Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Bad news is that some patchy freezing drizzle continues from the I-44 corridor southward this afternoon. This light freezing drizzle should end from NW to SE with time tonight, with the best potential for icing from freezing rain across far southeast Oklahoma.
These showers are the product of what seems like density gradient that slid south off the cooler waters to our north overnight and collided with southeasterlies coming over the Florida Straits. This is thanks to the presence of a low level ridge parked off the east coast of FL and just north of the Bahamas. This combined with deep layer ridging will suppress chances for showers across much of the area. With that said, we will continue to see low level flow from the southeast to south winds through the next several days thanks to the ridge axis remaining park just to our north. As the ridge axis lifts northward tonight and the Bermuda High strengthens, expect a surge to occur, strongest over the Florida Straits tonight.
Expect clouds to stick around today and generally be in the high MVFR or low VFR for ceiling heights. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 48 54 41 51 / 0 50 90 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 44 48 38 47 / 0 50 90 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 41 48 36 47 / 10 70 90 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 40 46 38 47 / 10 60 90 70 10.
Locations along and south of the I-94 corridor still stand the chance to see some light snow out of this being closer to the lower levels of the frontal circulation with just a bit better moisture quality. The frontal circulation will slide southeast tonight with mid level ridging expanding across the area late tonight into Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) Impacts from freezing rain and freezing drizzle continue mainly along and southeast of I-44.
Afternoon temperatures this low, particularly in our northern Oklahoma and Arkansas zones, raises the potential for issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for those zones for tonight as surface temperatures fall to near or below freezing with increasing precipitation chances.
1025 AM MST Wed Feb 10 2021 Upper low remains parked over Manitoba/Ontario, keeping a cold airmass over the northern tier of the CONUS. With cold high pressure over the Dakotas, winds are generally northerly 5-10 mph.
Low level moisture remains trapped with the shallow cold air, with cold airmass associated this atmosphere actually cold enough to produce saturation in the snow growth region, even in the lower reaches of the atmosphere (ie, just off the surface).
255 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Freezing rain, sleet, and freezing drizzle continues along and south of a line from Branson to Eminence this afternoon. Elsewhere, flurries and occasionally very light drizzle persist given the cold, moist airmass in the low levels.
222 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Current surface analysis places ridge along the lee side of the northern and Canadian Rockies, stretching into the plains/upper midwest.
Persistent high pressure moving into the area will allow cold temperatures to persist for a few more days.
353 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 The pattern across the CONUS remains unchanged with the upper low spinning over central Canada and high pressure dominating the middle of the country.
Meanwhile, a mix of snow and freezing rain is possible south of I-70 through this evening.
Weak high pressure will build in on Thursday, bringing slightly warmer temperatures.
503 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Warm front currently lifting north through the area with showers and a few thunderstorms across the northern portions of the forecast area.
High pressure returns on Thursday above normal afternoon temperatures.
654 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 A low pressure system passing east through Ohio has been producing some light snow across the Detroit Metro area this evening. Locations along and south of the I-94 corridor still stand the chance to see some light snow out of this being closer to the lower levels of the frontal circulation with just a bit better moisture quality. The frontal circulation will slide southeast tonight with mid level ridging expanding across the area late tonight into Thursday.
Current surface analysis places ridge along the lee side of the northern and Canadian Rockies, stretching into the plains/upper midwest.
A trough looks to provide enough forcing to spark some very light snow through the period for the southern half of Minnesota into western Wisconsin beginning late Thursday morning, but accumulations will be minimal.
Although it will be another cold night tonight with lows in the single digits below and above zero, winds will also be fairly light and so we remain warmer than wind chill advisory criteria.
/issued 503 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021/ Warm front currently lifting north through the area with showers and a few thunderstorms across the northern portions of the forecast area.
S/SE flow will continue resulting in above normal temperatures, peaking in the low to mid 80s. Rain chances will be a little higher as a slug of moisture is poised to lift north across the area on the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. Favorable boating conditions as Atlantic high pressure keeps S/SE winds 10-15 across the local waters.
The pattern across the CONUS remains unchanged with the upper low spinning over central Canada and high pressure dominating the middle of the country.
Temperatures range from right at freezing across Stewart county to the mid 60s far south. No reports of any ice accumulation yet although freezing rain will begin to occur across the Stewart county area in the next couple of hours. The intrusion of subfreezing surface air will cause a changeover to freezing rain at CKV beginning around 03Z. The changeover to freezing rain is not expected at this time at BNA.
302 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Very cold conditions with dangerously low wind chills remain the highlight of impactful weather today, tonight, and beyond. The typical cold spots of northeast ND and northwest MN should fall into the minus 30s given the lighter winds and their recent trends to beat the lower guidance.
230 PM PST Wed Feb 10 2021 Pattern change to unsettled and cooler starting tomorrow. Clouds will continue to build into the region during the morning as a short wave trough approaches NorCal from the northwest. The heaviest precip it expected during the evening and overnight as a cold front pushes through along with the trough axis. Ensembles are in good agreement with the placement and timing of the trough and front but there is a quite a spread in the QPF between members leading to some uncertainty in the rain/snow totals. As for snow it is looking like 6-12" above 6000 feet with localized amounts up to 16" over some of the higher peaks.
High pressure is centered to the north of the region. A broad trough covers Canada and the northern half of the US.
305 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Quite a bit of sunshine across the region today, but that will change tonight/Thursday as the first of several weak waves slides east through the base of an upper level low which remains nearly stationary over southern Manitoba for the next several days. Have leaned toward the lower end of SLR guidance, generally 13-15:1, as thermal profiles over much of the CWA through Thursday are colder than the DGZ which should limit aggregate snow growth. By the time the wave exits to the east late in the day Thursday, looking for amounts less than an inch in most areas, perhaps pushing that level through parts of the Missouri River Valley where SLR are higher due to slightly warmer profiles which drift into the DGZ at times.
Very cold conditions with dangerously low wind chills remain the highlight of impactful weather today, tonight, and beyond. The typical cold spots of northeast ND and northwest MN should fall into the minus 30s given the lighter winds and their recent trends to beat the lower guidance.
Freezing rain, sleet, and freezing drizzle continues along and south of a line from Branson to Eminence this afternoon. Elsewhere, flurries and occasionally very light drizzle persist given the cold, moist airmass in the low levels.
511 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Impacts from freezing rain and freezing drizzle continue mainly along and southeast of I-44.
The highest POPs will be near 60 percent across far northern NE with chance POPs extending south to Highway 2. A deep upper low will continue to rotate over southern Manitoba Thursday night.
The mountain ridges may see another couple inches of snow but lower elevations should just see flurries. The decent flow aloft will also allow for gusts to reach up to 50 mph across the mountain ridges tonight with blowing snow possible over some of the mountain passes. A jet streak will move across far northern Colorado during the late afternoon which may provide some lift for snow showers to begin across the Cheyenne Ridge.
Freezing drizzle is finally beginning to wind down across the area this evening, especially across northeastern Oklahoma, thanks to some low level dry air filtering in. Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue overnight with some sleet/snow flurries mixing in as well across southeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas and an Advisory continues there into tomorrow morning. Generally less than a tenth of an inch of additional ice accumulation is expected tonight, with some isolated locally higher amounts possible across the higher terrain of southeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
552 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Very cold conditions with dangerously low wind chills remain the highlight of impactful weather today, tonight, and beyond. The typical cold spots of northeast ND and northwest MN should fall into the minus 30s given the lighter winds and their recent trends to beat the lower guidance.
As a result, temperatures as of 2:30 PM have struggled to reach freezing. Freezing fog/drizzle have slowly decreased in coverage across the area; however, freezing fog/drizzle are still occurring over the eastern South Plains and western Rolling Plains. Freezing fog/drizzle will continue to decrease into this evening. The ascent from the jet, along with moist isentropic ascent, will result in the formation of freezing fog and drizzle once again tonight into tomorrow. This freezing fog and drizzle will result in icy road surfaces for the drive into work tomorrow morning. Freezing fog and drizzle will decrease in coverage from west to east and should be out of the area by early afternoon. Kendrick An upper level low pressure core should drift westward and be situated across Manitoba by Thursday evening.
510 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Quite a bit of sunshine across the region today, but that will change tonight/Thursday as the first of several weak waves slides east through the base of an upper level low which remains nearly stationary over southern Manitoba for the next several days. Have leaned toward the lower end of SLR guidance, generally 13-15:1, as thermal profiles over much of the CWA through Thursday are colder than the DGZ which should limit aggregate snow growth. By the time the wave exits to the east late in the day Thursday, looking for amounts less than an inch in most areas, perhaps pushing that level through parts of the Missouri River Valley where SLR are higher due to slightly warmer profiles which drift into the DGZ at times.
Overrunning was being assisted by the right entrance region of an upper level jet to produce a large area of precip which was starting to creep southeastward into the forecast area-- likely a mixture of freezing rain and sleet. The southern edge of the forecast area probably will not see temperatures get down to freezing during the event, and only rain is forecast there.
253 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 Rain will increase in coverage as a cold front slides east this morning. 5 and 1 inch of rainfall with the highest amounts farther south. As the cold front moves further east across the CWA tonight, showers and storms will gradually end from west to east after sunset. Postfrontal CAA drops temperatures quickly overnight with morning lows around or just above freezing.
