Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The POPs this evening were adjusted to reflect the current situation and then the lower confidence and the more isolated nature of convection Monday. A small cumulus field has begun developing in Daniels County into southern Saskatchewan as the cold front slowly pushes to the east, so it seems that, as of right now, things are on track still for showers and thunderstorms along the North Dakota border tonight. By the weekend, another trough and associated boundary passage will lend to a return to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds: WNW at 10-20 kts as the cold front passes through the region.
1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A trough is set up over the eastern third of the CONUS with multiple associated waves. There is a ridge positioned over the central portion of the CONUS with a subtle wave along the Front Range and trough over western Canada/Pacific Northwest. Drier and cooler air following the cold frontal passage of yesterday made a definite difference in how it felt outside. Afternoon temperatures across Kansas were generally around 90 degrees which is close to the seasonal normal values which are in the lower 90s.
Today through Tuesday night Longwave trof is in control of much of the northwest Conus as the center of the Low in Canada slowly moves eastward. The southern end of the system's cold front is currently moving through northern Nevada and will stall out in the central half of the state through Tuesday. The portion of the front in Nevada is dry and the lowered heights will cool temperatures closer to normal over the next couple of days, with highs in the mid 80's to the lower 90's. Winds speeds will be lowered on Tuesday as the Low further retreats northeastward and gradients relax some.
302 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Other than an isolated shower early this morning, mainly dry, and increasingly warm, weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. A CU layer is expected with the upper trough, and as convective temperatures are reached, though dry air and capping aloft should preclude shower development.
Tonight Through Tuesday Northwest flow continues over Arkansas through Monday, around a ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest. The upper ridge will move east Tuesday and be centered more over Texas. Dry conditions were across the area for the most part today behind a cold front. Highs Monday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, and in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday.
By the evening and into the overnight, a jet streak rounding the southern side of a broad longwave trough over Canada will provide broad lift over the slowly moving surface boundary. Scattered cumulus cloud cover is likely for much of the day with the cooler temperatures aloft.
348 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A trough of low pressure will remain over New England through Tuesday, allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue.
1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 (This evening through Monday) There is a chance for showers/thunderstorms overnight, especially over northwest and north-central Oklahoma as storms exit the high plains and move towards our area.
VFR conditions and fair WX will continue tonight as high pressure prevails across the CWA. /ISSUED 714 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/ A benign weather pattern is expected to continue across Southeast TX tonight as the mid to upper level ridge continues to dominate the local weather pattern. Low temperatures tonight should range in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coastal regions.
1105 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Mainly dry, and increasingly warm, weather is expected through mid week under high pressure.
1150 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Pockets of lower VFR cloud will continue to transit southeast Michigan overnight as slightly cooler air funnels in under prevailing northerly flow.
Today Through Tuesday Night A broad and strong area of high pressure over the southwest US will maintain northwest flow aloft over AR through the forecast period.
Quiet and seasonably warm conditions should then prevail across the area heading into the daytime hrs, as a large dome of high pressure begins to build ewd across the Midwest/OH Valley states. Dry and unseasonably hot wx conditions will be the main story for the mid TN Valley going into the middle of the week, as an upper ridge pattern builds ewd over much of the SE states. The large sfc dome of high pressure will also continue to translate east towards the mid/NE Atlantic Coasts, thereby allowing sfc winds to veer more to the SE/S. All of this will result in afternoon highs climbing into the lower 90s Tue and perhaps into the lower/mid 90s on Wed. Overnight lows tonight/Tue night look to fall mainly into the upper 60s/near 70F before trending more in the lower 70s Wed night.
Upper trof over western Canada will continue to pivot east toward central Canada during the next couple of days, with an attendant cold front making its way across the state today. Moderate/strong instability and moderate/strong deep layer shear suggests a few supercells are likely near the frontal boundary, with LL shear/LLJ suggesting the highest chances for said storms along and east of the SD/MN border area.
The ridge remains in place across southern NM near El Paso and extends over much of the area but the models increase thickness values today compared to yesterday. This will likely translate into warmer max temperatures across the region this afternoon resulting in a few areas flirting with excessive heat warning criteria in the southern South Plains and parts of the Rolling Plains. The subtropical ridge that has been centered over NM will slowly shift southeastward Tuesday. The movement of the ridge will also allow some monsoonal moisture to wrap around the high and move into the region.
