Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SCATTERED POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE LOW 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO NEAR 60F IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH THE TAIL END OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
311 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER. UNDER THE RIDGE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE DRIER AIR. BUT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
603 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 Very mild temperatures continue to be the main story in the short term period, as ridging now over the High Plains pushes east and southwesterly flow develops throughout the low- to mid-levels, promoting mixing and an eastward translation of the 60s currently painted across much of western and central KS.
Meridional flow was in place today with a broad mid- level trough to the east and a broad mid-level ridge to the west. These winds will shift to the southwest Friday morning ahead of the advancing trough.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A SLEET/FREEZING-RAIN/SNOW MIX. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HAVE ADDED 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE STALLED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE 12-20 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR A POTENTIAL BAND OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BASED UPON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD MIXING AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROPAGATES EAST AS A WARM FRONT.
922 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY.
625 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN MID/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRST WAVE MOVING INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT PRESSURE FALLS OUT FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS AND EXPECT A LEESIDE SURFACE TROF TO BEGIN SHIFTING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES WITH NO WIND CONCERNS. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE.
/ISSUED 527 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF AREA. /ISSUED 239 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS WITH HIGH ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 60S IN MOST AREAS.
623 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY COMPLETE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. COOLING LOW LEVELS DUE TO DIURNAL AND WET BULBING PROCESSES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO SNOW AS SOUNDING PROFILES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM BELOW 2000 FEET AND UP. WHILE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO AS MUCH AS HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS NEARER THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA STATE LINES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING USHERS IN A COOLER AIRMASS. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON NEARER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
DIRECTION HAS SHIFTED TO NW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH. /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONTAL ZONES OVER FLORIDA AND EAST GULF AND 1020MB HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO NORTH ALABAMA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
703 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS PACIFIC WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S IN NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 60S IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. THE CONUS SHOULD TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL ALSO BE TO OUR EAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CWA.
835 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PURSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HELP PROVIDE THE RIDGES AND THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATION. DECENT SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND BRIEF HOURS OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE RIDGES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE RIDGES UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS ARE PIVOTING MORE NORTHWARD AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROF IS STILL DIGGING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EAST OF ALABAMA BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROF. THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. BUT WARMER SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY.
THIS WILL IN TURN INDUCE SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION AND WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PICK UP ACCORDINGLY DURING THE DAY.
A minor cooling is on track for Friday after a cold front pushes southward across central IL tonight. then a substantial warm up will take place over the weekend as warm southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect highs Friday in the lower 40s.
SHOULD BE AN OUTSTANDING END TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FORM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
315 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER. UNDER THE RIDGE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE DRIER AIR. BUT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHARP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL END THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT AS NW WINDS ADVECT IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCES WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND BE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER. THE LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN) THAT ARRIVES ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA.
834 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
JUST BEHIND THIS DECK OF CLOUDS, A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT ORIENTED N TO SW ACROSS IL TO THE OZARKS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PUSH SE THRU THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND UPPER WEISER BASIN GOT MOSTLY WET SNOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE WEISER BASING SEEING 3 TO 4 INCHES. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS EXCEPT IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 5500 FEET.
BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS MN.
At 02 UTC a cold front was moving across Southern Florida. Aloft, the main trough axis is moving through the forecast area with the mid and upper level cloudiness moving east of the region. Dry, cool advection will continue overnight and push temperatures into the lower 40s by daybreak.
AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND TRANSITIONS TO QUASI ZONAL FLOW LATE FRIDAY. SNOW PACK CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WITH AN 850HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVERNIGHT. FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTIONS. BUT MET CONTINUES TO BE COOLER AT THE SFC. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR SATURATION AT MERRIMAN AND VALENTINE. SO STAYED NEAR MAV FOR MAX TEMPS WHICH IS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN ECM.
Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, along with high temperatures mainly in the 70s, although a few locations may top out in the lower 80s.
RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TONIGHT AND THEN START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.
A broad upper level trough will continue in place over the western and central part of the U. On Friday, a weak cold front will push through western and central Kansas as the upper wave moves over the region.
925 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
632 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PURSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HELP PROVIDE THE RIDGES AND THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION. DECENT SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND BRIEF HOURS OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE RIDGES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE RIDGES UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WAS ALLOWING FOR MILD WEATHER TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO MT/WY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AND FREEZING RAIN GIVEN A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH MUCH OF NWRN-WCNTRL SD IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WELL- MIXED.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH ALIGNED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THE INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE ISLAND CHAIN. A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING.
AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT EAST ONGOING AREAS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL COME TO AN END WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND BAY AND INLAND WATERWAYS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
642 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
/issued 208 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ There is an upper level trough over the eastern half of the conus with upper ridging taking place over the CWA.
SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY COOLER THAN THE GOING FORECAST AND HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AS WELL AS A SLIGHT LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 130M INDICATED ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERMAL AXIS AT 850MB EXTENDED FROM WEST TX THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD MT.
BUT IT'S DEFINITELY WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AND IF YOU LIKE IT WARMER. MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
COLD FRONT SLIPPED THROUGH MLB BEFORE 00Z AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS ASSOCD WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALNG THE I-4 CORRIDOR HAS WORKED ITS WAY E OF THE MS RIVER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY STRONG H30-H20 JET STREAK (MAX WINDS 160KTS OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX AS OF 18Z). THE TROF AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY STEADILY TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD BY 00Z. THE COOLER NW WINDS WILL PUSH MIN TEMPS INTO THE U40S/L50S ALONG AND N OF I-4. POST-FRONTAL RIDGE SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. UPR TROF WILL SWING CLEAR OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDS DVLPG OVERNIGHT AS THE LCL PGRAD TIGHTENS BEHIND THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
South of this feature across the Ozarks, temperatures were once again warming into the lower 90s, as dew points were in the lower 70s. Not much southward movement in these storms are expected Friday morning, however, by Friday afternoon, models suggest that a mid level speed max will approach from the northwest, forcing a cold front to sweep southern Missouri.
BUT COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE ROCKIES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK A BIT WARMER THOUGH. OTHER MODELS 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER.
829 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT. PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
701 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 330 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH THEN STRENGTHEN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AS SUBTROPICAL DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WEAKENS AND RECENTERS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND A COLD FRONT TO PUSH FROM SOUTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVEN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A COLD POOL FROM THE POTENTIAL MCS PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE MIN TEMP FORECAST RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 70S OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80 AND IN THE LOWER 80S.
W/ A TWIST AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO PLAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. /ISSUED 421 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS.
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL PUSH 100F ON FRIDAY AND BE INTO THE LOW 100S ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WORKS NORTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY REACHING INTO S-CENTRAL OREGON BY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPANDS INTO SE OREGON ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER.
741 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. WITH A BASICALLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000+ J/KG MLCAPE A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO FIRE DESPITE THE BROAD /BUT NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG/ AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEST AREA FOR STORMS IS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND A FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 9500 FEET AGL MIGHT SUPPORT SOME HAIL TO DIME SIZE IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN MONTANA ENSURING A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH STEADILY RISING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE TAF PD. IT IS DEFINITELY A VERY WARM AND HUMID EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE TAF PD. DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH HEAT INDICIES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105. MID STATE IN WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING AND OVENIGHT AS LOW CENTER TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH COLD FRONT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS AT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
BUT IN GENERAL THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WHERE THE DEWPOINTS START TO CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESUME RETURN FLOW. MOIST ADVECTION AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AMPLIFIES. MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP AND CUTOFF UPR/MID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
1043 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS NOW BEGUN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A DECENT ERN US TROF DEVELOPS. THIS PLACES TX AND OK PNHDLS IN NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR STEERING TSTMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SERN CO INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MODELS SUGGEST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST SURFACE HUMIDITY BUT THE MOST RECENT RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN VALLEY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES (WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S OR HIGHER).
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE DRY AIR INTERFACE ALOFT NEAR I-20. MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
657 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS IL FROM RUSHVILLE EAST TO DECATUR AND SOUTHEAST TO LAWRENCEVILLE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WAS DEPARTING INTO S INDIANA/KENTUCKY TAKING A WAVE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER. WITH OUR WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF I-70.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS KANSAS AND SAG SOUTHWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 96 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEMISE OF THE MCS AFTER 06Z OR SO.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH LYING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A DISTURBANCE SLIPS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AREA. ANY CONTRIBUTING OUTFLOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN RECOVERING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THAT BEING A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A MASSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
/ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS NOW BEGUN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A DECENT ERN US TROF DEVELOPS. THIS PLACES TX AND OK PNHDLS IN NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR STEERING TSTMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SERN CO INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US MOVES IN TO MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.