Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low over the Great Basin this morning with trof extending northward across Montana. Upper trof easing eastward today will push the showers into North Dakota with some clearing possible across the west. Showers could return to southeast Montana on Monday with upper low moving across the central Rockies. By Monday evening, the slow-moving low pressure trough will have consolidated into a small, upper-level closed low center directly over eastern Montana.
341 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. A few afternoon CU will be possible, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region.
Surface ridging into the Tennessee valley will produce light winds through the period.
657 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Strong high pressure will remain over the region early this week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. The axis of the upper ridge will move into the area today with 500mb heights gt 590dm and 850mb temperatures around +20 degC. A relatively deep layer of dry air within this upper ridge will combine with large scale suppression to keep skies mostly sunny today and allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. With a very warm summerlike high pressure still sitting lazily on top of the area, we can expect yet another night with valley fog Monday night with lows of mainly lower-mid 60s.
Then Much Cooler The region is in between an upper level ridge to the east and a deep trough to the west. High pressure is still in control of our weather pattern today. Upper levels height levels may just be a tad lower than previous days which means high temperatures may just be a degree or two cooler than yesterday. The deep trough over the western U.
Deep and strong western conus trof will continue to move only slowly east through the period. As a decent s/w lifts northeast out of the upper trof tnt, a developing LLJ will likely push that surface boundary back north, and in the process deliver additional moisture above the boundary layer back north into the CWA.
348 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A closed upper low will move from central UTah to the northeast today and reach southwest Wyoming by about 03z tonight. This area will be close to the low center and receive persistent though decreasing precipitation until about 12z Monday. Snowlevels in the wake of trough passage will remain near 9000 feet. The large block that has been in place keeping this trough anchored over the Inter- Mountain West will let up and allow the pattern to become a more progressive in the higher latitudes. It is there where the ensemble relative measure of predictability strongly supports an amplified ridge setting up across the northern 2/3 of NOAM by late in the week. This is because an area of low pressure well be left behind by the departing trough early in the week.
High pressure has become established over the area and thus full sunshine and no precipitation is expected as well.
Unseasonable warmth for late September will continue through the middle of the week as the Ohio Valley remains under the influence of strong ridging at the surface and aloft.
00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure across Western PA and Hurricane Maria east of the Florida Peninsula. Low temperatures in the lower 70s are anticipated. An upper level low along the Gulf coast Sunday will eventually weaken and slide eastward on Monday. At the surface, high pressure remains centered north of the CWA with easterly winds at the lower levels. The better chances though are across the western half, closer to the upper low.
/issued 832 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017/ High pressure is ridging down the state with Maria moving north well to the east of the state. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and lows generally in the lower to mid 70s.
Only change to the current forecast is to lower rain chances today due to the dry air surrounding hurricane Maria, and deep layer high pressure. Winds will remain weak while the Keys area is stuck in the COL region between the storm and the high pressure to our north and south. In Keys Weather History, on September 24th 1963, the low temperature at the Key West International Airport dropped to 72 degrees.
Closed upper level low over Nevada will slowly move eastward to NE Utah by noon Sunday. Because of the slow progression of this closed low, a band of showers picking up moisture from the Gulf of California will slowly trek eastward across western Colorado through tonight. with the closed low in Utah producing rain and snow showers over NE Utah by Sunday morning. General troughiness continues over the region on Monday, keeping temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Showers continue to stream north across the Dakotas as multiple embedded waves lift out of the closed low over the Desert Southwest.
Based on progged 925 temps for tomorrow, felt highs should solidly climb into the lower 90s with some spots potentially making another run at mid 90s again Sunday. Most other inland locations were reporting temps in the lower 90's. While the upper pattern will remain similar across the CONUS through Sunday, the core of the upper level ridge will shift a bit to the east, with slightly lower thickness values across the forecast area.
Jaszka An upper level low pressure system will slowly move through the central Rocky Mountains through Sunday, leaving southwest and central Montana in a cooler and drier part of the system. Widespread frost will also develop overnight as temperatures drop to below freezing in many areas. A slow moving upper low will weaken as it moves from the Great Basin tonight into northwest Wyoming on Monday. Tonight temperatures will drop to below freezing in many areas so expect widespread frost to develop.
With increased rain chances and cloud cover we will continue with highs running a few degrees cooler, but humid in the south. We should see more of diurnal range in the north where we have lower pops, but with lower dew points, the apparent temperatures should not feel much warmer.
Weak upper level ridging will develop over the high plains today with little in the way of low level convergence. A weak upper level trough will approach the high plains on Friday.
Low levels do moisten up this afternoon, with high level clouds thinning trough the day. Best rain chances will again favor the eastern zones and have kept 40-60 percent from the highway 301 area to coastal Georgia and First Coast of Northeast Florida. Ridge of high pressure south of the area will maintain southwest flow at night near 10-15 kt and onshore flow near 10 kt in the aftn due to the sea breeze.
1059 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will provide quiet weather today and through most of Friday.
1010 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure crosses today through Friday.
Brownsville radar currently shows some very limited shower activity across the lower Texas Gulf waters.
These storms were initially fueled by the low level jet and maintained through outflow boundaries and moisture convergence. The low level jet is expected to significantly weaken after sunrise and storms should begin to dissipate at this time as well. A surface boundary will lift north as warm front through the morning and early afternoon. The atmosphere may once again destabilize with clearing clouds through the morning and storms will be possible in the afternoon south of the warm front. Working against this potential, however, is the upper level ridging working its way into the central plains. As ridging continues to build in expect dry conditions through the evening and overnight hours tonight. More warm temperatures are expected today with continued southerly flow with highs reaching into the low and mid 80s.
as low as the lower 40s in the lower Kentucky River Valley. Weak surface cold front is slowly moving in from the northwest and has pushed past the KY/IN border over the past couple of hours, with high pressure sliding in behind it. Should see the weak cold front continue to push south through the rest of the morning and surface winds switch to the northwest. Mainly quiet short term period with dome of high pressure in control behind the cold front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 63 87 65 / 20 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 84 61 / 20 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 84 60 85 60 / 20 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 56 82 55 / 20 0 10 10.
VCTS was included at the other sites except KBVO which has the lowest chance today.
Atlantic high pressures reaches across FL to the Gulf of Mexico today with light east and southeast low level flow that shifts to onshore in an afternoon sea breeze.
911 AM MST Thu Jun 1 2017 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend across the lower deserts, with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of far eastern Arizona. Slightly cooler temperatures still look on track today, with high temperatures expected to remain near or just below 100 degrees at most lower desert locations.
937 AM PDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure building into Southern California will bring sunnier skies and warmer weather through the weekend. The trough will move out of our region to the southeast and allow a ridge of high pressure to timidly build today and Friday. The higher pressure aloft and a touch of offshore flow will shallow the marine layer tonight such that low clouds might not even make it into the Inland Empire.
500 mb ridge building over the area today. Only damper could be some high clouds moving east into the upper ridge. Main upper level low will move northeast into central Saskatchewan Thu-Fri while a sfc front/trough moves east into central ND/western Manitoba Friday aftn. Model progged dew pts in the upper 60s/around 70 too high but will see I do think dew pts in the lower or maybe mid 60s ahd of front in a narrow zone just ahd of boundary.
1012 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Broad cyclonic flow will continue through the weekend as an upper level low pressure system dominates our weather. Showers return to start the work week as another low pressure system moves in from the west. Cold air advection will bring cooler air with 850mb temps dropping to -1C to +2C supporting highs in the low to mid 60s. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours a vort max will swing through the base of the upper level low and should provide enough energy and moisture to see some isolated to scattered showers mainly along the international border. Temps will remain on the below normal side throughout as overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 40s tonight and only warm to the upper 50s to low 60s on Friday.
Another warm and dry day is expected across central Indiana under the influence of high pressure.
High pressure has brought quieter and cool conditions to the area overnight. High pressure will then take hold tonight with skies clearing off. Fog will burn off Friday morning with a pleasant day anticipated as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature over the region.
Cold front on track to push through this afternoon. with cooler and breezy conditions expected behind today's cold front.
748 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide pleasant weather today and tomorrow with sunshine, highs in the 70s, and low humidity. Low pressure and a warm front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Attention in later periods turns to the warm front approaching from the west. This feature has some difficulty advancing into the area as shearing northwest flow aloft persists on the periphery of the Quebec upper low.
Through 12Z Friday, a surface warm front will lift northward into central IA.
Latest water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough extending over the West Coast into Baja California and a ridge downstream, over the Southern Rockies into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. Both the upper level trough and ridge will shift eastward this evening to the northern Intermountain West-southwest US and eastern Great Plains, respectively. The pattern will promote predominantly dry conditions and mostly sunny skies as the aforementioned ridge moves overhead today. Warmer conditions will prevail today (forecast highs in the 80s) compared to yesterday, by about 8-12 degrees, that will result in highs above seasonal normal values. An upper level ridge remains in place through early Friday afternoon keeping conditions quiet. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Friday as a cold front gets dragged across the northern Plains.
This should act to sustain the low level jet a bit longer (to interact with cold pools from these clusters). Lows over most areas should be in the lower 60s.
This convection is in association with a trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, and a weak cold front draped across central Kentucky.
736 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will provide quiet weather today and through most of Friday.
The upper level trough will move across our forecast area today and is expected to push into Idaho by this evening. Highs will be about 3 to 5 degrees warmer on Friday.
A warm front was over central MO, with a light southeast flow into AR. The lowest will be over central AR, only keeping a slight chance there.
A broad upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will move northwards leading to a more zonal flow pattern for Northwest California.
1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Bermuda ridge axis bisecting the peninsula from the Treasure Coast to the Big Bend generating a light srly flow thru the H100-H70 lyr. Position of the Bermuda ridge will allow both east/west coast sea breezes to dvlp by midday. High pressure ridge bisecting the lcl Atlc will generate a light to gentle S/SW breeze thru midday, bcmg SE near the coast by early aftn as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland.
Northeast Montana is still looking at hot temperatures today with record or near-record highs across much of the area as the ridge begins to depart. The large upper-level ridge of high pressure will easily draw the hot continental air mass up from the south today as the ridge axis moves over the eastern half of Montana. Flow aloft turns SW this afternoon with the approach of a cold front from the west. The best model consensus directs these storms northeast as they ride the cold front through our CWA late tonight through Friday morning.
1015 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Low-level high pressure and resulting diffluent flow will keep shower/thunderstorm activity limited across the area today. The main axis of convection in the region will continue to lie to our southwest-south along an area of enhanced convergence at the S-SW flank of the low-lvl ridge. For tonight have a slight chance of showers in for our western areas, otherwise dry with lows in the low/mid 60s.
915 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A cold front will move to our south and east today and tonight. Another cold front is expected on Friday.
Current activity is being driven by a weakness in the upper ridge overhead. Models are now wanting to bring an amplified ridge across the Rockies into mid week. The ECMWF solution would have more influence ridge wise over the FA as the main upper flow around the high stays to our north and east. The GFS places us under northwesterly flow which would help keep things cooler as well as aid more in precip chances.
/issued 412 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery shows a large dome of upper level high pressure positioned south of Bermuda, slightly further east than 24 hours ago. Along the coastal regions, maximum temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, slightly warmer than the norm.
There was still plenty of moisture in the low level with dewpoint temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. The upper trough will remain over the southwest and the flow over TX will be from the southwest. The low level flow will be from the east to southeast keeping moist air in place.
Dry air aloft under the upper ridge will likely preclude much convection east of the Laramie Range.
Mostly clear skies with slightly cooler air today, then hot and dry conditions redevelop for the weekend and remain through the foreseeable future. Trough across the region will drop temps a couple degrees from yesterday as breezy, southerly winds commence this afternoon gusting around 20-25 mph, primarily across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. An isolated shower could skim northeast Mohave County this afternoon with higher rain chances remaining to the northeast and east of the area ahead of the aforementioned trough.
740 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Broad cyclonic flow will continue through the weekend as an upper level low pressure system dominates our weather. Showers return to start the work week as another low pressure system moves in from the west. Cold air advection will bring cooler air with 850mb temps dropping to -1C to +2C supporting highs in the low to mid 60s. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours a vort max will swing through the base of the upper level low and should provide enough energy and moisture to see some isolated to scattered showers mainly along the international border. Temps will remain on the below normal side throughout as overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 40s tonight and only warm to the upper 50s to low 60s on Friday.
In the middle to upper levels (700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with streamline analysis as of 900 am depicts a cyclonic middle and upper flow pattern across the Northern half of the CONUS, with the next disturbance/trough developing over the Intermountain West. Flow across the Southern CONUS is on balance anticyclonic, with the greatest ridging associated with the northern half of a deep warm core ridge poking northwards to across South Florida and the Florida Keys from Central America. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 900 am details 1020 mb surface ridging remaining in place from the West Central Atlantic to across North Florida.
Temps across the southeast were running a little cooler than forecast, but they should quickly rebound.
944 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build across the region today and tonight.
1052 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will provide another mostly sunny and warm day across central Illinois today. 12z KILX upper air sounding suggests mixing will take place up to about 800mb, yielding afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s. Upper low continues to spin over northeast Ontario early this morning, with associated fast-moving waves around it passing through the Great Lakes region. Evening model suite continues to favor MCS development over Iowa tonight, but extension further southeast along the incoming upper ridge is not as clear cut. Expansion of the convective complex is expected later Friday night along the warm front lifting northward, although Wisconsin and northeast Illinois are more in line for this.
Area of precipitation moving through southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho this morning is associated with an upper trough crossing the intermountain NW. The showers will continue to expand through the morning and especially this afternoon as an upper trough in Oregon moves into SW Idaho this afternoon. The trough will move to our east tonight with showers and thunderstorms ending by midnight. A weak upper ridge will develop across the region on Friday for mostly clear skies, light winds, and a return to above-normal temperatures.
650 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Weak diffuse boundary just to the northeast of KSLN continues to slowly lift back to the NE as a warm front. Prefer to go a little on the warmer side for max temps than guidance suggests.
Overall a cloudy and cooler day is in store as rain and storm chances will increase areawide throughout the morning through the afternoon. In addition, had to lower temperatures into the lower 80s due to widespread clouds/increasing rain chances.
Expect showers to increase this afternoon when daytime heating and trough passage increase instability.
High pressure will prevail over the western Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley.
Carrying the higher (40-50) PoPs for showers and thunderstorms across our northern counties today, where the better lift and moisture will be. With not as much cloud cover farther south, temperatures will be warmer than yesterday and expect highs to be in the lower to mid 80s. For tonight, a weak closed low aloft will develop over southern Arizona with a trough extending south across northern Mexico. Similar to the first system over the last few days, this upper trough will settle across West Central Texas, with scattered convection along and southeast of the trough axis through much of the weekend.
Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend across the lower deserts, with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of far eastern Arizona. Even the low level flow responded to this dynamic system with a 30 knot 700 mb southerly wind at Yuma.
This area of moisture convergence will move east this morning at the same time that the low level jet weakens which will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across central and southeast Missouri today along the front. Went closer to the warmer MOS guidance for highs today. Britt The warm front will be moving northeast through the area Friday morning, and there may be some lingering isolated convection as this happens. The ECMWF and the NAM build an upper level ridge over the area by Friday afternoon. The GFS is slower, and all of the models print out QPF in spite of the ridging. It's odd-model-out, and the other mass fields don't really support precip since we should be under broad-scale subsidence due to ridging through much of the depth of the atmosphere.
1055 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today. The high will remain across the region tonight into Friday.
918 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A cold front moves through today with thunderstorms. Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the weekend brings northwest flow with a chance of showers. Storms will be forming along a cold front moving through from northwest to southeast, moving through the North Woods midday and to Downeast late afternoon into early evening. Only modest CAPE, but pretty good upper level dynamics with a potent upper level low just off to the northwest. Areas of fog this morning expected to lift into a stratus deck, with the stratus deck breaking up as the cold front moves through. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight and cooler with isolated showers. Expect much less low clouds and fog than previous nights due to offshore flow and a cooler, drier airmass.
Light pressure gradient due to nearby high pressure will result in wind speeds remaining mostly less than 10 knots. High pressure will prevail over the western Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley.
An upper trough will maintain a chance of showers through Friday.
A short wave trough moving through today is proving to be a little stronger than previously forecast. This evening a small short wave ridge will rapidly move over the area, and quickly be replaced by southwest flow ahead of a very large and strong upper low dropping south out of the Gulf of Alaska.
Winds will diminish through the evening as the cold front exits the Panhandles.
High pressure begins to drift to the east this afternoon with winds decreasing and becoming NELY around 5 KTs at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF and SELY at KDRT tonight. After a Pacific front brought very dry air and breezy west/northwest winds yesterday, a secondary cold front with northerly winds has moved through the region. Dewpoints will be higher today and afternoon humidity values will be around 20 to 30 percent with the lowest values near the Rio Grande Plains. Otherwise, highs will be a bit cooler, in the 70s for much of the area.