Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
419 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Upper level ridging will continue to build into the region today. It will dampen somewhat tomorrow in the northern portion of the state as a strong upper level low over Hudson bay allows for more WNW to ESE flow across the northern half of the U. That being said, even with this small shift, the upper level ridge will still have dominant control. At the surface, high pressure will also be large and in charge across the state today. By Friday, however, a cold front will push towards the region from the north. Best chances will be in the northern CWA and along the high terrain in the SE. Second, the S/SW flow will boost temps another degree or two, into the low 90s for highs.
Upper ridging is currently over much of the country and is expected to remain over the CWA through the end of the forecast period with the center of the ridge changing positions. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across the higher terrain and surrounding plains due to the upslope flow bringing in moisture along elevated heat sources.
A bit of a break in the action for Thursday as models indicating high pressure moving in. Otherwise, a fairly warm/muggy day in tap with highs in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Storm chances return to areas mainly south of I-94 later Thursday night as low pressure over the Plains pulls that boundary back north as a warm front. Strong to severe storms look likely Friday into Friday night as a warm front sets up across northern IA/IL and weak low pressure tracks east out of the Central Plains. Looks like right now we would be north of the warm front with elevated storms. Showers and a few storms still possible through the weekend as a fairly strong mid-level trough moves slowly southeast across the area.
Dry weather and mostly clear skies will continue through Friday as an upper low moves into southern Canada. The flow aloft will be southwesterly today then flatten somewhat to west-southwesterly on Friday due to the passage of the upper low to our north. A dry weak cold front will move through today, resulting in temperatures that will be a few degrees cooler.
At the surface, weak Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across the Florida Peninsula, continuing the pattern of warm and moist conditions with light low level flow. Friday will feature a similar pattern, with the biggest difference coming from slightly cooler temperatures aloft as that upper/mid level low approaches.
Aloft, an expansive ridge of high pres remains centered acrs the southern plains toward the lower MS valley, while an upper trough was located over the eastern seaboard. 24 While the main ridge axis is expected to remain north of the area, its influence is expected to build southward some today and Friday. Aftn highs today and Friday are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s outside of any locations that see showers. Shower and tstm chcs will again increase over the weekend as a portion of the trough over the east coast begins to translate around the southeastern and southern periphery of the upper ridge.
412 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Satellite imagery indicates monsoon plume has become somewhat constricted as upper trough over NW NM advects drier air in from the east. Most of the plains will be dry, with warmer temps then yesterday. 100F readings will likely occur across all over the lower ark rvr valley. Lows tonight will be in the 60s plains with 40s and 50s in the higher country. Upper level high moves to the east of the region. Most abundant moisture will be over the mountains where have the highest PoPs and best chances for locally heavy downpours.
Upper ridging centered over the southern Plains continues to build into the Ohio Valley, and will match or exceed the hottest temps of any of the last few summers.
Subsidence in the wake of the aforementioned wave will likely keep convection at bay for much of the day outside of the high country, but we expect another surge of monsoonal moisture by 18-21z ahead of yet another weak disturbance aloft. This should promote convective development over the lower elevations of southeast Wyoming/western Nebraska by late afternoon or early evening.
An upper level low over the Carolinas will slide southward to the Georgia coast on Thursday and retrograde westward across the Florida panhandle on Friday. For Friday, somewhat higher PoPs in the 30-50% range are expected as the upper low continues to retrograde across the area. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.
255 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Weak high pressure will build across the region today. A stronger cold front will approach Thursday night and cross the area Friday.
Rain chances will be sparse today as upper-level ridge strengthens across the region. Could see slight rain chances along the eastern periphery of the ridge across north Louisiana and south-central Arkansas with better chances on Friday as an easterly wave across the Florida panhandle begins to have a stronger impact on the northern gulf coast.
With the upper ridge becoming positioned overhead we will see high temperatures climb well into the middle and upper 90s.
The primary change over the past 24 hours is that high pressure in the mid-levels has shifted further to the east.
The upper ridge builds back up over the weekend. with the upper high centered over the Great Basin. The upper high shifts to the 4 corners area on Mon as an upper trof enters the Pac NW. will keep precip chances on the low side.
As the lower clouds that are to the north move back into the area later tonight there could be some fog developing along the clearing line. The higher clouds across the west could make it a little harder to get some fog, but the temperatures will still drop off and the temperature/dew point spread becomes very small. Since the complete extent of the lower clouds is a bit uncertain, have kept fog across the western part of the forecast area. With the sunshine and a little warm advection, temperatures should be a little warmer for Thursday.
931 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Current observed temperatures are running higher than forecast and will need some adjustment for the evening update, but the 850 mb thermal trough has not yet reached the area. The latest LAMP guidance is trending warmer with lows tonight, so will update the forecast to raise lows by a few degrees, mainly in northern areas.
/issued 158 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018/ After spending 3 days below freezing, most areas finally warmed above freezing by late this morning. Tonight won't be quite as cold as what we saw last night (lows in the teens across much of the area) but expect another cold night with readings well below freezing, perhaps in the 20s. One thing is for sure, cloud cover will increase quite a bit so temperatures will be similar to today with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.
844 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 High pressure ridge continues to build over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains as a weak disturbance moves southward and away from the forecast area this evening. Upper level ridge of high pressure continues to rebuild over the Northern Rockies and MT this evening. Minor adjustments were made to minimum temperatures and cloud-cover tonight along with the addition of patchy freezing fog for the Gallatin and Helena Valleys.
This should mitigate radiational cooling (along with an intermittent light S/SSE) and generally preclude a potential for freezing fog early Thu morning. With the above in mind, have opted to remove mention of freezing fog previously indicated in northeast portions of the area late tonight. H5 ridging to the west combined with west-northwest surface flow will bring the area above normal high temps ranging from around 40F east up to the upper 40s to near 50F west. Above normal warmth is expected to continue as amplified H5 ridge shifts into the Plains region.
This has been the story as cold high pressure continues to slowly sink into MN. At the surface, the area will be between high pressure to the east and low pressure over the Rockies at the beginning of the period.
/issued 328 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018/ Temperatures have risen above freezing today as cold airmass has moved east and downslope winds have brought warming temperatures.
535 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Subsidence is kicking in across the southeast and eroding what was left of the lower clouds.
418 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Upper analysis shows a broadening upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold high pressure is located over most of the Great Plains with a week lee-side trough developing to the east of the northern Rockies. Dry weather with slightly warmer temperatures expected on Thursday as the upper ridge over the western CONUS shifts slightly eastward toward the northern plains.
There will be an almost uninterrupted northwesterly flow overhead as an upper level ridge will remain over the intermountain West through most of the forecast period. The interruption in that pattern will come as a short wave trough moves out of the Pacific northwest and northern California, breaking down the ridge as the trough crosses the Great Basin and then the Rockies.
523 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Area continues to be entrenched in cold northwest flow aloft as a deep long wave trough remains carved out over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was moving through the Great Lakes region while high pressure was building southeast out of Manitoba Canada. For tonight, high pressure will continue to build southeast out of Canada into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region, setting up another bitter cold night with light northwest winds. Another bitter cold night set for Thursday night as ridge of high pressure moves overhead.
The upper level Hudson Bay low and longwave trough storm system over the east coast. combined with the west coast upper level ridge. will result in keeping surface arctic high pressure over eastern parts of the Northern Plains (including the northeast half of ND) and moderating Pacific air over western portions of the Northern Plains and Front Range (including the southwestern half of ND).
While Iowa will be under the influence of high pressure, the center will remain north of the area so the pressure gradient will support winds of 5 to 10 mph.
417 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 A deep upper trough remains in place over the eastern US while ridging at the surface continues to provide a very cold and dry air mass over much of the South. Went with min temps tonight on the lower side of guidance in anticipation of this cooling. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower 20s and upper teens for all areas but the immediate coast Thursday morning.
Latest model runs are consistent in showing light precipitation spreading into southeast Oregon Thursday morning along a warm front. Morning temperatures will be in the 20s across much of southeast Oregon with the possibility for snow and freezing rain. The precipitation along the front is expected to reduce even further as the front lifts northeast into southwest Idaho Thursday afternoon, with just a slight chance of snow - and freezing rain in the lower valleys west of Boise. Slight chance of freezing rain and/or snow showers at KBNO from 16z to 20z.
The main theme of the short term period will be warming temperatures as a strong ridge of high pressure takes over the western United States. Should see a lee-side trough set up over the Rocky Mountain foothills which will keep conditions breezy through the rest of the week west of Billings and Roundup.
However, with the lack of moisture, overnight temperatures will remain rather cold, with freezing temperatures in store for tonight. The low level clouds that have remained a constant for well over a week have finally moved away with sunny conditions. High pressure over the region will lead to light and variable, almost calm, winds overnight with mostly clear skies. This all combined will lead to great radiational cooling with temperatures reaching and dipping below freezing tonight across most of South Texas. Areas along the immediate coast will flirt near freezing, but well far inland, temperatures in the mid to upper 20s are expected. Thursday itself will be slightly warmer with temperatures reaching into the 50s.
