Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
140 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Cold front crosses today. High pressure builds Sunday. Unsettled much of the next work week, as low pressure systems cross. The low will drag a cold front across the Middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians. Did tighten up the POP gradient as there should only be an hour or two window for precipitation at any given point across the lowlands. with a bit bigger window in the higher terrain as showers linger. do have some snow flakes mixing in across the higher terrain. This only resulted in minimal changes today, but did give a degree or two cooler tonight. High pressure will move into the TN Valley Sunday night and nose into the area allowing most to decouple overnight.
652 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected today across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania as a strong cold front sweeps across the region.
646 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A dry re-enforcing cold front will move through the region tonight.
/Issued 357 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 / A dry cold front is forecast to move across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures can be expected tonight and Sunday.
An area of low pressure will then move into the Great Basin Sunday bringing slight cooling.
Today Through Sunday Night The next cold front is dropping SE into NWRN sections of the CWA early this Sat morning.
Mid- level clouds lingering across South Florida tonight associated with a pre- frontal trough.
449 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 showers will accompany a cold front that sweeps east through the region early this morning. this front will usher in cooler temperatures for the weekend.
At 3 AM, a weak cold front extending from Mena Ark to Wichita Falls to Lubbock will continue a slow march to the south. the Hi-Res ARW, the NMM and the Texas Tech Wrf all show the sea breeze colliding with the weak front around 21z so would expect some strong to severe storms later this afternoon with the highest rain chances between 2 and 7 PM. The weak cold front will stall somewhere over SE TX and there will be a few leftover outflow boundaries from afternoon convection so feel there is a chance of continuing shra/tsra overnight and will maintain a chance of precipitation all night.
High pressure will bring a relief from the recent heavy rainfall that has occurred across much of northeast Montana into the weekend.
with a narrow ribbon of IFR conditions along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains. they will quickly encounter cooler more stable conditions which should limit how far east they progress. though CAPE may be the limiting factor with dew points in the lower 40s yielding values in the 500- 1000 J/kg range.
Lows are expected back down into the 40s(F) tonight with little change likely to the air mass across the high plains. Although the strength of the flow aloft will remain less than favorable, convergence in the vicinity of a stationary frontal boundary/trough across eastern Colorado will set the stage for shower and isolated thunderstorm development during the day Sunday as low/mid level lapse rates steepen.
317 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Surface analysis this morning had the center of high pressure over eastern Montana with high pressure ridge extending south into western and central Kansas. Rather dry air was working into the region from the north with dew points at 07Z were in the low to mid 30s in northeast Kansas with upper 20s further north upstream in Nebraska.
A circulation currently positioned off the Pacific Northwest coast is nudging a short wave ridge across the Treasure State. The lower heights will keep surface temps below normal today, mainly in the mid to upper 50s. By later today, the ridging will begin to give way to the aforementioned trough. The beginning of the week will start out fairly wet over zones west of a Sheridan to Billings to Roundup line as an upper level low moves through the Central Rockies southwest of the area. Cool and moist easterly flow, combined with weak diffluence aloft will give good chances for low elevation rain and some snow in the high elevations.
355 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Mixing and some patchy low clouds have allowed for temperatures to stall in the low to mid 30s most of the night. The high pressure system responsible for all this will dominate conditions today, however a northwest flow wave will also bring in some additional cloud cover, which will suppress warming. We will see weak warm advection above the inversion, but past experience suggests that the James Valley in particular has the best opportunity to drop below freezing again tonight. An upper ridge will continue to build through the week helping to bring a warming trend.
Sub freezing temperatures are expected across central lower Michigan tonight. Min temps should generally bottom out in the lower 30's near to south of I-96 tonight where some boundary layer mixing and scattered cloud cover will mitigate frost potential. However scattered rain showers will redevelop later today due to instability from some diurnal heating and with the pool of cold air aloft associated with the upper trof axis overhead. Temps will continue to average well below normal and only reach the lower 50's Sunday.
308 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 The 07Z objective sfc analysis indicated the high pressure ridge extended from eastern MT into western NEb. This ridge axis will slowly cross the region over the next 24 hours.
An upper-level trough analyzed over the Great Lakes region early this morning will continue to amplify over the eastern part of the country through this weekend. At the surface, a weak cold front remains to the north of the forecast area and this feature will continue to shift south through the area today. The cold front will make a generally dry passage through the area today. Highs today will continue in the upper 80s to around 90, except a few degrees cooler near the coast with onshore flow. Really the only noticeable changes for Sunday will be the slightly cooler morning lows and, more significantly, the lower dew points, which will make it feel more comfortable outside.
3 AM CDT surface map showed a cold front just north of a Jonesboro AR to Paducah KY line. A prefrontal thermal ridge had persisted through the early overnight, with temperatures over northeast AR as much as 15 degrees warmer than over the TN River Valley. The cold front should sweep through the Midsouth. upper trof lifts offshore.
Downslope warming will contribute to afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies.
The wx map shows eastern SD in between low pressure over eastern NE and high pressure building in from northern MT and Alberta. The main weather concern since around 0530Z has been the the light steady freezing rain and potential sleet across our southeastern counties. These winds will quickly diminish later this morning, and into the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient weakens as high pressure builds in. At this point, the highest snow amounts may line up lining up north of the area that had freezing rain this morning. May need to convert the Freezing Rain Advisory to a Winter Weather Advisory after the freezing rain threat diminishes. Otherwise, another area of low pressure is timed to work across region early Wednesday morning, potentially brining another quick burst of snow (mainly concentrating across the southern half of the cwa).
A weak cold front will pass through KCDS, bringing light north winds which will turn to east and then south. Another trough will swing through the southern Canadian Prairies while another PAC NW low starts to take shape which you will read about in the extended discussion. Temps will be in the low to mid 70s on the Caprock and warmer to the east off the Caprock, to near 80.
The progressive pattern will amplify over the next 24 hours or so as an upper level trough digs southward over the CA coast and an upper level high builds across FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Continued to favor the faster frontal progression with the strong cold front pushing through NE OK by sunrise Thurs before slowing as the shallow cold air encounters the higher terrain of far NW AR through far SE OK. Precip will begin to expand north of the sfc boundary late Thurs night with a period of light freezing rain possible near the I-44 corridor.
A stronger storm system will likely affect the region by the latter half of the week with showers and much cooler temperatures expected, especially over south-central Arizona. This feature is expected to dampen as it moves inland, and its glancing influence may result in increased clouds and a few light showers, especially across the higher terrain of central and northern parts of AZ. More substantial amplification of a Pacific trough will occur along the coast later this week.
Rain and cooler temperatures expected for the weekend.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night with lows ranging from the upper 30s northwest to middle 40s southeast. Near-record temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs mainly in the 70s, with some low 80s out in the Low Rolling Plains. This change is tied to a southward oscillation of a Polar Vortex trough across the Canadian Prairies tomorrow.
At this time the low level air should be too dry to allow this to happen but if a bit more moisture can work into about the 850mb to 750mb layer some instability could be released and a little sleet or freezing rain would be possible.
The non-diurnal temp curve has allowed temps to stay above freezing so any precipitation that falls will be in liquid form. Temps Wednesday will warm into the low 60s for areas south of I-70, low to mid 50s between I-70 and HWY 36, and mid 40s along the IA border.
Ahead of the band and initially as the rain moves in, temperatures are near or just a bit below freezing. The main concern for this period will be the current rain/freezing rain situation. With the band, there has been a brief period of freezing rain before temperatures warm above freezing. The area most likely to see more freezing rain will be the northeast part of the forecast area. The GFS is quite a bit further south and east of the local area than the EC with the progression of the aforementioned upper level low across the southwest. expect a blast of cold air to rapidly track across the local area to start the extended periods on Wednesday as a strong cold front races across the local area.
and this trend will continue as the surface cyclone to our north exits east and the pressure gradient further relaxes.
A cold front drops south across the region Wednesday Night with an upper trough rotating around the Hudson Bay polar vortex moving through the area.
Attention then turns to an expected sizable wind response to a strong cold frontal passage early tonight. Southerly gusts to increase from mid afternoon onward, with a more pronounced increase expected as winds become southwesterly 02z-03z with a cold frontal passage. Plan to hang on to the high wind watch until aftn package.
339 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 Through Wednesday Afternoon: A rapidly deepening low pressure system moving through the Midwest today has tightened pressure/height gradients enough to cause gusty winds across the ArkLaMiss. Increased humidity, cloudiness, and continuing south winds around 10 mph will keep tonight much warmer than normal. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today as mid-level ridging builds over the Southeast U.
229 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A very large and robust ridge is parked off the coast of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The ridge axis stretches across the southeastern United States and to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this high pressure, winds are northeast to east this afternoon.
The cold front pushed through the northern half of the forecast area early this morning with good clearing behind the front. The cold front does appear to be weakening though WV imagery showing the ridging over the great basin already causing the frontal surface to begin waving back to the north.
The remainder of the area will be quiet as high pressure builds into the forecast area.
132 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A coastal trough will brush the region today into tonight.
On Wednesday, westerly winds continue to favor the mountains more than the lower valleys for any new snow.
Forecasting highs in the lower 80s, with the record highs at both Abilene (1907) and San Angelo (2000)at 82 degrees.
For today and Wednesday, above normal temperatures will continue as a leeside sfc trof of low pressure develops along the ern slopes of the Rockies with corresponding downsloping southwest to west winds expected.
The majority of the lower clouds will gradually move southeastward, and ceilings will lift and slowly scatter from northwest to southeast. Upped aftn highs into mainly the lower to mid 70s. /issued 438 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/ Temperatures are running some 25-30 degrees warmer or more in some cases this morning compared to 24 hours ago. A quick analysis of the low levels reveals the culprit as increasing southerly winds /aided by a 50kt LLJ at H850/ have led to rapid moisture return area wide with dew points now in the mid 50s at nearly all sites.
The ridge is forecast to weaken as a cold front over the Rockies and Plains moves across the OH and Mid MS valleys late today and tonight. The gradient tightens across some of the higher terrain of the mountains today and this will need to be monitored for a possible wind advisory for the elevations above 1500 ft.
Pressure rises were rapidly following over northwest Kansas with a modified cold front moving in.
307 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 Main forecast challenge through the short term period will be a strong cold frontal passage and chances for light snowfall late tonight and Wednesday. Cross section Analise's shows a deep layer of lift over much of the forecast area, but westerly winds in the mid-levels will limit snowfall coverage and amounts due to the presence of warmer, dry air. A northern stream trough aloft will push through the region Wednesday night well behind the arctic front.
429 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Arctic high pressure has shifted off the East Coast. The southerly flow on the backside of the offshore high plus air mass modification will result in warmer weather which will continue through the rest of the week. High pressure has shifted off the coast. There is some moisture along the coast associated with a coastal trough. Temperatures expected to remain above freezing. Warm advection continues on southerly winds, so warmer nights and temperatures above normal Wednesday afternoon, with readings in the low to mid 60s north and central, and possibly around 70 in the south Midlands/CSRA.
A low pressure system has been developing over the central Plains early this morning, as high pressure remains anchored along the east coast. This low will move northeast toward the Great Lakes today. A cold front will slide east toward the area today as the aforementioned low tracks northeast.
The next eastern Pacific trough will move inland through northern California this evening, then race east across the Great Basin late tonight through Wednesday.
Low pressure was located along boundary in northeast WY.
The majority of the lower clouds will gradually move southeastward, and ceilings will lift and slowly scatter from northwest to southeast.
305 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A low pressure system over Wisconsin this afternoon will continue to track off to the northeast tonight. A cold front will sink through the region tonight. This front will then quickly push back to the north Wednesday as a warm front. Showers will once again decrease tomorrow night as the warm front moves north of the area.
Otw, associated cold front will be on approach overnight. Amounts will generally be on the low side with a quarter inch expected. On Wednesday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will return north as a warm front.
Heaviest snow in the band is from just west of Bemidji thru Detroit Lakes to Fergus Falls and Breckenridge at 13z. One area of heavier precip (mix of freezing rain and snow) Watertown SD area and model data and looking at mid level frontogensis and upward vertical motion would suggest the activity in ne SD will intensity and also looking at the same for se ND. Winds increase behind this system as the low develops more into western Wisconsin.
This will be short lived as winds shift back to a south to southwest direction this evening into the overnight period as a trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight look to range from around freezing across west central Kansas to around 40 degrees across south central Kansas. Warm and dry conditions continue Wednesday with a cold front pushing through the area Wednesday night.
1037 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2017 Upper trough and associated fgen band of snow quickly shifting east this morning across the region. Active westerly flow will continue in the period as the NE Pac upper trough breaks down and ejects in pieces toward the region. Snow will shift east and end this morning as the upper trough exits the region with the ll frontal boundary stalling over the far southern fa.
Aloft, a strong upper-level cyclone is lifting northeast into the Great Lakes as a strong upper-tropospheric jet streak noses in from the west. A surface cold front was moving east across the Midwest, extending from an area of low pressure over WI, south across MO into north TX. A stronger cold front behind the initial boundary will overtake the initial feature, moving into the northern portion of the CWA tonight. This front will stall tonight, likely north of I-40, lifting back to the north as a warm front by sunrise. Additional showers are likely, especially along and north of the warm front.
1125 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 Latest 08z surface analysis shows low pressure developing over southern Nebraska and northern Kansas with warm front extending into southern Iowa and northern Missouri. will be trending toward a warmer solution. This would result in a wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow across the southern forecast area this morning. especially in the higher terrain and open areas.
These strong southern winds are also bringing in warmer air and will see mild temperatures tonight and seasonally warm highs in the 50s and low 60s across the valley on Wednesday.
An arctic cold front is advancing through Nrn Neb this morning. Temperatures are above freezing but the ground sfc is below 32F.
Meanwhile a cold front resides along the Central and Southern Mississippi River Valley with thunderstorms forming across Southern IL and SE MO. Ahead of the cold front is a strong LLJ at the 850 and 925mb levels in a area of tightening pressure gradient. The precip ahead of the cold front still looks to be related to the strong LLJ pulling moisture into the region in a more top down saturation scenario. The actual cold front slows and only makes it just SE of the Ohio River by Wednesday morning. The highest gusts will generally be at LOZ/SME/SYM with lesser gusts expected to the east.
A dry backdoor cold front will slip into the NE zones during the afternoon hours. We may be even warmer than this, with 12z MAV is cranking out low to mid 70s along the Oklahoma border. Much cooler of course across the NE zones, where the NE wind shift will arrive first, with Trego and Ellis counties remaining in the 40s. Warm and dry conditions continue Wednesday with a cold front pushing through the area Wednesday night.
10" on the low end to 0. 25" on the high end. With early morning temperatures right around/at/or below the freezing mark, will be hoisting a winter weather advisory for patchy freezing rain this morning with ice accumulations around a few hundredths of inch. Temperatures turn much colder late in the week as Arctic high pressure slides into the region.
238 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 Strong area of low pressure which brought 50 to 60 mph winds to the area earlier today has started to lift out of the region to the northeast. Cold front was currently pushing through the area from the west. The surface cold front is expected to remain northwest of the area during the day on Wednesday and then start moving into the area on Wednesday night.
356 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A coastal trough will brush the region tonight into Wednesday.
236 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Surface ridging over the region will give way to a large frontal system. Rain chances will diminish during the day as the front rotates northward as a warm front pulling the deeper moisture north and east with it.
Regional 10 AM surface analysis shows high pressure along the mid-Atlantic coastline, with light east-southeasterly flow and dewpoints in the 40s locally. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for a warmer day, with highs returning to the 60s.
May be some localized blowing snow as the high builds in tonight so current advisory looks good with the warning in the mountains continuing with westerly aspects more likely to see the heaviest snow tonight.
WV imagery shows generally zonal flow across the CONUS, w/an upper trough approaching the MS Valley. Latest NAM mtn wave signature forecast and H7 height gradient fields suggest this could translate to the lower elevations Wednesday afternoon for a few hours, and we'll keep the high wind warning in place for the Guadalupes. Current guidance still seems too cool, as thicknesses are forecast to remain more or less steady the next few days, so everything points toward warmer, near-record temps for at least the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, an upper trough just of the PacNW coast is forecast to begin strengthening and moving down the west coast late in the week, transitioning zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to SW.
356 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 A low pressure system moving into southern Canada, will bring light snow followed by a light wintry mix this evening that will change to rain overnight.
214 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017 Strong surface gradient in place across the Tennessee Valley as the region is currently sandwiched between a strong high pressure ridge off the Canadian Maritimes and a deepening low pressure system across the upper Midwest. The trailing front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will slowly approach the region tonight.
Winds in the Fox Valley and Lakeshore areas should be strong enough to at least reach the low end of wind advisory criteria during the late afternoon and evening. Upper jet dynamics, along with a mid level trough, will bring a chance for snow to the area starting Wednesday morning, with snow likely across the north by midday.
115 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 Arctic High pressure will begin retreating eastward off the coast. High pressure over North Carolina and Virginia extending into the area. Some moisture along the coast associated with coastal trough. Temperatures this afternoon warming into the low to mid 50s. Temperatures expected to remain above freezing. Warm advection continues on southerly winds, so warmer nights and temperatures above normal Wednesday afternoon, with readings in the low to mid 60s north and central, and possibly around 70 in the south Midlands/CSRA.
A potent short wave trough was tracking east across the central Rocky Front Range, producing scattered rain/snow showers and very strong gradient winds. Decided to extend the High Wind Warning for WY zones 106 (Bordeaux), 117 (Vedauwoo) and 118 (Cheyenne) for this possibility. Upgraded the High Wind Watches to Warnings for the wind prone areas today through tonight. The exception will be east central WY into northwest NE as an arctic cold front settles south tonight and Wednesday. High temperatures today will be cooler in the wake of a Pacific cold frontal passage with mid 30s to mid 40s.
The surface cold front associated with this system lies off to our west along the mid- Mississippi valley and the ArkLaTex. Ahead of the front, there's an area of persistent low level isentropic lift, with flow from the south-southwest over the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and the lower Mississippi valley.