Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 High pressure anchored over western Minnesota will allow for temperatures to plunge across far eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this evening/overnight, while a tighter pressure gradient exists across the rest of the forecast area - about 10mb across the state. Mild level warm advection cloud cover could generate some light QPF, however we initially will see a dry layer between that and the low level stratus. Despite the low chance for any measurable precipitation, soundings suggest the main P-type as rain, with sub-freezing surface temperatures.
Temp trends have fallen to/just below the freezing mark in many spots, and these readings will continue to fall into the 20s heading into the overnight hrs. Cold northwest flow aloft will persist through Wednesday with high pressure moving to along the MS River by afternoon.
1049 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 An upper level low will move from the Great Lakes to northern New England through Wednesday. The upper low will exit northeast into the Canadian maritimes Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley.
A warming trend gets under way for Wed and especially for Thu as mid level flow becomes more westerly with more downslope flow, with southerly surface winds as the lee side troughing increases. Ketcham After the cooldown on Fri, rising heights/increasing thickness is progged across the plains over the weekend as a mid/upper ridge moves eastward across the area.
Cyclonic flow is firmly in control of the upper levels as the deep upper level low continues to push off to the east. There is some moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but that will move out of the area this evening as high pressure builds in west of Wisconsin. Strato cu associated with that moisture in the lower levels continues to push south into the area this afternoon, but should diminish as we lose diurnal heating. Given the fresh snowpack and mostly clear skies in the early morning hours, chose to go cooler than the blended guidance for lows tonight. Forecast is more in line with the raw model output and close to the lows we saw last night.
Take whatever necessary precautions to prepare crops for the next 2 nights of freezing temperatures. The mid level trough over the eastern U.
High pressure is expected across the area for the middle parts of the week.
Warm air advection extends into the lower levels Wednesday with 850mb temps around 12C warmer than today. Still have some cold air near the surface to overcome so highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s remain on track.
Snow cover will be slow to leave with low temps dropping below freezing many nights.
Temperatures around the forecast area are already starting to drop in the wake of the recent cold front passage, and the forecast is on track for lows dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s over the Nature Coast tonight, and 40s and low 50s from Tampa Bay south. High pressure will gradually build into the Gulf from the north as the strong area of low pressure lifts out to the northeast. Winds over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to run around 20 knots through Wednesday morning, then will gradually subside through the rest of the week as the area of high pressure takes control of the region.
Lows are expected to bottom out in the teens and 20s, and the combination of very cold temperatures and the prolonged period below freezing will damage any exposed blooms across our forecast area. A surge of midlevel stratus currently over eastern MT will stream into the region by tomorrow morning, dampening temperature rises despite gradually increasing temperatures aloft, but highs may still make it to the low 40s with returning southeasterly flow.
Skies will be clearing and temperatures falling tonight, with freezing or just below overnight min temps expected generally north of the Highway 84 corridor.
657 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Lingering flurries or light snow showers will affect areas primarily east of Interstate 55 through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours, in response to a mid-level short wave rotating through the southern periphery of an upper low over the western Great Lakes region. Despite sunshine, highs will be chilly for mid- March, only reaching the low-mid 30's.
Progressive upper pattern expected with the upper trough (currently over the ERN CONUS) and the upper ridge (currently over the WRN CONUS) moving EWD during the period.
A deep upper trough is currently entrenched across the eastern CONUS, with the pattern in the Ohio Valley characterized by northwest flow and cold air advection. The low DGZ becomes saturated with better lift, especially from 00-03z this evening. Deep, northwest flow continues between ridging to the west and the strong storm system over New England.
515 PM PDT Tue Mar 14 2017 update for new aviation discussion High pressure and offshore flow will bring partly cloudy skies and well above normal temperatures this week, especially inland. The coast will have night and morning low clouds and fog with cooler temperatures. Dry weather with gradually cooler temperatures can be expected this weekend.
Overnight lows in the low/mid 20s remain on track, necessitating the area wide Freeze Warning.
2 pm temperatures ranged from the lower 20s to around 30. Tonight: Skies will be clear as high pressure ridge pushes across Iowa, with the ridge axis still west of the dvn cwa by 7 am. Wednesday: Sunny skies again expected with the high pressure ridge over the cwa. Quiet and cold conditions will be seen Wednesday night as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
Still a patch of low clouds with ceilings around 3-5 kft upstream across AL/GA associated with the 850 mb trough axis. Trailing the passage of the 850 mb trough. Winds will gradually relax below SCA tomorrow afternoon as high pressure settles over the lower MS River Valley and the low pressure gradient relaxes.
Reinforcing dry cold front will move through the forecast area overnight as low level WNW winds switch to the NW-NNW by morning. Lows will range from the lower 40s from Leesburg to Deland and Daytona Beach to the upper 40s to around 50 along the Martin county coast.
738 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cold and snow showers through Wednesday. Upper trough pivoting over the forecast area overnight will keep strong northwestrly flow and cold advection in place with continued periodic snow showers. Overall snow accumulations will be muted with drier air moving in at lower levels and enhancement in the ridges will be muted as temperatures aloft become too cold for efficient snow production. Rates may pick up slightly around daybreak in the ridges with the upper low progged to be east of the region at that time and the temperature profile begins to shift warmer back into ideal temperatures for snow growth. West of the ridges. Wind chill values will be in the low single digits across much of the region.
Did a blend of last night's lows together with the cooler end of guidance to make tonights temperature forecast. On Wednesday winds will gradually become southerly, so have temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than today. This means warmer than normal temperatures for areas over the Rockies, and into the Plains. But cooler than normal for the eastern seaboard.
The ridge axis will continue advancing through the region Wednesday, keeping skies mostly sunny. Due to this southerly flow, high temperatures Wednesday should rise into the lower to mid 30s across the area. Surface and upper level ridging moves east of the forecast area Wednesday night.
Lows expected to be a bit warmer than last night especially towards the west where better mixing will be ongoing with values around 10 to 14F. Increasing clouds from west to east during the day with max temps into the low to mid 30s, higher over snow free areas.
Overnight lows expected to range from the lower 40s over higher elevations of the Davis Mountains, to 50s along the Rio Grande. Upper trough across the east coast will continue to move eastward, with an upper ridge building in over west Texas.
Thus, overnight lows should be in the low to mid 40s tonight. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer than what we are seeing today.
Otherwise, light winds will also continue tonight, and low temperatures around daybreak Wednesday averaging 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals - the higher values are forecast to occur from Tucson westward into the western deserts.
See highs around 50 southwest to the lower 30s east. Overall this will maintain a mild weather pattern but with several passages of pacific cold and warm fronts.
/00Z TAF/ Weak high pressure over the area will be moving east tomorrow.
1016 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cold and snow showers through Wednesday. Upper trough pivoting over the forecast area overnight will keep strong northwesterly flow and cold advection in place with continued periodic snow showers. Overall snow accumulations will be muted with drier air moving in at lower levels and enhancement in the ridges will be muted as temperatures aloft become too cold for efficient snow production. Rates may pick up slightly around daybreak in the ridges with the upper low progged to be east of the region at that time and the temperature profile begins to shift warmer back into ideal temperatures for snow growth. West of the ridges. Wind chill values will be in the low single digits across much of the region.
Westerly flow and warming mid level temps will keep mins on the mild side many locations, with readings at or above freezing over lower elevations east of the mountains. On Wednesday, upper ridge moves overhead with 700 mb thermal ridge pushing northward across the area. Ridge flattens slightly on Thu as energy moves through the nrn Rockies, but with deep mixing and wly flow continuing, another day of near record max temps looks likely.
Surface analysis shows warm front having nudged into wrn SD with temps reaching freezing generally south and west of a K2WX-KPHP line early this afternoon. Much warmer/drier air pushes into the cwfa Wednesday as thermal ridge moves into nern WY, with some 70 degree readings across nern WY into swrn SD.
This along with an increase in easterly winds, should help keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night. After morning lows in the upper 20s to around 40 degrees, temperatures have risen into the lower 50s east to the lower 70s west this afternoon under sunny skies. As some lee side troughing develops surface winds will veer around to the southeast during the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 50s northeast to the lower 70s west.
These clouds will hamper radiational cooling and keep low temperatures above freezing.
Otherwise, much colder air will continue to stream into the area from the n tonight, with temps falling below the freezing mark later this evening and then into the 20s after midnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect starting at 9 PM, with lows Wed morning xpcted to be mainly in the upper teens across srn mid TN to the lower 20s over nrn AL. Wind chill values will be in the lower/mid teens for most locations, although single digits are possible in srn TN into the higher elevations of NE AL. Cold northwest flow aloft will persist through Wednesday with high pressure moving to along the MS River by afternoon.
1218 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cold and snow showers through Wednesday. As lake induced troughing over Lake Huron is forcing a dominant band structure that is traversing Lake Erie and reenhancing downstream as it does so, one fairly coherent band is moving from just east of Cleveland toward Washington and the ridges of Fayette County at this time. Previous bands this evening have been dropping roughly an inch of snow per hour, except in the ridges, where near whiteout conditions at Seven Springs and on some of the Maryland DOT cams revealed more significant accumulations.
Also temperatures have already dropped into the 20s to about freezing already so already updated the Freeze Warning to start immediately with zone issuance.
