Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOW CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST HAS BEEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. IT WILL TAKE THE HEATING OF THE DAY TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS COVER. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH FLOW AT THE COAST WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OR ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. N WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE E PACIFIC AND AN INLAND THERMAL TROF SHARPENS.
1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. USED THE HIRES MODELS TO UPDATE THE CURRENT POP TRENDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS. WE TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS A WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
919 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO MID WEEK.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 952 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
939 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ONE LAST WARM DAY. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SWRN US/BAJA AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO SERN ARIZONA BY LATE TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. FINALLY FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TODAY SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID 70S OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.
An upper level trough is currently located across southern California early this morning, with upper level ridging occurring across the central U.
MAX THETA AT THE SECONDARY LAYER SUGGESTS TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. ALREADY TEMPS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER THAN ARE INDICATED IN THE GRIDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCKED IN OVER THE ARKLAMISS IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW AN INCH.
BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED HUGGING THE SERN LA COASTLINE WHICH HAS NECESSITATED AN ADDITION OF SLIM POPS FOR LOWER ACADIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY KEEP SLIDING WNWWD AROUND THE SERN CONUS RIDGE. AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-GULF AMPLIFIES NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WEST CONUS TROF.
930 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Warmer and drier weather is expected over interior NorCal this week. Water vapor shows anticyclonic flow increasing over Norcal as the deep closed low to our SE makes its way slowly into the Desert SW. The positively tilted ridge will bring warmer temps and locally breezy conditions to Norcal the next couple of days. The formation of the radiative inversion overnite has resulted in the decoupling of the lower atmosphere. the inversion will be wiped out and mixing will allow for the higher momentum air aloft to be mixed down. High pressure will prevail over the region this week. The high level cloudiness may begin to spread into our CWA late Wed/Wed nite. Ridging rebuilds on Fri.
659 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN US. WHILE A WEAKER UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTANTIC COAST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST MOVES EASTWARD AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW BY LATE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY.
605 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LEE TROUGH FORMED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS SHIFTED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ABOUT A WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.
1122 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY-WARM AIR THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY WITH A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO AZ TONIGHT. AS THIS UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS AZ WEDNESDAY EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UT.
RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED AND THE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST. UPPER RIDGE NOW MOVING IN WITH DRIER NNELY FLOW ALOFT. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TODAY WILL BRING DRYING TO THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL BUT WET GROUND WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
816 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
621 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 USED THE HIRES MODELS TO UPDATE THE CURRENT POP TRENDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS. WE TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS A WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN FAVORABLE INSOLATION. WITH GREATEST LOWERING THU NIGHT AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF ANCHORED FROM MI THUMB INTO NERN CWA AND 1033 MB ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NORTH OF LK SUPR. BLENDED POPS A BIT EGGREGIOUS IN BRINGING POP/WX FRI NIGHT AMID DEVOLUTION OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME/STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING INTO GRTLKS AS SWRN SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH PLAINS IN NEG TILTED FASHION.
904 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
1031 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
936 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015/ THE SURFACE TO 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SE TEXAS WILL RECEDE EASTWARD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND BAJA CA MOVES EASTWARD. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT WEST SLOWLY EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER AZ ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SE TEXAS. THE LOW WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
727 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
906 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION.
906 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS HELPING TO BUILD UPPER RIDGING IN OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYERED DRYING AND SUPPRESSION FROM THE RIDGING WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE GULF AND INLAND WATERWAYS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
1218 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO MID WEEK.
349 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 THE MSL ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS.
306 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN APPROACH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP PERIODS OF -SN GOING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z/FRI.
A warm front extending southeast from a storm system over the plains will lift northeast across the region today. In the process it will drag a cold front into the western sections of our CWA by midnight tonight, but it's eastward progress will effectively be temporarily brought to a halt due to a surface developing on the front to our southwest.
/ISSUED 954 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016/ MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS.
/ISSUED 921 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016/ MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE SHOWERS AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA TODAY AND BRING COOLER AIR AND LOW CLOUDS WITH IT. AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT, A MIX OF RAIN SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MOST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
1026 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES BY 10Z FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
1237 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BECOMING SW-W BY EARLY FRI EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
430 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WI TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI BY EVE. PAVEMENT SENSOR IN MARQUETTE COUNTY REPORTS A TEMPERATURE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT 08Z SO FREEZING RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
Minor update to better capture the highest likelihood of shower activity as it traverses west to east across the forecast area tonight. Several models seem to focus the highest rain totals over much of western Ky this evening, but even there, amounts will not be very heavy, with less than 1/3 inch most locations. Most operational models also agree on generally dry warm sector conditions Friday afternoon and evening, as our region gets into some mid/upper level ridging in between H50 short waves.
SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION.
1006 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 Minor update to better capture the highest likelihood of shower activity as it traverses west to east across the forecast area tonight. Several models seem to focus the highest rain totals over much of western Ky this evening, but even there, amounts will not be very heavy, with less than 1/3 inch most locations. Most operational models also agree on generally dry warm sector conditions Friday afternoon and evening, as our region gets into some mid/upper level ridging in between H50 short waves.
Clouds were clearing out of some areas in the dry slot on the south side of the upper low. Not as confident that the low cigs will scatter out tomorrow afternoon. /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016/ Upper low slowly lifting east northeast this evening into southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri later tonight.
THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN ARIZONA AREA EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HELPS TO BRING US OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAIN. THIS STORM SYSTEM DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHARPENS WITH A EASTERLY WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND WINDS ALOFT VEERING BEHIND A 925-850 MB TROUGH.
351 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY TONIGHT WILL CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BTR AT ABOUT 7AM SAT MORNING AND FINISH MOVING THROUGH PQL BY NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT WILL BE BACK BY SAT EVENING AROUND DARK AS THE 700MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. CLEARING WILL BEGIN SUN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS AND WE WILL SEE THE NORMAL STRATOCU DECK FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET AND FAIRLY DEEP UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH AXIS PRODUCING THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
BUT NO FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST NOTED AND ROADS/SIDEWALKS ARE NOT ICY. STILL FREEZING DRIZZLE IN MUCH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. AND HEAVIEST FREEZING DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 20F LOWER 30F DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DRY LAYER ABOVE MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER. AND KEPT THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ROADS POSSIBLY BECOMING SLICK. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
231 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TODAY.
304 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN KANSAS NEAR KEMP. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE THICKER FOG WAS CONFINED NEAR THE INVERTED TROF ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IOWA. FOG WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS THE INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE AT AND NEAR THE INVERTED TROF THROUGH SUNSET. COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
1136 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING 70M HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW AT 500MB. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AS WELL AS IN THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS ARE RUNNING IN THE RANGE OF 33 TO 36 DEGREES UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN GENERALLY BELOW 2000 FEET. KPDT RADAR LOOP INDICATES ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS IN WASHINGTON. I REMOVED PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THIS EVENING AND ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS.
AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. /ISSUED 939 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016/ A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTH MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
323 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
1024 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. WITH THE CHANGE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHEAST/NORTH BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS ABOVE. WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING ELONGATED AS THE ACTUAL CENTER PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS UP INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. AS A WEAK LOW ON A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1130 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 828 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016/ THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC LEAF OF A NOW OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND S. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN SOME PLACES HAVE RISEN OR HELD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1218 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS WL BE OVR THE CWA TONIGHT WITH NR CALM WINDS. NO PCPN EXPECTED TOMORROW AS H5 RIDGE AXIS BISECTS CWA BY THE END OF THE PD.
1248 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPERIENCING A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH.
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BUT AGAIN DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS. AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WITHIN UPPER NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF REMAINING FA. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING H85 WINDS OF AROUND 35KTS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS COOLER FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
842 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY STATE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WED COULD EXCEED ONE INCH IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
608 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/ BENIGN AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT TO WEST-NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE NEXT MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF SHARPER UPPER TROUGH PASSING OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. RMCQUEEN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. GUSTY MID-MORNING WINDS WILL EASE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
A cold front will sweep across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday, but temperatures behind the front will still remain near the seasonal normals.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
75 /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/ THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SHIFTING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
921 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS HAVE BEEN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE STRONGER WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. TOWARDS MORNING AND TOMORROW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING WITH PWV VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR TODAY SO FAR IS 80 DEGREES.
STRONG 850MB WINDS TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE STACKED UPPER LOW MOVES IN. BUT WITH THE LOW NOT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF. WINDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY HOWEVER IN THE STABLE POST COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS.
THE FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC HEIGHT PATTERN AS A SHALLOW 5H TUESDAY TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF THIS EXITING LOW INTO THE SE'ERN U. WEAK RIDGING OR QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD AT MID-WEEK THAT WILL BACK TOMORROW'S OFFSHORE WINDS MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY. A GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE WESTERN U.