Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1126 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH TERMINAL WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MORE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE NUDGES A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND KEEPS ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST NEAR THE NM MOUNTAINS AND NUDGES OUR DAYTIME HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 UPPER RIDGE NOT MOVG. /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ THE CENTER OF THE UPPER DEATH RIDGE HASN/T CHANGED MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HURS. AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE RIDGE CENTER. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
832 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BRING SOME WARMER 850MB AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AND WITH SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD AGAIN GET CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
Operational models keep the upper level high pressure nearly stationary across the state.
Currently have some isolated showers and storms generally near the higher terrain regions early this evening. Highs will be near 100 in the Permian Basin, a little warmer in the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys and a little cooler in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.
945 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE AND AVIATION SECTIONS A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY STORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PRIMARY ISSUE BEFORE CONVECTION SUBSIDES LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP LOW END CHC POPS FOR ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. QUIET WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER TO RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CANADA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
849 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
1047 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
1002 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THE CENTER OF THE UPPER DEATH RIDGE HASN/T CHANGED MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HURS. AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE RIDGE CENTER. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH IS STILL PARKED OVER TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAINFALL GIVEN THE RIDGE.
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG WERE IN BARBER COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING BY SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IOWA/CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING SOUTHEAST OF A MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT EXPECT TO ADVANCE EAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE (ABOVE 13. THE CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
752 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
911 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FOR 06Z FORECAST UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXARKANA AT 04Z WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS AN EVENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PREDAWN SHOWER CHANCES WERE ADDED BASED ON THE HIGH RES HANDLING. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT IS POISED FOR AN UPPER OHIO REGION INVASION.
640 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
653 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDING IN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT EXPECT PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WE LIKELY WILL SEE A FEW TSRA GIVEN OUR HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES, MOST LIKELY IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES, PARTLY AIDED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BASICALLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST APPEARS BEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE AN UPPER TROF DIGS A BIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
1252 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION/OMEGA FIELD MAXING OUT AT AROUND 500MB WHERE THE HIGHEST RH IS LOCATED. IT WOULD APPEAR BASED ON RADAR THAT THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITYS HAVE LARGELY BEEN IN BETWEEN OBSERVING/REPORTING STATIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THE WESTERLY FLOWS TO ONE DOMINATED BY A LARGE MIGRATING UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST THAT BRINGS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST.
225 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
517 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.
417 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITION IN PLACE AT BNA AND CSV THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
416 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
301 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH RIDGING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST WHILE UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
ATWELL RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA GIVING US A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THESE WAVES BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE DEPENDS ON THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE LOW.
IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.
SW CONUS UPPER LOW COMING ON SHORE AND IS PROVIDING BACKING LL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE ADVANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE CURRENT WESTERLY FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST OREGON LATE MONDAY LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH MEAN TROFS OVER THE WRN CONUS AND BAHAMAS/WRN ATLANTIC. AND A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NE TWD THE MID ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED GENERALLY OFF TO THE EAST. WITH QUASI-PERSISTENT TROFINESS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROF. BECOMING A LITTLE MORE RESTRICTED THU AND FRI AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUILDS A BIT. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN OUT ON SAT AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT FROM THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 13 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
14 /ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL KEEP ALABAMA ON THE WARM AND SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/ WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
435 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FIRING OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF MOST RIDGELINES THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CARRIES CONVECTION NORTH OF THE RIDGES. THIS LOOKS MOST PROBABLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WHILE NORTH CENTRAL SD IS STARTING TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS.
254 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE A TROF PROGRESSES INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A TROUGH-WEST / RIDGE-EAST PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXPAND. DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS EACH DAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD RIDGE HOLDS SWAY OVER THE SE CONUS. THE DEEP RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY TEND TO RETROGRADE AND BY WED WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY.
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL BUILD TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
WARMER START THIS AM AND 925MB AFTN TEMPS ON ORDER OF ABOUT 3C WARMER SUPPORTS MODICUM OF INCRS IN ALREADY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRIOR FCST.
AS THE MODELS HAVE KEPT THAT LAST UPPER LOW IN THE AREA LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s. Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should yield highs in the low to mid 80s.
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FA FOR DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH COOLER COLUMN ACROSS THE FA SHOULD SEE MORE CONSISTENT MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FA AROUND 40 OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FA MONDAY FOR SUNSHINE.
FOR NOW HAVE SETTLED ON TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE FRONT LEFT QUADRANT OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLES WITH THE JET STREAK.
THEN A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. STILL EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SWINGS INLAND. WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE SMALLEST CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
143 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE A TROF PROGRESSES INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
COLD FRONT AS OF 08Z STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BACK INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE 00Z HIGH RES WRF-ARW MODEL.
654 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.
By tonight, a large upper trough skirting the US/Canada border will send a cold front approaching the area from the north. The highest probabilities for measurable precipitation will be located along and north of the Interstate 70 corridor overnight.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT AND ENERGY BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING FAIR CHANCES TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WILL BE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES OF NOTE. WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WITHIN A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. MEANING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOLER.
602 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CONTAINS THE HIGHEST MAGNITUDE OF MID AND UPPER WINDS. A SIMILAR DECELERATION IS OBSERVED SYMPTOMATIC IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM IN SITU AT THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF BAHIA HONDA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE NEAR 1025 MB CENTER OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT AROUND 86 WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S! SAW A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND WNW FLOW WILL STREAM SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED E OF THE LOCAL AREA.
The upper ridge that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern California. Morning lows Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas with clouds increasing over the area.
209 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.
The first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas.
403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
641 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST.
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. OUR CWA LIES ON THE NORTHERN MOST FRINGES OF A RIDGE ALOFT. WITH HIGHS A LITTLE BIT COOLER FOR MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST. STG MID LVL RIDGE XPCD DOWNSTREAM OF DVLPG WRN TROUGHING AND UPSTREAM OF SYS DVLPG OFF SE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY.
223 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY.
GENERAL IDEA IS TO HAVE RATHER LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. MY POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE EVEN COOLER READINGS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
TEMPS AT 1030 AM HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY 4 PM TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF STORMS NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKING BORDERLINE AT THIS POINT, BUT IN AN AREA OF CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PROVIDING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY BE SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE WARMER AND MORE BUOYANT AIR. A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN THE REGION OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO ERODE SHOWER CHANCES AT LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS PROVIDING A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW. /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY KEEPING A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE WRN GULF UP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. ONE MORE DRY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS FIRM. SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ALOFT MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL GIVE A PUSH TO THE RIDGE. WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS AND OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WITH UPPER TROF TRAVERSING SCNTRL CANADA. TROF IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH HIGH BUILDING THROUGH MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.
LOW PRESSURE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COAST EAST OF 95. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE FORMER BOUNDARY. AT LEAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND/AROUND 80 COAST.
/ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/ The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper trough moves ashore the CA coast. This trough will bring a chance of the storms to the region as it moves east.