Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
528 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the trough swinging north over the Northern Plains. The trough axis was moving through the Plains. With the clouds clearing as drier air moves in, highs will be warmer than yesterday. Tonight cloud cover will increase as a weak upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to the lack of CAA. Therefore highs will be warmer than today. Saturday night a weak upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area. The cloud cover and increasing dew points will cause lows to be warmer than tonight. At the start of the period, weak upper ridging extends over the central CONUS with an upper trough just off the west coast.
This is especially true for northeast Oklahoma where some areas could see temperatures below freezing early Saturday morning. A strong cold front is currently working through the Tulsa metro area with temperatures set to fall a good 20 degrees over the next hour or so. As mentioned earlier, temperatures are forecast to bottom out near freezing across portions of Osage and Washington Counties in northeast Oklahoma early Saturday morning. However, later shifts may need to issue if the forecast of below freezing temperatures becomes more certain. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have blossomed in advance of the cold front this morning in a zone of isentropic lift.
555 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Expect cooler than normal conditions to continue through tomorrow. Mountain snow showers this morning may spread into the lower elevations this afternoon into tonight as a weak cold front pushes across the state.
Cold front is advancing south faster than models have suggested, therefore timing was adjusted accordingly. /issued 337 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/ A strong cold front will move through the area today with chilly temperatures to end the week and a chance of rain developing tonight into Saturday. The well-advertised cold front is speeding south at this hour as it enters the northern Permian Basin. Clouds will develop behind the front, but any precipitation will stay mainly across the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. Southerly winds return Saturday night along with much warmer conditions.
553 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Upper low over western Canada will gradually weaken while a trof digs south along the west coast. The cold high pressure over the region will move off to the east today with another wave rounding the western Canadian low. Ebert VFR as high pressure moves out of the region today.
Deep layer ridging building over the area today with mid-upper level ridge axis over north-central GoMex across into the TN Valley and more broad surface ridging across the eastern CONUS centered to our north. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday as the airmass in place moderates under diurnal heating. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 50s, upper 50s along the immediate coastline.
A short wave trof over the Plains States will flatten out and weaken as it tracks towards the Ohio Valley region. Mid to high level clouds in advance of the trof will spill over into Alabama today, but a strong low level ridge over the Southeast States will keep Gulf moisture from advecting inland. The drier air will keep showers associated with upper trof confined to areas west of Alabama through Saturday. Warm air advection in the lower levels will produce above normal temperatures, with highs in the middle to upper 70s each day, with lower 80s possible across the southern counties on Saturday.
704 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 The cold front at 4 AM has reached the far western Wisconsin counties. This precipitation is comprised entirely of freezing rain and rates look impressive based on radar imagery. Colder air will continue to filter in during the next several hours and this freezing rain is encountering temperatures in the mid 20s. Only a few showers are noted farther west of this batch of freezing rain, and most of the precip across the western half of Minnesota has ended. Drier air will arrive tonight with clearing skies this evening and dew points dropping into the low or mid teens. Lows tonight will be in the low teens northwest to low 20s east.
The main mid and upper trough will rotate out of the area today, taking the cold core with it. Westerly flow aloft will continue to bring warmer temps into the region for Saturday, with highs returning back to near normal in the 40s and 50s for lower elevations, and into the lower 30s for higher elevations. Southwest flow returns to the forecast area Saturday night as a trough digs in along the west coast with a closed low off the OR coast.
205 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Strong cold front currently bisecting the CWA with temperatures in the 30s over southeast Kansas into western MO and in the mid 60s east of the front. The clouds will help to keep temperatures from tanking tonight, with some temperatures near freezing over southeast Kansas and into central Missouri, but we are not expecting a hard freeze with temperatures near freezing and not below for very long.
Cold front surged through the area this morning, with temperatures holding in the upper 30s across the Big Country, and 40s farther south across the Concho Valley and Heartland.
The main forcing is focused along and ahead of a cold front that extends from Fayetteville, Arkansas southwestward across McCurtain County, Oklahoma to Quitman, Texas. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage and intensity overnight as the cold front stalls. As the front stalls and straddles our region, the thermal gradient will be very evident tomorrow with highs ranging from the lower to mid 50s from Tyler, TX to Idabel, OK to the lower to mid 70s for locations like Natchitoches, Jena, and Monroe in Louisiana.
245 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Latest mesoanalysis/sfc obs/area radars show the cold front down in the lwr Trans Pecos, w/a line of convection extending along the front into central Texas. CAA will continue overnight, banking colder air up against the higher terrain Saturday, yielding unseasonably cool temperatures, especially over the upper Colorado Rvr valley. Wed or so, long-range models begin moving the west coast trough onshore around the CA/Baja border. The GFS is fastest, bringing the trough to the Texas Panhandle by 00Z Fri.
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 /18Z TAFS/ Cold front has made it as far south as the southern terminals early this afternoon, with convection blossoming across the southern third of the area. /issued 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/ /12Z TAFS/ A cold front is currently sweeping quickly southward across the region. /issued 442 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and bring gusty winds, from the north, cooler temperatures, and the potential for rain. Otherwise, temperatures will be much cooler today, as compared to yesterday, especially across the Big Country. For tonight, lows will be cooler than usual early April lows, especially across the Big Country, where lows in the 30s look likely.
Could see a few light snow showers over the higher terrain, but other than that, a warming and clear day across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle as yesterday's snow melts quickly. Looking back towards the west, the upper low along the coastline will travel south, increasing its energy over time.
Weak ridging continues to dominate the area through tomorrow. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s, both above normal.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today in the low 50s north to around 60 degrees in the south central Alleghenies.
/Updated at 1256 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020/ A very tranquil weather pattern is set up across Central Alabama this afternoon thanks to a broad low-level ridge currently centered over Tennessee and Kentucky. Broken mid to high level clouds will continue during the overnight hours with temps falling into the low to mid 50s.
1141 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the trough swinging north over the Northern Plains. The trough axis was moving through the Plains. With the clouds clearing as drier air moves in, highs will be warmer than yesterday. Tonight cloud cover will increase as a weak upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to the lack of CAA. Therefore highs will be warmer than today. Saturday night a weak upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area. The cloud cover and increasing dew points will cause lows to be warmer than tonight. At the start of the period, weak upper ridging extends over the central CONUS with an upper trough just off the west coast.
1137 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 A high pressure ridge will continue to cross east across the region through tonight.
The main trough axis of the longwave trough has shifted east over the Plains.
Areas of rain showers and drizzle will continue to spread across the CWA this afternoon and into tonight as a cold front currently over Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas exits. Strong cold front continued to make its way southeastward across Southeast Oklahoma. Within the freezing air. some light freezing drizzle was also possible across mainly western/northern Osage co. the strong cold front will continue to make progress across the CWA and exit this evening. The light freezing drizzle may remain possible for the next couple of hours across Osage co. though temps are forecast to warm just barely back freezing this afternoon. have adjusted hourly pops/wx/temp/dewpoint grids behind the cold front based on the mentioned above and latest ingested observations.
The upper trough which brought our wintry weather and cold air will lift north into Canada (Manitoba) this weekend.
341 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Dry conditions will persist most of tonight under the influence of high pressure. Low temperatures tonight will drop back into the 40s, with high temperatures on Saturday ranging from the upper 40s to around 50 across southwest Lower Michigan to the lower 60s across far northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Cooler temperatures will be felt from combination of cloud cover and limited CAA arriving behind the system.
353 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain in control across the region through tonight.
This system was being pushed to the SW by blocking extending from northern North America to the north Atlantic. Daily high temperatures continued on a moderation trend, now ranging in the low/mid 70s. The above noted showers should for the most part dissipate this evening as they move into a drier environment in the lower atmosphere.
246 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Low clouds behind the morning cold front continue to stick around the forecast area this afternoon. This will lead to temperatures near or below freezing for much of the southern Panhandle and northern South and Rolling Plains once again.
A cold front will approach later tonight and bring increased cloudiness and chance for passing rain showers beginning near sunrise.
Convection has formed over the Rio Grande plains into the Hill Country as the exit region of the upper level jet moving out of northern Mexico approaches along with lift associated with the cold front advancing south through the Hill Country. Hi-res models continue show storms will move southeast toward the coastal plains this evening as the cold front continues to plunge south. Warm air advection will increase above the shallow cold air mass on Saturday as another in a series of short wave troughs in the active subtropical flow moves across the region on Saturday. The short wave trough will move northeast of the area Saturday night, but low level warm air advection above the shallow cold air should lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday night.
