Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
749 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front moving south across the area will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area through tonight.
The resultant WAA over the Plains is allowing for the low level moisture to return to the CWA this afternoon. These thunderstorms are likely to ride the edge of the strengthening EML overnight and may clip northeast NEb after midnight and have the highest pops there tonight. Ahead of the front the low-level flow should turn southwest and allow for strong mixing into the 850 mb thermal ridge. This coupled with the dew points in the lower 70s will likely create heat index values from 100 to 105, but to marginal for an advisory currently.
1000 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Cold front dissolves over the area tonight. High pressure into Sunday night.
Continued cooling can be expected into Sunday as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. As expected temperatures are running cooler than yesterday in most locations as a longwave trof continues to deepen along the west coast.
The cloud cover have kept temperatures a little cooler this afternoon with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the northern Concho Valley and Big Country as of 20Z. Looks like a dry forecast for the next the 24 hours as an upper level high pressure ridge begins building across the central and southern Plains. Upper level high pressure centered will remain in control. Upper high will shift a little farther north, but with it still centered over Oklahoma or Arkansas, its still too close to allow any type of significant system to slip along the south side and bring convection into West Central Texas.
A weak upper level trough over the region will shift eastward tonight with flow becoming more zonal through the remainder of the weekend.
Upper low over the northern Rockies is kicking up a disturbance over eastern Montana that has generated showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW and central zones early this afternoon. The upper low tonight and Sunday will weaken and retrograde into the Pacific NW. This will allow an upper ridge to develop over eastern Montana.
702 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over central ND. Mid level troffing /H7 to H5/ pushes through the area from 15-18z so subsidence in the approaching mid level ridge should help scattered out clouds and provide a nice end to the day. An upper low over Hudson bay will keep cyclonic flow across the north and northeast through Sunday night as a weak cool front departs, with scattered showers and possibly some thunder possible as upper level vortices move across the northeast in the NW flow pattern.
TCu and even some convection have already gone up over the Black Hills and along the cold front in NW SD at this hour. As mentioned earlier, convection has already started to go up along the cold front and the Black Hills, though convection over the Black Hills has struggled to survive. Cold front in NW SD and NE WY will continue to move southeast across the CWA through the rest of the day. High pressure slides east of the area during the day Sunday, veering the winds from the northeast during the morning to the southeast by late afternoon.
Cannot rule out a few mainly diurnal showers/storms in our west and south per upslope flow and influence from weak upper trof to our north, but heights will be rising so Sunday should be a mostly benign weather day.
These storms may merge to form an MCS that would then move southeastward along the periphery of a building mid-level ridge. The system would then push southeastward across northeastern Missouri along the ridge axis. Mid-level ridging will then push the system out of the CWA by the mid-morning hours Sunday with moderate warm advection beginning in the early afternoon underneath the ridge.
(ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 ) High pressure is beginning to dominate the area.
729 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front will stall across the Downeast region this evening and return north in the form of a warm front Sunday.
For the coming week, 500mb ridging will continue to build over the central and southern plains, resulting in dry and seasonably mid to late July temperatures.
THIS TAKES PLACE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED 101F AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT. EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S.
936 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Upper level low currently centered over the Glacier/Waterton Park region will continue to fill while remaining nearly stationary through tonight with perhaps a slight elongation to the east along the MT/AB border.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep it dry tonight. Then, thunderstorm chances will be increasing starting late Sunday as a cold front approaches from the Plains allowing a moist and unstable flow of southwestern air into the Ohio Valley.
The main player for the South Plains over the coming day will be upper level ridging. This ridge was currently centered over southern New Mexico but will shift northward and bridge with an expanding high across the southeastern United States. Temperatures under this ridge will continue to be hot, though as we have seen today, the northeast zones, where they saw the most widespread and heavy rain the past 24 hours, have managed to stay in the upper 80s as of 20Z. Regarding storm chances, they do not look good as our mid-level flow has turned more northerly (as opposed to northwesterly) and temperatures aloft begin to warm more closely to the center of the ridge.
Given today looked like the better day of the weekend to get noticeably hotter than climo, I'm leaving tomorrow's highs in the low to mid 90s be tonight. The battle tomorrow again will be between the midlevel ridge to our west, and the subtle inverted trough that should be working through. Previous shift's idea of slightly better chances for showers and storms seems reasonable, assuming the trough moves quickly enough and keeps enough amplitude to shunt more Gulf moisture into the area.
933 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front will stall across the Downeast region this evening and return north in the form of a warm front Sunday.
At the surface, an area of low pressure is over northeastern CO vicinity with a warm boundary stretched along and near the KS/NE border.
VFR conditions will prevail across the region thru the TAF period as a high pressure ridge aloft builds overhead.
On Sunday, guidance suggests a weak cold front will move through the CWA in the morning with moist upslope flow behind it by afternoon, which should assist in storm development over Colorado during the afternoon ultimately moving into western Kansas.
A low pressure system over northwest Montana will dissipate early Sunday. Expect a new upper level low to develop off the Washington coast Sunday afternoon.
Closed low over northwestern Montana will send energy into the Great Lakes as early as late Sunday afternoon with increasing southerly flow ahead of it.
A weak cold front will move south from Montana across the northern Big Horn Basin and the eastern plains across Johnson and Natrona counties making a push into the Wind River Basin over night. Sunday night THROUGH Saturday The flow aloft will shift to the southwest Sunday night as a high pressure ridge builds north along the eastern border of Wyoming and a Pacific low pressure trough deepens and begins to move inland along the West Coast. Towards the end of the week the flow will become more westerly with a Canadian trough moving southeast from Saskatchewan into the Dakotas.
otherwise precip chances will continue to dwindle as upper high pressure strengthens over the Plains.
548 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Persistent cloud cover has been keeping convective inhibition on the high side this afternoon across the plains. Conditions overall should improve with sunset and as a cold front slides south across the forecast area tonight.
High pressure will result in dry conditions through tomorrow.
1229 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. An upper trough over the area will weaken today. The pattern indicates less thunderstorm coverage but with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, moderate instability expected.
Updated overnight lows to match latest obs and lowered temps across a few areas in the Delta and eastern part of the CWA where it has been cooler the last few evenings. Additional isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected tomorrow afternoon, with the higher chances over the SE half of the area including PIB/HBG.
Precip chances for Sunday should largely end after sunset, with what remains of the inverted trough progged to be well inland.
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible through the early evening hours, particularly across parts of central MO due to sfc convergence between the easterly winds on the periphery of the Great Lakes high pressure center and southerly winds farther to the west. The LLJ begins veering towards daybreak, and the shifting focus of the moisture convergence along a developing warm front may also support convection farther south into northern MO and west central IL during the morning until the warm front has lifted to the northeast. Expect afternoon highs on Sunday to be around 10 degrees warmer than they were on Saturday due to a warmer air mass and favorable southwest surface winds.
A warm front will exist from Algona to Ottumwa and will be lifting Northeast across the state through 18z. Then during the afternoon a cold front will be pushing across the state and be roughly across the Northern third or so of the forecast area by 00Z.
1158 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front will stall across the Downeast region this evening and return north in the form of a warm front Sunday.
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 High pressure is beginning to dominate the area.
Rose Sun night and Mon an upr ridge wl be centered nr the OK, KS and Mo border region, with the center slowly shifting southwestward into Wed, when it is forecast to be ovr central OK. The upr ridge then wl be centered over nrn NM Fri and Sat with still enough mstr ovr the area for isold to sct showers/tstms ovr the mtns and high valleys, and isold storm ovr the sern plains.
High pressure over the southern Rockies will shift to the east ahead of the next upper level trough settling into the Pacific Northwest late in the weekend.
This, in turn, will keep temperatures quite elevated, with most locales only falling to the lower 70s Sunday morning. Strong upper high begins to build strongly into the plains, with 500 mb heights rising sharply from 590 dm Saturday, to 594 dm Sunday afternoon. Lack of downslope, the upper high organizing east of SW KS near the Ozarks, and most importantly, lush vegetation and standing water from recent rainfall.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is sinking southward across the Northern Plains into the high plains of western Kansas.
446 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Cold air continued to settle over the Four State Region as high pressure builds South with overnight temperatures expected to drop to below freezing for areas North of I-30 and near 40 for Deep East Texas. trough of low pressure.
555 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 1040 mb Arctic high pressure over British Columbia Canada and ridging southeast into the MO valley will continue below normal temperatures across central and southeast IL the next several days. Lows tonight in the low to mid teens, with upper teens by highway 50. The snow should be pushing off to our east Thursday night as high pressure starts to build east into central Illinois.
A slow moving cold front will cross northern Utah tonight, then central and southern Utah Thursday.
12z model runs of the gfs and nam today showing a dry slot developing over the southern San Juans and Cortez to Durango area late Thursday night as the upper level trough dives into the Four Corners.
A strong cold front will move across the area Thursday afternoon. /issued 446 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ Cold air continued to settle over the Four State Region as high pressure builds South with overnight temperatures expected to drop to below freezing for areas North of I-30 and near 40 for Deep East Texas. trough of low pressure.
