Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
505 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 cancelled the high wind warning for Devils Lake as the mesoscale low propagates northeast.
144 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area tonight through Monday.
The upper level low is now centered over Idaho and will be in western Montana by morning. Still seeing some moisture wrapping around the low back into northeast Oregon and southeast Washington along with some convection over central oregon producing some precipitation. Forecast area will be under a drier westerly flow on Monday with warmer temperatures.
Low pressure continues to push away from the Great Basin.
233 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 Lighter winds return today as high pressure builds over northeast California and western Nevada. More typical afternoon and evening zephyr winds return Tuesday as weak low pressure moves by to the north.
504 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week Dry weather and low humidity will start the week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. Tranquil conditions prevail early this morning across the forecast area as high pressure remains the main player in our local weather today. as high pressure drifts east from the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes region.
High pressure over Illinois and Indiana is expected to drift slowly east over the next few days.
125 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Main forecast challenge is warm frontal boundary moving northeast across the TAF sites through the forecast period.
210 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure lingers into Monday. Warmer and more humid as we head through the work week.
Given the cooler air in place, RH values have not been able to reach Red Flag Warning or Heat Advisory criteria. Southerly winds of 15-25kts will remain overnight, before switching out of the west on Monday as the cold front swings west to east across at least central SD in the morning.
346 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas by midweek and persist through the end of the work week. Mid-level heights rise today as subtropical high pressure strengthens. The overall risk for severe weather looks a bit less than previous days with warmer mid-level temperatures and a bit less available DCAPE.
240 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Local observations at this hour put the cold front just to the west of Steamboat Springs, dropping down to the Book Cliffs, and then just to the west of Green River. The front will be through our CWA by mid-morning allowing high temperatures to be cooler than seen recently. For Tuesday, high pressure centered over southern New Mexico and eastern Texas will keep moisture trapped way down south as zonal flow sets up over our area.
404 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area today.
High pressure rebuilds across the region early this week in the wake of the weekend trough resulting in a warming trend.
644 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week Dry weather and low humidity will start the week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. Tranquil conditions prevail early this morning across the forecast area as high pressure remains the main player in our local weather today. as high pressure drifts east from the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes region.
656 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area today.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge extending from Texas to the northern plains and a cutoff low centered over northwestern Mexico. At the surface, a cold front extended from Houston to Floresville to Quemado. The upper level low will begin to move to the northeast today and ride up the western side of the ridge.
Strong High pressure over the upper midwest will build across Indiana and the Ohio valley through the weekend and into the early part of the next work week. Water vapor imagery shows a highly amplified ridge of HIgh pressure in place over the western plains states. High pressure was in place at the surface across the upper midwest and light northerly winds were in place across Indiana wit dew points in the 40s. Time heights and forecast soundings remain dry today as subsidence associated with e approaching high pressure systems and upper ridge builds across the area.
231 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low near Baja California and the upper level ridge over the Great Basin and Plains to have moved little in the last day. Lows may be a few degrees warmer due to some cloud cover moving overhead as the upper level low approaches from the southwest. Regarding the track of the upper level low, continue to have doubts about how quickly the closed low will merge back into the upper level flow and eventually over the Tri-State Area. Models now have the closed low slightly further south over the Four Corners Area by Saturday morning compared to the model runs from this time yesterday.
The core of the northern stream trough (seen clearly on WV imagery this morning) will drop into the Southeast through today. At the surface, and preceding the trough, a cold front will push through the Tri-State region this afternoon.
/Today/ High pressure has ridged into northern Iowa while a boundary is stalled over central Illinois and Missouri. High pressure will continue to build into the state the remainder of the day.
A cold front will drop SE across SE NC and NE SC through the morning hours, bringing a chance of a shower over inland SE NC around daybreak, to the SC coast into middle morning.
343 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Lake effect rain showers and mostly cloudy skies will slowly give way today as drier and cooler air moves into the region.
Strong persistent troughiness across the Gulf of Alaska, downstream ridging and warm temps through the western and central CONUS along with a cutoff low in the SW states, and troughiness from the eastern lakes into New England. At the surface, strong high pressure center and deep layer dry air is over the western lakes and upper midwest region. Very little change in the overall pattern for the next several days while upstream ridging/warm air press into the Great Lakes.
333 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature for the weekend. Subsidence, dry advection, and a slightly veering boundary layer wind in the wake of a reinforcing cold front should result in diminished stratocu/improved insolation by afternoon. Strengthening high pressure is forecast to maintain dry weather for the first half of the new week, albeit with moderating temperature as heights rise/warm advection ensues in advance of Western CONUS troughing. As mid week approaches, upper flow through the eastward digging trough is projected to split as per the NAEFS and latest GFS and ECMWF, hence robbing the Upper Ohio Region of a deep moisture increase. High pressure will keep dry anticyclonic flow across the region through the TAF period, with mainly mid deck crossing ports with a mid level disturbance overnight into Friday.
1201 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 For the 04/06Z TAFs, lingering convection earlier this evening has completely diminished as a cold front continues to advance through the region. Kept the rain chances due to the slow movement of a cold front across the area overnight and into Friday as a weak short wave of low pressure swings to the Southeast overhead. Even through the showers and thunderstorms had ended, the boundary will remain a focus along with the added lift from the passing upper trough. Cooler air behind the front to make its way across the region late tonight as high pressure builds across the region. Cold front to linger across the Northers Gulf Coast into Friday allowing clouds and rain chances to affect the area and parts of Deep East Texas.
Westerly surface winds in the wake of this trough favor another mild day and trended forecast highs on the warmer edge of the forecast envelope given observed trends the past couple days. VFR through the 06Z forecast period with a persistent ridge in the upper atmosphere maintaining a clear sky with only a few upper level clouds about.
156 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Cool high pressure will build into NY and PA overnight and Friday. Mid-level trough will rotate through the forecast area tonight. Rdg holds into early Wed when an upr low and sfc fnt pushes thru the area bringing cooler air and the chance for shwrs.
640 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area today and tonight, settling over the region much of the upcoming week. A cold front will drop SE across SE NC and NE SC through the morning hours, bringing a chance of a shower over inland SE NC around daybreak, to the SC coast into middle morning.
154 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Low pressure will exit across the maritimes today. A cold front will cross the region Saturday.
316 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build to our west today and into this weekend.
Upper level high pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature across central California this morning. As of 3 am, the lowest visibilities were reported generally around and south of highway 198. Otherwise, continued warming is forecast to take place across the region as upper level high pressure builds over southern and central California. Temperatures this afternoon will be between 3 and 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday afternoon and as much as 6 to 8 degrees above normal for the beginning of November.
128 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Northwest flow aloft downstream of building ridge keeps moist and cool airmass flowing across Lk Superior into this evening. A few showers or light drizzle will continue this aftn, but as high pressure ridge moves in this evening and overnight, clouds should begin to clear out. Lower pwats and clearing may even result in temps cooler than that. Into Fri, if low clouds and fog develop overnight, the low sun angle and limiting mixing along with drying aloft and sct-bkn cirrus may lead to slow clearing of the low clouds. The sw winds at the sfc should allow temps to end up in the 50s, though whether it stays in the low 50s or reaches the upper 50s to near 60 degrees will completely depend on extent of low clouds into the aftn.
/issued 831 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ High pressure will continue to weaken across the area tonight into early Friday as a cold front approaches the area. Stronger high pressure will then build into the area behind the front for the weekend. High pressure will continue to weaken across the waters overnight and early Friday ahead of a cold front. The front will move through Friday night, with strong high pressure building in behind it for the weekend.
1147 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A closed upper low center currently over the southwest tip of Arizona is forecast to slowly drift northeast through 00z Saturday reaching east central Arizona/west central New Mexico. Low temperatures tonight in the low to upper 30s.
An upper level trough will continue to dig southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region tonight, merging with an upper level jet streak to its south stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley through Georgia and South Carolina. At the surface, a cold front will gradually push southeastward under the jet streak and the base of the upper trough, reaching southern AL and GA by the early morning hours. Lows will be in the lower 60s inland, with mid-upper 60s expected near the coast. An upper-level, long wave trough will reach its peak intensity along the U. A surface cold front will translate southward through our forecast area Friday afternoon and evening, so the abnormally-warm temperatures (with highs in the mid to upper 80s) will continue one more day.
3 AM CDT surface map showed northerly winds across the Midsouth, behind last evening's cold frontal passage. Drier and cooler midcontinental air was trailing the cold front by a few hundred miles, but should spread through the Midsouth this morning. The 00Z medium range forecast models initialized well, showing significant longwave upper level ridging over the Great Plains, and a cut-off low over the desert southwest.
215 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High confidence in the short term with dry and cooler weather. High pressure will build into the region and dominate the weather pattern through the short term. Otherwise the main story for the short term is much cooler but still above normal temperatures.
Dry weather conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Friday as high pressure remains over California.
Conditions will generally be dry this evening, before a stronger upper level trough and associated surface front make their way down the peninsula overnight. Seasonable high temps in the low 80s with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s over the interior and west coast and upper 60s/around 70 along the east coast metro.
Se Mi will however remain in close proximity to the low level thermal trough across the ern Great Lakes. A result will be a strengthening of the low level w-nw low level wind field across Lower Mi.
Based on what has happened today, and a forecast for even warmer temperatures in the boundary layer over the next couple days, I have decided to bump up temps a little from what the blend/MOS guidance is showing. The only caveat is that mixing in the low levels will be somewhat weak to non existent through Saturday per model bufr soundings.
139 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperature for the weekend. As mid week approaches, an upper trough digging rapidly across the Plains is projected to shunt the weakening ridge eastward. An increase in precip chances will follow with the encroachment of that systems cold front. High pressure will keep dry anticyclonic flow across the region through the TAF period, with mainly mid deck crossing ports with a mid level disturbance overnight into Friday.
Upper ridge that is in place over the region will remain over the southeastern portion of the state today before it gradually breaks as upper trough over the Great Lakes digs southeast into Friday. This will increase moisture content in the lower levels and bring a cold front across the region Friday and Saturday. The guidance continues to indicate cold front making its way into northern Florida by Friday and closer to South Florida into Saturday.
358 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A cold front has moved south of the region.
Otherwise, cooler with rather light northeast winds and cont dry. Main focus for this forecast continues to be with regards to western cut-off low. Models continue to disagree with how to handle this low and its impacts for the Southern Plains.
253 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 The weather remains quiet and unseasonably warm during the short term periods under the influence of an upper level ridge of high pressure.
Northerly flow now well-established over the Ohio Valley, with the cold front solidly south of the region and high pressure building in from Wisconsin. Max temps each day will be near climo, which keeps us just on the lower end of guidance due to cold advection today, and the low-level thermal trof on Saturday.
255 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Pacific moisture associated with a closed low over southern Arizona will remain over the region through the day. The closed low is progged to slowly weaken and lift towards the four corners region tonight through Saturday. Afternoon highs Saturday will only reach the lower and middle 70s.
1231 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A closed upper low center currently over the southwest tip of Arizona is forecast to slowly drift northeast through 00z Saturday reaching east central Arizona/west central New Mexico. Low temperatures tonight in the low to upper 30s.
417 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 (Today and Tonight) Cold front has pushed well south of the area early this morning, and most of the ongoing precipitation has remained south of the area across the Rio Grande Valley. Upper level low across Arizona will lift northward today and begin to weaken and fill.
336 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Elongated area of high pressure will result in continued tranquil conditions across the area. As center of the high refocuses in the western Great Lakes region weak return flow will develop across the region. Actual highs continue to be warmer than guidance, and have raised forecast highs in most locations. Have blended in some MOS values to get cooler radiational lows.
1244 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure and calm winds over much of the Northland has allowed temperatures to quickly drop this evening. The combination of clearing skies, surface ridging and calm winds will promote radiational cooling and fog development. A broad upper level ridge will build over the central US Friday, slowly pushing east into the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Have increased highs for Friday based on readings in the Dakotas today reaching well into the 60s, and running warmer than model guidance.
/Issued 322 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ Cut off upper level low over northwest Mexico is expected to slowly work its way northeast over Arizona through Friday night and then it will open up as it moves northeast across Colorado over the weekend. Another cut off upper low may develop over north Texas and then it is expected to slide southwest through the rest of the forecast.
Do think the cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees warmer than previously forecast. Also, had to adjust dewpoints and winds, especially across the higher terrain to reflect current obs and trends. Deese With the front well to the south and high pressure continuing to build in from the north, dry and cooler air will settle into our area. High temperatures will be around normal(low 70s) while the lows will radiate out enough to see below normal temperatures (low to mid 40s) overnight. Temperatures will begin to moderate (mid 70s) by the end of the period as the high shifts off the east coast ahead of the next front. Cold front will move south across KATL before sunrise.
244 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 An upper level low over srn AZ will gradually move nne today thru tonight and be approaching the four corners area by 12z Sat. For tonight not sure about shower threat in the higher terrain south of I-70. A weak upper level low will be near the Four Corners area 12z Saturday morning. The low is progged to drift north-northwest and weaken through the weekend. This low will help increase moisture across the area, mainly at the mid and upper levels. The increase in cloud cover should keep temperatures a little cooler this weekend.
A cold front located south of the Plateau will continue to advance southward into Arkansas this evening. Cooler temperatures (but still a bit warmer than climatological normal values in the lower to middle 60s) will be witnessed Friday and Saturday as high pressure drifts overhead.
A cold front will continue to slowly push south across AR and will develop isolated light showers. Otherwise a cold front is situated across northern Arkansas this afternoon. This front will gradually move south over the next 24 hours, ushering in noticeably cooler and drier air to the state.
Upper level ridge axis slides eastward from the Plains today.
/issued 914 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ A cold front is moving through the region bringing an end to the much above normal temperatures the Mid-South has been experiencing for more than a week (above 80F at KMEM since 10/24). Cooler air will work in later tonight with lows in the 50s by morning. A slow moving cold front strewn from New Jersey, down through the Ohio Valley, to just north of the Arkansas and Oklahoma border will continue to push southward through the lower Mississippi Valley this evening.
13z followed by a few high clouds ahead of cold front approaching from the north. The cooler air is well behind the front and not expected to start across the forecast area until Friday afternoon, although the drier air will begin to work in a little earlier in the day. Friday, with the cooler air arriving later in the day, another day of highs in the low to mid 80s expected.
130 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Cooler and drier air will move in tonight, as high pressure gradually builds into the area from the upper midwest. Cooler air will move into the area overnight with lows in the low to upper 40s. High pressure will build in on Friday and will bring sunny and dry conditions through the period. High will be seasonal ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the lower 60s in nrn KY. High on Saturday will rebound a few degrees, reaching the lower 60s. Saturday night's lows will also be a few degrees warmer than Friday night with lower in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
449 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure and notably cooler air will gradually build across our region today. While this large area of high pressure will generally supply us with fair weather for the weekend, a shower cannot be ruled out east of Lake Ontario. High pressure will build from the central Great Lakes towards the lower Great Lakes today, bringing a return to dry weather. A much cooler airmass will build into the region today with highs in the mid to upper 40s in most areas, except a few degrees cooler across higher terrain. Patchy cloud cover and some wind should limit radiational cooling tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 40s across the lake plains to mid 30s across the interior.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure centered over Tamaulipas State in neighboring Mexico will gradually shift southwest, but will generally leave weak ridging over the Lone Star State by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will approach the BRO CWFA from the north and move through. With no significant cold air in the wake of the cold front, the ongoing trend of above normal temperatures for the daytime and overnight hours will persist.
with cold front now well to the south across the northern Gulf States. Temp/dewpoint spreads across the KILX CWA currently range from 0-4 degrees, with the lowest spreads concentrated along/south of I-70. High temperatures will mostly be in the lower 60s, with a few middle 60s across the far W/SW. Skies will remain clear tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in the Wabash River Valley to the lower to middle 40s west of I-55.
519 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 The morning sfc analysis indicates a weak cold front extending from the middle TX coast. but sfc ridging noted upstream of the front from the mid-MS Valley SW into the Srn Plains will continue to expand S today. This cloud cover and resultant weak cold advection behind the front will result in cooler conditions this afternoon. Broad upper ridging noted this morning from the U. with the closed low noted over Srn AZ expected to drift NNE into Wrn NM during the next 24 hours. As this low ejects slowly NE.
The large scale pattern will continue to be dominated by troughing over the eastern Pacific, and downstream ridging over North America. A downstream trough may amplify over eastern North America late in the period, though there is still considerable uncertainty about that. Little precipitation is expected given the position of the forecast area near the longwave ridge position.
528 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature for the weekend. Subsidence, dry advection, and a slightly veering boundary layer wind in the wake of a reinforcing cold front will diminish any residual stratocu and further improve insolation by afternoon. Strengthening high pressure is forecast to maintain dry weather for the first half of the new week, albeit with moderating temperature as heights rise/warm advection ensues in advance of Western CONUS troughing. As mid week approaches, upper flow through the eastward digging trough is projected to split as per the NAEFS and latest GFS and ECMWF, hence robbing the Upper Ohio Region of a deep moisture increase. High pressure will keep dry anticyclonic flow across the region through the TAF period, with mainly mid deck crossing ports with a mid level disturbance overnight into Friday.
Heights will begin to fall today ahead of the upper level low spinning around southern Arizona.