Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALONG A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS COOLER BY A SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMPERATURE GAP FROM THE LOWLANDS THAN NORMAL. KEEPING PLACES LIKE SNOWSHOE 15-20 DEGREES OFF THE LOWLAND PACE AND BKW CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. WITH UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. CONTINUED TO HUG THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER WEEKEND.
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THEY WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT TO OUR WEST, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN/OHIO WHICH TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING.
This system was in advance of a much larger upper level trough that was amplifying across the western United States.
THIS MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH IS BRINGING IN A SLOW TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION. THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL GIVE EASTERN AREAS A BIT MORE OF A BREAK BEFORE SUNRISE.
1136 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW.
258 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
Very broad and weak troughing down the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast is embedded within an amplified ridge over the eastern half of the country. At the surface a similar weak trough, found mostly by a wind analysis, stretches through south-central AL/GA, up into the Mid-Atlantic.
WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND +20 CELSIUS.
WEAK BUT HOT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INCLUDING LATEST HRRR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVERGENCE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AS WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT STILL MAKES LOWER CLOUDS /BELOW 8H/ BUT IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE WINDS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WILL KEEP IT MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP MAXES SHORT OF GFS-MOS GUIDANCE. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. AND A SLOWLY FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INCLUDING LATEST HRRR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVERGENCE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AS WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT STILL MAKES LOWER CLOUDS /BELOW 8H/ BUT IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE WINDS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WILL KEEP IT MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP MAXES SHORT OF GFS-MOS GUIDANCE.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEP AND EXPAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. TROUGH WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED /PER LATEST MODEL BLEND/ WITH MOST AREAS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST U.
310 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A LARGE BROAD RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS TODAY ARE AGAIN JUST LIKE THE EARLIER PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND IN THE LOW 90S OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
THE 700 MB TROUGH BARRELING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW LOOKS TO PUSH ENERGY INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING.
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS.
CURRENT OBS SHOW THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND TEMPS ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN THE 80S AS OF 15Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER WEST COAST AS THE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US HAS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NE AL HAS THE HIGHEST POPS FOR TODAY AS THEY ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHERE A COMBINATION OF A DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE SOURCE OF CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY WARM THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEPART AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U. AN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL CONCENTRATE ITSELF OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW CENTER WILL THEN SWING INTO NORTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON, AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SIDE OF THIS LOW TODAY. SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN TONIGHT.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
338 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. NAM MODEL INDICATES AROUND 1200 J/KG COMPUTED CAPE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN EXTENDED MODELS AND WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN DOWN STREAM HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION. THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET ALONG THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW WEAK BUT HOT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE.
AND A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H500 RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST WEATHER SYSTEMS AT BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG AND HAZE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTHEAST MAY RESULT IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION SEEING THE HIGHEST RISK OF STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY, HAZY AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S WITH A RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100. SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY.
First, let's talk snow! We issued a Winter Weather Advisory above 6500ft for the higher terrain along the Continental Divide.
225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A WEAK 8H TROF AXIS, POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION, WAS LOCATED FROM WRN TN THROUGH NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA. THE LOW CHC FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THERE.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ERN OHIO WAS LOCATED RIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT ZONE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER THE NERN U. THE FCST AREA REMAINING IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS SPELLS SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO E TO SE. WITH UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. CONTINUED TO HUG THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER WEEKEND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO AN EARLIER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ALOFT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HAVE PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH A FOCUS ON THE INTERIOR.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALONG A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS COOLER BY A SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMPERATURE GAP FROM THE LOWLANDS THAN NORMAL. KEEPING PLACES LIKE SNOWSHOE 15-20 DEGREES OFF THE LOWLAND PACE AND BKW CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CONUS.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. WITH THAT IN MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.
NEAR TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH WHERE MORE MOISTURE EXISTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLOMBIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
306 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.
655 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 PREDOMINATELY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE CONTENT SLOWLY DECREASES WITHIN THE LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SWIRL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL DRAPED BACK SOUTH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT FROM THIS LOW.
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COVERAGE. AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL DRAPED BACK SOUTH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT FROM THIS LOW.
1123 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL WY AND TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION AS TWO WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. BEFORE THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EAST AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER SCENTRAL SD. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDS EXPECTED MOST OTHER PLACES. MAIN LOBE OF LSA AND DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE CONFINED WITH THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH.
HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE MADE UPWARD TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE SPANS CENTRAL U. HEAT CONTINUES TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO EASTERN IOWA.
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE N FL / GA COAST. AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THE TROUGH/FLOW.
116 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE DISTRICT.
Upper level ridging and high pressure remain in control of the region's weather and will continue through tonight.
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET UNDERCUT BY A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
305 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
317 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GA.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS DUE TO BETTER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
405 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WAITS OFFSHORE AROUND 130W. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN TERM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHORT WAVES TROUGH MOVING INLAND WILL HELP TO RING OUT LIGHT SHOWERS FOR AREAS OF THE CASCADES.
845 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY.
/ISSUED 410 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR SE PARISHES IN N CNTRL LA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A SHORT WAVE OVER NM WITH DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PIPELINE ACTIVE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EVEN AS RAIN GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY EWD WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
605 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST. A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. BRIEF RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER FAR N QUEBEC THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO N TX.
852 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ MAY STAY AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 15-16Z. THE 14Z ENDING TIME TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS PEELING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AND GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES.
644 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
806 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT THE COLD AIR FROM MOST OF THE VALLEYS. WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED BACK OVER INDIANA TO PASS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BUT WILL DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
1010 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS EVENING WILL THEN BE BREEZY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AREAS VERY LATE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST.
526 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with temperatures below freezing.
523 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 09z/3am surface analysis shows 1001mb low over northern Lower Michigan, with cold front extending southward through the Ohio River Valley. Due to extensive cloud cover and CAA, high temperatures will hover in the lower to middle 30s. High pressure will build eastward into the Midwest tonight, providing diminishing winds and cold conditions.
923 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING.
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR IS LURKING VERY CLOSE BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY BE NEAR FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE FRONT AND ITS RAIN OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
233 AM PST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY.
/ISSUED 314 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ H5 TROUGH EXTENDS THIS MORNING FROM HUDSON BAY TO ERN NE THENCE SWWD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH THE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. AS OUR MOST RECENT TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION WE WILL SEE THE START OF A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD.
952 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH.