Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm front that has organized along the northern Gulf coast will move inland today, bringing increasing Gulf moisture to the forecast area. High temperature still expected to top out in the low 70s. A cold front moves south over the Southeast from the Tennessee River in response. The warm flow off the Gulf will combine with subsidence from upper level high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico to bring temperatures in the mid 70s for Tuesday, well above seasonal norms.
1106 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma, and will continue to push southeast across the area this afernoon and evening.
This has allowed temperatures to warm a couple degrees warmer than expected this afternoon. The warm front south of the area will push east this evening ending rain chances across the southern counties this evening.
123 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected today under building high pressure. Rain returns tonight and Tuesday with a cold front. Given the incredible depth and magnitude of dry air present on the 12Z KPBZ sounding, and extent of low level high pressure, the arrival of precipitation tonight will likely be later than previously forecast. An associated warm front will lift northwards across the region tonight, with precipitation overspreading the area from the west late tonight/early Tuesday. Rain chances will continue through Tuesday with the passage of a cold front.
802 AM MST Mon Feb 17 2020 A cold front will move through the area this evening into early tonight. -Mottice Broad upper trof over North America will deepen briefly before being pushed east by ridge building across the west coast. Cold air will linger into midweek before ridge begins to bring warmer air back to the region. A more organized band is expected in the late afternoon and evening as the cold front drops south across the region. As the arctic high follows the cold front, chances of snow shift to the upslope areas of the southwest zones for Tuesday morning. Cold air lingers over eastern Montana as the high moves through the northern plains.
204 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 As of 1930Z, our latest cold front had made it roughly through half of the Lubbock Forecast Area, just beginning to enter Lubbock County. This initial wind shift is pretty shallow, as seen on soundings, but a deeper push of cold air will arrive early tomorrow morning, keeping highs much cooler tomorrow.
An upper disturbance embedded in a trough will continue to bring scattered snow showers today, mainly in the higher elevations. Models bring one last short wave trough in from western Canada today before clearing tonight.
MVFR to VFR ceilings will prevail this afternoon, with MVFR ceilings most likely behind a cold front that will move southeast across the area. /Issued 1106 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/ A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma, and will continue to push southeast across the area this afernoon and evening.
There is a small threat of seeder-feeder based on model soundings, which could favor the potential for freezing drizzle if it occurs.
Look for highs ranging from the mid/upper 30s(F) in west central Kansas to possibly the lower/mid 40s(F) further southeast.
Eventually, high pressure will begin to nose into the region tonight from the east. This deep layer ridging will maintain a protective influence over our area, with the storm track diverted well to our north. Warm temperatures will prevail with highs ranging from the lower 80s along the east coast to the upper 80s across the western interior. An amplifying mid-level trough will progress through the eastern CONUS early in the period.
At the surface, a quasistationary cold front remains draped in and east/west orientation north of I40 with deep moisture to accompany, hence persistent mid/high ceilings amidst light vrb/nly winds. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 52 62 44 53 / 10 70 80 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 48 61 42 51 / 0 50 80 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 61 50 60 40 51 / 0 60 80 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 43 59 40 48 / 0 40 80 60 30.
Though a cold front will eventually put an end to the fog threat Tuesday night, that won't be quick enough to stop us from seeing another night of LIFR tonight.
252 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Temperatures are warming quickly this afternoon, but drastic changes are in store as a cold front lurks to the north.
139 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2020 An Arctic airmass will arrive this evening as a cold front dives south through the area. As the Arctic high follows the cold front, chances of snow shift to the upslope areas of the southwest zones for Tuesday morning. Cold air lingers over eastern Montana as the high moves through the Northern Plains early this week.
Enjoy it, since it unfortunately will not last with the approaching trough and rain moving in later this evening. Models have the cold front holding on a bit longer on Tuesday compared to previous runs, so a bit more rain is in store for the south and southeast Tuesday afternoon. Kept in mention of thunderstorms possible for this evening through Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front.
Cloud cover may keep temps semi-warmer, esp the western 2/3 where stratus is expected to linger.
Adjusted forecast for improvement and raised the high temperatures slightly for the Brush Country today.
An area of low pressure off the Atlantic coast, will slowly lift northeast through the night. A weak frontal boundary extending west across forecast area from this low will slowly lift north across forecast area as well.
1224 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected today under building high pressure. Rain returns tonight and Tuesday with a cold front. Dry and seasonably warm weather is expected today as high pressure crosses the region under zonal flow aloft. Increasing warm/moist advection in advance of approaching low pressure will increase cloud cover through the day. An associated warm front will lift northwards across the region tonight, with precipitation overspreading the area from the west late tonight/early Tuesday. Rain chances will continue through Tuesday morning with the passage of a cold front.
1028 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 A low pressure system will approach the region today and a cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
250 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 High confidence and low impacts in the short term as another round of light snow or flurries precedes the arrival of the next arctic high pressure system tonight.
The attendant cold front will approach from the northwest early Tuesday morning, and then exit off to the southeast by Tuesday evening. The best chances of rainfall will be overnight, and then expect rain to taper off from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through the area. Winds will be out of the south/southwest overnight before beginning to veer to the northwest tomorrow morning and afternoon as the cold front moves through. Tuesday night high pressure will be building into the region from the northwest.
1201 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 A period of accumulating snow late tonight and early Tuesday will precede an area of low pressure moving northeast across the Great Lakes. A ridge of high pressure sliding east across the region this afternoon will provide abundant sunshine with light wind across CPA today before retreating into northern New England tonight. Snow may narrowly transition to a very short period of sleet/freezing rain before quickly going to rain in by midday Tuesday. Models show low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes into southern Ontario/Quebec, with the trailing cold front pushing southeast through CPA Tuesday PM.
Satellite imagery indicates a few breaks beginning to develop as of 18Z, but these will likely be short-lived as the low clouds redevelop by, or shortly after, sunset.
250 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 (Tonight and Tuesday) A cold front will begin to move across West Central Texas during the evening and overnight hours tonight. Rainfall totals look to be on the low side for this time period, however, at around a tenth of an inch or less.
Weak mean westerly flow in the low levels will allow for the development of a sea breeze today.
A cold front will move through the area beginning around 06Z that will shift the winds around from the northeast. No freezing precip is expected at this time. Even so the best chance of precip will not occur until the low-level winds turn se and ride up over the shallow cold air around or after 18Z/Wed. A secondary surge of cold shallow air is advertised on Thur which could briefly increase opportunity for low QPF/shallow moisture in frontal zone aloft? GFS/Canadian 85h-7h temps continue to be warmer than ECMWF and wintry precip potential continues to decrease.
256 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Mild temperatures today will give way to much cooler weather for the rest of the week in the wake of a passing cold front today. A band of low to mid level clouds still persists just behind the front with temps observed to be in the lower 50s under this cloud deck in NE OK with upper 50s to mid 70s everywhere else.
The snow could end as some light freezing drizzle or drizzle late tonight as mid level moisture exits the area.
Even Alturas saw some freezing fog this morning. An offshore long wave ridge is bringing northwest flow aloft over the Medford CWA. Low level easterly flow is now developing over the ridges as a thermal trough strengthens near the coast.
However, you can expect a cold front to cause a wind shift across the region. A cold front will approach KABI by the late afternoon resulting in winds becoming northwesterly and then northerly behind the frontal passage. /issued 354 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Let's enjoy one more day of unusually warm temperatures, before another cold front brings much colder temperatures. Then, another cold front late tonight will push into West Central Texas, from the north, and usher in another cold spell.
/issued 223 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The main event in this portion of the forecast will be the gradual passage of a weak cold front from north to south through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. Isolated showers will accompany the frontal passage Tuesday night, along with cooler temperatures.
The eastern extent of an upper level trough will move into the Tri-State area overnight. The cold front will continue to move south through the area overnight. Areas mainly along and west of Hwy 25 are where snow can be expected, with the highest amounts in East-Central Colorado. Zonal flow will set up over the Tri-State area on Tuesday with cooler temperatures expected. High temperatures will range from the mid-30s in Eastern Colorado to the low 40s in Northwestern Kansas and Southwestern Nebraska. The models are showing an upper-level zonal flow over the Central High Plains with a elongated (west to east) trough moving into the local area from the northwest.
Along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, clouds and sporadic light rain showers associated with a warm front have held temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Across the MO Bootheel, KY Purchase, and southern KY Pennyrile, filtered to full sunshine has broken out, allowing temperatures to reach the lower to middle 60s. Cloud coverage everywhere will increase later tonight as a cold front approaches from the north and west.
High pressure will maintain dry weather and mild conditions over the Central California Interior over the next several days.
Colder air will be allowed to ooze southward as this upper feature swings through and temperatures south of the high Plateaus will be cooling off for Tuesday. Amplified ridging over the Pacific Coast and Caribbean will keep the northern and central Rockies under neutral to below normal heights. Low level moisture will make a strong surge northward in the return/upslope flow behind the cold front.
After the low passes east, the associated cold frontal system will drop south into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, with more showers and a few storms.
Current thinking is the light to moderate snow that occurred across western Sheridan today could in part be attributable to enhanced upslope across the Pine Ridge that fell along the ridge and a bit onto the lee-side.
That will be the major weather story this short-term period ahead of an ejecting cold front. Tomorrow and tomorrow night, look for the widespread PoP theme to continue as the 850mb Theta-E boundary remains draped across the region, and the cold front makes its push south. Look for cooler temps (mid 50s) in our northern zones, to the mid 70s in our southern zones.
Rainfall will eventually become focused along and just behind a surface cold front, which will pass through the Midsouth on Tuesday.
Cloud cover may keep temps semi-warmer, esp the western 2/3 where stratus is expected to linger. Mainly VFR with local MVFR CIGS then expected through early Tuesday morning, but a cold front will bring a push of MVFR/IFR CIGS during the day Tuesday along with some -SHSN spreading north to south.
Due to the front we saw a sharp temperature divide this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from the low 30s near the NE/SD border to the lower 60s along the NE/KS border. An upper level trough diving out of Alberta will bring another cold front to our doorstep by early tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps the higher resolution guidance in on to something?.
Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect for all areas since some travel impacts are likely areawide, even where the lower accumulations are forecast. This is a classic wet-bulb/evaporative cooling event this evening for srn Lwr MI, where incoming area of rain becomes mostly wet snow overhead as it falls into a dry air mass and cools the thermal profile below freezing. Sfc dew points are creeping up, but are still only in the lower to mid 20s.
The attendant cold front will approach from the northwest early Tuesday morning, and then exit off to the southeast Tuesday afternoon. The best chances of rainfall will be overnight, and then expect rain to taper off from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon as the cold front moves through the area. Expect winds to remain out of the south/southwest overnight before beginning to veer to the northwest tomorrow morning and afternoon as the cold front moves through. Tuesday night high pressure will be building into the region from the northwest.
Looks like a rainy Tuesday as the cold front crosses the area.
809 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Rain, possibly mixed with snow north of I-80, is expected to return tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front.
519 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 High confidence and low impacts in the short term as another round of light snow or flurries precedes the arrival of the next arctic high pressure system tonight.
910 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Rain, possibly mixed with snow north of I-80, is expected to return tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front.
516 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 00Z TAF issuance VFR will prevail through at least this evening ahead of a strong cold front. /issued 252 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/ Temperatures are warming quickly this afternoon, but drastic changes are in store as a cold front lurks to the north.
A cold front with the former wave was working its way southeast across central portions of Kansas at 20Z with modest southerly winds bringing dewpoints into the middle 40s and temps into the lower to middle 60s ahead of it. The cold front reaches the Red River area late tonight as the next upper wave approaches. Skies should steadily clear through the day Tuesday as the upper wave exits but north winds in the Canadian airmass keep highs in the lower to middle 40s.
A backdoor cold front will begin moving through the region from the northeast overnight, and keep cold air in place for the next couple of days. Southerly progress of the cold front into the CWA remains uncertain, but current model runs favor the front reaching MT/WY border.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies for the latter part of the work week. This ridge should allow for clear skies at night which in turn will allow snow covered valleys to cool off dramatically.
A cold front will bring another round of snow to parts of north- central and central Montana tonight into Tuesday. Colder temperatures can be expected through mid-week for much of the region behind the cold front. Weak convective snow showers continue to develop over much of the region this afternoon, as the cold front tracks through the area and colder air move in aloft today.
527 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 A cold front has moved through all three terminals and VFR are conditions are expected through the evening hours. /issued 204 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/ As of 1930Z, our latest cold front had made it roughly through half of the Lubbock Forecast Area, just beginning to enter Lubbock County. This initial wind shift is pretty shallow, as seen on soundings, but a deeper push of cold air will arrive early tomorrow morning, keeping highs much cooler tomorrow.
508 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Damp and foggy conditions will persist across central Illinois through this evening before a cold front passes and brings breezy and cooler weather late tonight into Tuesday. 1009mb low analyzed over western Iowa will track into the Great Lakes tonight, dragging a cold front through central Illinois after midnight.
North to Northeast winds along the NW Fl coast will advect some cooler swd north of the Cape and along I-4 into the overnight period. Warmer temps are expected Tue afternoon to the mid 80s across the interior and lower 80s closer to the coast. S/SE winds will increase to 10-15 knots with flow around the Atlc ridge.
551 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 /00Z TAFS/ A cold front was moving south across the Big Country early this evening. /issued 250 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/ (Tonight and Tuesday) A cold front will begin to move across West Central Texas during the evening and overnight hours tonight. Rainfall totals look to be on the low side for this time period, however, at around a tenth of an inch or less.
High confidence and low impacts in the short term as another round of light snow or flurries precedes the arrival of the next arctic high pressure system tonight.
618 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Rain, possibly mixed with snow north of I 80, is expected to return tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front.
North winds will increase with the arrival of a cold front. /Issued 256 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020/ Mild temperatures today will give way to much cooler weather for the rest of the week in the wake of a passing cold front today. A band of low to mid level clouds still persists just behind the front with temps observed to be in the lower 50s under this cloud deck in NE OK with upper 50s to mid 70s everywhere else.
Offshore flow will develop over the region today brining slightly warmer afternoon temperatures and cooler overnight conditions. Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with many locations running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Highs will likely top out in the lower 70s inland and 60s closer to the coast. Did have to do a minor update to max temps today and bumped few locations warmer (mainly interior valleys). the dry offshore flow will continue to dry out the lower levels limiting fog potential.
611 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Damp and foggy conditions will persist across central Illinois through this evening before a cold front passes and brings breezy and cooler weather late tonight into Tuesday. Visibility should begin to improve with passage of a trailing cold front late this evening and overnight. 1009mb low analyzed over western Iowa will track into the Great Lakes tonight, dragging a cold front through central Illinois after midnight.
The trend has been for a slowing of the onset of accumulating precip in the high res models, especially to the north and east. Still may see a transition to a mix/rain for far southern areas as warmer air tries to lift north. Given the marginal thermal profiles, rain could mix in at times under lighter rates or where temps are a bit warmer, such as river valleys. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler and breezy with highs in the teens/20s. The strongest surge of low level cold advection will arrive Tuesday afternoon as a secondary upper trough skirts the northern Great Lakes.
853 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 A cold front will move across the Mid Atlantic Tuesday evening.
307 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Damp and foggy conditions will persist across central Illinois through this evening before a cold front passes and brings breezy and cooler weather late tonight into Tuesday. 1009mb low analyzed over western Iowa will track into the Great Lakes tonight, dragging a cold front through central Illinois after midnight.
High pressure will continue building over the area through mid- week.
Cold front will edge south through late afternoon and evening ahead of some gusty N winds and MVFR ceilings.
At this point it seems the center of the high will be to our west so we will not be completely calm. Wednesday during the day will remain cold with the high still over the area and even with plenty of afternoon sun temps will stay near the zero mark.
WAA continues to filter in ahead of an approaching cold front. Latest surface analysis places a 1009mb low pressure system over near Chicago with a cold front extending southwest through Saint Louis and back through the ArkLaTex. Rainfall will eventually become focused along and just behind a surface cold front, which will pass through the Midsouth on Tuesday. A positive- tilted northern branch trof over the Rockies will drop into the southern plains on Height falls from this feature will aid development of showers along the lower MS River valley and gulf coast.
Along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, clouds and sporadic light rain showers associated with a warm front have held temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Across the MO Bootheel, KY Purchase, and southern KY Pennyrile, filtered to full sunshine has broken out, allowing temperatures to reach the lower to middle 60s. Cloud coverage everywhere will increase later tonight as a cold front approaches from the north and west. Lows Wednesday morning will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, and daytime highs will return to seasonable values in the lower to middle 40s.
Due to the front we saw a sharp temperature divide this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from the low 30s near the NE/SD border to the lower 60s along the NE/KS border. An upper level trough diving out of Alberta will bring another cold front to our doorstep by early tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps the higher resolution guidance in on to something?. Widespread light snow is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday from the High Plains of Colorado into central Nebraska, as the cold front sags south and favorable isentropic lift sets up. This should bring 2 to 5 inches of snow to the High Plains and Sand Hills and impact travel along Interstate 80 in central and western Nebraska.
Wind gusts of 30-35 mph have been reported recently in middle Tennessee and extreme southern Kentucky as low pressure over Iowa lifts a warm front northward across the Commonwealth. The attendant cold front will approach from the northwest early Tuesday morning, and then exit off to the southeast Tuesday afternoon. The best chances of rainfall will be overnight, and then expect rain to taper off from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon as the cold front moves through the area. Expect winds to remain out of the south/southwest overnight before beginning to veer to the northwest tomorrow morning and afternoon as the cold front moves through. Tuesday night high pressure will be building into the region from the northwest. Cloud cover should linger into the afternoon hours Wednesday as we start scouring out the low-level moisture with dry air aloft.
However, not enough confidence either way to pull POPs and will continue the low POP forecast with maybe one to two tenths of an inch possible. High confidence and low impacts in the short term as another round of light snow or flurries precedes the arrival of the next arctic high pressure system tonight.