Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, a backdoor cold front will progress through the TN Valley this afternoon with a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. The weak cold front will push through the TN Valley early tomorrow morning, giving us one more muggy night tonight as lows only reach the low 70s. Warm temperatures continue tomorrow as highs reach the low 90s, potentially mid 90s, in the afternoon underneath clear skies. The good news is that dew points will drop from the mid 70s tomorrow morning down to the low to mid 60s tomorrow night.
A weak cold front will approach from the north today and serve as a focus/lifting mechanism for additional convection late this morning into the afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will advect in behind the front overnight, which will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 60s by tomorrow morning.
A cold front will move into SE GA this afternoon, then nearly stationary near the GA/FL line through Tonight. The area will also be in the base of an 500mb trough through Tonight. On Sunday, the cold front will remain across the region with the 500mb trough in place. For Monday, the upper trough will remain over the region, with the combination of diurnal heating and upper support leading to scattered to numerous storms. The best chance will be across NE FL, closer to the dissipating cold frontal zone.
349 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 High pressure will pass south of the region today.
An upper trough will remain over the area through tonight with light northerly upper level flow. With the presence of the weak upper trough and an unstable airmass this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Discussion: Today high pressure will be building in from the west in the mid levels and at the surface as the ridge over the central U. Later today a frontal boundary will continue to move southeastward on the eastern edge of the ridge and push into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Forecast soundings indicate that moisture in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere will be somewhat limited, and the drier air and high pressure near the surface will likely act to suppress any convection that tries to initiate today under the sunnier skies.
1022 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Broad upper ridge is over the northern Plains with deep trof off the Pacific coast. However, light winds around the Black Hills are southeast along the east side, so temperatures in the Rapid City area have been cooler. Hot and mainly dry conditions will prevail for the first part of the week as upper ridge rebounds. Another wave cresting the ridge Monday evening could produce storms over the SD plains.
1038 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Much quieter weather today as high pressure and a drier airmass settles over the region. The upper ridge will amplify over the western states allowing daytime temperatures to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s through at least midweek.
1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 High pressure over west Texas will keep quiet weather over Arkansas through the period. Tonight Through Monday Skies were mostly sunny acrs the FA this aftn, with mid aftn temps in the lower and mid 90s. High pressure aloft rmnd centered to the W, with AR on the Ern periphery of the rdg axis.
429 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move east today bring showers and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic area.
Through the morning, the surface front will slide southeast with high pressure building in its wake. Highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. Low temperatures were nudged below NBM guidance with this forecast, to the low to mid 50s.
341 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Expect a quiet start to the day today with surface ridging centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley nosing into the area. Troughing moves in across the NE and GL region behind a shrtwv on Sunday evening as deep troughing moves off the PacNW. Between these two features, anomalous ridging buildings over the inter mtn west, which leaves the UP in predominately NW flow through the week.
Upper level ridging will continue to amplify near and west of the region today, with high temperatures climbing back into the lower to mid 90s across the forecast area. Plus, model soundings show fairly dry air in the low levels, so may be tough to get any rain to reach the ground.
Surface analysis this evening places a cold front from Southern Illinois back through Southern Missouri and into Oklahoma. These thunderstorms dissipated in the past couple of hours across the Mid-South and were triggered mostly by convective temperatures being reached while the 00Z upper air analysis indicated the Lower Mississippi Valley being on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge axis. The aforementioned cold front over Southern Missouri is anticipated to drop into the Mid-South overnight into Sunday morning. Sunday may be a little cooler than today, but still hot with heat indices nearing 100. By Monday, northwest flow will increase as an upper ridge over the Plains moves towards the four corners.
/issued 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/ H5 weakness is expected to rotate around the core of the high pressure center located across SERN NM this afternoon and evening. The highest risk of seeing storms will be the southwestern panhandle then extending eastward into the north central counties as the overnight hours progress. However, an embedded disturbance is progged to rotate around the high and move over far western Oklahoma, potentially enhancing thunderstorm potential. An upper high is expected to remain centered over the Four Corners region through much of the week, and the upper flow will become northeasterly. This would tend to be unfavorable for precipitation to move over the area unless weaknesses form within the ridge.
140 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Upper low lifting northward through Manitoba will continue to push a weak cold front through the east half of Upper Mi late this afternoon and evening. Tonight, surface ridging over the Midwest will build into the Upper Lakes with a clear and seasonable night expected. Troughing moves in across the NE and GL region behind a shrtwv on Sunday evening as deep troughing moves off the PacNW. Between these two features, anomalous ridging buildings over the inter mtn west, which leaves the UP in predominately NW flow through the week.
308 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
1051 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Another muggy evening is expected with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s area wide and temps hanging around 85 to 90 near sunset. Late tonight into the early morning hours a few showers and thunderstorms may try to move off the high plains into western OK and north TX. Hot and muggy conditions will continue Sunday under the influence of the subtropical ridge axis. A remnant vort max from the overnight convection rotating around the eastern fringe of the ridge axis and a cold pocket aloft could result in a few diurnal thunderstorms developing within an instability axis (uncapped for the most part) across western OK and north TX late tomorrow afternoon thru Sunday evening.
Have tweaked overnight lows to better account for these cooler temperatures, with lows in the upper 60s along and east of I-65 and lower 70s over NW AL. On Monday, upr level ridging will move southward across the region during the morning before deep northerly again returns to the area. Ahead of an impending upr trough, warm low-lvl temps will ensure another hot day, but dew point temperatures will gradually begin to fall, with temperatures feeling a little cooler than today or Sunday.
Sctd SHRA/TSRA expected to develop during the day Sunday as ridging aloft begins to break down. For Sunday, the mid to upper level high expected to retreat a bit westward, with a mid to upper level trough of low pressure approaching from the east. The higher chances of showers and thunderstorms expected to shift southward across the coastal waters for Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Scattered showers and storms will develop late this afternoon and continue into the evening mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of a weak cold front. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected across northeast MO tonight and the rest of the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. The most noticeable change Sunday and Sunday night will be the lowering surface dew points making it feel much more comfortable. GKS A reinforcing cold front will drop southward through our area Monday into Monday night as an upper level trough moves through the Great Lakes region with northwesterly upper level flow over our region.
The upper level ridge will remain to the northwest of south Texas through Monday with a northeast flow aloft over the region. The higher moisture will continue to drift into the northern coastal plains from the northeast on Monday. Models depict a short wave trough or possibly another MCV moving down the coast from southeast Texas into the Mid-coast region.
214 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak cold front will pass across the region late tonight into Sunday. A second cold front will move through Monday afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier air will then work in for mid week. Otherwise, the weak cold front will move southeast into our area overnight. Some of the higher res CAMs are showing some isolated activity lingering with the front overnight so will maintain some lower end pops across much of the area tonight. In the wake of the front, some ridging will work in which will allow skies to clear. Winds shift from the west to the northwest by Monday evening behind the front bringing cooler and drier air to the region.
1043 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A broad area of high pressure building across the Upper to Mid Mississippi River Valley over the weekend will lead to mainly sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures compared to the long stretch of hot and humid weather experienced for much of early June. Lows in the 50s to near 60 overnight tonight with dew points in the mid 40s to near 50 - dry and comfortable enough to open up the windows! On Sunday as the area of high pressure builds southward, low level flow becomes westerly with some warmer air advecting in from the west. This will lead to highs in the low 90s under mainly sunny skies.
High pressure still in control of the weather across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. a cold front lays across western Montana to central Idaho to northwestern Nevada. That surface front/trough moves into our northern zones Sunday afternoon. Sunday and Monday bring chances for showers and thunderstorms across areas of southeast Wyoming east of the Laramie Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle as the upper-level ridge weakens and winds turn southeast, advecting enough moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to raise PWATs to 0.
Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen/amplify across the Rockies and adjacent plains into Canada through the first half of the week. This ridging will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s through the week. In the lower levels, flow is very weak with a broad area of high pressure prevailing across the middle to eastern portions of the country. The placement of this high is keeping southerly flow and the resultant moisture advection northward, suppressed. As the upper ridge is flattening out, it will allow for more pronounced northwest flow to develop over the area with a stronger upper jet nosing southward.
214 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge across much of the western CONUS with convective complex across the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, weak surface trof resides across the central and western Dakotas into eastern Wyoming. Another very warm day is on tap for the area, as the upper ridge continues to slowly build across the southwest CONUS. Upper ridge continues to build over the western CONUS on Monday, with temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): As has been the case over the past several days, a mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
The upper level flow becomes more northerly on Sunday as the upper ridge to the west expands eastward. Hot temps expected again on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows remain very muggy, in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building slowly northward across New Mexico and the South Plains of west Texas into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting eastward across Nebraska and northern Kansas. More than sufficient instability within a band of steep low/mid level lapse rates will set the stage for thunderstorm development late this afternoon/early evening in southeast Colorado and extreme northeast New Mexico as the H5 vort maxima crest the aforementioned ridge axis. As for temperatures, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will support a milder air mass across the high plains tonight, not to mention moisture advection holding surface dewpoints mainly in the 60s(F). Warmer temperatures can be expected Sunday with afternoon highs pushing the lower 90s(F).
Otherwise, with the influence of the upper ridge shifting west, there will be a better opportunity for sctd SHRA/TSRA to develop during the day. However, expect the best potential will be acrs the eastern half of the area given better moisture and proximity to southward-moving disturbances between the ridging to the west and a trough to the east. Sctd SHRA/TSRA expected to develop during the day Sunday as ridging aloft begins to break down. For Sunday, the mid to upper level high expected to retreat a bit westward, with a mid to upper level trough of low pressure approaching from the east. The higher chances of showers and thunderstorms expected to shift southward across the coastal waters for Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday with a crossing cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected tonight under mid level ridging. A trough centered near Hudson Bay, Canada will propagate sely through the Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday. Showers/storms should end Sunday evening after surface cold frontal passage. The same low pressure looks to dive farther south on Monday afternoon and with it, jet support, and vorticity advection will allow for the chance for thunderstorms.
A stronger upper level trough dives SE from the Great lakes Sunday night/Monday continuing the chc for showers and perhaps a few low-topped TSRA as the freezing layer dips to just under 10 KFT across the northern half of the state Monday afternoon and evening.
By Monday morning we will see a more traditional frontal boundary just to our north as the trough continues to exit the area. At the same we will see a pre-frontal trough likely develop and be the focus for showers and storms during the afternoon and into the evening at least until the frontal boundary itself can work in during the evening and into the overnight hours.
1040 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 High pressure will slowly drift east tonight and allow southerly flow to develop. This less hot air leaks southward through the day on Monday and should lead towards highs about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than Sunday.
Lightning data showing some strike activity with this trough and surface observations show falling pressures in nern ND. and many of the CAMS are overestimating the low- level dewpoints with the NSSL WRF and FV3 the most aggressive with 65F in central WI by 00Z. With west/northwest flow and drier soils, there is no reason dewpoints should be this high. Would think gusty/damaging wind is about the most likely threat based on lapse rates in the low-levels and DCAPEs in the 1200-1500 range.
Highs will be a couple degrees warmer with max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the entire area. With the upper ridge nudging slightly west Monday, weakness in the northerly flow aloft could bring some slightly better chances for afternoon showers for our eastern counties.
Late day convective chances will focus within a moderate to strong instability axis across the high Plains.
KTRI and KTYS have the best chance to see fog as they're dew point depressions are the lowest as of right now. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 71 92 69 87 / 30 30 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 69 89 66 83 / 30 20 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 68 90 66 83 / 30 30 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 87 62 81 / 30 30 10 10 10.
1038 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A strong upper ridge will build across the Rockies over the next 24 hours. Models show a weak wave pulling across eastern Idaho Sunday afternoon and evening, but the building ridge, limited moisture and subsidence from the ridge should prevent any convection. Thus no precipitation through the short-term with unseasonable hot temperatures with Sunday being a few degrees warmer than what occurs this afternoon.
431 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Weak high pressure over the area this morning, will slide into the northern Atlantic during today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the highest chances near TLH and ECP. An upper trough will remain over the area through tonight with light northerly upper level flow. With the presence of the weak upper trough and an unstable airmass this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
735 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
1047 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Broadly cyclonic low-level flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a weakened ridge axis over the distant Straits of Florida and Cuba, are maintaining a vigorous convergence zone over the Straits of Florida. Aloft, there is diffluence near the Cay Sal Bank, ridging over the Western Caribbean, the Yucatan, and the Bay of Campeche, and broadly cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf and Florida. The Florida Keys are within a weakly inhibited, moderately unstable environment, although deep layer moisture is lacking somewhat (see dewpoint depressions in the lower troposphere on the 12Z KKEY RAOB). Given the lowest value from the ECM guidance is 38%, we will hold at 50%.
Today Through Monday Night The upper level high pressure system centered over west Texas continues to expand. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas through Monday night. A cold front has stalled across northern Arkansas and isolated thunderstorms developed early this morning near this front.
710 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Aviation - Warm and less humid today, showers/storms tonight - Pleasant and mostly dry next few days - Likely warmer and a chance of precipitation late week -- Warm and less humid today, showers/storms tonight -- A few lingering areas of fog or low clouds this morning will quickly mix out. While it will be warmer than normal again today, it will be noticeably less humid as dew points drop into the 50s and perhaps upper 40s. An upper level trough digging into the region from the northwest tonight will aid the development of showers and perhaps thunderstorms, as moisture around 10,000 feet / 700 mb may have just enough potential instability for convection and increased rainfall rates.
519 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 While synoptically there is still a strong ridge sitting over northwest Wyoming, keeping temperatures 10+ degrees above normal for this time of year and many areas very dry, a surface frontal boundary will develop in southeast Wyoming late Sunday afternoon, providing the region with ample instability to jump start afternoon convection. Daytime heating will still be strong with the upper-level ridge holding strong over northwest Wyoming, so the panhandle is still conducive to thunderstorms, but confidence is lower for Monday's convection.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through much of the upcoming week. This high pressure will become centered over the four corners region by the middle of the week, allowing mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of isolated mainly dry thunderstorms. The high pressure aloft responsible for this prolong period of dangerous heat will become centered near the four corners by the middle of the week. Moisture pooled well south of the region will advance northward into AZ as the upper high shifts over the four corners region.
Highs will continue in the lower/mid 90s range with lows generally in the mid 70s.
/issued 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): As has been the case over the past several days, a mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
A very warm and humid day is in store across the region as temperatures reach the lower 90s during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect heat indices to average around 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, across the Midsouth.
532 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing cold front.
409 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 While synoptically there is still a strong ridge sitting over northwest Wyoming, keeping temperatures 10+ degrees above normal for this time of year and many areas very dry, a surface frontal boundary will develop in southeast Wyoming late Sunday afternoon, providing the region with ample instability to jump start afternoon convection. Daytime heating will still be strong with the upper-level ridge holding strong over northwest Wyoming, so the panhandle is still conducive to thunderstorms, but confidence is lower for Monday's convection.
Increasing onshore gradients expected today as troughing approaches the coast. Ensembles and clusters favor triple digit heat by mid-week given the westward expansion of a strong ridge centered over the Four Corners.
643 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move east today bring showers and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic area.
Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen/amplify across the Rockies and adjacent plains into Canada through the first half of the week. This ridging will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s through the week. In the lower levels, flow is very weak with a broad area of high pressure prevailing across the middle to eastern portions of the country. The placement of this high is keeping southerly flow and the resultant moisture advection northward, suppressed. As the upper ridge is flattening out, it will allow for more pronounced northwest flow to develop over the area with a stronger upper jet nosing southward. Winds will be light through the forecast with high pressure over the area.
421 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge across much of the western CONUS with convective complex across the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, weak surface trof resides across the central and western Dakotas into eastern Wyoming. Another very warm day is on tap for the area, as the upper ridge continues to slowly build across the southwest CONUS. Upper ridge continues to build over the western CONUS on Monday, with temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the area.
451 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 A weak trough will set up from southwest to northeast across the state today. There could be a few showers or thunderstorms across the southern tier of the forecast area associated with the trough through tonight. High pressure will also build back in at the sfc this evening. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to persist under the upper ridge through the short term with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. The main initial focus in the long range will be on the building heat early in the period followed by the potential for a bit a cooler trend toward the end of the week.