Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A pocket of somewhat higher instability has developed over south central MO where sfc temperatures have risen into the low-mid 80s. Helicity may be enhanced by west- east warm front over central/east central MO. In general, better precip chances will then shift north of the area for a bit as an upper level ridge works it's way over the region Fri-Sat-Sun. Active weather then may occur again by Tue-Wed as the upper pattern amplifies as a ridge builds over Rockies and we are under upper level nw flow.
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THIS AREA. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
A WEAK TROUGH AND THE ALSO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT HAS SERVED TO GENERATE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. BUT THE LOW LAYERS ARE VERY DRY AND THE RADAR ECHOES ARE OFTEN WEAK AND PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
/ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN HIGH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AFTER DARK AND THIS MAY HELP THE MCS TO PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN DUE EAST WHICH RESULTED IN THE NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO FEEL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PULL IN SOME LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AS WELL AS ANY REMNANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION A BIT THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MAY HELP TO PUSH CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE WORKING NEWD INTO EASTERN AZ AND ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO.
920 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST N OF THE FL PANHANDLE WITH A SECONDARY AXIS DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATLC RIDGE POSITIONED JUST N OF THE FL PANHANDLE.
WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES TAKING AIM AT THE CNTRL GULF REGION COUPLED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WELL ENTRENCHED AT THE SFC. LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GULF REGION BY FRI. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY WWD OVER THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION THAT THE LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING AT IS THE PROB FOR UPPER DISTURBANCES TO BEGIN TRAVERSING SEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT. WHAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS MON INTO TUE. ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS ENERGY/UPPER LOW DIVING SWD INTO THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION.
1142 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD CONTINUES WITH QUIET WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. POST-TROUGH TONIGHT.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
Convection persisted over the Davis Mountains this evening, in addition to other portions of the higher terrain.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA LEADING TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE ANTICIPATE TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.
629 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT TO BE GENERALLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WAA RETURNING. PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE FINALLY BREAKS WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC.
WHERE LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S. THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAS REASSERTED ITSELF TODAY, PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST A BIT FARTHER AWAY, ENABLING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND KEEPING THE RAIN AWAY. LOUIS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT RUNNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SLIPPING INTO WESTERN KY OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AND THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEAK TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM PINE RIDGE TO WINNER. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL SHIFT EAST AS UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS CALIFORNIA. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
654 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SOUTHEASTERN U. BASED HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ FORECAST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO. UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST FOR SUN INTO MON. THE GFS DIGS THIS ENERGY QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS. SO ANTICIPATING IFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE N GULF. WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST. /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH FORECAST AREA ON THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST SIDE OF TUTT LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
743 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MONTGOMERY STREAMFUCTION PLOTS SUGGEST FLOW ALONG THIS SURFACE SHOULD LIKEWISE ASCEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WARM FRONT TRAILS THE SLUG OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FRIES STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARDS THE REGION WILL HELP SHIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARDS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AMID MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF INDIANA. AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MID TO LATE EVENING. AS A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK TO THE LOW WOULD BRING THE HEAVY RAIN FURTHER NORTH. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
739 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS MORE EVIDENT IN THE 00Z SOUNDING.
THIS LOW WAS MOVING TO THE ENE. NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. STRETCHED FROM THE LOW TO THE EAST TO CARBONDALE IL. FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WAS FROM THE EAST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THE REST OF TODAY. HIRES CAMS HAVE THE LOW AND BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WHILE TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WELL AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 95 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 90 71 90 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 91 71 90 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 88 67 86 / 20 10 30 40.
/ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/ LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SIMILAR REGIME ON TAP AS BROAD RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGER MECHANISMS KEEP THE AREA IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN. AND ANY WEAK LEE TROUGH PRESENT. TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WARMER WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. 31 /ISSUED 419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/ THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A 594DM RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FROM TEXAS THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA.
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DEEPER MARINE LAYER TODAY ALONG WITH A MODERATE FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST HAS LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SPOTS IN OUR CWA. SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE PLUS THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW MODELS CONTINUE TO HIT AT SOME CONVECTION FIRING UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SWITCHES TO FIRST A BAGGY TROF FOLLOWED BY A LONGWAVE TROF ALONG THE COAST.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR JOHNSON MESA AND SOUTH TO NEAR TUCUMCARI. HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGHER POPS FATHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
APPEARS SFC GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS THE MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS. FOR TOMORROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THAT WILL MOVE FLOW MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY BEFORE GOING BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND SOUTHWESTERLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL HEATING AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
WE ALSO INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AS IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH BELOW 82-83F OUTSIDE OF RAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 90S AT THIS HOUR.
732 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INCH CLOSER.
500 MB RIDGING NOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX INTO THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST TOWARDS THE TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE WARMER HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS. FURTHER WEST A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WHICH WILL IN TURN MAINTAIN A PRETTY DECENT SURFACE PGF OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST VSBL SATL IMAGERY AND TCEQ AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HAZE FROM AFRICAN DUST BLOWING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN HAZY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AIR QUALITY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER THE LOWER TX MARINE AREAS.
THE PATTERN AT 500 MB SHOULD FEATURE A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
930 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME TSTRMS REFIRING LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITIES GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH WEAK RIDGING PASSING ACROSS THE AREA.
1025 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS SCT/BKN CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SLIP TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
741 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
631 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH 75 TO 80 SOUTH.
Scattered showers are noted father to the west, but widespread activity with any significant accumulations looks to be ending for today as the trough exits. The lowest record low high temperature for the entire month of July is 64 degrees, which occurred July 6th 1979.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO THIN OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS SPREADING NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. COLD FRONT MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN TO PIERRE SD.
BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN.
IFR CIGS AND PATCHY BR ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER HILL COUNTRY TERRAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST.
1139 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT TO BE GENERALLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WAA RETURNING. PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE FINALLY BREAKS WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC.
738 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/ LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SIMILAR REGIME ON TAP AS BROAD RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGER MECHANISMS KEEP THE AREA IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN. AND ANY WEAK LEE TROUGH PRESENT. TEMPS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WARMER WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. 31 /ISSUED 419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/ THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A 594DM RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FROM TEXAS THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
1032 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOWER MOISTURE VALUES REPRESENT A 24-HR DEWPOINT DECREASE OF 15-20F COMPARED TO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE YESTERDAY EVENING. IR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH FORECAST AREA ON THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST SIDE OF TUTT LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
843 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN TIGHT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN LIGHT OF NWD REACH OF LEAD PCPN SHIELD HAVE AGAIN BUMPED POPS HIGHER ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT W/LIKELY HEAVY RAIN ALG/SWD OF THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR THROUGH NRN IN/NW OH. W/RESIDUAL POST FNTL TROUGHING KEEPING CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME DZ/--RA INTACT UNTIL ERLY AFTN ESP EAST.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SLIP TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
908 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK LOOK AT ISENTROPIC DATA INDICATED THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MONTGOMERY STREAMFUCTION PLOTS SUGGEST FLOW ALONG THIS SURFACE SHOULD LIKEWISE ASCEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WARM FRONT TRAILS THE SLUG OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. FRIES STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARDS THE REGION WILL HELP SHIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARDS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AMID MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
630 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD CONTINUES WITH QUIET WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. POST-TROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND.
LATEST SREF/RAP40 SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURES RIDGES ACROSS FL TO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AFTER THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION COLLAPSES.
657 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 THE WARM FRONT IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE LINE. /ISSUED 440 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE STATE AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 739 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS MORE EVIDENT IN THE 00Z SOUNDING.
1051 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015 ONE LONE SHOWER FORMED ON THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WHILE TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WELL AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
738 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG IT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEAK TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM PINE RIDGE TO WINNER. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL SHIFT EAST AS UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS CALIFORNIA. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SOUTHEASTERN U. BASED HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FAR NORTHEAST MTNS STILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING TO THE FREEZING MARK. WESTERN PORTION WILL LIKELY SEE MUCH MORE SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
1054 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY. CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH WILL KEEP HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 30S AND 40S.
806 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
817 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
1026 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
619 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 18Z SUNDAY.
LEFT IN CHC POPS OVER HIGHEST RIDGES AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO COUNTIES. LEFT IN POPS IN RIDGES DUE TO THE CONTINUED. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT WITH VALUES FORECAST TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIGHT SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE SUNDAY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SET OFF THESE STORMS.