Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Over the next several days the subtropical ridge retreats eastward as a short wave trough moves into the western states. An upper level low is located over central Arizona on water vapor satellite imagery this morning. This low will slowly drift northeastward out of the state with drier air moving in behind the system. The best dynamics for showers and thunderstormstoday will be north and east of the low center bringing higher precipitation chances for the northern third of the state and the White Mountains region.
248 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1005mb low over western Iowa, with warm front lifting northward into south-central Illinois along a Quincy to Effingham line.
151 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 North winds in the wake of earlier cold frontal passage will diminish in the late afternoon hours and remain light overnight. Generally ridging will persist aloft over the central plains on Thursday. Moderate instability will be in place by peak afternoon heating but deep layer shear will be limited to 20-30kts due to the ridge aloft.
/Issued 338 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016/ Broad eastern states trough puts GA in a northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge strengthens over the southeast on Thursday and forecast precipitable water expected to be near an inch or less.
239 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The heat is on! Mid to upper 90s being reported across much of the area this afternoon as a pre-frontal thermal ridge comprised of 850-mb temps ranging from 2-3 standard deviations above normal moves over the area. currently heat headlines will remain in place trough 02z with no changes needed at the present time. Overnight lows this evening will vary widely with mid/upper 70s expected south of Route 50 while the arrival of cooler air behind this boundary allows values to fall into the mid/upper 60s up along the IA state line.
A swath of temperatures, warmer than the surrounding areas, has developed from west central Oklahoma, up into north central Oklahoma. With this process removed, temperatures will be warmer than when evapotranspiration was at play.
High pressure and a scattered CU field will continue this afternoon as winds turn more SERLY. inverted troughing will occur in the Bay of Campeche that will tighten the pressure gradient and bring gusty SE winds for Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail today into tonight as the 500mb ridge across Texas continues to provide subsidence across deep south TX. Isolated showers may develop across the coastal sections of the CWA this afternoon as the seabreeze front develops along the lower TX coast and moves inland. /issued 357 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb subtropical ridge across the south central United States today will move little tonight into Thursday as an inverted 500mb trough moving across the southwest Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche today and tonight moves westward into eastern Mexico Thursday.
A broad upper ridge will remain in place across the southern CONUS through Thursday and will result in large-scale subsidence across our area. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs topping out in the mid and upper 90s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s.
Excessive heat warning remains in place for the lower deserts where temperatures will likely soar to 110-115 degrees.
A broad upper level ridge in place over the southeastern CONUS will continue to influence the region. As a result, high pressure and an unseasonably dry airmass will remain over the area tonight. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
243 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 For Tonight: A cold front over northwestern Kansas this afternoon, will continue to slide slowly southward tonight in response to a strong upper trough sweeping east across the Northern Plains.
However, there is a chance this may still occur over the remaining afternoon hours with steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the low 70's progged to move over the region which would quickly destabilize. Further, the warm front is still expected to push further north/northeast through the evening which would aid in a more northerly track.
220 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 A fairly typical summertime pattern is ongoing across the HUN CWFA this afternoon, with broad mid-level ridging extending across most of the southern CONUS. Area temperatures are a little warmer than average, with most spots already in the low-mid 90s. The ridge will continue to be the primary influence on area weather for the next 24 hours or so, with little to no precipitation coverage and persistence temperatures. That will begin to change late Thursday as a deeper trough begins to carve out over the eastern CONUS, driving a cold front farther south.
High pressure ridge axis remains north of Central Florida.
342 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Southerly winds have increased to around 15kt areawide this afternoon making it feel a little more tolerable than yesterday although temperatures are still in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The upper pattern changes little over the next couple of days with the center of the upper high right over the Southern Plains.
An upper level low centered near the Queen Charlotte Islands this afternoon will move in over the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days and bring much cooler, occasionally breezy, and in some places, showery weather. A cold front stretches from the low south roughly along 130W to around our latitude then off to the southwest.
This will help fuel showers and thunderstorms tonight across the lower Great Lakes /per SPC Day One Outlook/. High pressure will help keep the northern Great Lakes mainly dry tonight and Thursday. Gradually building 500mb heights across the center of the CONUS, with ridge axis shifting into the Great Lakes over the weekend. At the surface, expansive high pressure sliding slowly across the area.
Gusty north/northwest winds this afternoon will decrease this evening as the high pressure center moves into central North Dakota tonight.
157 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 North winds in the wake of earlier cold frontal passage will diminish in the late afternoon hours and remain light overnight. Generally ridging will persist aloft over the central plains on Thursday. Moderate instability will be in place by peak afternoon heating but deep layer shear will be limited to 20-30kts due to the ridge aloft.
1228 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Short version of the forecast, HOT and maybe then rain; long version, really HOT today and some potential for rain in the future! Satellite imagery this morning shows a broad ridge across much of the Nation with the prevailing westerlies located across the Northern Plains. with the Dakotas trough moving east this morning another weak frontal boundary is expected to settle into far northern Missouri late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Add in the fact that the thermal ridge axis will lay over across the forecast area ahead of the front, and temperatures could reasonably range around 100 degrees; and that's before we factor in the humidity.
Temperatures are in the low to middle 90s with dew points in the low to middle 70s resulting in heat indices up to 105 degrees. A weak cold front is expected to sink into central or southern Missouri.
554 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 High pressure settling in tonight will allow for decreasing winds and drier air, leading to cooler morning low temperatures. Aiming for low temperatures from the mid 50s in the mid James Valley to the lower 60s around Sioux City and Storm Lake. Thursday will prove to be a little cooler and a little drier with light winds, so a very pleasant summer day. While there does not appear to be much of a mechanism to initiate convection, with the low level jet mainly to the west, I would not be surprised to see a few elevated storms develop around daybreak or a bit after.
The first interesting feature to near the area is a trough expected to push westward from the Bahamas later tonight. Kept elevated rain chances over the Atlantic waters overnight to account for the nearing trough.
Mid and upper level moisture are accumulating under the upper ridge parked over the southwest U. Tomorrow is going to be the second day after this morning's cold frontal passage, setting up eastern Colorado for a Day 2 scenario. Temperatures are forecast to be some 10 degrees warmer than today.
Lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 50s for most locations with dry conditions under the high.
Dominant feature is the ridge which basically stretches from coast to coast across the southern CONUS. The northeastern CONUS is under a trough with the s/w that will lead to severe weather in the great lakes moving digging southeast into MN at 20z. Easy to see the ridge in the water vapor which shows a lot of dry air over the southern plains and southeastern CONUS. Things are starting to heat up with multiple sites having topped out in the lower 90s this afternoon. High pressure along with a stout cap around h7 has kept the area rain free with scattered very ragged cu.
Subsidence from the upper ridge will maintain a cap near 750 mb along with keeping precipitable water values close to 1. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower 90s except for upper 80s at the coast.
A pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to limit moisture in the forecast area. Expecting dry conditions across the CSRA where the upper ridge off to the southwest should have a little more control.
Although convection, if it can get going, will push south of the area early Thursday evening, the cold front will lag behind. This could still be a focus for convective development, but it is most likely to be along the southern border of the region and through southeast Missouri, where the cold front may get hung up.
423 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A trough of low pressure will cross the region this evening. Another trough follows Thursday with more showers.
The ridge center will wobble slightly southeast today.
Surface analysis has a low pressure system in the northern pan handle of Nebraska with a warm front extending to the east and a cold front to the southwest. The cold front should move into the northwest part of the forecast area by day break. A low amplitude ridge axis will be in place across the interior conus on Thursday with a surface front across central Kansas and high pressure migrating eastward toward the Missouri River.
That said, the lower level of the atmosphere remains quite dry, especially across the valleys and midslopes. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected on Thu as moisture remains trapped under the flat ridge that dominates will continue to dominate the area. As usual, the higher terrain will be favored.
The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front just to our north. This front is forecast to lift north today as a warm front and should have little effect or relief from the heat for the heartland. After that the upper level ridge builds back into the region placing a strong cap or temperature inversion over the area between 6k and 10k feet with CINH negative 50 or more.
A mid-to-upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over Texas with water vapor imagery showing dry air at midlevels over the entire Southern Plains. Area soundings continue to display a fairly strong subsidence inversion between 500-700 mb, which continues to limit instability in the vicinity of the ridge and has limited rainfall to just very isolated shallow convection in the Coastal Plains. These clouds should dissipate and lift by mid morning with highs a degree or two cooler than today ranging from the lower 90s in the Hill Country to around 100 in the Rio Grande Plains. Shower coverage in the Coastal Plains should be even lower tomorrow as the ridge elongates and begins to push to the east with the midlevel stability still in place.
402 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Hot and humid weather will continue through the forecast period as an upper ridge remains over the area.
Warm front was arced across the SW half of the forecast area with a heavy rain, and occasionally severe, MCS on-going early this morning from N central IA across SE IA into north central IL. Somewhat concerned that the warm front may remain further south and SW than models depict and the critical triple point with the area of low pressure advancing SE out of SD will move through east central IA or possibly SE IA into west central IL this afternoon. Many of the small tributaries into these rivers have crested so as this water gets into the main channels and the flows are measured, confidence will increase in how high the river will get in the lower part of the Iowa River.
109 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Hydro Showers and thunderstorms will move across southern Lower Michigan late this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks to the south. Severe weather threat appears limited to the far southern zones as models are converging on a low track that would keep the warm front from making much progress into Lower Michigan.
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Low pressure trough had moved east past the James River Valley. Have further reduced expected high temperatures to the lower 60s - mainly over the north central and Turtle Mountain area. Low pressure was over central North Dakota. The northwest winds on the back side of the low were higher than forecast. Also low clouds moving south behind the low and have increased sky cover - and in turn adjusted temperatures a bit lower than forecast for today. The high res models seem to have a good handle on the current convection and support a chance of showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms through the day, particularly north and east. 500MB heights build during the day as upper ridge moves in from the west with dry conditions expected tonight.
An upper level low and associated surface front will approach the area tonight, and move across Western Oregon on Thursday.
High clouds and light afternoon winds will continue through Thursday as high pressure remains in place over the Northern Rockies.
sunny and hot weather expected today, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016 A trough of low pressure over the area today, will continue to provide the North Country with some isolated showers on Thursday, mainly across northeast Vermont and in the higher terrain. Thereafter, high pressure will build over the area heading in to the weekend.
Another heatwave appears possible this weekend into early next Weakening high pressure aloft and increasing onshore flow will allow the marine layer to build slightly through the remainder of the workweek.
A cold front that extends from IA into central KS will move sse into northern cwfa on Thu.
Moisture channel imagery shows the center of the upper level ridge is located along the Red River at this time. Amplitude of the ridge is less versus this time yesterday as a short wave trough is moving through the upper Midwest has knocked it down somewhat. Another hot and muggy day is expected today as the upper ridge will remain nearly stationary. South to southwest surface winds courtesy of high pressure sitting over the southeast United States will continue to pull gulf moisture into the region for high humidity levels.
A convective system working its way along a warm frontal boundary tonight into Thursday is expected to remain largely south of the forecast area, leaving the bulk of Western and North- Central New York dry and increasingly warm through the weekend. With the convective activity scooting by to our south tonight into Thursday, fair weather will prevail throughout the day Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate the Great Lakes. 850mb temps will nudge up slightly, into the +10C to +12C range, so expect highs Thursday to run just a hair warmer than today's readings, in the mid to upper 70s. as a low amplitude ridge over the Northern Plains will gradually drift east across the Great Lakes region.
314 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Cold front at 20z had nearly pushed through the entire forecast area, but still needed to clear Falls City, which had reached 100. The cold front will continue to push southward tonight with high pressure and slightly cooler and drier air moving across the area for Thursday, along with dry weather continuing. Highs Thursday in the mid 80s north to around 90 south, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Eastern Kentucky will remain under the influence of a broad ridge at upper levels through the forecast period. This will spawn more showers and thunderstorms across the area, with the best chances across far Northern Kentucky, closer to the approaching cold frontal boundary.
With the warm front lifting northeast of our area leading to southwest surface and low level winds and the potential for plenty of solar insolation, unseasonably warm high temperatures are expected today, especially from COU to STL.
The primary concern in the short range forecast will be on Thursday as the frontal boundary will move east into the high plains.
A pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to limit moisture in the forecast area. Expecting dry conditions across the central Midlands and CSRA where the upper ridge off to the southwest should have a little more control.
Upper ridge settles to our south leaving us at the edge of some westerlies in mid-levels.
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Ongoing storm activity expected to be winding down toward the start of the forecast period shortly after sunrise, as mid level wave riding east along warm front slides east of the forecast area.
317 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 This afternoon there is an upper low currently over the northeast North Dakota/Manitoba border area that is generating showers and a few thunderstorms over northeast North Dakota/southern Manitoba/northwest Minnesota. This upper low and associated inverted trough axis at the surface will slowly side southeast tonight, spreading the showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area overnight tonight. Clouds should keep temperatures much warmer than this morning, and have kept mins in the upper 40s/low 50s tonight. The surface inverted trough axis will still extend up into northwest Wisconsin so we may have some lingering pops there, but features are very weak by that point and confidence is not very high and have decided to leave it out for now.
351 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Water vapor loop indicated upper low was over MN/MAN border and was moving east about 15 knots. Upper low will move to the New England coast by Thu afternoon. Convective temps were in the low to mid 70s in the southeast.
310 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 High pressure settling in tonight will allow for decreasing winds and drier air, leading to cooler morning low temperatures. Aiming for low temperatures from the mid 50s in the mid James Valley to the lower 60s around Sioux City and Storm Lake. Thursday will prove to be a little cooler and a little drier with light winds, so a very pleasant summer day. While there does not appear to be much of a mechanism to initiate convection, with the low level jet mainly to the west, I would not be surprised to see a few elevated storms develop around daybreak or a bit after.
259 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Northwest flow will continue into the end of the week with slightly cooler than average conditions. Dry conditions with gusty winds this afternoon behind the cold front that passed earlier today. Highs struggling to get into the lower 70s. Weather conditions will be very quiet Thursday night into the weekend with high pressure at the surface and a deep layer of dry air dominating much of the Northeast.
VFR forecast for the next 24 hours, but with a little more wind in spots than yesterday with still weak surface ridging in place across the gulf coast. 08 High pressure will dominate the area through the remainder of the work week.
Expect highs a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. /issued 634 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ A hot and humid day is expected across the Mid-South as an upper ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The ridge will suppress diurnal convection from developing. The ridge will begin to break down on Thursday allowing a back door cold front to approach from the northeast.
328 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Low pressure centered over Iowa this afternoon will race eastward and it is forecast to pass over our region late on Thursday before moving quickly out to sea.
High pressure ridge stretching across the region, will slowly sink South through Thursday.
118 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Aviation Showers and thunderstorms will move across southern Lower Michigan late this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks to the south. Severe weather threat appears limited to the far southern zones as models are converging on a low track that would keep the warm front from making much progress into Lower Michigan.
An upper low will continue to gradually work south-southeast along the British Columbia coast through tonight. High temps today will be similar to or slightly warmer than yesterday. May have a stray shower develop over the higher ridges of the Washington Cascade east slopes this afternoon. A relatively benign weather pattern is expected through the forecast period with the region mostly under the influence of the the large upper level ridge centered over the SWRN U.
A convective system working its way along a warm frontal boundary tonight into Thursday is expected to remain largely south of the forecast area, leaving the bulk of Western and North-Central New York dry and increasingly warm through the weekend. With the convective activity scooting by to our south tonight into Thursday, fair weather will prevail throughout the day Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate the Great Lakes. 850mb temps will nudge up slightly, into the +10C to +12C range, so expect highs Thursday to run just a hair warmer than today's readings, in the mid to upper 70s. as a low amplitude ridge over the Northern Plains will gradually drift east across the Great Lakes region.
However, radar trends showed the activity struggling to get going due to the presence of an UA ridge. This setup of diurnally driven convection will persist through early weekend while concurrently, the UA ridge migrates toward the Southeastern CONUS. This UA ridge translation could lead to increasing chances for precipitation particularly across East TX.
Dry high pressure will build in behind this feature, sliding from E MT and S Saskatchewan this afternoon to much of W and Central ND by 06Z. The high will continue to slide E through the day Thursday, resulting in not only dry conditions, but much less wind.
The combination of the upper level ridge over the region, ample sunshine, strong southerly winds and increasing dewpoint will make heat indexes climb into the 102 to 107 range. The cold front will move into the Ozarks on Thursday, but by then is will have weakened significantly and will have little impact on the areas temperatures. High will still climb into the lower 90s.
High pressure and a relatively dry airmass for summer standards will continue across the area today. High temperatures will be a little warmer across the area today, reaching the low to mid 90s across most of the area, except slightly cooler along the coast.
A bit cooler with a better chance of storms. Surface analysis indicates a cold front dropping south into Colorado nd will push across the area later this morning. upper ridging will continue to remain entrenched across the region with embedded energy working its way across the state by this afternoon. Expect the cold front to drop south across the plains this morning with a northerly wind shift, with flow transitioning easterly across the plains by this afternoon. The cold front will bring some relief to the extreme heat we have seen across southern Colorado for this afternoon. Another mild night is in store for southern Colorado with lows generally in the 60s for the lower elevations.