Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPS IN THE MID/LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARMING UP CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS THE N-S JET OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. VALLEY TEMPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THEN MTN TOP TEMPS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW AS STRONG RIDGE AT MIDLVLS BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY AND WARM TO START THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW.
HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW PUSHING LINE OF STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATE PM. HAVE ALSO HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY OVER THE WARMER WATERS SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WHICH MAY BRUSH THE COASTS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE LATE TONIGHT.
941 PM MST THU JAN 21 2016 CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED LOCATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO COOL QUICKER THAN FORECAST. WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS BELOW THE FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SOME WARMING. TALL UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER COLORADO ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE STATE.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY HOWEVER FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH MUCH OF EASTERN ND SEEING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
IN ADDITION, AN ANALYSIS OF THE DUCTING FUNCTION ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TONIGHT, THE LOWS FOR FRIDAY MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. E TO NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH MSL AND HSV BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE N AND NW BTWN 22/12Z-22/20Z AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A RETURN TO IFR CIGS AND -RA AS THE UPPER LOW AND WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE (GUSTING TO 25 KTS). PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE COMPLETELY TO SNOW AFTER 23/00Z-23/01Z AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER A SUB FREEZING AIRMASS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS PUSHING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST COAST BY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN MOST TIER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THEREFORE VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO UPDATE THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL AT LEAST FEEL MORE LIKE THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY BY TONIGHT THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY AND SNOW FALL WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS AND BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO TREND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS.
The center of the low stays further back to the west and looks to keep directing moisture into the region. A second wave of rain is expected Friday night into Saturday morning from the center of the low as it move inland. Isolated thunderstorms may occur as the low moves inland late at night and early in the morning. Winds will increase more with the center of the low moving through than with this current front. As the low moves east away from the area showers will taper off Saturday night.
301 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 THE REGION IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING.
WITH THE TRI SOUNDING ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING AND TYS ABOVE FREEZING UP TO 750 MB FROM 12Z UNTIL 18Z.
AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. RH FIELDS IN NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 913 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFF THE COAST AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST. 925MB/850MB WIND FIELDS SEEM TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE EAST.
TONIGHT THE H500 RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP AT H850 IN EASTERN MONTANA. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ERODES THE INVERSION THERE MAY BE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD BUT WILL ADD PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT SINCE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST BEGINS TO ENTER THE PLAINS.
THIS BETWEEN EASTWARD ADVANCING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING EXTENSIVE WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND AT/BENEATH A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN A WEEKEND OF TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THE NORM. MORNING LOWS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
240 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR. THIS MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET WILL SATURATE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE. TONIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL ALLOW MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES LATE MON INTO TUE SHOULD A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY SOME LES. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL WEAK SHRTWVS TO MOVE THROUGH THE N CNTRL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION.
/issued 350 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) The upper trough over central and eastern Texas this afternoon will move into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Within this trough a closed low is developing over northeastern Texas, and will track across northern Louisiana tonight. Temperatures will be colder tonight with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s across some of our western and northwestern counties, to the lower 30s elsewhere.
347 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT 09Z OVER FAR NW MN. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS COVERING DVL-WAHPETON WESTWARD INTO CNDTRL AND WRN ND TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WITH TROUGH MOVING THRU WINDS WILL GO WEST.
STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE. LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
245 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 AS A MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WREAKS HAVOC OVER THE EASTERN U. WE WILL GET TO EXPERIENCE THE QUIET OF RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL U. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE OTHER THAN BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS MULTIPLE MODELS CAME IN WARMER.
* ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY * ROUGH SURF, RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION DEVELOPING GULF COAST * GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS * COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER SEASON SAT NIGHT/LOW WIND CHILLS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY, THEN RE-FORM/TRANSFER ENERGY AND INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT-SAT, PRODUCING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO OUR NATIONS CAPITAL. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, NOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF, WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, EXITING THE SE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH.
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS. WE STILL EXPECT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LUZERNE AND PIKE COUNTY.
413 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 CURRENTLY - A DEEPENING LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST - THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FRESH TO STRONG WEST BREEZES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
1231 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL END INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA.
955 PM MST THU JAN 21 2016 RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE UT-CO STATE LINE BY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CARRY PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH WORKS ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1233 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 PRECIPITATION FROM THE STRONG LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER IN OUR AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME ENHANCED NORTH WINDS NEAR BULLHEAD CITY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z.
WE COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES FALL OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. AS THE FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MOISTURE DIMINISHES WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.
313 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. GENERAL WK LL THERMAL TROUGH ACRS WRN LK ERIE WITHIN MARGINAL INVERSION HGTS ARGUE AGAINST FLURRIES DVLPG ACRS NW OH/NE THIS PD AND WILL HOLD W/PREDECESSORS OPINION. ROBUST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VERY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
1110 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARM UP. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HUGE PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST STORM. HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THE CLIMB TO AROUND 10C AT 850MB THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS 12Z SAT WHILE A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IS IN THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO SUN NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK RIDGES AND TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH OVER SW ONTARIO.
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS SHOWING ON RADAR FROM A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND.
1124 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT CLEARING LINE BISECTS DFW AIRPORT SITES OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE.
A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. FREEZING RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO 4 TO 8 INCHES DUE TO THE MIXING OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. DURING THIS TIME A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXITING THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA.
323 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
THEN THE COLD FRONT MOISTURE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. WITH THE WARM FRONT ON FRI NIGHT. UNLESS THE SLEET FORECAST CHANGES TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT MAY BE BREEZY SAT NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH.
238 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALLOWING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO TRANSLATE INTO POSITION OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A COOLER SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO PLACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM WYOMING TO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.
/issued 343 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Gusty northwest winds continue across west central TX this afternoon in the wake of this morning's Pacific cold front. Temperatures are in the mid 70s across the Big Country, but have warmed into the low/mid 80s across the Concho Valley and northwest Hill Country. Winds will become light from the north this evening, eventually becoming light and variable as the surface anticyclone moves across the southern Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures are anticipated once again, with afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s.
UPDATE: Have cancelled tornado watch 44 as cold front continues to push further into Illinois with storms weakening and moving out of CWA. A brief period of gusty west/northwest winds with gusts 30-40 knots is also likely for a couple of hours behind the cold front though these gusts should damped a bit with time. These SHRA shud dissipate/move out of the region by Midnight as the low continues to pull newd out of the area. The low levels look quite dry so thinking is just some sprinkles from mid level clouds.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 70S.
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND AT 9 PM. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 10 TO 20 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS LOW. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH FROM NEAR HARRISON. A COLD FRONT TRAILS THE TROUGH 80-100 MILES TO THE WEST.
THE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0230Z. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ 3PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MO. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL MID MARCH WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 74 45 71 / 20 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 73 44 67 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 73 44 68 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 72 42 65 / 10 20 10 10.
911 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
1104 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY QUICKLY DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE SLOWLY WOBBLING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THE CULPRIT IS AN EXTENDED LONG WAVE TROUGH SINKING INTO THE CONUS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
814 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
1006 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS APPROACHES NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
1041 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COLD FRONT AS OF 03Z WAS THROUGH ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE MLU TERMINAL. /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ ALTHOUGH NEITHER SOUNDING NOR MODEL DATA SUGGEST ANY POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW LA. WHERE FCST LOWS MUCH COOLER IN LOWER 40S.
1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 CURRENTLY - A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS IS RESULTING IN WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WEAK TO NO FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING VERY NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN. MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. WEAK AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO A RIDGE AXIS RUNNING ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
Very dry boundary layer has allowed for optimal radiational cooling this evening, with a temperature already near freezing here at the office. If clouds do not develop as forecast, then lows could be much cooler with clear skies and light winds.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN.
SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS.
WILL SEE INVERSION DISSIPATING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS LLJ ADVANCES EAST WITH ASSOCIATED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
646 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY QUICKLY DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE SLOWLY WOBBLING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THE CULPRIT IS AN EXTENDED LONG WAVE TROUGH SINKING INTO THE CONUS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
CLEAR SKIES NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
BUT IT IS LIKELY OFF THE SURFACE DOME DUE TO WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AREAS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ 3PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MO. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL MID MARCH WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
945 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 ALTHOUGH NEITHER SOUNDING NOR MODEL DATA SUGGEST ANY POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW LA. WHERE FCST LOWS MUCH COOLER IN LOWER 40S. COLD FRONT MOVG SOUTH OF I-30. /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AS OF 20Z. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS CAN BE EXPECTED.
1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HAVE PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 7 AM. EXPECTING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL H850 BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH MORE SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER MISSOURI. AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY. LOWS WILL FALL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH COOLER LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE MID 30S.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY JUST OFF THE COAST.
TRENDS IN CURRENT TAFS STILL LOOK GOOD BUT HAVE UPDATED FRONTAL TIMING WITH COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE AND ON TOP OF CONROE AS OF 04Z.
00 UTC surface analysis shows high pressure east of the Florida Peninsula and a cold front across the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Overnight, expect it to continue to be warm, generally in the low to mid 60s.
712 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
803 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AREAS.
WOULD THINK THE FOG THREAT WILL LESSEN LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF LATE NIGHT WARM FRONT. STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT.