Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
702 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON TODAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AND AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER AZ HAS OUR REGION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ IS STEADILY PUMPING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO W TX.
1027 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER AZ THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WRN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX AND A DRY E/NE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT CLOUDS OVER ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACTUAL HIGHS AS THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WON'T BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW.
1055 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS CURRENTLY PROJECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RIDGING TO THE WEST WEAKENS. 00Z ECMWF NEARLY CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW.
OTHERWISE LIGHT RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE THE SOUTHERN AZ UPPER LOW IS STILL HAVING SOME IMPACT. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ DRIFTS SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO.
/ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HOLD ON ONE MORE DAY AND RESULT IN HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WET WEATHER TO THE AREA HAS FINALLY PUSHED EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A RIDGE WILL BE NOSING IN ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. TEMPERATURE AT MCCARRAN ALREADY RUNNING SEVEN DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO MID 80S WILL BE EASILY REACHED.
723 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WAS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
High pressure will remain in control over the area under partly sunny skies leading the way to mild conditions with highs in the mid 70s. With the better forcing well north of the area on Thursday morning, the cold front will slowly sag into the northwestern portion of the forecast area.
839 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH A CUT-OFF LOW NOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.
SUNNY AND SEASONABLE EARLY TODAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND RAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TOMORROW CLOUDS/FOG AND OCCASIONAL WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS LOW WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS. /PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI. / FOR THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST AND WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WARMER INTO THE LOW 60S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH ONLY MINOR S/W TROFS TRANSITING THE AREA EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. WITH A MINOR TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
1101 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.
912 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS.
Winds will generally be from a southelry direction throughout the day due to a trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. Skies look to be partly cloudy overnight with winds shifting to more of a southwesterly direction ahead of a cold front progged to move through Thursday. As for temperatures, highs today look to top out around 80 degrees with lows tonight ranging form the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas. This will help push a surface cold front through western Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
1012 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 STATIC CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OLD LOW PRESSURE TROF AXIS STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW AT 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. THE STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL VEER TOWARDS THE EAST AND WILL START TO FEED SOME OF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ALONG THE NE FL COAST SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW OF SRN WI TONIGHT. EXPECT BEST SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POTENTIAL TO BE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LATEST MODEL RUNS PUT A GOOD AREA OF QG FORCING AND COINCIDENT FRONTOGENESIS/PVU OVER THE AREA AS PACIFIC TROF DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH HAS STARTED TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH MONTANA. BUT POPS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN REASSERT ITSELF.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WITH MID/UPPER 50S IN THE FAR EAST.
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 A QUIET DAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY. /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HOLD ON ONE MORE DAY AND RESULT IN HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
906 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN GOING INTO THE LATE WORK WEEK.
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by about 6 hours. afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the board.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
A PACIFIC TROUGH HAS START TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH MONTANA. BUT POPS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN REASSERT ITSELF.
1235 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
925 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 Visible satellite imagery at 9 am shows what's left of the low clouds and dense fog across Coles, Edgar and southern Vermilion Counties. 00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by about 6 hours. afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the board.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RIDGING TO THE WEST WEAKENS. 00Z ECMWF NEARLY CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW.
Drying is expected Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the region. /Pelatti 12z TAFS: A warm front will move through the region today.
902 AM PDT WED OCT 7 2015 High pressure dominates the region this week with temperatures returning to above average.
/issued 341 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ Upper low bringing potential for thunderstorms with heavy rain over an extended number of periods to W TX and SE NM. Looking on IR the upper low can be seen over AZ early this morning with quite a bit of thunderstorms ahead of it in NM and far W TX. The latest model runs seem to be in pretty good agreement and are tending to take the low from AZ southward into Mexico. 24 hrs ago they tended to bring the low eastward to the edge of TX. That track of the low could limit the heavy rain potential for the eastern part of the watch.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AZ. /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND SLOWING DOWN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE PANHANDLES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER INTO MEXICO AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS FURTHER SOUTH.
730 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE ONLY POTENTIAL SYSTEM OF NOTE OVER THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT.
926 AM PDT WED OCT 7 2015 DRY AND HOT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 650 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CA.
1220 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER MILD DAY AND DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THUS SLIGHTLY LOWER MIN RH ACROSS THE SOUTHER PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LESSEN THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OVER THESE LOCATIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN FACT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. AND A COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
Deep layer ridging to our northwest has finally won the battle with departing low pressure off the Southeast U. The low clouds that have lingered for days are long gone.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE ONCE AGAIN. AND PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS /WITH A FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS SW VIRGINIA/.
1116 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE UPPER RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NUDGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.
