Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW NOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH AND ENTERING BUTLER WILL BE EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WITH TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW IN THE RIDGES. AN UPPER LOW/TROF IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS ONTARIO INTO THE NE CONUS MON AND TUE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TUE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ARE EXPD TO CONTINUE ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THRU TUE MRNG.
525 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 2F5. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TONIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATES AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM MIDDLE/EAST TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ALONG AND SOUGH OF I-40. /ISSUED 309 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR PARIS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS NOT REACHING FREEZING.
/00Z TAFS/ WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE AREA GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT. WITH ABOUT 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY DOING SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT 18Z TODAY THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED OUR CWA AND STRONG. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
Have received a few reports of spotty freezing drizzle and light snow across parts of NE OK and NW AR this evening. This is also supported by the latest point soundings which show significant drying the low-levels after 06z.
643 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT MAKING FAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO ALL AREAS BETWEEN 03-05Z AND STAY THAT WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER OUR N-CNTL ZONES. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOTED EXTENDING SWWD INTO COASTAL SERN TX. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
310 PM MST THU JAN 21 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SOME WARMING.
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING MILD WEATHER AND PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
/issued 350 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) The upper trough over central and eastern Texas this afternoon will move into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Within this trough a closed low is developing over northeastern Texas, and will track across northern Louisiana tonight. Temperatures will be colder tonight with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s across some of our western and northwestern counties, to the lower 30s elsewhere. A broad upper ridge will build over the heart of the nation, during the next 48 hours.
OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SW ARKANSAS. BELIEVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS SW ARKANSAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HOPE TO EL DORADO. BELIEVE THE TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ALONG WITH GRASSY SURFACES.
948 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 PRECIPITATION FROM THE STRONG LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER IN OUR AREA.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE MID- ATLANTIC AND HELP INDUCE A SECONDARY STRONG AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. THEREFORE HAVE STEERED AWAY FROM THE NAM SOLUTIONS OF ACCUMULATING LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOWFALL IN THE CORRIDOR WEST OF THE RIDGES OVER MORGANTOWN SPECIFICALLY. OUTSIDE THE RIDGES COULD DIFFER WITHIN A FEW MILES OR MORE OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE SURFACE-BASED RIDGING OTHERWISE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
Model output weakens this feature with time, but will need to up PoPs to account for light freezing drizzle mix with or changing to light snow this evening. Freezing drizzle that occurred this morning over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas has largely dissipated for now, but it is suspected that some re-development can be expected later this afternoon and especially this evening. In addition, northeast to northerly surface winds will increase as well as low pressure deepens across the Deep South. These increasing low level wind fields tend to increase the magnitude of collision/coalescence going in the lower atmosphere. Clouds will likely stay in place most of the day tomorrow, and with continued cold air advection, temps will struggle to reach freezing in many spots.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THERE IS A GOOD CHANGE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OFF LAKE HURON WILL REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF METRO. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND SO WILL FLURRIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
817 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 BROAD/WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS INLAND TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NEAR THE LAKESHORES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL END INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
430 PM MST THU JAN 21 2016 RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE UT-CO STATE LINE BY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CARRY PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED. SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR WARMING/MOISTENING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AND 24-HOUR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.
THIS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN LA/MS. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WAS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING ALONG THE LA/TX BORDER. AS A RESULT, PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-4 MB IN JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS. NOT ALOT OF CHANGE IN FORECAST SYNOPTIC FIELDS SINCE YESTERDAY WRT THE UPPER LOW AND WINTER STORM.
538 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARM UP.
/ISSUED 323 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ Ongoing precip across SE OK will continue to track eastward through the evening associated with mid level trough axis. Precip type will largely be either freezing drizzle or light snow with any measurable snow chances likely confined to the highest terrain of far SE OK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE BEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN A STRIPE TO THE NW OF THE LOW TRACK DURING THE MAINLY THE MORNING FRIDAY. UNFAVORABLE POSITIONING WITH RESPECT THE LOW LOOKS TO ONLY ALLOW A MIXING OF RAIN WITH THE SNOW AT FIRST AND THEN JUST FLURRIES AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHTNESS AND SHORT DURATION AND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT THAT CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND FROM A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH.
COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE SQUALL LINE. AND MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAKING FAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO ALL AREAS BETWEEN 03-05Z AND STAY THAT WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER OUR N-CNTL ZONES. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOTED EXTENDING SWWD INTO COASTAL SERN TX. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
706 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN IN THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
913 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFF THE COAST AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST. 925MB/850MB WIND FIELDS SEEM TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE EAST.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. /ISSUED 310 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DFW AREA AS OF 20Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
620 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 HEART OF UPPER LOW MOVG EASTWARD INTO NORTH LA THIS EVE. OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SW ARKANSAS. BELIEVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS SW ARKANSAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HOPE TO EL DORADO. BELIEVE THE TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ALONG WITH GRASSY SURFACES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM.
WILL NEED TO BUMP UP THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET A TOUCH. THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THIS AREA LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN 6 AM AND 8 AM WITH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FALLING PRIOR TO THAT TIME. ONLY CHANGE FOR NOW WILL BE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AREA TOWARD WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON OUR NORTHWEST AS MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 6 AM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE E/NE, WINDS WILL TURN MORE NE'WD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
STILL WILL ADD POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN TO ALL BUT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHEAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 39 30 36 / 100 100 100 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 38 27 33 / 100 90 100 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 36 27 33 / 100 100 100 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 31 24 29 / 90 90 100 80 NC.
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTH THAN GUIDANCE HAD PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED WITH READINGS STILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURE HAVE ROSE ABOVE FREEZING WITH READINGS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE ARKLATEX.
IN ADDITION, AN ANALYSIS OF THE DUCTING FUNCTION ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TONIGHT, THE LOWS FOR FRIDAY MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN RAIN MIXING WITH.
PESKY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KEMP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY END. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO STAY AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. EVEN WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MID/UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR FRI EVENING THROUGH SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
Upper low over eastern Kansas this afternoon with water vapor showing additional waves over north Texas and the Dakotas. Weak isentropic ascent on modest warm air advection near the surface could yet support some light freezing drizzle into the early evening in southeastern areas but still appears this will be light if anything. Weak cold air advection takes hold overnight into Friday as high pressure builds in. This will allow for southerly flow and a lee side trough in the high plains.
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
After sunrise, showers and storms should be ending as a weak cold front moves into the area. Scattered showers and storms will continue ahead of a weak cold front, but coverage should remain limited. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) A weak cold front will move south into the Big Country tonight. With unstable air and some weak upper support, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the Low Rolling Plains and into the Big Country this afternoon. On Saturday, the weak cold front will progress south through our central and southern counties. The weak cold front tomorrow will serve as a potential focus for additional showers and thunderstorms, across mainly our southeastern counties, tomorrow night.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS.
914 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAIN AND THEN RAMPED UP AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
521 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION THE STRENGTHENING GREAT BASIN RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLEX INTO THIS FORECAST AREA WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN OHIO. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THE RATHER DEEP LOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A VERY COOL SEASON LIKE WRAPROUND OF MUCH COOLER AND MOIST AIR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT HAVE HELPED TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN WILL PRODUCE WARM AIR ALOFT AND LIKELY CAP CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY.
OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED FROM ROUGHLY NEAR 30 NORTH 67 WEST SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN CUBA. THERE IS A MID AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A REGIONAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE KEYS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BUT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS RECEIVED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN A MID EVENING CLOUD LINE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE IN EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD NEAR OUR MARINE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES.
/ISSUED 1008 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE AS WE WATCH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD OUR AREA.
COLD FRONT AS OF 02Z APPEAR TO BE ORIENTED ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST LINE OF CONVECTION OR FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHERN OK ATTM. /ISSUED 731 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS SOME SVR.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 83 63 85 / 70 80 20 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 81 60 82 / 80 80 20 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 80 60 82 / 80 80 20 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 78 58 79 / 80 80 30 10.
450 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH TODAY.
/ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ THE PANHANDLES HAS BEEN RELATIVELY VOID OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS.
731 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS SOME SVR. /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WEAKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN COOLER LOW LYING LOCATIONS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
/ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH IA IN TRANSITION REGION BETWEEN SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH. FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP WITH COLD FRONT ALOFT NOTED IN THE THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW 8 KNOTS BY 03Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN OHIO. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
747 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015 A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE WESTERN US RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS FARTHER EAST.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND. SUPPORTED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUPPORTING A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HINDER CONVECTION FROM BECOMING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
Surface observations across the region indicate a few more "kinks" in the low level flow with the dewpoint drop lagging well behind the main front. As a result, bands of convection will continue to slide south early this evening, falling apart after dark as instability subsides and high pressure begins to build into the area. A cold front is currently tracking south through the area this afternoon and will continue to track south through the area this afternoon. A cooler air mass will start to spread into the area overnight as lows drop into the lower 60s tonight. Some patchy fog will be possible as moist grounds from the recent rain interacts with the cooler air mass. Cooler conditions will occur on Saturday as highs warm into the middle 70s to near the 80 degree mark under mostly sunny skies.
908 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH OFF OF THE WEST COAST IS WORKING WITH THAT HIGH TO INDUCE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MEDFORD CWA.
WHILE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO LOW OVER THE PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE PENINSULA ON MON WHICH WOULD BRING SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION TO THE AREA.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES BY 06Z. /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
1117 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY.
With the cold front still well to our west over southern IL/southeast MO, still think we'll see showers with embedded storms periodically through the evening and early morning hours. At the moment, vertical shear profiles indicate veered but pretty weak flow through the lowest levels so still not impressed with the initial supercell threat. However, as we move into the evening hours flow should improve across our northern CWA, increasing the threat for a few supercells, mainly closer to the warm front over central IN. Small hail may not be out of the question given the low freezing leveles and steep low and mid level lapse rates. Highs will be much cooler in the low and mid 70s.
759 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.