Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Broad upper low continues a very slow trek across the Tennessee Valley today, with a deformation band still pivoting slowly across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Look for a break in the precip overnight once the main upper low is far enough east, but a secondary disturbance will dive SSE out of Manitoba, bringing another round of showers to the Ohio Valley on Saturday and keeping temps unseasonably chilly. Low freezing levels and steep low-level lapse rates could even support some small hail late in the day in east-central and south-central Kentucky. Persistent cloud cover will limit max temps to the mid/upper 50s north and east of a line from Tell City to Lake Cumberland, and just the lower/mid 60s in south central KY. We'll clear off from west to east Sat night as high pressure builds in.
814 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. Expect showers/possible storm overnight under the mid-level trough which will slowly pull north and east. With the northwest flow, cooler air will also overspread the region tonight. Showers will continue on Saturday as upper level low moves across the Upper Ohio valley.
1040 PM MDT Fri May 5 2017 20z surface analysis had weak high east of the CWA with return flow starting to develop in the west ahead of developing lee trough from central MT into central WY. Large upper ridge moving into the Plains states per water vapour.
Backdoor cool front is expected to work in from the northeast through the overnight hours with slightly cooler air working into the region. Still expecting dry conditions to continue on Saturday, just with temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler. The greatest temperature difference will be across the eastern portions of the forecast area, where the deeper cooler air will exist. Upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across the area, yielding dry and warm conditions.
728 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Aviation Low pressure will move northeast tonight and skies will clear.
703 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Mid afternoon surface map shows 993 mb low pressure over northern WV while 548 dm 500 mb low was along the eastern TN/KY border. Strong NNW winds of 15-30 mph and gusts of 25 to 40 mph prevailed today, with strongest winds over eastern IL closer to low pressure system. 12Z forecast models lift strong low pressure and associated upper level low, into western PA/NY by 12Z/Sat, with pressure gradient weakening over CWA by early evening and NNW winds diminishing at sundown.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Breezy, dry weather occurred today with a ridge of high pressure over the Plains.
1246 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Aviation Low pressure will move northeast tonight and skies will clear.
The upper level trough that was located in the coastal waters this afternoon will move inland and remain anchored along the West Coast on Saturday while its southern end splits off into a closed low. High pressure will bring drier weather to most of our forecast area Saturday afternoon, The only exception is from Highway 395 east in Lake and Modoc Counties where wrapped around moisture from the closed low to the south bring upslope conditions into the Warners.
/issued 353 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) Dry northwest flow aloft in the Texas area will transition to upper level ridging by Saturday afternoon. This dry pattern will allow continued quiet weather with near normal, or slightly warmer than normal afternoon temperatures through Saturday evening. Lows tonight will be cooler than normal, but not as cold as we saw this morning, with some lows as cool as the upper 30s.
620 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 A fantastic weekend awaits as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
The closed low over TN that has been plaguing our weather for the last few days has finally moved off to our East as an open wave within the main East Coast trough. The tight surface pressure gradient responsible for our breezy winds has also moved off to the east and relaxed, so most locations are already observing light to calm winds as ridging begins to build in across the area. Ridging at the surface and aloft will get underway Saturday and begin a warming trend over the area. While cooler low to middle 70s will be common in the east, the increased ridging in the west will result in lower 80s being achieved. As the upper low continues to push off to the east, the upper ridge moves into the South.
539 PM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Very strong upper ridge in place over the Rockies this afternoon and will continue to dominate the weather across the area through Saturday. Temperatures will be even warmer Saturday afternoon as 700 mb temps continue to warm with the ridge directly overhead. A few isolated thunderstorms may be able to develop over the higher terrain of the Snowys and Sierra Madres Saturday afternoon but would not expect much coverage due to the strength of subsidence aloft.
high pressure to the northwest maintaining the N-NW winds at 23z but these should relax quickly as temperatures fall rapidly in the dry atmosphere. Light and variable winds tonight as surface ridging slides across the region and clear skies will again allow for a cool morning on Saturday with temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
640 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 VFR through Saturday under an upper ridge. /issued 253 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ With the entrance of an upper ridge from the west, a quiet weather pattern is set as we head into the weekend. As the ridge builds in and thicknesses increase, we'll see markedly warmer highs on Saturday, with several places breaching 90.
Temperatures are mainly in the low to upper 60s this afternoon, with sunny skies across the entire area right now.
Skies continue to clear across eastern portions of the area as the upper trough axis continues to progress from the TN/OH Valley region toward the eastern CONUS. The ongoing forecast looks on track, with another cool night expected with lows well below normal in the lower to mid 40s inland, and upper 40s to lower 50s near the immediate coast.
