Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A thin line of light to moderate showers will continue to move across the eastern half of the area today along a cold front.
/issued 328 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ Cold front moved through without much fanfare this morning. Lows tonight should drop into the low to mid 40s for most northern areas, and into the mid to upper 40s most southern areas. Efficient radiative cooling and cold air advection should help temperatures drop into the 30s for roughly the northern half of the area, and into the lower 40s for most of the southern half of the area.
The cold front is moving into the far northern Red River Valley, but is a fairly slow mover. Current guidance may even be underselling how high winds could get Monday as the majority of afternoon forecast soundings show a well mixed boundary layer within an arctic air mass and pressure rises as a strong 1040 mb high pressure squeezes into the region from the west.
256 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Surface analysis early this morning shows a southward-sagging cold front draped over northern MN, extending westward into ND and southern Saskatchewan, associated with a low pressure center just north of Lake Superior. Arctic high pressure resides in northwest Canada, starting to slide southeast behind the front. Aloft, the pattern of deep NOAM trough to the east and a southwestern NOAM ridge will place the Upper Mississippi River Valley solidly in northwest flow. The cold front will slowly drop south across the WFO MPX coverage area today, bringing with it areas of flurries and snow showers mainly this afternoon through tonight.
Will see temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight and closing in on the norm for highs Monday as cold high pressure shifts east of the region and a low level southerly flow becomes reestablished, albeit briefly.
Back door cold front on track to bring chances for mainly light snow across central and eastern portions of the CWA today. Anglin Dry and mild conditions will give way to a cold front that will speed south through the region later this morning through tonight.
with gusty northwest winds producing areas of blowing and drifting snow behind the cold frontal snow band. Upper level trough begins to exit the area Mon. Upper level ridge over western North America shifts east and flattens as eastern Pacific upper trough moves onshore. Upper ridge reaches eastern MT by 84 hours.
145 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Chilly high pressure will extend down into the Carolinas from the north through tonight.
325 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 Areas of light snow linger along and southeast of a cold frontal band from NBDE-KBJI-KFFM-KABR. That cold front will steadily push south-eastward through the late afternoon and continue across southeastern MN duirng the evening hours. The H5 low pressure center and trof axis edges well east of the FA by early evening, so skies should continue to scattered out throughout the evening.
This will bring a chance of precipitation to the north and nudge a cold front through the area bringing much cooler weather back into the area. Any precipitation will start as rain late this evening, then transition to snow (with some potential for freezing rain) as colder air intrudes into the area. Again starting as rain with a changeover to freezing rain/sleet chances then light snow overnight Monday night.
1124 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will maintain dry but cold weather today.
A ridge of high pressure over California will maintain dry and mild conditions today.
131 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 A Canadian cold front moving south from Montana will move south across the Big Horn basin, Johnson, Natrona and Fremont counties and surrounding mountains tonight with light snow becoming more widespread through the evening. Colder temperatures will move in behind the cold front as well.
On Monday, a strong Arctic cold front will approach the Big Country by mid afternoon, then move into the Concho Valley by 6 PM. Expect temperatures to steadily fall during the afternoon behind the cold front.
309 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 Models show a cold front moving across the PAH forecast area Monday morning.
255 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 A deep mean layer trough persists across the upper Midwest. The cold front along its southern flank surged well into the western Caribbean overnight and has nearly cleared eastern Cuba. Cooler, drier weather and gusty northerly breezes prevail behind the front. Temperatures bottomed out in the lower to mid 50s across the island chain and have recovered into the lower and mid 60s.
304 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 An Arctic front is rapidly progressing south across the high plains today and bringing light snow back forecast area. The models do show the front hanging up over the higher terrain to the west, so its conceivable to see the highest snow totals over our far western counties, but even still, an inch of accumulation is not likely. With Arctic air in place, temperatures will fall below zero across northern Nebraska, but stay in the low teens across our far southwest where clouds remain for much of the night.
Tonight and upper low moves into northern MN, with the associated upper trof covering the Dakotas and into the central plains states.
344 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 Current observations show a northerly wind shift moving into the CWA this afternoon, but this is only a prefrontal trough having little effect on weather conditions. A strong cold front with very cold air is still expected to arrive tomorrow. The precip type is difficult to determine with some mix of freezing rain/ sleet/snow expected. The past few days a big concern was freezing drizzle or freezing rain, but models have been trending colder and it now appears the elevated warm layer will erode as (or soon after) the surface temp drops below freezing. Not only this, but the layer from 500-300mb is becoming more saturated allowing for seeder-feeder processes to introduce ice nuclei to the super- cooled saturated lower layer creating a better chance for sleet or snow as opposed to freezing precip.
1048 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 18Z TAF CYCLE Dry northwest flow aloft with sfc lee trough developing by 22Z. Cold front to reach far ne NM by 15/09Z and plunge south and westward thereafter. With a ridge of high pressure west of New Mexico, today's high temperatures will generally be a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday.
121 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds to the north into Monday.
Have only adjusted highs a degree or two for the most part, but there are some indications readings could get a little warmer than forecast for the western CWA as the tongue of mild air moves through before the cold air advection works in. A more organized low across central Manitoba has a cold front extending southwest near the MT/ND/Canadian border. The highly meridional pattern in place at the beginning of the period will gradually break down as energy over the Pacific Ocean sweeps away the western conus ridge.
1257 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will bring dry weather tonight through most of Monday.
1231 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will maintain dry but cold weather today.
252 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 A cold front will bring widespread light snow from east to west through tonight. As snow is ending some areas may see areas of freezing drizzle at times. Dry and cold conditions are then expected for Monday as high pressure moves overhead.
Highs will struggle to reach freezing but they will come close across our west. Another upper level low will approach the region Monday morning.
A ridge of high pressure over California will maintain dry and mild conditions through the rest of today.
Snow showers continue south but should end over the next 1-3 hours as Arctic high pressure continues to build southward. Lingering clouds east on the eastern periphery of the high and look to linger for a bit. A cold front and associated snow are quickly pushing south across the area. A cold front across southern Saskatchewan and Alberta as of 09 UTC ahead of the next Arctic high pressure system will rapidly propagate from north to south across western and central North Dakota through the morning.
135 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
Behind this main band, winds have increased due to an area of high pressure in southern Canada, continuing to strengthen, leading to strong high rises in the Dakotas. After tonight, some residual snow showers, especially in west central Wisconsin, will pivot across the region with an enhanced area of warm air advection long the deep trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes.
However, temperatures this morning will be below freezing in the mid to upper 20s. Temperatures will once again drop off quickly to right around freezing again tonight. Main concern is still focused on ice/snow possibility for After one more day of mild weather on Monday, a strong Arctic cold front will move into west central Texas Monday evening, starting around 6-7 pm. Temperatures will start to fall below freezing across the Big Country before midnight,and continue to rapidly drop through the night.
bringing a band of light to moderate snow associated with the second wave and its associated cold front into the NW KILX CWA late this evening. NAM time-height cross-sections indicate a 3-4 hour window of time when deep-layer omega is maximized and the highest snowfall rates will be achieved. with the highest totals perhaps close to 4 inches focused north of the I-74 corridor.
Strong cold front will move into far northeast Oklahoma around 12Z Monday with gusty north winds increasing through the morning hours.
As stated, some flurry/light snow activity is headed our way with this arctic push, with the surface possibly cooling down fast enough to outpace the cooling of the elevated warm layer, potentially giving us a very brief period of sleet or even freezing rain as we go from sprinkle/rain potential to flurry/snow potential. The cold front will barrel south quick enough to taper off our snow chances rather quickly and less than half an inch is expected on the Nebraska side.
The fog will lift by late morning as mostly sunny skies accompany an upper ridge. Additional low lying locations remain in the fog threat this morning, especially the Lower Treasure Valley and portions of eastern Oregon (Burns and Baker City). Dry conditions expected today under the ridge, with the threat of fog returning again tonight. The next forecast challenge is the arrival of the cold front/trough on Monday night.
Upper trough axis, upstream, will sharpen as it moves eastward through the taf period.
345 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure has shifted a little farther ewd today. now centered from the ern Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley to the lower Mississippi Valley. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place over the ern 2/3 of the country with several weak perturbations noted nearby and farther upstream, although our airmass is so dry only some mid-level cloud cover is occurring at this time across the far nern zones from the closest disturbance.
245 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will be maintained across the western U.
243 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure exits tonight. Low pressure drags a cold front across Monday night, followed by arctic air for mid week. High pressure retreats into New England tonight, giving way to developing sw flow aloft ahead of the next system. This will probably allow temps to level off, especially combined with the increase in low level moisture ahead of developing warm front late. Given how dry the low level airmass, much of this may fall as virga, though do expect some flurries/light snow for a time early Monday morning, perhaps as far south as the Kentucky counties. The warm front quickly shifts into western Pennsylvania, allowing for a brief lull. A cold front will push through the region Monday night and stall just east of the area.
Snow associated with this cold front is likely to start during the early afternoon hours for the tri-state area.
This is thanks to a strong upper level low dropping out of Canada and settling across the Great Lakes region. Thus, the forecast is still on track for a strong cold front pushing southward and through the southern Plains Monday.
Starting around 10-12Z Monday, a cold front will work its way south through all the TAF sites. In the wake of the cold front, winds will shift to northerly with sustained winds of 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Low bkn/ovc cigs will move in toward the end of the TAF period in the wake of the cold front with MVFR cigs possible. Further updates with the timing of the low clouds will be made in the next TAF update. Comfort will be short-lived as arctic cold front late tonight and Monday morning brings much colder air. Highs Monday expected to remain below freezing across northern half of forecast area, with only far southeastern Texas Panhandle rising above 35 degrees Fahrenheit.
Temperatures ahead and immediately behind the front may remain above freezing this evening and tonight allowing a brief mix of wintry precipitation before rapidly changing to all snow in the wake of the front.
308 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a well defined upper ridge situated over the western CONUS extending into British Columbia with with a vort max dropping down the front side preparing to to push into the lower 48. hefty Pacific riding up and over the ridge was spilling into the northern High Plains. low pressure was centered over northern MN with attendant arctic front straddling the U. Aforementioned vort max dropping into the lower 48 this evening will induce synoptic scale ascent with light snow developing along axis of mid-layer ageostrophic forcing.
Snow is expected to arrive in our western counties during the late afternoon, and eastern counties in the evening, as WAA increases ahead of clipper low pressure system.
VFR conditions expected to prevail ahead of strong cold front that will start to affect northern Oklahoma terminals around 09Z. This low level reflection should dissipate/drift northward ahead of strong cold front that is still progd to enter northern Oklahoma late tonight. A cold front will arrive to northern Oklahoma early Monday morning bringing winds to the north.
Tonight, as a trough approaches, clouds around the 5-8 kft level will start to increase from west to east and become broken at all sites.
253 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday for a continuation of dry weather.
An upper ridge and low level offshore flow across Western Washington will result in dry mild weather today, with record to near-record temperatures. An upper ridge will bring mostly sunny and mild weather today.
1251 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. Highs will range from the upper teens north to the lower 20s south. The lowest temperatures tonight will be across eastern portions of the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover early in the evening and also where there is the greater snowpack.
This energy is expected to close off an upper low west of the Great Lakes Monday helping drive more Arctic air well southward into the U.
1207 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will build southeast across the area today and move northeast to Maine by this evening extending a ridge southwest into the local area.
Upper level trough begins to exit the area Mon. Upper level ridge over western North America shifts east and flattens as eastern Pacific upper trough moves onshore. Upper ridge reaches eastern MT by 84 hours.
252 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 Surface analysis shows cold front is moving into northeast Wyoming and the Northern High Plains this afternoon. Per cross sections and forecast soundings, there may be some freezing drizzle on this initial push of light precipitation as temps in the moist layer hold slightly warmer than -10C until about 12Z.
1215 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds to the north into Monday.
The center of Arctic high pressure will move eastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, continuing to keep a grip on the wx across Mid TN. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
A strong cold front is expected to enter the Panhandles around 6 AM Monday morning.
This low level reflection should dissipate/drift northward ahead of strong cold front that is still progd to enter northern Oklahoma late tonight. A cold front will arrive to northern Oklahoma early Monday morning bringing winds to the north.
313 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will build in and crest just north of the area tonight into Monday.
242 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 Essentially a blue bird day across eastern Utah and western Colorado today as a ridge of high pressure remains amplified over the western CONUS. Current temperatures are generally 2 to 6 degrees warmer than this time yesterday thanks to the abundance of sunshine under dry northwesterly flow. Otherwise, it'll be a quiet evening under mostly clear skies, though mid and high level clouds will increase over northwestern Colorado as a cold front dives south along the Front Range.
A strong cold front will bring a wind shift to the N-NE and the onset of gusty winds toward the end of this TAF period. As this process takes place, a strong cold front will dive south towards the forecast area, arriving during the day Monday. Much of this appears to be overdone as much of the low-level moisture will mix east ahead of the front and we never really saturate the layer from the top down. Temperature profiles by the time this could develop will be below freezing so freezing drizzle or perhaps a few flakes of snow may develop but chances look to be so slim that a dry forecast will continue.
