Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low remains centered over East Idaho per satellite imagery. A low pressure system will move out of the central Idaho mountains and through the upper snake highlands near Island Park tonight. Precipitation will wrap around the backside of the low and slide through the northern much but not all of eastern Idaho tonight.
Should be enough wind in the lower levels tonight to limit any fog development. Low pressure and an associated cold front will remain to our west with the LLJ and mid level energy focusing precip to our west and northwest. We will remain within the warm sector with 925 temps reaching the lower 20s celsius. So highs will be in the 80s with some cooler temps evolving as onshore component takes shape.
1036 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure builds in overnight. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and stall over the area by Saturday evening.
Satellite imagery shows a low-level cumulus deck moving northward along the lower TX coast near Brownsville. Elsewhere clear skies prevail and will be mostly clear throughout the area overnight as high pressure aloft remains in control of the weather pattern. /issued 235 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas tonight will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA. The upper level ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday into Sat night.
High pressure is centered well to our east with a summer-like southerly flow bringing warm air and higher dew points into Middle Tennessee.
1021 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. A weak trough was over central NC. A lee trough within a very weak surface pattern east of the Appalachians will get overwhelmed by both high pressure over the central Appalachians and the cyclonic flow around Jose.
Should be enough wind in the lower levels tonight to limit any fog development.
A trough of low pressure was located over the Upper Midwest early this morning. As the trough axis progresses farther southeast, winds in the lowest 5kft will gradually veer toward the northwest. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the single digits to middle teens above zero.
Temperatures are running in the low to mid 50s. This afternoon, a broad upper level trough was noted across the Plains and Upper Midwest. We'll continue to see mid and upper level height falls tonight, with the upper trough axis moving over the Ohio Valley on Monday. The trough deepens slightly as it swings into the region tonight. Deepest moisture continues to push south and east, so have the highest QPF over the Bluegrass region (still less than a tenth of an inch). Highs should range from the mid/upper 30s in the north to the low/mid 40s in the south.
A ridge of high pressure anchored off the West coast will bring dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures to the central California interior through at least next Sunday. The latest model ensembles forecast a strong upper level ridge of high pressure to remain parked off the West coast for at least another 7 to 10 days. The ridge is effectively halting the eastward movement of moisture laden storm systems originating in the central and western Pacific. About the best we can hope for is an occasional cold frontal passage that slides southward out of British Columbia. By the time these Canadian cold fronts reach our latitude, they weaken and dry out.
254 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will shift into the Ozarks from the north late this afternoon and this evening.
1003 AM MST Sun Jan 28 2018 Current surface analysis shows cold front south of the forecast area, with high pressure over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows ridge along the west coast, with strong northwest flow extending from southwest Canada into the northern and central Plains. Highs today will range from the upper teens over far northwest SD to the low to mid 30s over northeast WY.
Many models and BUFKIT soundings show an intrusion of warm air aloft ahead of a warm front expected to move through later tomorrow. This warm air may be sufficient enough to allow some melting of falling ice particles, and with surface temperatures still expected to be below freezing, mixed precipitation will be possible.
High pressure will bring a strong warming trend over the next several days with record or near record high temperatures possible Monday.
Otherwise, cloud trends and cooler temperatures will be the main forecast concern for the afternoon hours. High pressure edges into the region tonight into Monday with clouds decreasing late.
A weak backdoor cold front will move into southeast plains late tonight with just a few degrees of cooling to near normal temperatures on Monday.
Low pressure continues over the northern gulf with distinct circulation noted in the reflectivity signatures. Trough that extends north has a bit more amplitude within the last hour but still skeptical that we will be able to close off a secondary circulation as the NAM12 suggests. Any cooler temps would be occurring after Monday night.
Unfortunately, had to update the current zone forecast for areas east of the I-65 corridor for this afternoon as better forcing to the west continues to dive southeast across the lower MS and eastern LA enhancing the coverage of precip over eastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon. High rain chances continue today, mainly across the eastern half of the area as a weak area of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf and a cold front approaches from the northwest. The rain will end from northwest to southeast this evening as the cold front moves across. Clouds and rain will hold temps in the low to mid 60s in most areas today. Skies will gradually clear tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s inland to around 50 near the coast.
Upper trough west of the area is providing southwest to west flow aloft with fairly high moisture through the column. A cold front down the Appalachian Chain crossed the central Gulf coast. Atlantic high pressure ridges in across FL. Low pressure in the Gulf this morning and high pressure ridging in from the east will maintain southeast winds.
With the center of the high well to our east on Monday, lower tropospheric winds will take on a greater southerly or southwest trajectory which will allow for warmer high temperatures. We foresee highs in the upper 20s over our far east, but lower to mid 40s are possible over the higher terrain of southwest Nebraska.
High rain chances continue today, mainly across the eastern half of the area as a weak area of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf and a cold front approaches from the northwest. The rain will end from northwest to southeast this evening as the cold front moves across. Clouds and rain will hold temps in the low to mid 60s in most areas today. Skies will gradually clear tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s inland to around 50 near the coast.
238 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 A ridge of high pressure that was centered across south central Canada this afternoon, will continue to build southeast across the Upper Midwest through Monday night. Temperatures overnight are dependent on the amount of cloud cover continuing, which means if less cloud cover occurs, temperatures will be several degrees cooler than forecast.
A cold front will move across AR tonight, and will bring some VFR ceilings, while very patchy MVFR ceilings at times. The cold front tonight will bring northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph. To the northwest, a cold front over MO to KS will gradually move southeast in the next 24 hours and move through AR. It will also bring a northwest wind flow and cooler temperatures. The cooler air mass on Monday, highs will mainly be in the 40s to 50s. Today Through Monday Night Cold front was situated just to the SE of the FA early this mrng. Weak ridge of high pres wl briefly take control of our wx today, before shifting S of the area tngt.
Meanwhile, cold advection is occurring behind a diffuse cold front positioned over northern WI. As high pressure over the northern Plains moves towards the region over the next 24 hours, light snow and cloud trends are the main the forecast concerns. Flattened upper troughing will remain in place across the western Great Lakes. Enhanced moisture along low level trough will gradually shift southeast through the evening and exit overnight.
225 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure will result in dry conditions today. Cooler temperatures arrive Monday.
1219 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will drop across the lower Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Model soundings still show plenty of dry air in the low-levels initially, so only expect increasing mid- level clouds through much of the day. While much of the CWA will remain dry from this frontal passage, model soundings show saturation deepening into the low-levels across far northeast KS by late afternoon into this evening. before the mid-level trough advances into the eastern U. Models show the next mid-level trough skimming across the northwestern U.
The lower clouds are found behind a cold front that is moving through the forecast area. The other concern for today is the high temperatures. We are still warmer than the current forecast high for the northern part of the area.
Warmer temperatures and dry conditions in store through midweek.
Passing cold front now east of area but lingering moisture/showers continue to hang behind on the plateau. Passing cold front now east but showers and lower cigs/vsbys continue to linger behind.
Light and variable winds early will trend light S/SW through the afternoon, as high pressure moves to near Kansas City, and weak return flow commences. Another strong temperature gradient will result Monday afternoon, with the eastern zones in the recirculated polar airmass struggling to get into the lower 40s. Highs will vary from the lower 40s at Hays to the upper 50s at Elkhart.
A weak cold front will move across the area on Monday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country. Expect afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50's north to the lower to mid 60s south.
Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures are the rule with many spots in the 60s to the lower 70s. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure either overhead or along the coast will remain the dominate feature through at least the next 10 days. Combined with a flow favoring offshore winds, temperatures will be warmer than normal both at the coast and inland.
A ridge set up off the west coast of the United States will keep the region under northwesterly flow through next Sunday.
129 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure will result in dry conditions today. Cooler temperatures arrive Monday.
1130 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 An arctic cold front will become stationary from northwest to southeast across the area today. Warmer readings near 40 degrees can be expected south and west of the front across far southwest Nebraska and the panhandle.
Modest CAA behind the front will make for a cooler day today with highs in the mid 30s across the north to the lower 50s across the south. CAA will continue Sunday night into Monday making for a very cool start to the work week with highs in the low to mid 30s.
Low pressure and trough to progress south of the area over portions of SE GA through this evening and into the overnight period. Although most of the significant moderate rain will shift out of the area, low clouds and drizzle will be locked in as winds remain NNE on the back side of the low.
However, expanding our view, much colder air has invaded the Midwest as a cold Canadian high pressure was advancing southeastward.
Trends the next few hours will be IFR to LIFR then becoming MVFR this evening as precipitation ends and cold front exits.
Added a mention of light snow/flurries this afternoon, mainly across the Cheyenne Ridge. Light snow will accumulate in the mountains, but do not expect any accumulation across the lower elevations. Lee trough lays just east of a line from Douglas to Torrington to Broadwater this morning. As for Arlington, we are starting to see winds increasing there as well with Halleck Ridge gusting to 55 mph. Gradients begin to ease after 15Z this morning and do expect the High Wind Warnings to end at 10 AM.
To the northwest, a cold front over MO to KS will gradually move southeast in the next 24 hours and move through AR. It will also bring a northwest wind flow and cooler temperatures. The cooler air mass on Monday, highs will mainly be in the 40s to 50s. Today Through Monday Night Cold front was situated just to the SE of the FA early this mrng. Weak ridge of high pres wl briefly take control of our wx today, before shifting S of the area tngt.
1159 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure continues to build into the region behind a weaker secondary cold front, and winds starting to set up more northwesterly. Cooler air will counter the sunshine today and keep the highs moderate overall. Early morning surface map showed the next cold front not too far to our northwest, across southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa. GFS forecast soundings are fairly moist most of the way up, while the NAM is limiting most of the moisture to about the lowest 5,000 feet of atmosphere. Bumped up PoP's a bit due to the strength of the energy coming in, though snow amounts still look on the lower side, mainly a dusting.
147 PM MST Sun Jan 28 2018 Latest analysis shows the upper trough that brought light snow to parts of the area today is shifting off to the east and the western CONUS ridge builds eastward. Flurries will remain possible over parts of western and central SD into the early evening but then synoptic scale subsidence associated with the upper trough building in from the west should bring an end to any precipitation for the rest of the night.
850mb temps will decrease from around -16C now to around -20C by 00Z Tue, but high pressure will be moving in from the W at the same time.
1218 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Rain gradually ends today as a cold front passes.
Cold front passes tonight w/ thickening cloud cover for NE OK into NW AR.
Otherwise, high pressure on Sunday will lead to dry weather conditions before a stationary frontal boundary eventually pushes east as a warm front on Monday.
1017 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Low cloud cover across our southern and southeast zones being a little stubborn to burn off this morning but with the higher sun angle and with drier low level air continuing to slowly push south and east during the afternoon, we should be able to burn this shallow cloud deck back some later today.
High pressure gradually weakens thereafter allowing temperatures to cool slightly beyond the middle of the week, although still remaining above average. A strong upper level ridge continues to blanket the western states today, yielding lots of sun and very warm temperatures. During the next 24 hours, the ridge axis will be tipping eastward, which will precipitate an increase in the surface pressure gradient across southern Arizona. Afternoon temperatures will continue to run quite warm, under the ridge with near record H5 height values. While the ridge gets suppressed a bit mid-week, it will remain and possibly regains its strength heading into the weekend. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: High pressure situated to the north and east will continue to favor northeasterly winds at area terminals, with no westerly shift anticipated through at least late Monday.
415 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Fair weather with light wind will occur across the region late today through most or all of Monday under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure.
Will need to determine if SCA needs to be reissued for the offshore waters for late tonight/early Monday morning as high pressure builds into the area.
At 3 AM, a cold front was draped from Lake Huron southwestward through northern Michigan and across southern Wisconsin and into northern Iowa. Temperatures across eastern Iowa ranged from the mid 20s along the Highway 20 corridor to the lower 30s in far southeastern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west central Illinois. Any snowfall amounts will be light and most likely along the Highway 20 corridor this morning. Precipitation this morning will likely be snow but a rain and snow mix may be possible by 15 utc as temperatures warm in the lower levels. Monday night will be especially cold with the ridge overhead, even though there will be little or no snow cover.
/issued 1017 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018/ Low cloud cover across our southern and southeast zones being a little stubborn to burn off this morning but with the higher sun angle and with drier low level air continuing to slowly push south and east during the afternoon, we should be able to burn this shallow cloud deck back some later today.
301 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will drop south into the area this evening, producing a few showers. A cold front will cross the region this evening. Models continue to indicate low pressure developing off the Carolinas will trek further out to sea, remaining east of the benchmark.
Very cold air continues tonight as the Arctic high pressure centered over eastern North Dakota/western Minnesota slightly shifts southeast.
Most low elevations, including those in northwest Montana, should be near or above freezing later this evening.
That said, NAM and GFS soundings saturate the low-levels for a couple of hours generally centered around 15Z over the Evansville Tri State.
Latest GOES satellite imagery shows an overcast deck of MVFR to VFR conditions at the terminals behind a recent cold front. Have this covered by scattering out clouds by mid afternoon up there, but expect the low overcast to stay a bit more stubborn across the RGV, last to depart close to the coast and that likely to occur sometime after sunset. Will keep the upper 60s in the Lower Valley, though a couple of 70 pokes is not out of the question.
Upper trough axis should pass through the area early this evening with clouds clearing by mid to late evening.
Have this covered by scattering out clouds by mid afternoon up there, but expect the low overcast to stay a bit more stubbor across the RGV, last to depart close to the coast and that likely to occur sometime after sunset. Will keep the upper 60s in the Lower Valley, though a couple of 70 pokes is not out of the question.
Light southwest winds will become northerly this afternoon and this evening as a cold front sweeps south across Oklahoma into north Texas. A dry cold front will bring a wind shift to the north at all sites 21-07 UTC as it moves southward and through Oklahoma and north Texas.
Current surface analysis has high pressure stretching from the Canadian Prairies to the Northern Plains while modest trough remains to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast with trough over the midwest. For today, aforementioned light snow will continue to push to the east in line with modest frontogenesis over southwest North Dakota, but its progression east will be limited by aforementioned high pressure. Temperatures start to rebound on Monday, with warmest temps over the southwest, as west coast ridge works its way over the Rockies.
305 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 The last remnants of the lower clouds are dissipating quickly across northwest and west central Minnesota.
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions in store through the week.
Cooler night is in store for Monday night as the high pressure ridge axis will be situated just north of the area. High pressure building into the coastal waters will lead to an increase in offshore flow before daybreak with winds rising up to SCA levels again. But, hi-res models along with the SREF model indicate another surge in high pressure will arrive Monday night.
Despite widespread rain today, rainfall amounts still remain on the lower side compared to a few days ago - see the hydrology section for details. Across the Big Bend where the rain start time will be a little later, highs will climb into the lower 70s.
1051 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure continues to build into the region behind a weaker secondary cold front, and winds starting to set up more northwesterly. Cooler air will counter the sunshine today and keep the highs moderate overall. Early morning surface map showed the next cold front not too far to our northwest, across southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa. GFS forecast soundings are fairly moist most of the way up, while the NAM is limiting most of the moisture to about the lowest 5,000 feet of atmosphere. Bumped up PoP's a bit due to the strength of the energy coming in, though snow amounts still look on the lower side, mainly a dusting.
413 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will begin to move across the region tonight with much colder air arriving to start Monday.
1102 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Passing cold front now east of area but lingering moisture/showers continue to hang behind on the plateau.
Meanwhile, surge of cold air will push into the state today as polar high pressure pushes into the upper Midwest.
As high surface pressure centered in the Atlantic looses influence across the southeast, and pressures slightly lowering in the Gulf along a slow-moving cold front, winds will continue to veer while diminishing later this evening through the overnight period. It will become breezy again by late Monday night behind the cold front. Breezy and cooler conditions will persist through the middle of the week while the flow steadily turns through the northeast to east.
A cold front will begin to move across the region tonight with much colder air arriving to start Monday.
Confidence in the areas of dense fog spreading much farther east is on the lower side, so will keep the Dense Fog Advisory as it is for now. The air in the wake of the front is cooler, but not cold and highs today should top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. For tonight into Monday, a trough will dig across the Midwest and swing through the Lower Ohio Valley.
With colder air filtering in behind arctic cold front, highs will struggle to rise on Monday despite clearing skies.
This mid level wave and cold front will drop through the forecast area tonight.
Further north lake effect snow is developing as winds turn northerly behind a cold front moving through the region, allowing moisture from Lake Superior to bring lake effect snow bands across far north central Wisconsin. However not all models have latched onto a solid lake effect snow band affecting these areas given a more northerly direction to the low level flow. Highs today will be cooler than previous days, generally in the 20s. Highs monday will be even cooler, ranging from the middle to upper teens across the north, with highs in the lower 20s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.
246 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 A weak area of low pressure over southwest SD is producing light snow west of the CWA. High pressure building into the region from the north will bring cold temperatures tonight with lows in the single digits on either of zero. The cold high pressure will keep temps in western MN from climbing very much.
253 PM MST Sun Jan 28 2018 A warm front will move northward through the region tonight, as an area of light snow moves northward through the region.
A few mountain snow showers will be possible over the higher terrain of Lake County. Those wind speeds will come down in the afternoon as upper high pressure builds in over the region.
A cold front was located from northeast Ohio through southern Missouri and into western Nebraska. Temperatures will be cooler tonight but seasonal with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 30s. High pressure will build into the central U.
311 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Upper level trough is pushing east of the forecast area this afternoon. Deeper northerly flow is developing behind the upper level trough and this is helping to mix out the cloud cover making for a nice Sunday in late January. Water vapor shows a northern stream short wave moving across the upper MidWest, with an associated Canadian cold front from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains. A secondary surface cold front of Canadian origin will move across the forecast area during the daytime Monday.