Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1104 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Stubborn cloud cover has lingered all day across southwestern/western MN as moisture pooled in the low levels and lead to dense fog in that area this morning. There's quite a difference in low level moisture across the forecast area with dew points this afternoon in the mid 60s across western MN and down into the low to mid 40s across parts of west central WI. Capped pops at 30% at the highest.
924 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Mostly clear skies are expected overnight under high pressure. High pressure will bring lighter winds and mostly sunny skies on Friday. Strong subsidence behind the cold front that came through last night helped to transport the smoke from the upper levels down to the ground. Quiet weather will persist through Friday night with high pressure overhead. Highs Friday will be a notch warmer than today, upper 60s near the lake and lower 70s inland.
905 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Cooler air arrives behind a cold front for Friday. The cold front has advanced southeastward all but the southeasternmost portions of the CWA. Behind the cold front, a vast gap in high cloud coverage and a waning cumulus field in the post-frontal environment should allow for partly cloudy skies for almost the entirety of the overnight before high clouds start to advance northward from the south post-sunrise.
Light and variable winds will continue due to high pressure over the area. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across south central Texas through the short term portion of the forecast period. Some drier air north of Highway 90 will result is overnight lows in the lower 60s across the Hill country.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 77 61 79 / 70 70 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 77 61 75 / 70 70 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 69 77 61 73 / 80 70 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 77 61 71 / 50 70 70 60.
644 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Stubborn cloud cover has lingered all day across southwestern/western MN as moisture pooled in the low levels and lead to dense fog in that area this morning. There's quite a difference in low level moisture across the forecast area with dew points this afternoon in the mid 60s across western MN and down into the low to mid 40s across parts of west central WI. Capped pops at 30% at the highest.
/issued 235 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):An inverted 700mb trough across the Yucatan peninsula will move westward across the Bay of Campeche and the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Thursday night. Will mention isolated showers Thursday as the seabreeze front develops across the lower Texas coast and moves inland Thurs afternoon. Highs Thurs afternoon will be a couple degrees cooler compared to the past couple of days with the increase in clouds and isolated rain chances.
709 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will slowly move off the east coast through Thursday.
/Issued 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ Latest 20z water vapor imagery shows high pressure expanding over the CO/UT/WY intersection and has shown indications of shifting eastward in time. However, residual outflow boundaries and a weak mid-level jet rounding the high pressure center may be enough to spark an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon around peak heating.
The heat returns Thursday afternoon with highs around 100F in the lower valleys. Limited moisture is available for convection, but enough to warrant a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the high terrain of Southwest Idaho Thursday afternoon.
710 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes will begin to weaken but remain able to support favorable aviation conditions tonight through most of Thursday. Leading edge of a plume of mid/upper level moisture from over the Pacific has topped western CONUS upper ridging and is being held at bay for the time being over the upper midwest, waiting for lumbering southern stream upper low over Missouri to open and head east. Any activity that does attempt to settle southeast towards area will have a difficult time surviving the very dry airmass in place with area of low/mid level ridging through at least H7.
1101 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Despite an extremely unstable airmass with uncapped SBCAPE of greater than 5000 J/kg thanks to dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, the lack of forcing has greatly limited the thunderstorm potential this evening. Water vapor imagery showing the back end of upper trough exiting eastern MN at this time. Then the HRRR tries to develop something farther to the west as the cold front moves across North Dakota and drops that into central MN after 06z. Expected temperatures will still warm through the lower 90s into sc MN ahead of boundary Not much change to the extended part of the forecast.
Again, the trend remains with lighter winds for Thursday when compared to today as high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico, however gusts up to 20 KTs will remain possible during the afternoon.
932 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Few lingering showers within cyclonic flow associated with upper level low centered over Missouri, which continues to very slowly move off to the east. Isolated showers have developed along the trof axis that was passing through northwest AR and eastern OK. Mid-level heights will build through the southern Plains in the wake of the exiting upper trof.
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Tonight-Thursday: Mild night in store with ridge over the area. Dry but warmer weather expected on Thursday as return flow slowly develops.
1023 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Made some PoP/Weather adjustments to reflect ongoing convective activity over the southern Pennyrile, as main core of MCV/bookend mesocyclone will move along and just south of KHPX before 345z. May still be too high, as 12z Canadian, 12z NAM-WRF (NMM), and 12z ECMWF suggest some ridging/capping east-southeast of low over central Missouri this evening. Main convection will be focused just ahead of the closed low in Missouri (into Southeast Missouri) and departing from the southern Pennyrile for the rest of tonight. UPDATE Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Upper Low/trof drifting across area is trigger for tapping high theta/unstable air. Main impact is locally heavy rainfall and lightning, and this will continue to be the case until the Low/trof drifts completely out of the area.
850 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Low to mid level ridge axis continues near the FL-GA border with deep easterlies across the area. Water vapor imagery indicates an upper low across the far srn FL peninsula with a dry airmass in the mid to upper levels. Otherwise little change to dry overnight forecast with lows mainly in the mid 70s with some warmer readings along the beaches. Storm coverage expected to remain below normal with ridging surface and aloft. High temps in the low/mid 90s.
1003 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Low pressure interacts with a stalled frontal boundary through tonight. The front lifts slowly northward Thursday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
757 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure to the north overnight will move off the New England coast on Thursday.
Upper level low over MO today is expected to gradually weaken and move eastward, with the trough axis passing across Middle TN tomorrow night. With plenty of deep moisture and the approaching/passing trough, the chance for locally heavy rain will continue tonight through tomorrow night.
1054 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will slowly move off the east coast through Thursday.
There is a chance for thunderstorms Thu early afternoon, but the better chance is late Thu afternoon through late Thu evening just ahead of a cold front. This seems reasonable given high instability, moderate shear, and a low-level trough moving through Thu evening. Given the projected location of the low level jet nosing into northern WI, a probable scenario is that the better supercells would develop up there and then develop into a more linear complex as it expands southeast.
809 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Despite an extremely unstable airmass with uncapped SBCAPE of greater than 5000 J/kg thanks to dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, the lack of forcing has greatly limited the thunderstorm potential this evening. Water vapor imagery showing the back end of upper trough exiting eastern MN at this time. Then the HRRR tries to develop something farther to the west as the cold front moves across North Dakota and drops that into central MN after 06z. Expected temperatures will still warm through the lower 90s into sc MN ahead of boundary Not much change to the extended part of the forecast.
Latest HRRR and new 00z NAM output is honing in on renewed convective development along and north of the I-20 Corridor overnight, or in the vicinity of the 500mb trough axis with only isolated convection where we are currently seeing renewed development south of the corridor.
Overnight lows are expected to be slightly warmer than this mornings. By morning temperatures in the valley will range from the mid 50s in the Delta to the lower to mid 60s for most interior locations. High pressure will remain over the region on Thursday with enough southwest flow to keep any thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon confined from around Alpine county and the crest to points south and east.
/26/ This Evening through Tomorrow: An upper-level low pressure system can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery spinning over Missouri this afternoon, with a few narrow bands of showers and storms where some convection has been able to organize. Most of the forecast area, however, will be dominated by subsidence from a ridge stretched out along the Gulf Coast. A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled out north of our forecast area through tomorrow afternoon as the upper low weakens and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains spreads eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area again tomorrow, with the better rain chances being focused closer to the frontal boundary and upper trough axis.
Light south wind will increase slightly from the southwest during the afternoon as high pressure gives way to the next frontal system due in the northern Great Lakes by Thursday night. Leading edge of a plume of mid/upper level moisture from over the Pacific has topped western CONUS upper ridging and is being held at bay for the time being over the upper midwest, waiting for lumbering southern stream upper low over Missouri to open and head east. Any activity that does attempt to settle southeast towards area will have a difficult time surviving the very dry airmass in place with area of low/mid level ridging through at least H7.
/Issued 932 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ Few lingering showers within cyclonic flow associated with upper level low centered over Missouri, which continues to very slowly move off to the east. Isolated showers have developed along the trof axis that was passing through northwest AR and eastern OK. Mid-level heights will build through the southern Plains in the wake of the exiting upper trof.
1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Tonight-Thursday: Mild night in store with ridge over the area. Dry but warmer weather expected on Thursday as return flow slowly develops.
741 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will slowly move off the east coast through Thursday.
524 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Storms fired along the peaks and ridges as expected late this morning into early afternoon with storms collapsing as they drift off the higher terrain. This would indicate the strong ridge of high pressure is directly overhead, limiting storms from drifting much into the valleys. Hot and dry conditions remain in place with H7 temps of 20C keeping triple digit heat in the lower valleys of southeast Utah and the Grand Valley.
There was some eastward movement with the weak upper level trough axis, but the diurnal downward trend is expected to dominate. Thunderstorms are likely Thursday evening along a cold front.
A strong upper high over the Southwest U. and an upper trough over the Pacific waters will continue for the next several days resulting in southwest flow aloft with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and dry conditions.
Lows will be mild in the lower 70s. Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure over the southeast CONUS, helping to drive this southerly flow and draw moisture into the region. Meanwhile, latest H5 analysis depicts a ridge axis over much of western CONUS, with an upper trough extending from northern Michigan southwestward to central Texas. The upper trough to the west of the region has resulted in southwesterly flow over the FA. Given the ample low level moisture, southerly flow, and cloud cover tonight, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. With highs again in the 80s on Thursday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue as the trough axis moves over the area throughout the day.
753 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Rain chances increase tonight into Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
A ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region through the upcoming weekend. Strong high pressure aloft remains in place over the interior west this evening, with the high center located near the Utah/Colorado border. The airmass remained quite warm today under this dome of high pressure, and afternoon maxes reached the triple digits across most Utah valleys below 5000 ft. With a drying trend across northwest Utah, the highest PWATs were confined across the northeastern portions of the forecast area down through the central Utah mountains. These storms are winding down now due to the loss of daytime heating as well as cooler temperatures resulting from the various outflow boundaries. Otherwise, temperatures will remain on the hot side for the rest of the week with the ridge remaining steadfast.
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Upper Low/trof drifting across area is trigger for tapping high theta/unstable air. Main impact is locally heavy rainfall and lightning, and this will continue to be the case until the Low/trof drifts completely out of the area.
/issued 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ There is an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with an upper low over Missouri. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the mid 90s across the Permian Basin. The upper ridge builds more east on Thursday resulting in northeast flow aloft over the CWA. Models are indicating possible precipitation along the Lower Trans Pecos to the Davis Mountains and Big Bend area Thursday afternoon.
622 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow aloft across the Central High Plains as a upper-level ridge builds across the western CONUS, stretching from the Four Corners region into British Columbia and Alberta.
/Issued 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ Upper level trof extending from southwest Missouri into southwest Texas will bisect the area into Thursday. Upper ridge centered over the western U. will begin to expand eastward forcing the trof to the east as the week progresses. With the upper trof overhead along with weak diffluence aloft. As mentioned for Thursday, the upper level ridge to our west will start to build into the region, pushing the upper level trough eastward and creating a deformation zone across the region. Center of upper high will continue to slowly expand eastward into the weekend though the center will remain to our west. with the upper high anchored to our west the hottest temperatures will also stay to our west.
912 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Convection has basically ended south of the Ridge Axis across NE FL except for a few isolated showers, while north of the Ridge Axis across SE GA will see widely scattered showers and storms linger until midnight as outflows bounce around against each other for the next couple of hours. 500mb ridge axis will remain centered a couple hundred miles east of the region through Thursday, with the ridge axis extending across the Florida/Georgia border. The low/mid level ridge axis across north central Florida today will move northward across northeast Florida on Thursday. Models indicate as the ridge shifts northward that drier air will move into north central and portions of northeast Florida on Thursday, with precipitable water values of 1.
Regional radar reveals low pressure spinning in Missouri, with scattered showers spiraling around it. A slow-moving closed low over Missouri today will weaken as it drifts eastward tonight and Thursday, to a position along the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon.
839 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Rain chances increase tonight into Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
933 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will continue moving off the New England coast tonight into Thursday.
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Upper Low/trof drifting across area is trigger for tapping high theta/unstable air. Main impact is locally heavy rainfall and lightning, and this will continue to be the case until the Low/trof drifts completely out of the area.
1034 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and east winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge lies across the northern half of the Sunshine State. A steady, light to gentle east wind will keep low temperatures predominately in the lower 80s. With the western Atlantic ridge lifting into central and north Florida, winds have increased and a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline is in place.
1119 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow aloft across the Central High Plains as a upper-level ridge builds across the western CONUS, stretching from the Four Corners region into British Columbia and Alberta.
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is moving south with the cold front at 20 mph, affecting areas generally east of Hwy 281. The cold front is expected to slow down and some patchy fog is developing along and S of the front. Model soundings indicate a shallow moisture profile and capping aloft near I-35, so the cold front is not expected to generate any new convection. Afternoon winds are expected to peak before 21z, and light downsloping over southern counties may wind up creating a warmer afternoon than the prefrontal one yesterday.
355 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Today: upper level ridge that has been dominating the weather pattern most of the week across South Florida gradually shifts east into the Atlantic waters this weekend.
Upper low situated off the WA/OR coast will keep us in a broad, moist southwesterly flow aloft through most of the short-term period. Strong forcing is on the way with a powerful cold front moving through this afternoon.
405 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Line of sh/ts outrunning the actual cold front this morning by about 100 miles. The cold front is still back in Texas from SE Oklahoma to just west of San Antonio at 08z. The cold front should be through the area before daylight Saturday.
335 AM PDT Fri May 12 2017 Warmer through Saturday, with daytime temperatures near normal.
Should see a band of shower and thunderstorms develop along the deformation zone north of the track of the upper low invof of the stationary boundary. As the day progresses the airmass will destabilize as the cold air aloft associated with the upper low moves over a relatively warm and moist boundary layer. By late this afternoon as the upper low tracks into NW Mississippi rain chances will diminish across Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Kept fairly high pops going across Northeast Mississippi into the evening hours as the upper low does not exit into Alabama until after midnight.
Instability has diminished significantly, although several convective clusters will persist through the night, and the cold front is still just west of the area. Additional SHRA/TSRA have developed along/near a cold front west of ktyr, which prompts the continuance of a -RA VCTS mention for a few hours. Have tried to time the convection with this TAF cycle at each site, trying to take into consideration additional precip development along the cold front. A second band of storms is developing along the cold front in Western Arkansas and into Southeast Oklahoma. Southern portions of this cold front can also be seen on regional radar mosiacs to the east and southeast of the DFW Metroplex.
351 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 An elongated area of high pressure extends from Minnesota down towards the panhandle of Texas.
A cold front in eastern Washington is moving slowly but surely toward the Northern Rockies this morning, as evident by increasing shower activity in northwest Montana ahead of this system.
Expect MVFR to near IFR conditions to develop the rest of tonight into early Friday morning as low level moisture increases along and ahead of a weak cold front moving into the northern ranchlands Fri morning. Patchy fog not out of the question tonight as a weak cold front approaches the region and winds become light, especially across the coastal counties where the better moisture is. Robust dew points in the lower 70s and diminishing winds will support at least light fog development overnight and near dawn, especially near the coast, so included a mention of it in the forecast. The arrival of a weak cold front is anticipated Friday during the day, with an influx of drier air behind it. Reflecting the lower dew points, low temperatures Friday night will dip into the 60s for most interior areas.
326 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 The upper low that brought storms the last 2 days is moving away from central Oklahoma early this morning.
Meanwhile further northwest, a weak trough of low pressure currently extending from central Wisconsin to eastern Iowa may trigger a few light showers this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s. Prevailing upper trough over the Great Lakes will begin to shift eastward over the weekend, resulting in rising upper heights and warming temperatures across central Illinois. A weak wave is expected to slide southeastward along the back side of the departing trough on Saturday: however, any light precip associated with this feature will remain well to the northeast near Lake Michigan.
446 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 A frontal boundary across NC will slowly move southward and into the northern Midlands this afternoon as low pressure over the Lower MS Valley tracks eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will begin this afternoon with low pressure and a cold front crossing the area Saturday.
All of this is occurring ahead of a cold front that will begin moving in from the north during the afternoon and evening.
349 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 A cool day is in store for today as weak northwesterly surface flow will continue as the upper level low that brought us severe thunderstorms mid-week continues to push off to the east.
1221 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 VFR with N winds of 10-15 knots behind a departing upper low. /issued 145 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ The upper low that has been a big part of our forecast for the last several days is moving eastward across western Oklahoma. A few showers and thunderstorms on the backside of the low are moving southeastward across the eastern Panhandle and could clip the northeastern zones this afternoon; however, we should be all clear by 00Z. Cooler air is already filtering in behind the low with low level cold advection expected to persist into Friday.
407 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 We'll experience one more rain-free day, under the influence of high pressure.
623 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will drift east across the Lower Ohio Valley today into tonight.