Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front is just on our border this morning as winds have already shifted to the northwest across much of MS with dewpoints about 10 degrees lee than what is in place across Central Alabama. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler in the north and about 5 to 7 degrees in the southeast as clouds will hang out a little longer in the southeast.
241 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest with a flat upper ridging along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, a ridge axis was sliding east of the area as high pressure weakened. Except for areas where the stratus has lingered, dewpoints have mixed out into the lower and middle 40s. For highs Thursday, have trended them warmer. Initial upper wave pushing east across the northern Plains settles a cold front into the area late Thursday night, with all guidance agreeing it will hang up across the area for the next few periods as it becomes parallel to the mid- and upper-level flow.
Main weather maker will be the cold front that moves east through the CWA this evening. Despite more sunshine, temperatures will average about 15 degrees cooler than today.
308 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Low clouds are dissipating in a general west to east fashion this afternoon with surface ridging sitting over the area. But timing the clouds exiting and the winds increasing on the backside of the ridge is uncertainty still.
Strong inversion develops this evening and looks to trap the low level moisture/stratus deck into the morning Thursday, particularly across the eastern half of the CWA where the stratus currently resides. Confident that the eastern portions of the CWA will remain under the low stratus through at least 12z Thursday, with it lingering and trying to dissipate b/t 12-15z when the WAA begins to develop.
The low stratus clouds are expected to linger into Thursday across the area, trapped under the low level inversion.
Will keep some cloud cover in these areas going through most of the day, and knock a couple degrees off the highs in these locations as well. Otherwise, low level flow will turn southerly today, bringing warmer and more moist conditions to the area, with highs generally in the 70s, and lows tonight mainly in the 50s.
Accordingly I have lowered the high temps today closer the HRRR-E and RAP, and more in line with a local temp study. The surface/low level ridge axis creeps eastward, with the easterly flow component in its wake keeping clouds/high values of low level RH locked across the area into west central MO. If the low clouds clear out of central MO early enough in the day, could see some fog develop.
257 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 An upper level ridge will continue across the central and eastern US through Thursday. Plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to easily rise into the low to mid 70s by late afternoon.
These winds are not as favorable for warming as yesterday so going a touch cooler across the area for highs today, around 60. As a result temperatures overnight will be 5 or so degrees warmer under the clouds than those to the west, mid 40s verses around 40 in E ND tonight.
Drier and cooler air will push into the area tonight behind the front as a 1022 MB ridge develops over St.
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather pattern over the South this afternoon. Most locations will stay in the 70s today, near or slightly below normal, with just other southern counties and parishes possibility pushing into the lower 80s in the next hour of two.
1224 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Upper level analysis has ridging over the central CONUS with a strong trof entering the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, lee trof is located across central Montana into northeast Wyoming with temperatures at 4am mainly in the 40s. Warmer air will continue to build into the area today, ahead of an approaching cold front. Surface lee trof will produce breezy south-southwest winds in some areas today, especially across parts of northeast WY and south central SD. A cold front will cross the area late tonight and Thursday morning, bringing much cooler air for the latter part of the week.
315 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Temperatures have gradually cooled today in response to the cold front that has been moving through Middle Tennessee. Clouds have been broken to scattered for the eastern half of area this afternoon which has partially contributed to the warmer temperatures for some areas east of I-65.
Clouds on the backside of the low have remained trapped under an inversion, with light east-southeasterly low-level flow. That said, the saturated layer is just over 1 km deep and guidance does show a bit of convergence in the low-levels along with some slight isentropic lift, so cannot completely rule out drizzle and have left patchy drizzle in the forecast for much of the area through mid-morning.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Low to mid level moisture will remain high across northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande valley tonight with the 500mb ridge across the northern Gulf coast providing an easterly flow aloft. the combination of a stationary frontal boundary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and a coastal trough across the western Gulf will some elevated. across portions of the lower Texas coast and offshore into Thurs.
340 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 A mid-level ridge over the western Great Lakes and Ontario will continue to shift east overnight into Thursday. It's cold front will move into the northern High Plains overnight and into the Dakotas Thursday. An inversion due to strong warming aloft, combined with a surge of moisture in the low-levels, is expected to develop widespread overcast cloud cover by late tonight, especially areas of east of central and north-central Minnesota. Fog is possible along and near the higher terrain of the North Shore because of the low stratus. Highs will range from the middle 50s in the Arrowhead and upper 50s in northwest WI, to the low 60s in central and north-central MN.
318 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 The unseasonably warm weather will continue through the short term with only a mild reprieve as a weak cold front brings a slightly drier airmass to the northern half of the area.
Today Through Thursday Night Breezy NW winds continued to usher much cooler air into AR overnight, behind the CDFNT that moved thru Tue. Look for another cool night tngt as the center of the highs works EWD acrs MO. The high center wl shift E away fm the area on Thu.
Always seems to be tough to clear out the lower levels with these more fall like systems. Thu-early Sat: A warming trend is expected Thu-Fri as an upper level ridge builds over Mid-South and Midwest with a return of highs in the 80s late in the week.
/issued 321 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ A large upper level low pressure system over Wisconsin this afternoon will continue to lift northeast across the Great Lakes tonight. Upper level heights will build on Tuesday as high pressure spreads into the region. Dry weather along with much warmer temperatures are expected with highs reaching into the middle and upper 70s.
1025 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A strong cold front crosses today. Upper low with unsettled and much cooler weather to end the work week. The cold front has just about passed through the CWA completely as well. Cooler, but overall drier weather to start the short term period, with high pressure briefly in control.
Upper ridge builds over the Rockies on Wed, keeping the forecast area dry for the rest of the week.
1142 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A cold front will move offshore this evening.
Expect sprinkles in the valleys, with light showers across the higher terrain, tapering off overnight. A weak warm front will cross over the region on Tuesday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and a chance of sprinkles during the afternoon.
704 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Strong low pressure over the nations midsection will lift out across the Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday.
611 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Departing upper-level low will take the cooler and wetter weather with it, with improving conditions on their way.
Temperatures will be more seasonal on Tuesday mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
Some of the colder spots could experience some lower 40s, while most of the area should see lows in the mid/upper 40s, cooler than average lows in the mid 50s.
723 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A strong cold front crosses today. Upper low with unsettled and much cooler weather to end the work week. The cold front has just about passed through the CWA completely as well. Cooler, but overall drier weather to start the short term period, with high pressure briefly in control.
Low cloud slowly clearing across northeast Kansas today with upper low nearing the Great Lakes. West-northwest winds close to Advisory levels at times, but the continued exit of the large cyclone should allow speeds to diminish.
/issued 132 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ In the upper levels the region will remain on east side of upper ridge centered over CA.
915 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Cooler air will spill in tonight behind the strong cold front. An update was issued to adjust POPs as residual showers will be shunted east of the ridges by the advancing front.
739 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 An upper level low pressure system continues to push toward the region with cool temps, cloudy skies and scattered rain showers. Clearing and cooler temperatures are expected behind the low pressure system with lows dipping into the upper 30s Tuesday night.
For Tuesday, an upper level disturbance will move southward through the region as a warm front moves northward into the area. Some small hail is possible, but think it is on the low side, so left out of the grids for now.
High pressure over eastern portions of the forecast area will move gradually off to the east during the period while remaining in control of the sensible weather. /issued 335 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over lower Acadiana at the moment, providing a light and variable low-level flow over the forecast area. As a result, mins tonight look to run several degrees warmer, especially across the wrn 1/3 of the forecast area. Rain chances return to the area Tuesday night as a trof digging through the Rockies pushes ewd to the srn Plains.
At the surface, a trough extended from the low southward across eastern IA with area radars and surface observations showing organized showers along this axis and scattered showers out ahead across northern IL into Lake MI. Behind this trough, west winds were sustained around 20 mph gusting into the 30 mph range over central IA moving into eastern IA in the tight surface pressure gradient. Tuesday, skies should gradually clear from southwest to northeast during the day as the cyclonic NW flow at the surface gives way to a weak ridge over central IA by evening. For now, will limit highs to the lower 50s in northwest Illinois, ranging to the lower 60s in the south and west, where the combination of in-building weak warm advection and sunshine is maximized. Beginning of the period will feature high pressure and quiet weather.
1143 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 This afternoon, an intense cyclone is centered over Southern WI. The vicious NE-lifting cyclone has placed the Great Plains under a strong NW regime. Tonight & Tue: All remains quiet across the KS Neighborhood as NW flow becomes Wly tonight then shifts back toward the NW on Tue as weak high pressure spreads E across the Plains. Thu-Next Mon: All will be quiet across the neighborhood as an ultra-high amplitude ridge moves slowly E from the Rockies to the Great Plains.
742 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Aviation Cool and unsettled weather with showers will continue through Tuesday as an upper level low pressure system will move across the northern great lakes region. Showers will taper off Tuesday evening as a high pressure ridge builds in.
Some locations around the Pine Belt may even be able to hit 80 since the bulk of cooler advection aloft in the wake of yesterday's cold front is focused well north of the coast. Gusty west to southwest winds this afternoon across especially northern zones have been partially a product of deep mixing, although tight (but now slackening) pressure gradient south of Great Lakes low pressure have helped to boost gusts as well. Tomorrow will find the Lower Mississippi Valley in a regime of very temporary short wave ridging aloft behind the departing system and another starting to organize in the Southern Plains.
615 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a closed low over eastern Iowa with a trough of low pressure extending south into northern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressures and ridging were noted over the eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic. Temperatures in the vicinity of this snow cover have struggled to reach the lower 50s this afternoon. West of the band, readings were in the lower to middle 60s. Highs will generally be in the lower 60s across the area.
Broad mid/upper level low across the wrn Great Lakes will shift eastward overnight with a trailing mid level vort lobe moving toward central FL after midnight. Will keep pops generally in the low scattered range with a slight chance for a lightning storm to redevelop overnight generally north of a Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne line.
Cold front still back to the west over sw Ga and the Fl panhandle. Drier cooler air behind the cold front will result in a nice day on Tuesday with temperatures in the 80s and lower humidity. Chance of showers 05z-10z as cold front moves across the area shifting winds to the nw. A cold front will cross the waters late tonight with south winds shifting to the nw by morning.
901 PM PDT Mon May 1 2017 As a weak weather system exits overnight, high pressure will build over the region starting Tuesday.
The pressure gradient will continue to relax on Tuesday as weak high pressure slides into the region from the Plains and the stacked low departs well into Canada.
High pressure will gradually move over the region during the upcoming week bringing a significant warming trend to the area. Over the weekend the next storm will usher in cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and increasing chances for precipitation.
Upper trough across the Great Lakes with surface ridging building into the southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 77 53 83 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 73 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 49 73 51 78 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 10.
Rain ahead of a warm front will reach the coast Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Winds will remain light as high pressure pushes into the region. Incoming trough will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop along this front by late in the period.
At the same time, an upper level trough is developing from the Rockies to Baja. Much warmer overnight lows expected tonight and tomorrow as moisture pushes back into the area. High temperatures Tuesday should be similar to today with highs in the low 90s west and mid and upper 80s east. Model guidance does indicate a decreasing period this afternoon and evening, and will plan to let the high risk fall later this evening as long as periods decrease as expected.
High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move slowly off to the east. /issued 335 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over lower Acadiana at the moment, providing a light and variable low-level flow over the forecast area. As a result, mins tonight look to run several degrees warmer, especially across the wrn 1/3 of the forecast area. Rain chances return to the area Tuesday night as a trof digging through the Rockies pushes ewd to the srn Plains.
1139 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Upper level low pressure continues to pivot to the northeast into the southern Great Lakes this afternoon. Winds have also remained brisk out of the west behind this departing low pressure system.
Steep low pressure is situated over the Great Lakes region. From here, weak upper level troughing extends back northwest into the central Dakotas. At the surface, weak troughing also extends from the central plains into western ND. Diurnal convection has fired along the surface and upper troughs across much of western and central ND in strong low level lapse rates. Utilized the lower end of the spectrum for low temperature guidance tonight, undercutting our given guidance by a few degrees most areas.
859 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Deep upper low over eastern Wisconsin this evening continues to move away from central Illinois. Deep 993 mb low with upper level closed low vertically stacked in SW Wisconsin will continue to move ENE over the upcoming day. The cold pool combined with upper level disturbances wrapping cyclonically around the upper low will keep scattered showers around the area until near midnight along/north of I-74, while isolated to scattered showers extend southward through much of the area for late afternoon/early evening. Cooler temperatures and frost should be absent due to the persistent pressure gradient keeping breezy WSW winds 10-20 mph through the night.
The front will usher in brisk west to northwest winds and cooler air for Tuesday.
For 06z Aviation discussion below Large low pressure system is stacked and centered over Wisconsin this afternoon. Obviously our weather for the next 24 hours will be dictated by this cyclone. It will continue on its northeastern course through tomorrow, with conditions slowly showing signs of improvement as the low pushes farther away. As is usual with snow showers with above freezing surface temps and the p-type is highly dependent on adiabatic forcing in the stronger showers. In the big picture, we'll see the upper trough over the center of the country slowly shift east as ridging works in from the west. Toward the end of the forecast that ridge flattens and the flow looks to become split with cutoff upper lows over the southwest and northeast parts of the country.
Winds will decrease this evening as upper level low continues to move off to the east and high pressure settles in. /Issued 415 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Mostly clear skies and breezy westerly winds were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon as the backside of the upper level low lifted northeast into the Great Lakes Region.
702 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Strong low pressure over the nations midsection will lift out across the Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday.
16Z RAP indicates the frontogenesis will move east with the area of low pressure and rapidly weaken by early evening.
The Hires Arw was catching the temperatures today the best so used it as the basis for the low temperatures but could easily see temperatures be colder if there is not a lot of cloud cover. So again used the Hires Arw to start and adjusted slightly but tended to go cooler than the majority of guidance, especially where the snow cover was. Tuesday night, slight chances for rain showers due to a broad trough passing over the area. The western and southern fringes of the CWA will have the highest chances, but there is a chance that the bulk of the precipitation will be to our south based on current model guidance.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were found across the area under an unstable northwest flow this afternoon with cooler air aloft and a jet max moving overhead providing lift.
859 PM MDT Mon May 1 2017 There is still some light showers across the far ne plains this evening from exiting trof and jet streak across Nebraska.
This should keep temperatures from dropping below the mid 30s(F) across west central Kansas with the lower 40s(F) more likely in south central Kansas.
The boundary will continue to progress east as the low lifts out. Breezy to gusty winds are still expected overnight behind the cold front as profiles remain mostly mixed.
636 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Departing low pressure will bring very gradually clearing skies this evening, and perhaps a quick uptick in wind gusts before decreasing diurnally around sunset. This low will be a bit faster to eject eastward but then will deepen and wrap into a cut-off low during the latter half of the work week, potentially providing another round of significant rainfall.
742 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A large low pressure system passing north of the region will result in cool and breezy conditions through Tuesday.
946 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Strong low pressure over the nations midsection will lift out across the Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday.
826 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A cold front will cross the region this evening bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. Cooler high pressure will build in behind the front tonight through midweek.
/Issued 315 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017/ The cold front has just gone through metro ATL and will continue to track eastward through the remainder of the afternoon. Expect lows in the low/mid 50s, apart from the mid/upper 40s in the mountains. mid 70s to low 80s; cooler air across the higher terrain.
1134 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Departing upper-level low will take the cooler and wetter weather with it, with improving conditions on their way.
This dry airmass in wake of stg upper low ejecting into Great Lakes area will be short lived as moisture quickly returns with next upper low moving just north of area. This low will not be as deep as the previous low which brought svr wx to the area this wknd. Once this upper low exits to the ne, deep nw flow will anchor drier wx into the region for the next svrl days, and have no rain chances at this time thru the extended fcst period. Seasonally cooler temps can be expected thru most of the upcoming wknd.
850 PM MST Mon May 1 2017 Dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and generally light winds will develop throughout the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
638 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Deep 993 mb low with upper level closed low vertically stacked in SW Wisconsin will continue to move ENE over the upcoming day. The cold pool combined with upper level disturbances wrapping cyclonically around the upper low will keep scattered showers around the area until near midnight along/north of I-74, while isolated to scattered showers extend southward through much of the area for late afternoon/early evening. Cooler temperatures and frost should be absent due to the persistent pressure gradient keeping breezy WSW winds 10-20 mph through the night.
638 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 This afternoon, an intense cyclone is centered over Southern WI. The vicious NE-lifting cyclone has placed the Great Plains under a strong NW regime. Tonight & Tue: All remains quiet across the KS Neighborhood as NW flow becomes Wly tonight then shifts back toward the NW on Tue as weak high pressure spreads E across the Plains. Thu-Next Mon: All will be quiet across the neighborhood as an ultra-high amplitude ridge moves slowly E from the Rockies to the Great Plains. Deep upper low is currently lifting across the Great Lakes with strong NW flow aloft over the Plains.
as afternoon temperatures reach the average upper 80s to lower 90s (early May norm maxTs are in the lower 80s).
1100 PM MDT Mon May 1 2017 Weak upper wave crossing the area today producing some mid-level clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles/flurries over the higher peaks, though have yet to see precip appear in any mountain obs/web cams. On Tuesday, stronger upper level trough approaches the area, and dynamic lift will increase across the state in the afternoon. 700 mb temps well above 0C suggest snow levels will stay very high, with minor accums limited to the higher peaks.
905 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A strong cold front will pass through the region tonight. High pressure will bring cooler and drier weather during the middle of the week. Low pressure will move into the area late in the week. Cold front will cross the area overnight, with still some showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. Low pressure will build over southern Canada Tuesday and this will carve out an upper-level trough over our area. Gusty west to southwest winds are expected around the low over our area. it will turn out cooler and noticeably drier.