Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
932 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Minor adjustments to the morning forecast concerning persistent cloud cover and pockets of fog in the higher elevations of the Sisseton hills. NAM has increased QPF/Snow amounts in a localized band of moderate intensity snow that will travel between Mobridge - Aberdeen - Watertown. The region is currently under a broad upper level trough with light surface winds. This stratus deck may erode some from the southwest later tonight as winds become southerly ahead of a low pressure system. With temperatures near freezing, believe snowfall amounts will range between a dusting to one inch for most areas. Slightly higher amounts will be possible in the eastern portion of the CWA where better low level moisture and cooler temps are possible.
356 AM MST Wed Nov 23 2016 Upper level ridge shifting east across the forecast area this morning with patchy low clouds and fog hanging on in a few of the lower valleys. This activity will burn off after 9 am with a dry and warmer day in store as the ridge moves through. Next Pacific system and its associated cold front will be sweeping through tonight with scattered rain and snow showers developing along the front this evening.
603 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front today. A weak cold front Thursday.
537 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Northwest winds with a weak high pressure system building in will slowly clear the skies out for today. This weak high pressure will move out of the area tonight as the next short wave approaches.
952 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure to remain in control today with east winds currently switching to the south as an upstream cold front approaches. A weak upper level trough will slide eastwards into the southeast states today and push a weak cold front into the region. However, with minimal deep moisture and the upper ridge holding strong across South Florida, any precip associated with the front is expected to dissipate before reaching the local forecast area.
The cold front that brought rain to the San Francisco Bay Area earlier tonight is now dissipating over the Monterey Bay region.
Areas most impacted by 1 to 3 (locally 4) inches of snow will be confined to the high valley of southwest Montana. Some fog is possible in the valleys Thanksgiving morning as a weak ridge stabilizes the atmosphere.
634 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure will lift into the region bringing periods of rain today into tonight. Precipitation will likely begin as a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow this morning across northeast Indiana, Michigan, and far northwest Ohio. Plume of deeper moisture within warm conveyor belt downstream of broad mid-upper level trough will bring periods of mainly light rain to the area today-this evening. Could see some very light snow accums on mainly grassy/elevated surfaces, with some light freezing rain possible mid morning given expected near freezing wet bulb profile under a warming/moistening layer near 800-750 mb. Weakening low level reflection and occluded front will lift east- northeast into the lower Great Lakes tonight.
420 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 A cold front was located across north Texas this morning from near Tyler extending southwest to northwest of Austin Texas. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s inland across Louisiana and southeast Texas to the lower 70s along the coast. A upper level trough across the center of the country will continue to move eastward this morning and begin to lift out to the northeast later this afternoon. As the upper level trough lifts northeast this afternoon. The cool front will sweep into the coastal waters tonight with high pressure building back into the area for Thanksgiving.
540 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slide east across Pennsylvania today. Weakening low pressure lifting out of the Mississippi bringing moderating temperatures and a few periods of light rain tonight and Thursday, mainly across the northwest half of the state.
915 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Warm front shield of rain showers lifting now north of the I-64 corridor into southern Indiana and southwest Ohio. As the cold front approaches from the west later this afternoon, rain showers will spread back into the area, especially mid afternoon onward. The base of this trough has a vortmax now over the Red River and it will rotate northeastward and cross the Wabash River this afternoon.
934 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure along the eastern seaboard will move off the coast.
634 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A low pressure system will move through the area today into Thursday.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS FROM KALI- KBEA THROUGH 15Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. Areas of fog will continue to develop east of a Hebbronville to tilden line through daybreak as winds relax ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. Slightly cooler and drier air will settle into the region in the wake of the front with temperatures about 5-7 degrees cooler than yesterday. Partial clearing tonight will allow temps to dip to near 50 degrees near VCT, however returning clouds across the southern areas will hold temps there to the lower 60s. The next trough will advance into the central plains on Thursday drawing clouds and moisture northward across the region and a return of onshore winds.
Then with the saturated near ground layer will see the possibility of another night of the low visibilities most likley in the east. Surface inverted trough oriented along the Red River and will continue to propagate slowly east today. East of the valley ahead of the trough will maintain some chance pops as a mid level shear axis rotates through. Temperatures overall remaining above or at freezing however with cooler road surfaces could see some patchy icy spots for the morning commute and will continue to address possible impacts with an SPS. With dry mid levels will have to also monitor for more mist although no fog upstream behind trough so low confidence on mist potential. Column a little cooler so temperatures likely to drop a bit blo freezing.
1055 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure located along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon will shift offshore tonight and Thursday, in advance of a cold front approaching the mountains from the west.
658 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure along the eastern seaboard will move off the coast.
517 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 /12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front has cleared the forecast area early this morning. /issued 403 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front has pushed southward across the entire forecast area early this morning. drier and slightly cooler air has moved into west central Texas. Weak ridging will build in over west Texas. Will see slightly cooler afternoon highs today, generally in the 60s, with sunny skies.
635 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure builds over the Tri-State today.
Winds will start to come up a little over the higher ridges ahead of the approaching trough, but showers should wait until sometime this evening. Incoming trough will cause winds to pick up overnight. Window of opportunity for an amplified mountain wave with and behind the trough axis, roughly 09z to 15z Thursday.
Surface wise, an expansive continental ridge is anchored over the Sunshine State northward into the mid atlantic region. A large area of high pressure aligned along the eastern United States down the Florida peninsula will slowly shift eastward into the western north Atlantic ocean, resulting in a fresh and deepening easterly flow. See no reason to stray from daytime highs near 80 with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Another region of high pressure centered over the Southeast United States will bridge a decaying cold front sinking down the Sunshine State this weekend. Thereafter, the high pressure system will slide into the western Atlantic ocean resulting in a gradual warming and subtle moistening.
Southeast flow will combine with the inverted trough along the coast to keep sky cover elevated. The airmass continues to moderate with warmer temps/dewpoints. High pressure to the north will move off of the mid Atlc coast allowing winds to veer to ESE and deepen with speeds generally 10-15 kts.
1005 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Dry high pressure will gradually shift east today ahead of a weak front, with limited moisture, that will slowly move through late tonight and Thursday.
1047 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Current water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough approaching the Mississippi River with an associated cold front stretching southward from Missouri into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Closer to home, mid to high cloud have increased ahead of the approaching trough but the low-levels of the atmosphere remain dry. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 51 68 44 / 20 30 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 50 66 48 / 10 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 50 66 48 / 10 40 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 46 64 44 / 10 40 40 10.
During the day the cold front associated with the rain will move from a Texarkana to Longview and Nacogdoches line to a Memphis, Tennessee and Vicksburg, Mississippi and Lake Charles, Louisiana line by 24/00Z. Drier air in wake of the boundary and the upper trough of low pressure shifting East of the region will return VFR conditions. /issued 323 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ The cold front has moved through the I-30 corridor and will continue to quickly move east through the morning hours. There is some heavy rainfall along the pre-frontal trough, and this will be the main threat for the rest of the morning.
710 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slide east across Pennsylvania today. Weakening low pressure lifting out of the Mississippi bringing moderating temperatures and a few periods of light rain tonight and Thursday, mainly across the northwest half of the state.
1015 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure will shift offshore today. A weak cold front will cross the area Thanksgiving.
918 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure builds over the Tri-State today.
932 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A warm front today. A weak cold front Thursday.
625 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure along the eastern seaboard will slowly depart to the east today and tonight. A weak warm front will lift north through the region late tonight and Thursday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the west.
1046 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slide east across Pennsylvania today. Weakening low pressure will track just north of Pennsylvania on Thanksgiving.
1009 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Coastal trough has brought some stratocu clouds onshore near the coast. This marine layer is expected to expand inland this afternoon as the coastal trough moves onshore late this afternoon into this evening. Areas of fog expected to develop well inland after midnight with this fog possibly expanding eastward towards the I-95 corridor near sunrise on Thanksgiving morning as the coastal trough and low cloud cover push back offshore. If the trough is slower to move out then the lingering low clouds could keep fog from developing near the coast late tonight. Ceilings near the coast should remain in the low VFR range, around 3k to 4k feet.
High pressure will continue to remain over South Florida today into Thanksgiving day keeping the weather mostly dry along with easterly wind flow.
High pressure over the eastern United States is keeping moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
A weakening cold front approaching the area will increase clouds and winds across the region today.
640 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Aviation An area of low pressure over Missouri this morning will track northeast through the Great Lakes region today. A window of an hr or two of freezing rain could exist. The freezing line is currently ahead of the advancing area of precipitation. We are planning on issuing an SPS as the precipitation moves into the sub freezing areas in a few hours. The route 10 region could be close to freezing still so a risk for icing may exist.
Deep convection beneath the upper trough, presently along the northwest coast of California, will continue shower chances across the far northern portion of the state.
Visibility restrictions possible across the ridge tops as low cloud merges into fog. The low cloud is on the edge of a Canadian high pressure system which is expected to move east today. Temperature profiles lean toward high potential for freezing rain if any precipitation falls during the overnight hours, with snow possible before exiting the state on Thursday morning.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon mainly across SE Kansas and Western Missouri as low pressure deepens in Colorado. Saturday will be very warm and breezy with highs in the low 80s possible in some locations. A cold front will drop south into the area late Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms.
330 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather into tonight. The next chance for showers arrives Saturday with a warm frontal boundary.
If the dewpoints manage to stay in the 40s to near 50, the inverted trof just east of the Laramie Range may trigger a few thunderstorms.
423 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS will shift eastward through the day today resulting in increasing moisture return over the region. Currently, the greatest rainfall chances and highest rainfall amounts are expected across Acadiana where model guidance is indicating that the highest precipitable water values will be juxtaposed with the maximum in mid level moisture and mid level vertical motion.
231 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Surface map at 07Z shows a ridge of high pressure near the East Coast with a weak isobaric pattern over Middle Tennessee. Temperatures will level off after today, but don't look for a pattern shift anytime soon, as high pressure to our east remains largely stationary over the next several days and offers an early glimpse of a summer-like pattern. The next cold front will approach from the west this weekend, but will rotate around the surface/upper high instead of pass through.
Kept the highest pops in our south central to eastern zones near the short wave passage itself. Concerning temperatures, despite the rain threat in our eastern zones and cloud cover, moisture advection will help temperatures climb into the 60s, possibly even the lower 70s in our south central SD zones. The second short wave will help to spark more showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area, with the highest pops once again warranted basically in the same locations as today, where moisture flux continues along the southerly flow. However the lowest 2. 5km continue to be quite stable, so shear in the lowest layers will not be tapped, not that the shear is that great anyway.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Despite mid-level ridging steadily building over the Lone Star State, enough low level moisture will exist to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms today.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
130 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Under high pressure, a weak warm front remains nearly stationary across southeast Ohio Friday into Saturday.
A strong area of low pressure west of the region will push into Canada today.
200 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure slowly builds across the region through early Saturday.
Skies are mostly clear early this morning with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 60s. The weak mid to upper-level trough that was over the region yesterday is now moving out into the Atlantic, being replaced by a ridge of high pressure from the west. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure will move off the New England and Mid-Atlantic coast today, then drift slowly south and east through Saturday.
358 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will roll into southern Canada by late Sat into Sun. Upper level jet will be on the south and east side of the upper low and over the Northern Plains late today and through 84 hours. With upper level jet moving into the area, the low level jet will respond. Cold front over western MT will move through Fri night. Another cold front will move through Sat afternoon/evening.
Severe weather chances will increase across mainly northwest Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening with dryline and cold front impinging on the body of Oklahoma.
346 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A frontal boundary just south of I-72 is expected to lift back north as a warm front today, and should get north of CWA during early afternoon. Convection chances to diminish from sw to ne during this evening as warm front pulls further north away from area and mid level level short wave moves into western Great lakes. Upper level ridge over IL today continues to influence IL's weather on Saturday bringing a breezy and even warmer day in the lower 80s across the area. Should stay dry on Saturday with a cap in place, though GFS model is showing some qpf in southeast IL on Sat, but discounted that for now with upper level ridge nearby.
Upper and surface ridging will prevail through the forecast with a dry airmass.
349 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Through tonight: Our region should experience the maximum effect of a transient, but relatively stout, upper ridge building over the area today before the feature translates to our east tomorrow. This ridge will help advect drier air into at least east and southeast portions of MS by the afternoon and help boost high temperatures in those areas into the upper 80s in some cases. Tonight, a plug of dry air advecting in from the southeast in association with the ridge (which will be starting to depart by that time) will ensure subtly increasing south to southeasterly low flow only has a chance to produce late night stratus in southwestern zones.
Primary Forecast Concerns: Broad upper level troughing moving into the western U. Decent surge of moisture will accompany the push of warmer air. but by then warm front currently across the Midwest will have made some northward progress and may push into western Upper. with a stretched out cold front extending back southwest into the southeast MN/western IA.
Gusty southerly winds in the 30-38 mph range are anticipated this afternoon as low pressure deepens across the Central High Plains. A trailing cold front will provide a focus for deep moist convection Sat afternoon across portions of Central KS with strong to severe storms spreading eastward into South Central KS Sat evening.
At the surface, light east- southeasterly flow will persist on the southwestern flank of a broad area of high pressure. With deep layer ridging building over our area and dry mid-level air persisting, no rainfall is anticipated through this period. Highs will be in the lower-mid 80s inland, while the sea breeze will keep highs in the upper 70s near the Gulf Coast.
As the mean upper ridge nudges eastward across the Tennessee river valley Today, all models suggest/and we do believe we'll see some updrafts then able in the diurnal pm heating hours to develop into scattered showers/storms. We'll therefore have a 20 Pop, primarily for the PM hours, and mainly for our northwest, or, where the mean upper ridge has vacated. A Warm front lifts north as the ridge vacates and sends dew points toward the 60s.
Instability axis will set up along/east of the dry line, with scattered showers and thunderstorms after 21z as area is brushed by an upper trough moving through the northern Rockies/adjacent plains. Slightly cooler and more stable airmass will move into the area Saturday behind a cold front. Temperatures will be cooler than today, but still well above normal.
A moist environment will remain across the area and as mid-level flow strengthens and becomes increasingly cyclonic at the souther end of a broad trough moving across the western CONUS and northern Rockies, chances of convection will return late Saturday.
625 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather into tonight. The next chance for showers arrives Saturday with a warm frontal boundary.
This area of rain is all associated with a weak upper trough that continues to slowly lift through the Central Plains this morning. Cloud cover today along with precip chances will likely keep today's high temps a few degrees cooler than in recent days, with low to mid 70s expected. This will lead to leeside low developing across the northern and central High Plains, with a cold front sharpening across the central U. Additionally, guidance further suggests stronger wind fields will eventually move into our area, however increased flow looks to lag behind the effective cold front.
Northward push of low level warm front today will set up a distinct southwest to northeast temp gradient for max temps this afternoon. Low level thermal progs would support highs as warm as the mid to possibly even upper 70s across the extreme southwest, to the lower to mid 60s far northeast. Chances of showers and thunderstorms should increase once again tonight as aformentioned wave progresses through mean ridge, with a period of more distinct low/mid level theta-e advection tonight. Strongest mid/upper forcing should impact northern half of the forecast area which also may correspond to best elevated moisture pooling with the retreating warm front. The main story for Saturday will be the warmth (highs 75 to 80) and the breezy conditions as post-warm frontal mixing becomes established with afternoon gusts possibly topping out in the 30 to 35 mph range.
Moisture axis in the lower levels will remain over the Brush Country through the period while drier air just above the surface will be in place across the coastal plains. Satellite water vapor imagery shows a weak short wave trough from north central Texas to the Mid-Coast moving slowly to the northeast. Short wave ridge over northern Mexico will move into south Texas tonight and remain over the region on Saturday.
439 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will move across the region today and shift off the coast tonight into Saturday. A warm front will approach and move across the region Saturday afternoon and night.
/BB/ Through tonight: Our region should experience the maximum effect of a transient, but relatively stout, upper ridge building over the area today before the feature translates to our east tomorrow. This ridge will help advect drier air into at least east and southeast portions of MS by the afternoon and help boost high temperatures in those areas into the upper 80s in some cases. Tonight, a plug of dry air advecting in from the southeast in association with the ridge (which will be starting to depart by that time) will ensure subtly increasing south to southeasterly low flow only has a chance to produce late night stratus in southwestern zones.
So will see highs in the mid 70s far north to the low 80s along and south of I- 70. Mdls suggest deep mixing on Sat which shud support temps into the lower to mid 80s across the region. The going forecast may need to trend warmer based on guidance trends lately. Mid level flow remains fairly zonal with a number of s/ws and/or deeper trofs progressing thru the region.
The next weather disturbance is expected to rotate around the base of an upper level trough into central Idaho this morning. Precipitation chances really begin to decrease by Saturday night as high pressure briefly builds into the region.
443 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Overnight clouds confined mainly to vrbl upper lvl cirrus as proximity of upper ridge shutting off gulf flow, and keeping low clouds mainly west of I-35. As the upper ridge shifts deeper into the se states, southerly flow to deepen across area and may begin to see effects of sea breeze with isold to scattered showers and possible thunder, mainly across portions of north LA south of I-20 Sat aftn into early eve.
Upper trof spreading into the Pacific Northwest this morning will slowly push east, developing into a closed low over Saskatchewan by Saturday. Cold front currently stalled out over eastern Montana with strong southerly flow into Montana parallel to the front.
1031 PM PDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Low pressure lingering over the region on Friday will promote cool, showery, and breezy conditions.