Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridge controls the southern half of the CONUS, including northeast Kansas where sunny skies reside. At the sfc, trough axis stretches from the Texas panhandles northeast through Iowa and Wisconsin. Similar airmass in place will lead to another afternoon of warm and humid conditions with readings in the lower 90s.
The latest satellite imagery was showing a broad upper trough positioned over SW Canada with a modest west flow across the NRN tier states which was resulting in locally breezy conditions across SE Idaho.
202 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions through the week. Building high pressure has taken control with dry conditions expected the remainder of the day.
Meanwhile, a large scale anticyclone is currently located over northern Mexico and should build northeast towards the Southeast over the coming days. 77 (Issued 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016) The building ridge and continued drying of the boundary layer should result in a dry and cooler conditions for tonight. With the more pronounced radiational cooling, overnight lows should drop nicely into the low 60s by early tomorrow morning.
High pressure aloft will bring VFR conditions thru the TAF period. This mid-level ridging will bring hot and mostly dry weather to the region this week. /Issued 357 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ An upper ridge will continue to build over the southern Plains today and will persist for much of this week.
Afternoon temps running near or a little warmer than 24 hrs ago as a virtually non-existent marine layer and a strong ridge centered over TX dominates the wx pattern into CA.
1225 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 A quick update to increase precipitation chances overnight ahead of a warm front.
331 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 The latest regional surface analysis shows low pressure continues off the Carolinas coast. RAP upper air analysis shows upper low just to the west of the surface feature but continues to sink further south and east with time. Upper low continues to shift southeast through Tue but moisture actually increases over the eastern sections of the area as circulation around both this and surface feature brings enhanced moisture back toward the local area.
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Warming trend well underway this morning as the combination of high pressure sliding off to our east and weak low pressure to our north has allowed for the reestablishment of southerly flow across our region. models continue to highlight decent 850 ridging across our area today as warm air surges northward in advance of a weak boundary that will begin sliding south into northern/central Iowa this afternoon.
Overnight through Tuesday evening should by dry as high pressure briefly noses in.
539 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 The cold front sagging across the State today should dry the region out this evening. A building ridge to our south and west will push above normal 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures into our region for the remainder of the work week. A back door cold front the west should provide some more seasonable temperatures for part of the weekend. Satellite imagery is generally clear behind (on the cold side) the low-level potential temperature boundary draped across north- central PA.
High pressure builds in tonight into Tuesday morning providing mostly clear skies and light winds. The high will exit to the east on Tuesday.
This will cause a cold front currently over central Iowa to move into northeast Missouri toward midnight. Still expect tomorrow to be dry as the upper ridge continues to build over the area.
300 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 Broad upper-level ridging will give way to very quiet weather during the next several days.
A high pressure system will allow for skies to clear this evening.
222 PM PDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Cool and unsettled weather is expected for the first part of the work week as a large area of low pressure slowly moves through the region.
209 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 The mid level anticyclone has expanded northward today and will remain mostly in place through Wed. Even though the anticyclone will remain in place heights will fall some Tue/Wed so temps will cool a few degrees. Meanwhile a deepening upper low will drop into the Great Basin Thur PM with jet energy carving the mean trof deeper on Fri.
1225 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 A cold front will continue east clearing the Northland this morning. We limited the mention to just chance at this time, but some of the high resolution models show the showers more widespread and later updates may have to increase. Weak high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies tonight with lows into the forties with a few upper thirties possible. The west coast long wave trof will be the focus for our weather the next 7 days.
With high pressure centered to our west, Tuesday night models still show a weak low over the Coastal Carolinas with the bulk of any precip and cloud cover staying on the leeward side of the Appalachians.
331 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 A flattened upper ridge over New Mexico is producing west- southwesterly flow over Colorado with unseasonably warm and dry weather under mostly clear skies. Warm advection and weak enhancement in drainage winds tonight will allow for much warmer than normal lows tonight. This will keep temperatures over the mountains and over the southern urban corridor similar or cooler than today's readings, where the northeastern plains will be warmer. An upper level ridge over Texas will bring SW flow over the state.
336 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the region tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region early Tuesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the work week. There may be a slight increase in clouds toward daybreak in the north as a weakening cold front approaches. The weakening cold front will cross the local area tomorrow. After that high pressure will dominate through the end of the period.
The arrival of a cold front from the north late in the weekend will bring the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beautiful late summer afternoon in progress with high pressure draped over the region. 18Z temps were generally in the low to mid 80s but lower dewpoints were making for a warm yet pleasant feel to the afternoon. Quiet night on tap as the high remain parked over the Ohio Valley. Cold front currently over the upper Midwest will drift E/SE into the Great Lakes and extend back into Iowa and Missouri this evening into the overnight. Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure at the surface and aloft continue to influence warm dry weather across the Ohio Valley.
The dry warmth will continue through much of the week as ridging continues at the surface and aloft. This will lead to broader diurnal ranges as nighttime mins fall off into the mid 60s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. By late week, however, the GFS is advertising that the low level flow will become more easterly and begin spreading higher dewpoints back in with PWs creeping back up above 1.
(Issued 1051 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016) High pressure centered over Arkansas will continue to move slightly east toward the Tennessee Valley this morning. Lowered dewpoints this afternoon, as drier air mixing down to the surface should allowed them to drop into the lower 60s. KTW For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail for much of the taf period in the wake of an upper trof that traversed the area this morning, with only a few clouds aoa 5kft.
1114 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 Current surface map places high pressure ridge across southern Montana into western South Dakota. High pressure builds across the for today. Flat upper ridge builds across the northern plains on Tuesday.
231 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions will provide mainly tranquil weather through the week with above normal temperatures. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs on Tuesday will reach into the lower 80s. Weakening cold front on southern fringe of high zonal flow near the US/Canada border will sink into northwest IN/lower MI later tonight, then wash out across northern IN on Tuesday.
Pressure falls over the high plains today will act to tighten the gradient and strengthen south southeast winds to moderate or breezy today. /issued 326 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): An extensive north/south mid level ridge axis from north mexico to the northern plains will shift slowly east during the period, with the northern section moving east faster than the southern part, leading to a positive tilt by the end of the short term. Light to moderate south southeast winds will continue locally as a result, with some strengthening due to pressure falls occurring over the high plains.
A warm up is headed this way after a cold morning with near freezing temperatures.
/issued 425 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ Departure of upper ridging this morning opens the door to deeper and drier SW flow. With height falls focusing to our west tonight ahead of a trough on Sunday, the dryline should easily retreat over much of the Caprock with perhaps some stratus farther east towards daybreak. There will be some cooler air filtering in behind the dryline resulting in highs about 10 degrees cooler than today for the Caprock and about 5 degrees cooler for the Rolling Plains.
Rest of the forecast looks on track with winds continuing to increase throughout the day as the cold front approaches the region. Windy day in store for much of the area as gradients tighten ahead of a cold front that will be moving through the region later tonight and Sunday. Expect more virga today than rainfall as the low levels remain quite dry. Showers linger over the northern mountains through Sunday morning with dry and cooler conditions expected elsewhere as high pressure builds in from the west.
938 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure extending from the Gulf of Mexico up to the Great Lakes early this morning will build eastward.
A short wavelength mid-level ridge will move over the mid south early in this period, promoting the dry and warm conditions. This feature will support a cold front approach to the state late, focusing scattered convection across northwest sections.
This will help conditions feel warmer today than they have been the last few days and highs will reach into the lower to mid 70s under sunny skies. /28/ Prior discussion below: Continued dry but with warmer temperatures. Our northwest winds aloft early this morning will back to near zonal tonight as mid level ridging builds in the wake of the departing large amplitude upper level trough. Together these features will result in return flow later today and a return to warmer than normal afternoon highs today in the mid to upper 70s. A few sites may dip into the lower 40s, just below normal in the east but, warmer than normal low temperatures in the lower 50s are expected in our west.
High pressure is centered from eastern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee. Some high clouds will prevent temps from falling to the freezing mark along the Tennessee River so replaced the freeze warning with a frost advisory. High pressure slides east and southerly winds develop. Expect plenty of sunshine both days with highs in the lower to mid 70s today and upper 70s on Sunday.
Water vapor satellite loop early this morning in combination with recent RUC model initializations showed a mid tropospheric ridge stretching from Mexico up into the northern and central parts of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered over western North Dakota and modest southerly flow was in place over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
1038 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Low pressure will slowly shift east today through tonight as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will crest over the region on Sunday before shifting offshore. A warm front will pass north of the region Sunday night.
937 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area today and then over the Appalachian Mountains tonight.
High pressure centered over the lower MS river valley will continue to build east becoming centered over GA later this afternoon/early evening. This ridge will keep North and Central Georgia dry through the rest of the weekend. This ridge will also allow daytime highs to rebound today and Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s today.
958 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure at sfc and aloft has shifted to the east this morning resulting in strong southerly winds of 10 to 20 kts across the Arklatex. Partly cloudy skies today with temperatures in the lower 80s south of I-20, while areas north of I-20 will be in the upper 70s. The winds will be a little brisk during the afternoon especially, as return flow off the Gulf gusts up a bit with peak heating as cooler high pressure exits stage right.
Showers will linger today as a weak upper trough moves over the area.
522 AM MDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Upper ridging continues its eastward track across the central CONUS with southwest flow aloft developing across the CWA during the overnight hours. ahead of an approaching upper trough over the west coast. This will result in a large range of max temps today with highs in the low 60s over northeast WY to the low 80s over far south central SD. The trough is still progged to cut off from the main flow tonight into Sunday as it crosses the Great Basin into WY. With the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
Temperatures will be a several degrees warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees below normal. Looks for highs mainly in the lower 70s.
Still cannot rule out a few showers this afternoon during the cold front passage but many locations will remain dry. Southwest winds already increasing across the CWA early this morning as a trough enters the far northwest Great Basin. This trough will move through the Great Basin today and tonight with windy conditions over much of the area. Most of the colder air aloft will remain north of Arizona, with only a slight chance of showers expected during a weak cold front passage later this afternoon. Cool temperatures will remain on Sunday behind the cold front, with less wind. Strong southwest winds, isolated showers, and increasing humidity will develop today as a cold front crosses the district. Expect cooler temperatures and lighter west to northwest winds on Sunday.
914 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure for the weekend.
With the airmass moderating, highs this afternoon and lows tonight to be a handful of degrees warmer than the previous day.
959 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure in the southeastern states will build toward the area through tonight and move offshore on Sunday.
After a chilly start early this morning with temperatures in the 40s and 50s full April sunshine will allow temperatures to rebound quickly with readings climbing into the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon. Winds and seas will continue to diminish and subside over the Gulf waters the rest of today as high pressure to our west builds slowly east with north winds veering into the northeast, except backing to the northwest right along the coast during the afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure will result in a period of dry weather for Sunday into early this upcoming week with temperatures climbing to above normal levels.
724 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Aviation Today will be sunny and warmer with highs around 60.
With current dew points in the mid 30's, light surface winds and clear skies tonight, some areas should be able to see temperatures reach the low 40's prior to sunrise. Throughout the day, a mid-level ridge axis over the central CONUS continues its slow drift eastward. Along the coast, temps should remain near the low 70's owing to southerly winds over cool near shore waters from the daily sea-breeze.
While skies are clearing behind the low, high clouds remain over the eastern CWA, thus have increase cloud cover through the afternoon. Fire weather concerns remain today as the high clouds currently overhead shift to the east. The main concerns fire wise will be the low rh values falling to 20-25 percent near and west of the MO River 18Z-00Z, and the strongest winds near and just behind the passing cold front. The timing of the strongest winds doesn't overlap with the lowest humidity values. So while grassland fire danger index values will rise into the high to very high levels, winds will not be as strong and widespread as yesterday. Dry weather will prevail until closer to 00Z Sunday, as the 500mb ridge that had been overhead slides to the Great Lakes Region.
Road sensors indicate road temperatures will lower to below freezing later this afternoon and most certainly this evening. Road temperatures will lower to below freezing allowing snow to stick on roads. Scattered snow showers will continue through Sunday as a weak ridge develops.
The winds will be a little brisk during the afternoon especially, as return flow off the Gulf gusts up a bit with peak heating as cooler high pressure exits stage right.
Frost/freeze headlines have been cleared as temps are above freezing everywhere and into the 40s across a good chunk of the area. Kentucky Mesonet shows a few of the typical cool spots around and just below freezing at this hour, however most other spots are in the mid to upper 30s. In addition, there is a corridor of temps still in the lower 40s roughly along and just east of I-65. Temps should still be able to find their way solidly into the 30s to the point where patchy/areas of frost are possible, and with some areas at and just below freezing will keep the headlines as is. Overnight lows will be milder tonight, but still in the low to mid 40s in most spots.
A long wave trough continues it's eastward progression this evening generating scattered to widespread showers across southern Oregon and northern California.
Mid level flow transitioning to the sw as upper ridge shifts east. As it does it will drag a weak cold front across the region. As western trough approaches and upper low organizes Model guidance continues to shift the main precipitation field a bit farther south with high pressure ridging exerting more influence across the fa.
Highs have been bumped up a tad based on latest observation and short-term guidance this morning, with most folks rising into the lower 70s this afternoon.
Road sensors indicate road temperatures will lower to below freezing later this afternoon and most certainly this evening. Road temperatures will lower to below freezing, allowing snow to stick on roads. Scattered snow showers will continue through Sunday as a weak ridge develops.
With the cold front to the east, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday but still about 10 degrees above normal for early April. Upper trough moves inland from the Pacific today. This trough moves across Montana and Wyoming tonight and Sunday. A cold front will drop south across the forecast area tonight. For tonight, look for a good chance of rain over the southwest part of the forecast area while the low level dry air will limit precipitation chances over the northeast part of the area. A NW/SE oriented upper trough remains over SE and Central Montana Sunday Night although moisture will gradually diminish as the trough splits with the southern branch moving to the east and the northern branch lingering over the state.
the key for strong to severe storms will be tied to whether the dry line will be able to surge ahead of the approaching cold front.
1018 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Temperatures will average below normal today as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
100 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area today and then over the Appalachian Mountains tonight.
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ With just a little bit of high clouds around, early morning temperatures range from the lower 50s inland to the upper 60s/around 70 at the coast.
A cold front will move into northwest OK Sunday evening and be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into southeast Oklahoma.
By daybreak, many spots will be in the lower 30s with frost. After a chilly start, sunshine will warm things up quickly today, with highs in the lower 70s, except 60s Plateau.
High pressure ridge extended from Lower MI into the Deep South and was providing southerly winds on the return flow. This was keeping temperatures warmer than last night with 3 am readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
High pressure ridging sliding through the area today is bringing clear skies and relatively light winds.
(Today and Tonight) Early this morning, water vapor imagery and model height fields show a vort max entering our coastal waters in the base of a trough that is centered to our north. We may need to issue a headline for frost or potential freezing conditions later this morning or with the afternoon forecast package.
703 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area today and then over the Appalachian Mountains tonight.
As a cold front associated with that short- wave trough passes through the region Sunday evening, a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible along that front; however, there are still several caveats that make convective initiation conditional and overall confidence for storms low.
1150 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Pressure gradient continued to tighten across the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley as High pressure at the surface has shifted well east of our terminal airspace.
Southwest winds already increasing across the CWA early this morning as a trough enters the far northwest Great Basin. This trough will move through the Great Basin today and tonight with windy conditions over much of the area. Most of the colder air aloft will remain north of Arizona, with only a slight chance of showers expected during a weak cold front passage later this afternoon. Cool temperatures will remain on Sunday behind the cold front, with less wind. Strong southwest winds, isolated showers and increasing humidity will develop today as a cold front crosses the district. Expect cooler temperatures and lighter west to northwest winds on Sunday.
Heading into Sunday the upper ridge will build east of the area, putting our region in southwest flow aloft, as a storm system develops over the northern High Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will settle over western Iowa, which will really crank up the pressure gradient over our region.
Skies were mostly cloudy this morning as a cold front works through the region. Mix of rain and snow in the high terrain. Cold frontal passage today, currently sitting along the Oregon-Idaho border and moving through Idaho this afternoon. A cold front will also move across SE Oregon this morning and SW Idaho this afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs generally in the 40s to lower 50s. Showers will decrease as an upper trough shifts to our east. An upper ridge will provide the region with drier conditions and lighter winds on Sunday.
the wind shift puts the trough over NE Colorado. blocked from moving east due to strong H5 ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Going into today as a result of trough not pushing eastward. The cloud cover accompanying the trough could inhibit winds mixing from daytime heating. main issue thru the period will be the approach/passage of a cold front through the CWA. The trough/front over NE Colorado does get pushed eastward in tandem with an upper trough that pushes into the Central Rockies overnight. The upper trough does pass north of the CWA on Sunday. and locales east of there in the lower to mid 70s.
Mid and upper levels progged to remain very dry within a northwest flow today between the exiting east coast trof and plains ridge, with flow trending west moving through Sunday as aforementioned ridge advances over and east of the region.