Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
636 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A broad area of low level stratus is visible on satellite imagery early this morning approaching the tri-cities behind the departing cold front. aided by yesterday cold front. the remainder of the forecast looks mostly dry as high pressure builds across the intermountain west with this ridge pushing subsequent systems primarily north of the local area.
The higher clouds are coming off thunderstorms over the plains states but this should have little affect on temperatures. VFR will continue through the period as high pressure shifts from the Great Lakes and OH Valley this morning into PA and the Appalachians by evening.
958 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 The subtropical ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains, extending east into the Mid-South today. We continue to monitor a weak cold front that will move into the area Saturday night, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Some of our coolest locations have already fallen below 60 degrees this morning with most of the Midsouth in the low to middle 60s. A 593dm ridge centered over Arkansas will keep us dry today and Saturday. Tomorrow night the ridge will sink south along the Gulf Coast. A weak cold front associated with a northern stream broad trough over the Great lakes into Missouri will approach northeastern Arkansas, southern Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
845 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions throughout the forecast with just increasing cirrus today. Broader mid- upper cloud cover arrives tonight keeping lows slightly warmer (mid- upper 50s). Saturday will be a transition day for Lower Michigan as the flattened upper ridge departs and confluence aloft results in strengthened troughing at the base of a central Canadian upper low.
914 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure to our north will keep sunshine and less humid air in the forecast through Saturday.
533 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Dry weather should continue through Saturday under high pressure.
Upper-level ridging remains over the Quad State today, though decreases in meridional extent. Dew points are expected to surge during the day tomorrow, approaching 70 just ahead of the cold front.
Yesterday's cold front is slowly moving south this morning out of our southern counties and is expected to move into the OK Panhandle this evening. The Tri-State area will remain under SW to WSW flow aloft as the upper trough continues across the Intermountain West today. At the surface, northerly winds behind the cold front will bring cooler temperatures from Canada to the region with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. as cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft over the Pacific Coast and Intermountain West are supplanted by an amplifying upper level ridge -- shunting the mid-latitude westerlies northward into the northern Rockies, Dakotas, and Upper Great Lakes.
410 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A broad area of low level stratus is visible on satellite imagery early this morning approaching the tri-cities behind the departing cold front. aided by yesterday cold front. the remainder of the forecast looks mostly dry as high pressure builds across the intermountain west with this ridge pushing subsequent systems primarily north of the local area.
Forecast Key Points: - Morning Storms Today - More Storms Tonight - Flash Flood Watch in Effect Today through Saturday Morning As of 09Z Friday morning, the mid-level ridge across the southern US continues to progress eastward with zonal flow overspreading the forecast area. As the mid-level trough translates east across the northern Plains Saturday, the 850 mb front will progress southeast, allowing drier weather to return by Saturday afternoon. A warming trend may ensue by midweek as a western US ridge amplifies and overspreads the central Plains.
Another dry and pleasant day is in store for the mid state today as the upper high to our west continues moving eastward. The high will slowly work southeast, but begin to weaken going into the weekend and a Midwest trough will try and sneak in some rain chances as early as Saturday afternoon in the far northern zones.
The high-res guidance like the HRRR is showing some redevelopment of convection over the Gulf as well.
1039 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through Saturday as high pressure will work across the Great Lakes.
Ridging at all levels passing over the region from west to east will provide dry weather into Saturday, with clear to partly cloudy skies. An upper level trough currently over the western CONUS will moves east and reach the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, with an associated surface cold front moving through the Midwest.
/issued 251 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ 07Z upper air analysis indicates a broadening, mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Great Plains as a channel of tropical moisture from the northeastern Pacific continues to stream into the CWA. The ridging is expected to expand westward as the day progresses, resulting in a slight increase in geopotential heights compared to yesterday. Sincavage Precipitation chances will greatly increase this weekend stemming from a possible cold front in the region.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Drier air will continue to filter into our region from the north today, in the wake of a weak cold front passage. An anomalously strong - and warm - ridge aloft is centered over the Southern Plains and driving subsident, northerly flow across the region. Also, the lowering humidity should offset the warm temperatures and limit heat index values to below 100 degrees for most areas this afternoon (yay!). Given the high pressure around the region and lingering surface moisture, some patchy light fog is possible early this morning and again late tonight into Saturday morning.
A broad upper level ridge remains over the region through the period, and associated subsidence effects will tend to limit convective development potential, and have gone with slight chance pops at most each day, aided by the weak frontal boundary and a weak sea breeze. Lows tonight range from around 70 well inland to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
1021 AM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Dry high pressure and below normal temperatures will continue across the region into the weekend.
Most of the area will see temps reaching the lower 90s, except along the Volusia coast where they are expected to stay in the upper 80s.
High temperatures are still on track for the low to mid 80s. There is an upper level ridge centered just to the west of the area across the ArkLaTex. There is some upper level moisture moving around the eastern periphery of this ridge. The ridge currently situated in the Southern Plains/Ozarks region will tend to weaken during the weekend. A more pronounced ridge is then expected to develop in the West CONUS while a downstream trough takes shape in the East.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the region to maintain dry conditions across the region through Saturday. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge to force Saturday high temperatures again into the mid 90s areawide with heat index values just shy of advisory criteria of around 105 degrees. Otherwise, overnight low temperatures to range from the low to mid 70s across the ArkLaTex.
One more day of below normal temperatures expected today as the trough officially moves east of the forecast area.
1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Scattered light showers are possible today west of I-57, but the heavier rainfall arrives overnight into Saturday as a cold front moves into the region from the west. Model soundings continue to suggest that the lower troposphere will be slow to saturate today. A 30 kt LLJ will veer into central Illinois ahead of the cold front, providing the needed low-level moisture, instability, and lift to support widespread showers with some embedded thunder. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across the region.
Southwest flow continues this afternoon as the aformentioned trough moves across to our north. High pressure begins building over the southwest CONUS tomorrow and will impede much convective activity as flow turns west-northwesterly. A large area of high pressure will remain centered to our west, over Nevada. To our south, plenty of moisture can be seen but flow around the high will deflect said moisture and keep it in southern portions of New Mexico and Arizona.
As of early this afternoon, surface observations and satellite imagery depicted a cold front stretched from the Flint Hills of east central Kansas to the north side of the KC Metro to south central Iowa. While a few scattered showers are expected this afternoon and evening, a more expansive area of convection is expected late tonight from a complex of thunderstorms originating from the High Plains/southern Kansas, generally moving eastward.
With low level dry air advection scouring out a goodly amount of the low level moisture that's been around for the past few days, low temperatures for the next couple of nights should dip into the 50s to perhaps around 60 degrees.
340 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 An upper ridge centered over the lower MS River Valley will dominate the forecast area through the short term.
A warm front will allow mid clouds (10-15 kft) to spread in tonight, with further increasing moisture tomorrow morning allowing clouds bases to drop below 10000 feet, and then nearing 5000 feet toward day's end with southerly winds around 10 knots. Broader mid- upper cloud cover arrives tonight keeping lows slightly warmer (mid- upper 50s). Saturday will be a transition day for Lower Michigan as the flattened upper ridge departs and confluence aloft results in strengthened troughing at the base of a central Canadian upper low.
Upper ridge will begin to break down into Saturday as broad mid level trough dives into the central Plains.
158 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure continues the cool, dry weather, with low humidity.
246 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A damp and foggy fall night looms ahead, with clearing skies and warmer temperatures for Saturday. A decaying low pressure system centered over western Iowa will continue to spin down this evening with easterly flow keeping low level moisture steadfast over southern Minnesota. A low stratocumulus deck lingers through the morning and should mix out in the afternoon, although at least partly cloudy skies will be common on the backside of the main cloud shield as convective temperatures are quickly reached with the onset of solar insolation within a regime of cooler temps/lower heights aloft.
1026 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Scattered light showers are possible today west of I-57, but the heavier rainfall arrives overnight into Saturday as a cold front moves into the region from the west. Model soundings continue to suggest that the lower troposphere will be slow to saturate today. A 30 kt LLJ will veer into central Illinois ahead of the cold front, providing the needed low-level moisture, instability, and lift to support widespread showers with some embedded thunder. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across the region.
The rest of this afternoon will continue to have the opportunity for isolated to scattered activity mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor given the combination of this outflow, the passage of a subtle inverted trough aloft and elevated moisture with PWATS of between 1. Saturday through Saturday night should trend drier across the region as subsidence increases and PWATS lower with building of a mid-level ridge from the Upper Gulf coast into east Texas.
159 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure is centered overhead today keeping conditions dry under mostly sunny skies.
/issued 958 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ The subtropical ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains, extending east into the Mid-South today. We continue to monitor a weak cold front that will move into the area Saturday night, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Some of our coolest locations have already fallen below 60 degrees this morning with most of the Midsouth in the low to middle 60s. A 593dm ridge centered over Arkansas will keep us dry today and Saturday. Tomorrow night the ridge will sink south along the Gulf Coast. A weak cold front associated with a northern stream broad trough over the Great lakes into Missouri will approach northeastern Arkansas, southern Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
Sfc obs across sern MT also suggest a localized area of low pressure in that area-- or at least a localized region of cyclonic flow--which is leading to locally higher low-to-midlevel SRH. Trof deepens to our east tomorrow as secondary mid/upper jet streak strengthens over the Upper Midwest.
1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A broad area of low level stratus is visible on satellite imagery early this morning approaching the tri-cities behind the departing cold front. aided by yesterday cold front. the remainder of the forecast looks mostly dry as high pressure builds across the intermountain west with this ridge pushing subsequent systems primarily north of the local area.
Some ares in the southwest, south cental could see lows drop into the lower 40s if skies completely clear.
357 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure to our north will keep sunshine and less humid air in the forecast through Saturday.
141 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure to our north will keep sunshine and less humid air in the forecast through Saturday.
220 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
442 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will continue dry weather through Saturday.
357 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will continue to build southeast tonight.
and Saturday High pressure was edging east through the Great Lakes early this morning, as low pressure and an associated cold front approached from the Northern Plains. Low pressure over eastern SD is expected to weaken and shift southeast during the day. Thickening cloud cover and showers will hold the temperatures down, with highs only reaching the lower to middle 60s west to the lower 70s east.
155 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Latest upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows an upper level trough over Montana and Wyoming. This corridor will like broaden through the afternoon as the stratus east of the front burns off and the warm front shifts east toward Scottsbluff. During this timeframe the upper level ridge to the south will build north to the west of the forecast area.
144 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through Saturday. as high pressure will work across the Great Lakes.
115 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
A weak cold front with Pacific air will move through Saturday, with some clearing expected across central and northcentral Wisconsin in the afternoon.
247 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A broad ridge remains in control of the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. This pattern will hold for another 24 hours before the ridge retreats to the west as a relatively strong September trough digs over the eastern CONUS.
The high amount of precipitable water in the area (widespread >1. With the high amount of moisture available, heavy rainfall and flooding conditions will be the main concern, with severe winds also possible with strong downdraft generation within these storms.
Due to increased cloud cover early in the day, expect highs only up into the mid/upper 70s(F) to possibly the lower 80s(F) Saturday afternoon.
1115 AM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Upper trough over the region is keeping showers and isolated thunderstorms going in parts of the west, central and south. The trough seems to pass around 03Z with the activity ending by 06Z.
Scattered showers and a stray rumble or two are possible for the next few hours, but then we should see relatively dry conditions, aside from some drizzle/mist out of the low cloud decks.
The only indication of clouds anywhere nearby is along the coast where the marine layer is gradually compressing as a result of the building upper level ridge over the Four Corners.
The persistent trough responsible for much of the recent rainfall we have seen is finally beginning to weaken and pull away. Some showers are still likely along and south of the trough over the Gulf waters, especially overnight and through the mid morning hours.
333 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 The lower clouds have been persistent today especially in the eastern portion of the forecast area. Some higher clouds are moving into the west and overtaking the lower clouds and some portions of the area are still not seeing the sun even if the lower clouds are breaking up. Most of the action will be closer to the cold front that moved through the area last night. Temperatures for tonight and tomorrow will continue to be a little cooler than normal with lows around 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A cold front will advance from the NW over the next 24 hours bringing chances for rain across northern AR by Saturday morning.
WV imagery this afternoon showing large scale pattern consisting of a deep trough extending into the northern Rockies associated with a deep upper low centered over central Canada. Meanwhile a cold front continues to push southward through the central Plains. This in part to an upper level high pressure ridge building into the central CONUS.
The region will be between an inverted trough over the coastal waters and a broad ridge of high pressure to the north this period. Convergence associated with coastal trough will continue to produce scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms over southern portions of the forecast area on a northeast flow. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s over inland SE GA, to the middle 70s along the coast. For Saturday, the location of the inverted trough will produce more of a north northeast flow, leading to the best chance for precipitation closer to the NE FL coast.
146 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through Saturday. as high pressure will work across the Great Lakes.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley through the rest of the afternoon into the evening as the 500mb ridge across south Texas continues to provide subsidence across the area. 5 inch range as 500 mb high pressure reasserts itself. For the entire short term forecast period, well above normal temperatures are anticipated due to the proximity of the mid-level ridge.
A trough was moving out of the area to the east and northwest flow will become westerly. High pressure will build to the south.
242 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 We are in the midst of another relatively hot and humid early September afternoon as West Texas resides beneath the western periphery of a broad subtropical ridge. The western extension of the upper ridge is expanding ever so slightly, causing a thinning plume of monsoon moisture to shift northwestward. Better rain/storm chances will return Saturday afternoon and beyond as a closed low sinking south-southeast from Manitoba into Ontario bends the monsoon moisture back southward while also giving a cold front to our north a nudge southward. The aforementioned convective activity should help to reinforce the cold front Saturday night. This should help to bring the cold front farther south during the night and prolong the threat for shower and thunderstorm activity.
159 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 80s this afternoon and expect highs will be just a couple of degree warmer. The upper level patter features a ridge centered to the west across the ArkLaTex. Broad ridging extends across a good portion of the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, an elongated area of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes southwards into the southern Appalachians. With the ridge, there is a strong subsidence inversion and do not expect any vertical development with the cu. Overnight lows will drop down into the low to mid 60s tonight under mostly clear skies.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500mb ridge across the south-central and southeast United States will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight through Sat night.
141 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure extending across the area will move off to the east tonight.
The higher clouds are coming off thunderstorms over the plains states but this should have little affect on temperatures. VFR conditions as high pressure shifts from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into PA and the Appalachians by tonight.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Mid level ridge axis centered right across the area early this afternoon as its surface reflection slowly pivots off to our east. Troughing stretching from western Hudson Bay into the northern Rockies, with weak surface cold front extending from northern Manitoba parent low south into the northern Plains. with most areas in the lower 70s. Details: Top-down saturation continues at a slow pace tonight out ahead of that approaching wave and cold front. with the low level dry environment remaining stubborn to yield. A nearly zonal flow aloft at the moment gives way to increasing troughing from the west.
Current thoughts on the stratus and fog is that the lowest conditions should erode through the evening from west to east, but without a real strong push of dry air some redevelopment and lowering will be likely overnight, especially east of Interstate 29 where MVFR will likely linger today into tonight, and will likely lower with some fog possible.
/Tonight through Friday/ Area of low pressure has been slowly moving into central Iowa this afternoon. The primary area of showers and isolated thunderstorms has moved east along with the exit of the stronger theta-e advection maximum and the low level jet axis. Watching this area for dense fog development as the inverted trough lingers and the wind remains light.
Given the cloud cover and dewpoints around 60, temps tonight will likely only get down into the low 60s most places. Drizzle and a few showers will hang on Saturday until the main trough and front move through west to east late morning into the afternoon. Clouds will be widespread again Saturday, so kept high temps in the low 70s. May even end up a bit cooler given thick enough cloud cover along with the drizzle/shower chances.
1247 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will continue dry weather through Saturday.
A mid level ridge is forecast to remain parked over the forecast area, and the resulting subsident flow aloft will maintain the drier airmass that is currently in place.
344 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure extending across the area will move off to the east tonight.
434 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through Saturday. as high pressure will work across the Great Lakes.
737 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will continue to build southeast tonight.
850mb temps are a few degrees warmer and expect highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
742 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
A weak cold front is making its way onshore into northern Oregon with a few clouds and no precipitation. Ridging will amplify a bit over the area through the weekend with a slight warming trend.
723 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure is centered overhead today keeping conditions dry under mostly sunny skies.
510 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
559 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.