Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The GFS shows axis of low level ridge nudging south towards central Florida. With a weak upper trough holding close to southern sections and a very moist air mass, won't change current forecast which has low chances for showers/storms overnight from about Melbourne south. There's a small chance for showers/storms at the coastal terminals, mainly KMLB south around and a little after midnight, with the highest chances down towards KFPR and KSUA.
Even with a continuing modest flow, more inverted trough influence should bring another round of storms Wednesday. Tomorrow will see another inverted trough move through the area with similar (but slightly lower) pwats in place and slightly more flow in the 700-500mb layer.
936 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 2016 Low pressure moves east tonight.
1151 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will continue to slowly build south over our region, and then shift offshore late in the week.
Scattered thunderstorms will once again be possible with some of the higher resolution models favoring the west and south. 88 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the region through Wednesday.
724 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will build into the area tonight into Wednesday then move offshore by Wednesday night.
1109 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight and will settle south off the coast on Wednesday.
1020 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeastern states will sink southward overnight as a cold front moves into the area from the north.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 73 94 / 20 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 91 72 91 / 20 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 72 91 72 92 / 20 10 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 68 86 / 40 40 30 30.
89/GSatterwhite/08 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
944 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will continue to slowly build south over our region, and then shift off shore late in the week.
Otherwise, simply a limited coverage of diurnal cu again for Wednesday under the presence of increasingly dry/stable mid level ridging.
Today turned quite active as deep moisture continues to interact with cooler than normal air at the mid-levels and a weak upper low over the central part of the state. Most models take this low northward and then northwestward through northern Arizona over the next few days.
238 AM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 A low pressure system will move along the Idaho/Utah border today. A cold front will move through the area Friday morning. Also expect much cooler temperatures for Friday. High pressure will develop over the area and remain in control for the rest of the forecast.
Still expected MVFR/IFR CIGs to arrive before 12Z at most TAF locations with the lowest CIGs at MAF coming in below BKN010. The rain will break up the lower CIGs with VFR conditions expected all locations by 16Z. /issued 244 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/ A mid level trough, that has been hanging out just east of the forecast area the last few days, continues to slowly edge westward today as upper ridging over the SE ConUS builds into SE TX. As a result of increased moisture, lift and instability, showers and thunderstorms continue to affect portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and SE Permian Basin this afternoon. Not completely certain on how far west the upper trough axis will shift by tomorrow but for now, best chances look to be along and east of a Hobbs to Van Horn line.
Increased cloud cover and rain today should help keep temperatures just slightly cooler than yesterday.
348 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 The synoptic scale pattern over the next 10 days will feature strong upper level disturbances and associated cold fronts progressing southeastward out of Canada into the northern and central plains. The first of these systems will pass across western Kanaas late Friday with a strong cold front.
Deep layer high pressure over the Southeastern States continues to shift southward. As a result temperatures will generally trend warmer than climatological norms. As minor waves propagating westward along the southern periphery of the high, will likely tap into the uncapped instability over the Gulf and generate some spotty convection. Models are projecting increasing deep layer subsidence over the Panhandle and South Central Alabama counties as high pressure aloft shifts southward. The minor waves moving along the northern periphery of the high in the westerlies should be able to tap into the underlying instability and pooled moisture during the mid afternoon timeframe.
with activity favoring the higher terrain. winds aloft remain light although storms should show an east southeast drift today as influences of northern rockies trough start arriving. This will send a little cooler conditions across the northern zones for Friday and provide for a bit more shear in the wind department for Friday afternoon and evening.
306 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure extending from southern TX through much of the southeastern CONUS, while an upper level trough remained over the intermountain west. At the surface, temperatures were generally on track from the previous forecast (as of 2 am), with temps in the low to mid 70s. There might be a strong storm or two, though the highest threat with any storm that develops today will be locally heavy rain and lightning.
659 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 Weak area of high pressure will hold across SE Michigan through this period.
340 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 Weak upper level ridging will center itself just north of the southeast Georgia this afternoon, with a light northeasterly flow aloft across the region. Low/mid level ridge will continue to weaken and shift east, but the ridge axis will center itself near the FL/GA border today. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices of 100- 105F.
407 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A cold front will cross the area today.
336 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 A transition of flow regimes continues early this morning with a pronounced upper level high up near Churchill MB with a training trough back into northern California. A lobe of energy along the southwestern periphery of the Canadian low looks to sharpen over the next 24 hours as it makes its way into the lower 48. Some of the higher resolution guidances suggest that we'll see initiation before noon.
Broad upper level ridging should essentially keep us dry. I went closer to the NAM solution for highs as the strong cold front moves in. associated with a stout trough for August standards. The cold front will be strong,and with at least moderate instability, we stand a decent chance of severe weather Friday afternoon/evening.
Storms continue to develop along a cold front across northern North Dakota. Thunderstorms have intensified along the United States-Canadian border since 0130 UTC thanks to increasingly focused low-level ascent associated with an approaching cold frontal zone. An approaching cold front will then be the focus for thunderstorms across northwest and west central North Dakota this evening spreading southeast across the state by Thursday morning. Cooler more stable air to the north will limit the thunderstorm potential north. As this feature moves across the baroclinic zone left from the recent cold front more abundant showers and thunderstorms will form but now mainly along and south of the North Dakota border Friday.
At the surface, a strong cold front was draped from west to east across northern Wyoming, and was progged to begin pushing south today.
Moisture levels are starting to decrease as high pressure regains a foothold over the region. /issued 246 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb ridge across the southeast United States extending westward across the northern Gulf coast into south Texas will allow subsidence to continue to increase across the CWA tonight into Thursday.
607 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A cold front will cross the area today.
The models agree well enough on the large scale pattern of a general ridge over the west coast with an undercutting trof extending from the central US back southwest.
A weak upper level trough over the western states will keep fair weather and near seasonal temperatures through the forecast period. Expect alternating intervals of slightly warmer/cooler temperatures for inland locations, meanwhile, coastal locations will see little to no day to day variability.
408 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 An area of rainfall has persisted across the Stockton Plateau and Big Bend Area overnight, corresponding with continued moisture return and enhanced lift under a midlevel trough. Most of the area today, with the exception of higher terrain to the west, will see dewpoints well into the 60s, with temperatures expected to range from around 80 degrees to around 90 degrees, several degrees cooler than yesterday due to increased moisture and cloudcover. Given the continued presence of the midlevel trough and ample low and midlevel moisture, thunderstorm chances will expand northwestward this afternoon, with the best chance of storms roughly along and east of a line extending from near Hobbs to north of Van Horn.
The deep layer ridge which has been located north of our forecast area for the past several days will continue to drift slowly southward, and will be over our region by later today. There is good agreement among the Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) that the highest PoPs today (60%) will be around the Tallahassee area.
Otherwise, a strong cold front will descend out of the northwest across our region through Thursday afternoon. The models also show a strong 50h trough axis in Canada slowly dropping southeast and through our region through Friday night with several vorts embedded within it. These vorts along with the cold front will bring good chances of showers and storms from Thursday into Friday evening. With deep instability and good wind shear on Thursday afternoon and evening, there is a slight risk of severe weather along and behind the cold front. Friday will be a much below normal and breezy day with highs only in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
129 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak ridge will be across the region into Friday.
1217 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 MVFR conditions will become prevalent in the next few hours with all the low level moisture present, and light variable winds. The upper pattern continues to have a broad upper low pressure trough over the eastern plains, the Bermuda High Pressure over the southeast U. Rain amounts have been lower today with the highest amounts over southeast AR.
246 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak low pressure system over California and Nevada will produce isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms today.
High pressure over the eastern third of the country will dominate Indiana weather through Friday.
357 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Early this Thursday morning a cold front stretched across North Dakota just north of Interstate 94. Cooler and drier air will move in from the northwest this morning and bring an end to precipitation from northwest to southeast through the day. As this feature moves across the baroclinic zone left from the recent cold front more abundant showers and thunderstorms will form but now mainly along and south of the North Dakota border Friday.
315 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Main forecast concern in the short term will be timing of cold front on Friday. At 07z the cold front was just starting to enter the northern plains region with a stronger push southward across eastern Montana. Low pressure was located over northwest South Dakota. After that, at least for tonight, the front slows its southward progression into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper flow with a better push south into western Nebraska as initial piece of short wave energy drops into the region ahead of the main trough. System is expected to move off late Friday night as progressive upper trough sweeps through the region.
646 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Thunderstorms today and tonight will be mainly associated with a moisture increase from the west, strong heating, and convergence into the lee-side trough. The upper ridging has weakened a little but it should continue to help limit coverage with h5 temperatures -6 to -7 C. Precipitable water will be around 2 inches and there should be a relatively slow storm movement associated with the upper ridging. We again followed the high maximum temperature guidance based on the bias of late and upper ridging.
The drying trend will continue these next few days as the mid/upper level ridge builds in from the east. We should also see warmer temps given the diurnal nature of this pattern. with the upper ridge strengthening over the state. Sharp mid level ridging axis just offshore and should be helping to suppress the convection. With the abundant moisture in place over the area am expecting as the mid level ridge axis moves onshore around mid morning showers should become more common transitioning quickly to thunderstorms along the seabreeze.
A cold front was diving south through the area early this morning causing winds to turn out of the north northeast. Temperatures today will be a good 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs expected to be in the 70s.
1113 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2016 Weak upper level low was centered near Pueblo at mid- afternoon, with scattered slow moving tsra across most of the area. With little wind shear and weak steering currents, main threat from storms this afternoon into this evening will be heavy rain, as convection rotates slowly around the upper low. On Thursday, upper low drifts northward into nern CO, though rather diffuse upper trough hangs back across much of the state through the day. Moisture levels change little across the region, so expect another round of afternoon convection, with best coverage of storms again over the higher terrain and along the NM border.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): (Today through Friday): Even fewer showers and thunderstorms are noted this morning over the coastal waters and near shore areas as high pressure builds back westward. and the 00Z sounding noted the lower moisture values in the mid levels.
447 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 The southeast remains under the influence of ridging aloft and at the surface. Short term models are in good agreement as the upper ridging flattens out through the short term period, allowing increased moisture into west and north GA this afternoon.
338 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak area of low pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. Expect slightly lower, but still warmer than average, temperatures along with enough instability over the Sierra for a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Upper level trof still influencing the weather over the region.
A deep layer ridge will remain in place across the area, so scattered showers and thunderstorms will mainly be forced by the diurnal sea breeze circulation, and the associated outflow boundaries, each afternoon and early evening. Although some models show a weak surface level trough developing across Georgia, drier air is expected to be prevalent at the mid levels, which could inhibit the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Temperatures will also remain around climatological values, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s inland, and highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s along the coast.
334 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over the southern Canadian Rockies and ridging over the Northern Plains and lee-side of the Rocky Mountains. where the higher chances of showers/thunderstorms will occur.
Moisture associated with the upper trof moving across southern Canada is approaching the international boundary. A stronger push of cooler air will cross the Canadian border and push south into central Montana after midnight tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop behind the front and become widespread across the area Thursday as the trof moves through. Enough cooler air will accompany the front to lower snow levels to around 7000 feet allowing for light snow to fall on the higher peaks of Glacier National Park and over King's Hill.
423 AM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak upr level trof wl be ovr the area today and tonight.
248 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Please refer to our web site, Flood Warnings and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service for details on the major and record river flooding that is still ongoing on the lower end of the Amite River basin along with many areas of backwater flooding from Pointe Coupee Parish (False River area) to near Lake Maurepas. Overall, a fairly typical summer weather regime will persist into the weekend with a Bermuda ridge extending from the the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This is in response to increased boundary layer convergence and focused isentropic ascent from the Permian Basin to the Ouachita Mountains, which is being driven by the approach of a decent 500mb trough across the northern high plains.
The majority of the energy of this wave will miss us, but we will see increased winds, especially in the higher elevations of the West-Central and Boise Mountains, today through tomorrow. The strongest sustained winds in the lower elevations will be near 15 mph this afternoon and early evening, and 20 mph tomorrow afternoon and early evening, in the Baker Valley.
Weak riding aloft is expected this afternoon as broad upper-level trough shifts farther east over Eastern Pennsylvania. Would also expect to see more sunshine today and thus warmer temperatures. High pressure at the surface will be bolstered by weak ridging aloft Friday, which will result in a relatively drier end to the work week.
The highest chance of TSRA (60%) is across the FL Big Bend, around KTLH between 18Z and 22Z as the sea breeze front moves inland. The deep layer ridge which has been located north of our forecast area for the past several days will continue to drift slowly southward, and will be over our region by later today. There is good agreement among the Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) that the highest PoPs today (60%) will be around the Tallahassee area.
228 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Thunderstorms today and tonight will be mainly associated with a moisture increase from the west, strong heating, and convergence into the lee-side trough. The upper ridging has weakened a little but it should continue to help limit coverage with h5 temperatures -6 to -7 C. Precipitable water will be around 2 inches and there should be a relatively slow storm movement associated with the upper ridging. We again followed the high maximum temperature guidance based on the bias of late and upper ridging.
302 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front over the area will drift off to the southeast today to allow weak high pressure to briefly build over the region through friday before shifting to the southeast.
A weak cold front will gradually move south of the area through Friday before dissipating.
As a cold front approaches the area on Friday a better chance for showers and storms exists.
134 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern supports thunderstorms but coverage should remain limited because of lingering upper ridging and lack of strong triggers. Followed the higher maximum temperature guidance because of the recent bias. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.
The synoptic scale pattern over the next 10 days will feature strong upper level disturbances and associated cold fronts progressing southeastward out of Canada into the northern and central plains. The first of these systems will pass across western Kansas late Friday with a strong cold front.
607 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front over the area will drift off to the southeast today to allow weak high pressure to briefly build over the region through friday before shifting to the southeast.
231 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A weak cold front will drop south through the region today bringing a chance of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west overnight and will crest over the region on Friday.
Although large scale forcing will be ill-defined today, omega fields indicate broad lift over the region as we remain on the the western periphery of an upper ridge.
Moist conditions in the low-levels will promote the development of low clouds early this morning. Moderate flash flooding will still be possible over the warned areas mainly on some of the larger creeks, as the heavy rain has moved off the locations with the highest totals and radar estimates.
Weak riding aloft is expect this afternoon as broad upper-level trough shifts farther east over Eastern Pennsylvania. Would also expect to see more sunshine today and thus warmer temperatures. High pressure at the surface will be bolstered by weak ridging aloft Friday, which will result in a relatively drier end to the work week.
Expect storm development along a weak boundary late today across northeast Illinois into northern Indiana in an area of weak convergence in a theta e ridge. A seasonally strong upper level trof will move into the Upper Great Lakes Region this weekend.
Upper level trof will continue to move east across Mexico and into Texas late tonight and then across Texas Saturday into Saturday night.
625 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Brief high pressure tonight. Warm front Saturday.
651 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. This will continue into the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating plus the passage of the 850 mb thermal trough, and have adjusted PoPs to this thinking. High pressure will provide dry conditions through the weekend with a warming trend in temperatures.
845 PM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 Upper ridge was sliding east and allowing flow to back to the southwest as an upper trough moves closer to the Pacific Northwest coast. Warm and windy weather can be expected over the next couple of days as ridging remains overhead with downslope flow at the surface.
728 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure will build into the area promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. With the below freezing temperatures the freeze warning remains in effect from midnight through 9am Saturday morning for the entire forecast area.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, a large area of high pressure will progress eastward through the Tennessee Valley overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an anticyclone will be centered over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight.
820 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure will return for the weekend.