Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moderately strong upper level trough will continue to drive northeast through the Southern Appalachian region this afternoon. This component is a relatively deep low pressure system that will shift east from the Southern Plains through the Lower Mississippi Valley from this evening through mid day Sunday.
Winds will back to the ESE during the evening hours before veering to the south again after the passage of the warm front.
There be a break in rainfall, before a much more substantial swath of low level moisture advects into the mid state region mainly after 22/06Z, with the possibility of moderate shwrs/tstms at all terminals by 29/09Z, as as influences of an upper level low to our west begins to influence the mid state's wx.
A weakening upper low off the Washington coast is producing some showers across the area. An upper trough, which extends from a low centered off the Washington coast, will weaken and lift to the north today. Scattered showers will continue across SE Oregon and SW Idaho through the day, with rain/snow showers in the lower valleys and snow showers in the higher elevations. A second and stronger low pressure system will approach the PacNW coast and stall offshore on Sunday. Greater amounts are expected in the Lower Treasure Valley.
Negative tilted trough over the area remains progressive this morning, and have noted that the mid level trough axis has crossed east of the Wasatch spine over the last few hours. Building heights in advance of a low amplitude ridge will squelch most all of the lingering mountain snow this evening allowing a brief reprieve from active weather through much of tomorrow morning. Will be addressing some form of headlines for the next trough that will track in rapidly late morning/midday Sunday later this shift. Jet buckles to our west Sunday and Sunday night shifting the ridge to our east.
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front draped across northern Ohio will move southeast of the area this evening. High pressure will build in behind the cold front on Saturday and remain in place through the weekend.
A weak cold front extended from northeast Ohio through southern Missouri and into eastern Colorado. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 70s. The front will stall out briefly over the region Saturday morning and then start to lift back north as a warm front by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be quite warm on Saturday with highs in the lower 90s. The warm front should be north of the region by Saturday evening so dry weather is expected.
With a cold front currently poised along the Ohio River Valley, cu and pop-up showers/thunderstorms have just started developing within the last hour along the frontal boundary, still farther north and much slower than originally expected. As this cold front slowly pushes southward throughout the evening and into the overnight, expect the best chances for showers and thunderstorms to follow. That being said, the cold front is expected to weaken as it traverses Kentucky. The cold front becomes stalled out just south of our state border during the day tomorrow. Meanwhile, with strong high pressure to our north and dry air advection taking place, kept our far northern counties dry throughout the day.
The highest heat values will be located across the coastal plains and range in the 106-110 range for an hour or two. For Saturday, the H5 ridge will weaken slightly and retreat northwest over New Mexico. With the weakening ridge and slightly higher PWATs, a slightly more active sea-breeze will occur and a few isolated showers could form along the coast.
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front approaches from the northwest today and moves across the region tonight.
The latest water vapor imagery depicts a closed upper low circulating near Colville Washington, and approaching the northern Idaho panhandle. A transitory ridge was located downstream into northeast Montana, with a compensatory northwest flow east of the ridge axis into western and central North Dakota. And although instability and shear decrease farther north, most unstable cape of around 2000 j/kg along with 45kt-50kt 0-6m shear will exist north of the warm frontal position. The combination of the MCS from Friday night extending into Saturday morning, along with low level easterly to southeasterly winds, cooler temperatures and cloud cover, may diminish surface based convection through the day Saturday.
335 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions will settle in for much of the upcoming weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
302 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016 A cold front will move into the area tonight and linger nearby through the weekend.
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Weakening cold front tonight into Saturday.
106 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Long wave pattern with a trof to our east is producing northwest flow aloft.
High pressure will begin to shift slowly east tonight and will be over Lake Michigan by 12z Saturday morning. The low level flow will be from the east and still originating from the high thus the dry low level air will remain. The low level jet will be focused over the Western Plains with the instability axis in that region. The area of high pressure will continue to move east on Saturday. Theta-e advection will begin to escalate by the afternoon and the low level jet will already be intensifying by mid to late afternoon.
Water vapor analysis reveals a closed upper level low drifting over northeast Washington state.
As mid level waa returns tonight along with increasing 85h winds and a short wave trough moving in, expect some showers and storms to develop out west this evening and spread east through tonight and Saturday.
Drier dew points filtering into the region should help overnight lows fall into the low to mid 60s.
Models show a weak upper level trough moving across the region on Saturday.
region remains in a weakness situated between a break in two deeply-reflected ridges. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s with highs on saturday in the 88-94 degree range (lower along the immediate coast).
Upper level low S of Cuba will travel westward this weekend across the area but 700 MB mid level moisture will be very limited. High temperatures will near seasonal normal through the weekend ranging from the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
A weak cold front remains stretched over south central and into east central portions of Kansas into Missouri. But the bigger mechanism for overnight storm potential seems to be associated with an area of isentropic lift developing as the next upper low works into the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains by early morning helping to develop a warm boundary stretching into the Central Plains region. Temps have been suppressed a few degrees from the previous forecast this afternoon across northern counties as the cooler outflow has worked through the area earlier with a few showers and increased cloud cover. This feature will drive a cold front south into southeast Nebraska and extend southwest into southwest Kansas.
Greater coverage is expected to be over far northern WI where temps aloft are cooler.
132 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 132 PM CDT A band of low topped scattered showers will continue southeast and weaken along a cold front this afternoon. North to northeast winds (more northeast closer to the lakeshore) will spread through the rest of the area this afternoon as the cold front continues through. High pressure will move overhead tonight which will quickly diminish winds, and we will see some passing high clouds out ahead of convection in the plains. The high will shift over Lake Michigan Saturday resulting in south- southeast winds and dry conditions. KMD 309 AM CDT Zonal flow will be in place to start the period, but a strengthening upper ridge over the mid section of the country will result in the return of heat by the end of the week.
326 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will drop south across NY and stall near the NY-PA border overnight.
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Weakening cold front tonight into Saturday.
Much of this activity will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating but weak upper level troughing will remain over our area through Saturday and a late night storm or two will be hard to rule out. Daytime heating will combine with our moist airmass and weak troughing aloft to lead to the development of isolated to scattered storms again. Afternoon highs will be close to normal in the lower 90s leading to decent surface based CAPE but overall wet microburst parameters look less favorable than today. Ridging aloft will begin to build back over the region from the west Saturday night.
The low the generated this instability and brought in the moisture will lift deeper into Canada and continue its eastward track. This will leave Sun dry and nearly clear, except for some possible subtropical moisture that could move in from the south and affect the highlands bordering Utah, but the GFS does not introduce this moisture at all. The continuance of the trough on Sat will mean some gusty wind and cooler temperatures compared to Fri. The heat of summer is being reached as 500mb heights and MOS temperatures suggest highs in the 90s for much of the lower elevations. Slightly cooler temperatures for tomorrow will be noted resulting from this boundary passage as well.
High pressure will build and remain across Central Indiana for the weekend.
Tonight: The low clouds will have dissipated by early evening as subsidence arrives behind a departing short wave. Weak high pressure will be over the area allowing for very light to calm winds. Saturday: We will start the weekend with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and a bit warmer as southerly winds return, as the high pressure slips off to the east.
Cooler temperatures are expected by Saturday as an upper level trough develops off the West Coast. Temperatures have been running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in many inland locations around our region today due to more clouds this morning, a more compressed ridge of high pressure, more moist air, a deeper marine layer plus cooling through the column (indicated by the Oakland sounding this morning).
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. There will also be weak upper troughing over the area. followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature forecast. Upper level trough over the eastern CONUS with several weak short waves rotating northeast through the region.
Of greater concern is convection that is already well underway from southeast Colorado into the higher terrain of New Mexico. Temperatures tonight should be a little warmer than this morning, mostly from the mid-60s to lower 70s, though a strong cool pool from overnight convection could have something to say about that. One difference from the previous heat wave that spanned much of the first 14 days of the month is mid level temperatures are forecast to be some 4-5C cooler as we dwell on the underside of the ridge.
Persistent low-level stratus has kept things stable over much of the high plains into the early afternoon hours, which could limit storm coverage more than we earlier expected. Saturday will be similar, except would believe afternoon/evening convection will be more widespread as mid- level dynamics will be more favorable, along with convergence in the low-levels and a 100-knot H25 jet over central Wyoming.
The high resolution models are varying on exact placement of the current convection, but all have it moving southeastward during the next few hours, eventually weakening the convection as it moves into the Red River Valley by early evening. Low pressure over South Dakota will keep convection active across the southern portion of the CWA, however the strongest storms should remain south of the forecast area.
620 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front draped across northern Ohio will move southeast of the area this evening. High pressure will build in behind the cold front on Saturday and remain in place through the weekend.
158 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A weak cold front will drift slowly southeast toward the Ohio River today. High pressure will build into the region on Saturday.
232 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Weak high pressure to our north across the Florida Peninsula is controlling our winds throughout the Keys area this afternoon.
with periods of a more east than southeast flow and slightly decreasing thickness, will expect a degree or two cooler tomorrow than todays highs.
Ridge over the desert southwest will be building towards the southern plains however a weak trough axis looks like it will remain over the area.
Current temperatures continue to warm through the lower 80s and will warm into the middle 80s in the next few hours. Instability should be plentiful this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Saturday should be mostly dry as high pressure builds in to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs today ahead of the boundary will be in the 85 to 90 degree range, and tomorrow behind the boundary in the lower and middle 80s.
The base of the upper-trough is set to move through the region on Saturday.
A trough moving through the western states on Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions to northwestern Coconino County.
High pressure over the eastern Great Basin will gradually shift east through the weekend bringing an increasingly strong southwest flow aloft to the area. Short wave ridge over the eastern Great Basin this morning will shift east into the central plains tonight as an upper level low moves through the northern intermountain region. Some instability develops over the higher terrain this afternoon and although moisture is modest. isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the high Uintas. Tonight the tail of the weak cold front associated with the upper low in the northern intermountain region moves into northern Utah.
Deep layer ridge axis across north central Florida will move northward to near the FL/GA border on Saturday. However, a little more subsidence aloft is forecast with the ridge overhead. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
522 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will slide offshore by evening accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The low pressure system that is currently over northeast Washington will continue to move south toward northwest Montana tonight.
255 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016 A slow moving cold front over southeast Ontario and Quebec will slowly sag into the North Country this afternoon through Saturday accompanied by a few showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
These storms will continue through the afternoon hours but expect storms to interact with cooler conditions over the east lose some instability and strength. For Saturday the upper level ridge over the Great Basin will elongate and bring zonal flow over the region tomorrow morning then turn more southwesterly during the afternoon and evening. In addition warming temperatures will help to mix down mid level winds up to 40 mph over the higher elevations creating for increased fire danger. Colorado will be trending to a more Southwest flow aloft through the rest of the Weekend with even warmer temperatures for Eastern Colorado and the mountains.
An upper ridge will translate east of the region this evening as an upper trough and closed low digs into western Montana. As the upper low pushes further east over the forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening establishing upper level diffluent zonal flow.
Afternoon temps running upwards of 11 degrees cooler near the Delta while elsewhere across Interior NorCal generally only a couple degrees lower. Combined with height and thickness drops, highs tomorrow expected in the 90s for the Central Valley with 80s for the Delta and portions of the foothills, 60s and 70s for the higher terrain.
355 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Isolated high-based thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain and some northern valleys this afternoon with gusty outflow winds the main concern. The gradient will tighten across much of the area on Saturday as an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest moves inland and drags a 90kt jet streak across northern Utah, southern Idaho and Wyoming. Some isolated high- based storms are still possible over the higher terrain near the divide of western Colorado with gusty outflow winds the primary concern.
West to southwest flow aloft increases across the area through the day tomorrow, as upper trough translates across the Great Basin. With current dry conditions and expected breezy winds of 15 to 35 mph, strongest over the higher terrain, and low afternoon humidities, have issued a Red Flag Warning for Fire Weather Zones 220-225, which includes most of south central Colorado.
The other is that fairly strong subsidence between 850 mb and 700 mb could keep much convection from forming, and this look reasonable based on the fairly well defined trough axis that extends further southwest form South Carolina into southern Alabama and into Louisiana. KTW For 18Z TAFs: MVFR ceilings at KHSV should not last longer than 19Z/15, as the low clouds over the site are breaking up.
Dry weather is expected across the lowlands between weather systems, but showers will be possible in the Cascades.
Surface ridging has shifted over southern Louisiana and, with mid to upper ridging planted across the southern plains states, subsidence will aid in suppressing widespread convective activity.
204 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016 A slow moving cold front over southeast Ontario and Quebec will slowly sag into the North Country this afternoon through Saturday accompanied by a few showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
445 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. There will also be weak upper troughing over the area. Low temperatures forecast near guidance, in the lower to middle 70s. Upper level trough over the eastern CONUS with several weak short waves rotating northeast through the region.
Overnight and into Saturday, a mid-level inverted trough moves into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Even with somewhat better moisture values on Saturday, the local area will be on the subsident side of the approaching mid-level inverted trough, so precip chances on Saturday will be minimal. By late Saturday night, the trough is nearly overhead, with GFS painting some light coastal QPF (not so much on the NAM), so isolated PoP's were extended over the coastal areas and offshore waters.
North to northeast winds (more northeast closer to the lakeshore) will spread through the rest of the cwa this afternoon as the cold front continues through. High pressure will move overhead tonight which will quickly diminish winds, and we will see some passing high clouds out ahead of convection in the plains. The high will shift over Lake Michigan Saturday resulting in south- southeast winds and dry conditions. KMD 309 AM CDT Zonal flow will be in place to start the period, but a strengthening upper ridge over the mid section of the country will result in the return of heat by the end of the week.
324 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front will slide offshore by evening accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
1140 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Pleasant, slightly cool conditions this morning as high pressure ridge will lingers over much of the state.
139 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Surface map at 18Z shows a weak ridge of high pressure running across East Tennessee, with a cold front stretched along the Ohio Valley. Despite dew points in the low to mid 70's most areas, convection is having difficulty forming so far, but we'll stick with scattered POP's for the rest of afternoon as temperatures slowly rise through the 80's. The surface front should come through Middle Tennessee tonight and tomorrow morning, with some leftover convection tomorrow, mainly south, and the rest of the weekend looking drier as high pressure takes over briefly.
The GFS and EC are in good agreement with taking the closed low centered near the tip of the Idaho panhandle slowly off to the east. General troughiness remains over the rest of the Pacific Northwest. On Saturday night a short wave drops down the back side of the trough and towards southern Oregon.
145 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will bring slow cooling and a slightly deeper marine layer through the weekend with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending into the western valleys. high pressure aloft over the central and and southern plains will strengthen and expand westward.
128 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Aviation Cloudy and cooler weather with a few light rain showers can be expected today as a Canadian cold front drops south through the state. High pressure will bring clearing skies tonight and a sunny and pleasant Saturday.
352 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A weak cold front will drift slowly southeast of the Ohio River tonight.
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I- 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. COOLER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SEEN ITS FINAL DAYS. THE DESCENDING AIR EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS READILY APPARENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WINDS RANGE FROM 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW TROUGH AXES WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PASSING LOW/MID CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS SE GA OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST AS HIGH TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST. TONIGHT WARMER LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COAST WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED TO DUE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH. AND THEN RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT.
A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE THAT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A DRY/COOL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW PRODUCING COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT. THEN A WESTERLY WIND COUPLED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY. BDL LONG RANGE MODELS BUILD A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS.