Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The highest rain chances and the most widespread heavy rain is still expected to be across south central and southeastern Oklahoma, but given the very heavy rainfall that occurred over portions of central Oklahoma last night and early this morning, it won't take as much rain to create more flooding issues in these areas.
Instability will be limited today and forcing from the low level jet is being robbed to an extent by the convection south of the area.
Weak Pacific high pressure across the nrn Rockies will build south into the central Rockies today and tonight. The very dry air with dew points falling into the 30s across wrn Nebraska tonight will support lows in the lower 40s across the western Sandhills.
340 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Light showers/sprinkles/virga around the area will come to an end later this morning, as an upper trough to the west and a bit of vorticity around 700mb move through the region. With so much dry air in the lower levels, don't expect much (if any) measurable precip from these isolated sprinkles. Lows tonight remain near or slightly below average, in the lower to mid 50s across the region.
232 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes this morning. , with this round courtesy of being triggered by the leading edge of an upper trough axis swinging overhead. To the NW, that precip is more directly associated with the trough axis itself as an upper jet moves in. This jet/trough looks to weaken as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes, with not a whole lot of atmospheric moisture accompanying it, thereby reducing more widespread precip chances with this system. All of the models are in agreement in intensification of the low, but differ on its track (i.
High pressure starts to build in on Tuesday, and keeps weather mostly quiet through the week. Winds have shifted to a northerly component behind a surface cold front. Winds remain on the breezy side through the evening as cooler air pools in from the north. High pressure starts to build in on Tuesday, and keeps weather mostly quiet through the week.
This in combination with 2000J/kg of MUCAPE and the nose of the low-level jet streaming in a layer of deeper moisture along and just south of I-40 is resulting in intense rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour with locally extreme rates of over 3 inches per hour as indicated from a couple of PWS sites within the heaviest bands of convection.
415 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 The persistent weather pattern over the continent, with low pressure centered over Hudson Bay, and high pressure centered over the Great Basin, will continue to direct upper level winds from the northwest along a very tight pressure gradient directly over our region. ***See the fire weather discussion below*** Dry conditions and warm temperatures will persist in this weather pattern for northeast Montana until the next cold front, set to arrive Wednesday evening. At this time, the associated precipitation with the cold front seems light or minimal at best.
An upper level trough continues to dig into the four corners region this morning as it dives toward southeastern NM tonight. Models finding more agreement this morning on how the upper level low to our east will play out and affect the CWA. Wednesday the upper level low will swing through the CWA resulting in lingering rain showers over the area for much of the day and cooler temperatures area wide thanks to cloud coverage.
Much cooler, early fall-like temperatures are expected today behind a cold front, followed by a warming trend beginning Wednesday as high pressure aloft returns to the Great Basin.
On Wednesday the Atlantic ridge builds more westward and some air mass drying takes place. There will be a warming trend for max temperatures today and Wednesday as the ridge builds. Looking towards the latter part of the weekend, a high pressure system will briefly begin building into the area from the north.
Cold weather enthusiasts got a taste of Fall this morning as lows dipped to near freezing in spots. But you can put away your sweatshirts because high pressure will build over the Great Basin this week. High pressure will transition from the eastern Pacific, cross through California, then re-center over the Silver State by Wednesday. Overnight lows will be a little cool Wednesday morning but temperatures should not approach freezing.
418 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Midlevel trough continues to speed to the southeast away from the state, taking most cloud cover with it. H5 ridge builds in behind the departing trough, bringing a wonderful day to the state. NW flow aloft will push the persistent smoke well to the southeast, leaving a nearly crystal clear day, with highs in the 70s for lower elevations, and lower 60s across the higher elevations. Red Flag Warnings are in effect Wednesday for central WY, where the highest winds and lowest humidity levels will correlate best.
Currently, high pressure is still controlling surface conditions, even though it has shifted a bit south and east in the region. Mid and high clouds continue to work over the region (not seeing any cigs reported below appx 11000ft agl), and temperatures generally range from the mid 50s to the low 60s.
At the upper levels, a 500mb trough was located over the Intermountain West. At the surface, a cold front pushing through the Panhandle should continue southward and approach the Big Country by late this afternoon and stall out/weaken overnight.
