Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong deep subsidence associated with departure of mid- level short wave over the lower Lakes and building upper ridge over the upper Mississippi Valley was producing nearly cloudless skies in stable post-sunset air mass, though the influx of cooler (+4 C at 700 mb) was producing lake-induced unstable boundary layer conditions over the mid-70 degree lake water. The weather for Friday looks great, with another day in the low to mid 70s. The quiet weather will persist through the weekend, with temperatures starting out below seasonal normal levels, with lows generally in the lower to middle 50s, though the Chicago urban heat island will remain a bit warmer with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Westerly winds aloft will produce warmer drier weather during the holiday weekend.
An upper level ridge will sit above the Plains today through tonight with an upper level long wave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Towards the surface, lee troughing will intensify leading to winds from the south southeast. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach around 80 degrees with lows tonight falling into the low to mid 60s.
256 AM PDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Low pressure over the West will bring periods of breezy afternoon winds and cooler conditions for the holiday weekend.
1209 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 The cold front will continue to push south through the state overnight. A cold front is moving south through the state this Thu afternoon. the cold front will have dropped south of all terminals.
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 It will be dry with pleasant temperatures into Friday as an upper level ridge reaches across the plains and up into the Great Lakes.
The upper level ridge axis over the Dakota/MN border will serve as the delineation between showers and thunderstorms to the west, and sunny skies and dry weather to the east.
254 AM PDT FRI SEP 2 2016 A trough of low pressure moving inland through the western states will bring stronger onshore flow and dry southwest flow aloft with cooling into Labor Day.
Otherwise, upper trough will track into the northern Rockies today.
For the remainder of this morning, VFR conditions are expected as light northerly winds in the lower levels prevail. Upper air analysis this morning showed a weak ridge extending from Texas to the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure extended down from the northeast and winds were generally light from the northeast. The upper level ridge will remain in place during this period.
An upper trough will bring showery weather today with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The low cigs may linger into the late morning hours if not early afternoon, especially across central OK.
Dry air is filtering in through the lower troposphere this morning, resulting in zero returns on the KBYX radar.
434 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Weak cold front which backdoored across area with dewpoints falling into the upper 60s just north of I-20 attm.
412 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain seasonably cool weather through the weekend. Dry and comfortable today as a strong ridge builds over the region. Ridge remains in place through the weekend, in response to a more easterly track of the remnants of Hermine. Dry conditions will prevail through the period as strong high pressure remains in control. Building high pressure will keep general VFR with north to northeast winds under 10 KTs through tonight.
South to southeast winds will return tomorrow as stronger WSW mid to upper flow accompanies a long wave trough moving over the W CONUS. A few showers and storms will be possible within the mid level thetae ridge axis through Sun AM on the NW fringe of the mid to upper ridge.
252 AM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the nrn plains/upper midwest with strong upper trof pushing into the pac nw. trof extends through ern MT/ern WY/ern CO. With mlcape values of 1000-2000J/KG along/east of the sfc trof and ample deep layer shear.
239 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across our area.
/Issued 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016/ Upper level high over the central plains will move southeast which will allow the upper level trough moving into the pacific northwest to take up more real-estate over the northwest quarter of the country as we go through this forecast. Moisture and several upper level short wave troughs will move through the southwest flow aloft across the panhandles during this forecast.
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Upper level high over the central plains will move southeast which will allow the upper level trough moving into the pacific northwest to take up more real-estate over the northwest quarter of the country as we go through this forecast. Moisture and several upper level short wave troughs will move through the southwest flow aloft across the panhandles during this forecast.
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes region through Labor Day. A mid/upper level trough axis will pivot down across the upper Ohio Valley through this afternoon.
Today: The main upper trough will lift northward and then northeast of the area through the day. Scattered showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, will be possible later in the day as the trough pushes through.
600 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure will crest over the region on Today. Low pressure will approach from the west tonight into Monday. Strong high pressure will crest over the region today then move to the east tonight. At the same time an area of low pressure will be moving northeast into the Great Lakes. Pcpn wl gradually wind down late Mon ngt but expect pcpn to continue acrs the far north in wrap-arnd cyclonic flow with upr-lvl trof lurking nr the region.
220 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Upper level trough/500 mb low spinning over the mid mississippi river valley early this morning, per latest water vapor satellite imagery. The trough will continue to lift northeast today-tonight, with the low filling as it moves over the eastern great lakes. The GFS has the same trough, but holds it farther south, with little if any pcpn threat locally. A swath of pcpn would accompany the trough. Rather, it eventually merges it with another trough moving out of the southwest that would bring another round of pcpn Mon (ala what the EC expects for Thu-Fri).
As of 20Z, an area of low pressure over the western Dakotas is bringing breezy southerly winds and clearing skies to the western half of the CWA. With winds becoming light again tonight, the low stratus and fog will likely push back westward, potentially reaching the Missouri River valley by 6Z Sunday. Like today, the low stratus and fog may take several hours to burn off.
Models in good agreement that an upper low will move slowly northeast across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley tonight. A 35 to 40 knot low level jet will pump gulf moisture and instability northward across the Ohio Valley ahead of an associated slow moving cold front. This should result in widespread showers with the best chances overnight per the High Resolution Rapid Refresh.
404 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance Chilly and damp with occasional rain and drizzle today, then a little warmer for the upcoming work week. A series of upper level cyclones embedded within the southern stream will slowly cross the country. In the big picture, remnants of weakening upper low will head northeast toward Lake Michigan today.
trapped moisture beneath weak high pressure and modest dry air aloft should produce the fog. The forcing will translate across the Rockies and then fall apart as the main upper low forms Sunday across the Srn Plains.
321 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure will crest over the region on Today. Low pressure will approach from the west tonight into Monday. Strong high pressure will crest over the region today then move to the east tonight. At the same time an area of low pressure will be moving northeast into the Great Lakes. Pcpn wl gradually wind down late Mon ngt but expect pcpn to continue acrs the far north in wrap-arnd cyclonic flow with upr-lvl trof lurking nr the region.
Given that the low levels look to be dry this will most likely be just virga. As the ridging continues Monday temperatures will again get into the mid 60s, for much of the lower elevations.
328 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 The cutoff low which has been the prominent feature affecting the local area over the last couple of days will finally be pushed northeastward as an upper level trough advects overhead this evening.
/issued 818 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Early evening satellite imagery is showing a broad cyclone over the central Mississippi River Valley, dragging a cold front through the northern Gulf Coast. High pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to ridge into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, as a weak front washes out over the northeastern Gulf on Sunday.
A trough axis is moving across the region early this morning with broad upper divergence helping to produce a band of showers. Behind this axis, the upper trough along with marginal instability will produce scattered showers and afternoon thunder.
429 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will develop today into tonight as low pressure moves to Lake Michigan.
1040 PM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure over the Inland Northwest will bring dry weather overnight into Sunday morning.
/Issued 313 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Cold front is currently poised to cross the Mississippi River this afternoon.
Today: The main upper trough will lift northward and then northeast of the area through the day. Scattered showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, will be possible later in the day as the trough pushes through. Upper trough over the Plains will move toward the Midwestern states tonight and toward the Ohio Valley on Monday.
This morning: A narrow corridor of light rain persists across parts of Southwest Minnesota, tied to vorticity axis on the northwestern quadrant of larger upper low centered over western Illinois. Elsewhere, stratus will remain, with visibilities dipping below one mile at times along the Buffalo Ridge into mid morning.
A continuous feed of dry low-level air on easterly winds from Ontario will allow for surface wet-bulb temps to remain below freezing across the interior through the night. Along the shores, especially along Lake MI, temps remaining at or slightly above freezing will limit icing. With temps rising above freezing by the afternoon across the entire area, the freezing rain threat will end. Once the upper level low moves east of the Great Lakes early in the extended the weather looks pretty seasonable and tranquil for much of the upcoming week. With upper ridging building across the area by midweek persisting into the later part of the work week any cold air will remain well north of the Upper Lakes in Canada.
415 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 (Today and Tonight) The surface map this morning indicates a warm front along a Del Rio to College Station line.
High pressure will return briefly today, followed by another storm system for early in the upcoming week.
In the upper levels the trough will move out this morning allowing a ridge to build in from the south. At the surface a low pressure system parked over Illinois will slowly drift northeast. The associated cold front will remain well to our northwest and southerly flow will continue. A few showers may linger this morning as the trough exits the region.
147 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday as the area of low pressure approaches from the west.
321 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Canadian high pressure will build into our area today.
This low cloud should gradually erode with a partly to mostly sunny and warmer day forthcoming with highs in the 70s. At the surface, low pressure over northeast NM should strengthen and slide east into western OK by this afternoon. A dryline will arc to the south and east of the low across central OK and down into central TX. The main question for our area of responsibility in eastern OK will be how long into the evening that these discrete cells can remain rooted close to the surface, and that hinges on how far north the warm front lifts up into our area.
A well developed cut off low will move toward the Great Lakes today and largely abandon its trailing cold front over the central Gulf of Mexico. The system's dampening mid/upper level trof axis will pass overhead the Peninsula this afternoon and do little more than briefly weaken the mean layer ridging that has been prevalent for the past several days.
404 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A cold front passes today with showers and storms expected.
328 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week.
638 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A cold front passes today with showers and thunderstorms expected.
Upper trof swinging through Montana today, pushing a weak front into North Dakota this morning. Slight ridge builds over the state tonight with another upper trof moving onshore from the Pacific Ocean.
The back edge of the area of rain with embedded thunder is now approaching I-65, with the highest rain chances across the east through midnight. Will leave low rain chances across the area overnight as weak mid level energy rounding the larger closed low moves across the area.
Some of the high-res convective models suggest best location/timing would be near hwy 81 from I-40 south between 4 and 5 pm.
443 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure over the North Country this morning will give way to unsettled and warmer weather for tonight and Monday as developing low pressure over the central U. pushes a warm front northward through the region.
Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 60s. Chances for a few SCT showers will continue through the evening as upper low slowly drifts into the region with a very moist airmass (850mb dewpoints near 10C on 12Z KILX sounding) advected into place. However, center of upper low is still over Missouri and subtle downstream ridging is preventing most, if not all, UVM/precip, especially in our eastern zones. Suspect there will be a break in steadier precip from west to east by tomorrow afternoon as center of dampening/opening upper low moves overhead and slightly drier air wraps around. Extreme, marine layer-driven temp gradient today will be washed out by tomorrow with highs for most of the CWA in the low to mid 60s.
Much of this appears to not be reaching the ground with the MRMS Reflectivity at Lowest Altitude showing far fewer returns in the lower levels. At the upper levels, a west coast trough will keep the state in southwest flow through the short term. Many of the High Resolution models are showing fog from east of the Missouri River valley to the James River valley. Over the James River valley, forecast soundings show a very brief opportunity of a light mixture of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet Sunday morning.
333 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A vertically stacked low pressure system was located along the IA/MO border early this morning. A mid level deformation zone extends northward from the low, stretching from southwest MN through the west metro to northern WI. Farther east, there will be minor short waves rotating northwestward around the upper low aiding in bands of light rain across the eastern FA.
Stacked low pressure was centered over northeast Missouri early this morning, with a long band of showers stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. The showers are located just ahead of the negatively-tilted trough, which will continue to swing into the region this morning. There is also a fair amount of shear (25 kts) in the lowest 1 km, and effective SRH peaks around 200 m2/s2 during the afternoon and evening.
658 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will develop today into tonight as low pressure moves to Lake Michigan.
650 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Monday.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 70s.
Upper trof over the Great Basin is projected to translate eastward across southern/central CO, closing off across south central CO by 12Z Sun. As the upper low closes off, a deformation band develops along the I- 25 corridor Sunday morning which quickly shifts eastward across the plains during the afternoon. The main question with this system is how intense precipitation rates will be and how much snow will accumulate across the higher elevations. H7 winds pull around to the NNE briefly Sunday morning as the upper low center shifts into the southeast corner of the state, providing an added upslope component along the NE facing slopes of the Wets and Sangres to help enhance QPF and snowfall.
218 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017 08z surface analysis had low over central CO with cold front into western SD. Water vapour had upper trough from MT into CO, moving east. Tonight through Monday afternoon, upper ridge builds into the northern plains ahead of another upper trough moving from the west coast into the Rockies. Monday night, upper trough splits with several pieces of energy moving into the plains states.
610 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week.
414 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Main upper level low early this morning is south of Pueblo nr the CO- NM border based on GOES16 imagery. This low is fcst to move into far sern CO by midday and then into cntrl KS by early this evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The next in a series of short waves will move east into the High Plains today, with underlying surface pressure falls serving to tighten the gradient and produce breezy to windy conditions. The plains mid level trough will move rapidly east today, with high pressure filling in behind it under an advancing short wave ridge.
