Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With high pressure wedging itself in across the western Great Lakes, we should see a clear to partly cloudy sky followed by an increase in especially mid and high clouds for the southwest half to third of the CWA.
Valley locations in Wayne,Whitley, Clay, Johnson, and Breathitt counties have already begun to fall into the 30s, while the surrounding ridges are still in the 40s and 50s. Fairly poor moisture recovery is anticipated on ridges tonight as we should maintain our gradient through the night. The eastern valleys will likely decouple, setting up a large ridge to valley split tonight. Ridges may stay in the mid to upper 40s tonight, while valley locations fall to near 30. While it may take a bit of time to moisten up the low levels, it appears that good lift should arrive after midnight with a band of widespread rainfall pushing across the area.
922 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather tonight.
419 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2017 High pressure continues to control conditions over northern Alabama and Mississippi.
Yesterdays active cold front now deep into the gulf waters, and continue to see some convection in vicinity of boundary. Extreme dewpoint gradient now in place inland ranging from the low 30s over central Louisiana to near 60 at the coast.
With llvl gradient and winds aloft on Thursday expected to be similar to this past aftn, went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for the wind prone areas.
637 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2017 The 00z sounding continues to show a stable layer in the low levels below 700mb.
706 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather tonight.
A cold frontal passage will bring a wind shift to the north with the main post frontal cooling holding off until Thursday night.
827 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 Zonal flow is in place aloft over the region as a rather weak cold front moves southeast across the northern part of the peninsula this evening. A weak cold front will dissipate over the region tonight with high pressure then building into the southeast through the end of the week.
Instability and shear will be modest with 600-1200 j/kg moving over the area during the afternoon as a cold front moves into the area.
Dry column with confluence aloft will maintain no saturation or precipitation tonight with surface ridging nosing into the state Thursday morning. The high wind warning will remain in effect for all areas through 7 PM. Polar cyclone spinning over Hudson Bay this afternoon is progged to become a stable feature for the balance of the forecast period. 850mb temperatures will settle between -5C and -10C this evening as the wave overhead drags the cooler profile southward. Shear max coming onshore in the Pac NW this afternoon will race across the Lower Peninsula on Thursday, the attendant tightening of the height gradient is modeled to elicit a decent but short-lived shot of isentropic ascent and mid-level fgen.
This will quickly end our persistent, brisk cyclonic flow around the broad Hudson Bay mean trough and replace it with a warm front into the MO Valley. This will push the warm front into MO and IL by midday with deep cool advection and temps continuing to cool day to day. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ Canadian high pressure at the surface and a Northwest flow aloft will generally keep cooler temps across the region.
Surface obs show the warm front in that general area.
Areas will see cooler highs tomorrow, except for portions of southwest NEB where highs will be similar. Latest water vapor imagery shows broad west northwest flow across the western CONUS and a trough extending south into the Great Lakes and Northeast US with a closed low over extreme northern Ontario/far southern Hudson Bay. Modest height rises will occur over the Pacific northwest and northern Intermountain west over the next 24 hours as a ridge builds. The closed low will move slowly into extreme western Quebec and trough amplification is expected in the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley late tomorrow. Late tonight through late tomorrow morning a weak cold front will push southward with the front anticipated to become stationary northwest-southeast across southwest NEB tomorrow.
Tonight and Thursday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a tight pressure gradient remains in place between strong low pressure over southern Hudson Bay and high pressure across the Plains.
This low level moisture will remain shallow which will be one factor in limiting our measurable precipitation chances. A cold front will back door into the area Thursday evening but will possess little lift with it.
An area of low pressure to the south will help push some warmer mid level air into South Dakota tonight. Arctic high pressure will drop down into the Plains on Thursday.
615 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 Dry and windy conditions are expected today as strong high pressure moves in.
635 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 Dry high pressure moving into the forecast area from the west will be over the area late tonight and early Thursday. The high will move off the southeast coast Thursday afternoon.
Right now, feel the areas with the highest potential of snow would fall along a Huron to Pipestone, Marshall to Jackson.
1049 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 A steep pressure difference between a storm over south-central Canada and high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead to strong and gusty winds through late tonight.
At the surface a cold front will be just south of the region with high pressure over the Southeast. Lows in the low to mid 50s are expected elsewhere.
308 PM MST Wed Mar 8 2017 A weak upper level ridge will be over the state through Thursday bringing continued NW flow. Moisture over the ridge will help to keep mid level clouds over the region with stability above mountain top that may lower enough to develop a weak mountain wave by the late morning.
The low conditions will be slow to improve on Thursday.
This will maintain existing warm advection, with high temperatures rising into the lower 70s south of the warm front, with values in the lower 60s expected north of the frontal boundary, generally north and south of Highway 36.
Surface winds will be southeast to southwest 5-15 kts except 15-30 kts over the higher terrain.
Only some minor changes were made to the low temperature grid, mainly in extreme Southwest Arkansas where dry air combined with lack of clouds have allowed for rapid cooling. IFR cigs with patchy FG should develop after 09Z across lower E TX/Wcntrl LA, spreading N across the remaining E TX terminals through 12Z as a warm front lifts N overnight. Isolated -SHRA may redevelop late tonight across portions of E TX/N LA in VC of the warm front, but given the isolated nature of any development, have omitted mention in the 00Z TAF's attm. /issued 415 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2017/ Southerly return flow has given way to a very warm and springlike day with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.
High pressure and continued weak offshore flow will persist through Thursday with above normal high temperatures.
/issued 318 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2017/ (Tonight and Thursday) Moisture return and warmer weather has quickly returned to the area today. Dewpoint values as of 2 PM this afternoon range from the low 50s to around 60(KJCT) across the CWA. Low clouds will also return to the area, along with the potential for patchy fog developing after midnight, mainly southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line where the highest moisture content will reside. The warmer temperatures will be along and north of a San Angelo to Clyde line where afternoon sun is expected to aid in warming.
648 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 A steep pressure difference between a storm over south-central Canada and high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead to strong and gusty winds through late tonight.
547 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2017 The High Wind Warning was allowed to expire at 5 pm, as winds continue to ease late this afternoon. HRRR holds on to the high wind potential a little longer than 23z in the east while the RAP tends to suggest warning winds would for the most part be done. So expect the winds to diminish as the evening wears on with high pressure nudging closer. The ridge axis is proggd to be across the state in a NW/se oriented fashion around 06z.
Fairly poor moisture recovery is anticipated on ridges tonight as we should maintain our gradient through the night. The eastern valleys will likely decouple, setting up a large ridge to valley split tonight. Ridges may stay in the mid to upper 40s tonight, while valley locations fall to near 30. While it may take a bit of time to moisten up the low levels, it appears that good lift should arrive after midnight with a band of widespread rainfall pushing across the area.
Cold front entering southeast Ga (as evident with dew point analysis) will sweep southeast across the area tonight. Winds becoming north to northeast around 10 knots overnite as a weakening cold front moves across the waters.
Brownsville radar currently shows some fading convection across the far northwest area of Deep South Texas with some additional activity just south of the lower Texas Gulf waters. The weak easterly synoptic flow is being supported by high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley, which will shift farther east by Thursday, reorienting pressure over the Gulf such that winds will shift to southeast. Ahead of that, however, mid level energy associated with an inverted trough over Baja California will break off and move east across the Southwestern United States Thursday morning.
415 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2017 Southerly return flow has given way to a very warm and springlike day with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.
/issued 317 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2017/ High pressure over the Mid South this afternoon will slide east tonight with return flow setting up over the area. This should provide for a warmer night with lows mainly in the 40s. Most locations will see high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
1040 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 High pressure south of the area through Thursday.
High pressure continues to control conditions over northern Alabama and Mississippi.
High pressure centered to the south of Utah will gradually shift east through the weekend bringing an increasingly strong southwest flow aloft to the area.
Saturday should be mostly dry as high pressure builds in to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs today ahead of the boundary will be in the 85 to 90 degree range, and tomorrow behind the boundary in the lower and middle 80s.
328 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Friday and Saturday will feature cooler temperatures with less humidity than recent days under a mix of sun and clouds.
Compact upper low over Vancouver Island this morning will move slowly east along the WA/Canadian border today, and will be over the ID/Canadian border Saturday. Associated upper trough and cooler air will overspread eastern Oregon today and Saturday, and western Idaho tonight and Saturday. Weak cold front will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms late today to northeast Valley County, ID.
245 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Warm advection across the high plains is supporting the development of scattered storms in northern NE. The low level jet is currently focused over western NE and will continue to support the MCS, but it is not as strong over south central NE. With the region still under the influence of the Great Lakes high pressure and possible cloud cover highs should stay in the 80s today.
This profile corroborates current mean layer streamline analyses which depict a well stacked anticyclone across the Western North Atlantic. Infrared satellite imagery hints at an inverted low level trough near the Cay Sal Bank. This trough is collocated with the leading edge of a moisture max evident on loops from MIMIC TPW.
Forecast confidence is moderate A deep trough of low pressure drifting slowly southeast across the area today will provide the focus for a band of light showers to drop pass through the area this morning into the afternoon. Model soundings show us drying out by mid afternoon with subsidence and high pressure building in by this evening. Highs should reach the lower 70s west of Madison. Medium Low level anticyclone drifts east with evidence of waa returning during the afternoon as 850/925 flow becomes more southwest.
Instability of the day may generate showers - mainly in the far eastern counties and in the NW as the upper trough and cold front move down. A cooler Friday night is in store with significantly drier air settling over much of the area.
Brief MVFR conditions may develop across portions of the lower Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands late tonight into early Fri morning with some low level moisture across the area. VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through Friday as the 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas. Have opted to adjust the high temps for Friday up a degree or two in some locations.
405 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Dry and hot conditions will persist across the region again today as high pressure centered over southern Arizona keeps the monsoon at bay.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA today through tonight before it begins to weaken. Saturday as a weak 500mb low/inverted trough across the north central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon moves westward towards the lower Texas coast Sat afternoon. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the coastal waters tonight into Saturday and isolated convection will develop offshore the lower TX coast as a result.
1220 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A surface cold front will continue to push well south of the CWA through the evening hours as a complex of thunderstorms ahead of the boundary enters southern Missouri. Storm chances along this boundary will decrease through the evening hours as high pressure settles further south.
637 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and tonight with another round of thunderstorms. A slow moving cold front well w of the border is forecast to slide across the region today into tonight.
High temperatures across the interior will gradually moderate over the weekend as an upper level trough develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. A few of the high resolution models, namely the HRRR and ARW, showed winds becoming southerly nearshore this morning. 24HR trend monitor indicated many sites a few degrees warmer than this time last night. Warm weather conditions will continue over the weekend, but moderate slightly as an upper level trough develops offshore the Pacific Northwest coast.
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 An upper level ridge centered over the Southwest U. Unfortunately, the higher dewpoints still mean that heat indices will reach 100-105 across just about all of the region during the peak heating hours.
High temperatures will be near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon with a broad trough across the southern U. As this trough moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue, this helps to builds the ridge into the northern Plains. The trough continues to dig into the ern U. 12z Wed with the ridge amplifying further in the plains which stays strong and amplified 12z Thu. SW winds 10 to 20 knots will be northwesterly at 10-20 knots late afternoon as a trough slides across Lake Superior and the Upper Great Lakes. High pressure will briefly build across Lake Superior Friday afternoon into Saturday bringing relatively light winds and generally calm conditions.
106 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will move across the region Friday into Friday night. another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected as a cold front will cross the region. It'll be another hot day especially across interior Downeast where the cold front won't cross until late in the day. The cold front will stall along the Downeast coast Friday night, while an upper level disturbance approaches northwest areas. High pressure then builds across the region Saturday night with partly cloudy skies.
527 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. There will also be weak upper troughing over the area. We followed the high-resolution models with the placement of highest pops. Leaned toward the higher maximum temperature guidance based on recent verification. Followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature forecast. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico during much of the medium-range period. The models showed some troughing in the forecast area. The models indicated upper ridging early but troughing along the east coast by the middle of the week.
Synopsis: A heat dome exists across the the desert southwest while a cool core trough runs from British COlumbia through Ontario. This morning: The boundary between cool air to the northeast and the warm air to the southwest will continue to retreat back to the northeast as the ridge to the west amplifies. Patchy fog will be possible in limited areas tonight due to the incoming warmer stable air aloft, the previous evening rain raised dewpoints, and lower surface rain cooled surface temperatures with incoming clearing in the skies. This afternoon: Axis of the weak ridge to the west will move across northeast Montana providing a stable atmosphere with warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Friday night through Saturday morning: Ridge axis will exit the area allowing for cooler air aloft to move in and begin destabilizing the atmosphere.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 70s near Lake Michigan to around 80 south of Route 24.
