Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The combination of clear skies and weakening wind speeds across the region will promote radiational cooling and allow temperatures to fall into the low 30s across the Big Country to mid 30s across Central Texas. After a chilly start to the end of the work week, high temperatures should warm into the low 60s Friday afternoon. Although it will be warmer than the past few days, temperatures will still be about 10 degrees below-normal for the end of October.
High pressure and northwest winds will bring drier air into the state.
523 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Weak ridging continues across the western US today, allowing further warming across the state, except for Jackson Hole, where the inversion trapped snowmelt moisture longer than expected, before clouds finally broke late this morning. Friday will see a continuing day of warmer temperatures, as upper flow shifts more from due west across the state, as a quick trough sweep ashore across the Pacific Northwest. The approaching trough will help increase winds across the central wind corridor during the afternoon, with gusts of 35 mph still expected during the afternoon. The trough will race through the region Friday night, mainly just increasing cloud cover.
932 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Cloud cover being a little stubborn across the southeast half of our region this evening as northeast winds in the lowest 5kft is putting a halt so to speak on the west to east clearing trend. While winds have decoupled from their earlier gusts this afternoon, looking at observations across our northwest, winds between 5 and 10kts continue from the northwest and with the ridge axis expected to remain to our northwest tonight, winds should not go completely calm. The clearing line to this wrap around cloud cover was just northwest of our airspace and as the upper level trough continues to eject out north and east of our region.
/issued 238 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ An upper low is currently situated just east of the Mississippi River along the TN/MS border and will continue to track east this afternoon. CAMs (Convective Allowing Model solutions) indicate showers will diminish this evening as the upper low moves into Middle Tennessee. Behind this system, high pressure will begin to build into the region. Temperatures on Friday are expected to be much cooler with highs in the 50s. Dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend in response to high pressure.
/issued 223 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): High pressure will dominate in the short term with cool temperatures and northwesterly winds. Friday into friday night continued northwesterly flow with light to moderate winds will keep temperatures below normal once again with highs in the low 70s falling to the upper 40s to low 50s overnight.
High temperatures tomorrow will be forecasted slightly warmer than ensemble guidance with weak lee side low and westerly push for lower elevations closer to the foothills. Only minor changes made to overnight lows over the higher terrain and sky with lack of cloud cover. This will likely result in winds gusting 55 to 65 mph at mountain top, with the foothills seeing some gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range - mainly in the higher foothills due to no strong stable layer to force a mountain wave.
Sunny skies, except for some morning fog in the lower valleys, prevail across the Northern Rockies today. Expect one more night of high pressure, valley inversions, and resultant valley fog.
/issued 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ After our prolonged winter storm across the region the past few days today has been quite pleasant with sunny skies and much warmer temperatures. What snowpack we had across the area has been rapidly diminishing this afternoon with only a small patch of widespread snow across the southwest Texas Panhandle which may help to keep temperatures on the cooler side. Tonight, with clear skies and light winds temperatures should plummet across the region with most locations bottoming out near the freezing mark.
Tomorrow looks warmer than today once again, particularly with a westerly wind and little if any snow left on the ground. Bumped highs up a couple of degrees, and that may not be high enough given how verification has been warmer than forecast the last few days.
/GG/ Tonight into Tomorrow: A much cooler day has prevailed across the region with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. This all comes as a front moved through the region earlier today and an upper trough moved across the region. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower 40s. Another cool day is expected tomorrow with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south.
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Most of the forecast area is under clear skies this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s as high pressure builds in from the west.
Upper-level ridge to the west keeping the area quiet.
An upper-level trough is currently situated overhead and will continue to push eastward through the evening.
As TS Zeta begins to embark eastward off of the East Coast, its interaction with the upper level low, now centered over northern MS, will continue to produce rain and drizzle along the deformation band extending from AR/MO through southern IL and into Indiana and KY. Cloud cover will moderate temperatures as Friday morning mins start off in the upper 30s across southern Indiana and the low 40s across central KY. Clouds should begin to break up by Friday afternoon, possibly allowing enough insolation for high temps to reach into the low to mid 50s across the CWA.
Also already starting to see visibility lower within the low clouds so will maintain areas of fog which we expanded across the area in the last forecast update/product issuance. Temperatures to the south of that boundary had risen into the mid 40s while to the north and east had pushed at least into the mid 30s, thankfully, ending the risk of freezing rain.
901 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 (Issued 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020) Tonight through Friday night: Pressure gradient between Zeta remnants and high pressure in the plains will relax overnight. Surface ridging takes hold for Friday into Friday evening. Still chilly though with proximity of low level thermal trough.
459 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Temperatures today have grossly overachieved with most places getting into the low-mid 60s. JKL Moisture laden northwest flow aloft producing some mid and high level clouds across the area while low pressure over the plains is producing some brisk wind in the foothills.
1006 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 With a cold front approaching the CWA, winds have increased higher than earlier model guidance suggested. A short wave is expected to move from the lower MS Valley this evening. Cooler temperatures are in store for the short term. Deep upper trough digs into the eastern U.
The clearing line to this wrap around cloud cover was just northwest of our airspace and as the upper level trough continues to eject out north and east of our region. /Tonight through Friday Night/ Clouds continue to hold in the wake of a strong cold front/closed upper low.
457 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE Weak upper ridge will cross NM from west to east by 30/12Z with relatively light southwest to west flow aloft thereafter. Weak surface lee trough. Clear conditions with dry and warmer weather prevailing will continue through the end of the week.
A more significant cold front will be arriving to start the next work week.
A regional-scale analysis reveals a weakening, fragmented cold front extending northeast to southwest across much of the Gulf basin. However, within the last several hours, the density gradient has expanded in space, and become detached from both the pressure trough and the shear line. The atmosphere certainly is capable of supporting showers, and latest Doppler radar scans do show isolated, low-topped showers drifting around and north of the lower Keys.
The ridge will also weaken the pressure gradient across the CWA and help diminish the northerly winds overnight. MRB An upper level low was over the southwest tip of TN this afternoon with light rain in the deformation zone over southeast MO and southwest IL. The CAMs shift this precipitation southeast of our forecast area by 00Z Friday as the upper level low weakens and shifts east of our area as it opens up. Even though it will be warmer, the high temperatures will still be around 10 degrees below normal for late October.
1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 (This evening through Friday) Upper level low well east of the area this afternoon. with the last of the low clouds on the backside eroding across the area.
Lingering stratus will complicate temperatures and some locations may struggle to warm above freezing despite warmer air mass aloft. Where clouds clear highs may reach the lower 40s. Saturday-Saturday night: A stronger strong and cold front are shown to move across the region.
An upper-level trough is currently situated overhead and will continue to push eastward through the evening. MVFR conditions across all mid-state terminals at issuance due to an upper level low on the backside of our current weather system.
Today Currently, the remnants of Zeta are centered along the central Mid- Atlantic Coast with the associated mid/upper trough overhead. Based on the position of the high and local considerations, confidence is higher for frost formation along the northern Plateau, northeast TN, southwest VA, and in the TN/NC mountains than elsewhere.
There may be even a brief period of freezing drizzle as the precipitation ends. On Saturday night (Halloween), a cold front will move east across the region.
On Sun behind a surface cold front, temps are expected to dip back into mostly the 50s with northwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph, yielding afternoon wind chills in the lower 40s in the northern half of the region.
These are expected to end later this morning as high pressure builds. This high pressure will lead to another quiet period today through tonight. The next chance for rain/snow arrives on Saturday as a low pressure system over Canada moves to the north of our area. High temps will be much warmer than what we've seen lately, with highs in the 40s expected. As the cold front sweeps across the CWA Saturday afternoon and evening, rain will transition over to snow.
Clear conditions with dry and warmer weather prevailing will continue through the end of the week.
/Issued 1006 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ With a cold front approaching the CWA, winds have increased higher than earlier model guidance suggested. A short wave is expected to move from the lower MS Valley this evening. Cooler temperatures are in store for the short term. Deep upper trough digs into the eastern U.
350 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over TX/OK ridging ewd and providing a nrly low-level flow across the forecast area. With plentiful sunshine and CAA gradually shutting down, afternoon temps look a little warmer than yesterday with highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s. A good of radiative cooling will allow temps to cool to the lower/mid 40s for all but the immediate coastline tonight.
The combination of mainly clear skies, light winds, dew points falling to near freezing, and a cool start to the night should allow temperatures to fall to the upper 20s to mid 30s by Saturday morning. As the high slips away to the east on Saturday, weak warm air advection will return.
Flat ridging aloft over the area will contribute to a dry forecast across South-Central Texas through the short term. The low level ridge axis moving east across the CWA today will result in much less wind compared to yesterday, with a weak NW to NE flow to start the day, turning east to southeast across southern and western areas this afternoon. Highs are forecast to rebound warmer on Saturday, into low to mid 70s, as southern low develops and despite thin cirrus streaming through the area.
Elsewhere, breezy S/SW return flow will develop by late AM as pressures fall ahead of an approaching trof, allowing for a pleasant warmup this aftn. Trof axis and associated cold front cross the area late this evening into the overnight period.
Upper level flow will be mostly zonal over the central plains through Saturday morning as a ridge begins to move over the west coast states. Highs will range from the low 60s near the KS/OK border to upper 60s/lower 70s around and north of US-50. Winds will likely increase out of the south to around 10-15 mph after sunset as the surface pressure gradient responds to a deep surface cyclone moving into south-central Canada. Later in the morning, a cold front is expected to move through our area as a potent upper level impulse pushes a surface cyclone across southern Canada. Saturday night we will likely drop below freezing once again as weakening north winds and clear skies optimizes radiational cooling.
408 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Fcst kicks off with some cold advection stratocu across the NW half of the CWA that should have some gradual scattering/clearing from SE to NW after sunrise this morning allowing for mostly clear and benign ridge dominated remainder of the short term. Temps remain below climo norms in the post cold frontal regime thru period. Highs today and Saturday will be in the low 60s for much of north GA and mainly 50s for the far north mtns.
216 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Northwest mid/upper flow will flatten some today as a low amplitude mid/upper ridge translates eastward across the central CONUS. Low level southerly flow will allow temperatures to continue to moderate with highs returning to more seasonable values in the low to mid 60s. A vigorous mid/upper trough moving across Manitoba into southwest Ontario on Saturday will drive a cold front south across the Central Plains. This front will keep highs near normal across much of the area on Saturday with afternoon values topping out in the low to mid 60s once again.
224 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Dry conditions with generally warmer than average temperatures are expected from today through the weekend.
Temperatures at H85 warm through the night tonight as warmer air spreads eastward. Boundary layer is well mixed by afternoon, especially across southwest Nebraska, and boosted highs into the lower 60s there. A trailing cold front will cross the area with gusty northwest winds developing during the day Saturday behind the front.
This will bring cooler conditions with a northwest to westerly flow this morning becoming more northerly by evening. while it will feel substantially cooler, we actually will be quite close to climatology across the region for both today's highs and the overnight lows.
Therefore have warmed the low temperatures a few degrees for tonight. Associated surface cold front will move through the area early Saturday.
Cool and dry conditions continue today with highs in the low 70s across the area. The weekend is expected to start off nice as high pressure sets in and brings mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds.
Upper level flow will be mostly zonal over the central plains through Saturday morning as a ridge begins to move over the west coast states. Highs will range from the low 60s near the KS/OK border to upper 60s/lower 70s around and north of US-50. Winds will likely increase out of the south to around 10-15 mph after sunset as the surface pressure gradient responds to a deep surface cyclone moving into south-central Canada. Main weather event for the day on Saturday will be a cold front coming in towards the late morning and afternoon. The brunt of the arctic air should slide over the Great Lakes as an upper level ridge over the desert southwest should keep the coldest of the air out of the area.
The NAM indicates that the low clouds will linger through the night over much of the region, while the GFS aggressively clears us out this evening. If we clear out and the winds can go light or calm some locations from the Ozark Foothills through the KMVN area may briefly reach freezing by daybreak Friday. South winds will return Saturday as another cold front approaches the area. The dry cold frontal passage will begin late Saturday night. A few locations could briefly drop to freezing. South winds Saturday will lead to a nice warm up to the lower 60s, which is still a bit below normal. Saturday night lows will be in the low to mid 40s with persistent breezes on each side of the cold front.
Warm advection increases ahead of an approaching cold front Saturday.
Expect mostly sunny skies with highs topping out in the low to mid 40s this afternoon. The weekend: Strong southerly flow is expected to continue on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. There is still a lot of uncertainty with timing of the cold front on Saturday which may impact high temperatures, but for now, we are looking at the front passing through the area mid-day and early afternoon. As the cold front passes in the afternoon, expect northerly winds to become gusty.
(Today and tonight) Will keep Freeze Warning going through early this morning as a few observations are nearing the freezing mark. After the chilly start, warmer today with relatively light wind most of the day as low level ridge settles in over the region.
The tightened gradient (likely via the prox- imity of the deep upper trof/closed low exiting NE of the region) should be easing by this afternoon as upper ridge begins building in from the west. At the surface, high pressure settling over the state today/tonight should give us more cool/below average temper- atures. with lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s across inland locations and upper 50s along the coast. However, this won't have much impact as the dry/quiet air mass remains in place over the CWA, save for some slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures (lower/mid 70s). Western portion of the flat mid level ridging from Mexico into the Gulf will expand northward into the Rockies.
233 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure will bring cool air and light winds to central and southeast Illinois today.
Tomorrow should be warmer with most of the area warming into the mid 60s.
HRRR soundings at KMCW continue to show small potential for light freezing mist with loss of ice introduction, but with a small dry layer near the surface, impacts should be limited if any.
325 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure to the north will provide cooler and drier air into the weekend.
/issued 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ After our prolonged winter storm across the region the past few days today has been quite pleasant with sunny skies and much warmer temperatures. What snowpack we had across the area has been rapidly diminishing this afternoon with only a small patch of widespread snow across the southwest Texas Panhandle which may help to keep temperatures on the cooler side. Tonight, with clear skies and light winds temperatures should plummet across the region with most locations bottoming out near the freezing mark. Zonal flow returns for Friday before a honest trough passes north of us around sunrise Saturday morning.
Northerly winds have been blustery/brisk especially along and east of the Mississippi River where the pressure gradient is stronger between incoming high pressure in the Plains and Zeta remnants. For tonight we will see weakening flow, and eventually elevated warm advection late which could serve to strengthen inversion and trap the lower clouds. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 40s north, where more clouds than sun is anticipated, to the lower 50s south where more sun is expected. Key Messages: 1) Windy conditions this weekend 2) Generally dry 3) Typical fall roller coaster on temperatures Models in good agreement taking a strong low pressure system from the Canadian Prairies into Ontario this weekend. This will send a strong cold front through the region Saturday night.
127 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Brief MVFR Cigs/Vsbys may impact the northern terminals through 09Z and until 12Z across the southern terminals as a cold front with some scattered showers along and ahead of it moves south through the region, otherwise VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. A more significant cold front will be arriving to start the next work week.
302 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 A break in the cloud cover earlier tonight allowed most of the area to cool into the lower to mid 30s. Light winds and weak mixing will likely hold temperatures near to a perhaps bit warmer than the past couple days. Forecast highs range from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s in the south. Tonight should see mostly clear skies with initially light easterly winds increasing and backing to the south around 10 to 15 mph by morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front developing in the plains. Key messages: 1) Warmer and windy on Saturday.
1037 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Most of the forecast area is under clear skies this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures will have some ups and downs, warming tomorrow (highs mid 50s to around 60) and Saturday (highs in the 60s), then falling behind a dry cold front and upper trough moving through late Saturday into Saturday night.
Cold front has moved east this evening with drier and cooler air advecting across the forecast area. Beneath the upper low, light rain showers and low clouds are occurring area-wide this evening. PoPs and clouds decrease late tonight and Friday morning as the upper low swings east of the region. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 40 65 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 37 62 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 37 62 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 33 60 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 10.
For early this morning, have maintained the ongoing Freeze Warning, though based on 05z temperatures/dewpoints, am not overly confident that freezing conditions will be widespread within the warning area. However, with clear skies and light winds, good radiational conditions will prevail for the next several hours, and some spots could briefly touch the freezing mark before sunrise. A brief warmup is expected Saturday with afternoon highs rebounding into the mid-upper 60s across North Texas and the low 70s over Central Texas.
Upper trof pivots eastward over the southeast US overnight. A flat mid- level ridge sets up and extends from the southwest Atlantic to across the Gulf Friday and Friday night. Highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s northwest of I-65 will be some 8 to 13 degrees below normal for late October. Clear skies, light winds and dry conditions Friday night support effective radiational cooling processes with overnight lows dipping down into the lower to mid 40s over the interior and lower 50s closer to the coast.
For early this morning, have maintained the ongoing Freeze Warning, though based on 05z temperatures/dewpoints, am not overly confident that freezing conditions will be widespread within the warning area. However, with clear skies and light winds, good radiational conditions will prevail for the next several hours, and some spots could briefly touch the freezing mark before sunrise.
Highs today wl rmn below seasonal norms, with readings topping out in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Another chilly night is in store tonight with low ranging fm the mid 30s to the lower 40s. The progressive upr lvl flow pattern wl allow a new CDFNT wl drop SEWD thru much of the state Sat ngt, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air to close out the weekend.
Current water vapor satellite imagery is showing a trough of low pressure spinning along the coast of British Columbia. Impacts will be increased winds with a cold front associated with this system and some precipitation. The good news is that elevated winds will mix the lower atmosphere. Precipitation associated with todayâs system will form along the cold front and fall in the form of rain. Flow aloft shifts to the northwest ahead of building high pressure to the west.