NHC is giving this system a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours. The next thing to look at that will play a part in what is to come will be the synoptic trough located over southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi this morning. This trough will continue to sink southward and stall near the gulf coast. This trough is also what is causing the weakness in the mid-upper level ridging that was over the area yesterday. As the tropical system moves northwest, very deep tropical moisture will be forced northward on its east side into the stalled trough where plenty of lift will cause an elongated area of sh/ts to break out initiating from the tropical cyclone over southeast Texas to the Florida panhandle.
Wind speeds will be strongest today in the far west near the Colorado border as a leeside trough starts to develop in eastern Colorado. There should be some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the lee trough axis well to our west in Colorado, and given how weak the upper level flow pattern is, none of this convective activity should reach the KS border through tonight. There is a better opportunity for more widespread convection along the leeside trough from eastern New Mexico/western Texas Panhandle up through far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas.
High pressure centered over eastern Nebraska and a dry northwest flow aloft were producing clear skies, light winds and seasonably cool conditions across the local forecast area. At 3 am, temperatures were in the lower to mid 50s across the forecast area. High pressure migrating east over the region will provide another seasonably cool and dry day over the forecast area. Tonight, there may be a few high clouds, otherwise conditions will be similar to those found early this morning with lows again in the lower to mid 50s.
, with reinforcing high pressure air masses coming down from cntrl Canada Thu and again on Fri. Afternoon highs today will only be in the lower 80s, upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. Overnight lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 60s, but upper 50s to around 60 degree across the higher elevations of the mid state including the Cumberland Plateau Region. 31 (Sat-Tue) Cooler than normal temperatures are expected this weekend with a big ridge out west and a trough over the eastern states.
1010 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front will drop southeastward across the mid-Atlantic region today, before stalling over southeast Virginia tonight. High pressure will quickly follow tomorrow night and persist right on into the weekend. Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday across much of our region with humidity values on the downward trend as well. High temperatures will be mainly in the middle 80s with low temperatures tonight dropping down into the lower 60s. One of them an upper level disturbance dropping out of the Lower Great Lakes region into the mid-Atlantic region. The other factor will be a firm ridge of high pressure that will build in from the northwest about the same time as the disturbance moves southeastward.
Otherwise, winds will remain northeasterly and easterly around 10 kt today behind a cold front.
959 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Notable air mass change today behind departing cold front from early this morning. Cooler and drier weather will persist through the week. Isolated showers are possible today with upper level trough making its way across the North Country. This will be a cooler drier air mass with dewpoints dropping to more comfortable temps, low to mid 50s. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, only reaching the lower to mid 70s. Will continue with chance for showers as upper level trough slowly pushes eastward across Northern New York and Vermont. Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly cooler than normal with the upper level trough overhead.
An upper ridge is over the region with mostly northwest flow aloft. Expect thunderstorm development again this afternoon mainly across the higher terrain and the eastern half of the CWA. Temperatures today are expected to be almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday behind the cold front. Rain/thunderstorm chances will continue across the area with the best chances along and around the higher terrain.
Scattered thunderstorms developing mainly over the higher terrain this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms in the Snake Plain.
Cold front is currently working its way through the terminals this morning with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as drier airmass moves in. Winds will remain light as high pressure encompasses the area. The true cold front is along the I-44 corridor marked by noticeably drier air and this will continue southward today.
932 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A trough of low pressure will cross the local area later today and will be followed by a second trough on Thursday.
After a pre-frontal trough kicked up showers and a few thunderstorms overnight, the KHTX radar is quiet right now. The lingering pre-frontal trough boundary has kept the majority of the low clouds at bay, but as it shifts southward, those who saw rainfall overnight will have the greatest potential for low clouds/fog. The cold front itself is still to our north and will move into the TN Valley this morning. Reinforcing our cooler and drier air, we will have mostly clear skies that will let temps drop into the lower 60s.
A weak storm system will bring cooler temperatures and a chance for some very light rain late tonight and Thursday.
1030 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The cold front is currently over extreme north Mississippi and will push more to the south into Central Mississippi by this evening. Current forecast is on track to linger the chance of showers and thunderstorms along and south of the front this afternoon while a northeast wind north of the boundary provides a cooler and drier advection.
1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cold front now located roughly along I-20 and movg swd this morning. /issued 645 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ A cold front moving south across the region will maintain a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across area terminals today. Water vapor is showing the upper ridge out West and the long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest with NW flow aloft.