Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
353 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Still expect showers and thunderstorms to continue through most of the night as there will be strong low level moisture convergence across much of the area ahead of a mid level trough currently over KS/OK. The trough will pass to the east on Saturday morning, but the cold front will still be over the northern part of the CWA. Britt (Saturday Night) Isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder remains possible during the evening hours along and ahead of the cold front. slightly cooler and drier (lower dewpoints) air will filter into the bi-state area. Low temperatures certainly look cooler than the previous few nights.
High pressure center over the Carolinas is pushing an easterly flow into the forecast area. An approaching cold front from the west will bring a chance of showers tomorrow morning for KTCL that may spread eastward late tomorrow morning.
203 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Southerly flow on the backside of high pressure will bring an increase in humidity today, then a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight. A muggy weekend is in store with occasional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will be slow to advance east up the Ohio Valley. Mid level ridge to push off to the east with low traveling east from the northern plains into the western Great Lakes overnight. ranging from the lower 80s far north to the mid 80s south. Temperatures will be warmer that yesterday, ranging from the lower 80s in the north to the upper 80s across nrn KY. As the s/w works e tonight, it breaks down the upper ridge over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler with the pcpn and cloud cover.
340 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will extend from off the New England coast southwest through the Middle Atlantic states, including NC through Saturday. A cold front will approach from the NW late in the weekend. Even though high pressure aloft and at the surface will begin to break-down, expect generally dry conditions to persist, with only isolated shower or two possible across the far eastern zones given the continued potential for outer bands of Julia to move onshore. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Winds remain generally light and variable across the region as weak low pressure roams across the area. Saturday, a few shower chances are still possible along the seabreeze as moisture remains in place, but best instability remains to the east over the Gulf as the midlevel low remains in place just off the Louisiana coast, and H5 ridging rebuilds across south Texas.
635 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will move southeast of the region through Saturday.
Mornings will be on the cool side, near to below freezing in many places, with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s by the end of the weekend.
349 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 There is fairly decent amount of convective cloudiness over the mountians, foothills, Palmer and Cheyenne ridges. A weak upper trough axis will move across Colorado through the day Saturday with northwesterly flow aloft behind it by afternoon. For temperatures, Saturday's highs look to be 2-4 C warmer than this afternoon's. Exiting weak upper level trof on Saturday night over far Eastern Colorado may still kick of a few showers during the evening hours. QG fields showing decent downward forcing behind the trof Saturday night with clearing skies.
415 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low moving east over the Northern Plains. A cold front extends south from the closed low across the plains. Tonight the clear weather will continue until the overnight hours when an upper level short wave trough will be develop over East Central Colorado. Am not very optimistic for rainfall due to the weak lift associated with the short wave trough. Am expecting storms to develop along the surface feature as the short wave trough deepens overhead. Storm activity will increase during the late afternoon as the short wave trough continues to deepen overhead and instability increases.
/ISSUED / Low pressure in the Gulf has resulted in quite a bit of convection well offshore, but also on the edge of the 60 mile marine zones. In association with this low, precipitable water is moving back towards and over 2 inches, so isolated to scattered showers and storms should still be expected today. /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016/ Precip coverage has been gradually increasing offshore in association with a surface trof situated off the Tx coast. Majority of rain/storms should taper off by early evening w/ the loss of heating - though there could be a couple lingering cells around for the start of some of the high school football games. Coastal trof should wash out on Saturday.
600 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Surface map at 2 pm had a cold front extending from central Upper Michigan through central WI. Broken band of showers/thunderstorms ongoing along this cold front. Area will be in between departing cold front and mid-level closed low approaching from the Northern Plains. but stratus circulating around the aforementioned closed low and winds staying in the 5- 10mph range should hold off fog formation. closed low will be filling as it tracks into Ontario. A ridge of high pressure drifts across the region Saturday night for mostly clear skies. to the lower 50s elsewhere.
243 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Current satellite loop shows some fair weather CU developing across the area under the large high pressure ridge nosing down the eastern seaboard. Moisture does increase slightly Sat as ridge begins to break down tonight allowing the main axis of moisture now over the MS/LA/AR area to move east. Will keep an eye on this closely because if the ridge breaks down faster than expected we could see precip move into western portions of the state late Sat afternoon/evening.
