Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
619 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 12Z TAFS Dry air wrapping around the western side of an upper trof bisecting the country from the great lakes into the northern gulf will allow for only SCT fair weather cu development this afternoon. Also of note is a weak pre-frontal trof extending from sern LA to the adjacent Gulf waters off Vermilion/Atchafalaya Bays. Water vapor imagery/00z upper air analysis show troffing in place from ern Canada swwd through the n-cntl Gulf. The nrly flow behind the trof is maintaining dry conditions over much of the area, but regional 88Ds show off/on convection continuing to develop along the trof, mainly over the coastal waters to our east. best POPs remain across the sern zones in proximity to the low aloft.
657 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure building north of the Ohio Valley will keep generally dry and cool conditions over the region through the end of the week. This high will move off of the East Coast and then extend a ridge westward through the region to the Midwest.
Very warm and dry conditions are set to return by the end of the week into at least the first half of the weekend as ensembles have the next upper ridge pattern building across the Northern High Plains.
Looking ahead beyond tonight, ridge axis lifts northward and will push in slightly more dry air in the lower levels.
/issued 228 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020/ A large upper level high pressure area centered near the four corners region will move little the next seven days and will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Interaction between high pressure over southern Florida and a trough of low pressure to the north will continue to produce south- southwest winds over the gulf waters for the next couple of days.
High pressure will rebuild over the western United States Thursday through the weekend.
530 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the area for the next few days. 00z upper air analysis placed a strong ridge from the southwest U. Weak northwest flow prevailed locally, behind the mid level trof which extended from the eastern Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley. At the surface, 06z surface map placed an elongated 1018 mb ridge axis from Lake Superior southwest into northern MO. Northeast flow on the eastern side of the ridge resulted in seasonably cool and dry air across central IL. Tonight the ridge axis sinks south into the northern CWA and with clear skies, calm winds, and low dewpoint depressions, fog will be possible.
829 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with just scattered diurnal cumulus/strato-cu along shearing vort lobe digging into base of upper trough axis to the east. Overnight lows dip back into the low to mid 50s. The upper pattern evolution through the remainder of the short-term will partially be dictated by the expansive blocking anticyclone in the vicinity of the Four Corners region.
High pressure will continue over the area with dry conditions through the end of the week. Today Through Thursday Night An upper ridge is centered near the Four Corners region and will continue to provide northerly flow over the Plains. An upper trough over the eastern U. The ridge will remain stationary through Thursday and the pattern will remain the stagnant over Arkansas.
437 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 The area & should remain in a generally dry wx pattern being situated between an upper ridge to the west and trof to the east. H85 temps are forecast to gradually fall into the 16-20C range in the next couple days (from the prevailing 20-24C) which should somewhat moderate daytime highs, but we still went on the higher side or above fcst guidance considering the favorable heating conditions in place.
08Z water vapor imagery showed a strong upper level ridge centered over UT while an upper low was over the Gulf of Alaska. Surface observations showed a broad high pressure system ridging from the Upper Midwest into the central plains with relatively dryer air into the mid MO river valley. This along with 850MB temps holding steady suggests afternoon highs should be in the lower to middle 80s once again. There may be a few more mid and high clouds tonight over central KS that may keep overnight lows in the lower 60s. There is little change to the pattern expected by the models through the weekend as upper ridging remains centered near the four corners region.
The short-term, high resolution, models continue to indicate an upper ridge will be the dominate feature.
936 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 (Issued 936 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020) Another quiet day is expected under high pressure. DDV (Issued 255 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020) Today through Thursday: A ridge of high pressure oriented from the central Plains through the Great Lakes region will dominate today as the ridge slowly shifts east. Overall, soundings are dry and with the low level thermal trough retreating with the return flow, the CU potential looks reduced. With the high to the east on Thursday the return flow amps up a bit more with a bump in the 925/850 temps.
515 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through the second half of this week, then slide off the Mid Atlantic coast by this weekend.
We'll also have the chance of thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra, and a slight chance of thunder over the far eastern portion of the Kern County desert.
Very hot temperatures will continue this week, and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for the lower elevations of northern Arizona through Thursday. High pressure this morning looks to be centered over southern Nevada - southwestern Utah.
In its wake warm airmass, 30C at 925mb by 00Z near DVL, with clear skies due in part to subsidence and slightly rising 500mb heights will allow temps to climb into the low 90s in E ND to mid 80s in the MN lakes and trees.
Those higher and low clouds will dissipate this afternoon, yet more high clouds may develop along the incoming cold front discussed below. Cooler and drier air will arrive today as a cold front pushes inland. Highs will trend roughly 5 degrees cooler compared to yesterday for most of our area this afternoon. In addition, We'll see a breezy day ahead of the cold front east of the Cascades. It's key to point out that the smoke concentration will be on the lower side of the spectrum than what we've seen back in 2017 and 2018.
/Issued 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020/ Persistent northerly upper flow along with surface ridging conditions will ensure at least a few more days of below normal temperatures and low humidity. Nudged high temps today up just a bit over the NBM, and will continue to favor the cooler MAV/MET lows the next few nights with 50s likely across northwest AR.
608 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania the second half of this week, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast by the weekend.
620 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through the second half of this week, then slide off the Mid Atlantic coast by this weekend.
1057 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure building north of the Ohio Valley will keep generally dry and cool conditions over the region through the end of the week. This high will move off of the East Coast and then extend a ridge westward through the region to the Midwest.
A large dome of summertime high pressure was centered over the Great Basin this morning, as long wave troughing persisted across the eastern third of the conus. The Ozarks Region were under the inflection of these two waves, allowing for cooler than normal weather with less humidity than what typically August brings. A weak cutoff low will develop on Thursday over the lower Mississippi River Valley, helping to reaffirm the current positive PNA pattern.
553 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Cooler air will filter into the region today. High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions tonight and Thursday.
336 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a subtropical ridge over Utah early this morning.
Dry conditions and near normal temperatures will persist Thursday as high pressure remains in control.
302 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. Early morning fog will give way to plenty of sunshine and another pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps trending a few degrees warmer than today (Wednesday).
312 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the area for the next few days. High pressure at the surface extending from Missouri through Illinois into the eastern Great Lakes will produce clear skies through Thursday night. Under the center of the ridge axis winds should be light enough tonight for patchy fog to develop, generally north of I-72.
Meanwhile an upper level trough axis was overhead. Lows by daybreak will be in the low to mid 60s.
1046 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the area for the next few days. High pressure looks to provide sunny skies today with perhaps a few patches of thin diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. 00z upper air analysis placed a strong ridge from the southwest U. Weak northwest flow prevailed locally, behind the mid level trof which extended from the eastern Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley. At the surface, 06z surface map placed an elongated 1018 mb ridge axis from Lake Superior southwest into northern MO. Northeast flow on the eastern side of the ridge resulted in seasonably cool and dry air across central IL. Tonight the ridge axis sinks south into the northern CWA and with clear skies, calm winds, and low dewpoint depressions, fog will be possible.
245 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just west of the Four Corners, allowing for meridional flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As we progress into the weekend, long-range models are in agreement in drifting the ridge south to central AZ by 12Z Fri, then up to the Four Corners by 12Z Sun.
Some of the high res models are showing a pocket of convection developing across the Panhandle this afternoon that would move southward overnight. The short-term, high resolution, models continue to indicate an upper ridge will be the dominate feature.
This will act to pull in slightly warmer temperatures and moisture going into Thursday. Mostly quiet conditions stick around going into Thursday, though it will be a tad bit warmer and breezier as the pressure gradient tightens.
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure building in this afternoon clears the skies, with a cool, fall like weather expected tonight. Sunny skies last into tomorrow with the high slowly moving off to the east. Return flow on the backside of the high brings in warmer, more humid air as we head into the weekend. Cooler air aloft and warm lake temperatures has allowed for a few weak showers to struggle but as subsidence increases and peak heating passes, these showers will dissipate. High pressure in place keeps skies mostly clear and with dry air in place, it will feel like another fall day. While the center of high pressure will shift farther off the eastern seaboard, the system will continue to influence our area through the short-term period with the ridge axis extending to the W-NW across PA.
1259 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period as dry and stable high pressure continues to build across the region. Overnight lows dip back into the low to mid 50s. The upper pattern evolution through the remainder of the short-term will partially be dictated by the expansive blocking anticyclone in the vicinity of the Four Corners region.
252 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. Early morning fog will give way to plenty of sunshine and another pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps trending a few degrees warmer than today (Wednesday).
1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 08Z water vapor imagery showed a strong upper level ridge centered over UT while an upper low was over the Gulf of Alaska. Surface observations showed a broad high pressure system ridging from the Upper Midwest into the central plains with relatively dryer air into the mid MO river valley. This along with 850MB temps holding steady suggests afternoon highs should be in the lower to middle 80s once again. There may be a few more mid and high clouds tonight over central KS that may keep overnight lows in the lower 60s. There is little change to the pattern expected by the models through the weekend as upper ridging remains centered near the four corners region.
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday.
135 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Aviation -Dry pattern with a warming trend The upper trough currently over the GrtLks region lifts out by Thursday and the northwest flow aloft is replaced by a weak zonal flow.
Active weather pattern continues with cooler than normal temperature aloft as strong upper trough amplifies over the western Gulf region. An increasing southwest flow on the east side of the trough will produce more organized convection on Thursday as vertical speed shear increases.
The Mid-South will remain in a broad upper level trough through the early part of the weekend. Models are showing a weak upper level low pressure system developing within the upper trough.
PoPs are low given the lack of moisture present in the lower levels from continued dry air advection, but a shower or thunderstorm is not out of the realm of possibility. High temperatures Thursday will be a degree or two cooler than today across most of the region, with winds shifting again to be from the south in the afternoon. North Texas will remain between stronger ridging to the west and deeper troughing over the eastern CONUS resulting in modest northerly mid level flow.
Dry conditions are expected Thursday night with lows back in the lower to middle 70s.
At this point, kept precipitation chances on the low end, and fairly broadbrushed.
(This evening through Thursday) Widely scattered showers have persisted across western Oklahoma through early this afternoon, moving southward around the periphery of the upper ridge centered to our west. Models suggest this activity may be a little more widespread than this morning's, so poPs were raised into the low chance category for our far southwest counties.
A few showers have developed south of the boundary, with much of eastern Kentucky experiencing a dry, and somewhat cooler afternoon.
Wx maps showed a mid/upper level trough axis over the area, and this feature will hang around through the day. On the east side of the trough axis, a low level boundary was located southeast of our area, with a sloped frontal surface (850mb front) up across the Mid State. Temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
A high amplitude pattern at the beginning of the period will be defined by a large ridge over the southwest US and trough over the east CONUS. The trough will be across our area, with a low developing over the Gulf Coast states, gradually drifting north with time.
Weak low pressure over AL along a nearly stationary frontal boundary just south of southeast TN and extending into western North Carolina seems to be a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning.
These gusty winds are expected to taper off this evening, as diurnal mixing ceases and the high pressure moves further away from the region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight primarily in the Arrowhead region, as the low approaches. Upper level flow tomorrow will transition into ridging, with temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 80s for most.
Expect mainly sunny conditions with highs in the low 80s this afternoon, then warming into the middle 80s for Thursday. This should support temperatures falling off into the low to mid 50s outside the more urban areas.
337 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. Early morning fog will give way to plenty of sunshine and another pleasant and comfortable afternoon with max temps trending a few degrees warmer than today (Wednesday).
Surface analysis showing high pressure nosing into the area in the wake of the aforementioned frontal passage. Aloft, a positive tilted mid/upper level trof lays over the forecast area wedged between the subtropical high to the east, and an expansive southwest CONUS anticyclone to the west. Trof progged to evolve into a cutoff low across lower Mississippi valley Thursday, then drift slowly northeast through the remainder of the week. A weak trof will then persist, gradually expending westward as perturbations drop down from the plains.
Do see some cirrus aligned along upper level trof advancing across central Louisiana. /issued 619 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020/ 12Z TAFS Dry air wrapping around the western side of an upper trof bisecting the country from the great lakes into the northern gulf will allow for only SCT fair weather cu development this afternoon. Also of note is a weak pre-frontal trof extending from sern LA to the adjacent Gulf waters off Vermilion/Atchafalaya Bays. Water vapor imagery/00z upper air analysis show troffing in place from ern Canada swwd through the n-cntl Gulf. The nrly flow behind the trof is maintaining dry conditions over much of the area, but regional 88Ds show off/on convection continuing to develop along the trof, mainly over the coastal waters to our east. best POPs remain across the sern zones in proximity to the low aloft.
With the cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures should be a few degrees cooler.
236 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Upper level ridging continues to ridge over Cuba while upper level troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The troughing digs further south on Thursday as a closed low develops in the base of the trough near LA on Thursday evening.
A wet pattern is expected to setup this afternoon through Thursday as a deep upper trough digs into the southeastern US. Currently the trough is situated over the Ohio river valley and extends southwest into the lower Mississippi valley. Temperatures will be warm today with highs in the low 90s but with the increased coverage in storms tomorrow highs will be much lower.
1137 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will maintain fair and dry weather through late week with temperatures trending above average through the weekend. High pressure and associated low-pwat air mass will build in from the Grt Lks overnight, ensuring mainly clear skies for most of central Pa. After the cool, calm early morning with mins in the chilly mid to upper 40s - north, and mid to upper 50s - Susq Valley, plenty of sunshine will help temperatures rebound to the mid and upper 70s across the Mtns and into the low to mid 80s throughout the Susq Valley.
352 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 A mid-level low pressure system will help support another round of isolated thunderstorms across portions of western and southwest Nebraska this evening.
Across the rest of the area summer like weather will continue as warm air advection ensues on the backside of a departing high pressure system. Lows tonight are expected to range in the lower to middle 60s. Highs Thursday will be a bit warmer, in the lower to middle 80s.
300 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Surface observations show high pressure settling into the Middle Mississippi Valley with surface winds generally out of the east/northeast across the CWA. Dry air in the low levels associated with this feature will continue to keep skies mostly clear and humidity low through the rest of the afternoon into tomorrow. With the high pressure remaining in place, afternoon highs tomorrow will rebound into the low- to mid-80s under mostly clear skies. Elmore To start the period, an upper-level cut-off low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will begin to transition northeastward across the Tennessee Valley.
A deepening mid to upper level trough over the TN Valley and southeast States should continue and possibly close off into a weak upper low to the west southwest of the forecast area through Thursday. Strong H5 ridge causing all the heat over the southwestern U.
450 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will drift over our forecast area tonight before exiting across New England on Thursday. High pressure will then generally remain in control of our weather into the start of the weekend.
This pattern features strong ridging over the Four Corners region and deep troughing over the Middle and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. Our sensible weather pattern through the rest of the work week will be driven a trough extending north through the TN Valley from a developing area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast. This low will lift northward over the next few days.
A strong high pressure ridge will bring fantastic weather with comfortable temperatures the next couple of days.
The overall synoptic pattern remains consistent today from the past several days, though with the broad ridge over the southwest CONUS shifted slightly east. Over the past 24 hours the upper level ridge axis has shifted from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains.
359 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Latest satellite images show some mid cloud trying to stream southeastward in lower MI but having the heart of the ridge over the region is prevent much advancement south. The ridge will continue to drift eastward through tonight which will allow the return of southwesterly flow into the region. Mid level heights will not change too much as the current trough pulls away because we get more into a zonal, split flow pattern. Euro favors the warm solution with ridging dominating while the GFS shows some deeper troughs making it down into the Great Lakes.
On Thursday, a weak cold front bumps into the persistent high pressure ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in Northwest Montana around sunrise.
The cooler airmass over the region will remain with highs in the lower 80s expected.
1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 A large dome of summertime high pressure was centered over the Great Basin this morning, as long wave troughing persisted across the eastern third of the conus. The Ozarks Region were under the inflection of these two waves, allowing for cooler than normal weather with less humidity than what typically August brings. A weak cutoff low will develop on Thursday over the lower Mississippi River Valley, helping to reaffirm the current positive PNA pattern.
1233 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the area for the next few days. High pressure looks to provide sunny skies today with perhaps a few patches of thin diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. 00z upper air analysis placed a strong ridge from the southwest U. Weak northwest flow prevailed locally, behind the mid level trof which extended from the eastern Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley. At the surface, 06z surface map placed an elongated 1018 mb ridge axis from Lake Superior southwest into northern MO. Northeast flow on the eastern side of the ridge resulted in seasonably cool and dry air across central IL. Tonight the ridge axis sinks south into the northern CWA and with clear skies, calm winds, and low dewpoint depressions, fog will be possible.
The ridge starts to break down on Thursday as an upper jet pushes inland off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. More weak surges of monsoonal moisture will enter the area, and slightly cooler temps can are expected as well. A more prominent cold front looks to pass over the area late Thursday and bring a risk of isolated thunderstorms to much of Montana.
Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dew points in the upper 70s.
252 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 High pressure building north of the Ohio Valley will keep generally dry and cool conditions over the region through the end of the week. This high will move off of the East Coast and then extend a ridge westward through the region to the Midwest.