Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PRAIRIES OF CANADA WITH A STRONG WAVE MOVING UNDERNEATH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION BEING AIDED BY THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 TO 45KTS. WAVE OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A 700MB CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE 700MB TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A 90 FOR KVTN.
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG IN THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA LEAVING THE REST OF THE WEEK MOSTLY DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE TODAY PROVIDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLUSTERS HAVE MAINLY REMAINED TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, THEY WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. TONIGHT WE'LL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO.
158 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
526 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL BE THE SAME /IF NOT A DEGREE WARMER/ THAN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PROG TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER /ASIDE FROM BRIEF STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE/ WITH MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER IN THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME MIXING OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MOIST LOWER LAYERS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WITH FEW-SCT VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER WEST TX AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL START TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NAM RH GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE MOISTURE VALUES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS VERY LIMITED AND THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CLD COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SEE NO REASON FOR THE DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW TO COOL OFF ANY.
UPR TROF POSNS WL REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS. WITH RIDGING ACRS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. UPR ANTICYCLONE ANCHORING THE RIDGE WL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LNGWV TROF POSN TO THE E. IT/S REASONABLE TO THINK THE SHRTWV WL TEND TO START TO DIG AS IT APPROACHES THE LNGWV TROF POSN. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERS WILL SPLIT ONCE AGAIN.
401 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH. SOME UPPER IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPEAR WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TODAY. THINK UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH MIGRATION OF MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
630 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE OF CUMULUS (6 KFT) THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
THESE WAVES HAVE BROUGHT STORMS WRN SD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TO THE CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE WAVE.
419 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
1236 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 VRF conditions at all terminals with southerly winds around 5-10 kts as a high pressure system has control over the area.
336 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
159 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SAT-MON TIMEFRAME. STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE M40S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE PLEASANT LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
213 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SO RAN A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM THE HIGHER POPS IN SRN OHIO UP TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE EXTREME NRN REACHES OF THE FA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND UNDER NW FLOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH.
A fast-moving low pressure system moving across southern Canada will whip up the winds across northwest Montana this afternoon through this evening. Wind gusts will approach 50 mph over northwest Montana ridgetops, including Logan Pass in Glacier Park. High pressure developing later tonight will allow temperatures to cool to the upper 30s for some high valley locales. By this weekend, low pressure will become set up off the Pacific Northwest coast leading to a mild and occasionally moist southwest flow.
354 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRIES THE NEXT MONSOONAL BURST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A GOOD FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER UT/NV. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS THERE ARE A COUPLE WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLE COOLER.
357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER SURFACE WARMING WITH HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR MAYBE TWO WARMER FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH IS NUDGED EAST AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
438 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON TUE WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN U. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED. SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND REMAINS INTO WED.
150 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 /ISSUED 909 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015/ MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS N GA OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS THERE IN THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY.
337 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 80 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF NE PA.
NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DUE TO THE STEERING FLOW BEING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT PORTRAYING A UPPER RIDGE CENTER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. WITH TROUGHS ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
108 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SAT-MON TIMEFRAME. STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE M40S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE PLEASANT LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
352 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE IL/MO BORDER. WITH A FRONT WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS AWAY LATER TONIGHT. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURES A SET UP WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE AXIS MEANDERING JUST WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST REACHING THE BAY AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR AUGUST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN ESELY FLOW OVER SRN WI. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL TRACK TO NRN MN BY 12Z FRI. SO ANY LIGHT FORCING WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA COULD CAUSE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN FAR NORTHERN WI.
OVERNIGHT THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS COMING FROM A VERY MOST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE LOW 80S. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WANT TO BUILD THE RIDGE BACK IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY.
402 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN ANALYSIS OF THE 850MB 00Z CHART DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING. THE 500 MB CHART ALSO DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS WELL AS AN AREA OF HEIGHTFALLS AROUND A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH LOWS GOING INTO THE 60S.
141 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY AND HEADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
TODAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WEATHER-WISE AS WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ALOFT WITH THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND RIDGE RIDING WAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH.
