Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dew points are already mixing into the upper 20s to lower 30s along and behind this trough. This will push RH values into the lower 20 percent range along and south of I-90 today. Stronger cold air advection is expected overnight tonight behind a cold front leading to an increase in winds after midnight.
255 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 The persistent weather pattern - western states ridge of high pressure and the Hudson Bay low pressure - will generally continue over the next several days.
914 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Temperatures have risen above freezing temperatures in response to sunny skies this morning. Cool, dry northwesterly flow aloft remains in place as a strong ridge continues to build in from the west. Wednesday, exactly the same thing as the high continues to build in. High pressure remains in control with warm temperatures still in the forecast.
1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure continues over the area. Today Through Wednesday Night Cooler and drier conditions are ongoing early this Tue morning in wake of the cold front that moved through the region Mon morning. A new cold front will drop SE into the state Wed night.
Highly amplified ridge pattern now dominating the West Coast as warmer then normal conditions begin. While the upper level flow over Central California is southeasterly under the upper high, speeds will generally be light both at the surface and aloft for several days. While the potential to reach triple digit heat is likely under the current magnitude of the ridge, smoke from Sierra Nevada wildfires may inhibit that potential. The blocking high pressure ridge is expected to remain over the West Coast through out the week with little change in weather conditions. Model confidence is growing that a disturbance pushing through the Pacific Northwest could weaken the Blocking pattern during the weekend.
An upper level west coast ridge remains in place, keeping the Northern Plains in a northwest flow regime aloft. A stronger push of cold air advection will cross the state Wednesday, bringing with it much cooler air (highs in the 50s) and gusty winds.
A ridge of high pressure will remain the dominate feature for the remainder of the week and going into this weekend. Afternoon temperatures throughout the Northern Rockies will remain a few degrees above normal for this time of the year, with most valleys reaching the mid 70s in western Montana, and low 80s in the low lands of north-central Idaho. High pressure is providing sunny skies and stable conditions. Smoke is entering the ridge from northern California and is forecast to make a clockwise progression with arrival to the Northern Rockies as early as Wednesday afternoon.
Persistent dry weather pattern will continue for the foreseeable future as a dominant ridge of high pressure aloft remains nearly anchored across the intermountain west and four corners region.
1116 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 08z surface analysis had warm front from central ND into southern WY. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over the western CONUS with upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. Today/tonight, warm front moves through the CWA with modest low level warm air advection and some high clouds zipping through. Tonight, a dry cold front moves into the CWA late. Wednesday, gusty northwest winds expected given tighter gradient behind cold front and sustained, but modest cold air advection. Temperatures will be 10F cooler than today.
1039 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: The anomalous weather pattern in the near term will feature a highly amplified western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trough. Clear skies and light wind tonight will result in rather ideal nocturnal cooling conditions and this should send temperatures down to the upper 40s for the normally cooler spots.
Some locations throughout and west of the Missouri River valley will probably nose up into the lower 80s today before it's all said and done. A cold front has pushed south through the CWA.
A deep and slow-moving upper-level trough was located over the western Great Lakes and the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will trend cooler for Wednesday and the cold air advection will help keep the boundary layer well mixed. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to upper 50s.
(This evening through Wednesday) Westerly winds will being warmer 850 mb temperatures east off the High Plains tonight and into tomorrow, so warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as we mix into that warmer air.
Wednesday will see that short wave in Manitoba drop into the Great Lakes and cold front will move through the fcst area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): High pressure continues to build over the area as an overhead mid level trough shifts east, and upstream ridging builds over North Central Mexico and East Texas toward the lower RGV.
Warmer air moves in tomorrow behind the upper trough exiting the area today. A dry cold front moves through later in the day Wednesday, bringing a return to cooler temperatures.
350 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a long-wave trough sliding east through the Mississippi River Valley. A cold front bisects the Gulf of Mexico from northeast to southwest, with dewpoints ranging from 40 to 50 degrees from Texas to Mobile, AL. A broken swath of showers and storms stretches from the Yucatan to near Tampa, right along the lower tropospheric confluence ahead of the front. The low-level ridge axis is intact over South Florida and the Keys. First, the cold front will denigrate and stall very near the Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure will settle across the region tonight causing the winds to calm and this will set things up for a cool night across the region.
