Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 700 MB REMAIN QUITE MOIST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THE 850 MB AND 925 MB TROUGH AXES ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. KEEPING A COOL WEDGE REGIME WITH A LOW LEVEL MOIST STABLE AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO HELP REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL STABILITY. AND ON SATURDAY WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPS.
1136 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAK BROAD UPPER TROF OVR ERN QB XTNDG SWRD INTO THE N HLF OF THE FA THRU SAT. WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E OF THE FA LATER SAT NGT INTO SUN. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM CNTRL CAN COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVR SRN QB BY LATE WED INTO WED NGT. AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THU AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVR SRN QB. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATER TODAY.
WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND SE GA AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN AS THE TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTH. AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
1019 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND THE GREAT LAKES SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA.
1159 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
1104 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WEAK TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU INLAND FROM THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CLEARING AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CREATING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
1241 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HYDRO A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN.
848 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH EARLY SATURDAY.
740 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AVIATION A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN.
1155 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST SOME. WITH UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE E CONUS. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BETWEEN 14-18Z SOUTH AND AROUND 18Z NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS SHIFTING EAST.
821 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAK BROAD UPPER TROF OVR ERN QB XTNDG SWRD INTO THE N HLF OF THE FA THRU SAT. WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E OF THE FA LATER SAT NGT INTO SUN. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM CNTRL CAN COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVR SRN QB BY LATE WED INTO WED NGT. AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THU AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVR SRN QB. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE WIDE SPREAD SUBSIDENCE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER. AS ADVERTISED THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYERED EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND SIT TIGHT ON SATURDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT TO HEAT AND MODELS CONCUR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES AS THE RIDGE DEEPENS IT GRIP ON THE CWA SATURDAY. DIURNAL WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE BREEZY RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE SIERRA MADRE COMBINING WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER GULF WATERS.
855 AM PDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORCAL WILL MOVE EAST TODAY, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
1038 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.
PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE IS HIGHER TO OUR NORTH AND THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH GEORGIA. AN OVERALL SCATTERED COVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS DROPPED BACK ACROSS SOUTH FL SO THERE WILL BE A STRONGER OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KNOTS. EXPECT A CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS FOR 15-20 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRES GRAD TIGHTENS.
734 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND THE GREAT LAKES SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA.
1147 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE SOUNDING STILL HAS INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2900 J/KG THOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND STORMS HARD TO COME BY TODAY.
1143 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 UPDATE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN.
731 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING FEATURES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER.
641 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 CLDS WILL BE LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS THE ATMOSPHERE IN CHECK. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER HOT WEATHER DAY. GFS SHIFTS UPPER RIDGE INTO ARKLATEX REGION THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER WEST. AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN U.
/ISSUED 641 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/ CLDS WILL BE LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS THE ATMOSPHERE IN CHECK. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER HOT WEATHER DAY. GFS SHIFTS UPPER RIDGE INTO ARKLATEX REGION THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER WEST. AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN U.
657 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 AT H5 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH WEAK RIDGING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE IS BEING KNOCKED DOWN BY CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ALONG MEXICAN COAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WRAPPING INTO LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO MCS AND SHIFT EAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
929 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UNDERNEATH AN UPPER JET. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN FORCING ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE UPPER JET. BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY NEAR THE UPPER LOW.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 69 93 71 / 20 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 68 89 69 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 67 89 69 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 66 86 65 / 30 10 10 10.
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED AS WELL. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS LINGER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER THE APPROACHING H500 RIDGE. CL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND MOSTLY DRY. SAVE FOR A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
/ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/ FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. HEAT CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THOSE LOCALES.
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW.
UPPER RIDGING HANGS ON INTO SUNDAY (EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
COURTESY OF A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WAS PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF KPOF. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS 850 MB WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. EXPECT ENOUGH SUN TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THEY WEAKEN WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY.
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS: The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains. Further east, weak warm advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered showers across mainly southwest Missouri.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES THE CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NERN UTAH THIS AFTN. A 90-KT JET IS ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INCREASING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WHERE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS PLACED THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
1052 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015 The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average, with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region by tonight, it looks like it won't have a significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascade we have for this afternoon.
GIVEN THAT MOST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. BUT GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. KEEPING THE METRO AREA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARMER THAN ADJACENT RURAL LANDS AND VALLEYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. TAX HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION.
559 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PA/WV/MD RIDGES. BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire area for tonight. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave rotating it and deep moisture already in place.
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF INDIANA/S WEATHER INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST.
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 CURRENTLY WATCHING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTH THOUGH MN. CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT.
1230 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW.
330 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10 KTS. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.
303 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AS WELL AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWESTERN STATES. HAS LED TO A SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ARE RIDING UP AND ALONG THIS BROAD RIDGING PATTERN. BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TOMORROW AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS GAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE EASTWARD. EXPECT THAT ALL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE HIGH VARIETY. THE ONLY IMPACT THIS SCT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE IS TO PREVENT SUCH A LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAIN STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA. FROM THE LOW OVER HAIDA GWAII. THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL PUMP UP A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD.
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
127 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW.
331 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL SLOWLY LIFT N-NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS QUIETED DOWN THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AND LIMITING BOTH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LOWER LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD, SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH, CONTINUING TO BRING MIX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT. FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED LITTLE OVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY ON ITS NORTHEAST COURSE AND REACH EASTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE FOR LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALLOWING AFTN HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID- AND UPPER 60S TOMORROW AND LOW 70S ON MON.
THE LOWEST LCL AND LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW BUT LEFT OVER MOISTURE MAINLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS WILL PRODUCE AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSRA AND ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES.
Expect activity to train from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper low in the Great Basin. The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 STRONG HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY H100-H70 ERLY FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A DISIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BUT MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINS QUITE WEAK THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W ATLC ASSOCD WITH MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AOB 30PCT. (PREV DIS) BREEZY ONSHORE WIND FLOW REGIME BEGINS TO EASE SOME AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS. SO EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL BE WEAKENING MID-LATE WEEK. THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE- 700MB EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE HIGHEST POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL WI AT 19Z. THERE IS A SFC TROF IN NW MN AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW WI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORCING DRIVING THE LIGHT RAIN WEAKENS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE CHARGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE ELSEWHERE.
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.