Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Flurries will quickly taper off this morning as mid-level cyclonic flow moves off to the north and east and the atmospheric profile dries out in the low levels. Most of the day today looks to be quiet as some subtle mid-level ridging and negative vorticity develops at the 500 mb level.
However, current observations do indicate that frequent gusts to 30+ are still occurring at the higher elevations in the NE portion of the CWFA. Skies will clear from the west tonight with mostly sunny skies for Tuesday as the H5 ridge builds over the region. Some areas in the higher elevations could remain strong and gusty a little further into the evening.
Respectable warmup is expected today due to compressional warming from downsloping west and southwest winds, in spite of passage of Pacific cold front.
1008 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017 Latest satellite and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure over the Great Basin. Ahead of the front, the atmosphere mixed well in the lower elevations of southeast UT and portions of western CO with highs in the lower elevations well into the 40s and near 50. The Durango/Pagosa areas remained near or just below freezing, so precipitation late this afternoon will likely fall as mainly snow. Winds aloft are really humming with gusts over 80 mph reported in the high San Juans.
408 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low level moisture slow to exit with weak high pressure moving in. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow. Upper level trough aloft will continue its exit, with ridging taking over later tonight. Low level moisture connection will gradually erode after 15Z this morning while warm air advection off the surface also eliminates the thermal trough over the northeast mountains. The result in the sensible weather will be low level cloud cover that will be stubborn to dissipate, ending snow in the highest ridges of the northeast mountains, and ending drizzle later this morning.
352 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Another fast moving upper trough will swing through the Central Plains today resulting in a deepening surface cyclone over Kansas and increasing southwest winds across our region. By late tonight as the main upper trough continues to move east. a cold front will move through North Texas.
1147 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 Cloudy but quiet weather is anticipated across central and southeast Illinois overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area. Clouds in place through the night should limit the radiational cooling under the ridge. with access to slightly cooler air.
325 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Water vapor imagery and observations early Tuesday morning show a sprawling upper trough across the western CONUS with circulation centers off central California and over Wyoming. Guidance has been trending warmer in recent iterations and we nudged highs up to near 60s in the northwest to lower 70s in the southeast. The wind will turn to the northwest and continued cool and dry advection along with mostly clear skies should result in cooler overnight temperatures.
Light winds overnight will give way to increasing south-southwesterly winds through the morning and into the afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front.
831 PM PST Mon Jan 23 2017 Showers will continue to diminish through Tuesday as low pressure moves east.
110 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 An area of low pressure will lift northeast away from the area tonight.
1133 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 The cloud cover over the Ozarks was slowly eroding from west to east as an upper level ridge was building over the region. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s as the skies remain clear and the upper ridge remains overhead. An approaching area of low pressure will move across the Plains on its way towards the Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. The low will remain to the northwest of the Ozarks with a dry frontal passage for the area. This will bring the potential for wind gusts Tuesday afternoon between 35 and 40 mph at times as temperatures climb into the lower to middle 60s.
412 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will continue moving northeast today.
The low will spread east today. Ahead of the low across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, southerly winds will occur ushering warm temperatures as highs warm into the 60s.
Otherwise, another very pleasant day in store with plenty of sunshine although temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Some light snow showers have entered our southwestern counties as an inverted trough starts to nose into southern ND. Highs will again be a degree or two cooler than yesterday in the 20s to low 30s. Tonight, the main upper low to our south will be headed off to the east. Think the system will bring mostly flurries but will keep the low chance chance for snow spreading from the northwest CWA eastward overnight. Winds will pick up on the backside of the low pressure system to the south, but should stay below 15 kts overnight.
As this low pushes into the Dakotas on Tuesday night widespread snowfall comes to an end.
122 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low pressure off the coast will move northeast overnight.
High pressure ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico northward into the central U. Very dry airmass will exist across the region, with sunny skies expected and highs just a tad above normal in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will transit overhead keeping mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures.
1218 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 Allowed highlights to expire across eastern Utah where activity dying down in subsident region behind the 5H level trough. Latest satellite and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure over the Great Basin. Ahead of the front, the atmosphere mixed well in the lower elevations of southeast UT and portions of western CO with highs in the lower elevations well into the 40s and near 50. The Durango/Pagosa areas remained near or just below freezing, so precipitation late this afternoon will likely fall as mainly snow. Winds aloft are really humming with gusts over 80 mph reported in the high San Juans.
951 PM PST Mon Jan 23 2017 Showers will continue to diminish through Tuesday as low pressure moves east.
/issued 316 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/ Upper level height falls and surface pressure falls will be most concentrated spreading out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Tuesday morning into the afternoon as an upper low deepens heading out of the Rockies. Subsidence will spread into the region near daybreak Tuesday just behind a Pacific cold front passing through late tonight. The upper level zonal flow will not break until late weekend as an upper level ridge builds in the western CONUS leading to more amplified flow.
221 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low level moisture slow to exit with weak high pressure moving in. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow. Upper level trough aloft will continue its exit, with ridging taking over later tonight. Low level moisture connection will gradually erode after 15Z this morning while warm air advection off the surface also eliminates the thermal trough over the northeast mountains. The result in the sensible weather will be low level cloud cover that will be stubborn to dissipate, ending snow in the highest ridges of the northeast mountains, and ending drizzle later this morning. Any lingering precip will taper off quickly Tuesday night as moisture thins and upper ridging moves in.
A low pressure area is centered off the Bay Area late this evening. As the low moves south late tonight and Tuesday morning showers will dissipate. High pressure will build over the area late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
328 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 A narrow high pressure ridge between the deep low off the east coast and low pressure over the mountain west will provide for light and variable winds through morning today. These winds should remain breezy through tonight shifting to SW around daybreak Tuesday as the low heads into the NW corner of Illinois dragging a cold front east across the state. Lows should be mild as the cold front remains to the west keeping temperatures around 40 degrees.
Weak pressure pattern over the area with stronger low pressure to our north and south. Upper level analysis places broad trough over the western United States with compact low spinning down the west coast and strong wave pushing through the central Rockies. upper low slides along and near the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Secondary bout of light snow may spread across the area from north to south later in the day and overnight as a weaker upper low closes off over the southern Provinces and lifts northeast and modestly cooler air pushes in.
Next cold front reaches CLL after this current TAF but in 12z package will need to carry a FROPA around 09z. Ambient temperatures are warming into the lower 70s with an anticipated quick drop off into the 50s this evening under weak (return) flow and clear skies. As high pressure transitions to the east tomorrow. the onshore pressure gradient will tighten between this high and lowering lee Rocky pressure producing a fresh onshore afternoon breeze. Mainly sunny skies (just cirrus) and a slight westerly component to the lower-mid level wind field as western Texas troughing deepens promoting above guidance lower 80 F afternoon temperatures. The mid-level thermal ridge (mid teen 85H temperatures) also strengthens the near 20 degree above normal Tuesday daytime temperature argument and well as provide a decent downstream warm nose.
1133 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 An approaching low pressure system will bring scattered high clouds to North and Central Texas tonight through Tuesday. A southerly wind will prevail through Tuesday evening but will turn to the west around midnight with the passage of a cold front. After sunset Tuesday, wind speeds should fall below 12 knots but will increase slightly with the passage of the cold front. Lee cyclogenesis is occurring across eastern CO as broad upper troughing overspreads the western US.
Given thermal profiles, there could be a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle in the morning before temperatures warm enough in the afternoon.
1100 AM MST Sat Dec 31 2016 Current surface analysis shows main cold front well south and east of the region, with a secondary boundary passing to the south of the forecast area now.
209 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A cold front over Indiana will slide through the Mid Atlantic Sunday morning.
A shallow cold front will work its way across the region today.
Lows will range from the 50s across the interior and northern areas to the lower 60s along the Treasure Coast. Highs should reach near 80 along the coast and the lower 80s for the interior. The flow pattern over the srn tier of the Conus will remain somewhat progressive in nature through midweek as a broad cyclone evolves over the Grt Lakes and Oh Valley to the Gulf of Mex. An airmass change ascd with a passing front around late Wed will bring a shot of cooler air late in the workweek with slightly cooler than normal temps. Weak high pressure influence across the area into the early part of the week, then an approaching cool front and eventual passage on Wed.
1040 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front making slow progress to the southeast across forecast area early this morning. Despite cloud cover, gusty southerly winds ahead of cold front will help temps warm up into the low 40s to mid 50s today.
then north this afternoon at KABI as a weak cold front front moves through. However, will carry slight chance of showers tonight along the I-10 corridor as upper level low(along the CA/AZ border) opens up and moves into Texas by Sunday morning. The lows will be in the mid to upper 30s across the Big Country to the 40s elsewhere by New Years Day morning.
At the surface, a weak cold front extends from extreme se Nebraska, into west- central KS. Weak cold front will push through the entire forecast area today, knocking temps back closer to seasonal normals. Precip chances are still expected to increase Sun night into Mon morning as this trough slowly digs southeast, increasing mid level theta-e advection. Models continue to come in warmer for temps Mon morning which leads to increased confidence that all of the precip will remain in liquid form. Highs on Wed and Thu will likely not top the freezing mark.
Temperatures should rise a few degrees during the afternoon once some sun develops, but still remaining below freezing. It is however looking increasingly likely that we will have a duration of mixed precipitation (rain/freezing rain/snow) for the first half of the event across much of the area.
Patchy fog will return tonight, but it won't be as widespread due to increasing high and mid level clouds ahead of the upper level trough. The jet rounding the base of the trough has some over water trajectory, but the speed max appears to be aimed at northern California and the Great Basin, so jet dynamics won't be a significant contributor.
202 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 A cold front, currently stretched from about STL-SGF, will continue its dive southeastward into the PAH FA tonight.
Statistical guidance (MET) suggests fog in addition to the low clouds overnight.
246 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front is sweeping through Central Illinois this afternoon, with winds coming around to more northwesterly and tempering the diurnal swing for the Midwest. the weather should remain quiet and cooler, with lows dropping into the 20s. Models continue to mix in enough dry air to further erode the clouds as the high pressure ridge axis drifts across the region overnight.
Low level flow will will shift from northwest to westerly as high pressure sinks south. A digging western CONUS trough will generate a lee low along the front range, resulting in southerly low level flow.
The pressure gradient will relax as low pressure continues to pull away from the region and high pressure moves south of the state overnight.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a positively tilted trough stretching across the Great Lakes southwestward into the Central Plains. Further to the west, there is a weak upper level trough across the Desert Southwest with a closed low along the California coast. At the surface, a cold front stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Southern Plains. Model soundings indicate that the atmosphere is saturated for the most part except for the lowest 200-300 mb. Low level southerly to southwesterly winds will continue to warm the low levels and will transition to all rain by this evening. The stationary boundary along the Gulf Coast will begin to push northward tonight as the overall flow becomes southwesterly ahead of an upper level trough moving across the Southern Plains.
447 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A cold front over entering Ohio from the northwest will slide through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday morning.
250 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2016 An area of deformation and mid-level frontogenesis on the north side of a closed low over New Mexico will keep a band of rain and snow showers over extreme SE UT and Montezuma county in SW CO this evening. By midnight this feature should weaken as it moves over the southern extent of the San Juan mountains and the higher elevations north of Durango and Pagosa Springs. Sunday and Sunday night are somewhat "in-between" days, waiting for the next stronger trough to affect the area. Another closed low is projected to travel just south of the U. and Mexico border with a weak trough and deformation zone stretching from the four corners north through central CO.
233 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front over the Midwest this afternoon and pulling up the light rains across the region is in the process of washing out. Pressure gradient bringing this morning's winds will loosen quickly as high pressure moves by to our north.
1119 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 The cold front is presently swinging through the CWA, and as expected northwesterly winds have increased behind the front. Otherwise, satellite showing broken stratus to our north and this will drop southward across our area through the morning before breaking up in the afternoon as the lower level flow turns southwesterly. With the frontal passage it will be a cooler day, though in consideration of trends of late stayed on the upper side of guidance with highs mid 20s through east central SD and southwestern MN, to mid 30s along the mid and lower MO River Valley. The one exception will be over the Buffalo Ridge area where there could be some wind enhancement in a slightly tightening gradient in the southwesterly low level flow.
LAPS surface wet bulb temperatures indicate all areas are above freezing except extreme eastern Cumberland County, so some non-impactful sleet could mix with the rain there for another hour or so.
By mid morning, the cold front was approximately between the IL river valley and I-55. Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over Wisconsin, with a trailing cold front extending into the southwest states. Cooler but still seasonably mild lows in the 20s are expected behind the front for tonight.
/Issued 241 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016/ Cold front was nearing the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. High temperatures will be back down to around normal for late December behind this cold front. Another upper level short wave trough over northwest California now is expected to dive southeast and this system will move south of the panhandles on Sunday night.
Lows tonight fall below freezing in the evening and will be in the low/middle 20s by the midnight hour. Model differences on whether or not low levels can saturate enough to reach the ground, and if so, if they can do so early enough to bring just a low end chance for freezing drizzle out in the western counties. So have just a few hours mid morning west of MHK where light freezing drizzle could occur.
A weak cold front will eventually shift through all of southern Missouri this afternoon.
