Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
321 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR TO START IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN COMBINATION WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY COOL. BUT A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HELP HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN COOL ADVECTION IN THE POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. EARLY THIS MORNING A TROUGH CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. EAST OF THE TROUGH. WEST OF THE TROUGH. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE STRONG VORTICITY THROUGH N WY TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SE MT/NE WY BY 12Z FRI. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRECEDE THE LOW OVER SE MT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN LEE TROUGHING AND GAP FLOW AT KLVM AND NYE.
235 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SLOWLY EAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THOUGH NORTHWEST IA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NE MN AND COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO TRIGGER A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR HAIL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FREEZING LEVELS DROP NEAR THE FRONT. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE A DRYING ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE FRONT SLIDES TO THE SE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SRN MN. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 60S WITH A PERSISTENT LIGHT NWLY WIND MAKING IT FEEL JUST A BIT COOLER.
207 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
130 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET AND WARM INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. THE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO LOWER 90S ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER OVER INLAND AREAS.
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN ADVANCING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN BY MORNING. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT MARKING LEAD EDGE OF INCREASED THETA-E WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MOISTURE AXIS/850 MB THETA-E RIDGE SLIDING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOMORROW. WILL NEED TO RELAY MOSTLY ON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. HAVE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO A RELATIVELY CALM YET BREEZY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONE IN NORTHCENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY RIGHT NOW. UPSTREAM RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT THE MODELS ADVERTISE FOR OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE TROUGH THE CWA BY NOON FRIDAY. THEN DECENT SUBSIDENT DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 1-4 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST CA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC. SETTING UP A MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
INSTABILITY IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL DROP ALL THUNDERS AS WELL. /ISSUED 724 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015/ CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO ITS EAST AND STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. A REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WAS NOTED AT THE SURFACE AND SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL WARRANT LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE.
610 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
131 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY.
The approaching cold front from the Plains will cause increasing southerly flow in the lower troposphere, raising moisture levels across the forecast area. South winds will become gusty today ahead of the cold front, with sustained speeds of 15-20 mph, and gusts into the mid to upper 20 mph range this afternoon. The front slows a bit tomorrow as it runs into mostly parallel flow out of the southwest, but starts to break down the ridge over the eastern half of the country.
347 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
353 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
SURFACE TROF HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA. COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STILL SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AS 850 MB TEMPS GO DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARDS INTO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALLOWED DRY AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MORNING PWAT OF ONLY 1. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP TROFS OVER THE EAST PAC AND ERN CONUS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE FRONT IS FCST TO WASH OUT AND/OR RETREAT NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROF/SHEAR AXIS DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE ERODING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE END RESULT DEPICTED BY GLOBAL MODELS IS AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. 13 A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TODAY.
1017 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH TODAY WITH THE RIDGE RETREATING WESTWARD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS HOLDING ITS PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR MEAN WIND FLOW TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT. WITH SURFACE TROF STRETCHING FROM SK INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. BREEZY IN THE USUAL AREAS LIKE FAITH AND PINE RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1244 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
848 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS OUT OF THE STATE.
803 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 AN UPPER TROF WILL KEEP PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DELIVER COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION TODAY. LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINALLY STEEP DUE TO COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT AUGUST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS SOME 10+ DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN SPOTS. H5 TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z FRI. WITH MAXES REACHING THE MID 70S NORTH AND THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE MORNING, CONTINUING TO SHIFT TOWARD ARIZONA. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST WHERE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 90 TO LOW 90S FOR THE FLORIDA ZONES AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE TAF SITES.
843 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
942 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ THE FORECAST FOR LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL ON TRACK AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT RELATIVELY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
934 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE VERY WARM WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AND AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTING A GREAT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KY AS LESS HUMID AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. NWP MODELS HAVE GOOD CONSENSUS WITH TROUGH CONTINUING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE A UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE THIS TROUGH IS NOT SUPER ABNORMAL WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF -1. THIS IS OF COURSE AIDED BY A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SPLIT LEAVING THE TAIL END TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS TOWARD CALIFORNIA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ABOUT 325 MILES OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL GIVEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
1112 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS HOT AS PREVIOUS DAYS MOST AREAS AND COOLER TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH HALF. DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING THOUGH ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INITIALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC FROM THE EAST THEN TRANSITIONING OFF THE NORTHERN GULF FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. /ISSUED 313 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CENTER SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST.
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER TODAY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT.
732 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 65 89 66 / 10 0 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 63 85 64 / 10 0 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 62 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 58 84 57 / 10 0 10 0.
Will also place the cooler highs today where the better chances for afternoon precipitation will occur. Tonight and Thursday subtle upper level disturbances will continue to rotate around the upper high which will slowly be moving northeast into northern New Mexico.
THE WEAK UPPER LOW THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED IF NOT COMPLETELY ERODED.
643 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT DURING THE MORNING ENDED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MEAN H5 RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
648 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS IS CERTAINLY A GOOD SIGN THAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPEDE THE INTRUSION OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THIS AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION BEFORE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
1032 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
1134 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
654 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. AT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WAS SITUATED FROM KS N-NE ACROSS WESTERN IA INTO MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
1007 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. MAINTAINED FCST REASONING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS COASTAL AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
637 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA INTO NW MO AND EASTERN KS WILL SETTLE OVER IL OVERNIGHT. 1022MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. OVERALL TREND HOWEVER WILL BE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS.
1016 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WILL SEE THIS FEATURE SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS.
BUT SOME STORMS (IF ANY) CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD MOVE MORE SOUTHWEST ON EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE.
713 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
/issued 341 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ The upper ridge that has been persistent across the region the last several days, will slowly move NW today and become anchored near the NM/CO border through the end of the week. 850mb thermal ridge will edge slightly westward and surface temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler then yesterday, yet remain above normal for this time of year. A mid-level theta-e axis, embedded in the eastern side of the upper ridge, will return later today and by Thursday afternoon PWATs are forecasted to increase to near 1.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 100F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
547 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015 CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION 12Z TAF CYCLE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NM.
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move through the Concho Valley this morning, approaching the Interstate 10 corridor this afternoon and becoming diffuse. Although weak, this front will result in slightly cooler temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
1052 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
1209 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. MAINTAINED FCST REASONING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS COASTAL AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. LINGERING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAY KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT. BUT OVERALL THE THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL AUGUST DAY. THE UL TROF WILL RECEDE AND DE-AMPLIFY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO TEMPORARILY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. WITH THE TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN NY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
643 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 1022MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. OVERALL TREND HOWEVER WILL BE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY. WARMER 850 MB TEMPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE N PLAINS.
627 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DUE TO DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE TOP THE RIDGE. STARTED THE TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS WELL /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/.
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NOW UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS TRACKING THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT DURING THE MORNING ENDED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MEAN H5 RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
731 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DUE TO DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE TOP THE RIDGE. STARTED THE TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS WELL /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/.