Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1152 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Visibilities have improved and the low ceilings are quickly eroding. Tried to use a safe approach, milder east cooler west. The RAP/HRRR is very cool and keeps highs down closer to 60 or lower 60s where guidance is considerably warmer (low to mid 70s area wide). Low confidence call at this point as it could be cooler. All depends on the low clouds.
A 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL TRANSLATE NORTH INTO S WI. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE PROGGING DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S BY 06Z TONIGHT. AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY 12Z WED.
FREEZING LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 5000 FT MSL THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 3000 FT MSL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AND INCLUDED SOME FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
1232 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
218 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BREEZY. THIS WILL HELP LOWS TO BE A WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS THEY MIX TO THE GROUND. EVEN IF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT MIX TO THE GROUND. DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
Strong southerly flow has commenced as an upper trough digs to our west over CA and NV. Tomorrow doesn't look quite as warm as today given the increase in moisture and height falls occurring ahead of the trough. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night as the trough begins to lift into the Plains.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN WYOMING. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES VARY GREATLY THIS AFTN FROM THE MID 40S OVER NWRN SD TO THE UPPER 70S AT PINE RIDGE. THERE IS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER WASHINGTON/OREGON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NERN WY TO THE MID 60S IN SCNTRL SD.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH S-CENTRAL IDAHO. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IS FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND GUSTY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW AXIS IS SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S. RATHER DEEP TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUED ADVANCING EASTWARD. THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE IN NO HURRY EXITING THE REGION. WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON WED.
/issued 335 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ Quiet weather will continue today across southeast New Mexico and west Texas under modest, but increasing, southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper trough located over California/Utah early this morning per Water Vapor satellite imagery. Temperatures will warm above normal again today and Wednesday, but perhaps a degree or two lower each day due to height falls ahead of the ua trough.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
A WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A DEEPENING SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ERN CO SWD THRU ERN NM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN S TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FOUND. THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
LATEST SATELLITE DATA CONT TO INDC CLOUDS ERODING OVR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN AR AND ACRS THE DELTA OF ERN AR WHERE VFR CONDS WL RETURN EARLY THIS AFTN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT. THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRETTY MUCH BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR WEST ANY LOW CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. JORDAN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY GEARING UP IN THE GREAT BASIN IS SET TO MOBILIZE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THU AS IT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS THAT ONLY RECENTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS IA AND MOST OF IL TO RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AND THEN SURGE NORTHWARD AND EXPAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG A SURFACE TO 0.
Secondly, wet and slushy roads could refreeze tonight as temperatures drop to below freezing tonight for much of western Montana.
Upper pattern becoming more amplified overnight with western ConUS trough deepening and downstream ridging over the Mississippi Valley.
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1043 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S WERE NOT FAR OFF FROM OUR SEASONABLE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS IN THE UPPER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Models remain in good agreement and bring an upper trough over the four corners area by Wednesday afternoon.
339 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL AND N IL AT BAY THIS AFTN. CIGS WILL REDUCE TO IFR CONDITIONS AS THE LOW STRATUS FILLS IN. THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A WEAK RIDGE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE 925/850 MB WIND MAXIMUM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEAKENS AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF STRATUS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE LOW BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATING LATE TONIGHT.
WITH DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT AND THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION DO NOT THINK THE FOG WILL GET ANY BETTER UP THERE. CLOUDS REMAIN THICKEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND TEMPS THERE REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S. SUNNY DOWN SOUTH OF THIS AREA AND TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER. MODELS KEEP SOME PCPN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOW. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE FA ON THU AS THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH MOVES IN.
323 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 19z water vapor imagery shows a highly amplified trough ridge pattern over the western to Central CONUS. Depending on actual extent of cloud cover and duration, will likely impact the high temperatures.
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
341 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 (Tonight and Wednesday) Latest analysis and satellite data show an upper ridge across the southeastern US with a trough deepening over southern California/Arizona. Southwest flow aloft is increasing across west Texas as the ridge continues to move off to the east and the upper trough approaches. At the surface, a lee trough over far west Texas has resulted in increasing southeasterly low level flow this afternoon, with dewpoints on the increase. we may see a few showers and very light rain or drizzle develop along the interstate 10 corridor as warm air advection develops ahead of the upper trough. As clouds move in during the day tomorrow, we will see cooler temperatures, with highs in the 70s.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FREEZE FOR SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
Just think the low stratus moving in will keep it from tanking like other areas. Models aren't handling the low level moisture well but there is enough agreement amongst them that it looks likely that low stratus will form again late tonight.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DIG CLOSER TO THE REGION. THOUGH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP THE REGION CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TOMORROW OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE TROUGH GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. TOMORROW NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AND DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE INLAND COUNTIES. WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
EXPECT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT ALLOWING MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR TO BE LIFTED AND FILTER INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION WILL BE MOVING WEST THROUGH THE AREA.
327 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
201 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. DESPITE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD.
FORECAST - THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH CELL EMERGING OFF OF THE MID AND NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. AND PROXMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ITS ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTION. INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TAP DOWNWARDS RAIN CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
158 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR SKIES.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH I-35 FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT FURTHER EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
227 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A deep upper trough lies over the western CONUS. with broad ridging downstream over the remainder of the nation. lee troughing to our west and broad ridging to our east will maintain southerly flow across our region. Fog has developed the past couple of nights due to the higher dewpoint air in place. Expect a slightly warmer day on Wednesday. after the low clouds/fog burn off that is.
BUT OF COURSE IF CLOUDS MOVE IN WE WILL BE WARMER.
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-OHIO RIVER VALLEY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT SANDHILLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under the ridge, winds are generally light and variable. Some disagreement in the models depiction of the higher dewpoints.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 333 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.
TRUE WINTER WEATHER IS HEADED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AS A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL PERSIST AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS ALSO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE A TAD COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES OFF TO A MUCH WARMER START THAT THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH READINGS STILL WELL INTO THE 30S.
As a result winds are a little stronger this morning than they have been the last few mornings due to the pressure gradient tightening between the high and low. The upper level trough will continue to spread east and across the Plains today and tonight. Ahead of the trough southerly winds will continue and highs will top out in the 50s. Clouds will also gradually start to increase from west to east later today into tonight as the trough spreads east. Late tonight and Sunday the trough will push into and through the area. The trough will strengthen as it spreads across the area and will produce good lift. With more cloud cover and the upper level trough being over the region, highs will be a little cooler on Sunday with readings in the middle 40s to lower 50s expected.
850 MB TEMP ON THE SOUNDING DROPPED 5C AS THE INVERSION WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH YESTERDAY/S TROUGH PASSAGE. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING /COR/ WITH BOISE IN THE MID 30S AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND FREEZING. /COR/ LOWER TREASURE DENSE FREEZING FOG /25 DEGREES AND 0. 25 MILE VIS AT ONTARIO/ IS LIFTING PER WEB CAMS WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER BRIDGE AND AIRPORT WERE STILL SOCKED IN. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. MTN VALLEYS AND AREAS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND BAKER VALLEY WILL START OFF WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN LATER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST.
MAIN ISSUES FOR TONIGHT WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/DZ AHD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS PROG NEAR 1 INCH PWATS TO SURGE N INTO S TX TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED JET WILL BE FAR N OF THE CWA. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT BRING MUCH CAA BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL TEMPS ACROSS S TX. MN TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TONIGHT'S FCSTD VALUES.
303 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY. HOWEVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK FROM THE HIGH PEAKS WESTWARD HAS REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER LOW OVERCAST STRATUS DECK. SOME STELLAR UNDERCAST WAS OBSERVED TODAY FROM THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
1134 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MELTING. AS TROUGH MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
237 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THRU FCST PERIOD AS REGIME STAYS DOMINATED BY EAST CONUS RIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO NORMS TONIGHT THEN WARMER MORESO ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER.
306 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
108 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW-MID 50S OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF FOG. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
255 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHIFTED LITTLE. AND AFTN HIGHS A TAD WARMER. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG INTO PANHANDLES WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TOMORROW.
Low level moisture will increase ahead of approaching cold front after 06z tonight with MVFR ceilings spreading across NE OK and eventually NW AR for a few hours ahead of the front, which will move through E OK early Sunday morning. although MVFR cigs may develop late tonight across the northeast Oklahoma TAF sites ahead of a weak cold front.
The weak upper level trough which has been translating slowly eastward over the Southeast the past few days will move into the Atlantic tonight, as deep layer ridging begins to develop over our region. Like last night, we expect the surface winds to remain above 5 MPH for most of the night, preventing temperatures from reaching the lower 40s.
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH TO CROSS FA TODAY. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST. BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY THE LOW LEVELS AT KBJI THIS AFTERNOON.
257 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO E TEXAS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OUT IN THE PACIFIC MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BOTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MENTIONED BEFORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIRST WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW WITH MAINLY JUST A WIND SHIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday, though some of the cooler readings over central Illinois yesterday will likely expand further west-southwest today due to the greater areal coverage of the fog today.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AND ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
211 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
243 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Strong winds continue as the pressure gradients persist over the higher terrain causing winds 60mph+ this morning through the early afternoon.
Broad, low-amplitude troughing persists aloft over the northern and northeastern CONUS, leaving much of the southern half of the country under a weak deep-layer flow regime. Forecasting partly cloudy skies and high temps in the low to mid 80s both this afternoon and Tuesday.
The cold front that moved through this past weekend has since stalled out across central Arkansas, and will lift northward toward the region tomorrow afternoon, making it as far as roughly the northern boundary of the Ozarks by late tomorrow afternoon. This will also help warm temperatures a few degrees tomorrow, especially for this Butler to Boonville line closer to the warm front.
Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected today due to the cloud cover hindering solar insolation, and north-northeast winds continuing to bring cooler air into our region. Slightly warmer high temperatures are expected on Tuesday as the surface wind becomes southeasterly in the afternoon. GKS The chance of showers will increase across most of the area Tuesday night as a weak cold front drops southeastward into our area.
Additional waves of low pressure tracking along the boundary may spread a few showers as far north as the I-70 corridor this afternoon: however, any additional rainfall will remain quite light. Clouds and precip will keep temps cooler, with 40s in the north and 50s in the south during the day. After the front moves through, it quickly becomes a warm front and lifts back north, pushing any precip into the northern part of the CWA.
20 (Today and tonight) Cooler conditions will remain across the area for this afternoon. Expect highs to be in the lower 60s across the Big Country. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected across areas near Interstate 10.
High pressure will remain to the north northeast this period. These troughs will lead to the potential for a showers through Tonight, along with elevated winds at the coast.
Main forecast focus in the short term will be with drizzle and fog potential tonight and then showers/thunderstorms later Tuesday into Tuesday night as front begins to lift back to the north as a warm front.
Freezing rain and sleet have been reported in Billings. Still expect this messy wintry mix to move northward/northeastward this evening with the warmer nose of air aloft. Will be subtle differences between the chances for freezing rain and sleet.
Temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees above normal through at least the middle of the week with cooler weather arriving over the weekend. High pressure will ensure persistent dry conditions with only occasional high clouds or a thin veil of elevated smoke drifting through the region. Early morning WV imagery depicts a hemispheric longwave flow pattern nearly identical to the past several days with a stationary Hudson Bay vortex coupled with East Pacific Rex blocking.
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Current surface analysis places high stretching from southern Saskatchewan into the upper Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes, with trough over the eastern Rockies. Warmer air aloft works its way into the southwest, with a layer of above freezing temperatures pushing in after midnight. This may result in a little wintry mix with some light freezing rain or sleet. This will keep light precipitation continuing into the morning before tapering off from west to east towards mid-day into the afternoon as the wave pushes east and modest ridging starts to build in.
By this weekend, a change in the weather pattern will bring pronounced cooling to the region along with gusty winds and chances for light precipitation mainly across the higher terrain.
The low clouds and fog should again dissipate by late in the morning on Tuesday leaving mainly sunny skies in the afternoon.
146 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area. Forecast is on track this afternoon, with temperatures much warmer than the previous two days. Surface ridging from the northeast is still present, and helping to keep us high and dry. Subsidence associated with the 500 hPa ridge over the Atlantic is helping to keep an inversion in place, and clouds suppressed (in addition to dry low levels). High pressure aloft will be centered along the Southeast U.