Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is not a certainty, but we'd like to go ahead and insert a mention of patchy fog late tonight over the lowlands. /issued 129 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ Upper ridge will give way to next upper trough that moves onto the West Coast early Sunday. As this trough moves east it develops into a cut off low that rolls along the US/Mex border. should lift northward but will keep temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
537 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
915 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NNW OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH.
525 PM MST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE. PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS PROGGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BROADEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NATION/S MIDSECTION TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ RETURN FLOW WAS WELL UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT THAT HAS SINCE WASHED OUT NEAR I-20.
657 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL TEETER ON FRAGILE LOW CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING AND EXTENT REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHICH WOULD KEEP MINS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 20S/AROUND 20 DEGREES. BUT ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING TOMORROW. SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
542 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Very dry air has pushed into the area behind a cold front with RH values in the teens to 20s this afternoon. Winds have been gusting from 15 to 20 mph across mostly the eastern CWA, with lesser speeds in the west as high pressure has built in. Very mild conditions are expected on Sunday night with surface winds continuing to be gusty ahead of the low pressure system.
914 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
710 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE. PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS PROGGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BROADEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NATION/S MIDSECTION TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MON WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS. AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OVER NRN MEX BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE SE SLOWLY BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF REGION AND WEAKEN. AS THE TROUGH PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE AREA. 09 A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO GUST UP TO 15-17KTS.
THIS LOW STRATUS WILL THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN OK BY 18Z TOMORROW AND CENTRAL OK TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
535 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WAS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST. TO THE LOW 50S SOUTHWEST. WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID STATE TODAY WITH THE QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS ARE PUSHING PRECIP FURTHER WEST WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FOR MID WEEK.
1019 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. DESPITE A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FABULOUS THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND RIDGING ALOFT.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING AROUND THE TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
646 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
400 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
AND HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER SHORT TERM HIRES GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND HIGHS.
COOLER AIR WAS MOVING IN WITH BRISK NW WINDS. BUT WE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN AND BRINGS A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER, WITH MAINLY JUST A MIX OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AOA 10K FT.
As the ridge moves east winds will become southeasterly and bring some waa into the area. Temps will be slightly below normal for first part of March, but the sunshine will likely make it feel a little warmer. A warm front associated with a developing weather system in the plains will nose toward the CWA this afternoon, which will cause an increase in clouds over the area. Trick with the majority of the forecast is that the system is tracking further to the north and leaving much of Central Illinois in the warmer air before midnight, keeping the southern half of the state in rain. Temperatures lingering right around or above freezing through the overnight will end up with some partial melting as well.
317 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 Winds will increase out of the south today as high pressure slides to our east. Highs should therefore make the lower 60s. In contrast, areas of the eastern Ozarks should see highs in the lower 50s due to more in the way of cloud cover and weaker warm air advection.
/ISSUED 452 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING. COLD FRONT MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED NEAR A BASTROP TO SAN ANTONIO TO EAGLE PASS LINE. TEMPS HAVE SPIKED INTO THE MID 80S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. COOLER TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS.
/ISSUED 916 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
STRATUS LAYER BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN BKN-OVC MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SFC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 945 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BATTLE THE COOLER AIRMASS AND EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 65-70 DEG RANGE FOR SE GA AND 70-75 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA AND UPPER 70S SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET TO GIVE WAY TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING.
The weak trough continues to push east also with winds shifting to the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
THEY SHOW THAT A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA. THEY EACH WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA, BOTH BEING DRY AND MAINLY JUST A WIND SHIFT.
S/W TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS BECOME N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TONIGHT WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOW 50S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE ERN CONUS THU-THU NIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY FRI.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
351 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 AT H5 RIDGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANNA AS SEEN IN WV. TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
1137 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
946 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 THE RELATIVELY FLAT AND DIRTY WESTERN RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE FELT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. THE RIDGE REBOUNDS LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS WED NIGHT. MODELS THEN PROMISE A BIG CHANGE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON SUN. UNTIL THE LARGER TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON MON. AND THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
328 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FROM WESTERN GLACIER TO WESTERN LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR FROM THE US/CAN BORDER TO HELENA BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TO BETTER MATCH LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.
1243 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016 SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN EARLIER PROGGED. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG. THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.
This band of rain was situated along the cold front, and models generally diminish the rain or push it out of the area by around 12Z. Highs will range from the mid 60s north to the low-mid 70s in the eastern Florida Big Bend.
