Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
248 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 HYDRO COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. WE WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US AS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WERE SEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS SE GA AND LOW/MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL.
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND PACIFIC MOISTURE BEINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
The center of the high will track southeastward toward the area, reaching southwest Indiana by this evening.
There is an upper level ridge moving across the area currently, with a trough along the west coast, and a larger trough affecting much of the eastern half of the U. Mid and upper level clouds are moving through the ridge and over our area tonight, keeping temperatures warmer than expected across the area tonight.
BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTY TONIGHT. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY.
AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
WEAK SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S INLAND AREAS. REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
138 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA WITH INCREASING WAA AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING. THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE LONG PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S. A SHEARED VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER JET STREAK WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH SOME MINOR REINFORCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL TROUGHING. WITH PERSISTENCE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA. AND SOME SLACKENING OF GRADIENT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH WAS OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER MT AND SASK, AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEN SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES. PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST BY MID AFTN AND CALM TO WEAK WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE DVL BASIN REGION BY MID AFTN. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH WEAK MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015/ TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS SE AREAS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER COAST AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING WINDS AND GOOD INFLOW.
257 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 Surface ridging is providing a seasonally cool and dry day across the region.
SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGE AND N TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COOL TEMPS INTO REGION.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING AS A SWATH OF SHOWERS CROSSED THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY.
330 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH FREEZING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT A LARGE AREA OF FREEZING TEMPS WOULD OCCUR. BUT TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPR LVL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DEPARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA RESULTING IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS LOW-MID LVL HEIGHTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH BREEZY.
High pressure will remain in control over the area today providing for cool temperatures. Tonight, high pressure will shift slowly eastward and winds will be on the increase out of the southeast, especially over the western CWA where lows will be held in the low to mid 40s. WAA will be underway during the day Sunday as an upper level ridge builds in the region from the Plains. This will allow temperatures to rise into the low 60s to near 70.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL CROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AND THEREFORE THINK DEW POINTS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW WILL RISE A TAD INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THIS IS A TRICKY OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS JUST THE SLIGHTEST WIND MAY ALLOW SOME MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR AT AROUND 1000 FT AND SOME ELEVATIONS ARE ABOVE 1000 FT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE NORMALLY COOLER ZONES. THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND. THE HIGHEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES CONT E OVER THE PLAINS AS THE UPR LOW OFF CA MOVES ONSHORE. THIS HIGH WILL CONT DRIFTING SLOWLY E. WINDY AND WARMER. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN WHICH CUTS OFF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
402 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A DEEP TROUGH DOMINATED THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE YIELDS TO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
229 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 A LARGE UPPER TROF WAS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED OVER MUCH OF THE INTER MTN WRN STATES. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 20S DEWPOINTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS AT FREEZING OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
An upper level ridge axis across the Rockies will gradually shift eastward into the Missouri Valley by Sunday with only some high level cirrus cloudiness from time to time. A large upper level trough over the Western U.
WARMEST READINGS ARE FOUND IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT. THE LATTER ESPECIALLY SO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. MANY OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE POINTING TO A PERIOD OF 30-40KT GUSTS IN THESE AREAS.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C-6C AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY WITH A COOLER START IN REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING MAY BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY LOOK TO RECOVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN.
343 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 CIRRUS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MANAGED TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AS THIS RIDGE EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. A MINOR TROUGH TO OUR SW IS SET TO BRING A RETURN OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL RAMP ON SUNDAY AS THE REGION FALLS BETWEEN LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NW AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL HELP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND DEWPOINT VALUES RESIDE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.
111 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW/TROFFINESS CONTINUED ACRS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. BUT WITH THE RIDGE CENTER MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE ENHANCED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MIXING LLVL FLOW IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AS A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERNING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
QUITE A BIT OF FROST THIS MORNING AND SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND EVEN OBSERVED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR LOCATIONS ON THE HIGHLAND RIM AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
Canadian high pressure will continue to drop south into the Ohio Valley tonight, with frost again possible along and east of US 63. Temperatures will start to increase Sunday, especially over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas, as southwest winds at the surface and ridging aloft move into the area.
152 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 AVIATION COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. WE WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
200 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL DOMINATES EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE LONG WAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF. THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORMAL RANGE. AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AS ANOTHER S/W IN THE L/W TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U. WITH EXPECTED LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC.
Water vapor imagery is indc a strong trough moving into the West Coast with an upper low just west of Eureka CA.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN CALIF TO ARIZ REACHING NRN IDAHO SUNRISE SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL COME INLAND ACROSS NRN CALIF SUNDAY. PRECEDED BY BRIEF RIDGING WITH A LETUP IN SHOWERS IN OUR AREA.
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ITS INFLUENCE STRETCHING WELL EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL GRADUALLY MOVE A BROAD AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH DEPARTING THE OHIO VALLEY.
Mostly zonal flow will continue aloft while low level high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS today. In the wake of a dry cold front, expect some breezy winds from the north and mostly clear skies. Temperatures today will peak in the mid-upper 70s across much of the area today with a few spots in the southeast Big Bend peaking in the low 80s.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
130 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST IS PUSHING RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AND A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY. LOW- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE CWA TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE.
POSITIVE TILT RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TODAY HAS PRODUCED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK AND MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT E/NE WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN. WHILE SECONDARY TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO DROP IN LATER AND VEER WINDS A BIT. A SHEARED VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER JET STREAK WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH SOME MINOR REINFORCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL TROUGHING. WITH PERSISTENCE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA. AND SOME SLACKENING OF GRADIENT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
353 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 Upper ridge remains over the Rockies with northwest flow aloft locally. Models, to varying degrees, keep the mid level moisture and upglide in place into early daytime hours Sunday as the upper ridge axis pushes east into then past Kansas into the late afternoon.
BUT OVERALL THE HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON AREA.
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WILL SEE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS LAST NIGHT THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
1034 mb Canadian high pressure near the IA/IL/MO border at mid afternoon will slowly drift east into IL overnight and Sunday morning. MET/MAV guidance similar for lows tonight mostly in the lower 30s with a few sites in upper 20s in eastern IL. Widespread frost/freezing conditions expected later tonight into early Sunday morning over central and southeast IL. High pressure will be east of Illinois by late Sunday afternoon. Highs will reach the low 60s.
AND WE SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WE SAW EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CIRRUS THINS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
The region will remain under northwesterly flow aloft through tonight before the mid-level ridge over the Rockies shifts eastward over the area by Sunday. So while temperatures may linger in the 50s for much of the morning, the clearing skies along with light southeasterly winds should help afternoon high temperatures to rise into the low/mid 60s. With this in mind, have trended warmer with temperatures for tonight with lows generally in the mid 40s.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA. AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CAL SHORE WITH DEEP SWRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX WITH DIURNAL HEATING SUNDAY MORNING.
Upper low has closed off today just offshore the northwest corner of California. The frontal zone and deep moisture plume ahead of the low has been slowly moving southeast, but still quite a few showers and thunderstorms continuing over the Sierra to the south of Lake Tahoe. After a possible lull in activity in the valley during the evening, isolated to scattered showers will redevelop overnight as the closed low moves onshore over northwest California, and then inland across the Sacramento Valley on Sunday.
MOST SITES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO COOL FURTHER.
An upper level ridge axis across the Rockies will gradually shift eastward into the Missouri Valley by Sunday with only some high level cirrus cloudiness from time to time.
WINDS SWING AROUND TOT HE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD.
518 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
406 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 Cool high pressure over northeast MO will slowly back off to the east overnight but a light easterly wind, generally clear skies and a very dry airmass will allow temperatures to drop rapidly this evening.
WV Imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low tracking eastward across eastern Kansas. Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure is shifting east across eastern Kansas with an attendant cold front extending southward into central Oklahoma. An intense upper level low pressure system has been tracking steadily east of of the western High Plains today and is currently situated over the northeast tip of the Texas Panhandle at mid afternoon. The upper low is progged to move into far south central Kansas this evening and then accelerate to the northeast late tonight and Wednesday. A band of moderate to heavy snow associated with the mid level theta-e tongue has been wrapping around the northwest quadrant of the low across northwest into far west central Kansas. With that in mind, will cancel the high wind warning.
SHARP COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL WA AND INTO NW OREGON AS OF 03Z. SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND BRIEFLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /SPEEDS TO 40 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG RIDGELINES/. STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING KBKE.
WARM FRONT FROM ABOUT DYERSBURG TO TALLAHASSEE. PRIMARY AIR MASS CHANGE (PACIFIC AIR MASS) STILL BACK BEHIND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
Short range models indicate the closed off upper level low in eastern Kansas lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest today giving way to a zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Another surge of colder air will move through western Kansas tonight behind yet another cold frontal passage. The lower 30s(F) are still possible in south central Kansas.
348 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 THIS MORNING STRONG CLOSED LOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHICH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUT AREA TODAY. THIS LOW IS PROGGED PHASE WITH BROADER UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA AND OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. WHILE RIDGING HOLD ON A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR.
ADDED IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ALREADY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS GUSTING IN THE LOW TO MID 40 MPH RANGE AND DO EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
With this much moisture advecting into the region and plenty of ascent from the approaching upper trough, widespread rain amounts in the 2 to 3 inch amount have either occurred or are likely to have occurred when all is said and done. Cloud cover will also scatter out as the dry slot moves overhead but as the upper low tracks east, low stratus should fill back in on the back side of the storm system. Have lowered high temperatures based on that thinking and looks like we'll have a hard time getting close to normal as highs top out in the lower 50s.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHLAND AND CONTINUE BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
AS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFE NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
400 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Short term (Today - Tomorrow night): Upper level low which has been the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms the past few day is evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Kansas. Skies will clear tonight however winds will remain elevated enough to keep overnight lows near normal in the low to mid 30s.
A VERY STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MONTANA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA MID MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGHS RISE INTO THE 50S MOST AREA USING THE WARMER GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.
IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING BASE OF 140KT H25 JET AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS BECOME SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS TAKEN THE WRAP-AROUND SNOW BAND WITH IT. THE UPPER LOW IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY. IN FACT WESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO BLOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WE WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE IN THE FLOW SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW GUSTS IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR BOULDER AND JEFFCO. TOMORROW THE COMPETING FORCES OF WESTERLY FLOW AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES AT FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY.