Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
319 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 STATUS DECK ADVECTING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS FROM DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK FLOW. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL ENHANCE MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH READINGS TOWARDS THE FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE SOUTH WITH 20S REMAINING IN THE FAR NORTH. COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS CLIP NRN IOWA TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. ADVECTING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHILL TO THE AIR EVEN THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
/ISSUED 323 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
358 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD A LARGER SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY.
00Z KOHX SOUNDING SHOWS THE MOISTURE LAYER QUITE WELL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RATHER SIGNIFICANT THERMAL INVERSION, AND PROFILES FROM THE HIGH RES WRF MEMBERS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST CALLS FOR MINS IN THE LOWER 30S/NEAR FREEZING AND OVERALL THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.
Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was included in the weather type.
DSS SUPPORT CALLS UNCOVERED FEW PROBLEMS AS A RESULT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND FORTUNATELY LIFT IS ON THE INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE DRIZZLE OVER TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE. ON THE NEGATIVE, MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LOT OF SHIFTING WITH THE BAND AS WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE UL TROF.
MEGA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH UPPER LOW DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SO WITH THE RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND NO MOISTURE AROUND WE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS.
301 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY TYPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SHUNTING THE HIGH MOISTURE FURTHER EAST.
Slightly warmer temperatures are likely today as a low level westerly downslope flow persists. For tonight, lows will drop down into the teens(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 20s(F) in south central Kansas.
1250 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT DUE TO A TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND A SFC COASTAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHCS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS S TX WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NLY WINDS ACROSS S TX AND THE MARINE AREAS.
AS TROUGH ACROSS CONUS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT. BUILDING RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA IS LEADING TO MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. TRACKING ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS EARLY IN WHATS LEFT OF SOUTHERN FLOW.
00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
1156 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS TO CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A LONGER WAVE TROF WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
THIS ALONG WITH W/SW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH MAINTAINING WELL MIXED BL SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS. GENERALLY WENT AROUND 10-15 DEGS FOR LOWS NORTH/WEST AND COULD BE CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE OF THAT RANGE IN MANY AREAS NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL. COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
2016 WILL BEGIN WITH A COOLER PATTERN THAT WILL LAST WELL INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS HAVE LED TO SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/SNIZZLE. THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR WILL START OFF UNDER A MEAN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT, AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO AVG. VERY LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OK MON AM. BY WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR, HOWEVER, POPS WILL INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE FA AS WAA DOES THE SAME AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SW. CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER THU 12Z THANKS TO DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW FAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR.
310 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 Water vapor imagery showing Rex block in place over the Pacific Northwest with weak downstream troughing over the Northern Plains, leading to low level west to northwest winds. Dry and relatively warm air in place Friday allowed temps to reach the middle 30s to lower 40s, and 0Z upper air data showed warmer 850mb temps to the northwest, upstream in this regime. With west to northwest winds continuing and still considerable snowpack north of Highway 36 and east of Marysville per Friday afternoon visible satellite data, have kept values a bit cooler there, but most guidance is still well too generous on the current snow field.
THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND NEARBY AREAS WITH WIND CHILL READINGS DIPPING TO 30 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE FEW FLURRIES REPORTED IN OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED 500 MB TROUGH WERE IN A REGION OF DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING TO 30 MB ON THE 280K SURFACE. COLUMN MOISTENED ENOUGH FOR THE TOP OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO BUILD INTO THE BOTTOM PORTION OF THE LOW DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE THE FLURRIES. WATCHING ANOTHER 500 MB SHORT TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM SRN CANADA IN THE NW FLOW THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IF CLOUDS HANG IN MORE THAN EXPECTED AND WINDS STAY UP COULD SEE LOWS WARMER THAN FORECAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE HIGH CLOUDS SO THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD LOWER INTO THE LOW 30S OR UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY.
/ISSUED 305 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENGULFING THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
310 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTU8CKY FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A RIDGE AXIS STILL EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY KEEPING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. WILL SEE SOME RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURES SPLITS TONIGHT WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S.
1057 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 A TAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.
MUCH QUIETER NIGHT TONIGHT, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IS MAINLY IN CONTROL OF WX CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY CAT. WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN WEAKENING A BIT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE THE STALLED FRONT TO THE N SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND THURSDAY AS OUR REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
340 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
142 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS.
UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.
CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF ALONG 80 WEST LONGITUDE.
AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE.
MODELS SHOW BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE. IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND. WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U. this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U. A few strong storms with hail to the size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.
327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U. WITH OUR REGION ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER. BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD. THOUGH GENERALLY LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS CONTINUES TODAY WITH WNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE W AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THIS TROF WILL TURN SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND BRUSH BY THE FCST AREA IN A DAMPENED FASHION TOMORROW AM. AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF THAT WILL BE OVER SRN SASK/MT. SURFACE: ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS SINKING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ALSO ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
249 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY. STORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WAVES AFFECT AREA. COLD FRONT. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER. AND KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THEN AS CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE ATTAINS A MORE ELONGATED STRUCTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR SOME AREAS.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SW CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
315 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BUT ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. OVERALL THEME IS STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE. -HOWERTON NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
347 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015 ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE HIGH DESERTS. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE HIGH DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SQUASH MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
608 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
644 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA NORTH.
346 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY.
643 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
404 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER AS OF 0930Z. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTS SWD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TNT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO NRN LAKE MI.
642 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
329 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN MO. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S. PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE.
1132 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE TODAY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
THE 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL GO THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 1 PM, THEN GARDEN CITY BY 3 TO 4 PM, THEN DODGE CITY BY 6 TO 7 PM. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST, WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 30 CELSIUS. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS FROM 97 TO AROUND 100 TODAY WITH THE WARMEST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS CLOSER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE HIGH DESERTS. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE HIGH DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SQUASH MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
649 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
138 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.
412 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA NORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.
WE'LL SEE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG/JUST ATOP THE BOUNDARY BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. AND AS THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVATE ALONG 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE LINES BISECTING PAH FA.
253 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 UNSETTLED/ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER IS UPON US. WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES. TOP OF THE RIDGE WAS FLATTENING A BIT. RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OK/EASTERN KS THROUGH THE IA/NE BORDER AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE HEAT SHOULD PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE 595DM RIDGE BASICALLY TAKES RESIDENCE OVERHEAD.
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
431 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA NORTH.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SW WIND. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE RIDGE ALOFT FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THINNING CIRRUS IN THE SUBSIDENT AREAS FROM OK IN AR AND TX AND LA. SO WHAT THE HEAT INDEX IF AIR GOES WARMER. THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW WITH STILL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OUT WEST WITH A DIP SEEN EVEN NOW ON THE VAPOR OVER ID/MT.
246 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY. STORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WAVES AFFECT AREA. COLD FRONT. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER. AND KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN. AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION.
/ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US. RW MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH.
303 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN FROM UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE HIGH PLAINS. 00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES OVER-TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
400 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN AND LIFT IN THE 12 TO 14Z TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MINS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MOST PLACES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
254 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015 HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING OVER THE 100+ DEGREE TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY AND WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT.
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.