Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UNTIL A STRONGER COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. A WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MAINLY AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE THE FLORIDA/CUBA REGION. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER-48 WILL AMPLIFY AS EX- TROPICAL SYSTEMS BECOME INGESTED INTO THE WESTERLIES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRI AFTERNOON. DRIER AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR FILTERING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP END THE PRECIP BY SAT EVENING. AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S SAT/SUN NIGHTS. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND SFC FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE NW AROUND 7-8KT.
and drop south with the cold front into northeast Oklahoma towards midnight.
734 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND SFC FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE NW AROUND 7-8KT.
320 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THAT IS CURRENTLY THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED UP IN THE ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT'S BEEN OVER THE STATE WILL ALSO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THOUGH THE AXIS WILL GET SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH INTO S FLORIDA AS A RESULTING BRINGING COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY. TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER S FLORIDA WITH CONTINUING DEEP AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
The cold front was located from Pittsburg county in Southeast Oklahoma to Franklin county in Northwest Arkansas. The cold front will continue to make its way through the region this morning with the greater thunderstorm chances shifting into far Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Behind the cold front. much cooler air combined with northerly winds will aid in afternoon temps staying in the 70s to lower 80s from north to south.
326 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ATWELL GUIDANCE MAINLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW FOR MIDWEEK.
355 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA.
319 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 3 am surface map showing cold front was roughly just west of I-57. The cold air advection will keep afternoon highs confined to the lower 70s in most areas. High temperatures will be in the 70s while the high is more directly overhead, then reach more into the lower 80s with more of a southeast flow once the ridge axis establishes itself. A cold front will cross the central Illinois terminals over the next few hours. ahead of the cold front. After the cold front passes.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM CHI TOWN SW ACROSS NORTHERN TX. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE EXPECTED QPF FIELDS ON THE LOW SIDE.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWARD TO THE LOW 80S SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR SUNDAY WITH LESS RAIN AND ADDITIONAL SUN.
A secondary push of cooler air was making its way south into southwest Kansas with a slight bump in winds from the north. This may be a bit ambitious, but there is certainly some merit to this prog as there is some better low level moisture across central/south central Nebraska that wrapped around the low. Temperatures today, with the fresh Canadian airmass in place, will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Will go with slightly cooler temps in the north where low morning clouds will likely delay the diurnal warmup.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKER CUT-OFF LOW AND SHIFTING IT FARTHER EASTWARD AWAY FROM ALABAMA. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO ALABAMA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
235 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/issued 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge has moved south, and is centered over nrn Mexico, courtesy of a trough pushing thru the Midwest. Trailing the upper trough is a cold front, which latest sfc obs/analysis has just entering the Texas Panhandle, w/3-4 mb/3-hr pressure rises behind. Latest buffer soundings bring the pre-frontal trough thru KMAF at around 10Z Saturday, w/the main front around 16Z. Cold front is forecast to stall somewhere in the lwr Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon, before retreating north a bit Saturday evening as sfc flow begins veering back to the ESE, w/convection tapering off after midnight. The upper ridge then returns, and remains over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into the extended. Rain chances will be confined to the NW zones, nearest the theta-e ridge axis to the NW.
UPPER LEVEL PATTER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE UPPER 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE AND THUS STAYING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS FCSTD.
MOST OF THE WINDS OBSERVATIONS ALONG US-1 BRIDGES ARE NEAR CALM. AS THE LOW EAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO MAXIMUMS IN THE HIGH 80S.
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME ONLY ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER DUE TO DRY LOWER LEVELS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH HIGH NEAR RIO GRANDE.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
328 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE FURTHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE MUCH MORE PROMINENT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S.
630 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY.
329 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 (Today and Tonight) Cooler temperatures and rain chances still look promising for the next 24 hours. A weak cold front, currently near a Lubbock to Wichita Falls line, will move south into the Concho valley before stalling this afternoon. Although surface cold air advection behind the front will be minimal, cloud cover and precipitation make cooler afternoon temperatures look likely today.
142 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY EVENING.
LATEST SATELLITE VAPORT IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWS THE CONVECTION FADING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL AID IN WARMER HIGHS AROUND 92-96 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH READINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
A cold front will approach the Ohio Valley today bringing isld-sct showers/storms along and just ahead of the front. This along with the frontal passage should result in a good gradient of temps ranging from the lower 50s over southern Indiana to lower 60s near the Lake Cumberland region. Temps will be noticeably different with highs in the low to mid 70s Sun afternoon.
226 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A cold front will continue to push southeast through the forecast area early this morning, clearing the southern reaches of the CWA by mid morning. That cold front is ushering in a much cooler and less humid airmass into the region. Even with clearing skies today, temperatures look to only warm into the low to mid 70s. 15 With Canadian high pressure moving east across the lower Great Lakes tonight, temperatures shouldn't have any trouble falling into the low 50s for most. An amplifying upper level pattern will keep surface ridging entrenched across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for much of the coming week, with cool and dry easterly to southeasterly surface flow expected through the week.
1144 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 UPPER TROF AND LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE CWA. MINS APPEAR THEY WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FROST FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN TYPICAL LOW-LYING AREAS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WITH FIRE WEATHER AS LEE TROFFING CAUSES AFTERNOON BREEZES TO INCREASE AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY AFTN WITH HIGHS FM 4 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES US ON SATURDAY WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO DISSOLVE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON PROVIDING ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG.
Weak high pressure is moving into the region today, promoting warmer and dry weather and some breezy afternoon/evening winds. The wind will also promote mixing and slightly warmer temperatures to north- central Idaho and western Montana for Sunday afternoon.
240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
311 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A surface cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the forecast area this morning. The high will produce a light northeast wind flow of cooler and drier air.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING ALMOST TEN DEGREES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
This afternoon and tonight: Mid-afternoon water vapor imagery and upper level analysis indicated a vigorous upper level trough propagating east across the northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was analyzed across northeastern Kansas. A stationary front extended east-northeast from the low into northern Missouri with a cold front extending southwest from the low into northwestern Oklahoma. Continued cooling of mid-level temperatures with the approaching trough axis should promote the potential for surface-based convection into at least early this evening. Mon-Fri: A more amplified upper level pattern is still expected to develop with a warming trend as an upper level ridge builds over the area late Mon into the midweek period.
253 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TX INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
303 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. BUT WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES.
206 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA.
545 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE STATE.
623 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
640 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE FURTHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE MUCH MORE PROMINENT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S.
133 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY INTO SUNDAY A SHALLOW RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SUNDAY.
559 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVG SLOWLY TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TX INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
125 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
248 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
136 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
500 MB RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS WITH A VERY DRY 700-300MB LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MEAN RH WITHIN THIS LAYER IS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH THE LOWER 10K FEET STILL EXHIBITING THE TYPICAL RH LEVELS OF 50 TO 80 PERCENT. TIME HEIGHT FORECAST INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LAYER OVER THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MIXES THROUGH THE LOWER LAYER QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL EVAPORATE QUICKLY.
WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOMINATE CONDITIONS TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE A TROF MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MIXING.
/ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS STILL CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AREAWIDE RESULTING FROM A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE. SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 80S.
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY HELP CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
440 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO QUEBEC. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. 925MB THERMAL TROF SITUATED THROUGH CWA BY DAYBREAK SUN. AROUND 10C COOLER/24 HOURS IN SERN CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES TO DISCUSS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH IS STILL POISED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH TODAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DUE TO MORE INSOLATION. AS LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST RIDGING WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE WHILE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SETTLE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO.
636 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA.
High pressure ridge will continue to build over the region this weekend with warming temperatures.
411 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT. WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AREA CLOSER TO CYCLONIC UPPER JET AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 00Z MOS HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S LOOK GOOD CONSIDERING CLEARING SKIES BUT NORTHERLY FLOW.
415 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE AVA REGION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
The upper level high pressure ridge which brought dry and warm weather today will continue to build over the weekend with more summer-like temperatures for the area.
245 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS PROMOTING ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MANY AREAS. A TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS NEXT INCOMING LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OVERHEAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL SPARK MOISTURE ADVECTION SOMEWHERE ALONG AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
705 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF 7PM MDT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE MINNESOTA AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN IS FOR THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BETTER WIND SHEAR WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA WILL SHARPEN UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS. HAVE TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL BE LACKING A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AND THERE WILL BE LINGERING HAZE IN PLACE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
902 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
921 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE CONVECTIVE LINE COMING OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
626 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA WILL SHARPEN UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS. HAVE TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL BE LACKING A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AND THERE WILL BE LINGERING HAZE IN PLACE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.
WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.