Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ RIDGING STILL HOLDING FIRM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 70 DEGREES OR IN THE LOWER 70S.
SFC RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP SFC WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E/SE. AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.
319 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ARE PROGGED TO RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 60S. TIMING THE MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. HOWEVER EVEN THE GFS IS QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OUT OF FCST.
THIS EARLY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE, WITH SEVERAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
1242 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS BROUGHT THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION (WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SPRINKLES) A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SO EVEN THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP A LARGE PORTION OF AREA MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREA.
/ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016/ A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING N GA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO S GA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE MID U.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE EASES FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUITABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOWER PROFILE. EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST.
532 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A RAPID CLRG TREND THIS MRNG. THOUGH A WEAK UPR TROF COULD BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WED N OF PIT. DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE RIDGES AT 06Z TAKING A BAND OF RAIN WITH IT.
Today a weak cold front will move across the region and start the process of slowly eroding the ridge that has brought us such nice weather the last several days. Clouds and off and on showers will make it feel much cooler than the sunny days of late.
631 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CLEARING THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.
243 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 It will take all night for high clouds to completely clear the PAH forecast area as a drier, cooler air mass sinks into the region on northerly winds.
1249 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA AS OF 0530Z. WITH THE LOWEST CIGS ON THE FRONT ITSELF BUT SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM N TO S. AS A SMALL SCALE COLD CORE LOW AT BASE OF TROUGH PROVIDES ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TODAY. MORE SUN EXPECTED OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REGION APPROACHES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO MINNESOTA. 850 WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO STATE THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE CLOUDS WITH MIXED PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. H850 SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE TO HELP RESTART SPRING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE REGION WILL PROVIDE COOLER READINGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BROAD AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHERN JET DOWNSTREAM OF A SW CONUS UPPER LOW. ATTENTION LATER TONIGHT INTO WED THEN TURNS TO THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW. COUPLED WITH A SHARPENING E-W ORIENTED H85 TROF AND DIVERGENT JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. THOUGH A SECOND BURST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE TROF AXIS PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
109 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR INDICATES 5H TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GLAKS AS OF 05Z. SFC COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED KBFD. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS BY DAWN AND TO AROUND 50 OVER LANCASTER CO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO BY 12Z. HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
Early this morning, widespread stratus has developed in wake of the surface cold front that moved through the area yesterday evening. Extensive cloud cover and a cooler airmass, will result in afternoon highs in the mid and upper 60s for much of the area, except across far southeast counties where some lower 70s are expected.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U. THE MAIN TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR THE TRI- CITIES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CHATTANOOGA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL SET THE TABLE FOR STORMY PATTERN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTH TX TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG HWY 90 AND PROGRESSING STEADILY SWD AT AROUND 20 MPH. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA SHOWS BEST INITIAL RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PROGRESS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE MODELS DEVELOP MOSTLY ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING TURNS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE TO THE NE LATE TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE BEST DEPICTED BY THE TX TECH WRF WHILE THE QPF SHOWN BY THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE RESULT OF TRAINING OF PROGRESSIVE CELL CLUSTERS. SHOULD A CONVECTIVE FOCUS FOLLOW THE LOWEST LEVEL OF CONVERGENCE.
358 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 TRUE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR A BIRMINGHAM TO VICKSBURG TO WACO LINE AT 3 AM. AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. DECOUPLED WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHTEST IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ENELY THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD WITHIN A SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN AND THIS RIDGING WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN AS A SLOW MOVING AND HIGH- AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.
WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
305 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 CURRENTLY WATCHING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS EARLY MORNING. AS WITH TYPICAL STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR NEW ORLEANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SWING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MSAS ANALYSES DEPICT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW. OWING TO THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/ UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PSN OF THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY/VERTICAL SHEAR.
WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
Patchy fog will not be out of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.
420 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAD BEGUN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. ANTICIPATING WHETHER SHOWERS WERE REACHING THE GROUND (PERHAPS ONLY VIRGA SOME AREAS WHERE THERE ARE RADAR ECHOES) AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. AROUND NOON TODAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
250 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 RAIN SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END ERLY THIS MORNING SE OF PIT AS A COLD FRONT EXITS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A RAPID CLRG TREND THIS MRNG. THOUGH A WEAK UPR TROF COULD BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WED N OF PIT. DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE RIDGES AT 06Z TAKING A BAND OF RAIN WITH IT.
Otherwise have blended the forecast with obs and current location of the cold front, roughly from KBWG to KFFT line. A cold front was moving SE through the area late this afternoon bringing with it showers and scattered t-storms. High temps on Tues will be limited to the 50s in the cooler airmass.
Temperatures should be slightly below normal today as the area remains under the influence of high pressure. this upper level low will be situated over northern Arkansas.
634 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CLEARING THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. NORTH TEXAS WILL RESIDE IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SEASONAL THOUGH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW.
ANTICIPATE LOWS TUE NIGHT TO BE WARMER. POSITION OF SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL SET UP A PERSISTENT SOUTH FETCH OF MOISTURE. -HOWERTON IT'LL BE VFR ACRS ALL AREAS THRU TUE NGT AS LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY TO THE WRN OH VALLEY.
146 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 COLD FRONT HEADS EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF WEEK. AS OF 0530Z COLD FRONT IS THROUGH HTS. RELIED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. CONSENSUS KEEPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SLOWLY BY TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA THIS PERIOD. LOWS WED NT LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST.
135 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL IN THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 40S DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NE OH/NW PA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY.
cooler for NW AR. An amplified blocking pattern is expected to evolve. with a deep trough to our west and an omega block to our east. A slow moving upper low will result in several periods of rain/storm chances.
322 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A VERY COOL. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S UNDER THE HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FULL SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHES EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE ONLY MARGINALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IT WILL LIKELY FEEL WARMER. LIGHT SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN EMERGING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENHANCED MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. WARMER AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY. DESPITE THE WARMER AIR.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST OF INDIANA BY WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS AND NAM SHOWS TODAY AND TOMORROW BEING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF NW FLOW ALOFT AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
Currently, temperature projections for sunrise might be a little shy of freezing.
323 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LAST NGT I WROTE ABT IT BEING 20 DEGS WARMER THAN THE PRVS NGT. AND NOW IT IS 20 DEGS WARMER THAN THAT! AT 2 AM AT THE OFFICE IT WAS 66. THIS MRNG MAY BE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY.
1244 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE AN INITIALLY QUIET DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A MAJOR SOUTHWEST TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING HIGH.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW THAT WAS COMING ONSHORE OVER S CA/N BAJA TODAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON WED AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST. AS THIS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THU/THU NIGHT.
352 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EDGE EAST AND SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST NEAR THE SONORA-ARIZONA BORDER NOT FAR SOUTH OF TUCSON. LATEST PROJECTIONS ALIGN WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS SUPPORTING VERY SLIGHT FILLING OF THIS LOW. A LOW LEVEL RELATIVE DRY PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE AREA WILL PEAK THIS MORNING ALREADY HAVING BROKEN UP SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH SEEM LIKELY SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NOT A BAD LITTLE SYSTEM ON THE WAY ALL THINGS CONSIDERED FROM A PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW FOLLOWS ITS CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK.
341 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
NRLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR THE SFC IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON MON. BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS THIS TUE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE PACNW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
336 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT EXITING CWA AND WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PCPN DURG THE DAYTIME. UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS TX PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT AND BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO NE TX. EXPECT THUNDER TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS AR WED INTO THUR.
THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS TEXAS FROM NACOGDOCHES TO ROUGHLY DEL RIO.
204 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CLEARING THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.
231 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR INDICATES 5H TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GLAKS AS OF 05Z. SFC COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED KBFD. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS BY DAWN AND TO AROUND 50 OVER LANCASTER CO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO BY 12Z. HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
Light showers have all but ended and moved away over our southeast counties of central KY as the surface cold front has moved through the forecast area. Expect a clear sky tonight with chilly morning lows Wednesday morning in the lower and mid 30s (except upper 30s in urban Louisville).
333 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING N GA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO S GA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE MID U.
A RIDGE WAS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY 12Z/WED. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL MOVE THRU 00Z-06Z TONIGHT BUT WITH NO NOTICEABLE WX. THIS HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z AND THEN INTO THE ERN USA/CANADA BY 12Z/WED.
THE GRADIENT WILL WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS EWD INTO NW AL. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC DIGS SOUTH. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
328 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANY WEAK UPPER WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS.
340 AM MST TUE APR 12 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY TODAY. WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
209 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND MOVE IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON HOW FAR THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY/COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA.
1209 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A KPSN /PALESTINE.
AS A SMALL SCALE COLD CORE LOW AT BASE OF TROUGH PROVIDES ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. OK STORMS FORMING ALONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT.
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHOWERY WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN RAISING MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 3-5 DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
126 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS TAKING ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
629 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY.