Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current synoptic setup shows a mid-level trough across much of the eastern US with a developing low pressure system moving northeast towards the Ohio Valley. This system is expected to push a cold front through the area late this evening and into early Monday morning. With the cooler and drier air moving in behind the front, Monday is expected to be clear and dry with slightly increased winds and cooler high temperatures than today. the previous While quiet and dry ridge dominated regime starts out the first part of the work week, a more active pattern shift sets up midweek.
This will be short lived as the still very nearby moisture will be draw north rapidly this evening in response to the next developing trough in WRN US.
Tonight, a dry cold front will move south across our area, bringing a quick surge of slightly cooler air and slightly increased northerly winds, but no rain. A brief, slight cooldown is expected during the day on Monday in the wake of the weak front with highs ranging from the lower 60s over the northwestern portions of the forecast area to the lower 70s southeastern sections and along the coast. Skies will also begin clearing more after the weak frontal passage and as the ridge aloft and surface ridging begins to become more dominant over the region by Monday afternoon.
134 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 A slow-moving cold front is working its way across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with a band of mainly light showers accompanying the front. So look for much cooler temperatures tonight and especially tomorrow night as readings bottom out in the low to mid 30's.
(This evening through Monday) Weak cold front sagging south towards I-10 late this afternoon, with a slightly cooler air mass settling into the central and northern portions of the area.
1034 AM MST Sun Nov 22 2020 MORNING UPDATE: Localized locations along the International border may struggle to get warmer than the 20s. Dropped the high temperatures along the Opheim plateau a couple degrees. Roxy MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast Begins with western to central Montana under a ridge which runs north into Alberta. Behind it is a trough stepping on shore of the Pacific Northwest. Farther west a pattern of progressive ridge-trough couplets exists over the northeast Pacific. Ridge will move across the area keeping conditions dry.
225 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 Snow and rain showers will gradually diminish, followed by low temperatures generally near freezing.
Rain will be possible Monday afternoon into night, particularly over central and northeastern MO and west-central IL, as an area of weak mid-level frontogenesis lifts northeast in association with a developing low-level cyclone in the lee of the Rocky Mountains.
227 PM MST Sun Nov 22 2020 Current Visible Satellite loop and 500mb height plot across the Front Range and intermountain west shows the ridge axis moving east over the eastern plains at this hour as high clouds are moving northeast into Carbon county.
222 PM MST Sun Nov 22 2020 An upper ridge of high pressure has allowed for plenty of sun and light winds across the area today. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms over the next several days despite the passage of a trough on Monday.
Dry and breezy conditions developed Sunday afternoon, with otherwise fair weather under a transient upper level ridge. Moisture is limited with this trough, but the combination of dynamic forcing and orographic lift will help produce snowfall along and near the Continental Divide Monday through Monday night. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for Monday, but overall remain seasonal.
For the short term, a cold front and accompanying showers will exit northeast MS through late afternoon, as an upper trof over the Ozarks lifts to the lower/mid MS River valley. GOES East visible imagery showed developing breaks in the low clouds over east central AR and southern MO. Post-frontal cool season stratus often persist for days over the Midsouth, but it appears that sufficient drying will occur in the lowest 2kft for some clear spots to develop, and perhaps expand even after sunset. Fair weather will prevail Monday, under low amplitude ridging.
533 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 As a weak low pressure system slowly pushes into the western Great Lakes, an area of backwash low clouds and cooler, northwesterly winds will continue to drag across these northern plains. A weak H5 ridge slides over the area tonight, providing some subsident warming and drying aloft, and helping to dissipate our low level cloudiness.
702 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 Low pressure will lift northeast out of Ohio tonight.
Thick mid to high clouds have now overspread Northwest Alabama ahead of a cold front currently stretched east of Memphis and just west of Nashville. Short term guidance suggests the front will make it south of the forecast area by midnight, and northwest continental flow will advect cooler and drier conditions into the area. Will begin the Thanksgiving week cool and dry, as an upper level trough axis slides east off the Atlantic coast and northwest flow remains dominant on Monday.
Some spots across northwest AR could drop to near freezing by daybreak resulting in some patchy freezing fog as well. The upper flow continues to amplify on Monday as a trough now off the coast of the Pacific Northwest digs into the Great Basin. With the cool high pressure sliding east and the thickening and increasing clouds during the day afternoon temps are expected to remain in the 50s.
333 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Generally clear skies and breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon across the forecast area as the upper level trough moves off towards the Great Lakes region.
A slow-moving cold front is working its way across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with a band of mainly light showers accompanying the front. So look for much cooler temperatures tonight and especially tomorrow night as readings bottom out in the low to mid 30's.
725 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 Aloft North America this evening ridging over Mexico stretches to the Canadian prairies. a trough north of the Great Lakes extends to the northern Gulf of Mexico. and ridging was offshore the southeast US coast. low pressure near the lower Great Lakes trails a cold front southwestward to the western Gulf coast. and weak Atlantic high pressure is across FL and the east Gulf. with the upper trough ejecting offshore and sweeping the front down the state Mon with ridging both surface and aloft settling into the Gulf. Lows tonight run a few degrees above normal while the highs Mon will be closer to normal. High pressure across the waters slides east Mon as a front sweeps down the state and high pressure builds into the Gulf then tracks east during the week.
The cold front is pushing through the far western portion of our area, and the associated band of showers is moving across our area as well. A band of showers will move through associated with a cold front. Expecting fair and dry conditions for Monday with high temps close to seasonal norms as high pressure builds in.
520 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Skies will clear overnight into Monday as high pressure approaches the area.
519 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Generally clear skies and breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon across the forecast area as the upper level trough moves off towards the Great Lakes region.
310 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 (Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020) Tonight through Monday night: A cold front will continue eastward over southern WI tonight and may bring some light rain/snow showers to the Fond du Lac and Sheboygan areas. Tomorrow, high pressure will then take hold allowing us to clear out for mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions.
Afternoon satellite reveals increased cloud cover across interior NorCal as an upper level trough digs into the PacNW. Can't rule out additional light rain or snow showers over the northern mountains and perhaps the high northern Sierra Nevada this afternoon into the evening per latest high resolution models.
644 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Upper level ridging will continue shifting east over the area through tonight. At the surface, a ridge axis of high pressure will shift east of the area tonight with return southerly flow developing. Otherwise with the approach of the west coast system, south winds will increase as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to low pressure developing leeward the Rockies.
A deep trough over central Iowa and cloud cover to the east are progressing out of the area this afternoon.
As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range form around freezing across west central Kansas to upper 30s across far southwestern Kansas.
415 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 Rain is expected through tonight with crossing low pressure.
Trough / area of low pressure moves through the area tomorrow bringing no precipitation. 97 An upper ridge of high pressure has allowed for plenty of sun and light winds across the area today. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms over the next several days despite the passage of a trough on Monday.
351 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Cold front is in the process of becoming bridged by the high pressure surge from the north as the leading edge settles into the area. Little in the way of cold air advection with the front, so only a fw degrees cooler tonight then last night but about 8-10 degrees lower on max temperatures Monday.
844 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Skies will clear overnight into Monday as high pressure approaches the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Weak mid-level ridging overhead will continue to provide subsidence across the region through the short-term. The associated cold front across central Texas this afternoon is expected to stall north and remain north of the CWA through the period. A pre-frontal trough may push into the region this evening allowing slightly drier air to filter into deep south Texas tonight. High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 70s near the coast to the low to mid 80s inland.
847 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 A cold front has been slowly moving through the forecast area this evening and as of 02z it is positioned across portions of northeast Alabama. Gusty winds out of the northwest will advect in cooler and drier air overnight before diminishing by the morning. Will begin the Thanksgiving week cool and dry, as an upper level trough axis slides east off the Atlantic coast and northwest flow remains dominant on Monday.
546 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 (This evening through Monday) Weak cold front sagging south towards I-10 late this afternoon, with a slightly cooler air mass settling into the central and northern portions of the area.
633 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 A weak coastal trough will move away from the area late tonight.
Cold front pushing through NE TX/N LA late this afternoon, expected to move through AEX later this evening, and after midnight for BPT/LCH/LCH/ARA. High pressure will settle over the area on Monday.
/issued 217 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020/ Cooler and more moist conditions has arrived for southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas as a cold front heads toward the Rio Grande River in southwest Texas tonight. The combination of forcing associated with a 700 millibar trough across the Desert Southwest and warm advection above and north of the front will increase the chances for light rain, drizzle and fog tonight and Monday morning across the region.
02Z Surface analysis places a cold front from East Tennessee back through Northern Alabama and into Central Mississippi. For the short term, a cold front and accompanying showers will exit northeast MS through late afternoon, as an upper trof over the Ozarks lifts to the lower/mid MS River valley. GOES East visible imagery showed developing breaks in the low clouds over east central AR and southern MO. Post-frontal cool season stratus often persist for days over the Midsouth, but it appears that sufficient drying will occur in the lowest 2kft for some clear spots to develop, and perhaps expand even after sunset. Fair weather will prevail Monday, under low amplitude ridging.
/issued 223 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020/ Upper level ridging offshore the southeast U. coast will move further to the east over the Atlantic through tonight as a mid level trough moves east into the eastern U. Similar to yesterday sufficient low level moisture within the low level northeast to east wind flow will support some widely scattered low topped showers across the region the remainder of the afternoon with most of the showers then ending during the evening. On Monday the low clouds and patchy fog will get scoured out by mid to late morning as a cold front moves south through the forecast area as the mid level trough moves east off the mid Atlantic coast during the day. In the wake of the front high pressure surface and aloft will build in over the eastern U.
It's beginning to feel like November weather, with cooler temperatures, drizzle across the eastern plains, and mountain snow showers (above 9500') continuing through Monday.
538 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 North winds to increase to around 10 to 15 knots this evening as high pressure rebuilds behind a cold front. /Tonight through Monday Night/ Scattered showers continue along and behind a cold front that is now located from near Jacksonville TX, to Mansfield LA, to near Farmerville LA. As expected, the showers have been on a gradual diminishing trend over the last couple of hours as an upper trough moves east of the Mississippi River and large scale forcing decreases.
804 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 Rain will taper to showers for late tonight and Monday with the passage of a cold front. No changes were needed for the eve update as a swath of rain is moving over the region in response to encroaching low pressure. The rain should taper off overnight after the passage of the cold front, though a few rain or snow showers are still possible under the upper trough. The trough is progged to dig toward the east coast on Monday with residual rain and snow showers gradually suppressed by subsidence and falling inversion levels.
340 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Skies will clear overnight into Monday as high pressure approaches the area.
Clouds will be increasing tonight as a low pressure system moves in from the Pacific.
As a weak low pressure system slowly pushes into the western Great Lakes, an area of backwash low clouds and cooler, northwesterly winds will continue to drag across these northern plains. A weak H5 ridge slides over the area tonight, providing some subsident warming and drying aloft, and helping to dissipate our low level cloudiness.
The only chance for any precipitation in the short-term will be tomorrow afternoon as a trough starts to move into the area and some leading energy moves into the southwest mountains.
403 PM MST Sun Nov 22 2020 Current Visible Satellite loop and 500mb height plot across the Front Range and intermountain west shows the ridge axis moving east over the eastern plains at this hour as high clouds are moving northeast into Carbon county.
1108 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Upper level ridging will continue shifting east over the area through tonight. At the surface, a ridge axis of high pressure will shift east of the area tonight with return southerly flow developing. Otherwise with the approach of the west coast system, south winds will increase as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to low pressure developing leeward the Rockies.
Weak cold front will edge south overnight ahead of light NE winds and eventually MVFR stratus before washing out over the area by midday.
Upper level ridge currently over Montana will move eastward as a trough approaches the region tonight and Monday. Few to scattered high clouds will give way to increasing mid and high level clouds as an upper level trough and associated Pacific cold front approach Montana Monday afternoon. /ISSUED 423 PM MST Sun Nov 22 2020/ Dry and breezy conditions developed Sunday afternoon, with otherwise fair weather under a transient upper level ridge. Moisture is limited with this trough, but the combination of dynamic forcing and orographic lift will help produce snowfall along and near the Continental Divide Monday through Monday night. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for Monday, but overall remain seasonal.
232 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 A much cooler airmass continues to flow into Middle TN thanks to northerly winds and the cold front that pushed through a few hours ago.
110 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 A weak coastal trough will move away from the area late tonight.
110 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 Scattered light rain and snow showers will be possible today behind the cold front. Frontal showers are exiting the area early this morning as the cold front shifts east. Light scattered rain and snow showers will then be possible through today with WNW'ly flow as the upper trough digs toward the east coast.
1126 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Skies will clear overnight into Monday as high pressure approaches the area.
1016 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 Ridging to our north is weakening as the parent high is lifting quickly northeastward into the northern Atlantic. Closer to home, a lower level trough, likely exacerbated by day time heating over the mainland has resulted in a zone of good confluence across our area, mainly focused over the Middle and Upper Keys and the Florida Straits. Short Term Update - As the previously mentioned frontal system quickly lifts out, a large high expanding down the central United States will bridge into the weakening departing ridge nearer Florida. Weakening and lifting out ridging to our northeast will be bridged by a continental high spreading southeastward through the central United States.
