Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
424 PM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Western CONUS ridge continues to amplify and push east as a vigorous NE PAC upper trough shifts east. This trough will split as the southern stream feature closes and then ejects into the plains Wed. Forecast models continue to trend the main sfc cyclone with this system further south, supporting a faster more prominent northern stream influence locally. Flow pattern will revert back to eastern CONUS trough/western ridge, with the FA on the cold side of the active baroclinic zone by the end of the week. WAA will continue as the ridge pushes east. Expect passing mid and high clouds with lows mainly in the 20s, warmer in favored BH downsloping areas. Strong cold front will shift across the area Wed, with snow expected.
Dense fog (freezing fog) is expected to Affect the northwest Arkansas TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning. Areas of fog and patchy freezing fog is also possible further south along and south of I-40. Dense freezing fog could cause elevated road surfaces to become slick Tuesday morning. Temperatures will feel quite pleasant through mid-week with slight ridging in place over the Plains.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to mid 20s, with high temperatures on Tuesday rising back into the lower to mid 30s.
Accumulating snow limited to the higher elevations.
This was factored into this update which gave me more freezing rain/sleet vs rain/snow. Current surface analysis places ridge over the northern plains with a low over British Columbia. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the Rockies nudging into the plains, with trough off the west coast. On Tuesday, quiet weather expected through the day as ridge pushes off to the east and west-coast trough moves well onshore through the day, and into the Rockies overnight. Trough continues its western progression as cold front dives through the area. Precipitation spreads over the area with snow mainly behind the front, and a freezing precipitation mix possible mainly along and ahead of the front (which would be in the morning).
The primary short term focus is on the fog/low clouds/drizzle potential tonight, as freezing temperatures are possible during the overnight and early Tuesday morning hours. There is good model agreement on some type of low cloud or fog, but it is more difficult to ascertain exactly which, putting a a bit of a hedge on that freezing fog/drizzle potential.
An upper level low along the northern Gulf coast will slide eastward overnight. At the surface, a warm front extends eastward along the coast and just offshore.
An upper low off the California coast will track slowly east across the desert southwest the next couple of days spreading moisture north into Utah.
639 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Aviation High pressure will build in tonight through Tuesday and bring fair and tranquil weather.
929 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Weak high pressure will build into the region tonight, but will move quickly east on Tuesday.
Cool and tranquil weather will persist over the short term in wake of the cold front. Clear skies and light winds overnight will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s tonight. Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to today to a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
There should be a band of lower level moisture nearer the trough axis that threatens a slight chance of showers late tonight, and then this moisture layer will linger into the morning before fading a bit in the afternoon. Winds will also increase over the higher mountains with some of this trickling into the foothills. West to southwest direction is not favorable for a Front Range wave, and the temperature profile is only good around the trough passage time late tonight. On Tuesday the airmass will be cooler, but more wind will also weaken the inversions and provide better mixing in most areas.
Also temperatures will lower to around freezing over parts of northern AR, and patchy freezing fog and icing in clouds will be seen.
Temperatures over northern AR may drop to around freezing Tuesday morning, and spotty freezing fog may be seen on elevated roads, overpasses and bridges. Also temperatures will lower to around freezing over parts of northern AR, and patchy freezing fog and icing in clouds will be seen.
410 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 As of 20Z Monday afternoon, mostly sunny skies were present across the area with temperatures near 50F! Mid-level ridging continues to build across the central Plains. An expansive low stratus and fog shield was noted on the southeastern periphery of the high across Ozarks into much of Arkansas. With temperatures progged to be near freezing at dawn Tuesday morning, any dense fog would have the ability to create a few slick spots, especially on elevated surfaces. High temperatures are progged to reach the low to middle 50s.
1031 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Currently - A low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has brought a moisture rich lower level environment. Winds have been trending sharply downwards over the past half day the ridge to our northeast retreats, placing the Keys in a weak gradient between the departing high and the Gulf low. Short Term Update - Winds will continue to decrease through the remainder of the overnight period as the ridge continues to lift out. The weakening lower level flow should subsequently weaken the lower level lift taking place, and shower coverage should diminish some. Winds may become light and variable over the cooler shallow gulf and bay side waters.
341 PM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Good deal of mid/high level cloudiness across the region today as upper level ridge shifts eastward through the Rockies.
633 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A light wintry mix is expected to exit the Lower Susq Valley this evening while a compact/rather weak upper level disturbance and a moist southwest flow at low levels maintains the threat of patchy light snow and freezing drizzle over the Laurel Highlands through the overnight hours.
711 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A low pressure system brings wintry precipitation into tonight. Much warmer midweek, but cooling back down for the weekend. Elected to drop the winter weather advisory across much of the lowlands and southern WV/southwest VA with this evening update. So canceled WSW, were either precipitation as ended or where warm mixing has occurred negating any further possibilities for freezing rain.
With high pressure building into the region, light winds and clear skies will prevail through the period. Cool and tranquil weather will persist over the short term in wake of the cold front. Clear skies and light winds overnight will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s tonight. Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to today to a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
1048 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday.
/issued 245 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge moving into the central CONUS, courtesy of a trough approaching the west coast. The Pac trough is still forecast to make landfall at central CA at around 18Z Tue, and quickly translate to the Panhandles by 00Z Thu. Tuesday, as SW flow aloft develops over the region ahead of the trough, leeside troughing on the Front Range will veer sfc flow to the SW.
Still expecting patchy freezing fog tonight and into Tuesday morning, with the potential for some denser fog to form along the Milk and Missouri River valleys. A chance for light mixed precipitation still exists for Tuesday morning as temperatures warm toward freezing, mainly north of Highway 2. Precip type is tricky as models are suggesting rain, but temperatures are below freezing as of 2 pm at Glendive, so some ice pellets or sleet is possible here.
658 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 An approaching low pressure system is spreading cloud cover and increasing instability across the area. /issued 342 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018/ The short term forecast still remains rather uncertain as a mid level trough moves southeastward from the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF continues to bring the area of low pressure across the southern tip of the peninsula.
As of 20Z Monday afternoon, mostly sunny skies were present across the area with temperatures near 50F! Mid-level ridging continues to build across the central Plains. An expansive low stratus and fog shield was noted on the southeastern periphery of the high across Ozarks into much of Arkansas. With temperatures progged to be near freezing at dawn Tuesday morning, any dense fog would have the ability to create a few slick spots, especially on elevated surfaces. High temperatures are progged to reach the low to middle 50s.
1042 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A compact and rather weak upper level disturbance and a moist southwest flow at low levels will combine to maintain the threat of freezing drizzle over the Laurel Highlands through the overnight hours, while generally dry conditions are expected elsewhere.
708 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Weak high pressure will build into the region tonight, but will move quickly east on Tuesday.
Other concern will be some locations dipping back down below freezing overnight and having some of the wet surfaces refreeze. Low clouds should help keep temperatures relatively steady, but with temps this close to freezing it's likely that some places will dip a few degrees below freezing. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 52 43 59 / 40 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 51 40 60 / 40 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 51 39 59 / 50 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 49 37 58 / 50 10 10 10.
704 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A weakening low pressure system will continue to slowly drift towards Florida during the overnight hours and into tomorrow. That combined with troughing moving into the area will bring plenty of cloud cover with isolated to scattered shower chances throughout the day. Weak ridging will give way to troughing across the coastal waters through Wed night/Thurs. Next cold front then moves through with stronger high pressure building into the area behind it.
739 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A light wintry mix is expected to exit the Lower Susq Valley this evening while a compact/rather weak upper level disturbance and a moist southwest flow at low levels maintains the threat of patchy light snow and freezing drizzle over the Laurel Highlands through the overnight hours.
540 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 The primary short-term concern is with potential fog transitioning to freezing fog beginning this evening into the overnight hours. The primary hazard associated with this setup is with the potential for slick roadways early Tuesday morning across the affected areas as surface temperatures return to below freezing tonight.
Freezing rain is possible in sheltered valleys in portions of southeast Oregon and in the lowest parts of the Lower Treasure Valley in Idaho. At this time, temps are just above freezing, but a 1 to 2 degree drop will change that. With thick cloud cover and warm rain falling into the airmass, it is unlikely that any widespread freezing rain will occur. Nonetheless, motorists should be on the lookout for pockets of freezing rain as the night wears on.
Cutoff mid-upper level low center will drop from SELA to offshore the SWFL coast by late tomorrow, placing ECFL in an increasingly favorable divergent upper level pattern, while deep layer moisture continues to increase in SE low level flow, as winds aloft back to SW and south.
An upper level wave is moving east across eastern MT and into western ND currently, while high pressure resides at the surface across the Red River Valley and northern MN. This wave may produce some light freezing rain or snow. The GFS and some of the hi-res models have been promoting this event, but still the confidence is rather low due to a dry layer in the low levels. Warm moist air pushes back northward tonight and tomorrow ahead of a developing low pressure system. On Tuesday, the warm air aloft will result in mild lows in the morning and highs in the low to mid 30s across much of the region.
555 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A light wintry mix is expected to impact the southern tier and Susquehanna Valley into early evening, with light snow elsewhere as a weak cold front passes through.
/issued 328 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Deep South Texas will be in between an upper low over the NC Gulf and a large storm system plowing into California and the Inter-mountain West. High pressure at the surface and aloft settles over our region the next 24 hours continuing the very pleasant weather. Temperatures rebound into the lower maybe the mid 70s with little to no increase in humidity but much less wind so it will feel warmer in the afternoon.
However, we also have a trough axis that will be swinging through the area and will help increase the chances of showers/storms as well as form a better concentration of where the best rain chances will be. While there is still some uncertainty between models of the exact placement of the scattered to numerous showers/storms, I feel as though the highest chances will be between I-59 and I-85. Synoptically, an upper ridge is spread across the Western US as a trough dips down through the Great Lakes and into the Central Appalachians.
At the surface, the sub tropical ridge axis oriented across the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula today will slowly dip south into southern Florida through Saturday, with light low level flow continuing.
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected later today in response to the upper trough entrenched across the eastern half of the CONUS. The trough axis will be oriented more directly across the region today which could result in slightly higher convective coverage than was seen yesterday. Very similar setup expected for Saturday as well although the trough axis shifts east into AL/GA which may result in slightly lower overall coverage.
1108 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front from the northwest will bring the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms today into tonight.
It will be another hot day, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the 100-108F range.
THIS WEEKEND: A increase in tropical moisture moving into the area combined with a mid level trough moving into the southeastern US will bring higher rain chances as well as coverage this weekend. High pressure will build back across South Florida with easterly flow continuing and a typical sea breeze driven summertime pattern for the start of next.
930 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 The subtropical ridge extends across central Florida this morning with a weak ridge aloft. This mornings sounding and water vapor imagery shows the increase in mid level moisture transported from the Caribbean area from an upper low just west of Florida. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge axis oriented across the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula today will slowly dip south into southern Florida through Saturday, with light low level flow continuing.
VFR will persist until a cold front moves from north to south first affecting CKV.
/issued 356 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Brownsville radar indicates a few coastal showers developing and moving northwest along the lower Texas coast this morning. Deep tropical moisture, in combination with an 500mb inverted trough, and light to moderate southeasterly winds will enhance convection along the seabreeze today and again Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 70s across the ranchlands to upper 70s near the coast under partly cloudy skies.
1207 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will cross through the region Saturday morning.
807 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
914 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Moring Cape Canaveral sounding shows flow has veered more toward southerly component as ridge axis has drifted back south across the central peninsula. Weakness in ridge aloft to the south and a little more moisture should keep the highest coverage of precip across the southern part of EC FL as the sea breeze drifts inland through the afternoon hours.
I currently have the highest POPs for Saturday focused across the Southern Coastal Plains where the moisture depth is prog to be the greatest.
1002 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 An area of low pressure will move to our northeast today. A cold front is expected to move across the area on Saturday.
Water vapor shows circulation vcnty MN arrowhead dropping southeast so some of the DCVA associated with this will arrive and aid in the development despite the low level cool advection underway. Once this settles down towards mid evening it looks quiet into Saturday with high pressure taking hold. High pressure settles in for Saturday so fairly light wind regime expected, though onshore component likely to develop during the afternoon due to diurnally driven lake breeze circulation.
/Issued 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ The upper level pattern will remain fairly persistent through the weekend, with a ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough draped across the Eastern CONUS. The southern portion of the upper trough lags back to the southwest across the Lower MS Valley and into Texas, and continues to drop very slowly south while weakening. Energy from this disturbance will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the Central Plains in the vicinity of a weak cold front.
Upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern with hot and mainly dry weather. The ridge axis will be over Western Montana today which will keep the warmest temperatures to the west of the forecast. The ridge slides east into Central and Eastern Montana tonight and Saturday which will bring the thermal ridge east into the forecast area.
High pressure settles in for Saturday so fairly light wind regime expected, though onshore component likely to develop during the afternoon due to diurnally driven lake breeze circulation.
1037 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Update A cold front will push through the region this morning resulting in thunderstorms. An area of high pressure then moves in for Saturday resulting in lower temperatures.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 88 67 / 40 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 86 65 / 30 20 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 87 71 86 65 / 20 20 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 82 61 / 20 40 40 10.
958 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Low pressure will track north of the area this morning. A cold front will cross through the region Saturday morning.
626 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A bit of a break from the Summer heat today, thanks to a weak cold front which moved through last night. Otherwise, today should feature slightly cooler temperatures with a considerably drier feel to the air by the afternoon thanks to falling dewpoints in the 50s. We should still see slight redevelopment of afternoon CU, especially over the Buffalo Ridge. Another sneaky area to monitor for a few showers would be the Buffalo Ridge areas of MN/IA after midnight. Mostly dry and very warm weather conditions continue as the large upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners slowly moves northeastward into the Central/High Plains. With the ridge in place, northwest flow aloft,temperatures will again be above normal through the period.
743 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front over Wisconsin will move southeast across the area this afternoon and evening.
Everybody will warm solidly into the 80s today with dew points remaining in the low 70s ahead of tonight's "frontal" passage. VFR will persist until a cold front moves from north to south first affecting CKV.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida this afternoon. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today.
Water vapor, mid and low moisture is detected along the boundary, with dry air aloft, through the mid into the low levels across central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Expectations are for scattered storms to develop along this boundary this evening on the high plains of Colorado/Kansas, with additional development late tonight along the boundary across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. This potential convection and associated cloud cover should keep temps a few degrees cooler than are seen today.
1006 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
Broad low pressure across the Great lakes will sweep a cool front across Indiana today.
1101 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Currently - A cold front is marching southeastwards through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned cold front will push through the Keys late in the overnight period. There will be cold air advection once the cold front passes and after morning temps in the mid 70s, expect temperatures to approach 70 by sunset. A cold front will sweep through Keys waters late tonight. A weak cloud line indiates an approaching cold front with just a few showers possible.
A SW flow of increasing moisture will begin to overspread the region beginning tonight as an upper low consolidates over the Gulf of Alaska.
Otherwise, high pressure well north of the area should keep dry conditions going across the area.
Latest surface obs indicate a mix of light snow and freezing drizzle entering the Devils Lake basin, so adjusted precipitation chances and types to account for this. This will continue overnight as expected, as drier, warmer air aloft moves in aloft. Challenge for the low impact weather for the short term will hinge mostly on cloud cover and light precipitation.
Tonights lows will run about 6 to 8 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the lower 40s for most inland areas generally along and north of the I- 10 corridor and the middle 40s further to south stretching to the immediate coast.
1013 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Latest surface obs indicate a mix of light snow and freezing drizzle entering the Devils Lake basin, so adjusted precipitation chances and types to account for this. This will continue overnight as expected, as drier, warmer air aloft moves in aloft. Challenge for the low impact weather for the short term will hinge mostly on cloud cover and light precipitation.
1029 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Strong upper trough along with a surface cold front will move through the area overnight.
918 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 An upper level low was evident in latest WV imagery over E KY and should slowly move east overnight. So, have adjusted PoPs to reflect this and only have a rain/snow mix in the higher terrain of NE AL and S Mid TN. Another thing that might help to keep temps above freezing tonight is some mid-level cloud cover that will cross the area tonight. Generally sunny skies, but colder than normal conditions are forecast for Wednesday, or the first full day of Spring, as cold high pressure builds in from the west. Somewhat colder conditions are expected Wed night as winds become light/variable under the high as it moves across the region. Night time lows for most if not all of the area should fall below freezing.
North to northwest winds 8-13 knots early this evening will become light and variable overnight as surface ridging builds into Southeast Texas, veering to the southeast mid to late morning Wednesday. High pressure will bring another clear day on Wednesday and conditions will remain dry with RH values falling below 30 percent. Onshore winds will return late Wednesday afternoon as the high shifts east and low level moisture will gradually increase Wednesday night.
Challenge for the low impact weather for the short term will hinge mostly on cloud cover and light precipitation.