Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
941 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 Weak high pressure over the region today will move south tonight. Low pressure will track eastward across the region Wednesday bringing widespread showers, and possibly thunderstorms.
Strong warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front amidst saturated low-levels may support patchy drizzle Wednesday night, although suspect depth of saturation may be just shallow enough to prevent widespread drizzle.
954 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 A deep ridge governs the weather pattern across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters this morning.
330 AM PST Tue Dec 19 2017 High pressure expected for one more day with near normal temperatures for the California interior. Blocking ridge pattern finally showing signs of breaking down toward the mid-week period as a change in the weather is expected. After having a dry cold front cross the region over the weekend, the door is now open for additional storms to enter the region. In addition, satellite imagery is also showing the development of a baroclinic leaf which should add support for not having another dry cold front pushing through Central California on Wednesday. Again, while models are not progging significant precipitation during the passage of the next cold front, orographic lift will provide better precipitation potential across the Sierra Nevada.
This system is expected to interact with the warm front lingering over our northern tier of counties. 8" range, some of these storms could pro- duce some locally heavy rains in/near the warm front itself. The next round of storms is forecast for the evening hours as the cold front finally moves into the region from the west to east. Extended models still fairly out of sorts with the timing of the next cold front. The fog will probably linger until the weakening Pacific cold front moves off the coast toward morning Wednesday with showers and even a thunderstorm.
Coastal troughing continues to work its way into the interior parts of the Coastal Bend as visibilities have improved behind it. Sea fog still looks to be an issue however given shelf water temperatures are still in the low-60s while dewpoints are in the low-70s. Weak convergence along the coastal trough with a weak outflow boundary moving towards the Coastal Bend are helping to generate scattered shower. Cold front still expected to cross the region late tonight. radiative fog seems very plausible though counter-intuitive given a cold frontal passage light west-northwesterly flow. Much drier and slightly warmer on Wednesday with much more sunshine expected.
Quick moving cold front will move into the North Bay before midnight and then race southward through the Bay Area by dawn Wednesday.
A cold front will bring rain and mountain snow today through Wednesday. The more widespread and heavier cold frontal precip is not expected to arrive until early this afternoon. These are expected to peak late in the afternoon near 40 mph are expected on the ridges. Tuesday night the upper level trough moves overhead.
A trough will sweep through the Four Corners late in the week bringing cooler temperatures, but not much chance of precipitation this far south.
The pattern begins today with moist west to northwest flow aloft streaming into the region, and a strong upper level low pressure system off the British Columbia coast. The upper low will rapidly move onshore today, and snowfall will intensify as the system approaches.
647 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 A weak area of low pressure will track northwest of the region today into tonight.
529 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 The warm front continues to lift slowly to the north this morning as dense fog has moved inland across southern and central La. Afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler.
419 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2017 Low amplitude upper trough is crossing the northern Plains into the Great Lakes area. Weak ridging is building over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front has just about made it all the way through the CWA to near the Nebraska border. This will bring warmer air back into northeast Wyoming into southwest and south central South Dakota where highs will reach into the 40s.
Even despite clouds, highs will likely in the low to mid 50s. A decent looking upper low over the Land of Enchantment will start moving east and help weak sfc cyclogenesis develops over the Lone Star State and drives nwd to the Ohio Valley. With the warm frontal zone setting up Srn TN/MS/AL border this will create efficient rain with moderate to strong isentropic rainfall for all areas south of BG parkway.
Guidance has trended temperatures a bit cooler both days, thanks to northeast winds today and increased cloud cover across eastern Nebraska tomorrow.
Wv imagery this morning shows upper low over nrn Mexico/srn NM churning Pacific moisture nwd into TX. Upper low to push ewd today, generating widespread convection across our region. Warm front just s of our region to return nwd today as well, and temps will soar into the 60s and 70s. Despite passage of a weak cold front, temperatures to remain well above normal.
Foggy conditions will gradually give way to rain showers this morning as a warm front advances into north MS.
Latest sfc temps ranged from the lower 30s along and north of highway 20 to the lower 40s across central and southern sections of the forecast area. Today and Tonight A cold front will approach from the NW and reach E Iowa/NW Illinois during the mid to late morning. The colder air will lag behind the front, so expect another mild mid December day into the lower to middle 40s far north to mid 50s far south. Then cooling down tonight with high pressure overhead; temps will fall into the 20s.
Ahead of this 500mb trough, moisture advection has persisted, with surface dew points in the mid 50s as far north as the Red River Valley. Increasing isentropic ascent ahead of the trough will result in increasing rain chances through sunrise across north Texas, extending into Oklahoma through the morning and afternoon.
Behind the front a weak high pressure area will slide by just to the north tonight, bringing light winds that should allow for good radiational cooling early Wednesday morning.
Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 50s across the forecast area. A weakening cut-off low centered over the southwest will lift back into the main pattern and cross into the Southern Plains by Wednesday afternoon.
A deep upper level trough is dropping into the coastal waters this morning and will push a cold front inland during the day. It is during the late afternoon through the overnight hours that the cold front will bring lower snow levels to the area.
Expect the unexpected when a warm front develops near dawn in late fall/early winter. Thus a couple more hours of light snow is expected before this warmer air tongue envelopes the area and brings rain for the rest of the day. /Fugazzi 12Z TAFS: A warm front fed by a deep plume of Pacific moisture is forming west to east across the forecast area this morning. A cold front passage this evening will promote drying from west to east over the region tonight.
Current GOES Water Vapor loop showing a mid-level trough of low pressure extending from western Ontario into northern MN and along the ND/SD border. Surface observations show the attendant surface cold front extending from the arrowhead of MN through eastern NE. Radar was showing some very light returns along this cold front but very little reaching the ground per surface observations. For today, the surface cold front more or less washes out as it advance across our area with very little to no precipitation expected. Attention then turns to northern stream trough spreading warm air advective light snow into the area Wednesday night with best chances north of I-90.
Thanks to a good deal of sunshine and W/SW winds ahead of an approaching weak cold front, high temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 50s.
A cold front was entering northern Nebraska. A backdoor cold front will push through western Nebraska this morning, bringing a cooldown to the mid and upper 40s most areas. Synoptically, a positively tilted upper trough and closed low will drop through the Pacific Northwest. A departing high pressure system will continue to bring in dry conditions with mild temperatures.
Southwest winds early this morning will gradually veer to the west then northwest by late morning in the wake of a cold front moving through. A dry cold front will sweep east of Wisconsin by around mid morning. It'll be a bit breezy, so the wind chill will temper those warmer December temps. The quiet weather will continue tonight as high pressure takes hold. Medium Surface/850 ridge axes will shift off to the east.
/issued 348 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017/ An upper level low over southern New Mexico will open up to a wave as it translates east today. Surface lee troughing will build in behind the wave with breezy westerly surface winds.
527 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 Cold front currently working through the forecast area. Temps aloft will tumble behind the front, leading to cooler highs than yesterday. Wednesday looks to be breezy as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching trough.
/issued 529 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017/ The warm front continues to lift slowly to the north this morning as dense fog has moved inland across southern and central La. Afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler.
Expect dense fog to redevelop across our area tonight, along with a gradual increase in rain chances over our western zones ahead of this approaching cold front. Temps inland continue running in the low 70's.
Winds will slowly turn from southwesterly to northerly with a cold front passage through the area.
Will see front lift back to the north as a warm front today along with some mid level impulses riding along largely zonal flow aloft.
Warm front near UTS and lifting northward slowly with dense fog blanketing IAH/HOU area with VLIFR conditions. Pacific cold front coming through tonight with westerly flow in the wake of the front. This system is expected to interact with the warm front lingering over our northern tier of counties. 8" range, some of these storms could pro- duce some locally heavy rains in/near the warm front itself. The next round of storms is forecast for the evening hours as the cold front finally moves into the region from the west to east. Extended models still fairly out of sorts with the timing of the next cold front. The fog will probably linger until the weakening Pacific cold front moves off the coast toward morning Wednesday with showers and even a thunderstorm.
A low pressure system will move across the Tennessee Valley producing widespread rain (especially TYS and CHA) through this morning.
/issued 304 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017/ A upper low centered near El Paso this morning has provided enough lift this morning to produce a few showers and thunderstorms across the area. This should be the trend through the day as the upper low lifts directly over the area.
Better moisture/more rain will occur near and south of the low track, but there will still be a good chance for rain over southern MO/far SE KS. The highest amounts are expected along the AR/MO border. A dry air fetch from high pressure nosing south into the Midwest will likely keep our central MO counties precip free for the most part.
A warm front is developing south of the region and moving north as a potential mid level trough moves into west Texas. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are developing across the ARKLATEX and spreading east/northeast along and north of the warm front. Also as the warm front moves into the Mid-South expect at least patchy fog to continue across much of the area. Foggy conditions will gradually give way to rain showers this morning as a warm front advances into north MS.
631 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 Weak high pressure over the region today will move south tonight. Low pressure will track eastward across the region Wednesday bringing widespread showers.
A low pressure system moving into the Great Basin Wednesday will bring stronger onshore flow with cooling. A weakening cold front will move through far southern California late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with small chances for very light precipitation along and west of the mountains.
Temperatures five to 10 degrees above normal are expected today, then a cold front will bring strong winds, chances for valley rain and mountain snow, and much colder air to the southern Great Basin Wednesday and to the Mojave Desert Wednesday night.
/issued 254 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2017/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern keeping warm sunny and dry weather with easterly wind flow. High temperatures today in the low to mid 80s. SHORT TERM: Ridging and high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern keeping South Florida mostly dry and warm with temperatures above normal in the low to mid 80s. A 500mb trough with a cold front will be digging across the southeastern US this weekend. The ECMWF keeps the upper level trough further west and the cold front stalling north of the region and mostly dry conditions across South Florida for the Christmas holiday. MARINE: High pressure will keep mostly dry conditions across the region under an easterly flow.
As a Pacific cold front moves through, our rain chances will end after midnight.
303 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2017 Main forecast concern will be the approach of the first arctic cold front of the season by late Wednesday.
High pressure will continue over the area providing a weak pressure gradient and light winds. High pressure will push east of the area so low level winds will become S/SW and only increase slightly. Mild low temps will continue in the low to mid 60s.
Also, an upper ridge exists across the western US, and just off the BC coast an upper level low dives south. This upper low will head towards the 4-corners region over the next couple of days. this band has wobbled north and south in the models from HWY 2 to I-94, so still plenty of uncertainty where the highest snows will be.
We are very mild this morning, with much of the area still above freezing, so even though we will have CAA behind a cold front just pushing through the Twin Cities at 3 am, most of the area will be able to warm above freezing again this afternoon. Looking at the GEFS and EPS temperature plumes, this afternoon is the last time either ensemble has even one member getting above freezing at MSP through the rest of their 2 week long runs. Tonight, the wave currently coming on shore in Washington will be moving out into the high Plains, with a warm advective band of snow moving across North Dakota.
Moisture will continue to increase and a warm front will enter south Arkansas this afternoon.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday then a strong cold front will sweep through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing accumulating snow and gusty winds.
Temperatures will be in the 70s across southeast Georgia and near 80 to the lower 80s across northeast Florida. Light winds and cooler conditions tonight will lead to widespread dense fog across the region, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected by 06Z.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Wednesday with highs generally in the 20s. A low pressure system developing across the northern Plains could bring some snow to the western cwa late Wednesday afternoon, however the bulk of the precipitation is expected to hold off until later periods.
/issued 325 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level low bringing precipitation into the area over the next 18 hours or so is currently just southwest of El Paso, and is expected to move east through the Permian Basin, before turning northeast through the Big Country and into Oklahoma this evening. As the low moves northeast tonight, expect activity to end from southwest to northeast this during the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be cooler today with clouds and rain in the area, so have gone with upper 50s to lower 60s.
Expect fair and warm weather today, ahead of a cold front due Wednesday night.
Warm and dry day ahead of the incoming upper low pressure system. Look for temps in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and in the 60s for the plains.
501 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far northeast CO, with frontal boundary extending across the Central Plains. Inverted trough stretches north from the low across eastern WY. Temps are mostly in the 40s, with some 30s across the higher elevations of the western Black Hills. The highest elevations of the BH, mainly above 6000 ft, could still see some snow and light accumulations this morning, though the system is a bit warmer and temperatures are struggling to drop there. Lows will mostly be in the 30s, with some light snow possible across the higher BH if pcpn makes it there late at night.
A slow moving front offshore will move through the area later this afternoon into the evening hours followed by an upper level trough on Thursday.
Chances for SHRA/TSRA will increase just beyond this TAF period as a cold front moves towards the state from the NW during the daytime hrs on Thu. A cold front will be dropping SE towards the state on Thu.
942 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
Models, especially the higher resolved ones, are demonstrating an increased change for showers across the West- Central Mountains of Idaho this afternoon and into the evening hours. An upper trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest tonight bringing another round of precipitation into southeast Oregon after midnight. Showers spread into southwest Idaho on Thursday as the quick moving trough tracks inland.
Surface wise, an expansive ridge axis is aligned down the entire Eastern Seaboard, and into the Sunshine State. With our region on the southern periphery of a deep layered ridge, considerable dry air within the substantial large scale subsidence will limit shower activity. Hence, pops were sliced from 20 to 10 percent with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 80s.
Well defined upper low currently centered over Alzada will move northeast toward Bismarck ND by this afternoon dragging precipitation shield with it. Ridging moves in place by Thursday morning with skies clearing and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s across most of the area.
Into the overnight hours, LLWS will be a concern as the low level jet kicks up while surface winds decouple. Into the overnight hours, a cold front will dive south with gusty winds in its wake.
Zonal flow across the region through Thursday as the upper ridge gets suppressed to our south/southwest and a storm system moves across the northern half of the United States. For today and Thursday, expect dry conditions, clear skies and high temperatures 1-3 degrees cooler versus yesterday.
1018 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure centered over northern New England will wedge down the east coast today.
945 AM PDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland across California today.
A back door surface front has brought a slightly cooler air mass into central Alabama this morning. Surface temperatures are running about 3-6 degrees cooler across east Alabama and 1-2 degrees cooler in the west. Afternoon temperatures will continue much above normal, but slightly cooler than yesterday. A strong low level ridge of drier air across south Georgia and south Alabama will keep rain free conditions across most of central Alabama today.
Dry and bit cooler conditions expected heading into this weekend. A surface warm front situated near the NE-KS border as of 11z will develop north today with MVFR to IFR ceilings affecting the TAF sites to around midday. This activity will shift east of the area by evening with winds veering to northwest with the passage of the cold front.
1002 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front will lay out south of Lake Erie this evening and lift northward late overnight as a warm front. A cold front will pass through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers and thunderstorms likely.
1041 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure slides into the northern Atlantic through tonight, as a weak warm front lifts back into and across the region.
1056 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. Thursday an area of low pressure will track to the Upper Great lakes.
1042 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Temperatures appear to be on track this morning to take us into the low 80s this afternoon west of the Cumberland Plateau and into the mid to upper 70s along the Plateau.
Thursday afternoon will see a trough move across the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 61 83 62 / 50 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 60 81 62 / 50 40 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 77 60 82 61 / 50 30 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 56 79 57 / 70 30 30 40.
923 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weak trof moving onshore the NE FL coast this morning with some isolated shower activity moving onshore. High pressure ridge slides further southward tonight and expect dry conds with mostly clear skies and main impact late tonight with be another night with patchy fog inland, some of it could be locally dense across inland SE GA and near the West Mims wildfire location in the Oky NWR.
926 AM MST Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, keeping the storm track to our north.
Large scale lift will largely be void of the area as the deeper reservior of moisture remains downstate and forcing from an upper low lifting northward through the Rockies stays to our northwest. Hence the high PoPs remain in the forecast today and tomorrow, though with generally light QPF values. Jet energy digging into the northwestern CONUS early this weekend will effectively absorb what remains of the lifting upper low while acting to carve out broad troughing across the western states.
142 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A new and chillier airmass will move in overnight behind a dry cold front. A second shot of cooler air will arrive Friday as a potent upper level disturbance drops in from the Great Lakes. IR pics indicate NW-SE cloud streets now all the way to the Allegheny Front and clouds forming on the NW slopes of the central ridges.
The better chances of showers in west central Wisconsin, and the added cloud cover will lead to temperatures in the low to mid 60s for highs. Elsewhere, upper 60s to lower 70s will be common, with the best chance of low to mid 70s along the Buffalo ridge. High pressure will build across the region overnight, allowing for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s in central Minnesota, to the low to mid 40s elsewhere.
246 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure is over the area early today, with only a thin band of cirrus running across the skies of Iowa and Illinois. Temperatures have radiated down to the lower to mid 40s in many locations already as of 2 AM. Today is a straight forward high pressure day, with light west winds and sunny skies. Highs in the lower to mid 70s are forecast by all guidance an that should seen in high confidence, in a dry air mass. Tonight, a secondary cold front will sweep through the region, with only mid clouds associated with it's passing. The passing band of clouds and winds from the northwest will help keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than the current night, and this results in mid 40s to lower 50s forecast.
Water vapor imagery still shows moisture in sw flow aloft with embedded minor shrtwv trofs. MOS has latched onto the high moisture content and thus the high MOS PoPs, in our mind tantamount to a high PoP - low QPF scenario. Exception is in the far s into Terrell Co where potential for shrtwv trof interaction is greater, still instability there is not that good. Thick clouds, persistent surface ridging and light precip all support unseasonably cool high temps thru Fri, but still below normal on Sat.