Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front has nearly pushed through the Permian Basin towards south Texas and should be to the coast within the next few hours. A strong ~70 knot 500mb jet is still being progged to develop and lift into the southern Panhandle region Thursday ahead of a developing upper low over the Great Basin.
649 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front will move across our area today resulting in much cooler conditions than yesterday with a chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms east of I69. High pressure will follow this system across the area tonight providing fair weather with seasonably cool temperatures. A strong low pressure system will move slowly northeast from the southern plains to the Great Lakes over the weekend.
624 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Weakening low pressure off the New Jersey coast will slowly drift east. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon.
High pressure returns for the weekend with warm and dry weather. Trough developing over the four corners area will slow the progression of the building ridge moving into the region. Cold mid-level air and northerly flow on the backside of the low will keep temperatures cool Thursday and Friday before a strong warming trend takes hold for the weekend. Northwest surface flow today will become northeast on Friday allowing cooler air to continue to push into the region and keep below average temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Stronger winds will be possible Friday afternoon into Friday night in the high Sierra as a strong temperature gradient forms.
Of minor note, high temperatures have the potential to be cooler than what I have due to the rather thick cloud cover beginning earlier in the day and the developing precipitation.
1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Strongest convection continues to push across far southern Illinois this evening closer to the better instability and shear with showers and scattered thunderstorms continuing in our area just ahead of the slow moving cold front. A wet night is on tap across central and southeast Illinois as periods of showers and thunderstorms accompany a slow moving cold front and upper-level energy tracking along the boundary. Aside from a low risk of showers in the morning, Thursday should end up a mostly dry day as weak high pressure builds across the area. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler in many areas than today, with peak readings mainly around 60 degrees. The next stronger piece of upper-level energy will amplify the broad/shallow troffing across the lower 48 states to start the period.
155 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A weak disturbance is expected to affect the area Thursday night, followed by high pressure Friday into the weekend.
533 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Cold front continues to push slowly eastward, and was roughly along a Lacon-Lincoln-Taylorville line at 2 am, with a low pressure area centered just south of Bloomington. The short-range models are in good agreement that much of this will lift of the forecast area by 7 am as the low tracks to Lake Michigan, with some lingering showers northwest of the Illinois River for a couple hours beyond that. Forecast soundings show skies remaining rather cloudy through the day, although some clearing should start moving in from the southwest during the afternoon as the low pulls away. Southern branch of the jet stream was focused along the southern tier of states this morning, but a developing upper low over Utah/Colorado on Friday will force this northward.
as upper ridging over the eastern seaboard prevents this system from every threatening our region. The associated cold front will simply run out of gas as it reaches the FL panhandle.
The approaching short wave is slowly inducing sfc troffing along the Front Range. With the lowest 5,000ft across the Wrn half of Central KS not moistening until mid-late afternoon have delayed arrival of the rain to the about NW quarter of KICT Country til 3-4 PM. Fri-Sat Night: Rain & embedded thunderstorms really ramp up as the main upper deck trof undergoes cyclogenesis as it digs further over the 4-Corners Region Fri Night. An increasing southeast wind is expected by Thursday afternoon as a lee side cyclone deepens across the central High Plains. Rather impressive lift associated with an upper trof moving into the area will result in a quick increase in mid/high clouds by midday with the bases/ceilings lowering by evening to MVFR stratocu or stratus over central Kansas.
The passage of a cold front overnight will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms with coverage most widespread from the Finger Lakes region to the western Mohawk Valley. Mostly sunny skies and T925 around 20C will bring high temperatures in the lake plain into the lower 80s with readings across much of central New York into the middle to upper 70s. A weakening cold front will move through the region overnight. High pressure will briefly reside over the area on Friday with dry conditions returning and high temperatures in the 70s.
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Weakening low pressure off the New Jersey coast will slowly drift east. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon.
A brief period of upper level short wave ridging will keep most of today dry across the region. However, another short wave trough will move east into the central Plains from later this afternoon into tonight. We went on the lower side of temperature guidance today with a quicker increase in clouds expected. Most areas should warm into the lower to middle 60s. Lows should be in the lower to middle 50s.
Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure nosing south out of central Canada and into the Dakotas. Low pressure is located across southern BC, with cold front stretching across the Pacific NW. However, across southern Campbell County where the heaviest pcpn is forecast, amounts approaching 6 inches are possible, especially the higher elevations of southwest Campbell County Thursday night into Friday. The weekend looks mainly dry, but remaining cool, as large trough lingers over the region. Active northwest flow on the back side of the trough will bring several disturbances across the area, with daily chances for showers in most areas.
The upper trough is in the process of lifting northward and additional upward motion from this feature will gradually decrease. Some of the mesoscale models are handling this pretty well as it only breaks when the pre-frontal trough arrives. It is likely that the dew points only reach the lower 60s or so. 16 An approaching cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday morning.
At the same time, height rises will be occurring as upper high centered off of the Carolina coast strengthens.
312 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2017 A warm moist southerly return flow will prevail through the weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens offshore the Southeast coast.
Highs will be from the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s today, a bit warmer on Friday with the 70s and some 80s over the south.
Warmer temperatures on the way starting today with southerly flow on back side of Atlantic ridge and ridge aloft starting to build into region. especially over the interior where maxes will reach the lower to mid 90s. late April average highs/lows in EC FL are in the lower-mid 80s and lower 60s, respectively.
High pressure aloft will return to the western states for late in the weekend.
424 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front will move across our area today resulting in much cooler conditions than yesterday with a chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms east of I69. High pressure will follow this system across the area tonight providing fair weather with seasonably cool temperatures. A strong low pressure system will move slowly northeast from the southern plains to the Great Lakes over the weekend.
305 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 An area of low pressure is lifting northeast into the great lakes this morning with a trailing cold front extending southward across Illinois into western Tennessee. A band of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is working into central Kentucky presently, left over from the convection in the lower Mississippi river valley yesterday. While ridge will slide eastward on Friday, we will remain dry as southerly flow begins to pick up. Low level wind shear will continue just ahead of an approaching cold front overnight.
238 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected early this morning as as a cold front moves through. High temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday, only reaching into the 60s. Chances for widespread/moderate rain are on the low side, outside of our far western CWA. Trailing cold front does not arrive until diurnal minimum of instability and will be intersecting increasingly hostile environment as it tracks east with residual dry air and loss of parent forcing for ascent. Still, most places will probably see some light showers with morning cold frontal passage and latest hi-res guidance does show convection presently entering southern Illinois will clip our western zones this evening. Non-diurnal temp trend expected given morning cold front passage.
356 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 The cold front that moved through the area late last night continues its march eastward this morning and is currently bisecting Alabama from north to south. Expect these clouds to continue to trail the cold front out of our area over the next few hours leaving sunny skies and a cool northwesterly breeze.
A strong cold front is currently moving through South Texas this morning. Rain chances will shift to the east this evening as trough swings through and moves into southeast Texas. Abundant cloud cover will hold temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
530 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 A ridge of high pressure is progged to settle south across the area today bringing light winds but keeping a cool airmass entrenched across the area. Locations across central KS that received some light snow may struggle to reach freezing while those near the OK state line in south central KS see highs approaching 40. As high pressure continues to translate eastward away from the region on Thursday, breezy southwesterly winds will advect warmer air into the area with highs expected to top out in the 50s.
A strong high pressure system anchored over the Eastern Pacific will result in continued dry weather and above normal daytime temperatures through the weekend. The strong ridge of high pressure located over the Eastern Pacific will continue to provide dry and mild weather through the forecast period.
High pressure surface and aloft will continue to hold over west central and southwest Florida today with high temperatures running about 10 degrees above climatic normals. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s north to the low/mid 80s south. A weakening cold front will approach north Florida tonight and will stall across the central Florida peninsula on Thursday as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. Main impact will be slightly drier air advecting across portions of the region with dew points on Thursday dropping into the mid 50s north to the lower 60s central.
415 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2018 An upper level trof of low pressure will generally reside over the region for the next few days. However, a surface warm front will try to move northward into Southwest and North Central MT today.
407 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 There has been a secondary surge of cool air move through the area this morning which will drop temps below freezing in the Permian Basin. Skies will scatter out more than yesterday so despite the cooler start to the morning, highs will be similar to yesterday. Lower dewpoints are accompanying the cooler air so the best chance for any fog or drizzle this morning will be west of the Pecos River where upslope favors formation. Temps in this area should mostly be above freezing so do not expect any ice accumulations.
Low pressure moving northeast from the Tennessee Valley will bring some precipitation to central Indiana this morning. High pressure will then build in and bring dry weather into Thursday.
835 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 A cold front will approach from the west today bringing increasing chances of rain to the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north briefly Thursday.
Light snow continued to fall over much of the Northland this morning as a trough passes through the region. High pressure will cause dry conditions to continue into Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Do note that the SREF probability of precipitation type products do suggest some freezing rain potentially mixing in overnight in the far southwest portions of the CWA.
High pressure centered over the eastern Pacific will continue to provide unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. The passing trough has helped to disrupt the fog development in the San Joaquin Valley, and satellite imagery along with surface observations indicate no areas of dense fog this morning. Temperatures today will climb again to 6-12 degrees above climo under the influence of the strong Pacific ridge. Model consistency is good for the next few days as the ridge remains along the coast, keeping us in the dry and warmer than normal pattern, with hazy days and some SJ Valley fog overnight and in the mornings.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across North Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across South Florida today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the Bahamas this afternoon.
/Issued 338 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ An upper trough will move across the Panhandles today and should exit the forecast area by later today.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with a reinforcing north wind and clouds keeping high temperatures in the single digits above zero.
521 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2018 Updated forecast for today An upper level trof of low pressure will generally reside over the region for the next few days. However, a surface warm front will try to move northward into Southwest and North Central MT today.
638 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 A cold front will approach from the west today bringing increasing chances of rain to the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north briefly Thursday.
The offshore flow and building high pressure aloft will bring fair and warmer weather today and Thursday.
556 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Low pressure producing wintry precipitation will move east today. High pressure and dry air will follow for Thursday.
South of Cape Blanco the thermal trough continues to strengthen with dry offshore for the Brookings area and the Kalmiopsis Wilderness. The lower Klamath River Valleys will also see highs in the mid to upper 70s today. On Thursday, the upper ridge weakens and the thermal trough moves inland just enough to turn the flow onshore and bring cooler conditions to the coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 28 52 33 / 100 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 26 47 31 / 100 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 26 48 31 / 100 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 24 44 28 / 100 20 0 0.
Showers and thunderstorms will become better developed today as a cold front over central parts of MS and AL moves south to the immediate coast by late afternoon. As a result a few strong thunderstorms can't be ruled out as the sfc cold front approaches from the north by late morning and afternoon with some minor flooding issues also be possible, especially in areas with low terrain and urban areas where poor drainage is common. Highs today will range from the lower to middle 60s for most of the northern half of the forecast area and the middle 60s to lower 70s to the south.
/issued 407 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ There has been a secondary surge of cool air move through the area this morning which will drop temps below freezing in the Permian Basin. Skies will scatter out more than yesterday so despite the cooler start to the morning, highs will be similar to yesterday. Lower dewpoints are accompanying the cooler air so the best chance for any fog or drizzle this morning will be west of the Pecos River where upslope favors formation. Temps in this area should mostly be above freezing so do not expect any ice accumulations.
Upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will push inland a bit today bringing a little warming and lighter northerly winds as surface pressure gradients relax.
Latest sfc analysis places the cold front across north central middle TN with the boundary extending southwest into far northern MS. The all important sfc freezing line is located just south of the OH river. Rainfall currently covers much of the mid state with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s far northwest to the lower 50s Plateau. Lows generally in the lower 20s are expected.
405 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 The progression of the surface cold front is clearly marked by a broken line of robust convection that extends from the Upper Texas Coast, through Central Louisiana and Mississippi and into Alabama. After this primary round of rain exits the area, some redevelopment is possible this afternoon south of Interstate 20 as the upper trough axis crosses the area. Temperatures have already fallen below freezing in Northern McCurtain County. Almost the entire area will be below freezing.
Temperatures are cold this morning with with lows in the lower 20s for most locations. Moderate northwest flow aloft across the region will keep dry and warm weather in place on Thursday, with highs above seasonal averages in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the lower elevations and mainly 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Lows temperatures will also be on the mild side in the 20s and 30s across the Southeast Plains, and mainly in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain.
522 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure continues to shift in from the northwest this morning, and will be over central SD by 12Z, before sinking across eastern NE/KS through the rest of the morning, keeping a ridge extended over the eastern half of SD. The ridge will finally exit our MN counties by 00Z, with warm air advection taking hold tonight. Warmer air aloft, and the addition of significant cloud cover, should keep temperatures from tumbling too far tonight. Models have trended the warm front farther south again on Thursday.
430 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2018 An upper trough covers much of the central and eastern US, while a ridge builds over the west coast. The upper trough will shift eastward today, as the upper ridge spreads over the central states. Highs will range from the lower 20s across northwestern SD to around 40 across parts of northeastern WY. Tonight into Thursday, cold high pressure will sink into the eastern Dakotas ahead of an approaching upper wave.
High pressure will prolong mild and dry weather through the weekend. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected today and Thursday with cooler temperatures expected for the weekend. High pressure and light northeast to east winds will continue to bring clear skies and dry conditions to the area today. At the coast the mos guidance is showing cooler temperatures likely due to the uncertainty on the stratus coverage.
/issued 238 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ A cold front has just passed through Monroe County, MS. The freezing line currently stretches from near Harrisburg, Arkansas northeastward to Union City, TN. North and west of this line, freezing rain or freezing drizzle is occurring while south and east of this line remains rain. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s over the course of the day. With clear skies and light winds, expect temperatures to plummet into the lower to mid 20s for lows. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Thursday as the high shifts east.
Cross-sections show a shallow layer of moisture over the higher terrain thru tonight with a favorable orographic component. At lower elevations a sfc lee trough will begin to develop along the front range with downslope flow by aftn. Thus will see warmer temps over most of nern CO except possibly over the far ern plains. Thus will see periods of gusty winds over the higher terrain and near the foothills, however, speeds will stay blo warning criteria.
Cold front has pushed through all terminal locations with NNW winds sustained near 10kts with a few higher gusts. Cannot rule out some additional showers at the LFK terminal by late morning/afternoon with the passage of the upper trough axis. /issued 405 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ The progression of the surface cold front is clearly marked by a broken line of robust convection that extends from the Upper Texas Coast, through Central Louisiana and Mississippi and into Alabama. After this primary round of rain exits the area, some redevelopment is possible this afternoon south of Interstate 20 as the upper trough axis crosses the area. Temperatures have already fallen below freezing in Northern McCurtain County. Almost the entire area will be below freezing.
1100 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Western Atlc ridge axis extends SW across central FL this morning but will weaken this afternoon as a cool front pushes into the deep south. The southerly flow will increase the low level moisture so there will be more cumulus clouds than yesterday spreading northward. Above normal temps in the lower 80s interior with a few mid 80s possible. A little cooler at the coast owing to a slight onshore component. Conditions not much better over the nearshore waters but expect winds to decrease a bit this afternoon as high pressure ridge weakens ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.
Winds will be south to southwest at 10 to 20 knots with slightly higher gusts this afternoon, becoming mostly north in the wake of a cold front this evening and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will become better developed today as a cold front over central parts of MS and AL moves south to the immediate coast by late afternoon. As a result a few strong thunderstorms can't be ruled out as the sfc cold front approaches from the north by late morning and afternoon with some minor flooding issues also be possible, especially in areas with low terrain and urban areas where poor drainage is common. Highs today will range from the lower to middle 60s for most of the northern half of the forecast area and the middle 60s to lower 70s to the south.
This cyclonic gyre basically pulls energy down from the Arctic Circle which in turn deflects Pacific energy crashing into the RRRidge down towards our latitude.
Expect the low end severe weather/flooding threats and frontal boundary to continue shifting south with time while waning as better forcing shifts east of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will dip below freezing for much of the ArkLaMiss.
Mostly light rain and some scattered thunderstorms will spread from east to west across the region ahead of a cold front. A cold front will push southeastward and move into our CWA this afternoon and evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 28 52 33 / 100 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 26 47 31 / 100 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 26 48 31 / 100 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 24 44 28 / 100 20 0 0 TN.
823 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain mostly dry and mild conditions over the area into mid-week.
Increasing mid/high clouds expected across eastern Oklahoma in association with upper wave rotating around periphery of upper high to the west. Northwest flow aloft prevails over the region today, with the center of the upper level ridge center over the heart of TX, to the west of an unusually deep trough carved out over the eastern CONUS. A small PV max is lifting north over central NM around the western side of the ridge. At the surface, a large anticyclone was centered over northern IL. The cold front that has brought the relatively cooler and drier air into the region stretches from the Florida peninsula back into southern TX.
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/ Better flow and theta-e air will support better chances for showers and thunderstorms over the High Plains this evening and overnight.