Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a negatively tilted upper level trough extends from low pressure in Washington state southeast into southwest Kansas early this evening, slowly lifting northeast overnight. Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle 50s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s across Norton and Graham counties. High temperatures look to be a little cooler with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s in far eastern Colorado, middle 80s to around 90 elsewhere. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper 50s. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper 80s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s in far eastern Colorado, middle 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.
1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (06Z TAFS) High pressure and deep layer dry air will continue to suppress convective development through the forecast period with VFR conditions expected to prevail. TJS (This evening through Thursday night) High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep things quiet in the short term.
(Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the trough over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with a swath of dry air moving in behind. The upper trough will continue moving east today, followed by zonal flow aloft. One is over northern areas at the tail of the trough as it continues moving east, and the other is over the Davis Mountains, as is typical in this pattern this time of year. Absent the upper trough, this activity should peter out rather quickly this evening, despite a forecasted 30+kt LLJ. Friday, zonal flow aloft begins transitioning to southwest as the next upper trough approaches the west coast. Thicknesses increase further, and with the aid of drying soils, highs Friday afternoon should be a couple of degrees warmer than today's, at or above normal most locations.
Water vapor analysis indicates a rather large extratropical cyclone over the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Strong moisture advection associated with this surface cyclone will push into the northern plains over the next several hours. This isentropic ascent will be tied to very strong warm air advection within the lowest 150mb of the troposphere. Still, given the high moisture content of the airmass and multiple shots, it cannot be ruled out, particularly if areas that receive multiple shots of heavy rain. Continued scattered showers and thunderstorms will plague the area for most of the weekend, tied heavily to the aforementioned ET cyclone in the short term period.
The going forecast showing the relatively higher PoPs generally west of I-135 into tonight looks good, with a gradual eastward shift in the moisture/instability plume in concert with the movement of the upper trof should allow for development into the Flint Hills by Friday morning. While it will remain somewhat unstable on Friday, weak subsidence in the wake of the departing upper trof should limit convective redevelopment in the afternoon. Cannot rule out some late day potential perhaps near the surface boundary/trof in west central to north central Kansas by Friday evening.
407 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temps today through the upcoming weekend. This has kept temperatures slightly warmer overnight within 20 miles of the coast; mid and upper 60s with low 60s and even a few upper 50s inland. As clouds clear today, this may translate into warmer temperatures for this afternoon. Remaining dry as high pressure builds into the mid-Atlantic.
235 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift into the Mid-Atlantic states today and tonight as a weak backdoor cold front settles into eastern NC early Friday. A large high pressure area will extend from the Great Lakes south across the deep south and southeastern United States through the end of the week. High pressure will continue to dominate as it extends from New England through the eastern half of the United States. The primary reason for this dry period lies in the forecast pattern that features a trough axis stalled along or just off the east coast and ridging to our north or northwest.
332 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a ridge over Midwest. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Indiana and Illinois into the northern Plains. Latest run of the HREF has the ridge moving to the east while the atmosphere will stay dry through a deep layer. The front will move north as a pressure gradient sets up between high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure of the central High Plains.
Overnight lows dip into the 60s again starting the day off on the cooler side. (Thursday night through Friday night) Ensemble guidance shows the upper level trough lifting out of the region while upper level ridging begins to build in behind it.
As a more robust and coherent wave and attendant upper-level jet streak approach the region Friday, an inverted lee trof and warm front will nose into the area. Low to moderate SB/MLCAPE (500-1500 J/kg) and deep-layer bulk wind shear magnitudes of 25-35 kt could support some isolated strong, rotating updrafts, particularly in the vicinity of the lifting warm front where low-level shear/SRH will be enhanced.
(Today through Friday) High pressure at the surface covers roughly the eastern half of the country this morning, with low pressure and an associated front from the Dakotas into Colorado. Aloft, ridging extends pretty much the length of the Mississippi River Valley, with troughing along the East Coast and the lee side of the Rockies. Dry air will remain parked over the area today with high pressure not moving much.
238 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Today and tonight: Dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist as ridging from the surface to aloft remains positioned over our region. Daytime temps may track a few degrees warmer than yesterday in some areas as the airmass gradually modifies owing to its dry nature.
Rua (This evening through Friday Night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows our old cool front still sitting offshore just beyond our coastal waters zones while high pressure builds swwd from the Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows ridging now in place from the nwrn Gulf up through the srn Plains/Ozarks. The dry air, coupled with dewpoints down to the upper 50s/lower 60s will allow for mins to again drop down to the lower 60s for all but the near the coastline tonight. Temperatures will also be on the rise, starting with wake up temps mostly in the mid/upper 60s, before highs top out in the lower 90s, mainly across the nrn zones.
Storm chances today will favor the northern and eastern half of Arizona with isolated chances over the high terrain of south- central Arizona.
High pressure will continue to result in dry weather, a mostly clear sky, and light winds. Upper-level ridging will continue to build in from the west with increasing temperatures. Later this afternoon, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today as upper heights increase across the area with the upper ridge axis over the Tennessee Valley. Winds will be calm again tonight as the nocturnal inversion sets up with high pressure resulting in a continued clear sky.
The forecast of a high pressure dominated pattern providing dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures is still on track. High pressure and ridging remain in control for tonight and tomorrow, keeping conditions dry and calm. Ridging is building in from the west as a trough keeps moving off the northeast. Clouds will gradually decrease tonight as high pressure and dry air continue to build in. Temps are expected to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow than we saw today, high temps in the low 80s Thursday for much of the valley.
We will remain warm on Friday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Aloft, an upper-level ridge axis will slide directly overhead Thursday into Thursday night before dampening some and drifting east/southeast of the CWA Friday and Friday night. An upper level high will build over Texas over the weekend, keeping our region under the influence of upper level ridging.
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Upper level ridging centered across the Mississippi River Valley region will shift eastward into the eastern CONUS tonight into Thursday. Southwest flow aloft has developed across the Plains due to general long wave troughing across the western CONUS. Still should see about 1500 J/KG of SFC based CAPE develop near the inverted trough.
Water vapor satellite imagery showing deeper moisture streaming north into Idaho this evening, which is supporting shower and thunderstorm development across the highlands south of the Snake Plain. Two Pacific troughs will be moving inland, Thursday's trough from off Oregon, and Friday's trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Gradually cooling temps through Friday night as these troughs come in.
A mid/upper level ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley early today will shift into the southeastern U. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide east towards the Atlantic Coast, allowing low level winds to become southerly.
Temps will be a little cooler than today, in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Today and tonight) An initial piece of energy moving through the mean trough currently aligned across the high Plains may provide enough lift for a few showers early this morning across portions of western Oklahoma. Main trough will then begin to lift northeast during the day today. Some activity may linger through the night tonight across northern Oklahoma as the main trough continues to lift toward the northeast.
1136 PM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022 As of 02Z, southeastward moving cold front lies from near KD07 to just east of KRAP to far southwest SD. Have made some adjustments to pcpn chances through the overnight, with the higher chances persisting across northeast WY and parts of western SD through 06Z or so. 19z surface analysis had weak low over northeast WY with frontal boundary into southern MN and lee trough from central MT to eastern CO. Cooler air builds into behind low tonight with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises, creating gusty winds in the squeeze zone just east of the Black Hills. Thursday, southwest flow aloft continues per upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. Cooler, near normal temperatures foreseen.
High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s which is near normal for this time of year.
(Tonight Through Thursday Night) High pressure was continuing to dominate the weather pattern across Arkansas today. The high was located over the Ohio Valley, and will shift into New England by late in the period. As the winds gradually shift to the southeast, dewpoints will come up just a bit, eventually rising into the lower 60's by Friday afternoon across the southeast. An upper level ridge was present across the area, and this ridge will break down and shift to the east by the end of the period. A weak trof will start to sag into portions of the state by Thursday night, but with dry air in place.
1139 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. Otherwise, dry weather is expected as high pressure builds in behind the trough. Ridging over the Great Lakes should maintain dry weather through Friday night. Ensemble models continue to indicate a flattening ridge through the weekend and maintain warm, dry weather.
206 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. Area of high pressure over the Great Lakes to central Appalachians will keep us in a dry regime through the period. Another One: Discussion On Dry Weather With High Pressure. High pressure will continue to persist, keeping dry weather with near normal temperatures for the forecast area.
A massive ridge of high pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley will slowly drift east through Friday keeping us high and dry. PWATs remain seasonably low and given an easterly wind dewpoints will continue to hover in the low 60s for now. The only rain expected would be an isolated shower along the coast on Friday afternoon as the ridge weakens and the nose of Gulf moisture slowly begins its march back north.
(Today through Friday) An upper level trough moving out across the Plains today creates a weakness in the upper level pattern splitting the ridge with centers over the southeastern states and over northern Mexico later today through Friday.
(Today and tonight) The WV imagery was showing an upper level high pressure system just west of the Baja peninsula and westerly flow from the southwest US on east into Texas.
Looks like the center of the ridge will remain over the Ohio Valley and will provide the region with an overall easterly flow.
(Today) Upper ridge axis will remain entrenched across the central Gulf states today, as high pressure remains layered over much of the eastern CONUS. Afternoon highs will again climb mainly into the lower/mid 80s, with light north winds veering slightly to the east.
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Today and tonight: Dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist as ridging from the surface to aloft remains positioned over our region. Daytime temps may track a few degrees warmer than yesterday in some areas as the airmass gradually modifies owing to its dry nature.
Other than that, we are still expecting a dry and increasingly warmer air mass to dominate over Lower Michigan through Friday.
916 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Issued 915 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022) Patchy dense fog developed across south central WI this morning beneath the low stratus. Cronce (Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022) Today through Friday: Dry conditions continue today, with warmer temperatures expected as a warm front lifts north. Skies will also be rather opaque as well, owing to blossoming cirrus along the warm front and lingering smoke aloft.
658 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temps today through the upcoming weekend. This has kept temperatures slightly warmer overnight within 20 miles of the coast; mid and upper 60s with low 60s and even a few upper 50s inland. As clouds clear today, this may translate into warmer temperatures for this afternoon. Remaining dry as high pressure builds into the mid-Atlantic.
605 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a ridge over Midwest. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Indiana and Illinois into the northern Plains. Latest run of the HREF has the ridge moving to the east while the atmosphere will stay dry through a deep layer. The front will move north as a pressure gradient sets up between high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure of the central High Plains.
With high pressure dominating regional weather conditions, expect clear skies, light easterly winds, and temperatures warming into the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon with dewpoint temperatures remaining comfortable in the upper 50s and lower 60s. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s which is near normal for this time of year.
454 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022) Today through Friday: Dry conditions continue today, with warmer temperatures expected as a warm front lifts north. Skies will also be rather opaque as well, owing to blossoming cirrus along the warm front and lingering smoke aloft.
536 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. These clouds should diminish as the trough completes its passage and dissipates later this morning.
640 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure centered over the area this morning will move off to the east today and tonight. A warm front will lift north across the area tonight through tomorrow morning.
442 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the trough over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with a swath of dry air moving in behind. The upper trough will continue moving east today, followed by zonal flow aloft. One is over northern areas at the tail of the trough as it continues moving east, and the other is over the Davis Mountains, as is typical in this pattern this time of year. Absent the upper trough, this activity should peter out rather quickly this evening, despite a forecasted 30+kt LLJ. Friday, zonal flow aloft begins transitioning to southwest as the next upper trough approaches the west coast. Thicknesses increase further, and with the aid of drying soils, highs Friday afternoon should be a couple of degrees warmer than today's, at or above normal most locations.
1037 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. Area of high pressure over the Great Lakes to central Appalachians will keep us in a dry regime through the period. Another One: Discussion On Dry Weather With High Pressure. High pressure will continue to persist, keeping dry weather with near normal temperatures for the forecast area.
(Rest of Today) Early morning fog is quickly dissipating and clear conditions are present across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control of our weather. With the amplifying ridge, plenty of sunshine, and the dry soils, think temperatures will run a degree or two higher than yesterday, with most locations peaking in the mid 80s (with a few locations in northwest Alabama peaking in the upper 80s).
