Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
One final weak short wave will rotate around the base of the upper trough pushing through the area tonight. The upper trough finally moves out of the area overnight and into Friday morning, along with any lingering light snow. Behind the trough, some subtle upper ridging will lead to subsidence, clearing skies, and a chilly Friday morning. The coldest lows will be out west in the single digits above zero, with widespread readings in the lower teens across the rest of the area.
229 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Effects from a powerful storm system off of the New England coast, and cold high pressure ridging southward continues to affect the sensible weather across the southern states. A strong wind field around this system and cold air still filtering southward around it was making it a slow go at temperature modification (warmer conditions) even with nearly unlimited solar insolation.
As was suspected, the surge of colder temperatures was quicker than guidance suggested with the freezing line near the I-29 corridor as of mid afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to show a pronounced warm nose aloft behind these below freezing surface temperatures with a mix of freezing rain and/or sleet being reported. This whole transition zone will continue to shift eastward with time with each location seeing a temporal transition of rain to freezing rain/sleet to snow. With this said, elevated objects such as trees, power lines, and bridges quickly iced over once surface temperatures dropped below freezing. Broad ridging arrives as we approach the second half of the weekend which will help moderate temperatures back closer to normal.
1258 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions again today.
354 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Latest surface analysis revealed a 1021mb high over Indiana with the ridge axis southwest across the Lower Mississippi Valley and north central Gulf and 1001mb low lee of the Rockies. In addition, ridge axis was present from northwest Gulf of Mexico to Wisconsin. Upper level cyclonic will continue to rotate over the northern Rockies with the trough axis pushing east through Friday. The weak wave over Texas will weaken and push east over the Lower Mississippi Valley and forecast area.
Otherwise, there will be an increase in high clouds over area today as upper ridge begins to move east of the area. Despite the increasing cloud cover today the high temperatures will be slightly warmer and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early April. The chance of showers along with a few storms will gradually increase tonight and Friday across the entire area as an upper level trough moves eastward into the northern Plains sending a cold front slowly southeastward into northeast and central MO by Friday afternoon. The highest chance of rain on Friday will be across northeast and central MO along with the highest QPF.
Mid and upper level ridging will slowly move east overnight into the day on Friday. Rain chances look meager at best this weekend, as a weak cold front approaches the Mid State.
The freezing drizzle this morning plus the snow also combined for travel impacts across the area in the winter weather advisory zones. Friday low temperatures will fall into the upper single digits to low teens across much of the region, even colder in the high mountains. With a bit more sun Friday afternoon, temperatures will rebound to above freezing.
A weak mid level short wave trough will move out of the Hill Country this morning and into south-central Texas north of the Victoria Crossroads this afternoon.
High pressure across the area will lead to a clear sky and light winds tonight. Ridge will continue to build in as we move through the weekend allowing temperatures to slowly climb and lead to a pleasant weekend across the area.
a layer of drier air resided within the low levels which was keeping this precip from reaching the surface. the gusty southerly winds will continue ahead of a cold front.
Increasing cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures in the 50s as a cold front begins to progress eastward from the Plains. A few showers are possible late tonight in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel Friday morning but will struggle to overcome the remaining high pressure.
Cold front continues to work east into western MN this morning, with a wealth of cold air sweeping in behind the front. However, east of there much warm air aloft continues, and that warmer air aloft is only expected to advect slowly east during the day.
1244 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure extending from Ontario to the Tennessee Valley will drift east across the local area today through early Friday.
325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Slow evolving upper level pattern with pseudo Omega Block as southeast Michigan resides underneath the ridge over the next couple of days.
Tonight's temperatures will be the lowest of the week with a mix of low teens and single digits. Also, the longwave trough is still overhead which could provide enough instability to keep fog formation at bay.
From tonight through Friday, the upper level trough just east of the Rocky Mountains will continue its slow eastward progression. A strong cold front will move through the region from late Friday morning through Friday evening. On Friday night, cannot rule the possibility that some bridges may become icy.
459 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Gusty northwest winds will persist through Friday evening thanks to a potent, meandering low pressure system off the Atlantic Coast. A few light showers will be possible Friday afternoon as the low moves closer to the coast.
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an moderately amplified pattern in place across the Nation with a cutoff low spinning off the East coast, and a large synoptic trough dominating the western mountainous region; resulting in a bit of ridging over the Plains States today. The progress of the front wont be very fast, owing to the main trough hanging back, which will likely result in the front taking through late Friday morning to move into eastern Missouri. Specifically, for Late this afternoon, Tonight, and Friday, we expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to fill in and become more widespread ahead of and behind the advancing cold front as the isotropic assent leading the cold front is replaced by undercutting cold air, and more overriding type precipitation across eastern Kansas and far western and northwestern Missouri.
As you have probably noticed, a cold front is moving through the area. Various precipitation types are being observed currently such as light snow in Norfolk, mist and unknown precip type in Columbus, and freezing rain in Broken Bow. A significant warm layer from the 850 to 700 mb level will result in most of the precipitation either falling as freezing drizzle or sleet. For the most part, the progression of precipitation will go from rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, and then snow.
Mid level clouds and gusty southerly winds will continue to overspread the CWA this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the northwest. a layer of drier air resided within the low levels which was keeping this precip from reaching the surface. the gusty southerly winds will continue ahead of a cold front.
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather conditions into tonight and Friday.
However, we will remain under troffing aloft and below normal heights. As trof continues to move east we should see some snow showers over our northwest (and maybe near Billings) late tomorrow night.
The bulk of this band has fallen as graupel and sleet, but some freezing rain and snow is also embedded. High pressure pushes in behind this system tonight and Friday bringing drier conditions. The upper trough over the Dakotas will result in much below average temperatures through the short term. To start things off, high pressure will be situated over the eastern CWA, but as the day progresses, the high moves east and the area will be under return flow that will be somewhat breezy with about a 12-15mb gradient across the state. A secondary wave will drop out of Canada and pivot around an upper low, but looks to stay in North Dakota for the most part, while a different upper low drops into the western coast.
Very early Friday morning, another cold low pressure circulation is anticipated to move across the Northern Rockies and increase snow showers through the remainder of the day.
Winds will diminish around sunset however north winds will ramp back up later tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front moves through the area. In addition to the stronger northerly winds, MVFR ceilings should also move in behind the cold front late tonight. A broad upper trough over the western CONUS will begin to move to the east with one vort lobe in particular rotating across the northern Rockies today that will help unlock cold air quickly southward through the High Plains today and tonight. That cold front will arrive in the forecast area after midnight.
1127 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions again today.
An upper ridge will remain over the area through Friday. An increase in clouds can be expected tonight as high clouds spill over the ridge. Lows tonight fall into the low 50s inland to around 60 near the coast.
131 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure remains over the region today through Friday and provides VFR conditions with clear skies. A pattern shift is finally underway early this morning as this week's persistent midlevel troughing has shifted east. Deep layer subsidence ensues today owing to the trough's departure and to simultaneous ridge amplification just upstream. Light winds from the north keep the immediate Lake Huron shoreline a bit cooler as is typical for this time of year. A potent lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low over Alberta will move through the upper Midwest on Friday night, dampening the ridge over the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will lose upper support as the wave lifts northward into northwestern Ontario.
A skinny ridge of high pressure extends from far northern Ontario, down the length of Lake MI, and on toward IND/SDF. High pressure remains nearly stationary tonight, and only grudgingly drifts toward Lake Huron on Friday.
228 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Our stretch of above average temperatures will come to a screeching halt as a cold front works through the area late tonight. The usual cold spot across the southwest Panhandle may drop to or slightly below freezing while the rest of the area should remain above freezing but below average for this time of year. The lowest levels will remain dry so wouldn't expect much in the way of fog early tomorrow morning. Clouds and winds will gradually decrease late tomorrow morning which will lead to a nice albeit much cooler day compared to today.
231 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 The main forecast concerns will be convective potential/severity thru Friday in association with a strong cold front. A strong cold front, with Arctic roots as evidenced by obs across western Canada down into MT/Dakotas, stretched from western MN south across central KS and down into the OK Panhandle as of 18Z.
Ridging will continue to dominate across the region through tomorrow.
348 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain in control across the region tonight through Friday.
However, high clouds will clear the area and will allow better mixing to erode the lowest deck by mid afternoon and allow all sites to climb to VFR. Next issue will be the approach of a strong cold front on Friday.
Weak upper level trough caught in the flow of an upper low in northern Canada will swing through the forecast area today. The trough will bring some instability to the region, albeit less than the area has seen the past few days.
The main upper trough is now east of us, but a weak trailing trough will follow in from the northwest this afternoon with scattered snow showers in our northern areas.
(This evening through Friday) The cold front has moved into northwest Oklahoma with winds northwest at Gage and Woodward. This front will continue to move southeast and should move through quicker than the previous forecast indicated, especially with the high pressures observed in the central and northern High Plains. With the cold temperatures (mid 20s) in east central Colorado and northwest Kansas, there is the potential of getting freezing temperatures into northwest Oklahoma early Friday morning.
High pressure continues to dominate the region, resulting in dry weather and mostly clear skies for most of the forecast area which will continue through the afternoon, evening, and on into tomorrow morning. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper 40s for inland areas, with warmer temperatures occurring further to the south and in the lower 50s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.
/28/ Another beautiful day is underway across the region as high pressure remains in place. Another nice day is in store for the ArkLaMiss as high pressure remains in place at the surface while short wave ridging builds in the mid to upper levels. After a cool start to Thursday morning, temperatures will quickly rebound, maxing out in the low 70s in the north and the high 70s in the south. A few showers will be possible in the western portions of the region on Friday morning but will struggle to overcome the remaining high pressure.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Swly flow aloft continues across our area, as a trof axis moves across the Rockies. An associated developing cold front is noted across swrn KS, with a dryline bisecting W TX. A few sct shwrs are possible as we move into the overnight hours as the lower levels of the atmosphere continue to saturate, but coverage of convection will increase as the cold front approaches our area Friday.
Surface cold front has sagged into the Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon, and is poised to drop pretty quickly southward tonight. Still, even with that said, the NAM temperatures dropping and holding in the 40s tomorrow looked a little too cold and kept readings a little warmer than that. Other showers and not as strong storms will be possible farther north towards San Angelo and Brownwood as well as the low level moisture is lifted up and over the shallow cold air mass.
955 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level ridge axis centered over the lower MS River valley. A few showers were noted along a weak midlevel trof axis, extending from north central AR through eastern MO and IA, immediately upstream of the low amplitude ridge axis. Increasing cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures in the 50s as a cold front begins to progress eastward from the Plains. A few showers are possible late tonight in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel Friday morning but will struggle to overcome the remaining high pressure.
Slow evolving upper level pattern with pseudo Omega Block as southeast Michigan resides underneath the ridge over the next couple of days.
Made no major changes with lows still expected to drop to the lower 50s. Ridging will continue to dominate across the region through tomorrow.
724 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather conditions into tonight and Friday.
645 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Upper ridge has moved east of the area late this afternoon and weak moisture transport has begun over the region. This trend will continue through the night as moisture convergence increases across the area as the low level jet sets up. Expect showers and scattered thunderstorms to expand over the area on Friday and Friday night as the NAM/GFS has been consistent in bringing an upper trough across the northern CONUS that will increase ascent across Missouri and Illinois. This will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois Friday and Friday night.
High pressure is in place, with an associated dry air mass and light winds. A skinny ridge of high pressure extends from far northern Ontario, down the length of Lake MI, and on toward IND/SDF. High pressure remains nearly stationary tonight, and only grudgingly drifts toward Lake Huron on Friday.
319 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Current water vapor satellite pictures are showing the upper trough over Utah at this time. The broad upper trough is progged to continue to move east across the CWA tonight. The low level winds stay upsloping for the plains and foothills this evening, then go to drainage by dawn Friday morning. Will let the highlights going in Zones 31 & 33. For temperatures, Friday's highs will be 1-5 C warmer than today's.
Friday afternoon through Friday night, one short wave low pressure trough will have just enough energy and moisture to set off a few snow showers over central Montana, which are expected to slowly move up and through NE Montana with little impact. The responsible multi-lobed low pressure system will remain nearly stationary and pinwheel/spin over the region for the next several days. Occasionally, some warmer high pressure ridging will sneak up from the south.
716 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will build in from the north for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
High pressure will be in control overnight. Light winds and clear skies will lead to excellent radiational cooling with temperatures falling into mid to upper 40s across the interior and the low to mid 50s at the beaches. High pressure continues to dominate the region, resulting in dry weather and mostly clear skies for most of the forecast area which will continue through the afternoon, evening, and on into tomorrow morning. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper 40s for inland areas, with warmer temperatures occurring further to the south and in the lower 50s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.
1020 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will build in from the north for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Weak mid/upper level ridging will resume over the region by tomorrow, allowing temperatures to climb back up into the low to mid 80s. Weak high pressure north of the region will keep relatively light winds and calm seas over the eastern Gulf waters into the weekend with an afternoon sea breeze shifting winds near the coast.
420 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Upper ridge has moved east of the area late this afternoon and weak moisture transport has begun over the region. This trend will continue through the night as moisture convergence increases across the area as the low level jet sets up. Expect showers and scattered thunderstorms to expand over the area on Friday and Friday night as the NAM/GFS has been consistent in bringing an upper trough across the northern CONUS that will increase ascent across Missouri and Illinois. This will bring an attendant cold front across Missouri and Illinois Friday and Friday night.
657 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 (This evening through Friday) The cold front has moved into northwest Oklahoma with winds northwest at Gage and Woodward. This front will continue to move southeast and should move through quicker than the previous forecast indicated, especially with the high pressures observed in the central and northern High Plains. With the cold temperatures (mid 20s) in east central Colorado and northwest Kansas, there is the potential of getting freezing temperatures into northwest Oklahoma early Friday morning.
Elsewhere can expect lows in the lower 50s, except the more rural spots may see some upper 40s once again.
Scattered light showers and prevailing low VFR ceilings currently will trend toward prevailing MVFR ceilings overnight ahead of the approaching strong cold front. /Issued 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ The main forecast concerns will be convective potential/severity thru Friday in association with a strong cold front. A strong cold front, with Arctic roots as evidenced by obs across western Canada down into MT/Dakotas, stretched from western MN south across central KS and down into the OK Panhandle as of 18Z.
Cooler overnight lows will remain in the northeast, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s, where drier air can hang on. While there could be some in the west, much of the rest of the region will remain dry as high pressure will impede any development farther east. Highs on Friday will once again be in the lower 70s north to the mid and upper 70s south, with potential for lower 80s in the far south.
959 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Remnants of earlier boundaries remain to the south of the Lower Keys and extending to the north of Cape Sable. likely limited north of the Lower Keys in agreement with rapid refresh guidance. Light winds should allow for temperatures to fall through the lower 70s.
917 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain in control across the region tonight through Friday.
Strong cold front just now entering NW Osage County and showers and thunderstorms should also expand north across the rest of the forecast area as the front moves southeast. Scattered light showers and prevailing low VFR ceilings currently will trend toward prevailing MVFR ceilings overnight ahead of the approaching strong cold front. /Issued 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ The main forecast concerns will be convective potential/severity thru Friday in association with a strong cold front. A strong cold front, with Arctic roots as evidenced by obs across western Canada down into MT/Dakotas, stretched from western MN south across central KS and down into the OK Panhandle as of 18Z.
Effects from a powerful storm system off of the New England coast, and cold high pressure ridging southward continues to affect the sensible weather across the southern states. A strong wind field around this system and cold air still filtering southward around it was making it a slow go at temperature modification (warmer conditions) even with nearly unlimited solar insolation.
630 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain in control across the region tonight through Friday.
803 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain in control across the region tonight through Friday.
628 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an moderately amplified pattern in place across the Nation with a cutoff low spinning off the East coast, and a large synoptic trough dominating the western mountainous region; resulting in a bit of ridging over the Plains States today. The progress of the front wont be very fast, owing to the main trough hanging back, which will likely result in the front taking through late Friday morning to move into eastern Missouri. Specifically, for Late this afternoon, Tonight, and Friday, we expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to fill in and become more widespread ahead of and behind the advancing cold front as the isotropic assent leading the cold front is replaced by undercutting cold air, and more overriding type precipitation across eastern Kansas and far western and northwestern Missouri.
Will see a gradual trend to the east with snow this evening into the overnight as high pressure builds into the region. One final weak short wave will rotate around the base of the upper trough pushing through the area tonight. The upper trough finally moves out of the area overnight and into Friday morning, along with any lingering light snow. Behind the trough, some subtle upper ridging will lead to subsidence, clearing skies, and a chilly Friday morning. The coldest lows will be out west in the single digits above zero, with widespread readings in the lower teens across the rest of the area.
/issued 354 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ Latest surface analysis revealed a 1021mb high over Indiana with the ridge axis southwest across the Lower Mississippi Valley and north central Gulf and 1001mb low lee of the Rockies. In addition, ridge axis was present from northwest Gulf of Mexico to Wisconsin. Upper level cyclonic will continue to rotate over the northern Rockies with the trough axis pushing east through Friday. The weak wave over Texas will weaken and push east over the Lower Mississippi Valley and forecast area.