925 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 A couple of strong short wave troughs will rotate around the base of the long wave trough over the southeast US.
High pressure now over the region will yield light and variable to nil winds overnight. High pressure has settled into the region and winds will continue to taper off this evening into the weekend.
932 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper low now over east Tennessee is slowly moving east with bands of light rain showers rotating around it. Showers will slowly decrease from the southwest later tonight as upper low moves away.
931 PM PDT Fri May 5 2017 Cooler with a chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
Light and variable winds tonight as surface ridging slides across the region and clear skies will again allow for a cool morning on Saturday with temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands tonight into Saturday as the 500mb ridge across the west central United States continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. Texas is situated firmly in the middle of the H5 ridge, keeping stable weather continuing in the short term.
Overnight lows are expected to be a few degrees warmer tonight than last night but with light winds and clear skies there still will likely be variability across short distances. Mid-level ridging across the Plains will warm temperatures to slightly above average (low to mid-80Fs).
1024 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Currently - A late season cold front moved through the Florida Keys this evening. Winds have strengthened somewhat out of the northwest, bringing in drier and somewhat cooler air. Short Term Update - Moderate to fresh northwest breezes will continue tonight in wake of the earlier cold front. Expect overnight lows in the lower 70s. Winds have turned northwest and strengthened a bit in wake of a recent cold front.
Mid afternoon surface map shows 993 mb low pressure over northern WV while 548 dm 500 mb low was along the eastern TN/KY border. Strong NNW winds of 15-30 mph and gusts of 25 to 40 mph prevailed today, with strongest winds over eastern IL closer to low pressure system. 12Z forecast models lift strong low pressure and associated upper level low, into western PA/NY by 12Z/Sat, with pressure gradient weakening over CWA by early evening and NNW winds diminishing at sundown.
Upper level ridging will build over the Western High Plains tonight and Saturday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 50s, with afternoon highs on Saturday ranging from the lower 70s east to the lower 80s west.
The low will move well southeast of our region by Saturday evening, taking any shower chances with it. High pressure will build southward out of Canada for the remainder of the weekend.
Mild and dry conditions persist through the short term period as the upper level ridge axis slowly builds east into the western Dakotas for tomorrow.
Winds will become light and variable this evening as high pressure ridge remains along the coast. Another cool and pleasant night in store for S TX tonight as a dry airmass and high pressure remain in place. Highs will also be a little warmer Sat.
High pressure has settled into the region and winds will continue to taper off this evening into the weekend.
This allowed the sun to come out and several spots have had temperatures climb into the low 60s before sunset.
1200 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Large ridge through the central CONUS all the way into central Canada. There is an upper trough along the west coast. Models having no problems with the upper ridge over the southern through northern plains. There is a lot of warm drier air underneath the ridge. After a warm start to the day temperatures will climb into the low 80s over most of western Nebraska.
Upper level low is spinning over West Virginia and moving east. The temperature hit 54 degrees at 253 am and has not gotten any warmer. It will warm nicely with highs ranging from the lower 60s along the plateau to the lower/mid 70s along the river. It looks like another upper distrubance will slide down the backside of the lower and will keep chance pops across the forecast area.
Sfc ridging to our west this evening will move ovhd overnight with winds becoming mostly calm. Ridge axis remains in place across Eastern OK into Northwest LA through much of the day Sat with mostly west to west northwest winds between 5 and 10kts.
Southwesterly to south-southwesterly flow aloft will persist as an upper ridge slowly exits our CWA to the east and an upper trough continues moving-in from the west. In addition, a Pacific cold front is approaching from the west and should cross the Continental Divide tonight before potentially nearing the Chinook, Lewistown, and Dillon areas by early Saturday evening.
Poor flight conditions continue as large upper level low pressure system rotates through the area.
637 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 With a pair of high pressures over the Central Plains and off the Texas coast clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all terminals. Moisture levels will remain low in part to an upper level ridge slowly moving closer to the central plains with two deep low-pressure systems on either side of the amplified ridge (Omega Block).
1056 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 An area of upper level low pressure will slowly move northeast into the Appalachians tonight, with rain expected to come to an end over the Ohio Valley during the overnight hours.
542 PM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper ridge axis over the Rockies today will shift eastward to the High Plains on Saturday.
755 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 An area of upper level low pressure will slowly move northeast into the Appalachians tonight, with rain expected to come to an end over the Ohio Valley during the overnight hours.
Northwest periphery of the extensive mid level deformation axis associated with a closed low now over eastern TN still in place this afternoon across far southeastern sections of the forecast area. Increasing mid level stability as the mean trough axis settles east tonight will then favor retention of dry conditions for the overnight period under cool northerly flow. Northern stream wave and accompanying 115kt upper jet will dig into the resident mean longwave trough tonight, propagating south- southeast across Lake Michigan and points west through early Saturday. This track now seemingly favors less interaction with the existing troughing parked over Lake Huron. The net result is now a much weaker signal for possible renewed trough development/expansion back into southeast Michigan on Saturday. Deep layer north-northwest flow will hold through this period within the backside of high amplitude troughing centered over the east coast.
Upper trough axis will pivot across the area this evening. Clouds will gradually break up after midnight as the trough axis rapidly lifts northeast away from the area.
Proton 6PM Update: Lee trough will keep wind light from the southeast across the region this evening and through the overnight hours. An upper ridge over Montana today will be weakening a bit into Saturday as an upper trough over the west coast deepens then splits.
1100 PM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Very strong upper ridge in place over the Rockies this afternoon and will continue to dominate the weather across the area through Saturday. Temperatures will be even warmer Saturday afternoon as 700 mb temps continue to warm with the ridge directly overhead. A few isolated thunderstorms may be able to develop over the higher terrain of the Snowys and Sierra Madres Saturday afternoon but would not expect much coverage due to the strength of subsidence aloft.
6PM Update: Lee trough will keep wind light from the southeast across the region this evening and through the overnight hours. An upper ridge over Montana today will be weakening a bit into Saturday as an upper trough over the west coast deepens then splits.
Very pleasant conditions are expected today, as the region remains under the influence of high pressure over the Ohio Valley.
There may be some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight along with some fog. Otherwise high pressure builds into the region overnight and remains over the area on Monday and Tuesday.
354 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Latest WPC surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico east northeastward towards the Carolinas. Subsidence from strong high pressure aloft will continue to bring warmer than normal weather. Maximum temperatures are forecast to again reach the lower 80s along the immediate coastline and mid 80s further inland.
450 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Cold front across the area today will bring cloudy skies and rain then move offshore this evening.
A surface reflection of this wave was also moving east across western Kansas with northerly winds developing behind the low. Behind this, the upper flow becomes more west to southwest tonight through Monday as a strong trough digs along the West Coast. At the surface, a trough will begin to develop tonight along the eastern slopes of the Colorado\New Mexico Rockies. Monday night into Tuesday, the West Coast trough closes off into an upper low over southern California.
302 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 A mid-level ridging pattern will continue to advance over the Central Plains today, maintaining fair weather conditions until the next storm system approaches late Tuesday. Ample sunshine today will lead to increased mixing within the lower levels this afternoon. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area, with above-freezing overnight lows as warm advection persists. The persistent warming trend will send afternoon highs into the low to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances will then return Tuesday night within the warm sector underneath a weak mid- level wave ejecting out of a deep southwestern CONUS upper low.
/issued 926 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/ Strong positively tilted upper level trough axis is currently residing across Eastern Kansas and pulling out of the OK/TX Pnhdl region of the country late this evening. Lift in association with this trough axis is confined to our southern and eastern zones, in association with the large rain shield across these same locations. The back edge of this rain shield continues to make slow but steady progress eastward across the Lower Toledo Bend Country of Deep East Texas into portions of Central and Northeast Louisiana. With drier mid level air rapidly infiltrating our region from the west with the arrival of the trough, have removed pops for the remainder of the night for all but our southeast third where pops are still categorical in nature.
Flat upper level ridge was over the area. A little warmer today. A little warmer today. Weak cold front will propagate through the region. Temperatures will be cooler compared with Monday, but overall still near normal values.
334 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will build across the region through Tuesday then move east Tuesday night.
This high will build across the Ohio Valley providing continued dry conditions through Tuesday.
That's when we'll experience some upper height ridging, as well as a return to lower trop southerlies.
/Issued 308 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/ An upper trough will push east across the Panhandles this evening and will usher in a surface boundary tracking north to south across the forecast area. Southerly to southwesterly 35 to 45 knot LLJ to develop Monday night as a cold front pushes south through the central Plains and central Rockies Tuesday.
433 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 The Bermuda high is centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda as a cold front stretches from the central gulf coast, through the deep south, into New England. Meanwhile, the mean- layered (850-300 mb) ridge will transition into the western Gulf of Mexico. Mid to late week, an upper level trough will begin digging through the Central Plains.
253 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures through Tuesday night.
349 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Fairly quiet period for the short term with a few clouds, a passing clipper, and warmer temperatures the main story. Southerly to southwesterly winds today will usher in warmer temperatures with highs in the middle 30s to low 40s. Temperatures will trend cooler for Tuesday with highs from the low 30s northwest to near 40 southeast.
Strong ridging will persist aloft into Thu as mid-level anticyclone centered over mid Gulf dominates large expanse of Gulf Coast and FL. Trough along the Great Plains early Thu advances to the Great Lakes region by late in the day, with associated cold front approaching the NW peninsula toward 02/06Z. Cold air advection will keep max temps about 10 degrees cooler than Thu and fairly close to climo. Ridge axis across the central to southern waters will keep a more southerly flow across the area, becoming E/SE near the coast, esp south of Cape Canaveral in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. High pressure along the Carolina coast Tue will advance offshore Wed/Thu as a cold front approaches the N FL waters by late Thu.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure stretching west across the area from the Atlantic Ocean will shift slowly south as a cold front moves into north Florida today then dissipates across central Florida on Tuesday. Another area of high pressure builds in from the north during Tuesday with slightly cooler drier air moving into portions of the Nature Coast. For today we'll see some patchy fog early this morning then mostly sunny, warm, and somewhat muggy weather is expected by this afternoon as the low level southeast to south flow shifts to southwest to west as the west coast sea breeze develops and the front approaches from the north.
944 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 Upper trough continues to push across the central states, with another wave moving into the Pacific Northwest, and ridging in between. Surface winds are southwesterly around 10-20 kts, with a weak warm front moving into the CWA. Warmer air will continue to advect into the area on Monday, with the region under southwest flow.
Allowed winter storm warnings to expire across central Idaho and through the Lower Clark Fork region.
1254 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will gradually build across the region over the next few days, to bring dry weather, with mild temperatures for the end of February. Sprawling high pressure at the surface, and zonal flow aloft, will characterize the prevailing pattern during the early part of the week.
1259 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will weaken across the area tonight and then give way to a cold front that will slowly move through the region Monday night.
251 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will drift east over the next 24 hours which will bring increasing southerly flow back to Missouri and Illinois. Mostly clear sky should prevail tonight as well under broadscale mid and upper level ridging. Other than those spots, think lows will be pretty uniform in the low to mid 40s across the forecast area. The combination of west-southwest flow aloft associated with weak upper level ridging and increasing south-southwest low level flow and attendant WAA should translate to well above normal high temperatures.
This will allow temperatures to climb into the low 60s, especially for those west of I-65. Dry conditions and clear skies will continue into Monday night and Tuesday as high pressure dominates, but by Tuesday evening, we're going to be right back in the thick of things.
Low temperatures look to range from the low teens west to low 20s east. For Monday just a few high clouds and warmer. Those lower dewpoints and slightly warmer temperatures will produce critical fire weather conditions over much of the area. Will have to watch for possibility of some low clouds and perhaps some freezing fog in the morning if the NAM boundary layer humidity verifies behind the cold front. Visibility forecasts show dense freezing fog developing. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Warmer guidance choices are preferred considering snow cover is gone and sunshine will be plentiful during Monday afternoon. This will be driven mainly by the low pressure system moving through central Canada and as high pressure remains anchored to the Atlantic coast sharpening the gradient flow across the Great Lakes. The NAM and GFS model soundings in are good agreement with starting out the day strongly stable and decoupled in the low levels before building a mixed layer to near 850 mb during Tuesday afternoon. Record highs are in the upper 50s for MBS and FNT, and in the lower 60s at DTW.
The good news is the aforementioned 500mb trough axis across the Midwest will aid in pushing the surface features eastward and the 300mb jet streak will continue to track northward decreasing the divergence aloft. The 500mb trough also pushes drier air east and think we could see clearing skies from northwest to southeast through the late morning and afternoon.
A cold front over northern California will sweep southward with light to moderate rain arriving in the forecast area late tonight and Monday morning. Some snow is likely in the highest area peaks.
341 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will reside across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night.
Byrd Dry and mild weather to persist through Tuesday with highs by Tuesday in the low to mid 60s.
By late in the day cooler air starts to overrun warm surface layer and could develop some light rain or drizzle, but have chances to low in this period to include in tafs.
1141 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to advance east-northeast across the forecast area late this evening just ahead of a cold front.
Warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday with breezy to windy conditions across northeastern New Mexico Monday afternoon.
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Aviation High pressure will build in and bring fair weather tonight through Tuesday.