Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a mid/upper level low was slowly lifting northeast across Missouri with a trailing upper level trof axis to the southwest across Eastern Oklahoma. Scattered showers and a few storms were lifting northward across far Northwest Arkansas with the movement of the low. additional showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this afternoon across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas as a vort max within the base of the mid/upper level trof axis over Northeast Texas was making its way east northeast. Ample amounts of moisture lifting within the low level mean flow over the top of a surface boundary near the Red River was allowing for continued redevelopment and efficient rain producing cells. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday as the vort max/MCV exits the region and the upper level trof axis remains over the region.
Remnants of this low persist over the region through midweek before being absorbed by the main flow late week.
We should then once again destabilize through the afternoon as temperatures climb into the low to possible mid 80s through the day.
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms as weak troughing persists inland. A cold front approaches the area late in the week, pushing through this weekend. Lows in the low 70s, mid to low 70s for OBX. A min in tsra possible Tue, as ridging builds into ENC, with both NAM and ECM indicating sparse precip covg. Temps a bit warmer, with highs 85-90.
overnight lows will end up at least 10 degrees warmer than normal. -Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this week No change to previous thinking that the upper low moving slowly northeast from Missouri and the tropical air mass ahead of it will provide a daily scattering of showers and tstms.
As evidenced by today's rain rates, any convection on Tue likely will be capable of elevated rain rates, given that the strongest CAPE will be found below the freezing level, leading to warm-rain processes becoming dominant. Similar weather conditions are expected again on Thu as the upper- level low transitions towards the lower Great Lakes.
Upper low off the coast Tuesday with southerly flow over the region.
821 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms as weak troughing persists inland. A cold front approaches the area late in the week, pushing through this weekend. Lows in the low 70s, mid to low 70s for OBX. PWats remain elevated up around 2 inches with the Bermuda High elongating over the Carolinas providing onshore flow in the low levels and moisture streaming in from the Gulf in the midlevels. Less midlevel dynamical support with high pressure building across eastern CONUS and tamer instability limit intensity of convection that does occur. A min in tsra possible Tue, as ridging builds into ENC, with both NAM and ECM indicating sparse precip covg. Temps a bit warmer, with highs 85-90.
The main severe threat will be with the warm front lifting northward and the severe clusters to the west of our CWA should maintain a severe threat as they remain rooted along this boundary following 0-6km mean winds to the northeast. The warm front continues to lift back northward across South Dakota late this afternoon. Therefore, the activity may become elevated during the mid to late evening, north of the surface warm front. A supply of cooler (relatively) and drier air will filter in later Fri and could well persist through the weekend.
Rain chances will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. Troughing will develop over the region late this week supporting higher PoPs once again.
Only rain chances (20%) for the overnight period will be found along the Space and Treasure Coasts where there is sufficient moisture and 10-15 kt of southeast winds in the low-levels to potentially bring a few showers onshore from the Atlantic. Onshore flow and considerable high cloudiness will keep temperatures in the low-mid 70s for most, but a few rural spots may still reach the upper 60s across Okeechobee/Osceola counties. The western Atlantic high pressure ridge will remain the dominant weather feature this week, initially located north of the waters keeping light to occasionally moderate SE/ESE flow in place, 10-15 knots. The ridge axis will slip southward across the waters reaching south Florida late in the week which will veer the winds out of the south Fri-Sat with a SE sea breeze near the coast both afternoons.
Mins tonight will be in the m60s in the highest of elevations, but u60s-l70s everywhere else. However, even modest heating of this high-pwat air mass should result in afternoon capes of 1000-2000 J/kg per latest HREF and ECENS plumes.
1043 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure remains large and in charge over the region. Aloft, deep layer ridging is extending from the Western Atlantic over the southeast coast and that, combined with drier air that moved into the area today, has limited most shower activity. The aforementioned deep layer ridging and drier air will remain in place overnight and will continue to limit rainfall activity, so have kept PoPs at 10%. Temperatures will hover around 80 degrees tonight, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. From synopsis, A high pressure cell centered over the western North Atlantic will dominate the local weather pattern for most of this week. Wind speeds will trend downward beginning mid week, as the high pressure cell weakens, and the associated ridge shifts southward across the Florida Peninsula.
520 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary low pressure over western SD, with northward moving warm front generally across far northern SD right now. Cool front extends west-southwest from the low through east central WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge just to the east of the region, with southwesterly flow aloft from the Great Basin into the Northern Plains. A very warm and occasionally active pattern looks in store for much of the week as the area stays on the west side of a fairly persistent ridge centered to the east of the region.
A very warm and occasionally active pattern looks in store for much of the week as the area stays on the west side of a fairly persistent ridge centered to the east of the region.
602 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level trough has moved into central Missouri and will continue to slowly lift northeastward into central Illinois by Tuesday night. Byrd The majority of the deterministic and ensemble models, continue to have the upper level trough slowly weaken as it moves towards the lower Great Lakes region. In the meantime, the upper level ridge builds into the region with warmer and drier air gradually advecting in.
A broad upper level trough currently situated across central Missouri continues to slowly circulate and move to the northeast. Currently expecting little to no shear in the low to mid levels with 0-6km bulk shear vectors around 10-215kts along with marginal ML CAPE that maxes out at around 1000 J/kg. By 09Z, model guidance is suggesting very strong lift in the low to mid levels with PWATS nearly 2 inches. Models continue to suggest a weak upper low lingering over northern Indiana and northern Illinois.
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper low will continue to lift off to the northeast tonight. For Tuesday, could see some lingering precip along the Red River of south central and southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours with a dry and warmer afternoon. Thus will begin to transition to a much warmer and drier period.
Model solutions especially with the CAMS have initiation along the Laramie Range and adjacent foothills eventually moving off into the High Plains initially discrete but eventually merging with possible MCS like structure across the Panhandle in the early evening.
/Issued 301 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ High pressure will remain anchored off the SE coast of the US through the period. this will allow the weather pattern to be primarily controlled by a westward stretching ridge extending from the Bermuda High over the Atlantic Ocean.
1051 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 High pressure will remain south of the region tonight. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday.
Thus, will keep PoPs on the low side tonight with better chances by late tomorrow morning as the upper low re-forms and moves closer. A broad upper level trough currently situated across central Missouri continues to slowly circulate and move to the northeast. Currently expecting little to no shear in the low to mid levels with 0-6km bulk shear vectors around 10-215kts along with marginal ML CAPE that maxes out at around 1000 J/kg. By 09Z, model guidance is suggesting very strong lift in the low to mid levels with PWATS nearly 2 inches. Models continue to suggest a weak upper low lingering over northern Indiana and northern Illinois.
Expect this area to slowly diminish overnight but will maintain a slight chance most locations given the upper trough to our west and persistent moist and elevated instability. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 84 70 86 69 / 30 60 20 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 84 70 86 69 / 40 60 20 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 69 84 68 84 68 / 50 60 20 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 65 85 67 / 20 60 20 50 40.
Training looks like a good bet along the slow northward moving warm front. This is a result of a cold front from yesterday that is now retrograding northward as a warm front. Still, with plenty of dry air in the low-levels, damaging winds gusts, along with some large hail, will be possible.
Otherwise, Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy tonight, with lows only falling into the low and middle 70s.
905 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Widespread coverage of showers and storms across the Lower Mississippi River Valley is associated with an upper closed low, and there is another area of numerous showers and storms to the south across central and southern Alabama. The upr trough to the west will provide the primary synoptic scale forcing over the near term as it moves slowly eastward but tends to become less coherent over the OH/TN Valley regions. Active weather will continue into the first half of the weekend, as continued southwest Gulf moisture fetch persists in combination with a series of minor disturbances associated with a weak mid-level trough.
743 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Aviation -Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this week -Locally heavy rainfall possible daily but no drought-buster -Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this week No change to previous thinking that the upper low moving slowly northeast from Missouri and the tropical air mass ahead of it will provide a daily scattering of showers and tstms.
With the ridge overhead Tue there will deep mixing and very warm 7h temps thus dry. An upper lvl ridge will build over West Texas Tue bringing scorching temperatures to the area. The upper lvl ridge will enforce a strong LLTR overhead, which will support multiple days of triple digit heat. The ridge will strength Thu/Fri making those the hottest days of the year so far. An upper lvl trough will dive into NorCal Thu tilting the ridge in a negative orientation but the ridge will remain over the Southern Plains until a secondary trough will likely flatten the ridge out by Sat.
Models remain fairly consistent, keeping our central plains upper low the dominant feature really through the entire week. The low will make its way into the OH valley tomorrow, then possibly transitions into a deep trough, which will remain over the eastern US into the weekend. Latest ECM however favors keeping this upper low closed off.
Diurnally modulated thunderstorms on the difluent northeast quadrant of an upper low moving slowly eastward into southwest IL continue to diminish this evening. Aloft, water vapor and upper air data showed a large closed low centered over MO, with its influence felt from TX northeast into the Great Lakes, where scattered convection was occurring this afternoon. Tuesday, the upper low wobbles into eastern MO while slowly filling. The closer proximity of the low and associated large scale ascent, acting the tropical airmass, should lead to an uptick in convective coverage from today. Highs again in the low/mid 80s depending on cloud cover.
Overnight lows will be seasonably warm in the low to mid 70s.
153 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A cold front will push south through Maine today and tonight.
Upper-level flow remains very weak with ridging overhead while a weak upper low to our southeast slowly meanders northward under this ridge across a large portion of the corn-belt. Closer to our region, a few weak showers/thunderstorms are possible across far southwest Iowa this afternoon as a weak vort lobe rotates around the loosely organized upper low to our southeast.
Shear will be weak across western SD, but around 30 kts along the trough.
A slow-moving low pressure system to our west (over MO) and an Atlantic ridge will continue to produce a southerly flow across the TN Valley today, which will continue to feed Gulf moisture to the area. As a result, the forecast will follow a diurnal trend that favors the higher terrain for PoPs today.
306 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Midlevel clouds were scattered across the area this morning as the upper level low slowly churned north into the area. Temps at 2am ranged from the upper 60s to the low 70s as low level moisture increased across the area. Weak surface flow and this upper level low are expected to drive the weather in the short term.
1037 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Warm front has tended to stall along the I-94 corridor with slow moving clusters propagating along instability axis west to east, with updrafts rooted along this front ingesting additional helicity (effective helicity values around 200 m2/s2) and occasionally showing signs of mesocyclone development.
- Scattered locally heavy convection most of this week As we have been writing about for several days now, we have a largely stalled upper low near us.
The Bermuda ridge axis is now draped north of the area, across the Southeast. An inhibiting factor to any convection will continue to be drier air in the mid-levels supplied by a modest 500mb ridge, but an isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible.
258 AM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021 An upper low over northern Arizona early this morning will weaken and move into northern Wyoming and southern Montana this afternoon and evening.
Any convection today will be capable of elevated rain rates, given that the strongest CAPE will be found below the freezing level, leading to warm-rain processes becoming dominant. Similar weather conditions are expected again on Thu as the upper- level low transitions towards the lower Great Lakes.
Widespread coverage of showers and storms across the Lower Mississippi River Valley is associated with an upper closed low, and there is another area of numerous showers and storms to the south across central and southern Alabama. The upr trough to the west will provide the primary synoptic scale forcing over the near term as it moves slowly eastward but tends to become less coherent over the OH/TN Valley regions. Active weather will continue into the first half of the weekend, as continued southwest Gulf moisture fetch persists in combination with a series of minor disturbances associated with a weak mid-level trough.
Strong south/southeasterly flow today will see low level moisture ramping up across the region, with sfc dewpoints rising well into the 60s most areas behind a warm front lifting north across the region. Kicker will be a strong embedded S/WV ejecting north across the High Plains region this afternoon and evening.
Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s. 08z/3am water vapor imagery shows an elongated upper trough extending from the southern Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi River Valley. Highs will reach the lower to middle 80s.
253 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 The upper low continues to hang around the region centered over central Arkansas with some scattered showers lifting from the south into southern and western Middle Tennessee.
The deep upper closed low and trough will open and expand to the east through the short term.
312 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a low in the mid Mississippi Valley. There is also a ridge across the ern half of the U. The ridge remains stationary and the upper Great Lakes remains on the northern edge of it. Upper ridging with associated anticyclonic flow will continue over Upper Michigan through this week.
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A rather warm and moist airmass will remain in place over the local area as an upper low continues to very slowly move northeastward out of the southern Plains.
A weakening upper level low will slowly lift northward from the Missouri Valley into the Midwest with the trough axis southward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the lower 70s.
With the upper level-low lifting northward the higher chances will be further north with each MCS that moves through. The mean mid-level trough will remain in the Mississippi River Delta region while this upper-low will dissipate in the Great Lakes Region.
442 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a low in the mid Mississippi Valley. There is also a ridge across the ern half of the U. The ridge remains stationary and the upper Great Lakes remains on the northern edge of it.
Any convection today will be capable of producing heavy downpours, as the strongest CAPE will be found below the freezing level, leading to warm-rain processes becoming dominant.
Did keep things quiet through this afternoon as the upper ridge builds into the region.
The latest model run of the HRRR is picking up on this feature, but do not anticipate that it is modeling the slightly cooler temperatures aloft to sustain updrafts for convection.
This will be the focal point for additional convection overnight ahead of increasing divergence ahead of the H250 trough over Cntrl OK/TX.
(Today and tonight) After days of the pseudo-closed low dominating the weather picture across the state, the upper-level pattern is finally starting to shift, but perhaps not the way most folks would like. After a round of thunderstorms moves through the Big Country early this morning, a 590dam ridge at 500mb, currently over northern Mexico, will start building in across west Texas. Given the fact that temperatures were a few degrees higher yesterday than model guidance, we have opted for the warmer solutions, especially across the western and central portions of our area. Speaking of dewpoints, these should also remain high, in the low 70s today and tonight, making for humid and unpleasant conditions across the area.
A backdoor cold front will drop south across the region overnight. Despite cold frontal passage overnight, temperatures on Wed should still range through the 80s as we see clearing skies behind the fropa during the afternoon.
1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Upper level trough has moved into central Missouri and will continue to slowly lift northeastward into central Illinois by Tuesday night. Byrd The majority of the deterministic and ensemble models, continue to have the upper level trough slowly weaken as it moves towards the lower Great Lakes region. In the meantime, the upper level ridge builds into the region with warmer and drier air gradually advecting in.
315 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A weak elongated upper level ridge is extending from the western Caribbean Sea across Florida and up the eastern seaboard today, while a weak upper level trough digs from the southern plains into the western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to extend from the Atlantic into the southeastern US today and tonight, with relatively dry air continuing to spread across much of the Florida Peninsula.
333 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will continue offshore, while troughing persists inland through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week and moves through on the weekend. PWats remain elevated up around 2 inches with the Bermuda High elongating over the Carolinas providing onshore flow in the low levels and moisture streaming in from the Gulf in the midlevels. Less midlevel dynamical support with high pressure building across eastern CONUS and not as much instability as yesterday, therefore thundershowers will not be as widespread. Cont warm and muggy with lows above climo in the low/mid 70s.
257 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 An upper level low pressure system over Texas will slowly meander into the western Gulf over the next few days.
Afternoon temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 80s with showers and non-severe thunderstorms which will continue into the evening. This is thanks to the upper low that is now stuck under a broad upper level ridge. THrough today and tonight the low will move very little as is slowly begins to fill.
In addition, a large vertically-stacked upper level low remains located over Missouri.
The center of upper level low pressure filled considerably in the last 6 hours so large scale forcing today will be very weak and subtle.
It is quite evident that the large subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic continues to have a significant influence in our weather conditions. Temperatures in the island communities are in the lower 80s and dew point values are in the lower 70s. The previously mentioned broad area of high pressure enveloping most of the Atlantic Ocean, and extending to the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States, will remain the dominant feature of interest through at least this week. A mid-latitude trough will move equatorward over the northwest Atlantic over the next few days, causing the subtropical ridge to flatten out and weaken.
311 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 It feels a little like Groundhog Day, with the repetitious effects of the drift of the upper Low, and the inhale/exhale feature of daily daytime and nighttime pops.
321 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Water vapor imagery shows what is left of the upper low tracking over northern AR/southern MO. Remains good model agreement in a sharp upper trough situated off of the Pacific Northwest coast with this feature moving into the Northern Intermountain/Central Great Basin by Wed night. At the same time, upper ridging will expand across the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. This feature will allow a weak cold front to push through the Plains during the day Fri. GFS and ECMWF agree on an expansive area of upper ridging building for the weekend across Northern Mex into the southern and central Plains. Also, cannot rule out a few hit-or-miss showers/storms the next 24 hours, mainly across southeast Kansas, in vicinity of a meandering mid-level trough amidst a moist and weakly capped airmass.
1052 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper low will continue to lift off to the northeast tonight. For Tuesday, could see some lingering precip along the Red River of south central and southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours with a dry and warmer afternoon. Thus will begin to transition to a much warmer and drier period.
321 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Aside from a bit of showers and storms north of our area, latest radar imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region, with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 70s. Given that strong ridging remains in place, have afternoon highs once again climbing into the mid 90s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
We will see dew points increase northward today as 850 mb warm front will lift thru all the fcst area today.