Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The temperatures during the snow will hover right around freezing and thus given the warm road conditions little to no snow is expected to accumulate on roadways. Cold is the word for this Halloween with temperatures hovering right around freezing during the prime time trick or treat hours of 5-8 pm. This period continues to appear dry with a roller coaster ride of temperatures as cold fronts periodically track across the region.
645 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Axis of the high pressure over the area will shift eastward ahead of a weak and dry cold front sags southeast across the Ohio Valley overnight.
Hires guidance (other than the HRRR) is somewhat consistent in redeveloping showers/storms with the aid of the previously mentioned lingering boundary with the highest coverage more south of the TN river.
A ridge of high pressure will be building back over the region for the remainder of the week causing a continuation of hot and dry conditions.
124 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The region will see a few days of drier and less humid conditions as high pressure dominates.
High pressure will build across the Great lakes region tonight and begin shifting east on Tuesday. Light winds overnight will turn southeast Tuesday morning and a lake breeze is expected by afternoon keeping the lake shore a few degrees cooler. Highs inland likely to reach the lower 80s.
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Surface analysis reveals a weak cold front generally along or south of I-64 at this time. The isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the early evening ahead of the weak cold front before dying down around sunset with loss of surface heating. May have some patchy fog as well across south-central Kentucky, where the higher dewpoint/moisture air resides. High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to funnel in drier and slightly cooler air Tuesday.
254 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U.
210 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Latest upper analysis shows an upper low crossing the Canadian prairies with a trough extending southward into Montana. South of the boundary, temperatures are currently around 100F with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Overnight the upper low in Canada will continue to shift eastward a disturbance in the flow will bring a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms to far northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern South Dakota late tonight.
This has kept temperatures down a bit from previous days with readings generally in the low to mid 80s as of 10AM. In addition, dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s, down 4-5 degrees from this time yesterday. Temperatures will still warm into the lower 90s across much of the area this afternoon, but lower dewpoints should limit the maximum heat indices to 100-105 degrees this afternoon. Vertical shear remains very weak given the proximity to the upper-level anticyclone so thunderstorm mode will be primarily ordinary cells initially, transitioning to more multicellular structures along outflow boundaries.
1211 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A relatively cooler and noticeably drier air mass is moving into the region currently, setting the stage for a relatively pleasant start to the work week. By Tuesday, the upper ridge expands back east and low level flow will turn back to a southerly direction. So as highs climb back into the low to mid 90s and dewpoints climb into the lower 70s, heat indices will climb back to around 100.
Clearing skies and warmer temperatures will arrive for mid week. Surface and upper level trough will take its time working across the region Tuesday.
Mid-level (500 mb) ridge builds northward across south FL as troughiness shifts NE while surface Atlc ridge holds directly underneath. Lingering evening convection both days, with few onshore- moving late night showers/storms along lower Treasure Coast early Wed, south of ridge axis. Ridge surface and aloft persists across southern half of FL through late week then is surpressed a bit farther south as mid level trough and surface reflection extend southward to panhandle over the weekend. Offshore gradient flow may become strong enough, at least over the northern half of area, to limit/restrict sea breeze formation over the weekend, but proximity of trough should overcome lack of sea breeze convergence to lead to above normal weekend POPs. With weak ridge over southern waters, winds generally S-SW 10 kt, turning onshore in a sea breeze near the coast each afternoon.
Some quiet and drier weather is on tap, as high pressure drifts east across the Great Lakes region.
High pressure of 1018mb centered near Duluth MN slides across Upper Michigan and Wisconsin through this aftn. Dry airmass and mixing with the high should dissipate stratus and fog over far west U.
Potential for mountain obscurations will trend up overnight as increased moisture from over Arizona rotates around the upper high circulation into W/NW New Mexico.
Cooler conditions can be expected Today and Tuesday due to a deepening marine layer and increased onshore flow. Warming is then expected during the second half of the week as an upper ridge builds back across California. This is due to the mid/upper level low and associated trough approaching the California coast this morning with low clouds spreading well inland to many valley locations. This marine push has also resulted in a decent cool down region-wide with many locations showing temperatures a good few to several degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. All of these factors will lead to cooler conditions today for nearly all locations, especially those that are away from the coast.
/issued 338 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again expected across much of West Central Texas this afternoon and evening, as a weakness in the upper level ridge remains across the region. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
Upper level low over Saskatchewan moving east with strong westerly flow aloft over the region. A series of cold fronts have moved through most of the area already and one more push of reinforcing cooler air expected after midnight. Coolest day so far in July on tap for Tuesday as the amplitude of the upper level ridge is weakened by the Canadian low and northerly pressure gradients create weak upslope winds.
105 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very-humid conditions over the region today with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms.
306 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, primarily in the higher terrain areas. As upper high builds back into the region expect much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas to have indices in the 103-107 degree range Tuesday afternoon.
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek.
329 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Upper level ridge has a firm grip on the area, with heights in the process of slowly rising across the region. A strong area of low pressure will track west to east across central Canada Tuesday. This will drive a cold front south into northwest Nebraska by late afternoon. Should be a couple of degrees warmer than today, as area will be in favorable location for the heat just in front of the approaching cold front. Will see highs nearing 100 degrees at most locations, with areas around O'Neill a little cooler due to higher humidity (but it will feel just as hot due to heat index).
Expecting little uptick in convection through the remainder of the day as high pressure and drier air finally begins to work into the region. Updated grids to reflect this trend with high pops north of the highway 190 corridor through noon time, then tapering them off during the afternoon, with isolated to scattered pops further south along the I-10 corridor for the afternoon. A pattern change is expected through mid week as a mid to upper level ridge will build in from the west. High pressure will remain over the northern gulf with low seas and light onshore winds expected.
114 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Aviation Northerly winds on the back side of departing low pressure will usher in cooler and less humid weather today, although considerable cloudiness is likely especially east of Grand Rapids.
The precip was occurring near a cold front dropping south through the area. It will bring slightly cooler and drier air southward. Following this, high pressure passing by to our northeast will provide fair weather through Tuesday night. The precip was occurring near a cold front. The places most likely to avoid it will be on ridges and in the far north.
351 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A slow moving low pressure system will continue to bring showers and storms scattered across the region through tonight.
454 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A weak cold front will pass through the region tonight and into early tomorrow morning.
149 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 High pressure will provide cooler and less humid conditions tonight into Tuesday.
651 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A slow moving low pressure system will continue to bring showers and storms scattered across the region through tonight.
310 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very-humid conditions over the region today with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms.
305 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek.
An upper ridge will begin to shift eastward tonight, and the rising heights will bring gradually increasing temperatures back into MO/IL. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than Monday, and the heat index is forecast to reach the upper 90s across parts of the area. Kanofsky After a brief respite from the heat a new upper level ridge edges it's way into the CWA Tues. An upper low moving from the high plains into the Great Lakes region late Wed night/early Thurs will bring a cold front through the CWA.
The upper ridge of high pressure building into the region from the west will help to keep POPS low and temperatures high across SE TX tomorrow. The strengthening ridge will lower POPS once again for Thu and Fri. 5" along and ahead of this boundary as it move across the lower MS River Valley with the western extent of this activity in SE TX. 41 Weak high pressure over the northern Gulf should allow for southwest winds today. Winds become southeast by mid week with low pressure deepening in the plains.
Leftover boundaries from these overnight storms could help to generate more activity during the day today in and around that area, and that is where we are carrying the higher rain chances. With mid/upper level high pressure building into the area as the rest of the week progresses, low rain chances (generally 20% or less) and increasing heat can be expected for a majority of us. ridge and an eastern U. S trough over the weekend, and this might allow for a weak frontal boundary to enter our area and bring with it our next best chances of rain and potential heat relief.
119 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Early morning satellite imagery together with surface obs and RAP13 analysis showed an area of high pressure centered over Lake Superior, with light clockwise flow in place across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile expect today to be mostly sunny and slightly warmer than yesterday with southeasterly winds. Scattered to broken mid level clouds may persist for much of the day east of the EML poking into west central MN, and a dry airmass from the continental high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes will keep temperatures mild east of I-35.
High pressure aloft, creating subsidence, will create very warm temperatures this afternoon. High pressure with deep subtropical ridge will be in place with east southeasterly wind flow.
133 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very-humid conditions over the region today with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures are on track to climb into the lower and middle 90s this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along the Colorado lee trough but are not expected to affect the forecast area given the weak southwesterly winds aloft. Better chances for thunderstorms will exist later Tuesday afternoon into the evening as a weak mid-level trough initiates thunderstorms in Colorado which will then move into the forecast area during the evening. Large scale ridge remains in place across the southwest US, with mean flow shifted further north and northeast from our CWA. Today-Tonight: Lee trough begins to deepen today and southerly flow will bring both breezy conditions and WAA. Temperatures should be similar to Sun if not a little warmer and I made a slight upward adjustment to account for increase in WAA.
246 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon seems to indicate the circulation of the upper high has now shifted into W. Moisture is surging northward on the backside of the high with PWAT doubling at KGJT overnight. Arizona begins lifting around the periphery of the upper high.
316 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Upper level ridge has a firm grip on the area, with heights in the process of slowly rising across the region. A strong area of low pressure will track west to east across central Canada Tuesday. This will drive a cold front south into northwest Nebraska by late afternoon. Should be a couple of degrees warmer than today, as area will be in favorable location for the heat just in front of the approaching cold front. Will see highs nearing 100 degrees at most locations, with areas around O'Neill a little cooler due to higher humidity (but it will feel just as hot due to heat index).
244 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A cold front will pass through the area this evening.
1246 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Today-tonight: Relatively quiet weather with high pressure slowly drifting east. Upper support is limited virtually non-existent with area near 300MB ridge axis so left forecast dry, but would not be shocked by a rogue elevated storm.
149 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A cold front will move through the region today.
1113 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017 08z surface analysis had low pressure over southern SK with meandering frontal boundary south into eastern WY and then southeast into central NE. However, drier air moving in from the southwest will keep MLCIN on the high side, so coverage will be limited and focused on aforementioned boundaries. Tuesday, upper ridge flattens as surface boundaries consolidate across southern portions of the CWA.
Moist west-southwest flow will be in place today with a weak mid- level trough stretching northeast to southwest just north of the region.
High pressure will provide dry weather through midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed ahead of the cold front entering the mid Ohio River Valley. The cold front will slide through late this afternoon into this evening. High pressure dominates for Tuesday with drier air in place.
259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Quiet weather is expected through the period with neutral upper- level flow and high pressure building across the area at this surface. Once the low clouds fade (they have been trending more cellular with time), the mostly clear skies and light winds anticipated may be conducive to fog development. Current model guidance is not too excited about fog tonight, but they weren't excited about the low clouds either, leading to low confidence in their output.
351 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A weak cold front will pass through the region tonight and into early tomorrow morning.
/Issued 342 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/ Upper level ridge will begin to shift east over the Panhandles, but another round of afternoon convection is expected before the break in storm activity on Tuesday. As the ridge moves overhead on Tuesday the chances of storms will be limited to just the northwest corner of the Panhandles, and even there the chances look fairly low.
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A slow moving low pressure system will continue to bring showers and storms scattered across the region through tonight.
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A nice stretch of late July weather is set to unfold for the next couple days as continental high pressure takes control in the Great Lakes. Cooler northerly flow today has already scoured out the humid air that was in place over the weekend and a little more drying is expected tonight. Resulting highs in the lower 80s are right about normal for July 25th.
This cold front will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, some of which may become severe. It should be noted that there is disagreement in the high resolution models. The cold front continues to sweep southeast overnight. Tuesday will see cooler high temperatures for most of the forecast area, with another chance for a strong to severe storm across our far southeast in the afternoon along the front.
Winds will continue to be gusty from the SSE today, before the gradient relaxes more on Tuesday as high pressure sets up over the western Gulf. /issued 353 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): South Texas remains caught between the H5 ridge dominating the Four Corners region and the trough stretching across the western Gulf. Moisture will begin to increase overnight as an inverted trough draws moisture northward.
320 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 As of 19z, upper level ridge axis continues to shift eastward into the central Plains. The eastern counties will remain in the lower 90s. Clear skies are expected overnight with low temperatures bottoming out in the lower 70s. The slight decrease in mixing will allow sfc Td's to remain in the lower 70s.
315 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A weak upper low over MS/LA which has nosed its way westward into Central and East Texas will gradually shift south over the next 24 hours. Farther north, the atmosphere is not only worked-over from overnight and morning convection, but also is being affected by increasing subsidence as the ridge restrengthens and the weakness in its southeast flank shifting southwestward into South TX. The break in the heat will be short lived due to the expectation that the ridge will intensify over the next several days.
/Issued 940 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/ There was some patchy fog this morning, mainly confined to the low lying areas/valleys.
411 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Low pressure tracking through the Gulf of Maine tonight will keep rain in the forecast through the evening with lingering showers tapering off Tuesday morning.
1025 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A dry cold front will keep windy conditions across the Cascades and into the Columbia Basin.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather regime tonight, and begin to relinquish control on Tuesday. A cold front located well to our northwest will be a focus for showers/storms across MN into northern WI and should stay out of our area.
258 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A relatively dry air mass currently in place will slowly erode early Tuesday morning as southerly return flow commences underneath a weakening upper-level ridge.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Water vapor analysis shows the H5 ridge centered over Southern NM/AZ this afternoon with a deepening trough across the Eastern U. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level trough axis is stretched across the Northern Gulf coast back into Eastern Texas. This area of troughing will allow a weak mid level wave to skirt across Northern Mexico overnight, bringing a small plume of tropical moisture into the RGV. However, the ridge of high pressure will continue to bring strong subsidence and current thinking is that overall coverage of showers will remain low on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday should be a degree or two cooler, however this will highly depend on clouds/rainfall.
605 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U.
Active weather expected this week as monsoon moisture will combine with a stalled trough along the California coast.
Cooler today and Tuesday with near normal temperatures, then warmer for the remainder of the week. 580 DM upper low approaching the NW CA coast will be main weather feature for Interior NorCal over the next 48 hours. Satellite imagery showing much of the CU/TCU that developed over the higher terrain earlier has dissipated or lead to development east of the Sierra crest. Afternoon temperatures are running cooler at all locations with greatest cooling in Delta influenced areas of about 7 to 15 degrees. GFS/NAM/EC similar in keeping upper low quasistationary invof of the coast Tuesday, filling it slightly. Elevated instability progs suggest only a slight chance for deep moist convection over the higher elevations of the Coastal range, Shasta, Western Plumas, and Sierra Nevada in the afternoon/early evening.
Current forecast on track with the lower rain chances today. Temperatures will also be a little warmer as a result with highs on track to reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. High pressure ridge axis in place across south Florida will meander north to across central Florida Tuesday. Dry air that moved into the area overnight will linger for the next couple of days and keep rain chances mainly in the scattered category with the highest chances north.
406 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper level ridge remains in place across the area today with dry conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be quite gusty out of the south tomorrow ahead of the advancing cold front which could hopefully help mitigate some of the heat.
The intense heating should allow dewpoint temps to mix to the low to mid 70s during the afternoon hours, which should keep max heat index values in the 103-107 degree range, which is just below the precipice of the heat advisory criteria. However, subsidence associated with the ridge aloft will prevail and mid-level temperatures will continue to be relatively mild (-5 to -7 Celsius at 500 millibars).
Little change to the pattern for Thursday with upper level ridge over the region.
Upper level analysis shows main upper trough now located across central SD to eastern CO, slowly moving to the east-northeast. Upper level analysis has a trof across the western CONUS, and another across New England with weak ridging across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure and weak trof reside across the central and eastern Dakotas, with main low across Kansas. High pressure is settling into the Northern Rockies behind the surface trof. Upper level trof across the western CONUS will shift into the Northern Plains as the surface trof move east of the area. Near zonal flow and weak ridging is expected for the end of the week and this weekend, with mainly dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today as the 500mb subtropical ridge across the southeast United States and the Gulf of Mexico continues to provide subsidence across the area. Will go with persistence for temperatures today through Thursday as the upper level ridge across the southeast U.
a cold front was positioned from the Texas Panhandle to Central Kansas with an ongoing MCS moving eastward across Eastern Kansas into Missouri. scattered rain showers continued to lift northeast across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within an axis of deep layer moisture out ahead of the cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight as the cold front moves into Northeast Oklahoma.
The high resolution models (HRRR and 3km NAM) are showing spotty thunderstorm development across the southern highlands this afternoon.
1140 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 An area of high pressure will build into the region through tonight.