Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH NORTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL DEPART THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S. BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S. DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS.
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN US. AS OF 4 AM TEMPS HAVE RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND 30 F FOR THE PLAINS. AND IN THE TEEMS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. SOMEWHAT STAGNANT UPPER WX PATTERN IN PLACE AS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS. WHICH SHOULD RELAX WINDS A BIT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE AND EASTERN U. TROFFING. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD GRADUALLY WHICH WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST.
953 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east. The strong upper tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb gradient continuing.
Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains. Model soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES.
554 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016 AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. THIS WILL INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT AND WILL BE HELPED BY MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S SE GA AND MIDDLE 60S NE FL.
08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION. CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U. WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
Winds WSW around 10 mph ahead of the cold front. Long wave trof digging in over the Midwest, with good representation on sat imagery this morning. The deep trof over the eastern half of the country will be the driving force through the end of the forecast period. Variations and challenges in the forecast revolve around subtle but significant nuances between models in handling the trof. Around a widespread inch or so could be possible through Tuesday morning, with the higher inch to two totals in the NE.
/ISSUED 346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT'S MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST INCHES EASTWARD.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO PUSH INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT TONIGHT. THEN TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
/issued 338 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Post-frontal temperatures today will see afternoon highs 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. As winds begin to die around sunrise, good radiational cooling conditions will see temperatures drop to the lower 30s across the Big Country and upper 20s over the remainder of the forecast area.
Early this morning a mid-level ridge was in place across the western U. With the mid-level ridge advancing eastward toward the central U. Northerly upper flow will start the day across eastern Kansas on Wednesday while a ridge builds to the west from the southern Rockies to the Northern Plains through the day.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH RIDGE OVER CA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY THE PINE RIDGE AND THE FAITH AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD DIP INTO THE TEENS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FORM RKS TO CPR WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST THUS INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND.
252 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WEAK LL THERMAL RIDGING AHD OF THIS FTR ALG W/AT LEAST PARTIAL MORNING INSOLATION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER START FOR MOST AND SHLD YIELD TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST ABOVE THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW RESULTING IN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA IS PROGD TO CONTINUE MVG E THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AND S TX. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT. HOWEVER A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG N-NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
451 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 A DRY NORTH FLOW SETTLED OVER THE REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SETTLED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST.
236 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BROUGHT COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/I- 25 CORRIDOR.
328 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 RATHER UNEVENTFUL NEXT 48 HOURS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING BY MORNING EXCEPT WEST RIVER WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.
1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND VERY WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING (AND THAT IS DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL).
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
303 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 AFTER SOME CLOUDS AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMINESS ACROSS THE REGION LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH EVENING BUT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IF THE HIGH AT DFW REMAINS AT OR BELOW 61.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INITIALLY AN H500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN CONTROL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE ROUGHLY 5 F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND N IOWA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE ABQ SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES WERE JUST A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF TYPICAL PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE. THOSE WINDS ARE PROMOTING A MUCH WARMER MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH MOST AREAS 5-15F WARMER.
Forecast lows will primarily be in the low to mid 40s. Johnson (Tomorrow Night through Tuesday) Mostly clear, dry and warmer through the coming weekend. Upper ridging will build over the forecast area through the coming weekend and will hold any chance of rainfall at bay.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
251 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE H500 TROUGH CONTINUES TO CHURN EASTWARD ACROSS SERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX.
250 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEAK UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 19Z IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID CLOUDS.
417 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER A CLEAR AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP OUT OF KY.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY.
323 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MS/EASTERN LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF MAINLY VIRGA AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NW MS. MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW AND THE FORCING WITH IT TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INT THE LOWER 40S TO 50 DEGREES. COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AFFECTING THE LA/AR REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVHD. /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/ THE LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUR CLOSED LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX. DRY SLOTTING ALOFT HAS SPREAD ENE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER DEEP E TX/MUCH OF NCNTRL LA. THE WRAP-AROUND -SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM W TO E AS THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E ACROSS SRN AR/N LA.
433 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THINK THAT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WE WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE EAST WHILE MIXING IN THE WEST WILL KEEP US CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES. SOUTH WINDS AND A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TOMORROW. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER.
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH ISOLD SHRA'S SHIFTING SE AS WELL. INCREASING NORTH WIND THIS MORNING IN RESPONE TO A COLD FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN TX. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
EXPECT THIS RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LOW /LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX AS OF 3 PM CDT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS DOWNRIGHT NICE.
350 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
310 PM MST TUE APR 28 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
200 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
404 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER A CLEAR AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP OUT OF KY.
317 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NEARING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
241 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 ZCZC CHIWRKSRD 280802 TTAA00 KCHI DDHHMM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN OUT THERE TONIGHT.
226 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 LOOKING AT A DRY AND PLEASANT FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AND SRN STREAM SPLIT FLOW UPPER LOW STAYS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH/EAST.
644 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
207 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 A DRY NORTH FLOW SETTLED OVER THE REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SETTLED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST.
146 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. A CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A BACK DOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INLAND AND A FEW PLACES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS GOT MEASURABLE RAINFALL, ALBEIT LIGHT.
340 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
308 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A QUIET PERIOD AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 70S IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.
1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NW FLORIDA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT OF TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE REGION WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST TONIGHT INTO WED. THE MAV AND MET SHORT TERM TEMPS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DIURNAL EFFECTS.
LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PLUS A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.
248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
/ISSUED 638 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ MUCH QUIETER FLYING WX FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/ THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE PANHANDLES IS STEADILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHER WEST A DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SE US AND INTO CENTRAL TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TOMORROW TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD BUT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FEEDING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER THE PENINSULA AND WILL PUSH NE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DEEP SW TO W FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE PENINSULA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE BEFORE THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO REGION FROM THE WEST AT THE TAILEND OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SOME HI RES GUIDANCE MATCHED UP WELL WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND INTO THE 70S WITH DRY WEATHER. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP.
241 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AS A FLATTENING H500 RIDGE CROSSES. SQUEEZE PLAY SETUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST.
1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015 Upper low slowly wobbling east and will have decreasing cloud cover over SE NM and W TX through the evening. /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/ An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure behind the front brought below normal temperatures.
SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday Night) The main features over the next 24 hours are the upper low currently centered in northeast TX and the upper low/short wave trof in the upper MS Valley. Upstream of these is a high amplitude ridge across western NOAM and this will shift eastward resulting in continued southward digging of the northern system with a postion through northern MO at 12z Wed and in the western TN Valley by 00z Thurs. Meanwhile the southern upper low will gradually weaken as it gets shunted across the lower MS Valley and into northern Dixie. No cooling is apparent with the boundary with temperatures warmer on Wedneday than today.
Skies cleared out for the most part today and highs have risen into the low 70s for most areas. Northern high pressure continues to move southward into Eastern Kansas on Wednesday, but anticipate some later day insolation and with mid level temperatures near the same expecting another spring like day with highs in the low 70s.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
338 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. AND AS A RESULT IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
BEYOND THAT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA TODAY THROUGH WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENT FLOW OCCURS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL MT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.