Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northeasterly breezes have started to freshen as mainland Florida loses its thermally induced trough that loosened the surface wind gradient earlier this afternoon. 0z soundings across the state report rising heights across nearly all levels of the atmosphere indicating that a deep ridge continues to anchor itself over our area. High pressure will build southward across the southeastern United States and Florida late this week, with winds gradually becoming more northeasterly and increasing from moderate to fresh by late this weekend.
Warm, dry conditions will prevail under high pressure for the next few days. Building heights/pressure in wake of the trough passage earlier is likely reinforcing a subsidence inversion near 850mb that's atop cool, moist low-level air. If the low-level clouds manage to break up a bit, radiational cooling will be otherwise maximized given high pressure and little wind in the low-level column. Strong upper ridging will build across the eastern CONUS the remainder of the week which will maintain dry conditions with an increasing trend in temperatures.
1052 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure builds in from the west Wednesday and then settles just offshore through the weekend.
716 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Through Tonight) High pressure will be northwest to north of the region through Tonight.
315 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Key Messages: The trough in the Pacific Northwest will continue to edge its way toward our area, tightening the pressure gradients as it gets closer. This, along with the low humidities necessitated upgrading the Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warnings for tomorrow afternoon in counties along I-25 corridor eastward.
1039 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will continue build into the area, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. Short wave trough moving off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. Weak short wave ridge in its wake across the area. Another upper low over the central and southern Plains will lift northeast to the Mid Mississippi Valley by late tonight. Mid and high clouds will increase overnight ahead of the Midwest Upper low as suggested by the HREF. Global models have trended a bit less amplified with the upper low that will move across the northern portion of the forecast area tomorrow. Mid level clouds pass over the forecast a with temperatures maybe a degree or two cooler compared to today.
651 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Weak high pressure is circulating almost directly above Middle Tennessee this afternoon just as the upper ridge has already slid off to the east. An upper trough will ride up the southwest flow aloft during the next 24 hours and keep widespread ceilings locked in for tonight and much of tomorrow, even as temperatures continue to gradually warm.
Colder air will continue to move into the area in the wake of a cold front. Drier weather and colder than normal temperatures are forecast for the latter portion of the week with frost or freezing temperatures possible.
752 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will continue build into the area, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. Short wave trough moving off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. Weak short wave ridge in its wake across the area. Another upper low over the central and southern Plains will lift northeast to the Mid Mississippi Valley by late tonight. Mid and high clouds will increase overnight ahead of the Midwest Upper low as suggested by the HREF. Global models have trended a bit less amplified with the upper low that will move across the northern portion of the forecast area tomorrow. Mid level clouds pass over the forecast a with temperatures maybe a degree or two cooler compared to today.
Expect overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 50s across most of the region. Highs tomorrow will range in the mid-70s to low-80s, with lows tonight and tomorrow night ranging in the low to mid-50s.
Temperatures across the Midsouth are in the upper 50s to low 60s and will likely be in the low to middle 50s at sunrise. A transient ridge will result in dry conditions across the Midsouth through the end of the work week.
Highs later this afternoon should warm into the low/mid 70s; a bit higher than normal highs in the upper 60s this time of year.
It will be a mainly dry frontal passage with the moisture staying to the west of the forecast area and closer to the upper trough in west and central Montana.
Then Wednesday, the trailing cold upper level trough will approach and increase shower chances again. Wednesday night through the end of the week look to be dry, but with cooler nights bringing some early morning frost to the valleys. Temperatures at 9 pm are in the lower 50s near the SF Bay, San Pablo Bay, Delta and along the coast. A few showers continuing Wednesday as a 500 mb vorticity trough passes over the Bay Area. Cold front and associated rainfall has moved eastward toward the Central Valley and Sierra. SFO Bridge Approach.
1131 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Key Messages: The trough in the Pacific Northwest will continue to edge its way toward our area, tightening the pressure gradients as it gets closer. This, along with the low humidities necessitated upgrading the Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warnings for tomorrow afternoon in counties along I-25 corridor eastward.
The cloud cover and the presence of higher dewpoints will result in a mild night with lows in the in the low 60s.
Mainly dry weather will continue with above normal temperatures Discussion: A weak upper low will move out of the Mid Mississippi Valley and across our region today before shifting to our east with upper ridging beginning to build in behind it later tonight. This weak feature will be moisture starved and much of the cloud cover will be of the high/mid variety, however, a few sprinkles may make it to the surface especially over the higher terrain north and east.
