Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft locked in across the Central Plains and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is centered across southwest Kansas. The highest temperatures near 105 will be south and east of this boundary. Given the high dewpoints expected north of the front, instability will actually be higher on the cool side of the boundary, which is typical in summer. So these storms may form to the south, but one or two of them could propagate northward along any cool outflows into the higher instability as far north as Dodge City and Larned. Upper level ridging will develop this weekend across the high plains.
A stubborn closed low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will remain firmly planted in place for the next few days.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Persistent high pressure across the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain hot and generally dry weather across Deep South Texas into late this week. Have leaned toward warmer guidance on highs, especially at HRL and BRO, in the upper 90s, with triple digit heat further inland.
236 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Breezy afternoons with slightly below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday before ridging develops over the area and increases temperatures to slightly above normal levels by the weekend.
412 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Mostly clear skies across the Mid-South early this morning with current temperatures in the low 80s.
555 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Today through Thursday) Subtropical Ridge remains in control today and Thursday. Subsidence under the Ridge inhibits convective development to keep rain out of the forecast. However, cannot rule out a shower or two, perhaps a thunderstorm near the Coastal Plains Thursday afternoon due to some enhancement of the seabreeze by a weak inverted trough as it moves across our area.
stretching from low pressure over the Central Plains thru Iowa. Large area of high pressure remains centered to our north and west across much of Canada. High pressure will remain in control for the majority of the short term period, continuing precipitation free weather and normal temperatures. There will be a weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure to the east of Hudson Bay that will drag through northern Michigan later Thursday. Immediately behind this cold front high pressure once again builds in from the north and will dominate northern Michigan's weather once again with precipitation free weather and typical summertime temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period.
735 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes with a return to dry weather today for most locations and then continue into the weekend.
The cold front has pushed through Nebraska, so most of the area will see a reprieve from the heat.
This has left the area in gentle to moderate moist southeasterly flow through the lower boundary layer. Convection will develop along streamers building off the heating of the Lower Keys and coalesce into clusters of convection. This should result in convection forming just north of the lower Keys as the day progresses. Overall, the high chance currently in the forecast package should suffice.
Potential for slightly cooler conditions this weekend. The heat and humidity will continue today across the area as an upper level ridge axis remains overhead. The upper level ridge will remain in place through Thursday.
Some patchy drizzle in spots as well, again mainly the higher terrain. stretching from low pressure over the Central Plains thru Iowa. Large area of high pressure remains centered to our north and west across much of Canada. High pressure will remain in control for the majority of the short term period, continuing precipitation free weather and normal temperatures. There will be a weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure to the east of Hudson Bay that will drag through northern Michigan later Thursday. Immediately behind this cold front high pressure once again builds in from the north and will dominate northern Michigan's weather once again with precipitation free weather and typical summertime temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period.
543 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Today) Satellite imagery this morning depicts a very active picture across the Midwest and Plains where a series of MCSs are riding along a broad upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure along the Gulf Coast continues to dominate the local weather pattern. Although subsidence under the high may limit the coverage of storms. With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, maximum heat index values will be in the 103 to 110 range.
/issued 412 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022/ Mostly clear skies across the Mid-South early this morning with current temperatures in the low 80s.
622 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Today through Thursday) Dangerous heat and humidity will build even more today under a strong upper level ridge.
623 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 A weak cold front stall out along or just south of the Mason- Dixon Line later today, and remain the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Diffuse sfc cold front sagging through the WC and C Mountains this morning, and has produced only isolated showers as instability remains limited thanks to very warm air aloft.
The highest temperatures near 105 will be south and east of this boundary. Given the high dewpoints expected north of the front, instability will actually be higher on the cool side of the boundary, which is typical in summer. So these storms may form to the south, but one or two of them could propagate northward along any cool outflows into the higher instability as far north as Dodge City and Larned. Upper level ridging will develop this weekend across the high plains.
1055 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes with a return to dry weather this afternoon for most locations. Arrival of reinforcing cold front and wind shift to the north-northeast may trigger a few light showers or sprinkles through midday south of Lake Ontario as well.
726 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes with a return to dry weather today for most locations and then continue into the weekend.
602 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Today) A broad mid level ridge of high pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to maintain hot and dry weather over the area today. The low level thermal ridge over the central and southern Plains will expand east some today, and the net result will be a degree or two increase in afternoon highs in some places.
The cold front, now in northern Kansas, has been reinforced by the cold pool resultant of the earlier evening convection. Today's high temps will be cooler by 5-10 degrees for most of the area with some mid 90s possible along the Kansas state line, dependent on where that front settles. High temps will be cooler and will probably fall shy of seasonal norms by a couple of degrees.
/issued 417 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Persistent high pressure across the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain hot and generally dry weather across Deep South Texas into late this week. Have leaned toward warmer guidance on highs, especially at HRL and BRO, in the upper 90s, with triple digit heat further inland.
605 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper level high that has been the dominant player in our weather pattern will continue to expand westward across the area and even strengthen as we move through today and tonight. With clear/mostly clear skies allowing for high amounts of insolation and the 850 mb thermal ridge continuing to strengthen across our northern and western counties in particular, highs today will continue on their upward trend with temperatures in the Concho Valley and Heartland northward ranging from 100-105.
KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 95 75 95 / 50 30 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 73 94 75 93 / 40 20 60 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 95 72 94 74 93 / 40 20 60 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 69 90 70 89 / 40 30 70 40 70 TN.
The cold front, now in northern Kansas, has been reinforced by the cold pool resultant of the earlier evening convection. Today's high temps will be cooler by 5-10 degrees for most of the area with some mid-90s possible along the Kansas state line, dependent on where that front settles. High temps will be cooler and will probably fall shy of seasonal norms by a couple of degrees.
Heading into the weekend, a high amplitude trough will dig into the CONUS east coast, which will become the eastern extent of a developing omega block over CONUS. This will serve to shunt the Atlantic ridge southward, reminiscent of the synoptic pattern which plagued us in June.
Upper 80s/Lower 90s can be expected for highs in the valleys with low to mid 80s expected across the high country.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Subtropical ridging centered over the Southeast CONUS will continue to dominate the weather as it expands farther westward into the Desert Southwest. However, a minor inverted trough underneath the bottom of the subtropical ridge in the western Gulf of Mexico, will advance across the southern half of the state from late tonight through Thursday. The highs should again range from the mid to upper 90s for the Hill Country to around 100 to 103 degrees elsewhere. Conditions remain warm at night with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 70s across the Hill Country to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. The weak inverted trough may help the seabreeze for the opportunity of a stray shower or convective cell to advance into or across our coastal plain counties during Thursday afternoon.
134 PM PDT Tue Jul 6 2022 Gradual warming will begin on Thursday as our deep marine layer shrinks back to coastal areas under building high pressure aloft. It will be noticeably warmer tomorrow as well, especially inland. The high amplitude trough that has been anchored along the West Coast for the past week or so will be retreating as the subtropical high builds north over the Rockies through the coming weekend.
Trough north of low into central MT. Cap eroded over the higher terrain of the Black Hills courtesy of daytime insolation with radar showing increasing TSRA coverage.
Slightly cooler temperatures are likely tonight as a weak cold front pushes southeast into western Kansas. Lows are expected down into the 60s(F) in west central and portions of southwest Kansas with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite as hot for much of the area Thursday as a weak cold front pushes southeast across much of southwest Kansas late tonight before stalling out Thursday morning.
This feature has been aided by the weak 500mb short wave lifting toward the area from the west, riding along the larger flow regime over the upper ridge centered over the broader southeastern U. This cloud cover has really kept temperatures down, nearly 6 to 7 degrees cooler than areas experiencing sunshine.
Drier and cooler air is expected by the weekend. That activity is being funnelled through the wnw flow aloft along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. No change was needed for the seasonable temperature forecast as dewpoints fall slow from the north with a southward sagging cold front. As we head into the latter portion of the week, models begin suggesting the amplification of the central CONUS ridge and the downstream northeast troughing. Continued southwest flow in the low-levels will keep a warm, moist airmass in place south of the front.
While the center of the sub-tropical ridge has translated slightly to the north and east, hot temperatures will persist today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 90s across the Caprock to near 105 deg F in the low Rolling Plains. The upper ridge currently over the southeastern CONUS will begin to jog west late on Thursday and will continue moving west through the weekend. This weekend, as the ridge passes overhead on its move to the southwestern CONUS, moisture looks to be trapped under the ridge and rotate overhead.
This band is on secondary cold front, which is slowly moving south. Showers should taper off by mid-day as expanding high pressure north of Lake Superior spreads southwards. Northeasterly flow persists today ushering in cooler and drier air. Cooler 850mb temps in conjunction with more cloud cover should help keep temps limited to the low 80s to upper 70s north.
Thunderstorms have been forming over the high terrain and not making much progress off the terrain. Vorticity will move out of ID this afternoon and cross the area through the ridge through this evening. Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the evening with the highest coverage N and NW of KBIL, and over SE MT and Sheridan County.
413 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 A weak cold front passing through the area will stall out along or just south of the Mason-Dixon Line tonight, and remain the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Thanks to the high pressure which will be pressing the front southward, much of the next 5 to 6 days will be dry, though, especially north of the PA Turnpike. Latest model runs seem to indicate a better southward push by the dry air/high pressure for Thurs and Fri than we have had going for a couple of days. The passage of a stronger cold front on Fri aftn may yet cause SHRA/TSRA over a good portion of the far SE.
SHORT TERM TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Will be playing the persistence game as expansive 500mb ridge which is taking up real- estate from the Western Atlantic and the SE States across the entire State of Texas is not expected to move anytime soon. A weak mid-level disturbance continues to be shown by the latest model suite to move west of the Lower Texas coast Thursday morning.
A mix of IFR/MVFR is expected over the coastal waters, along the coast, and into the lower portions of the Umpqua Valley with isolated showers possible overnight. An upper level trough will remain over the eastern Pacific Ocean and into the Pacific Northwest through the week. A thermal trough is expected to return to the southern coast this upcoming weekend with increased north winds, especially south of Cape Blanco.
1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Today through Thursday) Dangerous heat and humidity will build even more today under a strong upper level ridge.
(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Low level thermal ridge will expand further into the area Thursday, with even hotter daytime temps in the 98-105 range.
102 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 With a stout upper ridge in control resulting in warm mid levels and subsidence, shower and storm coverage has been lower thus far today than yesterday. Upper ridging maintains itself atop our area or very nearby through Thursday and heat advisories continue through the period for most of the area. Afternoon shower and storm chances will remain suppressed due to the ridging aloft, with once again only isolated to widely scattered coverage.
1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 An upper ridge axis extended from Oklahoma eastward through Georgia and South Carolina. An upper low was centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models show an H7 trough from WY and CO into swrn NE which will lift slowly northeast today into tonight. On Thursday, the upper ridge begins to build over the Rockies with the upper flow fairly zonal across NE. Highs should be slightly cooler from the lower 80s north central to mid 80s southwest.
Florida remains under the influence of weak and broad ridging aloft and at the surface. This pattern continues into the weekend when the upper-level pattern amplifies and a trough axis tries to dig southward.
Isolated convection was noted on IR imagery east of the N-S inverted trough position (GFS/ECMWF/NAM initializations) over the western Gulf of Mexico at 12z today. Concur with the deterministic output that the trough axis will continue to move westward and approach the coast by around 12z Thursday.
125 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Overview: A synoptic pattern characterized by broad/expansive ridging aloft over the central and southeastern CONUS -- and SSW flow aloft over the Intermountain West/Rockies -- will persist.
(This evening through Thursday) The upper level high that has been the dominant player in our weather pattern will continue to expand westward across the area and even strengthen as we move through Thursday.
Atlantic ridge axis remains across central Florida into late week, with a relatively light low level S/SE flow continuing.
Breezy afternoons with slightly below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday before ridging develops over the area and increases temperatures to slightly above normal levels by the weekend.
1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper level high that has been the dominant player in our weather pattern will continue to expand westward across the area and even strengthen as we move through today and tonight. With clear/mostly clear skies allowing for high amounts of insolation and the 850 mb thermal ridge continuing to strengthen across our northern and western counties in particular, highs today will continue on their upward trend with temperatures in the Concho Valley and Heartland northward ranging from 100-105.
Subtle dry air advection will work across the region through the evening hours and will start to scour out cloud cover as upper level divergence and a subsequent high pressure system builds in. Dry conditions will carry on into Thursday under the influence of high pressure, with any lingering stratus development expected to scour out through the afternoon. Periods of sunshine will help push temperatures into the lower 80s for a daytime high under a broader translucent cirrus shield from upstream activity over the Midwest.
However, coverage could be even more decreased as the upper ridge starts building in from the east.
Ceilings are a mix of IFR/MVFR along the coast with the lowest conditions along the south coast near Brookings and the adjacent coast ranges, where terrain obscuration still exists along with a little light rain/drizzle. An upper level trough will remain over the eastern Pacific Ocean and into the Pacific Northwest through the week. A thermal trough is expected to return to the southern coast this upcoming weekend with increased north winds, especially south of Cape Blanco.
The hot and humid conditions will be out of the area tomorrow as cooler air and continued chances for precipitation will exist across the region.
Drier and cooler air is expected by the weekend. That activity is being funnelled through the wnw flow aloft along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. As we head into the latter portion of the week, models begin suggesting the amplification of the central CONUS ridge and the downstream northeast troughing. Continued southwest flow in the low-levels will keep a warm, moist airmass in place south of the front.
Lows tonight will again be warm and muggy, in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. With only isolated showers and storms expected on Thursday, highs will likely be slightly warmer, reaching the lower to mid 90s over inland areas and upper 80s to around 90 degrees closer to the coast.
-Glinskas MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting northward out of it through Idaho and into British Columbia. A closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and is providing an express lane for pacific moisture over northern California through central Montana between the two airmasses. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Montana mountains during the early afternoon hours and then begin their migration across the high plains by the late afternoon and early evening.
833 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Gradual warming will begin after today as our deep marine layer shrinks back to coastal areas under building high pressure aloft.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: With a stout upper ridge in control resulting in warm mid levels and subsidence, shower and storm coverage has been lower thus far today than yesterday. Upper ridging maintains itself atop our area or very nearby through Thursday and heat advisories continue through the period for most of the area. Afternoon shower and storm chances will remain suppressed due to the ridging aloft, with once again only isolated to widely scattered coverage.
Drier and cooler air is expected by the weekend. As we head into the latter portion of the week, models begin suggesting the amplification of the central CONUS ridge and the downstream northeast troughing. Continued southwest flow in the low-levels will keep a warm, moist airmass in place south of the front.
An upper level low will remain offshore through Thursday, allowing for showery weather to persist across Western Washington.
Weather remains dry and breezy over the next few days, with temperatures slowly trending warmer.
/issued 244 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022/ SHORT TERM TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Will be playing the persistence game as expansive 500mb ridge which is taking up real- estate from the Western Atlantic and the SE States across the entire State of Texas is not expected to move anytime soon. A weak mid-level disturbance continues to be shown by the latest model suite to move west of the Lower Texas coast Thursday morning.
Below average temperatures continue for another afternoon as ridging over the Four Corners region pushes westward through the weekend.
616 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 (This evening through Thursday) The upper level high that has been the dominant player in our weather pattern will continue to expand westward across the area and even strengthen as we move through Thursday.
/EC/ With a stout upper ridge in control resulting in warm mid levels and subsidence, shower and storm coverage has been lower thus far today than yesterday. Upper ridging maintains itself atop our area or very nearby through Thursday and heat advisories continue through the period for most of the area. Afternoon shower and storm chances will remain suppressed due to the ridging aloft, with once again only isolated to widely scattered coverage.
High pressure ridging remains across the central/south- central peninsula. The surface Atlantic ridge axis remains across central Florida with a predominantly light, low-level S/SE flow.
Bermuda high pressure off to the east directs a southerly flow across the Florida peninsula over the next few days. Tomorrow, temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s.
A high pressure system located in the Atlantic Ocean will maintain gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes over the Florida Keys coastal waters tonight.
After several days of active weather, the upper trough and low responsible for this wet/cool pattern will push northward and gradually lose its influence over our forecast area.
220 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 A weak cold front will stall out along or just south of the Mason-Dixon Line overnight, and remain the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week. Thanks to the high pressure which will be pressing the front southward, much of the next 5 to 6 days will be dry, though, especially north of the PA Turnpike. This upstream trend of decreasing convection/dry advection will translate east into the Lower Susq River Valley over the next few hours. Latest model runs seem to indicate a better southward push by the dry air/high pressure for Thurs and Fri than we have had going for a couple of days. The passage of a stronger cold front later Fri aftn/night may yet cause SHRA/TSRA over a good portion of the far SE.