The upper level low has shifted eastward into Georgia and skies have cleared across central Alabama this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 40s across much of the area and dewpoint temperatures are in the single digits. A dry cold front will push through the area later tonight and surface winds will increase from the northwest.
935 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Cold front has pushed through all but our extreme southeast parishes this evening with temperatures actually a few degrees warmer in the wake of the front as opposed to ahead of it and that is due to the increased wind behind the front leading to increased mixing while near calm winds ahead of the front has led to more ideal radiational cooling conditions.
517 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Despite the passage of a cold front last night, with a few flurries, temperatures today have been rather.
Another cold January day is on tap for Thursday with high temperatures only topping out in the teens as Arctic high pressure builds into the Midwest.
/BB/ Steep ridging over the western CONUS and a deep Hudson Bay trough extending through the Great Lakes will result in upper level NW flow over the MS River Valley Region of the country. At the surface, high pressure building over the Plains and a "bombing" low moving northward just off the eastern seaboard will result in a tighter pressure gradient over the SE US tonight and early tomorrow. Dry weather with limited cloud cover will return tomorrow as high pressure continues to filter into the region. Temperatures tomorrow should rise above freezing again through the region with some 40s getting as far north as the I-20 corridor. The large upper trough will remain parked across the eastern half of the nation, with cold high pressure at the surface.
Winds have picked up from the northwest again, so look for overnight temperatures to plunge back into the teens despite today's warmer readings.
low temps look to remain in the low to upper teens for most locations.
A cold front is moving through the region but not before temperatures have climbed above freezing across much of the area.
Potential for slippery roads and sidewalks Tonight due to black Low pressure system tracking rapidily up the East coast this evening. Temperatures are on track for lows in the lower to middle 20s across the region, producing a widespread hard freeze. This issue will be more isolated where rain fell Today, and more common where freezing rain and snow fell Today.
Surface analysis this afternoon showed a ridge of high pressure from the eastern Dakotas into eastern NE, eastern KS and western OK.
Weak surface gradients and in the low levels will continue to produce limited wind. Slightly warmer than Wednesday night at most locations as the airmass slowly moderates.
Despite clouds and potentially fog, temperatures will still drop into the low teens and single digits.
All zones will easily surpass freezing this afternoon for the first time in several days, with SW zones near 50. 12z MOS guidance has come in several degrees warmer, and with the bone dry ground, was confident to increase Thursday's max temperature grid several degrees across the board.
856 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Quiet but very cold conditions expected across central and southeast Illinois overnight as Arctic high pressure builds into the area.
721 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Low pressure off the South Carolina coast will move northeastward away from the area tonight. Arctic high pressure will build in for the rest of the week and the weekend.
Fri night into Sat as snow gradually tapers off due to a ridge moving through. The cold air will lead to persistent freezing spray with hvy freezing spray on much of central and eastern Lake Superior. S to sw winds will then quickly ramp up thru Sat night ahead of an approaching low pres trof.
Soundings across north Georgia are not showing as much moisture in the 700-850mb layer tonight or tomorrow and have dropped the mention of flurries as the lower layers are quite dry. Models continue to show reinforcing cold air spreading across the forecast area beginning tonight, with overnight lows up to 5 degrees cooler than this morning.
After around 90 straight hours of freezing, it looks like all of Mid TN has climbed out of the freezer today, at least briefly. This moisture will result in mainly flurries late tonight through mid morning Thursday, but the highest elevations that usually benefit from upslope flow, generally from Jamestown to Monterey, could have a quarter inch of fluffy flakes.
Dew points are running about 10 degrees warmer tonight than last night although wind chills are into the 20's at all ASOS sites.
High pressure aloft will slowly shift eastward tonight and Thursday.
Strong cyclogenesis off the southeast coast tonight will serve to enhance the longwave trough over the eastern states and draw another shot of cold, dry air into the region.
/issued 305 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018/ The Four-State Region has finally warmed to above freezing late this aftn /lower 40s/, courtesy of plentiful insolation and a slight westerly sfc wind component. This evening, a weak cold front will translate across the region, and veer sfc winds to the north- northwest thus providing a reinforcing shot of cold air.
Clouds will gradually clear through the morning with mostly clear skies expected by the afternoon with highs reaching into the low to mid 50s.
/TH/ Prior discussion below: Steep ridging over the western CONUS and a deep Hudson Bay trough extending through the Great Lakes will result in upper level NW flow over the MS River Valley Region of the country. At the surface, high pressure building over the Plains and a "bombing" low moving northward just off the eastern seaboard will result in a tighter pressure gradient over the SE US tonight and early tomorrow. Dry weather with limited cloud cover will return tomorrow as high pressure continues to filter into the region. Temperatures tomorrow should rise above freezing again through the region with some 40s getting as far north as the I-20 corridor. The large upper trough will remain parked across the eastern half of the nation, with cold high pressure at the surface.
605 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Low pressure off the South Carolina coast will move northeastward away from the area tonight. Arctic high pressure will build in for the rest of the week and the weekend.
Most areas will drop below freezing for a few hours.
Visible satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming towards the southeast off the higher terrain in New Mexico and Colorado. Forecast soundings and upper level humidity fields indicate that at least some of these high clouds will be able to make it to the region tonight but, while these clouds will have some impact on radiational cooling, expect overnight lows to fall into into the lower 20s to mid 30s. The combination of cloud cover and warming 950-850 MB temperatures across the region should keep overnight lows warmer than last night by about 5-7 degrees.
/issued 417 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018/ A deep upper trough remains in place over the eastern US while ridging at the surface continues to provide a very cold and dry air mass over much of the South. Went with min temps tonight on the lower side of guidance in anticipation of this cooling. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower 20s and upper teens for all areas but the immediate coast Thursday morning.
446 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Aviation Section Updated High pressure ridge continues to build over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains as a weak disturbance moves southward and away from the forecast area this evening.
1032 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Low pressure off the North Carolina coast will move northeastward away from the area tonight. Arctic high pressure will build in for the rest of the week and the weekend.
514 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Low pressure off the South Carolina coast will move northeastward away from the area tonight. Arctic high pressure will build in for the rest of the week and the weekend.
Another arctic cold front was barreling through Central Alabama this evening. Winds will be a bit higher in the higher terrain areas and therefore will feel a bit colder. The upper level low has shifted eastward into Georgia and skies have cleared across central Alabama this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 40s across much of the area and dewpoint temperatures are in the single digits. A dry cold front will push through the area later tonight and surface winds will increase from the northwest.
High pressure builds tonight for decreasing winds and good radiational cooling with temperatures dropping into the -15 to -25 F range, so have issued a wind chill advisory for a large section of the area despite the relatively calm winds - the balance between cold temperatures and wind is enough to create -25 F wind chills.
Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain on the eastern side of a weak ridge over the Great Basin and dry weather is expected through the duration of the short term forecast. Temperatures ran slightly warmer than expected last night overall, except in Gunnison which managed a -6 degree night despite ground devoid of snow cover. Temperatures overnight Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly warmer given the thin cloud cover, however the typical cold spots have all been adjusted downward from guidance blends on both nights.
A weak cold front will push across the Southern Appalachian Region tonight.
Thursday night again looks chilly as that ridge axis continues to slowly move east across the Ozarks.
High pressure over Nevada will shift east and weaken during the next couple of days.
503 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Another cold night ahead as high pressure settles south and dry air is in place.
An increase in higher level clouds will keep readings a few degrees warmer across central Kansas.
642 AM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018 Satl imagery this morning showing a very broad trof extending across the CONUS with increased Pacific moisture streaming eastward. the leading edge of a cold front was situated from ern IA-nrn MO-sw KS.
/issued 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018/ An upper level trough will continue to dig across the central and eastern half of the U. A strong cold front will be dropping south out of the Central Plains today and push across the Mid South tonight. Showers and thunderstorms should continue to blossom across the region today in response to the approaching upper trough. As the cold front drops south tonight, much colder air will filter into the area. In these areas, some light accumulations will be possible, mainly on grassy surfaces, although some slick spots could develop on elevated road surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.
A cold front will move into the area overnight, and should be through VCT by the end of this forecast period with a northerly wind. Highs today warmer in the mid to upper 80s east and lower 90s west. A strong cold front will move into the region tonight.
1204 PM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 A fast moving clipper will pass north of Pennsylvania today, dragging a trailing cold front through the state during the afternoon and evening.
643 AM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018 A couple of reinforcing shots of colder air are moving into the broad long wave trough over the eastern half of the country.
747 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 A fast moving clipper will pass north of Pennsylvania today, dragging a trailing cold front through the state during the afternoon and evening.
Exact timing for the line of strong thunderstorms associated with an incoming cold front this evening and overnight is uncertain, but general time frame is after around 02Z-04Z for KAEX, and roughly 08Z for remaining sites. High pressure has moved well off the east coast this morning while low pressure is organizing in the plains. A cold front is stretched from the mid Mississippi Valley to north OK. The first wave of activity will push through this morning with the aforementioned short wave over East Tx, however another round of weather is expected this evening/tonight with the next disturbance and incoming cold front.