Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
622 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Overnight lows will fall below freezing again tonight under clearing skies.
1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Key Messages: - Temperatures will creep up a couple degrees each day through the end of the week but remain well below average - Light precipitation possible periodically through the end of the week with a stronger system into the weekend Discussion: A large upper level low is departing the area today, lifting across the Great Lakes region and into New England. With the departing low moving east and a second low building to the southwest, the area will benefit from weak thermal ridging into the area, allowing temperatures to warm a few degrees each day through the end of the week.
743 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Clearing and cold tonight with subfreezing temps expected for most.
405 PM MDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far southeast AB, with a nearly stationary warm front stretching southeast across eastern MT and into western SD. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the northern high Plains, with low pressure over the western Great Lakes and another off the BC coast. Seasonably mild and mostly dry weather is expected to continue through midweek as ridge gradually moves over and eventually east of the area by late week.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track as high pressure east of Florida continues dry, clear, and quiet conditions tonight. A weak cold front will transition central Florida Wednesday, stalling south of KMCO by midday. Favorable boating conditions continue as high pressure remains just east of the local Atlantic waters. SSE/SE winds 10-15kts veer to SSW/SW through the night as the high drifts south.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 72 47 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 68 45 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 68 45 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 64 39 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 TN.
859 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 High pressure to our northwest continues to advect cool and dry air into the Tennessee Valley. Expect lows to bottom out in the lower 40s for northern Alabama and upper 30s for southern middle Tennessee. Despite even lighter winds Wednesday night, as the area of high pressure moves just northeast of the area, westerly to southerly low level flow should make for a warmer night. Lows should still drop into the lower to mid 40s though, given clear skies and lighter winds.
/Issued 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Surface winds continue to veer to a more southeasterly direction, as a high pressure ridge centered near Memphis moves slowly eastward and away from the region.
126 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Clearing and cold tonight with subfreezing temps expected for most.
304 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Other than scattered rain and snow showers today, cooler and dry weather is expected the remainder of the work week. Building high pressure should result in clearing skies and diminishing wind tonight.
125 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites tonight and this will continue through the period, as high pressure ridging strengthens over the region. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: Most light shower activity has now exited the area and clearing continues in the wake of a cold front. With surface ridging building in, expect mostly clear conditions to persist through the next 24 hours.
Upper ridging firmly in control across the Great Plains this morning with this ridge expected to flatten as we move into Thursday. At the sfc, ridge axis firmly entrenched across our region will slowly shift east today, allowing for more of a southerly component to the wind field today. Warm air advection really begins kicking in across our region on Thursday with daytime highs ranging in the lower to middle 80s areawide.
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight, and will begin to shift to the east tomorrow.
Temperatures are cooling quickly as a drier air mass advects into the area behind an exiting cold front. 58/rose Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 154 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022/ The cold front continues to push southeastward through Central Alabama early this afternoon, with cooler and drier air pushing southeastward. Much cooler air filters in overnight tonight, and we'll see widespread 40s across much of the area.
A progressive pattern will bring a parade of low amplitude upper troughs and ridges through the area.
Upper level high pressure gives in to approaching low pressure moving into the Northeast today. Then, high pressure builds from the west behind it. The aforementioned upper level high pressure continues to build through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Freezing levels will fall and our western mountains will begin to pick up healthier snow accumulations as well.
Models remain in good agreement in regards to depth and timing of trough as it crosses the Great Basin Thursday.
High pressure ridge will continue to shift east of our region today, allowing for more of a southerly component to the predominant east wind at the surface. Otherwise, upper-level ridging to maintain mostly clear skies overnight.
353 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front right along the coast which will push offshore over the next few hours. This will pave way to a noticeably cooler day than the last few days, with high temps only in the low/mid 70s. High pressure ridging from the NW and ongoing CAA will keep area dry and cool Thursday, with clear skies and high temps in the low 70s.
Upper level ridging across the region is being replaced by upper troughing, with a series of embedded waves forecast to pass through over the next day or two. The first wave will pass through the region this afternoon and evening paired with a Pacific cold front.
This AM surface ridging is building across E Conus. We have a clear satellite across C AL this morning with little if any cloud cover expected through the short term thanks to this ridging. With the 1028mb ridge in place to the N of AL and N/NE flow in the lower levels and NW flow aloft in the state, one more snap of cool air has been ushered into AL for this morning. Winds will be N-NE today, light to near calm tonight, and then become E-SE on Thursday as the center of the ridge shifts some to the E. We are looking at dry/rain free conditions along with pleasant but slowly moderating conditions through the short term as a result of the ridging and shift.
406 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure moves into the region today bringing below average temperatures and abundant sunshine. Frost is likely in central Ohio tonight as temperatures drop into the low 30s under the high. Frosty conditions this morning, especially north of the Ohio River, will give way to abundant sunshine today thanks to high pressure moving in from the northwest. Expect highs in the lower 50s across central Ohio to the middle 60s by the Ohio River with northwesterly winds. High pressure drifts further northeast on Thursday. Moderating temperatures and increasing clouds develop over the area in the southeasterly flow southwest of the high.
Otherwise, a pleasant evening is forecast with southerly winds and much warmer morning lows in the mid to upper 40s for most areas. The focus for late in the week and into the weekend turns to a deepening and approaching trough/low.
Northwest flow aloft will persist through Thursday while high pressure at the surface will extend southward from the Great Lakes region.
115 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Warm front will be returning overnight with return of low clouds across West Central Texas. A few light showers may also continue in that area in the morning, associated with the warm front.
Periods of gusty west winds across the mountains and deserts can be expected with the passage of two weak troughs today and again on Thursday. The troughing pattern will also contribute to a deeper marine layer, enhancing low cloud and fog development for folks west of the mountains.
High pressure will then gradually build into the region, bringing fair weather with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. Compact upper low currently pushing into the region early this morning. Mixed showers will continue through much of this morning as the upper low slowly moves through the region. Nearly all of the precipitation will fade away this afternoon as the upper low exits. Drier air working into the region tonight ahead of building high pressure will result in clearing skies. An upper level ridge will lie across the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes Thursday, before building and pushing east towards the eastern Great Lakes this weekend. Said ridge will be sandwiched between two upper level troughs, one over eastern Canada/New England and the other near the Continental Divide.
The cold front will be east of the area to start this period but some moisture may be left over to cause a few showers in the southeast Big Bend this afternoon. Cooler is relative; just a degree or three lower from previous highs. Skies will be sunny (west of the southeast Big Bend) today with readings in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will move east towards the eastern seaboard which will switch winds to the east overnight tonight as lows will bottom out in the 50s.
Isolated light rain showers possible over the higher terrain in Idaho through 2200 hrs tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will accompany this trough as it sweeps through the forecast area.
Grass has been greening up as well over southeast Michigan, and will just stay close to latest MAV guidance, which calls for the lows in the 20s/near record cold, with downtown Detroit/eastern Wayne a bit warmer (around 30 degrees).
Winds will remain over 12 knots through the morning hours at KNEW, but should relax by the afternoon as high pressure becomes more centered over the area. Winds will remain gusty at NEW and MSY through the overnight hours as cooler air moving over the warmer waters of Lake Pontchartrain allow for some thermal mixing of stronger boundary layer winds down to the surface.
(Today) High pressure sits over the Ohio River Valley this morning, keeping skies clear across the east-central CONUS including the Tennessee Valley. This in addition to the clear skies is helping temperatures drop into the low 40s this morning. We may even see a few cooler spots drop down into the upper 30s. Winds will be decreasing with flow turning more easterly aloft as the high shifts eastward. With sunny skies today temperatures will get back into the low-to-mid 70s this afternoon despite the cool morning.
However, the cooler daytime temperatures and northerly winds this afternoon should limit the risk of quick spreading fires.
A shallow upper trough over the Southeast moves off, with a surface cold front along the northern Gulf coast continuing to move south over the northern Gulf. Cooler and drier air will move over the forecast area into Wednesday. The diurnal temperature range will increase as increasing upper subsidence brings increasing high temperatures, from mid to upper 70s Wednesday to the low 80s on Thursday. The dry airmass and cooler northerly flow through Wednesday night will keep low temperatures below seasonal norms through the Near Term. Tonight, am still expecting temperatures to drip into the low to mid 50s, with good mixing from a decent (around 10 knot) northerly wind helping to keep temperatures from dropping further. It should be noted that with the very dry airmass in place tomorrow, minimum relative humidity values could lower into the lower 20s range.
428 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Currently - A high cell centered off the Florida Atlantic coast continues to slide southeastward as a mid latitude trough expands off the Atlantic coast further north. Both local soundings indicate drier air has moved in through the lower levels. Forecast - The mid latitude trough will continue to spread out to sea off the northeast coast. The cold front associated with the mid latitude trough will stall as it moves into Central or South Florida over the next several days. Expect day time highs to rise a degree or two above normal, while radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to slip into the lower to mid 70s.