This of course put the temperature forecast in jeopardy as most locations are struggling into the lower 60s. Hopefully by this evening we will put this one behind us, clear out, and get ready for some cooler fall temps.
1218 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Morning showers along the coast, followed by showers and TSTMs late today and tonight as a cold front moves through. High pressure in wake of this front, will bring cooler and drier air through the remainder of the period. Cold air advection already underway before daybreak Wednesday and min-T will be notably cooler at sunrise, widespread 60s. Very quiet weather expected for the end of the work week as deep mid level troughing will dominate across the eastern third of the conus.
High pressure will remain in control the next 24 hours and dry air will continue to filter over the area. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 430 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): High pressure at both the low and mid levels will continue to build across western and central Texas with pleasant and dry conditions. Continued northerly flow into Tuesday night will allow for cooler temperatures to remain in place with highs today in the low to mid 80s with overnight temperatures falling into the 50s.
137 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Satellite and upper level analysis has an upper ridge in place over the western CONUS, resulting in northerly flow across the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front extends through Montana and North Dakota as approaches the area. For tonight, the cold front will move through the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will be cooler than today, but should only be slightly below seasonal averages.
Expect dry weather conditions to prevail over the next several days as high pressure builds across the Pacific Northwest.
An strong upper level ridge will remain over the region through the extended with above normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Wildfire smoke will generally stay west of the area in CA and western OR today before slowly getting wrapped clockwise around the high pressure.
A deep upper trough is swinging through the region this afternoon with below normal temperatures.
303 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Deep moisture will continue in the southwest flow out ahead of the cool front favoring the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula for the highest rain chances for the rest of this afternoon. Some cooler drier air will filter into the northern half of the region late tonight and everywhere during Wednesday, but the upper level support will have moved out so front will slow down and begin to wash out over south Florida.
230 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Winds will continue to decrease late this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes between high pressure to our southwest and low pressure to our northeast. A cold front is expected to move south across the Panhandles Wednesday morning. High temperatures on Wednesday will still be able to get above normal with readings in the mid 80's to the lower 90's.
238 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Tonight and Wednesday: The cooler airmass in place with temps still warming into the 70s has led to some cumulus development over eastern sections.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 73 56 73 48 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 70 54 70 47 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 71 54 70 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 66 51 67 44 / 40 0 0 10 10.
A warmer Wednesday is in the forecast as height rises aloft and a downslope-warmed airmass travels into our area from the northwest.
A high amplitude upper ridge remains across the area this afternoon and will persist through most of the week.
339 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Very cool and dry conditions will be the rule through most of this week as an upper level trough digs into the northeast U.
152 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Persistent dry weather pattern will continue for the foreseeable future as a dominant ridge of high pressure aloft remains nearly anchored across the intermountain west and four corners region.
345 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A cold front and upper low will cross the region today and tonight. High pressure will build in behind the front on Wednesday.
1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 VFR conditions to prevail through the 18Z TAF pd, as high pressure continues to build at the surface and flow aloft remains out of the nw. Temperatures to range from highs in the low to mid 70s today and lows in the lower 50s tonight. Highs on Wednesday to climb into the lower 80s.
A high amplitude mid-level ridge is currently centered over the western US. Strong winds on the eastern side of that ridge are leading to strong mixing and a drying out of the lower levels. Deeper mixing has allowed for much warmer temperatures than expected. However, temperatures should be significantly cooler, particularly in northeast Nebraska. A trough will move south from Manitoba into the Ohio River Valley area. A cold front associated with that trough will begin to move through the forecast area tonight near midnight and by noon tomorrow it should have cleared the forecast area. The cold front temperature difference will be much less pronounced along the Nebraska/Kansas border. With cooler temperatures, relative humidity values should be slightly higher than today (current forecast for min RH is 25 to 30 percent).
A good portion of the area will see near critical fire weather conditions again tomorrow with RH values in the low 20s and winds around 20-25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Later tonight and into tomorrow a backdoor cold front is expected to sag south and bring cooler weather to the area again. The cold front will begin the cool down with highs around 8-10 degrees cooler for tomorrow. Then as the main upper level trof to the east begins to deepen, another shot of cold air is pulled down through the Central Plains.
A cold front will move through Wed nt but will be rather moisture starved. Cooler air will work in behind it.
Strong cold front moving east across forecast area this afternoon will pass east of the region this evening. High pressure will build from the west overnight, with rainfall ending from west to east.
1138 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Temperatures have risen above freezing temperatures in response to sunny skies this morning. Cool, dry northwesterly flow aloft remains in place as a strong ridge continues to build in from the west. Wednesday, exactly the same thing as the high continues to build in. High pressure remains in control with warm temperatures still in the forecast.
1157 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Today is looking to warm up a little more than yesterday as the deep longwave trough over midwest starts to shift to the east allowing some ridging and WAA to move into the area. The warm up will continue into Wednesday, but mostly south of HWY 36 as a dry cold front pushes into the area from the north. This will keep northern Missouri slightly cooler, and definitely drier as dewpoints will fall into the 30s by the afternoon.
125 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Showers will continue this afternoon, then diminish tonight as a cold upper trough slides across the Upper Ohio Region. A deep, phasing trough will slowly dig across the Upper Ohio through this evening as showers continue as per increasing forcing-for-ascent. Rainfall is not expected to be problematic as per eastward trough, and convective element progression along with an influx of drying mid level air. A cooler airmass is already in place and no appreciable change was needed for the low temperature forecast just a few degrees under the seasonal averages. The trough axis/cold front and associated precipitation will shift eastward by Wednesday morning.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail for the rest of today with high temperatures reaching the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows tonight will once again be in the low to mid 50s (slightly higher along the inner coastal locations and Barrier Islands).
Axis of upper trough/cold pool aloft is produced some showers across the northern Plateau. Axis of upper trough/cold pool aloft is produced some showers across the northern Plateau. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 74 54 74 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 71 54 71 47 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 72 53 71 46 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 67 51 68 44 / 40 0 0 10 0.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight into early Wednesday morning as the 500mb ridge across the western United States and the 500mb trough across the eastern U. /issued 239 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): High pressure continues to build over the area as an overhead mid level trough shifts east, and upstream ridging builds over North Central Mexico and East Texas toward the lower RGV.
406 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Not much to speak on as autumnal high pressure continues to build into the region to maintain dry conditions for much of this forecast valid period.
747 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Showers will diminish tonight as an upper trough slides across the Upper Ohio Valley. Light showers continue across the region this evening with increased forcing for ascent in advance of the upper trough axis. A deep, phasing trough will slowly dig across the Upper Ohio through this evening as showers continue as per increasing forcing- for- ascent. Rainfall is not expected to be problematic as per eastward trough, and convective element progression along with an influx of drying mid level air. A cooler airmass is already in place and no appreciable change was needed for the low temperature forecast just a few degrees under the seasonal averages. The trough axis/cold front and associated precipitation will shift eastward by Wednesday morning.
Upper ridge axis over the PacNW coast will move slowly eastward and reach WA/OR on Wednesday. Southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho will remain on the eastern side of the ridge with northwest flow aloft over the area. Wildfire smoke aloft on the western side of the ridge will enter our area from the northwest on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with valley highs in the 80s (around 10 to 15 degrees above normal).
PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A cold front bringing showers and a strong thunderstorm or two this evening will move off the coast overnight.
A cold front will move through KBVO around 17-18Z and KTUL/KRVS and the northwest AR sites around 19-21Z. A brief and robust warm up will occur tomorrow ahead of the next cold front which will pass Wed afternoon / Wed evening.
Axis of upper trough/cold pool aloft is produced some showers across the northern Plateau. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 74 54 74 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 71 54 71 47 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 72 53 71 46 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 67 51 68 44 / 40 0 0 10 0.
655 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Cooler and drier air building in behind a cold front will continue the mostly clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions through the forecast pd. Tonight and Wednesday: The cooler airmass in place with temps still warming into the 70s has led to some cumulus development over eastern sections.
1025 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Very cool and dry conditions will be the rule through most of this week as an upper level trough digs into the northeast U.
743 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A cold front will sink south across the area tonight with scattered showers across the region. The cold front will stall across south Florida on Wednesday with drier air advecting over the northern and central forecast area with dew points dropping into the lower 50s north and mid 50s central.
/Tonight/ Temps have dropped off quickly since sunset with the dry air mass in place (and about 1-5+ degrees cooler than 24 hrs ago), with most locales having fallen to near or below 60 degrees as of 02Z. Good radiational cooling will continue overnight, as the thin cirrus in the NW flow aloft continues to dissipate on the backside of the upper trough that continues to slowly shift E from the Great Lakes Region into the Nrn Gulf of MX.
Clear skies and calm conditions thanks to high pressure building into the region will yield another night with temps below normal. High pressure will settle across the region tonight causing the winds to calm and this will set things up for a cool night across the region.
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Pronounced mid level trough currently over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys is feeding steady northwest flow into the immediate forecast area. Through the rest of the week, the mid levels will be dominated by a long wave trough situated generally over the Hudson Bay region, which will cause the mid level flow over the immediate area to remain northwest, but perhaps a bit more zonal than meridional.
513 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure will persist over the West at midweek. The high described in the short term discussion persists through the end of the week, so dry conditions with warm sunny days and clear and cool nights will continue.
309 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
802 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure will build over the area tonight.
VFR conditions expected to prevail thru 30/00Z per building sfc ridging influences and flow aloft exhibiting zonal dry characteristics.
517 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Showers will diminish tonight as an upper trough slides across the Upper Ohio Valley. Light showers continue across the region this evening with increased forcing for ascent in advance of the upper trough axis. A deep, phasing trough will slowly dig across the Upper Ohio through this evening as showers continue as per increasing forcing- for- ascent. Rainfall is not expected to be problematic as per eastward trough, and convective element progression along with an influx of drying mid level air. A cooler airmass is already in place and no appreciable change was needed for the low temperature forecast just a few degrees under the seasonal averages. The trough axis/cold front and associated precipitation will shift eastward by Wednesday morning.
743 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Northwest flow aloft will continue across the Mid-South through the near term in the wake of the trough moving up the OH Valley. A deep upper trough is swinging through the region this afternoon with below normal temperatures.
Flow aloft will veer sharply to the northwest in the wake of the trough axis, and this will induce a broad region of subsidence that will be increasingly unfavorable for precipitation.
Otherwise, latest water vapor imagery shows a dominant amplified mid-level ridge over the western CONUS extending over OR on north across the British Columbia coast into the Yukon. Large scale pattern in the short term will remained controlled by the mid-level ridge, of which the axis will shift east some to be over British Columbia/Alberta by late Wednesday. Current thinking is continued dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will prevail. Of which, highs will be a similar to a few degrees warmer than today, warmer in the Basin, and reading about 10-20 degrees above normal.
1044 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure will build over the area tonight.
Windy, and warm conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon, before a weak cold front brings cooler temperatures and higher humidity this evening into tonight. High temperatures for Wednesday will be about 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today, with the coolest readings expected over North-central Montana. A weak cold front forecast to reach the Hi-Line area late this afternoon, before traversing the remainder of Central/North- central Montana during the overnight hours and eventually becoming nearly stationary over the southwest. The front will bring cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity for tonight and Wednesday, with some lower clouds expected to develop along the Divide and over portions of plains. Wednesday's high temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than today, with lower elevation highs in the 60s and 70s.
With high pressure & drier air building in (i. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: The cooler airmass in place with temps still warming into the 70s has led to some cumulus development over eastern sections.
All of this activity is a result of a cold front digging through the south and along the Gulf Coast, currently analyzed from Daytona Beach to Tampa Bay, with a secondary band of cloudiness represented well in IR sat imagery soon approaching the Big Bend of FL. Sfc cold front currently analyzed extending from DAB to TPA, with a NW wind shift already observed at LEE. (modified previous) Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will veer west overnight and decrease slightly, then become northwest overnight returning to 10-15 knots as a cold front pushes through the area.
Yesterdays cold front has now moved well east of our forecast area, generally stretching from south central Georgia, down across the Florida Big Bend (near Tallahassee) and then southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For tonight and Wednesday, a much drier and cooler northwesterly flow is building across the region in the wake of the front. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s over our northwestern interior zones (generally west of I-65 and north of Highway 84), to the lower 50s elsewhere across the area, except for along the immediate coast where mid to upper 50s are expected. A few of the barrier islands may see lows in the lower 60s tonight(as they are surrounded by warm waters and winds will likely stay up a little overnight along the coast as well).
512 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Satellite and upper level analysis has an upper ridge in place over the western CONUS, resulting in northerly flow across the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front extends through Montana and North Dakota as approaches the area. For tonight, the cold front will move through the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will be cooler than today, but should only be slightly below seasonal averages.
736 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A cold front bringing showers and a strong thunderstorm or two this evening will move off the coast overnight.