Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will recover very little today under the cold airmass with highs only topping off in the low to mid 40s with some upper 40s to the south. And, lows this morning are progged to dip into the low 30s across the interior west with upper 30s/low 40s over the remainder of the forecast area. This trend toward warmer conditions is supported by the positive height anomalies presented by the EPS, GEFS, and the GEPS. Expect lows to dip into the 20s away from the lakeshores but stay moderated by the warmer lakes by the lakeshores.
619 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A weak ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the next 24 hours, slowly shifting east into the Missouri Valley, by this afternoon and tonight. Expect temperatures near seasonal normals, with breezy conditions for central KS, as surface winds on the backside of the ridge slowly increase.
(Today through Thursday) Weakening high pressure over the eastern US will lose its influence on South Florida today as an area of low pressure with its associated fronts moves through the eastern US. The upper-lvl system will be fairly low amplitude so the cold front associated with it will likely stall and weaken prior to reaching our area.
Mid-level quasi zonal flow is expected today, becoming more southwesterly tomorrow over the area as troughing digs through the Rockies. By tonight, winds shift more easterly and we'll see a gradual increase in moisture with low temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than we are seeing this morning. Expect more clouds in the area tomorrow which will keep temps again mainly in the lower 80s.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front that passed the region yesterday is found from the SE Atlantic coast into the eastern Great Lakes. Behind this front high pressure stretches from south central Canada to northeast Mexico this afternoon with a cool and dry Canadian air mass filling the central sections of the U. Tonight into Thursday the ridge across the central sections of the country will continue east, but not before giving our area another clear and cool night. The ridge will move east of the Mississippi Valley tomorrow which will begin the return flow locally by afternoon.
The low will then deepen slightly as it reaches Farmington, New Mexico by 18Z. Models have a general consensus of having the low over Cline's Corner by 00Z tomorrow evening. The speed and location of the low will be one factor in helping or hindering the possibility for convection along the dryline before 00Z tomorrow evening. The FV3 is the most bullish in terms of afternoon precip with virga showers developing by 18Z behind the dryline with coverage increasing just before 00Z as the cold front moves into the region.
136 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Low pressure will track to the Great Lakes today, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a few showers.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 124 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into tonight as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid- and upper 20s across central and north-central Wisconsin and in the lower and mid-30s for the remainder of the area. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower and mid-50s.
Based on forecast soundings, the lower atmosphere should be warm enough to prevent any snow and keep the precipitation type as rain only.
The western edge of the low stratus can be seen on satellite imagery making steady eastward progress across Indiana and western KY. Thursday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies, a 10 mph northeast wind, and afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
151 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Cooler/drier tonight as a cold front exited east. High pressure and drier weather builds in by Thursday. Low pressure system ejects northeast of the Great Lakes this evening, pushing a cold front far east. Highs for Thursday will generally reach the 61 degree mark across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s highest elevations of our northeast mountains.
136 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 The cold front and associated showers have finally slid east of Luce County, but some light showers have popped up in the wake of the front from Baraga County to Alger and northern Delta counties. This trend toward warmer conditions is supported by the positive height anomalies presented by the EPS, GEFS, and the GEPS. Expect lows to dip into the 20s away from the lakeshores but stay moderated by the warmer lakes by the lakeshores.
The cold front is just about all the way through the eastern highlands this afternoon and cooler air is moving in now along with our gusty winds. Precipitation looks to wrap up by midnight across the entire area and the highest snow totals by the end of this event are still expected to be up in the mountains. Overall, Thursday will be a much quieter weather day in comparison as ridging builds back in to the area. Some afternoon sunshine will help warm most of the area back into the low to mid 40s, which is still well below average for this time of the year.
1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today through Thursday) Cold front has moved through the area, and showers are well off to the east. A few light showers have developed overnight with the low cloud deck, but shouldnt amount to much across the area. Temps will be cooler today thanks to the front, with westerly winds becoming more northwesterly later today. High temps will be in the low 50s on the Plateau up to the low 60s west.
Clear skies will persist through tomorrow night, with afternoon temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow than what they were today.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Upper-air analysis from this afternoon is showing the low pressure system responsible for our recent severe weather and rainfall continuing to move into the northeast. At the surface, high pressure remains in place across the region which is responsible for these beautiful blue skies. The upper-air trough currently digging into the Pacific Northwest will gradually push south and east, reaching the Four Corners region and closing off by Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night, this closed low will make it to the southwestern Texas Panhandle.
(Now through Thursday) Upper level high pressure will dominate the weather pattern in the near term forecast.
25 of in inch will be possible, with the highest QPF values falling generally across eastern Boyd, Holt and Wheeler counties. As for precipitation type in the overnight hours, there is low probabilities for precipitation to fall as snow, and temperatures will remain mostly above freezing where precipitation is falling, thus leading to high confidence all precipitation will fall as rain.
Then fair weather persists under sfc and upper ridging into the weekend.
However, the forecast becomes a bit more tricky towards the end of the forecast period on Thursday afternoon as both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a strong low pressure system moving in aloft.
Becoming Dry and Cooler. Do not expect the lake effect to be long lived as high pressure builds into the area, resulting in inversion heights continuing to fall below 3500 feet and low-level flow trending westerly. High pressure will continue to build overhead Thursday and begin to slowly move eastward. This high pressure will dominate northern Michigan's weather through the end of this forecast period and beyond providing some decent fall weather and giving northern Michiganders more time to do any outside work before winter weather decides to move in.
1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today and tonight) The Southern Plains will be between weather systems today as the next upper-level trough approaches the Four Corners region. Light and variable winds will become southerly as lee cyclogenesis occurs in response to the approaching trough.
The trough dropping through just east of the Basin and Range will enhance northerly flow across the region today and bring a drop in the temperatures for tonight and early tomorrow. Precipitation is unlikely as the best forcing with the trough is well east of the Sierra and western Nevada. The forecast for the rest of the week and into the weekend is looking pretty quiet with a mix of a weak ridge and zonal flow across northern NV and CA.
134 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 The cold front and associated showers have finally slid east of Luce County, but some light showers have popped up in the wake of the front from Baraga County to Alger and northern Delta counties. This trend toward warmer conditions is supported by the positive height anomalies presented by the EPS, GEFS, and the GEPS. Expect lows to dip into the 20s away from the lakeshores but stay moderated by the warmer lakes by the lakeshores.
1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today through Thursday Night) To begin the period, high pressure is parked over the Natural State giving way to clear skies and drier conditions. Until then, expect cooler, more seasonable temperatures as high pressure controls the weather pattern through at least Thursday. Winds are also expected to remain gusty through this afternoon as the low pressure system, located in the Ohio Valley, continues to push further away from the state.
145 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2022 At this hour WV imagery depicts trough over the northern Rockies with nearly zonal flow over the Northern Plains. As we head into the evening hours, the aforementioned trough progresses eastward and deepens, digging into Colorado and becoming a closed upper low over the Southern Plains. A stray snow shower or two in the higher elevations of the Black Hills can't be ruled out.
Localized pockets of fog in the James and Big Sioux Valleys have all but dissipated, as winds have become southerly out ahead of an incoming low pressure system under sunny skies. Temps are falling into the low to mid 20s in the coldest areas under mostly clear skies. Signals point to best precip chances during the day Thursday confined to the eastern CWA where the low-level jet resides at least for the morning hours. Once the trough moves out Thursday evening, a low amplitude ridge pattern develops and is the dominant feature for the period.
1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A MVFR deck over the TN River Valley is quickly eroding as high pressure builds into the region.
348 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A cold front will move across the region this evening. A large area of high pressure will then build in across the region with fair weather expected into the weekend. The rain will exit before midnight but some clouds will linger through much of the night as the cold front and wind shift track through. Winds diminish Thursday night and with a clear sky and strong low level ridging building in from Canada, temperatures should fall to near freezing or below freezing in most areas.
220 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Tonight and tomorrow: A brief period of quasi-zonal flow aloft will quickly transition to southwesterlies ahead of a closed upper low diving through the Four Corners and towards the Southern Plains. Temperatures will quickly fall after sunset as the boundary layer decouples with overnight lows bottoming out in the low 40s across much of the area. Temperatures will quickly rebound after sunrise tomorrow with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s as warm advection begins to return ahead of the upstream wave.
(Today and tonight) Convection ongoing mainly in the Florida panhandle with the associated cold front through southeast Alabama into the western Florida panhandle. High pressure sets up later today and lows tonight will fall into the 40s with the exception of the low 50s in the Florida Big Bend. A cold front will pass across the waters through late morning, followed by a shift to fresh and strong northerly breezes. Calmer winds and seas return by Thursday as high pressure settles over the Mid- Atlantic states. Another cold front will push into the region by the weekend, which may lead to cautionary conditions returning to all marine zones once again. Cold front will progress through the area this morning, exiting the Florida Big Bend by late this morning.
Water vapor shows split flow aloft with the cut off upper low spinning over the Intermountain West. South to southwesterly surface winds providing warm air advection and good mixing should help boost temperatures into the mid 50s tomorrow, with some slightly cooler temps in west central MN where clouds will hang on longer. Southwesterly surface winds will continue into Thursday night and should help keep temps above freezing even with decreasing clouds.
Trough energy clipping NE Nevada this afternoon continues to produce gusty winds across much of northern and central NV, along with light snow showers to mainly just mountains across Elko County. Showers will end and gusty winds will diminish into this evening as the trough energy exits SE into Utah. A cold northwesterly flow aloft in combination with diminish clouds will result in significantly cooler low temperatures tonight with most valley locations dropping into the low to mid teens.
Despite the drier air, most of which remains aloft, cooler air rushing in from the NW is keeping boundary layer RHs low enough for some low-level clouds in NW portions of the forecast area which have slowly eroded away through the morning and afternoon as dry air mixes downward from aloft. As it does so, we'll stay locked in a steady weather pattern with gradual increases towards near-normal temperatures occurring as high temperatures tomorrow rebound into the low 70s.
Discussion: Cold front is east of the area with drier and cooler air arriving from the northwest. Low/mid-level trough continues to move eastward with a continued inversion setting up the low cloud deck across the region this afternoon and into tonight. As this trough axis shifts east late tonight, a gradual clearing late tonight and into Thursday morning is expected. Increasing upper level heights across the Southeast CONUS and an amplifying trough across the Great Plains will result in southwest flow by Thursday afternoon. As high pressure begins to shift eastward, we get a more southerly and southeasterly low-level flow with afternoon temperatures increasing to near seasonal normals.
226 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Upper trough was pushing through Idaho into Wyoming this afternoon, with moisture and instability wrapping into the region. Mostly dry conditions will prevail on Thursday, as high pressure begins to build into the region in the wake of the upper trough. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with highs mainly in the 50s. As high pressure builds into the region, surface pressure gradients will tighten along the western foothills, becoming strong Thursday evening and night.
As the aforementioned high pressure builds in, clouds will begin to clear from the west to east as we go into the evening and overnight. Lows will be in the low/mid 30s across southern IN/north central KY with mid/upper 30s across the south and east where some cloud cover could linger through the first half of the overnight keeping temperatures warmer. To our west, a digging trough looks to close off an upper low somewhere in the CO/NM area, which will eventually be the source for our next rain chances. We should see plenty of sunshine on Thursday thanks to high pressure, but the cool NE flow will help keep temps a touch cooler than average, with forecast highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A weak ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the next 24 hours, slowly shifting east into the Missouri Valley, by this afternoon and tonight. Expect temperatures near seasonal normals, with breezy conditions for central KS, as surface winds on the backside of the ridge slowly increase. The developing nocturnal low level jet will result in LLWS for the higher terrain of central Kansas, including the KRSL/KGBD terminals tonight.
115 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Lingering scattered showers will end overnight in the wake of a cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperature return with high pressure for Thursday and into the weekend. The surface cold front will exit the CWA during the mid- afternoon hours. Scattered showers will continue into the evening, mainly north of Pittsburgh due to marginal lake enhancement, as well as along the ridges due to upslope flow.
1213 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A MVFR deck over the TN River Valley is quickly eroding as high pressure builds into the region.
Water vapor satellite pics showing the center of a cold upper low tracking through SE Oregon this morning. Much of the precipitation development is on the north and east side of the low center. As the low center digs southeast today steadier precipitation will scatter out, with further shower development focused over the mountains, though valleys keep a slight chance of rain/graupel showers.
238 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Issued 238 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: As a broad area of high pressure moves into the Great Lakes Region from the Central Plains, skies across Wisconsin will clear and winds will diminish. This area of high pressure will eventually become centered over the state tonight into Thursday.
Satellite imagery shows low pressure over southern Idaho. This low pressure system will continue to track southeastwards towards western Wyoming by this evening. Slightly milder air will work its way up over the Northern Rockies on Thursday into the weekend as a slight ridge builds.
A potent jet streak will round the base of this trough. Return flow ramps up as lee troughing develops in response to this trough with rapid moisture return expected. Eventually, the quickly advancing Pacific Cold Front will meet this dryline and erupt into a line of thunderstorms.
Shower activity will be focused over the western Alleghenies this evening given proximity of departing upper trough and upslope low level flow. Max POPs are over the NW mtns and Laurel ridges. Sfc cold front has reached southwest PA as of 18Z and is fcst to accelerate eastward across CPA into NJ by 00Z/8PM EDT. The NW winds will direct noticeably cooler air into CPA with MinTs fcst to drop 8 to 15F NoN into the upper 30s along the Alleghenies to the upper 40s in the Lower Susq metros (still +5-10F above climo in most places).
Clear skies associated with the high will yield to cloudy conditions tonight as high-level moisture advects into the area from the west. Cooler temperatures should be confined to where high clouds will be thickest, primarily in the northern half of the CWA.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 233 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A passing cold front will bring a few showers to the region into early this evening. From later tonight into the upcoming weekend, a large area of high pressure will build in to result in dry weather.
Southerly winds will be strongest across the higher elevations of the Prairie Coteau during the morning and early evening with gusts over 30 mph, but grassland fire danger will only be moderate across the CWA due to higher RH. Temperatures on Thursday should be held in check by cloud cover near/along and east of the James River Valley with highs in the low 50s. By Thursday evening and overnight, a now cut-off low continues to dive south towards/across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, while the jet stream sets up north of the CWA.
However, the high pressure should stick around into late day on Thursday, keeping winds light until then. However, some locations near the Atlantic and Gulf shores may see low temperatures in the low 70s.
250 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 High pressure stretches from along the eastern Nebraska and western Iowa boarder southward into eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Quiet weather is on tap across the area over the next 24 hours as high pressure moves eastward across the area. High clouds are forecast to overspread the area this evening and continue into Thursday as a disturbance associated trough moves into Minnesota. Also on Thursday, departing high pressure to our east and a developing storm system in the Plains will result in an tightening pressure gradient across the Iowa.
With the cold front pushing through the area last night and this morning, cooler temperatures will not be noticeable until Thursday morning, as low temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid 40s to low 50s areawide.
The showers associated with the cold front have finally begun to move onshore along the nature coast.
Mostly sunny skies prevail with current air temperatures in most Keys island communities in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures down a few degrees from this morning (currently mid to upper 60s). Deep ridging is in control, the atmosphere is dry and stable aloft, and this is expected to be the case for quite awhile. A look ahead reveals that deep ridging will govern all large-scale flow at this location/latitude.
1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Lingering showers east of I-55 will taper off early this morning, and will be replaced by clearing skies as high pressure moves into the area from the west.
1106 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Localized pockets of fog in the James and Big Sioux Valleys have all but dissipated, as winds have become southerly out ahead of an incoming low pressure system under sunny skies. Temps are falling into the low to mid 20s in the coldest areas under mostly clear skies. Signals point to best precip chances during the day Thursday confined to the eastern CWA where the low-level jet resides at least for the morning hours. Once the trough moves out Thursday evening, a low amplitude ridge pattern develops and is the dominant feature for the period.
There is an upper closed low circulation now located over over Idaho. There is a decent cold front expected to push southward across the plains after 06Z overnight. For temperatures, Thursday highs are 4-6 C cooler than today's.
High pressure will continue east across the Lower Great Lakes on Thursday, inducing a turn to northeast winds.
With the cold front now east of the area, shower activity will be focused over the western Alleghenies in upslope low level flow. Max POPs are over the NW mtns and Laurel ridges over the next few hours, with a decrease in PoPs after midnight. Wind gusts overnight will gust in the 20-25 mph range as cooler air is advected in from the NW.
TWH Upper trough was pushing through Idaho into Wyoming this afternoon, with moisture and instability wrapping into the region. Mostly dry conditions will prevail on Thursday, as high pressure begins to build into the region in the wake of the upper trough. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with highs mainly in the 50s. As high pressure builds into the region, surface pressure gradients will tighten along the western foothills, becoming strong Thursday evening and night.
Nighttime Microphysics is detecting a swath of clouds extending from the Gulf of Mexico across Central Florida, which are associated with a cold front. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 70s, and dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s. These areas will likely see temperatures drop below 70 degrees, while the rest of the land areas will remain near 70 to the lower 70s.
556 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A passing cold front will bring a few showers to the region into early this evening. From later tonight into the upcoming weekend, a large area of high pressure will build in to result in dry weather.
503 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2022 At this hour WV imagery depicts trough over the northern Rockies with nearly zonal flow over the Northern Plains. As we head into the evening hours, the aforementioned trough progresses eastward and deepens, digging into Colorado and becoming a closed upper low over the Southern Plains. A stray snow shower or two in the higher elevations of the Black Hills can't be ruled out.