Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THOSE IN THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WHO WERE HOPING FOR SOAKING RAINS MIGHT BE DISAPPOINTED AS THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THERE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HEART OF THE U. OR THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST. BUT THEN THE GFS/EC DROP A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS STAYS TO THE WEST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THAT WARMER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 312 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGHS INTENSIFY ALONG BOTH COASTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SLIP ACROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
/ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS FIXED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
LOTS OF CIRRUS WITH CLIMB WINDS VEERING FROM W/SW IN THE LOW LEVELS TO NE ABV FL240.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS THE MID/UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLER CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST AND LAST FEW SCANS FROM BOWMAN RADAR SHOW ECHOES DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH IN VICINITY SHOULD SEE WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE FROM OUT OF THE SW GRADUALLY VEER TO NW/N.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH A MID-CONTINENT RIDGE AND TROFS NR BOTH COASTS IS UNDERWAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY AND THE CAROLINA COAST IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. AS WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES IN NE MS CONTINUE ADVECTING EAST INTO NW AL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE W CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW FALL BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST WITH TIME. /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS FIXED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
/ISSUED 227 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE PLACING MID STATE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AND ALLOW FOR A CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM TO MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WORKING IN NORTH HALF OF THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE WARM FRONT SWINGS UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
Upper level ridging will migrate westward from the southern plains into the southern and central Rockies through mid week. There will be a good chance of thunderstorms as the cold front passes, with the best chances being this afternoon and evening ahead of the front or south of a line from Liberal to Bucklin to Stafford where temperatures will warm into the 90s. However, despite the slightly cooler temperatures north of the front, low level moisture will be very rich with dewpoints near 70F.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDER SHOWERS FOR THESE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND ALSO THE PINE RIDGE FROM LUSK EASTWARD TO CHADRON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. SO MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.
633 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH A VERY HOT ENDING TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY AND INTO MONDAY WILL PHASE AND AMPLIFY A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WHILE A CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST MOVES INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT. ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REFORM WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE IN STORE BEFORE THIS CHANGE OCCURS. AROUND THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL EXPAND NORTH AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MAXES SHOULD RUN AT LEAST 5F WARMER THAN VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THEN COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
PROMINENT SOUTHERN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OWING TO GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SMALL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH.
734 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND SOME WESTWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS LAYER IS THICKENING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND A STRONGER DELTA BREEZE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DROPS SOUTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. AS WELL AS OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONE WHERE SHOWERS COULD BE ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA. /ISSUED 227 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE PLACING MID STATE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AND ALLOW FOR A CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM TO MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WORKING IN NORTH HALF OF THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE WARM FRONT SWINGS UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 95 74 94 74 / 0 10 30 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 71 89 71 / 10 10 50 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 92 72 89 71 / 10 10 50 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 67 85 68 / 10 20 60 60.
829 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 09/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY AND THE CAROLINA COAST IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. AS WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES IN NE MS CONTINUE ADVECTING EAST INTO NW AL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
4 AM CDT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HEIGHT RIDGE HAD EXPANDED SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EXPAND IN CLOSER PROXMITY TO THE MIDSOUTH. DUE IN PART TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BEING SLOWER TO SLOWER TO BUILD EAST YESTERDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE TO TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BRING A GOOD SHOT OF SOME RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
624 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ TEMPS AT 3 AM WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
1156 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS THE MID/UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLER CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST AND LAST FEW SCANS FROM BOWMAN RADAR SHOW ECHOES DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
MONDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR OUR AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS UPPER RIDGING REALLY INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD IN 24 HOURS. A NARROW YET SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN STILL EVIDENT AT THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ABNORMALLY FAR SOUTH FOR EARLY AUGUST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. NARROW MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MID AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES.
/ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 RAIN WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND VEERS AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORMING A NW FLOW OVER THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW SENDING A COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AT THIS TIME OF THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TX BUT 850 TEMPS HAVE WARMED 2 DEGREES AT CRP/FWD AND STAYED THE SAME AT LCH.
A STUBBORN MIDLEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 23C-26C WILL ENSURE WARMER TEMPS TODAY. TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COOLER LOW LYING LOCATIONS FROM ALICE TO BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA.
1159 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME COMMON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF REGION AS WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADUALLY WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW IS STILL PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOSTLY CENTRAL SD AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN MOST AREAS TODAY. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLER CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST AND LAST FEW SCANS FROM BOWMAN RADAR SHOW ECHOES DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
1141 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY.
1105 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED WWD JUST A BIT TODAY. WE WILL STILL SEE OUR TEMPS SOAR INTO THE LOWER 100S. LOTS OF CIRRUS WITH CLIMB WINDS VEERING FROM W/SW IN THE LOW LEVELS TO NE ABV FL240.
Deep layer ridging will dominate today, with the afternoon seabreeze being the only forcing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler storm systems early in the week will bring valley snow across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and across the northern mountains tonight through Wednesday night. Gusty post cold front winds after 06z at Pullman and Lewiston should provide sufficient mixing to raise ceilings and improve visibility, and we may see enough mixing as far north as Spokane and Coeur d'Alene for clearing of low stratus too.
COLD FRONT IS THROUGH DENVER BUT COLDEST AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND. MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT SHOULD HELP TEMPS BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY.
Valleys will see a mix of snow/rain in the evening then primarily snowfall (1-3 inches) overnight, though pockets of occasional light freezing rain are certainly possible especially for the valleys of northwest Montana. Across north central Idaho, several inches of snow will fall above 3000 feet which may impact places such as Whitebird Grade, although freezing rain is not expected to be an issue in that area. Snowfall will turn showery on Wednesday morning with any lingering freezing rain threat ending.
IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS RESULTING IN A N/NW WIND SHIFT FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS 08-16Z. AND AS A RESULT EXPECT TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S).
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE AS WELL AS MVFR CIGS AT KGUY. /ISSUED 549 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL POOL NEAR THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN TO THE EARLY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING COULD CAUSE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE MENTIONED FREEZING RAIN WITH AROUND ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN IS ONLY EXPECTED THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHERE SLEET COULD BE SEEN AS THE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. AREAS IN CENTRAL VALLEY AND PLATEAU COULD SEE SLEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL AT THE FREEZING MARK.
309 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POTENTIAL PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. TOO MUCH DOWNSLOPE AND THE LOWER LEVELS AND TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
Cant rule out some hundredths of freezing rain across mainly srn border counties, but focusing mostly on snow/sleet potential given consistency of colder/further southern/eastern track.
1103 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MARITIMES TODAY THROUGH WED.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT.
ALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINAL NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD OR NEAR THE 20/12Z TIMEFRAME. /ISSUED 456 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE OUR TEXAS COUNTIES IN A WARMER RANGE OF MID TO UPPER THIRTIES WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT QFP TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS NM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE A DRY AND COOLER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST. NEXT TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NM TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE WEDNESDAY. AND BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PLAN TO LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE WHERE SOME EVENING CLEARING AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW MINS TO APPROACH SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN SOUTH SECTIONS OUTSIDE OF DETROIT. READINGS TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. THE FIRST PRIMARY ONE IS VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AT ONSET THAT APPEARS MORE FORMIDABLE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS COMPARED TO RECENT RUNS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ALL RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS AS A WARM FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. A WARM NOSE AT 850 MB SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CHANGE THE SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING. EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1119 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 High pressure ridge axis over the Midwest losing ground today to an approaching upper level disturbance bringing snow for the evening hours. A ridge of Arctic high pressure is still firmly entrenched across the area, although we will trend on the "warmer" return flow side of the ridge today. The developing southeasterly flow, while not warm, will allow temperatures to climb several degrees warmer than yesterday. 1033 mb arctic high pressure over IL this morning to drift east into the eastern Ohio River valley this evening.
1023 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 The cold front and upper system to the northwest of the area poised to impact ern OK and nw AR later today and tonight. Temperatures across Far ne Ok and nw AR will sneak above freezing for several hours this afternoon. however wet bulb effects once precipitation begins will likely bring temps back down below freezing. most precipitation across ne OK and nw AR for the duration of the event will be drizzle and freezing drizzle.
The going forecast mentions areas of freezing fog later tonight. Will keep the freezing fog in the forecast for tonight and let the next shift adjust as necessary. The upper wave continues to move through during the evening hours with the models showing an upper low closing off as it moves through north central Kansas during the evening. Given that the model soundings show a drier layer in the lower levels that will have to be overcome, think that these amounts are too high and will continue with the current snow forecast of up to two inches in central Kansas.
359 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS ALSO ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA DURG THE DAY TOMORROW. KEEPING POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN FCST BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL QUICKLY PULL THIS FRONT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STG SHEAR WILL POSE A GREATER TSTM THREAT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THUR NEAR THIS WARM FRONT.
Drier/warmer air near the Trans Pecos and Marfa Plateau have resulted in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will veer slightly to the north by this evening with the passage of a cold front.
LATEST RAP AND OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR WEST AS HUTCHINSON- SALINA. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW LAYERS TOO DRY FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND LACK OF COUPLED FORCING/SCARCE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS RESULTING IN DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW IT.
337 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) The next weak cold front to affect the area is currently moving south across northwest Texas and will enter the northern Big Country around 4 PM. The front washes out on Wednesday, with winds quickly returning to the south as a lee trough develops ahead of the next upper level disturbance moving across the Rockies. Lows to99/99night will range from upper 20s to near 30 across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 30s elsewhere. Skies will be partly cloudy on Wednesday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 50s north, to the lower and middles 60s south.
257 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 High pressure ridge axis losing ground to approaching upper level disturbance this evening.
AND 12Z RUNS) SHOWS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME THAT PRECIP WOULD BE COINCIDENT. TEMPS SHOULD HAVE AMPLE TIME TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THERE AS WELL.
TRIMMED BACK MAX TEMPS ACCORDINGLY TO THE LOWER 60S FOR BPT AND LCH. THIS ALL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. DO TO ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH -10F EARLY THIS EVE UNTIL WIND DIMINISHES. KEPT ACCUMULATION LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
121 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2016 A WEAK TROUGH MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.