Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Rain chances will accompany crossing low pressure tonight and Wednesday morning.
A cool moist upper low will remain across the area through Wednesday. A second and more energetic upper low will stall over the Pacific Northwest through the end of the week with a strong southerly flow over the Great Basin.
For now, forecasted lows in the upper 30s to near 40 for these areas sunrise Wed, with most other locales in the lower 40s. On Wednesday an upper low/trough will move east across the four corners region as moisture and lift begins to develop across southwest Kansas based on the isentropic lift developing by the GFS in the 800mb to 700mb level.
With warmer temps, am expecting this to be mainly afternoon activity. For Wednesday, went between the slightly cooler, wetter NAM and warmer, wetter GFS, with scattered, mainly afternoon showers/storms and temps in the 80s.
255 PM MST TUE MAY 17 2016 A large low pressure system will continue to move through Arizona tonight and Wednesday. As the low pressure system moves toward New Mexico Wednesday, clearing skies will spread from west to east during the day.
Early this morning a mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes region still extended southwestward toward the central U. With sufficient moisture in place, this trough provided enough mid-level lift to produce scattered rain showers across much of east central Kansas and portions of northeast Kansas early this morning. Model soundings show the low clouds this morning gradually lifting by this afternoon and may scatter out some across far northern Kansas. As a result, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer in that region, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s from south to north across the CWA.
115 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The low will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and deserts Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain solidly below normal, but should run close to 10 degrees warmer than today.
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Rain chances will accompany crossing low pressure tonight and Wednesday morning. Though with a broad northeast CONUS upper trough in place, clouds should be slow to decrease.
637 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure will build into the area from then north and provide VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Some diurnal cu (5-6 kft) can be expected again Wednesday afternoon, but drier low level air tomorrow associated with high pressure will keep coverage FEW-SCT. First though, secondary cold front which is more of a demarcation of drier air is currently pushing southward through Lenawee and Monroe counties. Showers and a few thunderstorms developed along this line this afternoon across Washtenaw county as daytime heating and lingering mid level trough produced a couple hundred joules of cape. Large area of high pressure is building into the Great Lakes and will maintain control on our weather for the rest of the forecast period.
A second round of rain is expected this evening and overnight, as a cold front begins pushing east southeast across the region.
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slow moving cold front sagging south out of the Great Lakes will keep the mention of rain in the forecast into Wednesday.
The cooler guidance values involving MOS were followed, even lowering some of them a couple of degrees here and there in our eastern zones.
An upper low interacting with a surface front will keep rain showers over parts of central Indiana into the overnight hours.
A weak secondary push of cooler air will push into the cwa, with CAA in place through the night. Therefore expect decent cooling and have dropped lows a few more degrees than previous forecast with high pressure building overhead. Could see a few sites across the northeast where coldest air in place drop into the upper 30s with the remainder of the CWA in the low to mid 40s.
First though, secondary cold front which is more of a demarcation of drier air is currently pushing southward through Lenawee and Monroe counties. Showers and a few thunderstorms developed along this line this afternoon across Washtenaw county as daytime heating and lingering mid level trough produced a couple hundred joules of cape. Large area of high pressure is building into the Great Lakes and will maintain control on our weather for the rest of the forecast period.
Cold front will push into the area tonight keeping the potential for convection going. Coastal trough begins to develop Wednesday night, setting the stage for additional convection.
This will occur as the low-level jet veers to more southwest- westerly, cutting off moisture transport/isentropic upglide. Mid-level confluent flow and low-level ridging over the region on Wednesday should result in partly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures, although readings are expected to remain below normal.
The low pressure system has settled well south of the state near Las Vegas, leaving northerly mid level winds to exert a little orographic lift this afternoon and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Rain showers continue over areas east of the Highway 65 corridor as a low level jet continues to nose into the region. Another cool day will occur today as highs only warm into the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
258 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure will gradually build in from the west tonight into wednesday.
341 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A weak cold front will finish moving through the Twin Tiers southward this afternoon to evening, allowing scattered showers to exit the region. High pressure behind this front will bring mainly dry weather for the next few days, along with temperatures trending a bit warmer.
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 (Tonight and Tomorrow) An upper low is located over southeastern Arizona this afternoon with the forecast area under a southwest flow aloft. A dryline is located west of the forecast area and a slow moving cold front is moving south through the central CWA. Storms have initiated this afternoon over our southwestern counties along the cold front. Lows tonight behind the cold front and under rainy and cloudy skies will be in the mid 50s over the Big Country and the upper 50s to around 60 degrees over the remainder of the forecast area.
These last few showers associated with the trough moving through should continue to trend downward and eastward over the next hour or two.
A weak frontal system and upper level low will bring clouds and a chance of showers Wednesday.
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A trough of low pressure continues over the North County while weak high pressure builds toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. What an improvement from yesterday wouldn't you say? Afternoon forecast remains on track from previous forecast thinking as a moisture starved elongated upper trough continues to approach the region from the north providing nothing more than some scattered diurnal cumulus across central and southern areas. For this evening and tonight, more widespread mid-clouds to our north under the trough continue to slowly sag southward towards the border and the trend through the evening and first half of the overnight hours will for these clouds to drift into our northern zones, but across southern areas this evening we should see skies rapidly clear with the loss of daytime heating.
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Low pressure will provide rain showers today into tonight.
155 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Conditions expected to generally improve over the next few hours, but will deteriorate again tonight into the MVFR/IFR categories as a cold front drifts through the region. In addition to the lowered cigs/vsbys, shwrs and possibly an isold tstm or two may accompany the cold front.
250 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The trof that has dominated the Upper Great Lakes region for the last several days is in the process of lifting out, setting the stage for a quiet short term period, and this quiet weather will continue thru the rest of the week. Although the 850mb thermal trof over the area is moderating, sct cu will probably still develop late this morning/early aftn well inland from Lake Superior. Favored the lower side of guidance with traditional interior cold spots likely falling into the upper 20s again.
319 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will provide the Northland will another clear and calm night, with temperatures dipping down to the lower to middle 30s for much of the forecast area. Leaned on gfs and nam mos guidance for overnight lows considering the low dew point temperatures this afternoon and the mos guidance being much colder than the rest of the guidance. The high pressure will shift south and east Wednesday, bringing southerly light southerly flow to the Northland. The fairly sunny weather and southerly flow will help temperatures reach the upper 60s and low 70s, but flow from Lake Superior will keep the North Shore cooler in the lower 60s.
This has allowed temperatures to warm slightly into the lower 60s especially in northern and western parts of the area. If cloud cover remains thicker then will end up a few degrees cooler. On Wednesday night a mid level trough will move over the Great Lakes region, while another trough begins to eject over the southern plains. At the surface a high pressure ridge axis will extend across the area from the Great Lakes region. During the day that high pressure will gradually retreat eastward allowing return flow to develop. In the afternoon the trough approaches from the southwest therefore increasing the mid level lift. An increase in moisture will support an area of showers associated with the trough as it tracks over the area through the overnight.
the short term concern until mid morning will be areas of frost with temperatures in the low to mid 30s common near and west of highway 83. Highs today remain near previous fcst from the lower 60s west to near 65 east. High pressure centered east of the cwa will provide for increasing southerly low level flow.
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slightly cooler post frontal air mass will spread across Minnesota and Wisconsin today. The upper trough axis is currently passing through eastern central MN and west central WI, which is producing a few pockets of mid clouds. Even with the cooler air mass in place today, temperatures should warm into the lower 60s given the expected cloud trend, possibly even making it into the mid 60s.
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A weak cold front will finish moving through the Twin Tiers southward this afternoon to evening, allowing scattered showers to exit the region. High pressure behind this front will bring mainly dry weather for the next few days, along with temperatures trending a bit warmer.
1147 AM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Updated to remove winter wx advisory for the lower elevations of teller county region. An upper level low center will be moving southward today from NV into srn CA and swrn AZ. The upper low then moves ewrd tonight over srn AZ. Snow amount forecast ovr some of the mtn areas is a bit difficult, especially with convection possibly bringing heavier amounts to some areas this afternoon and evening However, it looks like several inches wl be possible and so wl leave the current winter wx highlights in effect, and add a winter weather advisory for the higher elevations of the Sangre De Cristo mtns. High temps today wl be quite cool with readings only in the upper 40s to mid 50s at the lower elevations.
though not as high as earlier expected as drier air drops south into the state behind the cold front. This cold front will move south through the state through late this evening.
The GFS shows activity shifting south and east through the rest of this afternoon as the very weak upper trough that initialized the convection shifts east.
223 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slow moving cold front sagging south out of the Great Lakes will keep the mention of rain the forecast into Wednesday.
As we reach the convective temperature /in the lower 60s/ late Wednesday morning and early afternoon. surface dew points will likely drop into the lower and mid-30s /about 5F lower than the MOS values/.
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure was centered near the central border of MN/WI. High pressure was centered over northern Minnesota this morning and is forecast to move slightly southeast towards Wisconsin. For today, high pressure will remain over the region suppressing convection and maintaining dry weather. High pressure over the region maintaining a clear sky and light winds. High pressure will move southeast into the Western Great Lakes Region today, with increasing south/southeasterly return flow over the Northern Plains. Return flow continues tonight with a few clouds moving through as an embedded s/wv trough moves east across Canada.
/issued 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ Cloudy and cooler will be the rule today behind the outflow infused cold front about to exit our southern zones early this morning.
As high pressure dominates the area overnight, light winds and clear skies will be ideal for the formation of frost to develop. Winds will likely veer to the south/southeast as high pressure moves off to the southeast. The overall pattern continues to look the same, with the current high pressure area forecast to linger across the western Great Lakes for the next several days.
An upper ridge of high pressure has settled into Montana today providing abundant sunshine. This high will erode away tonight and Wednesday as the flow turns zonal. This wave may combine with some moisture spinning up from northwest Wyoming to produce an isolated shower over the higher terrain this evening. Zonal flow Wednesday will lead to warmer temperatures with high rising into the mid 70s with 850mb temperatures reaching around 20c.
/issued 1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ 15z analysis places a warm front roughly from the TN/MS border into central Arkansas. Temps will be tricky this afternoon and dependent the movement on the warm front. These showers are mainly occurring along and north of a warm front that stretches from Hot Springs, Arkansas to Tupelo, Mississippi. the front will begin drifting back south as a cold front. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Mid-South tonight will sink southward and stall out near the Gulf Coast.
For now, forecasted lows in the upper 30s to near 40 for these areas sunrise Wed, with most other locales in the lower 40s. Much more typical May weather is expected to return to SW KS this weekend, with much warmer temperatures and an increasing threat of severe thunderstorms.
Another day of full sunshine across Norcal with high pressure building in overhead. Temperatures on Wednesday will inch up a few degrees with ridge overhead and clear skies. Attention then shifts to abrupt pattern change as upper level low approaches NorCal from the Pac NW.
102 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Low pressure will continue to slowly pull away to the northeast today as high pressure builds in from the west.
415 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A broad area of high pressure will dominate through the remainder of the week.
High temps Wed will be in the lower to mid 80s with some upper 70s across N GA.
One last night of upper ridging will continue clear skies and cool temperatures tonight. Wednesday will be a transition day as an upper trough digs into the pacific northwest. Forecast models are showing a dry start with the initial push of moisture and instability associated with the upper trough.
609 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Rain chances will accompany crossing low pressure tonight and Wednesday morning. Though with a broad northeast CONUS upper trough in place, clouds should be slow to decrease.
High pressure will produce generally dry conditions tonight into Wednesday morning.
151 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front will slowly drop south through the course of the day today.
Moisture will continue to move over the area through midweek as a low pressure system featuring a distinct pair of low centers circulates over the west. For today, the low circulation over east-central Utah will shift to the northwest as the Nevada circulation drops southeastward toward Las Vegas. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the pressure gradient in the lower levels flow will remain relatively weak with light winds the result with the exception of outflow from thunderstorms.
Morning lows in the mid 40s and northerly flow will keep afternoon highs cooler than normal in the mid and upper 60s. Carney A progressive split flow regime will be in place early in the period featuring a positively tilted trof centered through the eastern Great Lakes into the upper Midwest, and a upper low/trof centered near the four corners region.
A warm front is located from Paris to Jonesboro and skies have cleared out to the south of this feature. The warm front will start heading south as a cold front soon and track across the Mid-South overnight with much cooler temps and northerly winds.
Cold front starts sagging back southward on Wednesday and with weak diffluence spreading overhead.
642 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Cool high pressure will gradually build in from the west through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures struggled to warm out of the low 50s as a late season Canadian airmass once again spread across southern Missouri. However, dense fog is expected to develop tonight as moisture remains trapped within the lower trop.
Forecast thermal progs should support highs generally in the lower to mid 60s inland, with a few upper 60s readings possible in the far west, namely Sauk and Iowa counties. Persistent onshore winds look to limit lakeside areas to the lower to mid 50s. The extended will be dominated by high pressure which will also lead to a warming trend.
1113 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure will bring warm, dry weather to the region today. Wednesday breezy conditions develop for the afternoon and evening, as a vigorous cold front moves through Washington and north Idaho.
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The warm front has progressed its way northward today, which has moved the precip out of the area as well. Skies have cleared a bit, and additional sun along with southerly flow at the low levels has warmed up most of the mid state into the 70s. As the upper trough over the Great Lakes moves eastward tonight and tomorrow, the warm front north of the region will stall and allow cold air to advance the boundary back southward.
Sunny skies under high pressure through the day with highs in the mid to upper 60s. 1028 mb high pressure centered over northern Minnesota will gradually drift south.
Upper- level ridging is positioned across Northwest California, with very little cloud cover noted on visible satellite imagery. This ridge will maintain it's strength/positioning for the most part over the next 24 hours. As we head towards the end of the work week and into the weekend, an unusually strong trough will drop slowly south across the region.
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A weak cold front will finish moving through the Twin Tiers southward this afternoon to evening, allow scattered showers to exit the region. High pressure behind this front will bring dry weather for the next few days, along with temperatures trending a bit warmer.
104 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Moisture over running warm front south of resulting in areas of light rain through tonight.
245 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The Inland Northwest will experience one more day of warmer than average temperatures on Wednesday before a vigorous cold front arrives Wednesday evening.
215 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 20z surface analysis had high pressure from the upper Midwest into eastern CO. Water vapour had upper ridge across the northern Plains into central Canada and upper low spinning across the southwest US. Tonight through Wednesday night, upper low over the southwest US moves east and weakens as another upper low drops into southwest Canada creating westerly flow aloft over the CWA. Modest low level jet develops tonight across northeast WY into far western SD, but predicted minimum temperatures suggests boundary layer will remain largely decoupled save for the higher elevations of the Black Hills / Foothills. Upper low settles over the Pacific NW and stalls out late in the week with ridging over the plains.
the cold front that blasted through early this morning has stalled along or just south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
218 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Aviation A cold front will press south of the state today which will allow high pressure to build in from the north. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today with highs in the lower 60s.
With better mixing than today we should be above to rise into the lower 70s in all but the far eastern counties.
High pressure will become centered across the state tonight. So highs should range from the mid to upper 60s for most locations except cooler for the Lakeshore counties.
403 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Southerly flow continues to pump in moisture thanks to the low pressure that is to our west. By Wednesday morning, the low will have shifted to southern Arizona but moisture will continue to stream into the area.
A gradient in high temperatures is expected today, with temperatures expected to reach the low 80s in west-central and northwest Central Alabama where there will be more sunshine, and only the upper 70s in southeast Central Alabama where there will be more cloudcover and precipitation. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 While cool weather lingers, the pattern will be a bit warmer and drier for the next few days. Upper low at 12z was centered in the UT/NV border area, with upper-level trough axis extending from QB/ONT through the UP of MI and into MN. Quality 850mb moisture was well south in TX, with a pocket of cool 850mb temperatures aligned with the upper-level trough axis across the Great Lakes and into the upper Midwest.
Skies were cloudy across the plains and mostly cloudy across the higher trrn. mtns were still cold with temps about freezing at the highest elevations. an broad upper low was spinning across the Las Vegas region. Upper low will drop slowly southeast and be located over central AZ by sunrise tomorrow. this will keep scattered to numerous showers and isold tsra going across the higher terrain. Given the mstr over the region and the track of the upper low. Upper low will move slowly east and should be located over s NM by tomorrow afternoon. Although it will be warmer than today by about 10F across the plains. it will still be quite cool as upslope flow with lots of clouds should prevail across the lower elevations throughout the day tomorrow. especially across the highest elevations of the sw mtns.
Easterly flow will continue to help moisten the lower levels, and expect some stratus development as well.
116 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A warm front lifts slowly north bringing areas of light rain through tonight.
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A REX blocking pattern will begin to weaken for the upper ridge axis to shift southeast tonight into Wednesday. Models have been warmer than actual observations with low temperatures nudged toward cooler MAV and EC guidance. Wednesday the upper ridge weakens with the short term model more progressive that will keep the area dry. for now left pops out as high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft, however, isolated showers may develop in parts of the southwest as lapse rates steepen during the day.
A strong upper level ridge will continue to build eastward into our region today.
The upper level low in the Rockies moves into the plains today and tonight. Ahead of the low there is a weak wave that moves through the area today. At the surface, the low across the area this morning will move to the northeast along the cold front and another low in the central Rockies will follow into the area later tonight. Today the temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday. As the upper low moves into the area during the evening hours, cooler air will start to push into the area and the precipitation should start to mix with snow during the evening in the northwest and spread to the southeast during the overnight hours.