Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A large area of high pressure across the mid Mississippi valley ridging eastward into the Tennessee valley was providing for sunny skies and temps in the low to mid 70s across the forecast area. As the high pressure area moves across the region this evening, winds will become light and variable and temps will drop into the low to mid 50s by morning. A cold front will move southeast out of the lower Ohio valley late tonight, and through the forecast area on Saturday with just a few clouds and no precipitation expected. Cold advection in the afternoon in the wake of the cold frontal passage will keep temps into the low to mid 70s across the area.
Northwesterly flow will keep temps cooler in the mid 70s and WV satellite shows drier air filtering into the region to provide mostly clear to clear skies across the forecast area.
/ISSUED / The cold front or whats left of the cold front is currently moving through the forecast area.
Warm, windy, and dry today, and for the most part tomorrow before unsettled and cooler weather returns by Saturday night. KELY will be the highest with KTPH second.
Convection is developing in greater concentrations near the lower Apalachicola River, and in parts of Taylor and Lafayette Counties, which closely matches recent runs of the HRRR and other hi-res models. This evening, drier air should begin to push into the area as the cold front passes through. Lows will be from the upper 50s northwest to the low-mid 60s south of I-10.
A Low pressure system off the west coast will bring increasing southwest winds, cooling temperatures, and slight chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
An upper level low will move towards the Oregon coast tonight producing a deep marine push, and possibly generating thunderstorms across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington.
248 PM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 An upper level ridge over the western U. There will be enough moisture to generate convection over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Upper blocking pattern consists of a ridge in the western United States and a trough in the eastern United states, with northwest flow aloft here. A cold front is on its way from the north this morning and should sweep through most of the CWA during the morning. The cooler air lingers into Saturday night, but temperatures moderate a little and should be warm enough to keep frost at bay.
224 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Convection firing along a cold front which was pushing southeast across the upper MS valley and central Plains. Should see cold front and convection continue to push southeast during the remainder of the afternoon with a hail and wind risk mainly northwest of our CWA. High pressure will move in from the northwest later tonight behind the front and will bring much cooler air to the area for Saturday. That cool high pressure will move overhead on Saturday night and may see some upper 30s temperatures over the northeastern CWA, with the remainder of the area in the 40s.
245 PM PDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Warm high pressure gives way to another Pacific weather system that moves into Nevada Saturday afternoon and night.
159 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure remains across South Florida with onshore/sea breeze circulations moving further inland. /issued 732 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ A strong surface based ridge is keeping VFR conditions across the terminals this morning.
Dewpoints ahead and along the front are in the low 70s/upper 60s.
442 PM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 An upper level ridge over the western U. There will be enough moisture to generate convection over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under the east side of an upper ridge extending from central Mexico NW thru the PacNW. At the sfc, a trough extending from NE NM thru IA is prompting a steady fetch of return flow throughout the region, with dewpoints in the 60s backed up against the higher terrain. Meanwhile, to the north of the Central Plains trough, a cold front is poised to move thru the area Sat/Sat night, and stall near or before the Pecos.
1216 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Cold front now across the central plains will affect the forecast area during the second half of the forecast period. 15z subjective surface analysis indicates high pressure centered just northeast of little rock. A new cold front will drop south into the state late in the period. this will be short lived as another cold front will drop south through the state late tonight into Sat morning. with another shot of cooler and drier air to the state.
A cold front is forecast to approach the northern Big Country after midnight, with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. On Saturday, a cold front will be across the Big Country and slowly move south, approaching the Interstate 10 corridor by mid to late afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to near 70 across the Big Country to the low to mid 80s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
326 PM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Cold front has pushed through all of the lower elevations of the CWA with upslope flow in place. Northwest flow aloft ahead of an upper ridge will continue through Saturday along with little in the QG dynamics department. An upper level trough over the Pacific northwest will gradually make its way south and east towards Colorado over the weekend.
353 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front will drop rapidly southeast from the upper midwest and cross our area tonight.
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front will return showers to the forecast late tonight, with much cooler and unsettled weather expected for the weekend. Building high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather this evening as diurnal cu/stratocu dissipates. A cold front is expected to approach late tonight with increasing shower chances. Maintained categorical pops with the passage of a cold front early Saturday morning, with sufficient deep layer moisture and ascent.
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A prefrontal trough continues to make its way southward into NW OK this afternoon. Cumulus are becoming more numerous along this trough where inhibition is limited and mlcape has climbed to around 1-1. The best moisture convergence still appears it will be over western and southwestern OK through this evening so expect the highest coverage there.
High pressure will extend into the area tonight. A cold front will push through the region on Saturday. We start the period with a cold front just off to our southeast. much cooler and drier air will spill into the region from out of the northwest.
1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 VFR until MVFR ceilings spread south after midnight with a cold front. Cold frontal passage then arrives after midnight with low clouds perhaps reaching IFR at times, but MVFR with some showers seems the most likely scenario at this time. This trough will be draped from southeastern New Mexico into the eastern Texas Panhandle by late this afternoon and also ahead of a strong front. This cold front will be the primary driver of convective development during the overnight hours.
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front will move across the area this morning and maybe early afternoon. A dry cold front is forecast to move to central GA at days end Saturday. BDL The dry pattern will get reinforced by a dry cold front that sweeps across the area Saturday night.
414 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Cold front currently moving through the coastal waters.
152 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure will move across the area today providing fair weather with highs in the 60s. A cold front will drop rapidly accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
208 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front crossing the Midlands this afternoon will move off the coast this evening. High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight bringing cooler and drier air. A dry front will move through the region Saturday evening with additional cooler air behind the front.
1133 AM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Basin will be shifting east over the next 48 hours with the ridge axis centered over Western Colorado by late Saturday afternoon. Expect another dry day today with subsident flow on eastern flanks of the approaching ridge. As the ridge slides overhead on Saturday. expect to see a subtle increase in moisture with a few showers and high based storms developing over the higher terrain. Guidance temps showing a little spread today and will side with the warmer MET numbers.
Low temperatures will average in the low to mid 60s.
On Saturday, a weak outflow boundary moving down from the north combined with a cold front moving down from north Texas will bring additional rainfall chances to south central Texas.
512 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front crossing the Midlands this afternoon will move off the coast this evening. High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight bringing cooler and drier air. A dry front will move through the region Saturday evening with additional cooler air behind the front.
The majority of rain will slide east by mid-day, however, we'll need to watch for a few convective showers over the Buffalo Ridge at peak heating this afternoon. Very high confidence that temperatures will fall into the lower 30s, but any further fall into the 20s remains a bit in question due to the slightly elevated nature of the sfc winds. Generally though, sub-freezing temperatures should advect southward, and will issue a freeze warning for areas that may experience a couple hours of 29-32 temperatures.
246 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Most of the Midwest under west/northwesterly flow aloft from a broad closed low btwn the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay this afternoon. After the sun sets, the severe threat should diminish quickly, even if the thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening until the cold front clears the region.
/issued 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under the east side of an upper ridge extending from central Mexico NW thru the PacNW. At the sfc, a trough extending from NE NM thru IA is prompting a steady fetch of return flow throughout the region, with dewpoints in the 60s backed up against the higher terrain. Meanwhile, to the north of the Central Plains trough, a cold front is poised to move thru the area Sat/Sat night, and stall near or before the Pecos.
/issued 956 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ Water Vapor imagery showing longwave trough from the Great Lakes swinging into the Deep South pushing a weak surface front into the Northern Gulf Coast region this morning. Weak Western Atlantic high pressure extends back into the area while weak frontal boundary sags into the E Gulf today.
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Lots of sunshine out there early this afternoon across Central Alabama, as much drier air continues to filter southward following passage of the cold front. Much cooler temperatures can be expected tonight, with upper 40s possible across the northern valley locations and 50s elsewhere. We'll have yet another shot of cooler air coming in on Saturday evening, but before the front gets here we could see some warmer temperatures, especially across the southern half of Central Alabama.
331 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 An upper jet/speed max will barrel across the upper Mississippi valley this evening, and drive a cold front thru the PAH FA overnight. After tonight-early tmrw, much cooler and drier air works across the FA in the wake of the Fropa.
An upper trof over the eastern portion of the country, although becoming less sharp, will bring another fast moving reinforcing front across the fcst area late Saturday (and Saturday night). Low temperatures tonight ranging from the low 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. High temperatures on Saturday in the low to mid 80s across the area, with the cooler temps closer to the coast.
