Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
244 PM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Riding high pressure across the region this afternoon allowing for above normal daytime highs into the 70s and 80s as a diurnal cumulus field present over the southern half of the forecast area. Ridging will hold again Friday with higher daytime temperatures versus today into the low 90s into the Panhandle and pockets of SE WY across the high plains while low to middle 80s possible across much of southeastern WY.
Mid-level trough over the lower Ohio Valley early this afternoon will continue to move slowly to the northeast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will gradually taper off from west to east tonight, as the mid level trough will move east of the area and towards eastern New York and western New England. The passing of the mid-level trough will combine with a possible lake breeze boundary though to present the chance for more showers or isolated thunderstorms across the Souther Tier and Finger Lakes region.
1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Significant upper-level ridging will continue to evolve across the western and central US through Friday.
At the surface, a weak stationary boundary is draped just north of I-10, while aloft we remain on the eastern edge of a broad trough. Tomorrow, the wet pattern continues as we remain on the east side of the upper trough and what remains of the surface boundary continues to meander nearby. Coverage may be a bit greater than today, which should help to hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s, which is at least the one upside of this rainy pattern.
This area is also where the highest PWAT is noted with LAPS showing between 1. At the surface, a weak stationary boundary is draped just north of I-10, while aloft we remain on the eastern edge of a broad trough. Tomorrow, the wet pattern continues as we remain on the east side of the upper trough and what remains of the surface boundary continues to meander nearby. Coverage may be a bit greater than today, which should help to hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s, which is at least the one upside of this rainy pattern.
Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds Possible Late Friday An upper ridge over the area is flattening and will be expanding over the western half of the country Friday. At the surface, low pressure is developing over Saskatchewan by tonight and will move across Manitoba Friday. A trailing cold front looks to move south across the CWA early in the day then destabilization ignites scattered thunderstorms over SW and central Montana early in the afternoon.
A decrease in shower coverage is expected overnight as the low ejects.
Temperatures will cool down Friday and into the weekend as low pressure moves in over the Inland Northwest bringing highs down into the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will begin to cool Friday to around seasonal normals as a broad area of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest late Friday into the weekend.
The ECMWF/NAM deterministic runs predict increasing upper forcing during the period associated with the approaching upper trough/low.
534 PM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Riding high pressure across the region this afternoon allowing for above normal daytime highs into the 70s and 80s as a diurnal cumulus field present over the southern half of the forecast area. Ridging will hold again Friday with higher daytime temperatures versus today into the low 90s into the Panhandle and pockets of SE WY across the high plains while low to middle 80s possible across much of southeastern WY.
Showers should be over by mid to late evening, with a few lingering showers over the higher terrain near the CO/NM border. It will be rather warm tomorrow and anticipate temps to max out in the lower 90s over the plains along the Ark River with 80s over the remainder of the plains.
Upper level trof moving slowly east across the MS River Valley this afternoon has helped to generate some scattered thunderstorm activity within an area of 2000+ CAPEs. As we do sometimes with upper trofs, we have received an Emergency Management report of a cold air funnel. Rest of the short term looks high and dry with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft.
Another round of convective activity is forecast for Friday afternoon-evening as the ridge over the southwest intensifies.
150 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Low pressure over southwestern Indiana will drift eastward through the day reaching southern Ohio late tonight.
/Issued 410 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/ This afternoon a boundary was positioned from northwest to southeast across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas on the northeastern periphery of a building ridge expanding into the region. The highly unstable conditions will warrant a limited severe potential through this evening with large hail and locally damaging winds being the main threats. additional shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to be possible with the CWA on the northeastern periphery of the ridge. the boundary over the region today should shift northeast as the ridge continues to expand over the region. A limited severe potential may be possible as well Thursday afternoon as warmer temps and humid conditions combine with large amounts of instability over the CWA. With the ridge overhead and a capped atmosphere.
VCT may hang on to the low level stratus through the early afternoon hours. Mid/upr level ridge will remain over the area in the short term resulting in dangerously hot conditions in the western brush country and Rio Grande Plains where heat indices are expected to exceed 110 this afternoon. This ridge will edge slightly westward on Thursday.
With the upper ridge axis building in and warm air advection developing ahead of an approaching wave, southerly flow brings higher dew points into the region.
Have lowered the POP overall, maintaining the highest values in our southeast counties. PWATs hover just under 2 inches and freezing levels remain respectably high at around 14 kft.
349 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Recent water vapor imagery showing the upper ridge axis stretching north-northeast from west Texas to the Dakotas. Slight warming in the low to mid levels yields a warmer day today and heat index values rise in turn to around 100 F. An upper level trough moving northeast into northern California this morning enters the northern High Plains this evening and thunderstorm complexes are likely to form downstream. Soundings continue to show considerable inhibition and a modest low-level jet giving rise to some doubts about its severity and persistence into the ridge axis.
Temperatures in the island communities are in the lower 80s and dew point values are in the lower 70s. The Florida Keys remain in the southwestern periphery of a large subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. However, the influence of this system is diminishing as an upper level trough progresses equatorward over the northwest Atlantic and weakens the western extension of the subtropical ridge.
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 It seems the slow-moving low in our vicinity, and its effects, will be around through tonight, before it starts to lose its identity due to an eastward-expanding ridge over the central CONUS. Still, there will be plenty of low level moisture and instability present, so the mostly diurnal pcpn signal shall continue today and Fri, albeit with the highest PoPs in the eastern counties. Late Sat, a temporary weakness in the building mid level ridge is forecast to approach our region during the hottest afternoon of the next seven days. Expect lows to be in the tepid upper 60s/lower 70s through the short term forecast period, with highs rising through the 80s, peaking in the lower 90s Sat.
Highs will generally range from the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s along the immediate coast.
Thursday, the deep upper trough currently along the West Coast will lift northeast tonight and Thursday, eventually lifting across the Northern and Central Plains Thursday night. Height falls ahead of the upper trough will cause deep low pressure to occur along the High Plains Thursday afternoon. Thursday night, the upper trough will bring a cold front through the the region with severe storms possible across the Dakotas southward into western and north central Nebraska.
However, temperatures are much warmer than anticipated. /Tonight through Thursday Night/ An upper-trough across the Mississippi River Valley to support increased instability across much of Northeast Louisiana, southern Arkansas and portions of southeast Oklahoma overnight. Upper-level trough to move very little through the short-term period, leading to some uncertainty in the forecast beyond 24 hours. However, at this time, expecting somewhat of a drying pattern to set up as upper-ridge nudges eastward. Temperatures through the short term period to range from highs in the lower 90s to lows in the mid 70s.
338 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The unseasonably hot/humid conditions will likely continue for the next several days as upper ridge axis builds over the region from the southwest.
Hot and dry southwest flow will persist through the overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front.
225 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A dry, cooler and less humid day in store, though an isolated shower or storm will still be possible near the NY/PA state line.
122 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A back door cold front passes through the region tonight as high pressure builds from the north. High pressure then pushes off the New England coast on Thursday night.
320 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 High pressure will move down from Canada today and bring dry weather, a good deal of sunshine, and high temperatures right around seasonal normals.
Models are suggesting a squall line to develop along the cold front in Nebraska and quickly sweep southeast through the overnight.
High temperatures will likely be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, and heat index values will be similar to, or slightly higher than yesterday with values into the triple digits almost everywhere across the forecast area and getting to 110 or so in some areas of the west.
The upper level ridge will remain more or less centered over northern Mexico and the Big Bend region through tonight. The latest model guidance shows a nearly carbon copy forecast for the stratus deck, and perhaps maybe a degree or so warmer at 850mb.
The main upper level closed low is centered over OH/WV this morning.
No change was needed for the low forecast about 10 degrees above the average.
Further west, south-central Wisconsin will see another day with highs in the lower 90s. The Canadian is the only model that is showing convection developing along the lake breeze this afternoon, the rest of the high-res and medium range guidance maintain the cap and never fully mix out the warmer air aloft. Better mixing and warmer temperatures will support breaking that cap and being able to freely convection around 18-20Z.
High temperatures should be at least as warm or a little warmer than today. With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices could increase into the 100-105 range during the afternoon hours.
A nearly stationary broad upper low is centered over IL/IN this afternoon. One of these has a weak surface reflection - a trough axis roughly from Evansville to near St. Patchy fog looks possible after midnight as the region sits in broad low level troughing and light ambient winds - with dewpoints in the 70s. Thursday another weak upper low approaches and will likely spark another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Lapse rates steepen slightly as the trough approaches but cloud coverage should still mostly limit instability and pulse severe storm chances. Although forcing from the trough will probably increase coverage across the eastern half of the area in the afternoon.
