Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southerly flow will keep our temperatures warmer tonight than what we saw this morning. Temperatures will be a bit cooler up there- (lower to mid 70s north of I-20) as winds switch around out of the east. Elsewhere, look for highs to climb into the lower to mid 80s.
The upper low continues to pull away from the area this afternoon as skies are beginning to clear in the west. High pressure ridging will build in on Halloween with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 70s.
354 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Gusty northwest winds are being observed behind a cold front that pushed across the local area today. and opted to match up with our neighbors and issue a frost advisory for early Sunday morning for a few counties mainly west of Highway 183 that have yet to experience widespread freezing temperatures. or about 10C cooler than this afternoon. combined with increasing mid level cloud cover should make for a much cooler day tomorrow. This should be the start of a prolonged stretch of cool weather as an upper level trough across Canada dips southward. As the main trough digs south Sunday night.
As the low finally lifts to the northeast into Pennsylvania, winds will back to the northwest and should see erosion of the clouds accelerate for the rest of the afternoon. Looking further northwest, a cold front is moving east over the northern Plains. A period of clearing is likely to occur this evening prior to the arrival of the cold front overnight. Moisture through the column will be rather disjointed, with mid and high clouds outpacing the clouds in the lower levels. An upper trough will be digging across the region while the cold front exits in the morning.
A few light showers are already moving into Deschutes County, and based on the expected path of the low went ahead and increased shower chances slightly today. Then made a few changes based on morning lows, might be a slightly cooler day by a degree or two than previously forecast and made the adjustments there as necessary.
Cooler temperatures with most of the area in the low 50s currently. Upper level low will continue to slowly move NE but low level cloudiness impacts should last thru much of valid TAF period.
350 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 The cold front that swept through our forecast area earlier in the day is exiting to the east and southeast and away from our CWA this afternoon. It will remain cool through the day with readings only reaching the low to mid 40s. Chilly conditions expected once again for Sunday evening for trick-or- treaters as temperature readings fall from the low 40s early through the 30s into the upper 20s by late evening. The models all show mean upper level low pressure troughing in eastern Canada/eastern U.
An upper low over the eastern Conus moves off, with zonal upper flow setting up over the Southeast. A wrap-around stratus deck created by the exiting upper low will move off into tonight.
646 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front has moved across the terminal sites with north winds in its wake. /Issued 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021/ A cold front will push south across the Panhandles overnight. This blanket of clouds will try to keep temperatures up, but believe the low clouds not happen until very late or even after sunrise, so still think temperatures will still have a chance to reach the 33 to 36 degree range. Sunday will be much cooler behind the front with highs in the mid 50's to the mid 60's.
740 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Aviation - Brief clearing overnight into Sunday - Light showers possible Sunday - Cold air influx through the week with chance of showers -- Brief clearing overnight into Sunday -- The upper level low will move eastward as a positively tilted ridge builds over the region tonight. This ridge will allow for dry air over the region which will bring clearing skies. The overnight clearing will be short lived as the ridge aloft will give way to a deepening upper level trough. -- Light showers possible Sunday -- An upper level low situated over central Canada will have several short wave troughs associated with it.
An upper low continues to move slowly northeast through WV into PA. For the most part, a strong inversion will keep low clouds in place until better ridging and subsidence arrives on Sunday. High temperatures should rebound nicely into the middle to upper 60s expect for the highest plateau areas with upper 50s to around 60.
A cold front will continue to track across northwest Minnesota through the late afternoon with gusty northwest winds persisting across eastern ND and northwest MN during the late afternoon. Patchy mid to high level clouds are possible Sunday morning over Northwest Minnesota, with cloud cover increasing during the afternoon as a secondary cold front pushes down from central Canada.
608 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 The cold front that swept through our forecast area earlier in the day is exiting to the east and southeast and away from our CWA this afternoon. It will remain cool through the day with readings only reaching the low to mid 40s. Chilly conditions expected once again for Sunday evening for trick-or- treaters as temperature readings fall from the low 40s early through the 30s into the upper 20s by late evening. The models all show mean upper level low pressure troughing in eastern Canada/eastern U.
With the high pressure, clear skies are expected throughout the TAF cycle. Otherwise, high pressure remaining in close vicinity tomorrow results in light variable winds through the day along with clear VFR skies.
1041 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A deep layered area of low pressure will affect much of the Eastern United States through today.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing through much of the evening hours, with areas across northwest Nebraska approaching freezing towards midnight. Since temperatures will be above freezing this evening, any precipitation that does fall should be rain, then change to a rain/snow mix closer towards midnight.
518 PM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the region with gusty winds gradually decreasing in most areas. Upper level analysis shows trough crossing the Northern Plains and south central Canada, with upper jet mostly from eastern MT to ND and northern SD. A colder pattern will develop over the area for the next several days as the upper trough gradually settles across the central US into the Great Lakes region. Disturbances will pass through the back side of the trough, from the northern Rockies into the central Plains, and interact with tighter baroclinic zone that will drift south across the region with time.
Geopotential heights expected to rise this period, as an upper low over the Appalachian region drifts off to the east. Cold advection, and some weak vorticity lobes rotating around the upper low, may result in some widely scattered light showers for the balance of the afternoon and early evening hours. The potential for showers will diminish with time as the upper low pulls away. Short term model data suggest the lower cloud will break up from the west later in the afternoon Sunday, and on into the evening hours, as the inversion breaks up.
Shallow cold front will veer winds out of a northerly component at all terminals with passage over KHOB/KCNM b/w 06-09z with KFST seeing fropa ~15z as boundary moves south. N of the cold front high temps Mon will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today, despite sunny skies.
626 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Key Points: -Cooler than normal conditions expected this week as a series of disturbance introduce cooler air to the region. cold front has worked into northern and central Nebraska with gusts in the 25-35 knot range behind the front.
1024 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Deep low pressure will affect the area until high pressure builds and generally prevails into mid week. Lows in the upper 40s well inland, to the lower to mid 50s near the coast.
Forecast is on track this evening with quiet conditions ahead of the approaching cold front currently into far NW OK. VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period, with the possible exception of some MVFR cigs filtering in behind a passing cold front tomorrow morning. Settled conditions will continue into tomorrow, though temperatures across the northern half the area will cool down as a result of a cold front moving through the area, along with a period of enhanced cloud cover behind the front. Though a wind shift is expected to occur across the entire area, the cooler air will lag some, so temperatures across the southern zones will likely rival those observed today.
/issued 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021/ A progressive low amplitude ridge continues its pass east across the region this afternoon.
Although low pressure continues to pull away from Middle Tennessee, there is still a swath of low- level moisture still to rotate through the mid state.
749 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A deep layered area of low pressure will affect much of the Eastern United States through today.
639 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Gusty northwest winds are being observed behind a cold front that pushed across the local area today. and opted to match up with our neighbors and issue a frost advisory for early Sunday morning for a few counties mainly west of Highway 183 that have yet to experience widespread freezing temperatures. or about 10C cooler than this afternoon. combined with increasing mid level cloud cover should make for a much cooler day tomorrow. This should be the start of a prolonged stretch of cool weather as an upper level trough across Canada dips southward. As the main trough digs south Sunday night.
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A sprawling upper low above the central Appalachian Mountains late this afternoon lifts up to New England by Sun afternoon as upper ridging from Mexico to the central plains begins to slide east. Low pressure in the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico gets reinforced by high pressure moving south from the high plains tonight then building into the east Gulf Sun. High pressure builds into the Gulf Sun then slides east with a relaxing gradient.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight, with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s. Much cooler temperatures for the week ahead. In the wake of this system, a cold front sweeps in late in the day. There is a low chance for a brief shower toward Lake Michigan as well late in the day as the cold front arrives; will offer a silent 10% pop for now.
Temperature wise, models have been struggling with the overnight, with most being significantly warmer than current observations. Lows will be in the low-50s north of I-4, then mid to upper-50s through the rest of the area. Boating conditions will begin to improve areawide early Sunday morning as high pressure builds southwestward.
655 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 An extended stretch of drier and much cooler weather will arrive for the coming week.
The cold front that swept through our forecast area earlier in the day is exiting to the east and southeast and away from our CWA this afternoon. It will remain cool through the day with readings only reaching the low to mid 40s. Chilly conditions expected once again for Sunday evening for trick-or- treaters as temperature readings fall from the low 40s early through the 30s into the upper 20s by late evening. The models all show mean upper level low pressure troughing in eastern Canada/eastern U.
541 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Surface cold front roughly splitting the coverage area early this afternoon with gusty northwesterly winds behind it and temperatures in the 60s out ahead of it. Temperatures overnight fall to near or below the freezing mark although with winds remaining elevated, should prevent the full cooling potential. Base of the upper level trough sits over the region for Halloween with mostly clear skies and somewhat breezy northwest winds in the 10-20 mph range. Afternoon temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today or mainly 40s across the region. Forecast for the upcoming work week looks to be characterized by below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions as the region sits on the backside of upper level troughing to the east with developing ridging to our west by late week.
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period, with the possible exception of some MVFR cigs filtering in behind a passing cold front tomorrow morning. Settled conditions will continue into tomorrow, though temperatures across the northern half the area will cool down as a result of a cold front moving through the area, along with a period of enhanced cloud cover behind the front. Though a wind shift is expected to occur across the entire area, the cooler air will lag some, so temperatures across the southern zones will likely rival those observed today.
High pressure then builds in place over the area for the next few days. Again we could see some patchy river fog overnight as the water temperatures remain higher than surrounding land areas, although the last few cooler days would have helped reduce that difference.
430 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Mostly quiet and pleasant conditions expected through much of the upcoming week as high pressure settles into the area. Afternoon highs gradually moderate from the mid 70s to around 80 into the low/mid 80s through mid week, while lows in the lower 50s to mid 60s tick up slightly to mostly in the 60s areawide during the week. Lingering showers early over central and southern waters give way to improving conditions later today as high pressure builds over the waters with residual swells abating and winds decreasing as the gradient relaxes. Cooler/drier air mass filters into the state during the early part of the week as high pressure builds into the region.
In the interim, cooler air will will be spreading over the mild waters of lake Michigan.
1254 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Summary: A cold front will pass through this afternoon and evening, bringing a period of clouds tonight and gusty northwest winds. Cool temperatures will remain in place for most of the week with some warmer weather by the end of the week. Visible satellite, radar, and observations show a quick-moving cold front passing across northern Minnesota this afternoon. A broad upper-level trough will support the light precipitation chances and cloud cover through the early week. Additional short waves mid-week will reinforce the cool air mass, though some drier air and high pressure will likely result in more sunshine mid- to late-week.
The mid-level trough moves away late tonight with the flow becoming zonal out of the west-northwest by Sunday. The column will be much drier on Sunday as a sprawling ridge of high pressure over the Great Plains makes headway into the region. A mostly sunny and dry day is in store, with high temperatures in the low to mid-70s. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with lows ranging from the upper 40s across inland areas to mid 50s along the coast.
340 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 The 07Z surface analysis shows that the pesky low pressure system has moved off to the northeast and its influence should be winding down in eastern Kentucky. By 00Z Monday, quasi-zonal flow in the upper levels will be located over the Commonwealth with rebounding heights at the surface as high pressure builds in from the west. A dry cold front will make its way through eastern Kentucky Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Mainly adjusted PoPs to come in line with higher resolution models that maintain rain chances just in the higher terrain for the remainder of the night. Upper low continues to pull away to the NE and we are now on the western periphery of upper jet support. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 46 67 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 45 64 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 44 64 44 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 43 62 41 57 / 10 0 0 0 10.
Today Through Monday Night A large upper low pressure system continues over the eastern U. with an upper ridge over the Rockies. The upper ridge will weaken as it moves east today and northwest flow will become zonal. Northwest flow returns to the area Monday night as an upper low moves north of the Great Lakes. A cold front will move through the state today but a fair amount of heating will occur ahead of the front. Cooler conditions tonight will lead to some patchy frost in the far north.
1242 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 High pressure and clear skies will continue through the period.
High pressure system will continue to dominate the region through the short term period. As the high shifts east into the Southeastern CONUS, return flow will bring slightly warmer conditions. Highs will generally be in the low 80s, with the warmest readings over our far southwestern counties. Temperatures will quickly fall into the low to mid 60s this evening, thus, keep a light jacket handy if you have any trick-or-treat activities. A weak coastal trough will develop over the Texas coast tonight.
Skies will otherwise remain mostly clear with continued cooler than normal temperatures, as high pressure builds into the area on Monday. The lingering low level moisture will also make roads slick in spots, especially on bridges and overpasses. Otherwise, the northwest flow aloft will weaken and start to shift east today, and daytime heating should help burn off much of the low cloudiness. High pressure ridging will then move into the area on Monday, likely keeping skies sunny with continued light winds. However, temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the period, with highs mostly in the 30s to lower 40s.
1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A broad area of low stratus clouds persists across the TN Valley this evening, in the wake of an elongated mid/upper-level trough now lifting northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic region. As this occurs, the combination of light winds, clearing skies and nearly saturated conditions in the boundary layer may allow patchy fog to develop, with the highest probabilities for visibility reductions occurring west of the I-65 corridor. High temperatures should rebound nicely into the middle to upper 60s expect for the highest plateau areas with upper 50s to around 60. Another shallow cold front will arrive Sunday night into early Monday morning, but will be dry. High temperatures will be tempered a couple degrees in the lower to middle 60s on Monday afternoon.
Water vapour depicted upper trough over central Canada, extending into the northern plains. Trough interacting with baroclinic zone north of frontal boundary resulting in patchy light precipitation over southwest third of the CWA. Today/tonight, upper trough inches eastward with continued forcing over baroclinic zone.
Temperatures will be much lower in the wake of a cold front with highs struggling to climb out of the 50s. With sfc wetbulb temperatures progged around 3C we could see a few wet snowflakes mix in early however no accumulation is anticipated at this time and the higher probabilities are expected to remain north of our forecast area.
340 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 (Issued 340 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021) Today through Monday night: Cold front exiting off to our east this morning. Bufkit soundings show the moisture in the lower levels that will decrease later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Overall the column remains dry through Monday night with a cool regime with the lower level thermal trough in place. Looks like most areas will have freezing temperatures for Monday night.
Clouds are expected to rapidly decrease this morning as high pressure and a dry airmass builds into the area. Afternoon highs are expected to be mainly in the lower 70s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s across the cooler inland locations to mid 50s along the coast.
Cold front still to move quickly across forecast area. Mid level trough evident on satellite this eve, but airmass is fairly dry. KPL (Issued 341 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Lingering cu and stratcu is expected to dissipate through the remaining afternoon hours and evening as a deep cut of subsidence continues to work to eat away at the low level moisture. 500mb ridging will keep overnight temperatures comparatively mild before a cold front moves overhead after midnight and brings winds to northwesterly. Highs will be in the low 50s, although it'll feel colder with the brisk wind. Tomorrow night, winds will back of some but it'll grow cold under the clear skies with lows around 30 and wind chills into the low 20s.
A dry cold front is currently moving through the forecast area. High pressure will build behind the front and cold air advection will bring much cooler air in from Canada. High temperatures for tomorrow will 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today.
129 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Deep low pressure will affect the area until high pressure builds and generally prevails into mid week. Deep low pressure will be weakening Sunday allowing high pressure to build in through Monday night.
Looks to be kind of a dirty ridge however, and cloudiness on Monday will likely help to hold temperatures down in the 50s to near 60 degrees.
137 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Aviation - Brief clearing overnight into Sunday - Light showers possible Sunday - Cold air influx through the week with chance of showers -- Brief clearing overnight into Sunday -- The upper level low will move eastward as a positively tilted ridge builds over the region tonight. This ridge will allow for dry air over the region which will bring clearing skies.
923 PM PDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Drier weather will be in place this weekend, with cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds.
However, high pressure will build into the region, and ample sunshine today will bring the temps back up into the low to mid 70s by later this afternoon.
For the next 6 to 9 hours of the TAF period, while VFR conditions are expected, there is a chance that we briefly saturate in the low level and get some low clouds to develop, which would likely bring IFR/LIFR conditions. /Issued 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021/ A cold front will push south across the Panhandles overnight. This blanket of clouds will try to keep temperatures up, but believe the low clouds not happen until very late or even after sunrise, so still think temperatures will still have a chance to reach the 33 to 36 degree range. Sunday will be much cooler behind the front with highs in the mid 50's to the mid 60's.
A broad area of low stratus clouds persists across the TN Valley this evening, in the wake of an elongated mid/upper-level trough now lifting northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic region. As this occurs, the combination of light winds, clearing skies and nearly saturated conditions in the boundary layer may allow patchy fog to develop, with the highest probabilities for visibility reductions occurring west of the I-65 corridor. High temperatures should rebound nicely into the middle to upper 60s expect for the highest plateau areas with upper 50s to around 60. Another shallow cold front will arrive Sunday night into early Monday morning, but will be dry. High temperatures will be tempered a couple degrees in the lower to middle 60s on Monday afternoon.
234 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Cold front is approaching Tulsa from the northwest early this morning. The front will continue south and east across the region today and will eventually stall in the terrain of SE OK and W AR by tonight, as the cooler air will become increasingly more shallow with southward and eastward extent. Temps down near the Red River may be around 20 degrees warmer than across NE OK and NW AR.
A cold front currently on the doorstep of the Mississippi River will shift across the CWA this morning. Post-frontal NW gusts to 30 mph can be expected through late afternoon before diminishing with nocturnal decoupling and a slight weakening of the low-level pressure gradient. In fact, conditions tonight may be a "freeze or nothing" scenario with only patchy frost where temps remain above freezing. With the extended growing season waning even in the absence of freezing temps, did not get too aggressive with headlines on this shift. Across the remainder of the CWA away from central Cook County, temps near freezing are likely, with an hour or two below freezing possible.
This will keep overnight lows a couple of degrees warmer than last night.