Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
539 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE ISOLD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SHORT LIVED TSTM STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE OVER NM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER TROF AT 23Z WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN FAR NW OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGH MOVING OVER AND JUST NORTH OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
628 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24HRS AS MORE CIRRUS SPILLS EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWV TROUGH. WINDS VEER TO NW BEHIND SFC REFLECTION OF TROUGH DURING THE AFTN TUE WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 15KT FOR A SHORT WHILE. /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/ BENIGN AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT TO WEST-NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE NEXT MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF SHARPER UPPER TROUGH PASSING OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. RMCQUEEN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. GUSTY MID-MORNING WINDS WILL EASE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
1022 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY.
700 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015 COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW PATTERN WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
/ISSUED 402 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND RESULTANT RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST COUPLE. PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
1043 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1245 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY.
1120 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Scattered rain showers continued across Central and Southern Arkansas this evening as an upper level low remained over Southern Louisiana and the Gulf Coast. the upper low along the Gulf Coast should begin to lift northward as the wave out west shifts eastward. have tweaked lows over the west and let the lows over Northwest Arkansas ride as is for now to account for these conditions.
A SURFACE CYCLONE POSITIONED THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW RESULTED IN MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OVER NORTH MS THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AS IT CONSOLIDATES INTO CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MIDLEVEL TROF WILL EXIT TUESDAY EVENING.
AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR CYCLONE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BROAD UPR TROF IS FCST TO DIG ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS ON TUE AND TURN THE MEAN FLOW TO THE SW INTO WI.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG.
1146 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT.
1147 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015 A pleasant Autumn day is underway across the region this afternoon, with temperatures at 2 PM ranging from the low 60s north to upper 60s south. A cold front will then push through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing an end to the precipitation across the region. Clearing is expected by Wednesday afternoon as breezy northwest winds usher in much drier and cooler air. Frost/freeze potential will need to be watched Wednesday night, with lows approaching freezing along the Iowa and Nebraska borders.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED THIS WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BEHIND IT. THIS SENDS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C.
755 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 A WEDGE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE CSRA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE OVER E ND. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 3-6C. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE N PLAINS WED NIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLDER AND BREEZY/WINDY AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES INTO MN. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOWS STILL AROUND 40 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. AN EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER N/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SHARP NWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH.
DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND BRINGING UP MOISTURE INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
STRONG 850MB WINDS TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE STACKED UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW FILLING AND MOVING OUT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST.
829 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SLIGHT BACKING OF MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH REGARDS TO FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A NARROW BAND OF POSSIBLE CLEARING AND INCREASE IN INSTABILITY TIMED OUT FOR EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
1032 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 A WEDGE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE CSRA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
838 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 A WEDGE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE CSRA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COASTAL TROUGH THE MOVED INLAND IS NOW A ZONAL STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NORTH WITH COLD AIR DAMMING.
ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER BAFFIN ISLAND. HAS SENT A COMPLEX SPLIT TROUGH INTO THE LOCAL REGION FOR THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WHICH BEGAN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CENTER SETTLES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS COOLER AIR WILL BE DRIER. BUT AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. MUCH COOLER AIR IS CHANNELED INTO NEMONT. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A NARROW BUT AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE DIVIDE.
608 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 More showery conditions are expected overnight across parts of the Inland Northwest before drier and more stable conditions set up for Tuesday with a brief period of high pressure.
724 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL BE SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES. PATRICIA'S REMNANTS WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED TOWARD SAID RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FRIES REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WILL BE QUICKLY USHERED NORTHWARD AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIVES SOUTHWARD. WITH THE HIGHEST QPF OVER OUR FAR WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND RIDGE ZONES. 50 INCHES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MUCH LESS QPF OVER WESTERN PA AND THE NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS WITH A TROUGH PASSAGES LATER TONIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS CYCLE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES AND SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT KDHT AROUND 08Z AND THROUGH KAMA BY 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL SLOWLY RETURN BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PANHANDLES AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. /ISSUED 402 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND RESULTANT RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST COUPLE. PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL.
621 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015 A pleasant Autumn day is underway across the region this afternoon, with temperatures at 2 PM ranging from the low 60s north to upper 60s south. A cold front will then push through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing an end to the precipitation across the region. Clearing is expected by Wednesday afternoon as breezy northwest winds usher in much drier and cooler air. Frost/freeze potential will need to be watched Wednesday night, with lows approaching freezing along the Iowa and Nebraska borders.
