Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although a severe storm with quarter sized hail and gusts to 60 mph can not be ruled out over the southern James River Valley, the higher end severe weather threat has shifted to almost completely east of the state. For Tuesday night through the end of the work week, the closed upper low is expected to stall somewhere over the northern Manitoba / Ontario region, keeping the forecast area in northwest flow aloft and leading to seasonably cool temperatures.
This is likely to continue for much of the day, as those same onshore winds persist until the upper level trough passes overhead late today and tonight. We'll then see a transition to a warming and drying trend under high pressure through the next several days.
Tonight into Tuesday, mid and upper level ridging strengthens slightly as the center of the 500 mb ridge drifts westward. Tuesday afternoon highs should be a degree or two warmer than Monday, in the 86-92 F range. Generally speaking, the longwave trough that has been positioned over the west and central US will be moving to south-central Canada as a closed low.
1254 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Warmer weather is expected to start off the new week with high temperatures nearing 90 degrees both today and Tuesday. Shower and storm chances hold off until Tuesday evening as a cold front works into the area. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs peaking in the upper 80s to near 90. The strong low over the central Plains will lift into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and then eventually into ONtario on Tuesday with an associated cold front stretched southward from there.
200 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
122 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
142 PM PDT Mon May 30 2022 A slight warming trend begins today and persists through midweek as a weak upper ridge approaches.
The upper level ridge over the Appalachians begins to expand southwestward over eastern Texas through Tuesday, but a weak upper trough will remain over our forecast area. Surface ridging over the western Atlantic will also nudge into the region, causing a southeasterly surface flow to persist.
At the same time an upper level low continues to churn over the FL/GA line with spokes of energy pinwheeling around this low.
(This evening through Tuesday) A broad longwave trough will continue to keep west Texas under southwest flow aloft. A surface cold front will drop into the Panhandle late tonight, while a low-level jet will ramp up as well.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure remains anchored near the East Coast both at the surface and aloft. This means a persistent warm, moist flow across Middle Tennessee that is advecting ever-warmer air into the region. Temperatures will be warmer today than yesterday and even warmer tomorrow.
The upper low should lift through the Dakotas and into srn Saskatchewan and Manitoba by Tuesday morning. A second upper low west of the system this afternoon will swing through the cntl Rockies Tuesday and open up Tuesday night across WY.
Overnight temps will be quite warm with most areas in the lower 70s. Temps tomorrow night will be slightly cooler, but with high dewpoint air and ongoing rain or recent rain, muggy conditions are expected.
1222 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure will keep dry and warm weather in our region through Tuesday night.
Stacked low moves in central Canada as forecasted with a weak upper ridge moving into the area from the west, providing the area with warm and dry conditions for the remainder of the week.
1132 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022 Current surface map places stalled front over the eastern Dakotas with pressure falling across the high plains in response to upper low moving across the central Rockies.
228 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
Currently, an upper level ridge remains in place over much of the eastern U.
Main upper low has pushed well east but a weaker one has held back over southern idaho and kept showers continuing throughout much of southeast Idaho. The trend will continue tonight and track of the precipitation should be toward the southeast as second upper low dips south into northeast Nevada overnight. Presence of upper low shifting east into Utah Tuesday will keep the threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms going through Tuesday with best chance in the eastern mountains but at least a slight chance everywhere.
236 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 A cool surface airmass over the Northern Plains will drive a cold front across central Kansas late Today and This Evening, impinging on much higher theta-e air over the lower plains of central Kansas. Severe convection is expected develop along the front from Iowa southwest into the lower Missouri valley and then into central Kansas. The cold front will likely be just to the immediate southeast of the DDC forecast area by late Tuesday afternoon and evening, limiting the area for potential severe weather.
Tomorrow, a ridge of high pressure aloft stretched from central TN southwest toward East TX will limit convective potential across the northern half of our area. South of the ridge, however, an area of low pressure drifting west along the Gulf Coast may help add a little extra lift in the more humid and unstable air closer to the coast.
137 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure surface and aloft brings dry and warmer weather for Memorial Day and Tuesday. A cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms for midweek. Ample high pressure at the surface and loft will bring dry weather through tonight. Highs on Tuesday will be hot, similar than this afternoon with temperatures reaching the low 90s lowlands. Upper level ridging continues to dominate over the eastern CONUS on Tuesday with dry conditions holding steady. Diurnally driven pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms could sprout along the higher terrain and adjacent foothills once convective temperatures are reached.
1215 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The mid to upper level subtropical ridge will remain over Texas through the short term period. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place across South Central Texas.
A weak ridge starts to build over the region tonight, slowly dampening the instability that is causing showers this afternoon. Overall, the global pattern has a very large scale trough over the region, so as the ridge builds in superimposed over that trough, the 500 mb heights will remain near or below average for this time of year. That means that even though we have a ridge building in, it still won't warm up much above average for this time of year.
TFJ Stacked low pressure will lift from the central Rockies across the Dakotas today. A bigger impact will be the winds, with gradient tightening as the low pressure deepens. High pressure and an upper ridge will begin building into the northern Rockies by midweek for warming temperatures and dry weather.
Very complex forecast over the next 18-24 hours, with multiple waves of storms possibly rotating northward across the forecast area through this afternoon/early evening, as an intensifying mid-upper level trough lifts from Nebraska into South Dakota. However, as storms approaching a northward moving warm front, or develop along an eastward moving dry line, enhanced low level shear may favor a more concentrated tornadic potential. Tonight, the surface/upper low lift north of the area, with cooler westerly flow taking over. Cooler air will dominate through midweek as the upper low lifts into Canada and a cool front pushes southeast through the region on Tuesday.
Lighter winds return on Tuesday, along with warming temperatures, as high pressure builds into the region for much of the week. For the weekend, another trough approaches which will drop temperatures but increase winds leading to another round of fire weather concerns. The trough moves out of the area late Tuesday, with a ridge of high pressure building in right behind it.
With some exceptions, general short term models like HRRR/earlier RAP, develop convection along the dry-line(DL)/cold frontal merger in northeast Kansas southward along the DL toward KICT in the 22-00z time frame. That said, chances look to ramp up a bit more later in the evening/overnight across central Kansas, where cold front will overtake the retreating DL. Main challenge later Tuesday is position of the effective cold front which may become quasi-stationary for a time from east central into south central Kansas.
The highest confidence is in damaging wind. Given the rare parameter space of CAPE/Shear, the potential certainly exists for a few hour window of supercells with very strong mesocyclone capable of producing strong tornadoes. Some of the higher end Midwest tornado outbreaks have more of westerly jet, which seems to favor more discrete cells. Farther east, a line of storms should develop along a cold front in central Minnesota and move into western Minnesota. Again, depending on the storm mode, could have a tornadic threat, although the higher likelihood is damaging wind and hail. Cooler weather will settle in the rest of the week.
136 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm and dry weather will persist today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered to the southeast.
Showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase late this week as the high breaks down and a cold front approaches the area. Gradually strengthening mid-level ridge overhead today and tonight will slowly starting increasing the heat. Sea breeze moves well inland today and may be able to tap into a pocket of elevated moisture rotating around the southern side of the mid-level ridge. Best chance for this would be across inland SC with both the sea breeze and a weak Piedmont trough providing some convergence. The mid-level ridge and associated subsidence will work against convection.
Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to be on the low percentage side again on Tuesday, as an elongated upper level ridge begins to build to our north.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain anchored over the eastern U. By Tuesday night, a small chance for showers and thunderstorms enters the forecast for northern and western sections of the area, mainly in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, as a cold front approaches.
257 PM MDT Mon May 30 2022 Satellite imagery showed our upper low was pushing into western Nebraska and southern SOuth Dakota this afternoon, but stretched back through southern Wyoming. The higher precipitation rates have fallen along and near the north/east faces of our mountains and foothills. Deep upslope flow will continue in our region along with some isentropic lift as the upper low tracks northeast across the Dakotas this evening. Heavy snow over the high country, generally above 7500 ft, appears on track. As the upper low proceeds through the into the Dakotas.
CMiller (Issued 330 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022) Today through Tuesday Night: It remains fairly breezy this morning despite being fairly capped and breezy conditions are expected to continue today given strong low pressure to the west causing a strong pressure gradient across the western Great Lakes. Into Tuesday a strong low pressure system pushing northeast into Ontario will drag a cold front slowly through the region.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The hot and fair weather pattern with breezy south to southeasterly winds will continue into midweek as 500 mb ridging slides westward and strengthens across central Texas into and through Tuesday.
These storms should be once again mostly shallow with minimal accumulation since we will still have dry air and high pressure aloft and will move through pretty quickly.
Upstream convective development is now focused along the cold front in the form of a cluster of storms firing over the Eastern Dakotas and parts of Minnesota. 850 mb theta E ridging and deep layer shear (well in line with SPC's latest Day 1 Convective Outlook). There may be some showers and a few storms that pop up beforehand ahead of the aforementioned cold front, but any stronger storms will be later. Winds will veer slowly throughout the day Tuesday, from the south- southwest to the west by midnight behind the aforementioned cold front.
As it does, a cold front will slide southward into Oklahoma later tonight and slow as it loses southward momentum.
Dewpoints have also been rather tricky with the drier airmass behind the cold front but there is still some lingering moisture from storms and right in the vicinity of the cold front. Aloft the main low continues to work its way northeast as a secondary lobe of energy off to the west works its way east and the overall large trof begins to lift. Expect cooler temps tomorrow with highs in the 70s and continued southwest flow aloft.
1052 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Warmer weather is expected to start off the new week with high temperatures nearing 90 degrees both today and Tuesday. Shower and storm chances hold off until Tuesday evening as a cold front works into the area. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs peaking in the upper 80s to near 90. The strong low over the central Plains will lift into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and then eventually into ONtario on Tuesday with an associated cold front stretched southward from there.
The swath was parallel to and north of an upper trough across OR, northern NV, and southern WY, and maintained by moisture from the east. On Tuesday the pcpn will break up as the trough in NV shifts east. This will allow warmer and drier weather in from the west.
301 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Recent large upper level ridge of high pressure that has brought each dry, breezy and warm day over the holiday weekend is expected to remain in place tonight and Tuesday. With the ridge in place we expect another rainfree day, with plenty of sunshine.
346 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 A backdoor cold front moves southwest through the state tonight into Tuesday morning.
943 AM PDT Mon May 30 2022 A slight warming trend begins today and persists through midweek as a weak upper ridge approaches.
Later tonight, isolated storms could develop along a temporarily stalling cold front entering far northwestern OK but most of our area should remain free of precip. By tomorrow afternoon, the aforementioned cold front will nudge southward a bit and low level moisture will continue to deepen ahead of it.
245 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday Night): A 500 mb ridge draped over northeastern Mexico into the Appalachians continues to dominate the weather pattern through the period. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday, due to increased cloud cover and rain chances, with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with a few 100s out in Zapata and Starr counties.
Lighter winds return on Tuesday, along with warming temperatures, as high pressure builds into the region for much of the week. The bulk of the energy with the longwave trough over the western US begins to move eastward today into the Central Plains. As a result, winds lighten up a bit (though still remain breezy) along with slightly cooler temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal. As the trough begins to lift northward on Tuesday, temperatures begin to rise again by a few degrees over today and winds remain light with locally breezy conditions over the high terrain.
The lingering isolated showers on the eastern plains will be ending by 6 pm or before, while scattered to numerous snow showers in the high country will take a few more hours to taper off/end this evening thanks to orographic support.
1218 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows a large cutoff off over the Great Basin, with upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows will only drop off into the lower to mid 70s.
Ridging will continue to impact the region, with mostly dry and warm conditions expected. Pairing above with expected strong surface heating this afternoon, went and added some slight chance PoPs to account for any isolated shower, mainly across the higher elevations of far NE TN and SW VA, for this afternoon. High pressure continues to bring mostly clear and dry weather. Discussion: Upper ridge axis will continue to strengthen across the area with 500mb heights increasing to 588 dam this afternoon. With the strengthening ridge, temperatures will climb above average.
345 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Strong high pressure ridging is positioned over much of the eastern CONUS, with the axis of the ridge to the immediate east of Georgia. At the surface, broad high pressure is currently positioned just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 60s across the north and central Georgia.
Our main weather influence is a stacked ridge over the Mid Atlantic.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge over the eastern third of the country this morning will move slowly east today as an upper low moves from the Rockies into the Plains. The upper low will move northeast into the upper Midwest tonight and Tuesday. A cold front in the Plains will move to northwest Arkansas by late Tuesday night.
Persistence forecast for Tuesday resulting in above normal temperatures with some isolated rain showers possible, mainly across the higher terrain. Ridging will continue to control the weather across the region as high temperatures remain above normal.
332 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 A beautiful evening will cap off Memorial Day Weekend across the region, despite warmer temperatures and slightly higher humidity. High pressure will remain overhead through Tuesday, with hot temperatures expected across the area.
Itâs hard to imagine a scenario where nothing occurs will all the dynamic forcing at play â negatively tilted upper level trough, stacked low, triple point, strong LLJ, strong shear, high buoyancy, and PWATs of 1. The rest of the forecast turns to high pressure and northwesterly flow for the most part. Severe storm potential decreases after midnight, but some showers still will float through with the low. However, an area of low pressure and frontal boundary will combine to produce strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into the overnight hours which may cause high winds and hail. As winds switch to southwest behind a low pressure system tonight, conditions will become hazardous to small craft.
Upper level low over Oregon will continue to move southeast today and tonight.
1229 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Rest of Today) A warm Memorial Day will unfold this afternoon as a stacked ridge over the Mid Atlantic maintains influence over the Southeast. With southerly flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection was causing a cumulostratus deck to overspread northwest Alabama.
highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid and upper 70s.
The trend of slightly warmer overnights will continue into tonight as the airmass continues to become more humid and dew points rise into the mid 60s. Much of the same is expected for Tuesday as central Indiana remains sandwiched between a deep low pressure system that is moving from Minnesota into southern Canada and broad ridging across the East Coast. With the trough moving further away, expect that winds will only gust to 20mph vs the 30mph winds that were seen today. Chances for rain arrive late Tuesday night as a surface cold front associated with the exiting trough will near the area.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain through much of the week.
733 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure will keep dry and warm weather in our region through Tuesday night.
655 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
957 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Southerly winds in the low levels and high pres aloft will maintain tranquil but warm and humid conditions overnight. A few showers or storms may be possible acrs the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Acadiana region with daytime heating tomorrow aftn but otherwise benign weather is expected to prevail.
Another area of storms is expected to become possible after 9 PM as the cold front catches up to the dryline in far southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Another round of storms is likely later tonight along a cold front that will move from northwest to southeast across the area and eventually stall out across east central Kansas.
1024 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
Behind the cold front moving across Central Kansas, there is a lingering boundary extending from Cheyenne Wells, CO to Goodland, KS to McCook, NE. The area will be under southwest flow aloft as an upper low moves over Wyoming, N.
The CWA is behind the low, with low level NNE flow becoming northerly over the last hour or so. Low level trough has set up across northeast WY through southwest SD, toward the center of the low near south central SD. Showers will decrease later tonight into Tuesday, as the low pulls away from the CWA.
619 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A broad longwave trough will continue to keep west Texas under southwest flow aloft. A surface cold front will drop into the Panhandle late tonight, while a low-level jet will ramp up as well.
Cannot entirely rule out a few isolated strong to severe cells wrapping around back behind with the occluded warm front, but tornado threat has largely waned behind this initial line of storms as sfc winds swing southwest. Spotty rain showers are likely to continue in southeast and south central SD overnight as the upper low continues to wrap weak disturbances around amidst lingering stratus. Given increased cloudiness, maintained a warmer solution for lows tonight as temperatures drop into the 50s. Additionally breezy west winds continue, lending to a notably cooler day. On Tuesday night the upper trough axis swings through and the upper low wraps up near Hudson Bay and drier northwest flow aloft prevails mid week.
Models hint at some shower development early tomorrow morning in the southeast once again with additional showers and storms affecting the Highway 84 corridor and south through the afternoon tomorrow. Tomorrow, a ridge of high pressure aloft stretched from central TN southwest toward East TX will limit convective potential across the northern half of our area. South of the ridge, however, an area of low pressure drifting west along the Gulf Coast may help add a little extra lift in the more humid and unstable air closer to the coast.
/Issued 345 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022/ Strong high pressure ridging is positioned over much of the eastern CONUS, with the axis of the ridge to the immediate east of Georgia. At the surface, broad high pressure is currently positioned just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 60s across the north and central Georgia.
Continued surface ridging will keep winds, outside of convection, less than 10kts.
332 PM PDT Mon May 30 2022 Cool northwest breeze continues today, although a degree or two warmer than yesterday.
652 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The hot and fair weather pattern with breezy south to southeasterly winds will continue into midweek as 500 mb ridging slides westward and strengthens across central Texas into and through Tuesday.
Cooler weather is then expected during the second half of the week. Northwest flow aloft was occurring across the EKA CWA this afternoon in response to a large trough over the Intermountain West/Great Plains, and an upstream ridge over the NERN PAC. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge is forecast to advance eastward across the West Coast during the next 24-48 hours.
Temps will be a couple of degrees warmer in the morning due to a subtle increase in boundary layer moisture today, with most of the area experiencing lows in the m-u 60s.