Current forecast featuring afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 60s is right on track, so no update is needed at this time. The sunny skies and drier dwpts will make for ideal conditions for a large temp swing from morning lows in the upper 20s, rising to the lower to middle 60s by this afternoon. Southerly winds around 15 mph will also help to bring in the warmer air.
Temps in east-central KY should be just as cold Sunday morning as they were this morning, while very light return flow will keep western sections a few degrees warmer.
Another above average late fall day in the forecast, as southerly surface winds set up across the state under weak ridging aloft.
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 15 UTC AS A MILD DAY REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS NOW PROPAGATED INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING. DEEP TROUGH SLIDES ONSHORE SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
Some light rain continues this afternoon across far northwest Montana as a short ridge builds into the Northern Rockies pushing it north into Canada. Most of tomorrow will be very nice as models have trended slower with the cold front for Sunday night. The slower trend with the cold front for Sunday causes more concern for icy conditions, with most of the precipitation occurring or ending after dark.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD TRACKING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. AND SHIFT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONLY BEING IN COLORADO TO A BIT FURTHER EAST.
A WARM FRONT OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN. LOOK FOR RIDGING TO PUSH IN ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL U. AS A SIZABLE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT AND MON AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS TUE INTO WED. AS SW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. A EXITING TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY /ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS/. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT.
Despite clear skies and a dry airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 30s, southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 mph will keep overnight low temperatures several degrees warmer than last night. 12Z models continue to trend slower with onset of shower chances due to dry airmass in place over IL ahead of storm system, especially as lower levels and still have upper level ridge just east of IL Sunday night.
EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE N CARIB THROUGH FL MON/TUE AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH WED. MID-LATE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER BUT INDICATE DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OPEN AND RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENING IT MID TO LATE WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
AFTER A RATHER COOL START, IT HAS BECOME A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION.
Warmer low temperatures are likely tonight as a prevailing southerly flow continues to draw slightly warmer air northward into the area. The most challenging part of the later periods will be the eventual development and track of the vigorous upper level low that is progged to impact the plains.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO ARRIVE.
336 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 THE PACIFIC COAST AND EXITING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE LOWER 48. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE/WARM AIR OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SPILL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY BIG UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U. PROMPTING AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS AND THE EASTWARD EXIT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ST JAMES BAY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE US.
HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH ADVECTION OFF THE ATLC.
1155 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY.
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ERN OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
322 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL SHARPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID FIFTIES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across extreme eastern Colorado.
148 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 The approach and passage of a large upper trough will result in active weather across southeast New Mexico and west Texas the next few days.
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
18Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR HOLD POSITION. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER. WITH A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES WILL SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WITH SOME INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN. 850MB TEMPS ARE SLOWLY GOING TO WARM UP TODAY AND MAY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EAST OF I65 TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH.
THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG 140 WEST LONGITUDE.
1226 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY.
1238 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL CO. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CWA BRINGING STUNNING FALL WEATHER TO THE REGION.
211 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE AVERAGE LOWS OF THE LOW TO MID 30S.
318 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL AGAIN AND PROBABLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER (GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FT) AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW.
High pressure remains in control across Northern California this morning, with an atmospheric river moving through the Pacific Northwest.
FAVORING THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. BY SUNDAY EVENING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN US. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
1001 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 15 UTC AS A MILD DAY REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS NOW PROPAGATED INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING. DEEP TROUGH SLIDES ONSHORE SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
HOWEVER LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST MAY BE ACTED UPON BY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK EJECTING FROM A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
1203 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 25000 FEET) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TODAY AND TONIGHT QUIETER DAY IN STORE ACROSS SE MI AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST MIDDAY. STRONG WAA PATTERN WILL COMMENCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT A STOUT LL INVERSION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE. SO ALTHOUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL UNDERGO A GOOD DEAL OF WARMING. WILL SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WE TRANSITION OUT OF THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
238 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH LESS WIND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BLANKET THE REGION LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A SFC-850 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TO THE UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
Mid/upper 50s on tap most places, while south-central KY and perhaps metro Louisville could touch 60, but it will feel quite a bit warmer than the last 2 days with the lack of wind. High pressure will settle over the Tennessee Valley today, bringing a relaxation of the pressure gradient over and consequently lighter winds compared to the last couple of days.
/ISSUED 945 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/ BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN SRN STREAM WITH ATTENDANT LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SE TX TODAY.
219 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2015 UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TODAY.
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W THIS MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED. DELAY ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN OREGON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN WRN IDAHO. THE DELAY WILL ALLOW IDAHO ZONES TO BECOME WARMER ON SUNDAY THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY.
No expansion in the Red Flag Warning will be necessary despite the low humidities just on the south side of the current warning, as wind speeds are beginning to decrease, remaining below thresholds.
203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015 ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A BROAD/FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. QUIET/PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. THINGS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.