Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the area today. High pressure is expected for the mid to late parts of the week. Lowered temperatures slightly most areas this afternoon as colder air behind the cold front spreads in.
Across northwest Montana, a light drizzle continues to fall out of the low clouds. Although temperatures are above freezing for most areas, some slick roads will remain. Forecast models are indicating the potential for a period of light freezing drizzle across southwest Montana valleys late tonight into early Monday, but this should be pretty light and patchy in nature. Light easterly winds will likely linger into Monday, though some clearing skies should be evident as drier and cooler air move into the region.
Later today there remains a chance for light freezing rain, sleet, or snow to change to snow this evening in southeastern Oklahoma as the wave exits that region. The cold front that will pass coincidentally will bring in much colder air today. Maximum temperatures in north central OK will be aroudn 20 degrees while southwest Oklahoma will be just below freezing.
559 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Snow lingers near Lake Superior and especially along the south shore through tonight, then an area of high pressure builds in leading to mainly sunny skies on Tuesday.
High pressure will then move into the region allowing for several days of dry weather with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move through the area this evening into tonight. High amplitude positively tilted trough will swing across the region early in the period. Thereafter, upper flow will become flatter with ridging developing over the weekend.
545 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Areas of fog with patchy light freezing drizzle and flurries will diminish this morning, as a Canadian cold front weakens over the region. High pressure aloft will then keep skies mostly clear beginning this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday.
A clipper type low pressure system will move into the area late tonight and bring some light snow into Tuesday. Weak high pressure overhead this morning as a southwest warm advection flow develops later today into Tuesday ahead of a clipper dropping into the lakes. Prolonged overrunning pattern develops as the positively tilted upper trof is slow to move through. Temps surface and aloft are cold enough for snow, but surface temps will continue to creep up and may approach the freezing mark in some place on Tuesday. Light winds under high pressure today will generally become southerly tonight into Tuesday but with a weak pressure field, will be less than 10 mph.
513 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Another band of snow is quickly shifting south across Kansas and Missouri early this morning as a surge of cold air sweeps into the Lower Missouri River Valley. The trough in place across the center of the Nation, responsible for our cold weather, will remain in place for a couple of days, allowing a good blast of arctic air to waft across the Plains States.
700 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Aviation A slow moving low pressure system will bring occasional snow through Tuesday. Widespread, generally light, snow expected to persist today as upper low currently over MN continues dropping to the south- southeast.
923 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Low pressure will bring light snow to the region later today and into Tuesday. Low pressure moving into the southern Great Lakes will spread light snow through eastern Ohio and extreme western Pennsylvania through early afternoon. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our Ohio counties by this evening, eventually bringing snow areawide. The outlier to this point is the 12z NAM which really slows the cold front down, maintains the layer of dry air near the surface, ultimately delaying snow onset and cutting into totals drastically. Cold front slows over the south-southeast on Tuesday, so the focus for additional snowfall will shift to where the front gets hung up.
639 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 A clipper will round the Lower Great Lakes today before weakening as it pulls away Tuesday. High pressure from south- central Canada will make its way to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys for mid week. Weakening low is slow to exit and toward the end of Tuesday afternoon wrap around moisture/trough will be nearing northwest OH. As far as temperatures go, enough warm advection will bring temperatures up into the lower/mid 20s today. A trough will swing across Lake Erie on Tuesday night with increasing low level moisture. Would expect some snow showers to accompany the trough but Lake Erie is mostly iced over except for the far eastern end so moisture flux will be greatly limited.
most low level SE flow and back door cold front currently sagging into northern TX.
A cold front will continue to slowly sag southward, with prevailing winds shifting to the E/NE in its wake. Hot temperatures areawide, and ample low level moisture, have increased SBCape to at least 1500 J/Kg across the Permian Basin, but only 500-1000 J/Kg over the higher terrain due to a bit drier air there. A cold front is located over the Texas Panhandle and easing southward.
High pressure remains over the southwestern US/Mex border, with areas of low pressure spinning over northern CA and just northeast of ME. At the surface, the overall pattern remains on the weak side, with models showing high pressure sliding from the western Dakotas southeastward to the IA/MN border by evening. Confidence in the TAF period over the next 6-9 hours isn't the highest.
An upper level trough will move through the Ohio Valley today, with several perturbations in the upper level flow noted across north and central Georgia. The cold front will push eastward into portions of north Georgia between 00-06Z tonight - with ECMWF/ SREF faster than GFS/NAM - and into southern portions of forecast area Tuesday.
246 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 The cold front will hold up INVOF of the e slopes of the mtns today and 85h temps show a well marked distinction from the warm w side vs cool/moist e side. Tue PM showers/storms will be most favored across the far SW-SE CWFA where the lingering instability focus is noted, along with the higher terrain.
237 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017 A weak low pressure system near the California coast will maintain drier southwest flow aloft. a weak low pressure system will remain near the California coast with high pressure to the southeast. SCT cumulus clouds with bases near 8000 ft MSL over the mountain ridges again Monday afternoon.
For the rest of today and tonight: high pressure settles in over the state resulting in highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dry conditions.
126 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Periods of rain can be expected across the region overnight and through the day with crossing low pressure.
305 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western ND. A brief period of drier weather can be expected early this week, today through Tuesday morning, as high pressure slowly slides southeast through the region. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80, with some 60s across the higher Black Hills. Tuesday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the plains, low to mid 70s across much of the Black Hills.
A few showers linger across far northeast California early this morning in the vicinity of the upper low. Elsewhere across interior NorCal, skies are clear and temperatures are slightly cooler compared to 24 hours ago.
314 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are possible over the higher elevations of the Sierra today through Tuesday. The low center over NRN CA will move inland by the middle of the week and quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail through the weekend with dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The forecast looks to be right around those values, so we can only hope that cooler weather will get here soon.
419 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure system moves into the region from southwest bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into the night. The northern portion associated with the upper level trough, will not be as well organized but will have more of an impact over the CWA, mainly across the northern Adirondacks and northern Vermont. Should see lows generally in the low-mid 50s, with patchy fog possible in the favored river valleys east of the Green Mtns and also within the Adirondack region.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the period, despite being south of the warm front today.
Temperatures are on track and should bottom out in the lower to mid 70s. A warm frontal boundary will push further north of the forecast area today while a cold front approaches from the MS/TN valley region. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility through the short term period as the cold front moves in the area tonight, and stalls out somewhere across the south-central Midlands and CSRA. Severe threat should diminish some this evening, but still expect the potential for heavy rainfall due to the high pw values.
Thereafter secondary sfc ridging expected to build south out of Canada across the lakes. More widespread shower activity will remain well south of KFWA overnight with only focus on cold front dropping southeast over the next 12 to 18 hours.
Kept previous forecast lows, which are on the low side of guidance, especially over the southwest near the center of the high Monday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will build across western and central North Dakota tonight into Monday. Did trend on the cooler edge of forecast guidance through the 12 UTC global suites and 17 UTC hi- resolution suites with good radiational cooling with the high. However, dewpoints perhaps remaining in the mid 40s to lower 50s is a limiting factor to widespread lows in the lower 40s or colder even with the cool start to the evening.
This is likely the reason the high-res models have struggled as well. Will show the highest PoPs in the 12z-18z time frame and slightly lower PoPs for the remainder of the day.
Scattered storms developed this afternoon in the favorable NE quadrant of the upper low where large scale ascent/upper level difluence is maximized. Now the upper low dynamics are shifting Nwd and the precip is winding down in our CWA. There may be some wrap- around/backwash clouds and isolated showers over the Nrn zones past midnight as the upper low lingers over the region. Afternoon instability should be maximized around the horn of the Coastal/Nrn Mtns/Sierra again on Mon as the upper low lingers resulting in more isolated to scattered storms in our CWA. JHM Upper low centered over Interior NorCal this afternoon is triggering some storms over the Coastal range and mountains of Eastern Shasta/Western Plumas counties. Temperatures continue to run about to 2 to 7 degrees cooler most areas this afternoon under the influence of synoptic cooling.
Mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower to middle 70s should be the rule today as high pressure builds across the region. Despite mostly clear skies and light winds tonight fog is not expected to be much of an impact as it has for the last few nights given some warmer air advecting in from the west.
356 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail today.
Another round of showers and thundershowers have kicked off this afternoon mainly north and south of the Highway 12 corridor. The remainder of this forecast period will feature more quiet weather as high pressure gradually takes hold of the pattern. The region will be slightly warmer and drier on Tuesday as the upper trough lifts to the northeast and high pressure dominates at the sfc.
