Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and above normal temperatures today. Low level winds are forecast from the east that may become breezy at times and combining with the low relative humidity will create critical fire weather conditions especially along the east slopes of the WA/OR cascades into this evening and the RFW will continue for this region. As the ridge drifts east tonight. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be unseasonably warmer and climb into the 90s but may be impacted some by the smoke. As the dry high pressure system slips further away from the two state area. moisture tries to rap around the high and move north toward our area Sunday night.
638 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Today and tonight) A complex upper-level pattern remains in place over the US with post- TC Kay off the SW coast of California, a low hanging out on the Gulf coast, and an upper trough over the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is positioned over the Texas Panhandle from north of Bootleg to Amarillo to near Canadian as of 3 am. This cold front is expected to continue south and will be through much of the area by around noon. The upper trough to our north and Post TC Kay to our west are expected to continue pushing mid-level moisture towards the area throughout today. Thunderstorms should become showers by late in the evening as the cold front pushes through, and much of the CAPE is depleted.
Best chances for areas of fog are the lower elevations of the Wind River Basin between Lander and Riverton, and in and around Casper as well as across Yellowstone Park. Light winds and clear skies are thanks mostly to a building ridge to our southwest. Freeze Warnings remain in place across the western valleys as temps radiate out into the low 30s and upper 20s by sunrise.
Coastal areas will also see more marine influence with cooler afternoon temperatures and areas of morning low clouds and patchy fog.
612 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front, currently located across northwestern Oklahoma, will continue to move southeast through the region Saturday. The cold front extends through the central Plains and is associated with an upper level trough/cyclone that will continue moving east and intensify. Quickly clearing skies behind the shower development will rapidly increasing the overnight surface cooling, with lows dropping well into the low 50s and possibly some upper 40s in northern Oklahoma.
The southern stream cut-off low persists across the Gulf of Mexico. The regional 12Z RAOBs sampled rising heights across FL and the northern Gulf Coast, even within the core of the upper low. The KKEY RAOB sampled 30 m rises at all SGLs, highlighting the building subtropical ridge. The forecast calls for below normal (20%) chances, with highs in the lower 90s. Breezes will turn to the southeast tonight as high pressure rebuilds across Florida and the Southeast United States.
Key Points: - Showers with isolated thunderstorms move across the area today, with much cooler air moving in.
426 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Key Points: * Cold front moving through the region today is expected to create significant temperature spread from north to south today. Surface cold front has worked south towards the I-70 corridor this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected tonight across the region. As upper level trough shifts east tonight second short wave is expected to drop south out of Canada into the eastern Dakotas resulting in a cut off low developing over the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Dry north to northwest winds should allow for significant mixing on Sunday, but cooler temperatures aloft should keep high temperatures 5-7 degrees below normal. The below normal temperatures are not expected to last however, as upper level ridge across the west builds into the central US by mid- week.
406 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 SUMMARY: The highest PoP chances persist over Price and Iron Counties today as the stationary front continues to produce numerous rain showers early this morning.
316 AM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 High pressure begins to slowly build back over the region this weekend. Lows tonight will still be in the 40s for most locations with some 30s likely in the low-lying areas around Livingston and in the Harlowton area.
654 AM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 High pressure will continue to drift east of the area today as low pressure organizes to the west.
1030 AM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 High pressure will continue to drift east of the area today as low pressure organizes to the west.
Short-term models indicated that cloudiness will be rather spotty through tonight across our region, and most prevalent east of the MS River, as a Gulf low pressure system begins its trek up the MS River valley and weakens over time. After daybreak Sun, developing PVA across the region and an approaching surface cold front from the west are expected to trigger better coverage of showers and tstms. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible mainly in the western half of the region in the late afternoon as cooler and much drier air begins to sweep into the region.
442 AM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Upper trof over the Pacific Northwest will spread east through the weekend bringing warming temperatures to the region.
06Z surface data has the strong cold front running from northeast Wisconsin, to Lamoni, IA and then southwest into the Oklahoma panhandle. The cold front should reach the Mississippi river around mid-morning and clear the area by late afternoon. It will be much cooler with overnight lows mainly in the 50s. An elongated low to mid level Fgen band of rain, moderate to heavy at times with possibly embedded thunder, will continue to shift eastward through the area on Sunday as the elevated warm, moist conveyor belt is shunted eastward ahead of an approaching closed upper low. Sunday afternoon and evening should transition to spotty showers and possibly intermittent light rain/drizzle with any low clouds as the low move into the region.
