Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1234 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
725 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE UPR LOW/TROF. AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THOUGH SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPR TROF AXIS MOVES E OF THE AREA SAT MRNG. BUILDING RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
/issued 226 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016/ The cold front and outflow boundary associated with last night's storms has made it to the Rio Grande Valley, with cooler air filtering into the region from the north. Highs this afternoon are on target to reach the middle 70s north to the lower 90s across the Rio Grande Valley. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from the eastern Permian Basin down through the Big Bend Area, though the best chance looks to be across the Lower Trans Pecos and higher terrain along the Rio Grande in the vicinity of the diffuse boundary. On Friday, brief ridging will develop over the region, with near normal temperatures expected as winds veer around to the southeast.
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM ELD TO SHV TO LFK.
LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SE OVER AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND E. WINDS WILL BE SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR/DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
1017 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 00Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT SHOULD TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BECOME SATURATED IN LOWER LEVELS. WITH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA HAVING THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
610 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD 20% POPS TO SW AR AND NE TX AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TOWARDS THE I-30 CORRIDOR. /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016/ WV IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN. WILL CONTINUE DIVING DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AND FORCE IT THROUGH OUR REGION.
1002 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION TODAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
748 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SHOWERS INTO NY AND PA TONIGHT, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
504 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016 UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND MOST MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. WITH 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY.
746 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH NW WI. A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. 925-850 MB MOIST LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BUT COLDEST VALUES IN THE INTL FALLS AREA WITH 20S WHILE REST OF THE AREA STAYS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF SUN.
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRED, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
The upper level low, clearly seen in water vapor loop over central Iowa this morning, moved into southern IA/northern MO this afternoon. This low will move into western IL by 00Z this evening and into central IL later tonight. we will continue to see the chances for showers and some thunderstorms through tonight, as the main trough pivots over our region and better moisture becomes available. Freezing levels are pretty low, so some of the storms could produce some hail. as lingering moisture interacts with the departing upper low to produce some showers. The effects of this upper low will finally get out of the region Friday night.
858 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
INCREASED WINDS AND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FT. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
1017 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TOWARD THE REGION. SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
PLAN ON MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY THEN WE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
930 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
FREEZING LEVEL AT 12K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT 23K FEET. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM IOWA THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH MOVES EAST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT ALSO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE OVER AR AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO NW AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SE OVER AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND E. WINDS WILL BE SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR/DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
707 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION TODAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
631 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 925-850 MB MOIST LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BUT COLDEST VALUES IN THE INTL FALLS AREA WITH 20S WHILE REST OF THE AREA STAYS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF SUN.
STUMPF A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN TN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH BETWEEN 06-12Z DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION.
A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID- STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THIS WEEKEND'S FORECAST LOOKS GREAT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
1033 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 CURRENTLY - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS GENERATING FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SHORT TERM UPDATE - MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CELL SHIFTS SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS GENERATING FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. 07 INCHES ON FEBRUARY 6TH AND THE HIGHEST RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR SO FAR WAS 1.
HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DENVER CYCLONE FORMATION TOMORROW MORNING JUST NORTH OF DENVER. UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS. WITH CAPES OF 300 J/KG OR LESS, WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SPINNING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH ISOLATED UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.
The temperature forecast leans on the warmer ECS guidance plus bias correction for highs in the upper 70s east to mid 80s west. A Canadian cold front. Very dry air would remain in place across Western Nebraska supporting lows in the lower 40s. A cold front will be pushing across the northwestern Sandhills early Tuesday. Will maintain the highest pops in this area with lesser chances elsewhere.
High pressure over the eastern third of the United States will hold through much of the week, before eroding late in the week heading into the weekend.
Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over Michigan and cold front over the Dakotas. Warmer air advects into the forecast area today and highs will climb into the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Dry air and high pres ridging sw over the area will keep VFR conditions in place with nothing more than a few high clouds streaming acrs the region. Lt N-NE winds will gradually shift SEly this aftn as the high moves further east. An upper level ridge is located across the Northern Gulf coast with a short wave moving out of the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Some high level clouds are moving with the short wave over top of the upper ridge. Some light shower activity may develop late tonight and early Tuesday over the coastal waters into lower Southeast Texas with warm air and moisture advection, as the high moves off to the east. The low level southeast flow will help warm temperatures up with slightly above seasonable temperatures and a more humid air mass through the week.
High pressure aloft will bring dry weather the next few days.
As ridging aloft flattens over the region during the next 48 hours, high pressure at the surface will continue to bring quiet weather to the forecast area through at least Tuesday night as it gradually shifts east of the region. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 50s.
1123 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure building down from Canada will bring cooler air to New York and Pennsylvania today through Tuesday morning.
At 915 am temps arnd the cwa were mainly in the lower 60s with dewpoints in the mid 40s. The flow pattern across the region will also turn toward the sw, as an upper trough axis drops into the nrn/mid Plains states Tue into Wed. The low level flow however is still not xpcted to be strong enough to overcome the cooler/drier air in place, with another seasonably cool night in the mid/upper 40s xpcted Tue night. The upper pattern across the greater North American was taking a more zonal configuration, but still hinting at a troughing west and ridging east setup. Upper blocking across the north Pacific and sort of a split flow pattern should keep the primary weather systems well to our north and west - at least for the work week.
Still looks like there should be some mountain showers as the lead trough passes later tonight. Mdls sounding show good instability in the afternoon with CAPES of 200-300 j/kg in the high country and around 500 J/kg across the northeast plains of CO. The mdls swing the next trough axis to the north of CO Tuesday night with its associated cold front pushing across northeastern CO Tuesday around 06z.
Expect temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 50s under partly cloudy skies. Precipitation chances will start to increase very late Tuesday night, as showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of an approaching cold front.
Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving over Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas. Ahead of this trough was a compact area of storms over the Oklahoma Panhandle. A short wave ridge will move over the area today, and the environment will be too dry to support more than a few clouds. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday due to warmer air advecting north into the area. Tonight a short wave trough will move over the area during the overnight hours. Dew points increase above 600mb as the short wave trough moves through. Tuesday a cold front will stall over the northern part of the area as an upper level long wave trough approaches the Tri-State Area. As the long wave trough approaches, numerous smaller scale troughs will move over the area.
640 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2016 A few spots right along the trough axis, currently across the central CWA, have gone calm in winds and temps have dropped down to the upper 30s. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through today and tonight as a positively tilted trough digs into the Northern Rockies. Tonight, the cold front will push the rest of the way through the CWA.
918 AM MDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Current forecasts in good shape with slightly warmer temperatures expected today. Still looks like there should be some mountain showers as the lead trough passes later tonight. Mdls sounding show good instability in the afternoon with CAPES of 200-300 j/kg in the high country and around 500 J/kg across the northeast plains of CO. The mdls swing the next trough axis to the north of CO Tuesday night with its associated cold front pushing across northeastern CO Tuesday around 06z.
With the very dry airmass in place, temperatures will actually feel a few degrees cooler.
Winds will generally be from a southerly direction due to a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 80s with the exception of central Kansas where highs look to only reach into the upper 70s.
Otherwise, skies will begin to clear from west to east today with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The timing of the cold front mid day Wed has changed very little.
Temperatures overall will be slightly cooler today ranging from the mid 80s west to upper 70s east. The upper level flow begins to switch to a southwest direction ahead of the next trough. Overnight, leaned toward the lower side of the split guidance as the airmass and ground conditions remain very dry.
945 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 High pressure keeps dry weather going through mid weak.
930 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2016 At 915 am temps arnd the cwa were mainly in the lower 60s with dewpoints in the mid 40s. The flow pattern across the region will also turn toward the sw, as an upper trough axis drops into the nrn/mid Plains states Tue into Wed. The low level flow however is still not xpcted to be strong enough to overcome the cooler/drier air in place, with another seasonably cool night in the mid/upper 40s xpcted Tue night. The upper pattern across the greater North American was taking a more zonal configuration, but still hinting at a troughing west and ridging east setup. Upper blocking across the north Pacific and sort of a split flow pattern should keep the primary weather systems well to our north and west - at least for the work week.
730 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure over southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes will move east to New England by Tuesday.
940 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Main challenge through the day will be timing of slow moving cold front and related temperatures across the FA. A few spots right along the trough axis, currently across the central CWA, have gone calm in winds and temps have dropped down to the upper 30s. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through today and tonight as a positively tilted trough digs into the Northern Rockies. Tonight, the cold front will push the rest of the way through the CWA.
1205 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Low pressure south of the Maritimes will move away to the east today while high pressure builds in from the west.
The surface pressure gradients were weakening offshore from NV, but holding weak onshore to the lower deserts.
Southerly winds will be on the increase today with another bump in afternoon temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s.
The lower 1- 3km forcing does increase slightly late, but that is weak and seems to be more driven by warm advection ahead of the maturing Pacific NW/Canadian long wave trough.
A cold front that stalled over Washington state yesterday evening has now pushed east and south through the region. Meanwhile the southern end of the cold front is currently stalled across central and east-central Oregon.
Sent an update this morning to basically bring in the latest near and short term model consensus for the precipitation today associated with the cold front.
Cooler and drier air continues to move into the area this morning as high pressure builds from the north with ridging aloft. The high pressure center will gradually shift east through Tuesday as ridging remains across the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s north, and in the lower 60s to mid 60s inland to upper 60s to near 70 coastal for central and southern areas.
As a weak short wave trough, over the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas early this morning, moves to the northeast today, a weak mid level ridge will remain over south Texas. A weak trough of low pressure over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will move into the coastal waters late tonight and inland during the afternoon Tuesday.
/issued 344 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2016/ One final round of lift with an upper trough emerging across the southern High Plains was supporting widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Panhandles through the southwest South Plains and southeast New Mexico as of 0740Z. The deep-layer moisture and lift will be further fleeting as the upper trough translates steadily east-northeastward toward the western Great Lakes by 12Z Tuesday. The southerly flow and a return of abundant sunshine will boost temperatures back above average with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
1047 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather through mid week.
Cold front will approach from the northwest late tonight. The strong cold front will continue to push southeast across the region Tuesday/Tuesday night.
1150 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will dominate through midweek. A dry cold front will push through the region late in the week. High pressure will return for the weekend. An h5 ridge axis will also be near the area through the period. A near repeat of Monday is expected with high pressure remaining in control.
High temperatures today forecast to climb into the lower 80s with lows in the 50s tonight.
1022 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 Early visible photographs show skies are mostly sunny with temperatures in the lower 80s along with comfortable dewpoint readings in the mid to upper 60s along the island chain. Surface wise, an expansive continental region of high pressure is covering the entire east central United States with a ridge nosing down the Sunshine State and into our area.
High pressure, both at the surface and aloft will prevail across the region through tonight. Moderate northeasterly winds this morning will become more light easterly this afternoon and early this afternoon and tonight as gradient weakens with high pressure building in from the north and east. Highs today generally in the lower 80s across the entire region.
826 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather through mid week.
The Lower Ohio Valley is under ridging aloft as well as at the surface. Cloud cover will be on the increase today however as that ridging slides eastward.
On Tuesday should have mild wx as ridge stretches across the southern tier of states from the Pacific to the Atlantic with zonal flow across it. Will have a weak trough move along the US/Mex border and into the area late in the week otherwise the upper pattern looks quiet. Cloud cover should not hang around too long today and expect more sun today and warmer temps. The regional high temperature yesterday was 91 degrees at Rio Grande Village and the low was 48 at the Guadalupe Mountains Bowl.
However, model soundings show a decent amount of dry air in the low levels that will need to be overcome, so all of this precipitation may not be reaching the ground initially. An increased pressure gradient will be present over the CWA today as it's wedged between high pressure to the east and low pressure across the High Plains. Despite the breezy southerly winds (primarily across north central KS), the increased low/mid level cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit cooler with highs in the low 70s. However, the persistent southerly flow should help to keep lows in the low/mid 50s.
A slow moving cold front has pushed into Baker county and the west-central Idaho mountains this morning. It will get a bit further south before stalling this afternoon across northern Harney and Malheur county, the Lower Treasure valley and Weiser River basin, and northern Boise mountains. This band of showers is expected to weaken and diminish in areal coverage as it moves south and cooler and drier air filters in behind the front. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with decreasing clouds as dry northwesterly flow behind the front moves into the area. Drier air behind the passing cold front will move into the region from the north as a strong ridge currently over Alaska expands across SE Alaska to the Pacific Northwest.
711 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 Aviation Canadian high pressure moving off to the east of Michigan will bring mostly sunny skies to the area today with highs in the mid 60s. The next Canadian cold front will bring increasingly strong southerly winds and warmer temperatures Tuesday.
Winds at the surface will become more southwesterly through the day resulting in some weak downslope flow keeping Mondays forecast warm and dry with highs back in the low 80s. A southern stream trough off the Baja CA coast will move onshore going into Tuesday while a northern stream trough deepens and moves from the Pac NW out over the northern Plains. Forcing will be minimal but moisture, CAPE and shear will be supportive of a strong storm if the convective temperature is reached out ahead of an advancing surface cold front.
1045 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 A dry airmass will remain in place across the region through mid week as high pressure slowly shifts off to the east.
1218 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 High pressure over southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes will move east to New England by Tuesday.
Skies are mostly clear and winds are light and this has allowed temperatures to drop into the mid 40s Hill Country to the lower 60s along the Rio Grande. On Tuesday, the models develop a coastal trough early, then move this feature inland into the coastal plains in the afternoon. This trough along with daytime heating should help develop some isolated showers and thunderstorms for areas generally east of the Highway 77 corridor in the afternoon.
Deep ridging from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes Region will provide a dry cool northeasterly flow.