There was also an upper trough propagating east over northern Mexico and a third wave slowly moving towards the Pacific Northwest. Surface obs continue to show the dominant high pressure across the northern plains riding south into central TX. But there is also some slightly dryer air in low levels as indicated by the higher ceilings.
High pressure on Thursday will lead to above normal afternoon temperatures.
1047 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 Quite a bit of sunshine across the region today, but that will change tonight/Thursday as the first of several weak waves slides east through the base of an upper level low which remains nearly stationary over southern Manitoba for the next several days. Have leaned toward the lower end of SLR guidance, generally 13-15:1, as thermal profiles over much of the CWA through Thursday are colder than the DGZ which should limit aggregate snow growth. By the time the wave exits to the east late in the day Thursday, looking for amounts less than an inch in most areas, perhaps pushing that level through parts of the Missouri River Valley where SLR are higher due to slightly warmer profiles which drift into the DGZ at times.
After 12Z, cold advection will start to drop surface temps near the KY border, bringing a potential for freezing rain, mostly in Wise County VA. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 41 51 42 47 / 90 40 20 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 39 47 39 44 / 90 50 10 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 46 36 48 38 44 / 90 30 10 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 38 48 37 45 / 90 50 10 50 70 TN.
(Today and tonight) The mechanism for freezing drizzle north of the cold front has shifted south of the Red River with only scattered freezing rain showers moving over southeastern Oklahoma.
Heavier convective freezing rain showers moved through the Memphis metro in the early evening. Soundings show a sub-freezing layer at the surface with a pronounced warm nose overhead. This will indicate freezing rain over the area, rather than snow. Amounts look lighter and more uncertain farther south and east with impacts primarily being slick spots on bridges and overpasses.
1102 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Impacts from freezing rain and freezing drizzle continue mainly along and southeast of I-44.
Otherwise, the east-southeasterly low-level flow will continue to reinforce the warm and muggy air mass, with another afternoon of temperatures reaching the lower 80s. The Keys will remain to the south of an Atlantic ridge extending across Florida through Thursday.
Temperatures range from right at freezing across Stewart county to the mid 60s far south. No reports of any ice accumulation yet although freezing rain will begin to occur across the Stewart county area in the next couple of hours. The intrusion of subfreezing surface air has caused a changeover to freezing rain at CKV beginning back around 03Z. The changeover to freezing rain is not expected at this time at BNA until after 15Z-18Z Thursday.
1201 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 VFR conditions through the forecast as high pressure builds overhead and dry air in the lower levels helps scour out the lingering cloud field. Locations along and south of the I-94 corridor still stand the chance to see some light snow out of this being closer to the lower levels of the frontal circulation with just a bit better moisture quality. The frontal circulation will slide southeast tonight with mid level ridging expanding across the area late tonight into Thursday.
Heading towards the overnight, an upper level Low pressure system will track east through southern Canada, with brushing vort max waves sliding through the northern Plains east to the lower Great Lakes. Temperatures again tonight drop back to the low single digits across much of the area, with mid teens forecast in southeast Illinois.
It seems that there would be a good chance freezing rain could be occurring or will soon across far northern Scott County as of 930 this morning. Furthermore, see no changes needed for Wise County as light precipitation is currently moving through the area with temperatures likely near or below freezing there. A sharp front will continue to slowly sag south as Arctic high pressure digs into the Midwest through the afternoon. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 41 49 41 47 / 90 40 20 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 37 45 39 44 / 90 50 10 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 46 36 46 38 43 / 90 30 10 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 37 46 38 45 / 90 50 10 60 80 TN.
Over the weekend the global models are still depicting the development of an area of low pressure over the southern gulf that moves northeast along the frontal boundary bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the forecast area.
600 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 (Today and tonight) The mechanism for freezing drizzle north of the cold front has shifted south of the Red River with only scattered freezing rain showers moving over southeastern Oklahoma. HRRR temperatures were used for this morning as they more closely reflect the lower readings than the NBM gave. In the meantime, a bit of sun is possible in western Oklahoma with the lowest clouds gone there and scattered clouds over western Kansas this morning.
Drier low level air working in from both the northeast and the west later today should eliminate much of the stratus, but an easterly component to the low level flow will keep the cold air mass in place. This will make forecast high temperatures tricky once again today, but signals point to the low/cold end of guidance, if not a little below that, being the most likely outcome this afternoon. An upper trough moving across northern Mexico will pass to our south and east tomorrow and will do little to affect the pattern across the South Plains region.
