Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a surface trof of lower pressure works across the lower Ohio valley today, it will help focus updrafts in high CAPE, diurnally charged/souped environ, for scattered showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rains possible, and a marginal risk of svr storms. However, overall height falls further up the Ohio Valley, and height rises in the High Plains, means the teleconnected flow pattern will be nwlys aloft across the mid Mississippi valley, which will be an enabling flow for initiating mainly diurnal shower/storm activity. A warmup to more extreme heat/humidity is anticipated next work week as the Height falls over the mid and upper Ohio valley shift eastward, with ridging High Plains heights working their way across the middle and upper Mississippi valley.
Basic upper level pattern will be trough over eastern U.
Temperatures were also running a few degrees below forecast so decided to lower highs from the mid 90s to the lower 90s, and bump dewpoints up a a few degrees as well. An upper-level trough combined with a weak surface boundary will allow for VCTS conditions across most locations through 30/00z. Combined with a weak upper trough axis over the region, these boundaries should provide for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest/Southern Arkansas.
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A broad but positively tilted trough was noted on afternoon water vapor imagery over Iowa. A weak upper jet streak, noted by drying on the water vapor imagery was rounding the base of the trough. This trough and associated jet streak is likely providing the vertical lift to get a few showers and storms going in southeastern and south central Nebraska. But the upper trough will be slow to pass by the region so there may be enough upper level support to allow showers and storms to last a little longer into the evening.
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the southern CONUS, pinched in two by a sort of col over Texas as an upper trough moves into the MS Valley. Over the next few days, the col is forecast to dissipate, and the upper ridge develop back into Texas, leading to a gradual upward tick in highs each day.
The coastal storms are related to seabreeze boundary while the rest have developed in the region of some weak shear axis between upper ridges situated west and east of the area.
Otherwise, only made minor updates to hourly temperatures and dew points based on observations with afternoon temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid 90s today. Upper air analysis at 500mb for 00Z shows upper level ridge over the Desert SW with another ridge over the W Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas. In between the two ridges is a weakness with slight troughing from the Great Lakes towards the Texas Gulf Coast.
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak upper level trough and stalled front will keep chances for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the forecast through Saturday.
A few storms may drift toward the east to the north of the mid level ridge mainly north of the Cape with slow movement across central/srn sections near the mid level ridge axis. Highs in the lower 90s along the immediate coast and mid 90s for the interior.
However, it is possible that yesterday's convection has spread enough cooler, more stable air south to limit convection across parts of the plains today. This would mainly be for plains east of I-25 and also away from the Palmer and Raton Ridges. This is where the cooler, more stable air is most likely to have an impact on limiting convection. As you near the mountains and ridges, the depth of the cool, stable air will decrease and lifting of the air by the terrain will increase. So, areas in or near the mountain and ridges, will have better odds of developing convection.
Weakening high pressure aloft will result in another very warm day today across inland areas, with seasonably cool temperatures along the coast with continued weak onshore flow. A cooling trend is slated to begin during the weekend as an upper level trough approaches the west coast. Conditions overall will be similar to yesterday with comfortable readings at the coast while widespread upper 80s to the lower 100s can be expected inland. Latest model guidance in continues to show a wind shift more to the south and southeast over the weekend as a longwave trough approaches the west coast. Today is expected to be another hot day across inland areas, but cooler temperatures are on the way.
Sky cover could really stick around today, and keep conditions cooler, which will lead to reduced chance of thunderstorms from developing. Only minor changes were made to the forecast with small chances of rain pretty much anytime in the short term with highs today near 80 to the lower 80s and lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s. Northwest flow continues across the plains early in the period, then a broad ridge pushes through the region early in the week.
The current VFR conditions should continue today with a mix of clouds and sun, along with light to moderate southeast winds as high pressure centered over the Gulf remains in control on the large scale. /issued 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure will be centered both over the Desert Southwest and off the Eastern Seaboard during the forecast period, with a weakness in between these two systems along the Texas coastline and over the western Gulf of Mexico. The result of this pattern will be isolated showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and tomorrow, with streamer activity not anticipated over the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight due to a brief drop in available tropical moisture.
Upper low disturbance responsible for the clouds and seasonably cool temperatures will move east later tonight and Saturday.
The culprit remains slow moving/nearly cutoff low pressure meandering eastward toward northern IL at this hour. Water vapor satellite early this morning showed a short wave trough over the Nebraska/Iowa border, another over central South Dakota with a third over Montana. These showers should taper off this evening with a dry overnight expected as the short wave troughs move east of the region.
/issued 344 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The center of the upper high will remain over the Great Basin again today, with the upper ridge axis stretched across the southern tier of the CONUS. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s.
Upper ridge nudges northward on Saturday which will keep precipitation chances to a minimum.
with a ridge centered over the four corners region.
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The models are in good agreement with cyclonic flow aloft and continuing to suppress the upper level ridging to the south.
A weak to moderate short wave trof currently over the ms river valley this afternoon will continue drift eastward through sat helping to provide better forcing or lift across lower ms river valley and central gulf states through sat afternoon.
Low pressure located between KBMI and KLAF will drift slowly east into north central Indiana through the course of the day.
Agree with the Storm Prediction Center outlook of marginal risk along and east of a Douglas to Laramie line this afternoon and evening based on the events of the past few days, as well as the proximity of a low and mid level theta-e ridge axis of instability residing north to south across far southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. With less low and mid level moisture availability and warmer temperatures at mid levels of the atmosphere, expect less coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along with warmer temperatures at NAM and GFS guidance temperatures suggest.
437 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Anti-cyclonic flow around an elongated ridge of high pressure, located northeast of Southern Florida will prolong the easterly flow pattern aloft today. Due to a relatively high freezing level, above 15000 ft msl, only small hail is expected to reach the ground.
Pops in non mention category Saturday as ridge begins to expand eastward and northward of our region. James Forecast remains mostly about the upper level ridge over the southern tier of the continental US, its magnitude, and location of its center/centers in relation to the southern high plains. A flat, pretty uniform ridge through the weekend will amplify early next work week with two centers forming, one of the 4-corners and the other over East Texas/eastern Oklahoma and roughly generally remain that way through the week.
Exactly where it comes to rest is the big question, and of course will be a major determining factor on where to expect the highest precipitation probabilities. Aloft our region remains in a broad H5 trough with a seemingly never ending parade of upper level disturbances. Timing/placement of synoptic features still showing some variance among models so trying to pin down the highest probabilities still difficult at this time.
Dry weather is anticipated for tonight and early Saturday with an upper ridge developing. Cannot rule out a lone shower or thunderstorm as well given this forcing for ascent with the weak vorticity maxima approaching, though moisture will be limited with best dynamics in Canada with the upper low/trough.
136 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 19z surface analysis had old frontal boundary from central WY into central KS with weak trough into the Black Hills. 5KJ/kg MLCAPE has developed along this trough with 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk shear. Saturday and Saturday night, upper ridge builds from the southwest US into the northern plains with implied subsidence and drying. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer.
Upper pattern dominated at this time by upper level high pressure sitting over the four corners and a broad mid level trough over the upper mid west through the Ohio Valley. As a result, precip chances will be brought into the high scattered category.
A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through the weekend. Another mostly sunny and hazy day is taking place across our area as a large upper high pressure ridge remains parked over the desert southwest.
and Saturday Slow moving short wave trough continues to track over mainly the south half of the state and producing scattered showers and isolated storms over east central Wisconsin early this morning. Pieces of energy in this trough were generating spotty convection over the south half of the state. But since surface dewpoints still near 60 under the trough, will linger isolated shower and storm mention today over east central this morning and then areas south of highway 10 this afternoon and early evening. But the potential of breaks in the clouds occurring later morning between the subtle pieces of energy in the trough prevent lowering max temps at this time.
As a strong 500 mb low pressure moves into the Pac NW, weak upper level ridging and WAA will develop over the Northern Plains.
The second is more widely scattered activity that develops underneath upper TROF digging in overhead and will largely be restricted to where the best lift from this feature is--areas south of I-70. The third is from a surface TROF across northern IL and southern IA providing additional low level convergence. TES The primary cold front is rather ill-defined early this morning but best guess would place it across southwest IL and across southern MO into northern OK at 08z. Otherwise slightly cooler and slight drier air will gradually filter into the region, especially tonight in the wake of the second boundary as weak high pressure settles southward from the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region.
A weak cold frontal boundary over the IA/MO border will push to the south creating just enough forcing for some isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms to form over the western CWA. Overnight Saturday, the boundary begins to lift back towards the NE as a warm frontal boundary with a low level jet developing over SE KS.
This area had persistent cloud cover and much cooler temperatures and consequently will be much more stable. As for Saturday night, the CWA starts to become engulfed in a ridge that is moving in from the west. The current NAM model run shows the region to be dry due to the ridge cutting off the moisture inflow from the southwestern states.
Over the south, a large, sprawling, persistent ridge remains locked in. In the ridge over the south remains a weakness over the lower MS valley in the form of a weak cyclonic shear axis. This axis has served as a focus for waves dipping down from the northwest, as well as, waves moving on the underside of the ridge.
The daytime heating combined with the low-level convergence and weak upper-level trough across the region will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Broad trough axis over the region now with a few smaller vortmaxes embedded within its flow. As it heads eastward, the NAM responds by developing a line of storms along the lower Ohio and Wabash later this afternoon. Previous forecast had higher pops, and do not want to rule out chances altogether, given the troughing over the region.
133 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday.
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Thunderstorms developed ahead of windshift/cold front moving through our eastern counties.
For much of the work week, we have been sandwiched between two upper level ridges - one just to the west of the Four Corners area and another to the east over the southeastern United States.
151 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday.
Aloft a 579 dm 500 mb low near the IA/IL border will track east across the southern Great Lakes tonight and bring the upper level trof axis southeast aross central IL this evening. 500 mb trof axis to shift off to our east Saturday night taking any lingering shower chances with it.
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in moisture for the weekend. Upper level ridge off the southeast coast with southwest flow aloft across our area. As an upper level trough digs into the MS River Valley could see weak short wave cross the Upstate this afternoon. Upper level trough stretching through the OH and MS valley region will slowly shift eastward through the weekend providing a better chance for storms than in recent days. Lee side troughing will continue while a frontal boundary remains across the Mid-Atlantic states, well north of the forecast area.
501 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Cooler and drier Canadian High pressure builds across the area tonight through Saturday.
These pleasant conditions will continue into the overnight hours, as high pressure settles into the region.
Extensive cloud cover over the forecast area starting off this afternoon under the influence of a trough of low pressure aloft trailing Southwest across the region and a tropical weakness between a large ridge of high pressure aloft over just west of the four corners region and another over North Florida and the Eastern gulf and the South Atlantic Coast off North Florida. Temperatures were also running a few degrees below forecast so decided to lower highs from the mid 90s to the lower 90s, and bump dewpoints up a a few degrees as well.
As for temps, slightly warmer but still seasonal conds expected today with 80s most areas. Waa will allow warmer temps sat with 90s expected on the plains.
Most of the risk for short lived funnel clouds, with storms along inverted trough from far north central Illinois southeastward, should remain in that area. Persistent northeast winds should keep highs a bit cooler near Lake Michigan on Saturday.
A large stratocumulus shield wrapped around the departing trough has affected most of Iowa through today, resulting in the aforementioned cool temperatures, and has shown only a little breakup in satellite imagery. Saturday will be similar to today but the light showers and thicker cloud cover should slowly continue to translate eastward, allowing fore some spotty sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures.
High pressure dropping south so light winds overnight and a generally clear sky. Low levels a bit drier than yesterday so will likely see minimums a few degrees cooler than last night. Dependent on cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees warmer with enough solar as column warms slightly.
The front slowly slips offshore on Friday as low pressure track east along the front offshore of Cape Cod.
Early morning convection spread a large area of cooler air across the northern 2/3 of the forecast area. The area of cooler air with temperatures in the 70s may put a temporary damper on additional convective initiation. On Friday generally cooler temperatures are expected across the forecast area with isolated thunderstorms possible. For the majority of the period the CWA will be impacted by a ridge.
A few light showers were occurring across the far northeast near surface trof axis. The cloudiness will keep temperatures slightly warmer than otherwise would be the case with the airmass that's in place. However, the backside of the upper low a cool temps aloft may lead to a few isolated showers across the eastern portion of the forecast area and have continued a low chance in those areas. Temperatures will remain below normal with thermal trof nearby along extensive cloudiness.
726 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. increased low-level moisture and weak trough/frontal boundary in the vicinity should be a much better focus for convection than the area has seen in awhile.
Water vapor imagery and 29/00Z upper-air plots show a ridge centered over southern Nevada and Utah with east to northeast flow aloft, generally from around 775MB up to around 275MB. As of 03Z (8 PM MST), temperatures ranged from the lower to mid 80s along the international border, to the mid to upper 90s for areas farther north.
Short wave embedded in mid and upper trough will keep showers and a few thunderstorms going tonight. Surface front off to our northwest will turn stationary on Friday and along with the Upper trough will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend.
/issued 413 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016/ A strong cell of high pressure north of the Bahamas will bring easterly flow to the region through this weekend.
Temperatures vary throughout the Mid-South this afternoon with highs reaching the lower 90's in North Eastern Arkansas where there is less cloud cover,to the mid to lower 80s in the southern sections of our coverage area where cloud cover and storms exist.
Otherwise, high pressure will build into Northeast Montana tonight with mainly dry weather.
Adjusted PoPs to reflect current radar trends with activity diminishing by midnight per the high resolution models. Rain chances begin to wane considerably beginning tomorrow and into the weekend while temperatures rise with building high pressure aloft.
Additional upper level waves will move through the broad trough that is situated over the area. Upper level wise a large scale trough will setup across much of the Eastern CONUS, meanwhile the upper level high will be suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is expected to hang on through much of the period before a ridge builds back east from the Southern and Central Plains by mid to late week.
Rain chances begin to wane considerably beginning tomorrow and into the weekend while temperatures rise with building high pressure aloft.
Believe conditions will generally be dry and cooler than normal earlier in the period with any scant precip chances affecting mainly eastern NE.
1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South- Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift southward into southern New England.
A cold front will move into the DHT and GUY TAF sites late tonight shifting the winds around to the north.
This warm temperature inversion will maintain warm dry conditions overnight for the higher elevations around the area. Both models maintain a ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest tomorrow.
Very warm and dry conditions will persist inland through Friday as high pressure remains aloft. Meanwhile, cooler conditions will continue near the coast as a result of onshore flow. A region- wide cooling trend is then forecast for the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Very warm conditions persist again this afternoon as a strong ridge of high pressure remains over much of the southwestern portion of the country. Afternoon conditions on Friday will be similar to today as the ridge aloft remains the dominate weather feature.
Cooler. Between the cloud cover and winds maintaining an easterly component through the day, temperatures will be noticeably cooler Friday, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 80s.
The mid-upper trough/low that brought showers and storms earlier today through this evening is continuing to move across the OH/MS river valleys. Lastly, tweaks to the air and dewpoint temperature forecast were also necessary to account for rain-cooled air that was cooler or warmer that what was forecast. MVFR ceilings should continue until around 17z, when the lower clouds are expected to scatter with lower level VFR ceilings expected through the end of the forecast period.
We should be some changes with the pattern by the weekend as the upper ridge begins to build back over the area.
(Issued 849 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016) The mid-upper trough/low that brought showers and storms earlier today through this evening is continuing to move across the OH/MS river valleys. Lastly, tweaks to the air and dewpoint temperature forecast were also necessary to account for rain-cooled air that was cooler or warmer that what was forecast.
Areas of fog are possible late tonight and continue into early tomorrow morning on the higher terrain of western Nebraska and eastward into the Platte River Valley in Lincoln County. Left the CWA in slight chance POPs through the afternoon period due to the high amount of forecast uncertainty.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints are a hair under 80.
1001 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Low pressure developing along the mid-Atlantic coast will spread showers across northeast Pennsylvania tonight and Friday morning.
Current temperatures are much cooler than forecast due to the rain, so will update hourly temps but lows should end up close to the current forecast.
The low clouds should hang in through most of the morning tomorrow, lifting around midday.
Still looking at some fog along the Cheyenne Ridge and portions of the Nebraska Panhandle.
By this morning the winds had become southerly through most of the atmosphere below 100 mb as the upper ridge moves east and that trend continues tonight.
Tonight and Friday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show weak areas of low pressure spinning over southwest Wisconsin and also over central Illinois. Friday Night Through Thursday Canadian high pressure and associated drier air will be ridged across the northern Great Lakes through the weekend.
Models continue to trend slightly cooler through the weekend as high pressure weakens and gradients weakly trend onshore.
1024 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Upper level low pressure will spread southeast across the plains tonight, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas mainly west of the James Valley. Highs Friday will range from the mid 70s in northwest Iowa to the lower 80s along and west of the James Valley.
Strong high pressure over northwestern Arizona will weaken as low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest.