Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
336 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 Scattered showers will continue to spread across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today in association with upper low lifting northeast through the ARKLATX region. The rain showers will likely begin to shift northeast of the area as upper low lifts into MO this evening. Some of the latest HRRR solutions suggest a narrow zone of moderate to high surface based instability will develop ahead of cold front along or just south of I-44. A few additional strong to severe thunderstorms could also develop across far southeast Oklahoma as cold front overtakes dry line during the evening hours, however most of this activity will likely mature east of the area across central Arkansas.
324 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Rain returns early in the week with crossing low pressure. Modified afternoon model soundings support siding with the warmer MOS guidance for high temperatures today, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected. The trough is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Monday, continuing the showers.
Precipitation looks to linger on Monday in the eastern and southern parts of the forecast area given the trough is slow to depart. The low even deeps a bit on Monday, which results in a tightening surface pressure gradient and ultimately increasing north-northwest winds.
150 AM MDT Sun May 2 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. At the surface, relatively light winds across our area early this morning with cold front pushing into eastern MT. As the cold front approaches by mid/late morning, showers will become more widespread across our western 2/3rds of zones, then spread through our far eastern zones this afternoon. Best chance for a few thunderstorms will generally be in the Black Hills and areas east/south where modest instability will reside along and ahead of the cold front.
228 AM MDT Sun May 2 2021 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge being shoved off over the Upper Mississippi Valley and a trough running south from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. Farther west offshore another ridge/trough couplet is setting up to replace the current one in a progressive pattern. Today through Tonight: As the Pac NW trough moves through the area today chances for isolated to scattered showers will occur across the region. These showers should clear out by tonight as cooler air moves in. Monday to Monday night: pattern will turn northwest as the ridge out west builds.
Models have trended lower with QPFs over the high country, but the potential does exist for 12+ inches above 10k feet from Sunday afternoon through Monday.
The trough is nearly stationary this afternoon and will actually become more like a warm front this evening as it slowly lift northward into the Sandhills. These appear to move eastward along and north of the warm front that lifts into the Sandhills this evening. The deeper/better moisture will be located to the east of the trough where dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s will be in place. Meanwhile a cold front will be surging southeastward across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska. A disturbance embedded within the flow could yield some shower activity along with a reinforcing shot of cooler air and breezy northwest winds. Winds will shift from northwesterly to northeasterly as a cold front pushes through the area today.
A weak ridge will build in behind this. Also on Sunday the next trough will move down across CA and into AZ overnight. Monday this trough will exit AZ and swing across NM moving across the Panhandle Monday night. High pressure returns after that.
At the surface, low pressure is situated over Eastern CO with a cold front extending from southern MN into northern Nebraska. A few showers or storms will be possible over far southeast KS today as the upper low tracks over central/southern AR. Models remain consistent in developing storms along a southward surging cold front this evening over northwest KS. Cold front will continue pushing south on Mon with storms expected to develop along it during the late afternoon hours. By the end of the work week upper troughing is expected to settle over the Pacific Northwest with another upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. The highest confidence TAF sites are RSL, GBD, and SLN, with lower confidence at HUT and ICT.
217 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft is now situated to our east this morning, and a strong upper low is currently developing over northeast Texas. More widespread showers and also a few storms are expected tonight before the upper trough passes over Middle Tennessee. A weak ridge at the surface and aloft will actually build into the mid state for a short period on Monday. While we do expect the atmosphere to destabilize considerably during the day, the weak ridging may help limit POP's until Monday evening. By then, a cold front will be approaching the Mississippi River while intensifying rapidly.
The cutoff upper low currently over central Texas is progged to lift northeast today, and as it does so will eject a vort max up into southwestern Indiana this afternoon and into the forecast area this evening and move through tonight. Monday, while instability increases later in the day across the area, soundings indicate the presence of a cap, and weak, brief upper ridging shows up in the 500 mb pattern.
1129 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Rain returns early in the week with crossing low pressure. Ridging and strengthening SW flow at the sfc will maintain dry weather and push area temperature will above seasonal averages Sunday, with some locations 80 degrees. Expect clouds to increase through the aftn/eve as mid-level moist advection ramps up in advance of an incoming trough. That trough will quickly lift from the Mississippi Delta towards the Ohio River Valley late Sunday into Monday, weakening as it slowly phases with another weak northern trough.
A warm front is moving north through the forecast area with moisture continuing to increase. This low is project to lift out to the northeast. Water vapor appears to show upper trough opening up over west Texas and vigorous convection over south Texas becoming more progressive. Upper trough will lift northeast into the Arklatex through Sunday. A warm humid air mass is expected behind the upper trough with low temperatures over most areas remaining in the 70s.
Temperatures are still well into the 60s to around 70, despite the lower dewpoints in the 40s. The forecast highs are in the lower 80s with 925mb temps expected to be around 21 or 22C. However, the front is expected to remain stationary over central WI until at least Monday morning before an upper trough can start kicking it out of here.
1045 PM PDT Sat May 1 2021 Gusty northerly winds likely Sunday and Monday resulting in increased fire weather concerns and warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be warmer, humidities lower and gusty northerly winds will increase fire weather concerns the next several days.
320 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 An upper level trof will move northeast from TX over the Arklatex region today, and across our area tonight. In the wake of the upper trof, there may not be much convective activity Monday as capping develops H8/H7.
An upper level low is evident on satellite imagery this morning moving into Central Texas. As the upper low moves farther to the northeast skies will clear across the region. The low level flow will become westerly to southwesterly as an area of low pressure moves across the Panhandle into OK. Tonight high pressure over the Gulf will push back to the west and turn the low level flow more southerly to southeasterly bringing moister air back into the eastern half of our CWA. A dryline will move in from West Texas during the day Monday making it another hot day with highs a little warmer than Sunday.
Much cooler air filters in as well on northerly winds with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s expected. For now, will continue to hold with bringing the low cigs in later, with the expected pcpn. WX/vsby: latest RAP/HRRR a bit quicker with pcpn onset at KRST/KLSE, although still mostly tied to the cold/warm fronts. Warm front slated to sag south to around the I-90 corridor.
Hopefully, the high resolution short range models wl have a better handle regarding convection trends heading into Mon.
As the western trough crosses the Rockies into the Plains, it will help eject the Texas low northeastward later today and tonight. Based on the projected track, the highest PoPs for showers and isolated thunder will be focused east of the Illinois River tonight. to the lower 80s north of I-72. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s. Despite the weaker instability in central Illinois, think shear will be strong enough to trigger scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along/ahead of the cold front late Monday afternoon and evening.
There is some potential for severe storms Monday afternoon as a cold front moves the area.
1017 PM MDT Sat May 1 2021 A flat upper ridge exists over the region this afternoon, leading to mostly sunny skies over the region. A cold front will enter northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota early Sunday morning and will move through our central South Dakota zones by mid-afternoon. A few showers (and possibly snow showers at higher elevations) will linger into early Monday as an upper trough axis crosses the Northern Plains.
/issued 932 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021/ Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this evening ahead of an upper trof that is currently over Texas. The upper trof will begin to lift northeastward overnight and will move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Sunday. Showers ahead of the upper level trof will begin to spread into the Mid-South during the overnight hours. High pressure will shift to the east and an upper low over southern Texas will start to lift northeast early Sunday. Guidance still depicts weakening of the upper trough as it lifts towards the Ohio Valley. However, an upper jet behind the upper low may aid storm development/maintenance by late Sunday afternoon/evening.
Increasing Clouds--Still a Pleasant Weekend: Another gorgeous, albeit breezy day was in progress this afternoon as the pressure gradient gradually tightens on the backside of our departing ridge. High cirrus were already overspreading the forecast area ahead of this low and clouds should continue to thicken through the afternoon and evening. Unsettled Start to the Week Medium range solutions have slowed the eastward advance of a cold front Sunday night into Monday, bringing it through mainly after 06Z. Convection developing off the High Plains may congeal into an MCS and propagate eastward within a corridor of higher theta-e air resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE/MUCAPE. There still remains some uncertainty in how far eastward the cold front and resultant severe weather threat will push before peak heating on Monday.
/Issued 655 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021/ Upper low is currently spinning over southern TX near San Antonio. The highest chances of showers and storms will be across the eastern portion of the area.
302 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Potent upper level low pressure system spinning over central TX right now, per latest water vapor satellite imagery. Ridging is over our neck of the woods this hour, with upper clouds riding up the west side of that ridge. At the surface, high pressure off the Carolina is pushing up against lower pressure over the Plains to create a general south to southeast winds across central KY/southern IN. The upper low will take on a negative tilt as it moves into the Arklatex region this afternoon. This system should force several storms to develop across the Lower MS Valley. Tonight, the upper trough axis will cross into the region.
933 PM MDT Sat May 1 2021 The leading edge of the trough is moving across the region now, sparking scattered showers. The cold front will be dropping southward overnight tonight, entering north WY around midnight, near the Divide by sunrise, and exiting south into CO by noon. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler tomorrow, with highs struggling into the 50s during the afternoon.
Fair weather will continue through tonight with high pressure in place and overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s. On Sunday, high pressure will slide eastward with returning flow off the Gulf increasing low level moisture. Though this feature will be departing the region by Monday afternoon, enough lift and instability will exist, especially over the western half of the region (well removed from the mid level ridge east of the Florida Peninsula) to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the daytime hours Monday. The modest southerly flow will keep it feeling more like summer with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Highs warm again today with 70s everywhere, however a little warmer from about 80 to 85 in northeast NE and northwest IA.
317 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 A couple of short wave troughs to our west embedded in zonal flow along with the closed low in TX pulling out to the northeast are our weather makers for the next few days. Best chances of precip through Monday morning will be with the cold front in the northwest part of the CWA and the upper level low in the southeast part of the CWA.
Much cooler air filters in as well on northerly winds with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s expected.
526 AM MDT Sun May 2 2021 A cold front was pushing through northwest Wyoming as of 10z. The I-80 summit will see the higher impacts after sunset this evening.
A low pressure trough over eastern Nevada today brings a few showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns with a warming trend starting on Monday.
Upper level analysis places trough dropping through the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Cooler air will also gradually wrap into the area, though some parts of the James River Valley may still reach the 70s where the cooler air will be slower to arrive and most of the precipitation will not show up until later in the day. Quiet but cooler conditions expected for Monday as most locations will only see highs in the 50s. Ridge then builds over the west coast, bringing northwest flow to our area.
Winds will switch to the north behind a cold front by mid to late evening. Low level moisture will return ahead of this low and the convergence ahead of this low may be sufficient enough to produce a few thunderstorms, mainly in the Oklahoma Panhandle late this afternoon and evening. A cold front moves south across the Panhandles tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to make a return to the region Monday and Monday night as a couple of short wave troughs embedded in the larger trough move over our area. By Monday evening the trough axis will be oriented along the Rocky Mountains.
626 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions today. An upper level low pressure system lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the region Sunday night and Monday.
726 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 A warm front over northern PA and western NY will meander north and south for a few days.
Breezy conditions along with cooler temperatures are expected through Monday with highs dropping into the lower 90s. At the surface, a weak cold front was located near KLAS and extends northeastward into southern Utah.
617 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper low is currently moving northeast across central Texas. A band of wrap around showers has affected our eastern counties into the overnight hours, but these will exit the area prior to 6 AM as the low continues to move northeast. The low will open into a trough today, with the trough lifting northeast to the Mississippi Valley late this afternoon. With the departure of this system, drier and *much* warmer conditions are in store for our area today. Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the mid 80s in our eastern counties, to the lower 90s across some of the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. With a significant change in airmasses, the 850mb temperatures will be 10-15 deg C warmer across our area today.
940 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 High clouds have spread across the Tennessee Valley ahead of the warm front approaching from the south. As the warm front gets closer, we will continue to saturate, and heavier rainfall will move into northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon. Afternoon highs should reach the lower 80s for most areas, and perhaps the middle 80s in northwest AL.
An upper level low pressure system will bring cool and unsettled weather to the area through Monday. A drying and warming trend will follow for midweek as high pressure builds across the region.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast new Mexico in clear air mode on the backside of the trough, which is approaching the ArklaTex. Upstream, the next trough is digging out of the PacNW, and will dig to the Four Corners by around 12Z Monday, transitioning flow aloft from NW to SW. These winds will add a downslope warming component to afternoon temperatures, which should plateau in a respectable 90s or better for all but the higher elevations. The PacNW trough will move through the region Monday, driving a Pac front through the region and taking afternoon highs closer to normal.
An upper level trof will move northeast from TX over the Arklatex region today, and across our area tonight. In the wake of the upper trof, there may not be much convective activity Monday as capping develops H8/H7.
521 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 A warm front over northern PA and western NY will meander north and south for a few days.
425 AM MDT Sun May 2 2021 A cold front was pushing through northwest Wyoming as of 10z. The I-80 summit will see the higher impacts after sunset this evening.
It will be cooler today and tomorrow before warming up later this week as high pressure builds over the area.
A couple of short wave troughs to our west embedded in zonal flow along with the closed low in TX pulling out to the northeast are our weather makers for the next few days. Best chances of precip through Monday morning will be with the cold front in the northwest part of the CWA and the upper level low in the southeast part of the CWA.
In advance, a plume of 325k+ 0-3km theta-e was being drawn northward across east TX/LA by the circulation around the low. As the system nears and the flow increases, more widespread convection will develop along and north of the warm front as it moves out of south LA northward across the forecast area. At present mid level lapse rates are not that impressive nor will they be in the short term with the widespread forced precipitation, nevertheless, convection will become more robust through the morning, mainly in the south, with limited heating and especially along the warm front where the low level shear will be maximized.
Gusty northerly winds likely through Monday resulting in increased fire weather concerns and warmer temperatures. The area of mid-level clouds associated with the upper trough continues to move southeast and now roughly covers the area from Plumas County south to around the Sacramento area. The remainder of interior NorCal is seeing clear skies on the backside of the trough as northerly flow takes over.
High pressure at the surface and aloft is now situated to our east this morning, and a strong upper low is currently developing over northeast Texas. More widespread showers and also a few storms are expected tonight before the upper trough passes over Middle Tennessee. A weak ridge at the surface and aloft will actually build into the mid state for a short period on Monday. While we do expect the atmosphere to destabilize considerably during the day, the weak ridging may help limit POP's until Monday evening. By then, a cold front will be approaching the Mississippi River while intensifying rapidly.
826 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Rain returns early in the week with crossing low pressure. Ridging will result in dry weather today. Modified afternoon model soundings support siding with the warmer MOS guidance for high temperatures today, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected. The trough is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Monday, continuing the showers.
531 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Rain returns early in the week with crossing low pressure. Modified afternoon model soundings support siding with the warmer MOS guidance for high temperatures today, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected. The trough is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Monday, continuing the showers.
The core of an upper level trough is expected to approach the Four Corners by Monday morning.
856 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions today. An upper level low pressure system lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the region Sunday night and Monday.
653 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure over the region will provide for dry conditions today. A low pressure system over east Texas will approach the region on Monday with increasing moisture and the opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure centered over the Carolinas will slide off the southeast coast today. Return flow around the high will result in a warming southwest wind. An area of low pressure over east Texas will move northeast into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys by tonight. a warm front extending east from the low into the southern Appalachians.
759 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Ridging aloft eases eastward across the state today as Atlantic high pressure continues to builds into the Gulf of Mexico, with an axis near the Florida Keys. Highs will reach the lower 90s inland with heat indices in the mid 90s. Atlantic high pressure builds in across the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days with a tightening gradient, resulting in winds reaching 15-20 knots at times.
Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to low 80s and with dewpoints in the low 70s, it feels quite muggy out. This deeper moisture is associated with a remnant frontal trough/boundary that is currently lifting northward across central Florida, and we could see some showers develop along this boundary late this morning mainly north of Orlando. A strengthening ridge aloft should keep coverage of convection on the lower side so will maintain 20% PoPs over most of the area except 30-40% toward Seminole, Lake, and Volusia counties where deeper moisture will reside.
Temperatures have already climbed into the lower to mid 80s and are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
Westerly flow aloft turns southwesterly across the central high plains today and tonight ahead of the trough that deepens into the southwest U. A short wave trough embedded in the upper flow moves across the central High Plains region this evening behind the cold front that is expected to move slowly across the forecast area through the day today. Cooler air continues to push into the region on Monday with the area of precipitation moving further south across the forecast area.
301 AM PDT Sun May 2 2021 Breezy north winds and cooler temperatures today will be followed by another warmup through mid week as high pressure builds across the Great Basin.
446 AM MDT Sun May 2 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. At the surface, relatively light winds across our area early this morning with cold front pushing into eastern MT. As the cold front approaches by mid/late morning, showers will become more widespread across our western 2/3rds of zones, then spread through our far eastern zones this afternoon. Best chance for a few thunderstorms will generally be in the Black Hills and areas east/south where modest instability will reside along and ahead of the cold front.