Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure was located from the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin at 08Z/3am. Meanwhile, an upper low closes off by this time. Pieces of energy will rotate around the low and produce mainly showers over the region.
As the warm front/push of theta-e advection pushes further north early this morning, expect much of this activity to remain north of the CWA across central/southern MN.
with mid level dry slotting expected to persist overnight over E TX/extreme SE OK E of the closed low centered near/just S of the DFW Metroplex. These -SHRA should begin to diminish this evening but possibly redevelop Friday night as the closed upper low begins to sink S into S TX. However, the upper trough is progged to move slightly farther east, which should bring the rain currently over North Texas into East Texas and possibly farther east into the CWA.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Closed low spinning over Central Texas to track steadily South the next 24-48 hours moving over Deep South Texas. Models suggest a little less mid level moisture in the region since we are on the south side of the low which might reduce overall coverage of thunderstorms today. Eastern areas will see the best chances as the low gradually moves south and better moisture convergence develops along the low pressure trough axis that splits the CWA. As the low approaches and moves over our region tonight and Saturday the combination of increasing upper support/diffluence, cold pool aloft and deepening moisture should lead to likely to widespread convection. Lows will fall once again into the lower 70s maybe the upper 60s northern reaches due to rain cooled air.
High pressure building over the region will bring warming temperatures through Saturday with highs topping out in the mid 80s to the mid 90s.
239 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 KBYX detects isolated showers over offshore Gulf of Mexico waters north-northwest of the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 80s.
328 AM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure aloft over California will bring inland high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average through Saturday. The marine layer and weak onshore flow will keep coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog with slow afternoon clearing near the beaches.
325 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 325 AM CDT Weak high pressure over the region this morning will move slowly east today with light gradient expected to allow a healthy lake breeze to develop this afternoon. Cold front will move across the area Saturday night bringing an end to precip chances and ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.
The upper level flow around a developing ridge over the southwest states will force our low pressure system and associated showers and storms south of the area Saturday.
Upper low, currently somewhere centered around Lampassas, is still expected to sag slowly south over the next couple of days. Best moisture and lift should reside on the eastern portion of the upper low (although convection which develops will cyclonically move proximate to the low). Still, will have the highest rain chances over the eastern and northeastern areas.
Upper troughing over TX and weak ridging to its east.
Clear skies over the CWA this morning under upper level ridging over the west coast. Several degrees warmer this morning in delta influenced areas due to a much weaker delta breeze. Amplification of the ridge will bring a warmer airmass today.
We will remain under the influence of a broad upper level ridge aloft, with the Western Atlantic low level ridge axis to our north.
651 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected to persist right through tonight as surface ridging persists over southeast Michigan. * None SE Michigan remains positioned within the southern expanse of broad high pressure centered across central Ontario over the next 24 hours. Overall thermal profile across the top of the mixed layer /850-800 mb/ roughly 2-3 degrees cooler than readings noted yesterday. This favors high temperatures arriving a touch cooler today under full insolation, with readings generally in the vicinity of 80 degrees.
The low pressure system is forecast to retrograde south-southwest overnight and through Friday morning into South-Central Texas. Showers may wrap around the back side of the low toward the AUS and SAT TAFs during the early morning hours.
335 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Upper level trof will sweep across the Northern high plains today with an associated weak cold front which will move across the Northeast plains of Colorado this morning. An upper ridge over the western states and an upper trough over the Great Lakes region will put north-northwest flow over the state this weekend. A cold front will bring cooler surface temperatures Saturday along with stability to the plains. Some instability over the high terrain will allow for diurnal convection.
327 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Upper low has meandered its way ewd into central TX over the last 24 hours and continues to have several areas of convection associated therewith.
An upper level trough will then develop over the region this weekend, bringing a period of wet and cooler weather. A weak high pressure ridge will work down into the fa today. Upped high temperatures for today a couple of degrees into the lower 80s for everyone, as expect a little more sun due to the lower chance of rain.
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 An inverted trough is beginning to set up over Middle Tennessee that extends from a strengthening surface & upper low centered over Texas.
An upper level trough will then develop over the region this weekend. providing a period of unsettled and cooler weather. 80 inch PWATs will advect into the Ohio Valley ahead of a digging trough over the Upper Midwest. Several vort maxes associated with this trough will allow for rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures will be a tad cooler on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s due to all the clouds and rain.
343 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure will help maintain dry conditions today into tonight.
The upper low continues to rotate over Tx and bring upper energy into Ar. Latest model runs do have the Tx upper low drifting back to the southwest, but still sending upper energy into Ar. So still looks like a wet Friday and Saturday before the cold front does move more southeast to dry out the state.
323 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 SE Michigan remains positioned within the southern expanse of broad high pressure centered across central Ontario over the next 24 hours. Overall thermal profile across the top of the mixed layer /850-800 mb/ roughly 2-3 degrees cooler than readings noted yesterday. This favors high temperatures arriving a touch cooler today under full insolation, with readings generally in the vicinity of 80 degrees.
1035 PM PDT THU JUN 2 2016 High pressure builds over Eastern Washington and North Idaho over the next several days. The tail of the exiting system and jet slicing over the Cascades will continue to provide some middle to high clouds, before the ridge starts to amplify and the cloud engine falters. Cote' 00Z TAFS: A ridge will start to build in tonight into Friday.
Beyond this morning all medium-range models agree on the TX mid/upper low remaining somewhat stationary into tonight before drifting swd through the remainder of the weekend. expect widespread convection to continue developing in waves as the disturbances round the low and cross the area.
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 An upper low over Texas will continue to move slowly south over the next couple days. A cold front will sweep across the area Saturday, and its passage will bring an end to the prolonged period of unsettled weather we have seen.
Light northeasterly surface and H8 winds overnight will help maintain dewpoints and with the prospects of the mid/high level moisture moving east as the upper low slowly drifts deeper into the state have added patchy fog to the forecast. Kept forecast highs close to warmer side of guidance based on recent day's trends. An upper ridge building to the west of the area will allow for heights to rise locally.
1120 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 18z water vapor imagery/rap analysis indicated short wave trough bisecting the cwa and moving to the southeast. Visible imagery showed cu field developing across central portions of the area and can actually see small area of enhancement moving southeast south of Oakley which may be tied to aforementioned short wave trough. Overnight a cold front will begin to reach the area as next weak disturbance approaches.
Overall pattern has an upper level trough digging sharply south over IT and will slowly move eastward.
It will also push a weak cold front through eastern CO. By Saturday morning the front will be draped along the front range with high pressure firmly established across the western U. This will introduce low areal coverage high-based thunderstorms over the higher peaks along the eastern border of the CWA Saturday afternoon.
Aloft, an upper level low continues to spiral across central Texas, with a short wave trough moving into the northern plains. Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s. Another muggy night is expected, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Saturday will feature likely to widespread convection as a trough deepens across the Mississippi Valley and propels a cold front eastward. Highs will be in the low 80s for most locations. A cold front passing across the region late this weekend will be the main highlight in the extended. A cold front will be bearing down on the area to start the period with likely/categorical pops through Saturday night with waves of precipitation pushing across the area.
322 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Low pressure will cross the E Dakotas today /currently stretching from SW SD through N Central SD and Central ND/ will slowly slide E and consolidate over N MN this evening. Most fcst solutions concur on the idea of a sizable break to the wet weather from around 16-19Z, before daytime heating and influence of the 500MB trough over E ND allow for more widespread shower and thunderstorms to develop once again over the E half of the forecast area. Kept the mention of a few stronger showers and thunderstorms in the HWO along near the exiting cold front.
An upper level trough can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery spinning over Texas and making very slow progress east, while weak ridging sits aloft of Florida. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis continues to extend from the Atlantic across northern Florida, bringing about light southeasterly winds.
Otherwise an upper ridge wl be building ovr the area Fri afternoon and most of the forecast area wl have dry weather. However, there could still be some isold showers/tstms ovr the higher terrain. Temps on Fri should be a little warmer than today.
256 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WET WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
154 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Cooler and drier air settles across the region through Friday night. Another cold front will arrive by Saturday night and bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to the area followed by even cooler air. Latest surface analysis has cold front now extending down along the Ohio Valley and will continue to push southward down to the Tennessee Valley as weak surface ridging builds into the region. Pattern will amplify substantially as large ridge builds over the western US.
This system brings an associated cold frontal boundary south onto the Central Plains Friday with chances for thunderstorms returning primarily during the afternoon and evening time frames. The weather pattern will become amplified over the weekend with the interior CONUS in northwest flow, in between the western intermountain ridge and a trough to the east. the amplified ridge off to the west along with an upper level low centered over California will both start to drift off to the east during the forecast period. As it does so, the ridge will begin to slowly breakdown as the cut-off low merges with the main upper level flow.
135 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A cold front in eastern ohio will move east of the area early this evening. High pressure will build into the area friday but will drift east by saturday morning.
334 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016 The cold front is steadily moving south across Wyoming early this morning. Temps will certainly be cooler today in the post frontal environment, perhaps as much as 10F cooler across portions of the Nebraska panhandle. Saturday will be dry and continued cooler as high pressure builds into the forecast area both at the sfc and aloft.
Models in are good agreement on the surface to upper level low currently centered over Central Texas drifting to the south across South Central Texas in the short term. As the low drifts to the south, moisture levels increase with PWS nearing 2 inches in some areas later today into tonight. However, with the center of the low moving across the area, nighttime rains will focus closer to the center.
The scattered showers will continue today as a cold front slowly moves through the region. Slow moving low pressure surface and aloft will bring wet weather for the second half of the weekend into the start of the new work week. a 1007 millibar low was over northern Quebec province with a trailing cold front through the eastern Great Lakes.
449 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Slow moving cold front will keep in the risk for showers and storms through much of the day. Rain will return once again on Saturday as low pressure will keep most of the weekend wet.
445 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
Saturday will be slightly cooler, although still warmer than normal with a good deal of sunshine.
241 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
407 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Latest WV satellite imagery shows well-defined (nearly cut-off) upper level low spinning across central Texas. Northern stream energy diving across Montana and the Dakotas will be our next weather maker this weekend as upr trough digs across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. In response to these two upper level features, a sub-tropical ridge of high pressure will build slightly across the Southeast region today and tonight. Northern branch of upper level trough begins to merge with southern stream energy, resulting in a pronounced southwest flow across the area. High temps will be several degrees cooler than today due to more clouds and potential coverage of showers/storms. Midwest trough will begin moving east as a Canadian short wave drops into the trough.
This rain across northern Arkansas is on the leading edge of the deeper southerly flow associated with the Texas closed low that has been making news headlines. Most of the high-res models (except the hrrr) do not bring the precip to southwest Indiana today. The highest chance of precip will be north and west of the Ohio River, where pops will be in the likely category. Most of the models indicate around an inch of rainfall from this system, however isolated 2 to 3 inch amounts would not be surprising given the high precip water values above the 90th percentile for this time of year. The cold front will move southeast across most of the area Saturday night, quickly followed by drier weather.
136 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016 18z water vapor imagery/rap analysis indicated short wave trough bisecting the cwa and moving to the southeast. Visible imagery showed cu field developing across central portions of the area and can actually see small area of enhancement moving southeast south of Oakley which may be tied to aforementioned short wave trough. Overnight a cold front will begin to reach the area as next weak disturbance approaches.
637 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
An upper low will remain nearly stationary over east TX while a belt of mid level westerlies for remaining off to the north of the time being. This will support a cold frontal passage Sat with additional chances for thunderstorms. A large upper level ridge over the western CONUS will shift east into the Plains with a warming trend late in the week with some areas possibly reaching 90 deg F by Thu.
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the upcoming weekend resulting in dry and increasingly warm conditions.
then slow down becoming a stacked upper low by 00z across the southern valley. Given the developing upper low over near this region. and isolated severe hail given the relatively low freezing levels). Upper low slowly propagates east. Temperatures should be a bit warmer compared to Friday.
Afternoon temperatures over the last few days have managed to climb into the low to mid 800s, and the area should see similar temperatures this afternoon despite a bit more cloud cover. Upper level clouds have already moved northward into the CWA due to a trough of low pressure spinning over Texas. Later this evening a front will approach the northeast corner of the CWA in response to a quick moving trough dropping down out Canada and into the Northern Plains.
Ridging aloft will build over the next two days, bringing increased heat and decreased clouds. Otherwise, temps in the north will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday while remaining nearly the same in the south. Saturday will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming throughout the region as the ridge axis develops right over the CWA.
Continued strong northwest flow on west side of that low will drive cold front through our CWA this evening. While a few showers or storms could develop early in the day in warm advection zone near pre-frontal trough in northeast Nebraska, main convection will likely hold off until cold front moves in later this morning or early afternoon. Temperatures today will likely surge ahead of cold front given some compressional warming component, with mid 80s common.
305 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A disturbance moves southeast through the northern plains into the midwest today that will drive a cold front through western and central Nebraska by evening. A low pressure system across the Texas is limiting moisture return in advance of the plains system that will reduce the potential for showers or thunderstorms beyond the northeast today. Short term model concensus is for the weak cold front to push southeast through western Nebraska this morning and east through the north central by evening. coming mid-week as an upper low traverses underneath a western conus upper ridge and arrives atop the plains. with upper ridging building north and east across the western conus.
433 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Next impulse rounding the base of the upper low situated over ncntl Tx is triggering shra/tstms off the coast early this morning. Rough trajectory should take the bulk of expanding precip along/ESE of the Highway 59 corridor this morning. Do anticipate additional precip to generate with afternoon heating and as additional disturbances rotate around the low and PW's trend back upward.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 346 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WET WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
240 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A weakening cold front will move into northwest Pennsylvania this morning.
Upper trough seen moving through E MT on water vapor imagery was generating showers and isolated thunderstorms over SE MT into Sheridan County early this morning. The trough will exit the area during the day, leaving behind anticyclonic flow over the region. afternoon and night, but time-heights showed the lower-levels will be too dry to support precipitation. will be less windy as strong upper ridging builds over the area. A light flow and subsidence will limit mixing, but the airmass will be warmer, allowing temperatures to reach the lower 80s in many locations. Warmer temperatures will favor the first half of the week with a cool down for the latter half.
658 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday.
346 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the western Atlantic, which will continue to allow for an easterly flow across South Florida through the rest of the work week. At the same time an area of low pressure currently over the Carolinas will begin to pull away as the week progresses. High pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic allowing for easterly flow to continue across the region. High temperatures are expected to remain in the lower 90s and low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will remain in place across the Atlantic waters allowing for easterly flow to continue.
A strong trough moving through the region will bring widespread strong winds and enhanced fire danger to the region through Thursday.
Low pressure remains over the Carolinas, with north/northeast flow around the low continuing to usher Atlantic moisture into Georgia. Highs are expected to be slightly cooler on Thursday, especially in eastern Georgia, with better cloud cover and precip chances.
Thanks to the development of clouds over the Lower Keys, these islands experienced sporadic showers of moderate to brief heavy downpours. Winds were near 5 mph with some occasions of 5 to 10 mph near the shower activity over the Lower Keys. The chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Lower Keys is expected to decrease around sunset as the land areas cool down and shuts down additional development of clouds. Meanwhile, a weak ridge in the lower to mid levels extending southeast towards the Bahamas will remain in place through at least Thursday night.
215 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016 Upper analysis shows a deepening upper low/trough over the Pacific northwest with weak ridging currently over the forecast area. The main sfc feature is a nw-se oriented trough across northeastern Wyoming into southwestern South Dakota. Tonight through Thursday, the upper low will continue to deepen over the pacific northwest tonight, moving into UT Thursday, then ejecting quickly northward on Thursday night. Upper forcing will increase ahead of the approaching upper low with southwest flow aloft. Shower and embedded thunderstorm chances increase overnight and especially Thursday night ahead of upper low with relatively high pops warranted. Temperatures will be around 10F cooler than average on Thursday. A strong upper low over the Great Basin will slide NE toward the nrn Plains for the end of the week into the weekend.
Mins in the lower-middle 70s. Troughing aloft from the mid Atlc states thru north-central FL will gradually weaken during this period. Weakening upper troughing over the southeast U.
Surface warm front across central WI with MCS modified cooler airmass/outflow to our southwest. Looks like the best 850 forcing will be across the northern CWA closer to better baroclinicity and surface warm front.
233 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 Upper ridging overhead is slightly weaker today and with a few clouds around this afternoon, high temperatures will be roughly a degree or two cooler, except for maybe the Rio Grande Valley locations where highs will reach or exceed 100. The upper ridge will continue to weaken over the area and slowly shift east as a large upper low (now entering the PacNW) digs SE through the western US the next few days.