Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
356 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 20Z water vapor imagery depicts broad mid-level troughing over the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada, which is working to flatten the ridge over the southwestern CONUS. Have dropped high temperatures to the mid to upper 80s across the CWA with cloud cover and rain likely to keep conditions cooler at least to start the day.
Upper trough axis will be just west of the mid state over the next 2 days.
120 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure firmly over lower Michigan with dry air in the low and mid-levels will help to suppress diurnal cloud formation this afternoon/evening. Currently the flow is fairly zonal but will become anticyclonically curves with heights slowly building today as energetic jet over western Canada starts carving out the next trough. The active portion of the trough won't make it to MI until later this coming weekend.
311 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Slightly cooler and drier air follows in the wake of a cold front for the remainder of the work week. High pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will allow for relatively dry and seasonable temperatures over the weekend.
RAP analysis of the low-level moisture transport convergence at 18Z is above the cold pool and fairly weak into central MN.
148 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Temperatures will be slightly cooler today behind a cold front. Most of the region will experience quiet weather through the end of the work week, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Northeast PA and the lower Catskills. Otherwise, dry and quiet conditions continue with high pressure building in. The period will be dry and seasonable as high pressure over SE Canada noses into the area and supresses moisture and afternoon convection to the south.
However, slight chance was still utilized diurnally in this area with a focus on chance and some likely PoPs, especially over the higher terrain. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 91 73 87 72 / 30 70 50 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 72 86 71 / 20 70 40 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 72 90 71 85 70 / 20 70 40 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 68 85 68 / 30 70 20 80 50.
316 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Things will evolve very slowly during the short term period, as a weak trof of low pressure aloft will very slowly to the east with time through the lower OH and TN Valley regions.
A leeward cyclone currently situated in western KS is slowly following upper level steering currents to the south and east.
So, high temperatures will be as warm, or even a degree or two warmer.
There is also a lee-of-the-Black Hills surface trof hanging out over the region, extending from the Black Hills east toward Huron and southeast toward Sioux City, Iowa. Some GSM output and hi-res CAM output supports a few thunderstorms trying to go up right on the boundary Thursday afternoon/evening while the mid-level thermal capping inversion is slowly eroded by falling heights aloft as the large western NOAM upper trof approaches the region.
338 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 (Issued 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020) Tonight and Thursday: Pleasant and dry weather today is brought to you by an area of high pressure barely moving eastward across the region. Tonight should remain mostly clear as high pressure dominates. Temps are expected to be a few degrees warmer than last night with lows dipping into the up 50s to low 60s. Southeasterly flow will begin to increase and bring warmer temps and dewpoints to southern WI with highs in the low to mid 80s.
204 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure at the surface and aloft stretches across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. There will be some minor fluctuations with the ridge axis location, but overall the synoptic pattern will remain the same through end of the week and into the weekend. The temps will run around average with daytime highs in the low 90's and overnight lows in the mid 70's.
The few Cu that managed to develop have been more suppressed than recent days thanks to even deeper subsidence aloft, and this theme will play out again on Thursday as ridging holds firm over the region.
250 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 W/SW upper flow has developed across the CWA, ahead of a trough crossing the Pac NW. More storms are expected Wednesday afternoon across the Black Hills and into northwest SD toward Thursday night as a cold front pushes through.
Tonight and Thursday Convective activity associated with a weak upper trough should continue to dissipate as it moves into drier air across central and northcentral Wisconsin.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the ridges and along a stationary boundary south of the Mason-Dixon line this afternoon/early evening.
Wednesday should be mainly dry as high pressure slowly builds to the south and westerly flow at mid and high levels strengthens. Low temperatures should be in the high 50s to low 60s over the plains, while the mountain valleys should see low 40s overnight. Upper level ridge slowly expands westward Thu/Fri before building northward over the wrn U. Weak wly flow across srn CO on the nrn periphery of the ridge should keep conditions hot and dry Thu and Fri, though a couple high based t-storms may develop near the NM border Fri afternoon as mid level moisture drifts northward into the region.
With high pressure in control and drier air at the surface, showers are not expected to develop today or tonight. VFR conditions will prevail today with high pressure remaining in control. A weak seabreeze may develop this morning, but dry air in the low levels will likely keep any showers from developing. /issued 350 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): 500mb high pressure remains centered over West Texas and will build to around 595dam today into Thursday. High pressure extends across much of the state with very dry mid-level northeasterly winds flowing across Deep South Texas. Highs should range from the mid to upper 90s in the Lower Rio Grande Valley to around 100 near Falcon Lake.
1133 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure extending westward toward the Carolinas from the central Atlantic will maintain light south winds along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak upper low off the SE coast currently firing a few TSTMs, may send outflow and marine showers our way, and will monitor progress in case an MWS is needed for waterspouts, but land impacts appear low this morning and this feature offshore is expected to remain offshore, a drift NE. Similar regime Thursday except we may see more convective intrusion onto the coast in the morning as the weak upper low offshore lifts a little closer, so a rainy start possible for the coast or Cape Fear region early Thursday, then new diurnal convection in afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Summer heat will be the main story for the short term as the mid level ridge remains centered over West Texas and the Desert Southwest, allowing subsidence to stay in control across the region. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average with minimum temperatures tonight and Thursday night in the upper 70s and highs tomorrow ranging from the mid 90s to the lower 100s west of I-69C.
717 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure will continue to persist across the Great Lakes region through Thursday.
935 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure will continue to persist across the Great Lakes region through Thursday.
929 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure will bring warm and mainly dry weather through Thursday.
Expect cooler highs tomorrow with more widespread cloud cover. The Remnant tropical low will move north and phase with a coastal trough of the California coast.
temperatures are are generally about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday early this afternoon. Upper level ridge over the desert southwest will gradually build westward by the end of the week.
Things will evolve very slowly during the short term period, as a weak trof of low pressure aloft will very slowly to the east with time through the lower OH and TN Valley regions.
The closed upper low over southern Illinois this afternoon will open up and drift east toward the Appalachians through Thursday. As of 200 pm Wednesday: A slow moving mid level trof will move across the Ohio Valley through this period.
20Z water vapor imagery depicts broad mid-level troughing over the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada, which is working to flatten the ridge over the southwestern CONUS. Have dropped high temperatures to the mid to upper 80s across the CWA with cloud cover and rain likely to keep conditions cooler at least to start the day.
TWH Although morning clouds kept temperatures down somewhat to start the day, afternoon sun, strong ridging and pre-frontal warming have allowed readings to climb into the 90s across the forecast area. In addition, humidities have dropped into the lower to middle teens with winds in the 15 to 25 mph range for most areas with some higher gusts along the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. A cold front will move across the forecast area mid to late evening allowing for a wind shift to the north.
A cold front will then move through the area Sun, with a small chance of precip, though will not be mentioned at this time in the worded forecast. Beyond this, Sun night through Wed, dry weather is expected with temps becoming cooler. Lower clouds will also develop around 14-15z, keeping the MVFR conditions across central Il into early afternoon due to the proximity to a weak upper level low in south central IL.
Radar shows a few showers/storms have initiated in the high terrain in the Allegheny Mountains of Tucker, Preston, and Garrett counties and in near vicinity of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Given lack of storm coverage, especially over the lower elevations, have reduced POPs across the southeast CWA.
717 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 VFR conditions persist this taf period as persistent high pressure maintains a dry low level environment. * None Persistence forecast in play today with the influence of high pressure and antecedent dry conditions (PW values between.
Expect VFR conditions across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Thurs morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. /issued 221 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Summer heat will be the main story for the short term as the mid level ridge remains centered over West Texas and the Desert Southwest, allowing subsidence to stay in control across the region. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average with minimum temperatures tonight and Thursday night in the upper 70s and highs tomorrow ranging from the mid 90s to the lower 100s west of I-69C.
330 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Although morning clouds kept temperatures down somewhat to start the day, afternoon sun, strong ridging and pre-frontal warming have allowed readings to climb into the 90s across the forecast area. In addition, humidities have dropped into the lower to middle teens with winds in the 15 to 25 mph range for most areas with some higher gusts along the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. A cold front will move across the forecast area mid to late evening allowing for a wind shift to the north.
/issued 242 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ An upper level high pressure/ridge is centered over New Mexico and extends over Texas. Temperatures for tomorrow will be slightly hotter than today across portions of the area as the upper ridge becomes stronger.
(previous) High pressure extending from the northeast into Florida will keep light winds tonight and Thu across the local Atlantic waters.
/Issued 235 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ Latest sfc analysis shows warm front extending from OK panhandle southeastward into north central TX with rather high dew points pooling to the north of the boundary. In the upper levels a compact wave can be seen moving slowly across southwest KS, and late tonight should see a strengthening low level jet interacting with warm front.
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA 404 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 General pattern has not changed, with the local area sitting on the western periphery of a western Atlantic ridge. Temperatures should top out mostly in the low 90s with a few places in the northeastern portion of the area possibly reaching the mid 90s.
531 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 W/SW upper flow has developed across the CWA, ahead of a trough crossing the Pac NW. More storms are expected Wednesday afternoon across the Black Hills and into northwest SD toward Thursday night as a cold front pushes through.
628 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Short term forecast still revolves around potential convection erupting along a trough in western Nebraska/eastern Colorado this afternoon/evening, and possibly drifting east into our CWA late this evening into the early overnight. However, we will have sufficient MUCAPE for convection in the 2000+ J/kg realm and it appears that the theta-e ridge axis may lay over our southwestern CWA into the overnight. Another scenario, which is perhaps looking more likely is that we may have some convection fire over eastern KS and possibly extending northwest near the theta-e ridge axis into our CWA. The best chance of anything approaching flooding would likely be in our southeast CWA toward north central Kansas where storms will not likely veer too far from the nearly stationary 850 mb theta-e ridge axis.
Moisture associated with an upper-level trough will maintain cirrus through the night.
819 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the week. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level trough will be to the west of the area Thursday with southwest flow continuing to bring moisture into the area.
High pressure was located across the area this afternoon as easterly winds continued to bring drier air into the area. WAA brings warmer more moist air to the area. Discussion: Upper level ridge moves into the area tonight. Underneath the ridge, a wave is expected to move across the area.
Given temperatures from yesterday along with some strengthening of the low- level thermal ridge, we will go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for today and tomorrow for counties along and east of the Interstate 35/Interstate 37 corridors. Exactly how efficient the low-level moisture can mix out will determine whether we hit criterion based on the heat index or air temperature.
142 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will continue to persist across the Great Lakes region through Thursday. Upper ridging will begin to gradually exit the region to the east on Friday.
Moisture associated with an upper-level trough will maintain cirrus through the overnight, which will likely prevent widespread fog development.
The mid to upper level ridge will remain over the southern Rockies today through Friday and extend eastward into central and southern Texas. Expect temperatures will be slightly warmer on Friday.
Hot and humid conditions will develop this afternoon with the highest head index values west of the convective debris influence, which at this time aligns with the diffuse sfc frontal zone which will also act to focus a corridor of mid to upper 70s dewpoints. This places the highest storm chances across far E OK and NW AR with sufficient instability and shear for a risk of svr weather.
140 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will control our weather into the weekend keeping us generally dry and temperatures near normal. High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly build into the region keeping the area dry and seasonable. S which leads to subsidence and ridging down from the north into NY and northern PA. There also was a projected elongated area of low pressure along the southeast U. As the day progresses, an upper level low over the Maritimes shifts eastward with the 12z runs of the GFS and NAM and CMC all lifting the confluence zone northward to some extent. As the upper low tracks east into the maritimes, the confluent zone on the NAM, GFS and CMC shifts east and strengthens over New England with stronger winds aloft.
A cold front is completing its passage through the area this evening. Sprinkles possible late this evening behind the cold front. Pacific cold front is currently moving rapidly east across our CWA. Mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler Thursday as the upper trough passes through.
313 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Fair weather conditions will continue today into tonight with highs in the 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.
325 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 315 AM CDT There are no short term forecast concerns thanks to expansive continental high pressure centered over Hudson Bay and extending into the Great Lakes. On Friday, the stagnant closed upper low over far southern Illinois/western Kentucky today will ease its way east-northeast bringing subtle mid-level cooling up to or near the southeast forecast area. Otherwise Friday should see highs realize a degree warmer than today.
A surface cold front is forecast to advance into western Nebraska as an upper trough moves across the Northern and Central Plains. Highs Friday from the upper 80s behind the front to the low to mid 90s south.
WPC continues to carry a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the MD and WV ridges where heavier rainfall with slow-moving storms will be possible this afternoon.
Today Through Friday Upper and mid level low pressure is pushing eastward, as showers and storms have just about dissipated across the state this afternoon. Upper level high pressure is expanding into the region from the WSW CONUS, keeping the state in an area of NW flow aloft. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s Wed, in the lower 90s Thurs and Fri. Lows will be in the lower 70s through the end of the week.
347 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 As has been the case for several days, upper ridging to our west near El Paso, with the Bermuda high to the east. That leaves us in weak upper troughing, which isn't really reflected at the surface. No indications that the upper troughing is going anywhere any time soon.
248 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The warming trend across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico continues today, as an upper ridge anchored to the west continues building eastward across the region. Temperatures today look to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations, yielding widespread Heat Advisory conditions across much of the area. Highs Friday will be similar to today, if not a degree warmer, with highs around 105-109F across lower elevations, 112-113F through portions of the Rio Grande Valley, and around 100F in the mountains. Thereafter, the ridge will shift westward, marking the beginning of a cooling trend this weekend.
The better chance for thunderstorms appears to arrive late Friday afternoon and evening with the arrival of stronger forcing along the main synoptic cold front. While the threat currently appears low, a non-zero tornado risk exists with some curvature in the low level hodographs.
319 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Latest sfc analysis was indicating that the ridge had retreated some more eastward acrs the GRT LKS, allowing southerly return flow and higher DPTs acrs western and central IA.
Partly cloudy skies will give way to more sunshine as high pressure builds into the region Thursday and Friday. Much warmer weather will arrive over the weekend as high pressure centered near the four corners expands into the Pacific Northwest.
Will be welcoming in a cooler airmass tonight that will keep temps from rising above normal the next several day. Thursday afternoon and evening into early Friday morning, as an upper-level trough moves farther east and southeast through the region, another round of thunderstorms is likely near and south of the Missouri River.
Anything west of the trough should remain under a robust mid-level cap. An upper-level trough and associated jet will swing through the Northern Plains tonight. Behind the departing complex of storms, high pressure will begin to build over the region Friday afternoon.
The closed upper low over southern Illinois this afternoon will open up and drift east toward the Appalachians through Thursday.
204 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the end of the week. Morning low temperature will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper trough remains off to the west of the region through the day, with the southwesterly flow bringing additional moisture into the region. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s once again. The upper trough will be a little closer producing additional forcing and even higher chances for thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near average in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows in the low 70s. High pressure will remain almost stationary in the Atlantic, continuing to deliver plenty of Gulf moisture to the region.
High pressure was located across the area this afternoon as easterly winds continued to bring drier air into the area. WAA brings warmer more moist air to the area. Discussion: Upper level ridge moves into the area tonight. Underneath the ridge, a wave is expected to move across the area. Dry conditions are expected Friday and Friday night, as ridge of high pressure from the Great Lakes stretches southwestward through the CWA with light southeast winds and somewhat lower dew points.
An upper low will continue to meander about over western KY/TN today, while weak low and upper level flow is in place locally. Temperature wise, highs should be in the low 90s in the south to the upper 80s in the north.
a cold front extends from northeastern Montana into northwestern Wyoming and eventually northern Nevada. Cold front forecast to sag down into the area towards morning Friday with winds shifting to the northeast behind the front.
1052 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2020 W/SW upper flow has developed across the CWA, ahead of a trough crossing the Pac NW.
404 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will continue to extend into the area today.
The low will keep the chance of convection going across portions of the CWA - primarily southeastern MO and southern IL.
VFR to prevail through the period, with mid-level high parked over New Mexico and surface ridging extending from the Bermuda high all the way to west Texas. Expect VFR conditions across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Thurs morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. /issued 221 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Summer heat will be the main story for the short term as the mid level ridge remains centered over West Texas and the Desert Southwest, allowing subsidence to stay in control across the region. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average with minimum temperatures tonight and Thursday night in the upper 70s and highs tomorrow ranging from the mid 90s to the lower 100s west of I-69C.
A frontal boundary will remain near the Ohio Valley through early weekend as an upper low pressure system drifts over central Indiana.
Some of the stratiform echoes has moved into the Highway 59 corridor, and could potentially ooze into Cherokee and Crawford counties at some point through the morning. The summertime high center shifts west into Arizona by this weekend, forcing a drier and cooler airmass into the Ozarks.
Highs could be a touch warmer than Thursday, with some locations approaching the upper 80s. Attention then turns to an approaching cold front.
/issued 242 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/ An upper level high pressure/ridge is centered over New Mexico and extends over Texas. Temperatures for tomorrow will be slightly hotter than today across portions of the area as the upper ridge becomes stronger. This same trend will continue into Friday with temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Afternoon highs will generally range from the low to mid 90s. Upper troughing moves into the Southeast CONUS Friday, leading to another uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms.