Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are starting out below freezing this morning across much of the forecast area, after a night of light winds and mainly clear skies allowed for unseasonably cold weather. The trough will weaken and wash out as it passes over today. Broad, weak ridging aloft then passes over this evening with fair weather, before a more significant upper level system approaches from the west. Overrunning moisture should bring a large area of rain to the north of the low, including the JKL forecast area. The extended will start off extremely dry and warm, as a large ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over the region.
Guidance is in good agreement on convection increasing through the morning as a warm front lifts out of the gulf of Mexico. The good news is that, while severe storms will certainly have the potential to develop this afternoon and evening, the warm front should be well north of the region by the time the best instability will be in place. Thus, the highest risk of severe storms will be displaced to the north closer to the boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the night and into Saturday morning within the very moist airmass along and ahead of a cold front. Drier, although not appreciably cooler, air will advect into the area behind the front through the remainder of the weekend.
Another round of showers and a few embedded and elevated storms will initially move into parts of central and northeast MO and west central IL, north and west of STL late this afternoon and early this evening as upper level divergence increases ahead of a southern stream upper level trough moving through the Southern Plains.
Numerous strong to severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and continue into this evening to our south and southeast across east Texas into Louisiana near the warm front, and these storms may rob the better moisture and instability.
601 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Dry low level conditions sustained as surface ridging expands across the region ensures clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft through tonight. Despite the increasing midday cloud cover, moderate WSW flow will allow for temperatures to push to around normal in the low 60s. Southerly winds weaken tonight but widespread clouds will still allow for a relatively milder night, in comparison to previous nights, with lows falling down into the low 40s. Some additional light scattered showers/drizzle are possible early Saturday night mainly over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb as trailing cold front from the northern wave swings across the lower peninsula.
Warmer temperatures and a gusty westerly breeze will develop for the late morning and afternoon hours today.
657 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure to the south will move east and keep a southerly and generally mild flow in the Ohio Valley today. An upper level trough will see cloud cover overspread the region today and tonight, and then rapidly move east on Saturday afternoon. Rain will be found along and ahead of the trough as a circulation develops in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
Current radar imagery shows the surface reflection of a mid-level trough which should reach the CWA by early this morning. High pressure will build in behind the front, with dry air filtering in.
1046 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Over the past 24 hours, mean layer ridging centered over Central America has consolidated and pressed to the northeast, closer to the Florida Keys. The center of the lower-tropospheric ridging is overtop the Florida Keys, and supports a large anticyclone centered over the Carolinas. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints near 70. High pressure over the Southeast United States will press equatorward and down the Sunshine State through early Saturday, resulting in freshening easterly winds tonight. Meanwhile, this region of high pressure will slide into the Western Atlantic, breezes will clock around to the east to southeast Friday night into Saturday.
With clouds moving in from the west, temperatures have warmed above freezing across the CWA. Temps out in the clear skies out across our far east were at or just below freezing. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 40s out across the Bluegrass region with lows in the mid-upper 40s from the I-65 corridor and points west.
At the surface, cold front is currently crossing the area, with northwest winds becoming breezy as the front moves through. Some 50s will be possible well south and east of the Black Hills, before the cooler air finally filters in. Broad ridge will develop across the area for the weekend. As warmer air surges into the area late Saturday, some light rain could develop across the South Dakota plains, and shift east of the area Saturday night.
428 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Summary: Widespread rain showers are expected today as low pressure crosses the area. Tonight, rain will transition to snow as temps drop below freezing. The higher elevations of the Arrowhead and portions of northwest WI will see slightly higher amounts of 1-1. This low will bring widespread rain across the CWA throughout the day today. As temps drop below freezing tonight, expect rain to transition over to snow. This is due to sub-freezing temps lasting into tomorrow morning in these areas as well as a longer residence time within the area of precip.
Temperatures will be only slightly warmer than yesterday with plenty of cloud cover moving in with the disturbance out to the west. Models struggle in the next 24 hours with a classic warm front/warm sector and a single surface circulation. and focusing along the warm front lifting through the region. Northern progression of the warm front is still a bit of a problem in the forecast, though the most recent runs of the models have been fairly consistent in getting it invof the I-20 corridor. 75 range in the 03Z-09Z time frame with increasing mid level winds to support the potential for heavy rain to focus over the region along and just north of the warm front.
735 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Today should be quiet as the flat upper ridge passes over the state. A southern stream short wave will move from the lower MS Valley across the southeast states late tonight and Saturday. This will result in a strong southerly flow into the forecast area across a surface warm front that should push northward across the area. Forecast concern will be where the axis of heaviest rain sets up along the warm front boundary.
A large and expansive area of high pressure centered over the North Carolina/South Carolina states will slip into the Western Atlantic Ocean tonight, before retreating further offshore.
918 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure to the south will move east and keep a southerly and generally mild flow in the Ohio Valley today. Rain will be found on Saturday along and ahead of a trough of low pressure advancing across the Tennessee Valley.
Favored areas on the plains will probably be south of I-70 along the old low/mid level frontal zone which is still stalled out there, and near the northern border where the northern part of the trough will produce some convergence along a weak frontal boundary. With temperatures a little warmer, the snow level will likely be between 7 and 8 thousand feet, with a few places in the mountains getting a couple of inches of snow again. With the clearing and winds becoming light, we could still wind up near freezing on the plains for one more night. On Saturday, a moderate zonal flow aloft will be over the forecast area and a weak lee trough forming over eastern CO. The strongest winds on Saturday should be over the higher terrain, with gusts to 40 mph above timberline.
A surface cold front extended from northeast ND through western SD, central WY and southern UT. Ahead of the cold front, afternoon temperatures will rise into the 50s to around 60, with 40s behind the front. Upper ridge over the Intermountain West will translate east and flatten over the Rockies and High Plains Saturday, resulting in a west-southwest flow aloft.
This feature has brought a more in the way of clouds/ice crystals aloft to seed the lower levels with most precipitation this morning falling as snow. Hoenisch Light freezing drizzle and or snow is expected to persist through the morning hours today, with gradually improving conditions this afternoon. Light freezing drizzle has occurred overnight across portions of central Montana, including KGTF, as liquid cloud droplets are gently lifted in the sub freezing temperatures. Satellite imagery and short-term models indicate the low cigs will persist through much of the morning, gradually lifting and beginning to break up by early afternoon.
Low pressure develops across North Texas and the Southern Plains today with severe weather expected, strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast. A cold front arrives on Saturday, weakening the pressure gradient and bringing very dry air through the CWA. The cold front arrives late tonight into Saturday, potentially breaking the cap and allowing a couple of thunderstorms to develop.
918 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Dry conditions today before rain returns Saturday with low pressure. Rain chances will increase through the day, peaking during the evening hours as the trough begins crossing the region and becomes slightly negatively- tilted as it phases with the northern stream trough.
519 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Dry conditions today before rain returns Saturday with low pressure. Dry conditions will prevail through the period with high pressure in control. Rain chances will increase through the day, peaking during the evening hours as the trough begins crossing the region and becomes slightly negatively- tilted as it phases with the northern stream trough.
High level cloud cover over the forecast area early this morning was keeping temperatures much warmer than the past couple nights. Clouds and precipitation will limit lows to the lower to mid 40s.
Lots of clouds out there and noticeably warmer across our western counties than the last couple of mornings.
715 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Dry conditions today before rain returns Saturday with low pressure. Dry conditions will prevail through the period with high pressure in control. Rain chances will increase through the day, peaking during the evening hours as the trough begins crossing the region and becomes slightly negatively- tilted as it phases with the northern stream trough.
/Issued 735 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021/ Today should be quiet as the flat upper ridge passes over the state. A southern stream short wave will move from the lower MS Valley across the southeast states late tonight and Saturday. This will result in a strong southerly flow into the forecast area across a surface warm front that should push northward across the area. Forecast concern will be where the axis of heaviest rain sets up along the warm front boundary.
Thicker cloud cover will be last to arrive to eastern portions of the area, thus expect that to be the warmer spot today with highs climbing to near 60 this afternoon. Not looking like we will see these low-level clouds develop like the earlier models suggested given the higher moisture is stalled well to our south and upstream obs in IA/MN are indicating ceilings higher than 5kft. Then we are looking at another opportunity for some showers on Saturday as broad upper- level trough sweeps through the central CONUS and a surface cold front drifts across WI.
Today will be the last warm and dry day across the interior, while cooler marine air lingers along the coast.
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 (Today and tonight) Low level moisture continues to stream north into the area, ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
242 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure to our south will shift offshore today as an area of low pressure moves into the region for Saturday.
316 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Over the past 24 hours, mean-layer, mid to upper level ridging centered over Central America has consolidated and pressed to the northeast, closer to the Florida Keys. According to CIMMS mean-layer analyses, the center of the lower- tropospheric ridging is overtop the Florida Keys, and supports a large anticyclone centered just to the southeast of the Carolinas. Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s, a few ticks higher than this morning. As the mid-latitude system slides east tonight and Saturday, the recently rebuilt mean-layer ridging will erode and flatten.
97 Band of snow showers behind the previous cold front will make its way out of northeast Montana by the early afternoon. Next feature to keep an eye on is an upper level Low digging into the Pacific Northwest.
232 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Other than the switch back to the cooler side, overall forecast impacts look low through the short term. Precipitable water values are better over southeast and east central South Dakota, where WPC shows the best chance for accumulating snow over the higher elevation of the Sisseton Hills.
112 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Summary: Widespread rain showers are expected today as low pressure crosses the area. Tonight, rain will transition to snow as temps drop below freezing. The higher elevations of the Arrowhead and portions of northwest WI will see slightly higher amounts of 1-1. This low will bring widespread rain across the CWA throughout the day today. As temps drop below freezing tonight, expect rain to transition over to snow. This is due to sub-freezing temps lasting into tomorrow morning in these areas as well as a longer residence time within the area of precip.
Tomorrow, a stronger cold front is progged to drop southeast across the area during the afternoon hours, and will bring with it an area of showers during the afternoon hours. Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 60s across southern and southeast Wisconsin. Forecast soundings diverge on how deep convection will get along the cold front. Anderson (Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021) Saturday night through Friday: Saturday night temperatures will be highly dependent on how cloud cover and winds evolve as a colder airmass works into the region behind the above mentioned cold front.
As we head into the weekend, a developing storm system will make its way into the southeast, with a cold front approaching the region.
311 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 A disturbance embedded within an upper trough across the Northern Plains will move across north central Nebraska tonight. Lows from the upper 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. The exception will across far southwest, from near 60 to the lower 60s. A warm front will lift across northern NE Saturday night as a weak disturbance moves across a flattened upper ridge.
355 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 A low pressure system will track from the Gulf Coast states across the Southeast states Saturday into Saturday night, bringing widespread rain and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The highest rainfall amounts will likely be across the southern portion of Kentucky (0. If that were to happen, as some high-res models suggest, a narrow corridor of weak instability within the vicinity of a quasi-warm front could support the development of thunderstorms.
259 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure Friday with milder temperatures. Low pressure crosses this weekend. High pressure again to start the next work week. If skies clear out enough for sufficient radiational cooling, sheltered valleys will have the opportunity to drop below freezing, especially within the brief period of time noted on forecast soundings where boundary layer winds slacken.
Heading into the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through early Saturday morning before clearing generally from west to east as a cold front pushes through the area. Dry conditions will settle in behind the front, with afternoon temperatures on Saturday reaching the lower 70s to lower 80s from north to south.
315 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Temperatures continue to fall behind the cold front this afternoon. A few light rain or snow showers are still possible behind this cold front through this evening. Warm air advection and energy aloft in weak ridging/zonal flow will be the focus for some rain and snow Saturday night ahead of a lee side low.
339 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure centered over the southeast United States will persist over the Ohio River Valley through tonight. Low pressure over the southern Plains will move northeast towards the area at the same time a low pressure developing near Lake Superior begins to move east towards the area.
137 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure to the south will move east and keep a southerly and generally mild flow in the Ohio Valley today. Rain will be found on Saturday along and ahead of a trough of low pressure advancing across the Tennessee Valley.
Mesoanalysis shows steepening mid level lapse rates ahead of the trough over Kansas as well as 200-250 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 30 kts of effective shear this afternoon at 19Z. Moisture transport vectors favor east central and southeast Kansas and continue to expect the highest QPF over east central and southeast Kansas into western Missouri tonight. As the mid level trough axis shifts eastward of the area Saturday morning bringing an end to precipitation by mid morning southeast of I-35. Expect to see temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than today on Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds.
The cold front associated with the passing upper level trough will move across the region during the overnight and into the early morning hours Saturday. With the loss of the cloud cover, temperatures will warm through solar radiation with highs ranging from the low 80s to the mid 90s. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible for locations along and east of the I-10/37 corridor as a result of combination of the low RH values and moderate winds.
Temperatures have only cooled into the lower to mid 80s and will drop slowly into the upper 60s to lower 70s by morning. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 71 92 72 85 / 40 20 40 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 91 71 82 / 40 40 30 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 89 69 91 70 83 / 40 30 40 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 88 67 78 / 40 40 30 50 70.
Upper ridge has retreated into the southern plains, and the central plains will come more under the influence of a northern stream trough moving out of the northern Rockies tonight and Saturday. Severe threat will be over by about 06z as main cluster moves east, with only isolated lingering showers/thunderstorms after midnight as the cold front begins making its way through the forecast area. Aforementioned cold front will continue through the area Saturday morning with breezy to windy north winds which continue through the afternoon hours. Sunday will be a bit cooler with post frontal upslope regime at the surface and more of a zonal flow aloft.
419 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 H5 geopotential heights of 588 dam expand marginally into southern Lower Michigan today denoting minor ridge amplification while the focus of the anticyclone fixates over Arkansas. The potent moisture plume advecting eastward marked by sharp 0-3 km AGL layer max ThetaE gradient reveals that most of the lower tropospheric moisture gets displaced well ahead of an inbound cold front. Rest of Sunday looks to be a bit cooler (mid 80s) with healthy zonal gusts around 25 mph at times.
3) Some potential for a few severe storms this afternoon and evening, along and east of the Mississippi River Today: Widespread thunderstorms will continue to push east this morning, with the highest coverage along and north of Interstate 80. By late afternoon, scattered storms are expected to fire along a cold front near the Mississippi River.
The upper high will still be holding strong with the center over AR. On Sunday, the upper high will undergo some suppression with a fropa expected in the afternoon.
Over the course of the day high pressure builds westward out of the Southern plains. The higher terrain of eastern Utah may see isolated activity as well. Tomorrow the high continues to push westward driving the moisture further into the forecast area. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build into the Great Basin and is likely to bring drier air into the forecast area from the northwest.
1120 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep rain-free weather over the region for most of the weekend.
401 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure will move offshore later today.
Additionally a trough (largely responsible for overnight convection across the waters east of the area), extending from the open Atlc to the FL straits will edge slowly Swd toward the Nrn Bahamas and S Fl later today. As the trough extends Swd, NE flow conds wl develop across Volusia Co and the Space coast. Somewhat high chcs of rainfall will exist as well across the Treasure coast inland where the sinking trough has yet to impact this aftn. Expect periods of heavy rain, lightning and storm gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible mainly inland where the highest chc of storms exist. Wl keep a chc of storms over the local marine areas into early Sunday with peripheral energy ascd with trough feature in proximity to the SE coast.
210 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure will dominate the area through the weekend.
This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures through the period.
325 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 High pressure will move east of the area today, allowing for modest return flow.
Cooler and drier air filters in behind a cold front this morning with forecast highs generally in the 80s. Sunday is forecast to be a bit cooler yet with lighter winds.
354 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Dry and warm weather is expected under high pressure until shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Sunday cold front. A ridge is progged to strengthen and build from the Srn Plains to the NE CONUS today, maintaining mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures. The NE periphery of the ridge is progged to break down Sunday.
228 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Surface cold front will move southward today from central into southern Kansas as an upper trof moves eastward across south central Canada/northern Plains. Localized heavy rainfall is possible into the overnight hours in the higher PWAT airmass across southern Kansas with some convection lingering through Sunday morning. Otherwise, much cooler air will overspread the area on Sunday with high temperatures expected to remain below 80F.
That change comes with a cold front that will likely move into the extreme southwestern and south-central portions of the forecast area as early as mid-afternoon Saturday. Outflow from ongoing convection will assist in pushing the cold front southward through the remainder of the forecast area during the late evening hours on Saturday. Much cooler conditions are expected on Sunday as post-frontal northeasterly flow continues. Have sided with the cooler solutions for highs on Sunday, especially across the SW Panhandle and portions of the South Plains where the easterly upslope component will be strongest.
Quiet weather expected for the weekend across eastern Idaho as high pressure is beginning to build over the region.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through tomorrow: Stout upper ridging will remain centered across the Lower Mississippi Valley through tomorrow with an anomalous thermal ridge extending from the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. A pocket of dry air will also continue to linger across eastern Mississippi with dewpoints in the low 60s to upper 50s.
347 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 One more day of heat before a cold front moves into the area on Sunday to bring us some much needed rain. A cold front will move into the region later on Sunday bringing a chance of showers and storms. This will also keep temperatures cooler.