Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However models show that an upper ridge will begin to build over the srn/central plains tonight putting our cwa in nw flow. The highest and best chc of pcpn will be N of the TN river and E of I65. This is due to a building ridge across the region.
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 A cluster of thunderstorms, which developed earlier this afternoon over the Texas Panhandle has advanced through the Low Rolling Plains and into southwestern Oklahoma this evening. While the July ridge remains overhead, we do expect it to weaken slightly over the next few days.
with the highest potential of stronger storms over eastern portions. Ridge will be over region aloft and southerly llvl flow will prevail over the Plains. Deep mid lvl trough fcst to move into pacific nw. There will likely be a dryline over the region given the location and the strength of the trough. Given the location of the mid lvl trough and increasing flow aloft. Trough will move across the region Sun nite and a cool front will likely come down the plains Mon morning.
some short term model guidance is attempting to hold together the convection presently developing over the high plains and propagating it eastward across the local area during the early evening hours.
For temps, with a drier airmass, combined with a bit of subsidence from an upper ridge over the central/southern Gulf, low to mid 90s expected over most of the fa.
Will therefore transition the higher POPs of the rest of the afternoon into slight chance POPs for the first couple hours after 00z.
Not sure how much fog may develop with a relatively decent pressure gradient keep the low levels mixed.
907 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 A surface pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
A weak upper level ridge will keep skies clear to partly cloudy skies will continue this evening.
The next low pressure system will strengthen and move onshore Sat, then will move into the northern Great Basin on Sun. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures will follow for early in the next work week. The next low pressure disturbance will strengthen over the pacific northwest late this week.
711 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 A ridge across the eastern Great Lakes will continue to weaken ahead of an area of low pressure that is expected to move across the Central Great Lakes this evening.
A warm front and approaching low pressure will combine to bring a chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
High pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions tonight.
Upper low/trough has brought mild, breezy, and dry weather to our area today, but the trough will move east tonight replaced by a low-amplitude ridge Thursday. The ridge will bring warming Thursday with temps rising to July normal.
Rest of Tonight: Heat indices across the KICT Neighborhood have dropped below the advisory criteria with the highest indices from 100 to 103 in only a few locations. Mid-level warm advection does increase overnight but the lower-deck moisture transport via the low-level jet may be sufficient to 'spark' a few thunderstorms in SE KS from around 4 AM thru daybreak.
It is possible as additional clouds move south that these cooler areas will stabilize and possibly warm a deg but it is hard to say at this point. However models show that an upper ridge will begin to build over the srn/central plains tonight putting our cwa in nw flow. The highest and best chc of pcpn will be N of the TN river and E of I65. This is due to a building ridge across the region.
It's interesting to note that areas from about Memphis westward are capped off with +12 or higher temps at 700 mbar with even warmer air getting advected from the west. /ISSUED / Convection has continued to develop over far southern Illinois down into western Kentucky this evening as upper low now centered over far southern illinois near Carbondale with 50 knot mid level speed max just south of low center.
Have made adjustments to the grids to account for the higher pops over the next few hours.
A warm front will likely extend west-east across far northern IL much of the day Thursday with dewpoints in the mid 70s south of the boundary. Temperatures should max out for the day around 90 along I- 74 to the low 90s from Springfield through Effingham to Lawrenceville resulting in heat index reaching around 100 degrees to 105 in a few pockets in the warmer areas. This will be close to heat advisory criteria in the warmer areas.
1140 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Upper air pattern continues a suppressed ridge across the southern conus with nearly zonal flow across the high plains. A trough/low is moving east near the Montana/Canadian border. At the surface a low was analyzed across northeast Wyoming with a warm front/stationary boundary to the southeast across the panhandle of Nebraska then curves east across southern Nebraska. A cold front trails from the low to the southwest. First is the low as it pushes towards the Black Hills.
Storms that formed at the base of the trof across Inland SE GA quickly moved along the Atlamaha River Basin and offshore early this evening with a few minor damage reports. High pressure will continue to control atmosphere and suppress convection across most of the area, and as mid/upper level trof over the SE U.
/issued 217 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A fairly stagnant weather pattern continues as an elongated 500 mb ridge remains parked across Texas, maintaining the continued hot, humid, and rain free conditions across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.
642 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure will move across the region today, providing dry weather and cool temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region tonight into Tuesday, bringing rain showers to the area. Northwest flow aloft has develop across the Ohio valley in between departing upper low over New England and next trof over southern Canada. Temperatures will be a ltl warmer than yda but will still be around 10 degrees below normal, with highs generally in the lower and middle 60s. Favorable lift will push off to the east Tuesday night with inverted trof as aforementioned upper level trof settles into the Great Lakes.
The eastern trough has kept us cool through the weekend, and it's persistence will help keep it cool for another few days.
Meanwhile, the closed low which will have been located over the intermountain west at 12z today will gradually settle southward into the four corners region over the next few days, eventually becoming an open wave. A large low pressure system then moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest late this week.
149 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 An upper low north of Pennsylvania will funnel very cold air into the state tonight with a late season freeze likely in some western and northern higher elevations.
High pressure over the Bluegrass state will drift east to the Carolinas today. Meanwhile as low pressure begins to develop near the Texas and Oklahoma pan handle. an associated warm front will begin to surge north toward the ohio valley.
618 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will settle across the Carolinas today before shifting offshore. A cold front will drop slowly south of the Carolinas mid week and then return as a warm front late in the week. previous discussion follows: Today will start off dry and unseasonably cool as high pressure now centered over western Kentucky builds overhead. Cloud cover will thicken, with rain chances increasing through the overnight hours as isentropic lift increases in advance of a warm front lifting north across the Carolinas.
Furthermore, the low level jet will be supplemented by lift from a cold front moving southward. The cold front will continue south of the area early Tuesday with low level instability axis hugging southern areas perhaps able to contribute into thunder chances building westward.
257 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2016 Energy rotating around an upper level low located over southern Idaho will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of eastern Utah and western Colorado through Tuesday. As the low drops or sags south into Utah, colder air will slide south with it. Overall a very similar weather day is expected with showers and thunderstorms throughout the region and some accumulating snowfall for the highest peaks.
1032 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Scattered showers will linger over the southern Idaho Panhandle Monday before high pressure brings a dry and warm day to the entire region Tuesday.
Southwest Montana still under the gun for showers Monday due to circulation around the upper low over southern Idaho. Monsoonal moisture wrapping around the upper level low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will continue the numerous showers overnight along and south of a Choteau to Lewistown line. The low pressure area will weaken as it drifts southeast into the central Rockies Monday through Tuesday. High pressure aloft will then move into the region from the west Monday night through Tuesday, bringing clearing skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will gradually warm through the period with the exit of the upper low.
357 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 On balance, slightly cooler than normal temperatures this week, with at least a slight chance of rain over a part of the Midsouth each day. Subtropical midlevel moisture extended into eastern TX and the lower MS river valley, ahead of an upper low over northern Mexico. By early Tuesday, 60s dewpoints will return to the I-40 corridor, pooling along a developing cold front. The cold front will drop through the Midsouth Tuesday night, in response to midlevel height falls over Ohio Valley and perhaps aided by a convective outflow.
Meanwhile, a northern stream trough will drop southeast through the eastern Dakotas and western Great Lakes. the northern stream Great Lakes trough and upper ridging into the northern High Plains will end pops across the nern half of fa this evening with 40-50 pops lingering across the sern Panhandle and swrn Nebr this evening.
A warm front is progged to extend across southern Kansas this afternoon/evening where main thunderstorm focus will remain.
141 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure will move across the region tonight and into the day on Monday. A low pressure system will move into the region Monday night into Tuesday bringing rain showers to the area. Winds are remaining up somewhat but these too should taper off through mid to late evening as high pressure starts to build in from the west and we begin to decouple. Current forecast looks to be in pretty good shape with lows ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s in the east to the low to mid 30s in the west. High pressure will slide off to the east on Monday. Cloud cover will increase across the area through the day as a low pressure system begins to approach.
The afore mentioned cold front will push south through much of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.
A weak backdoor cold front will push east to west across the forecast area tonight resulting in mainly a wind shift and maybe a little higher dewpoints. Higher dewpoint exist to the east of the frontal boundary and also over the far southwest where there could be a little increased moisture pulled into the area from the upper low over the northern Rockies. We lowered afternoon dewpoints again from default guidance and went a little higher than guidance temperatures for Monday west, but a little colder in the east, behind the passage of the backdoor cold front.
A low pressure system will move south into the desert southwest by midweek.
An upper low over ne Oregon will continue to produce showers over sw Washington and nw Oregon today. The showers will decrease from west to east as the upper low moves further to the east. An upper level ridge will move over the area Monday night and Tuesday for drier and warmer weather.
627 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Low pressure will remain north of Maine today then exit across the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
High pressure will pass directly overhead today as conditions remain cool and dry. Later tonight as the high drifts offshore. light southerly return flow and an increase in moisture will help moderate low temperatures into the low 50s across the north with upper 50s to near 60 degrees in the south. Tuesday and Tuesday night: The forecast gets more complicated heading into mid-week as moisture streams eastward along a warm front stemming from a decaying low pressure system over the southern plains. The problem may be that the best of these parameters do not align with the highest shear values across the north and the highest instability in the south.
The next piece of energy will eject out of the western upper low Monday night leading to a surface wave which will lift a warm front toward the forecast area on Tuesday.
123 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 A dry and cool pressure ridge will remain in the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will move off the coast Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
Large upper level low continues to stream moisture into central MT. This looks to be the furthest north this precip will get this morning as the upper low dives SE into ID and WY. a ridge of high pressure will enter into eastern MT from Canada. and push the remnant moisture from this low back south. north and central MT should see overcast skies give way to partly clear skies and the return of near normal temps in the low to mid 60s. Dry air from the mentioned high pressure system begins to bring mainly clear skies across the high plains of MT.
Readings are slowly falling into the middle 40s to the lower 50s in more elevated areas. Lapse rates are rather steep, but effective shear is minimal in this low topped convection.
Residual showers and thunderstorms are expected today as an upper low that is currently directly over the cwa, slowly drifts south. By Tuesday, the low is expected to be far enough south that most of the wrap around moisture will also be south of the CWA. A transitional ridge will push its way in with a NE to SW axis on Tuesday as well, so high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above Monday's highs.
239 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 Light rain showers are overspreading the area early this morning, north of a warm frontal zone which is taking shape across the southern Plains. Rainfall has been rather light so far given a decent layer of dry air in the low levels, but coverage/intensity should gradually increase through the day. Severe weather potential with this MCS is very much up in the air, as it will depend on where exactly the surface warm front sets up.
This one will be due to a cold front approaching LA.
High pressure will pass directly overhead today as conditions remain cool and dry. Excellent radiational cooling conditions will yield lows in the lower to mid 40s. Lows from the lower 50s NE to around 60 across the southern CWA.
As upper trough moves further east PoPs will decrease west to east today. PWAT values will increase during the day Tuesday and disturbances coming off upper low will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer today and Tuesday, though timing of rain ending today could throw max values off.
421 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure will move across the region today, providing dry weather and cool temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region tonight into Tuesday, bringing rain showers to the area. Northwest flow aloft has develop across the Ohio valley in between departing upper low over New England and next trof over southern Canada. Temperatures will be a ltl warmer than yda but will still be around 10 degrees below normal, with highs generally in the lower and middle 60s. Favorable lift will push off to the east Tuesday night with inverted trof as aforementioned upper level trof settles into the Great Lakes.
225 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2016 Low pressure aloft will continue a deep marine layer with extensive night and morning low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle through Tuesday.
609 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley will move off the mid Atlantic coast today. This will allow a weak cold front to push south across the forecast area Tuesday.
The highest probabilities for a few strong/severe storms with large hail and locally heavy rainfall will be across portions of South Central Kansas near the Oklahoma state line Monday evening and Monday night. The bigger concern may be locally heavy rain along and north of the warm front where around 2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible.
Temperatures along and west of US 27/127 are generally in the lower to mid 40s. An early morning surface analysis showed high pressure centered across eastern kentucky and West Virginia with mostly clear skies per latest IR satellite imagery. High temperatures were nudged down compared to the previous forecast, and many areas may stay down in the low/mid 50s for highs.
A wet and cool day is in store as a low pressure area propagates off the rockies onto the plains. East winds will be the norm through the day and tonight as low pressure moves to the south of the area. Aloft: The mean longwave trof will be over the Wrn USA this week. the low currently moving into the Gulf of AK will crest the E Pac ridge and dive into the Wrn USA trof Thu-Fri. A ridge will develop over the Plains between these systems Sat. The flow will become SW next Sun as the ridge departs into the MS Valley. Tue: The 700 mb trof will drop S. Temps turn warmer than normal Sun.
High pressure will extend from the Mississippi Valley, across Indiana, to the east coast through Monday.
Areas of rain with isolated showers/thunderstorms continued along and east of the I-35 corridor early this morning ahead of an upper level trough moving east of the Texas Big Bend region. As the troughs, surface and aloft, continue to move east, the showers/thunderstorms end by midday. A moisture convergence zone sets up generally along the Highway 281 corridor Tuesday afternoon while a cold front moves into Central Texas Tuesday afternoon and across South Central Texas Tuesday evening and night.
Pattern for NorCal transitions to a warmer one with breezy northerly winds early this week as the upper air pattern over the western CONUS amplifies with the weekend trough digging through the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest and ridging building over the eastern Pacific.
648 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Cool and dry Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region this morning, before sliding offshore by late afternoon.
A deep upper trough over the Great Lakes region resulted in very chilly weather the past few days. Remnants of the trough will linger the next couple days, then split flow over the western CONUS will expand eastward across the region. and Tuesday Cold front crossing the region today now expected to clear the area earlier in the day than previously anticipated.
A warm front south of the cwa coupled with an embedded impulse nearing the region. Right on the heels of the departing mcs is a cold front.
Upper low has moved into the western Idaho region placing deformation zone across our western CWA. Upper low will shift into northern Utah/southern Idaho by midday Monday. We are still looking for some isolated rumbles of thunder over and near the higher terrain late today. Upper low drops south into southern Nevada late Monday.
613 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 An upper low north of Pennsylvania will lift northward away from PA today.
334 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 The short term period begins with a strong high pressure system for this time of year anchored over the Ohio valley with ridging southward through the lower Mississippi valley.
The first is drawing to a close today, as the upper level low that brought showers and some thunder to our area over the past several days finally slides off to the East. With upper level ridging building overhead, the thermal trough will strengthen this afternoon and evening, then push north Tuesday.
Cold front overtakes dryline tonight, providing an additional convergence zone for thunderstorms. Much cooler area-wide on Tuesday as cool moist northeast winds continue under a cloudy sky with isolated rain showers.
There could still be some patchy frost in the higher elevation along the TN/NC line and in SW VA but not widespread enough to issue a frost advisory. At the surface, high pressure continues across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys with a leftover surface boundary along the Gulf Coast. The leftover boundary across the Gulf Coast will slowly left northwards as a warm front with isentropic lift increasing. Models indicate that the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain relatively dry and it will take some time before precipitation to occur across the region. The low levels will eventually become saturated enough after 06z thanks to continued isentropic lift for widespread light precip.
High pressure at the surface will be the dominate weather feature through Tuesday night. It will still be cool the next several nights with lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
An early morning surface analysis showed high pressure centered across eastern kentucky and West Virginia with mostly clear skies per latest IR satellite imagery. High temperatures were nudged down compared to the previous forecast, and many areas may stay down in the low/mid 50s for highs.
Another cold front will move south into the area Tuesday morning, but any ramifications from the front will occur beyond this TAF forecast period.
High pressure will remain over the area through Monday night. Low pressure will track across southern Virginia Tuesday.
There could still be some patchy frost in the higher elevation along the TN/NC line and in SW VA but not widespread enough to issue a frost advisory. At the surface, high pressure continues across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys with a leftover surface boundary along the Gulf Coast. The leftover boundary across the Gulf Coast will slowly left northwards as a warm front with isentropic lift increasing. Models indicate that the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain relatively dry and it will take some time for precipitation to occur across the region. The low levels will eventually become saturated enough after 06z thanks to continued isentropic lift for widespread light precip.
As expected, southwest flow ahead of the low pressure to our northwest allowed moisture to increase overnight and today. The stronger storms have produced some pea to dime sized hail but the bigger concern has been gusty surface winds with the highest report being 52MPH from the Montrose airport. By daybreak Monday, the low pressure will be just entering northern Utah with plenty of moisture still remaining in our CWA.
146 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure slides through this morning. Moisture increases later today north of a warm front.
404 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Low pressure will remain north of Maine today then exit across the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
333 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley will move off the mid Atlantic coast today. This will allow a weak cold front to push south across the forecast area Tuesday.
A piece of energy is rounding the base of the trough this morning and will eject northeast into the Plains by tonight. low pressure will develop at the surface over northeast NM. The frontal boundary that pushed thru the area this past weekend will return north as a warm front. With main upper trough to our west.
508 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 The combination of an anomalous upper level trough over the northeast CONUS and an active subtropical stream is resulting in a split upper level pattern that is favorable for an active baroclinic zone and wet weather over the ArkLaMiss.
Anticipate this band of showers to propagate south/southeast and then dissipate by mid-morning (which follows the lower res models depiction of fgen). Ridging builds into the region through the period. Temperatures expected to be a bit warmer each day.
An area of low pressure will bring cooler temperatures to the area along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert by Tuesday.