748 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SFC/UPPER LOW OVER PORTIONS OF ERN LA/SRN MS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NE OVERNIGHT. S-SE WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND THAT COUPLED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 3-5 DEG OR MORE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS WITH THE NAM BEING THE COOLER GUIDANCE. 850MB WINDS ON BOTH NAM/GFS ARE 50-60 KT WITH THIS JET BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR ON SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A STRONG CAP BELOW 850MB KEEPING THE HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IN TERMS OF PRECIP WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.
This very slow northward progression will likely continue for several more hours, until passage of mid level ridge should allow for a more rapid northward development due to increasing UVV. SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Moisture from the remnants of Patricia will begin interacting with an approaching longwave trof tonight. Guidance indicates good isentropic lift and low level moisture convergence developing over the area ahead of the trof as moisture streams up into the Mississippi Valley.
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGH MOVING OVER AND JUST NORTH OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE WEST. BUT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AS THEY SWITCH FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHEN THE LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE FORECAST AREA.
1230 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE RIDGES WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL PHASE WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Moisture from the remnants of Patricia will begin interacting with an approaching longwave trof tonight. Guidance indicates good isentropic lift and low level moisture convergence developing over the area ahead of the trof as moisture streams up into the Mississippi Valley.
FAIR WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NW WINDS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED WITH COOLER TEMPS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RESPECTABLE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH /MAINLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/ AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ID PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW IN EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP S-SE AND CLIP THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING FOR ISOLATED VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SE OREGON/SW IDAHO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SE OREGON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NW WINDS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED WITH COOLER TEMPS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
405 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN.
645 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING TROUGH. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TRY TO WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FORM OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY AFTN.
520 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING TROUGH. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TRY TO WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FORM OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY AFTN.
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT TODAY. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
355 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEY ALL DEPICT A BROAD AND RATHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH SLOW MOVING BATCHES OF ENERGY CAUGHT OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM TOWARDS DAWN WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT LIKELY SETTING UP. SUNDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH MORE CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER.
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST HAS BROUGHT LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH MODERATE WIND GUSTS BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN KERN COUNTY. 12Z WRF IS INDICATING A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLOW AS DIURNAL HEATING ERODES THE SHALLOW AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BILOXI MS.
117 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. THIN MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EACH DAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
As upper level ridge of high pressure extends from the Desert Southwest northeast through the Central Plains and into Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, two upper level long wave troughs are present with one entering the Pacific Northwest and the other entering the eastern United States. At the surface, a ridge axis of high pressure extends from central Nebraska into southeastern Colorado. Winds become light and variable overnight as the ridge axis slides through the area. Southerly winds return by sunrise tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows overnight look to fall to around 60 degrees with highs tomorrow reaching into the lower 90s.
347 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Elongated upper trough axis is currently stretched this afternoon from the Great Lakes region, southwest towards eastern OK. Towards the sfc, the 850 mb front and closed low are centering over the CWA this afternoon with shallow, yet persistent stratus that has been unable to overcome the strong inversion seen earlier this morning. Lows tonight fall to the lower 60s. On Sunday, 850 mb low shifts southward in response to incoming trough builds into western KS. Temps therefore are in question, like today, where highs may only reach the low or mid 80s for eastern areas. Upper ridging will spread east with time during the Sun night through Tues period with sfc-850mb response expected to be a gradual southeast to south flow re-establishing.
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WWD. BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA. NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA. IN ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY. EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S.
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ON SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES AS A DISJOINTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WEAKEN ESE INTO THE LOWER LAKES. SUPPORT ALOFT INITIALLY WILL COME FROM WEAK UPPER JET SUPPORT (RRQ OF A 80 KT NORTHERN LAKES 300-200 MB JET) AND MID LEVEL UVM/MOISTURE ADVECTION SURGE TIED TO AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX OUTRUNNING TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE AFD FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE HAD MOVED LITTLE AND STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF AR.
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 TROUGH W. RIDGE E. THE 500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT TODAY. MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper low situated on the central Gulf Coast.
155 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS.
123 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH. ALSO BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME FORCING AND LIFT WITH THE UL SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY.
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.