Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
457 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO TOP THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOWS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN THIS MORNING THANKS TO DEWPOINTS THAT ARE GRADUALLY CREEPING HIGHER. AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGHER DWPTS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE M/U60S. A COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN SRN QUEBEC WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN SXNS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. DESPITE THE HIGH CAPES.
205 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER OF NORTH TEXAS THE MOST FOR THE LAST WEEK. THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SATURDAY. SO THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES.
1209 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2015 Another warm and humid day is underway across the region this afternoon, with mid afternoon temperatures within a few degrees of 90, and dew points in the low 70s.
311 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA, WITH WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THIS WEEKEND.
239 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY PROVIDING ANOTHER NICE DAY UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY GENERAL UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE LEE- SIDE TROUGHING DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
605 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TODAY. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. FEEL THAT THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE IS PRUDENT. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERAL OF THE UPPER RIDGE THRU THE WEEKEND. ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DIVING SE OVER THE AREA.
348 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2015 High pressure centered over the Southern Plains is keeping a hot and humid air mass firmly in place over the region. A series of short waves moving along the northern periphery of the upper level ridge has set off scattered convection across the mid Mississippi into the Texas panhandle overnight. Highs for today and Saturday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values ranging from 99 to 104 today and 100 to 105 on Saturday. Conditions are expected to remain hot and humid through the weekend as the upper level ridge remains in place over the area.
HEAT INDICES DONT MAKE IT OUT OF THE LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. WITH ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 12Z SAT. WILL WORK WITH THE HIGHER POPS DEVELOPING WEST AND SPREADING INTO THE EAST CWA THROUGH 06Z SAT FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT THAT STRONG. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. A 50+ KT SPEED MAX AT 500 MB WILL ALSO BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WESTERN KOOCHICHING/ITASCA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS THIS HIGH ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN A THREAT AS WELL WITH THE HIGH PWAT VALUES. IT WILL MUGGY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER SIXTIES TO AROUND 70.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
413 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 41 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. FOR FRIDAY, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HAYS TO SYRACUSE BY EVENING.
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS AND SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TEMPORARILY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT DUE TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN LOWER CAPE AND STORMS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE FL BEFORE WASHING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW.
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 THE HOT WEATHER WILL INTENSITY SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS MORE DIRECTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. FOR TODAY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
345 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS SW INDIANA WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. UPPER RIDGE BUILT INTO THE AREA EVEN MORE THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW EVEN AS THE 850 MB WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH A NON-NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR PROFILE.
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT A BIT WEST DURING THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS RATHER BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS. BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WARM CORE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND AS A RESULT DEEPENING LOW AT THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
615 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS SW INDIANA WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
314 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TODAY. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. FEEL THAT THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE IS PRUDENT.
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT.
349 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY, KEEPING OUR AREA DRY AND QUIET.
THEREAFTER ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MOVING E TO NE OVER SOME LOWER TERRAIN LOCALES.
255 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
121 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR STARTS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST NUMBERS THIS SUMMER SEASON TO DATE. UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS POSITIONING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
PARTIALLY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER UPSTREAM BUT ALSO PARTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF WARM CORE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM EASTERN NE THROUGH CENTRAL KS INTO THE TX BIG BEND. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION THUS FAR. THE SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF A TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY.
633 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY, KEEPING OUR AREA DRY AND QUIET.
BROAD ZONE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ATTM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN EXTENDS INTO THE DISTRICT.
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 WARM TODAY WITH LINGERING DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL SEE SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE CONTAIN PRAIRIE. A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM AROUND INL DOWN TO MOOSE LAKE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH THE WARM FRONT RISING NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. A NORTH-SOUTH ORDAINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
Breezy conditions will develop this afternoon from north to south across western Montana, as an associated cold front sweeps past.
354 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE ISOLATED BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT VERIFICATION SUPPORT THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY GENERAL UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE LEE- SIDE TROUGHING DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS SAGGED INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD SATURDAY.
A DEEPENING CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASK SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRESENTLY MOVING FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SATURDA.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH EVERYONE IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
(700-200 MB) LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 AM DEPICT A DEEP AND WARM MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. BROAD WEAK 1015-1018 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE IMMEDIATE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH MORE OF A COL OVER THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.
242 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO TOP THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOWS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN THIS MORNING THANKS TO DEWPOINTS THAT ARE GRADUALLY CREEPING HIGHER. AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGHER DWPTS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE M/U60S. A COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN SRN QUEBEC WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN SXNS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. DESPITE THE HIGH CAPES.
914 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015 UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM NW AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
930 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED COOL WEATHER THRUOGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND COULD DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY.
WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE EAST. WITH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN OK.
1231 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AFTER 3Z MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH ALABAMA. WE'LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
956 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BE PUSHED ASIDE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL THEN DIP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER SC LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL NC FROM NE TO SW THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER SC TODAY. THEY STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS THAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. UNTIL A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SFC WAVE SETTLES SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. TODAY AND TONIGHT SURFACE RIDGING TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LAYERED DRY/STABLE PROFILE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL TEMPER SLIGHTLY A GENERAL MODERATION OF THE EXISTING COOLER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE.
727 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
949 AM MST WED MAY 20 2015 A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY AS THE OLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL WORK ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW FAILING TO DRIVE THEM OFF THE HILLS AND OVER THE VALLEYS. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING UP FROM THE SUBTROPICS THANKS TO THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND HIGH OFF THE GULF COAST.
735 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY.
627 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY IS LOCATED OVER THE SANDHILLS WHICH PROVIDES SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. KEEPING THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WATCHING SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR SIGNS OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH FROM THE LOW ENTERING CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AS IT IS WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN WYOMING. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. THIS PATTERN LEAVES CWA IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
1011 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1249 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. POLAR RIDGE ANCHORED FM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY XPCD TO DOMINATE THIS PD WHILE PLAINS SW TROUGH SHEARS EWD AND WKNS TDA. GIVEN THE BREATH AND EXTENT OF DRYNESS NOTED WITHIN LL RIDGE AXIS AND DECAYING UPR SPRT THIS AFTN SEE LTL REASON NOT TO REDUCE POPS FURTHER. SLOWLY EXITING EASTERN CANADA HEIGHT ANOMALY AND DIGGING SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND PEAK IN THE MID 80S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OAK RIDGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS MAY OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE TRI-CITIES AND SOUTHWEST VA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 64 76 53 / 10 30 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 60 75 52 / 10 40 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 60 75 50 / 10 40 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 54 72 47 / 10 40 40 20.
717 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1221 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT. AND TRAILING OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO REGION FROM THE NW.
605 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST.
950 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS HAS GIVEN THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT A RUNNING START AND WE HAVE LOADED IN THE ONLY AVAILABLE 12Z DATA.
SKIES ARE SUNNY EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER KEYS. OUR REGION LIES BETWEEN A NEBULOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A DEEP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
1013 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF RAIN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD IN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE TO WARRANT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 447 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT US OUR WEATHER YESTERDAY CURRENTLY OVER NE/SD. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.
WILL SEE HOT TEMPS FOR MID-MAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. THIS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORMS INITIATE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SEND A COUPLE OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO AND THEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT NORTH OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 20/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
A RELAXED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY SETTLE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN FL TODAY. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES WITH WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE HIGHEST ODDS OF RAIN INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. KEEPING THE HIGHEST ODDS OF SHRA/TSRA EAST OF TERMINALS.
635 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 TIGHTER ZONAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING AND DAMPENING LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE. STILL BELIEVE THE ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWER GENERATION. THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY COOL/DRY FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.