Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1030 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Swath of clouds and even some showers are noted off the SW LA coast in the vicinity of a warm front that will gradually lift north overnight. Updated hourly temperatures and dewpoints to reflect obs, which are a degree or two warmer than expected. Otherwise, showers over the nearshore waters should diminish before moving onshore, but expect increasing rain chcs during the day Tuesday as the warm front moves inland. /issued 446 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ High pressure centered over the southeastern part of the country near Tennessee and North Carolina will continue to move eastward. A warm front will be approaching the area tonight from the south. The increased cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer.
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance Turning much cooler the next couple days, then temperatures warming back to above normal levels by the weekend. Then the progression will slow and amplitude will wane, leaving a broad upper ridge across across most of the CONUS. Temperatures will be cooler today, but still above normal.
A trough across the upper Plains this morning will dig south and east during the day. IR satellite shows some cloud cover associated with a slow moving warm front along the Gulf coast. Clear skies this morning will slowly fill in with cloud cover by this afternoon ahead of aformentioned warm front. By tonight, the warm front will have lifted north of the CWA, but more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front to our west. 5" rainfall with the highest amounts north of the TN River. The cold front pushes through the area from west to east Wednesday afternoon exiting northeast Alabama by sunset. Temperatures Wednesday night will quickly fall into the lower 30s bringing the potential for frost for most locations in our forecast area.
317 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front will move across Illinois this afternoon, bringing scattered rain, mainly east of the Illinois River Valley.
255 AM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Upper trough axis extended from a low north of Minnesota southwest across the central Rockies and into southern California.
209 AM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Upper low moves to the east this morning.
Upper ridge builds in Tue and Wed with mainly clear skies. Broad upper-level trough that brought damaging winds and mountain snow will continue to move out of the region today.
Clear and calm conditions persist as high pressure remains overhead this evening.
Winds will be southerly as warm air advects into Ohio Valley ahead of an approaching cold front that will be located from WI down into MO tomorrow morning. Afternoon highs ahead of the cold front will warm into the low/mid 70s. A large upper level trough will be in place over the central US and Canada Tue night, with the 500 mb trough extending south over the Upper Midwest and Plains. Moisture transport is briefly quite strong Tue evening into early Wed ahead of the cold front. Plenty of post-frontal moisture lingers as the upper trough begins to swing in from the west. The upper trough rotates southeast over the area Wed night and CAA continues.
Current observations show the cold front continuing to move south through the Panhandles during the morning hours. The cold front should move south of all of the Panhandles as we go past sunrise this morning. Northerly winds of 15-25 MPH with higher gusts at times will linger behind the cold front throughout the day today. Temperatures will be much cooler today compared to yesterday with highs ranging from the lower 50s in the NW to lower 60s in the SE. A shallow, but progressive positive tilted trough across the central Rockies will eventually move southeast through the northern Panhandles late tonight. With the colder airmass remaining in place being the cold front, low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s in the NW to mid 30s in the SE.
SHRA/VCSH are expected at all terminals by midday with TSRA possible late along and ahead of a cold front, mainly over Cntrl and Srn terminals. Tonight Through Wednesday An upper ridge is over the eastern U. this afternoon with an upper low over the west. As the ridge moves off to the east Tuesday, the trough will deepen over the Rockies. The trough will move into the Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the upper trough axis will be along the Mississippi River Valley and an upper ridge will be building in the west. A cold front in the west will move through the Rockies tonight and into the Plains by morning. Ahead of the cold front showers and mainly isolated thunderstorms will develop.
347 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Isolated showers have developed early this morning across the nearshore waters in the vicinity of a warm front with some of this activity working across the coastal parishes and counties. Latest hi res guidance keeps these showers isolated through mid morning becoming more widespread from late morning through the afternoon as the warm front lifts north out of the gulf and pushes inland. There's good model consistency in most of the precipitation lifting north into north Louisiana by late this evening providing a lull in precipitation ahead of a significant cold front that will push through the region tomorrow.
243 AM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Dynamic trough was sliding out of the forecast area with rising heights replacing it. Models catch on to this and put the most likely location for snow showers today in the higher terrain.
1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) The base of a mid-level trough is expected to be situated along the Rocky Mountains by Tuesday afternoon. In response to this upper- level feature, a cold front will move through the area starting in the morning in far NW OK, making its way down to SE OK by the afternoon. Ahead of this cold front in SE OK, surface dewpoints should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with some elevated instability. Gusty northerly winds are likely behind the front, bringing with it cooler temperatures across the area.
As for highs today, a northwest flow and a much colder air mass that continues to infiltrate southward from Canada behind the cold front, will keep high temperatures cool for this afternoon.
The evolution of the positively tilting trof aligns parallel flow from near surface and above, so despite quick movement, training along the front could produce locally heavy downpours, esp where grounds are not fully recovered from the similar/same such area last go around. And a northwest wind 10-20 mph and gusty will make it feel even cooler.
341 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 At 3am a strong cold front extended from the northwest tip of Missouri to northwest Oklahoma. The base of the upper trough and associated 125 knot 300 mb wind max will provide lift along the back edge of the moisture to support showers continuing in parts of northwest Arkansas into the late night hours tonight when temperatures are cooling. If the precipitation is a little heavier than currently expected, enough cooling could occur in the higher terrain to support a few snowflakes. Temperatures in parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas should fall to near or a few degrees below freezing.
Milder overnight conditions are ongoing compared to 24 hours ago by about 10 to 20 degrees as the low-level south-southeasterly flow has pushed gulf moisture, with low stratus, back into the region. In addition to the low stratus deck, patchy fog and/or drizzle will be possible into this morning. The biggest item to highlight in the short term forecast will be a strong cold front as a progressive upper level trough moves across the central Plains throughout tonight. However, like previous forecasts, have trended cooler going closer to a blend between the raw model guidance, short term guidance and the NBM 25th percentile.
Warmer and drier conditions develop Wednesday through the upcoming weekend with breezy to windy conditions at times. Winds have decreased to below High Wind criteria across Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties early this evening, so we have allowed the High Wind Warning for those counties to expire at 6 pm. Temperatures warm Wednesday through the upcoming Weekend as upper level ridging redevelops over the region.
326 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Last evening's cold front has brought a much cooler Canadian air mass into the region for today. With continued cold air advection, high temperatures only reach into the low to mid 40s, which is about 5 degrees below seasonal averages. The potent upper-level trough remains overhead as well, so scattered cloud cover is likely through at least the first half of the day as upper-level synoptic lift spreads cirrus across the Midwest.
A strong cold front will approach the Mountains Tuesday night, then move east across our region late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
348 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 An upper level trough will push down from the northwest today and create a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, although gradients won't be overly tight. A front will move down as the trough sweeps through, although it's expected to stall along the northern boundary between our CWA and Lubbock's thanks to diurnal heating this afternoon. As the sun sets and temperatures cool this evening, the cold front will make its appearance and push through the Permian Basin. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be about 20 degrees cooler than Tuesday, with highs in the 60s everywhere except the Rio Grande.
An upper trof advancing across the western states amplifies into a positively tilted 5-Wave scale trof through Tuesday spanning the northern/central Plains into the southwest states. The large upper trof becomes somewhat more amplified and takes on a more meridional orientation while continuing slowly eastward through Wednesday. Ahead of the approaching front and large upper trof, deep layer moisture increases significantly through Tuesday morning with precipitable water values reaching around 1. For Wednesday, likely to categorical for much of the area as the strong cold front moves into the area along with deep layer forcing associated with the approaching large upper trof. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, potentially reaching 1500 J/kg, on Wednesday ahead of the cold front. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday mostly range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
1233 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Breezy conditions will settle in through Tuesday across the region, with the strongest wind gusts coming late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Temperatures will be slightly below the seasonal normal with highs this afternoon ranging from the low 60s in northern GA to the low 70s across south central GA. Clear skies and sunny weather continue into tomorrow, but with stronger SE flow on the backside of high pressure, we begin to see a moisture return to the area. Vaughn On Wednesday, a cold front will push into the area propelled primarily by a high pressure system sliding into the Great Plains and Midwest. A low pressure system will attempt to organize off the coastal baroclinic zone to the east, but the additional surface forcing from any developing low may be too little to late for high level storm potential. After the frontal passage on Tuesday, high pressure will dominate the forecast regime in the Southeast.
123 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 As of 630pm the cold front is visible as a fine line on a 0. The high-resolution guidance continues to indicate the strongest winds will be present behind the front beginning within the next hour (between 00-01z). Meanwhile, to our northwest, a strong cold front has pushed through western South Dakota into northern Nebraska, producing north/northwesterly wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH along the way. Given the "ground truth" of high winds upstream, we went ahead and expanded the High Wind Warning by 1-2 counties. Temperatures will also be significantly cooler, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees most places.
230 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Mild and turning breezy today ahead of a strong cold front which will cross the region tonight bringing a period of showers.
A cold front is currently moving south through the Panhandles. Winds will shift to northerly behind the cold front at 15-20 kts sustained with gusts near 30 kts at times throughout the TAF period before weakening slightly to 10-15 kts more out of the northeast after 00Z Wednesday. Winds will then pick up to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots behind a cold front early Tuesday morning. Winds should start easing tomorrow night as high pressure filters in overhead. With the new colder air mass in place and the winds dying off, temps overnight into Wednesday morning will drop below freezing for most places. As high pressure spreads and shifts eastward, winds will turn southerly and bring WAA. This should keep most areas right around freezing for Wednesday night.
251 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Atmospheric moisture will increase by late today and showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the region. A strong canadian high pressure area will build over the region late week with below normal temperatures but dry conditions expected into the weekend. Strengthening southerly flow will lift a warm front northward into the forecast area late in the day. An upper level trough will move into the central US overnight. The associated cold front will move into portions of the Southeast. An approaching cold front will cross the region Wednesday night.
303 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Currently at the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is draped across the central Florida Peninsula, but is forecast to start to slowly lift north later this morning as a warm front.
High pressure will continue to slide to our east today. As it returns, the warm front will begin to lift northward. Right now that warm front is still off the Gulf Coast and will slowly work northward during the day. Meanwhile the cold front is currently back in Kansas and will be entering our forecast area in the northwest by daybreak on Wednesday.
Gusty northwest winds will continue today with much cooler temperatures than previous days. High pressure will begin to move toward the area this evening with lows forecast to drop into the lower 20s in our north to the upper 20s in our south. Wednesday and beyond: The mid-level trough responsible for sending much colder air into the central Plains will slide east of the region on Wednesday.
Quiet Weather the Remainder of the Period -- Windy Today -- Another windy day is expected today with strong southwest winds ahead of a cold front.
A long wave ridge remains offshore, and dry northwest flow aloft is in place over the Pacific Northwest. A warming trend will commence Tuesday as the offshore upper ridge edges toward the west coast. The ridge will move onshore Wednesday, and flow aloft will become southwesterly.
A strong cold front will sweep through Wednesday night, followed by dry and cool high pressure. High pressure centered off the New England coast will remain extended southwest across the area on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a series of upper disturbances will move through the local area, maintaining a weak coastal trough off the GA coast. At some point Tuesday night a warm front will lift north through the area, followed by strong warm air and moisture advection. An unseasonably warm and moist airmass will overspread the area on Wednesday as a cold front gradually approaches from the west. Surface dewpoints are forecast to rise into the mid 60s while ample sunshine combined with warm advection pushes temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Wednesday evening we expect the main convective band associated with the cold front.
This will spread very dry and warmer air westward toward the coast where temperatures will be well above normal.
400 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front extending from WI southwest through the TX Panhandle will move southeastward through our forecast area today and this evening as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches. Above normal temperatures will continue across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL today ahead of the cold front. Showers will develop this afternoon and evening along and just behind the cold front across east central and southeast Missouri and southwest IL as the front intercepts better low level moisture. Post frontal light rain may continue across southeast MO and southwest IL late tonight and Wednesday morning until the upper level trough shifts east of the region. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight and Wednesday due to strong low level cold air advection behind the cold front, and falling upper level heights.
Currently, temperatures in the island communities are in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the weather conditions across the Florida Keys through Wednesday night. Moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be the main driving factor in the shower activity, along with low-level convergence, resulting in mostly shallow, isolated convection.
307 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Clear skies overnight with morning low temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. The short term models are in excellent agreement that a longwave troughs will move through the central US.
Strong cold front with associated SHRA and possible TSRA) should be entering the CLL/UTS areas around 31/12Z and should work its way off the coast around or shortly after 31/18z.
An upper trough extending west to east from Western Montana to the Dakotas will progress to the east-southeast through the day. Cooler air will continue to filter into the region behind the cold front which moved through last night. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid-20s. Wednesday, northwest flow aloft sets up over the Central High Plains as the upper trough progresses eastward, out of the region and a ridge sets up over the western CONUS. High pressure will move in over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer, ranging from the upper 40s to mid-50s for highs.
Warm front currently down along the nrn Gulf Coast will lift nwd today, and settle invof the I-30 corridor by later this aftn. Shwrs and isold tstms will be possible as the warm front makes its nwd move today. Meanwhile, positively tilted upper trof axis will dig sewd, bringing a developing cold front into nwrn areas by this evening. More rigorous convection will be possible as the trof approaches and the front begins a sewd drive. Convection will begin to clear the region by Wednesday aftn, with a cooler and drier airmass settling swd. By Wednesday night, the cold front in the short-term will be fully pushed through the Four-States region.
An upper level ridge will slowly build over the region on Tuesday into Wednesday and a warming trend will ensue.
233 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 (Issued 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021) Today through Wednesday: Breezy southerly winds continue early this morning from strong pressure gradient and LLJ aloft ahead of the cold front expected to come through this morning. While moisture will be present in the low to mid levels it appears that there will a struggle to get enough forcing to bring any showers. This afternoon we should see temperatures rise into the upper 40s to low 50s in the far northwest where the front will pass in the early morning to the low to mid 60s in the far southeast where southerly winds will dominate in the morning before the front comes through in the late morning to early afternoon. Otherwise the region will see high pressure slowly build back into the region.
Overall though winds will not be quite as strong as we head beyond 12z so will let the high wind warning expire.
438 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Brisk sums up the weather for today, as much colder air filters into the region behind a strong cold front. Temperatures this afternoon look to range from the low 30s across central Minnesota to the low 40s from far-southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. Elevated fire weather conditions will also develop this afternoon as drier air continues to filter into the area behind the cold front, however, the mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures should prevent any widespread critical conditions. Winds finally begin to diminish overnight as the deep cyclone to our north pulls off towards Hudson bay and the pressure gradient slackens across the region.
Southerly flow will push a warm frontal boundary across the forecast area today with low clouds. /issued 347 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ Isolated showers have developed early this morning across the nearshore waters in the vicinity of a warm front with some of this activity working across the coastal parishes and counties. Latest hi res guidance keeps these showers isolated through mid morning becoming more widespread from late morning through the afternoon as the warm front lifts north out of the gulf and pushes inland. There's good model consistency in most of the precipitation lifting north into north Louisiana by late this evening providing a lull in precipitation ahead of a significant cold front that will push through the region tomorrow.
Today should also be cooler and cloudier than yesterday due to the change in air mass.
554 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front extending from WI southwest through the TX Panhandle will move southeastward through our forecast area today and this evening as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches. Above normal temperatures will continue across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL today ahead of the cold front. Showers will develop this afternoon and evening along and just behind the cold front across east central and southeast Missouri and southwest IL as the front intercepts better low level moisture. Post frontal light rain may continue across southeast MO and southwest IL late tonight and Wednesday morning until the upper level trough shifts east of the region. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight and Wednesday due to strong low level cold air advection behind the cold front, and falling upper level heights.
737 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Sunshine along with a southerly breeze will bring noticeably warmer conditions to central PA today.
615 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Last evening's cold front has brought a much cooler Canadian air mass into the region for today. With continued cold air advection, high temperatures only reach into the low to mid 40s, which is about 5 degrees below seasonal averages. The potent upper-level trough remains overhead as well, so scattered cloud cover is likely through at least the first half of the day as upper-level synoptic lift spreads cirrus across the Midwest.
Breezy offshore winds in the hills this morning will briefly mix down into some of the lower elevations from sunrise through mid-morning. Continued warming on Wednesday as high pressure builds.
655 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Mild and turning breezy today ahead of a strong cold front which will cross the region tonight bringing a period of showers.
Fire weather concerns will be the main focus today as upper level trof passing by to our north brings gusty winds to the area this afternoon.
406 AM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A strong cold front will exit the region tonight, but unseasonably cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region by midweek and remain in place heading into the upcoming weekend, resulting in a substantial warming trend.
Overall, an area of high pressure will be setting itself up across the area. This morning will be the coldest morning with lows below freezing. A warming trend will commence Today as the offshore upper ridge edges toward the west coast. The ridge will move onshore Wednesday, and flow aloft will become southwesterly.
The rest of the week will be dominated by strong high pressure and warming temperatures.
508 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Sunshine along with a southerly breeze will bring noticeably warmer conditions to central PA today.