The first is a large fetch of moisture advecting into the Central Plains from the west courtesy of a deepening upper level low positioned near the Pacific Northwest. The other feature to note on water vapor imagery is the strengthening of an upper wave located on the backside of a deeper upper low now spinning just north of the Great Lakes.
/Issued 314 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ Shallow dome of cold and dry Arctic Air firmly in place across eastern OK and western AR this afternoon with temperatures struggling to warm much above freezing in some areas despite near full afternoon sun. however some increase in low level moisture possible across southeast areas by early Thursday morning and will need to watch this area for any patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle.
Winds will generally be light through the overnight period then a cold front will move into the area Thursday morning with northeast to east winds. The cooler airmass behind the front that pushed through yesterday has already begun to erode away. Cooler air is still holding on across the NE Permian Basin where temperatures are in the 40's. The front will make it to central portions of the area just after sunrise Thursday before hanging up across the higher terrain during the afternoon. Look for a wide range of temperatures Thursday afternoon with the Rio Grande seeing highs near 80 and Snyder possibly not making it much above freezing.
MVFR conditions for ceilings will likely start creeping in from the north around late morning for KGUY, and then a little later for KDHT, finally reaching KAMA around noon as high pressure builds to the north.
/issued 301 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ High pressure has been the dominant weather feature of note today, but things change as we head towards the end of the week.
Other than scattered flurries to our southwest associated with low pressure across CO this evening, and off and on light flurries along our northern border this afternoon, dry weather will remain.
An upper level low pressure will sweep across the Mid-State on Thursday and Thursday evening, providing a reinforcing shot of cold air and the likelihood for an accumulating snow. Slick spots will likely develop on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses, in the advisory area.
Upper level trough is currently pushing south across the northern Plains and snow has developed ahead of this system across southeastern Nebraska. Temperatures will be cold tonight and Thursday with lows again in the teens to low 20s and highs from the low 20s to around 30.
With a cold front beginning to enter from the northwest at the end of the period, a wind shift will be in the offing, but at the end of this forecast period, only the northernmost sites should see that impact, and CXO to a limited extent.
Current temps range from upper 20s northwest to the lower 30s south. Current overnight lows range from the lower 20s northwest and generally the mid 20s elsewhere.
Latest surface analysis and IR satellite imagery show weak cold front currently across south central Florida this afternoon with abundant cloud cover across S Florida. The higher instability is more noticeable along the eastern portion of S Florida and the Atlantic waters. Front begins to exit the area into Florida Straits quickly tonight bringing cooler and dry air into the region under northwest flow. Expect cooler temps tonight ranging from mid to low 50s interior and mid to low 60s along the east coast metro.
Broken clouds will gradually thicken and ceilings lower this evening and move east as the North Dakota trough drops southeast. Clouds and perhaps a flurry or two will continue into Thursday associated with the passage of the trough.
Clouds and rather light winds will keep values this evening a bit warmer, outside of criteria, still dangerous if caught unprepared in the open.
Bitter cold northwest flow continues tonight with a mid-level trough dropping through NEB/IA. Overnight lows expected to dip into the single digits to around 10 below with the "warmer" lows under that aforementioned thicker high/mid cloud.
High pressure keeps the mainly clear conditions in place through this evening before the advection of mid/high level moisture enters from the west later tonight. Temperatures in the low 20s and teens in the mountains will set the ground up for immediate accumulations once the snow begins to fall Thursday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 48 31 36 / 0 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 42 30 34 / 0 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 25 41 29 33 / 0 30 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 37 28 31 / 0 40 70 30 TN.
448 PM MST Wed Jan 4 2017 Light snow probabilities will increase along and north of the interstate this evening as moisture in the 850-500mb layer increases ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
Rain and high elevation snow is forecast for Thursday ahead of a strong cold front, with the greatest precipitation amounts expected near the Utah state line.
Within the area mentioned above the higher amounts are expected mainly along and north of Interstate 64. Beyond that arctic high pressure will keep the region dry along with well below normal temperatures.
Otherwise VFR conditions until Thu evening, at which time a MVFR stratus deck may develop behind another cold front. The aforementioned cold front will arrive at AUS around 22Z Thu, SAT around 00Z Fri, and DRT 03Z Fri. At the surface, winds were from the north to northeast behind a cold front. The frontal boundary will come back through as a warm front tonight. Another cold front will drop through our CWA Thursday.
The snow will taper off from north to south overnight as an upper trough moves south across the region with snow expected to clear the CWA by late Thursday morning.
Still keeping an eye on southern portion of CWA for the potential of drizzle/freezing drizzle developing late tonight/early morning. /Issued 314 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ Shallow dome of cold and dry Arctic Air firmly in place across eastern OK and western AR this afternoon with temperatures struggling to warm much above freezing in some areas despite near full afternoon sun. however some increase in low level moisture possible across southeast areas by early Thursday morning and will need to watch this area for any patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle.
/DC/ Tonight and Thursday: Latest surface analysis had a ridge of high pressure dropping southeast over our CWA from the central plains. This ridge will weaken and become more east-west oriented tonight. This will result in a light northeast flow helping to send temperatures slightly cooler than normal by morning. Temperatures will start out below freezing Thursday morning across the northern half of the area. Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler than normal in our northwest, in the upper 40s and near normal elsewhere. /22/ Thursday night through Wednesday: The next cold front will drop through the area Thursday night and bring a good shot of reinforcing arctic air.
A cold front will move through the area Thursday morning, with winds becoming north at 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts. /issued 343 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ (Tonight and Thursday) Mostly sunny and cool across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s across the I-20 corridor at Sweetwater and Abilene to the low 50s across the I-10 corridor from Ozona to Sonora and Junction. Temperatures will struggle to climb above the freezing mark across the Big Country, with readings farther south climbing ahead of the front and then becoming colder by afternoon.
Elsewhere, a short wave trough was spreading an area of light snow into western Nebraska with high level clouds pushing eastward into the dvn cwa. Tonight: Operational models similar in tracking a short wave trough across the area. Overlaying the dendritic growth zone (-12 to -18C) with the 100 percent RH and omega (vertical motion)the best location for the highest snow accumulations will be south of the dvn cwa. The highest pops will be in our far south with only chance pops along Interstate 80. Thursday: In the wake of the trough even colder air builds southward with 850 mb temperatures dropping to -23C in our far north.
The upper ridge near the Aleutians that was anchoring the block will force low upper heights downstream over much of the CONUS into the weekend, then the flow will become more progressive as the negative anomaly center releases off to the east.
405 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2017 Latest surface analysis had a ridge of high pressure dropping southeast over our CWA from the central plains. This ridge will weaken and become more east-west oriented tonight. This will result in a light northeast flow helping to send temperatures slightly cooler than normal by morning. Temperatures will start out below freezing Thursday morning across the northern half of the area. Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler than normal in our northwest, in the upper 40s and near normal elsewhere. /22/ The next cold front will drop through the area Thursday night and bring a good shot of reinforcing arctic air.
846 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 High pressure will continue to build in from the west this evening into tonight.
Winds aloft will remain stout, at 40 to 50 kt at 10,000ft MSL, keeping ridge tops and some downwind areas gusty overnight and into Thurs with potential for mountain wave activity/turbulence.
The stratus in place right now across western and southwestern OK will continue to nudge eastward overnight as 850 mb flow veers ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures right now are mostly below freezing, with the exception of SE OK where the stratus is lingering.
Winds are from the northeast at around 5 mph, with wind chills in the low/mid 20s.
A surface area of high pressure is forecast to track across eastern Montana by Thursday morning. This Aloft an h500 elongated trough will continue to move through.
Temperatures will be a little warmer on Thursday due to increased sunshine, but clouds will spread from west to east Thursday afternoon as the arctic front approaches the area.
An upper level trough is moving through our area, enhancing cloud cover, but mid-level dry air will prevent any rain from reaching the ground. Cooler air will continue to advect into our area under light northerly flow, and lows will dip into the 40s across our area by the early morning tomorrow.
ADD DRIZZLE SE THURS/ Surface winds over the Rio Grande Plains can be seen turning southerly, and the BL winds on the recent RUC runs and VAD wind profiles confirm that the low cloud deck will mix out a bit more this evening, then surge north again. Otherwise VFR conditions until Thu evening, at which time a MVFR stratus deck may develop behind another cold front. The aforementioned cold front will arrive at AUS around 22Z Thu, SAT around 00Z Fri, and DRT 03Z Fri. At the surface, winds were from the north to northeast behind a cold front. The frontal boundary will come back through as a warm front tonight. Another cold front will drop through our CWA Thursday.
Temperatures will be cold tonight and Thursday with lows again in the teens to low 20s and highs from the low 20s to around 30.
A trough of low pressure will pass through the Florida Keys overnight. Lack of apparent low level convergence ahead of the aforementioned approaching trough of low pressure should limit POPs to slight chance category tonight.