Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 High pressure aloft over the Four Corners will continue to anchor the weather map through the short term portion of the forecast. Troughing will be locked in over the northeast, and an orphaned trough/low will remain just to our south and extend southwest to eastern Texas. An impulse will move through the northeastern trough Tuesday night into Wednesday, and that will attempt to push a backdoor cold front southwest toward our southwest Indiana counties by Wednesday afternoon.
Broad surface ridging over the central CONUS will maintain VFR conditions thru the period at all sites. /Issued 948 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ Animation of water vapor imagery this evening indicates the mid/upper level trough translating southward into central Arkansas. This activity has already trended down this evening, with the exception of the convection in west central Arkansas through central Arkansas, which is being supported by the aforementioned trough. /Issued 216 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ Upper ridge to our west continues to amplify, with deep northerly flow effectively pushing the moisture axis south of the Red River. Wave will continue to dive south and west over the next few days with ridge expanding across the area.
Mid/upper trof axis extending from the northeast states across the TN Valley into north Tx. Most unstable area is situated just west of I-45 & south of I-10 where pcldy skies and warmer temps are situated.
However, any precip will have to overcome the large dome of high pressure, so will limit PoPs to a slight chance just across our southeast corner of the CWA. Mid-week upper pattern is marked by a strong ridge over the Four Corners with a trof over Quebec, with NW flow across the Great Lakes in between. We'll stay dry on Wednesday with that ridge nosing in from the west, keeping any Gulf moisture and resulting convection in the Deep South.
227 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through the weekend. Aloft, the region will remain to the east of a positively tilted mid-level trough while a ridge is positioned well to the east.
High pressure continues to dominate across the Sunshine State, while mid level trough stretches across southern states.
A slow moving cold front will be moving through the Northland this afternoon. The upper Midwest will be right between an upper level ridge to the southwest and an upper level trough to the northeast for the majority of the week. Winds will be the highest along the South Shore and around the Bayfield Peninsula, including the Twin Ports. The highest northeast winds of 15-25 knots are expected around 7AM CDT Tuesday but northeast flow 10-15 knots will continue through the day.
Mid/upper trof axis extending from the northeast states across the TN Valley into north Tx.
312 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Dry weather is expected until a crossing cold front returns shower and thunderstorm chances to the area tonight and Wednesday.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the Atlantic well to the east of Bermuda, with a weak ridge extending westward to the Florida peninsula. This high has weakened during the past 24 hours, allowing for lighter ESE flow across the Keys than we have seen for the past several days. Aloft, deep ridging prevails over our region, with a lengthy TUTT extending from the central Atlantic to eastern Cuba. Only slight rain chances are forecast for tonight through Wednesday night, as the deep ridge remains dominant, with gentle mainly SE low level flow providing little in the way of a mesoscale trigger to overcome the unfavorable synoptic pattern.
Elongated mid-level troughiness over the BRO CWFA will transition to closed 500 mb low pressure that will move north of the region and into central Texas.
126 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 A boundary will keep cooler temperatures and a chance of rain in the forecast through Wednesday. High temperatures will be a little unusual in that with less sky cover along the VA-NC border, high temperatures should actually be a couple degrees warmer in northern counties than they will be in the south. An isolated upper 70 degree high cannot be ruled out, but otherwise all locations are expected to rise back into the lower 80s, still below normal. Lows will also be a couple degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. At the start of Wednesday, the cold front will roughly parallel the I-95 corridor and will continue to sag south during the day.
A trough of low pressure moving into British Columbia will bring clouds and cooler temperatures to Western Washington Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure aloft will then strengthen for a warming trend and more sunshine into the coming weekend.
Despite the high humidity, precipitable water is declining and 500 mb temperatures are gradually warming, leading to poor instability (CAPE near 500 J/kg and lifted index near -2).
00Z 250 hPa analysis continues to show a high amplitude longwave ridge centered over the Rocky mountains. Rising heights and subsidence aloft associated with this ridge has kept skies across our area predominantly clear. At the surface, light winds continue to prevail as a high pressure is expected to persist in the central Missouri River Valley.
Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery and RAP 500mb heights reveals the large swath of dry air aloft advecting into the Southern Plains around the westward edge of a closed low centered over western Tennessee. The upper high remains over the Rockies with northeasterly flow aloft for the Panhandles. The upper low will continue to cut off from the trough over the Mid-Atlantic today and then begin to retrograde westward over Texas tomorrow. This leaves the Panhandles under a continued dry and warmer northeasterly air mass aloft along with the low level monsoonal moisture in conjunction with the high remaining west of the forecast area.
1135 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Dry weather is expected until a crossing cold front returns shower and thunderstorms chances to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. On Tuesday, the ridge axis in place across the northern Plains begins to reorient itself more towards the upper Mississippi Valley. This will set up a troughing pattern over the northeast CONUS, and and upper-level northwest flow pattern over us. Precipitation will end during the afternoon, and the next high pressure center provides a dry Wednesday night.
/Today through Tonight/ Confidence: High Little change moving forward today with high pressure still in place across the region. Subjective H850 analysis tonight shows a cold front over southern Canada aloft and a sfc reflection which is expected to move southwest across MN into northeast IA this afternoon/evening. Winds again, beneath the high, will be rather light through the day.
Monsoon flow this week around high pressure over the Rockies will continue warm days, mild nights and a chance for occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains and deserts in the afternoons. Gradual cooling is expected by the weekend as the warm ridge aloft slowly weakens. A ridge of high pressure has elongated southwest and into our region and this has lead to decreasing moisture and more subsidence. A drying/cooling trend will occur over the weekend as flow becomes more westerly as an upper low develops off the coast.
With that said, Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery is showing fog developing within the cooler valleys across NW AR and SE OK. The trough that has been giving us stubborn showers and storms the past few nights will start to exit the area through the day today which will finally give us a break from the showers and storms. The downside to this will be the heat and humidity which will continue to increase through the week as mid level heights rise thanks to a building ridge through the week. There is some indication that a Rex block will develop through the middle and end of this week where a weak upper low gets trapped in central Texas under the developing ridge. The weekend will see the upper ridge begin to center and build over Oklahoma.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 68 86 70 89 / 60 40 40 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 67 88 69 90 / 50 20 30 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 80 66 87 67 89 / 40 20 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 88 65 89 / 30 10 20 0 10.
120 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 High pressure extending into the region will be reinforced during the middle of the week keeping mainly dry conditions.
The weak flow aloft is courtesy of a strong high pressure ridge which has set up across the central Rockies and is looking to remain in place throughout the work week. On the backside of the ridge, the HRRR smoke trajectories indicate the area will be socked in all day Tuesday with rather thick smoke aloft.
/issued 925 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ 9PM Update Showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South with the upper level low spinning over us. Temperatures will gradually inch back to near normal by the end of the week Toward the weekend the strong upper level high over the Mountain West slowly moves east, thus resulting in more normal July heat and humidity. Far less coverage is expected tomorrow as a weak cold front finally moves into central portions of Mississippi and Alabama.
241 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 The mid/upper ridge over the Rockies and Southwest is progged to expand eastward as we move through the upcoming week. This will begin a slow and steady warming trend with highs rising into the lower 90s by Wed. The mid/upper ridge is progged to meander across the region resulting hot and dry weather conditions across the region.
254 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 As of 08Z Tuesday morning the western US midlevel ridge axis was advancing eastward and will play a role in warmer temperatures for our area later this week.
A quiet day is in the forecast as a large area of high pressure in the northern plains will bring in a pocket of drier air in the 500-700 mb layer from the northeast which will keep the skies sunny to partly cloudy. Tonight we will have mostly clear skies, light winds, and lows in the lower 60s. On the eastern periphery of the semi-permanent Great Basin/southern Rockies subtropical ridge, models forecast the lower atmosphere to warm incrementally each day through the period.
A cold front will sweep through central Pennsylvania on Wednesday, ushering in cooler temperatures and refreshingly low humidity for the rest of the work week before rain chances, heat and humidity make a comeback for the weekend. Tuesday will be the warmest and most humid day of the week as MaxTs top out around 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley and mid 80s across the northwest mountains and Laurels. By Tuesday night, a cold front will approach PA from the northwest and drag showers and a thunderstorm or two across the Commonwealth. The upper trough will help sustain showers across the northern tier into Wednesday morning as temperatures stay mild and bottom out in the 60s areawide.
1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front is currently moving through the Concho Valley and Heartland. An upper level low is forecast to be centered across the Mississippi Valley, with this feature nosing into East Texas, on Tuesday. Meanwhile the aforementioned cold front will be well south of the area, across South Texas.
224 AM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Western CONUS ridge will remain in place supporting hot and mainly dry conds in the period most places. Weak ridge topping impulses combined with bouts of monsoon moisture will support isold TS at times. Convection will shift slowly east with the trough this evening eventually becoming elevated and driven by an expected LLJ, with any activity mainly confined to NW SD overnight. Weaker CIN will be in place over the Black Hills, with diurnal heating and combined LL moisture sufficient for isolated storms via mid ridge convergence. Isolated TS will develop along the trough with dry lightning possible.
Light, northeasterly winds prevail over the region as a high pressure system is situated over western Nebraska. Throughout the short term period, the high pressure system will slowly track southeast, continuing northeasterly flow in the region around 6-9kts during the day and dry conditions. The atmosphere remains relatively dry on Wednesday as ridging builds in at the sfc and aloft.
A cold front arrives Wednesday with slightly cooler weather.
Daytime highs will only be in the low to mid 80s due the amount of clouds, moisture, and expected afternoon rains. Array of guidance continues to indicate that the closed low will retrograde westward into TX/SW US, while the upper trough deepens over the NE and Mid Atlantic coast, through the period. Ensemble guidance continues in good agreement that the east coast upper trough remains over the east coast, with NW flow aloft for our region, and PW values near climatological normals. By late in the forecast period, the upper trough is expected to lift, with weak high pressure axis aloft shifting into our region.
945 PM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridge axis extends over central MT-WY with clouds moving upward on west side, but not coming down the east side, leaving clear skies over the forecast area, although light smoke is moving across the area. Lee trof has deepened over eastern MT with gusty southeast winds over northeastern WY and extreme northwestern SD. Thermal ridge remains over the area Tuesday before a surface trof moves through. Southeast winds will increase over the SD plains as pressure gradient tightens ahead of the trof.
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 The slight chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms for the mountains and deserts will continue with seasonal high temperatures and warmer than seasonal nights.
538 AM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Western CONUS ridge will remain in place supporting hot and mainly dry conds in the period most places. Weak ridge topping impulses combined with bouts of monsoon moisture will support isold TS at times. Convection will shift slowly east with the trough this evening eventually becoming elevated and driven by an expected LLJ, with any activity mainly confined to NW SD overnight. Weaker CIN will be in place over the Black Hills, with diurnal heating and combined LL moisture sufficient for isolated storms via mid ridge convergence. Isolated TS will develop along the trough with dry lightning possible.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 68 87 70 89 / 70 30 40 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 67 89 69 91 / 30 10 30 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 84 66 89 68 90 / 30 10 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 63 88 64 89 / 10 10 10 0 10.
1057 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 High pressure will offer near seasonal temperatures and mainly dry conditions through the middle of the week.
As of 08Z Tuesday morning the western US midlevel ridge axis was advancing eastward and will play a role in warmer temperatures for our area later this week.
Isolated rain showers have occurred over the far west mountains with very isolated showers at the lower elevations.
538 AM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Today will see the previously dominant ridge of high pressure tilt eastward with its axis settling over the Northern Plains. We're not out of the woods yet as far as gusty outflow winds go with an inverted-V profile still evident on forecast soundings for many of the lower valley locations. The upper level ridge will begin to flatten on Wednesday as a broad Pacific trough elongates off the northwestern CONUS and progresses inland.
The period will start with a weak cold front exiting KY to the south, and a prior frontal boundary stalled and decaying over the Deep South. The cold front will be supported by an upper trough over the northeast CONUS, of which we will reside under its southwest periphery.
Otherwise, an upper-level ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains will continue to take on an increasingly positive tilt into the Midwest today, resulting in large-scale subsidence via mid-level height rises dominating with dry conditions. At low levels, an associated anticyclone positioned across the Central Plains will favor northerly flow as well, helping to maintain a seasonably cool airmass across the region with high temps in the mid to upper 80sF-- near to slightly below average. Eastward expansion of the ridge is expected to persist through Wednesday; however, a weak back door cold front will surge southwestward across IL before stalling near or west of the MS River by evening.
610 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 (Today and tonight) Subsidence behind the departing upper-level trough will generally stifle convective development today. On the smaller scale, though, ripples in the flow aloft, plus the high moisture content of the lower atmosphere may successfully crank out a few (light) showers mainly over the southern half of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Relatively cool (for summer in the southern Plains) conditions will start to give way to more typical readings, as a warm-up begins today under an expanding upper-level ridge to our northwest.
808 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Mid level troughing stretches from the west Gulf to the Mid- Atlantic states while ridging extends across the state and eastern Gulf from the Atlantic today. At the surface broad Atlantic high pressure reaches west to the Gulf with an axis meandering near Lake Okeechobee. Highs reach the lower 90s with heat indices of 101-104. Atlantic high pressure stretches across the waters for the next few days with an axis that meanders over the south half of the state.
623 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 (Today and tonight) Dry and slightly cooler weather is in store for today.
The approach of low pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will create opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, the timing of which is based on the HRRR model. Elongated mid-level troughiness over the BRO CWFA will transition to closed 500 mb low pressure that will move north of the region and into central Texas.
520 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Dry weather is expected until a crossing cold front returns shower and thunderstorm chances to the area tonight and Wednesday.
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Current RAP analysis continues to highlight the upper level ridge over much of Colorado and Wyoming. Latest satellite imagery this morning continues to show the moisture stream west of the ridge axis over Utah and Idaho associated with a few showers over the area. Expecting convection to develop over the higher terrain this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms continuing into early evening.
Chances look highest across northern Minnesota where temperatures aloft will be cooler, but another possible region of development is along and north of the I-94 corridor where a weak surface boundary appears to stall out. Temperatures would likely be several degrees cooler in the mid 80s if widespread cloud cover is able to develop this morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, highs today only look to reach the mid to upper 70s across portions of western Wisconsin, as northeasterly flow brings cooler air off of Lake Superior.
Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area today due to northeasterly flow behind yesterday's cold front. High pressure developing over Ontario will keep most of the CWA dry today. A few locations around the Brainerd Lakes may see scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening due to the cold front becoming stationary south of the area. Expect high temps in the 70s for most locations today as northeast flow advects cooler air from Lake Superior inland.
608 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 A weak surface frontal boundary/trough was draped across the UP of Michigan through northern MN. The afternoon hours contains the highest potential for precipitation with strongest mid-level vorticity advection and low- level moisture advection during this time.
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Upper ridge is shifting eastward, bringing slightly less hot air into eastern Montana. Ridge flattens out for Wednesday with temperatures expected to mostly remain below the century mark.
319 AM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Current RAP analysis continues to highlight the upper level ridge over much of Colorado and Wyoming. Latest satellite imagery this morning continues to show the moisture stream west of the ridge axis over Utah and Idaho associated with a few showers over the area. Expecting convection to develop over the higher terrain this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms continuing into early evening.
831 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Dry weather is expected until a crossing cold front returns shower and thunderstorm chances to the area tonight and Wednesday.
A weak cold front is drifting into the region today while an upper low is in vicinity.
High pressure aloft over the Four Corners will continue to anchor the weather map through the short term portion of the forecast. Troughing will be locked in over the northeast, and an orphaned trough/low will remain just to our south and extend southwest to eastern Texas. An impulse will move through the northeastern trough Tuesday night into Wednesday, and that will attempt to push a backdoor cold front southwest toward our southwest Indiana counties by Wednesday afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Dry and slightly cooler weather is in store for today.
346 AM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Today will see the previously dominant ridge of high pressure tilt eastward with its axis settling over the Northern Plains. We're not out of the woods yet as far as gusty outflow winds go with an inverted-V profile still evident on forecast soundings for many of the lower valley locations. The upper level ridge will begin to flatten on Wednesday as a broad Pacific trough elongates off the northwestern CONUS and progresses inland.
Waves of monsoonal moisture continue to rotate around the ridge of high pressure anchored in the Four Corners region. Wednesday still looks like a transition day as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
The mid/upper ridge over the Rockies and Southwest is progged to expand eastward as we move through the upcoming week. This will begin a slow and steady warming trend with highs rising into the lower 90s by Wed. The mid/upper ridge is progged to meander across the region resulting hot and dry weather conditions across the region.
Otherwise, a ridge axis that is situated across the central Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, will weaken and begin retreating eastward. Ridge axis located north of our area will weaken and begin retreating eastward.
348 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 The upper low continues to churn over the Mid-South this afternoon, as seen from GOES east Water Vapor Imagery. The upper low will continue to influence the weather through Wednesday as it slowly retrogrades west. The upper level ridge will build in across the central United States by this weekend.
1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 The mid/upper ridge over the Rockies and Southwest is progged to expand eastward as we move through the upcoming week. This will begin a slow and steady warming trend with highs rising into the lower 90s by Wed. The mid/upper ridge is progged to meander across the region resulting hot and dry weather conditions across the region.
202 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 High pressure remains in control through today. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday.
A drier period begins Fri as the ridge to our SE flattens and monsoon moisture gets shunted to the south, at least for a few days.
128 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 High pressure remains in control through today. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday.
It could limit the amount of heating which will lead to highs only rising into the low to mid 80s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 87 70 89 71 / 30 40 10 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 89 69 91 70 / 20 10 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 68 90 69 / 10 10 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 88 64 89 65 / 10 10 0 10 10.
/issued 808 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021/ Mid level troughing stretches from the west Gulf to the Mid- Atlantic states while ridging extends across the state and eastern Gulf from the Atlantic today. At the surface broad Atlantic high pressure reaches west to the Gulf with an axis meandering near Lake Okeechobee. Highs reach the lower 90s with heat indices of 101-104. Atlantic high pressure stretches across the waters for the next few days with an axis that meanders over the south half of the state.