620 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today through Friday) An upper level trough moving out across the Plains today creates a weakness in the upper level pattern splitting the ridge with centers over the southeastern states and over northern Mexico later today through Friday.
620 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today and tonight) An initial piece of energy moving through the mean trough currently aligned across the high Plains may provide enough lift for a few showers early this morning across portions of western Oklahoma. Main trough will then begin to lift northeast during the day today. Some activity may linger through the night tonight across northern Oklahoma as the main trough continues to lift toward the northeast.
751 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
547 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today) Weak upper trough will pass over the area today.
12Z surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Ontario, with the ridge axis extending southward through the Great Lakes and into the upper Ohio Valley. 12Z ILN RAOB reveals copious amounts of dry air through the lower troposphere, increasing confidence in the dry forecast for today. We will remain warm on Friday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
924 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temperatures through the weekend. This has kept temperatures slightly warmer overnight within 20 miles of the coast; mid and upper 60s with low 60s and even a few upper 50s inland. As clouds clear today, this may translate into warmer temperatures for this afternoon. Remaining dry as high pressure builds into the mid-Atlantic.
637 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. Area of high pressure over the Great Lakes to central Appalachians will keep us in a dry regime through the period. Another One: Discussion On Dry Weather With High Pressure. High pressure will continue to persist, keeping dry weather with near normal temperatures for the forecast area.
645 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today) Upper ridge axis will remain entrenched across the central Gulf states today, as high pressure remains layered over much of the eastern CONUS. Afternoon highs will again climb mainly into the lower/mid 80s, with light north winds veering slightly to the east.
529 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. These clouds should diminish as the trough completes its passage and dissipates later this morning.
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift into the Mid-Atlantic states today and tonight as a weak backdoor cold front settles into eastern NC early Friday. A large high pressure area will extend from the Great Lakes south across the deep south and southeastern United States through the end of the week. High pressure will continue to dominate as it extends from New England through the eastern half of the United States. The primary reason for this dry period lies in the forecast pattern that features a trough axis stalled along or just off the east coast and ridging to our north or northwest.
602 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery was showing an upper level high pressure system just west of the Baja peninsula and westerly flow from the southwest US on east into Texas.
A few isolated showers remain over northwestern Arizona behind the departing trough, and is expected to diminish by daybreak. Some lingering surface moisture could led to patchy fog developing overnight and into the early morning, especially in the cooler, wetter locations. Otherwise, cooler, more seasonable overnight lows under mostly clear skies are expected across the region. Behind the departing trough, heights gradely rise today as weak ridging builds into Arizona. Slightly warmer and drier conditions ensue across the region as a result. An isolated shower or two will remain possible this afternoon over the higher terrain of far northern Arizona where some lingering moisture remains.
Light E/NE flow will continue as the boundary washes out and weak ridging builds, with an upper trough keeping high rain chances for the next several days.
139 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
1228 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a ridge over Midwest. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Indiana and Illinois into the northern Plains. Latest run of the HREF has the ridge moving to the east while the atmosphere will stay dry through a deep layer. The front will move north as a pressure gradient sets up between high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure of the central High Plains.
Current temps were generally in the lower 80s and will rise a few more degrees during our peak heating hours.
The inland convection is along the sea breeze, but a weak inverted trough is also helping to drive the showers and storms especially over the water. This trough will continue inland tonight. Seasonal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s are expected to continue with humid nights and lows in the 70s.
A weak upper trof axis will push across east Texas and Louisiana tomorrow, but dry air through the column is only expected to yield scattered fair weather cu during the afternoon. At the surface, comfortable conditions will continue before the ridging responsible slides far enough east to turn low level flow back out of the south Friday night advecting a tropical airmass back over the region.
1252 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Today and tonight: Dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist as ridging from the surface to aloft remains positioned over our region. Daytime temps may track a few degrees warmer than yesterday in some areas as the airmass gradually modifies owing to its dry nature.
Temperatures are expected to be on the cooler side behind the front, with lows tonight dropping to the upper 40s near the Cando and Langdon area and lower 60s ahead of the front in Ottertail county. Continued rain will help keep temperatures cooler tomorrow, with highs only in the 50s in NE ND and the low to mid 60s in west central and NW MN.