Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will curb our high temperature and mixing potential, leaving our winds primarily gradient driven again (so, a blend of short term guidance should be adequate for the wind forecast; and this same blend seems to better capture the cooler temperatures expected in southeastern parts of the forecast area due to lingering cloud cover).
331 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 The forecast area is firmly under high pressure as subsidence on the back side of an exiting trough and upper-level ridging are continuing to build into the region. Temperatures will remain cool as post-frontal CAA continues to filter cooler temperatures today and into tonight. Highs today are still forecast to remain in mid-40s with overnight lows in the low to mid-20s with a few teens mixed in in the more sheltered valleys. Friday will feature warmer temperatures as southwesterly flow builds across the region and warmer temperatures are advected into the forecast area. This southwesterly flow is attributed to a trough digging out of the Rockies overnight Thursday into early Friday.
128 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 High pressure will move across the area today and head off to the east tonight.
1122 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 (Today through Friday Night ) To begin the period, high pressure over the area, will slide to the east through much of the day today. With that said, this pattern will be short lived as a cold front pushes into the state by Thursday night.
The increased dewpoints along with extensive cloud cover will result in much warmer overnight low temperatures. Expect increasing southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph on Friday, ahead of an approaching cold front.
Temperatures will drop off quickly during the evening hours, with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 30s in most locations by early Friday morning.
A few scattered showers will be possible across far SE OK/NW AR Friday and persist ahead of strong cold front, which will sweep through the area Friday evening into the overnight hours.
233 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 Cooler and dry conditions are expected to finish out the work week.
1127 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 - Strong winds expected with a strong cold frontal passage Friday afternoon. Broad upper level ridging translates west to east across the CONUS today though Friday. This will be ahead of a potent upper trough moving onshore the west coast. This upper trough quickly moves into the Northern Plains as an open wave Friday. A strong arctic cold front will surge southeast into Nebraska by Friday afternoon on the backside of the trough. The highest potential to see a gust that strong would be across far southwest Nebraska where boundary layer mixing looks to be the best.
1119 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 High pressure brings drier and colder weather through Friday morning, then milder during the afternoon.
110 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 High pressure will provide dry weather through Friday, with warmer temperatures tomorrow.
Low level winds will transition to out of the south and southeast tonight as the high moves east. a few degrees warmer than today from the warm air advection and southerly flow. Dew points will start to increase on Friday as a more southerly brings about warmer temperatures during the afternoon.
Gusty south winds will bring milder air into the region Friday as a cold front approaches from Minnesota.
1142 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 Key Messages: - Getting warmer and more windy, strongest gusts Friday night - Precipitation chances return Friday/Friday night - Cold returns for start of weekend Today through Friday night: Warmer, windy, and return of precip chances Southerly return flow will advect in warmer conditions throughout today into tomorrow. Wind gusts closer to 40 mph will be possible in wake of the cold frontal passage. On the higher end of the ensemble guidance, the 30. Ahead of a very pronounced surface cold front, portions of southern Wisconsin into far eastern Iowa may receive some light drizzle in the afternoon.
102 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 Aviation Forecast concerns deal with precipitation Friday night ahead of the next cold front. In its wake is ridging which has caused the lake effect snow showers to end; radar is pretty much devoid of echos at present. So, we're looking at a dry day and a half until the approach of the next cold front later Friday. A short wave crossing the Rockies will develop a lee cyclone over the Dakotas before it moves northeast across the western Great Lakes.
1235 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 Cooler and dry conditions are expected to finish out the work week.
Mid morning surface analysis showed a 1036mb high centered over the Tennessee valley that will continue to provide a dry northeast wind today helping maintain cooler than normal temperatures. After a chilly start to today with temperatures near freezing, we'll see highs reach the 50s for the most part, but increasing cirrus associated with an active subtropical jet stream may hamper warming a bit, especially north of the I-20 corridor.
The cold front has pushed south of the area this morning, and has pushed the clouds and showers out of the region with it. Strong northeasterly winds are developing behind the morning cold front with gusts 25 to 30 kt expected through the rest of today. The forecast point at Astor has fallen to Minor Flood Stage but briefly returned to Moderate Flood Stage yesterday afternoon as the cold front passed over the gauge location.
(Through Friday) High pressure is in control of the weather pattern through Friday with elevated northeasterly flow this afternoon likely quieting down after sunset across the area. Before this deck possibly develops, the drier conditions in place and decreasing winds should at least allow for a few hours of radiational cooling in place so kept temperatures a little closer to the cooler guidance overnight.
A trough moving through the northern Great Basin will bring breezy to windy conditions to the area today and tonight, with the windiest areas being lee of terrain. Winds should come down rather quickly Friday, as the trough axis clears the eastern border. A bit of Pacific moisture has been caught up in this trough, which will bring some light, upslope rain and snow showers to the Kaibab later tonight and Friday morning.
In the mid to upper levels, the center of the ridge was located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba. The aforementioned mid to upper level ridge is expected to meander about the Gulf of Mexico over the course of the next seven days, fluctuating in strength and size as it does so.
A warm front is trying to lift northward across the areas this afternoon with southwesterly and lower 50s moving into south central SD. Temperatures north of the warm front are still above average for this time of year. An upper level trough, crossing over the Pac NW, will approach the region later tonight. Southerly flow in the lower levels will continue, thus keeping temperatures rather mild with lows mostly in the 20s. By 12Z Friday, a cold front should be moving into north central South Dakota, producing gusty northwesterly winds and the potential for light snow.
A trough moving through the northern Great Basin will bring breezy to windy conditions to the area today and tonight, with the windiest areas being lee of terrain. The winds should come down rather quickly Friday, as the trough axis clears the eastern border. A bit of Pacific moisture has been caught up in this trough, which will bring some light, upslope rain and snow showers to the Kaibab later tonight and Friday morning. Snow levels will be around 11000 feet, limiting any accumulation will be over the highest peaks.
Mountain snow and valley rain are expected this afternoon into tonight as a trough of low pressure passes across Central California.
A quiet night is expected as a high pressure settles over the region. Afternoon highs on Friday will be a bit warmer than Thursday, upper 70s to lower 80s are expected for all locations. Upper-level ridging is building back in across the Florida peninsula with breezy ENE flow today. Continued veering of the wind is expected as the ridge axis slides eastward.
727 PM MST Thu Dec 1 2022 An upper level trough has moved onshore into the Pacific Northwest, and this trough is beginning to influence the region with snowfall.
237 PM MST Thu Dec 1 2022 An upper level trough has moved onshore into the Pacific Northwest, and this trough is beginning to influence the region with snowfall.
623 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 High pressure will provide dry weather through Friday, with warming temperature.
We will be transitioning to a warmer and more active pattern for the weekend.
Short Term: Key Messages in short term: *Strong Winds Friday with a cold front passage *Slight chance of light snow across far northern Nebraska Fri.
At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient over the state has resulted in gusty southerly winds bringing warmer air into the 50s.
444 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 High pressure will provide dry weather through Friday, with warmer temperatures tomorrow.
621 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 (Through Friday) High pressure is in control of the weather pattern through Friday with elevated northeasterly flow this afternoon likely quieting down after sunset across the area. Before this deck possibly develops, the drier conditions in place and decreasing winds should at least allow for a few hours of radiational cooling in place so kept temperatures a little closer to the cooler guidance overnight.
Latest CAMs suggest at least low potential for measurable precip across far SE OK into west-central AR thru Friday morning as the low levels continue to moisten with time. A few scattered showers will be possible across far SE OK/NW AR Friday and persist ahead of strong cold front, which will sweep through the area Friday evening into the overnight hours.
The Upper Mississippi River Valley remains sandwiched between high pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our northwest, creating a strong pressure gradient over our area that will persist through Friday. Friday Night Very Strong Winds/Wintry Mix: There is good agreement between the short range models that the mid-tropospheric trough will swing through Friday night. Temperatures mostly in the 30s and 40s will rapidly fall to below freezing Friday evening. By 06Z, the 100% probability of below freezing temperatures has pushed across the forecast area. There is an hour or two window with small freezing drizzle probabilities during the transition between rain and snow. The low level flow out of the southwest is shifting to the northwest, thus strong wind gusts from the south will drop off early in the evening before picking up again from the northwest and strengthen.
Clearing skies will aid in widespread freezing temperatures and frost tonight across Northwest California.
623 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 (Through Tonight) Strong high pressure to the north will slowly move more to the northeast through Tonight, with a weak inverted trough over the coastal waters. Lows will range from the lower 40s over inland SE GA, to around 60 over coastal NE FL.
However, a large upper ridge remains parked across the Central Gulf of Mexico, which has resulted in southwesterly flow aloft remaining over the region. Because of the southerly winds and increasing clouds/rain, we can expect warmer overnight temps, with lows generally in the 40s.
On Friday, a trough in the eastern Atlantic waters will cutoff from the main flow. The pressure gradient between the high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and the trough in the eastern Atlantic has resulted in fresh to occasionally strong breezes in the Key's coastal waters, which has yielded small craft advisories for all offshore and nearshore waters of Key West. The high will promote fresh to occasionally strong northeasterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters Friday through the weekend.
(Tonight) Temps in a few locations have already dropped to their forecasted lows, thanks in part to dew pt trends in the lower/mid 20s. The thin nature of the high clouds have allowed for some radiational cooling as well, which has aided temps falling into the mid/upper 30s for many spots. Look for temps to drop a few more degrees heading into the overnight hrs, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 30s, under some persistent high clouds.
715 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 Cooler and dry conditions are expected to finish out the work week.
The various models have been trending faster with the upper level trough and cold advection and this may limit speeds. Also, in the wake of the cold front, there will be a period of an hour or so when winds could gust to between 50 and 60 mph. Confidence was not high enough to upgrade the high wind watch to a warning yet. Given the downslope, we continued to go with warmer temperatures than any of the model guidance that all struggle with downslope events, with lower to mid 70s for highs across most of southwest and central Kansas.
(This evening through Friday Night) Where it hasn't already, cloud cover will overspread the region tonight as high pressure moves further away from the area. Heading into Friday, southeast winds will draw Gulf moisture back into the region as a warm front moves inland. With warmer air moving over the colder shelf waters, expect sea fog to develop and spread inland Friday night.
Winter storm continues across the high terrain of eastern Idaho this afternoon as southerly flow continues to feed Pacific Moisture into the Central Mountains, along the Divide and into the eastern highlands. Despite the lower totals, no changes were made to ongoing winter weather hazards however as gusty winds are still expected with the front and as things transition to snow, hazardous driving conditions are expected.
600 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 (This evening through Friday) Early afternoon upper-level analysis shows a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This trough is progged to continue towards the central Plains. As the aforementioned trough nears the Rockies, a lee cyclone will begin to form, and the height gradient over the region will begin to compact.
309 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 Short Term: Key Messages in short term: *Strong Winds Friday with a cold front passage *Slight chance of light snow across far northern Nebraska Fri.
1259 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Dry weather continues through Friday with high pressure and warmer temperatures. Rain and gusty winds are expected late Friday night and Saturday with a crossing cold front.
Wind will increase today in response to a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure over the Plains moves toward the Great Lakes. Model ensemble wind gust progs have nudged down a bit but still support wind gusts over 40 MPH especially after midnight as the cold front arrives. NamNest and HRRR shows light rain showers developing over the western cwa late this evening just ahead of the cold front as condensation pressure deficits take a nose dive.
1213 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 (Through Friday) High pressure is in control of the weather pattern through Friday with elevated northeasterly flow this afternoon likely quieting down after sunset across the area. Before this deck possibly develops, the drier conditions in place and decreasing winds should at least allow for a few hours of radiational cooling in place so kept temperatures a little closer to the cooler guidance overnight.
Otherwise, we are on track for an end to the work week either way with a little measurable rain as the warm front lifts back northward across the I-20 corridor of Texas first and then Louisiana.
359 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Cooler and dry conditions are expected today. Saturday is the warmer of the two weekend days ahead of the next cold front. High pressure over the region with fair and cool conditions in store for today. Given the recent moist bias, went with the warmer solution. High pressure will still be dominant however and conditions will calm shortly after sunset. Cold front will be just off to the west of Appalachians Saturday morning, with the front then moving across the cwa Saturday night.
A large trough of low pressure is moving from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin this evening. Temperatures this evening are as much as 18 degrees warmer than last night at this time (KGCN). A trough moving through the northern Great Basin will bring breezy to windy conditions to the area today and tonight, with the windiest areas being lee of terrain. The winds should come down rather quickly Friday, as the trough axis clears the eastern border. A bit of Pacific moisture has been caught up in this trough, which will bring some light, upslope rain and snow showers to the Kaibab later tonight and Friday morning. Snow levels will be around 11000 feet, limiting any accumulation will be over the highest peaks. Strongest winds can be expected downwind of the higher terrain.
Much more mild night tonight, as southerly flow returns to the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient over the state has resulted in gusty southerly winds bringing warmer air into the 50s. CAA behind the front brings much cooler temperatures for Saturday with highs in the 30s. High pressure overhead keeps winds much quieter as well.
Cold front passed through Jerome/ID late today and rain changed to snow, but the back edge of pcpn at 8 PM MST was still Salmon-Fairfield-Winnemucca. Farther north, snow was still falling at McCall, and there were scattered instability snow showers in eastern Oregon under the upper trough axis.
Tonight and Friday: Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough moving onto the Pacific northwest coast this afternoon with largely weak southwesterly flow across the western and central US. The above mentioned trough is expected to move into the northern Plains over the next 24-hrs, pushing a strong cold front into the region. This will come through much of the forecast area during or just after peak heating, allowing highs to top out in the mid 40s across our north to the low 60s in our south.
Latest CAMs suggest at least low potential for measurable precip across far SE OK into west-central AR thru Friday morning as the low levels continue to moisten with time.
356 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Dry weather continues today with high pressure and warmer temperatures. Rain and gusty winds are expected late tonight and Saturday with a crossing cold front.
1056 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 (This evening through Friday) Early afternoon upper-level analysis shows a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This trough is progged to continue towards the central Plains. As the aforementioned trough nears the Rockies, a lee cyclone will begin to form, and the height gradient over the region will begin to compact.
631 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 High pressure over the region today will give way to a cold frontal passage tonight and Saturday bringing another round of showers and gusty winds. Another high pressure system builds later this weekend after another chance for lake effect snow. High pressure over the region will slide eastward tonight giving way to an approaching cold frontal boundary. Model soundings continue to show a warm nose around 850 mb which would contribute to any frozen precipitation being in the form of freezing rain. However, the timing of showers looks slightly delayed compared to yesterday coupled with only a few locations in the western Catskills looking at temperatures near freezing when the showers arrive. Strong cold air advection will be ongoing Saturday night behind the cold front.
811 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Dry weather continues today with high pressure and warmer temperatures. Rain and gusty winds are expected late tonight and Saturday with a crossing cold front.
Scattered snow showers continue this morning as moisture slowly decreases behind an exiting trough.
(Today through Saturday Night ) To begin the period, high pressure has shifted east of the state allowing for a trough to dive into to the area from the northwest. This will bring a cold front into the state late Friday into Saturday. Expect scattered showers through the day today as southerly flow around the high returns moisture into the state. The cold front is expected to move into the state early Saturday continuing some of those on and off showers.
Compressional heating out ahead of a surging, dry cold front later tonight will lift temperatures into the 70s area wide this afternoon. The dry cold front will arrive across the southern Texas Panhandle around midnight tonight and clear our FA to the south by sunrise tomorrow morning, setting up for a much cooler afternoon than we'll experience today, with 15-20 mph northeast winds when you wake up Saturday morning.
725 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Dry weather continues today with high pressure and warmer temperatures. Rain and gusty winds are expected late tonight and Saturday with a crossing cold front.
Southerly flow, occasionally gusty, has brought a considerably warmer airmass in from what we had 24 hours ago. Temperatures will slowly climb to the upper 30s or lower 40s today and dew points will rise above freezing for a few hours this afternoon. A trough approaching from the west will bring a surface cold front surging eastward late this afternoon and early evening.
652 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will sweep east across Pennsylvania Saturday.
Winds will relax through Saturday morning, but conditions will be significantly cooler. Through Tonight: Strong winds and precipitation chances Temperatures overnight have held pretty steady ranging from the mid 20s up the low 30s. Southerly winds will continue to advect in warmer conditions today with afternoon temperatures topping out in the 40s for much of the area. On the high end of the spectrum, the typically wet biased NAM guidance would suggest this light precipitation would start late morning lasting through the afternoon. The associated low pressure system lifts northeastward through the Lake Superior Region throughout the overnight hours. The 00z HREF guidance on the higher end (75th percentile) has gusts up to 45 mph. Additional short wave troughs and associated passing cold fronts would bring reinforcing shots of cold air along with precipitation chances.
These winds will then shift to the north behind the aforementioned cold front. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 70s with lows tonight ranging from the mid teens across west central Kansas to low 20s across south central Kansas.
Temperatures will be considerably warmer today, with afternoon highs mainly in the mid and upper 70s. For tonight, the aforementioned cold front will move across the area after midnight and is expected to clear the I-10 corridor around daybreak Saturday. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 40s elsewhere.
- Snow showers and flurries may produce a dusting of snow across northern Nebraska, especially near the Pine Ridge. However a strong cold front will enter Nebraska from the northwest early this morning, then push through central Nebraska before moving off to our east by early this afternoon. A light dusting of snow is possible mainly along and north of highway 20 with the Pine Ridge perhaps seeing accumulations of around half an inch or so. Northwest flow aloft and colder air mass will keep temperatures slightly cooler for the weekend with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
By early evening, winds will be much less over the area and the snow over the higher terrain should signficnatly decrease.
543 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Warmer today with increased clouds and winds today into tomorrow.
422 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 Today through tonight: A warm advection pattern has developed quickly and this will support increasing clouds and chances for showers, especially later tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will be considerably milder with southerly wind picking up as a warm front pushes through. /EC/ Saturday: Scattered showers will continue ahead of a weak cold front pushing southward across the region through the day.