West winds will increase over NW ND this aftn and some CU will form as colder air aloft moves in on the south side of the upper low moving thru Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Clear to partly cloudy tonight and cooler with some 40s in western ND.
Still expecting convection to develop along the boundary approaching from the west/northwest overnight when the low level jet develops. Will keep POPs a bit lower in the afternoon because of this, then increase them into the high chance category Monday night. Lows on Monday night will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east. For the start of the out period, some lingering convection may remain in the region early Tuesday with the passage of a cold front, especially along the I-29 corridor and parts of southern SD. Upper level pattern starts out mostly zonal mid-week, but transitions to northwest flow as an upper ridge moves eastward out of the Rockies.
128 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Mainly dry, and increasingly warm, weather is expected through mid week under high pressure.
Under mostly clear skies and light southwest winds near 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along most of the Florida Keys, but Big Pine Key dropped to 76 degrees earlier when winds went calm before currently rebounding into the lower 80s.
Interior areas are forecast to cool through midweek as onshore flow increases and high pressure weakens. Look for onshore flow to spread further inland today in response to weakening high pressure over the Desert Southwest and troughing over the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure overhead will result in another beautiful day with light winds and afternoon highs mainly in the low 80s. Low temperatures will be a little warmer tonight than previous nights as southerly winds and clouds increase heading into Tuesday morning.
High pressure aloft over the Pacific will allow for dry conditions to continue into at least mid-week with slightly warmer temperatures.
Dry and unseasonably hot wx conditions will be the main story for the mid TN Valley going into the middle of the week, as an upper ridge pattern builds ewd over much of the SE states. The large sfc dome of high pressure will also continue to translate east towards the mid/NE Atlantic Coasts, thereby allowing sfc winds to veer more to the SE/S. All of this will result in afternoon highs climbing into the lower 90s Tue and perhaps into the lower/mid 90s on Wed. Overnight lows tonight/Tue night look to fall mainly into the upper 60s/near 70F before trending more in the lower 70s Wed night.
The strong large scale ridge centered over New Mexico continues to create hot conditions for the region.
/issued 408 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): High pressure continues to dominate Deep South Texas with at least one more day of record to near record heat in portions of the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley.
Highs this afternoon reach the low to mid 90s as peak heat indices reach 100-105.
345 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The cold front is sliding southward across the state currently, as noted in IR imagery and Td increases after passage. With the trough passing by this afternoon, instability will be enough to spark some showers and thunderstorms across the northern zones and Natrona County during the afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will move through the state late this evening, helping the moisture farther south, while bringing even more mild air to the region.
08Z water vapor imagery continued to show an upper ridge over NM. A convective complex was moving south into OK around the periphery of this ridge. Meanwhile a upper trough was moving east across Alberta Canada. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern plains was gradually weakening and low pressure remained in the lee of the Rockies. A low pressure system and trailing front was noted across eastern MT and the northern plains. This may change tonight as models continue to suggest convection off the higher terrain could move across northern KS tonight. Highs today should be warmer as southerly winds return with some warmer air moving in. Readings are expected to be in the lower and middle 90s. Lows are forecast to be in the lower and middle 70s thanks to a southerly low level wind.
Interior areas are forecast to cool over through midweek as onshore flow increases and high pressure weakens. Look for onshore flow to spread further inland today in response to weakening high pressure over the Desert Southwest and troughing over the Pacific Northwest.
403 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A surface level high pressure hangs out in the area Monday bringing another warm day. The low level jet orients itself SW to NE from W TX to the KC metro.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): High pressure continues to dominate Deep South Texas with at least one more day of record to near record heat in portions of the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley.
VFR conditions with winds generally less than 10 knots to prevail area-wide through the TAF period under stable high pressure. Today Through Tuesday Night A broad and strong area of high pressure over the southwest US will maintain northwest flow aloft over AR through the forecast period.
1029 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A slow-moving upper level trough will swing over Pennsylvania early this week bringing fair and comfortably warm conditions. A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week. However, falling heights ahead of approaching upper trough axis will support the chance of an isolated shower late in the day, mainly over the northern tier counties. Expect fair weather tonight with patchy late night fog, as high pressure and associated low-pwat air mass build in from the Grt Lks. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the lowest minimum temperatures we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the low 50s in the coolest valleys of the north and to the low 60s across the southeast counties.
546 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Other than an isolated shower early this morning, mainly dry, and increasingly warm, weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. A CU layer is expected with the upper trough, and as convective temperatures are reached, though dry air and capping aloft should preclude shower development.
628 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A slow-moving upper level trough will swing over Pennsylvania early this week. A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week. However, falling heights ahead of approaching upper trough axis will support the chance of an isolated shower late in the day, mainly over the northern tier counties. Expect fair weather tonight with patchy late night fog, as high pressure and associated low-pwat air mass build in from the Grt Lks. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the lowest minimum temperatures we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the low 50s in the coolest valleys of the north and to the low 60s across the southeast counties.
Warm weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Dry air, from building high pressure to our west, will help mix the boundary layer throughout the day.
236 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure over the Southwest will weaken and shift east this week, easing the heat across the region. Cooler weather is on the way for the next few days as the strong high pressure ridge aloft weakens over the SW and is replaced by a weak trough along the West Coast. The trough is basically the result of two strong ridges, one over the EastPac, and the shifting SW ridge, which is relocating to the Southern Great Plains.
Local radars show some lingering showers over the deep Gulf waters north and east of P Tower and over the distant Florida Straits south and southwest of the Lower Keys beyond 20 nm. Across these areas winds will maintain strength due to a thermal trough that will develop this afternoon over the southern mainland. Ridge axis currently to our south will slowly lift northward through the next couple of days.
738 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A slow-moving upper level trough will swing over Pennsylvania early this week. A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week. However, falling heights ahead of approaching upper trough axis will support the chance of an isolated shower late in the day, mainly over the northern tier counties. Expect fair weather tonight with patchy late night fog, as high pressure and associated low-pwat air mass build in from the Grt Lks. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the lowest minimum temperatures we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the low 50s in the coolest valleys of the north and to the low 60s across the southeast counties.
Cooler across the area Tuesday with max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s over the plains where clouds should be prevalent.
Sun will be out in full force today and while it won't be as hot as it will be later this week, I think we still creep into the low 90s in a few spots.
541 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A surface level high pressure hangs out in the area Monday bringing another warm day. The low level jet orients itself SW to NE from W TX to the KC metro.
Despite highs again warming into the low and middle 90s, this drier air will bring at least some temporary relief from the high heat, in the form of slightly lower humidity levels, to portions of the forecast area today. This could also bring some temporary relief to the high heat stress levels across South Mississippi and East Central Louisiana.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions through mid-week, then returning to normal for the later half of the week.
Big subtropical ridge which has been the story over the weekend pushed temperatures to record highs at several stations yesterday. Today, this ridge will be nudged southeast and weakened just a hair as low pressure swings across Alberta and Saskatchewan. The southern tail of the trough associated with the Canadian low will also kick up south to southwest winds over much of the region this afternoon.
600 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The TAF sites managed to avoid most of the low VFR cloud overnight, but the northern sites are starting to see some low-coverage stratocumulus pockets work through. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the cooler air associated with this disturbance linger most of the day.
630 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure in control through much of the week. A SPS may be needed in the next few hours to highlight the low visibility impacts heading into the morning rush hour. Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s with 50s across the mountains. H5 s/w ridge axis is prog to be to the west of the CWA on Tuesday, and thus only a minor increase in afternoon high temps (from Monday) should occur.
620 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 An upper level trough will push east across NC today. Subtropical high pressure will then build across the region through late week. Otherwise, the mid/upper level trough will swing across the state today into this evening. A well defined pre-frontal or Piedmont trough at the surface and lingering outflow boundaries will provide the focus for renewed scattered thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. A strong thunderstorm may occur at any location, but the best chance of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms should be along the pre-frontal trough. NC will be on the back side of the departing mid/upper level trough. It appears that the high temperatures will be a degree to two hotter, reaching the 90-95 range. A strong mid/upper level ridge will continue to ooze eastward and settle over the area midweek into late week.
641 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A strong, summer pattern continues to dominate the region with a near continuous ridge that wants to remain centered over parts of Western Texas and Eastern New Mexico. As such, the near constant train of short wave troughs that seem counter the ridge to the south are struggling to pull in additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
322 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Upper trof building in from the northwest has pushed a cold front through the area, and its stalled out just east of the state line backing to the west across northern Wyoming. Further to the west an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms are being generated along the 700mb front where its interacting with jet energy flowing around the east side of the upper trof. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler today with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and a northerly breeze will make it feel very pleasant for mid July. Area will remain under the influence of the upper trof on Tuesday for very similar temperatures as today, but less cloud cover an only an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two over far SE MT/NE WY.
Light and variable winds are expected today with high pressure overhead. Breezy southerly winds will then develop for Tuesday and continue through Tuesday night ahead of a low pressure system.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 69 95 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 93 69 96 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 90 67 94 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 90 65 93 / 10 0 10 0 10.
With the lower coverage of showers and storms, high temps were raised about a degree but because of the additional dry air, heat index values were lowered slightly.
809 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Other than an isolated shower early this morning, mainly dry, and increasingly warm, weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. A CU layer is expected with the upper trough, and as convective temperatures are reached, though dry air and capping aloft should preclude shower development.
High pressure will guide drier weather conditions along with seasonably warm temperatures for the middle portion of the week. That said, ensemble guidance does suggest a return to a more active pattern toward the upcoming weekend as a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest and then subsequently translates eastward.
136 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure over the Southwest will weaken and shift east this week, easing the heat across the region.
113 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Synoptic Overview: Flow aloft will strengthen over the Central/Northern Rockies today as an upper level trough (presently situated in British Columbia) progresses eastward through Alberta into Saskatchewan. The aforementioned trough will amplify into a stalled /cut-off/ low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba Tonight and Tuesday -- maintaining broad cyclonic flow aloft over the Central- Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Today-Tonight: Strong insolation, differential heating, and strengthening /increasingly diffluent/ flow aloft are anticipated to aid in the development of diurnal convection along the Cheyenne Ridge, Palmer Divide, and much of the CO/WY Front Range early this afternoon (19-21Z).
Upper level trough axis currently moving through the eastern Midlands will move offshore late this afternoon while a weak frontal boundary also moves toward the coast. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with low tonight in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday and Tuesday night: A weak trough remains across the region.
The cold front from yesterday will result in cooler temperatures across the area today, with warming values returning on Tuesday.
1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The ridge persists over the Southern Rockies this morning with northwest flow aloft across the MS/OH Valleys. Temperatures today will top out in the lower 90s across most of the CWA with light winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
PWAT's are down considerably after the passage of the upper trof axis last night. Low level drier air has managed to make it into the far northern counties where surface winds gave become northerly, but surface dewpoints are still in the lower to middle 70s across much of the area.
Heat Messaging: - Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning - Limit strenuous outdoor activities - Check on elderly and those without air conditioning - Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles The high pressure ridge responsible for the heat and dry weather conditions across South Central Texas for the past several days, is forecast to flatten slightly on Tuesday. The good news after Tuesday is that the high pressure ridge weakens a bit and will allow temperatures to "cool" several degrees across our area.
given the strength of the upper ridge to our west. Mid/upper level ridging centered off to our west will be working its way to our north as the week progresses and will allow for a gradual decrease in area high temperatures through the period.
High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices continuing across South Florida. High pressure aloft will begin to spread across southern portions of the United States, eventually merging with the western Atlantic Subtropical Ridge (aka Bermuda High). The strong well defined ridge to our north will help with a strong easterly flow from the Caribbean through the Gulf of Mexico.
Although we have kept some slight chance POPs across far southwest Missouri this afternoon, dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere as denoted by observations of roughly 15-20 degree dewpoint depressions and the 12Z SGF sounding should result in the vast majority of these radar returns remaining as virga.
835 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure over the Southwest will weaken and shift east this week, easing the heat across the region. Will it bring cooler weather? Oh yes, at least west of the mountains. The strong upper ridge over the Southwest will continue to relent into Tuesday, allowing SoCal temperatures to get back to normal.
103 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A moderately amplified pattern is seen on satellite imagery this afternoon across the Nation with a ridge axis is centered across our section of the Plains States, sandwiched between a trough to our east and another trough to our west. And, it is the trough to our west which will be the one driving our weather over the next couple of days; as the temperature spikes ahead of a cold front that may bring some storms to the region. This afternoon, we are watching a cold front developing across the Front Range of the northern Rockies, in response to the trough moving east along the northwest U.