The cold front will move over the area and may produce additional spotty rain showers. Temps during the day on Fri are expected to range in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will build over the region through the weekend keeping most of the area dry.
/issued 246 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the U. Today marks day 12 of KMAF's 38-day climatological peak, but a little relief may be on the way over the next few days as the ridge dislodges from its current position.
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and tonight with another round of thunderstorms. A slow moving cold front well w of the border is forecast to slide across the region today into tonight.
155 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016 A cold front will move into the Ohio Valley Friday initiating showers and thunderstorms. Convergence ahead of an approaching upper trough will contribute to shower and thunderstorm development from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Region, this pattern persisting through this upcoming weekend. The actual surface cold front is well upstream of the forecast area attm. However, thunderstorms were abundant across the entire region per outflow boundaries which continue to get generated from MCS features developing and moving downstream into the high CAPE airmass over the southeastern CONUS.
Tomorrow a ridge of high pressure will weaken slightly but generally there will not be much change to the temperatures. Inland temperatures will cool back to near seasonal averages over the weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the West Coast.
645 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A weak cold front will drift slowly southeast toward the Ohio River today. High pressure will build into the region on Saturday.
1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 An upper level short wave trof was dropping southeastward through the forecast area this afternoon. Meanwhile, a series of surface trofs were moving across the area as the vertically stacked system that was overhead yesterday continues to pull of to the northeast. The upper level trof will slowly move over northwest Wisconsin tonight as the aforementioned system exits. However, another upper level trof is progged to clip the Canadian border in the afternoon.
The mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge axis across north-central Florida will lift north through Saturday. Upper level energy and a ribbon of high moisture content (PWATs over 2 inches) on the western periphery of the mean ridge will continue to fuel scattered early morning convection across the eastern Gulf coast region. Convection will fade inland through midnight as min temps fall into the low/mid 70s with muggy overnight conditions. but with less coverage across as drier air moves across the area on the southern side of the mean layer ridge axis. 8 inches with the higher amounts across SE Ga.
On Friday a closed upper level low arrives from the Pacific Northwest. The closed upper low just about stalls and fills in place over Glacier NP through Saturday morning.
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just north of the PAH forecast area.
Will keep the highest pops close to the cooler temps aloft up N. Saturday looks like it should be more comfortable but additional showers could pop up with the base of the longwave trough swinging in.
341 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016 A slow moving cold front over southeast Ontario and Quebec this morning will slowly sag into the North Country this afternoon through Saturday accompanied by a few showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
432 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 The synoptic features across the region include a weak inverted low level trough across the northwest Bahamas and an upper level low centered just south of Cuba with recent water vapor imagery clearly depicting this feature. The aforementioned upper level low south of Cuba is forecast to retrograde west today into Saturday and the moisture surge across the Straits today is forecast to exit the region into the eastern Gulf later on Saturday.
-Wolcott- 157 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper level high pressure will remain in place across the area through this weekend. With the dry trend continuing, the main concern is the development and strengthening of an upper low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. As this intensifies and pushes against the upper high pressure over our area it creates a tighter pressure gradient aloft.
Northern California under westerly upper level flow between high pressure over the southwest U. and a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. The increased onshore flow combined a digging of an upper trough over the west coast and associated airmass cooling will bring a significant drop in temperatures on Saturday.
Surface analysis from 11PM EDT revealed a weak trough situated across the southeast, extending down across the northwestern portion of the forecast area and into the far western Florida Panhandle. This is in response to a broad trough currently traversing the region at upper levels. The more widespread coverage of storms today will hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with heat indices generally ranging from 95-100F.
Latest predawn satellite/RAP analysis had a flat subtropical ridge extended from the Southern Plains through the Southwest Conus. while some troughiness was noted over the Mississippi Valley. This was associated with a series of short waves moving around the subtropical ridge. Over our area a weak mid level trough axis was noted near southeast Mississippi.
Temps running upwards of 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time and will result in highs today topping the 100 degree mark across much of the Central Valley.
243 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will bring slow cooling and a slightly deeper marine layer through the weekend with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending into the western valleys. high pressure aloft over the central and and southern plains will strengthen and expand westward.
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A weak cold front will drift slowly southeast toward the Ohio River today. High pressure will build into the region on Saturday.