355 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Upper level ridging will hold to the south of the area today as an upper level low moves into the southeast states. In the lower levels a weak frontal boundary will remain across the region and this combined with the above normal temperatures, sea breeze development, and enough moisture, precipitable water values between about 1.
The cold front will continue to move east and a period of heavy snow is expected to develop in the Flathead Valley between 6-9am. Snow showers will continue during the afternoon as the trough spins off to the east.
216 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will continue build into the area, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. Short wave trough moving off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. Weak short wave ridge in its wake across the area. Another upper low over the central and southern Plains will lift northeast to the Mid Mississippi Valley by late tonight. Mid and high clouds will increase overnight ahead of the Midwest Upper low as suggested by the HREF. Global models have trended a bit less amplified with the upper low that will move across the northern portion of the forecast area tomorrow. Mid level clouds pass over the forecast a with temperatures maybe a degree or two cooler compared to today.
342 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will continue build into the area, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. Quiet weather ongoing across the region, as high pressure pushes into the region. Look for the clouds to hang around through the day as the trough pushes into the region from the west. While the trough will provide enough lift for clouds, I don't expect any rain to result this afternoon. Highs will tend towards the low to mid 70s across the area as intermittent clouds continue through the afternoon. Cloud should clear overnight as the trough departs to the northeast, with lows falling into the low and mid 50s across the region.
252 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 06Z surface data has high pressure on the east coast with a developing storm system in the Rockies.
449 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will build in from the northwest today then crest over the area tonight.
Low temperatures will bottom out in the low 50s across much of eastern OK and the mid to upper 40s for NW AR. As a strong trough digs into the Mountain West we will see a gradual tightening of the pressure gradient, leading to increasing southerly winds.
- Quiet with Warmer Than Normal Through This Weekend - Ridging will dominate much of the region the rest of this week resulting in persistent southerly flow and efficient warm air advection.
High pressure building north of the area will cause a local northeaster to build into the region today.
1059 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Wednesday will be similar to today with warm, above-average temperatures in the low to mid 70s deg F. The primary difference is that southerly winds will increase as lee cyclogenesis occurs in response to a trough approaching the southwest United States.
The upper level trough will continue to dig into the western United States through the short term with ridging over the Mississippi Valley. This will result in lee troughing at the surface to deepen across eastern Colorado.
Then Wednesday, the trailing cold upper level trough will approach and increase shower chances again. Wednesday night through the end of the week look to be dry, but with cooler nights bringing some early morning frost to the valleys. Temperatures at 9 pm are in the lower 50s near the SF Bay, San Pablo Bay, Delta and along the coast. A few showers continuing Wednesday as a 500 mb vorticity trough passes over the Bay Area. KSFO Bridge Approach.
158 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will build into the region from the northwest tonight with skies gradually clearing. Current radar shows a few returns, but overall dry conditions have prevailed this afternoon and will continue to do so through the next 36 hours as high pressure builds over the region. In contrast, HRRR/GFS soundings show the opposite with subsidence aloft drying out the low levels with clearing skies through the night. Dry and mild weather will continue through the short term period as we remain on the northern periphery of high pressure centered off the New England coast.
Surface analysis depicts broad but weak high pressure across the eastern CONUS, while Tropical Storm Lisa continues moving west across the SW Caribbean Sea. Aloft, a mid level ridge centered almost directly overhead continues to provide a stable environment for the Keys. 78 inches, most of this moisture was in the low levels, with a very dry airmass persisting above 600 mb.
In the wake of the exiting trough, ridging aloft will build east into the region through tonight with high pressure at the surface wedged into the forecast area from the northeast. Mostly clear skies will then exist tonight, with lows falling into the low and middle 40s.
1018 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 20z surface analysis had low over western MT with lee trough into eastern CO. Water vapour loop had upper trough of interest off the northwest CONUS coast with upper ridge over the northern Plains. Evolution of upper trough main forecast concern.
200 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Mid-level clouds will continue to thicken and lower overnight as a weak trough pivots through the Mid-South.
1208 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2022 A trough of low pressure will be responsible for scattered showers in the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada foothills today. A trough of low pressure will deepen over the northern half of California today. This trough of low pressure will be responsible for scattered showers in the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada foothills this afternoon. The trough of low pressure will deepen over Southern California tonight.
