Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A BAND OF STEADIER SNOWFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING RELATED WELL WITH A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS CROSSING EASTERN COLORADO AS OF 06Z. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND EVEN THE HRRR HINT AT SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STATUS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH THE SNOW THAT FELL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 40-45F OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WITH COOLER 30S NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR.
A CLOSED AREA OF H5 LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. AT H7 THERE WAS GOOD MOISTURE WITH THE CLOSED LOW.
STRONG COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A STRONG GRADIENT OF TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR A PORT LAVACA TO ENCINAL LINE BY 18Z TODAY AND BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 21Z. BUT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS TO CORSICANA TO BROWNWOOD.
STILL LOOKING AT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. MODELS TRACK THIS LOW EASTWARD AND WEAKEN IT TODAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION PROVIDING THE AREA WITH MORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA.
1150 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2015 A cold front will continue to sweep through the region this morning, bringing with it a thick layer of stratus and gusty north northwest winds. Models have thus far poorly represented the amount of cloud cover moving down into the region today, so have trended toward the cooler side of guidance for max temperatures today, and expect little to no diurnal temperature rises due to cloud cover and cold air advection.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME CI LATE. UPPER JET MAXIMA CURRENTLY ROUNDING TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH HAD ERODED THE LOW CLOUD LAYER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND PLACING WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES, LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LEADING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE KS CO BORDER.
328 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 Any remaining snow flurry activity will end this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region and brings much drier air over the region. This bubble of arctic high pressure will lead to bitterly cold temperatures overnight as skies should be partly to mostly clear with light/calm winds by mid evening. This high will remain in place into Wednesday with highs limited to the teens to around 20 once again with lows then holding in the single digits on Wednesday night as cloud cover increases in advance of the next storm system.
If forcing or moisture trend upward, could be a sneaky 1+" for someone, but as it stands, thinking 3/4 of an inch will be toward the high end of amounts, but still enough that there could be a few slick spots.
As we near the end of the week, broad troughing that had characterized the entire CONUS de-amplifies and shifts eastward into the Atlantic Ocean.
As high pressure over MN shifts east into WI, winds will become light and variable overnight.
Satellite indicates this will continue through the afternoon, as weak High pressure shifts into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will feel warmer today, as winds decrease this afternoon, allowing wind chills to climb above the zero degree mark.
Aloft, another trough deepens over the Great Plains to our west and southwesterly flow continues to overspread the Deep South and Southeast states downstream. Surface cyclogenesis beneath the southeastern flank of the deepening trough results in an area of low pressure developing in the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning. This low tracks northeastward across the north-central Gulf and towards the Deep South throughout the day Wednesday. This, combined with strengthening upper-level support associated with the encroaching trough, will support widespread shower activity overspreading the area from southwest to northeast beginning late Wednesday afternoon. Any wintry mix should remain to our northwest over central and northern Mississippi/Alabama where near-surface temps are more likely to remain at or below freezing.
This will allow a somewhat warmer southerly flow to develop, bringing the beginning of the end of our several day long bitter cold snap.
Upper level analysis places broad trough dropping through the midwest. A variety of weak waves noted dropping down the back-side of the trough. Overnight lows will be a little warmer, though still may have some wind chill concerns over eastern portions of our area.
1140 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 High pressure continues over the area this morning.
315 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 High pressure builds in from the north overnight through Wednesday.
High pressure is in place over the area, and with light winds, the mid February sun is working it's magic in most spots, but melting/sublimating snow and ice off the concrete and blacktop surfaces as well as vehicles. I'll keep pops in the lower likley to moderate chance level, but not expect this event to produce much of anything.
The upper level 500mb trough and positive vorticity advection along with 250mb divergence shift east of the area around sunrise. Meanwhile the surface to 900mb frontogenesis remains strong along our lakeshore counties until this afternoon as the northeast flow across the lake weakens and high pressure starts to move in. We'll be about 10-15 degrees warmer today, but lows will drop overnight in the single digits below zero across most of the area. Winds will be light overnight through with the high pressure overhead. Quiet conditions continue through most of Wednesday with highs a couple degrees warmer than today.
Daytime boundary layer mixing today should start this subtle warming with high temperatures expected to rise around zero degrees, a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Even warmer on Wednesday, when highs will rise above the zero marker despite lingering cloudiness.
134 PM MST Tue Feb 16 2021 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough covering the CONUS. Surface map shows high pressure to the east and low pressure to the southwest.
Extended the Hard Freeze Warning through Noon CST as a deck of low-level clouds have moved over the area, with temperatures struggling to rise above freezing. /issued Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Sub-freezing temperatures are currently being reported across most of Deep South Texas, with readings in the lower to middle 20s due to the combination of generally clear skies and very light winds. High pressure is expected to remain in control through at least this afternoon with dry conditions expected. This will allow high temperatures to climb even higher than today, possibly into the lower to middle 60s.
Continued gusty northwest winds are expected the rest of the afternoon and again Wednesday as the region continues to feel the backside effects of the long wave troughing that is bringing such substantial cold to the US east of the Rockies.
Wind chills were in the low 20s below zero in the east. Some moderation in temperatures Wednesday as the arctic high pressure center migrates over the Great Lakes and New England. High forecast to be as much has 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today. From 20 to the low 20s west, and the mid to upper teens east. Upper troughing will again deepen across the mid section of the U.
313 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 Some cooler drier air has begun to move into the area this afternoon, but this is rather shallow as there are already signs of the moisture return with some clouds around 6000 to 7000 feet spreading northeast. Overnight into Wednesday the boundary will move back north as a warm front leading to increased clouds and a few showers toward morning across southwest Florida developing northward during the morning.
A midlevel trough moving across NE MT in the afternoon will tighten the midlevel gradient a bit, continuing the light snowfall production for NW WY and the Bighorn range. Areas of Johnson County look to be the most prone to snowfall Wednesday, being closest to the trough axis to the NE, and could see and inch or two during the day.
The Kansas Mesonet site at Scandia has even reported an absolutely frigid low of -30 degrees as of this writing! A persistent light breeze has kept temperatures at Topeka and Lawrence closer to -10, but even these sites should drop another five degrees or so if winds can fully calm as the ridge axis moves eastward. Snow should mostly taper off by mid-morning tomorrow, though a few flurries may linger into the afternoon as the upper trough axis passes through.
Along the foothills some gap flow winds are still blowing but combination of temperatures near freezing and winds having dropped a bit from earlier peaks have seemed to slow blowing and drifting snow on webcams. This will mainly bring a chance of snow to the mountains, as much of the lower elevations will be downsloped. Temperatures still on track for a moderating trend trough the period. The pressure gradient still expected to intensify as some fairly strong lee-side trough develops.
350 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 Cold air will move in behind departing low pressure tonight and Wednesday.
Temperatures across the aforementioned areas remain in the low single digits along with a south-southeast wind at around 5-15 mph, resulting in wind chills as low as -14 deg F reported at a few West Texas Mesonet sites. While the official product will expire at noontime, bitter cold will persist all day as temperatures struggle to breach the lower 20s off the Caprock. An upper level short wave trough just taking shape over the 4-corners region and supported by 150+ kt jet streak nosing southeastward out of northern California and Nevada will sharpen as it moves southeastward, progged to cross the South Plains/Panhandle region tonight. Earlier indications suggest a potential for some freezing rain as precipitation begins. Focus for snow then shifts pretty quickly northward this evening as the upper trough moves across northeastern New Mexico and the dynamics focus across the Panhandle.
Radar shows the upper level low moving ENE across west central IL early this morning, with snow quickly ending over parts of SE IA and NE MO. Early this morning, snow will be quickly ending from southwest to northeast as the upper level low moves off to the east. The weekend looks much warmer with models still showing a potential storm system to impact the region. With increasing confidence and better model consensus, pops have been increased to the high chance category.
201 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 We're slowly breaking free of the record cold airmass that had overtaken most of the Lower 48. Soundings also suggest weakened stability above the 700 mb layer, so cannot completely rule out a bit more intensification than some of the higher resolution models suggest. The 500 mb trough axis will take it's time moving eastward, and could keep at very light snow or flurries across areas east of I-29 through mid-afternoon.
Ceilings at all locations going to IFR overnight, with freezing rain likely at BBD and JCT.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase late this afternoon and evening as the mid/upper trough translates eastward across the Southern Plains with another round of snow expected across portions of southern and southeast Kansas tonight with some light snow lingering into the morning hours on Wednesday before the system moves away from the area. The highest probabilities for accumulating snow are expected along and east of the Kansas Turnpike this evening and tonight where a general 1-2 inches can be expected. The mean mid/upper trough across the central CONUS is progged to gradually shift eastward with northwest mid/upper flow returning for the latter portion of the work-week.
Any lingering lake effect snow should dissipate by this afternoon as winds turn northwesterly and high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes. Highs today are expected to be noticeably warmer, ranging from 12 to 17 across the north, with highs of 15 to 20 across east-central and northeast Wisconsin. Winds will turn southerly ahead of an approaching low pressure system on Wednesday as modest warm air advection warms daytime highs into the 15 to 20 degree range.
104 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 A cold front will stall near the Keys this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers are along the front, aided by SFC forcing, veering southwesterlies through the lower troposphere, and adequate moisture sampled by this morning's KKEY RAOB. The forecast calls for highs to stay right about where they are now, in the lower 80s. A weak cold front will limp southeastward and through most of our coastal waters by late today, before becoming stationary and lifting back northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning.
/issued 439 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/ Many locations in our western CWA will finally see temperatures warm above freezing this afternoon as westerly downslope winds kick in. If we fail to reach freezing in Midland today, it would be our 6th day in a row with a high temperature below freezing which is a new record. A cold front will arrive on the heels of the departing upper trof early Wednesday with Arctic air filtering back into the CWA.
Further west, the low-level baroclinic zone will push eastward, allowing temperatures across NE WY to push into the upper teens to low 20s this afternoon. Warmest temperatures are expected across the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Northwest flow will persist through mid-week under the influence of a large scale upper trough centered across the central US. Zonal upper flow returns by late week along with drier and warmer west-southwest low-to-mid-level flow.
Another wave moving along the longwave trough will develop a low pressure system across southern TX early Wednesday. This low, will move northeast during the day with the initial precipitation reaching the forecast area by Wednesday night. Temperatures here in northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee will finally rise above freezing in the afternoon prior to the next round of precipitation from the aformentioned system.
Next upper level trough digs across the southern Plains tonight, with snow spreading into the area from the southwest. Current thinking is the snow spreading into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during the evening hours, making it to the highway 65 corridor by midnight and over the rest of the forecast area between 06Z-09Z.
Light snow will persist where the low cloud deck stays intact.
239 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday): A cold front will continue to move eastward generally through the region this afternoon and evening. Limited upper ascent will also keep any severe threat on the lower end of the scale.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale troughing encompasses much of NOAM along with an intrusion of very cold air through the central and southern CONUS. Plenty of over water instability with lake-H8 delta-Ts in the lower 20s, lake induced CAPE values of 400-600 J/Kg per BufKit forecast soundings and inversion heights around 5K feet. Short term models have come into better agreement that the next in the seemingly never ending series of low pressure systems moving by to our south will take a track farther east sparing the region from much if any synoptic precipitation.
707 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 A cooler and drier airmass is temporarily holding over the area this evening as the recent front is stalled across southern Florida.
with the highest amounts expected to be from south central toward east central Oklahoma.
536 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Summary: Getting warmer, but still cold enough for wind chill advisories before a little snow arrives.
741 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 High pressure and dry weather will remain over the region through Wednesday afternoon then again yield to the next low pressure system.
Increasing 290-300 K isentropic ascent ahead of the H700 trough will be the driver for snowfall, with the consensus suite coming into better alignment on the placement of the snowfall across the area-- with really no overall changes to the going forecast. Should there be enough solar insolation, convective temperatures look to quickly be reached, with the highest (token) MLCAPE values being south and east of the Turnpike.
Generally 1 to 4 inches are expected, with the higher amounts along the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders. High temps on Wednesday will only warm into the low 20s.
552 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 We're slowly breaking free of the record cold airmass that had overtaken most of the Lower 48. Soundings also suggest weakened stability above the 700 mb layer, so cannot completely rule out a bit more intensification than some of the higher resolution models suggest. The 500 mb trough axis will take it's time moving eastward, and could keep at very light snow or flurries across areas east of I-29 through mid-afternoon.
Any remaining snow flurry activity will end this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region and brings much drier air over the region. This bubble of arctic high pressure will lead to bitterly cold temperatures overnight as skies should be partly to mostly clear with light/calm winds by mid evening. This high will remain in place into Wednesday with highs limited to the teens to around 20 once again with lows then holding in the single digits on Wednesday night as cloud cover increases in advance of the next storm system.
448 PM MST Tue Feb 16 2021 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough covering the CONUS. Surface map shows high pressure to the east and low pressure to the southwest.
We got perhaps a couple of degrees warmer than forecast, despite the cloud cover and flurries, most likely due to some mechanical mixing from stronger south winds today, allowing for mixing of some slightly warmer air just off the surface.
208 PM PST Tue Feb 16 2021 Locally breezy north winds today will diminish a bit Wednesday as low pressure shifts slowly east out of the area.
A low amplitude trough, currently near the Four Corners, will amplify and dig as it approaches the Southern Plains. Snowfall will approach central Oklahoma by late afternoon and should persist through the evening/overnight hours as 500 mb trough/vort max moves through. Given the track of the 500 mb trough, western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma may become dry slotted with the areas farther to the north (perhaps near I-40) remaining in the comma head. At least light snow may persist through Wednesday until the mid-level trough axis exits the area. The higher amounts appear most likely across east-central to southeast Oklahoma with lower amounts far northwest and far southwest.
Also, light freezing rain will develop at the southern terminals this evening, between 00-09Z. A cold front will move south, switching the winds to the north at the KABI/KBBD sites by Wednesday morning.
An additional weak disturbance will produce a few afternoon snow flurries on Wednesday, before warmer and drier weather arrives for the end of the week.
Forecast soundings indicate that low and mid- level saturation will continue in the higher terrain overnight, which will support some occasional light orographic snow showers. We have therefore adjusted the precipitation/liquid forecast downward slightly on Wednesday from the model consensus blends - still supporting snow to fall, but for accumulations generally an inch or two or less in the higher elevations. Afternoon highs will run near or perhaps a degree or two cooler on Wednesday compared to Tuesday as the overall large- scale trough over the Rockies pushes just a smidge farther south and heights/mid-level temps cool slightly.
A freezing rain/snow mixture possible BNA/MQY 17/18Z-17/24Z.
Short term models continue to indicate a mid-level trough moving from the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle tonight and into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.
Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday): A cold front will continue to move eastward generally through the region this afternoon and evening. Limited upper ascent will also keep any severe threat on the lower end of the scale.
Anywhere from 8 to 12 inches of new snow has fallen in these areas (upwards of 2 feet in the highest terrain), and snow is expected to persist for the remainder of today and through Wednesday morning.
554 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 All sites excluding LRD expected to see LIFR conditions from around 00z this evening to 12z Wednesday morning as a nearby coastal trough brings a low stratus deck into the area. Have extended the potential for freezing drizzle south to include ALI and CRP as temperatures have not warmed up as previously expected and are still below freezing.
408 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 A cold front pushed through the Lower Keys over the past couple of hours, with temperatures dropping 10 degrees and dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s. Visibile satellite imagery highlights a thin rope cloud across Vaca Key, marking the leading edge of the cooler and drier air. High pressure will build across the western North Atlantic Wednesday and Wednesday night, with freshening southeast breezes returning to the Keys.
547 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 A very weak disturbance/upper trough in northwesterly flow will pass across the local area this evening.
354 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Where skies have remained clear, temperatures have managed to claw their way just above freezing across most of the area this afternoon although there are still a few sites reporting sub freezing temperatures. Forecast soundings continue to depict a well defined warm nose in place from 3kft to 10kft making freezing rain the predominant precip type although some sleet or snow could work its way to the surface.
Further east, soundings are supportive of freezing rain and sleet across the northwest Hill Country, mainly after midnight. However, another cold front will move into the area from the north. This, along with widespread cloud cover, will keep high temperatures at or just below freezing again.
440 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 A very weak disturbance/upper trough in northwesterly flow will pass across the local area this evening.
640 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Slight adjustments made for temperature grid in northeastern ND, where temperatures in the northern valley are several degrees warmer than Langdon and other areas to the west. another cold night with frigid wind chills but far warmer than the last week to week and a half have been.