Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB. WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AT THIS TIME. AS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TODAY. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 215 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US.
Mid/upper lvl trough will make its way very slowly east toward the MS River and lower OH Valley regions through Thursday as the strong Omega blocking pattern that has been set up over the eastern third of the nation finally breaks down. The trailing cold front will reach move into southeast MO early Thursday, and then slowly cross the rest of the region Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. The highest precip chances appear to be along and just ahead of the front Wednesday night into Thursday. Highs are forecast to reach the lower 70s, but this assumes at least a few breaks in the clouds.
318 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016 Center of the upper low was located over eastern Nebraska with a lobe of energy rotating south and southeast out of western Nebraska into northwest and north central Kansas. With the upper trough forecast to move across northeast Kansas tonight, have maintained slight chances of showers. Tonight clouds may decrease with loss of heating, but expect clouds to move back in with the upper trough moving through. Most of the area should remain wrapped in clouds on the back side of the upper low as moisture advects across northeast and east central Kansas. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 60s far north to the lower 70s near central Kansas despite northwest winds and cool advection.
326 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands the rest of tonight into early Sunday morning even as low to mid level moisture increases across the lower Texas coast as a weak 500mb inverted trough across the western Gulf of Mexico moves westward. Precip chances for Sunday should largely end after sunset, with what remains of the inverted trough progged to be well inland.
256 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Water vapor imagery depicts a wave moving w within a minor 4h theta- e ridge axis. Otherwise the subtropical ridge will start to develop nwd today allowing for ely flow in the 7h-5h layer. Said ely flow will advect cooler 7h temps wwd signaling thickness cooling. Also with the subtropical ridge farther n the primary theta-e ridge axis will remain w-nw of the CWFA limiting convection, even in the mtns.
325 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure ridge well off to the east this morning as the next weather maker/storm system continues to move through the Upper Midwest. The generally stable airmass in place in the wake of the ridge will continue to erode the east and southeast propagation early, but outflow from the storms will move across the state this afternoon.
Conditional climatology of these 850 mb temperatures projects high temperatures into the lower to middle 90s. Dew points are expected to be in the lower 70s over most areas. The one exception will be areas along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau and perhaps just north of the plateau where slightly drier air will mix down this afternoon. The highest readings will be across west-central Missouri and portions of extreme southeastern Kansas where values will be in the 102-106 degree range. The dry weather will then continue into tonight with low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. The long wave and synoptic scale pattern will feature a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the region for the entire period.
Upper level ridge will lift further north into the central plains through the period, bringing more easterly flow aloft to the region.
with the higher chances along the far southern forecast area.
An upper level low will develop off the coast today and Monday with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The subtropical ridge remains intact across the Western North Atlantic. The increased coverage of showers and storms appears to be the result of freshening boundary layer breezes, excited by the gradient between the low level anticyclone and a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dewpoints are in the mid 70s.
317 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will build east into the Mid South today and remain dominant through much of the upcoming week. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints mainly in the lower 70s.
Dry conditions will prevail through this morning, but high pressure will drift farther east as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Strong warm advection will destabilize the environment ahead of approaching Plains cold front, providing good conditions for convective development on Sunday night and Monday.
204 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A weak upper air disturbance passes across the region overnight followed by high pressure for Sunday into early Monday. A slow moving cold front then approaches the area late Monday.
High pressure over the southern Rockies will shift to the east ahead of the next upper level trough settling into the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure to our north will keep most moisture to our south, although there is a small chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms over our eastern and southern counties in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will climb into the low 90s across most of the area.
655 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 An area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will move off the east coast by Monday. A cold front over the northern plains will cross the area late Monday or Monday evening.
SCT SHRA and TSRA continue to develop along coastal locales this morning, with ECP currently seeing the highest potential for activity. Afternoon highs will run in the low to mid 90s with heat indices slightly higher than yesterday, ranging from 99-105F.
Another cold front will approach from the west on Monday and will cross the region Monday night.
316 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure into Sunday night.
Primary weather concern for today will be the heat and humidity building into the area as upper-level ridging begins its takeover. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, the combination is anticipated to allow for heat indices to reach into the low to mid 100s, therefore prompting the issuance of a Heat Advisory. Models are indicating storm chances for northern MO tonight along a boundary, but with upper-level height rises forecast to occur, confidence in this scenario playing out is on the low side.