425 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 This afternoon very little convection had developed in association with an inverted trough shifting West across the Gulf Coast. Weak high pressure was squeezed between broad upper level trough of low pressure trailing from parent closed low over the Upper Mid-West and the Gulf system. A cold front had moved South and extended across parts of Kansas, Western Oklahoma, and into the Pan Handle of Texas.
133 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will extend from off the New England coast southwest through the Middle Atlantic states, including NC through Saturday. A cold front will approach from the NW late in the weekend. The ridge will extend from off New England SW into SC/GA and only slowly weaken by Saturday night. However, if stratus linger in some areas longer than expected, readings will be a bit cooler than current thinking.
Out on the eastern and southern edges of the cwa, though, where there's been more sun than clouds, temperatures have been able to warm into the low to mid 70s. Within the past hour, there has also been a small uptick in convective coverage across the cwa as the primary upper vort max within this upper level low pressure area continues to spin eastward over the cwa. As such, numerical guidance has an area of cooler low 40s-type readings for lows across portions of central South Dakota, with higher values further east where low clouds are expected to hang on pretty much the entire night.
Isallobaric surface pressure analysis shows trending Height Falls/Pressure Drops in the High Plains shifting eastward, as models track our next storm system into/across the Great Lakes tonight-Saturday.
242 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure moves to our east tonight, then a cold front slowly moves through the region this weekend.
314 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) The NAM and GFS models both close an upper low off the southern California/northern Baja coast overnight while an upper high builds over southern Texas. As the upper high over southern Texas builds further northward and over the southern portions of the CWA during the day on Saturday,the best chance of rainfall will be relegated to the northern half of the forecast area. Will not see much change in the highs and lows over the area with morning lows in the upper 60s to around 70 and the afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark.
233 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Satellite pix depict area of low pressure spinning across the Dakotas early this afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface northwest winds have turned gusty across the high plains.
At 00z Wednesday a 500mb trough and a 700mb to 500mb deformation zone extended from southern Nebraska into eastern Colorado. At the surface an area of high pressure was located across Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Precip chances will persist tonight into Wednesday regardless of an upper level ridge of high pressure moving out of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Lows are expected back down into the 60s(F) across much of the area with the lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Depending on wetter ground and increased cloud cover, highs are only expected to reach the 70s(F) in some locations Wednesday afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) possible in south central Kansas.
A generally light to moderate northeast to east wind flow is expected today and tonight as a high pressure ridge over the area breaks down and the strengthening tropical system begins to lift north and then northeast across the eastern Gulf. high temperatures today in the low to mid 90s interior. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s at the coast.
428 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 (Today and Tonight) The upper high currently centered over Oklahoma, will expand southwest across the area today. Subsidence associated with the high will not be overly strong and with a moist and unstable airmass in place, isolated to widely scattered showers an a few thunderstorms are expected to develop once again. Will keep POPs on the low side though, ranging from 20 percent across far eastern counties to 30 percent elsewhere.
422 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016 The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure in position over the Great Basin and Rocky mountain states this morning. Mostly clear skies are being reported around the area this morning beneath the ridge of high pressure. All three models maintain a ridge of high pressure over the forecast area through Thursday. The Pacific closed low will move onshore over Washington by Thursday as moist southwest flow increases over the region.
342 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 WV imagery this morning revealing a well amplified upper ridge extending nwd from the nrn Rockies into wrn Canada. obs were depicting a cold front arcing from the Dakotas to nrn IA to the wrn Great Lakes. Going highs temps still look reasonable with near normal values in the low 80s today/Thur/Fri. ECM/GFS/CMC advertise pcpn making a return to the central plains in response to upper level ridge axis shift east with several impulses ejecting out of the swrn conus.
A trough will dip across the eastern United States late Wednesday night and early Thursday which will guide TD-9 on a northward track.
An upper low in the Gulf of Alaska will drop into the trough over the Pacific coast. A short wave lifting out of the Pacific trough will help trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Central Mountains this afternoon.
400 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will cross the area today, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the front travels south of the region tonight, high pressure and a dry airmass will build in through the weekend.
With sharp upper level ridging moving across our region bringing general subsidence and low rh air, expect little or no cloud cover through the period along with dry conditions. The extended will be dominated by an upper trof that slowly progresses from the Pacific Northwest into the central CONUS.
An upper low was just off the lower Texas coast while an upper level ridge centered over the mid Mississippi Valley stretched across the northern part of the state. The high resolution models then bring isolated showers and thunderstorms back into the picture mainly after 2 PM this afternoon. Over the next few days the model solutions show the upper low over the lower Texas coast shearing out and moving south as the upper level ridge recenters itself over the plains and over the central and western parts of the state. The developing northerly flow at the surface and aloft will help push a backdoor cold front southward through the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
315 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Deep moisture axis (PW values up to 2 inches) early this morning ahead of the weak cold front has been sufficient to generate numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms in the M-59/I-69 corridors with some right entrance forcing, which will be ending shortly, and thus expecting majority of the activity to be over around 12z. At very least, would expect skies to become mostly cloudy during Thursday, holding maxes in the low to mid 70s.
111 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016 The remnants of the closed mid/upper low (now weakened)are over northeastern Colorado, with weak troughing in place across our CWA. Precip this afternoon-Tonight: Showers/thunderstorms are in the process of increasing in coverage with steepening lapse rates beneath h7/h5 trough. This is due to troughing in the western CONUS and ridging in the eastern CONUS (excluding regions impacted by the tropical storm/depression).
Dry conditions tonight and Thursday as flow aloft shifts from southwest to south as a long wave trough moves into the west coast. Temperatures Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than today.
A cold front will cause temperatures to drop 10 to 15 degrees across the much of the state over the weekend. Thunderstorm threat moves eastward into far eastern NV Thursday as Pacific trough moves a bit farther inland and markedly drier air intrudes into western and central NV.
Temps will be cooler over the whole area this afternoon due to cloud cover and northerly winds. Lows tonight will also be cooler across the area, with northerly winds.
Changes are on the horizon heading into late week as a weak cold front moves into the area, while TD 9 passes safely south and east of us. The forecast for today and tonight is largely a persistence one as very weak ridging continues to extend across the area. Meanwhile, a weak surface front will push southward across the Midwest today ahead of a burgeoning East Coast mid/upper trough. Latest model track guidance remains in reasonable harmony, indicating the system will begin moving north northeastward today ahead of the previously mentioned mid/upper trough.
235 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The upper level high that was centered over the area for the past few days has shifted westward and is centered over the Tulsa OK area. This upper high will continue to shift further westward today as a weak upper level wave swings down toward us from the north. Given the high PW values, any of the storms that form will be capable of heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding, although mid level lapse rates are rather weak.
333 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016 Upper ridging continues across the central CONUS with the main axis sitting across the High Plains. while an upper trough/low is moving into the PacNW.
140 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and Wednesday followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday night.
234 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 High pressure aloft will slowly weaken through Thursday with slow cooling.
1107 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will dominate the weather pattern in the short term. High pressure will shift slightly east as a closed low impacts the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. The Pacific closed low will move onshore over Washington by Thursday as moist southwest flow increases over the region.
An upper trough will bring unseasonably cool temperatures across the interior through the work week while coastal areas can see a mix of sun and clouds each afternoon. Coastal cloudiness should persist over the next several days but with the presence of the upper trough there will be a better chance for clouds to scatter out more quickly each afternoon. Unseasonably cool inland temperatures will otherwise persist through the second half of the week as the broad upper trough ushers in a colder airmass over the Pacific Northwest.
427 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are again possible today as a cold front drops southward through the region. Cooler and noticeably less humid air will filter in for Thursday and persist through the weekend.
High pressure will then build in from the upper midwest with cooler weather conditions for the end of the week and into the weekend. Orographic affects and unstable air pooling ahead of the front will keep the best chance for thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge. Expect lows tonight in the mid/upper 60s east of the Blue Ridge with low/mid 60s west.
Center of the upper ridge has moved to the Rockies with a trof digging through the Great Lakes. Main precipitation threat over the next couple of days will primarily be to the coastal waters, although a few showers or thunderstorms could possibly reach the lower portions of Plaquemines, Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes.
Coverage of thunderstorms will increase even further on Wednesday as a cold front slides south through the Ozarks. High temperatures will be cooler with the passing front and expected coverage of thunderstorms. Highs will generally be in the lower to middle 80s. Fabulous late summer weather is then expected to end the week as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Forcing for the storms will end by late afternoon or early evening as high pressure begins to slowly nose its way southward into the area.
642 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will cross the area today, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the front travels south of the region tonight, high pressure and a dry airmass will build in through the weekend.
/Issued 356 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/ A south to southwest flow aloft between an upper low over Colorado and an upper ridge over the southeast U.
353 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will cross the region late today and tonight.
A broad upper level trough over the West Coast will remain in place through late week and result in dry weather conditions along with temperatures below seasonal averages.
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. A cooler pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. A post frontal trough could spark a few showers tonight, so held on to PoPs just a bit longer then previous forecast.
Gusty winds right behind the cold front that is pushing south out of southern WI will begin to lower by daybreak. A weak short wave trough currently seen on water vapor imagery over northern Minnesota is forecast to drop across the state this afternoon. However, strong subsidence inversion behind the afternoon short wave trough on forecast soundings limits cloud depth and pcpn chances, so no POPs for now. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s inland, to around 60 lakeside, with a fall-like warmer onshore flow.
on the northern periphery of an elongated upper low over Colorado. An upper high will build over the region Wednesday into Thursday boding for warm and mainly dry weather across the CWA.
450 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Conditions remain calm and clear as of 3am, with high pressure still in general control of eastern KY. A weak cold front is currently slowly pushing southeast across central IN and north central OH. The cold front will continue on its slow southward path across the state tonight and into Thursday morning. This will keep isolated to scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast overnight and into the morning tomorrow, with chances lingering in the higher terrain throughout the day due to upslope flow and closer proximity to the exiting system. This will work to pull in much cooler air into the region, especially post frontal when the pull of northerly air will be deeper.
Over the next couple days, mid to upper level ridging is expected to build north from Mexico into TX while light NE surface to 850 mb winds act to slowly dry out atmospheric moisture levels over South Central TX.
115 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move across the commonwealth late today through early Thursday.
Synoptically this morning, the upper ridge continues to show signs of further deterioration. Meanwhile, TD 09 is still expected to start translating northeastward and an upper trough will begin to descended into the southeastern states. Later this afternoon they will collide with northerly to northwesterly winds associated with this upper trough later this afternoon, creating a convergence zone capable for producing isolated storms. Today's highs will remain in the low 90s and tonight's lows will again hover around the mid to low 70s. A significant trough will slide south and this will be the forcing that will finally kick the tropical system inland and across the far southeast before reaching the Atlantic Ocean. Two, how much moisture will be available for the trough to tap into with the system in the Gulf of Mexico.
returning high temps in the 90s across the lower elevations. Thursday looks to be sightly cooler.
Models this morning appear to be in decent agreement with the upper level trough/deformation zone slowly sliding into western Kansas today. This will be near a cold front that will be approaching the area from the northwest during the afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated today but given the high precipitable water and tropical feed still lingering across the Southern and Central Plains these storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall once again. The cold front will move into southwest Kansas overnight as the upper level trough crosses southwest Kansas. Precipitation chances are expected to taper off from northeast to southwest as this cold front and upper level wave passes.
624 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are again possible today as a cold front drops southward through the region. Cooler and noticeably less humid air will filter in for Thursday and persist through the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure currently over the Great Basin will shift east today. An upper level trough of low pressure will move across the region this weekend.
An upper ridge will continue to build over Eastern Montana and Saskatchewan today. Lee trough begins to strengthen today over Central Montana which will bring breezy southeast winds to the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper ridge moves to the Montana/Dakota border tonight while lee side trough moves to near Havre and Lewistown. The upper ridge moves to the Dakotas on Thursday and the upper trough/low moves inland into British Columbia and Pacific NW. Hot summerlike temperatures will continue with thermal ridge in place.
551 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move across the commonwealth late today through early Thursday.
409 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 Despite the initially warm/humid start this morning, a cold front is on track to move through the region today and ultimately bring an eagerly anticipated cooler/drier air mass into the region tonight. Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop near and ahead of the front today, especially during the afternoon when an upper trough will be moving across the area. Pcpn will end with fropa, and a much cooler and drier air mass then spreads into the region tonight. Overnight lows will be around 10 degrees cooler than last night. Kanofsky Expect cooler and drier post-frontal conditions for Thu, Fri, and probably most of Sat.
451 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move across the commonwealth late today through early Thursday.
358 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move south across the area today.
H5 troughing developing over the Great Lakes and New england will push a cold front through the area Thursday, which will be the day with the best areal coverage of precip.
611 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will cross the region late today and tonight.