Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
448 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 As a cold front continues to push east through the region, scattered showers over northern Wisconsin will slowly move off to the east this morning as an area of high pressure moves in from the west. An 850 mb low level jet is bringing ample moisture into the Upper Midwest ahead of a weak cold front moving east through Wisconsin. Fog will dissipate after sunrise when the lower boundary layer begins to mix. The cold front looks to stall across northern WI during the day with rain over north-central WI through the overnight hours. With the added moisture to the soil and strong high pressure, patchy fog is again possible overnight Wednesday. A strong area of high pressure moves into the region on Thursday with dry conditions lasting through the weekend.
MLCAPE is around 500 j/kg, thus should see an increase in convection over the higher terrain, which will spread across portions of the plains late this aftn and evening.
Dry upper northwest flow will generally prevail ahead of an advancing large upper level ridge. This ridge will amplify and translate across the Northern High Plains Region by the upcoming weekend, when temperatures may turn from warm to hot. The next forecast challenge will be determining when the ridge axis begins to push downstream of the CWA.
Strong ridging just offshore of the east coast, will continue to slow the eastward progression of a closed low centered over the southern plains and its attendant broad trough which reside over the forecast area. This troughing over the region, in addition to daytime heating as highs climb into the 80s, will continue to yield a good coverage of showers and storms across the forecast area this morning through at least this evening.
A very strong high pressure system will dominate the weather this week with well above normal temperatures continuing for northern Arizona.
the forecast area will be in between a low pressure system near the Oklahoma/Missouri border and an approaching cold front and weak upper trough approaching from the west northwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s with low temperatures in the low 50s.
327 AM PDT Wed May 27 2020 High pressure aloft will continue well above average high temperatures for inland areas through Thursday with today and Thursday the hottest days for the deserts. The marine layer and weak onshore flow will keep coastal areas cooler with ares of night and morning low clouds and locally dense fog.
The cold front is currently bifurcating ND and will continue to slowly sag southeastward today. This upper level trough will deepen today and tonight supporting a cold front pushing through the state. Cold air advection will also result in slightly cooler temps today along with dryer air. For tonight, expect a clearing trend and decreasing winds as cold front continues to move southeast. Upper low centered over Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Wednesday fills and moves to the Hudson bay area by lateweek, while western CONUS ridge amplifies. Ridge axis extends across the Northern Plains by 00Z Mon.
This puts central Florida on the ascending side of the trough as prevailing southwest flow continues to advect deep moisture into the area. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will develop this afternoon, with the highest coverage along the coast. Highs this afternoon should reach the low 90s across east central Florida. A mostly dry and warm night ahead as overnight lows slightly above normal in the low 70s.
/issued 235 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ An upper level low pressure system remains over the Southern Plains this morning. The upper low will slowly move eastward over the next 48 hours and will be located over the Mid-South by Thursday morning. A lull may then occur for a couple of hours before convection begins developing as daytime heating interacts with the upper level low pressure system. The upper low is forecast to open up as an upper trof by Thursday evening.
Ridge/High pressure peaks Wed-Thu before storm chances increase.
12Z TBW sounding considerably more unstable today influenced by the higher theta-e air in the boundary layer advecting off the Gulf combined with a pocket of cold air aloft moving over the region which has produced a deeper/thicker layer of CAPE.
Most of the moisture available for this system will be over the southern zones and the higher terrain, so that is where the higher PoPs will be focused. Low level winds will be east to northeast today and this will provide a cooler day.
At the surface, high pressure across the Coastal Bend of Texas will drift eastward over the western Gulf by mid-morning, shifting winds back out of the southeast. With abundant sunshine and WAA, afternoon temperatures are expected to be about 10-15 degrees warmer today than yesterday afternoon -- low-mid 90s at most inland locations. This should keep temperatures on the warm side, with lows averaging in the low-mid 70s. The aforementioned mid-level low will finally lift northeastward late Thursday morning as strong ridging occurs over the Desert Southwest. Increased cloud cover should keep temperatures slightly cooler tomorrow compared today, with high temperatures still reaching the low-mid 90s.
426 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 (Today and Tonight) An upper level low over the Arklatex will be the main weather maker this afternoon and evening. A strong upper level disturbance will move southeast on the backside of the low across West Central Texas.
the upper ridge over the west coast builds today with a thermal trough deepening along the coast at the surface. Models are now indicating ridge top winds becoming southerly by late this afternoon, starting to feed moisture into the region earlier than was indicated yesterday at this time. The BL to 700 MB flow increases tonight with the upper level ridge beginning to shift east as a closed upper low begins to move up towards the central California coast Thursday, continuing to feed moisture into the region. As the upper low continues to move north along the California coast, moisture continues to feed into the region, further increasing instability with capes possibly in excess of 2000 J/kg.
624 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 High pressure over the region this morning is presenting with mostly clear skies. Tonight, low pressure over western SD will push some light showers into the forecast area, mainly over central SD. Heights do lower a bit on Thursday, so slightly cooler temperatures are forecast under northwest flow. The period begins with the CWA under northwest flow aloft, while a large upper-ridge is positioned across the western US.
747 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Quiet, dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain chances return early tomorrow morning as a low pressure systems tracks north. High pressure will maintain dry, warm conditions today. Tonight, a fast moving low pressure system currently off the coast of South Carolina will track east of the Appalachians and become an open wave as it enters the Upper Ohio Valley. An advancing trough over the Great Plains will help maintain quick northern progression of the disturbance through our region. Heaviest rainfall amounts will likely occur on the east side of the ridges due to sufficient up-sloping; 850mb winds will near 40kts from the southeast. In the wake of the exiting low pressure system, isolated, diurnally- driven showers/storms may develop in eastern Ohio tomorrow evening.
/issued 426 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low over the Arklatex will be the main weather maker this afternoon and evening. A strong upper level disturbance will move southeast on the backside of the low across West Central Texas.
413 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 High pressure over the region this morning is presenting with mostly clear skies. Tonight, low pressure over western SD will push some light showers into the forecast area, mainly over central SD. Heights do lower a bit on Thursday, so slightly cooler temperatures are forecast under northwest flow. The period begins with the CWA under northwest flow aloft, while a large upper-ridge is positioned across the western US.
703 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 As a cold front continues to push east through the region, scattered showers over northern Wisconsin will slowly move off to the east this morning as an area of high pressure moves in from the west. An 850 mb low level jet is bringing ample moisture into the Upper Midwest ahead of a weak cold front moving east through Wisconsin. Fog will dissipate after sunrise when the lower boundary layer begins to mix. The cold front looks to stall across northern WI during the day with rain over north-central WI through the overnight hours. With the added moisture to the soil and strong high pressure, patchy fog is again possible overnight Wednesday. A strong area of high pressure moves into the region on Thursday with dry conditions lasting through the weekend.
639 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 (Today and tonight) As the upper level cyclone continues to slowly exit the region to the east, precipitation chances shift east as well. While upper air support persists with the broad upper level cyclone, any convection and precipitation continues to be stifled by both the thermodynamics and shear, with seasonably cool surface temperatures due to cloud cover, unfavorable mid level lapse rates, as well as very weak vertical wind shear profiles. The highest chance of precipitation is generally in southeastern Oklahoma where the greater instability is anticipated. The upper level forcing may be enough to cause some showers to develop on the back end of the upper level cyclone as it moves further east, however coverage will be limited by the poor environment.
Temps tomorrow will be a bit cooler than today per the poor mixing, despite the rising heights.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along areas N of I-10 with the highest probabilities of them developing over the NW quadrant of the CWA.
315 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The nearly vertically stacked closed low poised along the Oklahoma and Arkansas border is entraining some drier air around the southeast quadrant of the low at this time. Once the upper low center begins to move and settle into southeast Missouri Thursday afternoon, will see increasing lift generally along and east of the Mississippi river after midnight tonight and through the midday on Thursday. Some enhanced lift will likely occur Thursday afternoon and evening, as the upper low begins to shear out and lift northeast across the area.
328 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Showers and thunderstorms through this evening - Showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night - Fair and much cooler weather this weekend - Showers and thunderstorms through this evening - An upper level disturbance approaching our area from far northwest OH will combine with the lake breeze to cause continued convective development through this evening. - Showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night - An approaching cold front will combine with an upper level system moving in from the southwest to bring more convection Thursday. - Fair and much cooler weather this weekend - A high pressure ridge will build in behind the cold front and bring fair wx with much cooler temps for the weekend.
Upper ridge and dry westerly flow aloft today. Ridge axis moves east on Thu as upper low starts to approach the California coast. Ridge/High pressure peaks Wed-Thu before storm chances increase SHORT TERM.
High pressure over the region this morning is presenting with mostly clear skies. Tonight, low pressure over western SD will push some light showers into the forecast area, mainly over central SD. Heights do lower a bit on Thursday, so slightly cooler temperatures are forecast under northwest flow. The period begins with the CWA under northwest flow aloft, while a large upper-ridge is positioned across the western US.
245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Omega block persists over the western Atlantic with the western anchor being a strong cutoff U/L low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The U/L pattern will briefly transition into a rex block late in the week before finally breaking down over the weekend as a northern stream disturbance out of Canada digs over the Great Lakes with a L/W trough becoming established over the eastern U. with a a high amplitude pattern developing across the CONUS with a deep trough over the west and strong ridging through the plains. At the surface, southwest boundary layer currently across the Florida peninsula will give way as high pressure centered near Bermuda builds across the Florida peninsula Thursday and Thursday night with the ridge axis becoming established across north central Florida.
326 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 A large upper low remains centered southeast of the forecast area, leading to periodic cloud cover as pieces of energy rotate around it. Tonight, a cold front will push through the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb low/trough across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas extending into east Texas tonight will continue to provide northwest flow aloft across southwest Texas but convection is progged to develop well north of the CWA this evening and move slowly southward before weakening late tonight.
Current trends and short-term model guidance continue to indicate rapid drying and mixing of the boundary layer behind the cold front. The cold front is currently bifurcating ND and will continue to slowly sag southeastward today. This upper level trough will deepen today and tonight supporting a cold front pushing through the state. Cold air advection will also result in slightly cooler temps today along with dryer air. For tonight, expect a clearing trend and decreasing winds as cold front continues to move southeast. Upper low centered over Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Wednesday fills and moves to the Hudson bay area by lateweek, while western CONUS ridge amplifies. Ridge axis extends across the Northern Plains by 00Z Mon.
1256 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 As a cold front continues to push east through the region, scattered showers over northern Wisconsin will slowly move off to the east this morning as an area of high pressure moves in from the west. An 850 mb low level jet is bringing ample moisture into the Upper Midwest ahead of a weak cold front moving east through Wisconsin. Fog will dissipate after sunrise when the lower boundary layer begins to mix. The cold front looks to stall across northern WI during the day with rain over north-central WI through the overnight hours. With the added moisture to the soil and strong high pressure, patchy fog is again possible overnight Wednesday. A strong area of high pressure moves into the region on Thursday with dry conditions lasting through the weekend.
Water vapor imagery currently shows a closed low centered over the Ark-La-Tex region, that is pulling plenty of moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. , ridging is beginning to build and will be moving eastward later in the forecast period. The continued advection of moisture from the southeast by the closed low will keep light rain chances in the forecast tomorrow as well, with overall chances for storm activity being low. Fortunately, this repetitive pattern is set to depart with the closed low releasing its grip on the central U. A cold front and the approaching ridge to the west are expected to clean us out of our chicanes for rain Thursday afternoon and into the evening, and setting up some quieter weather.
Tonight-Thursday: Cold front passes over the region tonight and synoptic forcing tends to split south of our CWA. Expect dry conditions Thursday, with highs a bit cooler (upper 60s/lower 70s). A cool and dry Fri will be followed by the settling in of high pressure over the forecast area on Sat. Dewpoints are likely to fall into the low 30s over part of NW MN early morning. The notion of a developing upper ridge over the Northern Plains Mon and Tue will be reflected in surface atmospheric temps rising into the 80s. On Tue we might look for ridge rider thunder as a weak short wave pokes through the ridge. By Wed, signs of the ridge moving to the east should allow for a moister SW flow and an increasing chance for stronger thunder.
This means, that the highlighted area has a 5-10 percent chance of rainfall exceeding the flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. Highs will be slightly cooler than today, reaching the mid to upper 80s.
GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cutoff upper level low just southwest of Fort Smith Arkansas. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 80s across most locations.
Temperatures are trending a few degrees cooler than expected and cloud cover will likely stick around for much of the afternoon, so went ahead and lowered the forecast highs by a couple of degrees this afternoon. A band of deeper moisture is coming through the mid state ahead of a deep upper low that is currently centered near the Arklatex.
CJC An upper level low pressure system remains over the Southern Plains this morning. The upper low will slowly move eastward over the next 48 hours and will be located over the Mid-South by Thursday morning. A lull may then occur for a couple of hours before convection begins developing as daytime heating interacts with the upper level low pressure system. The upper low is forecast to open up as an upper trof by Thursday evening.
Very strong high pressure will dominate the weather this week with well above normal temperatures continuing for northern Arizona.
Convection is associated with a trough extending from the upper low in the Arklatex region.
1233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Water vapor imagery currently shows upper low centered over far northeast TX with a vort lobe stretching from eastern OK into LA. Upper low will start to move east tonight into Thu which will allow the better rainfall chances to also migrate east. Below normal temps will remain in place today with readings topping out in the low to mid 70s. Upper impulse will be situated over the Tennessee Valley by Fri afternoon with upper ridging building over the Desert Southwest. Upper ridging will slowly build east through the weekend providing dry conditions and warming temps. Upper level low continues to spin over eastern OK at this time. Moisture wrapping around the low will lead to increasing diurnally driven cumulus clouds with cigs around 3500 ft agl.
An area of low pressure continues to push in from the west. Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 82 65 82 64 / 50 70 50 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 82 65 82 64 / 30 60 30 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 65 82 64 82 63 / 40 60 30 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 83 62 81 61 / 20 50 30 70 60.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand this afternoon around the slow moving upper low with some disruptions possible at KTUL by mid-afternoon. /Issued 1050 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ Closed upper low continues to sit and spin across southeast Oklahoma, with showers and a few thunderstorms wrapping around the low.
314 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Lobes of energy rotating westward from a a stalled upper low spinning over the Ozarks will support continued showers through Thursday early evening, especially across southeast Kansas.
Anomalous upper level setup over the south- central US with upper low currently settled over the Arklatex. Low will continue to slowly press eastward with building ridging over the western US over the next few days, eventually parking over the central US by the weekend.
The marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler as low clouds and fog develop each night and morning.
1203 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 (Today and tonight) As the upper level cyclone continues to slowly exit the region to the east, precipitation chances shift east as well. While upper air support persists with the broad upper level cyclone, any convection and precipitation continues to be stifled by both the thermodynamics and shear, with seasonably cool surface temperatures due to cloud cover, unfavorable mid level lapse rates, as well as very weak vertical wind shear profiles. The highest chance of precipitation is generally in southeastern Oklahoma where the greater instability is anticipated. The upper level forcing may be enough to cause some showers to develop on the back end of the upper level cyclone as it moves further east, however coverage will be limited by the poor environment.
329 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms, will remain possible this evening as a low pressure area slowly moves closer to the area.
1050 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Closed upper low continues to sit and spin across southeast Oklahoma, with showers and a few thunderstorms wrapping around the low.
We'll finally see things get pushed out late tonight and Thursday and the northern stream upper trough evident in water vapor over the Canadian prairies drops southeast into the upper Midwest.
Temperatures are trending a few degrees cooler than expected and cloud cover will likely stick around for much of the afternoon, so went ahead and lowered the forecast highs by a couple of degrees this afternoon.
(This evening through Thursday) Upper low will continue to meander around the region but with a continued drift east. The low is expected to begin to open up later in the day Thursday and move east. In the meantime, showers and some storms will be possible across mainly eastern portions of the fa on the backside of the low, tonight into Thursday.
313 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The main concern in the short term is with precipitation chances this evening through the overnight as a cold front moves into the northern CWA. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with the frontal passage, the coolest temperatures will be across the NW Sandhills where highs will be in the low 70s, elsewhere highs will reach the mid 70s.
An upper level low pressure system remains over the Southern Plains this morning. The upper low will slowly move eastward over the next 48 hours and will be located over the Mid-South by Thursday morning. A lull may then occur for a couple of hours before convection begins developing as daytime heating interacts with the upper level low pressure system. The upper low is forecast to open up as an upper trof by Thursday evening.
350 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Upper low currently along the Oklahoma-Arkansas border with several lobes rotating around the center. Upper low spins in place for about another 18 hours before a northern stream trough picks it up and lifts it northeast. Another lobe rotates around the low early in the day Thursday, but forecast soundings show even drier soundings tomorrow than today, with precipitable water values around 1.
An upper trough will dip down into the Northern Plains after midnight, with a weak band of mid- lvl frontogenesis moving southeast through the Dakotas. Temperatures will cool slightly over today, with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s.
151 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 For tonight, expect a clearing trend and decreasing winds as the cold front continues to move southeast. Tomorrow will also be cooler as cold air advection continues through the day. A western CONUS ridge amplifies late this week.
236 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Aviation/Hydro - Thunderstorms possible today, more precipitation Thursday - Hot and humid today, cooler over the weekend -- Thunderstorms possible today, more precipitation Thursday -- Radar shows a cluster of showers/storms moving north across northern Indiana. An even higher chance of rain exists Thursday as showers/storms develop along/ahead of a cold front. -- Hot and humid today, cooler over the weekend -- High temperatures today will reach the mid 80s, a tad cooler than yesterday, mainly due to increased cloud cover during the afternoon.
Upper low near the ArkLaTex remains nearly stationary, and this will be the impetus for more showers and storms again late this aftn and into the evening as another lobe of vort energy rounds the west and southwest side of the system. Upper low centered over the ArkLaTex will remain nearly stationary through the day with most of the showers and thunderstorms expected underneath and to the east of the feature today. A vort lobe rounding the upper low this afternoon and evening is forecast to spark showers and thunderstorms across South Central Texas late in the day and move into portions of the area this evening.