Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROF WAS DEVELOPING AS IT WAS DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. AND THE NORTHERN WAVE WAS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS TONIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ITS ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
417 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST. AS IT WILL RELY ON THE SPEED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR. IF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP.
412 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY MID MORNING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SNOW IN FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
352 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.
1239 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS HEADING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.
1005 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 PERSISTENT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP FROM AROUND EDGEMONT TO PINE RIDGE AND EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OR SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL VERY NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER SUNSET AS A UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
04/06Z TAF CYCLE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF DAY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
1221 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST. AS IT WILL RELY ON THE SPEED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
353 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH LOUISIANA BY 00Z AND OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S EASTERN AREAS TO NEAR 60 WEST. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO KANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TODAY.
Until then, dry conditions will continue through at least early to mid afternoon as clouds begin to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. This will force an arctic cold front through the region this afternoon and evening. A short-lived band of light snow is expected to follow the cold frontal passage late this afternoon into this evening.
This will continue in advance of a cold front that was already in the process of moving south across northern Missouri. Temperatures behind the cold front are rather chilly and temperatures are expected to fall through the day in the wake of the front. The cold front was making headway this morning having already made it to the I-70 corridor. The snow will come to an end for most of the region by midnight and will be replaced with an area of cold Canadian air, with overnight lows falling into the lower teens to upper single digits.
CURRENT SFC OBS HAVE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVR SERN WY. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE STATE. WITH MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND OVR SRN CA.
336 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS PICK UP ON THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THAT AND GIVE AN INCREASE TO OUR CLOUD COVER. CURRENT VALUES HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
416 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST. AS IT WILL RELY ON THE SPEED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
LARGE OMEGA STRUCTURE INDICATED TO PASS THROUGH THE LOWER PARISHES AROUND 18Z TODAY PER GFS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTION.
358 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
358 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED EARLY TODAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LESSER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SOONER IN THE NIGHT.
Southwest winds of 6 to 12 knots will become north at 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, during the late afternoon and evening hours as a cold front moves through. /ISSUED 1004 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ The upper-level cyclone that has been spinning over northern Mexico for the last 3-4 days is finally moving off the the east this evening. Minor adjustments were also made to the hourly wind grids during the passage of the cold front late Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach KABI late Wednesday afternoon. /ISSUED 345 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper low currently just south of the Big Bend will weaken and lift northeast across south Texas tonight. Temperatures will warm into mid and upper 60s on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
355 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAPE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
420 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
314 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THAT WAS RETURNING TO THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL HINDER THE WARMUP SLIGHTLY TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS KANSAS. THERE WILL BE A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF FORT WORTH WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING AS THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE CONTINUES.
1004 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 The upper-level cyclone that has been spinning over northern Mexico for the last 3-4 days is finally moving off the the east this evening. Minor adjustments were also made to the hourly wind grids during the passage of the cold front late Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach KABI late Wednesday afternoon. /ISSUED 345 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper low currently just south of the Big Bend will weaken and lift northeast across south Texas tonight. Temperatures will warm into mid and upper 60s on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
1241 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1046 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 14Z AND 17Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 16Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WELL MOISTENED TNITE AS A FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROF PASSAGE.
910 PM PST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO 5H RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST BROUGHT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT THE COAST AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ADJACENT THE WEST COAST MOVES EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS DO NOT REALLY KICK IN THE HIGHER QPF VALUES UNTIL THE 06 TO 09Z TIME FRAME. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOWEST PART OF THE COLUMN WILL BE STILL ABOVE ZERO SO THINK THAT THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVERDONE. SO WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMES DOWN LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY FREEZING PRECIP OUT BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AS FURTHER MODEL RUNS TRICKLE IN. UPPER LOW FORECASTED BY ALL MODELS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVELS.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW NIGHT WELL WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
HAVE MADE SOME COOLER ADJUSTMENTS TO FRIDAY'S TEMPS AS THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. SO COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL.
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE ATLC RIDGE MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE LWR MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
A backdoor cold front will continue to edge westward across the region overnight, with a few terminals having some higher gusts.
A cold front will come through the area this evening with winds becoming elevated out of the east. /ISSUED 144 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015/ An upper trough moving across the Central Plains today will pass well to the north of the region.
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND A STEADY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH.
943 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 9 PM CDT SURFACE MAP SHOWED A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST AR. /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH REMAINING BREEZY AND COOLER AS COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS.
945 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
What began as a warm morning across the eastern half of the area has quickly cooled down into the 40s and 50s as a cold front moves through the Plains.
1110 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING APPROACHING NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE STORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE LOST THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
40 AT 04Z THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A LINE FROM KTRL TO KTPL. LATEST HRRR IS MATCHING UP WELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SPRINGFIELD MO TO PARIS TO SAN ANGELO. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO WACO TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF LAREDO. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE HGX CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS MOVING MORE SLUGGISHLY.
815 PM MDT THU APR 9 2015 MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT WAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRI STATE REGION EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
940 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
925 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 Much less activity across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this evening than 24 hours ago, w/sfc analysis showing the dryline extending from the Big Bend area NE across Texas and thru the Metroplex, courtesy of today's cold front. /ISSUED 144 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015/ An upper trough moving across the Central Plains today will pass well to the north of the region.
00Z SOUNDING NOTES THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE KEPT THE SEABREEZE FROM GENERATING ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND INCREASES OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT.
A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE IS IN PLACE THE THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THERE ARE MAKING DOWNSLOPING DRYING FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MODERATE TO WEAK WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW.
953 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS ONGOING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
752 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN INTO OUR AREA.
712 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri. Once the front passes, windy and cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east clearing trend by dawn. Low level thermal ridge and moisture axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front. Shear with strong upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
BUT COULD SUPPORT SOME WEAK MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
1006 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED ON A GRAVITY WAVE THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY DRAPED RIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS. AN SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIES NORTH OF I-30 BACK INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A HANDFUL OF OUR COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM AS WELL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AND MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT BY THAT TIME. THE WPC QPF HAS AN INCH OR ISOLATED TWO INCH AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST PUSH IN WITH THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT.
910 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A LULL IN CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN INTO OUR AREA.
640 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WYOMING AND BUILDING WEST. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG THE SHOWERS.
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH FEATURE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO AL/GA. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL AGAIN PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WERE IN PLACE WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE OF CLOSED LOW THAT WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
646 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 The cold front that began moving across the Ozarks early this afternoon had made its way across most of the Ozarks through early this evening. Behind the front, generally mostly clear skies and gusty northwesterly winds will continue through sunset as a cooler air mass move into the region. The upper trough and associated cold front will swing to the east of the area tonight.
644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI. CAPE VALUES AND LIFTED INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL STILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR ORGANIZATION OF A LINEAR SQUALL LINE RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER SHOULD VANISH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND SFC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT AIRMASS WILL BE REPLACED BY A COOLER DRIER ONE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN FOR FRI AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE HEARTLAND.
WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED EVERYWHERE TODAY DUE TO THE LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN TONIGHT BUT A DEEP FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT GROWING REGIONS AGAIN.
939 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 A BKN BAND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACRS NRN LA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING APPROACHING NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
We may see a few gusts to around 15 knots at KJCT and KSOA tonight behind a cold front that has moved through the area. /ISSUED 722 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions prevail across the area with a cold front moving south through the area. At 3 PM, a cold front stretched from southern Brown County (Brookesmith area) to Ozona. For tomorrow, the aforementioned front will head back north as a warm front, with southeasterly surface winds developing in it's wake. An upper low approaching Baja California will allow southwest winds aloft to prevail through the period. PED (Friday Night through Thursday) By Friday night an upper low will be situated west of the northern Baja Peninsula with the upper flow aloft backing more to the southwest over the forecast area in response.
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING MVFR/IFR DECK AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFTING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH TOMORROW. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.