Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong westerly flow aloft and the southwest surface breeze will result in highs today slightly warmer than normal. To the south hot high pressure has taken over the Four Corners. Today: Zonal flow aloft along with a meso ridge between one exiting system and another entering one will keep conditions dry and partly cloudy. This should generate a low pressure system over the Montana high plains with a few isolated rain showers and a strong downslope wind by Sunday.
Winds are already gusty in places over parts of the forecast area, and they will continue to ramp up this afternoon with the pressure gradient tightening as the next trough moves onshore this afternoon. The next wave will graze northern Utah tomorrow, pushing a cold front through during the day.
The hires models suggest the low ceilings and drizzle to persist through much of the day with some lifting across the southeast. Leaned closer to the warmer side of the models as the CWA remains in the lower 60s as of 09z and confident temperatures could rise 9-12 degrees today.
1050 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Current forecast continues to be in good shape as it highlights well the cooler temps within the wedge due to increased cloud cover. /issued 734 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016/ Short range models in good agreement with upper level short wave currently moving across the lower MS Valley drifting east and across the forecast area today. This upper disturbance will overrun a cool surface wedge of high pressure nosing in from the northeast and bring mostly cloudy conditions to the forecast area today. The clouds and cool easterly wind flow will warrant leaning toward the cooler side of guidance for highs today. mainly in the lower to mid 70s behind the wedge front.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and southwest Texas provides subsidence across the area. /issued 434 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and the western half of the state will provide subsidence across the CWA today. Subsidence will increase across the area tonight into Sunday as the upper level ridge of high pressure moves eastward across Texas tonight. Will lean towards persistence for temperatures today and Sunday as observed highs the past two days have been slightly warmer than MOS temp guidance.
Winds have already begun to increase across the region as lee troughing deepens along the High Plains and pressure gradient increases across the Central Plains. /Issued 331 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016/ Building upper ridge in the wake of an exiting trof will bring several days of unseasonably warm weather.
Thermal ridge at 700 mb and 850 mb stretched from Sonora Mexico up into western Nebraska and the Dakotas. The highest moisture at 850 mb extended from the Gulf Coast up into Missouri. Surface analysis at 08Z showed modest southerly flow in place across our local area, ahead of a cold front that will push in from the northwest later today. Thinking for Sunday is that increasing southerly flow will provide enough mixing to allow highs to reach the lower 80s in parts of southeast Nebraska, with mid and upper 70s farther north.
High pressure continues to ridge across the area from the NE with generally easterly flow in place and seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures.
1005 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 High pressure over southern New England will move move south of the area Sunday. A cold front is expected to remain north of the region during the first half of the week leading to above average temperatures. High pressure remains centered to the NE over New England this morning, with ridge axis extending southward into the Mid- Atlantic. with a 9 C change in temperature through a moist layer in the lowest 600 ft. High pressure will track south of the Mid Atlantic.
Expect clouds to decrease today as a mid level S/WV trough pushes off to our east. It should be relatively quiet tonight with lows in the lower to mid 40s. The models have been relatively consistent in bringing an H5 trough across the Northern Plains on Sunday, but they have differed in regards to how much moisture this system will have with it. There will also be a trend towards cooler temperatures as a strong upper trough moves through the central United States towards mid week.
The shower activity over our far NW should gradually fade in the early afternoon, as the upper system and trough moves further to the east. Except across far NW Alabama, dry weather otherwise should hold the reminder of the day, with highs warming into the lower 80s in the more sunny spots. Warm mid October lows in the lower 60s are also forecast.
This morning, weak isentropic ascent on the leading edge of a low-level trough is beginning to generate showers over the GOMEX. This slug of moisture/ascent will pivot northwestward through the morning in the southeasterly flow nearer to the ridge center.
Also increased the high temp for the Louisville metro today. With SDF already at 70 degrees this morning, think temps will top out in the low 80s. A couple of upper-level vort centers are moving slowly across the lower Mississippi Valley, and have managed to sling plenty of mostly mid-level clouds into the Ohio Valley, but as has been the case for a couple weeks now, precious little in the way of precipitation. Max temps will be substantially warmer than the last couple of days, with most locations just touching 80, but this is just the beginning of an impressive warming trend. By Sunday upper ridging starts to build from Texas, and SW low-level flow will be well entrenched, keeping conditions dry and allowing highs to climb a couple degrees higher each day.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front moving across the Dakotas. Satellite trends show the low clouds are making progress moving northeast into the area.
With the previously mentioned setup, today will be a little winder and warmer than yesterday. The cold front will stall in IA/NE and then lift north as a warm front Sunday morning; therefore, we will remain sandwiched between the ridge and trough.
Frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River down through northwest Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma at 02z waiting on upper trough currently extending down through central plains to pull east and give front a kick this way. Upper trough sharpens during the day on Thursday with front moving across Middle Tennessee.
Will keep the lows in the upper 20s to low 30s for now as there could be some clearing later tonight but will adjust as needed. Will see a chance for a few light rain or snow showers in Lake of the Woods area as a weak back door cold front clips the FA's far NE zones Thursday morning. Some sun is expected across the southwestern half of the FA where max temps approach 50 for Thursday afternoon, elsewhere clouds will keep temps in the low 40s.
High pressure will be over the area through the rest of the week. High pressure continues to build into the western CONUS this evening.
Everything remains on track for a cold frontal passage around this time tomorrow.
Cold front with scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to make its way through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening and into the overnight hours. The front will slowly sag southeast tonight with the highest chance for storms ahead of the boundary. cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday and Friday. Should be a good night for radiational cooling on Friday morning as ridge axis passes to our north and winds drop off.
We are not seeing lee side pressure falls yet but this will begin in a few hours as Pacific NW ridge axis shifts slowly east. Upper-level ridging builds in tonight, which should help to clear skies. The clear skies should help low temperatures get to the lower to middle 30s across the lower elevations. High temperatures Thursday should rebound to the upper 50s to near 60 across the lower elevations. High temperatures should be a bit higher than Thursday's readings, in the lower to middle 60s over the lower elevations.
1000 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Latest upper level analysis shows a long wave trough over the central CONUS. Within the trough are a few smaller scale features. One of these short wave troughs was moving into Central Nebraska. Another trough was moving into Nebraska from the west. Ahead of this trough showers were beginning to develop due to the steep lapse rates up to 600mb and the low level moisture moving in from the northwest. A weak cold front will move through beginning in the overnight hours. A weak short wave trough moves through the apex of the initial upper ridge that moves east of the Rockies and across the high plains Thursday night and early Friday.
554 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016 The main concern for the short term period will be low temperatures tonight, which have been inching near subfreezing for many lower valleys for the past few model runs. Dry air will continue to take hold of the area as a ridge of high pressure builds to the west. High pressure will continue to amplify going into the weekend, so benign weather will persist.
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016 /06Z TAFS/ The cold front, currently in our northern counties, will move south across west central Texas tonight, reaching the I-10 corridor around 12Z. /issued 726 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ A disjointed cold front has begun accelerating south through the TX caprock and western Oklahoma towards west central Texas.
With 850mb ridge axis remaining across or west of the CWA in the day, clouds should remain rather abundant. The resultant temperatures will only climb into the lower 50s. Relatively mild pattern across the area Friday through the weekend as ridge in the upper level jet buckles north and low level southerly flow develops across the plains.
Believe the most focused and widespread area on convection will continue to be near the quasi- stationary 850-hPa warm front through the early overnight hours tonight. Maintained locally heavy rainfall mention just shifted the axis a bit further to the north tied to the highest PoPs. Temperatures will be cooler tonight compared to the last several nights but still a bit above normal. High temperatures are only expected to be in the low 60s across the area due to lingering cloud cover and strong CAA at low levels. The northwest flow as well as clearing behind the front will lead to cooler temps Thurs night.
910 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 High pressure will build across the region overnight. The high will move east on Thursday.
606 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016 A cold front will push SE through the state tonight through Thu afternoon. Upper level ridge over the SERN US will start to move eastward as a trof moves into the midsection of the country.
716 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
although areas of 5-10kft cigs should persist and actually expand over much of E TX/SW AR/SE OK after 06Z ahead of a cold front that will begin to approach the region from the NW. The cold front will begin to shift SE across NE TX/SW AR between 09-12Z. with the higher gusts expected over E TX/extreme SW AR/Wrn LA.
A strong short wave trough will dive southeast across the forecast area this evening through tomorrow morning. This system will bring another cold front as well as plenty of forcing for ascent. The missing ingredient is low level moisture, but it appears that the lift will be strong enough to overcome the low level dry air and produce scattered showers moving northwest to southeast across the forecast area between mainly 10 PM and 7 AM. A few sprinkles may linger in the east after sunrise tomorrow but expect clouds and winds to gradually diminish through the day with highs making it into the lower 60s. Weak ridge of high pressure moves east-southeastward across eastern KS Thursday night with cool lows around 40 degrees.
906 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 The cold front was over the northwestern part of the state at 9 pm. A ridge of high pressure at the surface stretched across the northern Gulf of Mexico into SE Texas. Showers will persist for much of the morning as the pre-frontal trough moves across the region with the actual front crossing the region during the mid afternoon.
The cold front by Thursday morning will still be in southeastern Missouri but there will be enough of a weak pre-frontal trough and moisture influx to help develop a few showers, especially in NW Alabama. The highest chances for strong storms will be Huntsville west and before about 21-23z. Behind the front, temps will drop quickly with lows Thursday night dropping into the lower 50s. Mostly clear skies and northerly winds will allow temps to finally drop below normal into the upper 30s and the lower 40s. For reference, normal overnight lows for this week are in the upper 40s, while the normal highs are in the lower 70s.
914 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Clearing skies and diminishing winds should allow for freezing temperatures overnight. Dewpoints should should stay in the lower and mid 20s F. Thursday's highs look to be 1-5 C warmer than this afternoon's highs. A building upper level ridge starting Thursday night will bring NW flow over the state on Friday as the jet moves north. As the ridge moves further east over CO the flow will become more westerly.
Thereafter, mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of scattered showers that will primarily affect the northern TAF sites Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening as a cold front progresses south across the forecast area.
Cold front is still expected to cross the region later in the afternoon with the drier air pushing in. Cold front was moving through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The front is expected to reach the forecast area by late Thursday afternoon while a prefrontal trough moves into the region earlier in the morning. Cooler and drier air will quickly move into the area Thursday night. Convection will increase over the coastal waters in advance of the prefrontal trough that moves into the region Thursday morning The winds will shift to the northeast Thursday with the passage of the prefrontal trough. The cooler air will arrive with the front Thursday evening.
Moderating winds are expected over the next few periods as high pressure weakens across the Southeast and the western North Atlantic.
Frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River down through northwest Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma at 02z waiting on upper trough currently extending down through central plains to pull east and give front a kick this way. Upper trough sharpens during the day on Thursday with front moving across Middle Tennessee. Frontal system gets kicked eastward on Thursday as upper trough pushes this way.
The terminal that would likely be impacted to the greatest degree would be cha which will be closest to the cold frontal boundary around 22-23z where there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
726 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016 /00Z TAFS/ A disjointed cold front has begun accelerating south through the TX caprock and western Oklahoma towards west central Texas.
/This evening through Thursday/ A quiet night is in store across the forecast area with high pressure building in from the northwest. Thick high clouds early tonight will begin to clear out late, and modest north northwest breezes will push cooler air into Iowa with temperatures dipping into the mid 30s across the north.
A cold front will continue to push southward this evening.
The front has pushed farther north than expected today, and subsequently the 12Z models and later runs of the HRRR are slower to bring the cold front back through the area. However, there will be little recovery Thursday, so it will feel drastically cooler with highs in the 60s, clouds and gusty northwest winds.
A warming and drying trend will continue across our entire region through Thursday as high pressure remains over California and light offshore flow continues.
Weak high pressure ridge just now entering far western MT will move east of the Continental Divide tonight, bringing mostly clear skies into Thurs morning. But the ridge doesn't hang around very long, with leading edge of moisture from the next Pacific trof beginning to spread mid- and high-level cloud cover over us by midday tomorrow. The mid-level winds then gradually dissipate Fri morning as the Pacific trof heads downstream, leaving a pattern of dry, westerly flow aloft through Fri evening.
Breezy east canyon winds will occur overnight in the Albuquerque metro area as the back door cold front pushes westward. Overnight lows will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler, with freezing to near freezing numbers favoring areas north of the I-40 corridor. Cooler temperatures will continue Thursday but a warming trend Friday into the weekend will rebound temperatures to above normal readings.
Deep layer ridging will keep skies most clear through tonight. After near record-breaking temperatures this afternoon, overnight lows should only drop into the lower 60s across most inland areas.
Temperatures remain above the norm today, and that will remain the case for tonight and into Thursday before initial surge of cooler and drier air in the wake of front overspreads the region. Friday and the weekend looking dry and notably cooler as a 1025 mb high drops south into the southern plains. Moisture will remain confined to mainly the low levels through much of the week with rain chances remaining limited. A strong cold front will advance across the northwest gulf late Thursday afternoon and through the evening hours.
High resolution models suggest this boundary will lift slightly northward tonight in response to a sfc wave of low pressure as it continues to develop over the Ozarks. This low should be between SDF and CVG by dawn Thursday and will pull a cold frontal boundary through our area as it continues to track up the Ohio Valley. Behind the front temperatures will take a slow but steady drive southward as much cooler air filters into the area late Thursday and Thursday night. There is good model agreement that at 12Z Friday the cold front will be well southeast of the area, with the axis of the mid level trough poised to move across the area during the day. Any lingering showers will be diminishing on Friday as the trough passes to our east.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is moving eastward across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is moving eastward across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Models also are in great agreement on forecast highs for Thursday, mainly in the lower to middle 60s, west to southeast respectively. This cooler airmass should set up a much cooler night Thursday night with drier air making near freezing temperatures in the west by Friday morning a reasonable assumption. Another warming trend develops immediately by late week as upper ridge sets in again.
Showers will persist for much of the morning as the pre-frontal trough moves across the region with the actual front crossing the region during the mid afternoon. /ISSUED 906 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/ The cold front was over the northwestern part of the state at 9 pm. A ridge of high pressure at the surface stretched across the northern Gulf of Mexico into SE Texas. Showers will persist for much of the morning as the pre-frontal trough moves across the region with the actual front crossing the region during the mid afternoon.
Cold front continue to make slow but steady progress southeastward with convection remaining in its vicinity.
1013 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 High pressure remains the dominant influence over the region for one more night. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 84 57 69 / 10 50 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 83 54 60 / 0 40 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 62 82 55 63 / 0 50 90 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 81 54 57 / 0 40 80 80.
1022 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
1101 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 A weak and diffuse cold front will move through area tonight. But cooler air will build southward into the area through the day such that temperatures will be a bit below normal with highs in the lower to middle 60s. The high pressure associated with this cooler air will help keep temperatures cool through Friday. As the high shifts to the east, winds will swing back to the south and allow for temperatures to warm up closer to or above normal for the weekend.
A long wave ridge is currently moving through the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will break to the east of the area this evening, but as it does, it will push a weak warm front north through the Medford CWA through this evening.
The low levels have also dried some since this morning pushing PW values to 1.
As of 2340 UTC, a sharp cold front was located from near a Vernon, TX, to Norman, OK to Tulsa, OK line. The cold front is currently located across Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and The Texas Panhandle. 2 PM temperature readings were in the mid to upper 80s in North and Central Texas, dropped to the low 80s near Childress, and were already in the 60s in Amarillo and Dalhart. With the cold front moving into the area tonight, the 90s will go away for a while at least. Over the next seven days, the cold front and associated rain chances are the main forecast challenge.
Friday, high pressure will rule and temperatures will recover a little but will remain near normal.
652 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Ridge beginning to build in from the west and skies have cleared quickly in our west as we move past sunset. Attention will then turn to wind as lee side trof deepens in central MT. Upper-level ridging builds in tonight, which should help to clear skies. The clear skies should help low temperatures get to the lower to middle 30s across the lower elevations. High temperatures Thursday should rebound to the upper 50s to near 60 across the lower elevations. High temperatures should be a bit higher than Thursday's readings, in the lower to middle 60s over the lower elevations.
Clouds associated with a weak warm front in Oregon will spread into SW Idaho overnight. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer. Gradual warming through Friday as north Pacific upper ridge shifts inland. Weak warm front Thursday night will spread clouds as far south as the Snake Basin.
Tonight and Thursday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front moving southeast from Red Wing to Rhinelander early this afternoon. The cold front will be exiting eastern WI during the evening. Colder lows with a slight north wind into the low 30s north to low 40s south. A large scale trough will be moving into the western Great Lakes above a chilly airmass with brisk northwest winds. As a result, temps will be cooler over the north, only into the low to mid 40s. Highs over eastern WI should reach into the lower 50s.
/issued 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/ An unseasonably strong upper level ridge of high pressure that is bringing the very warm and humid weather conditions to the Mid South this afternoon will break down later tonight into Thursday. An amplifying upper level trough digging across the central Plains tonight will rotate through the region on Thursday along with the passage of a surface cold front. A quick shot of cool and dry air can be expected on Friday and Friday night as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. The upper trough will move quickly east over the weekend with rising mid level heights.
1203 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 High pressure will build across the region overnight. The high will move east on Thursday.
Dry conditions will prevail across western Kansas through Thursday night as a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moves eastward across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the period. Although a northwest flow aloft will strengthen across the high plains today, a fairly dry air mass will void precip chances across the region through tonight. Considering the drier and cooler air mass filtering southward into western Kansas behind the advancing cold front, look for highs only up into the 70s(F) this afternoon. Another warming trend develops immediately by late week as upper ridge sets in again.