Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): The main story in the short term will be the approach of a cold front bringing cooler air into Deep South Texas. Breezy conditions, mainly across the Lower Valley will begin to decrease this evening as an area of low surface pressure moves southeastward and a cold front begins to approach from the north. Moist low levels will lead to an increased chance of PoPs, mainly in the Lower Valley and along the coast Friday morning into the afternoon with the approach and passing of the aforementioned front. High temperatures for Friday will be more in line with seasonal norms thanks to cooler air filtering into the region with highs in the low 70s across the Rio Grande Valley and mid to upper 60s north.
Gusty north winds that developed behind the cold front this afternoon, will diminish to 10 mph or less after sunset.
213 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 A cold front is currently working its way through the region this afternoon with gusty winds and cooler temperatures behind it. This front will continue to move west until it hangs up along the higher terrain overnight.
1251 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 [Through 18Z Friday] VFR expected through mid morning Friday, but moisture will rapidly increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with lower clouds developing by 14Z-18Z Friday with a chance of MVFR ceilings coming in from the west and southwest. High pressure will move off to the east today resulting in a shift of the prevailing flow to become more out of the southwest. Early morning freezing conditions for today are expected to end shortly after sunrise and a potential for light showers moving in ahead of an advancing cold front from out of the west, affecting areas in inland southeast Georgia and parts of Florida west of the I-75 corridor in the early AM hours on Friday.
However, things will be changing rapidly as a cold front approaches us from the northwest tonight.
A west-northwest downslope flow will persist in the lower levels as well, reinforcing a much drier air mass throughout the high plains of western Kansas, and capping any precip chances during the period. A lee side trough developing in eastern Colorado early Friday will return low level southerlies to southwest Kansas by early afternoon, drawing in slightly warmer air back into the area. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than Thursday, ranging from the upper 40s in our northern zones to the low to mid 50s near the KS/OK border. Overnight Friday will be quiet but cold, as temperatures fall in to the low to mid 20s.
Today and Tonight: Increased southerly flow and moisture transport across the region today, will result in warmer conditions and increased cloud cover across the forecast area. Winds will be gusty from the south and southwest today, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. By day break early Friday, lows will range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s, with winds still breezy, but not as gusty, from the north.
The spring preview of the last couple days will come to an end today as cooler air invades the state and snow showers over northeast areas gradually diminish.
A cold front was progressing east and approaching the I-35 corridor with wind gusts to 25 mph behind it. Mixed precipitation has been falling, but mostly freezing rain near and north of I-90. The center of the low should be near GRB by later this afternoon and more importantly, slow the progression of the frontogenetic band in Wisconsin. Additional duration of snow in northern Wisconsin, associated with the low deformation region, should increase snow totals there.
However, this will change this evening as a narrow moist axis shifts east ahead of the cold front now in southeast MO into southwest AR. Southerly flow will continue to be gusty at times through this evening ahead of the rainfall, with gusts of 20-25kt, mainly in the higher elevations. Cold advection will drop temperatures into the lower 30s behind the rainfall.
Gusty northwest to north winds occurring over much of the area this morning with the higher winds down the Colorado River as expected. Surface cold front has pushed through the region, resulting in breezy northerly winds overnight across portions of the region. Besides winds today, temperatures will be about 7-10 degrees cooler than yesterday's, running close to seasonal normals, with mostly clear skies.
The highest snow totals will be north of Interstate 94. Main focus will be coming cold spell as mean trough establishes over Ontario and upper low pinwheels over and over for days on end.
146 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Upper flow becomes more northwesterly this evening in response to a storm system aloft digging over the Great Lakes region and high pressure building off the PACNW. With the cooler air in place lows tonight will fall back down near freezing area wide.
1137 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Key Points: -Strong cold front is expected to work through the region today.
/issued 519 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ Strong winds out of the north will continue to increase over the next several hours at all TAF sites as a cold front moves through the region. This will begin with a cold front racing through the area after 12Z this morning. Wind speeds will decrease through the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes and surface ridging moves in. This front will obviously bring much cooler temperatures to the entire region today with temperatures closer to seasonal averages for early February. A possibility of sprinkles is more likely given how dry the lower atmosphere will be tonight.
A cold front continues to approach late this morning, and showers breaking out ahead already occuring across our northwest. VFR conditions this morning and early afternoon as middle and high clouds thicken up across middle TN in advance of a cold front. Winds will begin to gusts this afternoon after 15Z from the south up to 35 kts with some locally higher gusts across the higher elevations.
230 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 A progressive trough moving eastward over the northern tier states will become somewhat blocked and begin to drag a cold front towards the northern Gulf states through Friday. This will push the Atlantic ridge axis a little farther south, parking over south Florida and the Keys by Friday night.
Upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific has placed the region under northwest flow aloft, which has started to produce light upslope snow showers in the WA Cascades this morning.
Based on expected thermodynamic profiles, little chance for winter precip even with a little cooler temps and thicker clouds than expected so far today. Temps will be cool but low level temps should remain just enough above freezing to preclude any mixed precip. Will need to watch closely in case air mass behind front ends up cooler than expected.
Cold front has moved through all TAF sites at this time with winds gusting 30-40 knots with the passage. /Issued 1031 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ Cold front currently from near KMLC into extreme northwest AR, and at times the passage has been accompanied by strong gusts. Strong winds continue this morning ahead of the next cold front which will pass through all terminals by early afternoon. /Issued 234 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ A cold front that currently stretches from northeast Kansas to northwest Oklahoma will plow through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning.
Currently, Arctic high pressure is situated from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into northeast Montana, with low pressure well off to the east. The gradient between the exiting but strong low pressure to our east and building Arctic high pressure west will maintain a blustery northwest wind tonight, and will continue Friday. This should be enough to produce a period of light snow or flurries over western ND, and maybe as far east as the Highway 83 corridor. Friday, Arctic high pressure really begins to bear down on the area.
Temperatures reached freezing thresholds at many of our climate sites.
The ridge is not building as robustly or as near to the PNW coast as models had first indicated. This low is also causing some mid-level moisture to hang on in the N.
1128 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Cold front currently moving through the area. With that said today looks to be another warm and pleasant day as the high temps will range in the 70s across the area and 80s for the Rio Grande. An Upper level trough over the Rockies will move into the Midwest today ushering in a cold front. Therefore, the Permian Basin will see the entry of a cold front this afternoon bringing gusty winds and advecting cooler air into the area, halting high temps for the northern Permian Basin to the 60s. The associated cooler air and radiational cooling will promote at or near freezing temps for the northern portions of SE NM and northern Permian Basin tonight.
Temperatures expected to be around freezing this evening and the evening commute will see some roads with a coating of slushy snow.
Precipitation wise, moisture doesn't appear to be favorable for much other than transient drizzle/freezing drizzle/flurries. The region will remain under northwest flow while several embedded waves make there way through the main trough.
1215 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 [Through 18Z Friday] A cold front will bring lowered ceilings and increasing chances for showers from late tonight through the end of the TAF period. However, things will be changing rapidly as a cold front approaches us from the northwest tonight.
Clouds to the west of the upper low will continue to move southeast and eventually SE ND into WC MN will get increased cloud cover. Cold advection at the low levels is pretty weak into Friday and with clouds and mixing due to winds not expecting a large temp drop tonight or into Friday. Briefly into advisory range, but coord with BIS will maintain the wind chill watch and focus on the lower wind chills progged this weekend.
218 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 The first round of cold air was making its way into the region this afternoon behind a fast moving cold front.
347 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 High pressure will prevail tonight.
Various guidance indicates showers ahead of the approaching cold front beginning to move into KAEX around 00z (srn sites likely impacted mid- evening to around midnight). /issued 436 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ Another cold front is moving through the midwest this morning with temperatures dropping into the 30s in Missouri and into the single digits in northern Dakota. The upper lvl trof and associated winds will push the system into northern Texas around the noon hour and into the lakes region of southeast Texas around sunset this evening. Friday highs are expected only into the low to mid 50s with cloudy skies and rains mostly light continuing.
1154 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 (Today and tonight) Cold front will move through West Central Texas today, moving into Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 8 AM. The Big Country will see highs in the lower 60s in the morning, with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s in the afternoon.
A cold front continues to approach late this morning, and showers breaking out ahead already occuring across our northwest.
The freeze warning verified well and being a radiational cooling night there were even a few locations well into South Central Florida, locations below the Lake Wales Ridge, that saw drainage and below freezing temperatures. A new trough digging into the upper midwest will allow heights to drop over the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow into the weekend. We will be on the divergent side of that trough so expect rainfall which will be focused on a very slow moving front sliding down the state and then back up the state as surface pressures drop in the Gulf in response to the digging longwave trough.
236 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Light showers ahead of an approaching cold front currently occurring across the west, and this trend will continue late today and into tonight. This cold front is a fast mover and will buzz through here this evening, bringing numerous showers area- wide.
213 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Cold front has pushed south of the area this afternoon with the gusty northwest winds slowly decreasing.
1217 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain and snow returns tonight and part of Friday with a crossing cold front. GOES East satellite imagery shows upper-level clouds beginning to approach the Upper Ohio Valley in advance of a trough digging across the Upper Midwest. The trough and its associated cold front should approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight/early Friday. For the ridges, a mix also seems likely, but with a more pronounced freezing rain threat given cold surface temperatures. Any freezing rain threat should end towards daybreak as cold advection returns precipitation type to snow. Any remaining precipitation should change to isolated to scattered snow showers on Friday in broad upper troughing and cold advection behind the front.
Temperatures will continue to rise somewhat despite the heavy cloud cover as the winds turn south in a meager attempt to moisten ahead of the weak cold front expected overnight.
Southerly flow has begun just to the west along the Cumberland Plateau as pressure gradient tightens ahead of low pressure area and cold front moving east across Missouri. Between 21Z and 00Z Friday low level jet really ramps up so wind advisory/warnings still look good for late afternoon through about 03 to 06Z ahead of cold front. Cold front will shift east during the day today, arriving in east TN this evening.
We look headed for a couple degrees warmer than the previous forecast for this afternoon. Elsewhere in the mtns winds will increase overnight as well with areas of blowing snow over the higher mtn passes with periods of light snow.
A Pacific cold front is near the I-35 corridor, with warm and dry conditions behind it. Cooler conditions and breezy northerly winds are forecast behind the front this evening. Much cooler tomorrow, especially across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds are slower to clear in the afternoon and temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid 50s to low 60s.
117 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain and snow returns tonight and part of Friday with a crossing cold front. GOES East satellite imagery shows upper-level clouds beginning to approach the Upper Ohio Valley in advance of a trough digging across the Upper Midwest. The trough and its associated cold front should approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight/early Friday. For the ridges, a mix also seems likely, but with a more pronounced freezing rain threat given cold surface temperatures. Any freezing rain threat should end towards daybreak as cold advection returns precipitation type to snow. Any remaining precipitation should change to isolated to scattered snow showers on Friday in broad upper troughing and cold advection behind the front.
VFR to MVFR with approach of cold front this evening, vcsh/shra along and ahead of the front, best chances after 00z. Today and Tonight: Increased southerly flow and moisture transport across the region today, will result in warmer conditions and increased cloud cover across the forecast area. Winds will be gusty from the south and southwest today, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. By day break early Friday, lows will range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s, with winds still breezy, but not as gusty, from the north.
1031 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Cold front currently from near KMLC into extreme northwest AR, and at times the passage has been accompanied by strong gusts. Strong winds continue this morning ahead of the next cold front which will pass through all terminals by early afternoon. /Issued 234 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ A cold front that currently stretches from northeast Kansas to northwest Oklahoma will plow through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning.
Despite surface temperatures being in the lower 30s later this afternoon, substantial dry air in the boundary layer should result in evaporative cooling, which will pull the thermal profile below freezing. We're likely looking at a quick burst of 2-3 inches of snow within the first 3-4 hours ahead of the cold front. There will also be a quick uptick in wind, perhaps into the 30-35 mph range, then decrease a little before ramping up during the late evening behind the cold front.
707 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 A cold front will be approaching the region tonight, then will move through the area on Friday. This is all ahead of an approaching cold front. Some lingering showers possible along the coastal plain Some mid and high level clouds will remain behind the front even as high pressure moves in.
514 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 A Canadian cold front continues to push south late this afternoon, already through AUS and moving through SAT/SSF/DRT in the next hour or two. A Pacific cold front is near the I-35 corridor, with warm and dry conditions behind it. Cooler conditions and breezy northerly winds are forecast behind the front this evening. Much cooler tomorrow, especially across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds are slower to clear in the afternoon and temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Also, as the low level lapse rates steepen and the flow becomes more northwesterly, we may also get a gravity wave to develop over Douglas county this evening, which could produce additional snowfall there.
710 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain and snow returns tonight and part of Friday with a crossing cold front. The trough and its associated cold front should approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight/early Friday. For the ridges, a mix also seems likely, but with a more pronounced freezing rain threat given cold surface temperatures. Any freezing rain threat should end towards daybreak as cold advection returns precipitation type to snow. Any remaining precipitation should change to isolated to scattered snow showers on Friday in broad upper troughing and cold advection behind the front.
728 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Will have to stick some flurries/snow showers into the forecast this evening with a quickly moving trough. Well-defined wind shift at the surface with a bit of a breeze directly behind the trough.
325 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Gusty southerly winds will continue into the evening hours ahead of the approaching cold front from the northwest. Much cooler air moving in behind the front will settle into the region. The cooler and drier air should scour out much of the llvl clouds, and temperatures will be able to drop into the 30s in most locations. Skies will be partly cloudy tomorrow, with high temperatures only about 15 degrees cooler tomorrow. /HJS/ A cold front settles south of the area Friday night with a chance for light showers across the southernmost areas.
609 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Most concerns are associated with a cold front moving steadily southeast across the forecast area tonight. /EC/ Gusty southerly winds will continue into the evening hours ahead of the approaching cold front from the northwest. Much cooler air moving in behind the front will settle into the region. The cooler and drier air should scour out much of the llvl clouds, and temperatures will be able to drop into the 30s in most locations. Skies will be partly cloudy tomorrow, with high temperatures only about 15 degrees cooler tomorrow. /HJS/ A cold front settles south of the area Friday night with a chance for light showers across the southernmost areas.
With clear skies and light winds, tonight's low temperatures will fall to near the freezing mark for portions of the valley, especially into rural areas. A ridge of high pressure will begin to strengthen in the east Pacific on Friday.
A very cold upper level trough over the Upper Midwest is expected to shift slightly westward towards the middle of the upcoming week, which will allow a cooler air mass to potentially spread into the area.
As of 21Z the midlevel trough responsible for the cold frontal passage this morning has shifted east of the MO Valley, leaving behind sunny skies. Temperatures are notable cooler than yesterday with readings currently in the 30s area-wide. Transitioning into Friday, a nice rebound in the temperature department is expected with surface ridging progressing eastward allowing westerly low level flow to return to the area.
The upper level trough will continue moving into the eastern CONUS today, shifting from a neutral tilt to a negatively-tilted trough axis with time. The Tri-state area is forecasted to remain on the back side of the trough, keeping the area under NW flow aloft throughout the period. Friday night, there is a slight chance of light snow mainly along and north of Hwy-36 as a weak upper level trough sweeps over the Tri- State area.
303 PM MST Thu Feb 4 2021 Northwest flow in place across the area today in the wake of last night's short wave trough. After a brief break this morning, Leadville web cam shows snow showers redeveloping over the central mountains this afternoon, along with some areas of blowing snow over the higher peaks along the Continental Divide. This low is then anticipated to meander back and forth for a good portion of the upcoming week. The meandering nature of this low brings large uncertainty in the temperatures each day, mainly east of the mountains. However, only light accumulations are expected, with the highest amounts being in the 2 to 3 inch range, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass.
There are some differences related to the central location of the Upper Low, but the average mean suggests somewhere southwest of Hudson Bay. The persistence of the Upper Low holding nearly stationary, or drifting slowly to the south/southeast, means that the cold air will remain across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the 3-7 day forecast. Once this Upper Low fills and moves off to the east/northeast, moderating temperatures will develop over the Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest.
/issued 528 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ Latest surface analysis places an 994mb low pressure system over north central Illinois, with a cold front extending southwest through Saint Louis and back through Little Rock, Arkansas. Expect up to a half of inch of QPF, with the highest totals mainly over northeast Mississippi.
With an upper-level low pressure area entrenched over the Great Lakes, the Central Plains remain in northwest flow from tonight through the middle of the month.
The cold front in northwest IN was advancing quickly east northeast. Temperatures expected to be around freezing this evening and the evening commute will see some roads with a coating of slushy snow.
416 PM MST Thu Feb 4 2021 Satellite imagery showing few to scattered mid level clouds across the higher elevations (favoring the northern mountains and areas just upstream) this hour.
412 PM MST Thu Feb 4 2021 Upper level analysis has deep closed low over northern Minnesota with broad northwest upper flow across much of the western CONUS. At the surface, weak lee trof is in place across western SD, between high pressure to the west and to the east. Breezy northwesterly winds are making the mid 20s to mid 30s temperatures feel quite a bit cooler.
/issued 146 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ Upper flow becomes more northwesterly this evening in response to a storm system aloft digging over the Great Lakes region and high pressure building off the PACNW. With the cooler air in place lows tonight will fall back down near freezing area wide.
A cold front currently stretches from the San Antonio area into Shreveport then northward into the Great Lakes.
/Issued 213 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ Cold front has pushed south of the area this afternoon with the gusty northwest winds slowly decreasing.
352 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 Latest surface analysis places an 994mb low pressure system over north central Illinois, with a cold front extending southwest through Saint Louis and back through Little Rock, Arkansas. Expect up to a half of inch of QPF, with the highest totals mainly over northeast Mississippi.