Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will begin to approach the northern sites towards the end of the period slightly increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. A broad, steep, and stagnant upper ridge centered over the western Plains will continue to slowly build eastward into the ArkLaMiss as the day continues resulting in 500 mb heights increasing to around 593dm. Moisture will begin to increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.
The ridge axis does weaken a bit and with the boundary layer profiles remaining very warm/moist the areal coverage may be slightly higher. Meanwhile, the high res windows keep the area dry with the convection remaining to the north through sunrise Friday. The Friday model proximity soundings indicate a potentially unstable airmass with some contribution from a mid level jet as the eastern CONUS trough deepens. Tough call on the Friday max temperatures but it won't take much to reach upper 80s/near 90 so trended toward the higher end of the blends. This will provide us the opportunity to look forward to a dry and cooler late July weekend. Daytime highs will be in the low/mid 80s while overnight lows cool towards the low/mid 60s! And. As the upper- level trough to our east shifts into the Atlantic, northwesterly flow aloft will weaken.
126 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday as a cold front and upper level low pressure system move through. However, overall precipitation along the cold front remains somewhat unorganized. There should be a bit of a lull in precipitation Thursday night as the surface front plunges south, but precipitation will redevelop as an upper level low drops into the Ohio Valley on Friday and helps to restrengthen low pressure along the front.
Clear skies with light winds through the night will bring cool overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Lee side troughing and southerly flow will produce warmer conditions west of the Missouri River than in the remainder of the CWA. The low-level jet early Friday morning may result in some slight precip chances in the far western CWA, so added pops in Western Corson and Dewey County to reflect that. With building high pressure in the lower levels over the Midwest, the warmest temperatures aloft will be in the western high plains. The mid-level ridge will also begin to intensify resulting in west to northwest flow over the region.
Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data depicted a closed upper low near James Bay with an associated trough trailing southwest into the mid MO Valley. In the low levels, 18z mesoanalysis suggests that the primary surface boundary stretches from central IA through east-central NE before linking with an area of low pressure over north-central KS. On Friday into Friday night, a weak disturbance will crest the mid-level ridge axis across the northern Plains before turning southeast into the lower MO Valley.
The pesky upper low over northern California and Nevada continues to slowly make its exit eastward early this morning.
401 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 (Today and Tonight) The upper high, which is currently centered over the southern Plains, will shift slightly to the west over New Mexico and Colorado during the next 24 hours. Highs this afternoon will be similar to yesterday, but should be about a degree warmer across our central and northern counties where an upward creep in 850mb temperatures is indicated. A weak cold front will move south across the Texas Panhandle and the northern half of Oklahoma today.
401 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Stg upper ridging producing one more day of hot and humid wx across the area. Amplifying upper lvl pattern will produce seasonally stg northerly flow aloft, shifting upper ridge further wwrd.
A weakening upper level low will move northeast across the area today, helping to initiate one last round of showers and thunderstorms before it departs tonight. Most of this activity will be on the Idaho side of the border, but convection cannot be ruled out in the higher terrain of Baker County and along the Oregon/Idaho border, especially early in the afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal today before warming rapidly to the upper 90s in the lower elevations tomorrow as upper level ridging develops. Sufficient moisture will remain for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon in the higher terrain, once again mainly on the Idaho side.
Strong cold front will push into northeast Oklahoma by mid morning Thursday, moving to the Interstate 44 corridor around Noon. Temperatures behind the front will quickly fall below freezing with a brief window for a light wintry mix directly behind the boundary. As main upper trough axis moves across Thursday afternoon, a band of light snow will spread into northeast Oklahoma. Any freezing rain that develops should also be light with only a few hundredths possible across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Approaching Canadian cold front definitely means business this afternoon.
Tonight Through Thursday Upper low pressures are near Florida and over the Rockies. The western low will move into the Plains tonight and a secondary trough will move into Arkansas Thursday. Rain chances will slowly increase tonight, then more so during the day Thursday as the second trough approaches.
Expect a few lingering showers today as moist air and a weak warm front approach from the west. Lingering showers can be expected through late this morning as a weak warm front approaches from the west. Afternoon highs are forecast in the upper 50s for most of the area with some locations around Monterey Bay reaching the low 60s. Temperatures are much cooler this morning with most areas in the 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will begin building over the Eastern Pacific. A weak warm front moving across today will keep a slight chance of light showers through the day, but not much rainfall is expected. The upper ridge will strengthen along the coast by the coming weekend bringing in drying conditions and warmer temperatures.
300 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows cold front now exiting far southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area, with much colder air quickly pushing in behind it. Thursday will be cold and dry with highs ranging from the single digits over northwest SD to the 20s over the higher elevations of northeast WY and the Black Hills.
Issued by National Weather Service CARIBOU ME 343 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 High pressure will move east tonight. A warm front will slowly cross the region later Thursday into Thursday night.
The ones that were made included smoothing the qpf amounts in southern IL, where the blend created a dearth between the higher qpf to the south and east, and the upper Low influenced snowfall to the northwest.
345 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with cold front dropping down through western Minnesota into southeast South Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough axis dipping through central Montana southward towards central New Mexico. Widespread snow has developed over our area ahead of the upper trough, while gusty north to northwest winds continue along with falling temperatures behind the potent cold front. snow will continue to fall into this evening, and will start to gradually taper off over western locations into portions of central North Dakota as the trough axis slides into the area.
Drier weather and a warming trend will return Thursday into the weekend as high pressure builds back over the area. /329 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018/ Ridging slowly rebuilds near the Pacific Coast and expands eastward beginning Thursday.
IFR/MVFR ceilings are forecast to spread back across the CWA ahead of a cold front expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma Thursday morning. ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front. areas of IFR/MVFR cloud cover were common over Southeast Oklahoma with high clouds lifting northeast over the region with the approaching upper low. high clouds are expected to continue to pass through the region with southerly surface winds gusting 20-30+mph as the westward upper low continues to track eastward toward the Southern Plains.
These conditions are expected to continue overnight and until the passing of a cold front Thursday. Vicinity showers and isolated thunderstorms will be associated with a cold front which is expected to impact CLL beginning around 12Z and move from the NW to the SE through the afternoon hours Thursday.
Cold front and pcpn are now well east of us leaving partly cloudy skies over our area. A weak trough will bring a slight chance of rain and snow showers today to far southeast Oregon and the Owyhee mountains in Idaho, but the rest of our CWA will be dry. Warm front will spread more rain and snow over the area Thursday except near the Nevada border. A cold front continues to progress across the forecast area. A warm front and associated upper trough remain favorable to impact the area beginning Thursday morning. As the trough advances, some areas could potentially see moderate snowfall through the afternoon, with some of the best snow noted over the West Central and Boise Mountains in Idaho.
The surface cold front will move through Thursday late afternoon and evening. There may be a period of sleet and freezing drizzle mid afternoon in south-central WI and during the evening commute in eastern WI. Temperatures in the lowest 2000kt drops rapidly during this time while there is a warm nose around 4kft.
60 inches, which would lead to an area of 5 to 8 inches of snow (given stronger winds snow ratios should be toward the lower end of the spectrum). High pressure overhead Fri night will offer optimum radiative cooling conditions and resultant low temps colder than 20 below throughout the forecast area. Some warm air advection Sun will allow for daytime highs edging over the zero degree mark as a trough swings down within the NW flow aloft. This will be followed by a second instance of potential snowfall for Sun, associated with the previously mentioned upper trough and modest warm air advection. By Wed western ridging will edge closer to our area, bumping temps up toward or beyond seasonal expectations. Cold front and strong north winds moving through the region this afternoon.
1056 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018 Upper analysis shows a trough in the northern stream coming into phase with another trough/low pressure center in the southern stream. The combined upper trough will cross the forecast area today and tonight. A cold front extends from the Manitoba low into Montana early this morning. The cold front will sweep southward into the forecast area a little later this morning and then will move from north to south today reaching south central South Dakota later this afternoon. Post frontal lift combined with synoptic scale enhancement from the upper trough will lead to light snow across the area today into tonight.
The main changes with this forecast update are to bring temperatures more in line with current observations and to better reflect areas that could see clearing and warmer temperatures later this afternoon. Skies will remain cloudy as temperatures will be a bit warmer today. But tomorrow will see changes again in the weather as a strong cold front that is moving into the northern Rockies this morning will drop south along the east slopes of the Rockies and into Kansas around midnight tonight.
There has been enough instability over the warmer Atlantic waters to support a few lightning strikes. A subtle trough is keeping winds northeast over the western half of the service area, and east/southeast over the eastern half. The only short term change to the gridded data was to insert the possibility of thunder over the Straits during the first period, supported in part by the slow but steady advancement eastward of the upper trough overhead. A more progressive trough will swing through the southern plains dragging a front into the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
a strung out area of low pressure approaches from the west late tonight and moves across the region Thursday. Highs Thursday of well into the 40s to the lower and middle 50s. Potential for some freezing rain/drizzle Thursday evening as precip transitions to light snow. A sharpening trough over the nation's midsection will be pushing into the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night behind a strong departing cold front.
The cold front association with the upper level trough is forecast to progress across the CWA from late tomorrow morning and exiting the region by late tomorrow evening. Despite the ongoing return flow, the majority of model guidance is indicating that atmospheric destabilization will be rather limited in advance of the cold front. Therefore, severe weather is not expected with any of the thunderstorms that develop along the cold front. In the wake of the front, much cooler and drier conditions are expected as a continental polar airmass filters into the region.
205 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018 Drier weather will return to the region Thursday as high pressure builds back over the area. H5 ridging and heights in a 580-584dm range will quickly spread into the area by Thursday afternoon with corresponding anomalous warmth only lagging these higher heights to the effect that temperatures Thursday result in a near normal range.
Elsewhere overnight lows will be downright balmy with temperatures only falling to the lower 50s.
1141 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 Much warmer air will arrive later today into Thursday, with highs in the 60s for most areas.
A cold front will move south across the terminals Thursday morning, with gusty north to northwest winds developing in its wake. A cold front will approach the KABI terminal towards the end of the forecast period and will move across the terminals Thursday morning. An upper level trough over southern Arizona early this morning will approach the Texas Panhandle by late today. As the above mentioned upper trough ejects eastward across the Plains, an attendant cold front will sweep across the area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Southerly winds to begin increasing tomorrow ahead of deepening upper trough into southern plains. Decent lapse rates for this time of year, along with deep moisture and moderate low lvl wind shear will allow for a few tstms in aftn just ahead of stg arctic cold front entering Red River valley region by mid to late aftn.
Now expect most places to warm into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Another round of low clouds and fog are still expected to redevelop over the area tonight given the warm and moist air streaming in over the cooler nearshore waters.
The latest guidance from WPC focuses more on ice accumulation from freezing rain and less on significant amounts of snow. However, the main threat from this system may end up being accumulating freezing rain and sleet resulting in dangerous roadways. Rainfall totals may approach one inch before a strong cold front approaches the Mississippi River late tomorrow. but temperatures will tumble Tomorrow night with morning lows near to below freezing everywhere across the Midsouth with the exception of portions of Northeast Mississippi.
There may be perhaps brief periods of MVFR ceilings if any breaks in the low stratus can develop before 00Z Thursday. Low level pressure gradient does tighten a bit late in the day, but the resulting increase in wind speed will play more into warmer overnight lows.
/issued 1107 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/ Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Warmer air has started to lift north from the Gulf of Mexico toward the forecast area. Temperatures will be warmer as well with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. More showers will be possible tonight as warmer air continues to move into the region. On Thursday, a strong cold front will be moving across the plains and into Arkansas. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid 60s. The cold front will move through the region Thursday night producing more precipitation. Most areas will see a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet before a change over to snow.
321 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 A deep mid/upper level trough is making its way across the western CONUS and will approach Kansas front the southwest this evening and into the early morning hours tomorrow. Latest model runs are generally trending toward the trough digging further south and at a slower pace. Model soundings are in general consensus that the event will begin as a few rain showers this afternoon and evening, but switch over to snow around the midnight hour in central Kansas as a strong cold front plunges southward. Ahead of the snowfall, rain and areas of brief freezing rain are expected before making the transition over to snow.
Expect a few lingering showers through this afternoon as moist air and a weak warm front approach from the west. Lingering showers will continue this afternoon as a weak warm front approaches from the west. Temperatures around the region are currently in the low to mid 50s. Some locations around San Jose and southward may reach the low 60s over the next few hours. High pressure will continue to build over the Eastern Pacific through the end of the week, aside from a brief interruption tomorrow by a weak impulse that will pass to our north. As the upper ridge strengthens into the weekend, expect drying conditions and warmer temperatures along with patchy night and morning coastal fog in the North and East Bay valleys.
348 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 A coastal trough will shift inland tonight and Thursday.
1218 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 Another break has developed in the stratus clouds this afternoon and this should finally open the door to some of the warmer temps that the models have been hinting at the past few days. While this will cut back on heating, given that temperatures are already in the 30s and lower 40s and that there will be warm air advection today, expect highs to reach the low to mid 50s in most locations this afternoon. There will also be an increasing chance of rain across central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois overnight as low level moisture convergence increases under large scale ascent ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Expect the low clouds to continue through the period.
As the main storm system moves over eastern New Mexico and then the western Panhandle later tonight a strong cold front will move southward down the High Plains. The highly-dynamic nature to the scenario supports advisory level winds behind the front persisting through much of the day Thursday and will hoist another advisory to account for that. Finally, upper level forcing may continue with and behind the passage of the mid level trough as a strong upper level jet streak dives southward through New Mexico. Beyond Thursday, the pattern reverts to one familiar this winter, that of a western ridge and eastern trough.
Readings are already in the low to mid 60's in many spots, and tomorrow promises to be even warmer.
328 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 An area of low pressure and Arctic front will continue tracking across the region tonight through Thursday morning. Radar returns in central Nebraska will track northeast tonight with the upper level trough.
A strong cold front is expected to move into NW parts of the area overnight and arrive near the I-44 corridor around sunrise before making it through the rest of the fa by late morning/early afternoon. Strong northerly winds are also expected behind the cold front with wind gusts of 40 to around 55 mph possible across much of the fa.
areas of IFR/MVFR cloud cover were common over Southeast Oklahoma with high clouds lifting northeast over the region with the approaching upper low. high clouds are expected to continue to pass through the region with southerly surface winds gusting 20-30+mph as the westward upper low continues to track eastward toward the Southern Plains.
A strong cold front is on track to move across the area Thursday morning. The upper trough axis will swing across the area during the day and could result in some light precipitation across northern sections during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be much cooler on Thursday, with morning highs mainly in the lower and middle 50s, with temperatures falling into the 40s during the afternoon hours.
352 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 Warmer temperatures, with many highs in the 60s, are forecast for Thursday.
Thursday night the northern and southern streams will phase, pushing an upper trof axis and strong cold front into the Lower Ohio Valley.
Upper trof to our west should make its way across the state Thursday and Thursday night. Look for its associated prefrontal trof to push thru southeast Texas during the day tomorrow. The cold front itself will trail a few hours and will push thru during the late afternoon and evening.
A big ridge will keep skies mainly clear and temperatures above normal through the weekend.
400 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Upper level trough with isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday. Cooler weather midweek. Another strong upper trough/low with associated cold front this weekend. It appears the highest chance of getting wet will be across northern and western locations.
Another day of cooler than average temperatures across the plains with afternoon highs generally 5 to 10 degrees below average. Look for another dry day with much warmer temps due to the increasing downslope winds. Temps will climb into the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the eastern plains.
Reinforcing cold front has moved through and this led to winds picking back up out of the northwest over the area.
259 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week.
1124 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Deep cyclonic flow sits across the western half of the CONUS while strong upper ridging has built into the western half. A quiet day is expected today with slightly warmer temps than yesterday. Warm air advection will push in from the west tonight into Wednesday with much warmer temps expected. possibly just reaching into the low 80s.
Clear skies, dry weather and warm temperatures again today as high pressure ridging continues to dominate the pattern.
141 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 An upper ridge remains over the Western US with a trough over the east.
Some of this high altitude momentum will likely mix down to the ground across the nern corner of the CWA with the sfc based inversion breaking late this morning. Low temps tonight will be anywhere from 3-8 degs warmer, with warmest readings along the base of the foothills the result of a slightly enhanced downslope flow late tonight.
A drier and cooler airmass will prevail across the region today behind a cold front. Skies will be clear with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s across the northwest to the upper 70s across the southeast big bend.
Upper level low situated to our north has resulted in increasing cloud cover, isolated to scattered showers, and gusty westerly winds this afternoon. However, closer to the influence of the upper low, we may see some lingering showers over our northeast counties for a bit this evening.
Radar mosaic showing deformation rain associated with this low falling over our forecast area across southwest into central WI. Northwest winds on the backside of this low across our area not too bad as of yest, generally in the 10-20 mph range east of the Mississippi River and 15-25 mph across northeast IA/southeast MN. Plan on colder than normal highs with readings in the lower to middle 40s. Winds calm down this evening with mostly clear skies, but then attention turns to incoming mid-level trough after midnight/early Wednesday morning. Warm air advection kicks in Wednesday night as low pressure drops southeast from the central Canadian Plains.