Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
149 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AND UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM. FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE. AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG OF CAPE. HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE. WITH A DIRTY RIDGE. BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE.
AND WITH THE LOW TROP WINDS FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW YESTERDAY'S VALUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. ANTICIPATE DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WITH VEERING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BRIEF BOUT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF DISTURBANCE. MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
405 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW IS STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN CWA. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE DRYING.
421 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER W OK PRODUCING A LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK.
259 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SLOW MOVING GULF COAST SEABREEZE TO ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS OUR INTERIOR ZONES WHERE TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
SYNOPSIS: Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower and middle 80s.
248 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WILL CROSS THE AREA UNDER AN H500 RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY.
400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASED INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER THAN TODAY.
NCEP MODELS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROF COVERING THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. WITH UPPER LOW OVER NRN CO. BROAD TROF COVERS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH CONTINUED E/NE BL FLOW OVER THE CWFA. UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD INTO CNTRL NEB BY LATE AFTN. BEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL COVER NEB AND EXTEND INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY.
425 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE STRATIFORM ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHWEST. EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WIND IS THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLIES CRANKING AT 20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30+ KNOTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KBRO/KHRL. EXPECT THE LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING BEFORE EVEN DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO SCATTER THINGS OUT BETWEEN 14/15Z OR SO WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE.
306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK.
LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL MEAN THE CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/ DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
Two main features of note include upper low across western Nebraska and upper wave and associated bow echo racing northeast into OK. A weak cold front will attempt to sag into the area later Tues and could spark convection along it mainly north of I-70 Tues but support and shear don't look too impressive so will keep chcs low.
SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF AN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. PLUS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACK TO OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER 850MB TEMPS.
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF. THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF SHORT WAVE TROF. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES OUT OF UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. ALONG WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES GENERALLY TO THE EAST AND THE LOWEST TO THE WEST. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH A COLD UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY AND VORTICITY SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. WITH FREEZING LEVELS SO LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CLOUDS. A VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE CONVERGENT AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS FOLLOWING A ROUND OF SOLAR HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS MODEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
458 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED A WEAK TRANSITIONAL RIDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH LONG KEY STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
323 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED A WEAK TRANSITIONAL RIDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN GENERAL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1154 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHICH WILL TAKE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF A KMWM TO KFSD TO PICKSTOWN LINE.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS MORNING. GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
/ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/ RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 4-CORNERS REGION. FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASED INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER THAN TODAY.
EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHWEST FA AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S AND A FEW UPPER 80S.
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
331 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 12Z CYCLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SLOWLY WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. /ISSUED 306 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN HIT THE LOW 90S TOMORROW WITH UPPER 80S UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AVIATION DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE IN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME RAIN COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
WITH STRONG RIDGING NEARLY OVERHEAD ADDITIONAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS FROM OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGHING SETTLES IN.
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
256 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
Upper level shear axis on the northwest periphery of the southeast upper level ridge will set in from southwest to northeast across the CWA today and along with weak surface boundary will be the focus for the more significant shower and thunderstorm chances today.
08Z water vapor shows tropical storm Bill moving north between an upper level ridge over north FL and another upper ridge over the eastern Pacific.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS CLEARLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER HIGH OVER AK ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA. MOST CAMS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
Expect most of the activity to taper off with sunset and the loss of heating, but a few storms may still bubble up overnight if the high precipitable water values across the region find any little bit of lift overnight; from say a weak nocturnal jet.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROLS THE WEATHER. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OVER THE SE CONUS. IN BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CONTROLLED OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF OVER THE SE COAST. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES FOR THU.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO VERY WARM LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. LITTLE CHANGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION.
541 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE RAISED QPF OVER THESE AREA AND 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE COMMON IN THIS HIGHER RISK AREA AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 9-11 INCHES SEEMS REACHABLE.
DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA TO GENERATE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL INDIANA. THE DRY FORECAST WILL COME TO AN END LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FLOODING TRIES TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF PERTURBED/NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND DYNAMICS. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO GRADUAL CLEARING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. ISSUED 605 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 REMAINING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING EXTENDING WEST INTO ALABAMA AND NORTHEASTERN TN. A WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EXTEND WEST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE ATLANTA AREA AND INTO NE ALABAMA INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY MOVING ESE. BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR RIDGE. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M LOWER THAN TODAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THU-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE IT MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS MAINLY THROUGH THE AREA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
SOME HEATING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COLD FRONT NEARING NW CWA AT 17Z. THEN ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WV THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER RIDGE OF TO OUR SE. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH. THE RIDGING THAT HAS PUMPED IN LOTS OF MOISTURE AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE REMNANTS OF "BILL" IS EXPECTED TO GET DRAWN UP THROUGH THIS WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH/EAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIMFIRE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AROUND MAINLY OUR WESTERN RIM THRU THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TIME PERIODS.
Highs will range from the low 80s east, to the upper 80s west.
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING BEFORE WE REACH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT. LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S.
A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE UP TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS A BIT AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE WARMING IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN.
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR LOCAL AREA KEEPS RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
This should allow the higher PWAT air to move back north and bring with it better chances for precipitation. With high dewpoints remaining and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s or perhaps the lower 90s to start the weekend, heat indices will begin to climb into the upper 90s. Also, by late in the weekend, it appears a broad upper ridge will build into the western CONUS.
413 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE COMMON NORTH OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BRISK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NICE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA- E RIDGE AXIS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION DEVELOPS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WHERE A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS.
An upper level ridge to our west will build east over the next several days as Bill departs to the northeast.
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE MOISTURE IN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A FEW MOVING IN TO THE VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AGAIN.
NORTHWEST SECTIONS MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
However a resurgence in development is expected overnight as the low level strengthens and interacts with boundary stretching across the region.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE IS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KCYS WITH A COLD FRONT NEWD THROUGH WESTERN SD. TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING AND MOV EWD OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS FURTHER ON SAT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE POKING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 90S. WE WILL KEEP TMPS FOR NOW INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE EC WOULD INDICATE COOLER. THE RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND 14-16 C AT 700 MB. AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
THAT BEING TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL. ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST THAT IS NUDGING BILL TO THE WEST AS WELL.
WED HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST/NW UNLESS FOG OR STRATUS LINGERS FROM THE EARLY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT STILL DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON WED NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A LITTLE PCPN TO AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE.
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH S/W PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE US. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.
EXPECT A DRY AND WARM WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL BE THE WARMER THAN NORMAL (~5-10 DEGREES) DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN/ STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
203 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. LITTLE CHANGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION.