Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This low level cyclonic flow really does not start to relax until very late tonight across the southern sections as an area of high pressure moves across Iowa. If this clearing does occur, still some doubts whether is would occur early enough to allow for much frost to form or for temperatures to drop much below freezing. The clouds should then clear from south to north through the day Monday as the area of low pressure over Ontario continues to pull away from the region. With some sunshine, look for warmer temperatures with highs in the 40s and lower 50s expected. At this time the greater amounts look to be to our north and east, however, as the low becomes better organized after passing through our area.
High pressure will keep the area dry today, but then a cold front will bring rain chances to central Indiana Tuesday and Tuesday night. Previous discussion High pressure will build in today. With cooler air moving in behind the front, highs will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Quiet weather will continue tonight into Tuesday morning as high pressure exits the area. Warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front will bring enough forcing for some low PoPs Tuesday afternoon. However, an upper jet and upper trough will add enough forcing to the cold front to squeeze out what moisture there is across the area to go with likely PoPs Tuesday night. However, will keep them in the low end of the likely category due to the limited moisture (this is a bit lower than the initialization's PoPs).
1035 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 A weak cold front will slide east across the region today with nothing more than some clouds, and perhaps a few sprinkles across the Northern Mountains of the state.
A weak upper level ridge will build over the region today and push eastward by this evening.
409 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Massive upper low has finally begun to depart from the Great Lakes area and will lose its influence over the area. As high pressure has settled in behind it, calm winds have developed across the CWA. The pressure gradient continues to tighten as the low and associated front approach.
A cold front will begin to pass through later tonight into Tuesday morning. For today, well above normal temperatures are expected courtesy of downsloping southwest winds associated with a sfc trof of low pressure over ern NM and ern CO along with plenty of sunshine. A cold front will move across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning with breezy north winds in its wake and noticeably cooler temperatures.
Surface analysis shows coastal trof/warm front right along the coast early this morning. Showers and tstms should continue increasing in areal coverage closer to the coast this morning where convergence along the trof/warm frontal boundary exists. Also need to keep an eye for some very isolated spinners near the warm front. The next cold front will make its way into the region late Tue night and off the coast early Wed morning. A line of shra/tstms should accompany the front, with some lingering post-frontal rain chances continuing across the southern half of the area and offshore until the upper trof axis passes thru sometime late Thurs.
317 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Winds will kick up this afternoon and this evening at the surface as a trough of low pressure at the surface and aloft pass through the area.
533 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Ridge axis aloft extending across the southern peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic is responsible for westerly flow aloft across the region. At the surface, high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic is keeping most of the region under generally light easterly flow. The ridging will gradually weaken and shift east as a frontal boundary eventually drops into the northeast Gulf and stalls/weakens by mid- week, allowing flow to become more southerly with a slight increase in moisture over the area. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east/southeast winds/seas around 10kts or so into mid-week. when a weak cold front will settle into the area with a chance of rain.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Much warmer and more humid conditions return today across Deep South Texas, as 500mb ridging broadens across the region and coastal troughing exits to the north.
A cold front will bring chances for rain and light snow late this afternoon through Tuesday morning, generally across the northern half of western and central North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Iowa and southern Minnesota and a deepening low was centered over eastern Montana and Wyoming. There is a small window of opportunity where surface layer temperatures may drop below freezing while the precipitation is still liquid, which would favor a chance of freezing rain on elevated surfaces.
and Tuesday Weak upper ridging and high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will combine to produce dry and milder weather today through most of tonight. Then an approaching upper trough and inverted trough at the surface will bring clouds and light rain late tonight and Tuesday.
300 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Dry and mild weather early this week with temperatures close to average, then cooler for the second half of the week. Clear skies cover the region early this morning as the lingering weak trough edges slowly east. Current temperatures are cooler across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the upper 20s in the colder mountain valleys to the 40s to mid 50s across the Central Valley. Upstream ridging will move overhead proving more dry and mild weather the next few days.
/issued 533 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ Ridge axis aloft extending across the southern peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic is responsible for westerly flow aloft across the region. At the surface, high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic is keeping most of the region under generally light easterly flow. The ridging will gradually weaken and shift east as a frontal boundary eventually drops into the northeast Gulf and stalls/weakens by mid- week, allowing flow to become more southerly with a slight increase in moisture over the area. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east/southeast winds/seas around 10kts or so into mid-week. when a weak cold front will settle into the area with a chance of rain.
453 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 08z surface analysis had low over central MT with trough into western NE. Expect cooler temperatures.
405 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 A warming trend will continue today ahead of the next cold front, which will move across the area during the day Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase in southeast Oklahoma tonight, and over the rest of the area Tuesday as the cold front moves through.
High pressure will exit the region to the east today as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. High pressure drops back in over the area Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 50s south, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s. Cooler air moves back in behind the front Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Lower clouds wl incrs acrs S AR tngt as a warm front begins to lift NWD. The aforementioned ridge is fcst to shift to the E today, allowing S/SE wind flow to return to the region. Cloud cover and rain chances wl incrs sloly ovr S AR tngt and acrs the rest of the FA on Tue, as abundant moisture lifts up and ovr the warm front. By Tue ngt, a deepening upr trof in the NRN stream wl drop SEWD fm the upper Plains States.
1033 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 A weak, but dry cold front will move east across the area today. High pressure will build across the area this afternoon into tonight.
/issued 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ Its a bit warmer this morning across the Midsouth. Highs should make it into the low to middle 70s across the region. The primary focus on this forecast update will be a warm front lifting North on Tuesday followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
641 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Massive upper low has finally begun to depart from the Great Lakes area and will lose its influence over the area. As high pressure has settled in behind it, calm winds have developed across the CWA. The pressure gradient continues to tighten as the low and associated front approach.
Temperatures acrs the area are about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time last night, but still relatively cooler than temperatures south of the front. 24 The offshore boundary will lift north today as a warm front. Temperatures will be warmer as well, with highs into the middle 70s north to lower 80s south. Overnight lows tonight will be much warmer as the Gulf airmass continues to envelope the area, with temperatures not expected to fall beyond the middle 60s acrs cntl LA, while lower to middle 70s are expected along and south of I-10. By late Tuesday, a northern stream trough will dig over the north cntl CONUS, helping to push a cold front southward into the region.
424 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 A cold front will bring chances for rain and light snow late this afternoon through Tuesday morning, generally across the northern half of western and central North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Iowa and southern Minnesota and a deepening low was centered over eastern Montana and Wyoming. There is a small window of opportunity where surface layer temperatures may drop below freezing while the precipitation is still liquid, which would favor a chance of freezing rain on elevated surfaces.
929 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Satellite loops show the fog now just in the low lying areas of the Missouri river valley, and should lift within the next hour. A cold front will bring chances for rain and light snow late this afternoon through Tuesday morning, generally across the northern half of western and central North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Iowa and southern Minnesota and a deepening low was centered over eastern Montana and Wyoming. There is a small window of opportunity where surface layer temperatures may drop below freezing while the precipitation is still liquid, which would favor a chance of freezing rain on elevated surfaces.
This moisture is being pulled up into western Texas by a high pressure area sitting in the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough digging south across California. We haven't seen any rain associated with this moisture plume as the low levels still remain rather dry and the LCL's remain elevated. As this plume of moisture gets picked up by the deepening trough out west, a gradual moistening of the low levels will take place and with it, rain chances will be more likely, especially as we head in the latter part of the day. Temperatures will be in the 80s but could be cooler in places that see rain and thicker cloud cover, and warmer in areas that miss out on the rain and see breaks in the clouds.
Avery Winds will kick up this afternoon and this evening at the surface as a trough of low pressure at the surface and aloft pass through the area.
736 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 A weak, but dry cold front will move east across the area tonight into Monday. High pressure will build back into the Great Lakes Monday night.
637 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 The next upper level low will track across the Dakotas today into tonight, but the cold front will not pass through until after sunset this evening. Consequently, we expect a very nice day with southerly winds ahead of the approaching cold front that should result in most all areas climbing into the 70s for highs today. Increased wind speeds a bit above the National Blend of Models using CONSMOS guidance to get the higher winds.
Dry and pleasant fall weather will continue through midweek with a little warmer temperatures each day.
/issued 450 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Much warmer and more humid conditions return today across Deep South Texas, as 500mb ridging broadens across the region and coastal troughing exits to the north.
/Issued 405 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ A warming trend will continue today ahead of the next cold front, which will move across the area during the day Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase in southeast Oklahoma tonight, and over the rest of the area Tuesday as the cold front moves through.
Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler today, due to the passage of a week cold front overnight.
A cold front will enter far northwest Oklahoma around 12z Tuesday. /issued 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ Warmer today with increasing south winds and cloud cover. The increasing southerly flow will allow lower level moisture to increase, especially tonight and early Tuesday ahead of next cold front. Deepening moisture will result in the possibility of scattered showers ahead of and near cold front on Tuesday.
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a broad area of mean-layer ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon through Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 53 74 59 69 / 0 10 60 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 48 76 58 68 / 0 0 30 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 75 48 76 56 66 / 0 0 20 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 45 76 54 65 / 0 0 20 60 50.
250 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a broad area of mean-layer ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Skies are mostly sunny and the KBYX radar detects a few showers dragging through the Lower Keys. The mean- layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will control the weather through the next several days as it lumbers to the east, then southeast to near Cuba. The low level ridge axis initially across Central Florida will sag southward in tandem with the upper ridge's trek towards the Western Caribbean. Rain chances and breezes will continue to trail off tonight and Tuesday as the low level ridge axis approaches the Keys.
243 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Temperatures have risen above seasonal normals this afternoon in advance of a cold front that will push through the region on Tuesday. Elevated showers and thunderstorms will possible late Tonight across southeast Oklahoma as a zone of isentropic lift develops to the north of an approaching warm front. There may also be a few rain showers across portions of northeast Oklahoma late Tonight as a cold front moves into the region from the north. Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely Tuesday afternoon as the cold front continues to slice through the region. The showers and thunderstorms come to an end Tuesday evening as the cold front moves well south and east of the area.
1133 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Another nice day in store though an approaching trough will mix things up a bit, literally. The atmosphere remains very dry at low levels so the trough, while providing some ascent, will not produce any precipitation whatsoever. The trough will allow some deeper mixing, however, which will cause some gusty winds this afternoon. The only way to really tell that the trough has passed will be a switch to more northwesterly winds which won't actually happen until much later tonight. Another day, another ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday.
Central Indiana will remain under the influence of high pressure through tonight.
Sly winds Tue AM will gradually shift wly with the cold frontal passage in the afternoon.
1251 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Massive upper low has finally begun to depart from the Great Lakes area and will lose its influence over the area. As high pressure has settled in behind it, calm winds have developed across the CWA. The pressure gradient continues to tighten as the low and associated front approach.
A cold front will move into area around daybreak tomorrow and move southeast through the area. A cold front will enter far northwest Oklahoma around 12z Tuesday. /issued 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ Warmer today with increasing south winds and cloud cover. The increasing southerly flow will allow lower level moisture to increase, especially tonight and early Tuesday ahead of next cold front. Deepening moisture will result in the possibility of scattered showers ahead of and near cold front on Tuesday.
258 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 High pressure aloft will dominate through midweek, bringing slightly above average temperatures to the region.
Intermittent showers will impact the southern Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains through this evening but not expecting any flight restrictions at KFST and KPEQ with any activity. Meanwhile a mid-level trof moving thru CA this morning will have a chance to work with rich moisture Tue AM, especially across the Trans Pecos. Timing of front, passage of mid-level trof and presence of moisture warrant increased PoPs for Lower Trans Pecos into Wed AM. It will be warm Fri-Sun followed by the passing of a trof/assocd cold front on Mon.
244 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 With breezy south winds and mostly sunny skies, temperatures have ended up quite a bit warmer than expected today. The next trough and associated cold front is pushing out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Great Plains. Temperatures will also be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today, with highs expected to be in the 50s and low 60s. Winds will diminish quickly Tuesday evening as high pressure moves in from the north. Dry conditions and mild conditions are expected through the rest of the work week as high pressure shifts off to the east and midlevel riding builds overhead.
An upper low pressure system, currently over Saskatchewan, Canada, will slide southeast towards the Great Lakes.
VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle with light winds and high pressure in place.
Will have the highest chances of rain across north- central Wisconsin, then taper precipitation chances to the east. For Tuesday, low pressure and the associated cold front will move across the region. The track of the low will allow for the warm sector to make it into our southern counties where highs in the lower to middle 50s are expected. Highs across the north will only be in the lower to middle 40s. Tuesday Night Through Monday Low pressure will be situated over far northeast WI/south central Upper Peninsula on Tuesday evening, as a powerful upper level low moves through northern WI.
At the surface, weak trof is progressing west to east across the Dakotas with breezy north winds developing in a well mixed atmosphere behind the trof. Cooler temperatures expected with highs only in the 40s.
There is a cold front still over southeast Montana this afternoon, that is forecast to plunge southward through our area by 12UTC/7am Tuesday morning. The cold front will usher in negative temp advection limiting the highs on Tuesday, to mainly the mid 60s.
A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning swinging the wind to the north at all three TAF sites mid to late morning. Ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will amplify and spread westward, providing further lift for moisture to stream north out of Old Mexico during the day today into southern Arizona and southern New Mexico. At the same time the Pacific Low to our west will open up into an open trough and become more progressive pushing much of the appreciable moisture available just to our south.
Snow amounts should be less than an inch along the highway 2 corridor, with lesser amounts south. This gave winds of 20 to 35 mph with a few 40 mph gusts as the cold front sweeps through on Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be in the in the lower 40s southwest to the mid to upper 30s James River Valley. After the clipper moves through, we expect a period of warmer temperatures and dry weather for the remainder of the work week as a broad h500 ridge moves into the northern plains.
A low amplitude "dirty" ridge aloft exists over the southern Plains today, and will maintain dry weather for the time being. Highs today will again trend warmer than the previous day, in the upper 70s in most areas. A more pronounced influx of lower level Gulf moisture will occur tonight into Tuesday ahead of a cold front, that is associated with a strong northern stream disturbance diving south across the central part of the country. /Issued 405 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ A warming trend will continue today ahead of the next cold front, which will move across the area during the day Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase in southeast Oklahoma tonight, and over the rest of the area Tuesday as the cold front moves through.
Surface cold front over se Ga will provide a focus for rainfall as moisture increases.
125 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 High pressure into Tuesday.
valid for Tue The cold front has passed through the area, and the gusty northwest winds have arrived. Going into Tuesday, the are will be under some ridging, bring dry weather. As tomorrow will be behind the front, expecting temperatures to be slightly cooler, with highs generally in the mid 50s.
147 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Dry and mild weather early this week with temperatures close to average, then cooler for the second half of the week. Upper level ridging is building over NorCal today, providing more dry and mild weather the next few days.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Winds will kick up this afternoon and this evening at the surface as a trough of low pressure at the surface and aloft pass through the area.
1108 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 08z surface analysis had low over central MT with trough into western NE. Expect cooler temperatures.
Current temperatures are in the low to mid 70's. A stationary front currently situated north of the Gulf Coast will lift northward as a warm front overnight. This will be followed by the passage of another cold front currently to our west on Tuesday night.
230 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Another dry day today with pleasant temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
In advance of this jet streak was an upper level trough over southern California. This trough will approach the area on Tuesday and slow down as it does so. Also occurring on Tuesday will be a cold frontal passage with moderately breezy winds behind the front during the afternoon hours.
Southerly breezes were pumping in warmer air along with some Gulf moisture.
A dry cold front will track across the region tonight, but impacts will be minimal other than slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift across the high plains.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley through the rest of the afternoon into tonight as the 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico extending westward into northeast Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the area. /issued 450 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Much warmer and more humid conditions return today across Deep South Texas, as 500mb ridging broadens across the region and coastal troughing exits to the north.
1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 The next upper level low will track across the Dakotas today into tonight, but the cold front will not pass through until after sunset this evening. Consequently, we expect a very nice day with southerly winds ahead of the approaching cold front that should result in most all areas climbing into the 70s for highs today. Increased wind speeds a bit above the National Blend of Models using CONSMOS guidance to get the higher winds.
Have the highest rain chances over the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau.
A split trough system is moving across the western states with the northern portion pushing a cold front south into the Permian Basin tomorrow night.
330 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Wx map shows warm front now just north of Jasper, TX and approaching Leesville & Alexandria, LA this afternoon. South of the warm front, warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and a return to dewpoints ranging from the lower to upper 70s. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms has developed in the warmer sector across Southeast Texas where the mid to upper 70s dewpoints readings were noted.
Lingering clouds and breezy afternoon winds will decrease through the evening as high pressure builds over central Idaho and western Montana.