425 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS SRN WI TODAY.
MODELS CONVERGING ON SOLN WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH IOWA FROM NW TO SE.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD QUICKLY AND NOW WAS THE DELINEATING LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND NO RAIN. INITIALLY HELD ONTO THE LOWER CLOUDS LONGER OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. 75 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS HIGH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TONIGHT THE THUMB AREA MAY SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK RESPONSE IN THE FLOW COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A windy day is expected on Wednesday as the high slides east. Underneath high pressure. high pressure will slide east southeast through the region with some high clouds continuing to move overhead.
343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM. EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING MONTANA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
A thermal ridge will extend across all of W TX and SE NM helping to boost temperatures well into the 80's and even 90's this afternoon.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPIRALING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE HIGH CENTER QUICKLY BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN OUT OF THE PLAINS.
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALSO IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALREADY NOTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY FROM THE WEST WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL AND STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCALES.
1121 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 Much cooler temperatures and gusty northwest winds made for a rather chilly day across the region today. However, a clipper system approaching the region and associated pressure falls across the High Plains will have winds veering around to more southwesterly by Wednesday morning.
404 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
/ISSUED 842 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. /ISSUED 202 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ THE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN COOL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO OK. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW.
100 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK.
1126 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SOUTH OF ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FOR MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT CAUSES SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGHS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
236 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
1140 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 811 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT, THE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTED PORTIONS OF NORTH AL HAVE CONGEALED INTO A QLCS AND MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AL/GA. WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TEMPERATURE TREND AND WIND SPEEDS. 77 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
944 PM PST TUE MAR 1 2016 A low pressure system will bring more rain, snow, and gusty winds tonight.
1115 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 /06Z TAFS/ Winds will be the main impact Wednesday as a tight pressure gradient develops between high pressure to the east and a lee trough to the west. Gusty south winds expected Wednesday, however, as high pressure moves east and a lee trough develops. /issued 324 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Cold front has pushed across all of West Central Texas, leaving slightly cooler conditions and gusty winds in its wake.
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH EAST IDAHO THIS EVENING.
1133 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH THE HIGH AND IS EVIDENCED BY THE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH AND THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. CLEAR SKIES AND THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE.
Dry conditions are expected through this evening as the core of high pressure migrates east into the Tennessee Valley.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING LIGHT STEADY RAIN MAINLY IN DOUGLAS, COOS AND MAYBE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CURRY COUNTY.
1125 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT TRENDS AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
A LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THE MET SEEMS TOO LOW. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS WILL DRIFT NWD THRU THE DAY. SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS N. GENTLE TO MODERATE W/SW BREEZE WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE TODAY AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS DRIFTS INTO NRN BAHAMAS/S FL PENINSULA.
700 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 FOR TODAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING AND STRONG FORCING AND INSTABILITY I HAD TO PUT THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE WORDING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY.
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH IS KEEPING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAS LED TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. SO A BIT COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST.
The large trough axis that was shaping up overnight will begin to push out into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK RIDGE.
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER.
Winds will become elevated and gusty out of the northwest to north later this morning as a cold front moves into the area.
AND THEN A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.
925 AM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
855 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION. ALLOWING A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
READINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS OF 16Z. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AROUND TUCSON AND POINTS WEST.
1246 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
The limiting factors for severe weather will be instability -- if no sun breaks out in these areas, surface based convection will be unlikely -- and timing; whether or not convection can develop before the low pushes out of our forecast area this afternoon. Despite cooler temperatures, RH values will bottom out in the 20 to 30 percent range across the southwestern half of the CWA, and may fall to at least 30 percent CWA-wide. Cooler temperatures are still anticipated this weekend as an upper level trough digs into the central Plains and allows cool Canadian air to filter into the forecast area.
730 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A VERY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY AS MODERATE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.
BUT AS WINDS STEADILY VEER THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS NOW SURGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
638 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND HAS PUSHED INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH A MUCH COOLER DAY. FOR THE 00Z RUN HAS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAS BEEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. BUT LOOKING FOR SOME MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BALANCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT RACES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
USED THE LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING THE HIGHER POPS.
1101 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
927 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES. LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/IF NOT MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE VERY WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN FORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO ROTATE SWD. AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO HELP USHER NOTICEABLY COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SUN INTO MON.