Given the high temperatures and dew points near 60 afternoon SBCAPE climb up to 1000J/Kg with some decent surface sheer. The lower level lapse rates are limited by a warm nose as forecast soundings show and given the systems parallel traverse to the upper level flow, lifting mechanisms will be locally isolated. For Friday rain begins as chance in the morning before gradually increasing by the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. SW upper level flow will keep the lower and mid layers fueled with an abundance of moisture for the front to work with and as a result some areas could see up to 2 inches of rain Friday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
(Today and tonight) The mechanism for freezing drizzle north of the cold front has shifted south of the Red River with only scattered freezing rain showers moving over southeastern Oklahoma. HRRR temperatures were used for this morning as they more closely reflect the lower readings than the NBM gave. In the meantime, a bit of sun is possible in western Oklahoma with the lowest clouds gone there and scattered clouds over western Kansas this morning.
Do expect to see those along and northeast of the Buffalo Ridge fall into advisory criteria, however, after collaboration with neighbors, have decided to hold off on issuing any further wind chill headlines until the current one expires. However, there continues to be a bit of uncertainty concerning how far north the snow will advance into the dry arctic high pressure ridge centered over the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Skies should start out sunny this morning with increasing middle and high clouds in the afternoon as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching upper trough.
500 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 Another warm, muggy February morning across the Florida Keys with temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points in the lower 70s. This has led to some iscentropic upglide with the warmer waters of the Florida Straits providing additional latent heat flux for rising air parcels. Temps will peak in the lower 80s again today as skies become mostly sunny. Expect a near repeat of shower coverage again tonight with CAMs depicting isolated to widely scattered showers developing over the Straits and spreading north into the Keys, mainly over the Lower and Middle Keys.
346 AM MST Thu Feb 11 2021 A cold front moved through the area yesterday and brought in even colder air to the region. Strong high pressure, around 1050 mb, over Alberta will keep the cold air coming into this weekend.
The higher ratios will help contribute to snow totals of 1 to 2 inches, with not a lot of moisture expected given how cold it is.
The longwave pattern becomes more meridional heading into the weekend with flow aloft becoming more northwesterly as upper troughing deepens to the west.
A quick moving wave is currently pushing through the Northern and Central Plains along the southern periphery of a deep upper low centered over central Canada. At the surface, high pressure is situated to our northwest across northern MT/southern Alberta with arctic air firmly entrenched over the area.
A cold front is slowly pushing south and east across the area this morning. An Arctic air mass is spilling to the gulf coast as high pressure builds south through the plains. Any issue with freezing rain is expected to remain north of a Toledo Bend Dam to Alexandria line.
High pressure today will lead to above normal afternoon temperatures. A low pressure system will bring a chance of light rain and high elevation snow showers Friday.
518 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 An upper trough is beginning to move over the region with cold temperatures in place. Temperatures are mostly in the 20s and 30s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light fog across portions of the area. A Winter Weather Advisory and a Freezing Fog Advisory are in effect until noon CST/11 am MST this morning. Temperatures today will range from the lower 30s/upper 20s across the eastern Permian Basin to the 70s across portions of the Rio Grande. Temperatures across most of the Permian Basin and Lea County will be at or below freezing on Friday. Increased precipitation chances are expected beginning Friday night as an upper trough/low moves over the area.
Arctic air will continue to extend southward into Tennessee as a series of disturbances rotate around the large scale upper level trough. Early this morning, temperatures had dropped to freezing in our northwest counties, generally west of I-65 and north of I-40. Through the next several hours, the freezing line will gradually ooze southeastward as precipitation continues to expand across the Mid State. By 10 AM CST, the freezing line is expected to run from Hohenwald, up to Nashville, over to Hartsville, Livingston and Jamestown. For areas with above freezing temps today, expect on and off rain showers through the day, tapering off in the late afternoon. Some travel impacts may linger or develop tonight area wide with the possibility for light freezing drizzle and maybe a few areas of freezing fog.
A ridge of high pressure will build in the Upper Midwest, keeping a cold and dry northerly flow over the Ohio Valley through the weekend. Cloud cover will linger tonight as a ridge of high pressure begins to nose into the region from the northwest. Cold air on a continued north flow will see lows drop to the lower teens in the northwest and near 20 in the southeast. The dry air and northerly flow will remain through Friday, with highs slightly warmer - mid 20s in the northwest to lower 30s in the east and south.
Dew points running a bit high in the low 40s across the SJ Valley, so think some patchy fog will be probable this morning in the fog prone areas of the valley.
A ridge of high pressure will build in the Upper Midwest, keeping a cold and dry northerly flow over the Ohio Valley through the weekend. East of the high, a band of light snow has been observed this morning across the I-70 corridor. Forecast highs remain below freezing across the Ohio Valley today as northerly flow continues to advect cold air into the region. Cloud cover will linger tonight as a ridge of high pressure begins to nose into the region from the northwest. Cold air on a continued north flow will see lows drop to the lower teens in the northwest and near 20 in the southeast. The dry air and northerly flow will remain through Friday, with highs slightly warmer - mid 20s in the northwest to lower 30s in the east and south.