Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
344 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 (Tonight and Saturday) Computer models are more progressive in bringing the cold front through the Big Country tonight after midnight, and south along the I-10 corridor late Saturday afternoon and evening (where it washes out). The best chance of rain for the Big Country, however, will occur after midnight and towards morning, as the cold front moves through, For Saturday, the more progressive nature of the front shifts the best chance of showers and thunderstorms southward into the Concho Valley and Heartland.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST.
156 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY. STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL FALL-LIKE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED AS THE COOLER AIR REMAINS WITH US. AND THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN AND MON WITH DRY WX EXPECTED AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS. ON TUE AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR SRN CA AND THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY THE SW CO MTNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER MOVING TROF OVR THE AREA WED AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THU. AN UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVR THE AREA ON FRI.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 19/10Z AND THE SFC WIND WILL VEER FROM SLY TO SWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO REINFORCE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
411 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
LATE IN THE DAY, AND DURING THE EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
DUE TO GOOD MIXING IT WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER ON SAT. WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RECORDING BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA.
239 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 Overall the 12Z guidance has trended drier with the cold frontal passage late tonight and Saturday morning. Will not be buying into its more robust development in west Kentucky Saturday evening behind the surface cold front. Gut feeling is that the cold front will move uneventfully through the region, but will keep a swath of 20-30% PoPs near the front, mainly to fit in better with surrounding forecast areas.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR ST AUGUSTINE SOUTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IS SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD.
WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASED STABILITY AND SINKING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L RIDGING WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY. WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF STARTS OUT THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND NOW WE ARE UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GET US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
High pressure along the Appalachians will give us another pleasant day today with partly cloudy skies and temperatures rising well into the 80s this afternoon on light southerly breezes. Tonight low pressure will deepen as it moves from Missouri to Michigan. Its trailing cold front will advance to roughly a South Bend-Poplar Bluff-Texarkana line by sunrise Saturday. It will be a warm night in our position just ahead of the cold front with thickening clouds overhead and a light southerly breeze. On Saturday that cold front will cross the entire region, with high pressure already nosing into the west by evening. High temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover and timing of the frontal passage, but should generally be in the lower and middle 80s.
206 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AREAWIDE RESULTING FROM A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE. SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 80S.
247 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
1123 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT IS POSSIBLE 2+ INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN AN ISOLATED AREA IF A STRONGER STORM CELL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE A QUICK TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAISE HEIGHTS ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. BUT MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AT CRAIG AND SURROUNDING COLD SPOTS DO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY FOR MORE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER BUT CONTINUED SMALL CHANCES OF SPRINKLES NEAR THE NORTH COAST.
Showers and thunderstorms are set to affect all area TAF sites this evening as a cold front moves through the region. More surface-based showers and thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and evening across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as thunderstorms develop along a cold front across southeast Kansas and western Oklahoma and move into the region. The cold front is expected to be near the I-44 corridor in northeast Oklahoma by 00z Saturday.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO WRN/CNTRL SD THIS AFTN CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WARMEST WEST AND ALSO IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LAST NITES COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW. BUT THE QUICK MOTION OF THE LOW SUGGESTS THE CHANCE OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FCST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AS CURRENT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE SD EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY DROP SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. BUT OVERNIGHT WILL SEE ENOUGH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW-MID 40S. BUT ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS.
NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AND BUMPED THEM DOWN A LITTLE MORE INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE STRATUS SHOULD HOLD ON. A DEEP TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NE PAC AND GULF OF AK. THIS LOW IS FCST TO OPEN UP TUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE SW USA. HIGH TEMPS 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL.
42 HAVE UPDATED GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND RESULTANT COOLER START TO THE DAY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHICH WILL BE ENDING SOON ACROSS THE AREA.
Overall the 12Z guidance has trended drier with the cold frontal passage late tonight and Saturday morning. Will not be buying into its more robust development in west Kentucky Saturday evening behind the surface cold front. Gut feeling is that the cold front will move uneventfully through the region, but will keep a swath of 20-30% PoPs near the front, mainly to fit in better with surrounding forecast areas.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
1128 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN RAPID CITY AND PHILIP MOVING EASTWARD. RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY TEMPS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE HILLS.
BUT THE HIGHEST SHEAR IS ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
REGION REMAINS VERY MUCH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM NORTH MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS HIGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO CAPE BLANCO.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED IN THE LOWER 60S.
600 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY EVENING.
This low, and the associated sfc fnts, will be the primary focus for TSRA thru tonight.
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE LOW.
652 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S. A RIDGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND A TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE WARMER READINGS WERE DUE TO CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT PERSISTED BEYOND DAYBREAK TODAY. TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
355 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
306 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO WITH HIGHS TOPPING IN NEAR 90F ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN CHANCES.
Ridge of high pressure east of the Ohio Valley will continue to move off to the east through the period. At the same time, a cold front will approach the region late tonight and then pass through the region on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies will be seen overnight with readings cooling into the lower 60s in the east to the mid-upper 60s in the northwest. For Saturday, the well advertised cold front will cross through the region. Mid-level lapse rates still look meager and the higher effective wind shear will be located to the north of the region. The front should clear the region Saturday night as high pressure noses in from the northwest. Lows look to cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s in southern Indiana with lower to middle 50s across Kentucky.
THE MID-SOUTH IS LOCATED BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BUILDING NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
8 INCHES RANGE IN THE SOUTH AS THE LOW NOSES INTO THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT BOTH THE SURFACEAND ALOFT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 4K FEET. NOTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT NEAR 3500 FT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SFC AND ALOFT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND LA THIS MORNING WHILE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND LOW 40S OVER MINNESOTA AND WARMER WHERE CLOUDS LINGER OVER WISCONSIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF SEEMS TO ARGUE AGAINST DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S NORTHWEST AND THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS TEXAS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 10 AND 30K FEET TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMING OF THE MID LAYER THANKS TO THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN CAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IN RETURN KEEPS THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER VERY LOW.
255 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015 UPPER TROF AND LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE CWA. MINS APPEAR THEY WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FROST FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN TYPICAL LOW-LYING AREAS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WITH FIRE WEATHER AS LEE TROFFING CAUSES AFTERNOON BREEZES TO INCREASE AROUND THE SE WY MTNS.
255 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 727 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST FROM TEXAS DOMINATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
354 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY EVENING.
BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB HAD FLATTENED A BIT.
308 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS HERE TODAY. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AND SHARP COLD FRONT DRAPED BETWEEN THE TWO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
342 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGE AXIS FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES TO EAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY.
252 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 SKIES ARE MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
Winds this afternoon and evening will be generally light ahead of a cold front that will move into the area beginning around 09z. Satl imagery continues to show the subtropical ridge anchored over Texas. A trof continues to move across the Intermountain West. and a thetae ridge there could be isolated/scattered thunderstorms over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns east into the Central Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains. As the trof translates east across the northern tier of states the ridge will flatten and a cold front will sag south into the CWA on Saturday. It looks like the cold front will stall north of the Rio Grande.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. ESPECIALLY THE HIGH RES MODELS. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A SHRTWV MOVES EAST OVER TOP OF WRN RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA, ACCUMULATING MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY COLD, AS -5C 925 MB TEMPS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WILL YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
413 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING UPPER FLOW TO BACK. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TODAY UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING OVERHEAD AND WILL ADD SOME MID LEVEL MOISTENING TO THIS TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING HAS ALLOWED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO PUSH INTO A LARGE AREA OF TEXAS CUTTING OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS READY TO ENTER THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.
As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday.
Quiet and dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through Friday night as short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward out of the Central and Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains during the period. A weak flow aloft and much drier air in the lower/mid levels will void any precip chances across western Kansas entering the early part of the weekend. This will begin to draw warmer air into the state raising H85 temperatures up around 10C across central Kansas to a little above 15C closer to the Colorado border.
A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING INCLUDING KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPANSIVE AND PV RICH UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THIS DURING THE SHORT TERM IS THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING PRECIP AND THAT IS THE ENHANCED AREA OF PV DIVING SSE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. WHERE SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE NOTED. IT WILL BE COLD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES. H85 TEMPS BY THE AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN -12C.
347 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN UNUSUALLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT. LONGWAVE TROF WILL LIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALLOWING SOUTHERN BRANCH ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA.
EXPECT COOLER AND WET WEATHER TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
High pressure and well above normal temperatures, some 20-25 degrees, will occur today across the entire region.
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to edge eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is drifting slowly southeast across western Kansas. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected for Friday as the cool airmass moderates, with highs in the lower 70s.
344 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION IN THE COLD NW FLOW UNDER/BEHIND THE PROGRESSING TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION. ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. FOR THE RIDGES. CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE INCRSG UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LAYER UNDER THE CROSSING MID-LVL THERMAL TROUGH TO SUPPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE RIDGES. HENCE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS WELL AS THE RIDGES.
TO RIGHT AT 60 AT PEASON RIDGE AND KESF NEAR ALEXANDRIA. THESE TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE WIND. LOTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW U.
A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPAND IT TO SOME OF THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS LIKELY TOO LATE FOR ANY PROTECTIVE ACTION.
508 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.