(The rest of today and tonight) The progression of the much advertised cold front and its impacts on eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in the short term remain a focus today, in addition to the increase in deep layer moisture and afternoon thunderstorm potential across parts of western Arkansas today in association with the upper low in Louisiana.
The persistent upper level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to start to weaken today as a longwave trough swings through the northern plains and into the Midwest. At the surface, the low over the Gulf of Mexico has broadened out to an open inverted trough, with southerly flow continuing over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The flood watch remains in effect through this evening for coastal counties from Sarasota County north through the Nature Coast, although the highest flooding threat will be for areas that are already saturated from heavy rains in the last couple of days.
616 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Today through Sunday) Mid-level trough axis extends from a low over Louisiana to the southwest Gulf of Mexico with 500mb ridging noted over western Texas. As for Sunday, the atmosphere dries out even more as the mid-level trough lifts northeast and high pressure builds a bit eastward.
408 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Short-term models indicated that cloudiness will be rather spotty through tonight across our region, and most prevalent east of the MS River, as a Gulf low pressure system begins its trek up the MS River valley and weakens over time. After daybreak Sun, developing PVA across the region and an approaching surface cold front from the west are expected to trigger better coverage of showers and tstms. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible mainly in the western half of the region in the late afternoon as cooler and much drier air begins to sweep into the region.
Elsewhere, another night of very warm temperatures persists with current readings remaining in the 80s to lower 90s across the warmer foothill thermal belts.
1201 PM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Atmospheric moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay will be responsible for elevated rain chances this weekend.
- Cooler and drier air continues to settle in on Sunday. Forecast Thoughts: A deep mid latitude trough continues to advance through the northern Plains with the southern flank extending into Nebraska and northern Kansas. But, from here, should be mostly beneficial light to moderate rainfall for the balance of the afternoon into the early evening before coming to an end again from west to east with passage of the H5 trough. High temps on Sunday should top out in the 70s with dewpoints falling into the low 50s and upper 40s.
As mentioned previously, an approaching upper trough will cut off just to the southwest of the CWA. The low should become fairly stacked and hence not particularly baroclinic. This in turn could produce significant pivoting/folding of the mid level thermal gradient north/northeast of the low, leading to substantial frontogenesis Sunday night.
1225 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Key Points: * Cold front moving through the region today is expected to create significant temperature spread from north to south today. Surface cold front has worked south towards the I-70 corridor this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected tonight across the region. As upper level trough shifts east tonight second short wave is expected to drop south out of Canada into the eastern Dakotas resulting in a cut off low developing over the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Dry north to northwest winds should allow for significant mixing on Sunday, but cooler temperatures aloft should keep high temperatures 5-7 degrees below normal. The below normal temperatures are not expected to last however, as upper level ridge across the west builds into the central US by mid- week.
Air mass is pretty dry and several spots in western ND dropped below freezing this morning. Warming quickly tomorrow as upper ridging builds into the Northern Plains and the trough cuts off as an upper low well to our southeast.
Afternoon temperatures will be much warmer than Saturday, but still quite pleasant, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Ensembles this Saturday morning are in good agreement with a developing upper level ridge over the western United States this weekend moving across the Rockies early in the work week. The upper ridge will then cross the Central United States mid to late week.
Beyond the colder start Sunday, temperatures will trend up as the upper ridge builds across the west for strong subsidence in place for predominately clear skies and temperatures below normals and in the 70s during the day and overnight lows mainly in the 40s.
1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 The cold front is currently making its way into northwestern OK late this morning, with a few showers now developing across Harper and Woods Counties. (Today and tonight) A cold front, currently located across northwestern Oklahoma, will continue to move southeast through the region Saturday. The cold front extends through the central Plains and is associated with an upper level trough/cyclone that will continue moving east and intensify. Quickly clearing skies behind the shower development will rapidly increasing the overnight surface cooling, with lows dropping well into the low 50s and possibly some upper 40s in northern Oklahoma.
Above normal temperatures will return after the cool few days under the upper low influence, most notably during the day as the dry air mass will still favor comfortably cool overnights.
The highest QPF will be across the Fox Valley and east- central WI this evening into Sunday, with 24-hour rain amounts ranging from about one- quarter to three- quarters of an inch.
(This evening through Sunday night) A pre-frontal trough/wind shift continues to move across Oklahoma this afternoon. The cold air is lagging behind the initial wind shift with the actual cold front/secondary surge ~3 counties to the northwest. The cold front will continue to advance to the southeast tonight with a cooler and drier air mass in its wake.
236 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Dry and stable air will continue to filter into the area tonight into Sunday as an upper level low pressure drifts southeast.
222 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Today through Sunday) As the cut off low parked over the northern Gulf of Mexico continues to churn, the ridge over New England amplifies with high pressure continuing to strengthen at the surface. With the warm tropical airmass overrunning the cooler layer of air within the wedge, more rounds of showers accompanied by a low cloud deck are anticipated today for the forecast area. A low pressure system develops over the midwest and the ridge over New England begins to move off the East Coast, which should help to initiate the erosion of the pesky wedge at the surface.
At this time, a cold front is located across the Texas Panhandle with an additional pre- frontal wind shift across the northern Permian Basin. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms increase across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico as the cold front approaches the region. This activity slowly shifts south along the cold front before reaching the Pecos River by morning. Cooler weather and strong, gusty northeast winds filter in behind the front leading to below normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s on Sunday.
(Today and tonight) Today, an upper level ridge over our region will get pushed southward as a trough pushes across the Central and Northern Plains. This trough will also push a cold front towards our region late Today. This afternoon, it may become just unstable enough to overcome the low-level capping inversion for a few isolated storms/showers south of I-20. Due to slight weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge, highs today should be a couple degrees lower than yesterday (low 90s). Tonight through early Sunday morning, a cold front from the north will move down through our region.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper level low will drop into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday with high amplitude ridging setting up along the spine of the Rockies resulting in northwesterly flow across West Texas. The cold front that moved through this morning is in the process of washing out across WFO Midland's northern row of counties though a slow southward drift is still indicated. Lows tonight should drop into the 50s areawide with the exception of our southeastern counties which will likely make it only into the lower 60s. Much cooler on Sunday with 70s likely though a few locations may struggle to make it out of the 60s given the cloud cover.
The cut-off low over the Gulf of Mexico will erode over the next couple of days. Mean layer ridging will make a meager comeback across Florida, discouraged by a fresh batch of lower heights digging into the Southeast US.
A cold front moves through the area late tonight into Sunday bringing widespread showers and storms. Surface analysis depicts rather weak flow positioned over the area with high pressure to the east and low pressure to our west. A cold front is positioned from central Wisconsin southward into southern Iowa and will be the focus for widespread precipitation late tonight into Sunday. The cold front will push east of the area later in the day on Sunday, filtering in cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds in its wake. It's parent upper trough looks to occlude over northern Illinois with most of the precipitation ending here locally by late Sunday afternoon or early evening as we get dry slotted.
This low will drift north on Sunday along the western shores of Lake Michigan, with a wrap around precip shield working west across southern Wisconsin.
A rather opaque canopy of clouds has helped temperatures stay on the cooler side, only in the low/mid 70s with light winds.
256 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 The main story with the forecast is today's cooler temperatures and lingering precipitation. Brought temps up slightly due to model guidance, however, a few areas may be a tad cooler. Clear skies and dry conditions are expected Sunday through mid-week as an upper level ridge moves in from the west.
225 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Upper level ridge moves into the area the next couple days bringing temperatures back to well above normal with highs once again reaching into the 80s and even a couple 90s.
A closed low over NE Louisiana continues to pull moisture northwards. By tomorrow, the closed low is expected to dissipate as the upper trough begins to swing northeast out of the region. The highest chance of rain will remain in the northeast, as the moisture return of the upper trough pushes northeastwards.
201 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 High pressure will continue to build over the region through the weekend.
1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Today through Sunday) Mid-level trough axis extends from a low over Louisiana to the southwest Gulf of Mexico with 500mb ridging noted over western Texas. As for Sunday, the atmosphere dries out even more as the mid-level trough lifts northeast and high pressure builds a bit eastward.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Weak upper trough will remain over the north-central Gulf of Mexico during the period while an upper ridge holds over the Texas Big Bend. A weak pre-frontal trough will move through the area by early Sunday morning.
(Tonight through Sunday night) A 500mb trough axis extending from a closed low over Louisiana into the southwest Gulf of Mexico with a mid-level ridge over western Texas into northern Mexico this afternoon.
Showers and some thunderstorms will occur Sunday into Sunday night ahead of a cold front that will move through the region.
Best chances for areas of fog are the lower elevations of the Wind River Basin between Lander and Riverton, and in and around Casper as well as across Yellowstone Park. Light winds and clear skies are thanks mostly to a building ridge to our southwest. Freeze Warnings remain in place across the western valleys as temps radiate out into the lower 30s and upper 20s by sunrise.
1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Pattern change has begun across the region early this morning with low level moisture surging northward due to a closed upper level low along the Gulf Coast region. However, this upper level low has begun to weaken and will eventually be absorbed by a northern stream system. By tonight an approaching cold front associated with a strong area of low pressure anchored over Hudson Bay and a deepening upper level trough over the northern/central Plains, will begin to slide to the southeast into the forecast area.
154 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 High pressure over the northeast United States and wedged down the east side of the Appalachians tonight will move off the East coast Sunday. Deep moisture around the high, will lift over a stalled front along the Gulf Coast and into the Mid Atlantic region resulting in widespread rain.
On Sunday, a cold front will gradually move southward across south central Texas during the late morning through afternoon hours. Some drier air in the low-levels will gradually move in behind the front. This along with mostly clear skies will lead to overnight lows in the lower 60s to the lower 70s.
Aloft, an upper level trough continues to dig over the eastern portions of the region, into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest with upper level ridging over the western U. For tonight, upper ridging will build over the area from the west behind the exiting closing upper low. Overall, temperatures look a bit warmer than last night, with the coldest temperatures along and east of the Highway 83 corridor. However, the spread is also not as tight and the lower half of the spread would be within Advisory criteria. With a good radiational cooling scenario with quite a bit of dry air around, we should be able to drop down close to the forecast dewpoints in the lower and mid 30s.
1156 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (The rest of today and tonight) The progression of the much advertised cold front and its impacts on eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in the short term remain a focus today, in addition to the increase in deep layer moisture and afternoon thunderstorm potential across parts of western Arkansas today in association with the upper low in Louisiana.
An upper level trough draped across the Gulf of Mexico helped to bring deep tropical moisture up from the Caribbean. By the evening hours the moisture looks to slowly push east as the upper level trough start to fill in. That means while everyone else is enjoying some drier and slightly cooler air we will be dealing with muggier conditions. A deepening trough in the Gulf of Mexico helped to bring widespread showers and storms across the Gulf Waters this morning. An upper level trough that has caused the widespread showers in the Gulf the last few days will push north today.
152 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas.
1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 SUMMARY: The highest PoP chances persist over Price and Iron Counties today as the stationary front continues to produce numerous rain showers early this morning.
Drier and more stable air will overspread the region tonight as high pressure settles over the high plains of western Kansas. We could see a record low at KRSL as temperatures fall into the lower 40s. Hot and mostly dry weather will prevail through the period as the mid/upper ridge translates eastward across the area and into the Mississippi Valley area late in the week.
Discussion: The weak upper low over the Lower Mississippi Valley gets absorbed by a stronger upper trough that drops out of the northern Plains and cuts off over the upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes region. The low level flow becomes more southerly and then southwesterly during the period, keeping considerable moisture over our area. A cold front will be approaching from the west Sunday afternoon and models indicate ML CAPE values may exceed 1000 J/kg, so expect an increase in showers and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon especially western parts of the area.
Look for surface front to move through mid state region on Sunday night as current upper level low to our southwest gets absorbed into upper level troughing as next few hours progress. Also look for lows tonight to continue to be mild with lows actually being a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values Sunday night per above mentioned surface frontal passage.
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) An upper level trough is centered over the Northern and Central Plains. An upper low is over Louisiana and Mississippi, and post tropical cyclone Kay is south of California. The upper trough to the north will dig southward today sending a cold front through the Texas Panhandle. Chances of convection will become more widespread tonight as the cold front moves into the area. High winds will be possible through Guadalupe Pass tonight into Sunday morning with the passage of the cold front so a High Wind Watch remains in effect. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 50s across portions of the mountains and Southeast New Mexico to the 70s across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande.
1225 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a well pronounced upper trough axis over the Dakotas extending southward into western Nebraska. A decent line of showers/storms was moving eastward out ahead of this upper trough. This upper trough will move slowly eastward and dig a little more south with an embedded PV wave moving across northern Kansas this afternoon, and pivoting eastward into northern Missouri by late tonight. Daytime temperatures will be much cooler especially across central/south central Kansas under the clouds and precipitation.