233 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 A much cooler airmass continues to flow into Middle TN thanks to northerly winds and the cold front that pushed through a few hours ago.
Not a lot of confidence in when the low clouds clear in our east at this point. As a weak low pressure system slowly pushes into the western Great Lakes, an area of backwash low clouds and cooler, northwesterly winds will continue to drag across these northern plains. A weak H5 ridge slides over the area tonight, providing some subsident warming and drying aloft, and helping to dissipate our low level cloudiness.
A cold front has been slowly moving through the forecast area this evening and as of 02z it is positioned across portions of northeast Alabama. Gusty winds out of the northwest will advect in cooler and drier air overnight before diminishing by the morning. Will begin the Thanksgiving week cool and dry, as an upper level trough axis slides east off the Atlantic coast and northwest flow remains dominant on Monday.
A cold front has exited the Mid State, leaving behind a calmer north wind and much cooler temperatures. Dry high pressure will move into the Mid State through the next 24 hours.
Light winds will prevail, and with clear skies patchy fog development is possible, mainly in the typically cooler valley locations of NE OK and NW AR.
330 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 Scattered light rain and snow showers are possible today behind the cold front. Frontal showers have exited the area with the cold front. Light, scattered rain and snow showers will develop this morning and afternoon with the crossing upper trough and lake enhancement. Sfc temperatures will be marginally supportive for mixing in snow in areas this morning, and so, outside of a dusting possible in the ridges and north of I-80, accumulation is not anticipated.
1044 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Generally clear skies and breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon across the forecast area as the upper level trough moves off towards the Great Lakes region.
336 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 As a trough axis that extends from the Great Lakes region down into the SE CONUS continues to propagate off to the NE, the attendant surface cold front is pushing southward into our region. What does it mean for our weather? A little bit cooler and drier air for tomorrow morning, and then a warmup to where we have been the last couple days. The wind direction will only favor cooler air filtering down tonight.
High pressure will weaken over western Wyoming tonight ahead of the next weak storm system arriving Monday afternoon.
The cold front is pushing through the far western portion of our area, and the associated band of showers is moving across our area as well. Could see some gusts into the 15-20kt range at KCHA after daybreak as high pressure builds in and down valley flow accelerates near KCHA. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 35 62 47 63 / 0 0 0 10 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 33 59 41 61 / 0 0 0 10 90 Oak Ridge, TN 54 33 58 43 61 / 0 0 0 10 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 29 56 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 80.
The showers and sprinkles will shift eastward ahead of the cold front. Patchy to areas of dense fog were developing across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley early this morning ahead of a cold front as well. The weak dry cold front will push into southeast Georgia this morning, and then south of the area by the late afternoon. Light northwest to northerly winds will prevail today behind the cold front, with winds shifting to the northeast tonight as high pressure shifts east. Lows tonight will be cooler behind the cold front.
1248 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 Scattered light rain and snow showers will be possible today behind the cold front. Frontal showers are exiting the area early this morning as the cold front shifts east. Light scattered rain and snow showers will then be possible through today with WNW'ly flow as the upper trough digs toward the east coast.
A cold front has exited the Mid State, leaving behind a calmer north wind and much cooler temperatures. A cold front has moved through most of Middle Tennessee and will reach CSV around 01Z.
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will bring VFR conditions with light winds through the TAF period.
Kavinsky (Issued 305 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020) Tonight through Monday night: A cold front will continue eastward over southern WI tonight and may bring some light rain/snow showers to the Fond du Lac and Sheboygan areas. Tomorrow, high pressure will then take hold allowing us to clear out for mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions.
1055 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 (This evening through Monday) Weak cold front sagging south towards I-10 late this afternoon, with a slightly cooler air mass settling into the central and northern portions of the area.
951 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Cold front continues to progress south, and should be near or just off the coast by midnight. Northerly winds will be reinforced by the front, with cooler temperatures to follow overnight. Cold front pushing through NE TX/N LA late this afternoon, expected to move through AEX later this evening, and after midnight for BPT/LCH/LCH/ARA. High pressure will settle over the area on Monday.
1033 PM MST Sun Nov 22 2020 Current Visible Satellite loop and 500mb height plot across the Front Range and intermountain west shows the ridge axis moving east over the eastern plains at this hour as high clouds are moving northeast into Carbon county.
415 AM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Alberta, with cold front stretching south across western MT and a warm front across eastern MT into western SD. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge moving east across the plains and a trough moving east-southeast across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin region. Cold front will move into western areas during the afternoon. Passing cold front tonight will bring some cooler air and breezy conditions for Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.