Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
938 AM MST Thu Dec 22 2022 Current surface analysis shows surface arctic high pressure over Wyoming moving our way today.
850 mb temperature fields rise rather sharply for the weekend though mixing depths look to continue to be rather low, keeping highs below freezing.
Deep upper trough stretches from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Extreme cold front is currently situated from Northeast MO into Central OK and is just about to exit our forecast area. By Fri afternoon, the deep upper low will be digging over the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley with strong northwest flow over the Plains. By Sat morning this storm system will be centered over western Quebec with the trough encompassing all of the Eastern CONUS. Most locations look to stay near or below freezing until Mon.
(Tonight) The much anticipated Arctic cold front has pushed through all of the area, with temperatures in the single digits areawide except for a few spots in far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. (Friday through Thursday) The cold temperatures will persist into Friday and through the holiday weekend, although temperatures will creep upward during this time frame, especially on the high temperature side of things.
Southerly flow 5 to 10 knots today will become northwest 20- 25kts with gusts to 30-35kts as a strong cold front crosses the forecast area.
These showers are light and falling apart at they approach the Lower Keys. This coupled with a southerly wind has allowed for temperatures to rise into the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. The surface cold front will blast through the Florida Keys by the afternoon with strong winds and much colder air filtering in behind it. The thinking with the impacts from the cold front has mostly remained the same.
In addition, wind speeds will be gradually increasing as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the powerful cold front diving southeast out the Central Plains. A strong cold front will push through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys on Friday. As high pressure builds behind the front, fresh to strong northerly breezes are expected for much of the weekend.
Expect mainly dry and warmer weather, with light winds, through the holiday weekend. Meanwhile, winds are starting to diminish for the higher elevations along the Mogollon Rim, which were fueled by the strong trough digging into the central and eastern U.
Quite a bit happening out there this morning with fog slowly dissipating, low stratus sticking around, and temperatures staying cooler as a result. While some erosion of the low clouds is expected, it will be a slow process. The Lake Okeechobee and Treasure Coast region is going to see the most sun today and thus, warmer afternoon highs. A strong cold front with increasing west- northwest winds approaches the sites after the end of the TAF period.
529 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 (Tonight) The much anticipated Arctic cold front has pushed through all of the area, with temperatures in the single digits areawide except for a few spots in far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. (Friday through Thursday) The cold temperatures will persist into Friday and through the holiday weekend, although temperatures will creep upward during this time frame, especially on the high temperature side of things.
(Tonight) The well advertised arctic cold front is now beginning to cross NW AL and will eventually cross the I-65 corridor within the next hr.
Surface analysis shows a tightening pressure gradient as deep low pressure continues to spin over the Great Lakes.
This may lead to a few snow showers late in the day over the higher mountains. Cross barrier flow increasing to around 50kt in the mountains this evening with gusts with gusts up around 60 mph over the high mountain passes. That will be in thanks to the downslope flow and eventual lee troughing/erosion of the cold air to the east. However, we will keep the lower elevations to the north and east of Denver across most of the plains several degrees cooler than guidance due to existing snow cover and slow erosion of the arctic air.
(Friday through Thursday) The cold temperatures will persist into Friday and through the holiday weekend, although temperatures will creep upward during this time frame, especially on the high temperature side of things.
Southeast Arizona has a mainly dry northwesterly flow aloft, as we see a strong ridge near the west coast upstream, and a deep trough through most of the rest of the CONUS downstream. Any significant moisture increase will be mainly cirrus level as systems try to top the ridge and dig mainly east of our area.
Subsidence on the backside of the low has mixed 40kts at 850 mb winds to the surface.
533 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 (This evening through Friday) The Arctic cold front has cleared the area this morning, leaving behind bitterly cold temperatures in the teens and 20s and wind chills near zero. After a cold start to the day, we will see highs remaining well below freezing, in the mid to upper 20s, for Friday afternoon.
Lowered visibility and changeable road conditions are expected during the beginning of the snow, but the higher impact period from higher snow rates and low visibility is expected to be during the afternoon and evening.
The high does slightly weaken along the way, but widespread low temperatures will likely range between -25 and -40 tonight into Thursday morning. For reference, the last time Glasgow was colder than -35 was Feb 1, 2011 when the low was -37.
Some slight tweaks to the next 6 hours of hourly temps were made to match up to surface observations/RTMA but otherwise the lows appear to be transitioning properly to expected values. The high does slightly weaken along the way, but widespread low temperatures will likely range between -25 and -40 tonight into Thursday morning. For reference, the last time Glasgow was colder than -35 was Feb 1, 2011 when the low was -37.
529 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 A cold arctic high pressure system (1050mb) is moving into the Northern and Central Plains today. This high pressure will build into the region tonight keeping temperatures as much as 45 degrees below normal for this time of year. Temperatures will remain below freezing for the next day or so as a result. Friday will be "warmer" but afternoon highs will still be at least 30 degrees below normal.
Starting this weekend temperatures will warm back above zero and possibly even above freezing! For today, a high pressure system will slide into the west.
At the upper levels, strong upper Low sits over Wisconsin with northwest flow aloft our forecast area, as upper ridging builds over the west coast.
Most locations are in the mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. From synopsis, a strong cold front will push through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys late Friday afternoon or early evening. As high pressure builds behind the front, fresh to strong, and cold northerly breezes are expected for much of the weekend.
For this reason, will throw in some scattered flurries thru the morning downwind of some of the lakes, using the low cloud data from the HREF.
1044 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 (This evening through Friday) The Arctic cold front has cleared the area this morning, leaving behind bitterly cold temperatures in the teens and 20s and wind chills near zero. After a cold start to the day, we will see highs remaining well below freezing, in the mid to upper 20s, for Friday afternoon.
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 (Tonight) The well advertised arctic cold front is now beginning to cross NW AL and will eventually cross the I-65 corridor within the next hr.
Then expect mainly dry and warmer weather, with light winds, through the holiday weekend. Meanwhile, winds are starting to diminish for the higher elevations along the Mogollon Rim, which were fueled by the strong trough digging into the central and eastern U.
Warmer air will start to move into the western portions of MT on Friday. An area of light snow will accompany the warmer air moving in. Expecting some cooler overnight lows than originally forecast; therefore, adjusted accordingly. Warmer air will start to move into the western portions of MT on Friday. An area of light snow will accompany the warmer air moving in.
1119 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 A cold arctic high pressure system (1050mb) is moving into the Northern and Central Plains today. This high pressure will build into the region tonight keeping temperatures as much as 45 degrees below normal for this time of year. Temperatures will remain below freezing for the next day or so as a result. Friday will be "warmer" but afternoon highs will still be at least 30 degrees below normal.
Clearing skies and VFR conditions expected this afternoon with passage of cold front.
The low pressure system over Lake Erie early this morning will continue to undergo rapid intensification as it moves ene to be centered over Lake Ontario by 12Z (00Z EPS and overall guidance trends continue further east with this system). In addition wind speeds will continue to ramp up as the pressure gradient tightens between the system off to our east and strong high pressure ridge across the northern Plains.
As the Arctic high slides east on today and the western upper ridge will begin to spread warm air over the cold arctic dome.
The leading edge of the long-awaited, long-advertised cold front has officially entered the offshore Gulf waters of the Florida Keys at this early Friday morning hour. As often is the case with this type of frontal feature with the associated main upper-level trough displaced well to the north, convection will likely limp through the Keys. As a result, greatest chances for measurable rainfall will be to the west in the Lower Keys, with reduced rain chances as the front pushes through the Upper Keys. In terms of timing based on current KBYX radar reflectivity trends, the leading edge of the front should pass through the Lower Keys between 13-15z, the Middle Keys between 15-18z ,and between 18-21z in the Upper Keys.
Otherwise, the Arctic chill will continue to loosen its grip on the area as we go into Christmas day with highs climbing above freezing across most areas except perhaps southeast Kansas.
Weak short wave trough moving over the top of West Coast ridge early this morning is bringing a few light showers mainly to the northern mountains.
955 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022 The long awaited cold front is beginning to traverse the Florida Peninsula this morning. Hard Freeze Warning in the Nature Coast and Freeze Warning for Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Hardee and Highlands counties have been issued for Saturday morning, as near to below freezing temperatures are likely. Clearing skies and VFR conditions expected this afternoon with passage of cold front.
Winds remain quite brisk, but appear to have diminished a few knots now that the cold front is through and most of the snow has moved off to the east.
A weak upper level low pressure system is currently affecting portions of northern Nevada this morning. Upper ridging will be building into the area tonight and tomorrow. With the possibility of snow melt during the day, added patchy freezing fog for portions of Elko county tonight. For Christmas Eve, the upper ridge will build in with the axis moving overhead and east during the day.
For the weekend, temperatures will moderate as an upper level ridge approaches aloft and westerly downsloping winds develop at the surface. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower 20s in eastern areas to the upper 30s in Colorado.
Temperatures will begin to rebound tomorrow with highs above freezing areawide due to southwest winds and plentiful sunshine.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Cold high pressure has settled into North Texas this afternoon and temperatures are currently in the low 20s areawide with wind chills between 10-15 degrees. As this disturbance swings by tonight, clouds should thin out some and we'll see temperatures fall back into the low/mid teens throughout North and Central Texas. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures should finally climb above freezing during the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s.
We are currently upwind of a strong upper trough moving through the northeastern US. As this trough continues to push east, we will remain on the backside in cold northwest flow aloft. And with ground temperatures remaining above freezing, the radiational cooling isn't expected to be as extreme as it could be. With this in mind, we decided to lower overnight lows few degrees from guidance into the low and mid teens. We are expecting temperatures to once again rise above freezing in most, if not all, locations with highs in the mid to upper 30s, nearing 40.
Modest height rises aloft as an upper ridge across the Western U. Highs rebound to the low to mid 40s far southwest, mid and upper 30s central, to around 35 far east zones.
The strong upper low that brought weather through our neck of the woods has moved eastward impacting the northeast. Christmas eve temperatures will continue the upward trend as ridging across Western CONUS moves eastward. A warmer air mass will erode the current Arctic airmass over us. Ridging will continue to build out west leading to northwesterly flow aloft. The highest probabilities are 60 to 70% chance of 2 inches of snow across north central North Dakota into the James River Valley.
/Issued 1248 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2022/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Cold high pressure has settled into North Texas this afternoon and temperatures are currently in the low 20s areawide with wind chills between 10-15 degrees. As this disturbance swings by tonight, clouds should thin out some and we'll see temperatures fall back into the low/mid teens throughout North and Central Texas. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures should finally climb above freezing during the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s.
Although temperatures will slowly moderate we will not exceed freezing at any location through the short term.
Temperatures are running slightly cooler than forecast thanks to the early clearing allowing for some last second radiational cooling.
The high clouds keeping a good chunk of the area from seeing optimum sunshine is also not helping the feel of the cold.
The long awaited cold front is beginning to traverse the Florida Peninsula this morning. Hard Freeze Warning in the Nature Coast and Freeze Warning for Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Hardee and Highlands counties have been issued for Saturday morning, as near to below freezing temperatures are likely.
This lee-side trough will then slide southeast across the Panhandles Saturday afternoon and Saturday night switching the winds more to the north and northwest.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) ***VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING*** Regionwide temperatures tell the whole story as much of the forecast area remains in the teens and 20s with only the Rio Grande currently above freezing. A 1042mb high pressure is situated to the northeast over N TX with a slow push towards the Arklatex expected over the next 12-24 hrs.
A flat upper level ridge will push across the area Saturday night, so the light snow in the mountains should diminish to scattered showers with just a bit of moisture trapped in the high country. High temperatures should be able to reach at least the lower to mid 50s across the Denver metro area, while weak inversions still keep the plains several degrees cooler.
There will be some improvement with slightly diminished winds, so wind chill values may stay warmer than -10F in may valley locations, but for consistency/messaging sake, will keep the warning as is.
The rest of the forecast area will continue to experience dangerous wind chills, blowing snow, and occasional flurries/snow showers on the backside of a ~970 mb sfc cyclone lifting into sw Quebec. The impressive low level height gradient between this deep cyclone and a 1045 mb high dropping into the High Plains will keep west winds solidly in advisory criteria into early this evening.
However, a powerful cold front anchored to a deep midlatitude cyclone centered over Ontario, extends off the Eastern Seaboard and southwestward to the southern Florida Peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico. Latest Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity data show a broken line of showers along the approaching cold front, although cells along the northern flank of the boundary have decreased in both coverage and intensity during the last hour.
Early evening water vapor and IR satellite imagery are showing a much cooler and drier airmass spreading across the area under the breezy northwest winds in the wake of the cold front now moving through southern Florida. The primary weather concern remains the freezing temperatures and low wind chills expected tonight, with a repeat of freezing temperatures expected for the next several nights over parts of the area. For tonight, the forecast looks on track, with temperatures already in the low to mid 40s over the Nature Coast and upper 40s and 50s across the rest of the forecast area.
High pressure will be sliding south of our region Christmas Day, moving southeast of the PAH forecast area Christmas night.
550 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022 A strong Arctic cold front pushes farther offshore tonight with dangerously low wind chill temperatures expected. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect overnight as lows drop into the low to mid teens. Latest sfc analysis shows an Arctic cold front now pushing offshore, with gusty west winds left in its wake. The GFS/Euro have warmed into the low to mid 20s, while the Canadian has inland areas in the single digits. This is slightly warmer than the old forecast, but KCRE could still see a good chance for breaking a record.
Southeast Arizona has a dry northwesterly flow aloft, as we see a strong ridge near the west coast upstream, and a deep trough through most of the rest of the CONUS downstream. A few patches of cirrus to dirty up and spill down the front of the ridge from time to time. Some cooler air that spilled into New Mexico will likely stay east of our area with a warming trend for us over the next few days. The 5 day ensemble mean negative height anomalies we were looking at yesterday look like they will try to resolve into a pair of storm impulses pushing into the bottom of a new synoptic trough position that should be much further west than the current pattern.
Ensembles show an upper ridge amplifying across the region with dry and warmer weather for the holiday weekend.
This next weather system is forecast to be much warmer and have around 200 percent of normal atmospheric moisture. Initially, cold valleys are generally expected to have precipitation start as snow, before transitioning to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain. Model guidance show very little pressure gradient across Clearwater County, Idaho through northwest Montana, meaning cold air should remain in place longer and cause higher snow amounts and a higher likelihood of impacts from freezing rain.
While we may get a few flurries or light dusting when it finally hits the ground, the snow is expected to diminish over the next 6 hours as it moves east over the warm front.
515 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) ***VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING*** Regionwide temperatures tell the whole story as much of the forecast area remains in the teens and 20s with only the Rio Grande currently above freezing. A 1042mb high pressure is situated to the northeast over N TX with a slow push towards the Arklatex expected over the next 12-24 hrs.
Today's highs topped out in the upper 20s to low 30s, thus, almost all of Southeast Texas has been under sub-freezing temperatures since yesterday evening. For tonight, dangerously cold temperatures are expected once again with lows, though slightly warmer, lower into the teens to 20 degrees F. With the lows going back down to the teens and low 20s on Saturday night, another hard freeze night for much of Southeast Texas is expected.
403 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022 Extremely cold and windy weather will continue into the holiday weekend in the wake of an intense low pressure system.
These weather conditions are due to the ample ridge located over the Southwest. Our confidence is continuing to grow in regard to the ridge being broken down by a series of weather disturbances.
(Tonight through Friday) The anomalously cold trough that blasted into the area yesterday continues to move east tomorrow. The center of the trough will gradually move into southeast Canada over the next day keeping the cold northwesterly flow going into Saturday. Even so, Saturday morning will still be cold, with low temperatures ranging from the low single digits in the north to the low teens in the south.
Batch of mid-level warm advection clouds streaming southeastward out of Nebraska look to impact parts of north central Kansas later this morning into midday, which could be problematic and result in cooler high temperatures than forecast.
We may end up with another hard freeze warning for Santa with highs on Christmas Eve not warming much above freezing.
1047 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) ***VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING*** Regionwide temperatures tell the whole story as much of the forecast area remains in the teens and 20s with only the Rio Grande currently above freezing. A 1042mb high pressure is situated to the northeast over N TX with a slow push towards the Arklatex expected over the next 12-24 hrs.
07Z obs have a larger upper level low across the Great Lakes into eastern Canada with the jet stream coming out of the northwest from the Pacific coast to the southeast US. The warming trend starts today as the core of the coldest air will be pushed east by west to northwesterly winds in the low and mid levels. With clear skies and light winds the lows will be in the single digits and teens.
Highs on Saturday will remain below freezing for much of the area with wind chills in the teens and 20s. We'll start the very slow moderating trend on temperatures as we go into Christmas Eve, but even then most locations will still remain below freezing for high temperatures.
With broad surface ridging over the region, expect lows tonight closer to the colder MOS and probabilistic NBM numbers.
(Through Tonight) Strong high pressure will continue to build east across the area through Tonight, with a trough to the north. The region will be in the base of a 500mb trough this period, so a few clouds will move east through this flow and across the area. Winds will decrease Today, but will still stir through the day and into Tonight, due to enhanced gradient between high to the west and trough to the north. Lows Tonight will generally be around 20, except a little warmer at the coast.
A large occluded cyclone is retrograding over the Great Lakes, with its cold front tentacle just to the south of the Florida Keys. Since the cold front pushed through the island chain around sunset, temperatures have dropped about five degrees, with dewpoints now down about 10 degrees. We like the inherited forecast which calls for lows in the 50s, but a few locations in the Lower Keys may hang onto 60 or 61.
A mid level ridge was over the western states with northwest flow across the PLains and the mid level trough and low over the eastern states. Christmas Day is shaping up to be warmer with warm advection, mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 20s far east to the mid 30s in north central Kansas. Forecast soundings favor a wintry mix and freezing rain with warm nose in the 900mb to 875mb level. Flurries are also expected on the back side of the mid level trough as additional energy moves southeast into Kansas overnight.
527 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2022 (Today through Sunday Night ) Northwest flow aloft continues over the middle part of the country with strong low pressure over southeast Canada and an upper ridge off the coast of southern California. Highs today will be from the mid 20s to mid 30s and in the lower 30s to lower 40s Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the single digits northwest to the teens south and in the lower to mid 20s Sunday night.