Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Generally south of I-90, warmer air is forecast to spread into the area today.
1009 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 A cold front will stall to the south today. An area of low pressure on the front will move northeast across eastern NC through this evening, followed by high pressure passing through Sunday.
Frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across the area, roughly around the Highway 59 corridor with dew points at or below 60 to the north and in the mid to upper 60s to the south. Much of the area should be cooler tonight, but temperatures will again be tricky as some models indicate the frontal boundary possibly edging off the coast in/around the Galveston Bay area.
Sat night, the trough off the coast of SoCal/Baja is forecast to open and begin moving east, south of a large-scale trough dropping out of the PacNW. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will induce westerly flow over the SW CONUS, sharpening up a weak dryline mid-CWA Sunday.
/Issued 459 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ Temperatures will be warming up into the 60s today as westerly flow and warmer air moves over the Panhandles.
High pressure will move in quickly with lows in the 30s. High pressure will be in control Sunday morning, then the high will slide east in the afternoon allowing some return moisture to develop.
608 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 Low pressure, located over the southern Mississippi Valley early this morning, will track northeast to the Mid Atlantic coast by this evening.
However, the leading question continues to be just how far north and east do the higher snowfall totals make it into the CWA with the approaching Arctic air mass to the north? Right now, a storm total of 5 to 8 inches through Sunday morning in SW Phillips and Petroleum County within a 24 hour period combined with blowing snow conditions is expected to produce enough impacts to travel and area activities that a Winter Storm Warning appears appropriate.
This low level flow will enhance isentropic lift along the coast, and will keep low stratus and fog over the Atlantic waters a bit longer, and will extend the dense fog advisory through noon.
Strong westerly flow will tap into Pacific moisture as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. Snow will develop this morning across the north, including the higher terrain of Baker County and in the mountains of West Central Idaho. Winds will also increase ahead of a cold front late this afternoon and evening - strongest on the ridges. The cold front will move southward across the area tonight. Snow showers are expected across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho on Sunday as an upper trough strengthens over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer ahead of the front today, then 5-15 degrees colder on Sunday.
700 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 A cold front will stall to the south today. An area of low pressure on the front will move northeast across eastern NC through this evening, followed by high pressure passing through Sunday.
526 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 A weak low pressure system and broad upper level trough will cross the region this morning. A stronger low pressure system will cross South Dakota later tonight through Sunday. Models soundings still support the possibility of freezing drizzle with minor ice accumulations possible. The latest models continue to advertise the development of a positive tilt mid level trof over the western conus, extending northeast into the Western High Plains.
Precipitation will end across eastern sections by mid morning as the short wave trough axis swings through the area. Lows tonight will be mainly in the mid and upper 40s, with a few readings in the lower 50s along the I-10 corridor.
Another warm day is in store with temperatures this afternoon reaching into the low 80s across inland areas away from the immediate coast.
South of the front, temperatures are in the low to mid 20s.
This has brought an increase in winds to the low and mid levels with some decent warm air advection in the 850mb to 750mb layer. A fast moving a weak high pressure will push through during the evening with strong southerly flow developing through the overnight hours. This is in response to deepening low pressure to the west as a strong jet develops to the north.
905 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 High pressure over the region will result in a pleasant winter day. Quick moving low pressure will move south and east of New England Tonight and early Sunday, bringing the potential for snow.
1021 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 High pressure at the surface and aloft is keeping warm and moist conditions in place across the area. Light S/SE winds becoming SW/W in the afternoons as high pressure ridges across the waters for the next several days.
This feature will not move much through the day so Sunday may feel like a more traditional spring day across the area with the moisture in place and temps in the low 70s.
Well to the SE of the trough a broad moisture axis covered most of OK, and had crossed the OK/KS border. NW flow would advect much warmer & drier air across KS which would elevate the grassland fire danger across all of central & most of south-central KS where it'll reach the "Very High" category. Sunday night-Mon night: This 2nd NE-SW oriented lower-deck trough will push into KS Sun night & would cause markedly increasing warm, moist advection, especially across southeast KS. It'll be a wet start to the work-week as the mid-upper trof will continue to make slow eastward progress. An extreme grassland fire danger is very possible in most of central KS on Sun as winds become southwesterly & increase from 25 to 35 mph, with gusts around 35 mph and spread much warmer & drier air into KS.
All of this spells a wet and dreary Saturday afternoon in Middle TN and while we may see a brief respite from the rain during the day on Sunday (and warmer temperatures because of the lack of rain), more rain will return as soon as tomorrow evening.
649 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 An area of low pressure will move just southeast of the region today and an upper level disturbance will move across the area later today bringing the potential for precipitation. High pressure will allow for dry conditions on Sunday. An area of low pressure will move just to the southeast of the region today. High pressure will then work into the region for the day on Sunday. WAA on Sunday and plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions across the Rio Grande valley through 15Z before the low clouds/fog lift and burn off as mixing increases with diurnal heating. Moisture will pool along the front today and tonight before the front retreats as a warm front Sunday.
532 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb broad trough over the central U. with a ridge off the west coast. Generally have 2-5 inches of wet 10:1 ratio snow Mon and Mon evening, with lesser amounts under 2 inches near Lake Michigan where some light freezing rain is possible.
High pressure shifts eastward overnight, with increasing southerly winds through daybreak Sunday. Winds begin to relax in the afternoon as a cold front beings to move into the area.
Ahead of the trough in an area of warm air advection, precipitation has developed across northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. There is some drier air in the low levels, but there is enough lift to over come the dry air fairly quickly. However, warmer temperatures will spread north through the morning in the warm air advection, so the snow will mix/change right back to rain. Minor snow accumulations will be possible on mainly grassy and elevated surfaces, but due to temperatures around freezing along with a warm ground, no impacts are expected. Lows tonight will drop into the low to middle 30s. Southerly winds will increase on Sunday ushering in warmer temperatures as highs top out in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
719 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 High pressure over the region will result in a pleasant winter day. Quick moving low pressure will move south and east of New England Tonight and early Sunday, bringing the potential for snow.
Lee side trough development Sunday will contribute to increasing onshore flow/dissipation of the frontal bounday Sunday afternoon. NGOFS output/buoys depict cooler SST values than suggested by SPoRT over the bays/nearshore coastal waters.
Increasing southerly flow on the back side of the ridge axis tonight will help hold low temperatures in the upper 20s/low 30s overnight. Even warmer weather is still on track for Sunday as that frontal boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front and flow aloft transitions southwest ahead of a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. As warm as it sounds, keep in mind the warmer air will be accompanied gusty southerly winds in a tight pressure gradient.
1006 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 An area of low pressure will move just southeast of the region today while an upper level disturbance moves toward the Great Lakes. High pressure will allow for dry conditions on Sunday. High pressure will then work into the region for the day on Sunday. WAA on Sunday and plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
Swly winds and warm advection will continue until the cold front passes from the middle to late afternoon. Sfc temps will warm into the lower to middle 30s ahead of the snow, with little to no impact with the minor snow accum.
Mid-level forcing associated with the trough is generating light snow upstream over South Dakota, and this will progress across northern Iowa later this morning.
An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to eastern Kentucky today, as it makes it way across the Tennessee valley. The snow should be gone by around noon today, as temperatures will have warmed well above freezing by then. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal today, with highs in the low to mid 40s on tap across the area. They all depict a semi-static ridge through the southeast holding broad and deep southwest flow in place over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This ridge will shift a bit through the seven day forecast but its influence will be dominant for the weather across Kentucky.
The low clouds will persist into late morning across the north, but should dissipate before noon and then it will be a warm and dry day with ridge aloft nearby. Max temps will again reach the lower-mid 80s.
One more day of dry weather before a strong cold front moves into the region late tonight and Sunday bringing snow, gusty winds, and much colder temperatures.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with a developing low in southeast Colorado. The rain/snow mix should make it as far north as the highway 30 corridor during the afternoon. The best chances for precipitation are east of the Mississippi where the forcing maximizes as warmer air flows in from the south. As for snowfall amounts, areas along and south of the highway 30 corridor will see a dusting of accumulation at best. North of the highway 30 corridor accumulations will range from a dusting to less than an inch. Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as the next high pressure moves through the Midwest.
617 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 Stationary boundary draped over the city this morning may move north a touch as a warm front in response to a reinforcing cool front moving into our northern-most counties latter this morning. Frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across the area, roughly around the Highway 59 corridor with dew points at or below 60 to the north and in the mid to upper 60s to the south. Much of the area should be cooler tonight, but temperatures will again be tricky as some models indicate the frontal boundary possibly edging off the coast in/around the Galveston Bay area.
Wind gusts in the higher elevations have been in the 20-30 mph range, and there will be a potential for that to increase in the afternoon.
1036 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a persistent deep layer mean anticyclone dominating large-scale atmospheric flows across the entire region.
Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs.
Somewhat diffuse trough/windshift was noted from NE Iowa into NE Lower Michigan as of 6Z. Little in the way of impacts will be seen behind the front with dewpoints remaining well into the 60s to near 70 and clearing skies to allow for increase in instability as main upper low and associated lobe of energy rotate through late this afternoon. Once the upper level energy departs by late evening, cooler and less humid conditions begin to settle in overnight. High pressure will drift across the region through Weds bringing cooler and less humid conditions to start.
Rainfall estimates are up to around 2 inches in Meade and Breckinridge counties in KY. 2 PWATs is oriented along the low-level boundary. Steady mid and upper level height falls have set in and will continue today as a synoptic scale trough swings southeast over the Great Lakes. Modest flow aloft will finally become cyclonic as the upper ridge continues to establish itself over the Four Corners. The strong convection over the northern CWA has pushed out an outflow boundary, which was moving south through Bullitt, Hardin, Meade, and Breckinridge counties, extending back northwest into Perry Co, IN.
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Steady mid and upper level height falls have set in and will continue today as a synoptic scale trough swings southeast over the Great Lakes. Modest flow aloft will finally become cyclonic as the upper ridge continues to establish itself over the Four Corners. The strong convection over the northern CWA has pushed out an outflow boundary, which was moving south through Bullitt, Hardin, Meade, and Breckinridge counties, extending back northwest into Perry Co, IN.
Additional dry thunderstorms are possible once more, particularly along mountain ridges.
Main area of showers and some thunder is just ahead of the low in region of stronger moisture flux convergence but otherwise there is only isold shra back to the upper trough center over northeast MN. Farther west and closer to Lk Superior increasing onshore flow and cold air advection behind the low will result in temps staying in the 60s. Winds should gradually come down later tonight as high pressure builds in. Overall, precipitation chances later this week look to be confined to the middle of the week as a cold front pushes across the area. Otherwise, high pressure will remain across the area and fair weather will prevail.
At the surface, a meso-high pressure system was noted over southeast KS associated with the ongoing convection. The synoptic pattern shows high pressure to the northwest over the northern high plains. As for temps, models show the thermal ridge has broken down, but there is not a lot of cold air advection to speak of. So think air temps will be cooler than the last several days, but the humidity could remain high enough to generate heat indices around 100 for parts of northeast and east central KS.
The upper high over the western U. With the upper high driving in slightly cooler air from the north and east, temperatures should be a little cooler today, near or possibly a little below average.
253 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather until late tonight. Low pressure moves in from the west on Monday and tracks south of the area.
Trough located across WI through northern NE. 1018mb anticyclone over ND bringing mostly clear skies tonight save for some CI floating by. Monday, upper ridge builds into the northern Plains with thermal ridge peaking over the CWA ahead of upper trough stretching from SK into the northern Rockies. Pretty hot ahead of front with readings in the low 100s.
A breezy cold front will arrive Sunday night, but will have only a mild impact on temperatures on Monday. An increasing chance of thunderstorms will occur by mid-week and the remainder of the work week will be cooler and breezy. Forecast still on track for the dry cold front passage tomorrow, which will lead to breezy conditions and low relative humidity values and the resident fire weather concerns. Cote' 06Z TAFS: High pressure will provide dry, VFR conditions at TAF sites. Light winds will prevail tonight/early Sunday but the approach of a dry cold front will lead to increased winds toward midday to afternoon Sunday.
356 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Broad high pressure ridge aloft continues to build over much of the Great Basin resulting in a west to northwest flow aloft over Colorado.
312 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Today's temperature forecast is quite challenging as there are several competing elements that if one is weaker than the other or vice versa then temperatures could be much warmer, or not as a bad as it has been. Second, where the cloud cover moves out earlier in the day, likely the northern half of the forecast area, highs should climb into the low to middle 90s. But, a secondary cold front will be moving into the area from the north and may get into northern MO before peak heating, limiting their potential warm up. Should this slow down then the northern counties will be in the lower to perhaps middle 90s.
/issued 341 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/ The outflow boundary in northern Oklahoma along with a weak trough to the northeast of Oklahoma will provide a focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development today and Monday. The boundary will likely affect the northern half of Oklahoma today, although a few storms could form most anywhere given the slight cooling aloft with the upper trough in the Midwest. On Monday, the influence of the upper trough will still be to the northeast of Oklahoma providing a similar, favorable atmosphere along with the fading, but lingering surface boundary. Beyond Monday, the upper ridge builds over Oklahoma once again bringing very high temperatures and humidity once again during mid-week.
This brings a sharp rise in moisture sandwiched in the mid level deformation extending northeast into the CWA from the upper low. The low will remain south of Cape Mendocino Monday morning and skies should start out more interesting than today with more cloud cover and possible activity on radar.
Also, went a little cooler across the north to coincide with this radiational cooling.
With the upper low in place and the high moisture content, expect widespread storms today capable of producing torrential downpours. The upper low that is in place is forecast to gradually weaken through the next 24-36 hours and an upper ridge will gradually build in by mid week.
This will be the last round of storms for the greater potions of the area as the upper ridge repositions itself briefly over the Panhandles.
There could be some lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms in south central Kansas during the morning hours before the trough axis clears that area. Given the aforementioned trends, think that chances for additional precipitation through the rest of today are fairly slim given how far south of the area that the cold front has moved.
1116 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Latest upper analysis shows an upper low center over Winnipeg swinging a weakly defined upper trough across the forecast area. The upper ridge will continue to build and broaden, leading to dry and warm weather tonight and on Sunday. On Monday the upper and thermal ridge will peak over the forecast area ahead of a cold front. Some thunderstorms are possible on Mon aftn/night as the cold front crosses the area.
Synoptic frontal zone marking stronger surge of cooler and drier air has pushed southward into far northern Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Other than the fog, weather concerns will be relatively minor over the next 24 hours as cooler high pressure settles through the eastern half of the region through tonight.
This boundary will be the main front that will bring cooler, drier air, so will still be dealing with excessive heat today for areas along and south of Interstate 70, so no changes to ongoing heat headlines.
As the day goes on, the highest CAPE will shift over into southeast Illinois, as some lower dew points start to advect into areas northwest of the Illinois River. However, as the cooler air lags further behind, temperatures reaching the lower 90s will still result in significant instability over the northern CWA this afternoon. Will maintain the mention of scattered storms this afternoon and evening across the forecast area, as the cold front settles across the region. Quiet weather will dominate the first few days of the work week, as high pressure drifts across the Great Lakes.
Otherwise, should be mostly clear well inland with temperatures inland in the low to mid 70s overnight. The eastern CONUS trough will amplify slightly on Sunday, before beginning to lift northeast on Monday. Locally, a flat east-west ridge will prevail with afternoon storms generated by the seabreeze fronts. High temperatures will be seasonable, in the lower 90s with heat indices in the low 100's.
Ridge that was over the area and is breaking down will continue to do so as a strong s/w works southeast through the Great lakes region. This will lead to slightly lower rain chances on Tue but by mid week and through the remainder of the work week the ridge should build back in enough overhead to provide near normal to possibly even slightly below normal rain chances. Still looks like high pressure will build in from the east across the northern Gulf while a weak front tries to drop into the area early in the work week.
245 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Large scale ridge has amplifies over the western US, with NW flow over the Northern Plains. If there was a period to monitor it may be Monday/Monday night with better instability developing as southerly flow in the low levels brings higher Tds back to our CWA.
1232 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 A cold front will drop into north Arkansas by Sunday afternoon. Tonight Through Monday High pressure will weaken over Arkansas in the near term, with a weak system aloft over the western Gulf Coast. A weak cold front will also approach from the north.
338 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 High pressure over the region today will keep conditions dry with pleasant temperatures for eastern areas.
341 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 The outflow boundary in northern Oklahoma along with a weak trough to the northeast of Oklahoma will provide a focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development today and Monday. The boundary will likely affect the northern half of Oklahoma today, although a few storms could form most anywhere given the slight cooling aloft with the upper trough in the Midwest. On Monday, the influence of the upper trough will still be to the northeast of Oklahoma providing a similar, favorable atmosphere along with the fading, but lingering surface boundary. Beyond Monday, the upper ridge builds over Oklahoma once again bringing very high temperatures and humidity once again during mid-week.
The upper low on the Gulf coast is slowing and weakening, but will be close enough to help out once again today.
A weak cold front is located across northern Kansas, as evidenced by a line of cumulus from Stockton to Beloit. Sunday should remain dry and cooler as high pressure builds into the area. Highs are expected to "only" be in the low 90s.
Monsoon plume has shifted over the region with the upper trof axis across east central CO progged by models to rotate southward through the evening hours. Thunderstorm activity also develops along the surface trof axis across the plains and all activity congeals into an MCS across southeast CO which shifts southward with time through the evening and early overnight hours. Decided to throw in the Wet mountains and northern Sangre De Cristo mountains due to proximity and the highly susceptible nature of the Junkins and Hayden Pass burn scar. thunderstorm activity should be less widespread as northerly flow around the top of the ridge suppresses the monsoon plume southward.