Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
415 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Aloft, short wave ridging will transit the Midwest/Ohio Valley through the short term. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Appalachians will eventually yield to the approaching storm system from the west. A surface cold front, stretching southwest from a low over Michigan will just be entering the lower Ohio Valley by late Wednesday night. Weather remains dry as temperatures rebound into the low to mid 70s tomorrow, pushed along by a relatively light but increasing southwest gradient flow. Clouds will again be on the increase Wednesday night as a surface cold front approaches from the west.
243 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Mild Autumn temperatures continue one more day Wednesday, but a cold front will sweep across central Illinois and bring widely scattered showers and storms.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 76 58 75 58 / 0 0 20 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 75 56 74 57 / 0 0 10 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 47 74 55 73 55 / 0 0 10 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 73 48 72 56 / 0 0 0 50 50.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Mostly uneventful short-term forecast as southwesterly winds push warmer air into the region and skies remain clear. Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday as a low pressure system moves eastward over the Central Plains, sending a weak cold front into Texas. Available moisture in the lower levels has a few models pointing at storm development off the Glass Mountain and across Pecos county. Lows Wednesday night will once again be in the 50s, but expect a few 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos where overnight clouds will reduce radiational cooling.
258 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 222 PM CDT Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows vigorous closed low over the central Rockies.
302 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure centered just to the south tonight, then slide offshore mid to late week.
Lift related to a weak disturbance currently moving through the axis of the mid-level ridge has resulted in a notable increase in cirroform clouds across the Mid-South region this morning, with this cloud cover expected to spread eastward over the TN Valley today in light westerly flow aloft. Although this may have a minor impact on afternoon temperatures, we still expect highs to reach the lower 70s atop the Cumberland Plateau and mid 70s elsewhere, within a strengthening south-southeasterly flow regime in the boundary layer.
A northerly wind shift can be expected overnight tonight behind a cold front. Gusty winds should decrease after 00z ahead of the cold front, but some brief gusts to 25 knots are possible with the frontal passage. Closed upper low will move east and north from the Great Basin today into the central Plains states tonight and Wednesday. A cold front will enter the Oklahoma Panhandle this evening and then across the remainder of the Panhandles overnight tonight. The cold front is expected to exit the forecast area by 12Z Wednesday. Unseasonably warm today and then cooler conditions Wednesday.
A weather system will move across the Midwest on Wednesday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Temperatures are on track to warm into the lower 70s across central Illinois. No major changes to the short term forecast as we remain under the influence of high pressure and pleasant fall weather continues through Tuesday.
Main feature per water vapor imagery is closed low migrating along the WY/CO border with a mix of precip expanding across WY.
An upper level disturbance was moving across the Rockies/approaching the Plains today, with a N-S ridge axis near/along the Mississippi Valley.
an upper level low pressure area currently spinning over northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming will continue moving northeast into north central Nebraska overnight. At the surface, a strong cold front noted by 3 hour pressure rises up to 10mb reaches the northwest 1/2 or so of the forecast area early this evening with surface winds gusting up to 45 mph. Low temperatures fall into the lower 30s in far eastern Colorado, lower 30s to around 40 elsewhere. as the storm system continues moving away from the area there is good agreement on some weak upper level ridging moving in from the west ahead of another storm system well off the pacific northwest coast. High pressure moves in during the night allowing low temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
1204 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward. As the high moves offshore Wednesday, winds will shift southwesterly and temperatures will rebound above normal.
243 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Key Points: -Cold front is expected to move through the region on Wednesday morning.
138 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Ohio Valley will slide east through midweek.
339 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 (Issued 339 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: As high pressure lingers over the eastern CONUS tonight, dry conditions will continue. A weak frontal boundary will stall out somewhere in central Wisconsin early Wednesday before becoming a warm front as warm air advection increases ahead of the low.
255 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 An upper level low across the Rockies is expected to emerge into the plains late tonight with an associated cold front bringing some stratus. much cooler temperatures. Ahead of this low. expect a brisk day across the region Wednesday as significantly cooler air advects across the local area along with breezy northwest winds.
A cold front is currently working across northeast Colorado. A center of high pressure will shift south and east across the Central Plains through Wednesday. As a result, a gradual weakening trend in the winds is expected as the high moves overhead. As far a temperatures are concerned, cooler and drier air is expected to advect in through tomorrow. A welcomed relief from the heat is expected in the highs tomorrow.
As such, the highest POPs (around 20%) will likely be over our coastal waters and SE coastal counties (ie. Lows for to- night to range from the lower/mid 60s north to the mid/upper 60s to the south. So, overall still pleasant fall weather but a little warmer with slowly increas- ing humidities.
Could also see periodic cirrus plumes (high VFR) though latest satellite has the thicker plumes well to our north, and layered RH forecasts show gradual decreases in moisture overnight and into early Wednesday as upper level ridge expands from the western Gulf back into south and central Texas.
A modest elevated mixed layer moves in tonight and should keep most locations dry as lower levels moisten ahead of a cold front. Can't completely rule out a stray shower near the upper low in the far northwest counties or perhaps another high-based shower or two in central and eastern areas with some suggestions of mid-level moisture atop the EML, though the chances for any wetting rains are quite small.
Weak ridging aloft continues progressing east over the area through today and into Wednesday in response to an approaching upper low over Wyoming. Weak zonal flow aloft today will slowly become increasingly southwesterly by Wednesday as the upper low moves east into the Northern Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure continues progressing east parking itself over the Carolinas and remaining there through Wednesday. The best moisture will be focused over the western half of the area as the influences of the upper trough to our northwest will be more prominent. Temperatures begin trending warmer as we transition to easterly and eventually southeasterly flow (and moisture begins to increase). Southerly return flow around the Southeast CONUS ridge will advect moisture and clouds that is associated with a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico inland this evening.
227 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Ohio Valley will slide east through midweek.
1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Water vapor satellite shows a vigorous upper level low spinning over the Great Basin and swiftly moving eastward over the Rockies. The upper jet associated with this upper low will pivot over the Rockies and assist in lee cyclogenesis over southwestern Nebraska this morning. As the surface cyclone slides northeastward, a cold front will begin to surge southeastward into Kansas this afternoon. Ahead of this cold front, the pressure gradient will remain quite tight keeping stout southerly winds across the region.
208 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Dry high pressure will persist over the area through Wednesday, with temperatures back above normal in the middle of the week.
1136 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Upper low is currently spinning over Utah, with a 110- kt jet rounding its base. Cold front is nearly through the CWA; nonetheless, temperatures at 2 AM are still in the 40s and 50s, and winds are relatively light. Models are in good agreement on the track and timing of the low pressure system, slowing it down slightly. Cooler areas (northeastern WY and BH) will see snow with some minor accumulations today. Deterministic solutions, however, seem on the higher end of the ensembles, so have adjusted the QPF forecast more towards the ensembles. Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the end of the week, as an upper ridge builds.
Clouds associated with the upper low streaming north towards our area. Model guidance continues to show the low clouds dissipating slowly from north to south this afternoon into the evening to around the I94 corridor, then halting/redeveloping back to the north later tonight. Upper low moves into central South Dakota/Nebraska region overnight, with chances for rain or snow developing across our far south along the ND/SD border. Upper low continues to push to the east through the day Wednesday, pushing over the Iowa/Minnesota border by evening.
IR satellite imagery and lightning data indicated some isolated convection over the higher terrain in northern Mexico earlier this afternoon. The hi-res models suggest most of the convection over Mexico will remain confined to the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande. With southerly flow in the low-levels, some low cloud development is also anticipated for most areas after midnight.
In addition, high temperatures will trend a few to 14 degrees cooler than yesterday as a disturbance passes to the north of New Mexico. Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a tightly wound upper low over eastern UT moving northeast into northwest CO. Surface winds are increasing ahead of a Pacific cold front moving slowly eastward into western NM. Low temps will trend several degrees cooler under clear skies. Wednesday will trend a few degrees warmer again with sunny skies, low humidity, and slight breezes over the high plains of eastern NM.
107 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure slowly builds toward the area through tonight, then passes off the Southeast coast on Wednesday.
335 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure continues to move eastward, and temperatures slowly start to warm over the next few days.
Stratus is likely to develop and spread northward ahead of the next cold front however coverage and duration remains uncertain. Strong pressure gradient across ern OK/nwrn AR associated with deepening lee trough to the west will result in 25 to 30 mph southerly wind gusts today.
Rex block over the Rockies is slowly beginning to break down as a H500 longwave trough over the Eastern Pacific begins to approach the Western CONUS. A deepening low pressure trough off the Pacific coast will put the area under more of a southwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday.
Weak ridging still holding over SETX this morning with high centered over MS/AL. Pacific moisture spreading in from the southwest out of Mexico with the upper flow spiraling into the low over UT. This upper level moisture will be spreading eastward throughout the day so skies should be partly to mostly cloudy though due mainly to the high clouds and with only some shallow CU over the south. Overall still pleasant fall weather though a little more humid and warmer.
302 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure continues to triumph on Wednesday as temperatures moderate.
However, as south to southeasterly flow in the low-levels serves to moisten the atmosphere, we will see low clouds re-develop after midnight across much of the region. A broad upper level trough covers northern Mexico and Texas this morning.
KBYX is currently echo-free and has been for most of the day thanks to the drier air and the subsidence provided by high pressure centered over the southeast. This high pressure is still building into the area and is currently supporting moderate to fresh breezes across the coastal waters. The pressure gradient across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters will remain tightened as high pressure continues to strengthen and build into the region. Thereafter, an area of low pressure will move across the central United States and shove the high pressure eastward off of the Mid- Atlantic Coast.
140 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure continue to triumph on Wednesday as temperatures moderate.
A dry, cold front crosses tonight bringing gusty northerly winds and cloud cover. Eventually winds will shift to the northeast as an area of low pressure crosses southern MN/WI. That may change on the backside of this low, as a much colder air mass will move across the Northland with temperatures dropping 20 or more degrees.
Meanwhile, weak upper ridge axis across the middle of the country will contribute to a nice warm-up this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s to lower 80s.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
Current temperatures range from the mid 60 on the Plateau to the low 70s elsewhere, with scattered cirrus clouds noted on visible satellite. Tonight will continue our warming trend with lows anticipated to be several degrees warmer than last night, thanks to the increased moisture plus a LLJ strengthening up to 15 knots. Wednesday looks to be even warmer than today as southwesterly flow strengthens at all levels. Highs will reach the low 70s on the Plateau and mid 70s to near 80 elsewhere, which is 5+ degrees above normal for mid October.
High pressure over the Southeastern U. The high will continue to support pleasant dry weather with an easterly wind flow over the entire forecast area through Wednesday.
The quiet weather pattern will continue overnight, as the base of an amplifying ridge at the 500-mb level shifts eastward across the region, resulting in light westerly flow aloft.
602 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Water vapor loops are again showing a visually appealing cyclone moving across the region the past 24 hours. Radar imagery continues to show either upright or slantwise instability showers moving over the high plateau region. This is moving over a secondary cold front which can also be picked out by the southward moving ducted waves in the H2O imagery.
638 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 The high pressure center has moved off to the east and southeast flow has returned. Moisture will increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly flow under a broad mid level ridge will result in slightly warmer conditions tonight, with lows only dropping to the upper 40s/lower 50s.
1001 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure remains centered over the area tonight, then slides offshore mid to late week.
Overnight lows will be warmer than previous nights, ranging from around 50 in the north to 60 in the south. /15/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tomorrow: As deeper upper-level troughs dominate the weather off the West and East Coasts this afternoon, broad ridging is generally the rule across the central CONUS. A low pressure system is spinning over CO/WY, and a weak upper-level disturbance traversing the ridge axis can be seen in water vapor satellite imagery. /NF/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: Wednesday evening a nearly stacked low will be nearing the Great lakes region with its associated cold front dropping over the Ozarks.
Weak high pressure will bring quiet weather for most of of the area, though a weak wave could bring a few showers across northern Nevada Wednesday afternoon, mainly north of I-80.
After a windy and cooler day, a warming trend is forecast through the remainder of the work week with much less wind under the influence of high pressure.
728 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure continues to triumph on Wednesday as temperatures moderate.
Upper level Pacific trough axis was just offshore in OR and CA this evening. Trough will come inland overnight then pivot northeast Wednesday all the way to northern Idaho.
658 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Another day more typical of late-summer across the upper midwest as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s across much of the area under plenty of sunshine.
The strong gradient that was in place yesterday, producing gusty winds, has relaxed with the associated upper low now moving through CO-WY.
An upper level low across the Rockies is expected to emerge into the plains late tonight with an associated cold front bringing some stratus. much cooler temperatures. Ahead of this low. expect a brisk day across the region Wednesday as significantly cooler air advects across the local area along with breezy northwest winds.
648 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Key Points: -Cold front is expected to move through the region on Wednesday morning.
Mid level clouds have begun streaming across interior Northern California early this afternoon, ahead of a trough located just off the coast.
The higher possibilities of patchy fog and IFR ceilings will be further to the north and west (CLL, CXO, UTS) while the other sites are only expected to have MVFR ceilings with shallow fog. As such, the highest POPs (around 20%) will likely be over our coastal waters and SE coastal counties (ie. Lows for to- night to range from the lower/mid 60s north to the mid/upper 60s to the south. So, overall still pleasant fall weather but a little warmer with slowly increas- ing humidities.
Kavinsky (Issued 339 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: As high pressure lingers over the eastern CONUS tonight, dry conditions will continue. A weak frontal boundary will stall out somewhere in central Wisconsin early Wednesday before becoming a warm front as warm air advection increases ahead of the low.
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA 409 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure will remain anchored over the Southeast U. Southerly return flow around the high will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico inland. Shallow isentropic lift in the low-levels will result in increasing stratocu, especially tonight into tomorrow morning.
High pressure shifting eastward as a quick wave lifts northward over the area will drop cigs to MVFR before dawn for HBG/PIB. Tonight through Tomorrow: As deeper upper-level troughs dominate the weather off the West and East Coasts this afternoon, broad ridging is generally the rule across the central CONUS. A low pressure system is spinning over CO/WY, and a weak upper-level disturbance traversing the ridge axis can be seen in water vapor satellite imagery. /NF/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: Wednesday evening a nearly stacked low will be nearing the Great lakes region with its associated cold front dropping over the Ozarks.
Deep layer ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the forecast area through Wednesday, with temperatures seasonably warm and mostly dry conditions continuing. Low-level moisture over the southern Gulf will begin to get pulled north on Wednesday afternoon as an upper trough ejects into the plains. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 50s, with highs on Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s.
LLWS forecast to develop in most areas as the low level jet increases in response to upper wave shifting east into the central Plains. /Issued 219 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ The main concerns for this forecast will be rain chances with a cold front passage tomorrow, as well as toward the end of the week as the boundary lifts back north across the area. An upper low currently over the Central Rockies will lift out over the Central and Northern Plains throughout the day tomorrow. This will help push a cold front through the area at surface tomorrow afternoon and evening.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/ High pressure will remain anchored over the Southeast U. Southerly return flow around the high will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico inland. Shallow isentropic lift in the low-levels will result in increasing stratocu, especially tonight into tomorrow morning.
/Issued 335 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ Upper ridge slowly flattens through the short-term forecast period in response to the closed upper low shifting east across the northern plains into the Great Lakes.
614 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure remains centered over the area tonight, then slides offshore mid to late week.
Although, southeasterly to southerly return flow around the ridge over the southeast CONUS ridge that is associated with a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico is currently advecting moisture and clouds inland into the region based on current satellite imagery. /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/ High pressure will remain anchored over the Southeast U. Southerly return flow around the high will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico inland. Shallow isentropic lift in the low-levels will result in increasing stratocu, especially tonight into tomorrow morning.
Weak mid level ridging is over the nrn Gulf coast and expected to push eastward. Have tweaked min temps a bit lower for the update based on latest guidance showing mins a few degrees cooler. Dry weather, high pressure, and mostly mild easterly winds will continue through the rest of today with winds becoming more mild overnight with low level clouds increasing to scattered levels by Wednesday morning. Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower to upper 50s with cooler temperatures occurring in southeast Georgia and in the 60s for areas near the coast and along the St Johns River.
1028 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week.
Tonight will be warmer than last night by several degrees as the airmass will be warmer and surface winds will be stronger. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
South winds will prevail, but a weak cold front could briefly shift winds to the north during the day Wednesday. (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Mostly uneventful short-term forecast as southwesterly winds push warmer air into the region and skies remain clear. Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday as a low pressure system moves eastward over the Central Plains, sending a weak cold front into Texas. Available moisture in the lower levels has a few models pointing at storm development off the Glass Mountain and across Pecos county. Lows Wednesday night will once again be in the 50s, but expect a few 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos where overnight clouds will reduce radiational cooling.
Not much to discuss in regards to the short term forecast with stable flow aloft as a ridge builds over the Southwest and Great Basin.
600 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Dry high pressure will persist over the area through Wednesday, with temperatures back above normal in the middle of the week.
803 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week.