Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MILD NIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE LONG ANTICIPATED FIRST EL NINO INFLUENCED RAIN IS NEARLY HERE AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE CURRENT SET UP SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST WITH TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE DEEPER BUT WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER THAT IS AN OPEN WAVE OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BUT IS STARTING BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON THE NOSE OF A 140+ KT UPPER JET.
BY LATE MORNING, A DRY COLD FRONT WAS NEARING OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER AND SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MAY JUST SWING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL INTO OUR MID STATE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF VFR STRATUS CEILINGS BNA TO MVFR CEILINGS CSV.
1146 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MID WEEK. BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK. STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT WORKS IT WAS INTO THE AREA TODAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS TODAY.
temps today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. This will usher some slightly cooler air into the region Today.
307 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 THE NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST THROUGH THE TONIGHT. THE RAP13/NAM12/GFS20 CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WILL FILL BACK IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MIDDLE TEENS IN NW WISCONSIN. THE NAM12/GFS20 SOUNDINGS INDICATE A THIN SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
Upper level ridging will develop over the high plains through early Monday.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING UNDER A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER MONTANA.
HOWEVER, COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS IN THE EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE SURFACE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH OFF TO OUR NORTH MOVES QUICKLY EAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE-WED.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS FROM W TO NRLY.
318 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MID WEEK. BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK. STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT WORKS IT WAS INTO THE AREA TODAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS TODAY.
BY LATE MORNING, A DRY COLD FRONT WAS NEARING OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER AND SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z, WITH CLOUDS RESTRICTED TO THE HIGH CI VARIETY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT CIGS AT BNA AND CKV AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF VFR, BUT CIGS COULD CERTAINLY END UP BEING LOWER (ESPECIALLY BTWN 07Z AND 14Z).
Locations near the Continental Divide may have one or two more nights cooling below zero, however daytime temperatures will begin to creep closer to freezing. Otherwise, low stratus, occasional snow flurries, and freezing fog will be common.
1042 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (BEHIND THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WET PACIFIC STORMS THIS WEEK).
332 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 (Tonight and Monday) Drier air will move south through the forecast area through tonight as upper level ridging builds into the area from the west.
A POORLY DEFINED AND SINUOUS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHEREAS THE MAINLAND FEATURES DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S. COMBINED WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.
332 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 Tonight and Monday Mid level ridging over the central CONUS continues to increase this afternoon as broad troughing occurs from the Midwest towards the Great Lakes region. Low stratus on the eastern edge of the high pressure over Iowa into northern Missouri has slowly sank southward through the day today. This result will also result in warmer lows tonight in the upper teens and lower 20s given the mostly cloudy skies. Clearing is likely for most of the area by late afternoon as better dry advection and mixing from the southeast will help temps reach the low and middle 30s.
438 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRIVING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
907 AM MST SUN JAN 3 2016 RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS ABOUT OVER BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL CATCHING UP. WENT A LITTLE COOLER ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THERE IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
121 PM MST SUN JAN 3 2016 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH ANY CIRRUS NOT MOVING PAST THE RIDGE AXIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY AND WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 50S TODAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR BACKS INTO THE AREA. ESPECIALLY AS LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE KS-CO BORDER AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
923 AM MST SUN JAN 3 2016 RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATING SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT FINALLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. WARMER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM BOISE TO ONTARIO STILL HAS NOT SEEN THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARMING.
239 PM MST SUN JAN 3 2016 AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH FAIRLY STAGNANT CONDITIONS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN 700MB WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (BEHIND THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WET PACIFIC STORMS THIS WEEK).
ALOFT: MOVEMENT IS VERY SLOW IN THIS HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SOMEWHAT BLOCKED/SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA. 12Z UPR AIR DATA AND WV IMAGERY INDICATED A RIDGE OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES WITH A TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE E AND OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS E. THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES SE INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE MUCH.
109 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT DRAWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW CENTER TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY.
1259 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS TO START OFF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 320 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2015/ WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAN BE SPOTTED ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FLOW TRAJECTORY COUPLED WITH WESTWARD MOVING RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN DRYING AND SYNOPTICALLY WARM.
DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE BUT DROP IT TO THE LOW END WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY EXPECT THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
LARGE MID/UPR RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACRS THE REGION AND WHAT FEW SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED TODAY ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FOR THE EVENING. NO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT OR TMRW AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BREAK IN THE RIDGE LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL.
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS THUS MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED A BIT LAST 24 HOURS WITH MID STATE NOW IN A LITTLE MORE JUICIER AIR.
718 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WITH LIMITED SHEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE BUT HIGHER CAPE VALUES DO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER PULSE THUNDERSTORMS.
1140 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. DISSIPATING AS IS MOVES TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S THIS EVENING. 18Z/1PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT.
LARGE MID/UPR RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACRS THE REGION AND WHAT FEW SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED TODAY ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FOR THE EVENING. NO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT OR TMRW AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
1021 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH ALSO HELPED TO BREAK UP AND LIFT THE LOWER STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY TO NORTHERN MAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THU.
1017 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
1231 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVENTING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO FROM VENTURING NORTHWARD.
808 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 402 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/ THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK NORTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH THE HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
647 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 18Z/1PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF NERN NEVADA INTO SERN IDAHO WHILE THE MAIN LARGER TROUGH ALONG THE NW COAST WAS MOVING INLAND.
746 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRYING TO ROUND AND UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAVE LED TO SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. A WEAK WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LAKE BREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINES (LOWER 70S). THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MAXIMIZED ACROSS EASTERN NC EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASES SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT DAYTIME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITHIN THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AFTER MID-NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. UPPER TROF AXIS ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CAP CONVECTION.
954 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
736 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
744 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
857 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. DISSIPATING AS IS MOVES TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S THIS EVENING. 18Z/1PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT.
AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE DAKOTAS AND THE GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AREA. THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY PERIODS ARE DRY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS STARTS A PUSH OF WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
726 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
/ISSUED 312 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/ STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS. VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS RIDGING INFLUENCE STRENGTHENS.
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/ WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS EVIDENCE OF UPPER RIDGING INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AND MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY.
912 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1208 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WINDS.
1159 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
What is somewhat concerning is the high moisture content of the atmosphere. This along with high freezing levels will result in very efficient rainfall rates.
1051 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FURTHERMORE A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AT 700MB JUST UNDERNEATH THE CREST OF THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD LOCATION FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE PERSISTING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL INCREASE OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN OUR FAR EAST. TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY AND VERY HOT PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. ANY CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
715 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MODELS AGREE WITH MOVING CURRENT JET STREAK OVER KS/MO INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 84 71 90 / 50 80 40 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 82 69 86 / 30 90 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 83 69 87 / 50 90 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 83 64 84 / 20 70 20 20.
THINKING THE NORTHEAST MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
730 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. ALLOWING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABNORMALLY DRY AND COOLER AIR FOR MID SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING TO JUST BELOW 60 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST IS HELPING TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH WARMER THU THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.
916 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY MORNING.
537 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS AIDING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING IN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN 00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTHEAST.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT.
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS WERE IN GENEARL AGREEMENT THAT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKING INTO QUEBEC TUE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THU. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE THE COLD FRONT WITH ENSEMBLES AND MODELS CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 4C-6C RANGE. CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE AREA BY WED-THU WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY AND TONIGHT JET MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN SW PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY IN SUPPORT OF THE COMPACT CIRCULATION POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT PRESS TIME. COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH IN THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. PERHAPS LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. GUYER UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND PINE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS TO TREK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. PINE RIDGE. AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED WEST PER LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND AMID THE DEEP CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF THE DEEP LATER RIDGE TO THE WEST. WHICH ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AMID THIS UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS.
00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED UPPER HIGH OVER W TEXAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF CA COAST.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE E- W HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS KY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AND TEMPS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED AND STAYS OFF TO OUR WEST.