Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015 COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE HAS PASSED WACO AND IS NEARING COLLEGE STATION. DRY TODAY WITH WEST AND NW WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG WHERE GULF MOISTURE HAS CREPT INLAND AND AS BL SHRINKS RAPIDLY MAY GET A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT FOG BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE. COOLER TOMORROW WITH 1035MB HIGH OVER OK/MO AND SETX FIRMLY IN COOL NE FLOW. FRONT PUSHES DOWN INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER LOW NEARING BAJA WOBBLES SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MEXICO.
1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015 STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS.
230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015 SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THERMAL TROUGH STARTS EDGING EASTWARD THEREAFTER. NAM SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS KEEPING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AROUND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 45 25 50 / 20 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 40 20 47 / 40 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 40 21 47 / 30 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 27 35 15 45 / 50 10 0 10.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z IN THE WEST AND 3Z IN THE EAST.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER COLORADO SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THEN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U. ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.
1022 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 COOLER AIR AND BRISK NORTH WINDS HAVE ARRIVED IN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/ THE COOL DOWN BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE COOLER TEMPS CONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TOUGH TO PICK OUT WHERE EXACTLY THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AS THERE ISN'T MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO KEY ON. ON FRI AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA/BAJA.
MAIN FEATURE OF SHORT TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
/ISSUED 1022 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/ COOLER AIR AND BRISK NORTH WINDS HAVE ARRIVED IN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/ THE COOL DOWN BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE COOLER TEMPS CONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE IS PROGGED INTO THE PLAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THEN CLOUDINESS IS ON THE INCREASE FORM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U. ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA AS FAR NORTH AS FARSON ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
253 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING DOWN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE HOUR. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE SHALLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
345 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
159 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY. A CROSSING UPR TROF WL KEEP SNW SHWR CHCS IN THE RGN THRU FRI. GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALLOW FOR ADVY LVL SNW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES. DRY WEA SHOULD CONT SAT UNDER THE HIGH.
OTHERWISE, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF AREAS AFFECTED BY THE LOW STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED FOG.
1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING. WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE OK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH. WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE 850MB TROUGH. UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO REACH NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY. SOME SNW COULD MIX IN N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES ESP BY LT AFTN. A CROSSING UPR TROF WL KEEP SNW SHWR CHCS IN THE RGN THRU FRI. GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALLOW FOR ADVY LVL SNW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES. DRY WEA SHOULD CONT SAT UNDER THE HIGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. LOW VFR CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA NEAR 30/02Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AS THE FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
126 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW RIDGE TOPS IN SW VA MAY SEE TWO INCHES BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS LEFT OUT OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW.
359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E INTO MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN CA.
1102 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MAIN NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A WEST COAST RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
1109 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
/ISSUED 546 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY.
256 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
252 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IT WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MID TN. THANKS TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE 2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT.
THIS LASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO RETURN NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015 A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA.
1110 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Areas of freezing fog persist this morning, mainly along the hi-line and especially the Havre area.
238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
The latest guidance from the RAP, HRRR and NAM all indicate that moisture in the lowest 100 mb should stay high enough overnight for low clouds to persist until Friday morning. As the low pressure center moves through the eastern Great Lakes late this evening, the pressure gradient should loosen up, resulting in gradually diminishing winds in central Illinois early tonight, and in eastern Illinois by daybreak. Only differences in the those two models is the timing and track of the low press area as it moves northeast across the southern Miss valley. With the upper level part of the system being just an open trough/wave, a heavy deformation area of snow will likely not setup on the back side of the low pressure area.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OREGON INTO NV LATER TODAY AND SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH /TO SOCAL/ FRIDAY. WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST.
TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES.
1012 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015 Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place.
/ISSUED 524 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south across West Central Texas this morning, exiting the southern terminals by 17Z. /ISSUED 352 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move south across West Central Texas today. Expect northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph and cooler temperatures behind the front. Highs will range from the lower 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to around 70 along the I-10 corridor.
246 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015 PRONOUNCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SLOWLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN US. LOCALLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR FROM 900MB AND UP WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DRIVEN BY NORTHEAST FLORIDA CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO BOTH ADVANCING COOL AIR AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED SUBFREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. THE GFS AND ECWMF TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. AND FROM THIS A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PROLONGED ELEVATED WARM LAYER. BEST BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WILL RUN FROM ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-40.
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEING GENERATED BY THIS TROUGH AS IT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF MVFR/IRF CIGS AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
529 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015/ THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO THE LOWER 30S IN NORTH ALABAMA. THE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION QUICKLY OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COMBINATION BY MID MORNING AND THEN TO ALL RAIN BY 18Z ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DURATION OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY MORNING.
A cold front will continue moving south through the area overnight, expected first to reach KHOB by 05Z, KMAF around 07Z, and KFST at 11Z. This trough will drive a cold front through the area later today. Also have a cut off low over Baja that is moving east toward the area and may just skirt the area as the trough pushes it south. The unusually warm wx will be coming to an end shortly as a cold front approaches the area. Models want to lift the front a little tomorrow across the western CWA with a south wind briefly returning but another surge tomorrow night will shove the front up against the higher elevations. Increasing clouds behind the front should help to hold overnight temps above freezing for most of the region.
TEMPERATURES WERE VERY SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY AND WILL END UP IN THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
937 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COLD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SECOND CANADIAN COLD FRONT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES INCLUDING JOHNSON COUNTY WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG HORN MTNS.
WE DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT/SURGE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE FEEL THE HIGHEST THREAT OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR THIS EXTENDED EVENT WOULD FOCUS IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS. BEHIND THE LINE IS THE COLD FRONT.
959 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SLEET THIS EVENING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONT TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEADING TO MORE OF THE FA CHANGING OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION. MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST WINTER PRECIPITATION /FREEZING RAIN. WITH COLDER TEMPS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. /ISSUED 611 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015/ FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID-EVENING CAUSING ICE ACCUMULATIONS. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL KEEP ICY ROADS AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH AND INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS.
611 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID-EVENING CAUSING ICE ACCUMULATIONS. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL KEEP ICY ROADS AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH AND INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS.
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO BECOME NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WARMER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. AS THE TRACK OF THE SFC TROF HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER N. IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FREEZING LINE AT THE SFC WILL DO WELL TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA AT ALL PRIOR TO THE PRECIP MOVING OUT. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS OUR EXTREME NRN COUNTIES OF SE OK/SW AR. PARTICULARLY WITH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WITH THE MORE NWD/WARMER TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
450 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EWD IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT COASTAL STORM EAST OF THE CNDN MARITIMES. HIGH PRES RIDGE WELL NORTH OF FL WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THEN EASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST HAS BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS EVE WITH A DRY COOL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR CWA. A SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW SENT A DRY COLD FRONT THRU THE CWA TODAY LOWERING TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND GENERATED A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE NRN MTNS. COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS AREA WIDE AND SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH WITH A SMALL THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN MTNS. THE DRY COOLER AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TUE BUT STARTS WARMING ALOFT DURING THE AFTN AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WED BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS TO COLLAPSE AND REDEVELOP OFFSHORE AGAIN ON THU.
MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY AT CHA AND TYS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE MORNING AT CHA WHILE TYS MAY SEE SOME SNOW TO START WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE AND INTO OUR AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (1004 MB) IS TAKING SHAPE OVER MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 850 MB ALLOWING SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO PUSH INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN TOWARD MORNING.
High cirrus clouds continue to push into the area ahead of a developing low pressure system in the southern Plains. Rain is not expected overnight as the low in question should still be in Texas at 12Z Monday. However, increasing high cloud layers should keep temperatures toward the warmer end of guidance, which has been the trend over the past couple hours.
RANGING FROM A HALF INCH OUT BY BRIDGEPORT TO 2 INCHES AT GLENDO.
A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOVERING OVER THE WEST COAST.
654 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.
548 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AS EXPECTED AND IS BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT BLOWING DUST TO KLBB. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH SUNSET AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HIGHER PWATS. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEHIND THE FRONT AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A MODEST 700MB TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY 18Z MON. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT MINOR TROUGH WITH SOME POPS ARRIVES MON NIGHT. STRONGER TROUGHING SHOULD DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEVADA FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.
TEMPERATURES VERSUS TWENTY FOURS AGO ARE ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 40 DEGREES COLDER AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FUNNELING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THANKS TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MODELS HOLD ONTO THIS MAYBE 4000 FOOT LAYER OF SUB FREEZING AIR WITH THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FREEZING RAIN AXIS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THE BEST CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY FROM MENA TO DE WITT BUT AXIS NOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND ALONG A HOT SPRINGS TO LITTLE ROCK TO WEST MEMPHIS LINE. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW COULD OCCUR SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE HELD ONTO.
OUR REGION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS TO OUR EAST AND RIDGE/WARM CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST. WED/THU WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHIFT EAST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 35 27 35 / 20 100 80 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 21 31 23 33 / 10 100 90 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 21 30 23 33 / 20 100 90 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 13 29 24 30 / 20 100 100 10 NC.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF DRY TO THE REGION AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 270K SURFACE WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER VALUES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
849 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED SUBFREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. THE GFS AND ECWMF TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. AND FROM THIS A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PROLONGED ELEVATED WARM LAYER. BEST BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WILL RUN FROM ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-40.
646 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY.