Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, warmer temperatures were noted in the central and southern Plains with readings well into the 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s. Friday: Low pressure will develop in the central Plains with a warm front developing along Highway 34 in se IA/western IL. Extensive cloud cover in our northern cwa will keep temperatures much cooler compared to our far south closer to the warm front.
A weak trough over eastern Montana/Wyoming will continue to move off to the east today. A cold front associated with this system will push through the area tonight. Expect overnight temperatures to be cooler tonight due the cold front passage. A strong southwesterly flow aloft will be over the region on Friday night, ahead of an upper level trough over central Idaho at that time.
With this change in cloud cover and a ridge axis planted over eastern Kentucky, subsidence will set in and with out the low level deck over the area, the fog will develop tonight and possibly dense in some of the valleys. By tomorrow, high pressure will be in full swing. As skies clear, fog may begin to form, however the extent will be limited once more, as southerly flow and an approaching cold front lead to an increase in clouds for the later half of the night. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, but southerly flow on Friday night will lead to more mild temperatures, with lows generally in the upper 50s to around 60.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 81 56 81 / 10 10 10 10.
With diurnal mixing coming into play with ridging influences sfc/aloft building across the area 13/14Z-14/06Z, thus eventually providing VFR/SKC conditions to all terminals.
1126 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region tonight and will shift east on Friday.
High pressure builds in for Friday and lasts into the weekend.
A strong low pressure system will move through this weekend.
1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Subsidence associated with an upper level ridge will keep things hot and dry for the next few days with few aviation weather concerns. The warm-up will continue Friday as an upper level ridge centered to our southeast continues to dominate our weather.
Moisture was abundant in the lowest few thousand feet. Deep northeast to east flow prevailed, southeast of a deep layer mean anticyclone centered along the northern Gulf coast, and northwest of a deep, but weak and broad trough centered over Cuba. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Hawk Channel, the Straits of Florida, and the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, west of the Seven Mile Bridge. A broad, weak trough will move westward across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters overnight and Friday.
629 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 An upper level ridge continues to dominate the Southern CONUS including most of North and Central Texas, which will keep the overall tranquil weather going for the next 24 to 36 hours. The warm-up will continue Friday as an upper level ridge centered to our southeast continues to dominate our weather.
H85 temps are prog to be a degree or two warmer on Friday which should translate to max sfc temps being around 90 across inland areas and mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Pesky stratus deck has dominated the weather today in the absence of any strong surface pressure gradient to help scour out the low levels. Expect the low clouds to hang on well into the evening, with just partial clearing in southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky, but a build-down or even some fog in south-central Kentucky where the 925mb moisture is more solid. Still have a strong inversion between 900-850mb to limit the depth of mixing, so Friday max temps will top out in the lower/mid 70s, which is actually just slightly above climo and splits the difference between the bullish GFS MOS temps and the pessimistic NAM MOS.
This cyclone is apparently associated with a low-amplitude perturbation translating through the mid-MO Valley, embedded within a prevailing southwesterly mid-level flow regime.
Medium The cold front swings through the area. So have high POPS across the area for Friday evening with the low level forcing and along stream upper jet divergence noted.
/issued 345 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes ridging swwd through the forecast area, maintaining a light and variable flow. Water vapor imagery shows ridging aloft in place from nrn old Mexico across the Gulf Coast region to the wrn Atlantic. The forecast remains rain-free into the weekend as high pressure holds sfc/aloft, although increasing low-level moisture will lead to warmer/muggier conditions over the next couple of days. Sunrise temps Friday morning look to run just a tick warmer than this morning.
Once the low clouds burn off late-morning Friday, VFR conditions will be in place all three TAF sites. /issued 239 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ An elongated upper ridge will be centered over the lower Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft across our region to close out the week.
1030 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Upper trough sits across the western CONUS this afternoon with upper ridging over the eastern half. The cold front which pushed through western SD this morning has just cleared south central SD. Quiet weather is expected Friday as the next trough digs deeper over the Pac NW into the Great Basin.
630 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Light to calm winds are expected overnight with high pressure just east of Arkansas.
We took the SuperBlend guidance for temperatures and adjusted them down using a blend of the high resolution WRF and NAM models, which obviously handle High Plains fronts and the airmasses behind them, much better than global models and MOS guidance. Some of the lower end models on temperatures are showing 21z temps still in the 50s across portions of west central KS, so it's possible a trend downward in tomorrow temperatures could continue next forecast cycle tonight.
The forecast area was under the influence of a southerly flow ahead of a cold front that was moving through the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. The cold front is progged to reach the western portion of the forecast area by midnight. The cold front will progress into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin overnight. Showers or drizzle will still be found ahead of the trof over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, ending from West to East over northeast Minnesota. The cold front exits the Arrowhead in the morning, and the eastern Wisconsin portion of the forecast area by noon. The precipitation will end and high pressure will build across the region through the day. The airmass will be drier and cooler. Max temps will be a few degrees cooler than today.
Radar indicates light rain showers will overspread the Lower Treasure Valley this evening, and begin in the Boise area around 10 PM.
These clouds trapped in a strong inversion under nearby high pressure ridge to our northeast and light winds which will likely keep skies cloudier into tonight. Lows overnight in the lower 50s, with some mid 50s in east central IL.
Relative minima in activity currently, with analysis showing a *slightly* drier airmass wrapping around the low and into the region. Models depict the axis of the low level tropical wave crossing the region overnight, and expect another upswing in coverage late tonight/towards daybreak as we get on the more favorable side of the feature.
A large upper level trough will maintain a cool showery air mass over Western Washington through Friday.
Carrying MVFR ceilings at all of our TAF sites except KABI, which should be near or just nort of the low cloud field.
Latest sat imagery shows the low level stratus which covers the north central and northwestern portions of the mid state, currently. Ridging influences sfc/aloft should provide for VFR/SKC conditions 13/14Z-13/24Z.
1134 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Broad trough aloft located across the Pac NW northward into western Canada with an area of upper level high pressure across the southeastern U. However, KCYS and KLNX radars are showing the location of the weak cold front that is moving southeast this afternoon, located along a line from just east of VTN to CYS. The aforementioned cold front will continue moving southeast across the area and should be through most of western and north central NE by evening.
/12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Friday: This afternoon through Friday: High pressure continues its hold over the region. With the anomalous high pressure still locked over the region, some daily record highs could be neared.
/Issued 309 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ A weak cold front has made its way through much of the area, bringing a slightly drier airmass to the northern half of Georgia but not much in the way of cooler temperatures. Despite the increased cloud cover and northeasterly flow on Friday, temperatures will not be significantly affected for most areas, though highs will be a few degrees cooler in northeast Georgia.
Skies will become partly sunny on Friday and it will be warmer with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
A cold front will move across the GUY and DHT TAF sites switching the wind around to the north.
We remain rain free today under the influence of subsidence with a high pressure ridge across a good portion of Eastern Conus and north/east flow around it across our forecast area. We are looking for overnight low temperatures to be a little cooler tonight as cold air advection continues to filter into the area with northerly flow.
740 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region tonight and will shift east on Friday.
Possible that this could be a weak cold front. The main cold front that is not too far north of our area will push through the area tonight. Depending on the location, the cold air advection and cloud cover will lower the high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees.
Cool showery weather will give way to high pressure over the weekend.
816 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will cross the area tonight then move east of the region Friday.
930 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Building high pressure will suppress clouds and rain chances for the close of the week. The late afternoon update featured adjustments to already small precip chances and included some cosmetic drizzle and fog additions to the eastern ridges and portions of the I 80 corridor. Boundary layer downsloping with sufficient wind magnitude under the increased subsidence will end rain chances outside of the aforementioned drizzle areas, and further erode some of the low cloud cover as well.
600 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Aviation Section Updated An upper level low pressure trough will keep temperatures well below normal with unsettled conditions through Friday night.
Slightly cooler temperatures aloft with the approach of the low along with the deepening moisture will bring an isolated threat (<20%) for thunder back into the forecast overnight, mainly over the Atlantic waters of the Treasure Coast. Low pressure to the south will elongate out as it reaches into the eastern Gulf with gradient weakening a bit between this feature and high pressure to the north. Low pressure to the south will drift west across the Fl Straits and northern Cuba, then elongate into the eastern Gulf on Fri. Enhanced moisture north of the low pressure will also result in numerous showers and a few storms across the southern legs.
Ridging influences sfc/aloft should provide for VFR/SKC conditions 13/14Z-13/24Z.
/issued 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/ Upper-level ridge to maintain clear and dry conditions overnight. With moisture gradually increasing, low temps to be slightly warmer than previous nights, ranging from the upper 50s across southern Arkansas to the mid 60s across deep east Texas.
857 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 A quiet night across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians this evening, with high pressure built in at the surface and aloft. A light NW flow will continue to filter in drier air into the region, especially over the Shoals and NW Alabama, where dewpoints are progged to drop off into the lower 50s. The combination of the cool, dry air mass and light winds will allow temperatures to fall from the 60s this evening into the low to mid 50s by early Friday morning. Given the warm water temperatures (and the surrounding cooler land), am expecting a good possibility for patchy steam fog to develop later tonight along rivers/lakes.
A few coastal showers may reach Flagler county by morning as a trough moves west across s Fl. Low temperatures will range from the mid/upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s coast.
Carrying MVFR ceilings at all of our TAF sites except KABI, which should be near or just nort of the low cloud field. Carrying MVFR ceilings at all of our TAF sites except KABI, which should be near or just nort of the low cloud field.
Surface analysis from this afternoon across the region shows the cold front that shifted through yesterday has nearly stalled across central GA through the Carolinas. High pressure was quick to re- establish. Temps across the area this afternoon are currently ranging in the low to mid 70s, with higher values in the eastern half of the CWA where clouds were quicker to burned off.
1152 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 CLear skies and pleasant temperatures are expected this evening and overnight as southerly winds continue to bring warmer and more moist air into the area.
Satellite show low clouds forming in the Lower Trans Pecos and according to NAM12/RAP13 mostly MVFR CIGS will expand especially after 09Z. Southwesterly flow aloft as well as a westward building ridge extending across the southern CONUS have been the driving forces behind the warmer temperatures, while an upper trough continues to linger across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
1058 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 High pressure will cross the area tonight then move east of the region Friday.
Wisps of cirrus continue to rotate around an impressive 594+ dm upper high south of San Diego. Unseasonably warm temperatures will approach near record levels this afternoon in the low to mid 70s (the record at Dodge City is 74 and normal is lower 50s). Light SW winds at sunrise will trend northerly and modestly gusty by midday, as the next dry cold front arrives.
Around the Northeast periphery of a large upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast sections of the country, high level moisture will be spreading mainly cirrus between 20-28 KFT into the ARKLATEX. /issued 345 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/ High pressure centered near Temple Texas is at 1020mb with a broad area of sprawling 1018mb contour stretching from central Texas and overhead into Arkansas. The current air mass is going to drift Eastward very slowly over the next day or so with some warmer Southerly winds soon to return.
Temperatures are running about 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, largely due to influence of upr trough and northeasterly flow advecting low lvl cooler/drier air across the forecast area. Broad area of low pressure moving across central Florida is responsible for the thicker cloud-cover across much of southeast Georgia.
Considering mid-November more limited sunshine, and potential for mid-clouds returning in the afternoon, still thinking temps should peak in the mid 50s to around 60 before cold front moves through during the late afternoon and evening. Sloping frontogenetical forcing and enhanced forcing from right entrance region may have just enough atmospheric moisture to result in a few light showers near the cold front.
1033 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will move off to the east on Friday.
Temperatures should still be mild ahead of the front with highs slightly cooler than today ahead of the front.
Main concerns for the short term are the slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle in far northeast Minnesota tonight and warm temperatures with rain chances on Friday. Warm air advection aloft will continue tonight with 850 mb temperatures already well above freezing for much of the Northland and a thermal ridge farther west over the western Dakotas. BUFKIT soundings from the NAM and RAP over northeast Minnesota keep a substantial dry layer in place below the cloud deck, which will limit drizzle/freezing drizzle potential tonight. The Friday system exits the system fairly quickly Friday night, leaving some drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow chances for mainly the Arrowhead and parts of northwest Wisconsin Friday night.
Overall, low temperatures tonight expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s (although a little warmer near the larger TN River lakes). Friday should be another pleasant day, albeit warmer, as weak southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front boosts temperatures by another 5 degrees or so. Highs should reach well into the lower 60s, and based on guidance biases, the forecast will have a few spots reaching the mid 60s.
Light southerly winds across the ArkLaMiss Delta area may be just enough to keep temperatures in that area above freezing tonight. Steady light southerly winds return to the whole forecast area tomorrow, and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today in response.
/issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/ A strong upper-level ridge extending from the coast of socal into the southern plains has produced beautiful weather for Thanksgiving today with mid-afternoon temps in the 70s and light winds.
710 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A stationary boundary will remain to the South of the region Tonight, with waves of low pressure moving East along it.
858 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Patchy thick cirrus continues to rotate around a strong mid-level anticyclone centered just west of Baja CA this evening. Warmer air aloft spreads east during the day which will aid a modest warmup into the lower 70s across parts of eastern OK with 65 to 70 for northwest AR. Southerly winds will gust to 25 mph, especially along and north of I-44, and temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
Temperatures are tending to warm above freezing as the thicker cloud cover and showers arrive, but road temperatures are hovering near the freezing mark, so will have very light rain and freezing rain mentioned in the forecast. Suspect that bridges and overpasses will be most susceptible to a light glaze of ice. Surface data suggests a subtle wind shift working over eastern Wisconsin this afternoon was associated with an 850 trough sliding over the area. After a period of weak ridging in its wake, southwest winds will redevelop and the warming trend will intensify. These warmer temps may need to be expanded further north, but at this time, clouds and scattered showers will be dropping into the state during the day. The 850 mb trough is already departing eastern wisconsin toward late afternoon.
1005 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday.
553 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A series of low pressure systems will track from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida and offshore the Carolinas through Friday night, providing variable cloudiness along with a slight chance of light rain, mainly in southern and eastern areas.
Afternoon GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows that the mid-level trough axis has moved across north Alabama/southern Tennessee. Despite a cold start this morning (most dropped into the 20s), the full sunshine is causing temperatures to respond nicely, with everyone in the low-mid 50s. Another clear/cold night with light/variable winds is on tap for tonight with high pressure. Friday should be another pleasant day, albeit warmer, as weak southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front boosts temperatures by another 5 degrees or so. Highs should reach well into the lower 60s, and based on guidance biases, the forecast will have a few spots reaching the mid 60s.
1015 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will move slowly off the coast through Friday.
619 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday.
Lee troughing will strengthen overnight into Friday ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front. Downslope southwesterly winds and a strong low-level thermal ridge axis nosing from the southern High Plains into Kansas, will promote near record to record warmth across the forecast area Friday afternoon. Slightly cooler, but still above normal, air will spread southward into the forecast area behind the Pacific front, Friday night into this weekend.
A closed upper low sits over the southern portion of the Hudson Bay with deep troughing extending south along the east coast into the central Gulf of Mexico. This trough is lending support to an area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and associated frontal boundary that is sweeping across Florida today. High pressure will build into the Gulf of Mexico late Friday bringing clearing conditions into the weekend. Temperatures will be slightly below average over the next couple of days as the high pressure filters in cooler air in the wake of the low pressure and frontal boundary. This will usher in a rather prolonged period of relatively cool and dry conditions with a series of reinforcing cold fronts and dry/stable post-frontal airmasses.
High pressure over the area will continue to produce light northerly surface winds and scattered high clouds. /ISSUED 248 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/ Temps are currently in the lower to mid 60s under sunny skies and light northerly winds.
1003 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will move off to the east on Friday.
Ahead of this wave, weak lee troughing will develop over the area and southwest winds will develop Friday afternoon.
Drier, cooler air continues to move south over the forecast area, and in combination with good radiational cooling will allow temps to drop to well below seasonal again tonight. Lows expected to range from the low 30s far north (with a few local drops below 30) to around 40 well southeast of I65 and along the Fl coast. With the dry airmass, good daytime heating will allow temps to rise to around normal (northwest) to a bit above normal (southeast), with this area seeing a bit less of the cooler push. The ECMWF is tending to be the warmer solution, the NAM the coolest.
A high amplitude pattern persists across the nation on this Thanksgiving Day with a deep upper-level longwave trough that extends southwest from the northeast states down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and into the Florida panhandle while an expansive upper-level ridge was centered offshore just southwest of southern California. Expect fair skies with another cold night across our northern and western counties overnight with strong high pressure nearby, light winds are expected with good radiational cooling conditions expected overnight with freezing temperatures expected north and west. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20's northwest to around 40 southeast with coldest temperatures expected in the lower elevation areas north and west.
524 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure ridge over the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, and southwesterly winds will become more southerly as the evening progresses, decreasing as the boundary layer decouples for the overnight. As a mid level thermal ridge slips into the Midwest going into Friday, tomorrow 850 mb temps surge to 9-13C. Between the warm advection and ample sunshine, can expect temperatures to climb into the lower 60s and upper 50s for Central IL. Pressure gradient increasing at the surface will result in the potential for some gusty winds in advance of a developing cold front to the northwest.
High amplitude upper pattern, characterized by a ridge over the WRN CONUS/trough over the ERN CONUS, is predicted to become quasi-zonal as upper disturbances from the West Coast flatten the foregoing ridge. ) Anticipate that increasing moisture in the vertical column will preclude freezing overnight temps. (Nil SREF probabilities of freezing surface temps overnight over the CWA adds credence to above freezing forecast. ) Will forecast a few degrees lower than the SuperBlend, resulting in readings from the upper 30s to the the lower 40s over the CWA. Warmer Friday and Friday night.