Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL INHIBIT SHOWERS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE COMES IN FROM NEVADA. AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EWD ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND SRN-MOST IDAHO. A BROAD UPPER LOW WRAPPING UP ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY PROCEED EASTWARD TODAY AND MONDAY. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. AND THEN THE LOW ITSELF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A wide range of temperatures is in place across the region this morning, with 2 AM readings ranging from the low 50s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas to the low to mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks. High pressure will remain centered over the Ohio Valley today, slowly pushing east toward the Mid Atlantic by tonight. Highs today over far western Missouri and southeastern Kansas should warm to around 70, with cooler readings in the low to mid 60s further east. Much warmer conditions are expected by Monday, with highs well into the 70s. Conditions may begin to approach Red Flag conditions over the far northwestern portions of the forecast area Monday afternoon, especially if temperatures end up being a bit warmer than currently expected.
643 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT FUNNELED THE NOVEMBER-ISH TYPE AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW. THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY WHILE INCREASING HEIGHTS A LOFT BUILD IN WITH THE RIDGING. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S FOR MANY.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT PUTTING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH RH'S ALSO BEGINNING TO LOWER. THE HIGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE MIDATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF LIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
1049 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 1000 AM DISPLAYS THE MAIN AXIS OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STILL PARKED OVER HONDURAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1000 AM DETAIL THE CENTER OF A STRONG 1034-1035 RIDGE ALIGNED FROM NEW JERSEY TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS A FEW LARGE CLUSTERS OF FAST MOVING BRIEF YET MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS NOW ENCROACHING UPON THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 65 DEGREES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WEST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
627 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TRAVERSING THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE CLOSED CIRCULATION AND LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BY MID WEEK.
THIS MORNING A TROUGH IS POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED OFFSHORE NUDGES INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. ALSO, EXPECT BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A STRONG SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE INVERSION WILL BRING WARMER MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO RIDGES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT ALTHOUGH A WEAK, LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL DRAW THE RATHER DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF UTAH ACROSS MUCH OF STATE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND ON THE WARM SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN ABNORMALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
/ISSUED 356 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ (Today and Tonight) It will be another persistence forecast today, with the upper ridge parked over West Central Texas.
634 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER HIGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 69 88 71 / 20 10 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 68 87 69 / 10 10 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 89 68 87 70 / 10 10 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 63 86 67 / 10 10 20 20.
619 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THE HIGH. AN UPPER LOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR SE. THE LOW FORMING OVER THE NE GULF SHOULD DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT WILL HELP PRODUCE TROUGHING IN THE POLAR JET FOR MID AND LATTER WEEK. THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. COOLER AIR NORTH OF FRONT SHOULD FILTER SOUTHWARD.
MOISTURE TRAPPED WITH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEND TO A FEW POP SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK. ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
951 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ UPPER LOW STARTING TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT IS HANGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE A GREAT DEAL FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DAY AFTER DAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODERATE. THE UPPER LOW THEN OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED BY A BROAD EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE UP THE ENTIRE CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
CDFNT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SERN US. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY STATES. 09 /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THE HIGH. AN UPPER LOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR SE. THE LOW FORMING OVER THE NE GULF SHOULD DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT WILL HELP PRODUCE TROUGHING IN THE POLAR JET FOR MID AND LATTER WEEK. THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. COOLER AIR NORTH OF FRONT SHOULD FILTER SOUTHWARD.
952 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE AREA BY MID WEEK. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TODAY AS AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. A WEAK TROF OVERHEAD NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER HIGH TUESDAY. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN EACH DAY WED AND THU.
925 AM PDT MON SEP 7 2015 WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. SO THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY MAY NEED A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH WARMER VALLEYS TOPPING 100 AND LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS CLOSE TO 100 ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN AND 105-108 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.
MORNING REGIONAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING TO OUR EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY RETROGRADING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT A BIT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL BROADEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE WEST ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOT HELP US WITH OUR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE CWA. THE HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM GUIDANCE AS THE PAST TWO DAYS WE HAVE OVERACHIEVED.
An upper level low is centered over the far northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning. There is no indication from the NHC that there is a threat for tropical or subtropical development as the low drifts slowly northwest through Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure over the east-central Gulf will move slowly north through Tuesday.
856 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ABNORMALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
GOOD DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER EXPECTED ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NE CWA WHERE H7 TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER /WOULD IDEALLY LIKE TO HAVE H7 TEMPS LESS THAN 10C FOR CONVECTIVE CONFIDENCE/.
729 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND NE FL. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY STRETCHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TODAY.
1214 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
1020 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. 12Z MODELS CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF A WARM FRONT MOVING BY MOSTLY TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER AL/GA BORDER WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND FILL. WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA WEAKENING WHILE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER MOISTURE INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC.
1002 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DOMINATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER GEORGIA TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
The trailing cold front will push across the local forecast area during the day today. With a strong ridge in place along the eastern seaboard, and deep trough redeveloping over the western states, the tendency will be for the front to weaken with time as large scale forcing rapidly lifts northeast and weakens. Despite rather strong shear in the low/mid levels, meager instability will minimize any severe threat today.
306 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 IT HAS BEEN A LITTLE QUIETER TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
1123 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KGPT AND THAT WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO 06Z.
308 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY IT. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. WARMER THAN THE MAVMOS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN. AND WILL TAPER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL PUSH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE THE QG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
333 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 The closed low, which was the catalyst for what was record daily rainfall for many areas across the CWA yesterday, is evident on water vapor imagery this morning across eastern Kansas. This upper low will move ENE through the CWA this morning. Light rain and clouds will keep conditions much cooler then the past few days with highs in the 40s. As the departing upper level system pushes into the Great Lakes region this afternoon we will turn our attention to another trough digging into the Great Basin. For example, in response to that system digging into the Great Basin, weak upper level ridging will develop out ahead of it.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO JUST UNDER 3K FEET MSL. BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE ICE DEVELOPING ON ROADS AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. AS OF 03Z COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN LAST NIGHT. AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH MORE PCPN. AT 2 PM MST THE COLD FRONT WAS IN BAKER AND HARNEY COUNTIES IN OREGON.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL RACE IN AND OUT TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
343 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE GENERATING RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
327 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 TODAY-TONIGHT: UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THIS MORNING. TUE: WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING NEXT TROUGH DIGGING IN THE WESTERN US. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS AS A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
330 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 Early this morning the upper low was located over northeast KS. As the upper low lifts northeast across northern MO into eastern IA by 15Z Today, the TROWAL should shift northeast into the southern NE. Temperatures will remain a degree or two above freezing, so I do not expect slick roads unless there is a moderate snow burst between the 12Z-14Z time period that could coat some roads with wet snow. By late morning all the precip will be northeast of the CWA as the upper low moves into the upper Midwest. Tonight, the clouds will increase as another upper level trough across the desert southwest lift northeast into CO. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s.
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK. LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD. IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TODAY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
METAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO MONROE LOUISIANA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MISSOURI NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES.
359 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA TO TEXAS WILL MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS STRETCHED FROM SE IA. BUT EITHER WAY A SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER AIR THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
1239 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY.
SO FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE ALSO BECOMING AN EVOLVING PROBLEM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TO EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY.
THEN DRY OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
131 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
350 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 Moisture continues to wrap around departing upper low, with a few lingering showers across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas at this time. Influence of the low will continue to wane throughout today, however a few showers may persist a bit beyond 12z in far northeastern areas. The Pacific origin airmass ushered in by yesterday's cold front will allow temps to remain above normal the next couple of days, though not quite what we saw last week.
302 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW.
1127 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM PIERRE TO THE SISSETON HILLS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND NO ICE CRYSTALS IT IS LIKELY THE DRIZZLE EXTENDS QUITE A WAYS IN AREAL COVERAGE. COULD EVEN SEE MIST OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN.
325 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 Strong low pressure, currently centered over eastern Iowa, will continue to impact central and southeast Illinois today. The cold front associated with the system currently extends southeast across northern Illinois, and has already cleared entire forecast area. That being said, daytime highs will still be well above normal, in the lower 50s, for the middle of December. However, the upper low/cold pool driving the surface system is still centered near the KS/MO border area.
1159 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
431 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LIFTS NORTH AND FORCING WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.
310 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 One upper low is departing the area but another will quickly follow tonight. The first low has scoured out the low level moisture so there will not be a chance for rain with this next system, though there will be a return of strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains. Today will be the warmest day of this forecast period as the next upper low brings a cold front that will keep cooler air in the region through the week.
413 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PUSHING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT.
Lingering snowbands are collapsing quickly early this morning, as intense 534 dm cyclone over SE KS begins to accelerate away. Subsidence behind the departing system will clear the sky quickly this morning, allowing temperatures to fall well below freezing.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. FAIR AND COOLER ON MONDAY WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER IOWA ENSUES. WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S AND LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
As upper low begins to lift NE of the area overnight ceiling heights will begin to slowly increase with VFR conditions expected into Monday as winds become more westerly with time. Upper low continues to progress across the Southern/Central Plains this evening with scattered rain showers wrapping around the low across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper low and associated precip will continue to lift northeast through the Central Plains. Colder air on the backside of the upper low should remain northwest of the CWA. The one exception will over far Southeast Oklahoma that could try to clear out early Monday morning as the upper low pushes far enough north of the CWA. being closer to the backside of the low.
1145 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO AREAS IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY AFTER RECEIVING REPORT. WILL BE MONITORING FOR FREEZING POTENTIAL. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FAR SE ND BASED ON REPORT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR FRI/SAT AND SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT GIVEN COLD AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY IT. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. WARMER THAN THE MAVMOS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN. AND WILL TAPER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
332 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 CURRENTLY - A HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SLIDING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS NEARING THE ISLANDS. AND A WEAK ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK. THE KEYS WILL REMAIN NEAR A RIDGE AXIS AS A TUTT CELL MEANDERS AND WEAKENS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.