Showers and thunderstorms expected over the coming days which will also help bring slightly cooler temps. Expect cooler temps near normal for this time of year with highs generally in the 80s with lows generally in the 50s.
145 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Atlantic high pressure will persist through Monday.
Thereafter secondary sfc ridging expected to build south out of Canada across the lakes.
615 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Scattered rainshowers will spread northeast across the area today as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley. The low will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening as high pressure builds East over the forecast area.
Abundant deep layer moisture and a broad upper level trough have resulted in an environment that has supported the development or continuation of convection this morning.
233 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure slowly exits to our south and east this morning. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic region late today and pass southeast of Cape Cod Tuesday morning accompanied by a steadier and heavier period of rainfall. a weak ridge was centered over the Connecticut Valley of New England. the weak ridge retreats offshore this morning. Precipitation tapers from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning as the low and upper trough slide well offshore.
Its arrival will be coincident with a weak cold front currently across northern Illinois.
An upper level low will bring a continued threat of thunderstorms to mainly the interior mountains through mid week. The upper level low that has brought thunderstorms to the interior and an increase in coastal cloudiness will meander about over the area through at least mid week. The layer did deepen overnight and this morning due to slight cooling in the lower atmosphere (below about 850mb). Given the boundary layer RH's from the high resolution models and the BUFKIT X-sections, expect diurnal stratus and perhaps fog for the next several nights and mornings. The flow pattern does resemble a rex block with westerly flow under-cutting a closed ridge to our north. Thus, another cut-off low may end up forming again for yet more storms in the 6-10 day time frame.
Will continue to go along with the warmer side of guidance for highs and the cooler side guidance for lows as airmass is quite dry.
/Issued 410 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ Post cold front across the Panhandles today is overcast skies with an isolated chance of a shower or storm in the far western Panhandles as convection develops in the high terrain to the west in NM. Perturbations circulating the 594 dam high pressure system centered near the NM/AZ stateline as indicated by the 06/12Z global model data, will bring chances of showers and storms to the region everyday throughout the week.
Upper low moving into northern California has pushed a fair amount of mid and high level clouds across the region this afternoon and evening. The low lingers over northern California Monday. The region will be under a strong upper level ridge, with smoke/haze being the primary aviation concern for the next 24hrs. Upper level cloudiness associated with a closed low over N CA will persist through the day Monday before moving out of the area Monday evening.
At the surface, a trough is expected to lie across central GA and southeast Alabama in response to the ascent aloft. Seasonal PWATs and instability should result in a fairly typical coverage of storms, with a slightly higher than normal chance across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia due to the trough. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s.
357 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Showers will continue to pull east through today as a low pressure system pushes toward the east coast. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the region through mid week. While dry air descending through the mid levels, the lowest level of the region is now saturated with plenty of low clouds and a lingering chance for scattered and shallow light showers persisting into mid day in all but the far western forecast area as the upper trough begins to swing through, keeping plenty of clouds and persistent below normal temperatures only topping out in the mid 70s.
Additional energy will eject E from the upper trough over northern California and into northern Colorado on Monday afternoon. With the front further south on Monday, expect cooler temperatures and cloudy skies over the southern counties with chances for light to moderate showers through the day. Cyclonic northwest flow to persist thru much of the extended yielding cooler than average temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions. Cooler temperatures expected over the next few days and this will combine with higher RH values and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to preclude much in the way of a fire weather threat at least through Tuesday.
600 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure slowly exits to our south and east this morning. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic region late today and pass southeast of Cape Cod Tuesday morning accompanied by a steadier and heavier period of rainfall. a weak ridge was centered over the Connecticut Valley of New England. the weak ridge retreats offshore this morning. Precipitation tapers from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning as the low and upper trough slide well offshore.
Deep layer high pressure is expected to prevail across the region on Monday, yielding more seasonable conditions. Less cloud cover will yield warmer temperatures than the past few days, along with diurnally driven convection as the sea breeze circulation returns to normal. Tuesday, a broad trough will brush by the tri-state region to the north, flattening the ridge and increasing moisture advection into the region once again. Increased moisture (PWATS around 2") and forcing from the sea-breeze and upper trough will yield higher chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs will rebound to normal values for this time of year, reaching the lower 90s in most locales, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Ridging remains in place across parts of the Western Conus and Eastern Pacific with rather broad troughing over much of the Central and Eastern Conus. As the surface wave moves east and northeast across the area this morning, the current area of showers and embedded thunderstorms should move out of the area with a cold front should beginning to drop south into the region. The highest probability of this appears to be over southern locations ahead of the boundary.
An upper level trough over the region will result in temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages today. A slight warming trend is then expected by midweek as the ridge over the Desert Southwest builds. A weak upper level low and associated trough continues to push across northern California this morning and will help to maintain a moderately deep marine layer. With that said, drier air just above the marine layer has mixed down early this morning and helped to temporarily erode the low cloud cover along the coast.
458 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure will build into the region today. Low pressure will track across the southern Gulf of Maine Tuesday then exit across the maritimes Tuesday night.
00Z CRP sounding confirmed this value but the sounding still indicated the drier air in the lower levels from 925 mb to 600 mb.
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure ridge building over the northern High Plains. Have much of today dry, although some sprinkles will be possible out of some of the low clouds expected to persist through the morning. and ridging over the west coast of the country keeps weak northwesterly flow over the Plains and the Rockies.
353 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over most of the U.
1108 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with weak cyclonic flow across the northern Plains. At the surface, weak high pressure was located across the area, with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
A stronger disturbance continues across the High Plains from the Rockies Monday night through Tuesday night, generating showers and thunderstorms.
612 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure will build into the region today. Low pressure will track across the southern Gulf of Maine Tuesday then exit across the maritimes Tuesday night.
This occuring ahead of a slowly moving trough axis (and surface convergent boundary) which sparked showers and a few thunderstorms across the state. Models keeping the low a bit further south which is lessening the effects of the latter, but scattered showers are currently initiating across southern MI thus will hold with pops for this evening. After a lull in shower activity overnight, the strong mid level trough will swing through the region on Monday. Chances of thunder are low as the best support is shunted east overnight, but models are trying to develop a bit more instability ahead of this trough.
Do not expect this activity to enter the CWA given the high CIN values per MSAS. The NAM/ECMWF/GFS predict, and the GFS ensemble mean depicts, the development of a weak upper trough over the ERN CWA/MSA during the period.
Models show veering/strengthening of low-level flow and a surge of moisture back into the High Plains late Tuesday. This will increase coverage and intensity of convection over the higher terrain to our west which may move into northwest portions of our area as early as Tuesday night. Models agree on a weak mid-upper level wave crossing the southern Rockies Tuesday and emerging onto the High Plains, probably enhancing convective development some.
For Monday east to southeast flow south of the ridge axis will bring some deeper moisture westward and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Meanwhile in mid to upper levels there is an area of lift and moisture from Utah across Colorado into Kansas that will slide eastward today, then start to tilt southeastward tonight in response to upstream ridging. Models keep flat upper ridging over the CWA on Tuesday.
Along the east coast, temps may only fall into the low 80s, tying or exceeding various high minimum record values. Minimum temperatures will only dip into the low 80s, once again tying or potentially breaking high minimum temperatures records.
Temperatures are on track and should bottom out in the lower to mid 70s. A warm frontal boundary will push further north of the forecast area today while a cold front approaches from the MS/TN valley region. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s. A warm front currently draped through central NC will push further north of the area today while a cold front approaches from the west.
The Bermuda ridge has been squeezed and expanded west across the northern gulf into the coastal southeast louisiana parishes but rainfall chances will remain for these areas as well. The second is the trough just north of the area. Models should handle the path of Franklin fairly well as high pressure steers the storm on a steady westerly heading and even bends the storm back toward the west in the coming days.
Upper trough extending across the central part of the CONUS will continue to promote west-southwesterly flow aloft today. A warm front over northern NC will push further north of the forecast area while a cold front approaches from the MS/TN Valley region. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility through the short term period as the cold front moves in the area tonight, and stalls out somewhere across the south-central Midlands and CSRA. Severe threat should diminish some this evening, but still expect the potential for heavy rainfall due to the high pw values.
On the large scale, a deep layer mean anticyclone remained centered over the western North Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are holding in the mid 80s, except a little cooler in those locations recently wetted by rainfall.
As of 3:30 am, dewpoints are currently in the mid 60s on the Caprock and in the low 70s in the southern Rolling Plains. As storms continue to develop on the higher terrain to the west and north and move across our latitude, our best chance for convection will be from outflow associated with those storms.