Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE DUE TO THE FACT THAT TODAY WE ARE ON WESTERN SIDE IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. /ISSUED 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ LATEST GUIDANCE AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 3F WARMING NEAR THE SURFACE AND WARMING ALOFT WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO WARMER TEMPS TODAY ARE ON TRACK.
LOOK FOR A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MONDAY. A WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM BLANCA INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
656 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS GENERALLY MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WARMER. THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO START BUILDING INTO NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH IS EVIDENT NEAR BEAVER PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LOW HAS ELONGATED INTO A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. THE ELONGATION OF THE LOW IS RESULTING IN A DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The upper ridge over Texas remains in place with little change in our weather through tonight. There will be some slight warming and drying of the airmass as the 850mb thermal ridge over West Texas edges more to the east. Highs today will be around 90 to the lower 90s with upper 60s to around 70 for lows tomorrow morning. For the next few days, ridge of high pressure will remain parked across Texas.
WITH 500MB TEMPS EVEN WARMER BASED ON THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM YESTERDAY.
THE CENTER OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF MEXICO. LIMITED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONFINE CONVECTION NEARSHORE AND OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.
IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CHANGES ARE TAKING PLACE AS ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE PAST FEW HOURS IS BREAKING DOWN WITH THE CENTER ALONG THE EAST COAST BECOMING DOMINANT. IT IS THE ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW THAT WILL TURN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SELY AND PUMP UP EXISTING LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. WE MOISTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INDUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10KFT AND THE INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT A FAIR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD NOT SEE STORMS TODAY. COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS OUT OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND ANY CONVECTION THAT RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK BUT A THERMAL RIDGE WILL SET UP AND SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PARTS OF THE AREA. /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS GETS BEATEN DOWN SOME TODAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD WITH THE WAVE TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT THE AIRPORT ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BISECT THE MIDSOUTH FROM EAST TO WEST TOMORROW EVENING AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S.
EXPECT CONTINUED HEATING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S. HOWEVER CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT THE AIRPORT ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BISECT THE MIDSOUTH FROM EAST TO WEST TOMORROW EVENING AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S.
THOUGH A WEAK/FAST MOVING TROF COULD SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TODAY.
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
1009 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A FEW STORMS TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INDUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE VALID 12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT ON MONDAY WHILE MOVING WEST.
/ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS SE TX WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 00Z SUN SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER 500MB RIDGE OVER SE TX. NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROGS GOING FORWARD FOR THE WORK WEEK HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP S OVER THE N GULF BY WED/THUR WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING BACK INTO MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY. THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST NIGHT'S BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LOWER/MID 90S INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.
A TROUGH WAS DIGGING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH. IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM WYOMING DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON THE NORTH EDGE OF A RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
1245 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA TODAY BRINGING NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. WITH RIDGE STEERING INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS AROUND MONTANA.
AREA AROUND KMEI HAS ALSO SEEN MUCH LESS RAINFALL LAST MONTH THAN MOST AREAS WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE QUIET AS MEAN DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON REDUCING PRECIP POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH A FEW PLACES BEING A BIT WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUDS. WE WILL SEE THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN SOME AS A DECENT S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND HELPS LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS.
622 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015 A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly move southeastward today. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening.
1032 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE U. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BUT WILL STILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO SHIFT WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BUT STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO THE EAST SO THINK THAT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ALONG WITH BROADSCALE SUBSIDENCE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
533 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH.
1057 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY.
A BIT STRONGER ON OHX SOUNDING CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 70 87 69 / 10 10 40 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 68 87 67 / 10 10 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 68 86 68 / 10 10 50 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 64 85 64 / 30 20 40 80.
/ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 250 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL DRYING FILTERING INTO N CSTL SECTIONS TODAY. THE UPPER LVL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SE THIS AFTERNOON TAKING WITH IT DEEP LAYER LIFT OFF TO THE SE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST.
/ISSUED 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ LATEST GUIDANCE AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
H5 RIDGE IS PROG TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
850-700MB THETA-E RIDGING DOES NOT REALLY ORGANIZE UNTIL THE AFT AND EVE HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYERS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S BEING REACHED AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. OUR AREA LIES BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED THROUGH THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DESPITE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN HALF OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD LINE GENESIS NEAR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MONDAY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM BLANCA INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND COOLING AS IT BUILDS THE MARINE LAYER. AND DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES.
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA WITH THE MAIN JET MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT VISIBLY NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT WITH IT AS THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BE SUPPRESSING IT AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS SHIFTED EAST MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
414 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER TROF OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.
/ISSUED 212 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW IN SOUTHERN INDIANA DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT WILL CRAWL EASTWARD TODAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO EASTERN TEXAS. UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT ON GFS/AND OVER TENNESSEE ON EURO. UPPER LOW CENTER WADDLES AROUND MISSISSIPPI. ACTUAL UPPER LOW POSITION MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BLEND OF BOTH GFS AND EURO. UPPER RIDGE KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD THIS WAY BUT EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE KEEPS GETTING CARVED OUT BY REPEATEDLY. FINALLY UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP AND RETREATS WITH UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING EASTERN U. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE.
IT APPEARS LIKE THERE IS A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE JUST NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE STRETCHING TO SOUTHERN CONVERSE COUNTY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S. UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY SOME OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
77 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE N AL/S MIDDLE TN DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER SUPPRESSING SB INSTABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW QUADRANT (GA/E TN) OF THE RETREATING RIDGE.
135 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EDGES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK COULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT W-NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WITH VFR OR PERIODIC MVFR SKY CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LVL TROF CROSSING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND IT. /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL REMAINS OUT TO THE WEST. UNTIL THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER NOTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS RATHER LARGE. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRAVEL ALONG THE RIDGE AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO CAUSE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO INCREASE. ONE NOTE ABOUT THE FORECAST IS THAT IF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. KRC RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 218 PM CDT UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITHIN THE FIRST FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BUT ANTICIPATE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTN WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS. MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
332 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES IN THE AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
Mid-afternoon surface analysis showed a compact area of low pressure centered near Columbus, Ohio with a cold front extending southwest through portions of eastern and south-central Kentucky. Soundings show increasing lift in the low/mid levels after 06z along with deeper saturation. South-central KY near the TN border could break out of the clouds late in the day to jump into the low/mid 70s, otherwise expecting an unseasonably cool day. Normal readings are in the low/mid 80s.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND. UPPER LOW NEAR 38N/127W CONTINUES TO TRACK NE TOWARD THE AREA. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL MOISTEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HELPED ALONG BY SOME DYNAMIC ENERGY AS WELL AS A VORTICITY MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
254 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 CURRENTLY - THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH A BROAD TROUGH TUCKED IN ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK. THE LOWER KEYS ISLAND CLOUD LINE GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS. AND ZONAL TO A TOUCH OF RIDGING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORECAST - THE BROAD TROUGHING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. AND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WILL SWING SOUTHWARDS INTO FLORIDA. WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT.
146 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. AS OF 9AM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF I-80 WITH MOST OF THE FCST AREA UNDER A WARM-HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HELP BOOST CAPES TO BETWEEN ABOUT 1000-1500J IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS.
421 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
317 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE OFF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND IF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING. EASTERN CWA WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY MONDAY.
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
615 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AND A WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CWA TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT COOLER. SOME MARGINAL CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE WARMER PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CWA MONDAY. FAST-MOVING LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND EJECT ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR N CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EWD THIS MORNING. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A LUFKIN TO MINDEN TO JUST W OF EL DORADO LINE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WOBBLE EWD TODAY. FORCING THE COLD FRONT E OF OUR REGION.
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROF OVER ARKANSAS. THIS TROF IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THERE IS NO UPSTREAM KICKER TO DISLODGE THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN UTAH. THIS HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH THAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOMORROW AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
327 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT.
322 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EDGES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.