Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
547 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
636 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE ON HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ALONG THE OH RIVER AND AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS ALL OF KENTUCKY. THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE AND WITH MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. WEAK GRADIENT AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEW POINT RECOVERY TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY SOME OF THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
136 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
320 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015 An upper level ridge currently over portions of the southern plains will cause a nice tranquil northwest flow. Wind will slowly shift from a northerly direction to a more southerly and southwesterly direction by tomorrow as a return flow sets up on the backside of the high. As the ridge aloft moves overhead, surface temps Wednesday are expected to warm. The middle of the week will see a continuation of the seasonable weather for the region as the upper pattern transitions from northwesterly flow aloft to short wave ridging.
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL TREND MORE ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
323 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. BROAD RIDGE WEST. WITH RIDGE CENTER OVR GREAT BASIN AND COL STILL SITTING OFFSHORE SRN CALIFORNIA. SFC HAS WEAK AND WEAKENING HIGH P OVR WY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL MT. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WHILE LOWER P BUILDS IN AT THE SFC ACROSS CNTRL WY AND AND UPR LVL RIDGING CONTINUES OVR THE FA. WEAK FORCING WITH CONVERGENCE WITHIN BUILDING LOW PRESSURE AND OVR MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
322 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HIGH A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS QUIET THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
321 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015 19Z water vapor shows a closed low off the CA coast with a ridge of high pressure extending from Mexico north into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure was set up over the southern plains and southern MS river valley as a cold front moves south through the Dakotas. There are some signs from the models of isentropic lift and theta-e advection along the nose of the low level jet which sets up along the middle MO river valley. Models show the thermal ridge remaining over the area through Wednesday. With decent insolation and reasonable mixing, highs Wednesday should once again make the lower to middle 90s.
A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (50-55 PERCENT) ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO EXTEND/BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE FL PENINSULA/BAHAMAS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE RAP RUNS YESTERDAY MORNING WERE REALLY GOOD WITH THE HIGHS. WENT WITH THAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH RESULTED IN WARMER HIGHS FOR TODAY. KRC TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AS THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA COME ON SHORE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA.
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REACHING QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
536 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015 An upper level ridge currently over portions of the southern plains will cause a nice tranquil northwest flow. Wind will slowly shift from a northerly direction to a more southerly and southwesterly direction by tomorrow as a return flow sets up on the backside of the high. As the ridge aloft moves overhead, surface temps Wednesday are expected to warm. The middle of the week will see a continuation of the seasonable weather for the region as the upper pattern transitions from northwesterly flow aloft to short wave ridging.
1133 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO GAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IR SATELLITE SHOWING SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO 850-700MB ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT ALONG THE US/MT/ND BORDER.
344 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL IOWA. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
248 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015 THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LOW NOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
AS COLD FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE MET INDICATING AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. MAV IS A LITTLE COOLER.
Overnight, temperatures will be slow to cool in the valleys, and mid-slopes and ridges will remain relatively warm, leading to low humidities, especially in Northwest Montana.
H5 RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
147 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 THE AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COASTS AND SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE.
635 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT - A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U. ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A TROUGH REACHED FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC TRAILED A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THEN WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT AN EARLY START WED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL BUT RAIN AND CLOUDS WED WILL KEEP THE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL.
/ISSUED 904 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/ TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES SHOW 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE CLEAR SKIES YESTERDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS LOOK COOLER TONIGHT WITH THE PRIME RADIATING SETUP. BUT TEMPS WED LOOK WARMER.
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ONSHORE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND PERSISTENT, WEAK Q-G FORCING FROM A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
THE CAVEAT IS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN MI WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO SE MI. TODAY AND TONIGHT DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA. MODEST DEFORMATION AND FGEN FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SNEAKY LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AREAS/HEAT ISLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN. VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING LIFTS INTO SW WYOMING THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEP ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN ON TUESDAY. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER.
147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of west Texas through this evening, if not overnight as a plume of mid and upper level moisture continues to spread over the region around/under a somewhat weakened ua ridge. Morning showers and storms over the Permian basin have waned, but another round of convection has begun to develop over the higher terrain of west Texas under the said plume of moisture, and expect the same over SE NM in the next few hours. Expect this higher mid level theta e air to push southward Tuesday, so will continue the trend of higher PoPs over the southern half or so of the CWA then.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING CONGESTED CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CASCADES. RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE IN THESE AREAS OF ABOUT 500-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SISKIYOU/MARBLE MOUNTAINS.
329 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.
144 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.
332 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF HUDSON BAY.
330 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
450 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
138 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN US NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER MN AND WI. WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER. WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC.
333 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 THE NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON THE WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND HELP IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THEREAFTER THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO PRESS EASTWARD WHICH WILL PUSH PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND UPWARD.
421 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
A SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB.
502 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 229 PM CDT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
444 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 229 PM CDT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK TO BRING HOT INLAND WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND MORE COASTAL CLOUDS LATER THIS WEEK.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN FIRES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED. AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
Tuesday will be cooler with western Montana areas returning to more seasonal temperatures (the first seasonal-temperature day in about a week).
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
229 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 229 PM CDT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. KMD 253 AM CDT THE MAIN UPPER LOW.
340 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINING FROM SASKATCHEWAN. LARGE CLOSED OFF CYCLONE CONTINUED ACRS THE JAMES BAY REGION. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY COMPLEX TRYING TO UNDERCUT UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE. AREAS AWAY FROM THE THICKER CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN FOR HIGHS. AND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY.
347 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 STALLED SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER THEN NW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WHICH ARE COOLER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
243 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TRYING TO PUNCH THROUGH THE RIDGE THAT IS OTHERWISE PREVAILING ALONG THE ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MODELS MANAGE TO SLIP A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY THROUGH THE RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
240 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015 AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVR CO THRU THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD BEHIND THIS UPR TROF. MUCH OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROF WL LIKELY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AN UPR RIDGE WL THEN BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. ALONG WITH 80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
558 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TO SAG TOWARD THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
344 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
311 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND INTO WYOMING. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM IT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
214 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 733 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/ PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SSE- SSW SURFACE WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND 15-17Z. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
259 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING.
329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 229 PM CDT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ THE NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON THE WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND HELP IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THEREAFTER THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO PRESS EASTWARD WHICH WILL PUSH PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND UPWARD.
325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER.
255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
200 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015 UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR WITH QG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR AREA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE TROUGH AXIS PASS BY UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS AREA.
The large mid/upper eastern CONUS trough will remain in place through tonight. At the surface, broad low pressure covers north Florida and south Georgia with a stationary boundary draped through the Panhandle and southeast Alabama.
SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS.
WITH THE LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER UINTA AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES.
316 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
429 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.