Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LIGHT WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S.
653 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS.
447 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A WEAK RIDGE OVER TX AND THE PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTER-MTN WEST. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE INTER- MTN WEST SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY AND PHASE TOGETHER DURING THIS TIME. BY THUR A RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE PAC COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO TX. NW/N FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON THUR. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A NOW WEAKER SURGE OF COOLER AIR LATE FRI. GFS HAS A VERY POTENT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
1153 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BREEZE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF ZONE 4.
345 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
ONCE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS, RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST COAST.
AS WELL AS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS OCCURRING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS DOMINATING THE PATTERN WITH CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES EXPECTED ALONG THE AREA WATER BODIES AND IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BY TOMORROW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY.
523 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A PREDOMINANT ZONAL MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN ACRS THE REGION WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC TODAY. IT WILL BRIDGE A FRONTAL TROF DRAPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE TRACK OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A SHALLOW NERLY FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL THIS MRNG THAT WILL VEER SLOWLY TO THE E BY AFTN. A DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FURTHER HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN WHAT THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. AS A RESULT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BECOME AWASH IN RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER REPOSITIONS SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
652 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER TODAY.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH STRETCHING FROM EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM COLD UPPER LOW FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST US.
1048 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
629 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 MVFR/VFR ATTM WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS STRONG CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OVER THE ARKLATEX MID-LATE TAF CYCLE. IF HIGH TEMPS STAY AROUND FREEZING. WENT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN GUIDANCE WITH MOST OF THE REGION STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO TRANSITION SLEET INTO SNOW.
AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE ALL WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK.
/ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER TROF REACHES CENTRAL TX EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW FCST TO TRACK NE TWD THE FL PANHANDLE BY WED EVE AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
914 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ALL OF THESE THINGS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE. EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING 25 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AND A FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BALLED UP VORT MAXIMA LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF THE DECK SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BE GENERATED TO DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NOT TO MENTION LESS INSTABILITY BISECTING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES REACH THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE LEAPS AND BOUNDS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW READILY NOTED ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DIG ESE ACROSS SRN NM. AND PRECIP SHIELD WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST N OF THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER S AS YOU APPROACH THE RED RIVER.
THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
The high at Helena could be too warm but should westerly winds become a little stronger than forecast the forecast high could be reached. Confidence was not high enough for a cooler high to change the forecast at that location. However, ceilings will steadily lower from north-to-south later this evening in association with a surface cold front dropping south from Alberta.
THE UPPER LOW BRINGING THE NEXT WINTER STORM TO ARKANSAS IS OVER NEW MEXICO.
WARM NOSES OF +9C AROUND 810 MB AT KFWD AND +4 AROUND 730 MB AT KOUN AS OF 00Z SUGGEST THAT FIRST PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY MELT INTO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DO NOT ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND BECOMES A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
923 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
710 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 UPDATE A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY SLIDING SE ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT NEAR GREEN BAY WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG IT. CONSIDERING ANOTHER BRIEFER BURST OF SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOTS OF CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
649 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRAZES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE SUNSHINE HAS TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING IN THE SW LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND BECOMES A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
531 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASING MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
Here, temperatures will remain above freezing with rain developing after midnight. /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/ Main concern is with the amount of snow tonight and the exact track of the compact and potent upper low. It is possible that the current Winter Weather Advisory may need to be extended about a row of counties to the south which would include San Angelo if the track of the low digs a little more. Went with rain/snow for San Angelo to San Saba with about a half inch but this is the area to be watched that may need to be upgraded if the upper low shifts a little further south.
MEANWHILE A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
WITH A COLD FRONT AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE BEHIND IT BY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
AND IS NOW JUST GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WILL GRADUALLY TURN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MORNING AND GRADUALLY PICK UP A BIT OF STRENGTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
913 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 FOR SE TX SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING WITH FCST OF PCPN DE- VELOPING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF. UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NM WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS N TX. AS THE TROUGH NEARS EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP IN WAA PATTERN THAT WILL SPREAD OVER SETX. FWD SOUNDING HAS DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER AND THE MODEL PROFILES FOR TOMORROW MORNING HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET/SNOW FOR AREA JUST TO THE NORTH OF KCLL AROUND 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER NWRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH NOW COVER NEARLY ALL OUR CWA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW. WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC COAST. NW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY.
/ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ STRONG UPPER LOW. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
943 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOW.
712 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THE SMALL ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ARE ALL MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM EASTERN AZ INTO WESTERN NM.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COLD TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT YET NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS NOT CONDUCIVE TO FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN. THE COASTAL TROUGH WL THUS INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN OVER THE MSA OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE WL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING THE FREEZING LINE TO EDGE SOUTH INTO WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE THOSE AREAS FALL AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE MAKING RAIN THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALOFT AND NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE QUESTION IS HOW SHALLOW THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE WILL BE. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.
DESPITE THE LATE ARRIVING SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD AREA-WIDE, WITH 3 PM TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
However, ceilings will steadily lower from north-to-south later this evening in association with a surface cold front dropping south from Alberta.
654 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT NEAR GREEN BAY WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG IT. CONSIDERING ANOTHER BRIEFER BURST OF SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOTS OF CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
An upper level low, currently over central Arizona per latest water vapor imagery, will eject eastward tonight across southern New Mexico and west Texas. Model soundings indicate a deep moisture profile overnight as well, and while temperatures in the lowest 100mb tonight will start out above freezing, the remainder of the sounding remains below zero, thus the primary precipitation type should be snow, after a brief initial period of light rain. 5C/km as the low passes overhead tonight, which could potentially provide the additional lift necessary to amplify snow amounts substantially in a localized area. Forecast highs tomorrow are in the low to middle 60s across the area, with around 70 degrees possible for the Rio Grande Valley.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 26 37 26 39 / 10 80 90 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 22 37 29 39 / 10 40 90 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 23 37 25 39 / 10 30 90 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 18 35 24 37 / 10 30 70 50 NC.
AND WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP. WE ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL. UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
632 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ALL OF THESE THINGS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE. EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING 25 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AND A FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BALLED UP VORT MAXIMA LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF THE DECK SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BE GENERATED TO DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NOT TO MENTION LESS INSTABILITY BISECTING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES REACH THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE LEAPS AND BOUNDS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
/ISSUED 338 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO NORTH MS. WHICH COULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
613 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
510 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015 High pressure sitting over Texas today was allowing temperatures to be a bit warmer than the past few days.
940 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM THAT WILL RACE ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. RAPID MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LIFT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LATE ARRIVING SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD AREA-WIDE, WITH 3 PM TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A NEW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
WITH TEMPS FALLING AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES LATE WED NIGHT. WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING. IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TAKES AN EAST-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW A MOIST PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AFTER 18Z. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
655 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
320 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2015 A FAST MOVING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING MIXING IN THE VALLEYS SO HAVE THE LOWERED TEMPS IN MANY VALLEYS BELOW GUIDANCE.
AND A LITTLE RAIN WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING. MEANWHILE A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
935 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2015 CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH STRONG INVERTED TROUGHING INTO OUR AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SURGES VERY MOIST AND WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA. WITH THE WARM AIR SURGING OVERHEAD AND A COLD DOWN VALLEY LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW KEEPING THE SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME TIME. SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN. AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FAR SOUTH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. WHICH MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A SNOW AND SLEET MIXTURE AT THE ONSET AND THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SITTING NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ALREADY. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FREEZING TONIGHT. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT UNDER THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED BEFORE.
235 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW OCCURS OVERNIGHT. NE OK INTO NW AR SHOULD HAVE A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THIS EVENING WHICH TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDERS. WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR. WITH A CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICING AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SFC TEMPS ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE FREEZING.
1034 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2015 High pressure will dominate the weather through midweek, delivering dry conditions and mild temperatures.
153 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EXPAND INLAND BY MIDWEEK, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
237 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 THERE WERE POCKETS OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVEN THERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH FREEZING.
COLD FRONT NEARING TX-OK BORDER AND WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH CLL BY 13-15Z.
330 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO THE LOWER 30S IN NORTH ALABAMA. THE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION QUICKLY OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COMBINATION BY MID MORNING AND THEN TO ALL RAIN BY 18Z ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DURATION OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY MORNING.
BUT MIXTURE OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ALSO 16/07Z-16/18Z. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH SUNSET AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HIGHER PWATS. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEHIND THE FRONT AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A MODEST 700MB TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY 18Z MON. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT MINOR TROUGH WITH SOME POPS ARRIVES MON NIGHT. STRONGER TROUGHING SHOULD DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
STRONG COLD FRONT AT 1730Z WAS STALLING ABOUT 20NE PVW BUT WILL RESUME ITS SW PUSH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FROPA AROUND 22Z AT PVW AND 00Z OR SO AT LBB. THE FIRST COMPLICATION WILL BE THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OOZING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL LEAD TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THIS AREA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. DRYING EXPECTED TO START MONDAY THOUGH ALSO STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE.
AND PINE RIDGE. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT REX BLOCKING PATTERN HAS SET UP OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS MONDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
300 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED ALONG A KBCE-KAIB-KMTJ-KLXV LINE AT 2 PM MST. NAM INDICATED AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHILE GFS AND ECMWF WERE A BIT MORE UNDERSTATED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH SOME PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK. THE DOMINANT MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RESIDED OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEK HAS RETROGRADED OFFSHORE.