontal trough, with another line of showers or storms possible right along the front.
333 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging across Idaho and Wyoming approaching the area. SBCAPE of 1200 J/kg and strong shear will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Black Hills and push in from the higher terrain west/southwest of the CWA.
with dewpts in most areas in the low to mid 70s. some NWRN areas have kept slightly lower dewpts in the low to mid 60s early this Fri morning. These areas will see the higher dewpts by later today as moisture continues to stream north. and with the higher dewpts.
1023 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters extending westward into the Florida Peninsula today. Deep layer ridging and a TUTT drifting through Cuba into the Caribbean will dominate the short term weather pattern. The SE steering flow around the base of the low-level ridge will focus morning showers and isolated storms along the east coast, especially across Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s.
A troughing pattern will promote a cooling trend for the interior through the weekend. A NE Pacific longwave trough will begin to dig south and strengthen through the weekend. A blocking pattern will hold steadfast the troughiness, which will coax out light coastal drizzle to maybe isolates light rain at times through the weekend.
We start out today under a broad, east-west subtropical ridge extending from the southern high plains, through the lower MS River valley and Southeast. The ridge wasn't particularly noteworthy in its strength, at 591dm at 500mb.
We are still under the influence of a low pressure system on the TX/LA border with winds out of the S/SE.
Atlantic High ridge axis extending across NOFL will result in winds S-SE 10- 15 knots.
The Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians remain under the influence of upper and surface ridging with only forcing by local terrain. Chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected most days due to a stalled frontal boundary and interaction with a slowly moving tropical low pressure system across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This weekend, a tropical low pressure system across TX and LA will slowly move eastward. A large plume of tropical derived atmospheric moisture will be present with this system, and some interactions with an approaching cold front will be possible across the Tennessee Valley.
Continued warming will occur today and Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds to the east. Southwesterly flow will strengthen over the Northern Rockies Saturday, transporting more moisture into the region as a trough of low pressure deepens off the coast of Washington and Oregon.
Watervapor satellite shows a plume of moisture rotating into the central Plains on the northern periphery of the southern Plains mid level ridge. For today expect the showers and thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the morning hours as the low level jet weakens. Storms increase later tonight as the low level jet increases during the evening hours.
On Saturday, downstream ridging will build across the area as a trough approaches the West Coast.
A look at satellite reveals low-level circulation offshore of South Texas associated with a low/trough. As for us, we're on the dry side of the low but can't completely rule out convection.
652 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area today.
/issued 314 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A weak coastal trough continues to sit along the Texas coast keeping increased tropical moisture into this weekend.
A broad upper ridge will keep temperatures relatively stable the next several days with light winds out of the southeast. Hi-res models are expecting diminishing cloud cover this afternoon with the newest runs now showing high temperatures for today a few degrees warmer than previous runs. As in previous days, thunderstorms will be possible both this afternoon and Saturday, mainly across the higher terrain out west and down into the Big Bend Region. Highs Saturday will be slightly cooler than this afternoon but still a few degrees above normal, in the upper 90s for most.
High pressure at the surface will continue to move in from the west today.
659 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place across the Southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will persist today through Saturday across much of the Central Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. This mornings convection should end as the low-level jet pointed at the area across KS weakens, and the pertabation responsible for the showers/storms shifts east away from the area. Overall the mid-level lapse rates are rather poor, and with the warmer temperatures aloft, hail may be hard to come by.
444 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place across the Southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will persist today through Saturday across much of the Central Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. This mornings convection should end as the low-level jet pointed at the area across KS weakens, and the pertabation responsible for the showers/storms shifts east away from the area. Overall the mid-level lapse rates are rather poor, and with the warmer temperatures aloft, hail may be hard to come by.
With the high building a little today, thicknesses will be slightly higher, resulting in temperatures reaching the century mark across much of the CWA today. These storms are expected to move close enough to our northwest corner to result in partly to mostly cloudy skies over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and far northwestern South Plains this afternoon, which will allow this region to be a few degrees cooler than the rest of the CWA. To begin the period, the center of the upper-level ridge will remain in place over the forecast area. A weak cold front will attempt to move into the southwestern Texas Panhandle Saturday morning however this will be dissipating as it does so leading to no real impacts for the area.
Broad upper ridging is over the region, which will result in temperatures generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Otherwise, higher pressure gradually continues to encroach on northern Michigan through the day with high temperatures ranging from the low 70s to low 80s area-wide. The cold front is slowly moving through the forecast area, and with it is bringing mainly rain showers, with a few rumbles of thunder. After that, high pressure builds into the region and we get dry through the rest of the day and tonight. Temperatures look to cool off again today with highs ranging through the 70s, and into the lower 80s as the cooler air moves into the region.
647 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Precipitation chances will increase today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Broad mid level trof settles south into the Great Lakes today. This will allow an associated surface cold front to slip into northern Ohio this afternoon and then across the TAF sites tonight. Ongoing storms in the moderate instability in the warm sector ahead of a southward moving surface cold front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the mid and upper 80s.
211 AM PDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Seasonably warm temperatures will prevail through Saturday before cooler and below average temperatures arrive through the holiday weekend. Typical afternoon west breezes are expected today with breezier conditions arriving on Saturday ahead of a dry cold front.
Saturday will be dry most areas, with scattered thunderstorms possible around Flagstaff and southeastward over the higher terrain and Apache County.
524 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging across Idaho and Wyoming approaching the area. SBCAPE of 1200 J/kg and strong shear will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Black Hills and push in from the higher terrain west/southwest of the CWA.
Deep layer ridging and a TUTT drifting through Cuba into the Caribbean will dominate the short term weather pattern. The SE steering flow around the base of the low-level ridge will focus morning showers and isolated storms along the east coast, especially across Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s.
406 AM PDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cooling trend will continue through the Holiday weekend as a trough of low pressure strengthens along the West Coast.
Models show a cold front reaching areas just north of the PAH forecast area by 00z.
(Through tonight ) Daytime heating combined with an unstable atmosphere has allowed isolated pulse type showers to develop within the higher terrain of Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. and also over parts of Southeast Oklahoma as an area of low pressure in East/Southeast Texas lifts northward.
/issued 1036 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/ A ridge of high pressure remains over the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. The ridge is weak enough that a combination of subtropical moisture and convective temperatures being reached will result in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with the best coverage occurring across North Mississippi. We start out today under a broad, east-west subtropical ridge extending from the southern high plains, through the lower MS River valley and Southeast. The ridge wasn't particularly noteworthy in its strength, at 591dm at 500mb.
/JNE/ We are still under the influence of a low pressure system on the TX/LA border with winds out of the S/SE.
This will leave mostly clear skies for much of the overnight hours as high pressure builds in across the upper Mississippi Valley. Highs on Saturday are expected to range from the lower to middle 70s across the north, to around 80 across east-central Wisconsin.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A low to mid level ridge centered over Alabama will maintain breezy conditions along the area, with a prevailing south to southerly flow.
1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Some cumulus starting to form in central ND, but pretty flat so far and several of the high res models have backed off on convection for the CWA. A weak cold front just north of the Canadian border is expected to drop southward today.
/Updated at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022/ High pressure will remain over the southeast through the short term. with weaknesses moving through this high that will allow for enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and early evening today and Saturday. areas in the south and east look to have the higher chances for any activity due to convergence at the surface and divergence aloft. the heat indices are going to feel about 10 degrees warmer.
320 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place in the Southern Plains.
A large anticyclone has set up shop across the western North Atlantic. Undulations in the easterlies riding along the southern flank of this high will result in periods of higher rain chances.
High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters extending back into the Florida Peninsula. Therefore, the heat indices over the east coast metro areas will only fall into the lower to mid 80s tonight. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 90s over most of South Florida except around 90 east coast metro areas. The ridge axis will remain north of Lake Okeechobee through the week. Aloft, the pattern is slightly more unsettled as a trough sits over the eastern seaboard of the United States while an area of high pressure holds over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Fourth Of July.
The tropical system currently over the Texas gulf will act to break down the ridge somewhat.
A ridge of high pressure remains over the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. The ridge is weak enough that a combination of subtropical moisture and convective temperatures being reached will result in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with the best coverage occurring across North Mississippi. We start out today under a broad, east-west subtropical ridge extending from the southern high plains, through the lower MS River valley and Southeast. The ridge wasn't particularly noteworthy in its strength, at 591dm at 500mb.
225 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Benign weather will continue for the next 24 hours as the 592 dam sub-tropical ridge remains centered over the CWA.
1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place across the Southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will persist today through Saturday across much of the Central Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. This mornings convection should end as the low-level jet pointed at the area across KS weakens, and the pertabation responsible for the showers/storms shifts east away from the area. Overall the mid-level lapse rates are rather poor, and with the warmer temperatures aloft, hail may be hard to come by.
Once the convection is through, the cold front will have cleared the area and we will have northwest to west winds bringing in air with lower dew points.
The greatest coverage is expected mainly over the high terrain (Mogollon Rim, Bradshaw Mountains, White Mountains, and the Chuska Mountains). Saturday will be dry most areas, with scattered thunderstorms possible around Flagstaff and southeastward over the higher terrain and Apache County.
However, a cold front stretching from Detroit to Saint Louis this afternoon will approach tonight. A weak quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to be draped W-E over the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday night.