141 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Much cooler temperature is expected the remainder of the work week with scattered rain and snow showers tonight and Wednesday. Redevelopment of scattered rain and snow showers is expected develop tonight as a cold upper low digs over the region with northwest flow. High pressure will then maintain dry conditions the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
158 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A cold front will move well offshore overnight. Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. Cool and dry advection overnight will be more noticeable Wednesday afternoon as temperatures remain capped 10 degrees cooler than today's whereas dewpoints will tumble by twice that amount. Quiet period here, with high pressure continuing to sink in from the northwest. Highs Thursday in the low-to-mid 70s. This causes low temperatures Thursday night to be a bit warmer than the previous night, generally in the upper 40s. Stacked low pressure well off to the northeast continues to slowly push to the ESE throughout the weekend, with only some modest ridging moving into the Carolinas.
With very dry air in the low levels, the chance for rain to reach the ground today is pretty low, so we cut back pops more. There is very little concern for any travel hazards given warm road temps and very marginal conditions for any freezing rain or sleet to mix in with rain.
327 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Chilly weather continues today with highs ranging from the lower 40s near Lake Michigan and into the upper 40s to near 50 well inland. Another round of freezing temperatures expected late tonight, mainly across southern Michigan, northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio. Ridging surface/aloft in wake of strong cutoff low over north central Lower Michigan progressing eastward into New England by this evening. Decent amount of insolation and warming 850-800 mb layer today should allow surface temperatures to rebound from sub- freezing this morning to a few degrees warmer than yesterday. For tonight 925mb thermal trough shifts eastward into Quebec/Lower Great Lakes with southwest periphery into northeast CWA. Progressive increase in longwave ridging over the next several days into the weekend as northeast CONUS vortex slows across Canadian Maritimes.
No significant weather expected for the next 24 hours with high pressure anchored over the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 47 77 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 45 73 52 72 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 68 45 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 39 68 46 67 / 0 0 0 10 20 TN.
133 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 The cold front will cross the area through early tonight.
135 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A cold front will impact the region tonight followed by high pressure into late week. The cold front is poised to move through most if not the entire forecast area prior to daybreak. We will need to consider short duration Lake Wind Advisory on lake Moultrie between 5 and 10 AM as cooler air arrives in tandem with modest isallobaric pressure climbs.
321 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer with some wind for Wednesday.
Mitigating factors for overnight lows bottoming out will be an increase in high clouds and a slight increase in winds late tonight as high pressure shifts east of the region. Even still, am expecting lows to drop into the lower to middle 30s. Gradient winds remain elevated this afternoon as the upper low continues to push across northern Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper Peninsula, with some gusts 20-25 mph or so. The surface boundary trailing from the low to our north is expected to settle over central Illinois Wednesday morning, before beginning a northward push in the afternoon. A more prominent northward shove of the front should take place Wednesday evening, as upper level ridging builds east across the nation's mid section.
Continued upper-level ridging will keep temperatures mild on Wednesday. Temperatures will still be influenced by the ridge, so highs in the 60s and 70s will continue. An upper-level trough is progged to move into the region Thursday night, however this will likely provide enough lift Thursday afternoon to trigger another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The models are showing increased confidence of another significant trof moving towards the Pacific northwest.
1236 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows extensive cloud cover across most of the area, although it has been breaking up slowly from northwest to southeast as drier air on the backside of the upper trough works into the region. However, low pressure will emerge across the southern Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday, and return flow will setup across the forecast area during the day Thursday.
Water vapor imagery shows that we remain just barely on the periphery of a ridge that is gradually being shoved across the central Atlantic by an approaching trough. A cold front stretches from a low centered over and near Cape Cod and extends southwest into the western Gulf of Mexico, where it has stalled. Otherwise, as the ridge continues to slide east an away from us, winds will gradually continue to diminish. Overnight lows will once again fall into the lower to mid 70s. As ridge continues to slide east, breezes will gradually slacken by Wednesday morning.
1108 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Much cooler temperature is expected the remainder of the work week with scattered rain and snow showers tonight and Wednesday. Redevelopment of scattered rain and snow showers is expected develop tonight as a cold upper low digs over the region with northwest flow. High pressure will then maintain dry conditions the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
As high pressure settles over middle TN VFR conditions and N/NE winds of 10 kts or less is expected.
An upper trough will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for the next few days.
Some of this precip may reach the ground early this morning in the form of rain/freezing rain/or sleet, although impacts will be highly limited given dry sub cloud layer and weak forcing. Attention then turns toward the expected Rockies deep upper trough, which will slowly push east Thur-Fri and support a good chance for precip in the region Thur night through Sat.
Temperatures will max out here shortly and then fall into the low-mid 50s this evening. For Wednesday, mostly sunny conditions are expected with slightly warmer temperatures. Highs should top out in the mid 60s across southern Indiana, with the bluegrass region of central Kentucky remaining in the lower 60s. Dry and cooler than normal weather continues into Thursday. Broad upper level ridging will be in place over the central CONUS with NW flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. South-central KY appears likely to reach the lower 70s.
339 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A dry and cooler air mass will build into the region today and Thursday.
Despite weak upper ridging over South Texas today, enough moisture remains trapped below this stable layer with PWATs of 1. Surface winds will turn more southeasterly today as weak surface ridging peels away and this will serve to limit low level moisture from mixing out too much this afternoon. Radiation fog potential looks a little better after midnight from the Coastal Plains into the Brush Country where soundings show a drier layer atop a shallow and nearly saturated layer in the lowest 30 mb. Meanwhile, another minor impulse aloft during the day on Thursday in semi-zonal flow looks too insignificant for any precip as even warmer H7-H8 temps serve to cap the region.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front currently approaching southeast Alabama.
1104 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Overnight lows will fall below freezing again tonight under clearing skies.
The main issue will be the low relative humidity values along with the strong southwest winds each afternoon which will keep us with near-critical to critical fire weather conditions.
Thursday, much of the area looks capped to daytime convection with the dryline set up well west of the area and weak ridging set up over the region.
133 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A cold front will shift offshore tonight. High pressure will begin to build toward the area late Wednesday and the high will then persist nearby through the weekend.
Today Through Thursday Night Quiet weather conditions were ongoing this morning across the Mid- South thanks to high pressure centered invof IL/IN/KY. Aloft, a broadening and flattening ridge will move into the region today.
Some of this lower stratus field could expand into COT in the coming hours before low ceilings scatter out to VFR by midday. Despite weak upper ridging over South Texas today, enough moisture remains trapped below this stable layer with PWATs of 1. Surface winds will turn more southeasterly today as weak surface ridging peels away and this will serve to limit low level moisture from mixing out too much this afternoon. Radiation fog potential looks a little better after midnight from the Coastal Plains into the Brush Country where soundings show a drier layer atop a shallow and nearly saturated layer in the lowest 30 mb. Meanwhile, another minor impulse aloft during the day on Thursday in semi-zonal flow looks too insignificant for any precip as even warmer H7-H8 temps serve to cap the region.
High pressure will remain in control today with SKC and E/SE winds with afternoon. Today Through Thursday Night Quiet weather conditions were ongoing this morning across the Mid- South thanks to high pressure centered invof IL/IN/KY. Aloft, a broadening and flattening ridge will move into the region today.
621 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 (Today) High pressure sits over the Ohio River Valley this morning, keeping skies clear across the east-central CONUS including the Tennessee Valley. This in addition to the clear skies is helping temperatures drop into the low 40s this morning. We may even see a few cooler spots drop down into the upper 30s. Winds will be decreasing with flow turning more easterly aloft as the high shifts eastward. With sunny skies today temperatures will get back into the low-to-mid 70s this afternoon despite the cool morning.
A band of increased winds aloft along and ahead of the trough axis will shift eastward across the state today.
241 AM PDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cooler weather with a greater influence from the marine layer is expected through Thursday. Strong westerly winds across the mountains and deserts will be boosted by a trough of low pressure moving through the region.
1021 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will prevail into late week. High temps should be 75-80 inland from the cooler shoreline locations, warmest in GA. Tonight: High pressure will build in from the northwest and strengthen through the night, allowing for clear skies to dominate. Prevailing high pressure will shift south on Thursday and another dry day is expected.
930 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front right along the coast which will push offshore over the next few hours. This will pave way to a noticeably cooler day than the last few days, with high temps only in the low/mid 70s. High pressure ridging from the NW and ongoing CAA will keep area dry and cool Thursday, with clear skies and high temps in the low 70s.
High temperatures still on track to only reach the low to mid 40s for most areas, with upper 30s most likely across the Lake Huron nearshore in cool, northwest flow off the lake. An upper level low is quickly exiting east of the region this morning, with good deep layer subsidence in its wake. Grass has been greening up as well over southeast Michigan, and will just stay close to latest MAV guidance, which calls for the lows in the 20s/near record cold, with downtown Detroit/eastern Wayne a bit warmer (around 30 degrees).