Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Radar currently showing a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over lower Acadiana into the Gulf waters ahead of a slowly retreating warm front extending over the northwest Gulf. Unsettled weather conditions are expected through this TAF package with primarily IFR or low end MVFR ceilings as a warm front advances toward the area moving onshore through the day. Radar showing a few showers aligned along a slowly retreating warm front over the northwest Gulf. Precipitation is moving to the northeast as the warm front is beginning to back to the north at this time. Winds to swing around to the southeast tomorrow as high pressure migrates off to the northeast. As the warm front lifts out of the gulf showers a few isolated thunderstorms will develop and increase in area coverage late morning into the afternoon hours tomorrow.
Deep layer ridge extended across Florida will continue a warm and mostly dry weather pattern through much of the remainder of the work week.
138 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 A weak weather system will lift across the region tonight, before high pressure works into the region Monday.
104 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Warm, dry weather will continue until low pressure returns later in the week. High pressure will support quiet conditions through the period. Overnight temperature should remain elevated under a cloudy sky in southerly flow ahead of an encroaching Great Lakes trough.
Went ahead and added a mention of patchy fog/freezing fog after midnight.
1041 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 A broad subtropical ridge persists across the western North Atlantic. Numerous thunderstorms speckle this low-level jet core, sort of unusual for this time of year. We have retained the previous cycle's idea for scattered showers across the Atlantic-side waters, although coverage should wane as the showers near the cooler waters adjacent to the island chain, and coverage should erode quickly after sunrise. An uncommonly strong high pressure center near Bermuda will extend a ridge westward along 30N to North Florida tonight and Monday.
342 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Warm, dry weather will continue until low pressure returns later in the week. High pressure will support quiet conditions and above normal temperatures through the period.
Temps will turn noticeably cooler on Thur as surface riding increases and low clouds form and hang around thru the day. Temperatures this afternoon will climb to around 15 degrees above normal as a low level thermal ridge sets up over the region.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 59 70 60 71 / 50 80 80 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 56 68 57 69 / 30 70 80 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 63 54 68 55 68 / 20 70 80 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 51 65 53 65 / 10 70 80 60 60.
This has resulted in some cooler temperatures down that way along with some patchy fog development. Latest guidance shows our winds kicking back to the southwest this evening and we'll probably see the low clouds develop downward once again.
1207 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: A warm front is beginning to move north across the area and is bringing with it IFR/LIFR as it does.
1242 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 The deep layer ridge stretches from Bermuda to Florida to the Yucatan. It is unusually strong for this time of year and there is significant subsidence south and west of the ridge ie the Bahamas and Florida.
The remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled as the light wintry precipitation (freezing drizzle/snow) has ended/shifted eastward. The freezing drizzle has pretty much ended across our forecast area and the last band of snow is working east towards Highway 81. We will be between these fast moving short waves and should be dry and warmer with highs back above freezing for the entire forecast area.
S/W moves in from the southwest atop the warm front tucking up into the coastal waters during the late morning/afternoon hours and with it will likely come DZ/-RA and possibly a band or two of showers. High pressure will move east of the region tonight with surface winds becoming east to southeast. With clear skies over the north, there could be some patchy fog developing over the north prior to the lower clouds moving in. A developing warm front will approach the coast early Monday with clouds developing and areas of light rain/drizzle developing toward the coast. Upper ridging will expand westward and anchor itself over the Gulf through mid week.
1005 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2020 20z surface analysis had warm front from eastern SK through central NE. Cold front has pushed into central to northeast MT. Pleasant day southwest of the warm front over the CWA, but still chilly northeast of the front. Water vapour showed energy pouring into the northwest CONUS, which is carving out upper trough. Tonight, upper trough moves into MT as warm front stalls and front oozes into southeast MT. Temperatures will be tricky tonight with warmest readings over the higher terrain.
The low cloud layer now over southern IN likely will expand south and eastward through daybreak, getting roughly to the KY Pkwys.
1132 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Ridge of high pressure will drift east of the region overnight as a weak area of low pressure moves across the central Great Lakes late tonight into Monday.
Still expect temperatures too be warmer despite to clouds because of warm air advection. Otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies tonight as the system moves through with lows staying above freezing as a warm front lifts north of the area. A cold front will move southeast across the area on Tuesday.
418 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Calm winds and a clear sky across Middle Tennessee this morning are encouraging cooler temperatures and some fog development.
This will keep temperatures a bit cooler across much of eastern Oklahoma. Low thunderstorm chances will then be possible Wed afternoon and night as another cold front moves into the Red River and a subtle mid to upper level perturbation within WSW flow moves across north TX. More widespread and significant rainfall chances will arrive throughout the day Thu into Fri with a fairly persistent fetch of deep moisture and a mid to upper trough approaching. Temps appear very tricky during the day Thu behind the cold front. This could result in some winter precipitation in the form of freezing rain or sleet developing over portions of northern OK during the last half of the day.
541 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 For the 12Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will strengthen over eastern CO and eastern NM today. This will cause a sfc trof of low pressure to deepen along the eastern slopes of the Rockies.
The area will remain under the firm influence of the western periphery of a sprawling high pressure system over the west Atlantic. The mid level ridging will also continue to block the moisture and instability associated with the frontal boundary, thus, having no net effect over SoFlo in terms of active weather. Meanwhile, model solutions show the mid-low level ridge axis migrating southward and maybe a little closer to the Fl peninsula, with zonal flow establishing aloft.
The lowest visibilities reported from ASOS/AWOS sites has been 1/2 mile, but there could be some localized spots with dense fog. As a result, forecast temperatures for today favor the low end of guidance. Regardless, it will be the warmer than the past few days as high temperatures return to the upper 30s to mid 40s. High temperatures are forecast to be similar to today, but they could feasibly end up a couple degrees warmer, especially with an increasing southeast wind to help out.
Slightly warmer readings in the middle 40s will be noted south of I-70 where no snow cover exists.
This will cause a sfc trof of low pressure to deepen along the eastern slopes of the Rockies.
434 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 A warm front will move across the region today that will be followed by a rather warm and humid period with bouts of showers and the potential for fog through the week.
There also remains some concern that spotty light freezing drizzle could linger behind the upper wave into early Tuesday as the mid-levels dry out. Clearing may spread into at least portions of the area by Tuesday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Temps will likely remain nearly steady or slowly rise ahead of the approaching cold front tonight while gusty west winds/strong cold advection will limit the temp rebound on Tuesday.
346 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 A broad trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS this morning with southwesterly flow aloft streaming across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic States. At the surface, a warm front extends from the Carolinas, southwest across Mobile Bay, and into the Bay of Campeche. While the surface front will likely remain south of the CWA much of the day, the frontal zone will slope poleward over the cooler air mass allowing moist, isentropic ascent/warm advection across the Mid-South. The warm front will waffle back and forth across the Mid-South for a few days, providing continuing rain chances really through the end of the work week.
A warm front moving north across the eastern portions of the CWA this morning is producing light rain, patchy fog and very low cloud decks. /issued 417 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A warm front drifting north along the lower Texas coast has allowed patchy fog and drizzle to form near the coast this morning. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s under a mix of sun and clouds with steady southeast flow.
High pressure ridge axis shifts northward with continued onshore flow. Ridge axis north of the local waters providing continued ESE/SE flow 10-15 kts.
525 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 The primary concern this morning is the ongoing dense freezing fog across portions of eastern Kansas and extending into west-central Missouri. Surface temperatures have fallen 5 to 10 degrees in areas where stratus has cleared and dense freezing fog has developed. Caution should be taken for both the decrease in visibility and the development of slick conditions on hard surfaces, especially on bridges and overpasses. Warm front will push northward into Iowa under increasing warm air advection keeping surface temperatures above freezing until the cold front moves through by early Tuesday.
Snow levels are slightly higher than 2000 feet this morning and those snow levels will continue to rise throughout the morning hours as warmer air moves in ahead of the next approaching low.
A ridge of high pressure and colder air will sweep back in overnight and linger through mid morning Tuesday, with 850mb temperatures falling to -6 to -13C (lowest along the ND/SD border).
Snowfall amounts of 1 to 6 inches look likely over the higher elevations of the San Juan and Sawatch Ranges, with the heaviest amounts over the highest west facing slopes. Despite some modest mid level cooling and cloud cover, max temps today will end up a few degf warmer than yesterday thanks to stronger winds/deeper mixing.
However, surface observations have suggested that not a lot hit the ground (at least in the lower elevations) until around 4AM. Blowing and drifting snow will remain likely in the high elevations this afternoon and evening as wind gusts pick up. Most locations will be just a couple degrees warmer from yesterday; temperatures still remain cool across the area. Much of the CWA will experience highs on Tuesday around 5 degrees warmer allowing southern and lower valleys to rise above the freezing mark.
Forecast soundings remain saturated in the low levels through the morning and dry out somewhat after 17Z, but still show a saturated layer between 800-950mb. Skies clear out overnight to help temperatures fall back to the low 20s to low 30s by tomorrow morning.
/issued 351 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020/ Zonal flow aloft will give way to southwesterly flow later this morning as an expected upper level trough traverses the region.
With passage of upper trof late Tuesday, will see another southward surge of arctic air.
836 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Highs again in the lower to mid 80s most locations and will likely again see a tied/broken record or two for today. Fairly light E/SE winds will be in place across the waters through much of the week under high pressure, with no headlines expected through the period.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A warm front drifting north along the lower Texas coast has allowed patchy fog and drizzle to form near the coast this morning. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s under a mix of sun and clouds with steady southeast flow.
As the airmass stabilize behind the trough, weak to moderate mountain wave amplification develops. Strong winds will continue above timberline, with areas of very light snow confined primarily to the higher west facing slopes.
Temperatures are below freezing in these areas, so if the dense fog can move into the area, some patchy freezing fog will be possible and a few slick spots will not be out of the question. Southeasterly winds will occur today and allow warmer temperatures to occur across the area, as highs top out in the upper 40s to the upper 50s this afternoon. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 30s to the lower 40s as a warmer air mass will be in place.
An upper trough to the west will eject east this morning crossing our area and provide further lift for light snow. The modest mixing we may see behind the trough axis around midday may switch the east winds at Livingston to westerly, with those westerly winds spreading into the foothills as the cold air is pretty shallow and may mix out easily. The light snow will end by tonight as the trough axis passes east.
/issued 346 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020/ A broad trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS this morning with southwesterly flow aloft streaming across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic States. At the surface, a warm front extends from the Carolinas, southwest across Mobile Bay, and into the Bay of Campeche. While the surface front will likely remain south of the CWA much of the day, the frontal zone will slope poleward over the cooler air mass allowing moist, isentropic ascent/warm advection across the Mid-South. The warm front will waffle back and forth across the Mid-South for a few days, providing continuing rain chances really through the end of the work week.
351 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Zonal flow aloft will give way to southwesterly flow later this morning as an expected upper level trough traverses the region.
A persistent, deep layered western Atlantic ridge axis lying across the extreme Southeast United States and North Florida today, will settle southward and weaken considerably over the next several days. This will be in response to a decaying cold front pressing equatorward into the Southeast United States.
Calm winds and a clear sky across Middle Tennessee this morning are encouraging cooler temperatures and some fog development.
A warm front will lift north into the area today. As dewpoints increase further into the afternoon and Monday night, will expect sea fog development over the bays and nearshore waters, where SSTs remain in the lower 60s. With the increased cloud cover, we will continue the higher temperatures for tonight, with lows in the low to mid 60s.
638 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Progressive flow will promote warm weather with occasional chances for rain early this week before a late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation chances. That said, a passing warm front will shift sfc winds to the WSW this aftn and aid in temperature rises to above normal levels.
A second storm system will arrive on Tuesday, followed by high pressure aloft developing for a short stay midweek.
421 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 The primary concern this morning is the ongoing dense freezing fog across portions of eastern Kansas and extending into west-central Missouri. Surface temperatures have fallen 5 to 10 degrees in areas where stratus has cleared and dense freezing fog has developed. Caution should be taken for both the decrease in visibility and the development of slick conditions on hard surfaces, especially on bridges and overpasses. Warm front will push northward into Iowa under increasing warm air advection keeping surface temperatures above freezing until the cold front moves through by early Tuesday.
414 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Warm, dry weather will continue until low pressure returns later in the week. High pressure will support quiet conditions and above normal temperatures through the period.
Some clearing may occur this evening, but a weak cold front entering northwestern Oklahoma tonight will serve as a boundary to the east of which low clouds/fog are expected again tomorrow morning.
149 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Some breaks in the low clouds have finally formed over west KY. Will carry considerable cloudiness, as high pressure moves east.
Clouds holding strong this morning ahead of the approaching trough and warm front that will bring showers and some thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning. A warm front will lift northward after 00Z and this will provide areas of showers and thunderstorms.
Still expect warmer temps south. to above freezing.
The tail end of a returning warm front is moving north along the coast. A warm front moving north across the eastern portions of the CWA this morning is producing light rain, patchy fog and very low cloud decks. /issued 417 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A warm front drifting north along the lower Texas coast has allowed patchy fog and drizzle to form near the coast this morning. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s under a mix of sun and clouds with steady southeast flow.
Behind the low there should also be some gustiness as pressure rises invade from the north. Behind the low, CAA takes over as a colder airmass dives into the CWA.
These conditions are expected to generally persist through the remainder of the afternoon hours, with high temperatures topping out in the low 60s except for areas along and near the Rio Grande where breaks in the cloud cover should allow for temperatures to reach near 70 degrees. With a warm front lifting north of the region by mid day, high temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the low 70s expected.
324 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Moisture to our south will spread northward tonight ahead of a weak upper trough heading from the Midwest to the Great Lakes and behind a large upper ridge centered between Bermuda and Florida. Temperatures will moderate ahead of an approaching cold front to our west, however, cloudiness, time of year, and lack of strong low level WAA will temper the rise. Tuesday night begins with west-southwest almost zonal flow overhead and a weak cold front running west to east across Tennessee.
1023 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Currently - An Atlantic ridge extending westward into the southeastern United States is producing moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain to our north through the afternoon. With ample insolation and a warm wind, expect temperatures to top out in the lower 80s with dew points near or slightly above 70. A ridge across the southeastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes across Florida Keys waters.
Advecting slightly warmer H850 temps into the region tomorrow compared to today will allow high temperatures to warm up to some locations potentially reaching the lower 70s.
1146 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 The primary concern this morning is the ongoing dense freezing fog across portions of eastern Kansas and extending into west-central Missouri. Surface temperatures have fallen 5 to 10 degrees in areas where stratus has cleared and dense freezing fog has developed. Caution should be taken for both the decrease in visibility and the development of slick conditions on hard surfaces, especially on bridges and overpasses. Warm front will push northward into Iowa under increasing warm air advection keeping surface temperatures above freezing until the cold front moves through by early Tuesday.
Clouds holding strong this morning ahead of the approaching trough and warm front that will bring showers and some thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning.
With increasing moisture, and clouds expected to develop, expect low to be a few degrees warmer for much of the area. For Tuesday, the low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle will linger into the mid morning hours before temperatures warm up. By late morning or early afternoon, we should just have some high clouds across the area, and another warm day on tap with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Previous updated zones reflected removal of freezing fog and the addition of patchy fog for some locations in and near the Arkansas river valley through 18z.
WPC has analyzed a slow moving warm front just northwest of the area with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along it near our western and northwestern counties. This will continue lifting northeastward through the day with the highest rain chances across the northwestern areas.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 69 60 72 55 / 80 80 60 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 68 56 69 52 / 80 80 60 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 53 67 54 68 50 / 90 100 50 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 64 51 66 48 / 80 80 50 60 70.
230 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Will keep a mention of potential for drizzle/light rain/light freezing rain/snow/sleet into this evening, mainly in western IA and far eastern NE where some of the short range model guidance continues to show light precipitation developing. So areas that have surface temperatures that remain below freezing could have some icing. Slightly warmer air will continue to advance very slowly northward the next few hours. A ridge of high pressure should build in on Tuesday, with cold air across the northern half of the forecast area.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 58 69 60 72 / 50 90 80 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 55 68 56 69 / 30 90 80 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 63 53 67 54 68 / 10 90 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 51 64 51 66 / 10 90 80 50 60.
1111 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Progressive flow will promote warm weather with occasional chances for rain early this week before late week low pressure brings colder air and more widespread precipitation. Update made to reflect current satellite conditions, which does show an area of clearing between the southern stream low pressure and the cloud deck moving in from the northwest.
333 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Currently - Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are being driven by an Atlantic ridge that reaches into the southeastern United States. The Keys remain fairly close to the lower to mid level ridge and under building ridging aloft. Temperatures have pushed into the lower 80s with dew points near or slightly above 70. Forecast - The ridge will remain in place to our north through tomorrow then shift southward across Florida heading into mid week and remain there for a few days.
So, could see a hour or two period of some light freezing drizzle. Right now, looks like the highest snow totals tonight (2-3+ inches) will be from portions of northeast IA/ southeast MN into west-central and northwest WI. Models indicating nice push of drier air into the area Tuesday behind the departing wave of low pressure and incoming ridge of high pressure from the Plains.
/Issued 541 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020/ For the 12Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will strengthen over eastern CO and eastern NM today. This will cause a sfc trof of low pressure to deepen along the eastern slopes of the Rockies.
314 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 An upper disturbance will cross the region this evening followed by high pressure late tonight into Tuesday.
335 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Weak low pressure will bring a chance of rain southeast of I-71 toward sunrise Tuesday, before exiting out by noon.
102 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Some breaks in the low clouds have finally formed over west KY. Will carry considerable cloudiness, as high pressure moves east.
A weak high pressure area will drift across Il on Tuesday, as the next system forms in the west.
128 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2020 Water vapor shows large upper trof over the western CONUS.