Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure rebuilds over the northern Rockies today. Expect light winds and high temperatures a few degrees warmer than normal, from near 90 in north-central Idaho to mid-80s in Western Montana.
1136 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Upper ridging building in from the west along with persistent southerly flow will support above normal temperatures Thursday in the 90s to near 100 degrees, warmest west of I-135.
1133 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Cloud cover this morning inhibited thunderstorm development earlier today but, once that cleared, thunderstorms quickly fired over the higher terrain. The progression of the area of high pressure over the Four Corners area earlier today has allowed monsoon moisture to stream in from the southwest. While activity generally looks to remain stratiform into early Thursday, as we head into the late morning and early afternoon hours stronger thunderstorms will develop as the trough passes overhead. Surface dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 40s as a result.
This has placed our whole CWA back in a rather moist airmass with surface dew points in the lower 70s and PWATS back above two inches. These clouds in addition to the clouds associated with today's round of convection are expected to hold temperatures cooler than normal in the mid to upper 80s.
222 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 High pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures persist through Thursday.
1110 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Just a quick update to the grids mainly to add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td ones where a raging ridge to valley split is underway. 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in firm control of the weather through eastern Kentucky. Currently temperatures vary from the low to mid 80s most places to the mid 70s in the already shaded valleys. This high pressure will continue to remain in place through the remainder of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. High pressure continues into the day Thursday before a weak system skirts the area for Thursday afternoon.
(Today) Warming trend will continue today with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s as weak upper ridge begins to slowly build over the region.
254 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A cold front pushed through last evening, producing some showers and thunderstorms, but has moved on. Through the rest of the day the weather across the area should be fairly quiet, with that cooler and drier air in place. Flow aloft will be fairly flat with a trough located north of the area.
Dew points by this afternoon will climb into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees as high temperatures climb into the lower 90s, resulting in much more typical late June conditions.
442 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Mainly cool clear weather across the region early this morning as weak high pressure sits overhead of the area. The rest of today will be notably warmer than yesterday due to a northeast passage of a warm front.
Diurnally enhanced scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be on tap today as deep tropical moisture characterized by PWATs approaching 2" remains entrenched beneath the broad dirty upper ridge.
The increasing return flow will boost temperatures and dewpoints until a cold front associated with the trough moves into the area tomorrow afternoon.
Next low pressure will arrive this weekend, bringing increased onshore flow. This will bring more clouds, cooler temperatures, and even some spotty showers. Marine clouds continue to break apart and dissipate this afternoon, with last of the clouds to those against the lower slopes of the Cascades, as well as along the coast beaches and offshore. As such, will see temperatures a tad warmer for Thu, with 60s along the coast, and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.
Did make a few minor adjustments to the lows based on the current trends in the observations. Just a quick update to the grids mainly to add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td ones where a raging ridge to valley split is underway. 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in firm control of the weather through eastern Kentucky. Currently temperatures vary from the low to mid 80s most places to the mid 70s in the already shaded valleys. This high pressure will continue to remain in place through the remainder of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. High pressure continues into the day Thursday before a weak system skirts the area for Thursday afternoon.
221 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A large area of high pressure will drift east off the Carolina Coast and create a southwesterly flow of increasingly warmer and more humid air.
336 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Early morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery are showing an upper level low spinning over the Florida Straits.
A cold front will slowly creep across the forecast area from northwest to southeast. Strong damaging winds looks to be the main threat, given dry air in the low levels, however some large hail could be produced as well.
This feature is not quite as sharp as it has been over the past few days, which is likely due to it's slow demise as high pressure begins to build in. Temperatures are currently in the lower 80s and dewpoints are in the mid 70s, making for a very muggy start to the day. As this high strengthens, winds will increase after a long stint of lighter winds. From synopsis, Easterly breezes will freshen today and tonight, then peak and lull through the weekend, as high pressure builds westward into the Southeast United States.
359 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Warm But Not Overly Humid Today -- The surface front which has been wavering over southern Michigan since yesterday will move north as a warm front as southwesterly low-level flow increases ahead of a cold front associated with northern Ontario low pressure.
307 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The current surface weather map shows the lingering trough stretching from the parent low over western Ontario through our eastern counties and into north central NE.
