Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another cold front moves into the region mid to late morning Sunday, with winds becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.
Meanwhile sfc obs show low pressure developing over Deep South Texas which will add to the precip coverage/intensity later tonight.
With the exception of a double-barreled storm that moved through the CWA on the 7th and 8th and a moisture-laden cold frontal passage on the 18th, November, 2020 has been pathetically dry. Much of the snow that fell over the higher elevations of the Sierra earlier this month has since melted. A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control and keep skies mostly clear over the central California interior through Sunday with light winds, seasonably cool afternoons and frosty cold temperatures tonight and Sunday night.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): A cold front is currently making its way through Deep South Texas with cooler temperatures and northwesterly winds in its wake.
939 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected through Sunday under high pressure.
Sunny skies prevail across the Northwoods this afternoon thanks to surface ridging and dry air thru much of the column. around 10 degrees warmer than normal for today. However SW winds strengthening to 15 to 25 mph are making conditions feel cooler the actual air temps. then mid and high clouds will begin to increase overnight into Sunday morning as low pressure slides thru Lake Superior. Associated cold front will swing thru our CWA Sunday afternoon. at which time low level moisture will begin to increase and CAA will commence immediately behind the cold front. Low temps tonight will cool mainly into the low to mid 30s.
340 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure continue to develop over the lower Rio Grande Valley while weak high pressure resides from the OH Valley through the srn Plains. Expect to see pockets of heavier rain producing higher areal QPFs during the late night time frame as the low moves into our coastal waters. Highs tomorrow should run a few degrees warmer than today's temps.
320 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 A surface cold front currently over western South Dakota will slide across the CWA this evening, exiting to the east by midnight or so. Will see a tightening pressure gradient between this front and high pressure to the west overnight into Sunday morning before the high reaches the area around midday. After today's near record to record high temperatures, much cooler air will move in behind the front Sunday and Sunday night as the high settles in over the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s, with highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 30s. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower to mid teens.
A cold front will move through tonight and bring strong northwest winds.
207 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2020 The closed low pressure over New Mexico continues to slowly drift eastward, but over the CWA there is quite literally not a cloud in the sky. High pressure is building in over the area, bringing with it clear skies, calm winds, and seasonal temperatures.
Upper low was spinning over extreme ne NM. Quite a bit of dry air was associated with this system (especially to its' north), and this was limiting the amount of precip on the poleward side of the cyclone. Likewise, very little precip was pushing into CO considering the large circulation associated with this mid latitude cyclone.
That low will move south of the area on Sunday as a deepening upper trough moves in from the NW. The cloud cover will keep temps warmer today, with lows ranging from the low 30s east to the mid 30s elsewhere. A cold front will move in from the NW Sunday afternoon with winds gusting to 25-35 mph behind it.
Lowered temperatures in grids, including the low temperatures.
419 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected through Sunday under high pressure.
A surface cold front currently over western South Dakota will slide across the CWA this evening, exiting to the east by midnight or so. Will see a tightening pressure gradient between this front and high pressure to the west overnight into Sunday morning before the high reaches the area around midday. After today's near record to record high temperatures, much cooler air will move in behind the front Sunday and Sunday night as the high settles in over the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s, with highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 30s. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower to mid teens.
High pressure currently centered over the Ohio River Valley will quickly get booted to the east overnight ahead of our next rain maker.
724 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Weak high pressure will hold across west central and southwest Florida through Sunday. Mild conditions will continue with overnight low temperatures generally in the mid 60s and highs on Sunday in the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and south. An area low pressure developing over the southern Plains will track along the Gulf coast tonight and Sunday.
432 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2020 The closed low pressure over New Mexico continues to slowly drift eastward, but over the CWA there is quite literally not a cloud in the sky. High pressure is building in over the area, bringing with it clear skies, calm winds, and seasonal temperatures.
211 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2020 Cold front moving into north central Montana and window for high winds is closing so have cancelled the wind advisory which had been in effect for the Livingston and Big Timber areas. Pressure gradients tighten up again along the foothills Sunday night as short lived upper level ridge brings an increase in pressure to the northern Great Basin and flow over the Canadian Rockies amplifies leeside troughing.
Snow showers will likely develop over the higher terrain this evening as the trough axis passes. With a slightly cooler air mass in place over Central/North-central MT, lows will mostly be in the teens and 20s. A ridge of high pressure builds in aloft on Sunday and will yield dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures.
Weak ridging will enhance over the region this weekend, increasing temperatures back to at or above seasonal averages.
In the upper-levels, water vapor imagery shows a compact upper low currently over New Mexico, and quasi- zonal flow with parallel jet cores over the northern and southern CONUS. Our dry forecast is set to begin with the main concern being a passing cold front that traverses eastern Nebraska and western Iowa early Sunday morning. High temperatures are expected to only achieve values in the upper 30's to the lower 40's with no precipitation, both as the front passes as well as behind it.
831 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Cold front's about halfway through the CWA, with ~4-6hpa 3-hourly pressure tendency bubble advecting this way out of eastern Montana/western North Dakota. A surface cold front currently over western South Dakota will slide across the CWA this evening, exiting to the east by midnight or so. Will see a tightening pressure gradient between this front and high pressure to the west overnight into Sunday morning before the high reaches the area around midday. After today's near record to record high temperatures, much cooler air will move in behind the front Sunday and Sunday night as the high settles in over the region. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s, with highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 30s. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower to mid teens.
Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s across the region. The aforementioned boundary will lift north as warm front with a weak area of low pressure developing off coast of northeast FL. At the same time, a better defined low pressure will develop in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, then shift quickly to the northeast dragging a cold front extending from it towards the eastern Gulf. Highs in the low 80s with mostly dry conditions expected. There is some uncertainty as to whether the low stratus will reach MCO and ISM, but did hint at lower clouds in the 00Z TAFs, with some shallow ground fog possible.
A dense patch of cirrus is beginning to overspread the Tennessee Valley this afternoon as a developing low pressure system over the Southern Plains begins to take shape. The aforementioned low pressure system will continue east from the Southern Plains overnight into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. The fast pace of this now upper-trough will then result in the heaviest precipitation tapering off from west to east after Midnight.
629 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected through Sunday under high pressure.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s across the region. The aforementioned boundary will lift north as warm front with a weak area of low pressure developing off coast of northeast FL. At the same time, a better defined low pressure will develop in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, then shift quickly to the northeast dragging a cold front extending from it towards the eastern Gulf. Highs in the low 80s with mostly dry conditions expected. There is some uncertainty as to whether the low stratus will reach MCO and ISM, but did hint at lower clouds in the 00Z TAFs, with some shallow ground fog possible.
256 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 A large closed off upper level low pressure system was centered over southwest Oklahoma this morning.
Early this morning, surface observations indicate that an associated cold front is currently draped across northeast Nebraska. Behind the front, winds will increase significantly today as deep mixing to up to 850 mb occurs, along with an increasing pressure gradient as high pressure builds back in. Otherwise expect ample sunshine, but much cooler temperatures today with highs near 40 across the area (about 5 degrees below normal). The workweek: Beyond Sunday, things look dry and cooler.
254 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to mid 40s. Currently, low pressure was centered near the Texas Gulf coast. The low will track northeast today reaching southeast Louisiana this afternoon and then southwest Alabama by this evening. This low will start to spread rain into the Mid-South later this morning. Temperatures will be cooler than normal today with highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s. As the low moves away from the region, rain will continue this evening before ending from west to east. Temperatures will be chilly by Monday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Models suggest the low will move toward the north closer to morning, so rain may be a little bit slower spreading north and east tonight into early Sunday.
The aforementioned low pressure system will continue east from the Southern Plains overnight into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. The fast pace of this now upper-trough will then result in the heaviest precipitation tapering off from west to east after Midnight. Of particular interest to us will be the much colder air that will filter into the area in wake of the surface cold front late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Secondly, though it will feel downright cold on Monday (with wind chills in the 20s), surface temperatures will remain above freezing in the upper 30s to lower 40s, making any accumulations at all very difficult.
1041 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania overnight. A deepening low pressure system will form over the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move northward up the Appalachians on Monday.
No precipitation is anticipated with this trough as it slides east across the Ouachitas/Ozarks. By mid-morning, tomorrow (Sunday), an elongated cold front will push into the region. With clear skies and northwest winds, lows Monday morning will dip into the lower to mid 20s F across the region.
The chilly nights will lead to patchy frost and freezing conditions in the wind sheltered valleys, while days trend a little warmer. The defining characteristic of this weather though is the low relative humidity.
a dry cold front/trough located from Gillette to Casper to Muddy Gap this afternoon.
A cold front will move through tonight and bring strong northwest winds. A deep trough will persist across the eastern CONUS, and that will allow cooler air to filter in from the north. A cold front will pass across the area overnight. The cold front and wind shift still looks to occur around 08Z, with gusts developing around 11Z.
After a warming trend through Monday, a second system will bring cooler temperatures by midweek. This trough has pushed a very weak and shallow dry cold front into northern Utah. Therefore, expect little noticeable impact with this trough. The ridge will rebuild into Utah tomorrow. The ridge is still expected flatten then retrograde in response to the next trough to move across the northwestern CONUS.
The main impact from this feature will be slightly cooler temperatures in the range of 2 to 5 degrees in the northern valleys with a more noticeable change of 7 to 12 degrees across the higher elevations. Elsewhere, expect the seasonal and dry weather to continue with a ridge of high pressure sliding over the forecast area tonight and into Monday. Monday afternoon will see the ridge begin to weaken and progress eastward as an upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. The Pacific trough will trek across the Northern Rockies Monday night as the accompanying upper level jet reaches northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. A cold front will begin to progress across the northern tier of the forecast area Monday night, reaching the central zones around midday.
238 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 A cold front continues to push through the forecast area early this morning. Temperatures will struggle to climb much above freezing, with wind chills in the teens to 20s. Trended towards the lower guidance values.
1029 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania overnight. A deepening low pressure system will form over the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday and move northward up the Appalachians on Monday.
This is driven by isentropic ascent and moistening being maximized in the 290-300-K surface range preceding compact closed low moving eastward. There is a low probability of some snow mixing in from west- central/southwest Oklahoma east toward OKC metro late tonight and early tomorrow morning near the center of the closed low. For this to occur, 1) deep saturation into the dendritic growth zone would have to remain, and seems probable near the center of the closed low, and 2) precipitation rates would have to be significant enough for nearly complete cooling to wet bulb profiles. However, experience says these closed low scenarios can have under-represented cold air in the models.
Southwest winds expected to persist through the night, keeping temperatures milder than last night, but lows at or just below freezing are still likely. High pressure located southeast of the CWA will continue to bring unseasonably warm and dry weather to the area through Sunday. In the northern stream, a cold front will push into the area. The precip should begin as rain but then quickly become mixed with snow, and then later changing to all snow late Sunday night, as colder air advects into the area behind the cold front. Main concerns in the forecast will be in the period after 18Z, as a cold front sweeps in from the northwest.
218 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 High pressure at the sfc will build into the region through Monday, with generally dry and relatively mild conditions. Aloft a mid-level trof will advect across the area this morning, with ridging aloft over the Rockies expected to expand east into the Northern Plains tnt and Monday.
1145 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected through Sunday under high pressure.
/issued 724 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020/ Weak high pressure will hold across west central and southwest Florida through Sunday. Mild conditions will continue with overnight low temperatures generally in the mid 60s and highs on Sunday in the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and south. An area low pressure developing over the southern Plains will track along the Gulf coast tonight and Sunday. An associated cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Sunday night and Monday with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the boundary.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front with NAM soundings showing around 30 to 35 kts at the top of the mixed layer. Early in the week the northern stream trough over the Midwest is forecast to phase with a southern stream trough ejecting from the southern plains. The early week upper low will serve to slow down the large scale flow progression, with another upper trough forecast to drift southward across the plains through late week as strong mid/upper level ridging develops across western Canada.
Isold TSRA wl be psbl cntrl and south Sunday 15Z-21Z as a center of low pressure moves across the area. Models suggest the low will move toward the north closer to morning, so rain may be a little bit slower spreading north and east tonight into early Sunday.
That low will move south of the area on Sunday as a deepening upper trough moves in from the NW. The cloud cover will keep temps warmer today, with lows ranging from the low 30s east to the mid 30s elsewhere. A cold front will move in from the NW Sunday afternoon with winds gusting to 25-35 mph behind it. Expect the coldest airmass so far this season to move overhead Sunday night into Monday as the deepening upper trough moves through. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 20s with wind chills in the teens. Ridging moves through Monday night, which will allow lows in the mid teens to low 20s, with locally colder spots.
1028 PM MST Sat Nov 28 2020 The closed low pressure over New Mexico continues to slowly drift eastward, but over the CWA there is quite literally not a cloud in the sky. High pressure is building in over the area, bringing with it clear skies, calm winds, and seasonal temperatures.
Most of the eastern half of Washington has cleared out the low stratus/fog that was present today.
Cold front moving into north central Montana and window for high winds is closing so have cancelled the wind advisory which had been in effect for the Livingston and Big Timber areas. Pressure gradients tighten up again along the foothills Sunday night as short lived upper level ridge brings an increase in pressure to the northern Great Basin and flow over the Canadian Rockies amplifies leeside troughing. Monday will remain well mixed as another wave moving through southern Canada brings a cold front by Monday night. Cold front could be accompanied by some flurries and a chance for some mountain snow Monday night through progressive nature of the flow means weather will not be sticking around for long.
The clipper system and potent but dry cold front will reach the northwest part of the CWA by mid morning, near the Mississippi River around noon, then exit the CWA by late afternoon. Key Messages: 1) Blustery and cold start to Monday, with wind chills in the single digits to mid teens 2) Brisk and gusty winds from the north northwest on Monday 3) Dry conditions persist through the upcoming week Sunday night and Monday, the region will be between a deepening low pressure system over the eastern U. and a building ridge of high pressure to the west. Highs will peak in the low to mid 30s.
Mostly clear and cold tonight as high pressure builds overhead. An upper level ridge will strengthen on Sunday bringing slightly warmer temperatures. A cold front will move into the region from the Gulf of Alaska on Monday afternoon, bringing snow showers to the mountains.
The surface cold front has pushed well offshore early this afternoon and high pressure continues to build into our region well behind this feature. Conditions will quickly dry out from west to east Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through the region. Sunday night will be the warmest night, with low temperatures ranging from the low 40s west of the Alabama River to near 50 southeast. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s across the CWA expected Monday.
At the surface a pre frontal trough was located from north central KS into WI with a cold front from southwest NEB into southern MN.
219 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Upper low will continue to track eastward across the southern Plains today. The surface cold front associated with the northern stream upper trof moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will also drop south across the area today.
1031 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Currently - A weak baggy ridge holding on for life across Florida is maintaining light mostly east northeast breezes across the Keys. Meanwhile, the lower level ridging is broadly across our area. Expect overnight lows to be in the lower 70s, but some locations could dip further down towards the dew point, which is around 70. Mariners should continue to monitor weather forecasts as the next cold front is expected to push through the area late Monday.
133 AM MST Sun Nov 29 2020 Overall mild flow pattern will persist through most of the period, supporting mostly above normal temps and mainly dry weather, as a mean western NOAM ridge generally remains in place.
Lowered temperatures in grids, including the low temperatures. After a period of dry and cold weather another trough takes aim on the region later in the week.
The upper low currently over the region will push off to the east later this morning. The placement of the upper high will dictate how low temps will drop.
(Today and tonight) The upper low spinning over western Oklahoma early this morning will continue to drift east today. This afternoon, a strong cold front will sweep in from the northwest, bringing much drier, cooler, and windy conditions behind it. In addition to bringing the cooler and windy conditions, the front will also bring a definitive end to the precipitation.
A slight warm up for the mid week is expected as a ridge passes through the Midwest.
Aloft, water vapor imagery and upper air analysis places a compact upper level low drifting across Oklahoma at 14Z with increasing divergent flow aloft across the southeast CONUS. Further north, a positively tilted trough is shifting southeast across the northern plains. At the surface a cyclone is developing along the Gulf Coast underneath increasing divergence aloft. Nonetheless, a southeast 35-40 knot flow would still support increasing winds across the higher terrain with gusts in excess of 40 mph. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 43 45 27 42 / 70 100 50 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 44 46 28 38 / 50 90 80 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 44 45 28 39 / 50 90 80 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 45 49 28 35 / 10 90 90 70 20 TN.
Main forecast issues will be rain chances today and freezing temperature potential Monday night. Wave of low pressure is forecasted to move from the northern Gulf into southeast Louisiana by midday. Skies will likely clear overnight across most of the region although clouds may linger over the lower Acadiana region.
These higher winds are in association with a cold front passage that will clear the area by mid morning.
An Alberta clipper low pressure system was moving through far northeast MN early this morning, with an associated cold front moving into far northwest WI. The cold front will push through GRB CWA this morning, with a surge of CAA overspreading the region for the rest of the day. Snow showers may remain moderate to heavy at times in Vilas County into the evening hours, as the upper trough moves through, and over-water instability increases. A gradual decrease in snow showers is anticipated after the trough shifts east and low-level winds turn north overnight. High temperatures will be much cooler, with readings in the middle 20s to lower 30s.
513 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 High pressure at the sfc will build into the region through Monday, with generally dry and relatively mild conditions. Aloft a mid-level trof will advect across the area this morning, with ridging aloft over the Rockies expected to expand east into the Northern Plains tnt and Monday.