Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 1032 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ With high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. Deese Medium range models continue to show the region dominated by dry weather through the end of the work-week as upper-level ridging persists. Ridge breaks down through the weekend as the tail end of a strong short wave sweeping through the upper midwest and great lakes brushes the region. Associated cold front pushes through most of the area over the weekend, but is expected to stall somewhere across the southern/central portion of the state bringing low to moderate chances for precipitation to the region.
Diurnally driven instability is progged to increase on Wednesday, though persistent ridging should limit any showers and thunderstorms to isolated in coverage as convective temperatures are reached. The ridge is progged to break down and move east of the area Thursday.
The reason for this was the cold front that had slowly sagged southward the last few days was stalled out as a vigorous upper level trough crossed the High Plains and headed toward the Dakotas. This trough caused a more southerly component in the low level flow ahead of the frontal boundary as opposed to the southwest flow that previously accompanied this front as it passed through Minnesota. By morning this wave will have driven a cold front through the region with much cooler and drier weather as dewpoints fall back into the 50s by sunrise Thursday morning.
333 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows SW flow in place across the plains ahead of large scale upper trough over the western US. At the surface a stalled front extends across our southern CWA with a low pressure centered over southeast Colorado.
320 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 The ridge of high pressure that has brought warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past several days will remain in place for the next couple of days. Cloud cover will gradually increase through out the day tomorrow, however, as weak cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The progress of this front is expected to be very slow due to the strong influence of the aforementioned ridge of high pressure. The upper level ridge that has been dominating across the southeastern CONUS will break down as a short wave trough will move from the Continental Divide, to the northern Plains, and eventually the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by the weekend.
517 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wsw mid/upper level flow from the cntrl plains through the wrn Great Lakes between a ridge over the lower MS valley and a broad trough through the Rockies. At the surface, a front extended from nrn lower Michigan through cntrl WI to low pressure over wrn IA. SFC ridging Thu night into Fri will keep the area dry for at least Thu night.
301 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Dry weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
345 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure centered over northern Minnesota responsible for tranquil early morning conditions, however just south of the CWA we see an area of convection associated with an inverted trof and the right entrance region of a 90-100kt jet steam. Despite the high shear environment, CAPE is probably going to be at or less than 1000j/kg and spread along the length of the profile. The next wave embedded within the broad upper trof over the central CONUS comes late Thursday into the overnight hours.
629 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Weakness in the upper ridge allows convection across the northern tier today. Will see an increase in the low level moisture advection. Hi res NAM depicting a weak disturbance riding around the periphery of the ridge.
1118 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a high amplitude ridge over the southeastern CONUS and trough over the western CONUS. Wednesday will be warmer with gusty westerly winds throughout the day. Highs will range from the low 70s to low 80s. Thursday will be a few degrees warmer but windier along and west of the Laramie Range.
Currently, air temperatures in Keys island communities range from 75-82F, with cooler values in rain-cooled areas. The tropical wave we have been tracking for several days is, of course, not a candidate for tropical cyclone development.
Afternoon temperatures will increase the next few days as an offshore high pressure ridge strengthens. The high pressure ridge combined with an inland thermal low pressure trough will increase offshore winds across higher elevations. An offshore high pressure ridge will strengthen the next few days. The high pressure ridge will increase afternoon temperatures this week especially across inland areas. A thermal low pressure trough will develop across inland california the next few days with the warmer temperatures occurring. Winds will increase across higher ridge tops the next few days.
516 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wsw mid/upper level flow from the cntrl plains through the wrn Great Lakes between a ridge over the lower MS valley and a broad trough through the Rockies. At the surface, a front extended from nrn lower Michigan through cntrl WI to low pressure over wrn IA. SFC ridging Thu night into Fri will keep the area dry for at least Thu night.
Rainfall accumulations will be relatively light from these disturbances, but the higher terrain of northwest Montana could receive up to a quarter to half inch by Thursday afternoon.
321 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure over Tennessee, while slow-moving cold front remains draped further northwest from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwestward to Nebraska. Afternoon high temperatures will once again reach the lower 90s, while heat index readings range from 100 to 105 degrees. While synoptic forcing will be absent, a few of the high-res models such as the WRF-ARW and HRRR suggest isolated convection may develop across the E/SE during peak heating. As was first seen with the 00z Sep 6 models, the latest model suite shows the cold front settling southward into central Illinois on Thursday as a weak area of high pressure builds into Iowa/northern Illinois.
239 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Weakness in the upper ridge allows convection across the northern tier today. Will see an increase in the low level moisture advection. Hi res NAM depicting a weak disturbance riding around the periphery of the ridge. High pressure will generally be in control through Wednesday night.
1203 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 The subtropical ridge situated over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley areas today is progged to remain in place through the work week before translating eastward over the southeast states into the weekend.
110 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. The region is in between the remnants of TS Hermine off the NJ coast and the upper ridge axis that extends from Indiana down the St. A warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns.
630 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Dry weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
122 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Warm and humid conditions will persist through Wednesday with lows in the low to mid 70s tonight and highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
By Thursday evening, associated cold front with the Montana upper low moves into our northeastern zones, easing fire weather problems.
128 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. and a trough in the Rockies. SFC ridging Thu night into Fri will keep the area dry for at least Thu night.
406 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 More of the same expected today as a large upper ridge remains in control over the lower MS/OH Valleys. The ridge is expected to slowly break down over late in the work week and this will allow a weak cold front will sag south toward the region.
402 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 Another hot and humid day on tap across the area as upper level high pressure across much of the southern CONUS remains in control. Will keep low pops in across the north tonight as an upper wave lifting through the plains helps push the much discussed cold front a little closer to the area.
Now that we have decoupled from the drier air aloft we are seeing some recovery in dewpoints with values in the low to mid 60s. Stumpf For 06Z TAFs: High pressure over the area will keep VFR conditions in the forecast through the period.
300 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 The ridge of high pressure that has brought warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past several days will remain in place for the next couple of days. Cloud cover will gradually increase through out the day tomorrow, however, as weak cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The progress of this front is expected to be very slow due to the strong influence of the aforementioned ridge of high pressure.
Still some fire weather concerns for the high country - see Fire Weather section for details. For tonight, the high level cloud deck is expected to shift back slowly eastward with forward progression of the northern U. trough. Dry westerly flow will be over the region on Thursday ahead of an upper level trough over the Pacific NW.
Axis of long wave trough over western North America has shifted to the east of our CWA leaving us under northwesterly flow aloft. Within that flow are a couple of embedded short wave troughs that will pass by mainly to our north. The stronger of these troughs was over the Queen Charlottes this morning. The trough will bring clouds to northern zones but southern zones will stay mostly clear. Behind the trough west or northwest surface winds will increase Thursday to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
349 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure and dry weather will continue to dominate the sensible weather through Thursday. A weak low pressure trough will settle across portions of northern GA by tomorrow as the high center gets shunted a little south, but moisture is so limited, pops are not expected. NListemaa Dry weather continues into the extended periods as upper-level ridging persists. Ridge weakens across the southeast through the weekend as a strong short wave pushes into the Great Lakes region. Southern portions of long wave trough will help move associated cold front to the south and east.
217 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week.
128 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination. Nam along with several of the hi res models show a weak impulse traversing down the peripheral of the ridge late tonight/predawn. Tonight should be dry as high pressure remains in control.
with a subtropical high over the lwr MS Valley and a broad deamplifying trof over the Wrn USA. carving out a broad trof over the Nrn 1/2 of the CONUS by daybreak Thu. The NAM shows these high clouds are on the higher tropopause and heights will not begin to fall (shoving the cloudband SE) until late tonight.
308 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016 A weak disturbance will drop south into the region today before stronger high pressure builds back into the area from the southwest for the end of the week.
Flat high pressure will remain over the eastern Pacific and west coast through the end of the week bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Most areas should see a slight warm up today under a warming airmass under the building ridge and higher heights. Exception will be in the delta influenced areas where a somewhat stronger delta breeze will bring a little cooler temperatures.
Upper trough is currently positioned over SE Idaho, and is resulting in clouds for areas east of the Snake Plain. As the trough continues to drift eastward into Wyoming today, breezy conditions are expected to develop over SE Idaho today, with the breeziest winds focused over the Snake Plain this afternoon into early evening, with southwest wind gusts around 25 mph. Another trough will swing through the Northern Rockies on Thursday, bringing with it an increase in winds for our area.
One of the highest PW airmasses of the year will be situated over the area through Thu which will allow any of the showers or storms to produce very high rainfall rates. This will continue to make flooding the main threat for the next few days with southern and se KS looking to have the highest threat. A Strong cold front is still expected to push across the area on Fri afternoon through Fri night with storms likely along this feature. that has been in place the last several days, will finally arrive Sat as a much cooler and drier airmass settles over the region. The potl for further (+)TSRA aprs minimal til 21z-24Z as cold front wl make VERY SLOW SE progress twd Cntrl KS.
A warming trend will continue today and peak on Wednesday as high pressure builds over our region. Onshore flow will increase late in the week as the high pressure weakens and allows for temperatures to fall back to near seasonal averages.
305 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 An upper trough crossing the northern plains today will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area from this morning into the afternoon. The area with the highest PoPs today will be located from the Black Hills northward across northwestern South Dakota from this morning into the early afternoon in the region of the strongest mid-level frontogenesis.
The ridge over the southeastern part of the United States will continue to dominate the weather pattern leading to mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. An upper-level ridge will slowly begin to break down late this week as a cold front swings into the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures cooled into the low to mid 70s northern areas to the upper 70s along the I-10 corridor to the lower 80s along the immediate coast. The weaker mid level flow around the dome of high pressure is now upon us with the moisture rich deeper and stronger mid level flow now across the central Gulf extended west into southern and central Texas.
county however will only see patchy low clouds and as a result will be much warmer than VTA county. Still the Central Coast will be mostly sunny today with the low clouds lurking off the shore.
252 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Weakness in the upper ridge allows convection across the northern tier today. Will see an increase in the low level moisture advection. Hi res NAM depicting a weak disturbance riding around the periphery of the ridge.
339 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Dry weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
358 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through the end of the week with low pressure well to the north.
Best chance for rain will be across the far nw closer to the main upper trough late tonight into wed. Main upper trough moves east of the region by Thursday morning.
353 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge over the Southcentral United States will continue to suppress most shower and thunderstorm development over West Central Texas today and tonight. Lee trough will not be quite as strong, however, with south winds of 10 to 17 mph and occasional higher gusts.
246 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Weakness in the upper ridge allows convection across the northern tier today. Will see an increase in the low level moisture advection. Hi res NAM depicting a weak disturbance riding around the periphery of the ridge.
1034 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front crosses the region late tonight.
1032 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front will move east tonight. Another cold front will follow on Monday, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
1248 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front crosses the region late tonight.
/ISSUED / Drier air in place over the region that arrived behind yesterday's cold front will continue to yield below average lows the next couple of nights.
This activity continues to slowly drift west along the northern periphery of an upper trough centered over Southeast Texas. These trends should continue through the night as a quasi-stationary cold front moves slightly farther southeast allowing surface winds to become northerly, which will advect drier low-level air into the region from the northwest. /issued 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Inverted trough over se TX coast. dipping further swd over east TX in response to movement of trough. although this pocket of cooler dewpoints expected to rebound back into at least lower 60s as wraparound flow subsides later tonight.
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front crosses the region late tonight.
1046 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front will cross the region from the west into the early morning hours.
Through tomorrow, a large closed-off mid-level low will remain centered over the Great Lakes region with a broad mid-level ridge anchored over the western U. As a result, may only see some isolated to scattered storms develop along this front by late afternoon (generally along and north of I-70), and only have slight chance PoPs in at this time due to the low confidence in storm development and coverage.
1234 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Low pressure will track west of the area tonight into Monday.
On Monday, a passing low pressure system will cause slightly cooler temperatures and breezy southwest winds.
1113 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Winds have gone calm over much of the forecast area this evening with temperatures falling into the lower and mid 60s. High pressure over northern Oklahoma will continue to slide southward tonight as a cold front drops southward from the upper Midwest, causing winds to pick up slightly from the west and southwest by mid morning Monday. Late Monday afternoon a cold front moves into northern Missouri and then into central Missouri Monday night. Not sure how far south the activity will make it given the proximity of the highs influence into southern Missouri. Will keep the lower end probabilities across central into south central Missouri.
733 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front extending from Ohio to western Tennessee and will move east and off the mid Atlantic coast by Monday morning.
835 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 The upper low remains over Northwest Nevada this evening, but thunderstorms have waned. With the upper low also moving slowly east, a few showers are possible overnight near the Oregon border where some deformation on the northwest side of the low is occurring. Wallmann Low pressure will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Monday with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain possible.
/issued 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Inverted trough over se TX coast. dipping further swd over east TX in response to movement of trough. although this pocket of cooler dewpoints expected to rebound back into at least lower 60s as wraparound flow subsides later tonight.
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Low pressure will track west of the area tonight into Monday.
943 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Scattered showers and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. As the front moves toward the ridges late evening showers will diminish with lower dew points drying out the low levels and beginning to decrease clouds.
1130 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 High pressure over the central Great Plains will drift southeast over Oklahoma and northeast Texas by Monday afternoon. As this happens, another cold front will press south from the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest tonight into Monday morning should be into northern Missouri by early to mid afternoon Monday. Lift provided by the cold front combined with strong diurnal heating and a sharpening trof aloft should provide ample ingredients for precipitation. Highs Monday should be a little warmer than today in westerly flow ahead of the front. Carney Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early evening hours on Monday night across much of the area as the cold front moves south before they begin to diminish with the loss of daytime heating.
Monday will be mainly rain-free as a surface cyclone pulls northward into Ontario and Quebec provinces. With partly sunny skies and a fairly warm boundary layer forecast, temperatures in the lower 80s are likely to be realized in the valleys.
Much cooler airmass will sink in overnight and daytime highs Monday still expected to be in the 60s. Next mid level circulation will begin dropping into the trough later tonight so may see some additional shra moving back into the NE so maintained some low pops aft midnight. With column cooling will see temperatures a bit cooler tonight. Temperatures quite a bit cooler with highs in the 60s expected. High pressure will build in starting Monday night which will be the start of a modest stretch of dry weather.
19z/2 pm surface analysis shows deepening 994 mb low pressure northeast of Georgian Bay Canada with a frontal boundary extending sw across southeast IN and far southeast IL approaching the Ohio river. A 551 dm 500 mb low over western Ontario with a fairly strong upper level trof over the Great Lakes region and Ohio river valley with IL caught in its nw upper level flow. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s with a few upper 50s possible from I-74 north.
1150 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Quick update to Zone/Coastal forecast for Brevard and Coastal Volusia counties based on 11 PM advisory for Tropical Cyclone Colin.
/issued 217 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ A cold front currently stretches from Clarksville, Tennessee to Greenwood, Mississippi. High pressure will briefly build into the area on Monday. However, another cold front will begin pushing into northern areas of the Mid-South by late Monday night.
717 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Main forecast concerns for the short term will be a mainly dry forecast, however with a cold front Monday, have added isolated isolated thunderstorms.
906 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An elongated upper low was centered just along the coast near Matagorda bay at 9 pm. /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Bands of se moving showers now over Southeast Texas on NW flank of upper low. /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Scattered showers have developed across much of Southeast Texas this afternoon as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. This activity is moving from northeast to southwest, with development and movement aided by a gradually decaying shear axis stretching from the Lower Texas Coast into Louisiana per afternoon water vapor imagery. Still concerned about a localized minor flood threat where convection trains or along colliding outflow boundaries with the high precipitable water values in place (1.
A few showers will linger across the Southern Appalachian Region this evening as a cold front continues to approach from the west. The lowering dewpoints may offset the impact of recent rainfall. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 87 63 87 / 50 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 84 62 83 / 50 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 61 83 / 40 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 82 58 80 / 50 10 10 20.
GAH Upper ridge remains in place over the northern Rockies while a long-wave trough/upper low spreads across eastern Canada.
At the surface, the breezy northerly winds at the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites should diminish after sunset, as mixing ceases and the stronger winds aloft become decoupled from the cooler stable air near the surface. Following a pre-dawn period of light northerly winds averaging less than 5 knots, weak surface ridging over OK and a trough off the LA coast should yield a gradient that supports northerly winds averaging 7-12 knots by 16-18z Monday.
1230 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Scattered showers and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. That could lead to more than one cell tracking over a similar area before the boundary finally starts to get kicked to the SE as the upper trough settles southeastward by Monday night.
Canadian high pressure will begin building south across the Dakotas on Monday with cooler 850mb temps and breezy north winds. Highs will be several degrees cooler compared to today with temps ranging from the upper 60s east to mid 70s west.