Kuroski (Issued 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020) Pre-dawn hours: Light winds haven't been quite strong enough to usher in drier air behind the cold front and with wet ground out there from the rain today and clear skies, patchy fog has developed. Today and Tonight: A low pressure system will slide along a stationary front parked to our southeast during the day today. This low will bring enough moisture with it to provide us with another round of shower activity. Rain will gradually end over southern Wisconsin during the evening hours, although low clouds will linger into the early hours of Wednesday as model soundings show the low-level saturating fairly well late Tuesday.
Broad southwest flow aloft continues over the central Plains with a deepening trough axis across the Great Basin.
629 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Light showers/sprinkles/virga around the area will come to an end later this morning, as an upper trough to the west and a bit of vorticity around 700mb move through the region. With so much dry air in the lower levels, don't expect much (if any) measurable precip from these isolated sprinkles. Lows tonight remain near or slightly below average, in the lower to mid 50s across the region. For Wednesday, a ridge to the west with southerly flow and 850mb WAA allow temperatures to warm back above normal.
More significant warming is likely region-wide for the Labor Day Weekend as high pressure strengthens over the West Coast. Meanwhile, slight warming will be possible across the interior as high pressure off of the Pacific Northwest coast builds to the southeast. As high pressure builds aloft through late week, the marine layer will gradually become compressed resulting in a gradual warming trend across the interior and less extensive night/morning low clouds in the coastal valleys. The aforementioned upper level high pressure will become centered over the region by this upcoming weekend with 850 MB temperatures warming into the 25-30 deg C range.
1014 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A wedge of high pressure will remain in place across the area through today keeping temperatures on the cool side. A south southwest flow will develop during the middle of the week resulting in warmer temperatures along with a risk of thunderstorms.
High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will continue to produce hot temperatures with limited cloud cover today. Adding to the heat misery will be strong winds, with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure inland.
A deep layer ridge to the south will start to build in today and tonight with the westerly steering flow weakening.
631 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Forcing appear weak as upper level ridge extending across FL into the Gulf of Mexico begins to build north into the area, limiting convective coverage.
97 The persistent weather pattern over the continent, with low pressure centered over Hudson Bay, and high pressure centered over the Great Basin, will continue to direct upper level winds from the northwest along a very tight pressure gradient directly over our region. ***See the fire weather discussion below*** Dry conditions and warm temperatures will persist in this weather pattern for northeast Montana until the next cold front, set to arrive Wednesday evening. At this time, the associated precipitation with the cold front seems light or minimal at best.
Another wave of showers and storms associated with a cyclone currently spinning up over northern OK is expected to move into SE KS over the next few hours. The weather looks to calm down for the remainder of the week as another high pressure system from the northern Rockies advances into the area. Unlike the previous system, this one traverses far enough south to block the flow of leeward cyclones keeping them in southern MO and AR.
Temperatures aloft remain rather warm around -4C to -5C at 500 mb, and models are showing the mid-level ridge starting to re- establish itself as the day goes on. Hot conditions develop this afternoon as temperatures reach the low 90s across the region. By early afternoon the axis of the Atlantic high pressure ridge pushes north into the waters turning winds south- southeast.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for most areas today, but this will be short lived, as dangerous heat returns to the deserts for Labor Day weekend.
In addition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across West Central Texas late this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches the area. At the upper levels, a 500mb trough was located over the Intermountain West. At the surface, a cold front pushing through the Panhandle should continue southward and approach the Big Country by late this afternoon and stall out/weaken overnight.
The influx of marine air into the region allowed temperatures to remain in the 90s across the lower elevations of Central California.
1034 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Currently - A lower level ridge straddling South Florida is fairly weak at our longitude and is producing light east to southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. There is some drier air in the lower levels. With the disruption in the ridge, lower level steering flow may back later in the afternoon. Expect day time highs to be in the lower 90s with dew point temperatures remaining in the upper 80s. A ridge across South Florida will maintain light east to southeast breezes on Keys waters.
Mid and high clouds are evident on satellite across much of the area this morning, as mid/high level moisture stream northeast ahead of a positively tilted upper trough extending from northern Minnesota southwest into the central Rockies. We'll get into better return flow late Wednesday as a stronger feature moves out into the High Plains, so look for increasing winds Wednesday afternoon (especially west).
/12Z TAFS issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio/ Main story continues to be the strong south winds and today looks to show the highest wind speeds of the week. Less wind is expected tonight, and will follow along with MOS guidance that the low cigs do not return at the end of the TAF periods Wednesday morning. High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will continue to produce hot temperatures with limited cloud cover today. Adding to the heat misery will be strong winds, with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure inland.
For tonight, the clear skies, light winds, and drying airmass will probably allow temperatures to drop a bit below the guidance, again similar to this morning in most places but a bit colder (around freezing) in the colder mountain spots which had cloud cover this morning.
Otherwise, Wednesday daytime looks dry, with upper-level ridge axis nearby.
Upper level lift associated with a departing northern stream wave was slowly decreasing over the forecast area, and with it the low clouds from west to east.
Winds may stay mixy enough to hold temperatures warmer than expected. The resultant warm air advection aloft will push warmer low-lvl temperatures back eastward.
Low and mid-level ridging increases across the SE CONUS on Wednesday with the axis shifting westward across the central Gulf Coast. This will shift the low-level flow to a more westerly direction and begin to cutoff access to the better GoM moisture. With low-level subsidence and drier air across SE TN, expect drier weather across the southern valley Wednesday afternoon with highest PoPs across northern portions of the forecast area in closer proximity to the approaching surface cold front and better upper divergence near the upper jet.
1127 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Midlevel trough continues to speed to the southeast away from the state, taking most cloud cover with it. H5 ridge builds in behind the departing trough, bringing a wonderful day to the state. NW flow aloft will push the persistent smoke well to the southeast, leaving a nearly crystal clear day, with highs in the 70s for lower elevations, and lower 60s across the higher elevations. Red Flag Warnings are in effect Wednesday for central WY, where the highest winds and lowest humidity levels will correlate best.
As the upper level low shifts south, will see 700mb flow veer and return upslope flow to the southern mountains. Burn scar flash flooding risk also remains on the lower side, though given the setup, think the Spring burn scar still has some risk and will continue to closely monitor. Cool night expected tonight with temps expected to fall to the low to mid 50s over the plains, and 30s to 40s over the mountain valleys.
Marginal instability (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg) should limit convective/intense precipitation, but rainfall rates will be efficient given the high PWATS (~1. Some of the higher rainfall rates Wednesday morning could be west of HWY 65 and along/south of I-44 where some elevated convection is more likely.
256 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 (Issued 300 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020) Tonight and Wednesday: Now through tonight expect the low levels to dominate the weather with rain showers and weak storms expected, especially this evening. The main forcing for this system will come on the backside of the low pressure system with perhaps indications of a TROWAL as there is clearly WAA in the low to mid levels. Precipitation will likely organize as a SW to NE oriented band of scattered to widespread showers that will push east with the low.
142 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 High pressure will build across the region today and move east tonight.
Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s for much of the region.
Cooler, early fall-like temperatures are expected today, followed by a warming trend beginning Wednesday as high pressure aloft returns to the Great Basin. High pressure aloft centered along the west coast will maintain a downstream anti-cyclonic northwest flow across the Great Basin through Wednesday.
Pre-Fall temperatures will greet Wednesday morning but this condition is only temporary as high pressure builds over the Great Basin this week. High pressure over the eastern Pacific continues to ridge southeast across northern CA into the Great Basin. With normal moisture sources pushed aside, model guidance shows little deviation with the upper high shifting its influence over the central Great Basin region through the week as it becomes anchored over NV the next few days.
257 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 (Tonight and Wednesday) Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low digging into southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. The upper level trough axis will linger across the area on Wednesday leading to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon, with the highest rain chances across the eastern half of the CWA. 42 (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) By Wednesday evening, models depict the axis of the upper level trough that will move into the area tonight along our eastern border or just east of our area.
With that clearing we'll see decent radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s by sunrise.
Weak sfc trof has pushed into ern SD today. with warmer temps. with cooler. will result in RH values falling into the low teens across much of the area.
As a matter of fact, on Wednesday weak ridging and light winds beneath sunny skies will allow us to warm nicely, with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s across much of the forecast area. With surface dewpoints remaining around the lower 50s or so that will make for a very pleasant late summer day. By Wednesday night another, notably stronger trough will be approaching from the northwest, with modest southwest breezes and warm air advection keeping temperatures up overnight.
closer to the low level jet and also a surface outflow boundary over far Southeast Oklahoma. the compact impulse along with the low level jet are expected to continue to push off to the east and exit the CWA. The low level southerly flow.
1128 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Overall, forcing appears weak due to weak moisture transport and ridging aloft which will limit convective coverage.
High pressure ridging has been building in the area bringing northerly flow aloft behind an exiting cold front. Tomorrow a dry trough/front clips our northern area bringing breezy to moderate winds.
Marginal severe threat does exist where some pockets of heating has allowed for 1000 to locally 2000 J/KG CAPE, especially SE areas that seen a bit more sun and managed to climb into the lower 80s. Despite the first front being south of the area, temps will still remain seasonable to even a bit above normal in the lower 80s, but dewpoints will be down a good 10 degrees or more.
Will likely see a break in the rainfall for this evening, although expect additional activity to develop and move into southeast OK later tonight ahead of the slow moving positive tilt trof.
1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 High pressure system centered over us has helped to relieve us of convection for today.
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Widespread cloud cover and isolated showers continue across the area in association with a warm front that is draped across the region. High temperatures tomorrow will be warmer thanks to less cloud cover and the absence of rain cooled air, with highs in the mid 80s.
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening - Cold front brings showers and thunder this weekend - Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening A batch of showers and embedded thunder is currently entering far southwest Lower Michigan with a few updrafts popping up ahead of it in area of stronger surface heating under thin cirrostratus.
As the southern stream trough continues to drift east through the Southern Plains showers and storms may linger along the zone in southeast KS tomorrow where better moisture will reside.
A cold front will push through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The FA should remain in the warm sector ahead of the next low pressure system through most of the day. Right now it does appear there will be at least some west-southwest push, which would argue for temperatures on the higher end of guidance.
with a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS, and a deep/broad troffing action sweeping the eastern CONUS as we head into the weekend. While the ridge leads to record high temps out West, our Great Lakes/Canadian long wave trof will sweep a refreshingly cooler and less humid, Canadian sourced airmass across the PAH FA.
1111 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Forcing appear weak as upper level ridge extending across FL into the Gulf of Mexico begins to build north into the area, limiting convective coverage.
Persistence is the forecast for the next 24 hours, as gradient from high pressure in the Gulf to low pressure over the Great Plains remains in place. /12Z TAFS issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio/ Main story continues to be the strong south winds and today looks to show the highest wind speeds of the week. Less wind is expected tonight, and will follow along with MOS guidance that the low cigs do not return at the end of the TAF periods Wednesday morning. High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will continue to produce hot temperatures with limited cloud cover today. Adding to the heat misery will be strong winds, with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure inland.
This pattern has led to light winds, generally from the west-southwest at the lower levels, giving us another early seabreeze start with Gulf coast seabreeze storms slowly moving east-northeastward. Instability is low with a good cloud shield most of this morning and warmer temperatures aloft, so overall threat for severe weather is very low, but can't completely rule out an isolated wind gust to around 30-50 mph with our summertime convection.
317 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Overall, forcing appears weak due to weak moisture transport and ridging aloft which will limit convective coverage.
At upper levels, a strong ridge builds over the western U. 500mb flow shows a positively-tilted trough over the Rocky Mountains, an indicator of clear weather in the upper plains. At the surface, a trough with an axis extending from North Dakota through Nebraska will move east. Tomorrow is expected to be warmer than today as pressure continues to build over the state. Upper level ridge will continue to strengthen over the western U. Fire weather is a concern on Wednesday due to the low RH, gusty winds, and clear skies.
Clear skies with cool temperatures outside as the area recovers from the passage of the cold front from yesterday. Ridging begins to build which will increase temperatures through the week bringing us back above normal by Wednesday.
249 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A closed upper lows sits just to the east of the Four Corners region with an upper trough over the Desert Southwest. Wednesday, the low tracks to the south over Texas and Oklahoma, with models showing it becoming an open wave. Northwest flow aloft will set up over the Tri State region with a ridge over the West Coast. The ridge over the West Coast will expand eastward through the week, bringing dry conditions to the Central High Plains.
Meanwhile, high pressure will dominate across southern parts of the state with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue to move onshore, and become more widespread over the interior through this afternoon.
across our northern and western terminals in advance of a deepening trough shifting eastward across New Mexico.