Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1054 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2015 Breezy west winds will develop this afternoon behind a passing cold front. Our cold front has passed through the Idaho Panhandle as of 11 AM. Model soundings from the NAM and GFS suggest some shallow surface based instability between 1 PM and 4 PM over the high terrain near Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint. Breezy winds this afternoon will be the most noticeable weather change following the cold front.
Temperatures are running a little bit cooler this afternoon. The area remains under a ridge of high pressure.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF DURING SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW IS DRY AND EVEN MORE SO ARE THE MID LEVELS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS WHICH IS THANKFULLY MOVING EAST. THERE ARE HANDFUL OF UPPER LOWS ROTATING AROUND US IN THE UNFOLDING UPPER PATTERN WITH ONE KEY PLAYER OVER N TEXAS MOVING S.
COOLING TREND STARTS TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Upper level low over Tennessee will continue to fill in as it drifts north-northwest. While the low itself will gradually lose its identity as its absorbed into the mean flow, it will continue to sling lobes of vorticity back to the west at us. expect cloud cover to increase through the day today so temperatures should be a bit cooler than yesterday, especially across the eastern Ozarks, east central Missouri, and southwest Illinois where clouds will be thickest and the potential for showers will be greatest. Used a blend of guidance for highs, but leaned toward the warmer end. ranging from the low 80s across northeast Missouri to the low and mid 70s in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
116 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.
408 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG A SOME WHAT ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WEST INTO NORTHERN MAINE. THE MODELS HAVE HAVE HAD A FAIR HANDLE ON THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY CREEPING NW. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BESIDES HIGH PRESSURE.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER TEXAS.
This will leave a highly amplified ridge currently extending from the Desert Southwest into the Dakotas, to sink southward into Kansas as a strong northern stream wave ripples along the Canadian border. This will allow the lee trough to gradually deepen over the western plains with winds gradually turning more southerly tonight. Sunday will then see a clear sky with a southwest downslope wind in the boundary layer ahead of the lee trough, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. 30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCTD PRECIP TO THE REGION. AN ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
138 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY DAYTIME CONDITIONS.
THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WRAPPING UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. THIS COULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AREA WIDE UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEXT MONTH.
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A low pressure system over central Tennessee is expected to slowly drift to the north tonight as it becomes absorbed into the upper flow. Spotty showers have remained west of IL so far today, despite the high resolution models indicating plenty of showers possible as far west as the Illinois River. The overall dry air mass in place across central Illinois ahead of the low seems to be too much for the weak forcing and limited moisture to overcome to produce rainfall. Satellite trends support increasing cloud cover from SE to NW tonight, which will work to keep lows a bit warmer than under clear conditions. However, despite the low overall rain threat, there will be a chance of precipitation from time to time.
CURRENTLY OUR UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR DAYS HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD NASHVILLE TODAY. AND GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY IMPINGE ON WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH WILL DROP A BIT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
253 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
222 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
MID MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INCREASES. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SO WILL WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER ARIZONA EXTENDING INTO THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO. A MID TROUGH AXIS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND A 500 MB LOW OVER THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AND BROAD 500 WEAKNESS OVERHEAD HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69E/HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR DUE TO STREAMER ACTIVITY OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY.
421 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL OREGON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RUN 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
104 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
Both lows are within a larger area of troughiness extending down into east Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoints are climbing into the lower 60s under this cloud cover and they also will spread over the entire area by midday. The 00Z GFS and NAM are wetter over the area on Sunday, but model soundings indicate that the mid-level ridge will be strengthening which should limit the potential instability layer.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE SRN PLAINS LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN/MON. WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER MAX TEMPS AND DRIER. AS THE MODELS LIFT IT BACK TO THE NORTH AS WARM FRONT ON WED.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
343 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL MAINTAIN DRY WARM WEATHER, FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE REGION TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL PUSH OVER THE TOP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
Broad upper trofiness is evident over most of the central CONUS, with the upper low that has been the main player in our weather the last couple days still filling in over east-central Kentucky. The next 24 hrs still shape up to be unsettled as we'll maintain the weak upper trofiness, and develop a baggy inverted surface trof over the Ohio Valley during the day on Sunday.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. UPPER LOW OVER TN VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN WHILE EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN TN WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT ENE THROUGH THE LOWER/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS AN DISJOINTED OPEN WAVE BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOWER 80S. A MUCH ADVERTISED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO HELP SURGE MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION.
157 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
339 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
NOT MUCH RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT SOME SHOWERS STARTING TO POP AT 18Z AND EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL LOWER THE HIGH POPS PRESENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
WILL SEE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
COLD FRONT BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN ORPHANED UPPER LOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. 75 TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE COOL START TO THE MORNING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U. DISRUPTING THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LOW.
314 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL RIDGED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING TENNESSEE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD WI. THOUGH READINGS MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY IN EASTERN WI.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST WITH A UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST, A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH IS STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS RIDGE EXPANDS FROM THE ROCKIES EAST. TOMORROW WITH SUNNY SKIES AND RIDGE EXPANDING OVERHEAD.
257 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A seasonably warm afternoon is underway across this region at this hour, with temperatures ranging from the low 80s west to the upper 70s east, where a large cloud deck has started to move west into the forecast area. These clouds are associated with a weakening area of upper level low pressure, which is meandering its way across the lower Ohio Valley.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. BUT WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
339 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT.
605 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
123 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TOMORROW THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO FUNNEL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DIMINISHING CLOSED LOW/VORT MAX.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE ENHANCED HEATING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL AIM FOR MID 80S IN THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVES WILL FINISH PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SET UP A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
Embedded in this northerly flow is another weakening upper level low, currently moving from Kansas south/southwest into Oklahoma. With the low moving through the area, clouds and possible rain should help to keep temperatures a couple or few degrees cooler across most of the area, especially the western Big Country and Concho Valley.
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS APPROACHING THE NW LATE TONIGHT NEAR SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS AS AIRMASS WAS WARMER THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH GOOD MIXING TO 850 MB.
Isolated areas of frost and freezing temperatures will be possible in some valley locations in western Montana. A weak cold front will bring breezy winds this afternoon to all TAF sites. Winds at ridge tops will be as high as 35 kts through this evening. A few light showers will also be possible in northwest Montana and could briefly obscure the higher terrain.
641 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY. WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR KCHA. THE UPPER LOW NEAR KCHA WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DISSIPATED NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ENERGY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINES WITH SOME OTHER DISTURBANCES TO FORM A LARGE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF ENANCED LIFT/FORCING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA. DAYTIME HEATING COULD BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS IN SPOTS. MODELS TRY TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD DECK DURING AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY BUT THAT COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
104 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY DAYTIME CONDITIONS.
An upper level low over the southeast with energy around the low extending into the OH valley to near the MO bootheel. Temperatures were in the mid 50s to low 60s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Will see closed low to our southeast open up with some energy tracking northwest into eastern MO later today.
MEDIUM SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET.
642 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
829 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. NAM DEPICTS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGH. WHEREAS GFS AND HRRR DEPICT A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH WITH RAIN LARGELY STAYING OVER THE WATERS. THUS FAR NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH TROUGH AS COMPARED TO OBSERVED.
956 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS SPRAWLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING FLORIDA.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE GULF. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL DEEPEN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 50S INLAND WEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST TX TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure is moving slowly southeast across eastern Colorado. Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range locally. The models are a few degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.
401 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE SECOND TROUGH HELPS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF HAS MANIFEST THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CIGS. THE WINDOW TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO PROMOTE THE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NARROWING IN SPACE AND TIME.
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH AN OPEN LAKE AND SOUTH-SOUTH WEST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF A MID- LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. PERHAPS APPROACHING FREEZING AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT LOWER LEVELS WARMER AIR IS STREAMING IN WITH THE 850MB TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE TODAY AS THIS BASICALLY ELEVATED WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
637 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
A TROUGH IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BUT STILL ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN STATES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WILL BE THE NEW NORM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN US.
Wetter and cooler weather expected middle-to-late this week. Weather across northern California continues to be dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific. Moisture riding over the top of this ridge is bringing high cloudiness to the region. Very warm weather is expected the next few days as high pressure builds into the area.
SOUNDINGS IN THE WEST INDICATE THAT FZDZ IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADD A MENTION WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN.
/ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. THE PARENT TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF THUNDERSNOW. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER TONIGHT.
CURRENT SITUATION/ANALYSIS -- A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CELL COVERS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO NEAR 40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A LITTLE SUN AND WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A DECENT DAY. BY TONIGHT ANOTHER JET MAX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL BRING A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. SO WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING IF SOME OF THIS WERE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING GENERALLY RAIN BELOW ABOUT 4500 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE SO FAR BEING REPORTED IN MCCALL AND AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND TAMARACK. SNOW LEVEL WILL ONLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WARM FRONT KICKS OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN WHAT IT REALLY IS AS 850-700MB WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND OREGON REACH AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFINED TO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON MONDAY.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN WIND PRONE AREAS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW LLVL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NE COLORADO BY LATE THIS EVENING. SINCE IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL RECEIVE RESPECTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND LEE-SIDE SLOPES OF THE SNOWY RANGE.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW BACK OFF THIS HIGH. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM ABOUT 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING TROUGH. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S BY LATE MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AND MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ENSUES.
Winds will become elevated and shift to the north later this morning as a cold front moves into the area.
A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM.