Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps will remain below normal with highs from near 80 to the lower 80s and lows will fall back into the mid 50s to near 60 each night. The upper-level flow pattern across the country will continue to feature a dominant ridge in the west, with troughing of varying intensity in the east.
Expect storms to continue to develop and push eastward away from the higher terrain from late afternoon into the evening, though coverage will remain generally isolated as upper forcing remains weak. On Thu, upper trough moves across the state while a weak cold front drops south through the plains. Outside of Thursday evening(which is expected to be active due to a healthy passing upper disturbance), a relatively tranquil meteorological pattern is anticipated during the balance of the longer term as varying degrees of upper ridging impacts the forecast district.
Deterministic runs predict a weak E-W upper ridge axis over the region Tonight/Thursday.
Otherwise, building high pressure will provide mainly dry and cool weather through the weekend. A broad trof will reside over the Northeastern U. Models indicate weak waves will rotate around the upper trof at times this evening and tomorrow. 850 MB thermal trof over the region will mean unseasonably cool temperatures in the lower-mid 50s with the upper 60s and lower 70s for highs.
233 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Cooler and drier under high pressure into the weekend. High pressure remains in place through tonight with a cool, dry airmass in place. Hi-res guidance shows the base of an upper trough pivoting over the northern portion of the area Thursday, so kept lower end PoPs in the northern tier of counties during the afternoon. Models in good agreement with high pressure in control, with warm sunny days and cool foggy nights/mornings.
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front are mostly expected to affect ECP, TLH, and VLD this afternoon. A cold front is draped across the northern border of our forecast area. Don't expect cooler conditions behind the front though- highs will still be in the low to mid 90s this afternoon- even behind the frontal boundary.
337 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Recent water vapor imagery shows upper ridge still in in place over the Rockies with a weak wave making northeast progress through it in northern Arizona. The upper wave shifts southeast into Oklahoma tonight while weak convergence along a developing lee trough may generate some thunderstorms over northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska, but still expect dry air to keep anything more than an isolated shower or two from reaching here.
Today Through Friday Night Fairly quiet weather for the short term forecast as the CWA sits in somewhat dry northwest flow on the southern periphery of longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS with upstream ridging.
128 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area tonight into Thursday. High pressure will build into the region for the end of the week. bringing a cooler and drier airmass. Overnight low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Thursday morning, the cold front will be over the eastern Midlands with dry air pushing from the west.
212 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An upper level ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with the next wave to affect the region pushing into western WY. At the surface, a trough continues to stretch across eastern MT/WY. Winds are generally southeasterly around 10 kts, and temperatures are in the lower 60s. The upper ridge axis will shift over the central states today as the Canadian trough moves through the Pacific Northwest.
An area of high atmospheric moisture has been producing rain in eastern Oregon and Washington ahead of the cold front. As the morning and early afternoon showers depart to the east additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the unstable conditions near the cold front. Even without thunderstorms, winds will become breezy this afternoon due to the trough clipping the region and the approaching cold front. The cold front does not appear to move through the entire region today and has a stalled appearance for tonight. Another trough passage on Friday should help the cold front on its way to the east, while providing additional thunderstorm chances to southwest Montana, and increased winds throughout north-central Idaho and western Montana.
121 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will be felt across the region through the weekend. West to northwesterly flow in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere will keep the cool and dry air reinforced through the weekend.
High pressure regains control over the weekend, with dry and hot weather expected.
156 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Cooler and drier under high pressure into the weekend. High pressure remains in place through tonight with a cool, dry airmass in place. Hi-res guidance shows the base of an upper trough pivoting over the northern portion of the area Thursday, so kept lower end PoPs in the northern tier of counties during the afternoon. Models in good agreement with high pressure in control, with warm sunny days and cool foggy nights/mornings.
458 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An cold front over the region will move south of the area this evening. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend. bringing a dry and cooler airmass. A broad upper level trough crossing the eastern states will bring a west to northwest upper level flow to the region today. A slow moving cold front over the Midlands this morning will move south of the area this evening.
303 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Potential for early morning low clouds/patchy fog in portions of western and central ND, and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late tonight are the highlights in the near/short term periods. Otherwise for the rest of the short term period, a mid/upper level transitory ridge will slide into western and central ND, resulting in plenty of sunshine, dry and warm weather.
Backdoor cold front will sweep south across southern WI through the early morning. Overnight temperatures will dip into the 40s to lower 50s with slightly warmer temps by Lake Michigan.
The only surface boundary in the area will be an ill- defined lee trough in northeast Colorado. Upper ridge rebuilds over the central plains on Friday and having a hard time finding any forcing for convection.
High pressure aloft will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin over the next several days.
there should be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms by afternoon as a weak trough of low pressure across northern Nebraska should provide a focusing area for afternoon storm development. Weak high pressure across the southwestern US will continue to shift west through the upcoming weekend allowing multiple disturbances to transition across the local area in west northwesterly flow aloft. this ridge should begin to strengthen as it slowly shifts east.
Temperatures across central Louisiana and the lakes region of southeast Texas are in the lower 70s while temperatures along the coast are in the middle 70s with a light north wind.
142 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Primarily fair weather will continue through the weekend as high pressure dominates the region. dry Canadian airmass will continue to build into the region as lows tonight will drop down into the lower 50s while added cloud cover will limit highs to upper 60s to around 70 in NW CWA and lower 70s elsewhere on Thursday.
The biggest uncertainty surrounds exactly how low temperatures are expected to drop to coincide with this low-level moisture in central KS. ECMWF, SREF, Canadian, and NAM indicate that areas of patchy freezing drizzle are possible with temps dropping to the freezing mark or slightly below, while the HRRR and GFS are less agressive with the push of cold air advection into the northwest corner of the CWA. Therefore, not ruling out a few areas of isolated patchy freezing drizzle in Central Kansas tonight and into early Sunday, but ice accumulations and travel impacts should be minimal. The focus of the forecast will then shift to the impressive upper level trough currently situated over the southwestern U.
Surface ridging will keep winds generally light, 6kts or less.
Dewpoints are holding into the low to mid 40s around DRT, so a rapid return to low level saturation to develop by mid evening.
It still does not look like much of the area will see precip outside of the higher terrain.
The warm front that moved through the area has pushed well north of the Ozarks as noted by the breezy southerly winds, rather warm temperatures in the 50s and increased moisture. Additionally, winds may gust at times between 25 and 35 mph this afternoon before tapering off just slightly this evening as a cold front and the storm system approach the region. Drier air will try and work its way into the area along with the cooler airmass.
With light winds below 10 knots in warm advection over still cool-ish ground, as temperatures have dipped into the lower to mid 60s at 10 PM. Expect winds to remain just light enough at the Lower Valley airports through early morning to combine with near 40 knots at 2 thousand feet to make the argument for LLWS, so have added a WS parameter for Harlingen/Valley and Brownsville/South Padre from 09Z until 14/15Z at which time mechanical mixing will take over.
Precip chances pick up later this afternoon as a strong upper level trough of low pressure moves east across the Central and Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains early in the period. Short range models indicate the upper level low deepning as it pushes eastward across the high plains of western Kansas. Considering the projected track of this system, the highest impact of snow and blowing snow will be felt across west central into central Kansas near and along the I-70 corridor. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) tonight as colder air spreads southward into western Kansas behind a cold front advancing across the region.
Low temps will range tonight from the low 50s in the west where the thickest cloud cover will reside to the low 40s in the east where skies will be mostly clear. /10/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Sunday: Mid level ridging in the wake of the departing cold core system along the Gulf Coast will put the lid back on convective/shower possibilities for the majority of the area tonight into Sunday. Though precipitation will be hard to come by through Sunday, the warmth will return in earnest, first with milder overnight lows tonight then for daytime highs Sunday reaching into the low to mid 70s.
The low will then track E/NE, reaching northeast Iowa by 00z Tue.
Will continue to mention areas of fog, with the high-resolution guidance focusing more on the eastern half of the CWA.
Quiet to begin the short term period with weak high pressure over the forecast area. For today, weak pressure pattern remains with slightly cooler temperatures aloft than yesterday. Highs today from the low to mid 20s around the Turtle Mountains, to the low to mid 30s southwest. Low level surface convergence will continue to keep the lower boundary layer moist. Models continue to pull the lower stratus over Manitoba southward today over eastern ND and potentially expand it westward into eastern portions of central ND.
A weak dirty ridge is moving across the region with quiet conditions across the CWA. but precipitation amounts are very light during this brief high pressure period. After that a cold front will move into the region with a weather system bringing mountain snow and valley rain with windy conditions in places. Temperatures will be moderately cool, in the lower elevations, and cold enough for snow in the mountains.
In addition, an upper level trough will approach the region, with the GFS indicating 850 mb winds of 35 to 40 knots and 750 mb winds of 50 to 60 knots, across our northern and western counties.
Clouds are decreasing this morning as the low moves east of the area.
During the afternoon hours, we should see continued IFR/MVFR ceilings prevailing as we await lift and thunderstorm initiation to our west in response to a west to east moving cold front.
A ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft today. Upper flow becomes more southwesterly as upper trough begins to approach the Tennessee Valley.
Kept the lower visibilities out of the Valley for now. SST at Buoy J (42044, 8 nm east of SPI) were in the lower 50s this afternoon, while Buoy K (about 40 nm east of SPI) were still in the lower 70s.
143 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 A cold front will exit the Downeast coast overnight. High pressure will build to our north Sunday into Sunday night.
A deep longwave trough was over the Four Corners region this morning, with zonal flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. The cyclone will strengthen as it moves into the Plains over the course of the day. Low and mid-level winds will take on more of a southwesterly component between low pressure and low-level ridging near the Southeast coast. Temperatures are very mild this morning thanks to that southwest flow in the low levels, with readings generally in the upper 40s to low 50s. Hi-res models suggest an area of enhanced moisture, along with the low-level jet, will result in spotty light rain from mid-morning on.
At the surface a ridge is departing the east coast and low pressure is developing over the plains. Low pressure in the plains will move toward the mid Mississippi Valley ahead of the aforementioned disturbance in the 4 corners region.
A storm system will move across the region today, bringing much cooler temperatures, an increase in winds, and chances for light rain. May still some breezes linger as high pressure builds to the north, but speeds should be a bit weaker than observed today. Another strong upper trough will develop across the western U.
Ahead of this front, southerly flow will allow for a continued increase in warmer, moist air across Central Alabama. A much larger upper low over the Rockies will move east- northeast into the Central Plains through tonight that will help to usher the surface system closer.
347 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will be shifting farther eastward through tonight.
cooler tomorrow. This may allow some fog to develop as slightly cooler air moves into northeast North Dakota and winds develop and upslope component. With cloudy skies and northeasterly winds, temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 degrees cooler.
/issued 321 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/ An upper trough is over southern California with southwest flow aloft over the CWA. The upper trough will begin to move over the region on Sunday with the base of the trough passing over the CWA. High winds from the base of the trough will mix downward towards the surface. A Pacific cold front will also move through the area on Sunday accompanied by west winds and cooler temperatures.
321 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Water vapor imagery showing large upper low across the Desert Southwest this morning, with nighttime microphysics channel highlighting an abundance of low clouds across the lower Missouri Vly in a well-established warm air and moisture advection regime. Quick look at latest observations reveals warming temperatures this morning, setting the stage for what should be a warm afternoon with high temps likely topping out in the lower 60s across much of the area. Periods of light drizzle will remain possible today, before precipitation grows more upscale in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as main cold front approaches from the west. Quick look at area fcst soundings shows a weak capping inversion persisting through the afternoon before increasing lift and the arrival of cooler temps aloft allow for gradual cap erosion.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 60 39 49 / 0 80 60 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 61 39 45 / 0 60 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 42 61 40 45 / 0 70 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 61 39 45 / 0 20 90 30.
335 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will be shifting farther eastward through tonight.
Pacific cold front passes around 15z to 16z Sunday, with southwest surface winds beginning to gust to around 35 kt. Canadian cold front arrives around 21z to 23z, shifting surface winds to northwest while increasing wind speeds with gusts at or above 40 kt at all terminals.
gusty southerly winds along with ceilings varying from MVFR to low VFR heights are forecast ahead of a cold front/dryline expected to move across the CWA toward the end of the TAF period. Dewpoints around 60F should reach the I-40 corridor tomorrow in advance of the merged cold front dry line.
A southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains as an amplified upper level trough of low pressure moves eastward across the Four Corners Region. The upper level trof that is to our west will move closer through the overnight period. Some freezing drizzle will be possible by morning as well, mainly across the I70 corridor. A trowal is expected to develop northwest of the 700-hPa cyclone, which right now, looks mainly to remain across northwest Kansas and into Nebraska.
/Tonight through Sunday/ The main concern during this period was focused on drizzle onset tonight and the potential for any freezing drizzle late tonight into Sunday morning. Models are in good agreement with the timing of drizzle tonight into Sunday morning and only change was delayed the onset slightly from previous forecast and have less mention of freezing drizzle overnight, especially over central to southern Iowa. Surface temperatures remain below freezing through much of the morning Sunday and with the northeast winds in place, this should help keep the surface temperatures cool enough for the FZDZ to occur. Certainly cannot rule out the overpasses/bridges, but it is something to monitor for potential headline.
Ahead of the area of low pressure, gusty southerly winds are occurring across the area. A much warmer air mass has ushered into the area, as temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to middle 60s this afternoon. Lows tonight will only cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. A cold front will push east across the area Sunday evening into Sunday night. As the surface and upper level lows push across the Plains, shear will increase across the region.
122 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 There have been enough breaks in the clouds over eastern Kentucky to cool many of the valleys into the middle and upper 30s while ridges are running about 10 degrees warmer. 23z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching from the west pushing high pressure out of the area to the east. All the light returns seen on the regional radars have been well to the north and west of the CWA so far this evening, but do expect more activity encroaching later tonight as the low pressure area gets a bit closer. Have adjusted the forecast mainly to adjust temperatures a bit warmer through the evening and overnight per the latest conditions and guidance. The boundary in the form of a warm front finally lifts north of the area taking the rainfall with it.
approaching the region tonight with the upper low moving into the Central Plains Sunday. This system will cause a Pacific front to move across the area Sunday with the cold front Sunday night.
Strong to damaging winds and extreme fire danger expected today An intense upper low currently over the Four Corners will continue moving east and lift into the Plains later today. Model soundings vary on how deep we will mix, but it won't matter too much given strong winds throughout the low and mid levels. The western half of the CWA has the best potential to see these stronger winds based on the proximity of the upper low. The High Wind Warning already out looks good and will add a Wind Advisory for most other areas.
256 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 Current surface map shows low deepening over southwest Kansas as upper low moves through the four corners region.
Thicker cloud cover should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today.
Split trough was working across the intermountain west this afternoon. Ridging will move in tonight and Sunday for quiet weather. This process will develop a lee trough Sunday night for increasing winds along the western foothills.
A cold front will approach the Mid-South Sunday Night.
With the recent warmer temperatures there is a crust on the snowpack so falling snow would be needed for blowing snow.
258 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 An upper level low pressure system will traverse the region today, with minimal impact other than increased clouds. At the surface, high pressure settling over the area will result in southerly/southeasterly flow, which will continue to allow for warmer temperatures.
Warmer temps and dewpoints will also bring the threat for patchy fog, mainly over the interior.
1030 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 Water vapor shows deep trof over the western CONUS with strong jet extending from just west of the Four Corners northeastward through WY and SE MT, then eastward across ND and northern MN.
1130 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Clouds overspread much of the region today as anticipated along with even warmer temperatures, helping to rid the snow where it persists.
449 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure over the southeast CONUS coupled with a large area of deepening low pressure over the southern plains is bringing milder air northward into our area on southerly winds.
Ridging aloft will continue to build through the forecast area today, as an upper low and trough swings east into and through the nation's mid-section overnight.
These warmer readings across the region do not give us extra confidence in an early evening transition to all snow over our southwest counties.
Freezing fog has redeveloped along I-80 east of Laramie, and getting some indications of freezing drizzle east of the Laramie Range. Added freezing drizzle from the I80 summit eastward into the southern NE panhandle tonight and into early Sunday morning. Winter headlines look on track this afternoon as water vapor showing upper low ejecting out of the desert southwest. Upper low tracks into south central Colorado this evening with our CWFA in favorable upper level diffluence to the north of the low.
909 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 An unseasonably cold air mass will remain in place across the region through early this week as high pressure slowly builds to the south of the area.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough will approach the area, bringing a good chance for showers to the area this evening. Heading into Monday, I expect periods of rain and snow to continue through the day as low pressure system passes to our southeast and another northern-stream wave moves into the area. Significant snow accumulations are unlikely during the daytime hours thanks to the springtime sun angle and high temperatures in the low 40s.
Low pressure off the Washington and north Oregon coasts will maintain showery and cool weather over southwest Washington and northwest Oregon today, with decreasing showers Monday as the low weakens and drifts away.
Latest 12z progs are very different in the handling of this backdoor cold front with the 00z GFS holding it up pretty much where it is now and the HRRR/NAM wanting to continue pushing it southward along its eastward flank into EC LA.
additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to push into the CWA as the low pressure system shifts eastward across Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas with a dryline moving into the region late tonight. The greater thunderstorm potential looks to be near the vicinity of the track of the low across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. the low pressure system will continue to push eastward and exit the CWA Monday afternoon. Majority of the precip looks to exit with the low. though there could remain some lingering isolated showers across the northern part of the CWA Monday afternoon/Monday night as a secondary impulse quickly moves through with the upper level trof axis. An associated cold front is also forecast to push southeast through the region Monday morning and exit with the departing low Monday afternoon.