Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
200 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 Surface ridging to the northeast is leading to moderate east winds across much of the area. The ridge will shift a bit more to the east on Wednesday with relatively light southeast winds expected. Temperatures should be a bit warmer and drier air from the center of the upper ridge is expected to mix down during the day.
Very mild temps tonight will result with lows generally in the low-mid 60s.
1025 AM MST Tue Nov 8 2022 09z surface analysis had cold front from far western ND to central WY, oozing southeast per 1-2mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop had strong trough sliding into the northwest CONUS with southwest flow aloft over the CWA. Main forecast concern is disposition of upper trough: - Sharp temperature gradient today.
1049 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 High pressure will build north of the region through Wednesday.
An upper low off the coast of northern California will move inland tonight. This will drive a warm front northward tonight. We may see a break in precipitation for a couple hours late this afternoon before precipitation with the warm front surges northward. The lower elevations will either see all rain or rain/snow mix with little snowfall accumulations. The low will move through eastern Idaho Wednesday evening with cold air spilling into the region on the back side of the low.
Upper-level trough just west of the coast continues to produce impactful weather to interior northern California this afternoon. Upper-level trough will move onshore overnight and into Wednesday with lingering scattered foothills showers / mountain snow showers through around mid-day. After this system departs, upper-level ridge will develop overhead with cooler and drier air filtering into northern California. This combination will promote near-freezing temperatures for parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys with the potential for frost.
High pressure will bring dry and cool weather for much of the upcoming week.
Also issued new set of headlines for tonight and Wednesday when a warm front will surge northward. With the warmer air moving into the region, cancelled a number of areas from the advisory in the southeast highlands, leaving only the higher elevations above 6500 feet. Blowing and drifting snow in the lower elevations may not be as much of a problem given the wet nature of the most recent snow and additional melting that will occur today.
233 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Short term forecast remains dry while on the doorstep of the approaching Tropical Storm Nicole, with increased surface winds due to strong pressure gradient between Nicole and a high pressure system shifting over the NE. This high will be the main play through the short term, with a backdoor front already pushing through much of the CWA this afternoon,evident by a clearing edge of fair weather CU. High temperatures this afternoon don't reflect the passing front, but expect cooler and near seasonable temps beginning tonight with lows in the 40s.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Forecast area will remain on the western extent of a sprawling ridge located over the eastern US extending back to the Continental Divide. Nocturnal LLJ has mixed out for the day, but a gradient flow around the sprawling ridge will keep things breezy this afternoon as well as the evening as a stronger LLJ develops around sunset and beyond.
High pressure aloft will remain in place across the region through Wednesday. At the same time, high pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the forecast area from the northeast. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected, highs will range from around 70 to the lower 80s.
With temperatures already in the 60s to around 70, decrease in cloud cover and upper ridge overhead should allow for temperatures to warm quite a bit today with highs well into the 70s and even low 80s.
For tonight, dewpoints now down into the 30s/40s and clouds continuing to dissipate should allow lows to drop much cooler than we have seen recently, with mid 40s to mid 50s anticipated. An even cooler night is expected Wednesday night with lows in the 40s areawide, and with dewpoints also in the 40s and subsequent low dewpoint depressions, some patchy fog will be possible.
Gusty winds this afternoon and again Wednesday as a weather system brings cooler air and a few showers to the area late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
It will breezy mid morning through afternoon Wednesday with a stronger lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line.
1127 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 High pressure aloft sits centered nearly directly over the forecast area today. At the same time, high pressure at the surface, centered over the New England states and Southeast Canada, will remain wedged into the forecast area. Otherwise, the anomalous subtropical ridge axis will remain fixed over the forecast area, and this will result in another day of near record warmth under mostly sunny skies.
1135 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Southeast United States today. The position of the ridge has allowed for a return of moisture to West Central Texas, with dewpoints in the 60s. Dewpoints in the 60s along with increasing cloud cover will result in overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, well above seasonal normals.
1113 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night ) An upper ridge is located over northern Mississippi with an upper low over the Pacific Northwest. An upper low associated with Nicole in the Atlantic will move west towards Florida today as the high builds over the southeast U. The latest KLZK sounding shows a strong low level inversion and as a result the low clouds will continue much of the day. High pressure will continue over the area Wednesday. Expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s and Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
1232 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through much of the week with high pressure in place.
The combination of Nicole and high pressure over the eastern United States is generating fresh north to northeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
555 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Forecast area will remain on the western extent of a sprawling ridge located over the eastern US extending back to the Continental Divide. Nocturnal LLJ has mixed out for the day, but a gradient flow around the sprawling ridge will keep things breezy this afternoon as well as the evening as a stronger LLJ develops around sunset and beyond.
823 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 A ridge aloft will maintain tranquil weather conditions across the Mid-South over the next couple days. This ridge is quite anomalous with 500 mb heights of at least 591 dam per the 00z raob data.
642 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Another warm afternoon is underway across Central AL with a dominant ridge stationed over the eastern CONUS. East-northeasterly flow from the low to mid levels will eventually push out this warmer airmass tonight, but before then, temperatures around the mid 80s will match or threaten a few more records again this afternoon. Cooler air arrives to the area tonight as a backdoor cold front advects southwest along the spine of the Appalachians. The ridge begins to work its way towards the western Atlantic tomorrow, but remains extended across the Southeast providing us with comfortable temperatures closer to seasonal averages.
High pressure will bring dry and cool weather to the area.
Within the low pressure system, compared to Oakland upper air climatology in early-mid November, -1C at 850 mb is near the minimum moving average and 500 mb temperatures at -30C is near the daily record minimum, expect an unseasonably chilly afternoon and cold night ahead area-wide. SFO Bridge Approach.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Short term forecast remains dry while on the doorstep of the approaching Tropical Storm Nicole, with increased surface winds due to strong pressure gradient between Nicole and a high pressure system shifting over the NE. This high will be the main play through the short term, with a backdoor front already pushing through much of the CWA this afternoon,evident by a clearing edge of fair weather CU. High temperatures this afternoon don't reflect the passing front, but expect cooler and near seasonable temps beginning tonight with lows in the 40s.
Very strong (~1044mb) high pressure over Ontario is influencing the weather over much of the eastern CONUS today. Anticyclonic flow around the high has resulted in northeasterly to easterly flow across our region and has also contributed to a broad temperature/dewpoint gradient across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Lows tomorrow morning will likely be in the low to mid 40s for many locations, but sheltered valleys could drop into the 30s where winds go calm. This will result in an influx of warmer temperatures advecting in from the south resulting in high temps about 5-10 degrees warmer for Wednesday (11/9) compared to Tuesday (11/8).
Surface ridging to the northeast is leading to moderate east winds across much of the area. The ridge will shift a bit more to the east on Wednesday with relatively light southeast winds expected. Temperatures should be a bit warmer and drier air from the center of the upper ridge is expected to mix down during the day.
(This evening through Wednesday night) High pressure will linger over the upper level pattern for the short term forecast. Easterly surface winds will help to advect some warmer and moist air into the area.
855 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 Skies are clear this evening as surface ridging remains in control. Discussion: Calm and pleasant conditons anticipated for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure and ridging remain in control of the story. While Wednesday will be slightly cooler than recent days, forecast highs are still above normal.
525 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) High pressure will linger over the upper level pattern for the short term forecast. Easterly surface winds will help to advect some warmer and moist air into the area.
642 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through much of the week with high pressure in place.
Within the low pressure system, compared to Oakland upper air climatology in early-mid November, -1C at 850 mb is near the minimum moving average and 500 mb temperatures at -30C is near the daily record minimum, expect an unseasonably chilly afternoon and and cold night ahead area-wide. SFO Bridge Approach.
655 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through much of the week with high pressure in place.
Expect even warmer conditions for Wednesday across the forecast area, mainly clear conditions are expected. A fairly deep upper trough will be pushing eastward across most of the U.
* Strong cold front working through on Thursday, creating the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. * Much cooler conditions behind the front Thursday night into the weekend. On the large scale, upper level ridge across the eastern US becomes squeezed as hurricane Nicole approaches from the east and trough across central Canada shifts east. Trailing cold front stalls a bit on wednesday, but as upper trough across the western US approaches the front in the western high plains, secondary low develops in southern Wyoming/northern Colorado. This developing low on Wednesday accelerates the cold front to the north and west.
The highest impacts in terms of snow amounts will be across northwest SD, with lesser snow amounts along the I-90 corridor and southward. Currently, water vapor shows digging upper low along the northern CA coast, with strong southwest flow extending through the Northern Plains. For tonight, cold front will continue to slide southeast while west coast low begins advancing inland. Wednesday, upper low will drift east/northeast through the Great Basin, then across northern WY or southern MT Wednesday night, across western SD Thursday, and into southeast ND by late Thursday. Nearly all ensemble guidance has latched on to this northern shift, including the higher-res guidance. Probabilities have increased, however, for freezing rain potential further east on the SD prairies, generally east of a Faith to Pine Ridge line, due to a further north shift in the warm layer off the surface.
Light cloud cover is expected overnight with low temperatures being in the high 50s to low 60s. High pressure aloft will remain in place across the region through Wednesday. At the same time, high pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the forecast area from the northeast. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected, highs will range from around 70 to the lower 80s.
A few showers mainly over the northwestern CWA will continue to push north with the warm front this afternoon and early evening. The warm front and associated areas of cloud cover and clear skies have resulted in a range of temperatures from the low 60s northwest to the mid 70s south. The next system will move well to our northwest on Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
Mid-level heights are a little lower today, but low-level thermal ridge will be a slightly farther e and highs of U70s-L80s should be common, warmer in the usual areas. Into Thur AM mstr will not return as w as a mid-level shrtwv trof moving from 4-Corners to plains will serve to push a Pacific front ewd. By 18Z Thur said front will extend from the Lower Trans Pecos to the far ne CWFA with w-nw post-frontal winds less than those of today. High temps will be cooler ranging from M60s- L70s across the wrn areas including SE NM to L70s-U70s across PB, with mostly 80s along the Rio Grande.
1256 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather tonight through Thursday.
But nearly 10 degrees cooler than the past two days.
Temps should continue to saturate with this advection fog, and thus have lowered min temps slightly as readings fall into the lower to mid 60s areawide. The dense FG will affect all but the LFK terminal, although the low cigs with at least patchy FG may eventually affect LFK after 07-08Z, and linger through much of the morning before gradually lifting as the sfc bndry lifts back N as a warm front.
1152 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 (Rest of tonight) There have been no significant changes to the near term grids this evening, as a mid-level ridge centered across the Arklamiss region will build northeastward into the TN Valley overnight, promoting a continuation of dry weather. At the surface, a rather strong backdoor cold front will shift rapidly west-northwestward across the CWFA during the early morning hours, with boundary layer dewpoints predicted to drop into the u40s across our northwestern zones and u20s-l30s across our southeastern zones by sunrise. Although this will contribute to cooler overnight lows compared to last night, strengthening southeasterly flow and mixing in the wake of the front will keep lows in the m40s(E)-m50s(W).
203 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 - Strong cold front moving through the region Thursday.
Here, significant snowfall remains possible closer to the low track Wednesday night into Thursday.
Very strong (~1044mb) high pressure over Ontario is influencing the weather over much of the eastern CONUS today. Anticyclonic flow around the high has resulted in northeasterly to easterly flow across our region and has also contributed to a broad temperature/dewpoint gradient across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Lows tomorrow morning will likely be in the low to mid 40s for many locations, but sheltered valleys could drop into the 30s where winds go calm.
129 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through Thursday as high pressure remains in control.
As a result of the clear skies, ridge/valley splits overnight have been a little challenging with respect to how far the eastern valleys are going to fall. Presently, opting to go colder with lows in the lower 30s through sunrise.
1222 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Skies are clear this evening as surface ridging remains in control.
Temps should continue to saturate with this advection fog, and thus have lowered min temps slightly as readings fall into the lower to mid 60s areawide.
Surface ridging to the northeast is leading to moderate east winds across much of the area. The ridge will shift a bit more to the east on Wednesday with relatively light southeast winds expected. Temperatures should be a bit warmer and drier air from the center of the upper ridge is expected to mix down during the day. Thursday a storm system moves into the northern plains as the influence of tropical cyclone Nicole moves in to the southeastern US.
By Thursday, a trough begins to dig into Southern Plains. This trough and associated frontal passage will bring the next widespread rainfall to the area. By the late afternoon into the evening, the cold front will begin to push into the northwest portions of the area. Current guidance depicts a high shear environment in the vicinity of strong forcing along the cold front. The progressive nature of the system will limit rainfall amounts across the area, with the highest amounts (0. 0 inch) along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
1135 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 A ridge aloft will maintain tranquil weather conditions across the Mid-South over the next couple days. This ridge is quite anomalous with 500 mb heights of at least 591 dam per the 00z raob data.
Drier and cooler air will continue to filter in from the E tonight. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) Another warm afternoon is underway across Central AL with a dominant ridge stationed over the eastern CONUS. East-northeasterly flow from the low to mid levels will eventually push out this warmer airmass tonight, but before then, temperatures around the mid 80s will match or threaten a few more records again this afternoon. Cooler air arrives to the area tonight as a backdoor cold front advects southwest along the spine of the Appalachians. The ridge begins to work its way towards the western Atlantic tomorrow, but remains extended across the Southeast providing us with comfortable temperatures closer to seasonal averages.
In the Snake Plain, surface temperatures will hold steady in the low-mid 30s, falling to around freezing near sunrise. Best accumulation potential remains in an area from SE Oregon through the Treasure Valley and into the west-central Idaho mountains as this area is positioned on the northwest side of the upper low. Precipitation will continue to overspread the region this evening and slowly shift to the north and then east throughout the day Wednesday as a low pressure system moves across the area. Evening temperatures will remain above freezing in the valleys, so the precipitation will start off mostly as rain in the valleys in southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Elevations above 5000 feet in the Central Mountains will see accumulations around 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible near ridgetops.
250 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Summer-like upper level ridge in place along/east of the Mississippi River Valley with Tropical Storm Nicole headed toward Florida. Across southeast Michigan, with the long nights and weaker insolation, tough to scour out the cooler air in the low levels, as 00z DTX showed an 850 MB temp of 8 C, with 925 MB backed flow indicating a temp of 3 C. With the nearly calm winds, the good radiators have even dipped into the lower 30s/around 30 degrees early this morning. Longwave upper level trough over the Rockies today with the moisture plume advancing northeast up through the Plains.
A developing Plains low will send southerly flow and warmer air our direction over the next two days. Normal highs this time of year are around 50F, so we will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal tomorrow and near 20 degrees warmer on Thursday.
257 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 The main forecast concerns in the short-term portion of the forecast will be the above normal temperatures through Thursday and then the timing of strong cold front Thursday night. The cold front will bring some of the coldest air so far this season, especially over the weekend.
Mean layer ridging centered over the Mississippi River Valley sits upstream from the lower tropospheric ridge which spills to the northeast into the Great Lakes. The ridging is under assault from the large cold- core cyclone pressing east into the Rockies. Height rises on the 00Z CONUS RAOBS are relegated to New England, highlighting the ridge's impending exit stage right. With the repositioning of the ridge, the impetus for Nicole's movement to the southwest and west will end, with a turn to the northwest then north expected after Wednesday evening's landfall along Florida's east coast. The forecast calls for the best rain chances across the Upper Keys, with only 40% chances for the Lower and Middle Keys.
(Rest of tonight) There have been no significant changes to the near term grids this evening, as a mid-level ridge centered across the Arklamiss region will build northeastward into the TN Valley overnight, promoting a continuation of dry weather. At the surface, a rather strong backdoor cold front will shift rapidly west-northwestward across the CWFA during the early morning hours, with boundary layer dewpoints predicted to drop into the u40s across our northwestern zones and u20s-l30s across our southeastern zones by sunrise. Although this will contribute to cooler overnight lows compared to last night, strengthening southeasterly flow and mixing in the wake of the front will keep lows in the m40s(E)-m50s(W).
Expect slightly warmer conditions in areas adjacent to the area waters. High pressure will bring dry and cool weather to the area.
We've one more day of above normal temperatures in store on Thursday with abundant sunshine and a dry atmosphere in place (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) A strong cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee Thursday night. The cold front will interact with the remnants of Nicole to product potentially heavy rain across the Cumberland Plateau.
1040 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Forecast area will remain on the western extent of a sprawling ridge located over the eastern US extending back to the Continental Divide. Nocturnal LLJ has mixed out for the day, but a gradient flow around the sprawling ridge will keep things breezy this afternoon as well as the evening as a stronger LLJ develops around sunset and beyond.
130 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thursday.
454 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Dry, pleasant weather will prevail through Thursday as high pressure remains in control.
Continued southerly flow of 20-30mph drives temps into the low 70s for areas south and east of Norfolk. In fact, our temps will hardly have a normal diurnal curve with highs set generally as the front passes, meaning it'll be warmer for breakfast than at lunch. Heck, a Wednesday night midnight snack would be warmer yet.
Hazardous driving conditions will remain possible from both new snow and freezing of melted snow.
556 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Today through tonight: Strong subsidence between the persistent ridge axis and outer envelope of TC Nicole will result in significantly drier conditions over the forecast area in the near term.