Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Anomalously strong ridge aloft will remain in control of the region today and Saturday, bringing us mostly clear skies and much above normal temperatures. We will begin to experience height falls by Saturday night as cut off low over the SW CONUS begins to kick north, and as Pacific trof approaches the west coast, but airmass will remain too dry to support many clouds let alone showers.
A low pressure system in Arizona will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of Mohave County through tonight.
301 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the central states with cut-off low over southern Arizona. High cloud was starting to enter southwestern Kansas downstream of the low with clear skies elsewhere and 0Z TOP sounding rather dry through the troposphere. 9 micron satellite imagery and observations show the northern edge of the fog eroding with some northeast wind persisting in the lower few thousand feet.
322 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Early this morning high pressure was located over the Great Lakes. Main forecast concern for the short term are the temperatures as high pressure will drive the sensible weather through the period.
The low clouds also plaguing the area this morning will diminish by late morning to early afternoon as well. High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail Today into Saturday with temperatures trending slightly warmer than normal, at least during the day.
Satellite imagery suggests the upper level low pressure system was located over extreme southern AZ west of Tucson as of this writing. Given the dry air that has moved into the area and the very initial slow movement of the upper low, have lowered pops to slgt chc category for rain showers and restricted them to the far wrn sections near the TX and NM state line for today and tonight.
546 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 The weather remains quiet and unseasonably warm during the short term periods under the influence of an upper level ridge of high pressure.
A warm and moist southeast flow continues off the gulf this afternoon and between a cold front over Texas and a ridge centered over the northeast gulf coast. A secondary push of cooler and drier air will arrive Friday afternoon/early evening.
The cold front is now to the southeast of the area as a positively tilted trough stretches from NE to SW across the Appalachians. The passage of this upper level trough has lead to a few post-frontal showers showing up currently on radar. Skies will clear by mid to late morning as high pressure moves into the area. Clear skies, light winds and high pressure will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight.
A 500 hPa ridge stretching from the Southern Plains to the northern High Plains will move slowly eastward and weaken as a closed low over the far southwest CONUS moves to the Four Corners. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather across the central portions of the country as the blocking pattern continues. The first will be a slow moving upper level low trapped within the ridge.
700 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure and notably cooler air will gradually build across our region today. While this large area of high pressure will generally supply us with fair weather for the weekend, a shower cannot be ruled out east of Lake Ontario. High pressure will build from the central Great Lakes towards the lower Great Lakes today, bringing a return to dry weather. A much cooler airmass will build into the region today with highs in the mid to upper 40s in most areas, except a few degrees cooler across higher terrain. Patchy cloud cover and some wind should limit radiational cooling tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 40s across the lake plains to mid 30s across the interior.
/Today through Tonight/ High pressure has ridged into northern Iowa while a boundary is stalled over central Illinois and Missouri. High pressure will continue to build into the state the remainder of the day.
Synoptically, an upper low currently along the AZ/Mexico border has begun to lift north while southwesterly flow aloft continues across our region. The low is expected to open while lifting into the Rockies this weekend.
Ridge of high pressure will continue to bring mainly clear skies with warm. An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to move from west to east over the region from tonight through Saturday.
145 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure builds in tonight through Friday night. A weak cold front approaches the area on Saturday and moves through Saturday night.
417 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 At 300 Am, a weak cold front extended from near Alexandria LA to Bush IAH to near Cotulla, The front was becoming increasingly diffuse but there should be enough of a push to move it into the Gulf. Temps should be a few degrees cooler behind the front and with a bit more cloud cover expected.
Water vapor imagery shows a northern stream upper level trough moving out of the the Great Lakes and digging to the southeast. Meanwhile, an upper level low is spinning over the Desert Southwest, cut off from the split flow between the northern and southern stream. Surface analysis shows another surface cold front over the Mid- Mississippi Valley, with drier continental air behind it, heading southward. The northern stream upper level trough will continue to amplify as it moves east to the east coast, and this will help push a cold front from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the forecast area late this afternoon, then through the forecast area during the evening hours. Values will be somewhat cooler and less humid, but just to near climo norms, and nothing significant.
Strong high pressure ridge in control. The pattern will consist of a broad trough in the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska and a ridge east of the Divide that will slowly shift farther east. The top of the shifting ridge axis will be located well to the north in northern Canada.
Upper level troughing extends southwest from an upper level low over Quebec, while upper level ridging extends north from Texas through the Dakotas. By Saturday morning, this troughing will be located over the Western Atlantic as the upper level ridging slips eastward over the Mississippi River valley. On the surface, a cold from extends southwest from a low pressure center located southeast of Nova Scotia. The warm moist air that we have seen the past several days will be replaced with a slightly cooler and drier air mass as strong high pressure builds over the southeast U.
512 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Low pressure will exit east of the maritimes today.
Forecast through the weekend will remain quiet with a large area of high pressure dominating the eastern half of the country.
550 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build to our west today and into this weekend.
543 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A cold front was moving through central Alabama early this morning. But, this rain near the cold front will continue falling apart and be gone by sunrise. Models are in good agreement that the upper ridge builds back overhead through the weekend. Although the highs drop off, we will still remain well above normal in the 70s. The GFS seemed to have a better handle the eventual development of a closed low west of the area. At this time, leaned toward the ECMWF due to the persistent ridge and antecedent dry conditions. 88 A cold front was currently moved southward across central Alabama.
A mid to upper trough will be swinging southeastward toward the Western Atlantic by late tonight. A frontal boundary will be weakening as it moves slowly southward across Florida through early Saturday morning, not bringing a meaningful modification to the lower levels of the airmass by the time it reaches our latitude. Winds will freshen from the northeast Saturday night as broad high pressure reaches closer to the southeastern coast of the United States.
A cold front is working its way across the area this afternoon. /15/ The period will begin with a large cold core low centered over the Eastern Great Lakes with surface and upper level ridging building in across the Great Plains.
345 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows the surface cold front has exited the CWA and coastal waters. High pressure will build into the region the region over the next several days.
This cyclone will continue to slowly meander to the east late this afternoon into this evening. To the east/southeast of the cyclone center, latest objective mesoanalysis data showed anywhere from 100-250 J/kg of MLCAPE. As the low pushes east, a weakening mid-level deformation band of precipitation on the backside will slide through. KD Although the aforementioned low pressure system will have moved away from the area and will be located over the northeastern CONUS tomorrow night, it will continue to influence the upper air pattern across MO/IL as disturbances rotate around its western periphery and expand the coverage of cyclonic flow aloft.
A cold front stretches from northern Weakley County, TN to Southern Tallahatchie MS and is moving to the East at around 25mph. High pressure at the surface and a ridge building in from the West will keep us dry through the weekend.
Changes for the early eve update were primarily cosmetic as approaching low pressure is increasing rain chances for the Upper Ohio Region via moisture and ascent increases.
335 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 The quiet weather will continue through the short term period as an transitory amplified ridge works of the Rockies into the High Plains. Warm advection is beginning overhead attm as this ridge builds into the region but will really kick into gear tomorrow. Some high cloudiness is topping the ridge and will be moving through the CWA overnight with clearing toward morning. Guidance trends indicate the threat of widespread freezing temperatures becoming less probable in the critical growing areas. Would not be surprised a few low lying areas drop to just below freezing for a few hours such as around Fruita and in the UnCo River Valley.
High pressure moves over the area Thursday. Light winds and clear sky tonight along with dry airmass moving in will mean lows in the mid-upr 20s area wide tonight but temperatures rebounding into the low-mid 50s Thursday afternoon under a sunny sky.
A cold front is currently extending south/southwestward from KNEW into the Gulf of Mexico, and then further towards old Mexico.
Upper level ridging will begin moving into the area tomorrow.
/issued 1010 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Latest surface analysis shows the cold front in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya Basin extending southwestward into the outer coastal waters. Behind the front, temperatures have dropped into the low to mid 60s and a reservoir of air in the mid to upper 60s lies further to the northwest in TX. A cold front will sweep across the area this morning with skies then rapidly clearing. /issued 523 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Temperatures around the region are holding in the lower 70s ahead of the latest front that is expected through southeast Texas well before the noon hour and exiting south central Louisiana coast by the afternoon hours. Lafayette will be a bit warmer today than most locations as the front will take a bit longer to push through.
Colder air spills in tmrw night, but winds hold up and clouds will be persistent with ridge remaining to our west, despite temps dropping into 30s. Best night of radiational cooling then comes Fri night with the ridge moving in, skies clearing, and winds diminishing.
Medium Low pressure will be off to our east with a strong northerly wind max brushing the eastern section of the cwa.
As this happens, winds will gradually shift around to the south, with increasing low level moisture as a warm front tries to push in from the south. Do have the higher elevations across the south turning over to snow through the afternoon, but not expecting any accumulations by the end of the near term due to the wet/warm ground. Lapse rates in the low levels look to increase markedly during this time concurrent with 850 mb temperatures falling off toward the -4 to -7C range. For the moment, in the lower elevations, a warm ground combined with exceedingly marginal boundary layer temperatures, will likely make accumulations beyond minimal grass-centered ones very tough to muster.
SFC analysis showing trough axis moving toward the TN river now, with surge of 60+ dews ahead. After 06z, upper low will wrap-around light precip and cigs expected to drop all sites overnight but possibly improve by 18z Thu.
504 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Strong cold front is pushing through coastal areas and will quickly exit the forecast area early this evening. Much drier air and cooler air will make for rather pleasant temperatures the next few days along with some cool nights.
These showers will stay outside of our cwa thru the remainder of the afternoon as we are seeing height rises associated with the western ridge.
The upper ridge axis residing over the western CONUS will extend into Montana and directly over the forecast area overnight leading to continued clear skies and dry weather conditions. Warm temperatures and dry weather will prevail on the backside of the ridge as the upper flow turns southwest heading into Thursday.
A quieter pattern will settle in across western Kansas tonight and Thursday as a northwesterly flow aloft prevails across the high plains downstream of an approaching upper level ridge. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly strong with a +80kt prevailing across the high plains, much drier air in the lower/mid levels will limit any instability and keep precip chances out of the forecast through late Thursday afternoon. Short range models show little change to the air mass across the high plains tonight, so with decreased cloud cover, light northerly winds, and surface dewpoints falling into the 20s(F), look for lows dropping down into the 30s(F) by early Thursday morning.
Upper level ridging and surface light northerly winds will translate to a cool period tonight with lows in the lower 40s over most areas.
As this happens, winds will gradually shift around to the south, with increasing low level moisture as a warm front tries to push in from the south. Do have the higher elevations across the south turning over to snow through the afternoon, but not expecting any accumulations by the end of the near term due to the wet/warm ground.
124 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A high pressure ridge aloft extending north from the Desert Southwest, across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will bring dry conditions to the western mountains and valleys tonight and Thursday, with decreasing clouds east of the Continental Divide. The ridge is fairly dirty with mid and upper level moisture producing broken cloud cover over Idaho and the Pacific Northwest that will spread over western Wyoming tonight and Thursday.
Quiet night on tap as the northwest flow aloft weakens somewhat and the upper ridge axis nudges into western Wyoming. Most low temperatures will be near the freezing mark. Considerably warmer day as the upper ridge axis moves overhead, producing a dry and mild day with maximum temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s at lower elevations with return south winds at the surface. Expect an even more mild night as the ridge aloft moves off to our east and the flow aloft helps produce a more well mixed boundary layer and keeps minimum temperatures above freezing at most lower elevation locations.
Broad area of low pressure, 999 mb, extends from central MO to southern IL, with a warm front extending across southern IN this hour. Even outside of these storms, expect gusty winds because of the pressure gradient associated with that low pressure. In addition to the wind, expect showery conditions as moisture wraps around the upper low travelling by to our north.
The upper level low that helped kick off today's storms will move from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the lower Great Lakes Thursday. Thursday will be much cooler with post frontal conditions and extensive clouds in the cyclonic flow aloft.
Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the area tonight and temperatures will fall into the 50s with clear skies and light winds. 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west TX Thursday will provide subsidence across southwest TX Thursday through Thurs night.
Considering the low-topped nature of any convection that develops (equilibrium levels below 15 kft), small pea-sized hail will be the biggest threat from any such activity. Otherwise, activity should gradually come to an end as the late evening hours progress, with an eventual clearing trend expected from west to east by daybreak as the large upper low responsible for the recent rainfall finally shifts east.
12Z upper air analysis had the upper low located in northern Missouri, and the 20Z satellite images show the upper low around St. At the surface, high pressure is settling in from the northwest, with a relatively high pressure gradient across the region this afternoon.
329 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Mid/upper level low pressure currently moving over northern MO and southern IA this afternoon. Some of the high res models show low level cape could approach 500 j/kg, which means isolated thunder could be possible this afternoon. The high pressure should support lighter wind speeds therefore allowing for radiational cooling.
620 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A cold front will move through the area late tonight.
245 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Strong and gusty winds continue this afternoon on backside of low pressure system moving into southern Illinois. Scattered showers also continue which has likely added to some of the higher gusts as precipitation falls into drier air. High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the Southern Plains Thursday/Thursday night.
Strong potential long-track tornadoes are possible, especially over the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee given the warm frontal boundary. Besides the tornado threat, strong winds aloft, lowering freezing level, and increasing HAIL CAPES will likely produce some damaging winds and large hail up to Golfball size. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 47 55 40 / 70 80 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 47 51 39 / 60 70 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 75 47 52 39 / 60 80 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 46 49 34 / 60 80 80 60.
1105 AM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the west promises quiet weather and moderating temperatures through the middle part of the week. Despite freezing temperatures this morning, warm air advection (WAA) and sunny/mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rebound to near normal levels today. Continued WAA will prevent another freeze in the lower central valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight. Warming continues into Thursday with highs rising to near 10 degrees above normal as the ridge axis moves over the area.
expect overnight temperatures to fall to near freezing towards early Thursday morning. expect a return to mostly sunny and dry conditions across the local area as a ridge of high pressure begins to nudge in across the local area from the west. expect a generally pleasant afternoon with temperatures climbing a degree or two warmer than this afternoons readings along with much lighter winds across the local area.
Thereafter, rain will gradually end from west to east by daybreak as the cold front pushes through. Lows will range from the lower 50s northwest to lower 60s far southeast.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over Colorado from the west with the axis centered over the middle of the state by the afternoon.
316 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Strong upper low/frontal system with a severe weather threat this evening and tonight over the western zones. High pressure for the weekend. The main line of convection accompanying/slightly ahead of the cold front will enter our OH/KY areas between 00-02z this evening.
Even though a ridge of high pressure is currently over the Northern Rockies, plenty of mid and high level moisture continues to stream across the region. The ridge shifts off to the east starting tomorrow which will put the Northern Rockies into a more favorable flow pattern for increased shower activity.
208 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Upper ridging slowly moves east of the area through tonight, with the area coming under increasing southwest flow aloft Thursday.
1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will prevail through the period at TAF sites as a cold front moves across the area. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will move across the area today.
618 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Strong upper low/frontal system with a severe weather threat this evening and tonight over the western zones. High pressure for the weekend. The main line of convection accompanying/slightly ahead of the cold front will enter our OH/KY areas between 00-02z this evening.
The higher dewpoints line up well with the tornado watch that was just issued by SPC. Low pressure near Evansville IN will deepen as it moves northeast tonight, and the cold front which has just moved into western KY will surge east across the forecast area tonight. Once the thunderstorms there will be a lull, then showers will spread back across the area later tonight as wrap around moisture surges into the area as low pressure moves northeast. Lows Thursday night will be above freezing expect for the higher terrain near the VA border. As such snow accumulation is not expected except in the higher terrain.
Upper ridge building in over Colorado next 24 hours. Thursday looks mostly sunny under building high pressure.
Upper level analysis places ridge building over the western CONUS, with modest short wave sliding through the northern plains. Quiet weather with warmer temperatures Thursday as ridge works its way towards the area.
High pressure is centered over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows low over the mid MS river valley, with ridge over the western states. Strong upper jet is sliding south over the area on the east side of the ridge. High pressure will settle northeast of the area as frontal boundary settles over the Black Hills. Ridge will slide east over the Rockies and into the high plains Thursday and Thursday night. Warmer air will build in as high pressure moves east and boundary slides back northeast as a warm front.
conditions will be improving over the CWA on Thursday with clearing skies an slightly warmer aftn highs. Decent mixing should aid in pushing max temps into the low 60s.
We have already seen the beginning of the upper ridge building over the area which will keep our weather pleasant. This building ridge will result in gradually warming temperatures into the weekend.
Quite a pleasant day is in store for Thursday under the influence of high pressure.
The forecast area will remain under northwesterly flow aloft, although an upper ridge will approach the region from the west during the day Thursday. Southwest winds increase a bit Thursday, and with increased heights and thicknesses, it appears high temperatures should be about 12 degrees warmer than today, in line with MOS guidance.
238 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Cloud cover associated with moisture wrapping around the back side of the departing upper low continues to shift ewd across our region this afternoon. Temps to hover very near or even just below seasonal normals for the remainder of the work week, as nw flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc maintain their influence.
High pressure aloft will move overhead tonight prior to shifting east Thursday.