1122 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front tracking through the area this morning will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler today, as much as 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
305 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 It's been a notably cooler, but still pleasant start to the weekend today. The surface cold front accompanying this northern disturbance pushed through the CWA last night, and currently lies from northern MI into TX. Cooler high pressure has settled into the area, keeping winds light and at times variable this afternoon, with temps in the 30s/lower 40s (compared to the highs yesterday in the 50s for most locations).
Tonight we'll see the second, stronger and cooler system (currently around the northern California coast) round the bottom of the trough and kick through southern Arizona Sunday.
Longwave trough to our east and ridge to our west has NE MT in a NW flow.
TFJ Trof beginning to carve out over the western states with upper low developing in the Great Basin. A reinforcing cold trof is expected to drop into the Pacific Northwest through the weekend bringing another surge of arctic air to the region. Cold front slips south of the border tonight with low level flow turning around to the northeast, then east on Sunday.
Cold front had pushed south across the plains and areas of stratus were developing along the Front Range as expected. Aloft, strong flow will continue through the week, varying from southwesterly on Sunday to westerly through the bulk of the week as an upper low slowly comes ashore over Oregon.
1241 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A pressure ridge over the area will move off the coast this afternoon.
A cold front will continue to result in a wind shift from the north through this afternoon.
Cold front now approaching northwest sections of the state will reach southern sections by late evening.
This will allow moisture to increase markedly today, and combined with increasing upper ridging aloft, warmer temperatures this afternoon. A very pleasant New Years Eve is on tap with mostly clear skies and afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s most areas. Expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s shortly after sunset, with temperatures falling into the upper 50s as we near the midnight hour and enter the first few hours of 2017. This will occur as high pressure slips off to the east and into the western Atlantic.
321 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A cold front will move across the forecast area this evening. High pressure over the Central Plains will track across the lower lakes Sunday and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday night.
239 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 High pressure will move across the area tonight keeping the weather quiet overnight. A weak upper level disturbance will also be moving across the area Sunday but forecast soundings show the lower levels of the atmosphere remaining dry.
A weak cold front may sag south this evening, briefly shifting winds to the NE at HOB and MAF however significant speeds are not expected. Even though some gusts are above 60 mph we will not issue a warning based on the gust being in the highest elevations and with gusts of 50-55 mph around the Pinery. A second and stronger upper trough will quickly follow late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, resulting in mainly chance to likely pops in showers and thunderstorms areawide.
At the surface, a high pressure system sitting over west central and southwestern Florida will continue to advect warm moist air across the state.
In its wake, a cold front will sweep across the region ushering in slightly cooler air and brisk northwest wind. Highs will top out in the mid 20s to near the freezing mark. For tonight, expect mostly clear skies as high pressure passes to the south of the region. Sunny skies in the morning will give way to increasing mid-high clouds through the day, but temperatures will be warmer with afternoon highs into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
We may see some of the low clouds dissipate this afternoon over the West Plains, but a lack of mixing, widespread snow cover, and our low sun angle will likely prevent erosion of low clouds in the Columbia Basin and the valleys north of the Spokane metro. Afternoon temperatures have been lowered to the low 20s for Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Omak, and Colville. Pullman, Lewiston, St Maries, Winchester, and Cheney should enjoy bright sunshine this afternoon with a good shot of climbing into the low 30s. possibly warmer. We may see the deck rise late this afternoon and this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Mid and high level clouds continue to increase across the region ahead of a developing low pressure system. High pressure ridge, currently overhead, will shift eastward through this morning.
High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions to the region today while aftn temps remain below normal.
459 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A weak cold front will return rain and snow chances to the forecast through the evening. Building high pressure should result in dry weather Sunday. Critical thicknesses, model soundings, and morning upper-air data indicate mainly snow should fall N of I-80 and in the higher terrain SE of PIT, with rain changing to a mix of rain and snow S of I-80. Areas N of I-80 and the higher terrain SE of PIT could see around an inch of snow. Dry weather is expected Sunday under building high pressure. A brief period of freezing rain is possible in the usually colder locations N of I 80 but confidence of occurrence remains too low for an HWO inclusion at this time.
A weak cold front has moved just south of I-20 at 3 PM and is expected to weaken and dissipate overnight.
A cold front has already move through our CWA with 1015mb high pressure building south out of the northern plains. Wet bulb profiles support flurries (assuming the lower levels saturate) rather than sprinkles. Highs on Sunday should be a little warmer as low level flow begins to shift to the west and southwest ahead of approaching upper level trough.
The band of snow is currently affecting areas between Wheatland and Bridgeport Nebraska. The rest of the day should be fairly quiet with the lee trof developing which will allow for downslope flow to commence. Although, temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday.