Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
943 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 TODAY LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST.
NORCAL REMAINS UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND AN UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO VERY GRADUALLY COOL DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST.
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
1008 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 68 81 69 / 80 60 70 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 67 80 66 / 80 60 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 67 80 66 / 80 60 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 65 77 64 / 80 60 60 50 NC.
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E-W ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS.
1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER BERMUDA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW MEXICO. WITH UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
MIDLVL RIDGING WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY. /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR. 50H RIDGE. PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET SIDE. SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. WITH 70H RIDGE RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION. THIS TROUGH DID BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S AS FAR NORTH AS AUSTIN.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH COMBINATION WAS ALSO PULLING EAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THIS CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SOME MODEL SUGGEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS CWA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THIS CWA SHOULD KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF I-90.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER ANDROS ISLAND TODAY.
/ISSUED 224 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/ Low level moisture surging north this morning into Southeast Oklahoma with dew-points increasing into the lower 60s with surface based cape approaching 1000 j/kg near the Red River.
533 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 AT H5 BROAD TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER HIGHS ARE OFF EITHER COAST.
WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AS IT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA THIS MORNING. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CORE IS CURLING UP OVER N OK INTO S KN AND ON THE SURFACE.
THE BROAD H5 TROF PATTERN COVERED MUCH OF THE U. CLOSED H7 LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE -10DEG C LINE. H85 HEIGHTS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE ROCKIES. THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE HAD BEEN SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND STRETCHED FROM IOWA TOWARD MISSOURI AND THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE 40 TO 45KT LOW LEVEL JET. LIGHTNING WAS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO ARKANSAS IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
A STRONG JET IS PROJECTED TO DIVE DOWN THE WEST COAST AS A TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND COMES ON SHORE OVER OREGON. THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ROTATES TO SOUTHWEST UTAH BY 12Z CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT XMAS DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS.
Although cooler temperatures aloft begin to edge into far northeast KS and northwest MO this afternoon, warm near-surface temperatures will keep the potential for rain/snow to reach the surface very slim, and have elected not to mention in the forecast for this afternoon and evening. Mainly quieter conditions are expected tonight through Christmas Day, and although models are consistent in their indication of a very brief window of light snow showers across northern MO Thursday morning as the base of the trough passes over the IA/MO border, do not expect any accumulation with this fast moving, low-moisture- content system. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in 40s to perhaps lower 50s as cold air advection gradually wanes, and the lower to mid 50s for Christmas Day as southeasterly surface flow returns and warmer, more moist air begins to filter back into the region.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 10 AM AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S AS FAR NORTH AS AUSTIN.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE PGF HAS STRENGTHENED ENOUGH TO BOOST UP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. THE PGF IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS EAST. VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CAUSES WINDS TO VEER. DESPITE THE FACT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP DOWN THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK.
553 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MIDWEST LOW. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE SWRLY.
WE ARE NEAR THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR BUT STILL SHOULD SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL MAINTAIN BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AS WELL. THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE. WHILE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE HIGH PLATEAUS OF SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. A WEAK INVERSION AT MOUNTAIN TOP WILL AIDE IN TRAPPING STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE SFC WHILE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL HELP FORCE SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC AS WELL. THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVERALL BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH A PERSISTENT GRADIENT IN PLACE.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. BUT EVEN THE MAX WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SO WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE DRY WITH REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WHICH WILL SET NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUMS.
VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CAUSES WINDS TO VEER. DESPITE THE FACT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP DOWN THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOW DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
614 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND LIMITED MIXING. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTH FLOW WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RECORDS FOR THE DATE MAY OCCUR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDINESS LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS UPPER TROUGH AND LOW SWING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS THURSDAY. WITH MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER (LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS). THEN A BIT COOLER TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES TODAY CAUSING BRIEF NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
1004 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND LIMITED MIXING. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTH FLOW WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RECORDS FOR THE DATE MAY OCCUR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDINESS LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AS THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WEAKENS BY MIDNIGHT AND LEAVES A ZONE OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF I-59. AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL BEEF UP WINDS AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF E TN AND SW NC. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 61 74 62 / 90 90 70 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 63 73 61 / 80 80 70 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 61 71 61 / 70 90 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 60 71 57 / 80 70 70 70 NC.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADED TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FALLING TEMPERATURES/GUSTY WINDS/FREEZING ON ROADWAYS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE SNOW WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKING DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY.
429 AM MST WED DEC 23 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.
MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE DECENT SHOT OF RAIN WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE LATE EVENING (EARLY OVERNIGHT) WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
619 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND LIMITED MIXING. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTH FLOW WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RECORDS FOR THE DATE MAY OCCUR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDINESS LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES EAST.
OUR SOUNDING HAD A LOT OF MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND FWD WAS LIKEWISE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AS IT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA THIS MORNING. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CORE IS CURLING UP OVER N OK INTO S KN AND ON THE SURFACE.
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK 700MB/500MB TROF. THERE IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW (OR RAIN IN SOME OF THE LOWEST VALLEYS) FOR MOST OF NORTHERN NV THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE 700MB/500MB TROF THAT FOLLOWS THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CORE IS CURLING UP OVER N OK INTO S KN AND ON THE SURFACE.
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL U. UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT WORKS INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SWINGS THIS WAY. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE LOW 60'S. WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM LOW CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure is lifting northeast across eastern Kansas with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into northern Oklahoma. Highs today will be slightly cooler, with some cold air advection behind the wave, and from the upper 40s to around 50.
734 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MIX THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND LIMITED MIXING. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTH FLOW WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RECORDS FOR THE DATE MAY OCCUR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDINESS LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NOSE OF EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
515 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
308 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
258 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO AN ISOLATED STORM IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT A BIT. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS RATHER ZONAL WITH ONLY MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE ACTUALLY STAYS TO OUR EAST. ALLOWING A PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO NORTH TEXAS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
647 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
318 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER 90S. WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S FAR SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT. TODAY WILL FEEL COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTING NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN COOL. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY DEPARTS AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL START THE WEEK BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
201 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 THE PRESENCE OF THE UA RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE SYNOPTIC RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE INVERTED UA TROUGH DRAPED FROM ERN TX AND SW TO ACROSS SERN OLD MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SAID UA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE THROUGHOUT TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA /ACROSS SOUTHERN TX AND SERN OLD MEXICO/ COURTESY OF THE UA RIDGE EXPANDING A BIT MORE EWRD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UA RIDGE NOT CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING.
319 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOWS A 596 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE POSITION OF UPPER HIGH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THROUGH MID WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS AS A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES WITH TIME. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. MODEL DATA INDICATE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop again during peak heating Monday, mainly over the higher terrain.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CAUSING A DECENT SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW TO PUSH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. WARMING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST MIDWEEK AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO OREGON.
STRONG UPDRAFT ROTATION/0-1KM HELICITY COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED SHOULD COOLER LAKE ENVIRONMENT SLOW NWD PUSH OF SFC WARM FNTL BNDRY/LAKE ENHANCED TRIPLE POINT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS CDFNT PROVIDING FAIR WX TUE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST WED. A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
333 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2015 COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 70 IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS IN EARNEST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE WESTERLIES RETREAT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING BEGINING TO BUILD OVER THE WEST.
351 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE LOW-COUNTRY NEAR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
THOUGH DELAYED HEATING DUE TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS PLUS HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT USUALLY HOT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ARK VALLEY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FIRE ACROSS AND ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE BEACHES TO AROUND 100 WELL INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
THESE INCREASED WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE LATER IN ADVANCE OF OUR FRONT COMING BACK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SOME VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTREMES TO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE THEN WEAKENS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH ALSO DEVELOPING.
453 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
407 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 THRU MIDWEEK WX PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF INVERTED TROF OVER SCNTL TX RETROGRADING INTO MEXICO AS FLAT RIDGE MOVES ESEWD OVER THE TOP OF IT AND INTO THE SE STATES.