At the surface, low pressure was noted over southeastern North Dakota with a cold front running southwest of the low into the Nebraska panhandle and southeastern Wyoming. The before mentioned cold front will be forced south and west today, becoming oriented across Kansas, west northwest into Colorado, then north into southeastern Wyoming. Stalled surface boundary to the south will lift across the area as a warm front during the day. The combination of the surface and mid level wave should be enough for scattered thunderstorms although the ridge to the south will be expanding and pushing temps aloft which could limit the activity.
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Early this morning shows the main 500 mb short wave trough moving thru northern Minnesota with the main concentration of t-storms over MN lakes country slowly moving east. Next feature is a cold front and associated short wave dropping south into central Manitoba at 08z. High pressure on Monday will give the area a welcome dry day with a good deal of sunshine.
A weak upper level high is positioned to our east with weak southerly flow in the atmosphere. Monday, the upper level ridge will begin to become centered across the central plains. Increasing heights aloft with the building ridge will try to limit most convection as subsidence develops, but there should be enough moisture for some isolated to scattered showers or storms in the coastal plains.
625 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure into Sunday night.
The low level high pressure ridge off the Atlantic coast will be building west today, while the 500 mb ridge across the Southeast will expand northward and strengthen. Drier air has moved into the northern half of the area as current dewpoints there are in the lower to mid 60s, with lower 70s in the southern Valley. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer than yesterday under the building ridge.
Went towards the lower side of guidance highs as latest models may be underestimating the amount of low level moisture which would limit heating a bit.
313 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 An area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will move off the east coast by Monday. A cold front over the northern plains will cross the area late Monday or Monday evening.
/Issued 301 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ Summer will return with a vengeance this week as a large area of high pressure builds aloft across much of the central United States.
Upper and surface ridging from the Atlantic extending west across the northern peninsula and southeastern states will remain in place through Monday. Ample low level moisture combined with daytime heating will support diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms across the forecast area today and again on Monday, but some mid level dry air and subsidence from the upper ridge may hinder convective development some and will likely keep overall storm coverage in the scattered range (pops 30 to 50 percent) each day. Temperatures will remain above normal with overnight lows in the mid 70s over inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast with daytime highs climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and mid 90s inland with heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range likely over inland locations each afternoon.
304 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 The storm track will remain well north of the region for the foreseeable future as an upper level ridge builds overhead and intensifies during the upcoming week. The ridge will be centered just north of the region over Oklahoma and Kansas, which is likely the area that will see the hottest conditions over the next several days.
Today ridging will begin to build into much of the central US including into Montana. However with a weak low pressure system still lingering over western Montana and up into British Columbia, some weak energy will move across the area. With the ridge really beginning to assert itself, temperatures will be well into the 90s. The main ridge axis just to the east of the area, flow will still be able to tap into a little bit of moisture.
South of this boundary good mixing with southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph will push highs to near 100, while north of the boundary weaker mixing will keep temps slightly cooler and northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 mph.
A cold front will also drop southward across the international border region this afternoon and evening. Conditions should dry out nicely across the area tonight, as high pressure builds across the Northland.
South of this boundary good mixing with southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph will push highs to near 100, while north of the boundary weaker mixing will keep temps slightly cooler.
Troughing pattern along the West Coast will allow for southwesterly flow aloft to continue through this week. Winds across the region are responding to an increased pressure gradient as a broad low pressure system over southern British Columbia retrogrades southwestward into the Pacific Northwest. winds are beginning to back to the southwest accompanying the new trough axis alignment.
256 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 The PAH forecast area will be initially under slightly anti- cyclonic flow aloft in the short term, under the influence of an expansive mid/upper ridge over the southern CONUS. Dewpoints in the lower 70s ahead of a surface frontal boundary will be a contributing factor to instability, and a few tstms may become strong or severe, with damaging winds the main concern.
Afternoon highs will run in the low to mid 90s with heat indices slightly higher than yesterday, ranging from 99-105F.
139 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Cold front dissolves over the area tonight. High pressure into Sunday night. Trough aloft/cold front Monday night. Front near western flank of the forecast area should get one last push by upper level short wave trough axis, before dissolving near the Ohio River tonight. In the meantime, thunderstorms firing up along the ridges along eastern edges of the forecast area this afternoon were associated with a weaker vorticity max out ahead of the main short wave trough.
Also, the low level jet is maximized over this region, and is beginning to veer, which may allow the storms to maintain strength the next few hours. The high res model guidance shows these storms possibly forming into a bowing segment across north central KS. If the storm cluster can reach northeast KS it should weaken as the low level jet decreases, and becomes more focused on the backside. Temperatures will heat up ahead of a cold front moving southward through NE. High temperatures should range from mid 90s to the lower 100s. Dew points will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. The cold front is forecasted to reach far southeast NE in the early morning hours.
to the south a high pressure heat dome has formed over the Four Corners and Intermountain West. To the north a weak ridge runs into British Columbia and Yukon Territory. to the east zonal flow resides across Montana while to the west a large trough sets off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a portion of the trough moving inland over Washington. Tonight through Monday: trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will dive south forcing a ridge response over Montana. monsoonal moisture will get trapped in the axis of this ridge. As the ridge passes through northeast Montana a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms should pass with it but impacts should be minimal.
Continued cooling can be expected into Sunday as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast.
Fair and dry weather is expected to redevelop on Sunday, but will be short-lived as another cold front will move south from Canada Monday afternoon, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. The flow will generally remain south to southwesterly, and with lots of sunshine will see afternoon max temperatures reach the lower 80s.
A fairly typical summer pattern is expected with the forecast area on the western side of the Bermuda ridge. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices maxing out in the 100-105 range.
Both recent guidance analysis and water vapor imagery indicate an upper level trough moving eastward across the eastern CONUS.
As high pressure builds into the region today, expect drier air to filter into the west. Upper ridge across the plains starts to build early in the week leading to a warming trend.
1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Aviation Section Updated Upper level low currently centered over the Glacier/Waterton Park region will continue to fill while remaining nearly stationary through tonight with perhaps a slight elongation to the east along the MT/AB border. A closed but filling upper level low remains over far NW Montana this afternoon. This activity clears and temperatures trend much warmer on Monday with subsidence and dry air over the region.
105 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. An upper trough over the area will weaken today. The pattern indicates less thunderstorm coverage but with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, moderate instability expected. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico during much of the medium-range period. The models showed some troughing in the forecast area. The models indicated upper ridging early but troughing along the east coast by the middle of the week as the ridge shifts west. Some hint of a backdoor cold frontal passage midweek suggesting increased chance of thunderstorms during that period although GFS ensemble suggests near climatology or lower pops.
High pressure will bring a dry day with lower dew points. Temperatures will be warmer overnight as dew points increase with developing southwest low level flow. Cold front and mid level trough will approach Monday morning and cross east of the region by late monday night. A bit complicated for the severe potential Monday as an MCS may be dying as it moves toward the lower Ohio valley early Monday, and debris would likely dampen insolation and amount of low level instability for a time.
The best chance of thunderstorm development should take place along the higher terrain in the southeast portion of our forecast area.
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Energy from a Northern Intermountain region upper trough will weaken tonight through Sunday, with some of it being absorbed by an upper trough swinging southeast through Manitoba into the Great Lakes. A lee trough will strengthen some through this evening. A weak cold front will then progress southeastward into the Central Plains Sunday, stalling late Sunday into monday from southern Iowa southwestward into northwestern Kansas. Scattered storms should initiate near the lee trough axis by early this evening from far western Nebraska into northeast Colorado, with an eastward propagation overnight fed by a southerly 50 knot low- level jet. A low-level thermal ridge axis and mixing will intensify northeastward across southwest into north-central portions of Kansas Sunday ahead of the stalled front.
OK/AR centered mid tropospheric ridge strengthens in tandem with Northern and Canadian Plains low amplitude ridging. more likely to provide increasingly hot/humid/mid level capped environment until ridge weakens/flattens amid more progressive downstream and active upstream mid/upper flow pattern. High pressure was over the area with mostly clear skies and light winds at the start of the TAF period.
325 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Convection has cleared the CWA with high pressure building in at the surface. While an upper trof will deepen to the east, profiles become more stable thanks to a building ridge to the west.
That trough gives way to the broad upper ridge extending north from an expansive upper high that will cover much of CONUS.
500 mb heights will continue to rise today as a ridge over the Atlantic and a ridge over the Desert Southwest link up, placing a 595 decameter ridge axis over the area. This will replace the weakness in the ridge which has been present in recent days. Given the high PWATs and slow storm movement due to a slackening of mid-level flow, isolated heavy rainfall may be possible. Highs will be in the low 90s with heat index values around 100.
Mean layer ridge axis will extend across the local area today and then lift northward across south Georgia Monday. This pattern will bring a deeper but fairly light easterly steering flow and focus the highest daily rain chances along the I-75 corridor in the afternoon and evening when the sea breezes and outflows converge.
325 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather will continue today and tonight as the center of the upper ridge in New Mexico builds and expands east over Texas.
low precipitation chances will linger over northern portions of the area as weak cyclonic flow remains over the area while ridge starts to intensify to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level high intensifies over the southern plains with broad ridging over our area.
The dry conditions will continue through the short term period as upper level high pressure starts building over the region. Highs this afternoon should be a couple deg warmer than seen on Sat. though with the ridge continuing to expand over the region. should see temps a deg or two warmer.
350 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will keep high temperatures for coastal and valley areas slightly below average today. high pressure over the central and southern plains will strengthen and expand westward. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will maintain high temperatures today for coastal and valley areas slightly below average with near average high temperatures farther inland. High pressure over the central and southern plains will strengthen and expand westward this week. The low clouds and fog will clear to the coast by 18Z this morning.
On Sunday, guidance suggests a weak cold front will move through the CWA in the morning with moist upslope flow behind it by afternoon, which should assist in storm development over Colorado during the afternoon ultimately moving into western Kansas. Sunday night-Monday night: Cold front stalls to our south with easterly flow through these periods before front lifts back to the north Monday night (as warm front).
Rose Sun night and Mon an upr ridge wl be centered nr the OK, KS and Mo border region, with the center slowly shifting southwestward into Wed, when it is forecast to be ovr central OK. The upr ridge then wl be centered over nrn NM Fri and Sat with still enough mstr ovr the area for isold to sct showers/tstms ovr the mtns and high valleys, and isold storm ovr the sern plains. Upper level high pressure building over TX will push mid and upper level moisture from the S/SW into the region tomorrow afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon hours.
301 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Summer will return with a vengeance this week as a large area of high pressure builds aloft across much of the central United States.
Already, mid/upper level ridge has begun building across the region with WV imagery showing little evidence of persistent shear axis of the past several days. As the ridge continues to build over the southern CONUS, warming/drying aloft will make it increasingly difficult for convective development. It is in these areas where lapse rates should still support isolated development, but the rates will become progressively feeble with time as the influence of the upper ridging is felt further to the south and east. As stated earlier, max temps today in the mid 90s should be the norm, but bulding into the upper 90s over the northwest, closer to the ridge axis, looks likely Monday afternoon.
Ridging is beginning build across central sections of the country this morning, however the area remains on the edge of an upper low that is centered over deep South TX. Through early to mid week, an upper ridge will build across the central sections of the country which will serve to decrease pops and increase temperatures. The ridge is expected to be centered roughly over the Ozarks which is just enough removed from the northern gulf coast to allow the potential for isolated diurnal storms.
Tonight into Sunday, The higher res models suggest that the stronger convection will slide more to the se through MN along the CAPE gradient leaving lighter pcpn farther n that would move through wrn and cntrl Upper MI btwn 09z-15z and possibly linger over the east into the afternoon. The potential for any stronger storms is minimal as the higher MUCAPE values remain to the w and sw of the the area. That trough gives way to the broad upper ridge extending north from an expansive upper high that will cover much of CONUS.
OK/AR centered mid tropospheric ridge strengthens in tandem with Northern and Canadian Plains low amplitude ridging. more likely to provide increasingly hot/humid/mid level capped environment until ridge weakens/flattens amid more progressive downstream and active upstream mid/upper flow pattern. High pressure was over the area with mostly clear skies and light winds.