Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BTL A trough of low pressure in the mid to lower levels has resulted in cloud cover across much of the Interior West Side this morning. Mostly MVFR and VFR ceilings are accompanying a weak cold front that will move through the forecast area today. The lowest ceilings are focused at the coast and in the Umpqua Basin. A weak cold front will move through the waters this morning, bringing a chance of light showers. By this afternoon, a thermal trough will develop, bringing stronger north winds and steep wind driven seas south of gold beach.
Have trimmed back PoPs a little this morning across the western Florida panhandle counties per the latest HRRR runs and CAM guidance and edged the higher PoPs to the afternoon. WV imagery this morning depicts an area of +PV over the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a weaker area over the north- central/northeast Gulf.
VFR conditions will prevail today even as a 500mb low/inverted trough across eastern Mexico continues to bring some moisture towards the lower Texas coast. /issued 439 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): A weak 500mb low/inverted trough across eastern Mexico this morning will bring some low to mid level moisture towards northeast Mexico and the CWA today.
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 RAP40 analysis shows the Bermuda Ridge axis centered NE of the Bahama Bank, extending west acrs the panhandle. Dewpoint depressions btwn 5-7C thru both the H100-H70 and H85-H50 lyrs show some promise for diurnal shra/tsra formation over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region, but position of the ridge axis is generating more of a Srly deep lyr flow that is preventing the moisture from advecting onshore. Mid lvl thermal ridge in place with H70 temps arnd 10C. Position of the ridge axis will maintain a light S/SE flow thru the H100-H70 lyr that will promote a quick inland progression of the east coast sea breeze, especially across the Treasure Coast.
/Issued 448 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ A slowly encroaching cold front will help to hold high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday while still being able to reach into the 90s to 105. By Wednesday, the ridge returns in full force and that means it will be another sweltering day with high temperatures in the 101 to 109 range. With southwest winds, the high temperature at the base of Palo Duro Canyon could easily reach 110 with 115 not out of the question.
12Z upper air analysis depicts weak ridging currently across the area, temporarily capping the atmosphere. The upper level pattern will shift a little for the latter half of this week, as a series of waves crossing the northern CONUS lead to weak height falls over the Mid-Atlantic states and eventually a cold front moving into the region over the weekend.
Upper level low, or trough axis, that has been providing daily blow ups of convection, will stick around a while longer. In fact, latest computer model projections suggest that (instead of drifting off to the northeast, as previously forecast) this upper low/trough may stick around to some extent through most of the rest of the week.
/issued 310 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ Current water vapor satellite imagery depicts a weak upper level low over Northeastern Arkansas. This low is less organized than it once was as it continues to shift east. Closer to the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the Atlantic is resulting in southerly flow and warm overnight temperatures. Drier conditions will prevail as the day continues and the weak upper low continues to lift out of the area. There will be a lull in active weather on Wednesday as zonal flow aloft sets up and high pressure filters in at the surface.
431 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016 UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES REMAINED NEAR FREEZING LEADING TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARMER THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. FOR NOW SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOW STRATUS AND RAIN SOUTH OF THE BISMARCK AREA SO ELECTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 29/03Z. THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON.
837 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA.
925 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY, MOST LIKELY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING HAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO AID CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON.
949 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVELS BECOME MOIST. DRY WEATHER AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THINK HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO GOOD HEATING IN A DRY AIRMASS. THOUGH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY OVER THE PANHANDLES. THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AND ALSO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE LOCATED.
1013 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA TODAY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1102 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 REALLY WARM START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY.
1033 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COOLER AND THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH NO FROST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SW IOWA, WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A COLD FRONT NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT SO THAT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
741 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO VIRGINIA AND COLD FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY.
An 11z surface analysis depicted a trough running along the LA coast, through southern MS/AL, dropping southeast across the Florida Big Bend.
Main upper low was still sitting over the northern Plains into the upper MS valley with the next closed low out in the southern Rockies. Forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend as this low in the southwest slowly pushes eastward. Will see considerable height rises with upper level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler airmass, especially in the northern CWA. High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level jet impinging on the area as well.
WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IN WITH WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE TN RIVER.
1049 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/ COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BUT RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
625 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TREK EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER LOW WORKS TO THE EAST. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. OUR NEXT WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IT APPEARS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD TYING IT WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE BASICALLY A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHERE WE ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL W OF THE MS RIVER. AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID PLAINS SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRACK EWD AND THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE TOWARD THE SW. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD. AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON WED. AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING HELP DISSIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS.
1036 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL IN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE FILLING AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS.
1030 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 CURRENTLY - A NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DUE TO THE BACKGROUND LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS KEYS WATERS DUE TO A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE NICE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DESPITE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED THROUGH MS. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND DECREASES CLOUD COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING HELP DISSIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS.
750 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1009 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A WEAK LOWER- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDS OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (NEGATIVE TILTED) IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE DRY-LINE MOVES TO THE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A FRONT AND ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
618 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN.
1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 HYDRO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM MONTANA TO ARIZONA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO FOR NOT ONLY TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. TODAY IS THE LOWEST PROBABILITY DAY. AND MAINLY THE HIGHLANDS.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO FRIDAY.
1200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL IN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE FILLING AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS.
NEVERTHELESS SPAWNING A GUST FRONT WHICH BROUGHT 30-KNOT WIND GUSTS TO SMITH SHOAL AND THE GULF-SIDE FLATS AND BEACHES NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. AND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF SORTS IS POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west.
718 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GUARANTEE SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF WARM. 12Z KILN RAOB SAMPLED A VERY DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS YIELDING AMPLE SUNSHINE AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN CLASSIC OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN. AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MASSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE /CLOSED 582DM ANTICYCLONE OVER MICH/OHIO/ MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT DRAINAGE AREAS TO REALLY FALL OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT INTO THE LOW-MID 40S /CENTRAL OHIO/.
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWEST 7000 FT. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND RESULTING IN THE ONGOING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION YIELDING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL REMAIN BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EDGES NORTH.
730 PM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTH ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. IT WILL BECOME THE NEW CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE HAS KEPT THE AIR JUST WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM FORT COLLINS TO FORT MORGAN TO LONGMONT.
708 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
527 PM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TONIGHT AND NUDGE TOWARD SOUTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA INDICATE THE DRY LAYER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR WEST FA TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WESTERN FA TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLORADO 00Z/SUNDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FLOW AROUND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FUNNEL DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. AND TODAY HAS TAKEN THE CAKE FOR A WHOPPER TURNAROUND FROM LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S TO 2 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GUIDANCE MEAN.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TONIGHT AND NUDGE TOWARD SOUTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA INDICATE THE DRY LAYER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR WEST FA TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WESTERN FA TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLORADO 00Z/SUNDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
743 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
750 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO LITTLE MOVEMENT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUED TO SPREAD STORMS AND RAIN TO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE HOLDS IT BACK.
1004 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
725 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BUT ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT IS AIDING IN AN OVERALL DECREASING CLOUD COVER TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 331 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
Gosselin Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year.
929 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
935 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE STRONGEST JUST EAST OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIRLY SHARP INVERTED TROUGH FROM FAR SE CORNER OF ND NNE TO NEAR BDE WITH TIGHT BAROCLINIC RIBBON ON COLD SIDE OF TROUGH. ORGANIZING AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE OVER NE WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH FAVORED RAIN AREA ALONG AND WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH. SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN AT OR A TAD BELOW ZERO IN THE WARM SECTOR AND IF ANYTHING CAN FORM EAST OF THE TROUGH CANNOT RULE OUT T. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND NORTHWARD DRIFTING UPPER LOW SUNDAY AND WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CURRENT SURFACE BOUNDARY MORE RAIN ON TAP.
In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Like today, will see lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at all sites.
1251 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GUARANTEE SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF WARM.
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES WITH BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CAMDEN COUNTY AND NORTH FLORIDA AREAS. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND TONIGHT BUT SINCE THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT UPSTREAM CIRRUS OVER WESTERN WI TO FURTHER THIN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO BLOCKING RIDGE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE ON SUNDAY BUT ONCE AGAIN LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
Clouds continue to decrease across our region as deep layer ridging and a drier airmass return in the wake of the exiting trough to our east. Rain chances have ended and overnight lows will be in the lower 50s north, mid to upper 50s south.
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID-20S. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL NEAR KVCT. THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY WHILE A JET MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BUT FOR NOW KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MODELS DEPICTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
935 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of western OK this evening in association with upper low moving very slowly across the southern Rockies. The upper low in the Four Corners region continues to move very little, a trend that will persist until late tonight and into tomorrow.
938 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SLOWLY FROM THE 60S NOW DOWN INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO BUILD.
1044 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 935 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of western OK this evening in association with upper low moving very slowly across the southern Rockies. The upper low in the Four Corners region continues to move very little, a trend that will persist until late tonight and into tomorrow.
748 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING AIR OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.