Thunderstorm activity may increase near the high terrain later this afternoon and farther south this evening. Otherwise, a cold front will arrive Saturday morning, shifting winds to the E/NE and increasing the chances for some scattered convection toward the end of the TAF period. A cold front that moved through the area yesterday has begun to wash out with southeasterly winds returning this morning. Aloft, ridging was building to our west with northwesterly mid level flow developing across our area. Models indicate a very unstable airmass this afternoon, however there won't be much of a trigger for convection other than the higher terrain. Meanwhile, a cold front will sink south across the TX Panhandle tonight with more showers and thunderstorms developing along this boundary.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN LATE.
Slight chances will continue farther west through the early evening along the theta-e ridge, however most locations should remain dry. Midlevel s/w trough will swing east across the mountains of Mexico which will fire off convection overnight, with slow movement east. For Saturday, the s/w trough over Mexico will continue to shift east. Conditions remain dry early on for Saturday but rain chances will gradually increase through the afternoon into Saturday night as remnants of the weak frontal boundary sag south and the H7 trough slowly swings farther east.
221 PM MST FRI MAY 13 2016 A high pressure system over the region will result in above normal temperatures through Saturday.
1110 AM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION With the upper level ridge building in, drier air/subsidence should limit shower activity through this evening for much of central and Southwest Montana. High pressure aloft will then help stabilize the atmosphere overnight, allowing mid level clouds to become more scattered.
741 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will trigger a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly east of Interstate 81. Skies will clear tonight under high pressure and allow patchy valley fog to form toward morning. High pressure remains in control Wednesday bringing a warm and sunny day.
/issued 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ WV imagery this aftn shows the upper ridge centered over our region, and our 2 pm temps confirm its influence. However, as we move into the weekend, the ridge will shift just far enough w to allow for some weakness on the ern periphery.
447 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2016 The high system will weaken into midweek.
/issued 340 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ A nearly persistent weather pattern will prevail through the weekend, courtesy of a dominate 594dm 500mb height ridge centered over the southern plains and western portions of the lower MS River valley. Initially, weak northwest flow around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will bring chances of rain to the TN River valley. GFS and ECMWF bring a slight bump in Midsouth rain chances for the weekend, despite the upper ridge center edging east toward the lower MS River valley.
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Thunderstorm activity will increase overnight into Wednesday as a cold front enters the area and stalls.
A cold front will sweep into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Wednesday. Much drier and somewhat cooler air will follow the front, with still warm and somewhat moist conditions over the south. The upper low currently over the Pacific Northwest will race east across the northern Rockies on Wednesday. The associated surface cold front extending from southwest Montana through northwest Nevada will quickly move into extreme northwest Utah early Wednesday. This cooler and drier air will likely drive temps down about 5 to 10 degrees for Wednesday.
mainly for KLFT/KARA again where capping will be least with the ridge aloft expected to start retrograding. High pressure aloft remains over the region this afternoon, and even though the sea breeze boundary is slowly pushing inland from the coast, convection is having a rough go with the ridge in place.
(Issued 240 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016) A dampened ridge exists over portions of the southern plains/Southeast as evidenced by water vapor sat imagery showing a ring of convection around the center over E TX. Poleward of this ridge, a couple of troughs are on opposite coasts of North America. However, a weak upper low evident on water vapor and guidance is expected to develop late tonight over AR and could shift east early Wednesday morning. Depending on the coverage of these storms, the daytime highs in the low 90s may be in jeopardy.
Short Term Update - Ridging will remain north of our area through the overnight period, while Tropical Storm Earl moves off into the Western Caribbean. Moderate to occasionally fresh synoptic flow due to a ridge to our north and Tropical Storm Earl will gradually relax overnight.
1157 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Light/southeast gradient will hold through the morning period as high pressure maintains control. Otherwise, simply a limited coverage of diurnal cu again for Wednesday under the presence of increasingly dry/stable mid level ridging.
Overnight lows will be generally in the low/mid 70s.
Left in mention of fog as rainfall from earlier has kept dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and lows look to hit those temps as well.
831 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2016 The high will weaken into midweek.
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will then bring dry and seasonable temperatures for the rest of this work week.
Subtropical moisture continues to ride into the state over an upper ridge stretched across New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. Overnight lows will remain slightly warmer than normal for this time of year.
1057 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Convection has developed over the higher terrain this afternoon with very little drift towards the north. Expect most activity to remain anchored to the higher terrain due to lighter steering flow with most activity ending after sunset.
