Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
534 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Pleasant conditions are expected this afternoon through the Overnight hours as mid level ridging persists ahead of a strong system across Arizona. This will occur as the storm system and low pressure develops and moves into the area. The actual cold front will not push through until late Tuesday night therefore lingering showers will occur Tuesday evening.
835 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2016 clearing skies and much cooler temperatures are expected tonight after Mondays cold front. The Pacific trof and cold front that moved into AZ Monday was a quick mover and already over western New Mexico this evening. In its wake, much warmer temperatures aloft and atmospheric subsidence will preclude any clouds and showers the remainder of tonight.
25 inch which is in the lowest 10 percent for this date. A few of the normally colder spots across the Nature Coast could fall to around freezing, but durations should remain less than 2 hours. Elsewhere, lows are generally expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s central inland areas to around 50 to the lower 50s along the coast from around Tampa Bay southward. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to climb into the middle to upper 70s, except a few degrees cooler close to the coast where an afternoon sea breeze is expected shifting winds back to northwest to north.
Mesonet sites around Victoria show readings in the lower 60s. Water vapor imagery shows the short wave trough over the Four Corners region with downstream cirrus shield from West Texas into northern Mexico. An area of low pressure over the central high plains will deepen tonight with the approach of the upper trough. Expect the low level jet to increase to 30-35 knots by 06Z Tuesday. As the low level jet provides an influx of higher moisture, stratus layer should form over the Coastal Bend and eastern Brush Country by 06Z with MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet expected. With the low level jet in place, mentioned low level wind shear during the overnight hours for all TAFs.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 20s in the Minnesota Arrowhead to the low to mid 30s south. Tuesday will be a period of transition, as the next low pressure system moves eastward through the Red River Valley and into Minnesota. The highest amounts will be in the western portion of the Northland, toward Brainerd.
The first will approach overnight, breaking the upper level ridge regimen experienced over the weekend. An attendant cold front will come through Tuesday morning, creating windy, cloudy and cool conditions for Tuesday.
Ridging aloft will prevail from the Great Lakes to the Deep South through tonight. However, low level southerly flow is progged to develop ahead of an approaching low pressure system tonight. The low is progged to begin to fill Wed as the mid level trof goes briefly negatively tilted and begins to open. The new air mass will be of Pacific origin, so no drastic swings in temps are forecast behind it, and lows at night will be above freezing after tonight.
/issued 321 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ A compact upper low is moving quickly across Arizona this afternoon. The warm conveyor belt downstream of the low has brought a plume of mid-level moisture and a band of light rain showers progressing across central and eastern New Mexico, and on into West Texas at 3 pm. The upper low will continue its northeast trek tonight into southeast Colorado by early Tuesday morning. But as the low approaches later tonight, we could see another round of showers late in the evening, as some of the short-term guidance suggests. As the upper-low quickly moves across the central plains Tuesday, the trough axis and dry front will sweep across West Texas, with gusty westerly winds developing during the day.
The dry and benign weather will continue through the next couple of days across South Florida with broad high pressure well in control of the region. /issued 654 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016/ With high pressure and a locally dry atmosphere, mainly VFR conditions Will prevail across the South Florida terminals through the forecast period.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 707 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will continue to build in across the area through Tuesday, bringing dry weather.
733 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 An area of low pressure will slowly move eastward across northern Maine tonight and into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Light snow will become more focused across the higher elevations of the Northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains tonight, with the snow tapering off Tuesday.
Another cool and dry day across Middle TN with copious sun and light winds as high pressure rules the roost. More of the same is on tap for tomorrow as some weak upper level ridging moves across the eastern CONUS.
615 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will build in from the west through mid week. A cold front with limited moisture will move through the area on Thanksgiving day.
Temperatures are already falling close to freezing or at freezing over southern middle TN.
Still waiting on the low level moisture return across our western zones but this should occur quickly after midnight given the pressure gradient in place. Otherwise a veil of high and dense cirrus will overspread the lower level moisture during the day as well.
Also, expect surface temperatures to cool to near freezing. Thus, expect there to be a mix of light rain, light freezing rain, sleet, and snow into the morning hours as the area expands across the northeastern CWA.
958 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 Windy conditions will persist overnight as a large upper low over New England slowly lifts northeast toward the Canadian maritimes.
/issued 338 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ A deep trough is moving east across the Four Corners this afternoon. A downstream ridge over the Plains is slowly approaching, providing northwesterly flow aloft over the Mid- South. High clouds will increase this evening as moisture spills over the top of the ridge. However, farther west, southerly winds will remain up around 5-10 mph which should keep overnight lows above freezing. A few showers and/or thunderstorms may move into the northwest portion of the CWA, mainly west of Jonesboro late tomorrow afternoon as the aforementioned Four Corners trough approaches.
1008 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure through Tuesday. A weak cold front mid week.
614 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure through Tuesday. A weak cold front mid week.
Light and variable winds in place for Tuesday as high pressure settles through the area. Dry/stable conditions maintain clear skies across the lowest 10k ft through the period. * None The area remains between large low pressure over the northeast and ridging in the Midwest which is continuing the fresh northwest flow of cold air. High pressure to the west will slide eastward and be centered overhead during the day Tuesday.
/issued 341 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level trough over the Great Basin will move east across the southern Rockies and into the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday. Given the extent of cloud cover and an increase in low level moisture overnight, temperatures will be considerably warmer, with lows in the mid and upper 50s. Could see a few showers or a thunderstorm develop over far southeast counties ahead of the trough axis but due to limited moisture and upper level support, will limit POPs to 20 percent. (Tuesday night through Monday) A cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening, resulting in gusty north winds and cooler temperatures.
654 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 With high pressure and a locally dry atmosphere, mainly VFR conditions Will prevail across the South Florida terminals through the forecast period.
Some high clouds will skirt northern areas through the overnight as upper ridge continues to build in this direction. Upper ridge will also build in across the area next 24 hours.
Otherwise a veil of high and dense cirrus will overspread the lower level moisture during the day as well. /issued 335 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ Cirrus to the North and West will continue to overspread the four state area, making for a warmer night along with the moist Southerly winds. The upper low is winding up in the four corners and will roll out across the plains by early midweek. This cold front is 1020mb of E Pacific origin and will be seasonal for the mid to late week time frame and a super Thanksgiving Day.
557 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 1030 mb high pressure over western Ontario and ridging southward across central WI and eastern IL was providing ample sunshine again today to central and southeast IL. High pressure overhead was also providing fairly light winds and seasonably cool temperatures in the low to mid 40s. High pressure will drift east to near the IN/OH border by early Tue morning and continue fair weather over our CWA. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s in eastern IL to the lower 30s from Jacksonville sw. A vigorous, negatively tilted, upper-level trof, currently pushing into the Four Corners, is the next significant weather feature to impact forecast area.
849 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 A look at the CONUS we find two upper lows, one spinning over eastern Canada and Maine, and the other approaching the Colorado Front Range. The upper low is the catalyst for the lake effect snow event crossing New York State this evening. Between the two lows we have a large area of high pressure with cold air advecting along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and through the Florida Peninsula.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1001 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will continue to build in across the area through Tuesday, bringing dry weather.
Raised wind speeds into the breezy to windy category behind this cold front given the fairly tight pressure gradient in its wake.
1001 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will continue to build in across the area through Tuesday, bringing dry weather.
1028 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 An area of low pressure will slowly move eastward across northern Maine tonight and into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Light snow will become more focused across the higher elevations of the Northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains tonight, with the snow tapering off Tuesday.
The only change to the forecast is to take into account the cooler current temperatures in a few spots.
Weak upper trough moving across the Rockies today will have its and tonight. However, we the limited period of decent lift and hint of splitting trough this evening should result in limited QPF for the lower elevations and just a quick decent hit to the mountains where 2-4 inches of snowfall is common overnight. A secondary trough axis in northwest flow moves over Tuesday behind this evenings system.
800 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Tonight through Tuesday night: An upper trough over the southwestern states will advance eastward tonight, moving across the Central/Southern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Lows will be much warmer than normal. Light rain shower (isolated thunder) chances will be mainly east of I-135 Tuesday, ahead of the cold front as modified Gulf moisture increases. Also expecting rain chances along/north of I-70 in the wrap-around area of the low pressure. Gusty winds will persist Tuesday into Tuesday night with the low pressure moving through.
/issued 324 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ The chilly weather of the past couple of days will soon be coming to an end with temperatures rapidly moderating as the ridge of cold high pressure shifts to our the east and southerly winds develop across the region in advance of the next storm system. Since these areas have already experienced two consecutive nights of freezing temperatures with this cold surge, a freeze warning will not be issued and instead a special weather statement discussing the cold temperatures and light freeze will be issued.
636 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will move across the area tonight providing fair weather. Lows are expected to be in the lower to middle 20s. Considerable cloudiness is expected Tuesday as low pressure approaches from the plains.
1030 mb high pressure over western Ontario and ridging southward across central WI and eastern IL was providing ample sunshine again today to central and southeast IL. High pressure overhead was also providing fairly light winds and seasonably cool temperatures in the low to mid 40s. High pressure will drift east to near the IN/OH border by early Tue morning and continue fair weather over our CWA. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s in eastern IL to the lower 30s from Jacksonville sw. A vigorous, negatively tilted, upper-level trof, currently pushing into the Four Corners, is the next significant weather feature to impact forecast area.
736 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 Windy conditions will persist through tonight as a large upper low over New England slowly lifts northeast toward the Canadian maritimes.
Another clear and cool day as the Ohio Valley remains under dry high pressure. However, tonight will be another cold one as the ridge keeps skies clear and winds light. Mins will generally run only a couple degrees warmer than last night, as the better return flow remains limited to western Kentucky. Tuesday night we get onto the backside of the upper ridge as a progressive trof pushes into the Plains, and the southerly surface gradient tightens. Still think the low levels will be slow to moisten up, as that southerly flow is coming off some drought- ravaged areas in the Deep South, and the Gulf tap isn't very deep.
Roads in the high country may become icy overnight, and some patchy fog is also possible. Dry and warmer weather is forecast from Tuesday through the remainder of the week. In addition, roads may become slick in the high country where temperatures drop below freezing and wet roads become icy. Conditions improve on Tuesday as warmer high pressure moves in from the west.
Southerly winds will increase again tomorrow morning and afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure developing in the Central Plains. /issued 302 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night):Low to mid level moisture will return across portions of the state of Texas tonight into Tuesday as a 500mb trough across the southwest United States this afternoon moves eastward across the Rockies tonight into Tuesday.
/Issued 340 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ Afternoon water vapor imagery features upper low now over AZ with scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern AZ/western NM. Upper low will track across KS and eastern NE by Tue evening. with a surface cold front arriving in eastern OK/western AR late Tue into early Wed. there will be very strong shear on the order of 40-50kt as upper trough approaches.
Meanwhile high pressure will build into central California and bring dry weather through Tuesday.
Mid and high clouds set to move in from the west tonight as the upper trof begins to move across the desert SW and into West TX. Models remain on track with the associated cold front with this longwave trof moving into SE TX by Tues evening. These latest runs keeping with the idea that the we will see a rapid return of the cold front as a warm front by Thu/ Thanksgiving evening.
Roads in the high country may become icy overnight and some patchy fog is also possible. Dry and warmer weather will return on Tuesday, lasting through the week. The main upper low has now moved into central arizona with the cold front extending from near the four corners southward through Show Low and Whiteriver. Roads may become slick in the high country tonight where temperatures drop below freezing and wet roads freeze. Conditions improve on Tuesday as warmer high pressure moves in from the west.
FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW An upper level trough and Pacific cold front will cross from the west tonight with rain and snow showers expected across much of northern and central New Mexico.
Thereafter, temperatures should level off or slowly decline to their expected overnight lows in the low/mid 40s most locales save for barrier islands of the Space and Treasure Coast. Boating conditions will continue to gradually improve through the overnight as the axis of high pressure moves closer to the area.
Under clear skies this evening, temperatures are already into the lower 30s in the northern third to the upper 30s in the lower third of the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 62 40 62 / 0 0 0 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 58 35 62 / 0 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 26 58 35 62 / 0 0 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 20.
Downwind clouds from Lake Erie continue to hold tight over the region, and have even expanded back southward slightly along the ridges. Previous discussion for Tuesday: Upper level heights finally begin to rise tonight and through Tuesday as a broad ridge builds into the Tennessee Valley. Once the warmer air heads eastward, the persistent cloud cover will quickly erode.
1234 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Aloft: RAP analyses and aircraft data show a ridge over the Wrn USA anchored by a subtropical high over AZ. A trof was over the E with NW flow here on the Plns. A very modest lee trof was in between.
421 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Tonight through Wednesday: Latest satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough over most of the CONUS. On the surface breezy northwest winds were noted as high pressure was building in from the west. Temperatures at mid afternoon ranged from around 40 north to the lower 50s southeast. For tonight expect skies to become mostly clear as high pressure builds into the region. Highs will range from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s south under northwest winds.
/issued 351 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017/ Cooler drier air will continue to move into the region behind a developing Nor'easter for the Mid-Atlantic/New England states today.
GOES-16 imagery showing the northwest flow over eastern portions of the state shifting to the east as upper ridge begins to take shape and move in from the west. Temperatures currently well above freezing so threat for freezing rain looks minimal this evening, but will keep an eye on areas from Miles City east for any wintry mix development. Pattern for the next few days looks warmer but unsettled as disturbances continue to press over the area from the west along with Pacific moisture. Weak ridging builds over the area tomorrow as downslope westerly winds increase and push temperatures into the 60s. Downslope winds will continue wednesday night with breezy conditions likely holding in for at least the higher hilltop locations through the night.
The center of the ridge makes its way into Arkansas and the Deep South late Wed/Wed night. Low level moisture is seen to return to the region but with the depth of the moisture limited to the lowest 4-5K feet would suspect to see only a more extensive cumulus field for a few hours in the late morning and early afternoon before the very drier air aloft mixes through the boundary layer moisture. Max Temperatures look to be around the same or slightly warmer with heights and thicknesses varying little so we can expect another overall nice day with highs in the 70s with a few inland locations topping out in the lower 80s.
224 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Strong low pressure well north of the forecast area will help cause breezy conditions through Wednesday. Canadian high pressure building into the area will bring freezing conditions.
Lift is lacking in the lower levels, so this low level moisture should not result in MVFR CIGS while the increasing mid clouds should keep light fog potential low as well.
432 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 The big picture this afternoon puts the region under the influence of a 140 knot upper level jet streak diving toward western KY, between the massive East Coast snowstorm and a large ridge over the Western states. Chilly high pressure continues to nose through Iowa this afternoon, with east to southeast low-level flow back across most of eastern Nebraska. Still, a small opening for some of the light precipitation to be a sleet or light freezing rain, during the early morning hours. Still, highs should be much warmer than today, from mid to upper 30s across western Iowa, to readings perhaps closing on 50 degrees Albion to Fairbury. Winds will remain up somewhat on Wednesday night with lows likely warmer than readings this afternoon.
With this being said, did keep the mention of a slight chance for freezing rain across North Central Montana through the morning hours, as surface temperatures are still well below freezing with temperatures well above freezing just off the surface.
240 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cold and snow showers through Wednesday. A brief period of efficient snow will continue through the high terrain through early afternoon but generally expecting rates to diminish as strong cold advection steepens profiles to colder than ideal dendritic snow growth values and dry air entrain across the area.
Cooler air over northeast Oklahoma will continue to push slowly southwest tonight.
Surface wise, another in a series of troughs is draped from south central Florida and into the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. With that said, cooler and drier air will filter into our region in waves with temperatures dropping to near 60 degrees in the extreme Upper Keys early Wednesday morning and in the lower to mid 60s in the Lower Keys.
1243 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A band of very light snow from the Dakotas into Nebraska and northern Kansas is associated with a sheared and very weak vort max on the back side of the large upper trough to the east. Freeze warning remains in effect for far southern parts of the forecast area which have experienced more growing degree days (warmer temperatures/more growth) this season, but obviously any blossoming vegetation further north is at risk as well.
228 PM MDT Tue Mar 14 2017 The flow aloft will remain northwesterly tonight but as the upper ridge over the Great Basin shifts over Colorado on Wednesday, the flow aloft will become westerly. Fire danger will remain elevated however due to the low relative humidites and dry fuels but due to the lack of strong winds will hold off issuing any fire weather highlights at this time. Main area to keep on eye on for Wednesday aftn will likely be along the Cheyenne Ridge where some stronger winds are possible. The upper level ridge axis will move across Colorado Wednesday night as an upper level trough over the Northern Rockies flattens it.
With warmer temperatures in the Sierra-Nevada Mountains, runoff into rivers and streams will continue for the rest of this week.
Overcast skies have helped to keep temperatures down today, and light precipitation continues to wrap around the low off the east coast. Some locations in the higher terrain could see some very slow and light accumulations today into tonight, with possibly a couple of inches at the peaks of the mountains. With the lower temperatures we saw today I have gone ahead and made the freeze warning begin a couple of hours earlier than the previous issuance.
A warm front pushing through the area tonight will bring with it a band of over-running precipitation. A wintry mix, including a threat for freezing rain, still remains in the cards for the area, although 12z models greatly reduce the QPF as it slides east where the coldest surface temperatures will be tonight. The next shift will need to evaluate whether the advisory is still the best way to message possible impacts, whether the potential exists for more freezing drizzle vs. freezing rain, or whether lesser impacts can be expected to the area. An upper ridge will become established across northeast Montana for Wednesday helping to drive large scale subsidence and therefore warmer and drier weather conditions.
Warm advection will increase as high slides to the southeast on Wednesday with reading climbing above freezing in the south where snowpack is minimal.