This may sound like good news but WSW low level flow lifting very moist (PWATs > 2 inches) and unstable (MUCAPE around 2000 j/kg) air over this low level stable airmass will likely produce more showers and thunderstorms across at least parts of N MS after midnight. /issued 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/ The stubborn upper-level trough that has helped bringing copious rainfall to the Mid-South continues to spin overhead this afternoon. Semi-organized convection will rotate around the parent trough, though coverage and intensity are not expected to be on par with what we've been seeing the past few days.
408 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A dry, cooler and less humid day in store, though an isolated shower or storm will still be possible near the NY/PA state line.
1207 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A vigorous upper-level short wave trough is expected to lift north and east from the Great Basin into the central/northern Rocky Mtns on Thursday. Sharp upper-level ridging will contribute to one more very hot & dry day across a large portion of the region in advance of the associated cold front. Two major concerns for Thursday will include the potential for widespread strong winds as well as a few severe thunderstorms along the pre-frontal trough/dryline over our eastern zones.
257 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The forecast is starting to feel like a broken record at this point with the deep trough maintaining its grip over the Midwest and Southeast.
(This evening through Thursday) Increasing temperatures, combined with extremely high dew point temperatures and a recent long stretch of significantly cooler than average daytime temperatures, have prompted us to issue a Heat Advisory for most of our forecast area.
The upper trough that has been responsible for the exceptionally rainy weather the past week will have moved just east of us by late tonight and should result in sufficient upper confluence to somewhat reduce rain chances heading toward Friday. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s F.
A new upper trough will bring additional chances for rain, mainly for Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties this weekend. The highest hourly rates will likely occur in the late afternoon and early evening for Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties.
1028 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania today, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
Focus remains on the approach of a cold front and ongoing convection on Friday.
/Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ The unseasonably hot/humid conditions will likely continue for the next several days as upper ridge axis builds over the region from the southwest.
751 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A dry, cooler and less humid day in store, though an isolated shower or storm will still be possible near the NY/PA state line. On Friday a weak mid-level trough will move across the area with a moist southerly flow developing across southern portions of the cwa.
Cooler today with showers and isolated thunderstorms toward the northern Nevada border. Cooler today with showers and isolated thunderstorms toward the northern Nevada border.
This will fold a portion of the central plains thermal ridge into Lower Michigan for the weekend helping keep temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.
Low level temperatures build northward beneath prominent upper ridge today, with 925mb readings a degree or two either side of 30C supporting highs in the mid to upper 90s.
It seems the slow-moving low in our vicinity, and its effects, will be around through tonight, before it starts to lose its identity due to an eastward-expanding ridge over the central CONUS. Still, there will be plenty of low level moisture and instability present, so the mostly diurnal pcpn signal shall continue today and Fri, albeit with the highest PoPs in the eastern counties. Late Sat, a temporary weakness in the building mid level ridge is forecast to approach our region during the hottest afternoon of the next seven days. Expect lows to be in the tepid upper 60s/lower 70s through the short term forecast period, with highs rising through the 80s, peaking in the lower 90s Sat.
A trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest is causing southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies today. The higher terrain under this band of precipitation could experience up to a foot of new snow. The trough will move over the region throughout the afternoon and evening causing the precipitation to move off to the east. The sky is anticipate to start to clear Thursday night into Friday morning allowing temperatures to drop to freezing or near freezing for many locations throughout the Northern Rockies. Southwesterly flow and weak ridging will become the dominant feature over the region for the next several days.
Cooler today with showers and isolated thunderstorms toward the northern Nevada border.
The short-term forecast will remain rain-free as upper level ridging remains in place across the Southern Plains. Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 90s across the Hill Country and Coastal Plains with temperatures near 100-102 closer to the Rio Grande.
Upper level ridging will remain in control of the region today. More of the same is expected on Friday as ridging maintains it's influence. At this point, still don't have a mention of showers in the grids as moisture remains limited but a developing H5 inverted trough across the southwestern Gulf may be able to provide enough forcing to squeeze out a few showers.
730 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Mid level ridging remains centered in the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. At the surface Atlantic high pressure stretches across Fl and over the Gulf. The mid level ridging will help keep temperatures warm today and also slightly suppress convection. nudging the higher shower/storm coverage inland.
1032 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain across central Florida today, producing a rather light southerly flow across the region. Ridge aloft will remain extended across the state, which will continue to help suppress overall convective development. However, the added moisture and sufficient instability from above normal highs in the low to mid 90s should allow for a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Overall rain chances, however, still remain on the low end around 20-30 percent today. (Previous Discussion) Ridge axis over central Florida sags to near Lake Okeechobee by sunrise Fri.
There will be a brief lull in the precipitation action today before a cold front brings rain to the coast by late evening.
850 mb temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and Caprock RAWs had a high of 103 degrees. /issued 403 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ An upper ridge is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an upper trough over the northwest part of the country. Expect areas east of the dryline to be cooler so have decreased temperatures below the NBM for those locations due to recent trends. Similar conditions will be present on Friday with temperatures maybe a degree or two warmer than today.
/issued 331 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Nearly identical conditions to yesterday expected again today with a ridge of high pressure sitting across northern Mexico to West Texas and persistent southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas. Mid-level low pressure begins to work toward the lower Texas coast from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, with very little change to the persistent pattern to at least start the weekend.
Decided to keep the entire flash flood watch going through 00Z, even though the highest confidence of flash flooding resides southwest of a line from Marianna, Arkansas to Tunica, Mississippi to Oxford, Mississippi.
Showers and thunderstorms are getting an early start this morning as a mid level trough persists across Mississippi, and combines with low level convergence and a moist airmass across the Deep South. Activity will diminish this evening, before another impulse rounding the trough aids in overnight development early Friday morning.
403 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 An upper ridge is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an upper trough over the northwest part of the country. Expect areas east of the dryline to be cooler so have decreased temperatures below the NBM for those locations due to recent trends. Similar conditions will be present on Friday with temperatures maybe a degree or two warmer than today.
PoPs will begin to decrease in coverage on Friday as weak NW flow gets replaced with ridging from the plains.
737 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 High pressure will move down from Canada today and bring dry weather, a good deal of sunshine, and high temperatures right around seasonal normals.
Most model consensus shows storm development in two separate locations around 2 or 3 o'clock this afternoon: 1) along the S-N surface pressure trough and dry slot, and 2) further west, downslope of the higher elevation areas of central Montana. Friday, a cooler, post-frontal, drier environment will be in place with persistent gusty west winds, keeping the need for the current Lake Wind Advisory in place. By Friday night, the main active and forcing mechanisms will be past and calmer conditions will return, allbeit under a building broad ridge of high pressure from the south. After 00Z this evening, a cold front will bring NW winds of 25 kts. The areas of concern are a little tricky, with timing, but our best information places the lowest RH values along the dry slot and surface pressure trough.
Numerous showers/tstms remain possible heading into tonight, as the upper trough axis continues to settle more into the region. Near seasonal temps are also expected into the weekend period, with lows tonight predom in the upper 60s/lower 70s, before temps rebound more into the lower/mid 80s later in the day Fri. Rain chances then look to diminish going into the day Sat, as the upper ridge pattern over the Plains states nudges east and PW values fall closer to 1. Upper level ridging will expand eastward as the trough exits to the southeast. These higher heights and drier conditions will lead to warmer temperatures.
Recent water vapor imagery showing the upper ridge axis stretching north-northeast from west Texas to the Dakotas. Slight warming in the low to mid levels yields a warmer day today and heat index values rise in turn to around 100 F. An upper level trough moving northeast into northern California this morning enters the northern High Plains this evening and thunderstorm complexes are likely to form downstream. Soundings continue to show considerable inhibition and a modest low-level jet giving rise to some doubts about its severity and persistence into the ridge axis. A weak boundary associated with the upper trough drags southeast into eastern Kansas Friday.
The convective complex will top the ridge which will allow a front/outflow to move into the area and be the focus for better convection.
The forecast is starting to feel like a broken record at this point with the deep trough maintaining its grip over the Midwest and Southeast. The large trough axis will finally be kicked east of the area on Friday, so rain chances will start decreasing Friday night.
Low POPs on tap again today as high pressure begins to take control but a shower or two cannot be completely ruled out.
An upper level ridge moves over our area today, which will enhance advection of heat and moisture over the Northland. Experimental Wet Bulb Globe Temperature values are in the low to mid 80s for much of the southern half of the CWA, which indicates the potential for extreme heat stress for our northern population, especially for folks who are more susceptible to heat illnesses. This high moisture air may also lead to some patchy fog overnight into Friday. Northeast winds pick up across Lake Superior Friday, leading to cooler temperatures for coastal communities.
640 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A stalled front will linger over southwest Pennsylvania today, then a wave of low pressure will track south of the state Friday.
934 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 High pressure will move down from Canada today and bring dry weather, a good deal of sunshine, and high temperatures right around seasonal normals.