Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
241 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A crossing cold front this afternoon and tonight will have too little moisture for rain in most cases. Behind it, a cooler air mass will overspread the area and remain in place through the weekend. A cold front is currently entering the CWA from the northwest as seen on satellite loops and surface obs. The higher terrain could see a shower as well with help from upslope. As a cooler and drier air mass starts to filter into the region, temperatures will bottom out a few degrees below normal northwest of Pittsburgh, and closer to climatology elsewhere. along with upper troughing, will continue the dry and cool pattern through the short term period.
Also, gusty northeast flow will diminish as well, but still stay rather steady tonight behind a cold frontal passage and upper level trough/shear axis. The cold front was entering north and western TN and will slide southeast the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 60s.
An upper trough could bring a few hours of middle clouds as it moves across the area tonight, but think skies will be clear enough to allow temperatures to fall quickly before they arrive and after they depart.
Considerable cloud cover noted on satellite imagery courtesy of increased MSTR associated with an upper trof axis to the northwest, but enough breaks are showing up to allow steady warming into the upper 80s/near 90 this afternoon.
Cooler lows can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection and surface dew points dropping into the mid-upper 40s by early Friday morning.
1104 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Latest surface analysis places a cold front from Louisville, Kentucky back through Union City, Tennessee and southwest through Jonesboro, Arkansas. North of our CWA, another reinforcing cold front is pushing through Saint Louis. Forecast looks good, with temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. /issued 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ Current morning temperatures are in the low to mid 70s, with northerly winds. Temperatures this afternoon will rise to the low to mid 80s, with mostly sunny skies. By this afternoon cold front will approach northern portions of the Mid-South. By the weekend a ridge will build in keeping lows in the 50s and highs in the mid to low 70s.
Increasing southwest winds on Friday will bring gusty conditions over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
The upper level jet on the back side of the trough producing convection over Coahuila. The mid to upper trough will continue to move east-southeast into central Texas southwest into northeast Mexico this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the mid to upper 60s with highs on Friday in the lower to middle 80s. Otherwise, with cool high pressure becoming firmly established across the region by Friday night, temperatures forecast to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
139 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Tonight we continue to sit on the eastern periphery of the upper level high pressure system building over the Four Corners region. We will close out the work week with seasonable temperatures and dry conditions as the upper high to our west moves closer to the region and continues to dictate our weather.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued over South Central Texas due to a mid and upper level trough and heating providing forcing on a moist airmass (PWS of 1. With loss of heating after sunset, showers and thunderstorms will decrease this evening, although the trough may keep a few showers going overnight. On Friday, the trough gradually pushes off to the southeast allowing a drier and more subsident airmass to filter into our area resulting in only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate quicker Friday evening with loss of heating, decreasing moisture, and the trough exiting our area.
139 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A dry and cooler weather pattern will be in place across central Illinois through the weekend.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Cool Canadian high pressure is currently centered over Manitoba with surface ridging south into the Midwest. This has led to cool northerly flow funneling into Iowa today with highs in the low 60s north to low 70s south. Similar conditions like today are expected on Friday with a few more clouds but less smoke cover while the high pressure system settles into the eastern Great Lakes.
The remnants will continue its northeast track and later tonight an upper trough axis will pass, pushing a cold front well south of the area by early Friday. Additionally, our incoming airmass will be noticeably drier and cooler, and will remain that way most of the period. EURO trying to develop wave in the gulf into another tropical system, as well as an upper low over the OH valley.
223 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Cold front draped over central Indiana this afternoon will continue to push southward this evening and overnight. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s but a few isolated locations could drop into the upper 40s. Highs will be 10+ degrees cooler with afternoon highs upper 60s to right around 70 degrees. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep north to northeast winds pumping in the coolest air of the season so far this weekend. Expect lows to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s in our metro areas and the lower to mid 40s range in our cold spots.
An upper trough extends from the upper Midwest southwards into eastern Texas and the western Gulf through the near term. Downstream from this trough, deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the north-central Gulf coast and Deep South. Meanwhile, northerly flow dominates in the low levels, maintaining a layer of dry air around 850-700 mb per forecast soundings. The cloud cover should help keep temps on the cooler side, however, with highs only reaching the low to perhaps mid 80s across the area.
216 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A subtle cold front was moving southeast, marked by a line of towering cu and a wind shift into the northwest. The push of cooler and drier air behind the front is gradual.
A highly amplified ridge in the mid to upper levels will nudge closer to the Northern Plains on Friday, also nudging the baroclinic zone a bit further east. This will mean slightly warmer temperatures for much of the area, from the mid 60s east to the mid/upper 70s west. Expect lows in the 40s Friday night as the axis of the ridge moves over eastern Montana.
Otherwise, the main issue in the short term is the cooler temperatures and frost potential tonight. Skies look to remain clear tonight as high pressure continues to build in. This sets up for some pretty good radiational cooling, with the favored cold areas near and north of I-94 getting down into the lower 30s.
1202 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Cool and dry weather with breezy northeast winds can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. Area of stratus/stratocumulus behind the cold front has been pushing southward this morning, but only extends north to about I-80. Cold front has reached approximately I-70 early this morning with north winds developing behind the front and cooler, drier air moving in from the north. Cloud cover behind the front should start to decrease by afternoon as influence of high pressure approaching from the NW increases.
Winds may kick up as a dry cold front moves south through the region, however no more than a stray shower is anticipated. Today Through Friday Night What's left of Sally will continue to be pushed toward the east coast today as it gets absorbed into a longwave trough over the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a cold front currently located over southern Missouri will move into the region today and tonight on northwest/quasi-meridional flow aloft. But, the good news is the front will bring cooler temperatures.
A strong high pressure ridge remains over the region with southwest flow aloft ahead of the next system off the Pacific NW coast. Model guidance has temperatures of 95-100 in the Snake Plain today but smoke should keep temperatures around 10 degrees cooler. Next system arrives on Friday afternoon with a cold front and showers and thunderstorms increasing.
A few more showers and storms may develop south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line the next few hours, then expect dry weather across West central texas tonight and on Friday, as high pressure aloft begins to build in from the west. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
Otherwise, Friday will be dry with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Clear skies and light winds are in place this morning with high pressure centered over northern Minnesota. Farther east in Wisconsin, nearly steady temperatures in the low to mid 40s have lessened the threat from Polk to Rusk counties, therefore the Frost Advisory was cancelled there. This patchy overcast has cast doubt on frost formation again tonight and models are considerably warmer in spots, despite high pressure centered over northeastern MN and northern WI.
quiet and cold continues across the entire Great Lakes region late this evening as a large area of strong Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Low to mid level clouds are covering some areas of mostly northwestern lower Michigan and parts of northeast lower as a trough moves in ahead of the high pressure center building off to our west. Current forecast is for clouds to diminish, winds to decouple, and hence, temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for most inland locations and closer to the upper 40s to low 50s near the Lake Michigan and northern Lake Huron coasts with a northerly flow advecting warmer temperatures from over the warmer water.
A subtle cold front was moving southeast, marked by a line of towering cu and a wind shift into the northwest. The push of cooler and drier air behind the front is gradual.
The remnants will continue its northeast track and later tonight an upper trough axis will pass, pushing a cold front well south of the area by early Friday. Additionally, our incoming airmass will be noticeably drier and cooler, and will remain that way most of the period. EURO trying to develop wave in the gulf into another tropical system, as well as an upper low over the OH valley. Meanwhile, high surface pressure to our north will push drier and cooler air into the region.
901 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Slightly cooler/drier air is beginning to spread swd into the mid TN Valley in the wake of a frontal passage earlier this evening. Current temp trends are mainly in the lower/mid 70s, and considering temps upstream across cntrl KY into mid/west TN, early morning lows Fri are still on track to fall predom into the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
328 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Upper ridging will remain in place across the western U.
/issued 139 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ Tonight we continue to sit on the eastern periphery of the upper level high pressure system building over the Four Corners region. We will close out the work week with seasonable temperatures and dry conditions as the upper high to our west moves closer to the region and continues to dictate our weather.
1033 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge extends west southwestward across the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Forecast soundings indicate that the lower level inhibition may stay. With that said, a few showers and even a thunderstorm or two will be possible due to the the usual increase in nocturnal confluence in addition to possible ribbons of confluence between the ridge axis and Sally's remnants. A ridge across the Florida Straits will shift slightly east to southeastwards overnight.
By Sept 25-27, we could see an upper low deepening over the Great Basin while and upper ridge establishes over the E Pac. SFO Bridge Approach.
915 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 (Issued 900 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020) High pressure will move from the MN/Canadian border to nrn Lake MI by early Fri eve. Tomorrow will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s as high pressure dominates the region. This will bring fairly cooler temperatures again Friday night with better potential for frost across much of the CWA, however the expected coverage is uncertain at this point.
313 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Strong upper level ridge will remain in control through Friday, bringing dry weather with a warming trend. Ridge axis will shift east as a Pacific low moves inland Friday night.
Pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front will be rather tight so have mentioned prevailing NNE wind gusts upwards of 18kts for most terminal sites beginning by mid morning on Friday. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the mid to upper 60s with highs on Friday in the lower to middle 80s. Otherwise, with cool high pressure becoming firmly established across the region by Friday night, temperatures forecast to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Cold front draped over central Indiana this afternoon will continue to push southward this evening and overnight. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s but a few isolated locations could drop into the upper 40s. Highs will be 10+ degrees cooler with afternoon highs upper 60s to right around 70 degrees. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep north to northeast winds pumping in the coolest air of the season so far this weekend. Expect lows to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s in our metro areas and the lower to mid 40s range in our cold spots.
Sufficient moisture and lift ahead of a frontal trough will keep a low shower chance across this area into tonight possibly expanding farther to the south and east toward the I-4 corridor including Kissimmee, Orlando, Sanford, and Daytona Beach after midnight.
1034 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A weak and essentially dry cold front nearly bisecting the state from Southwest to Northwest this afternoon will slide southeast through the remainder of the state by late tonight. A large area of high pressure will bring cooler air into the region for the weekend. The northern mountains may get close to freezing each morning over the weekend. **Evening update** Cold front has sagged to the turnpike and is generally following the exit of the high cloud shield and should move through Harrisburg and Lancaster in the next hour or so. The air dips to around 0C at the top of the mixed layer (~4kft) at the NY border, which should yield maxes there in the u50s, at least on the higher elevations.
The subtropical ridge will build back into the central U.
An approaching area of low pressure will increase moisture across the region, with showers and thunderstorms possible beginning early Friday. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase through the afternoon as a cold front moves through the forecast area.
Expect some warming with mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures through the weekend as high pressure moves south over the Land of Enchantment.
By Sept 25-27, we could see an upper low deepening over the Great Basin while and upper ridge establishes over the E Pac. An upper trough off the Pacific Northwest will help push the stratus into SFO and OAK early tonight. Marine layer will initially be shallow then deepen during the night as the upper trough approaches and 500 mb heights fall. SFO Bridge Approach.
231 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Main forecast challenge continues to be localized elevated fire concerns as upper trough pushes through the area bringing gusty to windy conditions. cooler temperatures and higher humidities Friday. Westerly flow from upper trough clearing smoke from a large part of the central Valley. Some returns also showing on radar as moisture getting pulled into this trough from old tropical system is moving across far southern portions of the forecast area. Upper trough will move into the area tonight. the main portion of the upper trough moves across the area.
Overnight temperatures may be a little cooler than models suggest with haze increasing slightly this evening under clear cloud cover overnight and light winds near the surface. Roxy Previous Discussion: Upper ridging will remain in place across the western U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 79 60 76 58 / 20 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 75 56 75 55 / 20 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 75 55 76 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 70 52 72 48 / 30 0 0 0 0.
Cooler and drier air continues to filter into Middle Tennessee this evening with dewpoints now down into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Meanwhile, high surface pressure to our north will push drier and cooler air into the region.
919 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Still dealing with an elongated trough of low pressure aloft that late this evening extended from S TX into NE TX and S AR. This lower PWAT atmosphere will continue to bleed its way south and southwest late tonight through the day Friday bringing with it drier humidity and slightly milder temperatures. Pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front will be rather tight so have mentioned prevailing NNE wind gusts upwards of 18kts for most terminal sites beginning by mid morning on Friday.
Otherwise, no noteworthy changes in the forecast, with seasonably cool lows in the mid to upper 40s outside Chicago and highs primarily only in the lower to mid 60s for most on Friday, with some locations in far northeast IL probably held shy of 60F. The threat of lake shore flooding has remained on the low side through the day, with waves hovering around 5 feet per area buoy reports.
Quiet conditions are expected through the duration of the forecast period as ridging remains entrenched over the central CONUS.
637 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front has moved through the region and high pressure is building into the state.
High pressure at the surface was strong over the upper Midwest, forcing a Great Lakes airmass into the Ozarks.
339 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 An upper-level trough will influence one more day of near to below average temperatures across the area today, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Smoke aloft should persist Saturday, as a high-amplitude upper-level ridge shifts east across the Northern Plains. Southeasterly breezes will again be on the increase, perhaps gusting to around 30 mph (above most guidance) as incoming low pressure tightens the pressure gradient. High temperatures Saturday will be a good 10 degrees warmer than Friday across the board.
A cold front progressing southward will clear the southern Valley by 12Z with drier air gradually working in aloft in this northerly flow pattern, however, the stubborn low- level moisture and some upslope component across the E TN and SW VA mountains will keep the clouds locked in place, and cannot rule out an isolated shower in the higher terrain before 14Z. A mid/upper longwave trough will deepen across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today with its axis shifting into the NE U. This will result in a N to NE flow of cooler, drier air through the period.
315 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 The upper ridge currently stretching from the Four Corners region northward will get kicked eastward by the upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. Despite the upper ridge moving over the FA high temps will not be all that different from yesterday as thicknesses stay quasi-steady. Winds will also stay relatively light and mostly out of the east to northeast as surface ridging stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward. Overnight will remain quiet as well as the upper high sits overhead with continued surface ridging. The lack of any significant weather will be due to steady ridging overhead.
An upper trough is actually coming through the mid state this morning, but with so little moisture present, the radar remains echo-free. High pressure is in the process of building into Middle Tennessee, and it's going to stay around for awhile.
Otherwise, the main issue in the short term is the cooler temperatures and frost potential tonight. Skies look to remain clear tonight as high pressure continues to build in. This sets up for some pretty good radiational cooling, with the favored cold areas near and north of I-94 getting down into the lower 30s. High pressure will start pushing off to the east Saturday as a tightening pressure gradient leads to strengthening southerly return flow.
217 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Smoke aloft and off-and-on weak easterly flow will keep temperatures a bit under guidance again today, but highs will be a bit warmer than the past couple days and reach the low 80s.
/issued 919 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ Still dealing with an elongated trough of low pressure aloft that late this evening extended from S TX into NE TX and S AR. This lower PWAT atmosphere will continue to bleed its way south and southwest late tonight through the day Friday bringing with it drier humidity and slightly milder temperatures.
238 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Drier low-level air (dewpoints in the 50s) is currently working into northeast OK, and strengthening surface ridging conditions will ensure a dry and pleasant weekend. Expect highs today generally around 80/lower 80s with slightly cooler afternoon highs for the weekend.
With the upper level trough pushing off to the east today it will allow for northerly flow aloft and at the surface to bring in a drier airmass over South Central Texas. At the same time the ridge over the Southwest United States will build to the east and bring subsidence across the area. With the ridge building in thing there is opportunity for temps to climb a bit, to near normal values for mid September. The upper ridge will continue to build across much of Central and North Texas, but the drier air in place will help temperatures to only warm into the mid 80s for much of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. The ridge building across the state for the beginning of the weekend will also keep TD 22 meandering across the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Have updated the grids and zones to include the latest tropical updates from the NHC in relation to Tropical Depression 22, including tropical storm condition probabilities across portions of Deep South Texas and across the lower Texas coastal waters. The system is expected to slowly meander northward until turning west on Saturday when high pressure begins to build across the CONUS and eastern Gulf.
As the flow tightens ahead of an cold front and associated upper-level low, winds look to increase during the day today. Behind the front, temperatures will be much cooler, below normal for a change, on Saturday with widespread cloud cover and precip.
Easterly component surface flow will prevail with ridging across eastern Kansas and temperatures a tad below seasonal climo. Ridge aloft will amplify across the Plains on Saturday ahead of the upper low/trof moving from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Southerly low level and surface flow will increase across central Kansas in response to the deepening lee side trof over the high Plains.
Another warm day expected as ridging aloft prevails along with dry low and mid levels, producing another dry day. As the ridge axis aloft moves off to our east, the next significant trough aloft will move across Montana and western Wyoming, sending a cold front to our western counties by late Saturday.
TWH Strong upper level ridge will remain in control through Friday, bringing dry weather with a warming trend. Ridge axis will shift east as a Pacific low moves inland Friday night. Temperatures today are running 6-9 degrees warmer than yesterday and a similar trend should be observed on Friday as the air mass overall turns warmer. Cooke City is warmer than Billings, for example.
In the upper levels, high pressure over the Panhandles and much of the Desert Southwest will begin to flatten out today as an H5 low comes onshore over Pacific Northwest. High pressure aloft should inhibit any rain chances through the short term. Other noteworthy item is the low potential for elevated fire conditions on Saturday as wind speeds pick up to around 20-25 mph across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle.