Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
653 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 (This evening through Friday) Showers/thunderstorms are likely to develop across southwestern OK and western north TX this afternoon and evening a mid-level trough and surface boundary.
A flat trough to the north of the area will begin to sharpen and track southward across the midwest today. Subsidence ahead of this system as well as from ridge over the GOM should inhibit convection for all but late in the day. After around 21Z, activity along the frontal boundary associated with the approaching trough will begin nudging into northwestern portions of the CWA. From a temperature perspective, should be relatively near normal highs in the lower to mid 90s. On Saturday, the trough slows as it rotates closer to a neutral state over the mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area tonight as lows fall to near 60, to the lower 60s. High pressure building across the Mississippi River Valley from the northern Plains will provide dry and quiet conditions across the area to close out the work week. Afternoon highs should climb into the low 80s as we mix down temperatures around 10 to 15 C from 850 hPa. high confidence Mainly dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure slowly builds into the area.
High clouds will continue to stream across southern WI today through Saturday as low pressure over the Midwest slowly tracks ENE. High pressure settling over the Upper Great Lakes will keep winds light.
1121 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 A mid to upper level low paired with a couple of surface boundaries all within the presence of ample moisture has yielded another active weather day with showers producing moderate to heavy rain across portions of the region. North northwesterly flow on the back side of the mid to upper level trough will continue through the weekend.
A cold front will drop south through North Dakota today. The cold front will move into north central Nebraska late tonight. On Saturday, the cold front will move through the remainder of western Nebraska in the morning. Highs slightly cooler from upper 70s near 80 north central to near 85 far southwest.
Expect these showers and storms to focus over southeast KS through the morning before exiting by late morning as the trough continues to push southeast. Otherwise expect temperatures to climb into the low 80s across the area today. Cool mid level temps and the passing of subtle PV waves of ahead of a cold front may support some popcorn style convection tomorrow afternoon and early evening.
At 08Z showers were still moving into east central Kansas within the deformation zone, while the more heavy rainfall was confined to Missouri within the northeast quadrant of the low. Highs today top out in the lower 80s with most areas remaining mostly cloudy. Dry weather is expected tonight with decreasing clouds allowing temps to cool into the lower 60s.
A closed low was over far eastern KS, a ridge was centered over the AZ/NV/UT border area and then that extended up into southwest Canada. Surface analysis at 3 am showed low pressure in southern MO and high pressure in eastern CO. At least some of the model output brings isolated to scattered precipitation into portions of northeast NE later tonight, ahead of a cold front that will push through the area on Saturday. Look for lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.
This evening through Friday night As an upper level ridge builds northward across the Intermountain West, the forecast area will be in northwest flow aloft this afternoon into tonight.
247 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Satellite imagery shows a high amplitude ridge to our west, extending from the SW CONUS to northern Rockies. Otherwise, increased easterly winds (10-20 mph) under above normal heights should result in capping for the lower elevations. High temps today should reach the low-mid 90s most places. Saturday will be less mixed and a bit cooler with temps very close to Aug 1st normals.
An upper level trough drifts from the Great Plains today to the Mississippi Valley on Saturday while extending into southern Texas. A cold front north of I-20 will drop south aided by convective outflows and a northerly flow aloft. For now, expect upward forcing by the front and upper trough on a moist airmass (PWs around 2 inches) to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern areas today and most areas tonight into Saturday with heating adding to the forcing during the daytime hours.
1040 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 (This evening through Friday) Showers/thunderstorms are likely to develop across southwestern OK and western north TX this afternoon and evening a mid-level trough and surface boundary.
Tonight, the upper level trough will remain in close proximity and as such anticipate a mix of clouds and stars, with pleasant conditions. While areas that keep clouds for any length and urban sites anticipated to mostly stay in the lower 60s.
1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Upper level analysis has closed low across the central CONUS with ridging across the Great Basin. At the surface, weak high pressure is in place across the forecast area with a weak low near the Canadian border. Closed upper low to the southeast of the area will continue to slowly sink south and east as Great Basin ridge continues to build. Weak energy sliding south along the downstream edge of the ridge will produce some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening, with severe weather not anticipated. Canadian high pressure will settle across the area for the weekend with cooler temperatures expected along with only isolated showers and storms on Saturday.
The cold front to our north will return rapidly northward as a warm front, with nocturnal showers and storms focused over the northwestern portion of the forecast area. That said, atmospheric destabilization preceding the cold front is still a bit uncertain, as timing differences exist in the model guidance at this time range.
As a Low pressure system slides along the boundary in southern Illinois, rain showers are forecast for the next couple days, south of the I-72 corridor.
Better chances develop Fri afternoon along a north to south moving cold front. Thunderstorms continue to grow in coverage and intensity along the Highway 85 corridor from near Watford City to the South Dakota border. Features in the short term include a trough of low pressure and associated cold front across northeast Montana into Saskatchewan. A warm front extended from this low through central North Dakota. For tonight, the cold front will slowly move into northwest North Dakota this evening, then into central ND on Friday. Then the weekend will be pleasantly cool and dry across the region in the wake of the cold front.
At the surface, region will be between high pressure across central FL, and a trough of low pressure which extends across the southeastern US into SE GA this afternoon. Aloft, an elongated ridge of high pressure at 500mb will extend across FL. Subsidence under the ridging will limit convective potential Friday afternoon to isolated to scattered coverage, with this activity decreasing Friday evening. High pressure ridging will be across area through much of Saturday, then move north in the afternoon, as tropical system is expected to approach from the south. The ridging should keep coverage isolated to scattered, with this coverage increasing later in the day as moisture advances ahead of tropical system.
412 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A somewhat cooler northeast flow will continue over the area today with showers and storms staying south closer to the Ohio River. Rain chances will be increasing this weekend as a low pressure area approaches.
322 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Like a broken record, high pressure will continue to dominate the region on Friday. Friday night, lows will be in the low-60s and a cold front will approach from the northwest in advance of a positively tilted upper-level trough centered over the Hudson Bay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the MN portion of the CWA as the cold front pushes through Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s across the western CWA with in the eastern portion in the low 80s. By Saturday night, the cold front will be draped from northeast to southwest across western WI into southeastern MN.
That said, the close proximity of the tropical cyclone will at least increase our PoPs marginally (though still quite moisture starved on the dry, sheared southwestern quadrant of the storm).
Thunderstorm activity in southwest Manitoba is slowly working southeastward ahead of a cold front that will push through the region later today. Ahead of the front, temperatures will climb well into the 80s this afternoon, with cooler air working into our northeastern counties by mid-afternoon. The 500mb pattern starts out with a ridge over the Rockies and fairly sharp northerly flow over the FA.
246 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure over the desert southwest has a ridge spur that runs north through Idaho and into British Columbia. Modified cool air is dropping south through the Canadian Plains in a trough oriented from Nunavut south through Saskatchewan. Northeast Montana lies between these two airmasses in northwest flow with the warmer almost monsoon-like airmass currently carrying the most influence.
1025 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 The primary forecast concerns in the short term is how long the light showers will linger across the area in the upslope flow in the wake of the cold front that pushed south across the central high plains over the last 24 hours. Temperatures remain cool today with mostly cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and a cooler airmass with northeasterly upslope surface winds. The area of light showers ends up pushing to the southwest as it diminishes this evening with dry and warmer conditions Friday into early Saturday morning with the amplifying upper ridge and the deepening lee trough.
A cold front is also expected to move south into the area during the overnight and morning hours, turning winds to the north at all sites by mid to late morning Friday. /issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) A disturbance moving across the Plains will swing a cold front across the region. This combined with the passing low pressure will create conditions that are more favorable for thunderstorm development. Otherwise, look for slightly cooler temperatures for Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will settle into the low to mid 70s tonight.
High pressure will keep this period mainly dry as an approaching upper trough and surface front are stalled well west of the area by TS Isaias.
339 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 H500 upper level low pressure continues to slowly move east/southeast and away from the forecast.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 90 71 88 / 70 50 60 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 90 71 88 / 70 60 60 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 87 71 88 71 87 / 80 60 60 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 68 87 68 87 / 70 60 60 30 60.
355 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend with multiple passing low pressure systems. This will setup a situation were temperatures north of the Mason Dixon line and west of the ridges will experience warmer temperatures due to the increase in sunshine. Another area of low pressure, originating in the Plains, will undergo cyclogenesis as it traverses through the flow toward the Ohio Valley. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain through mid week as another longwave trough digs south of the Great Lakes. Restrictions are likely Sat and Sat night with crossing low pressure. Restriction potential returns late Sun through Tue under a persistent upper trough.
This low is just now starting to fill and slowly drift to the south, providing some relief to that hard hit region.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage this morning, particularly close to the front over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois as the upper low currently over eastern Kansas moves east. Britt There is reasonable agreement between the EPS and the GEFS mean that trough over Midwest on Saturday night will be reinforced by a second trough dropping down out Canada late in the weekend.
2 micron water vapor imagery shows a fairly substantial mid-upper cyclone to our northeast.
Cold front and its associated chances for convection still maintain its trek to begin crossing the international border between 13-16 UTC. Otherwise, will have to wait higher PoPs to come with the cold front now moving through central SK/MB.
331 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Secondary cold front surge is moving south through the forecast area early this morning which has kicked off another round of showers and thunderstorms along it primarily across the western South Plains. This frontal boundary is also ushering in cooler air compared to yesterday. Convection should develop on the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado this afternoon and then drop to the south and east through the evening. /WCI A high amplitude upper level ridge axis will cover the intermountain west through the weekend, with the Texas South Plains region in moderate north to northwest flow aloft.
High temperatures today are expected to be held into the upper 80s due to the anticipated early start to convection while the remainder of the CWA reaches the lower 90s. Morning lows Saturday will be near normal in the lower 70s.
/Today through Saturday/ An upper trough will slowly move southeast through the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley during the short-term period. Vertical ascent from this trough will help to develop multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a surface cold front, which currently extends from Southern Missouri southwest through Northwest Arkansas, Eastern and Southern Oklahoma, and into Western North Texas. Instability in excess of 2500 J/kg should result in rapid development along the advancing cold front near the Interstate 30 corridor around midday or early afternoon. With the upper trough still over the region and the stalled frontal boundary just to the south, more scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in our southernmost counties and parishes of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana once again Saturday afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend resulting in hot and mostly dry conditions.
An upper level trough axis slowly moving across the region will impact TAF sites with VFR/MVFR cigs and at times in RA/TSRA MVFR vsbys. Elements expected to improve to VFR levels from west to east beginning in the afternoon as the trough axis moves east of the area. The latest mesoscale analysis shows instability is starting to decrease slightly across southeast Oklahoma with shear starting to increase as the short wave trough moves into the region. Regardless, scattered to widespread shower and storm activity is expected through the overnight hours as the 700mb short wave trough dives into the area.
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 High pressure currently over the Northland will continue to keep skies mostly clear overnight. Lows tonight are expected to be in the low to mid 50s. High pressure over the region will slowly move eastward tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect cloud cover to gradually increase throughout the day, with highs in the low 80s. Model guidance has been in decent agreement regarding the timing of the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms across the Northland are expected to continue into Saturday, as the cold front continues to propagate eastward. These showers and thunderstorms will start to taper off Saturday evening and overnight, as the cold front passes through.
1254 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend with multiple passing low pressure systems. This will setup a situation were temperatures north of the Mason Dixon line and west of the ridges will experience warmer temperatures due to the increase in sunshine. Another area of low pressure, originating in the Plains, will undergo cyclogenesis as it traverses through the flow toward the Ohio Valley. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain through mid week as another longwave trough digs south of the Great Lakes. Restrictions are likely Sat and Sat night with crossing low pressure. Restriction potential returns late Sun through Tue under a persistent upper trough.
Mid-level trough continues to deepen toward the Gulf coast today with an advancing weak surface boundary. Seasonal temps will continue with high temperatures from the low 90s east to just above 100 northwest.
235 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a departing trough east of the region, extending from southwest Missouri to northern Texas. Behind the disturbance, ridging amplified along the Intermountain West, placing the High Plains under north to northwest flow. The trough deepens along the Mississippi River today as the ridge prevails across the western half of the country. Northwest flow continues on Saturday as the upper trough and ridge remain nearly stationary. A cold front approaches the region as a disturbance pushes through the flow, generating chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening hours.
There is an easterly gradient due to a thermal trough over Washington and a high pressure system dropping out of Canada, east of the Continental Divide.
Thermal ridge builds northward ahead of the boundary, which should help our western counties warm into the mid-upper 80s today. Limited mixing in the weak flow across the eastern CWA, along with just overall cooler low level temperatures will keep highs closer to 80 across our far east. Should still be able to squeeze out some readings in the lower 80s on Saturday, but otherwise looking at cooler, almost early fall-like period settling in as we move into August. Region will be situated between slow-moving upper trough moving through the Great Lakes and eastern Canada, and a ridge building over the Rockies.
203 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 As high pressure exits to the southeast this morning, low pressure will set up a boundary from northeast to southwest and push through the region this afternoon through Saturday morning. Cooler and drier air will drop in behind this front as high pressure builds down from Canada on Saturday. The cooler air behind the boundary may allow for some small hail or gusty winds, though. Much cooler highs are anticipated for Saturday as northerly breezes kick in. Initially the area will see dry conditions with below average temperatures for the first few days of August with high pressure anchored across central Canada extending southwards into the northern plains, and an upper low over the eastern CONUS.
319 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Overnight WV/IR satellite imagery showed a upper trough situated over the Lower MO/Middle MS Valleys, and a upper ridge axis from the Desert Southwest to the Northern Rockies. The short term will be influenced by a upper ridge parked over the Intermountain West.
526 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Overnight WV/IR satellite imagery showed a upper trough situated over the Lower MO/Middle MS Valleys, and a upper ridge axis from the Desert Southwest to the Northern Rockies. The short term will be influenced by a upper ridge parked over the Intermountain West.
526 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a departing trough east of the region, extending from southwest Missouri to northern Texas. Behind the disturbance, ridging amplified along the Intermountain West, placing the High Plains under north to northwest flow. The trough deepens along the Mississippi River today as the ridge prevails across the western half of the country. Northwest flow continues on Saturday as the upper trough and ridge remain nearly stationary. A cold front approaches the region as a disturbance pushes through the flow, generating chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening hours.
658 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Like a broken record, high pressure will continue to dominate the region on Friday. Friday night, lows will be in the low-60s and a cold front will approach from the northwest in advance of a positively tilted upper-level trough centered over the Hudson Bay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the MN portion of the CWA as the cold front pushes through Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s across the western CWA with in the eastern portion in the low 80s. By Saturday night, the cold front will be draped from northeast to southwest across western WI into southeastern MN.
456 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low centered over southwest MO. This feature will lift slightly east today, gradually opening up and consolidating with a longwave trof over the middle and lower MS River valley. Convection will continue today in the warm sector ahead of the longwave trof axis. Additional wrap around showers will likely follow just ahead of the 500mb trof axis on Saturday, with some early daytime storms possible near the TN River.
520 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 As models had indicated over the past several days, the atmosphere has become progressively drier as high pressure has anchored over the Southwest.
626 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 As high pressure exits to the southeast this morning, low pressure will set up a boundary from northeast to southwest and push through the region this afternoon through Saturday morning. Cooler and drier air will drop in behind this front as high pressure builds down from Canada on Saturday. The cooler air behind the boundary may allow for some small hail or gusty winds, though. Much cooler highs are anticipated for Saturday as northerly breezes kick in. Initially the area will see dry conditions with below average temperatures for the first few days of August with high pressure anchored across central Canada extending southwards into the northern plains, and an upper low over the eastern CONUS.
There's a slight chance for a few diurnal cumulus clouds to develop this afternoon, but mostly sunny skies will otherwise prevail with high temperatures rising into the low 80s. Weak warm air advection will develop Friday night in advance of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front and a weak attendant upper level short wave will drop south out of Canada and into northern Minnesota Friday night, bringing rain chances to northeastern Minnesota. A cold front will continue sliding through the region from northwest to southeast Saturday night with rain and thunder chances accompanying its' passage.
The front and SHRA/TSRA will disrupt the lower level flow keeping CIGs VFR tonight. An upper level trough drifts from the Great Plains today to the Mississippi Valley on Saturday while extending into southern Texas. A cold front north of I-20 will drop south aided by convective outflows and a northerly flow aloft. For now, expect upward forcing by the front and upper trough on a moist airmass (PWs around 2 inches) to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern areas today and most areas tonight into Saturday with heating adding to the forcing during the daytime hours.
617 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 H500 upper level low pressure continues to slowly move east/southeast and away from the forecast.
554 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 /12Z TAFS/ Low clouds are starting to develop along and behind a cold front moving south through the area, as well as along the I-10 corridor. /issued 408 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving through the Big Country. Highs today will be a little cooler overall, with highs from the low 90s north of I-20 to near 100 degrees far south.
Due to the drier air and limit shower activity it will be a warmer afternoon with heat indices around 105 this afternoon.