Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level flow starts to shift to the southwest this afternoon as a closed low pressure system spins off the coast of northern California.
719 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Today will be drier and much cooler than yesterday with scattered to numerous showers expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont.
510 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 The longwave trough over the central CONUS shifts eastward today, allowing increased ridging over Wyoming.
319 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 The longwave trough over the central CONUS shifts eastward today, allowing increased ridging over Wyoming.
/issued 344 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021/ Currently at the surface, Atlantic high pressure is continuing to ridge across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, setting up southeasterly to southerly winds, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon seabreeze. Atlantic high pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will hold through midweek, with generally southeasterly to southwesterly flow, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will lift north during the second half of the week, with winds becoming more easterly.
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows moisture is working its way back into the region from the northwest overtop a ridge over the Southwest CONUS. Warmer air is also gradually being advected in, but you wouldn't know it if you were to step outside at the moment. Southerly flow increases overnight into Wednesday as the ridge moves over the Central Plains, allowing more summer-like heat and humidity to return. The large scale pattern will be dominated by a massive upper ridge in the western part of the continent.
931 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front has shifted east and is currently in the Appalachians. Overall, temps will be cooler today with northerly flow and clearing skies through the day. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push across eastern Kentucky early this morning, as a cold front also makes its way to the east and out of the area. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region behind the departed front, giving as much cooler weather today, with highs in the lower 70s on tap for eastern Kentucky.
305 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Weak upper ridging will continue across the western CONUS and build across the Great Plains today, bringing another day of dry weather. Upper ridging will break down on Wednesday, as upper wave energy pushes in from the southwest ahead of a stranded CA upper low. A thermal ridge will cross the region, bringing the hottest temperatures of the week. Models continue to trend toward isolated thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly across NE WY and the Black Hills area where instability will be a little stronger.
Some showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect areas north of Lincoln tonight, with fair weather returning across the area on Wednesday with highs in the lower 80s.
Ridging and drier air that has been in place over the past few days will continue to dominate the region through the evening, so have retained only 10% rain chances for the remainder of today. From synopsis, An expansive high pressure cell from the western North Atlantic to the southeastern United States will be the primary driver of local winds and seas this week.
731 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front over Central PA will continue to push southeast and out of the area this morning. Temperatures will be much cooler today and stay below normal through midweek before moderating into the weekend. The cold front appears to be almost half-way through the CWA and moving steadily.
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1047 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Unsettled pattern remains aloft as S/W energy crosses eastward across northern/central FL in the southern stream of a trough over the eastern United States. This will keep the subtropical ridge axis near south Florida to near Lake Okeechobee region today, producing an elevated S/SW flow aloft across west central Florida. Breaks in the high/mid level cloud cover already occurring, which should make for a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies.
820 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will move across central North Carolina today. High pressure will follow and build across the middle Atlantic through mid-week. At 06Z, a cold front was analyzed approaching the mountains. Most guidance agrees that the cold front will cross central NC between 18Z (west) and 03Z (east) this evening. In the wake of the departing cold front, high pressure and a drier and somewhat cooler airmass will build to our north and extend south across the Carolinas.
921 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 As a mid-level trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, cool and dry conditions are expected, with temperatures well below normal today.
537 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A weak cold front is currently positioned across northern AL into central TN. Instability is marginal ahead of and along the front this morning, but broad ascent from the associated upper trough and PWATs of 1. Models depict the cold front stalling somewhere along the southern tier of the CWA tomorrow, so should see diurnal scattered showers and storms develop in this area.
For tonight, winds veer to the southeast as the frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. The heat quickly rebounds for Wednesday as the center of the mid- level ridge repositions over the state and with the expected return of the higher dew points, especially for the areas with elevated soil moisture from the rainfall last night.
Winds tonight are expected to be a little stronger than the past few nights and this will help keep temperatures a little warmer than the past few nights with lows tonight in the 60s.
Overnight lows are forecast to be around 15 degrees below normal on average (approaching record lows) with relatively light winds, minimal coverage, and dewpoints in the low 40s. High pressure will be in control the remainder of the work week. Shower and storm chances return for the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves over the upper midwest and gulf moisture gets tapped under southwesterly flow aloft. A mix of MVFR to low VFR heights this afternoon will be followed by clearer skies this evening with intruding dry air and building high pressure. The next restriction chance will come with a late week low pressure system.
1112 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A slow moving cold front will cross the area today through tonight.