842 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Have made some changes to the low temps in the east. High pressure anchored over western Minnesota will allow for temperatures to plunge across far eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this evening/overnight, while a tighter pressure gradient exists across the rest of the forecast area - about 10mb across the state. Mild level warm advection cloud cover could generate some light QPF, however we initially will see a dry layer between that and the low level stratus. Despite the low chance for any measurable precipitation, soundings suggest the main P-type as rain, with sub-freezing surface temperatures.
1033 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Very cold temperatures with below zero readings are the main impact in the short term as a high pressure sets in east of the CWA this evening. The low level moisture, on the other hand, is very limited. A quiet and less cooler day is on tap for Wednesday.
Look for patchy fog tonight followed by cooler temperatures on Wednesday, especially near the coast and across the North Bay, as a weak system pushes into northern California. For the rest of our region, warmer than normal conditions are widespread with many spots in the upper 60s to the upper 70s. With a few more hours of heating still to go, we should see some locations getting into the lower 80s. Rainfall looks less and less likely for our region -- it will mostly stay to the north -- however it will lead to cooler temperatures.
Winds will increase again aft 19Z Wednesday but trend lighter than today as high pressure crests over NM.
The temperature difference will be felt even more so in the early morning hours with wind chills in the low 40s across much of the area except Miami Dade metro areas where could see wind chills in the mid 50s. As ridge gradually builds across South Florida, drier and cooler air mass will continue to filter into the region with this northwest flow for the next several days. Tonight, temperatures will feel cooler with lows falling into the 50s for most areas, with some 40s interior.
631 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A vigorous upper level LOW was located over southeast Lower MI this afternoon but has far reaching influence west of the MS River valley. Loss of sunshine/diurnal influences and a strong cold Canadian HIGH pressure building in at the surface should result in widespread clearing across our region this evening with the possible exception for a few additional hours of the far eastern CWA where they will still be close enough to be influenced by the now further eastward- shifted lake effect snow band from Lake Michigan.
/19/ Tonight through Wednesday: Latest satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough over most of the CONUS. On the surface breezy northwest winds were noted as high pressure was building in from the west. Temperatures at mid afternoon ranged from around 40 north to the lower 50s southeast. For tonight expect skies to become mostly clear as high pressure builds into the region. Highs will range from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s south under northwest winds.
Tonight and Wednesday The main forecast problem will be on min temperatures tonight as the possibility exists of readings really dropping off as high pressure approaches from the west and the air mass aloft is still quite cold. The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed the intense low pressure (nor'easter) just off of Long Island. A ridge of high pressure extended from western Ontario south-southwest to the central Plains. We will still be looking at isolated snow showers or flurries this evening, before drier air from the high pressure begins to advect into the region and shuts everything down.
1155 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A vigorous upper level LOW was located over southeast Lower MI this afternoon but has far reaching influence west of the MS River valley. Loss of sunshine/diurnal influences and a strong cold Canadian HIGH pressure building in at the surface should result in widespread clearing across our region this evening with the possible exception for a few additional hours of the far eastern CWA where they will still be close enough to be influenced by the now further eastward- shifted lake effect snow band from Lake Michigan.
South to southeast winds of 5 to 10 KTs prevail tonight into morning, except a turn to east, perhaps northeast late tonight across the eastern Hill Country to along and east of I-35 where weak high pressure briefly builds in and then drifts off to the east by midday. Low-level easterly to southeasterly flow will continue overnight and bring in shallow moisture up the Rio Grande Valley and pool it against the higher terrain of the Plateau. Despite the clouds, temperatures will reach a few degrees warmer than today into the low and mid 70s.
532 PM MDT Tue Mar 14 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will move over the region tonight and Wednesday, continuing the generally clear sky and mild, above-normal temperatures. With rising heights and upper level temperatures, expect Wednesday to be a few degrees warmer than today. The ridge flattens Wednesday night as an upper level trough moves across the Pacific NW and suppresses the ridge to the southeast.
VFR conditions are generally expected at all TAF sites, but a brief period of MVFR CIGS will be possible through 10Z, with the highest confidence at KCSV.
1156 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 The big picture this afternoon puts the region under the influence of a 140 knot upper level jet streak diving toward western KY, between the massive East Coast snowstorm and a large ridge over the Western states. Chilly high pressure continues to nose through Iowa this afternoon, with east to southeast low-level flow back across most of eastern Nebraska. Still, a small opening for some of the light precipitation to be a sleet or light freezing rain, during the early morning hours. Still, highs should be much warmer than today, from mid to upper 30s across western Iowa, to readings perhaps closing on 50 degrees Albion to Fairbury. Winds will remain up somewhat on Wednesday night with lows likely warmer than readings this afternoon.
/issued 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017/ As the northern and northeastern parts of the country deal with a fairly powerful storm we have a tranquil period of weather developing over the next few days as high pressure shifts towards us in the wake of the aforementioned storm before settling just to our east over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
636 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Very cold temperatures with below zero readings are the main impact in the short term as a high pressure sets in east of the CWA this evening. The low level moisture, on the other hand, is very limited. A quiet and less cooler day is on tap for Wednesday.
This will keep the western edge of the cooler airmass in the eastern counties (mainly east of U283).
Freezing levels will lower to around 4000 feet MSL by sunrise. Beyond Sunday, winds and seas will become relatively calm for much of the week under high pressure and east winds, with a stronger system forecast to arrive by the weekend. Moderate to heavy precipitation continues ahead of the cold front that extends from Eureka California to Paisley Oregon at this time.
12Z models have come in with a slightly stronger short wave trough to cross the area as it deepens once it crosses the northern Rockies tonight.
While some strong winds will blow through the night the areal coverage is expected to decrease with the high wind warning expiring at 6 pm mst also.
High pressure situated across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon will shift eastward to the mid-Atlantic by morning. This will also help to moderate overnight lows which will be in the mid to upper 30s inland to the low to mid 40s along the coast. Any isolated spots that reach freezing would most likely be across the northwest portion of the CWA.
250 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 High pressure currently dominating the area will move off to the east as the next trough slowly moves eastward across the high plains.
129 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 High pressure will build east across the region today offering continued cold temperatures.
/Issued 627 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/ Regional observations this morning are showing most areas either at or already well below freezing and diminishing winds under clear skies should improve radiational cooling enough to support temps falling a few more degrees before sunrise this morning. Meanwhile, high pressure well to our east will still be nosed in across portions of north/central Georgia through the overnight hours.
The freezing level, between 5,000 and 6,000 feet, late this morning, is expected to lower to 4,000 to 5,000 feet through this evening. Beyond Sunday, winds and seas will become relatively calm for much of the week under high pressure and east winds, with a stronger system forecast to arrive by the weekend. Moderate to heavy precipitation continues ahead of the cold front that extends from Eureka California to Paisley Oregon at this time.
Pcpn decreased or ended in most areas earlier today as a cold front sagged esewd through our CWA. Dense fog has developed in the Upper Treasure Valley and is slowly expanding into the Lower Treasure Valley of Idaho.
1156 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 16z/10am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio River Valley. Surface data shows ridge of high pressure over western IL which will be east today as a system strengthens in the lee of the Rockies. By Sunday 12z, the main low pressure center will be into the western plains.
301 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 Several cold fronts are the focus for the forecast for the next 7 days. Unseasonably warm temperatures Today will quickly be replaced by cooler temperatures Sunday as another cold front sweeps across the Panhandles.
Northwesterly flow upstream of the trough axis will maintain generally dry conditions across the High Plains into the middle of the coming week. A series of cold fronts will bring airmasses with varying degrees of coolness southward through this time period with the first front forecast to move across the Panhandle Sunday, entering the northern South Plains late in the afternoon.
With cold high pressure extending from the Northern Plains into the northern Gulf Coast. For the remainder of today, expect a very pleasant day with highs ranging from near 60 degrees along the nature coast, to the low to mid 70s across central and southwestern Florida. This will allow rather substantial moistening in the low levels and expect clouds to gradually increase from southeast to northwest.
High pressure centered over Kentucky today will move east to the Atlantic coastline by midday Sunday. Southerly winds in the wake of the High will usher in relatively warmer temperatures and higher moisture for the second half of the weekend. While warmer than today, temperatures will only top out in the 40s, with the possible exception of a 50 degree reading around Lake Cumberland. Southerly winds could gust over 20 mph at times tomorrow afternoon thanks to the tight pressure gradient on the back side of the High, adding to the blustery feel of the day. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s, but thanks to the south winds, Sunday night's lows will remain above freezing, ranging from the mid 30s in southern Indiana to the mid 40s along the Tennessee border.
1042 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 16z/10am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio River Valley. Surface data shows ridge of high pressure over western IL which will be east today as a system strengthens in the lee of the Rockies. By Sunday 12z, the main low pressure center will be into the western plains.
Big question of the day is not if it will snow across our mountains over the next 36 hours, the question is how much and will the valleys get into the action? Latest model runs coming in slightly cooler this morning versus runs 24 hours ago although still too warm for the lowest valleys to get much more than a rain/snow mix. Valley amounts for the advised zones will be running in the 3 to 6 inch range with little to no accumulation for the lower valleys and across the south.