Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
310 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Wx map shows continued east southeast flow across the region, with an increasing pressure gradient across TX ahead of the next sfc and upper level trough to affect our region Sunday. A larger longwave mid/upper level trough moving eastward over the Central U.
237 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Looks as though we will be transitioning into a wet pattern during the short term as a deep mid/upper level low pressure system and it's associated cold front move ever so slowly through the MS River Valley. Some rains will also linger behind the cold front Sunday night, but the heavier rainfall should shift just east of the region after midnight.
238 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Breezy and mild conditions this afternoon as pressures fall ahead of the approaching front/upper trough in the Central Plains.
The airmass associated with this high has dew points in the teens and 20s. The Panhandles will be in a northwest flow aloft as a low pressure develops over the eastern U. and high pressure builds across the western U. This northwest flow will bring an occasional cold front through the Panhandles this week.
GOES-16 channels 8, 9 and 10 continue to indicate a robust mid/upper trough moving into the Rockies early this morning while KGLD WSR-88D shows a cold front beginning to impact northwest Kansas. This mid/upper trough is progged to emerge over the Central Plains states late in the day and into the overnight hours. As it does, the cold front will become the focus for deep moist convection. storms are expected to be east of the area by 12Z Sun with a cooler and drier airmass in their wake.
Overnight lows at the beaches will be similar to the past few mornings (low to mid 70s), and noticeably warmer inland (low to mid 60s). Rain chances will be slightly higher than today as the upper level ridge moves east.
/issued 359 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Easterly flow will continue over the region as the remnants of the frontal boundary draped over the Bahamas and Cuba give way to high pressure building over the southeastern United States. A surge of moisture from the tropicals will round the ridge and push across southern Florida, the Florida Straits, and Cuba today into Sunday, with a warm front developing as the moisture surges northward.
300 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains, w/the axis moving out of far west Texas and entering our CWA at 18Z. As leeside troughing moves ESE into the Central/Southern Plains, sfc flow is veering to SW. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupes, but westerlies should drop off rapidly there as the trough axis passes, and the warning will be allowed to expire at issuance time for this package. As the trough moves thru, models bring 40+kts of 0- 6km shear with it, so anything that develops will likely go severe, w/large hail/damaging winds likely. The cold front will enter the nrn zones by 03Z, and fropa KMAF around 04Z, at which time the triple point will be well east of the area.
First significant cold front of the season will bring cooler Thru Tonight. Low level flow will veer southeast as high pressure pushes seaward into the western atlc. The very dry mid levels will take some time to moisten but a little cooler temps aloft may support isolated storms during the afternoon across the north.
Rain chances will increase late tonight and into early Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. The cold front currently has not moved into TX just yet, but is progged to be a fast moving cold front. As the cold front moves into the CWA, convection should increase across the NE CWA and shift south and southeast rapidly through the morning, reaching the coast between 15-18Z. due to a 60KT upper jet, strong low level convergence and the main trough axis moving across the region. The trough axis is expected to be just east of the area once the front moves toward the Coastal Bend, thus less chc of TSRA's farther south. Cooler and drier airmass will filter into the area behind the front.
Precipitation will intensify through the overnight hours and continue through Sunday morning before gradually decreasing and becoming more favored over the higher terrain from north to south Sunday afternoon and evening. This will limit any accumulating snow to the highest mountain passes. Gusts up to 50 mph will be possible on exposed ridges by mid day Sunday.
/issued 438 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Another mild day for the Midsouth today, accompanied by increased humidity and wind speeds, ahead of an approaching upper level trof. The upper trof will make only slow eastward progress today, before additional energy arrives from the central Rockies tonight. This additional energy will drop into the base of the trof and become cut-off from the northern branch segment over the upper Midwest Sunday afternoon.
Cross sections show about 40 knot cross mountain flow which should result in peak gusts near 60 mph over the higher mountains and exposed ridges. Otherwise forecast on track for warmer temperatures given warm advection and downslope flow.
A strong cold front extending from the western Great Lakes southward into eastern Oklahoma continues to move closer to the area tonight. It does continue to develop a strong upper low on the southern end of the front.
Strong south winds and areas of MVFR cigs will persist through the afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front stretched across west central KS into the OK panhandle late this morning. one along the advancing cold front across KS/northern OK and another in the vicinity of the triple point in southwest OK/northwest TX.
The upper level ridge axis is well east of us now and that has allow a lot of cirrus to spill over the top of the ridge into the forecast area.
1104 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 A cold front will move through the region today. An upper trough will move across the area on Saturday.
Could possibly see a bit of development along this boundary by early afternoon as it begins to move northward as a warm front. Another vigorous wave dropping into the Northern Plains will force a cold front south across the Plains late today and this evening.
A weakness in the upper ridge over the region helped to trigger some thunderstorms over the Sierra yesterday and continues to move moisture and a few clouds westward across our area in the cyclonic flow around the feature.
Highs are expected to be run a degree or two warmer than yesterday, but still within a few degrees of normal for this time of year.
HIgh pressure iun place across the area will keep conditions dry with only some haze evident on satellite. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Flat upper ridge pushing east from the northern Rockies today will pull a hot and dry airmass out of the Great Basin. The Northeast Montana forecast is picked up Saturday evening with zonal flow aloft and a dry cold front having passed through the area during the day.
Look for one more day of minor warming today as a ridge of high pressure continues to build into our region. Only a few minor adjustments made to this morning's forecast as the low clouds have managed to progress inland. With a building ridge just offshore, this morning's 12Z Oakland sounding shows increasing 500 mb heights compared to 24 hours ago. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure will move across our region today which will lead to a few degrees of warming. Big question will be how much the marine layer will change with the low overhead. High pressure continues to compress the marine layer this morning with tops now down to 1500 ft. SFO Bridge Approach. Increasing northwest winds through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region.
/issued 354 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/ Drier air is beginning to work into the Mid-South early this morning as a weak cold front slowly moves through the area.
The sounding this morning indicates slightly less influence from the passing high pressure aloft. The low level temperature profile is warm, about 90% in the climatology, and will mix down to hot surface conditions today. An upper level ridge that was centered near the northern Gulf of Mexico has been suppressed by a trough thats moving across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Strong daytime heating and decreased subsidence will allow for afternoon thunderstorms to develop, with higher coverage in northern portions of the forecast area that are closer to the trough. Model soundings indicate an inverted-V profile in the lower levels which suggests that the main threat with storms will be downburst winds. A secondary trough will dip out of Canada into the Northern Plains tonight and cross the Great Lakes Saturday.
Well developed upper low on WV imagery will move from central to western Cuba while the axis of a mid to upper level inverted trough extends northward into central Florida. Impressive upper level winds out of the east are occurring to the north of the low, with 250 mb speeds around 50 knots forecast over our southern areas. Additionally, some drier and cooler mid level air associated with the trough aloft is shown affecting southern sections. Axis of Atlantic high pressure ridge is forecast to nudge north into the central waters.
717 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 A cold front will move through the region today.
A pre-frontal trough is located ahead of the front extending down into Tennessee. At upper- levels, Central Alabama is located between a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge along the Gulf Coast. This is due to capping aloft (caused by 700 mb temperatures around +11 C), weak forcing (only slight height falls present as the ridge center retrogrades to near Houston), and drying through the column (caused by advection of drier air aloft. They should range from the upper 60s in the typically cooler spots to the low 70s. An upper trough moves eastward through the Midwestern states on Saturday as a broad upper-level low retrogrades westward through the Gulf of Mexico. Low-level ridging is in place across the Southeastern US with northerly flow making its way into Central AL.
Scattered showers with isolated thunder will continue into the midday, especially points east of Pittsburgh as a cold front slowly moves east. Moisture continues to surge northward ahead of the cold front, re-enforcing very muggy conditions and fueling these showers. Tonight, some clearing will be realized, but we will remain under the influence of the upper trough. Dry and cooler tonight.
High pressure ridging will build back once again across the forecast area today. This will result in rising heights and afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The ridge breaks down once again on Saturday as another Pacific front moves across the forecast area during the morning.
The latest trends are showing this convection not really gaining much intensity as the low level jet weakens later this morning. Later today a cold front will move southward through NE and reach the area around mid day. In fact the current convective complex over the panhandles could move into central OK and disrupt the moisture return in the lower levels. If storms are able to form along the cold front they will move through east central KS during the evening and likely exit around midnight.
/EC/ Upper level heights will begin to increase over the region on Saturday as an upper trough pushes towards the Atlantic Coast, while a broad mid level ridge remains centered over the ArkLaTex region. However, the decision was made to go towards the lower end of guidance and keep highs in the low to mid 90's due to possible afternoon convection and a very moist atmosphere.
1055 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Abundant sunshine prevails across central Illinois this morning: however, mid and high clouds associated with low pressure over western Iowa will spill into the Illinois River Valley this afternoon. Quiet weather expected for a short time today as a narrow ridge of high pressure drifts eastward. Temperatures will still remain on the warmer side, mainly mid 80s, although dew points in the 60s will make it more comfortable.
1026 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 The main update to the morning forecast was to increase high temperatures a bit along the coast where southwest winds will help temperatures climb into the lower 90s this afternoon before the sea breeze arrives.
823 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 The region will be between high pressure to the Southeast, and a trough to the North Today.
A few showers or storms remain possible, but given the low chances involved, will not mention in the aviation forecast at this point.
Interesting to note that some of the parameters associated with landspouts or very weak tornadoes are showing up on the low end. By Saturday morning, this high is already departing to the southeast, thus allowing for southerly winds and much warmer air to move into the region.
Cold front bi-secting the area will bring gradual relief in the form of lowered dewpoint temperatures. Will keep chance PoPs lagging behind the current precipitation edge along the cold front. Tonight, some clearing will be realized, but we will remain under the influence of the upper trough. This, and the lowered freezing level to near 10kft should be enough to pose at least a marginal severe threat in the afternoon hours.
Frontal dynamics and moisture look limited toward central GA today so the pops have been kept in the low chance range.
However, thunderstorm chances will return overnight and Saturday as an upper system pivots across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Less convergence along the western extend of southeastward moving weak cold front and mid-level height rises/QG vector divergence is also working against our chances. ) development across north-central and northeast Oklahoma with a weak cold front that could approach late this evening or overnight.
A low pressure trough has begun to spin just off the California coast.
Temperatures should not change much from yesterday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s on the Caprock and mid to upper 90s off.
At the surface, weak Bermuda high pressure ridge axis slowly moves north and holds over the FL Peninsula.
517 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Upper level analysis shows a wave pushing through the northern plains, with a ridge building over the western CONUS, and northwest flow over the CWA. As the upper ridge shifts over the region, weather will become dry and warm. The thermal ridge axis will cross the CWA Saturday, and temperatures will warm into the 90s. At the upper levels, a Canadian trough will begin to flatten the ridge, placing the northern plains in zonal flow. A cold front will push into northwestern SD during the afternoon, creating some breezing winds there.
1029 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Currently - High pressure extends across central Florida, resulting in light mostly east breezes. Short Term Update - The ridge across Florida will likely be bifurcated today by heating over the peninsula. Ridging across Florida will maintain light mostly east breezes across Keys waters this afternoon.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail today as 500mb subtropical ridge across the northwest Gulf of Mexico provides subsidence across the area this afternoon. /issued 355 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb subtropical ridge across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today will move westward across the Texas coast Saturday.
/Issued 316 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/ An upper level short wave trough moving into the northwest CWA early this morning will slowly move southeast across the Panhandles today. On Saturday, the center of the upper level ridge will be over southeast Texas. The upper level ridge will shift to the southeast U.
With zonal flow aloft, low-level mixing and instability to be sufficient to keep temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across most areas.
Otherwise Thunderstorm continue to slowly expand into eastern ND as a weak low pressure system tracks across the area. Additional convection which appears more forced by the H5 trof will drop from southwest MB and merge with convection across the Devils Lake Basin through the early morning hours. West central MN will stay a bit cooler and cloudier in scattered showers. with highs rising only into the lower 70s.
Showers and storms are expected to redevelop later this morning as the cold front approaches. Then, a dry airmass follows behind the front tonight with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 60s (a change from lows in the low 70s) as clouds completely clear. Dry, sunny, and warm conditions should prevail on Saturday as a dampened ridge shifts westward across the Southeast with daytime highs in the low 90s.
A weak cold front is currently draped along I-40 with dewpoints north of the boundary in the mid 60s while along the Alabama border, dew points are still in the low 70s.
Otherwise, skies were clear over E Iowa/NW Illinois and temps were in the lower to middle 60s. Temps will be the warmest along and south of the low. Thunderstorm Chances: Forecast dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s aren't overly impressive. However, with the trough and associated height falls/ cooling aloft overspreading E Iowa/NW Illinois through the day, SBCAPE is progged to peak in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Intuitively this makes sense, because further to the south the storms tap into the higher sfc-based instability.
726 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Aviation A breezy and cooler day with considerable clouds is in store thanks to a low pressure system centered near Sault Ste Marie.
A chance for isolated/scattered showers/storms today across northern Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin under partly sunny skies today, then warmer and mostly sunny on Saturday. Warmer Saturday as a mid-level ridge building across the Great Plains leads to broad-scale subsidence, though scattered diurnally driven afternoon "fair weather" Cu expected.
722 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 A warm front will approach from the southwest today and will gradually push east of the region tonight. A slow moving cold front will cross the region Saturday.
Today Through Saturday Night All quiet this morning across the CWA as more stable and slightly cooler air has moved into the state. with the highest values across SRN sections of the state.
Very little to mention in the short term forecast as high pressure continues to dominate the region.
NW flow and drier and cooler air will filter in with clouds beginning to clear through the afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 69 90 70 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 88 67 / 40 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 67 88 67 / 30 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 64 87 61 / 30 10 0 0.
High pressure will build south into the mid-MO Valley tonight, potentially leading to patchy fog. A quasi-zonal, mid-level flow pattern is forecast to develop across the northern tier of states this weekend, supporting southerly low-level winds, increasing moisture content and warmer temperatures.
Look for one more day of minor warming today as a ridge of high pressure continues to build into our region. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure will move across our region today which will lead to a few degrees of warming. Big question will be how much the marine layer will change with the low overhead. High pressure continues to compress the marine layer this morning with tops now down to 1500 ft. SFO Bridge Approach. Increasing northwest winds through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region.
1022 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 At 10 AM around the Mid-South, temperatures are generally in the lower 80s with most of the region experiencing sunny conditions. /issued 354 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/ Drier air is beginning to work into the Mid-South early this morning as a weak cold front slowly moves through the area.
Fairly warm temperatures are expected today as an approaching cold front is slow to push through western Kansas. A southwest and eventually a westerly downslope flow will set up across southwest Kansas drawing warmer air into the area. Should expect to see highs reaching the lower to mid 90s(F) this afternoon. A quickly returning southeasterly upslope flow and sufficient moisture/instability will set the stage for potential thunderstorms in the vicinity of a lee side trough each day as low/mid level lapse rates steepen each afternoon.
Upper-level trough was noted in the Canadian prairie provinces.
/issued 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Currently, upper level ridging extends from the central/southern plains west to the southern California coast, with a high centered near southern KS/northern OK. This should suppress convection over most of the northern half of the forecast area, while the slow moving trough extending from northern Mexico into the southern half of Texas will again result in a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.
Dry with temperatures 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, reaching to the mid-90s in the lower valleys and mid-80s in the mountain valleys.
This shift inherited an advisory for Trego and Ellis County and this looks pretty good, although Trego may fall just below as a model consensus of dewpoints show them dropping to the lower to mid 60s by 21z when the 100-degree temperatures occur.
The current forecast on track for the afternoon hours with just enough cold air aloft, low level moisture, and weak cyclonic flow for some isolated convection on the higher terrain features.
/issued 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Brownsville radar currently shows a few showers drifting north across the lower Texas Gulf waters. High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to triple digits across the west.
1000 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 RAP40 analysis shows central FL under an H100-H70 col with the Atlc ridge axis draped over the northern Bahamas/south FL Peninsula. H50 temps btwn -6C/-7C temps are unremarkable for midsummer, though H70 readings arnd 9C suggest weak thermal ridging in place. Atlc ridge axis positioned over the nrn Bahamas/south FL peninsula will generate a light to gentle S/SW breeze over the lcl Atlc.
Upper level high will be centered to the southeast of Colorado. Scattered storms are expected to begin shortly afternoon over the higher terrain with isolated storms possible starting mid afternoon east of the higher terrain. The center of the upper level ridge is expected to shift eastward on Wednesday, located near the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles at that time.
945 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 RAP40 analysis shows central FL under a weak H100-H70 trough with the Atlc ridge axis blanketing south FL and the Bahama Bank. Lcl wind profilers map the trough axis quite well through the sfc-5KFT lyr with N/NW winds at KJAX/KTBW veering to S/SW at KMFL/KMLB/KXMR. on the ascending right flank of the trough, Gulf Stream convection has been very active in the predawn hrs. 5C indicates thermal ridging has strengthened a touch. Atlc ridge axis positioned over south FL/nrn Bahamas will combine with a weak trough over central/north FL to generate a light to gentle S/SW breeze over the lcl Atlc.
A few storms will be possible this afternoon across the higher terrain. /issued 243 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ The subtropical ridge is centered INVOF NE OK and as such deep easterly mid level flow is in place across the CWFA. Meanwhile mid level heights are rising today and the easterly flow will try to keep the mid level theta-e ridge axis in a wwd position and thus PoPs. The pattern changes into the weekend with upper ridge building to w with the possibility of a wwd moving mid level low and or as inverted trof INVOF Sonora, MX brings increase moisture to the Trans Pecos. Mostly this continues to favor PoPs across the wrn CWFA verses drier/warmer to the east.
This will continue as the upper ridge over the central plains bridges with higher heights over the Four Corners.