North/northeasterly winds will persist on the east side of the ridge axis, and this airmass has already provided the forecast area with a good shot of colder air. Expect temperatures to drop to near of below freezing again across northern and portions of western and central Oklahoma by sunrise. We are still near or earlier than the average day of last freeze across the area that will be near or below freezing, so will again not issue any kind of freezing temperature headlines, but will mention the potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and other avenues.
Will see varying amounts of upper-level cloud cover streaming across the region over the top of the weak upper ridge axis centered over the north- central/northwest Gulf of Mexico.
127 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Dry weather is be expected through tomorrow under high pressure.
Strong cold front continued to make its way southeastward across Southeast Oklahoma. Within the freezing air. some light freezing drizzle was also possible across mainly western/northern Osage co. the strong cold front will continue to make progress across the CWA and exit this evening. The light freezing drizzle may remain possible for the next couple of hours across Osage co. though temps are forecast to warm just barely back freezing this afternoon. have adjusted hourly pops/wx/temp/dewpoint grids behind the cold front based on the mentioned above and latest ingested observations.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): The main focus will be on a cold front moving through the area tonight. The ingredients will be in place for an increased risk of severe weather with the front, a slight risk, though the cold air behind the front will settle things down pretty quickly, with cooler, cloudier, and showery conditions behind the front on Saturday.
Gusty winds will decrease early this evening as a ridge of high pressure at the surface builds into western Kansas. however given an increase in clouds late tonight the low temperatures early Saturday morning is expected to be in the 20s. The cold dome of high pressure will slide east of the area and warmer temperatures will start to return.
1111 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Dry weather is be expected through tomorrow under high pressure.
The wave should lift to the northeast through the day, with chances for rain dropping off until a cold front approaches the region from the west tomorrow. A minor perturbation in the subtropical stream is helping to initiate light warm advection rainfall roughly along/south of the Highway 84 corridor early this morning. Otherwise, the weather pattern continues to be influenced by ridging centered over the ArkLaMiss region with anticyclonic flow helping to limit any rain chances.
1038 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the northern high Plains, with winds decreasing across the area. Upper level analysis has trough moving east of the area now, with near zonal flow from the Pacific NW through the Rockies.
218 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 High pressure settles over the region tonight. With clear skies, fresh snow, and lower heights in the upper trough, temperatures will plummet again. Because of the drier air moving in on the high, models are not picking up on any fog potential. Above freezing temps and some snow melt may cause some shallow fog to develop toward the end of the short term.
200 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 A high pressure ridge will continue to cross east across the region through tonight.
223 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 A strong cold front continues to march across the forecast area today. The front was faster and more aggressive into our area, and the freezing line even penetrated into Osage and Pawnee counties where some light icing on elevated surfaces caused the anemometers on the Mesonet stations at Burbank and Foraker to drop out. Temps are sitting right at freezing there now and are not expected to change much thru tonight and the drizzle should be ending there as well so no headlines are planned at this time.
1157 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Ridge axis overhead supporting deep subsidence through the full depth of the column and high pressure at the surface. Quiet weather today into Saturday afternoon as an amplified, yet narrow, ridge resides overhead. This ridge is sandwiched in between a strong trough axis swinging through the central Plains and a stacked low pressure system off the east coast.
A cold front to our west will move closer to our area and even dip into the Delta region by tomorrow.
Satellite this morning showed an upper low in the Pacific 45N/139W and a developing upper trough in the northern Gulf of Alaska. The trough will come down the BC coast today and tonight, then close off a low near 45/130 Saturday.
Look for the cold front and associated wintry mixed precipitation to be east of the area by later this evening.
Upper level ridging continues this afternoon and is expected to persist over the northern Gulf coast through the day tomorrow as well. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough is progressing over the north-central CONUS and will make its way over the Great Lakes through tomorrow. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate over the region this afternoon. By tomorrow afternoon, the high pressure will begin to break down and move east as a cold front approaches the southeastern CONUS from the west. An increase in cloud cover is expected later tomorrow afternoon with the advancement of a cold front. Highs tomorrow are then expected to be slightly warmer, in the lower to mid 80s.
MVFR ceilings are holding over much of the region although there will be periodic breaks in the lower cloud cover to VFR at times. The cold front, over the northern Hill Country early this afternoon, will continue to move southward and reach the COT area around 01Z, LRD/VCT around 03Z, ALI/CRP around 05Z and 07Z respectively. Satellite imagery shows a mid level short wave trough moving out of the Brush Country into the south Texas coastal plains at this time. High moisture is in place across the region with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Another feature of concern is the cold air mass behind the cold front pushing through central Texas at this time.
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 The mid-level trough axis pivoted northeast of the CWA today with an advancing Canadian high pressure diving into the Central Plains to help push the system that brought freezing rain and sleet to the area earlier today east of the area.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the day ahead of a slow moving cold front. Today Through Saturday Night An upper ridge continues over the middle of the country with an upper low moving into the northwestern U. The upper ridge will move east today and the upper low will filter into the Plains. The upper low will slowly progress east through Saturday. The cold front in eastern Oklahoma will be slowly moving east today and Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s and mid 40s to upper 50s Saturday night.
202 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 A cooler and breezy end to the week with early sunshine giving way to a mostly cloudy sky through the day. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today in the low 50s north to around 60 degrees in the south central Alleghenies.
142 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Deep upper trough will dig into the western CONUS, supporting downstream riding and warming trend locally as mean SW flow develops. Deep layer ridging will ensue tonight with staunch pressure falls per lee side troughing. Much warmer conds expected tomorrow, although snow pack will continue to hamper T rises.
148 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 High pressure with dry weather Friday and Saturday.
254 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Ridging aloft will begin to edge eastward during the short term as a weak cold front approaches from the west. Rain chances enter our SW Indiana and west central KY counties beginning later Saturday afternoon just ahead of the cold front, which is expected to enter our area by sunset Saturday.
Tonight, model guidance indicates a secondary surge of cooler air across the area which may lead to another period of MVFR ceilings through tomorrow morning. High temperatures will be nearly 25 degrees cooler today than yesterday. Temperatures across the northwestern southern Texas Panhandle will drop to near the freezing mark.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the midwest, with low along the Alberta/British Colombia border. On Saturday, a short wave rotating around aforementioned upper low zips through northern portions of the area. As for timing, have broadbrushed in the low pops as timing remains tricky given the speed of this compact system.
/issued 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/ Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure now centered over the sern CONUS and the accumulation of 12-18 hours of srly low-level flow has resulted in dewpoints about 10 degrees higher than this time yesterday. Meanwhile a cold front is noted stretching from the wrn Great Lakes through the cntl/srn Plains to nwrn TX. Water vapor imagery continues to show some ridging in place over the Atchafalaya Basin while a more swrly flow aloft is finally beginning to develop over much of the region.
Temperatures are running below normal today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Some convective cumulus cloud cover has developed over the higher terrain of the central mountains given ample surface heating today, and a few high clouds have begun drifting in from the west. As prior discussions have mentioned, a shallow wave will pass through the western slope overnight tonight into Saturday morning around the base of the broad western trough. This wave will result in increased cloud cover and a very slight chance for some precipitation in the form of light snow in the higher terrain of the central and southern mountains. Southwesterly flow aloft will result in a warm air advection regime and thus warmer surface temperatures during the day.
134 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 most pleasant ridging holding strong from the Gulf of Mexico north into Ontario.
Satellite imagery shows a mid level short wave trough moving out of the Brush Country into the south Texas coastal plains at this time. High moisture is in place across the region with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Another feature of concern is the cold air mass behind the cold front pushing through central Texas at this time. MVFR conditions will continue across the majority of the of the sites this morning before the arrival of the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this cold front affecting all sites.
217 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Short Term (Tonight and Saturday): A mature cyclone located off the New England coast will move into the open Atlantic, as mid-level ridging remains prominent across the southern Gulf of Mexico and Greater Antilles. Weak surface ridging will prevail from the lower Great Lakes through Florida. The high resolution guidance suggests a slight uptick in low-level moisture given the prevailing easterly fetch and even want to spit out a few afternoon showers along the inland advancing Atlantic sea breeze.
Expect a short lull to occur until the overnight hours when showers ahead of a cold front begin to spread into Northeast Arkansas.
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020 Low level warm air advection/isentropic upglide in the wake of a vigorous cold front is resulting in drizzle and freezing drizzle with a few pockets of light rain/freezing rain at times early this morning. Light northeast winds will become more easterly toward Saturday morning with at or below freezing temperatures likely for much of the area once again.
Forecast Summary: Wintry precipitation through the morning is the primary forecast concern, with areas of freezing rain, sleet and snow likely. Temperatures warming above freezing this afternoon will limit ice impacts.
With warmer air in the valleys, the rain may linger a bit longer than the ridge tops. Look for the cold front and associated wintry mixed precipitation to be east of the area by later this evening.