VFR conditions are forecast before thunderstorm chances increase with the next approaching upper low.
243 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A cold front passes today with showers and storms expected.
A broad trough of low pressure is poised to move ashore in the Pacific Northwest today. The leading edge of the trough and associated moisture and cloud cover is currently moving overhead in western Washington. The trough is expected to move into Washington and Oregon today, and across Idaho overnight and into Sunday. A warm front associated with the trough will push south to north across the area today with precipitation favoring northern locations and higher terrain. Significant precipitation is anticipated when the systems cold front moves through late today and overnight. Forecast models are in good agreement that a consolidated band of precipitation will accompany the cold front, along with dropping snow levels. This will allow for more whitening of the higher terrain of both SE Oregon and SW and Central Idaho.
A warm front extended to the east across IL. To the north and west of this low, areas of dense fog have been reported. This low is forecast to saunter north and east through the day today and serve as the focus for the short term weather once again. As the H5 wave ejects into the area, ridging will keep temperatures warmer this evening and overnight. This low is forecast to bring light rain over nearly all of the CWA now, and with the stratiform nature of the light rain, pops are now notably higher.
In addition, the associated cold front will make its way across the forecast area today with northwest to north winds in its wake, likely reaching into the breezy category at times.
327 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Monday.
618 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Showers will expand across the area today as an upper low moves into the region. Given the low track northwest of the area, favor a mixing out of the shallow cold layer before cooler air spreads back into the area behind the low tonight. The next in a series of upper level systems will eject northeast out of the main upper trof and spread rain back across the area by late Monday. In the interim between the second and third systems, very cool air will spread across the area during the middle of the week as a large high pressure area builds south out of Canada.
651 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure remains offshore the southeast coast through Monday.
440 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A weakening stacked low pressure system is centered in the vicinity of Quincy, IL and Burlington, IA early this morning. The mid/upper level portion of the system has a trough axis extending southeast to the Gulf of Mexico. As the trough moves northeast, it is interacting with a moist flow of air off the Gulf, resulting in a large area of showers.
301 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Upper level trough moving into northern New Mexico will be the weather maker for the short term period. the warm front and associated surface moisture does not look to get into southwest MO until Sunday evening. Highs will range from around 60 in the Lake of the Ozarks region to near 70 in extreme southwest Missouri closer to the warm front.
426 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Showers will expand across the area today as an upper low moves into the region. Given the low track northwest of the area, favor a mixing out of the shallow cold layer before cooler air spreads back into the area behind the low tonight. The next in a series of upper level systems will eject northeast out of the main upper trof and spread rain back across the area by late Monday. In the interim between the second and third systems, very cool air will spread across the area during the middle of the week as a large high pressure area builds south out of Canada.
The main upper trough will lift northward and then northeast of the area through the day. Scattered showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, will be possible later in the day as the trough pushes through. Upper trough over the Plains will move toward the Midwestern states tonight and toward the Ohio Valley on Monday.
357 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A cold front is dropping into the Mid Atlantic and will stall over the area today. This will move back to the north as a warm front Monday.
246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Slow moving mid-level cyclone that we have been dealing with for a couple of days is moving through eastern MO early this morning per WV imagery. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from western MN into central KS. Weak flow within this ridge axis will allow for the low clouds currently in place across the CWA to remain through the day today.
555 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 The cutoff low which has been the prominent feature affecting the local area over the last couple of days will finally be pushed northeastward as an upper level trough advects overhead this evening.
South southeast return flow will become reestablished today as low pressure develops over the southern High Plains. Southerly flow will dominate through the period with weak high pressure moving east along the northern Gulf Coast tonight. /issued 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Zonal flow will continue locally during the next 36 hours as a fast moving secondary H5 trough sweeps across the central plains. What's left of a weak cold front stalled across the northern ranchlands, bringing light north winds, but drier air remained further north.
Cold front will move southeast across the area overnight with redevelopment of MFVR ceilings. Some of the high-res convective models suggest best location/timing would be near hwy 81 from I-40 south between 4 and 5 pm.
The next weak cold front moves into the North Bay Sunday afternoon with light rain spreading southward through the remainder of the Bay Area and Central Coast Sunday evening before ending by sunrise Monday morning. Cool and breezy Monday afternoon, then high pressure builds with a warming and drying trend through midweek. Likely cooler again later in the week with breezy conditions.