Upstream shows and area of clouds associated with a 500 mb short wave trough which will drop southeast into northeast ND and far NW MN midday and aftn and give a few showers or possible t-storm. Convective temps in the north in the lower 70s which will be reached and enough 850-800 mb layer moisture for some cloud development and about 500-700 j/kg MU CAPE.
Previous Discussion: Monsoonal moisture that got tied into jet stream energy around an upper low over British Columbia triggered an area of showers and thunderstorms this morning that are now exiting to our northeast. TFJ Upper trough over southern BC will slide east today pushing a front across eastern Montana. A secondary front drops south on Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and a brief shot at some showers along the Canadian border. Another ridge moves into the area to start off the 4th of July weekend bringing continued dry conditions and above average temperatures. By late in the weekend an upper low digging off the west coast could begin to pull monsoonal moisture northward along with some low level Gulf moisture as well.
300 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 An upper trough will traverse into the northern plains today, and an associated cold front will begin to sag across central plains later this afternoon. More widespread storm coverage is likelier later tonight as storms from upslope flow across the high plains progress eastward along with additional thunderstorm development along and north of I-70.
/issued 335 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Invest 95L may slowly be beginning to organize off the lower Texas coast, with some tropical banding becoming more evident on the BRO radar. Have bumped coastal highs up slightly from NBM with slightly less rainfall or cloud cover, and have pretty much ran with the warmer NBM for Friday with stronger subsidence to the west of Invest 95L.
For the Independence Day weekend, confidence remains high in below average temperatures and breezy winds as a trough moves into the west coast. * THROUGH FRIDAY: Typical daytime breezes and seasonably warm to round out the workweek as the area remains between a trough off the west coast and a ridge over the south central US. * INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND: Confidence is very high in the offshore trough deepening and edging inland during the holiday weekend. Right now, thermal gradients appear tightest Sat-Sun as the cooler air works into the region with gusts in the 30-35 mph range, locally stronger in windprone spots. Ridges will gust to 50-60 mph.
619 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 An upper trough will traverse into the northern plains today, and an associated cold front will begin to sag across central plains later this afternoon. More widespread storm coverage is likelier later tonight as storms from upslope flow across the high plains progress eastward along with additional thunderstorm development along and north of I-70.
The increasing return flow will boost temperatures and dewpoints until a cold front associated with the trough moves into the area tomorrow afternoon. BSH The above cold front is expected to push through the majority of the forecast area Friday evening and overnight. Secondly, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit available instability, especially in the evening and overnight hours as the low level lapse rates worsen.
Cooling trend continues through the weekend with incoming trough arriving to the West coast.
North of the warm front, dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 50s, while south of it the dreaded 70 degree dewpoints have returned. Moisture will continue to increase across the remainder of the region through the day as the warm front lifts north. With broad ridging in the mid-levels present, temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday and in the lower 90s across much of the region, and lower 80s in the higher elevations. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with potential for scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
The coverage of showers and storms will be lower on Friday, with the highest rain chances across eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
501 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Dry weather continues with warming temperatures until a late Friday cold frontal passage. Ridge building/warm advctn will continue today as a trough digs over the nrn Plains. By Friday, humidity and rain chance increase with the approach of a trough/cold front.
Southwest winds will be breezy this morning ahead of a cold front that will move through later in the day. Southerly winds will shift through the day as a cold front moves through the region.
Dew points by this afternoon will climb into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees as high temperatures climb into the lower 90s, resulting in much more typical late June conditions. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s with dew points around 70 degrees, and some areas will flirt with afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees. A cold front will be approaching our region from the north Friday night, and we will see increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across all but our southwest counties.
/issued 228 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/ Upper ridging will take even firmer control of the weather today, resulting in the troposphere further warming and drying. Even the extremely isolated showers yesterday afternoon/evening look unlikely this afternoon locally as the ridge exerts itself.
707 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 An upper level ridge will build over Pennsylvania today into early Friday.
A weak upper level trough is currently over the state today which helped to increase moisture compared to yesterday however we are still seeing a little bit of drier air in the mid levels. Early morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery are showing an upper level low spinning over the Florida Straits. This low will meander near southern Florida today and Friday, then will start to drift south into the Caribbean during the weekend. At the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis continues to extend from the Atlantic into the southeastern US, favoring southeast/east gradient flow.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be along and south of I-40 and the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with the highest chances along the mountains and southern TN Valley. A midlevel ridge is currently over the area this morning, and will drift east through the day. With the trough axis positioned across our southern sections tonight, and continued moisture advection through the column, some showers will likely persist through tonight.
723 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Aviation -- Warm But Not Overly Humid Today -- The surface front which has been wavering over southern Michigan since yesterday will move north as a warm front as southwesterly low-level flow increases ahead of a cold front associated with northern Ontario low pressure. A surface cold front in the area, upper level troughing and the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak (suggesting upper level divergence) combined with 850 moisture advection underneath modest to moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield enough elevated instability, lift, and effective shear for some convection.
Most of the convection will be along and to the east of the low, favoring the Victoria Crossroads. Overnight lows will range in the 70s and tomorrow afternoon will warm a few degrees warmer with less cloud coverage.
Mid-upper level troughing continues across the FL peninsula with inverted surface reflection extending from north of Cape southwestward across central FL and through southwest FL.
A cold front will bring scattered storms Friday afternoon and evening. Main impact will be a noticeable increase in dewpoints/humidity and much warmer overnight lows around 70F. Weak cold front still slated to arrive late Fri. extending from potent James Bay upper low. SE zones will have another day in the low 90s but dewpoints still not high enough to generate heat indices above mid 90s. Doubt our area will see any precip given recent trends and strength of theta-e trough on latest guidance but did maintain slight chance PoP's in our far south.
604 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 An upper level ridge will build over Pennsylvania today into early Friday.
Normal heat, humidity, and thunderstorm coverage to return Friday and continue thru the July 4th weekend with weak to modest high pressure to prevail. "Dirty" upper ridging across the Carolinas today into tonight will have enough dryer air in the mid and upper levels, along with weak NVA aloft, to keep shower and thunderstorm activity and coverage lower than what occurred during the past few days. POPs generally in the 20 to 45 percent today, with the lowest end of this range across the ILM NC CWA and the hiest across the southwest portions of the ILM SC CWA. The coastal trof just off the coast of NC and SC will be a source for convection development tonight and likely push onshore toward daybreak Fri with hourly POPs reflecting this.
Forecast Discussion: Another hot day is expected today before a cold front begins to work into Kansas tonight.
413 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Two upper lows will dominate the weather pattern across much of North America through the weekend. In the east a low rotating around Hudson Bay will keep the ridge in the west generally suppressed for temperatures close to normal through the period. Weak ridging occurs over Montana but more importantly, the digging trof will begin to pull monsoonal moisture northward.
550 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 After a warm and breezy day today, a cold front moving into central Illinois on Friday will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms as well as cool temperatures a few degrees. High temperatures will largely return to the lower 90s today as well. HREF 1-hr QPF probs indicate scattered convection over the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon, with an outside chance of reaching the southeastern corner of the ILX forecast area.
This has placed our whole CWA back in a rather moist airmass with surface dew points in the lower 70s and PWATS back above two inches. These clouds in addition to the clouds associated with today's round of convection are expected to hold temperatures cooler than normal in the mid to upper 80s. Though precip activity will primarily be diurnal in nature, the moisture rich airmass and lingering forcing from the low will allow isolated activity to fester into the night at times.
533 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A weak cold front has pushed across much of the area with stable conditions and no precipitation expected over the northern third of the area today. On Friday, there will be sufficient instability for isolated to locally scattered afternoon convection forming over the higher terrain and moving into the adjacent basins and valleys.
620 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 (Today) Warming trend will continue today with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s as weak upper ridge begins to slowly build over the region.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today. For today, a robust mid level SW/V trough will move eastward across the region, driving a surface cold front south across the state.
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today. For today, a robust mid level SW/V trough will move eastward across the region, driving a surface cold front south across the state.
The current surface weather map shows the lingering trough stretching from the parent low over western Ontario through our eastern counties and into north central NE.
Enough dry air is expected to persist in the low levels to maintain dry weather through the night, though southerly flow behind the retreating high pressure will transport increasingly warmer and moister air into the area. Warm air advection will allow temperatures to rise above normal, reaching highs in the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s in the higher elevations. Overnight temperatures will be mild, with lows in the mid 60s to around 70 in the lowlands and low to mid 60s for the higher elevations. As an approaching cold front gets closer, moisture advection under southwest flow and afternoon heating will destabilize the local atmosphere to produce SB CAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg.
Today's monsoonal convection largely avoided the high impact areas of concern, despite greater aerial coverage.
614 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Warm and dry conditions are expected again today with high pressure continuing to build over the region. Overnight lows tonight will remain in the lower to mid 70s.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ A broad ridge will remain planted across the southern half of the CONUS over the next few days. Though dominant, the ridge will become somewhat compromised by a weak tropical disturbance currently developing over the northwest Gulf.
940 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Dry weather continues with warming temperatures until a late Friday cold frontal passage. This supports the sunny and warm forecast today as a ridge builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. By Friday, humidity and rain chance increase with the approach of a trough/cold front.
Temperatures were between 2 to 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across the forecast area with readings genereally in the mid to upper 60s. Dew points were generally still in the low to mid 50s over the area. Otherwise HI values will be around the high temperature which will be from the upper 80s to low 90s. Not really enough moisture today even for pulse thunderstorm activity with the higher PW values not really arriving until Friday, so today should be mostly sunny again. Lows tonight will be warmer than we will experience during the remainder of the current overnight period as dew points will be on the increase over the area today/tonight.
Weak upper level trough remaining over Western Washington through Friday. Upper level low offshore moving inland later in the weekend increasing the chance for showers.
Thermal ridge will build across west Texas with H850 temperatures of +28C to +31C by this afternoon. A weak surface lee low/wave will develop tomorrow afternoon across SW Kansas and associated with it will be a very weak cold front moving south into the northern TX Panhandle before it likely becomes mixed out.
957 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east with a southerly flow developing. Precipitation chances will increase Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Some mid-level cu may develop this afternoon as the low and mid-levels saturate. Westerly mid level flow around the periphery of the mid level ridge with a weak impulse moving thru the area overnight. Broad mid level trof settles south into the Great Lakes Friday. This will allow an associated surface cold front to slip into northern Ohio Friday afternoon.
Broad, but messy, upper level ridging stretches across much of the southern CONUS this morning. A tropical disturbance rotates off the Texas coast, and a weak upper level trough axis stretches from this disturbance to the northeast toward the southern Appalachians. The upper level trough across the area and a weak impulse along the northern Gulf coast will help focus initial convective development today.
Longwave troughing will linger offshore the rest of the week and will begin to deepen on Friday.
Today: Overnight an upper ridge has continued to build into the area. Additionally, southerly flow has increased which will allow temperatures to return to the low 90s again today. As this happens, a low pressure to our north will push a cold front into our area. North of the front will only reach the low to mid 80s, while areas south of the front will see another day in the low 90s. Heat indices in our far southern CWA may reach the upper 90s as moisture continues advecting in and moisture pools along the cold front.
1025 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Today will be notably warmer than yesterday as a weak warm front moves northeast across the region.
602 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A warm front will lift north throughout the day. As the warm front responsible for this increasing moisture lifts north. though the warm front will be well north of AR. Lows will also remain warmer than in recent days.
Next low pressure will arrive this weekend, bringing increased onshore flow. This will bring more clouds, cooler temperatures, and even some spotty showers.
1047 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Water vapor imagery places the upper low just to the southeast of the Upper Keys, with northeast winds diving southwest through the Florida Keys above 500 mb. Easterly breezes will freshen today and tonight, then peak and lull through the weekend, as high pressure builds westward into the Southeast United States.
(Today through Friday afternoon) We will be in a stagnant pattern in the short term with weak upper level high pressure dominating the southern United States. The ridge axis is east/west oriented and north of our CWA which will continue a deep easterly flow. Subsidence from the high will be enough to suppress convection in the lower elevations with orographic lift being enough to allow isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms in the Big Bend and Guadalupe Mountains.
703 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Dry weather continues with warming temperatures until a late Friday cold frontal passage. Sunny and warm weather is expected today as a ridge builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. By Friday, humidity and rain chance increase with the approach of a trough/cold front.
636 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east with a southerly flow developing. Precipitation chances will increase Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Westerly mid level flow around the periphery of the mid level ridge with a weak impulse moving thru the area overnight. Broad mid level trof settles south into the Great Lakes Friday. This will allow an associated surface cold front to slip into northern Ohio Friday afternoon.
/Issued 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/ /Through Friday/ A warmer day is expected across much of the area today, with temperatures generally climbing into the mid to upper 90s.