Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Forecast on track as some warmer air advects into the region. By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been pretty common of late. A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by an increase in cloud cover.
1113 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CLOUD OVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
937 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015 HERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. THIS ONE IS WEAKER AS THE RIDGE BULGES INLAND PRODUCING WARM ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER WEST.
1/2 TO 1 INCH HAS BEEN COMMON ON GRASSY AREAS AS OF 05Z WITH LARGER AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM. CLEARING LINE SHOWING UP ON POOR MANS SATELLITE CURRENTLY ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ALSO ALONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
111 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEIGHT OF THE STORM OCCURRING AT 06Z WITH HVY SNOW FALLING OVR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AT NOSE OF LL JET. ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SLEET/FZRA MIX FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD BTWN 07Z-08Z. WITH LOCAL AMTS ARND 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BEFORE CHANGEOVER. TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM.
1247 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
448 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOME SUN FELT THAT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE WAS PRUDENT.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON SUNDAY. DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MAKING FOR A WINDY COOLER DAY.
The high reflectivities on the radars appear due to very large wet snowflakes, as opposed to intense precip.
/ISSUED 849 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE TO START THE WEEKEND AS MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S. BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER.
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOW RESIDING EAST OF THE REGION. WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST STRUGGLES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 30S. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD. BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015 A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. Have trended a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid 30s. A winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure past few runs.
Quick moving deep h5 low and surface cyclone will reach northern MO by 12z Sunday, with a small chance of rain NW of the Ohio late tonight.
1048 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015 SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM ABOUT MILES CITY TO BAKER. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES WARMER AIR ALOFT THIS DIRECTION AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS MIX IT DOWN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA WEAKENS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF. LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
/ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ SUNNY SKIES ARE MAKING THINGS QUITE BRIGHT OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM BELOW FREEZING AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL YESTERDAY TO THE BALMY MID 40S ACROSS THE SNOW-LESS GROUND IN BEAVER COUNTY OKLAHOMA. THE START OF THE WORK WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL U.
Sided closer to the MOS guidance which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by 06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas. Temps Sunday are looking cooler than previously forecast.
A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES +32F WITH GROUND/ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES SUB-FREEZING. ACTUAL ROAD SURFACES LAG BEHIND AND COULD STILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FAR WEST AROUND 12 UTC.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. WINDS WILL RETURN NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS AS A SECOND COLD FRONT NEARS. /ISSUED 252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
A few locations may even cool into the lower 20s, especially in any river valleys or near area lakes.
The surface cold front is currently moving through the area and will clear the area by around sunrise.
850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.
1238 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
BUT SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP YET ON BRIDGES AND BACK ROADS AS TEMPS DIP BELOW FREEZING. WITH SOME LOCAL 2 INCH AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 1/2 TO 1 INCH HAS BEEN COMMON ON GRASSY AREAS AS OF 05Z WITH LARGER AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM. CLEARING LINE SHOWING UP ON POOR MANS SATELLITE CURRENTLY ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ALSO ALONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES.
148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015 SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
158 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL EXPAND INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE START TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARM UP THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE BRINGS IN WARMER WEATHER. THE DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TO BRING THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN.
HOISTED CAUTION FOR VERMILION BAY TNITE AS UPPER TROF SWEEPS THRU. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AHEAD OF AN H5 TROF AXIS WILL END FOR THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST ON A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT. DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROF WHICH IS MOVING ALONG TO THE SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD 25 MPH. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER E TX AND LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING TROF AND FRONT MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS.
1139 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 959 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS JUST NOW ENTERING NW AL. AREA SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE CLOSE TO FREEZING FROM THE SFC TO ~500 MB. 5 INCH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR A SLOW FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT (30-34 F). AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT AND DUE TO PRECIPITATION LIKELY REMAINING ON THE ROADWAYS, THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
402 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING.
243 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015 An upper level trough is pushing off to the east towards the east coast early this morning. Behind the trough mostly sunny and warmer conditions will occur today. Highs will range from the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to upper 50s across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas this afternoon. The better moisture and energy with this system will remain to the east of the area, but there should be enough lift across the eastern Ozarks to squeeze out some sprinkles or light rain on Sunday as the trough moves through the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with an increase in cloud cover and the light rain moving through the area. Also, a cooler air mass will start to spread south later in the day as the trough passes through the region.
GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH UPPER LVL TROUGH NOW POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE AT THIS TIME. WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DEFINE THIS HIGHER SNOW AREA YET. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING BANDS OF 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
AS TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT ARE PROGRESSIVELY WARMER THAN AHEAD OF IT DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. ESPECIALLY THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM/RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS. SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE GENERATION REGION REMAIN CLEAR AS A BELL AT THIS HOUR AND THE HIGH RES MODELS WERE EARLIER DEVELOPING THE CLOUDS EVEN BY THIS TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST WITH BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS NEARLY MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWEST LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO GET RAIN TO THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL LIKELY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE ACCOMPANYING BRISK WINDS. AS THE MAIN RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THEN BREAKS DOWN MID/LATE WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
117 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU THE FA TOWARD EVENING. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
A brief period of freezing rain is also possible at KBZN/KHLN/KLWT, however forecast confidence remains low so have not added -FZRA to the TAF. An upper level ridge, currently centered along the West Coast, gradually shifts inland through the weekend.
445 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 RAIN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 73 49 73 / 0 20 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 70 45 69 / 0 0 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 38 71 45 69 / 0 10 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 68 39 67 / 0 0 10 10.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE AND EXPECTED TO CROSS THE DISTRICT LATER TODAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GENERALLY ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WARM UPPER ZONAL FLOW AND EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
346 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
550 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST.
125 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
Low level mstr field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of low pressure. By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Noticeably cooler N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees.
351 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A QUASI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THREE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THEN WEAKEN AS THEY SLIDE SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
LOCATION WILL VARY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH.
517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1043 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015 A vigorous cold front will arrive early Tuesday. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. JW 06Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Expect the atmosphere to destabilize Tuesday afternoon as colder air aloft moves in behind the cold front.
456 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A MID LEVEL INVERSION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND COLDER AIR COMING WITH THE TROUGH.
320 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015 A weak dry cold front will pass from northwest to southeast across central IL early this morning, with breezy southwest winds shifting to northwest. Little cold air is resident behind the front with a large scale ridge and warm air mass building into the northern Plains and Midwest.
353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALL TODAY. THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT.
636 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
631 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT. LOW PASSES NORTH WITH COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK.
402 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. SOME LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LARGELY OWING TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WITH COOLER READINGS EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH AFTER PASSAGE OF LOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THOUGH.
640 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE.
249 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND DEL NORTE COUNTY. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
504 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER. THOUGH WITH THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED IS A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ATTM.