838 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight and will settle south off the coast on Wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire period as high pressure settles into the region. With the 500mb ridge centered nearly overhead.
/Issued 937 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ Short wave trough rotating around the northern periphery of mid/upper level ridge resulting in some mid/high clouds brushing nern OK, sern KS, and swrn MO this evening. Winds will be light overnight with few clouds tomorrow under the upper ridge. The broad upper ridge over the southern half of the conus refuses to budge through the course of the week. With thermal ridge just off to the west. Precip chances increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend across the higher terrain and along the front, but overall coverage remains a bit uncertain.
937 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Short wave trough rotating around the northern periphery of mid/upper level ridge resulting in some mid/high clouds brushing nern OK, sern KS, and swrn MO this evening. Winds will be light overnight with few clouds tomorrow under the upper ridge. The broad upper ridge over the southern half of the conus refuses to budge through the course of the week. With thermal ridge just off to the west. Precip chances increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend across the higher terrain and along the front, but overall coverage remains a bit uncertain.
A low pressure system over Washington was slowly moving away from the region.
/issued 949 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ Fair skies and a couple or few degrees warmer this mid evening than the last several evenings. Our sounding this evening showed little if any change at all to the 500 mb height, but a few more triple digit highs will lag the mid level ridge overhead.
Winds will be light overnight with few clouds tomorrow under the upper ridge. The broad upper ridge over the southern half of the conus refuses to budge through the course of the week. With thermal ridge just off to the west. Precip chances increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend across the higher terrain and along the front, but overall coverage remains a bit uncertain.
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A subtle trough boundary will finish moving east through the Northland. High pressure will move into the Northland tonight, providing clear skies and negligible wind speeds overnight. Leaned on the cooler guidance, such as the consensus of the MOS, considering the good radiational cooling expected. The high pressure will shift east through the Great Lakes region Wednesday, and warm southerly flow will develop across the Northland.
949 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Fair skies and a couple or few degrees warmer this mid evening than the last several evenings. Our sounding this evening showed little if any change at all to the 500 mb height, but a few more triple digit highs will lag the mid level ridge overhead. /issued 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ WV imagery this aftn shows the upper ridge centered over our region, and our 2 pm temps confirm its influence. However, as we move into the weekend, the ridge will shift just far enough w to allow for some weakness on the ern periphery.
but strong subsidence from the ridge aloft and lack of forcing kept coverage to a minimum. With weak high pressure still in place and the pattern that we are in still not much change in the forecast for the next few days. it hangs up well north of the forecast area but it will help suppress the high over Bermuda some.
1254 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight and will settle south off the coast on Wednesday.
A dry cold front was moving through the area this evening, extending from near McCall to Caldwell to Rome, OR as of 830 pm MDT. This front will usher in cooler air, bringing Wednesday's highs down into the mid 80s for lower elevations.
946 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeastern states will sink southward overnight as a cold front moves into the area from the north.
GFS developing a triple point low and bringing a rather bullish amount of QPF across the north, especially compared to the NAM, vicinity of warm frontal boundary and nose of theta-e ridge. Convection then develops ahead of cold front as it approaches valley which should heat out nicely by FROPA. Global models seem a little overdone with pcpn potential to our west tomorrow morning when compared with the high resolution model guidance so think there will be less cloud cover in the early am. Tomorrow, a cold front will reach the central Dakotas at prime heating. Only draw back is that convective temperatures are in the lower 90s but forcing may be able to overcome this.
723 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeastern states will sink southward overnight as a cold front moves into the area from the north.
1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Models still forecasting some pcpn to develop toward midnight when the low level jet gets going. Will need to watch in case this takes a bit of an eastward shift, as hinted at by some of the higher resolution models.
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Models still forecasting some pcpn to develop toward midnight when the low level jet gets going. Will need to watch in case this takes a bit of an eastward shift, as hinted at by some of the higher resolution models.
a cold front will move into the region around 3am bringing another chance for isolated thunderstorms with small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Proton An upper ridge will push downstream while a trough digs into the northwest part of the state. A cold front will push through on Wednesday with a wind shift to the west and northwest.
1044 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will continue to slowly build south over our region, and then shift offshore late in the week.
However, a weak upper low evident on water vapor and guidance is expected to develop late tonight over AR and could shift east early Wednesday morning. Depending on the coverage of these storms, the daytime highs in the low 90s may be in jeopardy.