Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
422 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure will cross the region early tonight accompanied by showers and isolated thunder. Colder air arriving behind the low overnight will change rain to snow in the higher terrain of northern New Hampshire and the western Maine mountains.
High pressure was building into the area and leading to winds slackening through the day. Cloud shield associated with this and the high pressure will drive the short term weather. With high pressure building, short term looks to be quiet with the exception of a frost risk in the far north. There even may be some places in those counties that get to freezing tonight. Otherwise, some filtered sun and slightly warmer yet still below average temps for Tuesday.
A trailing dry cold front will sag south into our area by this evening but will only bring some lower dewpoints to areas north of I-4 with no cool down or precipitation chances. This will make tonight feel more comfortable, however, as lower dewpoints means the ability for cooler low temps due to efficient radiational cooling.
Increasing chances for precipitation come on Tuesday as an upper trough approaches the area. Nonetheless, recent guidance has been a bit slower in depicting the trough's progression and as a result the onset of showers and thunderstorms will likely not occur until the afternoon hours.
These two factors bring a threat of freezing temperatures, with forecast lows around 31 to 32 degrees. Temperatures quickly rise above freezing after sunrise. However, an upper-level ridge will begin moving eastward over the Plains by the evening hours.
Expect lows in the lower to mid 20s with a few teens in NW MN. High pressure will be over northwestern Minnesota Tuesday giving a light wind day. Dew point temperatures will be a tad higher, but with the higher temperatures, expect another day of low relative humidity values in the upper teens and 20s. Low pressure will track from the northern high plains into eastern Manitoba during this time frame. Near critical fire weather conditions will remain across the area due to the low humidity and fuels.
A broad trough over the eastern states will continue to move east and into the western Atlantic by this evening. Despite the low RHs, the wind criteria will not be met for a Fire Wx Watch.
229 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020 (Tonight and Tuesday) The Hi-Res models are indicating scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and west Texas due to an upper level disturbance and slowly retreating warm front.
Another short wave trough aloft may trigger Sierra Madre Oriental convection again Tuesday night but as before, there will be limited movement into the CWA.
High pressure builds in tonight leading to clear skies. Temperatures will fall to near and below freezing again tonight. Around cranberry country near central Wisconsin, temperatures are likely to dip into the lower 20s. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures are expected to fall near freezing into the mid 20s. After the recent cool weather, a return to warmer and potentially wetter, weather is in the offing. The upper level flow will become quasi-zonal to slightly southwest, allowing several short wave troughs to move across the region.
With the increasing clouds, low temperatures should fall into the lower to middle 40s. The surface warm front may remain just to our south, so a north to south gradient in temps are expected Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday) The upper-level trough moving over the southern Rockies is bringing enhanced lift to eastern New Mexico and west Texas with showers developing in the panhandles and west Texas. Showers and storms will spread into the area this evening and persist into Tuesday as this trough moves over the southern Plains.
1156 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will swing into the area today bringing showers followed by a cold front this evening.
A slightly warmer evening is in store tonight as surface winds continue to turn onshore, allowing for warm and moist Gulf air to once again filter into the region. Expect lows in the upper mid to upper 60s inland and in the lower 70s along the coast, with surface dew points climbing back up into the mid to high 60s by tomorrow morning.
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Look for temperatures tonight to once again be below average, as surface ridging with light east winds will allow temperatures to remain low behind the now passed cold front. Temperatures in our northern zones will be in the low 70s, with temperatures in our southern zones reaching the low 80s. Showers and thunderstorm will develop and expand into the afternoon hours on Tuesday, as that weak upper level disturbance fires convection along the warm front in Southeast OK and Southwest AR.
Deep mixing to nearly 700mb ahead of high pressure building into the Northland will continue to support widespread minimum afternoon relative humidity values of 15 to 25 percent across the area today. Favored the cooler statistical guidance which suggests many locations could set record lows tonight.
After morning lows in the low to mid 50s, temperatures have rebounded into the upper 60s/lower 70s. NW flow persists aloft between a trough over the eastern CONUS and ridging acrs the western third of the US. The gradual onset of low level moisture will help to modify overnight temperatures, with lows tonight about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than this morning, ranging from the middle 50s cntl LA to the lower and middle 60s along I-10, and near 70 along the coast.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBILITY RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE Short Term (Tonight - Tuesday): High pressure will continue to build into the Florida Peninsula tonight into Monday from the north.
We will be frost/freeze headline free tonight as the threat for near or below freezing temperatures has ended for now. Cloud bases remain fairly high as there is quite a bit of dry air in the low levels.
Low temps tonight will dip into the lower 50s across much of the forecast area, possibly even a bit cooler in our northern most counties.
914 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. A clearing trend is expected to begin from W-E overnight/early Tue morning as the high builds in. With overnight lows expected to be near or below freezing, continued the freeze warning as is.
The low/trough will slowly spread south and eventually east by Tuesday night. We may have enough ingredients for one or two severe storms, but these would be on the lower end for severe for mainly wind and hail. Look for warmer temperatures tomorrow.
Have also created a frost advisory buffer where temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s. These two factors bring a threat of freezing temperatures, with forecast lows around 31 to 32 degrees. Temperatures quickly rise above freezing after sunrise. However, an upper-level ridge will begin moving eastward over the Plains by the evening hours.
/issued 229 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The Hi-Res models are indicating scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and west Texas due to an upper level disturbance and slowly retreating warm front.
700 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020 Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough rotating through the western Great Lakes. Expect lows in the lower to mid 20s with a few teens in NW MN. High pressure will be over northwestern Minnesota Tuesday giving a light wind day. Dew point temperatures will be a tad higher, but with the higher temperatures, expect another day of low relative humidity values in the upper teens and 20s. Low pressure will track from the northern high plains into eastern Manitoba during this time frame. Near critical fire weather conditions will remain across the area due to the low humidity and fuels.
The ever shrinking dewpoint depression across the High Plains is an indicator of the moist surface conditions already anchored to the surface. Tomorrow to be warmer and drier, though we remain on track for a few afternoon thunderstorms mainly north of the I-80 corridor and east of I-25 corridor. Otherwise warmer temperatures will spread east over the plains.
North winds were under 10 mph and will continue to diminish overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough rotating through the western Great Lakes. Expect lows in the lower to mid 20s with a few teens in NW MN. High pressure will be over northwestern Minnesota Tuesday giving a light wind day. Dew point temperatures will be a tad higher, but with the higher temperatures, expect another day of low relative humidity values in the upper teens and 20s. Low pressure will track from the northern high plains into eastern Manitoba during this time frame. Near critical fire weather conditions will remain across the area due to the low humidity and fuels.
Surface cold front passed through Baker/OR around 4 PM PDT and Burns/OR around 430 PM PDT. Tuesday will be breezy and about 15 degrees cooler than today.
1043 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure will cross the region early tonight accompanied by showers and isolated thunder. Colder air arriving behind the low overnight will change rain to snow in the higher terrain of northern New Hampshire and the western Maine mountains.
1057 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Dry high pressure will prevail into the weekend.
With light winds then should aid really good radiational cooling setup to where I believe we could drop to around the freezing mark in some areas along/north of Hwy 30. High pressure was building into the area and leading to winds slackening through the day. Cloud shield associated with this and the high pressure will drive the short term weather. With high pressure building, short term looks to be quiet with the exception of a frost risk in the far north. There even may be some places in those counties that get to freezing tonight. Otherwise, some filtered sun and slightly warmer yet still below average temps for Tuesday.
606 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper-level trough moving over the southern Rockies is bringing enhanced lift to eastern New Mexico and west Texas with showers developing in the panhandles and west Texas. Showers and storms will spread into the area this evening and persist into Tuesday as this trough moves over the southern Plains.
Better PoPs then overspread the remainder of the area from SW to NE thru 12z as warm front approaches and axis of isentropic ascent broadens and shifts ewd. Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge over the Rockies with west-northwest flow through the northern plains. At the surface, ridge extends over the eastern Dakotas with stationary front along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Band of precip currently developing over northeast WY into the Black Hills will continue to broaden tonight with stationary front beginning to lift northeast as a warm front. Precip should transition to more liquid by Tuesday afternoon as warm front pushes through and temps warm into the 50s southwest and 40s northeast.
As the lower levels start to moisten, we could finally some rain reach the surface and increase in coverage with expected to stay mainly south of the Missouri River.
The surface warm front may remain just to our south, so a north to south gradient in temps are expected Tuesday.
Winds will remain light and occasionally variable under the high pressure ridge across the region. Tonight and Tuesday: Mid level trough over the northeast portion of the country has begun pulling away which will allow a broad scale ridge to build in from the west Tuesday.
638 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure will cross the region early tonight accompanied by showers and isolated thunder. Colder air arriving behind the low overnight will change rain to snow in the higher terrain of northern New Hampshire and the western Maine mountains.
1054 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Pennsylvania will remain under the influence of a deep upper trough through mid-week. The warmer temperatures will last through the weekend.
232 PM PDT Mon May 11 2020 Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures this week. A wrapped up upper level low is spinning just off the coast of OR this afternoon and it looking beautiful on visible satellite. The cold front associated with this low has pushed into the western portion of the area and has been bringing showers to the northern Sacramento Valley and northern mountains. The front is expected to clear the area to the south and east by 6z/11 pm but showers are going to continue mainly in the higher elevations overnight. We will be in the trough axis on Tuesday and will see a piece of energy spin through around 18z/11 am.
Surface cold front passed through Baker/OR around 4 PM PDT and Burns/OR around 530 PM PDT. Tuesday will be breezy and about 15 degrees cooler than today.
High pressure ridge axis remains over the area, and winds are generally light and out of the N/NE. Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Mid level trough over the northeast portion of the country has begun pulling away which will allow a broad scale ridge to build in from the west Tuesday.
An upper level low pressure off the coast continues to feed moisture over the region under a southerly flow. Spokes of energy pivoting around the low will send a couple more waves of moisture and energy over the forecast area overnight.
831 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Clear skies and light northwest winds are in place at the low levels, with onshore flow along the east coast from the afternoon seabreeze.
1021 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Currently - A strong high pressure system spreading further into the southeastern United States is responsible for moderate to fresh northeast to east northeast breezes across much of the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Isolated to scattered showers emerged off of South Florida this afternoon and strengthened as worked their way across the Lower Keys. A deep layered trough is lifting out while lower level ridging is building from the west. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to spread east and southeastward through the overnight period. Increasing ridging through the lower levels along with drier air aloft means the best chance for precipitation is likely past for the overnight period. Ridging spreading southeastward through the southeastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh breezes across Keys waters.
736 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. 850 MB temperatures are cold enough to support mainly snow, though a marginally warm boundary layer indicates some rain could mix in outside of the higher terrain. With overcast sky, lingering precipitation, and cold air advection temperatures overnight will drop into the low-30s; Freeze Warning has been issued across the region.
The Mid-South is well removed from the warm sector, but warm advection throughout the lower/middle troposphere will continue to provide an impetus for showers across the region overnight and tomorrow. Warmer temperatures and anticipated across north MS with highs in the 70s. Temps have stopped their climb where clouds have moved in and are stuck in the lower 60s from the TN/MS line northward. Cool high pressure will remain anchored across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile a series of upper level disturbances and a northward moving warm front will result in rain across mainly the northern half of the Mid-South for the next 36 hours with mainly dry conditions across north MS.
529 PM MDT Mon May 11 2020 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge over the Rockies with west-northwest flow through the northern plains. At the surface, ridge extends over the eastern Dakotas with stationary front along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Band of precip currently developing over northeast WY into the Black Hills will continue to broaden tonight with stationary front beginning to lift northeast as a warm front. Precip should transition to more liquid by Tuesday afternoon as warm front pushes through and temps warm into the 50s southwest and 40s northeast.
745 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Dry high pressure will prevail into the weekend. High pressure will continue to build from the northwest behind a dry cold front.
1219 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Dry high pressure will prevail into the weekend.
224 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020 /Updated at 0223 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020/ Currently watching a weak disturbance slide along the southern edge of the next area of high pressure. The main upper ridge is firmly in place and is keeping the majority of the precipitation to our north. Lows will be a touch warmer with readings mainly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s in the northeast.
Tuesday will see big changes as the weather turns wetter and much cooler with afternoon thunderstorms possible over southeast Washington and in the southern to central Idaho Panhandle.
High pressure will bring dry and sunny conditions for Wednesday. Dew points are in the mid 20s so there/s still time for the temperatures to tumble below freezing before daybreak, so will leave the Freeze Warning as is. Closed 500mb low skims across the northern NY border into northern New England later today, Cold pool aloft with the low may trigger some instability showers today, especially in the afternoon in the vicinity of the weak surface front draped over the northern zones. High pressure builds in tonight for another very chilly and near record cold night. High pressure will be in place over the region Wednesday evening.
Lows tonight are expected to level off about 5-8 degrees warmer than past few cool nights, then warming/humidity trend onsetting as winds turn to more onshore orientation heading into Wednesday.
1249 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Low pressure will cross the region early tonight accompanied by showers and isolated thunder. Colder air arriving behind the low overnight will change rain to snow in the higher terrain of northern New Hampshire and the western Maine mountains.
228 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure through Wednesday.
High pressure will build to the northwest Tonight, this will provide for a northwest to north flow. The high will build to the north northeast Tuesday, then be to the northeast through Wednesday. As the high builds more to the northeast the flow will become increasingly onshore. Wednesday will be the warmest day, with inland areas reaching near to a little above normal, but readings will be below normal near the coast, as the flow over the relatively cooler Atlantic will hold down high temperatures.
1102 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper-level trough moving over the southern Rockies is bringing enhanced lift to eastern New Mexico and west Texas with showers developing in the panhandles and west Texas. Showers and storms will spread into the area this evening and persist into Tuesday as this trough moves over the southern Plains.
precipitation chances largely driven/dictated by small amplitude waves progressing eastward from the Rockies onto the High Plains. On Wednesday, a lee trough develops along the Rockies, with a dry line extending south from the Colorado border to the TX/OK panhandles. Additional chances for showers and storms enter the forecast overnight as a cold front crosses the region.
239 AM MDT Tue May 12 2020 08z surface analysis had warm front from western MT into northeast CO. Water vapour had low amplitude ridge over the Rockies heading our way. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts east pushing warm front into CWA. Degree of clearing behind warm front in question as upper trough swings from the central Rockies toward MT/WY this afternoon/evening.
322 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Building high pressure will support drying weather and diminished cloud cover today. High temperature should recover to about 10 degrees above yesterdays cold readings, but that will still leave the high approximately 15 degrees under the averages. Dry and cold weather can again be anticipated tonight with areas of freeze again on the ridges and north of PIT, and areas of frost over the remainder of the area.
Then, late evening and overnight, shower chances increase as isentropic upglide continues and weak disturbances move east of the upper ridge axis across the Central Rockies. Highs slightly warmer in the upper 40s to lower 50s. On Wednesday, Strong heating will build north across eastern Colorado and Western Kansas where highs will reach into the low to mid 80s. A warm front will extend from extreme southwest Nebraska through north central Kansas. Thunderstorms near the dryline to our south and near the warm front could bring a few strong or severe storms to the far southeastern counties. Afternoon dewpoints will rise into the lower 50s across the southwest and east.
High pressure and very dry air will remain over the Northland today but the gradient will be weaker leading to lower winds. The high will move east tonight allowing for increasing southerly winds overnight. Total rainfall Wednesday into Wednesday night is expected to be from a couple of tenths of an inch to near a half inch in spots, with far northern Minnesota most likely to see the higher amounts.
339 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020 Early this morning, temperature hadn't fallen as fast as expected so freezing temperatures will confined to central Minnesota, and the typical areas where good drainage occurred. I will continue the freeze warning, but not everyone will experience sub-freezing temperatures before sunrise. No major changes to the current forecast as high pressure will drift overhead today.
A deep layer ridge remains anchored near the region with dry conditions and a few high clouds through the period.
The low clouds and fog should largely mix out by 15-16Z as stronger west to southwesterly winds develop.
150 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool high pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday, then becomes centered offshore on Wednesday.
Deep mixing to nearly 700mb ahead of high pressure building into the Northland will continue to support widespread minimum afternoon relative humidity values of 15 to 25 percent across the area today. Favored the cooler statistical guidance which suggests many locations could set record lows tonight. The global suite of models indicates warm air advection and an increase in moisture as the back side of the ridge moves through, bringing increasingly cloudy skies.
Mild conditions will remain in place through Tuesday, before somewhat cooler weather with a chance of showers arrives midweek. The air mass across the state is on the dry side with temperature-dewpoint depressions spanning some 20-degrees in the lower elevations.
In fact, some guidance suggests highest QPF during the day Wednesday, with baffles me a bit given the suggested mid level short wave ridging forecast.
329 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Pennsylvania will remain under the influence of a deep upper trough through mid-week. The warmer temperatures will last through the weekend. Temperatures are on track to bottom out this morning from around 30F over the N Mtns, to the upper 30s over the Lower Susq Valley. Trough still over area on Wednesday with cool and dry weather once again.
Even with the recent rains along with the wind comes heightened fire danger especially at the lower elevations where grasses and chaparral have begun to dry.
A weak cold front is moving southward through the southern Panhandle early this morning and is expected to pull up stationary somewhere near a Portales to Brownfield to Lake Alan Henry line later this morning. Similar to yesterday, will run with the warmer end of guidance and models. This short wave should still provide some large scale forcing complementing the low level convergence. Surface dew points will surge into the lower 60s with very warm surface temperatures.