Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today's second MCS continues to dive southeast along a warm frontal boundary/instability gradient. 00-06z tonight is shaping up to be a relative lull in precip, but held on to slight chance/low chance PoPs with the warm front still in place. Hi-res ensemble guidance suggests an arcing band of convection spilling over the ridge aloft into the CWA after 07-09z Sunday. The synoptic warm front will gradually lift northeastward through the day, and sfc dewpoints are forecast to climb into the lower 70s in the warm sector.
853 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A warming trend will begin Sunday as the recent unseasonably cold air aloft is replaced by significantly warmer air during the early portion of the upcoming week.
Some mid and upper level ridging is noted and that appears to be helping stabilize the atmosphere a bit. There is some mid and upper level ridging moving in so we will continue to see the activity end from north to south.
1017 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ WV imagery shows the upper trough that was over the wrn CONUS yesterday has moved up into Saskatchewan, trailing a secondary trough that is approaching the Four Corners and leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. Further east, a ridge is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the sfc, a thermal ridge lies over the wrn portion of the CWA. This afternoon looks to be a little cooler than yesterday, but a few locations in the river valleys and Permian Basin could see triple-digit highs before sunset. Sunday, the secondary trough aforementioned above will move into the central CONUS and to near the MS Valley by 12Z Mon.
The front will begin to move southeast as a cold front overnight, and should be nearing I-44 around the prime TSRA development time tomorrow (about 20-22Z). Therefore, the highest probability of storms Sunday afternoon and evening is across the southeast half of our forecast area.
High pressure will maintain rain-free, light-wind, and low humidity weather overnight. Upper ridging will be the dominant feature through Sunday and maintain dry conditions.
Southeast of the closed low, flow is fairly strong with storm motion near 30 kts in the southwest flow. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop to near freezing over the southwestern valleys of western Colorado overnight.
The weekend will conclude with another hot day across South Florida as high pressure continues to dominate. /issued 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ Deep layer ridging centered over the area has kept weather fairly dry and uncomfortably warm across South Florida. As we conclude the weekend, influence from the deep layer ridge is expected to persist.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 92 73 89 / 70 50 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 71 88 / 60 40 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 88 71 88 / 60 40 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 83 66 87 / 50 30 30 50.
Areas of rain will dissipate overnight as a strong upper level low moves away into Saskatchewan. A nearly stationary closed low located over southern Saskatchewan continues to generate areas of rain over northeastern Montana, including portions of Blaine County.
522 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Persistent upper low is drifting just north of the MT/ND/Canadian border, with a secondary low crossing the Great Salt Lake region.
1034 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure continues to prevail this evening.
936 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure building southeastward from Canada will cross the region through Sunday.
A warming trend will begin Sunday as the recent unseasonably cold air aloft is replaced by significantly warmer air during the early portion of the upcoming week.
712 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
A trough of low pressure will exit the region this evening, bringing an end to the scattered showers and thunderstorms.
02z temps are running a degree or two cooler across most areas this evening compared to this same time yesterday evening.
Another round of convection develops late afternoon/early Sunday evening along/ahead of approaching cold front.
928 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
Some mid and upper level ridging is noted and that appears to be helping stabilize the atmosphere a bit.
Broad, low-amplitude ridging is expected to continue to flatten through the period. The tail end of a weak cold front will lay across the Central Mountains this morning, which may serve as a focal point of some morning showers along the Montana border. Ridging is expected to continue to flatten through tomorrow night.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across portions of the area this morning with the highest chances across northern Oklahoma.
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
The 500 mb map is a little more straightforward, with ridging over the eastern Gulf Coast. The western half is dominated by a broad trough with a 568mb low. To the north of that low is a 552mb low, more compact and expected to wobble northward as the southern low rotates around the trough and out of the west Monday.
354 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 This morning the region is stuck between an upper trough over the Rockies and a ridge centered over the Gulf. As the trough moves east a flat ridge will extend W to E across the Southern tier of states Monday with a slow increase in high pressure through mid week. Later in the week the ridge axis shifts west to nrn Mexico. Guidance is expecting cooler conditions tonight/Monday morning with most low temps in the 60s but have been unusually warm overnight in the 70s the past few days. On Monday these low chances spread back across the Lower Trans Pecos. Seasonal low pops will continue through the extended and favor the higher elevations.
327 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Mid level ridging centered over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning will gradually shift east across Florida and into the western Atlantic during the first half of the week while a trough lifts through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. At the surface, the high pressure ridge axis will linger across southern and central Florida through Monday. Subsidence from this stacked ridging at both the surface and aloft will keep warm and stable conditions in place, with high temperatures climbing into the mid 90s inland and around 90 along the coast.
Tonight will be dry and slightly warmer than last couple of nights with low temperatures at or slightly above normal. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday with little change on Monday - around 5 degrees below normal both days.
945 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A low pressure trough over the Southwest will drift east through Monday, allowing the marine layer to thin and retreat back toward the Coast. A more typical Summer pattern will develop this week, with the cooler weather and marine stratus confined to the Coast, and fair and warm to hot afternoons inland. That means ridging over the East and troughing over the West.
Additionally, if the ridge is able to shift northward enough, increased sunshine Monday afternoon will further increase parcel buoyancy. Surface cold front will push through a large portion of the area Monday evening.
A weak cold front on Sunday will keep temperatures below normal with breezy conditions through the Cascade Mountains and out into the basin. Otherwise the persistent weak high pressure coupled with a somewhat moist and unstable airmass will allow for cloud cover and any resulting ceilings to be rather high so VFR conditions should prevail.
This is supported by a strong upper level trough visible on water vapor coming out of the Colorado Rockies giving way to southwest steering flow for these storms. The severe threat will continue through 5am with some weakening the further east these get moving into cooler air with not as much shear or CAPE. Morning low temperatures for Sunday will be cooler in the low 50s to mid 60s warming up into the low 70s to low 80s during the afternoon hours. There is another much lower threat for severe threat late Sunday evening and into the overnight for northern and eastern counties as the aforementioned upper level trough lifts to the east and northeast. Otherwise, eventually mid level ridging is indicated by the EC with warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions.
311 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Another uncomfortably warm day is in store across South Florida today with deep layer ridging remaining in place. The highest heat indices are expected across SW Florida, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Collier and Mainland Monroe Counties to reflect this.
Between the clouds and storms, slightly warmer than seasonable norms, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. Better rain chances will bring more clouds, and slightly cooler conditions with highs in the upper 80s on Monday.
1120 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Lots of clearing over the high mesa zone this evening and though back edge of trough is yet to rotate through. Southeast of the closed low, flow is fairly strong with storm motion near 30 kts in the southwest flow. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop to near freezing over the southwestern valleys of western Colorado overnight.
During the afternoon on Sunday, upper level winds increase and a negatively tilted upper trough moves across the region and interacts with the unstable airmass. The upper trough will shift east of the area on Monday with an upper level ridge building over the southern Plains by midweek, and expanding over much of the central U.
The main upper level wave will eject onto the Plains today and continue to gradually shift the warmer and more unstable air eastward. By tonight low pressure at the surface shifts east and northwest flow develops. Monday will see marginally breezy northwest flow continue to bring in drier and warmer air.
409 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Currently - Pressure ridging across the area is resulting in light east to southeast breezes. Healthy mid and upper level ridging remains across the area with a 590 dam ridge. Forecast - Surface ridging will remain near South Florida and the Keys for much of the week, resulting in light predominantly east to southeast breezes. Mid and upper level ridging will remain healthy. However, the lower level ridge will gradually bifurcate over the Bahamas with the western portion will become centered in the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry weather will continue into Monday as high pressure remains firmly in place. Highs return to near normal in the low to 80s on Monday. This cooler airmass will also help to deter any thunderstorms from becoming severe on Sunday afternoon. Mid-level ridging will build across the central US keeping north central and western Nebraska dry and warm.
A weak cold front on Sunday will keep temperatures below normal with breezy conditions through the Cascade Mountains and out into the basin. Otherwise weak high pressure coupled with a somewhat moist and unstable airmass will allow for cloud cover and any resulting ceilings to be rather high so VFR conditions should prevail.
141 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Very nice weather is expected across the North Country today and Monday as high pressure.
For Today, a warm frontal boundary will lift northeast across the region. For Tonight, warm front will have lifted northeast of the area with convective development dissipating in the evening.
327 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Upper ridge axis is finally expected to start translating east across the region today/tonight shifting the primary zone for more organized convective complexes riding down through the northwest flow out of the forecast area. Weak frontal boundary sinks into the state Monday as the upper ridge axis slips east of the area and the region is brushed by the tail-end of short wave sweeping through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Nearly zonal flow aloft on top of a ridge is expected for the first part of the week. The pattern will shift for the latter part of the week as an upper low meanders over the central Gulf States. The low begins to retrograde by the end of the week/early part of the weekend.
Subsidence associated with the deep layer ridging will act to supress most convective activity across the region.
Warmer and less windy today and Monday, but still a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Upper low has exited the area to the north and flow aloft is transitioning from northerly to westerly this morning.
An upper trough will move over the area by the middle of the week for a good chance of showers. Weak high pressure might build into the area around the end of the week.
Elsewhere, prepare for a quiet and partly cloudy night with lows in the lower 70s. Short range models have struggled lately with convective development, but arrival of a stronger synoptic signature Sunday night (a broader upper level trof) may add a bit more confidence to the next 24 to 30 hours. Short range and synoptic models suggest afternoon hours will be capped to TSRA in advance of the upper trof later Sunday evening.
Another round of convection is possible late afternoon/early Sunday evening along/ahead of approaching cold front.
216 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
Also, scattered convection development along a warm frontal boundary that will move northeast up the Tennessee valley.
1029 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Persistent upper low is drifting just north of the MT/ND/Canadian border, with a secondary low crossing the Great Salt Lake region.
436 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region through this morning, then slides off the coast this afternoon into tonight.
Dynamics will be strong (height falls from the upper trough moving in, right entrance region of the jet, and surface cold front and trough), so if instability can build behind earlier convection then the severe risk would be solid.
134 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 A broad trough covers the western and central CONUS, with the low over southern WY/northwestern CO. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s, with 60s in the Black Hills.
939 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Lots of clearing over the high mesa zone this evening and though back edge of trough is yet to rotate through. Southeast of the closed low, flow is fairly strong with storm motion near 30 kts in the southwest flow. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop to near freezing over the southwestern valleys of western Colorado overnight.
Temperatures this evening will be close to where they have been the last few evenings with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 70s. A cold front will move into northwest Arkansas Monday morning and will be close to the Mid-South by late afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Monday with more clouds and rain expected as highs will be in the mid 80s. The cold front will move into the region Monday night with more thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will be a little cooler than tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure will continue to produce above average temperatures through the remainder of the weekend, especially inland.
242 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 A weak high pressure system will bring clear to partly cloudy skies to the forecast area this morning. It will allow for warmer temperatures today that will be closer to normal. This will bring another cold front in the afternoon and deeper moisture with showers and thunderstorms especially north of the Missouri River.
Warmer daytime temperatures are expected over the next several days, but overnight temperatures will approach frost/freeze levels this morning and Monday morning across the colder high elevation locations.
320 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Rain and snow showers continue along and north of Interstate 70 where favorable orographic flow squeezes out moisture wrapping around our vacating upper level low pressure system. By this afternoon, the upper level low will be kicking east with showers ending from west to east. This strong WAA promises to keep the lows up tonight as we clear out, although a few high valleys (Gunnison) may yet dip down toward that freezing mark by early Monday morning. Will hold on any additional freeze highlights as guidance has been trending warmer. Valley temps rebound into the 70s and 80s with 60s planned for the higher elevations. More June-like pattern setting up as we see a ridge of high pressure build across the area driving our lingering low level moisture eastward by mid-week.
648 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed across the local area overnight as an upper level low visible in satellite imagery near the Colorado/Wyoming state line slowly began to shift east. Expect this low to finally make its way across the local area late tonight. Ahead of this low. Monday will be a day of transition across the local area as we will have an area of low pressure exiting to the east with generally westerly flow aloft ahead of an upper level low forecast to dig across the west coast. an upper level low is expected to meander across the Pacific northwest for several days while high pressure amplifies aloft across the plains.
Isentropic fields depicting enhanced ascent later today as H5 trough begins to lift northeast across central and northern plains, so expect up-tic in coverage of convection later this morning. Kinematic forcing also expected to increase with approach of upper trough, with projected 0-6km bulk shear 45-65kt. Cold core of upper low also will result in showers and isolated thunder across northeast Nebraksa and northwest Iowa.
Better rain chances are on tap for today as the ridge axis shifts a bit to the east and a plume of MSTR situated over the WRN Gulf is drawn into the region amid deep S/SW flow. Slightly elevated rain chances remain in the forecast on TUE, but look to decline WED and THU as the ridge center drifts to the NW and traverses the region. PoPs increase FRI and into the weekend as an inverted trof develops over the region between two ridge centers over the WRN Atlantic and Desert SW.
Temperatures will be warmer today, but still be slightly below normal for this time of year.
Water vapor loop indicated upper low over eastern SASK with a short wave trough into southeast MAN. Upper trough will will produce a more westerly flow for today. Upper level low pressure system over CO will move into NE by 12Z Mon.
More stable conditions and drier air was over the local area this morning compared to yesterday as a mean layer 1000-700 mb ridge axis amplified across the central FL panhandle, bringing increased subsidence west-east today. Convective growth will be suppressed across much of inland NE FL and over our inland western GA zones including the Suwannee River Valley under stronger subsidence due to the building ridge, but a few spotty showers will be possible through the early evening hours as the west coast sea breeze drifts inland. There was still about 26 kts of bulk 0-6 km shear, which will focus across our eastern zones as ridging strengthens in from the west.
521 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
330 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019 A low pressure trough over the Southwest will drift east through Monday for warmer days and a shallower marine layer.
1009 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
One more day of cooler than normal high temperatures then gradually turning hotter this week as high pressure builds over the region.
These showers are weakening and are expected to continue to diminish while slowly following the trough axis out of the area. The trough itself will propagate eastward away from Wyoming today, and should be out of the region by nightfall.
730 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Main concern through the forecast period convection development along a warm frontal boundary that will move northeast up the Tennessee valley today. Once the warm front moves east of the TAF site the chances of storms will diminish.
With tonight being warmer than last night, should preclude any temperatures capable of producing frost. Otherwise, today should continue the warming trend as the low responsible for the cooler weather drifts eastward.
518 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 A broad trough covers the western and central CONUS, with the low over southern WY/northwestern CO. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s, with 60s in the Black Hills.
Deep layered ridging will hold firm across the Florida Keys and the adjacent coastal waters resulting in limited moisture and a stable airmass. Resplendent sunshine and light winds will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower 90s along most of the island chain. Light to occasional east to southeast winds will prevail on all Keys coastal waters with the higher winds on the Straits of Florida beyond 20 nm.
912 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure continues to ridge across south FL today, with dry and hot conditions expected again this afternoon. The forecast is on track with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and some pockets of upper 90s inland, with heat index values of 100-105. W/SW flow will continue across the waters with high pressure ridging across south FL.
Water vapor imagery showing a closed low along the Wyoming/Colorado stateline west of Rawlins this morning. GFS has closed upper low just south of Cheyenne by 15Z this morning with wrap around moderate precipitation across the center CWFA continuing through the afternoon. upper low forecast to be just west of North Platte with precip ending from west to east this evening. Upper ridging builds in behind departing low with GFS 700mb winds increasing to 40-45kts by 12Z Monday.
Meanwhile, a cold front located over the Panhandle was slowly dropping south. Looking aloft, a 500mb trough was moving out of the central Rockies, resulting in steady southwest flow over much of the southern Plains. The main show looks to take place later this evening and overnight, when the aforementioned upper level trough will pass through the southern and central Plains.
757 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
however, low shear and weak mid-level ridging will work to keep storm coverage to a minimum. A pattern-changing trough will spark showers and thunderstorms, moving east across the area through mid day Monday.
948 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure slides off the coast this afternoon into tonight.
The models show the upper low which is producing snow across I-80 in Wyoming moving over wrn and ncntl Nebraska today. Dry weather will continue into Monday as high pressure remains firmly in place. Highs return to near normal in the low to 80s on Monday. This cooler airmass will also help to deter any thunderstorms from becoming severe on Sunday afternoon. Mid-level ridging will build across the central US keeping north central and western Nebraska dry and warm.
448 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed across the local area overnight as an upper level low visible in satellite imagery near the Colorado/Wyoming state line slowly began to shift east. Expect this low to finally make its way across the local area late tonight. Ahead of this low. Monday will be a day of transition across the local area as we will have an area of low pressure exiting to the east with generally westerly flow aloft ahead of an upper level low forecast to dig across the west coast. an upper level low is expected to meander across the Pacific northwest for several days while high pressure amplifies aloft across the plains.
GAH PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION: A weak high pressure system will bring clear to partly cloudy skies to the forecast area this morning. It will allow for warmer temperatures today that will be closer to normal. This will bring another cold front in the afternoon and deeper moisture with showers and thunderstorms especially north of the Missouri River.