121 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LESS COVERAGE OF SH/TS AFTER TODAY AS A STACKED RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE HEAT BACK WITH IT. BUT THIS TIME DP TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS ALWAYS A TRADE OFF AS HIGHER DP TEMPS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR EXTREME HEATING BUT COOLER DP TEMPS WILL.
With weak upper level troughing across the region, a few showers and thunderstorms have already developed across the western and northwestern portions of the area. The local CAM ensemble seems to have a reasonable handle on this current activity, and it focuses most of the thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the northern portions and western portions of the forecast area closer to the upper level trough.
649 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON TUE WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN U. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED. SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND REMAINS INTO WED.
AFTER A CLOUDY START TODAY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SUNNIER WARMER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.
1232 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 909 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. SWLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18 KTS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 07/01-03Z.
THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAKES A MOVE EAST TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE ACTION WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE HOWEVER. THE RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH BUILDS TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
PROVIDING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES.
A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH RAIN AND NO ACCUMULATION BELOW 3500 FEET/ ACROSS SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER SHOWERS WITH FROZEN PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL THE TROUGH EXITS TONIGHT. THE NEXT WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD SNOW /CHANGING TO RAIN/ ACROSS SE OREGON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SW IDAHO LATE SATURDAY.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CURRENTLY, PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY, WE WILL GET INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE WITH THE UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT TAMPA WITH PWATS ONLY AT 0. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORT GENERAL TREND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW ALONG THE COAST, WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL DISPITE THE CLOUD COVER FROM A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE CAP. LATE SATURDAY WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHING OUT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS.
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AND DYNAMICS MARGINAL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HELPING PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOWS 60S SOUTH TO UPPER 80S NORTH DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSITIONS NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CWA GETS INTO A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW-END CHANCE RANGE.
/ISSUED 353 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GA COAST BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO MOVE IN WITH IT. ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
WITH THE BRO CWFA ALSO ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY STIRRING AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY TO HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GOM AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH FURTHER WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. LOWS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRI NIGHT.
JET STREAK WINDS ROUNDING BASE OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO CLOSE OFF OVER WEST/CENTRAL TX. WILL SLOW DOWN SYSTEM AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
451 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTED AN INTENSE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST CO WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S. THE 00Z NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY /HIGHS 30S-40S/ AND 10-15 DEGREES COLDER SATURDAY /HIGHS MID 20S-MID 30S/.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC AND SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
1043 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
842 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. WITH A RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
904 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
414 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 In the very near term, low level moisture has begun to creep north overnight evidenced by dew points in the low-mid 50s across much of southeast OK and parts of northwest AR. South winds will be increasing today ahead of strong trough along the Pacific coast this morning. Much of the high-res guidance suggests a drop in dew points across parts of northeast OK this afternoon resulting in a high fire danger. Lapse rates are not overly impressive during the day or even Saturday night with the approaching upper trough.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ AND NM ON SATURDAY.
924 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015/ In the very near term, low level moisture has begun to creep north overnight evidenced by dew points in the low-mid 50s across much of southeast OK and parts of northwest AR. South winds will be increasing today ahead of strong trough along the Pacific coast this morning. Much of the high-res guidance suggests a drop in dew points across parts of northeast OK this afternoon resulting in a high fire danger. Lapse rates are not overly impressive during the day or even Saturday night with the approaching upper trough.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC AND SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MOIST SWLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
545 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER TODAY AS IOWA WITH BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BY LATE IN THE DAY A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE COOLER.
634 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
953 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL DIG SEWD AND TOWARD W TX ON SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE MAP AT 08Z SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND VFR CIGS.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE TAKEN AN EAST NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE WRN U. SFC OBS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 BUT NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE SREF MODELS INDICATE FOG GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LACK OF RADIATIVE COOLING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY.
619 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/issued 329 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Near record temperatures will continue across West Central Texas ahead of an upper level trough that will arrive on Saturday.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER FROM A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE CAP. LATE SATURDAY WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHING OUT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS.
High pressure centered just east of the area will keep conditions dry today.
952 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 25 KNOTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER TROUGH. DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENING A TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS IT WILL PICK UP A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION ON SATURDAY.