Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thursday will be cooler with more breezy conditions. A pseudo warm front has developed along the Hi-Line this afternoon. This area will need to be monitored this afternoon and evening as a weak wave from an upper low in Canada clips the northern portions of the state. given inverted-v soundings and the high based nature of the storms. Thursday will see more gusty winds and cooler temperatures as a weak cold front drops south out of Canada.
Slightly cooler temperatures expected Thursday, with another day of low humidity.
647 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Weak convection today and associated cooling has kept the warm front from redeveloping north of the forecast area as originally expected. However, ridging will once again build into the area overnight and the delayed translation of the warm front into Wisconsin is likely to occur late tonight or Thursday morning as strong insolation should assist in mixing.
726 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight into Thursday with dry and seasonably pleasant weather expected.
KPVW has the highest potential of this occurring tonight and we've added a mention to the TAF to that terminal, with chances lower at KLBB and KCDS. /issued 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/ High pressure remains our dominant feature across the SWRN USA. Today, the center of the high is located across SERN AZ with largely zonal flow across the northern half of the country.
717 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High pressure will remain west of the area through Thursday.
946 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
Winds remain light to start the TAF period, but begin to increase Saturday afternoon turning from westerly to northerly behind the cold front.
High resolution models keep the front moving south through the area today and push it up against the higher terrain in southwest Texas this afternoon. In addition, northeasterly, upslope flow behind the front will also contribute to moistening the lower levels of the atmosphere over the Permian Basin and into Southeast New Mexico. Therefore, expect fog and patchy drizzle to form ahead of the cold front, but as temperatures over northern reaches of the area become cold enough, freezing fog and freezing drizzle will form. At this time it appears freezing fog will not be widespread enough, and freezing drizzle too patchy, for an advisory.
With the clipper the higher QPF is in the southwest mountains in the 0. Southeastern areas too will get in on the cold act with lows mainly in the lower teens. As the ridge build over the western United states an amplified trough will continue to deepen. this elongated trough will extend westward. The ensemble mean and deterministic models are in fair agreement on the position of a low over Hudson Ba and a deepening trough bring another weather system through the region mid to late week.
These two factors should contribute to slightly warmer temperatures tonight into Sunday morning and less of a low Wind Chill threat east areas. Shift in the low level winds is due to an area of low pressure that will be moving southward over the western Great Lakes later Saturday night and Sunday. Short term guidance continues to indicate a meso-scale circulation may spawn from this low over Lake Michigan and work its way south on Sunday.
Updated the forecast to include a mention of very light freezing drizzle or flurries this evening. With temperatures struggling to reach above freezing, a few spritz of freezing drizzle may also occur in this area. With roadways well below freezing, this could cause hazardous driving conditions wherever this occurs.
With temperatures above freezing currently, this precipitation should fall as very light drizzle, however as temperatures fall, this may become freezing drizzle or flurries. The depth of the moisture and only spotty indications for cloud ice lean the precipitation type towards drizzle/freezing drizzle but where cloud ice does show up, flurries would occur.
A cold front will then move in via the Texas Panhandle bringing gusty northerly/northeasterly winds to the terminals. Once winds taper by sunset, attention will turn to a strong cold front currently dropping across the High Plains of CO and KS. This pattern should support another round of morning stratus and some freezing fog behind the front over much of the area, but clouds are likely to loiter for most/all of the day as chilly surface ridging holds tight and prevents upslope winds from veering too much. By Saturday night, broad troughing in NW flow to our north will release a legitimate Arctic airmass towards the TX Panhandle, before reaching the South Plains near daybreak. Upshot is that our region is setting up for perhaps four days straight of freezing temperatures which last occurred in early January 2015.
VFR cigs will decrease to MVFR as a dry cold front approaches the area. Winds will turn to the northwest/north and increase to around 10 kts as the cold front passes.
A cold front will push through the area today, ushering in a reinforcing shot of very cold air for the Ohio Valley region. A minor short wave trough rotating through the region will help kick off some additional light snow Sunday, generally north of I-64. The longwave pattern through the extended highlights stubborn ridging over the western CONUS with a persistent trough over the east.
Ramona (86 degrees) and Palomar Mountain (68 degrees) tied their high temperature records today, and Lake Elsinore tied Northridge, CA and Woodland Hills, CA as the hottest in the nation at 89 degrees.
A dry cold front enters the forecast area today and exits tonight. At the onset of the period on New Year's Eve night, any lingering very light showers in central Georgia will be quickly exiting as much colder advects into the area behind a strong Arctic cold front. Highs will remain in the 30s for north Georgia for nearly the entirety of the coming week with some locations likely not rising above freezing for at least a couple of days. Central Georgia will not be much warmer, with highs remaining in the 40s through the week.
252 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 A cold front has recently cleared the forecast area to the southeast. Freezing drizzle has occasionally been reported along and just in the wake of the front. However, any remaining precipitation in the post frontal cloud cover should be trending toward flurries as the low-level moist layer cools sufficiently to contain ice nuclei. Otherwise, very cold conditions will return to the area as Arctic high pressure builds in behind the front.
winds were light and temperatures were finally above freezing area wide.
A stratus shield from the north across southern Kansas is moving south along the cold front. The first piece of cold air will arrive late tonight mainly due to pure density as the upper level flow is relatively flat and the main upper low is basically a clipper system that will move across the Great Lakes a good distance away. Strong CAA below the frontal inversion and upslope flow will combine to saturate the lowest few thousand feet and will also lead to patchy/areas of freezing fog once again and possibly patchy freezing drizzle.
As the low-level flow veers into the west, and then northwest later in the day, and cold advection commences in the lower levels of the atmosphere, a lake response should begin off Lake Ontario, in the form of multi-bands initially across the northern Finger Lakes region towards the Syracuse area, then extending down towards the southern tier of NY by evening.
Areas of light rain and drizzle will overspread the area from west to east beginning around sunrise as a weak trough of low pressure moves over the Texas coast and stalls over the area.
Cold front is expected to be through the area by sunrise this morning, with very cold air overspreading the area in its wake. There still appears to be a window, mainly this morning for some light freezing drizzle or even very light snow across much of the area. As we go through the night tonight, another surge of cold air moves south and with it we could see some light freezing drizzle or light snow redevelop across portions of western, central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas.
The snow associated with the passing cold front will wrap up this morning, as the bulk of the large scale ascension and deep moisture dives south and east. Additionally, with the colder air driving southeastward, and winds in an optimal direction, orographic enhanced snow showers will also become prevalent over the ridges.
1152 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017 We've got two main headlines for this forecast period: freezing drizzle possible today and VERY cold temperatures this weekend. The freezing drizzle chances are for this afternoon and tonight, for the northern half of MO and mainly east of I-35. While the entire sounding profile at several locations is below 0 degrees, freezing drizzle seems the most likely outcome due to the shallow moisture profile, which is outside of the dendritic zone, and enhanced lift from the approaching boundary.
Still looking at a wide range of snow totals through Sunday afternoon, from a dusting up to 9 inches with the highest amounts in the Gogebic Range of northern Iron County.
/issued 330 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017/ Another foggy night is possible ahead of a relatively dry cold front that will push across the area on Saturday leaving drier air in its wake to close out 2017.
Patchy drizzle and eventually, freezing drizzle will expand from northwest to southeast late this evening and into tomorrow, with a gradual diminishing trend tomorrow afternoon as drier low level air finally moves in behind the initial frontal surge. Freezing drizzle will eventually mix with and transition to light snow, with accumulations of a half inch or less. Winter Weather Advisories will be possible over the next 36 to 48 hours, but confidence is not high enough to do so yet, especially given the expected patchy nature of any freezing drizzle late tonight and tomorrow.
The higher-res NAM/HRRR want to bring in some low-lvl moisture overnight which could result in a narrow band of low stratus developing, but confidence at the moment is low on this materializing. Temperatures north and west of an I- 85 line will be about 3-5F degrees cooler than today, generally in the 40s.
A strong cold front will sweep across western Kansas late this afternoon into this evening with frigid arctic air pushing in behind the front. Highs tomorrow are only expected to range from the low teens across central Kansas to around 30 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
Per a developing near coastal low pressure area/warm front. Only tweak was to indicate some warming near the coast overnight as the warm front inches closer.
There may be a few patchy spots of freezing drizzle or flurries along and immediately behind the front however it looks like it will not be enough to cause any impacts and will end soon. Temps tonight will crash into the single digits for lows as a strong area of high pressure builds south into the plains.
The threat for snow showers will end later this afternoon as arctic high pressure begins to nose into southwest Ohio. Arctic high pressure will build over the upper midwest will usher bitterly cold air into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Sunday will struggle to highs from the lower teens north to near 20 south. An upper trough positioned across Eastern NOAM will dictate the regional weather through the period, bringing mainly dry weather and much below normal temperatures.
Adjusted storm total snowfall amounts to reflect CAM guidance consensus 3-6" of fluffy snow in the Laurels with max accum on the usual ridgetops west of RT219. As the ridge build over the western United states an amplified trough will continue to deepen. this elongated trough will extend westward. The ensemble mean and deterministic models are in fair agreement on the position of a low over Hudson Ba and a deepening trough bring another weather system through the region mid to late week.
1120 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017 A cold front was just north of GCK-RSL-MYZ line as of 21z.
A cold front will sweep from north to south through the area this afternoon, ushering in what will be a prolonged cold start to 2018.
Very cold Arctic high pressure centered over Saskatchewan and Manitoba this afternoon will sink across much of ND and far northeastern SD by mid morning, while extending a ridge over the rest of the forecast area.
Another short wave trough caught in the northwest flow aloft will come out of the northern Rockies late tonight and drop southeast toward the central Mississippi River Valley for Saturday night. The flow aloft will remain northwest with large scale ridging in place over the Rockies.
1257 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 A cold front moves through early Saturday. Warm advection / isentropic lift ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west, will bring snow across northern and central portions of the area tonight. As the associated cold front crosses Saturday, the snow will transition to mountain snow showers, with west winds increasing and becoming gusty, ushering in yet another arctic air mass, beginning Saturday afternoon. The real news story during this period is the reinforcing shot of cold air, with 850mb temps progged to dip into the lower -20s. This combined with continued gusty winds Saturday night, will produce wind chill criteria across the higher terrain Saturday night and again Sunday night.
Surface analysis shows arctic high pressure across Alberta sliding southeast toward the Dakotas.
High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest and then help to usher significantly colder air to the Ohio Valley. Long wave trough will persist through the period keeping temperatures well below normal.
Along with this feature, there will be a slight chance of light snow showers or flurries, and possibly even a little freezing drizzle mainly north of I-64 in IL through 10Z, followed by a slight chance of snow showers/flurries in the Evansville Tri-State region up to daybreak.
1034 PM MST Fri Dec 29 2017 High pressure remains to the west with a northwest flow overhead.
Currently, Arctic high pressure is situated over the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Actual air temperatures around 30 below zero and wind chills around 50 below along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. South of here, only slightly warmer temperatures are expected, with wind chills of 35 to 45 below zero. This will be responsible for increased clouds, and thus the slightly warmer temperatures (and wind chills) over the southwest and far south central tonight. clouds and snow may keep the southwest and far south central a little warmer, but even here, we will be dealing high temperatures well below zero and dangerous wind chills.
For now, temperatures remain above freezing in locations where dense fog exists. Will continue to monitor through the morning hours for the potential for patchy freezing fog. In general, impacts are low to none with freezing fog, but it's possible that elevated surfaces may become slick should this occur. The local area will reside under the base of the broad eastern CONUS trough, and under the influence of low-layer ridging. The low-level moisture that resulted in fog development across parts of the Big Bend and south Georgia will be pushed out of the region today as northwesterly flow becomes established. The current forecast calls for the low clouds and fog to have little impact on highs, and with seasonable 850mb temps and eventual sunshine, expect highs to climb to near normal levels.
An Arctic front continues to retreat northeast across north- central Montana early this morning as low pressure approaches the region from the northwest.
The area of light freezing drizzle and snow flurries that developed across the mid CWA around Noon should continue to push southeast and out of the area through early this evening. We have gotten reports that vehicles were becoming icy, and some bridges, but 511 road reports have mostly shown green conditions, except for some patchy ice in western Iowa. Very cold high pressure builds in tonight with lows dropping into the single digits above and below zero. As models have indicated over the last several days, extremely cold air moves in through the remainder of the weekend as arctic high pressure moves in. The high center settles directly overhead Sunday night as a 1052-1054 mb high.
Farther south, included flurries as mid-level support isn't as strong, but weak lift and some moisture still appear in the low levels. Kept at the low end or below guidance, resulting in subzero lows everywhere tonight and highs ranging from around -5F far northeast to 15F far southwest Saturday.
Warm/dry flow in the mid levels will help to a) provide warmer temperatures today, and b) bring some relief to the persistent cloud cover we've had for days now. By the afternoon, the weak trough in the Gulf of Mexico will move north and east and should drop rain chances. Cold front will be on our door step by day break and should move through most of the forecast area by noon.
158 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Canadian high pressure across the region will be reinforced behind a dry cold front tonight. An approaching dry reinforcing cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. Temperature recovery will occur ahead of the cold front today. The temperature guidance was close tonight with lows mainly in the lower 30s. Some increase in moisture may occur Sunday and Sunday night with a weak inverted trough lingering in the wake of the cold front.
The Florida Keys will enjoy a rainfall-free end of the year thanks to a high pressure to our north and the dissipation of a cold front over central Florida. By Sunday night, an area of low pressure and its associated cold front off the northeast Gulf coast will be pushed southeast and will make its way over the Florida peninsula.
Arctic high pressure continues to slide into North Dakota tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery highlights moisture from the Pacific moving into northern California and Oregon and getting pulled eastward with the flow ahead of an advancing trough with h5 low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast. At 09Z, the surface cold front had pushed as far south as Oklahoma and Arkansas. The 00Z OAX sounding was moist in the lower levels with pwat of 0.
The boundary in place across south FL will continue to slowly push south and dissipate through tomorrow as drier air moves into the state from the north under high pressure.
311 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 An upper level trough will cross the region through this evening.
Snow reports are starting to come in from the ridges that are straddling warning criteria. With this in mind combined with upslope snow showers with increasing lake fetch through the night, the advisories for most of the ridges have been upgraded to winter storm warnings.
Approaching cold front will increase northerly winds tomorrow afternoon. A cold front will sweep from north to south through the area this afternoon, ushering in what will be a prolonged cold start to 2018.
Longwave trough over eastern half of the U. Cool and modifying high pressure in the Deep South to move into the W Atlantic tonight as W Gulf storm system develops Sunday and Arctic high pressure dives through the Plains states.
205 PM MST Sat Dec 30 2017 Temperatures continue to be the biggest challenge with the forecast as some snow covered valleys remain underneath strong inversions, while upper level winds increase, either causing inversions in some valleys to strengthen resulting in colder temps or break resulting in warmer temps. This disturbance moves out by sunrise Sunday morning, with a 80 to 100 kt jet overhead helping to push this system quickly east and keep the higher peaks blowing through Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow remains on Sunday with high pressure building to our west, with cooler temps thanks to the passing disturbance and high clouds remaining. A dry yet dirty northwest flow will remain in place for the first half of the work week, thanks to high pressure to the west.
Freezing line currently from Durant Oklahoma to near Fort Smith Arkansas. Low-level moisture ascent from a trough in the Gulf of Mexico over shallow cold airmass will allow for continued chances for drizzle and light rain tonight. As temperatures fall below freezing north of I-20, precipitation to change over to a mixed bag of sleet and freezing rain. Through mid-morning, a slight chance for freezing rain and sleet can be expected across Monroe and Ruston and points north. Temperatures on Sunday night to fall into the teens across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas while the remainder of the ArkLaTex falls to the lower 20s.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and mild conditions through the holiday weekend though considerable high clouds will spread over the region at times.
1004 AM PST Sat Dec 30 2017 Precipitation chances will be on the decrease through the day as high pressure begins to move onto the west coast. Morning update sent to take down winter storm warning for the Cascades and flood advisory for Southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. Temperatures remain above freezing but dewpoints are drier and snowmelt will only contribute to slow runoff.
353 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Drier air will continue to filter into South Florida tonight as high pressure will build into the region. High pressure will remain in place for Sunday and New Years Eve night which will continue the dry weather over South Florida. Daytime high temperatures will range across the lower to mid 70s and these temperatures will drop through the upper 50s and 60s during the evening hours of New Years Eve.
Can't rule out some patchy freezing fog, patchy light freezing drizzle or snow flurries through the morning hours, especially for KAMA. The next cold front is expected to push through tonight, with winds switching back to the northeast at 10 to 20 knots. Models are hinting at a slightly better setup for patchy freezing drizzle along/behind front tonight which should switch to snow flurries towards the end of the period. Freezing Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones: Armstrong.
1135 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 A significant arctic outbreak has begun for most locations, with the strong arctic cold front pushing across OK at this time. Shallow moisture has led to alot of post frontal stratus developing with some locations even seeing some spotty freezing drizzle or flurries. Expect the arctic outbreak to continue for the rest of the weekend into the New Year, with some of the coldest air of the season settling across the area as a strong arctic high pressure (1054mb!!) area builds south across the region.
Am looking for highs ranging from 8F-10F across the far northeast and east to the low 30s in the Flagler area. Moisture in the 850-700mb layer moves down toward the interstate from the north this evening then hugs the higher terrain over far eastern Colorado.
Quiet weather across our region today with a ridge of high pressure overhead keeping any moisture well outside of our region. Temperatures have been running close to yesterday's values for the northern half, while the southern half has been running just a bit cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Sections that drop below freezing will mostly be confined to southern Monterey and San Benito counties.
Arctic high pressure will build over the upper midwest will usher bitterly cold air into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Sunday will struggle to highs from the lower teens north to near 20 south. An upper trough positioned across Eastern NOAM will dictate the regional weather through the period, bringing mainly dry weather and much below normal temperatures.