(Today through Thursday) Through the short term period, a stout Rossby Wave train will be breaking across North America which will manifest in the form of a deep upper-level trough in the western CONUS and ridging across the eastern CONUS. Temperatures are going to remain unseasonably warm, but comfortable, with highs generally in the mid 70s and overnight morning lows in the low to mid 50s.
Colder air will continue to move into the area in the wake of the recent cold front. Drier weather and colder than normal temperatures are forecast for the latter portion of the week with frost or freezing temperatures possible. Late tonight into Thursday, high pressure will begin to build into the area.
426 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (Issued 426 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022) Today through Thursday: Southern WI is still under the influence of sprawling high pressure that is over the east half of the country. This high will slowly inch eastward the rest of the week.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will result in dry and very warm conditions for the beginning of the period.
Low temperatures will bottom out in the low 50s across much of eastern OK and the mid to upper 40s for NW AR.
632 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper trough over the West Coast this morning with a weak ridge over TX and OK.
744 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Upper level ridging will hold to the south of the area today as an upper level low moves into the southeast states. In the lower levels a weak frontal boundary will remain across the region and this combined with the above normal temperatures, sea breeze development, and enough moisture, precipitable water values between about 1. The upper level ridging will shift west tonight and Thursday as the upper level low moves off the southeast U.
Record highs are unlikely near the lakeshore where it will be a bit cooler. Middle and high clouds will increase Thursday, which might keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than this afternoon.
Mid-level clouds will continue to thicken and lower overnight as a weak trough pivots through the Mid-South. Thursday will be a degree or two warmer owing to mostly sunny skies all day, with forecast high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Low temperatures Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer, in the lower to middle 50s.
Upper level ridging will hold to the south of the area today as an upper level low moves into the southeast states. In the lower levels a weak frontal boundary will remain across the region and this combined with the above normal temperatures, sea breeze development, and enough moisture, precipitable water values between about 1. The upper level ridging will shift west tonight and Thursday as the upper level low moves off the southeast U.
618 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will build in from the northwest today then crest over the area tonight.
652 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic and New England states today and Thursday.
This was likely due to low-level ridging continuing to build southward across the Southeast, acting to suppress large- scale ascent. Given height rises are expected to continue throughout this afternoon and drier air upstream of the mean easterly flow detected by GOES-16 CIMSS total precipitable water product, elected to lower rain chances to around 10% for the balance of today (which may still be a little on the high side). High pressure will continue build southward across the southeastern United States and Florida late this week and into the weekend, with moderate to fresh northeast breezes prevailing across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
Upper ridging will build from the west today, prompting drier air and clear skies to prevail today. Highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s. In the wake of the exiting trough, ridging aloft will build east into the region through tonight with high pressure at the surface wedged into the forecast area from the northeast. Mostly clear skies will then exist tonight, with lows falling into the low and middle 40s.
06Z surface data has high pressure on the east coast with a developing storm system in the Rockies.
As a result, we can expect another pleasant afternoon with a mostly to partly sunny sky, dry conditions, and mild temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
917 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic and New England states today and Thursday.
620 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (Today through Thursday) An upper level low passes to the north of middle TN this morning.
654 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure builds in from the west today and crests over the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure will then settle offshore with building heights aloft setting up a significant warming trend over the weekend.
1255 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (Issued 1255 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022) Low pressure of 998 mb over srn Manitoba today will gradually fill and move across Ontario on Thu, while a deep upper trough will dig from the Pacific NW to the Desert SW. These features and large high pressure on the east coast of the USA will maintain breezy sly winds, warm advection, and high temps in the 70s for Thu. Gehring (Issued 426 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022) Today through Thursday: Southern WI is still under the influence of sprawling high pressure that is over the east half of the country. This high will slowly inch eastward the rest of the week.
(This evening through Thursday) Low-level southerly flow has increased ahead of the approaching upper level trough with surface dewpoints forecast to rise into the 60s tonight and tomorrow across the forecast area.
328 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Dry and unseasonably warm Thursday and Thursday night -- An amplified upper pattern continues with a deep phased trough over the intermountain west and broader ridging extending to the East Coast.
Once the fog clears Thursday morning, sunny skies and warm temperatures can be expected with Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Winds will gradually back off becoming light by this early evening as the Upper level trough gradually moves east out of the area. High pressure builds in late Thursday bringing brief dry conditions.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery has been detecting a healthy mix of sun and clouds all day, with cumulus clouds originating from the low level easterly flow as well as an upper-level cirrostratus deck extending from the ventilation of Hurricane Lisa centered just east of Belize.
Tonight's lows will be moderated by the gradual increase in moisture in the lower levels with lows in the mid to low 50s.
211 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure overhead will last through the end of the week with well above average temperatures expected through the weekend.
310 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Surface and upper level ridging over the region will bring dry weather and warming temperatures through the end of the week.
The cold frontal boundary will swing through the state from west to east through tonight. In the wake of the front, much cooler conditions will occur Thursday with highs in the 30s for most locations, although some in the southern James River Valley of ND may remain in the mid 40s. Thursday night will feature encroaching high pressure producing light winds and clearing skies from northwest to southeast. The period starts out cool with highs in the low to mid 40s.
The models show the ongoing high cloudiness moving east of wrn and ncntl Nebraska by 18z and the low level jet underway will provide a warm start to the diurnal heating cycle.
303 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Upper low seen in H20 vapor imagery near Louisville this afternoon will open up and move to the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. Meanwhile, warm advection and plenty of sunshine will result in well above normal afternoon highs in the lower 70s.
Main story, otherwise, is that this dry weak cold front will push from western and central Montana northward; clipping us with rain just barely in our western zones today and clipping us with zone just barely in our southeastern zone overnight tonight. It will be a mainly dry frontal passage with the moisture staying to the west of the forecast area and closer to the upper trough in west and central Montana.
Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to showcase an amplified pattern with cutoff low over the IN/OH/KY region, and a deepening trough over the western third of the CONUS. In between, southwesterly flow is building eastward into the central CONUS and has manifested in a gusty and warm day as southwesterly winds have been gusting over 25 to as high as 40 kts in northwest Iowa and highs that have climbed to the low-to-mid 70s.
H500 ridge axis in place over the region will begin to shift east of the area on Thursday providing another day of dry weather and well above normal temperatures.
Dry weather will continue with above normal temperatures Thursday Discussion: The weak upper low has now moved over northern middle Tennessee this afternoon. It still looks like a few sprinkles are possible over the northern half of the forecast area late this afternoon and early this evening as the upper low moves east northeast toward the central Appalachians and middle atlantic states by Thursday morning. Temperatures at mid afternoon are in the lower mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s at Chattanooga. Higher pressure will rebuild over the eastern Tennessee Valley Thursday and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, several degrees above normal but not near any records.
256 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure settles across the region through the weekend, resulting in dry and mild weather.
1237 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Quick update to adjust temperatures as cloud cover and showers have kept temps a few degrees cooler. (Today through Thursday) An upper level low passes to the north of middle TN this morning.
104 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic and New England states today and Thursday.
Very dry air near the sfc up through 700 mb will keep the region dry tonight with the cold front.
100 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper trough over the West Coast this morning with a weak ridge over TX and OK.
/13 (Now through Thursday) An upper level low over the Tennessee Valley will continue to move east through tonight. As the low moves east, an upper level ridge will build from the Gulf northward across the southeast states. The ridge will continue to build through Thursday resulting in continued dry conditions and warm temperatures. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s inland to near 60 along the coast.
1044 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Quick update to adjust temperatures as cloud cover and showers have kept temps a few degrees cooler. (Today through Thursday) An upper level low passes to the north of middle TN this morning.
316 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 High pressure builds in from the west and crests over the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure will then settle offshore with building heights aloft setting up a significant warming trend over the weekend.
An approaching cold front will bring increasing clouds across north- central and portions of central Wisconsin throughout the day on Thursday, which will likely keep temperatures across these areas below record territory but still warm for this time of year.
Current weak, dry cold front moving through the region today has wrung out all of its moisture over the Rocky Mountains with none left over for us.
Clouds continue to clear out as the upper low lifts off to the northeast. Dry weather will continue with above normal temperatures Thursday Discussion: The weak upper low has now moved over northern middle Tennessee this afternoon. It still looks like a few sprinkles are possible over the northern half of the forecast area late this afternoon and early this evening as the upper low moves east northeast toward the central Appalachians and middle atlantic states by Thursday morning. Temperatures at mid afternoon are in the lower mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s at Chattanooga. Higher pressure will rebuild over the eastern Tennessee Valley Thursday and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, several degrees above normal but not near any records.
(Tonight) No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast package this Wed evening, as a large dome of high pressure continues to build eastward into the TN/OH Valley regions.