Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
417 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS STILL HANGING OUT OVER NV/CA EARLY THIS AM. WV SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF THE LOW WHICH IS BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD INTO BAJA/SONORA MX. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS IN THE STATE ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE GOMEX COAST. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AN EASTWARD PUSH DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CASHES OUT OF VEGAS AND MAKES ITS WAY TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALDRICH ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MORPH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY LEAVING BRISK SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A BATCH OF ENERGY BEING SLUNG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THE AXIS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ON FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW IS STARTING TO MOVE NE THIS MORNING.
351 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CWA FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE THAT TROUGH EJECTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER HIGH TO TRACK COMPLETELY ACROSS THE AREA. MADE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV/MEX A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. IN THIS WEAKENED STATE IT WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. WITH A GRADIENT OF LOWER POPS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AND HIGHER ON NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 (Today and Tonight) Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LATE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE WILL OFFER ONE MORE DAY OF PROTECTION AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.
TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND ABR HAS FALLEN BACK TO 86 DEGREES. ALSO SEEING WDLY SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SPINK AND CLARK COUNTIES. BUT HAD TO UPDATE WIND GRIDS A FEW TIMES TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SPEEDS MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS PASSING COLD FRONT. WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS. THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE EASTERN LOW BEGINS TO BECOME AFFECTED AND KICKED EASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
359 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS/LA GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT EXPECTING THEM TO PICK BACK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO EXIST BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT A BIT CHILLY BUT HIGHS WILL GET UP INTO THE LOWER 80S.
Southerly winds will begin to increase today as high pressures shift east of the region. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer Today as a southerly breeze kicks up. Could start seeing a few elevated showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday morning as a southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area as an upper level low begins to wobble out of the Rockies and into the plains.
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. -HOWERTON KEY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF SOUTHWESTERN US UPPER LOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THIS MORNING SUGGEST LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ULTIMATELY GET ADSORBED BY NORTHERN STREAM LOW/TROUGH. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THE LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR WL GREATLY DMNSH ~15Z AS LOW-LVL JET SLACKENS & SLY SFC WINDS INCR W/ SUSTAINED 17-22KTS LKLY ACRS CNTRL & SC KS LATE SAT MRNG W/ 26-30KT GUSTS PSBL SAT AFTN.
It will be much warmer today with temperatures generally 10 to 15 degrees above normal. As a cold front approaches late in the day, westerly winds will increase.
549 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD THINK THE FRONT WOULD USE UP A GOOD DEAL OF WHAT ENERGY IS AVAILABLE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EFFECT OF A WARM FRONT.
(Today and tonight\ Dry cold front will descend southward into Missouri today before becoming stationary near I-70 this afternoon. Southwestern closed low to edge eastward into the western High Plains on Sunday with the associated diffluent flow and warm advection in the lower levels potentially leading to widely scattered thunderstorms over the western counties.
A LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS DEEPENING AND HAS PRODUCED STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WYOMING.
322 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE REMAINED FIRMLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A VERY SUBTLE WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THERE STILL REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG/DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND A VORT LOBE ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
117 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAIL THE LOW WILL GET NEAR THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
358 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS CIRCULATION DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS FROM EAGLE TO PUEBLO. THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF COLORADO.
311 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A warm day is on tap with high pressure to our south and a weak cold front approaching from the north. Should see limited chances Sunday with a s/wv ridge briefly across the area.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AS THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer Today as a southerly breeze kicks up. Could start seeing a few elevated showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday morning as a southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area as an upper level low begins to wobble out of the Rockies and into the plains.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND CONTINUED DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE HIGH CENTER TO BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER DAYBREAK. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 19 UTC SUGGEST SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LONG FETCH OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PROPAGATED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. A QUIET AND DRY SATURDAY IS FAVORED BY THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
150 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF THE NORTH COUNTRY'S WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOTHERS DAY. FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY'S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
(Today and tonight\ Dry cold front will descend southward into Missouri today before becoming stationary near I-70 this afternoon. Southwestern closed low to edge eastward into the western High Plains on Sunday with the associated difluent flow and warm advection in the lower levels potentially leading to widely scattered thunderstorms over the western counties.
A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEAL A SPRAWLING UPPER-LOW SPINNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NUMEROUS VORT MAXES VISIBLE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW CENTER.
As the upper low moves off the East coast, upper level flow will become more zonal. High pressure will stay in place over the southeast through the weekend with no rainfall expected. With little cloud cover and plenty of sun, temperatures will return to more average values, highs in the low 80s on Saturday and mid 80s on Sunday.
121 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 5H RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION. BUT MAY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON SAT AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA.
448 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN AND A MUCH COOLER DAY. A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT BRINING NORTHERLY WINDS. ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE MERGING OF A PAIR OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
THE AXIS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE AXIS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE.
254 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS SURFACE WINDS START OUT WESTERLY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION. IT WILL START A SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
412 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD THINK THE FRONT WOULD USE UP A GOOD DEAL OF WHAT ENERGY IS AVAILABLE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EFFECT OF A WARM FRONT.
CONVECTION IS FIRING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS. THE DEEP AND BLOCKED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL KEEP THE LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
357 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 OVERALL QUIET AND DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO DRIFT E TOWARDS OUR AREA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN APPALACHIANS PROPAGATES NE. EXPECT A WARM AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TODAY. AS THE S/WV RIDGE MOVES OVER TOMORROW. WE WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S ON SUNDAY. AS THE S/WV RIDGE BUILDS E AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W MOVES E.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS MI AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE DAY. CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE GULF COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY AND VIRGINIA, AND THIS IS WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK.
Satl imagery and GOES High Density Winds show a broad upper low centered over Southern Nevada with deep southwest flow aloft as seen in the latest KMAF VAD wind profile. Looking at the various model data it appears that the higher resolution GFS20 has the best handle on the pattern and convection moving into the Big Bend. Convection could develop further west into the Permian Basin Sunday night as the dryline retreats and the main upper trough passes across the Southern Plains.
AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.
126 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT.
145 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD THINK THE FRONT WOULD USE UP A GOOD DEAL OF WHAT ENERGY IS AVAILABLE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EFFECT OF A WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN / SOUTHWEST CONUS / FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. A COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIRCULATION AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MONTANA SATURDAY.
419 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WINDS WEAKEN WITH CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST MILDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT. BUT AT THE SURFACE AN EAST WIND WILL RESULT IN A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SEND MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA ON AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW WILL CREEP SLIGHT EASTWARD BUT WILL STILL SEND MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF JOHN DAY AND IN THE SOUTHERN UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EITHER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING GRADUAL STABILIZATION AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
435 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY AS JET STREAK EMERGES FROM BASE OF SOUTHWESTERN U. CLOSED LOW.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SPAWN SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS/SHOWERS AS A SOME WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
STILL SEEING A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. THE CONUS IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST AND AS IT DOES SO THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
107 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY.
501 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING FROM MS/LA TAILING DOWN INTO SETX AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER WEST- CENTRAL TX SLOWLY MARCHES EAST. TIDES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TOP OF THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS OF THE MONTH AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS.
HELD UP BY A BLOCKING SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. STRONG SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IS PROVIDING AN ENHANCED V PROFILE WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FEET. AS THE LOW TRUDGES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT SO AGAIN A RATHER DISTINCT DOWN TURN IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE RATHER NOTICEABLE AS WELL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MANY AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOW PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL KEEP THE LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
919 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016 THE UPPER LOW IN NEVADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PREDOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AROUND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
A HIGH-IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER DAY STILL APPEARS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. H5 FLOW OF 55-65 KNOTS IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE DAY WHILE A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA STATE LINE AND A DRYLINE SHARPENS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. IF THE CAP CAN HOLD THROUGH 00- 03Z A MORE RAPID TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE COULD OCCUR AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO BACK WITH TIME AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
POPS WILL DECREASE IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN AND STILL ARE QUITE CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW FROM WESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A DRYLINE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE EVENING FURTHER ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN AREAS EAST OF ARDMORE AND ADA.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERED THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE AND WARM DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. POPS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG.
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
1010 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
710 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL STABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO THE LOW END OF VFR BEFORE 25/17Z. ALSO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR TUESDAY WITH RISING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY AND SMALL AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TO JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND ACROSS COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY. AND A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S STORMS HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
944 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST WITH LIFT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. COLUMN COOLS HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS MINIMUMS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY END. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
1256 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP DRAW IN WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION BOTH UPSTREAM AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WEAK TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EXPECT VERY WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
The remainder of the CWA will lack the low-level moisture and be dry but breezy. The sheltered northern valleys will flirt with freezing temperatures for the second straight night. On Tuesday, the remnants of the Wrn WA trof will swing through and winds will swing around to the southwest.
2-METER /NON-MOS-BASED/ TEMPERATURES FROM SOME RECENT MODELS ARE A BIT COOLER YET. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
1056 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE TUESDAY.