Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1054 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Low stratus along southward moving cold front should break up into the early afternoon. Otherwise, all indications with the cam models show shower/storm development along this cold front this afternoon and evening. Steady southerly winds are common, with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This trough/cold front will sink and extend from our MN counties through central SD, and become the focus for shower and thunderstorm development coinciding with peak daytime heating. Behind the cold front, high pressure over southern Saskatchewan and western ND at 00Z Tuesday will slowly sink a ridge across the region.
1128 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will weaken over the local area today.
100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will finish sinking south across the area this morning with high pressure building over the region between tonight and Tuesday.
1208 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/ CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 70S AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE PREVAILS. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL REACH INTO THE 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS THE FORWARD QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEBRASKA NEARS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NO CHANGE TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT FOCUS OF CONVECTION AND CONCERN TURNING TO THE WARM FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WERE LIKELY PRODUCING A HEALTHY REGION OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE STATE. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WAS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
1240 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING AND AM EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. THE LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST BY THE TIME PEAK DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
136 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SW TX. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
347 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE WEST TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LOW REMNANT ALSO WAS EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH TROUGH AXIS TRAILING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS TOWARD SECONDARY LOW IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/WESTERN OK. WITH TROUGH AXIS TRAILING THROUGH IA/EASTERN NEB.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA.
THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS MEETING UP WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT AND BRING LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE IS 2000 TO 3000 FEET THICK LAYER OF SATURATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH MID TUE MORNING. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
450 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL AREA WEATHER ALL WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
/TONIGHT/ STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
COOLEST TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT.
143 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
352 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL THERE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THERE WAS A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT ON THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WHICH ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN EMERGES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HIGHS TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN.
An upper level low currently over the western U. The jet stream rounding the base of the low will be located directly over the CWA and surface heating on Tuesday will help mix these winds into the mountains and adjacent plains. Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Davis Mountains mainly for the higher elevations above 6000 feet; winds should not be quite as strong in Fort Davis, Marfa, and Alpine though it will still be quite windy.
335 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016 THE UPPER LOW WAS WORKING INTO SW UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEAR GJT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORTED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING SETTING OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WORKS ONTO THE NE- KS PLAINS.
AS A VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE CO ROCKIES. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NEARBY AREAS.
ONE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
359 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL SET UP A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 50S. WHILE THE MIXED RIDGES STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THE COMMOTION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS EXITS THE REGION. THE LOW WAS SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE. ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST TROUGH ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF MN/WI. PROFILE DATA IS QUITE SATURATED IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN ADDITION TO THE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
345 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
345 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE WEST TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NESTLED AGAINST THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BULGES SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 70S.
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
350 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DANGEROUS TSTMS IN THE HIGH INSTABILITY/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW. EXPECT FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO HELP INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT. SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEBRASKA.
THERE IS A NICE AND JUICY 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE WHICH WILL FEED INTO THE STORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT (STORMS ALSO HELPED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT).
FOR CONTINUITY HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
532 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
For tonight, the cold front that is draped across the area, from southwest to northeast, is expected to sag to and stall along the I- 70 corridor.
COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. H850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 10-13C RANGE ACROSS THE DRY SLOT WHILE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT READINGS DROP INTO THE 7-10C RANGE.
153 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH EAST AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA LATER ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR. DVLPG SFC TROF OVER NRN PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONV PCPN. WITH COOLER AIR DROPPING TEMPS BLO NRML THU MRNG.
318 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDED GOOD MIXING, SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THEN LAST NIGHTS LOWS WITH VALUES NEAR 60. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST, A TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWRD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
136 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CL THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AND SLOWLY DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER ONES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
343 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016 UPPER LOW IN WESTERN UTAH WILL MOVE TO WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT THEN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO TOMORROW. ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS FIRST OF THESE CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH MODELS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE PLACING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A STIFF NWLY FLOW.
604 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL THERE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL STREAM BACK TO THE NORTH BRINGING WITH IT WARM MOIST AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY. RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI TO THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
618 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL AREA WEATHER ALL WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA AND INTO THE HUDSON BAY STRETCHES DOWN INTO NORTHERN MAINE. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OF PA BY TUE MORNING. CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION LATE TONIGHT WHILE IT REMAINS MAINLY CLEAR TO THE NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY BRINING CLOUDY SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. A WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT/CALM WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE THAT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE. THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHICH MAY AID IN HOLDING THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, AND 3. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG HIGHWAY 36 (ANTICIPATED WARM FRONT/DRYLINE LOCATION AS OF NOON CDT).
640 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
603 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES GIVING E IOWA/W ILLINOIS A REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.
POPS WILL DECREASE IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS CWA. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST THIS AM. WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AM. THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WAVE/TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHEARS E/NE. THE NEXT WAVE/TROF IS COMING UP FAST AND EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TUES. 41 MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW SWINGS OVER SOUTHERN CO/KS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
323 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH EAST AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA LATER ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR. DVLPG SFC TROF OVER NRN PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONV PCPN. WITH COOLER AIR DROPPING TEMPS BLO NRML THU MRNG.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GREAT PLAINS.
A GLANCE AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST WILL EJECT EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 6500 FEET BUT SNOW LEVELS INTO CONVERSE COUNTY MAY DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT AS THERE IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THAT AREA. OF COURSE IF TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST THEN HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR.
WITH THE HIGHEST 12 HOUR AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE VERY WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FARTHER E/SE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S INLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER 80S COAST AND UPPER 80S INTERIOR. RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD FRI-SAT AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN SUN-MON WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE E/SE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS NORTH OR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WED-THU. THE RIDGE MAY GET NUDGED SOUTH A BIT FRI/SAT AS A FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS.
By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the higher PoP's continuing to spread into southeast Illinois. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat south of the area as well.
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS COULD ENABLE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN NW MN AND SLOWING ERODING FROM THE NE AS THE SHEAR AXIS IS REPLACED WITH 500MB RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
351 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH HELPING TO BRING THE RAIN TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
245 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TUESDAY.
243 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL SET UP A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 50S. WHILE THE MIXED RIDGES STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE STATE. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND WAS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
Dry and Slightly Warmer. Most models take the dryline into our eastern counties during this time frame, then slowly retreat it during the evening, before a Pacific cold front arrives and helps to push the dryline fairly quickly east of the area after midnight.
250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY AROUND MIDDLE TN WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY AND TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES JUST A BIT STRONGER. BUT IT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AS MOST OTHER MODELS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO OFFER PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND ERODE AWAY THE ACTIVITY BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOWER AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY BACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRAW THE DRYLINE BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER ON THE CAPROCK. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUE INTO WED. MINIMAL FORCING AS WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEP SFC TEMPS WARM AND CLOUD COVER TO MINIMUM.
1242 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 UPPER LOW VISUALLY APPEARING ON WATER VAPOR AS IT SPINS TO THE EAST INTO N WI. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. COLUMN COOLS HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS MINIMUMS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY END. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA WITH STRONG 80KT JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH ENTERING SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
Pacific cold front was sweeping across the area this afternoon. Generally quiet weather can be expected through Sunday as ridging builds back over the region.
Precipitation will diminish later this morning with clearing skies this afternoon as high pressure builds over the region. Clearing skies are expected for the remainder of the day with breezy southwest winds becoming light by this evening as high pressure builds over the region.
Daytime south wind gusts to 20 KTS at KABI and KSJT with lee trough development.
258 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Deep upper trough over eastern Pacific serving to keep much of country locked in wx pattern, including our area with stg upper ridge in place centered generally near the LA gulf coast.
we stll have a dry stable airmass in place with a lee trough in eastern Colorado. We still expect the lee trough to move east later tonight with a high pressure center dropping across eastern Colorado and dropping temperatures back into the 70s. Looks like another mainly dry and mild autumn week ahead for Colorado with high pressure in control with just a few exceptions.
High pressure arrives tonight and lingers Sunday. Weak cold front Sunday night. Most of the low stratus has broken up, but only to be replaced by a cumulus deck in the cold air advection that is in full swing. Models trying to spit out some QPF, but did not include any POPs as the low levels are very dry. Went with a slightly non-diurnal temp curve overnight for the higher elevations where 850mb temps start increasing after midnight. With high pressure sliding east, will get some warm air advection, and when combined with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will recover nicely from todays chill.
1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 1248 PM CDT Skies continue to clear from west to east this afternoon as high pressure shifts east. With high pressure departing, low level southwest flow will continue tonight along with warm air advection and support warmer lows tonight in the 40s. 12z NAM and GFS runs suggest that the cold front will hold off for most of the day across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. Another impressive thermal ridge ahead of the front coupled with gusty southwest winds will allow all areas to reach the upper 60s and many areas having a good shot at 70 (and higher south), especially from the metro area southward. Despite low pressure quickly shifting through the region Sunday into Sunday night, dry conditions will limit precip development.
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 A low pressure system continues to push west to east across the northern plains. Dry and mild as upper level ridging develops over the area late Sunday.