We'll probably lose some of that by this weekend as high pressure rebuilds and temperatures climb again.
242 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 An upper ridge will keep mostly dry conditions in place tonight. It will also be breezy in the afternoon ahead of a cold front. A weak cold front will cross the area Wednesday evening and switch winds from northwesterly to northeasterly.
The northeast to southwest oriented cold front has reached the Montgomery area with northwesterly flow present at site observations to the north of I-85. We'll see more sunshine tomorrow as high pressure centers over the eastern seaboard and surface winds become easterly.
239 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Cold front exits east this morning taking the rain with it. Dry with high pressure through the middle of the week. Otherwise, with high pressure continuing across the area on Wednesday, abundant sunshine and dry conditions are expected with highs about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. High pressure will provide dry, and gradually warming/increasing humidity during the period.
CMiller (Issued 346 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021) Today through Wednesday: Cooler temperatures this morning will give way to warmer weather as southerly winds kick in and bring some warmer air to Wisconsin. The high temperatures are expected to rebound into 70s for today and Wednesday.
The stronger storms in Oregon will produce hail but the lower atmospheric levels will be so warm that large hail is unlikely to reach the ground. Cold pooling in eastern OR may enhance the gust front as it moves into warmer air, which high resolution models have this afternoon and evening.
1132 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 The spinning closed low off the Cali coast will nudge high pressure eastward, and push its ridge axis overhead this afternoon. By evening hours, the backside of the ridge encroaches the Four Corners and the pressure gradient tightens aloft.
Short wave rounding the base of the upper level trough axis is exiting east out of our CWA attm. Dry and cool wx will follow for the rest of the night as upper level heights build on the back side of the exiting trough axis. Trending Warmer Then Wetter?. Temperatures expected to return to more normal, or even warmer than normal levels, as upper troffing lifts out and heights rise.
321 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A slow moving front has made its transition to the bottom of the state but still serve as a focus for lingering showers across the High 84 corridor through this afternoon. All activity should dissipate by early evening and a quiet cooler night(low temps ranging from the low to mid 60s)can be expected. High temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s including a few spots hitting 90-91 degrees thanks to ridging across the western half of the CONUS and a high pressure anchored over southwest TX. /JNE/ Upper level ridging over the Plains keeps the region in a light northwesterly flow through midweek.
Above average temperatures are expected mid week under building ridge. High pressure will be in control the remainder of the work week. Shower and storm chances return for the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves over the upper midwest and gulf moisture gets tapped under southwesterly flow aloft. Cloud coverage will diminish this evening with intruding dry air and building high pressure. The next restriction chance will come with a late week low pressure system.
Farther south, temperatures will be held up a bit more due to the lingering cloud cover behind the recent cold front, which has stalled out down along I-10 and will begin a gradual retreat back northward as a warm front later tonight through the day on Wednesday. Therefore, expect clouds to return areawide along with the warm front on Wednesday with more typical summertime conditions expected. Otherwise, expect generally quiet and increasingly warm and humid conditions going forward through the remainder of the short-term period on Wednesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Mid level lapse rates will also begin to steepen through the afternoon and evening Wednesday with a wave likely sparking at least isolated to scattered convection over the High Plains.
Most CAMS and the last few runs of the HRRR keep most of the convection focused east of the area near the warm front. Upper level ridging will be replaced by long wave troughing that develops from central Canada through the Central Plains. This occurs as upper level ridging develops along both coasts.
1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Cold front has cleared our area leaving behind spring-like weather on this summer day. The cold front has now passed entirely through Middle Tennessee.
Quite a bit of cloud cover lingers in the wake of the front, and this (along with the slightly cooler airmass) will limit temperatures from warming too much this aftn. Afternoon max temperatures will only be slightly cooler, hence my refusal to outright call this a cold front. Tomorrow (Wednesday), the frontal boundary will retrograde back into the area as a warm front. Wednesday will be slightly more pleasant with less rain chances but a few degrees warmer.
Surface temperatures have responded to the upper level ridge axis moving into the Front Range, with early afternoon temperatures already in the 80s to near 90 across most of the region and into western Nebraska. Forecast high temperatures appear on track, with temperatures late this afternoon topping out in the low to mid 90s across most area. Models now show a potent vorticity max/disturbance aloft moving clockwise along the periphery of the upper level ridge across east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle.
232 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Hot and dry and conditions are expected through Wednesday Mostly clear tonight with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. On Wednesday a cold front will drop south through the state during the afternoon/evening timeframe.
The high will shift east into the Appalachians into the lower TN valley tonight. Dew points were falling quickly into the lower to middle 50s. Morning lows should be in the lower to middle 50s. Northwest flow at 5h will persist the next couple of days as the surface and 8h ridges shifting east to the east Coast.
350 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will push east and off the Mid Atlantic Coast followed by a mostly clear and crisp night. Temperatures will cooler with low humidity through the middle of this week before moderating into the weekend. High pressure moves in for a few days and will bring with it mainly clear skies and just some flat cu on Wed. Sfc dewpoints in the l-m40s will make it feel very comfortable with the highs ranging form the mid 60s to mid 70s. Not much wind to speak of except across the nrn tier counties that will be closer to the aforementioned upper trough.
This high is forecast to the east/southeast tonight into the day on Wednesday, with south/southeasterly return flow beginning in its wake. For tonight, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along a warm front from Nebraska eastward into Iowa.
The axis of the upper ridge will shift directly over TX Wednesday afternoon w/the 593-594 dam high centered over W TX. Due to increasing hghts/thickness under the upper ridge, temperatures will climb back to near the triple digits.
121 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 As a mid-level trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, cool and dry conditions are expected, with temperatures well below normal today.
With high moisture still in place with models showing precipitable water values near or slightly above 2 inches, the low level convergence will provide a focus for convective development overnight. Activity will be scattered in the morning but decrease to isolated by the afternoon as drier air from developing upper ridge to the northwest has negative influence on rain chances. Dry conditions are expected for Wednesday night as the upper ridge sags south into the region.
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A slow moving cold front will cross the area through tonight.
Deeper moisture just off the coast will also make its way back quickly tomorrow and with the warm front moving inland, scattered showers/thunderstorms are going to be expected across SE TX once again through the afternoon.
High pressure currently centered in the Western Atlantic will slowly migrate north, shifting our winds to the east starting tomorrow afternoon. Aloft, an upper-level trough will approach the area and continue to break down the upper-level ridge that has been parked near our area for the past few days. Ridging will begin to build back into the region starting on Wednesday night, which will increase winds.
1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 High pressure continues to build into the region behind a cold front that is now draped well to the southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A broad upper trough, centered over the Hudson Bay, extends well south through the Mississippi Valley with a dominant ridge extending north over the desert southwest. This setup has established northwest upper level flow throughout the plains and into the Midwest, funneling cooler, drier air into the region.
Overnight lows are forecast to be around 15 degrees below normal on average (approaching record lows) with relatively light winds, minimal coverage, and dewpoints in the low 40s. High pressure will be in control the remainder of the work week. Shower and storm chances return for the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves over the upper midwest and gulf moisture gets tapped under southwesterly flow aloft. Cloud coverage will diminish this evening with intruding dry air and building high pressure. The next restriction chance will come with a late week low pressure system.
240 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Pattern shift underway across the forecast area as upper level ridge axis shifts eastward into the plans.
213 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A strong early summer cold front crosses the area today.
235 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A strong early summer cold front crosses the area today.
Strong surface ridging extending south- southwest from the Ozarks and Arbuckles will continue to slide east into the Tennessee Valley into this evening. An upper high will strengthen across West Texas/New Mexico tonight with a mid level impulse riding over the top of the ridge to our north later tonight into Wednesday morning. This will induce lee troughing across the Central High Plains with a 25-35 knot low level jet anchored just to our northwest. Unfortunately, the strengthening upper high and subsidence across area will help highs return into the lower to mid 90s and combine with humidity for more "normal" late June weather across the area.
232 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A strong early summer cold front crosses the area today.
236 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Current surface map shows weak trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Weak cold front slips into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota late Wednesday afternoon.
309 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 High pressure will begin to shift east over the next 24 hours. Wednesday will be the last day of low humidity as a warm front will begin to lift north from the Gulf Coast.
As the cold front continues to push east of the high terrain this morning, deeper moisture and thus mid/high clouds continue to exit eastward paving the way for increasing insolation and low cu. Cold front is rapidly moving east through the TN valley this morning. High pressure moves in tonight for clear skies and calm winds. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 59 84 64 86 / 20 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 57 83 62 87 / 30 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 55 82 61 86 / 20 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 51 81 59 83 / 90 0 0 10 10.
Drier and cooler today, slightly warmer yet very pleasant on Wednesday. Discussion: An upper trough axis continues to shift eastward across the OH/TN Valley this afternoon as the earlier cold front moves across the Carolinas and high pressure builds into East TN and southwest VA/NC from the west. Temperatures remain quite pleasant thanks to the advection of drier/cooler air with highs barely pushing into the upper 70s. Tonight, skies will clear out allowing for ample radiational cooling with lows in the low/mid 50s for most locales, slightly warmer in the valley. For Wednesday, slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, low humidity, sunny skies, and light nly flow.
232 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Ridging and warmer temperatures have returned to the area today, with highs peaking 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Wednesday will remain warm, but with the transitory ridge breaking down and increased mid-level moisture, there does appear to be an increased chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, especially across northern areas.
(This evening through Wednesday) This afternoon, high pressure had filled in across northern and central Texas behind a cold front located across south Texas. This increase in cloud cover and slightly warmer air should also keep lows in the low 70s tonight. Increasing southerly winds will bring much warmer air into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will be 4-6 deg C warmer than today, which should allow afternoon highs to push into the upper 90s.
The front has worked out this morning, leaving behind cooler air and afternoon cu. A cold front has shifted east and is currently in the Appalachians. Overall, temps will be cooler today with northerly flow and clearing skies through the day. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push across eastern Kentucky early this morning, as a cold front also makes its way to the east and out of the area. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region behind the departed front, giving as much cooler weather today, with highs in the lower 70s on tap for eastern Kentucky.
1133 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Weak upper ridging will continue across the western CONUS and build across the Great Plains today, bringing another day of dry weather. Upper ridging will break down on Wednesday, as upper wave energy pushes in from the southwest ahead of a stranded CA upper low. A thermal ridge will cross the region, bringing the hottest temperatures of the week. Models continue to trend toward isolated thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly across NE WY and the Black Hills area where instability will be a little stronger.
303 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A tranquil weather pattern will continue through much of the near term as high pressure remains in control. In the upper levels, northwest flow will gradually be replaced by a ridge building east from the Plains.
As the low continues its eastward progression, the upper level flow becomes very perturbed Wednesday evening which could lend enough energy to kick off a few showers. Ridging aloft will build into the Pac NW and southwest Canada early in the period. This will cause troffing to gradually develop over the central CONUS.
As upper ridge builds into the area on Wednesday, temperatures should continue to increase.
Cold front has cleared our area leaving behind spring-like weather on this summer day.
With a large ridge building over the western CONUS and western Canada the Upper Midwest will be downstream of this feature likely missing the hottest air. We will however have a few troughs passing through which will give some support for our next chance for some much needed rain.
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Beautiful summer afternoon in progress with high pressure draped over the region. Cooler than normal temperatures with cyclonic flow aloft with 1830Z temps generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Quiet weather will continue through Wednesday night with a transition back to a warmer airmass as a warm front passes to the northwest early Wednesday. Amplified flow regime over the country with a ridge focused over the Rockies and a downstream trough overt the eastern US. The trough axis will shift east tonight and Wednesday.
The dew points will rise into the 50s tonight and into the lower 60s on Wednesday. A cold front edges southeastward across Minnesota Wednesday into Wednesday night.
440 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A slow moving cold front slides offshore this evening, as a wave of low pressure rides north along it.
Temperatures should begin to warm back up on Wednesday into the mid to upper 80s as low level warm advection begins to increase over the area and upper ridging nudges into the plains.
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Troughing aloft continues over the E U. between a stout ridge over the W CONUS and W Atlantic ridging. At the surface, ridging extends across the peninsula from the W Atlantic into the E Gulf while a cold front settles into the SE U. High pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues into mid week, with S to SW winds turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Ridge axis lifts north during the latter half of the week, with winds becoming more easterly.
Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across the area again on Wednesday, however lower rain chances are expected due to an upper ridge building in from the west. The highest rain chances on Wednesday will be along the I-10 corridor near the stalled boundary.
228 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Temperatures were already in the low 90s as of 1pm MDT this afternoon across Glasgow Airport.
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 High pressure and a generally dry atmosphere will keep our skies mostly clear/partly cloudy through the short term. Winds will switch around to the ESE tomorrow as the center of the high moves off to the east.
Slightly cooler temperatures today, with breezy and dry conditions for much of northern Arizona leading to elevated fire weather conditions.