Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the same time, the trough over the western U. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with mainly mid to upper 80s for highs, although a few locations may still reach 90 degrees. Overnight lows will also be cooler, dropping into the 60s.
138 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will end this evening with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather is anticipated for the end of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. As high pressure exits to the East, southerly flow is expected to return Saturday afternoon.
Next upper trough approaches the area Friday and swings across Friday evening. Favorable setup for strong winds over western areas especially the Arlington area so have opted to upgrade the High Wind Watch to warning there starting late tomorrow morning. Could also see a few showers mainly over northern parts of the CWA Friday night as the trough swings across. Saturday looking dry and breezy and cooler behind a cool front that will sweep across Friday night.
The center of the ridge will move east into the Great Lakes region thru the day. Expect Sat to be a few degrees warmer as winds become more southerly. That said, the warm front is not expected to lift thru the area until Sat evening. Have trended just slightly warmer than MOS for Sat.
Mid/upper level ridging will hold over the southeast U. today then begin to weaken and shift south on Saturday as troughing moves into the central states. The low level east to northeast flow will persist and should remain weak enough today to allow the west coast sea breeze to develop near the coast during the mid to late afternoon hours.
The synoptic pattern features a weak upper level ridge sliding east while southwesterly flow aloft will bring moisture across the area with warm air advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere producing a few showers this afternoon and evening, but amounts will be very light. Saturday morning a cold front will approach from the northwest and bring showers and a few thunderstorms across northern parts of the forecast area spreading south and east through the afternoon on Saturday and will exit the area by Saturday evening.
The cold front continues to move through Arkansas this morning with drier air slowly filtering in from the north. Dew points are in the mid 50s in the north but still in the lower 70s in the south. High pressure will build into the state today and bring rain chances to an end. However, another cold front will approach from the northwest Saturday evening and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be cooler today in the mid 70s to mid 80s and then tomorrow in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
Elongated upper ridge will slowly weaken today but will remain largely oriented east to west across the southeast US. A surface cold front is located north of the area across TN and northern MS and will slowly move south through today. The front wont make it into our area given the upper ridge. However, there appears to be enough surface convergence along the trough to spark isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in areas west of the Apalachicola and Flint rivers.
1102 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Increasing surface pressure and cooler/drier air will continue to build southward into the region tonight into Friday. Higher level moisture will continue to stream over the area so we should lose the low clouds while maintaining the higher level clouds. That high pressure area will move into the Ohio valley.
A deep, progressive trough currently moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies is our next storm producer.
354 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure across the region early this morning, with temps in the mid 30s across portions of northeast NE and northwest IA.
As with all southeast wind events, the low level inversion in strong warm air advection will limit mixing heights. There is some uncertainty how deep of a potential closed low may develop across central and eastern North Dakota late tonight into Saturday morning which would impact rainfall totals in the deformation zone of the low.
A cold front is on the door step early this morning.
The ridge presently over the Southeast will persist through the period, continuing to suppress most shower activity. High temperatures will remain in the mid-90s despite any showers, though cooling slightly to the low-90s on Saturday.
/issued 920 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ A weak cold front has moved through much of the Mid-South this afternoon and evening. The front has now washed out over the area due to the upper ridge that has been in place. The ridge has weakened some but will continue to remain in place over the region through the early part of the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal, but will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what they have been. The biggest change will be in humidity as northerly winds behind the cold front will bring drier air into the region.
/issued 811 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ True cold front late this evening was located across S OK into N AR but a prefrontal trough has made good progress into our region and this combined with ample lift from an upper level disturbance across SE TX and abundant instability from daytime heating resulted in scattered to numerous thunderstorms earlier today and we are still dealing with the aftermath this convection at this late hour. Overnight low temperatures are in good shape with upper 60s to lower 70s areawide as the true cold front to our north should slowly backdoor itself to near the I-20 corridor of NE LA by 12z Fri.
Otherwise, do expect southeasterly winds to increase through the overnight to keep most temperatures in the low 40s. Better upper level support will come in advance of an upper trough pushing east across the Northern Plains late Friday night into Saturday morning. This system quickly moves eastward toward the Great Lakes area sending a cold front through the area Saturday morning with gusty northwest winds and dry conditions behind it.
234 AM MDT Fri Oct 4 2019 A cold front currently over western Montana will move through eastern Montana this afternoon. An upper trough will follow behind the cold front tonight. The upper level dynamics and moisture with the upper trough are expected to move through southern Montana and Wyoming and lift north across the Dakotas. Northwest winds behind the cold front on Saturday will likely be strong enough for a Lake Wind Advisory over Fort Peck Lake.
/issued 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Cold front continues to move south across the area this afternoon with it currently located from Denver City to Welch to Snyder. Temperatures have remained quite cool behind the front with locations around Muleshoe reporting mid 50's as of early this afternoon with warmer temperatures to the south of the front in the low 80's. Another cold front will be poised to move across the area late Saturday, however guidance indicates that this will be a dry frontal passage.
Although it will feel quite cold relative to the unseasonably warm and humid conditions we had the past week, the lows tonight will only be about 5 degrees below normal for early October. Relatively cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday night as surface ridging extends from the Great Lakes region southwest into MO on Friday. GKS Showers and storms will return to parts of the area on Saturday as low-mid level warm air advection and upper level divergence increases ahead of an upper level trough/low moving eastward through the northern Plains. Will see at least slightly warmer high temperatures on Saturday with southerly surface winds. A cold front will drop southeastward through our forecast area Saturday afternoon and night.
146 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east on Saturday.
1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 The stratus cloud layer over the region will continue to dissipate as large-scale subsidence increases in response to the upper-level ridging over the Northern Plains. Late morning into the afternoon, a weak cold front will dry out the low levels and bring a shift to breezy northwesterly winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph.
Area of low pressure tracks through the forecast area tomorrow, which will lead to shifting winds as it makes its way through. Avery A weak upper ridge over the area today will give way to a strong upper low over the Pacific NW through Saturday.
410 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east on Saturday.
Low-level moisture will be on the increase Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will pushing into central KS/northwest OK early in the day.
1240 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will prevail until a cold front passes through the area late Friday into early Saturday.
308 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Upper level ridging over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks was keeping the weather quiet across the Ozarks. Temperatures fell into the low to mid 50s early this morning, making conditions feel more fall like. A return of southerly breezes will temps up warmer to the west with mid and upper 50s to 60 expected. However, a cold front will approach from the northwest, triggering showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon or evening.
As is usually the case in this regime, the big question will be when will the low clouds and fog start to break up which most models have by late this morning to around noon.
Winds will become calm and then start to increase from the southeast as the high shifts east. Still, believe there will be breaks allowing temps to fall to near freezing in most areas tonight. Friday night an upper low will be approaching from the west and will begin to bring some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region as well. The cool and active pattern remains in place as the next upper low moves into the region. Cold front pushing in during Sat aftn. The upper low will lift towards the Great Lakes during the day on Sun, with some wrap around pcpn a distinct possibility over mainly NW MN. These increasing winds will help push out the lower clouds.
1137 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Much cooler temperatures and drier conditions will continue this evening and into the weekend, bringing Fall-like conditions to the region. High pressure centered over the northern plains will track into the northern Great Lakes region tomorrow and keep cooler and dry weather in the area through the period. As the high pressure continues to shift to the east this weekend, a mid level trough and associated sfc front will push toward the area. This front will slide through quickly and high pressure will once again return with dry weather and temperatures around normal. Winds will initially be N/NW at 3-8kt tonight, then will back to E/NE on Friday as high pressure tracks from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
/Issued 948 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Cold front has cleared the forecast area this evening, and will remove the evening pops in southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Thus will leave the low pops as is for late tonight in parts of northeast Oklahoma.
1107 PM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Upper-level ridging was over the CWA per water vapor images and the RAP model analysis. As an upper-level trough over the West Coast approaches the CWA tonight and Friday, a strong low-level jet stream (up to 50 kt) will develop over the CWA. The upper trough will swing through the CWA Friday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with some snow to the Black Hills and northeastern WY (amounts 1 inch or less). Strong northwest winds will develop late Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front as 850-mb winds reach 50 kt along with modest cold advection.
216 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 The dry cold front has cleared our area leaving a north breeze and mainly clear skies. After a night of pleasant temperatures tonight, temperatures will rebound on Saturday with some highs getting into the 90s as upper ridging builds in ahead of our highly anticipated fall-ushering system. Upper ridging will quickly slide off to the east by Saturday night.
Forecast confidence is medium to high: High pressure will be overhead today, bringing some sunshine back to southern Wisconsin. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of approaching low pressure. The low will deepen to 987 mb Sat nt over Ontario. A cold front and the srn portion of the upper trough axis will follow for Sat evening with showers occurring early.
234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will dominate central and southeast Illinois today and tonight. A cold front will approach the region Saturday bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms.
1002 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east on Saturday.
Meanwhile, farther east a cold front has dropped to the I-20 corridor with cooler temperatures filtering into the Permian Basin. An upper trough will bring westerly flow to the central U.
These showers are due to moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Narda, interacting with the large scale trough sweeping across the area today. As the trough pushes eastward, weak zonal flow under the influence of a large scale ridge will move over the Southwest U. A trough of low pressure moving through the Great Basin today will bring southwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH this afternoon. This trough will continue to draw moisture northward across eastern Arizona today with scattered showers and thunderstorms will last through today.
Despite the lower sun angle, the stratus is fairly thin, so still expecting it to break up this afternoon as mixing deepens. As a deepening trough approaches from the west, strengthening southerly flow this evening will draw moisture northward. Southern MN may break out into some sun later in the day and rebound into the lower 60s. The majority of the longer term looks to be quiet across the area as we initially see the large scale pattern de-amplify into the first part of the week, then see things become highly amplified as a deep trough develops to our west by mid to late week.
A couple of upper troughs will cross the area today and Saturday for a chance of showers.
and Saturday High pressure was centered over MN early this morning. Widespread cloud cover persisted beneath the ridge, though there were some large breaks over WI. Another cool day is on tap, with highs only in the lower to middle 50s. Clouds will return to the region tonight, ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the Northern Plains. A 35 to 45 knot low-level jet will develop in advance of a cold front on Saturday.
500 AM MDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Upper ridge sits across the northern Great Plains and a deep trough is pushing into the Pacific NW region. Upper flow is southwesterly across the intermountain region, which is now pushing into the CWA on the backside of the ridge. A cold front will then cross the CWA in the late afternoon through the evening. As the low pressure system pushes east of the CWA, wrap around precip will affect the CWA late tonight. Rain will change to snow across the highest parts of the Black Hills, possibly resulting in minor accumulations.
Showers look to become isolated in nature in much of western Montana during this morning, but a low pressure circulation is forecast to develop and focus precipitation to southern Idaho County, Lemhi County, and southwest Montana through this afternoon. The cold front accompanying the trough that is currently moving through the region will lower snow levels down to around 5000 feet by this evening. Accumulations are expected in the higher terrain and may briefly accumulate on the passes of Lemhi County and southwest Montana. Behind the cold front, showers will briefly decrease for most during the evening. This flow pattern is favorable for continuous precipitation in the high terrain of north-central Idaho and northwest/west-central Montana with showers in the valleys.
An area of high pressure will maintain a light to gentle east-northeast breeze over the local Atlantic waters.
/22/ Today and tonight: Temperatures will be cooler today but still much above normal. Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold front near the Highway 82 corridor. The weak cold front will continue drifting south through our CWA today and during peak heating, help develop additional showers and thunderstorms; mainly south of Interstate 20. The cooler air in the wake of the cold front and the cloud cover associated with the afternoon convection is expected to hold afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The cold front will continue south tonight. Rain chances early this evening will be confined to the Highway 84 corridor until the cold front shifts south of our CWA. The cooler and drier air in the wake of the cold front will allow for temperatures to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s Saturday morning.
554 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure over the Grt Lks will build southeast into Pennsylvania today and Saturday.
The dry cold front has cleared our area leaving a north breeze and mainly clear skies. After a night of pleasant temperatures tonight, temperatures will rebound on Saturday with some highs getting into the 90s as upper ridging builds in ahead of our highly anticipated fall-ushering system. Upper ridging will quickly slide off to the east by Saturday night.
1042 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 The cold front is now to the south of the forecast area with cooler and drier air advecting into the southern Appalachians. The previous forecast is in pretty good shape with highs today around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, however, high temperatures will still be around 10-15 degrees above normal with values ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 63 87 64 / 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 60 85 62 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 88 60 86 62 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 75 58 / 0 0 10 20.
But it will feel a bit drier and somewhat cooler. What has been holding precip back a bit is the upper level ridge that has been anchored over the southern states for the last two weeks allowing the region to dry out.
634 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure across the region early this morning, with temps in the mid 30s across portions of northeast NE and northwest IA.
332 AM MDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Upper ridge sits across the northern Great Plains and a deep trough is pushing into the Pacific NW region. Upper flow is southwesterly across the intermountain region, which is now pushing into the CWA on the backside of the ridge. A cold front will then cross the CWA in the late afternoon through the evening. As the low pressure system pushes east of the CWA, wrap around precip will affect the CWA late tonight. Rain will change to snow across the highest parts of the Black Hills, possibly resulting in minor accumulations.
Temperatures will remain cool on Friday, but warmer temperatures will move into the region over the weekend.
625 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Upper level ridging over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks was keeping the weather quiet across the Ozarks. Temperatures fell into the low to mid 50s early this morning, making conditions feel more fall like. A return of southerly breezes will allow temperatures to be warmer to the west with mid and upper 50s to 60 expected. However, a cold front will approach from the northwest, triggering showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon or evening.
557 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will dominate central and southeast Illinois today and tonight. A cold front will approach the region Saturday bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms.
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east on Saturday.
An upper ridge is forecast to build over the area this weekend. The warming associated with large scale subsidence along with east to northeast wind flow at ridge level will likely propel daytime high temperatures above normal for both coastal areas as well as the interior valleys.
This is out ahead of our next upstream mid/upper low/trough now crossing central Idaho. A 100kt jet streak is in the process of rounding the base of the trough, which will result in a stronger/negatively tilted upper trough when it arrives later tonight into Saturday morning. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow ensues as a departing closed upper low exits into Ontario.
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 High pressure across the region early this morning, with temps in the mid 30s across portions of northeast NE and northwest IA.
Concur with NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic output that subsidence will increase over the CWA/MSA later tonight/Saturday as the upper trough moves slowly EWD and dissipates/weakens, and as an upper ridge builds from the west.
945 AM MDT Fri Oct 4 2019 A cold front currently over western Montana will move through eastern Montana this afternoon. An upper trough will follow behind the cold front tonight. The upper level dynamics and moisture with the upper trough are expected to move through southern Montana and Wyoming and lift north across the Dakotas. Northwest winds behind the cold front on Saturday will likely be strong enough for a Lake Wind Advisory over Fort Peck Lake.
Upper wave will shift into the northern/central Plains on Saturday with cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma by early afternoon.
Rain showers will redevelop or move into the area as the upper low swings through across the Devils Lake basin and into the northern valley and NW MN.
An upper level trough of low pressure is moving through western Montana and central Idaho this afternoon, resulting in showery and cloudy conditions.
1000 AM MDT Fri Oct 4 2019 Fog has increased across the NE zones but a cold front is moving in, so this shouldn't last into tonight. TFJ A cold front currently over western Montana will move through eastern Montana this afternoon. An upper trough will follow behind the cold front tonight. The upper level dynamics and moisture with the upper trough are expected to move through southern Montana and Wyoming and lift north across the Dakotas. Northwest winds behind the cold front on Saturday will likely be strong enough for a Lake Wind Advisory over Fort Peck Lake.
An upper level trough traveling across the Pacific NW brought light precipitation for most of the area with less than 0. The trough is heading into Idaho and scattered mountain showers will taper off as the day progresses and end overnight. Temperatures will be similar or a tad cooler than yesterday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in the mountains and in the mid 50s to mid 60s in the lower elevations.
But, clouds will be spreading back in later as the next low pressure system to the west begins to approach. The low level jet will increase to about 40kt on Saturday, pulling moisture and warmer air quickly into the region ahead of the trailing cold front.
WAA ahead of that trough is resulting in enough lift and bringing in enough low-level moisture to keep showers across most of the area through this afternoon. A cold front ahead of the aforementioned trough will move west to east during the day tomorrow, which will bring the next best chance of showers and thunderstorms primarily during the morning hours, potentially lingering into the early afternoon for parts of east central KS. Temperatures ahead of the front are expected to reach seasonal values in the low 70s in east central KS, while north central KS should stay a few degrees cooler in the upper 60s with the front passing through earlier. All areas should dry out by Saturday evening with the flow briefly becoming zonal as a broad trough moves through the northern US and flattens a ridge just to the south.
316 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2019 (Tonight and Saturday) The weak cold front that moved through much of the area overnight and early this morning continues to weaken across far southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. (Saturday Night through Friday) The next (and stronger) cold front will bring a first taste of fall weather to our area.